# Yogi Questions



## tech/a (4 February 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> PNN time cycles... :
> 
> February 2007.
> 
> ...





All well and good to give these "Time points" and easy to suggest that they should be read in conjunction with confirmation from other analysis (Which Ive never seen evidence or examples offered).

I cant see how they can be used in practical trading.

I wonder if its humanly possible for yogi to carry on a discussion and demonstration using PNN as an example (Or any others he wishes to choose) how astro analysis can become a practical trading tool.

Elliot analysis has confirmed that PNN is now in a corrective wave 2 of a higher timeframe after the completion of the minor 5 wave--wave 1.
So until the corrective wave structure shows itself---PNN is not a stock to trade.
Corrective patterns are usually a 3 wave structure but if they extend to a 5 wave structure then the completion of the 5 wave is commonly the first wave of a prolonged 3 wave correction. So its a wait and see.

So for me I'm on the sidelines until price action discloses market sentiment.

Yogi I'm interested in what your position is or would be relative to your analysis either now or in the future?
here is the Chart of PNN which started the discussion in the Trading Systems forum area.
I posted it the CONSTABLE on 28/1/07 as he had an interest in the analysis.
The chart is a whole lot different now of course.


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## tech/a (4 February 2007)

In the absence of Yogi who must be having a busy weekend collecting picnic baskets I'll have a go at deciphering a practical use for the time targets.

February 2007.

06022007 ... positive news expected here.

22022007 ... minor and intraday rally?

23-26022007 ... minor and positive

From 6/2 PNN to start having a good month so get back in or add to positions already held.
---

March 2007.

05032007 ... significant and negative

22032007 ... significant and positive news ... 

23-26022007 ... positive news expected.

27032007 ... minor

From 5/3 bumpy ride with March panning out slightly bullish.
-----

April 2007.

13-16042007 ... 2 minor and positive cycles here

17042007 ... minor

26042007 ... positive spotlight on PNN ... 

30042007 ... positive news expected here

April 13/16 and it seems PNN off again with a solid positive month

-----

May 2007.

11-14052007 ... 2 minor and positive cycles here

23052007 ... minor

25-28052007 ... minor

May 11/14 slowing down of the solid few months of positive time cycles.
Id expect new highs by now even the month before.
-----

June 2007.

01-04062007 ... minor and positive news

11-12062007 ... significant and negati ve ... finances???

27-28062007 ... minor, positive light on PNN

30062007 ... minor and positive news

June 1/4 Last gasp this run by the looks of it dropping off highs quickly at first but pulling up later in the month
-----

July 2007.

02-03072007 ... good news, but flat trading here ???

July 2/3 not much change here rather flat at a higher than the $2.20 level but not at its peak of March/April or early May.


From an Elliot perspective My view is that PNN will correct in 3 or possibly 5 waves.
If 5 then we will see a longer time for correction of price as a complete 5 waves down will make the first leg of a longerterm 3 possibly 5 wave corrective move. Only time will allow price to develope so that the corrective phase becomes clearer.
I wouldnt be trying to trade this corrective phase. I expect price to fall then rise then fall again in a zigzag type pattern.

Time to watch


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 February 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> In the absence of Yogi who must be having a busy weekend collecting picnic baskets I'll have a go at deciphering a practical use for the time targets.
> 
> February 2007.
> 
> ...




Dear Tech,

Much as I respect you I feel yogi is taking the piste out of you. Go for a ski in a cool clime with your well earned dosh and I'm sure you will see his fantasies in a new light.  Garpal


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## Wysiwyg (5 February 2007)

> From an Elliot perspective My view is that PNN will correct in 3 or possibly 5 wavFrom an Elliot perspective My view is that PNN will correct in 3 or possibly 5 waves.
> If 5 then we will see a longer time for correction of price as a complete 5 waves down will make the first leg of a longerterm 3 possibly 5 wave corrective move. Only time will allow price to develope so that the corrective phase becomes clearer.
> I wouldnt be trying to trade this corrective phase. I expect price to fall then rise then fall again in a zigzag type pattern.
> 
> ...




It seems like you have a lot of people believe you.Obviously good credability with a strong following.


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## wavepicker (5 February 2007)

Good call Tech

PNN getting smashed today down 25%!


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## Wysiwyg (5 February 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Good call Tech
> 
> PNN getting smashed today down 25%!




I hope you end up kicking **** around d`head


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## Magdoran (5 February 2007)

Wysiwyg said:
			
		

> I hope you end up kicking **** around d`head



What’s the matter Wysiwyg?

Were you long in this stock?  You can’t blame technical analysts for making forecasts (which in this case came true).  If you’re complaining about market action, with all due respect, you shouldn’t be in it if this is the case.

If you’re having a go at wavepicker, why is this?  He is saluting tech’s excellent Elliott work, fellow EW user one to the other.  This is positive affirmation.  What’s wrong with that?

For that matter I’ll join in the praise:  Excellent work tech.  First class call.  Hope you traded it short!


Regards


Magdoran


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## Wysiwyg (5 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> What’s the matter Wysiwyg?
> 
> Were you long in this stock?  You can’t blame technical analysts for making forecasts (which in this case came true).  If you’re complaining about market action, with all due respect, you shouldn’t be in it if this is the case.
> 
> ...




What is the matter?Well my finances are being monitored/controlled and I am powerless to do anything about that.He was having a dig and I hope someone has a dig at him/her when their trades go down.


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## wavepicker (5 February 2007)

Wysiwyg said:
			
		

> What is the matter?Well my finances are being monitored/controlled and I am powerless to do anything about that.He was having a dig and I hope someone has a dig at him/her when their trades go down.




Man you got real problems. You must be so insecure.

Before you opened your trap, I didn't even know you existed let let alone read your posts.

My comments were directed to Tech and the chart he posted nothing or no one else.


Hope your trades recover, but I think you need some additional help like seeing a shrink.


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## Joe Blow (5 February 2007)

Gents lets not resort to personal attacks please.

Wysiwyg: It is quite clear that Wavepicker was not having a dig at you. I understand that it is never a pleasant experience being on a stock that is going down (we've all been there) but lets not start attacking each other over someone's analysis.

Now lets get this thread back on track please.


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## Magdoran (5 February 2007)

Wysiwyg said:
			
		

> What is the matter?Well my finances are being monitored/controlled and I am powerless to do anything about that.He was having a dig and I hope someone has a dig at him/her when their trades go down.



You are a most odd character Wysiwyg,


I think you have totally misread the situation (perhaps bought on by the pain you are currently feeling with your trade, which I can sympathise with).

wavepicker was saluting an excellent piece of Elliott Wave technical analysis by tech, who for a long time resisted EW theory, and has now in my view become a proficient practitioner.  

wavepicker in my view is probably the most accomplished EW practitioner I know, including ALL the posters on this site, so for him to salute tech is quite a salutation.

The reality is that you are the captain of your own ship, and if you decided to go long this stock, or remain long, despite the detailed work above, then that is your sole responsibility.  If you are a serious trader/investor, you need to accept responsibility for your actions, good or bad, and direct the angst at yourself, not at others engaged in their own market activities.

Let me put this in perspective:  If wavepicker, tech, or I were short a stock you were long in for instance, and the stock shot up bullishly, you’d be ecstatic about your win, and probably not be aware of our losses if we made a bad call and were caught short.  You might comment on it in a thread, and pat yourself on the back.  You may not be aware that other players may have been short the stock you were long in.

Imagine that someone got cross with you for your elation (you have commented on many stocks in threads on this website).

Can you see how your response is unreasonable, and quite hypocritical?

A good sport would hail the winners, and acknowledge their good fortune, and in this case excellent T/A work.

Perhaps you can belatedly apologise and do the right thing and salute a good call.


Regards


Magdoran


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## Snakey (5 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> What’s the matter Wysiwyg?




Drug bust in nimbin
no drugs there now


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## Wysiwyg (5 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> You are a most odd character Wysiwyg,
> 
> 
> I think you have totally misread the situation (perhaps bought on by the pain you are currently feeling with your trade, which I can sympathise with).
> ...




Your comment is very reasonable and from this I can see you would take the same situation when it happens to you (in reference to the comment)differently.I have already acknowledged tech/ays prediction from yesterday.It is unfolding as he said.The following comment got me REALLY HOT under the collar.And that is that.


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## Magdoran (5 February 2007)

Wysiwyg said:
			
		

> Your comment is very reasonable and from this I can see you would take the same situation when it happens to you (in reference to the comment)differently.I have already acknowledged tech/ays prediction from yesterday.It is unfolding as he said.The following comment got me REALLY HOT under the collar.And that is that.



Now, that’s the spirit!  I’m glad you’re seeing this in a better light.

It’s perfectly understandable that you felt bad.  We’ve all been there.

Good of you to acknowledge the call in good grace.


Mag


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## Wysiwyg (5 February 2007)

Snakey said:
			
		

> Drug bust in nimbin
> no drugs there now




Very funny snakey  :cwm10:


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## SevenFX (6 February 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> In the absence of Yogi who must be having a busy weekend




I havent seen any response as yet from Yogi, and wonder if he doesn't acknowledge any bad calls, which I'm sure we've all made and most acknowledge.

I for one would be interested to hear his response from a professional capacity, without any clashes or attacks, whether he got it wrong or not.

SevenFX


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## Kauri (6 February 2007)

......*Silence speaks volumes*....


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## 56gsa (6 February 2007)

don't be too harsh - Yogi still has till end of today for the positive news - remember he didn't say this would increase share price - see PNN thread for why positive news may be decreasing PNN sp.  (perhaps this was the missing fundamental analysis to complement these other two tools?)

Also techs pick of the top was perfect but his graphing of the fall was slightly off - does this get revised tech so there is now a lower bottom for the wave 3...

my bet is they will both be sort-of right....


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## jemma (6 February 2007)

This is what Yogi wrote on BLR- three negative time cycles in a row which never happened. He could not have been further wrong if he tried. In other words, pay no attention to Yogi of he will cost you all profits.


Hi folks,

Quite so, Jemma ..... and here's how it looks,
from this end:

05012007 ..... minor and positive ... finance-related?

15012007 ..... minor and positive news ???

16012007 ..... minor

19-22012007 ..... positive light on BLR

29012007 ..... significant and negative - finances???

02022007 ..... significant negative news expected.

19022007 ..... negative spotlight on BLR

21022007 ..... significant and positive .... finances??? 

16-19032007 ..... 2 significant cycles may bring some
negative news here ... ???

20-21032007 ..... March equinox should see a positive 
spotlight on BLR.

10042007 ..... positive news expected here ???

12042007 ..... seriously negative aspect ... finances?

20042007 ..... difficult cycle here.

27042007 ..... minor and negative news expected

08052007 ..... minor and negative - finances???

11052007 ..... significant and negative news

15052007 ..... rally off lows???

21052007 ..... negative spotlight on BLR

29052007 ..... minor and negative news - test lows?

05062007 ..... significant and positive - finances???

21062007 ..... uneasy market here.

22-25062007 ..... June solstice brings another difficult
aspect, but leaning towards more positive market reaction.

November and December 2007 will likely be the most 
positive months for BLR ..... 

happy days

yogi


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## tech/a (6 February 2007)

Predicting corrective waves is tantamount to astrology. :  (only kidding.)

I really cant say at this time and while there is supply into buyers like there is now---there is really no indication of where it will pull up.

What I can say is that NORMALLY the deeper a correction goes the LONGER a stock will take to recover.
Being the end of a Wave 5 and now a completion of a wave 1 in a larger timeframe again NORMALLY wave 1 corrections are deep. Looks to be the case so far here.

I'm no expert in E/W by the way but have a basic knowledge which I'm keen to increase.Over 12 yrs its been annoyingly accurate (when my analysis contradicts it),hence my renewed interest in this analysis.

I think its power is the ability to know WHERE you are in a trade WHEN you take that trade. I want to know Im trading in an up move not a correction particularly on a longer timeframe. As an example I wouldnt want to get into this (PNN) If it came up as a potential.

Incidently the chart only showed an indicative and possible retracement value as shown in RED Ive snipped it out---below.


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## Magdoran (6 February 2007)

I do find using time points can be very helpful, but in specific circumstances, and then as a guide based on the raw bar chart and volume, and an interpretation of the pattern of trend.

Yogi isn’t displaying the logic behind what he is doing, and this obscures the value in what he is doing.  It really is an art to combine straight technical analysis, wave structure (EW), with time cycle based approaches.

In simple terms, when using charts, what you are doing is using a geographical approach to analyse technical patterns and estimate probabilities of where counter trends will occur, for how long, and how deep.  

Just think about it this way (using a bullish illustration for simplicity – just reverse this for a bearish picture) - you’re essentially looking for a “sweet spot” (like in tennis) where an underlying will pull back in an uptrend if trading long.  

You know that most charts don’t move in a straight line, but zig zag up.  Hence entries should be around a time and price “area” where you expect a continuation, and exits should be on strength as the underlying drives up into an area you expect resistance and a pull back (counter tend) to occur.

What time points are doing is just like using Fibonacci/Gann extensions and retracements of price ranges.  Same kind of thing, but using time as a measure of where support/resistance is likely to occur.  Then just as there can be harmonics in price, you can use time the same way.

Of course the art is to know when to use these, and how.  It is also important to know how to validate these cycles just like in EW it is critical to know when these are validated or not.  

It is important to note thought that it is the pattern of trend that is paramount.  The analysis, just like EW should be a bolt on, and not the primary driver.

Here’s a big hint – most of any of these schools is usually only applicable for a minority (say 30% at a guess) or the time, and then only with certain patterns.  Otherwise just straight charting on its own is often good enough to trade from (so again charting ability is the foundation, and not the other way).  

Where Yogi and I differ is that I don’t think that planetary aspects work very accurately and there is a lot of guess work in using these and applying them in practice.  I essentially see time in a very geometric light much like price, hence I don’t attribute any meaning to a date above a modified form of support and resistance.


Regards,


Magdoran


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## theasxgorilla (6 February 2007)

Magdoran,

Wow...great post.  Your explanation crystallises how EW and/or time cycles and/or astro "bolt-on" (as you describe it) to trend analysis to become art.


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## tech/a (6 February 2007)

Mogi.

Good to see your in put.



> The analysis, just like EW should be a bolt on, and not the primary driver.




This is gods truth. There was and is other analysis which confirms that points in Elliot or whatever are likely to be significant. Im finding that a sound knowledge of Volume analysis is very helpful.



> Here’s a big hint – most of any of these schools is usually only applicable for a minority (say 30% at a guess) or the time, and then only with certain patterns. Otherwise just straight charting on its own is often good enough to trade from (so again charting ability is the foundation, and not the other way).




I really think that those who are well versed can and do achieve far better than 30% on "those" charts which are considered "characteristic".

Radge is achieving 68% in his portfolio traded "behind the wall" in his Chartist members area.


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## theasxgorilla (6 February 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> I really think that those who are well versed can and do achieve far better than 30% on "those" charts which are considered "characteristic"




I thought he meant the analysis technique might only apply 30% of the time ie. where it doesn't apply you can't force it.


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## Magdoran (6 February 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I thought he meant the analysis technique might only apply 30% of the time ie. where it doesn't apply you can't force it.



Absolutely right.  You should consider only applying (unless someone works out a better methodology) some forms of analysis in specific cases based on an interpretation of the pattern of trend.  I suspect it’s around 30% for EW and for the cycle system I use.  Sometimes I’ll just trade EW, sometimes just cycle, but the best trades combine the two.

When the “ducks” (hello tech!) line up (EW practitioners would call this “confluence”) you can get what I would call high probability trades.

Otherwise fully agree with you tech, spot on.  And it is realising the pitfalls of an approach, as much as the strengths which is important.

So you’re absolutely correct theasxgorilla, you should try to avoid imposing/forcing a view, and pick the right tool(s) when appropriate.  Of course this is the challenge.  Knowing what to use and when.  This is hardly a static activity either, it is in my experience an ongoing challenge to adapt and expand and refine ideas…

My directional percentage in terms of being correct is probably around 75% - but including movement within a narrow time frame, but when trading derivatives, you need to get 3 things right to maximise profits in the “sweet spot” – time, magnitude, as well as direction.  Being right in direction is often not sufficient when swing trading derivatives.

Hence if you want to achieve 300-500% returns (or more) ranging from a few days to say 3 months, you need to be able to assess both risk and reward in a context of probability and standard deviation (wavepicker calls these “sigmas”).

In essence it’s like using a top spin forehand in tennis.  You want to get your stroke right brushing up the ball with the right amount of body rotation.

In trading terms for instance I recently traded a stock long, did a diagonal ratio back spread on the day of the high(time cycle forecast) near the high, wound out the hedge 4 counter trend days later, and added to the long (it rallied the next day in continuation), then exited partially one third cover the cost of the original long on a bullish exhaustion for that drive, waited again for the pull back (all using time cycles and wave structure), added some further OTM strikes… etc looking to exit partially at the next projected high… based on time.

Hope that makes sense.  But I can only do this when there are the right patterns.  Otherwise I may just use price as a target if there is a harmonic in the division of the price range.


Regards


Magdoran


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## Agentm (6 February 2007)

i thought yogi was just a joke, i never took him serious, i guess if he does take the work he does seriously, then so be it, but when i saw it appear on the adi thread i thought he was an astrologer or someone doing a horoscope type thing. i didnt think anything of it, do people take it seriously? i thought it was just a fun thing to laugh at.. 


sorry to yogi if he is around, no offence, but i get all my results from research, i rarely get any new info from the forums, mainly from straight hard research and  more research.. 

maybe yogi isnt replying as he may be wondering why you're taking him seriously.. just a thought!!


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## Magdoran (6 February 2007)

Agentm said:
			
		

> i thought yogi was just a joke, i never took him serious, i guess if he does take the work he does seriously, then so be it, but when i saw it appear on the adi thread i thought he was an astrologer or someone doing a horoscope type thing,, i didnt think anything of it, do poeple take it seroiusly? i thought it was just a fun thing to laugh at..
> 
> 
> sorry to yogi if he is around, no offence, but i get all my results from research, i rarely get any new info from the forums, mainly from straight hard research and  more research..
> ...



I do think that there is a very serious component to what he does. It may seem like a joke at first, and there are a lot of rabbits with bizarre ideas out there that are crack pots. 

I don’t subscribe to the astrology school myself, but some of their cycles if you examine them can be freaky in their accuracy – particularly the (almost 10 year) Saturn cycle.  If you know what you are doing in commodities, this can be quite powerful…

But this requires a solid foundation of understanding of how markets trend.  Specifically trends and counter trends, and good technical analysis techniques as the base.  Otherwise a lot of this stuff is a complete waste of time.  I have known many who have fiddled with time based approaches without understanding how to use them properly, and frankly they would have done better just trading with bar chart and volume.

Yogi is very well versed in his speciality, and does sometimes get great results, but I suspect that even he misses much of his own analysis.  For instance he posted on the day of the May high last year, and got the price right for the top but the time wrong.  This stuff is hard, and I’m sure he is still learning too.  But some of his work is quite gifted.  You just have to know enough to see it.  I bet if he filled a few knowledge gaps he could be quite formidable.

The problem is that you can’t fathom what he’s doing because he (quite rightly) protects his IP and doesn’t publish all the critical elements in his thinking.  Hence unless you understand the planetary concepts behind his posts, the information is meaningless.  Even I only half get what he’s doing, and there are bits I just don’t get at all…

Anyway, that’s my imperfect perspective… Ha! 


Mag


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## tech/a (6 February 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I thought he meant the analysis technique might only apply 30% of the time ie. where it doesn't apply you can't force it.




Yes I see --- and agree.



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> Hope that makes sense.




Yes of course---clearly a backhand smash while rotating in the opposite direction and angling at 83 degrees to the net with heaps of slice to cause the ball to pull up.All while sipping a gatoraid.



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> The problem is that you can’t fathom what he’s doing because he (quite rightly) protects his IP and doesn’t publish all the critical elements in his thinking. Hence unless you understand the planetary concepts behind his posts, the information is meaningless. Even I only half get what he’s doing, and there are bits I just don’t get at all…




Mogi.

Yogi often posts references to his site---he's put in a great deal of work.
But surely anyone who has any idea of marketing will realise that a full example/s of your work will be far more powerful than meaningless snippets to potential clients--or advocates.

Well thought out examples wont teach anyone how to use the analysis profitiently but can go a long way toward arousing curiosity to the point of---wow I really need to investigate this in more depth.

I'm sure he has confirming analysis tools either within the analysis of Gann/astrology or as an adjunct to it.
A clear and consise "Walk through" of a trade win or lose can be very powerful. There are things to be learnt when things turn for the worse on your analysis.


As an example.
I posted it behind Radges private wall of learning.(Chartist Members area)

Today one of my confirming indicators took me out of a trade I felt was a possible good long trade which took off yesterday with a great burst of volume and range.It looked like a good wave 5 entry possibility.

Today Seller supply overwhelmed buyers and it tanked. I didnt make a profit but I was able to get out at my buy.It lost a further 5 ticks---and would have been a few $$s had I not had the analysis capability of understanding what was happening.


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## 56gsa (7 February 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> February 2007.
> 
> 06022007 ... positive news expected here.
> 
> ...




07022007  positive news - PNN extends MOU with Sino!!


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## theasxgorilla (7 February 2007)

On this topic, in contemplation of "bolting on" Elliott Wave, or time cycles, or astro, to essential trend analysis fundamentals...how do the aforementioned fit together with automated trend analysis/following systems?

For example, Tech/a, I understand that you have a largely automated system called TechTrader.  Does this work in conjunction with your Elliott Wave stuff, or is it a separate system?


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## tech/a (7 February 2007)

Totally seperate G.

*Gotta hand it to yogi amazing predicting an announcement.*

Its what the market does with it which will be the governing factor.
Still a corrective Elliot pattern consists of 3 waves (normally and typically) so this is playing out as expected.

Infact if you look at yogi's predictions and imagine a 3 wave 2 down 1 up scenario its pretty similar.

My question to yogi still stands how do you trade these types of predictions.
IE would you now be long after waiting for confirmation of the announcement? or would you have bought earlier in anticipation if so WHEN?

All well and good to have all these readings but how do you (yogi) trade them in a profitable manner?


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## yogi-in-oz (7 February 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Today Seller supply overwhelmed buyers and it tanked. I didnt make a profit but I was able to get out at my buy.It lost a further 5 ticks---and would have been a few $$s had I not had the analysis capability of understanding what was happening.






Hi folks,

Sometimes, it is just better to maintain the faith and wait 
for those God-given time cycles to evolve naturally,
as they do (despite man's analysis and expectations) ... 

So, the self annointed guru admitted to taking a loss
in PNN, yesterday !~!

So, what does EW analysis say today guys??

Buy back into PNN today on a gap-up, after taking a loss 
at a lower price, yesterday ...???

That would be a VERY hard decision, for some traders !~!

-----

PNN  8:30 am	Uranium Exploration Update .....

.... and for those who missed it, this was posted by PNN, 
BEFORE the market opened today:

7 February, 2007
Uranium Project Update
Sinosteel Corporation (Sinosteel) and PepinNini Minerals Limited (PepinNini) have signed in
Beijing a legally binding Investment CoOperation Agreement (Agreement) in accordance with the
non-binding Memorandum of Understanding executed last September. The Agreement reinforces
both parties intention to establish a strategic alliance for the joint participation and co-operation in
the possible development and operation of the Crocker Well and Mt Victoria Uranium Deposits
and other commodities in the Curnamona Province of South Australia. It also facilitates an
application to the Chinese Government for approval of the alliance.
Under the Agreement Sinosteel Corporation will pay a non refundable A$1million for an
exclusivity period of 60 days expiring on 7th April, 2007 to obtain approvals from the Chinese and
Australian Governments and for both parties to finalise an unincorporated joint venture to
manage the project. If required Sinosteel can extend the exclusivity period for two additional
periods of 30 days each by payment of an additional A$500,000 for each additional period. If
Government approvals are not received or joint venture documentation not finalised by the end of
120 days the non-refundable payments will be converted into PepinNini shares to be issued to
Sinosteel at A$2.00 per share and the Agreement will be terminated. Previously paid exclusivity
payments will be converted to PepinNini shares in accordance with the MOU announced 13th
September 2006.
The terms of the acquisition remain the same as previously negotiated under the Memorandum of
Understanding signed Sept 2006. Subject to obtaining Government approvals and the finalisation
of an unincorporated exploration joint venture, Sinosteel will pay PepinNini A$28.5 million for a
60% stake in the Curnamona Province project and tenements. In addition Sinosteel will
contribute A$5 million expenditure towards drilling and preparation of a Bankable Feasibility
Study on the Uranium resource and A$6 million expenditure on exploration for commodities other
than uranium over a two year period within the project tenements. To allow exploration and the
commencement of a Bankable Feasibilty Study to proceed without delay any expenditure
incurred by PepinNini on the Project during the period of exclusivity will be reimbursed from the
A$5 million expenditure commitment for Uranium.

-----

..... some traders may consider the announcement above
to be positive ... lol ... 

happy days

  yogi


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## rub92me (7 February 2007)

Okay, I'll point it out again, as I've done before when yogi claims (occasional) success that isn't there (see AZZ thread). 
Yogi's prediction was *06022007* ... positive news expected here.
The news came on *07022006*. 
So the prediction was wrong.


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## yogi-in-oz (7 February 2007)

Hi folks,

For those who have tipped the bucket on us in this thread
..... how are you feeling now???

To turn this thread into something constructive, instead 
of the usual pointless head-butting, here's some further 
insight into the PNN astrocycles, already posted. 

Reasons for silence on this end throughout this thread, is
simply ABSOLUTE faith in those God-given time cycles ...
... natural time cycles, which NO MAN can change.

If we TRUST those time cycles, that affect us all, there's
NOTHING we can do, except wait and see how it all pans
out ... the cycles WILL ALWAYS unfold naturally, but it is
man's analysis and interpretation of those cycles, that can 
be right or wrong ... but, if we use them in conjunction
with other TA, then our analysis becomes more accurate.

-----

For example, with regard to PNN analysis, in particular:

PNN price action has been negative, since the end of 
January, as we approached our target date for an expected
positive cycle on 06022007 ... in the past 2 days, the
volume increased significantly, as the market panicked ...

         PNN,20070205,1.76,1.8,1.44,1.59,701124

         PNN,20070206,1.58,1.58,1.38,1.4,1111631

..... such extreme, negative price action and volume are 
further confirmation to contrarians, that the market has 
got it wrong, yet again.

This was backed up, by support found, around the small
gap-up, at the beginning of the year (1.36):

         PNN,20070206,1.58,1.58,1.38,1.4,1111631

Lessons here being ... watch for extreme negative price
and volume, going into an expected positive cycle, as 
they will often signal, that the market is due for a leasant
surprise, quite soon.

Likewise, extreme positive price action with high volume,
approaching an expected negative cycle, may well be a
reflection of the "madness of the crowds", as they buy in
fear of missing out on profits, with total disregard for any
proper analysis.

This stuff is quite SIMPLE and ANYBODY,  with half a brain
can surely work out an entry and exit strategy, to suit their
own trading plan circumstances ... for example:

Agressive contrarians would have been buying ON our target
date, possibly around the close, after watching yesterday's
price action and the increased volume, close to critical
support, established at the beginning of 2007 ... THAT's
how you trade the time cycles .... use SIMPLE indicators and 
for the most part, take a contrarian approach, particularly if
price action and volume is extreme, at strong support or
resistance levels.

No, being an aggressive trader does NOT always work,
which is why the issue of TIME STOPS was discussed,
in my FREE ebook, "Trading Plan ... wozzat??", at:

www.authorsden.com/SampleWorksPDF/10134.pdf

So, anybody buying PNN on 05-06022007 would probably
have benefited from today's gap-up at the open and the
subsequent price action that has ensued:

Code  Last +/-      %       Bid  	Ask   Open High  Low   Trades  Volume  	
 PNN 172 +32 +22.9% 172 	173   156    172   155.5  143 	   472,191 

.... up  22% on yesterday's close ... not bad for a calculated astropunt ... !~!

..... 

Yes, often we do get them wrong ..... but, that has ZILCH to do with 
the planetary time cycles themselves, as they will ALWAYS unfold in a
natural progression ... instead, it is our analysis and interpretation that
is wrong and astrotraders are constantly improving and developing 
better tools, in an effort to improve their forecasting accuracy.

Fact is, we are really only just scratching the surface in understanding
how we can use the cosmic clock and fortunately for researchers and
astrotraders, the market is an ideal place to get a graphical overview
of sentiment changes (price), combined with analysis of the constant
TIME axis ..... 

-----

So with PNN,  justice has been done and astrostuff wins, again !~!

Meanwhile, EWavers have shown the shortcomings of their own craft,
as NONE of them have produced any evidence, that the waves forecast
a rally, around this time ..... in fact, they have bailed out of a stock, that
has since gapped-up ... just 1 day, after they bailed out !~!

..... better get back to counting those waves guys or maybe, it would
be more beneficial to learn some simple time cycle analysis,
to complement your wave counts.

happy days

  yogi

P.S. ..... that Golden ratio Phi and its reciprocal (1.618 and .618), often
used  by EWavers, have been circling around above our heads, since
God created our universe and can be seen in the annual movements
of the  Moon, Venus, Sun and our Earth, too. 



=====


----------



## Magdoran (7 February 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> For those who have tipped the bucket on us in this thread
> ..... how are you feeling now???
> ...



Yogi,

Great call on the time point, well done.

However, I don’t think you understand the EW logic here at all, and are doing the analysis (which in my view was excellent) a great injustice.  

The call was for a short, and the exit point would have yielded a solid profit.  The entry and exit were excellent from a trading point of view – what more do you want?

Tech got the levels right, and showed an “ABC” pattern, which is exactly what happened.  If you understood EW rules you’d know that an ABC is corrective, and signals the potential for a continuation of the main trend.

So a good trader may have traded the ABC portion short (or hedged conceptually), then re-entered around the low long.

So no, the EW player wouldn’t have “bailed out”, but exited a successful short capturing the lion’s share of the counter trend.  There would also have been an opportunity to go long at this point using this analysis.

So no, the example bolstered the effectiveness of EW, and did not highlight shortcomings.

Your call for news was acceptably close enough from my point of view (forecasting +/- 1 trading day is excellent in my view).  So you made a great call too.

Imagine using the two concepts in tandem?  Imagine if they complemented the other?  I have found this, and using both concepts in harmony I think is very potent.  You know I use time points too.

I do not understand why you see the need to attack EW (unfairly I think in this case).  In fact, I think that this is potentially one of the areas of knowledge that may fill some of the knowledge gap I alluded to earlier.

If you really understood EW, I think you’d find it very compatible with time based T/A.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Magdoran (7 February 2007)

Ok, looks like there’s a bit of a philosophical polemic here, so if you’re not into this read no more…







			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Reasons for silence on this end throughout this thread, is
> simply ABSOLUTE faith in those God-given time cycles ...
> ... natural time cycles, which NO MAN can change.
> 
> ...



This is where you and I differ Yogi.  This smacks of determinism, and is based on a concept of predetermination.

I don’t accept this to be necessarily true, and in my heart of hearts I strongly suspect that the chaos model of the universe is much closer to the mark than bible thumping fundamentalism (the truth is probably that none of us can really be certain).

While I share you acceptance that there are cycles in nature, and hence cycles which can aid in trading, to ascribe these to an amorphous entity and assume that these cycles are immutable, and by corollary impose a rigid view of the way human events unfold in a deterministic manner I think begs the question.

I see history more as a reciprocal relationship between actors and structures, both actors with actors, structures with structures, and actors with structures.  I think events can be very fluid sometimes, especially when events hang in the balance, and a myriad of variables come into play.  It is like the alternative quantum realities in science fiction shows – many outcomes are possible, and it is like Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle - prediction is limited by this principle.

I don’t think the future is already written.  I don’t believe in a deterministic world, but believe in a future when many outcomes are possible.  I believe that we have a capacity to contribute to the way events unfold.  I recognise I may be wrong here, and respect others may believe the opposite.  This is a personal choice (much like religion), but assuming one way or the other I think subtly changes the way individuals approach life.  This includes subtle effects on a trader’s mindset.  

If you think it’s all predetermined in the fickle marketplace, I think this is an error.  You can throw out Douglas’ concept of “anything can happen”, and “every moment in the market is unique”.  Me, I choose the path where these axioms are at the core of the way I see the market.  I reject the model of a deterministic future with rigidly set outcomes.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## wavepicker (7 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Yogi,
> 
> Great call on the time point, well done.
> 
> ...





Well said Mag, 

I have had disputes with Yogi regarding this very thing on previous threads. 

I understand you use a hybrid approach of Gann/EW to compliment your pattern of the trend analysis. I think what Yogi has to understand is that Gann is NOT the be all and end all of TA. But rather a potent part of trading arsenal that can be used in conjunction with other tools. I have not found a complete tool that caters for all market situations, you need to have the right tools for the right job in a given instance, not necessarily to just help you win, but not to lose money as well as keep you on the right side of the market

No matter how good you think you are, learning never ever stops in this business, and there a milion ways of making mistakes. I too have seen shortcomings in EW over the years and have worked hard to bridge that gap with my own form of Cyclic Analysis using Fourier Transorms. Not to mention analysing the pattern of the trend as you do.

You have to stay open minded about about other techniques/methodologies that are out there that can help you do your job. Then there is the emotional aspect which is probably the most important of all but discarded by most traders.


Cheers


----------



## tech/a (7 February 2007)

> So, the self annointed guru admitted to taking a loss
> in PNN, yesterday !~!
> 
> So, what does EW analysis say today guys??
> ...




*Yogi,cant you spell? * Youve quoted that from the PEN  P-E-N thread  

 Not trading PNN--P-N-N

This is not a correction pattern I would trade---. In the longer term its a wave 2 of 5 waves. This ABC pattern may not be finished with yet on a larger time frame. Quite possibly we may have seen the low for the corrective move. Nothing certain just yet.

Picking Announcements---now thats pretty damned good have to admit.

Will keep watching thanks for your reply---I know your a busy bear.


----------



## theasxgorilla (7 February 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Totally seperate G.




Why bother with all this manual, interpretive stuff if you have an automated system that conveniently (and I presume time-efficiently) notifies you when to buy?  Genuine question...all my analysis is manual and to be frank, I'd love to have an automated system.


----------



## tech/a (7 February 2007)

Techtrader is a long term (Long) trend following methodology.
It is pretty well set and forget. Like all (long) longterm methods it suffers drawdowns in not so ideal markets. As its test period on inception was 1994---2002 it is very possible that we have not seen maximum possible extremeties to drawdown. While the systems blueprint offers protection to the maximum drawdown known through testing oneday the method could well trigger a FULL STOP---IE now trading beyond known test result parameters.


Sure if and when this happens it can be re set and re tested and a new blueprint formulated,but as I trade I'm interested in a more precise methodology which I can trade with surplus funds and take advantage of opportunity when it is seen over shorter timeframes.Wether the central method is being traded or not.

2 vastly different trading methodologies.


----------



## theasxgorilla (7 February 2007)

Can't we (you, me, anybody) create a short-medium term automatic system that can trade both long and short?

I ask because I find Elliott Wave/Time Cycles Analysis to be quite time  consuming...surely an automatic system that is short term enuff to avoid the drawdown issue that you described, that can trade both long and short is superior to spending lots of time counting and re-counting waves or cycles or star-gazing.


----------



## Magdoran (7 February 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Can't we (you, me, anybody) create a short-medium term automatic system that can trade both long and short?
> 
> I ask because I find Elliott Wave/Time Cycles Analysis to be quite time  consuming...surely an automatic system that is short term enuff to avoid the drawdown issue that you described, that can trade both long and short is superior to spending lots of time counting and re-counting waves or cycles or star-gazing.



People should use what they are comfortable with which delivers a consistent profit over time.  It’s no good using something that you prefer if it doesn’t generate profits in the long run.  It’s also difficult to use a system that you don’t like, but acceptable if it generates consistent profits, but it’s better to do this than make losses with something you do like.  Wouldn’t you agree?

So, this is the trade off in terms of time and effort and longer term results and knowledge.  Mechanical systems can be built or acquired, and probably take a fraction of the time (“techtrader” and systems of its ilk excepted – these are major projects) to develop as opposed to becoming proficient in technical analysis, EW, Time cycles, and other T/A schools.  Even in these schools there are significant divisions and styles…

The market is highly competitive, and the majority either lose or are marginally successful.  It is a minority that make the significant consistent profits (at least this is the orthodox view, but hard to really verify).

I believe that most mechanical systems are designed for people that either can’t or won’t develop T/A skills (or in tech’s case he uses both in appropriate circumstances) , and/or are unable to deal with the psychology, and need a rigid set of rules to deliver a positive expectancy and take the emotion out.

To survive in the market you need an edge.  You need something that delivers a consistent positive expectancy over the long term.  The problem is that if you accept that human intuition if harnessed correctly should outperform computer based systems (the “computer between your ears” I would argue used correctly should outperform mechanical systems), then you can see why a significant proportion of mechanical traders fail.  

I think many use mechanical systems because the time and effort to become proficient in an effective T/A style is prohibitive.  In some cases some people are more suited to mechanical systems, and can make consistent profits.  For some Intuitive/discretionary approaches are not suitable.

What I would argue though is that computers can’t “see the market”.  A human who dedicates themselves to studying it can develop an edge through experience and observation, trialling different areas of knowledge, and forging a style that both suits them, and is consistently profitable.

I would argue that to really outperform the market in the long run you must develop an edge, and being able to “see the market” and be “in tune” with the market is vital.  A lot depends on your objective, time frame, position size, and return targets – how aggressive you will position for example.

So no, in my judgement, having a solid T/A basis should outperform most mechanical approaches.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## yogi-in-oz (7 February 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Yogi,cant you spell? * Youve quoted that from the PEN  P-E-N thread
> 
> Not trading PNN--P-N-N
> 
> ...






Huh ... ???

Whoa, whoa ..... there was no mention of PEN in this 
thread and the quote used was your very own words
..... from THIS thread !~!

You exited PNN. at a loss ... yes???

Anyway, no point get into discussions about red herrings.

Fact remains, your EW analysis for PNN did NOT indicate
a positive move, around this time, period .....  !~!

Further to that, it just happens to be so, that the 
astroanalysis for PEN and PNN, are the SAME ... 

happy days

  yogi


----------



## tech/a (7 February 2007)

Yogi I have not traded PNN since I exited at the last high. At this point dont intend to.

All Ive done is posted some Elliot Analysis on PNN and its been a competition ever since.

Like your analysis its simply another form of analysis which I present worts and all, just as you do.

You'll get it right/Ill get it right/youll get it wrong /I'll get it wrong.

So??

Ah Found what your talking about.



> As an example.
> I posted it behind Radges private wall of learning.(Chartist Members area)
> 
> Today one of my confirming indicators took me out of a trade I felt was a possible good long trade which took off yesterday with a great burst of volume and range.It looked like a good wave 5 entry possibility.
> ...




You presumed it was PNN----and it didnt take off the day before did it.


----------



## wavepicker (7 February 2007)

I am sure there are certain facets of Yogis analysis that at times have merit as he has demontrated. At other times not so much merit.

Yogi has said previously in this and other threads that his Gann Astro methods and Gann methods in general are far superior compared to other methods such as EW. 
From my point of view it is madness to make such comments.
I know of Gann traders that make large consistant profits annually. I also know  of EW practioners and of others who practice other TA that do likewise. I also have known of others who have gone bust using each of these methods.

Yogi. if you have looked at EW and "DONT GET IT" then thats fair enough, stick to you Gann. I have personally looked at Gann, don't get it or ever will and simply disagree with many facts of it because it conflicts with the way I see the market.

Just coming up with some "potential dates" where something might happen is not a sound trading routine if used in isolation IMO. 

On the other hand something like what Mag does whereby the pattern of the trend and trading from a bar chart and volume underpins other forms of analysis such as Gann, EW or even any other indicators. 

Bottom line "TRADE WHAT YOU SEE- NOT WHAT YOU EXPECT OR WANT TO HAPPEN BECAUSE THE STARS SAY SO"


----------



## Magdoran (7 February 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Huh ... ???
> 
> Whoa, whoa ..... there was no mention of PEN in this
> thread and the quote used was your very own words
> ...



Geez Yogi,


Tech picked the ABC short pretty well I would say…  The potential long position is a corollary of this analysis if you were so inclined.  It is fundamental to EW theory that an ABC indicates the end of a corrective move and a resumption in the trend, doesn’t it?  At least this is my reading of Prechter.

But going long at this point is in my view more risky than taking the short… but if I was game I would do it with this kind of pattern.  If this stock was optionable I would have played it exactly that way.  I would have bailed if long much earlier nearer the top if I’d been trading the swings, and probably have reversed my position, or at least hedged it (if it was optionable) – probably ratio-diagonal-back spread, or even short calls deeper in the money if really bearish, maybe 1:1).

I still maintain Yogi that you would benefit from studying EW.  It can do things some of both your style and mine in Gann cannot do…  McLaren for instance embraces EW, and specifically Prechter.  He even quotes him, and often dedicates a section to wave structure…  If he thinks it’s relevant and useful, so do I.

Have you read Prechter’s work on Elliott?


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. Why this angst with Elliott Wave theory???  Gann and Elliott were contemporaries, and I believe Gann may have actually drawn from Elliott.  I think they are compatible disciplines, not rivals.  I just don’t get where you’re coming from?


----------



## tech/a (7 February 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Can't we (you, me, anybody) create a short-medium term automatic system that can trade both long and short?
> 
> I ask because I find Elliott Wave/Time Cycles Analysis to be quite time  consuming...surely an automatic system that is short term enuff to avoid the drawdown issue that you described, that can trade both long and short is superior to spending lots of time counting and re-counting waves or cycles or star-gazing.




G.

Yes quite so. However I cant find software that will test or help me design some signals I wish to take.EG try making up a formula for a trendline break or a triangle or any Elliot retracement values. Or an exit for a projected price point which as you know could be dynamic dependant on price action.So im urrently limited by either my capabilities and or software capabilities. My son's the Physist not me!!

If I have a chart (Normally smalls which are subject to outlier moves) I'm interested in Ill put a count on it. There it stays only to be altered if I find its in correct or price action dictates a change.Then if it comes up on an alert there it is for further analysis.


----------



## yogi-in-oz (7 February 2007)

Hi folks,

Mag ... in fact, i AM familiar with EW principles,
after all they are not exactly rocket science .....

..... and there's no question, that there was a short 
in PNN from the end of January, that was discussed,
but how many EWavers predicted a change of trend,
around 06022007 ..... exactly, NONE !~!

So, where is your wave count now ... ???

ABC in a the 2nd retracement of an impulse wave, blah, blah

..... it just seems a whole lot easier to just specify A DATE, 
where one cycle will end and a new one begins ... yes???

Whatever spins your wheels ... we're not here to argue, 
anymore ... we'll just leave that for the EW "experts"
to argue amongst themselves.

have a great day

   yogi


----------



## theasxgorilla (7 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> McLaren for instance embraces EW, and specifically Prechter.  He even quotes him, and often dedicates a section to wave structure…  If he thinks it’s relevant and useful, so do I.




Who is McLaren?


----------



## wavepicker (7 February 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> Mag ... in fact, i AM familiar with EW principles,
> after all they are not exactly rocket science .....
> ...




One hit today, great Yogi.  How many hits have you had with all these dates and stocks you post here. Very very few, I have been keeping tabs. BTW did you trade your prediction today???????


----------



## Magdoran (7 February 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> Mag ... in fact, i AM familiar with EW principles,
> after all they are not exactly rocket science .....
> ...



Hello Yogi,


No, agreed, EW isn’t rocket science, but neither is a lot of Gann either at its core.  What is hard is learning the intricacies, and being able to effectively forecast and trade the forecasts profitably consistently…

The point I’d like to make is that someone like wavepicker has mastered EW to a high level, and can make some quite accurate estimations in certain conditions, without time points.  This I believe to be true of your discipline too.  I also use time to trade like you, hence I know all too well how beneficial this can be when used correctly – which is an art in itself.  So, I fully appreciate the advantages of using time points.

What I don’t think you understand is the finer points of EW.  I think you have glossed over this body of knowledge and discounted it prematurely.  To be so dismissive of it, and people like Prechter seems like a gross miscalculation and underestimation to me.

Now the thing that I note with your dates is that many don’t come to fruition which is normal.  Also, the way you convey your predictions is quite ambiguous.  In the most recent case, you did not specify to go long, or enter short, just gave dates with a small commentary.

The challenge for you though is to give exact time and price points real time or before, or at worst immediately after entering a position, and then declaring the exit in advance or at the moment of exit (or immediately after).  If you make a forecast for instance, combine prices with the dates, and instructions on where to enter and where to exit.

I’d like to see you put the price and time points on a chart (the bars in between are not required – just the entry time and price, and the exit time and price).  Even better, pick each individual price movement of trend and counter trend with the high or low to the day in line with an exact price, nominating entry and hedge all the way up, and all the way down.

If you can do that I’d be impressed.  Otherwise it is unclear how to use your time points, especially when nothing happens for some of them.  I am not asking for you to reveal your methods, just provide a running commentary on a hypothetical trade as I did on the “Improving chart Analysis” thread.

What I suspect is that you can locate significant time points, but that you need the way the underlying trades into them to make judgements.  I don’t believe in this case you would have traded PNN long just on time points alone.  I suspect that your successful trades use T/A patterns at the core, don’t they? 


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. I think you are missing half the game...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 February 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Who is McLaren?




Dear Gorilla, 

Bill McLaren is a trader/educator originally from USA who now lives I think on the Gold Coast. He is passionate about Gann. I heard him speak at an ATAA meeting about 10 years ago. It wasn't a bad presentation. 
Here is a link 

http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/

He seems to have aged better than me, in fact from his photo he appears to have had a significant retracement. 

Garpal


----------



## Nick Radge (7 February 2007)

> He seems to have aged better than me, in fact from his photo he appears to have had a significant retracement.




Good one Garpal.  Question is, "is that a 38.2% or 61.8% retracement?"


----------



## wavepicker (7 February 2007)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Good one Garpal.  Question is, "is that a 38.2% or 61.8% retracement?"




Actually he has aged quite well considering he is in his mid 60's. Others half his age have a 75% retracement hehe


----------



## wayneL (7 February 2007)

I would have thought there was more interest in the Fib extension. Is 2.618 unreasonable? I guess not for the young'uns. I'll be happy with 1.27


----------



## tech/a (7 February 2007)

Yogi.

Taking the predicted announcement buy you would now be long.

Where would the exit be? Next major bad news I suppose---you'd ignore minor?


----------



## Magdoran (7 February 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Yogi.
> 
> Taking the predicted announcement buy you would now be long.
> 
> Where would the exit be? Next major bad news I suppose---you'd ignore minor?



Good idea, I second the motion.  What say you Yogi?


----------



## yogi-in-oz (8 February 2007)

Hi folks,

Mag ... you obviously did not read my earlier post, where 
i explained ONE strategy on how the positive cycle could 
have been used to confirm our other TA, to establish an 
entry at a critical support level, on a forecast and positive
cycle date.

---

tech ... as previously detailed, the entry strategy was 
triggered over the past couple of days ... next, stop loss 
is set in today's gap ... giving up some profit is not as 
painful as letting it turn into a loss ... 

Some may even choose to just run with a "disaster stop" 
at this stage ... that is, using a stop just above entry to 
cover costs, giving the price plenty of room for an
an expected test of support, in the days ahead ... then 
tightening it up, as the stock advances towards the 
next negative time target ... we all know, that there's 
MANY ways it can be done .....

..... between now and 22022007, there should be other
minor fluctuations, including a test of support at today's
gap-up, no doubt.

Anticipated aspects should keep market sentiment mostly
positive until early-March, where we will be watching for 
confirmation from our regular TA to take profits and even
look for another shorting opportunity, particularly going
into the negative cycle 05032007 ... 

Then again, by combining our regular TA, with our
forecast time cycles, we will likely be alert for another
change to the long side, in the latter half of March 2007,
as per time cycles, already posted .....

..... and so it goes on.

No, we don't get them all right, but by sustaining a good 
win/loss ratio, it makes the losers a lot less painful !~!

Will be posting less here, due to moving residence and an 
increasing workload this semester ... so good luck all ...  

happy days

  yogi

P.S. ... for trading purposes, PNN and PEN time cycles
           are identical, too.


----------



## coyotte (8 February 2007)

Although charts not based on PNN -- but  BSL

They are showing the conflict I find in mixing various methods.


1: AGET EW count has both major and intermediate at Wave 5 high

2: A reliable ATR system in MetaStock has BSL  still in a bullish move

3: Patterns could surgest a bull flag, a up trending line and a Triangle breakout above previouse highs 

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (8 February 2007)

Thanks Yogi.

So basically monitor the progress with technical trailing stops---whatever the trader decides to set the stops with and trade in the direction of the next major announcement.


So significant and negative is early March. If not taken out by a trailing stop would you then close before the announcement and go SHORT?

(This could coincide with the top of a wave "B" in the correction which I feel will occur.Then down to a possibly lower wave 3)


----------



## theasxgorilla (8 February 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> They are showing the conflict I find in mixing various methods.




Coyotte,

You've illustrated well what I think Magdoran might have been saying about "bolt on" methods, like EW.  

Based on the EW count chart on the left hand side, you'd expect the move up to be exhausted, right (5th of the 5th...)?  But looking at the chart on the right a trend-following system might be saying, enter now and go long, blue sky.

I revert to Magdoran's comments about such a method being applicable in about 30% of situations.  This is one of the other 70%.  In the AGET chart the EW count has been "discovered", but if I was doing that count visually and by hand I think I'd be more inclined to say that there isn't an obvious count there.


----------



## tech/a (8 February 2007)

Coyotte.

I cant see any conflict *just yet.*
The wave 5 of 5 isnt yet complete and I'll have a look and see what a few targets say tonight. So BSL is still nett bullish.


----------



## wavepicker (8 February 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Coyotte,
> 
> You've illustrated well what I think Magdoran might have been saying about "bolt on" methods, like EW.
> 
> ...




To get the most out about what is happening in terms of EW, you MUST start with the "big picture first"  The primary long term wavecount is the starting point. From there we must work our way down into the smaller timeframes and degrees of trend. EW works in a fractal geometrical way as this. Start big and work toward small to the timeframe you wish to trade.

Only by doing this you can determine the types of wave structure that may be in progress. Confidence of this may help you  determine the probabilities of certain structures that are most likely to follow.

Simply starting a EW count from anywhere may not yield the desired results consistantly.

The AGet wave counts are too simplistic and are really to be used with type 1 and 2 trade setups.  As mag has previously said, the best computer is the one in between your ears

Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla (8 February 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> To get the most out about what is happening in terms of EW, you MUST start with the "big picture first"  The primary long term wavecount is the starting point.




I totally agree...and still struggle to get a clear wave count onto BSL.  Anybody game?


----------



## Kauri (9 February 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I totally agree...and still struggle to get a clear wave count onto BSL. Anybody game?




  Hi ASX G..  
 I've got this on the weekly for an overall picture of where the trend/wave count is at...
    Cheers
             Kauri


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## It's Snake Pliskin (22 March 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> I would have thought there was more interest in the Fib extension. Is 2.618 unreasonable? I guess not for the young'uns. I'll be happy with 1.27



External retracement!  :


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## 56gsa (22 March 2007)

Yogi - you are an enigma!

ref first message on this thread re PNN

06022007 ... positive news expected here.  ANNOUNCEMENT 7/2
22022007 ... minor and intraday rally?  176 low 187 high
23-26022007 ... minor and positive PEAK OF THE RETRACEMENT
---
March 2007.
05032007 ... significant and negative 151 down to 135 low
22032007 ... significant and positive news ... TODAY 144.5 to high of 165


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## yogi-in-oz (22 March 2007)

56gsa said:
			
		

> Yogi - you are an enigma!
> 
> ref first message on this thread re PNN
> 
> ...






Many thanks for your kind words 56gsa ... positive feedback is 
always welcomed here ... !~!

However, the accuracy of that post, simply bears testament to the
ongoing proof, that Gann's astrotrading principles remain as relevant
today, as they were 100 years ago .....

..... so, in understanding that Gann and others like him, simply employed
the NATURAL cycles in our lives, we can then be humbled and admit, 
that as traders, we are only borrowing those astrotools to enhance our own
technical analysis ... and realizing then, our own contribution is virtually NIL.

Your post also comes at an opportune time, as today our Sun enters Aries,
marking the change of seasons and the start of Gann's trading year.

HAPPY NEW YEAR, Gannsters ... !~!

happy trading

  paul

P.S. ..... now let's hear why the EW crowd could not make any accurate
            forecasts on PNN, given they had the same opportunity, in this
            thread ... ???  Maybe, they just got their count wrong again, huh?

            Puhleeeeze ... it's time to give up LOOKING BACKWARDS at the 
            count and the man-made interpretations of lagging data  ... !~! 

It is now time, to work with the forward-looking God-given stuff instead,
using very specific natural laws, that NO MAN can EVER change.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (23 March 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> HAPPY NEW YEAR, Gannsters ... !~!
> 
> happy trading
> 
> ...





Happy New Year too Paul.

Are you saying EW is a waste of *time*? No pun intended.


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## yogi-in-oz (23 March 2007)

Hi Snake,

Given the evidence, it would certainly seem that EW counts 
are waaaay too subjective .....

..... if we intend to develop some reliable trading tools, we
should surely be building upon a solid foundation of objective
natural laws ... and if those laws could not be manipulated 
or changed by ANY traders, it must surely make our tools
a lot stronger ..... yes???

happy trading

  paul

P.S. ..... relying on EW wave counts, as our main trading indicator,
            automatically has us looking at lagging data and also ignoring
            the obvious benefits of analyzing the (constant) TIME axis.


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## >Apocalypto< (23 March 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi Snake,
> 
> Given the evidence, it would certainly seem that EW counts
> are waaaay too subjective .....
> ...





God that makes sense, Yogi totally agree with you. 

Yogi what are your thoughts of Market Profile & Meta Profile? It is something that really interests me.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (23 March 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi Snake,
> 
> Given the evidence, it would certainly seem that EW counts
> are waaaay too subjective .....
> ...




Thanks Yogi for your thoughts.
I'll ponder the consequences of studying EW any further. I am not biased at the moment but still considering alternative approaches particulaly leading indicators. Most say EW is objective due to the rules etc. But the practitioner may make it subjective. I notice the original work by Elliott is  not what it is today. 

Yogi I am exploring the time element.
Happy trading
Snake


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## yogi-in-oz (23 March 2007)

Trade_It said:
			
		

> God that makes sense, Yogi totally agree with you.
> 
> Yogi what are your thoughts of Market Profile & Meta Profile? It is something that really interests me.





  Hi Trade_It,

 ..... sorry buddy, know next-to-zero about either one, so 
cannot really make any informed comments, from this end ... 

have a great weekend

   paul


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## yogi-in-oz (23 March 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Thanks Yogi for your thoughts.
> I'll ponder the consequences of studying EW any further. I am not biased at the moment but still considering alternative approaches particulaly leading indicators. Most say EW is objective due to the rules etc. But the practitioner may make it subjective. I notice the original work by Elliott is  not what it is today.
> 
> Yogi I am exploring the time element.
> ...







..... nice work, Snake ... 

Time is constant and therefore, it must be easier to analyze,
than the highly variable price axis ... yes???

happy days

  paul


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## Agentm (24 March 2007)

i have to apologise to you yogi, i showed disrespect to you in dec on the adi thread..

i now am totally convinced you have something that somehow works..

i have apologised on the adi thread and i now need to urgently know the answer to my question..  is yogi god?


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## motorway (24 March 2007)

> Time is constant and therefore, it must be easier to analyze,
> than the highly variable price axis ... yes???




One is a function of the other ?

The price axis is "highly" variable.... precisely because the time axis BY choice
is constant

Make the time axis variable ... ( that is adaptive to the speed of trend )
and maybe the highly variable price axis is no longer highly variable..

The speed of light is a constant

Time = process  is anything but.

motorway


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## motorway (24 March 2007)

"







> Prior to Albert Einstein's relativistic physics, time and space had been treated as distinct dimensions; Einstein linked time and space into spacetime. He said that time was basically what a clock reads; the clock can be any action or change, like the movement of the sun."
> "the standard time interval (called conventional second, or simply second) is defined as 9 192 631 770 oscillations of a hyperfine transition in the 133caesium (Cs) atom."




****the clock can be any action or change******

This is very important point imo.. To take investment or trading to another level..

Time is not constant.... All it is  is what We determine the clock should be..

Time is what a clock reads..

Build a better clock ( a stock or market clock ) and you build better trading system...

The tides in nature have No reflection.. We can predict the tides of the sea
and even utilize them AND they will not change... Time here a process  is 
constant ...

If We attempt to predict events that feedback through reflection
If We predict and utilize the waves of the Market

They will NOT stay the same .. The very act of reflection alters them

Here Time as process IS not constant.. But constantly speeding up and slowing down.. eluding any attempt of utilizing a feed forward system...

Time is what the clocks read .Clocks read any process We decide
Very arbitrary....

Whats important is recognizing this.. And using the right clock for our purposes..

motorway


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## yogi-in-oz (25 March 2007)

motorway said:


> "
> 
> Time is what a clock reads..
> 
> ...






Hi folks,

... some of what you say is true, motorway.

However, many traders want to make it a lot more complicated,
than it ever needs to be ... let's KISS ... KEEP IT SIMPLE, SUNSHINE ... !~!

Firstly, time IS what a clock reads and if we use the right clock for our
purposes, we CAN use it to confirm better exits and entries, in the markets.

... to keep it simple, we use a base measure of time, that EVERYBODY will
understand ... !~!  ie ... 60 mins = 1 hour and 24 hours = 1 day

Just like your kitchen clock ... 

If we apply that time measure to the planets, the Venus will orbit the sun
in 225 days, year-after-year, just as it has been doing for eons ... likewise, 
our moon orbits earth every 28 days or 13 times every year 
and all the other planets in our solar system, will have a similar story ..... 

If we use time in that way ... it IS both constant and SIMPLE ... !~!

Using financial astrology, we recognize 10 planetary orbits in our solar 
sysem, that taken individually, remain constant.

If we then, take into account of the interaction, between those planetary
orbits (time cycles), then we can appreciate, that time MAY become a 
somewhat more dynamic entity ... with waves of individual cycles, shown
to interact, with each other.

Motorway mentioned the tides, which in themselves ARE a reflection of
the movements of our earth and moon, measured against both time and 
the position of the sun ... "as above, so below."

..... fortunately for traders, we only need to appreciate those dynamics,
at a very superficial (and mathematical level) and with the use of an
ephemeris, we can very quickly pinpoint the position of ANY planet, at
any point in time ... which makes it very easy to assess, on a 360 degree
dial, representing the "cosmic clock" or zodiac.


In short, to keep-it-simple for trading purposes, Gann used the planetary
cycles (measured in our regular time) to provide better market timing, 
as the planets aspected, known positive or negative triggers for individual
markets, on their never-ending journey, around the Sun. 


happy days

  paul



=====


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## yogi-in-oz (25 March 2007)

Agentm said:


> i have to apologise to you yogi, i showed disrespect to you in dec on the adi thread..
> 
> i now am totally convinced you have something that somehow works..
> 
> i have apologised on the adi thread and i now need to urgently know the answer to my question..






Hi agentm,

 ... no apology needed, nor expected ... here or anywhere ... !~!

Only God (whatever you perceive Him to be) is God ..... 

Fact is, these natural cycles are available for EVERYBODY to use, 
if they are prepared to make the effort ... learning some simple maths
and geometry, learning about the planets and their movements and some
simple interpretation, techniques, too ... !~!

happy days

 paul


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## Agentm (26 March 2007)

thanks yogi.. 

now the burning question is answered, i can rest easier a little!!  

phew!!!  i was getting worried as i had a lot of lose ends i needed to fix up and hadnt got round to yet, kinda got worried!!  

keep up the good work, and you are totally correct on adi, by dec the sp will be stratopheric, but for the next couple of months we all have to sit it out..

enjoy your kharma or whatever you guys do!! cheers


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## It's Snake Pliskin (27 March 2007)

Agentm said:


> thanks yogi..
> 
> now the burning question is answered, i can rest easier a little!!
> 
> ...




Agentm,

I like the avatar. Is that your cat?


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