# SUN - Suncorp Group



## mmmmining (18 January 2007)

Cannot find any posting about SUN.

I am start looking for undervalued stocks outside energy and resources to balance my extremely unbalanced portfolio. I found a few. One of them is SUN. 

Mix of bank and insurance business with PE at 13. The cheapest amount both bank and insurance sector. Could be a good takeover target too in the increasingly buyout environment. Let's see...


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 January 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

SUN is a core stock for any Queenslander. I have accumulated this stock since its listing, buying on weakness in the AXO. It seems overpriced at present but who knows? Technically its behaving, higher highs and higher lows. The takeover of PMN is all too complicated for me. Possibility of further t/o activity. Its a political stock so any spectacular activity would need to be approved by politicians.
Garpal Gumnut


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## mmmmining (25 January 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

SUN crossed $22 first time in three months. Financial stocks are back. But SUN is still the cheapest one. I still believe this is the stock to park your hard earned resources money just in case.


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 February 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> SUN crossed $22 first time in three months. Financial stocks are back. But SUN is still the cheapest one. I still believe this is the stock to park your hard earned resources money just in case.




Any fundamentalists have ideas on SUN post merger with Promina. Is it a goer on the figures. I get confused at the checkout at Woolies, stressing over which way to put he credit card in, so have no hope of reading financial reorts p/e's , accruals etc.etc. Basically I'd like to know if it is likely that they won't go broke. If they do well the share price will increase, if they don't, and don't go broke they'll get taken over. If they go broke I'll lose. The charts can't help me on this so any numbers gals or guys out there please help me out.     Garpal


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## mime (12 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Trading halt is on SUN. Where to from here?


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## Warren Buffet II (13 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



			
				mime said:
			
		

> Trading halt is on SUN. Where to from here?




Trading halt is due to the merge with Promina. The federal court has accepted the merge proposal and they will proceed with it this week. SUN will be out of the trading halt on Friday and Promina shareholders will receive SUN shares by then.

WBII


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## Julia (13 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Existing shareholders are apparently to be offered a fairly well discounted price on new shares.

I held SUN for a few years but sold it on the Promina news and haven't regretted it so far.

Julia


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## Warren Buffet II (13 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> Existing shareholders are apparently to be offered a fairly well discounted price on new shares.
> 
> I held SUN for a few years but sold it on the Promina news and haven't regretted it so far.
> 
> Julia




SUN is offering new shares ot existing shareholders @ 27% discount. It is a juicy discount and I am sure I will be taking part of it.

WBII


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## mime (14 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Do you guys think it's a good thing for the stock price? Do you guys think the trading halt has saved SUN from the major fall on the market today or the fall will catch up with the stock?


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## coyotte (14 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



			
				mime said:
			
		

> Do you guys think it's a good thing for the stock price? Do you guys think the trading halt has saved SUN from the major fall on the market today or the fall will catch up with the stock?





Kicking myself for not taking a bigger SHORT last week


Cheers


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## Garpal Gumnut (14 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



			
				mime said:
			
		

> Do you guys think it's a good thing for the stock price? Do you guys think the trading halt has saved SUN from the major fall on the market today or the fall will catch up with the stock?




Dear Mime,

You and all your family will from this day henceforth be paupers and dependent on the queue at DSS with the local Ice wholesalers and retailers.

Seriously though, grab a coin and flip it, heads the market will go up, tails down.  Nobody knows. Basic charts on ASX and o'seas indices indicate a downward trend beginning.

If you are a short term investor I'd suggest getting out. A medium term i.e less than 6 month view get out. Long term debatable, I'd suggest stay in as this is a minor correction in the the long term. SUN I hold , and have since listing. Also Promina. I'll hold and accumulate unless market tanks +++ in next few weeks.

ASX is way well above due a correction on long term charts.

Garpal


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## YELNATS (14 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



			
				mime said:
			
		

> Do you guys think it's a good thing for the stock price? Do you guys think the trading halt has saved SUN from the major fall on the market today or the fall will catch up with the stock?




Maybe there will be a short term fall in SUN after the trading halt ends. I held PMN, so I will get some SUN shares. If SUN falls a bit, I'll take the buying opportunity. Long term, with the Promina and GIO businesses, plus their own core banking, plus a healthy dividend yield 100% franked, it should be a winner.
regards. YN.


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## Warren Buffet II (15 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



			
				mime said:
			
		

> Do you guys think it's a good thing for the stock price? Do you guys think the trading halt has saved SUN from the major fall on the market today or the fall will catch up with the stock?




Hi Mime,

That is a very good question that I have been thinking about for the last 4 weeks.

There are 2 scenarios IMO:

1) Price drop due to the extra number of shares available, Promina shareholders selling and those who bought to get the new discounted shares

2) Price holds as the company is much larger now and will get a higher weight in the indexes.

I guess tomorrow we will see a drop until the share price stabilize.

WBII


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## mime (15 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

So you guys believe it will drop sharply on Fri?


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## mime (16 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Hey guys.

Anyone know what ratio of discounted units can be purchased? I thought it said 2:15 can anyone confirm?

P.S it look like SUN may have dodged the sharp fall because of the trading halt.


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## tybutler (16 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Yeah - it's 2 for 15 at $15.50 each...

Ty.


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



			
				mime said:
			
		

> So you guys believe it will drop sharply on Fri?




Taking into account it is ex entitlement, 2:15 , Sun close on Friday at 21.25 is a sign that the price will not fall, and may rise post merger. 

I note brokers are bullish on Sun after trading halt.

Garpal


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## mmmmining (28 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Taking into account it is ex entitlement, 2:15 , Sun close on Friday at 21.25 is a sign that the price will not fall, and may rise post merger.
> 
> I note brokers are bullish on Sun after trading halt.
> 
> Garpal




Grapal, I have not received the form. When did you receive it? Thanks.


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## makeorbreak (28 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I cannot seem to find it anywhere...

Does anyone know the true value promina shareholders were given for the takeover?

I thought it was $7.60. And if that is the case, whats the breakeven price for suncorp shares (now that it has dropped)?


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## questionall_42 (28 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Anyone know the cost basis for us new SUN ex-PMN shareholders?


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## tybutler (29 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



mmmmining said:


> Grapal, I have not received the form. When did you receive it? Thanks.




You can get a personalized entitlement form off the Link Registry website - just enter your HIN and then print it out.

Ty.


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## mmmmining (29 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



tybutler said:


> You can get a personalized entitlement form off the Link Registry website - just enter your HIN and then print it out.
> 
> Ty.




Ty, thank you very much. You save me a lot of time.


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## Warren Buffet II (29 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



questionall_42 said:


> Anyone know the cost basis for us new SUN ex-PMN shareholders?




There are 2 cost bases for that calculation:

1) Cost Base of Promina Shares Exchanged

=Number of Shares * Promina Acquisition Share Price

This is the basic Promina acquisition base value and depends how much you paid for them and you need to reduce your Promina Acquisition Share Price
with the Promina capital returns (check the prospectus for details)

2) Cost Base for Suncorp Shares Received
= Cost Base of Promina Shares Exchanged - (Cash Consideration Received/(Cash Consideration Received+Market Value of Suncorp Shares Received))*Cost Base of Promina Shares Exchanged

Now, this cost base will be used once you sell your new SUN shares for CGT purposes. You should know all the values but an important one is the Market Value of Suncorp Shares Received (which I am assumming is the closing price @19/03 as the implementation was 20/03 = $21.55, anyone can confirm this?)

WBII


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## AnalysisParalysis (31 March 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

In plain English, could someone please help me here. This merger, what is the effect on sp, compared to a takeover. In other words, if Sun were taking over Pmn, the sp would drop. If I were trading SUN at the moment, how is this merger affecting the sp? Thanks sincerely.


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## FinalFantasy (15 June 2007)

*SUN - Suncorp Metway*

Anyone know howcome this share has dropped quite a bit recently??
Is it because of excessive insurance, storm claims lately?????


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## alphman (15 June 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp Metway*



FinalFantasy said:


> Anyone know howcome this share has dropped quite a bit recently??
> Is it because of excessive insurance, storm claims lately?????




Yes, I would say that this is the main contributing factor.  IAG is down as well so no big surprises there.


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## vicb (16 July 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

First time I have posted a chart so will see how I go
Increased volume and a break in the downwards trend line seems to point to a move from downwards momentum.
Plus a dividend should be on the horizon which should see it push back up over the $21 mark.


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## DionM (22 November 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

SUN is hovering below $19/share.  With a nice dividend yield and a reasonable P/E ratio, it seems to be one of the better value banks?

I guess the only question is how well with the Promina integration work.


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## alphman (22 November 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

SUN was covered in Intersuisse's morning notes earlier in the week (attached) with an "accumulate" recommendation.


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## Ken (22 November 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Merrill Lynch listed as MER seems to be even better value....

It has been hammered in the US. Its worth noting that the major US banks have lost a lot more than the Aussie banks....

Bank of America, Citigroup, Meriill, JP Morgan, are all well done...

Suncorp I think they are undervalued.  Dont particularly like their business.


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## aaronphetamine (22 November 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I am employed by Suncorp Metway and id like the opportunity to own shares in the company which i work for. Their share price hasnt been too flash this year alright, but from what i see is that it bottoms out around the 18dollar mark.

According to our staff magizines the promina merge is going well, and I still dont really understand why the market sentiment towards it was so negative (never really bothered to find out why)

I am seriously thinking of buying some shares at this price (not too many) and just let them sit there for the next year, but having said that their price movements comparted to other banks and insurers recently, hasnt been that flash. I mean, say from the august correction to 1st of nov.. nearly all the banks would have been better performers.


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## vishalt (22 November 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Because this market is mostly dominated by a bunch of hack-speculators who push up shares with weak or no fundamentals (hi Fortescue, how's your iron ore?) rather than things that make record profits and have solid foundations (hello Wesfarmers, Virgin Blue, Suncorp)


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## DionM (20 December 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Continuing it's downward spiral.  Not helped by Centro fallout, and now a large insurance claim.

Still, at under $17, it's quite cheap for one of the bigger banks?  Thinking of topping up.


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## vishalt (20 December 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



DionM said:


> Continuing it's downward spiral.  Not helped by Centro fallout, and now a large insurance claim.
> 
> Still, at under $17, it's quite cheap for one of the bigger banks?  Thinking of topping up.



There were some rumours of a merger with Suncorp and St. George which sounds logical (Suncorp would add a whole insurance arm to St. George and a significant banking clientelle + brands). 

Suncorp is terrible slow but a company that makes record profits none the less, but a shame that the share price won't reflect this 

I also have a friend who I meet regularly for lunch who works at Suncorp, she says the Promina merger is going well and that Scorp just print money out


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 December 2007)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



DionM said:


> Continuing it's downward spiral.  Not helped by Centro fallout, and now a large insurance claim.
> 
> Still, at under $17, it's quite cheap for one of the bigger banks?  Thinking of topping up.




Thanks Dion,

SUN is a funny share given to large retracements, but thus far has been very good to holders who stay in for the long haul. Mrs Gumnut got in at $4 or something like that. I've been in at $8 and $12 and again got more via my Promina holdings at $15.50 or thereabouts.

Its exposed to the vagaries of the weather and the financial climate, sharemarket and banks. 

I enclose a monthly chart back to 1997.

I'm very overweight in it but feel it will find support at $15 or therabouts, as you can see this will be between the 50 and 61.8 retracement from the recent highs to the most recent major low back in 2003. , and was also a resistance point in 2001.

If it pokes below that I might be tempted to buy more , but its a lazy share and I've found it best to get in in the past after its been in a trading range for a while and starts to move up to the top of that range, rather than try to pick bottoms.

I wouldn't have a clue whether they all make money behind closed doors, crap themselves about trying to integrate the Promina systems with theirs, or play suduko all day.

I tend to ignore talk from folk who work in insurance companies as they are usually the last to know its going down the gurgler, HIH comes to mind.

Heres the chart





Enclosed is the chart


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## AnDy62 (15 January 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Currently at 15.60. Seems very cheap to me. Anyone buying or thinking of doing so? Prophets seem to think the worst is behind them. Great dividend too 7% FF. One to think about IMO


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## ROE (22 January 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I bought in today for $14.70
maybe in get in too soon close at $14.17 

if wall st close lower, a couple more hundred points could hit us soon


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## 56gsa (6 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

reasons to be cheerful part 3

the merger / take over potential 
the dividend yield (over 7% on FY09 forecast)
the recent consolidation pattern


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## treefrog (6 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

could this be influencing some??

FORECAST EARNINGS TREND
Have the analysts been upgrading or downgrading their forecasts over the last 3 months?


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## ROE (6 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

All Business going through a bad phrase at some stage in their life, some once,
some many times but as long as you can understand their business
and have confident it will come back then it's a prime time to buy these business as it's the cheapest oppotunity for you to buy.

at any other time it trades at fair value or over value and the only way is down  .. look at all the market darlings like CBA, WOW, MacBank where they trades at all time high last year, how much further can they really go? the only way is down for these guys.


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## AnDy62 (22 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Bought in today at 15.04. Looking at the chart, I think support has been found around $15, give or take some. Combined with over 7% ff yield, with interim dividend in a week or so, I think longer term it should be a decent buy. Also encouraged by strong number of buyers


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## ROE (22 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



AnDy62 said:


> Bought in today at 15.04. Looking at the chart, I think support has been found around $15, give or take some. Combined with over 7% ff yield, with interim dividend in a week or so, I think longer term it should be a decent buy. Also encouraged by strong number of buyers




I don't think it will go below $15 unless some real bad news comes out.
if they can save and on tract with the Promina merger and the signs ok so far there is potential for this guys to make some good money.

I think SUN is an unlove stock right now, it will be love again once it show investors the money


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## So_Cynical (22 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Hello...Intra day lows of below $15 on 3 of the last 6 trading days...including today.

U guys buying at market?


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## AnDy62 (23 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I was planning to get them at a touch under $15 (aware of that fact), but I had to work at 4 yesterday so I amended so that I could get on board before the weekend. Btw, hopefully there will be an increase of buyers before the divy which might help the s.p a bit in the very short term. For a long term buy, I don't think you can go wrong with the current price/dividend .


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## AnDy62 (26 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

These latest storms will only send the price one way... 

How much bad luck can SUN have? Well, I think they have capped their exposure (for claims in wild weather) for the rest of the year so the damage won't be too bad. 15m well spent.


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## ROE (26 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



AnDy62 said:


> These latest storms will only send the price one way...
> 
> How much bad luck can SUN have? Well, I think they have capped their exposure (for claims in wild weather) for the rest of the year so the damage won't be too bad. 15m well spent.




It actually good for SUN, they capped paid out and once they paid out watch those premium coming back at next insurance renewal


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## ROE (28 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Good day to buy SUN stock I just load up another 1300 shares 

I own SUN stock and I'm pro SUN so Do your own research.


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## doctorj (28 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ROE said:


> It actually good for SUN, they capped paid out and once they paid out watch those premium coming back at next insurance renewal



It's not all cheesecake and french champagne - the increased premiums will come hand in hand with increased reinsurance premiums and probably reduced exchange commission.


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## ROE (28 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



doctorj said:


> It's not all cheesecake and french champagne - the increased premiums will come hand in hand with increased reinsurance premiums and probably reduced exchange commission.




That is quiet ok, higher payout command higher premium and that the insurance risk and even reinsurance premium is higher, you can still pocket a higher premium from the chain and if it'd down right too risky don't insurance them.

QBE and various other insurers already flag that the current margin is too low and they need to rise it else they wont insure you.

So you can either take the risk and not insure on the extra and face the possibility of lose everything if sh*t happen or come up with the extra few bucks


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## blinkau (28 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Suncorp just keeps getting cheaper! The yield looks great as well. Might have to pickup a bit tomorrow but I think if I keep putting on anymore orders at work they are going to shoot me. I wonder if we will see below $13 soon if the dow slides down over a few nights


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## So_Cynical (28 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

SUN got too cheap for me today...got in at 14.45

Just cant see SUN going under $14 but ive been wrong before...its a crazy market.


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## Julia (28 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I'm interested to know why those buying are doing so at present.
We are far from finished with the storm season and things could well get worse for SUN.

Just looking at the SP performance over the last few years, it has hardly been great!

I bought it early 2004 at $13 and sold when it flattened out fairly early 2006 at just under $21.  Since then it hasn't really done anything.

Aren't there other great companies out there which have turned in a far better performance during the last few years?


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## So_Cynical (28 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Julia said:


> I'm interested to know why those buying are doing so at present.
> We are far from finished with the storm season and things could well get worse for SUN.
> 
> Just looking at the SP performance over the last few years, it has hardly been great!
> ...




Why buy in?....I'm Hoping for a repeat performance.



Julia said:


> Aren't there other great company's  out there which have turned in a far better performance during the last few years?




MON perhaps?

But seriously...the SUN SP seems to have more resilience than the other banks/insurance 
company's...buying low risk, blue chips at 3 and a half year lows, has to be good buying.IMO


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## Bill M (28 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Julia said:


> I'm interested to know why those buying are doing so at present.
> We are far from finished with the storm season and things could well get worse for SUN.




Well Julia I bought today too. I sold SUN 4 years ago for the price I bought it today. In a couple of days it goes ex div and it is a 7% FF Div which equates to 10% grossed up.

I can not get 10% anywhere in the market right now anywhere. This dividend is guaranteed aready.

I know nobody should chase a dividend, however we have a great company with good a banking business and a good insurance business that has be sold off to the tune of 35% from it's highs. There has been too much GLOOM AND DOOM factored into the share price of this great company. If the price of SUN was $16 I wouldn't touch em but for $14 it's a steal. Don't worry too much about the storms, storms come and and go be we are all still here needing insurance.

As a long term investor with a long term outlook I ask myself "what price will SUN be in 5 years time"? It will be no where near todays lows of $14. SUN can and will prosper, I have no doubt and in the mean time I will collect my 7% FF Dividends that has already been declared. Buy in Gloom sell in Boom and you will be ok.


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## ROE (29 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Julia said:


> I'm interested to know why those buying are doing so at present.
> We are far from finished with the storm season and things could well get worse for SUN.
> 
> Just looking at the SP performance over the last few years, it has hardly been great!
> ...




I'm buying and if it drop today again I'm buying some more 
I done my home work with SUN and not buying a good stock on what if
"more storms, more claims" is bad decision you may regret.

Insurance is not only SUN business ..they have banking arms, investment arms, fund management arm, share trading platform, property (Hope Island), and to my surprise own LJ hooker when I did my research  The list just goes on ...


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## Julia (29 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Bill M said:


> Well Julia I bought today too. I sold SUN 4 years ago for the price I bought it today. In a couple of days it goes ex div and it is a 7% FF Div which equates to 10% grossed up.
> 
> I can not get 10% anywhere in the market right now anywhere. This dividend is guaranteed aready.



Yes, the dividend is good, so if that's your reason for buying it, I'd agree.
Beats bank interest.


> There has been too much GLOOM AND DOOM factored into the share price of this great company. If the price of SUN was $16 I wouldn't touch em but for $14 it's a steal. Don't worry too much about the storms, storms come and and go be we are all still here needing insurance.



Perhaps.  But if market sentiment is doom and gloom, then belief in what a good company it is isn't going to push the SP up.  I genuinely hope it does get better, but personally I'd just prefer to wait until I see an uptrend established.  Here's the shareholder return for the last ten years:

1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr 
-30.8% -3.2% 13.1% 13.2% 
 Sure, few companies are going to have a good figure for 1 Yr at present, but historically it's not that great compared to many others.







> As a long term investor with a long term outlook I ask myself "what price will SUN be in 5 years time"? It will be no where near todays lows of $14. SUN can and will prosper, I have no doubt and in the mean time I will collect my 7% FF Dividends that has already been declared. Buy in Gloom sell in Boom and you will be ok.



Yep, just that SUN hasn't done too much of the 'boom" in the last couple of years.   Compare with, just as an example, CPB and MND.

Good luck.  Do hope it picks up soon and that you've managed to pick the bottom.


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## YELNATS (29 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I only hold SUN by virtue of having them allocated to me when they took over Promina, as I was a Promina holder.

Promina was going great guns until the takeover, and SUN haven't done much good since then.

I only hope that SUN can turn their act around soon.


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## qr2007 (29 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Hi Friends,

How do you compare SUN and QBE? which one is better investment? I know the SPs are diff. but the return?

I have a bit of cash which I want to invest but not sure which one to put money in?

Thanks.


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## ROE (29 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



qr2007 said:


> Hi Friends,
> 
> How do you compare SUN and QBE? which one is better investment? I know the SPs are diff. but the return?
> 
> ...





You got to have a bit of understanding on what you buy..better teach yourself before getting a high risk stock market.

Both sun and qbe run insurance business and it hasn't been hammer lately by bigger claims and lower margin the other nasty beast is IAG which 68% drop in profit came out today.

so for you to buy in either stock you have to have confident that these business can turn around and make more money in the future. 

and what if you buy say qbe and sun and it drop another 10% would you have the nerve to right it out ?


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## qr2007 (29 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ROE said:


> You got to have a bit of understanding on what you buy..better teach yourself before getting a high risk stock market.
> 
> Both sun and qbe run insurance business and it hasn't been hammer lately by bigger claims and lower margin the other nasty beast is IAG which 68% drop in profit came out today.
> 
> ...




Hi Roe,

Thank you for your advice. I know they are both Insurance Business. I did some research on these two and they are similar but it seems the mgt of QBE is better than SUN, however SUN is more diversify business than QBE. That is why I am not sure which one to pick???

Not sure if my research is 100% right.

I will do stop loss if it dropped further 10%...

Thanks.


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## Julia (29 February 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Here's editorial comment on SUN from FNArena below.

Another negative factor influencing this company is its loans to AFG and MFS.

"Suncorp Result Raises Serious Questions
FN Arena News - February 29 2008 

By Chris Shaw

Given the company had previously outlined how recent storms would impact on its insurance earnings it is little surprise Suncorp-Metway (SUN) has delivered a profit result broadly in line with market expectations, at least in terms of headline numbers.

But looking deeper into the result gave both Citi and Macquarie reason to be less than positive on the group's outlook, both brokers downgrading the stock to Hold from Buy following further analysis of the released figures. For Macquarie the downgrade comes despite minor increases to earnings forecasts as it expects the market will look more closely at the banking division's outlook and possibly see a few things it doesn't like, particularly with respect to provisioning for bad debts and lower consumer credit quality.

Citi has taken a somewhat different approach in reaching a similar decision, focusing on the insurance division and lowering its forecasts both here and for the group overall to reflect expectations of lower reserve releases going forward. The other issue in the broker's view is the bank's need for capital, as evidenced by the decision to underwrite the dividend reinvestment plan.

Macquarie too notes this and points out management has indicated Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital requirements will likely see hybrid securities issued in coming months. Merrill Lynch expects the rate of reserve increases will slow going forward, it and UBS expecting margins to come under pressure as a result and for this to highlight the need for a capital raising of some kind.

The problem according to Merrills is the need for capital raisings comes at a difficult time in terms of the underlying market environment and the weak share price, so it is little surprise the stock is under pressure.

Having said that the broker argues the share price reaction to the result was too severe as it made only minor changes to forecasts and these don't justify the near 8% drop in the stock that followed the result. But UBS has lowered its earnings estimates by 10-11% post the announcement, so the share price reaction may reflect some catching up of market expectations.

In terms of earnings forecasts going forward UBS now has earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 91c for FY08 and 113c for FY09, while Merrills is forecasting 87c and 132c and Macquarie is at 107c and 157c respectively in terms of adjusted EPS. Thomson One Analytics shows median EPS estimates of 117c and 153c.

While only Macquarie and Citi adjusted ratings post the result price targets have been more widely adjusted, Credit Suisse dropping its target to $20.00 from $23.50 and UBS to $15.00 from $18.00. This brings down the average price target in the FNArena database to $17.99 from $18.87, ABN Amro still leading with its target of $21.35. It is worth noting the broker is yet to update its view post the profit result. Thomson One has a median price target on the shares of $18.00.

The database shows the stock is now rated as Buy four times, Hold five times and Underperform once, this by JP Morgan who simply sees too many issues surrounding the stock given the uncertain economic and financial market conditions, downside risk in insurance rates and the likely amount of reserve releases.

Shares in Suncorp-Metway today have continued their slide in line with a weak overall market and as at 11.50am were down 22c to $14.09."






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## Bill M (1 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Julia said:


> Good luck.  Do hope it picks up soon and that you've managed to pick the bottom.




Thank you for your well presented opinion. I hope you do well with your investments too, we are all here for the same thing, to make money. Cheers


----------



## ROE (1 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Actually SUN mentioned not once but several times, their earning going forward will be impacted by bad debts so I think they are fairly honest about their position and I'm fairly happy with their disclosure on claims and thing.

There could be more down side but at this price it's really hard to pick where the bottom is..... I just go with what I know lock it in 

Trading below $12 someone maybe make a hostile take over of $15 bucks


----------



## So_Cynical (1 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Lets face it...anyone buying at the moment is bottom picking...(trying to pick the bottom)

I brought into SUN at 14.45 *28/02/08* so clearly missed the current bottom of 13.90.

Time will tell whats the real bottom...im still happy with a buy under 14.50
med/long term im sure ill do ok....still a little pissed off i didn't wait 1 day longer.:aufreg:


----------



## AnDy62 (2 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



So_Cynical said:


> Lets face it...anyone buying at the moment is bottom picking...(trying to pick the bottom)
> 
> I brought into SUN at 14.45 *28/02/08* so clearly missed the current bottom of 13.90.
> 
> ...




I know the feeling sir. But unfortunately, there will be worse to come on Monday- I hate to think, and then Tues when SUN goes ex-dividend, declaring a healthy 52c dividend. But hey, the silver lining, DRP at these prices is very welcome.


----------



## chilliaa (2 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

If its any consolation i bought in late last year at $17.5
Also bought IAG at $4.90 last year and doubled up at $3.55.
With QBE dropping so much im thinking of selling half of AIG and putting it into QBE.


----------



## kerosam (2 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

thought i'll share my thots if they are worth anything. 

with this global economical climate & volatility, the markets are very sensitive to bad news & the very first industry that gets hit is the banking & finance industry. I think we would all agree that the dust has not settled regrading credit crunch. are we not still seeing flow of bad news that so-and-so banks are writing down $x of debts etc? With the DOW down over 300 pts last week, IMHO, our big four & investment banks are lined up for some smashing come tuesday... anyone seeing a silver lining close by? :

what i'm saying is, is there logic to buy banks, insurance companies, financial services companies in this climate?


----------



## Julia (2 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Before deciding that SUN is 'a bargain', it might be helpful to read the following from Airreview:

http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=8087&setSub=1


----------



## AnDy62 (3 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



kerosam said:


> thought i'll share my thots if they are worth anything.
> 
> with this global economical climate & volatility, the markets are very sensitive to bad news & the very first industry that gets hit is the banking & finance industry. I think we would all agree that the dust has not settled regrading credit crunch. are we not still seeing flow of bad news that so-and-so banks are writing down $x of debts etc? With the DOW down over 300 pts last week, IMHO, our big four & investment banks are lined up for some smashing come tuesday... anyone seeing a silver lining close by? :
> 
> what i'm saying is, is there logic to buy banks, insurance companies, financial services companies in this climate?




Hmm.. you can't use one day's movement on the dow to strengthen your argument lol. Another way of looking at it, Suncorp is an Australian company with solid fundamentals that has had it's share price nearly halved in this climate, so a lot of this sentiment is built into the share price. So this is why people are bottom-picking, of course they are aware of these issues, so is the share price .


----------



## kerosam (3 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

hi ANDY62,

thanks for your comments. 

one day's movement might not be a good gauge of the market. but a market that volatile deserves plenty of caution. Personally at the moment, I'm bearish towards the banking & finance sector, LPTs & companies that rely heavily on US consumption. And I'm sure there are many blue chip companies with good solid fundamentals within these sectors. But blue chip or not, when the market turns, nearly every companies turn with it...

sadly to say, no matter how fundamental sound a company is, in the short term, all SP is at the mercy of market sentiments... interesting to see how SUN will pan out after XD


----------



## AnDy62 (3 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Thanks Kerosam. I take your point. Personally, I've got a a considerable amount of my portfolio in gold/resources for your stated reasons. Buying SUN, I was aware of the risk and the chance of further falls. But in the long term, 8% FF dividends and the avoidance of freak weather / freak financial crisis should see old sunnie do alright.


----------



## waz (10 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Whats going on with Suncorp?????

Takeover speculation?

I cant for the life of me find any articles about SUN this morning. Any ideas


----------



## AnDy62 (10 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Hmm interesting. Can't see any news, there were some large buyers early in the morning at good prices, this suggests something is in the air.. who knows? Originally, I held a vain hope that the market had an epiphany .. 'what a ridiculous price for SUN'


----------



## ROE (11 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I think SUN is extremely good value when it trades around $11... I average down all the way and SUN is my biggest holding now.

Considering Warren Buffett is currently out in the market looking for insurance business.  He must have known the insurance cycle has reach rock bottom in term of premium.


----------



## waz (11 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Both SUN and IAG have done well in the last two days.

Although I would have thought that SUN is to small for Bershire Hathaway.

Buffet would have liked QBE over the other two. (its doing better, and has a US presence. It also doesnt pay out big dividends and likes to retain as much earnings as possible, kinda like the Bershire model.


----------



## ROE (11 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



waz said:


> Both SUN and IAG have done well in the last two days.
> 
> Although I would have thought that SUN is to small for Bershire Hathaway.
> 
> Buffet would have liked QBE over the other two. (its doing better, and has a US presence. It also doesnt pay out big dividends and likes to retain as much earnings as possible, kinda like the Bershire model.




I'm not saying Buffett wants SUN..he's just out in the market after insurance business in general, no one knows what he like or doesn't like ..


----------



## explod (11 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ROE said:


> I'm not saying Buffett wants SUN..he's just out in the market after insurance business in general, no one knows what he like or doesn't like ..




Yes we do, good businesses that are undervalued and that given the right tweak will recover.

He has done that over and over and is his secret.   But you have to use your own ruler and undestand what you are measuring.


----------



## waz (11 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Interesting, SUN has an ASX price queery today and they say they know nothing.

Looks like the recent activity has just been a fund manager increasing their stake, although they have been putting in their buy orders a bit to quickly, (ie. not spacing them out throughout the day, but buying heavy in the morning)


----------



## osmosis (11 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I may be mistaken but the recent share price rally may also relate to SUN directors buying shares (7/3/08). The rally seems to be out of kilter with the big banks though.

"Breaking News":   http://business.theage.com.au/suncorp-in-the-dark-over-share-price-spike/20080311-1yno.html


----------



## ROE (11 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



osmosis said:


> I may be mistaken but the recent share price rally may also relate to SUN directors buying shares (7/3/08). The rally seems to be out of kilter with the big banks though.
> 
> "Breaking News":   http://business.theage.com.au/suncorp-in-the-dark-over-share-price-spike/20080311-1yno.html




People just work SUN current share price reflect real bargain and they all line up want a piece of it, especially the fund managers that has too much money and not enough good stock to buy


----------



## AnDy62 (11 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

ROE, fellow SUN holder. I must admit I haven't had the faith to keep buying on the way down, but good on you for doing so. $12.50 still seems like a steal, but in this market, who's to say? I'm still smarting from buying in at $15 a couple of weeks ago . Might buy some more if they dip into the elevens again. I just hope they don't get taken over for a crappy price because in time they should bounce back to the $20 mark. Let's hope this raly continues on its merry way, wow, maybe even the DOW might go up too


----------



## DionM (11 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I've been watching and thinking.

I hold SUN (from $18.50, but lets not go there!) and am still deciding what to do - whether I buy more SUN, or diversify (ANZ looks interesting).  I also hold IAG (again, at a stupid price) so I think I have 'enough' insurance exposure ...


----------



## AnDy62 (20 March 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

SUN was my best performer today  . But I think it isn't a bad stock in that I think the insurance industry has just experienced its nadir IMO. At $12.50 SUN has held up ok in the past couple of weeks. To me, accumulating a solid share with a good divvy at low prices is how you take advantage of a bear market. Will look to scoop up some more of these in the future, or maybe QBE/IAG given I'm pretty heavy on SUN


----------



## AnDy62 (8 May 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

SUN 15.000 15.020 15.010 +1.410 10.37%

 Wow! 

Such a big rise on a modest day with no news 

Couple of broker upgrades, something to do with the preference offer, takeover? Who knows, but it is nice to see my earlier block of Suncorp finally in the green!


----------



## So_Cynical (8 May 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I got in about the same time u did Andy...so todays high, about 10 weeks after 
buying in was good to see...for the first time with SUN, im in the money.

Value is Value.

Have to admit im pretty tempted to take the money and run....all this 
negative sentiment has finally got to me.:dunno:


----------



## AnDy62 (10 May 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Big white candle again yesterday, hope you didn't get out near the open 'So Cynical', if you did get out. But for me, I'll hold, its a quality stock which, a couple of days was trading at book value - very unusual for a big finance stock. Good to see my knife catching with this one hasn't proved to be the disaster it was looking like a while back


----------



## MRC & Co (10 May 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



So_Cynical said:


> I got in about the same time u did Andy...so todays high, about 10 weeks after
> buying in was good to see...for the first time with SUN, im in the money.
> 
> Value is Value.
> ...




lol, this is the exact reason we see resistance points and so many consolidations at old highs.  

Those who bought at a previous high, rode the trend down, now want to break-even.

This one broke out on high volume, not much else to say really, I would at least wait until it closes lower than the lows of the previous two days on it's uptrend to give yourself some chance of catching the trend up.  This way, you cannot loose much either if you have a relatively safe position size......

Good luck!


----------



## ROE (12 May 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Look at SUN goes in the last 3-4 trading days...clearly the market now see value in suncorp  ..... glad I make a stand and bold up SUN when they are down low low low  

I think if Westpac can get St George ... Suncorp is an attractive target for CBA given CBA has insurance and Promina division of suncorp will do nicely with CBA insurance division and CBA present in QLD is not strong where suncorp has that market cover.  my 2 cents


----------



## So_Cynical (12 May 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

:iagree: Assuming all goes well with the WBC/SGB merge.

CBA, ANZ or NAB would almost certainly have to have a go at Suncorp to stay in the 
top 2 or 3 banks, plus the insurance side of things has to be a plus.


----------



## AnDy62 (15 May 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

^ I too agree. Fat Prophets said to buy them a couple of days ago (haha we got in before the 'experts'). I'm thinking I might add some more if they drift under $15 again- because I think they are good value at that price irrespective of the takeover prospect anyway. Good luck to the holders, DYOR


----------



## ROE (15 May 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Anyone know if suncorp CPS notes open to everyone or just existing share holders?

http://www.suncorp.com.au/cps


----------



## dalek (15 May 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ROE said:


> Anyone know if suncorp CPS notes open to everyone or just existing share holders?
> 
> http://www.suncorp.com.au/cps




Yes the offer is available to all but existing security holders receive preference if the offer is over subscribed.


----------



## TheAbyss (2 June 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

A bit of press speculation regarding QBE making an offer for Suncorp.

Have to be a positive as it has all been pretty static since the promina deal imo.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23793690-5012439,00.html


----------



## AnDy62 (2 June 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Thx for the article, very interesting. Could work well as QBE could be able to dispose of the banking side of SUN pretty easily you'd think given the SGB/WBC merger. I hold SUN, don't think you can go to far wrong with 7.4% FF dividend, earnings factored in to PE ratio and price and of course the prospect of getting taken over - $19.50 eh? Sounds good to me. The article was speculating of course with that price .


----------



## ROE (3 June 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Standard market expectation that you offer 30% premium to trading price before the board even consider it...there is absolutely noway any take over can take place if it's offer at trading price unless the company about to go belly up of course then you offer at much as you like 

PS:
Anyone spot O'Halloran in Suncorp Brisbane Headquater yet ?


----------



## The_Snowman (1 August 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Any of you *SUN* buyers ready to get out yet?  Another couple of weeks down for the market, and a couple of more dollars off *SUN* and it will be ......


----------



## ROE (1 August 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Buy some more  I suspect they are under pressure for a hostile take over 
this is a perfect opportunity for some hostile take over


----------



## muddy (1 August 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Picked up some more today....been collecting on every couple of dollars down from $15. Looking a few years down the road... Wouldnt imagine it getting below below $10. Div would be too good, but i guess thats prob a silly thing to say in this market


----------



## ROE (1 August 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

They have to start to increase earning to maintain the dividend but I'm pretty sure they can maintain 2009 divi at 107 cents due to low pay out figures in previous years.

Beyond 2009 I dont want them to payout this figure if they cant increase earning .. I prefer to get dividend at 55 cents beyond 2009 if they cant increase profit. 

at this price I'm not surprise if QBE start to run the ruler over it.....


----------



## So_Cynical (1 August 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



The_Snowman said:


> Any of you *SUN* buyers ready to get out yet?  Another couple of weeks down for the market, and a couple of more dollars off *SUN* and it will be ......




More than happy to hold....today's ann was somewhat expected by the market, and subsequent 
price action was pretty much a confirmation of the support at around $11...today's lows were 
about the same as we saw 4 months ago.

We have seen the worst for SUN and it wasn't that bad....for those of us that got in cheaply 
in the last 5 months or so.


----------



## Julia (1 August 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Did any of you holders consider getting out when it rallied to $16 ish and waiting until there is some sort of definite uptrend again?
Seems pretty risky to be hanging in there in the hope of SUN becoming a takeover target.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (1 August 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Julia said:


> Did any of you holders consider getting out when it rallied to $16 ish and waiting until there is some sort of definite uptrend again?
> Seems pretty risky to be hanging in there in the hope of SUN becoming a takeover target.




I feel there is more downside for SUN yet and am looking at adding to my holdings when it drops a bit further. Its a good dividend hold at present.

Enclosed is a chart, a monthly since 1997. 

SUN has managed to close above the long term trend line 
From 1997 (a)

If it doesn't find support soon and goes below this line I can
See it getting support at $8.80. (b)

If it does fall below $9 and those who missed its rise above $9 in 2001 
Will jump in and provide support. 

Moreover in a catastrophe the next support is $8 a price about which it traded for 3 years between 1998 and 2001.(c)

gg


----------



## nomore4s (1 August 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ROE said:


> They have to start to increase earning to maintain the dividend but I'm pretty sure they can maintain 2009 divi at 107 cents due to low pay out figures in previous years.




And this doesn't send warning bells for you?



So_Cynical said:


> More than happy to hold....today's ann was somewhat expected by the market, and subsequent
> price action was pretty much a confirmation of the support at around $11...today's lows were
> about the same as we saw 4 months ago.
> 
> ...




Todays ann was somewhat expected by the market?
That's why the sp closed down by over 13%? If the market was expecting that there is no way the reaction would have been as bad as it was today.

If I was a shareholder I would be very worried about support at $11 holding. All we are going to need now is for 1 bank to cut their D/E.


PS - I think we may get a short rally to try to fill the gap and then another serious attempt at the $11.00 support area.


----------



## So_Cynical (1 August 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



nomore4s said:


> And this doesn't send warning bells for you?
> 
> Todays ann was somewhat expected by the market?
> That's why the sp closed down by over 13%? If the market was expecting that there is no way the reaction would have been as bad as it was today.




Right so a 50% fall in profits equals a 13% fall in the share price?

No it don't...so the market had already factored most of it in, jezz and i posted a 
chart and all ...we are back to where we were 4 months ago, back to support.

Garpal u say 8.80...i say bollocks, good luck waiting for that order to get filled.


----------



## nomore4s (2 August 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



So_Cynical said:


> Right so a 50% fall in profits equals a 13% fall in the share price?
> 
> No it don't...so the market had already factored most of it in, jezz and i posted a
> chart and all ...we are back to where we were 4 months ago, back to support.
> ...




We will have to agree to disagree on this.
Look at the gap down today, to me that isn't factored into the sp. Stocks that drop 13% in a day on a bad ann don't have it factored in imo.
A 50% fall in profit doesn't have to equate to a 50% fall in the sp.

When was the last time SUN lost over 13% in a day?

While support at $11.00 has held so far, I for one am not game enough to say for certain it will continue to hold. When the banks report next we may yet see more bad news come out.


----------



## So_Cynical (2 August 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



nomore4s said:


> We will have to agree to disagree on this.
> Look at the gap down today, to me that isn't factored into the sp. Stocks that drop 13% in a day on a bad ann don't have it factored in imo.
> A 50% fall in profit doesn't have to equate to a 50% fall in the sp.




While a 50% fall in profits don't equal a 50% fall in SP...im sure it don't equal 
a 13% fall...today's fall....and as for the factoring in ill quote days ann.

http://www.suncorp.com.au/suncorp/shareholders/_media/pdf/asx/Market_Update_31Jul2008.pdf



			
				SUN said:
			
		

> The update follows a review of preliminary unaudited financial information and completion of actuarial valuations in the general insurance and life risk businesses.
> The Group now expects to be at the top end of the* previous profit forecast* for its banking business.




The banking part of the business actually increased profits.



			
				SUN said:
			
		

> Suncorp‟s banking business expects to increase full year profits before bad debts, tax and one-off items




And bad debts are negligible.



			
				SUN said:
			
		

> The full year bad debts expense is expected to be between $70 million and $75 million.




Overall there's alot of positives in this ann, considering all the financial doom and gloom.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 August 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



So_Cynical said:


> Right so a 50% fall in profits equals a 13% fall in the share price?
> 
> No it don't...so the market had already factored most of it in, jezz and i posted a
> chart and all ...we are back to where we were 4 months ago, back to support.
> ...




There is considerable distribution going on at present. The price is gapping down on higher volume. SUN is breaching long term trendlines. I think it is brave not to expect the sp to further fall.

SUN at $11.53 is a hell of a lot closer to $8.80 than it is to $22, its highs just a short time ago.

The institutions are sh*****g themselves at present and fear reigns. They will dump underperformers. 

It will go down further I'm afraid, but it should recover eventually, just not yet.

As far as their investment arm, I follow the asx announcements closely using them as a filter in a bull market on buys and in a bear on sells, and some of SUN's punts have been woeful, a bit like AMP's,  who will be next in line to get whacked.

Blind Freddie could have done better.

gg


----------



## dan-o (15 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

this is starting to look like great value. One of the best div yields going. Garpal this is heading down the path you predicted. how much further do people think it will go?


----------



## Calliope (15 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Even SUNPB (hybrid) which has been holding up very well took a big hit today. Things don't look too flash.


----------



## ROE (15 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I got some more at $10 last week, look like I acted too soon 
But I have another order in already for $8.50 if it dropped that far.

100K of SUN will do me nicely in 5-10 years from now


----------



## ronnieling (15 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



dan-o said:


> this is starting to look like great value. One of the best div yields going. Garpal this is heading down the path you predicted. how much further do people think it will go?




There was some interesting (and rather bearish) commentary on Suncorp's loan book in todays Australian which spouted some alarming figures. Their loans in construction and development rose 42% this year and as asset valuations get written down across the board, that $6.2bn exposure could start to become worrying. A 1% rise in their impaired loans will wipe out the 09 profit and a 2% rise will slash profits for the entire group. 

I do own shares in Suncorp for the impressive div yield but that could get wiped out in the not too distant future.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



dan-o said:


> this is starting to look like great value. One of the best div yields going. Garpal this is heading down the path you predicted. how much further do people think it will go?




Sun is in big big trouble, I don't have much to add than to my previous post.

Its broken through that long term trend line, shown on this monthly chart.

And it has continued to drop below $10 as shown on the weekly.

I'll revise my suggested entry point to $7.10 as it is falling like the proverbial stone.

That is at the previous support in 2000.

The volume seems to have been high in this downtrend, its gapping, and its lows imo have not been reached.

The monthly doesn't show any real support at its present sp. It did close today off its lows though.

Lets hope it doesn't end up as roadkill.

gg


----------



## explod (15 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I have family with most of their cash in SUN term deposits.    Are such instruments at risk here too.


----------



## freddy2 (15 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Just reading the most recent financial results the thing the sticks out is the grossly excessive executive renumeration including short term incentives. These sort of payments are one of the main reasons the financial markets are crashing, a misalignment of employees and shareholders interests.


----------



## michael_selway (15 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ronnieling said:


> There was some interesting (and rather bearish) commentary on Suncorp's loan book in todays Australian which spouted some alarming figures. Their loans in construction and development rose 42% this year and as asset valuations get written down across the board, that $6.2bn exposure could start to become worrying. A 1% rise in their impaired loans will wipe out the 09 profit and a 2% rise will slash profits for the entire group.
> 
> I do own shares in Suncorp for the impressive div yield but that could get wiped out in the not too distant future.




HI yeah sounds scary

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
 2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 59.8 114.2 126.2 137.2 
DPS 107.0 107.0 107.0 111.0 *



> Date: 15/9/2008
> Author: James Chessell
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 54
> Insurance analysts are expected to scrutinise the financial performance ofSuncorp-Metway in mid-September 2008. Speculation has increased about a takeoverof Suncorp-Metway by large Australian insurance companies and banks due,predominantly, to a note issued by a Citigroup insurance analyst. Nigel Pittawayquestions the company's equity position among other matters
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## gfresh (16 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

What about America's AIG ? Would Suncorp have any exposure there? Or Lehman? 

Seems like the selling seems to be based more on some people knowing something along these lines, more than just standard falls in financials. 

Looks a bit similar to NAB with it's "unexplained" falls above the financials, before it magically announced it's hitherto 'non-direct exposure' to subprime as a wee little $1bn writedown.


----------



## ROE (16 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



explod said:


> I have family with most of their cash in SUN term deposits.    Are such instruments at risk here too.




Your deposit should safe, unless suncorp goes belly up (low probability)
you get all your money before all the share holder.

Fear and panic can drive stock to historic low but as long as it run a profitable business than all thing should be ok.


----------



## explod (16 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ROE said:


> Your deposit should safe, unless suncorp goes belly up (low probability)
> you get all your money before all the share holder.
> 
> Fear and panic can drive stock to historic low but as long as it run a profitable business than all thing should be ok.




Thanks for your take on that Roe


Cheers explod


The big worry is what you dont' know and what you know is most often wrong.


----------



## blinkau (16 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I am still surprised people are still harping that Suncorp is cheap. On what basis? Maybe if it was taken out by a bidder. If you paid $12 a few months ago you are down over 20%! No matter what that is quite a large loss to take. 

The company seems to be a text book example of the exact kind of stock to avoid. 

That is just my opinion and we all have our own


----------



## ROE (16 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



blinkau said:


> I am still surprised people are still harping that Suncorp is cheap. On what basis? Maybe if it was taken out by a bidder. If you paid $12 a few months ago you are down over 20%! No matter what that is quite a large loss to take.
> 
> The company seems to be a text book example of the exact kind of stock to avoid.
> 
> That is just my opinion and we all have our own




It's all subjective, if people think it's going bankrupt, it's not going to make money and there is no value in any of the business they hold then there is no value to be found. Suncorp has insurance, banking, real estate,wealth management etc...

but on the other side if people recognize what underlying business it holds and it going through a rough ride at a moment and when those tides are dust and done and these business position itself for the next cycle then
you get to see some value in the business they hold.

Stock is the highest risk you can put your money into and some are willing to take that risk in anticipate for better return 5-10 years from now.

the return may not eventuate but you never know if you never never go


----------



## Go Nuke (16 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Of course there could always be the possibility of a T/O?

It happened to SGB so why not Suncorp?
Even if a company took over Suncorp, they might only be interested in the Insurance game that Suncorp has exposure to and sell of the rest...or vise versa.

IMO though, I think WBC is the pick of the bunch
or even BOQ has held up better than most.

ps, id have said $8.90ish should hold for Suncorps sp.


----------



## justjohn (17 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ROE said:


> I got some more at $10 last week, look like I acted too soon
> But I have another order in already for $8.50 if it dropped that far.
> 
> 100K of SUN will do me nicely in 5-10 years from now




Roe ,hope you got some of the $8.35 that was being offered earlier on this morning .Div yield up around 12%:


----------



## michael_selway (17 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



justjohn said:


> Roe ,hope you got some of the $8.35 that was being offered earlier on this morning .Div yield up around 12%:




Hehe only if earnings is sustainable 

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 59.8 114.2 126.2 137.2 
DPS 107.0 107.0 107.0 111.0*

Also whenever they make the below annoucements, often its the opposite, dont know why though!

thx

MS


----------



## deadset (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

It's very tempting at $7.
Some people think this could go belly up though ?

The next divvy is March.  If anyone hears anything, please.

It looks like MQG and SUN are copping it hard today.


----------



## ROE (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Dam slaughter house my last position is put in is $7.55 .... whether it fill or not is another story.

that is it it could be a very expensive lesson for me but I have to stay with my conviction


----------



## DionM (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

It is nothing short of unbelievable.  From +$20 to $7 range.  Insane.

I am still holding from around $18 - for better or worse.  I thought they had reached a turning point recently but I was wrong.

I am debating about buying more - both for long term investment and averaging down.


----------



## oldblue (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



DionM said:


> It is nothing short of unbelievable.  From +$20 to $7 range.  Insane.
> 
> I am still holding from around $18 - for better or worse.  I thought they had reached a turning point recently but I was wrong.
> 
> I am debating about buying more - both for long term investment and averaging down.




It might pay to have a read of today's Australian before buying.
In my long bitter experience of such things, "averaging down" has almost always resulted in a " long term investment".


----------



## Glen48 (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I see QBE is looking at Suncorp what we need to know if Suncorp will rise or just go down low enough for a take over??


----------



## ROE (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I have a lot at stake with SUN 
start to buy in at 12-14 and average down since then

so I went through their book again.. Development and construction lending increase a fair bit but they reassure all their loan is backed by hard asset.

With Raptis gone belly up I keep an eye on how much Suncorp can recover
if they can recover their money then the fear around Suncorp bad loan my be all nothing but fear..

their long term bad debt (10 years plus) also give me assurance these guys don't do stupid thing and their bad debt will be in line with their previous years

Their worse period is 1998-2000 with 1.41%-1.68%.

So clearly there are down side to this stock if things happen outside their normal long term trend but there is upside too if their bad loan fall in line with their long term trend and there may not be major storm like they face last year in QLD.

I say 50/50 chance it goes one way or the other but a lot of that has already factor into the current price ... so I'm game enough to take a stand on SUN


----------



## ROE (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Glen48 said:


> I see QBE is looking at Suncorp what we need to know if Suncorp will rise or just go down low enough for a take over??




They cant really take over without the board approval, the majority of the share holder are retailer like IAG .. without the board recommendation there is no way in hell they can take over

so the price has to be right and the right price is $15 I be happy with that


----------



## DionM (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



oldblue said:


> It might pay to have a read of today's Australian before buying.
> In my long bitter experience of such things, "averaging down" has almost always resulted in a " long term investment".




Yeah I know.  My long term is 30 years though - a second superannuation, if you will.  So I don't mind averaging down so long as the business is suitable and the price is reasonable ... and I'm still deciding.


----------



## oldblue (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

If the price is good enough and the market is sick enough it won't matter what the directors recommend.
I would think that a lot less than $15 would suffice in today's market but then I'm not a SUN shareholder.


----------



## Julia (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



justjohn said:


> Roe ,hope you got some of the $8.35 that was being offered earlier on this morning .Div yield up around 12%:



If you bought at a higher price, quoting the dividend percentage is cold comfort I would have thought.   You're still only getting the same dollar amount on your original investment, and have a capital loss to show for it.


----------



## ROE (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



oldblue said:


> If the price is good enough and the market is sick enough it won't matter what the directors recommend.
> I would think that a lot less than $15 would suffice in today's market but then I'm not a SUN shareholder.




most of them probably don't even have a shares account and dont even know what share price suncorp is except they get their dividend cheque every 6 months and annual report.

most of them got a hold of the shares from their membership associated with Suncorp in the old day when its own by QLD government.

so in order for them to sell their shares suncorp board will write them a letter and advice them to sell their shares else they just ignore all the hu ha that going on the market and no one can buy those shares and no take over can be possible ...

QBE walk away from IAG for this same reason majority of the share holder are retail so without the board agree on the price it will be a nightmare for QBE to make a hostile bid.


----------



## ROE (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Julia said:


> If you bought at a higher price, quoting the dividend percentage is cold comfort I would have thought.   You're still only getting the same dollar amount on your original investment, and have a capital loss to show for it.




share price movement doesn't bother me too much I'm very calm and I do sleep sound at night  ... I have no margin loan to meet and no debt to pay  
so I can be very flexible and make as much commitment and hold as long as I like.

the only regret is I may move too early or too late  but short of the company going under price drop to $5 doesn't bother me once I bought the shares.

As long as the cheque comes twice a  year at 5%-6% yield I'm more than grateful.


----------



## questionall_42 (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ROE said:


> share price movement doesn't bother me too much I'm very calm and I do sleep sound at night  ... I have no margin loan to meet and no debt to pay
> so I can be very flexible and make as much commitment and hold as long as I like.
> 
> the only regret is I may move too early or too late  but short of the company going under price drop to $5 doesn't bother me once I bought the shares.
> ...




I kind of understand the mindset where you are happy to have a paper loss if you are in for the long-term, but what I don't understand is your acceptance that the dividend yield will remain at 5-6% of the old price/current price given the situation SUN is in.  There is a reason why the sp is falling.


----------



## oldblue (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ROE said:


> most of them probably don't even have a shares account and dont even know what share price suncorp is except they get their dividend cheque every 6 months and annual report.
> 
> most of them got a hold of the shares from their membership associated with Suncorp in the old day when its own by QLD government.
> 
> ...





I wouldn't underestimate the propensity of shareholders,  even normally passive retail types who may not have had to put up hard cash for their shares, to suddenly take an interest if an attractive offer is made.
In today's circumstances, cash in hand may be a bit too hard to turn down.


----------



## ROE (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



questionall_42 said:


> I kind of understand the mindset where you are happy to have a paper loss if you are in for the long-term, but what I don't understand is your acceptance that the dividend yield will remain at 5-6% of the old price/current price given the situation SUN is in.  There is a reason why the sp is falling.




There are many reasons why price rise and fall but that how the market work
long term it smooth out. 

50 cents dividend I expect a year from this stock.. at $10 a shares that 5% dividend. Right now it's paying 107 and it predicting next year it paying 107 but I play it safe and accept 50 cents.

Unless it lose a large amount of money and not profitable I cant see why they cant maintain the dividend payout..look at their pass 10 years dividend history and their stability.

But should thing improve and they maintain 107 dividend then I get a nice 10% full franked dividend each year and don't care if price of the stock move from then on.

Should sh*t happen then I lose my capital  but that a decision you make when you buy any asset


----------



## ROE (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

They have to out with something like that don't they? else they scare stock may free fall  

http://news.theage.com.au/business/suncorp-reconfirms-earnings-guidance-20080918-4j9t.html

I go with the annual report and it also restate it here so I hope they dont feed me the wrong information 

"We have a high quality consumer portfolio and further de risked our book by selling the credit card portfolio in February this year," he said.

This means Suncorp's non-performing loans have historically been higher than its competitors, but its write-offs as a proportion of total lending have been around two-thirds of the average of major Australian banks, Mr Mulcahy said.


----------



## DionM (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ROE said:


> They have to out with something like that don't they? else they scare stock may free fall
> 
> http://news.theage.com.au/business/suncorp-reconfirms-earnings-guidance-20080918-4j9t.html




They have some good long term funding too ...

_Suncorp said it was on target to achieve its funding requirements for *2008/099* _

91 years into the future, not bad 

I do like Suncorp (else I wouldn't have bought at $18), I'm just nervous about where the bottom is.  If it drops sub $5 something is really crazy.  I know it's no BNB but BNB went from $20+ to sub $1 so it can happen.


----------



## Julia (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ROE said:


> share price movement doesn't bother me too much I'm very calm and I do sleep sound at night  ... I have no margin loan to meet and no debt to pay
> so I can be very flexible and make as much commitment and hold as long as I like.
> 
> the only regret is I may move too early or too late  but short of the company going under price drop to $5 doesn't bother me once I bought the shares.
> ...




Well, each to his own.  But being happy with a 5% - 6% yield while one's capital is dwindling seems to me an odd choice when you can have your capital intact and earning 8% in a simple old term deposit while the debacle plays itself out.


----------



## ROE (18 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Julia said:


> Well, each to his own.  But being happy with a 5% - 6% yield while one's capital is dwindling seems to me an odd choice when you can have your capital intact and earning 8% in a simple old term deposit while the debacle plays itself out.




Deposit offer no prospect of capital growth so in order for you to aim for capital grown you have to buy something be it property or shares

but the risk to that is your capital can go backward in short term, now if you are force to sell then you face capital lost but I play a scenario where I never ever be force to sell 

so I take that risk out of the equation 

unless the company goes under short term market movement doesn't bother me.

You maybe able to try and pick the bottom but I cant do that so I got to work out a strategy where I can slowly come in over a period of time and stay in for a long time 

Yes stock can fall further once I done with buying  but what can I do? 
that's mr Market and he does that to hundred of stocks every day 

I just get on with my daily life and in 30 years when I retire those company still around and pay me nice income. 

some of course will disappear all together but I can weather a few disappearing stocks and still manage ok


----------



## blinkau (20 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

ROE you seem more of a fundamentalist (like myself) have you read the book security analysis? 

If so did you use any of the information in picking up SUN?


----------



## ROE (22 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



blinkau said:


> ROE you seem more of a fundamentalist (like myself) have you read the book security analysis?
> 
> If so did you use any of the information in picking up SUN?




Yeah I read it found it to be a damn boring book and it doesn't really apply to the current environment, those was different times  and accounting standard has change since then.

Stuff like book value back then doesn't really applied to book value now. Book value now are just too crazy I woudn't put too much weight on it.

I  like Phillip Fisher and Warren Buffett style better  where you buy no more than 10-15 stock but concentrate my portfolio on those stocks and let it run ..when one of those 10-15 stock no longer stack up or worse, gone bust 
I get it off the list and replace it with something else.

I read dozen or more books maybe a whole lot more than I should  on investment so I don't know which stuff I learn from what books any more.

Business section, investment magazine and time less investment books and annual reports tend to grab my attention every where I go so I tend to read a lot  

I also has my iPod and iPhone so I listen to a lot of time less advices on investment through audio book when I'm driving or catching the bus.
waste time looking out the windows, may as well do something useful and learn something 

One thing I learn most is this quote 

“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”

and that hold so true, I did made some crab buy failing the thorough analysis part  cos I get lazy
and I shall not repeat the mistakes, if I get lazy I don't buy


----------



## blinkau (22 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I am only half way through and think its probably one of the better books iv read. Its true its very old but if you know about accounting you can sort of reference it to our time. 

The easy part is reading the books the hardest part is applying it. 

But back on Suncorp do you think they can stick with their guidance of 107c dividend, I mean isnt their payout ratio well over 100% and they are underwriting their DRP. If the div is reduced I wonder what effect it would have on the stock.


----------



## ROE (23 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I don't think Suncorp can maintain this level of dividend without increase earning Period

I can only guess that the management predicting future earning will be back to normal level in a few years and that why they want to maintain this dividend payout.

Currently they are dipping into their insurance capital reserver to pay for dividend which is ok for short term that why I like banking with insurance 
who else has banking and insurance? you guess it it's CBA  

I have no problem with them drop dividend to half of what they paying, as long as they are prudent with their spare cash and invest and generate more money in the future.

Earning is what matter, if they earn $1 a share and pay dividend of 50 cents it still ok, it wont effect the stock price. 

most analyst doesn't like SUN right now but that is their view, I got mine and it suit me just fine, I cant buy stuff cheap if everyone is buying at the same time as I'm 

My prediction is in 2 years from now Suncorp will benefit from insurance premium increase and the probability of another major storm hit Queensland is low that will shield them from the banking down turn and if banking has not slow then well more cash to share holders.

at the end of the day you can either make a decision of buying a stock or not after your research and I can be 100% sure you NEVER ever get it 100% right but like Warren always said better to vaguely right than precisely wrong


----------



## ROE (23 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



blinkau said:


> I am only half way through and think its probably one of the better books iv read. Its true its very old but if you know about accounting you can sort of reference it to our time.




I dont know anything about accounting I'm not a trained professional but the most basic maths seems to do the job well 

subtract, addition, division and multiply I never knew primary school maths
can be such a useful tools, occasionally I use Year 10 maths like probability and stuff, and all the crab I learn at Uni never ever get used like 3D maths and Calculus


----------



## Glen48 (25 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Rumour has it CBA and  QBE are looking over Suncorp???
Any thoughts on which way this could go.
I see Suncorp are advertising they now cover  Flood damage in every policy which means they are trying to get money in at the risk of no floods this year.


----------



## ROE (25 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Glen48 said:


> Rumour has it CBA and  QBE are looking over Suncorp???
> Any thoughts on which way this could go.
> I see Suncorp are advertising they now cover  Flood damage in every policy which means they are trying to get money in at the risk of no floods this year.




Another day in the market with rumors and bad and good news fly left and right.

Investing short term in the market is extremely risky I say the odds are not better than the casino 

but give it 10 years the risk will be hell of a lot less...

"in the short term market is a voting machine, in the long run it's a weighting machine" like Ben Graham always said and Warren recently repeating below

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26869518/site/14081545


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (26 September 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Glen48 said:


> Rumour has it CBA and  QBE are looking over Suncorp???
> Any thoughts on which way this could go.
> I see Suncorp are advertising they now cover  Flood damage in every policy which means they are trying to get money in at the risk of no floods this year.




If Lloyd's syndicates underwrite the peril of FLOOD why can't Sun Metway?. Likewise if they wanted to u/write risks involving "timber" surely you could say SUN are chasing premiums.Now QBE has boxes on Lime Street,and they are as 'blue conservative' as Thatcher. I personally think SUN with the Promina portfolio might make interesting reading in the daily's.....nice spin anyway.Buy on a rumour?


----------



## bas (2 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

There is a bit of a rumour going around that Suncorp are unable to borrow/lend money at the moment. Not sure what that means- they are up today...


----------



## freddy2 (2 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



freddy2 said:


> Just reading the most recent financial results the thing the sticks out is the grossly excessive executive renumeration including short term incentives. These sort of payments are one of the main reasons the financial markets are crashing, a misalignment of employees and shareholders interests.




Interesting articles about SUN to reinforce my point about the company apparently being run for the benefit of upper management and not the shareholders.

http://business.theage.com.au/busin...anks-on-redundancy-program-20081001-4s13.html

The job cuts come as the company said it had offloaded assets to boost its capital. In any case, there's a gathering morale problem at Suncorp ”” in executive and other ranks ”” according to several employees who contacted BusinessDay.

The memo applauds staff for helping achieve cost savings. But there has been no restraint at executive level and Mulcahy and his upper management have drawn criticism for travelling with their PAs in entourages, first-class.


----------



## oldblue (2 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I don't hold SUN but I wouldn't put too much store on stories of disgruntled employees/poor morale. In any large organisation there are always such undertones, and very much to be expected in these " troubled" times. Plenty of financial institutions will be looking at ways to trim costs and this includes taking a hard look at staffing levels.
As for difficulty in raising money, this is a fact of life at present and the price of short term funding is rising and becoming more difficult to arrange. Expect the RBA to accommodate any extreme issues for the registered banks.


----------



## ROE (2 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I work in large corporate before and there are always disgruntle people, from management down to little guy.

I see it's a good oppotunity to get rid of those people during the down turn.
if you work for an organisation and you are not happy with it, leave go some where else that you are happy with get on with the job.

These people not only doing themselves a dis-service hanging around, they also infected other hard working people around them 

Having said that I hope they dont employ a heavy tactics and get rid of genuine hard working people, these guys deserve a break in bad time.

I'm a share holders and I prefer their executives getting a pay cut and spare a few hard working people. I may just email them on that note


----------



## freddy2 (2 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



oldblue said:


> I don't hold SUN but I wouldn't put too much store on stories of disgruntled employees/poor morale. In any large organisation there are always such undertones, and very much to be expected in these " troubled" times. Plenty of financial institutions will be looking at ways to trim costs and this includes taking a hard look at staffing levels.
> As for difficulty in raising money, this is a fact of life at present and the price of short term funding is rising and becoming more difficult to arrange. Expect the RBA to accommodate any extreme issues for the registered banks.




The point I was trying to make was about the first class travel with an entourage, not morale. If you read the annual report it certainly doesn't look like they are trimming costs in executive renumeration or benefits. Short term bonuses, especially in the millions of dollars, can never be justified for a business like Suncorp and recent events have proven this.

Further in the linked story from a memo:
"So far your efforts to quickly reduce discretionary spending have resulted in significant savings from each business unit. Since July we have seen a 33% drop in travel-related costs as people increasingly make use of tele/video conference facilities."


----------



## oldblue (2 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I take your point, freddy but SUN is a $10b company, even at today's depressed SP and $10b company top executives don't travel alone in cattle class!
Like you , I expect to see some trimming of bonuses and other executive perks and would be surprised if this doesn't eventuate.


----------



## AnDy62 (2 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Take over rumours brought back to the surface again..
Saw on Sky Business that ANZ/CBA have been sniffing around.
I'm not fussed either way, SUN will come back without a t/o IMO, can't see it becoming a BNB, business model is far more conservative, particularly considering their insurance arm. Hold. I pity the lemmings who leapt when SUN was $7-8, wow, what a bargain!


----------



## ROE (3 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



AnDy62 said:


> Take over rumours brought back to the surface again..
> Saw on Sky Business that ANZ/CBA have been sniffing around.
> I'm not fussed either way, SUN will come back without a t/o IMO, can't see it becoming a BNB, business model is far more conservative, particularly considering their insurance arm. Hold. I pity the lemmings who leapt when SUN was $7-8, wow, what a bargain!




Judging from the share price surge today something maybe be up and maybe announcement next week ? 

but again just rumor in a market but it certainly getting louder each day.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Suncorp-open-to-offers-K2V6Y?opendocument&src=rss


----------



## ROE (3 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



bas said:


> There is a bit of a rumour going around that Suncorp are unable to borrow/lend money at the moment. Not sure what that means- they are up today...




No rumor it's a fact ... money market dry up, most banks refuse to lend one another it doesnt apply to just suncorp it applied to everyone who are in the game of borrowing and lending money.

in the last 12 months Governments around the globe have been regularly pump money into the money market because of this issues.


----------



## AnDy62 (3 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Hmm it's looking that way ROE, very strong finish today.
Interesting to see if anything eventuates, I think it will, but that's just a gut feel that the banks will try and reassert themselves in response to SBG/WBC. CBA is probably in the best position.


----------



## [t..o..m] (6 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



> Suncorp confirms acquisition interest
> 
> Suncorp Metway has confirmed it has received several approaches by parties interested in acquiring its banking and wealth management operations.
> 
> ...




Very interesting. SUN has gone up 14.186% since october 1st. After this news today they are up 6% already.... I might hold a little longer.


----------



## JTLP (8 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

With CBA buying out Bankwest and also saying it was sniffing around Suncorp...how do you holders feel? Would you appreciate a takeover by the lovely CBA?


----------



## ROE (8 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I dont mind CBA buying suncorp I like CBA, well run diversify group I will take the scrip offer  

Most of my business are with CBA so may as well get them to own suncorp


----------



## oldblue (9 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ROE said:


> I dont mind CBA buying suncorp I like CBA, well run diversify group I will take the scrip offer
> 
> Most of my business are with CBA so may as well get them to own suncorp




Do we know if it will be an all-scrip offer?
It could be that the capital being raised by CBA for the BankWest t/o will include enough cash to buy SUN's banking business only. There's some speculation that the insurance business may not be wanted.

Disc: Not holding either CBA or SUN.


----------



## tomsum (9 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Rumour has it that they will be looking at the banking section of the business only if either ANZ/CBA go ahead with possible take-over. Not sure what that would do to the shares as Suncorp incorporates numerous insurance companies as well...


----------



## oldblue (9 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



tomsum said:


> Rumour has it that they will be looking at the banking section of the business only if either ANZ/CBA go ahead with possible take-over. Not sure what that would do to the shares as Suncorp incorporates numerous insurance companies as well...




Yes, a nice exercise to estimate ( guess?) the relative values of SUN's banking and insurance businesses.


----------



## Julia (29 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Cut to dividend flagged.

http://business.smh.com.au/business...dividend-20081028-5aif.html?sssdmh=dm16.34247


----------



## blinkau (29 October 2008)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I am surprised recently on the support for this stock above $10 when the company was clearly sick, the dividend was in threat and the management appear desperate to sell the business. I would be very interested though at the current prices of taking another look though I mean is there a possibility without a takeover that Suncorp will stay the same?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (15 January 2009)

*Sun - Suncorp*

There is no thread on this stock so thought I might start one. Fundamentally how is the stock looking?


----------



## Family_Guy (15 January 2009)

*Re: Sun - Suncorp*

Thanks for starting this. I saw a newspaper article a week ago and saved it, couldn't find anything on here about Suncorp and forgot about it. It's about a possible TO of Suncorp, but i googled suncorp and takeover and came up with 30 odd stories from August to October last year. The one below is from last week and sparked my interest. As yet i have not looked into how Suncorp is doing.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,,24878435-462,00.html

"Funding issues, impaired loans and capital management are all creating a challenging environment for the sector and the regional banks in particular," he told BusinessDaily.

"In light of these pressures I think there will be further consolidation in the first half of 2009."

Queensland-based banks Suncorp and Bank of Queensland are viewed as the most likely takeover targets.

ANZ and NAB are expected to engage in a bidding war for the Suncorp franchise, while French bank BRED Banque Populaire is viewed as a potential acquirer of BoQ after building a 9 per cent stake last year.


----------



## ands (17 January 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I read in the paper (think it was 'The Financial', don't have the paper in my hand atm) that Suncorp was just hours away from accepting a low ball offer for the banking division from the ANZ Bank, but the government bank deposit guarantee saved them... though Suncorp still say they are still open to offers.


----------



## Bill M (5 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

From The Australian, click here for fully story.

*Dividends, profit crash as Mulcahy plans Suncorp exit*

SUNCORP today warned that its interim profit could fall by as much as 45 per cent and dividends could be slashed, as CEO John Mulcahy said he would step down when a successor is found.
-------

My opinion: I sold this stock 2 Months ago, I made a wrong call. Julia, I remember having a chat about this one with you. You were right and I was wrong. Anyhow I am glad I am out, this stock will tank big time when trading resumes. I have never seen an entitlement issue at a discount of 35 to 39% before. Things not looking good for Suncorp, I know it won't be easy for people to put their hands into their pockets to take up the issue but with a bit of luck it won't tank as low as the issue price of $4.50. Good luck to all holders.

For more information on Suncorp click on the following link for the announcements: http://www.suncorp.com.au/suncorp/shareholders/asx.aspx


----------



## matty193 (5 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Hey guys, I'm after any advice or help regarding this one!

I bought in a few weeks ago and have already lost 20%. 
Do you think I should cut my losses and sell and stick with SUN for the long-haul?

Much appreciate any suggestions...


----------



## So_Cynical (5 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Timings all important...i was lucky i didn't get my modest average down order filled this 
week, SP would almost certainly fall below the 4.50 new issue price when trading resumes.

On the positive side of things...SUN will be well funded and still profitable and still with 
good prospects going forward, the doom and gloom wont last forever...however its gona 
be a long time till i see a profit with SUN.

Long long time....in for the long haul.

Lucky my Gold stocks are going off and sort of balancing out my portfolio.


----------



## matty193 (5 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Hmmmm.... fair enough. I am thinking I'll stick it out, but don't want to wait around while the price continues to plummet after this announcement


----------



## alphaman (5 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



matty193 said:


> I am thinking I'll stick it out, but don't want to wait around while the price continues to plummet after this announcement




No one wants to, that's why traders take small losses. That's the only way to insure against big losses.


----------



## Julia (5 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



			
				Bill M;3924 said:
			
		

> From The Australian, click here for fully story.[/URL]
> 
> ]
> 
> ...



Bill, I take no pleasure in 'being right' about this.   I've probably been wrong more often, for that matter.

Just might be a warning, though, to anyone who thinks the dividends on the 'big four' can't be cut.


----------



## ozdave (5 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I'm a holder of SUN and have done since I was a staff member many years ago. I went to the entitlements site to check out whats on offer and there are all sorts of disclaimers you need to go through to get to see the documents as they are not offered legally outside australia.

I'm not currently a resident of australia and this is noted with the registry.

Does this mean im not entitled to any of the entitlements on offer to shareholders? Not sure I would buy in but would be good to understand what this means.

Does anyone understand the legal restriction of the viewing of these documents outside aus and nz?


----------



## oldblue (6 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Julia said:


> Bill, I take no pleasure in 'being right' about this.   I've probably been wrong more often, for that matter.
> 
> Just might be a warning, though, to anyone who thinks the dividends on the 'big four' can't be cut.




I would think it's almost inevitable that some, at least, of the big 4 will cut their divs in the year ahead.
However, in today's interest rate environment even a 50% cut in divs will still produce a pretty reasonable yield, fairly close to historical averages.
Not so for SUN, unfortunately.


----------



## freddy2 (6 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



freddy2 said:


> 18/09/2008 Just reading the most recent financial results the thing the sticks out is the grossly excessive executive renumeration including short term incentives. These sort of payments are one of the main reasons the financial markets are crashing, a misalignment of employees and shareholders interests.




IMO John Mulcahy should give up his retirement bonus of $2.4 million, but I doubt it will happen. 

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25015495-462,00.html
SUNCORP boss John Mulcahy is leaving Queensland's largest company after pocketing nearly $20 million as the company's value fell by $12 billion

...

He will walk away with the bag of cash at a time when the company's value as fallen nearly $12 billion from its peak of $19 million, again raising concerns about chief executives profiting even when company fortunes plunge, The Courier-Mail reports.

The Suncorp chief earned $7.6 million in cash during his time at the helm of the group and will get an estimated $2.4 million immediate payout.


----------



## vincent191 (6 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I wonder if the ANZ will be making a move? The share prices of SUN have taken a hammering and in my opinion it would start to look more & more attractive especially after the capital raising which will add to their cash stockpile.

Hmmm....I wonder if I should buy a few shares when it resumes trading and speculate on an impending bid from ANZ??


----------



## Glen48 (6 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Are they an asset to any other business?
They must have a lot of exposure to all the Flooding in North Qld plus Brisbane and storms late last year they also have a share in RACQ which would be paying out on claims as well???????


----------



## oldblue (6 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



vincent191 said:


> I wonder if the ANZ will be making a move? The share prices of SUN have taken a hammering and in my opinion it would start to look more & more attractive especially after the capital raising which will add to their cash stockpile.
> 
> Hmmm....I wonder if I should buy a few shares when it resumes trading and speculate on an impending bid from ANZ??




It's unlikely that anyone would make a move while the capital raising is on - it would complicate things horribly and I would think that a predator would like to see the capital restored first. It's not as if anyone is in a strong enough position to substitute their own funds for what is being sought by SUN.
After that, who knows? I doubt that any of the majors would want to add the insurance to their businesses so either that would stay or another buyer would be lined up.
I would be looking for some strength in the SP once things stabilise, as a sign that someone is seriously interested.


----------



## Ashsaege (6 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



vincent191 said:


> I wonder if the ANZ will be making a move? The share prices of SUN have taken a hammering and in my opinion it would start to look more & more attractive especially after the capital raising which will add to their cash stockpile.
> 
> Hmmm....I wonder if I should buy a few shares when it resumes trading and speculate on an impending bid from ANZ??




I wouldn't be jumping on this one! Suncorp shares have been heading south for a long time now, and the CEO is jumping ship! SUN could very well end up being a dog... and for a lot of long term holders it is.


----------



## TheAbyss (6 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



vincent191 said:


> I wonder if the ANZ will be making a move? The share prices of SUN have taken a hammering and in my opinion it would start to look more & more attractive especially after the capital raising which will add to their cash stockpile.
> 
> Hmmm....I wonder if I should buy a few shares when it resumes trading and speculate on an impending bid from ANZ??




Are you serious? Why didn’t Suncorp get what they thought the banking business was worth last year? QBE, CBA and Westpac looked at their books last year and they ran for cover without even a token offer. Why, because it’s at the mercy of overseas money providers and Suncorp wanted the insurance arm to give them the cash to keep the bank operational. That was crap given the insurance arm were and are having their own issues. 

All those thay stayed in hopeful of a good dividend are also now going to leave in droves. I hope my mother in law got out of Suncorp when i told her. This was always going to happen in my view. Dividends my ass!

Chairman John Story should have been flicked not Mulcahy after Story didn’t address these issues last year or do whatever it took to accommodate a buy out last year. Now they are forced into a $900 million capital raising at 35% discount to SP. The SP is going to be in the low $5 range and they have cut their dividend by 60%!

They are saying the capital raising is due to an unexpected increase in provisioning for bad debts in banking operation and the insurance business failing to deliver. Well doh! Sack Story, three months ago he said all was well and the bad debt was under control and it did not need new capital. He said $73 million when their bad debt is actually $355 million. 

So in short, the insurance business is ****e, the bank is losing money, share holders are facing a major dilution at a 35% discount to the current share price which is already 45% down from a year ago and to put the cream on top, a 60% cut to the dividend.

If you are not out now it’s too late.


----------



## vincent191 (6 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Thanks everybody for the insight. Looks like the ANZ's unsuccessful bid for SUN last year was a blessing in disguise, just like the BHP/RIO saga. Lucky they pulled out 

But surely when SUN shares fall low enough it will make them an attractice target? There must be "some" value left eventually?

What will the SUN Directors tell their shareholders now? Three months ago it was ok and now it is a horror story. How the hell can they get it so wrong?


----------



## oldblue (6 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I assume that those were all rhetorical questions!


No answers here, but I agree it looks suspiciously like the wrong man's carrying the can.


----------



## oldoz (6 February 2009)

*CEO Suncorp*

Sun headline reads"Suncorp chief goes as bad news mounts" should read "Bad Suncorp Chief goes as bad news mounts", with 20million plus 1.3million shares he holds plus another 400,000 incentive shares.Its not bad after the company's value has fallen 12bill.from its peak. I wonder what Mr. Rudd thinks about that.Needles to say I hold stock waiting for somebody to make an offer.Oldoz


----------



## So_Cynical (6 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



vincent191 said:


> I wonder if the ANZ will be making a move? The share prices of SUN have taken a hammering and in my opinion it would start to look more & more attractive especially after the capital raising which will add to their cash stockpile.
> 
> Hmmm....I wonder if I should buy a few shares when it resumes trading and speculate on an impending bid from ANZ??




I'm thinking same...cept i doubt a credible bid will come from any one...the 
insurance/banking business model is a good one...as the new CEO will prove.


----------



## TheAbyss (9 February 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Anything below $6 is uncharted territory so anyones guess where this will end up.

There will be a bounce at some stage as there always is (albeit sometimes very temporary) but at what price?

Capital raising at $4.50 so is that the bounce point or a bit higher due to the retail component of the cap raising?

There will be a profit opportunity at a point. My feeling is the low will be tomorrow as people sell today and margin calls come in overnight so maybe tomorrow lunch time is an entry for a day or three?


----------



## Sean K (19 March 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

This is a very nice chart.



What's going on here? Looks like a US bank chart. Or, is it an insurance chart?

Is this turkey going to start gobbling again, or is she going to be carved up?

Any EW'er care to plot a potential bottom here? eeeek!


----------



## nomore4s (19 March 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Kennas the volume in the last few months is telling me SUN might be close to a bottom as there looks to be some strength appearing in that chart, want to see a base form now.


----------



## nawshus (23 April 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

It's too quiet here. Come on SUN at least hit $7 by next week. Anyone with good knowledge about this stock please speak out and inform the uninformed.


----------



## Muschu (23 April 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



nawshus said:


> It's too quiet here. Come on SUN at least hit $7 by next week. Anyone with good knowledge about this stock please speak out and inform the uninformed.




If the general market is heading south SUN may go with it.  Of course I may be wrong as always.
Regards
Rick


----------



## Sean K (23 April 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



nawshus said:


> It's too quiet here. Come on SUN at least hit $7 by next week. Anyone with good knowledge about this stock please speak out and inform the uninformed.



It hasn't changed too much from the charts above. Could be potentially poking through the upper limits of the down trend resistance, but that downtrend is pretty solid. $7.00 seems to be the mark, but it's at $6, so some way to go... Means it would be good if it did break up though it though. Watching that closely.


----------



## So_Cynical (23 April 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

The 3 month chart looks much better than the 3 year one...and that goes for all 
the financial's not just SUN....glass half full factors going forward.

Currently SUN is trading about 34% above the 52-wk Low ($4.42) and around 33% 
above the capitol raising issue price of $4.50...if the Dividend holds at 40c annually 
that would represent a return on the current SP ($6) of about 6.7% plus the franking 
benefits.......All looks ok to me.


----------



## ands (22 May 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Does anyone think these merger talks between Suncorp and BOQ are actually going to eventuate into anything? I understand funding for BOQ has been a problem due to their lower credit rating, but aren't Suncorp in even more trouble (massive writedowns, bad debts, CEO leaving with big payout, SPP was completed at big discount etc.). Would BOQ be the one to buy Suncorp? I hold BOQ (posted here due to the lack of discussion under the BOQ thread). 

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,25515707-14334,00.html
http://www.thesheet.com/nl06_news_selected.php?act=2&stream=1&selkey=8314&hlc=2&hlw=


----------



## stoxclimber (22 May 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ands said:


> Does anyone think these merger talks between Suncorp and BOQ are actually going to eventuate into anything? I understand funding for BOQ has been a problem due to their lower credit rating, but aren't Suncorp in even more trouble (massive writedowns, bad debts, CEO leaving with big payout, SPP was completed at big discount etc.). Would BOQ be the one to buy Suncorp? I hold BOQ (posted here due to the lack of discussion under the BOQ thread).
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,25515707-14334,00.html
> http://www.thesheet.com/nl06_news_selected.php?act=2&stream=1&selkey=8314&hlc=2&hlw=




It's possible. Rationale for BOQ would be that in buying Suncorp they'd likely get upgraded to A, means they can issue government guaranteed at 100bp fee instead of 150bp fee, and in the future with the surplus of AAA paper out there the spreads for BBB+ are unlikely to contract to previous levels, so getting the A rating can only help.

Suncorp isn't doing great, but some of the reasons you listed there are a bit inaccurate - the raising was at a big discount but it was accompanied by a ~30% EPS downgrade, so you can't just look at the discount in itself. CEO left, but a lot of the media articles at the time suggested that it was because the institutions didn't want him in charge anymore, rather than him leaving of his own choice. 

A move on Suncorp Banking by BoQ would likely spark interest from CBA & ANZ, potentially NAB, WBC would probably be unlikely. Bendigo would be another consideration as well. 

BoQ's problem is essentially that the longer nothing happens with their business, the worse it gets, due to the funding difficulties. So Project Pathways needs to amount to something or result in BoQ being acquired, otherwise the business will probably continue to deteriorate.


----------



## StockPiles (3 June 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Anyone notice the re-branding ?

Suncorp Bank

The Bank thrown on the end has been added to all their signage etc etc ..

And a new TV Advert Campaign, setting up some kind of de-merging of the Insurance and Banking sides into more focussed business entities in their own right perhaps ?

There has been a lot of commentry about the perils of Banking and Insurance being mixed together ... With the Seperate Banking entity clearly defined, perhaps Suncorp shareholders have the potential to realise more from the banking division in a take over/ merge situation ??

Food for thought anyway ..


----------



## Sean K (4 June 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Chart looks interesting to me at the moment. Downtrend seems to have been halted, now going sideways, found some support, and coming up to some significant resistance again. If she gets through there may be the start of an upward more.


----------



## Sean K (11 June 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



kennas said:


> Chart looks interesting to me at the moment. Downtrend seems to have been halted, now going sideways, found some support, and coming up to some significant resistance again. If she gets through there may be the start of an upward more.



Pushing up against that line. Has traded above, but come off. Lots of resistance there. Have to assume that if it goes through the breaks will come off. 

As I've been saying since about 3700 on the XAO though, the market's run pretty hard and needs a decent rest...


----------



## Sean K (12 June 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Potential breakout intraday, but market falling over a bit so might go with it and fail again. Encouraging. With it winding up for three months there's a pretty high probability of a decent run, if on volume and the overall market doesn't tank. Lets see how she closes....


----------



## nawshus (12 June 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



kennas said:


> Potential breakout intraday, but market falling over a bit so might go with it and fail again. Encouraging. With it winding up for three months there's a pretty high probability of a decent run, if on volume and the overall market doesn't tank. Lets see how she closes....




Hey kennas do you know why sun is going up today? this stock has always been a risky hold for me, so looking to sell at a good price.


----------



## Sean K (12 June 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



nawshus said:


> Hey kennas do you know why sun is going up today? this stock has always been a risky hold for me, so looking to sell at a good price.



The technical break through $6.50 is all I can offer. There would be a few traders looking at the $6.50 level as key and would have started buying in on the break.


----------



## skyQuake (12 June 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



nawshus said:


> Hey kennas do you know why sun is going up today? this stock has always been a risky hold for me, so looking to sell at a good price.




But the sun goes up every day (and comes down too). 

..Probably the brkout from the range, and trying to fill the gap. Volume is decent too.


----------



## Sean K (16 July 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Disappointed with that false break through $6.50 and it's just meandered sideways against this resistance zone which has turned into $6.50-6.75 ish. Higher low agin making it look pretty prospective for a decent break at some stage.


----------



## Sean K (27 July 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Broke up again a few days ago, consolidated and has now pushed higher.

Probably just due to overall market strength, but it might well have bottomed. 

Fundamentally seems to be a gobbler, but longer term technical picture looks pretty good until she drops back down through the new support.

Volume doesn't give me any confidence.


----------



## Sean K (28 July 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Respected support since the last post and continued up.

I suppose it bloody well should have considering the market.

Not as exciting as some of the 100-300% resources gains but ok nonetheless.

Volume not very impressive.


----------



## matty193 (28 July 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Agree the technical picture is looking promising here, Kennas, apart from the volume of course. 

Glad to see it appears to have hit last price before the trading halt and capital raising earlier in the year too!


----------



## Sean K (6 August 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Some speculation that private equity was running the ruler over SUN in the news yesterday probably accounts for the spike, but they hve a new CEO starting on 1 Sep, so not sure how any approach now would be handled.

Company really is in limbo. Do they sell off the insurance, sell off the banking, or just sell off? 

Happy with the break up! (circled) 

For now, market's toppish.

Edit:

This was the news article:

J.C. Flowers runs its eye over Suncorp


----------



## skc (6 August 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



kennas said:


> Some speculation that private equity was running the ruler over SUN in the news yesterday probably accounts for the spike, but they hve a new CEO starting on 1 Sep, so not sure how any approach now would be handled.
> 
> Company really is in limbo. Do they sell off the insurance, sell off the banking, or just sell off?
> 
> ...




Another spike up today. 

ANZ's name also linked up with SUN, after Mike Smith commented about bulking up ANZ's domestic banking operations. (Yesterday's AFR).

Was lucky to get a low risk position in on 23 July when the gap up was mostly filled.


----------



## So_Cynical (6 August 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

One thing for certain i got wrong over the last 9 months, is not buying anywhere near the amount of shares i really should of been buying....i think i brought like 700 bucks worth of SUN at like 4.70  silly really.

What was i thinking :dunno: the doom and gloom was so heavy back then.


----------



## matty193 (6 August 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



So_Cynical said:


> One thing for certain i got wrong over the last 9 months, is not buying anywhere near the amount of shares i really should of been buying....i think i brought like 700 bucks worth of SUN at like 4.70  silly really.
> 
> What was i thinking :dunno: the doom and gloom was so heavy back then.




It was indeed. I almost cut my losses and sold once they halved in price from $9 at one point fearing the drop would continue...

I wish I didn't stick to the advice of never averaging down... but it seems people vary in their opinions regarding such recovery tactics.


----------



## So_Cynical (6 August 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



matty193 said:


> It was indeed. I almost cut my losses and sold once they halved in price from $9 at one point fearing the drop would continue...
> 
> I wish I didn't stick to the advice of never averaging down... but it seems people vary in their opinions regarding such recovery tactics.




As i posted before...i really didn't average down enough, but thank (whatever) that i did average down in all my key stocks, as im now in profit in most and close to break even in the others...my SUN break even is about $9...SUN was my worst entry and biggest % looser.


----------



## Muschu (6 August 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

These past 5 months SUN has been my second biggest SMSF winner - not sure if that's a positive because other holdings have done better - but my conservative nature has less $$ invested in them.


----------



## asel (6 August 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

ANZ's attempted takeover of Suncorp late 2008 was thwarted by the last minute decision of the Government to establish a bank guarantee. Now that we are entering a new phase of the market and now that ANZ has completed their record-breaking share placement it is not unreasonable that Suncorp become one of the takeover targets.


----------



## SuzSmi6 (18 August 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Does anyone know if Suncorp is currently (one of the) highest dividend yielding stocks?

Today the div yield is more than 9%


----------



## skc (18 August 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



SuzSmi6 said:


> Does anyone know if Suncorp is currently (one of the) highest dividend yielding stocks?
> 
> Today the div yield is more than 9%




Final div expects to be ~20c. Annualise that you get 40c over current price ~$8 you get 5% yield.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090807/pdf/31jzgwbdttcpg4.pdf


----------



## So_Cynical (18 August 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



SuzSmi6 said:


> Does anyone know if Suncorp is currently (one of the) highest dividend yielding stocks?
> 
> Today the div yield is more than 9%




Forget the div yields u get at the stock and financial sites as they are based on divs over the last year...in general u need to look at the last div paid and simply factor that forward, and even then u may end up disappointed.


----------



## growing (20 August 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

The Price to book (PB) ratio on this stock is .66 --- .66 ????????? That makes this stock dirt cheap but as you have said .. that data is probably inaccurate like that stupid - 9% dividend figure ...

Hard to calculate an accurate Price to Book manually though ...


----------



## Sean K (8 September 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

The technical breakout mentioned above has held and just maybe the long term down trend for this puppy is over. But, I am sure with overall market sentiment it could go back into a tail spin. QLD is one sick State, and while they are so stupid to prevent uranium mining I put them in the 'deserve to go bankrupt' category. How much pain they will take in regard to housing collapses is a big question. And now we're coming up to cyclone seaon. SUN could be attacked on both fronts.

Having said that, I bought this because it just looked oversold, and on the chart.

Also, it does seem clear that this is on the raqdar for either private equity, another bank, or a break up that should release value for shareholders.

*NAB downplays its 7pc stake in Suncorp*
Richard Gluyas | September 08, 2009 
Article from:  The Australian 

NATIONAL Australia Bank caused a flurry of excitement yesterday when it revealed a 7 per cent holding in perennial takeover target Suncorp.

But the torrent of speculation subsided when the bank confirmed it was a portfolio investment by its wealth arm, MLC. 

A NAB spokesman said the notification had been triggered by a recent clarification from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission on lent securities. 

"The notice details collateral and securities lending positions associated with business-as-usual funds management and securities lending activities which are part of our custodian services business," the spokesman said. 

The news came as NAB unveiled a second bolt-on acquisition for its US-based Great Western Bank, announcing it would take control of 32 branches in Nebraska and Iowa. 

The branches, acquired from TierOne Bank for $US39 million ($45.8m), come with $US800m in selected loans and $US1.1 billion in deposits. 

In March, NAB chief executive Cameron Clyne flagged he would pursue small-scale opportunities for Great Western to build its presence in the US agricultural belt. 

Later that month, NAB announced the $US20m acquisition of 20 First Community Bank branches in Colorado, along with $US444m in loans and $US477m in deposits. 

The spokesman said yesterday that the latest deal was consistent with the strategy outlined by Mr Clyne, most recently in the bank's $2.75bn institutional and retail capital raising. 

"The opportunity represents an addition to the existing Great Western franchise in Nebraska and Iowa, which are two the most productive agricultural regions in the US, ranked second and fifth in agricultural exports," he said. 

"Great Western is only acquiring performing loans that fit our underwriting standards." 

The acquisition, according to the spokesman, would absorb 4 basis points of tier one capital, with the assets more than fully funded by deposits. Mr Clyne's predecessor, John Stewart, paid about $900m for Great Western in November 2007. 

It was a deal that attracted considerable controversy. 

Even though it was spruiked as an agri-banking acquisition, where NAB claimed it had a competitive advantage, the US subprime lending crisis had started to unfold and NAB was seen as having overpaid. Also, there were no synergies with existing operations. 

Mr Clyne, however, has started building on the base he inherited from Mr Stewart. 

Great Western president and chief executive Jeff Erickson said that, with the TierOne deal, the bank's assets would expand to $US6.5bn, with 157 branches serving 89 communities through the agricultural belt. 

"The addition of these branches is consistent with our strategic growth plans both in the Omaha metro area and in Nebraska," Mr Erickson said. 

The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to close late this year



http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26040368-643,00.html


----------



## GumbyLearner (8 September 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



mmmmining said:


> Cannot find any posting about SUN.
> 
> I am start looking for undervalued stocks outside energy and resources to balance my extremely unbalanced portfolio. I found a few. One of them is SUN.
> 
> Mix of bank and insurance business with PE at 13. The cheapest amount both bank and insurance sector. Could be a good takeover target too in the increasingly buyout environment. Let's see...




Don't you like how the bloke that started the thread mentions a P/E of 13?

What's the P/E ratio now?:horse:


----------



## Sean K (8 September 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



GumbyLearner said:


> Don't you like how the bloke that started the thread mentions a P/E of 13?
> 
> What's the P/E ratio now?:horse:



Huh? 

That was 2 1/2 years ago. 

Maybe it did have a pe of 13 back then.

Perhaps you could articulate your point with a little more clarrity.


----------



## GumbyLearner (8 September 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



kennas said:


> Huh?
> 
> That was 2 1/2 years ago.
> 
> ...




There is only one 'r' in clarity. Don't worry I'm not Julia!

Oh, really!

Two and half years ago. Are you completely sure? 

I could be wrong, but pineapples and retirees are still pineapples and retirees!

I think a P/E ratio of mid 20's is a true representation of this stocks potential for the next while.

BUT I will qualify that with DYOR!

I'm not an approved AISC financial planner, stockbroker, futures trader or economist!

Just a Gumby!



Suncorp stays solo in insurance battle
DANNY JOHN *Brisbane Times*
September 7, 2009

SUNCORP will go it alone rather than partnering either Woolworths or Coles as part of its plan to defend its 30 per cent of the insurance market against a much-mooted and large-scale entry by the two leading retailers.

The country's biggest personal insurer already provides "white label" motor, home and travel cover for big companies such as AMP, Westpac and BankWest but sees little benefit in giving a leg up to the shopping giants.

Coles is already trialling basic insurance products in a pilot project while Woolworths is expected to enter the market as part of a wider push into financial services that has so far included a credit card and a loyalty reward card points scheme.

Suncorp, whose brands include AAMI and GIO, and its biggest rival, Insurance Australia Group, owner of NRMA Insurance, are facing a new threat to their mass market business from Australia Post and Virgin following their decisions to offer car insurance.

Australia Post has teamed up with A&G Insurance to provide vehicle cover through its retail network of 4450 outlets and intends to launch a home and contents policy plus travel insurance over the coming year.

Virgin Insurance has also just launched an online service, primarily focused on Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and hopes to leverage off the group's existing profile in Australia.

But the greater dangers are posed by Coles and Woolworths through a combination of their buying power, store networks, huge marketing budgets and loyal customer bases.

One way to combat those threats, as well as shoring up a source of revenue, would be for Suncorp to offer to provide the main parts of the retailers' insurance products: underwriting cover, management and payment of claims and back-office administration.

But while not ruling out the possibility, Bernadette Inglis, Suncorp's head of personal lines insurance division, told BusinessDay the group was a retailer in its chosen market as much as Woolworths and Coles were in theirs.

"We are not closed to these alternatives but we are a retailer and a consumer retailer at that, and see our business continuing as a direct relationship with our customers," she said.

While appreciating the threat posed by Australia Post and the two retailers, Ms Inglis said the domestic industry was different from overseas markets.

About 80 per cent of Australian customers dealt directly with their insurance companies rather than through brokers


----------



## oldblue (8 September 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Well, of course it's very easy to double your P/E - just halve your earnings!

The major banks and top line insurers such as QBE are trading on P/E's in the 10-14 range. No takeover speculation there, of course!


----------



## growing (14 September 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I would have thought NAB would have a go.. NAB needs to do something to keep pace with the market share dominated by "the big 2" CBA and Westpac


----------



## growing (29 September 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Wow this stock is off and running at last...

Hooker corp ? I don't know if it can cause this kind of rally ?


----------



## matty193 (29 September 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I posted this one in the potential breakout thread a week ago:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5351&page=76

Looks like it has shot through a bit today. We'll see if some support can be established around $8.50


----------



## So_Cynical (30 September 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



matty193 said:


> I posted this one in the potential breakout thread a week ago:
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5351&page=76
> 
> Looks like it has shot through a bit today. We'll see if some support can be established around $8.50




Was thinking the other day that with the annual dividend looking to be around 40 cents for the foreseeable future...its hard to see the SP staying over 9 or 10 dollars, unless the takeover speculation takes off.


----------



## Sean K (1 October 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



kennas said:


> Chart looks interesting to me at the moment. Downtrend seems to have been halted, now going sideways, found some support, and coming up to some significant resistance again. If she gets through there may be the start of an upward more.



This has been handy since breaking up from that sideways movement. 

Just been moving with the market I suppose but maybe the breakup and takeover talk has given it some support.

Nice upward trend line here, but that's unsustainable for ever of course, must go through some more significant consolidation at some point. Perhaps when the overall market decides to take a decent rest...


----------



## skc (1 October 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



kennas said:


> This has been handy since breaking up from that sideways movement.
> 
> Just been moving with the market I suppose but maybe the breakup and takeover talk has given it some support.
> 
> Nice upward trend line here, but that's unsustainable for ever of course, must go through some more significant consolidation at some point. Perhaps when the overall market decides to take a decent rest...




See that nice candle wick at $7.25 ish? That's me being stopped out 

Looking for some retracement to get back in. Words on the street is that ANZ is eyeing them. Personally can't see that in the immediate future given ACCC concerns and the fact that ANZ need some time sorting out ING first.


----------



## growing (7 October 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Up over $9 today and holding $9.00 on closing !!

There certainly must be optimism built into the share price, as the economy improves further and IF Suncorp can improve profits, we can expect a bonus cash dividend payment in accordance with a previously released statement by John Story earlier this year 

Then there is the takeover speculation to consider, so a good upward trending stock if you ask me 

ANZ and/or NAB have to grab more market share somehow


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 November 2009)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



growing said:


> Up over $9 today and holding $9.00 on closing !!
> 
> There certainly must be optimism built into the share price, as the economy improves further and IF Suncorp can improve profits, we can expect a bonus cash dividend payment in accordance with a previously released statement by John Story earlier this year
> 
> ...




Its in an interesting channel at present. I wouldn't be surprised for it to jump twice the depth of the present channel when the takeover bid comes.

I've been accumulating.

gg


----------



## matty193 (22 January 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Interesting watching SUN this week, showing a bit of strength compared to the other banks.

The Chartist on Jan 11 put a target of $10.50 from a technical perspective if it surges through $9.00. While I wouldn't say a "surge" has occurred, a breakout of the symmetrical triangle presented here is promising. Hopefully we can see some support around the $9.00 mark after today's fall with the rest of the market.


----------



## Snakey (15 March 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Hello all 
This one may have some exposure to a new cyclone forming of the east coast of Queensland

"HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1851 UTC 14 March 2010

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului was centred within 20 nautical miles of
 latitude thirteen decimal zero south [13.0S]
 longitude one hundred and sixty decimal zero east [160.0E]
Recent movement : west at 5 knots
Maximum winds   : 105 knots
Central pressure: 935 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre."

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20008.txt


----------



## So_Cynical (15 March 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Snakey said:


> Hello all
> This one may have some exposure to a new cyclone forming of the east coast of Queensland



The Victorian flash flood and wild weather the other week cost em 200 mill...Suncorp may be Brisbane based, but have no doubt they have Aust wide exposure.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...ys-vic-storms-to-cost-200m-20100315-q9fg.html


----------



## ers_6 (17 March 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

When's the takeover bid coming?
Its at an appealing price currently and the recent weather activity may cause further southward movement.

People's thoughts....


----------



## oldblue (17 March 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



ers_6 said:


> When's the takeover bid coming?
> Its at an appealing price currently and the recent weather activity may cause further southward movement.
> 
> People's thoughts....




Who would be interested and why?

All the signals from the authorities are that the big banks are big enough (too big?) as it is and that the takeovers of St George and BankWest were probably only possible because of the GFC. Would any of the regionals be able or willing? Personally, I doubt it.

SUN's insurance business might appeal, at a price, but that would leave a small stand-alone bank operation. That's possible, I guess.


----------



## alphaman (17 March 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I guess QBE and BOQ could be interested in carving up SUN. I'm not sure if their business models fit though.


----------



## Muschu (17 March 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

SUN has shown great growth since March of last year.  I sold in January and thought SUN would have dropped further.  It has proven very resilient.  I suspect it would take a major downturn to further damage the SP.  And I may be totally wrong.


----------



## Muschu (6 April 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

There seems to be a reasonable theme in this thread that SUN will be a takeover target.  Are there any further thoughts along these lines?  Comments appreciated.


----------



## oldblue (6 April 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Who do you see as a potential predator as far as SUN is concerned?

There seems to be a fair bit of consensus around the view that the authorities are concerned about the concentration of business in the hands of the big four banks; that the takeovers of BankWest and St George were only approved because of concerns about the GFC - and are now regretted; that further moves, at least on the regional banks by the big boys are unlikely to be approved.

That leaves the regionals. BOQ? Bendigo?

Anyone else?


----------



## So_Cynical (4 December 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



So_Cynical said:


> *(1st-March-2008)* Lets face it...anyone buying at the moment is bottom picking...(trying to pick the bottom)
> 
> I brought into SUN at 14.45 *28/02/08* so clearly missed the current bottom of 13.90.
> 
> ...






So_Cynical said:


> *(8th-May-2008)* I got in about the same time u did Andy...so todays high, about 10 weeks after buying in was good to see...for the first time with SUN, im in the money.
> 
> Value is Value.
> 
> ...








So_Cynical said:


> *(1st-August-2008)* More than happy to hold....today's ann was somewhat expected by the market, and subsequent
> price action was pretty much a confirmation of the support at around $11...today's lows were about the same as we saw 4 months ago.
> 
> We have seen the worst for SUN and it wasn't that bad....for those of us that got in cheaply in the last 5 months or so.






So_Cynical said:


> *(5th-Feb-2009)* Timings all important...i was lucky i didn't get my modest average down order filled this week, SP would almost certainly fall below the 4.50 new issue price when trading resumes.
> 
> On the positive side of things...SUN will be well funded and still profitable and still with good prospects going forward, the doom and gloom wont last forever...however its gona be a long time till i see a profit with SUN.
> 
> ...







So_Cynical said:


> *(23rd-April-2009)* The 3 month chart looks much better than the 3 year one...and that goes for all the financial's not just SUN....glass half full factors going forward.
> 
> Currently SUN is trading about 34% above the 52-wk Low ($4.42) and around 33% above the capitol raising issue price of $4.50...if the Dividend holds at 40c annually that would represent a return on the current SP ($6) of about 6.7% plus the franking benefits.......All looks ok to me.






So_Cynical said:


> *(6th-August-2009)* One thing for certain i got wrong over the last 9 months, is not buying anywhere near the amount of shares i really should of been buying....i think i brought like 700 bucks worth of SUN at like 4.70  silly really.
> 
> What was i thinking :dunno: the doom and gloom was so heavy back then.






So_Cynical said:


> *(6th-August-2009)* As i posted before...i really didn't average down enough, but thank (whatever) that i did average down in all my key stocks, as im now in profit in most and close to break even in the others...my SUN break even is about $9...SUN was my worst entry and biggest % looser.




Its somewhat possible to follow my development as a share market punter in this thread...its clear from my early posts that i really didn't have a clue, i had confidence but clearly not a clue as to what was happening with regards to sentiment at the time.

Anyway my average buy in price for sun is $9.80 so i have recently been in profit with it and at these price levels am close to break even...however ill wait for the SP to break above $12 before doing any selling as i want to keep the bulk of my cheap shares.

Still lots to like about the insurance business in general, and some upside potential for the Dividend going forward i would think....3 year chart of all my SUN activity below.
~


----------



## Muschu (26 December 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Commsec is showing SUN as an invalid code this morning. Anyone know why please?
Statement reads:
"No entries matched your specified code. Please use the search facility to find your desired code."


----------



## Julia (26 December 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Rick, the same occurs on Etrade.  When I did a search for "Suncorp" the attached is a screenshot of about half the entries that came up!


----------



## boofhead (26 December 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Suncorp-Metway Limited is now Suncorp Group Limited. Lots off ASX releases on the 24th of December. When I logged in to Commsec I noticed my overall position was unexpected until I noticed the SUN price of 0.00. Next trading day or so I expect things to fix up. It will be using the same ASX code.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=SUN


----------



## Muschu (26 December 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Thanks BH and Julia.  I thought Santa may have given SUN to CBA for Xmas......


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (26 December 2010)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

I have had a consistent line on SUN, varied since we went decimal, buy between 4 and 8, sell at 16.

Mugs in the pot between 8 and 16.

gg


----------



## So_Cynical (11 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

In very late today at $8.17  i figured the biggest SP falls happen on the day of the disaster/s so hopeful that theory proves to be correct over the coming days and weeks, this is a big average down for me in the expectation that over the next 6 or 8 months i can turn my long suffering SUN position around and finally get some closure.  SUN is now my biggest single holding making up over 12% of my portfolio.

My average Price has come down to $9.06


----------



## pixel (11 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



So_Cynical said:


> In very late today at $8.17  i figured the biggest SP falls happen on the day of the disaster/s so hopeful that theory proves to be correct over the coming days and weeks, this is a big average down for me in the expectation that over the next 6 or 8 months i can turn my long suffering SUN position around and finally get some closure.  SUN is now my biggest single holding making up over 12% of my portfolio.
> 
> My average Price has come down to $9.06



 Good luck, S_C,
I hope I'm wrong, but on another forum, I explained my view that SUN may still have more downside to come. A chance that it found support at current levels does exist, but I find it rather slim.
The nearest support I can see is around $7.50-$7.60. Look back over the last 12 months, and you'll find it's been supported around those levels from June onwards.
If that support were broken, and I could see some more fundamental reasons coming out of Queensland, the next level would be at least $2 lower. See weekly chart.
Currently, I don't have any position, neither Long nor Short; at this stage, I'd be reluctant to bid more than $7.50, and even that bid would be pulled if the drop continued too fast for my liking.


----------



## So_Cynical (11 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



pixel said:


> The nearest support I can see is around $7.50-$7.60. Look back over the last 12 months, and you'll find it's been supported around those levels from June onwards.




I must admit it was a very rushed decision on my part and was purely based on my disaster spike/sell down theory, figuring the panic type sellers would of been shaken out of the stock today. :dunno: time will tell all of course.


----------



## Julia (11 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Good luck with it So Cynical.  Your approach has worked well for you in the past.


----------



## skc (12 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



So_Cynical said:


> I must admit it was a very rushed decision on my part and was purely based on my disaster spike/sell down theory, figuring the panic type sellers would of been shaken out of the stock today. :dunno: time will tell all of course.




Flooding will peak tomorrow so the bad news will only be flushed out fully by early next week I think.

For longer term insurers will simply collect higher premium over time to recoup the payouts for the current event. In fact my understanding is that many people in QLD don't have flood insurance (which requires additional extra).

With SUN however there's still the banking side which will run into trouble as well, with people unable to pay their mortgages / small business loans due to the flood.


----------



## So_Cynical (12 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



skc said:


> Flooding will peak tomorrow so the bad news will only be flushed out fully by early next week I think.




I figure the market is forward thinking enough to factor in the negatives well ahead of the reality....SUN released a Claims Update for South East Queensland at 4.47 PM predicting a pre tax cost of between 130 and 150 mill.

Be interesting to see if the SP hold up tomorrow as well as it did today, holding above the $8 mark as i thought it would...tomorrow is another day.

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NzcyNDR8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1


----------



## Julia (12 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



So_Cynical said:


> ....SUN released a Claims Update for South East Queensland at 4.47 PM predicting a pre tax cost of between 130 and 150 mill.



That sounds unreasonably low.  And I don't know how they can even begin to anticipate what it might be when the whole Brisbane situation has to far to play out.


----------



## sptrawler (13 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Forgive my ignorance, but does flooding come under " act of god " unless otherwise stipulated


----------



## So_Cynical (14 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



sptrawler said:


> Forgive my ignorance, but does flooding come under " act of god " unless otherwise stipulated




I think its an act of god...unless of course the drains over fill, cant cope or get blocked then its an act of incompetence or bad planning not gods.

--------------------------------------



So_Cynical said:


> (Tuesday) In very late today at $8.17  i figured the biggest SP falls happen on the day of the disaster/s so hopeful that theory proves to be correct over the coming days and weeks.




$8.05 was the bottom on Wednesday then Thursday saw a top of $8.50 and today's close $8.40 would suggest that the worst is over and looks like my bottom pick was about right....$9.50 here we come.


----------



## skc (14 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Julia said:


> That sounds unreasonably low.  And I don't know how they can even begin to anticipate what it might be when the whole Brisbane situation has to far to play out.




Many people don't have insurance period. SUN should be able to quite quickly calculate how many policies they hold in the affected areas and how much each is insured in terms of content insurance. In fact, they should have models suggesting what the payout of certain flood events should be - that's how they work out the premium in the first place.

IAG brands policies don't offer flood insurance as standard, whereas SUN does. Some SUN guy just went on TV to say they are covered regardless whether the water comes from above, below, left or right... there is no debate whether it's flood, storm water, man made error or act of God.

I am guessing that IAG will lose some market share in the long term as people get angry about not being covered, whereas SUN will get more business at a higher premium. (Although I think they mis-priced this event).


----------



## So_Cynical (14 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



skc said:


> Many people don't have insurance period. SUN should be able to quite quickly calculate how many policies they hold in the affected areas and how much each is insured in terms of content insurance. In fact, they should have models suggesting what the payout of certain flood events should be - that's how they work out the premium in the first place.
> 
> IAG brands policies don't offer flood insurance as standard, whereas SUN does. Some SUN guy just went on TV to say they are covered regardless whether the water comes from above, below, left or right... there is no debate whether it's flood, storm water, man made error or act of God.
> 
> I am guessing that IAG will lose some market share in the long term as people get angry about not being covered, whereas SUN will get more business at a higher premium. (Although I think they mis-priced this event).




People so often buy insurance based on price alone when really its about the fundamentals...insurance is needed to cover negative events and worst case scenarios and insurance at any price that doesn't cover that, is insurance that's not worth having.


----------



## skc (19 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

Secondary effects of the flood surfacing...

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...of-loans-at-risk/story-e6frg8zx-1225990589981



> THE Queensland floods crisis could put nearly $5 billion worth of mortgages and commercial loans at risk of default, as the financial fallout mounts from the worst natural disaster in the state in nearly three decades.


----------



## Calliope (19 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



skc said:


> I am guessing that IAG will lose some market share in the long term as people get angry about not being covered, whereas SUN will get more business at a higher premium. (Although I think they mis-priced this event).




You pay for what you get whether it's IAG or Suncorp.


----------



## So_Cynical (19 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



skc said:


> IAG brands policies don't offer flood insurance as standard, whereas SUN does. Some SUN guy just went on TV to say they are covered regardless whether the water comes from above, below, left or right... there is no debate whether it's flood, storm water, man made error or act of God.
> 
> I am guessing that IAG will lose some market share in the long term as people get angry about not being covered, whereas SUN will get more business at a higher premium. (Although I think they mis-priced this event).




I had a bit of a chuckle tonight watching the news...there were some people complaining that they were having a little trouble getting money out of there insurance company because water damage from a rising creek/river is not considered to be a flood. one old guy got a shock after being told that his insurance cover was only good up to 15K as that was the maximum claim for flooding.

The camera panned down his letter from the insurance company to reveal that it was from Real insurance http://www.realinsurance.com.au/  people think that they are saving money by buying cheap insurance, and they are saving money right up to the time when they actually need to make a claim...then they find out that there decision to save money on a premium comes at a very real cost. 

And SUN still holding well above $8 per share.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



So_Cynical said:


> I had a bit of a chuckle tonight watching the news...there were some people complaining that they were having a little trouble getting money out of there insurance company because water damage from a rising creek/river is not considered to be a flood. one old guy got a shock after being told that his insurance cover was only good up to 15K as that was the maximum claim for flooding.
> 
> The camera panned down his letter from the insurance company to reveal that it was from Real insurance http://www.realinsurance.com.au/  people think that they are saving money by buying cheap insurance, and they are saving money right up to the time when they actually need to make a claim...then they find out that there decision to save money on a premium comes at a very real cost.
> 
> And SUN still holding well above $8 per share.




I still reckon you'll get it below 8$, see my previous posts on SUN. Before it gets taken out by one of the banks.

gg


----------



## oldblue (20 January 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I still reckon you'll get it below 8$, see my previous posts on SUN. Before it gets taken out by one of the banks.
> 
> gg




Well, it would take another govt policy U turn - not out of the question of course - for one of the four pillars to be allowed to acquire SUN.

I don't see the regionals as potential predators.


----------



## So_Cynical (8 February 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



So_Cynical said:


> (11th-January-2011)In very late today at $8.17  i figured the biggest SP falls happen on the day of the disaster/s so hopeful that theory proves to be correct over the coming days and weeks, this is a big average down for me in the expectation that over the next 6 or 8 months i can turn my long suffering SUN position around and finally get some closure.  SUN is now my biggest single holding making up over 12% of my portfolio.
> 
> My average Price has come down to $9.06




A little less than 1 month later and im out today ($8.77) for 60 CPS profit....1 month for a return that's greater than the last 3 net dividends (18 months worth) combined.  yet another no brainer/easy money trade.

Sure i was a little worried Yasi would spoil my party, and she did a little, but really was just a delay...a trade that should of taken 2 or 3 weeks took 4...i should clarify that i decided to exit in the belief that the SUN SP can go either way from here, another flood or hail storm and the SP could easy visit $8.05 again...so i decided to err on the side of caution, besides i think the market in general is toppy.

Now due to taxation concerns im not actually going to pocket any profit and in stead will leave the profit in by reducing my cost base, i will sell shares from this parcel and my most expensive parcel....so statistically 1 winner and 1 loser, leaving me with no overall capital gain but a slightly reduced cost per share for my long term SUN holding.

At least that's how it works in my head. :dunno:


----------



## skc (9 February 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



So_Cynical said:


> A little less than 1 month later and im out today ($8.77) for 60 CPS profit....1 month for a return that's greater than the last 3 net dividends (18 months worth) combined.  yet another no brainer/easy money trade.




Hind sight is a wonderful thing. 

There was no way for you to know what sort of damage the Brisbane flood and Yasi would have done. The only way for that to be a good trade is that you know what their re-insurance policy coverage was like and what those limits were. This would only be a good trade if you worked out that, even if Brisbane flood and Yasi costed SUN $1B the company is still a bargain at $8.17...

Just because a trade worked in your favour doesn't mean it was a good trade... but I take it all back if you actually knew any of the above.

How can a trade not be a good trade even if it worked in your favour? For example, I am offered a bet on a single coin toss. Heads I win $10. Tails I lose $50. I accepted the bet, and head came out.... did I make the right decision just because I won $10??


----------



## 6figures (22 February 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

bought in at $8.32... 

any thoughts in SUN? after floods and Yasi.. and now a drop today after NZ earth quake.. i knw IAG and SUN cover 60% of NZ however NZ covers first 100k for home damage.. 

SUN is also reporting their half yr profits tomorow... thoughts?


----------



## So_Cynical (22 February 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*



skc said:


> Hind sight is a wonderful thing.
> 
> There was no way for you to know what sort of damage the Brisbane flood and Yasi would have done. The only way for that to be a good trade is that you know what their re-insurance policy coverage was like and what those limits were. This would only be a good trade if you worked out that, even if Brisbane flood and Yasi costed SUN $1B the company is still a bargain at $8.17...
> 
> Just because a trade worked in your favour doesn't mean it was a good trade... but I take it all back if you actually knew any of the above.




Some how i missed your post skc...as a long time holder of SUN i knew that they have extensive single event disaster reinsurance...but that's not the main reason i took the trade, this trade was a little fundamental in that on the day of the Toowoomba flood, by mid afternoon it was clear to me that this major rainfall event was disastrous in size.

Now i figured that if i knew it was a disaster then other punters would also be a wake up to what was happening and as a result the SUN SP would be in free fall mode...i logged onto comsec thinking the SP would be below $8 and was stunned to see it down a little and trading at about $8.30..this was at about 2.45 PM or so.

I was at work so got busy with other stuff thinking ill look at the SP again in a half hour or so..checked back to see the SP down to around $8.20 and thought to myself it will sell off into the close....now it got down to about 8.10 at around 3.40 and started to rally a little over the next 5 minutes so i figured. 

That's it...the panic sellers are finished and the smart money is moving in..i placed a buy order at 2 cents under the last sale, at about 3.55 PM and didn't know till i got home that i got filled, i was confident that SUN had found bottom before i took the trade....it was a good trade  no 2 ways about it...the price action since i sold is making the exit look pretty good too.


----------



## So_Cynical (17 March 2011)

*Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway*

One good thing about the market tanking over the last week or so is that the SUN dividend reinvestment price is determined by the average price over the 10 trading days commencing March 9.

At the moment its looking like the issue price will be around $8 maybe a touch under.


----------



## fleetz (14 July 2011)

SBKPB Maturity?

The SUN group hybrid CPS mature on 14th June 2013 and I am trying to confirm if the  shares are redeemed for cash at their face value at maturity?

Anyone able to clarify what the maturity situation is?

Regards,

Fleetz


----------



## kristianp (22 February 2012)

Suncorp announces results that exceed expectations, increases interim dividend to 20c, yet the share price drops by 1.9%.  What's up with that?


----------



## McLovin (22 February 2012)

I haven't read the result, just smh.com.au but this might be the reason...



> The company’s result included a $63 million in gains from the sale of property and equipment, while the previous corresponding period included a $106 million loss on disposal of interests in various subsidiaries.




Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/earn...t-forecasts-20120222-1tmm9.html#ixzz1n3zVvJ7c


----------



## So_Cynical (24 May 2012)

I topped up my Suncorp holding today...based on the rationale that below $7.70 is/has been the buy zone over the last 32 months and i see no reason why it wont prove to be again.

Sun has an interesting 3 year chart, clearly trending sideways but with some quite large swings in both directions, overall some very choppy price action showing that buying in at any of the significant low points gives opportunities for profit.

I just keep buying the lows as i see em..just keep plodding along.
~


----------



## So_Cynical (1 September 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> (24th-May-2012) I topped up my Suncorp holding today...based on the rationale that below $7.70 is/has been the buy zone over the last 32 months and i see no reason why it wont prove to be again.
> 
> Sun has an interesting 3 year chart, clearly trending sideways but with some quite large swings in both directions, overall some very choppy price action showing that buying in at any of the significant low points gives opportunities for profit.
> 
> ...




Another one i got right (the last 2 buys anyway )....i sold about half my SUN shares today @ $9.11 ~  in a major readjustment of my SUN holdings, i got the recent dividends and have dropped out of the dividend reinvestment plan after 3 years of participation.

I have sold 6 of my 10 parcels including 2 losing parcels to reduce my holding price to just $6.63 while realising a 4.36% trade profit across the 6 parcels, will hold the rest of my shares for yield even though i have only 10% free carry...looking to enter again at under $8.

Its been an educational 4 and a half year adventure.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 January 2013)

SUN has always good to me. I was in the original float, got some more via Promina holdings and usually accumulate when it retreats or recovers to $8.00

It has been doing very very well recently, the pick of the insurance stocks imo.

A long term chart over 13-14 years.

It would be nice to to see $24 again






gg


----------



## piggybank (23 November 2013)




----------



## CptSmooth (29 November 2013)

piggybank said:


> View attachment 55479




No follow through on that unfortunately.  I took a medium term long option, not a great couple days for it so far


----------



## clayton4115 (8 February 2014)

pretty bearish ?


----------



## coolcup (8 February 2014)

clayton4115 said:


> View attachment 56739
> 
> 
> pretty bearish ?




Hi Clayton

Just for my benefit - what is the bottom indicator on your chart?


----------



## Muschu (9 February 2014)

This was/is a great stock but the volatility just got too much for an older person ..


----------



## So_Cynical (9 February 2014)

Muschu said:


> This was/is a great stock but the volatility just got too much for an *older person* ..




Just keep buying the lows and wait...i really think that even an "old person" needs some exposure to volatility.


----------



## clayton4115 (9 February 2014)

coolcup said:


> Hi Clayton
> 
> Just for my benefit - what is the bottom indicator on your chart?




hi coolcup, it is CCI


----------



## coolcup (9 February 2014)

clayton4115 said:


> hi coolcup, it is CCI




Many thanks Clayton. Excuse my ignorance but I am fairly new to charting. What is CCI?


----------



## clayton4115 (9 February 2014)

it is called Commodity Channel Index, similar to RSI just google it, alot of information on it.


----------



## rimtas (9 October 2014)

While browsing blue chip stocks I've came across SUN as having one of the clearest wave structures on the market, almost textbook. This enables me to throw a forecast what could happen next on the highest probability basis using Wave Principle as guide. 

I must note that I do not hold this stock at the moment, sold it just before last dividend ex date(I never take dividends). It was quite an easy to make profit on this stock so I am keeping a close eye maybe the future will throw a nice entry setup somewhere next year.

In the first chart you can see how SUN made nicely  three waves up, even subdivisions are clear. This foretells that a rise is over and a stock is poised to go down to test 2009 low in the years to come. This bearish scenario will gain a lot of weight if stock closes below $9.8  thus overlapping with a (A) wave high. First indication of this drop could be the Impulse channel break and retest it from below, that's where long term investors should throw their investments or stop averaging down as  much lower prices will be on the table later. The wave structure is the key-we need 5 waves down to confirm the trend up is over.








Other scenario is still bullish longer term and SUN made only 3 waves out of 5. So I am looking here for some sort of correction which could extend in time towards the lower Impulse Channel but not brake it. It could be a Triangle, Flat or Expandet Flat, total of 11 variations available what form it could take so it is almost impossible to predict when it ends until it is not over.  But if SUN  keeps on going with the textbook pattern further, IT should end on the lower channel, about one year from now in a  $12-13 zone.  And then thrust higher  to new highs in the final leg of advance .

So basically trading strategy is simple here-hold , collect dividends and add if channel holds. Or hold, collect dividends and sell if channel breaks and 9.8 level is breached. Basically all stops should be placed at this level because it is the last frontier for bull trend to hold.  Wave (4)_ can_ drop to this level, but not below. 





So shorter term (next few quarters) both variants are bearish. There is a small probability for wave 5(of(3)) could be extended where the stock _could _accelerate towards 2007 high without a one year correction, but it is not a textbook pattern so I stick to one of those variants discussed above.

Cheers


----------



## TPI (1 November 2014)

Foreign insurers coming down under, time to short?


----------



## rimtas (5 June 2015)

It's been more than half  year since my last analysis and the stock seems to have not moved much since then.  What is important that SUN was resisting a rally that a broader market had in the start of the year, meaning that market recognizes the Aug 2014 Top as important.  

One may say that this sideways /down movement from the Top can be considered as a correction, but from the Elliot Wave perspective SUN sported an Expanding Leading Diagonal, consisting of 3's, which is a valid pattern to make a further forecast. Leading Diagonals, especially Expanding Ones, can be found at Important Tops. They carry a message of the rapid accelerated decline, so current subdivisions best looks like series first and second Waves down, with the third on the horizon. 

I presented two possible scenarios in my  analysis last year, and there is still no confirmation which one is at work. But medium term SUN should decline fast(compare to how it moved in the past 7 months) and slice down through 11,7 support.  At the moment I count the bearish scenario, one that could possibly subdivide into full five wave decline ending somewhere around ~$10 in the months to come. Bullish scenario has the same or a bit higher  decline target, just wave subdivisions should be corrective. 

So probably sometimes later this year or mid of 2016 I can assess what waves are telling for the long term, but one must be aware that if bearish scenario develops, SUN is going to fall far below 2009 bottom of $4,3. In a bullish case $9,7 level will not be reached and SUN starts working it's way higher  from the bottom of the drop that is fast approaching. 

This analysis would be derailed if SUN manages to climb above wave 2 high of $14,2 from here, which is a low probability scenario.


----------



## peter2 (15 April 2016)

I like this weeks break-out. First target is the gap fill to 13.00 which provides a good RR for the trade.


----------



## Quant (3 August 2016)

peter2 said:


> I like this weeks break-out. First target is the gap fill to 13.00 which provides a good RR for the trade.
> 
> View attachment 66286




Nice trade Pete , in the zone to go the other way , report shortly ( tommorow )  , i think its overshot and will need a killer beat to maintain the trend . I am liking the fade here


----------



## peter2 (3 August 2016)

That's a bold decision just before news and against the market moving up.


----------



## Quant (3 August 2016)

peter2 said:


> That's a bold decision just before news and against the market moving up.




Not something i havent done 100 times before , time will tell , It is what it is . Technicals coming up against headwinds and fundamentals indicating fully priced . I am not a breakout trader  , i sell upmoves and buy downmoves , its what i do


----------



## Quant (4 September 2016)

SUN be getting in reversal zone around Sept Opex  , alerts set low 12's


----------



## Quant (28 September 2016)

Quant said:


> SUN be getting in reversal zone around Sept Opex  , alerts set low 12's




another retraced nicely , no shorts now , looking for the buy setup


----------



## Quant (9 February 2017)

SUN results out and i see as underwhelming  , the smart bail was a month back , i see the slide continuing after div


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 October 2017)

Solid set up.  Tgt 13.75.


----------



## peter2 (4 October 2017)

GB I think you should do better than that.

SUN was a shining light for me earlier in the year (bullish bars on the weekly chart). Then it's insurance division had problems with excessive payouts due to natural disasters. Price moved impulsively lower and seemed to have found support at 12.50. 

The recent basing pattern seems solid and the BO-HR looks promising. There are two gaps in the daily chart that need to be filled and I'd target the higher one if I were to trade it. I'm not as I won't trade insurance companies anymore. 

The other concern for me is that the subsequent price action in any rally could be corrective (after the impulsive move down) which can be messy. The higher gap fill also lines up with the 61.8 retracement level of the swing down. 

It's also interesting that both SUN and QBE are up today when the market is down. The RSC(XAO) top pane also confirms that SUN is stronger than the XAO over the last 21d.


----------



## Porper (4 October 2017)

I took a look at the weekly chart yesterday. Corrective higher, impulsive down  = further weakness ahead. Potential "Buy Zone" either side of $11.00.


----------



## peter2 (4 October 2017)

Thanks Porper. I often overlook the much larger chart. I agree with your outlook. 
There's room for a small counter trend trade long within the larger pattern.


----------



## Ann (20 March 2019)

SUN listed on January 2nd 1992 its initial price was 0.98c it closed today at $13.22


----------



## So_Cynical (20 March 2019)

Ann said:


> SUN listed on January 2nd 1992 its initial price was 0.98c it closed today at $13.22
> 
> View attachment 93122



Provably paid a little less than Telstra in dividends but the capital growth has been massive in comparison - keeping in mind that they came close to going under in the GFC.


----------



## Miner (29 May 2019)

Ann said:


> SUN listed on January 2nd 1992 its initial price was 0.98c it closed today at $13.22
> 
> View attachment 93122



In around 1992, when I arrived in Australia as a skilled migrant (but with no job  ) I remember Commonwealth was floated @$2 IPO


----------



## Ann (1 June 2019)

Miner said:


> In around 1992, when I arrived in Australia as a skilled migrant (but with no job  ) I remember Commonwealth was floated @$2 IPO



No, not quite so generous, it floated in 1991 for $5.40. It was an excellent float and once it listed it never fell back to the issue price, it got to a low of $6.30 and never looked back!


----------



## Miner (1 June 2019)

Ann said:


> No, not quite so generous, it floated in 1991 for $5.40. It was an excellent float and once it listed it never fell back to the issue price, it got to a low of $6.30 and never looked back!



Thanks Ann. I was holding this mythical belief for 27 years to be smashed. You are Steffi Graf


----------



## Clansman (2 June 2019)

Ann said:


> No, not quite so generous, it floated in 1991 for $5.40. It was an excellent float and once it listed it never fell back to the issue price, it got to a low of $6.30 and never looked back!




APA is another in that bracket.  Has never been back near the issue price and possibly not near any of the prices of any of the other raisings.


----------



## Ann (2 June 2019)

Clansman said:


> APA is another in that bracket.  Has never been back near the issue price and possibly not near any of the prices of any of the other raisings.




Sorry folks, I have dragged this off topic, I will stop after this. APA wasn't quite as successful in the beginning, its IPO was $2 a unit on June 2000, my chart shows a close of $1.75 on the day of listing, it didn't get above and stay above $2 until October 2000. Only this month did it close at its all time high of $10.40. A lot better than some though!


----------



## Miner (2 June 2019)

Ann said:


> Sorry folks, I have dragged this off topic, I will stop after this. APA wasn't quite as successful in the beginning, its IPO was $2 a unit on June 2000, my chart shows a close of $1.75 on the day of listing, it didn't get above and stay above $2 until October 2000. Only this month did it close at its all time high of $10.40. A lot better than some though!



Sorry folks. It was me and not @Ann .
I started referencing CBA  on SUN topic and since that the discussions were off track.
Let's the SUN shines


----------



## Chief_Wigam (11 February 2020)

Thanks Ann but your x-axis looks odd. Sep 17 to Jul 19 to Nov 20???

I do see earlier postings in 2017 when results came out and were impacted by natural disasters, support was found around $12.50. Looks almost identical to what is happening now.

The 2017 and 2018 charts are quite similar and in both years there were price rises during the middle of the year


----------



## UMike (31 October 2021)

Took a small stab at this Friday.
Hoping for a Christmas Rally and be out in less than 6 months.


----------



## sptrawler (4 March 2022)

Could be a few Insurance claims in the pipeline for SUN, not the least of which would be VE Commodores with stretched timing chains. 🤣 









						Hundreds Of VE Commodores With Stretched Timing Chains Mysteriously End Up In Low-Lying Parts Of Brisbane
					

More to come.




					www.betootaadvocate.com


----------



## divs4ever (4 March 2022)

maybe that is why a nave never bought a Holden   , when i grew up they came with pre-installed rust 

 i guess all those extra feature  made them unattractive to me 

 damn shame ( in hindsight ) i didn't buy CWY shares


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (4 March 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Could be a few Insurance claims in the pipeline for SUN, not the least of which would be VE Commodores with stretched timing chains. 🤣
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Thanks @sptrawler .

I stopped at Betoota last year on a trip out to Windorah for the Winter Olympics Australian Trials ( which by the way used artificial snow ) to boost our chances in Beijing. 

The editorial team at the Betoota Advocate discussed with me this stretched timing chain issue and the parking of Commodores at the bottom of hills in Brisbane. 

As a SUN shareholder I of course alerted their Risk Committee and I believe they have reinsurance with a respected London Insurance Company , Abramovich Finance and Re. 

SUN shareholders can sleep in their Commodores on high ground again in safety.

gg


----------



## divs4ever (4 March 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> As a SUN shareholder I of course alerted their Risk Committee and I believe they have reinsurance with a respected London Insurance Company , Abramovich Finance and Re.




 ???

 maybe NOT !!

 watch this company  , ( think Russian sanctions )

DYOR


----------



## divs4ever (4 March 2022)

Exclusive-Chelsea FC's banker says Abramovich's exit will not be rushed









						Exclusive-Chelsea FC's banker says Abramovich's exit will not be rushed By Reuters
					

Exclusive-Chelsea FC's banker says Abramovich's exit will not be rushed




					www.investing.com
				




 DYOR


----------



## divs4ever (1 April 2022)

Completion of the Australian Wealth business sale
Suncorp (ASX: SUN | ADR: SNMCY) today announced the successful completion of the sale of its Australian
Wealth business, Suncorp Portfolio Services Limited (SPSL), to LGIAsuper.
Based on current estimates, total consideration is expected to be $55 million in cash. The impact of the
transaction on Group profit is expected to be broadly neutral.
Suncorp Group CEO Steve Johnston said the completion of the sale was an important strategic milestone for the
Group.
“The Wealth sale is a good outcome for our members, people and shareholders. It enables us to sharpen our
focus on the Group’s core businesses of banking and insurance and improve the way we deliver for our
customers,” Mr Johnston said.
“I’m pleased that our Wealth business is in good shape as we hand over to LGIAsuper. We have simplified the
business to improve its overall performance, resolved historic remediation matters and we are delivering healthy
investment returns to members.
“Suncorp’s 130,000 superannuation members will now join a larger and more sustainable super fund which
manages around $31 billion in retirement savings for its members.”
Authorised for lodgement with the ASX by the Suncorp Disclosure Committee.

==================================================================================

DYOR

i hold SUN

 one more reason to be reluctant to top up ( apart from my DRP participation )


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (31 May 2022)

SUN took a 6% hit today, which for long term holders, which includes most Queensland SMSFs is good. The price has been galloping away as friends, neighbours and relations are getting new whitegoods, renovations and tradie work done on SUN's purse following the inclement weather. A suspension of disbelief would understate my observation of the share price recently. I wish to add, but at lower prices.

I personally am hoping for a further fall, it was way overpriced even with Re-insurance which itself is more costly. It is also a Queensland jewel and should a stock Armageddon come the Queensland Government are likely to come to the party to prop it up, unlike Victoria with Pyramid back in the 80's ( or was it the 90's? ).

Stockspecialist has summarised Morgans opinion on it and the p/e's and all that gumph that Morgans charge the lame and needy for. Their "target" is $10.50. 









						Suncorp Feeling the Burn
					

Insurance giant Suncorp Group Ltd is feeling the burn today ending the day over 6% to $11.35 a share...




					www.stockspecialist.com.au
				




A long term chart is in order. 






Morgans may be correct with support/resistance at $10 but picking them up at $8 would appear to be a better way to go with the present bull effort about to restart before a possible crash. 

Who knows?

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 July 2022)

Looks like ANZ might make a bid for Suncorp Bank. If so, details next week?

That would leave the Group as an insurance play, multichannel at that ?


----------



## divs4ever (16 July 2022)

SUN  needs to be under $9.90  ( on current information ) to tempt me to add 

 but SUN is talking about a 'restructure '  would  ANZ go for the whole package  or just the tastiest part 

 take care


----------



## divs4ever (16 July 2022)

27 June 2022

Response to Media Speculation

Suncorp Group refers to recent media commentary regarding Suncorp’s banking operations.
As previously advised, Suncorp, from time to time, reviews its strategic alternatives in relation to all of its businesses and is currently doing so in respect of its banking operations.

a little dated  but maybe ANZ sees an opportunity


----------



## Dona Ferentes (18 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Looks like ANZ might make a bid for Suncorp Bank. If so, details next week?



$4.9 billion for the bank.


Dona Ferentes said:


> That would leave the Group as an insurance play, multichannel at that ?



_From around the traps:_
The spate of local disasters has been so bad that one reinsurance figure was quoted in London-based industry newsletter _Insurance Insider_ as likening Australia to “the new Florida” – populated but disaster prone  – essentially arguing that the market here had previously been priced too cheaply.

The trimmed-down Suncorp confirming the cost of reinsurance had “_increased significantly”_ and will wear more pain.

Suncorp’s “_aggregate cover_”, which protects it from a chain of smaller wild-weather calamities, kicks in only after a bill of $850 million has been tallied. Last year’s trigger was $650 million.


----------



## divs4ever (18 July 2022)

Suncorp Group announces the sale of Suncorp Bank to create a
leading Trans-Tasman insurer
Suncorp Group Limited (ASX:SUN | ADR:SNMCY) (Suncorp or the Group) today announces it has signed a
share sale and purchase agreement with Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) to sell its
banking business (the Bank) (the Transaction).
Suncorp’s insurance operations in both Australia and New Zealand will not form part of the Transaction and the
Group’s head office will continue to be in Queensland.
The Bank will continue to operate under the Suncorp Bank brand pursuant to a licensing agreement between
ANZ and the Group for a period of 5 years post completion.
The Transaction continues the reshaping and simplification of the Suncorp Group, and positions both the
insurance and banking businesses for ongoing growth and success – benefiting employees, customers and
other stakeholders.
Transaction highlights
• Cash sale of Suncorp Bank to ANZ for $4.9 billion:
o Represents $1.3 billion of goodwill paid above net tangible assets1
o Represents 1.3x P/NTA1
.
• Additionally, a minimum fee of $50 million for the use of the Suncorp Bank brand, to be received over
time (representing $10 million per year under the Brand Licence Agreement between the Group and
ANZ).
• The Transaction is expected to yield net proceeds of $4.1 billion, representing $3.21 per share2. The
indicative proceeds are net of the impact of separation costs, transaction costs, other divestment related
costs and provisions, indicative capital gains tax, and other capital impacts. Consistent with the
approach taken in previous divestments, the current intention is to return the majority of proceeds to
shareholders.
• ANZ and Suncorp commit to maintain the strong current presence of Suncorp Bank in Queensland and
further invest in people and a range of initiatives in the state.
• Agreement with ANZ to license the Suncorp brand for the banking business for a period of 5 years post
completion, maintaining and enhancing the customer proposition of Suncorp Bank. The brand licence
period may extend for up to two years. If extended, Suncorp will receive an additional fee of $10 million
per year.
• A Transitional Services Agreement with ANZ for a period of 2 to 3 years post completion. Suncorp is
targeting the removal of stranded costs arising from the transaction within 3 years post completion.
• The Transaction is subject to a range of regulatory approvals from the Federal Treasurer and the
Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. Both parties will engage constructively with the
Queensland government in relation to the State Financial Institutions and Metway Merger Act 1996
(Qld).
1 Based on the last reported Net Tangible Assets (NTA) of the Bank of $3.6 billion, as at 31 December 2021. This NTA is subject to change
once the completion balance sheet is finalised.
2 Based on total number of ordinary shares on issues as at 30 June 2022 of 1,262,604,976.
2
Suncorp Group Limited | ABN 66 145 290 124 | Level 5, 80 Ann Street, Brisbane Qld 4000
suncorpgroup.com.au
• The targeted timeframe for completion is approximately 12 months, during which time Suncorp Group
will continue to run the Bank.
ANZ has indicated its intention to run the Bank as a separate business to minimise disruption and support the
Bank’s ongoing growth for at least the following three years. The Transaction creates an opportunity to
accelerate the plan for Suncorp Bank under ANZ’s ownership.
The Transaction also supports the ongoing transformation of Suncorp’s insurance businesses as it builds on its
leading market positions and scale in attractive and growing segments in Australia and New Zealand.
Suncorp Chairman Christine McLoughlin said: “This proposal has been assessed through the lens of creating
value for shareholders and, just as importantly, to ensure there is alignment of purpose and values and positive
outcomes for our people and customers.
“Suncorp Group, which is the proud home of several of Australia and New Zealand’s leading and most trusted
insurance brands including AAMI, GIO, Shannons, Apia and Vero, and of course the Suncorp brand, will
continue to offer the same great service to Queenslanders.
“Both businesses will benefit from a singular focus on their growth strategies and investment requirements.
“We believe the agreed price fairly values the Bank and reflects the hard work of our people and progress made
on delivering our strategic objectives.
“Our purpose of building futures and protecting what matters – the focus of our company for over 100 years – will
remain at our core and enable our people to deliver on our vision to create the leading Trans-Tasman insurance
company.”
Suncorp Group CEO Steve Johnston said: “As a dedicated insurance business we will be singularly focused on
meeting the needs of our customers and communities at a time when the value of insurance has never been
greater.
“We acknowledge the needs of insurance customers are rapidly changing, with a preference for digital
interactions and for product design to take into account personal circumstances and risk profiles. At the same
time, the external environment has seen more frequent and severe natural hazard events resulting in increased
costs and affordability challenges.
“Suncorp will continue to be at the forefront of advocating for a more resilient Australia and for all levels of
Government to focus on mitigating the impacts of major weather events through improved public infrastructure,
subsidies to improve private dwellings and an overhaul of planning laws.”
Mr Johnston said the decision to divest the Bank had not been taken lightly and had been informed by extensive
analysis and consideration.
“By combining with a larger banking group, Suncorp Bank will be well positioned for the future. Customers will
see benefits including access to a wider range of products and services, and career opportunities will be
enhanced for our people. ANZ is committed to growing its presence in Queensland and I am pleased about the
commitments they are making to our customers and employees.
“Suncorp Group remains fully committed to supporting the Bank until completion of the sale.”
Commitment to Queensland
As part of the Transaction, both Suncorp and ANZ are making a number of commitments to the state of
Queensland including:
ANZ’s commitment
• Maintaining Suncorp Bank’s strong Queensland presence, with ANZ committing to no net job losses or
branch closures as a result of the transaction for three years following completion of the transaction.
• Benefits for Suncorp Bank’s Queensland customers, including product and technology initiatives, and
additional development, career progression and training opportunities for Suncorp Bank employees.
3
Suncorp Group Limited | ABN 66 145 290 124 | Level 5, 80 Ann Street, Brisbane Qld 4000
suncorpgroup.com.au
• Allocating $15 billion of new lending as part of ANZ’s existing renewable lending commitments to
support Queensland renewable projects and green Olympic Games infrastructure over the next decade.
• $10 billion of new lending for energy projects particularly those targeting bioenergy and hydrogen over
the next decade.
• $10 billion of lending made available to support Queensland businesses over the next three years.
Suncorp Group’s commitments
• Broader Suncorp commitment to the region, including the establishment of a Disaster Response Centre
of Excellence, incorporating the latest technology to monitor, prepare for and respond to extreme
weather and natural disasters. It will include the employment hub for our flexible event workforce.
• Continuing to be maintain its head office in Queensland, operating out of the new purpose-built facility at
Heritage Lanes in Brisbane.
Suncorp reconfirms its commitment to its previously announced FY23 targets across all its businesses.
FY22 results will be released to the market on 8 August 2022.
Suncorp CEO & Managing Director, Steve Johnston and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Robson, will be
hosting an investor call at 9am (AEST).

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DYOR

i hold SUN

another incredible shrinking bank .. i wonder how long before branches start closing


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