# AXO - Aurox Resources



## havingfun (29 August 2006)

Noticed on another forum,rise last 2 days mim vol. Something about a Vanadium mineral deposit released 10/5 , but nothing since.Anyone know anything about them or the resourse???


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## doctorj (29 August 2006)

I can't say I'm very up to date on the company, but I did hear a story recently that they were allegedly nearing completion of their feasability study and it looked pretty good.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (29 August 2006)

Claims to have Australia's largest JORC Vanadium deposit,


For value comparison see PMA,

Very High risk given commodity and funding/Cap Ex requirements


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## edogg75 (5 September 2006)

A lot of the risk disappeared with today's ann YT. Today's ann of a  chinese farm-in involved the payment of $53.6m to AXO for 30% of the Balla Balla project and 60m AXO shares. 

Thats approx 115% of AXO's current market cap ($47m)

AXO has the largest vanadium mine in Australia (by a margin) with a BFS due this month. Furthermore, vanadium prices are at all time highs. 

PMA - market cap $127m (at $1.15per share)
AXO - market cap $47m (at $1.05per share)

PMA's windimurra resource = 56.1mt at 0.46% v2o5
AXO's Balla balla resource = 306mt at 0.65% v2o5

Balla Balla is also close to infrastructure and should be relatively cheap to mine. DYOR, but I think the SP still has a fair way to go in the next month.

I hold axo and AXOO (ex price 20c).


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## hypnotic (7 January 2007)

Hi everyone,

Just had a read at JAN 2007 smart investors on AXO, 

A quick summary of it:

-Operates in WA in the Pilbra reigion Balla Balla resource
-Confirmed JORC compliant resource of 303mt grading 0.65% vanadium pentoxide
-Possibly the largest and and highest grade vanadium resource in Aust.
-Compare this to PMA, twice the size of Windimurra and grades are nearly 50% higher
-Expect to start producing in 2008
-PMA to start at March 2008 too
-Patersons Securities' valuation of PMA is 3.67 per share about $1 premium PMA's recent share price. In light of PMA's earnings estimates Paterson's valuation looks credible, given it would represent a conservative PE multiple of about 8 times the company's 2008-09 earnings. If the multiple is used to value PMA is applied to RM research's cash-flow model for AXO, it implies that the company's share price should be about $4.80. (currently trading at 92 cents)
-Although the figures looks great, there may be challenges to overcome production issues, fluctuation in price of vanadium. Very speculative stock.

Recent Drilling annoucement for AXO 5/1/07

The directors are pleased to announce the completion of the Company’s first drilling programme designed to better delineate the Balla Balla titanomagnetite mineralisation extending 11 kilometres beyond the project’s current 5 kilometre Bankable Feasibility Study (“BFS”) area. (See orange areas in attached map.) The 42 reverse-circulation drill holes (3,800 metres) were targeted to supplement the 92 holes drilled by several past explorers across the Don Well and Caine Well areas prior to 1999.
The new 2 metre composite drill samples were analysed for key economic elements including iron, vanadium and titanium by Ultra Trace laboratories in Perth. As anticipated, the assay results confirm the exceptional widths, tenor and continuity of the 16 kilometre Balla Balla titanomagnetite horizon, which currently hosts Australia’s largest and richest JORC compliant vanadium resource and reserve.
BALLA BALLA DRILLING HIGHLIGHTS
HOLE WIDTH Fe V2O5 TiO2
BBR219 30m 51% 0.89% 13.8%
BBR223 30m 51% 0.86% 14.6%
BBR226 26m 50% 0.81% 14.6%
BBR232 22m 50% 0.76% 15.1%
BBR236 28m 48% 0.72% 14.5%
BBR254 24m 50% 0.88% 13.9%

Commencing this month, Golder Associates will undertake 3D block modeling work to define new resources for the BFS, Don Well and Caine Well areas. The modeling work will focus on optimising the vanadium and iron mineralisation, as both products are present in economic quantities and are currently the focus of proposed off-take contracts pending finalisation of the Aurox–Chengde Joint Venture agreement. (ASX announcement September 2006.) The new block models will subsequently be delivered to consultants Orelogy Pty Ltd for calculating optimal economic and mining parameters followed by the estimation of new JORC compliant reserves. It should be noted that the current Balla Balla reserve estimate does not include any titanomagnetite falling outside the current BFS limits. Nor do the current reserves include titanomagnetite that is weathered (oxide) or has a vanadium content of less than 0.6%. The weathered and lower-grade material can however be processed and sold as titanomagnetite concentrate for steelmaking mill feed and thus will be included in the new reserve estimation. The upcoming work by Orelogy is expected to dramatically increase the reserve position of the Balla Balla project.

I just bought in the company recently. Like to know if anyone have any thoughts about the demand and the price of vanadium.

Attached also is a chart of AXO... any T/A mind to make some comments? 

Hypnotic


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## hypnotic (6 March 2007)

AXO is looking great on the charts and in terms of news,

After falling back to the 78 cents level it has held through the correction so far because of the ore reserve upgrade. The lastest annoucement indicated it's Iron Ore/Vanadium in the BALLA BALLA project has increased by 92% to the follwing

                     Tonnes Mt              Fe%                     V2O5%
Proved               51.2                   46.1                       0.65

Probable             52.6                   45.4                       0.62

Total                 103.8                  45.7                       0.63

Young trader i like you to give me an opinion on this mine since you are knowledgable in Fe mines. What do you think about this company?
Though this is the only interesting project on this card. But it's got a huge reserve as mentioned before.

Technically the MACD on this one is just crossing the 0 mark but on low volume. And a big gap in the market depth. 7.5k at 81 cent buy and then seller is at 85 cents with 9k.... seems like the buyers are chasing the news. But no interest at all in this company.

I'll try and do an analysis on this when i have time.

Hypnotic


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## hypnotic (13 March 2007)

Good news for AXO!

*Aurox Nails Down 15 Year Iron Ore Off-take*

The Board of Aurox Resources Limited is pleased to announce the signing of a
long term Sales Agreement to supply Chengde Iron and Steel Group Company
Ltd with 3 million tonnes per annum of titanomagnetite iron ore concentrate
from its Balla Balla project commencing 2009.

Chengde Iron is one of the world's largest vanadium producer!!!

*AXO has a JORC compliant reserve of over 100 million tonnes grading 46% Fe
and 0.63% V2O5*

The BFS work to date has estimated the 3 million tpa concentrate plant capital cost to be AUD185 million, which includes all plant and infrastructure required to function as a stand-alone operation.

currently up 11.25%

But on low volume only.   60k exchanged with 14 trades today... Is there any reason why there is not much interest????

Looks encouraging though. Definitely one to hold for a medium to long term in my opionion.

Hypnotic


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## hypnotic (21 March 2007)

*EXCELLENT NEWS*

AXO has just signed a MOU with a major diversified resource company to develop the Balla Balla project.

*The proposed terms include The Company taking strategc positions via investments at both the coporate and project levels*

There will be much more activity on this one within the next month. 

Interesting times.

Anyone else following this one???

Hypnotic


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## hypnotic (21 March 2007)

AXO is looking really good.

Can someone do a chart for me and see how that is technically.   

So far today up 18% on this news... 

Who is this big company singing the MOU.... really want to know.......

But judging by the response, bigger things to come on this one...   

Hypnotic


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## Devil_Star (21 March 2007)

I have been holding AXO for a few month. I feel consident on it as a mid-long term investment too.


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## hypnotic (23 March 2007)

*Another Great News for AXO*

The Balla Balla project keeps getting better!! With the MOU counting down and news like this coming out, surely a JV will be signed very soon. Definitely one to look out for in the following month.

Annoucement!!!
*********
TITANIUM RECOVERY STUDY ENCOURAGING
Aurox has completed a dedicated titanium recovery study on the Balla Balla “nonmagnetic tailings” material using microscopy and Scanning Electron Microscopy (“SEM”) techniques. The tailing samples represent remains from the magnetic separation process used to produce iron concentrate from the Balla Balla ore. The analysis shows the nonmagnetic tailings contain significant amounts of large “free milling” Ilmenite grains which have the potential to be processed into titanium products. Significant quantities of Ilmenite (FeTiO3) are present in the Balla Balla titanomagnetite orebody. Ilmenite is a high-value feedstock used to produce Titanium metals which are in increasing demand by aerospace and other hi-tech industries. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is a common ingredient in white pigments used for paint and paper manufacture The long-term forecast for Titanium metal and Titanium dioxide is very bullish, with Aurox receiving early expressions of interest from several parties wishing to purchase any titanium concentrates produced at Balla Balla.
Photomicrographs of the non-magnetic Balla Balla tailings clearly show large discrete Ilmenite grains. These observations were confirmed using SEM techniques at the University of Western Australia. The SEM study (particularly using SEM backscatter imaging) demonstrates that the Ilmenite content of all the Balla Balla samples examined was higher than the estimations determined using reflective microscopy. The Ilmenite grains are identified by their high Titanium spectra which are easily distinguished from the titanomagnetite spectra. The SEM study confirms the dominance of Ilmenite, particularly in the coarser particle size fraction, which indicates that the grains may be easily recovered into concentrate using conventional low-cost processing methods.

A number of titanomagnetite operations in China and the former USSR produce Ilmenite concentrate from non-magnetic tailings following the iron ore concentration process. Aurox has commissioned further testwork to evaluate the most efficient process for concentrating the Balla Balla Ilmenite. Typically, the weakly magnetic Ilmenite in the non-magnetic tailings is subjected to high-intensity magnetic separation followed by flotation; a process commonly employed in operating mines. Aurox will also deliver sample tailings material to overseas equipment manufacturers who have agreed to carry out Ilmenite recovery testwork in order to secure future equipment
supply contracts.

Aurox commenced work on the Balla Balla Bankable Feasibility Study in February 2006, initially focusing on the development a 5,900 tpa ferrovanadium FeV80 operation. In September 2006, Aurox commenced Definitive Feasibility Study work on a titanomagnetite concentrate circuit to operate alongside the vanadium plant.
**********

Hypnotic


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## hypnotic (19 April 2007)

AXO is trying to break through the $1 mark.

Anyone else following this little one???


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## hypnotic (19 April 2007)

Looking like good support over the $1 mark for now. 

News out for AXO,

YALGOO SHOWS IRON ORE POTENTIAL
• Yalgoo properties (100% Aurox) yield significant Iron assays
• Initial reconnaissance sampling delineates 6.5 km by 1.5 km target zone
• Rock chip assays up to 60% Fe, averaging 46% Fe
• New iron anomaly located adjacent to bitumen highway, gas pipeline,
historical rail route
• Yalgoo township and infrastructure 11 km due west of iron anomaly
• Geraldton Port Development at Oakagee 220 km west
• Follow-up work to include testing of additional aeromagnetic targets

Interesting, other than the Balla Balla reserve its got a side Iron Ore project 100% owned too.

Looks promising.  

Hypnotic


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## hypnotic (21 May 2007)

News out on Updates for AXO! 

- Looks like AXO's Balla Balla is going to be negotiated very very soon!! And more parties have approached AXO, this doesn't seem to reflect on the share price yet. Though we have been waiting a while for anything to happen.

Quote from update on 21st May 07
"Aurox’s senior management is currently planning to meet with The Company’s Senior Executivesat their head-office with the aim of furthering negotiations toward an investment agreementdesigned to rapidly move the Balla Balla project into production.
Aurox has also been approached recently by several new parties expressing their strong interests inparticipating in Balla Balla investment and project financing.
Aurox will continue to evaluate investment offers to determine the most appropriate avenue to the rapid development of the Balla Balla Project and growth potential for shareholders."

- Titanium Lab test for the tailings from the reserve is due in 4 weeks. Already dispatched 60kg of samples to the lab

- Drilling and ground magnetics surveys at Yalgoo to commence soon they said upon avaiablility on drilling rigs.. so i say this won't commence for another quarter.

The share price is doing something really funny.
todays low at 84 cents and a high of 96 cents currently trading 92.5 cents.
might look like a mighty big hammer on the charts

Cheers,

Hypnotic


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## hypnotic (12 July 2007)

Seems like no one here is following AXO . But with Iron play in the spot light this is definitely one to watch.

AXO's Balla balla's succeeded in it's 76million dollar placement from both global and local investors with $76 million placement for its balla balla project. Positive news. Looks like we are getting a lot of support for this project and looks set to be up and running.

"The issue has primarily been undertaken to allow Aurox to:
• exercise its option to purchase the Balla Balla tenements;
• order and pay for long lead time capital items such as SAG and Ball mills; and
• commit to its contribution at the new Port Hedland port."

Looks like the infrastructure and project capital will be taken care of now.

"Aurox also advises that it plans to announce within the next week the results of its Bankable Feasibility Study for the development of a 3 million tpa iron ore operation and further information on the potential for additional iron ore concentrate sales."

I am aiting for this BFS.. looks like shareholders are very positive on this. Shareprice has gone up from 90cents to 1.16 in the last 2 days with the highest at 1.28!!!!!! 

Hypnotic


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## prawn_86 (13 July 2007)

AXO has been on my watchlist for about a year now, but i have never been financial enough to be able to get into them. 

very good potential imo though. wish i picked some up around 85c about 6 weeks ago!


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## hypnotic (13 July 2007)

AXO is running hot at the moment. With BFS due next week as stated.

Up another 14% today with strong volume 2.8Mil. It looks like this is the beginning of the run. But it has been running very hard, since coming out from suspension, in 3 days it has jumped from 90 cents to now 1.31 which is representing a 45.6% increase.
I am sure there will be some profit taking in the short term, but medium to long-term will hopefully reach $4.80 as per the patterson's evaluation using PMA's comparison, especially with a lot of the funding problem backed by investors!!!

Good luck to anyone who is holding!!

I am still holding this one

Hypnotic!!


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## Sean K (26 July 2007)

Good work hypnotic. Recently broken out quite significantly. You must be stocked!!

Bella bella looks great. Has it had it's run or is it still undervalued?

Lonsec's research report on their web site looks pretty bullish, even prior to the recent adventures, but also before the breakout. 

Might have formed a bit of a pole and pennant there ready to break up again?


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## Pommiegranite (26 July 2007)

A $90 million cap raising is what has stoppped the SP in its tracks.

However, sooner or later, when the market realises that this is in fact a major positive step for the company, the SP will be off again.

This is another high margin play like Ferrowest.

Does anyone have a pdf of Patterson's valuation report?

Thanks


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## hypnotic (26 July 2007)

Pommie,

Check out this link for Patterson's report on PMA 

http://www.pmal.com.au/aurora/assets/user_content/File/Broker Report - Patersons (Feb 2007).pdf

if the link don;t work go to PMA's website.

www.pmal.com.au then look under broker report and you should see it.

I am considering buying PMA too as TTY's director is looking at buying up a stake of PMA if they can buy out ConsMin.

Hypnotic


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## swoop (12 September 2007)

Seems to me that in the current market AXO is hands down the best iron ore play. The SP is stagnant atm as Hartleys is closing out a position. However looking at the fundamentals of this company it really seems a no brainer to me. They have one of the best resources in Australia albiet not as large as some of the more cheerled stocks. However the resource will no doubt be upgraded in due course. The have a very low capex and have 100% of their current JORC resource sold. Just compare mkt cap to some of its peers

IMO this is a $5 stock by end 2009.


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## Lycon (27 September 2007)

Up 11% atm? New to the game and can't see why.
 Anyone got any info?...............................................


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## Col Lector (8 October 2007)

AXO Balla Balla Iron/vanadium BFS released today. Figures seem quite healthy and project v.feasible as per figs below. Capex seems reasonable given the projected revenue flows, Does anyone have some thoughts on AXO or the BFS. SP finished slightly down at 1.18 today (mkt. cap $164 mill) despite the upbeat BFS, expectations of a tripling of the current resource, plenty of cash in the bank , cashed up Chinese partners, confirmed sales & well as other projects of interest on the cooker...
Not much traffic on this thread recently.. am I overlooking something??



> FINANCIAL FORECASTS
> NEW BFS & RECENT ECONONIC DATA
> AREA TOTALS
> Ore reserves 104Mt @ 45.7% Fe, 0.63% V2O5
> ...


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## hypnotic (8 October 2007)

AXO looks to be gaining momentum again. 
This is is going to be a mid to long term hold for me as i previously said, i believe in all the figures and support for this mine but it will take time a bit of time.

I presume that most of the profit taking has taken place back in July judging by the volume and volatility there. I too took profit myself there and bought back a bigger parcel after that, as i did anticipate a pull back.

Technically, a cup is forming nicely here and the share price is edging to break out at $1.20. MACD is heading up since August and crossed strongly a week ago or so. If the cup and handle forms and breaks out from the resistance of $1.40 this could head towards $1.70. 

Still looking closely at this one and happy with it  

Any other thoughts?

Hypnotic


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## Col Lector (8 October 2007)

Thanks for the chart Hypnotic. I think the sp may benefit short-medium upon digestion of the BFS figures. Moreso in the current environment where iron-ore is receiving high profile coverage as the annual negotiations approach & the angst between the first-tier miners & the Chinese/Japanese buyers picks up
Holding a small few but might grab a few more for the medium-long term basket....


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## Col Lector (9 October 2007)

AXO responding nicely to BFS release yesterday and to a good presentation on this on BRRadio this morning. Up about 12% with plenty of support.


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## hypnotic (9 October 2007)

AXO is looking great pushed through 1.30 today. Looks like the news were well received. 

Last Trade Today's Change     Volume     Open     Today's High   Today's Low
1.310         0.130 11.017%    2212017      1.210       1.350            1.205

Up 11% today on relatively high volume!!! 
I personally believe this is going to run this time round and stay up there judging by the numbers and sales and technically supporting this too.

Good luck to all holding.

Hypnotic


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## Col Lector (9 October 2007)

The Boardroom Radio presentation was pretty emphatic about the upside potential at Balla Balla beyond that covered by the BFS. The BFS projections are reasonably conservative  given they dont factor in the late announced 66%! increase  in sale product (ie from 6 to 10m tpa from Yr 5) and the scale benefits associated. Also they appear pretty confident they can triple the resource beyond 300mt....& a 25 year project life.


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## Col Lector (9 October 2007)

AXO has received a late speeding ticket...& is fairly vigorously arguing the case, gathering from the detail they delve into in their response, below.... 
Its encouraging that the management has such an analytical fervour I guess...
Could come in handy when it comes time to total up the shiploads departed & $ banked.


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071009/pdf/3150yk2y7dby8f.pdf


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## Col Lector (10 October 2007)

The Aurox update...enthusiasm from BFS-related buyers early, opened at 1.37; followed by day high 1.435; day low 1.30 & finished fairly strongly at 1.35 for a 3.1% daily gain. Volatile day...! 
Volume ~3 million - with some of the buyer interest in AXO no doubt due to the MMX takeover lunge on MIS & sudden increased focus on advanced "small-cap"  iron-ore plays, courtesy of this. 
Will we see continuing consolidation in this sector?ie, to achieve scale/pool transport/ensure funding...
Even the perception that this consolidation could occur may spur both local & OS players into a bidding frenzy aimed at snaring their chosen patches. 
What value will the market put on AXO & its "advanced" status....(BFS-complete with stated project upside to 300million tonnes over 25yrs) under this scenario? A task made easier by knowing the price MMX is offering to pay for MIS. I'm sure there's a few doing the sums....


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## hypnotic (10 October 2007)

I wonder if this price of $1.35 have factored in the potential of expanding the life of the mine and increase of resources yet???

Anyhow i am going to sit on this for a few months and wait for the drilling program to confirm their resource for the remainder of the 11km according to the boardroom radio. Just hope iron hasn't lose it luster by that time.

Good luck and fingers crossed for a big one tomorrow. 

Does anyone know which website i can check for iron ore prices, i have tried googling to no avail.


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## hypnotic (12 October 2007)

AXO retracted today, fail to break through the $1.40 and closing lower today
at $1.28. Is this going to be the handle for the cup?? 

I feel the new support line is around $1.18 it wont be good if it falls below this point.

Any techies out there willing to offer some insight technically??

Cheers,

Hypnotic


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## The Barbarian Investor (20 November 2007)

Bought into this one today as a spec stock (looking long term though); time will tell whether it was the right decision..anyone else holding or have news or thoughts on AXO?


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## hypnotic (21 November 2007)

Looks like Mac Bank just took up 5.15% of this company...

That should explain the recent jump in share price... looks like Mac bank also finds value out of this gem.. 

Still holding for long term.

Cheers,

Hypnotic


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## Lycon (11 March 2008)

Just read their last quarterly activity statement.
They have plenty of cash.
In construction phase on balla balla project.
Encouraging drilling results released recently.
Steel mills lined up and waiting to take the ore, plus their other projects they seem way under valued.

I'm only an amateur am I missing something or is this just another result of this market down trend?

Any thoughts on this would be appreciated


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## Muschu (22 March 2008)

This stock seems to be suffering more than most, and on the back of little news that I am aware of.  
The SP is presently under 70c -- less than half its peak in the latter part of 2007.
Even given the volatility, they seem very well cashed-up, have made no adverse announcements [that I am aware of], and their prospects seem to be consistent with the projections of late 2007.
Far be it from me to pretend I know what is transpiring, but does anyone else have any thought to share?
Some of the earlier posts on this thread suggested a very promising future for AXO.  Has this changed?


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## jman2007 (24 April 2008)

The market's a funny thing sometimes....

Guys I think there is a bit more going on here than just a simple down-turn in the market to account for the AXO sp movement.

I think part of the problem might be the vanadium connection at Balla-balla, and the marketing (or lack off) that AXO have undertaken to advertise themselves.  I gather the magnetite contains significant quantities of vanadium (a potential contaminant) that AXO were originally intending to exploit, but then changed their focus to magmetite 2-3 years ago. So are people wondering:

A.) Are these guys a vanadium company or an iron ore company?

B.) What's with the vanadium anyway?...is it being co-extracted with the magnetite and being exported to China like this?

You'd think with two major Chinese steelmakers onboard, $70M in the bank and an economically robust project, that this would be going gangbusters perhaps, but there are several issues that require clairification here imo.

Maybe the biggest hurdle will be financing Balla balla, I imagine in the order of $500-600M? at least. Although magnetite ore is certainly more energy intensive to process than straight shippable haematite, it can be done by specialised outfits in China.

Comments from any holders?

jman (DNH)


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## hypnotic (2 May 2008)

Some insider news on AXO?

Can someone explain the price move today?

up 24 cents or 31.58% so far, was up as high as 29 cents.. followed from yesterday's 8.5% rise.

Hypnotic


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## jman2007 (19 May 2008)

Some interesting action today,

AXO threatened to break through 1.00 on a very strong morning session, before finally closing 3.8% up at 95c. 

I would say the recent rise from approx 65c in AXO was partly due to the glowing AGO report released by ML. Probably the sentiment has filtered through the sector to a degree.  No such in-depth coverage available for AXO however, they probably need a broker to raise their market awareness.

So what do these guys actually have?? The items in bold, I consider to be either key milestones to be achieved, or positive factors:

- Ordinary shares on issue: 149M

- *Project construction costs $850M*

- *Production start-up Sept 2010*

- Approx 45% Fe grade, magnetite ore body

- Very favourable project economics

- Targeting 650Mt resource/350Mt reserve Spet 08

- 6mtpa concentrate production, target 14mtpa 2014

- $72M cash on hand.

- *15 year contract with Chinese customers* 

- Slurry pipe transport to Port Headland

- *Strip ratio during operations Y1 through to Y5 of 1:1* 

- *Long-lead items on order; SAG mill, crusher.*

- Secured stockpile areas at Port Headland

Probably the main thorn in their side is the not-so-small amount of capital required to fund construction at Balla balla, in the order of $850M. They're hoping to debt fund potentially up to 65% of the costs, and then use an equity rasing to obtain the remaining cash. Probably they will withhold the equity raising until they obtain some traction in the price, too dilutory otherwise. New Holland Capital, the AXO debt advisors, have held introductory talks with several Australian and overseas's groups interested in financing the project. 

This whole phosphate issue raising its head has me a little bemused tbh. Sure, lab tests may be able to show that economic amounts of phosphate can be extracted under highly-controlled lab conditions, but to apply this technology at a plant-scale is an entirely different scenario. The 5% initital phospahte grade from the waste needs to be concentrated to 30% for a realistically saleable product, requiring crushing, grinding and flotation, so basically a separate flow sheet altogether!  Perhaps they're just looking for a bit of attention. They seem to be saying "yeah well we have to mine waste to gain access to the magnetite ore body anyway, so we can kill two birds with one stone!" Hmmmm....I'm not _entirely_ convinced of this argument just yet, if they can demosnstrate this process at pilot-plant scale, then well....I might pay a bit more attention.

Anyways, looks like a pretty robust project, and one that has flown under most people's radar I'm sure. If they can keep their *focus*, and not become distracted with the phosphate issue too much, this _could_ get very interesting very quickly. I am watching this extremely closely. Look out for any positive news re financing to drive this north.

jman

Disclaimer: DNH


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## Muschu (3 June 2008)

"Business, Finance and Market News.....
Peter Klinger and Kate Emery 
June 3, 2008 

.....Whispers continue to suggest Aurox Resources could unveil a deal with Chinese state-owned Chengde Iron and Steel Group as early as this week.

Aurox was up 7.5 ¢ to a near five-month high of $1.08....."

http://www.businessday.com.au/brockman-set-to-ride-the-iron-wave-20080602-2kwx.html


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## jman2007 (19 June 2008)

AXO into an 'eagerly anticipated' trading halt...

Hmmpf...Management are certianly good at quashing rumours and making denials, however, they have stated clearly this morning that the Company is "entering into a material contract in relation to the Balla Balla project".

Presumably, with the wording of that statement it will have some kind of 'important', 'significant' or otherwise effect on the company's prospects. I have been aware of the Chinese whisper rumour doing the rounds, but AXO are playing their cards very close to their chests atm. I would not expect the announcement to be re finance (would take months surely? ).

Potentially this could relate to a part-sale of the project, or the purchase or arrival of a major piece of machinery/equipment. Purely speculation at this stage though...

jman


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## Golf 16 (22 June 2008)

Glad you posted jman


jman2007 said:


> AXO into an 'eagerly anticipated' trading halt...
> 
> Hmmpf...Management are certianly good at quashing rumours and making denials, however, they have stated clearly this morning that the Company is "entering into a material contract in relation to the Balla Balla project".
> 
> ...





I too was wondering what this was all about. I thought that perhaps Muschu's earlier posting might turn out to be right ie  "Business, Finance and Market News.....
Peter Klinger and Kate Emery 
June 3, 2008 

.....Whispers continue to suggest Aurox Resources could unveil a deal with Chinese state-owned Chengde Iron and Steel Group as early as this week.

A deal looks to be on the cards - I wonder of what sort? Given the significant capital expense to get Balla Balla up and running it has always been on the cards that some part of the project could be sold or some sort of JV struck. Is that too fancifull at this stage? 
I remain 'on edge'.

Regards to all holders, Golf.


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## jman2007 (23 June 2008)

jman2007 said:


> . I would not expect the announcement to be re finance (would take months surely? ). Potentially this could relate to a part-sale of the project, or the purchase or arrival of a major piece of machinery/equipment. Purely speculation at this stage though...




So the trading halt was to announce a 15-year deal, brokered with the Port Headland body for a designated magnetite stockpiling area, dewatering facility and ship loading facility for AXO. 

I am wondering if a trading halt was absolutely necessary for this news, positive as it was, perhaps the boat may be slightly leaky? : On the other hand, given that we can expect an increasing amount of competition for infrastructure in this region, I'm sure the significance of the deal hasn't been lost on AXO management.

Another box ticked nonetheless.

jman


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## jman2007 (4 July 2008)

Tut tut... 

It's been an  interesting few days for AXO, well-timed announcement on the 01/07 re a 46% increase in the Balla Ballla Resource, which now stands at 473Mt @ 43.2% Fe. The implosion in the US and our own weak market have taken a fair bit of wind out of their sails though. On target for 1Bt by the end of the year?...well yes, acording to AXO they are. 

On a somewhat more embarassing note for the company, they have failed to release a change in substansial holding notice to the market re a certain Mr Zhang Xiangqing, a Director of the Company, who acquired another 1.5M shares on market seemingly between 20 March - 13th June (depending on how you interpret the release..). This kind of thing does p$$s me off a bit tbh , the rules are laid out in clearly, and if they're not followed properly we don't have a free and fair market... I'm not overly familiar with the background of some of these chaps tbh, gonna have to do some more digging I think...

My rant for the day...

jman


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## jman2007 (6 July 2008)

Been looking at the economics of Balla Balla in a bit more detail,

Fully diluted, AXO have a MC of approx AUD$ 190m. As of May 08 thay had $73m in cash reserves.

The latest AXO presentation uses assumptions of 135 USc per dry metric tonne unit ((dmtu) which looks like it factors in future increase in Hammersley fines prices), operating costs of $31/tonne concentrate, and a unit EBITDA of $41.39/tonne concentrate (assuming 9% moisture and an exchange rate of 90USc/AUD).

Annual EBITDA for 6Mtpa (2010-2014) is $248M, and for 10Mtpa (2014>) $414M. Current Capex estimates are in the order of $850M.

Obviously the capex would be the main hurdle to overcome atm, until this is finalised I can't see a dramatic re-evaluation occurring. 

Probably fair to assume a 50:50 split between debt and equity. On that basis MC would dilute to approx. $560-570M. On last current trading price of around 88c, p/e using the AXO EBITDA data works out to be 2.3 from 2010-2014 and 1.35 for 2014 onwards. Whether it's advisable to use EBITDA for a p/e determination I don't know (advice anyone ), as obviously it leaves out the cash required to fund working equipment, replace old equipment etc. I would also expect around 70% of the free cash flow in the first four years to go towards the payback for the plant.

Still looks pretty cheap on that basis though.

The other upside of Balla Balla that needs to be factored in is the processing of the tailings for titanium and phosphate. I guess it would be more correct to refer to their bulk product as "titanomagnetite", not hamematite...but not quite magnetite either!  (but what about the vanadium? ). Anyway, the 300,000tpa from Y1-Y5, and 500,000tpa from Y5 onwards of TiO2 would be worth approx US$50 per unit of 46% conc. Pretty minimal processing costs too, some regrind and slurry pipe transport to PH.

I wonder what the slurry pipe transport option to PH is worth to them over the long-term, in terms of savings in transport costs? One would have to think it would be significant.

Comments welcome.

jman


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## Sean K (11 July 2008)

This does seem to very undervalued on the facts at the moment. Back down to .80 with the market tide. 

Capex probably the biggest turn off for people looking at it in the current financial crisis, which is going to be the biggest problem for all the developers over the coming months. There'll be a lot of has beens I think. 

But with the sales locked in, surely they will get the required financial backing.  

All the numbers presented above seem fair to me. And geesh, if they get the 1b target by Christmas then you can see that it's running a little under the radar.



> The Company is aiming to define a 650 million tonne Resource by the end of August and expects to exceed 1 billion tonnes before Christmas,”




One to watch for when (if) the market settles.


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## jman2007 (14 August 2008)

I was reasonably encouraged by the last Quaterly,

Probably a good move by AXO to undertake a capex review of Balla Balla, as the last estimate was nine months ago, and there have obviously been a heck of a lot of changes in the credit and financial sectors since then.

Appears as though someone may have been short-selling this all the way down, which is frustrating to say the least. I have to say the fall from 80c to 60c has occurred on very low volume, and I am not keen to re-enter until I see some substansial support appearing. 

Obviously a busy quater coming up for the company, with all kinds of engineeering scoping studies underway, continual resource def drilling etc to feed to the market. 

A frustrating time atm however.

jman


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## jman2007 (21 September 2008)

Another technical update from management,

Re the debt financing option, the Company received epressions of interest from 12 banks re debt financing for Balla Balla. This has been shortlisted to a syndicate of 5 banks, with bank due diligence due to kick off shortly.

Essentially most of the engineering and met work is progressing more or less to the timetable, the slurry pipe option for transporting concentrate to PH has been shown to be the most economic option, and groundwtater studies indicate that they should have in ecess of 30% over the required volumes to sustain long-term production, which is great. Hopefully we'll see Environmental approval granted by the Environment Minister Q1 2009... 

AXO are also looking into the option for co-extracting a titanium concentrate from illmenite potentially reaching a throughput of 550,000 tpa. The capex for this would be fairly negligible as this process could essneially operate off the "back-end" of the existing magnetite processing plant.

The P205 Resource numbers in the hanging wall waste rock sound pretty crazy to me:

89,693,000 Tonnes @ 3.74% P2O5 (of which 72,627,000 is Measured)

A 30-32% concentrate would be saleable, and if they are able to produce 1Mtpa of P2O5 conc this would obviously further strengthen the already strong economics. I haven't ran any numbers for the Phosphate potential at Balla Balla, but it would obviosuly look pretty bloody good. Cash on hand less than what I epected, at $36M, but I may consider an entry around 36c based on what we know already.

jman


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## jman2007 (17 October 2008)

This is getting interesting

Up 70% since Friday, and two Directors have been buying, Zhang has picked up almost 2M shares for an absolute song, and Sillcock has chipped in too. As well, RockCheck steelgroup have increased their holding to 10.3% which is also very interesting. Hopefully we'll get some news soon re the banking syndicate visit to Balla Balla. We could do with a good news story. Unsure yet what RockCheck's motives are, although they undoubtedly have helped the sp recover.


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## jman2007 (25 October 2008)

Aurox, WPG eye Chinese Financing

http://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/2035352/Iron/Aurox-WPG-eye-Chinese-financing.html

Capex estimate increases to 1 Billion AUD, obviously if 35% is to be funded with equity AXO realistically can't do this at 20c. No mention from AXO what the outcome of the visit by the banking syndicate was, but tbh I feel the Chinese will be more the likely candidates to come to the party. I am expecting Rockcheck to continue increase its holdings and try to create a blocking stake.

jman


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## jman2007 (26 October 2008)

"China Hebei Steel seeks to Finance Aurox Project"

http://www.yourmetalnews.com/china+hebei+steel+seeks+to+finance+aurox+project_13753.html

http://www.chinamining.org/Investment/2008-10-24/1224815974d18469.html

http://steelguru.com/news/index/2008/10/26/Njg1NDU%3D/Hebei_Steel_to_join_Aurox_iron_ore_project.html

Looks like quite a few sites carrying this story today, I do stress that the overlying theme is that negotiations are at an "early stage". Sounds like most of the big players were at the steel conference in China.

Could be a rollercoaster ride for AXO holders this week, I wonder if this will signal another buying rush from Rockcheck Steel?

jman


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## jman2007 (11 November 2008)

Well at least one firm has initiated coverage of AXO,

http://www.aurox.com.au/assets/Uploads/research/ABN-AMRO-30th-October-2008-research-report.pdf

ABN rates AXO as a buy, with a target price of $1, which is at a 50% discount to their valuation to allow for the cost of debt financing and equity raisings to finance Balla Balla. Otherwise, the research doesn't add too much more too the story that we don't already know. Obviously it rates the capex requirement as the biggest hurdle to overcome.

Rockcheck Steel have got to absolutely loving this, they've got their hands on another 5% of the company in the last 3 weeks for next to nothing. Now I understand why Chengde Iron and Steel are happy to pay the Hamersley Fines prices for the magnetite concentrate - they're getting the vanadium for free according to Schaus! 

jman


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## jman2007 (22 March 2009)

Definitely in the doghouse still,

And still pretty frustrating being a shareholder I have to say...

But there have been a few signs of progress lately. Most of the announcements in 2009 have centered around AXO's reduction in expenditure, notably a suspension of engineering work being carried out by Siemen's and a variation in the agreement at the Utah Port facility - basically if they can't finalise financing by 31st March 2010 then they forfeit their loading facility there.

The early note conversion deal struck with the _majority_ of the major holders was probably a good outcome. The 50-odd million notes had a face value of 95c and were due to mature in 2010... if AXO had had to pay the noteholders out - then goodbye Balla Balla! The 25c price represents about a $12.5 M expense for the company for an early conversion of _all_ the notes... but better than being bankrupted by June next year. Not sure who the other 30% party are, but they must be playing a bit of hardball one would imagine.

Still waiting for final Ministerial approval to advance Balla Balla, which is more or less the final hurdle to overcome before financing can be arranged. Obviously finance is the going to the big ugly hill to conquer... but I wonder if Hebei are waiting for the Enviro approval before taking some kind of stake in the project? Who knows, it's all speculation right now.

jman


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## Sainter (23 March 2009)

I would assume the last 30% includes a fair number of small shareholders, so too difficult to deal with all of them. They seem to have done a good job to stitch up the top 70%-that will save them from what otherwise would have been pretty ugly come note redemption time next year.
I do not hold.


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## jman2007 (23 March 2009)

Sainter said:


> I would assume the last 30% includes a fair number of small shareholders, so too difficult to deal with all of them. They seem to have done a good job to stitch up the top 70%-that will save them from what otherwise would have been pretty ugly come note redemption time next year.
> I do not hold.




Yes good point,

That's probably who the other 30% of holders are. I imagine some of the more stubborn ones may not take up the offer though. Still, the outcome could have been much worse.


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## gone2thepack (17 April 2009)

So with AXO hitting up to 19.5 today,is this a trend that is likely to continue?
I feel that its bound to rise further as the shares in my oppinion are really undervalued,but the question is a matter of when??.
Open for discussion anyone?

Gone2thepack


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## jman2007 (18 April 2009)

gone2thepack said:


> So with AXO hitting up to 19.5 today,is this a trend that is likely to continue?
> I feel that its bound to rise further as the shares in my oppinion are really undervalued,but the question is a matter of when??.
> Open for discussion anyone?
> 
> Gone2thepack




Well it's up almost 200% since its low @7.7c, expect the ASX to issue a speeding ticket some time next week. Has been looking quite strong throughout the days trading during the week too, which is obviously a good sign - no depressed sellers keen to exit just yet it seems. Another stock that was ridculously oversold - and I missed the boat again!

Still no word on the pending Environmental approval, could possibly be some inisder action going on though one would think 

jman


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## jman2007 (5 May 2009)

jman2007 said:


> Still no word on the pending Environmental approval, could possibly be some inisder action going on though one would think




The break is on again 

Up another 30% during the past two days. This is really quite remarkable, and has left me absolutely gob-smacked : I thought 30c may have provided a temporary ceiling, but it has cruised through that with ease.

The EPA approval was an important stepping stone, and was the last barrier before any formal steps could be taken to tackle the issue of finance. No co-incidence that Charles and Co were back in China buttering up the Chinese again. 

The convertible note early conversion may in fact be a life saver for AXO, despite the 20% or so of note holders hanging out for the 95c. The 10,000,000 notes remaining represent approx $8.5M which is a considerable chunk of AXO's remaning cash.

There is however now a better than even chance that AXO could raise more capital when the time comes to help pay for the remaining conversions - so those secured shareholders who wish for AXO to be put into administration may be left disppointed.


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## Sainter (6 May 2009)

As I understand it, AXOG is the only debt of any note, and so if AXO falls over, AXOG is first in line to recover costs. So AXOG holders are pretty safe given only $9.1M would need to be picked from any carcass if indeed it did fall over. If they get the big $ they need to start the operation, the outstanding $9.1M of AXOG would merely be an incidental cost in the scheme of things.
I hold AXOG (bought in once the buyback was announced-not as many as I wanted) and intend to hold to redemption. I may not gain as much as new AXO shareholders have got recently in terms of gains, but I felt it was a more certain bet to get a 200+% return in little over a year. I'll accept the risk/return equation on that one!
Cheers!


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## jman2007 (7 May 2009)

Sainter said:


> As I understand it, AXOG is the only debt of any note, and so if AXO falls over, AXOG is first in line to recover costs. So AXOG holders are pretty safe given only $9.1M would need to be picked from any carcass if indeed it did fall over. If they get the big $ they need to start the operation, the outstanding $9.1M of AXOG would merely be an incidental cost in the scheme of things.




Latest brr boadcast with Charles if you're interested Sainter

http://www.brr.com.au/event/57430

Charles didn't give too much away, but I did get the impression he remains very confident in the viablity of the project. The net debt relief from the early conversion of the notes is $33M, and as you say the only debt of any note will be the remaining notes and interest obligations - less than $10M.


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## Randoi (12 June 2009)

I note there has been a wee spike in volume in the last few days...... any ideas anyone? Could there be some Chinese money on its way?
I don't hold any but have been watching closely.


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## jman2007 (12 June 2009)

Randoi said:


> I note there has been a wee spike in volume in the last few days...... any ideas anyone? Could there be some Chinese money on its way?
> I don't hold any but have been watching closely.




I suspect it is probably some of the smarter money moving into the iron ore juniors, in anticipation that the Chinese may want to increase their stake in the Pilabara, in light of the Chinalco-Rio deal collpase. It had a very strong start to the day yesterday, but then got pummelled in an intraday selloff, looks to be holding up ok today though.


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## Sean K (15 June 2009)

This is going bananas.

Another to slip under the radar for me.

Sorry I wasn't watching closely enough.


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## jman2007 (15 June 2009)

kennas said:


> This is going bananas.
> 
> Another to slip under the radar for me.
> 
> Sorry I wasn't watching closely enough.




I guess the scene was partially set on Friday with increased volume and some strong buying, although it did go completely gangbusters today - reistance at 35 and 37c got smashed. Believe it or not I'm still marginally out of the money with AXO , I did average down at 30c last year, but considered that the note conversion issue (now essentially put to bed) was potentially a company breaker - so I can hardly claim to have put my money where my mouth is! Speeding ticket this arvo - "I know nothing" as Manuel would say...


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## jman2007 (3 July 2009)

Still an absolute roller-coaster ride on the AXO train, from 33-34c up to 49c - and then back down again to the low 30's in a matter of 1-2 days! No real progress updates from the company recently. As I've always said, and many other people will realise, is that only a concrete committment from a 3rd party in terms of capex is likely to see AXO rise above 50c in the short-mid term. With the curent apparent pullback in spending, their 15-odd million should hopefully see them through to the end of the calendar year.


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## jman2007 (17 July 2009)

Pretty ordinary that we here about this through flamin' Bloomberg, and not a company update.. wtf??  This company has never been great at keeping their shareholders informed. If Charles strikes a deal however, it will run hard.

"Aurox in China Talks to Secure Funding for A$1 Billion Ore Mine"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMcr76L_Cisg

By Jesse Riseborough

July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Aurox Resources Ltd., an Australian iron ore company, is in talks with a Chinese steel mill to secure funding for a A$1 billion ($803 million) project. 

“We have been back and forth to China, we are talking to some pretty obvious groups with regards to coming in as more than just” customers for the planned mine in Western Australia, Charles Schaus, managing director of the Perth-based company, said in an interview. He declined to name the mill. 

Chinese mills are investing in Australia to secure ore supplies to feed rising demand for steel. China’s economy grew 7.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier after the government implemented a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan that’s sucking in raw materials from around the globe. 

“Money is flowing into the junior end of iron ore share markets, with many exploration and development companies undertaking equity raisings,” Trent Allen, an iron ore analyst at Resource Capital Research, said today in a report. “There are continuing signs of recovery in the iron ore sector.” 

Aurox was unchanged at 32 cents at 11:35 a.m. Sydney time on the Australian stock exchange. 

The company has signed sales agreements with Hebei Iron & Steel Group, China’s second-largest mill, and closely held Chinese steelmaker RockCheck Steel Group. 

Schaus will visit China next week for further talks with the unnamed mill and aims to secure an investment agreement by the end of the year, he said in an interview yesterday. 

Talks involve a possible joint venture partnership in the project and an equity stake in the company, Schaus said. The partner would be responsible for securing debt funding, he said. 

Expansion Study 

The company is seeking to start shipments at an annual rate of 6 million metric tons of magnetite iron ore concentrate by March 2012, he said. It’s studying an expansion to 10 million tons a year by 2014, he said. 

RockCheck, based in Tianjin, has agreed to buy 3 million tons of output annually for 15 years while Hebei has also agreed to buy 3 million tons a year. RockCheck also owns an 11.5 percent stake in Aurox and has agreed to buy the additional 4 million tons of output once the expansion is complete. 

A review of the construction costs for the mine started this month and the estimate may decline by between 10 percent and 15 percent, Schaus said. Aurox plans to pipe output 110 kilometers (69 miles) from its Balla Balla mine site to Port Hedland in northern Western Australia for shipping.


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## Muschu (22 December 2009)

Any thoughts on today's announcement?  I feel I have been very patient with this iron ore investment................. as with several others for that matter.


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## Golf 16 (22 December 2009)

Muschu said:


> Any thoughts on today's announcement?  I feel I have been very patient with this iron ore investment................. as with several others for that matter.




Well Muschu, no matter what I felt the market didn't think much as the SP slid down again. 
Of course a 15% reserve increase is positive news, one would have felt it would be welcomed. I thought the more interesting bit was 
"The Ore Reserve increase is a result of pit optimisation and design work carried out by mining consultants Orelogy Pty Ltd on near surface mineral resources located in the Far West Area of the 18.5 kilometre long Balla Balla deposit. ...
”While the maiden Far West Ore Reserve estimate is a good start, it is only a small section of our 18 kilometre long resource, and the Far West is expected to grow substantially once drilling and resource modelling resumes."
I guess that is the 'teaser' and keep me 'in' rather than 'out' which is what any technical analysis advises. I should have got out when the SP was at least above 32 c which seems some time ago.
Unfortunately that makes me a believer. Hmmmm
Anyway, that is my view rick. I would value others' contributions.  
Regards Golf


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## ctp6360 (8 February 2010)

Does anyone else hold this one?

Was put in a trading halt on Friday as a result of them securing new financing. I hold this one and it looks quite positive after a crappy couple of weeks!


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## Muschu (8 February 2010)

ctp6360 said:


> Does anyone else hold this one?
> 
> Was put in a trading halt on Friday as a result of them securing new financing. I hold this one and it looks quite positive after a crappy couple of weeks!




Announcement certainly didn't help the SP.  Any interpretations of that?  For myself  I have little idea.

Regards

Rick


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## Muschu (22 February 2010)

Again, no gains today despite modest announcements in a rising market.  

I do not hold AXO at this time [I have previously] but have it on my watchlist.

R


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## Muschu (10 March 2010)

AGO and AXO have both been in a trading halt.  This morning they announced a merger and both now have a trading status of "Adjust".  

Anyone know how long they can stay this way?

Thanks

Rick


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## Miner (10 March 2010)

Muschu said:


> AGO and AXO have both been in a trading halt.  This morning they announced a merger and both now have a trading status of "Adjust".
> 
> Anyone know how long they can stay this way?
> 
> ...




rick
if you are holding this AXO , you must have won a lotto by now.
trading ban lifted and AXO lifted by 148% woh 
DNH


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## AngusSmart (10 March 2010)

I wish someone would buy out the mining companies i have shares in..

140% would be great today! haha


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## ctp6360 (10 March 2010)

I hold a fair bit of AXO. Now I am just at a total loss as to whether to hold on longer or sell to capitalise on this huge increase!


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## prawn_86 (10 March 2010)

Still isn't above the $1 mark it was a few years ago. Good fair value offer or opportunistic by Atlas?


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## Muschu (10 March 2010)

Miner said:


> rick
> if you are holding this AXO , you must have won a lotto by now.
> trading ban lifted and AXO lifted by 148% woh
> DNH




Truth is I had an unfilled order just before it went into a trading halt.  I was a day late... but that's life.


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## Skip1jz (10 March 2010)

ctp6360 said:


> I hold a fair bit of AXO. Now I am just at a total loss as to whether to hold on longer or sell to capitalise on this huge increase!




Glad I toped up early last week 

I will be holding my entire parcel for the time being, I think the upside outweighs the risk to sell now. First of all I was looking at purchasing AGO quite some months ago @ 1.70 as I am confident of this being a good stock with regards to it's future growth and current production, particularly with the repricing of IO.

In the coming months if AGO shares should rise, AXO will follow suit. If they fall you are still locked in at 0.74 should the merge be completed.

There is also the possibility of a counter takeover from another company that will reprice AXO again. This happened to my Polaris shares, I sold out at 0.4 cents following the initial takeover bid, only to see them climb as high 0.8 

In my opinion all this outweighs the downside risk of the merge not going through and cashing out now.


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## gone2thepack (10 March 2010)

ctp6360 said:


> I hold a fair bit of AXO. Now I am just at a total loss as to whether to hold on longer or sell to capitalise on this huge increase!



Well i cant say i know alot about shares or where the bottom and top are, but it was a good day for me since i sold 5k at 66c after i bought 13 months ago at about 10c.
Im still holding a reasonable parcel of them as i believe the potential is there. I do have friends that bought in at $1.20 a while back, so just a gut feeling makes me think they may go back or even higher. For me its a keeper, so im doing all i can to hold onto these though the emotions scream to take the money and run.At close today i think they hit 73.5, and though they may rise and fall a bit (great for the short term fellas) im inclined to hold on just a bit longer. Thats my oppinion for whats its worth.
Cheers Ron


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