# Stocks for the next decade



## craigj (29 May 2009)

To steal the phrase from wise owl   -   i am looking for the blue chips of tomorrow

Small caps that have great potential for their product / field / resource to make it into the big time.

Is it the technology they have, the research they have done, the quality of resource in the ground, the unique field they operate in, a product the world needs or a switch in demand or consumer sentiment that will see the company thrive.

Looking forward to suggestions


----------



## beamstas (29 May 2009)

Im not a fundamental trader
But if i had to be

I assume funda*mentals* look for companies where the product will be in demand in the future.

Following this I would steer clear of any oil companies. We'll probably fuel our cars with water within the next 10 years.

Then again, if i knew what small caps would be blue chips in the next 10 years i wouldn't worry about t/a

I'd just buy them


----------



## sam76 (29 May 2009)

I reckon you need to be searching for biotechs.


----------



## pacestick (29 May 2009)

Have a blose look at UNI that agreement with sanofi aventis to supply them with  syringes worldwide has the potential to turn the company into a major player provided they dont gey gobbled up in the meantime . Yes I am prejudiced I own some


----------



## springhill (29 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Im not a fundamental trader
> But if i had to be
> 
> I assume funda*mentals* look for companies where the product will be in demand in the future.
> ...




WATER? You kidding mate, dont you know we are in drought?
No water to drink, no water to water our gardens, wash our cars
Hell im doin my bit, taking a leaf out of the Poms book and only shower once a week
The polar ice caps are melting yet we have no water
I think i know where its all gone..... in WATERMELONS! Those thieving bastards 
All this talk of water, i gotta go take a leak.......


----------



## nunthewiser (30 May 2009)

aviva corp 

midwest wa 

do your own research


----------



## skc (30 May 2009)

Perhaps looking back 10 years at a macro level is helpful for this exercise. 

1. BRIC
2. Internet stock - but the right ones
3. Financial engineers

Looking forward 10 years, one has to picture what kind of world is it going to become...

1. Will BRIC continue to grow at the same rapid pace, or will global production be shifted to even cheaper countries? If the latter, then forget BRIC, go with VISTA.

2. Will there be enough miracle innovations for energy efficiency, or will we still be trying to pump out the last bit of oil? If the latter, then energy (and renewables) is the way to go.

3. Aside from energy, what is essential and becoming more scarce? Food, clean water and spare time comes to mind. So may be agri business, water infrastructure (and something to do with spare time).


----------



## son of baglimit (30 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Following this I would steer clear of any oil companies.
> 
> Then again, if i knew what small caps would be blue chips in the next 10 years i wouldn't worry about t/a
> 
> I'd just buy them




steer clear of oil  ??? - IMO not a good move. whilst the renewables etc are developing their technologies, the scale they currently produce energy is clearly not yet sufficient to replace fossil fuels, so expect oil/gas/coal to continue powering most of our energy needs for some time.

FWIW, and taking a signal from asia, LNG - anything to do with LNG. when the recovery starts to motor, the energy needs to come from somewhere, and that is LNG.


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (30 May 2009)

son of baglimit said:


> steer clear of oil  ??? - IMO not a good move. whilst the renewables etc are developing their technologies, the scale they currently produce energy is clearly not yet sufficient to replace fossil fuels, so expect oil/gas/coal to continue powering most of our energy needs for some time.
> 
> FWIW, and taking a signal from asia, LNG - anything to do with LNG. when the recovery starts to motor, the energy needs to come from somewhere, and that is LNG.




Too true. We're still a long way off from satisfying the world's energy needs without the use of fossil fuels. There is a lot of research being done into hydrogen powered cars but I think that we're still 10 years or so away before this technology emerges in the mainstream.

I agree with Sam76 - biotech companies are the future. Expect to find most, if not all, medicines produced using biotechnology. If you don't know anything about biotechnology I urge you to go out and learn a bit about it, it really is fascinating and it's easy to see why it's the next big thing.

Picking a biotech company for long term investment is not easy - due to the time-consuming and costly requirements for developing new medicines a lot of these companies go bust or have to sell their research to a bigger player. Also you have the issue of clinical trials producing unwanted results and then all their hard work goes down the drain.

Anyway I could go on and on but i'll quit rambling for now. As a disclaimer: I study Chemical Engineering and my major is Biotechnology. However please note I am not biased as I in fact hate chemical engineering:chainsaw: (hmm oh wait maybe that makes me biased against Chem Eng?? ) Anyway when i graduate this year I'm going to go work at a bank. However I will be following biotech stocks closely. So if you have any questions feel free to shoot them down my way and I may be able to help.

Best of luck in life!


----------



## GumbyLearner (30 May 2009)

sam76 said:


> I reckon you need to be searching for biotechs.




I hope your right Sam. 
I got into PLI years ago. They seem to be coming along quite nicely.
How grown research now with offices in California.
Still continuing trials but definitely look positive compared to existing
remedies.


----------



## craigj (31 May 2009)

i think security will continue to grow around the world as technology is forced to become smarter

so bought into ETC as their barcoding technology competes for contracts around the world

fertiliser and chemicals for crops are another area for long term growth


----------



## awg (31 May 2009)

miners that have access to Indium and Gallium. 

These "rare earth" minerals are vital for semiconductors and solar panels.

known reserves less than 10 years 

China has control over 90% of known resource.

I am wishing to find out if any ASX companies have any access to any reserves

I will do further research

anyone know?

other upcoming minerals shortages in Phosphorous, Palladium


----------



## beerwm (31 May 2009)

Someone meantioned demand.

I think you need to identify where 'future money' is headed.

Right now, the biggest companies are the OIL MAJORS.
- so ENERGY is already the biggest business to be in.

Now combine increasing energy needs with increasing GREENER ENERGY needs.
-and you have a massive influx of money in future years.

ofcourse I think my scenario is 20-50 years down the track.
OIL will still be huge until then.

by GREENER - i think,

URANIUM, GEOTHERMAL, CARBON STORAGE > GAS/LNG > SOLAR, WIND, TIDAL, ETC


----------



## Krusty the Klown (10 June 2009)

I hear Krusty Burger and Krustybrand Products Inc are fantastic prospects for the future !!!


----------



## Airfireman (3 January 2010)

Mining, minerals and metals....the world wide demand for resources will keep on keeping on....the big blue chip companies ,,,


----------



## UBIQUITOUS (3 January 2010)

pacestick said:


> Have a blose look at UNI that agreement with sanofi aventis to supply them with  syringes worldwide has the potential to turn the company into a major player provided they dont gey gobbled up in the meantime . Yes I am prejudiced I own some




TZL - Intelligent fastening technology (now with Mark Bouris as chairman). I expect a rerating when they come out of suspension

UNI - Syringes

Market Cap $280million
Building a plant to produce 1billion prefilled safety syringes pa
The only prefilled safety syringe product in the world.
Demand driven by legislation (Needlesticks and Safety Act)
Milestone payments by the 4th largest pharmacutical company in the world who use 40% of the 2billion prefills pa.
Market growing at 15-20%pa.
$55million in the bank.
Grants by government of Pennsylvania.
Coverage on Bloomberg and CNBC.
Much US interest but cannot/do not buy due to being a foreign company. This willl change on NASDAQ listing in 1 month.
The list goes on and on.


----------



## nunthewiser (3 January 2010)

Stem cell technology and development .........


----------



## UBIQUITOUS (3 January 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Stem cell technology and development .........




Agreed Nun. Look at the 6month chart of Athersys (NASDAQ). Pfizer funding to the tune of $100m certainly had an impact on the share price. Biotechs had a huge run at the turn of the last decade and then fell out of favour bigtime. The attraction to healthcare stocks is certainly returning.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AATHX

_Athersys, Inc., is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery and development of therapeutic products. Through the application of its technologies, the Company has established a pipeline of therapeutic product development programs in multiple disease areas. The Company’s current product development portfolio consists of *MultiStem, a patented and stem cell product that the Company is developing as a treatment for multiple disease indications,* and that is being evaluated in two ongoing clinical trials. _


----------



## McCoy Pauley (3 January 2010)

Disclaimer - this is not meant to be any type of advice (financial or otherwise) and everybody should do their own research.

Worldwide and Australian populations are ageing.  I'd be looking at investing in healthcare and retirement facilities.

Biotech companies can provide some excellent returns, but it's very difficult to differentiate between a company that may have invested millions on testing a dud drug or a dud product from a company that is sitting on a potential goldmine.  You also have to be certain that the company has the capacity to protect its revenue stream through big barriers to entry.

Australia is well-placed to service India and China in particular, with their growing appetite for resources.

Australia's big four banks are also collectively in a strong position to control the domestic finance markets and to compete effectively in the Asia-Pacific region.


----------



## UBIQUITOUS (3 January 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Biotech companies can provide some excellent returns, but it's very difficult to differentiate between a company that may have invested millions on testing a dud drug or a dud product from a company that is sitting on a potential goldmine.  *You also have to be certain that the company has the capacity to protect its revenue stream through big barriers to entry*.




Spot on. This was one of the key reasons why I invested in Unilife. People at the time were criticizing them by saying "Although those syringes maybe revoutionary, people in China will simply copy them". My thoughts were, "Since when did major pharmacutical companies buy medical devices from such companies?"


----------



## McCoy Pauley (3 January 2010)

I also spoke to a few people in the IT industry over the last couple of years.  They both reckon (independently of each other) that RFIDs will really take off in the next decade.  Look at companies that manufacture and sell RFIDs.


----------



## nunthewiser (3 January 2010)

Yep, all exciting stuff but im talking on a grander scale with replacement organs and limbs etc also ........ 

A very viable industry once the percieved moral factors are ironed out.


----------



## UBIQUITOUS (3 January 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> I also spoke to a few people in the IT industry over the last couple of years.  They both reckon (independently of each other) that RFIDs will really take off in the next decade.  Look at companies that manufacture and sell RFIDs.




I also agree with you on that which is why the other stock besides Unilife which I am invested in is TZL. It is a huge huge market which is opening up. Audit trail functionality is becoming a requisite for many many devices.

http://www.tz.net/products/tz-rfid-wiegand/


----------



## Putty7 (3 January 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Yep, all exciting stuff but im talking on a grander scale with replacement organs and limbs etc also ........
> 
> A very viable industry once the percieved moral factors are ironed out.




Since most people want to live forever and be healthy without making the grand lifestyle changes stem cells may be the answer of the future. I think just recently they cured a guy with MS and another who had lost the sight in one eye, it won't take long for the opinions to change as they are having groundbreaking results with illnesses previously thought uncurable. 

The best way to shorten Hospital cues is to take out lengthy recovery times, repeat procedures and complicated operations, most Health systems in the developed world are under pressure and stem cells may be the thing to lead them out from being lost in the woods.


----------



## ShareDevil (3 January 2010)

CFU - Ceramic Fuel Cells 

Small scale clustered power generation units, powered by LNG.
Beats upgrading power lines, far more efficient etc etc. Heaps of LNG, every house should have one etc etc

DYOR


----------



## UBIQUITOUS (3 January 2010)

I would just like to add one very important point which needs to be considered before pointing to 'next big thing' stories, and that is the profit margins. Many great ideas have fallen by the way just because the numbers simply don't stack up. This is an essential criteria to be fulfilled, along with a few others.

PS, about the resource boom story (and not wishing to have to have a dog fight over it here), I am just not willing to buy into any resource stock on the hope that the price of that resource wil be profitable x many years into the future because of Chindia. Can anybody guarantee that gold will always be profitable to mine? Can anybody tell be the price of Nickel 10 years from now, when company x gets around to mining it? 99% of resource stocks are an accident waiting to happen for naive investors.  Thats brings me to 2 other of my criteria for investing: Low long term debt and near term planned profitability (<2 years)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 January 2010)

CSR, RIO, ANZ and MQG

No real reason. They are survivors, can outdo the Chinese, regulators and muppets.

gg


----------



## bryan_palmer (3 January 2010)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> TZL - Intelligent fastening technology (now with Mark Bouris as chairman). I expect a rerating when they come out of suspension




Rerating up or down?


----------



## So_Cynical (3 January 2010)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> PS, about the resource boom story (and not wishing to have to have a dog fight over it here), I am just not willing to buy into any resource stock on the hope that the price of that resource wil be profitable x many years into the future because of Chindia. Can anybody guarantee that gold will always be profitable to mine? Can anybody tell be the price of Nickel 10 years from now, when company x gets around to mining it? 99% of resource stocks are an accident waiting to happen for naive investors.  Thats brings me to 2 other of my criteria for investing: Low long term debt and near term planned profitability (<2 years)




I just couldn't let this pass by without comment...the fundamentals of both Gold and Nickel are pretty straight forward as are the dev and production costs for the various types of deposits....ill go out on a sturdy limb here and say that the fundamentals indicate that in ten years time, both Gold and Nickel with be worth alot more than they are now...IMHO


----------



## Julia (3 January 2010)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> TZL
> 
> UNI - Syringes
> 
> Milestone payments by the 4th largest pharmacutical company in the world who use 40% of the 2billion prefills pa.





I'm interested in that.  Can you say which pharmaceutical company you're referring to and why they use prefill syringes?  Do they produce the drug and then wish to market it further to their advantage by using the prefill syringes?
Do they use it for more than one drug?




UBIQUITOUS said:


> The Company’s current product development portfolio consists of *MultiStem, a patented and stem cell product that the Company is developing as a treatment for multiple disease indications,* and that is being evaluated in two ongoing clinical trials. [/I]



There is massive potential in the whole stem cell R&D.
However, the religious Right have their own unreasonable objections to much of this therapy.   So TGA and the FDA approval will be affected by who is in both Houses in any country.  



nunthewiser said:


> Yep, all exciting stuff but im talking on a grander scale with replacement organs and limbs etc also ........
> 
> A very viable industry once the percieved moral factors are ironed out.



Yes, as above.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 January 2010)

Oil - long term we may well come up with something else. But for the next decade or more we're stuck with a situation of declining discoveries since the 1960's combined with surging demand from the likes of China.

Gas - the most direct alternative to oil.

Uranium - to my understanding a significant share of present consumption is from weapons decommissioning. A point must come when there's no more left to decommission - unused bombs aren't an unlimited resource. After that, it's good old supply and demand with a shortage of supply.

Biotech - if you could make algae grow fast enough then there's all the oil you could ever want...

Gold - with all the attempts at inflation going on, combined with exhaustion of mine reserves, the outlook looks positive unless we actually do end up in true deflation.

A bit of a theme in things that are an inflation hedge and in particular energy resources here...


----------



## UBIQUITOUS (4 January 2010)

Julia said:


> I'm interested in that.  Can you say which pharmaceutical company you're referring to and why they use prefill syringes?  Do they produce the drug and then wish to market it further to their advantage by using the prefill syringes?
> Do they use it for more than one drug?




Julia, the company is Sanofi Aventis and use prefilled syringes for vaccines. They are the world's largest producer of vaccinnes and largest uses of RTFS (ready to fill syringes - which become prefills once filled). I believe that they are trying to retain competitve advantage for vaccines through this. I could go on an on but for detail I will instead point you to a couple of research report (since when UNI have progressed further), and a recent Sanofi Aventis presentation.

http://www.unilife.com//index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=56

ttp://www.proactivenewsroom.com/Default.aspx?app=LeadgenDownload&shortpath=docs%2FUNI13Oct09.pdf

http://en.sanofi-aventis.com/binaries/090817_IR_Seminar_Vaccines_tcm28-26948.pdf

Basically any day now we will hear about the Unilife/SA agreement on which therapeutic drug classes SA will be retaining. Once this has been announce it allows UNI to enter agreements with other pharmacuticals for other drugs classes which do not compete with SA. eg Pfizer for HGH. It has been mentioned (not just in forums, but by the company) that UNI are in discussion with all of the other pharmacutical companies.


----------



## Frank D (4 January 2010)

Uranium is my pick and a must for the next decade.

For all those who bang on about climate change, if you want to get 
serious about it you have to begin looking at uranium. No ifs or buts.

However, it wouldn’t surprise me if the scare-mongering about 
climate change will simply shift towards scare-mongering about uranium.

And keep accumulating banking stocks:- cha ching


----------



## Taltan (4 January 2010)

Uranium and oil look good, especially at reasonable prices thanks to the GFC (oil) and Labor no nuclear policy. 

I'm much more skeptical on gold. Unlike power its value as very much perceived, no-one actually needs gold to power their electricity. Also my understanding is that a lot of the world's gold is tied up in Reserve Banks. As govts debts sore many Reserves could re-regulate to decrease their supplies. 

In fact taking this thinking further in the modern practical world the Fed reserve would probably be safer stocking barrels of oil rather than gold.


----------

