# PNV - Polynovo Limited



## Joe Blow (27 May 2010)

Calzada Limited (CZD), formerly named Metabolic Pharmaceuticals Limited (MBP) is a biotechnology company involved in the development of pharmaceutical treatments for metabolic diseases.

For previous discussion of this company please see the MBP thread, which can be found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=641


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## Purple XS2 (31 May 2010)

*Re: CZD - Calzada Limited*

Calzada in its previous incarnation as Metabolic set an impressive benchmark in a SP crash after bad trial results, a couple of years ago.

Now (as CZD) they've recently become a substantial shareholder in Avexa (asx:AVX), following Avexa's almost as impressive dive following the abandonment of Avexa's lead product (Atricitabine "ATC").
Opinions vary as to whether CZD's objective is to soak up Avexa's remaining cash balance (some 25 $Mil, as I understand) or whether there isn't some more strategic vision thing happening.

Any thoughts from CZD's holders on this?

Discl: sad holder of AVX.  I don't hold CZD.


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## sharezum (20 October 2010)

*Re: CZD - Calzada Limited*

I hold CZD but have no thoughts on it apart from the fact that it has lifted by over 50% in the last few days.


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## StumpyPhantom (27 March 2012)

*Re: CZD - Calzada Limited*



Purple XS2 said:


> Calzada in its previous incarnation as Metabolic set an impressive benchmark in a SP crash after bad trial results, a couple of years ago.
> 
> Now (as CZD) they've recently become a substantial shareholder in Avexa (asx:AVX), following Avexa's almost as impressive dive following the abandonment of Avexa's lead product (Atricitabine "ATC").
> Opinions vary as to whether CZD's objective is to soak up Avexa's remaining cash balance (some 25 $Mil, as I understand) or whether there isn't some more strategic vision thing happening.
> ...




I'm a sad Avexer as well!!

When I heard the news that AVX was cannibalising itself by closing ATC down, I thought there was something fishy going on.  I thought someone was going to buy this moth-balled intellectual property and then do what the new board has recently achieved.

The aggression with which CZD came in also suggested something was on, so now AVX is back to having some future value (even if only as a takeover target).  I need it to et back up to 10 cents before I break even.

Does anyone think it will do that?


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## System (1 December 2014)

On December 1st, 2014, Calzada Limited (CZD) changed its name and ASX code to Polynovo Limited (PNV).


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## greggles (24 May 2018)

Polynovo Limited looks like it has broken out today with a confident move through 60c, finishing the day up 12.96% at 61c. No announcement behind the jump in share price so perhaps there is some news around the corner?

PNV has had a great run up from sub-20c to 60c since August last year, although September to January were where most of those gains were.


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## Knobby22 (25 May 2018)

Got in today at 59c.


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## kid hustlr (31 October 2018)

Looks as good as any chart at the moment and there has been a bit of talk in the biotech space from what I can see on the charts.

I struggle with these smaller cap stocks which trade 'chunky' as I find buy the time I buy the high the move is half gone. As such I'll buy half size tomorrow and look to buy the rest if 62 cracks.


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## Trav. (27 December 2018)

Full CY19 Tipping Comp

Trending up over the last year, and hopefully will BO-NH $0.625 to give a nice return


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## Boggo (28 February 2019)

Seems to be going ok, went long last week.
Not sure why I haven't been in since late 2018.

(click to expand)


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## Smurf1976 (28 February 2019)

Price has just closed a gap on the chart going back to 2007 for those looking at the longer term picture.


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## rnr (28 February 2019)

Boggo said:


> Seems to be going ok, went long last week.
> Not sure why I haven't been in since late 2018.
> 
> (click to expand)
> View attachment 92596



@Boggo Wouldn't that have been since late 2017?


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## Boggo (28 February 2019)

rnr said:


> @Boggo Wouldn't that have been since late 2017?




Quite correct rnr


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## Knobby22 (31 March 2019)

This a a very good company with a very successful product. Almost selected it for this month's comp. Been a bit of a winner for me.


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## Knobby22 (9 April 2019)

Presentation went well in NY. Looks to me like a breakout in the offing.


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## $20shoes (10 April 2019)

Very Exuberant buying today. Very rare that you get a daily candle closing outside of the Hull's Actvest (daily) upper cord which should signal a profit taking opportunity. I personally dont use a profit taker, but will interesting to see how it progresses over the coming weeks.


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## Knobby22 (11 April 2019)

$20shoes said:


> Very Exuberant buying today. Very rare that you get a daily candle closing outside of the Hull's Actvest (daily) upper cord which should signal a profit taking opportunity. I personally dont use a profit taker, but will interesting to see how it progresses over the coming weeks.




Polynovo is a small cap and has no research that I can find.
It has a product that works spectacularly well returns of nearly 50% over the last 5 years and is now rolling it out in the USA. The presentation in NY is worth reading.

As there is little research, fundamental investors that go to the effort of understanding the company can do well as they will be among a select few who have looked at it. I am having trouble pricing this company but it will be much easier to price in a years time. 
I think the price could go easily to $2 within a year and I won't be selling at that price.


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## tech/a (15 April 2019)

Got on this early today 
I’ll post a chart if others are interested


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## Boggo (15 April 2019)

Does this formula generated commentary make sense tech/a ?

(click to expand)


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## Country Lad (15 April 2019)

My simple system of Darvas, divergence between OBV and Siroc, break from P&F, break through CBL AND positive momentum in the trading all within 2 days saw me enter this one on 9th after the breaks the day before.  Just to show how widely different systems work well.  Anybody else done it differently?


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## tech/a (16 April 2019)

Both are excellent.
Came late to the party 
but will be happy with what I can get.


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## tech/a (16 April 2019)




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## rnr (19 April 2019)

PNV looks like it's setting up to move higher!


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## BoNeZ (21 April 2019)

rnr said:


> View attachment 93953
> 
> 
> PNV looks like it's setting up to move higher!




It's had a nice run up after a presentation in New York on 8 April from $0.745 to $0.96 and is probably due a consolidation before hopefully heading higher.

I brought in Jan and am letting it run hoping for a huge winner.


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## SuperGlue (1 May 2019)

Good news.

Just out about 40 minutes ago.

"PolyNovo granted US Department of Defence and other access to Federal supply contracts"

http://imagesignal.commsec.com.au/d...nZXNpZ25hbC9lcnJvcnBhZ2VzL3BkZmRlbGF5ZWQuanNw


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## Knobby22 (2 May 2019)

More good news, now making money..
My only regret is that though I doubled up at 74c (60c first buy) I should have triple up. Never been so relaxed owning a share.

At the AGM in November 2018 the Chairman advised shareholders that at the then company cost base, a million-dollar revenue per month was a rough indicator the company was at or close to break-even.

While, PolyNovo has said previously that it does not intend to issue quarterly financial statements it would like to inform shareholders it has had its first million-dollar month.

PolyNovo is pleased to announced
•   Revenue from BTM sales for the month of April are more than $1M (April 2018 $321,363); and
•   Revenue from sales for BTM in Australia and New Zealand only are more than $1M year to date
(YTD April 2018 $66,048)


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## Knobby22 (28 May 2019)

Has consolidated.
Beginning next run up.


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## rnr (9 June 2019)

Price has moved on from the April 19th post with a breakout of the $0.96 high and would now seem to be consolidating ready to take out the latest high of $1.31. It will be interesting to see whether there is an increase in resistance around the $1.37 to $1.40 mark.


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## Zaxon (9 June 2019)

rnr said:


> View attachment 95311
> 
> Price has moved on from the April 19th post with a breakout of the $0.96 high and would now seem to be consolidating ready to take out the latest high of $1.31.



PNV has certainly shown remarkable growth.  Plus, if their hernia application goes ahead, that will spur a whole new source of growth.


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## barney (11 June 2019)

Zaxon said:


> PNV has certainly shown remarkable growth.  Plus, if their hernia application goes ahead, that will spur a whole new source of growth.




Been going gangbusters since the start of the year …. the $1.30 area is looking a bit stubborn but its a great looking chart


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## rnr (15 July 2019)

Since my last post price has moved to make a high of $1.87 on July 9th. If the current price action turns out to be an a-b-c retracement it would not be unreasonable to expect price to move higher.
There is an unfilled gap between $1.98 & $2.04 which could provide some resistance.
The ATH is at $2.50.


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## Knobby22 (16 July 2019)

Look at the short term traders sell.
They run it up and run it down.  They don't even know why they sell except it hit their stop loss.
I wonder which big investor who missed out earlier is buying now. I hope it falls further and tempts me to increase my holding.


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## Boggo (16 July 2019)

My stop is according to the chart below @ 1.36. You have to make room for these corrections.

(click to expand)


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## Knobby22 (16 July 2019)

I've put a bid in if it drops a bit more.


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## rnr (4 August 2019)

You can't help but get the feeling that PNV has been consolidating over the last 18 bars just building strength to take out the unfilled gap between $1.98 and $2.04. Time will tell!


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## Knobby22 (23 August 2019)

Back up to its highs.
The company is now profitable.
They are expanding by buying the adjacent land to supply their new product ranges.
In 6 months I expect the price to be well above $2.


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## Knobby22 (9 September 2019)

In the S&P top 200 now.


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## tinhat (30 September 2019)

This is my pick for the October '19 stock picking comp. Congratulations to all those who jumped onto this earlier on. It's been coming up on my scans for a while now and I read into it a few weeks ago but decided to buy NAN (no regrets there) instead of PNV - why I didn't buy both aargh.

It has run hard (being included into the ASX200 would have helped) and now has a market cap of $1.4 billion which is a bit eye-watering given that the consensus forecast earnings are $25m in FY20 and $40m in FY21. That said, I can understand the market interest. A lot of blue sky here most likely.

I chose PNV in particular because the share price does seem to have a lot of momentum behind it and now that it is in the ASX200 it should keep attracting more attention. I was interested in picking a Biotech for this month as it seems that biotechs and IT seem to be sectors that are building up steam. Maybe as this leg-up in the stock market starts to run out of some puff and the low hanging fruit has been picked, the hot money will start flowing more into biotechs.

I'll definitely look to enter into this stock. One for the long term I hope.



Knobby22 said:


> Back up to its highs.
> The company is now profitable.
> They are expanding by buying the adjacent land to supply their new product ranges.
> In 6 months I expect the price to be well above $2.




Christmas came early for you this year. You only had to wait a couple of weeks.


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## Knobby22 (1 October 2019)

tinhat said:


> This is my pick for the October '19 stock picking comp.
> It has run hard (being included into the ASX200 would have helped) and now has a market cap of $1.4 billion which is a bit eye-watering given that the consensus forecast earnings are $25m in FY20 and $40m in FY21. That said, I can understand the market interest. A lot of blue sky here most likely.
> 
> I chose PNV in particular because the share price does seem to have a lot of momentum behind it and now that it is in the ASX200 it should keep attracting more attention. .




Good first day!


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## tinhat (3 October 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Good first day!




I probably should have looked at the chart a bit more carefully before selecting this for the Oct comp (serves me right for leaving it to the last minute). It looks like it is in distribution, highlighted by the price action around the huge spike in volume on 20 September. If I were to chose a biotech to tip for Oct 19 today, based on the recent chart action alone, it would be ANP (which I hold). I don't hold PNV yet, so looking for an entry.


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## Knobby22 (4 October 2019)

Yes, I was thinking that at the time. After such a rise new news is required and I don't think the SP will do much till the next report.
You never know though as it is not a science.


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## Knobby22 (10 October 2019)

Coming good Tinhat!


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## IFocus (10 October 2019)

Lovely work gents long may it continue


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## tinhat (21 October 2019)

It appears I bought PNV today sort of by accident. I usually review and close off open orders over the weekend but didn't get time this weekend and completely forgot that I had a buy order in @ 2.31. Here is hoping that 2.30 is the new support.


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## Boggo (22 November 2019)

It's been a great ride but for now we must part ways. We may meet again soon ?

(click to expand)


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## kid hustlr (22 November 2019)

A few of the stock tip leaders will be starting to sweat


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## barney (22 November 2019)

Boggo said:


> It's been a great ride but for now we must part ways. We may meet again soon ?




You do realise that once you sell, Murphy's Law stipulates that it will reverse with gusto


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## Boggo (22 November 2019)

barney said:


> You do realise that once you sell, Murphy's Law stipulates that it will reverse with gusto




Yes, especially when I jump the gun and sell a day early on a weekly system


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## aus_trader (22 November 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> A few of the stock tip leaders will be starting to sweat



With just over a month to go, still could be anyone's game on the yearly competition...


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## kid hustlr (22 November 2019)

Sold the low boggo!!!


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## Boggo (22 November 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> Sold the low boggo!!!




Yes, saw that it was hovering around my stop yesterday. Had a look this morning and thought I can beat my system so if I sell now etc etc.
Quite often getting in on a new buy a day early works well but this cost me 8c per share and brokerage x 2 to get back in when it became obvious that the stop would likely be still intact at the close.

I should have just taken my early tee off time for golf instead of switching on the computer


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## myrtie100 (22 November 2019)

If that's a Head & Shoulders - it might fall a little further.
My weekly system also says 'out' on Monday.
And hahahahaaa - there are 3 leaders (above me) in the yearly comp which all hold this one


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## Knobby22 (13 December 2019)

CE mark obtained, shorters vanquished.
I bought a few more at $1.67. Now my largest holding except for CSL.


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## tinhat (13 December 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> CE mark obtained, shorters vanquished.
> I bought a few more at $1.67. Now my largest holding except for CSL.



Nice timing. I've averaged down but bought too high. One to hold for the long term.


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## Dona Ferentes (18 December 2019)

Ha ha, the hotshots can't get it right all the time. From the Nov 2019 conference:

*Sohn stock pick: Regal’s Phil King - SHORT PolyNovo (PNV ASX)*
_There’s a lot of expensive stocks out there and one only has to look at the ASX: If the FAANG stocks look toppy trading on a multiple of 5 times *sales*, what then to make of the Aussie tech stocks trading on 13 times?_
_
“The biggest bubble in the Australian stockmarket today is Australian biotech,” King says, christening them the PPANCs (PolyNovo, Pro Medicus, Avita Medical, Nanosonics and Clinuvel.)

Regal is actually long Avita, but “we needed the vowel”. Healthcare stocks in Australia are prone to bubbles, King warns. We don’t have the big pharmaceutical companies like Europe, and Australians aren’t that good at valuing them. Passive investing has surely helped fuel the rally, as four out of five PPANC stocks have joined the ASX 200. PolyNovo is singled out as having the most downside. “We think the competition’s well established, the company’s still losing money and it’s never delivered on expectations,” King says, adding: “there’s no room for disappointment”._


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## Knobby22 (7 January 2020)

Polynovo on trading halt, could be more good news.

In my opinion there is an effort to shake out weak holders and get on board. Strong selling on low volume days is part of this.

I just hope it's not a takeover offer. This has happened to me before.


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## barney (7 January 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Polynovo on trading halt, could be more good news.
> 
> In my opinion there is an effort to shake out weak holders and get on board. Strong selling on low volume days is part of this.
> 
> I just hope it's not a takeover offer. This has happened to me before.




Announcement re significant uplift in sales ….. sounds positive!


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## Knobby22 (7 January 2020)

barney said:


> Announcement re significant uplift in sales ….. sounds positive!



Yes, I can relax.
Hit $2mil a month sales, we know they are profitable from 1mil a month sales so nice.
Also as Europe is now ramping up I would hope for at least 3mil for June.


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## galumay (7 January 2020)

What a stonk! A pointless TH to announce a $1.3b cap company has revenue of $2m for the month. 
I guess its all part of the pump & ramp. 

Pardon my cynicism, probably sounds like sour grapes. Truly, I dont begrudge anyone who has banked a profit - I just see a train wreck coming.


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## Knobby22 (7 January 2020)

galumay said:


> What a stonk! A pointless TH to announce a $1.3b cap company has revenue of $2m for the month.
> I guess its all part of the pump & ramp.
> 
> Pardon my cynicism, probably sounds like sour grapes. Truly, I dont begrudge anyone who has banked a profit - I just see a train wreck coming.




Have a look at the fundamentals galumay. You may find it interesting.
Maybe wait to the next report in February.


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## galumay (7 January 2020)

I did have a look Knobby, thats what led me to conclude its a stonk! 

I first looked at it in detail a couple of years ago and couldn't see an investible business then, I still dont. 

Just reverse engineer the market cap to arrive at earnings that would represent fair value.


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## Knobby22 (7 January 2020)

They have only just built the factory and got the licenses. (Literally the European medical licence last month).
Earnings is just starting, they are still hiring the sales teams.
It is a medical device scaffolding technology that is much better than the existing technologies for plastic surgery, burns, hernias etc.

I suggest you come back in two years time and relook at it then.


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## galumay (7 January 2020)

If they could grow earnings in 2 years, with no increase in share price, to the tens of millions of $'s required to provide a sensible return on capital, I will be suitably impressed!


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## Knobby22 (7 January 2020)

galumay said:


> If they could grow earnings in 2 years, with no increase in share price, to the tens of millions of $'s required to provide a sensible return on capital, I will be suitably impressed!




I can promise truly  massive earnings growth, but you know the share market.


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## tinhat (8 January 2020)

galumay said:


> If they could grow earnings in 2 years, with no increase in share price, to the tens of millions of $'s required to provide a sensible return on capital, I will be suitably impressed!




Let's agree to meet here again in January 2022 to see where PNV is at in terms of earnings, return on equity and share price then. I hold.


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## galumay (8 January 2020)

sounds like a plan, I will set a reminder and check back in. (If I last that long!!)


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## Boggo (22 January 2020)

Follow on from here...
PNV - Polynovo Limited

Buy was set at $2.61 so it looks like I'm back in.

(click to expand)


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## tinhat (22 January 2020)

Boggo said:


> Follow on from here...
> PNV - Polynovo Limited
> 
> Buy was set at $2.61 so it looks like I'm back in.
> ...




I think this a good example of getting back into a stock when you think the timing is right. Too often, I forget all about a stock that I have sold out of because I tend to subconsciously psychologically "walk away" from them as if they are past girlfriends. Selling a stock is not the same as breaking-up with your girlfriend. Stocks are more like friends with benefits!


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## Ferret (22 January 2020)

I bought in at $1.98 two weeks ago.

I know what they say about letting your winners run, but I'm getting a bit nervous.  

40% in two weeks is nice.  Hope I'm not being too greedy!


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## tinhat (22 January 2020)

Boggo said:


> Follow on from here...
> PNV - Polynovo Limited
> 
> Buy was set at $2.61 so it looks like I'm back in.
> ...



What's your target price @Boggo?


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## Boggo (22 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> What's your target price @Boggo?




Firstly, stop placement is more important than target projections imo.

The more erratic the stock movement the more likely an inaccurate projection but based on the 1.272 (127.2) projection around $3.43 ($3.05 minimum ??) for PNV.

This method is unreliable on volatile stocks, usually much more accurate on large caps and the likes of TLS etc, gets distorted with the profit takers/sell offs etc on fast movers.
Similiar to EW, it probably works about 50% of the time on 50% of stocks, not suited to speccies imo.

An explanation of the process on here with chart example...
http://chart-formations.com/fibonacci/projections.aspx


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## tinhat (22 January 2020)

Boggo said:


> Firstly, stop placement is more important than target projections imo.
> 
> The more erratic the stock movement the more likely an inaccurate projection but based on the 1.272 (127.2) projection around $3.43 ($3.05 minimum ??) for PNV.
> 
> ...




Thanks. Did you know that the golden ratio is the most irrational possible number? That is why it is so important in nature because if you distribute something at intervals calculated using the golden ratio you get the most even distribution because no rational number will clash with it. All the nodes in the mandelbrot set are distributed and structured according to the fibonacci ratio (the golden mean). I learnt that on the weekend while I was trying to learn what imaginary numbers are and how they work.


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## Dona Ferentes (4 February 2020)

there's a gushing interview with Alan Kohler that can be viewed on the PNV website, as well as Eureka and whatever other business promotional websites AK is involved with.

Paul Kennan, the CEO, talks the PNV book well. Kohler is well briefed, or at least fed the right questions that the interviewee can expand upon. I have some reservations about this form of promotional exercise (aka journalism) as the relationship isn't spelled out. I would only imagine it's not uncompensated. That said, as grist to the mill, it has some uses. There is some interesting stuff (for the lay person) that spells out how PNV is differentiated from, say, AVH; but is that just talking the book?

_(I generally watch the SP around this time, to see whether it's real or just the gullible piling in)_


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## Boggo (4 February 2020)

These bio/pharma/medical stocks (a way of describing them, to me they start out as chart patterns) seem to be doing well.

In addition to PNV I also hold RMD and PAR in my smsf and they have led the way so far.


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## Miner (5 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> I think this a good example of getting back into a stock when you think the timing is right. Too often, I forget all about a stock that I have sold out of because I tend to subconsciously psychologically "walk away" from them as if they are past girlfriends. Selling a stock is not the same as breaking-up with your girlfriend. Stocks are more like friends with benefits!



Curiously if you have broken with girlfriends as many times as you broke with shares  LOL


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## Miner (5 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> there's a gushing interview with Alan Kohler that can be viewed on the PNV website, as well as Eureka and whatever other business promotional websites AK is involved with.
> 
> Paul Kennan, the CEO, talks the PNV book well. Kohler is well briefed, or at least fed the right questions that the interviewee can expand upon. I have some reservations about this form of promotional exercise (aka journalism) as the relationship isn't spelled out. I would only imagine it's not uncompensated. That said, as grist to the mill, it has some uses. There is some interesting stuff (for the lay person) that spells out how PNV is differentiated from, say, AVH; but is that just talking the book?
> 
> _(I generally watch the SP around this time, to see whether it's real or just the gullible piling in)_



Good point Donna. I do subscribe Eureka Report and have a great respect for Alan (also connected with my LinkedIn profile ). But you are right, no where Alan has said if or how much he was paid for the interview. PNV published the interview on aSX and rightly it catapulled the SP in a depressed market. I liked the product because first thought came to my mind if Fiona Wood (past Australian of the year and a great burn specialist from WA) used their products. The interview said yes. So I am interested to watch it more and know other view too. DNH


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## tinhat (5 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> there's a gushing interview with Alan Kohler that can be viewed on the PNV website, as well as Eureka and whatever other business promotional websites AK is involved with.
> 
> Paul Kennan, the CEO, talks the PNV book well. Kohler is well briefed, or at least fed the right questions that the interviewee can expand upon. I have some reservations about this form of promotional exercise (aka journalism) as the relationship isn't spelled out. I would only imagine it's not uncompensated. That said, as grist to the mill, it has some uses. There is some interesting stuff (for the lay person) that spells out how PNV is differentiated from, say, AVH; but is that just talking the book?
> 
> _(I generally watch the SP around this time, to see whether it's real or just the gullible piling in)_




Whatsmore, the company released the article to the market in an ASX announcement marked price sensitive!


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## Dona Ferentes (5 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> What's more, the company released the article to the market in an ASX announcement marked price sensitive!



true, there was some market sensitive info of a type, I guess. Best to be cautious.

Though the relationship wasn't too intimate, the intro actually reads: 







> PolyNovo CEO Paul Brennan was interviewed by Alan _*Kholer*_


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## tech/a (11 February 2020)

POP!!!


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## bigdog (26 February 2020)

PNV current share price down 21% lower to $2.38.

PNV reports a net loss for the half year of $2.42 million, a 26 per cent increase from last year.

PolyNovo has cautioned investors that it still expects its revenue to be lumpy, despite achieving a massive 80 per cent jump in revenue to $10.2 million and flagging accelerating sales.

However large increase in employee related expenses and corporate expenses saw the company's loss widen from last year.

ASX announcements today





Half Yearly Report and Accounts report uploaded below






637


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## Boggo (26 February 2020)

Follow on from here...
PNV - Polynovo Limited

Bailed out with a one cent per share + 2 x brokerage loss.


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## Ferret (26 February 2020)

I sold yesterday at 2.94 after it had retraced 10% from its recent high.  Very lucky with the timing.


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## mikejosef (30 March 2020)

PNV looking good to me, 
0 debt, lots of cash, big bounce today and lots of insider trading
Price at posting: $1.63


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## tinhat (9 April 2020)

Boggo said:


> Follow on from here...
> PNV - Polynovo Limited
> 
> Bailed out with a one cent per share + 2 x brokerage loss.
> ...




Nice timing there Bogo. I hope you've got back in since then. Not too late. I'm most bullish on PNV within my portfolio. Anything under $2 is a bargain in my back of envelope world of investing. They've got the surgical Blu Tack. Ain't it funky.


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## tinhat (22 April 2020)

It's getting funky now. Announcement out today. Look upon my Kingdom Ye mighty and despair.


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## Knobby22 (22 April 2020)

tinhat said:


> Look upon my Kingdom Ye mighty and despair.



....Nothing besides remains.


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## Boggo (7 May 2020)

tinhat said:


> Nice timing there Bogo. I hope you've got back in since then. Not too late. I'm most bullish on PNV within my portfolio. Anything under $2 is a bargain in my back of envelope world of investing. They've got the surgical Blu Tack. Ain't it funky.




Looking good now tinny, I'll be hitting you up for a cheap loan soon 
I waited a while but got back in yesterday when it looked like staying above $2.30.


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## tinhat (21 May 2020)

I've been taking profit.


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## tinhat (11 June 2020)

I like this as a long term growth stock. I'm still expecting a further pullback but quite frankly what does it matter other than I am a stingy guy and I'm doing OK with gold miners lately so I am happy to shuffle things around. This stock is going to make holders a lot of money in my humble opinion. I might put some of my cashed up profit back into this stock at some stage. Still holding a nice chunk in the SMSF.


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## tinhat (27 June 2020)

I've sold down more since my last post and I am not sure yet that it was the right thing to do. My target buy price for buying was the range of 2 to 2.20. I might need to start buying back at 2.40. If this stock starts marching up I will just buy.

I'm still rather long PNV. I I top up again it will be for a longer term.

If there is anyone reading these fora who are looking for a good long term prospect, please do some research into Polynovo.


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## Dona Ferentes (27 June 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> ....Nothing besides remains.



Ozymandias NL


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## Dona Ferentes (14 July 2020)

PolyNovo has received funding of $US15 million from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) to support the Pivotal trial program of NovoSorb BTM.

The trial will gather extensive data on the effectiveness of NovoSorb BTM in the treatment of full thickness burns and will allow PolyNovo to apply for premarket approval approval from the US Food and Drug Administration for this treatment indication. It is already approved for this treatment outside the US.


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## tinhat (19 July 2020)

Classic head and shoulders playing out on the weekly as I predicted back in May. Serious money to be made backing this stock over the long run IMHO. I'm in this for the long term but I'm rather chuffed at how well I have played the price action to accumulate over the last six months.

Other speckies in this space worth checking out are EMV and MEM. If you want to get really speckie look at ANP and KZA.


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## tinhat (16 August 2020)

I believe this will be a failed/false head and shoulders in that I don't anticipate the share price to drop below the right hand shoulder. I expect a reversal. Unless there is some very bad news in the yearly report or the shorters are able to exploit overall market weakness/pull-back to drive it down further.






Trading on the 17 July signaled to me that the shorting campaign to drive the price down was exhausting. buying kicked in to push the close price back up above the open.





The chart moved into accumulation with support around $2.20 and resistance around $2.30. Last week however, short interest went back up with another push to bring the price down. Note that head and shoulders neckline (yellow) appears to be maintaining support.










I am very long term bullish on PNV. I bought around the $2.20 to $2.25 mark recently and if it drops down below $2 I will buy again. It could get down to $1.80.

Polynovo is still an early stage, pre-profit, company. COVID-19 will have had an impact on what should be an exciting period of sales growth through adoption by surgeons. Its Novosorb Biodegradable Temporising Matrix, I believe, will be widely adopted as best practice for dermal reconstruction, such as under skin grafts, other reconstructive surgery such as Mastectomy. They are developing a product for hernia repair.

Being pre-profit and trading at an elevated PE, stocks like PNV tend to be the first to fall, fall harder but recover sooner during a market correction. That was the case during March.

Phil King of Regal Funds Management came out and said in the media some time ago now that they were shorting PNV. Well, Regal haven't done too well with their short strategy lately so I read. I'm certainly outperforming Regal's Long Short fund by a country mile.






But I guess that is the great thing about being a fund manager. You only have to find enough people more stupid than you to part with their money to generate an income stream through management fees.

Phil King you're a ding dong. Here's some advice. Stick to the basics. Is the product a winner (does it meet a need)? (hint: it's the best and likely to be globally adopted clinically, perhaps to become clinical best practice). Are the management on their game? (hint: yes). Is the strategy right (hint: yes, but COVID-19 presents headwinds).

But then again, I should be thanking you Phil and your hapless investors who are getting what I consider to be a poor return in your long short fund. You see, I get to profit from your short campaign, which you so kindly announced to the media ("'Bubble' in biotech stocks troubles investors", AFR 25 Nov 2019) along with your reported proclamation that the biotech sector is "the biggest bubble in the Australian stock market" back in November 2019, not long after you were inducted into the "Funds Management Hall of Fame" (I know what you're thinking, does the managed funds industry really have a hall of fame? Well ask yourself, does the circus have clowns?) around about the time the AFP raided Regal's offices and ASIC announced an investigation into Regal ("ASIC investigates prominent investor Regal Funds Management", SMH, 26 November 2019).

Little retail investors like myself can sit back and watch the chart and the shorting and nimbly trade and take advantage of the long and short campaigns of fund managers like you without the inconvenience of AFP raids and ASIC investigations.

Anyway... PNV, I'm long, recently topped up but the share price could be driven lower in the short term by the accumulators before a turnaround and it head back up. Great company, good management, great product and good strategy and implementation so far. The yearly report will give an updated picture of how things are going, especially given COVID-19 headwinds.

[edited: typo "AFP" not "AFR"]


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## tinhat (16 August 2020)

Some of those charts got jumbled. This is the trading on the 17th July that I thought indicated exhaustion of the downtrend and the start of accumulation.






And a chart designed to stroke my optimism but also shows where the lower support channel might kick in (green)


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## tinhat (16 August 2020)

I mentioned Phil King's comment of late November 2019 that the biotech sector is the biggest bubble in the Australian stock market. What a drongo.


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## Dona Ferentes (26 August 2020)

PolyNovo revealed its financial year net loss widened to $4.35 million, from $3.41 million. Revenue jumped to $22.16 million, from $13.49 million.

Excluding share-based payments, the company's net loss of $2.132 million for financial year 2020 os 31.1 per cent higher than a year ago.

In financial year 2020, NovoSorb BTM sales more than doubled. Strong sales performances were recorded in the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Germany, Austria and Switzerland.


> "The impact of COVID-19 has had little short-term impact on PolyNovo and we continue to plan for significant revenue and account growth. The year ahead is still uncertain. "For financial year 2021 we anticipated doubling our sales revenues. NovoSorb BTM European markets will expand further in financial year 2021 through a mix of distributor appointments and direct market entries."Asian markets are also anticipated to grow with new regulatory approvals forecast in the second quarter and third quarter."



down 10%


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## Knobby22 (26 August 2020)

I am a bit disappointed costs have increased greatly and some of it isn't explained fully however they are expanding and hiring quickly so you do expect costs to generally rise.

Are they get new offices as well as building new plant? Building valued at 8.8mil for construction in progress and property, plant and equipment rising from 6mil to 18 mil. They do say the factory is now complete.

Borrowings have increased from $2mil to $9.4mil.
Cash in bank 11 mil.
Revenue increased to 22 mil from 13 mil.

Lots of new products to come out and I am sure the present product sales will keep increasing so hopefully spinning of cash this time next year.


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## galumay (26 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> I suggest you come back in two years time and relook at it then.






galumay said:


> If they could grow earnings in 2 years, with no increase in share price, to the tens of millions of $'s required to provide a sensible return on capital, I will be suitably impressed!






tinhat said:


> Let's agree to meet here again in January 2022 to see where PNV is at in terms of earnings, return on equity and share price then. I hold.




So 6 months into our 2 year target and its gone backwards, bigger losses, more debt. The task ahead in the next 18 months has got harder and more unlikely IMO. (Posting this more as a reminder for myself than anything else.)


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## Knobby22 (28 August 2020)

Bought some more today at $2.15 and back to my original holding before I sold during the initial Covid fall.
I consider this a very safe hold in the vein of CSL.


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## Dona Ferentes (28 October 2020)

up 8% today
_PolyNovo is excited to announce the approval of NovoSorb BTM by the Taiwan FDA for sale in Taiwan. PolyNovo said it has also contracted with Evermed, a Taiwan based distributor to sell BTM. _


> Managing Director, Paul Brennan said, “This is an exciting development for PolyNovo. Taiwan has an advanced health system and has a population of circa 23 million concentrated in three regions. The dermal matrix market in Taiwan has good potential for us in reconstructive surgery, trauma and burns.”


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## Knobby22 (9 November 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> up 8% today
> _PolyNovo is excited to announce the approval of NovoSorb BTM by the Taiwan FDA for sale in Taiwan. PolyNovo said it has also contracted with Evermed, a Taiwan based distributor to sell BTM. _
> 
> 
> View attachment 113865




Don't want to curse it but Polynovo really seems to have hit a new stable level. Probably struggle to break $3 though in the near term.


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## Dona Ferentes (12 January 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> Don't want to curse it but Polynovo really seems to have hit a new stable level. Probably struggle to break $3 though in the near term.



made it to $4 , but then retreated. Today's update more +ve than -ve

*Interim Trading Update  *
_• H1 FY21 up 31% on H1 FY20  _
_• Strong sales Q1 FY21 up 75% on Q1 FY20 
• Slower than expected sales in October and November  _
_• Strong December sales exceeded budget in US, NZ, and Taiwan  _


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## Dona Ferentes (12 January 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> Probably *struggle to break $3 *though in the near term.



Naw, punched through  !!






Oops; wrong direction


(DNH)


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## sptrawler (12 January 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Naw, punched through  !!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



What caused that Donna? Tinhat is very upbeat PNV, it may be a buying opportunity is presenting.


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## finicky (12 January 2021)

Still a $2.95 share price on 3 cents per share sales in fy20, what can go wrong? Get in while you've got the chance.
Imagine what the P/E will look like after first year that PNV makes a profit.
4c book value, so that's approx price to book = 74. How's that going to fare in a crash?


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## Dona Ferentes (12 January 2021)

tantalising. Impatience => sell down ??!

Managing Director, Paul Brennan said, 







> "In the short-term forecasting sales will be challenging particularly in the US, however the medium-term outlook is strong, and we continue to see surgeons using and referring NovoSorb BTM to their peers. Once hospitals have more capacity, we will see US and UK sales accelerate just as we have seen in New Zealand and Australia. New geographies offer good opportunities for NovoSorb BTM.”


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## Knobby22 (12 January 2021)

Could  get to $2.50 gain. Can't see it going lower than $2.30.


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## galumay (12 January 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> I can promise truly massive earnings growth, but you know the share market.





tinhat said:


> Let's agree to meet here again in January 2022 to see where PNV is at in terms of earnings, return on equity and share price then. I hold.





galumay said:


> sounds like a plan, I will set a reminder and check back in.




1 year down in the 2 year challenge, still making a loss, the next 12 months will need to be amazing for this business to finally justify its share price!


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## Trav. (14 January 2021)

sptrawler said:


> may be a buying opportunity is presenting.



I thought the same today and entered. It might be a risky trade but thought that I would have a go as it looked oversold on the chart. We will have to wait and see 

Holding @ 2.80 with some momentum kicking back up......


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## sptrawler (14 January 2021)

Trav. said:


> I thought the same today and entered. It might be a risky trade but thought that I would have a go as it looked oversold on the chart. We will have to wait and see
> 
> Holding @ 2.80 with some momentum kicking back up......



Reading on their product it is interesting, I personally dont hold, but have long term horizons so it doesnt fit my portfolio.


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## Knobby22 (15 January 2021)

Trav. said:


> I thought the same today and entered. It might be a risky trade but thought that I would have a go as it looked oversold on the chart. We will have to wait and see
> 
> Holding @ 2.80 with some momentum kicking back up......
> 
> View attachment 118441




I am getting interested after today. These sort of companies often overshoot.


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## Trav. (15 January 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> I am getting interested after today. These sort of companies often overshoot.



Yeah I got it wrong today but still in and will wait and see. 

Same thought process with the oversold, but being a Friday didn't help


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## Mickymouse (15 January 2021)

I been buying and selling this company over a year can't believe it dropped to 2.52 today. The news a few days ago wasn't even that bad....


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## Knobby22 (15 January 2021)

Mickymouse said:


> I been buying and selling this company over a year can't believe it dropped to 2.52 today. The news a few days ago wasn't even that bad....




I sold a few near the recent high but kept most of them. In hindsight I should of have sold more. I knew it had risen too fast a bit beyond fundzmentals but was too gutless to sell more.

Share prices have momentum, once they start moving in a direction, they tend to have trouble stopping.

 Will be buying back what I sold.


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## Trav. (20 January 2021)

and Trav breathes a sigh of relief


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## barney (20 January 2021)

Trav. said:


> and Trav breathes a sigh of relief




Hopefully on the way back   

Positive news.

Poland Distributor
Turkey Distributor


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## UMike (5 February 2021)

Did you end up buying some @tinhat ?

I am seriously looking at this more for a buy and hold than spec trade.


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## peter2 (5 February 2021)

I agree, PNV is an interesting reversal opportunity. It's hard to overlook the impulsive selloff. The top half of the selloff could have been profit taking but then after their latest H1 FY21 update the selloff quickened with huge volume. There's no clear selling climax but price has certainly settled in this tight range. The market may need more time. 

I'd be waiting for some indication that demand is rising like a close above 2.75 with above average volume. If price falls below 2.40 then I'd discard the chart until it appeared in a daily/weekly bullish bar scan.


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## UMike (29 March 2021)

Tipped this in the Monthly.
With the new product on the way and directors buying there may be a positive announcement coming soon.


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## peter2 (31 May 2021)

Since my last chart post, price went down slightly more than I'd like, then rallied above 2.75 but struggled to hold the 3.00 level. 

Price has formed another ledge on the daily chart, with a HL. I've started a trade with a tight iSL anticipating that price will get back above 3.00 soon.


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## rnr (31 May 2021)

peter2 said:


> Since my last chart post, price went down slightly more than I'd like, then rallied above 2.75 but struggled to hold the 3.00 level.
> 
> Price has formed another ledge on the daily chart, with a HL. I've started a trade with a tight iSL anticipating that price will get back above 3.00 soon.
> 
> View attachment 125297










and if the higher low, as referred to by *@peter2,* doesn't hold then the above chart provides an alternate view.

Cheers,
Rob


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## peter2 (1 June 2021)

@rnr  I think your scenario is a higher probability than mine.  The wave C completion will put the oscillator in the oversold zone. A good place for the 123 Low reversal is at the completion of wave C.

Price can go a little higher but shouldn't close above your #1.  I'll have to use a tight TS on this one in either direction unless the move up looks impulsive.  Good pick-up.


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## UMike (1 June 2021)

I view things a little differently. As a Bottom picker I have had a buy order and still maintain that order in both Super and Personal at under $2.5.
I will lower my sell target at around $3 regardless if I pick some up soon or not.






Expecting $2.4 to be its low.


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## UMike (2 July 2021)

Picked PNV For July Tipping Comp.

I got alerted to this stock through Clients of my restaurant. There seems to be a sense of excitement about what they are doing.

In the Over 1.5b market cap, in the health care sector, Massive effort to go global, Some major announcement coming soon,  and as a skeptic of the general market value and low interest rates well worth taking an interest in atm.


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## basiac (6 July 2021)

peter2 said:


> @rnr  I think your scenario is a higher probability than mine.  The wave C completion will put the oscillator in the oversold zone. A good place for the 123 Low reversal is at the completion of wave C.
> 
> Price can go a little higher but shouldn't close above your #1.  I'll have to use a tight TS on this one in either direction unless the move up looks impulsive.  Good pick-up.
> 
> View attachment 125308



Hi Peter,where is the 1-5 wave?    Trying to work out the bottom of wave C.....


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## galumay (6 July 2021)

galumay said:


> 1 year down in the 2 year challenge, still making a loss, the next 12 months will need to be amazing for this business to finally justify its share price!




18 months into the 2 year challenge. Miracle status if they can turn this business around in 6 months. I will refrain from further commentary until Jan 2022.


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## Beaches (6 July 2021)

galumay said:


> 18 months into the 2 year challenge. Miracle status if they can turn this business around in 6 months. I will refrain from further commentary until Jan 2022.




No comment on the price or profitability, but I will say the volatility of this over the last 18 months has been very good for trading in and out. Suspect there will be further trading opportunities in this before the music stops.
.


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## peter2 (9 July 2021)

I don't think the music will ever stop for *PNV* as they have a valuable product. No doubt the Covid pandemic has interfered with their plans and I'd estimate that they're now two years behind schedule. 

I have no idea if the current management have the ability to get this business moving in the right direction. If they don't then I can see a large multinational pharmaceutical company buying the IP. 

International vultures are starting to pick over the pandemic carcasses (eg Offer for SYD) and they don't have to be dead to be considered. 

Note to @rnr . Your interpretation of the *PNV* chart was spot on. Well done. I sold perhaps one day too late but I did sell knowing that price could move quickly lower (wave C is always impulsive) once it started down. 

Are we at point C (today's doji)?  Maybe, but I'll wait for my reversal setup to form.


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## Knobby22 (13 July 2021)

Latest announcement - looking forward to the actual results.

They are concentrating on using their capital to get market share at the moment, rather than profit which is growth 101 tactics. Using cash for hiring of new sales staff, assisting surgeons with their first operation, marketing etc.

So they need to build up sales staff overseas. Covid has slowed them down (can't visit hospitals, lockdowns worldwide, less operations)

but 49% growth (USA) in the last financial year is excellent. 25% increase in Australia. 53% in Germany, Switzerland Austria region.
Once they are fully established, the marketing/sales costs can be reduced and the profits can flow in. First sales in other markets, Italy, Taiwan, Finland.
 It is a superior product and cheaper to make than their competitors.
Awaiting release of the other ranges, hernia / breast reconstruction etc.

*Record US Turnover in June’21 and 4Q21, 
US Sales Team Increased to 36*

_Notwithstanding limited access to US hospitals and surgeons due to Covid, PolyNovo is experiencing increasing revenue momentum in the US and all other major markets. PolyNovo US reports more than 50 per cent of hospitals are now re-engaging for business. At the same time, the US sales team has been expanded to 36 with 6 new staff trained in the last month. This will expand our geographic footprint and our ability to service recently signed Group Purchasing Organisations. While FY21 BTM revenue growth of circa 34% is a good indicator of FY21 BTM financial performance, recent business fundamentals have significantly improved as follows: • US BTM revenue in $US has grown 49% in FY21 over FY20. • US 4Q21 BTM revenue is a record $US 4.9M compared with 4Q20 of $US 3.3M • Record monthly BTM revenue of $A 3.3M in June ’21 • FY21 Distributor revenue growth was 53% with strong increases in the DACH region (Germany, Switzerland, and Austria), further sales in South Africa and India, good first sales in Finland, Italy, and Taiwan. • FY21 Australia BTM revenue has grown 25 per cent despite challenging Covid lockdowns_


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## galumay (13 July 2021)

I said I wasn't going to post until after Jan 22, but just humour me @Knobby22 and tell me how you reverse engineer a market cap of ~ $1600m and revenue of $22m to give any sort of ROI for an investor? Even if that revenue was FCF the yield for an investor would be under 1.5%. The maths just doesnt work.


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## Knobby22 (13 July 2021)

galumay said:


> I said I wasn't going to post until after Jan 22, but just humour me @Knobby22 and tell me how you reverse engineer a market cap of ~ $1600m and revenue of $22m to give any sort of ROI for an investor? Even if that revenue was FCF the yield for an investor would be under 1.5%. The maths just doesnt work.



You do it by having 30-40% growth rates for a number of years, like CSL, Apple, Amazon.
And don't forget this result was during a Covid year where hospitals were not operating properly and secondly where people were locked down less likely to have trauma injuries.

You  can look at another company MPV who make the green whistle and they said in their most recent announcement that trauma injuries were well down this last financial year world wide. (don't own).


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## galumay (14 July 2021)

Just saying massive, endless growth is how you do it, is not really an answer. 30%-40% is not enough, like I said the maths doesnt work. Regardless, how many Australian businesses have grown their revenue at more than 40% for a decade or more? 

Any modelling I have done just doesnt lead to a return for investors unless I assume the best growth we have ever seen from an Australian company, and very improbable net margins, combined with a payoff term that is longer than most of us have left for this world!

I suspect the price is a reflection of narrative speculation, "its a great product so it must be a good business", combined with the greater fool theory. If someone can show me their maths that shows how it is an investible business, then I may be persuaded otherwise!


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## Knobby22 (14 July 2021)

Hi Galamy

I know you are not comfortable with high growth companies, this is company is just leaving start up territory on the graph I gave so there is a lot of growth to go, not only from the present product but from the other associated products being developed. 

 can point to other Aussie company examples, Resmed and Cochlear. All the examples I provided are now getting to the mature stage of the business.

I have respect for your method of investing in businesses such as NRW , Southern Cross Engineering which are contractors and basically low growth but can be excellent value if timed right.  I find them difficult to invest in as fortune varies with each contract win and would rather invest in something with larger potential gains (and higher risk).

And we probably both like high yield businesses with less growth such as CCP and BFG.


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## galumay (14 July 2021)

This is no CSL, Resmed or Cochlear though, its in uncharted territory with regard to its financials. Have a look at something like CSL, maybe the best business ever in Australia, 2001-2011 (some of its best years) it grew revenue at about 20% CAGR, no where near what PNV needs to grow it at to be investible. 2011-2021 CSL grew revenue at not much over 10%. 

I have no problem with high growth businesses, if the growth proposed is realistic and it has a mathematical path to a return for investors. I won a number of high growth businesses, but the maths makes sense, I can see how I will get a return as an investor if things play out well. 

My point is that history tells us that PNV would have to be probably the best business ever in Australia to grow into its current price, you would need about 10 years of 50% growth in Revenue with very good margins to get any sort of decent IRR on your investment. 

Anyway, I should just let it go! It makes no difference to me as an investor, I just get so frustrated when I see people beguiled by the narrative speculation and I have been round long enough to know what happens eventually. All I end up doing is pissing off the speculators and that doesnt really add any value to the discussion!


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## Knobby22 (14 July 2021)

Viva la difference.


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## peter2 (14 July 2021)

Seeing investors analyze a company with a completely different set of tools than what I use is always educational. It definitely adds value. Most speculators have short term trade horizons. How can they be upset by a long term investor's analysis. 

Beguiled by the narrative. That would include every IPO ever. They all have great stories and unlimited prospects when they list. *CSL, COH, RMD* would be in the 1% that made it and have kept it. If a company doesn't have a great story it would never list. Macquarie generated a great narrative for *NXL*. Insto's lapped it up and many are paying for it now. 

I've hated the BNPL companies from the start. IMO they're predatory, targeting the most vulnerable in society. I think they should be regulated up the kazoo. I consider them uninvestable but certainly tradable because of the price movement generated by the public interest which is created by the narrative. 

@galumay  Who doesn't like a good story?  It's very difficult to discredit a story as they're all, part imagination. However the numbers as you see them, tell their own story. I hope you'll continue to post your opinions on all the stonks out there.


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## peter2 (15 July 2021)

*PNV* is not looking too good at the moment. Sellers all over it trying to get out. The only interest now is whether 2.00 or 1.50 will provide any support. *PNV* has seen a quick change in investor sentiment. May be a few instos have seen @galumay's calculations. Of course they would be scanning ASF regularly. 

My exit was a day late perhaps but I'm pleased it wasn't any later. 





	

		
			
		

		
	
 Capitulation volume! Much too early for a reversal opportunity.


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## galumay (16 July 2021)

LOL! Sorry, I will be more careful what I post!


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## Knobby22 (23 August 2021)

Hernia product made up of NovaSorb film and foam ultrasonically welded together to be filed March 2023 with expected approval by August 2023. 
This will be an important addition to the range opening up a complete new medical field of operation. Manufactured in Australia.


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## Greynomad99 (24 August 2021)

I’ve been watching PNV recently because it has fallen to a point that could be a turning point. For those not into charting don’t bother reading on as it is largely musing about what various theories suggest for PNV’s short term outlook.

Is it a buy for me? Not yet as it has been in a technical weekly downtrend since the start of this year and while downtrends don’t last forever, they suggest further falls are more likely than the alternative. Price needs to break above the downtrend line on the chart to change this outlook.

There is a strong level of resistance at $2.04 that price recently bounced off. If price moves back down to break this level, further falls could be expected. The next stop down (and one that has some analysis that suggests it is the bottom) is $1.75. This level is a 161.8% Fibonacci retracement of what I see as possibly Wave B (Elliott Wave Theory).

One worrying aspect of the chart (were I a holder) would be that price has made a lower weekly peak followed by a lower trough this week. These are only small moves but a sign of weakness nevertheless.

There are suggestions that the $2.04 low will hold in that the blue dashed line is a line of support that has held under price for 3 years. The probability that this support will be broken isn’t good (except for those who bought on the bounce). Interestingly, if price did fall through $2.04 with any volume then that would give a target of $1.76 for a short term fall.

The red dashed horizontal lines are calculated levels of natural support and resistance.

Summary: PNV’s current fall may have ended but support for that view is not as strong as a further fall to $1.75

And remember, the above is just theory, not a prediction of an outcome – just an educated guess based on chart patterns.


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## Greynomad99 (24 August 2021)

Continuing on from my comments above I also commented on PNV's outlook 6 months ago. I keep these posts so as to see how my analyis pans out in reality. These historical posts for all stocks commented on over the past 3 months appear in alpha order but can be resorted in date order (to find my latest musings) by clicking at the top of the date column.  PNV's thread is here: https://sharecharting.com.au/stock-commentary-blog/263-pnv-29-january-2021
As for my January analysis it was non-commital but suggested price could fall and a buy would have been high risk. Price fell back a little and then rose. As the preceding fall fell short of ocnfirming a technical downtrend, by definition, price remained in a technical uptrend, and once it made a higher high it would have been a buy signal. A buy then however would have been just as price reached the downtrend line on today's chart (which wasn't yet showing in the price action) and fell strongly. That fall broke a support level and made a lower target of $1.78 - which is the same as the targets in my post above, making said target more likely (but never guaranteed). You may not some slight differences in the two charts as the price channel lower boundary and the blue dashed support line have both be redrawn based on the intervening 6 months data.
The mid-April false buy signal reminds me to never accept an optomistic outlook as gospel and always have your stop loss in place.
Would I have bought on that April move up? Probably not because my Elliott Wave analysis (the 1 to 5 red numbers on the recent chart) would have meant price was falling out of Wave 5 at that time - which isn't a place to buy. Elliott Wave might suggest that price could rise from a point between current price and my lower target of around $1.70. If so it could be expected (according to theory) to rise back up to about $3.50 before collapsing significantly. That said, the Elliott Wave structure is not compelling with PNV as the wave counts are unclear.


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## Knobby22 (26 August 2021)

* Breakeven (excluding non cash expenses)-  Worth reading whole report. *

New factory commissioned. 
Warehouses located around the world to service promptly medical needs. located in US, New Zealand, Australia Singapore Belgium England.
Hernia product now in preclinical trials. New products to be released (for small wounds). 
Flinders University Leg Ulcer trial recruitment continuing. 

From report:

The company is pleased to report we have reached breakeven/profit, excluding non-cash expenses. 
This significant milestone has been achieved with strong sales growth and significant investment in sales personnel.
Audited results were a net loss after income tax of $4.61m (2020 $4.19m) but this includes $2.63m in share-based payments expense ($2.63m), unrealised foreign exchange losses ($1.12m), and depreciation & amortisation ($1.12m).
Total revenue of $29.34m includes: • NovoSorb BTM of $25.51m up 33.8% on the prior year
• Revenue from the BARDA clinical trial program of $3.65m up 18.1% on the prior year
• As at 30 June 2021, the Company held $7.69m in cash and short-term investments. COVID had a significant impact on hospital trauma, burn and elective surgery activity. Notwithstanding limited hospital access, lockdowns, and travel restrictions, we adapted our business and had continued material sales growth globally and notably in the US with BTM sales up by 49% in $US and distributor sales up by 53.1%.


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## galumay (26 August 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> The company is pleased to report we have reached breakeven/profit, excluding non-cash expenses.




Here we go again, so the actual loss is up slightly from last FY, but by some bull**** accounting they are claiming to be profitable in their presentation?  

As you note, Loss was actually $4.6m up from a loss of $4.2m last FY.

Its poor corporate behaviour, especially with a large graphic in the presso promoting the "Profit*". 

Its why I always open the Financial Report first, skip the commentary and go straight to the Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow Statement, then back to the commentary and finally to the Presentation. (if I am still interested!)


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## Knobby22 (26 August 2021)

I did make it clear.
I am expectimg the growth will increase as covid restrictions worldwide ease and more elective surgery can take place.

Now the factory is commissioned  and warehousing complete thete should be no other constraints.


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## galumay (26 August 2021)

I wasn't having a go at you Knobby22, just quoting the point from the presso. I realise you made it clearer than the company did!


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## Knobby22 (30 September 2021)

My pick for the month.
Overshot.
Agm at the end of October will rekindle enthusiasm.


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## qldfrog (30 September 2021)

good bones !
popping up frequently in my systems..I let them decide but sounds a fair go


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## UMike (6 October 2021)

Greynomad99 said:


> I’ve been watching PNV recently because it has fallen to a point that could be a turning point. ........
> There is a strong level of resistance at $2.04 that price recently bounced off. If price moves back down to break this level, further falls could be expected. The next stop down (and one that has some analysis that suggests it is the bottom) is $1.75. This level is a 161.8% Fibonacci retracement of what I see as possibly Wave B (Elliott Wave Theory).
> ......
> There are suggestions that the $2.04 low will hold in that the blue dashed line is a line of support that has held under price for 3 years. The probability that this support will be broken isn’t good (except for those who bought on the bounce). Interestingly, if price did fall through $2.04 with any volume then that would give a target of $1.76 for a short term fall.



Steadily moving down and now through the $1.7 mark. with a 1-3 buy sell ratio.

Got the Falling Knife look about it.


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## Miner (9 November 2021)

Is this just a begining of a great fall ?




5th Nov - MD resigned (or sacked) -  Read this line - excellent opportunity (Ha Ha) or face-saving 







			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02448246-3A580388?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		

29 Sept gave a rosy picture on trading update - Envious (I tried to smell fish but all *appeared to be cleaned*) 



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02444440-3A579765?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		


5 Sept - was the beginning of stress -  the Ace of the pack of cards the COO, left the company in doldrum 



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02419952-3A575539?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		

I will be eyeing on the conference paper to be officially released tomorrow 9th Nov - who wrote that originally however and who amended 



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02447987-3A580347?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


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## UMike (1 December 2021)

Hope fully nearing the end of a down trend.
Would like to think $1.4 is support.
But is a long term turnaround story.


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## Knobby22 (31 December 2021)

UMike said:


> Hope fully nearing the end of a down trend.
> Would like to think $1.4 is support.
> But is a long term turnaround story.



My pick this year as Covid will be over, heaps of operations required, people back in hospital, new CEO, expect 100% growth or I will be very disappointed. Out of favour. In favour last year (+ issues with the new hernia treatment sticking) which is why I didn't pick it.
Waiting to lose my bet with Gulamay though.


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## UMike (2 January 2022)

Yea....Will need to go up 100% to make up for my 40% first lot deficit.
Hoping health stocks do get a lift this year.


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## Knobby22 (11 January 2022)

That's better. Nice 25% rise today at this time.

Record US Sales December and Q2 PNV today announced selected unaudited trading results for the half year ended 31 December 2021.
US Market US sales for December (ex Barda) were a record A$3.40m / US$2.43m up 76% on Same Time Last Year of A$1.93m 
US$1.45m. Monthly US sales for December significantly exceeded US$2m for first time. With the excellent US sales results for October and November the US Q2 results were a record A$8.06m / US$ 5.86m up 105% on STLY of A$3.92m 
US$2.89m. Quarterly US sales for Q2 significantly exceeded US$5m for the first time. YTD sales in the US are AU$14.20m 
US$10.38m up 58% STLY. There is some strong quarter on quarter momentum with Q2 US sales A$8.06m / US$5.86m up 31% on Q1 A$6.14m / US$4.52m. 

There were 16 new accounts added in Q1 and a further 19 added in Q2 bringing total US accounts to 154. There is an intention to increase the size of the US sales team, and a further 10 reps are being recruited to expand coverage across key cities and regions


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## finicky (11 January 2022)

Don't follow it but will go back over the thread.
Early to be sure, but at least on the Daily chart PNV has broken above its downtrend resistance on strong  volume. We can also see the two momentum indicators have been signalling with positive divergence of their lows to the decine in price.

2 Year Daily


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## Dona Ferentes (11 January 2022)

The Chairman of PolyNovo, David Williams said:


> "_While US sales are very encouraging, there is more to achieve as we still have new sales staff being onboarded and more staff to be employed. In addition, we are retraining existing staff to follow surgeon leads using the product in new indications. While the US is the engine room of our growth in the immediate future, there are many opportunities in the rest of the world where we are just starting out._"




It sounds very old-school, Dependent on calibre of the sales staff to get out there and pitch/ sell. And to get the attention of end-users.


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## UMike (6 April 2022)

Record sales.
Lets hope this is the turn around story of this falling knife.



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02507444-2926SA22JBPMGPQBJDN2CU644T/pdf?access_token=0007IaNeGCcxkbHN0r76OWkM09Lg


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## debtfree (23 July 2022)

Going by the weekly chart PNV is certainly heading in the right direction at the moment. 
Downtrend broken, MAs have crossed over, Volatility to the upside is happening, stronger than the XAO for the last 2 months. Will it continue ... only time will tell.


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## Dona Ferentes (31 July 2022)

PNV has announced the appointment of Johnson & Johnson senior leader Swami Raote as its next CEO. This follows the resignation of former managing director Paul Brennan from the top job in November last year.



> _"I am very excited about the potential of PolyNovo’s technology and its ability to impact patient outcomes across world. In my 30-plus years in healthcare, I have never seen such an impressive technology combined with very attractive financial metrics,_” he said in a statement to the ASX.





> “_PolyNovo has all the elements needed to build a truly global and very large Australian life sciences multinational along the lines of a number of other Australian success stories. It was this potential that brought me out of retirement.”_




Mr Raote, who is 58, had spent 30-years working across the Johnson & Johnson business, and most recently was worldwide president for its Vision Care business, which employs 5600 people in 120 countries.

PNV has been a target of short sellers, with shorts making up more than 11 per cent of the float in May and June, but this has dropped back to around 8 per cent recently.






The company has a $1 billion market capitalisation


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## bk1 (31 July 2022)

Can it keep above $1.60 this time?


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## qldfrog (26 August 2022)

Well i got 2 packets of pnv via the systems, the first one made a decent profit and was sold on Monday, the second one lost 18% nearly $1k  today wiping all gains and bring  losses to the system.. dammed


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## UMike (31 August 2022)

Not quiet brave enough to buy more of these but picked it in the Monthly comp.
Results are out and sales are up and they nearly made a profit.

Lets see.


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## frugal.rock (19 September 2022)

A little interesting again.


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## qldfrog (20 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> A little interesting again.
> 
> View attachment 147010



Képs popping in and out of my systems.a good trading opportunity,but not sure as investor


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## UMike (1 October 2022)

Held up really well last month considering the Dow had it's worst month since 2002.
Not looking to get any more but hoping it will consolidate with the rest of the market.


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## Dona Ferentes (6 October 2022)

Market liked the news:  PNV booked a record $5.4 million in sales in September to take September quarter sales to $12.5 million.


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## galumay (6 October 2022)

The question remains, can they make any profit?


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## Dona Ferentes (22 November 2022)

In trading halt:

Polynovo is looking to raise $30 million via a placement of new shares, another $3 million in shares sold to directors and a share purchase plan to take it to $47 million.

Brokers Bell Potter and Macquarie are on the deal, which is expected to price at $1.90 a share.


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## UMike (16 December 2022)

PolyNovo successfully completes Share Purchase Plan PolyNovo Limited (ASX: PNV) (PolyNovo) is pleased to announce the successful completion of its Share Purchase Plan (SPP). 
In accordance with the SPP terms, the issue price of new fully paid ordinary shares (New Shares) under the SPP is $1.90 per New Share, being the issue price paid by investors under the recently completed institutional placement. 
Strong support was received from 2,725 Eligible Shareholders (beneficial holders) with applications totalling A$35.27m with an average application amount of approximately A$12,941. *The Board has decided to accept oversubscriptions under the Plan totalling $A3 million* to ensure all Eligible Shareholders are given a reasonable opportunity to participate. This increases the maximum total amount to be raised under the SPP to $A20 million. 
.....
The total funds raised comprising of the Institutional Placement (A$30m), Director Placement (A$3m) (subject to shareholder approval) and SPP (A$20m) amounts to $A53m


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## galumay (17 December 2022)

galumay said:


> The question remains, can they make any profit?




Seemingly not, another CR. A pile of SH's cash been set on fire by this one. I should really collect on my bet on this one, even allowing for the excuses of Covid etc this has proven not to be an investible business as predicted.


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## UMike (23 December 2022)

Actually got scaled back in a weird arse way. Probably based on the amount of the existing holding amount.

Just over a third.


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## systematic (3 January 2023)

Have picked for the 2023 yearly comp. Consensus is a Buy. It's in a field that can see big moves either way, and the stock price is volatile enough. Seems to be consolidating recently, so I'm just hoping the break is to the upside.


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## UMike (Tuesday at 12:31 PM)

galumay said:


> Seemingly not, another CR. A pile of SH's cash been set on fire by this one. I should really collect on my bet on this one, even allowing for the excuses of Covid etc this has proven not to be an investible business as predicted.



Hope you were allowed to cash out on it as ultimately the bets seems a losing one.
As an investible business it has been a bonza for me. Just sold the initial 1/5 @ $2.48 with a small gain leaving the top-ups remaining at little over $1 and the SPP @ $1.9. Dunno when I'll offload the tops-ups as it'll probably go in stages.
I agree it is not a buy and hold forever stock. Now I just need CSL to stop killing me.

@systematic Good pick. Was close to picking it as well.


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## galumay (Tuesday at 4:59 PM)

UMike said:


> Hope you were allowed to cash out on it as ultimately the bets seems a losing one.



I haven't collected the bet, I was right then and I see no signs of being wrong about this business anytime soon. Its not investible by my definition and there is no sign of profitability or the extraordinary growth required to justify the price. 
May well be a good trade for speculators, and good luck to the gamblers who play that game.


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## Knobby22 (Tuesday at 6:08 PM)

UMike said:


> Hope you were allowed to cash out on it as ultimately the bets seems a losing one.
> As an investible business it has been a bonza for me. Just sold the initial 1/5 @ $2.48 with a small gain leaving the top-ups remaining at little over $1 and the SPP @ $1.9. Dunno when I'll offload the tops-ups as it'll probably go in stages.
> I agree it is not a buy and hold forever stock. Now I just need CSL to stop killing me.
> 
> @systematic Good pick. Was close to picking it as well.



If projections are correct should be highly profitable in 2025 fy. About 24c  per share.


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