# When is the next correction?



## Flying Fish (16 October 2007)

Any ideas or guess people?


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## >Apocalypto< (16 October 2007)

Flying Fish said:


> Any ideas or guess people?




In about 9 minutes and 36 seconds.

The forum can't help answer that Fish only the charts and patience will show you!


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## Sean K (16 October 2007)

I reakon about now. 

Heading back to 6450 ish.


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## prawn_86 (16 October 2007)

wat is the definition of a correction? is it a certain % move?

IMO the market will trade sideways up until the election as there is uncertainty. It will be good to consolidate at these levels before pushing on again into the new year.


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## The Mint Man (16 October 2007)

yeh, Im not a bear but I would agree with the other guys. I think we may see a small correction before octobers out but I think we will see a good run up to christmas after that

Cheers


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## krisbarry (16 October 2007)

I am still bullish till at least late Jan/Early Feb 08, then I will switch to cash for the next correction


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## CanOz (16 October 2007)

kennas said:


> I reakon about now.
> 
> Heading back to 6450 ish.




Hit the big 6000 Kennas! Well done...you're going up faster than the XJO!

Cheers,


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## justjohn (16 October 2007)

well something had to give we've had 8 straight weeks of positive gains ,i for one dont begrudge giving a little back.USA's reporting season started today with up to 80 leading companies reporting this week so we may be influence a fair bit by the DOW


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## brilliantmichael (16 October 2007)

> When is the next correction?




November the 24th. And a long time coming.


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## nizar (16 October 2007)

Historically november to april are a very good time for equities.
Then, sell in May, and go away


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## vishalt (16 October 2007)

Depends on this burden of an index!


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## nikki (16 October 2007)

look at all the stuff that we are expecting out of the US this week:

- Economic data should provide clues on interest rates and whether the US economy is heading for a recession. 
- Busy week on the earnings front – 86 companies of the S&P 500 are scheduled to release 3Q results. 
- The Fed will release their Beige Book on Wednesday. 
- The Housing data is expected to stink…again. 
- The homebuilders index fell to a 21 year low in September and economists are expected a further decline in October. 
- The CPI should increase 0.3%, mainly on the back of higher energy prices. Core inflation is expected to rise by 0.2%. 
- Thumbs down for building permits – they are expected to fall 3% to 1.28m, meaning building permits would have fallen 43% this year. 

I think last night the DJIA and S&P set the mood for a correction. If anything adds to this we could be in for a solid correction.

Also, in Australia, AGL set the mood yesterday for a possible correction if any other companies report profit downgrades.

I am not alarmist and am generally bullish but there is a little too much happening in the US this week given that the mood will already be bearish with the 20th anniversary of the 1987 crash comming up this weekend.


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## happytrader (16 October 2007)

You can basically expect a correction in nearly every quarter.  In this last quarter that would be anytime before the Santa Claus rally.

Cheers 
Happytrader


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## lusk (16 October 2007)

nikki said:


> I am not alarmist and am generally bullish but there is a little too much happening in the US this week given that the mood will already be bearish with the 20th anniversary of the 1987 crash comming up this weekend.




If the 20th anniversary is coming up of the 1987 crash what happened at the 10th anniversary of the 1987 crash?


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## nikki (16 October 2007)

lusk said:


> If the 20th anniversary is coming up of the 1987 crash what happened at the 10th anniversary of the 1987 crash?




no idea lusk but i am not discounting the impact that all this talk on people in the middle of the current credit squeeze


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## nikki (16 October 2007)

ok here is the 10th anniversary figures for the DJIA:

10 oct 1997 - 8045
20 oct - 7921
24 oct - 7715
27 oct - 7161

hmmmm - doesnt say anything to me about the psych around the anniversary but i am now curious why there was such a big correction between the 10th and 27th in october of 1997.


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## Uncle Festivus (16 October 2007)

No more corrections - only crashes. Probably black Friday


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## professor_frink (16 October 2007)

nikki said:


> ok here is the 10th anniversary figures for the DJIA:
> 
> 10 oct 1997 - 8045
> 20 oct - 7921
> ...




hi nikki,

In 97, we had the Asian financial crisis


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## son of baglimit (16 October 2007)

turbulent, but still sub 7000 til march 08, then a year to be forgotten........

slowly back to sub 6000.................
and just when folks think the market sux, 
get back in.


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## krisbarry (16 October 2007)

Gee it really does sound like we have a lot of bears on this thread...what happened to the positive sentiment?

I am still bullish, anyone care to join me for the Santa Rally (7000)


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## Awesomandy (16 October 2007)

7000 may be possible, but I think that it has recovered/gone up too quickly and too much. Obviously, this cannot be sustained, and I have the gut feeling that it will go down soon.


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## sassa (16 October 2007)

Stop_the_clock said:


> Gee it really does sound like we have a lot of bears on this thread...what happened to the positive sentiment?
> 
> I am still bullish, anyone care to join me for the Santa Rally (7000)




I must say,you and happytrader still have Santy coming.


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## tech/a (16 October 2007)

When Labor gets in.


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## Flying Fish (17 October 2007)

tech/a said:


> When Labor gets in.




Hopefully that wont happen. Anyone hazard a guess where interest rates will be headed in the future regardless of whos in power?


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## tech/a (17 October 2007)

Ive been working on 10% for recient developements.
If labor get in that will go to 12%.


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## wavepicker (17 October 2007)

Flying Fish said:


> Hopefully that wont happen. Anyone hazard a guess where interest rates will be headed in the future regardless of whos in power?





I reckon up.  IMO they will easily be double digits within 5 years.

Australia aside, in the US rates have been in an upward trend for many yrs and the last retrace seems to have completed in 1982. It seems to run in 20 yr cycles. Cycles hit a high in 1982 and a low in 2002. 

The only way is up baby!!(plus some retracements along the way hehe)


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## Aussiejeff (17 October 2007)

Stop_the_clock said:


> Gee it really does sound like we have a lot of bears on this thread...what happened to the positive sentiment?
> 
> I am still bullish, anyone care to join me for the Santa Rally (7000)




Unfortunately, the latest mass melting of the northern ice sheets due to climate change means Santa's sleigh runway no longer meets Civil Aviation operational standards. As a consequence of this tragic event, Santy & Co. have been forced to pack up their business lock, stock and barrel and were last seen paddling a fleet of dilapidated kayaks into the Bermuda Triangle, heading south for the winter... 

AJ


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## KIWIKARLOS (17 October 2007)

Well things are starting to look bad again in the US the sub prime mess still unfolding , dollar droppign and looks like unemployment could start to rise sharply very soon. I don't think they can get out of a recession this time. There nation savings is negative for the first time since the great depression and consumers which are 70% of the whole economy are running out of money, loans and maybe jobs soon.

For OZ the US market isn't that big but for China alot of their wealth is built from US consumers, I think we are going to see a recession in the US with a following slowdown in China where their exports will drop and with little consumption at home their trade imbalances will start to show.

I think India will be largly protected and that Europe will experience a slow down as well.

Question is what will happen in OZ? our commodities mostly go into construction in China which i cant see slowing due to the level of urbanisation going on. I think there will be another worldwide market drop when everyone relises the US is screwed followed by a recovery in emerging markets and strong developed economies.


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## nikki (17 October 2007)

KIWIKARLOS said:


> Well things are starting to look bad again in the US the sub prime mess still unfolding , dollar droppign and looks like unemployment could start to rise sharply very soon. I don't think they can get out of a recession this time. There nation savings is negative for the first time since the great depression and consumers which are 70% of the whole economy are running out of money, loans and maybe jobs soon.
> 
> For OZ the US market isn't that big but for China alot of their wealth is built from US consumers, I think we are going to see a recession in the US with a following slowdown in China where their exports will drop and with little consumption at home their trade imbalances will start to show.
> 
> ...




Hey KiwiKarlos - go have a drink even if you have just woken up. i think you woke up on the wrong side of the bed. from what you say it sounds like most countries are in deep except australia!!!


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## Nyden (17 October 2007)

KIWIKARLOS said:


> Well things are starting to look bad again in the US the sub prime mess still unfolding , dollar droppign and looks like unemployment could start to rise sharply very soon. I don't think they can get out of a recession this time. There nation savings is negative for the first time since the great depression and consumers which are 70% of the whole economy are running out of money, loans and maybe jobs soon.
> 
> For OZ the US market isn't that big but for China alot of their wealth is built from US consumers, I think we are going to see a recession in the US with a following slowdown in China where their exports will drop and with little consumption at home their trade imbalances will start to show.
> 
> ...




Back in your cave, bear! 

Things are starting to *look* bad because market perception has once again changed; it will change back. Soon enough :


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## KIWIKARLOS (17 October 2007)

hahahaa i aint no bear :

everyone knows the US is screwed and is a close to a bear market the rest of the world on the other hand is ok. I am particularily bullish on the OZ, india and China markets all my investments are currently in these markets in energy and iron ore. I wouldn't touch a financial stock in the US or here for that matter with a ten foot pole.

Any of you guys dumping your life savings in Mac Bank or Rams


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## Flying Fish (17 October 2007)

tech/a said:


> Ive been working on 10% for recient developements.
> If labor get in that will go to 12%.




Ok Tech what do you base that on? Surely if things slow down, interests rates will drop, or is there something else at work to maintain higher rates?


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## tech/a (17 October 2007)

Its my own personal levels I have set for developements Iam involved in.

Since 2000 its been 10% (So if the project can handle 10% interest on money then I'll do it)
From the time a Labor government gets in that will be cranked to 12%.
Nothing scientific.

Its part of the *risk analysis *in projects I'm involved with.


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