# What's this about coffee going up?



## wayneL (4 September 2006)

According to NewsCorp Coffe beans are on the up.



> A doubling of the price of raw coffee on international commodity markets is expected to drive up the cost within months and popular supermarket blends could cost up to 20 per cent more within the next year as local importers and roasters pass on the higher raw commodity price.
> 
> Instant coffee will feel the impact first, followed by gourmet or specialty blends and, eventually, major fresh coffee brands.
> 
> World prices have exploded in the past year due to poor harvests in Vietnam and growing demand from new consumers in India and China.




Well that's freakin' news to me. Check out the NYBOT coffee chart below (the first one) which happens to be arabica coffee (the good stuff)

Then I checked the LIFFE contract which is robusta coffee (the cheap stuff) and indeed it is on the up... but I didn't think anyone actually drank that robusta ####!

(I like my coffee  ]


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## professor_frink (4 September 2006)

> A doubling of the price of raw coffee on international commodity markets is expected to drive up the cost within months and popular supermarket blends could cost up to 20 per cent more within the next year as local importers and roasters pass on the higher raw commodity price.
> 
> Instant coffee will feel the impact first, followed by gourmet or specialty blends and, eventually, major fresh coffee brands.
> 
> World prices have exploded in the past year due to poor harvests in Vietnam and growing demand from new consumers in India and China.




NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

This commodities boom thingy has now gone too far. I don't care if the Chinese and Indian folk want to push up the price of everything else, but making coffee more expensive is just not on.

The world better not start messing with my morning caffeine fix.

There'll be big trouble I tells ya :shoot:


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## wayneL (5 September 2006)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
> 
> This commodities boom thingy has now gone too far. I don't care if the Chinese and Indian folk want to push up the price of everything else, but making coffee more expensive is just not on.
> 
> ...




WE must bring about a devastating deflationary depression to stop this madness. I agree professor, messing with coffee is just sacrelige...IT'S NOT ON.

Anyway, it appears to have been even worse in times past. Check out this monthly chart (liffe continuous) and look at the price potential of this sucker. <start toungue in cheek> Let's hope Bush et al are coffee addicts as well as oil addicts. Surely they will invade Brazil, Columbia, New Guinea and Kenya to secure supply.

Hang on! That makes the price go UP!  We're doomed  </end toungue in cheek>

Cheers


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## professor_frink (5 September 2006)

It would be interesting to compare that coffee chart with murder rates during those price spikes  



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> <start toungue in cheek> Let's hope Bush et al are coffee addicts as well as oil addicts. Surely they will invade Brazil, Columbia, New Guinea and Kenya to secure supply.
> 
> Hang on! That makes the price go UP!   We're doomed   </end toungue in cheek>




If it comes to that, I'll be in south america fighting the coffee stealing ******** with my Columbian brothers. And if we lose the war then I'll have to find a new stimulant to enjoy   What other drugs to the Columbians make that I could take?


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## wayneL (5 September 2006)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> It would be interesting to compare that coffee chart with murder rates during those price spikes
> 
> 
> 
> If it comes to that, I'll be in south america fighting the coffee stealing ******** with my Columbian brothers. And if we lose the war then I'll have to find a new stimulant to enjoy   What other drugs to the Columbians make that I could take?




LOLOL

Something like this?:


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## professor_frink (5 September 2006)

that should do the trick.


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## wayneL (6 September 2006)

Oh My Gawd!!!!

Professor!! It seems there some funnymentals behind the coffe price scare.

I've been browsing Ebay for some jungle greens and an AK47.

Tu hablo Espaňol?



> Next hot commodity? Arabica coffee beans
> 
> By CLAUDIA CARPENTER AND NGUYEN DIEU TU UYEN
> BLOOMBERG NEWS
> ...


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## professor_frink (6 September 2006)

From my basic understanding of commodities, during a boom after the metals rally, eventually it was going to filter through to the soft commodities. I just never even thought about coffee  

May be time to start trading coffee futures so I can offset the higher cost of my morning coffee  



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> I've been browsing Ebay for some jungle greens and an AK47.




Very good. Let the training begin


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## wayneL (13 April 2007)

Could be a run up in coffee as weather risk in the growing areas is starting to be priced in.



> Coffee futures have been quiet of late, as the market continues to digest the large exports out of Vietnam and Brazil, which are keeping current supplies ample. Heading into winter in the southern hemisphere, however, many traders are expecting Coffee prices to start pricing a "weather risk premium" into the market, especially with production expected to be light due the cyclical nature of Coffee. The International Coffee Organization has lowered its estimate for the 2006-07 crop to 120.5 million bags, down 1.5 million bags from the previous estimate. Consumption estimates were also raised to 120 million bags in 2007, up nearly 3 million bags. This puts great pressure on Brazil to have favorable weather conditions the next few months to prevent a possible supply deficit later this year.



1st chart is July Arabica
2nd chart is weekly continuous Arabica
3rd chart is July Robusta


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## CanOz (16 April 2007)

Unfortunately I've missed the opportunity this time on the Mini. Nice retracement and reversal.


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## wayneL (16 April 2007)

CanOz said:


> Unfortunately I've missed the opportunity this time on the Mini. Nice retracement and reversal.



Be happy, it just took a $30 hit on the NYBOT Arabica open (it was whacked 2% on opening)


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## CanOz (16 April 2007)

wayneL said:


> Be happy, it just took a $30 hit on the NYBOT Arabica open (it was whacked 2% on opening)




Yeah, wow, i've been away for a while and crude took a hit too, are these shakeouts Wayne?

Cheers,


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## wayneL (16 April 2007)

CanOz said:


> Yeah, wow, i've been away for a while and crude took a hit too, are these shakeouts Wayne?
> 
> Cheers,



Dunno, can't see any news in relation to these.

Monday opens


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