# CCX - City Chic Collective



## System (10 September 2010)

Specialty Fashion Group Limited (SFH), formerly Miller's Retail Limited (MRL), is a specialty fashion multi-branded women's apparel retailer and brand owner, tailored mostly to women of various ages and sizes. The company operates the Millers, Crossroads, Katies, Autograph, City Chic, and Queenspark branded stores. Most stores are located on the Eastern seaboard, with the rest throughout Australia and NZ. Its strategy is to focus on the value end of the market. The company increased the net number of stores by 30 in 2009 to a total of 843 stores.

http://www.specialtyfashiongroup.com.au


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## greggles (12 February 2018)

Remember Miller's Retail (now Specialty Fashion Group)? Well, after sinking from around $1.20 in April 2013 to 10c in December 2017, it appears to be staging a bit of a turnaround. 

I'm pretty skeptical of bricks and mortar retail, so I won't be getting involved, but Specialty Fashion Group managed to make some good ground last week while global financial markets were in turmoil.

Whether this is the beginning of a real turnaround or just another blip on its long term downward slide remains to be seen.


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## greggles (3 April 2018)

Specialty Fashion Group up today on news that it is selling off some of its brands as part of a structural review. An offer has been received by Anchorage Capital Partners for the acquisition of City Chic and Autograph for A$100 million in cash.

The market is seeing this news as a good thing and has pushed up SFH's share price 17.61% to 41.7c.

I suppose cash is better than a struggling bricks and mortar retail brand. Women's fashion is a pretty cutthroat market. A$100 sounds like a reasonable enough deal. If it goes through.


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## greggles (14 May 2018)

Specialty Fashion Group has concluded its structural review and will be retaining its profitable City Chic business and selling its Millers, Katies, Crossroads, Autograph and Rivers businesses to Noni B Limited for $31 million in cash.

The SFH share price has spiked higher on the news and is currently trading at 56.5c, up 48.68% on Friday's close of 38c. There appears to be some resistance at 65c, so it will be interesting to see whether or not it will be able to break through that level and head higher in the short term.


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## greggles (15 June 2018)

Specialty Fashion Group continues to outperform. SFH would have to be the best performing retail stock of 2018.


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## System (27 November 2018)

On November 27th, 2018, Specialty Fashion Group Limited (SFH) changed its name and ASX code to City Chic Collective Limited (CCX).


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## Ann (27 November 2018)

I drew this chart from 2004. I really like long term charts. There is a kind of truth about them. If I said they speak to me, that would sound wierd. I am dyslexic, so therefore I am wierd. 



System said:


> On November 27th, 2018, Specialty Fashion Group Limited (SFH) changed its name and ASX code to City Chic Collective Limited (CCX).



This is interesting Joe. To me it looks like a real company. The long term view seems reliable (chart view). (It doesn't look like a pump and dump). However when I put 'ASX CCX' into google search, I get no chart. It just may be there is a transition period. I am wondering if it is a classy pump and dump as most of the other pump and dump charts look seriously suss with a familiar pattern but not this one.
I may just be suffering from a conspiracy theory overload. Anyhow, whatever, here is the chart with no comment, because I can't at the moment (face smash). However I see $1.24 as the support line. I have drawn higher support/resistance lines on the way up. The PVI is off its face but not in a way I get excited about. More like a pump and dump PVI. There are certainly volumes associated with this chart. Perhaps tech/a can elaborate if he is around and sees this post.
Chart, no comment, no prediction, simply lines of support/resistance. Decide on your own entry/ exit levels.


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## Ann (27 November 2018)

Bugger, forgot the chart.


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## greggles (14 February 2019)

A solid 1H FY19 financial result for CCX has resulted in the share price gapping up to be currently trading at $1.35, up 28.6% on yesterday's close. Here are the highlights:






A surprising result given the challenging bricks and mortar retail landscape. Looks like it might be ready to challenge that previous high of $1.455 in the short term.


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## jjbinks (14 March 2019)

CCX continuing to look good breaking through those highs from october!


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## Zaxon (15 March 2019)

It's been added to the All Ordinaries.  I'm not aware of any index fund that tracks that broad an index, but it should slightly increase its exposure.


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## Dona Ferentes (26 August 2021)

nice looking chart for the last year or 2, or 3, or 4. Now over $6.

Some words from an investor Sandon Capital (SNC) which positions itself as "activist value" in its approach



> _CCX epitomises our earlier comment about reaping rewards greater than initially anticipated.  When we first purchased the CCX, under its former name Specialty Fashion Group Ltd, we were aware of the potential of the City Chic brand, but did not fully appreciate the opportunity the business had in front of it.  As management began to hone its acquisition strategy and elaborate on the opportunity in the womens *plus size *clothing market, it became apparent the growth potential was significantly larger than we had originally anticipated.  _





> _As the adage goes, when the facts changed, we changed our minds.  Management have demonstrated a disciplined and opportunistic approach to making acquisitions, which we think is uncommon.  Recent bolt  on acquisitions in the US, the UK and Europe have provided CCX with a global platform with which to sell its highly sought after fashion to an underserved consumer base. Today, the company has a small market share of a $100bn end market that is growing at 3 to 5% per annum, providing an opportunity for many years of organic growth.  We expect the high quality management team at CCX to continue to deliver strong returns for shareholders for the foreseeable future._


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## galumay (26 August 2021)

A clothes retailer at over 60 PE! With debt. Great while it lasts, then look out!

(I own one of these clothes horses, GLB, similar crazy multiples. Its all about the cost base, my concern is for those tempted to buy at these prices.)


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## Dona Ferentes (26 August 2021)

galumay said:


> A clothes retailer at over 60 PE! With debt. Great while it lasts, then look out!
> 
> (I own one of these clothes horses, GLB, similar crazy multiples. Its all about the cost base, my concern is for those tempted to buy at these prices.)



Yeah, fair comment. Leveraging that cost base. ... good while it lasts. The fickle fashion world ... all about stock management.

Must say the unconscious use of words ... "_womens *plus size *clothing market, ... the growth potential was significantly larger "  _brought a smile, and I misread "_undeserved client base_" as 'undeserved'.


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## finicky (26 August 2021)

One I'll consider in the depths of the global deflationary bust as long as food isn't rationed


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## Bourseboy (27 August 2021)

LOL, I also read underserved as undeserved. Had to go back and look at the word twice to get the meaning of the sentence.


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## Miner (13 January 2022)

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02453198-71D82TMC9EOS5FL8LOTD2MEQ6A/pdf?access_token=0007yJKb5CFbdjTCw7OMIyVv57dm
		

Not long ago there was SPP at $3.03 about and today $4.5 after rising a higher than $6.
Some old research prior to SPP about a year back 
https://mfam.com.au/research/city-chic-collective-asx-ccx/

DNH.
Just a lazy search on CCX seeing no posting for 5 months or so.
What the chart specialists say on this chart ??


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## Country Lad (13 January 2022)

Miner said:


> Just a lazy search on CCX seeing no posting for 5 months or so.
> What the chart specialists say on this chart ??




I probably shouldn't be commenting as I am not really a chartist, I just fool around with trends and patterns.  It looks to me like possible support around the $4 mark and of it goes below the high $3s then $2.50.


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## finicky (13 January 2022)

@Miner fwiw it's not a chart I would buy despite yesterday's buying support. 
The Daily chart has two gap downs = rapid decline.

On the 2 year weekly chart what do we see?
The strong uptrend support was  broken 6 weeks ago.
The price has broken the support of the August final low of the prior uptrend which is like a 'lower low'
I look for non orthodox head and shoulders patterns and to me the topping shape above $5 is a H&S  stretching from June to December - the neckline I take as $5, the head as >$6.50 which gives a height of 1.50 indicating a target down from the neckline of $3.50 or $3

What would change my mind would be an unexpected rapid recovery above $5 - or a weekly candlestick pair indicating a reversal like, as an example, happened back in Wuhan March 2020 on this chart - that was a  bullish engulfing pair and a hammer reversal candle.
End of astrology consultation 

2 Year Weekly


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## Miner (13 January 2022)

finicky said:


> @Miner fwiw it's not a chart I would buy despite yesterday's buying support.
> The Daily chart has two gap downs = rapid decline.
> 
> On the 2 year weekly chart what do we see?
> ...



@finicky 
Thanks  mate.
All good but not another Wuhan please.
I would like to see the three years Corona degree from Wuhan and Pfizer  is enough to earn a Bachelors degree in medicine, toxicology, finance, pharmacology  and economics for many to earn trillions.
I don't want to see any one in doing a Master or Ph D on Wuhan or Pfizer over next 4 years.


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## finicky (14 January 2022)

Whoops, up almost 12% intraday, a very strong daily move.
Unconvinced yet as this translates only to an indecisive weekly candle so far and interestingly this daily move so far only reaches my critical level of $5. Could be just a 'retest'. I am rattled though, a fast recovery above $5 was a scenario I feared in trying to call it. You might not see me again on this thread, lol

Daily


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## finicky (14 January 2022)

H1 FY22 report looks great, particularly revenue growth in the USA. EBITDA flat though cf H1 FY21 due to all sorts of unusual costs.
Clothes for disguising fat women in western societies, got to be a growing market for sure until plant based diets really gain ground.


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## Miner (14 January 2022)

finicky said:


> H1 FY22 report looks great, particularly revenue growth in the USA. EBITDA flat though cf H1 FY21 due to all sorts of unusual costs.
> Clothes for disguising fat women in western societies, got to be a growing market for sure until plant based diets really gain ground.
> 
> View attachment 135759



I was slack on action to buy when I posted ! Damn


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## finicky (14 January 2022)

@Miner did you know a trading update was coming up? Only possible clue to me was the type of candle and twice average volume on Wednesday - maybe I can learn something from it.
Just had a look at the basic financials and at +5 times book value looks overvalued on good but declining returns on equity - 14% ROE FY21. Price is already counting in growth?
Almost everything looks overpriced to me though, including all my own non speculative earning stocks.

Daily


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## Miner (14 January 2022)

finicky said:


> @Miner did you know a trading update was coming up? Only possible clue to me was the type of candle and twice average volume on Wednesday - maybe I can learn something from it.
> Just had a look at the basic financials and at +5 times book value looks overvalued on good but declining returns on equity - 14% ROE FY21. Price is already counting in growth?
> Almost everything looks overpriced to me though, including all my own non speculative earning stocks.
> 
> ...



@finicky 
No. I knew nothing excepting found the stock performance was under compared to what I read.
But I was not brave to buy at the prevailing price and put a lower purchase price only to see 12 pc rise.
Damn. But many a times I bought like bwx only to see prices went further.
That's market


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## Miner (8 March 2022)

Without any news CCX slumped significantly compared to rest of falling trend today.
Could there be an export market to Russia that we do not know ?


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## galumay (8 March 2022)

galumay said:


> A clothes retailer at over 60 PE! With debt. Great while it lasts, then look out!
> 
> (I own one of these clothes horses, GLB, similar crazy multiples. Its all about the cost base, my concern is for those tempted to buy at these prices.)




I hate to say 'I told you so'.


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## Country Lad (8 March 2022)

Country Lad said:


> I probably shouldn't be commenting as I am not really a chartist, I just fool around with trends and patterns.  It looks to me like possible support around the $4 mark and of it goes below the high $3s then $2.50.



Nearly there.


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## Greynomad99 (9 March 2022)

Re Finicky's post - sounds like good analysis as stock hit $3.00
Interesting that an extension of the last step up also predicts the exact low it has achieved. Will it be the bottom? In this market I'm not betting on anything, but I'd say there is a passable chance that will be the case. $3.00 (or close to it) has been a historical resistance level - so now support.


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## Miner (12 April 2022)

Today CCX was the second best from the bottom.
Have not followed CCX but noticed, a lot happened in the last couple of months
Only in Feb, one director spent some pocket money buying 50,000 shares  @$3.02


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02500225-2A1363597?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		

But Australian Super increased 2% of its holding also - what was the quality of research of this top fundi ??


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02494763-2A1360763?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		















Should I trust the following technical analysis for next month ?


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## finicky (29 May 2022)

City Chic has thrown a couple of weekly reversal type candles over the last 3 weeks so a rally wouldn't completely surprise, but whether it actually happens, or if it does would have legs as something more substantial I am clueless on.

Only posting because it was part of the discussion in recent 27 May Livewire article:
*Buy Hold Sell: 5 discounted growth stocks*
City Chic (ASX: CCX)​*James Marlay:* Slightly different tech now we're going for City Chic Collective. It must have been one of the most popular and well earned retailers in the market. Buy, hold, or sell? It's down 60% in 2022. *Josh Clark (HOLD):* Yeah. That's brutal. It's painful just to think about. It's a hold for me, City Chic. It looks way too cheap. If they can continue their previous growth trajectory, then you would buy it. But naturally it's down for a reason. They've got a lot of inventory coming into the balance sheet, so that's going to weaken the balance sheet. I think the jury is still out in terms of what gross profit margin they're going to be able to clear that inventory at how long it's going to take them and what the balance sheet's going to look like on the other side of that. So I think those question marks mean that you need to hold off for the moment. You probably need to see a result or two for some evidence. There's a lot of other things to like, but for the moment, I think it's just a hold. *James Marlay:* Hold on, City Chic. Buy, hold or a sell for you, Gary? *Gary Rollo (SELL):* I can make a case for all three, but if I had to pick one, I'd say it's a sell now. Now this is a quality small cap and I think you mentioned the point that most small cappers look at that business and say they want to own it and we are no different, but we're not in normal markets just now. We're in an area, the consumer discretionary area, that's an area where you're going to have significant uncertainty on demand to play out. You have to ask yourself if you want to take that on. Even in a stock that you'd like to get invested in and our view at the moment is no, we won't take that on. We'll wait and come back another day to buy that business so that's what we've decided. It's a sell.

Weekly


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## Miner (29 May 2022)

finicky said:


> City Chic has thrown a couple of weekly reversal type candles over the last 3 weeks so a rally wouldn't completely surprise, but whether it actually happens, or if it does would have legs as something more substantial I am clueless on.
> 
> Only posting because it was part of the discussion in recent 27 May Livewire article:
> *Buy Hold Sell: 5 discounted growth stocks*
> ...



I used to listen Livewire intently. 
After getting confused one says buy and other says sell , I reached to one of the famous contributors.
He did reply nicely. 
Because the basis of recommendation does not state teem of reference short, medium or long, so relying on what they say to live wire would not be right to base one's decision.
I liked the response and sense then use my own and discard the head and tell opinions. 
Do not hold ccx


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## Dona Ferentes (25 August 2022)

Miner said:


> Without any news CCX slumped significantly compared to rest of falling trend today.
> Could there be an export market to Russia that we do not know ?



Ah the good old days when CCX was above $3.

City Chic Collective Limited FY22 Results 

_• Sales Revenue of $369.2m up 39.0%; comparable sales growth up 25.5%  _
_• Underlying EBITDA of $47.1m up 11.3% vs FY21 representing a 12.8% margin  
• Statutory NPAT of $22.3m up 4.7% vs FY21 with Underlying NPAT of $28.5m up 14.5% vs FY21 
• Global customer base up 30% vs FY21 to 1.4m active customers, with growth in all regions  
• Global customer website traffic growth of 35% YoY to 78.6m visits
• Online comparable sales growth of 33.8%, with 82% online penetration
• Geographic diversification with 56% of revenue from Northern Hemisphere  
• Partner business grown to $30m for FY22, $22m in the second half   
• Strategic investment in inventory to manage global supply chain volatility and support continued revenue growth 
• Acquisitions of European plus-size online marketplace Navabi (July 2021) and USA plus-size marketplace CoEdition (December 2021)  _
_• Expanded funding flexibility with new $60m debt facility_

And doesn't that all sound tickety-boo! Surging ahead in all sectors, all continents, all mediums. 

And yet, and yet...........


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## Smurf1976 (25 August 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> And doesn't that all sound tickety-boo! Surging ahead in all sectors, all continents, all mediums.
> 
> And yet, and yet...........



I’m thinking it might be related to market expectations for the sector going forward, on account of broad economic trends, rather than any problem specific to the company?

Just my two cents. Do not hold but have been watching.


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## Dona Ferentes (25 August 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> I’m thinking it might be related to market expectations for the sector going forward, on account of broad economic trends, rather than any problem specific to the company?



There was an outlook, that basically said it could get tough; with the volume going through, maybe a few insto's saw a gap between what they hope for and what the target could be.

FY23 *Outlook  *
_In FY23 City Chic expects to deliver another year of profitable growth notwithstanding ongoing global economic and geopolitical uncertainty. This is underpinned by City Chic’s expanded market penetration across geographies and channels, category leadership globally and investment in its distribution infrastructure.  _
_To hedge against anticipated promotional activity within the __plus market __globally, City Chic is leveraging its unique market position to implement, where appropriate, retail price increases to mitigate the risk of margin compression and to continue to grow market share.    _
_City Chic expects inventory to normalise and is targeting $125-135m at the end of FY23, with strong cash generation delivering a positive net cash position in the second half_



Smurf1976 said:


> Just my two cents. Do not hold but have been watching.


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## Miner (27 August 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Ah the good old days when CCX was above $3.
> 
> City Chic Collective Limited FY22 Results
> 
> ...




CCX is doing successful retreat with ambitious plans


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## Miner (28 November 2022)

whats up with CCX again ? Liquidation ??


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## Tommy Shelby (28 November 2022)

Pretty astounding decline - but the AGM comments were a mess and didn't give any confidence about the current market conditions right now let alone the forecast for next year.

I understand that current rate rises are smashing retail but they've been growing much faster than other retailers with better margins.

Currently trading at 5 x EBIT...


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## Miner (30 November 2022)

some update to support my tip for Dec


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## Tommy Shelby (1 December 2022)

Couple factors have led to the price movement over the last week beyond the general market movements...

CCX bought two businesses last year but either didn't appreciate the logistical nightmare that is 3PL or couldn't stay on top of the growth but this has been a big reason for the inventory build up. They've hired more senior execs who have logistics experience etc to fix but that will take 6 months to resolve. I wouldn't be surprised if there were some write downs or realisations that the inventory count is wrong etc.

CCX's closest competitor in the US (I believe) is supposedly in serious trouble with a lot of debt on the balance sheet and have been slashing prices in the October sales which really caught management off guard. 

Barrenjoey ran a broker's call and the feedback was management were shell shocked after the recent price decline + competitors aggressive pricing. They made a good point that the market was pricing the company like its going out of business instead of trading at like 4  x EBIT with $150m in inventory (less than the MC)

I had already acquired my full portfolio % allocation around the $1.35/share so am at that self imposed limit. Normally I'd be trying to catch the falling knife but I think this needs more time to validate if management can make this come good or if it's going to implode like the market seems to think it is.

What do you when the price halves in a week and there's not enough liquidity to sell out of your position?


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## Miner (2 December 2022)

Tommy Shelby said:


> Couple factors have led to the price movement over the last week beyond the general market movements...
> 
> CCX bought two businesses last year but either didn't appreciate the logistical nightmare that is 3PL or couldn't stay on top of the growth but this has been a big reason for the inventory build up. They've hired more senior execs who have logistics experience etc to fix but that will take 6 months to resolve. I wouldn't be surprised if there were some write downs or realisations that the inventory count is wrong etc.
> 
> ...



Other than my tip, I am curious to learn what made  Spheria to build up their holding to more than 125 within a week's time.
Are they have different reading from market and buying on the dip or what ?
Look at the volume and swinging pendulum prices - who are selling and who are buying ?
shorting position 7.1% about indicates more fall


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## finicky (20 December 2022)

City ChIc down *25%* intraday following a trading update that foreshadows a small EBITDA loss for 1HFY23.
Americas region looks to be doing worst where I believe all their trading is done via website. Consumer demand there is well down.
Management says Global revenue is down 7% but gross margin is also compressed due to promotional activities.
The inventory looks high to my uneducated eye in retail matters but management says it will be within the predicted range of $168-174m.
Chart would be a risky buy but I guess down the track this might become a contrarian buy in a full recession?

Not Held
Not Buying

2 Yr Daily


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## Tommy Shelby (20 December 2022)

Bloodbath today with a downgrade - Black Friday Sales down 24% overall vs the two week period last year so it is impacting the AUS business line as well.

Note that inventory is currently $168-174m against a MC of $102m... this is about to be a Benjamin Graham stock ffs


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## finicky (20 December 2022)

I'm optimistic about the future for fat lady businesses.


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## Tommy Shelby (20 December 2022)

There are those who say it's a 'growing' market


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## Miner (20 December 2022)

It looks like I no one can stop me to earn the wooden spoon this month's tipping competition 😀.
@debtfree are u watching


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## galumay (20 December 2022)

galumay said:


> I hate to say 'I told you so'.



....like a broken record!!


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