# AGO - Atlas Iron



## weston (23 May 2007)

I can not find a thread for ago, it has few  tenements in pilbara region, and it expects production of 1m tons DSO in March 2008. Important it targets exploration of 1billion to 1.5billion magnetite ore in Pardoo.Its  DSO prospect in Abydos has huge potential. The only concern to me is margin low, they expect $10 to $18 for initial production, anyone hold it?


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## kevin eleven (25 May 2007)

up 12% today on good volume 

25th May
PILBARA iron ore play Atlas Iron is considering listing its magnetite interests on the Hong Kong stock exchange in an attempt to realise greater value for the asset

The hematite operation is expected to produce between 1 million and 3 million tonnes of ore a year for around seven years, with the ore set to be trucked from the mine to Port Hedland along 75km of sealed highway.

However, the magnetite potential of Pardoo could dwarf the hematite, with some observers tipping magnetite resources of the project to reach in excess of 1 billion tonnes.

Flanagan said the listing of the Atlas subsidiary that holds the magnetite rights in Hong Kong could help facilitate investment in the project from Chinese steel mills, which have helped drive much of the activity in the Australian iron ore market.


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## Lachlan6 (27 May 2007)

Technicals look great. Going to enter on Monday around market. Broken out of resistance of $0.7 last week on nice volume, and it is now ready for a strong run higher. OBV is spot on showing strong buying support, whilst the fall back in 06 corresponded to the 50% fibonacci level nicely. This is a strong BUY in my opinion on the technicals.


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## Dutchy3 (2 June 2007)

Missed this one ... getting slack ...

Agree with the previous posters this is one great looking chart. STOP would need to be around the 55 mark for me so entry risk too high ... all the same this could be 2.00+ within months ....


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## henry vanderhave (14 June 2007)

intersting stock.Noticed today on news page that loading space for product at harbour to be provided by fortescue and fortescue will facilitate marketing of there potentially i bill tonnesof product.Seems to me,my view only, next step could be fmg jv or swallowed up by fmg.jonas and the whale.I will enter this stock soon,first must free up some capital,thing is all ones im in are looking good to.This is the right sort of dilemma to be in.Keep the faith,be strong!


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## BraceFace (20 June 2007)

Henry, I hope you bought in.

This one is going ballistic.

I was alerted to this AGO by a friend when it was in the mid 50c range.
At that time (just a couple of months ago) the charting fundamentals looked pretty sweet.

I decided to take punt on it at 59c, my friend did not.
He is spewing.

Question is (as always) - when will it run out of legs? 
I'd love to hear the opinions of the iron ore experts out there - is this up and comer the next big player in the mineral boom or just another speccie that will blow up in our face?


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## BraceFace (22 June 2007)

Wow, up another 12% today.
Perhaps someone could post a chart here and then do the same on the "Outstanding Breakouts" thread.
I'm surprised there are not very many people interested in this one.
No-one seems to be posting, so I assume no-one follows this.

Nearly a Triple bagger for me. Should have bought more at 59c.


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## stefoid (29 June 2007)

BraceFace said:


> Wow, up another 12% today.
> Perhaps someone could post a chart here and then do the same on the "Outstanding Breakouts" thread.
> I'm surprised there are not very many people interested in this one.
> No-one seems to be posting, so I assume no-one follows this.
> ...




they have a bagload of magnetite.  just mind boggling amounts.  

the next announcement should be about tying in with a chinese partner to develop it, and then you saw what happened with MMX


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## Kremmen (9 July 2007)

AGO were featured, along with BHP and RIO, in a 60 Minutes story this evening on the mining boom in WA. I wonder if that will increase the interest in the stock?


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## cmh888 (9 July 2007)

It's on my watch list for today. There were some encouraging announcements throughout April/May/June which have pushed the price up very quickly. It's another one of those companies though that you have to ask if the run will keep going/when will it settle. 

I know they plan to be mining within months but funding could be an issue. Current market cap is $206,000,000. Cash in bank is only $330,000, with $19mil in deposits. Currently there is no infrastructure to support the proposed mining site, and (as outlined on last night's report) one series of blasting can cost up to half a million!. There are currently 90,000,000 shares outstanding which may fund operations??? I'm a bit cautious about this one as compared to other iron ore juniors it may be overpriced already.

I think last night's media may give it a little push today though!


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## cmh888 (9 July 2007)

Have just had a look at market depth pre-open. Buy range $1.81 - $1.53 (Friday close was $1.50). People love 60 minutes don't they!


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## stefoid (9 July 2007)

Im happy to sell to 60 minutes watchers at this point.

Well see when to buy back in once this TV inspired rush drips off.


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## allan998 (2 August 2007)

*AGO*

Does anybody know the reason behind  the AGO suspension for the last 3 days?


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## BraceFace (3 August 2007)

Nothing on the ASX website to suggest what the suspension is about - just an impending announcement.
Probably hasn't been a bad time to be "suspended"!

Perhaps something to do with it's transport deal with Fortescue....

Let's just hope it's good news - god knows investors could do with some lately.


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## badmarty (3 August 2007)

They were supposed to put out an announcment yesterday but instead they got suspended, how long can this go on for, I mean when will this announcment be released?


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## TheRage (3 August 2007)

Here's some food for thought. The day before being suspended 800,000 options were exercised. Coincidence maybe.


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## Ken (10 August 2007)

a lot of investors out of the market at the moment.

how does AGO really stack up as an iron ore play?

you look at the 60 minutes clip, would all exploration companies have thought so of confidence.

you would want to be able to deliver.

Niagra mining did the same thing last year when it was around 30 cents....  there wasnt the same interest back then in iron ore as there is now so it would seem.

Is AGO the real deal, that is the question.

How does there resource compare to FMG?

is it just a drop in the ocean resource size?


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## 1750 (11 October 2007)

I got in late with AGO at around $1.33..... still making happy profits though
Does anyone have any thoughts on when this upward rush is going to stop? is the current $2.20 odd over priced?


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## KIWIKARLOS (16 October 2007)

well more good news out , more DSO and more drilling to come with potential resource upgrades. Could be a good time to buy up today on overall market weakness if the ASX is down.


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## Sean K (16 October 2007)

Iron is just going sick atm. Are the valuations getting lofty? Is it just trading behaviour driving these prices up? Who cares I suppose if you are making money out of it. I expect this ann will provide more support in this environment..


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## KIWIKARLOS (16 October 2007)

I think the iron ore spec is driving up prices but at the end of the day its the potential producers who can and will be up and mining within the next couple years that will be the winners. Thats why i like AGO they have DSO and magnetite right smack bang in the middle of pilbara near existing infrastructure. Not trying to ramp but realistically its these short term potential producers that will be getting the attention from larger players eg. MMX, BHP and RIO.


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## adobee (16 October 2007)

I have held AGO for about six months (I actually thought I had sold it off when the market dropped but I realised I hadnt when I got the AGM notice) this has been a quiet producer no huge announcements and increases but nice small increases bringing it to a substanial profit for me.. 

I bought AGO with the intention of getting into a miner who will come into production in the near future and attract attention..


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## KIWIKARLOS (16 October 2007)

Yeah I got in a few days ago at 2.20 and already on nice profit. I too was looking for near future producers with DSO. When I saw the mention of AGO in regards to the current takeover by Murchinson I couldn't resist. I can't see the current trend reversing anytime soon. Especially with the expected announcements due to keep rolling in.


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## dogwithflees1983 (16 October 2007)

The West Australian had AGO as a speculative buy in today's paper. At $2.50 its hardly a what i would consider a speccy buy, more like a sure thing!


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## Sean K (16 October 2007)

dogwithflees1983 said:


> The West Australian had AGO as a speculative buy in today's paper. At $2.50 its hardly a what i would consider a speccy buy, more like a sure thing!



Doggie, please expand on why stocks are 'sure things' in the future. Ramp otherwise. See ASF posting policies for more guidance. Thanks, kennas


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## dogwithflees1983 (16 October 2007)

mate that comment was a bit tongue in check, apologise if you took it as ramping! I am well aware of the AFS rules, cheers.


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## wipz (16 October 2007)

I agree with you dogwithflees, this stock is a solid performer, hardly what i'd consider to be a specky buy.  Going from strength to strength as more brokers start to cover this gem.  They commence mining oct 08 and will be a major player by 2012.  Killing myself didnt get in at earlier.


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## michael_selway (16 October 2007)

KIWIKARLOS said:


> I think the iron ore spec is driving up prices but at the end of the day its the potential producers who can and will be up and mining within the next couple years that will be the winners. Thats why i like AGO they have DSO and magnetite right smack bang in the middle of pilbara near existing infrastructure. Not trying to ramp but realistically its these short term potential producers that will be getting the attention from larger players eg. MMX, BHP and RIO.




Is it true that AGO only has a 4.5 yr mine life?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -13.9 10.3 19.4 -- 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 -- *



> Pardoo has a JORC Resource of 10.5mt @ 57.1% Fe. Scoping study figures for Pardoo DSO indicate robust economics from a 4.5 year mine life with operating margins up to $21/tonne and significant room for expansion based on current prices. Located adjacent to road infrastructure and close (75km) to port facilities. No offtake agreements announced at present.




http://www.atlasiron.com.au/reports/rr071009.pdf

thx

MS


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## Ken (16 October 2007)

Their audio presentation on BRR.com.au is the best piece of propaganda ever.

It is really inspiring. They have done a great job of selling the story.

Management deserves massive pats on the back.


For what AGO have they have perfected the sale of the company after the smart money is in.

Its a great story.

Worth a listen and asking yourself..

They told me they were the real deal 12 months ago....


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## wipz (16 October 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Is it true that AGO only has a 4.5 yr mine life?




This is true for a _BASE CASE_ for the Pardoo site, which is 10mt.  However  it is stated in that same research paper that 25mt @ 55% fe may be present, which would boost mine life to over double, so we are talking 9-10 years.  Note that these values are non-JORC and we all look forward to further testing to consolidate size and grades to determine the true mine life.  I believe that what they are trying to say is 4.5yrs is the worst case senario. 

However that is not where AGO's value is at.  Its at its Ridleys Magnetite JORC compliant 853mt @ 37.2% fe which has a 25 yr mine life.

Cheers


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## Sean K (16 October 2007)

dogwithflees1983 said:


> mate that comment was a bit tongue in check, apologise if you took it as ramping! I am well aware of the AFS rules, cheers.



Thanks dwf. Perhaps put a smilie with a wink as well next time so I don't get confused. thanks,


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## michael_selway (17 October 2007)

wipz said:


> This is true for a _BASE CASE_ for the Pardoo site, which is 10mt.  However  it is stated in that same research paper that 25mt @ 55% fe may be present, which would boost mine life to over double, so we are talking 9-10 years.  Note that these values are non-JORC and we all look forward to further testing to consolidate size and grades to determine the true mine life.  I believe that what they are trying to say is 4.5yrs is the worst case senario.
> 
> However that is not where AGO's value is at.  Its at its Ridleys Magnetite JORC compliant 853mt @ 37.2% fe which has a 25 yr mine life.
> 
> Cheers




Oh ic what you mean, also maybe even a merger with FMG?

"Ridleys Magnetite JORC resource of 853mt @ 37% Fe. 100% owned by AGO with no offtake or joint venture partner. Scoping study indicates robust economics and long mine life. Pre-feasibility studies have commenced with results due in mid-2008.

MoU with FMG to supply port facilities and railway access infrastructure on
commencement of mining for both Abydos (Rail and Port facilities) and Pardoo
(Port facilities only)"

thx

MS


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## adobee (6 November 2007)

dogwithflees1983 said:


> The West Australian had AGO as a speculative buy in today's paper. At $2.50 its hardly a what i would consider a speccy buy, more like a sure thing!




Well trading around $2.30 today as sure as my pick in the Melb cup..
anyway seems to do well for a while when ever mentioned in the media..


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## habs (6 November 2007)

so what do others think of this stock.... 
1 million tonnes starting oct next year, ramping up to 3 mill the year after, then when abydos comes on up to 6 million by say 2010, then the 10mill/year magnatite ridley resource...

if iron ore prices go up again, 25%, there are some significant amounts of money to be made per tonne..(not that there arent already!) of 25-30$ a tonne i believe... but i dont know... i still see this stock as hugely undervalued... maybe that will change when they start producing next october... even at 2-3$ a share, this thing could be much higher in 2-3 years time... they are doing a hell of alot better than many other iron ore companys atm in terms of getting things into production.


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## adobee (12 November 2007)

Atlas in a trading halt ...  Which could be good considering the market will probably take a hit today.. 

I wonder what is coming, I noticed Merryl Lynch sold some of there stake last week but only a small portion..
Hopefully some good news..


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## sam76 (12 November 2007)

adobee said:


> Atlas in a trading halt ...  Which could be good considering the market will probably take a hit today..
> 
> I wonder what is coming, I noticed Merryl Lynch sold some of there stake last week but only a small portion..
> Hopefully some good news..






Atlas Iron trading halt; to release resource upgrade
09:22, Monday, November 12, 2007

(taken from NAB online trading)


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## michael_selway (12 November 2007)

sam76 said:


> Atlas Iron trading halt; to release resource upgrade
> 09:22, Monday, November 12, 2007
> 
> (taken from NAB online trading)




Hi not bad

PARDOO DSO RESOURCE INCREASED BY 36% FROM 10.5 TO 14.3MT
NEW DSO DRILLING RESULTS HIGHLIGHT RESOURCE POTENTIAL AT RACHAEL
NEW DSO DRILLING RESULTS HIGHLIGHT RESOURCE POTENTIAL ON OLIVIA TREND
TOTAL DSO RESOURCES - ALL PROJECTS NOW AT 23MT

thx

MS


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## adobee (10 December 2007)

dogwithflees1983 said:


> The West Australian had AGO as a speculative buy in today's paper. At $2.50 its hardly a what i would consider a speccy buy, more like a sure thing!




Good call now trading at $2.06

not so much of a sure thing at the moment especially if you bought at $2.50 the journalist who wrote the article should be fired !


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## adobee (13 December 2007)

Good movement in AGO at around 10% increase today after dropping for the past couple of weeks.. hope to see some sort of upward trend coming back..


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## dogwithflees1983 (13 December 2007)

"Good call now trading at $2.06"

"not so much of a sure thing at the moment especially if you bought at $2.50 the journalist who wrote the article should be fired !"

Abdoee i hope u were joking !! 

AGO was trading well below its potential at $2 mark. With the increase expected in iron ore prices over the next 6-12mnths i can only see bigger & brighter things for AGO shareholders.


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## habs (13 December 2007)

Great to see this finally trading back up towards where it should be, the last month and a half has been a bit tough! Even positive announcements didnt get this thing moving...but today was great, I must say, over the past 6 weeks I was mighty impressed how it held at $2, plenty of support at that level... not sure what triggered today.. no news from what I can see..


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## adobee (17 December 2007)

PARDOO DSO PROJECT PUBLIC ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW
RELEASED

*KEY HIGHLIGHTS*
PROJECT ENVIRONMENTAL APPROVALS ON TRACK
ATLAS POSITIONED TO DELIVER ON OCTOBER 2008 ORE DELIVERY DATE
COMMITMENT TO RESPONSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PARDOO PROJECT


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## adobee (14 January 2008)

Big volume on AGO this morning 4million already by 1pm .. I cant really tell if it is just people jumping out and back in with this mornings drop or some new interest in the company..  In the past there has only been strong volume prior to a big run..


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## adobee (15 January 2008)

Ended up with 7 million traded yesterday.. and announcement out today :

Atlas Iron Limited (ASX: AGO) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an option agreement to acquire the iron ore rights to 7 Pilbara tenements (E45/2287, 2268, 2294, 2288, 2244, 2346 & 2312 as outlined on the attached Tenement Location Plan), from Haddington Resources Limited (ASX: HDN).

These tenements are proximal to good infrastructure and prospective for iron ore” commented Atlas Managing Director, David Flanagan. “We are an active explorer, *we look forward to getting on the ground, drilling some holes *and building on our recent success on adjacent tenements at Abydos” he added.


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## adobee (30 January 2008)

*DSO Reserve Summary -

Indicated resource increase by 40%
Pardoo resource increase by 23%
On Target to Ship In Oct 2008*

Well I hope this puts AGO back on track to plus $2


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## michael_selway (30 January 2008)

adobee said:


> *DSO Reserve Summary -
> 
> Indicated resource increase by 40%
> Pardoo resource increase by 23%
> ...




I wonder what the expected mine life now would be

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -13.9 -2.9 16.2 66.7 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0* 

thx

MS


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## AussiePaul72 (2 February 2008)

G'day All,
My first post in this thread but have looked at AGO on and off over the last 12 months. I figured i had missed the boat originally when it climbed rapidly up well over $2 and didn't seem be ever coming down again! 
I hadn't really looked at it recently but read the quarterly the other day and with production on target for October and much upside in new projects aswell, I couldn't help but buy a piece on Friday at $1.75 (seemed to be good value). I did some fast research and IMO it ticked all the right boxes. 2008 seems to be shaping up to be a highly fluctuating year on the markets and as a result i think AGO has lots of potential as we approach first iron ore production in October (in my opinion should at the very least offer some stability to the SP).
At present, to be coming off a dip in the SP and having total market depth showing twice as many buyers as sellers is very encouraging and suggests that the market thinks it is undervalued at current prices. That's my theory anyway! DYOR


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## kevin eleven (7 February 2008)

good to see in trading halt. their recent february presentation paints a very positive picture. interesting 30 parties looking to partner up on their 'massive' magnetite project.  be nice if the announcement is the chinese partnering in.


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## agro (7 February 2008)

hi all.. here's what i am tipping:

- substantial holder (possibly Chinese steel company, look at MGX what occurred recently)

- takeover (either a direct takeover from the likes of GBG or MGX both of which have 0 debt and looking for acquisitions)

- takeover of another company (GNL a small explorer suggested it had been approached?)

- Shipping or Discovery result


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## adobee (8 February 2008)

Back over $2 this morning lets hope it can hold up ..
New tenements in Pilbara.. hot locations..  perhaps some good reserve and discover announcements to come.. AGO the next FMG..
I wouldnt be surprised if they come up in an agreement with FMG on the rail line.. 


ATLAS ACQUIRES IRON ORE RIGHTS TO 774 SQKM OF PILBARA TENEMENTS FROM
TALISON
Atlas Iron Limited (ASX: AGO) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement to
acquire the iron ore rights to 10 Pilbara tenements (as outlined on the attached Tenement
Location Plan), from Talison Minerals Pty Ltd (Talison).
Summary of the Agreement
1. AGO acquires 100% of the Fe rights in exchange for payment of $4,000,000 to Talison in
AGO shares upon execution of a formal agreement, which needs to be executed by 30 June
2008 or such later date agreed by both parties.
2. Talison retains rights to other minerals and is entitled to a 0.5% Revenue Based Royalty in
the event that Atlas develops an iron ore resource in excess of 5MT.
The tenements are between 75 and 160 kilometres from Port Hedland, less than 60 kilometres
from the FMG and BHPB railways and less than 60 kilometres from the Great Northern Highway.
Some of these tenements adjoin the company’s Abydos project.
"This acquisition adds to Atlas’ Pilbara interests and provides us with the opportunity to apply our
iron ore exploration expertise on an additional 10 tenements in a world class iron ore province”
commented Atlas Managing Director, David Flanagan “These tenements are very prospective for
iron ore and we look forward to doing a thorough examination of the iron ore potential on these
tenements” he added
For further information please contact
David Flanagan,
Managing Director
Tel: (08) 9476 7900


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## adobee (25 March 2008)

From todays announcement -

Atlas previously reported it’s combined Pilbara tenements were prospective for a total of 30 to 40 million tonnes of Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) grading 57 to 60% Fe which was sufficient to support a startup operation of 6 million tonnes per annum. The revision to an exploration target of 120 to 180
million tonnes grading 57 to 60% Fe represents a fourfold increase and a major growth opportunity for the Company.


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## Sean K (25 March 2008)

adobee said:


> From todays announcement -
> 
> Atlas previously reported it’s combined Pilbara tenements were prospective for a total of 30 to 40 million tonnes of Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) grading 57 to 60% Fe which was sufficient to support a startup operation of 6 million tonnes per annum. The revision to an exploration target of 120 to 180 million tonnes grading 57 to 60% Fe represents a fourfold increase and a major growth opportunity for the Company.



Who knows what it will do but it's a _target_, based on _rock chips_. There's much more to look at IMO on whether this is a good ann or not. Very early days. 



> Recent geological mapping and surface sampling has highlighted exploration targets with combined potential for 120 to 180 million tonnes of iron ore grading 57 to 60% Fe.




It's also over various 'deposits'. Would have been good for them to provide a map highlighting these 'potential' deposits. Has that been presented before?


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## adobee (26 March 2008)

Compared to other news and annoucements I have been getting at the moment this sounds pretty positive to me..


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## dogwithflees1983 (1 April 2008)

BUY recommendation in the West Australian today:

"DJ Carmichael says AGO remains a buy after a recent upgrade for its tenements in the Pilbara and has set a $3.06 price target..."

Big upside then considering it is currently trading around the low $2 mark !


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## adobee (7 April 2008)

A few good annoucements out this morning.. Looks positive as Atlas takes a substanial stake in WRK. I hope to see some strong increases as we get closer to the prefeasibilty completition, increase resource estimates, and further drilling results via WRK.. 

Cut from the announcement:

Emerging iron ore explorer Warwick Resources Limited (ASX:WRK) today announced that it has entered into a
strategic alliance with Atlas Iron Ltd (Atlas) (ASX:AGO) for the exploration and development of its iron ore
projects near Newman in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.

Under the terms of the agreement, Atlas will acquire a 19.9% stake in Warwick Resources through a share
placement and the acquisition of existing shares at a price of 23 cents per share.


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## adobee (7 April 2008)

dogwithflees1983 said:


> BUY recommendation in the West Australian today:
> 
> "DJ Carmichael says AGO remains a buy after a recent upgrade for its tenements in the Pilbara and has set a $3.06 price target..."
> 
> Big upside then considering it is currently trading around the low $2 mark !




It was $2.80 not long ago and being quoted as a low risk with big upside.. aside from the market downturn there have been no real negatives from the company since then.. I think we may see this surpassed prior to the prefeasibility coming out.


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## adobee (22 April 2008)

ATLAS TO RAISE $100 MILLION TO ACCELERATE GROWTH OF
PILBARA IRON ORE BUSINESS
Atlas Iron Limited (ASX: AGO) (“Atlas” or “the Company”) is pleased to advise that the Company has resolved to raise up to $100 million through the issue of up to 50 million ordinary shares at an issue price of $2.00 per share to clients of Hartleys Limited and existing major shareholders. The capital raising will allow Atlas to accelerate growth of its Pilbara iron ore business where Atlas is on track for commencement of production in August this year and production is targeted to ramp-up to 12Mtpa of Pilbara DSO by 2012. Funds raised will also be applied to ongoing exploration across
the Company’s iron ore projects, where drill rigs are currently operating and will be for the remainder of this year.
Atlas’ Managing Director, David Flanagan stated “We are delighted with the quality of new international and domestic institutional investors we have introduced to the share register through the placement following an international roadshow facilitated by our corporate adviser Hartleys Limited
that saw Atlas presenting to the world’s preeminent mining investment funds. Atlas is also very pleased with the support received from our major  hareholders. The success of the placement, which was very heavily oversubscribed, will strongly grow the pace of development of Atlas’ Pilbara iron ore business.”
The placement in Atlas will be made in two tranches. The allotment of up to 30 million Tranche 1 shares, which is not subject to shareholder approval and falls within the Company’s ASX Listing Rule 7.1 15% placement capacity, will be issued in approximately 10 days of this announcement. The allotment of up to 20 million Tranche 2 shares will be issued subject to shareholder approval at a meeting of shareholders currently scheduled for 23 May 2008.


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## adobee (22 April 2008)

Big BUY demand 1,400,000 compare to SELLs of  146,700
looks like the 2.30s may be wiped out very shortly !


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## adobee (28 April 2008)

I am surprised no one else on this forum is following AGO .. another strong day and buyers still piling up..  With AGO looking to speed up their production and the market positive to them raising more money to do this and take over other companies and reserves I see this as a potential FMG.. Go AGO!


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## tigerboi (28 April 2008)

adobee said:


> I am surprised no one else on this forum is following AGO .. another strong day and buyers still piling up.. With AGO looking to speed up their production and the market positive to them raising more money to do this and take over other companies and reserves I see this as a potential FMG.. Go AGO!




Im hearing you mate, i watch AGO pretty carefully as i got BMY wedged in between AGO & BHP up there at pardoo......tb


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## dogwithflees1983 (28 April 2008)

Yep I hold BMY too, lets hope that goes as nicely as AGO!!

Atlas Iron is a little gem, and it had yet another speculative buy recomendation in the Sunday Times...by DJ Carmichael. Saying how its was going to become the fourth largest iron ore producer.


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## tigerboi (28 April 2008)

dogwithflees1983 said:


> Yep I hold BMY too, lets hope that goes as nicely as AGO!!
> 
> Atlas Iron is a little gem, and it had yet another speculative buy recomendation in the Sunday Times...by DJ Carmichael. Saying how its was going to become the fourth largest iron ore producer.




Mate i know what i prefer...BMY...,AGO recently paid 4m cash for tenements,BMY paid...ready...0.0000,i like the area they have in between those 2 AGO/BHP,drilling starts soon at goldsworthy,once the wests tigers have won the grand final i will have a look see at BMY in the meantime ive been looking to grab as many oppies as i can...tb


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## michael_selway (28 April 2008)

adobee said:


> I am surprised no one else on this forum is following AGO .. another strong day and buyers still piling up..  With AGO looking to speed up their production and the market positive to them raising more money to do this and take over other companies and reserves I see this as a potential FMG.. Go AGO!




Hi "potential FMG" in what regards may I ask?

*AGO - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -13.9 -2.9 16.2 66.7 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FMG - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -2.6 -3.0 31.0 73.6 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0*

12Mtpa vs 200Mtpa max forecast production

Thanks

MS


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## adobee (29 April 2008)

buyers are outstripping sellers now.. another 12% so far this morning.. If the market turns around a bit this afternoon we might see an all time high round 2.85 ...  I have to think there is some new news coming out I cant see that we can get a 30% increase for a capital raising!


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## BigJohnny (29 April 2008)

Hi All,

Does anyone have access to Merrill Lynch research sent out today, they have initiated a price target of $6.00 and $10 in three years.

Thanx


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## wipz (29 April 2008)

BigJohnny said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Does anyone have access to Merrill Lynch research sent out today, they have initiated a price target of $6.00 and $10 in three years.
> 
> Thanx




Here it is mate, looks very good.
http://www.ml.com.au/yourdaily/content/pdf/10718640.pdf

Interesting to see where the SP goes in the short term due to the capital raising in June. Any thoughts on this?


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## dogwithflees1983 (29 April 2008)

Great work Wipz !! Sure does make for some very interesting reading...The future does indeed look very bright for AGO. Long term hold on this one!


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## wipz (29 April 2008)

dogwithflees1983 said:


> Great work Wipz !! Sure does make for some very interesting reading...The future does indeed look very bright for AGO. Long term hold on this one!




It is indeed a long term hold, however for someone looking to enter the stock for the first time, when would be the best time considering the current placement in June? Would one expect AGO to pull back leading up and during early June when the placement is expected to go through?
I want to get in, but i dont want to pay up at the current prices.
Any thoughts?


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## adobee (29 April 2008)

wipz said:


> It is indeed a long term hold, however for someone looking to enter the stock for the first time, when would be the best time considering the current placement in June? Would one expect AGO to pull back leading up and during early June when the placement is expected to go through?
> I want to get in, but i dont want to pay up at the current prices.
> Any thoughts?





What is the general sentement on placements..? I would have thought that having been announced people would already be factoring it into the current share price ?


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## adobee (29 April 2008)

BREAK OUT ALERT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WHOA CURRENTLY HIGH $3.05 GO BABY GO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## adobee (29 April 2008)

Sellers are getting taken out fast .. was some slight resistance with 120k shares at 3.10 ... bang see you later!!

Oh my.. should I be doing some profit taking!!!?!??? 
I am feeling greedy now but did want to hold this long term!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2008)

wow and to think they recently did a placement at $2, up over 50% from that placement 

Surely there has been some takeover offer, why the heck else would it race up 50% in a few days? 

Maybe the placement was done to a Chinese group who are buying more on mkt?

I'm just clutching at straws I guess, whatever the cause I am watching with interest

hmm speeding ticket lets see ...........


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## adobee (29 April 2008)

Its trading status has just gone to *"pre-open"*

I dont know whats going on but its off the hook! I just hope the price doesnt just fall back down as I have been greedy and held on ...


And now back to "Normal" again ... ?


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## treefrog (29 April 2008)

adobee said:


> Sellers are getting taken out fast .. was some slight resistance with 120k shares at 3.10 ... bang see you later!!
> 
> Oh my.. should I be doing some profit taking!!!?!???
> I am feeling greedy now but did want to hold this long term!




agree ad, have to consider cashing out for rise like this.
my last buy at 2.06 5 weeks ago: today offering 50% return in 5 weeks - wonder if FMG did that in its run - yep, x4 appears, may06,jun06,may07,sep07 - all too easy!


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## SM Junkie (30 April 2008)

What a day yesterday.  Hope you all enjoyed it as much as I did.  Just looking at the orders in the system for this morning and its looking good,  here is hoping for another excellent day for Atlas.


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## adobee (30 April 2008)

Has had a fair bit of media coverage now with articles saying things like merryl lynch takes first look at ago and says buy buy buy price with potential of 150% return etc.. 

Looks like 2mill stacked up with minimal sellers.. 
Lets hope continues like this all day - we might see their $6 target sooner than expected !!


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## adobee (2 May 2008)

Looks like another great day for AGO. ..  Increase since 29th April when the ML report came out is 30% ..  I am thinking about topping up further as more people jump on with the mind set they need to get in before $6 and that it doesnt look like retracing ..


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## dogwithflees1983 (2 May 2008)

Yeah totally agree with you Abodee...AGO is travelling along very nicely indeed. Just checked commsec and theres 2.4m buy depth compared to 157k sell depth! And too think that this jump all seems to be on the back of ML's report is amazing.


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## doctorj (2 May 2008)

Those keen to get leverage to AGO should take a squizz at the last few posts in the MPJ thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4566


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## adobee (2 May 2008)

doctorj said:


> Those keen to get leverage to AGO should take a squizz at the last few posts in the MPJ thread.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4566




I see your point here.. I am looking at a similar point of view on lrf linq as they have 8% of AGO .. how do you calculate the multiple increase if you dont know wht there purchase price on AGO or options are ? How do you get this info ?


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## Superfly (3 May 2008)

Yep... as a holder of MPJ ....makes watching AGO's rise much more enjoyable


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## adobee (5 May 2008)

Superfly said:


> Yep... as a holder of MPJ ....makes watching AGO's rise much more enjoyable




How much AGO does MPJ own ?? I am trying to find out, cant see any info in this regard on there website or AGOs  ?

I know LRF has 18,428,851 shares x $3.70
= $68,186,748


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## Superfly (5 May 2008)

MPJ = 1,625,000 AGO ...as recorded in last Q report.


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## Markcoinoz (5 May 2008)

Hunter Hall became a substantial holder in AGO.

5.41% of the company.  14,118,296 shares.

They have been accumulating since the 7th August 2007.

Looking very promising.

Cheers markcoinoz


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## imajica (5 May 2008)

adobee said:


> How much AGO does MPJ own ?? I am trying to find out, cant see any info in this regard on there website or AGOs  ?
> 
> I know LRF has 18,428,851 shares x $3.70
> = $68,186,748




LRF's stake is now worth $70,398,210

The fund has made tens of millions in profit over the last few weeks!


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## doctorj (5 May 2008)

adobee said:


> How much AGO does MPJ own ?? I am trying to find out, cant see any info in this regard on there website or AGOs ?



MPJ doesn't own quite as much as LRF

MPJ owns 1,625,000 shares of AGO ($6.21m worth) - the trick is that MPJ's market cap is $12.8m and its net tangible assets (consistenting primarily of cash and other companies listed on ASX/TSX/AIM) is $21.72m.

All the numbers can be picked up from the latest quarterly.  Valuations come with no guarantees and were last updated a few minutes ago


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## adobee (6 May 2008)

Okay well I have my fingers crossed AGO keeps going up and doesnt come back down as I am now a proud owner of AGO MPJ and LRF ..
The guys involved in the recent capital rasing but be very happy ! I wonder if any have anything to do with merril lynch ?


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## chrissyoscar (6 May 2008)

adobee said:


> Okay well I have my fingers crossed AGO keeps going up and doesnt come back down as I am now a proud owner of AGO MPJ and LRF ..
> The guys involved in the recent capital rasing but be very happy ! I wonder if any have anything to do with merril lynch ?




Me to, I got some on Thursday more on Friday took another dip on Monday and thought why not so I got a few more today.
All up I've averaged a price of $3.528 which isn't to bad i don't think.
I thought about getting some MPJ shares as well but decided not to, something about getting 160,000 odd shares for a $1000 outlay scares me.
Call me green but for now AGO is about as risky as I want to be.


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## treefrog (6 May 2008)

chrissyoscar said:


> Me to, I got some on Thursday more on Friday took another dip on Monday and thought why not so I got a few more today.
> All up I've averaged a price of $3.528 which isn't to bad i don't think.
> I thought about getting some MPJ shares as well but decided not to, something about getting 160,000 odd shares for a $1000 outlay scares me.
> Call me green but for now AGO is about as risky as I want to be.




you need to thing that through a bit more chriss - on that basis it means if AGO had a 100:1 split (but otherwise the same) and were 3.5 cents you wouldn't have invested because you would have had too many shares for you $1000??


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## chrissyoscar (7 May 2008)

treefrog said:


> you need to thing that through a bit more chriss - on that basis it means if AGO had a 100:1 split (but otherwise the same) and were 3.5 cents you wouldn't have invested because you would have had too many shares for you $1000??




Yes you're right and based on the current resource boom we're having and with all the stock MPJ has shares in it should and probably will start to move upwards and it'll probably do it very soon.
It's just that when you see a share price at .07 and you don't understand the market you tend to avoid it.
The good news is for those that do understand the market they get in early and make the money.
I might put a little on it and see..


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## adobee (7 May 2008)

chrissyoscar said:


> Yes you're right and based on the current resource boom we're having and with all the stock MPJ has shares in it should and probably will start to move upwards and it'll probably do it very soon.
> It's just that when you see a share price at .07 and you don't understand the market you tend to avoid it.
> The good news is for those that do understand the market they get in early and make the money.
> I might put a little on it and see..




I have to say I was a bit skepitcal of MPJ also.. I bought a small parcel.. but look at it as there is an opportunity for quick big gains or lossess more so than LRF or AGO..  I also noted that the other two have comsec margin loan options compared to MPJ which I expect means combank feels a bit more secure with the others also ..?

In regard to AGO I am a bit worried about the profit taking taking place.. a few sell orders stacking up now... I am hoping it can remain above $4 for now as I am going to keep holding long term, if it retraces I will get more..  I hope another institution jumps on and starts buying up a block..

Would most people be cashing out now expecting a retrace or staying firm ?


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## adobee (8 May 2008)

Down today with the rest of the market I hope it finds some support .. 
Word on the grapevine and also in yesterdays Fin review is that UBS may be about to start coverage with a buy recommendation.. If this comes out could push a few more investors on the boat..


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## chrissyoscar (8 May 2008)

adobee said:


> Down today with the rest of the market I hope it finds some support ..
> Word on the grapevine and also in yesterdays Fin review is that UBS may be about to start coverage with a buy recommendation.. If this comes out could push a few more investors on the boat..




I have high hopes for this stock and decided to go in again on some price weakness today.
If the experts are right and Atlas starts shipping by late this year to early next year I think the price will move quickly.
I would imagine there are quite a few people looking very seriously at this stock.
It got a strong buy from  Merrill Lynch which I believe caused the price to jump quickly and if UBS follow with a buy it'll be good news for us already in.

Found this on YouTube.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvzrV0JOmUo


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## adobee (16 May 2008)

This is pure speculation but I have heard talk that there would be interest in a FMG AGO merger / takeover.. as FMG looks to increase there resource base, do people think this possible ? I understand AGO does plan to use some of the FMG infastructure and have been in alot of contact at the North West Iron Ore Alliance ?


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## tigerboi (16 May 2008)

adobee said:


> This is pure speculation but I have heard talk that there would be interest in a FMG AGO merger / takeover.. as FMG looks to increase there resource base, do people think this possible ? I understand AGO does plan to use some of the FMG infastructure and have been in alot of contact at the North West Iron Ore Alliance ?




Ive talked about AGO'S chances lately regarding rail capacity & the top 4-6 in that area coming together in some type of super meger as AGO,BRM,UMC,will have big problems with their rail access.FMG themselves will need BHP'S line to go to 55mt..how can the others hope to get in,BHP &RIO'S lines are all going to full capacity...they wont allow a conga line of io juniors blocking the line.

As for a FMG/AGO  hook up..i dont think FMG has the cash,i know they dont.
its one thing to sign a mou for rail access but when its running 24/7 for their own IO..these hopefuls are going to have big problems..thats why i like a spec such as bmy...5 minutes from the port...tb


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## tigerboi (28 May 2008)

*Re:ATLAS IRON COST TO TRANSPORT 1MT OF IO*

Strange there hasnt been a word on here for a few weeks,i thought i would put my io transport estimates for AGO from the other thread...looking at the md of TTY speaking of buying the rolling stock he uses for about $12M,that may be the better option for AGO,reckon they wouldnt get knocked back for the use of the line if they fronted up with the own cars??

For a fraction of the total cost to go by road(shooting my own industry in the foot here!)they could buy their own for cheap $$$,plus pay it off by hauling for others...re:with BHP going to ramp up to 200mt+,AGO could possibly get in for their whack hauling for BHP...just a thought...tb




Been crunching the numbers on the pardoo dso that AGO plan to be running the 75k from mine to port,by getting the approx.fuel bill of the transport operator you can guesstimate the overall cost to AGO per 1mt of IO from the pardoo mine to the port,starting at the current $1.80 per litre of fuel.(keep in mind that the contract will be pegged to the fuel price)

The IO is run to the port by 150t gross quad roadtrains,net 100t per trip which is a total of 150kms,75kms at its full gross weight at near 150t.i reckon around 140 litres(sm junkie correct me if im wrong?) fuel per 150km trip,the quad side tippers dont always run back empty,there is equipment that goes back to the mine as well.

Atlas iron operation,1mt of iron ore from pardoo mine to pt headland
by quad side tipper roadtrains on a 150t permit,100t net per trip.

1,000t=10 trips,1500kms

10,000t=100 trips,15,000kms

100,000t=1,000 trips,150,000kms

1,000,000t=10,000 trips,1,500,000kms

140 litres x10,000 trips= 1,400,000 litres x $1.80= $2,520,000 fuel bill

now fuel should be 1/5th(20%) of the operators costs,bearing in mind the drivers up there are the best paid in the world not just australia as they have to be enticed with allowances for accommodation,isolation of the job,cost of living up there etc,so the operator has to keep his 2 biggest costs at below 45-50%(fuel & wages)

so $2.52m x 5 =$12.6m per 1mt,my first guess was around $11m but with fuel surging big time ive started at $1.80,but ill show the rest from say $1.50 upwards.

Estimates of total cost based on operators fuel usage/bill

140 litres x 10,000 trips= 1,400,000 x $2.00=$2,800,000($14.00m)

140 litres x 10,000 trips= 1,400,000 x $1.90=$2,660,000($13.30m)

140 litres x 10,000 trips= 1,400,000 x $1.80= $2,520,000($12.60m)

140 litres x 10,000 trips= 1,400,000 x $1.70=$2,380,000($11.90m)

140 litres x 10,000 trips= 1,400,000 x $1.60=$2,224,000($11.20m)

140 litres x 10,000 trips= 1,400,000 x $1.50=$2,100,000($10.50m)

You can see how the fuel price is going to hurt AGO big time,now they start in october i believe when more than likely diesel will be at $2.00,the estimates show that every 10c rise in fuel AGO will be up for $700,000 more or $70,000 for every  cent it rises..

These estimates are for 1mt & i understand AGO are looking to get 3mt out in the first year...

so my ball park figure is $12.60 per tonne for each 1mt at the current fuel price.also depends how the contract is done,but it will contain the provision for rises in fuel,now at $12.6 per mt i havent included the 15% fuel levy,the final cost per mt could well be up to $16.00 per mt now times that by the 14mt they are aiming for..phew...how much are they getting per tonne for the io?...are they going to put this 14mt on the spot market or its already taken...

The cost of io transport for the midwest companies such as gbg & mmx is around the 20% mark,so i expect AGO to come in about 12-15%...

cfe & arh are about 4-8%,so you can see how your location has a big effect on costs...tb


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## adobee (28 May 2008)

AGO enters ASX200

This is good news we should see some large investment companies start to take interest if it can maintain its spot in the 200..


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## frogen (28 May 2008)

tigerboi said:


> Ive talked about AGO'S chances lately regarding rail capacity & the top 4-6 in that area coming together in some type of super meger as AGO,BRM,UMC,will have big problems with their rail access.FMG themselves will need BHP'S line to go to 55mt..how can the others hope to get in,BHP &RIO'S lines are all going to full capacity...they wont allow a conga line of io juniors blocking the line.
> 
> As for a FMG/AGO  hook up..i dont think FMG has the cash,i know they dont.
> its one thing to sign a mou for rail access but when its running 24/7 for their own IO..these hopefuls are going to have big problems..thats why i like a spec such as bmy...5 minutes from the port...tb




Tigerboi,
            I think you will find that BMY's IO tenements are actually 130km from the port, not 5 mins. They are located further east from the Pardoo tenement of AGO. I agree though that the biggest hurdle for these juniors is the transport to port. They will all face increasing costs. And BHPBIO will do nothing to help these small companies with rail access, trust me on that ....
            I would think FMG will have rail acces available but only as they ramp up in the near term. It would be a different story in a few years time when they are moving 80 million tons or so one would think


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## adobee (28 May 2008)

I think once FMG ramp up production and there income streams they will start looking at takeovers and folding in other miners to further increase their resource.. Forrest is a driven guy and he is not going to stop and relax, he also isnt going to sit back and be content with his position, I can see big expansions on the cards.. This is my opinion.. but in twelve months you heard it here first ..

Inway good on AGO.. I hope the entry into ASX200 pushes some more brokers reports out 7 revisions.. UBS Intersuisse.. will have to wait and see..


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## tigerboi (1 June 2008)

frogen said:


> Tigerboi,
> I think you will find that BMY's IO tenements are actually 130km from the port, not 5 mins. They are located further east from the Pardoo tenement of AGO. I agree though that the biggest hurdle for these juniors is the transport to port. They will all face increasing costs. And BHPBIO will do nothing to help these small companies with rail access, trust me on that ....
> I would think FMG will have rail acces available but only as they ramp up in the near term. It would be a different story in a few years time when they are moving 80 million tons or so one would think




Hey mate i know where brumbys tenements are....5 mins = the conveyor they are going to use to get their product to their "port"...that comes from bmy management...tb

you obviously havent seen the maps ive posted on the brumby thread,go see...


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## tigerboi (1 June 2008)

*Re:AGO/BMY SOUTH LIMB...*

Heres one map which is the south limb of ago with brumby in the middle of ago/bhp...frogen ill throw a few more up here for you to see...tb

the most southern bmy ground is the southern limb which runs to ago's ground...

had this map for ages,see where it says atlas pardoo,with brumbys all east of that ground...

atlas going by road,brumby going by conveyor...5 mins to port...tb


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## tigerboi (1 June 2008)

*ReARDOO MAPS*

Heres another pardoo map of atlas irons area,brumby resources close by between ago & bhp,greenfields coastal exploration from their goldsworthy/pardoo tenements to telyagel...tb

Atlas iron pardoo................................brumby up here


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## frogen (1 June 2008)

tigerboi said:


> Hey mate i know where brumbys tenements are....5 mins = the conveyor they are going to use to get their product to their "port"...that comes from bmy management...tb
> 
> you obviously havent seen the maps ive posted on the brumby thread,go see...




Tigerboi,
             I have seen the maps before and BMY do have some very good IO ground beside AGO. I don't doubt any of your info but I hadn't heard of the 'transport by conveyor to port '. 
             You said from BMY management, was that in a quarterly report, or an ann ? I missed it ! Before I invest, I like to be aware of all the facts that are publicly available. No offence intended


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## adobee (12 June 2008)

Atlas is getting some good coverage in the finreview it has been in the past four or five days now.. article on it being the first on track to make it as a producer from all the juniors, article on the train line and ports, article today on one of the directors also being appointed on moly mines.. 

Share price has been lagging over the past weeks with a lack of news and also the market as a whole.. hoping for something positive to come out soon and kick it back up..


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## michael_selway (12 June 2008)

adobee said:


> Atlas is getting some good coverage in the finreview it has been in the past four or five days now.. article on it being the first on track to make it as a producer from all the juniors, article on the train line and ports, article today on one of the directors also being appointed on moly mines..
> 
> Share price has been lagging over the past weeks with a lack of news and also the market as a whole.. hoping for something positive to come out soon and kick it back up..




Yep this is part of that article

*Date: 11/6/2008 
Author: Cathy Bolt 
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 6 
Atlas Iron MD, David Flanagan, has spoken in favour of a tentative plan to allowjunior miners to access the Pilbara iron ore region's rail infrastructure.Flanagan said the draft third-party haulage regime would increase the viabilityof at lease five mining companies and could contribute an additional $A400million in royalties to Western Australia (WA). According to Flanagan, the dealstill has "a long way to go". WA Treasurer, Eric Ripper, said he hopedto establish a regime that would prevent owners of infrastructure assets fromexerting monopoly powers*

thx

MS


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## rob (19 June 2008)

Share price has been lagging over the past weeks with a lack of news and also the market as a whole.. hoping for something positive to come out soon and kick it back up..[/QUOTE]

Thursday, 19 June 2008
Colin Jacoby

IRON ore hopeful Warwick Resources’ share price jumped 19% in morning trade after Atlas Iron upped its stake in the company to 19.54%.

Warwick stocks gained 8.5c from yesterday’s closing price of 45c to hit an intraday high of 53.5c in morning trade with over half a million shares changing hands by 11am EST.

In a shareholder notice released on the Australian Securities Exchange today, Atlas purchased almost 5 million shares in Warwick on June 16 for around $1.14 million, increasing its shareholding in Warwick from 13.4 million shares (15.33%) to 18.4 million shares (19.54%). 

The news follows Warwick’s announcement in April that it had entered into a strategic alliance with Atlas for the exploration and development of its iron ore projects near Newman in Western Australia’s Pilbara region. 

Under the agreement, Atlas will acquire a 19.9% stake in Warwick through a share placement and the acquisition of existing shares at 23c per share. 

Meantime, Warwick announced yesterday it would bring forward the scheduled drilling of its largest iron ore target at Woggaginna to later in June. 

The project lies 55km southeast of Newman and 35km south of BHP Billiton’s Jimblebar iron ore mine and railway in the Pilbara. 

Shares in Warwick have cooled to 52c in late morning trade.

Nice to see things are starting to move up.


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## adobee (19 June 2008)

I think it has held pretty well considering there would have been a fair bit of trading going on.. I am reasonable confident that there is a new base at around $3.60 ..  I think on the next firm up of more resources and as we get closer to production a push above $4 with $4 as a new bottom will be nice..


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## SM Junkie (3 July 2008)

Didn't Atlas take a hiding today with a 41c drop, very sad to see. Certainly hope we don't see further drops tomorrow, I only take solace in the fact that we were not alone.  I only saw red today in my portfolio.


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## LeeTV (3 July 2008)

SM Junkie said:


> Didn't Atlas take a hiding today with a 41c drop, very sad to see. Certainly hope we don't see further drops tomorrow, I only take solace in the fact that we were not alone.  I only saw red today in my portfolio.



Taking in to account how some of the other major and junior reource stocks did today Atlas is around the average mark. I don't think the downtrend has quite finished(for stocks in general) from what I have been reading and some of the analysts views. Tomorrow may be a black friday indeed 
Regardless of what happens in the short term I will hold as Atlas is finacially sound and gearing up to produce soon.


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## adobee (5 July 2008)

I pulled out at around 3.70... I still like it but am not a big fan of the current market interest.. will buy back in again if goes below $3 or if I see some interest re forming..


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## adobee (7 July 2008)

I hope for the holders this bounces a bit tomorrow or I dont know where we are going to see it go.. I am watching closely as buying opportunity.. what a shame they didnt capitalise a bit on the last run and get some more information out there.. starting to look like a good buy as the next iron ore producer coming on line..


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## Motogoon (7 July 2008)

I got rid of about 3/4 of mine at 3.95, glad i did now, but still kept some for the long term because i'm sure its got a lot more upside yet.
I'd like to get in again at these seemingly cheap prices but the way everything gets sold off when the US market drops is just freaking me out!


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## wildmanchris (7 July 2008)

Makes no sense that it has been sold off so hard - but then again it doesnt really make sense that most of the shares are getting sold off hard.  I first put AGO on my watch list at $1.00 and never took a punt, so I feel like it is doing the right thing by me now and coming back.

As the share price drops - the $6 price target on it looks better and better to me!


Waiting patiently for entry.


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## andy87 (8 July 2008)

wildmanchris said:


> Makes no sense that it has been sold off so hard - but then again it doesnt really make sense that most of the shares are getting sold off hard.  I first put AGO on my watch list at $1.00 and never took a punt, so I feel like it is doing the right thing by me now and coming back.
> 
> As the share price drops - the $6 price target on it looks better and better to me!
> 
> ...




im in your boat chris....been seriously watching AGO for the last month waiting for the right buy in opportunity


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## LeeTV (22 July 2008)

Well the announcment today that the commencement of exports from Pardoo will now be delayed till December went down like a lead balloon much like the sp, down 9% 

If you were waiting for the right opportunity to get in andy87 I think it has just about shown itself.



> Tuesday, 22 July 2008
> PARDOO PROJECT DEVELOPMENT UPDATE
> Atlas Iron Limited (ASX Code: AGO) is currently developing the Pardoo Iron Ore Project, located 75 kilometres east of Port Hedland in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Recent developments include;
> 
> ...


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## andy87 (25 July 2008)

LeeTV said:


> Well the announcment today that the commencement of exports from Pardoo will now be delayed till December went down like a lead balloon much like the sp, down 9%
> 
> If you were waiting for the right opportunity to get in andy87 I think it has just about shown itself.




Yeh ive asked my broker and a few others in the stockmarket world and they said they are good for the future.  Judging by their forecasts they are going to be great performers, but i cant do anything until i get rid of my other stock which has taken a beating in the last month so got to wait to b/e and ill look at AGO again.


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## adobee (25 July 2008)

andy87 said:


> Yeh ive asked my broker and a few others in the stockmarket world and they said they are good for the future.  Judging by their forecasts they are going to be great performers, but i cant do anything until i get rid of my other stock which has taken a beating in the last month so got to wait to b/e and ill look at AGO again.




why keep holding somthing that has taken a beating unless you think it will recover...  ?? I dumped half my stock when they market went south which was down 20% but bought other stocks bmy ago which were down to which i am looking for a better recovery from...


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## stock nub (25 July 2008)

New DSO reserves out 

68% INCREASE IN TOTAL DSO RESOURCES TO 39.1MT AT 56.3% FE

174% INCREASE IN TOTAL DSO RESERVES TO 14.8MT AT 57.7% FE

FIRST DSO RESERVE FOR THE ABYDOS PROJECT AT 7.4MT AT 58.1% FE

37% INCREASE IN PARDOO DSO RESERVES TO 7.4MT AT 57.3% FE


----------



## stock nub (6 August 2008)

North West Iron Ore Alliance has secured two berths at port headland which will have the capacity for up to 50 million tonnes of iron ore exports per
annum.

Also in trading halt

maybe for offtakes?

maybe twiggy ready to sign a deal but doubt it as didnt sound too certain at diggers and dealers


----------



## YELNATS (6 August 2008)

stock nub said:


> New DSO reserves out
> 
> 68% INCREASE IN TOTAL DSO RESOURCES TO 39.1MT AT 56.3% FE
> 
> ...




I would have thought this would have impressed the market but AGO shares have been heavily marked down in recent days. Hard to fathom. 



stock nub said:


> North West Iron Ore Alliance has secured two berths at port headland which will have the capacity for up to 50 million tonnes of iron ore exports per
> annum




Indication is that this will be from 2012, so a few years off yet.


----------



## agro (6 August 2008)

news just out:

August 2008
*ABYDOS MAGNETITE JOINT VENTURE WITH FMG*
Atlas Iron Limited [ASX Code: AGO] is pleased to announce that it has today signed a Joint Venture Heads
of Agreement with Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX Code: FMG) for a joint venture over ELA45/2310, a
tenement over which Atlas owns the iron ore rights. The primary focus of the joint venture is to define and
develop extensions to the FMG Glacial Valley magnetite deposit. Atlas does not consider this tenement as
prospective for direct shipping grade iron ore.
The material terms of the joint venture heads of agreement are as follows:
1. FMG may earn a 60% joint venture interest in the Iron Ore Rights by delineating Inferred Resources of
iron ore within the Tenement.
2. FMG may earn a further 15% joint venture interest in the Iron Ore Rights by completing a pre-feasibility
study on the mining of iron ore within the Tenement.
3. FMG may earn a further 12.5% joint venture interest in the Iron Ore Rights by completing a definitive
feasibility study on the mining of iron ore within the Tenement.
Background
Atlas is on track to commence mining in October 2008 at its Pardoo DSO Project and to commence DSO
exports from Port Hedland in the 4th Quarter of 2008. Together with additional DSO export tonnages from
Abydos, Atlas is targeting exports of 6 million DSO tonnes per annum by 2010 and 12 million DSO tonnes
per annum by 2012 through Port Hedland.


----------



## Real1ty (7 August 2008)

> 6thAugust 2008
> ATLAS SIGNS PORT ACCESS AGREEMENT WITH FMG
> Atlas Iron Limited [ASX Code: AGO] is pleased to announce that it has today signed a binding Heads of
> Agreement with Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX Code: FMG) for access to FMG’s Port Hedland port
> ...




This is excellent news although very short on actual details and i hope management come out and make a bigger announcement prior to coming off a trading halt.

Hopefully the market will take a lot of confidence from this announcement and reassess it's valuation of AGO, although it is only for initial production at this stage.


----------



## Real1ty (7 August 2008)

http://news.smh.com.au/business/atlas-iron-signs-jv-deals-with-fortescue-20080806-3r1y.html



> Atlas Iron signs JV deals with Fortescue
> 
> August 6, 2008 - 7:34PM
> 
> ...




Hopefully with things becoming a bit clearer some confidence will return.


----------



## Real1ty (7 August 2008)

*Atlas signs up to use Forrest's Port Hedland facilities*

ANDREW Forrest's Fortescue Metals Group has signed its first third-party access agreement at its Port Hedland port, inking a deal with West Australian iron ore hopeful Atlas Iron.

The pair signed a long-awaited deal yesterday afternoon, Atlas managing director David Flanagan said at the Diggers and Dealers mining conference in Kalgoorlie.

"It's a huge agreement and a big milestone," Mr Flanagan said.

"It is going to be good for all juniors. If there were any doubts Andrew was going to do deals, those should be dispelled."

The binding heads of agreement allows Atlas to export iron ore from its Pardoo project, scheduled for first production in October.

Down the track, Atlas is planning to export from a multi-user berth being planned in Port Hedland, but that will not be ready until 2012.

The company is also supporting Mr Forrest's attempts to get BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto to provide third-party access to their Pilbara railways, which it says would provide more efficient movement to port of iron ore from Pardoo.

Atlas is expected to negotiate a rail haulage agreement with Fortescue to transport ore from its Abydos tenement.

It is also likely to use road haulage to get its product from Pardoo to port.

Mr Flanagan said Atlas had been given room to stockpile ore at Fortescue's port and said loading of two ships was expected this year.

He would not reveal the terms of the agreement.

"It's not for free. We're going to have to pay for it," he said.

"There's an option to do up to two ships by Christmas." After that, a minimum of one shipload a quarter would be exported.

The ore will be shipped to Asian customers.

Atlas plans to export about 6 million tonnes of iron ore annually by 2010 from its Pardoo and Abydos mines and increase that to 12 million tonnes in 2012.

Atlas shares slumped from about $4 in June to $2.17 before they went into a trading halt yesterday.

"A lot of shareholders have been concerned about when we were going to complete that agreement," Mr Flanagan said.

As well as the port deal, Atlas signed an agreement under which Fortescue could take a controlling stake in some iron ore tenements.

The company said: "The primary focus of the joint venture is to define and develop extensions to the Fortescue Metals Group Glacial Valley magnetite deposit." 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24139187-5005200,00.html


----------



## rob (12 August 2008)

What is going on, the day they decided to have a trading halt every one went up 8% then they released it at 5.30 the same day following day it opened at about 16% to finishe at 4% since then its done nothing but go down, even with all this good news plus the deal with fmg. whats the price going to be by xmas when they start production only to see it wittled down again. Any comments p[lease trying to make sence out of all of this.


----------



## Dickwhit (12 August 2008)

I am also curious. All news is good, the latest broker report quotes it as A $5 stock, 2010 profit will be over $200 Million, the Ridley deposit will be about 2 billion tons, & prices head south on minimal trading. I love this stock & think it has great potential. Also Fortescue predicts China's iron imports will increase by 50 million tons per year.
Richard W


----------



## Doris (1 September 2008)

Does anyone know why AGO has broken up today?  

Their reply to the ASX for a speeding ticket this morning simply reiterated announcements from the past five weeks.

It opened up .11, rose to 2.79, seems to be consolidating about 2.62, up 15%.

The intraday price chart looks as though someone knows something new!


----------



## michael_selway (1 September 2008)

Doris said:


> Does anyone know why AGO has broken up today?
> 
> Their reply to the ASX for a speeding ticket this morning simply reiterated announcements from the past five weeks.
> 
> ...




FRS is up alot too, and a few other IRON ORE's, not sure why though

It must be some takeover speculation?

thx

MS


----------



## Doris (1 September 2008)

michael_selway said:


> FRS is up alot too, and a few other IRON ORE's, not sure why though
> 
> It must be some takeover speculation?
> 
> MS




You're right about the IO stocks!  FRS is up 10%

Even SDL is up over 17%!

So it's not a takeover speculation.


----------



## LeeTV (1 September 2008)

Not sure as to why the sudden take off off AGO but am quite happy that it's heading the right way, as a holder : It's was oversold and undervalued imo.
It seems all the companies in the North West Iron Ore Alliance, including BC Iron Ltd, Atlas Iron Ltd, Brockman Resources Ltd and FerrAus Ltd. all did well today up 11.11%, 14.91%, 6.9% & 11.96% respectively.



> Capacity at Port Hedland's inner harbour is set to increase to cater for the iron ore expansion projects by BHP Billiton, which today secured an agreement with the state government.
> 
> BHP will move to increase its capacity at the port to move a total of 240 million tonnes per annum through the inner habour to cater for the Rapid Growth Projects 5 and 6.
> 
> ...


----------



## Motogoon (11 September 2008)

Man what a blow to the price the last couple few days, i'm gutted, thought things were on the way up a couple of weeks ago. Hit a high of 2.79 the other day now in the low 1.80's!

I'm still hanging on but i'm feeling the pain cos i bought in at 3.30 first then 2.50. Pretty much the same story for all my stocks.


----------



## LeeTV (11 September 2008)

You can count me in that boat too Motogoon 

The current market is fugly to say the least, unless you have some spare cash and can swoop on some of the bargains out there. Here's hoping October will bring better sentiment, September is notorious for being a bad month for our market on the whole.


----------



## Motogoon (11 September 2008)

Hey LeeTV,

Yep i'm pretty much maxed out so there'll be no swooping on bargains for me, just have to hold on to the ones i've got now till things improve, At least i do have faith in the companys i'm holding, hard pill to swallow tho.


----------



## fordxbt (11 September 2008)

its funny, when this stock was on it's way up to 2.50 i though i missed the boat..no need to worry though i dropped the cash into another falling knife!


----------



## Romeo75 (11 September 2008)

Motogoon I'm like you.  I bought in at $3.53 then again at $2.51.  As soon as I get my hands on some cash I'll buy more if it stays below $2.  But I have learnt a lesson.  DIVERSIFY!!!  I'm stuck with a handful of spec miners which may take many months to realise their potential


----------



## bluekat (21 September 2008)

AGO appears to be a great stock, all the boxes look good, , but not in SP.
Is production in January 09 appearing unlikely?.


----------



## YELNATS (8 October 2008)

bluekat said:


> AGO appears to be a great stock, all the boxes look good, , but not in SP.
> Is production in January 09 appearing unlikely?.




With what appears to be a great report yesterday identifying two new DSO iron ore bodies, and production/export to begin this month, sp has dived to $1.29 today, down nearly 12%.


Puzzling, to say the least/


----------



## BraceFace (8 October 2008)

YELNATS said:


> With what appears to be a great report yesterday identifying two new DSO iron ore bodies, and production/export to begin this month, sp has dived to $1.29 today, down nearly 12%.
> 
> 
> Puzzling, to say the least/




Not really - take a look at what's happening to other Iron Ore miners like BHP, RIO and FMG.
They are being hammered and yet they're actually in production and are diversified (unlike AGO).
It will be some time before AGO is back up around $3.

After a crash/correction, the large caps recover first and the small caps recover last so don't hold your breath on this.

By the way, I hold, so I feel your pain. Gotta take a long term view.


----------



## Doris (9 October 2008)

Trading halt pending ann on final mining approvals for Pardoo DSO project.

... Monday or when ann out.


----------



## jackson8 (9 October 2008)

am wondering if latest announcement form mgx may be replicated in other iron ore producers over coming months


----------



## StockMiner (9 October 2008)

jackson8 said:


> am wondering if latest announcement form mgx may be replicated in other iron ore producers over coming months




hope not, the mgx announcement wasn't good news.
Fingers crossed the Pardoo approvals are positive and there's some sp increase


----------



## nunthewiser (9 October 2008)

hi, can someone enlighten me on AGO current cash held ? any chance of a cap raising announcement being thrown in while there in halt ? do they have the cash to develop said deposits? ...... iron ore might be a common mineral in the west but it sure aint cheap to mine it .

forgive my quetions ive never researched it only listened to the hype so steered clear .

thanks in advance


----------



## nunthewiser (9 October 2008)

??? No holders know the answers to my questions ???

man thats a lil scary.....................................or am i being impatient and check back tommorow ?


----------



## Motogoon (10 October 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> hi, can someone enlighten me on AGO current cash held ? any chance of a cap raising announcement being thrown in while there in halt ? do they have the cash to develop said deposits? ...... iron ore might be a common mineral in the west but it sure aint cheap to mine it .
> 
> forgive my quetions ive never researched it only listened to the hype so steered clear .
> 
> thanks in advance




Pretty sure i read in a broker report that thry've got someting like 147 milliom in the bank, so not too much to worry about i think. I'm a holder & believe in them, one of they few shares i'm still holding on to. Big things to come i'm sure.


----------



## adobee (14 October 2008)

AGO in long halt awaiting annoucement re final approvals for Pardoo Project..
Today would be a good day to release some positive news and sale upwards guys !!!


----------



## LeeTV (14 October 2008)

Currently suspended from trading but the forthcoming news looks to be all good. Let's hope they catch this current trend in the market and jump up as far as FMG has today


----------



## treefrog (14 October 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> hi, can someone enlighten me on AGO current cash held ? any chance of a cap raising announcement being thrown in while there in halt ? do they have the cash to develop said deposits? ...... iron ore might be a common mineral in the west but it sure aint cheap to mine it .
> 
> forgive my quetions ive never researched it only listened to the hype so steered clear .
> 
> thanks in advance




yer not thinking of switching from MGX are ya nun?

CURRENT POSITION ($ 000s)  
 2006 2007 2008 
Cash Assets 8,308 14,433 143,350 
Receivables 233 535 3,061 
Inventory --  --  --  
Others 7 22 68 
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 8,548 14,989 146,480 
.
Accounts Payable 1,426 2,080 11,808 
Debt Due --  --  --  
Others 31 211 1,423 
CURRENT LIABILITIES 1,457 2,291 13,231 
.

quick ratio of 11


----------



## alex arigo (19 October 2008)

very bullish on ago long term its a great stock very oversold holding on for the long term china will still need iron ore no matter what


----------



## dirkdiggler444 (20 October 2008)

Whats with the big AGO sellout?  SP is down 18%, after they have just announced production/mining of ore.  Shouldn't this boost SP??  I haven't done much research, only read Commsec announcements.  Anyone know more?


----------



## bas (20 October 2008)

The market is probably worried about the fact they have no sales agreements in place yet.

XXXXXXXXXXXXX


----------



## jman2007 (20 October 2008)

Interesting times we live in,

A mid-tier IO producer announces mining has commenced and gets slashed by 20% for its troubles. And was it really worth going into such a long suspension for this announcement? 

If we strip back to the bare bones their rather waffly recourse released today, they're basically saying "yep we've started mining, but we don't have any customers". They also seem to contradict themselves somewhat by saying they are committed to exporting low grade ore, but the operations are currently focussing on otimising grade and contaminants. So they're basically digging out the cream of their ore now, to try and stay competitive and lure a buyer.

Remains to be seen how these mid-tier producers will go, the Chinese will no be playing hardball and will want to win back some of their losses since the last round of IO price negotiations. I also don't know how AGO's DSO ore compares in quality to say MGX's from Koolan Island...anyone?

Looks to be in for some short to mid-term volatility to say the least, I suggest people thoroughly do their own research.

jman
DNH


----------



## Sharks37 (21 October 2008)

Interesting times indeed. As they say its all about timing...6 months earlier and you would have seen their s/p sky rocket on news like this.


----------



## jman2007 (22 October 2008)

Sharks37 said:


> Interesting times indeed. As they say its all about timing...6 months earlier and you would have seen their s/p sky rocket on news like this.




Don't know much about their management setup, but they obviously have balls of steel, or are completely insane to be mining ore without a customer. One would think they can't simply just happily stockpile their material for a month of Sundays, and ship it at their leisure. I imagine they would be considering spot market sales as a last resort.

jman


----------



## bluekat (28 October 2008)

I'm sure BHP must have AGO on it's shortlist of possible buys, why buy RIO when you can get junior miners for lower than basement prices. With RIO, BHP will pay a premium, the juniors represent a true discount .
Maybe they are waiting for the bottom.


----------



## alex arigo (28 October 2008)

what a joke ago has 140 million bucks in the bank started mining iron ore target 1 mtpa current year to 3 mtpa 09 10 6 million tones 2010 12 million 2012 looks good to me i am a long term holder of this stock what wih the massive sell of way over sold to me panic selling looks like


----------



## gav (28 October 2008)

I posted these figures the other day on the FMG thread.  They are correct as at 26 Oct 08.

Comparing Iron Ore Stocks....

BCI - Down 85%
*AGO - Down 84%*
CFE - Down 56%
MGX - Down 89%
FMG - Down 78% 

AGO look on par to other IO stocks to me.  If AGO is oversold, then so is everything else....


----------



## gav (28 October 2008)

Yes Nun.  Of course the fundamentals for all companies mentioned above are different, I was just giving a broad view of Iron Ore company share prices.  It seems everyone thinks their Iron Ore company is oversold.  Good luck to all that hold.


----------



## nunthewiser (28 October 2008)

gav said:


> Yes Nun.  Of course the fundamentals for all companies mentioned above are different, I was just giving a broad view or Iron Ore company share prices.  It seems everyone thinks their Iron Ore company is oversold.




i havent mentioned that i think anything oversold , merely its quite an eye opener when one looks at the big picture, actually think a few still may be way overvalued for what they are on a fundamental bottom line basis 

and yes realise you just posting falls , i am only posting comparisons also


----------



## Broadside (28 October 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> i havent mentioned that i think anything oversold , merely its quite an eye opener when one looks at the big picture, actually think a few still may be way overvalued for what they are on a fundamental bottom line basis
> 
> and yes realise you just posting falls , i am only posting comparisons also




most iron ore stocks are down 80-90%

the best will survive and eventually thrive, an awful lot of subeconomic and marginal projects that required further massive IO price increases will now get scrapped, probably a good thing for the cream of the crop

I don't hold AGO but it's one of a handful that have what it takes


----------



## nunthewiser (28 October 2008)

Broadside said:


> most iron ore stocks are down 80-90%
> 
> the best will survive and eventually thrive, an awful lot of subeconomic and marginal projects that required further massive IO price increases will now get scrapped, probably a good thing for the cream of the crop
> 
> I don't hold AGO but it's one of a handful that have what it takes




all cool i realise the falls .my original post was in regards to doing a comparison of that list on asset values per share and earnings per share ... quite an eye operner 

not dissing any stocks not promoting any , just bringing up an observation really


----------



## gav (28 October 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> i havent mentioned that i think anything oversold , merely its quite an eye opener when one looks at the big picture, actually think a few still may be way overvalued for what they are on a fundamental bottom line basis
> 
> and yes realise you just posting falls , i am only posting comparisons also




It doesnt matter which Iron Ore thread you go to, it seems alot of the holders believe they are oversold.  Wasnt talking about you in particular.  IF future earnings on these companies are correct, then I guess you could say they are oversold.  But thats a big IF!  I however think you are right, some are still overvalued.


----------



## adobee (30 October 2008)

Atlas has had a slight swing at last from the low levels its been trading at perhaps due to the talked about possible interest of BHP, perhaps because people are taking notice of their current position.. I have taken a small position in this this morning 35k shares and will look to hold for at least 9 months.


----------



## adobee (31 October 2008)

An interesting line up at the moment for open.. Bids around 80 to 90c ..
will be interesting to see where this does open... large increase in interest since dwindling down to 58c..


----------



## adobee (3 November 2008)

Atlas Iron Limited (ASX Code: AGO) is very pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement with a medium-sized Chinese steel mill for the sale of the first shipment of iron ore from the Connie Deposit at its 100%-owned Pardoo DSO Project. As a result, Atlas will immediately commence hauling ore to the port of Port Hedland for shipment.
Mining is currently underway at the Bobby and Connie deposits at the Pardoo Iron Ore Project, located 75 kilometres by road from Port Hedland, in the Pilbara of Western Australia. Connie is a lower grade “startup
deposit”. Its low strip ratios, homogenous ore character and proximity to infrastructure provided the best opportunity to meet our shipping deadline within 8 weeks of final approval to mine.

Atlas recently commenced mining at its 100%-owned Pardoo Iron Ore Project in the Pilbara of Western Australia where it is targeting its first shipment in December 2008. Atlas is fully funded with approximately $100 million cash at bank and zero debt as it completes commissioning of Stage One and ramp up to 1Mtpa. Atlas is planning to export 1 million tonnes during its first 12 months of operations at the Pardoo Project, growing to 3 Mtpa for year 2. With additional export tonnages from Abydos, the Company is targeting exports of 6 Mtpa for 2010, growing to 12 Mtpa by 2012.


----------



## adobee (3 November 2008)

WOW .. sellers have really dried up now... this could really move !!
1,600,000 buy side   40,000 sell side ...


----------



## maungatapu (3 November 2008)

adobee said:


> Atlas Iron Limited (ASX Code: AGO) is very pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement with a medium-sized Chinese steel mill for the sale of the first shipment of iron ore from the Connie Deposit at its 100%-owned Pardoo DSO Project. As a result, Atlas will immediately commence hauling ore to the port of Port Hedland for shipment.
> Mining is currently underway at the Bobby and Connie deposits at the Pardoo Iron Ore Project, located 75 kilometres by road from Port Hedland, in the Pilbara of Western Australia. Connie is a lower grade “startup
> deposit”. Its low strip ratios, homogenous ore character and proximity to infrastructure provided the best opportunity to meet our shipping deadline within 8 weeks of final approval to mine.
> 
> Atlas recently commenced mining at its 100%-owned Pardoo Iron Ore Project in the Pilbara of Western Australia where it is targeting its first shipment in December 2008. Atlas is fully funded with approximately $100 million cash at bank and zero debt as it completes commissioning of Stage One and ramp up to 1Mtpa. Atlas is planning to export 1 million tonnes during its first 12 months of operations at the Pardoo Project, growing to 3 Mtpa for year 2. With additional export tonnages from Abydos, the Company is targeting exports of 6 Mtpa for 2010, growing to 12 Mtpa by 2012.




There's a lot of info not given. Which company is buying the ore, at what price,  how many tons and over what time period. Anybody got any ideas.
MGX is selling at $US40 a ton. From 6 customers 3 defaulted is still in discussion with 1 and the other 2 are large shareholders in MGX.
Brazil's Vale is cutting back production by 30m tons
There's no point planning to export 1 million tons unless you have a buyer
The best laid plans of mice and men often go astray. I hope their plans don't go astray.


----------



## adobee (3 November 2008)

maungatapu said:


> There's a lot of info not given. Which company is buying the ore, at what price,  how many tons and over what time period. Anybody got any ideas.
> MGX is selling at $US40 a ton. From 6 customers 3 defaulted is still in discussion with 1 and the other 2 are large shareholders in MGX.
> Brazil's Vale is cutting back production by 30m tons
> There's no point planning to export 1 million tons unless you have a buyer
> The best laid plans of mice and men often go astray. I hope their plans don't go astray.




Market seems to disagree with you on this one ..
100mill in the bank.. zero debt...  I am awaiting Hartleys to review their last report..  I personally think the cut back in demand for iron ore will be short lived.. personal view only..


----------



## YELNATS (23 November 2008)

Quote:
Atlas Iron chairman removed
 AAP

22/11/2008 4:18pm  


Atlas Iron Ltd's largest shareholder IMC Resources Investment has unseated the iron ore miners' chairman, in a move that could be the prelude to a takeover bid.

The removal of the ex-BHP Billiton Ltd executive David Nixon by the 19.6 per cent shareholder surprised shareholders at Atlas' annual general meeting in Perth on Friday.

IMC Resources Group is an Asian shipping company with operations in Australia, China and Indonesia.

It is believed to be associated with Linq Resources Fund, with holds just under five per cent of Atlas.

Atlas is expected to call an extraordinary general meeting to appoint a new chairman.

Unquote

Could this be the precursor of a takeover? By whom? What price would be a "fair price" in view of AGO's assets and prospects? Will there be an initial bounce in AGO's price on Monday?

Wondering.


----------



## Sean K (24 November 2008)

Been canned this month. Halved.

299m on issue at 45c = $134m

$100m cash plus 19.5% WRK and 43.7% SRR, must add up to something.

Plus some fe....

Last year highlights:

1. Executed sales contract for our first shipment
2. Started Mining, Delivered first ore to port within 4 weeks of environmental approval
3. Drilled 1,054 holes for 54,894 metres
4. Completed first ever third party infrastructure agreement with FMG
5. Discovered DSO resources, completed PFS and resorted reserves at Abydos
6. 68% increase in DSO resources to 39.1Mt at 56.3%Fe
7. 174% increase in DSO reserves to 14.8Mt at 57.7%Fe
8. 52% increase in magnetite resources to 1.45Bt at 36.5%Fe
9. 55% increase in Pilbara landholdings to 9600sqkm
10. Identified exploration potential for 170 to 220 Mt of DSO grading 57 to 60%Fe
11. Discovered high grade DSO at Weld Range (58 metres at 65.1% Fe)
12. Acquired 19.9% of Pilbara iron ore explorer Warwick Resources
13. Raised $100M at $2.00



Hmmm, another one to the list.


----------



## maungatapu (24 November 2008)

YELNATS said:


> Quote:
> Atlas Iron chairman removed
> AAP
> 
> ...




IMC Resources is more than an Asian shipping Co. It is involved in marine industries, engineering, investments & lifestyle/real estate
IMC has investments in Linq Capital, View Resources, Ashton Coal Mines, Horizon Oil and Atlas.
Could be that IMC shipping line is involved in transporting their ore. Maybe even had some influence in procuring a market for their ore.
I think that IMC would try and prevent a take-over especially from the likes of BHP


----------



## adobee (26 November 2008)

_
*RIDLEY MAGNETITE RESOURCE UPGRADE TO 2 BILLION TONNES*
Atlas Iron Limited [ASX Code: AGO] is pleased to report on a significant resource upgrade for its 100% owned
Ridley Magnetite Project, located at the Company’s Pardoo Project just 75 kilometres east of Port Hedland, in
the Pilbara of Western Australia.
HIGHLIGHTS
● 35% TOTAL RESOURCE INCREASE TO 2.01 BILLION TONNES
● 45% INCREASE IN INDICATED RESOURCES TO 1.1 BILLION TONNES AT 36.6% FE
● RIDLEY MAGNETITE PRE-FEASIBILITY COMPLETION ON TRACK FOR DECEMBER 2008_

Hopefully this can help ride some momentum from yesterday...  All we need now is someone to make a deal to buy .. or bhp to take a shot..


----------



## agro (5 December 2008)

ATLAS SHIPS FIRST COMMERCIAL IRON ORE TO CHINA

news out just now

too bad it's not reflecting on the share price


----------



## trillionaire#1 (5 December 2008)

give it a little time Agro ,when some money comes back to the resource
sector ,this should be an early improver.


----------



## agro (8 December 2008)

news out this morning:

ATLAS SIGNS NATIVE TITLE MINING AGREEMENT FOR ABYDOS
“This agreement is also a major step forward for Atlas as we deliver the greater Abydos Iron Ore
projects in conjunction with and in partnership with the Njamal People.” he added


----------



## adobee (10 December 2008)

2million plus buyers stacking up.. however little volume traded..  most buyers I have seen for some time.. I would love an update of a sale agreement before Christmas..


----------



## derty (10 December 2008)

I can only see the 1st 10 prices for buy and sell on commsec and they add up to 302k buy vs 308k sell, with the total being 2029k buy and 753k sell. 

Maybe someone who can see the whole depth can tell us where the rest of the buyers are, but I dont think that simply looking at the total buyers and sellers is a good indication of interest in a stock. There may be a bid of 1mill at $0.20.


----------



## adobee (10 December 2008)

About $240k traded in last 20 minutes at 75c plus..  nice to see a close at 76.5 as we have been falling back pre 70c for the last few weeks..
450k shares on the sell side and hopefully falling..  fingers crossed for  tomorrow..


----------



## michael_selway (10 December 2008)

adobee said:


> About $240k traded in last 20 minutes at 75c plus..  nice to see a close at 76.5 as we have been falling back pre 70c for the last few weeks..
> 450k shares on the sell side and hopefully falling..  fingers crossed for  tomorrow..




Hm yeah not bad today

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS -17.9 7.8 44.9 81.8 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *



> Date: 24/11/2008
> Author: Michael Vaughan
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 18
> The chair of Atlas Iron has been voted out by a major shareholder. At theminer's AGM on 21 November 2008, IMC Resource Investments voted against there-election of David Nixon. It is thought that the Chinese-backed company wasunhappy after failing to gain an iron ore supply agreement with Atlas




thx

MS


----------



## trillionaire#1 (10 December 2008)

solid day for AGO this arvo,strong finish to the day.
i plan to keep this one in the back pocket for a while.


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## adobee (11 December 2008)

DSO DISCOVERY AT WODGINA 100% AGO .. full potential expected to be revealed January..

Looking more and more attractive everyday.. all we need now is a buyer..


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## adobee (15 December 2008)

ADDITIONAL EXCELLENT RESULTS ENHANCE WODGINA DSO PROJECT
high grade, near surface results from its
ongoing RC drilling program at Wodgina 100 kilometres south of Port Hedland in the Pilbara of Western Australia. New intersections include:
46 metres at 60.6 % Fe, 0.04% P, 4.78% SiO2 and 1.13% Al2O3 from surface
36 metres at 60.8% Fe 0.05 % P, 3.44% SiO2 and 1.19% Al2O3 from surface
36 metres at 60.1% Fe 0.08% P, 4.78% SiO2 and 0.72% Al2O3% from 14 metres

100% AGO


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## adobee (19 December 2008)

*We have a buyer !!*  Still a fair way to go but AGO looks to be increasing there strong position to whether the global storm and become a dominant player in the iron ore market.



ATLAS ENTERS INTO LONG TERM OFF-TAKE AGREEMENT FOR 30% OF PARDOO DSO
Atlas Iron Limited (ASX Code: AGO) is pleased to announce that it has entered into a long term off-take agreement with a medium-sized Chinese steel mill. *The agreement is based on the Free on Board (FOB) sale of approximately 30% of iron ore produced from its 100%-owned Pardoo DSO Project for the period to 31 March 2012, with the price referenced to the long term benchmark and subject to the normal iron ore market discounts for ore of the grade that Atlas will produce*. The first shipment under this long term off-take agreement is expected to be completed by the end of March 2009. Mining is currently underway at the Bobby deposit at the Pardoo Iron Ore Project, from which ore for the first shipment under this agreement will be sourced. The agreement was executed after careful evaluation of the extremely competitive bids received both from trading groups and steel mills. *“The level of interest demonstrated in the Atlas product has been very strong, despite the challenging global economic situation”* commented Atlas Managing Director, David Flanagan. “Atlas is looking forward to developing a, win-win relationship with our first long term off-take partner and to finalising negotiations with other interested parties for the remainder of the projected Pardoo production,” he added. *This arrangement excludes the two shipments from the lower grade Connie deposit announced on 3 November 2008 and today, 19 December 2008.* _*Off-take negotiations for the balance of the Pardoo iron ore are ongoing and the Company expects to complete and disclose further contracts in the short term*_


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## trillionaire#1 (19 December 2008)

it was nice to read the latest announcements from AGO this morning
looks as though they have as bright a prospects as any small/mid cap miners.


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## adobee (19 December 2008)

Now offers a great deal more security to potential investors.. and further offtake announcements in the short term to boost the share price.. I have picked up more this morning pre 80c and am hoping for a strong run prior to closing.. I am sure todays annoucement will be attracting alot of interest..


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## justiceotp (19 December 2008)

Its is amazing how the market reacts to news like this, currently trading at 79c gain of only 2c you would have expected a better gain than that from good news like this.


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## Motogoon (20 December 2008)

justiceotp said:


> Its is amazing how the market reacts to news like this, currently trading at 79c gain of only 2c you would have expected a better gain than that from good news like this.




I think thats probably because theres still a lot of uncertainty about the demand for iron ore and hence the price its worth. Look whats happened to the price of oil because of low demand!

They've only got an agreement for 30%, And at what price was that sold?


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## kirtdog (28 December 2008)

will be watching this one personally, they look good on paper but i think they are over priced at the moment.. would jump in anywhere below 0.5.. hopefully it will hover around there soon for those jumping on board..


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## justiceotp (28 December 2008)

I don't expect they will go down to 0.50 but anything is possible in the current market, there are quite a few BUY recommendations out from various brokers with target prices ranging from $2-$4. These guys have 95 mil in bank and no debt. They are also putting into place some nice long term contracts, I'm currently a holder and would but more if i had some more spare cash lying about.


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## kam75 (29 December 2008)

The late november low at 0.405 looks like a bottom for now but I would not touch AGO until a break of 1.00.  There's simply no buying pressure there at the moment.  The volume has to come back into this stock before I'll get interested.


----------



## adobee (29 December 2008)

Overvallued ???? Where you going try under valued.. there is 100mill in the bank.. will keep them running full throttle for at least three years and there are now cash inflows...  plus alot more assets the 150mill..

anyway TRADING HALT PENDING NEW DRILL RESULTS... lets go baby..

this and aar is the only stock I am currently holding... avg price 70c... I am thinking 85c+  would be a nice break out to make another move..


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## justiceotp (30 December 2008)

Hopefully some good news here will give some strong gains when trading resumes, kirtdog you probably should have jumped on board last couple of days but who knows even with good news no guarantee much upward price movement nowadays.


----------



## justiceotp (30 December 2008)

Sorry probably should have added this link to one of my previous posts, but a recent analysis on atlas by Hartleys
http://www.atlasiron.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1817


----------



## SM Junkie (30 December 2008)

I was suprised to read that Harley only dropped the previous valuation by a few cents, so they are certainly optimistic.  

Throughout this whole financial disaster, the news from Atlas has only continued to be positive. It's nice to see one of my stocks bringing me back into the black.


----------



## kirtdog (31 December 2008)

I wanna kick myself.  i think you guys r right hopefully today nobody notices lol.......................


----------



## adobee (31 December 2008)

I dont think it is about to take off overnight so relax... but if we can close above 85c then that will be fantastic...

Really good news that Hartleys maintain AGO as a BUY with valuation close to $4.. hardly any downgrading at all... especially interesting to see they had buyers for 100% of there offtake but knocked them back to lower risk.. clever thinking....


----------



## muzzza (31 December 2008)

adobee said:


> I dont think it is about to take off overnight so relax... but if we can close above 85c then that will be fantastic...
> 
> Really good news that Hartleys maintain AGO as a BUY with valuation close to $4.. hardly any downgrading at all... especially interesting to see they had buyers for 100% of there offtake but knocked them back to lower risk.. clever thinking....




Ended up finishing at 85.5 cents  Holding... Looking forward to watching this one in 2009.. DYOR...


----------



## justiceotp (31 December 2008)

Yes Kirtdog don't be too concerned its still good buying at 85c I don't think too many people here myself included will be selling too soon.


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## jonojpsg (2 January 2009)

Looks like some attention is being paid today!  High of $1.05 and will be interesting to see where it ends up.


----------



## maungatapu (2 January 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> Looks like some attention is being paid today!  High of $1.05 and will be interesting to see where it ends up.



The previous high on 3 Nov was $1.07. Opened at 89c closed at 96c. Could be a bit of resistance around $1.05/$1.07.

It sure took off.


----------



## justiceotp (2 January 2009)

Yes it did very well today still plenty stacked up on the buy side so hopefully it can push through.


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## adobee (2 January 2009)

Question is why did it take off??? No new announcements or change in substansial holdings.. But late to be taking notice off last announcement few days later.. Its normally buy the rumour.. I think this might continue the same up trend till we see next announcement..history has seem some outstanding breakouts once the resistance is broken..


----------



## rob (3 January 2009)

adobee said:


> Question is why did it take off??? No new announcements or change in substansial holdings.. But late to be taking notice off last announcement few days later.. Its normally buy the rumour.. I think this might continue the same up trend till we see next announcement..history has seem some outstanding breakouts once the resistance is broken..




would think it would be because most people would have been busy  or on holiday, will see it move up again monday as people are still away.


----------



## adobee (3 January 2009)

I don't know about that.. Was in trading halt three days before.. Anyone serious would have had there eyes on the announcement.. I can't see 20% + just on drilling results in this market..  Look out for more news next week or some one taking a position..


----------



## justiceotp (4 January 2009)

Adobee you are probably right but also it was on trading halt over a quiet period and then came back onto the market on a quiet day with reduced trading time and volume on that day (31st) was well up for AGO with 10% gain when most others where quiet, then on New Years day was plenty of newspaper articles about it even made my local small town paper so probably had a few jump on board that hadn't really been following the share anyway. Probably see another nice day on Monday when more return back from holidays and we see some more volume.


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## adobee (5 January 2009)

Looks good... lots of buyers and minimal sellers...
lets hope for a big day... I am expecting some further news this week considering all this action...


----------



## adobee (5 January 2009)

looking at past break outs i think we could see $2 by the end of today.. sellers are drying up pretty quickly..


----------



## justiceotp (5 January 2009)

Yes its looking good but as per always you will see people start selling to make a quick buck, a waste when there is so much more potential.


----------



## justiceotp (5 January 2009)

Look at that now here come the sellers. Sellers have doubled now but the buyers are still very strong 225 buyers vs 41 sellers.


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## JTLP (5 January 2009)

adobee said:


> looking at past break outs i think we could see $2 by the end of today.. sellers are drying up pretty quickly..




Adobee that's a pretty bold statement...100% run in a day? AGO has been making some good gains but that's just out of the question


----------



## michael_selway (5 January 2009)

adobee said:


> looking at past break outs i think we could see $2 by the end of today.. sellers are drying up pretty quickly..




Yeah not bad, but does anyone know if AGO has any debt?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS -17.9 4.8 28.1 54.6 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *







thx

MS


----------



## adobee (5 January 2009)

Get with the program.. No debt !! 100 mill cold hard cash  .. Ore in the boat.. Names on the contracts... Under valued over sold !!      G5 player !!


----------



## justiceotp (5 January 2009)

Yep these guys are in good shape other than the share price taking a dip through all the drama in the IO industry its been business as normal for them. They seem to have have had little drama finding buyers and putting contracts into place.
Ill link it again have a read of this from Hartleys Limited it will probably give you the best quick overview of their current financial situation and business operations.
http://www.atlasiron.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1817


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## adobee (7 January 2009)

They just keep pushing and keep the momentum rolling....  


7th January 2009
"ATLAS INTERSECTS HIGH GRADE AT PARDOO DSO PROJECT
Atlas Iron Limited (ASX Code: AGO) is pleased to announce the discovery of high grade direct shipping iron ore (DSO) from exploration drilling immediately east of the Alice ore body at its 100% owned Pardoo Iron Ore Project, located 75 kilometres by road from Port Hedland, in the Pilbara of Western Australia. Better results include:
96 metres at 63.3% Fe, 2.61% SiO2, 1.34% Al2O3 and 0.17% P from surface
66 metres at 62.6% Fe, 3.90% SiO2, 0.94% Al2O3 and 0.15% Pfrom 6 metres
56 metres at 61.3% Fe, 4.06% SiO2, 0.96% Al2O3 and 0.20% Pfrom 40metres
44 metres at 64.1% Fe, 1.29% SiO2, 0.66% Al2O3 and 0.19% Pfrom 10metres
28 metres at 64.3% Fe, 2.59% SiO2, 0.35%Al2O3 and 0.11% P from 46metres
26 metres at 64.8% Fe, 1.57% SiO2, 0.68% Al2O3 and 0.17% P from 4 metres


----------



## rob (7 January 2009)

justiceotp said:


> Yep these guys are in good shape other than the share price taking a dip through all the drama in the IO industry its been business as normal for them. They seem to have have had little drama finding buyers and putting contracts into place.
> Ill link it again have a read of this from Hartleys Limited it will probably give you the best quick overview of their current financial situation and business operations.
> http://www.atlasiron.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1817




Seems to be alot of talk of iron ore returning and china using up their stocks, look at  atlas up over 30% today with alot of other companys and hoping more to come with china's stimulas package all looking very promising.


----------



## adobee (7 January 2009)

JTLP said:


> Adobee that's a pretty bold statement...100% run in a day? AGO has been making some good gains but that's just out of the question




My bad ..  Perhaps by the end of the week..  Once 140- 145  is broken we will see a strong push.. This is still way under value; people are just starting to catch on.. No debt! There is no pressure for atlas to make cheap or dodgy deals to sell there ore.. Plenty of forth coming news in regard to new buyers and resource upgrades.. Only concern here is the economy as a whole.. In my opinion..


----------



## samoth25 (7 January 2009)

Could someone please give an opinion on the relation of these numbers and there importance in making decisions 

please be kind ....am newhttps://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/icons/icon7.gif



264 buyers for 2,450,366 units 	23 sellers for 108,956 units


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## justiceotp (7 January 2009)

those numbers are just the number of buyers and shares they want to buy in total vs the number of sellers and shares they wanna sell in total. 
If there are a lot more buyers than sellers like is the case here with AGO the price pressure is up eg more demand than supply.
Most shares staying steady are equal both sides 
And shares going down higher on sellers side than buyers.
Its only an indication as it also depends on how much demand there is towards the price. If for example someone puts a a buy in now of 20 mil shares at 50 cents they wont get them but will stack the buy side up with no effect.
This is extremely stacked on the buy side so the stocks should go up nicely again tomorrow if nothing else changes.

If you are only new to shares read the link below which will give you a bit of an indication of the value of the company by Hartley's remember this was done in December so before the two recent announcements of better iron discoveries which should only increase the value of the company since then.
Also note its only there opinion of the value of the company and not a guarantee.
http://www.atlasiron.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1817


----------



## justiceotp (7 January 2009)

Hey Adobee you might end up right only a few days delayed. I reckon you might see your $2 a share tomorrow, thats if we don't run out of sellers  Even the day traders are hanging onto these.


----------



## tigerboi (7 January 2009)

*Re: AGO-massive ramp,howdya getaway with it?*



adobee said:


> looking at past break outs i think we could see $2 by the end of today.. sellers are drying up pretty quickly..




I want to know how you get away with... 

1.1 liner low content post

2.price target

3.massive 1 day 100% ramp

i know if it was me id get an infraction from mod for all of the above
id like to see some decent analysis on AGO as ive got a big interest on the same ground with BMY resources.

by the way the ground AGO has up there was carved up & sold to them by 

IGO...who saved the best part for BMY (md's mates deal)

5th...open.1.15,high.1.25,low.1.135,close.1.17

83c off the $2.00 price target,since has closed at $1.50 today,2nd biggest volume in 12 months when on the up...

run very hard so dont think $2.00 is possible atm but im sure you'll do your best...tb


----------



## adobee (8 January 2009)

*Re: AGO-massive ramp,howdya getaway with it?*



tigerboi said:


> I want to know how you get away with...
> 
> 1.1 liner low content post
> 
> ...






True.. and I appologise for this blatent disregard of the rules... Just got caught up in the excitement of getting back in the green...   Yes it is clear you definetly like BMY.. shame about their share price.. I am sure if the land is as good as you say AGO will pick them up ($5-8mill?) I dont think they could go it alone...   AGO really has an advantage against many other small to mid miners with no debt and income streams...


----------



## adobee (8 January 2009)

*Option Agreement with Atlas Iron Limited*
Pursuant to an option agreement under which Atlas Iron can acquire the iron ore rights at Chalice’s Yandeerra Project, Chalice has received an initial payment of $250,000 following completion of a formal agreement between the parties. Atlas Iron must then make a further payment of $1,000,000 in cash or Atlas Iron shares (valued at a 5 day VWAP) should it exercise its option to purchase the iron ore rights. The option expires no later than 12 months after the date of the formal agreement.


*Yandeearra*
Location and Tenure
Chalice Gold's interests in the West Pilbara gold district (Figure 1) comprises a tenement package of over 1,300 square kilometres at Yandeearra, contiguous with both Range River Gold Limited's Indee Gold Project (previous published JORC compliant resources of 529,000 ounces of gold,  in several deposits) and De Grey Mining Limited's Turner River Gold Belt (including a published resource of 203,000 ounces of gold at Wingina Well).  De Grey Mining Limited has also had recent success in base metals exploration at its Orchard Tank VMS prospect, which lies approximately 60 km to the northeast of the Yandeearra Project.


----------



## maungatapu (9 January 2009)

adobee said:


> Atlas Iron Limited (ASX Code: AGO) is very pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement with a medium-sized Chinese steel mill for the sale of the first shipment of iron ore from the Connie Deposit at its 100%-owned Pardoo DSO Project. As a result, Atlas will immediately commence hauling ore to the port of Port Hedland for shipment.
> Mining is currently underway at the Bobby and Connie deposits at the Pardoo Iron Ore Project, located 75 kilometres by road from Port Hedland, in the Pilbara of Western Australia. Connie is a lower grade “startup
> deposit”. Its low strip ratios, homogenous ore character and proximity to infrastructure provided the best opportunity to meet our shipping deadline within 8 weeks of final approval to mine.
> 
> Atlas recently commenced mining at its 100%-owned Pardoo Iron Ore Project in the Pilbara of Western Australia where it is targeting its first shipment in December 2008. Atlas is fully funded with approximately $100 million cash at bank and zero debt as it completes commissioning of Stage One and ramp up to 1Mtpa. Atlas is planning to export 1 million tonnes during its first 12 months of operations at the Pardoo Project, growing to 3 Mtpa for year 2. With additional export tonnages from Abydos, the Company is targeting exports of 6 Mtpa for 2010, growing to 12 Mtpa by 2012.




I'm guessing that the 1st shipment of 65,000t would be worth approx 4.55m based on the spot price of $70 per ton. I presume thats $US. 2nd shipment due out mid /late Jan. at approx the same price.

An article in The Age states that Chinese steel mills are looking at a 45% price cut for iron ore. Anybody know what the contract price is?
Atlas is planning to ship 1m tons this year. Working on $60 per ton = $60m
Don't want the $A to rise.

Be interesting to see what the quarterly report has. Should be able find out what Atlas is selling its ore for.


----------



## adobee (9 January 2009)

maungatapu said:


> I'm guessing that the 1st shipment of 65,000t would be worth approx 4.55m based on the spot price of $70 per ton. I presume thats $US. 2nd shipment due out mid /late Jan. at approx the same price.
> 
> An article in The Age states that Chinese steel mills are looking at a 45% price cut for iron ore. Anybody know what the contract price is?
> Atlas is planning to ship 1m tons this year. Working on $60 per ton = $60m
> ...




QUote Hartleys Report 
http://www.atlasiron.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1817

Long Term Offtake Agreement for 30% of Pardoo – Atlas has
finalised a long term offtake agreement for 30% of its Pardoo ore up
until 31 March 2012. The agreement is with a medium-sized Chinese
steel mill. *The price is referenced to the Hamersley Iron fines long
term benchmark price, with appropriate discounts for grade and
contaminants. Whilst the Company would not disclose the actual
discount due to confidentiality, we believe that the discount is lower
than the 16% received for Robe iron ore.*We understand that steel mills have bid for up to 100% of the Pardoo
offtake. However, in this uncertain time in the iron ore market, Atlas
plans to sign agreements with multiple parties for risk mitigation
purposes, and consequently chose to sell only 30% of its Pardoo ore
to this mill. Deals pertaining to the remaining 70% of the Pardoo ore
are expected in the near term.
The first iron ore under the agreement is planned to be shipped by the
end of March 2009, with the ore being supplied from the Bobby
deposit.
• Second Connie Spot Sale Secured – Atlas has also entered into an
agreement with a large Chinese steel mill for the sale of a second
shipment of iron ore from its Connie deposit at Pardoo. Letters of
credit are expected to be put in place within the next five business
days. The Company will start hauling ore to Port Hedland, ready for
shipping in mid/late January 2009. This spot sales agreement is with a
different mill to the first spot sale.
We believe that the first Connie shipment was close to revenue
neutral. However, we believe that this second shipment will generate
an operating profit due to better operating efficiencies, as well as an
increase in the spot iron ore price.

Slight Valuation Downgrade due to Commodity Price Assumptions – We have updated our commodityprice and exchange rate assumptions. *We are forecasting a 25% drop in the iron ore price *for the next round of
pricing negotiations in 2009, with the price then remaining flat for the next two years. Consequently, our sum of parts valuation for Atlas has reduced slightly to $3.98/share.


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## justiceotp (9 January 2009)

Adobee probably also important to note that that valuation by Hartleys was done on the 19th December and that AGO have released two discoveries since that date that would add to the valuations of those sites.


----------



## tigerboi (10 January 2009)

*Re: AGO-massive ramp,howdya getaway with it?*



adobee said:


> True.. and I appologise for this blatent disregard of the rules... Just got caught up in the excitement of getting back in the green... Yes it is clear you definetly like BMY.. shame about their share price.. I am sure if the land is as good as you say AGO will pick them up ($5-8mill?) I dont think they could go it alone... AGO really has an advantage against many other small to mid miners with no debt and income streams...




The BMY shareprice never bothers me = great time to continue my march into the top 20,now from memory the ground you have up next to BMY was bought from IGO for cash,the better ground IGO took 11%(very important % that) of BMY & paid up for the 1/2 at 14c to retain that 11% buffer...
55m shares,top 20 got 50%

Brumbys ground got way more io in it...bonwick(igo) & jones(bmy)mates from resolute...

IGO gave AGO the dregs  ...tb


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## Motogoon (12 January 2009)

justiceotp said:


> Adobee probably also important to note that that valuation by Hartleys was done on the 19th December and that AGO have released two discoveries since that date that would add to the valuations of those sites.




justiceotp & adobee i think it should also be noted that broker recommendations are often way off the mark, i'm not saying that's the case with ago but miners are in for a very tough year i think.
Iron ore could still be in for a rough ride, especially as car makers around the world severly cut back production.


----------



## maungatapu (12 January 2009)

However, Platts reports that its Beijing source said Baosteel would be offering $US50.80 a tonne for iron ore fines from Hamersley (one of the benchmark rates). This would still be above the 2007-8 contract fines price of $US47.10/tonne and would be seen as a return to more sober levels of metals pricing rather than a devastating blow to balance sheets. Hamersley is a Rio Tinto subsidiary.

The report said the Chinese would expect the 40 per cent drop from all suppliers, which would include Brazil's Vale do Rio Doce, but the news was notable for including the phrase that the concessions would be sought "especially from Australian ore suppliers". 
Extract from todays "Austrailian".

AGO up and down like a yoyo today. Opened at 123 down to 105 up to 134
any comment?


----------



## adobee (12 January 2009)

no comment.. here... yo yo it was... at 1045 I was feeling sick at 2pm I was feeling good ....

I think there are alot of people on edge with the market and jump out as soon as they see the price potentially sliding.. and stop losses being hit.. people are very scared to leave money in the stock (any stock) and let it ride... even I considered selling out with a chance to buy back in again.. luckily I didnt at this stage.. still very wary though ... not so much of AGO but of the market in general ....


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## justiceotp (12 January 2009)

Adobee I think your right, I was in the same position watching it drop and considered selling to buy back lower and like you glad I didn't but id say many did everyone is a bit on edge and almost expecting the worst after what came out of the US on Friday so a little trigger happy.

Here is a small theory I have on these small/medium Iron Ore companies with potential. I think the Chinese steel mills who are obviously trying to drop the iron ore price down as we have seen already are also trying to take advantage of the situation in another way by doing deals with these smaller guys when there is less demand for IO to try and reduce the market power of the likes of BHP and RIO. In a time when you see reduced production from BHP and RIO companies like AGO don't seem to have too much trouble placing shipments and putting contracts into place like the 30% in recent weeks. Also BRM Brockman resources hinted in their "Please explain letter" from the ASX that they had been in negotiations with the chinese and they are still some time off having a product.


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## adobee (15 January 2009)

*MAIDEN INFERRED RESOURCE AT WODGINA*
Atlas Iron Limited (ASX Code: AGO) is pleased to announce a maiden JORC resource estimate for the newly-discovered Anson Deposit at Wodgina (Atlas 100% Fe rights), located only 100 kilometres south of Port Hedland in the Pilbara of Western Australia. 
Anson Resource – January 2009 Resource Classification
8.1Mt 57.5%FE 


Looks like the PR team at AGO are really on the ball now.. seeing good updates and news out on a very regular basis. Very important to keep investors and the market up to date in the current market..


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## maungatapu (15 January 2009)

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Iron ore demand picking up: Atlas
January 15, 2009 - 5:40PM

Atlas Iron, the West Australian iron ore company that started mining last year, said China's demand for the raw material is recovering and contract prices may not drop as much as anticipated.

"There is big destocking of the stockpiles in China and that is pushing people to go and replenish," David Flanagan, chief executive of the Perth-based company said on Bloomberg Television today. "We are seeing strengthening demand."

Demand for the steelmaking raw material plunged last year, with prices for non-contract ore in China slumping 38% to 630 yuan ($US92) a metric tonne in the fourth quarter.

Prices, up 7% this year after China announced a 4 trillion yuan stimulus program, remain below the record contract rate set last February and may fall at least 30% in negotiations this year, according to Evolution Securities in London.

"I don't want to forecast a number specifically but I think 30% is over the top," Flanagan said. "The stimulus package is playing a role and general growth in China is also playing a role in demand rebounding."

Atlas shares declined 0.4% to close at $1.395. The shares have climbed 63% this year, after slumping 64% last year.

China's iron ore imports rose 6.2% in December to 34.5 million tonnes, according to the Beijing-based customs office. Iron ore stockpiles at ports are falling, down to 60 million tonnes from 75 million tonnes, according to Merrill Lynch.

Baosteel, China's biggest steelmaker, started annual iron ore contract talks with Rio Tinto on January 12, according to two company executives. Discussions with Brazil's Vale, the world's biggest producer of iron ore, and BHP Billiton will start soon, they said.

Atlas today announced the initial resource for its Wodgina project of 8.1 million tonnes. The project is 100 kilometres from Port Hedland, Australia's biggest export harbour for iron ore.

Good to see Atlas getting some exposure in the Australian. Looks like the contract price for ore won't be set till Baosteel has had talks with the big 3.


----------



## maungatapu (15 January 2009)

My apologies. The article is from the SMH / Age not the Australian. Didn't suffer like many other resource stocks. Down .05.


----------



## justiceotp (15 January 2009)

Heres a news article thats goes along with my theory I posted the other day.

FAST NEWS
PRODUCTION EXPANDING
Atlas lands on China's iron ore map
Australia's newest iron ore miner, Atlas Iron, is expanding production, urged on by Chinese buyers keen to weaken the bargaining power of the big producers such as Rio Tinto ahead of annual price talks.
Posted:  Thursday , 15 Jan 2009 
SYDNEY (REUTERS)  - 
Australia's newest iron ore miner, Atlas Iron (AGO.AX), is expanding production, urged on by Chinese buyers keen to weaken the bargaining power of the big producers such as Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) ahead of annual price talks.
Atlas Iron said on Thursday its expansion plans remained supported by demand from China, although steel mills are pushing for a 40 percent cut in contract prices from Rio Tinto, Brazil's Vale (VALE5.SA) and BHP Billiton (BHP.AX)(BLT.L) for 2009.
For a graphic showing iron ore price moves, please click: here
"There's something of a chasm out there -- there's a huge disconnect between the financial pages and ... and what my marketing team is hearing. We've got 10 keen expressions of interest yesterday from people wanting to buy iron ore," Atlas Chief Executive David Flanagan said. Category
Atlas's expansion plans fly in the face of cuts in iron ore output revealed by Rio Tinto in its fourth-quarter production report on Thursday in response to Asian steel mills deferring shipments as a slowing global economy cuts demand. [ID:nSYD376178]
Flanagan said the company was still targeting exports of six million tonnes per annum in 2010 and growing to 12 million tonnes per annum by 2012 as it brought new deposits into production at its Pilbara operations in north western Australia.
"We just can't get all these projects up quick enough - if we could get more port capacity we would be shipping more ore today," he said.
Atlas ships its ore through the port built by Fortescue Metals Ltd (FMG.AX) which has become the first iron ore miner in the Pilbara to allow third parties to use its infrastructure.
Under its current contract with Fortescue, Atlas is limited to shipping 1 million tonnes a year.
THICK AND FAST
Project funding was not a problem, according to Flanagan who said China's steel groups stood ready to become project partners and sign long-term off-take agreements, giving junior miners the capacity to develop new projects at a time when traditional project financing was harder obtain because of the credit crisis.
"The money is coming at us thick and fast, it may be from strategic investors and financial investors but the money is still there," said Flanagan.
He said the company's funding requirements were quite modest.
"We've got undoubtedly the lowest capital cost iron ore project in Australia -- our start-up cost was about A$12 million ($7.9 million) and pro-rata it will cost about that to upgrade (for each one million tonnes expansion)."
Other junior iron ore companies are also moving ahead with production, most often with the support of Chinese customers who are keen to become project partners.
On Wednesday, Gindalbie Metals received conditional approval for a loan of up to $1.2 million from China Development Bank for the development of its Karara iron ore project in Western Australia.
Gindalbie plans to develop the mine in partnership with China's AnSteel, now the Australian company's largest shareholder following an equity raising to help fund Karara's development.
China's steel mills still worry about the pricing power of the world's three big iron producers, Rio Tinto, Brazil's Vale VALE.SA and BHP Billiton, which together control nearly 70 percent of the world seaborne iron ore trade. That pricing power helped the big three extract a near doubling in prices from steelmakers for the year that started on April 1, 2008.
For more details see factbox [ID:nLD7229421].
"Some of this increased interest is because we've come up the ranks a bit by becoming a producer but it is still more than we've ever had. China wants alternatives," said Flanagan.
Altas late last year started shipping ore from its 100 percent owned Pardoo iron ore project and expects to export 1 million tonnes in the first 12 months of operation. (Editing by Nick Trevethan)
 © Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved


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## Doris (29 January 2009)

Note announcement at 3.15 today -

Increase at Pilbara DSO by 45% to 55.7 Mt...

Market may not see this until tomorrow.


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## adobee (29 January 2009)

Just over half the days volume went through after 3.15pm today..  Fingers crossed we see some good movement tomorrow... people should definetly take note of this.. previous resistance has been around $1.50 which gets hit and then we dwindle back down...  lets hope for a good night on the dj and some press in the paper tomorrow morning...


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## Dezza (30 January 2009)

adobee said:


> ...lets hope for a good night on the dj and some press in the paper tomorrow morning...




DOW not looking too good at the moment, FTSE closed down 2.45%.

Another red day for AGO tomorrow? Looks likely.


----------



## adobee (30 January 2009)

Doris said:


> Note announcement at 3.15 today -
> 
> Increase at Pilbara DSO by 45% to 55.7 Mt...
> 
> Market may not see this until tomorrow.




I am not sure that there was any real news in this announcement apart from confirming what had already previously been announced ?? I would have thought there would have been substanially more interest however..


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## maungatapu (30 January 2009)

maungatapu said:


> I'm guessing that the 1st shipment of 65,000t would be worth approx 4.55m based on the spot price of $70 per ton. I presume thats $US. 2nd shipment due out mid /late Jan. at approx the same price.
> 
> An article in The Age states that Chinese steel mills are looking at a 45% price cut for iron ore. Anybody know what the contract price is?
> Atlas is planning to ship 1m tons this year. Working on $60 per ton = $60m
> ...




During the last quarter Atlas has been selling its ore for $52.3 per ton a 25.7% discount to the spot price. Atlas received $3.4m for its 65000t shipment.


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## maungatapu (3 February 2009)

maungatapu said:


> During the last quarter Atlas has been selling its ore for $52.3 per ton a 25.7% discount to the spot price. Atlas received $3.4m for its 65000t shipment.




BHP’s junior peers, led by Fortescue Metals Group and Atlas Iron, will also be anxiously awaiting details of the market leader’s iron ore performance and outlook guidance.

Fortescue admitted on Friday it had agreed to customers’ demands for unspecified price discounts in order to offload its iron ore, reducing the actual sales price in the December half to $92.31/t of ore shipped, including free-on-board (FOB) and delivered cargoes.

Atlas, meanwhile, sold its maiden shipment for only $57/t, although that included the FOB discount of at least $30/t compared to delivered benchmark prices.

Territory Resources, which ships out of Darwin, booked $40.2 million of revenue from sales and debtors in the quarter, suggesting an average per-tonne sales price of $96.30.

The Pilbara benchmark price for deliveries is $US144.66 ($225.15/t) per tonne of pure iron. BHP and Rio, the highest-grade producers in the Pilbara, usually average around 60 per cent iron content, or an effective price of $135 per delivered tonne of ore.

So why is AGO selling its ore so cheaply? Possibly lower grade. Even so not at such a discount.


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## prawn_86 (3 February 2009)

Maung,

If your post is taken from another source you must provide a link for copyright reasons. If no link is provided the post will be removed.

Thanks

prawn


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## tigerboi (3 February 2009)

*Re: AGO-*



prawn_86 said:


> Maung,
> 
> If your post is taken from another source you must provide a link for copyright reasons. If no link is provided the post will be removed.
> 
> ...




this would be it here prawn...tb

All eyes on BHP iron call

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=3&ContentID=122389

the rest of the story:
This year’s benchmark price is set to fall sharply, with analysts tipping a drop of between 20 per cent and 40 per cent, or down to about $US87/t. The relatively weak Australian dollar should offset some of the fall. 

Fortescue said more price adjustment was likely in anticipation of a lower 2009 Pilbara benchmark, and pointed to spot prices 20 per cent to 25 per cent below the benchmark. 

But Fortescue also flagged that spot prices were on the rise, a welcome sign for an embattled industry hoping that BHP reports the same trend. 

BHP chief executive Marius Kloppers is also expected to be quizzed again about the miner’s sudden decision last month to axe the loss-making $2.2 billion Ravensthorpe nickel mine. 

BHP has said it does not expect to reopen Ravensthorpe. Mr Kloppers is likely to be asked about future plans for the site, and whether it will be sold for scrap metal like the failed Boodarie HBI plant at Port Hedland.


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## Sean K (16 March 2009)

I can't make heads or tails out of what price they're going to achieve with this offtake agreement, but you'd assume the news of the contracts will force it up through this nice handy triangle. 

16 March 2009
ATLAS ENTERS INTO LONG TERM OFF-TAKE AGREEMENTS FOR FURTHER 50% OF PARDOO DSO

Atlas Iron Limited (ASX Code: AGO) is pleased to announce that it has entered into two new long term off-take agreements with two medium-sized Chinese steel mills. The two off-take agreements account for 50% of iron
ore that will be produced from its 100%-owned Pardoo DSO Project for the three year period to 31 March 2012.

The execution of these two off-take agreements follows Atlas’ maiden off-take agreement in respect of 30% of the iron ore that will be produced from Pardoo, announced in December 2008. As a result, Atlas has now entered into three off-take agreements for 80% of its Pardoo DSO product for the next 3 years. A further offtake agreement for the remaining Pardoo volumes is expected to be executed shortly.

Key terms of the two new off-take agreements are as follows:

• Price referenced to the long term benchmark, with pricing relativity achieved reflecting the strong competition to secure access to Atlas tonnage;
• An adjustment mechanism which applies only in the event that spot prices and benchmark prices materially diverge. Once activated this mechanism serves to adjust the sales price mid-way to the spot price, in order to maintain the fairness of contract pricing to both parties; and
• Ore sold on a delivered basis, with freight to be arranged by Atlas and reimbursable by the customers.


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## adobee (16 March 2009)

This very positive news for Atlas however some figures or commentary on what they have actually signed up would be great..  I picked up 10k at open today at 1.21 .. we will see what happens when the news get some more exposure in the papers tomorrow..


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## justiceotp (16 March 2009)

Yes nice one Atlas still holding and hanging on for a long time. Im really impressed by management of this company through these times.


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## adobee (17 March 2009)

Really surprised by the lack of movement .. up 5% from open yesterday but geez you would think 80% offtake agreement they would be going gang busters... Perhaps we will need to see some income streams before they really take off... A good opportunity to get in still as they are trading pretty much the same as before the agreement was signed..


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## maungatapu (19 March 2009)

adobee said:


> Really surprised by the lack of movement .. up 5% from open yesterday but geez you would think 80% offtake agreement they would be going gang busters... Perhaps we will need to see some income streams before they really take off... A good opportunity to get in still as they are trading pretty much the same as before the agreement was signed..




Now that AGO has off take agreements for 100% of its Pardoo DSO till 2012 most punters will be waiting for the benchmark price in early April, IMO.


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## adobee (1 April 2009)

pre open pending announcement ... will be interesting..
I jumped out yesterday at around 1.17-1.18 to free up some cash...  so will see how lady luck looks on me..


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## adobee (7 May 2009)

Well AGO looks to have broken some resistance today.. will be interesting to see where this closes up.. I picked up 5000 when pushed past 1.51.. sell side looking pretty week so fingers crossed it hasnt been pumped and gets dumped just on close ..  Good potential of a strong breakout however..


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## adobee (18 May 2009)

Trading Halt for resource upgrade... looks like other people new with the large increase in trading last week... see what happens..


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## SM Junkie (20 May 2009)

I would love to see a TA's thoughts on this stock?  I would really appreciate someone taking a look at the charts.

I love Atlas, great news keeps coming, but the stock seems to give up most of it's gains, like today for example.  The fundamentals are great, but I just can't make any sense of the chart.  I would appreciate the help.


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## adobee (9 June 2009)

Cap raising today... Yet to see the details.. could work either way for AGO.. last time there was a cap raising the share price went crazy after following a broker upgrade...  not so sure inthe current market however..


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## lyn1312 (10 June 2009)

I have so much faith in AGO - maybe they got someone to do the Ridley Magnetite joint venture that they are wanting....maybe they discovered another massive load of top quality ore...these are my favourites of all my stocks...keeping the faith..can't wait to see what the announcement is!


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## adobee (12 June 2009)

They have suggested that following the cap raising and a ramp up in production they will produce $100m per year... Cap raising around 10-15% discount.. I am interested to see how this opens following.. If looks positive I will try and jump back in as I think they will get some more attention..


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## kam75 (12 June 2009)

*Mr*

Goddamn it, how long is this crap gonna take??  I thought the trading halt was to be lifted on thursday and now this ****.  Suspension.  So annoying.


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## lyn1312 (14 June 2009)

OK -some information that may be of interest (google it yourself) The West Australian "Herd on the Terrace' 13/06/09.
I'm not sure of the legal aspects as far as quoting stuff from the media but I'm not about to tempt fate so DYOR.
For me personally - this company is only going to go one way ..... and that is UP!


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## Sean K (14 June 2009)

lyn1312 said:


> OK -some information that may be of interest (google it yourself) The West Australian "Herd on the Terrace' 13/06/09.
> I'm not sure of the legal aspects as far as quoting stuff from the media but I'm not about to tempt fate so DYOR.
> For me personally - this company is only going to go one way ..... and that is UP!



You can post a link and a summary of the article Lyn.

I'm sure the only direction this company will ever go is UP! 

Good luck with your investments.


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## acouch (14 June 2009)

good morning,
thought i would post a AGO chart for those interested,
hope this is of some help.


have a nice day
ac


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## Kuri (14 June 2009)

acouch said:


> good morning,
> thought i would post a AGO chart for those interested,
> hope this is of some help.
> 
> ...




For those of us that don't have a high level of charting skill are you able to analise the chart a bit and give us your take on it?

Thanks
Kuri


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## acouch (14 June 2009)

Kuri said:


> For those of us that don't have a high level of charting skill are you able to analise the chart a bit and give us your take on it?
> 
> Thanks
> Kuri




l would be looking for this to head for 4.29, then a retrace, once over the 4.29 i would be looking for 7.00

support 1.15

hope this is of some help
ac


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## adobee (15 June 2009)

kennas said:


> You can post a link and a summary of the article Lyn.
> 
> I'm sure the only direction this company will ever go is UP!
> 
> Good luck with your investments.




I cant find this article.. rather I just come up with this post in google and another forum..   

Can you please give some more details..


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## stock nub (15 June 2009)

It was about a chinese company coming over to Perth to check out Ridley.
The West spoke to David Flannagan and he confirmed that some chinese investors had been recently.


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## adobee (15 June 2009)

Cant believe how crazy AGO seems to go after a cap raising always.. insane jump this morning...  hardly any sellers could really fly like last time.. again just when I had sold out.. unbelievable..


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## justiceotp (15 June 2009)

This company is so well run it continues to do well. I am a long term holder.

Adobe I'm interest to know why you sold?


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## mrluva (15 June 2009)

I was going to buy AGO  last week But trading got suspended. Now it seems its bit too late. I wuldnt get SPP benefit now and Also when these SPP hit the market, AGO share price might drop.


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## adobee (15 June 2009)

justiceotp said:


> This company is so well run it continues to do well. I am a long term holder.
> 
> Adobe I'm interest to know why you sold?




I thought there was alot of resistance around 1.50 and need the money in my bank account as I was getting finance for a property.. thus sold out of this to increase by cash balance..  bit disappointed now as I was holding from about 80c..  Jumped in this morning and bought 10k as I thought it might break out further but will put out if it doesnt and wait for a bit of a retrace..


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## mrluva (15 June 2009)

Got 3K at $1.95.dont know if that was the rite thing to do?????why couldn't i resist???hope it picks up...........


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## justiceotp (15 June 2009)

You might still do alright the mug punters will see today's gains in tomorrows papers and buy up. It seems to be stacked heavily on the buy side at the moment.


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## LeeTV (19 June 2009)

Just wondering what holders of AGO are concidering with the current ssp. I for one will be taking up the full allocation and holding.



> FURTHER consolidation is expected in the Pilbara region, with Atlas Iron mobilising a plan to cement its place as the fourth-largest iron ore miner through a $500 million alliance to be announced today.
> 
> The Australian understands that Warwick Resources, which is 20.88 per cent-owned by Atlas, and Hannans Reward are set to announce a deal that consolidates their iron ore projects in the East Pilbara.
> 
> ...



http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25657152-643,00.html


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## GaryS (21 June 2009)

I for one will be taking up my full allocation. I would have taken more if I had been able.
This company seems to have made all the right moves so far. Just my worth


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## Pager (21 June 2009)

justiceotp said:


> This company is so well run it continues to do well. I am a long term holder.




Heard that before  Allco finance, Sons of Gwalia, Babcock and Brown just to mention 3 were all supposedly "so well run" 

Remember not so long a go Tamaya Resources, was another very well run junior with world class assets, had a capitol raising to secure its future improve the balance sheet, then a month later was bust 

As Far as im concerned anyone who claims to have well run business that will do well especially from Western Australia and in the mining business equals extreme caution required 

I also hold AGO, any sign of weakness in this one will mean a quick exit, as to taking up offer, will take it up if its below the current SP and sell the equivalent of my current holding.


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## LeeTV (21 June 2009)

Pager said:


> Heard that before  Allco finance, Sons of Gwalia, Babcock and Brown just to mention 3 were all supposedly "so well run"
> 
> Remember not so long a go Tamaya Resources, was another very well run junior with world class assets, had a capitol raising to secure its future improve the balance sheet, then a month later was bust
> 
> ...





If you are a holder then you should already know that the offer is well below the current sp, $1.39 to be exact. Fridays closing price was $1.79


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## johannlo (22 June 2009)

Well the indicators aren't flash (MACD bearish crossing) and on the higher boundaries of the bollinger w/ weakening volumes. 

That and the standard logic of SPP = drop as people sell off (to take part in the SPP) + dilution. 

I'm looking closely at this stock and waiting for a better entry point (pref as close to SPP as possible LOL). Actually tossing up between this and MGX as an entry into iron ore sector, any thoughts appreciated.


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## LeeTV (2 July 2009)

Good looking reports out of China. Hopefully with the DOW also currently up 113 points AGO will stage a nice rally tomorrow and get back on track for cracking $2.00 (and beyond).



> *China Manufacturing Expands a Fourth Month*, PMI Shows (Update1)
> _By Bloomberg News_
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aVHsWwtr5OIw
> 
> ...


----------



## LeeTV (8 July 2009)

*Race on for iron ore juniors*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
_Wednesday, 8 July 2009
Kate Haycock_

http://www.miningnewspremium.net/StoryView.asp?StoryID=1030869

THE junior iron ore sector could be set for a period of merger and acquisition activity with several plays in the Pilbara saying consolidation is necessary for access to infrastructure and money.

Despite the volatility of the past year and the drama surrounding iron ore prices, the Pilbara remains a hotspot of activity for explorers. 

With the Rio Tinto-BHP Billiton iron ore joint venture, juniors are also likely to provide a viable alternative for Chinese steel mills – provided these companies can actually get their ore to market. 

Brockman Resources, BC Iron, Iron Ore Holdings, FerrAus and Warwick Resources are among the more active explorers in the region.

However, the barriers to entry for these juniors remain high, and principally involve money and the size of their resources – although companies like Atlas Iron have proved it is not impossible to make smaller projects viable. 

Either way, seeking a deal with a larger company in the region is one way for a junior play to get a leg up towards production.

So far, the smaller plays have been reaching one-on-one agreements with larger companies to unlock the value of their tenements, with aggressive M&A activity eschewed in favour of more cooperative agreements. 

DJ Carmichael resource analyst James Wilson predicted there would be a lot of activity in the junior iron ore space in coming months and years.

However, he said while there were a lot of juniors in the Pilbara only a handful had the right projects to do deals with bigger companies, and there were only a small number of bigger companies in a position to do these deals.

He told MiningNews.net the majors, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, could be effectively counted out of the picture for acquisitions, joint ventures or other sorts of arrangements.

While the two majors are combining their iron ore assets, which may open up railway access for juniors in the Pilbara, this was “years off” at best. 

Wilson said Fortescue Metals Group and Atlas Iron would be the most obvious predators but the industry appeared to be moving towards “cooperation agreements” rather than M&A. 

BC Iron, for instance, has done a joint venture deal with Fortescue Metals Group over its Nullagine tenements and also won access to FMG’s railway system. 

“The BC Iron deal is the gold standard of these deals,” Wilson told MNn, adding that the deals cost nothing but had plenty of upside for shareholders.

Other cooperative arrangements include Warwick Resources, which shook hands with Atlas Iron in April over a deal that will see the companies pursue a strategic alliance for the exploration and development of Warwick’s projects near Newman in Western Australia’s Pilbara region. 

Iron Ore Holdings, meanwhile, has done a unique mine gate sales deal with major mining house Rio Tinto over its Phil’s Creek deposit – the only junior to do so. 

Then there is the much larger Aquila Resources, which through its Australian Premium Iron project controls half a billion tonnes through a complicated structure that encompasses the holdings of several smaller plays like Red Hill Iron and Helix Resources. 

Aquila too has done a cooperative deal with Fortescue Metals Group over the potential Anketell Point port development that could help FMG unlock the value of the Solomon deposit and Aquila open up the API venture. 

Among the smaller companies, Perth-based Warwick – which has yet to define a resource – has said it would open up lines of communication with its neighbours.

Warwick managing director Bruce McQuitty said the company would be talking to producers that own infrastructure and other iron ore explorers in the region.

The company’s projects are in the eastern Pilbara region and McQuitty said there were substantial resources in that area not controlled by the majors, including those of FerrAus, another company which has said consolidation is necessary in the Pilbara. 

McQuitty said in his view achieving economies of scale were necessary to unlock an infrastructure solution in his part of the Pilbara.

“We’re aggressively drilling that target tonnage out with a view to converting that to resources, and that will give us a better, more confident platform to undertake consolidation activities going forward, whether that will be in a corporate fashion or joint venture fashion,” McQuitty told MiningNews.net.

McQuitty said Warwick was in discussions with other juniors and “existing producers” with a view to potentially unlocking infrastructure. 

“We’ve seen [consolidation] before in the gold sector around Kalgoorlie, for example, we’re seeing it on the east coast with coal projects and coal seam gas, and we’re now looking at this having to happen in the Pilbara region.”

FerrAus chairman John Nyvlt last week made similar comments about his company’s view of the future of the Pilbara. 

He said companies needed to define a larger resource base in excess of 500 million tonnes that would help juniors access rail and port infrastructure. 

“As such, FerrAus would like to see, and will promote, further consolidation and rationalisation of the junior iron ore sector in the Eastern Pilbara.”

While Atlas Iron is tipped as being a consolidator in the region, Atlas managing director David Flanagan said his company had no interest in being an aggressive predator.

“We’re not in the mood to go out there and take on an M&A rampage,” he said. 

However, he added that the company’s door was open for business to other juniors. 

“Warwick came to us and wanted us to take a 20 per cent stake in the company and we did. If someone else came to us wanting to do a deal we would consider it,” he said.

Flanagan was also instrumental in creating the North West Iron Ore Alliance, a body representing juniors in the Pilbara. 

He told MNn he would strongly encourage iron ore juniors in the region “to pick up the telephone and speak to Justin Walawski [head of the alliance] and ask how you can get involved”.

“Atlas is not a unique company and there are lots of companies that could do what we’ve done. The North West Iron Alliance wants to support other entrants,” he said. 

However, Flanagan said Atlas had learned a lot from starting its own mine and this experience would help it develop further deposits.

For BC Iron managing director Mike Young, mergers and acquisitions will be on the menu for his company once it becomes an established producer – but Young views BC Iron as the company making the moves, not as a potential target, especially after its deal with FMG. 

“The fact we’ve got a joint venture with FMG and an infrastructure solution, that JV and our shareholding almost protects us,” he said. 

However, he said from the moment the company found its Nullagine deposit, it was always BC Iron’s business model to get into production and then use the cash flow to grow the company by potentially engaging in M&A. 

Young also said there would be plenty of options for successful iron ore plays in coming years with capital harder to get, especially for producers looking to expand, and that would inevitably lead to consolidation.

However, he warned tie-ups that looked good on paper might not work in reality. 

“A lot of these deposits and a lot of the companies that people might think make obvious bedfellows are a long way apart, and if you’re going to do a merger or acquisition you want to be looking at synergies,” Young said.


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## LeeTV (20 July 2009)

The spp was heavily over subscribed and those that took up the offer, including me, will only be getting roughly 50% of what we paid for and a refund will be mailed out this week. Expected quotation of spp shares is still 22nd July, 2009.

All in all not a bad result. Spp @ $1.39 closed today @ $1.80 it's too bad we only got half.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090720/pdf/31jn28444z8bff.pdf


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## LeeTV (24 July 2009)

24 Jul 2009 1.825  4.29%  1.865  1.775  *5,029,828* 
23 Jul 2009 1.750 -0.85%  1.770 1.700 *3,547,022 *
22 Jul 2009 1.765 1.15%  1.775 1.735 *1,427,797* 
21 Jul 2009 1.745 -3.06%  1.820 1.680 *2,663,420* 
20 Jul 2009 1.800 0.56%  1.850 1.750 *2,643,201* 
17 Jul 2009 1.790 5.92%  1.790 1.710 *3,734,449*



Big volumes today and in big chunks:



03:34:16 PM 1.830 300,000 549,000.00

12:00:19 PM 1.850 17,080 31,598.00 
12:00:19 PM 1.850 67,800 125,430.00 
12:00:19 PM 1.850 81,800 151,330.00 
12:00:19 PM 1.850 161,300 298,405.00 
12:00:19 PM 1.850 4,100 7,585.00 
12:00:19 PM 1.850 30,000 55,500.00 
12:00:19 PM 1.850 1,800 3,330.00 
12:00:19 PM 1.850 1,800 3,330.00 
12:00:19 PM 1.850 1,898 3,511.30 
12:00:19 PM 1.850 10,000 18,500.00 
12:00:19 PM 1.850 50,000 92,500.00 
12:00:19 PM 1.850 20,000 37,000.00 
12:00:19 PM 1.845 27,393 50,540.09 

10:56:32 AM 1.800 10,000 18,000.00 
10:56:32 AM 1.800 50,000 90,000.00

10:10:46 AM 1.800 46,776 84,196.80 
10:15:05 AM 1.805 60,000 108,300.00 
10:38:34 AM 1.800 30,000 54,000.00 

10:09:35 AM 1.800 25,000 45,000.00 
10:09:35 AM 1.800 80,485 144,873.00

A good week for AGO


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## LeeTV (28 July 2009)

27 Jul 2009 1.930  5.75%  1.970  1.850 *4,532,628*

Good volume again today with buyers lining up for more at around 7 to 4 ratio. IO prices up. Due for an announcement soon in light of capital expenditure(spp) and resource upgrades. We could be testing the $2 barrier this week if this trend continues and global conditions remain optimistic.


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## LeeTV (4 August 2009)

*Atlas Iron to Begin Wodgina Production in 2010*
_03 August 2009_

http://www.mining-technology.com/news/news61002.html

Atlas Iron expects to start production at its Wodgina DSO Project in the Pilbara region of Western Australia in January 2010 following a nine-month feasibility study.

The first exploration drill hole at the project was completed in November 2008 with an intention to begin mine development in just over 12 months, Atlas MD David Flanagan said.

Production is expected to begin at an initial rate of two million tonnes per annum (mtpa) quickly growing to 3.6mtpa in 2010, with trucking to the new Utah Point port facility in Port Hedland commencing during April 2010.

Flanagan said that the low strip ratios and the project’s location close to Port Hedland mean that the firm is very willing to invest in the project.

“The first exploration drill hole was completed at Wodgina in mid-November 2008. With mining commencing in January 2010 we intend to move from first drill hole to mine development in just over 12 months. This is a remarkable story and testament to the capabilities of our team” Flanagan said.

The project has required minimal capital outlay of just A$9.57m due to being able to leverage off the existing infrastructure at Talison Mineral’s Wodgina Tantalum mine, Atlas said.

Operating costs are expected to be between A$38 and A$45 per tonne over the course of the mine’s life.


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## LeeTV (4 August 2009)

http://www.atlasiron.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=2177&PageName=Wilson

Recommendation
Production at Pardoo was better than our estimate and is on track to
produce 1 Mt in calendar 2009 and for a 2.5 Mtpa rate during 2010.
Wodgina and Abydos projects are progressing toward development. The
Ridley magnetite project feasibility study returned a capital requirement
well above expectations, reducing our valuation and target but near term
earnings have increased with good production from Pardoo. Our risked 12
month price target reduced by 5% to *$2.59/share*. With our price target at a
29% premium to the share price we have retained our BUY
recommendation for AGO for the value expected from future production
growth with ambitious production targets progressing to 12 Mtpa by 2012.

Price Performance
Aug 08 Dec 08 Apr 09 Aug 09
$2.50
$1.25
Security/Capital Details
ASX Code AGO
Market Cap $775 M
Issued Shares (dil) 385.3 M
Avg Mth T’over 31.78 M
12 Mth High – Low $2.68 - $0.44
Key Data/Ratios – FY 2009
EBITDA / Sales -208.9%
EBIT / Sales -213.9%
Debt / Equity 0.0%
Interest Cover -127.8 x
ROE -35.3%
EPS Growth -46.3%
DCF $2.64
*12 Mth Price Target $2.59*
Key Points
 Production from the Pardoo project is on track for 1 Mt of iron ore for
calendar 2009 and to produce at a rate of 2.5 Mtpa during 2010 while it
ramps up to its target of 3 Mtpa. A total of 287,837 tonnes were mined in the
June quarter and 152,091 tonnes shipped. A cape-sized shipment (151,276
tonnes) just slipped into July. Production was better than our estimates with
regard to the ramp-up of Pardoo toward its targets.
 Demand for iron ore product has continued to be strong though pricing has
been uncertain due to the lack of official agreement by Chinese customers.
AGO has been selling cargoes on a spot basis up to July 2009. From this
point onward sales under long term contracts will be priced provisionally
based off the benchmark price that has been adopted in Asian markets
(other than China), with usual quality adjustments for AGO ore relative to
benchmark specifications. Increased AUDUSD exchange rates have been
offset somewhat by increased spot iron ore prices since the end of FY2009.
 At the end of the June quarter AGO held $124m cash, which has increased
to $164m cash following completion of a placement and share purchase
plan.
 With the completion of the Ridley magnetite feasibility study the capital
requirement at $2.27 billion was much larger than expected, by $1 billion,
offset somewhat by the value of an increase in planned production rate from
10 Mtpa to 15 Mtpa of concentrate and a higher expected recovery of
magnetite into concentrate.
 Near term however AGO’s production at Pardoo is ramping up quicker than
we had estimated, which has increased our near term forecasts.
 After adjusting for these revisions our forecast NPAT for FY2010 has
increased by 19% to $60.9m and FY2011 forecast increased by 5% to
$174m. Our DCF value reduced by 16% to $2.64 and our risked 12 month
price target reduced by 5% to $2.59/share.
 With our price target at a 29% premium to the share price we have retained
our BUY recommendation for AGO for the value expected from future
production growth with ambitious production targets progressing to 12 Mtpa
by 2012. These targets are supported by AGO’s development performance
to date and our outlook for global (and in particular Chinese) steel markets.


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## LeeTV (4 August 2009)

Another great announcement expect the sp to head north today, 2.10 - 2.15 is my bet 

*Maiden Resource for Mt Webber DSO Project *

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00974598


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## LeeTV (5 August 2009)

*Atlas Iron on track to expand*
_Rebecca Le May
August 4, 2009 - 4:49PM _

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/atlas-iron-on-track-to-expand-20090804-e8dq.html

Atlas Iron Ltd says it is on track to become Australia's fourth largest iron ore miner by 2012 at "ridiculously low capital costs".

It also says it is keeping a keen eye on consolidation opportunities in Western Australia's Pilbara region.

"We think we've got a chance to be a big company," managing director David Flanagan told the Diggers and Dealers mining conference in Kalgoorlie on Tuesday.

"You do not need to be a behemoth to be an iron ore company.

"You do not need huge debt."

Mr Flanagan said Atlas was on track to achieve its goal to lift annual output from one million tonnes (Mt) to 12Mt by 2012.

This would make Atlas the fourth largest iron ore miner in Australia behind the much-larger BHP Billiton Ltd, Rio Tinto Ltd and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.

Atlas already is largest landholder within 150km from Port Hedland.

The company last month decided to proceed with its second mine, Wodgina.

The project is expected to cost less than $10 million to develop because Atlas will use Talison Minerals' Wodgina tantalum mill under an agreement reached after the private company shut down the Wodgina tantalum mine, which is the world's largest.

This compares to the "ridiculously low capital costs" of developing Atlas' first mine, Pardoo, which required capital expenditure of $18 million, Mr Flanagan said.

Its third proposed mine, Abydos, is expected to require a more substantial capital outlay of $50-60 million.

Production is expected to start at Wodgina in January at an initial rate of 2Mt per annum, ramping up to 3.6 Mt per annum later in 2010.

Ore will be exported through the new Utah Point common user berth at Port Hedland.

Atlas exports ore from Pardoo through Fortescue's Point Anderson port facility at the same town.

Atlas announced on Tuesday its maiden resource estimate, from four of six prospects at the Mt Webber project, of 32.62 Mt in the inferred category of Australia's mineral reporting code.

Mr Flanagan said the company was looking out for consolidation opportunities in the Pilbara with $164 million cash in the bank.

He vowed to assist Fortescue's push to have BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto's Pilbara railway lines declared open to third pates by regulators.

"Not that we need it," he added.


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## LeeTV (6 August 2009)

*China on the prowl for smaller Oz miners*
_05 August 2009 @ 11:08 am ET_
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20090805/china-on-prowl-smaller-oz-miners.htm

KALGOORLIE, Australia - Who ever said China's loss of face over Chinalco's collapsed $19.5 billion Rio Tinto tie-up bid would curb the country's hunger for Australian natural resources?

Chinese state-owned and privately-held metals firms are actively on the prowl for acquisition and financing deals with Australia's small and medium-capped miners of base metals and iron ore, analysts and bankers say.

"I reckon there's still a few in the cards, there's still more to do -- particularly in steel-related products," said James Wilson, an analyst at DJ Carmichael.

"You can't shut the door on these guys because they are related to the long-term health of the mining industry here," Wilson said, adding that Chinese companies account for a huge proportion of Australian mining firm's customers.

"It's a symbiotic relationship these days."

China's hunger for Australian assets is far from satisfied, two regional investment banking sources told Reuters, even though most of the distressed deals have already been completed earlier this year in the immediate wake of the global financial crisis.

New potential buyout or financing deals may include Australia's smaller iron ore players, the likes of *Atlas Iron*, and small base metals firms such as Kagara Ltd -- anything involved in steel making or infrastructure to assist in China's massive modernization drive.

Just last month Australia gave the green light to China's Guangdong Foreign Trade Group to take a 19.9 per cent stake in debt-laden Kagara.

Rumors are also swarming China Investment Corp (CIC), the country's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, is eyeing a financing deal with Fortescue Metals, Australia's third largest iron ore miner.

What is more, Fortescue's boss Andrew Forrest is expected to ultimately sell his firm sometime in the near future -- even after Fortescue struck a $438 million stake deal with China's Hunan Valin Iron and Steel Group earlier this year.

"I think that Andrew Forrest is definitely a seller," one Hong Kong-based banker with knowledge of the Fortescue-Hunan Valin deal said, adding that Forrest may prefer to develop the company more before he exits at a higher price.

The banker predicted that Chinese firms, including Hunan Valin Iron and Steel, could be interested in buying Fortescue.

Both bankers declined to be named to protect client sensitivities.

Analysts say, there will be scant political opposition to such deals, because they will be with smaller-sized companies, and won't attract headlines such as Chinalco's failed $19.5 billion mega tie-up attempt with household name Rio Tinto.

"At the end of the day, its the shareholders who vote on these things," said DJ Carmichael's Wilson.


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## Zird (7 August 2009)

From Diggers and Dealers Conference

"IRON ore junior Atlas Iron has taken out the 2009 Digger Award at a packed gala dinner on the last night of Diggers & Dealers.

Atlas Iron managing director David Flanagan overlooking the Connie deposit at Pardoo.

It has been a massive year for David Flanagan and his team with mining at the company’s flagship Pardoo operation near Port Hedland kicking off in October last year and its maiden iron ore shipment leaving Port Hedland last December.

The miner is targeting 1 million export tonnes in its first 12 months of operations at Pardoo, growing to 3Mt for the second year.

The company is then expected to double exports to 6Mt for 2010 when Abydos comes online, growing to 12Mt per annum by 2012.

Accepting the award, an enthusiastic Flanagan thanked the Atlas management team, and their wives, for all their hard work.

“When you wake up tomorrow morning, reach over, pick up a shovel, go out and dig a hole and set yourself free,” he gushed in front of a delighted crowd."


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## LeeTV (8 August 2009)

*Merrill Lynch Reverses Iron Ore Contract Price Call to 10% Gain* 
_By Jesse Riseborough
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) _
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=a4EoJFIcq4g4

Iron ore contract prices _may _rise 10 percent next year on demand from China, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch, reversing its estimate of a 5 percent drop. 

Steel mills may pay 106.6 cents a dry metric ton unit for Australian iron ore fines in the year starting April 1, Merrill Lynch said yesterday in a report. That compares with this year’s 96.9 cents and the bank’s previous forecast of 92.1 cents. 

Cash prices for Australian ore delivered to China, the world’s biggest buyer, have risen 38 percent this year. China’s imports surged almost a third in the first half as the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus program spurs mills to produce more steel for automobiles and buildings. 

“Iron ore’s seaborne trade is recovering spectacularly from the steel market’s massive fourth quarter 2008 correction,” Merrill Lynch analysts led by Michael Jalonen and Tom Price said in the report. “2009 is a far better year than seaborne iron ore producers ever expected. We are now modest bulls on iron ore.” 

Australia is the world’s largest exporter of the steelmaking ingredient. Rio Tinto Group, BHP Billiton Ltd. and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. are the nation’s three biggest exporters respectively. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net;


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## LeeTV (12 August 2009)

*11 iron ore "winners*"
_Robin Bromby | August 12, 2009 
Article from:  The Australian _
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25918554-36418,00.html

TAKE the possible 21 iron ore stocks - outside the two Pilbara majors, of course - and Petra Capita of Sydney has found 11 they can recommend as value buys.

The broker tried to make it a level playing field - comparing apples with apples, if you like - by converting magnetite resources to their haematite equivalent; they did the sums on the amount of beneficiation required to produce a concentrate. Current benchmark iron ore prices were used to calculate enterprise value and that was all mixed up with expected EDITDA for the companies concerned. 

Then they were handicapped into three divisions by market cap - one above and two below the $500 million threshold. 

Four got the big tick in the heavyweight category: Murchison Metals with its Jack Hills project in the Mid West region of Western Australia; Gindalbie Metals which is also in that region with its Mungada and Karara projects; Fortescue Metals Group, the “new force” in the Pilbara; and Mount Gibson Iron which has Tallering Peak, Koolan Island and Extension Hill. 

Middleweight contenders that got the nod from Petra Capital were Brockman Resources with its Pilbara iron ore deposit, Sundance Resources toiling away in tropical Cameroon, Northern Iron   - a surprise winner - with the Sydvaranger deposit in Norway and - back to the Pilbara - United Minerals Corp. 

In the lightweight division, there’s Western Plains Resources drilling away in the South Australia at Peculiar Knob and Buzzard, Strike Resources over there in Peru, BC Iron which has kneeled at the foot of FMG in return for access to the latter’s Pilbara railway and as a consdequence will be in production next year, and Flinders Mines and its Hamersley project. In regard the last mentioned, FMS yesterday received a speeding ticket from the ASX, the company responding that the price and volume surge may have been due to a new broker’s report. 

It was interesting to see which companies got taken out in the cull. Notably there was Atlas Iron which is one of the great Pilbara junior success stories - but remember, this was all about finding stocks that are still value buys, not ones whose achievements and prospects have already been factored into their price. 


_The writer implies no investment recommendation and this report contains material that is speculative in nature. Investors should seek professional investment advice._


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## LeeTV (8 September 2009)

*ATLAS IRON AND WARWICK RESOURCES AGREE TO MERGE*
_September 7, 2009_
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00986051

• Atlas will issue one Atlas share to Warwick shareholders for every three Warwick
shares
• Offer represents a 48% premium for Warwick shareholders based on the price of
Warwick shares over the past 30 days
• Combined Company will reap substantial benefits from higher tonnage
production including lower costs, increased buying power and greater marketing
strength
• Combined Company will have 154mt of DSO resources(1), plus exploration
targets of 165 to 338mt at 56% to 60% Fe(2) and a Pilbara landholding of more
than 15,000km²
• Warwick shareholders to participate in Atlas’ fast growing production profile,
project pipeline, mining and project execution expertise, substantial existing iron
ore resource inventory and the combined Company’s production target of
26mtpa by 2014(3)
• Atlas shareholders will benefit from access to Warwick’s significant landholding
in a major iron ore province with potential to host large-scale, long-life projects,
increasing Atlas’ production profile
• Warwick board recommends Warwick security holders vote in favour of the
merger


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## matty2.0 (19 September 2009)

Who's the next one to get bought out by AGO? 
These little juniors would be better off in a partnership with AGO. It's gonna happen, who? when? 
Should see some stuff happening before iron ore prices start rising again.


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## mrluva (24 September 2009)

Looks like this one is going to breakout soon and try $2 resistance one more time. May be as soon as Dow turns green again and hits 10k


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## adobee (24 September 2009)

mrluva said:


> Looks like this one is going to breakout soon and try $2 resistance one more time. May be as soon as Dow turns green again and hits 10k




What makes you say that ?? It has been trying for past two years..  I think until there is a new broker report out really pumping it or an institution jumps on to dry up supply this will keep bouncing around 1.70...


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## Motogoon (25 September 2009)

Its gonna end up over 2 bucks at some stage in the future, i don't thinks its imminent though, at least not until some more good news. 

I believe theres some downward pressure from people selling who bought the offer at 1.40, seems like just as it gets some steam going towards the 1.80 mark the sellers kick in. Don't blame them though for taking an easy profit!

There was an article in sharecafe http://www.sharecafe.com.au/article_air.asp?a=AV&ai=14417 saying good things about the demand for steel so good things to come hopefully.


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## maungatapu (25 September 2009)

Motogoon said:


> Its gonna end up over 2 bucks at some stage in the future, i don't thinks its imminent though, at least not until some more good news.
> 
> I believe theres some downward pressure from people selling who bought the offer at 1.40, seems like just as it gets some steam going towards the 1.80 mark the sellers kick in. Don't blame them though for taking an easy profit!
> 
> There was an article in sharecafe http://www.sharecafe.com.au/article_air.asp?a=AV&ai=14417 saying good things about the demand for steel so good things to come hopefully.




Capesize rates are now at levels in line with those for Panamax and Supramax vessels, reflecting an easing in the rate of import growth in the Chinese commodity market. This implies the BDI has further to fall, unless as Barclays notes, there is a pick up in commodity demand among OECD nations to replace the easing in Chinese demand.
From another article from the sharecafe.com on the same page as the quote titled
'Baltic Dry Index Need OECD toRise'.                                                  Until iron ore demand and price rises iron ore producers like Atlas will continue to trade in a sideways pattern.
Bhp & RIO have gone sideways since the beginning of August.


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## mrluva (25 September 2009)

Ago has been making all the right moves to become one of the largest iron ore company...its got less debt....and it has crossed $2 twice in last 6 months...well am not a graph reader..but it luks like another breakthrough is just around the corner.
*Bought @ 1.68 today.


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## matty2.0 (25 September 2009)

maungatapu said:


> This implies the BDI has further to fall




I think you would be bold to call the BDI has further to fall regardless of china. 
long term anyways


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## maungatapu (29 September 2009)

matty2.0 said:


> I think you would be bold to call the BDI has further to fall regardless of china.
> long term anyways



Good stock to hold long term. The BDI has broken through support at 2300/2400. The decline indicates that demand for bulk commodity shipping is slowing: a negative outlook for resource stocks.
www.incrediblecharts.com


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## LeeTV (18 October 2009)

It was good to see the sp close on the high for the day on Friday, after hours, and on impressive volume of 5.4m highest since June 5th, nice fat candle. The buy to sell ratio has finally turned too in favour of the sellers. The spp must have been flushed through by now. Been on a nice uptrend for 12 days, broke through the 14, 21, 50 & 90 day ema the past few days and the MACD has crossed too. Any chartists care to give their thoughts?


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## YELNATS (30 November 2009)

AGO is in a trading halt today pending an announcement regarding port access. Surely this could only be some good news. We should know on/before Wednesday.


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## skyQuake (30 November 2009)

Also few rumours going around about the WRK takeover - possibly another party involved now? Not sure how relevant this is to the ports access


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## giorgix.m (9 December 2009)

What do you guys think it is going to happen to Atlas SP now that the merge with Warwick?

Perth, Australia, Dec 7, 2009 - (ABN Newswire) - Atlas Iron Limited (ASX: AGO.AX) and Warwick Resources Limited (ASX: WRK.AX) are pleased to report that the Federal Court of Australia has earlier today approved the schemes of arrangement between Warwick and its shareholders and optionholders.

Warwick will now proceed to extract the Orders from the Federal Court and intends to lodge the Orders with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission ("ASIC") tomorrow, Tuesday, 8 December 2009.

Tomorrow will be the last day of trading for Warwick and suspension of trading in Warwick securities will occur on ASX at the close of trading on Tuesday, 8 December 2009.

Assuming that trading in Warwick shares is suspended on Tuesday, 8 December 2009, the timetable for the completion of the Merger is as follows.

==================================================================
Scheme Effective Date. Suspension
of Warwick Shares from trading                     8 December 2009
------------------------------------------------------------------
Trading of New Atlas Shares on ASX
on a deferred settlement basis                     9 December 2009
------------------------------------------------------------------
Exercise Deadline for Warwick Options             11 December 2009
------------------------------------------------------------------
Record Date for determining entitlements
to Scheme Consideration 5.00pm (WST) on           15 December 2009
------------------------------------------------------------------
Share Scheme Implementation Date - Issue
of New Atlas Shares to Share Scheme Participants  17 December 2009
------------------------------------------------------------------
Option Scheme Implementation Date - Issue
of New Atlas Shares to Option Scheme Participants 18 December 2009
------------------------------------------------------------------
Dispatch of holding statements
for New Atlas Shares                              22 December 2009
------------------------------------------------------------------
Trading of New Atlas Shares on ASX on
a normal T+3 settlement basis                     23 December 2009
==================================================================
All dates are indicative only and may change without notice.

The Boards of both Atlas and Warwick welcome the Court's approval of the Merger and look forward to the ongoing success of the merged company.


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## justiceotp (7 January 2010)

Its been very quiet here considering AGO has been gaining nicely with the other iron companies such as BRM - Brockman and FMG - Fortescue. 

We have a trading halt this morning in relation to a press article, does anyone know what article it is they are referring to ?


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## GaryS (7 January 2010)

This is from the Sydney Morning Herald web site

Iron ore miner Atlas Iron has requested a halt in the trading of its shares, saying it would make an announcement clarifying a newspaper article.

The West Australian newspaper said today, without citing sources, that Atlas Iron was close to finalising the sale of a majority stake in a 2-billion-tonne magnetite deposit in a deal the newspaper said could be worth close to $150 million.

It added that Atlas was also in advanced talks to sell its Wodgina deposit in Australia, tapped to become its second hematite iron ore mine.

Atlas shares closed at $2.13 on Wednesday


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## Gurgler (7 January 2010)

justiceotp said:


> We have a trading halt this morning in relation to a press article, does anyone know what article it is they are referring to ?




Hi justiceotp

Here is another (brief) article:
*Iron ore stocks soar as punters back the Pilbara dream*
Wednesday January 06, 2010 13:32:38 EST
Jan 06, 2010 (The Australian - ABIX via COMTEX News Network) -- 
Following the lack of any agreement with Chinese buyers on an iron ore benchmark price in 2009, Australian exporters of the commodity may now stand to gain an increase of 30% in new talks. The forecasts by experts have already caused a rise in the stocks of mining groups with iron ore assets in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. On 6 January 2010 Fortescue Metals Group closed 13% higher at $A5.20, while BHP Billiton was up $A0.54 at $A43.82 and Rio $A2.23 at $A78.58. Atlas Iron, Mount Gibson Iron Ore and Brockman Resources also closed between 4.45% and 7.85% higher. 

Publication Date: 7 January 2010 

FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED - ASX FMG
RIO TINTO LIMITED - ASX RIO
BHP BILLITON LIMITED - ASX BHP
ATLAS IRON LIMITED - ASX AGO
MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED - ASX MGX
BROCKMAN RESOURCES LIMITED - ASX BRM
CHINA IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION
STANDARD AND POOR'S ASX 200 INDEX
IG MARKETS LIMITED
Copyright 2010 LexisNexis Australia. All Rights Reserved.


Don't know which they are refering to. Awaiting a clarifying response!


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## adobee (7 January 2010)

Dam i thought this was looking good when it started head butting $2 .. but then forget .. should have got on it .. interesting to see what happens from here thought ..  Is Iron Ore back in favour..  ?>!!>!  FMG even moving up now ..


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## YELNATS (7 January 2010)

Gurgler said:


> Hi justiceotp
> 
> 
> 
> Don't know which they are refering to. Awaiting a clarifying response!




Of the two articles, I would think that the article that AGO would like to clarify is the one in the West Australian newspaper, as referenced by GaryS above.

Let's hope the clarification doesn't put too much of a dampener on their recent share price rise.


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## Gurgler (7 January 2010)

YELNATS said:


> Let's hope the clarification doesn't put too much of a dampener on their recent share price rise.




You were correct (about the focus of the article), and reaction has been positive - so far.


*CLARIFICATION ON PRESS ARTICLE
Atlas is currently exporting ore from it’s Pardoo iron ore Project, located 75 kilometres east of Port Hedland in the Pilbara of Western Australia. Atlas is also rapidly advancing the development of a second iron ore mine at Wodgina 100 kilometres south of Port Hedland and working to complete the process of engaging a strategic partner for the development of the 2Bt Ridley Magnetite Deposit located at Pardoo.
Following a request made by ASX to Atlas in response to an article in the media today, Atlas advises that:
● In relation to the Wodgina DSO Project development, which Atlas is currently working to bring into production, Atlas has received strong interest from steel mills seeking to acquire off take to this iron ore. While these discussions are advancing well, they are not complete; and
● In relation to engaging the development partner for the Ridley Magnetite Deposit, Atlas has received strong interest from capable organisations. While these discussions are advancing well, they are not complete.*


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## justiceotp (21 January 2010)

An announcement this evening from Atlas for anyone that hasn't noticed yet.


21 January 2010

ATLAS DOUBLES DSO RESOURCE INVENTORY TO 187Mt

Atlas Iron Limited [ASX Code: AGO] is pleased to announce that its resource inventory of Direct

Shipping Ore has doubled to 186.6 million tonnes at 56.6% Fe, paving the way for the planned

increases in production and sales revenue over the next three years.

HIGHLIGHTS
• 97% INCREASE IN DSO RESOURCES IN LAST 6 MONTHS
• 230% INCREASE IN DSO RESOURCES IN LAST 12 MONTHS
• SIGNIFICANT INFERRED RESOURCES CONVERTED TO MEASURED AND INDICATED
• EXPLORATION TARGET OF 430 TO 750Mt AT 57 TO 60% Fe

The revised DSO resource estimate represents an increase of 97% from the figures published in July

2009 and a rise of 230% from this time last year.

“Atlas has worked extremely hard in the field to grow our resource base during 2009, with 100,000m

drilled for the year. That’s been reflected in this result, with a 49% increase in resources on Atlas’

projects plus the additional 46 million tonnes coming from the recent merger with Warwick Resources”

commented David Flanagan, Atlas’ Managing Director.

“This is an excellent result for a company of Atlas’ size during one of the worst economic downturns
in the past 50 years.”

“This resource base sets up the Company to achieve its key goals of growing exports to an annual
rate of 6 million tonnes this year, rising to 12 millio tonnes in 2012.”


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## lyn1312 (24 January 2010)

My favourite stock for the past 3 years out of the 14 that i have-I reckon these guys are going to go sooo well. I'm not savvy with reading the charts etc but I have a good feeling about this company. I reckon they are going to outdo FMG - easy. WDYR?


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## TheAbyss (8 March 2010)

Trading halt for AGO.

Looks like the partner has been found for Ridley and a bid is in

They flagged an equity stake not so long ago for this so looks like good news ahead if you are partial to an increased Chinese presence (along with their millions).

They had to get funds to develop Ridley somehow so fine with me.

Onward and upward.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100308/pdf/31p48t1dqwgsxc.pdf


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## TheAbyss (8 March 2010)

Going through the broker reports it looks like the Ridley deal (if Ridley is the cause of the trading halt today) will have a potential two fold effect on the SP.

1. The removal of risk regarding capital costs associated with bringing Ridley into development (2.1 billion). A major partner means no capital rasings etc and the $146 million they have in the bank will at least double and there is no debt so a great result.

2. Most brokers have valued Ridley at $150m (32 cps) so anything above that will add to the current share price valuation. A report today suggested it could be as high as $230 million (see excerpt from Bloomberg report below). If this is the number ten this is worth an additional 16 cents per share to current valuation.

*Bloomberg quote*

The trading halt comes amid speculation that a consortium comprising of India's NMDC Ltd, Saudi-based ABS Consulting and ASX listed Boulder Steel Ltd have made a $230 million bid for a stake in Atlas' $3 billion Ridley project.

According to Bloomberg, the consortium has offered a non-binding bid for a 70 per cent stake in the project.


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## Idiode (10 March 2010)

The proposed merger of AGO and AXO looks like a good thing.

They have just completed negotiations for sharing of the Utah Point port facilities and a merger will only enhance their economies of scale and expertise.  

It simply makes good sense to combine their companies given the proximity to each other and the diversification of their resources.

On the negative side, it looks like there are a lot fingers in this pie, mainly as a result of the need for capital, but I guess Forescue, BHP and RIO all started in a similar vein.

AXO are in need of major capital injections to make their operation sucessful.  In some ways they look a little like Australian Magnesium in that they have a technically demanding resource and could easily fail if the capital runs out before the potential of resources are fully realised.

I bought AGO in 2007 when their reports indicated they would be earnings positive within 12 months.  I sold half at $4.10 and watched the other half go on a merry old ride.  Now, 3 years later, when they are exporting iron ore by the shipload they appear to be further away from profitability than they were in 2007, mainly because of the GFC and the cash needs of their exploration and mining operations.  Mr Market values them at $2.31 at close today.

What are the views of the Forum on their future prospects

Idiode


----------



## Puntin-on-miners (29 April 2010)

A bit of dilution with the recent capital raising. I am new to the markets & was only put on to Atlas 2 weeks ago. Everything looked positive & I bought in @ $2.95  This ain't an easy game. I'm hoping it's only a short term stagnation & things will push forward through 2010. Let's see how we go !


----------



## Puntin-on-miners (29 April 2010)

lyn1312 said:


> My favourite stock for the past 3 years out of the 14 that i have-I reckon these guys are going to go sooo well. I'm not savvy with reading the charts etc but I have a good feeling about this company. I reckon they are going to outdo FMG - easy. WDYR?




I'm with you lyn1312 --> lets support them in their efforts & ride along with Atlas, anyone watching Golden Gate Petroleum (GGP) & Austex Oil (AOK) ?


----------



## TheAbyss (28 May 2010)

Article in WA newspaper today as per below. Confirms what we already know. AGO will be a stellar IO performer.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/bu...35/atlas-could-reach-1b-revenue-in-two-years/

Atlas Iron could be turning over nearly $1 billion within two years, according to Credit Suisse analysts, who have crunched the numbers on the iron ore miner's latest production forecasts.

Weeks out from the release of scheme documents for Atlas' friendly takeover of Aurox Resources, Credit Suisse analysts headed by Nathan Littlewood have revised their earnings forecasts for the Pilbara miner.

On Credit Suisse's numbers, Atlas' revenue is poised to soar from an estimated $98.2 million in 2009-10 to $482.9 million in 2010-11 and $906.8 million in 2011-12, which would translate to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $479.9 million.

Atlas shipped just over one million tonnes of iron ore last year but has yet to turn a profit.

It recorded a $63.14 million loss for 2008-09 on revenue of $26.4 million, mostly as a result of a big exploration bill.

Credit Suisse's bullish figures may help ease concerns that Atlas has been too optimistic in its forecasts.

The company hopes to reach a production run rate of 6mtpa by the end of this year, increasing to 12mtpa by 2012 from its combined Pilbara operations.

In a note to clients, Mr Littlewood said that even on a worst-case infrastructure scenario Atlas' share price - it closed yesterday at $2.02, up 15.5 ¢ - was pricing in iron ore expectations of about $US65 a tonne, compared to spot prices of about $US136/t. Credit Suisse forecasts spot prices will hit $US175/t in the fourth quarter of this year.
Atlas' scheme meeting for the Aurox deal is scheduled for July, with the takeover to be finalised by August.


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## Bluebeard (17 September 2010)

AGO had a really strong finish today and finished at 2.27 - company made another positive announcement today so hopefully the next weeks bring some positive price action. 


PS- I hold AGO... None of my posts can be considered financial advice and people should always do their own research before making any investment decision.


----------



## Boggo (4 October 2010)

Looks like AGO has broken out today, its been hinting for a few days now.

(click to expand)


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## MEGALADON (29 October 2010)

If you like AGO but want to dilute your direct exposure and add in some exploration oportunities, then look at HANNANS REWARD LTD, a small cap with a decent holding in AGO, and current up coming drilling activity near St Barbaras holdings.


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## quinn123 (29 October 2010)

Yeah I have some of these: indirect exposure to AGO + potential exploration success...


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## youngone (19 November 2010)

*AGO on the rise*

Hi

Im new to stock share, have been looking at AGO. Comsec recently annouced a discussion, is this the right time to buy shares with AGO? are they a good company to add to my portfolio over the next 6 months?

Thanks.


Mining stocks are faring better in the wake of positive momentum on the London Metals Exchange. BHP Billiton (BHP) and Atlas Iron (AGO) have entered into discussions which could see AGO use one of BHP�s rail lines in the Pilbara. Shares in BHP are up 0.6pct to $43.72 while AGO is firmer by 5.8pct to $2.90

(comsecc 19/11)


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## ParleVouFrancois (19 November 2010)

*Re: AGO on the rise*

I'd assume you'd better post this on the AGO thread, Joe/anyothermoderator, could you please move this to the AGO thread and delete my comment? Thanks


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## fanger (23 December 2010)

I'm looking to get back in on AGO, I owned it about 6 months ago and made a tidy profit and I want to buy it on a pull back. I saw the other day it hit the low $2.80's but bounced back by the end of the day. Being the holidays I've got a ton of other things I'm doing and can't follow the market closely so can anybody give my a rough idea where this is heading short term?


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## fanger (14 January 2011)

Can anyboby tell me why AGO jumped 6% yeasterday?


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## Dukey (14 January 2011)

fanger said:


> Can anyboby tell me why AGO jumped 6% yeasterday?




they are taking over GIR - Giralia so maybe the market is seeing the synergies of such a match.  looks good to me too!


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## TheAbyss (15 January 2011)

Dukey said:


> they are taking over GIR - Giralia so maybe the market is seeing the synergies of such a match.  looks good to me too!




How about analysts noting a 7.5% increase in the price to china last month for IO and predicting another 7% increase in the price of IO in 1st quarter 2011? This saw most IO producers increase in price this week. 

Reasons given for the increases are 

"the likely causes of the increase include higher USD operating costs for producers due to the weaker Greenback, problems with short term iron ore supply out of India, an uptick in steel production (IISI crude steel index +4.6% for the month), and seasonal restocking by Chinese steelmakers."

imo, GIR went up due to their AGO offer linking to the share price of AGO so GIR increased proportionately to the AGO Share price.

There were quite a few articles this week regarding the IO price predictions. 

http://www.ironoreteam.com/content/iron-ore-prices-rise-77-q1-2011-reports

A possible scenario for upside (with very little evidence of activity so far) for me is that AGO have a few JV's with BHP. Wouldnt it be nice if BHP decided to mop up number 4 on the list of IO producers in Australia?

AGO will continue to grow shareholder value without an offer for takeover and i am comfortable holding for the mid to longer term however a BHP bid would provide most of the long term gain quickly (some cash would be left on the table by holders as AGO is a 30 year story minimum with what they have so far).

All is good for AGO holders in my view.


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## Sean K (15 January 2011)

Dukey said:


> they are taking over GIR - Giralia so maybe the market is seeing the synergies of such a match.  looks good to me too!



They've paid a pretty decent premium but long term an excellent fit. Creates scale to be a major player and potentially build their own infrastructure if required. Should bring a great deal more tonnage into market. Long term AGO looks very good with this addition. Won't be their last acquisition I feel. Unless they are taken themselves...


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## Dukey (25 February 2011)

Dunno if there are many around who are/were in on the AGO/GIR takeover-merger.

Anyway - AGO now have 87 odd% of Giralia. so all looking good for them there. The 'new' company should be have a great potential to develop _and ship _the combined resources I believe. 

AGO Have also just booked their maiden half year profit at $30  mill which is forecast to be even stronger in the next half.

Argonauts new research report (link below) has given a  value of $4.30 with a buy recommendation.

Research reports

without going into alot of detail of the report - 1 thing i see and really like:

- they forecast FY2011  Earnings Per Share at 16.7 cents per share.

*Rising significantly* to 37.4 cps in FY2012

... suggests a good couple of years in the making for the new improved AGO.

I was thinking about selling off some of my holding after the takeover - but, given this outlook and capital gains issues I think I'll just sit for now 

Anyone else still in here... ?


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## TheAbyss (25 February 2011)

Dukey said:


> Dunno if there are many around who are/were in on the AGO/GIR takeover-merger.
> 
> Anyway - AGO now have 87 odd% of Giralia. so all looking good for them there. The 'new' company should be have a great potential to develop _and ship _the combined resources I believe.
> 
> ...





If there was a like button i would click it. In and holding. My SMSF will not be selling in the immediate future.

Lot to like. The sliding valuation scale for the price of IO insightful and indicates that the $4.30 ps valuation is very conservative.


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## Dukey (25 February 2011)

yup - fully agree.

.. and nice to know i'm not alone!!


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## sargez900 (26 February 2011)

Dukey said:


> yup - fully agree.
> 
> .. and nice to know i'm not alone!!




No your not alone. Ther's a few of us around although we are fairly silent. I've been on this one for a couple of years now.


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## TheAbyss (2 March 2011)

Been trying to put a few targets together for LYC and AGO and have come up with the below.

As you can see LYC and AGO are following the typical miners share price cycle chart and AGO have quite a bit of upside left yet imo.


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## Dukey (4 March 2011)

Well with the T/O of GIR - AGO now goes into the ASX100 index 

(all that sounds like another language doesn't it!)

- certainly won't hurt proceedings - institutional demand from index funds  etc.

- IMO - LMAOF...LOL.


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## TheAbyss (4 March 2011)

Should be all systems go however looks like the shorts have got AGO at the moment and maybe a bit of a pull back short term but still LT bull here.


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## VSntchr (15 March 2011)

I just remembered this morning that the 18th is the date which the funds will be filling their boots with all the new inclusions to the indicies. Looks like they will be picking up some bargains...

I usually avoid commodity "price takers" stocks, but atlas iron appears to be trading at a quite nice discount to my projected value. Great prospects for this one, not letting the short term worries influence my decision on this one.


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## fanger (15 March 2011)

VSntchr said:


> I just remembered this morning that the 18th is the date which the funds will be filling their boots with all the new inclusions to the indicies. Looks like they will be picking up some bargains...
> 
> I usually avoid commodity "price takers" stocks, but atlas iron appears to be trading at a quite nice discount to my projected value. Great prospects for this one, not letting the short term worries influence my decision on this one.




Whats your projected value?


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## adobee (17 March 2011)

As a long time fan of AGO just thought I would check it out today ..
Looking at three year chart is quite eerie in that we have just hit the same high as in June 2008 when it tumbled back to 40c..  $4 seems to really be a nemisis for AGO ..
Dont think that will happen again but definetly have AGO on my list of potential buys


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## pixel (17 March 2011)

adobee said:


> As a long time fan of AGO just thought I would check it out today ..
> Looking at three year chart is quite eerie in that we have just hit the same high as in June 2008 when it tumbled back to 40c..  $4 seems to really be a nemisis for AGO ..
> Dont think that will happen again but definetly have AGO on my list of potential buys



 Good idea, adobee
I checked them out a few weeks ago and decided to "buy a lotto ticket" as you would call it, on the expectation that the current area around $3.20 should really hold, based on the role this price level has been playing as support or resistance several times since last November.
I checked my tea leaves on the 5-minute chart and decided it's worth the risk.

Note how AGO has a habit of closing gaps before too long, I also find the only open gap enticingly high, promising a return of about 15% on my 3.20 entry. No sheep stations, and a Close below $3.10 would stop me out.




PS: I also like the confluence of 200-day EMA with the mid-point of the 12-month range. Even if $3.10 were broken, I'd give it another shot around $2.80.


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## Miner (1 June 2011)

adobee said:


> As a long time fan of AGO just thought I would check it out today ..
> Looking at three year chart is quite eerie in that we have just hit the same high as in June 2008 when it tumbled back to 40c..  $4 seems to really be a nemisis for AGO ..
> Dont think that will happen again but definetly have AGO on my list of potential buys




Hi Adobee/ Pixel

You two have been posting on AGO.
Is there any new update on AGO and its movement ?

Regards


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## Idiode (9 September 2011)

Miner said:


> Hi Adobee/ Pixel
> 
> You two have been posting on AGO.
> Is there any new update on AGO and its movement ?
> ...




I note today AGO says it is issuing an additional 22 million securities.  
This will surely dilute the SP.
I don't know what is behind this capital raising. Does anyone know why?
(pay off debt, buy more assets or simply capitalising on the market)
At least they have advanced to the realm of "dividend payer" albeit 3 cents/share.


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## TheAbyss (14 September 2011)

Idiode said:


> I note today AGO says it is issuing an additional 22 million securities.
> This will surely dilute the SP.
> I don't know what is behind this capital raising. Does anyone know why?
> (pay off debt, buy more assets or simply capitalising on the market)
> At least they have advanced to the realm of "dividend payer" albeit 3 cents/share.




Can i suggest you do some research? Something along the lines of AGO by Ferraus should answer your questions


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## shinobi346 (21 September 2011)

And the takeover is happening. This couldn't have come at a better time to tell wham-bam-no-thanks-mam to go away. Looks like wham bam helped Atlas to get over the line too. >90% acceptances in a little over 2 weeks. Quite impressive and it shows people were very keen to get this takeover going.


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## notting (10 April 2012)

AGO having a little picnic all by itself today, not really anything that I can see as to why. Looks short term positive?
Feel free to add anything if there is something technical going on.
Otherwise I'd suspect something positive to come fundamentally.
I have a little


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## Klogg (10 April 2012)

From my experience, AGO seems to have a mind of its own...

Although it is a great company IMO (I hold)


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## Muschu (10 April 2012)

Maybe there is something in the wind.  Maybe not.  But I declare a hold as well.  At least they are in production.  A poor time to be taken over?


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## notting (25 July 2012)

Clearly Iron Oar prices are going to fall below 42/45 per ton which would put debtless Atlas on the back foot after todays report!!
or perhaps it's about to make a bid for BHP
Really


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## Bibimbap (25 July 2012)

I don't know what the problem with AGO is....
It's cash positive
It's book value is $2.11
It's gonna double its iron ore production next year. 
It's a takeover target...

Yet I seem to be catching a falling knife, and have lost lots of money on this stock.   My average cost is now $2.71 per share, with lots of shares.... 

Investors concerned about the capital costs with the rail construction maybe?


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## Klogg (25 July 2012)

Bibimbap said:


> I don't know what the problem with AGO is....
> It's cash positive
> It's book value is $2.11
> It's gonna double its iron ore production next year.
> ...




It's an over-reaction to the price of Iron Ore IMO. As soon as Chinese PMI recovers and their infrastructure stimulus kicks in, this will climb.


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## Miner (28 August 2012)

Klogg said:


> It's an over-reaction to the price of Iron Ore IMO. As soon as Chinese PMI recovers and their infrastructure stimulus kicks in, this will climb.




It is the tell tale story with Atlas Iron came through financial results

http://www.businessday.com.au/busin...ut-an-iron-ore-price-rise-20120827-24wkf.html

Their project is headed by some one who has never delivered a project but too many studies in Engenium . Many of those studies were desk top. Further the next level people are very inexperienced to manage consultants or contractors. Insult to injury, the consultant engaged to manage the projects has commissioned some one is very talented except never delivered a project. 

With such a high stake on capital investment with Atlas, the rewards are far fetched to be seen. Now with iron ore prices going to plummet further , next year for AGO I am afraid will not exceed recent performances (or lack of it) 

DNH


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## notting (5 September 2012)

Iron oar blow off low?


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## prawn_86 (5 September 2012)

I have been watching this one with interest. I haven't done many actual sums yet but am getting close to doing a full review. Does anyone know what their marginal cost of  production is?


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## notting (5 September 2012)

From memory it's between 46 and 48


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## tech/a (5 September 2012)

notting said:


> Iron oar blow off low?




All I see is a low.
Nothing exciting.


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## notting (5 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> All I see is a low.
> Nothing exciting.




OK Thanks for that.
Got a little excited over this.


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## notting (7 September 2012)

China Infrastructure stocks just went through the roof on plans
CSR  %8.75
China Railway %7.10
China Rail Const.  %6.5


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## mysteriousbrad (18 October 2012)

Hmmm Trading Halt... an acquisition maybe?


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## pixel (19 October 2012)

mysteriousbrad said:


> Hmmm Trading Halt... an acquisition maybe?




nothing that dramatic:
AGO secured a US$ Loan to fund an expansion; they also promised cost savings.
A little later, the Quarterlies came out too. 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=ago&timeframe=D&period=W

Read all 3 reports before Open - they'll resume trading with group 1.


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## tinhat (15 February 2013)

wow - the iron ore miners are all over the place this morning. BCI, MGX up, RIO, BHP, AGO down.

Massive volume being traded in AGO this morning. 3.4m shares and we aren't through the opening hour yet. What do people make of that after the big day AGO had yesterday (2.5m shares traded)?


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## tinhat (15 February 2013)

Sorry, cancel my last post. I misread my chart. Average daily volume traded (past 22 days) is circa 11 million per day. Yesterday's volume was 25 million. It's still shaping up as a big volume day but I misread the figures.


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## notting (15 February 2013)

I was possessed by some kind of spirit yesterday and sold it!
It went up a few % after I did too!
I think the spirit is called Mr.Weakhand.
Look at the volume on the run up yesterday!
BHP, RIO FMG all had good volume break out kind of days.
Only an idiot would have sold it. 

Will look to get back in and try and be a bit more courageous soon.
Would love a dip.
If FMG is worth 5.30 this is worth 4 easy.
Whether it gets there, I don't know.
If the stock market was realistic neither of them are worth anything like that.
But as we know the stock market is what it is.


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## Not Rene (26 February 2013)

Atlas media release today

DECEMBER 2012 HALF YEAR RESULTS
In a volatile and sharply weaker iron ore market, Atlas has made a cash surplus from operations2 of
A$70M (2011 - A$164M). During the period, the Company also commenced exports from the Mt Dove
mine, started development at the Abydos mine and shipped a record total of 3.34Mt (WMT).
The very strong recovery in iron ore prices is now generating substantial margins, as illustrated by an
unaudited cash surplus from operations2 of $32M for the month of January, 2013. Atlas is now
producing at a rate of 8Mtpa and is on track to increase production to 10Mtpa by the end of June 2013.
KEY POINTS
Financial
 Cash surplus from operations2 of A$70M, being ~$20/t
 Unaudited cash surplus from operations2 of $32M for January 2013 reflects an average realised
iron ore price per tonne of USD$130 CFR DMT compared to the half-year average price per
tonne of USD$98 CFR DMT (including Value Fines)
 Underlying Profit after tax1 of $1M (Dec 2011: Underlying Profit after tax1 of $62M)
 Statutory Net Loss After Tax of $256M adversely impacted by previously announced non-cash
impairment charge on capitalised tenement costs and non-cash write-down on non-core assets of
$258M
 Half Year cash operating costs/t (FOB, excluding royalties) are in line with revised guidance of
$46 - $50/t for the 2013 financial year. Full year guidance for FY2013 remains at $46 - $50/t
 US$325M financing (US$275M Term Loan B and undrawn AUD$50M revolving facility)
completed, ensuring Atlas is fully funded for its Horizon 1 projects including port facilities
 $423M cash on hand as at 31 December 2012 includes Term Loan B facility and is after
spending $37M on working capital increases, payment of $49M in stamp duty (FY2011 Giralia
acquisition), paying $20M cash in dividend and spending $136M on expansion works
Horizon 2
 Negotiations with a number of infrastructure owners and developers are progressing with the
intent of unlocking the value of Atlas’ Horizon 2 assets


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## notting (26 February 2013)

A Reversal out of recent dip?


----------



## Boggo (6 March 2013)

notting said:


> A Reversal out of recent dip?




Maybe this time notting ?

(click to expand)


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## Gringotts Bank (13 March 2013)

I think it might be ready to move up.  Whenever I've been first in the queue on the buy side today, whoever is "in charge" is doing everything possible to avoid selling to me.  If/when I get sold into, the price plunges then recovers just as quickly.... [edit] except just then...


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## notting (15 March 2013)

IO not having such a bad day considering headlines like this


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/china-crackdown-on-property-market-sends-iron-ore-price-sliding/story-e6frg9df-1226598054093

AGO has buyers hitting it hard at a critical inflexion point. 1.205

Smart money?


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## skc (15 March 2013)

notting said:


> IO not having such a bad day considering headlines like this
> 
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/china-crackdown-on-property-market-sends-iron-ore-price-sliding/story-e6frg9df-1226598054093
> ...




I am not sure it'd hold today.

P.S. That went just as I was typing...


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## Gringotts Bank (15 March 2013)

I'm having a very bad run lately and need to lay low for a while.

In at 1.34, out at 1.26.

I'd look at getting in again at 1.34 but I can't see that happening short term. With Schroders (?) selling like crazy, I would want evidence of that drying up first.


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## notting (15 March 2013)

skc said:


> P.S. That went just as I was typing...




Thanks for lettin me know


----------



## jameslittle (26 March 2013)

Any ideas why Atlas down so much today. % fall much larger than other io miners


----------



## fanger (27 March 2013)

jameslittle said:


> Any ideas why Atlas down so much today. % fall much larger than other io miners




All the miners are on the nose at the moment simple as that, looks like it was AGO's turn to get beaten up more than the rest today.


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## Gringotts Bank (27 March 2013)

If I was Schroders I'd let it trade above 1.13 at close then sell the last lot of shares (??) into tomorrow's run.  What I mean is they could "create" a run tomorrow if they wanted to.  It looks ripe, but it's all about the big seller and what they do.


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## Gringotts Bank (27 March 2013)

Would anyone know much of today's volume is going through at the offer price?


----------



## skyQuake (27 March 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Would anyone know much of today's volume is going through at the offer price?








Bid is red fyi

No clear winner, but doesnt look too good.

Also, FMG upgraded by JPM so its dragging iron ore names up


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## skc (27 March 2013)

skyQuake said:


> View attachment 51493
> 
> 
> Bid is red fyi
> ...




SkyQ, where do you get those charts from?


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## skyQuake (27 March 2013)

skc said:


> SkyQ, where do you get those charts from?




Bloomberg excel template. 

I was trying to make one myself till I discovered that. Saved me a Lot of work!

However it feels a bit like a lagging indicator though, still playing around and seeing how it acts.


----------



## skc (27 March 2013)

skyQuake said:


> Bloomberg excel template.
> 
> I was trying to make one myself till I discovered that. Saved me a Lot of work!
> 
> However it feels a bit like a lagging indicator though, still playing around and seeing how it acts.




Thanks. It pretty much confirms what you'd already see on the price action I think...


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## jameslittle (28 March 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> If I was Schroders I'd let it trade above 1.13 at close then sell the last lot of shares (??) into tomorrow's run.  What I mean is they could "create" a run tomorrow if they wanted to.  It looks ripe, but it's all about the big seller and what they do.




Hi , any idea on who is buying.


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## notting (2 May 2013)

Oh! Kenneth Edward Brinsden director buys 212000 shares on market on  1st May.  AGO Announces new significant discovery on May 3.  Gee, I wonder if that could be insider trading.  F_cking Joke!


----------



## tinhat (2 May 2013)

notting said:


> Oh! Kenneth Edward Brinsden director buys 212000 shares on market on  1st May.  AGO Announces new significant discovery on May 3.  Gee, I wonder if that could be insider trading.  F_cking Joke!




Can I borrow your time machine?


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## Country Lad (2 May 2013)

notting said:


> Oh! Kenneth Edward Brinsden director buys 212000 shares on market on  1st May.  AGO Announces new significant discovery on May 3.  Gee, I wonder if that could be insider trading.  F_cking Joke!




Nope, not that or any other kind of insider trading.  He bought the shares AFTER the announcement.  

These sort of  posts, shot from the hip without doing the right research are what gives forums a bad name and causes forum owners to be sued.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## notting (2 May 2013)

Glad to be corrected, sorry. forums are good cause they help sort people out !
Thanks Lad


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 May 2013)

Vic 2b pattern today.  Minimal overhead res.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 June 2013)

Bit of a head fake on 29/5.  Might follow through now.


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## Gringotts Bank (17 July 2013)

Last 5 mins has seen the 86c resistance bought up.  Looks like it might do ok.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 August 2013)

One of those stocks that likes to buck the broader trend.  Or is something up here?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> One of those stocks that likes to buck the broader trend.  Or is something up here?




Nothing up.  Just resources kicking off again.  Should have got some FMG too.


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## Gringotts Bank (23 August 2013)

Interesting SP movements.  Will be good buying around 70-75c, if it happens.  HC talking about a bounce, so probably lower ahead.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 September 2013)

Been watching and waiting for two months!  Line broken at last.


----------



## pixel (16 September 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Been watching and waiting for two months!  Line broken at last.




Good luck, GB
Question is though: Will the line stay broken? I have a slightly different line for falling resistance, that had been broken a couple of times recently, but AGO kept dropping back below. The (MACD) momentum is still toying with the Bullish promise; unless that's sorted, I'll only play short-term swingers.


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## Gringotts Bank (16 September 2013)

pixel said:


> Good luck, GB
> Question is though: Will the line stay broken?




Thanks pixel.  I've been tracking the sentiment on HC and the last few days it's been much more positive regarding broker upgrades and news releases.  It certainly needs to close at or above 90.5c for the real deal... or rail deal.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 September 2013)

What a dog.  Massive sells going through since yesterday.  Out.

[edit] And seconds later a trading halt.  This will be very timely or very untimely.


----------



## Boggo (18 September 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> *I've been tracking the sentiment on HC *and the last few days it's been much more positive regarding broker upgrades and news releases.






Gringotts Bank said:


> What a dog.  Massive sells going through since yesterday.  Out.




And the lesson for today is


----------



## Country Lad (18 September 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I've been tracking the sentiment on HC ............




Funny, my tea leaves were saying the opposite, but then the tea leaves reading has always been more reliable than HC.



Boggo said:


> And the lesson for today is






Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## jameslittle (9 October 2013)

Big move in price today just after lunch.No announcements to market though that I am aware of. Anybody have any ideas why jumped. I own some ago.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 October 2013)

jameslittle said:


> Big move in price today just after lunch.No announcements to market though that I am aware of. Anybody have any ideas why jumped. I own some ago.




Breakout on the weekly.


----------



## pixel (10 October 2013)

jameslittle said:


> Big move in price today just after lunch.No announcements to market though that I am aware of. Anybody have any ideas why jumped. I own some ago.







Yesterday's P&V move may well have been technically motivated. Even the ASX was puzzled by the P&V spike. Let's see how today's Market reacts to AGO's routine "We have no idea why..." response.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displ...;idsId=01451937

In early August, the Weekly chart has signaled an end to the years-long price decline; but it's been sideways from there and may still repeat a similar 5-months consolidation, with disappointing outcome, that ran from September last year.


----------



## Not Rene (13 November 2013)

Latest Comsec recommendation report -


STRONGER CHINESE STEEL SUPPORTS HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES
• Following our recent China tour, CBA has revised up its CY13 Chinese steel production forecast
from 749Mt to 783Mt. We have also revised up CY14 Chinese steel from 781Mt to 822Mt. Please
refer to a separate Commodity Strategy note, published on 27 September 2013.
• The additional 40Mt of Chinese steel production in CY14 will consume an additional 65Mt of iron ore
production. This will absorb a significant proportion of the new 100Mt of seaborne supply which is
expected from Australia in CY14.
• The net effect is that less high-cost Chinese domestic iron ore supply will be rationed out of the
market and the market clearing price for iron ore will be higher. We upgrade CY14 from USD107/t to
USD120/t and CY15 from USD100/t to USD108/t.
SIGNIFICANT EARNINGS UPGRADES FOR ALL IRON ORE COMPANIES
• The new commodity price forecasts result in the largest upgrades to BHP and RIO earnings
forecasts for three years; 14-20% in 2014 and 10-11% in 2015.
• FMG’s operating leverage is higher and the upgrades are more substantial; 51% in FY14 and 46% in
FY15. More importantly, FMG is now strongly free cash flow positive (USD2.5b in FY14 and
USD3.8b in FY15) and will begin to rapidly reduce its excessively high debt levels.
• Upgrades to the juniors are even more substantial, given their higher costs and lower margins. Full
details are in Figure 2.
Figure 1: Iron ore equities - recommendations and price targets
Price Price Target Upside Recommendation
Company ASX (A$) (A$)
BHP Billiton BHP 35.31 43.00 22% Overweight
Rio Tinto RIO 60.29 71.00 18% Neutral
Fortescue Metals FMG 4.78 5.50 15% Overweight
*Atlas Iron AGO 0.85 1.43 69% Overweight*
Western Desert Resources WDR 0.68 1.05 55% Overweight
Centaurus Metals CTM 0.17 0.32 93% Overweight
BC Iron BCI 4.44 6.01 35% Overweight
Mount Gibson MGX 0.72 0.62 -13% Underweight
Gindalbie Metals GBG 0.13 0.10 -23% Underweight
Source: IRESS, CBA estimates
INVESTMENT VIEW
• We maintain Overweight recommendations on BHP and FMG and Neutral on RIO. The diversified
miners will generate higher free cash flow over the next 2-3 years as volumes rise, costs reduce and
capex is pulled back.
• Of the junior iron ore producers, our preference is for BC Iron and Atlas Iron. We also like the new
project upside in WDR and CTM.


----------



## Country Lad (16 November 2013)

pixel said:


> ............Yesterday's P&V move may well have been technically motivated. Even the ASX was puzzled by the P&V spike...............




Looking back yes you were correct.  Went on with it, formed a flag the broke out of that.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Not Rene (19 November 2013)

Current Comsec recommendation

EMERGING IRON ORE PRODUCERS – MAKING
HAY
IRON ORE CONTINUES TO POSITIVELY SURPRISE
• The emerging iron ore companies have outperformed the market in the September quarter, thanks to
strength in iron ore prices and strong execution of new projects.
AGO PRESSING AHEAD TO 12MTPA, WDR CONTINUES TO HIT MILESTONES
•
Atlas Iron:
AGO continues to push ahead with its growth ambitions. Abydos has come into
production and Mt Webber will lift production to 12mtpa in 2014. Exploration results at Corunna
Downs are encouraging. FMG is considering increasing production beyond 155mt, so AGO’s port
allocation at Port Hedland will have value in negotiating a rail solution for Horizon 2. 

AGO price target  $1.43


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 November 2013)

Waiting for something to trigger this.  Might come soon.


----------



## tinhat (7 January 2014)

Big sell-off today. 17 million shares traded already (12:30pm) and down over 6%.


----------



## stormboy (7 January 2014)

I sold out yesterday, quite happy about it after today!


----------



## piggybank (8 January 2014)

Looks like the recent support of $1.085 has now become the resistance (after today's action).

The candle yesterday, broke through and closed below the 200ema.


----------



## Poonam (11 January 2014)

The price is now at $0.97 after falling 6.5 cents on Friday.  That is a big fall.   I suppose it is a one trick pony relying on the iron ore into China, hence the price. (?)
 It appears to have long term prospects.  The business still looks sound with low debt and cash in hand plus proven mineral reserves.


----------



## pixel (11 January 2014)

piggybank said:


> Looks like the recent support of $1.085 has now become the resistance (after today's action).
> 
> The candle yesterday, broke through and closed below the 200ema.
> 
> View attachment 56207




If we use Fibonacci numbers for our EMAs, the break has occurred even earlier. Not only that, when it happened (at $1.14 on the 7th) the Trailing Stop (red arrow) that was triggered when the sp fell below the Volatility Envelope, was also vindicated.





For a brief moment on Thursday, I had considered possible support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level; however, at about 14:00, the Intraday chart overturned any earlier suggestion of a possible Long position, and Friday's drop to 50% provided additional proof of that.


----------



## Poonam (11 January 2014)

pixel said:


> If we use Fibonacci numbers for our EMAs, the break has occurred even earlier. Not only that, when it happened (at $1.14 on the 7th) the Trailing Stop (red arrow) that was triggered when the sp fell below the Volatility Envelope, was also vindicated.
> 
> View attachment 56263
> 
> ...




Excuse the ignorance, but what does all that mean?


----------



## pixel (11 January 2014)

Poonam said:


> Excuse the ignorance, but what does all that mean?




To a Technical Trader, it means that sufficient warning signs could be found in the chart/s to get out in time. even go short when the breakdown occurred.
Following the breakdown, potential support levels could be identified, where alerts would notify said traders to take a closer look. By "closer look", I mean re-assess the situation and consider whether to buy back (more than one sold), or to lower the alert to the next level. That's what I did on Thursday, and am now waiting for the next alert. 
If AGO drops further, I'll wipe the alerts and remove AGO from my watchlist until a new setup evolves.


----------



## Poonam (14 January 2014)

pixel said:


> To a Technical Trader, it means that sufficient warning signs could be found in the chart/s to get out in time. even go short when the breakdown occurred.
> Following the breakdown, potential support levels could be identified, where alerts would notify said traders to take a closer look. By "closer look", I mean re-assess the situation and consider whether to buy back (more than one sold), or to lower the alert to the next level. That's what I did on Thursday, and am now waiting for the next alert.
> If AGO drops further, I'll wipe the alerts and remove AGO from my watchlist until a new setup evolves.



Thanks for that explanation Pixel.
It seems that AGO are going through a difficult period - their price reflects this and has fallen.  I suppose the question to be asked is whether there still a sound reason to buy at the current price.


----------



## Miner (24 August 2014)

AGO was behaving very well compared to MGX and similar. 
Sudden fall however suggests some inside story and company may be coming with a bad result or news.
Is there some one following this scrip can shed light ? Chartists ? Any comparision between AGO, BCI, ARI  and MGX ?


----------



## edgykativu (26 August 2014)

the costs are really tricky any pullback can be a problem for this one 
id rather stay out


----------



## Miner (26 September 2014)

Miner said:


> AGO was behaving very well compared to MGX and similar.
> Sudden fall however suggests some inside story and company may be coming with a bad result or news.
> Is there some one following this scrip can shed light ? Chartists ? Any comparision between AGO, BCI, ARI  and MGX ?






edgykativu said:


> the costs are really tricky any pullback can be a problem for this one
> id rather stay out




EDGYKATIVU

I wished to have shorted on your advise to make a fortune by now.
Very well commented back in late August considering today's price of AGO


----------



## skc (6 November 2014)

AGO trading below GFC low. 




The AGM presentation last week indicated that all-in cash cost of A$65-70/wmt (US$56-60/wmt). While the last quarter activity showed that they only achievfed a headline pric eof $US 69.62 / dmt. And that was when the iron ore price was around $90/dmt.

Does anyone know how to calculate WMT (wet metric tonne) to DMT equivalent? Why do they report these in different units?


----------



## Miner (6 November 2014)

skc said:


> AGO trading below GFC low.
> 
> View attachment 60164
> 
> ...




DMT = without any moisture dry tonnes as the name implies. The moisture level varies between sites depending on dust content and how they suppressed the dust level. The cost of sending more weight metric ton (WMT) means also you are sending water by the ship at the price of iron ore. Higher the price of iorn ore, drier is the ore means more money to the supplier in terms of shipping cost savings.
The supplier and the purchaser agrees with water content by taking various sampling when accepting a DMT equivalent.

If you agree to supply 100 t of Iron ore concentrate at 60%Fe with 12% moisture at a price of 90 dmtu, that means your revenue will be:
100 t * 0.88 * 0.6 * 80  = US$4224.
So  100 metric tons at 12% moisture = 88 dmt
DSO is very beneficial but not every company exports DSO. The situation worsens when you produce magnetite ore compared to hametite. Often the processing cost of low grade of Fe goes up to make higher grade. So it is not uncommon for some miners to save expensive cost of treatment in Australian land and to ship low grade ore in a cost effective way.
Thanks


----------



## skc (6 November 2014)

Miner said:


> DMT = without any moisture dry tonnes as the name implies. The moisture level varies between sites depending on dust content and how they suppressed the dust level. The cost of sending more weight metric ton (WMT) means also you are sending water by the ship at the price of iron ore. Higher the price of iorn ore, drier is the ore means more money to the supplier in terms of shipping cost savings.
> The supplier and the purchaser agrees with water content by taking various sampling when accepting a DMT equivalent.
> 
> If you agree to supply 100 t of Iron ore concentrate at 60%Fe with 12% moisture at a price of 90 dmtu, that means your revenue will be:
> ...




Thanks Miner. Most educational.


----------



## Wysiwyg (20 November 2014)

Down 82% this year. Buy low, sell lower. Found support at 55c and 35c for a couple of weeks. Now 20c has stacked up for a few days. Lacked the dump volume on 19th Nov. that the others had.


----------



## notting (12 January 2015)

A lot of automatic stop losses, automatic profit taking got triggered by the momentary blip up in the IO price, whilst traders where on holiday.
Made for many small players to leap through the roof.
With no supply as everyone alive was on holiday.
Looks like the holidays over and their putting their shorts back on today!


----------



## Miner (13 January 2015)

notting said:


> A lot of automatic stop losses, automatic profit taking got triggered by the momentary blip up in the IO price, whilst traders where on holiday.
> Made for many small players to leap through the roof.
> With no supply as everyone alive was on holiday.
> Looks like the holidays over and their putting their shorts back on today!




Not happy. They should have been in holiday and I could get the tipping prize. Now I will be behind. LOL

Seriously, the price rise of AGO was over shot on the same was of ARI. But when I see BCI,  MGX and FMG did not move up so it was sure that iron ore price or future was not responsible for price up but something else which articulately explained. 
Thanks a lot


----------



## burglar (13 January 2015)

Miner said:


> Not happy. They should have been in holiday and I could get the tipping prize. Now I will be behind. LOL
> 
> Seriously, the price rise of AGO was over shot on the same was of ARI. But when I see BCI,  MGX and FMG did not move up so it was sure that iron ore price or future was not responsible for price up but something else which articulately explained.
> Thanks a lot




Miner!

There is a new competition, annual.

You might like it!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29362&p=856542#post856542


----------



## Miner (13 January 2015)

burglar said:


> Miner!
> 
> There is a new competition, annual.
> 
> ...




Ha Ha
I did put some stocks on that.
Who knows?
thanks a lot


----------



## notting (14 January 2015)

> Citi analysts lowered their iron ore forecast for this year and next,
> forecasting that the iron ore market does not fully recover to its long-term equilibrium
> of $65/t till the fourth-quarter of 2016, versus the first quarter previously.
> Specifically, Citi now sees iron ore to average at $66/t in Q1, $56/t in Q2, and dip all
> ...




WOW.  Imagine being able to pick IO prices like that.
These guys are amazing.


----------



## skc (7 April 2015)

AGO shares are suspended this morning pending a review of everything. 

Will they mothball operations? Will they be able to do this under current ownership, or under administration? There are port capacity issues and break fee in contracts to consider as well. 

I remember looking at them some months ago when they actually had a clean balance sheet with no debt. You can make the case that, the AGO management and the lenders were just as silly as each other to create this kind of leveraged (financially) leveraged (operationally) beast. During the good times returns were awesome, and in the bad times, it goes bust.

Or may be it's the investor's responsibility to be aware of the beast they are riding and partake accordingly? Nah... it's much easier to blame someone else!


----------



## So_Cynical (7 April 2015)

skc said:


> AGO shares are suspended this morning pending a review of everything.!




Some media speculation that this is one of those trading halts that never gets lifted.


----------



## piggybank (10 April 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> Some media speculation that this is one of those trading halts that never gets lifted.




It got lifted today but sadly its means more pain for the workers and their families 

More than 500 people are set to lose their jobs as Atlas Iron suspends all mining operations because of plunging iron ore prices. The West Australian miner will cease all operations by the end of April, as aggressive cost cutting has been unable to offset the financial impact of steep falls in the price of Australia's largest export. "To suspend our operations, with the impact that will have on so many committed and talented people, is an extremely difficult decision" managing director Ken Brinsden said. "I sincerely thank all those who have worked so hard to build Atlas production base and those who have worked furiously to maintain Atlas competitive position over the past 15 months, in the face of increasingly oppressive market conditions".

More can be read here:- https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-iron-ore-miner-halts-074708050.html

And one from the company:- http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AGO&E=ASX&N=715499

*Who is going to be the next one?*


----------



## skc (10 April 2015)

piggybank said:


> It got lifted today but sadly its means more pain for the workers and their families
> 
> More than 500 people are set to lose their jobs as Atlas Iron suspends all mining operations because of plunging iron ore prices. The West Australian miner will cease all operations by the end of April, as aggressive cost cutting has been unable to offset the financial impact of steep falls in the price of Australia's largest export. "To suspend our operations, with the impact that will have on so many committed and talented people, is an extremely difficult decision" managing director Ken Brinsden said. "I sincerely thank all those who have worked so hard to build Atlas production base and those who have worked furiously to maintain Atlas competitive position over the past 15 months, in the face of increasingly oppressive market conditions".
> 
> ...




The suspension of ASX trading has NOT been lifted. Stopping operations is likely to have triggered debt convenant... so they need the lenders to agree some sort of work out. The share will (and should) remain suspended from trading for the time being.

GBG is probably the next to fall, according to AFR. It's only valued at $30m however. And you wonder how SDL is still valued at $60m...


----------



## Miner (11 April 2015)

AGO has collapsed because of many things and prime reason was a poorly constructed Feasibility without proper risk management rested on a pack of cards to get collapsed on poor iron ore price.
There was no robustness in the working strategies.
Personally I have lost a big investment on AGO and thought to reproduce some email exchanged between the AGO Chairman in November 2014 when he was still singing swan song.
========

On Wednesday, 18 March 2015, 3:27, xxxxxx> wrote:


Hi David

Hope you are well.
I am still holding the paper showing me an investor (joke - it should say I am a looser) of AGO.
What a piece of paper to be cremated with my coffin stating Roger was an utter failure to bestow trust on a company Atlas Iron.
Every day is an excitement to read about share price of AGO and to see how shareholders are paying the top notched management who are not shy of taking pay cuts (as a minimum) by 80% to retain their job or to quit with grace.
Looks like my communication as a shareholder  are not reaching the company chairman.
Regardless, I wish you all the best as the biggest shareholder but equally unfortunate with a leadership team who rose with the flow but now not able to demonstrate result when market is behaving towards south
Leadership comes when the ship is sinking .

Regards

vvvvvvvvvv





On* Friday, 6 March 2015, 10:09,     om> wrote:
*

Dear David
Good morning.
Another solid day for AGO.
It was so nice to see a miniscule investment from CEO Ken to purchase AGO shares. It was a token investment to demonstrate his faith on purchasing the shares at 20 cents and no matter how small the value could have been.
Today the AGO share has slumped again. I am now in a situation to treat my super investment on AGO as paper values.
All I can do use the paper to congratulate the great team who are managing the great company and creating values for shareholders.
Do I need to see a million dollar person to do it ? Probably a Fish and Chip seller should be able to turn this result over so many years and make it better.
Myself not compent to decide that is why I thought we have competent people to manage the company.
I* want to be seen as correct without caveat through shareholders value.* NO REPLY RECEIVED 

Regards

XXXXX


On Saturday, 28 February 2015, 14:01, xx  xxxxxx> wrote:


Dear David
Trust you are well.
Looking back I have had interaction with you in Nov 2014 with some hope for a miracle.
Now my investment on AGO has dropped down by 80% . I am not a billionaire like few to digest this like a pinch of salt but it has affected my super fund drastically.
I am not making any derogatory comment or frustration but congratulating you as the Chairman and largest single shareholder and our CEO Ken for an outstanding performance to achieve the following :
WA miner Atlas Iron made a record $1.1 billion dollar loss for the half year because of writedowns thanks to the falling iron ore price.

A mere 15% reduction on CEO salary is just peanut. It should be slashed proportionally with iron ore price if not more to show solidarity with the shareholders.

Ironically when price goes down we blame that to the price for making losses. When company makes price for higher price then credit goes to efficient management, prudent financial management etc . Interesting.

Congratulations again to you and your chosen team for an excellent reward to small and petty shareholders like me

Regards
xxxxx



On Monday, 10 November 2014, 21:59, xxxxxx wrote:


Dear Dave

Many thanks for your time to respond considering you are one of the founders (or the founder of AGO) and a major shareholder.

I would not deliberate  and see the result of AGO's performance in next 6 months to shut my mouth excepting the following comments.

1. I did not make any derogatory or personal comments against Ken. I think while defending the CEO  (of course you should do so being the Chairman) I have not missed your veiled threat. I am however not offended and commend you instead.

2. I have noted Ken is a hard worker and outstanding technician in your words . I would have been happier to hear from company chairman if Ken is also  an astute strategic leader and smart driver. If all CEO positions  are  filled up by technicians and hard workers then there is no value for leaders or smart managers. There is nothing personal here but as an MBA and after delivering  a large project more than $5 Billion saving $435 M over two years, probably I am competent to  make a difference between a hard working technician and a smart leader with strategic direction and outcome. If I may draw an example then will look at Andrew Forest or Sam Walsh. But yes, AGO is only a small  operator so comparison could be unfair here but one should aim high to lift the game. 

3. Complacency does not help any one. The shareholde who joined 10 years ago may be complacence but those who joined few months ago and see their hard earned investment going south (exception of today and yesterday's rise - thanks to you, Ken and the team if it is going to be consistent) all I can do to write to the CEO and Chairman being our trusted leaders.

4. Without any prejudice you need to have an audit on the CAPEX quality and how the investment return is going to be at $70 per ton of iron ore. Risk mitigation etc etc.

Finally it is my personal interest with hundreds of small shareholders that AGO returns to the level we all are waiting and we all share champagane together.

Regards

xxxxx



=========================
dear XXXX

Thank you for your email.  It’s helpful to continuously get feedback from shareholders.

Ken has taken a pay cut and there have been wage freezes across the company for three years and we have also reduced numbers of staff across all areas of the business from the board to all areas in the field.

Yes the fall in the share price is not acceptable.  It has significantly effected a large number of shareholders small and large and this is very disappointing.  Not surprisingly it has damaged the reputation of the company, the board and management.

Amongst all the commodities, iron ore remains in the top 3 performers in the last 10 years and with our infrastructure position we remain highly leveraged to upward movements in price.  Given recent downward movement in share price and commodity price we possibly present the greatest leverage in the market right now.  Unfortunately when the market perceives constant downward movement in the iron ore price it means we have the greatest exposure to this.  This hurts.

The best way through this is to cut costs, communicate a plan and then deliver on it.  There are opportunities for order of magnitude reduction in costs but they will only come through completion of an infrastructure agreement and the timing of this is uncertain.  Until then it’s all about finding cumulative savings that help us to exceed expectations on guidance.

Over the last 5 years there has typically been some resurgence in the iron ore price in the lead up to new year.  While uncertain we don’t see any evidence to preclude it from happening this year.

Ken is a remarkably hard worker who has made tremendous personal sacrifices for shareholders.  He himself is an outstanding technician and leader and takes excellent advice from high quality advisors and makes decisions on that advice to achieve what he believes are the best possible outcomes for shareholders.

Please refrain from making derogatory comments in regard to his character.

Regards

David





Description: C:\Users\david.flanagan\AppData\Roaming\Microsoft\Atlas_Sig\signature.jpg
D*avid Flanagan 
Chairman
E: david.flanagan@atlasiron.com.au *
D: 08 6228 8009
M:
Atlas Iron Limited
Level 18, 300 Murray Street, Perth WA 6000 
PO Box 7071, Cloisters Square PO, WA 6850
T: 08 6228 8000      F: 08 6228 8999
W: www.atlasiron.com.au
 ============================


Dear Ken

I am a very small investor who put hard earned money in AGO shares on super fund.
Ironically this iron share is the only exception to go down the hill at a gallopping rate than other iron ore miners. FMG was exception today but AGO has been always faster rate and I lost more than 70% of my investment. I could have sold but your public statement on the strength of AGO disillusioned me and surely many idiots like me.

You are such an expensive CEO at the cost of shareholders money.
Where is your forecast and you can not just blame on China. What cuts have you done on directors fees or senior executives salary to start with and just not cutting employee strength alone.
Where is any public statement ?
How come you are so exception in giving such a poor performance?
Where is your market intelligence and moral courage ?
I am sure this email will never reach you and another fat cat person will respond on your behalf protecting his or her KPI.
PLEASE for God's sake how you are keeping head high on this and what assurance do you offer to small share holders like me ?
When share price rises by market movement then you and your EMT do not feel shy to take that their own credit and strategies etc etc.

Look forward to hear back from you before I burn all the share certificates.


----------



## So_Cynical (11 April 2015)

Miner said:


> Personally I have lost a big investment on AGO




Commiserations on the loss, its the stock market and you know how this works..i recently had a 100% loser to so understand your disappointment.


----------



## Value Collector (11 April 2015)

Miner said:


> Personally I have lost a big investment on AGO.
> ========
> .




I am sorry that you have had to suffer a loss (which by the looks of it may be permanent), I can tell by the emotion in those letters you have taken it rather rough. 

One important thing to keep in mind though, is that it is largely not the fault of the management, But largely your fault for not understanding the basic economics of the business, and how this affects the investment outcome.

Atlas Iron management have never hidden the fact that they are a high cost producer, and given their small scale operations and infrastructure position, they have limited ability to reduce this cost over time.

I myself have a large investment in FMG (which is taking a beating at the moment), which I believe to have much better economics and far greater options to reduce costs over time, I avoided atlas because I could see it's weaknesses.

However if I prove to be wrong, and FMG did suffer a fate the same as atlas and I suffered a permanent loss, this is 100% my fault, it will be important for me to learn the available lessons, and not get emotional and play the victim game. 

Diversification is important, I hope you weren't 100% Atlas.


----------



## Value Collector (11 April 2015)

Miner said:


> Ironically this iron share is the only exception to go down the hill at a gallopping rate than other iron ore miners.
> 
> How come you are so exception in giving such a poor performance?




The reason Atlas share price and business performance has suffered more than others producing the same commodity is related to production cost.

Companies with high production cost will have highly fluctuating profits/loss and therefore highly fluctuating share price.

let me give you an example with some simplified made up numbers.

lets assume Atlas produces Iron ore for $90 / tonne and Rio produces $20 / tonne (not actual numbers)

If the Iron ore price sits at $100, both make money, but if the price of Iron goes to $120 / tonne. Atlas profit would triple, because their profit on each tonne has gone from $10 to $30., this tripling in profit may see their share price double or triple.

However, Rio profit didn't double, they went from making $80/tonne to $110/tonne, their profits have only increased by about 40%, so they will probably see a share price gain, but nothing like the upside of the high cost producers.

But when it comes to an Iron ore price drop to $80, Atlas profits are completely wiped out, where as rio would still be making $60 / tonne. Atlas might close its doors and share price to $0, rio just reports a lower profit for a while.

When your investing in any commodity, you have to understand the effects of production cost, Sometimes high costs will work in your favour, but its a high risk game.

Phil Fisher explains this concept greatly in his 1975 edition of "Conservative investors sleep well"

Ben Graham explains it in the 1934 edition of "security analysis"

and Warren Buffet explains it in various shareholder letters.

It's a long understood principle of value investing, when we play with the concept and get burned it's our own fault. It doesn't just relate to mining companies, but any company who's products trade like commodities chemical companies, building materials, sugar and flour milling etc.

Unless you set prices because of branding or patents or monopolies, you have to be among the lower cost producers to have a safe position.


----------



## Miner (11 April 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> Commiserations on the loss, its the stock market and you know how this works..i recently had a 100% loser to so understand your disappointment.






Value Collector said:


> I am sorry that you have had to suffer a loss (which by the looks of it may be permanent), I can tell by the emotion in those letters you have taken it rather rough.
> 
> One important thing to keep in mind though, is that it is largely not the fault of the management, But largely your fault for not understanding the basic economics of the business, and how this affects the investment outcome.
> 
> ...






Value Collector said:


> The reason Atlas share price and business performance has suffered more than others producing the same commodity is related to production cost.
> 
> Companies with high production cost will have highly fluctuating profits/loss and therefore highly fluctuating share price.
> 
> ...




Dear So Cynical and Value Collector

Thanks for your compassion and advise.
I am glad to see both of you have made genuine efforts to provide rational response. 
I do agree my email communication could be seen as  emotive . Unfortunately when some one's house is on fire with family jewels then head and emotion go together. Ideally it should not and that's why we all read about Buffett but there is only one Warren Buffet


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## Miner (11 April 2015)

Folks
My last message was incomplete and went too quick with phone button.
Any way thanks to So Cynical and Value Collector for participats.

Yes, I did not put whole of my money into AGO but as any bad investment decision, it was a significant loss to digest.hu
If I see myself as a sadistic one then there are other major shareholders who would have lost millions so I look less silly than those big fishes.


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## piggybank (11 April 2015)

skc said:


> The suspension of ASX trading has NOT been lifted.




Sorry for my oversight there skc but one must pay the price for ones stupidity:-


​


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## sptrawler (11 April 2015)

Miner said:


> Folks
> My last message was incomplete and went too quick with phone button.
> Any way thanks to So Cynical and Value Collector for participats.
> 
> ...




Mate, all you can do is learn from the loss, I hate buying into resources as I have been burnt.
However, I still do, but I say to myself all the time,"watch the price, watch the price, take the profit, take the profit".

Non of the miners are a buy and hold proposition, not even BHP, RIO.IMO

I recently bought STO at $7, they flew upto $8.50, I got greedy.
They went down to $7.20 cum dividend.
Upto $8.30 again, here we go I said.
Down to $6.90 ex dividend.

See we don't learn.


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## luutzu (12 April 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Mate, all you can do is learn from the loss, I hate buying into resources as I have been burnt.
> However, I still do, but I say to myself all the time,"watch the price, watch the price, take the profit, take the profit".
> 
> Non of the miners are a buy and hold proposition, not even BHP, RIO.IMO
> ...





Miner...
Good advice from VS and VC... but as with anything, it's easier to be rational when you're outside and emotional didn't get the better of you.

We all make mistakes, and not knowing anything about Atlas, who knows if it was a mistake or just a bunch of bad luck coming together at you and your holding. But yea...


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## skc (12 April 2015)

Miner said:


> Look forward to hear back from you before I burn all the share certificates.




Miner,

I hope you have calm down a bit and I hope you are able to get over it soon. 

AGO built a business encompassing iron ore price risks. May be a calculated risk (no one predicted this level a mere 12 months ago) but a risk none the less. AGO investors bear that risk by buying the stock, and they enjoy the potential rewards when things go AGO's way. 

Management in all companies enjoy a degree a buffer (and as agency risk to the investor)...The essence of most corporate culture is always about being bold and ambitious. If other things fall hig/her way, the entrepreneur makes it big. No entrepreneur ever becomes successful by being ultra risk adverse. That's why there are big white elephant projects (LEI's cost overruns), M&A at peak of the cycle (e.g. Rio buying Riverdale) etc etc. 

Keep your share certificate (or at least your trading record). You never lose 100% of your investment. It just becomes an tax asset...

All the best.


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## Wysiwyg (12 April 2015)

luutzu said:


> We all make mistakes, and not knowing anything about Atlas, who knows if it was a mistake or just a bunch of bad luck coming together at you and your holding. But yea...



No mistake and no bad luck. Buying and holding downtrending stocks is not a mistake and crying spilled milk after taking the 'larger' loss is a cop out.


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## Triathlete (13 April 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> No mistake and no bad luck. Buying and holding downtrending stocks is not a mistake and crying spilled milk after taking the 'larger' loss is a cop out.




We have all had losses at one time or another, it is how we handle it and manage the situation that is important.

eg.  how has it effected your psycology ?

 is your mind back on the job. Before taking any trade you need to have an idea how far it is likely to move up but also how far can it move against you if things go pear shape.

I never trade if I do not know these two positions ever!!

I have to agree with you Wysiwyg, never hold a downtrending stock unless you aim to short it.

Understand the direction of the stock or market and take a position to suit.

I always  make it  a rule to get out if any stock moves against me by 15% regardless because obviously my analysis is somewhat incorrect so will tale a loss and be ready to fight another day when that opportunity arises which it always does.

In my opinion it is always about timing and being patient.


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## Miner (14 April 2015)

Me again.
I am a  bit overwhelmed with comments on my emotion at the financial loss of AGO. Without  making any further comments excepting lessons learnt and paid a little over $22 K almost one year's school fee for my kid. Should have spent the money in the school .
I noticed MIN got hammered due to AGO and that would be an interesting chapter for MIN with FMG is also deep down. Can not forget the arrogance of Chris Ellison (paid some $17 M for his house in Perth) and smoking in a no smoking area of his own office.  Who knows what story MIN will unfold 
Nonetheless, I am moving on now and thanks to Piggybank, Sprawler, Iuutzu, SKC, Wysiwyg and Trhiathele for your comments - all read and taken on board.


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## pinkboy (14 April 2015)

Looks like they have wiped out MCS in the process as well.

pinkboy


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## ROE (14 April 2015)

Miner said:


> Me again.
> I am a  bit overwhelmed with comments on my emotion at the financial loss of AGO. Without  making any further comments excepting lessons learnt and paid a little over $22 K almost one year's school fee for my kid. Should have spent the money in the school .




You can always send the kids to a good public school and get the money back 
I haven't spend a dim on private school for my kids and they doing well.

Good disciplined kids will do well in any environment


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## Knobby22 (21 April 2015)

There is a song for every person and every company.

This one is good bye my love good bye.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7o7F-mdT4pE

Commiserations Miner on such a large loss. Years ago I held a company that I bought a lot of shares in that went from my buying price of 2.6c to 19c but I failed to take a profit and ended up selling at 1.9c. That loss sharpened my mind and I swore never again. 

If this loss sharpens your mind then it may be worth it. Look at how you made the decision and never make it again. I haven't looked at an iron miner for years because the price was dropping. Someone taught me a few years ago, identify the big trends i.e. look at the forest, not just the trees.


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## pinkboy (1 May 2015)

AGO has announced it is still solvent.  Could be opportunity to at least offload.

pinkboy


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## skc (11 June 2015)

pinkboy said:


> AGO has announced it is still solvent.  Could be opportunity to at least offload.




Well... AGO raising capital. $180m @ 5c. Yes... that's 3.6B news shares (vs current share on issue of 0.92B). Everyone is chipping in. Contractors working on reduced rates, getting paid on a sliding scale relative to the iron ore price. The WA government is reducing the royalty. I am guessing (hoping) that management is taking a pay cut. And now it's shareholder's turn. There's also 1:1 free attached option @ 7.5c which means a lot more dilution if things go well.

AGO was suspended early April @ 12c. The stock will remain suspended until the raising is completed. So it's bit like saying "If you want to see any of your existing shares, give us some money".

Where will they be after the exercise? They reckon the breakeven cost is US$50/DMT. Annualised production is ~14MT. So at current spot price ~US$60, there's plenty of free cash flow even if you take a chunk of profit share for the contractors.

Let's say they make $5/DMT and make $50m NPAT.... they would still have ~$100m debt (rough estimate). Would they trade EV/NPAT of 10x (again, total guesstimate)? If so you get $400m equity value over 4.5B shares, or ~9c per share.

But the flow from this very significant volume of new shares will likely drown out any meaningful valuation for some time.

And they better hope that the iron ore spot price doesn't fall below current level for the next 6 weeks until the raising is completed.


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## Miner (12 June 2015)

skc said:


> Well... AGO raising capital. $180m @ 5c. Yes... that's 3.6B news shares (vs current share on issue of 0.92B). Everyone is chipping in. Contractors working on reduced rates, getting paid on a sliding scale relative to the iron ore price. The WA government is reducing the royalty. I am guessing (hoping) that management is taking a pay cut. And now it's shareholder's turn. There's also 1:1 free attached option @ 7.5c which means a lot more dilution if things go well.
> 
> AGO was suspended early April @ 12c. The stock will remain suspended until the raising is completed. So it's bit like saying "If you want to see any of your existing shares, give us some money".
> 
> ...




SKC et. al
Further to add that now David Flanagan has returned as the MD with a small salary of plus $650K plus 40% bonus on what basis ? It probably gives him the loss catch up from the downfall . In addition the previous MD will be remained as an ED with what take home salary ? Eventually now AGO has said, the previous MD was no good but he will still get paid (not disclosed yet) same salary as MD . So per year there will be $1.3 M will be distributed to these two gentlemen. 5 cents share price on what valuation? They are just printing share certificates and eventually will show the middle finger to the share holders who bought the shares at 70 cents or more.
What is the role of AISC here ? Just by stander ?
If SKC's calculation of $100 M debt any true to reality, AGO worse days are just coming.


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## skc (27 July 2015)

Welcome back AGO... I am sure no existing holder or anyone who participated in the capital raising is particularly thrilled to see the stock @ 3.7c. But at least it gives anyone a chance to sell out and claim some the tax loss

Where to from here is anyone's guess. Iron ore market appears to be a race to the bottom... can AGO paddle fast enough to stay afloat?


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## skyQuake (27 July 2015)

Don't forget those AGOOs, which traded up to 1.3c today! (wow)

Would suspect most the cap raising was covering by the hedge funds that were short... Which paints an even worse picture now for AGO.


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## notting (27 July 2015)

The prospectus began with the caveat -
*Warning* This prospectus is strictly for  philanthropists and the clinically insane.


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## skc (27 July 2015)

notting said:


> The prospectus began with the caveat -
> *Warning* This prospectus is strictly for  philanthropists and the clinically insane.




Lol. 

Having said that, isn't the "average" shareholder better off?

They raised $87.238m @ 5c per share with a free attaching option. At today's close, AGO is worth $95.9m while AGOO is worth ~$10m.

Without the capital raising, AGO is worth $0. Now AGO is worth some $18.6m above the amount raised. Value creation!


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## Blade Runner (22 January 2017)

Just wondering what people thought AGO is at now , after reading that they seem to back on track and paying off a reorganised debt with approx 118 mil left and a mildly optimistic goal of paying it off by June this year. Provided of course Iron prices remain solid can this company get back off its knees?


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## skc (23 January 2017)

Blade Runner said:


> Just wondering what people thought AGO is at now , after reading that they seem to back on track and paying off a reorganised debt with approx 118 mil left and a mildly optimistic goal of paying it off by June this year. Provided of course Iron prices remain solid can this company get back off its knees?




When valuing AGO it's important to remember that two of their mines are scheduled to cease production within the next 12 months. They do have some expansion plans in place but overall you are looking at a reduction in production volume very soon. 

The other key factor is obviously spot iron ore prices. Arguably, most resource companies are currently "undervalued" under the spot price scenario... as most people seem to think the current high spot prices isn't sustainable. So whilst AGO would certainly do better if the spot price stays high, would it really be the best risk-adjusted choice given the uncertainty in future prices? AGO's cost of production (~$40-50/WMT - don't quote me on that) is quite a lot higher than the most efficient producers ($10-12/WMT like FMG), so they have a high leverage to any strength in spot price, but it also wouldn't take much of a fall in spot price to turn them back into cash bleeding mode again.

I don't have the answer... but current momentum appears positive.


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## Karlos68 (13 September 2017)

RSI looking sweet fellas.


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## Miner (13 September 2017)

good one price today. Some hope for recovering my $1 price paid for it.


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## barney (28 December 2017)

AGO breaking 6 month highs after a long consolidation period .... Recent DSO deal with PLS will produce some additional healthy cash flow ..... Looks good to me for the medium term
PS I hold ... but not as much as I'd like to


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## Miner (28 December 2017)

barney said:


> AGO breaking 6 month highs after a long consolidation period .... Recent DSO deal with PLS will produce some additional healthy cash flow ..... Looks good to me for the medium term
> PS I hold ... but not as much as I'd like to



My two cents having lost 98 cents of my investment on AGO!
There is one fatal connection: Find out who was the MD of AGO when the company took some of the serious judgmental errors crippling the company now.
Now look into PLS and who is the current MD.
The talk between PLS and AGO - is a too dangerous connection for me.  
Whereas I am unable to dislodge my paper corn worth investment on AGO, what I did got out of PLS even if it has now doubled since I sold. 
Emotion does not pay, but without emotion, we are duds as stone on a grave.


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## barney (28 December 2017)

Yeah we've all had a few bottom draw-ers over the years Miner ... don't know much about PLS other than AGO will make some nice cash from the DSO arrangement. 

Looks like a solid finish for Atlas today.


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## barney (2 January 2018)

A bloke would nearly have to be happy with the way this is behaving .... hope a few got on board. Looks to still has some legs in it.

Expecting a positive announcement over the next day or two given the price action.


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## leyy (5 April 2018)

Looks like there is high speculation for a takeover offer for AGO from Mineral Resources (MIN).

Both AGO & MIN are on a trading halt as a result of the news speculations, potentially good for AGO holders.


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## Miner (8 April 2018)

leyy said:


> Looks like there is high speculation for a takeover offer for AGO from Mineral Resources (MIN).
> 
> Both AGO & MIN are on a trading halt as a result of the news speculations, potentially good for AGO holders.



Hope AGO could lift at least to 50 cents so that I can recover at least half of my loss by buying it at more than $1 !
However if the market will be too excited to lift MIN quote if the rumour is true.


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## leyy (9 April 2018)

Well official announcement made today with MIN takeover offer for AGO.

It is up 42% on open.

Summary below: Not a great offer IMO, considering it was around 4.0 cents in January 2018.


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## Miner (9 April 2018)

leyy said:


> Well official announcement made today with MIN takeover offer for AGO.
> 
> It is up 42% on open.
> 
> ...



Thats how chris ellison makes his money. Tough negotiation always.


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## Wysiwyg (9 April 2018)

leyy said:


> Not a great offer IMO, considering it was around 4.0 cents in January 2018.



4.0 cents is the cost of the bullet to put AGO out of its misery. What a long, slow death.


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## greggles (7 June 2018)

Fortescue Metals Group acquiring a strategic 15% stake in Atlas Iron. Looks like they're trying to scuttle the Mineral Resources takeover.



> *Fortescue announces acquisition of a stake in Atlas Iron *
> 
> Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG, Fortescue) has agreed to acquire 15.0% of the ordinary shares in  Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO, Atlas Iron) at a price of A$0.04 per share. In addition, Fortescue has an  economic interest through a cash settled swap relating to notional shares equivalent to approximately  4.9% of Atlas Iron's ordinary shares.
> 
> ...


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## greggles (13 June 2018)

It is being reported that Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting has also joined the fray by taking a 19.6% stake in Atlas Iron: https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...t/news-story/5283839d7014d6040222b4b0a4511392

Fortescue Metals have increased their 15% stake to 19.9%.

It is going to be interesting to see how all this plays out.


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## System (28 November 2018)

On November 21st, 2018, Atlas Iron Limited (AGO) was removed from the ASX's Official List in accordance with Listing Rule 17.14, following despatch of the compulsory acquisition notices by Redstone Corporation Pty Ltd.


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