# Yearly XAO Prediction Thread



## systematic (31 December 2018)

Glad investoboy came last!  As for me...




We having another punt?


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2018)

systematic said:


> We having another punt?



Why not, lets go for it.


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 December 2018)

Bill M said:


> Why not, lets go for it.



I’ll say 4000 at the end of 2019.


----------



## SirRumpole (31 December 2018)

6100


----------



## Struzball (31 December 2018)

Bill M said:


> Why not, lets go for it.



5100


----------



## PZ99 (31 December 2018)

6800. We should go through another 3 prime ministers by then


----------



## peter2 (31 December 2018)

6139 thanks


----------



## Darc Knight (31 December 2018)

4800 pls and thank you Bill


----------



## tinhat (31 December 2018)

I'll stick with my guess for 2018:

6780


----------



## kid hustlr (31 December 2018)

6000 again

Last year I said up then down. This year I’ll say down then up


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> 6000 again
> 
> Last year I said up then down. This year I’ll say down then up



I agree, down and then up and I'm same as this years @ 6341.


----------



## Darc Knight (31 December 2018)

Geez, some high numbers here. Some people been indulging on New Years Eve I take it 
What about @sptrawler ?


----------



## sptrawler (31 December 2018)

I'll give 6375 a run.


----------



## macca (31 December 2018)

I think it will stagnate so 5700 from me


----------



## qldfrog (1 January 2019)

5300 then  up 5800 and finishing below 4500 in December


----------



## $20shoes (1 January 2019)

I'll have to be a "glass half empty" guy this year. 4380 for me.


----------



## IFocus (1 January 2019)

Will the market climb a wall of worry or crash due to uncertainty............tosses coin............rattle, rattle the answer low of 4300 ending 5200........ish


----------



## jjbinks (1 January 2019)

I think investoboy was unlucky but might have better luck next year 
So I'll say 3000.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (1 January 2019)

6500


----------



## MrChow (1 January 2019)

I think we'll get back to 6400 by mid year.

While I anticipate that to be the peak for a while I don't think the major capitulation happens in 2019 so it may finish at around 5400 signifying at least the start of it.


----------



## tinhat (2 January 2019)

@joe, @Bill M you might want to split the 2019 XAO tips into a new thread and set a deadline for entries?



Darc Knight said:


> Geez, some high numbers here. Some people been indulging on New Years Eve I take it
> What about @sptrawler ?




I am absolutely certain about my prediction that the XAO will reach 6780. It's the timing I'm not so sure about.


----------



## Darc Knight (2 January 2019)

tinhat said:


> @joe, @Bill M you might want to split the 2019 XAO tips into a new thread and set a deadline for entries?
> 
> 
> 
> I am absolutely certain about my prediction that the XAO will reach 6780. It's the timing I'm not so sure about.




By timing you do mean 2019 calendar year?


----------



## tinhat (2 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> By timing you do mean 2019 calendar year?



Maybe 2019, maybe 2029. I can barely read a chart let alone the tea leaves.


----------



## Darc Knight (2 January 2019)

tinhat said:


> Maybe 2019, maybe 2029. I can barely read a chart let alone the tea leaves.




OK, if that's our timeframe, I'll say 2025


----------



## tinhat (2 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> OK, if that's our timeframe, I'll say 2025




I accept your side bet. Let's see whether the XAO is closer to 6780 on 31 Dec 2019 or 31 Dec 2025. 31 Dec 2022 is the mid-point.


----------



## Darc Knight (2 January 2019)

tinhat said:


> I accept your side bet. Let's see whether the XAO is closer to 6780 on 31 Dec 2019 or 31 Dec 2025. 31 Dec 2022 is the mid-point.




2022 lol. Australia will still be in Recession or just coming out most likely Mr Squiggle. Closer to 2025 than 2022.


----------



## systematic (2 January 2019)

Always the optimist...

*6851
*
Nothing more esoteric than going for a 20% year


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2019)

qldfrog said:


> 5300 then  up 5800 and finishing below 4500 in December



So I put you down for 4500 unless you clarify, ok?


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2019)

Entries close @ 2359 Hours EDST Sunday 13th January 2019.

OK, so get your educated guesses/punts in. So far we have:

jjbinks.......... 3000
Smurf1976.... 4000
$20shoes...... 4380
qldfrog.......... 4500
Darc Knight... 4800
Struzball....... 5100
IFocus.......... 5200
MrChow........ 5400
macca.......... 5700
kid hustler....  6000
SirRumpole... 6100
peter2.......... 6139
Bill M........... 6341
sptrawler...... 6375
Toyota Lexen 6500
tinhat.......... 6780
PZ99........... 6800
Systematic... 6851


----------



## greggles (2 January 2019)

I'm in for 6270 thanks Bill.


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2019)

greggles said:


> I'm in for 6270 thanks Bill.



Thanks, added.

jjbinks.......... 3000
Smurf1976.... 4000
$20shoes...... 4380
qldfrog.......... 4500
Darc Knight... 4800
Struzball....... 5100
IFocus.......... 5200
MrChow........ 5400
macca.......... 5700
kid hustler.... 6000
SirRumpole... 6100
peter2.......... 6139
greggles....... 6270
Bill M........... 6341
sptrawler...... 6375
Toyota Lexen 6500
tinhat.......... 6780
PZ99........... 6800
Systematic... 6851


----------



## explod (2 January 2019)

I feel a bloodbath afoot so put me in for
2300 thanks Bill


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2019)

explod said:


> I feel a bloodbath afoot so put me in for
> 2300 thanks Bill



Crikey mate, that's pretty radical. Gold at it's all time highest in Aussie dollars right now, maybe the big the global reset?.

Thanks, added.

explod.......... 2300
jjbinks.......... 3000
Smurf1976.... 4000
$20shoes...... 4380
qldfrog.......... 4500
Darc Knight... 4800
Struzball....... 5100
IFocus.......... 5200
MrChow........ 5400
macca.......... 5700
kid hustler.... 6000
SirRumpole... 6100
peter2.......... 6139
greggles....... 6270
Bill M........... 6341
sptrawler...... 6375
Toyota Lexen 6500
tinhat.......... 6780
PZ99........... 6800
Systematic... 6851


----------



## InsvestoBoy (2 January 2019)

Reloading 3000 from last year please.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (2 January 2019)

Good on ya billM for running the comp


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2019)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Reloading 3000 from last year please.



Exactly the same as jjbinks? He already picked it?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (2 January 2019)

Bill M said:


> Exactly the same as jjbinks? He already picked it?




He picked my pick though! I'm willing to share...


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2019)

InsvestoBoy said:


> He picked my pick though! I'm willing to share...




Ok, no problems, added.

explod.......... 2300
jjbinks.......... 3000
InsvestoBoy... 3000
Smurf1976.... 4000
$20shoes...... 4380
qldfrog.......... 4500
Darc Knight... 4800
Struzball....... 5100
IFocus.......... 5200
MrChow........ 5400
macca.......... 5700
kid hustler.... 6000
SirRumpole... 6100
peter2.......... 6139
greggles....... 6270
Bill M........... 6341
sptrawler...... 6375
Toyota Lexen 6500
tinhat.......... 6780
PZ99........... 6800
Systematic... 6851


----------



## Darc Knight (2 January 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Good on ya billM for running the comp




^this. Good onya Bill 

Funniest thread I've seen in sometime. We got a 2300, anyone wanna go 7000?


----------



## jbocker (2 January 2019)

Hi Bill M if not too late I did spruik that it will be approx the same as end of 2018 on another thread (2019 Predictions)..
I will make it 5575
Thanks but Ok if I am too late.


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2019)

jbocker said:


> Hi Bill M if not too late I did spruik that it will be approx the same as end of 2018 on another thread (2019 Predictions)..
> I will make it 5575
> Thanks but Ok if I am too late.




That's all good. Entries close Sunday 13th Jan @ 2359 Hours EDST. Gives people time to enter. Anyhow, added.

explod.......... 2300
jjbinks.......... 3000
InsvestoBoy... 3000
Smurf1976.... 4000
$20shoes...... 4380
qldfrog.......... 4500
Darc Knight... 4800
Struzball....... 5100
IFocus.......... 5200
MrChow........ 5400
jbocker......... 5575
macca.......... 5700
kid hustler.... 6000
SirRumpole... 6100
peter2.......... 6139
greggles....... 6270
Bill M........... 6341
sptrawler...... 6375
Toyota Lexen 6500
tinhat.......... 6780
PZ99........... 6800
Systematic... 6851


----------



## qldfrog (3 January 2019)

Y


Bill M said:


> So I put you down for 4500 unless you clarify, ok?



yes target 4500 December 2019


----------



## Trendnomics (3 January 2019)

I would find this thread even more interesting, if each tip had an outcome reason (5 words or less).

Here is my tip with outcome reason: *4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)*.

Everyone post your outcome reasons (5 words or less), so Bill M can add them to the list.


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2019)

Trendnomics said:


> I would find this thread even more interesting, if each tip had an outcome reason (5 words or less).
> 
> Here is my tip with outcome reason: *4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)*.
> 
> Everyone post your outcome reasons (5 words or less), so Bill M can add them to the list.




Thanks, added. About 5 words or less, you can it add it if you want but you don't have too, just trying to keep it simple.

explod.......... 2300
jjbinks.......... 3000
InsvestoBoy... 3000
Smurf1976.... 4000
$20shoes...... 4380
qldfrog.......... 4500
Darc Knight... 4800
Trednomics...  4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Struzball....... 5100
IFocus.......... 5200
MrChow........ 5400
jbocker......... 5575
macca.......... 5700
kid hustler.... 6000
SirRumpole... 6100
peter2.......... 6139
greggles....... 6270
Bill M........... 6341
sptrawler...... 6375
Toyota Lexen 6500
tinhat.......... 6780
PZ99........... 6800
Systematic... 6851


----------



## Logique (3 January 2019)

5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)

Thanks Bill


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2019)

Logique said:


> 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
> 
> Thanks Bill




Thanks, added.

explod.......... 2300
jjbinks.......... 3000
InsvestoBoy... 3000
Smurf1976.... 4000
$20shoes...... 4380
qldfrog.......... 4500
Darc Knight... 4800
Trednomics... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Struzball....... 5100
IFocus.......... 5200
MrChow........ 5400
Logique........ 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
jbocker......... 5575
macca.......... 5700
kid hustler.... 6000
SirRumpole... 6100
peter2.......... 6139
greggles....... 6270
Bill M........... 6341
sptrawler...... 6375
Toyota Lexen 6500
tinhat.......... 6780
PZ99........... 6800
Systematic... 6851


----------



## Darc Knight (3 January 2019)

4800 (sustained bear market, occassionial rallies). Love your work Bill


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> 4800 (sustained bear market, occassionial rallies). Love your work Bill



Thanks, added.

explod.......... 2300
jjbinks.......... 3000
InsvestoBoy... 3000
Smurf1976.... 4000
$20shoes...... 4380
qldfrog.......... 4500
Darc Knight... 4800 (sustained bear market, occassionial rallies)
Trednomics... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Struzball....... 5100
IFocus.......... 5200
MrChow........ 5400
Logique........ 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
jbocker......... 5575
macca.......... 5700
kid hustler.... 6000
SirRumpole... 6100
peter2.......... 6139
greggles....... 6270
Bill M........... 6341 
sptrawler...... 6375
Toyota Lexen 6500
tinhat.......... 6780
PZ99........... 6800
Systematic... 6851


----------



## jbocker (3 January 2019)

Bill M said:


> jbocker......... 5575



My five words: Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction

Expanding a little (from reading my tea leaves*) World markets general flat due to/fro trade wars, Aus Banks cant generate usual scamming fees, Real estate / business debt issues will make debt reduction the focus therefore curb spending investing.

*but I use tea bags - so in reality I know jack....


----------



## peter2 (3 January 2019)

6139: (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)


----------



## Triple B (4 January 2019)

6900 RBA interest rate drop . AUD then weaker, China trade Sorted = overseas investors take advantage of weak AUD (in stocks not AUD)  . Exports cheaper and china wants more.Commodities(iron Gold) rise early in year  taking small cap resources with them . Index climbs to Pre GFC High towards Christmas but bounces off 7000. or it all goes to **** and 4000


----------



## Triple B (4 January 2019)

Sorry got carried away there. 6900 .....what ...?Seriously....21% gain in 12months ..LOL


----------



## Bill M (4 January 2019)

jbocker said:


> My five words: Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction






peter2 said:


> 6139: (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)






Triple B said:


> Sorry got carried away there. 6900 .....what ...?Seriously....21% gain in 12months ..LOL




All of you are added, thanks! By the way, I'm taking entries until Sunday the 13th Jan 2359 EDST, so it is only fair that if you wish to change your prediction you can up until that time, cheers.

explod.......... 2300
jjbinks.......... 3000
InsvestoBoy... 3000
Smurf1976.... 4000
$20shoes...... 4380
qldfrog.......... 4500
Darc Knight... 4800 (sustained bear market, occassionial rallies)
Trednomics... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Struzball....... 5100
IFocus.......... 5200
MrChow........ 5400
Logique........ 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
jbocker......... 5575 (Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction)
macca.......... 5700
kid hustler.... 6000
SirRumpole... 6100
peter2.......... 6139 (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)
greggles....... 6270
Bill M........... 6341 (Down with DOW, then up) 
sptrawler...... 6375
Toyota Lexen 6500
tinhat.......... 6780
PZ99........... 6800
Systematic... 6851
Triple B........ 6900


----------



## systematic (4 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> ^this. Good onya Bill
> 
> Funniest thread I've seen in sometime. We got a 2300, anyone wanna go 7000?




Don’t tempt me bud


----------



## systematic (4 January 2019)

Reason to add to mine: 

‘20% year - we’re overdue, baby!’


----------



## Bill M (4 January 2019)

systematic said:


> Reason to add to mine:
> 
> ‘20% year - we’re overdue, baby!’



Yeeehaaaa, added thanks.

explod.......... 2300
jjbinks.......... 3000
InsvestoBoy... 3000
Smurf1976.... 4000
$20shoes...... 4380
qldfrog.......... 4500
Darc Knight... 4800 (sustained bear market, occassionial rallies)
Trednomics... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Struzball....... 5100
IFocus.......... 5200
MrChow........ 5400
Logique........ 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
jbocker......... 5575 (Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction)
macca.......... 5700
kid hustler.... 6000
SirRumpole... 6100
peter2.......... 6139 (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)
greggles....... 6270
Bill M........... 6341 (Down with DOW, then up) 
sptrawler...... 6375
Toyota Lexen 6500
tinhat.......... 6780
PZ99........... 6800
Systematic... 6851 (20% year - we’re overdue, baby!)
Triple B........ 6900


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 January 2019)

5k.


----------



## Bill M (5 January 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 5k.



Thanks, added.

explod............. 2300
jjbinks............. 3000
InsvestoBoy..... 3000
Smurf1976...... 4000
$20shoes........ 4380
qldfrog............ 4500
Darc Knight..... 4800 (sustained bear market, occassionial rallies)
Trednomics...... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Gringotts Bank. 5000
Struzball......... 5100
IFocus............ 5200
MrChow.......... 5400
Logique.......... 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
jbocker........... 5575 (Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction)
macca............ 5700
kid hustler....... 6000
SirRumpole..... 6100
peter2............ 6139 (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)
greggles......... 6270
Bill M............. 6341 (Follows DOW down, then up)
sptrawler........ 6375
Toyota Lexen.. 6500
tinhat............ 6780
PZ99............. 6800
Systematic..... 6851 (20% year - we’re overdue, baby!)
Triple B.......... 6900


----------



## kid hustlr (5 January 2019)

kid hustlr 6000 - economy OK, no stock catalyst


----------



## Logique (5 January 2019)

explod said:


> I feel a bloodbath afoot so put me in for
> 2300 thanks Bill



2300 (!)  I'd be less concerned if your 2018 stock tips hadn't been so impressive Explod


----------



## IFocus (5 January 2019)

Trump uncertainty/tariffs/China slow down/FED re-balancing/falling AUD


----------



## Bill M (5 January 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> kid hustlr 6000 - economy OK, no stock catalyst




Added, ta.



IFocus said:


> Trump uncertainty/tariffs/China slow down/FED re-balancing/falling AUD



 5 Words or less is what we are going with so I just took your first 5. If you want to change them, you can, thanks.

You can change your entries or comments until 2359 hours 13th Jan. Comments = 5 words or less. Thanks.

explod............. 2300 (I feel a bloodbath afoot)
jjbinks............. 3000
InsvestoBoy..... 3000
Smurf1976...... 4000
$20shoes........ 4380
qldfrog............ 4500
Darc Knight..... 4800 (sustained bear market, occassionial rallies)
Trednomics...... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Gringotts Bank. 5000
Struzball......... 5100
IFocus............ 5200 (Trump uncertainty/tariffs/China slow)
MrChow.......... 5400
Logique.......... 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
jbocker........... 5575 (Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction)
macca............ 5700
kid hustler....... 6000 (economy OK, no stock catalyst)
SirRumpole..... 6100
peter2............ 6139 (US/China sorted, bank rally)
greggles......... 6270
Bill M............. 6341 (Follows DOW down, then up)
sptrawler........ 6375
Toyota Lexen.. 6500
tinhat............ 6780
PZ99............. 6800
Systematic..... 6851 (20% year - we’re overdue, baby!)
Triple B.......... 6900


----------



## bigdog (6 January 2019)

5650

US/China tariffs, Brexit and labor


----------



## Bill M (6 January 2019)

bigdog said:


> 5650
> 
> US/China tariffs, Brexit and labor



Thanks, added.

explod............. 2300 (I feel a bloodbath afoot)
jjbinks............. 3000
InsvestoBoy..... 3000
Smurf1976...... 4000
$20shoes........ 4380
qldfrog............ 4500
Darc Knight..... 4800 (sustained bear market, occasional rallies)
Trednomics...... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Gringotts Bank. 5000
Struzball......... 5100
IFocus............ 5200 (Trump uncertainty/tariffs/China slow down)
MrChow.......... 5400
Logique.......... 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
bigdog........... 5650 (US/China tariffs, Brexit and labor)
jbocker........... 5575 (Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction)
macca............ 5700
kid hustler....... 6000 (economy OK, no stock catalyst)
SirRumpole..... 6100
peter2............ 6139 (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)
greggles......... 6270
Bill M............. 6341 (Follows DOW down, then up)
sptrawler........ 6375
Toyota Lexen.. 6500
tinhat............ 6780
PZ99............. 6800
Systematic..... 6851 (20% year - we’re overdue, baby!)
Triple B.......... 6900


----------



## sptrawler (6 January 2019)

Down, up, Labor recession mid 2020


----------



## Iggy_Pop (7 January 2019)

5655, Labour win election, impact on franking credits with change for many SMSFs to international shares,  Global growth still positive but does slow down.

Iggy


----------



## gartley (7 January 2019)

Absolutely no idea what value XAO will end up at and don't even want to try and guess.
2019 will be a down year, but more importantly, the market will tell us what it really wants to do before it actually happens.


----------



## Bill M (7 January 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Down, up, Labor recession mid 2020






Iggy_Pop said:


> 5655, Labour win election, impact on franking credits with change for many SMSFs to international shares,  Global growth still positive but does slow down.
> 
> Iggy




Thanks, added. Taking entries until Sunday the 13th 2359 Hours if anyone else is interested. If you want to add a 5 words or less comment please supply it and I will put it up for you.

explod............. 2300 (I feel a bloodbath afoot)
jjbinks............. 3000
InsvestoBoy..... 3000
Smurf1976...... 4000
$20shoes........ 4380
qldfrog............ 4500
Darc Knight..... 4800 (sustained bear market, occasional rallies)
Trednomics...... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Gringotts Bank. 5000
Struzball......... 5100
IFocus............ 5200 (Trump uncertainty/tariffs/China slow down)
MrChow.......... 5400
Logique.......... 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
bigdog........... 5650 (US/China tariffs, Brexit and labor)
Iggy_Pop........ 5655
jbocker........... 5575 (Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction)
macca............ 5700
kid hustler....... 6000 (economy OK, no stock catalyst)
SirRumpole..... 6100
peter2............ 6139 (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)
greggles......... 6270
Bill M............. 6341 (Follows DOW down, then up)
sptrawler........ 6375 (Down, up, Labor recession mid 2020)
Toyota Lexen.. 6500
tinhat............ 6780
PZ99............. 6800
Systematic..... 6851 (20% year - we’re overdue, baby!)
Triple B.......... 6900


----------



## PZ99 (8 January 2019)

DOW, Oil, Banks all up.


----------



## lusk (8 January 2019)

6800+ Bank rally drags XAO up (Dow up from here, 1 to 2 years left in Bull)


----------



## MrChow (8 January 2019)

5400 - High Early Low Late


----------



## Bill M (8 January 2019)

PZ99 said:


> DOW, Oil, Banks all up.






lusk said:


> 6800+ Bank rally drags XAO up (Dow up from here, 1 to 2 years left in Bull)






MrChow said:


> 5400 - High Early Low Late




Thanks everyone, added.

explod............. 2300 (I feel a bloodbath afoot)
jjbinks............. 3000
InsvestoBoy..... 3000
Smurf1976...... 4000
$20shoes........ 4380
qldfrog............ 4500
Darc Knight..... 4800 (sustained bear market, occasional rallies)
Trednomics...... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Gringotts Bank. 5000
Struzball......... 5100
IFocus............ 5200 (Trump uncertainty/tariffs/China slow down)
MrChow.......... 5400 (High Early Low Late)
Logique.......... 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
bigdog........... 5650 (US/China tariffs, Brexit and labor)
Iggy_Pop........ 5655
jbocker........... 5575 (Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction)
macca............ 5700
kid hustler....... 6000 (economy OK, no stock catalyst)
SirRumpole..... 6100
peter2............ 6139 (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)
greggles......... 6270
Bill M............. 6341 (Follows DOW down, then up)
sptrawler........ 6375 (Down, up, Labor recession mid 2020)
Toyota Lexen.. 6500
tinhat............ 6780
PZ99............. 6800 (DOW, Oil, Banks all up.)
lusk..............  6800 (Bank rally drags XAO up)
Systematic..... 6851 (20% year - we’re overdue, baby!)
Triple B.......... 6900


----------



## Bill M (12 January 2019)

The yearly XAO prediction thread is still taking educated guesses/punts/tea leaf readings until 2359 Hours Sunday the 13th January (tomorrow night). So if you would like to enter your number with a 5 words or less comment please enter now (the comment is not compulsory). So far we have entries ranging from 2300 to 6900. It is interesting times and I'm looking forward to the year ahead. The thread will be open for comments and general discussion throughout the year. Good luck everyone, cheers.

explod............. 2300 (I feel a bloodbath afoot)
jjbinks............. 3000
InsvestoBoy..... 3000
Smurf1976...... 4000
$20shoes........ 4380
qldfrog............ 4500
Darc Knight..... 4800 (sustained bear market, occasional rallies)
Trednomics...... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Gringotts Bank. 5000
Struzball......... 5100
IFocus............ 5200 (Trump uncertainty/tariffs/China slow down)
MrChow.......... 5400 (High Early Low Late)
Logique.......... 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
bigdog........... 5650 (US/China tariffs, Brexit and labor)
Iggy_Pop........ 5655
jbocker........... 5575 (Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction)
macca............ 5700
kid hustler....... 6000 (economy OK, no stock catalyst)
SirRumpole..... 6100
peter2............ 6139 (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)
greggles......... 6270
Bill M............. 6341 (Follows DOW down, then up)
sptrawler........ 6375 (Down, up, Labor recession mid 2020)
Toyota Lexen.. 6500
tinhat............ 6780
PZ99............. 6800 (DOW, Oil, Banks all up.)
lusk.............. 6800 (Bank rally drags XAO up)
Systematic..... 6851 (20% year - we’re overdue, baby!)
Triple B.......... 6900


----------



## rederob (12 January 2019)

6543


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 January 2019)

Bill M said:


> Smurf1976...... 4000



Comment: US double top then bear.


----------



## qldfrog (13 January 2019)

Comment
Up till March then China down


----------



## Bill M (13 January 2019)

rederob said:


> 6543






Smurf1976 said:


> Comment: US double top then bear.






qldfrog said:


> Comment
> Up till March then China down




Thanks everyone, added.

explod............. 2300 (I feel a bloodbath afoot)
jjbinks............. 3000
InsvestoBoy..... 3000
Smurf1976...... 4000 (US double top then bear)
$20shoes........ 4380
qldfrog............ 4500 (Up till March then China down)
Darc Knight..... 4800 (sustained bear market, occasional rallies)
Trednomics...... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Gringotts Bank. 5000
Struzball......... 5100
IFocus............ 5200 (Trump uncertainty/tariffs/China slow down)
MrChow.......... 5400 (High Early Low Late)
Logique.......... 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
bigdog........... 5650 (US/China tariffs, Brexit and labor)
Iggy_Pop........ 5655
jbocker........... 5575 (Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction)
macca............ 5700
kid hustler....... 6000 (economy OK, no stock catalyst)
SirRumpole..... 6100
peter2............ 6139 (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)
greggles......... 6270
Bill M............. 6341 (Follows DOW down, then up)
sptrawler........ 6375 (Down, up, Labor recession mid 2020)
Toyota Lexen.. 6500
rederob......... 6543
tinhat............ 6780
PZ99............. 6800 (DOW, Oil, Banks all up.)
lusk.............. 6800 (Bank rally drags XAO up)
Systematic..... 6851 (20% year - we’re overdue, baby!)
Triple B.......... 6900


----------



## Bill M (13 January 2019)

Anyone else want to put in a prediction for the XAO at the end of the calendar year? Tonight's the last night if you are interested, cheers.


----------



## fiftyeight (13 January 2019)

5858


----------



## Bill M (13 January 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> 5858




Thanks, added. PS: Very clever 

explod............. 2300 (I feel a bloodbath afoot)
jjbinks............. 3000
InsvestoBoy..... 3000
Smurf1976...... 4000 (US double top then bear)
$20shoes........ 4380
qldfrog............ 4500 (Up till March then China down)
Darc Knight..... 4800 (sustained bear market, occasional rallies)
Trednomics...... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Gringotts Bank. 5000
Struzball......... 5100
IFocus............ 5200 (Trump uncertainty/tariffs/China slow down)
MrChow.......... 5400 (High Early Low Late)
Logique.......... 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
bigdog........... 5650 (US/China tariffs, Brexit and labor)
Iggy_Pop........ 5655
jbocker........... 5575 (Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction)
macca............ 5700
fiftyeight......... 5858
kid hustler....... 6000 (economy OK, no stock catalyst)
SirRumpole..... 6100
peter2............ 6139 (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)
greggles......... 6270
Bill M............. 6341 (Follows DOW down, then up)
sptrawler........ 6375 (Down, up, Labor recession mid 2020)
Toyota Lexen.. 6500
rederob......... 6543
tinhat............ 6780
PZ99............. 6800 (DOW, Oil, Banks all up.)
lusk.............. 6800 (Bank rally drags XAO up)
Systematic..... 6851 (20% year - we’re overdue, baby!)
Triple B.......... 6900


----------



## Bill M (14 January 2019)

Good morning, the predictions for year end 2019 are in and no more entries will be taken for this year. We have had 31 entries submitted, from lows of 2300 right up to a high of 6900. Lets see how it all plays out. Good luck everybody and thanks for having a go, cheers.


explod............. 2300 (I feel a bloodbath afoot)
jjbinks............. 3000
InsvestoBoy..... 3000
Smurf1976...... 4000 (US double top then bear)
$20shoes........ 4380
qldfrog............ 4500 (Up till March then China down)
Darc Knight..... 4800 (sustained bear market, occasional rallies)
Trednomics...... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Gringotts Bank. 5000
Struzball......... 5100
IFocus............ 5200 (Trump uncertainty/tariffs/China slow down)
MrChow.......... 5400 (High Early Low Late)
Logique.......... 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
bigdog........... 5650 (US/China tariffs, Brexit and labor)
Iggy_Pop........ 5655
jbocker........... 5575 (Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction)
macca............ 5700
fiftyeight......... 5858
kid hustler....... 6000 (economy OK, no stock catalyst)
SirRumpole..... 6100
peter2............ 6139 (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)
greggles......... 6270
Bill M............. 6341 (Follows DOW down, then up)
sptrawler........ 6375 (Down, up, Labor recession mid 2020)
Toyota Lexen.. 6500
rederob......... 6543
tinhat............ 6780
PZ99............. 6800 (DOW, Oil, Banks all up.)
lusk.............. 6800 (Bank rally drags XAO up)
Systematic..... 6851 (20% year - we’re overdue, baby!)
Triple B.......... 6900


----------



## Darc Knight (14 January 2019)

Great work Bill 

I note @Triple B hasn't given a reason. Curious to hear one


----------



## Triple B (14 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> Great work Bill
> 
> I note @Triple B hasn't given a reason. Curious to hear one



Sorry :
(looks like a normal correction) < quote this bit.  note previous crashes on chart and the steep increase before sharp downturn


	

		
			
		

		
	
   combine with my expert fundamental analysis in earlier post and I think we may be in for a bull run baby.  then a crash!


----------



## Bill M (14 January 2019)

Triple B said:


> Sorry :
> (looks like a normal correction) < quote this bit.  note previous crashes on chart and the steep increase before sharp downturn
> View attachment 91329
> 
> ...



Thanks for the quote and the chart, I hope you are right.

explod............. 2300 (I feel a bloodbath afoot)
jjbinks............. 3000
InsvestoBoy..... 3000
Smurf1976...... 4000 (US double top then bear)
$20shoes........ 4380
qldfrog............ 4500 (Up till March then China down)
Darc Knight..... 4800 (sustained bear market, occasional rallies)
Trednomics...... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Gringotts Bank. 5000
Struzball......... 5100
IFocus............ 5200 (Trump uncertainty/tariffs/China slow down)
MrChow.......... 5400 (High Early Low Late)
Logique.......... 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
bigdog........... 5650 (US/China tariffs, Brexit and labor)
Iggy_Pop........ 5655
jbocker........... 5575 (Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction)
macca............ 5700
fiftyeight......... 5858
kid hustler....... 6000 (economy OK, no stock catalyst)
SirRumpole..... 6100
peter2............ 6139 (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)
greggles......... 6270
Bill M............. 6341 (Follows DOW down, then up)
sptrawler........ 6375 (Down, up, Labor recession mid 2020)
Toyota Lexen.. 6500
rederob......... 6543
tinhat............ 6780
PZ99............. 6800 (DOW, Oil, Banks all up.)
lusk.............. 6800 (Bank rally drags XAO up)
Systematic..... 6851 (20% year - we’re overdue, baby!)
Triple B.......... 6900 (looks like a normal correction)


----------



## PZ99 (1 February 2019)

Just a quick update 

Top 5 is kid hustler , fiftyeight , Horace , peter2 & macca


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (5 February 2019)

Looking forward to the next update, Trump & China sorted next.


----------



## qldfrog (5 February 2019)

So real estate and economic figures a disaster, rba might have to reduce the rate and so crash the AUD, debt as high as ever with China stopped in its economic track but asx goes on a crazy high..
What can go wrong?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (1 March 2019)

having good run, Brexit sorted out shortly as well


----------



## PZ99 (2 March 2019)

I'm stranded on a one man mobile phone island at the moment so haven't access to the spreadsheet but with the XAO at 6274 that puts 
Greggles in the lead at 4
followed by Bill M at 67
Then sptrawler at 101
peter2 at 135
SirRumpole at 174
Toyota Lexen at 226

Hope that's correct. Cheers


----------



## PZ99 (18 April 2019)

XAO hits around 6350 

That puts Bill M in pole position, 

followed by sptrawler, greggles, Toyota Lexen, rederob and peter2 

_(sorry got the colours mixed up)..._

Happy Easter


----------



## Bill M (18 April 2019)

Yeeehaa, looking good. Thanks for the update.


----------



## PZ99 (17 May 2019)

Australian shares surge to 11-year high after nearly all sectors rise more than one per cent each

https://www.news.com.au/finance/mar...h/news-story/d75455b7e27ddd0d10aaff47435a3824


----------



## qldfrog (17 May 2019)

and yet my overly bearish portfolio if going from high to high..bond usd, gold, etc
weird time


----------



## PZ99 (20 May 2019)

Let's do this again LOL


----------



## Logique (19 June 2019)

6,728 at 19 June. The pool of possible winners is shrinking rapidly, well done to you high rollers.

Explod, mate at 2,300 you could probably put the cue in the rack at this point


----------



## PZ99 (19 June 2019)




----------



## Joules MM1 (19 June 2019)

(Fur) Trader Punxsutawney Phil said:
			
		

> I predict these predictionings are predictable predicated on the predicament of peculiar passions for near-term near-sighted nearly-right-ed-ness, price pickin'




explods footy bloodbath lookin red


----------



## PZ99 (4 July 2019)

*ASX opens higher after Wall St hit records*

The Australian share market has risen at the start of trading after stocks on Wall Street hit new highs.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was up 28.6 points, or 0.43 per cent, to 6,714.1 points at 1030 AEST on Thursday, while the broader All Ordinaries was up 27.5 points, or 0.41 cent, to 6,797.6.

Healthcare and financial shares were the highest climbers, adding 1.12 per cent and 0.85 per cent respectively.

Pharma giant CSL was up 1.68 per cent to $220.89, Healius was up 1.32 per cent to $3.06 and AusCann was up 3.52 per cent $36.75.

The big four banks all gained, with ANZ up 1.19 per cent to $28.12, Commonwealth up 1.04 per cent to $81.79, NAB up 0.86 per cent to $26.85, and Westpac up one per cent to $28.18.

The heavyweight materials sector was the only segment of the ASX to fall within the first half hour.

Mining giant BHP was down 0.69 per cent to $41.79, Rio Tinto was down 0.61 per cent to $106.40 and Fortescue Metals was down 0.64 per cent to $9.34.

All three major Wall Street indices finished at record highs overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 0.67 per cent, the S&P 500 up 0.77 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite up 0.75 per cent.

The Aussie dollar is buying 70.36 US cents from 69.94 US cents on Wednesday.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/asx-set-open-higher-wall-st-records-210919979--spt.html


----------



## HelloU (4 July 2019)

will just say that over last few months xao was lagging xfl (50) and diverging ....... and influencing my decisions in a negative/tentative way ........ but gap is now closing (for what it is worth to those that look at this)

of course xjo is currently rolling over intra-day 13:23 04Jul19 as I type this, so who knows.


----------



## Bill M (25 July 2019)

Triple B.......... 6900 (looks like a normal correction)

Well done Triple B. Long way to go but right now your choice is looking good.


----------



## PZ99 (29 July 2019)

*



Four flashpoints that may unsettle booming stock markets in the coming year:*

"Global equities rallied after the International Monetary Fund cut the global growth outlook to 3.2 per cent in 2019, which would be the lowest growth rate in a decade."

In 2008, the financial system teetered on the brink of collapse. It was a crisis triggered by a catastrophic debt build-up in America's housing market that, once it burst, infected the US and the global banking system.

Ultimately, the contagion and fear was contained. But the underlying problems were never really addressed, let alone solved. They were merely papered over with vast amounts of extra debt created out of thin air.

Remarkably, central banks since then have managed to avoid yet another debt-inspired meltdown by sending interest rates to zero and then negative territory.

What they now most fear is another financial market implosion that could spill over and cripple the real economy. But as they've demonstrated time and again, they will stop at nothing to avoid one.

How long can this state of suspended animation continue, where supposedly free markets are so easily manipulated? Investors appear to have become lulled into believing it will continue indefinitely.

More here > https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07...t-may-unsettle-booming-stock-markets/11354772


----------



## qldfrog (29 July 2019)

We are still far from the end of year


----------



## lusk (31 July 2019)

qldfrog said:


> We are still far from the end of year




We haven't hit the euphoria (bitcoin) stage yet either.


----------



## qldfrog (31 July 2019)

We will go thru 7000 just on that magic number euphoria IMHO
Ok with it,but by January 2020, we could be in a very different way, 

statistically, like death, the longer you live the sooner you die


----------



## PZ99 (15 August 2019)

Down 358 points since last update - or around 5%...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-15/asx-tumbles-on-us-recession-fears/11416348


----------



## PZ99 (28 November 2019)

Scandal-plagued Westpac is the nation’s second largest bank in a sector that dominates the equities market, but this hasn’t restricted the indices from reaching record highs in a year of overall positive gains.

The ASX top 200 companies pushed higher throughout the morning and reached its highest point in history at midday, up 0.4 per cent on Wednesday’s close to 6878.7 points at 1200, while the all ordinaries was at record high of its own, 0.40 per cent higher to 6978.7 points.

“It’s clearly not the financials that are really driving up the gains that we’re seeing, they’re still underperforming,” CMC Markets’ chief market strategist Michael McCarthy told news.com.au.

“The highs that we’re seeing have come despite the financial sector remaining under pressure.”

Burman chief investment officer Julia Lee said the Aussie market has surged 26.2 per cent higher in 2019, driven by assurances from the Reserve Bank of Australia that a lower trajectory for rates will continue into 2020.

“Those lower rates help to support asset values, we’ve seen that in terms of the property market and we’re certainly seeing that in terms of the share market as well,” she told news.com.au.

Ms Lee says global growth entering its late cycle has also been a positive for shares, as the doom period that has weighed on economies around the world edges closer to an end.

“When we have a look at key data coming out of the US it has been increasingly positive and last night was a great example where we saw the US stock market reaching all-time record highs and (GDP) data came in ahead of expectation,” she said.

Today’s rise is credited to telco staple Telstra which jumped nearly 2.7 per cent as well as another jump from market darling CSL, with the biotechnology company lifting 1.2 per cent by midday.

Mining giant BHP was up 0.69 per cent to $38.615, Rio Tinto was up 0.62 per cent to $97.60 and Fortescue Metals was flat at $9.785.

The big four banks were mixed, with ANZ down 0.22 per cent to $25.005, Commonwealth Bank up 0.20 per cent to $81.85, NAB up 0.42 per cent to $26.29 and Westpac eked out a gain of 0.14 per cent to $24.845.

More here > https://www.news.com.au/finance/mar...l/news-story/01eaa062ad4bcf0ace8d25628afd11c4


----------



## Logique (27 December 2019)

Congratulations to Triple B on what surely now must be the winning tip for 2019.

For 2020, I'm tipping 7,500


----------



## Bill M (27 December 2019)

We still got Monday and Tuesday to go. Trump might say something stupid and it could drop 300 points but yeah seems like Triple B has it.


----------



## qldfrog (28 December 2019)

Amazing how long it has been trying but failing to go thru the 7000 this year, was at 6900 eons ago and lingered there for 6 months basically
Another year wo the big crash...


----------



## Cam019 (28 December 2019)

qldfrog said:


> Another year wo the big crash...



I hate to say it, but unlikely you'll see it in 2020 either, in my opinion. With the continued rise in index investing combined with the historically low interest rates on bank accounts, TD's and the like.. there are not too many places you can *'safely'* put your money apart from equities and get a return that should keep up with inflation.

Additionally, there are a growing number of retirees (who do not read PDS's), who think the share market is too risky (see volatile) who are 'yield chasing' in products that they think are government guaranteed, like a TD or a bank account. In actual fact, the companies are basically vertically integrated ABS providers. Check out this link (scroll about 2/3 of the way down and you will see that over 58% of the loans provided by this company are effectively to borrowers who may have difficulty meeting their repayment schedules).


----------



## qldfrog (28 December 2019)

honestly, i believe you are right, no crash until Trump reelection.but in term of risk management, it is very unwise to risk a 30/40% fall for a 5% annual gain


----------



## qldfrog (28 December 2019)

Cam019 said:


> I hate to say it, but unlikely you'll see it in 2020 either, in my opinion. With the continued rise in index investing combined with the historically low interest rates on bank accounts, TD's and the like.. there are not too many places you can *'safely'* put your money apart from equities and get a return that should keep up with inflation.
> 
> Additionally, there are a growing number of retirees (who do not read PDS's), who think the share market is too risky (see volatile) who are 'yield chasing' in products that they think are government guaranteed, like a TD or a bank account. In actual fact, the companies are basically vertically integrated ABS providers. Check out this link (scroll about 2/3 of the way down and you will see that over 58% of the loans provided by this company are effectively to borrowers who may have difficulty meeting their repayment schedules).



interesting link, I am not even exposed (yet) to these even as marketing:


Investor can not say they are not warned: see the needle there 
But I have a small amount in rate setter which I consider as high risk


----------



## Logique (28 December 2019)

I don't see a market crash in a US Presidential Election year. Not with such a market-savvy incumbent..


----------



## rederob (28 December 2019)

Bill M said:


> We still got Monday and Tuesday to go. Trump might say something stupid and it could drop 300 points but yeah seems like Triple B has it.



I rang Donald and said “I would like you to do me a favour” and he said “no wuckers” so there’s going to be a fall of some 400 points on Monday.

#makerederobdawinna


----------



## kid hustlr (28 December 2019)

This thread is a example of leaning against the crowd. Are we doing a 2020


----------



## greggles (28 December 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> Are we doing a 2020




If we are, put me down for 6050. 2020 is going to be the year that the chickens come home to roost.


----------



## Bill M (28 December 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> This thread is a example of leaning against the crowd. Are we doing a 2020



We sure are mate, I'll collate it, no worries. Maybe @PZ99 might do the Monthly updates if he wants too as well.


----------



## peter2 (28 December 2019)

*2020*: A roller coaster year with the XAO ending up at 7887.


----------



## Knobby22 (28 December 2019)

2020, bullish, but probably final good year 7677.


----------



## Bill M (28 December 2019)

Logique said:


> I don't see a market crash in a US Presidential Election year. Not with such a market-savvy incumbent..



Since 1928 there has been 23 Presidential Election Years. Out of 23 only 4 have been negative with 2008 being the last one. During that year the S&P 500 lost -37%. From 1944 through to 1996 there were no negative years.

With odds looking like that I'd be betting on an up year next year.
Source: https://www.thebalance.com/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-returns-2388526


----------



## myrtie100 (29 December 2019)

I'll guess 7515 for the end of 2020.


----------



## qldfrog (29 December 2019)

Big question is Nov 2020
Will trump win, most probable in that case we end up xao at 7960, or a crash if Warren got over
My bet xao at 7960
If it goes the other way, we will start a bloody steep descent


----------



## tinhat (29 December 2019)

*8050*


----------



## Belle10 (29 December 2019)

7219


----------



## rederob (29 December 2019)

Well if we are just doing a run-on into 2020 then my end-of-next year XAO prediction is 8888 because
*8* is the luckiest number in Chinese culture and I think by then Trump will have lost his fake trade war with Xi (and the planet will get back to its chaotic normal).


----------



## kid hustlr (29 December 2019)

Lol look at all these perma bulls.

XAO 6000 please


----------



## macca (29 December 2019)

Election year in USA so I will tip 7777


----------



## rcm617 (29 December 2019)

I think we are due for a rough year.
XAO 5900


----------



## drillinto (29 December 2019)

XAO at the end of 2020 = 8080


----------



## bigdog (30 December 2019)

XAO at the end of 2020 = 7950


----------



## rederob (30 December 2019)

rederob said:


> Well if we are just doing a run-on into 2020 then my end-of-next year XAO prediction is 8888 because
> *8* is the luckiest number in Chinese culture and I think by then Trump will have lost his fake trade war with Xi (and the planet will get back to its chaotic normal).



Dear Joe
I have badly failed Chinese culture as 4 x 8 to get 8888 for the XAU is a bad omen given that *4* is very unlucky.
So if it is ok can you please have me down as *8288* in 2020 because a very wise person has just told me that the number 2 as a conjunction will "*harmonise*" the prediction.
(The number *4* represent *death*!)


----------



## So_Cynical (30 December 2019)

6667 - 2020 should be rough, on the plus side its not a certainty just likely.


----------



## Logique (30 December 2019)

Bill M said:


> We still got Monday and Tuesday to go. Trump might say something stupid and it could drop 300 points but yeah seems like Triple B has it.



Indeed _Systematic_ is not completely out of it, next down at 6851. At a touch above 6900 this afternoon, nearly at the close, last trading day tomorrow.


----------



## jbocker (30 December 2019)

rederob said:


> Dear Joe
> I have badly failed Chinese culture as 4 x 8 to get 8888 for the XAU is a bad omen given that *4* is very unlucky.
> …
> (The number *4* represent *death*!)




I pity the poor Chinese people (who survive) that were born on 4th April 1944. Probably penniless (yuanless) miserable lonely and destitute.


----------



## Triple B (30 December 2019)

explod............. 2300 (I feel a bloodbath afoot)
jjbinks............. 3000
InsvestoBoy..... 3000
Smurf1976...... 4000 (US double top then bear)
$20shoes........ 4380
qldfrog............ 4500 (Up till March then China down)
Darc Knight..... 4800 (sustained bear market, occasional rallies)
Trednomics...... 4900 (Australian Banking Crisis)
Gringotts Bank. 5000
Struzball......... 5100
IFocus............ 5200 (Trump uncertainty/tariffs/China slow down)
MrChow.......... 5400 (High Early Low Late)
Logique.......... 5500 (China slowdown, UK hard Brexit)
bigdog........... 5650 (US/China tariffs, Brexit and labor)
Iggy_Pop........ 5655
jbocker........... 5575 (Markets, Banks flat; Debt reduction)
macca............ 5700
fiftyeight......... 5858
kid hustler....... 6000 (economy OK, no stock catalyst)
SirRumpole..... 6100
peter2............ 6139 (US/China sorted, bank rally starting)
greggles......... 6270
Bill M............. 6341 (Follows DOW down, then up)
sptrawler........ 6375 (Down, up, Labor recession mid 2020)
Toyota Lexen.. 6500
rederob......... 6543
tinhat............ 6780
PZ99............. 6800 (DOW, Oil, Banks all up.)
lusk.............. 6800 (Bank rally drags XAO up)
Systematic..... 6851 (20% year - we’re overdue, baby!)
Triple B.......... 6900 (looks like a normal correction)

Stop The Clock! 6902 right  now!  Will polish Crystal Ball and Get back to you for 2020


----------



## Bill M (30 December 2019)

rederob said:


> Dear Joe
> I have badly failed Chinese culture as 4 x 8 to get 8888 for the XAU is a bad omen given that *4* is very unlucky.
> So if it is ok can you please have me down as *8288* in 2020 because a very wise person has just told me that the number 2 as a conjunction will "*harmonise*" the prediction.
> (The number *4* represent *death*!)



I joined a rugby union football club in NSW once and it was frequented by a large Chinese population. On receiving my card the number was 8884, I thought hmm, that looks nice. My mate standing next to me said, no good, no good, bad luck for Chinese, means death, that's why no one has it. Well I didn't believe in that crap so kept the number. I went on to win a few meat trays and the major seafood tray once so it paid off for me.


----------



## Triple B (30 December 2019)

Systematic Seems My Only real Threat at 6851. Hope The Trumpster can Keep his trap shut for the next 24 hours. Need to block his Twitter Account too!
Crystal Ball Says 7200 for 2020 End
After a Big Bull run Early , Then a Sell off Before  US Election.

If we are having 5 words again:   Bullish Early, Selling  Before Elections


----------



## MovingAverage (30 December 2019)

My random number generator says XAO at 7900 by end of 2020.


----------



## sptrawler (30 December 2019)

XAO 8250 driven by Trump/China trade agreement and Trump, Johnson, Morrison trade agreement.
My guess is it will be a really big year, but I could be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time.


----------



## Bill M (30 December 2019)

We should make a cut off for entries. What do you all reckon, Sunday 5th Jan or Sunday 12th Jan?


----------



## tinhat (30 December 2019)

tinhat said:


> *8050*




"Climbing the wall of worry"


----------



## rederob (30 December 2019)

Bill M said:


> We should make a cut off for entries. What do you all reckon, Sunday 5th Jan or Sunday 12th Jan?



Given it’s holidays now I reckon 12th is fair and frankly believe even another week will not make anyone a better tipster or create an advantage.


----------



## Bill M (30 December 2019)

rederob said:


> Given it’s holidays now I reckon 12th is fair and frankly believe even another week will not make anyone a better tipster or create an advantage.



Last year we made it the second Sunday too. When we got near that time very few entries were coming in so I am also thinking perhaps the 12th is fair too. Anyone else have an opinion?


----------



## Triple B (30 December 2019)

No Objections here your Honour


----------



## Logique (31 December 2019)

Bill M said:


> Last year we made it the second Sunday too. When we got near that time very few entries were coming in so I am also thinking perhaps the 12th is fair too. Anyone else have an opinion?



No problem with 12 Jan. Many on leave, or the back of a fire tanker somewhere


----------



## Triple B (31 December 2019)

Systematic could take out 2019 prediction with 6850....... XAO at 6835 11:30am with Lusk at 6800.
Did the trumpster open his mouth again?


----------



## Triple B (31 December 2019)

Triple B said:


> Systematic could take out 2019 prediction with 6850....... XAO at 6835 11:30am with Lusk at 6800.
> Did the trumpster open his mouth again?



Im out ,Gaaaaaaaaaawn
Lusk the outsider coming home strong at 6800!!   XAO now 6817....
Almost missed PZ99 at 6800 too,  could there be a Tie!!!
Tin Hat could jag it with 6780!!


----------



## cement (31 December 2019)

8170


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2019)

The Winner for the 2019 year end prediction of the All Ordinaries was *equal winners @lusk  and  @PZ99*  who both picked 6800. Coming in at *second was @tinhat *who picked 6780. Coming in at *third was @systematic* who picked 6851. Well done guys!!  

How did you guys do it? What made you both pick 6800? Or was it just a punt? I'm sure everyone would like to know.

And poor old Triple B held the closest position for the longest period of time only to get wiped out on the last 2 trading days, OUCH!! Not fair eh? It was all good fun.

So all the entries are rolling in for the year end prediction for 2020. I'll start getting that together soon. What an amazing year it has been. I hope we can all do well next year. 

The cut off for the 2020 predictions will be midnight Sunday 12th. of January. This will give us all a couple of weeks to get our entries in. 

Take care of yourselves out there and special thanks to all Fire Fighters and Volunteer Fire Fighters for all your hours of hard work and sacrifice you put in for us, great respect to you all. 

Have a Happy New Year everyone!!!


----------



## Triple B (31 December 2019)

Thought I had it at 4pm yesterday with 6902 on the card.

thats 19.14% gain from beginning of 2019!!


----------



## frugal.rock (31 December 2019)

7333 thanks Bill.
Mmmmmmm, 333 mustard pickles with corned beef on a buttered crusty bread roll.... I call it tasty logic


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (31 December 2019)

Well done lusk and pz99, great effort

Thanks BillM for running comp


----------



## systematic (31 December 2019)

7905 thanks @Bill M 

Gann cycle of price and time squared and measured from an angle of ninety degrees from the last time a move of the current completed cycle measured in this order...with a little nod to the 30,685.5 days that Uranus took to revolute around the sun. Technically, this should be a bear year, especially in the Indian indices, but I'm a permabull...so...7905 it is.


----------



## tinhat (31 December 2019)

Bill M said:


> How did you guys do it? What made you both pick 6800? Or was it just a punt? I'm sure everyone would like to know.
> 
> Have a Happy New Year everyone!!!




As I've explained here, you will probably find that most of the predictions fall within the normal range of the XAO anyway. I was bullish for 2019 (as I was for 2018 and as I am for 2020) so I just made an optimistic guess.

Thanks for your analysis and reporting through the year.

Happy new year to all.


----------



## Bill M (1 January 2020)

All right so we got until midnight Sunday the 12th Jan 2020 to get our entries in. Due to popular demand we are having the 5 words or less as a brief description or a light hearted joke as to why you chose your number (not compulsory). So until Sunday the 12th please feel free to change your figure or add, change or remove your comment, I'll update it. It's all a bit of fun, enjoy and get your entries in.

*The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:*

rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - 2 will "harmonise" the prediction

Keep them come coming, cheers.


----------



## myrtie100 (1 January 2020)

The tea leaves told me 7515


----------



## Logique (1 January 2020)

Wow what a finish to the 2019 comp!  Right down to the last day. Lusk and PZ99 - flashed through on the rails, well done.

Triple B - hard lines mate, had you on the podium for sure..

For 2020, people seem quite bullish so far


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 January 2020)

I will continue to take the low end of the range please Bill, 3300 please


----------



## frugal.rock (1 January 2020)

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/z1p-apt-prediction-competition.35127/

G'day Al,
Another one for the thinkers!
Entries close end of 15/1/2020
Cheers


----------



## zaxacel1975 (1 January 2020)

7718, strong, then weak, then strong.


----------



## fergee (1 January 2020)

5898, five words is not enough


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 January 2020)

7015 - I used to live in that postcode and it's a plausible enough target.

Given that I now live in a postcode starting with 5, better we see the ASX target the old one than the new I think.


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2020)

myrtie100 said:


> The tea leaves told me 7515






InsvestoBoy said:


> I will continue to take the low end of the range please Bill, 3300 please






zaxacel1975 said:


> 7718, strong, then weak, then strong.






fergee said:


> 5898, five words is not enough






Smurf1976 said:


> 7015 - I used to live in that postcode and it's a plausible enough target.
> 
> Given that I now live in a postcode starting with 5, better we see the ASX target the old one than the new I think.




All added, thank you.

*The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:
*
InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - 2 will "harmonise" the prediction


----------



## Knobby22 (2 January 2020)

Last year, so many bears...this year so many bulls.


----------



## rederob (2 January 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Last year, so many bears...this year so many bulls.



A possible reason last year was a big shift out of cash because the returns were so low.
The thing is, that trend has a chance of repeating this year as well because even market dogs are delivering more returns than interest rates.
So were I more sensible in my forecast to begin, then I would reckon the markets should have no problem adding 10% by year's end.
Presently we crazies forecasting >8000 might be well served by the commodities sector as a whole which has been relatively lacklustre for some years.  
@sptrawler's rationale relates to a good trade deal outcome and if that is the case then global manufacturing should uptick.  
The sleeper in this mix remains the pending EV evolution which we are wrongly thinking of as a revolution.  When you see all the car showrooms sporting lots of EV options then you will know the tide has truly turned.
Like those kids in the back seat keep asking as you head off to your favourite holiday spot "are we there yet?"


----------



## gartley (2 January 2020)

5400  US markets will finally dump


----------



## jbocker (2 January 2020)

6007 this is my post code. (these were my 5 words)
I am applying the Smurf Theory this year.

Other than that this stuff to me is *Too hazy *I am definitely *Too Lazy *and some say *Too Crazy *to think this one through.
Thanks Bill M  on reflection I think these ARE my 5 words *Too hazy, crazy and lazy *are more appropriate. the first 2 (hazy and crazy) can apply to the index the last applies just to me

Love this comp too Bill M.


----------



## rederob (2 January 2020)

Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
(Applying the 5 word rule retrospectively .)


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2020)

gartley said:


> 5400  US markets will finally dump






jbocker said:


> 6007 this is my post code. (these were my 5 words)
> I am applying the Smurf Theory this year.
> 
> Other than that this stuff to me is *Too hazy *I am definitely *Too Lazy *and some say *Too Crazy *to think this one through.
> ...






rederob said:


> Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
> (Applying the 5 word rule retrospectively .)




All added, thank you.

*The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:*

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!


----------



## Nateone (2 January 2020)

7500


----------



## PZ99 (2 January 2020)

Bill M said:


> We sure are mate, I'll collate it, no worries. Maybe @PZ99 might do the Monthly updates if he wants too as well.



Happy to run those updates 



Bill M said:


> How did you guys do it? What made you both pick 6800? Or was it just a punt? I'm sure everyone would like to know.



Given where the XAO was a week ago it was a first class fluke for me 

Although many predicted a down turn in 2019 I took the view we already had it in late 2018 and a recovery was on the cards.

This year who knows? Not me. So I'll go for another 6800 in 2020 based on more of the same economic indicators


----------



## Iggy_Pop (3 January 2020)

7170, It will all be good

Iggy


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2020)

Nateone said:


> 7500






PZ99 said:


> This year who knows? Not me. So I'll go for another 6800 in 2020 based on more of the same economic indicators






Iggy_Pop said:


> 7170, It will all be good
> 
> Iggy




All added, thank you.

*The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:*

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
PZ99..................6800 - The same economic indicators
Iggy_Pop............7170 - It will all be good
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Nateone.............7500
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2020)

PZ99 said:


> Happy to run those updates



Thanks mate, much appreciated.


----------



## Bill M (5 January 2020)

We got 31 entries so far. Closes next Sunday the 12th @ Midnight. Please keep sending your entries in, thank you.


----------



## lusk (6 January 2020)

Will go large with 8700. This year everyone piles in.

Just checked and got last years prediction correct with PZ99 it was just a guess, picked high as too many bearish at the time. 
The bull run keeps going but we haven't reached the euphoria stage yet where everyone gets in so maybe this year it happens and we get a big run before it ends.


----------



## Bill M (6 January 2020)

lusk said:


> Will go large with 8700. This year everyone piles in.
> 
> Just checked and got last years prediction correct with PZ99 it was just a guess, picked high as too many bearish at the time.
> The bull run keeps going but we haven't reached the euphoria stage yet where everyone gets in so maybe this year it happens and we get a big run before it ends.



Hi lusk, welcome back, I have added yours also. Good luck!

*The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:*

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
PZ99..................6800 - The same economic indicators
Iggy_Pop............7170 - It will all be good
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Nateone.............7500
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
lusk....................8700 - This year everyone piles in


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 January 2020)

live in NSW gawdelpus (but ex-Tassie)
7250


----------



## Bill M (7 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> live in NSW gawdelpus (but ex-Tassie)
> 7250



Added, thank you. Keep them coming folks.

*The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:*

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
PZ99..................6800 - The same economic indicators
Iggy_Pop............7170 - It will all be good
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
Dona Ferentes.....7250 - live in NSW gawdelpus
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Nateone.............7500
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
lusk....................8700 - This year everyone piles in


----------



## jjbinks (7 January 2020)

8400.
Another 20% year!!


----------



## Bill M (8 January 2020)

jjbinks said:


> 8400.
> Another 20% year!!




Added, thank you. Keep them coming folks.

*The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:*

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
PZ99..................6800 - The same economic indicators
Iggy_Pop............7170 - It will all be good
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
Dona Ferentes.....7250 - live in NSW gawdelpus
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Nateone.............7500
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
jjbinks................8400 - Another 20% year!!
lusk....................8700 - This year everyone piles in


----------



## Bill M (10 January 2020)

Entries close this Sunday 12th at midnight, get your predictions in!


----------



## Bill M (11 January 2020)

One day left to get your picks in, thank you.


----------



## Bill M (12 January 2020)

Closing tonight, anyone else want to have a go? Cheers.


----------



## Bill M (13 January 2020)

OK, this is the final line up for the year end predictions. Feel free to add commentary through out the year. Good luck everyone and lets hope we have a good year, cheers.

*The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:*

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
PZ99..................6800 - The same economic indicators
Iggy_Pop............7170 - It will all be good
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
Dona Ferentes.....7250 - live in NSW gawdelpus
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Nateone.............7500
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
jjbinks................8400 - Another 20% year!!
lusk....................8700 - This year everyone piles in


----------



## PZ99 (16 January 2020)

*

*

*ASX surging past 7000 points to reach a new record*

Australian shares smashed through the 7000 level just after opening following the signing of a long-awaited trade deal between the US and China.

The S & P/ASX200 was up 38.6 points, or 0.55 per cent, at 7033.4 at 1015 on Thursday after briefly hitting 7041.4.

The surge thumped Wednesday’s record on the Australian Stock Exchange of 6,996.8 points.

Australia’s broader All Ordinaries index was up 36.8 points, or 0.52 per cent, at 7150.3 at 1015 on Thursday.

The rise comes after the first phase of a trade agreement between the US-China was signed overnight in the US after two years of tense negotiations.

US stocks rose ahead of the signing and Australian shares have followed them into record territory.

The initial deal will roll back some tariffs and boost Chinese purchases of US goods and services, defusing an 18-month conflict between the world’s two largest economies.

Beijing and Washington portrayed their “Phase 1” agreement as a momentous step after months of start-stop talks punctuated by tit-for-tat tariffs that uprooted supply chains and stoked fears of a further slowdown in the global economy.

The gold price rose also after the trade deal was signed between the two biggest economies as details of the agreement failed to soothe investor concerns about trade differences.

Locally it will be a quiet day for economic news, so all eyes will be on company announcements.

The Australian dollar was buying 69.04 US cents, up from 68.96 US cents at Wednesday’s close.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/mar...d/news-story/274716989d8c8c44ba9b8db7320b0bb2
*
*


----------



## cement (20 January 2020)

So far so good but expecting a pullback any day now


----------



## Logique (28 February 2020)

You weren't wrong Cement!
Feeling very beaten up after this weeks 'Corona-slump', although a ten year chart makes me feel a little better.  My tip of 7500 can still happen in theory -but it will need a wriggle on. 
Anyway 'Corona-o'clock' I think, the beverage variety


----------



## PZ99 (9 March 2020)

*Investors are nervously cowering after widespread falls in local stocks as the market tumbles to losses not seen for more than a decade*.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/mar...e/news-story/728c50e2f64e5c5b089e417f4f13e217


----------



## Bill M (9 March 2020)

At some point in time this market has got to start looking cheap.


----------



## sptrawler (9 March 2020)

Bill M said:


> At some point in time this market has got to start looking cheap.



That is exactly what investment is about Bill, the trick is knowing when, or just nibble away.


----------



## PZ99 (17 March 2020)

900 points down in 8 days and looking like going sub 5k for a while...


----------



## MrChow (19 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> 5400 - High Early Low Late




My 2019 prediction - thought I was completely wrong all year.

Turns out just a timing issue.


----------



## PZ99 (8 April 2020)

A half decent recovery from this morning... https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/asx-set-dive-wall-st-rally-fades-211626081--spt.html

*ASX plunges as big banks dive at the open*

The Australian share market has plunged at the open on heavy losses for the big banks after an APRA suggestion to suspend their dividends and a downgrade to their credit ratings.

The S&P/ASX200 benchmark index fell 90.2 points, or 1.72 per cent, to 5,162.1 points in the first 30 minutes of trade on Wednesday as only the consumer staples sector remained in the black.

The All Ordinaries index shed 86.7 points, or 1.64 per cent, to 5,214.6.

Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, ANZ and NAB were down by between 3.01 per cent and 4.41 per cent as they moved to reassure investors they were well capitalised after the prudential watchdog said they should "seriously consider" suspending their dividends until there was more certainty about the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

Fitch also downgraded the big banks to A+ from AA- to reflect the agency's expectations of a significant economic shock in 1H20 due to measures taken to halt the spread of the coronavirus.

Macquarie Group shares dropped 2.65 per cent to $90, while Bank of Queensland fell 5.25 per cent to $4.87 after heeding APRA's advice and deferring its first-half dividend.

The bank's decision came as BOQ reported a 10 per cent drop in cash earnings to $151 million for the first half of 2020.

For the miners, Rio Tinto fell 2.1 per cent to $88.75 and BHP dropped 1.51 per cent to $31.22.

Fortescue Metals lost 0.88 per cent to $11.32 and goldminers Newcrest, Northern Star and Evolution were mixed on softening precious metals prices.

Property firms also took an early hit, with Stockland, Goodman, Dexus, GPT Group, Vicinity Centres swaying between flat and a loss of 2.34 per cent at 1030 AEST.

Scentre, which is holding its AGM on Wednesday, was down 2.57 per cent.

Those falls come after the announcement on Tuesday of a new commercial code of conduct for tenancy agreements that will be regulated by each state and territory.

The code outlines principles for temporary changes to leasing arrangements to help small and medium enterprise tenants who are suffering financial hardship and are eligible for the federal JobKeeper program as a result of their turnover falling or likely to fall by 30 per cent or more.

Meanwhile, Treasury Wine Estate stocks soared 8.8 per cent higher at $11.50 after the company announced plans to demerge and spin off its Penfolds brand.

The Melbourne-based company said the move would create a new ASX top 50-100 company for Penfolds and an ASX 100-150 company for New TWE.

Coles, Woolworths and A2 Milk gained between 0.53 per cent and 0.81 per cent to further boost consumer staples.

Overnight, US stocks built early gains but slipped as oil prices plunged late in the session.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled $US2.45, or 9.4 per cent, lower on Tuesday at $US23.63 a barrel, accelerating their losses late in the day, ahead of weekly US crude oil inventory reports.

Brent crude futures settled at $US31.87 a barrel, losing $US1.18, or 3.6 per cent.

The Australian dollar was buying 61.45 US cents at 1030 AEST, down from 61.84 US cents at the close of markets on Tuesday.


----------



## PZ99 (15 April 2020)

*ASX hits one-month high, enters bull market*

The Australian sharemarket rose to a one-month high and re-entered a bull market on Tuesday as local shares extended their rebound from heavy falls through February and March.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 100.8 points, or 1.9 per cent, to 5488.1, closing up 20.7 per cent from its March 23 trough and ending its month-long bear market.

The Australian dollar also rose to a one-month high on Tuesday, as the shrinking number of local coronavirus cases improved sentiment on the economy.

"As well as being the antipole of the US dollar – now 4 per off its 23 March peak in Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index terms – Australian dollar outperformance since late last week arguably also owes something to the fact Australia’s COVID-19 curves have bent downwards more sharply than just about any country outside China and which is getting plenty of international attention," said NAB head of FX strategy Ray Attrill.

More here from AFR: (might need a private / incognito window)
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-...month-high-enters-bull-market-20200414-p54jo0


----------



## PZ99 (22 April 2020)

*Collapsing oil prices a sign global stocks will fall further...*

Investors who had bought stocks hoping the recovery in share markets had begun have been delivered a warning shot through the historic collapse in oil prices this week.

Leading investment experts say the recent healthy bounce in Australian equities is more aligned with the government splashing cash on stimulus packages and not a true reflection of the destructive economic impacts still lingering from the coronavirus pandemic.

The demand for oil has fallen so aggressively due to the inaction of economies the futures index for the commodity recorded its first ever negative reading this week.

This bizarre scenario means sellers were paying buyers to take it off their hands because stockpile facilities across the world are nearly full.

With cars locked in garages and planes grounded on airstrips, too much oil is being produced to justify its use — about 20 million barrels of excess oil is entering the market everyday.

The ASX closed flat after today’s trading but plunged nearly 5 per cent over two sessions on Monday and Tuesday, with investors being warned of more heavy losses to come.

“(The collapse in oil prices) tells me that equities have been buoyed predominantly by stimulus,” Pepperstone head of research Chris Weston told news.com.au.

“It's been liquidity, it’s been central bank action, and it’s been government support but the oil market hasn't been a beneficiary of that stimulus.

“And that’s telling you what life would be like if it wasn't for the government.”

This weakness in commodity prices will make it difficult for energy companies alone to keep their businesses going.

Energy companies alone will struggle to keep their businesses open with this destructive weakness in commodity prices, Mr Weston said.

“The message the oil market is telling us is that we're not going to come out of this in a V-shape recovery,” he said.

“The idea of ramping up and getting back to our daily lives is just not going to happen.

“We're going to see some troubling times for some period ahead, there's going to be quite a few companies that go insolvent from these (oil) levels, which is going to accentuate bad loans and losses in the banking space.”

Burman chief investment officer Julia Lee said Donald Trump’s support for getting business back to normal in the United States despite the country recording more than 2000 deaths a day could further weigh on investor sentiment.

“I don't think the volatility is over yet especially given the US is looking to open up relatively soon, which means the COVID-19 situation could get worse quite quickly before it gets better,” she told news.com.au.

*‘ONCE IN A CENTURY’*

Westpac’s April market outlook said the health and economic crisis from the coronavirus outbreak was a “once in a century” event.

The major bank is now expecting the Australian economy to suffer three consecutive quarters of retractions.

The report heaps praise, however, on the Federal Government’s fiscal response, revising its expectation for unemployment from 17 per cent down to 9 per cent for the middle of the year due to the eye-watering $130 billion JobKeeper package.

But the positive sentiment drawing from the Morrison Government’s willingness to splash cash won’t last, the report warned.

Australian stocks have surged in value this week and closed nearly 3.5 per cent higher at the close of trade on Thursday but the heavy losses inflicted since mid-February will resume.

“Markets are currently buoyed by governments’ stimulus packages,” according to the report from Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/mar...r/news-story/d16adf22f4264fd26190b9902097c92d


----------



## greggles (22 April 2020)

@gartley might be winning at the moment, but I reckon @InsvestoBoy is still in with a good shot here.

Perhaps I'm being a little pessimistic, but I don't think we have seen the worst of this downturn yet. I suspect we're right in the midst of a dead cat bounce and the market will be heading down again soon.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 April 2020)

greggles said:


> @gartley might be winning at the moment, but I reckon @InsvestoBoy is still in with a good shot here.



I made a geographical error here.

My entry is simply the postcode of where I used to live. 7015 (Geilston Bay which is suburban Hobart).

I now live in SA and if I'd used my current postcode as the entry then I'd be winning at this point since numerically it's not far from the current value of the ASX. 

The power of hindsight. My only hope is that nobody from the NT ever wins using this approach since NT postcodes have 0 as the first digit.....


----------



## PZ99 (23 April 2020)

I live in Sydney.. so we're  doomed


----------



## PZ99 (26 May 2020)

*ASX soars, pumped by coronavirus recovery*

Share traders in Australia had a great Tuesday, with the local market making big gains.

At the close of trading, the ASX200 index was up a stunning 2.93 per cent, to reach 5,780.00 points. The All Ordinaries was up 2.79 per cent, ending the day at 5,889.90 points. That makes it the best day of trading for seven weeks, and the highest the market has been for 11 weeks.

The buying frenzy was triggered by positivity arising from coronavirus restrictions starting to lift around the world.

More here > https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/asx-soars-pumped-coronavirus-recovery-002353242.html


----------



## PZ99 (10 November 2020)

I'll update this at the end of trade today but a huge green explosion is imminent 

Dow soars to first intraday record in 9 months on upbeat report on Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine candidate, Biden presidency > https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...iontech-candidate-biden-presidency-2020-11-09


----------



## PZ99 (10 November 2020)

*Aust shares up 0.66 pct, energy surges*

Steven Deare
Tue, 10 November 2020, 4:24 pm AEDT

Australia's share market has closed at an eight-month high for the second consecutive session after promising results for a coronavirus vaccine.
The S&P/ASX200 benchmark index closed up 41.7 points, or 0.66 per cent, to 6340.5 on Tuesday.
The index reached a session high of 6438.2 in the first 20 minutes of trade, then eased.

The All Ordinaries gained 28.3 points, or 0.43 per cent, to 6544.0.
There was a whopping gain of 8.54 per cent for the energy sector, as traders hoped a coronavirus vaccine would later help people to travel more.
Pfizer prompted a rally on global markets after it said its experimental vaccine was more than 90 per cent effective in preventing COVID-19.
The Aussie dollar was buying 72.82 US cents at 1619 AEDT, down from 72.94 US cents at Monday's close.









						Aust shares up 0.66 pct, energy surges
					

Investors have enjoyed ASX shares closing at an eight-month high for the second consecutive time after promising coronavirus vaccine results fuelled optimism.




					au.finance.yahoo.com


----------



## sptrawler (10 November 2020)

I think the virus blew my legs off. 😂


----------



## PZ99 (11 November 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I think the virus blew my legs off. 😂



In my case it was the hair 

Bit of a shame the gains in the US didn't realy get replicated here save for the banks but that's life on the fast lane I guess.


----------



## greggles (11 November 2020)

I'm still in with a shot.

A 500 point XAO collapse by the end of December isn't out of the question given what is unfolding around the world with COVID-19.

If Biden croaks before taking office it could be even worse.


----------



## frugal.rock (13 November 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I think the virus blew my legs of





PZ99 said:


> In my case it was the hair



In my case it was the cigarettes, which blew a load of lard on.

And there I was thinking early in the year that I had way underestimated on 7333.
What a year eh, and it's not over yet...
Can I revise my figure to 6888 ?


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 December 2020)

The XAO has closed at 6850.60 so the winner would seem to be PZ99 with "6800" as their entry.

👏👏

Not bad, the closest entry is within 1% of the actual, and that's despite what I don't think anyone would dispute has been a genuinely unprecedented set of circumstances this year.

I'll post my guess for 2021 over the weekend.


----------



## frugal.rock (31 December 2020)

Does anyone know what it started on?
Very flat result either way....
Congrats @PZ99 , whoda thunk it, eh?!
Prize is in the mail...


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2020)

*And the winner is PZ99, only 50 points off, well done!!!!!!*

Thank you for doing all the updates throughout the year too, much appreciated.  

Would anyone like to have a punt for year end 2021?

Happy New Year everyone.

*The 2020 year end XAO Predictions:*

InsvestoBoy........3300 - Low end of the range
gartley...............5400 - US markets will finally dump
fergee................5898 - Five words is not enough
rcm617..............5900 - Due for a rough year
kid hustlr............6000 - Look, all these perma bulls
jbocker...............6007 - Too hazy, crazy and lazy
greggles.............6050 - Chickens come home to roost
So_Cynical..........6667 - Should be rough
*PZ99..................6800 - The same economic indicators......WINNER*
Iggy_Pop............7170 - It will all be good
Smurf1976..........7015 - It's a plausible enough target
Triple B...............7200 - Bullish early, selling before election
Belle10...............7219
Dona Ferentes.....7250 - live in NSW gawdelpus
frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic
Logique..............7500 - Don't see a market crash
Nateone.............7500
Bill M.................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
myrtie100..........7515 - The tea leaves told me
knobby22...........7677 - Bullish, probably final good year
zaxacel1975....... 7718 - Strong, then weak, then strong
macca................7777 - Election year in USA
Peter2................7887 - A roller coaster year
MovingAverage....7900 - My random number generator says
systematic..........7905 - I'm a perma bull......so
bigdog................7950
qldfrog...............7960 - Trump win, we end up
tinhat.................8050 - Climbing the wall of worry
drillinto...............8080
cement...............8170
sptrawler.............8250 - Trump/China trade agreement
rederob...............8288 - Apparently living in Bogøy Norway!
jjbinks................8400 - Another 20% year!!
lusk....................8700 - This year everyone piles in


----------



## So_Cynical (31 December 2020)

Close but no cigar 6667 ~ well-done zz


----------



## PZ99 (31 December 2020)

Strange result.

It's the same (joint) winning value I picked the previous year so it's a bit of an anti climax given the events.

Cheers and happy new year


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 December 2020)

My guess for 2021 is:

*6952 - expecting volatility but minimal year on year growth*


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 December 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Does anyone know what it started on?



Opened at 6800.3 so up a mere 0.74% for the year.

Which is actually a great reason why investors should be a member of this forum.

Because it's timing the market and stock selection, not simply spending time in an index fund, that will have driven profits for those who made a decent return over the past 12 months.

I'll go a step further there and say that while the All Ords was up slightly, the ASX200 which what someone will more likely have tracked via a fund was down 1.4% for the year.

There's a place for funds but there's a definite place for an active approach be that stock selection, market timing or both.


----------



## frugal.rock (31 December 2020)

Bill M said:


> frugal.rock..........7333 - I call it tasty logic



Echo.
Same again. 7333


----------



## PZ99 (1 January 2021)

If this is on I'll go for 7800


----------



## peter2 (1 January 2021)

2021 will be another interesting year for sure. 
Global companies will get the business from the large companies as they struggle. Large companies will get the business from medium size companies as they go broke. Medium companies will get the business from the smaller companies that have gone broke. Zombie companies and the "stonks" will be exposed. Minimal growth overall.

XAO  at EOY2021 = *6966* 

Plenty of opportunities for the quick in both directions especially in the small/micro cap sector as jaded insto's hunt for "alpha". 
eg Early example from *AFI* who has stated they're going to add small cap companies to their large cap funds.


----------



## Knobby22 (1 January 2021)

I 100% agree with #peter2.
I reckon the market will crash a bit, go back up  reset again but rise as the year ends 7069


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2021)

Yes, why not run the predictions again? Same rules, put in 5 words or less if you wish to, it's not compulsory though. It's so hard to predict, some people are calling a massive reversal and others are saying it's going higher. I think I will go with my last years prediction,  7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates. If you wish to change your number or your 5 words or less comments before the cut off time, let me know and I'll update it.

We better have a cut off time. How about, *get your entries in by 10 AM Sydney time Monday 11th. January 2021.*

Here's what we have so far:

Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
PZ99........................7800


----------



## tech/a (2 January 2021)

7385
low interest less reliance on china 
repairs to China /Aust relations.


----------



## investtrader (2 January 2021)

7500. I think low interest rates will continue to force investors into equities. A few shocks along the way and high volatility though. Could be higher if the China trade thing gets sorted.


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2021)

tech/a said:


> 7385
> low interest less reliance on china
> repairs to China /Aust relations.





investtrader said:


> 7500. I think low interest rates will continue to force investors into equities. A few shocks along the way and high volatility though. Could be higher if the China trade thing gets sorted.




Added. thanks.

*Get your entries in by 10 AM Sydney time Monday 11th. January 2021.*

Here's what we have so far:

Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
investtrader...........7500   
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
PZ99........................7800


----------



## qldfrog (3 January 2021)

7200
Initial bull near 8000 then inflation start hitting and squeezing of western economies by China as Reset starts showing its madness and China flexes muscles on Taiwan
By jan 2022,we will be going down but still enough " buy the dip and interest rates are low " private investors to slow the descent.in a year time big money will be out and market ready for crash. Btc outlawed


----------



## jbocker (3 January 2021)

6250 Cough up. Soon covids dead


----------



## Bill M (4 January 2021)

qldfrog said:


> 7200
> Initial bull near 8000 then inflation start hitting and squeezing of western economies by China as Reset starts showing its madness and China flexes muscles on Taiwan
> By jan 2022,we will be going down but still enough " buy the dip and interest rates are low " private investors to slow the descent.in a year time big money will be out and market ready for crash. Btc outlawed





jbocker said:


> 6250 Cough up. Soon covids dead





Added. thanks.

*Get your entries in by 10 AM Sydney time Monday 11th. January 2021.*

Here's what we have so far:

jbocker...................6250 - Cough up. Soon covids dead
Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
qldfrog....................7200
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
investtrader...........7500
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
PZ99........................7800


----------



## PZ99 (4 January 2021)

Hmmm.. looking at these other predictions I think I might have blown up my hat trick


----------



## Knobby22 (4 January 2021)

PZ99 said:


> Hmmm.. looking at these other predictions I think I might have blown up my hat trick



You will probably win again!


----------



## PZ99 (4 January 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> You will probably win again!



The taxman will be happy if I do


----------



## Iggy_Pop (4 January 2021)

My best guess 7389. Recovery will continue this year

Iggy


----------



## systematic (4 January 2021)

8220 '_I believe in miracles...'_


----------



## shaka (4 January 2021)

7650


----------



## explod (4 January 2021)

Collapse in my view:-

3500


----------



## Bill M (5 January 2021)

Iggy_Pop said:


> My best guess 7389. Recovery will continue this year
> 
> Iggy





systematic said:


> 8220 '_I believe in miracles...'_





shaka said:


> 7650





explod said:


> Collapse in my view:-
> 
> 3500





Added, thanks.

*Get your entries in by 10 AM Sydney time Monday 11th. January 2021.*

Here's what we have so far:

explod....................3500 -  Collapse in my view:-
jbocker...................6250 - Cough up. Soon covids dead
Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
qldfrog....................7200
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
Iggy_Pop.................7389 - Recovery will continue this year
investtrader...........7500
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
shaka......................7650
PZ99........................7800 
systematic..............8220 - I believe in miracles


----------



## frugal.rock (5 January 2021)

Bill M said:


> frugal.rock..............*7333* - I call it tasty logic
> tech/a..................... *7385* - repairs to China /Aust relations





Iggy_Pop said:


> My best guess *7389*. Recovery will continue this year



Not a lot of social distancing going on here...


----------



## Bill M (7 January 2021)

I keep hearing this story from various sources and it could be true. I know I got some cash waiting on the sidelines to deploy if the market crashes.

---
A common refrain: “There are trillions of dollars in cash sitting on the sidelines just waiting to come into the market.”  

“There is record amounts of cash sitting in checking accounts of American households — and for optimistic investors, it’s just one more reason the stock market should keep pushing higher.” 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...t-idea-is-hogwash-11609795905?mod=moremw_bomw

---
Are we in the same boat?

Where do you think the XAO will end up year end 2021?

*Get your entries in by 10 AM Sydney time Monday 11th. January 2021.*

Here's what we have so far:

explod....................3500 - Collapse in my view:-
jbocker...................6250 - Cough up. Soon covids dead
Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
qldfrog....................7200
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
Iggy_Pop.................7389 - Recovery will continue this year
investtrader...........7500
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
shaka......................7650
PZ99........................7800
systematic..............8220 - I believe in miracles


----------



## Bill M (9 January 2021)

Only 2 days left to get your prediction in. It's all a bit of fun and guess work + it's interesting to see vastly different opinions. Good luck.


----------



## greggles (9 January 2021)

6170 - Australia will follow the US down when their market eventually falters in 2021.


----------



## Dark1975 (9 January 2021)

Well looking at present we are just past half  way in investment clock, with low interest rates for the next couple of years ( money in the bank is useless) hence we will see growth in commodities /stock and real estate (residential properties) until we reach the top of the clock which will be represented with energy stocks booming ,then we will see a decline , unfortunately know one knows when, but I'd say end of year , so i will have a wild guess and say we reach  8100 xao  by oct/ Nov and the decline will start to happen,
End of year prediction near current  6734


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 January 2021)

Dark1975 said:


> Well looking at present we are just past half way in investment clock



One thing I'll note is that the time things take seems to be quite different these days.

Eg the stock market crash of 2020. Both the decline and subsequent rebound were so rapid that many people seem to have forgotten that they even occurred. 

Where that goes is caution as to the speed of future events as compared to historical precedent and how quickly we move through the cycle.


----------



## kinkypenguin (9 January 2021)

6969. not good but not terrible. lots of volatility but overall lukewarm performance


----------



## Bill M (9 January 2021)

greggles said:


> 6170 - Australia will follow the US down when their market eventually falters in 2021.





Dark1975 said:


> Well looking at present we are just past half  way in investment clock, with low interest rates for the next couple of years ( money in the bank is useless) hence we will see growth in commodities /stock and real estate (residential properties) until we reach the top of the clock which will be represented with energy stocks booming ,then we will see a decline , unfortunately know one knows when, but I'd say end of year , so i will have a wild guess and say we reach  8100 xao  by oct/ Nov and the decline will start to happen,
> End of year prediction near current  6734





Smurf1976 said:


> One thing I'll note is that the time things take seems to be quite different these days.
> 
> Eg the stock market crash of 2020. Both the decline and subsequent rebound were so rapid that many people seem to have forgotten that they even occurred.
> 
> Where that goes is caution as to the speed of future events as compared to historical precedent and how quickly we move through the cycle.





kinkypenguin said:


> 6969. not good but not terrible. lots of volatility but overall lukewarm performance




All added, thank you.

*Get your entries in by 10 AM Sydney time Monday 11th. January 2021.*

Here's what we have so far:

explod....................3500 - Collapse in my view:-
greggles.................6170 - will follow the US down
jbocker...................6250 - Cough up. Soon covids dead
Dark1975...............6734 - decline will start to happen
Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966
kinkypenguin.........6969 - not good but not terrible
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
qldfrog....................7200
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
Iggy_Pop.................7389 - Recovery will continue this year
investtrader...........7500
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
shaka......................7650
PZ99........................7800
systematic..............8220 - I believe in miracles


----------



## Bill M (9 January 2021)

Dark1975 said:


> with low interest rates for the next couple of years ( money in the bank is useless) hence we will see growth in commodities /stock and real estate (residential properties) until we reach the top of the clock which will be represented with energy stocks booming ,then we will see a decline , unfortunately know one knows when,



The biggest risk for us retired older people is return of capital, not return on capital. I just reckon that as the share markets being at all time highs it's just going to have to crash at some stage. Probably still going run for a while but we can't risk a massive fall. Even though my prediction is a bit on the high side I am definitely not all in. I can't afford to lose half my money in a stock market crash, so for me return of capital is more important than return on capital. However, if/when that crash comes I'll be straight back in there. Eating a bit of my capital is currently a better option than risking a market crash. If I was working and younger I might be thinking differently. I like your comments, thanks.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (9 January 2021)

5723 Coober Pedy postcode living underground


----------



## Dark1975 (9 January 2021)

Bill M said:


> The biggest risk for us retired older people is return of capital, not return on capital. I just reckon that as the share markets being at all time highs it's just going to have to crash at some stage. Probably still going run for a while but we can't risk a massive fall. Even though my prediction is a bit on the high side I am definitely not all in. I can't afford to lose half my money in a stock market crash, so for me return of capital is more important than return on capital. However, if/when that crash comes I'll be straight back in there. Eating a bit of my capital is currently a better option than risking a market crash. If I was working and younger I might be thinking differently. I like your comments, thanks.



I totally agree with your statement and yes no one wants to risk there hard working capital , l trade daily with 10% of my portfolio on small caps and about 50% of my capital in long term stock, most of my stock selections are with high dividend yields like TWE, AGL, ORG, WBC, BOQ, TLS, RRL,FMG, so if the market does decline im still getting a return , (unless it becomes Covid #2)  , I guess no one can predict the future , tho we can all have fun speculating 😉
Btw Enjoyed reading everyone's post on this thread, gives me a perspective on people's outlook to the next 12mths


----------



## Bill M (10 January 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> 5723 Coober Pedy postcode living underground




Added, thank you.

*Get your entries in by 10 AM Sydney time Monday 11th. January 2021.*

Here's what we have so far:

explod....................3500 - Collapse in my view:-
Dona Ferentes......5723 - Coober Pedy postcode living underground
greggles.................6170 - will follow the US down
jbocker...................6250 - Cough up. Soon covids dead
Dark1975...............6734 - decline will start to happen
Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966
kinkypenguin.........6969 - not good but not terrible
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
qldfrog....................7200
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
Iggy_Pop.................7389 - Recovery will continue this year
investtrader...........7500
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
shaka......................7650
PZ99........................7800
systematic..............8220 - I believe in miracles


----------



## CNHTractor (10 January 2021)

7344 - disruptor in chief gone, so possibly back to less volatility


----------



## rcm617 (10 January 2021)

8000. 
With low interest rates apparently here to stay for the next few years, where else do you invest your hard earned?


----------



## Ferret (10 January 2021)

7150

Gains continuing after a pull back in the first half.


----------



## Bill M (10 January 2021)

CNHTractor said:


> 7344 - disruptor in chief gone, so possibly back to less volatility





rcm617 said:


> 8000.
> With low interest rates apparently here to stay for the next few years, where else do you invest your hard earned?





Ferret said:


> 7150
> 
> Gains continuing after a pull back in the first half.





Added, thank you.

*Get your entries in by 10 AM Sydney time Monday 11th. January 2021.*

Here's what we have so far:

explod....................3500 - Collapse in my view:-
Dona Ferentes......5723 - Coober Pedy postcode living underground
greggles.................6170 - will follow the US down
jbocker...................6250 - Cough up. Soon covids dead
Dark1975...............6734 - decline will start to happen
Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966
kinkypenguin.........6969 - not good but not terrible
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
Ferret......................7150 - Gains continuing after pull back
qldfrog....................7200
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
CNHTractor............7344 - disruptor in chief gone
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
Iggy_Pop.................7389 - Recovery will continue this year
investtrader...........7500
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
shaka......................7650
PZ99.......................7800
rcm617..................8000 - low interest rates to stay
systematic.............8220 - I believe in miracles


----------



## brerwallabi (10 January 2021)

8450, it’s taken years to get back to where we are now, I believe we will be in a bull market that will last some years.


----------



## tech/a (10 January 2021)

Bill M said:


> The biggest risk for us retired older people is return of capital, not return on capital. I just reckon that as the share markets being at all time highs it's just going to have to crash at some stage. Probably still going run for a while but we can't risk a massive fall. Even though my prediction is a bit on the high side I am definitely not all in. I can't afford to lose half my money in a stock market crash, so for me return of capital is more important than return on capital. However, if/when that crash comes I'll be straight back in there. Eating a bit of my capital is currently a better option than risking a market crash. If I was working and younger I might be thinking differently. I like your comments, thanks.




Hear you loud and clear Bill 
But agree with Dark1975 although I think I’ll be upping the %
having said that longer term portfolios in the short term if 
managed well should return exceptional figures.
There are some I know ( not mine) returning +50% 
These days liquidation can be a click away 20 seconds 
( Sell all positions) there is a panic button.


----------



## mcgrath111 (11 January 2021)

I'm thinking We will finish the year largely flat, just under 7,000. 
Maybe housing can be propped up some more and we can see some negative rates?
People I know are tightening belts, even as we get back to normal I don't think consumer spending will return; fear of the unknown is still lurking.


----------



## Bill M (11 January 2021)

brerwallabi said:


> 8450, it’s taken years to get back to where we are now, I believe we will be in a bull market that will last some years.





mcgrath111 said:


> I'm thinking We will finish the year largely flat, just under 7,000.
> Maybe housing can be propped up some more and we can see some negative rates?
> People I know are tightening belts, even as we get back to normal I don't think consumer spending will return; fear of the unknown is still lurking.




Added, thank you.

*CLOSING IN JUST OVER 3 HOURS, would anyone else like to have a go?

Get your entries in by 10 AM Sydney time Monday 11th. January 2021.*

Here's what we have so far:

explod....................3500 - Collapse in my view:-
Dona Ferentes......5723 - Coober Pedy postcode living underground
greggles.................6170 - will follow the US down
jbocker...................6250 - Cough up. Soon covids dead
Dark1975...............6734 - decline will start to happen
Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966 - Minimal growth overall
kinkypenguin.........6969 - not good but not terrible
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
mcgrath111...........7000 - fear of the unknown lurking
Ferret......................7150 - Gains continuing after pull back
qldfrog....................7200 - buy the dip rates low
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
CNHTractor............7344 - disruptor in chief gone
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
Iggy_Pop.................7389 - Recovery will continue this year
investtrader...........7500 -  few shocks along the way 
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
shaka......................7650
PZ99.......................7800
rcm617..................8000 - low interest rates to stay
systematic.............8220 - I believe in miracles
brerwallabi............8450 - will be in bull market


----------



## Bill M (12 January 2021)

All the entries are in for the prediction of where the XAO will end the calendar year in 2021, thank you. Feel free to comment throughout the year as things move along. Hoping for a healthy and wealthy 2021, good luck to you all.

*Here's the final line up.*

explod....................3500 - Collapse in my view:-
Dona Ferentes......5723 - Coober Pedy postcode living underground
greggles.................6170 - will follow the US down
jbocker...................6250 - Cough up. Soon covids dead
Dark1975...............6734 - decline will start to happen
Smurf1976.............6952 - expecting volatility but minimal growth
peter2.....................6966 - Minimal growth overall
kinkypenguin.........6969 - not good but not terrible
Knobby22...............7069 - rise as the year ends
mcgrath111...........7000 - fear of the unknown lurking
Ferret......................7150 - Gains continuing after pull back
qldfrog....................7200 - buy the dip rates low
frugal.rock..............7333 - I call it tasty logic
CNHTractor............7344 - disruptor in chief gone
tech/a..................... 7385 - repairs to China /Aust relations
Iggy_Pop.................7389 - Recovery will continue this year
investtrader...........7500 - few shocks along the way
Bill M.......................7512 - Ultra low/negative interest rates
shaka......................7650
PZ99.......................7800
rcm617..................8000 - low interest rates to stay
systematic.............8220 - I believe in miracles
brerwallabi............8450 - will be in bull market


----------



## UMike (14 January 2021)

Not In I 'spose but 6000 for what it is worth.

Think there a going to be consistent head winds all year.


----------



## frugal.rock (4 September 2021)

Thought I'd update this thread.
Going through the entries, clearly the XAO has outdone most expectectations.
Current placers below.
XAO closed Friday 3/9/2021 on
7826.7


Bill M said:


> shaka......................7650
> PZ99.......................7800
> rcm617..................8000



So thus far,
@PZ99 closest to the mark, followed by @rcm617 with @shaka on third.

Here's a chart. Noticed a higher average volume from around 11th August.
That date seems to likely match up with around the time the government started handing out money in brazen, wanton and largesse fashion to the large majority, again, to stay at home...



Solid bull run really, and not seeing to many things raising major red flags...yet.
There's a few concerns, such as Fed tapering talks and Delta surging, but nothing that doesn't already seem priced in.
We'll see what happens when 8 ? million or so overfed and underworked people can go back to work...


----------



## divs4ever (5 September 2021)

** We'll see what happens when 8 ? million or so overfed and underworked people can go back to work... **

 probably half will die from heart disease or industrial accidents

 that is if they ever work again 

 i am a member of a US F.I.R.E.  forum , where a large number of well-paid  members HATE their MEGAcorp jobs  , and plot to retire early ( but not be broke  while they enjoy their 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s,  etc,etc )

 so i always wondered if those in well-paid positions , were so willing to escape their toxic work-places  , what about the blue-collar folks  , maybe that is why they are so desperately enticing Hispanics into the US , so SOME work might get done .


----------



## peter2 (28 November 2021)

*XAO = 7600*   with one month to go @shaka is still looking good.


----------



## KevinBB (28 November 2021)

peter2 said:


> *XAO = 7600* with one month to go @shaka is still looking good.



so is @explod 

KH


----------



## PZ99 (31 December 2021)

PZ99 said:


> If this is on I'll go for 7800



7800 degrees Fahrenheit


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 December 2021)

PZ99 said:


> 7800 degrees Fahrenheit
> 
> View attachment 135009



Hmm... I've got that CD, might have to play it. 

Sticking with the music theme, I'll pick 5150 for the ASX at the end of 2022.

A correction is due and 5150 is the name of a Van Halen album from the same era as Bon Jovi's 7800' so that'll do.


----------



## Ann (31 December 2021)

I am looking at a top of around 10,000 using a swing trade calculation for 2022 but feel it may tail away to about 9500 by December's end.
So 9500 for me.

However, with the song lyrics theme let's go Motley Crue  10,000 Miles Away which is probably where my prediction will come in...10,000 miles away!


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2021)

Bill M said:


> *And the winner is PZ99, only 50 points off, well done!!!!!!*
> 
> Thank you for doing all the updates throughout the year too, much appreciated.
> 
> ...






Bill M said:


> All the entries are in for the prediction of where the XAO will end the calendar year in 2021, thank you. Feel free to comment throughout the year as things move along. Hoping for a healthy and wealthy 2021, good luck to you all.
> 
> *Here's the final line up.*
> 
> ...



*PZ99.......................7800  WINNER 2nd year in a row, what a ripper, well done!!*


----------



## PZ99 (1 January 2022)

Bill M said:


> *PZ99.......................7800  WINNER 2nd year in a row, what a ripper, well done!!*



3rd year bro. LOL

6800, 6800, 7800

Nice round figures


----------



## peter2 (2 January 2022)

Please don't choose 6800 again. Shudder. . .


----------



## qldfrog (2 January 2022)

Between inflation twisting figures, number of gold producers in oz, currency exchange , generations of traders used to BTD plus gov trickery and end of any real covid medical threat,i shake the box and look thru the crystal ball: 5800 it says😊 but a lot of volatility in between now and dec 22


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2022)

PZ99 said:


> 3rd year bro. LOL
> 
> 6800, 6800, 7800
> 
> Nice round figures



Holy Moly, 3 years in a row winner, I should have gone back further.

Mate, you got to put in a guess for this year. I will base one trade on my favourite ETF no matter which way your prediction goes.

2022 should be interesting, I'm playing it very cautiously. I have a bit of everything but I am getting lazy too. I have bought into QSuper's lifetime pension where it will never run out. 

So lets do year end predictions for 2022, some of you already have.

Mine is, 7933 "nothing has changed, markets up"


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2022)

*Please give us your best guess as to where the XAO index will end in 2022 with 5 or 6 words (if you want to) of why you chose that number.* 

I'll get it all together here as we get the predictions in. 

To be fair to everyone who may be away or crook or busy doing more important things *how about we have all entries in by Sunday 16th Jan 2022 closing midnight.*

So far we have:

Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000


----------



## Knobby22 (2 January 2022)

Haven't had the blow off yet. 9900


----------



## peter2 (2 January 2022)

*8529* -  huge range during year hitting 127% extension 

@Bill M  Thanks


----------



## divs4ever (2 January 2022)

peter2 said:


> Please don't choose 6800 again. Shudder. . .



 OK then  5800 ,   there  are hints the market should trend upwards to March , but one day the financiers  will look at the Chinese construction industry  , and realize the business model that was over-ambitious is widely used across the developed world ,  and they should be using the risk calculators elsewhere as well  , tightening credit ( outside of Central Banks ) will flow  on  , making SOME corporate bonds worthy of investment cash .. sucking even more money from the share market 

 caveat  ... i have been wrong about this crash since 2013  , so DYOR


----------



## divs4ever (2 January 2022)

Bill M said:


> qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between





 WHOOPS 

 hadn't spotted that  could i be moved to 5550  please  ... same rationale  , higher first  , but then someone smart will crunch the numbers ( look for REITs to lose their shine early in the slide )


----------



## divs4ever (2 January 2022)

Bill M said:


> Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due



 yes i agree , but see some attempt by Central banks ( and government ) to slow the slide  , i suspect this baby  will be a U or L curve , we have already had the K recovery  so don't expect much help from the small caps


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> Haven't had the blow off yet. 9900






peter2 said:


> *8529* -  huge range during year hitting 127% extension
> 
> @Bill M  Thanks






divs4ever said:


> WHOOPS
> 
> hadn't spotted that  could i be moved to 5550  please  ... same rationale  , higher first  , but then someone smart will crunch the numbers ( look for REITs to lose their shine early in the slide )




All added thanks.

Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet


----------



## brerwallabi (2 January 2022)

I will say *9252*, it’s a bull market and it won’t run out of steam for a couple of years


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2022)

brerwallabi said:


> I will say *9252*, it’s a bull market and it won’t run out of steam for a couple of years



Added thanks.

Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet


----------



## Sean K (3 January 2022)

I'm in two minds. If interest rates remain where they are and the Fed doesn't taper then I agree with the upper level picks, but if the opposite happens and liquidity is taken out, then the bottom picks will be closer to the mark.

So, I'm going for something in between and there is a very slight taper, and perhaps one interest rate rise, and we end up in the middle of the long term trend.

Sean......7200....going for something in between

Outlier scenarios involve Russia taking the eastern half of Ukraine and China doing something to Taiwan (not ready for full out assault yet) that will throw a spanner amongst the pigeons.


----------



## sptrawler (3 January 2022)

Clean energy driving construction and resources, personal debt driving down unemployment, pork barreling adding the cream in an election year.
8900 is my guess, nothing like positive thinking.


----------



## wayneL (3 January 2022)

I'm also in two minds, depending on what Central banks do with interest rates and other actions.

If they keep rates artificially low we get a crack up boom/high inflation. If they start pumping rates it'll take everything out.

In any case it's a megalithic House of cards that will collapse in a heap at some stage. The question is whether it's this year or next. 

Pure guess - 4867... And probably in for the wooden spoon on that one.


----------



## Logique2 (3 January 2022)

8800 for me, thanks Bill M.

A more subdued year as reality bites (policy tightening). Momentum into the first half, a winter of discontent, then improvement into the close.


----------



## divs4ever (3 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> I'm also in two minds, depending on what Central banks do with interest rates and other actions.
> 
> If they keep rates artificially low we get a crack up boom/high inflation. If they start pumping rates it'll take everything out.
> 
> ...



 if you are a winner ( and i don't mean the wooden spoon ) , i'll probably be a grinner .. i have some  spare cash   awaiting a better place to be 

 good luck


----------



## divs4ever (3 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> Outlier scenarios involve Russia taking the eastern half of Ukraine



 more likely those states will move the Russian border themselves ( in the middle of the night  )

 Putin is probably hoping the Ukraine mess will break the EU ( and NATO )  without even warming up the tank engines  , so i think would be happy to have the Ukraine has an example  of EU promises  kept ( or not ) to deter any other nation states  from flocking to the EU  , remember Russia a and it's loyal satellite states  have HEAPS of undeveloped resources and two HUNGRY customers ( China and India )

 i wonder if  Russia is taking it's time to deliver gas via Nordstream  to simply see if the Ukraine infrastructure fails  , or just to give them a taste of relying on US LNG, 

 now China and Taiwan  could resolve quickly or in centuries  Taiwan  relies on importing/exporting  and much of the world is a financial basket case  how long can you survive economically  when most of your customers are deadbeats ( struggle to pay their debts )

 will China  invade  , or just toy with it causing  'allies ' to overspend on military budgets ( for however long it chooses )


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> I'm in two minds. If interest rates remain where they are and the Fed doesn't taper then I agree with the upper level picks, but if the opposite happens and liquidity is taken out, then the bottom picks will be closer to the mark.
> 
> So, I'm going for something in between and there is a very slight taper, and perhaps one interest rate rise, and we end up in the middle of the long term trend.
> 
> ...






sptrawler said:


> Clean energy driving construction and resources, personal debt driving down unemployment, pork barreling adding the cream in an election year.
> 8900 is my guess, nothing like positive thinking.






wayneL said:


> I'm also in two minds, depending on what Central banks do with interest rates and other actions.
> 
> If they keep rates artificially low we get a crack up boom/high inflation. If they start pumping rates it'll take everything out.
> 
> ...






Logique2 said:


> 8800 for me, thanks Bill M.
> 
> A more subdued year as reality bites (policy tightening). Momentum into the first half, a winter of discontent, then improvement into the close.




Added thanks.

wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Sean K.......................7200....going for something in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet


----------



## Bill M (9 January 2022)

*Please give us your best guess as to where the XAO index will end in 2022 with 5 or 6 words (if you want to) of why you chose that number.*

I'll get it all together here as we get the predictions in.

To be fair to everyone who may be away or crook or busy doing more important things *how about we have all entries in by Sunday 16th Jan 2022 closing midnight.*

wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Sean K.......................7200....going for something in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet


----------



## shaka (12 January 2022)

8600 - looks like it's still trending up


----------



## wayneL (12 January 2022)

I think it would actually be very interesting to have some sort of prognostication of the actual drivers of the market, such as the 10-year yield.

I heard an opinion that the stock market is actually a derivative of the debt market... And I think that is actually very true.

Tough thing to predict considering the influence of Central Banks and their interventions.

I'll go 2.5%.

The big question is whether that will trash the equities/RE market or not, but at that level might just be enough to put the wind up the punters.

Fwiw


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 January 2022)

8200 thanks @Bill M . Just following the long term trend up. I'll be close or the biggest loser. 

gg


----------



## frugal.rock (12 January 2022)

8777 
A dartboard throw, surely not?


----------



## frugal.rock (12 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> I'll go 2.5%.



There's always one in the bunch...😅


----------



## wayneL (12 January 2022)

Always happy to provide amusement


----------



## wayneL (12 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> Always happy to provide amusement



In all seriousness @frugal.rock the debt market is the key to this whole thing. We all know that the central banks are very active in this but there could become a point where bond traders take the fark over.

That's when sheit becomes extremely interesting. It will be like the market shooting some protons into a critical mass.

E = MC2


----------



## Bill M (12 January 2022)

shaka said:


> 8600 - looks like it's still trending up






Garpal Gumnut said:


> 8200 thanks @Bill M . Just following the long term trend up. I'll be close or the biggest loser.
> 
> gg






frugal.rock said:


> 8777
> A dartboard throw, surely not?




These have been added, thanks!

wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Sean K.......................7200....going for something in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
Garpal Gumnut.......8200....following the long term trend up
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
shaka........................8600....looks like it's still trending up
frugal.rock...............8777....A dartboard throw, surely not?
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet


----------



## Bill M (12 January 2022)

Just as a bit of a reminder, our respected member @PZ99 has won the last 3 years in a row with his predictions. It is hard enough just winning one, is he gifted? is he the wise one? does he know more than any of us? will he win again?

Get your entries in now, closes on Sunday, 16th Jan 2022, at Midnight.


----------



## qldfrog (12 January 2022)

Bill M said:


> Just as a bit of a reminder, our respected member @PZ99 has won the last 3 years in a row with his predictions. It is hard enough just winning one, is he gifted? is he the wise one? does he know more than any of us? will he win again?
> 
> Get your entries in now, closes on Sunday, 16th Jan 2022, at Midnight.



Has he discovered time travel?


----------



## StockyGuy (12 January 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Has he discovered time travel?




maybe an Illuminati member  🤔


----------



## Iggy_Pop (12 January 2022)

Bill, I see a stedy rise with a bit of volititlity at times. So the number I have is 8189

Iggy


----------



## Bill M (13 January 2022)

Iggy_Pop said:


> Bill, I see a stedy rise with a bit of volititlity at times. So the number I have is 8189
> 
> Iggy




Added, thanks Iggy.

wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Sean K.......................7200....going for something in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
Iggy_Pop...................8189....steady rise with a bit of volatility
Garpal Gumnut.......8200....following the long term trend up
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
shaka........................8600....looks like it's still trending up
frugal.rock...............8777....A dartboard throw, surely not?
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet


----------



## Knobby22 (13 January 2022)

Big gap between 7200 and 5800 which is statistically pretty likely.


----------



## Bill M (14 January 2022)

Alright everybody, not long to go before this gets closed off. As this is the last trading day of the week you might as well get your predictions in today.

*Please give us your best guess as to where the XAO index will end in 2022 with 5 or 6 words (if you want to) of why you chose that number.

All entries must be in by Sunday 16th Jan 2022 closing midnight.*


----------



## DrBourse (14 January 2022)

Hi Bill M,
My Call is *8347* by 31/12/22 - That is based heavily on TA, but with a pinch of World Economics thrown into the mix.
Reckon a Low point within the next 12 mths may be abt 6384.
I don't normally get involved with LT Calls on anything, so there is a lot of ST TA Theory in my 8347 call.


----------



## Bill M (14 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> Hi Bill M,
> My Call is *8347* by 31/12/22 - That is based heavily on TA, but with a pinch of World Economics thrown into the mix.
> Reckon a Low point within the next 12 mths may be abt 6384.
> I don't normally get involved with LT Calls on anything, so there is a lot of ST TA Theory in my 8347 call.
> View attachment 135732




Added, thanks DrBourse.

wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Sean K.......................7200....going for something in between
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
Iggy_Pop...................8189....steady rise with a bit of volatility
Garpal Gumnut.......8200....following the long term trend up
DrBourse..................8347....That is based heavily on TA
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
shaka........................8600....looks like it's still trending up
frugal.rock...............8777....A dartboard throw, surely not?
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet


----------



## Bill M (15 January 2022)

Not many entries this year. Come on everyone it's free and a bit of fun. Calling @PZ99 , calling @PZ99 do you read?

For the last 3 years @PZ99 has fluked the closest guess.

Who will win this year? Entries close tomorrow night at midnight.


----------



## qldfrog (15 January 2022)

Bill M said:


> Not many entries this year. Come on everyone it's free and a bit of fun. Calling @PZ99 , calling @PZ99 do you read?
> 
> For the last 3 years @PZ99 has fluked the closest guess.
> 
> Who will win this year? Entries close tomorrow night at midnight.



@PZ99  is not back yet from his trip to the future delayed by covid restrictions at the time gate.He should be back this weekend with the next powerball number and his "prediction" for the market


----------



## Bill M (16 January 2022)

Final bump, closing midnight tonight. Get your entries in, thanks!


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 January 2022)

7890. Up down and all around


----------



## Stockbailx (16 January 2022)

What a bugger, in a range since august last year. Got me thinking whens the breakout occur? Must be some good news ahead for the All Ords..


----------



## Cam019 (16 January 2022)

9000 - Weekly squeeeeeeze


----------



## divs4ever (16 January 2022)

StockyGuy said:


> maybe an Illuminati member  🤔



or  related to a US congress member  (  joking , of course )


----------



## divs4ever (16 January 2022)

how about a correction ??

from 

  *** divs4ever..................5550....some rational, higher first ***

 to 

divs4ever..................5550....some rationality returning ,  but  higher first

 cheers 

reporting season is due soon ,  but so is the Asian Festive Season  , some think  March will answer some tricky questions ( like will major Central Banks  start raising interest rates  , and if so  , how rapidly )


----------



## Bill M (16 January 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> 7890. Up down and all around






Cam019 said:


> 9000 - Weekly squeeeeeeze






divs4ever said:


> how about a correction ??
> 
> from
> 
> ...




Added 2 and corrected one, thanks.

wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rationality returning, but higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
Sean K.......................7200....going for something in between
Dona Ferentes.........7890....Up down and all around
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
Iggy_Pop...................8189....steady rise with a bit of volatility
Garpal Gumnut.......8200....following the long term trend up
DrBourse..................8347....That is based heavily on TA
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
shaka........................8600....looks like it's still trending up
frugal.rock...............8777....A dartboard throw, surely not?
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
Cam019....................9000....Weekly squeeeeeeze
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet


----------



## Bill M (16 January 2022)

2 hours and 15 minutes and this will be closed, thanks all.


----------



## PZ99 (16 January 2022)

PZ has no idea how this will play out but thinks inflation will be the impetus for a correction back to 7000 

Happy New Year Ya'll


----------



## Bill M (16 January 2022)

PZ99 said:


> PZ has no idea how this will play out but thinks inflation will be the impetus for a correction back to 7000
> 
> Happy New Year Ya'll




Thanks for turning up, good to see ya, yours is added also.

wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rationality returning, but higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
PZ99..........................7000....inflation will be the impetus for a correction
Sean K.......................7200....going for something in between
Dona Ferentes.........7890....Up down and all around
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
Iggy_Pop...................8189....steady rise with a bit of volatility
Garpal Gumnut.......8200....following the long term trend up
DrBourse..................8347....That is based heavily on TA
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
shaka........................8600....looks like it's still trending up
frugal.rock...............8777....A dartboard throw, surely not?
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
Cam019....................9000....Weekly squeeeeeeze
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet


----------



## divs4ever (17 January 2022)

PZ99 said:


> PZ has no idea how this will play out but thinks inflation will be the impetus for a correction back to 7000
> 
> Happy New Year Ya'll



 neither do i  , my main aim is to make somebody else look good 

 happy new year , back


----------



## Gunnerguy (17 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> neither do i  , my main aim is to make somebody else look good
> 
> happy new year , back



7300 for me please.
Your alll guessing ... but I know.
Slow, steady, bumps, and a final rise to 7300.
Gunnerguy


----------



## Bill M (17 January 2022)

Thanks to everyone who has participated and put in their best guess. The predictions vary from a low 4867 to a high of 9900.

Feel free to drop in and comment through the year. Good luck to you all.

*Here is the final list of predictions as to where the XAO All Ords index will end up by year end 2022.*


wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
Smurf1976...............5150....a correction is due
divs4ever..................5550....some rationality returning, but higher first
qldfrog......................5800....a lot of volatility in between
PZ99..........................7000....inflation will be the impetus for a correction
Sean K.......................7200....going for something in between
Gunnerguy...............7300....Slow, steady, bumps, and a final rise to 7300
Dona Ferentes.........7890....Up down and all around
Bill M.........................7933....nothing has changed, markets up
Iggy_Pop...................8189....steady rise with a bit of volatility
Garpal Gumnut.......8200....following the long term trend up
DrBourse..................8347....That is based heavily on TA
peter2.......................8529....huge range during year hitting 127% extension
shaka........................8600....looks like it's still trending up
frugal.rock...............8777....A dartboard throw, surely not?
Logique2..................8800....improvement into the close
sptrawler..................8900....nothing like positive thinking
Cam019....................9000....Weekly squeeeeeeze
brerwallabi...............9252....won’t run out of steam for a couple of years
Ann............................9500....top of around 10,000
knobby22.................9900....haven't had the blow off yet


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 January 2022)

Bill M said:


> Thanks to everyone who has participated and put in their best guess. The predictions vary from a low 4867 to a high of 9900.
> 
> Feel free to drop in and comment through the year. Good luck to you all.
> 
> ...



Haha. @Bill M .

I can see the headlines already.

Aussiestockforums again accurately picks the XAO end of year price. 

gg


----------



## Logique2 (15 February 2022)

Well the Superbowl Indicator worked out for the higher finish tipsters, with the old National Conference team winning (LA Rams). 
It was a close run thing though, went right down to the final minutes.
In consequence the Dow will now rise for the rest of the year, apparently.


----------



## PZ99 (16 February 2022)

Jeremy Grantham says a super bubble crash may be underway. Here's where he's stashing his cash









						'Get rid of this fear of missing out' ahead of looming share market crash, warns veteran investor
					

One of the world's most famous fund managers is warning that a "super bubble" that's been building for more than a decade may be in the process of bursting.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## peter2 (16 August 2022)

Mid August update. Currently trading in the huge gap between @Gunnerguy and DF.



@Knobby22 's  prediction is looking good to me.


----------



## Sean K (16 August 2022)

peter2 said:


> Mid August update. Currently trading in the huge gap between @Gunnerguy and DF.
> 
> View attachment 145507
> 
> @Knobby22 's  prediction is looking good to me.




There's gotta be a pullback at some point. It's ridden too hard from 6600. 7200 might now be a line of support for the next leg down, but then I think up to 7500 ish which will be a wall of steal. Then consolidation and up again - maybe. I'm backing @Bill M or @Iggy_Pop at this point.


----------



## wayneL (23 September 2022)

wayneL said:


> 4867



It's still a blinkin' long way off, but the momentum is right.... Who knows? 🤷‍♂️


----------



## Sean K (10 October 2022)

wayneL said:


> It's still a blinkin' long way off, but the momentum is right.... Who knows? 🤷‍♂️




Found support at 6600 but could it hold a third time? Or, double bottom...


----------



## divs4ever (10 October 2022)

Sean K said:


> Found support at 6600 but could it hold a third time? Or, double bottom...
> 
> 
> View attachment 147873



 can it hold after the ( US ) mid-term results are known ??

 with three potential outcomes  ( Dems keep the status quo , Republicans win but mostly RINOs   ie almost the same as a Dem win , or the Populists light a fire in the Republicans  and therefore in the both houses of government )

edge of your seat entertainment awaits ( grab some popcorn , or better still some rice crackers as i hold SGLLV )


----------



## gartley (10 October 2022)

wayneL said:


> It's still a blinkin' long way off, but the momentum is right.... Who knows? 🤷‍♂️



After the pandemic low it broke through the red and blue offsets  for the Nominal 4 year cycle thus giving an upside projection ( upper yellow rectangle) which was met.  Market has been moving down since. IF and depending where it breaks  through these offsets again ( it's not far off maybe at 6000) it will undoubtedly give a new projection testing the pandemic lows. But there is a problem here for the bulls in the longer term. Once the projection is met it may result in a good tradeable rally lasting a while, my guess all of next year. However in doing so it also sets up a new projection off the 8 year cycle at around 5000 resulting in crazy ultimate low near the GFC low. Labelling the move down from the peak red wave 1 the expected counter trend rally 2 and then the killer wave 3 longer term, OR an ABC pattern, doesn't matter as they both imply the same result.

Ofcourse if the 8 year cycle projection is given there is nothing to say it doesn't keep going down after with minimal rally, but I doubt it.

My 2c worth is this bear market be a will  long one and not end until we longer term  ULTIMATELY we test the GFC lows especially given the magnitude and duration of the advance of this 40 year bull market that preceded it...


----------



## brerwallabi (13 October 2022)

Whenever something crosses the line it does signify it is going to go somewhere.
Where?


----------



## peter2 (14 November 2022)

Three months later and the XAO still remains in the gap between GG and DF. A Santa rally will take it closer to DF.


----------



## Logique2 (1 December 2022)

Bill M. and Dona F. are the joint favourites for mine


----------



## Sean K (15 December 2022)

2 weeks to go, @Gunnerguy  looking good.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (15 December 2022)

I'd forgotten about this piece of whimsy (I have a wide range of choice).

For 2023, a new thread with the year in the title perhaps. I could dig out a garden gnome if a prize🏅🏆 would encourage entries.


----------



## divs4ever (15 December 2022)

actually i was thinking Sean K looked a chance ( and not because he is mod )

 7200  at the end of the month  after the Xmas rush  looks possible  ( with the market  easing due to mostly retail participation  after the Xmas break )


----------



## qldfrog (16 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> actually i was thinking Sean K looked a chance ( and not because he is mod )
> 
> 7200  at the end of the month  after the Xmas rush  looks possible  ( with the market  easing due to mostly retail participation  after the Xmas break )



And after the coming few days fall..7200 maybe indeed


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 December 2022)

qldfrog said:


> And after the coming few days fall..7200 maybe indeed



Looking as if Santa won't be rallying. 

And not too many trading days till EOY


----------



## divs4ever (16 December 2022)

my memory could be hazy  but the Santa Rally was rather late last year and there seems to be some derivative expiry dates  to negotiate  ( today and Monday  , Monday being the reaction to international markets  overnight )

 one would think some fund managers would be winding down  trading activities  next week  and unlikely to be very active until late January 

 if i am correct on the BIG money  easing back on activities , i would imagine the bigger traders would also reduce trading activity in the lighter markets


----------



## Sean K (16 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> actually i was thinking Sean K looked a chance ( and not because he is mod )
> 
> 7200  at the end of the month  after the Xmas rush  looks possible  ( with the market  easing due to mostly retail participation  after the Xmas break )




Only 9 trading days left, I'm a chance, but I hope not. @Gunnerguy might nail it at 7300.


----------



## divs4ever (16 December 2022)

i watch overall share volume over the day's trading for the last 3 months  and with a couple of exceptions  i am NOT impressed 

 add in the effects of buy-backs and i wonder who is buying ( much )   given the trends towards ETFs   i suspect a fair bit of turn-over is churn by market-makers 

 now today might be a biggie  ( turnover-wise ) but what of the next two weeks ??

 will the investors hold or take some profits and get ahead of the post-Xmas bills


----------



## Sean K (16 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i watch overall share volume over the day's trading for the last 3 months  and with a couple of exceptions  i am NOT impressed
> 
> add in the effects of buy-backs and i wonder who is buying ( much )   given the trends towards ETFs   i suspect a fair bit of turn-over is churn by market-makers




Some punters who normally buy individual shares might be using ETFs now but I think most of the ETF traffic might be from people switching from managed funds. Just a guess.


----------



## wayneL (16 December 2022)

Is there a prize for the wooden spoon, apart from a wooden spoon?


----------



## Sean K (16 December 2022)

wayneL said:


> Is there a prize for the wooden spoon, apart from a wooden spoon?




Bragging rights?

Or, maybe Joe could put a little wooden spoon next to your name under your avatar?


----------



## divs4ever (16 December 2022)

Sean K said:


> Bragging rights?
> 
> Or, maybe Joe could put a little wooden spoon next to your



wouldn't that confuse the newer members 

 between the  award winners and the resident stirrers ??


----------



## wayneL (16 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> wouldn't that confuse the newer members
> 
> between the  award winners and the resident stirrers ??



Stirrer? I'm offended. I'll have you that that there was some serious analysis about what level I wanted it to be... PE 8, 15% divvies (fully franked of course)

And please, do not employ any racist mathematical analysis to the above... As Monsieur Foucault has taught, truth is relative... And I can employ any sort of mathematical truths I feel like using.

As a matter of fact on December 31st I will identify as having the ASX at... whatever ridiculous number I pluck out of my backside (I can't actually remember lol).

Indeed, I will identify as the ASX at that point will be precisely the same as whatever number I said.

And once again, none of that racist cis mathematics please.


----------



## divs4ever (16 December 2022)

i was just hoping the market would bl**dy crash  and get some reality into the metrics  , but here we are  still above 7000


----------



## qldfrog (16 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i was just hoping the market would bl**dy crash  and get some reality into the metrics  , but here we are  still above 7000



see it that way, inflation at +7%..at very least
XNT( market+divs) on the last year +2% 
overall an index etf has lost more than 5% real value..it is substancial but indeed not free fall yet;
Note i would be happy to have a 2% gain on the last 12months as last FY was bad for me


----------



## divs4ever (16 December 2022)

will be interesting to see if the folks with super-funds ( as a client ) start making different choices  ( to say , self-manage , or just change fund managers ) am waiting for a fair drop before considering if and which ETFs to put cash into .

 my results are always  patchy because i venture into unpopular corners  looking for the gems  that may take a couple of years to shine  ( like say TUA )


----------



## Dona Ferentes (20 December 2022)

peter2 said:


> Three months later



And a few weeks later, @PZ99 at 7000 looking like being back in contention, though @qldfrog is probably lining up a tuxedo and polishing an acceptance speech, though 5800 is unlikely with only 6 trading days left.

_(6400, halfway, may not be_ !) (And 6399 will win it)


----------



## wayneL (20 December 2022)

I still have hope


----------



## wayneL (20 December 2022)

wayneL said:


> I still have hope




And as I said at the time probably more of a 2023 prediction.


----------



## divs4ever (20 December 2022)

wayneL said:


> I still have hope



 be VERY AFRAID if i suddenly look  a strong chance ( my pick was 55something )

 good luck


----------



## Logique2 (21 December 2022)

Santa's sleigh must be stuck in the queue at the charging station.

Gunnerguy and Sean K. likely to dice it out between 7200 - 7300


----------



## Sean K (23 December 2022)

US giving us a poor lead, once again. I might still be in the hunt for the chicken dinner.

Tesla continues to get smashed.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 December 2022)

wayneL said:


> please, do not employ any .. mathematical analysis to the above... As Monsieur Foucault has taught, truth is relative... And I can employ any sort of mathematical truths I feel like using..



But truth can get you into trouble. Stalin didn't like Kantorovich showing that central planning was inefficient (not optimal).


----------



## wayneL (23 December 2022)

Psst, hey @Knobby22 

Guess who the actual wooden spooner is?


----------



## Knobby22 (23 December 2022)

wayneL said:


> Psst, hey @Knobby22
> 
> Guess who the actual wooden spooner is?



Yea, didn't think the Ukraine war would go ahead and we would have a SP blow off. Didn't think Putin would be that stupid.

I actually got out of nearly everything in January and am still on the sidelines. Starting to get interested again but that's it.


----------



## divs4ever (23 December 2022)

wayneL said:


> Psst, hey @Knobby22
> 
> Guess who the actual wooden spooner is?



not me  ( as of Friday morning 23rd December )  but am certainly heading in that direction  , i would be surprised/delighted if 6500 doesn't hold


----------



## Knobby22 (23 December 2022)

And also I will have you know I learnt to play Stairway from Heaven when I was 14 and Jimmy Paige didn't write it till he was 24.
I think that says a lot.





(Stolen from Rik Mayal)


----------



## PZ99 (23 December 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> And also I will have you know I learnt to play Stairway from Heaven when I was 14 and Jimmy Paige didn't write it till he was 24.
> I think that says a lot.
> 
> 
> ...



That sounds like Bad News to me.. just like the last few days on the market


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 December 2022)

Logique2 said:


> Gunnerguy and Sean K. likely to dice it out between 7200 - 7300



Put on yr gloves, you two.  .... Only  two more trading days, and it is at *7262*. A drop of 25 pts today .


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 December 2022)

Snapshot at beginning of last day of trading 30 Dec.
@Sean K tipped 7200 and @Gunnerguy tipped 7300.

Likely to come down to 4:10 and whether it's profit-taking or locking in gains.


----------



## Sean K (30 December 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> View attachment 151033
> 
> Snapshot at beginning of last day of trading 30 Dec.
> @Sean K tipped 7200 and @Gunnerguy tipped 7300.
> ...




8 more pips and it's Gunnas. Under 6 more I get the chicken. Could it be a tie?


----------



## Sean K (30 December 2022)

Finished at 7221.

Send the roast chook to my joint @Joe Blow 

Bad luck @Gunnerguy, was a close race, to the end.


----------



## wayneL (30 December 2022)

Sean K said:


> Finished at 7221.
> 
> Send the roast chook to my joint @Joe Blow
> 
> ...



Confirmed in the futs after the close. Nailed it.


----------



## divs4ever (30 December 2022)

Sean K said:


> Finished at 7221.
> 
> Send the roast chook to my joint @Joe Blow
> 
> ...



 i don't know a about a dinner ( for me )

 i just got roasted  ( missed by more than 1500 points )

 congratulations to the closest pair  ( SeanK and Gunnerguy )

 nicely done 



 i will try to get within 1,400 points  next year 🤣


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 December 2022)

Most of us were quite _"free range", _in our punts


----------



## wayneL (30 December 2022)

Are we doing this again for 2023? I want I want to roll my prediction out 12 months


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 December 2022)

Yep. And got to include the 5 word  summary.

Here's  mine:
*7850 - *_recessions are good for markets_


----------



## Sean K (30 December 2022)

wayneL said:


> Are we doing this again for 2023? I want I want to roll my prediction out 12 months




My picks were for 2023 as well.


----------



## frugal.rock (30 December 2022)

2023 Pick;
*8333 *"Choppy until the bull arrives"


----------



## Gunnerguy (30 December 2022)

I will do as last year. Wait till all guesses are in, remove the 2 high and 2 low outliers, and average the rest. See statistics do work .....


----------



## frugal.rock (30 December 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> See statistics do work ....



3 sigma rule 🤖


----------



## Bill M (30 December 2022)

Bill M said:


> *Here is the final list of predictions as to where the XAO All Ords index will end up by year end 2022.*
> 
> 
> wayneL.....................4867....probably in for the wooden spoon
> ...




Well done Sean K, pretty good guess there mate.


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> For 2023, a new thread with the year in the title perhaps. I could dig out a garden gnome if a prize🏅🏆 would encourage entries.




That sounds like a great idea. I am going to step aside from this as I don't visit this site much these days, sometimes for Months. So if you would like to run it, please go ahead and I'll thrown in my best guess. I kind I live a very simple quiet retired life these days only investing in 2 ETF's within my super and a few capital notes outside of super. With the ongoing war in Europe which could be getting worse and high inflation I am surprised the market has held up this well. 

When you can pull 4.55% interest with an online savings account with a so called "government guarantee" I got a gut feeling a lot of older people might start selling off a lot more of their stocks to chase stress free interest income. I myself have sold down some of my ETF's and made some tidy profits and put the proceeds in 1 year term deposits at 4.35%. Should the market ever have that crash I'll be topping up as I always have done in the past, cheers.


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 December 2022)

Bill M said:


> When you can pull 4.55% interest with an online savings account with a so called "government guarantee" I got a gut feeling a lot of older people might start selling off a lot more of their stocks to chase stress free interest income.



That right there is a very important comment I think in light of recent and present financial market trends.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (31 December 2022)

Bill M said:


> That sounds like a great idea. I am going to step aside from this as I don't visit this site much these days ... So if you would like to run it, please go ahead and I'll thrown in my best guess. ..., cheers.



Am happy to compile the entries ... there doesn't seem to be any spreadsheet or running calculation needed, just a tally of, and, playing to my inner megalomaniac, absolute discretion over entries, so I'll give it a go.

In order to get numbers up, let's keep entries open till the *second half of January*, like the 2022 comp. I'll do a tally next Friday,  and the weekend following, with a CLOSE at midnight on Sunday 15 January. 

And thanks for your comments in the post. Gold Star stuff.


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Am happy to compile the entries ... there doesn't seem to be any spreadsheet or running calculation needed, just a tally of, and, playing to my inner megalomaniac, absolute discretion over entries, so I'll give it a go.
> 
> In order to get numbers up, let's keep entries open till the *second half of January*, like the 2022 comp. I'll do a tally next Friday,  and the weekend following, with a CLOSE at midnight on Sunday 15 January.
> 
> And thanks for your comments in the post. Gold Star stuff.



It all sounds great, looking forward to it and your way will no doubt look much more tidy than mine, cheers.


----------



## divs4ever (31 December 2022)

i will go for 

 5600 using the ' broken clock system '

 the extra 50 points is to allow for 'inflation'  under the current 'metrics'    i was going to suggest ' with a pinch of salt ' ( for the number ) but that would be tough to compare to other entries 

 good luck everyone


----------



## Logique2 (31 December 2022)

Quite the finish this year, right down to the last trading day, well done Sean K.

For 2023:
7,700  _Swings and Roundabouts. Bargain hunters._


----------



## Dona Ferentes (31 December 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Am happy to...give it a go.
> 
> In order to get numbers up, let's keep entries open till the *second half of January*, like the 2022 comp. I'll do a tally next Friday,  and the weekend following, with a CLOSE at midnight on Sunday 15 January.



But there again, with @Gunnerguy employing such nefarious tactics 👍, I could be like ASX and close randomly.

........
✌ _Five beers please_, asked the Roman


----------



## peter2 (31 December 2022)

For 2023 -  *6950*  Yes, another losing year. 

After a 10% dip early in the year, RBA pause rates near 5%, retirees sell a portion of their shares to take the 5 - 6% term deposit rates. The XAO slowly moves higher in the second half as our banks profit from the higher rates and commodities are still in demand. 

China struggles with their pandemic, US struggles with their depression, ASX struggles as the rest of the world is struggling. I won't be borrowing money at 9-10% to try and earn more in the stock market. I'm with @Bill M re the TDs.


----------



## Craton (31 December 2022)

Geez, this is one I've avoided as it is just in the "too hard" basket mainly, that I'm a layman but primarily due to so many unknowns and curve balls that life chucks at us over the course of 12 months.

ATM and with so many over-arching factors weighing on the market e.g.:
Inflation
Rising interest rates
The big R word aka recession
The Ukranian conflict (and possible escalation thereof)
Commodity cycles
Natural disasters (floods/fires/etc)
A non election year in the USA
Covid restrictions easing
China muscle flexing
Falling property prices
Lower dividends
Current All Ords downtrend
A major correction aka distribution
Some future unknown shock
...so on and so foreth.

That list does not bode well IMHO and a retraction to 4910 (or even lower into the high 3k's) then a bounce back is on the cards.
Thus indeed, what will the All Ords number be at the end of 2023?
My best guess: 6277 (+/- 500)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (31 December 2022)

When is the last day and time to enter the 2023 yearly comp?

I got a new set of darts for Christmas and am having difficulty opening up the plastic container. 

gg


----------



## frugal.rock (31 December 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> When is the last day and time to enter the 2023 yearly comp?






Dona Ferentes said:


> In order to get numbers up, let's keep entries open till the *second half of January*, like the 2022 comp. I'll do a tally next Friday, and the weekend following, with a CLOSE at midnight on Sunday 15 January.






Dona Ferentes said:


> I could be like ASX and close randomly.


----------



## Sean K (31 December 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Am happy to compile the entries ... there doesn't seem to be any spreadsheet or running calculation needed, just a tally of, and, playing to my inner megalomaniac, absolute discretion over entries, so I'll give it a go.
> 
> In order to get numbers up, let's keep entries open till the *second half of January*, like the 2022 comp. I'll do a tally next Friday,  and the weekend following, with a CLOSE at midnight on Sunday 15 January.
> 
> And thanks for your comments in the post. Gold Star stuff.




Potentially a triple bottom around 6600 in the first half of the year, Fed stops raising rates, money is printed again, and then it bounces back to the middle of the channel to 7400 ish. Something like the 2016 recovery. 

Unless Russia/Ukraine spills over into NATO or China invade Taiwan. Then, Wayne's Four Horsemen arrive.


----------



## divs4ever (31 December 2022)

Sean K said:


> Potentially a triple bottom around 6600 in the first half of the year, Fed stops raising rates, money is printed again, and then it bounces back to the middle of the channel to 7400 ish. Something like the 2016 recovery.
> 
> Unless Russia/Ukraine spills over into NATO or China invade Taiwan. Then, Wayne's Four Horsemen arrive.
> 
> ...



not Kosovo-Serbia ??

not so sure about the horsemen  but plenty of vipers on the ground, already


----------



## Knobby22 (31 December 2022)

A lot can go wrong and a lot can go right.
Closed at 7038.
I am a positive person so I am going for 7039


----------



## Dona Ferentes (31 December 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> A lot can go wrong and a lot can go right.
> Closed at 7038.
> I am a positive person so I am going for 7039



A lot can go wrong ...  7038 was the XJO ASX200 . The XAO All Ords was a bit higher close at 7222.


----------



## UMike (31 December 2022)

Going to be a tough year. I think: 
ASX 200 7025
All Ords 7175


----------



## Knobby22 (31 December 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> A lot can go wrong ...  7038 was the XJO ASX200 . The XAO All Ords was a bit higher close at 7222.



Ha, Ok thanks.
changing to  7223.


----------



## greggles (31 December 2022)

Any continued downturn in 2023 will be limited IMO. Lots of pessimism already priced in. I think commodities will boom in the second half of the year and the XAO will end the year at 8090.

The Ukraine war will be resolved by May following the implosion of the Russian economy. However, due to Russia's economic isolation this will not substantially affect Western economies and once the war is over the bulls will again take control.


----------



## macca (31 December 2022)

I am negative on the world economy ATM I think there are far too many potential hotspots to be confident.

I will call the double bottom as a future resistance point and go for 6543 for the XAO


----------



## Belli (31 December 2022)

Out of the thousands who make such predictions, given the sheer numbers of those who do so, someone will be right.   So I'll predict what that 'someone' predicts.


----------



## rcw1 (1 January 2023)

XAO 8567:   1637 Dutch tulip mania NOT

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Bill M (1 January 2023)

XAO 5995: War, Inflation, interest rates up.


----------



## KevinBB (1 January 2023)

As reluctant as I am to make a prediction:
XAO close on 29 December 2023: 5957.90

I originally thought losses of just a bit more than 20%, but had to reduce that loss figure to account for Santa. He didn't come in 2022, so he'll have to either arrive in early January 2023, or shower many more gifts in December 2023.

KH


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 January 2023)

6624 - No great disaster but general gloom


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 January 2023)

With the year 2022 ending at *7222* for the XAO All Ordinaries, here are *current* entries for full CY2023. 
_Comp closes late Sunday 15th Jan_. 

rcw1  .................... *8567* - 1637 Dutch tulip mania NOT
Frugal.rock .......... *8333 *- choppy until the bull arrives
greggles  .............. *8090* - downside limited, commodities will boom
Dona F.................. *7850 - *_recessions are good for markets_
Logique2 ............. *7700* - _Swings and Roundabouts. Bargain hunters_
Sean K ................. *7400* ish*. Something like the 2016 recovery.
Knobby22 ........... *7223* - A lot can go wrong
UMike.................. *7175* - Going to be tough year
Peter2 ................. *6950* - yes, another losing year
Smurf1976 ......... *6624* - No great disaster but general gloom
macca...................*6543* - double bottom as future resistance
Craton ................. *6277* - My best guess (+/- 500)
Bill M .................... *5995 *- War, Inflation, interest rates up
KevinBB ............... *5958 *- As reluctant as I am ...
divs4eva ............... *5600* - using the 'broken clock system'
rcw1 ..................... *1637* - Dutch tulip mania**

*7400 ish. @Sean K .... will be *7400* unless you update. No '_ish'_ about it
** allowing 2 entries


----------



## Sean K (2 January 2023)

Dona Ferentes said:


> With the year 2022 ending at *7222* for the XAO All Ordinaries, here are *current* entries for full CY2023.
> _Comp closes late Sunday 15th Jan_.
> 
> rcw1  .................... *8567* - 1637 Dutch tulip mania NOT
> ...




* No ish about it.

** If rcw1 wins, aliens have invaded.


----------



## divs4ever (2 January 2023)

Sean K said:


> ** If rcw1 wins, aliens have invaded.



illegal migrants or extraterrestrials ?  ( either way border security will be too busy  switching to renewable energy to react promptly )


----------



## qldfrog (2 January 2023)

Ok, an " optimistic view",
Recession starts, initial market collapse, huge recession hits and USD collapses followed in a lesser way by AUD vs yuan and rouble / gold then pivot, hyper inflation on the way 20% plus next december: 
xao shots to 8400 as everyone rushes back to minerals and PM mostly, bank dividends or anything pseudo real
8400 for me👍


----------



## divs4ever (2 January 2023)

qldfrog said:


> Recession starts, initial market collapse,



???

 as far as i can tell we had been in an actual ( not 'official' ) recession most of 2022 , AND  the NASDAQ   is down more than 30% from the highs in January 2022 .

 now the question is ... has the 'smart money ' noticed this , or are they still all 'sniffing flour ' ??

 nothing like a bit of panic among the blue-bloods to get the media pumping and dumping


----------



## qldfrog (3 January 2023)

divs4ever said:


> ???
> 
> as far as i can tell we had been in an actual ( not 'official' ) recession most of 2022 , AND  the NASDAQ   is down more than 30% from the highs in January 2022 .
> 
> ...



But so far, you do not have their ABC headlining about being in recession.
My own view is that a recession starts when a GDP is not increasing as much as extra debt added as deficit plus inflationary :
Look at it this way: you have $1m asset first of January, you borrow 100k during the year, inflation is 10% and by the end of the year, you have $1.15m in assets.
 Do you celebrate you are 50k richer?
I do not ,even if taxman will come and tax my "profit" while the headline will be about growth and super profits.
We have been in a recession but not acknowledge.
It will happen as job will start falling and company closing, rates will be blamed and pivots from feds occur then.with inflation AND unemployment.
this can happen at the same time and will trigger a run onto shares then, but not before further fall on the asx, which has been so protected this year vs the US market BTW.


----------



## divs4ever (3 January 2023)

qldfrog said:


> Do you celebrate you are 50k richer?



not really , 

 but increased dividends cheer me up  , or in some cases when the share prices drop and dividends hold firm ( and i can add more at a fair price )


----------



## rcw1 (3 January 2023)

divs4ever said:


> not really ,
> 
> but increased dividends cheer me up  , or in some cases when the share prices drop and dividends hold firm ( and i can add more at a fair price )



Hello divs4ever
there is one thing better than making coin... even better than dividends.. three letters ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Have a good day today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## divs4ever (3 January 2023)

rcw1 said:


> Hello divs4ever
> there is one thing better than making coin... even better than dividends.. three letters ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
> 
> Have a good day today.
> ...



it is going sideways  so far , but you never know when a silver-lining will appear 

 have a good day , yourself


----------



## Craton (3 January 2023)

Just a few more 

I probably have mentioned this elsewhere in the past but a few things I failed to note in my prediction list of impacts on the ASX (and generally across the global markets) in 2023:

Continued constrained fertilizer supply
The above will probably lead to massive food shortages in particular, rice which is the primary food energy/stable for over half the world's population and very fertilizer intensive.
With Russia's leader too committed in claiming Ukrainian land, I can't see an end anytime soon to this senseless war. How long will it take for Ukraine to again be able to export much needed wheat et al for the starving millions?
Sanctions of Russia has impacted this large supplier of fertilizer product.

Demographics - started a few years ago, globally the Boomers are retiring and liquidating stocks/assets for conservative income streams. With higher interest rates along with risk aversion, moving more cash to Term Deposits probably already started.
Population imbalance e.g.: China/Russia/Japan/Germany to name a few. Who's gonna take care of us oldies, who's going to replace high skilled jobs?
Thus, a labour shortage is leading to higher wages pushing up inflationary pressures.

Ban on imports of high and mid tier chip manufacturing, s/ware and expertise to China. Low tier chips not affected e.g.: IoT but the ban further impacted by China's increasing wage costs pushing up the cost of goods.
Also the neon supply issue critical for high end chip manufacture is severally impacted.

We all know too well that energy is needed for the goods and services we consume and for our comfy lifestyles. We also know that the Ukrainian conflict has put a huge spanner into this space. Despite China buying Russian energy at record levels, this doesn't help the West.

I think the ASX will be blown around a lot more by world events in 2023, moreso than what will happen here locally. Further, I think the world in now a vastly different place than 12 months ago and it may take years, or even decades before we return to an semblance of the "good ol' days".
Stock picking just got that little bit harder... 

Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/) makes for an interesting resource across many topics.


----------



## divs4ever (3 January 2023)

Craton said:


> Demographics - started a few years ago, globally the Boomers are retiring and liquidating stocks/assets for conservative income streams. With higher interest rates along with risk aversion, moving more cash to Term Deposits probably already started.
> Population imbalance e.g.: China/Russia/Japan/Germany to name a few. Who's gonna take care of us oldies, who's going to replace high skilled jobs?
> Thus, a labour shortage is leading to higher wages pushing up inflationary pressures.



well the THEORY IS 

 a lot of workers will be replaced by automation ( i hope the regiments of 'public servants' understand that because they are in the front-line for the chop, they are too heavy a load  on the income collection system and pension system  )

 they will try to fill the gap with migrants in the West  , it will go badly ( even though some plan to collapse the global economy , and the middle class )

 several decades ago i saw that eventually they will breed  a 'worker-species ' of humanoid  (  it's just how the elites think , nothing  new ) and that will destroy human civilization as we know it 

 the BIG question is  will the move to CBDCs succeed or fail  , if it succeeds all you have is a slave regulation system  ( they can't control their power-addiction , now  the craving will be worse later ) if it fails  that signifies the trust in government and currency is GONE 

now a second question is when will the (CBDC ) result be known


----------



## Craton (3 January 2023)

divs4ever said:


> well the THEORY IS
> 
> a lot of workers will be replaced by automation ( i hope the regiments of 'public servants' understand that because they are in the front-line for the chop, they are too heavy a load  on the income collection system and pension system  )



Automation can't replace critical thinking and high skilled jobs nor those that need F2F (Face2Face) case by case interaction IMHO.



divs4ever said:


> they will try to fill the gap with migrants in the West  , it will go badly ( even though some plan to collapse the global economy , and the middle class )



The global economy IS in collapse thanks to Putin's stupidity!


divs4ever said:


> several decades ago i saw that eventually they will breed  a 'worker-species ' of humanoid  (  it's just how the elites think , nothing  new ) and that will destroy human civilization as we know it



The so called "worker-species" have always been bred. My dearly departed old man was one such creature.
He had the opportunity in the mid '60's to relocate to Cronulla and become a manger within the then Public Works office. All relocation fees paid, a home provided that he could pay off interest free, twice the wage and a car provided. Mom loved the opportunity as she had immigrated family in that very locale.
Nope. We didn't move because my old man's work ethic was, go to work, go home, get paid with no further worries.

I often wonder how much different my life would have been had we moved from the far west of NSW to the "big smoke". In a way, I'm glad we didn't because, after living there (in Sydney) for ten years, city life is like an ants nest. Although I guess I'd be a surfie instead of a bushie, lol.


divs4ever said:


> the BIG question is  will the move to CBDCs succeed or fail  , if it succeeds all you have is a slave regulation system  ( they can't control their power-addiction , now  the craving will be worse later ) if it fails  that signifies the trust in government and currency is GONE
> 
> now a second question is when will the (CBDC ) result be known



*CBDC* I am assuming is the Central Bank Digital Currency.
This is interesting and problematic but no doubt will occur as the use of actual hard cash further declines.
Several countries already have their own CBDC.

How that pans out for those that don't have access to all things Internet will probably mean we'll be chucking up more satellites so they do.
More satellites means "big bro." is getting so much more in our faces!
But hey, that's progress right?
I'd say one always has two choices, use the system to one's advantage or not.


----------



## houtman (3 January 2023)

Strange times,

I can easily argue up or down, as there are so many variables atm,
So I used a random number generator, parameters 6000-8000.

It came up with 6178

Who am I to argue!


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 January 2023)

With the year 2022 ending at *7222* for the XAO All Ordinaries, here are *current* entries for full CY2023.
_Comp closes late Sunday 15th Jan_.

rcw1 .................... *8567* - 1637 Dutch tulip mania NOT
qldfrog ................ *8400* - collapse then rebound plus some
Frugal.rock ......... *8333 *- choppy until the bull arrives
greggles .............. *8090* - downside limited, commodities will boom
Dona F.................. *7850 - *_recessions are good for markets_
Logique2 ............. *7700* - _Swings and Roundabouts. Bargain hunters_
Sean K ................. *7400* - Something like the 2016 recovery.
Knobby22 ........... *7223* - A lot can go wrong
UMike.................. *7175* - Going to be tough year
Peter2 ................. *6950* - yes, another losing year
Smurf1976 ......... *6624* - No great disaster but general gloom
macca...................*6543* - double bottom as future resistance
Craton ................. *6277* - My best guess (+/- 500)
houtman ............. *6178* - Who am I to argue!
Bill M .................... *5995 *- War, Inflation, interest rates up
KevinBB ............... *5958 *- As reluctant as I am ...
divs4eva ............... *5600* - using the 'broken clock system'
wayneL ................. *4867* - same as for last year
rcw1 ..................... *1637* - Dutch tulip mania*

* allowing 2 entries.


Craton said:


> Automation can't replace critical thinking and high skilled jobs nor those that need F2F (Face2Face) case by case interaction IMHO.
> 
> 
> The global economy IS in collapse thanks to Putin's stupidity!
> ...



So, @Craton,  a five word summary?


----------



## wayneL (3 January 2023)

Dona Ferentes said:


> With the year 2022 ending at *7222* for the XAO All Ordinaries, here are *current* entries for full CY2023.
> _Comp closes late Sunday 15th Jan_.
> 
> rcw1 .................... *8567* - 1637 Dutch tulip mania NOT
> ...



You missed mine, which was the same number as for 2022


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 January 2023)

wayneL said:


> You missed mine, which was the same number as for 2022



Got it in ... within the 15 minute edit. Any change to the 5 word narrative?


----------



## Craton (3 January 2023)

Dona Ferentes said:


> So, @Craton,  a five word summary?



Fortune telling, a mug's game.


----------



## wayneL (3 January 2023)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Got it in ... within the 15 minute edit. Any change to the 5 word narrative?



Hero or zero


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 January 2023)

And the 'spurts have gleaned a narrower range.
NOTE: it's ASX200 so there's about 200 pts difference, with XAO being higher.

S&P/ASX 200 Index 2023 year-end price targets (pts)​AMP  ........................7600
JPMorgan ...............7400
MST Marquee ........7400
UBS .........................7250
Morgan Stanley......7200
RBC CapMarkets ...7200
Credit Suisse ..........6700

_timid bunch, nobody is really going out on a limb._


----------



## divs4ever (4 January 2023)

Craton said:


> Automation can't replace critical thinking and high skilled jobs nor those that need F2F (Face2Face) case by case interaction IMHO.



LOL  , critical thinking is now a dangerous extremist philosophy ( unless you are talking about race ) everything else they will fake with AI  , wait and see


Craton said:


> The global economy IS in collapse thanks to Putin's stupidity!



i disagree  the economy broke in September 2019  and everything else has been a distraction while the rescue packages have been dished out to selected buddies ( like Boeing )

Craton :
*CBDC* I am assuming is the Central Bank Digital Currency.

  yes your are correct 

 cheers


----------



## Dona Ferentes (Monday at 7:29 AM)

_Less than a week before 2023 comp entries close._

Yearly XAO Prediction Thread​
rcw1 .................... *8567* - 1637 Dutch tulip mania NOT
qldfrog ................ *8400* - collapse then rebound plus some
Frugal.rock ......... *8333 *- choppy until the bull arrives
greggles .............. *8090* - downside limited, commodities will boom
Dona F.................. *7850 - *recessions are good for markets
Logique2 ............. *7700* - Swings and Roundabouts. Bargain hunters
Sean K ................. *7400* - Something like the 2016 recovery.
Knobby22 ........... *7223* - A lot can go wrong
UMike................... *7175* - Going to be tough year
Peter2 .................. *6950* - yes, another losing year
Smurf1976 .......... *6624* - No great disaster but general gloom
macca....................*6543* - double bottom as future resistance
Craton .................. *6277* - Fortune telling, a mug's game
houtman .............. *6178* - Who am I to argue!
Bill M ..................... *5995 *- War, Inflation, interest rates up
KevinBB ................ *5958 *- As reluctant as I am ...
divs4eva ................ *5600* - using the 'broken clock system'
wayneL .................. *4867* - Hero or Zero


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (Monday at 8:00 AM)

10946.

A Fibonnaci number from a contrarian. 

gg


----------



## hopeing (Monday at 9:01 AM)

Hi, 8950 for me . Who doth knows.
 Looked at monthly chart and thought obtainable, also see a much lower number obtainable, flipped a coin an up it is.


----------



## debtfree (Monday at 3:18 PM)

I better have a shot at this Comp, please put me down for 7550 thanks @Dona Ferentes. *Brief thoughts why:* 68.98% of the highest pick.
Plenty of gaps (in red) left for others to have a go, grab a spot before it closes.
I couldn't fit GG in the screenshot


----------



## divs4ever (Monday at 3:30 PM)

Dona Ferentes said:


> wayneL .................. *4867* - Hero or Zero



 wayneL will be my hero if he is correct


----------



## Dona Ferentes (Monday at 3:45 PM)

debtfree said:


> I better have a shot at this Comp, please put me down for 7550 thanks @Dona Ferentes. *Brief thoughts why:* 68.98% of the highest pick.



👍


debtfree said:


> Plenty of gaps (in red) left for others to have a go, grab a spot before it closes.



36 entries in the monthly, 33 in the yearly stockpick comp; maybe the reticent are awaiting a cash prize?


debtfree said:


> I couldn't fit GG in the screenshot



Yup, we try to accommodate him.


----------



## Captain_Chaza (Monday at 5:10 PM)

*Using my  Fibonacci Extension Indicator i'll go conservative and Target 9,000 for this year

Sailing the XAO  for2023   ___ One Month at a Time




*


----------



## brerwallabi (Monday at 5:14 PM)

I will take my car number plate number which is 7826 which is quite feasible.
Thanks


----------



## farmerge (Monday at 5:50 PM)

brerwallabi said:


> I will take my car number plate number which is 7826 which is quite feasible.
> Thanks



Will be interesting to see how the juggernaut travels


----------



## Dona Ferentes (Monday at 6:24 PM)

brerwallabi said:


> I will take my car number plate number which is 7826 which is quite feasible.
> Thanks



Personalised??


----------



## brerwallabi (Yesterday at 9:03 AM)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Personalised??



Highly


----------



## Sean K (Yesterday at 9:42 AM)

brerwallabi said:


> Highly




Is that your banking PIN brerwallabi?


----------



## brerwallabi (Today at 2:01 PM)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Personalised??



I was surveying my gardens with thoughts of where the market would end up at years end when my eyes locked onto the number plate of my car.
Not sure if it’s a bad or good omen for bulls well at least the market will be up.


----------



## brerwallabi (Today at 2:03 PM)

Sean K said:


> Is that your banking PIN brerwallabi?



No please see previous post ‘‘twas an omen.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (Today at 2:06 PM)

brerwallabi said:


> I was surveying my gardens with thoughts of where the market would end up at years end when my eyes locked onto the number plate of my car.
> Not sure if it’s a bad or good omen for bulls well at least the market will be up.



At least you didn't drill down and enter the VIN. That would be beyond bullish. 


> _Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) is *your car's 17 character unique identifier*._


----------

