# Trading the Aussie200



## DialecticBlue

I have been trading the XJO200 with CFD's for over a year now and I am getting quite good with it, so I thought I would let you know what I am doing each time I make a trade. This will either continue or I will make a complete fool of myself. Here's to putting them on the chopping block.

After sitting on the sidelines and wishing I had ridden the last wave down from 5600, where I had exited at around 5580 because I thought a significant resistance had been reached at around 5754 and there had been 4 days of rises which are inevitably followed by a pause or a drop, I put my toe in for a long position at 5158 [no kidding] and rode that 400 price rise up.

Then I looked on in diss-belief at most of it fritter away yesterday. Then this morning I got up early to see with the US was doing and it had done the same bloody thing - so time to bail out with around 20% of the intial profit intact and see what today held on the XJO. So far down, good decision.

Note that the last three significant pushes up in both the DOW and the ASX have been clobberd. Note also, that a lot of the 400 increase was probably short selling. Note also price of petrol which will impact on consumer confidence which will impact on company profits. 

Gotta figure that the chances of one more Elliot wave leg down is on the cards. Gotta remember not to fight the trend. Which I have done the last couple of times. BUT, the US did hold most of its gains last night, and it may just get on with it for what will probably be another sucker bounce.

The trouble with short positions at the moment is they we have implused so far down.

So, I'm gonna see what today holds on the ASX and maybe dip my toe into the US tonight for what is possibley and even money gamble for another rise.

My general trading  demeanour


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

All prices are from the CMC Trading Platfrorm

2:30pm 5160   Let's see what happens this afternoon

Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

3:22  XJO  5144, just popping above a flag on the 5 minute after a less than impressive day. It looks restless and could be setting up for a small rally by those who want to take a bet on the DOW tonight.

Dow 30 at 12,010 a slide of around 100 since close of trade, but still keeping more than 50% of the 400 gain.

If the XJO pops above 5144 I will take a small trade and gamble on the DOW overnight. 




Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

3:40 XJO 5124 took a single long gamble [uh, trade] on the basis that the big guys like to beat you up before allowing a sustained rise. Almost all the gains have been from the DOW surge have been wiped out, so the SL area is easy to work out and offer a good risk/reward gamble [sorry, trade].

The Dow has kept around 50% of its gains and the FED desparately want it all to get better.

I will now set my stop loss and not look at it until tomorrow morning before 7am EST before the DOW closes.

good night

probably do my money   



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

Correction

My first exit was at 5656 not 5600. And I took 2 small long trades early and took a small trading loss before cracking the big on. Bugger that it didn't get on with the job. Then again, that would have been too easy.

XJO 5140, probably stalled at the top of the flag.... it's so tempting just to take the lucky few dollars and run.   

good night


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## jersey10

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



DialecticBlue said:


> 3:40 XJO 5124 took a single long gamble [uh, trade] on the basis that the big guys like to beat you up before allowing a sustained rise. Almost all the gains have been from the DOW surge have been wiped out, so the SL area is easy to work out and offer a good risk/reward gamble [sorry, trade].
> 
> The Dow has kept around 50% of its gains and the FED desparately want it all to get better.
> 
> I will now set my stop loss and not look at it until tomorrow morning before 7am EST before the DOW closes.
> 
> good night
> 
> probably do my money
> 
> 
> 
> Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.




Which stock did u gamble on, I mean trade?


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## Aviator33

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

Thanks for sharing your live trades DialecticBlue - keep 'em coming!

Cheers
AV


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## happyjack

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

Hi Dialectic B

I was just wondering if it would be possible for you to put in just bit more detail in your thread? Why did you make a trade, it is great to know that you have made a winning trade but Why did you go long or short?   do you use Moving Averages or any Indicators? do you use Candles or OHLC bars? what type of charts do you use  Time or Periods, ( 1 day to 39 years or 25 units to 100 units) which tick do you use 2min 5 min 15 min ----, which data do you use the bid or the offer?  

Of course I do not expect (or want) you to write a 5 page answer to this but if in your post you were to say "I went short because ....."   or "I use the 10 unit charts rather than two weeks because it cuts out the confusions of public holidays and weekends" or I use the 7 - 21 period Moving average with a 15 minute chart for all day trades. This would be a great help to those of us who are trying to get it together on this sector.  Or if that is asking too much what about cutting and pasting the odd chart so that we can see the moving averages etc

I trade the "Aussie 200" (I won't call it the XJO because it close but not identical) with CMC and their ftse 100 but usually with only 4 or 5 CFD's I am just trying to get the feel for it. without loosing all my money.

happyjack


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



happyjack said:


> I trade the "Aussie 200" (I won't call it the XJO because it close but not identical) with CMC and their ftse 100 but usually with only 4 or 5 CFD's I am just trying to get the feel for it. without loosing all my money.




Guys what you are trading is a CFD on the SPI. Not the XJO.


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## tech/a

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



Aviator33 said:


> Thanks for sharing your live trades DialecticBlue - keep 'em coming!
> 
> Cheers
> AV




Cant see any trading here.

Lots of guessing,so pretty much gambling.

I would say that when the Dow tanks tonight DB will say he took the temptation of the"Few Lucky (whatever that is)$s"
If the Dow climbs then he will have held.

Oh one of the major Hedge funds went into liquidation in the US (Carlyle) according to Radge so the US markets wont like the 21Billion loss sustained by lenders.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...nds-shiver-through-credit-markets-792825.html


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## IFocus

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

DialecticBlue  you are likely to / have coped a few cynical comments on your posts about how you are going about your trades.

Don't take it personally (the market doesn't care about how you feel) but think about the message, your posting will hopefully bring some learning that will benefit you in the long run.

One point I will make is that if you are talking about gambling then you are likely to be gambling.

Good Luck


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

Interesting ride last night. 

I agree with all the comments. 1. As I noted, I have been doing OK for about a year now on the XJO [yes, I know CFD's are not the XJO, once again, also acknowledged in my thread, and I am about to change to a market taker not a market maker -- it is hard enough trading against the other traders, let alone them and CMC, but my trading risk management and SL placement have allowed me to be lazy and stay with them] 2. All Trading is gambling, if the definition of gambling is taking a calcualed risk. I rely heavily on risk/reward and very conservative use of trading capital/capital. ie: this makes me a few quid at long last, satisfies my trading instincts and I can't ever go broke. 3. I am not a financial advisor and as such I am wary of offering any sort of advice. You do not know me from a bar of soap, so I would suggest that if I can steadily build up over time then maybe I am worth watching as a way of either confirming your own decisions or challenging them, and, I may be making all this up

Last night at 11:36 I had a look at the Marketwatch news site, the XJO [bear with me calling it that, it's easier], the DOW30, Oil, Gold, US$ and London. The news was dismal, oil and gold were merrily beating the new bench marks and another financial institution was in trouble. So, I bailed out at 5190 for a loss of 34.  1. the indicies had not got on with it & 2. all the news was bad, so, the risk had shifted. 

Interestingly, after a rough ride, the news is quite positive this morning, so as I consider the reasons for the trade to be still valid, I will crawl back in at the opening. Oh, and I do not trade the news, but neither do I ignore it.

Reasons, the % chance of a change of direction, and all the indicators I use [ which are very few actually ] put the risk/reward in favour of a long trade. Yes, there is an element of bottom/top picking in my approach, but if you wait for full confirmation, then mostly the best of a short term trade has gone, and the risk/reward shifts.

This is trading, after all, not investing.  



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

9:57am took long position at 5,207


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

Can we assume that your stop is @ 5173 like your last 34 point loss??

And if so what would be your target? 5275?? to give a 2 to 1 R:R?

Which would require the SPI to go up another 1.3 % from the already 1.3%rise


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

All very techincal. We are either coming off a pivot point, or we are not. On the hourly - Aussie 200 - we seem to have triple bottom at 5090 and it has travelled through at 5147 trend line and is now forming a flag. The US is trying to get out of bed, the candle sticks indicate a chance of getting on with the Fed's wishes.

It's Friday and everyone is nervous.

But, you either stand back and wish you had traded or you hop in and manage the trade.

My exits are managed by SL as I have no idea about the future ..... do you?



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



DialecticBlue said:


> we seem to have triple bottom at 5090 and it has travelled through at 5147 trend line and is now forming a flag.



your flag has broken to the down side so is that a failed setup?



DialecticBlue said:


> It's Friday and everyone is nervous.




Who's nervous??



DialecticBlue said:


> But, you either stand back and wish you had traded or you hop in and manage the trade.




That's my point. Where is the trade management. 



DialecticBlue said:


> My exits are managed by SL as I have no idea about the future ..... do you?




It is no value to anyone reading this stuff if at least there is not a stated R:R in your trade setups. The first thing that should be considered is the point at which you accept that this trade has gone bad and how much that will cost you in relationship to the possible reward. 

This trade has been about 12 ticks up and 37 down. What do you possible hope to be giving the punters here with this stuff?


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

Trembling Hand ---- so, don't read it

I have just been out and I realised that my explanation of SL was contradictory. My trading has evolved over quite some time and have internalised most of it, I suppose.

I use Daily to get the over-all feel and try to get some sense of an Elliot Wave Pattern. I use one hour to set trend lines and stop loss pionts for when I am away from the screen. I use 5 minute for managing trading when I am at the screen.

I use the 5 minute to enter a trade and then see if it gets on with it or not and hopefully starts to follow a trend line on the hourly. 

My initial SL is to prevent a meltdown loss, rather than micro-mangage. Hence, last night my SL was down around the 5040 which I would have left for the night. If a trade starts to work I increase my SL to breakeven and pyramid to make up for the small loss trades getting in. I then increase the stop losses when the market stops trending and has a pause. SL just below the pause. After 2/3 days of rises I increase the SL to 50% of the impulse. Last night I was curious and did not like what I saw so I exited. I thought there was more risk on the downside than potential on up-side and a high chance it would meander if my assessment of the markets wanting to have a rise was right. 

This morning I decided that there was better than even chance the markets would rise so I simply entered. My SL is below the hourly triple bottom. I find that SL's that are too close to the action tend to be hit, particularly with CMC Market Makers [hence, my interest in changing over to a market-taker]. 
I am either right or I am wrong. I will look at the market again at 2:30, then 3:30 - 4. Then glance at the DOW30 until I go to bed. Not that that helps at all really. Exiting last night borderd on poor discipline. But, trading is about instinct mostly, I think


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


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## treefrog

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

hi blue - appreciate your input and concur with the advice not to take critics to heart - there is more than one way to skin a cat and i trade (short term) mostly without stops
here are the signals my system on the 2min charts have given this morning - seems to be a pump and dump day (again!)


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



treefrog said:


> - there is more than one way to skin a cat and i trade (short term) mostly without stops
> here are the signals my system on the 2min charts have given this morning -




But your system does have exits signals that may not be set price stops but they are nevertheless exit signals. Is that correct?


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## treefrog

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



Trembling Hand said:


> But your system does have exits signals that may not be set price stops but they are nevertheless exit signals. Is that correct?




that is correct TH - but manual (interpreted) exits and entries. I am sure everyone trading would say they at least had this - even the trend followers  - the more casual (ie most actually, and why they keep feeding money to the market) say I will get out when it turns but fail to do so.

These days I (and suspect most) understand stops to be preset auto activated

A point I have learnt and one that makes me far more than a stop saves is having a auto limit - particularly on ST trading


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

Ok guys thought I would put away the Real market(SPI) for a moment and hit a couple of these dodgy CFD index trades, just to show that I'm not a complete idiot that doesn't actual trade just criticize. As far as many ways to skin a cat, I'm a very active scalper, will often do a % or two of the SPI  market up to lunch then go on to the HSI. Any way 15 minutes 9 trades 6 points X 50 contracts, which sucks if that was the SPI it would of been closer to 12 but that @ market + spread is there for a reason(take your money)


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## Mike Trader

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



DialecticBlue said:


> I have been trading the XJO200 with CFD's for over a year now and I am getting quite good with it, so I thought I would let you know what I am doing each time I make a trade. This will either continue or I will make a complete fool of myself. Here's to putting them on the chopping block.
> 
> After sitting on the sidelines and wishing I had ridden the last wave down from 5600, where I had exited at around 5580 because I thought a significant resistance had been reached at around 5754 and there had been 4 days of rises which are inevitably followed by a pause or a drop, I put my toe in for a long position at 5158 [no kidding] and rode that 400 price rise up.
> 
> Then I looked on in diss-belief at most of it fritter away yesterday. Then this morning I got up early to see with the US was doing and it had done the same bloody thing - so time to bail out with around 20% of the intial profit intact and see what today held on the XJO. So far down, good decision.
> 
> Note that the last three significant pushes up in both the DOW and the ASX have been clobberd. Note also, that a lot of the 400 increase was probably short selling. Note also price of petrol which will impact on consumer confidence which will impact on company profits.
> 
> Gotta figure that the chances of one more Elliot wave leg down is on the cards. Gotta remember not to fight the trend. Which I have done the last couple of times. BUT, the US did hold most of its gains last night, and it may just get on with it for what will probably be another sucker bounce.
> 
> The trouble with short positions at the moment is they we have implused so far down.
> 
> So, I'm gonna see what today holds on the ASX and maybe dip my toe into the US tonight for what is possibley and even money gamble for another rise.
> 
> My general trading  demeanour




Hi ,I have found ,after trialling some of the cfd Xjo's I have found some have a tendency to jump around quite a bit-more so than the actual futures contract(which I trade)
due to ,I think , a lower volume-since there is no volume shown for most of these cfds ,this market is open to fluctuations by scalping small moves with lots of contracts since they seem to be at a premium up or down ,even to the futures contract,taking out wide stops quite regularly (I'm talking intraday.)Has anyone noticed this phenomena?Or am I imagining it?I just find the full contract more predictable.


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## Wysiwyg

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



Trembling Hand said:


> Ok guys thought I would put away the Real market(SPI) for a moment and hit a couple of these dodgy CFD index trades, just to show that I'm not a complete idiot that doesn't actual trade just criticize. As far as many ways to skin a cat, I'm a very active scalper, will often do a % or two of the SPI  market up to lunch then go on to the HSI. Any way 15 minutes 9 trades 6 points X 50 contracts, which sucks if that was the SPI it would of been closer to 12 but that @ market + spread is there for a reason(take your money)




Hi hand, smee again, checked your trades out and with a 2 point spread on the aussie 200 you only had 2 winning trades and the rest were losses or break even.Shorts #105402157 &  105402432 were the winning trades.Is this the way you see the trades shown?


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



Wysiwyg said:


> Hi hand, smee again, checked your trades out and with a 2 point spread on the aussie 200 you only had 2 winning trades and the rest were losses or break even.Shorts #105402157 &  105402432 were the winning trades.Is this the way you see the trades shown?




no. -2,0,0,1-2,5,0,3,1


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## Wysiwyg

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



Trembling Hand said:


> no. -2,0,0,1-2,5,0,3,1




Oh o.k. no spread on the aussie 200 with your service provider.All clear now.Thankyou.


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



Wysiwyg said:


> Oh o.k. no spread on the aussie 200 with your service provider.All clear now.Thankyou.




No there is a spread, 2 points, but they are the prices that the trades where executed at. CFDs suck for short term trades as you have to always get over that spread then sell at market. Just to get a scratch trade you need it to go 2 points in your favour. On the Futures if you can work the spread that would of been a 2 or 3 point winner.


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## happyjack

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

Great stuff Blue, keep it coming, I think some people have seen your name and decided that it is OK to be rude, they don't realise that it is possible to disagree politely. looking forward to anything you may have to say about a change in platform.
Happyjack


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

re - trades 

gotta start somewhere, and I am not trying to sell or prove anything, just increasing my knowledge and indulging in my small trading 'habit'. 

I suppose from what I have seen here and over time that everyone has to find their own trading method which suites their psychology.

It was a good winning trade until the exit and 5656. I kept 82 or the 400 Dow rise and lost 34 of it last night. Went in at 5207 this morning and will see what the Dow does tonight. 

I am not particularly interested in sitting and trading all day, scalping the 5 or less minute. I find it tedious and do not need to make the money, so why bother. I hasten to add, I am not knocking it, it just isn't for me.

But, I do spend most of my time at the screen writing, so a glance at the trading platform is not so difficult. I try to limit it to open, 11:30, 2:30, 3:30 and the occassional glance after closing.

Overall, I am up after this years trading, but it has taken a few years to be consistent. That, of course, could cease as of now, particularly in this uncertain and choppy environment.


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

4:02

I will hold over-night and exit at the DOW close of trade tomorrow morning. Call it insurance.

On the hourly - resistance at 5220 and wrong below the triple bottom at 5100, hopefully it will act as support. But, if I put the SL too close then there is bound to be a push through before any turn around. So will put the SL at 5007 only to prevent complete meltdown over-night which so far I have managed to avoid, partly though good management and un-doubtably partly through luck. Still reckon we are in for a rally of some sort.

haveagoodweekend

Dialecticblue


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

That was interesting. Got up and decided to break the insurance rule and add to my position, 5118. Stubborn or stupid, time will tell. Notice how it bounced of the resistance of 5100 for most of the time and then had a spike down to around 5078. So, if I had set my SL at 5080, a logical place, it would have been stopped out. For sure, with CMC, hence market makers and tight SL's are deadly.

Why add?  5100 has now been bounced off for a while and it goes back to the Jan 22nd low spike. So, the bounce scenario on the ASX is still a reasonable assumption, and will not be invalidated until a clean break below 5100.

The US30 tanked to around 11,846, scurried up, then tanked again to 11,846, or thereabouts, then scurried up to finish around 11970. Bear-Sterns was a bummer, and if it is the sign of things to come, then we are in for a drubbing. But, that is the last thing the Fed wants and we may see a whopping .75 basis point cut this week. Risk reward - near a clear resistance line which gives a clear exit point, .75 cut and possible another 400 pointer.

Insurance is OK, but there is no need to be silly about it. 

Some answers to points in the blog:

1. My trading is based on a a few things, overt and internalised, but I suppose if you want to put a label on it, you could try a version of swing trading. With a close eye on the 200 Day moving average and any clear Candle Sticks - note the first trade I talked about was signaled by a clear resistance line - on the daily - and a clear shooting star. Well, on the CMC platform, at least.
2. I only trade the Assie200 cause I figured that I only need to trade one thing really well, and consitantly, to do well. I used to get all excited after a few good trades and look for whatever I could find to capitilise on my genius. Invevitably there would be a correction and I would be too highly exposed - mainly for my psychololgy rather than wallet, I am a not a gambler at heart - so I would bail out, cut my losses and sulk for a while. I noticed that I was right more than I was wrong, but I was losing money. Why? I needed to keep my losses/potential losses well within a psychological limit. Some people could risk 100% of their capital and sleep well at night. I found I can risk less than 1% of my capital and sleep well at night. So, last night I couldn't really care less what happened, and that is just what you need to be a successful trader, I believe. I then could back my judgement and add to the position because it cannot possibly effect me financially.
3. The Assie200/XJO because I can go to sleep at night with a SL and not wake up to a massive move. That has become less imperative now that my trading capital is so conservative. I geuss I just feel more in control. Also, the 200 stocks tend to smooth things out a bit.
4. I will try to be accurate with the trades, but frankly, I didn't think anyone would be interested and I really don't take this all that seriously. 

DialecticBlue


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


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## treefrog

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



> I noticed that I was right more than I was wrong, but I was losing money. Why? I needed to keep my losses/potential losses well within a psychological limit. Some people could risk 100% of their capital and sleep well at night. I found I can risk less than 1% of my capital and sleep well at night.




good point blue - traders call it the wall - the level of funds staked at which you no longer trade effectively

for some its moving off a very impressive demo a/c into real money of any level - for others its moving into highly margined trades where they are unable to handle even one lot (100k for a 1k stake), and others just moving from pocket money into risking their real wealth - regardless of their money management system


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

10:23 - Assie200 - 5174

The trade ain't over till the fat lady sings

I'll have a look at 3:30 and see what the close has in store.


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

4:10     Assie200  5093  I will hold to see what the Fed have in store. A large interest rate cut is anticipated by the market, so it is unlikely to have a massive impact. Could even diss-appoint.


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## happyjack

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

Hi Blue 
The UK 100 index opened at 5600 and immediately fell like a brick to 5520. did you notice, CMC have moved their spread to 4 points instead of 2 on the Aussie ?

Happyjack


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



happyjack said:


> Hi Blue
> The UK 100 index opened at 5600 and immediately fell like a brick to 5520. did you notice, CMC have moved their spread to 4 points instead of 2 on the Aussie ?




Happyjack CMC tracks the SPI Bid/Ask in the overnight session. And that can have anything up to 20 points spread at times. A 4 point spread on the overnight is not that bad a spread.


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## Wysiwyg

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



DialecticBlue said:


> All prices are from the CMC Trading Platfrorm
> 
> 2:30pm 5160   Let's see what happens this afternoon
> 
> Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.





I`m lost dialectic blue.So you are still long Aussie 200 cash in at 5160 (increased exposure at 5118) with a stop loss at 5007.



> So will put the *SL at 5007* only to prevent complete meltdown over-night




Even with one $25  contract that stop loss is a fair bit of breathing space.


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## chops_a_must

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



Wysiwyg said:


> I`m lost dialectic blue.So you are still long Aussie 200 cash in at 5160 (increased exposure at 5118) with a stop loss at 5007.
> 
> 
> 
> Even with one $25  contract that stop loss is a fair bit of breathing space.




I thought the same thing.

There is no way I would EVER accept a $2500+ loss on the SPI, no matter what time frame. Utter nonsense.


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



chops_a_must said:


> Utter nonsense.




That just about sums it up Chops.

Trading without an edge, no risk management, no care for correct execution, no logical stop, averaging down, all the works of a real trader

Yes I'm negative but I can only hope that someone starting out trading doesnt think this is the way to trade an index.


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## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

All that detail

Aussie200 - 10:28am    5085

Fat lady is still singing.

Yep, still in there to see what will happen tonight.

I know there are a lot of fancy theories, but it is really about managing the trade within your own psychological profile & capital.

I do that OK fellas, and I sleep at night, and I ain't goona to, nor do I have to, sit here staring at the screen all day. See ya at 3:30

And yes, I still allow my psychology to get the better of me at times and make a silly trade or SL setting, but never to any real cost, just a minor fiscal irriation.

SL's are an interesting subject. I tend to think of them as Stop Profits as everyone can see where they are and the big guys take them out for a laugh. So, where to set them is a matter of personal risk profile or sitting in front of the screen, which is extremely tedious.

Yes, I was trading the Assie200 one morning after I found a lag between the US30 and the Aussie200. I was doing quite well until the spreads went out as far as 25 at one stage. Must get off my butt and sign in with a market taker.



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it. (not that it would appear that anyone is ........... which is sensible of them)


----------



## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

4:24 - Aussie200 5094 - within the support 5100 and resistance band 5200 - for those who like to state the obvious, 5094 is close enough, and it is now 4:36 Assie200 closed at 5101. US30 is bouncing along at around the close, not that that seems to mean much.

We all wait on the Fed it seems.

Why assume I have risked 2,500 and why assume that it is of concern to me?

Risk is a matter of % of capital you are happy to lose. For some that is $25, for others $250 for others $2,500. Packer used to bet millions on a race horse. He could afford it so he lost no sleep.

The 2 mistakes I made of late are 1. not trading the short side of the first trade, however I thought we were probably headed for a brief corretion. Wrong! 2. Looking at the US market before going to bed and being spooked by the news [which lags, not leads]. Should have stayed in. 

I see trading as a continuous ride until profitability can be achieved or I am proven definitely wrong. I don't see it as a series of snap shots dictated by rigid rules. Trade within your risk profile and capital allows that approach. 

At the moment the risks are on the downside - bank problems - but the market wants to go up as it is too far from the mean.




My disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## treefrog

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



DialecticBlue said:


> 4:24
> We all wait on the Fed it seems.
> 
> I see trading as a continuous ride until profitability can be achieved or I am proven definitely wrong. I don't see it as a series of snap shots dictated by rigid rules. Trade within your risk profile and capital allows that approach.
> 
> At the moment the risks are on the downside - bank problems - but the market wants to go up as it is too far from the mean.



agree DB, but the longer it sits in this consolidation area the % increases for more downside
not so sure about hanging it all on the financials - two sectors that have been supporting the XAO since Nov (energy and materials) are both looking very ordinary on the current weekly charts


----------



## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

Yes, I agree TF

The more it travels sideways the more the risk of a break-out become 50:50

I also agree that Fin and Materials looking sick but both have reasons to bounce around a little for a correction. ?????????? 

But, unless there is more banking bad news, the Fed will want to see the Dow head north. The traders know that, so it is probable that no matter what the Fed announce, the market will go down, to shake out the long positions. 

That should be short lived and reverse for the reversion to the mean - I use a 200 day moving average.

bloody hope so

Assie200 5,114 with upward momentum (back in the game). Dow30 quite perky. UK100 with a nice gap they must want to fill (once again, bloody hope so)

All of which probably means a stab down to test nerves.


----------



## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

7:38 - see, slept OK, didn't even wake up before the DOW closed

so, the Dow surprised by not doing anything surprising

bugger, thought of adding to the position last night, but didn't have the balls

Assie200 - 5,248  -- hope the fat lady stays in her dressing room this time

3rd time lucky? I will look at adding this afternoon. 

Mulled a little over the reference to trading on the edge. That I supose means risking a loss that would hurt financially. You might, I don't.

I traded last night without a SL (gasp, horror), forgot frankly. I place them so far away that it is only for a meldown. And, did you see the f'n great spike down early in the day (US) which had to be the deliberate feint I always bang on about. Imagine waking up to a 400 point rise on the Dow and you had been stopped out just before. Well, I don't have to imagine. That is why I developed this trading strategy which is fluid rather than static.

I can trade without a SL and still sleep-in because it is well within my psychological risk profile. The Dow could have gone down 1,000 points, a 500/600 point loss on the ASX and the effect on me would have been to go, 'bugger' and drink St Henri tomorrow night instead of Grange. 

That's a new take, eh?


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

GOLD

[prices from CMC Marketmaker Daily]

from breakout 676 we have 1, 2, th,th three, a lovely shooting star.

50% retrace of 2 - 3 = 900 which formed a nice triangle on the way up.

????????????????


----------



## tech/a

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

So long at 5160.


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



DialecticBlue said:


> Mulled a little over the reference to trading on the edge. That I supose means risking a loss that would hurt financially. You might, I don't.




Your a funny man!! You don't even know what you don't know.

A trading edge is  information, statistical or historical proven advantage.

It doesnt refer to how big your balls are.

The fact that you are trading $1 per tick insy winsy contract would suggest that you have no edge. Or you would be trade something of value. How are you ever going to trade the real market thing at $25 per tick as you have suggested hanging on and averaging down 200 odd points.

But well done we will be up today and you will be back in the money.
Maybe Ben can cut again tonight and you will be able to afford a hot chocolate for Easter. Not so sure about the St Henri or Grange


----------



## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

you're going to love this

400/2= 200

5100 + 200 = 5300

Lessons from last couple of times, ASX goes up about 50% of the Dow increase. Any increase afte that is statistically improbable.

Thought I would see if it would get on with it, so put in a SL at 5280 and was duly hit, 10:23

I still think the ASX will get on with it, but I want to see the end of trading today, or very strong momentum

sleep well


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

I have three sayings [among others] above the screen - which apply to trading and life -- 'Mind set in one direction'; 'Need to be dynamic and respond to the market'; Cognative dissonance is out to get you'

Dow30 ?? Elliot Wave:14,140 - 12,736 = W1; 12,736 - 13,742 = W2;

13742 -11460 = w3; very complex w4, say 12,747. 

wave 5 can't be the longest, so the max (w3) takes us to 10,465. Allow 66% = 11,241

10,465 - 11,241 takes us to a double bottom in June - Aug 2007


Aussie200 ??= Elliot Wave: 1 6,847 - 6,326 = W1; 6,326 - 6,731 = W2;

6,731 - 5258 = W3 (bugger, wished I'd traded that, mind set in one direction!); W4 complex - 5258 - 6020, but I prefer 5780, the top of the consolidation - the other was a spike.

wave 5 can't be the longest so the max (w3) takes us to 4,307. Allow 66% = 4808.

4800 coresponds to a base formed in June - Oct 2007

So, having wriggled out of the last trade for a profit, do I now trade this potential w5 and go against the fed and the reversion to the mean.

?????????????? something to think about

And no I am not warranting any of the above as accurate, but the gist is sound, I think.

Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



> Your a funny man!! You don't even know what you don't know.




And here is an example.



> wave 5 can't be the longest




Of course it can.
You need to learn Elliott if your going to attempt to apply it.
In indexes it often is!


Try downloading Print key 2000 then Photobucket so you can post charts.
That way you may make more sense.


----------



## DialecticBlue

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

yes, should check more carefully

wave 3 can't be the shortest. The rest hangs OK around that, but I don't pretend to be an Ellito Wave expert, it is just something to think about. 

fella's, I'm just posting them as I see them. The disclaimer says it all and I ain't trying to sell nothing.


trade well


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*

Please note that I have changed the title of this thread to "Aussie200" instead of XJO, so everybody knows that it is a CFD product rather than actual futures.


----------



## waz

Very unusual, the aussie has been trading extremely flat for the last hour.

Volatility is normally our friend when trading the aussie.


----------



## julius

Not through lunch Waz...volume picks up after ~2pm


----------



## DialecticBlue

Prawn 86 -I agree and will do so, but not until tomorrow morning.

4:03 - Aussie200 5203     Dow30 - 12,387

both flat, hmmmm

The Fed has shot its bolt, I think. Another massive interest rate cut would seem desparate. Actually, this one was, but what the heck. Bernanke is fighting the 1930's depression of which he is an expert [expert, a drip under pressure]. All that free money and no-ones wants to borrow it. Bastards.

It's just that he doesn't have a clue what to do with this one which appears to be developing rapidly. 

They are actually opening the Fed window to the brokers such as Bear-Sterns. If you follow that logic, they will soon be lending to the sub-prime defaulters - hello mrs jackson, yes we do take your used dildos as security.

'mind set in one direction'; need to be dynamic ....

I will wait out the Dow overnight, don't think there is much chance of a follow through - and don't care if there is.

I will wait for a shorting opportunity for the leg 5 I can't identify.

At around 5400 where there is a trend line.

Might break another rule and have ago at the Dow30 as well.



very much -- Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## DialecticBlue

7:08 - jeez, you'd think they could have got on with it for a couple of days 

if you looked at the US30 chart you would have seen a steady climb until the announcment - I assume, as I was asleep and I couldn't be bothered looking up the time - then a sharp spike down, then a relatively small rise which was all but wiped out by 11pm Aus time. The ASX held the morning gain, but did not show any signs of real interest. Last night was going to tell us, and it did.

Assie200   5206

probably worth a short over easter, with any luck some American Bank will go belly up.

gold is behaving well



Another quote from my wall --- 'but remember, if you a clinician you know when somebody sounds crazy it usually means you're not smart enought to figure it out.'



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



prawn_86 said:


> Please note that I have changed the title of this thread to "Aussie200" instead of XJO, so everybody knows that it is a CFD product rather than actual futures.




XJO is not the futures Prawn. XJO is the cash market. the SPI is the futures.

sorry to be picky


----------



## DialecticBlue

no one's going to believe it, but

last night I was mulling over the reaction to the Fed Actions and I came to the conclusion that it was not logical in the short term. It was more a reflex response, helped no doubt by the big money which you always have to 2nd guess. Easter was looming and no-one in Aus was prepared to ‘bet’ on what the US would do last night. So they went on holiday and the Aus market wallowed.

But, it did not go below the established resistance of 5100 and by the time I had a look, at around 11pm, it was struggling up. The US30 had also come off the bottom and the futures (Marketwatch Report) were showing a modest bit of enthusiasm. 

The Aussie200 was closing at midnight. 

My conclusion (guess?) was that the spike down after the Fed announcement would be reversed and that while normally the traders would want to eat their Easter eggs without long positions, they would have to scramble back into the market if it decided to go long last night.

If it did so, then waiting out the Aussie200 would be a mistake since it would gap up on opening.

So, at around 11pm I took two small long positions. One in the Assie200 at 5179 and the other in the US30 at 12,166.

But, that was lucky too, I suppose.

Have a happy and safe Easter.


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## tech/a

> no one's going to believe it, but




*Yep your right.*

A post 5 mins after your pretend trade was supposedly taken and you'd have restored some credibility.
Not at 6 in the morning when youve woken to a US rally.


----------



## DialecticBlue

This ain’t kindergarten of the air. I am not making any recommendations and all my posts to date, except that one, have been posted in real time.  You can believe me or not, couldn’t give a toss really.


----------



## tech/a

This is now likely to be a sustained run I'm still favoring this analysis.




For 3 main reasons.

(1) The weakening of the Aussi $ against the Green back.
(2) Weakening Gold price dramatic and sustained.
(3) Weakening of Oil prices.

Technically I think the chart is self evident.
Possible end to wave 5 and "A" in this corrective move.
Lower targets mentioned are still highly likely but are more likely to be hit on the leg "C" after "B" later in the year.
This rise could be sharp.


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



>Apocalypto< said:


> XJO is not the futures Prawn. XJO is the cash market. the SPI is the futures.
> 
> sorry to be picky




Cheers A.

You know what i meant  :


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



prawn_86 said:


> Cheers A.
> 
> You know what i meant  :




Yeh I was with U!


----------



## DialecticBlue

Certainly hope so, and for what it is worth, that is my opinion also. At this time, until the market tells me otherwise. I will use the hourly chart and trend lines to manage the trade, with due nervousness near resistance.

Helped last night by the 7:30 Report John Clarke/Bryon Dawe being so gloomy and predicting the end of the economic world. When the talking heads are gloomy it is generally time to be optimistic.




Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## tech/a

> Helped last night by the 7:30 Report John Clarke/Bryon Dawe being so gloomy and predicting the end of the economic world. When the talking heads are gloomy it is generally time to be optimistic.




Well I'm certainly not ruling out that possibility.

Just that its going to take a while to take hold.
Life rafts are being launched as quick as they can,they have to run out before armageddon.
Any rally is likely to be short lived.


----------



## DialecticBlue

I agree, I'm going to nurse this one like a nervous kitten

I think there are still some surprises in there.

W5 is a looming & ever present threat from the long side.


----------



## DialecticBlue

Added to the US30 position this morning. That will be the last increase, I will now manage the trade - 12,547

The US news was good - housing and BS

All this optimism means a nasty surprise to test nerves - but I think momentum may build.

I will add to the Assie200 today, probably at the end of day.


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## DialecticBlue

If you take the % rise of the Dow, then,depending on where you measure it from, the Assie200 should end up around 5400.

Added to the position - 5365 on that basis, rather than see what the day had in store - although I can't see any basis for another sinking day

still .................????????

just cleaned up after the next door neigbours mutt - now 5337 (low, so far, 5327)

and showing some signs of life - but not much. Oh well, it also could have over-shot the mark.

Watchin the 5400 resistance area


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## Trembling Hand

DialecticBlue said:


> If you take the % rise of the Dow, then,depending on where you measure it from, the Assie200 should end up around 5400.
> 
> Added to the position - 5365 on that basis, rather than see what the day had in store - although I can't see any basis for another sinking day




This is exactly what I meant about trading without an edge.

Do you know the statistical probability of the above trade?? That is buy the open on strength.

A quick back test of the last 3 months where you buy the open when the SPI has gaped greater than 1% from the previous days close (4:30)

By the end of the day you would have had 9 losers and only 6 winners!! but even worse the total number of points you would end up with on these 15 trades is a massive *negative 460 points*. 

If you make the filter a gap greater than 1.5% its even worse only 3 winners and 6 losers but a total of negative 300 lost!! And that's only saved by one day being up 249 points, a very unusual day!

As every Index trader knows except you its better to fade these gaps rather than run with them. Even if you are looking at a longer term it makes no sense to buy the open. If you take the first test and hold until the close three days later again a total of negative 614 points!! 

NO TRADING EDGE!!


----------



## DialecticBlue

TremblingHand - Thanks, I actually appreciate that post

I didn't buy on strength, I bought because the open was way below what I calculated was the probable rise for the day.

Then, to add insult to injury, I added to the position when it broke out of that long consilidation - 5 minute. 5332 (not good psychology I grant you, I just had the s...s and could see no reason for the market to be where I had calculated)

If it had of fallen below that consolidation I would have exited the entire position to see what the afternoon held and whether the US30 was still holding  - not that that tells you much at that time

I am playing with 'their' money now, so I am quite relaxed about losing some of it.

I will exit the 5332 trade this afternoon as it has taken me over my comfort zone and was not a considered trade

Yes, I am buying for a trade that I expect to be in for around 2/3 days.

I am aware that you regard this as seat of the pants trading. I used to do my aerobatics that way. One of my instructors, who was more 'fluid' in his approach, quite liked it as it was smoother. Another one couldn't stand it and wanted clear clean execution. I also don't seem to get on terribly well with engineers.

Consider this thread as a lesson in what not to do. 

Either that, or interest will fade and so will it

Once again, thanks for your comment. I do not disagree.

Finally, all this is so far within my risk tolerance that it is just something to occupy me while I write.

1:32 5351 and falling, minor resistance at 5344 (5 minutes), wonder if it will hold




Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it. It is, after all, highly personal to my psychology and bank account


----------



## julius

god knows why you would be looking for longs on ~190 point gap

it's short or nothing at all imo...


----------



## DialecticBlue

That's why the market goes up and down

Just exited all the trades. If the market surges into the close then so be it.

Assie200 5344 and US30 12,542

Why change my mind? 

Strong resistance at 5400 Aussie200 and 12680 US30 gives little up-side

Two strong up days US30, and a fizzer of a day Assie200.

So, I would rather book the profit and see if it travels cleanly through those two resistance areas 

There will still be plenty of profit if it does. 

I have to agree with everyone who thinks the US will contine to go up. I just decided that the resistance ceiling was too close 

Hope you all make a motza tonight



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Hi, is the market more predictable now?A rise one day and fall the next.If so a big short on the aussie 200 would be put in - take out.Yes!


----------



## chops_a_must

julius said:


> god knows why you would be looking for longs on ~190 point gap
> 
> it's short or nothing at all imo...




Exactly. Especially past r4!!!

Easiest opening trade on the SPI for a while.


----------



## DialecticBlue

I can't remember where I read it today -- some bigshot in the US is asking the banks to come clean and get it over with.

Don't want to be around when that happens

Of course, if you click on the link that Trembling Hand posted just a couple of posts up, then the sub-prime could just be the tip of the iceberg

Also, on the ABC Newsite - Greenspan is saying how this is the worst financial crisis since WWII

Which would be funny if it wasn't so annoying, since he caused it in my opinion.

He now advises a hedge fund. Is he talking the market down to set the hedge fund up for a long position.

Finally, as to today, I was looking for a surge through 5400 which was possible if the ASX had come out of the blocks sprinting [hence my position this morning, usually I prefer to wait until the end of day, unless I don't] and a strong close. The market had all the momentum of a wet bunger. 

So, out and wait.

I'm not taking a short position because there is also a strong argument for the US deciding to get on with it tonight or sometime this week




Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## DialecticBlue

Need to be dynamic and respond to the market

Beware of mind set in one direction

Cognitive dissonance is out to get you


I thought I would have a look at what was going on.

The headline for Marketwatch is - 'Europe Roars'. I thought, oh well, completely got that one wrong.

Alan Kholer on the ABC News had been breathless with excitement telling us that the ASX had doubled the DOW rise. Really? He omitted to mention the massive rise on Thursday night which triggered it. I double checked my numbers and I still reckon that a comparable rise on the Assie200 would have been at least 5400 -5480. In other words, cleanly breaking through the resistance and finishing at the top for the day. It has now faded to 5324 and the DOW30 has faded to 12,517.

The UK100 having shot to 5700 has faded to 5672 and is obviously waiting for a lead from the Dow

So, it is possible that it was the mouse that roared. 

If the rise last night has sucked in traders looking for the bounce, then up goes the Dow. But it has had two healthy rises in a row, so the odds are diminishing for a 3rd one and both the US30 and the Aussie200 are bumping up against strong resistance.

If you had noticed my post on Gold a while back (this thread), I suggested a fall to around the 900 was possible - it fell to 906. While I see no evidence that the Dow intends to roar, gold certainly is, and is now 930. If my analysis is correct it will go past the 1,000 on this leg. And, sometime in the next 5 years, one once of gold will buy the S&P500.

Which all means a monstor rally on the Dow tonight, because I'm stepping aside.


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## DialecticBlue

Need to be dynamic and respond to the market

Beware of mind set in one direction

Cognitive dissonance is out to get you!


just goes to show

after all that pontificating the market showed the way

minutes after the last post it took off

so took a position in the Aussie200 at 5440 and the US30 at 12,586

The main lesson is that I got too close to the market today and got caught by the noise. Still think a bit more effort could have been put into the ASX



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## Wysiwyg

> Cognitive dissonance is a psychological state that describes the uncomfortable feeling between what one holds to be true and what one knows to be true.




Isn`t that emotion or self?Like i`m right and the majority are wrong.
No one gets it right all the time.Is that acceptable.


----------



## DialecticBlue

Basically, my take on cognative dissonance -- when you have a belief in your head, ie: the market is going to go up, and you then filter out all news that says it will go down and take in all news that says it will go up. Plus, we tend to distort information to fit into our own belief. In effect, you see what you want to see, what fits into the belief that is in your head.

So, you have to try to be as objective as you can.

When the market blipped a while ago I became very human and took the trade as on the one hand I think the resistance areas will stop it but on the other hand all the news i& logic is up. 

It then went back down, which triggered a couple of tight SL's I had in. I am too unsure to let it run this time. fortunately I made a profit on the Aussie200 which all but off-set the loss on the US30.

I suspect it is a fake out.


trade well, i'm out of here to watch that movie on the Stones - 'stoned' to see what I missed - might keep an eye on the open at the same time


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## DialecticBlue

DOW

Was that the pause that refreshes, or has it bumped its head?


----------



## DialecticBlue

last post on this thread

I have taken a short position at 5408. I believe that it is in a tight wedge of a trend line and a resistance at 5411 

US30 will hit a similar wedge at around 12,740

gold has been good



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.


----------



## happyjack

And so we say Farewell as Dialectic Blue fades slowly into the sunset, (best of luck mate and thanks for your effort, I certainly got a lot out of your work"
utthedoor:


Now do we let this thread drop dead or do we do something constructive with it, like post ANYTHING that we may pick up concerning the "Aussie 200"? or any opinions we may have as to the direction it may be going?

Just to kick it off I am going long (no surprise there hey) but the signals I am using are weekly so I should be long for a fair while it is a VERY small trade just to see if some signals I have been given work, I will let you know how it goes.

And before the usual bunch of feaces throwers start off, You are :horse: as none of you impress me enough to give a cr#p


Happyjack
all care no responsibility
DYOR


----------



## happyjack

America had a large drop on Friday so today it will be interesting to find out if the resistance around 5400 will hold or whether it is heading for the cellar. there was a 40point drop at the open, not a good sign, I am probably wrong but it always seems to me that whatever it does in the first half hour it does the opposite for most of the rest of the day,

bingo it has passed down through the bollinger and ........

it is now going back up to the centre of the bollinger

I need a bear, sorry freudian slip I meant Beer


Happyjack


----------



## happyjack

The Bollinger  is narrowing even further the Aussie 200 opened down at 5346 and then went to almost 5300 before starting a horizontal run with smaller and smaller waves it is now at the point where the candles are barely 3to 5 points each. and it is starting a very gradual upward incline (I know ALL inclines are upward) any one got any Ideas, is that all there is, has resistance won? 

Now at 5336

happyjack


----------



## happyjack

It is now trading at the top of the band area it has passed through the 5,10, and 20 moving averages but the candles for some reason are red, even though the trend is going up

Just when I am convinced it is going long it turns back down again  and is now in the centre between the bands and below the 5 & 10 MA

Happyjack


----------



## Trembling Hand

happyjack said:


> Just to kick it off I am going long (no surprise there hey) but the signals I am using are weekly so I should be long for a fair while it is a VERY small trade just to see if some signals I have been given work, I will let you know how it goes.




You still long from the 5th of April post?


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## happyjack

Nobody is following this so I am fairly safe in saying this, The chart pattern at the beginning of today's CMC markets Aussie 200 is one I call the bears bum, because sometimes after it the chart goes up, so the bear has got up and wandered off, mind you equally, sometimes it doesn't ....... lol

I am going to the post office if I go away perhaps it will start doing something.

Happyjack

all care no resposibility DYOR


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## happyjack

Still long on the long term scheme of things but I picked up 20 points on shorts this morning but I think the day will end up. 

Of course having said that the market will now crash and burn, 

Don't follow me I am lost!!

happyjack


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## happyjack

Well we are over the 21 day average and heading for the 150 but today is critical in as much as we have hit the 5650 barrier so this is where it has to make a decision The Macd and most other indicators say --- up 

Happyjack

for the pedants  .... I know this is an xjo chart .... the cmc charts are too difficult to manipulate on a daily basis,

Well maybe you have a chart and  maybe  you didn't,  difficult to tell with this new system


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## MoneyNeverSleeps

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



Trembling Hand said:


> No there is a spread, 2 points, but they are the prices that the trades where executed at. CFDs suck for short term trades as you have to always get over that spread then sell at market. Just to get a scratch trade you need it to go 2 points in your favour. On the Futures if you can work the spread that would of been a 2 or 3 point winner.




Hi TH, i'm still out here reading books, going to CMC seminars, getting familiar with Market Maker and more importantly learning.........I'm just wondering if "working the spread" simply means to enter/exit only trades with a favourable spread i.e. a 2 point spread etc?


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## professor_frink

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



MoneyNeverSleeps said:


> Hi TH, i'm still out here reading books, going to CMC seminars, getting familiar with Market Maker and more importantly learning.........I'm just wondering if "working the spread" simply means to enter/exit only trades with a favourable spread i.e. a 2 point spread etc?




No. He's referring to buying at the bid and selling at the ask in this instance, something you can't do with a market maker.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



professor_frink said:


> No. He's referring to buying at the bid and selling at the ask in this instance, something you can't do with a market maker.




Frink why could u not buy at the at bid and sell at the ask? the IG bid is always more then the ask. eg SELL (ASK) 6000 BUY (Bid) 6002 or am missing some thing here?


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## professor_frink

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



>Apocalypto< said:


> Frink why could u not buy at the at bid and sell at the ask? the IG bid is always more then the ask. eg SELL (ASK) 6000 BUY (Bid) 6002 or am missing some thing here?




by bid, I'm referring to the highest price someone is prepared to buy at - in your example above, the bid is 6000 and the ask is 6002.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



professor_frink said:


> by bid, I'm referring to the highest price someone is prepared to buy at - in your example above, the bid is 6000 and the ask is 6002.




ok I get u no that's not possible on a MM.

Cheers


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## MoneyNeverSleeps

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



professor_frink said:


> by bid, I'm referring to the highest price someone is prepared to buy at - in your example above, the bid is 6000 and the ask is 6002.




So I assume that the bid is not always less than the ask with non market makers; otherwise you could never lose on a trade. TH was then referring to trades where this was the case i.e. this allowed him to "Work the spread"?


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



MoneyNeverSleeps said:


> So I assume that the bid is not always less than the ask with non market makers; otherwise you could never lose on a trade. TH was then referring to trades where this was the case i.e. this allowed him to "Work the spread"?




No. The bid can never be more than the ask. This is the problem when people trade with crappy MM. they never get a sense of how the markets function. And how disadvantaged you are playing with MM CFDs & FX. 

Working the spread is putting an order to buy @ the highest Bid and joining the cue then selling at the ask once filled. something you carn't do with MM.

For example I put in a order to buy @ 6000 with the other bidders. someone sells @ market and my order gets filled I then joint the ASK sellers at 6002 to sell and get taken out as well. 2 points profit while the MM price hasn't moved.

That one is an extreme example but the most obvious one is targets. I can place a limit sell order in the SPI at 6000 and be taken out by other people buying @ market. Where with a MM you need the price to effectively trade to 6002 before you can get 6000 exit from them. They are robbing you of at least 2 points per trade.

I use to think they were a good thing to learn with but now totally against them as you are never seeing how orders work and the importance of correct order execution.


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## MoneyNeverSleeps

*Re: Trading the XJO 200*



Trembling Hand said:


> No. The bid can never be more than the ask. This is the problem when people trade with crappy MM. they never get a sense of how the markets function. And how disadvantaged you are playing with MM CFDs & FX.
> 
> Working the spread is putting an order to buy @ the highest Bid and joining the cue then selling at the ask once filled. something you carn't do with MM.
> 
> For example I put in a order to buy @ 6000 with the other bidders. someone sells @ market and my order gets filled I then joint the ASK sellers at 6002 to sell and get taken out as well. 2 points profit while the MM price hasn't moved.
> 
> That one is an extreme example but the most obvious one is targets. I can place a limit sell order in the SPI at 6000 and be taken out by other people buying @ market. Where with a MM you need the price to effectively trade to 6002 before you can get 6000 exit from them. They are robbing you of at least 2 points per trade.
> 
> I use to think they were a good thing to learn with but now totally against them as you are never seeing how orders work and the importance of correct order execution.




I see what you mean and I have been well aware of the cost of the MM 2 point spread from day 1, however I am finding that that MM's (CMC Aussie 200) are a good place to start; if nothing else, having to overcome the MM 2 point spread really helps increase focus and discipline by making a hard job even harder!


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## Wysiwyg

Two mini CFD Index long opened at 4713 points. Playing for basement around 4700 so see how it goes.


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