# Tin and Lead - Best Base Metals for 2007



## BREND (7 January 2007)

Surprise that tin and lead are not mentioned. In my view, these are the 2 best base metals to invest in 2007.

*Tin:*

1. There is a hedge fund currently holds 50% - 79% of tin inventory at London Metal Exchange warehouses. Hedge fund don't buy the metal to use, what do they buy so much metal for? To squeeze the tin market, so that price can go up easier.

2. Chart shows that tin is still moving up a gradual uptrend.
See this link for tin chart: 
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2006/12/virtual-trade-15-dec-06.html

3. From the fundamental point of view, Indonesia government has not opened 20 tin smelters that it shut in October on allegations that they had used illegally mined ore. The closings have removed as much as 7000 mt a month of tin from the global market. And this issue will not be resolved within the next few months. 
Most of the tin supply comes from Indonesia, since Indonesia has a supply disruption, the global tin market will be affected. Demand for tin is still strong on strong semiconductor sector. Tin price will be pushed up.


*Lead:*

Looking from fundamental perceptive:
LME stocks had fallen to a very low level as producers are struggling to keep up with demand. This is resulted largely from the inability of Western producers to secure sufficient concentrates, principally reflecting China’s insatiable appetite for the metal.

China now has about 20 million cars and trucks, and this number is still increasing. A lot of people want to own cars in China. With more cars and trucks manufactured, there is a greater demand of lead for the batteries in the vehicles. Another great source of demand comes from solar chips, which is an emerging and growing sector now.

Looking from investment fund’s perceptive:
Currently one fund is holding 50% - 59% of Lead inventory; this fund may have interest to push the Lead price higher.

Looking from technical analysis perceptive:
Lead chart is showing a very good uptrend.

Chart of Lead price and inventory level are shown in the link:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/01/buy-3-lots-of-lead-virtual-trade.html


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## chops_a_must (7 January 2007)

Apart from BTX, does anyone know of any Tin pure plays?


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## MalteseBull (7 January 2007)

my tip for best base metal for 2007 is Iron Ore,

with Asian's infarstructure booming and the the upcoming Olympics in Beijing i have a firm belief iron will be in demand, although i am not following spot prices on it, there has recently been an approval for Iron ore producers in the Pilabira *sp* region of WA to use RIOs/BHPs train line, (think FMG won an approval)

other than that Uranium will be the biggest commodity for 2007 imo


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## michael_selway (7 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Apart from BTX, does anyone know of any Tin pure plays?




SHE?

thx

MS


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## BREND (8 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Apart from BTX, does anyone know of any Tin pure plays?




The biggest tin supplier is PT Timah listed in Indonesia. But I think the valuation is too steep now.


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## chops_a_must (8 January 2007)

BREND said:
			
		

> The biggest tin supplier is PT Timah listed in Indonesia. But I think the valuation is too steep now.



I meant on the ASX. I'm pretty sure MRE now own Greenbushes which produces a fair amount of tin, but they do other things as well, so I guess that doesn't count.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (8 January 2007)

Hi BREND,

Some excellent and very informative posting,

Thanks heaps,

Out of curiousity what porpotion of Zinc and Nickel Inventory do these Funds hold?


Cheers


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## BREND (8 January 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Hi BREND,
> 
> Some excellent and very informative posting,
> 
> ...




Thanks. I do not information about the funds with regards to their weightage.


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## BREND (8 January 2007)

*Why demand for tin has increased? * 

Tin had replaced lead in manufacturing of solder, this rises tin demand over a short period of time.  

Getting the lead out

On 1 July, the European Union will begin to strictly limit the amount of lead and other hazardous materials found in electronic circuitry. To meet this deadline, manufacturers selling products in the EU must find a suitable replacement for lead in the soldering material that holds all these circuits in place. Scientists at Ames Laboratory in Iowa developed a less durable replacement in 1996, but recent research may have strengthened the lead-free alloy.

Because of its versatility, lead has been used in everything from paint to plumbing to gasoline, but research in the late 1970s found that chronic exposure to lead can lead to debilitating brain damage. Many countries banned lead, first in paints and later in gasoline.

The metal is still widely used, particularly in electronics. Traditional solder, which holds components on circuit boards and bonds other electrical connections, is composed of tin and lead. A solder blend of 63 percent tin and 37 percent lead results in what is known as an eutectic alloy, which means that it acts like a pure metal with a single melting and solidification point.

Ames Laboratory, a U.S. Department of Energy lab run by Iowa State University, developed a tin-silver-copper alloy ten years ago. The alloy offered a lower melting temperature and greater strength than did others, according to Iver Anderson, the lab's senior metallurgist. However, until the EU passed the restrictions on lead in electronic equipment and a similar initiative moved forward in Japan, few manufacturers expressed interest in the alloy.

A critical problem is that most lead-free alternatives such as the tin-silver-copper alloy tend to grow brittle over time after repeated or prolonged heating cycles. "Even the circuitry in your cell phone operates at about 125 degrees Centigrade, and over six months' use, that can mean several hundred hours of high temperatures," says Anderson. At that point, he says, the solder joints may have become more brittle and therefore easier to break.

To combat this problem, Anderson's group has been studying other additives. A tin-silver-copper-zinc alloy seems to be the most promising, but additional testing is needed.

http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/


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## Beethoven (8 January 2007)

BREND said:
			
		

> *Why demand for tin has increased? *
> 
> Tin had replaced lead in manufacturing of solder, this rises tin demand over a short period of time.
> 
> ...




I know that most assembling plants are now going towards lead free electronics using lead-free machines and solder however correct me if i'm wrong but isnt this bad for lead in this case and good for tin???   Also i'm not too sure about lead being the base metal for 2007 as well because there is concern about it being in landfills, contaminating land and the water.


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## BREND (8 January 2007)

Beethoven said:
			
		

> I know that most assembling plants are now going towards lead free electronics using lead-free machines and solder however correct me if i'm wrong but isnt this bad for lead in this case and good for tin???




Correct. This is good for tin, and bad for lead in this perspect.

But demand for lead used for batteries is still very high, and growing in China. And new supply of lead comes in very slowly, as lead is poisonous in nature. So lead will continue to be in deficit for years to come.


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## Knobby22 (8 January 2007)

Tin is so common. I would hesitate before investing in it.
There is a pure tin company in the ASX but I'm sorry I have forgotten its name.


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## BREND (9 January 2007)

Knobby22 said:
			
		

> Tin is so common. I would hesitate before investing in it.
> There is a pure tin company in the ASX but I'm sorry I have forgotten its name.




Tin is so common? One of my client who is a tin supplier said hard to find tin in the physical market now. Most of the supply comes from Indonesia, Indonesia has a supply disruption now.


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## BREND (19 January 2007)

I'm right about tin, at least for now. Tin price is now $11300, backwardation doubled last night to $121. I believe tin still has a lot of upside.

Did a virtual trade of tin in my blog:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/


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## Dukey (19 January 2007)

Tin looks nice just now but nowhere to invest??

Renison Bell (TAS) - closed 2003 after mine deaths,

Ardlethan (NSW) - closed 2004 due to lack of cash and resources.

Malachite resources has Elsmore (NSW) and a farm-in to Mt Ramsay (Tas). But not producing yet ...  link here

??????????


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## richmond (20 January 2007)

Hi Dukey - Stonehenge Metals (SHE) might be worth having a look at - they've got a mine at Granville East in Tassie which they bought off a couple of brothers who didn't have the capital to take it further - they're currently doing extensive drilling to see how big the deposit is - they also have some ground next to AGM's Avebury nickel deposit where they'll drill later this year. Go to their website - well worth a read.

Cheers
r


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## BREND (23 January 2007)

Tin price risen to $11,600 / $11,700 today.


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## BREND (25 January 2007)

My winning trades on
Lead:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/01/40-profit-on-lead-trade.html
and Tin:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/01/83-profit-on-tin-trade.html


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## michael_selway (25 January 2007)

richmond said:
			
		

> Hi Dukey - Stonehenge Metals (SHE) might be worth having a look at - they've got a mine at Granville East in Tassie which they bought off a couple of brothers who didn't have the capital to take it further - they're currently doing extensive drilling to see how big the deposit is - they also have some ground next to AGM's Avebury nickel deposit where they'll drill later this year. Go to their website - well worth a read.
> 
> Cheers
> r




MLX & SHE

thx

MS


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## PureCoco (25 January 2007)

WMT in Tasmania have drill results and and with a view to mining and processing options.


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## exgeo (25 January 2007)

Metals X (MLX) are currently producing tin from a mine in QLD and shortly may have 3 producing mines, with the addition (re-start) of Renison and Mt Bischoff in Tas. Have a look at the MLX thread.


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## PureCoco (25 January 2007)

Thanks exgeo, I've had it on a watch list for awhile with interest.


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## BREND (20 February 2007)

Lead rose to a record in London after production was disrupted at a U.K. refinery operated by Swiss miner Xstrata Plc and stockpiles of the metal declined. 

Xstrata maintained ``force majeure'' at its Northfleet plant after ore supplies from Australia were delayed following a cyclone last month. Force majeure is a legal clause that allows a company to default on a sales contract due to circumstances beyond its control. 

Inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell by 825 metric tons to 32,475 tons, the lowest since June, 2005, the LME said in a daily report. 

``The Xstrata news has had an impact because it's not a very liquid market and it doesn't take much buying to drive the price,'' Michael Jansen, a London-based strategist at JPMorgan Securities Ltd. said by telephone. 

Lead for delivery in three months on the LME rose $25, or 1.4 percent, to a record $1,810 a ton as of 12:38 p.m. local time. It has gained 8.7 percent this year. 

Copper was little changed amid signs of improved demand from Chinese buyers ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday period. Markets in China, the world's largest consumer of the metal used in pipes and wires, are closed and will reopen on Feb. 26. 

Imports of copper and copper products jumped 44 percent in January from a year earlier, customs data showed on Feb. 12. Chinese refined-copper imports in January were about 132,000 tons, almost double the average monthly imports of 69,000 tons recorded in 2006, Macquarie Bank Ltd. said in a report today. 

Copper was unchanged at $5,810 a ton. 

Among other LME-traded metals, tin gained $105 to $13,250, close to its 17-year high of $13,300 recorded on Feb. 16. Zinc advanced $30, or 0.9 percent, to $3,410, nickel fell $25 to $38,875 and aluminum dropped $5 to $2,790. 

_Lead has low inventory level, any supply disruption will push the price up easily._

_I mentioned in the early part of 2007 that tin and lead are my top picks for metals. Today their price had risen so much_!


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## kransky (20 February 2007)

BREND said:
			
		

> Imports of copper and copper products jumped 44 percent in January from a year earlier, customs data showed on Feb. 12. Chinese refined-copper imports in January were about 132,000 tons, almost double the average monthly imports of 69,000 tons recorded in 2006, Macquarie Bank Ltd. said in a report today.




sounds pretty bullish for copper despite large stockpiles!?


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## BREND (20 February 2007)

kransky said:
			
		

> sounds pretty bullish for copper despite large stockpiles!?




I'm not that bullish actually.


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