# ASX at bargain basement prices



## deeplode (25 October 2008)

It seems logical that if this is a once in a lifetime crash it must be also a once in a life time opportunity...so much so that Dr Shane Oliver of AMP is borrowing against his house to buy.
"This is a once in a lifetime global event....and therefore a once in a lifetime opportunity to create wealth. Don't panic. Just buy quality at dump yard prices.'

from deeplode.com


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## awg (25 October 2008)

look at stock prices between 1961 and 1974.

who says the market is at its bottom?

company profits are likely to fall.

one lesson i have learned is buying a stock on a downtrend has always been bad for me.

better (for me) to wait for some sign of an upturn

as for borrowing against the house, i wont even comment.

the trend is your friend etc etc


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## tech/a (25 October 2008)

deeplode said:


> It seems logical that if this is a once in a lifetime crash it must be also a once in a life time opportunity...so much so that Dr Shane Oliver of AMP is borrowing against his house to buy.
> "This is a once in a lifetime global event....and therefore a once in a lifetime opportunity to create wealth. Don't panic. Just buy quality at dump yard prices.'
> 
> from deeplode.com




If Oliver needs to raise cash by re mortgaging his house--!!

You would do well to Read George Soros on 2008 The New Paradigm.
I tend to take notice of Billionaires who often moved the Currency of countries by their own trading.

What if prices remain at 70%-90% off their old highs?
*What if thats where they actually should be!*


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## nunthewiser (25 October 2008)

LOL well with the amount of "bottoms" shane oliver has called since 5500 no wonder the bloke needs to mortgage his house to buy anything ..........

blessim


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## OzWaveGuy (25 October 2008)

Crazy! Buy and hold.

I wouldn't be surprised that key personalities (eg Buffet) are buying to drive confidence in the market. Suckers rally.


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## chops_a_must (25 October 2008)

OzWaveGuy said:


> Crazy! Buy and hold.
> 
> I wouldn't be surprised that key personalities (eg Buffet) are buying to drive confidence in the market. Suckers rally.




I think it's funny Buffet needed to come out in the media after he bought.

Surely he wouldn't care, and would actually be hoping for things to go down more.

I wouldn't be surprised if he was leant on to make the comments he did.


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## tech/a (25 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> I think it's funny Buffet needed to come out in the media after he bought.
> 
> Surely he wouldn't care, and would actually be hoping for things to go down more.
> 
> I wouldn't be surprised if he was leant on to make the comments he did.




God Bless America!!
The land of the Free!---Really!


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## GreatPig (25 October 2008)

tech/a said:


> The land of the Free!



That's because they've been running it all up on a tab so far!

GP


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## MRC & Co (25 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> I think it's funny Buffet needed to come out in the media after he bought.
> 
> Surely he wouldn't care, and would actually be hoping for things to go down more.
> 
> I wouldn't be surprised if he was leant on to make the comments he did.




Or his unsure.

Hence his need to talk of it.


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## chops_a_must (25 October 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Or his unsure.
> 
> Hence his need to talk of it.




Or he needed to ramp his deals in GE and GS, because he knows those companies are pretty much cactus.


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## ROE (26 October 2008)

deeplode said:


> It seems logical that if this is a once in a lifetime crash it must be also a once in a life time opportunity...so much so that Dr Shane Oliver of AMP is borrowing against his house to buy.
> "This is a once in a lifetime global event....and therefore a once in a lifetime opportunity to create wealth. Don't panic. Just buy quality at dump yard prices.'
> 
> from deeplode.com




Once again greed got to him  not content with what he has in hand
and invest what he can afford to lose.

If **** happen this is what he cant afford to lose and will be out in the street if the market depress in a pro-long period and he is out of a job, he will be out of a home and out in the street


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## ROE (26 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Or he needed to ramp his deals in GE and GS, because he knows those companies are pretty much cactus.




I wouldn't write Buffett off and If I was in the US I buy GE as well maybe not GS but GE, that is a top business.

Their GE money get a bit of bad press because of their practice but they are a conglomerate owing from jet engine to power generation to medical devices, you name it GE has it all.

GE is the only company in the world to do so well in so many industries and its previous CEO Jack Welch lay a good foundation for it.


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## Aussiest (26 October 2008)

I would say that a stock is only at a bargain basement price when the dividends you get equal or exceed the amount of interest you would have recieved on the equivilant cash. Eg, if you buy 1,000 units of X for $40.00, do the dividends you recieve equal or exceed the $2,400 you would have recieved on the yearly interest of $40,000 at 6%?

Also, you have to take into account the risk factor, so you would probably want the dividend amount to exceed $2,400, as per example above.

If company earnings go down, dividends will be less. So, is buying some of our ASX stocks really that much value right now?


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## MRC & Co (26 October 2008)

^^^^

That pretty much ignores capital depreciation/appreciation, which is where most of the money is to be made/lost.


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## Glen48 (26 October 2008)

I am sure Oliver still think the economy is strong and we won't go it to a recession, China will save us but being an economist just do the opposite and you will make a fortune. Maybe he is not sell his house the bank is because he has been using it as a ATM.


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## Indie (26 October 2008)

deeplode said:


> It seems logical that if this is a once in a lifetime crash it must be also a once in a life time opportunity...so much so that Dr Shane Oliver of AMP is borrowing against his house to buy.
> "This is a once in a lifetime global event....and therefore a once in a lifetime opportunity to create wealth. Don't panic. Just buy quality at dump yard prices.'
> 
> from deeplode.com




If you take the position that stocks were valued at fair price when we were at AORD 6500 then everything is an incredibly bargain at todays price. 90% of the clowns on Bloomberg and CNBC have been shouting "bargain" for the best part of a year now and stocks keep falling. Mind you, they all have a vested interest since they rely on the stock market machine for their livelihoods in one way or another. So they need us to participate in the market. Eventually they will be right of course, they will successfully call "the bottom" at their 100th attempt. How can so many so-called experts be paid to give so much dud advice? 

Dr Oliver is right about one thing, this is a once in a lifetime global event. However, there are always opportunities to create wealth whether stocks are going up or down.

Here's some logic for you:

What is going to happen to stock prices going forward as earnings get revised down again and again? This part of the cycle is just beginning and will take years to play out. We now have the problem of over-supply and rising inventories. The resulting lay-offs curb consumer spending in an economy which is consumer-driven. This leads to more supply glut, further cuts in production, meaning even more lay-offs. Not to mention the resulting negative impact on housing prices which have been the main driver of wealth (re: DEBT) creation in the economy for decades.

This is just how the cycle works. When we bottom out we can build again. But the bottom takes years to reach from our loft heights of debt.


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## Dowdy (26 October 2008)

We haven't reached a bottom yet. We haven't even declared a recession yet!


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## AnDy62 (26 October 2008)

Dowdy, markets are forward looking, don't think they move with the economy.
That's not to say there isn't more downside, indeed I think commodities can go lower in the near term, scary times. There are bargains out there though!


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## MS+Tradesim (26 October 2008)

tech/a said:


> You would do well to Read George Soros on 2008 The New Paradigm.
> I tend to take notice of Billionaires who often moved the Currency of countries by their own trading.




It's a good read alright. Reflects my own beliefs about the markets although I don't have his faith in China to prop up the global economy. Interesting, I was going to start a thread about this book.


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