# Rich Dad's Prophecy - Market Crash of 2016



## Uncle Festivus (9 January 2016)

In light of this weeks events, interesting reading if you haven't already read it.....Rich Dad's Prophecy - Why The Biggest Stock Market Crash In History Is Still Coming & How You Can Prepare Yourself & Profit

http://pdf.thepdfportal.net/PDFFiles/310957.pdf

A prophecy from 2002......



> This book was written (with Kiyosaki's co-author and partner, Sharon Lechter, C.P.A.) in 2002. All of the predictions made in this book are right on track - if not ahead of schedule.
> 
> The primary "prophecy" is that a MAJOR stock market upheaval is coming in 2016. This is the year when an estimated 2,282,887 "baby boomers" turn 70 - and are required BY LAW to make mandatory withdrawals from their 401 (k) accounts. In 2017, the number of people turning 70 jumps by 700,000 to 2,928,818, and keeps increasing every year thereafter.




http://www.dol.gov/ebsa/faqs/faq_consumer_pension.html



> Federal law sets a mandatory date by which you must start receiving your retirement benefits, even if you would like to wait longer. This mandatory start date generally is set to begin on April 1 following the calendar year in which you turn 70 ½ or, if later, when you retire. However, your plan may require you to begin receiving distributions even if you have not retired by age 70 ½.


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## Value Collector (9 January 2016)

Uncle Festivus said:


> In light of this weeks events, interesting reading if you haven't already read it.....Rich Dad's Prophecy - Why The Biggest Stock Market Crash In History Is Still Coming & How You Can Prepare Yourself & Profit
> 
> http://pdf.thepdfportal.net/PDFFiles/310957.pdf
> 
> ...




It's probably a bit like bible prophecy, every few years it will be dragged out as an explanation of the most recent turmoil.

I read the book in 2004, and thought the 2008 crash was the "prophecy", don't get me wrong, it's a good read and inspires thought, I jus don't think it's anything to worry about, in fact such a crash would be a welcome once in a life time opportunity, I mean who doesn't ant to buy things at half price, lol.


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## notting (9 January 2016)

That boom hasn't stopped yet but when it does add 20 years and go short then!

Its all about China.
China puts out soft numbers - Oil weakens and sovereigns are going to go bust.
Supply could be curbed to save all the contagion - that's the game.


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## skc (9 January 2016)

Uncle Festivus said:


> In light of this weeks events, interesting reading if you haven't already read it.....Rich Dad's Prophecy - Why The Biggest Stock Market Crash In History Is Still Coming & How You Can Prepare Yourself & Profit




I don't doubt that the demographic shift is a major headwind to markets in the immediate... but I don't know why it needs to cause a severe crash. The increase in pension withdrawal (and corresponding reduction in contributions) should cause a continued steady fall, but not a drastic crash. 

Unless there is some quasi financial equilibrium being violated... perhaps the book make further explanations?


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## Gringotts Bank (10 January 2016)

Kiyosaki is American.  By all reports we have a similar situation here with low superannuation contributions, increasing numbers seeking government handouts (legitimate and otherwise) and many living on an aged pension.  

But afaik it's all about sentiment.  With everyone glued to each other via the media and internet, *emergent phenomena* form extremely quickly.


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## shouldaindex (10 January 2016)

It's just pr0n for share markets.


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## skc (11 January 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Kiyosaki is American.  By all reports we have a similar situation here with low superannuation contributions, increasing numbers seeking government handouts (legitimate and otherwise) and many living on an aged pension.
> 
> But afaik it's all about sentiment.  With everyone glued to each other via the media and internet, *emergent phenomena* form extremely quickly.





Amazing video. Thanks for posting.


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## wayneL (11 January 2016)

Soros has been in the news throwing a few crumbs to the bears too.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/george-soros-sees-echoes-of-2008-crisis-20160107-gm1jgb.html


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## CanOz (11 January 2016)

Y'all wait until Germany's largest bank folds up, it's got to be weighing on the Dax....


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## explod (11 January 2016)

Aarrrrhh well,  life goes on, 

Large fire,  billowing black smoke looking west from my office here at Thomastow. 

Local radio says a pile of tyres,  started around 8am and still ging strong here at 11.20.  Will be another "fire sale" I suppose,  err did I say "tyre sale".   Wreckers up the street near to our shed cannot make sales,  factories being knocked down all around us,  in fact some of our good quality old oregon coming from these. 

Anyhow I digress a bit off topic. 

Reckon Sorros is making a bit of an understatement myself.   We have the nice GDP numbers of the US being mostly consumption,  thier unemployment numbers not including those out of work more than 12 months but.. Yeh.. Including part time jobs.   Yeeh and if you have two part time jobs its counted for statistical purposes AAASSS 2 jobs. 
My point in this paragraph is that most of the bankers,  finance industry, governments and media have been ramping for years but finally the systems can take no more.   Hitting the wall in 2016 perhaps.

So throw a bit of this into the pile of those bits from other posters this morning and it does look a bit bleak.

The Rich Dad book were great,  gave each of my elder Grandchilren a copy published for teenagers.   Half tgem soon got into property and have done well.   One a bit over committed is worried as he cannot keep tenants sufficient to meet debt sevicing.   Got them onto Rich Dad's book on gold a few years back but tgey were too absorbed in property.   Funny they did not release this book in Australia.   Someone does not seem to lije real money.


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## craft (29 January 2016)

> The primary "prophecy" is that a MAJOR stock market upheaval is coming in 2016. This is the year when an estimated 2,282,887 "baby boomers" turn 70 - and are required BY LAW to make mandatory withdrawals from their 401 (k) accounts. In 2017, the number of people turning 70 jumps by 700,000 to 2,928,818, and keeps increasing every year thereafter.




Australia has similar sort of situation with its retirement system however I think the conclusion that it will trigger a crash is a little shallow in thought process.

Yes there will be less capital looking for assets to invest in so you could expect a drift downwards in multiples paid however the conversion of what was savings into consumption will have a positive economic effect, especially in current environment where the funk is basically lack of consumptive demand with no inflation in sight.

I think the conclusion of a crash is first level thinking of what reduced demand for investment assets will cause.   I see increased real economic activity from the conversion of savings to consumption and reduced P/E multiples basically leaving price level largely unaffected in the short term whilst enhancing long term returns from being able to buy improved business cash flows for the same price. 

If the environment was labour/capital/supply constrained with inflation on move then maybe I would be a little concerned about the retirement situation (more about the reduction of labour than capital) but not in 2016 – not for Australia - More a net positive from my perspective. 

If retires on the whole are having to reduce their consumption drastically below their living standards while working because they don't have enough savings then that is more of a worry.


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## seven7 (6 February 2016)

Just supposing RK is right and their is in fact a general crash this year.  Then supposing you had a large sum to invest/protect - then how would you go about it?  Cash, Bonds, Real Estate, Term deposits??  What would work best in that type of scenario?  The scenario is a recession on a Japanese scale so what would a Japanese investor have been best served by in 1989 might be an answer to this.


Sev


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## Muschu (6 February 2016)

Anyone had a really good look at this guy's background ...?  Going back to Money and You (4 Corners expose) and further to Maharishi Mahesh Yogi....

Makes for an interesting study imo.


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## Uncle Festivus (9 February 2016)

Regardless of this particular prediction and it's outcome, there are plenty of other things that are taking markets lower, with the contagion from over-leveraged currency speculators (mostly central banks themselves these days) percolating through the system. There's also the hard landing in China, Euro banks, the US recession, etc etc

The next phase of the GFC (which didn't end, it was only mitigated by more debt) has started, and this bit will be worse.


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## Uncle Festivus (9 February 2016)

And then somebody flicked a switch and the plunge protection team got to work - well done Janet. Or, just short covering?
Either way, the usual pattern......


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## Uncle Festivus (28 March 2016)

Well that's been fun - almost picked the bottom? Markets go down on facts and up on rhetoric and money printing? Sustainable?

Sticking to his prediction though - 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ri...lapse-he-foresaw-in-2002-is-coming-2016-03-23


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## ggkfc (29 March 2016)

might not be a crash, more a cooling


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## Muschu (29 March 2016)

Robert is a prophet of experience and, coincidentally, wealth.  

Like skilled prophets before him he will have "an explanation"  at the ready should his prophecy not eventuate to the full. 

How comforting to know that he supports Trump as well:

http://www.azcentral.com/story/mone...yosaki-rich-dad-author-donald-trump/32371265/


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## ggkfc (29 March 2016)

he's been spruiking his hold silver stuff for yonks..!


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## Muschu (29 March 2016)

What a "character"

http://thecollegeinvestor.com/4726/ultimate-hypocrite-robert-kiyosaki-companys-bankruptcy/


http://www.cafepress.com/+robert-kiyosaki+gifts


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## get better (29 March 2016)

The very first book I read about investing was from Rich Dad, Poor Dad. The one concept I learnt from it was the four quadrants - it made a lot of intuitive sense to me.

Then I read one of his other books. It was pretty much identical to the first book I read. Same with the third book.

Then I realised this guy was a one trick pony. His four quadrants definitely work - but his real wealth comes from his book selling business (but his real estate investments are nothing to sneeze about).

But like with all commentators out there, I'd be careful about trusting anything anyone says. Even the smartest people in the world can't predict when a crash is going to be. And like Muschu said, they would just come up with an explanation on why they were wrong or re-forecast the crash date without a hiccup. That's where they earn the real $$$.


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## Uncle Festivus (30 March 2016)

Yes, he probably is a one trick pony, but his 'trick' looks to be one of many things lining up in 2016 which could cause major imbalances ie Japan starts to run out of internal savings, which has largely funded many stock markets and carry trades for many years now?

This bull is now running on central banker fumes and nothing else.......


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## ggkfc (30 March 2016)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, he probably is a one trick pony, but his 'trick' looks to be one of many things lining up in 2016 which could cause major imbalances ie Japan starts to run out of internal savings, which has largely funded many stock markets and carry trades for many years now?
> 
> This bull is now running on central banker fumes and nothing else.......




the most important trick is figuring when the music stops.. and finding a chair


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## explod (7 July 2016)

CanOz said:


> Y'all wait until Germany's largest bank folds up, it's got to be weighing on the Dax....




Yep,  right about now and as you intimate the dominies will start to fall. 

News today on Zero Hedge discusses Deutscher Banks $75 trillion in derivatives 20 times bigger than Germanies GDP and five times greater than the entire output of the Eurozone.  And its just worthless (not even paper) air? Space? nought. :1zhelp:

So stand back for a bit of a thud in my view.


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## Wysiwyg (7 July 2016)

explod said:


> Yep,  right about now and as you intimate the dominies will start to fall.
> 
> News today on Zero Hedge discusses Deutscher Banks $75 trillion in derivatives 20 times bigger than Germanies GDP and five times greater than the entire output of the Eurozone.  And its just worthless (not even paper) air? Space? nought. :1zhelp:
> 
> So stand back for a bit of a thud in my view.



I would be scared if anyone else posted that "old" news. 



> 'Rock solid'
> 
> There are two people standing in the way of Deutsche Bank and panic. The first is the current chief executive John Cryan. He is no swashbuckling Fred Goodwin (RBS) or Bob Diamond (Barclays) of pre-crisis notoriety. He is a very conservative, feet on the ground pragmatist. He's already managed to reduce the debt of the bank and has plans to do more.
> 
> ...


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## sptrawler (7 July 2016)

explod said:


> Yep,  right about now and as you intimate the dominies will start to fall.
> 
> News today on Zero Hedge discusses Deutscher Banks $75 trillion in derivatives 20 times bigger than Germanies GDP and five times greater than the entire output of the Eurozone.  And its just worthless (not even paper) air? Space? nought. :1zhelp:
> 
> So stand back for a bit of a thud in my view.




Add to that our banks are on negative outlook.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...-outlook-cut-to-negative-20160707-gq0toh.html

Add to that Labor and Hanson,want a royal commission into banks, have things ever looked worse.OMG

It sounds worse than climate change, which is a welcome relief, IMO, because it is bloody freezing here in Perth.

Actually getting back to the banks, it would be laugh, if they found credit card charges are too high.
Therefore banks have to pass on the costs to homeloans, because they have to meet there basil obligations and the money has to come from somewhere.lol

Well make them cut their dividend everyone says, so they do , their price drops their credit rating drops further.
The mum and Dad investors are now on pensions because their assett base and income has dropped.
Geez everything is sweet.
No matter how you look at it, be it BHP or CBA or TLS they all have massive reprocusions.


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