# CanOz's intermittent and sporadic trades



## CanOz

Another try at scalping while waiting for FB to open last night got me thinking about how hard it is to trade against the market, for most. This is the DAX.

Most of the profitable trades were made by selling a spike up or buying one down. Quite often i waited until the price tapped the MA. I will post a chart later with the entries on it. All on the sim of course. 

It was amazing how quickly i could make up the losses, and how after a while it felt more natural and the entries were much much better.. I'm sure TH would have some advice here, or others that scalp, Joules?

Any way i am going to keep myself from looking at my auto system by learning to scalp indexs, so I'll start another thread on the HSI later too.

Have a great weekend.

CanOz


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## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX*



CanOz said:


> Another try at scalping while waiting for FB to open last night got me thinking about how hard it is to trade against the market, for most. This is the DAX.
> 
> Most of the profitable trades were made by selling a spike up or buying one down. Quite often i waited until the price tapped the MA. I will post a chart later with the entries on it. All on the sim of course.
> 
> It was amazing how quickly i could make up the losses, and how after a while it felt more natural and the entries were much much better.. I'm sure TH would have some advice here, or others that scalp, Joules?
> 
> Any way i am going to keep myself from looking at my auto system by learning to scalp indexs, so I'll start another thread on the HSI later too.
> 
> Have a great weekend.
> 
> CanOz




i can only attack price from my pov.......what time i engage, is it early with the pros and is it a clean trend day or a transitional day, is price rotating in a range and over how many days.....what's being established? what's the set-up for news play adn is the set-up for news resulting or for news coming in a day or two? ......basic planning and perspective for the day... once that's out of the way you have all the inside games to deal with, so, yes, opps from spikes up/down plethora of traps to get into, i mean, when you see the traps being built or a clear battle of size (but its tiny points range) then you can play gate keeper ......i dont use indicators in this kind of traffic and i'm very piccy about when to engage so i'm not consistant enough to answer your questions ......i find if i get the planning right and allow a lot of movement within that context then my strike rate is healthy and use very small size.....most importantly seeing when players have shifted sell to buy side when sell liquidity halts weaker buy-side or fakes is the time i'll engage unless a previous days rotation is complete and we get momentum outside a range that's larger than whatever the days are that have held that rotation......DAX def has a diff personality just like the poms and very good at traps no where near as smooth as the spx .......i think the difference between bar spikes and liquidity rotation is a fine line to observe.......take your time on that

yeah, make up the losses.....that's a trap within itself.....i mean if the vol is wide enough you can get out of jail quickly but that can become a linear trap as an idea and you'll hang on and lose your faith in your idea when price moves just far enough and the metric your using gets dragged with price against you adn intro's frustration.....again, that would make me use extremely small size and want fractions unless i can see a large game plan being employed

i know this might sound dumb but getting trapped is a very good learning tool when using tiny size, you just 'see' differently than if in a sim or oversized bets.....

the metric is purely a permission to transact, after that permission, mm's all the game and the only game if youre looking at price through a metric rather than through your whole/overall game plan and this is what makes some traders fall into a great session and then fall into misery because they've focused through a metric rather than the purpose of the auction......

just ideas mate


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## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX*



CanOz said:


> Another try at scalping while waiting for FB to open last night got me thinking about how hard it is to trade against the market, for most. This is the DAX.
> 
> CanOz




part ii

on the way down you can see clear accum clear distribution...two diff sets of hands  you can see the liquidity game changed in the final thrust bars down...... so has the auction completed here......., volat and volumes would have died down, that's your obvious first clue for bias, the rate of price change and the width of it is different....i dont mean filtered through a metric, i mean, with tiny size on you have an onus to be aware of the activity within each bar and who's likely to be in, who's left the auction and the purpose of the last thrust down not just to stop distrib's but to get weak supply..the questions youre asking need to be different, that's the key here i think, a new set of questions rather than a new set of answers from a metric and you can call that touchy feely approach if you like, but if youre ever going to read the auction your focus needs to be at the present with the price rather than chained to what drags behind it .....i'd want to see much more of the larger time frame history for other context ideas before entering.......

more ideas


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Thanks Joules, agree on mm. I'll be using NT's chart trader to start with and i may try a few different indicators in order to see the price extremes and pullbacks that i am trying to capture. The chart trader comes with a good trade management tool that i will use to keep the losses the same, allow a break even profit and a trail for ones that allow that kind of thing.

I'll fool around on reply for a while this weekend.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX*



Joules MM1 said:


> part ii
> 
> on the way down you can see clear accum clear distribution...two diff sets of hands  you can see the liquidity game changed in the final thrust bars down...... so has the auction completed here......., volat and volumes would have died down, that's your obvious first clue for bias, the rate of price change and the width of it is different....i dont mean filtered through a metric, i mean, with tiny size on you have an onus to be aware of the activity within each bar and who's likely to be in, who's left the auction and the purpose of the last thrust down not just to stop distrib's but to get weak supply..the questions youre asking need to be different, that's the key here i think, a new set of questions rather than a new set of answers from a metric and you can call that touchy feely approach if you like, but if youre ever going to read the auction your focus needs to be at the present with the price rather than chained to what drags behind it .....i'd want to see much more of the larger time frame history for other context ideas before entering.......
> 
> more ideas




Great stuff Joules, i think for some it may be easier to see this info from the ladder, and I'll toss one of those in too and y'all can help us interpret that.

I use the buy/sell volume to look for those capitulations that can result in a reversal, as well as the three drives to a high/low.

Thanks allot mate.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

This is on market replay, I cheated a little and sped it up x3 which i think makes it easier to see how the markets moves. TH/Joules, if your reading do you use market replay for practice?

Again i was just trying to trade with the short term trend entering on pullbacks with a wide stop (20 ticks) and taking 2-6 ticks profit each time.


Cheers,


CanOz


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## tech/a

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Agree with Jules.
But I'm less methodical.

I dont scalp--I like to ride a while

I may take 4-8 trades and get stopped at B/E as I move my stops to B/E really quickly---before one keeps going. Just a different way of trading.

Prefer the FTSE and have never traded the SPX.
FTSE much more Technically tolerant.

I also dont and wouldn't use indicators.
I would however look for opportunity to have at least a contract or so on a longer term position trade.
(Note to self to bloody well do it!!!).


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



tech/a said:


> Agree with Jules.
> But I'm less methodical.
> 
> I dont scalp--I like to ride a while
> 
> I may take 4-8 trades and get stopped at B/E as I move my stops to B/E really quickly---before one keeps going. Just a different way of trading.
> 
> Prefer the FTSE and have never traded the SPX.
> FTSE much more Technically tolerant.
> 
> I also dont and wouldn't use indicators.
> I would however look for opportunity to have at least a contract or so on a longer term position trade.
> (Note to self to bloody well do it!!!).




I only glance at the RSI for divergence and OS/OB...other than that there's no time to look at it at x3 speed.

Honestly i thought i would want to :bowser: a few, but its too easy (on the SIM) to just wait and :shoot: another few points again in a few minutes.

CanOz


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## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> This is on market replay, I cheated......
> CanOz




that's great, Can ..........a lot to weed from that ......

i've found getting a chart and going to each time frame and asking what was i thinking right here for the drawdowns is a vital one.....get a black/white candle chart for the time frame you like dealing in and notate on the printed chart with no extraneous stuff use a pencil and annotate from your memory........on rare occasions i'll video prime hours especially for any new ideas i want to run as there's often too much to recall after the event but motion recalls very easily....a chart and a transaction list that's all....i realise that the time-spent and mm's are vital but theyre also the part that comes after the strategy and part of the strategy needs to come from the onus you have which is diff to get from a sim....there's the 3 ways to sharpen your strategy, to get onus, you see, onus is the key ingredient for improvment because your psyche can take on the information with correct focus, i mean, sure, youre focused in a sim and you can do the auto strats and build your game, i get that, so, what i'm saying is, if you focus on price alone and (maybe volume) then you are in the auction youre not enslaving yourself to extraneous stuff, so, that costs you in some way through time or money

to get onus, ; video way, money way or the peer pressure way
to save capital, you can use the video way or peer pressure viideo way is to film the major period or make a small period to focus on and run a video, then a day later with the transaction list review the video and make notes on the printed chart as you go......this is important because youre engaged in tactile way, youre re-entering the arena and the subconsciousness doesnt know the difference yet the onus to have correct focus is effective relative to a sim and the same goes for peer pressure where you sit next to a person who's a pro trader with your transaction list and the chart with annotations and you explain to them your thinking and you can answer their questions which again brings you back into the auction.....

look, just reading how long you held onto losers and stuff like that is great office work really when youre in a real transaction, that stuff's pedestrian, like mark webber in a sim versus fending off schumy, there's no dynamic onus like a live auction so you need to get as close in downtime to the real thing as you can, reproduce, so that all the ephemeral stuff is being experienced......it's budget experience, i know 

http://s766.photobucket.com/home/joulesmm1/set/59919

this set of jpegs is a whole xjo session plus some post-cash 10min auction from  last week and i've cherry picked the day (because i can!) you'll see 169 trades from the xjo, 3 drawdowns, + silver trades for the day and some turning and repo trades on gold for a weekly game i'm running....it's a live account and anyone who's used that platform can tell you it's real

.....note the tiny sizes, note that i have several games at one time and ill use diff size for diff strats depending what's unfurling at the time within a larger context and with size tiny as it is i can allow them to run and take other trades within smaller plays.....no volume, no indicia, no dom.....
i have to inspect the trades and recall why i decided to scale out of some and immediately enter with different size and that makes a big diff to me....i open the day flat and and closed out flat except for the spot plays

maybe i'll buy 20 xjo longs, maybe i'm in a trend day up, looking for recent activity that might clue me on reversions, set-ups for news, mid-tier money faking trendlines...so i get to the zone, go bid, soon as first fractions comes i take 2 off that's a 10% reduction of a .25% part of a 1.75% cap allocation.....trend moves on, a burst, maybe this is a distribution candle, 3/4 of a whole point rotates, i'm out 2+2+2 contracts doesnt matter if the fractions i get are higher or lower in length, 12 left on the table.....new spike and it's the right continuation signal, i add 20 contracts, 32 long now.....i immediately take every fraction i can at 2's until the 12 are gone and again, doesnt matter the length of the fractions as long as they are in the direction of momentum, then i'm looking for danger on my last (added) 20 take half points at 5's for four trades if i can or take 3 5's off quick and watch the other 5 contracts run while i'm looking for other signals, if no signals avail i'm done, closed out and i might have taken 6 fractions, some repeated,  3 whole points with the 5's, that's good for me and i know i can tighten them up, but i'm live, not here to argue with the opportunity presented and mos def not here to risk crap for the sake of it and keeping within the scope of my knowledge which is wide on some days in some phases and very small on other days or in other phases.....most of the hard work is recognising that i simply dont know what's going on and can't conduct business......

using a $1 contract for a fractional trade might sound like a waste of time but compare the data i'm receiving to a sim.....real auction feedback......

ok.....just my ideas, not anything hard n fast.....just an approach...sometimes i get beaten up on several trades before i close out, sometimes i open the screen and simply apply the IDK rule (man, I don't know!) .....mostly i work very hard at simplicity......

if i find myself reaching for an external view (m/a, a fib, a boll, whatever) that means i've lost the thread or i've reached my allocation for the trade and i'm avoiding actions that need to be taken, it's subtle and i'm getting "better" at each event with effecting what needs to be done.....if my pos size is say 1.75% of avail cap i'll be starting around .25% and look to take larger scalps within that trade set-up so i can keep going until ive reached the pos size cap, that way i can add upto the allocation that goes with the auction at the time.....

the downside: if i'm not reading the auction correctly the fault is completely with me as i am reliant on my own reading  ......this is a vital point, imho .......reliance on anything external is instantly saying that the auction is not being understood and being filtered i am, or, you are, avoiding.......at this point exiting the trade is the correct strat not because  i'm about to be stopped out, simply because i must admit that i am not reading the play, that's it, that's all, therein is the onus and responsibility.....after youve learned to read the auction process through different hours on various instruments with all their nuances and levels of activity you then head for the paper work stuff......

ideas only


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Thanks Joules,

When i a say i am using market replay its the real deal, i just don't have level II for the DOM with eSignal. I download the day if i don't have it and press play and it replays the session on the chart so i can trade it just as if it were live except i can speed it up.

Lots in your post to take in...

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> ........ i am using market replay its the real deal, i just don't have level II for the DOM with eSignal. I download the day if i don't have it and press play and it replays the session on the chart so i can trade it just as if it were live except i can speed it up.




Tops !! 

:beat:


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> Again i was just trying to trade with the short term trend entering on pullbacks with a wide stop (20 ticks) and taking 2-6 ticks profit each time.




Why the wide stop? Two bad trades and you need two good days to get back flat!


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Get rid of all the different MAs. If you find one that seems to be friendly to a trend in what ever market you are looking at I have found its also works on the next time frame up. So if it works on a 1 min as a good trend line then it will also work on the higher time frame, say 5 min, as support or resistance.

So ditch the 5 different squiggly lines. Find one that seems to contain good trends and see if it works a step up in time. Then scalp in the directions of the higher time frame with set ups on the lower.


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Here is a 30 MA on the 1 and 5 minute.

With the indicator,I like something to show divergence. I like the volume so i can see the big volume spikes develop at key levels. Other than that i have fllor pivots and the prior day OHLC.

CanOz


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> I like something to show divergence.




Yeah fair enough. Thou its too late to see divergence once its happened in an indicator when scalping so they are probably of no use in that case. You cannot scalp by reacting. You need to be thinking ahead one or two moves. You need to plan a few trades ahead or you will not be able to keep loses to a few ticks. If you want to scalp.


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah fair enough. Thou its too late to see divergence once its happened in an indicator when scalping so they are probably of no use in that case. You cannot scalp by reacting. You need to be thinking ahead one or two moves. You need to plan a few trades ahead or you will not be able to keep loses to a few ticks. If you want to scalp.




Right, so the point would be to anticipate a reversal in the order book that would result in divergence, perhaps it may only give you a clue at that stage that it might be a larger reversal? 

So really the volume is of no use either because you can see that in the book as well. Plus you have a window on the pace of the orders coming in as well. Some things that you could also look for in the book are:

Larger orders at the key levels
a stack of orders on either side



> The only thing in the DOM that is of use is who is hitting the market and when. The run up today from 2:30 to 3:30 was a perfect example of someone printing the bars. People who think that a lot of sell orders sitting in the order book will cause the price to go down should notice that the opposite is more likely to happen. That 2:30 SPI run again perfect example there was at least twice as many offers than bids and we ran 50 points into it.



So the chart is just a reference to see where the price is so to anticipate something hitting the book?

Much of this is covered in your thread, which i read again last night. But its useful consolidating those hints and tips again, for the sake of this thread at least. 

Appreciate your input heaps TH.

CanOz


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> Right, so the point would be to anticipate a reversal in the order book that would result in divergence, perhaps it may only give you a clue at that stage that it might be a larger reversal?




For divergence you need a couple of new low/highs...yeah?

By the second one that has rolled back into the old range you should already be thinking about the possibility of the next one being a fail and a bigger chance of a change in trend on the higher time frame, then again you really have two plays. A possible new and extending breakout or a change, both should be played at the outside of ranges before so called confirmation. 

Scalping = have an idea = get the position on the turn.



CanOz said:


> So really the volume is of no use either because you can see that in the book as well. Plus you have a window on the pace of the orders coming in as well.



yeah I don't take much use of it, I want my positions with the other who are _causing _the divergence not with those that have noticed it _after _its happened. What you want to look for is how the book is refreshed after the first bit has been hit, especially how its filled back up towards the end of the bar/period.



CanOz said:


> Some things that you could also look for in the book are:
> Larger orders at the key levels
> a stack of orders on either side?



 No you will always see them. What do they mean? Nothin'- you would be surprised not to see them.



> So the chart is just a reference to see where the price is so to anticipate something hitting the book?



 yeah........ I guess. After TA doesn't work. I've stated that before.....


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

this is quite interesting, I've got replay going and the SuperDom up on the screen with the 2 charts now. 

Since i have no level II on the data at the moment (only from IB), i am just getting the print size and don't know if its on the bod or offer. Is this useful to practice looking for size sill? Does it matter if its on the bid or offer? It seems logical to think that but if i were a pro unloading something i can unload into the bid or offer...

Cheers,


CanOz


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## sinner

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

IMHO the correct squiggly line to use here is not a single parameter indicator/filter but rather a non-parametric adaptive filter. These track trending/ranging well without the requirement of back-fitting the filter using yesterdays data (and hoping it sticks for todays data).

Let's say you are running it on the 5 min, you can drop to the 1 min and attempt to enter swings which would move the filter on the 5 min. This is a well known scientific method for forecasting time-series which are random or pseudo-random.

Take a look at John Ehler FRAMA (my favorite) as well as MAMA.

http://www.mesasoftware.com/technicalpapers.htm

It might work differently in the index futs (perhaps inverse), but I am doing something very similar to this when I trade forex intraday.


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## tech/a

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Why aren't you looking for set ups at Support and or Resistance?
Look for Volume coming into them. Fade it---unless it gaps through or convincingly breaks it.


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## sinner

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



tech/a said:


> Why aren't you looking for set ups at Support and or Resistance?
> Look for Volume coming into them. Fade it---unless it gaps through or convincingly breaks it.




Out of curiosity, how many S/R setups you get in a avg day? 2? 4?


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## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Trembling Hand said:


> For divergence you need a couple of new low/highs...yeah?
> 
> By the second one that has rolled back into the old range you should already be thinking about the possibility of the next one being a fail and a bigger chance of a change in trend on the higher time frame, then again you really have two plays. A possible new and extending breakout or a change, both should be played at the outside of ranges before so called confirmation.
> 
> Scalping = have an idea = get the position on the turn.
> 
> 
> yeah I don't take much use of it, I want my positions with the other who are _causing _the divergence not with those that have noticed it _after _its happened. What you want to look for is how the book is refreshed after the first bit has been hit, especially how its filled back up towards the end of the bar/period.
> 
> No you will always see them. What do they mean? Nothin'- you would be surprised not to see them.
> 
> yeah........ I guess. After TA doesn't work. I've stated that before.....




good business clues.... +1


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



tech/a said:


> Why aren't you looking for set ups at Support and or Resistance?
> Look for Volume coming into them. Fade it---unless it gaps through or convincingly breaks it.






sinner said:


> Out of curiosity, how many S/R setups you get in a avg day? 2? 4?




I don't know. I do 50-100 trades a day from support/resistance- just about all of them fades. To me support and resistance is not a here and there for the day kinda thing. I like Franks idea - support and resistance is dynamic and moves with time. Once you can see this the day is full of trades. IMO.


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## tech/a

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



sinner said:


> Out of curiosity, how many S/R setups you get in a avg day? 2? 4?




Varies.

I use a 1 min chart.
Im not scalping.
Swing trade. If I get a good run
20- 30 ticks Ill call it a night.
Only trade FTSE and DAX for an hr or so.

Here is the FTSE and this is 4 trades in 1 hr.(had it saved in piks).




As you can see I use volume in finding a possible support or resistance zone.


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



sinner said:


> IMHO the correct squiggly line to use here is not a single parameter indicator/filter but rather a non-parametric adaptive filter. These track trending/ranging well without the requirement of back-fitting the filter using yesterdays data (and hoping it sticks for todays data).
> 
> Let's say you are running it on the 5 min, you can drop to the 1 min and attempt to enter swings which would move the filter on the 5 min. This is a well known scientific method for forecasting time-series which are random or pseudo-random.
> 
> Take a look at John Ehler FRAMA (my favorite) as well as MAMA.
> 
> http://www.mesasoftware.com/technicalpapers.htm
> 
> It might work differently in the index futs (perhaps inverse), but I am doing something very similar to this when I trade forex intraday.




I slapped a MAMA on the chart Sinner but it quite tight, not sure what its telling me. I had though that an optimised MA would have been kind of kool but its not really that nessesary is it. I just want to know what the trend at the moment is, and where i could see volume/size come in yeah?

S/R yeah, the prior day OHLC is significant, Pivots, S/R areas where high volume occurred before...

I didn't say what i was and wasn't looking for, for levels yet at all

Just trying to get setup...

CanOz


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## sinner

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> I slapped a MAMA on the chart Sinner but it quite tight, not sure what its telling me. I had though that an optimised MA would have been kind of kool but its not really that nessesary is it.




The utility is simply in that you don't have to pick a parameter. With a regular MA you have to as TH said "find one that seems to be friendly to a trend in what ever market" and hope its consistent when you use it live. The adaptive MA should flatten out in range and trend in trend, regardless of time-frame/market/etc. 



> I use a 1 min chart.
> Im not scalping.
> Swing trade. If I get a good run
> 20- 30 ticks Ill call it a night.
> Only trade FTSE and DAX for an hr or so.
> 
> Here is the FTSE and this is 4 trades in 1 hr.(had it saved in piks).




Thanks tech, nice and clean...assume the 'hr or so' is the open?



> I don't know. I do 50-100 trades a day from support/resistance- just about all of them fades. To me support and resistance is not a here and there for the day kinda thing. I like Franks idea - support and resistance is dynamic and moves with time. Once you can see this the day is full of trades. IMO.




Yea that Q was more directed at tech, but thanks for the insight too


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

I've had a bit of fun on the sim today. This was my last effort on the 16th. I got caught trying to fade the big move....typical amateurish behavior...

I took TH's advice and started with one contract and built up a little war chest, then went to 4 contracts.  I tended to take 2-3 point profits...couldn't shake the 20 point SL though, I'm just not accurate enough.

This is great entertainment on a sim. I've never been much for video games buy this was sort of like a video game. Pretty good way to practice too, with market replay.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> I've had a bit of fun on the sim today. This was my last effort on the 16th. I got caught trying to fade the big move....typical amateurish behavior...




on the upside, now the amateur angle has been perfected, the pro angle is your obvious next step 

what is the average length of time of each loser
what is the longest time of a loser
what is the average time of the winner
what is the longest time of the winner


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Joules MM1 said:


> on the upside, now the amateur angle has been perfected, the pro angle is your obvious next step
> 
> what is the average length of time of each loser
> what is the longest time of a loser
> what is the average time of the winner
> what is the longest time of the winner




Yeah see your point here. I was cutting my winners short and hanging onto the losers...esp while trying to fade that strong impulsive move up...

HSI today....all i can say is watching on the book is :22_yikes:...compared to the DAX at x 3 ld:

CanOz


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Well i took my HSI honed book trader skills over the lethargic DAX and got absolutly hammered all morning (exchange time), it took me half the afternoon to get back above water. I did it my way, without the book. I use the chart trader and limit orders. You can see on the scatter. I did take a little more size as well, which you could never do unless you were having a great day, otherwise its revenge trading. 

Tomorrow I'm going to try the markets my way. I'm too old for reading these bloody books.

CanOz


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## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> I'm too old for reading these bloody books.
> 
> CanOz




:bayer: coffee/screen/spray


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Thanks to a mate on here i now have a trial on some DOM tools that let the prints linger a little longer. This is very handy for those of us that cannot recall where these big numbers hit the market. You can clearly see how the selling increases on the way down and them buyers step in at some point. Before i couldn't recall what happened on the last tick let alone ten above....Those of you that are reading a DOM without this are truly gifted!

CanOz


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## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Well I've had an interesting day trying to read the DOM on the HSI and the Dax. So far I can now notice: 
..when, to the tick a big order hits the bid or offer and stops move dead in its tracks.
..when selling into a drop in the market dries up and buyers step in
..when the market is likely to move as a result of a buy or sell order not moving the market in the opposite direction.
..when the selling or buying is being absorbed by the limit orders...

Like I said I can now notice these things, where as before it was just noise to me.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> ......
> I can now notice these things, where as before it was just noise to me.




this is the journey to reading with price rather than behind .......

sounds good, Can ....keep us aprised


----------



## tech/a

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> Well I've had an interesting day trying to read the DOM on the HSI and the Dax. So far I can now notice:
> ..when, to the tick a big order hits the bid or offer and stops move dead in its tracks.
> ..when selling into a drop in the market dries up and buyers step in
> ..when the market is likely to move as a result of a buy or sell order not moving the market in the opposite direction.
> ..when the selling or buying is being absorbed by the limit orders...
> 
> Like I said I can now notice these things, where as before it was just noise to me.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Is it that easy--- one day?
Can you transfer that knowledge into trades?


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Joules MM1 said:


> this is the journey to reading with price rather than behind .......
> 
> sounds good, Can ....keep us aprised




Thanks mate, the three months of reading the time and sales when I first started has really helped too. This must take months of screen time to be able to hone into a money making skill Tech.

This is the first time that I feel progress has been made.

CanOz


----------



## tech/a

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> Thanks mate, the three months of reading the time and sales when I first started has really helped too. This must take months of screen time to be able to hone into a money making skill Tech.
> 
> This is the first time that I feel progress has been made.
> 
> CanOz




Interested in your progression.
I remember looking at T/H's Scatter chart which is on the boards here somewhere.
At the time I noticed no real edge 50/50 ish.
I remember commenting that his profit on that chart came from a few much larger moves in the day.
The rest sort of cancelled each other out.

(Not having a go here).


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



tech/a said:


> Interested in your progression.
> I remember looking at T/H's Scatter chart which is on the boards here somewhere.
> At the time I noticed no real edge 50/50 ish.
> I remember commenting that his profit on that chart came from a few much larger moves in the day.
> The rest sort of cancelled each other out.
> 
> (Not having a go here).




Oh dear this old rubbish again.


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Tech you clearly don't know that the CFD at the time had a 2 point spread. Therefore every trade started as a 2 point loser yet my average loss was under 3 points and average win 5.

So cuz ya a duck I'll do the maths for ya,

Removing the 2 point loss to find the actual movement of the instrument,

on Average it moved 7 ticks towards me on a winner

AND less than 1 tick against me,

7:1 hows your trading going over 300 trades? Got those numbers?


----------



## skc

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Trembling Hand said:


> Tech you clearly don't know that the CFD at the time had a 2 point spread. Therefore every trade started as a 2 point loser yet my average loss was under 3 points and average win 5.
> 
> So cuz ya a duck I'll do the maths for ya,
> 
> Removing the 2 point loss to find the actual movement of the instrument,
> 
> on Average it moved 7 ticks towards me on a winner
> 
> AND less than 1 tick against me,
> 
> 7:1 hows your trading going over 300 trades? Got those numbers?




I seem to recall CMC at the time had a tiny delay in their price feed that's probably worth 1 tick per trade for someone with a fast connection... but I highly doubt that can be worked for meaningful order size.

BTW what just happened in Europe?


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Except it was with IG.


skc said:


> BTW what just happened in Europe?





Not sure but its moving.


----------



## havaiana

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Hope i'm not hijacking here but the question relates to DOM so figure it's related.
I'm coming from spot currencies so have no knowledge of this stuff, anyone know any good resourses? I know i will get comments that the only way to learn is to watch, but i think it can speed up the process if you know some of the things to look for beforehand

I've found some posts which seem to make sense, Buy 'em's posts here http://www.trade2win.com/boards/money-markets/29286-bund-bobl-schatz-thread-9.html (later in the thread he mentions he is only 17 though so i have my doubts.) Later on in the thread there are some posts from Mpoufos who seems to know his stuff... Any comments on their posts from anyone with experience appreciated

Also reading the no bs day trading ebook which seems pretty good


----------



## tech/a

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Trembling Hand said:


> Tech you clearly don't know that the CFD at the time had a 2 point spread. Therefore every trade started as a 2 point loser yet my average loss was under 3 points and average win 5.
> 
> So cuz ya a duck I'll do the maths for ya,
> 
> Removing the 2 point loss to find the actual movement of the instrument,
> 
> on Average it moved 7 ticks towards me on a winner
> 
> AND less than 1 tick against me,
> 
> 7:1 hows your trading going over 300 trades? Got those numbers?




Thought it was the future.
Was un aware it was a CFD until now.


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Personally I wouldn't bother using the DOM to flip a few ticks here and there now days unless its a particularly slow day (or time of day). There is just far to much happening in the world to worry about scalping, true scalping.

With that said DOM skills for execution and watching your bigger time frame ideas play out are without doubt 100% necessary to trade futs fulltime. If you can get a tick or two on your winners and a tick less on your loses over a career of full time trading thats equates to $100,000s.

Blind Freddy may be happy to just hit the market after a moves starts for his 8 trades a week but doing 20-50 trades a day on a handful of contracts - a few ticks per trade is real money.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Trembling Hand said:


> Personally I wouldn't bother using the DOM to flip a few ticks here and there now days unless its a particularly slow day (or time of day). There is just far to much happening in the world to worry about scalping, true scalping.
> 
> With that said DOM skills for execution and watching your bigger time frame ideas play out are without doubt 100% necessary to trade futs fulltime. If you can get a tick or two on your winners and a tick less on your loses over a career of full time trading thats equates to $100,000s.
> 
> Blind Freddy may be happy to just hit the market after a moves starts for his 8 trades a week but doing 20-50 trades a day on a handful of contracts - a few ticks per trade is real money.




Great advice.

One thing i noticed yesterday is that when the market is moving, the consolidating, moving then consolidating its easier to look at the DOM for areas that need to be overcome, trigger areas. That's where i look for entering. Quite often these can be areas such as the opposite side of the flag, or a midpoint of a triangle (understanding you're not big on chart patterns). These areas allow an entry many ticks better off than taking the break as you say. Also you'll know soon if its not working. Again its early days here but these are just some of the basic things i noticed. 

Later in the day when we were range bound, i realised in hindsight that scalping for a few points was a better play because price just kept reverting.

In any case i now totally agree, no intra-day trader should be trading without the Depth, and Time & Sales. Like i said though, without a tool to leave the prints lingering for a while, plus a few other bells and whistles i would have given up.

CanOz


----------



## havaiana

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Trembling Hand said:


> ...Blind Freddy may be happy to just hit the market after a moves starts ...




Unfortunately this is pretty much what i have been doing with forex, waiting for larger market orders to hit (or what i imagine that looks like) before entering, meaning i am in too late in the wave. Strike rate is good but R:R is a bit dodgy, less than 1:1 except for the very occasional runner.

Was hoping by trading something with DOM I could learn to get in a little earlier. I have tried other techniques like fading when momentum stops to get in earlier but my strike rate just plummets and it's hard to know when to exit (when your wrong). This technique had been no where near as effective as the above (in fact completely unprofitable)


----------



## havaiana

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> ... Quite often these can be areas such as the opposite side of the flag, or a midpoint of a triangle (understanding you're not big on chart patterns). These areas allow an entry many ticks better off than taking the break as you say. Also you'll know soon if its not working. Again its early days here but these are just some of the basic things i noticed.




I find if i make these types of plays i just get stuck inside a consolidation for ages only to by knocked out when the consolidation breaks both ends. And my transation costs are too high to play the bid and ask until the break


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



havaiana said:


> I find if i make these types of plays i just get stuck inside a consolidation for ages only to by knocked out when the consolidation breaks both ends. And my transation costs are too high to play the bid and ask until the break




Especially on the HSI, but its just a matter of being patient until you see a big order hit the bid or offer. Just before the HSI broke higher from 18660ish, the price came down low and 165 hit the offer, away it went for 20 points.

There were three other attempts that failed, every time it got to the top of the range an order(s) hit the bid.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Here is a great example of volume hitting the bid on the retracement. 

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Really struggled with the size of the stop to use. At this stage if i use a 5 tick stop on the HSI i get hit too much. If i use a ten and get it it takes too many good trades to get it back. I guess the trick is to be more selective and more accurate....easier said than done..

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> Really struggled with the size of the stop to use. At this stage if i use a 5 tick stop on the HSI i get hit too much. If i use a ten and get it it takes too many good trades to get it back. I guess the trick is to be more selective and more accurate....easier said than done..
> 
> CanOz




5 tick on the Seng  surely is only for the best of entries?? 10 to 15 seem the more sensible.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Trembling Hand said:


> 5 tick on the Seng  surely is only for the best of entries?? 10 to 15 seem the more sensible.




Ahh that's great, i thought i was totally useless there for a while...LOL!



CanOz


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Here is a nice example of getting in on a pattern early with the DOM (first Pic). Of course these are all the winning setups, no sense posting the other 100 losing ones...LOL

Then i turned around and after an iceburg alert at the triangle target and the S1, sold short for a quick few points.

Having more success with the Dax though, at least i can stay even or in profit for most of the session. The Hang Seng just kills me.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

And back in again! Another large order hit the offer.


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> And back in again! Another large order hit the offer.




You will get cut to bits chasing big orders. Grow some balls and hit into them ......


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

I wasn't sure what to do  when i saw it the first time but you sort of need to know how the market has been doing with selling or buying before deciding to go with it or stand aside. 

I'll never be hitting into them...i'll leave that to you cowboys!:cowboy:

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> I'll never be hitting into them...i'll leave that to you cowboys!:cowboy:




Nah hit the sucker, works every time.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Trembling Hand said:


> Nah hit the sucker, works every time.



 So you're playing the pop after they clean out the order book? 

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> So you're playing the pop after they clean out the order book?
> 
> CanOz




That is scalping. Use the nutz that hit out to get you fills away from the mean.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

It's been an interesting week so far on the Dax, I will try and post y results for 1 week or so of sim trades. Trading only on my laptop now, with my iPad for the forum....not bad considering I came from five screens to this...LOL!

CanOz


----------



## supermatt

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

enjoying this thread  please keep posting charts and analysis


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Well here is two days of stats with my DOM system. I'll post some examples of todays trades. 

After a week of just watching the ES, the Dax is much easier to trade, it seems to react more to the iceburgs and the big volume. I won't take a trade unless i can see that i clearly have recent DOM activity supporting my position. This seems to have increased my win rate, and allowed me to keep a tight stop.

CanOz


----------



## tech/a

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

looks much nicer.

Are you trading discretionary with rules---"System"


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



tech/a said:


> looks much nicer.
> 
> Are you trading discretionary with rules---"System"




Yes. Pretty simple. Wait for the price to make a big move. Just before the move if there is some obvious action on the DOM around an important level i will get alerts for icebergs or large market orders hitting the bid or offer. If i can't catch the move without a chase then i will either fade it, or wait until i can catch a move out of consolidation with the moving average. These seem to be the easier plays, the latter.

I'm taking 4 contracts on the Dax, which is not very realistic to me. Today I'm going to try TH's advice of building up a little buffer of profit with 1 contract and then up the size...its easy on the sim to trade 4 contracts to stat with but knowing my risk tolerance, i would be screaming in pain on the first pullback...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> Well here is two days of stats with my DOM system. I'll post some examples of todays trades.
> 
> After a week of just watching the ES, the Dax is much easier to trade....
> CanOz




only after "a" week? ......more watching to be done, Can


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Joules MM1 said:


> only after "a" week? ......more watching to be done, Can




Oh for sure, i agree. Its just easier to see whats going on in auction on the Dax. I'm very familiar with the Dax, I've been watching it for 8 months.

My worst days on the Dax were days where it just ranges and i used to get caught in the chop. I've learned to be more patient and not trade the chop, just wait for a move and catch the second leg...


CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> Oh for sure, i agree. Its just easier to see whats going on in auction on the Dax. I'm very familiar with the Dax, I've been watching it for 8 months.
> 
> My worst days on the Dax were days where it just ranges and i used to get caught in the chop. I've learned to be more patient and not trade the chop, just wait for a move and catch the second leg...
> 
> 
> CanOz




yeah, second mouse usually gets the cheese spesh when you've taken on some of the characteristics of the other players .......you'll get the same from the ES too, just like the poms have a bunch of plays which are distinctive to them.......distant to the rapid response team on the xjo/spi


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

I totally missed the big move today on the Dax, busy with some other things. Eventually caught the tail end of a couple of the moves for some nice profit, then instead of waiting for the market to react to the data i took another attempt long at a pullback...well the pullback was a reversal. Ended up giving back all my profit. :swear:

Should have been aware of the 5 pm data and then waited until i could see the markets reaction, it would have been obvious that the market didn't like the data and softened until the rate decision...stupid.

Back to where i started...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> I totally missed the big move today on the Dax, busy with some other things. Eventually caught the tail end of a couple of the moves for some nice profit, then instead of waiting for the market to react to the data i took another attempt long at a pullback...well the pullback was a reversal. Ended up giving back all my profit. :swear:
> 
> Should have been aware of the 5 pm data and then waited until i could see the markets reaction, it would have been obvious that the market didn't like the data and softened until the rate decision...stupid.
> 
> Back to where i started...
> 
> CanOz




map the day out first, map all the things out that are coming that could already have price structures set up........for instance, price might be in trend and a release comes out in the thin period, then price comes back to trend later in the day, so, you need to plan that into context......what is the auction trying to achieve with this event....who's likely to be playing or do you need to step out of the auction until the release has found balance, price has come back into some 'kind' of balance.......i think that small addition to how the day is planned out makes a major diff, at least, more options, maybe better risk.......


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Good points Joules...because i stepped into that trend i guess it was sort of mid-step...out of sync...

Anyway, got my points back, mostly on the US open as i was at a cocktail party:drink: and missed the move after rate announcement :karaoke: ..fun fun.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Todays trades so far, took me all afternoon to get back to even...that's allot of bloody focus i tell ya what!

Learning, learning...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

CanOz why bother trading 50 times in 5 hours to get nowhere except make the broker rich and your mood :frown: when we have this market which is running all over the place?

If you want to really learn scalping in this type of market. Have a 5 lot position and work in and _almost _out of it. For example the DAX looks to have made a low, jump in on a 4 lot, drop a 2 lot 10 ticks higher, then try and pick the next short term low hopefully still higher than the first low, add 2 or three, repeat. So you're picking direction from the 5 or 15 chart your working the 1 min chart.

You may find scalping so often in such a large range market will leave you more shell shocked rather than with $$


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Yup, I'm finding I'm spending too much time in between the important levels rather than taking positions at them. The DOM is giving some good heads up on where its heavy etc., bergs, but i just need to use key areas now. I find I'm getting stuck in the noise and that's where i do all the trades. The nice winners have been at areas where a low or high has gone in.

I think i can read the DOM ok now...still a little more practice though.

So much for that last low today...

Do you ever trade the Dax?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> So much for that last low today...
> 
> Do you ever trade the Dax?




Yeah low smashed. Now back up. 

Not really I don't trade anything else now, Honkers thats it. Good to do 6 hours max.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

I'm really frustrated, i think I'm getting a feel for the direction of the market and then I'm on the wrong side of it again...a pull back turns into a resumption of the DT.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

By the way TH, are you using market orders or hitting the bid and lifting the offer or is it dependent on the situation?

I don't suppose you would PM me your old NT hot key setup...? 

CanOz


----------



## tech/a

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Can
Try the FTSE

Much nicer


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



tech/a said:


> Can
> Try the FTSE
> 
> Much nicer




No data subby for it, plus i do know the Dax well. Will be practicing on CL tonight, they say its similar to the DAX but a little thicker...

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

You're on sim? What are you using for a data feed, when I was trading dax, similar style to you, the biggest problem was the connection to eurex, and the speed, would do quite well for a week or two, then get destroyed when the dax teaches you a lesson or two with one of its 350 tick one way days.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> You're on sim? What are you using for a data feed, when I was trading dax, similar style to you, the biggest problem was the connection to Eurex, and the speed, would do quite well for a week or two, then get destroyed when the dax teaches you a lesson or two with one of its 350 tick one way days.




I'm using IB...occasionally there are issues with connectivity. I have lots of warning though as IB will start disconnecting from the EU server in the morning. Usually i just reconnect and its fine. 

John Grady warns about this too, but i think it a slightly different issue....Eurex nonetheless.

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Can,

no idea wots up with email.....anyways, try these

also John (nobs) is releasing 3 vid disc soon i think.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKZV3scujoU&feature=youtu.be



it's a competition.....FT71 discusses basic trading ideas at the start and they go onto the competition, their money, no risk to you.....


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVsvi...eature=related


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Joules MM1 said:


> Can,
> 
> no idea wots up with email.....anyways, try these
> 
> also John (nobs) is releasing 3 vid disc soon i think.....
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKZV3scujoU&feature=youtu.be
> 
> 
> 
> it's a competition.....FT71 discusses basic trading ideas at the start and they go onto the competition, their money, no risk to you.....
> 
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVsvi...eature=related




Thanks mate...will try later.

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> Thanks mate...will try later.
> 
> CanOz




this ones ok, Can

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVsviqGiEbg&list=HL1340710619&feature=mh_lolz


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Joules MM1 said:


> this ones ok, Can
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVsviqGiEbg&list=HL1340710619&feature=mh_lolz




If i were to search for them, what would i search for? Got tags?


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Joules MM1 said:


> this ones ok, Can
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVsviqGiEbg&list=HL1340710619&feature=mh_lolz




Live YM tape reading scalping - daytrading for a living 

-------------------------------------------------------------------

UTS 2.0 June19 2012 FT71 - new platform with Vankar 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKZV3scujoU&feature=youtu.be


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

What a f***ing crappy start to the day....i was doing well...the wife comes home sick...i get her squared away and sit down to see the dax drop and hit 6150, i go long....then i'm thinking what the heck kind of fill is that...then i realized i've gone short...

Even though its the sim, just f***s up the whole day.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> Even though its the sim, just f***s up the whole day.




I wish I could get back my F up today. _Nearly _full size some how double clicked the dom!! into a sweep. NOT on sim  :bunny:

TT is a load of crap!!

c:


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



Trembling Hand said:


> I wish I could get back my F up today. _Nearly _full size some how double clicked the dom!! into a sweep. NOT on sim  :bunny:
> 
> TT is a load of crap!!
> 
> c:




Ouch:frown:...I would *have to* smash something!


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Can, this mornings vid from marketprofile

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYsSKzNCW-0&feature=youtu.be



> Corn Futures and Iceberg Order


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

I've seen this setup a few times on the Dax, but only today did i try and trade it...

You can see this on the order book better in my view...but the volume profile shows it nicely. During the first hour of the DAX, which is like a pre-open where the market is quite thin...there are sometimes areas where there were fewer trades and the market bolted through it. 

These thin areas can give a nice pop if you can get it in before the market gets to it. Today the offers were heavy and keep pushing the market towards this 'cliff'. I managed to get short at 6305 or so, it bounced a couple of times and then plunged through it...as usual i took profits too quickly and should have been a little more patient:frown:....anyway it was a very quick few points...It almost always reverses back up through too...but i didn't try that.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Learning to incorporate Volume Profile and the GOM-MP package into my trading. This is in attempt to define levels more clearly and get into lower frequency trades that have a higher R/R potential.

Lots of info around about Market & Volume Profile.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

This is the kind of trade I'm looking for. I need to keep out of the chop, and try to be patient enough to let these opportunities develop. 1500 EUR on one contract.

CanOz


----------



## avion

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Can, are you still trading dax? I am dabbling with sim on it. Seems fairly technical in nature (German engineering heritage i guess) but it can have nasty retracements within same 1 min bar. Using tight stops of 4-5 ticks feels very hard. Have you had any success and what sort of stops have you been using? I find quiet days/lunch easier to trade than hi vol stuff because of exactly those tight stops. Not game to open them up yet... (well, it's sim but still trying to keep it real...) Who else is trading dax?


----------



## tech/a

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



avion said:


> Can, are you still trading dax? I am dabbling with sim on it. Seems fairly technical in nature (German engineering heritage i guess) but it can have nasty retracements within same 1 min bar. Using tight stops of 4-5 ticks feels very hard. Have you had any success and what sort of stops have you been using? I find quiet days/lunch easier to trade than hi vol stuff because of exactly those tight stops. Not game to open them up yet... (well, it's sim but still trying to keep it real...) Who else is trading dax?




I trade it.
Only the first 1-3 hrs.

I've found the easiest way to trade it is to hop on momentum.
If you've watched this enough you'll know that when it goes it goes!!!
Long or short.

If it doesn't go immediately in my direction Ill sell at the first sign of weakness
If it moves 20 ticks ill give it more room.
Ill start with a 1 min chart and spread to a 3 then 9 min.
I use VSA (My own version after 15 yrs of studying Volume and Range and pattern.
Will often close at B/E.

Trick is to *ONLY TRADE* those that scream--trade me---comes with time at the screen.


----------



## avion

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Thanks Tech. Do you watch other indexes that may affect it? Like ESTX50, CAC40 and when the US opens later? Any others? I understand you trade FTSE too?


----------



## tech/a

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



avion said:


> Thanks Tech. Do you watch other indexes that may affect it? Like ESTX50, CAC40 and when the US opens later? Any others? I understand you trade FTSE too?




Used to trade FTSE.
E signal changed Codes and costs so didn't bother.
No to the other questions.
I start really early 5.30 am I'm up so I'm dead to the world by the time the US opens.

Ill only trade the DAX If I see it forming a very clear tradable pattern.
Often only a few times a week.


----------



## AverageJoe

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Interesting discussion on this major indices. 

I never thought of looking at the DAX after doing a few trades on sp200 and then decided the liquidity and volatility  is not there at anytime plus horrendous spread after Aussie business hours. I am basically a very short term Fiber/Cable trader(not a scalper)  on the London open but recently I was observing and placing a few small time trades on Dax and it sure feels like the Fiber but more volatile! 

Those who trades Dax a lot I just want to know if there are much correlations to the Fiber and the news events from the minor to major news? Do you look at Fiber/Cable at all when you are looking for your trade setups on the Dax?


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Have traded it with CFD's but with this index in particular sim is the best option until you can see consistent.
Over time I'm starting to see patterns .... then Friday night I managed to think in front of some good moves.
Waiting for around 40-50% consistency over a few months before the the real money gets used.
Huge potential trading this index hours are great as it leaves my day free.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Trading the DAX (Live)*

I started this thread a long time ago, May 2012. Since that time i really fell for the Dax. I've spent thousands of hours in front of the Depth of Market and a few charts trying to figure out how to consistently pull a living out of this market, as well as a few others. I've not traded the whole time as i took breaks for career assignments for roughly half the time. The other half i played with the Bund, the Eurostoxx, a little Crude Oil, the Xina50 and the HSI/HHI. Generally i like the direct feedback a fast market can give, it suits my personality. 

In August this year, with my wife's blessing again, i start to trade the Dax more exclusively. I was flat to slightly up in my other accounts but i had started to experience profitable weeks, even a profitable month. I knew i was making progress. So i started trading my AMP account exclusively on the Dax. I didn't have allot of success at first and the frustration led (as TH says) to over-trading and a large draw-down. During that time i knew i had one particular play that i could always count on. My directional sense of the market was good, but i just couldn't get in and hang on long enough.  

After the worst day, i took a week off trading and just contemplated my next steps. I put together a plan on how i was going to refine my little momentum play. I spent time developing a preparation checklist to help me make sure i had enough information to form the bias and put things into context each day. I re-played days that my play showed up the most, trend days. I replayed Range days and looked for new plays to put in my book. As i started trading again, i was more patient in waiting for the right opportunities. I researched back to see how the other markets were trading on my successful trades/days. I wanted to know how to do more of what worked and get rid of the random stuff that wasn't working. I found different little spins on the same sort of play that i could use. Now let me be clear, there's no secret sauce here, just a way of getting in on, as well as staying in on, my directional bias that suits my tolerance for risk. My bias is flexible too, i need to be able to flip if its clear that things have changed, but i still need work on this.

My winning days increased and my equity increased slowly, then i had a larger winning day, a 3/4 daily stop, then my account was again at an equity high. 

Its still not enough, i need to improve on what I've done in order to prevent the harsh draw-downs and over-trading. So from now until the new year I'm going through all my trades again. I'm also improving on my record keeping, with a more complete database and journal. I also need to be confident on rotational days enough to flip bias and trade the other way.

My goal is still to get a track record together in the next 12-18 months. Its either this or its back to work.

I'm not that articulate when it comes to explaining this so likely the significance of this to me may not resonate with some. The results i experienced, while still really incomplete, were realized very quickly and it was by far my biggest break through in my lone journey. 

To really make the next big breakthrough, half a year to a year of solid results, I'll need to be working at this harder. At the moment I'm putting several hours of prep, trading for only two hours, then a little bit of postmortem. I need to be doing more preparation, sitting through more of the open, more of the post lunch period looking for opportunities and keeping better records. I'll need 8-10 hours each day for this. Right now, with my little one, its just not possible. Also, once i see my consistency is there in the results, i need to add some size.

These are live trading results, I'm happy to submit statements.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## cynic

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Now I know who was on the winning side of my losing trades this quarter!
A begrudging congratulations to you Canoz on having acquired some skill in taming that daemonic son of a bourse!


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



cynic said:


> Now I know who was on the winning side of my losing trades this quarter!
> A begrudging congratulations to you Canoz on having acquired some skill in taming that daemonic son of a bourse!





"Some" being the key word cynic!


----------



## cynic

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> "Some" being the key word cynic!




Yes! There's always plenty of fight left in that beastie!


----------



## fiftyeight

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Great to see your hard work paying off CanOz


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Thanks 58!

Maybe if one of the mods could change the thread title I might use this thread as a bit of a journal for developing context before the session. Since I don't really scalp, it could be just trading the Dax....thanks in advance.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

Since coming back from the new year I've struggled a bit with my trading. The first week i was profitable the first 3 days but yet i was really struggling to pull the trigger. The third day i had a shocker, breached my day stop taking all the weeks work and then some off. This week I've managed to claw most of the pre-Christmas profit back but i still have not recovered last weeks profit. The day i hit my day stop i was not prepared well, i had no homework done and i was just getting back from the city....i was really trying to get four winning days in a row... I dug a small hole, but instead of stopping i kept trading, even during the lunch period If i had just not traded that day, i would have had a winning week and a boost to my confidence.

I've really got to stop focusing on the P/L and just on trading well when the order flow supports my trading style and plays. 

Yesterday was a great day for fast Dax order flow. I'm still working on a pullback type play where i sell a pop back into a resistance level (or visa versa). My momentum play was there too yesterday and at times i think i was confusing the two. I was up on the day 15 points or so. But I got caught when the market was trying to flush lower, but shorts kept covering, so i exited for a loss. Then it looked like the shorts were going to get flushed and i was long 2. I was wrong and got caught for 26 points. Then i got swept (thanks TH) at 16:59 for another 12 points. At that stage i was down nearly to the day stop with one more try left. I could pack up and walk away with my tail between my legs, or keep jobbing away. The order flow was still moving very quickly and market suddenly looked heavy on the offer again and the bids were getting smashed, so in i went again. i managed two more trades, the first one got my minimum take profit and stopped out on the second. The next one i managed to get in and stay in for the first target of a few points, then the second one at 40.5 for a total of 43.5 points. I was actually back in profit and finished the day up 10 points...

Lots of reflection when i was reviewing my trades today. I need to take the trades that are hardest to take. Looking at the chart today, i can see that my levels are really solid and i need to practice entering on pull backs into these levels. Its where you can get the least heat and get on a move that is more rewarding than my other momentum plays. I have those levels marked on my Dom too, but i focus on the chart too much. The chart is good for giving clues as to who is winning and if the bias is still working, but that's it, I need to get better at the order flow on the depth. 

Yesterday i tried to practice with market replay, Unfortunately NT was not cooperating, as usual.

I'm also trying to develop a play to use on the FESX, a thicker market. However, i just can't seem to focus on that order flow after being involved in the DAX order flow. So for now, I'm going to focus more on the DAX plays whilst keeping an eye on the FESX for the fade play. 

Anyway, that's it for this week, +34 points. Friday is Austin's day with Dad....


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*

A shocking visual of the above summary to start the new year...


----------



## captain black

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> I need to take the trades that are hardest to take.




That's always one of the struggles with day trading and having to make quick decisions. We're hard wired to avoid risk and rewiring your brain to think in terms of probabilities rather than the natural fight or flight response is a constant battle.

It sounds a bit odd, but one of the things I consciously do when putting on a trade is tell myself to breathe. Not a deep breath that will cause you to hyperventilate but just a conscious effort to breathe. Sounds like BS, but I found it worked for me.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



captain black said:


> That's always one of the struggles with day trading and having to make quick decisions. We're hard wired to avoid risk and rewiring your brain to think in terms of probabilities rather than the natural fight or flight response is a constant battle.
> 
> *It sounds a bit odd, but one of the things I consciously do when putting on a trade is tell myself to breathe. Not a deep breath that will cause you to hyperventilate but just a conscious effort to breathe. Sounds like BS, but I found it worked for me.*




Too right Captain, i try and do the same. Actually after i had nearly hit my stop, i took a few deep breaths in order to re-focus. I'm also learning to meditate, in order to gain more control over my awareness during critical 'fast thinking' periods. I have to laugh at people that say this job is adrenaline fueled....in my case its exactly that which i am trying to avoid. We need to stay as calm as possible in order to process a ton of information flooding your senses every second, adrenaline certainly makes this worse.


----------



## darkhorse70

Will be keeping an eye on this thread from now on.

GL Can.


----------



## CanOz

darkhorse70 said:


> Will be keeping an eye on this thread from now on.
> 
> GL Can.




Yeah i don't get much a of a chance to update it though. If I'm trading then I'm too busy preparing and then trading...sometimes you have time for a flippant comment here and there


----------



## CanOz

This quote from TH basically describes the pullback plays i'm working on...



> Have a 5 lot position and work in and almost out of it. For example the DAX looks to have made a low, jump in on a 4 lot, drop a 2 lot 10 ticks higher, then try and pick the next short term low hopefully still higher than the first low, add 2 or three, repeat. So you're picking direction from the 5 or 15 chart your working the 1 min chart.


----------



## captain black

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



CanOz said:


> I'm also learning to meditate, in order to gain more control over my awareness during critical 'fast thinking' periods.




One exercise on the sim I found that really sharpened my reaction times and focus was to set a time limit of a couple of hours and be either long or short for the entire period. I've gravitated towards "slower" markets like the Kospi and FESX so not sure how it would go on the DAX but I tried it for a couple of weeks early on and it improved my focus as well as reducing my slippage when I went back to trading my normal system.

I still do it as a bit of a warm up if I take a break from trading for a few weeks.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: Scalping the DAX (SIM)*



captain black said:


> One exercise on the sim I found that really sharpened my reaction times and focus was to set a time limit of a couple of hours and be either long or short for the entire period. I've gravitated towards "slower" markets like the Kospi and FESX so not sure how it would go on the DAX but I tried it for a couple of weeks early on and it improved my focus as well as reducing my slippage when I went back to trading my normal system.
> 
> I still do it as a bit of a warm up if I take a break from trading for a few weeks.




Yeah i like that, I'll try that for sure.


----------



## CanOz

The last few days were pivotal for me. I tried to implement my new plays this week, buying and selling pull backs to my levels. Monday was pretty brutal. I went very negative, past my daily stop. Determined to get it right however, i stopped, took a few deep breaths and pressed on. I got better at taking the trades that felt the hardest to took. I took my daily P/L from -2600 to just about -250.00 in 45 minutes. So having dug myself out of that hole, i knew that i can now execute my plays under pressure.

Today, i took a few trades in pre - cash and dug another little hole. I was down another -1800 just after the cash opened. By 5:00 pm i had just had my best day ever and my first ton day on the Dax (+1098 USD). The market has got a bit choppy now so i'll call it a day.

I did pretty much what TH had said above except i was only trading 1 lots. I think i got 2 lots on once. Other wise the market just wasn't moving far enough for me to scale in more contracts. I had a couple of momentum plays in there as well. I run two DAX Doms for this purpose because the momentum play uses the Auto Trade Manager in NT.

SO I've reached a new equity high and i feel pretty good about it, i just said to a trading buddy today before the open that i couldn't get into new equity highs...

Yesterday it took me over 50 round trips to get back almost square. Today i took only 17 RT's. I was more selective today, more patient. My average holding time has gone up as well, to over 1 minute from only 20 seconds with only my momentum play.

I've still got to refine my pullback plays a bit, so I'll spend the morning doing that....

I've also figured out a way to somewhat automate my trading levels, which is good as this was very time consuming doing it for 6 markets... 

All in all, i wish it was Friday, i really feel like celebrating. Maybe a glass of Red with dinner.


----------



## Modest

Good stuff CanOz!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Congrats Can! 

I nabbed a quick double ton for myself tonight too, I'll have a glass of red with ya  :bier:


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Congrats Can!
> 
> I nabbed a quick double ton for myself tonight too, I'll have a glass of red with ya  :bier:




Cheers Sam:alcohol:

Yeah, the biggest thing i keep thinking of is that if i hadn't had that big hole dug....but i think a little hole is helpful, sharpens me up it seems


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Something is starting to work for you canoz.

Meditating on emotions is a great exercise.  Well sort of great - the junk that comes out can be overwhelming at first.

It surprises me that many top tennis players have so much baggage (it spills out in interviews and big moments).  Hewitt for example, when he wins a big point will look at the crowd with absolute *fury and disgust* as if to say "how you like me now, asrholes??".  So it's definitely possible to be winner and have parts that are not integrated.  Actually I wonder a lot about how such repressed parts drive the need for success.  Maybe getting rid of that would make him uncompetitive - hard to know.  Or would he have won 5 slams?....


----------



## CanOz

I'm not very good or disciplined at my meditating yet, keep forgetting


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> I'm not very good or disciplined at my meditating yet, keep forgetting




Well something else is working for you.  

Maybe the thought of returning to Oz?  Mood and performance are massively correlated (studies on that around the place).


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gringotts Bank said:


> (studies on that around the place).




Yeah think I've seen one too on the correlation between skill and performance


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah think I've seen one too on the correlation between skill and performance




If it was also about skill, then Philippoussis would have been a legend (to continue the tennis theme).  He had skill in spades....alas...


"Three types of evidence suggest that the substrates of cognition
are shared with, or open to extensive influence by, the substrates of
mood. The first comes from functional neuroimaging. The other
two come from behavioral studies of cognition. These include
studies of the effects of depression on cognition, already men-
tioned, and of the effects of laboratory-induced moods on the
cognitive processes of normal healthy participants".

http://www.psych.upenn.edu/~mfarah/Emotion-SadMoodCognition.pdf


----------



## captain black

Gringotts Bank said:


> If it was also about skill, then Philippoussis would have been a legend (to continue the tennis theme).  He had skill in spades....alas...




Anna Kournikova would have put me off my game


----------



## Trembling Hand

Strange bending of the facts GB. He won over 6 mil and made the top 20 in the world for four years. If thats not good enough then I really do need to see a decent thread of yours where you bring together your pseudo psychology and trading over 50-100 trades. You know to really show us you can walk ya talk..... ?? :freak3:


----------



## Gringotts Bank

captain black said:


> Anna Kournikova would have put me off my game




Yeh has good 'game', but his tennis game didn't come close to potential.

His list of 'conquests' is impressive.


----------



## CanOz

Holy smokes, got my statement today and they took out 755 odd dollars for fees and commissions....

Thats 19.88 USD per trade or 39.79 a round trip WTF!

oops, looks like two days into one because of the holiday. Still, its 5.07 each side, gotta be a cheaper broker.


----------



## Caveroute

CanOz said:


> Holy smokes, got my statement today and they took out 755 odd dollars for fees and commissions....
> 
> Thats 19.88 USD per trade or 39.79 a round trip WTF!
> 
> oops, looks like two days into one because of the holiday. Still, its 5.07 each side, gotta be a cheaper broker.




Which broker ?

Were there other fees like for example, currency conversions for trading Euro contracts settled from a US dollar account ?


----------



## CanOz

Caveroute said:


> Which broker ?
> 
> Were there other fees like for example, currency conversions for trading Euro contracts settled from a US dollar account ?





AMP Clearing - 

149 trades

Exchange 184.16
NFA 3.26
Clearing 177.56
CQG TRF 35.51
Commision 355.12

Brutally rotational day today, market stuck in 10 tick ranges. Chewed through a bunch of brokerage and ended down -400, plus a ton of expenses again....i should have known when the market gaps that far down that it would grind around, the Hang Seng does that allot.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Trembling Hand said:


> Strange bending of the facts GB. He won over 6 mil and made the top 20 in the world for four years. If thats not good enough then I really do need to see a decent thread of yours where you bring together your pseudo psychology and trading over 50-100 trades. You know to really show us you can walk ya talk..... ?? :freak3:




I trade a system.  Reason for this is I lose my confidence trading with 100% discretion.  When I used to trade that way (discretion), I noticed a huge correlation between confidence and profits.  I went looking for evidence in the literature and found it.  It's hard, but I recognize the top guys (like yourself ) trade without a system.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gringotts Bank said:


> I trade a system.  Reason for this is I lose my confidence trading with 100% discretion.  When I used to trade that way (discretion), I noticed a huge correlation between confidence and profits.  I went looking for evidence in the literature and found it.  It's hard, but I recognize the top guys (like yourself ) trade without a system.




LOL

I'm open to learn better ways. My understanding over a few different competitive performance fields has always been,

Skill=repeatable edge above other participants=profit/success=confidence.

If you can find evidence it starts the other way,

confidence=repeatable edge above other participants=profit/success

I have coaches in multi million dollar industries who will make you a rich man to implement such knowledge. Are you willing to back up such extraordinary claims with "evidence in the literature" that actually resulted in causation of success rather than some theoretical or short term lab based results?? Again if you can implement it we are both very rich men by the end of the year,


Oh wait.... 







Gringotts Bank said:


> I trade a system.  Reason for this is I lose my confidence.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL
> 
> I'm open to learn better ways. My understanding over a few different competitive performance fields has always been,
> 
> Skill=repeatable edge above other participants=profit/success=confidence.
> 
> If you can find evidence it starts the other way,
> 
> confidence=repeatable edge above other participants=profit/success
> 
> I have coaches in multi million dollar industries who will make you a rich man to implement such knowledge. Are you willing to back up such extraordinary claims with "evidence in the literature" that actually resulted in causation of success rather than some theoretical or short term lab based results?? Again if you can implement it we are both very rich men by the end of the year,
> 
> 
> Oh wait....




I went through a process of devising a proper scientific trial to test it a few years ago.  What would my cut be (if it worked, that is)?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gringotts Bank said:


> I went through a process of devising a proper scientific trial to test it a few years ago.




So you actually just have an untested hypothesis? One that is counter to current accepted theory!!



Gringotts Bank said:


> What would my cut be (if it worked, that is)?




Again if you hold the key to success name your price.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Trembling Hand said:


> So you actually just have an untested hypothesis? One that is counter to current accepted theory!!
> 
> 
> 
> Again if you hold the key to success name your price.




I'm assuming you're serious, so let me think about it for a while.  The more I consider it, the more I realize the enormous amount of work required to even set it up.  Participants would have to be decieved to some degree and there's ethical considerations there.  There's lots of ways it could be done, and I'm thinking up news ways even now.  Could be costly to run.  So many considerations.

[edit] I'm starting to remember all the reasons why I gave up on it.  But since you know the right people, I'll certainly give it some more thought over the next few weeks.


----------



## fiftyeight

Remember that time GB was on another forum ...... the good ol' days


----------



## CanOz

Today's ECB day, so a slow start to the day. I haven't had a thorough look yet, but a cursory glance makes me think we could have a significant low in, So accordingly we'll need to start looking for some good rallies. The strength of these rallies though will give us some information on how sustainable it could be...


----------



## CanOz

The low in the US seems more convincing than the low in the US. However we'll see today as the EU session was likely nearly done when the late rally in the US occurred. The VX has also hit some resistance. I'm not convinced that the decline is finished yet, but we should get a decent rally...


----------



## CanOz

Asia has turned negative again in the arvo, spicy lunch?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

I never liked the "When the US sneezes..." scenario.  Up until last decade, everything American was coveted like crazy.  

Then there was the Australian obsession with everything European - coffee, cycling, Gagennau appliances, Tuscan this, Tuscan that, etc etc.

Now we have a daily apprehension of "what's happening in China???".  

Will Australian media ever value the true worth of its own population and culture?  Aussie news sources are like pop-star obsessed teenagers.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> I never liked the "When the US sneezes..." scenario.  Up until last decade, everything American was coveted like crazy.
> 
> Then there was the Australian obsession with everything European - coffee, cycling, Gagennau appliances, Tuscan this, Tuscan that, etc etc.
> 
> Now we have a daily apprehension of "what's happening in China???".
> 
> Will Australian media ever value the true worth of its own population and culture?  Aussie news sources are like pop-star obsessed teenagers.




Well thats one thing about the markets, its all one global game now. Its just a 'global handshake' really, Asia hands off to Europe hands off to the US hands off to Asia...The good thing about the US and some Asian markets is they trade 24 hours a day pretty much, with enough liquidity to gt in and out if you had to, to hedge. 

This time around China is having a bigger effect on the global markets, much bigger than any other correction that I've witnessed since 2007-08. 

With China, its good that we have Hong-Kong to kind of balance out the sentiment, as well as Japan. Sometime when the "national team" has intervened on the mainland, the HK markets are still relatively down...

Looks like Europe will gap down again on the open....


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> With China, its good that we have Hong-Kong to kind of balance out the sentiment




Yes it's like a bridge between East and West, which grants it quite a unique position/role in world markets.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yes it's like a bridge between East and West, which grants it quite a unique position/role in world markets.




Good analogy, i think the bridge has some cracks now though...

Today i'm dead in the water, unable to trade due to connectivity issues. I was trading the few minutes after the open on my sim account and my NT locked up a half dozen times whilst in a position. Also, the depth seems thin and the fills look like they'd be slippy...so not very happy and have to settle for some practice...


----------



## CanOz

FWIW, my take on the market structure on the main European indices and the ES. I am expecting some support at the lower section of the value area, represented by the green levels. This would set a bracket or balance/value area low. If these levels find buyers then we should see a push to test the highs of the bracket, represented by the red levels....

If we were to take out the green levels without a test higher, that would be very bearish indicating that the markets have totally rejected seeing any kind of value higher for the time being. I would expect the market to auction lower in search of value. 

However, i am mostly biased towards this bounce continuing after a probe lower to pick up those who missed out...

As long as we auction in these balance/value areas, represented by the triangles, then we should have somewhat less volitility...

2925 to 2935 on the FESX looks like an area where we could see some responsive buyers step in...


----------



## CanOz

ho hum, another day another gap down, bonds up, yen and euro up, oil, indices down...either rotate around or crap itself, no news today, its all up to the market structure...


----------



## CanOz

Not sure if CL is leading the indices? Check out this low tech visual from the cash open yesty:

This is CL/ES/FESX/FDAX 1 minute line on close. I plotted a coral filter indicator over them all at 10 period. Its just a moving average that turns color depending on the slope. CL changes, they follow.


----------



## Modest

What CL levels are you watching this session CanOz?


----------



## CanOz

Modest said:


> What CL levels are you watching this session CanOz?




No particular levels, but its just over the VWAP at 30.68, which is more bullish than under it....


----------



## CanOz

Well things have started well today, recieved my resident return visa, even though i only sent in the application in FridayI'm coming home.

As well i on the Rancho Acme NT8 Beta trial, so i can start using the volume profile tools on NT8 now, so quite excited about that as it should be more resource friendly to me.

And.....we have a major decision point on the indices at hand, double


----------



## CanOz

The new Rancho profiles on NT8 work really well, charts load much faster as well. So far no errors either. Can't seem to get more than 6-8 months of data loaded though....


----------



## CanOz

There's something very uneasy about the order flow today, looks like a market thats not very confident of its direction

Edit: amazing the difference a level or two makes...


----------



## CanOz

Well that's it for this week, my second best week to date. I netted 68 points on 15 round trips. 54 % winners, profit factor of 2.14 and an average trade of 55.84. I had 4 winnings days in a row, which was a breakthrough for me. This week i paid 142.00 in commissions compared to 1380.00 last week on 144 round trips. 

Because i traded so much last week i was able to go through all the trades and find out again, what was working and what wasn't and then incorporate it into this weeks plan. So I'm happy with that. I'd post last weeks stats but I've got two weird anomalies in the NT stats, entries of 5700 and 5600.00. So i've got to go through the trades on excel and recalculate all the stats....a real pain

Also, I've not taken any momentum plays as the follow through just hasn't been there. So these are all trades at levels in the bias of the combined markets, a new approach.

I wish it was a new equity high, but last week i over-traded and commissions killed me. So I'm 12 points under where i ended last week. 

Next week will likely be my last week before we move. I'll be packing up my screens and desktop PC.


----------



## VSntchr

CanOz said:


> Well that's it for this week, my second best week to date. I netted 68 points on 15 round trips. 54 % winners, profit factor of 2.14 and an average trade of 55.84. I had 4 winnings days in a row, which was a breakthrough for me. This week i paid 142.00 in commissions compared to 1380.00 last week on 144 round trips.



Nice work Can. 
I might not comment alot in here, but I regularly read. Definitely enjoying seeing you kicking some goals 



CanOz said:


> Next week will likely be my last week before we move. I'll be packing up my screens and desktop PC.



Are you planning to trade the same markets after you move back?


----------



## CanOz

VSntchr said:


> Nice work Can.
> I might not comment alot in here, but I regularly read. Definitely enjoying seeing you kicking some goals
> 
> 
> Are you planning to trade the same markets after you move back?




Thanks mate, it's been a rough road for the last four years...

Yeah, I've got to stick with the Dax I think....too much water under that bridge now.


----------



## CanOz

An interesting start to the week with the Japanese market leading most Asian indices higher out of the gate this morning....with the exception of China, which again is weak, on continually contracting PMI ...although slightly better than estimated.



> 9:45*(CN) CHINA JAN CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 48.4 V 48.1E (11th month of contraction) - Source TradeTheNews.com




So it will be interesting to see if the European indices can remain bullish for a few days until we hit the current bracket highs again...

Expecting a slow start to the week with little data out, so I'll watch the market today but I'm not expecting fireworks...we could see a grind higher though, maybe with a slight rotational bend about....

Specifically for the Dax, I'm expecting us to test the higher area of the bracket around the 10000 mark again, perhaps this week however we could expect some renewed selling at 10200 or so as well. 

So moderately bullish still, but cautious ahead of NFP.


----------



## CanOz

Well we haven't seen the Dax coiled up and range bound like things for a while, expecting a big move soon...


----------



## CanOz

Well today disaster finally struck with my klunky ole Ninjatrader and this crappy connectivity ....just a whisker off equity highs yesterday, i was long a couple just after the open today, the market started to pull back as i went to put my stop in, NT locked up solid....not sure if it was the connection that did it, or what. I had done an NT update today. The worst past was i had no choice but to do another win10 update whist restarting...By the time i got it back and connected the Dax had dropped 50 points...:frown:

It happened so fast and shocked me so much i couldn't get a hedge on....


----------



## CanOz

Well I've managed to claw some losses back, I'll recover from this. It still burns me that i allowed this to happen. When my IG platform, as well as TT's new platform would not stay connected i should have realized that it was not a good day to trade. 

I've decided to pack up my gear a few days early. Take the rest of the time off from trading until i get to Brisbane and get setup. My wife tells me that there are more and more people on the internet as they're already on holidays for the big annual holiday, i recall the same thing last year, now that i think about it. 

All in all i think i gave it the best go i could here, each day i had two hours to try and make a living with a unknown level of connectivity. I had a few hours each day to prepare, little to wrap up. I've missed countless post lunch rallies through this recent volatility. I've become better at sensing them, but i still need more experience trading them....

Once settled in Australia I'll be giving this a minimum of 8 hours a day, in total peace and quiet with the best connectivity money can buy. 

I'm not sure if I'll be trading the Dax though, i may have to look at the SPI, the HSI, HHI etc. Its difficult to trade afternoon/evening with a 2 year old...

In the meantime, i think i still have enough of a track record to submit to someone that's interested....I just wish i could have put the icing on the cake....


----------



## darkhorse70

Good effort man.


----------



## VSntchr

CanOz said:


> I've decided to pack up my gear a few days early. Take the rest of the time off from trading until i get to Brisbane and get setup. My wife tells me that there are more and more people on the internet as they're already on holidays for the big annual holiday, i recall the same thing last year, now that i think about it.



I didn't realise that the internet was so bad in China? What's the deal there? Old Infrastructure? Overburdened with population?



CanOz said:


> Once settled in Australia I'll be giving this a minimum of 8 hours a day, in total peace and quiet with the best connectivity money can buy.



I run Optus Cable with a powerline adapter that goes straight into the computer. Previously I connected to the modem via wifi and ran into speed/reliability issues on a consistent basis...so I know the feeling of losing connection while trading. I remember the first day I got the current setup working, I kept running speedtests just to let it sink in that I was getting ~14x faster speed  I don't think I have had one drop-out in the last 9 months. 



CanOz said:


> I'm not sure if I'll be trading the Dax though, i may have to look at the SPI, the HSI, HHI etc. Its difficult to trade afternoon/evening with a 2 year old...
> In the meantime, i think i still have enough of a track record to submit to someone that's interested....I just wish i could have put the icing on the cake....



I'm sure once you get a better routine for trading that your stats will improve markedly 
Will be great to have another Asian session trader on the boards.


----------



## CanOz

> Good effort man.




Thanks mate.



> What's the deal there? Old Infrastructure? Overburdened with population?




Filtered, the GFW...Great Fire Wall...will try and post two tests. One test to the local server, an ISP. Another to Singapore, where my AMP/CQG server is....Its actually not bad this morning, but its gets much worse as the day moves on...one would assume its users. Nightime is the worse,that's when the gamers get on. The local server is unfiltered, whilst to get to Singtel, the slower one has to go through the wall.



> I run Optus Cable with a powerline adapter that goes straight into the computer. Previously I connected to the modem via wifi and ran into speed/reliability issues on a consistent basis...so I know the feeling of losing connection while trading. I remember the first day I got the current setup working, I kept running speedtests just to let it sink in that I was getting ~14x faster speed I don't think I have had one drop-out in the last 9 months.




What is a powerline adapter? Can you give me an idea of that Optus plan? Speeds, DL limit, NBN, ADSL? Whats in the package, cost? Thanks allot VS, i owe you a drink when i get to Brissy


----------



## VSntchr

CanOz said:


> Thanks mate.
> What is a powerline adapter? Can you give me an idea of that Optus plan? Speeds, DL limit, NBN, ADSL? Whats in the package, cost? Thanks allot VS, i owe you a drink when i get to Brissy






Judging by your speedtests, the download speed is probably similar - as for ping it looks good here but going to Singapore may not be too crash hot as the distance is farther than from China. I'm not sure how to check what the ping would be from here to the DAX, or HSI server etc.. but if you show me how I can check for you.

A powerline adapter kit is a set of 2 plugs and 2 ethernet cables. Essentially it enables you to access ethernet access anywhere within your house wherever you have a power socket. It works by transforming your houses internal power cables into internet transmitting cables (my tech language is pretty poor, clearly).
First device plugs into the wall where your modem is and connects via ethernet to the modem, the second (identical) device is plugged into wherever you want to access the internet - and then connected to your PC via ethernet. It is super useful if your modem is not located where your PC is, however if both are in the same room it is largely redundant. 

As for Optus Cable. We pay $90 a month which gets us unlimited DL and calls etc. Would be cheaper if we locked into a contract but as we rent we are on month-month.

Also, it really depends on where you choose to live - as some areas of Brisbane already have NBN access, which may also be a good decision. I think Telstra does 500GB NBN for $95 a month - so some of the lower cost guys would come in a bit less than that.


----------



## CanOz

> Judging by your speedtests, the download speed is probably similar - but the ping is much better. I'm not sure how to check what the ping would be from here to the DAX, or HSI server etc.. but if you show me how I can check for you.




The big issue i have is when i do my ping test, i lose packets, the data gets lost somewhere. I think TH had a list of IP addresses for CQG servers, i've lost mine. I never tested Singapore, only Chicago. The packet loss means that it will not complete the test at all:bad:





> A powerline adapter kit is a set of 2 plugs and 2 ethernet cables. Essentially it enables you to access ethernet access anywhere within your house wherever you have a power socket. It works by transforming your houses internal power cables into internet transmitting cables (my tech language is pretty poor, clearly).
> First device plugs into the wall where your modem is and connects via ethernet to the modem, the second (identical) device is plugged into wherever you want to access the internet - and then connected to your PC via ethernet. It is super useful if your modem is not located where your PC is, however if both are in the same room it is largely redundant.




I had this in Harbin, i know exactly what you mean. I might use it for the house wifi....



> As for Optus Cable. We pay $90 a month which gets us unlimited DL and calls etc. Would be cheaper if we locked into a contract but as we rent we are on month-month.
> 
> Also, it really depends on where you choose to live - as some areas of Brisbane already have NBN access, which may also be a good decision. I think Telstra does 500GB NBN for $95 a month - so some of the lower cost guys would come in a bit less than that.




Actually i'm looking at renting a serviced office near my home in Morningside, so I'll be hooked into the net there, with a hard line. At home, I'll look into the options again for that street. I'm really interested in working away from home, actually going to work and coming back when I'm done etc...We plan on building a house eventually, then renting out the THouse...at that point i'll be able to design an office....next to the wine cellar


----------



## Trembling Hand

VSntchr said:


> View attachment 65755
> 
> Judging by your speedtests, the download speed is probably similar - as for ping it looks good here but going to Singapore may not be too crash hot as the distance is farther than from China. I'm not sure how to check what the ping would be from here to the DAX, or HSI server etc.. but if you show me how I can check for you.




The download speeds are largely irrelevant to your local host server. What effects trading performance the most is ping times or latency. In Oz on CQG data they have their servers located in Sydney (as do all others IB, TT etc) and that will be where you need to test to.  

Best way is to find the IP address of the data and order servers and ping them to see performance. Here is CQGs,
http://www.cqg.com/Docs/CQGNETTechSpec.pdf

here is what I am getting to the Sydney servers first test and to London second test.




And this is the speed of my connection,



Still the biggest problem in Oz is you are close to 1 full second behind those located in the same country!


----------



## CanOz

Here are two tests, the second was actually worked...the total loss is what usually happens..both are Singapore


----------



## CanOz

VS, can you do a ping test to the Sydney CQG server from Brissy for me


----------



## darkhorse70

haha "the gamers" . Too much WOW benders


----------



## CanOz

darkhorse70 said:


> haha "the gamers" . Too much WOW benders




The US has its Netflix to suck out the bandwidth, China has a millions of online gamers to suck out the bandwidth, every night from about 8 pm


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> The US has its Netflix to suck out the bandwidth




Same thing in Oz, internet services suffered huge slowdowns when Netflix was introduced last year. Our local exchange ground to a halt between 3:30pm (kids knock off from school) and 11pm before Telstra upgraded it a few months later.


----------



## CanOz

captain black said:


> Same thing in Oz, internet services suffered huge slowdowns when Netflix was introduced last year. Our local exchange ground to a halt between 3:30pm (kids knock off from school) and 11pm before Telstra upgraded it a few months later.




Did you notice any issues in execution or data receiving?


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> Did you notice any issues in execution or data receiving?




Yeh, there were issues with more frequent dropouts (IB's TWS disconnecting more often) and ping times were a lot higher. I trade during the day so most of the time it wasn't an issue but after about 3:30 the net was almost unusable for a couple of months. I switched to the NextG network in the evenings to trade the European session. Ping times on NextG were better that time of the day than the ADSL connection. Not ideal, but it was around the time I made the switch to the FESX from the DAX so higher pings weren't as much of an issue given how much thicker the book is on the FESX.

The popularity of Netflix caught ISP's by surprise, they all had issues. Most of them had them sorted out after a couple of months. I live in a small country town with an exchange that was already close to over-capacity, Netflix brought it to a grinding halt. 

We had planned to move to Tassie a few years ago, partly because of the early FTTH NBN rollout in a lot of the towns. We had/have family health issues which are keeping us here so sadly were stuck with ADSL and copper for the foreseeable future.:bad:


----------



## VSntchr

CanOz said:


> VS, can you do a ping test to the Sydney CQG server from Brissy for me






So now thanks to TH and yourself, I know how to test ping using CMD. Now just teach me how to trade the Dax and that should be enough for the week I'd say!


----------



## CanOz

VSntchr said:


> View attachment 65773
> 
> 
> So now thanks to TH and yourself, I know how to test ping using CMD. Now just teach me how to trade the Dax and that should be enough for the week I'd say!





Thanks for that, not too bad at all. 

Re the Dax, i thought you'd be interested in the spreads, not the outrights


----------



## CanOz

Well,happy to say that we are in our place in Brisbane for our first night....tonight. Been here since Wednesday morning running around for stuff to get settled. Love the weather!


----------



## Modest

Good to hear CanOz! 

Treat yourself to NBN!


----------



## CanOz

Connected....now to put everything together


----------



## CanOz

Really happy with the connectivity here, my charts load faster than ever before....lots of work to do yet, will pick up a couple more 22s this weekend as well.


----------



## CanOz

Well I'm debugging this week. Working on fixing up my NT issue, which has become worse since I've been running NT here in Brissy. It seems it is indeed the connection quality, according to support. I've requested AMP to change my data servers to Sydney, so Monday i should see an improvement in TT and NT. At the moment i cannot even load TT, the connection to Chicago is worse than China through the VPN.


----------



## Modest

Very envious of your setup CanOz looking awesome. Hopefully you fix that data issue. 

Do you know the IP address of the server/s you're connecting to? There are tools you can use to trace the route from your PC to server to find bottle necks or ****ty links.

Btw are all those monitors connected to one PC if so what gfx card are you running?


----------



## CanOz

Yeah I ran some tests today and my pings to Sydney are fine, we'll within a practical range.

I'll trouble shoot some more on Monday, hopefully with Sydney servers.

The last problem I had today was only getting level II data into my HKFE indices....no prints, only depth

Yeah I've got six screens on my tower and one on my laptop....I'll see on that goes but I can get a vertical stand for $60 that might be handy for news....

I've got two graphics cards, one is specifically for financial applications, supporting 4 screens, the other one is just a cheap $100 card with dvi and vga ports...

I'll find the specs of the 4 screen card but apparently it was easier to obtain in China than elsewhere and they could not find me another one.....


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Yeah I ran some tests today and my pings to Sydney are fine, we'll within a practical range.
> 
> I'll trouble shoot some more on Monday, hopefully with Sydney servers.
> 
> The last problem I had today was only getting level II data into my HKFE indices....no prints, only depth
> 
> Yeah I've got six screens on my tower and one on my laptop....I'll see on that goes but I can get a vertical stand for $60 that might be handy for news....
> 
> I've got two graphics cards, one is specifically for financial applications, supporting 4 screens, the other one is just a cheap $100 card with dvi and vga ports...
> 
> I'll find the specs of the 4 screen card but apparently it was easier to obtain in China than elsewhere and they could not find me another one.....




Nice set up. Wouldn't the 6 screens quite easily topple over? I can see it happening on a missed trade when you hit the desk in disgust. 

Also.... is that a fire extinguisher?  Workplace health and safety?  Did you buy those monitors in China and they come with a free fire extinguisher in case they blow up?


----------



## Modest

CanOz said:


> Yeah I ran some tests today and my pings to Sydney are fine, we'll within a practical range.




Just ping? You should do a tracert/packet test to see where the packets are being lost on the way to the server... You can have high packet loss and a low ping


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Nice set up. Wouldn't the 6 screens quite easily topple over? I can see it happening on a missed trade when you hit the desk in disgust.
> 
> Also.... is that a fire extinguisher?  Workplace health and safety?  Did you buy those monitors in China and they come with a free fire extinguisher in case they blow up?




LOL....no the stand is really solid and the heavy screen is on the bottom. It's very sturdy, I used the same setup for three years. The office is rented, not sure why they has a fire extinguisher there, but I doubt it's been checked and charged anyway....the screens are 4 Dell bought in China and two acers bought here...for 90 bucks


----------



## CanOz

Modest said:


> Just ping? You should do a tracert/packet test to see where the packets are being lost on the way to the server... You can have high packet loss and a low ping




Yeah, the packet stats come with the ping test, in China I lost most of the packets in the test. Here I get all the packets.


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> The office is rented




Awesome  interested to see your feeling on this vs the home office


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> LOL....no the stand is really solid and the heavy screen is on the bottom. It's very sturdy, I used the same setup for three years. The office is rented, not sure why they has a fire extinguisher there, but I doubt it's been checked and charged anyway....the screens are 4 Dell bought in China and two acers bought here...for 90 bucks




Where's your rented office? A private room (looks it) or co-working desk?

There are some pretty nice co-working desks out there but I still can't bear the thought of having to commute everyday!

https://www.office-hub.com.au/au/brisbane/?gclid=CJyi_b2D9csCFYWVvAodJ5MJ4A


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Where's your rented office? A private room (looks it) or co-working desk?
> 
> There are some pretty nice co-working desks out there but I still can't bear the thought of having to commute everyday!
> 
> https://www.office-hub.com.au/au/brisbane/?gclid=CJyi_b2D9csCFYWVvAodJ5MJ4A




The office is located here in Morningside, about a 5 minute walk from the house. It's private. Also looked at shared spaces, none were close enough. Found the space on Gumtree.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> The office is located here in Morningside, about a 5 minute walk from the house. It's private. Also looked at shared spaces, none were close enough. Found the space on Gumtree.




Didn't you just start a new job yesterday?


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Didn't you just start a new job yesterday?




Yeah, my new job is trading the spi, starting with trying to figure out how to trade the spi


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> Yeah, my new job is trading the spi, starting with trying to figure out how to trade the spi




I can't tell if you're serious or not. 

How do you pay office space rental if not yet profitable?  Or you *are *already profitable with DAX etc, but just not with SPI?


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> I can't tell if you're serious or not.
> 
> How do you pay office space rental if not yet profitable?  Or you *are *already profitable with DAX etc, but just not with SPI?




Yes, i am serious. I've rented an office. I was profitable on the DAX. I only traded a few hours a day and i was distracted most of the time...the office is a good decision.


----------



## ggkfc

wow interesting!
hope you keep us updated on how it goes


----------



## Gringotts Bank

9666.1

Watch it touch this level and retreat!


----------



## cynic

Gringotts Bank said:


> 9666.1
> 
> Watch it touch this level and retreat!




So, is it that you have a stop order set at that level, or is it the number of the beast?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

cynic said:


> So, is it that you have a stop order set at that level, or is it the number of the beast?




Neither   Just a new target set up I've been playing with on the 30 min chart.  

I'd like to trade DAX later this year if I can work out how to do it.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Gringotts Bank said:


> Neither   Just a new target set up I've been playing with on the 30 min chart.
> 
> I'd like to trade DAX later this year if I can work out how to do it.




How's that?!  Should have got me some shorts on.


----------



## Market Sniper

afternoon

curious on dax traders thoughts on trading the hour pre-cash open?

I usually wait for the cash open before considering a trade but have in the past traded pre-cash IF a A1 setup develops. I really don't like how thin and jumpy it can be but on occasion it can really yield some good profits. If I get stopped out couple of times I start kicking myself for not waiting till the cash!!

What are others thoughts,approach to it?

MS


----------



## cynic

Market Sniper said:


> afternoon
> 
> curious on dax traders thoughts on trading the hour pre-cash open?
> 
> I usually wait for the cash open before considering a trade but have in the past traded pre-cash IF a A1 setup develops. I really don't like how thin and jumpy it can be but on occasion it can really yield some good profits. If I get stopped out couple of times I start kicking myself for not waiting till the cash!!
> 
> What are others thoughts,approach to it?
> 
> MS




I've sometimes missed a few good trades by waiting until the cash open,  other times I dodged a few bullets. Overall I didn't perceive the additional  risk to be sufficiently rewarding.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Market Sniper said:


> afternoon
> 
> curious on dax traders thoughts on trading the hour pre-cash open?
> 
> I usually wait for the cash open before considering a trade but have in the past traded pre-cash IF a A1 setup develops. I really don't like how thin and jumpy it can be but on occasion it can really yield some good profits. If I get stopped out couple of times I start kicking myself for not waiting till the cash!!
> 
> What are others thoughts,approach to it?
> 
> MS




Have traded it plenty of times, don't see it as any different, it's just quieter and less active, but obviously there are times when someone is pushing it around and can be some great obvious trades to be taken, it's still the same market, just moving slower with less participants, that being said I tend to NOT be in any positions right when the cash opens though as those first couple minutes can be whipsawsville.


----------



## CanOz

Market Sniper said:


> afternoon
> 
> curious on dax traders thoughts on trading the hour pre-cash open?
> 
> I usually wait for the cash open before considering a trade but have in the past traded pre-cash IF a A1 setup develops. I really don't like how thin and jumpy it can be but on occasion it can really yield some good profits. If I get stopped out couple of times I start kicking myself for not waiting till the cash!!
> 
> What are others thoughts,approach to it?
> 
> MS




This was always a bit of a dilemma for me as well. If the market was bid or offered heavy then you wanted to join...if it was was balanced and chopping around then you wanted to wait for the extra liquidity of the cash. In the end i decided to stay out until i had a specific reason or play to get involved. Otherwise the liquidity could not be reliable.


----------



## Joules MM1

this "may" be of some help.....

Fari Hamzei ‏@HamzeiAnalytics 24m24 minutes ago

Introducing *TWO WEEKS FREE TRIAL* to EURO INDICES on HFT OTF Prop Streamer

Read: http://tl.gd/n_1sol1kr

------------------------------------------------

Hamzei Analytics Retweeted
RWH ‏@rwhfpp 3h3 hours ago

Congratulations to @HamzeiAnalytics 

The Top 100 Financial People To Follow On Twitter
http://benzinga.com/z/7923518  via @benzinga $

--------------------------------------------------
according to timerdigest.com, about the $SPX




---------------------------------------------------

no, not a subscriber, no don't shoot me i'm just a messenger, mkay!


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Just starting to look at futures, DAX in particluar.  New to me.

What sort of commission is usual for one contract?  If one wanted to control say $1million of value (I won't be), how do I work out how many contracts that represents?  Thanks in advance.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Just starting to look at futures, DAX in particluar.  New to me.
> 
> What sort of commission is usual for one contract?  If one wanted to control say $1million of value (I won't be), how do I work out how many contracts that represents?  Thanks in advance.




1 point = 25 EUR

current price = 10200 

10200 * 25 = 255,000 EUR

$1,000,000 = 860,000 EUR

860,000 / 255,000 = 3.37 contracts


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> 1 point = 25 EUR
> 
> current price = 10200
> 
> 10200 * 25 = 255,000 EUR
> 
> $1,000,000 = 860,000 EUR
> 
> 860,000 / 255,000 = 3.37 contracts




Awesome, thanks for that.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

I've written a system which looks ok on backtest.  But it's for the 5 min timeframe and takes very small profits (around 2-4 points on 3 contracts).  So now I'm wondering what % of the day/night would the spread actually be 0.5?  And when it's not 0.5, what sort of distribution of spreads exist?  Obviously getting filled is essential, and that's hard to estimate.  Not quite sure how to proceed...


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> I've written a system which looks ok on backtest.  But it's for the 5 min timeframe and takes very small profits (around 2-4 points on 3 contracts).  So now I'm wondering what % of the day/night would the spread actually be 0.5?  And when it's not 0.5, what sort of distribution of spreads exist?  Obviously getting filled is essential, and that's hard to estimate.  Not quite sure how to proceed...




Can you fill on limits?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> Can you fill on limits?




Hi Can, yes it appears so.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Gringotts Bank said:


> Hi Can, yes it appears so.




maybe not after all.  Disappointing.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> maybe not after all.  Disappointing.




There is more liquidity on the FESX, can you apply the same 'logic' to that market?


----------



## CanOz

This is an open range breakout strategy with a twist. It uses a couple of different times frames for volatility filtering. I want to add a 'regime' filter as well, or basically a third time frame.


----------



## CanOz

Here's the same thing using a trailing stop that kicks in at 2R.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> Here's the same thing using a trailing stop that kicks in at 2R.




I've been looking at some of Jeff Swanson's strategies, including his version of ORB.  I'd like to find something scalable.

Re:FESX, better liquidity is good but the system broke down when I tweaked the exit rules to allow limit orders.  The entry was fine.


----------



## CanOz

Here are some possible scenarios for the DAX today....


----------



## kid hustlr

Can - got to be thinking mean reversion type day given the upcoming events over the next several days?

Anyone else feeling a little nervy looking at the S&P index over the past week or 2?


----------



## cynic

My thoughts these days are pretty much along the lines that it might go up or it might go down.

Similar to your own in some ways, but without the channel.

Doncha luv the profundity of the markets these days?


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, trading in balance with no news is choppy stuff....

Cynic, with my discretionary trading i try not to get married to a bias, so always have a few hypothetical scenarios


----------



## CanOz

Some poor souls got trapped right off the open.....


----------



## Modest

10402 looks like interim support for a push into 10445


----------



## captain black

Modest said:


> 10402 looks like interim support for a push into 10445




Nice accumulation pattern between 10391 - 10398. It's a bit messy so would look to go long at the bottom of the range with a tight stop. 

Took a long on the FESX showing a similar pattern.


----------



## CanOz

captain black said:


> Nice accumulation pattern between 10391 - 10398. It's a bit messy so would look to go long at the bottom of the range with a tight stop.
> 
> Took a long on the FESX showing a similar pattern.




Current vpoc is 396


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> Current vpoc is 396




Cool 

These areas where different forms of analysis converge are where all my testing is at the moment. Have been working on different forms of S&R in Amibroker after following Modest's FESX thread. Looks like I'll have to add VPOC to the list as well  

Hope everyone got on board the long in that accumulation zone, looking nice now


----------



## Modest

Looks like it is runnin out of steam, next down side target 10365

FESX 2945ish


----------



## captain black

Modest said:


> Looks like it is runnin out of steam




Still long here (FESX). Looks like it's taking a pause but nothing screaming to flip to a short yet.


----------



## captain black

Off-topic a bit but there's a thread for someone looking to make $100 a day from trading? A single contract on the FESX taken at the consolidation at 2951 is up approx. 70 Euros (approx. $100) now. Just some food for thought. (apologies for the OT post CanOz)


----------



## captain black

Pushed up through the high of the day, building into a nice trade out of the accumulation zone


----------



## Modest

captain black said:


> Pushed up through the high of the day, building into a nice trade out of the accumulation zone




Nice hold captain!


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, looks like we broke of the channel and could be challenging the upper edge of the value area on the composite if we can take out the low of the gap that we just filled on that stop run...retest in progress


----------



## captain black

Modest said:


> Nice hold captain!




Thanks 

That high volume push up was the reversal sign I've been waiting for so closed the trade (2965 FESX +14 ticks). Time for me to call it a night :sleeping:


----------



## CanOz

Half an hour away from pre-cash open and the markets have reacted to the BOJ. The NKD, the dollar denominated contract for the Nikkei is up 300 odd points. The Yen (6J) has dropped after an initial spike higher. CL has just recently spiked .15 higher and GC has been swinging around like a monkey.... The ES put on 6 handles before losing half that again. I think a mixed open and a wait for the Fed now....

On the DAX we filled the gap from last week and then came back into the range value area, we're sitting at the higher side of value on the composite. We now have a small short term channel to watch for stops....10372 a the most obvious trade level for a short. Above 10458 we should be buyers.

The BOJ press conference is scheduled for 4:30, this may cause more volatility....

I don't see any other key data for Europe on my calendar.


----------



## CanOz

The only time i'll take trades pre-cash are open drives, this was one of those....



> Above 10458 we should be buyers.


----------



## CanOz

The thing about volume profile and auction market theory that is undisputed...price must return to value or value will come to price. Today was a great example of the former. There is no better technical representation of data that displays context so clearly.

I believe we can now expect the markets to explore value higher in the forms of a channel....I'm my experience, it is when price returns to value after breaking out of channels that the trends are the strongest.


----------



## captain black

CanOz, can you recommend any further reading/studies/links etc. on Volume Profile? I've found some Amibroker code but would be interested in some further reading. Any recommendations?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> The thing about volume profile and auction market theory that is undisputed...price must return to value or value will come to price. Today was a great example of the former. There is no better technical representation of data that displays context so clearly.
> 
> I believe we can now expect the markets to explore value higher in the forms of a channel....I'm my experience, it is when price returns to value after breaking out of channels that the trends are the strongest.




Hi Can, am I correct in thinking that the market profile spikes are where you're saying value lies?


----------



## CanOz

captain black said:


> CanOz, can you recommend any further reading/studies/links etc. on Volume Profile? I've found some Amibroker code but would be interested in some further reading. Any recommendations?




Markets in Profile by Jim Dalton is the current 'bible' on the subject. He doesn't use volume profiles and prefers to use the price and time profile, the original market profile. Still, he gives some really good explanation of the theory behind the market auction process. I like volume profiles for the granularity they provide. It literally IS the structure of the underlying market. The great thing about using volume profile and auction market theory is it had great confluence with any volume based tools, be that VSA/Wyckoff, VWAPs, or price action alone. 

I use the EOD charts with Amibroker and Premium data and the volume at price indicator for longer term analysis and context, very handy. I wish you (and others) would take up volume profile studies as it would be great to bounce ideas off others. 

Thanks for reply on limits on Modest's thread too btw. I'm pretty good at trading trend days on the DAX, i don't get much of the move, but i can usually get a few good nibbles. I'd like to transition a bit to the FESX for balanced days when the markets are reverting back to the POC rather than trending all day. I recall a conversation I had with TH the day i met him in person, he said he didn't do as well trading trend days. I think that's because he's more of a mean reversion trader, really good at balance days....that's were i need to get to.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Hi Can, am I correct in thinking that the market profile spikes are where you're saying value lies?




Yeah, the term value is used for the bulky areas of the profile, including the highest volume node. The theory is that more trade occurs at agreed 'fair value' than at 'unfair value' areas, evidenced by the lack of volume there. An example of this is product on a supermarket shelf, it does steady trade at fair value but put it 'on sale' by marking it down and it goes quickly, until the inventory is gone.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> Yeah, the term value is used for the bulky areas of the profile, including the highest volume node. The theory is that more trade occurs at agreed 'fair value' than at 'unfair value' areas, evidenced by the lack of volume there. An example of this is product on a supermarket shelf, it does steady trade at fair value but put it 'on sale' by marking it down and it goes quickly, until the inventory is gone.




Thanks for that.  When an item gets marked down at the supermarket, that would be an example of price < fair value or price = fair value?  Does it depend on how quickly the product disappears... ie. volume?


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> The great thing about using volume profile and auction market theory is it had great confluence with any volume based tools, be that VSA/Wyckoff, VWAPs, or price action alone.




Yeah, I've noticed that with the stuff you've posted in Modest's thread and the confluence of different types of analysis is something of great interest to me at the moment. I'll check out Jim Dalton's book, thanks 



CanOz said:


> I recall a conversation I had with TH the day i met him in person, he said he didn't do as well trading trend days. I think that's because he's more of a mean reversion trader, really good at balance days....that's were i need to get to.




Yeah, I'm a bit the same, swing trading and reversing trades at pivot points makes sense to me and I often have bad days on the grinding trend days. Last night on the FESX was a little like that, in hindsight it would be much easier to just hold and let the trend do the work but more often than not futures markets are mean reverting and tend to swing. I'll pick up trades in accumulation/distribution areas but also pick up a lot fading high volume moves. When others are looking to enter a trade on a breakout I'll be looking to fade it. I spent a lot of time testing these setups and swing trading was the one thing that I could make work. Still sucks to get constantly stopped out on trending days. The SPI today is the same, I picked up a few good winners after the open but it's been a grind higher since then where I'm only treading water. 20 trades today, 10 losers/breakeven out of the last 15.


----------



## CanOz

A bit of action on the calendar today....

GB, yeah price is all of the sudden less than what was considered fair value. As an unfair low price, buyers snap up the bargain quickly. If value changes and for some reason the new lower price becomes the norm, then price will consolidate there (balance) and trade will become steady and persistent. Same goes for an unfair high, sellers jump on the get a good price, it becomes a sellers market.


----------



## CanOz

> The SPI today is the same, I picked up a few good winners after the open but it's been a grind higher since then where I'm only treading water. 20 trades today, 10 losers/breakeven out of the last 15.




The SPI has been a steam roller today...yet the Nikkei has pulled back as has the HSI. The ES is flat, CL has pulled back. It will be interesting to see IG's call for the DAX open. 

I'm thinking pull back to find support for a smaller bracket to develop. So i'll be looking at the profile for an area where thats logical to happen. If we gap higher today, we could fill the gap. Same if we see a gap lower. I'm expecting a rotational day for the most part. Maybe the news will shake things up a bit.


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> The SPI has been a steam roller today...yet the Nikkei has pulled back as has the HSI. The ES is flat, CL has pulled back.




Kospi has been wishy washy too, I'm in the red there today.

Thankfully my longer term ASX systems are all having a good day. Swings and Roundabouts


----------



## CanOz

Got smacked around pretty good tonight for 50 point loss. Ouch....chop fest...


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> Got smacked around pretty good tonight for 50 point loss. Ouch....chop fest...




Yeah, it's been one of those days, thankfully they don't happen too regularly.

Just out of curiosity, do you set yourself a maximum loss limit for the day? I don't set a hard limit but I do stop trading until I start seeing better price action. I stopped trading the Kospi after the first hour this morning. Sometimes you just know that things don't look right.


----------



## CanOz

captain black said:


> Yeah, it's been one of those days, thankfully they don't happen too regularly.
> 
> Just out of curiosity, do you set yourself a maximum loss limit for the day? I don't set a hard limit but I do stop trading until I start seeing better price action. I stopped trading the Kospi after the first hour this morning. Sometimes you just know that things don't look right.




2% of my account. But i try and stop trading a little before that so i still have enough to recover if the situation changes. I think it may be the US open tonight that is the catalyst. 

What about you Cap, a daily loss limit?


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> 2% of my account. But i try and stop trading a little before that so i still have enough to recover if the situation changes. I think it may be the US open tonight that is the catalyst.
> 
> What about you Cap, a daily loss limit?




I don't set a hard limit with my day trading. I'll stop trading if it doesn't look right, like I did on the Kospi today. I've built my mechanical share trading systems up to the stage they'd provide an income even without the day trading so perhaps I'd approach day trading risk a bit differently if I didn't have that backup plan.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Canoz, I think you have Ninja Trader.  Would you mind running this on DAX 5min data please?  I have a feeling it's taking a high % of tiny profits with a massive stop (ie. crap system), but not sure.

/*
NinjaTrader Strategy of Strategy 1.41

  Generated by StrategyQuant version 3.8.1
  Generated at Tue Oct 04 22:51:00 GMT 2016

  Tested on dax, M5, 13.01.2006 - 25.02.2008
  Spread: 0.5, Slippage: 0.0, Min distance of stop from price: 0.0
*/

#region Using declarations
using System;
using System.ComponentModel;
using System.Diagnostics;
using System.Drawing;
using System.Drawing.Drawing2D;
using System.Xml.Serialization;
using NinjaTrader.Cbi;
using NinjaTrader.Data;
using NinjaTrader.Indicator;
using NinjaTrader.Gui.Chart;
using NinjaTrader.Strategy;
#endregion

namespace NinjaTrader.Strategy
{
    /// <summary>
    /// Enter the description of your strategy here
    /// </summary>
    [Description("Enter the description of your strategy here")]
    public class Strategy141 : SQManagedStrategy
    {
        #region Variables
        // Wizard generated variables

        // User defined variables (add any user defined variables below)
        #endregion

        /// <summary>
        /// This method is used to configure the strategy and is called once before any strategy method is called.
        /// </summary>
        protected override void Initialize()
        {
            base.Initialize();

            ReplacePendingOrders = false;
            ExitOnClose = false;
            MinimumPTSL = 2724;
            MaximumPTSL = 2724795;
            PendingOrderValidOneBar = false;
            BarsRequired = 120;
            StrictStopPrices = true;
            LimitSignalsToRange = false;
            TimeRangeFrom = 0800;
            TimeRangeTo = 1600;


            MaxTradesPerDay = 0;  // 0 means unlimited
        }

        /// <summary>
        /// Called on each bar update event (incoming tick)
        /// </summary>
        protected override void OnBarUpdate()
        {
            // ------------------------------------------
            // STRATEGY MANAGEMENT
            // ------------------------------------------
            if(Bars.FirstBarOfSession) tradesPerDay = 0;

            // Stop/Limit order expiration handling
            // Long --------
            if(pendingEntryOrder != null && pendingEntryOrder.OrderAction == OrderAction.Buy) {
                // Expiration
                if(sqGetPendingOrderBars(pendingEntryOrder) >= 23) {
                    CancelOrder(pendingEntryOrder);
                }
            }
            // Short --------
            if(pendingEntryOrder != null && pendingEntryOrder.OrderAction == OrderAction.SellShort) {
                // Expiration
                if(sqGetPendingOrderBars(pendingEntryOrder) >= 23) {
                    CancelOrder(pendingEntryOrder);
                }
            }

            // ------------------------------------------
            // ENTRY RULES
            // ------------------------------------------
            tradeEntered = false;

            if(sqCheckTimeWithinRange()) {
                // Long --------
                if(maxTradesPerDay == 0 || tradesPerDay < maxTradesPerDay) {
                    bool LongEntryCondition = ((sqDayOfWeek(Time[0].DayOfWeek) != 4 ) && ((Minute < 11) && (sqATR(66, 0) < sqATR(69, 0))));
                    if(LongEntryCondition == true) {
                    double price = roundPrice(Open[14] + (0.6) * (sqBarRange(99-1)));
                        sqEnterLongStop(price);
                    }
                }

                // Short --------
                if(maxTradesPerDay == 0 || tradesPerDay < maxTradesPerDay) {
                    bool ShortEntryCondition = ((sqDayOfWeek(Time[0].DayOfWeek) != 4 ) && ((Minute < 11) && (sqATR(66, 0) > sqATR(69, 0))));
                    if(ShortEntryCondition == true) {
                    double price = roundPrice(Open[14] + (-0.6) * (sqBarRange(99-1)));
                        sqEnterShortStop(price);
                    }
                }
            }

        }

        override protected void sqDefineStopLoss(int direction) {
            stopLoss.type = CalculationMode.Ticks;

            if(direction == 1) {
                // long
                stopLoss.value = 0;
            } else {
                // short
                stopLoss.value = 0;
            }
        }

        override protected void sqDefineProfitTarget(int direction) {
            profitTarget.type = CalculationMode.Ticks;

            if(direction == 1) {
                // long
                profitTarget.value = _round((0.93 * sqATR(97, 0)) / TickSize, 0);
            } else {
                // short
                profitTarget.value = _round((0.93 * sqATR(97, 0)) / TickSize, 0);
            }
        }

        #region Properties
        #endregion		        
    }
}


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Don't worry, it's doing exactly that - lots of small nibbles.  Useless system.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> Canoz, I think you have Ninja Trader.  Would you mind running this on DAX 5min data please?  I have a feeling it's taking a high % of tiny profits with a massive stop (ie. crap system), but not sure.
> 
> /*
> NinjaTrader Strategy of Strategy 1.41
> 
> Generated by StrategyQuant version 3.8.1
> Generated at Tue Oct 04 22:51:00 GMT 2016
> 
> Tested on dax, M5, 13.01.2006 - 25.02.2008
> Spread: 0.5, Slippage: 0.0, Min distance of stop from price: 0.0
> */
> 
> #region Using declarations
> using System;
> using System.ComponentModel;
> using System.Diagnostics;
> using System.Drawing;
> using System.Drawing.Drawing2D;
> using System.Xml.Serialization;
> using NinjaTrader.Cbi;
> using NinjaTrader.Data;
> using NinjaTrader.Indicator;
> using NinjaTrader.Gui.Chart;
> using NinjaTrader.Strategy;
> #endregion
> 
> namespace NinjaTrader.Strategy
> {
> /// <summary>
> /// Enter the description of your strategy here
> /// </summary>
> [Description("Enter the description of your strategy here")]
> public class Strategy141 : SQManagedStrategy
> {
> #region Variables
> // Wizard generated variables
> 
> // User defined variables (add any user defined variables below)
> #endregion
> 
> /// <summary>
> /// This method is used to configure the strategy and is called once before any strategy method is called.
> /// </summary>
> protected override void Initialize()
> {
> base.Initialize();
> 
> ReplacePendingOrders = false;
> ExitOnClose = false;
> MinimumPTSL = 2724;
> MaximumPTSL = 2724795;
> PendingOrderValidOneBar = false;
> BarsRequired = 120;
> StrictStopPrices = true;
> LimitSignalsToRange = false;
> TimeRangeFrom = 0800;
> TimeRangeTo = 1600;
> 
> 
> MaxTradesPerDay = 0;  // 0 means unlimited
> }
> 
> /// <summary>
> /// Called on each bar update event (incoming tick)
> /// </summary>
> protected override void OnBarUpdate()
> {
> // ------------------------------------------
> // STRATEGY MANAGEMENT
> // ------------------------------------------
> if(Bars.FirstBarOfSession) tradesPerDay = 0;
> 
> // Stop/Limit order expiration handling
> // Long --------
> if(pendingEntryOrder != null && pendingEntryOrder.OrderAction == OrderAction.Buy) {
> // Expiration
> if(sqGetPendingOrderBars(pendingEntryOrder) >= 23) {
> CancelOrder(pendingEntryOrder);
> }
> }
> // Short --------
> if(pendingEntryOrder != null && pendingEntryOrder.OrderAction == OrderAction.SellShort) {
> // Expiration
> if(sqGetPendingOrderBars(pendingEntryOrder) >= 23) {
> CancelOrder(pendingEntryOrder);
> }
> }
> 
> // ------------------------------------------
> // ENTRY RULES
> // ------------------------------------------
> tradeEntered = false;
> 
> if(sqCheckTimeWithinRange()) {
> // Long --------
> if(maxTradesPerDay == 0 || tradesPerDay < maxTradesPerDay) {
> bool LongEntryCondition = ((sqDayOfWeek(Time[0].DayOfWeek) != 4 ) && ((Minute < 11) && (sqATR(66, 0) < sqATR(69, 0))));
> if(LongEntryCondition == true) {
> double price = roundPrice(Open[14] + (0.6) * (sqBarRange(99-1)));
> sqEnterLongStop(price);
> }
> }
> 
> // Short --------
> if(maxTradesPerDay == 0 || tradesPerDay < maxTradesPerDay) {
> bool ShortEntryCondition = ((sqDayOfWeek(Time[0].DayOfWeek) != 4 ) && ((Minute < 11) && (sqATR(66, 0) > sqATR(69, 0))));
> if(ShortEntryCondition == true) {
> double price = roundPrice(Open[14] + (-0.6) * (sqBarRange(99-1)));
> sqEnterShortStop(price);
> }
> }
> }
> 
> }
> 
> override protected void sqDefineStopLoss(int direction) {
> stopLoss.type = CalculationMode.Ticks;
> 
> if(direction == 1) {
> // long
> stopLoss.value = 0;
> } else {
> // short
> stopLoss.value = 0;
> }
> }
> 
> override protected void sqDefineProfitTarget(int direction) {
> profitTarget.type = CalculationMode.Ticks;
> 
> if(direction == 1) {
> // long
> profitTarget.value = _round((0.93 * sqATR(97, 0)) / TickSize, 0);
> } else {
> // short
> profitTarget.value = _round((0.93 * sqATR(97, 0)) / TickSize, 0);
> }
> }
> 
> #region Properties
> #endregion
> }
> }




I don't have a clue how to import thecode into NT7 GB. If you can find out that'd be great. I think it needs to be zipped and saved as an NT Strat...edit, tried using notepad and save as a Cs file then zipped it....got an error


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> I don't have a clue how to import thecode into NT7 GB. If you can find out that'd be great. I think it needs to be zipped and saved as an NT Strat...edit, tried using notepad and save as a Cs file then zipped it....got an error




I don't use NT7 so I'm not going to be much help there.  The code itself is useless, so don't worry too much.


----------



## CanOz

Classic DAX pattern here, buy the restest of the VPOC on a pattern break, if the offers thing and bids thicken up...didn't get the whole measured move but that because i only saw it passing through the garage and didn't know what to expect....Might have got a few more points...


----------



## CanOz

Missed another VPOC test on the DAX tonight while managing this VWAP test buy on the Bund.....


----------



## CanOz

Another nice VWAP play, however i wasn't around to take full use of the multiple contracts....ahh family....


----------



## CanOz

Three trades tonight so far....puttering around really...lunch time too, not ideal...


----------



## CanOz

A last trade before bed....honest


----------



## rippedbogan

Nice trading. Hope to see you continue it. For FGBL and FDAX, how do you gauge, or what information do you consider when expecting a decent volume/volatility session as opposed to a flat session? (obviously pub.holidays are expected to be flat days, data times etc, but what else?)- I am trying to understand what affects/moves these instruments in regards to the underlying fundamentals. Cheers


----------



## CanOz

Well that's a good question ripped....it depends on allot of things, such as where we are in relation to value areas on the composite profile. Where we are in the current bracket, yesterday's value areas. What is the theme driving the market, what news is expected. All these things can help you determine to trade the day as a range extention or rotational day.


----------



## CanOz

Pretty quiet right now, not sure if its just lunch, Christmas or a rest day.....maybe all three.

Anyway, three trades, one left open on the Bund...


----------



## CanOz

Done and dusted...not bad for a slow nite, FOMC apparently....no wonder it was slow! Meant to get into 3 contracts on the bund, but only got filled on one this time....


----------



## CanOz

Two nice trades today on the European markets....missed the retest of the dax consolidation and then took too cracks at the bund as it was getting too short, both break even and then i was feeding austin when it finally went bid....lots of opportunities still around....will post a chart later, still not letting me post png files from my ipad pro.


----------



## CanOz

Just to show how far this Trump fueled Santa rally has come.....The pullback will be sharp and swift as a NYE hangover!


----------



## CanOz

This is a play that i don't see that often but so far has a 100% strike rate. I call it the "hollow profile" . The profile develops with an obvious amount of missing volume at the outlier portion of the profile, sooner or later the market will explore this area for value as it is unfinished business in terms of auction market theory....i didn't trade this but i did trade a similar setup on the Bund a few weeks back....great one for MP users.


----------



## OmegaTrader

CanOz said:


> Just to show how far this Trump fueled Santa rally has come.....The pullback will be sharp and swift as a NYE hangover!




Do you think the recent rise in global equity markets is the trump factor or seasonality or a combination of both???

I am seeing this recent increase in sp500  on new highs and  Asx200 increasing recently too

l am wondering you opinion,

Catalyst?

End in sight?

My view is looking at vix mainly us and aus at historic lows....

Dax doesn't seem as much, but still look lower
	

		
			
		

		
	




When/if the market turns, might be a good idea to be holding options for protection or gains.

my limited twocents


----------



## CanOz

Allot of this is flight to dollar denominated assets I reckon, the US is looking attractive being the only one raising rates. Then you have the seasonality coupled with the pro business feel of the trump team...my two bob....


----------



## OmegaTrader

CanOz said:


> Allot of this is flight to dollar denominated assets I reckon, the US is looking attractive being the only one raising rates. Then you have the seasonality coupled with the pro business feel of the trump team...my two bob....





hmmm

It hasn't stopped yet.
Interesting to see what/if anything the turning catalyst will be

Mid January realisation that the holiday is over 

That trump doesn't actually do anything, increased rates in us, or international event.

Or maybe the government/ Trump can keep propping up the US by borrowing..

Tomorrow never comes- still many years until gov interest repayments completely take over.


----------



## CanOz

100 levels of depth available now on nymex products with CQG data feed....certainly makes the book maps memory more accurate.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Geez so many numbers!!


----------



## CanOz

Good for the bookmap......only use 20 on the Dom


----------



## CanOz

A good collection of free stuff, NT8, i like the label...my eyes are getting old.


----------



## Modest

CanOz said:


> A good collection of free stuff, NT8, i like the label...my eyes are getting old.




http://ninza.co/product/horizontal-label

Oh hell yeah this is exactly what I've been looking for ages, thanks for sharing CanOz!


----------



## CanOz

View attachment 70860
View attachment 70861

	

		
			
		

		
	
 Two nice semi automatic trades last night whilst sleeping....testing continues.


----------



## CanOz

Little Yen trade to start the morning....


----------



## lindsayf

Hi Canoz

What Volume Profile indicator are you using for NT8?
I am shortly going to start simming perhaps the Dax/Bund or Fesx on a lowish timeframe using VP analysis.  There are a lot of VP indicators out there.  Do you recommend yours?
I want to be able to display each days VP for RTH and also want a larger timeframe composite for a bigger picture look.  
I am newish to auction theory but really wondering why I did not look into it many years ago.

thanks


----------



## CanOz

Stopped out on my yen trade but got two off, then got defensive....good thing, got full stopped on GC again.


----------



## CanOz

lindsayf said:


> Hi Canoz
> 
> What Volume Profile indicator are you using for NT8?
> I am shortly going to start simming perhaps the Dax/Bund or Fesx on a lowish timeframe using VP analysis.  There are a lot of VP indicators out there.  Do you recommend yours?
> I want to be able to display each days VP for RTH and also want a larger timeframe composite for a bigger picture look.
> I am newish to auction theory but really wondering why I did not look into it many years ago.
> 
> thanks




Hi Lindsay,

I use Rancho Dinero, they're one of the best for nt8. The coding is really solid, ex MS engineer. 

If you're not married to nt8 then I'd look at sierra chart. Not sure if they have as much historical data though. Ninjas historical servers are very handy.


----------



## lindsayf

CanOz said:


> Hi Lindsay,
> 
> I use Rancho Dinero, they're one of the best for nt8. The coding is really solid, ex MS engineer.
> 
> If you're not married to nt8 then I'd look at sierra chart. Not sure if they have as much historical data though. Ninjas historical servers are very handy.




Thanks - Yes all things being equal I would try SC but I have a lifetime license for NT so I know it a bit and think the commissions will be cheaper so will give it a try.  I dont need any fancy functionality as will be trading discetionary.  Just need a good VP indi. I know SC comes with a good VP and Volume ladder as part of main functionality so that sound a nice package.  Will go that way if not happy with NT.  Will check out Rancho Dinero website thks.


----------



## lindsayf

lindsayf said:


> Thanks - Yes all things being equal I would try SC but I have a lifetime license for NT so I know it a bit and think the commissions will be cheaper so will give it a try.  I dont need any fancy functionality as will be trading discetionary.  Just need a good VP indi. I know SC comes with a good VP and Volume ladder as part of main functionality so that sound a nice package.  Will go that way if not happy with NT.  Will check out Rancho Dinero website thks.




They are the most expensive VP indi's I have seen but certainly within the mix they cover all bases.
I would be looking at over $600 US for what I want crikey!


----------



## CanOz

lindsayf said:


> They are the most expensive VP indi's I have seen but certainly within the mix they cover all bases.
> I would be looking at over $600 US for what I want crikey!




Yeah, I got them nearly 5 years ago and I think they were a little cheaper. You can always lease them for a while too, actually if you can lease the composite then the other stuff is mostly available for free in one place or another.


----------



## CanOz

Got me ar@# handed to me in GC this morning....full stop. Tsk Tsk...chased it. Could have put a stop behind a 100+ lot on the bid after i got in as when that got hit and he liquidated it drop another 10 ticks in a flash....doh head!


----------



## CanOz

Watching for a chance to sell copper .... looking for the monthly VPOC.


----------



## CanOz

And back in this mongrel again....


----------



## CanOz

An excerpt from John Nettos new book "the Global Macro Edge " , his track record, audited. This is the style of trading that I aspire to, contextually. He's very price action based for his entries but with a strong global macro context behind him.


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Watching for a chance to sell copper .... looking for the monthly VPOC.




This contract has rolled , still looking for a selling opportunity.


----------



## CanOz

Copper has blasted through our sell zone and with the auction changing that much we'll look for buyers at the retest level....


----------



## Quant

CanOz said:


> View attachment 70928
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Copper has blasted through our sell zone and with the auction changing that much we'll look for buyers at the retest level....



Seasonal for you Canoz fwiw  . No idea if its of any use tbh but it does help with some instruments ( spi/xjo ) ..


----------



## CanOz

Long yen, long CL, short nq just below the rth vwap into the aapl announcement...now resting the session low from below. Was long copper but that at breakeven. Yen trades have been good to me all week, short then flipped. Watching zb now for a break higher as well.


----------



## CanOz

View attachment 70951

	

		
			
		

		
	
 recent 6j trades....short again...
	

		
			
		

		
	

View attachment 70950


----------



## CanOz

Gold, still the Red headed step child....not in it either....


----------



## CanOz

Bund getting bashed as well, short from 161.69


----------



## CanOz

CL, short again from 47.59, starting to look like a technical bear market in CL


----------



## CanOz

Risk on....plenty to go around!


----------



## CanOz

Nice little heat map trade here, a large offer keeping a lid on the market, i was thinking if he gets hit he'll need to cover, take 2 just in case it runs...it didn't in this case but got a few ticks from the 1st contract and broke even on the second. Bought another at the retest as we saw some big offers above the market that we might be gunning for....
	

		
			
		

		
	




Also got a spread on at the moment, short 1 DAX and long 2 ES.


----------



## CanOz

Copper shorts the last coupla days....
	

		
			
		

		
	

View attachment 70967


----------



## CanOz

Short dax long es starting to work.


----------



## CanOz

Wow, overnight commodities continued to get flogged, some great volatility in the currencies as well. That's the advantage of trading multiple cross assets, there's got to be volatility somewhere...


----------



## CanOz

The VIX, GOLD and Fear....playing around looking for a regime filter for my swing trading....Some nice signals after a spike in the VIX, the vol crush is a good GC short....


----------



## CanOz

The Vix and the junk bond ETF, JNK
	

		
			
		

		
	




Watch JNK, not the VIX for clues to volatility


----------



## CanOz

The US indices and JNK....there are some decent index spreads about now....


----------



## Quant

CanOz said:


> The Vix and the junk bond ETF, JNK
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 71094
> 
> 
> Watch JNK, not the VIX for clues to volatility



junk to treasury bond spread is a good tell risk on/off  , never thought to look at etf , will check it out . Just had a look at my SPX volatility model and its at a rare setup , close to 40 year lows 10 week range SPX , much the same 10 day range and extreme low atr daily completes the set . Generally a solid sign its safe to fade SPX pops aggressively for a few weeks . I been crushing XJO pops all May so far


----------



## CanOz

JNK with an ATR....


----------



## CanOz

pfffft....Saturday night and we're comparing regime themes....lol

Whose passionate about trading?


----------



## Quant

CanOz said:


> pfffft....Saturday night and we're comparing regime themes....lol
> 
> Whose passionate about trading?



 nice and quiet , no markets open , great time to get serious research done imo  , I write my best code in these  times , no interruptions , good continuity in thought process and yeah I am pretty passionate , world domination is hard work


----------



## CanOz

Quant said:


> nice and quiet , no markets open , great time to get serious research done imo  , I write my best code in these  times , no interruptions , good continuity in thought process and yeah I am pretty passionate , world domination is hard work




Hows the coding going?

I like it if i find some quiet time during the weekend to look at the regime...really helps with context. 

I'm finding hard though to be too bearish as i feel everyone must be feeling sceptical of this massive dislocation between speculative/tech and the Spy/Dia ...the vix says complacent, credit is flat, coiled....


----------



## CanOz

Credit is flat, price wise. Just shake my head at the Q's


----------



## Quant

CanOz said:


> Hows the coding going?



Ive really nailed it this year , no need to employ anyone now as I reckon I could teach it now  , although at some stage id still like to employ a coder to reduce the workload , now that I'm competent I have more ideas than ever and I really need 2 of me . See how it pans out .

Hows the baby , house and job going ? You must be flat out atm , we should catch up again oneday


----------



## CanOz

Copper setting up in a bear wedge. One to keep an eye on.


----------



## Quant

Canoz just wondering do you use scans to find trades in the futures markets ( indice  , comms , energies , softs , fx ) , Ive been looking at scans on daily and even weekly to find some multi day swing trades  .  Suppose I should really start my own thread , ive only been building/looking at these things a few weeks so I have nothing solid just yet  . Mostly energy , Europe indice , hogs and rice on the list to look for swing highs . Mostly FX on the potential swing low list  . Will build watchlists and scan for swing reversals moving forwards   . Never stop pushing ahead  ..


----------



## CanOz

Had a bunch of inside day scans, was looking to spot balance, low volatility...then getting ready intraday....


----------



## CanOz

I do get pattern alerts from IG still. They can be useful for highlighting breakouts.


----------



## CanOz

Had a couple examples of flash crash trades lately, areas where stops are run and the algoes pull the liquidity....In the HG example i was actually short going into the stop run and i covered remotely the whole position. Its not a perfect example as there was some Euro news that interupted the price action. The Dax example is from tonight. I actually mamaged to catch another little flash crash just then on the dax, not the snap back but the liquidity vanishing, while i was short. Will post that one next.


----------



## CanOz

The second time we lost liquidity tonight, bids just evaporated. Gotta cover as the liquidity comes back.


----------



## CanOz

And to top the night off, copper.....off to bed


----------



## CanOz

Best day this month....


----------



## Joe Blow

CanOz has emailed broker statements to me in relation to the trades documented in his post above and I can confirm that everything checks out and the trades are legitimate.


----------



## barney

Joe Blow said:


> CanOz has emailed broker statements to me in relation to the trades documented in his post above and I can confirm that everything checks out and the trades are legitimate.



Never any doubt from us long termers of course but the verification cements it for any new comers  Nice going Can ... The confidence you have in your trading has been obvious for a while now so great to see all the hard work is putting "green" on your bottom line  Anyone would be happy with that profit for a month let alone a day!!


----------



## Quant

barney said:


> Never any doubt from us long termers of course but the verification cements it for any new comers  Nice going Can ... The confidence you have in your trading has been obvious for a while now so great to see all the hard work is putting "green" on your bottom line  Anyone would be happy with that profit for a month let alone a day!!



Don't know about a month but a week would do most , Canoz is all the proof you need to realise hard work is what pays of in this game . I know the type of hours he has put in to get to where he is  , probably less hours required to become a doctor .  He deserves the rewards coming his way  . Well done


----------



## barney

Quant said:


> Don't know about a month but a week would do most




Nah, I'd be more than happy with 10K profit a month over the long haul ..... at 10K a week I'd become unbearable to live with lol ..  I know you are also doing well Quant...  but most of us "punters" are happy to be actually not losing money most of the time! ... again well done Can and lets hope the good run continues ....
ps Quant: you should start your own trading thread


----------



## CanOz

Thanks barney, quant....no shortage of hard yards that's for sure...to quants point in another thread, I could quantify my trading, but it would cost me a ton....time or money or both. Definitely writing some rules around it would be helpful...easy enough to do.

Anyone  on the risk off trade?


----------



## Mirus3000

CanOz said:


> Best day this month....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 71277



Wow. But other hand maybe this is a small part of your account for example .001%


----------



## CanOz

Had a good day today too, for just one or two trades.....Tried to get long the Dax, again interupted....


----------



## Modest

Great entry and masterful scaling out


----------



## Mirus3000

You are my hero now


----------



## CanOz

Mirus, yesterday was a 4% day for me. Not my biggest but certainly one of the best as far the whole process is concerned...I focused on the process more than the results and I'm happy with that.


----------



## CanOz

Trades missed today....i don't feel bad about these, excited in fact....its great to see things moving again.


----------



## CanOz

Snagged a Dax trade to cap off my evening (week)....I should have held this one, it could be a great trade.


----------



## CanOz

If I'd not had to work today, I would have held that sucker to the top of the value area, which is exactly where it was going and where it ended up.


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Snagged a Dax trade to cap off my evening (week)....I should have held this one, it could be a great trade.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 71299




Interesting to note that no one has asked about the losing trade i had before i flipped here. Thats the great thing about not being married to a bias and having a position in the market, you pay attention. I was just after a quick flush, a run of stops. After i saw how strong it got bought back, i exited and watched the DOM. Once i realized it had gone well bid, i looked at the ES 06-17 and saw Modest's level holding and reversing, so i got long. I was quite confident that was the bottom and the ES was calling the shots.


----------



## CanOz

https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-126-jonathan-hf_trader/
I love how he uses volume profile and he's big on context.


----------



## Modest

CanOz said:


> https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-126-jonathan-hf_trader/
> I love how he uses volume profile and he's big on context.



I stopped listening awhile ago because the of the quality of guests deteriorated but gave this a listen and this was a great interview.

@ the 46:33 mark he shares the secret sauce 

"At the end of the day what moves price?"
 .....transactions


----------



## Quant

CanOz said:


> https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-126-jonathan-hf_trader/
> I love how he uses volume profile and he's big on context.





He has some good ideas but I think he is a bit lazy , he mentions discretionary trades over lunch in ES  , if he had quantified these periods and had a way to measure/filter there is zero need to be discretionary , Also you CANT do statistical analysis on it , its only relevant if you take/measure EVERY signal . I see quite a few flaws in how he goes about it tbh 





Also as far as

""  @ the 46:33 mark he shares the secret sauce 

"At the end of the day what moves price?"
.....transactions  ""

absolutely nothing secret about supply/demand so not sure what the point is here


Nevertheless a worthwhile podcast to listen to

PS I like volume profile but it accentuates volume at price and doesn't really represent volume at time , I feel both are useful for systems .  Ironically Canoz prior to this podcast I was actually thinking of doing a bit of work with both horizontal and vertical volumes marked on charts  , this has just reinforced the desire to do so  ... so many ideas so little time


----------



## CanOz

Long the yen again....


----------



## kid hustlr

Modest said:


> I stopped listening awhile ago because the of the quality of guests deteriorated but gave this a listen and this was a great interview.
> 
> @ the 46:33 mark he shares the secret sauce
> 
> "At the end of the day what moves price?"
> .....transactions




my thoughts exactly on the podcast, feels a little more salelsy and as such I only listen to the ones which appear to be of interest to me in the blurb


----------



## kid hustlr

Can - there are a lot of lines/indicators on your chart at times. Any interest in going into some detail about what they represent/how you use them (doesn't need to be a long speel, but might help some newer traders)


----------



## CanOz

Well, what a let down, i forgot to switch accounts.....i'm still on Sim101

Another distraction. My play shows up and i arm the platform but don't change the account....very frustrating.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Can - there are a lot of lines/indicators on your chart at times. Any interest in going into some detail about what they represent/how you use them (doesn't need to be a long speel, but might help some newer traders)




I just use a Volume Weighted Average Price channel, mainly for context but once in a trade i use it to manage the trailing stop, if i havea runner. The other lines are just extended from the prior days profile, initial balance highs, value area high, point of control etc. On the composite proifle the lines represent the various value zones by high volume nodes and low volume nodes. I work on the principle that once into a value area price will test at least the high volume node and possible the other side of value.


----------



## CanOz

Spewing.....


----------



## CanOz

Had a nice trade on copper and was up nicely for the day, then i was scalping around the DAX and suffered a 4 second lag in order routing,
	

		
			
		

		
	




	

		
			
		

		
	
 likely from my recent crappy internet....that it for me until i figure this out.


----------



## CanOz

Just logged my best single trade, i think my best single day ever. Playing the swing back to the top of the range after i missed the low in the DAX...bought 2 @ 12605.00 as it just pulled back to the POC, stop at 586. then went to put my son to bed.


----------



## CanOz

Looks like i beat last Thursday by 75 bucks...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Dax to the rescue!


----------



## CanOz

Looks like we ended up rotating back, even the NQ. Risk off into the weekend....


----------



## CanOz

The Dax has rejected the value area high and with our monthly profile complete we'll be looking for a low risk selling opportunity going into the first of the month. Dax daily chart and monthly profile.


----------



## CanOz

Waited for this Dax trade for a while. I took a quick stab around the open with no success, so when i saw this failure at the highs i took 1 contract short and held it as long as i could. Then i got long as the shorts got flushed out, took me a couple of trys...through the ADP report as well.


----------



## CanOz

My last 100 trades.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Hey snap!! My last almost 100 trades on the Dax, pity mine isn't real like yours though  Nice job!


----------



## CanOz

Nice work though, whats stopping you from converting to a live account now? Looks like an adge there. 

I've got 1100 simulated outcomes since i rebuilt my mobo and went only with NT8. I still use simulated trades when i can't be around to manage a trade, simply to see how the trade hypothesis worked out and to refine the exit management. This was a key driver for me using pre-programmed trade management strategies to reduce my risk and take profits at specific R levels. If i'm avialable to get into a trade and manage it though, i don't want to miss an oppotunity for a 'fat pitch' if its given to me so i'm pretty pissed if i select the wrong account.


----------



## CanOz

NFP tonight, will have a look at the data and work out a plan.


----------



## CanOz

A Nice little GC trade off a ledge profile (incomplete), that morphed into a channel after i got into it, then the channel failed spectacularly with a huge iceberg order getting smashed and then unloading the position on the retest...great to watch. Another ledge play for the collection. The perfect entry on this was the retest of the VAL but i entered too early.


----------



## kid hustlr

The last 100 trades chart is really interesting and good for people to see how it comes in bursts


----------



## CanOz

Was nicely in front today but managed to p*ss it away on crappy trade ideas. Should have been looking at cl and hg.


----------



## CanOz

A mixed bag tonight....NFP in 2 hours


----------



## CanOz

A quiet day Monday. Two trades, a nice breakout on the 6B and a failed CL trade. Wish i'd studied the CL trade a few moments longer, the short side was so obvious in handsight, pretty disappointed i let my bias interfere so greatly,


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Nice work though, whats stopping you from converting to a live account now? Looks like an edge there.




$$$


----------



## Quant

ThingyMajiggy said:


> $$$




The power of compounding returns is a powerful thing  , time is on our side  ..


How does that ad go  ... from small things big things grow


----------



## CanOz

Lol....time doesn't feel like its on my side these days....


----------



## CanOz

Working for the broker today, missed some nice moves...all on my own with my oldest fella tongith, happy to scratch.. 
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 .


----------



## lindsayf

ThingyMajiggy said:


> $$$




Hi TM
I am trading the 'Dax' by analysing on NT8 with VP but executing on the Pepperstone Ger30.  1 lot is about $1.50 per point aud so sufficient granularity to position size with a small account.  If things go well I will ditch the cfd and move onto the futures contract.  So far the execution has not been a problem.
Just a thought.


----------



## CanOz

Been a quiet week, i've been fighting off the flu and had the oldest kid on my own whilst the other two family members were away.....anyway, i though i'd post some FTSE charts for Kid....


----------



## CanOz

Working on my custom Auction Theory bars...i'll be able to compile statistics with these and see how/when certain patterns in the order flow work better than others. These are a 10 range bar that also shows the VPOC for that range profile. I've hidden the other volume because for all intents and purposes it is irrelevant. In Auction Theory the trend is said to be aging as the value areas become stacked closer together. There are also some interesting volumes at the pivots.


----------



## The Bear

CanOz said:


> Working on my custom Auction Theory bars...i'll be able to compile statistics with these and see how/when certain patterns in the order flow work better than others. These are a 10 range bar that also shows the VPOC for that range profile. I've hidden the other volume because for all intents and purposes it is irrelevant. In Auction Theory the trend is said to be aging as the value areas become stacked closer together. There are also some interesting volumes at the pivots.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 71957




Nice, looking slick CanOz....I like that first pivot...VPOC at the bottom of the bar indicating some absorption...Delta was diverging then went positive on that absorption up bar....Also outside of the 1 std dev of VWAP. I'd be interested to see what stats you pull from it. You could even make an indicator that plots the VPOC distance relative to the last bar and use it for divergences etc


----------



## CanOz

A work in progress, a system based on order flow or volumes at price and delta divergences.


----------



## CanOz

This things is having ball today...


----------



## CanOz

Was quite happy I held onto my runner last night...been waiting for that move in Cl for days....just lucky I was at the desk.


----------



## CanOz

While the US sleeps GC quietly gets a bid....target circa 1295

I got stopped out of little trade after the NFP announcement and i was too tired to stay up....just lucky to have sat down when this was setting up today. 1 off and two contracts left.


----------



## fiftyeight

Care to run through the set up in a little more detail?


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Care to run through the set up in a little more detail?




No rocket scirnce, just looking at value areas on the long term compositire and entering on the session chart, a nice volume strip cued me to put the stop limit in a a point where i though the shorts would get out and get some momentum going.


----------



## CanOz

Having a little time on my hands i thought i would review a failed trade and a missed opportunity....in CL yesty.

I was waiting for a retest of the "neckline" of a head and shoulders type pattern in CL on the 480 minute chart. More than anything this neckline was also the Value Area High on the Composite profile and i was going to bet on rejection. Price tested the level and failed initially, i entered 3 contracts short and it went against me and then into profit roughly 5-7 ticks. Then alarm bells started ringing, firstly some fundemental headlines on twitter regarding Iran/US sabre rattling etc. Then i could see the offers getting thick at every other point in the book. While this would be bearish in some markets, in CL it seems to be more bullish as once they get hit they'll add fuel in the way of momentum to any move higher as they cover. The market came back to a point where i could get out at roughly break even so i liquidiated the position. As you can see on the charts the market broke though that VAH into the next large value area and then retested the 49.84 level, providing a great opportunity and low risk entry for a long. So i missed that opportunity and then the market tested the VAH of the compositre value area in a large trend day move.


----------



## CanOz

Bit of grocery money today on the NKY....


----------



## Wysiwyg

Any particular reason why you closed at a 5 point loss in that first trade on the chart?


----------



## CanOz

Started sweeping offers and the yen was selling off. It couldn't tag the vwap so I figured someone wanted it bad.


----------



## CanOz

Looks like some decent short covering has begun, got the channel breakout and trying to hang on for a little more than grocery money this time.


----------



## CanOz

Its ALIVE! The return of volatility. As the MACRO Tourist said, we now will see volatility no matter what direction the index goes, welcome back and all hail the outright day trader!


----------



## CanOz

At the very moment i was ready to give up on Jigsaw and Ninja, i get the latest version of DayTradr and my Rancho tools....the new gradient profiles show you really obviously where value is....The DayTradr DOMs are great and use nothing for resources....Firefox is the current hog.


----------



## CanOz

BTC in a nice bull flag before the launch of the CBOE BTC contract this morning....


----------



## CanOz

Had a couple goes at this one....should have been at least 3 contracts though. My usual size is 3 so my bad...


----------



## lindsayf

CanOz said:


> Had a couple goes at this one....should have been at least 3 contracts though. My usual size is 3 so my bad...
> 
> View attachment 87086



Great trade well done.
I had a couple of short tries in the same area but was taken out at BE just before the drop a little above your winning entry. My read was for a new high  before a down day so I managed it fairly tight.   It was the low volume around the actual reversal area that confused me.  I tend to look for big sellers to enter in a reversal/topping area.  In this case the buyers just disappeared and all that was left were the sellers.  There was no real battle.


----------



## CanOz

Lindsay are you using the dom now? Or a footprint chart?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

lindsayf said:


> There was no real battle.




What about before 17:30?  Wouldn't you call that a battle between longs and shorts?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Canoz, which volume studies do you find most useful?


----------



## CanOz

I use volume profiles based on different snapshots of time....


----------



## CanOz

Starting this week I’m trading two days a week. Monday and Tuesday, the AM session of the HKEX. Good to be back at my desk again...


----------



## CanOz

This mornings plan:

Ensure first of all that all data is streaming in sync.

If we open in balance then we'll sit on our hands until we get to Value area Highs and VALs, Previous High of Day and PLOD. At those levels we'll look to fade if we see traders get trapped and the levels fail below where they've committed.

If we Open out of balance we'll look to fade the prior days balance areas either high or low. Possibly looking like a gap open or in balance today. In the case of a gap above the PHOD we'll look for an open drive and then join the flow at a small pause or consolidation.


----------



## CanOz

Well, an open drive after a big gap up is not a great start. We'll end up with a large initial balance area ( I use the first 15 minutes of pre-open for this). we'll look to fade this after we see where we end up in terms of the highs and lows.


----------



## CanOz

I'm done for the day, a very rotational day. I'm satisfied with a small loss (HKD) given the whole day was basically trading in a large value area. Once i saw the large inital balance my gut feel was that it was going to be a rotational day. I really don't have a plan for these days and i should have, in hindsight, sat on my hands and played the extremes. Going forward i need to develop a set of plays specifically for this type of day, or even sit it out. I do recall that there was a time a day like this would have me hit my day stop.


----------



## CanOz

Good Morning all - Trade plan
Wrote some of this whilst doing my cardio at the gym this morning. "_Possibly a gap up, not allot of shorts on this market so we could gap up and then either test and continue or trade back into yestys value area._ We just looking for a pullback and eventually we could see some consolidation before the advance continues."

The Nikkei did exactly that, looked above and failed. So the HSI could still gap up but unlikely, if it does well sell any sign of weakness at all opportunities after the pre - open. I'd expect perhaps an open in the ON value area. There, we can look for test of the ON VAH and VALs. Then looking for a trade back to the the VPOC at 31380. Just looking for a down day or pull back here, its a pretty strong trend. 31200 should off support for continuation. So if our hypothesis plays our we will looked for trapped buyers as opportunities to sell. All oif this of course will be before the news, at 12:00 PM - Industrial Production. We'll look to see how that reaction hits the longs in this market. We'll let that news settle and then evaluate the opportunities on our levels with more detail then, i'll post a mini plan.

Two charts, Nikkei and HSI


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Tradingview.  Will become a leader in platforms, imo.  They're doing everything right.


----------



## CanOz

Well today's action was nothing short of spectacular. The only think more spectacular was how i failed to take advantage of it. I basically tried to fade the sell off the whole time, in fact my only profitable trades were shorts. This is particularly difficult for me as i normally do well on trend days. Typically after rotational day, where you can fade spikes, you get caught. The market cut through levels that typically hold like a hot knife through butter.

On a positive note, i now have a more reliable workspace as i move more stuff away from Ninjatrader onto TradingView. I lost connectivity for a short period and when i got it back my charts had large gaps in data.

Lots to take away and improve on, but I've got a few days before i come back at it....

I traded the MHI today, the mini. I'll stick to that and the HHI for now.


----------



## CanOz

For the remainder of the days this week I’ll screen record the market and review it later. I’m also recording some market replay data. All this in hopes of developing some micro plays...


----------



## kid hustlr

Can't argue with the set up!


----------



## CanOz

Almost certainly we'll see an open drive if the HSI opens above 31200, 12400 on the HHI. However, given recent geopolitical events, there is a chance that we could open just under those levels and either test and fail or just fail. If an open drive we'd try to grab a ride, but otherwise we need to look for trapped buyers below those levels....I doubt i'll be trading, instead waiting on a call from immigration...


----------



## CanOz

Wow, i was surprised to see such a dramatic fail. An open drive followed by a total rejection of the VAL from the 14th, then a sell off back to the 31000 zone. I scalped around allot today, never really got anywhere...but i'm making progress on my set of plays...

the Nikkei has powered up and the ES is looking to fill this mornings gap down...


----------



## tech/a

Can

After having a read through the last 4 pages
I cant see an advantage in what you are doing?

I know you like M/P but cant see it being beneficial to your bottom line.
It just seems the practical application of the "Plan" isn't delivering?

Bit harsh I know but?


----------



## CanOz

First time this has happened to me for a while, jumped the creek, with me in it...


----------



## CanOz

Really tech? In each case my hypothesis played out. The problem doesn’t lie with my ability to develop context. My problem lies with turning that into profitable days on the hang seng. I appreciate your feedback, however this process is identical to what I did that eventually led to my success with trading the Dax.

The pace of trade is taking a bit to get used to, but I’m making improvement. I’m still over trading but that will change. 2/3 days I traded were positive days. What exactly isn’t working? I’ve never seriously traded these markets before??

After the session is finished I do a rigorous review of my trades. As I remove the overtrading, add more micro plays, I’ll see a further improvement. 

My plan is always:
1. Get profitable 
2. Get profitable after costs
3. Get profitable on 2-3 contracts
4. Get profitable on 4-6 contracts 

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Today after the level at 31009 (31013 vpoc) held, well look for the range from 31009 to 30816 to trade today. Its hard not to favour
	

		
			
		

		
	




	

		
			
		

		
	
 a downside extension to 30480 based on the position on the composite. 

Above 30999 and we'll be looking for shorts to cover. 

30640 may provide enough support (high volume rejection) to be a serious zone to end a decline.

I'm working today so like to see this develop over the next few sessions (Morning, Aft, Evening) today and be in a position next week for a scenario where we break out of the range.


----------



## CanOz

I think allot of time people see the volume profiles are being complicated and cannot understand them or how they can be used in trading.


First of all market profile cannot be used in all markets as it was originally intended. That’s because most markets trade Extended Trading Hours (ETH) and the volume that occurs in the these periods is not as high as the Regular trading Hours (RTH). Therefore a traditional TPO that only measures time against price, is not relevant in ETH. *Volume profiles however*, are relevant in all time frames and that will never change unless volume is no longer available or trades are made in a dark pool (unlikely for futures for the majority of trades).


With that established let me say the most valuable characteristic of volume profiles for me is to show me where participants are committed. If I know where they are committed then I can determine with some degree of probability were they may want to get out of their commitments. This may look like a breakout of a value area (fat bit on the profile) or a successful retest of a profiles HVN (high volume node). It’s pretty much that simple. It’s just a way to organise the markets information and it has 100% confluence will all other successful methods of analysis because it is the transactions of the auction that one is looking it, nothing more and nothing less.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> With that established let me say the most valuable characteristic of volume profiles for me is to show me where participants are committed. If I know where they are committed then I can determine with some degree of probability were they may want to get out of their commitments.



Since most traders are wrong most of the time, I think the commitment of traders (by price level) indicates where _not _to enter a trade.  Instead wait for the highly committed hoardes to get desperate, then hop on the opposite direction trade as they get out.  Then of course one would need to know what the hoardes are hoping for - up or down.

But all these edges we use... if they had serious 'meat on the bone', they will get exploited into insignificance before you know it.  Edges are just a whiff of potential, nothing more.


----------



## CanOz

Only half can be wrong GB....and as minwa has shown discretionary traders can still out perform algorithms.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> Only half can be wrong GB....and as minwa has shown discretionary traders can still out perform algorithms.



As you know, a volume node says there's a lot of buyers and sellers at a particular price, both betting against each other for the next move.  Such volume is always from the big players (both sides), but we never know their time frame.  They may be big players using HFT scalping, or they may be big players building a position over hours or days.  So finding distressed traders by loking at the volume areas may not even be possible.  What I said in the previous post probably isn't tradable.

The notion that big players play against retail is sort of ridiculous to me.  Wyckoff and others made it seem like this was the case.  Big players play against _each other_, and what we do is of no interest to them.

Probably there will be ease of movement in low volume areas, but that's way too hard to determine from a VAP chart.  There's just too many places you can set the interval, and when you change the interval, the whole landscape changes.  Personally I can't find a use for volume at price style charts.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Even the very popular wave volume has major drawbacks.  It seems useful in speccy stock trading, but in futures it almost works the opposite of what Weiss and co. say.  Weiss' videos are _so compelling_, and yet when you put them into practice they don't work.  You almost want to be looking for downward moves with high volume and upwards moves with low volume, which is the opposite of what he says.

There are ways to profit, obviously.  Othwerwise retail futures traders wouldn't figure in the ATOs top earners stats.


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## CanOz

GB, the fact is there are transactions that have taken place, for each futures contract sold it must be owned by someone else and visa versa. Some of those traders will not hold on to thier positions and will be stopped out as the market moves against them. It is irrelevant to me what time frame they are, only that they are aggressive and I can see that on my DOM.

I'm quite happy to post my blog to Twitter each day if it means I avoid argument. This is my thread and I don't enjoy the semantic rhetoric....


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## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Only half can be wrong GB....and as minwa has shown discretionary traders can still out perform algorithms.




Well over half can be wrong
Well over half can be right.

Your only wrong if your on the wrong side of a trade according to everyone on the right side.
It doesn't matter that your wrong only how long you stay wrong.

Discretionary can and does out perform algos.
But for how long and with how much?

I must say that I agree with a lot of what GB has posted up on this thread--re Volume
price / control areas.



Gringotts Bank said:


> You almost want to be looking for downward moves with high volume and upwards moves with low volume, which is the opposite of what he says.




Which if it is the way ---- you should and can trade a plan around it.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> GB, the fact is there are transactions that have taken place, for each futures contract sold it must be owned by someone else and visa versa. Some of those traders will not hold on to thier positions and will be stopped out as the market moves against them. It is irrelevant to me what time frame they are, only that they are aggressive and I can see that on my DOM.
> 
> I'm quite happy to post my blog to Twitter each day if it means I avoid argument. This is my thread and I don't enjoy the semantic rhetoric....



I don't do rhetoric.  I do real.  

No point arguing though.  Let's all go our separate ways.


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## CanOz

Your real is all talk mate. Post a REAL broker statement or an account balance to back up your endless drivel, or shut the trap door.


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## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Well over half can be wrong
> Well over half can be right.
> 
> Your only wrong if your on the wrong side of a trade according to everyone on the right side.
> It doesn't matter that your wrong only how long you stay wrong.
> 
> Discretionary can and does out perform algos.
> But for how long and with how much?
> 
> I must say that I agree with a lot of what GB has posted up on this thread--re Volume
> price / control areas




That because you don't understand it, clearly. 

Volume profiles are widely used by all future traders that I know of existing in a professional context. They're the most used tool next to the DOM itself....oops, another one that you find of little use....face palm...


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## tech/a

CanOz said:


> That because you don't understand it, clearly.
> 
> Volume profiles are widely used by all future traders that I know of existing in a professional context. They're the most used tool next to the DOM itself....oops, another one that you find of little use....face palm...




Where do you get the idea I find both Market Profile and DOM of no use?
Studied Steidlmayer when you were at high school.
Best book is from CBOT.

Your taking my comments personally Can Oz.
They are simply an observation.

If you think about my comments above any strong move long or short "Could" have more people agreeing
than those who don't. Those in agreement could be way less than 50% but higher in contracts which is more
likely.
The middle of the bell curve sees more contracts traded at X but its the moves well outside of the value area
or back to it that are most profitable. The trick as I'm pointing out is actually getting on them rather than
looking back in hindsight.

Maybe I'm missing your buy and sells?

Do you believe that without DOM and Profile you cannot be profitable trading Futures?
In a discretionary manner.


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## CanOz

Here's a profile build from this morning on the HSI, two nice profile build actually. Both results in tradeable breakouts....

Certainly could trade with volume profile and with out a DOM, but i can increase my win rate with order flow insight and i get a better visual with the profiles than a plain chart.

Happy to have a constructive discussion with you tech, but i'm not wasting my time with GB anymore.




Unwinding of shorts and establishment of new longs....


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## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Here's a profile build from this morning on the HSI, two nice profile build actually. Both results in traceable breakouts....
> 
> Certainly could trade with volume profile and with out a DOM, but i can increase my win rate with order flow insight and i get a better visual with the profiles than a plain chart.
> 
> Happy to have a constructive discussion with you tech, but i'm not wasting my time with GB anymore.
> 
> View attachment 87416




S, would a small video be a good idea if you've got capacity and the bother....so many nuances for the average viewer to take on and i think your data and technique would be too scientific from a jpeg-only point of view....just offering an idea of how to translate your well-worked regime into a lay persons grasp

enjoying the thread


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## tech/a

3 min Chart
30 minute Profiles?

Would enjoy that


CanOz said:


> Happy to have a constructive discussion with you tech,




Id like to delve a little deeper with you on M/P
Might be a bit disjointed as I'm at the office 7/5.30 ish

Like the Vid idea.


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## CanOz

Three session profile build today resulting in a 150 point short squeeze....was hoping this waited for Monday....This is the MHI


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## CanOz

I'd love to do a video, perhaps next week if trading on Monday is flat....


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## CanOz

A small trade to finished the week....after hours on the HSI as the ES broke down.


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## CanOz

Market profile strategies


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## CanOz

Linda Raschke


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## CanOz

Developing an edge...


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## peter2

Thank you. Very interesting presentation on the Mesch method using market profile. I hadn't seen that technique before. I'm disappointed that my software can't construct MP charts so that I may look at it on a variety of markets.


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## CanOz

Copper is in for an interesting week/month end. I believe there is a topping pattern in place and it looks "ripe", to steal a Meschism....


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## peter2

Yes, it's certainly intriguing as it's based on market auction theory and as we know, people do the same things over and over again creating these patterns.


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## CanOz

I guess an evolution might be better to look at....can do later. Might be interesting.

For a breakout of this value area I like to see some acceptance in that area of the blue box first. Sort of like a staging area....


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## CanOz

Having just started to trade the HKEX markets two days a week, i was keen to apply the edge development method that Peter Davies outlines in his webinar, posted above. I've had my eye on a volume impression chart and an entry technique based on order flow imbalances. So i decided to quantify the results of taking every signal, regardless of context, levels etc. Here are the first 50 results compiled over about 5 session, some trending and some rotational from last Monday until today. Not bad for no filtering, over 3 to 1 reward to risk. An acceptable win rate. These stats were gathered both live and back reviewing. I'll do some market replay this week as well. I'm having an indicator coded up that will spot the setup for me, then place a marker on the chart. Certainly looks worth pursuing.


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## CanOz

Exploring the same edge on the FDAX on last night's session yielded 25 trades. 
FDAX - 10 range - Trend Day
10 W
15 L
40% Wins
Avg. Win 24.5 points
Avg. Loss 6 points
Ratio 4.1:1
Total net points = 154.4
Largest Win = 59
Largest Loss = -7.5


----------



## peter2

I think we did a good job with the analysis of copper. There was a probe lower, not quite as low as the March low and this was bought. The daily bar ending with a long tail (close near the high). 
And then, woosh! Price is now near top of the range with the highest high at 3.35.
Unfortunately I didn't trade it but the Mesch method of using volume profiles is intriguing.


----------



## CanOz

Yeah i have just been focusing on the DAX and the HHI but i was keeping an eye on the HG Daily. I guess the key there was we knew buyers had to step in or stops would be hit and much lower prices to be seen. Explosive move though, would have been nice to have been around when it setup. I haven't trading commodities as much lately, i just wasn't getting the time at the right point in the sessions to get onto positions without getting shaken out...and Ninjatrader was just coping with keeping an eye on so many markets, just crashing all the time.

There were three opportunities in the Asian or Euro sessions to get in though...Notice how developed the value area was after it had more time to build.


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## CanOz

Well after switching platforms and developers i'm well on the road to developing a system based on Order Flow....This short video shows a remarkable winning streak on the FDAX by the latest iteration of the algo. Lots of work to do yet.


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## CanOz

Copper is headed towards an abyss


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## CanOz

The Abyss has been entered....target 2.86


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## CanOz

The Order Flow bot on the HSI today live (sim acct). I think i'd need to be collocated to get decent fills.

Tomorrow we'll be adding a filter based on activity in order to weed out poor trades in quiet times and maybe even reduce the need for multiple sessions.


----------



## Roller_1

Have you traded any of these systems live that you've had developed over the last few years CanOz? If so how have they gone?


----------



## CanOz

Roller_1 said:


> Have you traded any of these systems live that you've had developed over the last few years CanOz? If so how have they gone?




No, unfortunately I've always just stuck to trading discretionary because Ninja-trader wasn't cut out to handle intraday systems. I literally spent thousands and thousands on coding only to either lose it all or continually have issues with Ninjas stability. Now that I switched to Sierra chart i have been able to do many more things from a tick/flow point of view. Basically coding what i see on the DOM. Sierra can handle this easily and doesn't crash. Also, the developer i'm using is cheaper than Ninja and his turn around time is amazing. Having data for the HKEX is great too and its all supported by my SMSF broker. I plan to get this into a Machine Learning program at some stage and try to have it improve itself.

Having a stellar afternoon as well. Its a bit of an outlier of a day...


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## CanOz

Got to finish up for the day, here are the stats for today's run....I'll run it over last month and i'm sure it will fall apart on rotational days.


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## CanOz

An idea of what today was like on Honkers....


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## peter2

Good call on copper, it's into the abyss and still falling.


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## CanOz

My Algorithm has entered the 7th iteration now and i am now able to select ranges to trade in. For example if i prefer to trade the extremes of the prior days range rather than get caught in the chop of balance i can select the range to take the signals in. I can then set a threshold for the pace of trades so that i don't get caught in slow choppy markets. I'm something similar coded now so it will be easier to test, a context filter if you will.


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## CanOz

Anticipating a tight range today, we've got this Bot setup to trade longs above 12590 and shorts below 12484


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## Roller_1

Are you going to try and eventually get set up so your are not having any discretionary input into where/when your system is trading Canoz?


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## CanOz

Yeah that's the plan. Trying to quantify the context is challenging. I will say though that Sierra chart has many standard features that assist this process. Much of what I've done so far is built into Sierra already...

I started this process of more frequent systematic trading because i just don't have the time to sit in front of the screen and trade order flow. Hopefully, at least i'll be able to quantify a standard way of trading with auction market theory at the least.


----------



## scholesy

Gringotts Bank said:


> Probably there will be ease of movement in low volume areas, but that's way too hard to determine from a VAP chart.  There's just too many places you can set the interval, and when you change the interval, the whole landscape changes.  Personally I can't find a use for volume at price style charts.




Try doing volume profiles as the following:
1. The last 4 hours
2. The whole trading session
3. The last two trading sessions
4. The whole week
5. The last 2 weeks
6. The month
Etc

Then compare them by looking at High Volume Nodes and Low Volume Nodes. You will see how much confluence there is between the volume profiles across different time frames.


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## scholesy

CanOz said:


> An idea of what today was like on Honkers....




Really interesting stuff! What are the bands?


----------



## CanOz

I have the bands there as another filter, I don’t use them though.


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## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Anticipating a tight range today, we've got this Bot setup to trade longs above 12590 and shorts below 12484
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 88238




I'm not in this but have a look at that for a level....12590


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## CanOz

Todays HSI action was tempered by a large gap down...nonetheless we carved out some points on our walk forward. Lesson on large gaps down, get involved early, larger initial stop and tight trail...pace of trade critial to reduce churn.


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## scholesy

Jeez, that's quite a bit of dough!!


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## CanOz

Hkd scholesy!


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## scholesy

Oh lol! Still pretty impressive nonetheless


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## CanOz

walk forward Trade of the year....CL during the inventory announcement....I'm sure I'd need colocation to get these fills on a live account.


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## CanOz

View attachment 88503

	

		
			
		

		
	
 Not allot of time for updates lately, but plenty of testing had happened.

Briefly, I have been using my trade activity filter with a long average. Last week I changed this average after I realised it was not able to pick high periods of activity due to the period I set it too. I changed the average and conducted tests with the dax and saw a dramatic improvement in win% and the size of the winning trade. I started testing it on the hang seng and got similar results initially, but then the results dropped off just as dramatically. Then today I had a moment and it hit me, I realised the reason for the poorer results was contract roll. Because I use volume charts and the hang seng rolls every month, the volumes would be throwing false signals. So whilst I didn’t get time to confirm this, I know in reality I won’t be able to trade the last 5 days of the month into contract roll.

I may get to post more substantial test results tomorrow, as the kids are in daycare. We’re building a house now and just finished the colour selection process with the builder. Hopefully now that’s over I’ll have more time for research.

I’ll leave this with today’s dax trades.....a fine example of how to trade a rotational day.


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## CanOz

Nearly 4000 lines of code but we've got the ability to add up to three levels to trade now....


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## CanOz

Cool Ted talk....


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## CanOz

Two trades on the Dax last night, a couple on the ES which I've just setup.


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## CanOz

Massive trend day....


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## CanOz

I’ve set the dax up to trade right from the open today, long and short, with a wide atr trail. The hang seng sold off late last night so I set that up short only from the open in anticipation of an open drive. The dax though should price most of it into the gap....


----------



## lindsayf

CanOz said:


> I’ve set the dax up to trade right from the open today, long and short, with a wide atr trail. The hang seng sold off late last night so I set that up short only from the open in anticipation of an open drive. The dax though should price most of it into the gap....



Doing some interesting work there Canoz.


----------



## Roller_1

have you done historical back testing can? Or are you just doing all walk forward testing?


----------



## CanOz

Roller_1 said:


> have you done historical back testing can? Or are you just doing all walk forward testing?




Yes i have done months of back testing but not years. 

It was marginal when i first did it because of the usual suspects, noise, chop etc. So i'm walking forward and trying to write rules around the various scenarios such as opening in balance, out of balance, relative volume, initial balance range, average daily range,  etc., with a view to getting a context filter coded. Ideally i would like this to test out consistently profitable in out of sample data and walk forward on its own but yet be albe to see some benefit from human involvement, mostly around context or benefit from machine learning. 

Intra-day systems are notoriously difficult because of the range of conditions experienced, as you would know. None the less, if i as a human can adapt, then why can i not program the algorithm to adapt?. 

That makes sense?


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> I’ve set the dax up to trade right from the open today, long and short, with a wide atr trail. The hang seng sold off late last night so I set that up short only from the open in anticipation of an open drive. The dax though should price most of it into the gap....




The algorithm  traded the dax today as I have so many times when you can’t get the opening drive....kept buying the lows until one stuck....


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## CanOz

For the HSI today, I've left the algorithm trading long and short but with a 4 multiple on the atr instead of a 6, in anticipation of a choppy day in search of balance. I was tempted to only take shorts below the overnight high so we'll see how that would have worked out...


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## CanOz

Here's an example of what I need to work on. A day after a big trend day is usually very choppy as the market trades around in balance. It's easy enough to justify coding it out, just not trade at all. Wide ranging day, closing within 30% of the low/high, don't trade. Or I could set my trade activity filter to a higher threshold....I'm not going to avoid all chop but this one is the one I want to avoid the most right now.


----------



## CanOz

I think I may have found a solution to one of my problems with my system and in the process inadvertently solved another problem...I’ve created a trend filter based on the cumulative delta of bids vs asks, the narrow ribbon in the first panel. I’ll use it to enter new trades but also add to open trades...


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## CanOz

After considerable testing I've developed some rules to try and deal with the dynamics of intraday markets. These rules should allow the algorithm to perform at its optimum without trying to curve fit it. If these work well then I'll get them coded into a context filter. This would be the final phase of development.

Trading Rules - semi autonomous imbalance algorithm

Must set up just after the open:

Opening in the prior days value area requires:
1.) waiting until the initial balance period before trading, set trading start time
2.) tight trailing stop, low targets or only trade extremes of value, set stops or trade zones
3.) give back rule of 25 % then stop trading. Use a day stop of 3 consecutive full stop losses.

Opening outside of the prior days value area
1.) trade from the open, adjust trading start time
2.) wide trailing stop to capture larger swings, wider target, adjust atr multiple
3.) give back rule, day stop 4 consecutive full stop losses


If we open inside value and then breakout then adjust atr stop multiple to wider setting

Monitor trading throughout the session with remote access:

Use naked pocs as targets, tighten up trailing stop as price approaches, by adjusting atr multiple.


----------



## CanOz

Regarding the pace of trade filter, it is different on every market but generally it works well in all scenarios in the fdax. For the HSI it helps performance on balanced days whilst switching it off on trend days is beneficial.


----------



## CanOz

Got my trend filter coded up and have tested it on the last month of data. Significantly better performance and ready to add the pyramid option, which will add contracts up to maximum size as long as the trend filter permits.


----------



## peter2

@CanOz  I'm sensing an opportunity in copper again. Are we there yet? 
ie Are we near the bottom of a volume profile?


----------



## CanOz

I haven't been watching It to be honest. I've only had a few markets up whilst testing...I'm curious though and I'll try and check it out.


----------



## CanOz

The latest version of my imbalance algorithm, with an option to add contracts up to maximum size....


----------



## CanOz

Stellar day yesterday adding to max out the trend. Still testing.


----------



## CanOz

Dax now struggling to hold 12000....if I were free I would look for shorts


----------



## CanOz

FDAX looking toppy. Just shy of an outside day on Friday after a pretty good rally.

I'll be on my desk for a full 17 solid trading days, as the missus and kids have departed for Shangers today. Roll on Volatility!


----------



## CanOz

Other markets to watch this week:
Copper: Flag, potential upside yet?
GC: retested and ready to resume the trend lower?
CL: continuing the march towards 77.57 (BA)

AUD - Continuation lower
EUR - Need support for reverse H&S to come into play
JPY - Major support coming up at .8793


----------



## CanOz

The SPI with a bullish flag...people always underestimate the power of unlimited money, welcome to MMT folks, who would've known...


----------



## CanOz

The FDAX has, for all intents and purposes met its H&S target and retraced it again...levels are clear for bias.


----------



## CanOz

One thing is for CERTAIN. The ES must spend time in one of these zones before it can move anywhere now....the market must accept value now, unless MMT implies greater asset inflation...


----------



## peter2

I agree that the ES will most likely stay in your zone 1 for another year or two.
Dips into zone 2 will be buying opportunities.


----------



## CanOz

peter2 said:


> I agree that the ES will most likely stay in your zone 1 for another year or two.
> Dips into zone 2 will be buying opportunities.




Hi Peter, 
I like your thinking....Anything can happen, however for my context, 

Zone 2 more than 3 will remain a vacuum for the ES....in that once in that zone again and below 2443.75, we are likely to test the HVN of zone 3 (2025) as a minimum. 

I believe the Fed's stance can dictate the next move and there is no way equities will suffer if treasury yields are in the toilet....but for how long? Now is the time to watch Gold closely, as well as emerging markets for risk. After a decade of easy money this is where things come undone, get sticky...

Another good perspective on this is the Macrovoices podcast...


----------



## CanOz

Regarding Palladium, There is an out sized opportunity for the day trader here now that the trend is broken. We should expect better than normal volatility. PA must consolidate in one of the zones before moving remarkably again...plenty of intraday opps available now...long PA to 1396 and start thing of shorts there....worst case 1428 but still no long case is good, this bubble has burst.


----------



## lindsayf

CanOz said:


> View attachment 93458
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The SPI with a bullish flag...people always underestimate the power of unlimited money, welcome to MMT folks, who would've known...



MMT?


----------



## Joules MM1

good question



here's a better one  :


----------



## CanOz

Just bought my first UPS. Brisbanes storm season is a kettle less risky for me now...


----------



## CanOz

Screens all working....lots of tidy up left...


----------



## CanOz

Big screen TV installed too, audio visual nearly complete...


----------



## sptrawler

I love the 'cluttermatic' under the desk , you have way too much time on your hands.
It looks brilliant Canoz, great view.


----------



## CanOz

Thanks SP. Once I get some time I'm going to change the decor in the man cave....wish list is led lighting, sit stand desk, a wall mural (skin) and bifold doors


----------



## qldfrog

"wall mural (skin)"
Hopefully nothing sinister
A man cave  , not a dungeon


----------



## PZ99

Nothing wrong with a dungeon mate. LOL



CanOz said:


> View attachment 97251
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Screens all working....lots of tidy up left...



Nice work with Windows 8 

So my cave is still on Windows 1 - led lighting comes up as a star field when it's dark.
11m underground so getting a reliable internet signal is the challenge...
The plus side is free power and cool ambient temps.


----------



## CanOz

Nah the skin is like this :

My internet would be a challenge as but I have my patch panel in the garage, so I'll patch it on from the 4g in the upstairs retreat area by ethernet  able.


----------



## CanOz

Some long term Dax charts i posted to our facebook group tonight:
Longs to be challenged soon by a minor resistance area then a major area that is sure to have trapped longs....So longs until 12250, which may be a good place to take retests of a break targeting 12400 ish with initiating longs. 12400 and 12415 should have responsive sellers. Sentiment is still favouring a dovish Fed, global easing...recessionary indicators still printing. Short term levels to watch for retracements...






	

		
			
		

		
	
 ...


----------



## qldfrog

So long no see, all good @CanOz ?


----------

