# SFG - Seafarms Group



## Love Zn (8 May 2007)

I don't know very much about them.  I notice they were recommended in the last Smart Inverstor magazine.

Looking at the chart they had a big jump in early Feb and are now up and down, not knowing what to do.  There is a lot of hype around for CO2 trading, but it doesn't have the same impact as mentioning Uranium.

Personally I think CO2 trading has huge potential, but Australia seems slow on the up take.  Doing some research on the company I came across a submission they did for Task Group on Emission Trading, which I believe is due to report at the end of May. http://www.pmc.gov.au/emissionstrading/submissions/43_sub_emissionstrading.pdf

I found it interesting reading giving, information about the company and their views on CO2 trading.

Just wondering what others here think?  Is CO2 trading likely to take off in a big way in Australia? And will a company like COZ benefit since they are already established?

Look like one to add to the watchlist for me.  Will be interesting to see if anything happens when the report is released.


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## brendan87 (9 May 2007)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Hey Love, I was also looking at this stock as well, it's had some good write ups around the place and the "idea" is good. Big companies pay them to plant trees around the edges of farms. Big company wins: they don't have to plant the trees themselves and they can go "carbon neutral". (battling) farmer wins: CO2 pays them for the land they use. Does CO2 win? That's the question I've had trouble answering when reasearching this company. As I understand it, they create a carbon credit (they are the only company able to do so legally, at the moment) but it belongs to the company that commissioned CO2 to plant the trees I think (??). On the plus side, there is a first mover advantage and high barriers to entry (short-term, until other firms apply for licenses). But it seems to me that CO2 is the "middle man" and it is bleeding cash at the moment, reliant on 'one-offs' like the Big Day Out going 'carbon neutral', costs are high, revenue is dismal. As much as I'd like to "get in on the ground floor" and don't get me wrong, I love a govt. supported industry (eg. healthcare, childcare .... etc) - I'm a bit scared to put my hard earned into this company. I'd like to see cash flows and I'd like to see them prove their business model works. While the industry "dynamics" and bigger picture are amazing for this company, I think it's a little to early to jump in here. Those with a high risk tolerance and some patience (the two don't always go hand in hand) could jump in at ground level - although check out how long the company has been around (and under 50c a share, and so many false starts). In any case, certainly one to watch.


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## Love Zn (9 May 2007)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*



brendan87 said:


> I'd like to see cash flows and I'd like to see them prove their business model works.




Agree.

They might have gotten some extra help from yesterday's budget.  From today's Herald Sun


			
				Herald Sun said:
			
		

> The government is expected to announce a carbon trading scheme linked to the Australian Securities Exchange soon, which could see businesses forced to pay more than $50,000 in an open market for every 100 tonnes of CO2 they emit.
> But there was little hint in yesterday's Budget as to the timing of the announcement, with just $2.2 millon allocated to fund the work undertaken by the government's task group on emissions trading.
> The group is due to present its final report to the Prime Minister at the end of this month.
> The goveernment did announce new depreciation arrangements yesterday to encourage the establishment of "carbon sink forests".
> The forests, planted to absorb carbon dioxide from the air, are becoming increasing popular as offets for emissions-intensive industries.




So end of May might see this move some more.


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## ideaforlife (17 May 2007)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

EU has the largest Carbon Trading System in the world. This has been proved an efficient way to facilitate a country to control CO2 emission and reach the standard level. 

CO2 certainly in the pioneer in the field in Australia. I've had research into this company's operation principal. I've a good feel of them and quite confident. 

But what concerns me a bit is their extremly low debt level. - can anyone help to explain or how to justify it?


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## Riesling (29 May 2007)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

report is due on Thursday so will be in the weekend papers for sure.

regardless of the fundamentals, media attention will draw buyers in early next week and the sp will go up, in the short term anyway.

SP has weakened over the last week on very low volume, so worth a buy now in order to trade next week.


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## ideaforlife (3 June 2007)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Hi Riesling, it seems the committment from PM is bit disappointing, how would the SP move now? Should we exit or remain a believer? Somehow I have a feel that the ann from PM will lead to a SP drop.


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## moneymajix (19 September 2007)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

In the news.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22442939-5001024,00.html


Ann.

Leading carbon offsetting company CO2 Australia today announced that it has signed an agreement with Qantas Limited to offset the emissions of around 100,000 passengers on its 'Fly Carbon Neutral Day'.
Qantas will offset the emissions for all passengers flying on a Qantas, QantasLink or Jetstar flight departing on Wednesday 19 September, anywhere in the world, as part of the Company's commitment to saving more than two million tonnes of carbon dioxide by June 2011.

"Qantas is one of many organisations that have come to us, looking to reduce their
environmental impact in a real and credible way. CO2 Australia is proud to have been
selected by one of Australia's most recognised companies, both domestically and
internationally, as its accredited carbon sink offset program provider," said Andrew
Grant, CO2 Group's Chief Executive Officer.
Under this carbon offset agreement, CO2 Australia will partner with rural farming
communities to establish and manage mallee environmental plantings in the mid to low
rainfall agricultural regions of southern Australia. These trees remove global warming
greenhouse gases from the air. These contractual arrangements are for a 30 year time
frame.

"Qantas has chosen to offset with CO2 Australia because it is the only current
Greenhouse FriendlyTM approved tree planting organisation. CO2 Australia will plant at
least 90,000 mallee Eucalyptus trees on our behalf that will sequester approximately
40,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide over time," said Rob Kella, Qantas Chief Risk Officer.
The Qantas sponsored mallee environmental plantings will be accredited under the
Federal Government's Greenhouse FriendlyTM Program (Program). This Program ensures
that the plantings meet strict compliance obligations. They have to be permanent and
undergo rigorous third-party auditing.

CO2 Australia remains the only forest carbon sink offset provider accredited under this
Program. The Company also remains the only forest carbon sink offset provider with dual
accreditations under both the Greenhouse FriendlyTM Program and the NSW Greenhouse
Gas Abatement Scheme (NSW GGAS).
"We are chosen by companies like Qantas because they know how rigorous and thorough
the accreditation process is. They are confident that they are getting what they pay for,"
said Mr Grant.
"Reafforestation forms an important part of our carbon abatement mix. We are committed
to Australia's long term future in this area and believe that the multiple benefits accrued
from supporting CO2 Australia's environmental mallee plantings are significant for
reafforesting Australia and reducing emissions in the long term” said Mr Kella..


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## Aussiejeff (16 November 2007)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

COZ shares UP 17+% as I type....

This excerpt from the company Sep Qtr report is also interesting...

_"The Company believes that ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by Australia will have significant implications to the commericalisation of its CO2 AUSTRALIA (TM) Carbon Sequestration Program, as it provides the opportunity for ratified developed countries to undertake carbon offset programs in Australia and recognise the carbon credits generated in Australia in offshore carbon jurisdictions"_.

My comment: I hadn't considered that ratification of Kyoto could have an immediate major beneficial impact on accredited CO2 reduction businesses in Oz. So, it would appear the SP for COZ might move significantly further north if Labor gets in...

Disclaimer: I don't hold any shares in this company.

AJ


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## Purple XS2 (22 November 2007)

*COZ - CO2 Group Limited*

Being a tree-hugger and all , this stock has a certain appeal, and there have been some promising announcements of late which indicate the big and dirty end of town sees some advantage in forming a relationship with a carbon-offset trader.

Stock price has spiked significantly this week.

That being said, I have a profound mistrust of the environmental usefulness of carbon offsets, so I've kept my distance.

Carbon offset trading however, may have its day in the economic sun.

ASF members' opinions appreciated.


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## chops_a_must (22 November 2007)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group Limited*



Aussiejeff said:


> My comment: I hadn't considered that ratification of Kyoto could have an immediate major beneficial impact on accredited CO2 reduction businesses in Oz. So, it would appear the SP for COZ might move significantly further north if Labor gets in...
> 
> Disclaimer: I don't hold any shares in this company.
> 
> AJ




Yes, because companies registered in ratified nations would be able to buy credits here, and have them counted in the international arena. Australia is at a natural advantage given our massive land mass and soon to be very vacant ex-farming areas.



Purple XS2 said:


> Being a tree-hugger and all , this stock has a certain appeal, and there have been some promising announcements of late which indicate the big and dirty end of town sees some advantage in forming a relationship with a carbon-offset trader.
> 
> Stock price has spiked significantly this week.
> 
> ...



Useful or not, they are one of the key methods in CO2 reduction in the international arena.

The only thing I don't like about this company, is its apparent weak cash flow. However, this seems to be improving slightly as the chances of a Labor win is factored in by companies.

Eventually, what is needed is liquidity in this market, which will come. But one of the very few, perhaps only, fully accredited CO2 offset providers, and the only exchange listed company of this type, makes it open to getting more cash (if needed), and a good punt if you're into this thing.

The cash should see it through most of next year, if it hasn't had significant orders by then. But I may look to get in sometime before the weekend.


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## tony73 (4 January 2008)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group Limited*

Whats up with the 12% lift in this stock today, no ann, can anyone explain! It seems like a promising break out looking at the volume. Can it hold the high?


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## chops_a_must (4 January 2008)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group Limited*



tony73 said:


> Whats up with the 12% lift in this stock today, no ann, can anyone explain! It seems like a promising break out looking at the volume. Can it hold the high?




Technicals mate. I missed an entry on the open by half a cent. And couldn't adjust my order because of work.  Ahhhh.... it's been one of those days.

Was looking at it yesterday and saw a very nice pattern on it. I'd expect this to do very well next week.


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## chops_a_must (8 January 2008)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group Limited*



chops_a_must said:


> Technicals mate. I missed an entry on the open by half a cent. And couldn't adjust my order because of work.  Ahhhh.... it's been one of those days.
> 
> Was looking at it yesterday and saw a very nice pattern on it. I'd expect this to do very well next week.




After pulling that order, I ended up deciding to go in, again, as it looks to have held the bottom of the breakout bar. First target is about 1.10. Given the strength it has shown, I'd say it has a fair chance of getting there.

Was watching Landline today, and it appears as if CO2 credits will effectively be tracking the price of Wheat. Of course that may change, but in the short term, it may be an interesting agricultural play.

Anyway, here is that transcript: (Video available at the link address below)



> Cleared land replanted for 'carbon farming'
> Reporter: Chris Clark
> 
> First Published: 24/06/2007
> ...




http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2006/s1958816.htm


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## chops_a_must (8 January 2008)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group Limited*

Continued:



> CHRIS CLARK: Landcare's chief executive Brian Scarsbrick sees a huge future in the carbon credit market.
> 
> BRIAN SCARSBRISK, CEO, LANDCARE: I'm calling it carbon farming. It's part of Landcare farming. They can have a regular income stream from trees on their property, helps with the biodiversity on property, but also get a regular alternative income as a result.
> 
> ...


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## tony73 (10 January 2008)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group Limited*

Thanks for the post, very informative. I hold for the long term and watch with interest. I like the concept and believe it will gain more interest through the year.


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## drlog (27 August 2008)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group Limited*

Hi,

I am pretty new to the share market. Looking at the COZ annual report, there is a diluted *EPS of 0.38*.

Since the closing price today was 0.32, that puts the P/E at 0.32/0.38=*0.842*. Is that right?

I mean, its really cool that they made a profit last year - how come the share price hasn't jumped vertically up?

Perhaps I missed something important in the annual report? The current ratio is about 3 and the quick ratio is about 1.2. Both of those values put them in good financial standing.

Oh well, see how their price changes 


Ok, looking more into the annual report: There was about $3m of cash flow from issuing shares. So that means, as I interpret it, they really made a loss?


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## drlog (3 September 2008)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group Limited*

Heh, if anyone is interested, I see the huge error in my PE calculation now that commsec have reported it.

My current and quick ratio calculations were about right (I was rough with them anyway).

The EPS is actually $0.0038   not $0.38!! 

So really, the PE ratio should be closer to 0.3/0.0038 = 78.947

That explains why there hasnt been a huge price jump. Nevertheless, COZ could be worth watching.

Cool


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## drlog (27 July 2009)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group Limited*

Over the last few weeks, COZ has been going up.

Is this because the whole market is going up or is it in anticipation of increased EPS? Does anyone have any insight?

Either way, I don't mind


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## beatle (8 July 2011)

*COZ - CO2 Group Limited*

COZ has broken through recent resistance levels and starting to look very exciting. Clearly with the likelihood of a carbon price due to be introduced COZ will be a major beneficiary, and finally the market has realised it! Mind its taken its time to show some buying strength, but once again slow and steady wins the race - the last time the ETS loomed on the horizon COZ hit a dollar. Its possible once again ...


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## beatle (3 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Since my first (and only) post on COZ (CO2 Group) there has been a major change to the environment that the company works in. Since that first post the legislation to allow a carbon price has already successfully gone through the Lower House, and is due to go through the Senate in the coming weeks (can someone tell me the exact date please). Since the Senate is dominated by Labour and the Greens, each of whom have already agreed on this carbon pricing arrangement, the Senate will approve the legislation. 

That legislation comes into effect on 1 July 2012 such that Australia will have the world's largest carbon pricing scheme, the impact of which will force a major change in Australian industries involved with high carbon emissions, such as the power stations, secondary industries including steel and alumina, and airlines, amongst others.

COZ has been heavily involved in discussions with policymakers and legislators for that Federal Govt legislation to ensure that COZ's carbon credit scheme is tailored to accomodate that legislation. This ensures that COZ can provide carbon credits as those high emitting industries begin to prepare for that July1 2012 deadline. It is approved and authorised to trade in carbon credits by both State and Federal Governments.

In addition under existing State legislation COZ already has begun to negotiate contracts with some major groups, such as NSW power stations, Woodside, Qantas etc, but in recent months the major companies have sat back waiting the outcome of the political debate and whilst this has happened COZ has been getting its house in order, plus adding new business divisions to provide a full carbon credit service to industry. This has resulted in it developing Carbon Banc, effectively a carbon broking service which aggregates smaller amounts of carbon credits from various parties and sells them on to high emitters. This business has been going only since April 2011 and resulted in revenue of $11 million in the past 6 months. The Carbon Banc business is in its infancy and should increase appreciably as industry gets set for July 1 next year, as will its core carbon credit business that covers the planting of specialty trees that sequestre carbon underground. 

In addition COZ has also started to develop an ancillary business related to the reafforestation of mine sites.

Tomorrow is another important date, as options in COZ, (ie COZO) end their trading (and expire on 12 Nov 2011), and therefore the trading activities of COZ will not be affected by the side games involving COZO. Therefore, it is likely that COZ share price will start to build in the coming months, bearing in mind that within the first 6 months of next year all carbon emitting industries need to buy carbon credits, which COZ can provide from its various activities. 

Now is a strategic time and opportunity for investors to start acquiring COZ, ahead of when the main surge is anticipated to begin for carbon credits. As with most strategic investments COZ is at a pivotal point, and therefore anyone seeking to enter now will not be able to get positive support from charting interpretation, this is too early for such support. But for those who want a ground position in COZ I suggest you look at it now.

Unfortunately due to its business activities COZ is constrained in its news flow, so patience is recommended, its not a company that will maintain huge PR at this point. But once the next big carbon credit deal is done and announced by COZ, with whomever, COZ will be effectively confirming my view that its in an exciting space, and its growth prospects are substantial.

There probably is time to slowly accumulate (provided no new deal is announced!), but IMO it won't be long before the market starts to appreciate COZ's potential.


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## iRod (3 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

beatle

FYI 



> the legislation to allow a carbon price has already successfully gone through the Lower House, and is due to go through the Senate in the coming weeks (can someone tell me the exact date please).




senate-vote-carbon-price-next-tuesday

It's counterpart CCF made a modest rise (10%) on light volume today, maybe a rally on the way, & dragging COZ with it.


Regards


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## beatle (4 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Most appreciative IRod for that. So the carbon pricing legislation will be formally accepted next week ..."The Labor government's controversial carbon tax is likely to pass the parliament early next week after Labor and the Greens agreed to truncate debate."

My view on this subject is that whether you agree with the carbon pricing legislation or not, it will be law and preparations for starting up of the scheme beginning on 1 July 2012 effectively start as soon as this legislation is passed. Thus all carbon emitters need to get their house in order now in readiness for that date. 

I'm convinced this will result in many new contracts being written and announced by COZ covering new carbon credit agreements with major emitters. With COZ having at least $25 million and possibly as much $31 million cash in bank after the expiry of options on Nov 12 (next week) this provides the company with considerable capacity to undertake many initiatives related to the carbon credit scheme. By pure luck this is ideal timing for COZ when you consider that the next 8 months are crucial for emitters to expedite agreements prior to the legislation being applied next July.

Since COZ is the largest provider of carbon credit offsets in Australia, with a growing list of major corporates and Stage Government Departments already on its list of customers, has considerable cash at bank to undertake its activities, and has been busily building its business divisions for the forthcoming establishment of a carbon pricing scheme being approved, COZ should be a major player and benefactor of this new legislation.


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## beatle (4 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

COZ traded down 1.0 cent today, to 14.5 cents, on only slight volume, I suggest due to the expiring of the options which stopped trading today (and moved downwards to be 1.2 cents from 2.0 cents yesterday).

The next week or so could be a good time to accumulate COZ, as options are exercised and quoted over that period of time. Some may have to exercise but want to exit soon thereafter as they might not be able to afford to hold all the shares they have converted from options. 

I will be picking at the opportunities, to build up a few more COZ, in readiness for the exciting times to come over the next months leading up to July 1, 2012.


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## iRod (4 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*



beatle said:


> COZ traded down 1.0 cent today, to 14.5 cents, on only slight volume, I suggest due to the expiring of the options which stopped trading today.




not quite - it seems Mon 7th is the last trading day  of the options ... see today's ann

www.asx.com.au..Code=COZ

So keep those itchy fingers in check for a little longer!!


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## beatle (5 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*



iRod said:


> not quite - it seems Mon 7th is the last trading day  of the options ... see today's ann
> 
> www.asx.com.au..Code=COZ
> 
> So keep those itchy fingers in check for a little longer!!




Once again IRod I'm most appreciative for your correcting my error in regard to the last trading day for COZO. As you state according to the announcement yesterday ..."CO2 Group Limited (the “Company”) reminds all option holders and potential option holders Monday 7 November 2011 is the last trading day in the Company’s listed options which expire on 12 November 2011."

In fact I spoke with the Company Secretary earlier on in the week (Tuesday) and he told me at that time that Friday was the last trading day. I imagine he was in error also as he must have been instructed by the exchange that since the company had agreed to extend cheques received on Monday 14 November (since 12 Nov is a Saturday) that the last trading day must be the Monday.

So I apologise for my incorrect post yesterday, and it proves to me that word of mouth is not always the final word - as it turns out I didn't even bother to read the last date of trading in that announcement, just relied on what I had been told. Quite an error!!!

Well I would suggest that once companies start entering contracts for carbon credits with COZ my slip up will be seen as negligible when the COZ share price gets traction. I can see a major move up at the announcement of even the next major deal, as it will signify the business is FINALLY open for business with the new legislation in place. Thereafter its likely that the floodgates will be open to accept considerable new business!


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## beatle (7 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

A great announcement for COZ regarding its other business focus, in New Zealand:

"CO2 Group’s partner CO2 New Zealand secures new $10 million carbon
sequestration project in New Zealand.

CO2 Group Limited (“CO2 Group” ASX:COZ) is pleased to announce that its partner CO2 New Zealand has secured a new $10 million carbon sequestration project in New Zealand for a significant Maori community (Iwi) on the North Island of New Zealand.
CO2 Group holds a 45 per cent interest in CO2 New Zealand LP which has secured the contract. The project, which will be undertaken in partnership with the Iwi and other local authorities, will bring additional benefits such as carbon based afforestation, erosion control and waterway management.

“This is a significant project for CO2 Group and further strengthens our New Zealand business,” said CO2 Group’s CEO Andrew Grant. “It also diversifies our revenue streams and client base, and it is in line with our strategy of partnering with leading blue chip organisations, municipalities and government bodies....."

This is not the main game for COZ, its main activity is within the Australian carbon credit area, a business that will only become more active once we have certainty of the legislation passing through the Upper House tomorrow, and as we move towards the starting date of 1 July 2012. 

Now is the time to consider accumulating cautiously in COZ shares IMO, prior to the first big new contract deal is secured and announced to the market by COZ


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## beatle (7 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Getting back to the expiry of the COZO options, I note COZ has just put out an announcement: "...CO2 Group Limited (the “Company”) has been advised by the ASX today that the last trading day in the Listed Options was Friday 4 November not Monday 7 November 2011.

This error is regrettable and we apologise to all option holders for any inconvenience.
As previously advised the options expire on a Saturday; as a consequence the Company will accept all applications to convert up to and including Monday 14 November 2011...."

Lol, so my advice by the company secretary earlier last week was correct after all, and now I'm not sure if I should conclude that its more important to believe what you hear or believe what you see, lol!

But as I said a couple of posts earlier, it really won't matter too much about whether it had another day of options trading or not, its now clear that COZ has got the past trading games of the options behind it and with a sound business plan, a clear strategy to build upon its business of providing carbon credits, strong funding position and a huge australian carbon market yet to be tapped, the timing is right for COZ! 

This morning's announcement of the NZ deal is something completely out of the blue, but bears testament to COZ's strong position within this new sector for business. The NZ joint venture is a bonus, but we can expect a lot more of those deals being announced within the first few months of next year for its 100% owned Australian business - that will power COZ upwards in the coming months. The first new Australian deal will in my opinion prove my point, so watch it carefully from now on!


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## beatle (7 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Trading wise COZ was quite good today, up 1.5 cents (ie +10%) on low volume (but relatively the volume was not so low!). The reason for its move up presumably was the positive announcement by the company of the $10 million deal its 45% owned joint venturer has completed in NZ.

With the options COZO ceasing to trade last Friday there is no impediment now for investors in COZ to slowly accumulate shares - in the recent days I felt that share/option holders were trading on the arbitrage between the share and options prices, so now that is not an issue other than realising about 1.5 million options were bought at the equivalent of 13.5 cent - these could come out in the coming week once share options are converted to shares, but who knows what price those converters are to come out, they might be hoarded for a longer term future too!

My view is that COZ will probably trade at its current price for the next couple of weeks, until the announcement of its financial year results, supposedly to be released on 28 Nov;-  "...Mr. Grant says CO2 Group is in strong shape with no debt and a growing cash position and it expects to report its full year financial results on 28 November 2011."

I wouldn't mind forecasting that the financial result will be a good one, bearing in mind Carbon Banc has been trading since April with A$11 million in revenue in that past 6 month period - clearly the cost base for that trading is important but I can't see it being anything more than about $5 - 6 million, perhaps that me sticking my finger in the air rather than an educated guess, but there I have made a forecast!

I will continue a commentary on COZ on a regular basis, and would be happy to be accompanied by anyone who would like to put in a post on any matter related to COZ. I hate posting by myself, it means I always win an argument but its not as much fun! I should add that since posting on Saturday there has been around 240 viewers to my posts! Whilst I have checked it a few times in that period, there clearly are observers out there that are currently the silent majority and not me! I will record the viewers to this thread and that might give us all an idea of how many observers might have an interest to COZ. (I think the view count when I started this post was about 2,460).


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## beatle (8 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

This encapsulates the current status of the carbon tax legislation (compliments of Skynews):-

"The Senate votes on the government's carbon tax today.

The upper house continued a fiery debate on amendments to the government's clean energy future legislation last night, but the tax is expected to pass around midday (AEDT) when Labor forces a vote.

With the help of the Greens, the government will have in place, for the first time, a mechanism to price carbon.

It begins with a 23-dollars-per-tonne carbon tax on the 500 biggest polluters from July 1, 2012, ahead of a market-driven emissions trading scheme in 2015...".

Regardless of whether you believe in the science of it (I'm actually a doubter to be perfectly honest!), and whether you believe that it is a sensible tax particularly at this point in time of the economic cycle (again I'm a doubter!), my motto is not to hide my head in the sand. I prefer to learn from my past negative attitude, and in this instance say, well its now inevitable, no point to bash your head up against the wall, what is the most sensible way to make a buck out of it? 

So, since COZ will be a major benefactor of the legislation, it is the first mover in the carbon credit market in an Australian business sense, it has set up the myriad of spinoff businesses to fully benefit from the tax and the scientific data to support its case to quantify carbon dioxide emissions, it has got the money and no debt (in fact has got no less than $25 million cash once all the options are exercised in the coming week) to support its business ventures. COZ is the ideal company to invest in. Therefore, my conclusion about how to make a buck from this tax is -Buy COZ shares!!!


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## iRod (8 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

.....


> I note COZ has just put out an announcement: "...CO2 Group Limited (the “Company”) has been advised by the ASX today that the last trading day in the Listed Options was Friday 4 November not Monday 7 November 2011.



Anyway...


beatle said:


> Regardless of whether you believe in the science of it (I'm actually a doubter to be perfectly honest!), and whether you believe that it is a sensible tax particularly at this point in time of the economic cycle (again I'm a doubter!),.. well its now inevitable, ... what is the most sensible way to make a buck out of it?




Ditto.... I also think Abbott has a difficult chance of reversing the tax...assuming he wins the next election & is even leader. 

So I generally agree with your positive assessment of COZ.

However I also note that EU carbon credits are at half the price ie $8.70 and $12.60 a tonne .Government-sticking-to-23-carbon-price  I wonder if that will be reconsidered. Do you know under what circumstances that Oz companies can buy foreign credits instead of Oz ones? 

Here is  a live daily(20min delay) COZ Chart, showing  hopefully a bounce off it's low  that might be interesting to compare in a few months. Needs to get in top half of BBs ie above the MA line(middle on) to see an upward trend develop.

www.marketwatch:COZ

Regards


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## beatle (8 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*



iRod said:


> I also note that EU carbon credits are at half the price ie $8.70 and $12.60 a tonne .Government-sticking-to-23-carbon-price  I wonder if that will be reconsidered. Do you know under what circumstances that Oz companies can buy foreign credits instead of Oz ones?
> 
> Regards




Hi Irod, much appreciate your post and question, which I must admit I don't know the answer to, but I will direct it to the company next time I contact them. I understand that they are busy this week at the Carbon Expo so I will leave them be til next week, so I don't end up on their nuisance list!

Also, I am the first to say that I have no knowledge re interpretation of charts and so your charting comments are much appreciated. Its great to see COZ trading at 17 cents so far today (up 6%, 1 cent) and a Bid at 17.5 cents, even though the volume remains light. Shame though, as I had hoped to accumulate a lot more, seems like people are holding on at this low price for the moment!

I like COZ's statement today:
"...Passing of Clean Energy legislation delivers new growth opportunities for CO2
Group
Clean Energy legislation to create new market opportunities for CO2 Group:
• 500 new potential customers that have a direct liability under the carbon price;
• International funds can now invest in Australia and repatriate credits created to offshore
markets;
• Big fuel consumers can invest in carbon sinks to avoid reduction in fuel excise rebates...".


----------



## beatle (8 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

After such a momentus day for the passing of legislation of the Carbon Tax and associated bills, COZ moved higher albeit on relatively low volume of 248,000 shares. I believe its just the start for COZ, and its true potential will only become apparent when the next big contract for carbon credits is announced by COZ. Its likely to be the forerunner of a number of following deals by major CO2 emitters, in preparation for the commencement of the scheme on 1 July 2011.

COZ CEO Andrew Grant stated that ..."The Clean Energy legislation is a milestone occasion for the carbon offset industry, with CO2 Group well positioned to take full advantage of the opportunities that the legislation provides. The Clean Energy legislation essentially means that the country’s biggest greenhouse gas emitters will need to consider how they reduce their carbon liability, with CO2 Group a market leader in assisting such companies lower their cost of carbon.”

“Not only does the legislation open up the Company to more than 500 new potential customers looking to acquit their tax liability, but it also allows the business to expand into offshore markets through the repatriation of carbon credits. This is a truly exciting time for CO2 Group, with this legislation providing a framework that delivers us the prospect of rapid growth.”

On a separate matter, the views on the COZ thread here have begun to increase, with it going from 2,465 mid  yesterday to 2,613 today. Shame we don't have anyone else posting other than my valued IRod, but hopefully over time it will get traction when the market starts to realise COZ has a good business model and is beginning to take off with increasing revenue. 

Note that COZ has an existing customer base that "..include Woodside Petroleum, Newmont Mining, Inpex, Eraring Energy, Origin Energy, ACTEW, Kansai Electric Power, Macquarie Bank and Wannon Water...."

and that "....CO2 Group is the largest provider of dedicated forest carbon sink plantings in Australia with more than 22,000 hectares under management. The company has been operating since 2004."


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*



beatle said:


> I believe its just the start for COZ, and its true potential will only become apparent when the next big contract for carbon credits is announced by COZ. Its likely to be the forerunner of a number of following deals by major CO2 emitters, in preparation for the commencement of the scheme on 1 July 2011.



I think the legislation for taxing carbon dioxide emitters will begin in July 2012 while any  emissions trading will begin in 2015 that is if the Coalition fails to rescind this toxic tax. You know pollies can't be trusted on their word though.


> The new regulations will impose a carbon tax on 500 of the country’s biggest polluters starting in July, before becoming a *market-based trading program in 2015*. The size of the trading program would be second only to the European Union’s.


----------



## beatle (9 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*



Wysiwyg said:


> I think the legislation for taxing carbon dioxide emitters will begin in July 2012 while any  emissions trading will begin in 2015 that is if the Coalition fails to rescind this toxic tax. You know pollies can't be trusted on their word though.




Great to read your post Wysiwyg, and I hope you remain looking at COZ. And what a controversial commentary! So much so that I would like to broaden that debate so that we can get more clarity on the future of the carbon tax. And I would again like to put in my own personal beliefs that probably don't necessarily jell with the science of carbon emissions and the broader impact on the environment. (I would imagine many geologists would probably have some doubts about the scientific arguments being used to authenticate it - and I'm a geologist by qualification).

Now a political statement that I believe goes to the heart of the debate about a carbon tax future.

I suggest that Tony Abbott can't back down on his stated policy of rescinding the tax, if he is elected. It would not meet his political objectives at all to back down. But whether he really would want to rescind another source of funds if he was to ever get into the lodge is problematical. Then will he be the leader anyway? We know another more popular liberal has got a stated preference for a carbon trading scheme - Malcolm Turnbull. 

But regardless if Tony Abbott was elected at the next election, then its most unlikely the liberals will have a majority in the senate, this has been the trend in past governments, and the Greens tend now to have the balance of power. So unless Abbott would consider a double dissolution for removal of a tax that by that time would have been comfortably bedded down, with certain tax benefits provided in the current legislation for majority of the voting public its hard to fathom why the Liberals would want to even consider a double dissolution to rescind a piece of tax legislation that provides more funds to the government. 

Thus I personally believe we will have the carbon tax from now on. Its a shame though that Tony Abbott's political argument would now hold some uncertainty on a tax that requires certainty for the major capital works decisions ahead by various operators such as power stations, major manufacturing works related to the steel industry etc. Its a shame that the political debate holds priority over the national interests of Australia! (AND I am a Liberal voter usually, but good old Tony has got me offside with his negative approach to our country's future!). 

At the end of the day, if there is a need for more government means to tax us, what better way than to tax industry that emits an environmental pollution, even if it doesn't actually cause the climate changes that the so-called experts spout!

That's my political statement. 

Now back to COZ...

I like the comment in COZ' latest announcement:

“Not only does the legislation open up the Company to more than 500 new potential customers looking to acquit their tax liability, but it also allows the business to expand into offshore markets through the repatriation of carbon credits. This is a truly exciting time for CO2 Group, with this legislation providing a framework that delivers us the prospect of rapid growth.”


----------



## beatle (10 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Whilst I don't want to upset anyone buying COZ at the moment, can I suggest that you don't push the share price too hard. Today there was 2.1 million share options converted to shares, and at the current price there might be some temptation for some of those converting to sell if the price is too strong. This could become an issue for the next couple of weeks or so as the entire outstanding options expiring on 14 Nov 2011 that are converted into shares are quoted on the ASX.

Don't get me wrong, I believe that COZ is an excellent investment now, due to it being in the right business at this critical time when the Carbon Tax is legislated, and especially after my anticipation of a good financial year result announced towards the end of Nov. But the fact that there will be some more shares floating around after options converting means that if people are too aggressive pushing up the share price then it could cause a flood of shares being sold.

 I am one who has recently converted options, but I certainly have no intention of selling for a quick gain, I am in COZ for a far longer period and expect the share price to move up much higher over time once the new contracts are completed between large emitters and COZ. And furthermore, I am still accumulating shares, so will buy more on any weakness. I believe there is still some time to accumulate, but it depends upon how the financial results go as to whether the share price goes through a re-rating or not. The Carbon Banc activity might contribute a reasonable amount to the bottom line, noting that Sept alone accounted for $4.6 million revenue.


----------



## beatle (10 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

In line with the general market COZ has come off a touch, almost into my targeted accumulate zone!

I note also that in the past day and a half the number of views on ASF for COZ has increased from 2,613 to now being 2,723 ie just over 100 times this thread has been accessed. I see that as a positive despite there being very few posters other than myself. If you have a view on COZ, either positive or negative I would be so happy to know I'm not having a chat just with myself, even though this way I get complete agreement - I'm so lonely in here at the moment, lol!


----------



## beatle (11 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

COZ trading remains quite low volume, and it has managed to keep a reasonable share price. The chancd to accumulate at this rate is harder than pulling a hen's teeth!

I note that viewers to this thread moved up from 2,723 to 2,770 over the past day. I guess thats ok with the way the market has suffered the past day, but it would certainly increase if there was another poster on here (I'm lonely ...).


----------



## beatle (14 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Since the passing of the legislation on the carbon tax last week seems the general consensus of opinion is that within the next months and moving towards July 1 next year there will be less opposition to the legislation, and thus less likely to be any threat to rescinding the carbon tax as its drawn up. This is a significant and favourable for COZ and the likelihood of it making some good announcements re deals done with some of those top 500 emitters. Bring on those announcements (ASAP!).

From 2,770 views to 2,839 over the weekend, ie 69 times this thread was viewed over the weekend. Thats significant IMO, but it would be far better if there was another regular poster. COZ is operating in a space which is prone to controversy so it would be great to hear other people's views regarding the sector and/or COZ.


----------



## beatle (22 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Very positive to see the directors convert lots of Nov 2011 options, not only adding to COZ cash coffers, but also confirming their joint vote of confidence by supporting the company to the tune of about another $15 million! AND further, its good to see that the top 20 shareholders have a tight 72 odd % of the share capital in COZ!!!

Now to see the first and many ASX releases to follow, confirming contracts being set in place with COZ and lots of the top 500 carbon dioxide emitters....


----------



## beatle (23 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

COZ' announcement yesterday was a small step in terms of its financial bottom line, but in terms of implications for COZ credibility it reinforces how significant the company is with regards to its "whole of carbon dioxide business expertise". And I would imagine that its likely that COZ will get more direct spin-off business with more significant impact on financial benefits for the company in regard to the Tasmanian carbon scene once the company's consultancy work takes hold.

The first part of the announcement follows:

"CO2 Group secures Forest Carbon Study contract with Tasmanian Government CO2 Australia Limited (a subsidiary of CO2 Group Limited, ASX:COZ), has been appointed by the Tasmanian Government, to undertake a Forest Carbon Study aimed at estimating the volume of carbon currently stored in Tasmania’s forest estates. 

The study is seen as a critical project for Tasmania, particularly given the recent passage of the Commonwealth Government’s national carbon pricing legislation. It is also evidence of CO2 Group’s continued diversification of revenue streams, the strength of its advisory services team and the significant carbon project expertise that it has developed. The Company’s CEO, Andrew Grant, said “As part of our corporate strategy, we continue to broaden the range of services our company offers. We are very pleased to have the opportunity to be involved in this project, which leverages off our strengths in the carbon advisory area. We have some unique experience in forest carbon accounting and assessing the commercial potential for forest carbon projects, all of which align very well with the objectives of this study.” 

CO2 Group is well placed to deliver the project, with over seven years’ experience operating within domestic and international carbon markets. CO2 Group is the country’s largest developer of reforestation-based carbon projects, having developed over 22,000 hectares of dedicated carbon plantings in Australia. Carbon markets, including the recently passed carbon pricing legislation, may offer significant economic opportunities for Tasmania. 

The government’s Forest Carbon Study will provide an independent, expert assessment of the volume of carbon currently stored in Tasmania’s forest estate, and our most significant opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration in our forest sector.

Importantly, the study will also look at opportunities for Tasmania to monetise emission reductions in the forest sector."


----------



## beatle (24 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Just to put out a short comment re COZ. As a side note to a previous ASX release COZ indicated that it would put out its financial statement about 28 Nov. Don't be surprised to see a reasonable improvement in financial performance, based on its Carbon Bank establishment in April 2011. If that does occur then we might find COZ starting to move up a bit, so trading at current prices might be an opportunity!


----------



## beatle (25 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

COZ holding up pretty well today in a difficult market. One thing that hits home to me at the moment with lots of stocks out there, is that you really have to be a stockpicker, noting that any company that isn't due to either report something in new business or excellent results in what it does will come under price pressure. What I like about COZ is that it has a lot of things going for it at the moment:
1. The govt has provided a means for COZ building new business with the major carbon emitters, and those emitters will have to consider their alternatives to simply paying $23/tonne of carbon dioxide emitted from July 1 next year - certainly this will result in many companies considering COZ as one of those alternatives.
2. Carbon Banc trading from April 2011 in the carbon space, aggregating carbon credits from small credit providers to sell to major carbon emitters.
3. Consultancy services within the carbon dioxide emission/sequestration space (as per the Tassie govt announcement the past week).
4. Minesite rehabilitation.
Etc etc.

And COZ making its latest financial result early next week might provide some insight as to how these new business initiatives could improve COZ financial return. A very interesting time for shareholders and onlookers.


----------



## beatle (29 November 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

A good financial outcome for COZ announced today for the last financial year, with after tax profit of $1.5 million, on substantially increased turnover of . Especially knowing its only just starting for the company, and great to see that the revenue has increased appreciably despite the real deals yet to announced re carbon sequestration for the top 500 or so carbon dioxide emitters.

A summary of the financial year result:
• Record revenue of $35 million - up from $27 million in F2011 (15mths)
• NPAT of $1.5 million
• EBIT of $2.2 million
• Earnings per share of .52 cents
• Record cash position at November 2011 - $35 million and no debt (ie cash backing of 8 cents per share!).


----------



## beatle (2 December 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

I assume that news for COZ will remain slow over the coming couple of months, as businesses slow down for the Christmas period. Only once companies get back to work in late January will it become evident to some that they must consider bio-sequestration as part of the mix of cutting down carbon emission liabilities due from 1 July 2012. 

Thus getting set now in COZ, on a slow building up of stock is what I consider to be a smart strategy, and what I am pursuing personally. The stock is not so liquid at the moment and thus building a holding is a s-l-o-w process, but I believe it will be rewarding running up to July next year, particularly as new deals are announced.


----------



## beatle (12 December 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

COZ trading isn't slow, its more like non-existent! Seems that its going to be very hard to build a largish position in the company in the coming months as sellers don't want to sell out at too lower price! I have been waiting (im)patiently with my bid slightly below the current price and nothing, not even on gloomy market days. I might have to readjust my buy in price soon as I'm concerned that I won't get enough at my preferred price - but when I up the bid to 17 cents seems that there are sellers at that level. I can see its going to be a long time building a position, but I think we have a few months before the fireworks begin, so patience is a virtue!
(I tossed up whether I should post this but decided that I would do so even if it adds to the competition, but I do want to confirm that I remain bullish on COZ having started to post on COZ in recent months).


----------



## beatle (15 December 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Whilst not a price sensitive announcement COZ announced yesterday:

"CO2 Group voted Australasia’s best carbon company in leading Environmental
Markets Survey - Two of the world’s leading environmental markets publications, Environmental Finance and Carbon Finance,have named environmental services company, CO2 Group Limited (“CO2 Group”), as a winner in their annual market survey.

CO2 Group was voted “Best Project Developer” in Australasia in the Environmental Finance and Carbon Finance magazine survey which is the most closely watched poll of sentiment across the world’s carbon, renewable energy, weather risk, US emissions, and weather and catastrophe risk markets.

The survey results reveal those firms that clients, peers and competitors have judged to have provided the best service in environmental markets over the previous 12 months...."

The signficance of this in the lead up to July 1 2012 will be the recognition that COZ remains the leading provider of carbon credits in Australia. This will be a major consideration for the big CO2 emitters as they try to offset their liability to the tax of  $23/tonne of CO2 emitted. 

Whilst it hardly did anything to COZ' share price yesterday, it could be a very relevant consideration to price movements for the company in the months leading up July 1 next year.


----------



## beatle (20 December 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Yesterday was a great day for us trying to accumulate shares in COZ, with some holders weakening in the face of the gloomy outlook for the market and dropping just over 400,000 shares at 15.5 and 16.0 cents, predominantly the latter. Thank you very much, I got some of those shares and will be holding tightly - my shares effectively are filed away in my bottom drawer for rosier times in the coming years to come 

I can't see COZ making any news for the next few weeks over the festive season so there its still possible to get some more before the activity heats up in the first few months from around Feb next year. That's my view anyway, and that's why I'm accumulating at present.

Good luck COZ holders (any other posts and views are welcome of course!)...


----------



## Applebyte (21 December 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*



beatle said:


> Good luck COZ holders (any other posts and views are welcome of course!)...




Certainly very exciting times ahead for COZ, and I'm in it to win it


----------



## beatle (23 December 2011)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Great to read your post Applebyte, and let's hope we can share our thoughts with a few more posters on the COZ thread in the coming months. I am still in the process of acquiring more though, so my posts are not so frequent at the moment, and also there is little news happening - I expect that more happening once business gets back to work from around mid-Feb 2012 when deals are being closed between COZ and the various major CO2 emitters.

Merry Christmas all.


----------



## beatle (5 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Yesterday's trading in COZ was improved, with more shares finally coming out at a reasonable price. I'm still slowly accumulating but if it starts to move higher from here its ok with me, I have got quite a few now and can't wait for the first of the many new deals that I expect for COZ with the bigger CO2 emitters in Australia that should be announced within the next few months. I guess its still a couple of months for those deals to be concluded, so there is probably some time to go before it takes off and still an opportunity for stock pickers to get set. I'm almost there, especially after some shares coming out yesterday, but I will take a few more if you want to help me out, lol.


----------



## beatle (6 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

COZ had a day in the sun a couple of days ago, now its gone back to sleep, lol! I guess it will have an increasing number of days when there is activity as time moves towards deals being done with various CO2 emitters.
I will continue to pick up shares as time goes by and when the frustrated holders decide to sell out at this cheap price (IMO!).


----------



## beatle (10 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

COZ trading the past few days has continued to be docile, except for a rush of blood by one frustrated seller who eventually dumped a swag down from 15.5 cents through to 14 cents in the one transaction! Wow, he would be pretty peed off if he considered the news put out by COZ's only direct competitor in the carbon sequestration space, CCF. I copy that ASX release below for your consideration, which paints a very rosy picture for the industry as a whole (and COZ is likely to get its fair share of the pie, especially since its actually the bigger of the two companies, has more carbon expertise on board and a much stronger balance sheet with around $30 million cash in bank and no debt on its books!).

CCF Announcement of 10 Jan 2012 (the shares have skyrocketed up 9 cents, ie 46% at the time of this post!). The implications for COZ are very exciting and take note CCF's expected EPS in 2012/2013/2014 - they are humongous projections!

"CARBON CONSCIOUS FORECASTS $3.5M NET PROFIT AFTER TAX FOR 2012
Dear Sir
Carbon Conscious encloses a Company update including 2012 earnings guidance to the market.
HIGHLIGHTS
• Projected $3.5 Million NPAT is 309% increase on 2011
• Projected EPS 4c, 122% rise
• $9.4 Million current cash at bank
• $1.5 Billion in term sheets under consideration with clients
• NPAT targets of $14 Million & $23 Million in 2013 & 2014
Australia’s leading carbon forest sink project developer Carbon Conscious Limited (ASX: CCF) forecasts its net profit after tax (NPAT) will rise 309 per cent to $3.5 Million for the year to June 2012.
This represents earnings per share (EPS) of 4 cents, based on forecast sales revenue of $16 Million (up 129 per cent) for 2012 and EBITDA of $4.6 Million (up 285 per cent).

These forecasts are based on the Board’s expectation that Carbon Conscious will complete its 2012 planting program of 10,000 hectares to sequester carbon and claim carbon credits. The 2012 planting program is fully supported by Origin Energy’s recent exercise of planting options. The Company is targeting planting programs of 20,000 hectares in 2013 and 30,000 hectares in 2014. On achieving these targets Carbon Conscious should achieve a $14 Million and $23 Million NPAT respectively, resulting inEPS’ of 16 cents in 2013 and 26 cents in 2014.

Carbon Conscious has $9.4 Million of cash at bank as at 31 December 2011."

COZ is looking very good when you consider this announcement by CCF!!!


----------



## skc (10 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

By and large these guys are paid to plant trees in order to benefit from a tax regime. Sounds way too similiar to many investors (rightly or wrongly) to Great Southern, Timbercorp, FEA, GNS etc etc.

The big difference is that with CCF and COZ, it's large companies like ORG and WPL giving them the cash.

CCF will be a great trading stock for some time. COZ you thought will have at least a pulse on the back of CCF today, but it has a big goose egg in volume so far.


----------



## beatle (11 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Hi Skc, you are correct that COZ buziness does revolve a lot around the newly imposed carbon tax, but it does derive a number of its deals through government instrumentalities that seek a new clean energy future and encourage industry to provide for such a future with incentives (and penalties!).

The comparison with the likes of Timbercorp etc that you mention is not a good comparison and unfair, actually puts a slur on COZ that shouldn't be there since it is providing for a complete gamut of carbon businesses related to carbon sequestration, environmental management of industrial and mining sites, consulting etc, as well as providing a means for the selling of carbon credits both for the bigger investor and the retail joe public.

COZ didn't react to the CCF announcement yesterday and it surprised me, and actually was off a cent with a small trade at 15 cents. I expect that COZ will start moving higher in the coming months once the market realises its likely huge deal flow with the carbon tax liabilities looming for Australia's 500 major carbon dioxide emitters!


----------



## skc (11 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*



beatle said:


> Hi Skc, you are correct that COZ buziness does revolve a lot around the newly imposed carbon tax, but it does derive a number of its deals through government instrumentalities that seek a new clean energy future and encourage industry to provide for such a future with incentives (and penalties!).
> 
> The comparison with the likes of Timbercorp etc that you mention is not a good comparison and unfair, actually puts a slur on COZ that shouldn't be there since it is providing for a complete gamut of carbon businesses related to carbon sequestration, environmental management of industrial and mining sites, consulting etc, as well as providing a means for the selling of carbon credits both for the bigger investor and the retail joe public.
> 
> COZ didn't react to the CCF announcement yesterday and it surprised me, and actually was off a cent with a small trade at 15 cents. I expect that COZ will start moving higher in the coming months once the market realises its likely huge deal flow with the carbon tax liabilities looming for Australia's 500 major carbon dioxide emitters!




I am not comparing COZ to Timbercorp. I am saying some investors compared them to Timbercorp (perhaps wrongly). The exposure to regulatory risks however are definitely comparable... i.e. they have no business if the tax enviornment changes.

I think CCF and COZ are such new companies the economics are not very well understood. Applying a PE to CCF's projected profit is a no brainer... but I doubt that's how it should be done.  From what I understand CCF's Origin deal is a biggy but much of that profit is booked upfront and wouldn't be ongoing. One needs to see the details of the deal and do valuation based on future deal flows + any annuity style income. Details that I haven't yet locate.


----------



## suhm (12 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

I don't quite get why CCF is forecasting so much higher profitability from a given land bank than COZ their business models are a bit opaque but it does seem like ccf has received the money up front to buy its land 8.1m being spent for the land bank.

It is all a bit opaque


----------



## beatle (17 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Hi Suhm, yes your comment about it being a bit opaque does have a lot of relevance to this space in total! I do understand that when COZ reinvented itself to become an authorised carbon credit provider it did use a model not dissimilar to that used by CCF now. But it decided that it is very capital intensive, thus decided to take on leasing arrangements with landholders for land that had limited other users, and has adapted its model to suit. This ensures that COZ is not in continual need for capital. Thus the recent reason for CCF to put out that guidance on future profits, bearing in mind it was not able to get its previous capital raising away successfully.
COZ on the other hand has a considerable cash reserve, for not I'm not sure of, but certainly it doesn't have a need for more capital with the model it employs. I do suggest that if both go well then CCF will have the potential to move considerably higher due to the lower shares on issue and the lower admin overheads, whereas COZ has the safety of a large cash reserve and considerable in-house knowledge re all facets of the carbon trading and associated consulting requirements. My view is that COZ will be a safer bet - if CCF for instance can't raise cash easily then it could be left behind or could face a cash shortage when its required to sustain or grow the business.

Skc, you are of course stating the same issue as Sumh, re lack of clarity re the carbon business model. I believe the issue that both COZ and CCF face are trying to maintain confidentiality whilst they build their business at this very important initial stage of their developments with the new legislative due to be enacted from July 1 this year. But as regards to annual allocation of their contracts I believe that they negotiate fairly long period into each transaction of say no less then 10 - 15 - 20 years, bearing in mind the fact that new forests only start to produce the carbon credits in about year 3. And our mate Tony Abbott, ala Mr No, is confusing the business landscape by vowing to rescind the legislation if elected. Of course its doubtful he could ever do so since the Greens will inevitably hold the power in the Senate, and anyways Mr No probably doesn't want to remove the tax, but just look like he wants to remove it! Thats politicians for you, at the end of the day they don't give a damn apart from their own egos!


----------



## skc (17 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*



beatle said:


> COZ on the other hand has a considerable cash reserve, for not I'm not sure of, but certainly it doesn't have a need for more capital with the model it employs. I do suggest that if both go well then CCF will have the potential to move considerably higher due to the lower shares on issue and the lower admin overheads, whereas COZ has the safety of a large cash reserve and considerable in-house knowledge re all facets of the carbon trading and associated consulting requirements. My view is that COZ will be a safer bet - if CCF for instance can't raise cash easily then it could be left behind or could face a cash shortage when its required to sustain or grow the business.




COZ has market cap ~$73m and cash ~$17.5m. CCF has market cap ~$22m and $9m cash. So not too sure about your interpretation of their relative cash situation.



beatle said:


> Skc, you are of course stating the same issue as Sumh, re lack of clarity re the carbon business model. I believe the issue that both COZ and CCF face are trying to maintain confidentiality whilst they build their business at this very important initial stage of their developments with the new legislative due to be enacted from July 1 this year. But as regards to annual allocation of their contracts I believe that they negotiate fairly long period into each transaction of say no less then 10 - 15 - 20 years, bearing in mind the fact that new forests only start to produce the carbon credits in about year 3.




I don't know whether it's lack of clarity or just my own lack of time spent on reading it up... if you can point to a source that explains it, it would be much appreciated.



beatle said:


> And our mate Tony Abbott, ala Mr No, is confusing the business landscape by vowing to rescind the legislation if elected. Of course its doubtful he could ever do so since the *Greens will inevitably hold the power in the Senate*, and anyways Mr No probably doesn't want to remove the tax, but just look like he wants to remove it! Thats politicians for you, at the end of the day they don't give a damn apart from their own egos!




This I am also not so sure. You'd thought with what's happening in the parliment these days the voting public would learn (to not invite the Greens to any party). Then again, the voting public has a pretty short memory in general.

I suppose it is times like these that you get to buy shares well below their "if-everything-worked-it-would-be-awesome" price.


----------



## beatle (18 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Hi Skc, in reply to some of your questions/comments:

Unfortunately I've not been able to find an easy way to cover the information regarding this new carbon market, but firmly believe that if you do the work  by starting going through the past COZ and CCF ASX announcements you will find that its very possible that there is money to be made in such an investment! 

Re cash positions, COZ had a Nov exercise of options, raising another $17.9 million and added to previous cash they have in fact around $34.5 million cash at bank and no debt. ie almost half the market cap is represented by cash!

With CCF they do make a comment in the latest guidance that they have $9 million cash, but if you look at the prospectus re the failed rights issue they had a negative working capital amounting to around $1.5 million, so I have a feeling that the "cash position" is not a net cash position - noting that they have bank facilities in place to assist with their activities. Thus the reason I have said that whilst they are more geared to success they are also more prone to suffer from a lack of cash for supporting sustainence/growth! Apparently the failed rights issue has another 90 days to bed down the $2 million raising via placement, and since its needed to fund the 2012 planting its an important cash requirement - this suggests to me that the $9 million cash position they refer to is not strictly net cash as you might think it is!

I am not saying that CCF isn't a good investment, just noting that its more geared and thus has more risk to it. Certainly getting some contracts away could see them shoot for the moon! And from my reading of it, the management are more entrepreneurial with their marketing, alas! But I do like the fact that the Chairman of COZ holds a considerable share investment in COZ! Close to 50%!

Yes the vagaries of politics, but actually the Greens, like them or not, have tended to control the senate vote re carbon tax and most likely will hold control in the future parliament.


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## beatle (19 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

COZ remains ho-hum, hardly ever trading and if it does either at 16 or 17 cents, nothing much to note about it. But as an interesting observation, I note that the AGM will be on 24th Feb. What is so interesting about that you may ask. Well, and I don't know if its a coincidence or something more than that, the past few years within a couple of weeks of the AGM the share price has gone through a bit of a resurgence on increased volume! It will be interesting to see if it happens again this year, but then again its about the time I would imagine the price will be increasing with the likelihood of a new contract being anticipated by the market as time moves closer to July 1!


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## beatle (19 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Seems every time I post something positive about COZ someone dumps some shares at a lower price, lol! Its one way to build up a swag of COZ more cheaply if you get ready for my positive posts


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## suhm (23 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Found this regarding CCF sheds some light into the opposition's business model.

The analyst reports are interesting

http://carbonconscious.com.au/site/files/57583/(2009-11 Alto) CCF.pdf

and

http://www.carbonconscious.com.au/files/19/files/Alto CCF research report.pdf

They changed the figures for the value of carbon credits without changing the value they create. Previously 20-30 now 20-25 but still 200-450 per year.

Per hectare basis
$800 gross profit per hectare planted in the first year (design and plantation fees, excludes
land cost)
$15 gross profit per hectare per year for 15 years (management fee, includes land cost)

So they aren't expensing land acquistion costs on purchase but amortising it over the useful life. Not sure what percentage they amortise a year.

Business models seems to be geared towards an upfront fee with a small ongoing profit until year 15 which is highly sensitive to increases in the price of agricultural land. THis previously went up when plantation land was picked up for MIS projects and I imagine this would be the case for CCF although would take longer as they are using marginal farm land.

So kicker comes from carbon credits generated year 15+ as these would accrue to CCF.

Given gross profit per hectare is supposed to be around $800 (excluding land costs) vs average land purchase costs of $875, cashflow would be marginal (there is 2m of management expenses not yet accounted for increasing with the size of plantings), it may be positive as some land purchase costs would be included in the continuing op-ex.


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## beatle (31 January 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

You make some interesting observations Suhm re CCF, and i understand that COZ originally proposed to develop a similar business model to CCF in its early days but changed that model to remove the high upfront costs associated with purchasing land for the carbon credits. Thus COZ business model and cash flow modeling doesn't follow the same basis.

COZ has had a rough old time the past week or so, with some sellers desperately trying to get out at any price (and one big seller sitting on the offer at 17 cents). I can see a time soon enough when COZ at even 17 cents will be considered a bargain! (Not sure when though, lol!).


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## beatle (10 February 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Since my last commentary COZ has continued its range trading, and enabled me to build up a fairly reasonable position at what I consider to be a good price. I'm just about set and ready to wait for those announcements of new deals that I anticipate coming in the next months - and with the AGM about on us its possible we might be pleasantly surprised as it seems the share price tends to move up on little news each annual meeting.

I note that the volumes in COZ, which tend to be very low most of the time (lots of zero days!) has been slightly more active the past few days, and today seemed as though it was out to break a record. I note that 700,000 lot seller remains and probably is keeping a tight hold in the trading range, maybe some positive news will take that seller out and unleash the fury I'm anticipating in coming months!

I'm set now, so COZ its about time you perform . . .


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## beatle (14 February 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Another (relatively speaking) high volume trading day for COZ, accompanied by improved share price. I'm still expecting some more action, both increasing volume and price up, as we approach the AGM which is late next week. 

If someone who is interested in COZ is due to attend the AGM could you please consider summarising the discussions of the meeting in a post on here. I can't make the trip to Melbourne due to other commitments otherwise I would be there as well.


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## beatle (19 February 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Anyone planning to attend the AGM for COZ who cares to post a summary of the discussion would be most appreciated. Its on in Melb late this week. Of course any significant news by the company would have to come out in an ASX release but sometimes the discussion opens up interesting facts. 

I note that the volume of shares traded in COZ has slowly increased and price is up slightly too, but still within its current range of trading over the past few months.


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## beatle (20 February 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Although its on reasonable (relatively speaking) but still low volume COZ has finally broken out of its trading range, and maybe the last few days of trading increasing volumes has been a subtle hint to something going on. 

But as I have noted previously seems to me each AGM the share price movement up precedes the meeting date! (That's the cynical side of me coming out of course).

ON THE OTHER HAND it could also be that COZ is getting near to closing on one of its deals with the likes of the 500 largest CO2 emitters. Time will tell, but if you are not on yet there's time to get set but I suggest time is running out . . . .


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## beatle (20 February 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

A fantastic days trading for COZ, up 18.2% (3 cents), on reasonable volume and still 4 days to go before the AGM! 

COZ has had a long time trading within a fairly tight range between 14 and 17 odd cents, many months, with rare occasions below that price range, and I'm confident that this move today is not the last of it, perhaps the forerunner of a much broader run as we move closer to July1 2012 - D day for Australia's 500 largest CO2 emitters!


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## beatle (21 February 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

COZ down a cent (-5.3%) on lower volume today, but for me the biggy is that Bid volumes have steadily increased! This is the best sign that there is increased interest in COZ after a long drought!

Assumedly we will get an announcement from COZ prior to Friday's AGM and that might provide some insight into current state of play with all those CO2 hungry emitters!


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## beatle (6 March 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

For those that would like to know more about CO2 group and its activities in the carbon space I suggest you listen to the following presentation by the company's MD at the recent AGM, its quite enlightening and does give one the feeling that CO2 is a broad-based company that is likely to slowly but surely build its business, both in Australia and New Zealand. 

http://www.brrmedia.com/event/94463

I'm still waiting for that next big deal that could force CO2's share price way beyond its recent trading range, that is likely to happen in the coming months as we move towards D-Day of 1 July 2012 when the largest 500 carbon dioxide emitters will be required to pay its carbon tax based on tonnes of carbon emitted, initially at $23/tonne of CO2 emitted.


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## beatle (14 March 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

Out of the blue a great end to the day for COZ, up 9% on just over 0.5 million shares to 18 cents. There doesn't seem to much on-screen support but maybe this trading late today is an indication of some moves towards a new CO2 deal being made. (Where there is smoke there is fire, most of the time!).


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## beatle (16 March 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

COZ rocketed up another 5% (1 cent) to 19.0 cents today! Shame it was on 6,631 shares!

But overall its moved from 16.0 --> 19.0 cents in recent days and seems it could be an indication of something happening in the quiet depths - all we need to stir this share price up is another deal for its carbon sequestration with a big CO2 emitter, mind you Clive Palmer is now trying to stir the water too!


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## beatle (16 March 2012)

*Re: COZ - CO2 Group*

COZ has now got a variation to the theme "Two steps forward and one step back", its "one cent forward and 2 cents backwards", lol!

For the time being I remain confident and with patience, of course the talk about rescinding this tax, which is most unlikely, is probably keeping companies from taking the plunge to invest in such carbon storage products to offset their carbon dioxide emission tax liabilities, even though the day of reality is looming ever closer!


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## System (18 March 2014)

*Re: COZ - Commodities Group*

On March 18th, 2014, CO2 Group Limited changed its name to Commodities Group Limited.


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## System (24 March 2015)

On March 24th, 2015, Commodities Group Limited (COZ) changed its name and ASX code to Seafarms Group Limited (SFG).


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## orr (28 April 2017)

System said:


> On March 24th, 2015, Commodities Group Limited (COZ) changed its name and ASX code to Seafarms Group Limited (SFG).




Hey System
Doesn't look like SFG has done else since your post. I might say though that they have become a retirement home for poorly functioning ex-trade ministers at an undisclosed salary. The distinction here that the production will be renewable and sustainable... As opposed to ex-minstrel appointments the the Mineral Council
The isolation of SFG chosen location for the billion dollar plus expansion doesn't make for easy first hand appraisel. Anyone being lost in the bush up there and stumbling across what's going on feel free to spead the word.


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## herzy (29 April 2017)

orr said:


> Hey System
> Doesn't look like SFG has done else since your post. I might say though that they have become a retirement home for poorly functioning ex-trade ministers at an undisclosed salary. The distinction here that the production will be renewable and sustainable... As opposed to ex-minstrel appointments the the Mineral Council
> The isolation of SFG chosen location for the billion dollar plus expansion doesn't make for easy first hand appraisel. Anyone being lost in the bush up there and stumbling across what's going on feel free to spead the word.




I  have tried to look into this company after a recommendation, but have found it extremely difficult to find any good way to value it. In theory, if they get a tonne of funding, it'll be a huge project... Couldn't get much further than that. Will they get funding? On what terms? Will a scale-up of that size essentially dilute me to zero?


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## orr (29 April 2017)

Hey Herzy... I watch these guy's from the side in that I have money in Ridley corp who control the franchise on the prawn food SFG will be using(if they've got any brains).
I went over them in some detail 12months to two years ago. 
A new set of eyes now would be appreciated.
See how you go working backward from 'Crystal Bay Prawns'

Back when I was looking, the development suggested a three stages of production scale up 1st stage $140 million.
About six months ago or so there were some trial ponds on the WA coast somewhere, thats from memory don't quote me...
Andrew Robb as an 'employee', sounds like a passanger to me.


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## So_Cynical (30 April 2017)

Its a massive project requiring massive amounts of money, its a case of can they get it all together...chances are well less than 50/50.


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## beatle (30 August 2017)

So_Cynical said:


> Its a massive project requiring massive amounts of money, its a case of can they get it all together...chances are well less than 50/50.




After a very long break I'm now watching Seafarms again more closely (didn't stop looking altogether but got bored to follow too closely!). Seems the company has got to a major decision point, today Wed 30 August 2017 - there is an authorized meeting of Elders who hold native title rights over Legune Station on the Northern Territory border. This site has been proposed for SFG's major prawn project - a land based aquaculture project of 10,000 Ha, with ultimately annual production of around 150,000 tonnes of black tiger prawn, primarily destined for international export. Its a mammoth project if it gets the go ahead - bundles of money required to build it (US$1.5 billion) and large annual revenue estimated at US$2.3 billion. The numbers are astronomical.
BUT will it get the ILUA grant from the Elders -  the outcome of the meeting today holds the answer to that today.
If it gets the ILUA then will it get the funding - that's the next hurdle.

If it gets the ILUA, and the funding, then this 6.5 cents share should start to move higher, and transition to a far higher market cap (around $91 million now) and share price. Its an important time for the company, and watching it from here could be a rewarding experience.

Oh, just to add, SFG already produces around 1,700 tonnes of prawns annually from 2 prawn farms in northern Queensland, so it does have a good understanding of what can make this new project highly profitable.


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## herzy (24 January 2018)

Everything seems to be ticking along nicely enough (except the share price). At the moment, I'm holding off until I see some serious funding go in (and at what price). 

It's also difficult to see how many more approvals etc they need. Every one they achieve seems to be 'key', but I haven't seen a list of what's required moving forward. I haven't looked very hard though.


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## greggles (21 May 2018)

A big move north for Seafarms Group this morning before it went into a trading halt at 11:42am "pending an announcement to the market regarding a proposed transaction involving a substantial investment into the company."

Obviously someone out there knew that this announcement was coming. 1.5 million shares traded in around an hour and a half wasn't a co-incidence.


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## greggles (23 May 2018)

Well, the announcement is out and the SFG share price is up.

Here's the announcement in part:


> *Japanese seafood giant, Nissui, invests in Project Sea Dragon*
> 
> Seafarms Group Limited (Seafarms or SFG) is pleased to announce that it has finalised an extensive agreement with Nippon Suisan Kaisha (Nissui) that includes a A$24.99 million equity investment in Seafarms at a substantial premium to SFG’s current share price. This will assist in the development of the Company’s world class Project Sea Dragon (PSD).
> 
> ...




So it appears that Nissui is getting 15% of Seafarms Group for $25 million at 10c a share with the option to increase its holding later as a result of the issue of the 28.4 million options exercisable at the same price of 10c a share.

This would appear to be a big vote of confidence in the company but it's hard to fully assess the implications of this deal at this early stage.

SFG opened at 9.4c, reached a high of 9.6c but has since slipped back to be currently trading at 7.8c.


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## So_Cynical (23 May 2018)

Thanks for keeping us up to date greggles, great news for Seafarms and its supporters and shareholders..


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## greggles (24 May 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Thanks for keeping us up to date greggles, great news for Seafarms and its supporters and shareholders..



No problem So_Cynical. I enjoy posting some updates here and there just to let others know what's going on with certain stocks.

After closing at 7.4c yesterday Seafarms Group is up 5.4% today and is trading at 7.8c. I think people are still digesting the implications of the deal. There was a flurry of excitement after the announcement yesterday but it seemed to die off fairly quickly and profit takers took control. Will be interesting to see what happens to the SFG share price in the coming weeks.


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## greggles (30 July 2018)

After spending the last couple of months consolidating between 7.7c and 9c, Seafarms Group has now moved up and out of this consolidation zone beginning on Friday last week and is currently trading at 10.5c.

Recent developments of interest include the granting of an aquaculture license for the proposed Project Sea Dragon development project in the Northern Territory and the satisfaction of the last substantive condition for the A$24.99M equity investment in SFG by Nippon Suisan Kaisha Limited.

Looks like everything is going to plan for SFG.


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## So_Cynical (31 July 2018)

I forgot i wanted to look for an entry...dam!


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## greggles (10 August 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> I forgot i wanted to look for an entry...dam!



If you'd waited a few days after my last post you could have got set around 9c during the brief retrace. It's starting to gather some momentum now following the announcement on Wednesday that 
it is about to commence on‐ground earth works at Legune Station.

Project Sea Dragon is officially underway.


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## greggles (29 December 2018)

Seafarms Group is my top pick for the CY 2019 tipping competition. 

SFG is Australia's largest producer of farmed prawns. The company's industrial scale Project Sea Dragon in Northern Australia is progressing nicely. Equity and offtake agreements have been reached with Asian global seafood giant Nippon Suisan Kaisha (Nissui). The export potential here is massive and I believe that SFG is going to see substantial share price growth in the coming year as PSD begins to take shape.

Chartwise SFG is sitting just above support at 10c and I don't expect it will fall beneath that level in the absence of bad news. So this is a a pretty good entry point. Looking forward to a great 2019!


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## greggles (31 August 2020)

SFG coming alive again in the last couple of months, up from 5c to 9c on increased volume.

The company has been quietly progressing its Project Sea Dragon in the Northern Territory and things are slowly but surely moving ahead. An update was released to the market on 23 July and appears to have renewed interest in SFG. I think given the progress that has been made, the company started to look undervalued relative to its potential.

Some info about Project Sea Dragon here: https://gateway.icn.org.au/project/3770/project-sea-dragon

Completely unaffected by COVID-19, I think this one will be worth watching over the coming months. It wouldn't surprise me to see it back above 10c in the near future.


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## greggles (14 September 2020)

greggles said:


> It wouldn't surprise me to see it back above 10c in the near future.




Well, looks like I was being conservative. SFG hit 13c today and is currently trading at 12.5c, just two weeks after my last post.

The Annual Report, released on 1 September, updated the market on Project Sea Dragon which looks to be progressing well and with government support.






SFG hasn't been at 13c in more than 18 months. Historically, 15c is an important level and 18c represents SFG's all-time high.

Seafarms Group is near the top of my watchlist as we head into the final quarter of 2020. It should be an interesting few months for the company.


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## Boggo (14 September 2020)

The break through 10c got my attention last week.

(click to expand)


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## The Triangle (14 September 2020)

Is a capital raising just around the corner?   I can't see the investment case here.  Just short-term in and out.  

Spending a lot of cash.  Targeting export market when exports not doing well and currency not doing well (if you are exporting)  Lost 25 million last year, 30 million year before, and about 20 million in '17 & '18, have 30 million in net assets and market cap is 275 million?  They need funding (and seem to be looking for Asian banks) - So, Australians not interested?   Smells fishy here.  They had a please explain last month and have nearly tripped in that time based on not a whole lot??  But hey, good for those who made a lot of money on it.


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## greggles (14 September 2020)

The Triangle said:


> Is a capital raising just around the corner?   I can't see the investment case here.  Just short-term in and out.




You have to take a medium to long term view. South-east Asia is rapidly over-fishing itself. Seafood stocks in the oceans are lower than they have ever been.  Asian countries are literally fighting over what remains.





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




The future of seafood is high quality farmed, and Australia can do this like no other country in the region thanks to our strict regulations and clean environment.

In my view SFG represents a compelling long term investment in high quality seafood exports. There might be sexier industries around at the moment, but we all need food and seafood is a huge part of Asian culture and cuisine. When the seas run dry, Asia will be looking to companies like SFG.


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## galumay (14 September 2020)

The Triangle said:


> Is a capital raising just around the corner? I can't see the investment case here. Just short-term in and out.




Thats how it looks to me, the NT project is a massive capital intensive investment and its not a clear path to profit by any means. 

At the end of the day its just a cyclical commodity price taker so its not an industry that attracts me. I made my mistake once, with TGR and although I still hold some of them I would be happier if I didn't!

I think there is much better places to invest capital.


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## galumay (17 September 2020)

Looks pretty grim from this article on the ABC, LINK


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## finicky (17 September 2020)

Fantasists with other peoples' money. $50m of tax payers' money spent already on roads to nowhere 'cept some drop-kick's fantasy. Guess they get paid well though. All approved by N.T minister who was a primary school teacher, never risked or managed a dollar in business in her life. Only need another $2 billion, lol


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## Chronos-Plutus (17 September 2020)

galumay said:


> Looks pretty grim from this article on the ABC, LINK




I have always found the aquaculture business interesting; something that has a facade of simplicity seems to be quite difficult to get up and running. CleanSeas (CSS) had huge problems for the best part of decade trying to get their aquaculture projects up and running.










__





						Share Price Information | Clean Seas
					






					www.cleanseas.com.au


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## galumay (17 September 2020)

Yep, similar with TGR, usually when you look through them, they report EBIDTA that is multiples of Cash Flow, it just never gets to the bottom line and CapEx is the main reason. Its not a pretty sector for investors!


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## Dona Ferentes (17 September 2020)

when SFG came out, wow what a story (sarcasm) . Greenfields  development up around Innisfail QLD, then NT Darwin, then Wyndham NW WA. Shipping little prawns between these centrally located spots. Bloke must have run a transport company, and/ or a private airline. And dependent on Govt money. Motherhood, who can argue against it?

And now revisiting the narrative, _quel surpris!_


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## Chronos-Plutus (17 September 2020)

galumay said:


> Yep, similar with TGR, usually when you look through them, they report EBIDTA that is multiples of Cash Flow, it just never gets to the bottom line and CapEx is the main reason. Its not a pretty sector for investors!




Generally speaking; I think we all need to be vigilant when analysing financial statements. Many creative accountants will shift operating cash flow into the investing cash flow bucket; so the EBITDA looks good in the income statement and it is reflected in the operating cash flows; but really the operating costs are hidden in the investing cash flows. Not saying this is the case with SFG because I haven't reviewed the financial statements; but I have noticed that it does happen.


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 September 2020)

It would appear the salmon have gone up the wrong river to spawn and are acomin back down again. 

I have always found commercial sea fishermen to be the salt of the earth, and not without a few skills in making a quid.


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## greggles (5 July 2021)

SFG was holding fairly steady for almost eight months between late October 2020 and late June 2021, range trading between 8c and 10c. Then management decided to raise $92.5 million via a placement at 5.5c... when SFG was trading at 8.7c. 

As can be expected, the share price immediately plummeted following the announcement. I don't hold SFG but if I was a shareholder I would be pretty frustrated by a capital raising at such a huge discount to the prevailing share price. I suspect they needed to offer the placement shares at such a large discount to get the CR fully subscribed.

The $92.5 million will be used to start construction on Project Sea Dragon in the Northern Territory. It is interesting to note that the capital raising was underpinned by largest shareholder and Seafarms Chairman, Mr Ian Trahar, who subscribed for $20 million under the placement and agreed to convert all loans approximating $15.2 million to equity on the same terms as the placement. That's an extraordinary financial commitment by one person to a company.

Anyway, with the share price currently at 5.4c, I will watch with interest as Project Sea Dragon finally starts becoming a reality.


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## barney (5 July 2021)

greggles said:


> Anyway, with the share price currently at 5.4c, I will watch with interest as Project Sea Dragon finally starts becoming a reality.




Thanks for the heads up Greg

Know nothing about SFG .... but assuming the business is a viable operation

The relative Share Price: Cash on hand: Market Cap ratio would have to be looking very attractive to "punters"

Not straight to the pool room, but definitely straight to the watch list


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## So_Cynical (5 July 2021)

greggles said:


> I suspect they needed to offer the placement shares at such a large discount to get the CR fully subscribed.
> 
> The $92.5 million will be used to start construction on Project Sea Dragon in the Northern Territory.



Sea Dragon is a massive project and they needed to find the money somewhere, i have always considered Seafarms 
to be the equivalent of a prospective miner with a large ore deposit but no money to pay for the mine and infrastructure.


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## greggles (5 July 2021)

So_Cynical said:


> Sea Dragon is a massive project and they needed to find the money somewhere, i have always considered Seafarms
> to be the equivalent of a prospective miner with a large ore deposit but no money to pay for the mine and infrastructure.




That's an interesting way to look at it. My view has always been if they can pull Project Sea Dragon off, and it produces the amount of seafood that they are hoping it can, I don't see how they can lose. You'll never go broke producing food, especially something that is in high demand like seafood. As long as you can run a lean operation and do it profitably.

The reality is that farmed seafood is the way of the future because we are over-fishing the oceans. The challenge is making it as profitable as possible while producing the best possible product for export markets.

There's a little voice in the back of my head telling me that the 5c mark might be a great long term entry point for SFG... if they can pull Project Sea Dragon off.


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## So_Cynical (5 July 2021)

greggles said:


> There's a little voice in the back of my head telling me that the 5c mark might be a great long term entry point for SFG... if they can pull Project Sea Dragon off.



The 92 Million cap raising basically guarantees that they can make a very large start on Sea Dragon, 92 million should see them producing something from the project, pretty low risk entry at this point i would think.


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## barney (5 July 2021)

greggles said:


> There's a little voice in the back of my head telling me that the 5c mark might be a great long term entry point for SFG... if they can pull Project Sea Dragon off.





So_Cynical said:


> pretty low risk entry at this point i would think.




Very much the way it appeared to me as well gents.  I think the "market" will also see the potential and the SP should react accordingly.


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## greggles (7 December 2021)

greggles said:


> There's a little voice in the back of my head telling me that the 5c mark might be a great long term entry point for SFG... *if they can pull Project Sea Dragon off*.




SFG have stumbled badly and Project Sea Dragon is now under review by the company. It doesn't sound good.



> Seafarms Group Limited (ASX: SFG) (Seafarms) announced today that newly appointed Executive Chairman Mick McMahon has initiated a review of Project Sea Dragon (PSD) which is expected to take several months.
> 
> As recently announced PSD Construction is underway and arrangements for debt and equity funding for the project were being addressed. It is now not considered feasible to finalise debt and equity funding arrangements before the end of the calendar year and this delay in funding arrangements will consequently lead to delays in the project schedule, while noting that planned wet season construction activity was limited in any event.
> 
> Mr McMahon said “Given these circumstances we will undertake a Project Review to consider impacts on the project schedule and overall economics, in order to be best placed to complete funding requirements in the new year.”




Reading between the lines, it seems that serious questions now surround the economic viability of PSD. I never took a position in SFG, but felt they had some potential long term. All of that is now under a cloud of uncertainty as we head into 2022. Very disappointing.


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## greggles (23 March 2022)

I got SFG completely wrong. The lack of communication from management regarding the future of PSD (and the company itself) has been very disappointing.

A great idea that has seemingly gone nowhere with millions squandered. A $600 million dollar market cap three and a half years ago reduced to $100 million market cap today.


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## divs4ever (23 March 2022)

have always had an aversion to aquaculture  ( especially  in saltwater/open-sea ) in my opinion too many things can go wrong 

 but these businesses struggling brings me no joy 

 you need a BIG ( potential ) upside  to be playing here ( IMO)


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## Dona Ferentes (31 March 2022)

_and another 40% drop today. Make the close at 1.5c _....

THe Sea Dragon project was "_*not viable in its current form*_".

Seafarms said the review identified a "_number of challenges, as well as opportunities to de-risk the project"_ and the key finding was the need to "_pilot and prove up_" the ability to successfully farm prawns at Legune.

It said the project in its current form would "_not generate acceptable financial returns_" and involved "_unacceptable risk_" such as biosecurity, environmental conditions, remoteness, and grow-out ponds that were "_unproven in Australia"_.


----------

