# FWD - Fleetwood Limited



## clowboy (27 April 2005)

*FWD*

Any one have any thoughts on this stock?

Tried to sell today becuase it is killing my portfolio but it opened below my sell price (can't do at market with account).

Doesn't seem to have a bottom, any thoughts?


----------



## markrmau (27 April 2005)

*Re: FWD*

This is by no means a recomendation etc.....

Looking at the intraday graph, the low $6.80's price was rejected by the market. Are you sure it is not near the bottom of its fall? An 8.2% 100% franked yield should give it a bottom sometime soon. It's not like clf with dodgy (? by the sounds of other comments) management or a realestate company subject to massive drops in land value.

Of course the chart looks appalling but there are a lot of XSO companies who have been hammered recently - perhaps unjustifiably.

I might look at buying some myself - if I see further evidence that $6.8 is rejected by the market.

If you want to sell, just stick in your sell order for $6.50 and you will get whatever it opens at tomorrow (assuming you aren't trying to offload $100k worth)


----------



## clowboy (27 April 2005)

*Re: FWD*

yea the whole intraday $6.80 happened yesterday as well (but at $7.10 or somthing) so I'm not so sure.

In terms of yield yea it's great but I guess the concern is that it is coming mainly from the special dividends (otherwise yield is around 3%).

I thought this stock was a real goer but it's really starting to let me down and I've already held on way longer than I should have.

Shrug


----------



## RichKid (27 April 2005)

*Re: FWD*

Just my view but it looks like the end of the trend. Complex head and shoulders or multi top, eitherway it's a top reversal. Broken through all support lines that I can see. Might be a pullback to exit on but with the current market sentiment I doubt it. Depth suggest it'll gap down again. Falling on high volume too. 

I thought the fundamentals of this co were good but saw it too late so didn't enter. Price can always get ahead of itself and when it falls the momentum can push it beyond a 'fair' value too. Maybe it'll settle soon and range. Shame to see that nice long trend end.


----------



## TjamesX (28 April 2005)

*Re: FWD*

The fundamentals of this co were the reason for year in year out rises in the share price over the last few years, and these don't seem to have changed a great deal so it definitly is a bit of ?? over the sudden dramatic fall. I actually purchased some above $8 last week after I thought the general market would rise. The general market did and FWD went the other way - in hindsight as soon as this happened I thought something was up, and should have done something about it, but I held for another day or two until I decided on a discretionary sell at $7.58 - purely technical. phew

looking at the chart I think its a bit of a worry that volume has been rising as the price has moved south. Around 6.80 there seems to be some support (bounced off this about a year ago) but apart from that there's not a lot.

????

TJ


----------



## GreatPig (28 April 2005)

*Re: FWD*

I bought some back in late Dec '04 for $8.33 when the price was around my base trend line. It subsequently oscillated sideways through the trend line, and I sold them again at the end of March for $8.14.

This decision was based purely on the chart. While the price wasn't really falling much then, I decided the chart wasn't showing any signs of another uptrend so I'd be better off putting the money elsewhere.

Perhaps lucky timing in this case, but I would have sold anyway when the price dropped below $8.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## stockman (28 April 2005)

*Re: FWD*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> This is by no means a recomendation etc.....
> 
> Looking at the intraday graph, the low $6.80's price was rejected by the market. Are you sure it is not near the bottom of its fall? An 8.2% 100% franked yield should give it a bottom sometime soon. It's not like clf with dodgy (? by the sounds of other comments) management or a realestate company subject to massive drops in land value.
> 
> ...





8.2% fully franked yield? i just looked on netwealth and dividend is only a little over 2.5%. Earnings yield is 8.2%. Stock i believe may still continue to do well but if it misses any targets it will get hurt.


----------



## clowboy (28 April 2005)

*Re: FWD*

stockman,

Dividend for FY05 (EST) is 23cps fully franked
the company is paying an aditional 40cps fully franked as special dividends subject to no acusitions taking place.

this would not factor into the yield in comsec's reports


----------



## TjamesX (3 May 2005)

*Re: FWD*

Holy gamboodas....

Down 10% today, currently at $6.... a fall of about 28% in the last week!! There has been no news provided by the company, ASX queried yesterday as to price movements and asked if the company was complying with its continous disclosure requirements..... FWD responded vaguely that it had nothing to report and there was no revisions to previously provided forecasts - yet. Obviously some shareholders think otherwise

I really considering buying into the pain - need to look at reports more closely, but I'm reluctant to move until whatever is going on surfaces

From chart i think next possible support is $5.50, thats if it does not bounce off $6

TJ


----------



## clowboy (3 May 2005)

*Re: FWD*

Seems to have stabalized around $6 mark but how long it will last I don't know.  The stock seems to move in leaps and bounds I Had to keep revising my sell order becuase it kept moving so fast.

Im finally out of this stock and boy did it cost me.

I may look at re-entering at around $4.50 if it falls that low (I think it may) depending on any anouncments that come out.

I really thought this was a good company with good managment and can't understand it's freefall, maybee people are just cutting there loses??????


----------



## Investor (3 May 2005)

*Re: FWD*

I do not hold. I am only guessing that the price fall, is because its sales are for products that involve very discretionary spending and has either fallen or will fall.

A profit downgrade could soon occur (but I am only guessing). Take a look at the company's reply to the ASX lodged yesterday. 

I do not like that kind of reply.


----------



## clowboy (3 May 2005)

*Re: FWD*

Slowing heading back up....for now

Quote form the West Australian

" Rumor of the day

Amid a booming mining sector Perth-based donga specialist, Fleetwood, has seen its share price slide almost 20% in the past three weeks.  The fall prompted the stock exchange to ask questions.  the company reckons it is finalising its march quarter results but the market talk is rocketing costs will force the company to downgrade its profit forecast.  Fleetwood fell 50c to $6.70"


----------



## clowboy (3 May 2005)

*Re: FWD*

Investor,

It would seem that the market doesn't either.


----------



## markrmau (3 May 2005)

*Re: FWD*

The afr had an article today saying that it is because of rumoured profit downgrade.

I don't see any reason for this rumour and sp reaction. If anything, sales in WA should be booming because of all the construction huts they supply to the mining industry.

However, the market is almost always right, and the saying goes that you should never try to catch a falling knife.


----------



## Investor (3 May 2005)

*Re: FWD*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> ....I don't see any reason for this rumour and sp reaction. If anything, sales in WA should be booming because of all the construction huts they supply to the mining industry.
> 
> However, the market is almost always right, and the saying goes that you should never try to catch a falling knife.




If the rumour was unfounded, the reply to the ASX query could have gone something like:

"Rumours are unfounded. We are on track." 

But, I am only guessing. Also, I am a simple man.


----------



## seaurchin (10 May 2005)

*FWD..fleetwood i know nothing just watchlist it for a while*

fwd ...has been falling to way off highs...and one of my brokers is happy to hold it for yield. investmnet.cheers...isold out of CLF it was bad investmnet the only loss for the year! very large loss thou ..did not sell early as i usually sell ..the company kept saying profit on track??? sorry if others followed.


----------



## Julia (11 May 2005)

*Re: FWD..fleetwood i know nothing just watchlist it for a while*

Likewise.  My broker recommended FWD about a month ago and it has dropped sharply ever since.  I have some concerns about the influence of rising petrol costs in the caravan market.  Am advised to hold for the upside and yield.  Any other comments?

Julia


----------



## GreatPig (12 May 2005)

*Re: FWD..fleetwood i know nothing just watchlist it for a while*

Julia,

Lesson #1: do your own research and don't blindly follow the advice of others - whether they're licenced to give advice or not.

Here's a chart of Fleetwood. I can't offer you any advice, but if it were me, I'd be ignoring the past (since it's not changeable) and looking to the future. The chart shows prices in a bit of a rally right now, so I'd be waiting to see what happens before deciding what to do.

To me, a strong drop below about $5.70 would be a worry, otherwise I'd probably hold.

This is just general comment based on my own situation and trading method, and should not be construed as any type of advice for your situation.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Julia (12 May 2005)

*Re: FWD..fleetwood i know nothing just watchlist it for a while*

Hi GP

Thanks.  Appreciate your comments and thanks for the chart.

Julia


----------



## GreatPig (26 March 2006)

Another chart of FWD, as Julia requested in another thread.

Not the sort of stock I'd be holding right now from a capital growth point of view, but I don't know what their dividends are like.

And I don't know that any sort of trailing stop would have kept you in the stock from the drop in May last year till now (or even till Dec 05), as it's been oscillating sideways with relatively large drops on the down-sides of the oscillations.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Basilisk (16 June 2006)

I was surprised today to see it close 59 cents higher.

I know it's been a good day today for the market but a more than 9% increase for this one comes as a bit of a shock.


----------



## noirua (29 April 2010)

Basilisk said:


> I was surprised today to see it close 59 cents higher.
> 
> I know it's been a good day today for the market but a more than 9% increase for this one comes as a bit of a shock.




Nearly 4 years have passed since the last post on Fleetwood and it appears a shame as they pay a high dividend and have grown and grown. The company operates in Australasia in the caravan business and more up market running of businesses in similar sectors for small to major companies.


----------



## noirua (29 April 2010)

noirua said:


> Nearly 4 years have passed since the last post on Fleetwood and it appears a shame as they pay a high dividend and have grown and grown. The company operates in Australasia in the caravan business and more up market running of businesses in similar sectors for small to major companies.




Link to Fleetwood Corporations' The Bull's insight into the company at:  http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=10845


----------



## noirua (3 June 2010)

noirua said:


> Link to Fleetwood Corporations' The Bull's insight into the company at:  http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=10845




Fair enough, the big 7.5% yield is only because of the dividend stock buy-back; at least the directors take their shares as well. Down a Dollar from highs The Bulls' confident report on Fleetwood stands.


----------



## Laohu (3 June 2010)

Hey noirua, you noticed they don't seem to put the stockval "stock of the week" in The Bull anymore? Getting a bit light on content don't you think?

Cracking good fundamentals imo - wouldn't surprise me if ROE had a few of these up his sleeve 

Caravans and grey nomads are good for business, and I don't suppose the already established mines are going to close tomorrow, so FWD should still get paid for their accommodation already in place, and grow a bit more too, so not doom and gloom by any means - to my mind in any case!


----------



## noirua (4 June 2010)

Yes Laohu, the mining sector is a continued key for Fleetwood and I suppose the uplift in the shareprice in the last 12 months needs to be looked at closely, and the PE Ratio. The dividend looks as if it will closely follow profits with the lower cover; has to keep on running.


----------



## noirua (19 June 2010)

Starting to takeoff again are FWD after the market setback and thoughts on the Henry proposals impacting their supply of cabins etc., to the mining industry.
Set up well with subsidiaries Camec Group, Coromal Caravans, Windsor Caravans and Flexiglass Challenge in the Caravan, spares, trailers and ute camper add-ons.


----------



## noirua (11 August 2010)

Thumping big dividends as Fleetwood Corporation power on and I'm still content to hold and add a few more here and there.  Price now up to $9.95 with a dividend of 6.6%, likely to be raised further in 2010.

FWD have just purchased the vibrant BRB Modular Pty Limited for $56.5m - issued 2.5 million shares and paid $31.5m in cash.


----------



## Julia (11 August 2010)

Etrade are quoting the dividend at 4.6%, fully franked.  Where does your 6.6% come from?  Are you including the franking?


----------



## noirua (12 August 2010)

Julia said:


> Etrade are quoting the dividend at 4.6%, fully franked.  Where does your 6.6% come from?  Are you including the franking?




Hi Julia, It comes from http://www.tradingroom.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=fwd
I never include the franking as everyone doesn't get a return of the franking.
Etrade are wrong once again - it's best to divide the dividend by the latest stock price = 6.633%


----------



## noirua (30 August 2010)

Some tipsters still rate Fleetwood as a sell, mainly because they rely on shareholders re-investing their dividends at a discount to keep up the present rate of return.
Fair enough, the FWD turnover was down but they did magnificantly well to improve profits and raise dividends.
I think, imho that is, that FWD will get back to a higher turnover as the mining sector regains confidence.  Thus profits should / may, stride forward into 2011 and prove that the stock is highly under-rated.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (30 August 2010)

noirua said:


> Some tipsters still rate Fleetwood as a sell, mainly because they rely on shareholders re-investing their dividends at a discount to keep up the present rate of return.




Hi Noirua,

What do you mean by the above statment. how does the drp help them "keep up the present rate of return"


----------



## robusta (30 August 2010)

These gurs seem pretty good at the right price, nice high constant ROE, exposed to a real growth area as well


----------



## noirua (31 August 2010)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Hi Noirua,
> 
> What do you mean by the above statment. how does the drp help them "keep up the present rate of return"




Hi, Most of the profits of FWD are paid out in dividends, giving a high yield for the stock. The PE ratio is over 15.  Directors and shareholders support the saving plan that allows shares to be bought at a discount. If this support dropped dramatically then FWD would have to lower the dividend.
As mentioned by The Bull under stock of the week, "the shares are not cheap". Two analysts at the Bull have rated the stock a sell.


----------



## noirua (9 September 2010)

One of my favourite good yielding stocks are Fleetwood Corporation. Profits ploughed onwards due to a tight reign on costs. The mining sector looks reasonably bouyant, well not bouyant, but improving gradually and that should advantage FWD. Now over $10.00 a share.


----------



## noirua (20 September 2010)

noirua said:


> One of my favourite good yielding stocks are Fleetwood Corporation. Profits ploughed onwards due to a tight reign on costs. The mining sector looks reasonably bouyant, well not bouyant, but improving gradually and that should advantage FWD. Now over $10.00 a share.




Now over $11 are this caravan mobile home company that is building up 'running and building small mining villages' for workers in Australia and New Zealand. One of my favourites on the fringes of the mining recovery.


----------



## noirua (2 October 2010)

Fleetwood Corporation made increased returns on lower turnover last year. The upside could be, if they manage a forecast increase in turnover whilst maintaining margins. A yield around 6.3c and earning yield at 6.8% depends on re-investment of dividends and continued support by directors for it.
Lower interest rates could increase interest in high yield Aussie stocks from home and abroad.


----------



## Ian (2 November 2010)

Noirua, 
Now over $12 and still looking strong. 
Do you have a view of how far they can go?. 
I have held for a very long time and don't intend to sell but I would be very interested in your view of how far this run can go. 
cheers
Ian


----------



## noirua (4 January 2011)

Ian said:


> Noirua,
> Now over $12 and still looking strong.
> Do you have a view of how far they can go?.
> I have held for a very long time and don't intend to sell but I would be very interested in your view of how far this run can go.
> ...



A bit late replying Ian, but I tend to see a tipsters, The Bull at share of the week a while back, original target of $13.50 reached in the short term. The half year result will be important to pour over.

One of the important profits will be the near two thousand unit residency at Karratha Resource for Woodside. Boom town area is this with house prices and units sky high: http://www.localpropertyindex.com/Search/ForSale/All+Properties/Karratha
Have you got $12 million for some of these, good grief.

My view is that FWD will profit well from this mining village which I last read is close to full capacity.
If the rest of Fleetwood carry on in the same vein then I'm expecting a bumper year.

Any downside, not much really; a few director changes and most of the profits are paid in dividends relying on the share purchase scheme that runs at a 2.5% discount. 

At $13 FWD is on a 5.3% yield and may be one funds will still accumalate. Good dividend that increases every year - so far anyway.


----------



## fanger (15 March 2011)

I picked up FWD today for $11.20 and no sooner as I bought it the market crashes 140 points.  Only down a couple of percent but couldn't have picked a worst time to buy it.


----------



## Julia (15 March 2011)

fanger said:


> I picked up FWD today for $11.20 and no sooner as I bought it the market crashes 140 points.  Only down a couple of percent but couldn't have picked a worst time to buy it.




So what were your criteria for buying it?


----------



## fanger (16 March 2011)

Julia said:


> So what were your criteria for buying it?




Its a well run business with a great dividend and growing earnings.


----------



## noirua (21 March 2011)

fanger said:


> Its a well run business with a great dividend and growing earnings.




$11.20 looks a good buying point and well down on the $14.30 price not long ago. Well done mate, always difficult to buy in a rapidly declining stock.


----------



## matty77 (30 March 2011)

Any thoughts on this stock right now? I was reading an article the other day about Woodside and they were mentioned in regards to supply accommodation units for the offshore sites. Seems it could be a winner?

thoughts of current price, still worth having a dip?


----------



## noirua (12 April 2011)

matty77 said:


> Any thoughts on this stock right now? I was reading an article the other day about Woodside and they were mentioned in regards to supply accommodation units for the offshore sites. Seems it could be a winner?
> 
> thoughts of current price, still worth having a dip?




Not much has been said about the Queensland side of the business or New Zealand - could this be a reason for caution? Dividend is set to rise as the company has indicated as such because of asset purchases.  For once FWD has loans to pay-off.
One part of me says buy and the other, wait and see.


----------



## fanger (12 April 2011)

I sold out a couple of days ago I think its heading south but I'll be buying back in again.


----------



## EoinCuinn (16 April 2011)

Excellent thread

I bought in at $11.80 before it started dropping, but our hold is for long term investment, so I tend not to pay heaps of attention to the share price.

The underlying intrinsic value looks good and stable, which prompted the purchase.


----------



## noirua (13 June 2011)

EoinCuinn said:


> Excellent thread
> 
> I bought in at $11.80 before it started dropping, but our hold is for long term investment, so I tend not to pay heaps of attention to the share price.
> 
> The underlying intrinsic value looks good and stable, which prompted the purchase.




I waited patiently on FWD as I thought tipsters comments were to hold and sell some months back. They were wrong for quite awhile but eventually most were spot on; you can't do much when most of the buffaloes are charging towards the cliff edge.

Last week I could see the connection with the resource sector was bearing down on Fleetwood and not helped by interests in QLD and NZ. Now has the worm started to consider a turn? - If not, at least the high yield looks safer and dividend cover improving.
One to very carefully monitor.


----------



## cudderbean (13 June 2011)

noirua said:


> I waited patiently on FWD as I thought tipsters comments were to hold and sell some months back. They were wrong for quite awhile but eventually most were spot on; you can't do much when most of the buffaloes are charging towards the cliff edge.
> 
> Last week I could see the connection with the resource sector was bearing down on Fleetwood and not helped by interests in QLD and NZ. Now has the worm started to consider a turn? - If not, at least the high yield looks safer and dividend cover improving.
> One to very carefully monitor.




2 of my shortish (5 and 10 day) down trendlines have been broken upwards, but as confirmation I'd like to see at least one Guppy CBL breached (he recommends 2 I think) before it may be rising up out of the trough.

Good luck, mate.


----------



## Country Lad (13 June 2011)

A little way to go yet for the CBL break.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## noirua (18 June 2011)

EoinCuinn said:


> Excellent thread
> 
> I bought in at $11.80 before it started dropping, but our hold is for long term investment, so I tend not to pay heaps of attention to the share price.
> 
> The underlying intrinsic value looks good and stable, which prompted the purchase.




Not forgetting that much of FWD's profits come from buying letts at Resources Villages such as Woodside's and then renting appartments. This gives a higher risk flavour from the high risk resources sector.


----------



## Country Lad (18 June 2011)

After this $10.00 one, there is not a strong support level.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## noirua (16 November 2011)

Well, there was a support level at $10 afterall and FWD stand at over $12 now. From Caravans and mobile homes right up to running and letting mining villages.


----------



## fanger (18 January 2012)

FWD preformed well of the last quarter of the year. I'm hoping I'll be able to pick this back up some time this year around the $10 to $10.50 mark.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (20 August 2012)

Share price taking a hammering today, dropping more than 7% at the moment on a result which, IMO, doesn't look too bad for them.  Pretty much flat EPS growth (increase of 0.75% diluted EPS compared to the previous financial year) and still with a ROE exceeding 20% (slightly down on the previous financial year).

Seems to me to be an overreaction and I'm looking for an appropriate entry point now.


----------



## skc (20 August 2012)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Share price taking a hammering today, dropping more than 7% at the moment on a result which, IMO, doesn't look too bad for them.  Pretty much flat EPS growth (increase of 0.75% diluted EPS compared to the previous financial year) and still with a ROE exceeding 20% (slightly down on the previous financial year).
> 
> Seems to me to be an overreaction and I'm looking for an appropriate entry point now.




Seems pretty fully priced to me given flat EPS, falling revenue and PE ~13. A large part of FWD is pretty cyclical and I don't know if there's much visibility into the long term contract / earning profile for their accommodation villages. 

Had a short on these near the open and managed to take a total of 4c. The position "should" been in profit at 100 ticks. Such an awesome trade


----------



## fanger (7 September 2012)

FWD has held up reasonably well considering most mining services having been hammered recently. Still waiting to get back in, it just never seems to get cheap enough.


----------



## PortfolioPlus (2 October 2012)

Fanger said:
"WD has held up reasonably well considering most mining services having been hammered recently. Still waiting to get back in, it just never seems to get cheap enough"

Yes it has...at $10.25 I've finally established an entry point to this company after waiting for 18 months or so.
It is run excellently by managers with skin in the game and a good div yield to boot. Happy now to wait and wait as the accommodation blocks in WA and Gladstone become almost annuity style revenue earners. Plus the grey nomads will begin buying caravans again.


----------



## fanger (2 October 2012)

Yes I got back in aswell


----------



## benadem (16 October 2012)

*FWD*

Can anyone explain to me the reason for the current FWD sell-off? It seems totally illogical for such a successful and fundamentally sound company.


----------



## prawn_86 (16 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



benadem said:


> Can anyone explain to me the reason for the current FWD sell-off? It seems totally illogical for such a successful and fundamentally sound company.




Hi Benadem,

Welcome to ASF.

Why do you think this is a fundamentally sound company? 

I dont know much about FWD, but at current prices their dividend is >7% so it must be looking tempting for a lot of people. I will have to check EPS growth and dividend stabilty, and then look for a turnaround if i am to invest


----------



## tinhat (16 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



benadem said:


> Can anyone explain to me the reason for the current FWD sell-off? It seems totally illogical for such a successful and fundamentally sound company.




I guess it is caught up with the mining services sector sentiment. It's on my watch list. Good dividend.


----------



## benadem (16 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



prawn_86 said:


> Hi Benadem,
> 
> Welcome to ASF.
> 
> ...






Zero long-term debt, consistent earnings growth over 7 years, steady sales growth, high cash flow, high interest cover, 23% and consistent ROE, etc.  and of course a high dividend.


----------



## Ves (16 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



benadem said:


> Zero long-term debt, consistent earnings growth over 7 years, steady sales growth, high cash flow, high interest cover, 23% and consistent ROE, etc.  and of course a high dividend.



How does it usually perform outside of boom periods?  Do you know what its metrics look like when the mining cycle has reached its peak and started to decline?   

Current pay-out ratio is about 83%.  The ROE of around 23% that you quoted (I prefer ROIC btw) if it is maintainable on new capital implies a growth rate of between 3% and 4% going forward. If revenue grows at this rate, but margins contract in a material way the bottom line will be hit hard.

I won't say I have looked at this in any detail and this is back-of-the-envelope type musing, but with the risk of contractionary economic conditions (not saying this will happen) dampening the tailwinds of the last 5-7 years in the industry I would say that this is still pretty much fully priced.

The lack of any margin of safety at the moment does not justify the price going into the medium term IMO.


----------



## white_goodman (16 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



benadem said:


> Zero long-term debt, consistent earnings growth over 7 years, steady sales growth, high cash flow, high interest cover, 23% and consistent ROE, etc.  and of course a *high dividend*.




dividend yield is getting higher 

big support level here atm looking at a yahoo finance chart

ill wait before i get in


----------



## McLovin (16 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



Ves said:


> How does it usually perform outside of boom periods?  Do you know what its metrics look like when the mining cycle has reached its peak and started to decline?




Here's EBIT margin from 2003 to 2012...

10.02%	12.42%	10.33%	12.27%	12.94%	14.64%	14.58%	18.80%	16.01%	18.67%

Going further back

2000 9.2%
1999 12.2%
1998 10.5%

So I guess somewhere around 9-12% is about right (which makes sense over the long run). Taking this years revenue, you'd end up with ebit with a range of 36.5m-48m as compared to 91m.

Margins mean revert, as you know. We've seen it with mining services companies, given FWD's exposure to mining it will be interesting to see what happens. I wouldn't be getting involved at the moment though. With a high payout ratio, surely the divie will be under pressure if/when margins start to revert.


----------



## Ves (16 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



McLovin said:


> Here's EBIT margin from 2003 to 2012...
> 
> 10.02%	12.42%	10.33%	12.27%	12.94%	14.64%	14.58%	18.80%	16.01%	18.67%
> 
> ...



You've pretty much nailed it on the head.  I'm glad someone took the time and had a look below the surface and answered the questions at the top of my post. I deliberately wrote them because I think if you bother to try and answer them with most stocks with cyclically high margins they will allude to some of the major issues one needs to consider.  It could take years for mean reversion to play out in some of course, but I agree it will happen eventually and unless you have a crystal ball it would be wise to tread with complete caution at the moment.  It's not worth the risk.


----------



## Klogg (16 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



McLovin said:


> Here's EBIT margin from 2003 to 2012...
> 
> 10.02%	12.42%	10.33%	12.27%	12.94%	14.64%	14.58%	18.80%	16.01%	18.67%
> 
> ...




Wow - I took a look at this stock and simply thought the margins won't hold up, but that's where my analysis stopped (yeah, basically what everyone else mentioned). I never would have thought to take a look at it from a cyclical standpoint over such a long period of time...

Definitely learnt something today 
Thanks


----------



## McLovin (16 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



Ves]It could take years for mean reversion to play out in some of course said:


> I never would have thought to take a look at it from a cyclical standpoint over such a long period of time...




History is your friend, although I know Buffett has said that if history was all you needed the Forbes list would be filled with librarians.

I prefer Mark Twain's quote..

"History doesn't repeat but it rhymes".


----------



## craft (17 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



McLovin said:


> Here's EBIT margin from 2003 to 2012...
> 
> 10.02%	12.42%	10.33%	12.27%	12.94%	14.64%	14.58%	18.80%	16.01%	18.67%
> 
> ...




Those EBIT Margins look a bit different to what I have





The run up from early 2000's looks fairly obvious – the real question is whether the 23 year regression line of the margin is representative of underlying business improvement?  The answer has a big impact on where margins may bottom.

Margin is only part of the profitability equation the other half is asset utilisation which tends to be equally important for true cyclical companies.


----------



## McLovin (17 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



craft said:


> Those EBIT Margins look a bit different to what I have




I took mine from AFR (Morningstar) for the 03-12 period and from the annual report from 98-00

From your longer dated graph, it does look like margins plateaued in the mid-90's and then took off again once the boom started.

The period of the early 90's might have been affected by the recession, so margins were low at the beginning of the period.


----------



## Ves (17 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



craft said:


> Those EBIT Margins look a bit different to what I have




The graph you posted looks like it quotes the operating margin, which will be based on EBITDA.  And McLovin is using EBIT margin.

The actual trend line, I would suspect, should be fairly similar unless the ratio of depreciation to revenue changed materially over time...

Another consideration, and as I mentioned I am not intimately familar with this business, is their operations may have changed over time, from lower margin operations to higher margin operations, which combined with the resources super-cycle, would help the trend.

I would recommend that those who are interested in the company have a look into that.


----------



## craft (18 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



craft said:


> Those EBIT Margins look a bit different to what I have





This intrigued me so I took a bit of a look at FWD.

My data supplier strips out rental revenue from operating revenue which it uses to calculate EBIT margin (bit weird really cause depreciation on rental assets is included in EBIT)

One observation from my little look at FWD revolves around the depreciation rate on the rental assets – It really doesn’t seem to correspond at all with rental revenue – which makes profits hugely sensitive to rental revenue (mining related) also opens up the possibility of accounting creativity in the short run.

Next.


----------



## prawn_86 (18 October 2012)

Reverse speeding ticket issued today and the usual "we know nothing" response


----------



## McLovin (18 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



craft said:


> One observation from my little look at FWD revolves around the depreciation rate on the rental assets – It really doesn’t seem to correspond at all with rental revenue – which makes profits hugely sensitive to rental revenue (mining related) also opens up the possibility of accounting creativity in the short run.




Hi craft

Can you expand a bit on that? I'm having a look but I can't see what you mean.

Thanks


----------



## craft (18 October 2012)

*Re: FWD*



McLovin said:


> Hi craft
> 
> Can you expand a bit on that? I'm having a look but I can't see what you mean.
> 
> Thanks




2012 example. Rental revenue 107 Million - Total plant & Equipment depn less than 10 Million (they don’t split out rental accommodation depn) 

Stick a village in the middle of the desert – make big rentals now and make minimal depreciation charges = good reported profits *now*!


My guess is fixed buildings included as rental plant are only being depreciated at 2.5%  as per the tax schedule. (no build up in deferred tax) That doesn’t seem high enough to me given the risks in long term occupancy.

The report stated depreciation on Plant ranged *2-5%-50%* lots of scope there.  [What earnings figure do you want this year?]

Next.


----------



## McLovin (18 October 2012)

Thanks for that.


----------



## fanger (28 November 2012)

Fwd has been getting hammered of late along with the rest of the mining services companies.


----------



## tinhat (28 November 2012)

*Re: FWD*



craft said:


> 2012 example. Rental revenue 107 Million - Total plant & Equipment depn less than 10 Million (they don’t split out rental accommodation depn)
> 
> Stick a village in the middle of the desert – make big rentals now and make minimal depreciation charges = good reported profits *now*!
> 
> ...




About a month ago I spoke with an analyst at the end of a seminar who specialises in the mining services/capital goods sector and mentioned your thesis to him and he's thoughts were that FWD were depreciating more than enough. He offered for me to call him in his office so he could look into the figures more and we could discuss it further. Alas, FWD has been on my watch list but I have no need to make a buy decision for a while it seems, so I've been keeping my powder dry and holding off calling the analyst. He did say that they were looking to do a major overhaul of Searipple Village in Karatha and that if RIO don't renew then that will bring that forward. He also felt that the economics of the Gladstone accommodation market were sound. (I held DCG at the time of our converstation). Err, my memory of the conversation is sketchy though.


----------



## skc (28 November 2012)

*Re: FWD*



tinhat said:


> About a month ago I spoke with an analyst at the end of a seminar who specialises in the mining services/capital goods sector and mentioned your thesis to him and he's thoughts were that FWD were depreciating more than enough. He offered for me to call him in his office so he could look into the figures more and we could discuss it further. Alas, FWD has been on my watch list but I have no need to make a buy decision for a while it seems, so I've been keeping my powder dry and holding off calling the analyst. He did say that they were looking to do a major overhaul of Searipple Village in Karatha and that if RIO don't renew then that will bring that forward. He also felt that the economics of the Gladstone accommodation market were sound. (I held DCG at the time of our converstation). Err, my memory of the conversation is sketchy though.




If you depreciate a village over 20 years but in actual fact it will only be occupied for the first 3-4 years (as in the construction duration of the LNG projects in Gladstone), you will get larger profits in the early years and you will, eventually, have to write down on the asset value of the village by year 5.

I will put on record here that I think probability favours that a high percentage of the LNG projects will turn out to be complete busts. Some already don't earn their cost of capital already. Some might get scretched altogether. A mining accommodation village is the ultimate of property boom... and it will go out with a bang.


----------



## notting (11 February 2013)

Not a pretty picture.





Market didn't like it and may continue to be weak for a while.

Great company though and worth whatching.


----------



## tinhat (11 February 2013)

I sold this morning at 9.65. The dividend payout rate may not be sustainable over the medium term.


----------



## fanger (18 May 2013)

Now that mining services companies are on the nose like FWD where do we think the share price is headed?


----------



## DJG (18 May 2013)

fanger said:


> Now that mining services companies are on the nose like FWD where do we think the share price is headed?





Would you say the aging/nomad's will come through in the next 4 years to give a bit of life back? - I read somewhere on the ABS website that x% of the population are to become retired/pensioners in the next 4-5 years. Not saying every single one of them will buy a caravan but the correlation is there to some extent...thoughts?

Does FWD build the pop up housing for any other services or companies such as aboriginal communities?


----------



## Fifty101 (21 May 2013)

Given it's 25% fall today following it's announcement last night that 2nd half revenue is actually going to be "marginally" lower than 1H, I have been having a serious look at whether to sell or hold FWD.  Lost money years ago following City Pacific (CIY) on it's downward spiral while being assured it would turn back around, and have been fearful of making the same mistake again ever since.

The big fear seems to be FWD's level of exposure in the "mining related" field. 

Based on 1H13 figures the revenue split between the two main divisions seems to be approx:

Manufactured accom - 2/3
Rec vehicles division - 1/3

Some points I have noted are as follows:

Manufactured Accom division seems to be dominated by 3 big projects:

Searimple Village - Karratha, which has contracts with Rio but has softening demand.

Osprey Project - Sth Headland - project commissioned by WA Govt to address housing of key workers in the area - still under construction - due for completion approx end 2013.

Gladstone Village - Under construction - rev expected from 2014, but being continually reviewed due to fluctuations in industry in area.

They also have a current contract with VIC Education for the classroom transfer project with revenue expected into 2015.

Out of it's 3 big projects only one is earning revenue now, but you could argue that when the others are complete - revenue should increase significantly. (They actually advised of this in their 2012 annual report - stating short term revenue would be effected by development costs of these projects). I live in Gladstone and will be surprised if that village doesn't take off, given the absolutely insane level of industry and construction going on here.

In the Rec vehicles division - they have recently reduced overheads by consolidating production to their WA branch, and I would imagine the benefits of this will take some time before they show up on the books and reports. Given the supposed large increase expected in retiries over the next few years, I also agree, they should be able to capitalise on this and revenues should increase in this area.

If you value the company by its latest reported results you could argue the share price has even further to fall, however as we often see - the market seems to value companies based on where they are going, not where they have been. Given this, while not a certainty, you could suggest there might be brighter times ahead if projects come to fruition as planned.

It frustrates me that FWD advised that there would be short term poor results back in the annual report 2012, and then when they issue a market statement yesterday basically reiterating what they had already said would happen, everyone scrambles for the exit.

I am certainly no expert on this topic and am only providing opinions based on what resarch I have done - am more trying to justify my own position than anything, and am happy to be corrected on anything.


----------



## jjbinks (23 May 2013)

I should say that i'm new to shares.

Trying to learn about value investing and FWD does look promising. 

Based on current earnings a my feeling is that its is not  worth mor than $2. But if you factor in previous earnings probably purchasing at $3-4 is still good value. 

But would it reasonable to assume a return to previous earnings.


----------



## Ann (23 May 2013)

jjbinks said:


> I should say that i'm new to shares.
> 
> Trying to learn about value investing and FWD does look promising.
> 
> ...




G'day jjbinks, I think there is better value elsewhere. On the 22nd May 5 brokers put a sell recomendation on it. I doubt they see it as a good value share.

As a chartist I call what is happening to the price of FWD as 'catching a falling knife'! May come away with a bits missing off your anatomy.


----------



## fanger (25 May 2013)

So ann where on the chart is FWD headed?


----------



## Sharkman (25 May 2013)

Fifty101 said:


> Given it's 25% fall today following it's announcement last night that 2nd half revenue is actually going to be "marginally" lower than 1H, I have been having a serious look at whether to sell or hold FWD.
> .
> .
> .
> It frustrates me that FWD advised that there would be short term poor results back in the annual report 2012, and then when they issue a market statement yesterday basically reiterating what they had already said would happen, everyone scrambles for the exit.




that's what i was thinking too. according to commsec the consensus EPS forecast for the full FY has been sitting at 45c since feb (it dropped to 37c last week). 1H EPS was 25c. i would've thought 20c could be reasonably interpreted as "marginally" below 25c, if anything, a tad bit more than "marginal". so have we been told anything new in this latest announcement that wasn't already factored in? OTOH, IDK how far you can trust the consensus forecasts... but i'm inclined to consider taking a small punt on this (if these 7%, 8% falls would stop and we get a few sessions of little movement on low volume - possibly meaning most of the sellers are flushed out?)



Ann said:


> G'day jjbinks, I think there is better value elsewhere. On the 22nd May 5 brokers put a sell recomendation on it. I doubt they see it as a good value share.




can't speak for other ppl, but personally i don't trust broker recommendations. the brokers don't make more money when you make more money, they make money when you transact more. now i'm quite new here so i should first warn everyone i'm pretty cynical by nature... i bet they moved it from neutral (or "we don't really know") to sell, hoping their clients would follow it, and they collect the brokerage. sure they get it right sometimes but they also get it spectacularly wrong just as often (or they have ulterior motives - underwriters for a capital raising, perhaps?)

i remember a few years ago when i used to receive complimentary analyst research notes from the broker i was using, before i made the switch to IB (who shall remain anonymous for now). one day i got a research note where they had slapped a buy recommendation on photon group (used to be PGA, looked it up just then out of curiosity, and i see they have since changed to EGG... which could be somewhat apt - is that what the value of your position in it will look like in a few months time?). the broker put down a price target of about 2.30, and it was about 1.30 at the time (this was before the reverse split). i couldn't understand the call. they were drowning in debt (debt/equity was way over 100% IIRC), the chart was nasty, had a whole bunch of weak businesses. thankfully i deleted the research note, for a year later PGA was about 8 cents...


----------



## Country Lad (25 May 2013)

Fifty101 said:


> If you value the company by its latest reported results you could argue the share price has even further to fall, however as we often see - the market seems to value companies based on where they are going, not where they have been. Given this, while not a certainty, you could suggest there might be brighter times ahead if projects come to fruition as planned.




The problem may be that the market doesn't see brighter times in the foreseeable future.  There are certainly risks there which the market will be pricing in.



Fifty101 said:


> It frustrates me that FWD advised that there would be short term poor results back in the annual report 2012, and then when they issue a market statement yesterday basically reiterating what they had already said would happen, everyone scrambles for the exit.
> 
> I am certainly no expert on this topic and am only providing opinions based on what resarch I have done - am more trying to justify my own position than anything, and am happy to be corrected on anything.





No corrections needed, just some comments about the results.  

It may be that the extent of the poor results was a bit of a surprise.  The manufactured accommodation division EBIT has fallen 60% and the future is still not rosy except for possibly Gladstone, but that may be only short term eg occupancy at Searipple fell to 40-50% over a short period.  Add to that the more intense competition for caravan park cabins, the future may appear to be a bit risky.

Even worse, the recreation vehicle division EBIT fell by 98% to virtually nil, so after interest, it is negative for the company.  The future may not be all that bright because even though we have all those baby boomers retiring, according to some in the industry, recreation vehicle manufacturing is slowing because of the decline in consumer sentiment, over supply and increasing less expensive imports.  If the A$ continues to fall Fleetwood's Asian built products will lose part of their price advantage.  

It is not as if Fleetwood have a major market share in recreational vehicles.  With Jayco’s 50% of the market and hundreds of other manufacturers, Fleetwood’s relatively small market share will not be able (has not been able) to withstand a downturn without a hit on profit.  Although they are confident that the new manufacturing in WA will offer savings, they are a long way from the market which is mainly the eastern states.

Overall, the EBIT has fallen by 64% which probably explains the exit by shareholders.  I did very well out of Fleetwood in the past and confess a fondness for the company but I can’t see me buying again in the near future.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Ves (25 May 2013)

*Re: FWD*



craft said:


> Margin is only part of the profitability equation the other half is* asset utilisation* which tends to be equally important for true cyclical companies.



And now starting to look more and more relevant as an apt assessment of the risks!


----------



## westboy (26 May 2013)

1H EPS was 25c.


Sharkman where do you getting that from. I have full year at 15-20c depending on how you read the anny.

This looks like a train wreck with at least a 3 handle on it.

Cheers


----------



## Ann (26 May 2013)

fanger said:


> So ann where on the chart is FWD headed?




Around the 3.00 to 3.50 level will give it a double bottom from Jan 2009 Fanger. It may go lower I can see no overhead support/resistance until around $1.00. If in fact it has fallen lower than its true value the market will pick it up again. It may even rebound from this level as being oversold. It is now on a long term rising support line. I just wouldn't fancy being first in line to buy as the dagger/knife is falling.


----------



## Ann (27 May 2013)

fanger said:


> So ann where on the chart is FWD headed?




Now to reply with a picture. I wanted to delay the chart to see how well it reacted to the long term support line coming from 2001 today. It appears to be clinging on quite well so far. 4.36 may be as low as it goes. There may be more testing times for FWD and its LT support line, if it fails then there is a double bottom to aim for at around the 3-3.50 mark. Let's see!


----------



## Sharkman (27 May 2013)

westboy said:


> 1H EPS was 25c.
> 
> 
> Sharkman where do you getting that from. I have full year at 15-20c depending on how you read the anny.
> ...




just going off the commsec figures. The consensus full year analyst forecast EPS was 45c since feb, until last week when it dropped to 37c, today i see it has dropped to 25.4c. the analysis page of the company research tab has 25.7c under the 1st half column of 30/6/2013.

admittedly commsec sometimes makes glaring mistakes in their numbers - i recall that last year after GUD sold their stake in breville, commsec put the proceeds of that as "net profit before abnormals", as a result giving GUD what looked like spectacular numbers at first glance, as all the other metrics like EPS, ROE etc. on their table were based off that sale being considered as normal PNL. they have since corrected it, but it took them a few weeks.

so their interpretation of the 1/2 yearly report may be different to yours - or it's possible that 1H number might be a bit out too, like the GUD numbers last year... mind summarising how you arrived at that figure of 15-20c though?


----------



## ROE (6 June 2013)

I dont have the stock but this industry seem dire according to AFR article today...

Heaps and heaps of modular builder are in real trouble, some has already gone belly up, other survive see their order of 350m 2 years ago now barely 60m ...all the big miners are pulling the plugs..... you need lot of cash and some savage cut to the business if this trend continue...survival of the fittest ...


----------



## galumay (6 June 2013)

Intersting, I remember I had this stock on my short list, I went back and checked, i have it crossed out with the comment "Cant see this business model being sustainable" Its nice to see it looks like in my early days of learning and researching I may have read this one correctly!


----------



## Country Lad (20 August 2013)

NPAT of $12.5m, down 77%. Manufactured accommodation division down 59% which is not surprising but the $10.7 million loss for the Recreational Vehicle division is surprising even taking into account the $6 million restructuring cost because the national RV manufacturing is at an all time high.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## fanger (27 August 2013)

FWD looking like its really struggling now.


----------



## notting (30 December 2014)

As with IMD

Why so happy?
I see nothing!:dunno:

It's fallen from $14, why stop here?


----------



## piggybank (24 February 2015)

Up today by 15% maybe they already know whats going to be said at tomorrows *Advance Notice of Half Year Results Announcement and Investor Briefing*


----------



## skc (24 February 2015)

piggybank said:


> Up today by 15% maybe they already know whats going to be said at tomorrows *Advance Notice of Half Year Results Announcement and Investor Briefing*




Or may be they announced a big accommodation deal with RIO this morning


----------



## burglar (25 February 2015)

skc said:


> Or may be they announced a big accommodation deal with RIO this morning




Delivering the promise!


----------



## piggybank (25 February 2015)

skc said:


> Or may be they announced a big accommodation deal with RIO this morning




I noticed that release prior to my post but I didn't think something like that would help the stock price to increase by 15% - just shows you what I know - Jack S---

Her is the release I was referring to:- http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=FWD&E=ASX&N=710695

PB


----------



## agumby (24 July 2015)

On 22/7/15 shares in Fleetwood Corporation surged after the company announced it would had secured $62.2 million from the sale of its Osprey Key Worker Village in Port Hedland and would use the funds to pay off company debt.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/29009199/fleetwood-surges-on-osprey-sale/

The company said it had executed documents with the WA Housing Authority on Monday constituting final commercial terms for the sale and purchase of the village.

Under the terms of the deal, Fleetwood received $62.2 million and will receive an income stream from the management of the village for the next 14 years.

Fleetwood said it had assigned the $62.2 million sum to its financier Westpac, reducing the company’s debt to zero.


This follow on from their announcement in May of a supply deal of manufactured home to Gateway Lifestyle exclusively for at least two years with a two-year extension option.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/28103447/fleetwood-up-on-home-deal/


----------



## Boggo (24 July 2015)

FWD popped its head up in a weekly scan last night.

(click to expand)


----------



## sinner (24 July 2015)

Boggo said:


> FWD popped its head up in a weekly scan last night.
> 
> (click to expand)




Hi Boggo,

I have always wanted to ask.

What are the lines?

I am guessing they are the midpoint of a Donchian channel?


----------



## Boggo (11 August 2015)

sinner said:


> Hi Boggo,
> 
> I have always wanted to ask.
> 
> ...




Sorry sinner, just saw this post just now.

Very basic, previously a Metastock exploration now coded in Amibroker, blue is a HHV and the yellow is an ATR stop all weekly charts and signals.

FWD is still slowly continuing upwards, about 30c or 16% since first signal.

Cheers


----------



## sinner (27 August 2015)

Boggo said:


> Sorry sinner, just saw this post just now.
> 
> Very basic, previously a Metastock exploration now coded in Amibroker, blue is a HHV and the yellow is an ATR stop all weekly charts and signals.
> 
> ...




Thanks Boggo, so I guess the ATR stop is the HHV minus N*ATR.


----------



## Value Hunter (2 June 2016)

I noticed recently two funds known for activist investing Sandon Capital (SNC) and MErcantile Investments (MVT) have both become substantial shareholders in Fleetwood (FWD). Given the stock is trading at a substantial discount to NTA and the company reported a loss in the most recent half year period, perhaps the activists are looking to shake things up or pressure the company to sell off assets. Watch this space.


----------



## So_Cynical (2 June 2016)

Value Hunter said:


> I noticed recently two funds known for activist investing Sandon Capital (SNC) and MErcantile Investments (MVT) have both become substantial shareholders in Fleetwood (FWD).




Yes i noticed the Sandon announcement...reminds me that i meant to revisit Fleetwood.


----------



## galumay (2 June 2016)

So_Cynical said:


> Yes i noticed the Sandon announcement...reminds me that i meant to revisit Fleetwood.




...me too....i revisited them....it was a short trip and reminded me why i havent any skin in the game!


----------



## So_Cynical (11 July 2016)

Trading at 1.95 today, a nice little run up from early June and 1.65.


----------



## noirua (14 August 2017)

A good chance Fleetwood are heading for a good recovery. Having been $14 some time back.  Lost its way due to mining rental deals during the collapse.


----------



## tech/a (14 August 2017)

Posted in charts of interest yesterday if interested


----------



## So_Cynical (14 August 2017)

tech/a said:


> Posted in charts of interest yesterday if interested




Thanks - was interested 10 months ago at 1.90 now FWD is 2.80 its not as appealing.


----------



## tech/a (14 August 2017)

So_Cynical said:


> Thanks - was interested 10 months ago at 1.90 now FWD is 2.80 its not as appealing.




So you wouldn't trade it?


----------



## Value Hunter (28 August 2017)

I briefly looked at it in 2016 when the shares were around $1.20 and it looked cheap to me at the time but I decided against investing as I did not like the management (at the time - some of the key people have since changed) who seemed overly promotional and short-term focused after listening to their audio slide presentations.


----------



## peter2 (30 January 2018)

FWD is near another significant chart break-out. The weekly chart looks promising but the monthly chart reminds us that this company is recovering from it's earlier problems. The daily traded volume is very low. A short term trader would have to be very careful not to get stuck if the buyers disappeared.


----------



## debtfree (30 January 2018)

*Peter:* Yes the daily volume is very low at times. With volume put aside for a moment, would the Reporting Date on the 16th Feb chase you away on a daily view? 
What about on a Weekly View?


----------



## peter2 (30 January 2018)

I'd be concerned by the volume and the scheduled news as a short term trader. There are plenty of better opportunities for us than this. 
Medium term using the weekly charts, I'd be less concerned as my iSL would be further away to allow for some price volatility. If the report is good and the buyers stepped up. I'd be inclined to add to my initial position and raise the iSL a little and hold for much longer.


----------



## greggles (21 June 2018)

Fleetwood Corporation has announced that it is selling the Coromal and Windsor Caravan brands to Apollo Tourism & Leisure Limited (ATL). Fleetwood will sell goodwill in the business to Apollo for $1 million, and at the end of a transition period, Apollo will purchase Fleetwood's remaining raw material and finished goods stock.

Fleetwood had previously announced that earnings in caravan manufacturing in the second half of FY18 were expected to be an EBIT loss of between $7 million to $8 million.

The market was happy to see Fleetwood unload its loss making caravan manufacturing operations and focus on its parts and accessories, modular accommodation and village operations markets. 

The FWD share price has seen a lift today as a result of the sale, up 21.5c to $2.16.


----------



## So_Cynical (21 June 2018)

Fleetwood not making caravans is like coke not making coke..


----------



## noirua (1 September 2018)

FWD was once a high dividend payer and a portfolio must have with links to supplying accommodation for miners during the boom years. Fell apart as they built more accommodation just before the big mining recession period and then buying caravans became quite a Luke warm sector to be in.

Once $14 and then flirted with the $1.50 level in a big fall from grace. Moving from mid-cap to micro-cap and stumbling along.  Now they are starting again from a low base and are ones to keep an eye on after a successful rights issue.


----------



## Country Lad (28 October 2019)

FWD broke out at $2.00 and is going on with it today.  Maybe it has manged to crawl its way off the bottom and surprise us all.


----------



## sptrawler (28 October 2019)

Country Lad said:


> FWD broke out at $2.00 and is going on with it today.  Maybe it has manged to crawl its way off the bottom and surprise us all.



I wonder where they are getting their growth from? I Will have to do some reading up.


----------



## Country Lad (28 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I wonder where they are getting their growth from? I Will have to do some reading up.




These announcements most likely helped a bit


----------



## sptrawler (28 October 2019)

Country Lad said:


> These announcements most likely helped a bit



That's interesting CL, Pindan were recently bought out by a Singaporean company, from memory.
There is a big push in W.A to go away from FIFO.


----------



## RobL (28 October 2019)

Fleetwood Corporation Limited is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange using the ticker FWD. The company is based in East Perth, Western Australia and is involved in modular accommodation, parts and services and,  village operations.
The stock price has broken north through a trading range in the last couple of trading days closing Monday, October 28 at AUD 2.270. The next resistance level is AUD2.317 and then AUD2.363.  The stock hit an all-time high of AUD14.250 in February 2011 and an all-time low of AUD1.000 in March 2016. Fundamental and technical analysis can be found on Yahoo Finance using the symbol FWD.AX .
Disclaimer:
This information is for general information only and should not be used solely to base trading or investment decisions. Please do your own research. The company’s website is here https://www.fleetwoodcorporation.com.au . 
Here https://decentralisedwealth.com/QualityTradeIdeas.html  you can find some other interesting US and Australian stocks to look at.


----------



## noirua (22 November 2019)

FWD Website: https://www.fleetwoodcorporation.com.au/


----------



## noirua (24 February 2020)

Half Year Results Presentation: https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/fwd.asx-6A969201/

Half Year Results to December 31 2019: https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/fwd.asx-6A969200/


----------



## noirua (26 August 2020)

Back to paying dividends again after a long drought - 12c a share.  Noted, now in the distant past, for being one of the highest dividend payers on the ASX.  Company was in trouble with its Caravan and mining accommodation divisions. Was once at $14 and now under $2, showing the extent of the downdraft in the mining decline.
Presentation: https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200826/pdf/44lwy7tgprbfts.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/FWD


----------



## noirua (26 October 2020)

*Is There An Opportunity With Fleetwood Corporation Limited's (ASX:FWD) 30% Undervaluation? - August 28 2020*








						Is There An Opportunity With Fleetwood Corporation Limited's (ASX:FWD) 30% Undervaluation?
					

Does the August share price for Fleetwood Corporation Limited (ASX:FWD) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will...




					money.yahoo.com
				




Annual Report 2020: https://s31925.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Fleetwood-Annual-Report-2020_FINAL.pdf

Maybe just maybe FWD are returning to old time profitability that saw the share peak at around $14 - now under $2.


----------



## noirua (30 October 2020)

STRATEGIC PLAN UPDATE





						FWD (ASX) Ann: Strategic Plan Update
					

Strategic Plan Update




					hotcopper.com.au


----------



## System (26 November 2020)

On November 26th, 2020, Fleetwood Corporation Limited changed its name to Fleetwood Limited.


----------



## peter2 (26 November 2020)

The change of name deserves a chart. Problem is that the chart of FWD looks "ornery". Hard to believe that this was once a $13.50 stock. Today's BO>2.00 is comforting but only a start. I'll be happier once price gets above 2.50. Someone will be making out like a bandit when it does.


----------



## noirua (16 February 2021)

It looks as if the new strategic plan has a good chance of working and helped by the mining boom.  A very gradual uphill struggle that could see us back to $3.00 in the short term.


----------



## The Triangle (16 February 2021)

noirua said:


> It looks as if the new strategic plan has a good chance of working and helped by the mining boom.  A very gradual uphill struggle that could see us back to $3.00 in the short term.



They are effectively debt free, have manufacturing capacity and print cash like an ATM.    Dumping the caravans and raising capital 2 years ago was a fantastic move.    Even after pretty much doubling the SP, the EV/EBITDA is probably going to be below 7 once we see 1/2 yearly results.   I think $3 is a foregone conclusion - the plan is working.  $4-5 would not surprise me if they can pull off a few big contract wins - maybe some government jobs.

My main concern (which really is not a concern) is the high dividend payout % of 100% - surely they can invest in _something_ to hedge against a downturn? There are a tonne of resource projects around the traps right now, and FWD container offices/camps must be going very well - but it''s very much a boom/bust cycle.


----------



## noirua (3 April 2021)

The Triangle said:


> They are effectively debt free, have manufacturing capacity and print cash like an ATM.    Dumping the caravans and raising capital 2 years ago was a fantastic move.    Even after pretty much doubling the SP, the EV/EBITDA is probably going to be below 7 once we see 1/2 yearly results.   I think $3 is a foregone conclusion - the plan is working.  $4-5 would not surprise me if they can pull off a few big contract wins - maybe some government jobs.
> 
> My main concern (which really is not a concern) is the high dividend payout % of 100% - surely they can invest in _something_ to hedge against a downturn? There are a tonne of resource projects around the traps right now, and FWD container offices/camps must be going very well - but it''s very much a boom/bust cycle.



Hopefully, we will see $14 a share once more though that was driven by high dividend payouts that probably attracted a lot of people wanting to get tax back. As soon as mining prospects tumbled the share price went down with it despite protestations that the caravan side would boom - unfortunately it eventually faded as well.


----------



## Country Lad (4 April 2021)

noirua said:


> .........................despite protestations that the caravan side would boom - unfortunately it eventually faded as well.



FWD sold its caravan operation to Apollo Tourism & Leisure Ltd (ATL) in 2018.  They probably wish they still owned it now.  Most caravan manufacturers are quoting 6 months or more delivery time.  The market is booming since the start of Covid.  It is surprising that ATL hasn't risen with the demand out there.


----------



## The Triangle (5 April 2021)

Country Lad said:


> FWD sold its caravan operation to Apollo Tourism & Leisure Ltd (ATL) in 2018.  They probably wish they still owned it now.  Most caravan manufacturers are quoting 6 months or more delivery time.  The market is booming since the start of Covid.  It is surprising that ATL hasn't risen with the demand out there.



Apollo's rental fleet was hammered and a lot sold off, their debts are high and they are still running a loss - but it would be interesting to see if the caravan business would be worth more now to FWD had they held it.  Eitherway ATL seem in a world of pain to me and maybe FWD can buy it back at a discount.

FWD sill maintain a caravan servicing/parts business which has done well and I noticed in the half yearly that they wrote out commercializing the IP from their caravan business.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 August 2021)

one view from an investor, 'activist value" Sandon Capital


> _After years of operational missteps and poor capital allocation, we believe Board and management changes made at Fleetwood over the past 10 months have set the company on a path to prosperity.  There are numerous internal and external opportunities in the core manufactured accommodation business to drive profitable growth for many years.  _





> _Furthermore, we expect significant construction activity in the Karratha region over the next 5+ years to drive strong occupancy demand for the company’s Searipple accommodation village.  The company already has excess cash on its balance sheet and this could be further bolstered by an eventual sale of the non-core RV parts and accessories business, opening up a plethora of capital management opportunities (on top of the existing 100% dividend payout ratio).  _





> _As a sign of our confidence in the new Board and management team, the strong long-term outlook for the company’s core businesses and our view that the shares remain extremely undervalued, we recently increased our holding in the company. _


----------



## galumay (26 August 2021)

I reckon its a dead duck again once Bali opens up again. Probably a good short term trade for those that play the game, especially with micro funds like Sandon pumping it. Get in, get out, profit. I reckon the thing to look for is when the little funds get to run their pump in the AFR or similar, thats your opportunity.


----------



## divs4ever (26 August 2021)

galumay said:


> I reckon its a dead duck again once Bali opens up again. Probably a good short term trade for those that play the game, especially with micro funds like Sandon pumping it. Get in, get out, profit. I reckon the thing to look for is when the little funds get to run their pump in the AFR or similar, thats your opportunity.




 depends on where you see the future  , mining camps or internment camps 

 i would prefer an uptick in mining accommodation  , but some fools are trying to talk us into a war 

 i hold FWD

 and will probably resist throwing more cash at it 

 DYOR


----------



## peter2 (26 August 2021)

*FWD* is a tricky one for short term trading because the daily traded volume is low and market depth is thin. This makes buying and selling a decent size parcel a tricky exercise. I did consider buying the reversal opportunity on the BO>2.35 (SL 2.20). However seeing the volume traded that day was so low (15K) I had to pass on it.


----------



## noirua (21 November 2021)

These charts show the history of FWD from generous payer of high dividends that almost caused its demise on caravans and mining villages as the worm turned in both sectors. Live charts:


			https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=ASX%5EFWD&p=0&t=1
		



			https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=ASX%5EFWD&p=1&t=1
		



			https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=ASX%5EFWD&p=4&t=1
		



			https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=ASX%5EFWD&p=9&t=1
		

The shares once reached the heady heights of $13.00 on 4 January 2011.

Trust faded in FWD after falling away in 2011 and eventually down to $1.00 in February 2016. Trust has not returned by any means despite the revived dividends.


----------



## The Triangle (24 February 2022)

Not a flash half for Fleetwood as they wrote off some intangibles/goodwill and generally had a very poor half.  Divi slashed to 2 cents.  Not unexpected.  They warned a few months ago about a bad half.  Covid was given the blame - which I can accept as tradies can't exactly work from home on a laptop sipping lattes...   Hopefully that is the actual reason for the poor performance rather than actual structural issues with the company, I would have liked to see more details on the poor performing projects but guess we'll have to wait 6 months and see how H2 pans out.     Still have over $55 million cash and zero debt.  But trade payables has gone up 20-30 million.

_A loss in Building Solutions was caused by cost increases in two major projects and COVID-19 related lockdowns and the associated decision-making uncertainty early in the half year. The impact of both projects has been quarantined to 1H FY22 and are not expected to impact the second half.....Based on the order book and outlook across the different businesses, the Company anticipates a return to profitability in the second half of FY22_


----------



## noirua (17 April 2022)

Fleetwood (ASX:FWD) Stock Price & Quote Analysis  - Simply Wall St
					

Research Fleetwood (FWD) stock with daily updated analysis.




					simplywall.st
				



If this proves to be true us shareholders will do well:


> Below Fair Value: FWD (A$1.97) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$7.18)



However, past management did get it wrong during the mining decline from 2012 and many think they mistimed the sale of the caravan business.


----------



## sptrawler (17 April 2022)

noirua said:


> Fleetwood (ASX:FWD) Stock Price & Quote Analysis  - Simply Wall St
> 
> 
> Research Fleetwood (FWD) stock with daily updated analysis.
> ...



Modular housing IMO, will be a lot more lucrative than caravans in the near term, with the cost of materials and labour going through the roof, buying a fixed price block and a fixed price house will become attractive IMO.
But there is easier money to be made, in those providing the finance and those digging up raw materials IMO,I have always found picking winners in the mosh pit is difficult.


----------



## divs4ever (18 April 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Modular housing IMO, will be a lot more lucrative than caravans in the near term, with the cost of materials and labour going through the roof, buying a fixed price block and a fixed price house will become attractive IMO.
> But there is easier money to be made, in those providing the finance and those digging up raw materials IMO,I have always found picking winners in the mosh pit is difficult.



moshpits are about surviving ( and having fun )

 changing times ( i am just not sure they will change for the better )


----------



## divs4ever (1 July 2022)

FLEETWOOD SIGNS 5 YEAR SEARIPPLE VILLAGE AGREEMENT WITH RIO TINTO
Fleetwood Limited (ASX: FWD) is pleased to advise that it has signed a five-year agreement with Rio
Tinto to provide accommodation services at Searipple Village in Karratha. The agreement is expected
to generate between $52m and $70m in revenue for Fleetwood over the term with additional options
over and above this.
Under the contract, Searipple Village is nominated as Rio Tinto’s preferred third-party accommodation
provider for all FIFO (fly-in-fly-out) Rio Tinto personnel needing accommodation in Karratha, Dampier
or Wickham where accommodation requirements cannot be met by Rio Tinto’s own accommodation.
Under the agreement Rio Tinto has secured the supply of 250 rooms per night exclusively for its
operations. The agreement also provides the flexibility to secure additional rooms, if required, on a nonexclusive basis.
Commenting on the agreement, Fleetwood’s Chief Executive Officer, Bruce Nicholson said:
“We are delighted to continue our long-standing working relationship with Rio Tinto.
This contract underpins the utilisation of Searipple Village over the next five years and provides the
basis for further occupancy in this core asset.”
This announcement was authorised by the Fleetwood Limited Board.


=================================================================================

DYOR

i hold FWD


----------



## noirua (16 November 2022)

SimplyWallStreet's Robotic point of view: 
https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/con...m_campaign=Critical+Updates&utm_content=Email


----------

