# KZA - Kazia Therapeutics



## BraceFace (2 March 2006)

I have been watching and trading Novogen with interest for about 3 years now.
Just yesterday they dropped below the $4.30 mark for the first time in over 18 months.
Then this morning, another positive announcement and a price jump up 15c.

I really like this company. They have a number of products undergoing phase I and phase II clinical trials - all with pretty decent results to date.

I have just bought back in and I don't think it will be much longer before this one is pushing the $6.00 mark again. I sold out a couple of years back at around $8.00, so even this price is achievable.

check out  www.novogen.com/
Anyone else prepared to comment on this one or possibly post a chart?


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## wayneL (2 March 2006)

BraceFace said:
			
		

> I have been watching and trading Novogen with interest for about 3 years now.
> Just yesterday they dropped below the $4.30 mark for the first time in over 18 months.
> Then this morning, another positive announcement and a price jump up 15c.
> 
> ...





I like NRT too. Over what time frame would you like to me to show BF?


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## BraceFace (2 March 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> I like NRT too. Over what time frame would you like to me to show BF?




Mmmm - good question.
I guess last 2-3 years..


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## wayneL (2 March 2006)

OK here's a weekly chart from the low in Sept '02 with 30 week MA FWIW(ah lah Stan Weinstein)

Looks to be support somewhere 'round about right here where it is. 

Cheers


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## BraceFace (2 March 2006)

I'm no chartist, but this one looks like it's about due for an upswing to me.
Good news today - up 3.74%

Any charting experts like to comment?


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## BraceFace (3 March 2006)

Seems like I spoke to soon!
Back down to $4.27 today - right back where it was 48 hrs ago.
Strange in view of good announcement yesterday.

Very fickle indeed.


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## kariba (3 March 2006)

BraceFace said:
			
		

> .......Anyone else prepared to comment on this one or possibly post a chart?




NRT - GREAT stock of the future (this year I hope) I have been in & out over the last 3 years - now out! I sold out when it dropped below $5. (sorry, I cant hold a falling share!) Phenox is amazing & IMO will get FDA approval soon. I only hope I dont wake up one morning & it is in trading halt & I have missed the boat. Hence I watch it like a hawk, looking for any sign of an announcement to come.   

cheers

PS T/A looks weak at the moment! Looks like it will retest the lows os Aug '04

Best Regards


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## BraceFace (9 March 2006)

Well, it's the usual story again......
Positive news and BANG - share price drop  
Since my last posting NRT has dropped from 4.40's to 3.90's today (and falling) - 24month lows
I am unaware of any good reason for this fall but I suspect it offers a good buying opportunity for punters.

Comments anyone....


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## BraceFace (21 March 2006)

OK now I'm really blitzed!
May 2nd - positive news on Phase 2 Clinical Trials - Share price 4.40
May 20th - Share price 3.58 and still on a downward spiral.
No other announcements in that time.

Am I missing something here or is this a BRILLIANT buying opportunity? :dunno:


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## BraceFace (21 March 2006)

BraceFace said:
			
		

> OK now I'm really blitzed!
> 
> Am I missing something here or is this a BRILLIANT buying opportunity? :dunno:





Maybe not a buy yet - down another 15c today.


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## BraceFace (24 March 2006)

Yep - I was right.
At 3.60 it WAS a Buy.
Up to 4.00 today - Phew!!


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## imaginator (29 March 2006)

guys
what do u think is happening to NRT? is it on a downtrend?
it went up to 4 from 3.6, but now to about 3.7.

i bought it at 4.1

how long do u think the downtrend below 4 will last?

this used to be my favourite stock last year, everytime it drops to about 4.3 or 4.4, it will shoot up quickly to very very high by nearly $1.

but but now....


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## BraceFace (30 March 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> this used to be my favourite stock last year, everytime it drops to about 4.3 or 4.4, it will shoot up quickly to very very high by nearly $1.
> 
> but but now....




This is exactly the reason I got a bit excited the other week when it dropped into the 4.30's.
Usually Novogen is a great trading share. Buy in the low $4's sell in 5's or 6's a few weeks or months later.

Any news the company puts out regarding it's products or clinical trials is usually well accepted by the market. But ... as you say, not this time.

I bought in at 4.47 and I am currently taking a hit, but I remain confident the NRT will be back over 5 bucks pretty soon. Blind faith perhaps, but previous history suggests this is will be the case.

I'd like to ride them all the way up to 8 bucks again......


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## BlackTie (3 June 2006)

I am not holding any NRT but have been looking at it movements for a few months. My friend get it at about 3.70 and see it at around 4 at its last rebound.  It looks like it is in the falling trend.  It jumps up by 7% yesterday   and the trading volume is pretty good. Will it ba a sign of its short term rebound perhaps back to 3.50?   

BlackT


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## BraceFace (7 June 2006)

BlackTie said:
			
		

> Will it ba a sign of its short term rebound perhaps back to 3.50?
> 
> BlackT




Jeez i hope so.....
This downward trend has been going for a while and I can't really see a reason for it.
Biotechs/Pharmacueticals are certainly not the flavour of the year.
Look at MBP and PSD also - both struggling at the minute.


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## BraceFace (19 June 2006)

What the *#@k is going on with this company!?
I know the market is down today and things are a bit shakey but come on, this is ridiculous or should I say red-iculous.
Now down to $2.23.
This was over 6 bucks not that long ago and no poor announcements since then.
Ideas , thoughts anyone?


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## BlackTie (19 June 2006)

It is in a down trend and people not have any holdings just keep watching on the sideline for the moment to get in.  But I wonder why there is no fundamental investor buying. Is it over-valued?


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## BraceFace (19 June 2006)

BlackTie said:
			
		

> Is it over-valued?




I honestly thought it was UNDER-valued at 4 bucks, and thats when I bought in. If it is not undervalued now, I'm not sure when it will be...

If one of the big brokers puts a buy on this, or if some positive news leaks out NRT could go ballistic. In my opinion anyway.

I like to know the opinions of anyone else out there that watches NRT.


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## kariba (28 June 2006)

Novogen WILL be a star IMO. Phenox will be a blockbuster drug, and they have much more.

The delay in getting thru FDA has punished the SP. I have been slowly accumulating, but we need to be patient as the current trial, although a formality, has to be completed. NRT will begin to move during the last Qtr as buyers get set for FDA approval. I dont discount that tax-loss sellers might be to blame for the current SP weakness, and that buyers could come back in post-July, hence I have taken a position again now after selling in the $5 range.

My call: Acumulate on any weakness .... this will be an Aussie beauty in years to come.

(I hope I am right & so is my bank A/c .... : )

cheers


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## imaginator (6 July 2006)

What do u think of the recent reversal of NRT?

The volume looks low. Looks like someone is trying to push it up.


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## kariba (10 July 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> What do u think of the recent reversal of NRT?
> 
> The volume looks low. Looks like someone is trying to push it up.




Volumes are good IMO! Last week we had a highest single day volume in over 12 months. Weekly volume is averaging very high & looks like it will keep going that way.

Way oversold hence IMO we are seeing a re-rating. It came a lot quicker than expected though, straight after the tax-loss selling was complete.

I am stoked & have acumulated more - come December sub-$5 will be a thing of the past

cheers


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## Freddy (6 September 2006)

An MD of Novogen has been reported as using offshore havens for tax avoidance.  Maybe there has been insider trading?


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## ray223 (15 September 2006)

Today NRT is up 15%, 800,000 plus shares were traded after market. Something's up.


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## BraceFace (16 September 2006)

ray223 said:
			
		

> Today NRT is up 15%, 800,000 plus shares were traded after market. Something's up.




You might be right, but NRT has been swinging up and down like crazy for the last few weeks. It wouldn't surprise me to see a 15% drop next week.
Still good buying IMO, but need to be patient.


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## BraceFace (19 September 2006)

Down 5% today. No surprises there.


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## Dutchy3 (11 March 2007)

This stock is at an interesting juncture.

This daily chart with 2.40 as support for the last nine months may highlight a entry point with evidence of longer term support for the STOP. One to watch over the next days / weeks


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## BIG BAD BOB (13 December 2007)

*NRT*

Anyone know what is happening with Novogen? Seems it has been the slide for a while.  They seem to be taking their time getting approval


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## Captain_Chaza (19 April 2008)

It seems to me "WE HAVE  ALL" missed the boat on the NRT

I don't know about you?
 but
Heads are going to roll on my Ship!!!!!!

Salute and Gods' speed


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## fastbuck1 (31 May 2010)

and now its 2010 the stock is in trading halt pending phase 111 results and we have a sp of .395 , i was told buy a broker in 2004 that this stock will be $45 in 2005......what a joke.....many a finger burnt on this one ...:


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## fastbuck1 (19 September 2010)

kariba said:


> Volumes are good IMO! Last week we had a highest single day volume in over 12 months. Weekly volume is averaging very high & looks like it will keep going that way.
> 
> Way oversold hence IMO we are seeing a re-rating. It came a lot quicker than expected though, straight after the tax-loss selling was complete.
> 
> ...




lol now 2010 and were at .12 and now looks like nrt will fold selling its ideas to mshl ....oh !nrt owns 75%of mshl already .....how dose that work ?????


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## yol (22 September 2012)

*NRT Novogen*

Hi i am new to this board,   does anyone know much about  NRT,    been told to invest.   cheers.


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## jancha (22 September 2012)

*Re: NRT Novogen*



yol said:


> Hi i am new to this board,   does anyone know much about  NRT,    been told to invest.   cheers.




First lesson dont listen to people who give you tips.


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## pixel (14 November 2013)

Today's announcement: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01465615
caused quite a stir. Pity nobody raised an early alert. An entry sometime in October would have been interesting.


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## skc (14 November 2013)

pixel said:


> Today's announcement: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01465615
> caused quite a stir. Pity nobody raised an early alert. An entry sometime in October would have been interesting.




Read the announcement and remembered how it ran in Feb this year, I decided to take a punt. I was too slow @ 25c on open and ended up reaching for it at 29c. I got chopped out at 34c or so and kicked myself madly when it raced to 39. But as with almost all pops, the afternoon fade was inevitable.

I actually dislike trading this kind of stocks as it requires full attention, and I can never exit at a price that makes me feel good, even though I made a small profit.


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## pixel (14 November 2013)

pixel said:


> Today's announcement: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01465615
> caused quite a stir. Pity nobody raised an early alert. An entry sometime in October would have been interesting.




... and down she goes. Smells like P&D - almost as bad as PSY. Did anyone follow the HC chatter?


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## System (29 November 2017)

On November 29th, 2017, Novogen Limited (NRT) changed its name and ASX code to Kazia Therapeutics Limited (KZA).


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## Darc Knight (8 January 2019)

@Ann   November 2017 this company did a Consolidation, then changed its name to KaziaTherapeutics Limited (KZA).

https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&...Vaw1eebKdqLr6VzwA_OLfCO7Y&cshid=1546895017504


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## Ann (9 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> @Ann   November 2017 this company did a Consolidation, then changed its name to KaziaTherapeutics Limited (KZA).




Thanks DK, good man!

I have no idea why these companies change their names. You can see the full history on the chart under any name and the ASX notices link to the old company. They say "A rose by any other name would smell as sweet", all I am smelling is the same old fertilizer.

Announced 30/10/17....10 to 1 Share Consolidation which was legal theft and stripped the investors in this company of most or all of their investment.

Then after the Consolidation and name change.....

_18/10/2018 The company completes a placement of KZA shares, primarily to sector-specialist institutional investors in Australia and internationally, at a price of A$0.38 per share. The placement will raise approximately A$3.4 million. Kazia will launch a share purchase plan to allow eligible existing holders of KZA securities the opportunity to acquire new fully-paid ordinary shares on the same terms as the placement. The SPP will open on Tuesday 23 October 2018.
_
Watch out for the Pump and Dump. These guys will want to see a profit from their investment, so far this little rose appears to be withering on its thorny little stem. 

Putting up an 18 month chart without comment. No support/resistance lines, no volumes, no MACD, no wavin' movin' averages, no money flow by any flavour, no fibonaccis, not even my fave the PVI have a little eyeball practice, is this stock going up, sideways or down? 






*WEALTH WARNING: This stock has been subject to a Consolidation in the past and may at some time in the future cause you to lose all your invested capital. Better value elsewhere.*


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## tinhat (6 March 2019)

NRT (Novogen) is now Kazia (KZA) and the broom has been swept through the joint under the new CEO (appointed a couple of years ago now).

One brain cancer drug in multiple phase II trials by different institutions in USA and Oz. Initial results hold some promise.

One ovarian cancer drug in advanced phase I trials with some indications of efficacy.

The company runs on the smell of an oily rag with not much cash in the kitty.

Very thinly traded stock (market cap was approx $32m at close yesterday from memory). It filled the gap that opened up on 20 June 2018 this morning. It's rallying hard off its all time lows.






In the long run the value of the business will be determined by the efficacy of its drugs, but with such a miniscule market cap, it might get swooped up before clinical trials are even completed.


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## Joules MM1 (6 March 2019)

tinhat said:


> NRT (Novogen) is now Kazia (KZA) and the broom has been swept through the joint under the new CEO (appointed a couple of years ago now).
> 
> One brain cancer drug in multiple phase II trials by different institutions in USA and Oz. Initial results hold some promise.
> 
> ...




thanks, tinstar!

2 ?'s

1 what's the break-up value ?
2 when is the likely cap-raise date ?


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## Joules MM1 (6 March 2019)

tinhat said:


> NRT (Novogen) is now Kazia (KZA) and the broom has been swept through the joint under the new CEO (appointed a couple of years ago now).
> 
> One brain cancer drug in multiple phase II trials by different institutions in USA and Oz. Initial results hold some promise.
> 
> ...




and this - waiting for the 3rd tick in this view might be a good idea...to ensure the current leg from Feb 6th isnt just a liquidity rinse ...as usual


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## tinhat (7 March 2019)

Joules MM1 said:


> thanks, tinstar!
> 
> 2 ?'s
> 
> ...




Thanks for the chart. Those indicators are interesting.

A1. No idea really. They still owned a couple of million dollars worth of shares in NOX. last time they reported, which they appear to be selling out of (they received the shares as settlement with NOX over an intellectual property dispute). Their only assets of value is their intellectual property around these drugs.

A2. Management doesn't like to talk much about the tricky questions of cash burn and the funding horizon. If I recall correctly the last time it was mentioned they said they have enough money to see the current trials through and get to the end of the year. They did a capital raise last year at 0.35c I think (from memory) and I took up my full entitlement, so happy days for me. It was not good timing (share price was in the doldrums) and they didn't raise much cash for their troubles. They get their research spending reimbursed by the Australian government too. The last reimbursement was just over $2m from memory.

What they appear to be banking on is some success in the Phase II trial for GDC-0084 (brain cancer), which has US orphan drug status, with the hope of monetarising that success by selling it on or licensing it out to big pharma. In fact this is the approach of the new CEO James Garner. He describes the company as a drug discovery company. He is positioning the company into being a lean mean oncology drug clinical trial research outfit with the idea that they identify candidate drugs, enter into deals with their inventors to take them into clinical trial and then seek to monetarise success by doing deals with big pharma to take them to market. That is the path that GDC-0084 is on, which was initially developed by Gentech and which they acquired through a deal that will see some royalties paid to Gentech on success.

This is a pure specki play. In a year's time this company could be worth zero or a billion with the odds for oncology drug trial success stacked against it.

This company use to be run with a lot of hype and promise by the bloke that now runs Noxopharm (NOX) and there is still some negative sentiment towards the company due to its history. Look at the chart that Ann posted earlier.


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## tinhat (23 November 2019)

Kazia went into a trading halt before the ASX open on Thursday after its poster presentation to the US Society of NeuroOncology conference was leaked online overnight, leading to a doubling of the share price on Nasdaq before trading was halted.

KZIA (nasdaq)





Kazia's lead candidate oncology drug, GDC-0084, on license from Gentech, it would appear, is starting to make waves as a potential geoblastoma treatment. The drug is now in multiple phase II and one phase I trials being run by several leading oncology research outfits.

It will be very interesting to watch the share price action on Monday, assuming that it resumes trading then. I've been trading a large portion of my holding as the price has fluctuated between 0.35 and 0.55 for a while now. Although biotech company share prices do tend to spike with exuberance after positive news, I'm not sure I will be taking any profit on the anticipated spike on Monday. The dream is that this $27m market cap company really strikes it big with this drug. There is a whole pipeline of news to flow from all the various trials GDC-0084 is currently under.

Check out the AGM presentation by the CEO:
https://www.kaziatherapeutics.com/m...9-annual-general-meeting-presentation-webcast


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## tinhat (23 November 2019)

oops - don't know where I got "geoblastoma" from, geocaching? I meant glioblastoma


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## tinhat (25 November 2019)

KZA went from being a $27M to $52M market cap company today on news of preliminary phase II clinical trial data demonstrating significant efficacy in the small trial group of glioblastoma sufferers.






What is very exciting is that the next trial is likely to be a pivotal trial; ie, a phase III trial leading to registration of the drug. Kazia has been very smart about designing its phase II trial which now places it in a position to potentially bring this drug to market in a very small amount of time (relative to the many years it usually takes to bring an oncology drug to market). The reason for this is because there has been no new drug treatment for glioblastoma in twenty years and the current drug used is only effective in 25% of patients and only leads to a progression free period of just over five months.

Phosphoinositide 3-kinase inhibitors (PI3K inhibitors) are a fairly new class of cancer drugs but Kazia's GDC-0084 is the only PI3K inhibitor that crosses the blood brain barrier. As well as Kazia's trial for glioblastoma (primary brain cancer) there are two other phase II trials of Kazia's GDC-0084 drug currently underway being conducted by leading cancer research institutions in the USA and a phase I study into a form of child brain cancer. This drug was already getting a lot of attention before these interim clinical results were released over the weekend.

Unfortunately, Kazia has had a few past lives that have left it with some baggage and an unattractive long term price chart. The guy who use to run the show when the company was called Novogen parted ways went and off to start Noxopharm (NOX). They are going to need to partner with, license out or sell the drug to big pharma to get it to market. 

The question now is how much is GDC-0084 worth and what market cap would be realistic for Kazia? $200M, $500M? 

Kazia also have another oncology drug in phase I trial for ovarian cancer and early indications are that it has displayed some positive effect in reducing tumor size.


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## tinhat (1 December 2019)

I've chosen Kazia Therapeutics as my stock tip for the December competition. I'm very long this stock and am hoping it will pay off in the long run.

I anticipate there will be increasing press attention on Kazia and their Pi3K inhibitor candidate, GDC-0084, which from next year will be referred to by WHO assigned name of "Paxalisib". Below is an extract from a news article about the early positive results from a phase 2a study of GDC-0084 as a primary glioblastoma treatment. There are another four trials currently underway for GDC-0084 with a lot of data to come out next year. Also, I believe there should be some data being reported from the phase 1 trial of their other drug, Cantrixil, under trial for ovarian cancer.

*GDC-0084 Shows Efficacy for Treatment of Glioblastoma*
Nichole Tucker
*Published Online:*8:00 PM, Wed November 27, 2019
Targeted Oncology (website)

GDC-0084, an investigational PI3K inhibitor, may delay the progression of disease in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma and unmethylated MGMT promotor status, based on results of a phase IIa study, Kazia Therapeutics reported in a press release.1

Patrick Y. Wen, MD, professor of neurology at Harvard Medical School, and the director of the Center for Neuro-Oncology at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, explained the importance of this research in a statement to the press, saying, “There is an urgent need for new therapies in glioblastoma. GDC-0084 has the potential to be an important new addition to the treatment of this very challenging disease. My colleagues and I look forward to examining further data as the study progresses."

Data presented during the 2019 Society for NeuroOncology Annual Meeting show that in 9 evaluable patients, the median progression-free survival (PFS) was 8.4 months. At the time of data cut-off, 75% of patients were still alive, and the median overall survival (OS) endpoint was not reached as a result. Overall, 47 patients were included in the study.

continues...​


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## tinhat (12 December 2019)

I've been actively investing in stocks for a decade now and I've come across stocks that have been inexplicably undervalued by the market through a cycle. Examples I can think of  that I invested in at the time, where the stock was extremely undervalued through stock price, especially post GFC are iinet, tpg (tpn), CSL, Thorn Group, AX1 (when it was previously under another code), and more recently BSL, anyway...

KZA is different in that it is a speculative biotech. But, it is seriously kicking goals with GDC-0084 and, after divesting of a lot of other candidate drugs, it is still progressing Cantrixil, albeit on a slower lane, but with phase 1 results to date demonstrating potential.

The recent step up in share price is due to early data on phase II trials of GDC-0084 in treating primary glioblastoma. There are several other trials being undertaken of GDC-0084 by leading international clinics around brain cancer. The recent news released by the company has included the suggestion that the next clinical trial is likely to be a "pivotal" trial designed to achieve registration of the drug for commercial use.

Yesterday, Kazia announced that further clinical trial of GDC-0084 will be conducted through the GBM Agile research program. This is huge. This is going to provide a potential path to commercialization (if the drug can be proven to be worth registration) at considerable less cost and time to a conventional phase III definitive study.

Why is this shortcut available and why have the doors been flung open to Kazia for GDC-0084? Because there has been no drug that has been able to progress glioblastoma treatment for over twenty years and because the current treatment provides such poor marginal outcome (and in fact no benefit for 75% of glioblastoma patients).

GDC-0084 is one of several of the recent generation of PI3k inhibitor. Some of these are demonstrating potential effect against cancers, especially breast cancer. A problem with cancers such as breast cancer, melanoma, etc, is that they often metastasize into brain cancer. GCD-0084 is the only PI3K inhibitor known to cross the blood-brain barrier. This is why several other research institutes are researching GDC-0084 in their own clinical trials. The potential scope for GDC-0084 as a "wider" acting PI3K inhibitor for therapeutic is interesting.

How Kazia (formerly Novegen) got to be the custodian of GDC-0084 as a potential brain cancer drug is a long story. The short story is that what was then called Novogen had several drugs ready to go into human trial but no financially viable means of getting there. A few years ago the Novogen board took a decisive course of action that saw the then CEO depart (he went off to establish Noxopharm) and the appointment of James Garner as CEO.

Garner did two things. He narrowed down the suite of potential Novogen drugs to take forward into human clinical trials to just Cantrixil for ovarian cancer which is currently under phase I trial. Secondly, through serendipity, he acquired the license allowing Novogen (now Kazia) to take GDC-0084 to phase II trial. I've said enough here for now. Anyone interested should go and do some background research on how this came about.

The post-worthy point to this post is, in addition to the announcement that GDC-0084 will now be proceeding under the GMB Agile program, is the shift in assumption over the business model around Kazia taking GDC-0084 commercial. The business case has always been that Kazia licensed development of GDC-0084 from Genentech (part of Roche) as an intermediary along the road to commercialisation with the intention to enter some sort of deal to pass the drug along to big pharma (perhaps back to Genetech) after having economically (on the smell of an oily rag) facilitated the drug through the trials needed to demonstrate commercial viability justifying further big phara investment.

The GBM Agile collaboration now sees Kazia better able to propel GDC-0084 further toward registration as a drug without the need for substantial funding from big-pharma. This is huge because the assumption has always been that, along with the commitments from the licensing deal with Genetech (which we don't know the specifics of) Kazia would need to significantly dilute its interest in the commercial potential of GDC-0084 in raising significant further capital to advance clinical trials and/or diluting its interest in the drug through big phara collaboration.

If you listen to this interview with CEO Garner at a bit after the 8 min mark he states that the GBM Agile pathway means it should not be assumed that a partnership with big pharma is necessary to register the drug. For me as a long term shareholder this is huge. I don't care what the share price is today or tomorrow or next year quite frankly. I am interested in what value this drug may have as a registered administered drug and excited by the scope of the potential clinical application.

After having said all of the above, it is my opinion that anyone who invests in speculative stocks such as KZA should do so after evaluating their personal circumstances, including their risk tolerance and should size their investment appropriately.


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## Knobby22 (24 December 2019)

Hi Tinhat
Saw you picked this as your yearly pick.
Have a look at TLX which is in a similar space.
Good writing above. Could go anywhere. As you say highly speculative.


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## tinhat (19 July 2020)

I am still owning a good bucket load of this stock. If anyone is researching an oncology drug then please check out the science behind what this mob has.

For all other mug punters, slowly, slowly catchy monkey...


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## Knobby22 (26 July 2020)

Pretty complex, still a while away. Science is complex, blowing my mind. Worth taking a punt. I will buy in at some stage.


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## Dona Ferentes (26 July 2020)

market cap $25mill but offices in Barangaroo towers!!


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## tinhat (26 July 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> market cap $25mill but offices in Barangaroo towers!!




Biotech is a gamble. They are in good company along with Jamie Packer. Jamie was the first kid I ever saw wearing a helmet at school cricket. He probably i still wearing that helmet. You talk about signal versus noise. What is the rent?


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## tinhat (16 August 2020)

Dr James Garner was appointed Managing Director of then Novogen (now Kazia) on 5 Feb 2016. In that time Kazia shareholders have walked through the valley of the shadow of death. As you can see from the chart below it's pretty craggy in that valley. Huge boulders litter the valley floor. 






The company turn-around and reinvention of purpose implemented by Garner appears to finally be getting some attention in the market.

Kazia is dual listed on the ASX and NASDAQ. The stock has been traded such that an arbitrage opportunity has been maintained between the ASX and NASDAQ pricing which has seen shares (issued through capital raises on the ASX) slowly drift onto the NASDAQ through the NASDAQ depository holder (The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation).

I've been a long term holder but traded my holding up and down through the capital raise cycles. Their lead candidate drug, Paxalisib (GDC-0084), for brain cancer, is currently being tested in four clinical trials, including the "GBM Agile" trial that could lead to commercial registration with the FDA if the results are successful. The FDA has been active in encouraging the GBM Agile adaptive method of the multi drug oncology trial it is being used in - which selects patients for one of three arms of treatments based on genetic criteria and utilising Bayesian statistical techniques to dynamically adjust the number of patients in the arms according to emerging signals of activity. 

The drug is also being trialed in breast cancer and has the potential to not only assist in treating other cancers but also be used in cancer patients for the prevention of metastatic secondary brain tumor. Paxalisib has received a lot of attention amongst leading oncology researchers which has lead it to being used in four concurrent clinical trials, mostly funded by external parties.

About a week ago, the FDA awarded Kazia's Paxilisib a Rare Pediatric Disease Designation for the treatment of Diffuse Intrinsic Pontine Glioma (DPIG). This allows Kazia to apply for an expedited assessment for registration of Paxilisib for DPIG pending successful results from the current trial being conducted by  St Jude Children’s Research Hospital, Memphis, USA.

There is lots of info on the kazia therapeutics website and there are lots of recent media and publicity interviews with James Garner floating around. 

It's a speculative punt and even though Kazia also have a drug for Ovarian cancer (Cantrixil) currently in phase 1 trial, Paxalsib really is a make or break, crash or crash through proposition for Kazia.


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## tinhat (17 August 2020)

Sunrise have done a couple of stories on Dr Matt Dun's work on the trial of Paxsalisib on DIPG kids including his late two year old daughter.


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## tinhat (20 August 2020)

Kazia's paxalisib granted Fast Track Designation by FDA

Nice market response to very positive news. We are finally out of the valley and ready to climb the mountain! Over the past three weeks the share price has exploded. It's probably going to remain a lumpy ride for some time as this stock is mainly held by retail/private equity. A close above $1 would be very nice, seeing as I am holding a six figure quantity of these shares.

I've normally traded through the capital raise cycle but when they raised at $0.40 earlier this year, with four clinical trials underway, I took up my full entitlement and decided I was going hold every single one of them.

I don't have a target but, as I said earlier, I don't reckon we have even begun to climb that mountain yet. It's a specki though.


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## tinhat (26 August 2020)

US FDA AWARDS ORPHAN DRUG DESIGNATION (ODD) TO PAXALISIB FOR MALIGNANT GLIOMA, INCLUDING DIPG. Announcement.

Recent article and video interview @ sharecafe explaining recent news events.


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## Dona Ferentes (29 August 2020)

the lifetime award for persistence could well go to Kazia.

Things might be about to change
- raised cash in April-May
- FDA approval
- awarded 'fast track' designation on 20/08


> Kazia is taking an unusual approach to the phase III (pivotal) trial, by joining a global study called GBM Agile. (GBM is shorthand for glioblastoma). Created independently of any individual drug company, GBM Agile seeks to standardise the clinical approach and undertake joint research, thus reducing costs and producing data in a format the FDA prefers to see. Paxalisib will be the second drug to join the study, behind a Bayer candidate called Stivarga (regorafenib).





> _"We expect to have up to 200 patients and roughly the same number of control group patients," Dr Garner says. "We hope to start the study by the end of this year. ....That will take a couple of years to run its course but at the end of that we hope to got to regulatory agencies like FDA and obtain a marketing authorisation."_



https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/0...ia-wows-investors-with-its-rare-cancer-story/


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## tinhat (13 October 2020)

I'm throwing my full entitlement at this even though as of today that would put my underwater to the market price.

KZA is my biggest holding. My vision is that I die poor.


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## over9k (13 October 2020)

Just looked at the full chart. This was once a $60 share.


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## frugal.rock (18 November 2020)

tinhat said:


> KZA is my biggest holding. My vision is that I die poor.



Stick 'em up, give me all your money. lol.
Hope you are keeping an eye on it tinhat, that gap looks like it needs closing. 
Good one for you.


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## tinhat (26 November 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Stick 'em up, give me all your money. lol.
> Hope you are keeping an eye on it tinhat, that gap looks like it needs closing.
> Good one for you.
> 
> View attachment 114887




I don't plan to die any time soon but I will die poor.

I've benefited from a few technical analysts who have corrected me on my technical reading of charts. I'm not a T/A. I buy and hold on fundamentals but time entry/exit and dabble around at my exposure based on my crude T/A skills.

'enclyclopedia of chart patterns', Bulkowski (2013, Second edition), p362 states:

"*Bull market gaps do well when they appear near the yearly high*. *Large gaps perform better than small ones.*"







While  Bulowski finds that most breakout gaps (66%) close after one year, my observation of the KZA chart posted above shows that this does not imply that gaps signal any break to a long term uptrend.

I do use gaps and retracement levels as potential entry and top-up (trend reversal) levels.


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## tinhat (30 November 2020)

I've chosen KZA for the December 2020 stock picking comp. I've said everything I can say about this stock here over some time now. It is my largest holding. I'm hoping that this drug will become all that it has the potential to be. It's retraced almost 50% from its recent run up. The market expects there to be some more news regarding drug trials before Christmas.


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## tinhat (17 December 2020)

Well, bit of a retrace going on. It's all good. Mungo MacAllum. Bless his socks. There you go. There's no point trying to steel from others if you want to have a go of things.


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## tinhat (18 December 2020)

Censors are going to get me Mungo!


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## tinhat (17 June 2021)

Mungo. Rest your bones.


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## Miner (1 August 2022)

There were not much notes on this thread.
KZA has slumped by 47% after a mild positive report announced today .
The outcome did not meet the pre defined criteria was the underlined message




			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02548352-5AKES9M2PL78UELCEB65765UAR/pdf?access_token=0007dW0mjTTVK8ruVpc5TXGOIFW5


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## noirua (31 October 2022)

Kazia Therapeutics' (ASX:KZA) paxalisib shows positive signals against preclinical melanoma models
					

Kazia Therapeutics' (ASX:KZA) paxalisib brain cancer drug has demonstrated positive efficacy signals against a range of preclinical models of metastatic melanoma.




					themarketherald.com.au
				



Kazia Therapeutics’ (KZA) paxalisib brain cancer drug has demonstrated positive efficacy signals against a range of preclinical models of metastatic melanoma.

The study showed paxalisib to be active in vitro and in vivo with data suggesting substantial activity for paxalisib as a monotherapy and greater activity in combination with MEK and BRAF inhibitors.


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