# BNDX ETF Vanguard US$ Hedged Total Gobal Quality Bonds



## notting (15 August 2019)

Check out the volume that bucketed into this thing during Feb when the stock market reversed it's December 2018 20% smack down that was triggered by the September 2018 interest rates rise of 25 basis points. The Fed said that it would keep its target range for its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% to 2.5%, then reiterated this range on December 19, 2018.
 This represents the ninth increase in the target *rate* since tightening began in December 2015 - December 2018. Indicating at least not another rate rise in the medium term.
The *last* full cycle of *rate increases* occurred between June 2004 and June 2006 as *rates* steadily rose from 1.00% to 5.25%. in 2 years.







I was calling a Bond market bubble at the first red arrow!!,  Which was right for a few months.  Then......Not so much!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What would you call it now? A bond market black hole that is sucking all the finances of the world into it!?
Remembering that Bond markets and stock markets traditionally move in different directions.
We have never seen anything like this before as the safety of Bonds compete with desperation for yield and yes Gold and bitcoin have been catalyzing up too.
It's a new world and know one seems to know what is going to happen next!


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## aus_trader (16 August 2019)

Really good analysis, well done. Yes, desperation for safe yield in graphical / chart form. I refuse to believe you are dyslexic with this type of analysis ! 

I also agree with the fact that we are in a 'new world' of near zero interest rates for the long term with possible sub-zero rates in the future if giant economies go all out war at paying people to borrow for 'growth at any cost' scenario. Would be an interesting scenario if that arises in this new world being created, who pays for the borrowers in the -ve interest rate environment ? Is it the savers i.e. be penalised for holding cash in bank deposits ?


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## So_Cynical (16 August 2019)

Something has to give soon - super low global interest rates, asset bubbles everywhere, runaway US debt and high debt levels elsewhere but not everywhere, low global growth.

Is capitalism the problem? did it just take a very long time to fail? i mean it's the capitalists running the show, central banks, big finance and industry - it's all falling over.


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## notting (16 August 2019)

Global stagnation is perhaps is the new norm.


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## notting (22 August 2019)

*Jaws Music Please -*
“It remains to be seen whether this is the beginning of some push back on the part of investors to this insanity of negative rates. We’ll have to see for now,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group. ”‘People said ‘I can’t buy this,’ so that’s why they(Germany) sold less than half of what they were hoping for ... They were hoping to sell 2 billion euros worth. That’s why we call it *a failed auction.”*


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## sptrawler (22 August 2019)

notting said:


> Global stagnation is perhaps is the new norm.



They are still trying to work out how to get rid of all this "debt" from quantitative easing, while still keeping confidence in the fiat money system.
They can't just say, oh well it is all gone now, or people would say oh well so has all my debt then. 
At the moment they have the road show, starring Donald, Boris, Xi and Vladimir, keeping everyone's mind off it. 
Just my opinion, not that I have a clue.


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## aus_trader (24 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> They are still trying to work out how to get rid of all this "debt" from quantitative easing, while still keeping confidence in the fiat money system.
> They can't just say, oh well it is all gone now, or people would say oh well so has all my debt then.
> At the moment they have the road show, starring Donald, Boris, Xi and Vladimir, keeping everyone's mind off it.
> Just my opinion, not that I have a clue.



I don't think you don't have a clue in this matter, I think they want to continue as normal printing away, without causing shocks to all the paper and derivative assets where all this money has been flowing into over the years.

Markets are quite volatile: up one day down the next. I am not playing it when it's this volatile, the chance of being chopped up and spat out is much higher. Good time to do a bit of stock research and continue to find stocks of interest to put in a watchlist.

I also look for ways to profit from the "flight to safety" by looking for dividend paying stocks that are less cyclical or even better if they have 'recession proof' type of characteristic to them IMO, such as my recent purchase of Charter Hall Education Trust (CQE) which offers overs above 4% yield with quarterly distributions (i.e. pays 4 times a year) that has been growing:






Also added a mid-Cap Gold miner to the stocks in my portfolio today since they have had a good pull back recently and IMO Gold could continue higher...


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