# Dow Jones technical analysis



## dj_420

I couldn't find a DOW analysis thread so I thought I would start one. At least then there is XAO and DOW analysis threads.

Anyway interesting that on the DOW charts the previous correction was still trending inside the same trading channel and found support right at the bottom of the channel.

Recently the drop has broken through the support on the trading channel. The last level support tested and held at 12,800 ish in the last correction. If the DOW continues to slump will we see this level be tested and hold again?

Also interesting that before the previous correction we had a blow off top and a break of the trading channel right before the market corrected.


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## CanOz

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Well done DJ, i'm impressed. You've really taken on a TA approach now, good to see. Maybe i've been away for a while?

Cheers,


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## dj_420

*Re: DOW Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Well done DJ, i'm impressed. You've really taken on a TA approach now, good to see. Maybe i've been away for a while?
> 
> Cheers,




Lol, cheers mate

Yeah I have been getting into indices and futures trading, opened up account with CMC Markets, I had done a little bit of stuff before on tech analysis but with uni finished it is time to learn a lot more.

DOW actually now looks to be finding support tonight, could be a signal for longs to re-enter.


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## bean

*Re: DOW Analysis*

I would also look at Dow Theory 
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:dow_theory

May play a bit in understanding.  The Transports have broke below the low in August so waiting on Industrials to confirm?


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## CanOz

*Re: DOW Analysis*



dj_420 said:


> Lol, cheers mate
> 
> Yeah I have been getting into indices and futures trading, opened up account with CMC Markets, I had done a little bit of stuff before on tech analysis but with uni finished it is time to learn a lot more.
> 
> DOW actually now looks to be finding support tonight, could be a signal for longs to re-enter.




Yeah, sure does, i've got one eye on the gold mini, and the other on the US indices....i still think there might be some sellers left in the US yet.

Cheers,


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## dj_420

*Re: DOW Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Yeah, sure does, i've got one eye on the gold mini, and the other on the US indices....i still think there might be some sellers left in the US yet.
> 
> Cheers,




I agree there could be selling left. It does seem that the intraday trends have been reducing in volatility as off today. Could we be reaching a bottom? There has been what seems to be a fairly controlled and constant sell off in the last few weeks, it may be slowing down.

Cheers for that link Bean


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## nizar

*Re: DOW Analysis*

The bottom is in?


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## dj_420

*Re: DOW Analysis*



nizar said:


> The bottom is in?




Seems like it, I went long on XJO before bed last night and now its up 80 odd points from entry. I think I may just hold onto this long for a few days, we could see a nice recovery.


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## Sean K

*Re: DOW Analysis*



nizar said:


> The bottom is in?



Looks likely, or at least close. Maybe confirmed going back through 13400...


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## nizar

*Re: DOW Analysis*



dj_420 said:


> Seems like it, I went long on XJO before bed last night and now its up 80 odd points from entry. I think I may just hold onto this long for a few days, we could see a nice recovery.




Your a champion who knows how to clean up.
Keep up the good work


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Don't usually bother much with the indicies as I find it too difficult to apply my trading method to them but....  the S+P, apart from lurking around the psycho. level of 1400, looks fib-wise to be potentially interesting...  
Maybe Santa Claus is coming to town??
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## Sean K

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Don't usually bother much with the indicies as I find it too difficult to apply my trading method to them but....  the S+P, apart from lurking around the psycho. level of 1400, looks fib-wise to be potentially interesting...
> Maybe Santa Claus is coming to town??
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



Another psychological factor for a bounce could be the 10% falls pretty much across all the indicies. While the more bearish will be saying more to come, those not covered in so much fur may consider the 'correction' an opportunity to get back in.


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## The Mint Man

*Re: DOW Analysis*

I agree Kennas,
I posted the following in the MQG thread yesterday, it might be useful for this thread too;


> Yahoo finance
> Monday November 26, 6:20 pm ET
> By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
> The Dow's decline from its mid-October closing high is now 10.03 percent, putting the blue chip index past the 10 percent threshold that signifies a correction........
> The Fed said it would inject $8 billion into the banking system on Wednesday. The amount of money is somewhat larger than in past years at this time......
> The Fed's decision to inject liquidity into the market isn't unusual for this time of year. Last year, the Fed added a net $21.9 billion into the system from the Monday following Thanksgiving until the first week of January.
> Lee Adler, publisher of The Wall Street Examiner, said the overall level of recent liquidity injections is consistent with past years....



click here to read more http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071126/wall_street.html?.v=45

IMO, I find this part to be quite telling - _'The Fed said it would inject $8 billion into the banking system on Wednesday.'_
Could this mean that the US markets will gain some confidence, possibly gear up for the Santa rally? This would be 2 days of good news in a row for the US.

Also todays market report looks very good;


> *Stocks Higher After Citi Secures Capital*
> Tuesday November 27, 5:29 pm ET
> By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
> *Wall Street Advances After Abu Dhabi Agrees to $7.5 Billion Investment in Citigroup​*
> NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street rebounded Tuesday after the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority said it will invest $7.5 billion in Citigroup Inc. -- a vote of confidence for the nation's largest bank, which has suffered severe losses amid the ongoing crisis in the mortgage market.



here for the whole thing - http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071127/wall_street.html

Cheers


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Don't usually bother much with the indicies as I find it too difficult to apply my trading method to them but....  the S+P, apart from lurking around the psycho. level of 1400, looks fib-wise to be potentially interesting...
> Maybe Santa Claus is coming to town??
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




 Santa's Claws spotted on the horizon...  although not sure if Rupert is up to the long haul...
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

What will this do for the markets tonight.. alongside BB's comments..   
Cheers
..........kauri



> The Bush administration and major financial institutions are close to agreeing on a plan that would temporarily freeze interest rates on certain troubled subprime home loans, according to people familiar with the negotiations (WSJ website).


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

S+P is interesting... how many times can you surge on the same percieved rate cut..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Is this the turning point.???
Cheep cheep
................Kauri


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## nikki

*trend broken*

Can someone help me understand this comment and idea from both technical and psychological viewpoint:

The Gartman Letter produces this chart today…pointing out that the Dow is now below the 200 day moving average and the 50 day average is “swiftly converging upon the latter from above”. They say “no matter how one casts the trendline going back to the lows of the summer of ’06, it has been broken”.  

There is an attachment that shows the trend line, etc. I follow the DOW Theory closely and have noticed that the utilities index has hit a significant all time high. This comment from the Gartman Letter confuses me??


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## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

I won't comment on theories , but ......... even after the stellar run we have seen over the last 2 nights , the Dow has not broken any technical levels of resistance . So in my books , it's a cliffhanger . So too the S&P 500 which is even more precipitous , but , the S&P did rocket though its 200 day MA ever so quickly , like in a couple of hours ....... so I labelled it an .. oh yeah .. 

Windows must have needed cleaning , or a frock .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

I've never used the Ichi indicator on indexes before , based most of it's application to forex , but I set one up and noted that the DJIA is below a cloud and if it was a forex chart I'd be short . But given that it is a dominated market indice I'll pause on that one due to the risk ..........

Might have to get into the loft and dig out my old Guppy bibles .


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## sam76

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Futures looking good for a rebound on the Dow.

FUTURES 
VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE 
Dow 13,544.00  94.00  0.70


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## bean

*Re: DOW Analysis*

A further update article re DOW THEORY -  it show other sectors of the US markets all not confirming.   
http://[URL="http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm"]www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm[/URL]

So we know where the DOW is going  and its got some making up to do


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## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Is that a head and shoulder pattern forming ........... ?


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## chops_a_must

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Does now!


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## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

S&P looks the same to me and I won't mention the cleavage mention


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Tonight G+S will come out with a good report card which will probably give the US the excuse it needs to pump up the market, data due tonight notwithstanding, but B+S and MS cards on weds and thurs may need a bit more of a creative spin to justify a rally??
:alcohol: = home-made Baileys.. works ffor me.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Real1ty

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Big day for the DOW today and for us tomorrow

*Stocks set for higher open
Futures point higher, boosted by strength in tech; investors await earnings from Bear Stearns.*

December 20 2007: 4:47 AM EST


LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stock futures rose Thursday as investors eyed solid results in the tech sector and awaited earnings from Wall Street firm Bear Stearns and a batch of economic readings.

At 4:30 a.m. ET, Nasdaq futures were stronger, boosted by solid results from Oracle. S&P futures also were narrowly higher, suggesting a positive open on Wall Street.

But if the past sessions are any indicator, optimism could easily evaporate. Stocks have gyrated recently on credit concerns. On Wednesday, the major gauges finished the session mixed after a volatile day of trading.

Investors are bracing for earnings from Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500), which is slated to report its first ever quarterly loss before the market open. The results come a day after Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) announced an additional $5.7 billion writedown for the fourth quarter, bringing its losses on mortgage-related securities to $9.4 billion.

A slew of economic releases are due, including the government's final reading on third-quarter gross domestic product at 8:30 a.m. ET. A report on leading economic indicators comes after the market open, as does the Philadelphia Fed index, a regional manufacturing survey.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/20/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2007122004


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## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Any takers on the US unemployment numbers ?


I'll stick my hand up for 332K .


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## Real1ty

*Re: DOW Analysis*



> Bear Stearns Posts Loss After Subprime Writedowns (Update1)
> 
> By Yalman Onaran
> 
> Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Bear Stearns Cos., the second- biggest underwriter of U.S. mortgage bonds, reported its first loss as a public company after writedowns for subprime-related investments and a drop in fixed-income trading revenue.
> 
> The fourth-quarter loss of $854 million, or $6.91 a share, in the three months ended Nov. 30 compared with net income of $563 million, or $4, a year earlier, the New York-based firm said today in a statement. The loss was almost four times wider than the average estimate of $1.82 a share from 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
> 
> Bear Stearns, led by Chief Executive Officer James ``Jimmy'' Cayne, said it would take a $1.9 billion writedown on subprime mortgages, more than the $1.2 billion the firm forecast last month. While the cost was smaller than at Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch & Co., Bear Stearns slumped 44 percent this year in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, more than its New York-based rivals as the firm derives about half its revenue from fixed income.
> 
> ``Their problem is they're not as diversified,'' said Tom Jalics, an analyst at National City Bank in Cleveland, who helps manage $34 billion, including Bear Stearns shares. ``They don't have a big overseas presence, big investment banking or equities presence. They're kind of a bond shop.''
> 
> Bear Stearns, which first sold shares to the public in 1985, helped trigger this year's crash in the market for home loans to people with poor credit after two of its hedge funds collapsed in July. About 30 percent of the firm's fixed-income revenue comes from mortgages and related securities, according to estimates from Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Brad Hintz.
> 
> Revenue Wiped Out
> 
> The firm doesn't provide a breakdown for mortgage-related revenue.
> 
> The fourth-quarter writedown wiped out the firm's revenue in debt sales and trading. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the No. 1 underwriter of mortgage-backed bonds this year, reported $860 million of fixed-income revenue in the fourth quarter. Half of Lehman's 2007 revenue came from outside the U.S. That ratio has been lower than 20 percent for Bear Stearns.
> 
> Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the largest securities firm by market value, reported record fourth-quarter earnings of $3.22 billion. Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest, reported a loss of $3.56 billion yesterday, its first since going public in 1986. Merrill Lynch & Co., the third-largest, publishes results next month. All the firms are based in New York.
> 
> Waiting for Recession
> 
> Bear Stearns, the fifth-largest securities firm, said fourth-quarter revenue from equity sales and trading at dropped 11 percent to $384 million. Investment-banking fees fell 44 percent to $205 million. Clearing, which includes providing brokerage services for hedge funds, advanced 2 percent to $276 million.
> 
> Bear Stearns advised on $47 billion of takeovers in the quarter, triple the amount a year earlier, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The firm underwrote $7.3 billion of U.S. bonds, 17 percent less than last year. It managed $1.18 billion of equity offerings, a 28 percent decrease.
> 
> Bond shops like Bear Stearns would benefit from a possible a U.S. recession next year, Sanford Bernstein's Hintz said. During a recession, traditional investment banking activities such as mergers slow down to a halt, while interest rate cuts by central banks boost the price of bonds.
> 
> Succession
> 
> Because Bear Stearns relies less on investment banking and more on fixed income trading, it could benefit from an economic contraction, Hintz said.
> 
> Bear Stearns closed the two hedge funds that blew up and Cayne ousted his co-president, Warren Spector, whom investors considered the heir-apparent. The share price has suffered in part because there's no clear succession plan for the 73-year- old Cayne, said National City's Jalics.
> 
> ``They've got a myriad of problems,'' Jalics said. ``On the asset management side, they've got reputational risk issues because of the funds that blew up. They're a bond shop so they have mortgage-related concerns. And all the negative stories about leadership, that's probably not a positive.''
> 
> Well there is the first piece of tonights puzzle.




Sorry ithatheekret, i can't pick if a stock will go up or down atm, would have no chance with unemployment numbers


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## chops_a_must

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Well the futures like it. They must be sado-masochists over there.


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## dhukka

*Re: DOW Analysis*



ithatheekret said:


> Any takers on the US unemployment numbers ?
> 
> 
> I'll stick my hand up for 332K .




346k that 4 week moving average is ticking up


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## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

yep .

There's triple and quadruple witching across some of the bourses I think too .


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Both bad and good news are eyed in early trading this morning with good news including the report earlier this morning that Bear Stearns has upgraded the financial sector from underweight to overweight. Wells Fargo stocks are up after their earnings report and so is Sun Microsystem stock. However, AMBAC has taken a $3.5 bln hit and stocks have dropped 15%. Intel stocks dropped after the NY close yesterday on a miss in EPS, with its stock down 15% as well. JP Morgan stock is also lower after their earnings report. Net-net however, the bears are in control with DJIA futures posting close to triple digit losses this morning which remains bearish for USD/JPY and JPY crosses. 

Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Dow... with tonight so far... and with the time routine projections (in pretty pink) in the bottom window....  
Cheers
...........Kauri


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## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

What's that blue rectangle ?      ........ the escape hatch


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*



ithatheekret said:


> What's that blue rectangle ? ........ the escape hatch



 the hole in the ozone layer... otherwise known as Miners auto wave target calc price/time routine... or for short.. Miners auto wave target calc price/time routine  

 Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Yeti

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Ithatheekret first mentioned a head-and-shoulders earlier in this thread. Looks like the pattern was confirmed when the DOW went below 12700 and the target now would be 11200-ish


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

I wonder if it was/is just a short covering rally coming into the U.S long weekend... 
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

and vindicator suggests a turn may be around the corner..so stop now trailed at each prev bars high...


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## wayneL

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Kauri said:


> and vindicator suggests a turn may be around the corner..so stop now trailed at each prev bars high...



Turning into a nice trade m8

Breaking yesterdays LOD now. (SP is anyway)


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Turning into a nice trade m8
> 
> Breaking yesterdays LOD now. (SP is anyway)



I wonder if this has anything to do wid it??
*rumors* of a large multi-billion write-down by a French bank 
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

over and out... that should keep the wolves (or bears  ) from the door for another week.
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

options + futures expiries... long weekend short-covering... = volatility...

Bush speaks and only gives $100 Bln, and the market shows it enthusiam

Cheers
.........Kauri


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## dhukka

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Have the PPT got their screens upside down?


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Have the PPT got their screens upside down?




 They all thought Bush was handing out 150Bln and reckoned it was safe to take a sickie and make it a 4 day long weekend. They have managed to round them up and they're back on the job now...
 Apparently the PKO were on the job on the Nikkei today as well..
Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

vindicator says down again.. but i"ll give this one a miss.. bedtime... :goodnight  
Cheers
..........Kauri


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## noirua

*Re: DOW Analysis*

DOW 30 futures point to a start 525.00 points down at 11,581.00

"Wall Street set to plunge":  http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/22/markets/stockswatch/index.htm


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## Gundini

*Re: DOW Analysis*

This market is struggling to hold the 12000 mark. Surely it goes to 11000 from here....

Not tonight, but in the next few weeks...fortnights...

Anyone disagree?


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## wayneL

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Gundini said:


> This market is struggling to hold the 12000 mark. Surely it goes to 11000 from here....
> 
> Not tonight, but in the next few weeks...fortnights...
> 
> Anyone disagree?




I suspect the PPT is now active in this market. Now it gets interesting, and a bit dicey to trade. Unmanipulated, the Dow has 7000 written all over it, but what actually happens is another matter.

I would love to be a fly on the wall in the GS dealing room (the putative broker for the PPT).


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## Gundini

*Re: DOW Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I suspect the PPT is now active in this market. Now it gets interesting, and a bit dicey to trade. Unmanipulated, the Dow has 7000 written all over it, but what actually happens is another matter.
> 
> I would love to be a fly on the wall in the GS dealing room (the putative broker for the PPT).




Ok, now I see... 7000 baffled me at first, but I understand what troubles lie ahead....


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## Kimosabi

*Re: DOW Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I suspect the PPT is now active in this market. Now it gets interesting, and a bit dicey to trade. Unmanipulated, the Dow has 7000 written all over it, but what actually happens is another matter.
> 
> I would love to be a fly on the wall in the GS dealing room (the putative broker for the PPT).



Which when adjusted for inflation is really about 3500.

The Dow really sucks when you see the Dow vs Gold charts...


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## Gundini

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Will you call a Bear market WayneL ?

In the DOW that is, and if you do, what timeframe would you estimate?

Don't mean to be nosey, but respect your thoughts...


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## wayneL

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Gundini said:


> Ok, now I see... 7000 baffled me at first, but I understand what troubles lie ahead....




Not so much a technical view, just fair recessionary value with risk premium properly priced in.


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## wayneL

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Gundini said:


> Will you call a Bear market WayneL ?
> 
> In the DOW that is, and if you do, what timeframe would you estimate?
> 
> Don't mean to be nosey, but respect your thoughts...



Sorry didn't see this post before.

I'm calling a bear market in the real economy in the US and UK, but not yet in Oz.

As far as the stock market is concerned, I'll wait to see a lower high befoer calling it. I know we have a lower high already, but I want to see one on a larger degree. I will go as far as to say that the bear has given this bull a whopping so far... there's blood pouring from his nose, eyes closed and he's staggering like a drunk, but knock out punch not yet delivered.

And the bull has powerful friends while the bear is on his own.

Still, I would be bloody surprised not to see the bull unconscious on the deck sometime soon.


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I suspect the PPT is now active in this market. Now it gets interesting, and a bit dicey to trade. Unmanipulated, the Dow has 7000 written all over it, but what actually happens is another matter.
> 
> I would love to be a fly on the wall in the GS dealing room (the putative broker for the PPT).





It's possible that NY regulators have scheduled a meeting between banks and bond insurers to help keep the latter solvent and thus avoid further financial fallout for the both groups. Of course banks have their own minor problems to negotiate... Perhaps the regulators should have called up some sovereign wealth funds instead. 
 Also..very large switching was seen out of bonds and into stocks...  helped by Bear Stearns earlier putting large cap Bank stocks to overweight..
Cheers
..........Kauri


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## TheAbyss

*Re: DOW Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I suspect the PPT is now active in this market. Now it gets interesting, and a bit dicey to trade. Unmanipulated, the Dow has 7000 written all over it, but what actually happens is another matter.
> 
> I would love to be a fly on the wall in the GS dealing room (the putative broker for the PPT).




Wow. Great call Wayne. I expected to be greeted with a + 400 pt fall in the dow last night.

Salvation, for now at least. The US banks are all up double digits from their lows this morning in the US

1. Banks, New York Regulator Meet on Bond Insurer Rescue
2. Dow bounced off 12070 3 times last night 3rd time was a sprinboard worth > 500 pts due to the bond rescue

Were the volumes (2.7 bunits) enough to to stave off greater falls in the short term in your view Wayne? 

Need to see at least another 600 - 800 pts lift yet to be in a safer place however it is a great revival from the  -300 points earlier. Short covering was joined by buying today in the US so have we seen a bottom? The bonds have reversed also.

Where to from here?


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## Sean K

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Did this really turn around about 400 points today?

PPT's doing a good job then......


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## TheAbyss

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Watching CNBC atm and they are telling it with delight. JP Morgan 14% swing today, Bank of Am 9% Freddie Mac + 14% list goes on.


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## TheAbyss

*Re: DOW Analysis*



kennas said:


> Did this really turn around about 400 points today?
> 
> PPT's doing a good job then......




632 pt swing at close. Dow up 294. $15 B bailout to the bond insurers.

I can see the headlines in 48 hours from now, "15 billion not enough, dow plunges on recession fears. Rally over?"


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## korrupt_1

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Crazy night!!:taz:

From our close last night

rallied 150pts
tanked 400pts
rallied 650pts!!!!!!!!

Still don't believe my eyes!:bs:


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## TheAbyss

*Re: DOW Analysis*



TheAbyss said:


> Wow. Great call Wayne. I expected to be greeted with a + 400 pt fall in the dow last night.
> 
> Salvation, for now at least. The US banks are all up double digits from their lows this morning in the US
> 
> 1. Banks, New York Regulator Meet on Bond Insurer Rescue
> 2. Dow bounced off 12070 3 times last night 3rd time was a sprinboard worth > 500 pts due to the bond rescue
> 
> Were the volumes (2.7 bunits) enough to to stave off greater falls in the short term in your view Wayne?
> 
> Need to see at least another 600 - 800 pts lift yet to be in a safer place however it is a great revival from the  -300 points earlier. Short covering was joined by buying today in the US so have we seen a bottom? The bonds have reversed also.
> 
> Where to from here?





Sorry edit to pt 2, Dow bounced off 11700 not 12070.


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## explod

*Re: DOW Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Crazy night!!:taz:
> 
> From our close last night
> 
> rallied 150pts
> tanked 400pts
> rallied 650pts!!!!!!!!
> 
> Still don't believe my eyes!:bs:




This amount of volatility may be the prelude to the big tank.  As it gets going fear will take it straight through long term support of 10,000 to an overshoot of 7,500 where it may well stay for many years due to thier massive debt and virtually no onshore GDP.    

But I only say maybe.


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## Gundini

*Re: DOW Analysis*



TheAbyss said:


> 632 pt swing at close. Dow up 294. $15 B bailout to the bond insurers.
> 
> I can see the headlines in 48 hours from now, "15 billion not enough, dow plunges on recession fears. Rally over?"




I am baffled....

How come all is suddenly back on track in the States...

How do you rally 600 points in 3 hours?

How many people lost on shorts?

The Bull does have powerful friends doesn't he...


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

After this morning's jobless claims report (very strong at 301k) one has to believe that Bernanke has his head firmly planted between his legs on discovering the news that the vicious death spiral trade on Monday was caused by a rogue equity futures trader at SocGen - sacre plurry bleu. The entire situation this week along with the upcoming data into next week (the FOMC will see next Friday's payroll report) and the unknown extent of equity index recoveries will determine how much they will cut - *if at all.
*    The death spiral trade which has been under way *for over 4 weeks* has clearly found a bottom - and interestingly it was at the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 2002-2007 on the monthly charts for both Nasdaq indices as well as the S&P (and almost the Dow). The recovery trade now targets the scene of the crime (the breakdown) of the broken triple bottom on the weeklies of the S&P - 1380. For today the first support area will be the overnight low at 1333.50, with a better line in the sand being 1325. Below that the market is in trouble if it can penetrate 1318 and especially 1311.  There is value up through about 1361, but above that it drops off fairly quickly due to rouge tractors trundling downhill with Japanese housewives clutching the wheel aiming squarely for the Hills hoist,,, Mon Dieu..
Toot sweet
.............Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Dow Jones is reporting that a tentative deal on a stimulus package has been reached..... Tokyo traders may be short following selling last night on rumors that the proposed monoline bond insurance bailout was unlikely to succeed.

Struggling to think
.............Kauri   :alcohol:


----------



## BIG BWACULL

*Re: DOW Analysis*

All i have to say is :bier::drink::alcohol:
Just finished a twenty hour stint doin the POLICE (Sting and that) gig at Telstra Stadium (Now ANZ Stadium) and Oh sorry :topic  :bekloppt:
CHEERS


----------



## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

The market is still speculating whether the Fed knew of the Soc Gen losses and the reason behind the equity market sell-off before it cut rates on Tuesday. This has dampened rate cut expectations, sending US ten-yr bond yields higher above 3.62% this morning. Some have argued that the Fed would have cut rates anyway. Some  also argue that there is no reason for another 50 bp to follow next week, particularly with a stimulus package now on the horizon. 
      Traders are also noting that Fitch has downgraded bond insurer SCA and its subsidiaries, raising concerns over the bond insurer sector again and adding to the retreat in the stock market, untill it rises again..

50/50
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

grabbed some shorts on the 5min
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Kauri said:


> grabbed some shorts on the 5min
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




and stop to a tad better thanB/E.... time for some vino now...
Cheers
...........Kauri
P.S good old quant fund rumours...


----------



## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Kauri said:


> and stop to a tad better thanB/E.... time for some vino now...
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri
> P.S good old quant fund rumours...




and out at B/E... too wild for me tonight...
incidentally... "they" *hint* a european bank having funding issues..
a) it is Belgian/Dutch 
b) it is down 10% odd
c) it is... 
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Stop Fortis Ing about   :


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Here we go Kauri 1300 breach 1290 comin' up, get ready to see 8's


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Got this funny feeling it won't be a good bank day tomorrow .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Got half a bag of 1228's , 1 x 12279 


I wish I had brakes like that on the tractor .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

big volume pushing 12320 back , (310 was f/v )


----------



## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*



ithatheekret said:


> big volume pushing 12320 back , (310 was f/v )




The idea was right.. the direction was right.. just the timing a tad astray...   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*



ithatheekret said:


> Got this funny feeling it won't be a good bank day tomorrow .




Very tired then meant next week , get to wave the flag Monday too .


----------



## Kimosabi

*Re: DOW Analysis*



ithatheekret said:


> Very tired then meant next week , get to wave the flag Monday too .



I think it's going to be real ugly next week.

Two Bond Insurers have "guaranteed buyers against losses on more than $1 trillion of bonds"

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/24/business/24bonds.html

The great credit purge continues...


----------



## Miner

*Re: DOW Analysis*



ithatheekret said:


> Very tired then meant next week , get to wave the flag Monday too .




Dow has shed again. Relax as market will be closed on Monday.
So on Tuesday it will be reflecting on Monday DOW correction.
Regards


----------



## Whiskers

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Kimosabi said:


> I think it's going to be real ugly next week.
> 
> Two Bond Insurers have "guaranteed buyers against losses on more than $1 trillion of bonds"
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/24/business/24bonds.html
> 
> The great credit purge continues...




I'm not too concerned Kimosabi. 

They will sort out an arrangement pretty quickly because it is in the banks best interests to avoid credit rating downgrades that would trigger the situation spiralling out of control. 



> A chief goal of any rescue would be to help the companies regain or keep triple-A credit ratings, which are seen as vital to their business.


----------



## Kimosabi

*Re: DOW Analysis*

This is propaganda and Bullsh1t...



Whiskers said:


> A chief goal of any rescue would be to help the companies regain or keep triple-A credit ratings, which are seen as vital to their business.




Where are they going to get the money from?

The banks are too scared to lend to each other, why would they fork out $1 Trillion dollars to Bond Insurers who are sitting on massive losses?

America isn't Zimbabwe yet, $1 Trillion is still a LOT of Money...


----------



## Whiskers

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Kimosabi said:


> This is propaganda and Bullsh1t...
> 
> 
> 
> Where are they going to get the money from?
> 
> The banks are too scared to lend to each other, why would they fork out $1 Trillion dollars to Bond Insurers who are sitting on massive losses?
> 
> America isn't Zimbabwe yet, $1 Trillion is still a LOT of Money...




I think it is a case of averting pending losses and mitigating future losses. The alternative to not helping support them is a chain reaction of credit rating down-grades limiting future lending and effectively devaluing their stock and... well who knows where it might end. It is critical to the banks present standing to save the bond insurers.

It's a case of damned if they do and double damned if they don't. Sort of like an unholy alliance. I guess it's sort of natural justice coming back to bite those at or near the cause of the trouble.

The whole thing is dependant on getting those banks that are not too badly affected yet to understand that if they don't chip in the 'cancer' will get them pretty soon too.

I would be surprised if there isn't an announcement before the market on monday.


----------



## MR.

*Re: DOW Analysis*

As much as I have read over the past days, I am no wiser.
Lets just flip a coin. 

History
The DOW between approx 1930 and 1953 was flat line. The same between approx 1965 and 1982. 
On the 19th October 1987 the DOW dropped 22.6% from 2246 down to 1738. A year earlier the Dow was about 1800. So the DOW retraced back one year. This 22% fall was after slowly dropping in the week/s prior similar to now. 

But the DOW is already back to where it was one year ago and is approx 12% up over 2 years.    

The DOW (or the US) this time around “still” has not dropped any more than a few percent in a day. Will they panick at sometime in the near future? .... The world is watching! .....  I don't know the stats but arn't people in more debt than ever? Isn't Bush's hand out to low and medium incomes (in 6 months) going to just go towards debt?


----------



## wayneL

*Re: DOW Analysis*



MR. said:


> History
> The DOW between approx 1930 and 1953 was flat line. The same between approx 1965 and 1982.





Better take another look.


----------



## MR.

*Re: DOW Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Better take another look.




"Flat line" as I am referring, the market was approx at the same value at these dates.


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Transports green again today , DJIA plunged , they're still shaking I'd say .......

It did recover around 200 points rather quickly , short squeeze ???

DJT below .


----------



## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

More bad news is emerging in after-hours stock trading with *Google stocks down over 8% after the close* after the company announced earnings, missing their profit and sales estimates. The news will weigh on tech stocks in Asia. This comes in the wake of the *ratings warning for MBIA*. Also getting a second look this afternoon are comments earlier today from the FDIC about the looming *"hundreds of thousands" of foreclosures* and that $600 bln of *"prime*" borrowers, not just subprime, have taken mortgages *due to be reset* and pressuring higher payments.


----------



## alankew

*Re: DOW Analysis*

This might help steady the fort a bit http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSWNAS894220080201
and this will certainly add some interest here on Monday http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSL0143512520080201


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Transports are green again .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

DRYS US listed drybulk mover tripled its profits , up 5% pre market .

Let's see transports green again , need some bottoming moves and a few exits in the financials of the 500 .


----------



## josjes

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Do you have historical pattern or proof for past bear markets that confirms the theory that a sign of bear market is ending is a downside non-confirmation between Dow and Trannies ? i.e. Dow falls to lower low, but Trannies fail to confirm with lower lows. If this is a sign for a bear market reversal and bull market signal then perhaps it will make things a lot easier.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

U of Mich Sentiment Down to 69.6


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*



josjes said:


> Do you have historical pattern or proof for past bear markets that confirms the theory that a sign of bear market is ending is a downside non-confirmation between Dow and Trannies ? i.e. Dow falls to lower low, but Trannies fail to confirm with lower lows. If this is a sign for a bear market reversal and bull market signal then perhaps it will make things a lot easier.




I don't care for theories , but twenty odd years of practical seems to be the go , transport leads the way . It's only just started to come back , but , more importantly it shows that transport has managed to wear $100 oil .
There's always growth even when there's zero growth . 

It goes up , it goes down , the herd get's washed of cash , some get to keep it .

What did Nick say ? ........ " rinse and spin , now hung out to ....... "

The indexes are due some reratings too , bit of shuffling .


----------



## Kauri

*Re: DOW Analysis*

I'm outa here.. time for bed... the Mich sentiment index slumps to a 16 year low.. 69.6 against 77 expected... and the US rallys..    maybe a bout of plauge and pestilence will restore full confidence in their economy???   Sheeeeesh
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

I can only see the Nadaq Trans index , Nas. Insurance Index and the Nas. Telecom Index fluttering a bit . The NYSE Health index moving up .... flight to safety in security stocks again .

Night but .......


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Kauri said:


> I'm outa here.. time for bed... the Mich sentiment index slumps to a 16 year low.. 69.6 against 77 expected... and the US rallys..    maybe a bout of plauge and pestilence will restore full confidence in their economy???   Sheeeeesh
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Looks like a partial gap fill and a failure at the swing lows to me.

I think people are wary of shorting into a forced and stacked market, as I alluded to a few weeks back. You just don't know if the fed is buying the crap out of everything at the moment.

A lot of people are still smarting from Ben's previous behaviour at the teddy bear picnic.

What traders need is an indication that failing companies wont be handed money. Until that happens, in a lot of ways, it's too dangerous being short in the US.

Got no idea why anyone would be buying anything out there atm, apart from diamonds in the rough. It's akin to sleeping with a ***** without protection IMO.


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

I think they should let the overstretched fail and bail out the bond insurers .

They are the markets imperative to continuance .


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: DOW Analysis*



ithatheekret said:


> I think they should let the overstretched fail and bail out the bond insurers .
> 
> They are the markets imperative to continuance .



The funny thing is, it appears the failures have been the ones trying to bail out the bond insurers. I guess birds of a feather and all that, but **** attracts flies!

I think I have worked out the CDO and sub prime profit and business formula:






Personally, I think Citigroup and the like could do well in the underpants trade. After all, most of the management were complete cocks and arseholes, so they should at least know what is needed.


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Crack me up Chops .

keyboard get's a Stella wash


----------



## Trader Paul

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Hi folks,

DOW ..... looking at the time cycles ahead, we can expect more negativity
in July, September and October 2008, in particular ... 

         21-25072008 ..... 2 significant and negative cycles here

         11-12092008 ..... 3 significant and negative cycles here

         06-08102008 ..... 4 time cycles = volatile trading ???

         20-24102008 ..... significant and negative cycle expected        

             27102008 ..... aggressive and positive cycle in play

happy days

  paul



=====


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: DOW Analysis*

While looking for the length of recovery time from the 1987 market decline, this longer time frame view of activity has shown me that if (that two letter word again) the worst comes out of this present scenario then there will be some solid rebounds during the process.Back on upward trend in months or years is now in play soooo remembering that most people are optimistic and it is an Olympics year with the Chinese hosting then maybe, just maybe, the storm clouds will clear and a slow recovery begin to take place.

If i remember i`ll check this post later in the year to see what has eventuated.


----------



## josjes

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Long Legged Doji appeared in Dow Jones last night. 
Crash mode on from tonight and for the next few weeks ?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

http://www.candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/12_221_/candlestick.asp


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: DOW Analysis*



josjes said:


> Long Legged Doji appeared in Dow Jones last night.
> Crash mode on from tonight and for the next few weeks ?
> 
> http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
> 
> http://www.candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/12_221_/candlestick.asp




No important Doji on the intraday overnight?  I would say a shooting star would be more of a worry.  

Chart?


----------



## josjes

*Re: DOW Analysis*

For chart click on the link. 
The last candle look like a long-legged doji to me, big indecision time, bull and bear battle it out, and with the overbought condition precedeing, that's why I forward a case of a downward move to support of 11700 before bounceing up nicely again the week of the Fed Reserve meeting 30 April.


----------



## Kelpie

*Re: DOW Analysis*

For a morning start to indicate a uptrend, I thought it had to have a downtrend just before it?


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: DOW Analysis*



josjes said:


> For chart click on the link.
> The last candle look like a long-legged doji to me, big indecision time, bull and bear battle it out, and with the overbought condition precedeing, that's why I forward a case of a downward move to support of 11700 before bounceing up nicely again the week of the Fed Reserve meeting 30 April.




Sorry, I assumed that stockcharts link was to the candlestick explanations (same as the link below).  My bad.  

Trouble with this is that the doji on the daily comes after a few flat days.  However, all of which show indecision, pointing for me, to a downturn.  Bulls are out once more also.  Signs look ominous.  I have closed out most of my positions other than in the commodities as of today.  

Tonight will be interesting.


----------



## happyjack

*Re: DOW Analysis*

dow is crashing and burning,I will try again to post charts


----------



## happyjack

*Re: DOW Analysis*

along with nasdaq

happyjack


----------



## wayneL

*Re: DOW Analysis*

LOL

Don't underestimate the delusional US investor... it could still end of green by the end of the cash session.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: DOW Analysis*



wayneL said:


> LOL
> 
> Don't underestimate the delusional US investor... it could still end of green by the end of the cash session.




BTW not trying to be rude, have just seen these sort of down spikes go green all too often when the US is collectively in faeryland.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: DOW Analysis*



wayneL said:


> BTW not trying to be rude, have just seen these sort of down spikes go green all too often when the US is collectively in faeryland.




Yes, what happens pre market mostly has little to do with the real market as those yanks like to prove logic wrong. I was hoping it would go up again and touch my short order so I can top up my 'investment grade' short position on the Dow.
12750 ish is proving to be a formidable resistance point with historical precedents.  

Do you even think that they have factored in even a slight recession - still only 1500 odd off the record high - plenty of room for downside reality?


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: DOW Analysis*

It is pretty obvious the DOW has been in a channel for right on 2 months. I`m looking for a breach of the channel support line soon to shake out the comfortable and/or weak bulls sitting on some nice profits since the bounce. Lower price action than the support levels I have marked would be most welcome.

Thankyou for your cooperation.  

Signed, perma-bear.


----------



## seasprite

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> It is pretty obvious the DOW has been in a channel for right on 2 months. I`m looking for a breach of the channel support line soon to shake out the comfortable and/or weak bulls sitting on some nice profits since the bounce. Lower price action than the support levels I have marked would be most welcome.
> 
> Thankyou for your cooperation.
> 
> Signed, perma-bear.




you could well be right considering the futures are red on highish volumes however , I suspect a good day on the DOW tomorrow and hope my calculation is correct otherwise it is back to the drawing board for me.


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: DOW Analysis*



seasprite said:


> you could well be right considering the futures are red on highish volumes however , I suspect a good day on the DOW tomorrow and hope my calculation is correct otherwise it is back to the drawing board for me.




And you were right seasprite. The following two sessions saw the trend line tipped to perfection (I suppose there are a few trading it ) and your suspected "good day" ensued.

To be honest, I don`t recognise any topping formation yet.


----------



## seasprite

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> To be honest, I don`t recognise any topping formation yet.




I find it hard to believe this is the start of a downleg at the moment , seems to be more of a tree shaking exercise to shake the dead wood out, the daily RSI for the SP500 is still hovering around 60 , and I was of the opinion SP 925 needed to be tested again , so I suspect DJIA tomorrow may start with a selloff and end the day positive after the last two days activities. 

As wayneL says "Don't underestimate the delusional US investor"


----------



## seasprite

*Re: DOW Analysis*



seasprite said:


> so I suspect DJIA tomorrow may start with a selloff and end the day positive after the last two days activities.




Not quite made it , the last 100 million of 300 million volume came in too late towards the last hour of trade , and the positive trend was way less than expected.


----------



## jackson8

*Re: DOW Analysis*

hi all

just realised holiday for memorial day in usa. tonight so no trading

thought i would mention for those interested


----------



## metric

*Re: DOW Analysis*

from the fox business show. http://www.foxbusiness.com/search-results/m/22293846/is-the-rally-over.htm

the vid at the link above shows shaffer questioning the freedom of the market...on fox!!! lol



> With 2 minutes 30 seconds remaining in the video, Dan Shaffer, President of Shaffer Asset Management, gives shocking evidence of direct government intervention in the stock market:




i doubt it was government though....



> “Something strange happened during the last 7 or 8 weeks. Doreen you probably can concur on this -- there was a power underneath the market that kept holding it up and trading the futures. I watch the futures every day and every tick, and a tremendous amount of volume came in a several points during the last few weeks, when the market was just about ready to break, and it shot right up again. Usually toward the end of the day – it happened a week ago Friday, at 7 minutes to 4 o’clock, almost 100,000 S&P futures contracts were traded, and then in the last 5 minutes, up to 4 o’clock, another 100,000 contracts were traded, and lifted the Dow from being down 18 to up over 44 or 50 points in 7 minutes. That is 10 to 20 billion dollars to be able to move the market in such a way. Who has that kind of money to move this market?






> On top of that, the market has rallied up during the stress test uncertainty and moved the bank stocks up, and the bank stocks issued secondaries – they issues stock – they raised capital into this rally. It was perfect text book setup of controlling the markets – now that the stock has been issued…” [interrupted by Richard Suttmeier].


----------



## seasprite

*Re: DOW Analysis*



metric said:


> “ I watch the futures every day and every tick, and a tremendous amount of volume came in a several points during the last few weeks, when the market was just about ready to break, and it shot right up again. Usually toward the end of the day – it happened a week ago Friday, at 7 minutes to 4 o’clock, almost 100,000 S&P futures contracts were traded, and then in the last 5 minutes, up to 4 o’clock, another 100,000 contracts were traded, and lifted the Dow from being down 18 to up over 44 or 50 points in 7 minutes. That is 10 to 20 billion dollars to be able to move the market in such a way. Who has that kind of money to move this market?.




Noticed this also , especially on today's close in the last half hour , futures go ballistic . Personally expecting at least +50 tomorrow. Futures are currently +34 , but it's getting harder to pick .


----------



## Sean K

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Could this be a H&S which has broken up, previous resistance tested, and broken up again? That's a heck of a target if it's true.


----------



## seasprite

*Re: DOW Analysis*



kennas said:


> Could this be a H&S which has broken up, previous resistance tested, and broken up again? That's a heck of a target if it's true.




seems to be the case , and the next catalyst they are expecting is the early repayment of TARP.


----------



## moXJO

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Anyone trading the dow tonight?


----------



## mitch87

*Re: DOW Analysis*

so much pressure on the dow this week, wonder how long it can hold this level before it really does test the 8k level


----------



## seasprite

*Re: DOW Analysis*



mitch87 said:


> so much pressure on the dow this week, wonder how long it can hold this level before it really does test the 8k level




Good volumes returning today for such a small drop on the dow , one thing I watch is DJT has been increasing over the last couple of days after it's big sell off . Last time this happened we had triple digit gains.


----------



## JnrTrader

*Re: DOW Analysis*

highly volatile times, its interesting to watch some of the videos on yahoo finance with analysts in the USA and what they think will happen next.Many are predicting the worst is yet to be seen and some are saying dow 10k


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: DOW Analysis*

perhaps you'd like to ignore the fundamental picture which invariably lags price movement and talk some tech details such as how the dow30 severely lagged the spx500 this week, which, you'll find by looking at a comparison chart (ignoring the triple witching effect)......in fact,the lower the cap the higher the divergence (as seen on a common-all bigcharts.com).....maybe an attempt to rotate......for mine (as i trade the spx) there is a strong case that a larger top is already set in-place in both major indecies.....not withstanding you need to discuss liquidity flow and how the ftse has consistantly led the way on downturns and has consistantly made lower highs (see a comparison on a common-all yahoo.com chart) preceding the 30 or 500 downturns......

also, consider that the emerging markets (eem) has been rocketing ahead of the rest in a very bullish manner but the russell 2k (rut) has severely failed and lagged at the recent high and you might see the picture differently....you may consider there is appropriate speculation order, by that, i mean, that the smaller the cap the more speculative the input of liquidity and the higher the risk taken to gain value, upside...however, speculation is led by smart money and lagged by weak money......

consider puting all those into correct context and that may assist you in making analytical calls......

what, i suggest, you really need to do is simply follow level of supply and demand....well, i am speaking from my own pov....

the fundamental background does play an important role, i agree, however, when a pov is invoked then an instant distort is invoked too, afterall, know one can precisely plot the weight on a price movement to be as resultant or to precede that prioce movement.......in other words, the further you get away from what is going on inside the price movement then the wider the distortion of that analysis......how am to know that what is effective in the TARP is going to effect what happens in a price chart, in the next half hour......not much, probably

don't forget that the 30 and 500 are singular summations and not always inline with actual present, or future, fundamental valuation.....in fact, you should decide what the dow is worth on a gold standard pov v. a fiat currency pov.....quite different.....


anyways, as i said, my current bias is down(ward) 

this is an opinion


http://i289.photobucket.com/albums/ll202/julianjoules/chart/percentdec500v30.jpg

http://i289.photobucket.com/albums/ll202/julianjoules/chart/z.png


----------



## Tradesurfer

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Saw the post earlier about the H/S reversal pttrn. 

I had my notes on the chart of the Diamonds Symbol DIA- the etf that tracks the dow but essentially mimicks the $INDU chart.

Looking at the weekly, I accounted for more data and the question is whether this is going to retrace to the 7500 level which would be next major support and potential left shoulder (hanging upside down) or if easer right side of the pattern. Next support would be the march low. Beyond that......

On a daily chart to see the same thing you'd need to expand the date range or simply use a weekly chart instead.

The range we've been in has developed some pretty good resistance but I'll be keeping and eye out on this one.

Notice that we started this with a H/S top (see attached)

Should be interesting but following price is key rather than predict.

Cheers

Derek


----------



## nomore4s

*Re: DOW Analysis*

H&S pattern on the weekly really starting to take shape now, price probably needs to hold 7500 to stay valid before breaking 9000 to 'activate' it.


----------



## Tradesurfer

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Forgot about this thread. Guess the head and shoulders or reverse head and shoulders came through- nice thing now is the old resistance of the neckline is now a good support area for traders


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: DOW Analysis*

The direct reaction to unemployment on the DOW Index is evident with the Google Unemployment Index. The GUI has the peak of unemployment related queries in March and the trend is down. The Index often precedes the DOW as evident in leading peaks and troughs. A cross could be a strong bullish sign.


----------



## MACCA350

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> The direct reaction to unemployment on the DOW Index is evident with the Google Unemployment Index. The GUI has the peak of unemployment related queries in March and the trend is down. The Index often precedes the DOW as evident in leading peaks and troughs. A cross could be a strong bullish sign.



That's a compelling graph

cheers


----------



## Porper

*Re: DOW Analysis*

A few on here will recognise this chart from a few weeks ago but nothing has changed.

I have been playing around with some time projections.

Interestingly the 13th November is 50% of the time taken from the October 2007 high to the March low this year.

Exactly the same date is arrived at by measuring the time taken for wave-1 or-A and projecting it from the wave-2 or-B low.

We also have confluence around this date using other time analysis techniques.

With the current strength in the DOW I would be looking for a downturn.

We'll see what happens. 
__________________


----------



## metric

*Re: DOW Analysis*

i hope this is the correct place to post this......as kennas gets his jollies giving me an infraction for not getting it perfect......its not the infraction that worries me...its kennas getting some jollies....lol

morning kennas..

here goes.

go to link and look at the chart. i cant copy the graph as the site doesnt allow it. it is a damning chart of market manipulation.



> I don’t know if any characteristic of this massive 6 month rally has been more apparent than the huge futures run-ups we’ve seen at random points during the trading day. Without news, the S&P 500 futures get gunned on huge volume and surge higher. I’ve seen it at least every other day for 6 months. It tends to occur on low volume days such as the one we’re currently experiencing. As you can see in the chart below, the futures are getting gunned on massive volume without any coinciding volume in SPY. This means an institution is jamming the futures higher knowing that they can drive the market higher on no volume. Effectively, they can take out every asking price with a large enough order and immediately create a 0.25% bump in the market in no time. If you’ve been wondering why we’ve seen huge surges on low volume days and conviction high volume selling on down days this explains much of it.
> 
> I don’t know if there is malfeasance behind this or if the buyer is simply too stupid to input trades at the bid (like most rational investors do as they try to achieve the best low price), but this is certainly an odd phenomenon that I cannot recall occurring so routinely over the course of my career. Who is the mystery institutional buyer that just needs to place their huge block orders with such urgency?




go to link to see charts.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/172609-who-is-the-mystery-buyer


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## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: DOW Analysis*

I don't get it. Surely people aren't only just noticing this?? It happens alot during the globex session, when the market is open, all the time. I seriously doubt thats a buyer too.


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## seasprite

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Porper said:


> A few on here will recognise this chart from a few weeks ago but nothing has changed.
> 
> I have been playing around with some time projections.
> 
> Interestingly the 13th November is 50% of the time taken from the October 2007 high to the March low this year.
> 
> Exactly the same date is arrived at by measuring the time taken for wave-1 or-A and projecting it from the wave-2 or-B low.
> 
> We also have confluence around this date using other time analysis techniques.
> 
> With the current strength in the DOW I would be looking for a downturn.
> 
> We'll see what happens.
> __________________




nice work , I'm picking a -21 today and +88 for tomorrow , cross fingers.


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## Porper

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Forgetting the wave counts for a moment here is some time analysis using techniques taught by Robert Miner.

There is around a 2 week window for a possible reversal, starting today.


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## Edwood

*Re: DOW Analysis*

cheers Porper - out of interest, whats DT showing for the number of days low to high?  (if its not too much hassle can you do the total and the subdivisions in terms of 'major' bumps along the way?)
ta, Ed


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## seasprite

*Re: DOW Analysis*



Edwood said:


> cheers Porper - out of interest, whats DT showing for the number of days low to high?  (if its not too much hassle can you do the total and the subdivisions in terms of 'major' bumps along the way?)
> ta, Ed




I have 218 trading days from last weeks high to march low. Interesting to note support level of 10,084 in 3 days time will be close to the apex value from dec 07 high using 193.75 days in the line calculations .


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## Wysiwyg

*Re: DOW Analysis*

If any faith can be placed in candles, then a reversal has started. 

Yearly trend direction is out of my knowing but if someone could substantiate the beginning of a downtrend or the continuation of the uptrend would make for interesting observation.


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## marketsurfer

*Re: DOW Analysis*

We are flat the DJIA here.  It is extremely tough to call at this time going into the new week.  Awaiting death channel to emerge prior to setting strategy, stay tuned


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## WaveSurfer

*Re: DOW Analysis*

Check this yearly chart of the DOW. I'm not a head and shoulders type of guy myself. But holy bajeezers batman if this one plays out.....

Bets anyone?


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## Uncle Festivus

*Re: DOW Analysis*



metric said:


> i hope this is the correct place to post this......as kennas gets his jollies giving me an infraction for not getting it perfect......its not the infraction that worries me...its kennas getting some jollies....lol
> 
> morning kennas..
> 
> here goes.
> 
> go to link and look at the chart. i cant copy the graph as the site doesnt allow it. it is a damning chart of market manipulation.
> 
> 
> 
> go to link to see charts.
> 
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172609-who-is-the-mystery-buyer




The mystery buyer is no doubt the US Fed, or at least one of it's banking 'affiliates'?

Still going on today by the looks of it - market rises on little more than rhetoric & hope apparently?

October 4 was the make or break day for the Dow, and by extension the  rest of the world perhaps. If the Fed hadn't intervened then who knows  where it would have stopped. As it is, they have given themselves a 1000  point buffer for when the next dose of economic reality arrives. Not  that that will be the 'big one' - when the US realises that they too  will have to embark on an austerity program perhaps worse than some of  the Euro countries are facing it will probably be too late anyway.

Still, trade it as it presents, so looking to have resistance around 11600's & support at 11400 for now, with 'capitulation' support at 10600?


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## stockGURU

*Dow Jones (DJIA) technical analysis*

I searched for a thread on this topic and, noticing there wasn't one, decided to start one myself hoping that it will generate some discussion.

I am attaching a chart of the DJIA from January 20, 2009 (the day Barack Obama took office) to today.

I'm not a TA expert but there are two very clear observations to be made from this chart:

1. For the last three years, the DJIA has been in a fairly consistent uptrend.
2. Volume seems to be decreasing.

I'm not sure what the significance of point #2 might be.

I would be interested in any technical analysis of the Dow Jones from others. Feel free to contribute your own analysis/observations.


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## joea

*Re: Dow Jones (DJIA) technical analysis*

Try "DOW" in advanced search, click icon.
joea


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## professor_frink

*Re: Dow Jones (DJIA) technical analysis*



stockGURU said:


> 2. Volume seems to be decreasing.
> 
> I'm not sure what the significance of point #2 might be.




There is none.

The increased volume went hand in hand with the preceeding bear market. It was never going to stay at that level forever.


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## Porper

This is the Dow Jones monthly chart.

Interesting that the declines between 1966 - 1974 & 2000 - 2008 are very similar both in terms of price and time.

Both expanded flat corrections. Price also breaking higher in an impulsive fashion rfom the most recent low...at least thus far.


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## Porper

The Dow Jones appears to be making a running or expanded flat pattern. The chart is self explanatory. Room for further downiside but very bullish longer term.


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## Boggo

Porper said:


> The Dow Jones appears to be making a running or expanded flat pattern. The chart is self explanatory. Room for further downiside but very bullish longer term.




Isn't that the chart that Nick Radge posted on Facebook on Saturday ?


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## Porper

Boggo said:


> Isn't that the chart that Nick Radge posted on Facebook on Saturday ?




Hi Boggo, yes it is. I know Nick well and was happy for him to put the chart on Facebook.


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## Boggo

Porper said:


> Hi Boggo, yes it is. I know Nick well and was happy for him to put the chart on Facebook.




Cheers Porper, just thought looked similiar from memory.


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## sreeve

Quartlerly-candle chart of the S&P500.

Distinct triple top has formed.

Proceed with caution...






~ Scott


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## CanOz

sreeve said:


> Quartlerly-candle chart of the S&P500.
> 
> Distinct triple top has formed.
> 
> Proceed with caution...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ~ Scott




This is a bit confusing, sould be in the S&P 500 thread and the level is 1500. 

This thread is for DJIA analysis.

On a mobile device, but will check later if has been moved and corrected.

CanOz


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## nysefloortrader

CanOz said:


> This is a bit confusing, sould be in the S&P 500 thread and the level is 1500.
> 
> This thread is for DJIA analysis.
> 
> On a mobile device, but will check later if has been moved and corrected.
> 
> CanOz




I love that chart, but it seems like everyone now at their blog and newsletter is looking at that chart. Hmmmm.


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## Ann

...and now back to the DOW! This is the end of month monthly chart for the DOW.
 There is a long term overhead rising resistance line coming from December 1999 which may cause a retracement as the DOW reaches to touch it. I am wondering if it is already enough for a full retracement or if it will take another month of rises before it touches resistance and then the retracement.


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## Ann

I am not an Elliott Wave officiando, in fact I can rarely see what Elliott Wavers are seeing. This time it is different. I can see a very distinct Elliott Wave  on the Dow. In fact it looks like the perfect textbook example. Let's see what happens. I may need to re-think Elliott Wave patterns.


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## chrislp

Ann said:


> I am not an Elliott Wave officiando, in fact I can rarely see what Elliott Wavers are seeing. This time it is different. I can see a very distinct Elliott Wave  on the Dow. In fact it looks like the perfect textbook example. Let's see what happens. I may need to re-think Elliott Wave patterns.




That's not textbook. You have broken two rules by looking at your labelling.

Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave & wave 4 cannot go below the high of wave 1.


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## Porper

chrislp said:


> That's not textbook. You have broken two rules by looking at your labelling.
> 
> Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave & wave 4 cannot go below the high of wave 1.




Absolutely correct...that wave count is totally incorrect and doesn't resemble Elliott Wave in any way. A triangle in that position has to be corrective, labelled a-b-c-d-e.


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## Ann

chrislp said:


> That's not textbook. You have broken two rules by looking at your labelling.
> 
> Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave & wave 4 cannot go below the high of wave 1.




Hi Chrislp

So very simple to understand! Thank you! None so blind. OK, reopens book 'Elliot Wave Priciple' by Frost and Prechter and looks at it properly this time!

Pg 23 Looks at 'Motive' (Numbered Phase) OK, sees higher highs, higher lows which reaches its pinacle at Wave5. Then I look at the 'Corrective' (Lettered Phase) Wave A falls to slightly below Wave 3 Wave B rises above Wave 3 and Wave C falls to around the same level as Wave 4.

I will redraw my chart with a proper hypothetical Elliott Wave correction (without suggesting it is an Elliott Wave).



Porper said:


> Absolutely correct...that wave count is totally incorrect and doesn't resemble Elliott Wave in any way. A triangle in that position has to be corrective, labelled a-b-c-d-e.




Hi Porper,

Let me work with the 'broad concept' of 1,2,3,4,5,A,B,C as written in the above book before I move on to the subtleties of the rest of the alphabet!


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## Porper

Ann said:


> Hi Porper,
> 
> Let me work with the 'broad concept' of 1,2,3,4,5,A,B,C as written in the above book before I move on to the subtleties of the rest of the alphabet!




Just remember simple is best with the Wave Theory. 5-waves up followed by 3-waves down. Triangles should contain 5-internal swings labelled a-e. Ignore complex corrections as they provide little insight as to what is to come.


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## Ann

chrislp said:


> That's not textbook. You have broken two rules by looking at your labelling.
> 
> Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave & wave 4 cannot go below the high of wave 1.




How is this chart Chrislp? Not suggesting it is an Elliot Wave as it stands, simply asking if it had mirrored what I have drawn now would that satify as being an Elliott Wave pattern?


----------



## Porper

Ann said:


> How is this chart Chrislp? Not suggesting it is an Elliot Wave as it stands, simply asking if it had mirrored what I have drawn now would that satify as being an Elliott Wave pattern?




As somebody mentioned earlier, wave-4 cannot enter the price territory of wave-1. Wave-3 cannot be the shortest wave, but is usually the longest wave...especially in stocks. Another guideline...a correction often terminates at wave-4 of 1 lower degree as in your example. Not criticism...just some pointers to bare in mind.


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## Boggo

I would probably say that a W.4 cannot CLOSE within the territory of W.1 would be a more accurate rule for W.4 especially if you are using line charts.


----------



## Porper

Boggo said:


> I would probably say that a W.4 cannot CLOSE within the territory of W.1 would be a more accurate rule for W.4 especially if you are using line charts.




True, different analysts can use either rule. I prefer to not allow any price action into wave-1, at least in stocks. More volatile instruments like futures are different. The key is to stick to your own definition. There is no right or wrong.


----------



## Ann

Porper said:


> As somebody mentioned earlier, wave-4 cannot enter the price territory of wave-1. Wave-3 cannot be the shortest wave, but is usually the longest wave...especially in stocks. Another guideline...a correction often terminates at wave-4 of 1 lower degree as in your example. Not criticism...just some pointers to bare in mind.







Boggo said:


> I would probably say that a W.4 cannot CLOSE within the territory of W.1 would be a more accurate rule for W.4 especially if you are using line charts.





I would be really interested to persue the Elliott Wave Theory with those who have a knowledge and an interest in it. It is a massive gaping hole in my knowledge and now I feel I am actually getting somewhere by talking about it. 

However I am really disinclined to continue discussions on this thread as it is now totally off topic.

Is there a thread for Elliott Wave Theory on this forum? If not would someone care to open a thread where further discussions and examples could take place?


----------



## shezian

Where are you guys getting all your data from? How far back does the charts go? What year?

Thanks Sue


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## Ann

shezian said:


> Where are you guys getting all your data from? How far back does the charts go? What year?
> 
> Thanks Sue




Hi Sue, 

I use 'Incredible Charts' (free or by subsciption). They are a wonderful charting program for beginners and advanced chartists. Plenty of info on the site. Their history of Dow Jones Index goes back to Jan 1988. Not a really long term historic view but interesting enough to be able to scribble a few lines over the chart! 

Cheers

Ann


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## Boggo

Ann said:


> I would be really interested to persue the Elliott Wave Theory with those who have a knowledge and an interest in it. It is a massive gaping hole in my knowledge and now I feel I am actually getting somewhere by talking about it.




The bible of the KISS principle of EW is Dynamic Trading by Robert Miner. You have probably jumped an essential step by going straight to Frost and Prechter.
Also have a google of Carolyn Boroden for Fibonacci and subscribe her free email for daily sample charts.



Ann said:


> However I am really disinclined to continue discussions on this thread as it is now totally off topic.
> Is there a thread for Elliott Wave Theory on this forum? If not would someone care to open a thread where further discussions and examples could take place?




Type Elliott Wave into search above or just open a thread, there is probably enough on here already


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## Ann

Boggo said:


> The bible of the KISS principle of EW is Dynamic Trading by Robert Miner. You have probably jumped an essential step by going straight to Frost and Prechter.
> Also have a google of Carolyn Boroden for Fibonacci and subscribe her free email for daily sample charts.
> 
> Type Elliott Wave into search above or just open a thread, there is probably enough on here already




Hi Boggo,
Thanks for Miner, you have just mentioned my oldest favourite KISS  and my newest favourite EW. I will seek it out! 

I never subscribe to anything. I learned years ago you just get an inbox full of cow pat/junk mail/scams which is damnably annoying!

Now can we ferkin' just st0p being off topic folks! The man will descend on us pretty darn soon!

Hi Joe!


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## Ann

OK, still persisting with Elliott Waves, I am looking at a weekly historical chart of the Dow set in Log scale with some historic Elliott Wave calculations from the book Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter pg 156 which I have repeated on this chart. The chart in the book cut out about 1980 but the chart I have goes up to the present day 2014. I have added my own Elliott Wave calculations from my still very limited knowledge of EWs.

It is interesting watching history repeat itself and it certainly looks like we are in for a lengthy correction if this current broadening top/megaphone/'jaws of death' shape evolves into its potential pattern outcome.

You will need to press onto the chart to see it clearly.


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## Wysiwyg

Highly accomadative stance on monetary policy by FOMC gives the bulls a continue to-the-moon cue.


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## Wysiwyg

Ann said:


> OK, still persisting with Elliott Waves, I am looking at a weekly historical chart of the Dow set in Log scale with some historic Elliott Wave calculations from the book Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter pg 156 which I have repeated on this chart. The chart in the book cut out about 1980 but the chart I have goes up to the present day 2014. I have added my own Elliott Wave calculations from my still very limited knowledge of EWs.
> 
> *It is interesting watching history repeat itself and it certainly looks like we are in for a lengthy correction if this current broadening top/megaphone/'jaws of death' shape evolves into its potential pattern outcome.*
> 
> You will need to press onto the chart to see it clearly.



Not entirely absent analysis with the corrections being relatively minor but obviously the megaphone top hasn't been effective on this occasion. Gee whiz I learnt years ago not to resist the American bull.


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## rimtas

Wysiwyg said:


> Gee whiz I learnt years ago not to resist the American bull.




Aussie bull will make a good lesson for many as well.(In terms of not resisting it)


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## Ann

Wysiwyg said:


> Not entirely absent analysis with the corrections being relatively minor but obviously the megaphone top hasn't been effective on this occasion. Gee whiz I learnt years ago not to resist the American bull.




You may be right Wysiwyg! 

It might catch a few people short if it resolves the way it looks by my calculations.

I have drawn on a twelve year daily chart showing two swing trade calculations. The first (A-B) showed a final outcome of around 21,020 and the second smaller swing trade calculation (C-D), which has yet to break out of its rising wedge pattern, also has an outcome of around 21,020. The upward breakout should it occur, may happen around October 7.


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## Wysiwyg

Ann said:


> I have drawn on a twelve year daily chart showing two swing trade calculations. The first (A-B) showed a final outcome of around *21,020* and the second smaller swing trade calculation (C-D), which has yet to break out of its rising wedge pattern, also has an outcome of around *21,020*. *The upward breakout should it occur, may happen around October 7*.



One month out but not a bad may happen.  20000 points has some nervousness attached to it with indicators diverging from price (not good reliability). I assume profits are locked in with
a. any further gains being sold into thus catching momentum traders
b. first to blink trips trailing stops

but cause not knowing
c. break 20000 and keep going 

p.s. in other words, don't know which game the big hands will play


----------



## Ann

Wysiwyg said:


> One month out but not a bad may happen.  20000 points has some nervousness attached to it with indicators diverging from price (not good reliability). I assume profits are locked in with
> a. any further gains being sold into thus catching momentum traders
> b. first to blink trips trailing stops
> 
> but cause not knowing
> c. break 20000 and keep going
> 
> p.s. in other words, don't know which game the big hands will play
> 
> View attachment 69215


----------



## Ann

G'day Wysiwyg,

There seems to be a lot of doom and gloom talk about the DOW. Like 'everyone' knows it is going to crash. Elliot wavers are flying their flags, even Buffett was saying it is a gonner in some adds/articles. People were saying there would be brokers jumping out of windows. Why would they jump if everyone already knew the DOW was going to tank, they would already be out or heavily hedged.  I feel like I am the only one feeling bullish which tends to be a contrarian signal for others over the years! 

I have had my concerns it has run up far too quickly since Trump got elected. It almost seemed like they were all running it up for a final bailout. I was tempted to dump all my stocks but then I looked at them on a monthly basis and they all looked too damn healthy. (Mind you I do have Fool as my avi!)

I am going to watch the DOW for a healthy retrace. I am now feeling happier it has slowed and showing a rounding away from the 20,000 level as it is purely psychological and doesn't appear to have any technical basis for a fall away. I have looked at it on a daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly chart and nothing is telling me to cut and run. Sometimes I will see stuff on longer term charts that tells me a different story.

I can see two potential levels of a technical support. First would be the 19100-ish level of the rising resistance/support level coming from November 2015. The second level of support is the 200dSMA which has been a support twice in the recent past for a retrace in June 2016 and again in November 2016. While money flow is falling it has a long way to travel before I see anything alarming. If and when it falls below the 200dEMA I may have some concerns.

My final thoughts on the DOW is a quote by -  







			
				Peter Lynch said:
			
		

> “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.”


----------



## Porper

The Dow is not looking too flash i.m.o.

Looks like a topping pattern followed by impulsive price action lower. If correct this is only the start of a significant correction. More in depth analysis to follow later.


----------



## Porper

Porper said:


> The Dow is not looking too flash i.m.o.
> 
> Looks like a topping pattern followed by impulsive price action lower. If correct this is only the start of a significant correction. More in depth analysis to follow later.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 91144




 Maybe the U.S has thrown us a curved ball. Amazing how the patterns can change in a flash.

This now looks like a good example of an Expanded Flat pattern. Impulsive higher so far adds weight to this wave count. If correct then it's up, up & away.  My gut says be cautious but I have learnt to ignore this as it's simply emotion at the end of the day. Trade the patterns and ignore feelings.


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## Ann

@Sean K I thought you might be interested in this historic view of the Dow. My IC charts don't have as long a history with the Dow as they do with All Ords. I drew the line from approximately the same year I drew on the All Ords the other day. It won't be an exact comparison but possibly interesting enough. I am not really seeing a massive bubble here. Clearly, there have been bigger lifts above the line. This just looks like it needs a minor correction or possibly a sideway jog will see it back closer to the mean. Interesting to watch.






@Sean K thought I would add a younger chart for the NYSE as well.


----------



## Sean K

Ann said:


> @Sean K I thought you might be interested in this historic view of the Dow. My IC charts don't have as long a history with the Dow as they do with All Ords. I drew the line from approximately the same year I drew on the All Ords the other day. It won't be an exact comparison but possibly interesting enough. I am not really seeing a massive bubble here. Clearly, there have been bigger lifts above the line. This just looks like it needs a minor correction or possibly a sideway jog will see it back closer to the mean. Interesting to watch.




Looks pretty orderly from 1980 up doesn't it. The run ups to 00 and 08 look a bit more bubbly. Hmmm


----------

