# Buying gold



## Alan Shearer

guys, i just found this site & a great one it is.

im interested in buying gold. not now but if we have some deflation and it drops a little lower. i have some questions though if u dont mind:

1. how do we fare in OZ considering i feel in 2009 the US$ will drop severely pushing our dollar higher. does gold become a bad investment for us in this case? 

2. would gold stocks such as NCM or LGL do just as well as buying physical gold? having shares would provide more liquidity vs gold bullion or coins.

3. does anyone feel that if we have continued deflation we might see gold at half the price it is now?

4. has anyone purchased from the perth mint? are there prices fluctuation for the gold coins as the POG fluctuates? has anyone noticed?

thanks!

AS


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## sinner

Alan Shearer said:


> guys, i just found this site & a great one it is.
> 
> im interested in buying gold. not now but if we have some deflation and it drops a little lower. i have some questions though if u dont mind:
> 
> 1. how do we fare in OZ considering i feel in 2009 the US$ will drop severely pushing our dollar higher. does gold become a bad investment for us in this case?
> 
> 2. would gold stocks such as NCM or LGL do just as well as buying physical gold? having shares would provide more liquidity vs gold bullion or coins.
> 
> 3. does anyone feel that if we have continued deflation we might see gold at half the price it is now?
> 
> 4. has anyone purchased from the perth mint? are there prices fluctuation for the gold coins as the POG fluctuates? has anyone noticed?
> 
> thanks!
> 
> AS




There is no shortage of goldbugs screaming hyperinflation, manipulation, etc etc. But even the respectable deflationists are liking gold. Take a look at the Mike Shedlock article "I Like Gold Here" and his most recent article on Gold vs Dr Feteke.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/i-like-gold-here.html

Mish is far from a gold bug hyperinflationist conspiracy type, his word is as good as a bar of gold imho.

In terms of AUD pushing up against USD, this is possibility I guess, just make sure if you are invested in a miner they have a relatively low cost of production. As an example, I notice IGR are aiming at $700+/oz compared to say, $400+ for Hill End Gold.

Realistically you can look at the ASX:GOLD chart to see that if **** hits the fan and the USD/US-T-bill bubble pops then gold will be reaching new all time highs regardless of currency conversion (as the inital "all time high" spike preceded our currency drop).

As for NCM/LGL/whatever, it's a tossup on your part between perceived issues with debt/production/institutional involvement (I hear LGL is often the plaything of big instos when they want to earn some day-trading cash) versus market sentiment which will often flood into NCM and LGL irrespective of their real life position i.e. if you are running to gold, why run into the arms of a indebted company like NCM or one that will be using credit to finance expansion like LGL?

Essentially you will need to decide whether you want to trade fundamental issues like debt, production, sovereign risk, etc (as goldbugs generally do) or on sentiment (as everyone else seems to).

re purchasing from PMG, GOOD LUCK MATE! : from my understanding there is a several month order backlog with ZAUWBA redemptions for physical being caught in the contract clause "cash in hand or physical at our pleasure" (sic).

Good luck.


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## hotbmw

sinner said:


> As for NCM/LGL/whatever, it's a tossup on your part between perceived issues with debt/production/institutional involvement (I hear LGL is often the plaything of big instos when they want to earn some day-trading cash) versus market sentiment which will often flood into NCM and LGL irrespective of their real life position i.e. if you are running to gold, why run into the arms of a indebted company like NCM or one that will be using credit to finance expansion like LGL?
> 
> Essentially you will need to decide whether you want to trade fundamental issues like debt, production, sovereign risk, etc (as goldbugs generally do) or on sentiment (as everyone else seems to).
> 
> re purchasing from PMG, GOOD LUCK MATE! : from my understanding there is a several month order backlog with ZAUWBA redemptions for physical being caught in the contract clause "cash in hand or physical at our pleasure" (sic).
> 
> Good luck.




so what do you feel is the best way to trade gold? good points about fundamental issues in shares but you also said physical gold sales is backlogged several months.

how would u buy gold then?


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## sinner

Who knows?

If we are talking financial apocalypse scenario then holding GOLD or ZAUWBA will be useless as the government will probably confiscate or force default on it.

There are similar (but 3rd party) services like www.goldmoney.org which seems to have Mike Shedlocks personal endorsement, but he is obviously not forseeing any such apocalypse scenario so not too worried about the company defaulting and taking your bullion. If you share this view, (i.e. after gold as the next profit maker rather than something more fundamental) then it's obviously fine and you could hold 100 unit lots of ZAUWBA safely as they are government backed and still provide some guarantee of redemption.

For the apocalypse scenario, the only answer is physical gold, where the only answer to your question is GET IT WHERE YOU CAN. I don't mean to be hysterical, but the fact remains for small holding buyers the premium is at a minimum of 10-15% over spot not to mention delays if you can get it at all. No government can confiscate your physical, or force the company holding it to default, or attach any other such liability to it. If you are worried about this scenario then one can only assume 10-15% premium is the least of your concerns. Large buyers seem to be having no problems, the shortages in physical being restricted to small coins/bars rather than the 500/1000g bars which seem easily available.

Regardless, the best approach will probably be to diversify. It is relatively inexpensive to move a small portion of your total capital into physical (say 10-20%) even at these high premiums which should insulate you fully if the apocalypse comes (as the POG would most likely skyrocket past everything else which would be dropping). I mean, if you have $10,000 and spend $2000 on physical, if things get really bad that $2000 will = $10,000 while the rest of your holdings plummet to $0.

This is a worst case scenario that I think it would be wise to recognise, none of us really want. If it comes down to this, your gold holdings won't protect against rioting and looting! In which case, gold and a shotgun might be a better trading pair 

Personally, I have been accumulating bag silver and gold sovereigns and 1 oz bars as close to spot as I can (there is usually a small premium baked into sovereigns). By bag silver I mean:  Pre 1946, all pre-decimal Aussie coins were 0.925 grade silver. Same applies for pre 1920 UK pre-decimal coins. These can be picked up at spot or less if you are lucky. Ignore those being sold by coin collectors for their collection value!

To give you an idea $250 used to be the standard asking price for a gold sov at any coin shop. You will notice that 5 * 250 = 1250 (approx 5 sovs for 1 troz gold) which just so happens to be the current spot of gold, so if you were buying apocalypse sovs last year you only just broke even now thanks to USD pumelling AUD lower, and it's worse now, the cheapest I managed to get is $265, not really willing to go above $280 and thats high!

Small holders willing to pay the premium can go to ebay there are some decent dealers (if you ignore the premium). If you are unwilling to pay the premium then you probably don't recognise gold in that fundamental way and may as well hold ZAUWBA to redeem when you can.

I made my play in mid November and haven't made any purchases since then, long EWH and FXI on international markets (13% total) long ASX RMS and RMSOC (15%) and again a similar percentile of total holdings in physical gold (I do not include bag silver in my holdings, only a speculative apocalypse play) and the rest in cash.

Hope to diversify cash into a few diff currencies soon and may enter long position on one of NEM, NCM, LGL or AGG (purely sentiment play) on the next downleg.

Deflationist contrarian strategy:
Buy USD and JPY on market weakness (i.e. high AUD)
Sell forex profits to accumulate gold on market strength (i.e. lower gold)

Inflationist contrarian strategy:
Sell everything but land you own 100%, buy gold, silver, a gun, 50 cans of spam and pray for the best.


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## projack

About 4 years ago I had a disagreement with my friend on gold vs. stock. He stayed with stock I went to PM. 
My investment more than doubled he lost half of it.
Time to time we exchange emails on the subject here are the last few. 


Sent: Tuesday, 22 January 2008 9:39 PM
Hi Bob
I think I was right.
Since I last seen you stocks lost 20%, Gold gained about the same. This is 50%
different on a stock portfolio person who is converted into gold 3-4 month ago.
100 less 20% =80   vs.   100 plus 20%= 120
80 vs.120
Thanks haven I did not sell gold to buy stocks.

Hope you are well. Peter


Date: Friday, January 25, 2008, 9:38 AM

The game's not over until the fat lady sings.

Regards Robert


Sent: Wednesday, 8 October 2008 5:56 AM

Hi Bob
Looks like the fat lady started to sing.
Regards Peter


Sent: Wednesday, 8 October 2008 5:56 AM
Hi Peter,

Not only that but the s*** has hit the fan and everyone is getting splattered.

It's a crazy time, for example a couple of months ago $A1.00 would buy $US0.98, now the rate is $US0.72.  That's just bloody stupid but it's supposedly a reflection of the fall in commodity prices combined with a scramble for $US because the banks are hoarding cash.

Basically the Aussie economy is in reasonable shape so I believe the stock market has been oversold.  The only real threat to our economy is a rapid downturn in house prices rather than the gradual decline that's been the trend recently.

Regards Bob


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## Ageo

As i have said before if you want pure gold (stamped 24ct but not hallmarked from the mint) then i can grab as much as you like for only 10% above the spot. I have bought many ounces in the last couple of months for myself and others.

I think perth and that were asking around over 30% for immediate delivery? otherwise your on the waiting list.

If you want to ensure its purity any jeweller (proper jeweller not shop front) can tell you something thats 24ct.


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## hotbmw

where r u getting it from Ageo?


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## Ageo

hotbmw said:


> where r u getting it from Ageo?




I have a refiner who deals only with jewellers which i get some from, plus
I purchase alot of scrap gold and have it refined so i can afford to do it at better prices than the current ones on offer. 30% above the spot is around 1700+ p/o which is very high indeed.


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## sinner

Hi Ageo,

I really appreciate the generous offer you have provided members here and have written in my notebook. 

Luckily like I said I made my play in mid Nov and happy with my current levels of everything. But I will probably send you a message after my currency diversification project is complete!

projack, it is worth considering that gold miners are not just being hurt by the financial deleveraging currently taking place but also they are at a cyclical low! I think your friend will do fine for himself if he can hold out just a bit longer.

This article is a bit dated now (last week) but I base my "advice" (PLEASE DO NOT TAKE ANYTHING I SAY AS FINANCIAL ADVICE) on some of its info

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/chan121308.html

I will only post one chart and one tidbit and leave the rest as an exercise to those interested.




As you can see GDX raised a buy signal, actually a bit before GLD and SLV raised theres. There is also the rather interesting tidbit that bearish divergences (i.e. bear buy signals rather than bull buy signals) are occuring on the indicators for GLD and SLV while the GDX has just exited its bearish position.

Good luck.

EDIT: Kicking myself that I sold IGR at a very small loss, considering their performance as of late. I wouldn't have held onto them anyway but would have preferred to sell them today than at 0.130 when I bought at 0.135! Ah well.


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## disarray

the australian bullion company has plenty of physical gold on hand, although there is a 3 month wait on delivery of physical silver. they are in pitt st. sydney. it is annoying having to run to several different bank branches to get your money out because they won't let you take out more than $5000 - $10000 a day - definately a red flag to the paranoid.

price list here


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## electronicmaster

disarray said:


> the australian bullion company has plenty of physical gold on hand, although there is a 3 month wait on delivery of physical silver. they are in pitt st. sydney. it is annoying having to run to several different bank branches to get your money out because they won't let you take out more than $5000 - $10000 a day - definately a red flag to the paranoid.
> 
> price list here




Wow, they sell really big bars of Silver.  30Kg bars???.  wow


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## arco

Interesting................

http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1206572052.php


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## Glen48

You are better with small lots than a 10KG bar ,you need to pay the security guards to walk you to and from the shed to Hacksaw of a piece, to buy a few cans of Spam and 12G rounds.
Some Pawn Brokers deal in Spot Gold. About $18 a Gram.


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## electronicmaster

arco said:


> Interesting................
> 
> http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1206572052.php




Oh Jason Hommel?


Forget about that guy.  He is not a reliable source.

That news article makes him look like he is causing trouble or has a chip on his shoulder.


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## electronicmaster

Glen48 said:


> You are better with small lots than a 10KG bar ,you need to pay the security guards to walk you to and from the shed to Hacksaw of a piece, to buy a few cans of Spam and 12G rounds.
> Some Pawn Brokers deal in Spot Gold. About $18 a Gram.




Yes I agree. I have 20 ounce, 100 ounce and 1kg bars.  I'm soon to buy gold and silver mine shares.


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## slim pickins

you can buy pretty much an unlimited anount of gold bullion over the countrer in switzerland or austria at any bank that sells it. thats the safest bet.

just bring a bag a cash with you and walk out with gold.

the problem is the price. its like buying currency... eveyone has a diffrent price and by the time you find spot price the spot price has changed.

if you are buying physical gold at 20% above spot price you are a sucker. and its not an investmet. when you come to sell it who will you sell it to 20% above the spot price to recoup your expenses and makea profit. a jewler or mint will buy it off you only at spot price. a jewler below that. you will need to open a jewlery story to sell your gold.

so if you make a profit, you will erode those profits by 20%. thats a bad investment in my books.

if someone is selling you gold, at or below the spot price. ask why? and find out the golds purity. anythign below 99.99% is not pure gold and could explain why it is below the spot price. i dont see people sellign shares below the market price... why sell gold.

and how would you know what purity the gold is anyway. thats another thing to consider.

never buy "gold dust" or any gold from anywhere in africa. especially nigeria!!!

i would buy gold in one of only 2 ways.

1) walk up to a bank in switzerald with a $700,000 AUD in cash or more, and say.. whats the best price you can get me for this much gold. compoare that to the current spot price. walk away if its over 2% of spot.

2) buy gold or gold futures on the chicago mercantile exchange.


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## Ageo

slim pickins said:


> if you are buying physical gold at 20% above spot price you are a sucker.




For the average investor how else can you buy pure stamped gold? have you even bought gold? how do refiners make money? its called the spread and 30%+ is very common in todays market so obviously you have no idea when buying in australia.





slim pickins said:


> if someone is selling you gold, at or below the spot price. ask why? and find out the golds purity. anythign below 99.99% is not pure gold and could explain why it is below the spot price. i dont see people sellign shares below the market price... why sell gold.




99.99%? and how do you tell its that purity? if you understand refining/purities etc.. you will almost find that hardly anyone even the best of refiners can produce 9999 purity. Usually 9996 is the best they can achieve. 




slim pickins said:


> 1) walk up to a bank in switzerald with a $700,000 AUD in cash or more, and say.. whats the best price you can get me for this much gold. compoare that to the current spot price. walk away if its over 2% of spot.
> 
> 2) buy gold or gold futures on the chicago mercantile exchange.




If thats the 2 best ideas on how to purchase gold perhaps shoveling dirt for a living would serve you better???? i can buy gold here much cheaper then i can anywhere else in the world.

Remember when people buy physical gold its usually for long term (5-10+yrs) so 20%+ on the spread wont hurt them much if the time frame is for that long.

2nd: Futures is only good for short term as your leveraged (unless you go the ETF route).

Nothing wrong with hedging yourself for the next 20yrs and paying a little premium to make sure you get the right goods.


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## slim pickins

Ageo said:


> For the average investor how else can you buy pure stamped gold? have you even bought gold? how do refiners make money? its called the spread and 30%+ is very common in todays market so obviously you have no idea when buying in australia.
> 
> 99.99%? and how do you tell its that purity? if you understand refining/purities etc.. you will almost find that hardly anyone even the best of refiners can produce 9999 purity. Usually 9996 is the best they can achieve.
> 
> If thats the 2 best ideas on how to purchase gold perhaps shoveling dirt for a living would serve you better???? i can buy gold here much cheaper then i can anywhere else in the world.
> 
> Remember when people buy physical gold its usually for long term (5-10+yrs) so 20%+ on the spread wont hurt them much if the time frame is for that long.
> 
> 2nd: Futures is only good for short term as your leveraged (unless you go the ETF route).
> 
> Nothing wrong with hedging yourself for the next 20yrs and paying a little premium to make sure you get the right goods.




well no, i have never actually bougth gold in my life. i actually fould some gold once worth about $200.  the closest i came was in 1999 when it was about 200USD and ounce. but i didnt.

now you say how can an average investor actaully buy pure stamped gold?
my answer is, that anyone buying pure stamped gold is not an investor. they are buying a luxury item for their own amusement similar to diamonds. 

you are not an investor because you are buying gold 20% - 30% above the spot price and you can only ever sell it at spot price. please enlighten me.... what mint or jewler will buy your "investment" at 20% above spot price.... they will say... you wanna sell your gold... well the spot price is this... and you will say.... oh... btu cant you buy it at 20% above the market rate.... and they'll think you are crazy 

so lets say you double your money 15 eyars after buying gold. then you pay capital gains tax and then you lose 30% because you bought 30% above spot plus cost of storage over 15 years.... surely you will not keep it under your matress. so there goes 60% of your profit in "transaction costs".

so if you want to be an investor you have to play with the big boys and egt in there with some real money and negotiate the price. otherwise. what is the purpose of a spot price if you will never get it. might as well go to a jeweler and buy a really big gold armband. ignore the spot price and buy willy nilly, who knwos it might even increase in value because of its uniqueness. 

if you are interested in the spot price. go for one of my methods. in the mercantile excahnge buy a gold contract and wait for phyiscial delivery. cost you about 80k AUD and you get 3 one kilo gold bars delivered to you. certified by a reputable mint.

wait until gold increases in value then be prepared to sell it to someone for a 10% under spot price. becasue after all everyone buyign gold will tell you... oh, we already have our own suppliers, oh we are flooded with gold sorry cant give you more. .... oh, we only buy from certified mints. before long you will be sending nigerian type junk emails saying...... 

"hi my name is paul, i am from australia...... i am lookign to sell some gold. i use the "swiss-prosess",  did you knwo australia produces many tonnes of gold per year. if you contact me... we can meet at my office to oficially test the gold. then you can wire funds to me and i will give you physical delivery of gold" 

and someone willl read your email giggle and think you are nuts. 

so having failed to sell your gold at spot price you will grow more despearate. and consider openign your own jewelry shop or even your own mercantile exchange jsut to sell your gold. whilst the whole time schlepping your bags of gold around. eventually you might entertain the idea of wearing your ornomantal investment. you will turn up to dinner parties with 3 kilos of gold hanging from you hands and neck. people wil complement you on your gold in your presence but secretly they will worry about you and eventually the dinner party invitaitons will dry up. you will be alone in your house laughing madly surrounded by your gold. and will realise you ahev become a prisoner of your investment. 

you will see it has dragged you under, you will run out and sell it for any price... any price at all just to be rid of that devil.

invest in phyiscal gold at your own risk.


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## cuttlefish

Ageo said:


> 99.99%? and how do you tell its that purity? if you understand refining/purities etc.. you will almost find that hardly anyone even the best of refiners can produce 9999 purity. Usually 9996 is the best they can achieve.




Ageo - 99.99% seems to be the standard purity for mint produced bars - are you saying bars stamped 99.99% by the mint aren't actually 99.99 pure?

(I've got Perth Mint bars that I bought from AGR Matthey earlier this year - they are stamped 9999.   The price at that time was a relatively small percentage above spot - I'm pretty sure 1oz  bars were only about $20 or $30 over spot which was near the AUD $900 mark at the time I purchased from memory).

I'm assuming gold bars bought from the Australian Bullion Company would be the same purity and with a similar relatively small premium over spot.   (anyone bought any bars from ABC recently?).


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## grace

slim pickins said:


> well no, i have never actually bougth gold in my life. i actually fould some gold once worth about $200.  the closest i came was in 1999 when it was about 200USD and ounce. but i didnt.
> 
> so having failed to sell your gold at spot price you will grow more despearate. and consider openign your own jewelry shop or even your own mercantile exchange jsut to sell your gold. whilst the whole time schlepping your bags of gold around. eventually you might entertain the idea of wearing your ornomantal investment. you will turn up to dinner parties with 3 kilos of gold hanging from you hands and neck. people wil complement you on your gold in your presence but secretly they will worry about you and eventually the dinner party invitaitons will dry up. you will be alone in your house laughing madly surrounded by your gold. and will realise you ahev become a prisoner of your investment.
> 
> you will see it has dragged you under, you will run out and sell it for any price... any price at all just to be rid of that devil.
> 
> invest in phyiscal gold at your own risk.




You made me laugh and laugh and laugh!
There are a few threads around the place on this subject.  One could do a search and find quite a bit of information.


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## disarray

cuttlefish said:


> I'm assuming gold bars bought from the Australian Bullion Company would be the same purity and with a similar relatively small premium over spot.   (anyone bought any bars from ABC recently?).




yes, they are stamped 9999 and price is about $10 - $20 over spot / oz to buy, and they buyback about $25 under spot. better than my old brokers commission.

and that was a good story slim, although i won't be wearing my gold bars around, they are already gainfully employed as paperweights, meditation balls and construction pieces in the little golden buildings i make on my desk. they are also a nice match for the the guns and tinned food i keep as a hedge against the zombie apocalypse


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## kransky

disarray said:


> yes, they are stamped 9999 and price is about $10 - $20 over spot / oz to buy, and they buyback about $25 under spot. better than my old brokers commission.
> 
> and that was a good story slim, although i won't be wearing my gold bars around, they are already gainfully employed as paperweights, meditation balls and construction pieces in the little golden buildings i make on my desk. they are also a nice match for the the guns and tinned food i keep as a hedge against the zombie apocalypse




28 weeks later...  

you can buy direct from abc and actually get delivery or is it a looong wait for delivery?

got some gold but not started stocking up tinned food yet... that may be needed when energy prices rocket when oil starts to run out


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## slim pickins

thank you all for your kind remarks. often truth can sound stranger then fiction.  just wait until i post about a failed "diamond investment" scheme.

guns gold and tinned food are an excellent investment.

i see one of you right now walking around an apocalyptic lanscape, wind blowing, a diseased hungry population crawling looking for food.

and there's YOU..... roaming the wastelnd, stepping over the hungry masses, with your well fed, tinned-food induced belly. your gun tucked under you belt buckle, and covered in gold.... gold that you youself have turned into various pieces of jewelry while hunkered down in the bomb shelter for the first 4 months of the apocalypse. 

there you are, a bright yellow shining tribute to gold investment. 

has anyone here actually made a good 10% return from gold over the period of 7 years or so. i mean if they have... plese tell me about it.

the only time i was going to buy gold as i said was in 1999, and if i had done that i would have doubled my money some years later. btu then i saw that i woudl have doubled my moeny if i bought property (or many other investments) and i would have recieved some rental income as well. so i diditn feel like i really missed out by not actually owning physical gold.

please share your gold investment stories.


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## disarray

you can buy direct from the ABC shopfront in sydney and walk out with the gold, but there is a 3 month wait for silver.

i made some money a while ago on gold bars, i bought a few ounces around $800 and sold them at around $950 when the charts started tanking. i was just testing the waters with physical at the time, but now i prefer to hold some physical for the long term and trade ASX gold shares for the shorter term.

imo investments like gold / diamonds etc. aren't just a financial position, they are also a hedge against social instability. our society is fat, stupid, complacent and welfare dependent at the moment and as an avid student of history i am keenly aware of just how quickly it can all come crashing down. even a small position in physical gold is a lifetime insurance policy against war, epidemics, civil unrest, corrupt government or whatever. but then i'm pretty pessimistic and maintain a bearish stance on humanity, so consult your own voices in your head before proceeding


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## kransky

disarray said:


> hold some physical for the long term and trade ASX gold shares for the shorter term.
> 
> imo investments like gold / diamonds etc. aren't just a financial position, they are also a hedge against social instability. our society is fat, stupid, complacent and welfare dependent at the moment and as an avid student of history i am keenly aware of just how quickly it can all come crashing down. even a small position in physical gold is a lifetime insurance policy against war, epidemics, civil unrest, corrupt government or whatever. but then i'm pretty pessimistic and maintain a bearish stance on humanity, so consult your own voices in your head before proceeding




I agree completely and share your concerns about society and holding some physical gold simply as an insurance..


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## slim pickins

disarray,

i see you are a big picture man.  i like that. plagues civil wars and insurrections. they are bound to happen from time to time. welfare dependency is a plague with its onw particularly nasty dimention and its spreading wiht the current governemnt.

gold is good in situatons like that. very good if you plan to take it with you to start a new life in america or somehting. and whilst it holds its value very well. may i also suggest diamonds. the favourite of depots, terrorists, dictators and war criminals.

with diamonds you will lose about a 30% of their value when you come to sell them, but if fleeing from war or the plague it is easier to smuggle them out. then 50kg bags of gold.

diamonds are tiny and they dont come up in those metal detector machines at the aiport. you can swallow milions of dollars worth. so the loss you result with is a lot better considering you will  boost your chances of getting out alive. 

its very hard to explain 80kg of gold in your louis vouitton luggage at the final communist insurgency checkpoint without sounding like a bougsie (cant spell it) capitalist pig. GO DIAMONDS!


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## kransky

and where/how to buy a diamond without being ripped off?


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## disarray

my oldies recently bought some diamonds from the kimberley in their grey nomad trek around australia. the got some champagne diamond from a dealer with certificates of authenticity etc. heading straight to the source is always a good way to start


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## Ageo

slim pickins said:


> well no, i have never actually bougth gold in my life.




This pretty much sums it up  Until you are in the physical market and have made money from it please dont speculate as this is a "buying gold thread" not "lets hear from some inexperienced gold buyers". 

Remember buying paper always has the added risk (what if it crashes?) some might disagree and say comex and other gold platforms for paper can never crash but id rather be on the safe side.



cuttlefish said:


> Ageo - 99.99% seems to be the standard purity for mint produced bars - are you saying bars stamped 99.99% by the mint aren't actually 99.99 pure?
> 
> (I've got Perth Mint bars that I bought from AGR Matthey earlier this year - they are stamped 9999.   The price at that time was a relatively small percentage above spot - I'm pretty sure 1oz  bars were only about $20 or $30 over spot which was near the AUD $900 mark at the time I purchased from memory).
> 
> I'm assuming gold bars bought from the Australian Bullion Company would be the same purity and with a similar relatively small premium over spot.   (anyone bought any bars from ABC recently?).




CF what sounds better 9999 or 9996?  9999 means there is only gold and 0 impurities of any other metal left in the bar/ingot when refined. Speak to refining experts and see how hard it is to remove that 0001 of an impurity (basically impossible). But how will you know? a certificate and a nice shiny gold bar gets everyone excited so it doesnt mean anything. For example Slim mentioned only buy gold if its 9999 (even thow he hasnt bought gold in his life). Little does he realise you really cant it that pure.

Anywayz enough blabbing on, i have a customer who just orderded 10kgs of gold


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## cuttlefish

Ageo said:


> CF what sounds better 9999 or 9996?  9999 means there is only gold and 0 impurities of any other metal left in the bar/ingot when refined. Speak to refining experts and see how hard it is to remove that 0001 of an impurity (basically impossible). But how will you know? a certificate and a nice shiny gold bar gets everyone excited so it doesnt mean anything. For example Slim mentioned only buy gold if its 9999 (even thow he hasnt bought gold in his life). Little does he realise you really cant it that pure.




Cheers Ageo



> Anywayz enough blabbing on, i have a customer who just orderded 10kgs of gold




Do you distribute for a refiner Ageo or source your gold from somewhere else?


----------



## slim pickins

Ageo said:


> This pretty much sums it up  Until you are in the physical market and have made money from it please dont speculate as this is a "buying gold thread" not "lets hear from some inexperienced gold buyers".
> 
> CF what sounds better 9999 or 9996?  9999 means there is only gold and 0 impurities of any other metal left in the bar/ingot when refined. Speak to refining experts and see how hard it is to remove that 0001 of an impurity (basically impossible). But how will you know? a certificate and a nice shiny gold bar gets everyone excited so it doesnt mean anything. For example Slim mentioned only buy gold if its 9999 (even thow he hasnt bought gold in his life). Little does he realise you really cant it that pure.
> 
> Anywayz enough blabbing on, i have a customer who just orderded 10kgs of gold




im just telling you why i did not invest in gold so far. no biggie. i might buy gold one day. 

i dotn think i meant to start a discussion about gold purity to that degree. it was a typo. i meant to say 99.9% not 99.99..... 

when i say pure i mean pure 99.9 whatever.... as compared to 97% or 98% a reputable mint will not risk its reputation by stealing 1% of gold. so basically buy from a reputable source.

and of course you want us all to buy phisical gold ageo..... you sell the stuff!!!

now tell me.... do you buy the stuff? if i came to you today with kilo gold bar how much would you buy it off me for? what if i came to you with 10, one ounce gold disks purchased in switzerland stamped 99.99% how much could i get form you for each ounce disk.


----------



## slim pickins

kransky said:


> and where/how to buy a diamond without being ripped off?




i dont knwo if i am allowed to talk abotu diamonds in this thread but ill just say buying diamonds at a good price is very very tricky.

everyone other then a diamond trader will tell you that. 

diamonds are used as a form of wealth storage and wealth transfer by fleeing ex generals and dictators. they are a luxury item and a pretty rock but they are not an investment. 

in fact, in a practical sense apart from being pretty, cut diamonds are totatly worthless. (storng statement i know but read about them before you attack me) they havent been a commodity for as long as gold and they are nto freely floated on any public exchange like gold is.

no matetr how much you buy a diamond for, whether it a shop, or a trader, or a back alley, you willl not be able to sell it without losing about 30% - 40% of the amount you paid for it. 

has anyone here ever tried to sell a diamond to anyone that they bought in a western country? hwo much did you get for it?

you want a cheap diamond, go to africa or a warzone to get the best deal. and dotn get killed for your bag of cash.

my opinion... the chepest diamonds in the world right now are the gaza strip. if you have anastetic or an anti tank missile, you will get more diamonds for your buck then anywhere else on the planet.


----------



## cuttlefish

Doesn't De Beers pretty much control the price of diamonds?  (and as I understand it there really are quite a lot of diamonds to be found in the world).  

Another differentiator between diamonds and gold is that diamonds are basically a carbon molecule and can be manufactured.  Nobody is manufacturing gem sized ones but at the right price I'm sure they'd figure out a way to economically manufacture larger ones.


----------



## slim pickins

cuttlefish, 

yeah excatly what i have read. 

and yes, diamond is a molecular compound and gold is an element (ie has its own atom). id say they will manufacture a molecule much sooenr then they will be abel to manufacture an elemnet if ever.


----------



## Page

Buying gold at this position is good decision. can go for it and purchase gold for future. Purchasing gold at this position would be like taking an insurance plan for your family.


----------



## Ageo

cuttlefish said:


> Do you distribute for a refiner Ageo or source your gold from somewhere else?




As mentioned earlier i buy scrap (2nd hand) and have it refined with a refiner that doesnt deal with the public. I also source it from other refiners if i cant get the amount im after.



slim pickins said:


> and of course you want us all to buy phisical gold ageo..... you sell the stuff!!!
> 
> now tell me.... do you buy the stuff? if i came to you today with kilo gold bar how much would you buy it off me for? what if i came to you with 10, one ounce gold disks purchased in switzerland stamped 99.99% how much could i get form you for each ounce disk.




hehe it doesnt bother me wether you buy gold or not (especially from me!) im just giving you a perspective from a person thats in the industry.

As for buying pure gold im not that competitive so selling it to me would be a waste of time. I mainly deal in buying 2ndhand gold (jewellery, scrap etc..).

A couple of questions thow when selling your gold

* Do you want payment on the spot? or are you happy with payment in a week or 2? (The reason i ask is most refiners have to assay the stock before buying it and you will have to factor in the fall of the gold price, refining fee's, retension fee etc... assaying will take at least a week so gold could move against you if you happy with the days spot).

* Are you lazy and you want someone to come to you? or your happy to travel?

* Finally how much would you expect for your 1oz disks? remember its only worth what your prepared to sell it for .

Finally as for diamonds they are luxury yes but very illiquid hence you cant melt it or form it to any shape/size you want over and over.

Gold is a true currency and has been and will be used for many yrs to come.


----------



## chatty

I have 5 oz gold bar. whice is the place that I can sell it at best price?

I am also interested in buying more gold and silver. i am wondering which way is better? coins or bar?

Also, if it happens that gold can go up to $5000/oz. If i decide t sell my gold back to perthmint, do i have to pay capital gain tax?


----------



## slim pickins

chatty said:


> I have 5 oz gold bar. whice is the place that I can sell it at best price?
> 
> I am also interested in buying more gold and silver. i am wondering which way is better? coins or bar?
> 
> Also, if it happens that gold can go up to $5000/oz. If i decide t sell my gold back to perthmint, do i have to pay capital gain tax?




your tax will be your profit from the transaction. yes you have to pay capital gains tax on that profit so the government can give money to those thta dont like working and its union mates.


----------



## slim pickins

Ageo said:


> As for buying pure gold im not that competitive so selling it to me would be a waste of time.
> 
> * Do you want payment on the spot? or are you happy with payment in a week or 2? (The reason i ask is most refiners have to assay the stock before buying it and you will have to factor in the fall of the gold price, refining fee's, retension fee etc... assaying will take at least a week so gold could move against you if you happy with the days spot).
> 
> * Finally how much would you expect for your 1oz disks? remember its only worth what your prepared to sell it for .
> 
> Gold is a true currency and has been and will be used for many yrs to come.




hehehe yes i knwo you would not buy it. you cant buy gold at spot price and stay in business. so thats alarm bells to anyone buying gold at spot price. you can not, i repeat you cannot buy gold at spot price and stay in business!

yes refiners will buy your gold eventually, but not at spot price. they will give you less then spot and then take away fees and charges and this and that. so th game is stacked against you.

thats why i say unless you are ready to flee the country with your wealth in a suitcase, buy gold contracts and pray to god you dont have to take physical delivery of the stuff.

but in a way ageo is right gold is the only true currency. the fractional banking system is a charade that only relies on our faith. the moment that faith is gone so are the zeros in our accounts.

but despite everything gold stays. and whoever has it retains wealth and power. 

btu it is tough to make money with gold in a functioning system like ours.


----------



## Ageo

chatty said:


> I have 5 oz gold bar. whice is the place that I can sell it at best price?
> 
> I am also interested in buying more gold and silver. i am wondering which way is better? coins or bar?
> 
> Also, if it happens that gold can go up to $5000/oz. If i decide t sell my gold back to perthmint, do i have to pay capital gain tax?





Read previous threads there is loads of information on there that will help you.




slim pickins said:


> btu it is tough to make money with gold in a functioning system like ours.




Depends on how you trade gold thow, there are many ways to make money from gold (bullion, coins, jewellery, 2ndhand jewellery, scrap etc..)

I try and find whats booming and the most profitable then move into that area. Each category has its ups and downs but i can tell you i have bought heaps of 24ct gold jewellery for well less the spot price just because people need money on the spot and cant wait for it to be assayed. This is what the financial guru's call buying "distressed assets".


----------



## slim pickins

Ageo said:


> Each category has its ups and downs but i can tell you i have bought heaps of 24ct gold jewellery for well less the spot price just because people need money on the spot and cant wait for it to be assayed. This is what the financial guru's call buying "distressed assets".




you my friend are a merchat of misery.


----------



## kransky

happened at a local gold dealer the other day... old bloke walks in with a think old gold chain..

old bloke> i want to sell this gold chain, it.......
sales assistant> what is the minimum you would accept for this?
old bloke> well it was bought by....
me> wtf, he is going to get raped

why people dont just assume its; check the grade, weigh it, work out the value on near spot price and then subtract the handling/melting/profit etc costs

with gold at record prices they would be making a killing with the lobotomized general public walking into their stores...


----------



## greebly24

My personal experience with gold by a novice investor!

My Dad finally convinced me to enter the stock market and to buy $10,000 (alot of money to me) of shares in Nov 2007. Got advice and bought blue-chip shares which the broker claimed were "no-brainers". Sadly this was the exact peak of the market and my shares lost 50% of their value since then.

Disillusioned, I became interested in alternative investments including gold. Seemed to suit my apocalyptic viewpoint. Also gold seemed to store wealth when everything else was going down (including cash due to inflation). Read that an ounce of gold today buys 400 loaves of bread. In 1000BC (a thousand years before Christ) an ounce of gold bought 400 loaves of bread. It holds it's value. It's not an appreciating asset, unless a global crisis occurs...

About a year ago when the Aus dollar was approaching parity with the US dollar, I bought 4 Krugerands (1 oz) for $980 each ($950 bullion value plus $30 margin per coin) from a local jeweller/bullion dealer. The US gold price was about US$935. Now the gold price is around US$950, but is AU$1440 due to our dropping exchange rate. I can easily walk back into the jeweller and sell my Krugerands at near-bullion price. That is a 47% profit in the last 12 months!

I understand the craziness of gold bugs who have waited two decades for the price of gold to rise. I am also aware of the obvious insanity of investing productive capital into an inert metal. But what other investments have people on this forum made that returned 47% profit in the last year? Actually, I do know of one other --- silver. Six months ago I also bought 11 one-kilogram bars of silver for AU$480/kg. It is now at AU$660/kg, or 37% profit in six months.

I have now learnt more about the stock market and am investing a portion of my meagre portfolio in gold/silver producers and some explorers. Cost are going down (fuel, labour) while profit is increasing (price of gold). A small increase in the gold price means a big increase in producers' profits. I'll keep the precious metals I've got safely tucked away.

One thing about diamonds is that their value seems more linked to the state of the economy. When people got more money for luxuries, they pay more for diamonds. The opposite currently seems to be true and I heard about diamonds getting less at auctions nowadays. Like luxury housing.

For those who lean towards the zombie apocalypse scenario (like myself), gold is good. Some survivalists claim only guns and food would be viable. But I guess the closest the planet has come to Mad Max, was in Somalia during the civil war where men with guns were running wild. What was gold worth there? Probably more than life itself. There are also stories of Jews saving their families from the Nazi death camps with a few ounces of gold. And SAS  soldiers carry a few British sovereigns to buy their way out of trouble anywhere in the world. An asset is only worth what someone will pay for it, but throughout human history, everyone has always thought gold is valuable. So it is.

There is a small possibility that the current global financial crisis could get a lot worse. Hyperinflation and massive unemployment; devaluation of paper money; civil strife and international conflict. Remember what happened after the Great Depression? Xenophobia is on the rise once again. A small proportion of your portfolio invested in precious metals might not be especially profitable, but it is good insurance and will never be worthless.

Other than that, it is simply a store of wealth. But anyone who has gone bankrupt or had problems with the taxman or even the evil ex-wife might have appreciated a store of wealth, especially a very-liquid easily-concealed asset like gold. I pay cash but will declare profits for CGT, honest.


This is my first post on this forum. Be kind. But someone asked about gold investment stories. This is mine.


----------



## Ageo

Welcome to the forum greebly, and nice story


----------



## Bill M

greebly24 said:


> This is my first post on this forum. Be kind. But someone asked about gold investment stories. This is mine.




Great post, a very well balanced story. I should look into holding a bit of physical gold myself, cheers.


----------



## Trembling Hand

greebly good timing but you do know that your failure with shares and success with gold was simply poor/lucky timing. It has nothing to do with the instruments you made or lost money on.

Gold does lose value and share do rise. Catching a break on one or the other proves what?


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> greebly good timing but you do know that your failure with shares and success with gold was simply poor/lucky timing. It has nothing to do with the instruments you made or lost money on.
> 
> Gold does lose value and share do rise. Catching a break on one or the other proves what?




That is crap, like the old saying "hold for the long term"

Gold is trending.   "Go with the trend untill the bend" is the one to get into the head.    My rule of thumb is a 5% fall get out (or if in doubt)  10% rise get in.

Catching the break by good judgement is everything.

Welcome Greeby24.      You have learnt to use your own ruler at a young age, I envy that.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> That is crap, like the old saying "hold for the long term"
> 
> Gold is trending.   "Go with the trend untill the bend" is the one to get into the head.    My rule of thumb is a 5% fall get out (or if in doubt)  10% rise get in.
> 
> Catching the break by good judgement is everything.




Explod you are a ripper. 

My point is there is time for everything. Which turned on its head there are times to avoid things. 07 it was shares at some time it will be golds turn to be avoided because it will be toxic priced against other instruments. I was saying just because something worked once doesn't mean it will always work therefore don't fall in love with it.


Which is unfortunately advice you didn't take with your disastrous SBM love affair. in spite of you sprouting cliches after you averaged down a couple of times and then spewed out your holding at the bottom. Just too funny!!

"Go with the trend until the bend" you should add "do as I say not as I do"!!!

Exactly when did you take on these rules of thumb??


----------



## Worthless Paper

Also new to the forum. Wanted to add my 2cents... being a PM bug and all.

Big fan of Jim Sinclair, GATA.org and Ted Butler.

Gold/silver miners are an absolute bargain now and have been trauling for good stocks at knock down prices over the past few months

On a macro level, i really do believe we are witnessing the collapse of the current monetary system. This is the real reason for the position we are in, no? Trigerred by the sub-prime crisis, yes. But certainly not the cause of the crisis as trumpeted by talking heads on TV. This monetary system must collapse eventually....i think anyone who understands the nature of fractional reserve banking realises this...the real question is in which fashion? Im siding with the hyperinflation camp as i believe its a gradual implosion that can be moulded and massaged by government throughout its duration. A deflationary collapse would tend to be more sudden and would bankrupt the current banking and corporate establishment which i dont beleive is in the interests of any government. 

The current deflationary forces may continue for another 12-18ths (unless we see sudden devaluation of the USD), which means lower RE and stock prices. But eventually governments will throw enough money at it to buoy prices, and we'll be in for one last inflationary bubble before it finally collapses.Im now only interested in precious metals. But when agri-commodities such as wheat, corn, rice, soybeans (all down appox 60%) etc finally turn up...i think there will be huge profits to be made in the next big bull market in food.

Any debate on the macro level is welcomed.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Explod you are a ripper.
> 
> "Go with the trend until the bend" you should add "do as I say not as I do"!!!




Spot on T/H and apologies for being too brash.   I have learnt some hard lessons and would not go so far as to mean anyone to follow me.   Yes sentiment gets in the way of the best plans sometimes.


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Spot on T/H and apologies for being too brash.




Yes after all that is my job


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Explod you are a ripper.
> 
> My point is there is time for everything. Which turned on its head there are times to avoid things. 07 it was shares at some time it will be golds turn to be avoided because it will be toxic priced against other instruments. I was saying just because something worked once doesn't mean it will always work therefore don't fall in love with it.
> 
> 
> Which is unfortunately advice you didn't take with your disastrous SBM love affair. in spite of you sprouting cliches after you averaged down a couple of times and then spewed out your holding at the bottom. Just too funny!!
> 
> "Go with the trend until the bend" you should add "do as I say not as I do"!!!
> 
> Exactly when did you take on these rules of thumb??




And it's gold's turn, has been for the last 9 years. At the same time don't discount it because of ??? whatever you are down on gold for? Being totally objective, even without being a 'bug' if people havn't bought gold shares recently then they will have missed a big money making oppy. 

(As for SBM, it's still bottom feeding, only up another 10% today - move along, nothing to see here  - would 100% return be good enough for you?)


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> (As for SBM, it's still bottom feeding, only up another 10% today - move along, nothing to see here  - would 100% return be good enough for you?)




Yes about 4 more 100% rises from the low and you will be back to Break Even!! 

I'm not down on gold. Its just another thing to trade. Not the be all and end all. Not yet. Not by a long shot. Infact most who are gold bugs have taken it in the neck with their love affair. But still like to quote numbers from the nasty lows not from where they got in much higher.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes about 4 more 100% rises from the low and you will be back to Break Even!!
> 
> I'm not down on gold. Its just another thing to trade. Not the be all and end all. Not yet. Not by a long shot. Infact most who are gold bugs have taken it in the neck with their love affair. But still like to quote numbers from the nasty lows not from where they got in much higher.




Taken it in the neck? How did you come to that conclusion? Even if they are flatlining they are still in front of the general investing public & pros. However, I can qoute some good cold hard numbers to you - up $100k on SBM & still holding, gold portfolio showing 80% return.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Well done UF. You didn't lose any last year on SBM


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Well done UF. You didn't lose any last year on SBM





My big hurt was a buy at 70 cents last year and a sell after the fall at 40.   A buy recently at .31 and sell at .29.   Back in again last week at .395   Only had 10% portfolio in so not that bad.    I often have days away from the screen and a lot can happen.   I gain more than I lose or I would not be here.


----------



## Trembling Hand

And that's my point it not the instrument its the timing!!

Blind faith in an idea rarely pays. Its the execution and therefore everything works and nothing works :nuts:

Until the tanks are rolling down the street Gold is just another thing to punt on.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> And that's my point it not the instrument its the timing!!
> 
> Blind faith in an idea rarely pays. Its the execution and therefore everything works and nothing works :nuts:
> 
> Until the tanks are rolling down the street Gold is just another thing to punt on.




It's both actually. The instrument & timing. The instrument has been sitting up, forecasting what was going to happen, what did happen and what _may_ happen ie it's been right so far. What practical choice is there now when even money in the bank is not as as safe as it was - or whether the global financial system will survive eg look at Japan going off a cliff?

If you are waiting for the tanks then you will have waited too long? Gold will be over $US1k by the end of this week, oh yes, you mark my words  (sticking my neck out nervously ) It's only $AU13 away from $AU1500!  Buy some *gold* and it will steady your trembles


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> If you are waiting for the tanks then you will have waited too long? Gold will be over $US1k by the end of this week, oh yes, you mark my words  (sticking my neck out nervously ) It's only $AU13 away from $AU1500!  Buy some *gold* and it will steady your trembles



It still easier to buy the paper Unc, till then my trembles are better in cash each night.

And anyway I need the cash to short the hell out of GC when the bugs get excited again. Next move will be a ripper for someone. :


----------



## projack

Trembling Hand said:


> greebly good timing but you do know that your failure with shares and success with gold was simply poor/lucky timing. It has nothing to do with the instruments you made or lost money on.
> 
> Gold does lose value and share do rise. Catching a break on one or the other proves what?




Tell this to the Japanese who bought the NIKKEI at 46000 20 years ago and selling it  under 7500 now.
Also see my email I sent to a friend thinking like you.

Hi Bob
How is everything there? Have you switched to gold yet?
Have you seen the ASX and A$ Gold chart next to each other? This even surprise to me. Not long ago you could buy 1oz gold for 20 NAB shares now you need over 84 to get one even more if you want physical.
Regards Peter


----------



## Trembling Hand

projack said:


> Tell this to the Japanese who bought the NIKKEI at 46000 20 years ago and selling it  under 7500 now.
> Also see my email I sent to a friend thinking like you.




DUMB Example. At least I am thinking. Which you seem to not be capable of doing. If you say my point is wrong, that you shouldn't confuse timing with the long term out come. That gold is THE instrument to be "investing" in.

Lets take you feeble example of one point in time to see if it stands the same test you tried to pin on me,

Lets say the same Japanese  bought gold 28 years ago instead of shares,



Lets say they got it at avg 1980 price of about $650.




Boy this gold game ain't all its said to be!!
Maybe the 90's will be better.




Nope!! Late 90's?


Nope! Still misery




Ha! what a joke this gold stuff. It's 2006 before we get to breakeven and not till last year until it shows a bit of profit!! 28 wasted years in gold and your point is what?? You make money when you buy it? Tell that to the fools that thought that in 1980s-the last bull market in gold.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh and here is a chart for a popular japanese share that was around in you example and has been paying a div. Bugger me its been in profit all that time! So tell me your point again??


----------



## explod

T/H were you one of those who got on last in 1980 by any chance.   I know of a few and they have been bitter on gold since.

Your charts are selective and any guru can make the case they want.   Many who have lost big time from attending the great seminars of the last 10 years can attest to this. 

The 1980 blow off began when the bull started in 1970 at about $35 an ounce and it hit 800.    35 into 800 is 22times.    The current bull market was confimed to begin after it bottomed twice between 1999 and 2002.  22 times 250 is 5,500   .   It is said that on an inflation adjusted basis, $US800 is or should be about $2,300.    Add that the this financial crises is a bit worse this time and it is becoming hard to find value anywhere else then maybe gold could hit US$5000 on a bit of overexuberance by those who will regret it 20 years hence.

Anyway like your charts, just a bit of ruminating

cheers explod


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Your charts are selective and any guru can make the case they want.




Thats my friggin point!

I'm not down on gold, stocks, pork bellies or any other bloody thing.

They can ALL pay with GOOD timing and they ALL take with POOR timing. Anyone who wants to take the last 3 years and believe that's it will be repeated to infinity will end up just like the people who fell in love with the bull market ..... Broke!

And no I have never held gold more than a day. Though I have held gold shares from 03 to 06ish I think. And my partner still holds them on my recommendation.


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Thats my friggin point!
> 
> I'm not down on gold, stocks, pork bellies or any other bloody thing.
> 
> They can ALL pay with GOOD timing and they ALL take with POOR timing. Anyone who wants to take the last 3 years and believe that's it will be repeated to infinity will end up just like the people who fell in love with the bull market ..... Broke!
> 
> And no I have never held gold more than a day. Though I have held gold shares from 03 to 06ish I think. And my partner still holds them on my recommendation.





Good.   

I follow charts closely and they assist greatly.    But the fundamentals are why I am (at this time) attached to the gold idea.   Some research will show the fundamentals for gold a very good for some time to come.


----------



## moXJO

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone who wants to take the last 3 years and believe that's it will be repeated to infinity will end up just like the people who fell in love with the bull market ..... Broke!
> 
> .




Hey don't knock my future Buyers confidence


----------



## MR.

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm not down on gold. Its just another thing to trade.




Exactly..............  



Uncle Festivus said:


> It's both actually. The instrument & timing.




To be the instrument, I hope it's hidden under your bed otherwise it appears to be just a trade!

Where is gold stored?  

Is it in a safe with an "I owe you"? .......  Hmmm


----------



## Glen48

Every thing goes up and down RE goes up shares go down..but this is not your average trading years and its flying by the seat of your pants stuff so you need to look for the signs and when USA is now paying $1M a second on their bail out you have to admit that's some thing else.
Buy Gold and sell when the hot new investment arrives.
Any one who purchase a house 30 yrs ago would be in trouble to day..Any one whop paid 100's K for a 70 Muscle cars would be in trouble when you can buy a erotic sports car for less.l


----------



## MR.

Worthless Paper said:


> The current deflationary forces may continue for another 12-18ths (unless we see sudden devaluation of the USD), which means lower RE and stock prices. But eventually governments will throw enough money at it to buoy prices, and we'll be in for one last inflationary bubble before it finally collapses.




So this "worthless paper" stuff might just survive a little longer!


----------



## acouch

my eod gold chart..
for those interested..
ac


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus said:


> It's both actually. The instrument & timing. The instrument has been sitting up, forecasting what was going to happen, what did happen and what _may_ happen ie it's been right so far. What practical choice is there now when even money in the bank is not as as safe as it was - or whether the global financial system will survive eg look at Japan going off a cliff?
> 
> If you are waiting for the tanks then you will have waited too long? Gold will be over $US1k by the end of this week, oh yes, you mark my words  (sticking my neck out nervously ) It's only $AU13 away from $AU1500!  Buy some *gold* and it will steady your trembles




Hey Trembles, I jagged the $1k gold thingy 



MR. said:


> Exactly..............
> 
> 
> 
> To be the instrument, I hope it's hidden under your bed otherwise it appears to be just a trade!
> 
> Where is gold stored?
> 
> Is it in a safe with an "I owe you"? .......  Hmmm




Not sure what you mean? I have some bullion, some gold equities, and some cash.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Hey Trembles, I jagged the $1k gold thingy




Yes Unc good _timing _of your short on the USD.


----------



## projack

Trembling Hand said:


> DUMB Example. At least I am thinking. Which you seem to not be capable of doing. If you say my point is wrong, that you shouldn't confuse timing with the long term out come. That gold is THE instrument to be "investing" in.
> 
> Ha! what a joke this gold stuff. It's 2006 before we get to breakeven and not till last year until it shows a bit of profit!! 28 wasted years in gold and your point is what?? You make money when you buy it? Tell that to the fools that thought that in 1980s-the last bull market in gold.




I never suggested to invest in gold in good economic times, so I didn’t change from stock to gold just randomly for years ago, but, but for me at least it wasn’t hard to seen this crises coming. So don’t jump on me giving good advice, especially if everyone in the last few years that listened to me made money on it. 
I told my friend years ago to sell his A$100,000 valued NAB shares and buy gold on it. He came up with the same arrogant “I know better than you” answer like you. Now he is siting on A$52,000 loss instead of a A$120,000 profit.
See also my earlier letter to him on the beginning of this thread.


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## Trembling Hand

projack said:


> I told my friend years ago to sell his A$100,000 valued NAB shares and buy gold on it. He came up with the same arrogant “I know better than you” answer like you. Now he is siting on A$52,000 loss instead of a A$120,000 profit.
> See also my earlier letter to him on the beginning of this thread.




!!


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## MR.

Uncle Festivus said:


> Not sure what you mean? I have some bullion, some gold equities, and some cash.




Unk, assume the instrument you speak of is "gold". Gold is the instrument because of the safe haven in unsettling times.  But when the tanks roll down the streets you state it's too late (to jump on)?  

I was just referring to where your gold is being stored?  If it's where everyone stores their gold, I'm just bringing up the actual instrument of gold as a safe haven perhaps may not be as safe as the instrument's description. 

Cash is being held at the bank in your name I assume. Just like your holding of gold in a vault somewhere.  If money fell apart you will not be able to withdraw your money back out from the bank.  (although cash deposits are backed by the government, whatever that means) But Gold will still exist.  But, because money has fallen apart do you think that gold in that vault will remain yours?  Hope it's in your backyard, then it's the true instrument.

Just a discussion


.
.
.


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## inenigma

Agreed.  Gold in the bank's holding vault is as good as cash in the bank I reckon.  I think I'd prefer shares over physically holding gold (or trusting a bank to hold it for me).  Just my 2cents.


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## Uncle Festivus

MR. said:


> Unk, assume the instrument you speak of is "gold". Gold is the instrument because of the safe haven in unsettling times.  But when the tanks roll down the streets you state it's too late (to jump on)?
> 
> I was just referring to where your gold is being stored?  If it's where everyone stores their gold, I'm just bringing up the actual instrument of gold as a safe haven perhaps may not be as safe as the instrument's description.
> 
> Cash is being held at the bank in your name I assume. Just like your holding of gold in a vault somewhere.  If money fell apart you will not be able to withdraw your money back out from the bank.  (although cash deposits are backed by the government, whatever that means) But Gold will still exist.  But, because money has fallen apart do you think that gold in that vault will remain yours?  Hope it's in your backyard, then it's the true instrument.
> 
> Just a discussion
> 
> 
> .
> .
> .




Yes, that is the dilemma facing everyone who is concerned about 'preserving' the value of their monetary units derived from productive work, up till now manifested in the form of paper money. We're talking the worst case scenarion here of course.

I have about 10% of net worth in bullion stored close by ie not in the 'trust' of anyone else. The only other way I would hold bullion is through the Perth Mint's allocated option, all other forms rely on somebody else keeping their end of the bargain, which if things get ugly they will look after themselves first.

I have approx 30% cash in bank at call. I don't believe the governments' deposit guarentee is physically enforcable ie if it was called apon then the gov simply doesn't have the physical money to give out. The problem then becomes when to withdraw the cash I have and then to 'store' it somewhere. 

I have the rest, 60%, in gold equities. If I sell them & the banks are insolvent how will I get paid, and in what currency? It has only just started happening, but there are a few gold companies starting to talk about selling gold direct to shareholders, or public for that matter, so that might be another option.

I'm not sure if that's the best way to go but at least I'm not losing money, in fact up a lot now (+100%). Is there another way? Nobody knows coz it's never happened before ie the collapse of the monetary system! Not even in the first great depression. We're turning Japanese on a global scale?


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## Glen48

Gold has now pushed above $1,000 in 2009. Whether it will rise further or fall back to retest its lows is unknown. What is known  is that gold's rise someday will not be stopped. Whether that day is today or in the future is uncertain. It is certain, however, that it will come.

The battle of central banks against gold has been in progress ever since the US dollar was  officially de-linked from gold in 1973. The battle is now over 35 years old. When it began, the price of gold was $35 per ounce. Last year and again this year, it reached $1,000. For those unaware of the battle over gold, there is little appreciation of what has taken place.

For those aware, the 35 year tortured ascent  of gold is a sign of its strength. Against all odds, the wishes of central bankers and those intent on preserving the empires that fiat currencies have built, have been thwarted.

That despite their best efforts, gold has continued to rise and will continune to do so until the resistance of the bankers is finally broken. On that day, the markets will reflect the triumph of truth and the fall of hubris.

D. Schoon


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## michael_selway

Hi Guys

Just wondering if you had any problems Trading ASX:GOLD on Etrade?

I tried to putting some Limit Orders in today and it gave me an "Error" Stock is Suspended"?

Does anyone know about this?

thx

MS


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## Redwings

michael_selway said:


> Hi Guys
> 
> Just wondering if you had any problems Trading ASX:GOLD on Etrade?
> 
> I tried to putting some Limit Orders in today and it gave me an "Error" Stock is Suspended"?
> 
> Does anyone know about this?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS






Had the same problem too. 

Was on the phone with them for about 10 mins (8mins on hold) as they tried their very best to explain that they are having technical difficulties......they said ASX was suppose to put it on Warrants but changed their minds or something and it affected their systems  

The guys asked me to try again tomorrow morning.... Here's hoping that price will still be favorable tomorrow morning.


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## michael_selway

Redwings said:


> Had the same problem too.
> 
> Was on the phone with them for about 10 mins (8mins on hold) as they tried their very best to explain that they are having technical difficulties......they said ASX was suppose to put it on Warrants but changed their minds or something and it affected their systems
> 
> The guys asked me to try again tomorrow morning.... Here's hoping that price will still be favorable tomorrow morning.




Hm ok thanks for that, yeah fingers crossed 

thx

MS


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## aramz

Any luck with the pruchasing of the GOLD etf guys? 

How do peopl on her erate the ASX Gold etf with that of purchasing physical gold. Is the GOLD etf a safe investment. I have found many sites stating info about the new precious metal etf's but would love to know what experienced traders thought of this as an investment as it seems alot easier to invets in compared to waiting months and months for physical gold from the Perth mine etc.


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## Glen48

Where is this stuff going????


PORTFOLIO POINT: Having briefly topped $US1000 an ounce, the gold price appears to be following a familiar pattern.

Too far, too fast. That’s what hurt gold this week after its moment at a price above $US1000 an ounce, and then a fast retreat as demand dried up and sellers quit investment positions. Moreover, gold scrap, old jewellery and even old gold teeth had started to hit the market in volume in recent weeks, a sure sign of a “top”.

Will gold run up again? “Probably” is the only safe answer because gold is an extremely price-sensitive commodity with thousands of tonnes available every time the price rises too quickly.

For investors with an interest in gold (and that ought to be everyone) now might be a good time to sit on the sidelines or even trim their exposure because last week’s surge in the gold price changed the dynamics of the market.

Once the $US1000 mark was breached, gold investors, many simply active in the exchange-trade fund (ETF) market, were swamped by sellers of physical gold keen to cash out of surplus gold assets.

In one case, according to a US television report on Tuesday, the president of Gold and Jewelry Buyers of America, Jim Mataich, said he had even bought gold teeth last weekend at his store in Parma, Ohio.

“People were coming out of the woodwork to unload stuff just to get them through another month or two,” Mataich said. “Coins, rings, jewellery, heirlooms … even the gold teeth they had sitting in a drawer.”

That dramatic description, from a regional US pawn broker operating a shop called Cash-4-Gold, highlights the two-faced nature of gold, which is both a form of money and just another commodity used as a body adornment, by some industries, and in dentistry.

Until the $US1000 mark was cracked, gold was in its monetary mood, acting as a safe haven for investors fleeing most other investment classes. Over the weekend gold put on its commodity face with recession-hit households around the world cashing in everything from old bracelets to Granny’s teeth.

It was the high of $US1007.70 in New York last Friday that spooked the gold market, in a precise re-run of what happened 11 months ago.



On March 14 last year gold closed in London at $US1003.50 an ounce, peaked the next day at $US1011.25, then started a slow decline that took the price back to $US712 by October – a 29.9% slide.

That downward move was broken by the global financial crisis which followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the US, and “runs” on other US banks as the financial system teetered on collapse.

Between October and last Friday, as stockmarkets crashed around the world, the gold price soared by 41% in US dollar terms, and even more in other currencies. In Australia, the gold price passed the $1500 mark last week, but is now back around $1490.

It is reasonable to assume – unless you are a one-eyed gold addict who believes the end of the world is nigh – that the flood of gold scrap will continue to hit the market over the next few months thanks, in part, to the very reason it rose so quickly: fear of recession.

Investors controlled the leg up as they shifted cash out of banks and shares into gold. Households desperate to raise cash as the recession bites are now in control of the market – a classic tug of war between buyers and sellers.

To put the gold market into clearer focus consider what happened over the past two weeks to one of the world’s top gold analysts, Bart Melek, from the Canadian investment bank, BMO Capital Markets.

On February 9, as a preparatory document before BMO’s annual Global Metals and Mining investment conference in Florida, Melek published a report titled: A perfect storm brewing for gold.

No one who has followed the gold sector for many years, including me, could fault anything in that report, which concluded that gold should be “a strong performer for at least the next three years”.

But, in the detail of Melek’s report was this comment: “Gold appears to have run ahead of its main drivers; the US dollar is strengthening and disinflationary risks are growing in the short run.”



In other words, two critically important factors that underpin the gold price – fear of inflation eroding the value of paper (fiat) money, and a decline in the value of the US dollar – are missing in the latest speculative rush into gold, and away from other asset classes.

Melek added: “It is possible that gold will retrench below $US850, before trending up toward $US1000 later in the year.”

He was right. Just early, and it was the dash up (and over) the $US1000 mark that has caused gold advocates to draw back and for gold sellers to take control of the market, at least in the short term.

No one is tipping that gold will retreat back to $US712 as it did last year, but it would be reasonable to believe that a period of price contraction has started as surplus gold is absorbed by the market.

A table and a graph in Melek’s February 9 gold analysis are useful tools in understanding the dynamics of the gold market.







In the table (A), which is a gold supply and demand model, it can be seen that primary gold production (new gold from mines) has been in decline since hitting a peak of 2621 tonnes in 2003, and falling by 9% to 2385 tonnes (and perhaps rising slightly this year thanks to the lure of a high price).

Sticking with 2008 it can be seen that primary gold production was boosted by official sector (government) sales of 279 tonnes and 1108 tonnes of scrap to lift total gold supply of 3772 tonnes.





The importance of scrap in the equation (including Granny’s teeth) is shown by the fact that it represented 29.4% of total supply last year – and the higher the price rises the more scrap makes it to market.

On the demand side, equally interesting things have been happening. As the gold price has risen jewellery and industrial/dental demand has dropped, a classic example of price sensitivity.

Taking up the slack in demand has been investment, especially bars, coins and the new boy on the block, exchange-traded funds.

The importance of ETFs, products that hold gold in precise proportion to cash invested, is shown in the rise from just three tonnes in 2002 to 308 tonnes last year, a rise tracked in a separate graph (B) which, unfortunately uses troy ounces as its demand measure. Australia's biggest ETF is the ASX listed Gold Bullion Securities (GOLD).

Useful as the BMO graphics are to understanding what drives the gold market (up and down) there is a third illustration that highlights why gold should be part of a balanced investment portfolio.

Governments, the same people flooding the world with paper money as a means of beating back recession, remain true believers in gold.

According to the BMO table (using data provided by the World Gold Council, Bloomberg and other sources) governments around the world, despite some high profile sales, retain 26,354 tonnes of gold.

Interesting as that number is there are two other numbers that catch the eye. The US, with its 8133.5 tonnes of gold stuffed into Fort Knox, owns gold that represents 577% of its reserves – in other words, it’s the only positive asset on the US balance sheet.

But, the really important number for investors is at the bottom of the table – the 11.3% gold occupies as the total of all government reserves.



There’s a message in that percentage and one that I’ve written about before. Gold is an important part of any investment portfolio, private or public, with 10% being a rough guide to how much exposure you should have.

The tricky questions are how to buy gold (shares, bullion, ETFs) and when?

For purists, you cannot beat taking physical possession of gold, complete with the cost of safely storing it. However, well-run ETFs are a reasonable substitute though in truth they do carry an implied trust because all you are actually getting is a piece of paper, which says you’re entitled to a certain amount of gold – just don’t expect to be able to ever see it.

Gold shares come in all shapes and sizes, from the well-run and profitable producers such as Newcrest and Lihir, to the re-emerging producers such as Kingsgate and Resolute, and the new boys on the block, such as Centamin.

Interestingly, the new float game is not (yet) being played with gold despite the high price. There are no new floats listed with the ASX, just Ballarat South which tried (but failed) to float last year.

Most recent raisings have been for recapitalisation of existing gold miners such as Newmont and Newcrest, both of which attracted a flood of money. In the case of Newcrest, it asked for $500 million and took in $750 million, virtually overnight.

But, that was last week, before gold’s mad dash through the $US1000 mark with the next few months likely to see a retreat.

BMO’s Melek reckons the average price in the first half of this year will be about $US850 an ounce, a tip that implies a substantial fall. In the second half, the average is forecast to be $US925, with the same price tip applying to 2010.

Those prices are, obviously, one man’s view of the gold market. But it is a well-informed view that should not be ignored.

From Tim Teadgold.


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## Dangerous

Great post... thanks glen

i said it on a gold thread on ASF - demand will be very strong, but supply could emerge.... and people call me a gold bug.  There are lot of rumours about shortages which are not factual.

On ETF's - remember that there is a small storage charge taken out... Eg.  GOLD on the ASX is supposed to be a tenth of an ounce but is actually something like 99.93% of an ounce.

I have bought bullions - ounces and five ounce bars - i much prefer it to ETF's, although ETF's are probably more cost effective as you don't get stung by the dealers spread.


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## projack

This is form another forum, but spot on;

I have very simplistic view on gold/silver. I guess it all comes down to why you hold it.

A lot of people here just trade gold, and hope it goes up, so they get more fiat. I guess these are the people Nadler refers to every day....those watching technical levels, jewellery demand, etf flows, scrap, comex etc. Nothing wrong with all that, but it's just short term trading to me, and you might as well be talking about a tech stock or cotton futures etc.

The other reason to hold pm's is of course as a store of value. If you hold any paper savings, you take on counterparty risk and pay the government rate of inflation via loss of purchasing power over time. This requires total trust in the bankers / politicians etc to protect your wealth, report accurate inflation numbers, financial accounts etc, otherwise the erosion is far greater.

PM's are first and foremost an insurance policy against massive and sudden collapse in confidence in the current monetary system, or individual currencies -Iceland, Zimbabwe, Argentina etc.

Governments will continue to supress PM's until the game is up and the system really breaks down globally. I imagine when it's over there will be no price for gold or silver on comex - it will just be a unit of barter / currency again (but with far higher purchasing power than now). 

Sentiment seems high now - taxi drivers recommending gold coins etc. But I say well done to them....better late than never. Try and imagine what tiny percentage of the world's savings are in gold and silver compared to USD, EUR, JPY, GBP etc. 

Real interest rates are deeply negative, trust is shattered, and governments are monetizing debt (overt inflation). This should have already sent PM prices rocketing in many peoples views....but it's all relative...the metals are rising very fast year over year (15% on average the last 8 years against all the main fiat currencies) and just recently have moved very sharply higher against GBP and EUR - gold is up 65% since Sep in GBP terms! - that's verging on parabolic.

If it goes back down and stays down - then surely that's a sign that confidence is mended, politicians / bankers can become 'institutions of trust' once again and we can all do a lot less worrying.


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## cutz

G'Day All,

Sorry if it's already been asked but has anyone got any suggestions for a large cap, blue chip shortable fund that accurately tracks the price of gold ?


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## cutz

Hello Again,

I did a quick IB contract search and two caught my eye, GLD & IAU.
Should have checked there first,

Any further suggestions would be appreciated.


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## cutz

Hello it's me again,

I was just checking out the GLD prospectus and there's a statement stating QUOTE “I am a U.S. investor and wish to access the prospectus” END QUOTE, does anyone know if there are restrictions on Australians trading this product?

Here’s the link for info http://www.spdrgoldshares.com


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## greebly24

Another newbie post.

Has anyone tried investing using the gold:silver ratio (or more accurately the silver:gold ratio)? I have read abit about it and it seems to suit the zombie apocalypse scenario quite well, as it is an PM investment strategy whereby you are always holding either gold or silver. Basically when the ratio is high, you sell your gold and buy silver. When it is low, sell silver and buy gold.

I have been watching the ratio over the past 18 months or so and it has varied from around 50:1 to 80:1 (by that I mean it took 80 oz of silver to buy 1 oz of gold). Has anyone tried it? I guess the premiums would eat a chunk of your money but am interested. Since 1970 the ratio has varied from 20 to 90, with the mean average being 54:1 (it is currently 72:1).

So in a perfect world if you had 10 oz of gold and ratio was 90:1, you'd get 900 oz of silver. Then if the ratio dropped to 20:1, you'd swap it back for 45 oz of gold. You have basically made 35 oz of gold profit (minus premiums), and had some PM in your portfolio the whole time.

Just wondering! Also the platinum:gold ratio almost reached 1:1 a few months ago. Now it is back around 0.79:1 (ie 1 oz of gold would buy 0.79 oz of platinum). Has anyone worked out if you can profit from this, and tried? Ot is it simply too slow?

And one completely crazy idea I have been mucking around with in relation to physical bullion is, what about a platinumaladium:silver:gold ratio investment strategy?


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## noirua




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## noirua




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