# GBPUSD thoughts



## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Watching the price at moment waiting to see if it turns around


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Using this thread to discuss the currency price chart and my thoughts on it


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

This is not advice just my thoughts


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Do you watch correlated pairs? Im looking at GBP AUD ATM  Not GBP USD tonight. May get a bounce shortly of a previous support on GBP AUD which may help the Cable


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

My biase is short but looking for counter trend trade


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Do you watch correlated pairs? Im looking at GBP AUD ATM  Not GBP USD tonight. May get a bounce shortly of a previous support on GBP AUD which may help the Cable



Hi Tripple no i don't i concentrate on the one pair and it's price action


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Tripple are you trading the GBPAUD?


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Fair enough . Ive expanded to 30 Pairs! picking the best 8 or so and gold.


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

No . on my screen ATM but prev support close below so no short till that breaks.


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Currently short EUR/CHF     XAU USD ,  NZD CAD , AUD CAD


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

I think all pairs are correlated or inversely correlated anyway


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## barney (12 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Watching the price at moment waiting to see if it turns around



Pound US is a heavy Short in the short term …. in my view


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

I monitor price action before Frankfurt opens then wait for entry signal as usually volatility increases when London opens


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Yes I use the correlations and pick the ones with what i believe to be best RR. Also helps me see why price action may have stalled "mid Air" so to speak


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

I agree with you but looking for counter trade in first half of today's session


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

I reckon short to 1.28. just trade your plan Will


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

I'm liking support at 850 at moment


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> I reckon short to 1.28. just trade your plan Will



I have a counter trend trade part of my plan


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Yes trading one pair can make you find a few tricks!


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

AUD is busting round nos short ATM


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## barney (12 November 2018)

Pound has turned now


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## barney (12 November 2018)

Long Pound Aussie


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

What timeframe you trade will


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## barney (12 November 2018)

barney said:


> Long Pound Aussie




Too early with that


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> What timeframe you trade will



5 minute


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Yeah. Has not touched the support at 1.7852 yet. Im short only AUD all pairs ATM


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

barney said:


> Too early with that



Get stopped Barney?


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Who wants a coffee?


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## barney (12 November 2018)

Apologies for invading thread … All trades closed and   Pound is still way Short


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

I thought Will was up for a chat?


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## barney (12 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Get stopped Barney?



Nah closed position … bad read … story of my life …… But I love Forex


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

barney said:


> Apologies for invading thread … All trades closed and   Pound is still way Short



Happy to interract with trading as it happens Barney


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Tripple b are you holding short from last week? I close my positons at end of week


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Should start a live fx traders thread . All pairs all the action live. with running commentry. could get interesting


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

No 15 min timeframe .hold from a few mins to a few hours . maybe overnight


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Who wants a coffee?



Just made one myself


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

About 10 trades per night


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> No 15 min timeframe .hold from a few mins to a few hours . maybe overnight



What you call over night when market closes briefly when US closes , or at least goes quiet.


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## barney (12 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Happy to interract with trading as it happens Barney



Cheers ….. FX is currently in the "transition zone" …… No trades for me at the moment


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## peter2 (12 November 2018)

"twilight zone"

Seeing weakness in UJ and taking profits in AUDUSD, EURUSD shorts.  Not trading GBPUSD because any political news on Brexit decisions will impact currency.


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

barney said:


> Cheers ….. FX is currently in the "transition zone" …… No trades for me at the moment



Can you explain what you mean by transition zone?


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

OK here we go first position of the week , long at 2855


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

GBP AUD trying to bounce. needs to break downtrend resistance and previous high for me to go long


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

When are you expecting that to come


peter2 said:


> "twilight zone"
> 
> Seeing weakness in UJ and taking profits in AUDUSD, EURUSD shorts.  Not trading GBPUSD because any political news on Brexit decisions will impact currency.



 out as i don't follow news peter2


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Got a target will or just close at end of week?


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Got a target will or just close at end of week?



Always close end of week as market can do anything over weekend


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

You watching Tripple B ? might have support at 2850


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## barney (12 November 2018)

peter2 said:


> "twilight zone"
> 
> Seeing weakness in UJ and taking profits in AUDUSD, EURUSD shorts.  Not trading GBPUSD because any political news on Brexit decisions will impact currency.




Hey @peter2 …. I confess I haven't traded FX for a while but saw the boys thread (Will and Triple) and got a bit excited lol …….. 

Rule number 1 with FX … watch the news … or  …. appreciate your input as always. 

PS @willoneau  .... When I said "transition zone", I was purely reacting to how the Pairs were behaving (ie. not clear) … so the "money" is positioning itself and it could go either way …

As Pete has pointed out …. News is due so "positioning" is totally expected …

In a sense I am happy that I picked that up from price action alone … but on the flip side, it tells me why I often fail at FX trading …. lack of discipline  ……. I still love Forex lol


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Yep big volume . Dont forget short sellers will be covering there. I need to see double bottom then break of downtrend resistance and break of double bottom resistance before a long on these. My counter trend long rules.


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

NZD CAD closed at BE.  EUR CHF closed 2x R win.. woohoo back on track after week of drawdown.
Now just need gold to hit $1200


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Gre


Triple B said:


> NZD CAD closed at BE.  EUR CHF closed 2x R win.. woohoo back on track after week of drawdown.
> Now just need gold to hit $1200



at to hear Tripple


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Looking at 2920 and possibly 3000 but only a thought as possible targets


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

GBP NZD just filled short to 1.9011  . better stop typing here so i can fill out the log! Back Soon


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> GBP NZD just filled short to 1.9011  . better stop typing here so i can fill out the log! Back Soon



Still long GBPUSD but just


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Closed half position at 2852


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Did you leave any room for the second test of support? What I notice is that the short sellers cover, then selling continues as shorts try for positions above support. then as support is reached a second wave of buyers usually comes in creating a double bottom. only after that will i consider a trade. long as described above and short after support is broken, tested then rejected


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Just used my exit trigger and also reduced my risk


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

If it breaks back up will go long with new position


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

AUD looks ready for another short run!


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

barney said:


> Hey @peter2 …. I confess I haven't traded FX for a while but saw the boys thread (Will and Triple) and got a bit excited lol ……..
> 
> Rule number 1 with FX … watch the news … or  …. appreciate your input as always.
> 
> ...



Barney i trade 5 minute the news will either take me out or move in my direction


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> AUD looks ready for another short run!



Looking that way


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Exit market at 2840 -18pips


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

I suspected that one got Ya  Im going short right now


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Very busy here. Can only have 2 trades with the same currency with risk at once . moved GBP NZD To BE So I could take GBP AUD short .


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B 18pip loss on original risk of 40 pips so happy , next trade please


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Thats it minimise the damage.


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## barney (12 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Barney i trade 5 minute the news will either take me out or move in my direction



All good Will ……. Been away cooking my Wife dinner …… Great to see you guys playing the cut and thrust of FX ….. Please post up your exploits more often as it really livens the place up after hours


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

barney said:


> All good Will ……. Been away cooking my Wife dinner …… Great to see you guys playing the cut and thrust of FX ….. Please post up your exploits more often as it really livens the place up after hours



Glad your enjoying it barney, keeping me honest


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Stopped out 1x r Aud JPY. Still in AUD CAD at BE and GBP AUD full R  GBP USD very close to stop just above 1.28500


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## barney (12 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> *Glad your enjoying it *barney




Absolutely!! ……. I've been here a long time and the days of @Trembling Hand … Nunthewiser … MRC and Co,  and @tech/a going at it hammer and tongs on Futs trading etc regarding after hours trading was a highlight of ASF 

You and Triple B putting your trades out there is Gold for the site so keep it going … and good luck as well!!


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Long entry 2846 with slight slippage


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

I'm doing this to work on my discipline but also enjoying the chat as I'm glued to the screen.


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

NY opens in 10, might get a decision then!


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## barney (12 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Long entry 2846 with slight slippage




I'm only bouncing in and out so please don't take too much credence in my opinion …. but, the EUR/GBP still looks to have some legs?? … therefore and GBP Longs might struggle a bit in the short term perhaps??


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

yep gets pretty boring when nothin doin. i usually watch you tube vid or read on the net on my Trading log monitor


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Got my stop too close to 1.2850. so close bad position sizing and stop placement.Even if it goes in my favour will go in log as poor trade!


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

By the way barney, wife in kitchen cooking my dinner at moment


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

AUD CAD closed BE. GBP USD Closed 1x R loss


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> NY opens in 10, might get a decision then!



What opens in 10 fx NY opens at 10:30pm


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> AUD CAD closed BE. GBP USD Closed 1x R loss



Did you go long GBPUSD ?


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## barney (12 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> By the way barney wife in kitchen cooking my dinner at moment




LOL ….. My wife tells me she thinks I'm a great cook ….. 

I actually know she just hates cooking and will tell me anything to get out of it

I would surmise that if your wife is cooking at this time of night that you guys are still pretty young … half your luck!!


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## barney (12 November 2018)

PS ...You guys are obviously way younger than I am cause you can type 3 times as fast LOL ….


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

barney said:


> LOL ….. My wife tells me she thinks I'm a great cook …..
> 
> I actually know she just hates cooking and will tell me anything to get out of it
> 
> I would surmise that if your wife is cooking at this time of night that you guys are still pretty young … half your luck!!



She just got in from taking daughter to soccer training
My wife says same thing so i tell her i only cook occasionally as a treat and not to spoil her 
Nope wrong side of 50 but just.


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Struggling at 2850 hope to see it pop above


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

oops 10:30 No position on GBP USD . cant tell which way ts moving yet . only BE GBP NZD short now . And still waiting for gold to drop.
Im no spring chicken @44


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

How long you trade for at night Triple ?


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

NOW Im Long GBP USD


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Midnight sydney Time


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> oops 10:30 No position on GBP USD . cant tell which way ts moving yet . only BE GBP NZD short now . And still waiting for gold to drop.
> Im no spring chicken @44



You know which way now ?


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Midnight sydney Time



Bunbury here WA


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Not Always at computer . If I ve got stuff to do will put orders on and leave. Monitor alerts on ph and when reach 4 filled cancel others till I get home


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## barney (12 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> She just got in from taking daughter to soccer training
> My wife says same thing so i tell her i only cook occasionally as a treat and not to spoil her
> Nope wrong side of 50 but just.




Haha …… Even at the wrong side of 50 you are still well in front of this old fella  …… but at least I'm better looking than I was 10 years ago …. then again, my eye sight is not great, so maybe not!

PS ….. Potential Shorts on the EUR/GBP over the next few days if everything pans out as expected ….. looking to enter a bit higher than present however … we shall see what eventuates


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Yes broke out over previous R needs to break Downtrend R now. I entered a bit early.target 1.2990 for profits while I sleep?


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

I'm looking to ride counter trend tonight and go short later tonight hopfully near targets posted earlier


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## barney (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> *Im no spring chicken @44*




At the prime of your middle age !!


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Sounds Good. If Downtrend R is cleared before bed I move stop to BE and sleep. Close in morning if stop or TP not hit . Might leave it alone if half way to target. If It gets stuck under DTR leave stop and check at morning coffee


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

barney said:


> At the prime of your middle age !!


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

market usually quiet untill Frankfurt opens , can get wipsawed.


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

Thought frankfurt is open .
See this 
think frankfurt opens with london . always had trouble with the times
https://www.compareforexbrokers.com.au/forex-trading/hours/


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

I meant tomorrow you said you were long GBPUSD?


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

oh tomorrow. Yes long GBP USD . But will check trade in the morning. decide then whether to leave it on or close, if stop or Target not hit


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Watching sideways move will look to remove half of my position


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> oh tomorrow. Yes long GBP USD . But will check trade in the morning. decide then whether to leave it on or close, if stop or Target not hit



Might want to place stops in market
ops just noticed you do have stop


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Closed half position at 2867, 21pips


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## Triple B (12 November 2018)

yep always have stops. Im off to bed . 4 open all at full R . Looks like Monday might be a losing day again ,will know in the morning. Good night .Good luck!


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

Entry long new position tighten stops


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## willoneau (12 November 2018)

OK take care Triple B


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

closed one position at 2866, -15.2pips
closer look at trade, entry not followed correctly so bad trade


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Entry position 2874


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Closed half position at 2920 leaving one full position long
66.6 pips profit


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Close half position at 2903
29.5 pips profit


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Exit position 2858, -15pips


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Open long 2864
stopped -34pips


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Open long 2853


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

OK went to bed and stopped out while asleep 
-9pips


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Just got up saw a trade and entered going long at 2866


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Now because of my platform i have to put two trades on together to be able to close one, which is why i say close half position . So yesterday with only the two errors my stats which are 
total trades- 12 (halves)
wins - 4
losses - 8
avg win - 30.6 pips
avg loss - 10.3 pips
%return - 4.74 ( small account trading with 5% risk)
profit factor - 1.41


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

My thoughts on yesterday -I had a price target to continue to go short but never reached as it just fell over. I don't chase price so watched as it fell to 2827 which was a large move in first half of session and became a counter trend trade (don't like them much) and my play for the period hoping to get up to my short target before NY closed and resume going with my short outlook. My first target was reached but that became the high of the session (well close enough for me anyway).


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Two positions opened at 2866 -
closed one at 2879, 13pips profit


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Now because of my platform i have to put two trades on together to be able to close one, which is why i say close half position . So yesterday with only the two errors my stats which are
> total trades- 12 (halves)
> wins - 4
> losses - 8
> ...



5% risk is not entirely true, that is max position risk any greater trade isn't taken. So risk varies below that,  today's first trade actually had a risk % of about 2.5%.


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Move stop to BE


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Outlook for moving stop - three possibilities at moment -
false break of current low
continuation above high 
break of low and continue down


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

So why move to BE (talking to myself), it covers two of the three possibilities and scratches if the other occurs, so a win in my eyes


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Move stop to below low, short signal and signs of weakness


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Exit market 2872,
6.2pips profit


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Gday Will. No GBP USD for me tonight. Got GBP AUD order for short under support .
Woke this morning to find GBP USD moved long nicely but not to my target near 1.3. then stopped out.
No disasters as gold short saved me once again


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

BE is good. No Loss and can enter again if moves in right direction again .


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

My thoughts exactly


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Hi Triple B, got quite busy after you left.


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

I'm looking at shorting up around 2900 target


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Yes . Thats why i like to leave trades on over NY session. I have played with auto trailing stops before and will test with 100 trades soon. Would have put me in profit last night  but testing targets at the moment.
Just looking at GBP USD chart now . I Call that the crab market .Moves sideways and claws grab money either side of trading range. Got smashed by the crab last week!


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

I noticed it can be like that too, usually until Frankfurt opens.


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Entry Long x 2 , 2880


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Yes . Thats why i like to leave trades on over NY session. I have played with auto trailing stops before and will test with 100 trades soon. Would have put me in profit last night  but testing targets at the moment.
> Just looking at GBP USD chart now . I Call that the crab market .Moves sideways and claws grab money either side of trading range. Got smashed by the crab last week!



I played around with auto trailing stops but can only use pip size to trail on my platform which is subjective, which i don't like so don't use.


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Are you using MT4?


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Gday Will. No GBP USD for me tonight. Got GBP AUD order for short under support .
> Woke this morning to find GBP USD moved long nicely but not to my target near 1.3. then stopped out.
> No disasters as gold short saved me once again



It actually got up there not long after you left, do you log off at particular time?


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

cTrader


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Ever thought of staying until Frankfurt and London close? , as they close at same time. I'm looking at it but find it hard to tear myself away.


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

No. Need to be up at 7am to go to work so 12:00am is log off time


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

I'm going to stop trading after they close tonight, if in market and going the way I believe is the bias in the short term.


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> No. Need to be up at 7am to go to work so 12:00am is log off time



I'm shift worker so on day's off and used to the hours.
You in eastern states?
UTC+8 time zone here


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Im off for dinner .smells good


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

NSW so Sydney Time.  I thought NY recently came off daylight savings time so open was 10Pm here .Turns out NY opens at Midnight here!


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

This is handy
https://www.worldtimezone.com/forex12.php


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> I'm going to stop trading after they close tonight, if in market and going the way I believe is the bias in the short term.





willoneau said:


> I'm going to stop trading after they close tonight, if in market and going the way I believe is the bias in the short term.



As I see it there are three things when trading ,
the variables I use to enter and exit
money management / risk
and ME control
logging my trading here is helping me with my ME control so will see if I stop trading when Europe markets close.


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Exit market 2870,
20 pip loss


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Just closed 2 at BE. determined not to repeat last night when up 10% profit and ended up 2% loss. just slowing down a gear .


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Just closed 2 at BE. determined not to repeat last night when up 10% profit and ended up 2% loss. just slowing down a gear .



So are you modifying your trading plan?


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

The reason I ask is that if being up 10% and stopping out for 2% loss is all part of your trading plan it shouldn't matter and being determined not to repeat last night doesn't come into it.


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Took Several trades too close to approaching round nos. did not leave enough room for 2:1 RR ratio and left them on. so outside plan and it cost 3 xR thats 6%


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

So plan not followed and price paid in full


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

In other word taking a bit more time tonight to check trades before entry so I can stick to the plan!


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Talking about following plan , just had entry signal but beyond my risk criteria so have to let go, bummer.


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> So plan not followed and price paid in full



Correct


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Also thinking about a max daily Stop loss and maybe a Profit Stop Target test. Will try these once settled on a trading strategy, which will probably take months. My Current trading is forward testing strategies to get some numbers to improve on.


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Entry Long 2882 x 2


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Also thinking about a max daily Stop loss and maybe a Profit Stop Target test. Will try these once settled on a trading strategy, which will probably take months. My Current trading is forward testing strategies to get some numbers to improve on.



Max daily loss is good as it helps if not in sync with market and gives you chance to step back take another look
I don't like profit targets as stops the big runs when they come and they do come .One run can wipe clean series of small losses but you need to be in, so take loss and next trade please.


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Short at 2873 x 2


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Did not want to apply daily loss stop with these 100 trades as i wanted the numbers warts and all! can do that with tiny account


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Some volatility on the cable tonight!


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Long and short at moment waiting to see direction?


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

looks like support on 200ma 5min.


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> looks like support on 200ma 5min.



Time will tell


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Slippage caused my short entry to be outside my risk parameters, not happy about it but part of the game.


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Close short x 1 position
13pip loss.


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Exit short position x1,
25 pips loss


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Close long positions, 2893
11pips profit
11pips profit


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Enter short position x2 2892


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Did not want to apply daily loss stop with these 100 trades as i wanted the numbers warts and all! can do that with tiny account



If daily stop part of plan needs to be included as it affects results.


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

How are you looking at moment Triple B long or short?


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Short gold. just broke below $1200  Just looking back through stats . Seems my 3 months straight trading goldbefore these fx trades  may have been worth while. most of my profit including the last week of losses has come from Gold trades. if it was not for these my stats would be terrible and in loss overall . This is good. i like trading gold. Can maybe look at testing across multi timeframes and a few entry types. get some awesome moves too. the FX alone is just not happening for me . will post stats later in week in the 45entries thread. might even post tonight and you will see what i mean


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## willoneau (13 November 2018)

If you like gold thought about trading against currency?


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## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Yes gold is against USD .ie   XAU / USD (AU) is element symbol for Gold.
 Can also trade against AUD but I have not tried that yet. Gold moves correlated to EUR/ USD and also to GBP USD to a lesser degree. think of it as another currency . Thats really the original currency. The US FED has about 8000 ton of gold. Its their hedge against the USD tanking.
Some of my best long trades on gold are when the stock markets "correct" its almost as if it moves a day late . I have waited weeks for it to move and then BANG off it goes. It also can go on long trends for weeks to months. 
just as you are concentrating on GBP/ USD I focused on gold for the last few months.  You learn how the pair move and respect levels etc. If you concentrate on one pair you can become good at that pair I believe.


----------



## Triple B (13 November 2018)

I should add thats Spot gold Ive been trading not Futures or the physical metal


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

I like to think so too


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Close x 1 short 2897,
5.3 pips loss


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Exit market 2911
19 pips loss


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

hi guys good work please keep going i am enjoying this and although i prob can't keep your pace will endeavour to add. do you watch USDX while your trading.


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Hi andymac I only watch GBPUSD when trading it less chance of outside influences


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

I used to trade other currencies at same time but with the correlations I  found my risk was blowing out


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

currently long gbp,aud,
dixy (usdx) looks about to break down. i keep a chart always as it is basically the usd, the other side of the trade
was just reading triple above about gold and made me think about it. i trade aud,euro,gold, couple of indexes, you guys made me look at gbp last night
they all have a relationship to USDX, relationship changes now and then, but i find it gives me a good lead into many of my trades.
don't actually ever trade it, liquidity sucks, just as a lead for others


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

i agree with you about too many correlations. but my solution is to not bother with cross pairs. all i trade is vs USD or indexes.
like triple not more than 2 at a time, got this from Pete 2
so my current 2 trades are basically the same trade gbp and aud vs usd
but often, as right now, one moves and the other does not. i noticed last night gbp moving nicely as it is now. entered aud trade at same time, has gone nearly nowhere
entry 1.29031 target 29440 nearly there and stops past BE.
AUD barely above entry
update - stopped out aud, - 43pipsr
further update - re-entered AUD at.71990 after .618R


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

trading GBPUSD liquidity and volatidity is usually good when Frankfurt and London open also interesting when they overlap with US market


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

I don't trade the Asian market too wipsawie for me


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

andymac said:


> i agree with you about too many correlations. but my solution is to not bother with cross pairs. all i trade is vs USD or indexes.
> like triple not more than 2 at a time, got this from Pete 2
> so my current 2 trades are basically the same trade gbp and aud vs usd
> but often, as right now, one moves and the other does not. i noticed last night gbp moving nicely as it is now. entered aud trade at same time, has gone nearly nowhere
> ...



Entry 2903? which pair


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

closed both now as i did not like look of dxy
aud - 14
gbp plus 121


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Entry 2903? which pair





willoneau said:


> Entry 2903? which pair



gbp/usd


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> trading GBPUSD liquidity and volatidity is usually good when Frankfurt and London open also interesting when they overlap with US market



yep agree,  timing suits me too, i usually only pay attention from around 4pm till about 9 in the evening WA time


----------



## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Gday Andy . I do look at the DXY at times. however When you look at say EUR /USD  USD /JPY
GBP/USD pairs  at the same time it really tells the same story.


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

so here my chart of USDX,  you can see it was coming down and made a perfect ABC down spiking right onto %100 making A=C so this is why i bailed out on the 2 trades, i was thinking usdx may keep on going down but when it stopped right at 100 then maybe a bigger bounce upward therefore maybe gbp and aud going downward


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

hey triple, thanks i have been enjoying you two guys bantering please keep it up


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

My longer term look in GBPUSD is still short but i feel at moment can go either way.


----------



## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Looks like previous support at that level all the way over to the left. I hope it bounces so my last remaining open position short gold drops like a rock


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Enjoy the chat and also points of view while sitting in front of screen


----------



## Triple B (13 November 2018)

Will do you look at the longer timeframe chart ,say 4hr to find support ,resistance trend lines etc?


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

andymac said:


> yep agree,  timing suits me too, i usually only pay attention from around 4pm till about 9 in the evening WA time



You don't stay around for US open andymac?


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

dxy back down at lo testing 100% if it breaks it this time could go a way


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

I use the 30min chart to give me longer view but i find because of my trading time frame (5min) any further out then yesterday is heading further into crystal ball territory.


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

I don't use trend lines, can be subjective but only my opinion.


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

not too often will, sometimes if i am feeling bright but if i am a bit tired i flick it, this is hard going and if not really switched on i make even  more stuffups


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Huge spike to last weeks low and covered gap any thoughts?


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

and there is my original target hit for GBP, could almost guarantee that after i took myself out of the trade half an hour ago


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

andymac said:


> not too often will, sometimes if i am feeling bright but if i am a bit tired i flick it, this is hard going and if not really switched on i make even  more stuffups



i agree with mistakes and needing to control ME this thread is helping me control that part of my trading.


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Huge spike to last weeks low and covered gap any thoughts?



am i bit either way on all at the present moment


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

andymac said:


> and there is my original target hit for GBP, could almost guarantee that after i took myself out of the trade half an hour ago



Did you take yourself out following your plan or gut feeling?


----------



## Triple B (13 November 2018)

This is what the 4h looks like to me


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Did you take yourself out following your plan or gut feeling?



yep right question thank you- plan says if trade stops at ABC - 100% extension of leg 1 "beware" and be ready to exit - so prob did the right thing.


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

If you look back to earlier comments i was thinking 2920 and 3000 but for yesterday


----------



## andymac (13 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> This is what the 4h looks like to me
> 
> View attachment 90281



and that is why i had been paying no attention to it triple, it is just slowly winding tighter waiting.... i presume.... for for an end to brexit, but after watching you guys last night, it is actually moving quite nicely on smaller time frames


----------



## willoneau (13 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> This is what the 4h looks like to me
> 
> View attachment 90281



I would be lying if i said i didn't look at larger time frames, those triple tops are part of why I'm short bias


----------



## Triple B (14 November 2018)

15min wide view switched from 4hr and 0.500s marked


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

peter2 mentioned brexit, just not sure when it happens?


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> 15min wide view switched from 4hr and 0.500s marked
> View attachment 90282



So do you use that chart as part of your trading plan Triple B?


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> peter2 mentioned brexit, just not sure when it happens?



i don't think anyone is sure when it happens or if it happens, the deadlines seem to move regularly,


----------



## Triple B (14 November 2018)

Look at 4h first then mark it up . switch that chart to 15min and mark 0.5s then mark trend lines on 15min in different colour like this. The green horizontal line was not on my chart last night . Thats is a charting error for me. Blue arrow was counter trend entry above previous high.
I had target at 1.2990. another error due to not marking chart correctly with green hz line.
as a result trade turned over night and stop was hit just below 1.28500


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Look at 4h first then mark it up . switch that chart to 15min and mark 0.5s then mark trend lines on 15min in different colour like this. The green horizontal line was not on my chart last night . Thats is a charting error for me. Blue arrow was counter trend entry above previous high.
> I had target at 1.2900. another error due to not marking chart correctly with green hz line.
> as a result trade turned over night and stop was hit just below 1.28500
> View attachment 90283



thank you triple your good with the charting


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Thanx for your honest explanation Triple B, great to see other interpretations at play.


----------



## Triple B (14 November 2018)

Just changed the target was 1.2990 not 1.2900 as that would have been hit.
I just use what makes sense to me . Its as simple as i can make it


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

so as i am still here for the fun bit, i have long orders sitting above recent highs on AUD and on us500 as they have good setups for longs if those highs are broken, but have to watch the open whipsaw and if orders are not triggered within about 30min of open that will be my lot done


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Just changed the target was 1.2990 not 1.2900 as that would have been hit.
> I just use what makes sense to me . Its as simple as i can make it



simple always good


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Look at 4h first then mark it up . switch that chart to 15min and mark 0.5s then mark trend lines on 15min in different colour like this. The green horizontal line was not on my chart last night . Thats is a charting error for me. Blue arrow was counter trend entry above previous high.
> I had target at 1.2990. another error due to not marking chart correctly with green hz line.
> as a result trade turned over night and stop was hit just below 1.28500
> View attachment 90283



Just looking at your chart , could the high point and first point of your trend line determine the end of this move?


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> so as i am still here for the fun bit, i have long orders sitting above recent highs on AUD and on us500 as they have good setups for longs if those highs are broken, but have to watch the open whipsaw and if orders are not triggered within about 30min of open that will be my lot done



You waiting for US market to open andymac ?


----------



## Triple B (14 November 2018)

Yaeh , we always see the good ones . I reckon It helps to show the errors too. I still make too many charting errors as i have only been doing it this way for a couple weeks


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Interesting thought, read some were, after the down trend and close on lows last week expect a two day reversal before continuation to the short side?


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Entry short x 2 2954


----------



## Triple B (14 November 2018)

If you mean like this then yes for a trade over a few days. However Im looking for shorter term breakouts . so entry for me would be the break over the green hz line with tightish stop to 1.300 target at 2:1 . no more trade tonight as I have finished and off to bed . good night all


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> If you mean like this then yes for a trade over a few days. However Im looking for shorter term breakouts . so entry for me would be the break over the green hz line with tightish stop to 1.300 target at 2:1 . no more trade tonight as I have finished and off to bed . good night all
> View attachment 90284



No I meant the trend line from the major high behind your start point to your start point and transposed down like other lines.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

See ya Triple B


----------



## Triple B (14 November 2018)

I would have had that line drawn back then but deleted it when a new lower high was made.
Now I draw an uptrend line at the new high just made. Good night


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Close x 1 position 2968
14.3 pips loss


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> I would have had that line drawn back then but deleted it when a new lower high was made.
> Now I draw an uptrend line at the new high just made. Good night
> View attachment 90285



Thanx for that


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

good night triple.
yes will back for another half hour or so
aud setup long has triggered but 10 pips under at present
long setup us500 still valid but only just , could disappear before the start


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> i agree with mistakes and needing to control ME this thread is helping me control that part of my trading.



ME!!! yes i think this the whole shooting match, like a lot of people i have spent much time and effort learning all kinds of analysis tools and methods and not bothering much with ME even though the people i should have been listening too kept saying that it was the key. finally am coming to the realisation that it is


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

short x2 2957


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

I found i couldn't sit at screen and not trade especially off larger time frames, I would put trades on not following any plan. So I intentionally reduced my time frame trading strategy to suit the ME factor and allow me to increase my trading activity right or wrong time will tell.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

close x1 2965
11 pips loss


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> I found i couldn't sit at screen and not trade especially off larger time frames, I would put trades on not following any plan. So I intentionally reduced my time frame trading strategy to suit the ME factor and allow me to increase my trading activity right or wrong time will tell.



ditto - timeframes not matter for me tho. so attempting to reduce time at screen, and dramatically reduce trade selection /entry criteria, doing ok with first one , still working on second.
aud trade stopped out - 41pips
us500 not triggered setup failed
done for th evening , thanks for the company


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Exit market 2967,
9.3 pips loss
9.3 pips loss


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Sure see ya later andymac


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Entry short x2 2953


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Ok as stated earlier I said I would stop trading when Europe closed at 11:30pm, short x2 with stops so see how it turns out in the morning.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Exit market 2976,
23 pip loss
23 pip loss


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Update
8 wins
21 losses
av win 12.21
av loss7.04
av return -1.68
%return -10.04
expectancy -0.25


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Noticed my ME factor not helping and strategy not working after the 20 trading sample. So i have added a directional bias to my 30 min chart help stop my ME bias and reduce entry chop I hope. Next 20 trades please.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Also need to determine my length of trading time, so I will start my trading day at 1:30pm until 1.30am giving me two hours of the US market.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Entry short x2 2998
reduced position size to reflect losses


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

On reflection from yesterday,
early in the move when I was long I felt I needed to be long bias but I stayed short bias (ME factor), so when I became both short and long I was taken out of both positions but the ME factor (short bias) didn't allow me to take the long re-entry signal I got and so missed the large move up, fighting it with my short bias and staying out the move because no short signal generated.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Entry short x2 2998
> reduced position size to reflect losses



As a side note with new bias filter in place this trade becomes a counter trend trade.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Thanx for the feed back peter2 and Darc Knight showing you like my posting encourages me to continue to post my thoughts and trades.


----------



## peter2 (14 November 2018)

I liked that you posted your results. I don't care that you're losing at the moment. I liked that you want to monitor them as they'll provide good motivation to improve. 

I sometimes give myself two chances to get into an anticipated move, but once I've had two losses the market is telling me that I'm wrong and to get out or change my bias.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Close x1 2991
6.8 pips profit
x1 to BE (tweak)


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Entry short x2 2987


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

peter2 said:


> I liked that you posted your results. I don't care that you're losing at the moment. I liked that you want to monitor them as they'll provide good motivation to improve.
> 
> I sometimes give myself two chances to get into an anticipated move, but once I've had two losses the market is telling me that I'm wrong and to get out or change my bias.



With my account size and risk management I don't have any emotion attached to taking the signals, I just record the results and add to my sample size . Next 20 trades please


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

peter2 said:


> I liked that you posted your results. I don't care that you're losing at the moment. I liked that you want to monitor them as they'll provide good motivation to improve.
> 
> I sometimes give myself two chances to get into an anticipated move, but once I've had two losses the market is telling me that I'm wrong and to get out or change my bias.



Do you think changing your bias after two losses is good?
you could have more losses in a row as part of normal draw down but still be right in regard to your bias and plan.


----------



## peter2 (14 November 2018)

The two losses refer to each setup. Sure, it's possible that our next four setups don't work and we have a longer sequence of losses. I accept that I'm wrong most of the time before having two losses. I don't keep fighting the market bias.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Close x1 2987
3.4 pips loss


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

peter2 said:


> The two losses refer to each setup. Sure, it's possible that our next four setups don't work and we have a longer sequence of losses. I accept that I'm wrong most of the time before having two losses. I don't keep fighting the market bias.



I see, so you have two attempts at your setup or signal to take a trade then move on to next setup if not in.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

I don't think the market has a bias only our interpretation (ME factor) we place on it in relation to our time frame


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Exit short position 2991,
3.7 pips loss
7.3 pips profit


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Entry long x2 2992


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

I enjoyed watching some youtube vids of a prop firm and how they focused on trader personal management and improvement highlighting the very importance of controlling ME factor. Also trading returns were mouth watering by the way


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> I enjoyed watching some youtube vids of a prop firm and how they focused on trader personal management and improvement highlighting the very importance of controlling ME factor. Also trading returns were mouth watering by the way



They said the biggest improvement for the year was due to forcing the traders to basically fill out a score card each day after trading.
So by posting my thoughts here I too am forcing myself to be accountable .
I find it hard to write in journal as too easy to say later and no one to scrutinize it.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Exit long position x2 2992
0.1 x1 loss ( slippage on Frankfurt open should have been 4 pips profit)
0.1 x1 loss


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Entry short x2 2992


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

close x1 short 3006
13.6 pips loss

Entry long position x2 3006

close x1 short position 3009
15.7 pips loss


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Close x1 long 2996
10.2 pips loss


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Exit position 2989,
17.3 pips loss


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> They said the biggest improvement for the year was due to forcing the traders to basically fill out a score card each day after trading.
> So by posting my thoughts here I too am forcing myself to be accountable .
> I find it hard to write in journal as too easy to say later and no one to scrutinize it.



afternoon Will.
any chance you could post a link for these?


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

currently short us500 from 2716, isl 2722, target 2690
stalking a long on gold but looks more like setup will fail at this stage.

have been thinking today about some of your work last night - is great you are making me think thank you-  i need to write a better response re- overtrading so will attempt that tonight.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

After seeing volatility when market opened and the last two days have decided to drop down to 3min chart when market opens, the 5min chart is fine before the open. (5 min lagging too much)


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> afternoon Will.
> any chance you could post a link for these?



Hi andymac, I was just seaching through net looking at risk control when I came across it, so unable to link it unless I spend the time searching. I will have a look when I get chance and link if possible. (not linked here before)


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

entry long x2 2975,
close x1 long 2966,
8.6 pips loss


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

I have hoped my thread would not only make me think but be helpful in any small way to others.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> currently short us500 from 2716, isl 2722, target 2690
> stalking a long on gold but looks more like setup will fail at this stage.
> 
> have been thinking today about some of your work last night - is great you are making me think thank you-  i need to write a better response re- overtrading so will attempt that tonight.



What time frame you using to trade?


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Having a look at US500 chart, look good until market opens then volatile. Do you trade it once market open?


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

most trades 5min charts to manage the trade. i am trying to go to longer timeframes.
look at hourly or longer at start of day to find where we are
then use 15min charts to find a setup and entry
but then 5min as i watch it, drag stops along tightly behind sometimes end up on even shorter timeframes. 
too many timeframes and too shorter timeframes.
best trades are the ones where i leave an order, stop and target on a 15 minute chart, walk away and come back see the result sometime later.
as we were discussing last night, once you sit down and screen watch, you (i) can't help getting involved 
this is my ME issue which i need to manage.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> currently short us500 from 2716, isl 2722, target 2690
> stalking a long on gold but looks more like setup will fail at this stage.
> 
> have been thinking today about some of your work last night - is great you are making me think thank you-  i need to write a better response re- overtrading so will attempt that tonight.



I have been thinking about that myself and how to address it.


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Having a look at US500 chart, look good until market opens then volatile. Do you trade it once market open?



no t usually i don't like it around opening times, Us or euro opens, i prefer to leave it alone . sometimes i see a good setup with entry a fair way from the current price will leave an order and watch the open, but there is just about always a bit of whipsawing which kills short timeframe trades.
it trades quite well through asian and euro times, is always better at times like last few weeks when market volatility is up.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> most trades 5min charts to manage the trade. i am trying to go to longer timeframes.
> look at hourly or longer at start of day to find where we are
> then use 15min charts to find a setup and entry
> but then 5min as i watch it, drag stops along tightly behind sometimes end up on even shorter timeframes.
> ...



Do the walk away trades justify a system of their own? eg, are there enough trading opportunities or examples to check?


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> no t usually i don't like it around opening times, Us or euro opens, i prefer to leave it alone . sometimes i see a good setup with entry a fair way from the current price will leave an order and watch the open, but there is just about always a bit of whipsawing which kills short timeframe trades.
> it trades quite well through asian and euro times, is always beetroot at times like last few weeks when market volatility is up.



wish i had left open alone tonight too


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Do the walk away trades justify a system of their own? eg, are there enough trading opportunities or examples to check?



nope, enough trades but not good enough records to know which is what! 
so i need to proceed down your route i think, decide what trades i want to stick with and then get some discipline and a collection of data


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Ok andy I have overlayed my variables to US500 and will look for possible signals to trade until US opens later were I will stop looking for entries and only manage any open positions


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Enter x1 short position 2965


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Ok andy I have overlayed my variables to US500 and will look for possible signals to trade until US opens later were I will stop looking for entries and only manage any open positions



looking forward to your input

just closed us500 short at BE


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Enter x1 short position 2965



both long and short x1 at moment as right on 30 min bias and moving sideways.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

US500 - looking for pull back around 2720 and enter short when signal given.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Exit x1 long position 2954,
20.7 pips loss


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> looking forward to your input
> 
> just closed us500 short at BE



Did you go to BE because of plan or ME factor?


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

GBP - seeing support at 2950


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> GBP - seeing support at 2950



move to BE - GBP


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Did you go to BE because of plan or ME factor?



thankyou i had to think before answering that one  not ME, i think, but also not part of a written plan. 

disclaimer time - i am an elliot wave counter

on a 5 min chart the pattern off the low started to look like a 5 wave impulsive wave rather than a 3 wave corrective wave. which meant it was going to reach my entry point and ultimately above that so i bailed at BE before it got to my stop.
at the time this was just my Feel based on experience i suppose.
in this case it looks to be a correct feel. has saved me a loss. but raises issues

1. hard to write a "feeling" into a trade plan
2. would not have happened if i were not screenwatching


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

close position GBP x1 2965 at BE


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> thankyou i had to think before answering that one  not ME, i think, but also not part of a written plan.
> 
> disclaimer time - i am an elliot wave counter
> 
> ...



Will not hold that against you (elliot wave) ,
I am short term trend follower myself.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> thankyou i had to think before answering that one  not ME, i think, but also not part of a written plan.
> 
> disclaimer time - i am an elliot wave counter
> 
> ...



My thoughts on US500 - breakout below recent low with either continuation or false , if holds around 2720 and lowers  (pull back to catch people out possibly) also 30min bias short . Had entry signal in place but not reached


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> thankyou i had to think before answering that one  not ME, i think, but also not part of a written plan.
> 
> disclaimer time - i am an elliot wave counter
> 
> ...



I moved my GBP position to BE because of the support and long entry signal that popped up


----------



## Triple B (14 November 2018)

Good evening traders . 
Andy if you look on youtube for SMB Capital videos ,whloe lot of good vids from a real prop firm


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Entry GBP x1 long 2915


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

I like large range bar on US500 possible exhaustion possible top?


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Good evening traders .
> Andy if you look on youtube for SMB Capital videos ,whloe lot of good vids from a real prop firm



Hi triple , yes that was the vids i meant


----------



## Triple B (14 November 2018)

Looks like a top. down to 2709


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

evening triple and thank you for the vids , found them.
things got a bit jiggy there for a moment,,,,
spike on us500 got my entry order which i had oh so efficiently placed in anticipation of next leg up, bugger, will have to see how this plays,

bigger picture,  ftse mine calls it uk100, and au200 both sitting right on .62 R from last high, us has only made it down to .5,  if the lows of an hour or so ago hold tonight i am looking for couple of hundred points up on all of them


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Entry short US500 2717
Exit 2722 5.1 pips loss


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

long GBP 1.29616 stop now .29608

stop hit - 7pips


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> long GBP 1.29616 stop now .29608
> 
> stop hit - 7pips



What platform you using?


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Exit GBP 2948,
23.7 pips loss


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> What platform you using?



mt4


somebody must have said something nasty in UK. GBP fell out of the top bunk?


----------



## peter2 (14 November 2018)

You've decided to trade in a market using a very small time frame that's highly likely to be impacted by political statements at any time. You may get lucky or you may not.


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

ok that all got a bit exciting for a while had a couple of false starts but long us500 and uk100
us500 long - 2723.2  isl 2719
uk100 long - 7041 stop now 7038 and its running like it stole something, makes me think low is in.

uk is open market right now, us500 normally tracks it but will maybe be cautious until about 9.30 or 10 when us pre-open kicks in


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> long GBP 1.29616 stop now .29608
> 
> stop hit - 7pips



On my platform 29616-29608=0.8pips
ctrader


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

peter2 said:


> View attachment 90306
> 
> You've decided to trade in a market using a very small time frame that's highly likely to be impacted by political statements at any time. You may get lucky or you may not.



thank you Peter2 and hello, yes there is the news knew there must have been something.

i actually choose to ignore the news on smaller timeframes, i do not wish that to sound arrogant  i hope it doesn't
the issue i have is that whatever it is i can never tell which way it is going to push the market, and nobody else seems to be able to either, so my approach is as soon as things get a bit jiggy jiggy i know there must be something ...... so tighten stops pay close attention to the pattern, if your not sure get out,,, HOWEVER,
again this only applies if i am sitting in front of the screen, if not, i am stuffed. and as per earlier conversations i am thinking i do not want to be. not so often anyway. so maybe i need to learn a better way to deal with news too...


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> On my platform 29616-29608=0.8pips
> ctrader



stop was 08, got filled 09 according to log??


 but now i see what you mean extra decimal point on mine, i was wondering that last night.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

the allure of the screen


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> stop was 08, got filled 09 according to log??



slippage i guess


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Watching US500 making impressive higher highs higher lows on 3min time frame


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

GBP off the charts compared to last week.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Entry short US500 2724


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

peter2 said:


> View attachment 90306
> 
> You've decided to trade in a market using a very small time frame that's highly likely to be impacted by political statements at any time. You may get lucky or you may not.



I noticed the increased volatility so reduced time frame and halved position.
Be it after being spanked on open


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Side note,
reminds me when i went to casino with $100 playing $5 blackjack,
8hours later and 6 spirits went home thoroughly entertained.
now i want to learn to be the casino


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Entry long GBD 2906


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

short US500 2724.1


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Entry long GBD 2906



thats a nice entry, nice trade, want that one 2 out of 3.


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Side note,
> reminds me when i went to casino with $100 playing $5 blackjack,
> 8hours later and 6 spirits went home thoroughly entertained.
> now i want to learn to be the casino



YES...... bit close to the truth me thinks.. in my case anyway


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Yes i agree but when it's not happening it just ain't happening ,
now need to hold onto it.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

andymac said:


> YES...... bit close to the truth me thinks.. in my case anyway



 I actually stopped going once I started trading,
although it helped being 300 km away


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> I actually stopped going once I started trading,
> although it helped being 300 km away



But even those days many years ago i still went with plan , two $50 pots . After first one gone leave table have a walk around then start again with other pot , but knew i was leaving when either getting too late or no more $100.


----------



## Triple B (14 November 2018)

Im long GBP USD too at 1.29500.Short gold after short stopped at BE. Leaving both overnight as Im going to bed.Good luck Guys


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

See ya triple


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Im long GBP USD too at 1.29500.Short gold after short stopped at BE. Leaving both overnight as Im going to bed.Good luck Guys



goodnight triple


----------



## andymac (14 November 2018)

so am sitting on longs us and uk, and am not going to stay much longer. so , as i have a strong belief markets will be up tonight, just settling on stops am happy with and will leave trades overnight.


----------



## willoneau (14 November 2018)

Ok andy sounds like a plan.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

andymac said:


> so am sitting on longs us and uk, and am not going to stay much longer. so , as i have a strong belief markets will be up tonight, just settling on stops am happy with and will leave trades overnight.



How is the US 500 30min chart looking to you?


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

My thoughts , if 2730.6 holds it is possible that 2710 can be taken out?


----------



## andymac (15 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> How is the US 500 30min chart looking to you?



jus looking, good. if that hi at 2731 or so is taken out my next target is 2794 and then 2900 over next few weeks, thats a big call i know, but looks good for now.

obviously not going there in a straight line and one old high at a time, but thats where it may b going.

so just moved stop up to 2724 and thats me.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Exit US500 x2 2731.2,
6.8pips loss
7.1pips loss


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Exit GBD 2980,
57.4 pips profit


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

OK OK my results are in the toilet why i ask myself?, last week was ok results could have been better but you get that so what am i doing wrong?
Now i know
this week i have been concentrating so much on my entry that i basically stopped looking at my longer time frame price patterns which i would normal follow and using my entry / exit variables to close my positions .


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Now i will press the the restart  as i can i have magic remote,
Entry GBD long x1 2955 i then,
entry GBD long x1 2957


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Exit x1 GBP 2978,
22.8 pips profit


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

long x1 GBP 2992


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

long x1 GBP 3024


----------



## notting (15 November 2018)

Sitting on PAR. After the big deal!
You'd think if it was great for GBD it would be bad for EUR.
But then I guess when people analyse the actual deal they will make an assessment,
Then there will be the unforeseen consequences. Like people suddenly thinking OMG they are actually doing it, we thought they would wriggle out of it. *'Sell the pound'* or maybe not.
You'd think the Italian thing would be rattling the EURO a little more than it is too.
It's falling apart.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

WOW GBP what a ride , have I got a bedtime story to tell.
Where to start, after resetting my system and following my plan getting in near the higher low my first mistake was made. I only had half a position on because of earlier decision to reduce risk because of my poor performance and peter2 warning with increased volatility.
But any way my position went my way and i followed my plan closing it when indicated , my confidence was returning quickly and ME factor was starting to get involved. The chart was following my expectations and I re- entered the market with a full position as I did not have half a position to protect below. In walks Mr Revenge I started to believe I could get back to BE from the start of the week, I still followed my plan placing my stops to protect my two positions and watched the chart unfold perfectly.
Now as it moved near the top Mr greedy walked in nudging Mr Revenge why don't you add another position the market is going to blast through the high you can close position and be way in front he whispers. I added another position near top, next mistake if i still had a position down near low I wouldn't have added I would have just followed my plan and protected my risk. I left one position covered with small profit were I got back in and the other position I had been trailing my stop as per plan. Now with the latest position added three times I placed a stop and moved my other stop to were I knew they should be as per plan but ME factor was in control ( over confident) along with Mr greedy and I knew the high was going to be taken out so didn't want to be stopped out on small pull back, I was sitting on the edge of my seat ready to close my position as it would blast up to my target.
It blasted alright back down taking my stop out that I had left on because so far away and started jumping around wildly. After the shock risk management kicked in I had two positions on and one at top, now I saw that my low was in tack priced stopped and turned around right at 2920 a price I had mentioned earlier and also made double bottom. I new price could turn around just as fast and still take out the high so when it moved back above support my next mistake, I took two more positions. Now I was calm but I was not enjoying the ride I knew if it went pear shaped I would close my positions if my low was taken out I had the confidence and experience to know i would hit the close all button if i had to. Next mistake sort of price flew up to resistance I decided to take the two positions off make some profit to cover other two positions if it collapsed but before I could close the market was back to were I got in with them I place a stop to cover them but took it off as in for a penny in for a pound. So as expected I deep down I knew what was coming my low was taken out I hit the close button and was taken out of the positions, my small account instantly became half an account down but at least not out. As a trader I picked myself up and continued, I followed my plan, price had pulled back above and was setting up as a false breakout with support it closed above it gave me and entry signal which i took cautiously placing my stop below the low as per plan and went to bed my hands still shaking.

My account is small and I am prepared for it to blow up as I work through my methodology, but having skin in the game no matter how much still affects the ME factor which you cannot learn to control if only paper trading.
Oh and by the way the market did take the high out and I am still in with a nice profit 

I will attach a chart for you to see just remember this is a 3minute chart to give you some idea (was using 3min) how quickly things were moving.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

GBPUSD 3minute chart last night


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Looking for price to break above high to move my stop up


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Exit long x1 3013,
106 pips profit.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Entry US500 x1 2704.1


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

Gday Will. I tried trading the 1min charts at first . couldnt think quick enough and the spread looks real wide on Spot Gold. Then went to 5min. Much better ,some time to think and PLAN. Now using mostly 15min and somtimes 5min. things move more at my pace . cheaper too as my lot sizes are smaller,but have to wait longer for results. This means only about 2-3 trades per night on gold . so gotta make them good ones!


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

About to post my last 70 odd trades on the 45 entry strategies thread if you want a look, not a pretty sight!


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Hi triple will take a look


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Did you read my summary of last nights ride?


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

I am realizing why day trading the shorter times frames is hard , not just the volatility aspect but the constant ME factor awareness and control.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Long US 500 at moment coming off higher lows, looking to see what happens at 2720,
possible break above could indicate a new up trend.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

GBP -  waiting for a break down to around 2950 to go long again.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

My thoughts on GBP at this moment - if price bounces off around 2950 i expect high to be taken out and continuation to the long side.
If it drops back to the lows then either start of short bias or if it bounces up from there then i expect sideways consolidation and range bound for swing trading.
What I want and what i get are usually totally different but occasionally I'm pleasantly surprised when they end up being the same.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

GBD long x1 2987


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

US500 looking interesting at moment ,
possible change of trend at this point and I'm long


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

Yeah Will I read it today when I sat Down for smoko!
One of the hardest things for me still after 9 months is leaving the trade alone. 
Believe it or not , eventually you will get sick of watching the 'action"  and want to do other things. 
This can be the best thing for your trading I reckon.
Some of my best trading has been done while Im asleep!!  seriously ,  no ME factor, think about it!
!


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Exit US500 2710.3,
6.1 pips profit


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

How did you fair last night  triple?


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Triple I do have a mechanical system, I trade aussie shares with that  takes 5mins a week to implement.


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

Both gold and GBP USD got stopped out then Went on to hit Targets!!
Stops were both too tight inside bottom of trading range. Just screwing around at the moment. 
Writing rules as I think of them on whiteboard in prep for next 100 tests on Gold alone. 
Going to start a thread on Monday when I start the tests . will do a couple hours work over the weekend to prepare plan , charts and put a couple hundred $ into acc to bring it to $500


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

WoW look at GBP worse than last night at moment


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Watching GBD and glad i'm not in


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

wish i was in that!  Counter trend short trade right there. trend line under move up before drop then doji  with stop above. Brexit minister resigned!


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Long GBP 2876
close 2845 - 30pip loss ( position size had been reduced to allow for larger risk ranges)


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

I was long bias just glad i closed my position earlier


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

Just closed for profit 3.5x  R on gold . looking for short now off daily 200ma. trying to grab a few pennies before weekend so i can pay  minimum deposit into acc to get $500 for next testing period
Sorry make that off the 4hr 200ma


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> wish i was in that!  Counter trend short trade right there. trend line under move up before drop then doji  with stop above. Brexit minister resigned!



Break below higher low and bounce off support looked good long to me


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Just closed for profit 3.5x  R on gold . looking for short now off daily 200ma. trying to grab a few pennies before weekend so i can pay  minimum deposit into acc to get $500 for next testing period



Seems like gold is your thing triple


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Long GBP - 2820
close - 2796, 24pips loss.


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

Man that is a massive red candle on the 4hr chart


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

you are a brave man Will


----------



## notting (15 November 2018)

This is actually the best thing.
The deal is absolute crap for the UK.
There is now no way it's getting through the house of commons.
May will have to resign and the people will have to vote on this crap exit hopefully this time they will vote with a half a brain.
The only damage is political.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> you are a brave man Will



The low was taken out so i'm not long bias any more, need a reason to choose direction and when that choice is wrong .Now if i can make that decision sooner i might just get on some of these moves.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Long GBP - 2768


----------



## andymac (15 November 2018)

evening Will and Triple.
late start catching up on reading, enjoyed your summary of your evening Will.
just reading through your posts from after i left last night, must be noted how much your results improved after i left!!!
did get just a bit ridiculous there for a while, at least it did for me. but sometimes is good to cut loose, even if only to remind myself what i should not be doing


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Long US500 - 2701


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Hi andy , glad you enjoyed the bedtime story .
I hated the ride not enjoyable at all , has been worse today if your long bias anyway.


----------



## andymac (15 November 2018)

my open trades from last night
us500 long2723.2, stopped out 2724
uk 100 long7041.7 stopped out 7091.2

but i did jump the gun on the "low is in" way too easily.  upward bias???


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

I


Triple B said:


> wish i was in that!  Counter trend short trade right there. trend line under move up before drop then doji  with stop above. Brexit minister resigned!



 wish i was too Triple


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

andymac said:


> my open trades from last night
> us500 long2723.2, stopped out 2724
> uk 100 long7041.7 stopped out 7091.2
> 
> but i did jump the gun on the "low is in" way too easily.  upward bias???



I had small trade earlier in US500 and long at moment , wondering if we are going to see it turn around now or continue down.


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

notting said:


> The only damage is political.



Also if you were silly enough to be long GBP without a Stop!


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

closed GBP - 2772,
4pips profit.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Also if you were silly enough to be long GBP without a Stop!



Pick me , pick me


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

Yeah but your smart enough to have a stop (mental or actual)!. Can you believe some people dont!


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

That is when accounts blow up and end of game. My stop was a price i knew i was wrong , be it not to my liking. If we do the things we don't like to but know we should do anyway eventually i think we have less things that we have to do we don't like.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Andy US500 is looking interesting  , lets see if recent high is taken out . It will add confirmation to the up trend and also a higher low if it happens. The high at 2722 is significant for me


----------



## andymac (15 November 2018)

am long us500 @2701.7 but going very slowly now

my expectation is still same as last night, although us500 broke to new lo it has stopped right at .62r now, same as uk100 was last night. uk 100 did not break to new lo today although it did retrace almost right back to the bottom.
starting to move as i type

had little gold short earlier. stopped it out at -4pips. was not a plan trade was a i know what is going on and i want to be involved trade.
us500 trade is as per trading plan, although i did enter it on a 1m chart which is ridiculous. 
tonights mission is to really start to tie down what are the trades i want to be doing,,,
and to not overly clutter your thread


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

good idea to put an actual stop in place. if not at the actual price not too far from it.
if your internet goes down or computer crashes you may be getting an email for a margin call.
If I put a stop or limit order on I always have a stop in place when i hit submit.
If I put an at market order I immediately drag a stop in place. I am going to look for an ea that automatically places a stop when an at market order is placed.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> That is when accounts blow up and end of game. My stop was a price i knew i was wrong , be it not to my liking. If we do the things we don't like to but know we should do anyway eventually i think we have less things that we have to do we don't like.



The stop i refused to put in last night was the first indication things were up before it got messy.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

andymac said:


> am long us500 @2701.7 but going very slowly now
> 
> my expectation is still same as last night, although us500 broke to new lo it has stopped right at .62r now, same as uk100 was last night. uk 100 did not break to new lo today although it did retrace almost right back to the bottom.
> starting to move as i type



 Me too 2701.2


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

I watched one of the SMB capital videos the other night.
Mike Bellafiore said rule #1 of trading .....always use a stop  Rule #2 in Trading always use a stop rule no#3 always use ...............


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

andymac said:


> am long us500 @2701.7 but going very slowly now
> 
> my expectation is still same as last night, although us500 broke to new lo it has stopped right at .62r now, same as uk100 was last night. uk 100 did not break to new lo today although it did retrace almost right back to the bottom.
> starting to move as i type
> ...



I am trading the US500 with the 3min chart and finding it good for trailing stop


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

You got me looking at US500 andy and while GBD is so volatile not a bad place to trade.


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

Yes i like them for overnight trades. Just need to remember to leave computer on with MT4. Otherwise might cost you a 8xR winning Trade on Gold one night! Doh


----------



## andymac (15 November 2018)

us500 stop is at BE now,, and getting hassled but for me if it can't hold here trade is wrong , so out.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Yes i like them for overnight trades. Just need to remember to leave computer on with MT4. Otherwise might cost you a 8xR winning Trade on Gold one night! Doh



No sure why you need to leave PC on ?


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

What time is it in Bunbury Will. 7:40pm?  No Daylight savings in WA?


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

On MT4 if you dont leave the pc on the auto trailing stop dont work!


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

So you go to bed 3xR up and set up the trailing stop. Turn the laptop off and go to bed . trade plummets in the correct direction and reverses all the way back to your stop . you pull out 3x R win when it should have been about 10-11 x Rwin. NOTHappy


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> On MT4 if you dont leave the pc on the auto trailing stop dont work!



I thought that might be it as i have that function too , Yes 7:46pm now we keep voting daylite saving down here


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> So you go to bed 3xR up and set up the trailing stop. Turn the laptop off and go to bed . trade plummets in the correct direction and reverses all the way back to your stop . you pull out 3x R win when it should have been about 10-11 x Rwin. NOTHappy



I have found that too , not sure how to over come it though?


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Closed US500 - 2701.8 ,
0.6 pips profit


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> On MT4 if you dont leave the pc on the auto trailing stop dont work!



ctrader has auto trail stop you can leave while PC off but it a set pip size


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Entry US500 - 2704.4


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

Yep they are all set pip size I believe . I use 150 points on gold or $1.50 equivalent to 15 pips. I use that size as bounces off insignifcant round nos ie $1204.00 are usually less than $1.50 if move is strong in one direction


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Close US500 - 2703.6,
0.8 pips loss


----------



## andymac (15 November 2018)

same -1pip


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Enter US 500 2707.2 , 
this is hard work at moment


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

LOL Im bored out of my mind . only 3 Trades tonight 1BE  1x 3.5x R win and now in a BE . This is how I like it. Watching you tube vids. Checking the freshly painted pool , posting crap on ASF.Waiting for NY open so I can hopefully move my Stop


----------



## Triple B (15 November 2018)

Wow been some volatility in the 500 last week or 2


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Yes chatting to you guy's helps me while i watch charts.


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

andy i'm not liking US500 at moment if doesn't stay above 2700


----------



## willoneau (15 November 2018)

Quick note , i have been making a few cautious trades long back up to 2850, then went short at 2795 
looking to see if it breaks Mondays low or bounces at 2750.


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

Better hang on Will. Could be a bumpy Ride


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

nah me neither,
fckn slo nite


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)




----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Exit GBD 2783  ,
12.1 pips profit


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

which way?


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Watching US500 if drops below 2692 low expect to take out 2685 and go to at least 2680 and continuation down?
If that happens i don't expect support until 2660


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

longGBP 1.27945

out bad trade (plan) - 69 pips thats -minus
long again - .27882

getting jiggy again stopsBE


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

4hr chart says downtrend


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Short US500 - 2693.8


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Short GBP - 2784.5


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> 4hr chart says downtrend



The GBP 4hr chart?


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

GBP - the volility too large for 4hr i'm using 1 min even 30min too much lag


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Exit GBP 2866 ,
24.1 pips loss (including 4pips of slippage)


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Exit US500 2697.4,
3.6 pips loss


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Uncertainty forming now in US500 ,
higher lows and lower highs need to wait , also called wedge or flag


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

Watchin 4 charts . XAU/USD SP500 GBP USD and EUR GBP


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

exit 27939  plus 57pip


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

AKA the squeeze


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

No SP 500 4hr


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

Looks to me like 4hr heading for double bottom sp500. dont let me sway you Will.Trade your own plan


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Andy what do you think about US500?


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Looks to me like 4hr heading for double bottom sp500. dont let me sway you Will.Trade your own plan



triple i think at the moment the squeeze could go either way but i think because we are in a ranging down trend that it will break to the short   ( agreeing with possible double bottom) but i think lower myself.
Also resistance at 2700


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Short order sitting below higher low at moment


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

Im off to bed. Leaving current gold trade on . either BE or 4xR win .so min winning night 3.5xR
Only 3 trades , controlled myself
Goodnight traders . Good luck in the chaos


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

i have an order to buy at 2708, don't really like trying to trade pre open, just sit . if order gets hit good.

but i could see it going down just as easy, double bottom i have also as a possibility


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

andy not on shame i would have liked to know his thoughts as it is unfolding


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

well done on the control , good evening


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

sorry andy thought you not here


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

see ya triple


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

Yes . good thinking on the order below. have you got the patience to let it get filled?
enjoy


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

I can see why 2708 andy confirmation of upward trend if reached


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Entry short US500 2694.1


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Yes . good thinking on the order below. have you got the patience to let it get filled?
> enjoy



just did


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> sorry andy thought you not here



sorry over the other side of the pit    stalking a gold long trade, but not yet


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

US500 broken down waiting to see if can be sustained or stalls and turns into false break?


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Staying out of GBP now looks range bound.


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

is just waiting i think...... but i also think it will move significantly sometime tonight

us500


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Staying out of GBP now looks range bound.



just until the next brexit titbit


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Back to work tomorrow so no late night for me tonight.


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Finally able to tighten my stop on US500


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

2680 here we come,
moved to BE


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

you watching US500 andy


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

might bounce here at 2680 but i wouldn't go long.
target 2660.


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Waiting for place to lower my stop, will be the bounce if it breaks through 2680


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> might bounce here at 2680 but i wouldn't go long.
> target 2660.



yep could go down lots now,
just watching th open  nearly done


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

possible short entry right now?
but were to put stop?
watching the open right now glad i'm BE


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Exit US500 2688.1,
6pips profit.


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> possible short entry right now?
> but were to put stop?
> watching the open right now glad i'm BE



kinda thought it wanted down , but not sure now


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

ok andy i'm off to bed catch tomorrow night for a few more trades


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

After last night i made sure i had my stop in.


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> After last night i made sure i had my stop in.



cheers me too


----------



## sasch (16 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> After last night i made sure i had my stop in.




Enjoying the thread guys.

Willoneau, have you ever considered hedging the same instrument instead of using a stop?

Sometimes this is a good strategy for high volatility, you don't even have to worry about which direction
to trade, just choose support and resistance levels. Be careful when deciding to roll off one leg, such as that massive 4 hr down bar lol. I should also note that you should check that your broker supports this before trying it - demo is your friend. They can also widen spreads sometimes during periods of low liquidity.

Alternatively, you could also try straddling the GBP/USD when it is trading in a tight trading range, waiting for an explosive move either way. The possible downside - potentially the trade could whipsaw both ways, taking out both stops in some news events.


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

sasch said:


> Enjoying the thread guys.
> 
> Willoneau, have you ever considered hedging the same instrument instead of using a stop?
> 
> ...



Hi Sach , thanx for the comments
that 4hr bar you talk about actually only took a few minutes to form, was very fast moving.
I trade in a short time frame were I have a setup get my entry and hit the trade, manage my risk then get out. It can be over in minutes were I move on to my next setup , keeping it as simple as possible for me helps me take my setups when they arrive without second guessing and delaying. Just take the trade manage the risk close the position next trade please.


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Correct me if I'm wrong , hedging is the process of buying one (example) currency and selling another currency that moves in the opposite direction?


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

I did try hedging GDB once all I did was lock in my loss
the straddle you talk about I do use sometimes but my interpretation is I place an entry order just outside the range on either side and take one off when the other is triggered.


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

How goes it Guys? Just went L>O>N>G Gold.  Classic ascending triangle with lots of juicy short seller stops above I hope


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> How goes it Guys? Just went L>O>N>G Gold.  Classic ascending triangle with lots of juicy short seller stops above I hope



with you
i hope your correct


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

At work at moment looking forward to seeing how it is going when I get home


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Andy I had a bit of a ahh moment last night after trading when I thought about the trading session


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Like to know my thoughts?


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> At work at moment looking forward to seeing how it is going when I get home



have not been at work today.. spent just about the whole day reading ,researching and trying to evolve my trading plan into a workable beast.
normally don't trade friday as usually slowest day of the week and also quite often a friday beer gets preference, then i definitely don't trade.
but as i have a few new things to try out and gold presented a grabbed a tiny lot.
i think today may be the last day of what has now been a 2week "off the chain" experiment.


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Like to know my thoughts?



please


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Ok here goes ,
I noticed there was a few minutes and a little banter when we both entered and exited some trades around same prices, which I didn't think much about at the time.
We both had different strategies and probable different time frames. This resonated in me when I thought about market wizards and Jack Schwager saying about getting a room full of super traders in a room all having different systems but having something in common , not saying we are super traders but made me think about what we had in common.
I realized we both were managing our risk which I now believe is the most important part of trading, there are other things that are important to know too but not as important.
Side note , I blew half my account up because I stopped managing my risk.


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Ok here goes ,
> I noticed there was a few minutes and a little banter when we both entered and exited some trades around same prices, which I didn't think much about at the time.
> We both had different strategies and probable different time frames. This resonated in me when I thought about market wizards and Jack Schwager saying about getting a room full of super traders in a room all having different systems but having something in common , not saying we are super traders but made me think about what we had in common.
> I realized we both were managing our risk which I now believe is the most important part of trading, there are other thing that are important to know too but not as important.
> Side note , I blew half my account up because I stopped managing my risk.




yesss will i agree 100% on risk but also on the same trades/different systems thing.
actually touched briefly on this with Peter2 a couple of weeks ago. i have had this experience a few times , my conclusion is that all,, maybe a lot anyway,  of TA is the same.
what i mean is that of the countless different TA methods, systems,indicators ,philosophies etc, etc, it does not matter so much what method you use. a trader ends up being drawn to a method that sits well with that trader. but no one method is any better than another, any method used competently can bring results.
the proof , if you like, is that 2 traders with 2 methods often end up in the same trades.

as to whether those 2 traders are using their methods "competently" is probably still wide open to debate.


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

out of that gold trade triple, this is where i find gold frustrating. it can have false breaks one after the other, more than most, but then the one that goes can keep going such a long way you just want to be there.


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

so GBP has spent all day completing (yet to be confirmed) a perfect ABC where A=C pullback up from yesterdays low.
so i now have a sell order just under yesterday lo and we see if the downtrend continues.


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

andymac said:


> yesss will i agree 100% on risk but also on the same trades/different systems thing.
> actually touched briefly on this with Peter2 a couple of weeks ago. i have had this experience a few times , my conclusion is that all,, maybe a lot anyway,  of TA is the same.
> what i mean is that of the countless different TA methods, systems,indicators ,philosophies etc, etc, it does not matter so much what method you use. a trader ends up being drawn to a method that sits well with that trader. but no one method is any better than another, any method used competently can bring results.
> the proof , if you like, is that 2 traders with 2 methods often end up in the same trades.
> ...



My point too , the answer then if two consistently profitable traders with different styles make money .The only common thread is managing risk which makes them the same but different from the rest of the traders.


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

itching to get home now , still have 1.5 hours to go


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

Yes false break outs suck  .Would have 90% win rate if it wasnt for themIm still in with stop below 1214 which is previous Resistance on 4 hour chart.
This may be an overnight job. Need NY vol to move it up. also high vol at NY close helps as swing traders close positions for the weekend.


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Yes false break outs suck  .Would have 90% win raet if it wasnt for themIm still in with stop below 1214 which is previous Resistance on 4 hour chart.
> This may be an overnight job. Need NY vol to move it up. also high vol at NY close helps as swing traders close positions for the weekend.



What would be the win rate using false breakout method?


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

I do look for a false break out but usually in a pull back and continuation of main trend.


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

Dont know will but I might keep track of the false ones in the next 100 tests starting Monday


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

Volume picking back up . Might be buyers waking up!


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

volume decreased on down bars may indicate supply diminishing .  going to post a chart on my other thread to show peter and others the spread.


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

You could , for example have a long bias then a two leg pull back which is sort of false break , then a higher low entry. Is it greater than 50% successful , I don't know but if it was 51 % successful I would take it every time.


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

will, work must be slow!!!!! i just had a look round and you have been everywhere this arvo passing on advice
i have the fish please.


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Hope i wasn't too over the top andy


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

OK waiting on a long entry on GBP


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

andymac said:


> will, work must be slow!!!!! i just had a look round and you have been everywhere this arvo passing on advice
> i have the fish please.



For someone  who has been here since 2013 not the right question i think


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

US500 looking long bias now but not sure were to enter
bounce around 2700 would be good start.


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Hope i wasn't too over the top andy



no i don't think so just having a chuckle


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Gosh just had a look at GBP 3min chart not a pretty sight


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

andymac said:


> no i don't think so just having a chuckle



Got to be fun or what's the point


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Watching US500 breaking down to 2700 now


----------



## andymac (16 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Gosh just had a look at GBP 3min chart not a pretty sight



yep friday slow and directionless mostly , really don't think is worth being here


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

GBP has a squeeze on as triple would say
just looked also squeeze on 4hr chart.
so my continuation play would be back to 3000 as part of the continued squeeze.


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

long GBP 2810.7
stopped 12.7 pips loss


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Entry short US500


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

re enter GBP 2804.3
should have waited for false break , if it is that will see


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Andy after that perfect trade on US500 at open that wasn't i'm going to remove half my position at target.


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

ok GBP breakout confirmed for me
target exit 2832


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

close US500 
4.8 pips loss


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

this coulbe a good one will . just close your eyes for 10mins


----------



## sasch (16 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong , hedging is the process of buying one (example) currency and selling another currency that moves in the opposite direction?



Using two correlated currencies is probably the most common way of hedging. However, I prefer direct hedging - using one currency, although many people seem to be against it, I find it quite intuitive and it suits my trading style.



willoneau said:


> I did try hedging GDB once all I did was lock in my loss
> the straddle you talk about I do use sometimes but my interpretation is I place an entry order just outside the range on either side and take one off when the other is triggered.




You have to have a clear strategy going in, otherwise you can get tangled up in messy trades. That is why it is good to test it out on a demo or use micro/nano lots.

If you hedge 1:1, you will carry the loss all the way down one leg. However, if there is strong momentum you could partially close the losing side, and continue on full size with the winning position.

Or you could hold 1:1 all the way down/up until it hits an important  level, combined with a price signal bar. Sell out the winning position, reduce the losing side by half (or leave the original order intact) and let it wind back. Placing a pending order/hedge further away if it continues to move down.

These are just some ideas. There are so many strategies that you can use.

I usually use a bot to open both trades simultaneously to minimise slippage.

The trades need to be on a time frame that overcomes the extra brokerage/commission costs. The profits tend to be a lot smaller than regular trading, as you are generally making profit on the net difference, rather than accelerating returns. However, the draw down tends to be a lot less as well, and leads to consistent returns.

The Straddle you are referring to is the one I meant. Sometimes, both sides can be taken out before there is time to remove one side manually. Although, you have just given me an idea. It should be easy to remove one pending order when the other is triggered using a bot.


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Long US500 2721.1
stopped 2718.5 2.6 pips loss


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

sasch said:


> Using two correlated currencies is probably the most common way of hedging. However, I prefer direct hedging - using one currency, although many people seem to be against it, I find it quite intuitive and it suits my trading style.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Will have to take a look when i can and see if i can get my head around it.
the consistant returns caught my eye.


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

GBP looks at apex of squeeze at moment


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

Bouncing along 5min 200 ma


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

well i waited longer than 10 mins close GBP BE


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

just one more minute


----------



## Triple B (16 November 2018)

lol im long now gbp


----------



## willoneau (16 November 2018)

Ok struggling to keep my eyes open , enough trading i'm out of here seeya triple , andy.


----------



## Triple B (17 November 2018)

Ok , just when the fun starts . good night Will


----------



## Triple B (17 November 2018)

Only 9pm over in Bunbury . Will must be knackered.  I often have a little nap while trading! just need a better office chair .  reclining one would be nice


----------



## willoneau (17 November 2018)

Yes I noticed I made a couple of errors with moving my stops too close , realizing I wasn't being patient because being up so early with work and becoming tired. I also jumped in twice too early because not patient.


----------



## willoneau (19 November 2018)

Knowing when not to trade is a strategy I'm working on too.


----------



## Triple B (19 November 2018)

Will must be busting his hump at work!


----------



## willoneau (19 November 2018)

Hi triple , just got up last night shift tonight.


----------



## Triple B (19 November 2018)

Have fun Will


----------



## willoneau (19 November 2018)

Long GBP 2833


----------



## Triple B (19 November 2018)

Not even night shift can stop this man


----------



## willoneau (19 November 2018)

I have two hours before i have to get ready for work. I'm taking a leaf out of your book and putting targets into my trading plan as i have notice that alot of my entries can do well then turn around.


----------



## Triple B (19 November 2018)

Might not hear from andy tonight. Hes starting his strategy testing tonight so prob 100% focus.


----------



## willoneau (19 November 2018)

Hope all goes well for him


----------



## willoneau (19 November 2018)

Higher low possibly forming so tighten stop , resistance at 2840.


----------



## willoneau (19 November 2018)

Exit 2844 ,
10.3 pips loss.


----------



## willoneau (19 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> Long GBP 2833



Ops was short not long 2833,
short bias at moment.


----------



## Triple B (19 November 2018)

You on 5min charts will?


----------



## Triple B (19 November 2018)

Fair bit of movement for a Monday


----------



## willoneau (19 November 2018)

3min and half hour , although I had to drop to 2 min when GBP was so volatile last week. Not a lot of difference as pivot points usually the same.


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

Afternoon everyone , andy and triple , just went short x2 GBP 2850.
1x target 2R


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

Moved down on open watching for false move after squeeze.


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

Pull back after open as expected stop still holding.


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

Stop entry under recent low US500, if price breaks recent high will look for breakout reversal to go short.


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

Exit GBP x2 2868.
34pips loss


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

Entry US500 x2 short 2683


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

Stand aside on GBP until short bias confirmed.


----------



## Triple B (20 November 2018)

Got the night off Will?


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

Finished this morning


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

Entry short x2 GBP 2863,


----------



## Triple B (20 November 2018)

Are you logging youre trades Will or just trying this and that for now


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

logging my trades triple


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

was chatting to andy wondering were to log XAU and US500 ?


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> Are you logging youre trades Will or just trying this and that for now



Logging them this week as the week (while off ) will be my sample size x3 as I'll also be trading XAU and US500


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

Waiting for lower high confirmation to lower stop.


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

What to do? plan was to lower stop on remaining position when target reached , touched but not closed so do i still move my stop to BE or wait?


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

willoneau said:


> What to do? plan was to lower stop on remaining position when target reached , touched but not closed so do i still move my stop to BE or wait?



decided to move stop to BE as I can re-enter up around same prices if entry indicated.


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

Exit BE.


----------



## willoneau (20 November 2018)

Longer time frame going sideways but if lower high forms possible short entry.


----------



## willoneau (21 November 2018)

I will stop using pips as profit or loss because XAU pips is in 100's which doesn't correlate with GBP and US500 xR is better  (R=risk= entry minus stop).


----------



## willoneau (21 November 2018)

Once  I'm in profit I move my stop to BE, I use price structure usually to determine if showing signs of weakness or strength to move my stop. I can always look to re-enter around my original entry if setup still there or even get in at a better price.


----------



## willoneau (21 November 2018)

Review last night stats,
20 trades , 9 wins 11 losses = 45%
avg win= 11.32
avg loss= 8.33
pay off ratio= 1.36
expectancy= 0.06
profit factor= 1.11
% return on a/c= 4.11


----------



## willoneau (21 November 2018)

I need to look at the amount of trades and either improve my win rate or pay off ratio. Although when i think about it 20 trades over three instruments is not that many.


----------



## Triple B (21 November 2018)

I would say win% this should reduce drawdown. ie at 45%win rate the chance of 10losers in a row out of 50 trades is 4.7%           at  55%win  chance of 10  losers in a row from 50 trades is 0.8%
At 50% win  chance of 10  losers in a row is 2%


----------



## andymac (21 November 2018)

evening gents just in. going to get my self sorted fro half hour and will catch you then, read you pre- start post triple , i need to do the same i think.


----------



## willoneau (21 November 2018)

Triple B said:


> I would say win% this should reduce drawdown. ie at 45%win rate the chance of 10losers in a row out of 50 trades is 4.7%           at  55%win  chance of 10  losers in a row from 50 trades is 0.8%
> At 50% win  chance of 10  losers in a row is 2%



I am tending to lean that way too triple , I have not been in such a rush to move my stops up especially when the markets opened like yesterday .


----------



## MARKETWINNER (13 April 2019)

https://www.poundsterlingforecast.c...-economic-data-on-the-pound-vs-the-us-dollar/
US dollar Forecast and the impact of next week’s economic data on the pound vs the US dollar


----------



## cogs (17 April 2019)

Now that Brexit has (maybe, just maybe) been postponed for a few months there could be some opportunities in pound pairs, he says cautiously.


----------



## willoneau (11 May 2019)

Hi cogs , after looking at my intra-day trading over that period and weighing up the amount of time I spent at the screen, at all hours with very little gain .Actually I was going backwards very slowly I decided to stop trading intra-day. I am currently forward testing a daily FX system on sim and hoping to go live in new tax year.


----------



## cogs (13 May 2019)

Hi will,
I can understand, trading fx pairs tend to sucker traders in to over indulging in screen time.
Can you share any of how you are testing on sim?


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

go look at no nonsense fx a lot of work if prepared to do it.
i use pepperstone which have sim accounts you can use untill ready to trade live to try out any system or methodology you have.


----------



## cogs (13 May 2019)

Oh, you mean demo accounts?

Yes I have listened to some of his videos and he states some valid points, and shares some useful information. As he also mentions his method requires a minimum starting balance of $100k which threw me off. He can't be too confident in his own methods to have such a large buffer zone, albeit that was to trade full time.

I must say any clown can be successful with a starting balance of that size.
To challenge my experience and understanding I have gathered over the years I have started another live account with a balance of $20, yes 20. To prove to myself the validity of my methods and knowledge. 
All that changes from small balance to larger balance is 'time spent in each trade'. Price movements are the same throughout time frames, just the monetary value changes.

Anyways he has some good guidance for those discovering at that level.


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

cogs said:


> Oh, you mean demo accounts?
> 
> Yes I have listened to some of his videos and he states some valid points, and shares some useful information. As he also mentions his method requires a minimum starting balance of $100k which threw me off. He can't be too confident in his own methods to have such a large buffer zone, albeit that was to trade full time.
> 
> ...



Are you sure you read it right ? I think he was talking that sort of capital to actually make a living and was low anyway. A 30% return on $100,000  is only $30,000 can you live off that?


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

I have been demoing since 11/3/19 as of today i'm up almost 38% but still not ready to actually trade it live.


----------



## cogs (13 May 2019)

I started watching his videos from the beginning, then he got to, yes 'how much to trade for a living' otherwise don't bother, sort of wording. So all his methodology is applied to that start balance which is only a small portion of actual retail traders. I work and trade.
Don't get me wrong in my comments, he has many valid points and I would suggest any FX trader to watch his work and pick up some pointers.
In the scheme of successful methods and traders, he is apparently just another, although I hadn't seen him trade all his positions live, and show track record.
The thing about FX is there are several successful methods that work and a gazillion that don't, his is apparently one that does and many willing to share have some degree of success, hence they share.

Anyway sounds like you are heading down the right path for you, 38% in a couple of months is very good! Well done.
Basically in my experience, if you can beat inflation you are doing it right.
IMO, I would suggest not trading demo for too long, live is different, as you may well already know. Microlots and limited exposure to make sure your emotions are involved. It sure tests us out.


----------



## willoneau (13 May 2019)

I work and trade also, but to lose interest after being given the facts about needing so much to actually make a living trading Fx only (no other income ) is a shame because there is so much more. But a lot of work for anyone who really wants to be profitable trading FX.


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## Triple B (13 May 2019)

I think VP NNFX suggests $300,000 to be a professional. ie your main  income.  At 20% profit per year average that is $60000 pa. That does not mean you need that much to trade. My plan is to deposit $10000 per year for the next 10years . And have a balance of $300,000 to trade with then . i will be 55 years old then and should have the house paid off. So far indicators showing promise are :  SSL,, Flat trend with MACD,, Awsome Oscillator.
If you think you can take $10000 and live off that at $60000 pa you may be dissapointed.


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## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Hi Triple B i'm glad you found NNFX as i did, that is why i stopped my trading thread to concentrate on learning a better way to trade FX.


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## cogs (14 May 2019)

It is nice nice goal you have Triple B. How long have you been educating yourself in FX?

There is so much fact and fiction out there. I think it is one of the most enticing but misleading businesses around. Some of the most pertinent points VP NNFX mentions I think are using Daily charts and not following the heard, https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment etc. although these are even delayed and not always accurate at any given point in time, this is where the 'fat account' with a 'buffer' comes in.

Etienne has had some interesting interviews:  with Chris from Pepper and this one
 with Scott Phillips who has had an interesting life and is now in a great place.

Willoneau - have you had any positions on GBPUSD this week?


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## willoneau (14 May 2019)

Hi cocs, my system doesn't trade any USD currencies.


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## Triple B (15 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Hi Triple B i'm glad you found NNFX as i did,



Hi Will.  I think I suggested  nnfx in the chaos thread? 
cogs . i "traded"(sic) xau/usd for 1 year and lost a few  thousand $. March - march
I wanted to try for 1 year and see how I went . 
Now developing a strategy for fx only with help from nnfx. lots of work but the goal is 20mins trading time in the AM . 20% average return pa.
Been at the fx solid since about beginning April 19  
I still want to trade XAU  . 
Would like to do this at night for a "pocket money account"  try to generate extra play $ with a say $ 5000 account . Intra day and trend


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## willoneau (15 May 2019)

Hi Triple B, i didn't read it but doesn't matter. I found NNFX about the time i stopped posting when we were intra-day trading to also focus on learning his way.
I have all the currencies except any with US dollar.


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## willoneau (15 May 2019)

Are you trading the NNFX way? live or in demo Triple B
Live demo account running, starting capital $10,000.
First trade 11/3/19 and balance of today including open positions $14,367 at this moment in time( yesterday was just over $15,000).


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## Triple B (16 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Are you trading the NNFX way? live or in demo Triple B
> Live demo account running, starting capital $10,000.
> First trade 11/3/19 and balance of today including open positions $14,367 at this moment in time( yesterday was just over $15,000).



Looks promising Will
Im still backtesting. Making progress and getting more consistent results . I was getting some wild fluctuations on different pairs with previous indies.  
Still got plenty of work to go but I reckon Demo is still about a month away.
Im testing 2014-2018  on all pairs with the final algo. Thats about a weeks work in itself. After my real job!


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## willoneau (16 May 2019)

Sounds like your putting in more work than i did back testing
Why do you need to back test all 27?


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## cogs (17 May 2019)

Bit of a nasty squeeze in GBPUSD. Text book algo though, so when they switch it will stand out like a sore toe.



Using Davits pivots from FF.



As long as these long positions keep building they will keep pushing it down, maybe to a climactic stop run and pop!


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## Triple B (17 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Why do you need to back test all 27?



1. because I can
2. So I can see if there are pairs that seem to have better returns with my algo.
possibly leaving out some for trading or trading the better pair if one currency has multiple trades
3. So I can estimate drawdowns and returns expected.When I see a drawdown within expected levels , I can stick with the plan ie Confidence
4. After a year I can review and see if the backtesting was giving  reasonable results compared to forward results.
5. So I can compare completed algos to one another . 
I also intend to forward test 3 or 4 algos  together once I have a few to choose from


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## cogs (18 May 2019)

I discovered a long time ago with coding and testing my EA's that if an EA is profitable on only one pair, or only profitable on ranging pairs, like what NNFX suggests 'as best pairs to trade', will eventually fail.
Rationale - at any given stage (or period) a ranging pair can behave just like a non-ranging pair, hence your system fails.
I like a lot of what NNFX has to say, but like I mentioned it suits his views and the goal of trading for a living.
Pairs like audnzd, eurbgp, audcad, eurchf etc eventually change range. They lull traders into a false sense of security.

I agree with your testing method Triple B across more pairs, it reduces the number of erroneous trades, drawdown etc. but increases potential profitability outcome.


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## willoneau (13 April 2020)

Ok I am back trading FX, after the corona virus market crash and my stock system going to cash I have decided to once again look at FX. I have spent the last few weeks putting together and testing a Strategy to trade the currency markets.


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## willoneau (13 April 2020)

I am demo trading it at moment with the intention to go live once account doubles.
I use 30min time frame for my setup and entry and daily time frame to determine trend direction.
Since I am a shift worker I have had to serious look at the way I am trading as the lower time frames I traded before was very hard


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## willoneau (13 April 2020)

Since I live in WA my trading day starts after 10am, I then look at setups.
 Once in a trade I scale out half my position at 2R then move my stop to BE.
This covers my Risk and helps nullify the trades were my initial stop is taken out for a loss.


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## noirua (14 April 2020)

TIPS versus Bonds:
*Treasury Inflation Protected Securities*
*https://www.thebalance.com/what-are-treasury-inflation-protected-securities-3306098*
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tips.asp

*A boring world to hold USDs but one worth looking at for those with a chunk of cash with no home at present.*


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## willoneau (14 April 2020)

noirua said:


> TIPS versus Bonds:
> *Treasury Inflation Protected Securities*
> *https://www.thebalance.com/what-are-treasury-inflation-protected-securities-3306098*
> 
> *A boring world to hold USDs but one worth looking at for those with a chunk of cash with no home at present.*



Waiting for system to give signals again at this stage thanx.


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## willoneau (14 April 2020)

Starting Capital $10,000 have positions on at moment and will update when at home.


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