# NXS - Nexus Energy



## Bonk

NXS ......could be about to make deal over a well in VIC/P56 with the aggressive APACHE . Holding 27c and could run strong . Drilling not far off now in Oct05 in VIC/P54 with the apaches .


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## Bonk

*Re: NXS........AUSTRALIA"S HARDMAN O/Shore*

==>date drawing closer for the drilling .........I work it out to be approx 26/10/04 spud for the offshore Longtom well. Now that is not putting the head on the chopping block ? This could eventually be a 10 bagger !


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## HELLAS09

*NEXUS ENERGY LIMITED (NXS)*

Hi guys,

I am only new to this forum and this is my first post, so yayyy 

Has anyone heard much about NXS (Nexus Energy).  At the moment they are in a takeover bid and trading halt since late last week until tomorrow.

I was told about this company when they where like high 20 cents now they are early 70 cents, I finally bought in at 57.5 cents.

Any comments greatly appreciated....thanks.


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## yogi-in-oz

Hi folks,

NXS ..... technically, looking good and a break over 77 cents
should hopefully bring some new players in from the sidelines (???)

Some key dates ahead for NXS, with an underlying positive
tone, until around 23102006 (???)

     26092006 ..... significant news here???

     11102006 ..... aggressive rally???

  13-16102006 ..... positive spotlight on NXS ... looks big ... 

  20-23102006 ..... minor news

happy days

  yogi



=====


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## michael_selway

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> NXS ..... technically, looking good and a break over 77 cents
> should hopefully bring some new players in from the sidelines (???)
> 
> Some key dates ahead for NXS, with an underlying positive
> tone, until around 23102006 (???)
> 
> 26092006 ..... significant news here???
> 
> 11102006 ..... aggressive rally???
> 
> 13-16102006 ..... positive spotlight on NXS ... looks big ...
> 
> 20-23102006 ..... minor news
> 
> happy days
> 
> yogi
> 
> 
> 
> =====




will AZA takover NXS in a 2nd attempt?

thx

MS


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## michael_selway

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> NXS ..... technically, looking good and a break over 77 cents
> should hopefully bring some new players in from the sidelines (???)
> 
> Some key dates ahead for NXS, with an underlying positive
> tone, until around 23102006 (???)
> 
> 26092006 ..... significant news here???
> 
> 11102006 ..... aggressive rally???
> 
> 13-16102006 ..... positive spotlight on NXS ... looks big ...
> 
> 20-23102006 ..... minor news
> 
> happy days
> 
> yogi
> 
> 
> 
> =====




any other new readings on NXS or AZA yogi?   

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -1.5 -0.9 -1.9 13.1 
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 


thx

MS


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## imajica

Stockbroker Research Report - very enlightening

potential value is huge 

bargain basement at these prices

intos/funds buying in heavily

consolidating at the moment before the next significant move up


http://www.nexusenergy.com.au/upload/412_27x09x200635733PM.pdf


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## imajica

Excerpt from Nexus Energy Open Briefing



> corporatefile.com.au
> 
> In summary, what are the priorities for Nexus over the next twelve months and  how do you deliver shareholder value?
> 
> MD Ian Tchacos
> 
> The 100 million barrels of oil equivalent resources that we currently have in Longtom and Crux is valued around US$2 per barrel and that doesn't include any  value for Echuca Shoals.  These resources are likely to be valued at around US$20/bbl - $ 40/bbl once they are in the reserve category.  Just by basically bringing those two assets into production we can offer our shareholders a ten to  twenty fold increase in value. It's pretty clear, just with Longtom and Crux, that  there is a huge opportunity to deliver shareholder value and if you add Echuca to  the equation, Nexus becomes something truly exceptional in terms of leverage to  future growth.
> 
> Our goal is for Nexus, in three years, to be one of the top five oil and gas companies in Australia, that's our goal and we think we've got the assets to do it.


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## Sean K

Holy cow! First time I've really looked at this. 

What's the average entry price guys? Well done!!!


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## imajica

I got in a bit late at 97c - loaded up on these. Fundamentals and management are top notch - solid medium to long term investment.


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## imajica

Mathews Capital Partners have become new "substantial holder" with just over 20 million shares purchased between March and October.

official notification of quality insto buying

interesting to note:

Its Sabre fund won the Best International Fund at the Asia Hedge Awards in oct 2005 and won the Best Single Strategy Directional Fund at the 2005 Hedge Fund Rocks Awards and Bloomberg ranked its Sabre Fund as best performing non-U.S. equity strategies hedge fund worldwide over 1 year and 3 years to July 2005


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## imajica

Echuca Shoals has the potential to contain upto 10 TCF of gas and 300 million barrels of condensate.

Condensate sells at a premium to crude oil at over $70 a barrel at the moment.

Potential value of Echuca = over $20 billion for the liquids and a sizeable sum for the gas.

Crux and LongTom are also worth a few billion to Nexus.

Risk is quickly diminishing for this one = massive upside.

cheers


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## imajica

rallied to $1.32 on Friday

very bullish at the moment - 2007 will be a big year for NXS 


charging towards $2


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## michael_selway

imajica said:
			
		

> rallied to $1.32 on Friday
> 
> very bullish at the moment - 2007 will be a big year for NXS
> 
> 
> charging towards $2




do u reckon AZA and NXS should merge?

thx

MS


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## maverick11

I sold out the other day expecting them to drop back and buy back in... damn was I wrong!  Up 100% in a couple months!!  Still massive upside too.


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## Ken

NXS down to $1.20 wheres the support going to be for this one....

Around $1?

Or is this a temporary sell off?

Like AED when it went from $3.50 to $2.82 and is now $4.


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## Ken

Anyone noticed todays announcements?

The change in directors interest.

Aren't they dated for months ago...

Either way they own a fair few shares and options.


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## Ken

lol

I jumped off OSH yesterday at 3.34 for nexus....

Nexus up 10 cents for me now....

Gut says hold Nexus.


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## Ken

Maverick.

How much further can it go do you think.

Price target is $1.50 its already touched that.

Wasn't nexus a take over target at some point?


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## blues

Article in the AFR today that Santos might be interested especially after missing out on QGC. The article suggest that Anzon might be looking to offload its 17.7% stake which make reflect the weaker share price.

Cheers.


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## Ken

Is early 2007 important times for Nexus?

Is it pure takeover speculation that has driven share price?

Or the fundamentals of the business changed?

Was 3 cents a share 5 years ago yeah?  Pretty impressive returns if you got on early doors.


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## benwex

Should be an important day for the SP after yesterdays burn.

Always a little concerned when you have company who has deversified from IT to Oil and Gas...


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## j4mesa

Apparently it goes up to 1.045 up 14.84% ......
In my commsec, it goes into major buying.


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## benwex

What's that about?????

Benwex


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## Ken

NXS a buy again?

AED did this from $3.50 to $2.80 now $4.70

Buying opportunity.

What are the fundamentals like for NXS?

How bad are these reports?

Over reaction by market?


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## Moneybags

Ok, nxs seems to have found support around 85 - 86c range ( previous resistance ) based on 12mth chart ( sorry can't post ) and with the price of oil moving now would anyone care to comment on this stocks chances of heading in the right direction.

I don't hold

MB


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## nomore4s

Technically it's still looking pretty sick on both the weekly & daily charts imo.
About the only thing showing any signs of life is the MACD. Would need to consolidate at this level for a while longer.


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## Moneybags

Cheers for that nomore4's...........kind of confirms what I was thinking.

MB


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## redandgreen

Looks as if this one is finally on an upward trajectory despite the recent placement.


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## chance fate

I'm dead keen on Nexus' prospects come June when Echuca Shoals gets drilled....   that's a significant appraisal programme on a major discovery (thanks woodside).. with Shell financial and technical involvement that's a real good sign....  on the Shell side seems they're unhappy with nexus near insolvency on Crux.....  reckon there could be more farm-in activity closer the E Shoals drill date.... so could dampen the nexus SP appreciation on nexus


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## Knobby22

chance fate said:


> I'm dead keen on Nexus' prospects come June when Echuca Shoals gets drilled....   that's a significant appraisal programme on a major discovery (thanks woodside).. with Shell financial and technical involvement that's a real good sign....  on the Shell side seems they're unhappy with nexus near insolvency on Crux.....  reckon there could be more farm-in activity closer the E Shoals drill date.... so could dampen the nexus SP appreciation on nexus




What do you mean? The crux field was within the range, Unfortunately at the lower end. What near insolvency?


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## chance fate

nexus had to raise capital to complete the Crux side track....  the bank account was empty...


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## b4subi05

Seems like there are a few getting on this one for the ride. Been holding this one for about 8 months now and seems be paying dividends now. DB & ML maintaining a buy on this one.


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## jman2007

b4subi05 said:


> Seems like there are a few getting on this one for the ride. Been holding this one for about 8 months now and seems be paying dividends now. DB & ML maintaining a buy on this one.




Looks like it's on, massive increase in trading volume over past few days,from 800,000 to 8.5M today.  Tomorrow should be interesting, NXS an interesting opportunity in my view, although some of the sudden sp fluctuations in the chart might worry some people.


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## nizar

Great breakout.
I missed it though.

But i will wait for the trade to come to me 

I think it will at least re-test that gap from 1.44-1.49 and confirm it as a support before moving higher.

Thoughts??


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## Sean K

nizar said:


> Great breakout.
> I missed it though.
> 
> But i will wait for the trade to come to me
> 
> I think it will at least re-test that gap from 1.44-1.49 and confirm it as a support before moving higher.
> 
> Thoughts??



I agree. _Probably _come back to very significant support between 1.40-1.50. However, this crazy O&G market is pumping. That's not to say that a correction in POO is due.....Damn, on the bloody fence again. :


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## b4subi05

Interestin SP movement, seems to be holding above $1.60. Seems like the market is happy to value the Longtom Project @ $1 p/s. My understanding is that anything above $1 is the market showing confident in Crux Project. Echuca Shoals hasnt been factored in to SP as yet. Big fan of this stock and planning to hold onto it untill at least 2009.


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## EZZA

b4subi05 said:


> Interestin SP movement, seems to be holding above $1.60. Seems like the market is happy to value the Longtom Project @ $1 p/s. My understanding is that anything above $1 is the market showing confident in Crux Project. Echuca Shoals hasnt been factored in to SP as yet. Big fan of this stock and planning to hold onto it untill at least 2009.




i'm with you mate, will be holding on to this one for a while,  been holding it for about a year and a half. got a parcel at new shares offered at 0.80.
will be holding on until production and will be expecting echuca schoals drilling results to have upside potential.  will be expecting some consolidation in the near term has been a stella run in recent weeks.

been a bit of talk about aed, anyone with thoughts on aed in comparison to who has more potential for growth, heard a lot of good things about this one.
not sure if i'll top up on this one after drilling results or possibly go into aed.


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## chance fate

..does anyone believe that shell would be in this if they didn't have very high confidence that this well would be successful??  shell is always very conservative..   so IMO there is a better than 80% chance that this will be better than the lower end outcome....   >$3.00 here we come....


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## greenfs

Here is a copy of a Baillieu report supplied by my broker, who is telling me that the imminent drill will see sp move to $2.25 if successful or temporarily back to $1.30 if not.


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## golfmos123

Thanks for the briefing note.  It does make a good read and highlights how far NXS has come in a pretty short time.  I am really surprised that this particular forum isn't a lot larger than it is considering the rapid SP rise.  I've been in this one since the 80c days, sitting on some nice $$.

I'm not so sure that the SP will fall that far on a bad drilling report.  We still have the cash to come in from the Longtom development pretty soon which will help stabilise things too (a little while away I appreciate), but the company is sitting on some good size deposits and appears to have the partners with deep enough pockets to help get it out.

I intend holding this one right through to production.  I still think there are large gains to be made even at current prices.


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## greenfs

This share is featured by Garimpiero in Monday's Age (03/09/2007) and will therefore take off today, especially given the US results on Friday and the very imminent drill results in the next few days.

In addition, I note that Comm Sec Private Advisory is recommending a buy at the current sp. Sadly, I am not yet a holder in this stock, but I will be before the day is out. The undermentioned chart surely indicates that sp should achieve $2+ sooner rather than later:


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## golfmos123

Greenfs,

You were right about it going up today, raced up to 187 early but looks like settling back a little now.  Plenty of good news yet to come for NXS, my broker still has it as a buy as well even at prices above 178.5 (last week's close).  Should be a good ride for the next 12 months or so...


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## b4subi05

Not a very encouraging announcement after the close today. I wonder how the market will react. I hope its not as bad as the last plunge from 1.30 to 90c.


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## EZZA

gees guys,

nxs dropped off heaps today, was the market already factoring in massive gas reserves to be found.  Hope it is still a pretty good buy, picked more up at 1.35 today.  hopefully more drilling brings on more positive results.


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## greenfs

The reason the sp dropped today is that I bought some yesterday (lol). The real reason isue to the disappointing drill result announced after COB yesterday. $1.35 should become the base with another gradual rise from ther going forward.


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## golfmos123

Ouch!!

Fossetmaker-1 well gave a disappointing result but I don't understand the market slamming the SP so hard.  This well was to try to expand the existing Echuca Shoals reserve (NXS has 66% stake, the rest with Shell) and surely wasn't already fully factored into the SP??  Yet the stock got slaughtered today with the poor well result.

Couldn't help but notice the company was quick to put out a positive result regarding the Longtom field for which NXS has 100% stake.  But it didn't do much to underpin the SP.

Hopefully we will see a recovery of sorts when the Crux resource estimates are released late this month.


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## EZZA

Fair enough guys,

So the result was not that great.  So you guys reckon nxs, has been punished unfairly, as the well wasn't factored in that much.   Hope this is the case, if so then should be a good opp to buy in.

Anyway, i'm been holding this for a while.  Just treated this as a buying opp and bought more.  topped up another 4k, currently holding 13k worth. Hope Echuca Schoals, lives up to expectation if so, we should be able to pocket some nice profits.

There's a broker report that has a 4.00 price target on the stock on the nxs website,  you guys reckon this is realistic?

Don't normally see reponses so promptly, good to see some interest here.

cheers guys.


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## golfmos123

Thanks Ezza,

Nice to see some activity in this thread.  Struggling to see why it has been so quiet given the positive results NXS has achieved quite quickly and with the large SP rise over the past 6 mths.  I am holding a reasonable no of these (25k shares) and as I've said before have been in since the price was in the high 70s, early 80s.  

Still believe that the SP has been unfairly hit with the bad news on the last drill.  As has been said already tonight, there is very strong support around the 135 mark and I'd expect to see some consolidation before the SP starts rising slowly again.  Positive results on Crux at the end of Sept would provide the basis to recover much of today's losses I'd guess.

If you have a look at their website and the presentation in the ann today, they have a number of strong plans that are all approaching production, plenty of cash in the bank to develop them further, and some very strong partners who are keen (Shell, Santos and the Japanese gas company whose name escapes me for now).

I don't know about a $4 target anytime in a hurry but it wouldn't at all surprise me to see it rise a long long way from where it is now (130-140) upon a few positive announcements on the Crux and Longtom projects over the next 6-12 months.  I don't plan on any exits until we are well over the $2-2.20 mark which won't be that far away I'm hoping.

Please DYOR though.......


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## greenfs

View attachment Nexus Briefing 20070331.pdf


Please consider the above initial brief from Baillieu. Also, the following note issued by Baillieu representative Campbell Thompson on 31/08/2007 is provided:

Nexus has released its latest weekly drilling report, showing that the Fossetmarket-1 well in the Echuca Shoals gas/condensate field was still drilling ahead at 3490 metres true vertical depth.  The well has a target depth of 3,800 metres and at the current depth should be drilling through the 200-metre “zone of interest” today or tomorrow. Nexus needs to find a gas pay zone of 20-30 metres thickness for the field to be proven commercial beyond doubt and we may not hear the results of the well until next Tuesday.  The central well in the field produced 200 metres of gas-bearing sands with very high levels of condensate (100 barrels per million cubic feet).  Fossetmaker-1 is being drilled 7 kilometres to the North-East of the Echuca Shoals-1 discovery well. We see downside of 35-30 cents if this well is a duster but see upside to $2.50 if the pay zone is greater than 50 metres and condensate ratios are confirmed.


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## EZZA

I know nexus has longtom and crux, reserves.  

How much of the current share price is factoring in success of the echuca schoals field?

there a lot of talk about the echuca field hosting massive reserves.  I think the market has been spooked by the fosseltaker well being located not too far from echuca s, not hosting promising reserves.  

i guess it'll be hard to make any judgement until the echuca s wells are drilled.

does anyone have any valuation on nexus purely based on the longtom and crux fields alone? just curious to find out the base base of the company, without echuca.

anyway, i see support at 1.28. hope to see some consolidation soon.


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## greenfs

The following extract from a Baillieu Report issued by Campbell Thompson pre the bad news yesterday is provided:

Nexus Energy – Sensitivity to Fossetmaker -1 Well

Emerging oil and gas producer Nexus Energy has announced that the Fossetmaker-1 well has spudded in the Echuca Shoals permit in the offshore Browse Basin West Australia.  The Echuca Shoals field is a potentially large gas-condensate play and if the Fosstemaker well is successful it would take Nexus shares to a new level.  We have revised our NXS share price sensitivities with two scenarios – pessimistic and optimistic – to predict the medium- term impact of the well on the company’s valuation.  Failure of the well to produce commercial gas flows or lacklustre condensate levels would risk 20-25 cents of downside to the share price in the short term.


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## EZZA

greenfs said:


> The following extract from a Baillieu Report issued by Campbell Thompson pre the bad news yesterday is provided:
> 
> Nexus Energy – Sensitivity to Fossetmaker -1 Well
> 
> Emerging oil and gas producer Nexus Energy has announced that the Fossetmaker-1 well has spudded in the Echuca Shoals permit in the offshore Browse Basin West Australia.  The Echuca Shoals field is a potentially large gas-condensate play and if the Fosstemaker well is successful it would take Nexus shares to a new level.  We have revised our NXS share price sensitivities with two scenarios – pessimistic and optimistic – to predict the medium- term impact of the well on the company’s valuation.  Failure of the well to produce commercial gas flows or lacklustre condensate levels would risk 20-25 cents of downside to the share price in the short term.





Interesting, thanks for the post. 

This would have been handy pre announcement, dropped off a little more than 20 25c, maybe will see a little bit of a recovery in the short term.


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## EZZA

interesting to c nxs play pac man on anzon, once the hunted now the hunter.
buying strategic stake in aza.

is 13% enough of a stake to block the other competition namely origin, awe, agl.  

i hope nxs can pull this one off, long way to go yet.  this takeover would be advantageous for nxs, acquiring a producer until they start producing there on fields in a yrs time.  Very interesting, also putting less pressure on echuca schoals expectations, acquiring aza assets.

anyone still in this one?


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## jope

Yeah, i bought more about  3  or 4 weeks ago.
I've always considered them a good long term investment.

I hope they succeed with take-over of Anzon.


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## golfmos123

Yes still here EZZA,

Nice recovery in SP of late but some way still to go before we get back to where we were.  I am still of the view that there is good value in holding through closer to production for their own fields.  Haven't sold anything down yet and have been holding since the 80-90c days.  Latest announcement just gives more confidence to hold I think.  An interesting move....


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## golfmos123

NXS sliding a little after the announcement.  Perhaps not too surprising..

The move for Anzon seems to be protecting the 12% or so NXS has held in it since the unsuccessful takeover in 2006.  This move is probably because Anzon has indicated that the company could be for sale so NXS has taken defensive action.  Sadly, this does tie up some cash that I'd rather see used to fund the NXS drill program over the next 18 months which is fairly busy.

Waiting to hear from Santos as to whether they want to own 35% of the Longtom venture (currently 100% NXS).  They have 80 days to decide from early Sept and the buyin price is between $2-3M per percentage point - ie 35% will cost them between $70-105M.  Another well will be done there in 2Q 2008 and NXS still believe gas production is achievable in 3Q 2008.  I'd guess if Santos come on board, then we should see some further action in SP as it will vindicate the Longtom field.

With FID on the Crux field in 2Q 2008 as well (more wells due there in early 2008), there will be some interesting times ahead for NXS I think....

Will continue to hold my shares in this one for now....


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## FUTUREFUND

Are any of the Nexus followers, long term holders? If so what are your thoughts on the quality of management and their performance and choice of projects. 

I have just read an article which makes a comparison to WPL 25 years ago ! They seem worth investigating.


Thanks in advance.

FUTURE FOR NXS ?


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## Trader Paul

Hi folks,

NXS ... positive cycle coming into play 15102007 = more good news ??? ..... 

have a great weekend

paul



=====


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## EZZA

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> NXS ... positive cycle coming into play 15102007 = more good news ??? .....
> 
> have a great weekend
> 
> paul
> 
> 
> 
> =====




hi trader paul

why the positive cycle, is it because this time last year nxs was surging?

cheers
Ezz


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## greenfs

View attachment Nexus Briefing 20071016.pdf


For existing holders and potential investors in this stock, this is a must read ann by the company today. It includes an interview of MD Ian Tcahacos which proved very enlightening.

IMHO the sp has a long way to go in an upwards direction although time will be required


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## jman2007

greenfs said:


> View attachment 14202
> 
> 
> For existing holders and potential investors in this stock, this is a must read ann by the company today. It includes an interview of MD Ian Tcahacos which proved very enlightening.
> 
> IMHO the sp has a long way to go in an upwards direction although time will be required




Agreed,

It was quite an enlightening interview with some searching questions re Nexus's Corporate strategy.  IMO this stock provides a good potential long-term hold considering that the sp may not reflect the true value of the company until the Crux and Longtom projects come online.

Cheers
jman2007


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## Trader Paul

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> NXS ... positive cycle coming into play 15102007 = more good news ??? .....
> 
> have a great weekend
> 
> paul
> 
> 
> 
> =====







Hi folks,

NXS ... positive news comes in, right on time ... 

have a great day

  paul



=====


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## EZZA

very nice, only stock up in my small portfolio today.  
finished in the positive, solid long term hold for me.:karate:


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## EZZA

just on abc business sunday, nexus biggest mover of the week. up from memory about 16%.  Well done to all nxs holders.

Been reading in the fin review some of the other potential takeover predators for anzon have been losing interest.  Looks like nxs it gaining momentum in a merger deal.


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## pajm

I was also reading in fin. review ezza about merger talks and possiblity of three way merger b/w ann, NXS and ARQ -Ii have had ARQ for sometime and SP has been disappointing for a couple years, so I hope they are part of the action. Have held NXS since Aug. 2004 and have been my best performing stock.


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## EZZA

yeah, can see the in announcements aza talking to arq about merger.

i'm not holding arq was hoping nxs deal would go through.  anyway, nxs have 20% of aza and should hopefully make some gains as they are majority holder of the stock.

nxs holding pretty strong on a down day. 1.60


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## EZZA

hey guys, 

anyone have any thoughts on how the merger stuff with arc and aza will affect nxs sp?  

over and out


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## pajm

Not too sure what will happen with nxs sp with arc and aza getting it together. However, going by article in f/review today, seems there is still an option for nxs and merged arc and aza to come together at some point.


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## greenfs

You gotta be happy about the latest announcement today, which starts as follows and the full Report has been attached....

First Crux Reserves Booked Doubles Nexus’ Reserves to 114 Million Barrels

56.4 MMSTB OF CRUX LIQUIDS PROJECT RESERVES (P50) BOOKED AHEAD OF FINAL INVESTMENT DECISION

NEXUS IS NOW AUSTRALIA’S FOURTH LARGEST HOLDER OF LIQUID HYDROCARBON RESERVES AND THE SEVENTH LARGEST HOLDER OF HYDROCARBON RESERVES

INDEPENDENTLY ASSESSED (P90) RESOURCE ESTIMATES FOR CRUX LIQUIDS PROJECT RISE BY 22%

THREE WELL DRILLING PROGRAM CONFIRMED TO ASSESS POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GREATER CRUX AREA RESOURCES COMMENCING DECEMBER 2007

Nexus Energy Limited (“Nexus”) books substantially increased oil and gas reserves after independent expert, Gaffney Cline and Associates (“GCA”) confirmed a best estimate (P50) contingent resource of 66.3 million barrels (MMstb) in the Crux field within exploration permit AC/P23.

The low case contingent resource estimate (P90) for the Crux field has been confirmed by GCA at 54.9 MMstb of condensate liquids, an increase of 22% from the 45 MMstb previously reported by Nexus.

This increase of the low case contingent resource estimate (P90) substantially boosts the commercial value of, and the ability to procure project finance for the Crux liquids project. It follows the drilling of the Crux-2 and Crux-2 ST1 wells earlier this year.

The resource estimates are sufficient to support the commercial development of the Crux liquids project. Accordingly, the board of Nexus has booked 56.4 MMstb of proven plus probable (P50) liquid reserves attributable to the Crux liquids project, being its 85% share.

Nexus’ total P50 reserves are now at 114 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe), of which 52% is liquids, taking account of the reserves already booked at the Longtom field in Bass Strait.

Nexus has also undertaken significant geotechnical work to determine the hydrocarbon potential of the greater Crux area. Nexus estimates the total potential of the Crux field in AC/P23, near field prospects adjacent to Crux in AC/P23 and in the surrounding AC/P41 permit, is greater than 5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas and 200 MMstb of condensate. A detailed breakdown of this potential is shown in the background section of this release.

This is the first of a five page pdf, which has been attached.

View attachment Nexus Briefing 20071026.pdf


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## coppo

Glad I held this one. Nearly got rid rid of it a few weeks back on the back of ordinary drilling results.
Could top $2 in the next few weeks IMO.


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## roland

Wow, check out the order on NXS at close, 2,700,00 at $1.83 - glad I got in today at $1.66    ....................


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## roland

Well, of course it looked better than what is actually turned out on close. Still - up 3.5% aint bad .......................


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## pajm

I got on nxs in 2004 purely on the basis of CBA being a shareholder........ what a ride. Sold some in the early days not knowing what to expect but the journey revealed they have obviously got a really good management team (incl., I think, ex BHP) and have not sold since. Where they finish-up is going to be interesting. Just when you think they may stall, they keep pushing on.


----------



## coppo

roland said:


> Wow, check out the order on NXS at close, 2,700,00 at $1.83 - glad I got in today at $1.66    ....................




Pardon my being a newbie. But where do you see the orders?
I use commsec and the asx. Is it somewhere else?


----------



## roland

coppo said:


> Pardon my being a newbie. But where do you see the orders?
> I use commsec and the asx. Is it somewhere else?




hi coppo, you can see the orders in the "depth" view from both the Comsec website and also in thier ProTrader software.


----------



## roland

Not sure if anyone else is on this stock, but they were up 3% today. I picked them up whilst looking for a home for my ZFX dollars after I sold.
The Aegis consensus has just listed NXS on it's top buy list.

Todays quarterly report highlights the following:

During quarter commencing 1 July 2007
• Viking Shipping Limited placement completed in July 2007 raising A$93 million. FPSO availability secured.
• Nexus and Shell finalise Echuca Shoals farm-in prior to the commencement of drilling of Fossetmaker-1 in August 2007.
• Awarding of Production Licence for Longtom gas project in September 2007.
• Sale of 15% of Crux project to Osaka Gas for A$75 million completed in September 2007.
After 30 September 2007
• Independent expert Gaffney Cline & Associates, confirm a best estimate (P50) contingent resource of 66.3 million barrels in the Crux field in October 2007.
• Crux field reserves booked in October 2007 ahead of Final Investment Decision.
• Acquisition of a 17.8% stake in Anzon Australia Limited.
• Finalisation of A$60 million corporate facility with Bank of Scotland International.

They have just posted their investor presentation and in my opinion worth having a look at.

EPS has just gone positive.

Would love to see a chart from one of our friendly ASF chartists.


----------



## Col Lector

Gidday RolandI'm a happy NXS holder. I was raving on a couple of days ago about a NXS/BPT alliance being a great match. 
In particular major synergies exist in their Gippsland Basin  projects. BPT has BMG producing and is expecting major extensional finds to the considerable reserves there. NXS holds 80% interest in 2351km² VIC/P49 which is adjacent/overlapping BMG! Also hold interests in P54 & P56 in the near vicinity. Hence why NXS were chasing Anzon, whose only project is BMG.
Noticed that shareholder dissent may roll the Anzon/ARQ merger. If Anzon comes back into play I would like to see the rosy scenario where NXS & BPT merge, and takeout AZA....share the spoils


----------



## roland

Hi Col Lector - I hold both BPT and now NXS, I wasn't aware of a merger deal between the 2. It's hard to justify chasing oilers without having some producers in your portfolio as well. BPT's SP is a bit lame at the moment and many are expecting a weakening in price, hard to see where this sentiment comes from, I don't think it was the Santos pull out, otherwise the SP price would have dipped on the announcement, and it didn't. The $0.01 dividend is immaterial, so that's not it, maybe it's all the chartists showing BPT at the top of the tree holding at support highs expecting a fall - who knows.

On the other hand, it's all go for NXS, their circumstances have changed quite dramatically and it should be all up from here. NXS is very bouyant and quite fun to trade - good swings through the day keeps the heart beating.


----------



## pajm

Hi Guys - As mentioned in my previous thread I have held nxs since 2004 and have had a good journey. Revised Crux estimate sounds excellent. Believe media and market were too quick to react on previous drill results. Read in f/review today that one of the arq shareholders wants to block merger with aza, so will be interesting to see what happens. I also hold awe, who were apparently one of the contenders to merge with aza. Any thoughts on whether you think awe might get it together with another party? ?nxs


----------



## Col Lector

NXS/BPT tie-up just a figment of my imagination....for now. But the Gippsland synergies between BPT's BMG and NXS PL49 alone are striking. NXS recognised this....hence keeness to "takeover" BPT's BMG partner...AZA.
BPT, in 2 v. recent releases BPT hints strongly that some major expansion plans are imminent. They are obviously very aware what AZA is worth....moreso than any other party.
BPT is also undertaking a major drilling program in the Bass Basin 2008....would be good to see NXS (and their strategic contacts) involved there.


----------



## pajm

Be interesting Col Lector to see what options nxs is thinking about re: meger b/w aza and arq due to their stake in aza and perhaps whether they can come up with a better offer than arq? Basically Ian Tachos has said they did not take a stake in aza for nothing.


----------



## Col Lector

Gidday Pajm.. 
NXS's focus on AZA has to be considered from the perspective that AZA is really a sole-asset company....BMG. 
Synergies exist on both sides for both BPT & NXS, potentially major, if BMG & PL49 are combined (and additionally funded/equipped via existing Viking & Japanese partners).
Is there any benefit for either BPT or NXS if ARQ beomes involved?? Nup.
Will this prevent these synergies being realised? Very possibly.
Maybe this is enough that  BPT & NXS will ensure that the ARQ play fails.

Holding both


----------



## b4subi05

Day all,
I've been holding NXS and BPT for about a year each...all this talk about consolidation is kinda interesting but highly speculative. The only thing that I'm quietly confident about is the ARQ/AZA merger not going ahead...Should this occur, I think NXS or other may swoop...There is a lot to play out here and may take a good 6 months before any real action takes place.


----------



## Col Lector

mmmm "speculation"....
any thoughts....speculation encouraged....as to what BPT's imminent & major expansion plans may be???
Definitely worth fully reading BPT's media release & Chairmans/Director's reports in Ann Report. These are blatant hints. Somethings being cooked up...& its sizeable!


----------



## pajm

Hi B4....and Col....,

Certainly will be interesting how it all plays out. Thought that nxs might be able to block merger with its stake in aza, however, if I have read things correctly, aza British arm will seal merger for arq.  So, not really sure. I have had arq for a few years result of arq's takeover of Voyager and sp has been south since, so have been really disappointing. Cannot work out arq in terms of what has seemed a good program and management that has not been reflected in sp. Anyhow, glad i have had nxs and hoping that whatever happens something better can come of arq. Nxs have a big whiff of growth about them.


----------



## pajm

Sounds good col... Speculation.......BPT/NXS/AZA/merger? or what about Santos having a ping at NXS? given there is already an agreement in place with nxs to sell Longtom gas to them


----------



## Col Lector

Its all too much!!  Got to depart to the refuge of a few zzz's....try and shut that myriad of scenarios out....for a couple of hours anyway.
Night chaps...


----------



## b4subi05

something could be brewing...a BPT/NXS merger? who knows...I read the BPT Annual report (well the main parts anyway) and there are a few hints in the address about expansion...can't do more than speculate at this point in time.


----------



## pajm

Hi B4....don't hold bpt myself but going by what what I have read about them seem to have performed well and merger with nxs may be good fit - both have performed well over recent times. Good avenue if nxs unable to enter assets via aza.


----------



## pajm

Nice going by nxs today guys, particularly in view of market having a good fall. giddy up boy.....................


----------



## pajm

Nice lift back with sp yesterday on back of good news with Crux - looking good. Anyone got some news/thoughts.........................


----------



## jman2007

pajm said:


> Nice lift back with sp yesterday on back of good news with Crux - looking good. Anyone got some news/thoughts.........................




Looks like you've been a lone trooper on this thread lately mate!

They are basically looking fairly solid at the moment imo, this is a long-term hold for me, so I'm not really too concerned about sp fluctuations over the short-mid term.  The inevitable sp re-rating will occur once/if NXS can demonstrate that the Crux liquids project and Longtom are a definite go.

The main downsides I can see with NXS is their Australian-only/slightly undiversified portfolio, no production for another couple of years and NXS's untested ability to deliver on key projects.  Although the Crux drilling seems to be well under control, with better than expected results and they've been keeping the market well informed so far.

Steady as she goes
jman


----------



## kyme

Good write up in The Australian. Mentions that an analyst at EL & C Baillieu  considers the well results so far extremely positive for the reserves position in the Crux field. depending on analysis in the coming weeks it was likely that Crux reserves would be upgraded by a minimum of 30 per cent and it was possible that reserves could be more than doubled and eventually exceed 200 million barrels. "this is a positive development that guarantees the development of the Crux Scheme, which will most likely experience a significant reserves upgrade in nthe middle of 2008".

I'm in NXS for long term, looks likely the patient here will be well rewarded.


----------



## jman2007

kyme said:


> Good write up in The Australian. Mentions that an analyst at EL & C Baillieu  considers the well results so far extremely positive for the reserves position in the Crux field. depending on analysis in the coming weeks it was likely that Crux reserves would be upgraded by a minimum of 30 per cent and it was possible that reserves could be more than doubled and eventually exceed 200 million barrels. "this is a positive development that guarantees the development of the Crux Scheme, which will most likely experience a significant reserves upgrade in nthe middle of 2008".
> 
> I'm in NXS for long term, looks likely the patient here will be well rewarded.




That sounds like an excellent article Kyme, hopefully the company will upload it to their website, or the Australian may have still have it online?

jman


----------



## pajm

The article in the Australian certainly is positive. I got onto to NXS on the back of CBA becoming a major shareholder in 2004 - notice the other day they have withdrawn all holdings. I'll continue to stay in for long term as believe the company is well managed and prospects to date looking good. Good to see some input on the thread again.


----------



## kyme

pajm said:


> The article in the Australian certainly is positive. I got onto to NXS on the back of CBA becoming a major shareholder in 2004 - notice the other day they have withdrawn all holdings. I'll continue to stay in for long term as believe the company is well managed and prospects to date looking good. Good to see some input on the thread again.




CBA no longer substantial holder for NXS as they have been selling managed fund holdings (ie clients funds). Looking at the notices though, CBA have been continual buyers of NXS for themselves, albeit CBA staff Super Fund. I take that as a strong vote of confidence in NXS.


----------



## jman2007

Another strong day for NXS, currently up 8c to 1.66.  Probably one of the risks associated with NXS was the uncertainty whether development of Crux would go ahead, with a potential target in excess of 200M barrels, this should defintely tip the balance in favour of development imo.

I don't think the market can overlook NXS any longer, next year could see the company pull ahead of the pack of mid-tier O&G hopefuls and cement it's place as a serious mid-long term producer.

jman


----------



## pk_wasp

And don't forget, plenty of booked drills ahead for 2008, so plenty of exploration upside

All the best for 2008 NXS holders


----------



## b4subi05

Another nice move for NXS today, its been a good week and a bit. Looks as though today's announcement was deemed positive. A positive CRUX 3 report tomorrow may see another rise. Getting close to the 1.90 ceiling. It will be interesting to see what happens this time. Maybe 3rd time lucky.


----------



## chops_a_must

I had mentioned previously that amongst the turmoil I had been buying a few things. NXS being one of those. Excellent technicals, and a whole host of absolutely fantastic fundamental announcements.

Might be worth all of those oil and gas fundies taking a really hard look at this, because it appears to be an absolute ripper.

Here is the latest installment, with NXS up 7% and holding on the news:


> *Progress Report No. 6
> Crux-3 Appraisal Well
> “Crux-3 Flowing at 50 MMscf/d”*
> 
> Nexus Energy Limited (“Nexus”) is pleased to advise that the Crux-3 appraisal well is now being production tested and at 6:00 am (ACST) was flowing at a rate of 50 MMscf/d with an associated average condensate rate of approximately 2,000 barrels per day through a 1” choke with a flowing well head pressure of 2,770 psi.
> 
> The interval being tested is the Montara Formation over the depth 3,595 metres to 3,608 metres. This top sand intersected in the well is now being tested, this has not previously been tested in the field. The main reservoir section (“A” and “B” sand) is in pressure communication with this top sand and is not being tested because it was previously tested in the Crux-1 well.
> The condensate ratios recorded from this test are as expected given the test separator conditions and confirm that the gas will produce a condensate to gas ratio of approximately 35 barrels/MMscf when processed by the facilities planned for the Crux liquids project. The flow rate has been limited by the capacity of the testing equipment.
> 
> The information gathered from the production test will be used in the detailed design of the production facilities for the Crux liquids project.
> PAGE 1 OF 3
> NEXUS ENERGY LTD ASX CODE: NXS
> DATE: 14 JANUARY 2008
> Once gas and condensate samples have been taken, the well will be suspended and retained as a production well.
> The Crux-3 well is the first of three wells to be drilled in the greater Crux area over the next three months. Suspension of the Crux-3 well and moving of the rig to the Crux-4 well location should be completed within the next week. The third well will be drilled in the adjoining AC/P41 exploration permit to test the Libra exploration prospect, in which Nexus holds a 50% interest.
> 
> Nexus managing director, Ian Tchacos said, “The Crux-3 well is now the second production/injection well drilled in the Crux liquids project. The identification of the younger Montara sands in the well (and proof of their excellent productivity) has provided Nexus with further exploration and appraisal potential in both AC/P23 and the surrounding AC/P41 permit. We now look forward to the drilling of Crux-4 and Libra-1 wells.”
> Participants
> Nexus Energy WA Pty Ltd (85%)
> Osaka Gas Crux Pty Ltd (15%)
> 
> Location
> The Crux-3 well is located in AC/P23, in the offshore Browse Basin, Western Australia.
> Latitude: 12 deg 57' 32.63” S
> Longitude: 124 deg 26' 50.07” E
> Map showing location of the Crux field in permit AC/P23
> PAGE 2 OF 3


----------



## jman2007

chops_a_must said:


> I had mentioned previously that amongst the turmoil I had been buying a few things. NXS being one of those. Excellent technicals, and a whole host of absolutely fantastic fundamental announcements.
> 
> Might be worth all of those oil and gas fundies taking a really hard look at this, because it appears to be an absolute ripper.
> 
> Here is the latest installment, with NXS up 7% and holding on the news:




Hey Chops

Jumped on board with NXS back in May, definitely had a great run over the last few weeks, amidst a declining market I have to add. I think there are some really great positives here, possible weaknesses imo include no likely production until 2009, and possible funding pressure being placed on NXS with the development of Crux.  Although I have to say that given the nature of the releases lately, financing may not be such a big hurdle....

jman


----------



## Col Lector

The NXS/AZA merger is a very good outcome IMO. Plenty of synergies. Immediate cash-flow.
Interesting structure to the deal. Leaves ARC totally out in the cold...largely due to the combination of certainty,choice & upside it offers AZA shareholders.
The dilutive impact will (likely) be minimised by cancellation of AZA's holding of NXS; & by the cash component of the offer.
Success at the imminent Crux-4 &/or Libra drillings - to add to the positive Crux-3 results - will leave this deal looking good for all parties with NXS likely to head north towards/beyond $2/share.
Regarding Basker/Manter/Gummy (BMG), the predicted potential for field extensions into adjoining NXS/AZA leases gives the merged entity huge upside
The BMG project also benefits greatly by gaining the ability to process/market BMG biproduct gas (currently  reinjected) via NXS's nearby Longtom facilities.
BPT is a beneficiary of NXS merging with AZA due to :
exploration upside of extensions onto NXS adjoining leases
new efficiencies & advanced  processing/marketing opportunities for both BMG gas (& oil) by access to NXS Longtom facilities
Introduction of NXS industrry backers (eg, Viking) to the BMG expansion
Potential scale efficiencies at every level by BPT & NXS project cooperation.... 

Current SP's of NXS (1.46)or AZA (1.55) do not IMO recognise the potential of the merged entity. 
IMO, buying into AZA is an attractive means of gaining exposure to NXS upside, given the limited downside inferred by the NXS terms.


----------



## Col Lector

The way I see it 
NXS & the merged entity will benefit hugely from a smooth merger. 
Deal istructure is attractive forAZA holders
Current NXS & AZA SP's have been impacted by current slump & pullback in oil but the entities reserve upside potential (possibly in near future following Crux-4) is where the real benefits, & basis for a rerating lie.

Worth referring to page 17 of yesterday's investor briefing, 
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080123/pdf/3171xn0xxzlmd3.pdf
At NXS sp $1.50 the value per AZA share is estimated at $1.75, falling to $1.61 value per AZA share if NXS falls to $1.30.
Currently AZA is trading below $1.55 & NXS ~ $1.48.
Is AZA a cheap entry??..even assuming no higher bids come along (still a possibility...but fairly remote). 
Opinions sought on this.
The upside scenario...possibly with upgrading of reserves post Crux-4, is catered for under the merger terms ie, NXS sp rises to $2.30/share, confers a value per AZA share of $1.88.
Obviously the preferred scenario for both NXS & AZA holders.

Note AZA shareholders accepting the offer also stand to gain from a 7c/share special dividend pre-merger. Appears this is additional to figures above but this not clear .... Anyone got ideas on this??


----------



## jman2007

Well I'll be damned 

I have to admit I didn't really appreciate the full-scale of the proposed meregr and the potential of this development until I read through the NXS Jan08 Investor presentation, and imo the proposal looks like an absolute ripper.

I don't really have too much to add to Col Lectors excellent analysis of the merger proposal, which was backed up with substansial hard evidence. This looks like it was a real street-fight between ARQ and NXS with the latter company being comprehensively left battered and bleeding in the gutter.

I always felt that the smaller-mid cap companies in the sector had the ability to move manouver a lot faster than the top-heavy big boys, and take advantage of opportunities like this.

Needless to say, shareholders on both sides of the fence should be very pleased 

I'll continue to research this development and come back with something a bit more objective perhaps :iamwithst

jman


----------



## Happy

If good news doesn’t push price up higher, and price goes lower, based on technical analysis, there is good support and resistance at 0.75 to 0.85 range.


----------



## pajm

Anyone got any thoughts on where SP may head with planned merger? Does it dilute value in short term? I thought SP would have gone better last couple of days with market up and proposed merger being good long term outlook for NXS.


----------



## jman2007

Patience is the name of the game here pajm,

The merger is fairly complex and I haven't fully got my head fully around all the conditions, and just exactly who is issuing shares to who yet. 

Over the short term it'd be a brave man to try and predict the sp amongst the current market volatility. With Basker online we should see some positive impact on the cashflow scenario this year, but the full sp value may not be realised until Crux comes online in 2010.

The market might also be hedging its bets to see how this merger plays out imo, it will be a real challenge for management to streamline and coordinate the immense potential here, but the long-term potential looks great.  Defintely a long-term hold for me.

jman


----------



## pajm

That's true jman. Needs time to see how the merger pans out and difficult at the moment with the volatility. Was hoping in the interim for bit of a lift with sp with the news - imagine could have been hit a lot harder with recent fall. I am long term holder also. Merger certaintly good for long term for NXS and great in short term with cashflow from Basker, as you mention. Wonder if NXS may look for further acquisitions down the track after consolidation?


----------



## Col Lector

Jman...thanks for the backpat.  IMO the merger+Crux-4 currently drilling make things doubly(+) interesting for both NXS & AZA holders.
Crux-4 success has the potential to push NXS sp past the 2.05 price level....unlockng more merger value per share for AZA holders.
At 6am Jan 29 Crux-4 was at 1833m of total planned depth  3958m. The next week...or 2 should be fairly rivetting....
Gidday Pajm...
 A possible explanation for NXS relatively weak finish to week ....The quarterly suggests a possible delay of Longtom gas production. IMO this could be a part of the evolving strategy of NXS that will seek  to harness the gas resources at BMG by processing/maketting them in tandem via Longtom faciliities.  A small delay may be a small price to pay for the scale efficiencies & marketting clout this delivers to NXS..to AZA/NXS holders ...and by association BPT...potentially significantly.
Santos declining to take up the NXS Longtom option is also interesting....some have taken it as a lack of confidence in the project...but are there other strategies at play here from STO??. 
Currently holding NXS, AZA & BPT ...so have more than a passing interest in how this all unfolds.
PS. Hey Happy are you posting to the right thread?? NXS TA has support at 75c?? Currently ~ $1.50. That's really going out on a limb.....


----------



## pajm

Hello Col Lector. Many thanks for your information. Did not realize STO did not take up Longtom option. Love to see BPT in on the merger action in the  future - they have performed really well. Have been on NXS since 2004 and believe they have good management, so will be interesting to see how this pans out with STO. NXS really have been kicking goals, particularly due to  great mangement. I agree with your comments regarding 'happy'. Would require a big bad bear for NXS to fall below 0.90. Any holder of NXS pre May '07 will be still 'licking their lips' if they took up May SPP @ 0.80, while sp went nth. before close of extended SPP


----------



## Col Lector

Pajm....would be enlightening to know how friendly the relationship is between NXS & BPT.....or NXS & STO for that matter.
Noticed BPT (as BMG partner) has been strangely quiet with regard to AZA merger but surely must have views on NXS's involvement ....probably v.positive given the synergies that flow their way...


----------



## pajm

Interesting Col Lector. Have been wondering for sometime what other consolidation is in store in the mid cap range. I have thought for awhile whether STO may make a play for NXS. I am a holder of AWE and they were one of the suitors for AZA. So.....will be interesting to see how it plays out in the future. Have a bit of confidence with NXS with the way they shook off AZA's initial advances and then NXS turned the tables, obviously assisted with market downturn and ARQ's crap sp performance in recent  times.


----------



## kash

I have now seen it twice that NXS has a ta support of 75cent. How did you arrive at that figure. thanks


----------



## EZZA

Been watching this one all day, this stock did not want to drop below $1.50.
Bought in at 1.505, lets hope price shoots up after drilling results.


----------



## jman2007

EZZA said:


> Been watching this one all day, this stock did not want to drop below $1.50.
> Bought in at 1.505, lets hope price shoots up after drilling results.




I wouldn't be overly concerned Ezza,

The trading environment is very volatile at the moment, and investors are still very edgey re further sub-prime woes coming out of the woodwork.  The assets NXS have acquired WILL take time to develop too.  NXS have gained substansial experience through negotiations and agreements over the past 12 months, but imo their ability to deliver on key projects has not yet been fully tested, which is the key here.  I have faith in the management however, and I believe they will eventually unlock the immense potential this company offers.  

jman


----------



## EZZA

yeah, looks like management have done a good job so far.  if they keep tracking the way they are nxs will be looking the goods.  been offloading a most of my portfolio, so nxs is a one of the few that i'm holding.  don't really want to be margin called if so i'll hold the ones i believe in.


----------



## Col Lector

Excellent results announced yesterday for Crux-4 appraisal well in exploration permit AC/P23, Browse Basin. This follows success at Crux-3 and ensures a substantial upgrade of reserves is imminent. Net to NXS stood at approx 56mbbl prior to Crux-3 & 4 so expectations are for new reserves to exceed 100mbbl+. With more drilling to come....
NXS still trading substantially below broker targets (see Paterson's on NXS website) prior to Crux-4 success. Last $1.65.



> The Crux-4drill intersected approx 110 metres of high quality net gas bearing sand over a 190 metre gross interval confirming the field extends into the previously undrilled South East Horst block.
> This discovery could have significant positive implications for exploration prospectivity in the eastern part of exploration permit AC/P23.
> As at 06:00 am (ACST), the Crux-4 appraisal well had reached a depth of 3,760 metres true vertical depth sub sea (“TVDSS”). The final suite of wireline logs are currently being acquired.
> The Crux-4 well has confirmed that the Crux field extends into the previously undrilled South East Horst block, intersecting the top gas sand at the highest point seen in the field approximately 20 metres above the highest gas sand seen in the Crux-3 well.
> 
> The uppermost sand intersected in the well lies over 310 metres above the field-wide gas water contact. Pressure measurements obtained from the well confirm that the gas intersected at this location is in pressure communication with the gas column encountered in the core area of the field and is likely to have the same gas water contact.
> 
> The forward plan will be to set the 9 ⅝ inch casing before drilling ahead to the planned total depth of 3,958 metres TVDSS. The well will be suspended as a future production well.
> The Crux-4 well is the second of three wells to be drilled in the greater Crux area. The third well, Libra-1, will be drilled in the adjoining AC/P41 exploration permit in April 2008. Nexus holds a 50% interest in AC/P41 in conjunction with its partner, Shell Development (Australia) Pty Ltd.
> Nexus managing director, Ian Tchacos said, “We have encountered a very significant gas column in a previously undrilled portion of the field. This well has encountered the largest gross gas column seen in the Crux field to date. These results confirm the extension of the field into the South East Horst block and have positive implications for exploration prospectivity in the eastern part of AC/P23.”
> “The Crux-4 gas reservoir intersection follows on from the excellent results obtained at Crux-3 and is expected to further enhance the commerciality of the Crux liquids project scheduled for project sanction by August 2008. Crux-4 is the third well drilled to date that will be kept as a future development well, thereby contributing to the value of the project.”
> Mr Tchacos said, “The Crux-4 well was located to test the South East Horst extension of the Crux field. The South East Horst lies outside of the Crux ‘core’ area and the reservoir distribution information which is expected to be obtained from this well is likely to have significant implications for further field appraisal and near field exploration such as the nearby Auriga prospect in the AC/P23 exploration permit.”
> Location
> The Crux-4 well is located in AC/P23, in the offshore Browse basin, Western Australia.
> Latitude: 12 deg 57' 52.97” S
> Longitude: 124 deg 27' 38.19” E
> Participants
> Nexus Energy WA Pty Ltd (85%)
> Osaka Gas Crux Pty Ltd (15%)


----------



## EZZA

nice moves of late, anyone with a new valuation?

mac d  crossed up. dmi says trending.
21 day ma is pointing up, hope it keep moving.


----------



## EZZA

good day today a lot of interest in this stock, sold some shares, hoping to pick them up again if there is a retraction.  

other oil stock i noticed moved was aed, 40% wow even though its trending down.


----------



## Col Lector

Retracement Ezza?? Hope you didnt offload too many. NXS looking solid IMO - The sellers seem to have departed. Strong volumes yesterday - sp up 9%. 
Holding these gains. Currently up 1.5% at 1.77
Good article in AFR today.


----------



## EZZA

Col Lector said:


> Retracement Ezza?? Hope you didnt offload too many. NXS looking solid IMO - The sellers seem to have departed. Strong volumes yesterday - sp up 9%.
> Holding these gains. Currently up 1.5% at 1.77
> Good article in AFR today.




sold just under half my holdings, so still have some there, in this environment i'd wished i'd taken some profits before the jan correction, now i'm just trying to take some now.  i'm not the best at knowing when a pull back it about to occur, but i've still got some cash there and will be able to make money from nxs.  can see this stock moving above 2.00 mark eventualy happy to take some profits considering it was only at 1.38 a few days ago, moves have been substantial, but yeah definately a lot of interest here. 

yeah saw the afr article this morning, will be interesting come march. i'm thinking i'll try and hold some long term and trade some short term, got burnt holding even my good stocks in jan, will try to re coup some of my dosh this year.  and hopefully gain some more trading experience and knowledge.

cheers buddy


----------



## pajm

G'day Col and fellow NXS faithful. Good article on NXS in f/review with comments from MD, Ian Tachos - in London and apparently talking to investors who previously did not show interest a year back. He sounds a bit of a gun in the industry in terms of creating things. Would obviously be there with the AZA merger happenings. Crux report due end of March. As Tachos points out, SP has held really well over past three months (particularly with recent market 'carnage'). Crux will be the real money spinner of all the assets, including Basker. Things are looking good. Of course recent happenings with market and AED recent spanking reminds one to never get too complacent. Nevertheless......lets keep riding the NXS train


----------



## pajm

Only realized after posting, threads above regarding today's fin/review article. Notice on NXS web site, for what it is worth, that Bell Potter research values NXS sp with recent AZA meger at $2.34.


----------



## jman2007

Yes Tachos can sure talk the talk,

But he is also walking the walk at the moment, some really intense interest in NXS has been building for several days now.  EZZA I would definitely be holding on to a fair size parcel atm. Traditionally, NXS has always found it hard to sustain continual support in the 1.70-1.80 range, but the fundamentals are now looking so solid that it would be surprising to a serious retrace at this stage.  Interesting to see the Bell Potter evaluation, testing out 2.00 would be new territory for everyone, and it will be very interesting to see the way this plays out next week.  Absolutely insane sp movement in AED recently, several burnt fingers 2day I feel.

jman


----------



## EZZA

topped more up today at 1.70, happy to trade this portion if there are any nice movements, also happy to hold if this one moves beyond 1.78. its hit this mark a few times and pulled back.


----------



## pajm

Notice CBA are back on board as a major shareholder again. Things continuing to look great with recent Crux results.


----------



## jman2007

Well that 1.78 mark is proving rather elusive, still seeing some rather choppy trading especially with the fall on the Dow heavily influencing prices across the board.

The chart is very much open to interpretation imo, Col Lector and some of the other t/a's on board will probably be able to make much more sense of it than myself however.

Haven't had a chance to digest the latest news yet, getting CBA back on board again looks like a bit of a coup however.

jman


----------



## golfmos123

No news here for a while so thought I'd add something....

SP up strongly today (up 11c or around 7%) on no news.  Doesn't usually happen with this stock.  Has been kicking around the 140s for a little while now with no real signs of trying to break out to test the recent highs in the 170s.

Is there an ann coming or one due on the latest Crux well??  Or is there some further news on the merger perhaps?  Time may tell.....

Still holding until we get the SP closer to the $2 mark before I'd take any profits on this one.


----------



## jman2007

I thought the rise was a little unusual myself,

The chart has quite happily been riding along sub 1.50'ish for a while, I certainly wouldn't have said NXS has looked like a potential breakout candidate lately, and nothing released to cause any kind of price re-evaluation either. Interesting, but it may also be greater market buoyancy than what we've been used to seeing lately 

jman


----------



## EZZA

hope this merger gets sorted out over the nxt couple of weeks.  would like to see how the market values the merged entity.  i'd see quite good value here, based on record prices for oil, and anzon being a producer already.

when nexus comes into production i see high oil prices sticking around, maybe not the 120 a barrel, but well above 50 a barrel which some of the old broker estimates were based on. 

i certainly hope gas is the next oil, as nexus have a fair bit of it, with increased reserve estimates that have been coming through.
"just hope this puppy makes me some dosh" Go nexus!

.
i c value in this company over the next few years if they pull of whats in the pipelines.


----------



## golfmos123

Gee this thread can go quiet....

News today that NXS and AZA will not be proceeding with any merger.  Seems like both companies are happy and the decision was mutual and will be free of charges as well.

Interesting reaction to the news too.  NXS jumps up 10% and AZA falls by 20%.

Anyway, I'm happy about the news.  It will leave NXS to pursue its Longtom and Crux agendas free of worrying about other things.  Still a reasonable bet to move back towards its old highs with some positive news I would guess.  Some brokers still appear positive on it as well.


----------



## EZZA

looks like its all sorted now. no deal.

nxs will concentrate on their own assets.

todays article on etrade, for those interested. fundamental value marked off at 2.55 to 3.20.  lets see how the year will pan out.

Previous Article | Next Article 
Back to News | Back to Markets 
=DJ 2nd UPDATE: Nexus Energy Takeover Of Anzon Called Off05/05/2008 01:54PM AEST  
   (Adds comment from Anzon, analyst.) 

   By Matt Chambers 
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Nexus Energy Ltd.'s (NXS.AU) A$648 million deal to buy Anzon Australia Ltd. (AZA.AU) has been scrapped after Nexus tried to slash its offer price following poorer-than-expected drilling results at the Basker field offshore Victoria state. 

"The decision came as a result of the parties not being able to agree that revised merger terms were necessary in light of the impact of the Basker 6 and Basker 6 sidetrack drilling programs" at the Basker oil field, Nexus said in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange Monday. 

Nexus tried to cut its cash and share offer by between 30% and 35% on the view that the well results showed the Basker-Manta-Gummy field was up to 40% smaller than thought, Ivor Ries, an analyst at E.L. & C. Baillieu in Melbourne said Monday in a note to clients. 

Anzon Managing Director Andrew Young declined to say what Nexus' position was but said the idea that the field's reserves would be cut by 40% was "preposterous". Nexus didn't immediately return calls. 

Basker 6 was sidetracked after the original development and appraisal well couldn't produce, indicating the field was smaller than thought and leading Nexus to reconsider its bid. The sidetrack, closer to the known boundaries of the field, was successful, with testing showing production of 8,000 barrels a day and Anzon has declined to drop its price to the extent Nexus wanted. 

"It's obviously a pity that Nexus withdrew but they were talking ridiculous numbers - the offer was completely unacceptable," Young told Dow Jones in an interview. "We've still got a very good field and will have good oil rates" from the new well, with the 8,000 barrels-a-day test rate, also announced Monday, four times what had been expected. 

Both Anzon and Nexus had similar technical views on the field and Anzon "really don't know" why Nexus Managing Director Ian Tchacos pulled out of the deal, Young said. He declined to say how the company's oil resources will be affected and said that a revised reserve statement will be out in coming weeks. 

Nexus' deal to buy Anzon for A$1.75 a share in cash and stock had trumped an earlier deal by ARC Energy Ltd. (ARQ.AU) to merge with Anzon. ARC is unlikely to reappear as a bidder, though, having recently agreed to be bought by Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd. (AWE.AU), as Australia's mid-size oil companies look to consolidate amid rising oil prices and increases in project costs. 

Anzon shares slumped on the news, and at 0350 GMT were down 28 cents, or 19%, at A$118.00. Nexus shares were up 15.5 cents, or 10%, at A$1.66. 

"The Anzon merger process has proven to be a millstone around the Nexus share price due to the possibility that a large number of Anzon shareholders would have sold into the market post-merger," said E.L. & C Baillieu's Ries, who rates Nexus a Buy. "Now that the potential post-merger overhang has been removed, we see Nexus shares moving closer to fundamental value of between $2.55 and $3.20 per share." 

Anzon's Young said the company has no plans to sell its 12% stake in Nexus. 

"Right now, it's a good asset to have," Young said. Nexus also has a 19% stake in Anzon. 


-By Matt Chambers, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-3-9671-4393; Matt.chambers@dowjones.com 


(END) Dow Jones Newswires 

May 04, 2008 23:54 ET (03:54 GMT) 

Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 

Previous Article | Next Article 
Back to News | Back to Markets 
View all Australian News


----------



## jman2007

Cheers for the article EZZA,

I began to feel things were dragging along quite long enough to be honest, and I am glad that some certainty and decision-making has been brought back into the picture. 

Who can say whether or not the revised reserve figures that Tchacos came up with are in the ballpark.... they obviously incensed AZA  But Tcahcos strikes me as a guy who has his head screwed on, and has built a fairly impressive track record recently in terms of closing deals etc. He would have access to all kinds of technical data on Basker, so we as shareholders can only speculate.

So he gets the benefit of the doubt from me for the time being 

jman


----------



## EZZA

Big numbers today, volume over 5 million, pushing up strongly.

will watch this one closely over nxt few days.


----------



## ahoward

SYDNEY, May 28 - Nexus Energy Limited ("Nexus") today announced the launch of an institutional placement of 83.4 million shares to raise approximately $140 million.

The institutional placement will be conducted by way of a bookbuild to institutional and other non-retail investors, both domestically and offshore.

Nexus also intends to offer eligible Australian or New Zealand registered shareholders the opportunity to subscribe for up to $5,000 worth of shares through a share purchase plan ("SPP"). Further details of the SPP will be mailed to shareholders following completion of the institutional placement. The record date for determining eligibility to participate in the SPP will be Thursday 5 June 2008.

Proceeds from the capital raising will principally be used to fund the continued development of Nexus' key projects and working capital, including:

* The remaining equity requirement for Longtom to enable drawdown of project finance and delivery of first gas sales in April 2009

*The acceleration of long lead time items and further progress towards project sanction and completion of FID process at Crux by late 2008

* Other exploration and appraisal initiatives including Libra, Garfish near field exploration and Sidestep exploration, and the acceleration of Echuca Shoals and greater Crux appraisals. 

*What effect will this have on the share price in the short and long term?*


----------



## mrgroundwork

ahoward do you think anyone knows the answer to that? 

obviously it is going to dilute things slightly in the short term but personally i would prefer they raised funds this way, than give away large % shares in their crux or longtom project to a bigger company for cash...

this way they get to preserve the long term value of some of their projects for a bit of short term pain...


----------



## jman2007

Pretty frustrating being a NXS holder atm...

I'm not exactly sure where all the selling pressure is coming from recently, don't think I've seen any change in substansial holding notices from the insto's come out recently. Has NXS suddenly become a riskier O&G play in recent times for some reason, unbeknown to me?

It looks fairly certain the NXS will reduce their interest in Crux by another 10%, perhaps the thinking behind this is that by having a few other heavy weights on the books, it may provide easier access for debt finance the project during the development phase.

Certainly surprised to see support at 1.50'ish so comprehensively broken, particularly glad I didn't participate in the SPP tbh :

jman


----------



## golfmos123

NXS has been seriously bleeding of late.  Hard to see that a stock which was touted as a new producing darling has now been dumped at the altar.  I'm sure I saw broker house reports looking at 18mth targets around the $4 mark (and that was when the SP was hovering in the 170s, not at the current 110s).  Amaazing to see such a fall when all recent reports of drilling at Longtom are good and pipeline construction being planned to link wtih the Santos facility on shore.

A quality little company, hopefully biding its time to join the ranks of producers.

Disclaimer : Have held, don't hold now (baled at high 170s).  Very much looking to re-enter soon though.


----------



## gav

golfmos123 said:


> NXS has been seriously bleeding of late.  Hard to see that a stock which was touted as a new producing darling has now been dumped at the altar.  I'm sure I saw broker house reports looking at 18mth targets around the $4 mark (and that was when the SP was hovering in the 170s, not at the current 110s).  Amaazing to see such a fall when all recent reports of drilling at Longtom are good and pipeline construction being planned to link wtih the Santos facility on shore.
> 
> A quality little company, hopefully biding its time to join the ranks of producers.
> 
> Disclaimer : Have held, don't hold now (baled at high 170s).  Very much looking to re-enter soon though.




I have been watching this one over the last few months also.  Do you have a set re-entry price?



Gav


----------



## golfmos123

gav said:


> I have been watching this one over the last few months also.  Do you have a set re-entry price?
> 
> Gav




Thanks Gav,
Have been away for a few days.  Still haven't reentered NXS yet, with current volatility waiting for around 110.  All announcements on current drilling are positive too, so am slighly cautious on missing a possible bounce as well.  But 110 or thereabouts it is.


----------



## Miner

I bought NXS today at a low price hoping market will revive next week. One of my colleauges ex stock analyst also bought the same. I followed him as he does a lot of research, unders oil industry like any thing and done some research. I was afraid to ask his reasonings however/ 

Any one has latest info research on NXS. I probably played a blind today and do not know if it would be a dud


----------



## Knobby22

Miner said:


> I bought NXS today at a low price hoping market will revive next week. One of my colleauges ex stock analyst also bought the same. I followed him as he does a lot of research, unders oil industry like any thing and done some research. I was afraid to ask his reasonings however/
> 
> Any one has latest info research on NXS. I probably played a blind today and do not know if it would be a dud




I adore Nexus and have bought a lot of them and reckon the stock is very cheap at present. They have the cash and they have the resources to develop. They also have Scandanavian partners that have bought in and are not incredibly wealthy for nothing.

Whether now is the perfect time to buy is unknown. There is a chance that that the oil price could temporarily fall lower if demand drops due to a world recession.


----------



## jman2007

Knobby22 said:


> I adore Nexus and have bought a lot of them and reckon the stock is very cheap at present. They have the cash and they have the resources to develop.




They may have cash, but they have no cashflow and also have significant liability. Don't forget that their total current short-term and long-term borrowings via debt financing to test, develop and progress Longtom and Crux are in the range of $200M.

A relatively high-risk O&G play in the current economic climate, but does look to be a little oversold. Then again, many aspiring O&G plays could argue a similar point I suppose.

jman


----------



## Knobby22

jman2007 said:


> They may have cash, but they have no cashflow and also have significant liability. Don't forget that their total current short-term and long-term borrowings via debt financing to test, develop and progress Longtom and Crux are in the range of $200M.
> 
> A relatively high-risk O&G play in the current economic climate, but does look to be a little oversold. Then again, many aspiring O&G plays could argue a similar point I suppose.
> 
> jman




Good points jman and its good to get your viewpoint.
They have got $240 million in cash and still have the money to come in for selling their stake in Anzon. They do have some cashflow though it is a pittance when compared to the costs needed to develop the oil fields. 

It's true that the debt is over $200 million and is expensive and $80 million of it will need to be negotiated later this year in the presently terrible markets. So  I agree there is some risk if problems occur with the development but so far the company management have been pretty good at ensuring the company goes forward on a good footing. To me it looks a very good investment.


----------



## jman2007

Knobby22 said:


> Good points jman and its good to get your viewpoint.
> They have got $240 million in cash and still have the money to come in for selling their stake in Anzon. They do have some cashflow though it is a pittance when compared to the costs needed to develop the oil fields.
> 
> It's true that the debt is over $200 million and is expensive and $80 million of it will need to be negotiated later this year in the presently terrible markets. So  I agree there is some risk if problems occur with the development but so far the company management have been pretty good at ensuring the company goes forward on a good footing. To me it looks a very good investment.




I think NXS are looking to simply cut their losses with AZA and try and put the whole saga behind them. I saw in the financials that NXS's stake in AZA was partly funded by a $40M credit facility, which is due to expire on the 22nd Oct. From what I can work out, their stake in AZA was built from a combination of on-market purchases (26.8M shares @ $1.70) and a 1:1 swap of 13.6M NXS shares for AZA shares. As NXS have accpeted ROC's terms, it would seem that this investment has deprecciated by the best part of $30-40M(?).

I guess the key with any new company is their ability to deliver and execute projects on time. The delay in processing gas from Longtom will be fairly bitter pill to swallow for all parties. It basically looks like Santos, the owner of the on-shore gas processing plant didn't have the necessary environmental approvals in place... you have to wonder what the combined Santos/Nexus enviro depts were doing at the time.... get up with the play people  In all fairness though, it doesn't look like it ws entirely NXS's fault, but a delay is still a delay.

One prospect we have heard very little about recently is Echuca Shoals, I thought NXS were once extremely condifent with this one? The Fossetmaker-1 well delineated an amount of gas equating to around 2Tcf... I'm no expert, but it doesn't sound like a huge volume to me . The Garfish-1 results don't sound like they set exactly set the world on fire either, has this effectively but a lid on potential expansions to Longtom for the time being?

A difficult time for NXS, I really can't see the price going anywhere for a while tbh, I think realsitically we should be happy for it to hold above $1 for the time being.

jman


----------



## Knobby22

jman2007 said:


> I think NXS are looking to simply cut their losses with AZA and try and put the whole saga behind them. I saw in the financials that NXS's stake in AZA was partly funded by a $40M credit facility, which is due to expire on the 22nd Oct. From what I can work out, their stake in AZA was built from a combination of on-market purchases (26.8M shares @ $1.70) and a 1:1 swap of 13.6M NXS shares for AZA shares. As NXS have accpeted ROC's terms, it would seem that this investment has deprecciated by the best part of $30-40M(?).
> 
> I guess the key with any new company is their ability to deliver and execute projects on time. The delay in processing gas from Longtom will be fairly bitter pill to swallow for all parties. It basically looks like Santos, the owner of the on-shore gas processing plant didn't have the necessary environmental approvals in place... you have to wonder what the combined Santos/Nexus enviro depts were doing at the time.... get up with the play people  In all fairness though, it doesn't look like it ws entirely NXS's fault, but a delay is still a delay.
> 
> One prospect we have heard very little about recently is Echuca Shoals, I thought NXS were once extremely condifent with this one? The Fossetmaker-1 well delineated an amount of gas equating to around 2Tcf... I'm no expert, but it doesn't sound like a huge volume to me . The Garfish-1 results don't sound like they set exactly set the world on fire either, has this effectively but a lid on potential expansions to Longtom for the time being?
> 
> A difficult time for NXS, I really can't see the price going anywhere for a while tbh, I think realsitically we should be happy for it to hold above $1 for the time being.
> 
> jman




Santos have always been pretty badly managed.

I agree, some of the blue sky has disappeared, not to mention the condensate tax.

The price range you suggest seems right to me at present.
I will be very interested in the speeches made at the Annual meeting.


----------



## jman2007

jman2007 said:


> A difficult time for NXS, I really can't see the price going anywhere for a while tbh, I think realistically we should be happy for it to hold above $1 for the time being. jman




Getting closer to that pyschological mark of $1, not good for NXS considering the importance of the farm-in details yet to be disclosed. 

jman


----------



## Knobby22

And the deal fell through as you warned jman.

I sold some went they went below $1. Should have sold more.


----------



## mrgroundwork

84c 

wow, never thought i would see sub $1 let alone mid 80's...

NXS has a ridiculous ratio of reserves to enterprise value... problem is will they have enough cash to bring them into production??? with this deal falling through and the current economic conditions, it appears the market is pricing the stock for a large amount of funding risk... 

if you have the balls and believe they will get the funding eventually somehow, then this is a great opportunity to buy in...


----------



## jman2007

Knobby22 said:


> And the deal fell through as you warned jman.
> 
> I sold some went they went below $1. Should have sold more.




Yes, this is a crushing blow Knobby either way you look at it. I have held on to my NXS shares through thick and thin, but am now questioning the wisdom of this . Crux will have probably have to be re-rated again in terms of financial and technical risk. Tchacos and DB (Tchacos especially) sound rather bullish re their "Global Search leaving no stone un-turned" approach in finding another farm-in partner, but you have to ask yourself how serious anyone would be in parting with around $300M in the current market meltdown.

At best, I think we may have to consider a reshuffling of the Crux production timetable, at worst this may throw into doubt the entire viability of the Crux project. Scary times indeed.

Damn it!

jman


----------



## Knobby22

jman2007 said:


> Yes, this is a crushing blow Knobby either way you look at it. I have held on to my NXS shares through thick and thin, but am now questioning the wisdom of this . Crux will have probably have to be re-rated again in terms of financial and technical risk. Tchacos and DB (Tchacos especially) sound rather bullish re their "Global Search leaving no stone un-turned" approach in finding another farm-in partner, but you have to ask yourself how serious anyone would be in parting with around $300M in the current market meltdown.
> 
> At best, I think we may have to consider a reshuffling of the Crux production timetable, at worst this may throw into doubt the entire viability of the Crux project. Scary times indeed.
> 
> Damn it!
> 
> jman





I'm a long term holder too. Any way you look at it, they will have to part with a bigger percentage of the project in these times to get the $300m. Bugger.


----------



## Miner

An open query to NXS researchers : with a price tumbling down and closing at 49 cents today what do you think the behaviour of this company ? 

Apparently a colleauge of mine  who was an ex analyst bought it at more than $1 has added up his holding constantly as it goes through. I bought some today and pondering if it will go down tomorrow with DJ movement.

No tip here but to understand the dynamics with the falling petrol price and the future of such fly by night operators- any critic or expert comment please ?


----------



## jackson8

apart from the day to day turmoil that the whole market faces

nexus have large potentiol but they dont have the cashflow to support developement of their project thus they will need to rely on selling an interest in the crux liquids project to fund ongoing costs

also even after funding issues are resolved actual production could be 3-4 years away and i think that holders have bailed out under present circumstances and the time factor involved with actually getting the project up and running

only my interpretation of what i have read lately from their announcements


----------



## jman2007

jackson8 said:


> apart from the day to day turmoil that the whole market faces
> 
> nexus have large potentiol but they dont have the cashflow to support developement of their project thus they will need to rely on selling an interest in the crux liquids project to fund ongoing costs
> 
> also even after funding issues are resolved actual production could be 3-4 years away and i think that holders have bailed out under present circumstances and the time factor involved with actually getting the project up and running




They will be in production before 3-4 years

Longtom should be up and running by this time next year. Crux is another story, yet is also the potential cash cow for the company. 

Don't forget that Tchacos has also recieved a margin call and has been forced to sell a rather large parcel of shares at around 55c, further depressing the price.

We need another few weeks of relative stability in the markets to get an idea of what the future has in store for NXS.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

It made for a good bounce trade on monday from 32c to 50c

First and only purchase/trade in NXS ever, hopefully not the last, so much value everywhere I look

For the last 3yrs I recall alot of analysts likening NXS to the next WPL


----------



## chops_a_must

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> It made for a good bounce trade on monday from 32c to 50c
> 
> First and only purchase/trade in NXS ever, hopefully not the last, so much value everywhere I look
> 
> For the last 3yrs I recall alot of analysts likening NXS to the next WPL



Unfortunately they are probably 6 months late when it comes to their financial position. Which is real kick in the ****.

Had they been 6 months ahead, you would be laughing.

Instead, I favour some on the east coast that are already in profit... so at least they are ticking over...


----------



## jman2007

chops_a_must said:


> Unfortunately they are probably 6 months late when it comes to their financial position. Which is real kick in the ****.
> 
> Had they been 6 months ahead, you would be laughing.
> 
> Instead, I favour some on the east coast that are already in profit... so at least they are ticking over...




Their $40M credit facility that was used to partly fund their acquisition of their AZA shares expires on the 22nd Oct. They will need to negotiate with the Bank of Scotland (Australia) to extend this margin loan facility to the 22nd of Nov. I don't know how I feel about this debt overhang, actually not that good. 

New substansial holder notice released today too, Indus Capital Partners who I know absolutely nothing about, probably another Hedge Fund unfortunately. Whoever was selling today was very keen to liquidate their position at any cost, and conversely the sell orders were taken up very quickly as well, another insto with a bit more common sense perhaps?

Yeah I know what you mean about the East-Coasters Chops, hard to go past QGC and AOE atm.

This aint no stock for the faint-hearted atm...

jman


----------



## Knobby22

Well, I've bought back the shares I sold and bought some extra.
Price has risen too quickly and too many directors are buying.

I think the credit facility has been resolved.


----------



## tech/a

Thanks to all those who bought strongly today.
Had a nice day trade. 49c to 58c
"Buy the rumor sell the fact"


----------



## jman2007

tech/a said:


> Thanks to all those who bought strongly today.
> Had a nice day trade. 49c to 58c
> "Buy the rumor sell the fact"




Not a bad win Tech

What prompted you to get into the game with this one? You trading the funnymentals or the technicals here?

Cheers
jman


----------



## jman2007

Getting lots of broker coverage now

http://nexusenergy.com.au/assets/97/Files/NXS%20External%2020081008.pdf
http://nexusenergy.com.au/assets/97/Files/NXS141008.pdf
http://nexusenergy.com.au/assets/97/Files/NXS%202008-10-09.pdf

Hartleys, Patersons and Bell Potter all pretty much esposuing the same message; that NXS looks to be substansially oversold, but do note that NXS remains a relatively risky O&G play. I do agree with their opinion that a new farm-in partner for Crux may have to be enticed with a larger % at a slightly discounted price to reflect current global trends.

Enjoy
jman


----------



## exgeo

Funny how things work out sometimes isn't it? The MD had to sell 1.5m shares 10 days ago or so due to a margin call. He got 55c for them. I guess he could buy at least some of them back again around 40c today!


----------



## dmagnus

This company is looking a little shaky with bulk debt and no revenue. Its running out of ROC shares to sell...


----------



## kkyyoo

Based on broker report

Hartley - target price in 12 mth is $1.59 - buy
Bell Potters target price $0.92 - speculative buy

Thats like 2-3 times current price

anyone has any thought on the share price when the suspension lifted on 
18 March 2009 ?


----------



## kkyyoo

Suspension of shares extended till 31 march 2009 
since they failed to sell the Crux stake 

They say its hard to sell because of the global condition and the oil price,  but the oil price  today almost hit $50... (increase of around $15 since its lows couple weeks ago)

Any thoughts ?? started to worry now.... !!!!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Amazing, I remember reading brokerage reports that cited NXS as the next WPL, how the mighty have fallen

I am really surpirsed that they are struggling to sell an energy project though, maybe they just want too much? I would have thought the Chinese would have happily stumped up cash for a large energy project, just take a look at the CSG sector lots of big $$$ deals being done there

Ddin't Shell buy one of NXS's projects? or am I thinking of someone else


----------



## kkyyoo

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Amazing, I remember reading brokerage reports that cited NXS as the next WPL, how the mighty have fallen
> 
> I am really surpirsed that they are struggling to sell an energy project though, maybe they just want too much? I would have thought the Chinese would have happily stumped up cash for a large energy project, just take a look at the CSG sector lots of big $$$ deals being done there
> 
> Ddin't Shell buy one of NXS's projects? or am I thinking of someone else




yea, I think Shell did bought the Crux (see below)

judging from below, they are desperate for cash but not "that desperate" 

that's why they suspend the shares till the next announcement on 31 March 09 when the debts are due

best thing they can get is they sell the Crux at an "acceptable price" and they finalise the finance/debt problems, and they get lower prices for their suppliers (which is a miracle if all 3 can happen  )

as per 31 Dec 2008 Financial Report

they have $57,511,000 of current liabilites they need to fund while they only have cash of around $51,678,000(short by $5,833,000 before paying any other related operating expenses, interest, etc) 

Quoted from: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Nexus-project-on-ice-$pd20090318-Q98X4?OpenDocument&src=srch

*"Nexus project on ice

Nexus Energy has put its billion-dollar condensates project on hold after failing to receive an "acceptable" offer for all or part of its 85 per cent stake in the Crux offshore oil and gas field in Western Australia. 

Having fielded interest from local and international companies, Nexus says the weak oil price – currently around $US48 a barrel – and ongoing deteriorating financial conditions have hurt its divestment process. 

The Melbourne-based oil and gas explorer says it now expects to make an announcement on asset sales, debt raising alternatives and significant contractual obligations by the end of the month. 

In an announcement today, Nexus said the "indicative offers and expressions of interests received by the company to date at the asset and corporate level have not as yet converted into acceptable firm offers”. 

It added that while it would continue to consider offers, it "will not actively market an interest in the Crux liquids project at this stage". 

Nexus has an 85 per cent stake in the project, with Osaka Gas owning the remaining 15 per cent. The project, believed to hold 55 million barrels of condensate (light oil reserves), was due to start production in the first half of 2011. Nexus signed a $US40 million deal several years ago to sell the Crux gas reserves to Shell Australia, with Shell assuming ownership of the permit and rights to extract the gas and remaining condensate in 2021. 

Deutsche Bank AG was hired in October to manage the sale after Japanese trading house Mitsui & Co withdrew from a deal to buy a 25 per cent stake for $US255 million. In November, chairman Michael Fowler said the company would consider bids for the whole company. The company has said it was open to selling more than the 25 per cent eyed by Mitsui, and willing to undertake deals with multiple parties. 

Alas, it was not to be. 

Nexus recently reported a 67.8 million loss for the six months to December 2008, and in its financial report on 17 March, the company said it was undertaking a divestment process to raise additional funding and negotiate with certain suppliers for reductions in commitments. 

The company said it hoped to boost cash flow to the tune of $100 million through asset sales and more favourable debt packages. 

The company has also announced the resignation of chief financial officer Peter Thomas, who had been in the role for six months. A replacement has not been named. "*


----------



## jman2007

kkyyoo said:


> judging from below, they are desperate for cash but not "that desperate"
> 
> that's why they suspend the shares till the next announcement on 31 March 09 when the debts are due
> 
> best thing they can get is they sell the Crux at an "acceptable price" and they finalise the finance/debt problems, and they get lower prices for their suppliers (which is a miracle if all 3 can happen  )




Yes, management are under pressure for sure,

This has been causing me a few grey hairs during the last 6 months I have to say. As we've been told, the global search for a potential "buyer", or farm-in partner for Crux has not resulted in an acceptable outcome for NXS.

I suppose we should be greatful that NXS didn't cave-in to some carpet-ball offer and sell off their stake in Crux for less than it is worth, and for that I am also thankful. I haven't been following the development with Longtom for a while, but I understand it's due to come on-line in a few months?... they definitely need some cashflow generation.

jman


----------



## kkyyoo

Another extension to the suspension till mid May 08 

What is happening to this company?


----------



## jman2007

It is a really unnerving time to be a NXS holder for sure. These extensions are getting a little ridiculous tbh, the longer this goes on the more it looks like they're fast running out of cards to play.

It was a good result to offload the Libra Exploration permit for $19M, and although Crux has substansially more latent value than NXS have debt, the problem is that they need cash in the short-term, perhaps even the long promised cash earnings from Longtom are not going to be enough.

Nothing to do but wait and see what happens unfortunately! 

jman


----------



## kingbrown

kkyyoo said:


> Another extension to the suspension till mid May 08
> 
> What is happening to this company?




Went past a nice country house the other day
Word its the chiefs ? 

Looks like he's got a fair old extension being built 
Fantastic views too 
Really nice spot 
He must still have a few cookies still left in the old jar yet 

Maybe i should keep an eye out for you guys just in case work stops ?


----------



## venno

So the latest way for a company to avoid the market and investors is to simply go into trading halt until the sun starts to shine again 

Makes me wonder how much cash they are churning through in the meantime, shades of OZL again (I got bitten on that one).


----------



## mastatrada

Nexus Energy Limited (“Nexus” or “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has reached agreement on the conditional sale of a 50% interest in the Longtom gas project (VIC/L29) (“Longtom”) and associated exploration permit (VIC/P54) to AED Oil Limited (“AED”). This transaction delivers Nexus near term funding and upon completion of the sale will provide new capital to fund activities under the revised strategy well into 2010.

The conditional sale of a 50% interest in Longtom to AED for A$155 million represents an opportunity for significant new funding from a part asset sale at a sensible price.

Nexus look to have saved themselves by giving up half of their Longtom project to AED. A clever move that will ensure an immediate payoff while allowing them to keep Crux for the future without having to sell it off at a reduced price now. I can't wait for trading to begin tomorow!


----------



## jancha

Well MTrader. Tradings begun alright with a big sell off. Oversold? Maybe an opportunity to buy more?


----------



## UPKA

jancha said:


> Well MTrader. Tradings begun alright with a big sell off. Oversold? Maybe an opportunity to buy more?




this kind of stock is always oversold at open, people have waited months for the suspension to be lifted. once opened, a lot of ppl just dumped it on market. IMO, NXS isnt in that bad of a shape, although it does have about $200m debt, but its current cash should cover it all, with the current MC, its assets r worth next to nothing... the problem now is find a decent farm in partner...


----------



## alex90

Not very happy with todays result, cant say I saw it comming.
Anyone know why sp suffered so bad?
Cheers


----------



## kkyyoo

Yea didnt see this coming too 

With Oil prices hitting months High @ $65 (compared to $40 at the start of trading halt), and agreement for sale of Longtom asset, the share should be driving up =='


----------



## Knobby22

Yea, I'm the same.

Bought at opening thinking there is a lot of upside, can't understand it but you can't argue with the market.


----------



## mastatrada

Yes there was a big sell off but you have to think that after a trading halt of that length there are bound to be a lot of people wanting out. I have been watching this stock for a while and was delighted to triple the amount of shares I already had at a bargain price of 31c.


----------



## alex90

It seems the long trading halt and the company's debt played a role in todays 19% drop. Although volume is high and there remain plenty of buyers so I'm not giving up on it yet


----------



## jman2007

mastatrada said:


> Yes there was a big sell off but you have to think that after a trading halt of that length there are bound to be a lot of people wanting out. I have been watching this stock for a while and was delighted to triple the amount of shares I already had at a bargain price of 31c.




That's my take on it as well,

Imo the company has done well in seemingly resurecting itself from the brink of oblivion, especially when some commentators (and myself) had practically given up on it. I think we will get a clearer idea which way NXS will run during the middle of next week, or perhaps later in the week. 

There will be huge numbers of depressed sellers with margin calls and other punters who have simply been waiting to get out for over two months - these people have no interest in seeing NXS progress to the production phase, this is simply dead wood that needs to be flushed from the share registry.


----------



## kkyyoo

anyway I'm holding to this stock till the production expected on July.. 

Gonna see what happened then.. 

but then again the 155M sale due to complete on September 09 .. 

really have to wait till end of year to see any significant progress with this company


----------



## venno

kkyyoo said:


> really have to wait till end of year to see any significant progress with this company




I hope not 

I think I'll cut my losses on this one on Fridays trading if nothing positive starts to come out.


----------



## GREENS

Does anyone have any idea of the current cash and debt position of Nexus excluding the $A155m transaction with AED? 

I think as Jman and others have pointed out, the assets of this company are still quite attractive it’s just the debt hanging over its head & the short term cash flow problems causing short sighted traders to dump the stock and move on. I see ROC exited its position as a substantial shareholder which wouldn’t have helped, but I think this was largely because of two things: 1. it was stated in ROC’s banking covenant that it must sell down its stake in NXS over a certain time frame and 2. ROC needing increased cash flow for operations and debt repayment.  

Cash flow from production of 5,000-5,500BOEPD (Net Nexus) around mid July should start to help alleviate some cash flow issues.  However Crux and the surrounding exploration upside still seems to be the company’s premier asset. With rising oil prices of late one would think there would be a lot more interest from potential JV partners and at a fairly decent price. Hopefully something comes of this very soon so the project can move out of its current state of limbo. 

Also what’s the go with the deal with Shell for block AC/L9? Anyone know the fine detail? From what I understand Shell receives the rights to the gas and any leftover condensate from 2020 onwards. Or does Nexus still retain the rights to the condensate but not the gas? 

Also not a bad price they received for a 50% stake in Longtom. I suppose the deal just hinges on AED receiving funding from the banks.


----------



## jackson8

GREENS said:


> Does anyone have any idea of the current cash and debt position of Nexus excluding the $A155m transaction with AED?
> 
> 
> Also not a bad price they received for a 50% stake in Longtom. I suppose the deal just hinges on AED receiving funding from the banks.




if you have a  look at aed's past performance it may not neccesarily have a positive outcome for nxs being in joint venture with them


----------



## GREENS

Thanks for the heads up Jackson but if you check out the AED thread you will see I was a sceptic from the start with them and posted my views along those lines. NXS as I would assume would still be the operator of the asset from both a production and technical sense and hence why I would not be concerned with AED as a JV partner. Just more concerned with other areas such as the contract with shell regarding licence AC/L9 and the current cash and debt position of the company.


----------



## jackson8

GREENS said:


> Thanks for the heads up Jackson but if you check out the AED thread you will see I was a sceptic from the start with them and posted my views along those lines. NXS as I would assume would still be the operator of the asset from both a production and technical sense and hence why I would not be concerned with AED as a JV partner. Just more concerned with other areas such as the contract with shell regarding licence AC/L9 and the current cash and debt position of the company.




just putting my two bits in as i was badly burnt with aed and have a relly who has been badly burnt by nxs

these days i am out of speccy stocks completely only stick with the big guns now


----------



## alex90

I think nexus is actually looking good.
In the short term we can look forward to the resolution of debt and cash flow issues as well as the beginning of production at Longtom. In the longer term the crux project and development of echuca shoals both provide reasons as to why this stock still excites me!
Lets wait and hope!:


----------



## Mc Gusto

Fair bit of trading today at the 30c mark. Interesting comments throughout this thread. I will be watching closely over the next couple of weeks

Thanks

Gusto


----------



## kkyyoo

Anyone see the interview with the MD Ian by corporate profile? 

 It seems that crux is the main asset for this company, and the Board is trying to avoid "fire sell" of crux. He said Crux reserve is around 3 - 4 times larger than Longtom.

he provide quite a reasonable explanation in relation why did he sell Longtom.

Patterson, on their Jan 09 report, value Longtom @ 257,000,000 

50% of that  = 128,500,000 ( a premium of $26,500,000 on the sale agreement). But I suspect the value should go up as the time to production nearing, so the sale of $155,000,000 is quite reasonable (not underpriced).

I think the big concern for this one is whether they have the capabilities of developing Crux which I suppose 3-4 times bigger then Longtom. 
And also the conditional sale to AED subject to many things (approval of Santos, AED getting its finance finalised, etc).


----------



## DowJones

Its good to hear that the company isn't doing capital raising citing that Nexus has a weak share price. Doing a SPP with current share price might decimate it.

Its encouraging to see that there is support still at 30c. Every dog has it day, including a similar company ROC oil (former partner in crime) - which I remembered traded at 30c (now 70c +)

Lets hope a similar fate is in store for Nexus.


----------



## alex90

"Every dog has it day"

Nexus seemed to have one of those days today!
First real positive sign from the refurbished company. Also the media release today seemed quite positive with immediate focus on Longtom in about a month set to raise the sp nicely


----------



## gooner

alex90 said:


> "Every dog has it day"
> 
> Nexus seemed to have one of those days today!
> First real positive sign from the refurbished company. Also the media release today seemed quite positive with immediate focus on Longtom in about a month set to raise the sp nicely




Was a very strong finish on high volume. So if DOW up strongly tonight, I would expect to see further gains tomorrow. Possibility of some takeover interest.

Hope so as I hold


----------



## jman2007

gooner said:


> Was a very strong finish on high volume. So if DOW up strongly tonight, I would expect to see further gains tomorrow. Possibility of some takeover interest.
> 
> Hope so as I hold




It's taken a little longer than I expected to weed the naysayer's and margin calls from the share registry, but from the last two days action we've clearly seen some buyers with appetite start to emerge. In hindsight, I should have reduced my buy-in average by picking up a handful at $1.30, but I'm still licking my wounds over this one a little, and I can't help but think there will be a few more twists and turns in this story yet. Absolutely key for NXS is to ensure a smooth run-up into production at Longtom, and the completion of the AED sale. Obviously the pending Transocean legal battle remains as a risk for the company.


----------



## gooner

jman2007 said:


> It's taken a little longer than I expected to weed the naysayer's and margin calls from the share registry, but from the last two days action we've clearly seen some buyers with appetite start to emerge. In hindsight, I should have reduced my buy-in average by picking up a handful at $1.30, but I'm still licking my wounds over this one a little, and I can't help but think there will be a few more twists and turns in this story yet. Absolutely key for NXS is to ensure a smooth run-up into production at Longtom, and the completion of the AED sale. Obviously the pending Transocean legal battle remains as a risk for the company.




Jman

Assume you meant to pick up a handful at $0.30 not $1.30?  Agree that there are some risks, particularly the ones you mentioned. However, with current price of oil, a fair valuation is upward of 80 cents so still plenty of upside left.  I was also hurt by this one. I topped up at 29 cents to average down to 52 cents so still well out of the money.


----------



## GREENS

jman2007 said:


> It's taken a little longer than I expected to weed the naysayer's and margin calls from the share registry, but from the last two days action we've clearly seen some buyers with appetite start to emerge.  Absolutely key for NXS is to ensure a smooth run-up into production at Longtom, and the completion of the AED sale. Obviously the pending Transocean legal battle remains as a risk for the company.




Agree jman. But as important as those events are I think the major re-rating of this company will come when a JV partner is found for Crux. This is the key to everything nearly. Will oil trading above $US70 for the first time this year, if it continues to rise or hold around these levels I reckon Nexus could have a JV partner by year’s end. This is where the real value of the company lies 

ROC’s dumping of huge heap of shares when it came out of the trading holt would have also been a major contributor to the downwards pressure. Now as you say everything seems to be weeded out. I am a big fan of the way management has gone about developing a highly in depth strategic plan over recent months to get the company back on track instead of reverting to what seems to be norm (or the easy way out for management who cannot be bothered to think),  which is large, highly dilutive equity raisings.


----------



## jman2007

gooner said:


> Jman
> 
> Assume you meant to pick up a handful at $0.30 not $1.30?  Agree that there are some risks, particularly the ones you mentioned. However, with current price of oil, a fair valuation is upward of 80 cents so still plenty of upside left.  I was also hurt by this one. I topped up at 29 cents to average down to 52 cents so still well out of the money.




Yes well picked up, 

I meant 30c, not $1.30 which is actually a lot closer to my buy-in price for this one! . I was never too top-heavy in NXS, but averaging down to 60-70c is something I'd consider atm, as it still looks like a reasonable buying opportunity.


----------



## stompa

Hi all
i am just starting out and looking to buy my first stock do you guys think NXS is still good to buy in at its current price at 43c as i have seen some of the other posts pridicting it to go to 80c
Thanks for any advice


----------



## jbocker

Hi Stompa
 I have read this thread and I would not touch NXS. Sounds like the company is going through the mill. I would do more research, I suspect that asset sales might be fire sale. Maybe it SP price has this factored in, but, its a no from me. Good Luck.


----------



## Sean K

stompa said:


> Hi all
> i am just starting out and looking to buy my first stock do you guys think NXS is still good to buy in at its current price at 43c as i have seen some of the other posts pridicting it to go to 80c
> Thanks for any advice



Please disregard any 'advice' and price targets and valuations that are not accompanied by some robust technical or fundamental analysis. Otherwise they are just guestimates and potentially dangerous. No one here is able to give you financial advice, only their lay opinion on the potential value of the stock. Good luck!


----------



## alex90

Haha Nexus is "going through the mill" is it jbocker?
Not sure about you, but new management, three massive projects in the pipeline and ridance of debt seems like progress enough for me to remain confident in this stock!


----------



## gooner

alex90 said:


> Haha Nexus is "going through the mill" is it jbocker?
> Not sure about you, but new management, three massive projects in the pipeline and ridance of debt seems like progress enough for me to remain confident in this stock!




New management? As far as I know, it is the same management that got us in this mess in the first place

I hold NXS


----------



## jackson8

gooner said:


> New management? As far as I know, it is the same management that got us in this mess in the first place
> 
> I hold NXS




and on top of that you have aed's management to deal with as well

not such a great picture painted there

note ' have been burnt with aed ' so may be a bit sceptical of their ability and future performance


----------



## mastatrada

jackson8 said:


> and on top of that you have aed's management to deal with as well
> 
> not such a great picture painted there
> 
> note ' have been burnt with aed ' so may be a bit sceptical of their ability and future performance




So nexus's and aed's temporary financial ills were all the fault of the management were they? That's like saying the recession in Australia was all Kevin Rudd's fault! They are just a share responding to market and environmental stimuli, there's no point getting all emotional about them and mistrusting the people in charge.


----------



## jbocker

alex90 said:


> Haha Nexus is "going through the mill" is it jbocker?
> Not sure about you, but new management, three massive projects in the pipeline and ridance of debt seems like progress enough for me to remain confident in this stock!




Hopefully it has already gone through the mill, and its price might be good (ie not much more downside). Its just not for me yet, dont know if I would make it my first stock to buy at this time (re Stompa's query), but could suit Stompa's risk profile. Sincerely hope NXS does well and you good people have a great investment.


----------



## gooner

mastatrada said:


> So nexus's and aed's temporary financial ills were all the fault of the management were they? That's like saying the recession in Australia was all Kevin Rudd's fault! They are just a share responding to market and environmental stimuli, there's no point getting all emotional about them and mistrusting the people in charge.




mastatrada

Nexus entered into drilling rig contracts that it could not afford to pay for. It is basic financial management to ensure you have funding locked down before signing on the dotted line. Anyone who buys a house without first having finance is an idiot - again basic financial management.

Personally am waiting for a reasonable exit point and then I am out of there as I do not trust management.

Hold NXS


----------



## jman2007

gooner said:


> mastatrada
> 
> Nexus entered into drilling rig contracts that it could not afford to pay for. It is basic financial management to ensure you have funding locked down before signing on the dotted line. Anyone who buys a house without first having finance is an idiot - again basic financial management.
> 
> Personally am waiting for a reasonable exit point and then I am out of there as I do not trust management.
> 
> Hold NXS




gooner,

As is my understanding, Transocean terminated the contract themselves, NXS's angle is that they vigorously dispute Transocean's right to have terminated the contract. Add into the mix Sedco Forex's damages claim against NXS, and we suddenly have a very confusing and complicated legal battle brewing. The Transocean Legend was booked for about 90 days from memory, being charged out at about $450K per day. 

As far as the management is concerned, they did a reasonable job in extricating NXS from potentially an even worse situation imo. The core value of Crux has been preserved, and they achieved a fair, if not fantastic, value for the part sale of Longtom. 

But not out out of the woods yet by any means.


----------



## gooner

jman2007 said:


> gooner,
> 
> As is my understanding, Transocean terminated the contract themselves, NXS's angle is that they vigorously dispute Transocean's right to have terminated the contract. Add into the mix Sedco Forex's damages claim against NXS, and we suddenly have a very confusing and complicated legal battle brewing. The Transocean Legend was booked for about 90 days from memory, being charged out at about $450K per day.
> 
> As far as the management is concerned, they did a reasonable job in extricating NXS from potentially an even worse situation imo. The core value of Crux has been preserved, and they achieved a fair, if not fantastic, value for the part sale of Longtom.
> 
> But not out out of the woods yet by any means.




jman2007

Fair comments. Sedco terminated on the basis of Nexus being unable to perform, presumably due to lack of funds. Certainly, they did not have enough funds to pay for the rig without a sale of Crux or Longtom - IMO dodgy to rely on asset sales for ongoing costs.  However, I agree the outcome could have been worse.

I actually bought some more shares at 29 cents which averaged my holding cost down to 51 cents, although I also sold some pre trading halt at a loss, so my "real holding cost" is somewhere in the 60 cent range. I think I have a reasonable chance of exiting at a profit.  Have not decided on my exit price yet - problem for me is trying to put a value on Crux. Hopefully, there is a partial sale to put a value on it for me. Or a takeover..........

Hold NXS


----------



## jackson8

mastatrada said:


> So nexus's and aed's temporary financial ills were all the fault of the management were they? That's like saying the recession in Australia was all Kevin Rudd's fault! They are just a share responding to market and environmental stimuli, there's no point getting all emotional about them and mistrusting the people in charge.




my comments are more aimed at aed

have a read through the aed thread. i am not the only one to have little trust in their management

too much to write here the thread says it all


----------



## stock nub

jman2007 said:


> gooner,
> 
> As is my understanding, Transocean terminated the contract themselves, NXS's angle is that they vigorously dispute Transocean's right to have terminated the contract. Add into the mix Sedco Forex's damages claim against NXS, and we suddenly have a very confusing and complicated legal battle brewing. The Transocean Legend was booked for about 90 days from memory, being charged out at about $450K per day.
> 
> As far as the management is concerned, they did a reasonable job in extricating NXS from potentially an even worse situation imo. The core value of Crux has been preserved, and they achieved a fair, if not fantastic, value for the part sale of Longtom.
> 
> But not out out of the woods yet by any means.




Hey never heard of the Sedco Forex damages.

Can you explain further what these are?? Was there an announcement about these?


----------



## jman2007

stock nub said:


> Hey never heard of the Sedco Forex damages.
> 
> Can you explain further what these are?? Was there an announcement about these?




From what I can gather, Sedco Forex is a subsidiary of Transocean Inc.

The following statement I found on another forum, which reported that it formed part of a presentation that Ian Tachos gave to a broker from Patterson's Securities last Friday. Obviously I cannot vouch for the cedibility of the information, but it sounds pretty legit to me:

NXS believes that the cancellation of the TOL was under "mirky circumstances" with Transocean using NXS' cash flow issues as an excuse to cancel the contract when in actual fact they turned the ship around and headed back to Indo for repairs, as the ship was not compliant with Australian maritime laws and would not have been allowed to operate in Aussie waters. Now that they have sent the ship to KAR and Conocco the maximum liability would be up to around 30 days.


----------



## jman2007

gooner said:


> Fair comments. Sedco terminated on the basis of Nexus being unable to perform, presumably due to lack of funds. Certainly, they did not have enough funds to pay for the rig without a sale of Crux or Longtom - IMO dodgy to rely on asset sales for ongoing costs.  However, I agree the outcome could have been worse.




gooner,

Note that the appointment to the NXS Board of Michael Arnett comes as no surprise either imo, as he was a "former partner of International Law Firm Deacons where he practiced in the oil and gas sector for many years... He was also the President, Vice President, Treasurer and Secretary of the Australian Mining and Petroleum Law Association (WA Branch). (Quotes from NXS market release 28/05/09). 

So probably not a bad guy to have come out and bat for you , let's hope he can also read Sedco the full riot act!


----------



## gooner

According to the recent presentations, Nexus is due to become a producer very soon.  This might provide a bit of a boost to the share price.

However, I think a farm out of Crux is key as this monetises the assets and provides a good base to form a value of the overall company.

Hold NXS


----------



## mastatrada

well gooner, I stand corrected to some extent in my defence of the nexus management. Letting some stupid contractual dispute hold up the Longtom project (todays announcement) for 3 weeks when it is so close to completion has to take some very special individuals indeed.


----------



## gooner

mastatrada said:


> well gooner, I stand corrected to some extent in my defence of the nexus management. Letting some stupid contractual dispute hold up the Longtom project (todays announcement) for 3 weeks when it is so close to completion has to take some very special individuals indeed.




mastatrada

it appears they are not competent - a takeover by a competent management team would be welcome - STO, WPL, anyone.

I am only still in because I can't see them destroying too much more value and assets are way undervalued. Hoping someone else will see it and buy them out.


----------



## UPKA

mind u guys that NXS is negotiating with other parties for a farmin on the Crux project. At the moment Shell is probably the most likely buyer to buy out Crux project. Compare to the buy volume last month, the sell down is rather small, the drop in SP is due to the lack in buyers. I think it's just a matter of time before the farmin/takeover announcement comes out...

disclosure: I do hold NXS.


----------



## kkyyoo

so what's happening at today's trade

Some institutional investor bought in? 

Went up 17% today ...


----------



## chiraag

Looks like there's some speculation that a partner for Crux has been found - there's an article on bloomberg (I can't post links since I haven't made enough posts)


----------



## UPKA

chiraag said:


> Looks like there's some speculation that a partner for Crux has been found - there's an article on bloomberg (I can't post links since I haven't made enough posts)





FYI:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5PjMFCOMQ8I

(i need 100 letters for this reply)


----------



## johannlo

Nevermind bloomberg, look at the volumes traded. Something is most definitely up and if you've looked at NXS you would know that they're sitting on a lot more value than the SP indicates, with all the rumours flying around lately of farmouts, JVs, takeovers what have you, something is definitely up (or its one helluva expensive pump and dump)


----------



## laurie

Well my gut feeling told me "what the heck" got on @.345 early this morning so happy with the 20%+ gain at close don't forget AED is having problems with Puffin could they play a part Crux they still have $$$$$ from the 60% sale to Sinopec 

cheers laurie


----------



## shoe crew

Laurie,
nice entry at 34.5c...
Peter Strachan wrote up on NXS in a recent market report, and there is a whole lot of value in this company behind Crux, and abit to get the tounge wet with Longtom production looming in the air


----------



## Korban

Word is that these boys will start gas production in the next 2 weeks. There should only be one way the shares should head


----------



## Knobby22

Do to allthe minor problems at Nexus the price hasn't risen with the market over the last 3 months.

As mentioned, partners should be found and Longtom producing gas in the near future which will take a lot of uncertainty out of the stock.

I am therefore very happy to take up my rights.

K22


----------



## gooner

Knobby22 said:


> Do to allthe minor problems at Nexus the price hasn't risen with the market over the last 3 months.
> 
> As mentioned, partners should be found and Longtom producing gas in the near future which will take a lot of uncertainty out of the stock.
> 
> I am therefore very happy to take up my rights.
> 
> K22




"minor problems"

Lose a joint venture partner

Share price absolutely tanked

Suspended for months

Legal claim for cancellation of contract

Longtom continously delayed

Loss of CFO

Crux drilling cancelled

Dodgy preferential share issuance

AED deal fell over due to NXS incompetence

Would be interested in your view on what a "major issue" is?

I hold but only until I can get out at a semi decent price


----------



## Bigukraine

gooner said:


> "minor problems"
> 
> Lose a joint venture partner
> 
> Share price absolutely tanked
> 
> Suspended for months
> 
> Legal claim for cancellation of contract
> 
> Longtom continously delayed
> 
> Loss of CFO
> 
> Crux drilling cancelled
> 
> Dodgy preferential share issuance
> 
> AED deal fell over due to NXS incompetence
> 
> Would be interested in your view on what a "major issue" is?
> 
> I hold but only until I can get out at a semi decent price




Hi Gooner,
Good example's of what went wrong(and is going wrong) for this company. todays drop to around .30c flat is a concern for a company that is supposed to start delivery of their gas from longtom in a couple of weeks time. Looks to me the market is losing conf. with the mgt imo and is the reason i sold out after the share issue. Really scratching my head if i should take up my entitlement. will watch share price closley over next couple of day's:iagree:


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## Knobby22

gooner said:


> "minor problems"
> 
> Lose a joint venture partner
> 
> Share price absolutely tanked
> 
> Suspended for months
> 
> Legal claim for cancellation of contract
> 
> Longtom continously delayed
> 
> Loss of CFO
> 
> Crux drilling cancelled
> 
> Dodgy preferential share issuance
> 
> AED deal fell over due to NXS incompetence
> 
> Would be interested in your view on what a "major issue" is?
> 
> I hold but only until I can get out at a semi decent price




We are not talking history of share price, we are talking now. You have to ignore the old share price and look at where it will go from here.

They did lose a joint venture partner which is major and is reflected in the share price however a new partner will be found. At least management didn't panic and lose long term value for the shareholders.

Things have gone wrong but no real value has been lost, just time. The greed of the Viking partners caused part of the problems with Crux and we don't need that AED deal anymore imo. 

It always looks darkest before dawn. We shall see where we are in a year. My opinion is the only way is up.


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## jman2007

Several things keeping a lid on the sp at the moment. 

The ongoing and threatening prospect of a prolonged and expensive legal battle with Transocean Inc is one, plus NXS's inability in being able to complete *anything* by the agreed deadline. This has resulted in the absolutely laughable situation of NXS having to return the $35M deposit to AED, who must surely be shaking their heads, because I sure am! 

The last 6 months have been a mixture of some good decisions (i.e preserving the value if Crux), and some real bungling from the NXS management.

Hypothetically speaking, if I was offered 70c ps for Crux, and 20c ps for Longtom, I would definitely accept, cut my losses and move on folks.


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## Knobby22

90c valuation, jman. That's good.
You will be taking up your rights then. You don't want to be diluted.


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## laurie

Remember wealth is transferred from the impatient to the patient and it helps to able to play a poker hand or two 

cheers laurie


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## Chaka1988

How come the nexus' sp didnt rise by much today after the gas production announcement? 
I thought it would go up by at least 8-10%...


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## milothedog

It was already factored in.  The company announced last week that the pipeline was connected and should flow within a week.  Today confirmed that.


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## Chaka1988

Is there any chance for the share price to go higher next week because of the income from the gas production?


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## laurie

Chaka1988 said:


> Is there any chance for the share price to go higher next week because of the income from the gas production?




Income = Debt+cost+taxes = profit                                                                               

cheers laurie


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## Knobby22

At the Emirates Stakes today and met an oil guy I see there every year.
He reckons Nexus has a great future now the gas is running.

The danger is still getting a partner for Crux. When and if that occurs, I expect a major rerating.


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## GREENS

Spot on Knobby it’s definitely got the goods in the bag just a matter of getting everything up and running smoothly. The first test for a re-rating (considerably smaller than Crux re-rating) will be getting the Longtom project up and running close to expectations over the coming quarters and maintaining that level of production. Second test for a re-rating (potentially large) is finding a JV partner for Crux at a reasonable price and getting development going a-sap. However this company does not come without its risks given the fact NXS may not be able to get production at Longtom towards expected flow rates, may not be able to find a JV partner for Crux at a reasonable price in the near term and they have current litigation outstanding in regards to a rig dispute. Hence one needs to consider their risk/reward preference.


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## McCoy Pauley

Interesting - NXS made its managing director redundant yesterday.  Ian Tchacos had his employment terminated with immediate effect and NXS is in the process of a global search for a new CEO.

ASX announcement - http://www.nexusenergy.com.au/assets/97/Files/IZT Draft 21Dec2009.pdf


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## kkyyoo

today NXS just hit its new lowest SP ($0.275) in more than a year =_='

any thoughts whats causing the selloff ?


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## SilverRanger

I don't think the recent sell-offs are NXS specific, since a number of other energy explorers are also suffering, it looks like a good buy at current lows...


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## WiseMum

I agree... and am taking the opportunity to up my holding.  I think this will be one of those stocks that will bounce strongly when the market receives some clear recovery incentives and takes oil/energy with it.


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## kkyyoo

looks like the SP keep dropping after the Long term support was broken... 

I wonder whats happening? hit $0.225 today which is the lowest in a couple of years


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## b4subi05

anyone know what might be happening in the background with this one?
Ive noticed a recent move up including some late late buying this afternoon.


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## kkyyoo

Some updates on this Company based on my OPINION:





Potential upturn, but need to wait for confirmation. 

Southern Cross Broker Report May 2010

Southern cross suggest to buy on may @ $0.28, but the SP dropped below $0.200. If you bought some at that time, would've gained around 40% by now since SP has recovered a bit, however might want to wait for further confirmations on how the price action going to be for some more days to come.  Definitely gonna buy some if it breaks (with good volume) through the $0.300 resistance.

Some developments that need some attentions are Richard Cottee (Former QGC boss) joins NXS as the chief and the Sept Deadline for the installation of Mercury removal filter on the Longtom Project. 

Any other thoughts regarding this one?


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## lemontree

A whole bunch of trading resulting in a spike in sp and now a trading halt. I wonder what the trading halt may pertain to...


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## noie

lemontree said:


> A whole bunch of trading resulting in a spike in sp and now a trading halt. I wonder what the trading halt may pertain to...




Takeover talk in the media. 

nice spike in trading 36079612

announcement released "uninformed basis"


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## noie

lemontree said:


> A whole bunch of trading resulting in a spike in sp and now a trading halt. I wonder what the trading halt may pertain to...






noie said:


> Takeover talk in the media.
> 
> nice spike in trading 36079612
> 
> announcement released "uninformed basis"




Nexus, just denied the Article from the Australian 

(i would link it but i cant get to the Website just now)

It was regarding Shell in a takeover.


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## kkyyoo

When I logged in I was like "holy cow what the hell happened?" 

can't find anything in relation to any takeover? 

can you post some links? 

thanks


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## AngusSmart

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...eover-bid-rumour/story-e6frg9ef-1225900248883


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## Knobby22

Finally the price has broken out.
Is a takeover happening or have they got a new partner?

Hopefully we will hear some news soon.


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## SilverRanger

Knobby22 said:


> Finally the price has broken out.
> Is a takeover happening or have they got a new partner?
> 
> Hopefully we will hear some news soon.




Another 20% to go to the rumoured takeover price, but I will be happy to take profit somewhere before that. At the moment it does look somewhat overbought (on both RSI and Bollinger bands)


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## laurie

Gas flow must be very close to starting up again.Maybe they are testing the flow rate and to see if the filter dose work before full production 

laurie


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## laurie

Well something is up! Credit Swiss has increased their holding to well over 90M shares, price is now 47c, either a Take Over or a Crux deal with Shell JV next week may well tell

laurie


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## Knobby22

They may know something.
The price support defintely suggests that something is in the offing.


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## dandd

Charlie Aitkin, Under the Southern Cross, reiterated a strong buy on this on 6 Oct with a price target of 55c.  The stock rallied strongly over the next few days.  It seems to be what typically happens these days following his recommendations. I'm holding a small parcel and will watch things unfold.


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## dandd

Trading halt pending announcement of a capital raising.  Would have preferred pending announcement of a takeover


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## laurie

Well something is going on and where is the ASX police! it hit a high of .535 on Friday and the way its going up it could see .60c by next week unless of course this is being manipulated to allow accumulating for either a T/O or J/V where Richard Cottee is involved anything can happen normally in favor of the shareholder 

laurie


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## stokie

Morning all, big reader on this forum, not much of a poster however...

Anyone still following this stock?

Fair drop in price since since the late November high, due in part to a substantial holder sell off if I'm not correct??

Seems to have lost a bit of steam, no announcements for a while with the price creeping down -  anyone got any explanations/thoughs as to what's occurring?


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## 1nvstor

stokie said:


> Morning all, big reader on this forum, not much of a poster however...
> 
> Anyone still following this stock?
> 
> Fair drop in price since since the late November high, due in part to a substantial holder sell off if I'm not correct??
> 
> Seems to have lost a bit of steam, no announcements for a while with the price creeping down -  anyone got any explanations/thoughs as to what's occurring?




Maybe just a bit quiet leading up to Christmas. Looking forward to a good year with them though.


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## Knobby22

Rumours of a deal.
Rising oil price.

We will get there.


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## Knobby22

Raising to derisk the company announced today.
I am very happy with this CEOs thinking. Confidence is rising.


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## stokie

Confidence is definately rising.

Opened quite well today after the trading halt, sellers drying up and buyers queuing up, watching with great interest.


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## kkyyoo

any thoughts of the 50% drop in the SP?
Cant believe that Richard Cottee Resigned...


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## Knobby22

I sold a lot of them but still have some , damn it.
I wonder what has happened for him to resign so suddenly.


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## snsdmonkey

Thoughts on the recent rallies for NXS?


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## laurie

Like to think its Oil & Gas related but it seems to be board related due to RC EGM attempt to come back into NXS


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## Knobby22

One thing for sure. Its got to be one of the most volatile share prices on the ASX.

Everyone is guessing - Is the cut in deal to take place?
How bad is the court case going to be?
Was the CEO right and the board are idiots or is the board right and the CEO was selling the company short?

I am really lost with this one.


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## pavilion103

Nice base on this one. Volume tapering off. Accumulation?


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## pavilion103

Low risk entry yesterday at 0.145 with a stop at 0.14. 

Only a very small position.


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## Boggo

pavilion103 said:


> Low risk entry yesterday at 0.145 with a stop at 0.14.




Nice work 

A bit of a potential resistance area now but 'in market' depth is looking positive.

(click to expand)


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## pavilion103

This is my best one of the last few weeks!


Bought .145 , stop .14
Current .19

9R profit atm    Only small position though


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## wombat40

The chart looks really good, Thou im in it from my mechanical system. Dont know anything about the company..in it for the long run..current stop at .115

cheer


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## Boggo

pavilion103 said:


> This is my best one of the last few weeks!
> 
> 
> Bought .145 , stop .14
> Current .19
> 
> 9R profit atm    Only small position though




Gotta love these patterns pav 




wombat40 said:


> The chart looks really good, Thou im in it from my mechanical system. *Dont know anything about the company*..in it for the long run..current stop at .115
> 
> cheer




Don't need to know anything about them wombat, it just clouds the issue and wastes time


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## Kalenn

Looks like it's found a bottom again.  Credit Suisse subs notice from yesterday seems to indicate that they are accumulating big time. 30 million net buy since 20th of December.


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## Boggo

Fred108 said:


> Looks like it's found a bottom again.  Credit Suisse subs notice from yesterday seems to indicate that they are accumulating big time. 30 million net buy since 20th of December.




I jumped ship at 16.5, need to see it get back above 17 or 17.5 to get me interested again.


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## skc

It's very rare to see a company's shareholder essentially committing corporate suicide, but there you have it with NXS. 

Seven's group threw a lifeline out to buy it for 2c and take on all its debt, yet it got voted down by holders. Despite the board repeatedly assure holders that NXS will have to appoint administrators if the scheme is voted down.

May be too many holders are sitting at 90% loss to care about the last 10%... but it's still a perfectly good $26m of equity being thrown out.

A great demonstration of irrational behaviour when you mix money and emotion.


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## ROE

skc said:


> It's very rare to see a company's shareholder essentially committing corporate suicide, but there you have it with NXS.
> 
> Seven's group threw a lifeline out to buy it for 2c and take on all its debt, yet it got voted down by holders. Despite the board repeatedly assure holders that NXS will have to appoint administrators if the scheme is voted down.
> 
> May be too many holders are sitting at 90% loss to care about the last 10%... but it's still a perfectly good $26m of equity being thrown out.
> 
> A great demonstration of irrational behaviour when you mix money and emotion.




Seven failed to factor in the irrational of human psychology and behaviour, damn I read it in the book and now I see it happen in real life play out in the corporate world 


it goes something like this.
our irrational behaviour dislike low ball offered even though that is the best out come for both parties. when you feel you being ripped off human irrational behaviour prefer they get nothing in order for the other guy not getting a bargain.

An experiment pitch 2 people together with specific instructions and rules

a professor give them $20 and let one guy make an offer to split the money
if both parties agree they walk away with what ever spit they agree to, if one doesn't agree none 
of them get the money.

when the professor instruct the person doing the split at 50% 50% they all agree to split the cash
but when it comes to 80% 20% or 90% 10% ... majority of them forgo the cash and complained
it is an unfair split and they feel the other guy is ripping them off  but the logical thing is accept whatever it is being offered as something is better than zero 

Look like nexus shareholder feel they being played low ball and feel seven is ripping them off
so I am not going to give you control of the company on the cheap  I will go down with it hahaha


----------



## skyQuake

ROE said:


> when the professor instruct the person doing the split at 50% 50% they all agree to split the cash
> but when it comes to 80% 20% or 90% 10% ... majority of them forgo the cash and complained
> it is an unfair split and they feel the other guy is ripping them off  but the logical thing is accept whatever it is being offered as something is better than zero




Except in this case, the professor has agreed to give any untaken money to the other guy in the end anyway :


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## VSntchr

ROE said:


> Seven failed to factor in the irrational of human psychology and behaviour, *damn I read it in the book* and now I see it happen in real life play out in the corporate world




Was this perhaps "Sway - The irresistible pull of irrational behaviour"? You put me onto this a couple of years ago and I thought it was a great read


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## ROE

VSntchr said:


> Was this perhaps "Sway - The irresistible pull of irrational behaviour"? You put me onto this a couple of years ago and I thought it was a great read




yeah that may be it ..fascinating stuff human irrational behaviour 
most people under estimate human behaviour, but I believe this is Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett
speciality and that how they manage to make deal and pick stuff cheap year in year out.

and I am also a better investor after reading a half a dozen or so on these topic


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## Huskar

ROE said:


> yeah that may be it ..fascinating stuff human irrational behaviour
> most people under estimate human behaviour, but I believe this is Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett
> speciality and that how they manage to make deal and pick stuff cheap year in year out.
> 
> and I am also a better investor after reading a half a dozen or so on these topic




I agree ROE the study of human behaviour is both fascinating and financial rewarding


----------



## DeepState

Huskar said:


> I agree ROE the study of human behaviour is both fascinating and financial rewarding




If of interest, the observation in this thread relates to:

+ Game Theory
+ The Ultimatum Game
+ The Machiguenga Ultimatum Game
+ The Insula Cortex structure within our brains.

In a repeater game, this behavior is actually rational.  It just looks crazy in a single shot.


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## System

On January 7th, 2015, Nexus Energy Limited (NXS) was removed from the ASX's official list following effectuation of the deed of company arrangement entered into between the Company and its creditors and the transfer of all the issued shares in the Company to SGH Energy (No 2) Pty Ltd.


----------

