# AVA - AVA Risk Group



## System (22 April 2015)

Future Fibre Technologies is a leading developer and manufacturer of fence-mounted fibre optic perimeter intrusion detection and security systems. Deployed by some of the most security conscious industrial, military and government organisations in the world, FFT's advanced security systems detect and locate perimeter intrusions, identify third-party interference on oil and gas pipelines and protect sensitive data communications cables.

It is anticipated that FFT will list on the ASX during May 2015.

http://www.fftsecurity.com


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## System (15 May 2018)

On May 15th, 2018, Future Fibre Technologies Limited (FFT) changed its name and ASX code to AVA Risk Group Limited (AVA).


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## greggles (19 July 2018)

AVA Risk Group has been slowly making gains over the last few weeks, rising from 11c on 27 June to 16c today.

This morning the company announced that its Technology division BQT Solutions has been awarded a contract with the Australian Government for the supply of BQT smart readers to the Department of Human Services (DHS). The contract is for approximately 6,500 readers and additional associated equipment over a planned implementation period of approximately two years. The anticipated revenue from DHS over the  contract period is expected to be $1.8 million to $1.9 million.

18c looks like resistance for AVA but it looks like it's going to take another crack at it in the near future.


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## Ann (9 May 2019)

Up 21.43% to .17c so far today

*Ava Risk Group to deploy SecureLink to major military cybersecurity data network project*

_Ava Risk Group (ASX: AVA) is about to deploy its SecureLink technology to the Indian Ministry of Defence under a major military cybersecurity data network project.


The company received official notice today that its in-country manufacturing partner SFO Technologies had received the purchase order for Ava’s future fibre technologies.


Ava is expected to receive US$11.9 million (A$16.86 million) in paid licence fee revenue from the order over the next 14 months.


According to Ava, the current production schedule will see up to US$1 million (A$1.5 million) in revenue come in before the end of the current 2019 financial year, with the remainder to be received during FY2020.


“This large-scale deployment of our data network security solution will generate further interest in our cybersecurity solutions and contribute significant earnings in FY2020 and beyond,” Ava chief executive officer Scott Basham said. More..._


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## So_Cynical (1 November 2020)

The last 3 months have been good for AVA, perhaps it can keep going.
`


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## Dona Ferentes (1 November 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> The last 3 months have been good for AVA, perhaps it can keep going.



And we can tweek a graph to make it look like this; aka Sleeping Beauty?
Market cap still sub $50 mill

Three years; weekly





what has changed? Picking up contracts, increasing margins, positive cashflow, swinging out of the red (even paying a dividend)




................................ earnings .............................................................    ................... Return of Equity ........................................


_• We anticipate continued strong revenue growth and have already exceeded previously forecast Q1 FY2021 revenues with an increase of 73% to $17.0 million on the previous corresponding period - despite COVID-19 delays to underlying Technology sales. _
_• We remain well funded for growth with cash at bank of $11.6 million as at 30 September 2020. 
• EBITDA for Q1 FY2021 improved by 522% for the same period last year to $7.7. million and we expect this to continue with contributions from the IMOD and Australian Department of Defence contracts. I should note that the Q1 numbers are unaudited.  _
_• In terms of new solutions Aura IQ has more than $50 million in qualified sales opportunities and we are anticipating strong interest in the new multi-year Comprehensive Maintenance Agreements - with a number of FFT customers having already signed _


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## Dona Ferentes (1 November 2020)

I do see some risk from an ever-changing technological world. The FFT biz, which seems to be their jewel, may be V1.0, with more sophisticated utilisation of fibre down the track?

_FiberSense, started by former sonar research scientist Dr Mark Englund in 2015, created and patented a new wide area sensor system for recording, labelling and visualising objects and events in real-time called VIDAR (vibration detection and ranging)._

_VIDAR is capable of capturing and analysing the tiny vibrations of nearby objects, such as cars, drills or even pedestrians, across large geographical grids using fibre optic cables. The vibration readings are then analysed and categorised on FiberSense's digital platform SuperSoniQ, which it provides to clients as a subscription cloud based service.

Just like your ears, SuperSoniQ is able to use vibrations to detect and recognise objects and events in real time over wide areas, but it can not see faces or things. It also cannot hear voices._

_The technology, Dr Englund said, will transform the way critical infrastructure assets such as power grids, telecommunication cables and sewerage pipes are managed, as well as be used to help enable autonomous vehicles._
https://supersoniq.com/

though in both cases, with such extensive networks, what of signal to noise ratios?


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## Country Lad (1 November 2020)

There have been a few buy points on the way.  I am counting on a few more yet.


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## So_Cynical (2 November 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I do see some risk from an ever-changing technological world. The FFT biz, which seems to be their jewel, may be V1.0, with more sophisticated utilisation of fibre down the track?




It was FFT that originally sparked my interest back in 2015 or so, thought the whole fibre perimeter security thing made a lot of sense.


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## Dona Ferentes (16 December 2020)

Country Lad said:


> There have been a few buy points on the way.  I am counting on a few more yet.



any discernable, yet?  It's on the watchlist, but at what price?


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## Country Lad (16 December 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> any discernable, yet?  It's on the watchlist, but at what price?
> 
> View attachment 116423




Unfortunately , no.  I was hoping the pattern would complete up to around $1.  I did not take up the trigger at 70 as the sentiment appeared weak and bailed out completely from the 67 cent mark.  It might go further but I will not be following closely till it reaches the current CBL of 77.


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## Dona Ferentes (17 December 2020)

are we done with the dumper, or more on the way when buy side builds up a bit?

_5 day, 5 minute, with volume_


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## Dona Ferentes (4 January 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> are we done with the dumper, or more on the way when buy side builds up a bit?



Well, I helped with the Buy side, picked up some for 57c. Although volume was paltry, the dumper went from causing the price to fall, to having no impact, and followed by some enthusiasm, of which I became part....  not the base, but close enough.


( will continue to _HOLD _)


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## Dona Ferentes (14 January 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> ( will continue to _HOLD _)



_revenue and profit growth in the first half of FY2021 (unaudited): 
• Sales Revenues have increased by approximately 70% compared to the same period last year to be in excess of $35.0 million for the half year. 
• EBITDA has improved by circa 450% compared to the same period last year, to exceed $12.0 million for the half year. 
• All business units are profitable for the half-year. 
• Cash at bank as at 31 December 2020 of $13.4 million_.

was getting nervous, as it sold down to 50c (which could easily be a *buy more* time, but I missed it).
AVA up 20% on this news. % day chart, 15 minute:


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## Dona Ferentes (29 January 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> was getting nervous, as it sold down to 50c (which could easily be a *buy more* time, but I missed it.)



likely to pop a bit today:

_Net operating cashflows in the quarter were positive $4.4m an increase of $0.7m on the previous quarter, and a $4.6m improvement on the same time last year. This was due to an increase in cash collections from customers compared the prior quarter, up $2.4m, and up $7.4m on the same time last year. 

Operating costs were circa $2.2m higher than the prior quarter, and $2.9m higher than the same time last year driven by higher payments for product manufacturing and operating costs which increased $0.9m quarter on quarter and $2.2m compared to the same time last year as a result of increased sales.  

The Group also continued development of the Aura Ai and Aura IQ platforms, continuing its R&D spending and intellectual property spending during the quarter, at a slightly higher level compared to the previous quarter.    

Cash receipts from customers in Q2 included $2.6m from the Indian MoD project.  The next payment from this project is expected during March, being an amount of USD$1.9m (A$2.6m), in line with the 120 days project payment terms.  

At 31 December 2020 the Company had $13.4m cash at bank. _

Paying a 2c unfranked dividend


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## Dona Ferentes (2 February 2021)

• FY2020 revenues $46.1M, increased by 46% over PCP 
• 1H FY2021 revenues $35M, increased by 70% over PCP

• Improved gross margins and right sized cost base provides good visibility to improved performance 
• Strong lift in revenue and earnings as company executes on growth strategy 
• Dividends (1H FY2021 $0.01 / 2H FY2021 $0.02)


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## Dona Ferentes (12 May 2021)

has been a retreat from frothy earlier times; the update today should stabilise AVA. There are still too many deferrals and other restrictions backing up.

*Trading Update & FY2021 Outlook *
• _Group Revenue of $48.5m for the 9 months to 31 March 2021, up 48.2% on pcp _
_• Group Gross Margin of 52% compared to 49% in pcp 
• Group EBITDA of $13.1m, up 138.3% on pcp 
• Group EBITDA margin of 27% compared to 17% in pcp  
• Strong financial position with consolidated net cash of $11.7m cash and no debt 
• Q3 FY2021 affected by COVID-19 and weaker US dollar, partly offset by provision of innovative customer solutions, highlighting Ava Group’s diverse geographic footprint and product portfolio   
• FY2021 Guidance: Group Revenue of $60-64m and Group EBITDA of $13-15m (FY2020: Group Revenue of $46.1m and Group EBITDA of $7.4m). _
_NB: All figures compare 9 months to 31 March unless otherwise indicated; unaudited financial information (A$m) _


_Q4 FY2021 is expected to continue to be affected by restrictions related to the pandemic with $6.0m in backlog and anticipated orders for the Technology Division, delayed until FY2022. This includes high margin revenue from the IMoD contract and Aura IQ which will adversely affect FY2021 EBITDA but is expected to contribute in FY2022. The Technology Division also expects to make further progress in commercialising its Aura-IQ systems and in partially converting its estimated $50m sales pipeline. It will also focus on several other strategic priorities including leveraging its go-to-market strategy with key distributor partners dormakaba and Assa Abloy to drive sales in the US and Europe respectively.    _
_ 
The Services Division, which has been a beneficiary of COVID-19 to some extent, continues to perform well in Q4 FY2021. In FY2022, revenue growth from this Division is expected to be driven by new client wins and higher contracted customer spend_


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## Dona Ferentes (5 July 2021)

FY2021 Trading Update & Outlook

_• Group Revenue forecast of $64.8m, above the guidance of $60-64m provided on 12 May 2021
• Group EBITDA forecast of $14.8-15.8m, above the guidance of $13-$15m provided on 12 May 2021 
• Group Revenue forecast of $64.8m, up 41% on pcp (FY20 $46.1m)
• Group EBITDA forecast of $14.8-15.8m, up 100-114% on pcp (FY20 $7.4m)
• Group EBITDA margin forecast of 23-24% compared to 16% in pcp 
• Strong financial position with consolidated net cash forecast of $17.0m and no debt_

Chief executive Rob Broomfield said better-than-expected margins had aided the group on the back of strong demand across its security technology operations that protect critical assets and infrastructure.


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## greggles (17 August 2021)

AVA divesting its services division with a Sale and Purchase Agreement signed with TTG Bidco Limited, an entity backed by funds advised by Phoenix Equity Partners Limited (United Kingdom).






This was AVA's least profitable division and was peripheral to their main operations. The sale will enable them "to fully focus on the Technology Division, growing recurring revenue and expanding into new markets and applications."

The company said that an update of their growth strategy and policies around surplus cash will be provided when they report FY2021 results on 30th August.

The market likes the transaction with the AVA share price up5.81% today to 45.5c.


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## Dona Ferentes (30 August 2021)

greggles said:


> AVA divesting its services division with a Sale and Purchase Agreement signed with TTG Bidco Limited, an entity backed by funds advised by Phoenix Equity Partners Limited (United Kingdom).
> 
> The sale will enable them "to fully focus on the Technology Division, growing recurring revenue and expanding into new markets and applications."




and an announcement of Capital management now the sale is done and dusted; The Board has the intention to use the excess capital ($40 million) to undertake the following capital management strategies:  
1. Capital Return to Shareholders: $39.2 million (circa *16 cents per share*); and  
2. On-Market Buy Back: $1.0 million       

FY2021 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Group Revenue ......... $65.0m, Up 41% on pcp
Group EBITDA .......... $16.0m, Up 116% on pcp
Technology Revenue .. $24.7m,  Up 17% on pcp
Technology EBITDA .... $8.3m, Up 64% on pcp
Services Revenue ...... $40.3m, Up 61% on pcp
Services EBITDA ........ $7.7m, Up 225% in pcp

Strong financial position with cash of $17.3m and no debt

AVA RISK GROUP POST DIVESTMENT 

_Strong uplift in Q1 FY2022 orders, continuing the momentum of Q4 FY2021 and building on the $4.3m FY2021 backlog _
_Convert Aura-IQ POV trials to generate SaaS revenue, and expand the solution with additional sensing capabilities_
_Drive BQT sales through key distributor partners in the US and Europe_
_Grow FFT long term contracts and recurring revenue from technology licencing agreements and multiyear support contracts_
_Expansion of sales capacity and revenues in the US_
_Leverage strong base to grow and close the existing projects sales opportunity pipeline_
_Expand solution fit and partner programs to enter and expand in new and growing markets: power cable, transport & Smart Cities_


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## Dona Ferentes (19 October 2021)

AVA Global Unit sold, cash awaiting payout




> Ava Risk Group CEO Rob Broomfield said: “_We are pleased to finalise the sale of Ava Global,  and wish the new owners and their management team all the very best. Management is now fully focused on our world leading Technology Division which is experiencing solid growth as we continue to build on the momentum of Q4 FY21. With a growing pipeline of sales opportunities and orders received, we are well positioned for growth in current and future years._”




• Sale price of US$46.4 million (A$62.6 million) with anticipated net cash proceeds of US$31.1 million (A$41.9 million) after closing adjustments, and payment of management incentives and FY2021 accrued bonuses
• Net cash investment return to Ava Risk Group of circa 587% 
• Ava Risk Group *now comprises *of leading security sensing solution provider *Future Fibre Technologies*, and high security access control and electronic locking provider *BQT Solutions.*


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## Dona Ferentes (28 October 2021)

_sell first ; ask questions after_

AVA down 15% of feeble results. Revenue down and guidance looks to be same. Going backwards at present.

_• Divestment of Services Division completed, delivering a cash return of $41.9m 
• Group Revenue of $15.0m for the 3 months to 30 September 2021, down 7.7% on FY2021 quarterly average
• Group Gross Margin of 38% compared to 49% for FY2021, reflecting lower IMOD licence fees and lower margins from Services Division 
• Group EBITDA of $2.0m reflecting lower sales and gross margins  
• FFT Q1 FY2022 sales revenue excluding IMOD was up 23% on FY2021 quarterly average 
• IMOD and BQT as well as converting FFT orders into sales all impacted by COVID-19 factors, including delivery delays, travel restrictions, NSW lockdowns and delayed decision making  
• Technology Division backlog of $6.5m, up 51% on Q4 FY2021 
• Strong financial position with consolidated net cash of $21m cash and no debt 
• 1H FY2022 Guidance: Group Revenue of $20.2m to $21.2m and Group EBITDA of $2.2m to $2.5m  _


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## HelloU (22 December 2021)

Annual Tip pick - Management are talking up the sales/revenue pipeline after an ordinary 2021.


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