# I predict



## MrBurns (7 October 2008)

Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
It's just lucky we have the room to move.

Savings income  will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.

ASX down to early 3000's within 6 months.

Commodity boom bust and financial institutions problems means we have nothing to hold it up.

Property will collapse within 12 months perhaps less, commercial and residential will all go

Recovery ..well cant see that far ahead just yet.

And so I advise............


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## Gundini (7 October 2008)

And so you advise what?

The end of the world as we knew it?


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## Glen48 (8 October 2008)

True so far Harvey Norman, Clive Peters, Good Guys in receivership  car yards closed down Holden Ford working a few days a week if lucky.  The Going Green boom will be starting with  Solar panels factories starting up. Houses being redesigned to a more green approach.Thousand of teen back living with Mother and bankrupt. Lambo's turned in to work Ute's.
Houses prices still going down with years to go until the Bottom. President Obama laid to rest. Palin trying to put Moose in her Hair. Plasma TV's  buy one get one free.. OZ dollar on the way up at last. Inflation under control Newspaper now $6.50 a copy. One bank in trouble another rumours.
Un employment high for shop  office workers. Caravans in people back yards cheap rent to help with home owners income. 

Remind me next years how we went.


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## moXJO (8 October 2008)

Whens that carbon tax coming into effect? The timing could make it messy


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## MrBurns (8 October 2008)

Gundini said:


> And so you advise what?
> 
> The end of the world as we knew it?




I advise to get out of debt as much debt as you can ASAP if possible.

It's happening before our eyes as I write this, the RBA will lower interest rates again very soon to try to slow things down, thank goodness we have a buffer there but it wont stop the rot.

This is a clean out of all the BS "no interest no repayments til 2020" Harvey Norman type activity and a lot of other similar practices.

So thats all over now, the whole scene will change so prepare yourself for a much simpler life without the hyperdebt mentality.


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## Sean K (8 October 2008)

I predict that if this all goes worse case the world will be at war not too long after.


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## MrBurns (8 October 2008)

kennas said:


> I predict that if this all goes worse case the world will be at war not too long after.




I was waiting for someone to bring that up, I too have the fear that if someone tries to take advantage of the crises ie: Russia or Pakistan it would immediately bring the whole system down.

This is the exact climate for war to break out, let's hope we're wrong.

As bad as things are it can very easily slip into a chasm that you never imagined possible.


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## nioka (8 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> I advise to get out of debt as much debt as you can ASAP if possible..




Wrong again. There is never a good time to get into debt but once there you have to select the right time to exit. To exit without an exit strategy can prove very expensive. Why sell assets below value just to get out of debt. Do a "Centro" and negotiate your way out at a time to suit you. Dont be a lemming.


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## Sean K (8 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> I was waiting for someone to bring that up, I too have the fear that if someone tries to take advantage of the crises ie: Russia or Pakistan it would immediately bring the whole system down.
> 
> This is the exact climate for war to break out, let's hope we're wrong.
> 
> As bad as things are it can very easily slip into a chasm that you never imagined possible.



The poverty that a world depression would result in will cause numerous social issues. Central Asia and the Middle East do not need too many more reasons to kick off a big one, causing many to choose a team.


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## MrBurns (8 October 2008)

nioka said:


> Why sell assets below value just to get out of debt.




I'm assuming that whatever the assets are sold for today they will be worth less in a few months time.

You wouldn't be selling assets below value as you say - the values have changed.

If you were right I'd be plunging everthing into the stock market right now, they're cheap arent they ? NO this is their new lower value.


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## jonnycage (8 October 2008)

you heard it, run to the hills people its the end of the world.


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## MrBurns (8 October 2008)

jonnycage said:


> you heard it, run to the hills people its the end of the world.




There's no room the hills are full of Lehman execs.


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## Temjin (8 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> I was waiting for someone to bring that up, I too have the fear that if someone tries to take advantage of the crises ie: Russia or Pakistan it would immediately bring the whole system down.
> 
> This is the exact climate for war to break out, let's hope we're wrong.
> 
> As bad as things are it can very easily slip into a chasm that you never imagined possible.




I thought WW2 is what took Amercian out of its economy decline/stagnation by being a manufacturing powerhouse?


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## Knobby22 (8 October 2008)

Temjin said:


> I thought WW2 is what took Amercian out of its economy decline/stagnation by being a manufacturing powerhouse?




It was actually the "Panic of 1873" that was the start of the USA being a manufacturing powerhouse. Incidentally, the panic was very similar to today. a credit squeeze which caused a depression.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873


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## dhukka (8 October 2008)

kennas said:


> I predict that if this all goes worse case the world will be at war not too long after.






MrBurns said:


> I was waiting for someone to bring that up, I too have the fear that if someone tries to take advantage of the crises ie: Russia or Pakistan it would immediately bring the whole system down.
> 
> This is the exact climate for war to break out, let's hope we're wrong.
> 
> As bad as things are it can very easily slip into a chasm that you never imagined possible.




Yeah great point and often overlooked amidst all the market hyperbole.  Their are currently cracks appearing all over the little EU experiment.


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## MrBurns (8 October 2008)

Oh dear,

Hang Seng 15871.15 -932.61 -5.55% 
AUD/USD 0.6779 -0.0378 -5.28%


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## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

predicts  a nice lil bounce tommorow


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## white_goodman (8 October 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> predicts  a nice lil bounce tommorow




i predict a 50% chance of that happening


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## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

white_goodman said:


> i predict a 50% chance of that happening




i think you may be right !


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## MrBurns (8 October 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> predicts  a nice lil bounce tommorow




Nope .........either flat or down again, there's no bargains there , BHP has hardly moved and the banks haven't been decimated yet.


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## white_goodman (8 October 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> i think you may be right !




i predict that too...

in all honesty i think we may be in for a bounce for a day then back down down


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## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Nope .........either flat or down again, there's no bargains there , BHP has hardly moved and the banks haven't been decimated yet.




time tells all and im only talking a short lived bounce 



white_goodman said:


> i predict that too...
> 
> in all honesty i think we may be in for a bounce for a day then back down down




yeah m8 , no sunshine and lollipops anywhere yet but gotta have a breath before total submersion


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## MrBurns (8 October 2008)

I'm beginning to think my original predictions time frame was way too generous, this is progressing like a run away freight train.


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## jonnycage (8 October 2008)

spot on monty,  this monster is taking over.


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## fimmwolf (8 October 2008)

> Originally posted by Mr.Burns
> Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.




I honestly hope that interest rates don't fall that far. If they do, I predict a much higher rate of inflation. A loaf of bread is already costing way too much IMO.


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## Buddy (8 October 2008)

I cant predict anything, unless of course, this is gonna get real bad.
This is a nighmare, and I seen them all since I was a lad in the fifties. Nothing was ever this bad, even '87. This is not your normal bull run, this is a crash driven by a different set of fundamentals.  It is not just herd mentality, there is something else, far more sinister, going on here.


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## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

white_goodman said:


> i predict a 50% chance of that happening




60/40 my way now


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## 2BAD4U (8 October 2008)

I predict the sun will rise in the morning. Some of us will wake up with a hangover (from alcohol and not our financial worries) and that the world won't end. People need to get over their fixation on material possessions and just enjoy life. Oh look, there's a chicken in my back yard bitchin' that the sky is falling.

**Flashes back to the 90's and starts to sing**

"Don't worry. Be 'appy."


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## MrBurns (8 October 2008)

fimmwolf said:


> I honestly hope that interest rates don't fall that far. If they do, I predict a much higher rate of inflation. A loaf of bread is already costing way too much IMO.




Only as a desperate action to keep the ecomony moving a little, you can see what the drop did yesterday though...nothing, it will have to come down a bit more first before people will start to get moving again after it bottoms out.

I hope the drop yesterday doesnt sucker people back into the property market though, that would be almost criminal.


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## MrBurns (9 October 2008)

I personally cant see any reason to buy but I predict the market will up by 100 today.

(I reserve the right to edit this prediction at any time up til 4pm)


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## 2020hindsight (9 October 2008)

mb
hope so (up 100 that is) 
and btw, I predict that a lot of us will be working way past when we planned to retire  
At least it keeps the workforce numbers up I guess.
(won't help kids trying to get jobs though  )


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## noirua (9 October 2008)

I predict that the ASX200 will hit 20,000, someday that is. Just a reminder that time will heal this blip in the countries development.


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## Aussiejeff (9 October 2008)

noirua said:


> I predict that the ASX200 will hit 20,000, someday that is. Just a reminder that time will heal this blip in the countries development.




Ah yes. Why stop at 20,000? Why not 100,000? 1,000,000?? Infinity????

That's IT!

It's the INFINITE GROWTH THEORY that will drive the planet onwards to ever greater highs.

Hmmm. I have a gut feeling that somewhere along the line, the ebullient IGT'ists might become sorely disappointed. Hope that doesn't happen in my remaining (relatively speaking) short lifetime. But I won't be at all surprised if it does come to pass before I kick the bucket.

aj


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## marcadrian (9 October 2008)

I predict close at 4300 today and then bottom out at about 4050 over the next few months following the lead from the US. Our market is becoming more closely aligned with that of the overseas markets. ie. people wake up in the morning, read about what happened overnight in the USA and then follow suit.

Still some money to be made though.. i made $100 on BHP yesterday even through all the carnage! w0o0p!


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## Glen48 (9 October 2008)

I note this down turn seem to have gotten worse since Daylight saving came in.
The only good news here in QLD the pain starts to drop off at 3pm instead of 4 now I get nogains headaches instead of megains.
Once Harvey Norman starts to go down we know the bottom is close.


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## MrBurns (9 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> I personally cant see any reason to buy but I predict the market will up by 100 today.
> 
> (I reserve the right to edit this prediction at any time up til 4pm)





Prediction adjustment - down 100 not up, if the US can reverse like that so can I

I'm yet to see great falls in the major stocks, but soon no doubt.


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## Buddy (9 October 2008)

In my mind (didn't say it out load to anyone) , I predicted 4300.
Looks like I was wrong. Now 4250.


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## Smurf1976 (9 October 2008)

Buddy said:


> I cant predict anything, unless of course, this is gonna get real bad.
> This is a nighmare, and I seen them all since I was a lad in the fifties. Nothing was ever this bad, even '87. This is not your normal bull run, this is a crash driven by a different set of fundamentals.  It is not just herd mentality, there is something else, far more sinister, going on here.



1. All the excessive leverage and other activities of the investment banks and central banks.

2. The reality that the system has either two modes - constant growth or outright collapse. Economic growth by its very nature requires energy (particularly for transport) - but with oil production flat for 3.5 years the wheels have fallen off the growth train in a big way.

We've leveraged up to the max, a strategy that relies absolutely on future growth, just as the means for growth, oil, has tapered off. That's what's different this time.

The biggest long term impact from all of this in my opinion is that it will likely cut off funding for energy development, thus accelerating the decline in oil production and halting the development of alternatives. If that does happen then we're locked in to negative GDP growth (globally) for years to come - and that's what most people call a depression.


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## gfresh (9 October 2008)

Buddy said:


> This is a nighmare, and I seen them all since I was a lad in the fifties. Nothing was ever this bad, even '87. This is not your normal bull run, this is a crash driven by a different set of fundamentals.  It is not just herd mentality, there is something else, far more sinister, going on here.




Shouldn't we almost feel a sense of privilege that we are part of history here?  When we look back we will remember that these times were the worst times in the markets. Those that follow will be looking back and analysing for the next 50 years as to why, what happened, the fallout, and the how the recovery began. The world was changed, just as the world changed after 1929. Maybe it's not something that we will be looking at fondly, but many lessons will be learned. 

In terms of our market, I have a final bastion support of 4000 on the XAO. A break of this is actually a break of a 25 year bull market that began in 1982. 

If 4000 is breached "all bets are off", and I would be looking at targets such as 3500 and a full retrace of the market since 2000... Beyond that, who knows.


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## nioka (9 October 2008)

Buddy said:


> I cant predict anything, unless of course, this is gonna get real bad.
> This is a nighmare, and I seen them all since I was a lad in the fifties. Nothing was ever this bad, even '87. This is not your normal bull run, this is a crash driven by a different set of fundamentals.  It is not just herd mentality, there is something else, far more sinister, going on here.




The difference this time,as I see it, is that the recent boom was done with "funny" money. Money that was only a figment of the imagination. It was pyramid selling on a grand scale. People buying and selling something they didn't own with money they didn't have and didn't exist. 

However I do predict that it will not last for long. This will shake out the pyramid sellers and show up the real producers of wealth who will eventually come out on top. 

A lot of young guns will have learnt the hard way that slow and steady wins the race, look after the pennies and the pounds look after themselves, neither a borrower nor a lender be, etc. The things we found out from parents who struggled to bring us up during and after the big depression.


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## Glen48 (9 October 2008)

I predict the 2M small business that are hanging on by their Finger nails will slip due to the customers not spend rather than the spending which got us in the situation.
The money supply will be tied to Gold once this sorts it self out.


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## mr_delta (9 October 2008)

Ok guys….on a serious note…I have two predictions…

Both of them are reversals of what I predicted to my group of friends a few months back….I had predicted “severe financial  market turmoils in the days ahead” and “regular air crashes”…both of them have been frightfully true so far (more than 10 air crashes in the last 4 months and the less said about the financial markets the better)…

At the time I had said that both these events will go on till the 5th of November 2008…I put this in writing on a forum today (ASF) that the last major news of this present financial turmoil and the series of Air crashes we have seen in the past few months (Qantas bungles included) will almost fade out from 05/11/2008…the residual effects will not be major news items for a few months till probably 10th January 2009 (this date will be confirmed in a day or two – I will post once again on this)…the events around 10th January will be horrifying and on the scale of September 11 attacks…


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## Green08 (9 October 2008)

mr_delta said:


> Ok guys….on a serious note…I have two predictions…





Are you taking over from Yogi's readings????  What's your source? If the Mod's were here they would make you back your predictions up with analysis


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## Buddy (9 October 2008)

mr_delta said:


> Ok guys….on a serious note…I have two predictions…
> 
> Both of them are reversals of what I predicted to my group of friends a few months back….I had predicted “severe financial  market turmoils in the days ahead” and “regular air crashes”…both of them have been frightfully true so far (more than 10 air crashes in the last 4 months and the less said about the financial markets the better)…
> 
> At the time I had said that both these events will go on till the 5th of November 2008…I put this in writing on a forum today (ASF) that the last major news of this present financial turmoil and the series of Air crashes we have seen in the past few months (Qantas bungles included) will almost fade out from 05/11/2008…the residual effects will not be major news items for a few months till probably 10th January 2009 (this date will be confirmed in a day or two – I will post once again on this)…the events around 10th January will be horrifying and on the scale of September 11 attacks…




Anything significant in your mind about 5 November? 
Of course, you do know that day is Guy Fawkes. 
Could be a really big bang! :grenade:


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## nioka (9 October 2008)

Glen48 said:


> The money supply will be tied to Gold once this sorts it self out.




 Gold is yesterdays symbolic wealth and is going the way of shells and trinkets. 

Tomorrows wealth will be based on the production of goods and services as it has been for the last 50 years. The exception being the times when people have created a money supply based on pyramid selling. The IT boom and bust is an example. We are having a mini boom and bust in uranium, iron ore and other metal stocks where some "never to be" producers cashed in and were sold on the back of the successful ones. We have had a boom and bust now of the financial world. The future is goods and services. Australia's future is tied to successful selling those goods and services to China and India.


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## nunthewiser (9 October 2008)

nioka said:


> Gold is yesterdays symbolic wealth and is going the way of shells and trinkets.




am i allowed to say "what a load of bollox" here ?


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## Sir Osisofliver (9 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> I advise to get out of debt as much debt as you can ASAP if possible.
> 
> It's happening before our eyes as I write this, *the RBA will lower interest rates again very soon to try to slow things down*, thank goodness we have a buffer there but it wont stop the rot.
> 
> ...




Emphasis mine.

So Monty...care to run past me how a drop in interest rates is meant to slow things down?

Also... 







> Only as a desperate action to keep the ecomony moving a little, you can see what the drop did yesterday though...nothing, it will have to come down a bit more first before people will start to get moving again after it bottoms out.
> 
> I hope the drop yesterday doesnt sucker people back into the property market though, that would be almost criminal.




Do you think that pricing actions by the reserve bank..

1) Work immediately and flawlessly like a well oiled machine, to bring our economy back into a perceived ideal state regardless of anything else that happens...  or

2) Are part of a chaotic and dynamic system where the exact predictability of any given action is difficult to determine accurately within a reasonably small period of time, and is more of a broad brush stroke approach which may the subject of unknowable vectors such as time lags, human emotional sentiment and chaotic human actions based upon that emotion?


Eagerly waiting.

Sir O


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## nioka (9 October 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> Gold is yesterdays symbolic wealth and is going the way of shells and trinkets.
> 
> am i allowed to say "what a load of bollox" here ?




Certainly say it. I think you are wrong. Currencies are no longer based on gold. Gold may be a refuge on a terporary basis but try walking into a shop and spending gold. Try paying someone in gold. The true value of gold will be based on how much it is used in industry. People no longer adorn themselves in gold. As I said  "gold is yesterdays symbolic wealth".


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## lular (9 October 2008)

A sign of the times?

NYC National Debt Clock runs out of digits


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## nunthewiser (9 October 2008)

apart from the fact that Gold is and has been used as a form of currency since adam was a kid , i suggest you google  gold and its uses before u call it as only used for trinkets 

cheers


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## mr_delta (9 October 2008)

Buddy said:


> Anything significant in your mind about 5 November?
> Of course, you do know that day is Guy Fawkes.
> Could be a really big bang! :grenade:




Nope not because of Guy Fawkes Day or anything...this is based on astrological events related to Planet Mercury (which controls "finance" and "communications" --> read "air travel" in this instance)...I do not have access to my original pen-and-paper analysis done a few months ago before these events...I will search at home and give you the start date of these air crashes....Nov 5 is not that far away and we can re-visit this again if there is any interest on this topic at the time...


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## kotim (9 October 2008)

We can never go back to Gold as backing for money.  Their is a finite amount of gold which means there would be a finite amount of money available.  The expansion or creation of credit is what has allowed companies to go and borrow money to do whatever they want.    If you do away with credit creation, companies cannot borrow money, hence no production and no advancement in technology etc.

We just have to have tighter controls or more transparency int he system to ensure that we don't have carnage as a follow up to super excess.

It amazes me that people think going back to the Gold standard will make a difference, yeah it certianly will but we would then have to go back many centuries and see what happens when people can't get acccess to money, they starve and their is many more poor.


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## MrBurns (9 October 2008)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> Emphasis mine.
> 
> So Monty...care to run past me how a drop in interest rates is meant to slow things down?
> 
> ...




Drop in interest rates stalls the freefall momentarily it's the only weapon they have.

Also - part 2/

The Govt knows very little about all of this and despite advice from all corners can only realistically follow one path - talk calm and try anything.

Britain is nationalizing their whole banking system, if that isn't a sign of controlled panic what is ?

If you want to know any more my book comes out in a month - RRP $39.95

hang on phone call..................................that was my publisher make that

RRP $9.95


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## nioka (9 October 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> apart from the fact that Gold is and has been used as a form of currency since adam was a kid ,



So were shells and trinkets. Gold is near it's useby date. It is a long time since adam was a kid.


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## nunthewiser (9 October 2008)

LOL have a nice day Nioka

i do suggest you have a readup on Gold and its uses but hey if you dont thats ok too 

cheers a rolling eyed nun


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## Green08 (9 October 2008)

mr_delta said:


> will almost fade out from 05/11/2008…the residual effects will not be major news items for a few months till probably 10th January 2009 (this date will be confirmed in a day or two – I will post once again on this)…the events around 10th January will be horrifying and on the scale of September 11 attacks…




Do you realise Mr Delta that there are many here teetering on the verge of physiological breakdown from severe losses and your questionable "sagely" advise is not helping.

If this is your idea of a joke it is in poor taste as there are those who are truly traumatized will have a harder time mentally taking your elusive ideas on.

Even Nostradamus was off the charts on things.  

Please confirm why the given dates are so important with charts. Why you propose the 10th of January is 'horrifying' please clarify what you mean by this definition and what exactly will happen.


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## Julia (9 October 2008)

mr_delta said:


> Nope not because of Guy Fawkes Day or anything...this is based on astrological events related to Planet Mercury (which controls "finance" and "communications" --> read "air travel" in this instance)...I do not have access to my original pen-and-paper analysis done a few months ago before these events...I will search at home and give you the start date of these air crashes....Nov 5 is not that far away and we can re-visit this again if there is any interest on this topic at the time...




Okey Dokey, Mr Delta.   Many thanks.  Will prepare accordingly.

Will file this away with the prediction from my Seventh Day Adventist friend who advises that the Bible foresaw the fall of the mighty USA.   She suggests we should prepare for the coming take over of the world and all its functions, financial and otherwise, by The Papacy.

Now, will go and consult my dog who has probably more wisdom to offer than either the stars or the Bible right now.


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## xyzedarteerf (9 October 2008)

I predict that GM will Miraculously remember that they already had an Electric Car - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Killed_the_Electric_Car%3F


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## Ageo (9 October 2008)

nioka said:


> Try paying someone in gold. The true value of gold will be based on how much it is used in industry. People no longer adorn themselves in gold. As I said  "gold is yesterdays symbolic wealth".




hmmm interesting you brought that up, people have always used gold as currency when purchasing jewellery but lately its been crazy, 2ndhand jewellery has been a currency within the jewellery industry here as people have more access(and faith) to that then cash/credit. Not sure if it will spring out of the jewellery industry and used in other areas but i have seen even pawn brokers now accepting gold jewellery instead of cash when purchasing items.

The thing is people have stocked up over the yrs (if your a wog you know what im talking about)when the price was low and now using it as a form of currency.

Im not saying this is the way just pointing out whats actually happening within 1 industry


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## nunthewiser (9 October 2008)

Ageo said:


> hmmm interesting you brought that up, people have always used gold as currency when purchasing jewellery but lately its been crazy, 2ndhand jewellery has been a currency within the jewellery industry here as people have more access(and faith) to that then cash/credit. Not sure if it will spring out of the jewellery industry and used in other areas but i have seen even pawn brokers now accepting gold jewellery instead of cash when purchasing items.
> 
> The thing is people have stocked up over the yrs (if your a wog you know what im talking about)when the price was low and now using it as a form of currency.
> 
> Im not saying this is the way just pointing out whats actually happening within 1 industry




mmmmmmmmm I did not post THIS.....Nioka did , its got mixed up somwhere   Quote:


Try paying someone in gold. The true value of gold will be based on how much it is used in industry. People no longer adorn themselves in gold. As I said "gold is yesterdays symbolic wealth". 

scroll back


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## nunthewiser (9 October 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> apart from the fact that Gold is and has been used as a form of currency since adam was a kid , i suggest you google  gold and its uses before u call it as only used for trinkets
> 
> cheers




THATS MY QUOTE


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## MrBurns (9 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Prediction adjustment - down 100 not up, if the US can reverse like that so can I




Only out by 20 points.


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## nunthewiser (9 October 2008)

thanks joe


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## Ageo (9 October 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> THATS MY QUOTE





i wasnt referring to your post but noika's post


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## marcadrian (9 October 2008)

I don't quite get gold. We dig it up out of a hole (somewhere in Africa?) and then put it back into a hole in a bank (somewhere in the West?). It has no utility, doesn't smell nice, and can't be eaten. To whoever made the comments about the wogs get your facts right - they moved onto diamonds long ago after their educated kids went to college and became doctors and lawyers. I should know, I am one of those kids and diamonds are expected now 

So is it wrong to actually be excited about what is going on now? All these years i've felt I wasn't as good as everyone else making bucket loads of money. Now it is my turn to sit on my lump of cash and watch as people's equity evaporates.  Does anyone else feel this way?


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## nunthewiser (9 October 2008)

Ageo said:


> i wasnt referring to your post but noika's post




LOL yeah i know but the quote originally came out with my name attached , was obviously a glitch somewhere , joe fixed it all sweet.


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## Ageo (9 October 2008)

marcadrian said:


> I don't quite get gold. We dig it up out of a hole (somewhere in Africa?) and then put it back into a hole in a bank (somewhere in the West?). It has no utility, doesn't smell nice, and can't be eaten. To whoever made the comments about the wogs get your facts right - they moved onto diamonds long ago after their educated kids went to college and became doctors and lawyers. I should know, I am one of those kids and diamonds are expected now
> /QUOTE]
> 
> I made that comment and yes i am a wog (italian), and unfortunately your wrong, people dont collect diamonds and when there is religious events like a baptism, communion etc.. they give gold not diamonds. Diamonds are a prestige luxury and once its cut you cant melt it down again (thats why they are higher in value than gold). Everyone you know just ask them how much gold they have compared to diamonds. Also gold is much easier to value and much much more liquid. Out of all the precious metals gold is the best by far in terms of overall investment (i.e value, liquidity, storage etc..).


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## Smurf1976 (9 October 2008)

kotim said:


> We can never go back to Gold as backing for money.  Their is a finite amount of gold which means there would be a finite amount of money available.  The expansion or creation of credit is what has allowed companies to go and borrow money to do whatever they want.    If you do away with credit creation, companies cannot borrow money, hence no production and no advancement in technology etc.
> 
> We just have to have tighter controls or more transparency int he system to ensure that we don't have carnage as a follow up to super excess.
> 
> It amazes me that people think going back to the Gold standard will make a difference, yeah it certianly will but we would then have to go back many centuries and see what happens when people can't get acccess to money, they starve and their is many more poor.



It worked perfectly well just a few decades ago and there was plenty of business development and technological advancement going on at the time. 

What's changed that would stop it working now?


----------



## Glen48 (9 October 2008)

We need to tie Paper money to some standard or reference point and Gold or the price of is the answer We are in this trouble because we created money out of nothing.


----------



## marcadrian (9 October 2008)

Ageo, anch'io sono italiano. I have enough gold from my baptism and communion to fund a small arms race. It is an old school way of thinking though... I can't bring myself to fork out cash for it. My wife is from a Viet background and they love gold too, but when they can they upgrade to diamonds. 

I don't know much about gold... what happens when they discover a new mine somewhere and the supply increases by a huge amount? Does it dilute the existing value?


----------



## Dukey (9 October 2008)

Julia said:


> Okey Dokey, Mr Delta.   Many thanks.  Will prepare accordingly.
> 
> Will file this away with the prediction from my Seventh Day Adventist friend who advises that the Bible foresaw the fall of the mighty USA.   She suggests we should prepare for the coming take over of the world and all its functions, financial and otherwise, by The Papacy.
> 
> Now, will go and consult my dog who has probably more wisdom to offer than either the stars or the Bible right now.




i think you're onto a good thing there Julia... your dog that is...

my budgie says today is the day.... and 4291(.3) IS the bottom... so I'm gonna go out on a limb and CALL IT... RIGHT HERE,.... RIGHT NOW....
cause my budgie said so......
So remember it folks - Dukey and his budgie.... Oct 9 2008: XAO at 4291 = THE BOTTOM.

yeehah....:cowboy:

..... and if Inspector Rex (my budgie) is right - he'll buy you all a bag of birdseed.


----------



## nioka (9 October 2008)

Dukey said:


> i think you're onto a good thing there Julia... your dog that is...
> 
> my budgie says today is the day.... and 4291(.3) IS the bottom... so I'm gonna go out on a limb and CALL IT... RIGHT HERE,.... RIGHT NOW....
> cause my budgie said so......
> ...




 And if he is wrong here is a good way to cook a budgie.

Place one dressed budgie in a saucepan of water. Add two onions, a little salt and a glass marble. Boil for 3 hours. Eat the glass marble, throw away the rest.


----------



## grace (9 October 2008)

Dukey said:


> i think you're onto a good thing there Julia... your dog that is...
> 
> my budgie says today is the day.... and 4291(.3) IS the bottom... so I'm gonna go out on a limb and CALL IT... RIGHT HERE,.... RIGHT NOW....
> cause my budgie said so......
> ...




Geez, I hope you're right.  I can't agree with you though at this point in time. 

I think when Alan Kohler now presents Finance at the beginning of the news, instead of at about 7.20pm, and the media just won't leave the subject alone, the feeding frenzy continues.

Perhaps we might be in for a little bounce though.


----------



## Ageo (9 October 2008)

marcadrian said:


> Ageo, anch'io sono italiano. I have enough gold from my baptism and communion to fund a small arms race. It is an old school way of thinking though... I can't bring myself to fork out cash for it. My wife is from a Viet background and they love gold too, but when they can they upgrade to diamonds.
> 
> I don't know much about gold... what happens when they discover a new mine somewhere and the supply increases by a huge amount? Does it dilute the existing value?




 You see having gold from a small age cant be that bad? i mean look how much its worth now? people dont realise but 1kg of 18ct gold jewellery (even if its broken) is worth around $30,000 and yes thats selling it as is (not refining etc..). 

Diamond values are worked out differently (cut/size/clarity etc..) i had 1 lady sell me her gold which she was shocked to work out that their was $50,000 in her jewellery chests (she was indian and thats all the gifts she had collected over time). As for your question regarding supply well it can and it cant dilute the existing value but i will let someone with more experience answer that question


----------



## Gundini (9 October 2008)

nioka said:


> And if he is wrong here is a good way to cook a budgie.
> 
> Place one dressed budgie in a saucepan of water. Add two onions, a little salt and a glass marble. Boil for 3 hours. Eat the glass marble, throw away the rest.




And for those who don't know how to cook, simply take the ingredients out of the cupboard or cage, and throw them in the bin. This way, you still get to enjoy the glass marble, you don't have to wash the saucepan, and you save the valuable resource, water!


----------



## Dukey (9 October 2008)

Gundini said:


> And for those who don't know how to cook, simply take the ingredients out of the cupboard or cage, and throw them in the bin. This way, you still get to enjoy the glass marble, you don't have to wash the saucepan, and you save the valuable resource, water!






How dare you nasty folks malign Inspector Rex!!! ...  or his predictions.

Didn't you know - Nostradamus had a budgie?
... behind every great Man or woman..... there is a small bird. tweeting merrily away.


----------



## Gundini (9 October 2008)

Dukey said:


> How dare you nasty folks malign Inspector Rex!!! ...  or his predictions.
> 
> Didn't you know - Nostradamus had a budgie?
> ... behind every great Man or woman..... there is a small bird. tweeting merrily away.




Quite the contrary, I am very fond of the budgie. In fact, I remember the "bell ringer" made a fabulous contribution in alerting us to a major turning point some years ago!

Is this the culprit?


----------



## Dukey (10 October 2008)

Goddamn!!
thems big budgies you got there.... whad you feed 'em?
Equine growth serum?


----------



## Fleeta (10 October 2008)

Anyone care to predict how long it will take to get from the bottom (wherever that is) to hit a new high? Isn't it normally about 3-5 years? Any reason why it should be longer this time?


----------



## Sean K (10 October 2008)

Fleeta said:


> Anyone care to predict how long it will take to get from the bottom (wherever that is) to hit a new high? Isn't it normally about 3-5 years? Any reason why it should be longer this time?



Radge put 7 years on it. Took 10 years to recover from the last 50% drop I think I heard, but that might have been the Dow. I reckon somewhere between now and then.


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 October 2008)

kennas said:


> Radge put 7 years on it. Took 10 years to recover from the last 50% drop I think I heard, but that might have been the Dow. I reckon somewhere between now and then.




Well, the ONE THING I feel confident in predicting is **SH#T HAPPENS**

Just gotta live with it....


----------



## Dukey (10 October 2008)

Dukey said:


> i think you're onto a good thing there Julia... your dog that is...
> 
> my budgie says today is the day.... and 4291(.3) IS the bottom... so I'm gonna go out on a limb and CALL IT... RIGHT HERE,.... RIGHT NOW....
> cause my budgie said so......
> ...




_*
In Memorium

Inspector Rex - mucho beloved budgie friend (and financial advisor) of Dukey croaked peacefully in his sleep last night. 
There are no suspicious circumstances.
We commend his body back to the soil from which we all come.
We commend his soul to return to the guiding spirit of Nature.  :engel: :engel:

(Mourners are asked to give generously to the charity of their choice - someones gonna need it very soon!)

*_----------------------------------------------------------------------------

_Regards and best of luck all in these tough and turbulent times - Dukey. :70:
_


----------



## MrBurns (10 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
> It's just lucky we have the room to move.
> 
> Savings income  will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.
> ...




Silly me I meant low 3000's by the end of today.


----------



## 2BAD4U (10 October 2008)

Dukey said:


> (Mourners are asked to give generously to the charity of their choice - someones gonna need it very soon!)





Do the markets constitute a charity because I've got nothing left to give.


----------



## Calliope (10 October 2008)

I predict that before very long shanty towns and hobo jungles will start springing up in America. Soup kitchens will be opened up. Overseas troops will be brought home. Fighting terrorists overseas is no longer affordable. Civil unrest at home will be the problem.

I have listened to the presidential debates. They both have solutions. 

And pigs might fly.


----------



## basilio (10 October 2008)

The shanty towns are already up and, just like the 30's, people are being forced to move on.

But this is 70 years later so the more prosperous rolleyes: homeless are living in their 4x 4's in special carparks. Been going on since earlier this year.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/26/usa.creditcrunch

I think that unless there is a massive government/community led work program  unemployment, personal depression and social upheaval will play havoc with the states. And we may not be far behind.

One last comment. Are you aware that President of the US has the power to declare a state of national emergency, suspend elections and continue in a martial law situation?


----------



## xyzedarteerf (10 October 2008)

I predict a global bank holiday in a couple of days to temporarily stop the panic.


----------



## Buddy (10 October 2008)

On the other thread about the bailout, and what's next there is an interesting article from Gold-Eagle.com.
I guess if it's true, then we should know shortly (maybe a few weeks) whether the conspiracy theorists were correct. Resulting in predictions (at least in the U.S.A.) of:-
Martial law, suspension of elections, Bush in power forever. Troops shooting their own citizens (nothing new in that of course in the good old US of A).
Massive bank foreclosures. Major companies down the gurgler. General Mayhem.
Splits in the earth's crust, fire and brimstone spewing out everywhere, dog and cats copulating........ you know the normal sort of stuff.

Personally I think(hope) this is all B.S.


----------



## Dukey (10 October 2008)

Calliope said:


> I predict that before very long shanty towns and hobo jungles will start springing up in America. Soup kitchens will be opened up. Overseas troops will be brought home. Fighting terrorists overseas is no longer affordable. Civil unrest at home will be the problem.
> 
> I have listened to the presidential debates. They both have solutions.
> 
> And pigs might fly.




Have a look at Bod Dylans movie 'masked and anonymous'

Great artistic movie. - a barely fictional portrayal of the USA as an oversized banana republic run by fascists. 

- many fine performances from A list actors keen to work with Dylan.

I hope the guy is NOT some kind of prophet cause the vision he presents in the movie is f'ing scary.... but maybe not impossible given whats going on now


----------



## MrBurns (11 October 2008)

basilio said:


> One last comment. Are you aware that President of the US has the power to declare a state of national emergency, suspend elections and continue in a martial law situation?




When he uses the term "national emergency" run for your life.


----------



## MrBurns (17 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
> It's just lucky we have the room to move.
> 
> Savings income  will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.
> ...




It's all coming true !

BTW - I notice Rudd, the drama queen has called another talk fest , spot of lunch with the rich and famous, few drinks afterwards just to toss a few ideas around, grandstanding again boring everyone s***less again - I can hear the groans as they open their invitations now, I've got a good idea Mr Rudd why dont you resign and let Lindsay Tanner have a go at least he appears to know whats going on.

At least drop the attempt to sacrifice first home buyers with your latest bribe, or undertake to bail them out when the housing market falls over ....you increasingly irritating incompetant tosser.


----------



## Julia (17 October 2008)

That might be a bit harsh, Mr Burns.  I think under all the circumstances, a gathering of business leaders is pretty appropriate.


----------



## MrBurns (17 October 2008)

Julia said:


> That might be a bit harsh, Mr Burns.  I think under all the circumstances, a gathering of business leaders is pretty appropriate.




Yes I did lose it there a bit, he just has to make a dramatic scene out of everything.

Why doesnt he just call them to get their feedback ? Oh yeah no grandstanding in it that way.


----------



## 2020hindsight (18 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> At least drop the attempt to sacrifice first home buyers with your latest bribe, or undertake to bail them out when the housing market falls over ....you increasingly irritating incompetant tosser.




MB
so you think he's talking first home buyer grants to bribe them?

careful man, you run the risk of becoming increasingly irritating and inaccurate here


----------



## MrBurns (18 October 2008)

2020hindsight said:


> MB
> so you think he's talking first home buyer grants to bribe them?
> 
> careful man, you run the risk of becoming increasingly irritating and inaccurate here




Yes thats right 2020 using first home buyers to try to prop up a doomed property market, they will be the sacrificial lambs because the market will fall anyway taking them with it. 

But hey ! Rudd tried didn't he ? put all those first home buyers into the path of the runaway property train too bad about them though.

I find that very irritating 2020 and there's nothing inaccurate about my comments.


----------



## 2020hindsight (18 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Yes thats right 2020 using first home buyers to try to prop up a doomed property market, they will be the sacrificial lambs because the market will fall anyway taking them with it.
> 
> But hey ! Rudd tried didn't he ? put all those first home buyers into the path of the runaway property train too bad about them though.
> 
> I find that very irritating 2020 and there's nothing inaccurate about my comments.



MB
thanks for the added detail

It can't be easy - trying to find an answer to this.  
Certainly all property would surely become a bit more optimistic - prices going up on the rumour etc - might also help the building industry etc etc 
just thinking aloud. 

I'll read a bit more before taking you on lol.

PS I predict , when I lose my house, that I'll talk one of the kids into buying their first home - and the missus and I can then MOVE IN WITH THEM for a change ! lol


----------



## MrBurns (18 October 2008)

2020hindsight said:


> MB
> 
> PS I predict , when I lose my house, that I'll talk one of the kids into buying their first home - and the missus and I can then MOVE IN WITH THEM for a change ! lol




LOL - Fat chance of that, it only works one way you know.

P/S Hope I'm wrong about the market but I don't think so, it's already down 15% in my estimation.


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> It's all coming true !
> 
> BTW - I notice Rudd, the drama queen has called another talk fest , spot of lunch with the rich and famous, few drinks afterwards just to toss a few ideas around, grandstanding again boring everyone s***less again




Hmmm, detect a hint of *jealousy* here.



> - I can hear the groans as they open their invitations now, I've got a good idea Mr Rudd why dont you resign and let Lindsay Tanner have a go at least he appears to know whats going on.




*Discontentment* manifesting in this. 



> At least drop the attempt to sacrifice first home buyers with your latest bribe, or undertake to bail them out when the housing market falls over ....you increasingly irritating incompetant tosser.




Deep seated *bitterness* released here. (exhaustion, relief, gratification, pleasure)


----------



## MrBurns (18 October 2008)

Wysiwyg said:


> Hmmm, detect a hint of *jealousy* here.
> 
> *Discontentment* manifesting in this.
> 
> Deep seated *bitterness* released here. (exhaustion, relief, gratification, pleasure)




No jealousy

No discontentment

Bitter about the first home buyers bribe.

Exhaustion ? hardly.

Relief, gratification, pleasure. Out of control rant more like it.


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> No jealousy
> 
> No discontentment
> 
> ...




However Mr. Burns, I do see Kevin Rudd flexing his "control" muscle.

When self is understood, then ego is less resistant.


----------



## MrBurns (18 October 2008)

Wysiwyg said:


> However Mr. Burns, I do see Kevin Rudd flexing his "control" muscle.
> 
> When self is understood, then ego is less resistant.




Are you a psychiatrist or just a patient ?


----------



## Glen48 (18 October 2008)

Is the First homers $$ to prop up the banks or builders?
Rudd must know houses are going down and the FHO will owe more than what the place is worth before they move in.


----------



## MrBurns (18 October 2008)

Glen48 said:


> Is the First homers $$ to prop up the banks or builders?
> Rudd must know houses are going down and the FHO will owe more than what the place is worth before they move in.




Both really, if the housing sector falters it drags on the whole economy.

Trouble is Rudd or anyone else cant change whats going to happen but I guess he has to try, but he should not be using new home buyers as canon fodder.


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Are you a psychiatrist or just a patient ?




They (past connections and their societal puppets) wanted me to play patient.Upon realising this I decided to become the ..... observer.

I often observe, intently sometimes, the functions of human being.At this stage I have found there is much more anger/resentment/revenge/payback/tit for tat/bitterness than ever before in history (apart from the world wars which were of a different reason).

A capitalist society is a competitive one in which someone wins and someone loses.

Money (power, control) versus no money (desperate, prisoner, depressed) 

So to answer your question, BOTH.


----------



## 2020hindsight (18 October 2008)

hey burnsy - just a bit of light relief ok?  (in between mowing, planting yet more pumpkins and stuff  

PS I'm working on a pumpkin lead recovery here.  :2two XXX 1onecent

PS I realise it's unkosher to take a swipe at someone's nic - just that you seem to enjoy Mr burn's style 

 "they xerox their buttocks
and do it on company time" lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21wjkle8P2A&feature=related
Mr Burns the boss ..


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 October 2008)

People are only nice to each other because simmering below the surface are the suppressed nasty bits which they don`t want to reveal.


----------



## MrBurns (18 October 2008)

Wysiwyg said:


> They (past connections and their societal puppets) wanted me to play patient.Upon realising this I decided to become the ..... observer.
> 
> I often observe, intently sometimes, the functions of human being.At this stage I have found there is much more anger/resentment/revenge/payback/tit for tat/bitterness than ever before in history (apart from the world wars which were of a different reason).
> 
> ...





Yes road rage up everything is anger, competitiveness and rather unpleasant.

The media have to shoulder much of the blame they incite unrest and then report it for their own profit, but that's democracy for you.


----------



## MrBurns (18 October 2008)

2020hindsight said:


> hey burnsy - just a bit of light relief ok?  (in between mowing, planting yet more pumpkins and stuff
> 
> PS I'm working on a pumpkin lead recovery here.  :2two XXX 1onecent
> 
> ...




Excellent, I wasnt aware that I could sing


----------



## Stan 101 (18 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Yes thats right 2020 using first home buyers to try to prop up a doomed property market, they will be the sacrificial lambs because the market will fall anyway taking them with it.




Mr Burns, where are you getting your data from? BIS Shrapnel? HIA? BSA?

There are still lines of people looking for rental property. Affordable entry level housing will be in very strong demand. Real estate may well retrace, but how can you call a first home buyer a sacrificail lamb if they are in for the long haul? A $300k house in suburbia looks a hell of a lot more attractive with a $21k discount and possible stamp duty exclusions. With a 10% deposit on a standard variable loan you are looking at about $1900 p/m + mortgage insurance.
With a 20% deposit it's even easier breathing.

Townhouses coming in at just on $200k will have first home owners in better shape even when taking into account rates and body corp / sinking funds.

There is a lot being done in the industry with innovative products and new building practices to help lower rising costs. Steel prices will settle ( I bet the steel industry wished they locked in contracts longer than the six months they have been offering to heavyweights) as offshore demand retraces. Expect these new innovations to hit the market in the new year. Patents have been lodged and trials are being completed.

There are great opportunities to buy and have been for the last 3 years. There are still places 90 minutes from Brisbane CBD with great offerings for less than $200k with excellent rental returns.

Yep, we are in for some more shocks, but the sky hasn't fallen and it is unlikely to IMO. I guess we have a differing opinion on these matters.


cheers,


----------



## Julia (18 October 2008)

Wysiwyg said:


> People are only nice to each other because simmering below the surface are the suppressed nasty bits which they don`t want to reveal.




Really?   Perhaps, then, I'm naive but I have found most people to be pretty decent, capable of kindness, and on the whole reasonably likeable.


----------



## MrBurns (18 October 2008)

Stan 101 said:


> Mr Burns, where are you getting your data from? BIS Shrapnel? HIA? BSA?
> 
> Where do I get my data from ? I've been there and done that before, early 90's, whats coming is as plain as the nose on your face.
> 
> ...





This deal is only available till June next year, there's a reason for this , Rudd needs people to buy into this market NOW, you're average Joe isn't that stupid so he bribes first home buyers.

Sacrificial lambs because even though they are in for the long haul many wont make it because of whats to come it wont be just the price drop it will be job losses which Rudd has already admitted will happen in a big way, how can that p**ck tell people jobs will go then entice them into the housing market ? It's incredible.

The extra 10-15 or 20 K they get wont be worth a crumpet when the prices fall and there are job losses.

I was talking Melbourne but it will happen all over even in sunny Qld.


----------



## Stan 101 (18 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> This deal is only available till June next year, there's a reason for this , Rudd needs people to buy into this market NOW, you're average Joe isn't that stupid so he bribes first home buyers.
> 
> Sacrificial lambs because even though they are in for the long haul many wont make it because of whats to come it wont be just the price drop it will be job losses which Rudd has already admitted will happen in a big way, how can that p**ck tell people jobs will go then entice them into the housing market ? It's incredible.
> 
> ...





mr Burns, I don't want to sound like I'm singling you out. But I must ask where your insights are coming from? I do understand this is a "prediction" thread, but unless you are in our mate Yogi's realm, it seems you just have a total disregard for one Mr Rudd and all your predictions are based in contempt for him and him alone.

Cheers,


----------



## MrBurns (18 October 2008)

Stan 101 said:


> mr Burns, I don't want to sound like I'm singling you out. But I must ask where your insights are coming from? I do understand this is a "prediction" thread, but unless you are in our mate Yogi's realm, it seems you just have a total disregard for one Mr Rudd and all your predictions are based in contempt for him and him alone.
> 
> Cheers,




Sorry if it comes across that way, I'm just disappointed with him along with a lot of others. When he was first elected I was impressed... but no more.

I've been there before in the crash of the early 90's. I live in an upmarket Melbourne suburb and my home value dropped 30% then.

This economic scene is far far worse so what can we expect this time, it seems obvious it will be worse, by how much who can tell.


----------



## So_Cynical (18 October 2008)

nioka said:


> People no longer adorn themselves in gold.




Yes they do...in India, China and Africa...and its somewhat cultural.


----------



## treefrog (18 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> This deal is only available till June next year, there's a reason for this , Rudd needs people to buy into this market NOW, you're average Joe isn't that stupid so he bribes first home buyers.
> 
> Sacrificial lambs because even though they are in for the long haul many wont make it because of whats to come it wont be just the price drop it will be job losses which Rudd has already admitted will happen in a big way, how can that p**ck tell people jobs will go then entice them into the housing market ? It's incredible.
> 
> ...




agrees with the guy with the long nose.
perhaps our govt. doesn't understand that all this mess started with sub-prime (+derivitives): ie lending to those not able to afford housing at the current prices - the dominoes started to fall long before significant jobs were  lost.
govt. now appears to be saying; don't worry about sub-prime, we can do it with free deposits - that's different! yeah like how?
::
the current crop of youngsters have no idea about saving and spending wisely - there has never been a need to do that for 2 generations so why will it change??
sorry but it already has but the govt is saying, don't worry folks - we are here with a huge surplus: just carry on being stupid and we will bail you out as the provider of last resort. 
The school of hard knocks has reopened folks.


----------



## MrBurns (18 October 2008)

There was someone from a welfare group on the ABC news who stated almost exactly what I've said so lets hope the message gets through.


----------



## 2020hindsight (18 October 2008)

2020hindsight said:


> "they xerox their buttocks
> and do it on company time" lol
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21wjkle8P2A&feature=related
> Mr Burns the boss ..






			
				Mr Burns said:
			
		

> Excellent, I wasnt aware that I could sing




:topic  Warning to people attending Xmas parties !!! ok ??!!

 Completely off topic - just that I knew a girl who worked in an office in town - one Xmas party had a bit too much to drink - and flinging caution and her nickers to the wind - sat on the xerox machine   .. 

PS I predict she won't get that drunk again


----------



## Stan 101 (18 October 2008)

treefrog said:


> agrees with the guy with the long nose.
> perhaps our govt. doesn't understand that all this mess started with sub-prime (+derivitives)




Treefrog, there is a big difference to the NINJA loans in the States and our "no doc" loans. So different I can't even comprehend how you can compare them? Are you aware of the differences between an Australian loan and these NiNJAs that have flooded America?
We don't have the low, low honeymoon rates and then the huge increase 2 years or so down the track. Also, I would like to know how you can simply walk away from a home and the associated loan executed in Australia without the bank chasing you down to the ends of the earth.

We have basic regulations to save stupid/ignorant/desperate people from taking on debt they can't afford. The Americans, it seems in hindsite, certainly didn't/don't care about the consumer and allow truly devious consortiums to sign up people knowing full well that after the honeymoon period the extra 10% or whatever they can hide in the fine print, will sink them. The other option was to refinance before the high rates kicked in, with the assumption there would be equity due to a growing market. The market stopped growing. Opps! God bless America's free markets.


So tell me, please how is the US's NINJAs in any way like Australia's lending practices?

But I digress. So an Aussie battler is having issues paying off the P+I on a loan. They can wander down to the local branch and change to IO for a bit of breathing space or they sell. If they lose, bad luck. People have lost in property before and we were apparently in good market conditions. Their stuff up. Put the loss down to tuition and start saving hard again.

Australian people who in the most were stupid enough to buy half the catalogue of the Harvey Norman summer sale because they had new found equity in their homes without realising they need to pay it back again will struggle.
People who geared too heavily in real estate will struggle. The hard working couple who did the savings whilst their friends were buying ipods and mobile phones deserve to have a break from our government to help get into that house / unit or whatever. Money is still tight so if the banks don't see a saving history and just a lump sum from the government, I think they'll think twice for a year or two.

cheers,


----------



## 2020hindsight (24 October 2008)

I predict that "this too shall pass"


----------



## MrBurns (24 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
> It's just lucky we have the room to move.
> 
> Savings income  will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.
> ...




On track................


----------



## Gundini (24 October 2008)

Interest rates falling by 2-3% would help me finance a new fence to keep the undesirables at bay. 

Maybe we should consider a moat!


----------



## MS+Tradesim (24 October 2008)

I predict a rise in nationalist movements and socialist and protectionist policies. Countries will move to tighten their borders, electronic and possibly physical.

I predict civil unrest in quite a few countries.


----------



## gfresh (26 October 2008)

I think we will soon be heading for massive inflation, which is really going to destroy retail, especially under a recessionary environment. 

First of all our dollar has crashed some 20% in the last 2 months against the USD. I cannot see this having anything less than major effects on pricing on consumer items, as I can't see retailers wearing these sorts of changes in their margins. 

As the Chinese currency is pegged to the USD, there is a direct attachment to all "cheap" chinese imports. At a guestimate that makes up some 80% of all the regular items we buy - cheap clothes, furniture, computers, electronics goods. Instantly up by 20% next year?

The Japanese yen has also soared against the AUD with the end of the carry trade, further putting pressures on items from Japan. I am thinking here some electronics, industrial machinery and most importantly new cars. As one of our largest trading partners there are no doubt other imports which will be effected. 

Building materials will increase even further, making the cost of building new homes/projects very difficult at prices people can afford. 

Soon I also expect credit inflation to really kick in. I think we are in the honeymoon period still, where it has yet to really flow through. There is talk of the credit markets moderating, but that is only a short-term movement. 

Overseas banks soon will be really shutting down their lines of credit to the Aussie banks, as their own corporate borrowers default under heavy recession, and they go into major survival mode. Lending to Aus, will be the least of their priorities. 

If they see *any signs* of a recession for Australia, increased unemployment, etc their economists will also be telling them of the increased risk of lending money to the Aussies. They will be studying charts of our house prices and go "well we know where that is going" based on the bias of their own market. They will see straight through the things our local economists are hoping will protect our market, or at least choose to ignore them. End result is the same. 

While the RBA may push rates down towards 0%, which will help, for long-term funding the overseas lenders are going to require massive risk premiums. The longer the global recession goes on for, the higher odds of this happening as funding has to be rolled over. Will this mean 8/9/10%+ rates?

I can tell you this will absolutely SHATTER our housing market, who thinks they've just passed this part of the cycle. The general belief is that rates are heading back towards 6.5% mortgages. 

People are still buying in with this belief. First home buyers are going in with this belief. Investors are going in with 6.5% rates factored in, and x% yields based on this belief. *Nobody* is out there believing rates will start shooting up again, but it's the sort of *black swan* that could really destroy things.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (26 October 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> I predict a rise in nationalist movements




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13105

hmm....idle angry talk doesn't equate with nationalism but it starts somewhere.


----------



## Glen48 (26 October 2008)

Just finished watching Galapagos on ABC were every few years El Niño comes along and floods the place with fresh water thereby wiping out all the Sea foods and Moss and killing of a large percentage of the locals so no matter what you do some things are unavoidable just like what we are about to go through, no matter how much you save do things differently to avoid a disaster you will be sunk.
.


----------



## Sean K (1 November 2008)

kennas said:


> I predict that if this all goes worse case the world will be at war not too long after.



Or, even just generally, as the world grows and expands and there are more people fighting for fewer resources, things will turn ugly. 

Very ugly.

We can't even get on with our neighbours and have these huge fences up around us and double dead locked doors. 

Imaging 3b people in China in 25 years...


*World faces growing risk of conflict, says Michael McConnell *
By Jim Mannion in Washington | November 01, 2008 

THE world faces a growing risk of conflict over the next 20 to 30 years amid an unprecedented transfer of wealth and power from West to East, the US intelligence chief says.

Michael McConnell, the director of national intelligence, predicted rising demand for scarce supplies of food and fuel, strategic competition over new technologies, and the spread of weapons of mass destruction. 

By 2025, China was likely to have the world's second largest economy and to have emerged as a major military power,


----------



## Glen48 (1 November 2008)

Interest rates down by another 1% next Tuesday.


----------



## MrBurns (1 November 2008)

Glen48 said:


> Interest rates down by another 1% next Tuesday.




I think you may be right, I don't have a lot of faith in Glen Stevens, something not right there.

Bank told me yesterday, deposit rate has dropped to 6% from 7.2% I should have asked if their mortgage and credit card rates went down the same amount , bastards, I can hardly wait to draw it all out and invest it somewhere else.


----------



## MrBurns (18 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
> It's just lucky we have the room to move.
> 
> Savings income  will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.
> ...




Another correct call, I'm a ****ing genius !


----------



## jonnycage (18 November 2008)

nice work there monty.

now please predict some profits, so we can all make some more money.

jonny


----------



## professor_frink (18 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Another correct call, I'm a ****ing genius !




you make any money off that call burnsy?


----------



## nunthewiser (18 November 2008)

i think he won a badge at least


----------



## MrBurns (18 November 2008)

jonnycage said:


> nice work there monty.
> 
> now please predict some profits, so we can all make some more money.
> 
> jonny




Spoke too soon, it's still above 3500, big bounce soon, but we havent had the perfect storm yes, banks and RIO and BHP all free falling at once.

Make money ? ok here you go - 

Compadres, it is imperaitve that we crush the freedom fighters before the start of the rainy season. And remember, a shiny new donkey for whoever brings me the head of Colonel Montoya.


----------



## aleckara (18 November 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> i think he won a badge at least




I think his prediction is a very easy one to predict. The deleveraging effect is much greater (i.e the pull on spending) than the amount the governments can throw in. What they are trying to do is restore confidence to stop this slide, and do so with the greatest bang for their buck.

In other words their spending does very little however if people believe it will change something then it will stop the deleveraging or at least slow it down - which I believe it has.
there's always risk factors that can change your prediction making it a risky punt. if you go short and the government announces some stimulus package or two and the market rallies for a little while. ironically governments around the world are the only risk factor to real easy money.


----------



## MrBurns (18 November 2008)

professor_frink said:


> you make any money off that call burnsy?




Not a cent, you dont believe I'd take my own advice when there are perfectly good Financial Advisors out there ?


----------



## korrupt_1 (18 November 2008)

if someone last year said to me that they predict XAO will be 3500... i'd book them into a mental asylum and ask that the keys to be thrown away....

what a prediction that would have been...

now what is the latest prediction now? 1500??? surely there's got to be 'value' somewhere?


----------



## professor_frink (18 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Make money ? ok here you go -
> 
> Compadres, it is imperaitve that we crush the freedom fighters before the start of the rainy season. And remember, a shiny new donkey for whoever brings me the head of Colonel Montoya.




And by that I mean, it's time for the worker of the week award!



MrBurns said:


> Not a cent, you dont believe I'd take my own advice when there are perfectly good Financial Advisors out there ?




Hm... a pack of vicious dogs should be ripping you to pieces. Very well. Come on in. Perhaps I have something I can scald you with. 



I was hoping for a different simpson's quote to be thrown at me then:

Lady, he's putting my kids through college


----------



## MrBurns (18 November 2008)

> +14.7% Sept08 for Frinky's waistline




Here's something else I can relate to.

The only way to lose weight is not to eat at all which is a little hard, so today I had a couple of potato cakes and half a chicken, mmmmmmm looking forward to dinner.


----------



## kirtdog (18 November 2008)

Does this means chicks will not be able to affod to get their hair done and fake tans anymore cos that would be funny ****..
I question where the best place to put our money would be?? In a safe under my bed or in a bank?? Gold bullion?? Lol


----------



## Gundini (18 November 2008)

I am considering a bottom here @ 3500 or there abouts.

Markets don't need to wait for all the bad news to come out before they factor it in. I think most of the gloom is understood and built into the index at this level.

Also the chart below would suggest a bounce from these levels off a long term rising trendline. Sorry, can't draw on this chart. 

The interest rates may also add a little support. 

I haven't invested, but may look to if this level holds.


----------



## marcadrian (18 November 2008)

I picked 3500 as a bottom for the end of October but it took a little longer than I thought. I think we need to see RECESSION HITS in the papers before it bottoms out.. it will keep dropping until someone can actually stand on top of the beast with a spear watching the dying creature finally stop twitching. Then people will know its not going to get worse, and fear will turn into acceptance as the slow process upwards begins again.

March next year is the bottom at 3000.


----------



## Gundini (18 November 2008)

You may be right with the 3000, but I think Australia may start to decouple from the US soon, and a bounce off 3500 will not suprise me. Whilst not trying to make a statement, I know I have felt the effects of our rate reductions, so others must feel a bit more comfortable than they did a couple of months ago, albeit wary.


----------



## nunthewiser (18 November 2008)

I predict that we will hit the overall bottom @............... 


the moment we hit it , not a moment before not a moment after

but other than that enjoy the tradeable bounces speaking of which one due very shortly


----------



## 1080p (18 November 2008)

I don't think we'll see the bottom until the banks finally write off the toxic debt rather than just writing it down... 

I'm convinced they're hiding more.


----------



## Glen48 (18 November 2008)

Hear a rumour that people are still taking cash out of the Banks in Gympie, I would give it some credit as well


----------



## MrBurns (18 November 2008)

Glen48 said:


> Hear a rumour that people are still taking cash out of the Banks in Gympie, I would give it some credit as well




Has anyone in Gympie got money in the bank ?


----------



## Snakey (18 November 2008)

I predict this


----------



## Gundini (18 November 2008)

I think your chart is more correct, I do hope the market maintains the trend. Fair enough too, I think we are overly punished.

IMO, the big payback day for our abuse of credit is a way down the track. 

Chuck a bit more coal in the furnice and we'll chug along a bit further on the road to riches! 

We are very resilient us human beings...


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 November 2008)

I notice on Snakeys chart we couldn`t make 1000 points in six years from 1998 to 2004.

Once this bottom is in I suppose a flat/slow growth phase over 3 years.


----------



## Gundini (18 November 2008)

Yes, it seems, 1000 pts, or 40% is not that flash for investments over a 6 year period, especially when property doubles every 7 years.

But different vehicle choices may assist with growth. 

Gold? Currencies? Business?

Even CFD's may offer a good return because of the leverage, if u r game!


----------



## Pairs Trader (18 November 2008)

nice charts snakey, very true indeed.

just like every generation the forest catches fire, burning down, ridding itself of excess's only to create a more fertile ground for new growth, it has to happen........


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 November 2008)

Gundini said:


> Even CFD's may offer a good return because of the leverage, if u r game!




With central bank interest rates low it is probably feasible for a longer term long contract on an index, XJO or whatever sector has good growth.That is once the low is in.Interest on margin would be offset by stock dividend credits.

I want to do this and am waiting for the right time.


----------



## Whiskers (18 November 2008)

Snakey said:


> I predict this




If you look at the log chart, we're already in the despair zone.


----------



## Gundini (18 November 2008)

Have to agree, does not look pretty. 

All the same we are surely bottoming, but can anyone say that we have seen capitulation yet with any certainty?


----------



## MrBurns (18 November 2008)

Gundini said:


> Have to agree, does not look pretty.
> 
> All the same we are surely bottoming, but can anyone say that we have seen capitulation yet with any certainty?




Probably be some optimism running up to Christmas but after that I really cant see where any good news will come from.


----------



## Gundini (18 November 2008)

I can't really think of too much optimism either, must agree!


----------



## nunthewiser (18 November 2008)

Gundini said:


> Have to agree, does not look pretty.
> 
> All the same we are surely bottoming, but can anyone say that we have seen capitulation yet with any certainty?




Nope , ppl are still buying , we havent seen the masses give up yet


----------



## 1080p (18 November 2008)

We'll get an Xmas bump from KRudds handouts and then in January everyone will default on their credit cards


----------



## MrBurns (18 November 2008)

1080p said:


> We'll get an Xmas bump from KRudds handouts and then in January everyone will default on their credit cards




Spot on then Obama will give us a lift at 12:00 noon Jan 20th on Inauguration Day 2009 -  then by about 3PM that day everyone weill realise thats not going to work and well... I cant think of anything to look forward to after that except picking up bargains at some point, but of course they're only bargains if they will grow within a reasonable time.


----------



## MR. (18 November 2008)

Gundini said:


> Whilst not trying to make a statement, I know I have felt the effects of our rate reductions, so others must feel a bit more comfortable than they did a couple of months ago, albeit wary.




Wonder what people will be doing with the savings?  



MrBurns said:


> Probably be some optimism running up to Christmas but after that I really cant see where any good news will come from.




I think after christmas the real effect of this mess will be felt by the masses.  Watching for job losses.



nunthewiser said:


> Nope , ppl are still buying , we havent seen the masses give up yet




What have you read exactly?


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Spot on then Obama will give us a lift at 12:00 noon Jan 20th on Inauguration Day 2009 -  then by about 3PM that day everyone weill realise thats not going to work and well... I cant think of anything to look forward to after that except picking up bargains at some point, but of course they're only bargains if they will grow within a reasonable time.





Lets not forget the key driver for the majority of humanity ...



> Optimism is an outlook on life such that one maintains a view of the world as a positive place. It is the philosophical opposite of pessimism. Optimists generally believe that people and events are inherently good, so that most situations work out in the end for the best.




And surely U.S. houses are being bought or paid off with federal funds rate at 1%.Would you be borrowing with interest rates so low?


----------



## nunthewiser (18 November 2008)

MR. said:


> What have you read exactly?




?? as in ??

read in regards to what ?


----------



## MR. (18 November 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> ?? as in ??




the masses not changing their spending habits.  Just wondered if you have some figures or something that's all.  It is a little early I thought yet though.


----------



## nunthewiser (18 November 2008)

MR. said:


> the masses not changing their spending habits.  Just wondered if you have some figures or something that's all.  It is a little early I thought yet though.




nah m8 my post was in reply to gundini,s query re capitulation of the market, from what im reading and seeing is that ppl still buying , im personally waiting for ppl to throw there hands in the air and give up b4 i start looking at a bottom being found


----------



## MR. (18 November 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> nah m8 my post was in reply to gundini,s query re capitulation of the market, from what im reading and seeing is that ppl still buying , im personally waiting for ppl to throw there hands in the air and give up b4 i start looking at a bottom being found




Cheers, re-read posts.  Took out of context.

----------------------------------------------------


----------



## MrBurns (19 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
> It's just lucky we have the room to move.
> 
> Savings income  will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.
> ...




Ok *NOW* I'm officially a genius.

ALL ORDS  3430.5   -82.6 

I think the rest of my predictions are on track as well, perhaps I was even a little conservative, the timings are way out things happening a lot sooner which I thought could be the case as this is an extreme situation.


----------



## MrBurns (19 November 2008)

I have a nagging feeling that we may see a major downturn very soon, within 2 weeks.
There's no good news on the horizon, interest rate drops do nothing any more, bailouts do nothing any more, GM in the US may be allowed to go under, China is struggling and all we have to look forward to is more retail and unemployment woes = banks will be revalued down again BHP and RIO must take a big hit soon and all retail will fall.

Doesn't mean anyones going broke but many people that work for these companies will be sacked, profits will be down, people will still buy groceries but not as many as often and all the BS spending on extras will go.

These people have mortgages, so there goes the housing market.

Cheery aren't I ?

Have to say it as you see it, could be wrong, ME ? naaaa.


----------



## cbacamden (19 November 2008)

Hah - Mr Burns I really hope you are wrong

but if you are right it will be the end of the world as we know it. 

I still dont see it myself, but then again I thought 4000 was the bottom.

Think I will trade the volatility with each way - I dont have the confidence to go long any more


----------



## MrBurns (19 November 2008)

cbacamden said:


> Hah - Mr Burns I really hope you are wrong
> 
> but if you are right it will be the end of the world as we know it.
> 
> ...




Who knows ?, I think I'll start buying about March, it will surely have bottomed or started to recover by then without the volitility.


----------



## MrBurns (19 November 2008)

Here we go , just in - 


> Westpac report spells more economic woes
> 
> Australia's projected economic growth pace has suffered the biggest monthly slump since the mid-1980s, which increases the risk of a recession in early 2009, a report shows.
> 
> ...




etc etc

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/westpac-report-spells-more-economic-woes-20081119-6ate.html


----------



## Indie (19 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> There's no good news on the horizon, interest rate drops do nothing any more, bailouts do nothing any more





What amazes me is that so many people think that governments can do something meaningful to fix the mess we are in. Which only says to me that we still have a long way to fall before this is all over. Less than one year into this so many people are predicting a quick turnaround in the next 6-12 months. This unwinding will take years from the lofty highs of peak debt. Australian consumers won't even begin to feel the pain until property takes a hit, and that hasn't really happened yet.


----------



## Ageo (19 November 2008)

Indie said:


> What amazes me is that so many people think that governments can do something meaningful to fix the mess we are in. Which only says to me that we still have a long way to fall before this is all over. Less than one year into this so many people are predicting a quick turnaround in the next 6-12 months. This unwinding will take years from the lofty highs of peak debt. Australian consumers won't even begin to feel the pain until property takes a hit, and that hasn't really happened yet.




Correct and by government interference will only delay the inevitable......... 
By letting the free market do its job it will fix itself overtime (and let go many of the companies who shouldnt have been there in the 1st place).

I wonder when all the credit car, car and other loans all go belly up? Thats another trillion dollar industry.......


----------



## nunthewiser (19 November 2008)

I predict

Oprah winfrey to be caught under obamas desk within a year


----------



## rico01 (19 November 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> I predict
> 
> Oprah winfrey to be caught under obamas desk within a year




 And Obama will reply " I did not have sexual relations with that girl"

  Thats standard for presidentes isn,t it!


----------



## Glen48 (19 November 2008)

Mr. Burns you are correct except for the rate cut it will be down to 1- 2% by March.
I love your show and your no holes barred way of running the plant and a low carbon footprint.


----------



## MrBurns (19 November 2008)

Glen48 said:


> Mr. Burns you are correct except for the rate cut it will be down to 1- 2% by March.
> I love your show and your no holes barred way of running the plant and a low carbon footprint.




Thank you - A lifetime of working with nuclear power has left me with a healthy green glow... and as impotent as a Labor Party front bencher.


----------



## prawn_86 (19 November 2008)

I predict:

Once I finish my finance degree im going to holding a cardboard sign and dancing like a flamingo for my daily 'hobo' show


----------



## nick2fish (19 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> and as impotent as a Labor Party front bencher.




You been talking to Waynes wife again Mr B ??


----------



## Miner (19 November 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> I predict:
> 
> Once I finish my finance degree im going to holding a cardboard sign and dancing like a flamingo for my daily 'hobo' show




Hi Prawn 86.

YOu probably will realise after finishing your finance degree that you become so knowledgable that risk taking ability has gone and you will not be able to say any thing without giving two pages disclaimer 

So long you do not follow the Financial whiz kids in Lehmann Bros means you have done an excellent job. 

Jokes apart all the best in your goal and be a successful one. (Do not forget to participate in ASF still )


----------



## Glen48 (20 November 2008)

Mr. Burns seeing as you are an impotent man on this forum I think it is only fitting you dress in  Top hat and tails so people passing by will know just how impotent you are and some one to be admired.
Do you glow greener the closer the bottom gets so we mere St Kilda punter will know when to fire up again and get back in to RE with renewed vigour and wait for our investment to double every 7 years??  
No doubt you are fully loaded with ERA shares and unlike others you don't need to open your mouth to change feet.


----------



## Glen48 (20 November 2008)

I predict we need to set aside a few hectare's of  useless waste land for a grave site for:
Lehman's Bro. Bear Sterns, GM, Ford, B & B, ABC, AIG, USA sub prime, Title Deeds, Failed Economist's, Harvey Normal, Bank cards, GE.
Just noticed if your company is part of the Alphabet you could be in trouble.


----------



## sammy84 (20 November 2008)

A lot of perma-bears here!!


----------



## basilio (20 November 2008)

Many people are going to become knowledgeable about growing vegies...

The next renovation boom will be from the hard rubbish collection and involve  a few more families sharing houses

We are all going to become more multiskilled when we can't afford to pay others to take care of us.

We will learn that less is truly more:


----------



## Aussiejeff (20 November 2008)

sammy84 said:


> A lot of perma-bears here!!




Well, the semi-perma-Bulls were last seen piling into a leaky canoe and paddling frantically towards Nirvana......

I'm not holding my breath that they'll be back anytime soon.


----------



## MrBurns (20 November 2008)

Just had a look at the All Ords, what a disaster, told you so :

I now predict that someone will bail our GM and there will be a very nice bounce, if they don't bail out GM and they file for bankrupcy, I'll be packing my swag and hitting the road.


----------



## MR. (20 November 2008)

I predict,  the Australian property market will come down in price faster than the majority think.  

Only the best of the best are currently selling and they're at normal average prices.  The volumes on sales are terrible.  What's going to happen to the averages once the OK to crap properties sell?  And they're the majority of the properties! 

Property price statistics are going to appear OK for the moment then *"look out"! * 

Residencial property remained strong up to a year after the 1987 stock crash suspended by falling interest rates.   
*This will not be the case this time.*


----------



## MrBurns (20 November 2008)

MR. said:


> I predict,  the Australian property market will come down in price faster than the majority think.
> 
> Only the best of the best are currently selling and they're at normal average prices.  The volumes on sales are terrible.  What's going to happen to the averages once the OK to crap properties sell?  And they're the majority of the properties!
> 
> ...




I think you're right, what annoys me is the drips at the RBA saying it will "soften" not crash, what a load of crap.


----------



## lusk (20 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> I think you're right, what annoys me is the drips at the RBA saying it will "soften" not crash, what a load of crap.




Don't ever mention the "r" word either "slow down" is more appropriate these days.

Bust = depression = recession = slow down.


----------



## sammy84 (20 November 2008)

I dont see property heading the way of the US. Firstly and very importantly, our banks never embraced NINJA loans. Secondly, we have a lot of room to implement monetary policy given that I/Rs are still comparatively high. There will be a substantial drop, but nothing like the US.


----------



## MrBurns (20 November 2008)

sammy84 said:


> I dont see property heading the way of the US. Firstly and very importantly, our banks never embraced NINJA loans. Secondly, we have a lot of room to implement monetary policy given that I/Rs are still comparatively high. There will be a substantial drop, but nothing like the US.




Agreed, the US housing market is as bad as it gets, we wont get that bad but as you say we will have substantial declines, why ? partly and basically because people just cant afford the BS prices of the past few years.


----------



## prawn_86 (20 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> basically because people just cant afford the BS prices of the past few years.




And if wage growth stops (which it pretty much has), houses will have to fall even further to get them back to positively geared, affordable for most people, status


----------



## MrBurns (20 November 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> And if wage growth stops (which it pretty much has), houses will have to fall even further to get them back to positively geared, affordable for most people, status




It's just a matter of timing now, I think it will happen much sooner than in past recessions.

It will take a little time though, people wont sell for the new lower prices yet, unless they're forced, this all happens over time but it will be accelerated by the ferocity of this downturn.


----------



## Snakey (20 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Agreed, the US housing market is as bad as it gets, we wont get that bad but as you say we will have substantial declines, why ? partly and basically because people just cant afford the BS prices of the past few years.




I predict a 5 year down turn in property...it will be much slower than the stock market correction...Why slower? because it takes a long time to sell property and it takes just seconds to sell shares. Sorry leveraged multi property investors but its time to give some cash to the younger generation.
Property investor -:horse:


----------



## Green08 (12 December 2008)

mr_delta said:


> Ok guys….on a serious note…I have two predictions…
> 
> Both of them are reversals of what I predicted to my group of friends a few months back….I had predicted “severe financial  market turmoils in the days ahead” and “regular air crashes”…both of them have been frightfully true so far (more than 10 air crashes in the last 4 months and the less said about the financial markets the better)…
> 
> At the time I had said that both these events will go on till the 5th of November 2008…I put this in writing on a forum today (ASF) that the last major news of this present financial turmoil and the series of Air crashes we have seen in the past few months (Qantas bungles included) will almost fade out from 05/11/2008…the residual effects will not be major news items for a few months till probably 10th January 2009 (this date will be confirmed in a day or two – I will post once again on this)…the events around 10th January will be horrifying and on the scale of September 11 attacks…




Does any know where Mr. Crystal Ball is??

Screwed up and is a shocking example to the Newbies.

I remember this comment as I challenged him and he never answered.  If he was that precise he wouldn't be here rather employed by Chrysler.

He hasn't posted since 30th November, hiding in a hole perhaps.

Newbies here take note of charlatans..


----------



## Glen48 (12 December 2008)

I PREDICT WHAT MR. BURNS IS PREDICTION IS THE CORRECTION PREDICTION.
I predict GM and other will fold and the predictably the USD will sink.

I predict the words Merry Xmas will be jumped on by the word police and ban the word Merry and it will be  " Have a soft landing Xmas and a recession proof New Yr"


----------



## Green08 (16 December 2008)

As I have abstained from the men's thread.

Interesting how fast you write a woman off "can't let go". Must say, some of you do concede to this dreadful trait!

I (hopefully) predict that - With good humour and the knowledge that men do say things in a contrary way - and the admonishment I receive will be a term of endearment from those that oppose in cyberspace

Most men will stopping sounding and bitching like the women they whinge about Ironic! - let the comments flow

That should a woman ask a question or challenge the idea they are not automatically designated useless, controlling and idiots

Men will keep the escort industry thriving and never announce that they have been

Those keeping the Escort industry should be accepted with no blame, they are keeping food on someones table - look at it like charity work

Men/Women should they choose a relationship accept their choice and reponsibiltiy not blame the other - most will be rehabilited in basic manners and human behaviour with their marriage certificate at Daycare (not ABC)

There will be more confident women to debate and enlighten on Aussie Stock Forums 

“Real Women” will be defined on ink on paper by the Oxford Dictonary, and thus will eternally be debated

That those that choose an alternative life style will be accepted for their qualities and their contributions not on their sexuality


I Predict

We will have more wars

Humans will continue to hate and kill each other for incredibly stupid reasons

We have NOT reached the bottom of any Market Index

Anyone who says "we are not at the bottom" of a market Index and is wrong will be lightly admonished and then respected the experts

There will be a food, water, accommodation, medical, defence, quality schooling, love, care and respect shortage in the world and it will get worse over preceding years

That if all the women stopped debating on Aussie Stock Forums on the chat rooms it would be a bloody boring place


----------



## Aussiejeff (17 December 2008)

I predict the US Fed Reserve will slash base interest rates to between 0 & 0.25% and this will cause a massive 200+ points rally on Wall Street


----------



## Aussiejeff (17 December 2008)

OMG 

I'M A PROPHET!!!!


LOL


----------



## wayneL (17 December 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> OMG
> I'M A PROPHET!!!!
> 
> 
> LOL



:bowdown::bowdown::bowdown::bowdown::bowdown:


----------



## Aussiejeff (17 December 2008)

wayneL said:


>




:arsch: :arsch: :arsch: :arsch: :arsch:


----------



## 2020hindsight (17 December 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> I predict the US Fed Reserve will slash base interest rates to between 0 & 0.25% and this will cause a massive 200+ points rally on Wall Street



I predict they won't drop it too much more though


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## Trembling Hand (16 January 2009)

mr_delta said:


> Ok guys….on a serious note…I have two predictions…
> 
> Both of them are reversals of what I predicted to my group of friends a few months back….I had predicted “severe financial  market turmoils in the days ahead” and “regular air crashes”…both of them have been frightfully true so far (more than 10 air crashes in the last 4 months and the less said about the financial markets the better)…
> 
> At the time I had said that both these events will go on till the 5th of November 2008…I put this in writing on a forum today (ASF) that the last major news of this present financial turmoil and the series of Air crashes we have seen in the past few months (Qantas bungles included) will almost fade out from 05/11/2008…the residual effects will not be major news items for a few months till probably 10th January 2009 (this date will be confirmed in a day or two – I will post once again on this)…*the events around 10th January will be horrifying and on the scale of September 11 attacks…*




Amazing how accurate this has been. Thanks for forewarning us all 

seriously.


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## MrBurns (16 January 2009)

Plane crashes into river off Manhattan

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/16/2467212.htm


----------



## xyzedarteerf (16 January 2009)

mr_delta said:


> Ok guys….on a serious note…I have two predictions…
> 
> Both of them are reversals of what I predicted to my group of friends a few months back….I had predicted “severe financial  market turmoils in the days ahead” and “regular air crashes”…both of them have been frightfully true so far (more than 10 air crashes in the last 4 months and the less said about the financial markets the better)…
> 
> At the time I had said that both these events will go on till the 5th of November 2008…I put this in writing on a forum today (ASF) that the last major news of this present financial turmoil and the series of Air crashes we have seen in the past few months (Qantas bungles included) will almost fade out from 05/11/2008…the residual effects will not be major news items for a few months till probably 10th January 2009 (this date will be confirmed in a day or two – I will post once again on this)…the events around 10th January will be horrifying and on the scale of September 11 attacks…




missed it by that much!


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## Aussiejeff (11 February 2009)

I predict by end of 2009 ....

Oz interest rate will be <2%

AUD will be worth..less.

*sigh*

It's tough being a seer.


----------



## Sean K (11 February 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> It's tough being a seer.



Would be out there in the ocean. 

But Seer's a tasty, similar to a Mackerel.


----------



## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

kennas said:


> Would be out there in the ocean.
> 
> But Seer's a tasty, similar to a Mackerel.




Not as tasty as a piece of flake mmm..my favourite! 

Speaking of sharks.
I predict this guy will not win another tournament. He should retire! IMVHO


----------



## Aussiejeff (11 February 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Not as tasty as a piece of flake mmm..my favourite!
> 
> Speaking of sharks.
> I predict this guy will not win another tournament. He should retire! IMVHO




Errr.... I believe he is "out to stud" at some tennis ranch....


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## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Errr.... I believe he is "out to stud" at some tennis ranch....




Yeah I know he married Chris Everit-Lloyd.

I stand corrected. I suppose he has officially retired from the pro-tour.

He was a choker on the US circuit.


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
> It's just lucky we have the room to move.
> 
> Savings income  will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.
> ...




I'm on track.....................

BUT - KRudd is propping up the property market with his bribes, a worthless act of stupidity because it will only serve to hold the bubble a little and make the downfall worse in the end.


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## Glen48 (11 February 2009)

I predict Mr. Burns is correct for this reason:

Hugh Pavletich FDIA
Performance Urban Planning
Christchurch
New Zealand

January 7, 2009


Within Our Epistemological Depression ”” The American, A Magazine of Ideas Jerry Z Muller, Professor of History at the Catholic University of America and the author of The Mind and the Market: Capitalism in Modern European Thought outlines how those in the finance sector failed, because they simply lacked the required knowledge of the risks involved. Professor Muller states –
SEARCH NZ JOBS
Massey Enrolments close Feb 15
Search New Zealand Business

“A good deal of our current economic travails can be traced to the increasing valuation of purportedly objective criteria, so denoted because they can be expressed and manipulated in mathematical form by people who may be skilled in such manipulation, but who lack “concrete” knowledge or experience of the things being traded. As Niall Ferguson has put it ‘those who the gods want to destroy they first teach math’. The paradigm – and the precursor of our current crisis – was the rise and fall of Long Term Capital Management, founded by two of the fathers of quantitative options financing, Myron Scholes and Robert C Merton. Knowing a great deal about math, but not very much history, they developed trading models that radically underestimated the risk entailed in their financial speculation, leading to a dramatic collapse of the company in the summer of 1998. Attaching a number creates a belief that the information is more solid than is actually the case. This is what I mean by ‘pseudo-objectivity’. In each case, it is a response to what (to recoin a phrase) one might call alienation from the means of production, the attempt to substitute abstract and quantitative knowledge for concrete and qualitative knowledge.”

With greater complexity and diversity, essentially the larger financial institutions have become un-manageable, as those in governance and senior managerial roles, lack the required intimate specialist understanding of the risks involved.

Professor Muller continues –

“This message has not yet taken hold among policy makers. There is much talk about monetary policy and fiscal stimulus. But without financial institutions that people have faith in, a fiscal stimulus is unlikely to have much of a multiplier effect. It is widely assumed that people will have faith in financial institutions, if the Treasury injects capital in to them. But the problem is not just that the financial institutions are short on operating capital: it is that recent experience seems to show that they are incapable of prudently managing the capital they have. In short, economic actors believe that other economic actors don’t know what they are doing. Nor is the problem merely one of isolating ‘bad assets’ – it is of a system that creates bad assets because of misaligned incentives and the fog created by opacity and pseudo-objectivity.

Professor Muller then continues by saying that confidence cannot be created out of thin air – and that the current problems are likely to be exacerbated as diversified firms are forced to amalgamate with other diversified firms. Put simply – if they didn’t understand what they were already managing – how can they be expected to successfully manage something even larger and more complex?

There is of course the example of the Bernie Madoff Ponzi Scheme where the Securities and Exchange Commission failed to act, after being repeatedly informed by Harry Markopolis, a specialist in the field with a deep understanding of the issues. Essentially – the SEC failed because it lacked people with sufficient “concrete knowledge” of the financial instruments involved. Markopolis is of the view that the SEC is “over lawyered” with a serious lack of skilled people with the required knowledge of the finance industry.

The “Dangers of Superficial Knowledge” problem is not one confined to just the finance sector – but is widespread both within the public and private sectors.

The Australian Labour Prime Minister Kevin Rudd for example could be described as a “Specialist in Superficial Knowledge” with his rather amusing “theories on economics – countered effectively by the former Labour Government Treasurer of New South Wales, Michael Costa - Rudd on a dangerous, ill-informed crusade | The Australian.

It is generally widely understood that the current Global Financial Crisis was triggered by the “mortgage meltdown” in the State of California, where housing had “bubbled” out to around 9 times household earnings - with Texas, for example, through this era of “easy money”, staying at 2.5 times earnings (Refer January 08 Dallas Fed Report and recent Reuters recent report on Texas home building market). For a “daily dose” of the latest horror stories out of California (after all – “entertainment” is major industry there – they gave up on “reality” long ago) – check patrick net and Dr Housing Bubble.

California with a population of 37 million and residential stock of some 13 million units median price peaked at in excess of $US500,000 and has slumped to near $US250,000. With the average price being somewhat higher than the median – it is likely some $US4 trillion of “bubble value” has been wiped out of California housing so far – and possibly as much as $US8 trillion of “bubble value” across the 127 million residential stock of the United States to date.

Thankfully however - the economics profession is now aware of its “knowledge gaps – as illustrated by this recent article in the Sydney Morning Herald - A new economic theory is needed for the growing financial crisis, write Andrew Boughton and Michael West. Until very recently – economists were trained that “housing bubbles” were irrelevant and didn’t matter. Little wonder few of them understand markets.

Within a recent Open Letter to Bernard Hickey, a senior New Zealand business journalist and Managing Editor of Interest Co NZ, I did a “rough assessment” of the quantum of “global bubble value” (some $US100 – 200 trillion or 2 to 4 times Gross World Product) that is currently in the process of evaporating.

Yet – economists and allied professions and others appear to have at best a shallow understanding of the significance and consequences of the equity and debt leveraging and deleveraging of specific housing markets globally. And most importantly – that these unnecessary housing bubbles are caused by regulatory failures at the local level, that must be dealt with, to ensure they don’t get underway again.

In reading media reports of “this weeks stimulus” or market intervention – one would get the impression that these are “cost free”. The question is never asked whether they will likely work or not and what the medium to long term consequences will be. Intervene in haste and repent at leisure seems to be the favored approach – as the “establishment” struggles (likely in vain) to protect its political and commercial interests.

The writers field is property development – a field I have studied through 30 years of practical experience. I have limited knowledge of other fields – unlike economists who consider that they understand the wider economy. Within a recent article Housing Bubbles And Market Sense I attempt to sketch out how those with “superficial knowledge” create massive problems – and further to this – why there is an urgent need to get “simple performance measures” (as recommended by the United Nations and World Bank) inculcated in to Local Government culture as quickly as possible. This is set out in “layman’s language” within the rather lengthy paper "Getting performance urban planning in place".

The reality is that those “schooled’ in a subject – but not actually “educated” in it - with a solid track record of practical experience – cannot be expected to have the required skills to participate within or regulate that particular field effectively. This is why - with respect to urban housing markets and local government generally – at least – there is a need for simple performance measures. The Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Surveys (2009 5th Edition; 2008 4th Edition; 2007 3rd Edition; 2006 2nd Edition) should simply be seen as a useful “first step”.

There are always those who will attempt to “complicate and confuse” as illustrated within this New Zealand Herald article (to which I responded – Interest Co NZ larger version here Scoop NZ here).

Indeed – for public bureaucracies in particular (with the consultants that feed off them) there is a strong incentive to “complicate and confuse” – so that those they are accountable to are “kept in the dark” – particularly with respect to the issue of that particular institutions “performance”.

Within the English speaking world – the British public sector bureaucracies are the “most gifted” at generating complicated and confusing information of little relevance. I enjoy teasing British colleagues that I expect them to generate more “housing reports” this year than actual houses! As an example – this year’s Demographia Survey could not obtain median house price / median household income information for the 3rd Quarter 2008 for the United Kingdom – other than for London and it surrounds. So it had to settle for the regional level this year, with the latest information available, being for the 1st Quarter of 2008. No doubt thritish bureaucrats are “overloaded” and “under resourced” – as they repeat the history of the “bureaucratic managed decline” of the 1970’s.

The message is clear. Recovery cannot occur until the real structural issues are dealt with effectively – across the board. And that as individuals in our specialist fields – with a little humility - we recognize just how limited our wider knowledge is.

ENDS


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## mattlaw (11 February 2009)

Does anyone know the specialists that the government uses to arrive at particular decisions regarding the best course of action? OR do they come up with it themselves within the parliamentary ranks.


----------



## joeyr46 (11 February 2009)

mattlaw said:


> Does anyone know the specialists that the government uses to arrive at particular decisions regarding the best course of action? OR do they come up with it themselves within the parliamentary ranks.




their obviously using experts like always trouble is experts don't agree at the best of times so they only use the ones that tell them what they want to hear


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## Glen48 (11 February 2009)

Today B.0. bailout is seen as a dud and the USD is about to take a dive and this will be the start of the 09 crash.
He has no more ammo and people now reaslise bailouts are usless.
Gold should go up from now on as other currency's fight over how will be top Dog.
Disclosure: I sleep with Gold in the Fetal position.
If Storm didn't get you the depression will!!!


----------



## noirua (11 February 2009)

...that Chinese, Japanese and Korean exports will fail to recover and will be down about 25% - 35% on 2008 during the whole of 2009.
Australian iron ore, PCI and coking coal exports will not recover at all during 2009 or 2010. Prices will remain very depressed with oil down to US$30 per barrel, thermal coal at US$60 per tonne and hard coking coal at US$80 per tonne.
The Aussie$ will fall to 59c to the US$1 and to 55c to the US$1 in 2010.
Australia will fall into recession with unemployment hitting 13% in 2010 and 16% in 2011. Interest rates will fall to 1.5% in 2009 and 0.25% in 2010.
Stock markets however will start to rise in the second half of 2009 and continue on up during 2010.

Thus are the predictions of the self appointed Guru noirua, who fortunately, has never failed to be wrong in the past. But maybe this time...


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## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

I now think we are moving toward depression like conditions.

Obama wont be able to do much, a bit like KRudd but on a larger scale.

The bailout experiment will prove to be the undoing of the economies of Australia and the US for generations to come.


----------



## Julia (11 February 2009)

mattlaw said:


> Does anyone know the specialists that the government uses to arrive at particular decisions regarding the best course of action? OR do they come up with it themselves within the parliamentary ranks.



They supposedly take the advice of the experts in Treasury.  Apparently in the composition of Package Mark II they also consulted with Business.
Now what would you expect business leaders to say?  Of course they will tell government that they must shovel spending money out to the great unwashed.


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## 2BAD4U (12 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I now think we are moving toward depression like conditions.




Nothing like depression.  I don't see the line up of people for free food and shelter.  I don't see the line of people outside the factories waiting to be picked to work that day.  Let's not over dramatise the situation. Things may be bad economically, but not depression like.  A modern system of welfare prevents depression like conditions.


----------



## Sean K (23 February 2009)

kennas said:


> I predict that if this all goes worse case the world will be at war not too long after.



I have no really good argument for this early rash call, than it's just a hunch.

But, I've been looking about and there seems to be a lot of governments feeling the pinch right now due to bad economic decisions and loss of income from US free cash, which actually was debt...


Predicting that before the major war at the end of this, that we'll see many many smaller skirmishes about the place as the micro economies fall apart and societies fall into lawlessness. 

Or, we all go swimingly along ....


----------



## MrBurns (23 February 2009)

2BAD4U said:


> Nothing like depression.  I don't see the line up of people for free food and shelter.  I don't see the line of people outside the factories waiting to be picked to work that day.  Let's not over dramatise the situation. Things may be bad economically, but not depression like.  A modern system of welfare prevents depression like conditions.




A depression in 1939 won't nessessarily be the same as a depression in 2009 or 10 but a new class of people ( those that had it and now don't ) will have next to nothing and this will cause social unrest.


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## Aussiejeff (23 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> A depression in 1939 won't nessessarily be the same as a depression in 2009 or 10 but a new class of people ( those that had it and now don't ) will have next to nothing and this will cause social unrest.




Yeah, it's all a matter of "scale".

How many more Billion people are involved in this "world recession" compared to 1939? 

How many more bad debt loans?

How many more insolvent companies?

How many more Ponzi operators?

How big are the Mega cities (that were built on Mega-debt loans) now, compared to '39?

How can the world's Mega cities continue to function if they can ONLY function on mountains of endless debt and loans for essential services & infrastructure?

Who will provide all this debt funding?

How much total debt does the world carry now, in comparison to '39?


So many new questions.
So little time to get the right answers.
So few good political leaders to provide the solutions.

Confidence is so low, I'm almost tempted to turn religous...


----------



## MrBurns (23 February 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Confidence is so low, I'm almost tempted to turn religous...




Now there's an emerging growth business


----------



## MrBurns (23 February 2009)

ABC Web Site - 



> Britain tightens immigration rules
> Posted 54 minutes ago
> 
> The British Government says it is tightening immigration controls in the face of rising unemployment and tough economic conditions.
> ...


----------



## gfresh (23 February 2009)

Most Australian's wouldn't even pass that test  

I think we may as well call this The Great Depression II... With the exception of Australia and a couple of others, you can't really see any country that is escaping without serious economic effects at the moment. It won't play out with the exact same scenario, or imagery, but the overall scope of it seems similar. 

We're now on the brink of nationalisation of many (more) overseas banks, and despite all the bailouts, many are about to fall over again (Citigroup for instance). Unemployment is soaring in all major countries. GDP is falling by several percent a quarter. Housing is falling several percent in all major countries. Trade is collapsing. Spending is collapsing. 

It took about 4 years for the very worst to bottom in the 1930's Depression, bottoming in about 1933. I think we could be on a similar timescale. This time the US started in about 07, so would expect the economic bottom may be somewhere between late 2010-2011.

I think with the more rapid spread of information in today's world, and greater awareness of economic matters, the trip down seems to be playing out quicker, which may mean the recovery may be a bit closer than last time.


----------



## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
> It's just lucky we have the room to move.
> 
> Savings income  will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.
> ...




From Oct last year, not bad if i say so myself.


----------



## robots (2 March 2009)

hello,

top effort cheech, 

thankyou
robots


----------



## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

robots said:


> hello,
> 
> top effort cheech,
> 
> ...




Thanks robbi, hope the latte's were good today.


----------



## robots (2 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Thanks robbi, hope the latte's were good today.




hello,

yes loaded up, working over Mill Park way for the week and will catch the train and ride bicycle the next couple of days, its great fun on the public transport system

you always see some great characters, got the earlybird ticket all set to go

thankyou
robots


----------



## marcadrian (2 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> From Oct last year, not bad if i say so myself.




Good Call Mr Burns. Right on all counts.... but we're still waiting for that last frontier to fall... the property market that is!

People are OK with falling stocks and rising unemployment, but the real headlines will hit when property prices drop 10%+. It might just not happen though. The middle ground of property might hold as low interest rates see's new entrants into the market and the high end dropping means people will be downsizing into more affordable homes. I think many houses in run of the mill suburbs will be stuck in that 300-600k price band for the next decade (as baby boomers sell up and move off into little townhouses by the coast somewhere).


----------



## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

marcadrian said:


> Good Call Mr Burns. Right on all counts.... but we're still waiting for that last frontier to fall... the property market that is!
> 
> People are OK with falling stocks and rising unemployment, but the real headlines will hit when property prices drop 10%+. It might just not happen though. The middle ground of property might hold as low interest rates see's new entrants into the market and the high end dropping means people will be downsizing into more affordable homes. I think many houses in run of the mill suburbs will be stuck in that 300-600k price band for the next decade (as baby boomers sell up and move off into little townhouses by the coast somewhere).




It will still happen, there's no way whats happening around the globe won't effect property here, it's already started of course but seems minute compared to the share crash.

You just have to look at the unemployment figures emerging to know there is a lot worse to come.

The FHB grant and low interest rates have kept it afloat for the time being. 

On the surface it seems like a good time to buy but it's all manipulated and the market is distorted by current events. low interest rates, temporary, and the FHBG also temporarily Doubled.


----------



## white_goodman (2 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> It will still happen, there's no way whats happening around the globe won't effect property here, it's already started of course but seems minute compared to the share crash.
> 
> You just have to look at the unemployment figures emerging to know there is a lot worse to come.
> 
> ...




funny thing we forecasted a 2010 fight back through resi property today at our quarterly research meeting... i debated it but we shall soon see


----------



## sammy84 (2 March 2009)

I predict fantastic buying opportunities around the corner. The end is near....


----------



## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

sammy84 said:


> I predict fantastic buying opportunities around the corner. The end is near....




Make up your mind


----------



## sammy84 (2 March 2009)

Sorry should have clarified, the end of the bear is near. We need one last big drop


----------



## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Sorry should have clarified, the end of the bear is near. We need one last big drop




I got it, only joking, .i hope you're right but I don't think so.

7 of our 10 largest trading partners are in recession.


----------



## grace (2 March 2009)

Just reading about the comments on property.....

Well, I was talking to a person who holds a fairly senior position in one of our banks last week and their comment was (that particular Banks' view) that they didn't expect Commercial property to improve for AT LEAST three years.

Rural property has now dropped 15-20% from the highs.  Rural property did peak earlier than residential though, back in 2007.

Personally, I just can't see why we would be the only country in the world to come out of this without some hurt in the housing market.  My personal view is the hurt will be very bad, after all, a commodity based bubble that has now bust with plenty of flow on through every corner of our Country can't keep the fire warm.


----------



## michael_selway (2 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> MrBurns said:
> 
> 
> > Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
> ...




Hey yep thats pretty good

However what do you see from here on in? e.g. what will be the absolute low of the AORDS and Dow Jones and when etc?

Thanks 

MS


----------



## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Hey yep thats pretty good
> 
> However what do you see from here on in? e.g. what will be the absolute low of the AORDS and Dow Jones and when etc?
> 
> ...




I thought someone would ask me to do it again

The all ords depends on company profits and viability, by rights all the bad news should already be factored in but the decline in profits I've seen reported so far would lead me to believe that many of these companies wont survive, certainly not at their present levels.

The Nikki fell 80% and Japan was in recession for 10 years, so to answer your question, I don't know but all I can say is I'm staying out because I know nothing about trading and will wait till property tanks and buy in there...I think.


----------



## Glen48 (2 March 2009)

Here it a good indicator the bottom is close coming to a Suburb near you???

 Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- When Berlin resident Simone Klostermann returned from vacation and couldn’t find her Mercedes SLK, she thought it had been towed. Police told her the 35,000- euro ($45,000) car had been torched.

“They’d squirted something flammable into the car’s engine block in the gap between the windshield and the hood,” said Klostermann. “The engine was completely destroyed.”

The 34-year-old’s experience isn’t unique in the German capital. At least 29 vehicles were destroyed in arson attacks this year, most of them luxury cars, according to police. The number is already about 30 percent of the total for 2008. The latest to go up in flames was a Porsche, on Feb. 14, two days after a Mercedes was set alight in a public car park.

While youths in Athens protest by throwing Molotov cocktails, in Paris by toppling barricades, and in Budapest by hurling eggs at politicians, protesters in Berlin rage at their economic plight by targeting the most expensive cars -- symbols of German wealth and power.

A group calling itself BMW -- the initials stand for Movement for Militant Resistance in German -- has claimed responsibility for several attacks in left-wing magazines and Web sites, police spokesman Bernhard Schodrowski said.

One-third of the incidents are classed as “political,” prompting officers to assign a special unit to investigate, Schodrowski said. No arrests have been made. Schodrowski attributed the arson to “a protest against the world economy and rising rents.”

‘Quick to Attack’

German unemployment began to rise last November after almost three years of declines. Deutsche Bank AG Chief Economist Norbert Walter predicts the German economy, Europe’s biggest, may shrink by more than 5 percent this year.

The worst recession since World War II is fueling anger among youths across Europe who “perceive their future as rather precarious,” said Margit Mayer, a politics professor at Berlin’s Free University.

“Whether you look at the Berlin events or these anarchist groups in other European cities and countries, they are all making reference to the deepening economic crisis and how the various governments are dealing with them,” said Mayer, a specialist in urban social and protest movements.

Some groups are “very quick to attack whoever they can make out as responsible for having robbed them of decent life prospects,” according to Mayer.

The Berlin car burnings have been concentrated in up-and- coming neighborhoods such as Prenzlauer Berg, where Klostermann’s car was destroyed in May.

‘Don’t Move in Here’

There, new housing and building redevelopments are pushing out the squatter scene that flourished after East and West Berlin were reunited in 1990, said Andrej Holm, a sociologist at Goethe University in Frankfurt who has studied the change.

Rents that were about half the city average 10 years ago are now about 40 percent above the average, and the car attacks are an attempt to drive wealthy newcomers away, Holm said.

“It means: ‘rich people, don’t move in here -- your cars will be trashed, we don’t want you here’,” he said.

Representatives from Porsche Automobil Holding SE, Daimler AG, the maker of Mercedes, and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG declined to comment on the attacks. Daimler spokeswoman Ute von Fellberg said the matter was about security in Berlin.

Berlin Matter

“This is not a matter for the producer, rather it’s a matter for the city of Berlin,” BMW spokesman Alexander Bilgeri said today in a phone interview.

While Prenzlauer Berg and other central neighborhoods such as Friedrichshain and Kreuzberg are thriving, at least in parts, Berlin as a whole remains Germany’s “subsidy capital” almost 20 years after the Berlin Wall fell, said Tobias Just, a real-estate economist with Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt. Unemployment, at 14.1 percent in February, is almost double the national average.

Oliver Kappelle, who moved with his wife and two children to Friedrichshain, is unfazed by the perceived threat.

One night last month, Kappelle came across a “heap of junk that used to be a Porsche the night before,” he said. “I was just relieved that he didn’t park in the empty space behind me.”

Baader-Meinhof

Berlin has a history of political protest, with anarchist demonstrators regularly clashing with police on the streets of Kreuzberg during May 1 marches. Kreuzberg, which abutted the Berlin Wall, is represented in parliament by the Green Party’s Hans-Christian Stroebele, a former lawyer who defended members of the Baader-Meinhof gang in court.

Likewise, arson attacks on cars are not new: a Web site, “Burning Cars,” was set up to track the incidents in May 2007, one month before a summit in the northern German resort of Heiligendamm of the Group of Eight industrialized nations. There have been 290 attacks on cars since then, among them 55 Mercedes and 29 BMWs damaged or destroyed by fire, the site records.

“I wouldn’t advise someone to park their Porsche on the street” in Kreuzberg, Berlin police commissioner Dieter Glietsch told the Taz newspaper in June last year.

As the frequency of attacks increases, Klostermann, a company manager who has lived in Prenzluer Berg for 12 years, remains unbowed.

“I would never want to be regarded as someone who can be driven out of a place where I enjoy living,” she said.


----------



## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

Some years ago I believe Mercedes were going to make their cars less showy just for times like this.

I cant see how there will be a fast rebound, this will be messy for a few years, cant see beyond that and i'm not keen on living in an enviroment like that for years but it seems thats what we're in for.


----------



## Miner (2 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> From Oct last year, not bad if i say so myself.




Brilliant work Mr Burns

Ironically first time I saw this thread and amazed how nicely you predicted back in Oct 08

Now please tell us your next series of predictions for next 12 months - seriously and the basic of your prediction (if possible)

Regards


----------



## MR. (3 March 2009)

michael_selway said:


> what do you see from here on in? e.g. what will be the absolute low of the AORDS and Dow Jones and when etc?
> 
> Thanks
> 
> MS






Miner said:


> Now please tell us your next series of predictions for next 12 months - seriously and the basic of your prediction (if possible)
> 
> Regards




Michael / Miner, care to have a stab!


----------



## metric (3 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
> It's just lucky we have the room to move.
> 
> Savings income  will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.
> ...




well picked....if someone calls you an economist...'gangster slap' them!


.


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## metric (3 March 2009)

kennas said:


> I predict that if this all goes worse case the world will be at war not too long after.




another sage......

look at public works completion dates...2012-13 (and at historical completion dates of public works)


.


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

AIG lost $61B USD *this quarter alone*. Now given another $30B on top of $150B it already has been "lent" by the US Govt.

*This is ONE company*, what does this now value AIG and countless others that make up the DOW ?

Thats why the market is now in freefall.

One word springs to mind, *inflation *and plenty of it and if the banks try to counter that by raising interest rates everyone will pull their head in and it's game over.

So we're snookered for now.

What this means on the ground is massive unemployment and social unrest.

Not being a doomsayer here, this is happening right now.

Whats ahead, we can only hope that for some reason things turn around but I cant think of a reason why.

What should happen now that we are in a *real crisis* is that the banks *should start lending again*, let the money flow, backed by the Govt perhaps but get the money out there so people can run businesses and perhaps even employ people.

Without that money supply starting to flow I think we will have depressive economic conditions sooner rather than later.

I predict that by August we will be in a deep recession or depression if you like OR if the money starts to flow _and it has to be globally_ it will be cleaning up after the storm, great opportunities to get in on the ground.

The former scenerio could bring us closer to a war which is frightening stuff since my son just joined the reserves not long ago.


----------



## Stormin_Norman (3 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> AIG lost $61B USD *this quarter alone*. Now given another $30B on top of $150B it already has been "lent" by the US Govt.
> 
> *This is ONE company*, what does this now value AIG and countless others that make up the DOW ?
> 
> ...




i agree mr burns. the situation is gloomy. especially with the government stealing the money left for borrowing or as economists call it 'crowding out capitalists'.

i am very worried about the government response, its is totally wrong and will cause the world economy a great deal of pain and very likely a depression.


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

I also think there's something very nasty on the horizon for GMH here, I think there's a better then even chance they will cut their AU operation to the bone or shut it down temporarily to protect the US parent.


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

Stormin_Norman said:


> i am very worried about the government response, its is totally wrong and will cause the world economy a great deal of pain and very likely a depression.




I agree but I'm starting to understand that they dont have much choice, there will be a depression if they let all these companies go under anyway but this way they are at least seen as trying to save jobs.

Re GMH can you imagine the knock on effect if they closed or went into hibernation here ?


----------



## Stormin_Norman (3 March 2009)

governments have to be seen to be 'doing something' even if its the wrong thing.


----------



## theasxgorilla (3 March 2009)

I _predicted_ next stop 700 on the SPY.  It's been on my profile for months.  No Gann, Elliott Wave, taro card reading...nothing but sausage-filled-gut instinct.  It can fall to 5 tomorrow, but tonight it stopped at 700.  Woo hoo, forum glory for me.  Alright, that's was my 15, thanks for indulging me.


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## metric (3 March 2009)

> Woo hoo, forum glory for me. Alright, that's was my 15, thanks for indulging me.




mmmmmm, sausage.......uuugghhhh....dribble.

perhaps it was the sage in sausage that helped with the vision?


.


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## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

theasxgorilla said:


> I _predicted_ next stop 700 on the SPY.  It's been on my profile for months.  No Gann, Elliott Wave, taro card reading...nothing but sausage-filled-gut instinct.  It can fall to 5 tomorrow, but tonight it stopped at 700.  Woo hoo, forum glory for me.  Alright, that's was my 15, thanks for indulging me.




Instinct works best I think, Greenspan should have tried it.

One bottle Johnny Walker, then go sit in a corner and cry for an hour and the resultant clarity is amazing.


----------



## M34N (3 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> What should happen now that we are in a *real crisis* is that the banks *should start lending again*, let the money flow, backed by the Govt perhaps but get the money out there so people can run businesses and perhaps even employ people.
> 
> Without that money supply starting to flow I think we will have depressive economic conditions sooner rather than later.




Maybe bank nationalization should happen soon then, these companies like AIG, Citi, etc are obviously failing so why not just bite the bullet and take them over now instead of continuously bailing them out and hoping they fix themselves? Wouldn't it just be cheaper in the long term to do this anyway and not have to pump billions into them every quarter until they eventually make a profit?

This is some scary stuff right now, I don't think any job out there is safe and anything could happen. I personally feel a fall in our housing market will happen soon too, if people keep losing their jobs like they are now here (and odds are they will) then eventually the shoe has to drop and people can't meet mortgage repayments. It happened everywhere else, just not here... property market here has been the 'final frontier' so to speak.

Good predictions MrBurns, I agree with what you're saying will happen soon, the next 6 months will be tougher and I don't see things getting any better soon either.


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

M34N said:


> Maybe bank nationalization should happen soon then, these companies like AIG, Citi, etc are obviously failing so why not just bite the bullet and take them over now instead of continuously bailing them out and hoping they fix themselves? Wouldn't it just be cheaper in the long term to do this anyway and not have to pump billions into them every quarter until they eventually make a profit?
> 
> This is some scary stuff right now, I don't think any job out there is safe and anything could happen. I personally feel a fall in our housing market will happen soon too, if people keep losing their jobs like they are now here (and odds are they will) then eventually the shoe has to drop and people can't meet mortgage repayments. It happened everywhere else, just not here... property market here has been the 'final frontier' so to speak.
> 
> Good predictions MrBurns, I agree with what you're saying will happen soon, the next 6 months will be tougher and I don't see things getting any better soon either.




I think you're right and the nationalisation of some banks will happen and probably very soon, there's even talk of nationalising GM.

Easy to buy a house how, low interest , double FHB grant.

The thing they havent considered is how much it will be worth in 2 years, if they have to sell they'll go out the door backwards.

But I believe Rudd's quite comfortable with that

What a different world we are transforming into and before our very eyes.


----------



## Stormin_Norman (3 March 2009)

so nationalisation will solves the inefficiencies which caused the 'problem', leading to the current 'solution'?

i doubt it. let them fail. its how capitalism works.


----------



## M34N (3 March 2009)

Stormin_Norman said:


> so nationalisation will solves the inefficiencies which caused the 'problem', leading to the current 'solution'?
> 
> i doubt it. let them fail. its how capitalism works.




Can't. Mass job losses at those companies, mass defaults in debts owed to other companies (more than now, if that is possible!), the flow on effects from these companies going bust will lead to mass amounts of people becoming homeless and lead to mass unrest. You can't let these companies fail, it is true that they are too big. They have massive commitments across the world, they hold a lot of the global economy together and sadly capitalism has failed (in this respect).

Nationalization will most likely happen because it HAS to happen. How long can government's continue to print money to give to these obviously 'zombie' corporations to survive when they are obviously incurring massive losses?

If some of these massive companies go bust, the financial system will collapse and the whole world could face a problem greater than the last depression. There simply is no choice.


----------



## prawn_86 (3 March 2009)

M34N,

That is what needs to happen for the mistakes of the past to be learnt. Capitalism hasn't failed, merely the management of it has. Profits have been privatised while losses are socialised. For it to work properly you need a true free market, even if it means millions of unemployed. That will ensure in the future the business' are sustainable


----------



## Stormin_Norman (3 March 2009)

M34N said:


> Can't. Mass job losses at those companies, mass defaults in debts owed to other companies (more than now, if that is possible!), the flow on effects from these companies going bust will lead to mass amounts of people becoming homeless and lead to mass unrest. You can't let these companies fail, it is true that they are too big. They have massive commitments across the world, they hold a lot of the global economy together and sadly capitalism has failed (in this respect).
> 
> Nationalization will most likely happen because it HAS to happen. How long can government's continue to print money to give to these obviously 'zombie' corporations to survive when they are obviously incurring massive losses?
> 
> If some of these massive companies go bust, the financial system will collapse and the whole world could face a problem greater than the last depression. There simply is no choice.




nationalisation is putting the mistakes of these companies onto the public purse.

while it is easy to see the jobs 'saved' or 'created' by the government in times such as these, what is not seen is the jobs 'destroyed' or 'not created' because government borrowing is taken at the expense of more efficient private organisations.

no matter the owner inefficient producers cannot operate and bad loans must be written off. nationalisation to prevent these things from happening does not solve the problem and will only mire the economy in a depressive state for a much longer period.


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

Yes they really cant let them fail, but they cant really save them either however they can make the fall a little softer and yes wholesale nationalization is just around the corner.

Cant help feeling as if we're on the precipice of something rather nasty.

(hope that doesn't turn out to be the understatement of the year)


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

Looks like we're going under 3000, all that stuff we said might happen is actually happening.


----------



## M34N (3 March 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> M34N,
> 
> That is what needs to happen for the mistakes of the past to be learnt. Capitalism hasn't failed, merely the management of it has. Profits have been privatised while losses are socialised. For it to work properly you need a true free market, even if it means millions of unemployed. That will ensure in the future the business' are sustainable




Normally I would agree with you on this, prawn, but I personally think the situation at the moment has gotten so bad that government may have to consider it to prevent the _whole system_ (read: not a single company) from collapsing. Those that were not responsible are getting caught up in this mess, the mistakes of a few are now everyone's problem and this is where I feel capitalism has failed.

Regulation needs to be tightened to prevent it from happening _again_, but I'm talking about fixing the _current _problems and not those that may happen in future. The problems we have now are way too serious to just let them unravel as they are, there has to be intervention and maybe government intervention now will make up for the lack of it over the past 5 or so years?

Either way the repercussions of doing nothing by government now will be far worse than what nationalization may achieve.


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

M34N said:


> Normally I would agree with you on this, prawn, but I personally think the situation at the moment has gotten so bad that government may have to consider it to prevent the _whole system_ (read: not a single company) from collapsing. Those that were responsible are not getting caught up in this mess, the mistakes of a few are now everyone's problem and this is where I feel capitalism has failed.
> 
> Regulation needs to be tightened to prevent it from happening _again_, but I'm talking about fixing the _current _problems and not those that may happen in future. The problems we have now are way too serious to just let them unravel as they are, there has to be intervention and maybe government intervention now will make up for the lack of it over the past 5 or so years?
> 
> Either way the repercussions of doing nothing by government now will be far worse than what nationalization may achieve.




I agree , I think economic theory as right as it may be must take a back seat for now while efforts are made to prevent a catastrophic event, and I think we're fairly close to that point.

I've no faith that future Govt's will learn from this, politics just get in the way.


----------



## prawn_86 (3 March 2009)

I can appreciate your viewpoint M34N and see what your saying.

I would argue however that regulations need to be relaxed if/when we do get through all this. A true laisse fairre (sp?) system: one tax rate, no deductions, no political lobbying/donations allowed, no breaks favouring certain industrys etc etc

Never going to happen though...


----------



## Stormin_Norman (3 March 2009)

rubbish.

bailouts and nationalisation are the same thing. saving companies who calculated their risk by including the knowledge that should things go bad they are 'too big to fail' and they would be rescued.

by not allowing creative destruction the governments are dooming the world to a far longer economic turn down then necessary.

how will nationalisation solve anything? how will keeping bad debts alive and inefficient companies operating lead to future growth?

someone has to pay one way or another. all the current plan does it take bad debts and inefficient companies and make them public liabilities. the capitalists who made poor decisions are saved and generations of taxpayers foot the bill.

the current situation isnt a problem, its a solution. the cause of the current situation is the problem - poor investment decisions, inefficient manufacturing practices and negative saving rates.

the world has to change as some of you point out. governments say it has to change. yet everything is geared at keeping it the same as it was before.

bailing out bad firms creates a moral hazard, which was part reason for the miscalculation of risk and the problem of the 'boom times'.

trying to stop the current solution is impossible and disregards the changes that need to occur.

i for one do not want to be paying massive tax and coping with high inflation for decades because some firms were deemed 'too big to fail' and acted as such.


----------



## Glen48 (3 March 2009)

5000 on the Dow


500 on the S&P 500, and


900 on the Nasdaq. 
Today, Dow 5000 may seem far away. But with the Industrials closing at 7063 on Friday, it's actually relatively close: All that's needed to reach 5000 is another 29 percent decline ”” a modest move in contrast to the massive wipeouts already witnessed in the shares of our nation's largest banks. 

And in America's Second Great Depression, the averages could easily fall to even lower levels. 

Even worse Mr. W. Capper getting elected to the Qld government???


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

I have to agree with you too S Norman but there doesn't seem to be an easy way out.

Perhaps go back to my original thoughts and that is perhaps all the billions should have been put aside for social benefits and just let the whole thing go belly up.


----------



## Stormin_Norman (3 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I have to agree with you too S Norman but there doesn't seem to be an easy way out.
> 
> Perhaps go back to my original thoughts and that is perhaps all the billions should have been put aside for social benefits and just let the whole thing go belly up.




the billions should not be borrowed. every dollar the government takes in borrowing is $1+ interest future generations have to repay and reduce their spending because of.

welfare produces nothing.

work on freeing up credit markets. if anything borrow money and create enterprise banks, looking to lend to entrepreneurs who have profitable ideas and products.

at the moment any profitable idea is being ignored for the benefit of unprofitable firms 'too big to fail'.

unfortunately governments are too big to not interfere.


----------



## M34N (3 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I have to agree with you too S Norman but there doesn't seem to be an easy way out.
> 
> Perhaps go back to my original thoughts and that is perhaps all the billions should have been put aside for social benefits and just let the whole thing go belly up.




Well that's the thing, you either prop up these companies now with taxpayer money for them to survive into the future and keep people employed, or risk having all the people employed by this company, and the countless millions who are employed thanks to those companies and their debts that they owe losing their jobs. In other words, have millions unemployed collecting the dole or have them employed and making a living and eventually having them turn a profit and return to 'normal'.

There is no perfect solution I agree, but I feel this is the best solution. Ideally, like prawn said earlier, it should of never happened in the first place and steps should be taken to ensure it never happens again. But that's too late, and if people here are comfortable with millions losing their jobs around the world, and worse things to come (even potential wars etc), then that's not good enough in my opinion. Another great depression in the making and government sitting on their hands and doing nothing is not acceptable IMO. 

But each to their own and everyone has their opinion


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

Stormin_Norman said:


> the billions should not be borrowed. every dollar the government takes in borrowing is $1+ interest future generations have to repay and reduce their spending because of.
> welfare produces nothing.
> work on freeing up credit markets. if anything borrow money and create enterprise banks, looking to lend to entrepreneurs who have profitable ideas and products.
> at the moment any profitable idea is being ignored for the benefit of unprofitable firms 'too big to fail'.
> unfortunately governments are too big to not interfere.




I meant put the money aside for the million or more that will be out of work.

The money has to start flowing again, but I think it's almost too late, they're not going to do it.


----------



## Stormin_Norman (3 March 2009)

bailout and the dole are the same thing.

one costs the government bucketloads while u work.

the other costs the government bucketloads while u watch days of out lives.

workers going to work are costing future generations. they must be employed by profit making firms, because loss making firms are of no good to anyone.

small business  has provided 80% of job growth over the past 5 years.

this policy where the government is taking their access to credit to save the 20% is the problem.

while a company sacking 2000 workers may make news for a week, a company laying off 2 workers wont. given the statistics for every 2,000 job losses a large company makes, there's the potential for 8,000 small business jobs to go.

bailing out the big companies who run at loss at the expense of small, innovative small companies is criminal.

but the current debate is all about what can be seen. and what makes papers is politicians falsely claiming solutions and inefficient companies succumbing to their problems.

lets not take the good down to save the bad.


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

> bailout and the dole are the same thing.




No, with the dole the companies get wiped out, with a bailout they don't........well not this year maybe.


----------



## prawn_86 (3 March 2009)

Stormin_Norman said:


> lets not take the good down to save the bad.




Too late...


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Too late...




An English teacher of mine way back when, said the 2 saddest words in the English language are "too late"


----------



## Stormin_Norman (3 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> No, with the dole the companies get wiped out, with a bailout they don't........well not this year maybe.




did you read the remainder of my point? youre agreeing with me.

its merely delaying the inevitable for these companies. causing efficient ones to struggle for credit.

might as well drop the economy into the florida everglades.


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

Stormin_Norman said:


> did you read the remainder of my point? youre agreeing with me.
> 
> its merely delaying the inevitable for these companies. causing efficient ones to struggle for credit.
> 
> might as well drop the economy into the florida everglades.




Yep we do agree - What I'm saying is if they let the companies go under and used the money they would have used to bail the company out on the dole for those that become unemployed that might be better than propping the company up - same expense but one option lets the company go under as it should.


----------



## prawn_86 (3 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> An English teacher of mine way back when, said the 2 saddest words in the English language are "too late"




And the 2 most beautiful are "cellar door"?


----------



## M34N (3 March 2009)

Stormin_Norman said:


> did you read the remainder of my point? youre agreeing with me.
> 
> its merely delaying the inevitable for these companies. causing efficient ones to struggle for credit.
> 
> might as well drop the economy into the florida everglades.




Sorry norman I must admit I read that first part and not the rest - at work ATM and typing this inbetween other things 

Glad we agree, either way the road ahead is not good and I think no matter what happens from here on will still lead to job losses - it's just how many there will be that is affected by these 'bailouts' or the 'nationalization' of private companies.


----------



## Stormin_Norman (3 March 2009)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25112831-5013871,00.html


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> And the 2 most beautiful are "cellar door"?




Oh yeah


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

Stormin_Norman said:


> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25112831-5013871,00.html




Some sanity at last but they better be quick and sort a deal out.


----------



## gfresh (3 March 2009)

M34N said:


> Well that's the thing, you either prop up these companies now with taxpayer money for them to survive into the future and keep people employed, or risk having all the people employed by this company, and the countless millions who are employed thanks to those companies and their debts that they owe losing their jobs. In other words, have millions unemployed collecting the dole or have them employed and making a living and eventually having them turn a profit and return to 'normal'.




I can see the reasoning behind that philosophy, of protecting the masses, but on the other hand there is also a perfectly valid "**** it, everybody needs to suffer the consequences of this" .. even if that does mean 20% unemployment, 5 years of depression and big names going bankrupt. All the large countries are doing now is drawing out a long period where recovery could be 10 years away, until all these bad debts, bad loans, bad companies, etc are slowly resolved and replaced with real profits, real efficiency, and real growth. That is the only way to clear the decks for further boom times ahead. 

Why should GM continue making cars nobody can afford to buy, that aren't efficient, that aren't what consumers want? Why keep such an inefficiency running as a zombie, when it should have been slayed through the heart long ago? 

Why keep broken megabanks with corrupt and greedy individuals afloat? those that overborrowed and over-lent, and if left to fester, so that in 10 years time they can continue to make the same mistakes and cause the next crisis. By bailing these guys out, we are by defacto supporting these very decisions that led to the crisis in the first place. 

Even though that situation would be terrible for those concerned, eventually conditions do improve of their own volition, even in the 1930's eventually, yes they did improve. There eventually becomes a point where there is no worse where it can go, everybody who has gone bankrupt has done so, their debts are wiped and you have a 'fresh foundation' to build the whole damn system again. New companies are born, new ways of doing things, new concepts are created, things come along to replace the old ones. These are what create true, sustainable, boom times. 

So while there might not be say a GM, who is to say another US car manufacturer could not eventually be created that produces super-efficient cars built on hydrogen fuel cells, electric technology, or others. If there is demand, it will be created by somebody out there, and eventually they take on more staff, they require new suppliers, the country comes out of recession through other such ventures and the cycle continues. If people still want American built cars, something will come along to meet that demand. 

But now we're simply building on the foundation of a sewage plant, taking on massive debts that could take a decade or more to clear. And that burden is placed on the workers anyhow, who have to work harder, suffer lower wages, face higher costs and other problems often time. But instead of this being a short, swift period of pain, it's a long one for everybody concerned. 

If we do want a state run system, and it seems many do with the "lets not let things fail" then lets give up the fascade of capitalism and lets go towards a centrally run system.. Half nationalised (only as last resort, not by choice!), and half privately run really is a half-baked system which in 5 years time people will be still scratching their heads over what to do about it all.


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## Green08 (3 March 2009)

After watching the decline of the DOW last night and understanding the US is probably in the 2nd wash cycle of a washing machine (mine has 8 cycles), you have the rinses spin 1000 rpm, rinse, spin 1200 rpm and draining to go.

I predict on a guess looking at my washing machine the DOW will go as low as 4800.  There is alot of dirt, and nasty micro-organisms with heavily inground stains in this lot!!!  A proper full cycle at 80 degrees should be right and ready to hang on the line after, though I would personally put the load into the dryer to remove any remaining fluff.


----------



## MR. (17 March 2009)

> *Alan Kohler *15/3/2009
> 
> *“I’ve got a prediction"*
> "Debt will be reduced. It will take a few years and while that’s happening there will be recession and rising unemployment because there is too much global capacity and the money which usually finances it’s employment will be hoarded.“




Before long, if not already, everyone will know someone who has become redundant.  This can and will only confirm concerns of one’s own job security.  You’re hardly going to go out and borrow to consume if it isn’t absolutely necessary!   It’s time to pay back debt which of course will only mushroom the problems as everyone does it at the same time.
MR.


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## Aussiejeff (8 April 2009)

Given we now have the awesome *KruddBank Pty Ltd* to look after our finances and the imminent *KRuddNet Pty Ltd* to look after our communication needs, I predict the precedent for good governance has now been set and that over the next 3 years the following important innovations will occur - 

- The gummint will create *KRuddRail Pty Ltd*. This is important since the current national and state rail systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $100Billion and will create 100,000 jobs.

- The gummint will create *KruddAir Pty Ltd*. This is important since the current national and state air transport systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $150Billion and will create 150,000 jobs.

- The gummint will create *KruddRoads Pty Ltd*. This is important since the current national and state road transport systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $400Billion and will create 200,000 jobs.

- The gummint will create *KruddPorts Pty Ltd*. This is important since the current national and state shipping ports systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $200Billion and will create 100,000 jobs.

- The gummint will create *KruddPower Pty Ltd*. This is important since the current national and state electricity provider systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $500Billion and will create 400,000 jobs.

- The gummint will create *KruddWater Pty Ltd*. This is important since the current national and state water systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $650Billion and will create 500,000 jobs.

- The gummint will create *KruddCops Pty Ltd*. This is important since the current national and state police systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $1Trillion and will create 750,000 jobs.


There you have it. A Grande Total of *2,200,000 new jobs!* And a mere snip at *only $3Trillion!*

We are home and hosed.

Done and dusted.

Thank you and,

Goodnight!


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## MrBurns (10 April 2009)

I predict 12% unemployment within 12 months and look forward to major announcements from retailers, Harvey Norman , Powerhouse and others.


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## OK2 (11 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I predict 12% unemployment within 12 months and look forward to major announcements from retailers, Harvey Norman , Powerhouse and others.




Perhaps you could lie to us all and predict something a little on the positive and the Karma will follow!!!


----------



## MrBurns (11 April 2009)

OK2 said:


> Perhaps you could lie to us all and predict something a little on the positive and the Karma will follow!!!




I'll leave that to KRudd


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## enigmatic (11 April 2009)

These charts alone show that it wont be to hard to rise above 10% Unemployment offcourse that is those looking for work and that are Out of work..





Not the offical rate of all those not working..
The other chart shows that the Number of hours each person is doing has been reducing heavily so an Unemployment of 10% is far worst now then it was back in the last two recessions..




I'm of the opinion unemployment will decline until mid to late 2010..
however I hope for a recovery by mid June otherwise as Cash doesnt get yah much any more.. 
<4.0% interest Not so good..


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## Aussiejeff (23 April 2009)

I predict Oz income tax rates for top earners to follow UK's suit in about 6 months time.



> *BRITAIN will increase its top rate of income tax to 50 per cent from next year.*
> 
> Finance minister Alistair Darling announced the change in his annual Budget.
> 
> ...




http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25373502-5005961,00.html

A massive 10% hike from 40% to 50% for those earning over 150,000 $quid might see an even bigger sell-off of higher priced real estate in UK in response, as higher earners get squeeeeezed dry. Then I guess middle-income earners will get hit after that. Doesn't sound very *stimulating* for the UK economy, eh?

We will undoubtedly suffer the same fate of massive Gov't tax increases if China doesn't burst out of the gates soon....

*sigh*


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## outback (23 April 2009)

Unfortunately Mr Rudd's handouts will have to be paid for by someone. The only way for the government to get money is to impose fees taxes and thge like, so I guess higher income tax is inevitable, maybe not only for the higher income bracket.


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## Aussiejeff (1 May 2009)

I predict....

Nothing short of a 50km diameter asteroid about to hit the planet *smack-bang* in the next 24 hours would make the Shock Market actually plummet. It has become totally de-sensitised to "bad" news. Bad news is now the new Good News! 

Yeah. Nothing, but nothing - no news, no matter how bad - has stopped world gummint choreographed re-inflation of the stock bubble.

The Bad Times are over, folks. 

Up, up & awaaaaayyyyy!


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## Glen48 (1 May 2009)

I predict the Banks will need bailing out in the next few years  because the First Home owners Bribe will have driven then to the brink and Turnbull will need to support both.


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## Mr J (1 May 2009)

outback said:


> Unfortunately Mr Rudd's handouts will have to be paid for by someone. The only way for the government to get money is to impose fees taxes and thge like, so I guess higher income tax is inevitable, maybe not only for the higher income bracket.




Bunch of thieves. Squander taxpayer's money and then punish the taxpayers for it by demanding an even greater amount of tax. It's too bad we can only have the opportunity to sack them every few years, and even then the candidate is not much better, often worse, and that the mob votes about as intelligently as those who watch Big Brother. It's no way to run a business, let alone a country. Bunch of clowns.


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## nomore4s (1 May 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> I predict....
> 
> Nothing short of a 50km diameter asteroid about to hit the planet *smack-bang* in the next 24 hours would make the Shock Market actually plummet. It has become totally de-sensitised to "bad" news. Bad news is now the new Good News!
> 
> ...




Does anyone else find it ironic that the doom & gloomers who have scared the crap out of everyone are now scratching their heads that the market is now going up on this "bad news".

Everyone was expecting/preparing for the worst but now we are a fair way into this mess most of this news isn't really new news or even unexpected news. The fact is for the moment it probably isn't as bad as everyone thought - shock horror life goes on, and for the moment things aren't really that bad especially here in Oz, and while it still may be a while off we can see a faint light at the end of the tunnel.


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## MrBurns (1 May 2009)

From Oct 08' not bad so far - 



> Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
> 
> It's just lucky we have the room to move.
> 
> ...


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## outback (2 May 2009)

Who was that insightful individual to whom you refer Mr Burns? 

I think nomore has a point, the meeja are trying to do their scaremonger bit, but most of their diatribe is not news to most people.


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## Sean K (2 May 2009)

Has anyone outlined the teams for the next world war?

I think we might have:

Team Blue:

US, GB, Aus, NZ, Singa, Jap, Fiji, South K, Ireland, ?

Team Red:

China, ?????


Thoughts?


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## MrBurns (2 May 2009)

kennas said:


> Has anyone outlined the teams for the next world war?
> 
> I think we might have:
> 
> ...




Include Queensland and Canberra in the Team Red.


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## Snakey (29 August 2009)

Snakey said:


> I predict this




on track so far
see page 8 charts


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## MrBurns (21 September 2009)

I think we've had all the real bad news we're going to get................for now, at some stage though we will have to pay the price of excessive borrowing, dunno when.

I think the market will go sideways but edge up from here.


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## grace (1 January 2010)

I thought I would bump this thread as perhaps some have some new predictions for this year.

Mr Burns was pretty accurate in a lot of his calls way way back.  Well done Burnsie.

I can't seem to find my post on here - but I'm still of the same opinion - interest default on sovereign debt, bond market collapse, currency collapses.  That's about all.  Nothing big.


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## condog (1 January 2010)

I predict with 99% accuracey that 99% predictions in here will be wrong.....

so with my 1% accuracey I predict property in pockets of undersupply will rise, property in pockets of oversupply will fall, property with neutral supply demand will be stable.

Good shares will rise, bad ones will fall, but in general the market will with some volatility rise for the first 6 months and be neutral to slightly corrective in the second 6 months.....

Major corporate debt defaults and soveriegn debt scares will trigger shock waves of over reactions by the equity and commodity markets, followed by rapid volatile corrections.

The US will stabilize but the world will become concerned with its continued use of increasing debt and the same for most European countires... which will be punished in terms of currency and market sentiment....

The Us govt will be forced to unwind lose credit and place strict rules upon banks to restore public confidence and stop public backlash...

Gloab terrorism will continue and Iran , Palestine, Isreal, Nth Korea and China will take advantage of unrecedented US unpopularity and lack of global clout.....

The ETS will fail to get through the senate and Krudd will call an early double dissolution triggered election. Mr Monk will mount a serious challenge and be narrowly defeated on the grounds of coalition instability and big screeen plasma Tv adverts funded by the public purse. 

But on the positive side VIL, AAM, IMA, ROL, TRf, JBH, WOW, and all the stock I own will go up massively and i will retire a trillionarre by years end........na the last bits possibly an exaggeration.....

Oh also Sydney FC will win the ALeague, Parramatta the NRL and who cares about the AFL or Rugby Union....


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## Putty7 (1 January 2010)

US dollar loses all credibility and a basket of currencies takes its place for global commodities.


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## Calliope (2 January 2010)

I predict for 2010;

Mr Rudd will restore efficiency to the hospital system. Waiting lists will be abolished. 

Mr Rudd will restore literacy to school leavers, so that when they enter Uni they will be able to, at least, read and write.  

Mr Rudd will turn the illegal immigrants' boats around after they have been fast tracked to Australia.

Mr Rudd will give equal status to the indigenous people as to the boat people, especially in welfare and housing. 

Mr Rudd will resolve the problems of the homeless (which he once described as a national obscenity) by apologising to them.

Mr Rudd will save the whales.

Mr Rudd with Gillard's help will restore the unions to their former dominance of the workplace. 

Mr Rudd will win the next election simply be following his credo that working class family votes can be bought.


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## Zird (2 January 2010)

I sincerely would like to hear Weatherbill's predictions. If you are still with us WB could you please contribute.


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## noirua (2 January 2010)

I predict that Wayne Swann will bring in a new tax on coal. This will make him and Mr Rudd look greener, and as more coal is exported, bring in loads of extra cash.  Thus making it possible to reduce taxation in time for the next election.


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## outback (2 January 2010)

I predict I'll be having a bottle of shiraz with dinner tonight. :


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## dutchie (2 January 2010)

Calliope said:


> I predict for 2010;
> 
> Mr Rudd will restore efficiency to the hospital system. Waiting lists will be abolished.
> 
> ...





Only after he has asked for a report on all these matters.


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## Dowdy (2 January 2010)

outback said:


> I predict I'll be having a bottle of shiraz with dinner tonight. :




I predict that bottle of shiraz will be finished by nights end :


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## wayneL (2 January 2010)

I predict:

a) A severe hangover tomorrow

b) The members of several forums will now hate me

:batman:


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## DaveMac (2 January 2010)

Dowdy said:


> I predict that bottle of shiraz will be finished by nights end :




Ha ha, I reckon the second bottle is just being opened now...  

How about a tipping comp, for interest rates, the XAO, etc?

I am calling new bear starting March '10 lasting through till Jan '11, and cash rate to 4.5 by years end.  But hell, I'll take whatever comes, I'm not fussy


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## Julia (2 January 2010)

Calliope said:


> I predict for 2010;
> 
> Mr Rudd will restore efficiency to the hospital system. Waiting lists will be abolished.
> 
> ...







dutchie said:


> Only after he has asked for a report on all these matters.



Plus a senate enquiry, and possibly a Royal Commission.


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## Smurf1976 (3 January 2010)

OK, I'll have a go at a few predictions for 2010.

1. Another significant international financial shock during 2010.

2. Oil price $100 (USD) at the end of 2010.

3. Labor wins Australian election with a reduced majority.

4. Tasmanian state election does not produce a majority for either Labor or Liberal.

5. Concern about urban water supplies in the major Australian cities generally declines although problems remain, particularly in Melbourne.

6. Concerns arise about electricity supply in NSW, kept largely secret from the public until a conditioning process starts later in the year in anticipation of problems in 2011. 

7. Gold price in AUD rises by the end of 2010.

8. Broad stock market indices rise but provide lower returns than the increase in the price of oil.


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## So_Cynical (3 January 2010)

My predictions for 2010

Labor wins Australian election with a increased majority (both houses)
Joe Hockey will be the next Liberal leader after Abbott's election thumping
Gold will break 1450 USD and 1700 AUD
Oil above 120 USD 
SLF will trade above $10
HDF will trade above $2
MDL will trade above $2
I will have a great time in Honkers


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## outback (3 January 2010)

Dowdy said:


> I predict that bottle of shiraz will be finished by nights end :






wayneL said:


> I predict:
> 
> a) A severe hangover tomorrow
> 
> ...






DaveMac said:


> Ha ha, I reckon the second bottle is just being opened now...




I was right, shiraz was verry nice.
Dowdy was right, bottle was empty before bed time.
Wayne was wrong, no hangover
DaveMAac was wrong, only the one bottle.


So all in all we achieved 50%, none too shabby.


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