# FTSE Futures Trading - Analysis and Discussion



## pavilion103 (21 May 2014)

With the popularity of the "Transition to Futures" thread attracting participants from many markets, I have decided to start a "break away" thread specific to analysis and discussion of the FTSE futures index for those who may wish to discuss this particular market more closely. 

I will be contributing regularly in this thread with my ongoing trading of the FTSE futures index.


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## pavilion103 (21 May 2014)

This is the 30 minute chart showing the change in market direction since last Thursday. 

I am only looking for shorts now. 
Looking for 2 contracts. 1 x intra day. 1 x overnight (if opportunity presents).


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## CanOz (21 May 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> I am only looking for shorts now.




You're such a perma bear


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## pavilion103 (21 May 2014)

CanOz said:


> You're such a perma bear




Haha. I admit it seems that way! 

Although at support levels in a bull trend I will hammer the longs in the same way. 

In this instance, I see a potential top after an extended up move. 
I'm looking for trades mainly at the open of the day to hold for the day. 
I don't feel that the long trades are a good move for me in light of the above. 

Wait until a bull run and everyone will be calling me a bull


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## pavilion103 (21 May 2014)

Ok. I think a good setup at 6782.5

I've taken 2 contracts here with an initial stop at 6790. 

Both stops moved to 6787.5 as it moves down a bit after entry.


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## pavilion103 (21 May 2014)

Both stops breakeven as price consolidates around 6775ish area.


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## pavilion103 (22 May 2014)

The stop on the position trade has been moved to 6855. 
No point just leaving it above the high for no reason. 
If it takes me out and sets up again I'll just get a re-entry.


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## pavilion103 (22 May 2014)

FTSE looking strong on open. 

I am long 6826 with my classic "spring" setup on open. 

Stop to BE now. Will post a chart later.


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## pavilion103 (22 May 2014)

Closed out. 
Short again


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## VSntchr (22 May 2014)

PAV - your short call has proved to be pretty on the money IMO. Last night the US was pretty strong, and the ASX and SENG were pretty strong today too...yet the FTSE has really not joined the party....it is outside of the short term down trend (that I have scribbled on the chart) but it hasn't bolted and looks likely to be falling back inside...

Just my n00b observations as I have been enjoying watching as I have had some spare time the past month while the GF is away...


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## pavilion103 (22 May 2014)

VSntchr said:


> PAV - your short call has proved to be pretty on the money IMO. Last night the US was pretty strong, and the ASX and SENG were pretty strong today too...yet the FTSE has really not joined the party....it is outside of the short term down trend (that I have scribbled on the chart) but it hasn't bolted and looks likely to be falling back inside...
> 
> Just my n00b observations as I have been enjoying watching as I have had some spare time the past month while the GF is away...




Daily chart is interesting with the FTSE. 

Yesterday was a low volume push up. 
It can always be expected that there will be some sort of test of the high. 
Today pushed up on open also before reversing. 
I like the fact that price has pushed up a bit on the daily without much force thus far. 

I'm short at 6830 for another contract. 
Was considering taking another 2, but with some news out I was a little hesitant. 

If this 6840 area holds, it looks good for a medium term down move. 

The rest of today is critical though. 
Not saying it will happen, but just want to put myself in the position that if it does move down, I am in (whilst minimising the risk at the same time).


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## pavilion103 (22 May 2014)

Added a contract at 26 after the push up and rejection. 

A lot of these wide bars the last few days but not follow through so I'm still skeptical, but no doubt some volatility at the least!


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## pavilion103 (22 May 2014)

My trades for the night. 
It's at a crucial level now. 
6800-6810 is reasonable support. 
Not out of the woods yet. 

In the normal course of events I would look to maybe take one off on the next consolidation/low but I see this as a high opportunity time to take more risk with open profit. 

If it was 40-50 points in my favor, I'd consider it closely.


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## pavilion103 (22 May 2014)

Reversal on 10 and 15 minute chart and I've lifted one at 6814.5.
Reversal looking reasonably strong so decided one off would be wise. 
Locks in a little profit

2 running.


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## pavilion103 (22 May 2014)

Now reversed one.

Long 6814, stop 6805.5

Stop just moved to 6809.
Aggressive trailing.


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## pavilion103 (22 May 2014)

Taken out of long for 2 point loss.

Back with 2 short.

Will leave overnight now.


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## pavilion103 (22 May 2014)

Before I go to bed I'll post up the longer term position. 

Contract 1 - stop 6855

Contract 2 - stop 6836.5


Wishing I'd left the 3rd on 
Great spot for a position trade if every I was going to take a risk!


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## pavilion103 (22 May 2014)

And finally, the intra-day trade and holding this one above the high at 6836.5. 





I hope people are enjoying the updates. 

This is becoming kind of like a journal for me anyway. 
I can always re-read and refer back to it if I feel like it. 

Most of these charts saved to file anyway.


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## pavilion103 (23 May 2014)

Price falling on open. 
Gives me some breathing room for now. 

Didn't see an opportunity to add to my position. 


Really regretting not holding the 3rd yesterday, for the sake of saving about 15 points 

Not to worry. At least I've got 2. 


Very weak open. 
Expecting it to find support around 6790 and at least pause and push up a little, even if it does continue down after that.


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## pavilion103 (23 May 2014)

Considered a long 89, 81
Didn't take it because I'm heading out soon. 
High probability area to get it to BE asap.


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## pavilion103 (24 May 2014)

My analysis of the FTSE futures chart. 

My analysis appear to be different to some of the others' on here, but this is how I see things. 

I think the 6880 area is reasonably safe now.


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## pavilion103 (24 May 2014)

Also note that this Monday 26th May is a public holiday in the UK.


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## pavilion103 (24 May 2014)

The last 6 trading days have been interesting. 
There has been mixed opinion about my holding approach, and I understand these views and agree that without the context it would possibly not be the ideal approach. 

The last 6 days since taking that first position trade I have made:

Intra-day profit - Net 40 points = $720

Locked in profit from position trade 1 = 35 points = $630

Total locked in profit = 75 points = $1,350


Current open profit = 75 points approx = $1,350.


So of the $2,700 profit in the last 6 trading days, 50% is locked in. 

For me, this is a reasonable balance given that I've locked in 50% profit and am still holding 2 contracts on the position trade, with a stop in a technically sound (yet somewhat risky) position. 



If 6837 gets taken out, I will watch closely to see how price action responds and look to get in again with multiple contracts if price tests between 6840-6880 and fails again. 

As always, I aim to minimise initial risk first. 
To take on 2 contracts I am almost certain to risk between 15-20 points combined on a trade. 


This next week is critical. 
IF it does break down then it's a great position to be in. 
Every 55 point move will be $2,000 without having to do anything at all, other than watch and trail my stops, while also trading a 3rd contract intra-day and capturing probably around another 50% of the move through those trades. 

Sounds all good in theory. 
Let's see how it plays out. 

If 6880 is taken out with strength, I will change my analysis, but that hasn't happened yet.


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## kid hustlr (24 May 2014)

Agree with the predictions.

2 things:

- If that was a 3 minute chart we would take a short a tick below Thursday nights bar.

- I'm not sure how comfortable I would be holding such a (relatively?) large amount of open profit over what is in effect a 3 day weekend. This is probably more of a risk when holding longs than shorts but the principle still stands that you are now left open to gapping.


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## pavilion103 (24 May 2014)

kid hustlr said:


> Agree with the predictions.  2 things:  - If that was a 3 minute chart we would take a short a tick below Thursday nights bar.  - I'm not sure how comfortable I would be holding such a (relatively?) large amount of open profit over what is in effect a 3 day weekend. This is probably more of a risk when holding longs than shorts but the principle still stands that you are now left open to gapping.




It's a good point.
Something I did consider.

I also considered that a short is less risky than holding a long over the 3 day weekend.

I could get this wrong.

I figure that it could work in my favor though. Looking at the DOW and S&P, I see them as pushing up the last week on lower volume. Same with DAX. I would suspect that Monday night they either
1) push-up again a little on low volume (then the FTSE won't gap above my stop).
2) they push down after this little push up fails (in which case the FTSE May gap down).

I see a strong rise on Monday as unlikely given the context.

I having said that, I could be terribly wrong.


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## VSntchr (24 May 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> I also considered that a *short is less risky than holding a long over the 3 day weekend*.
> 
> .




Both yourself and Kid referred to this, is this purely in the context of the *current* conditions?


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## pavilion103 (24 May 2014)

VSntchr said:


> Both yourself and Kid referred to this, is this purely in the context of the current conditions?




I think 

1) In the context

2) Price can tend to smash lower quicker and further than a long shoots up. I.e. It moves faster down than up.


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## VSntchr (24 May 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> I think
> 
> 1) In the context
> 
> 2) Price can tend to smash lower quicker and further than a long shoots up. I.e. It moves faster down than up.




Thanks PAV.


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## cynic (24 May 2014)

kid hustlr said:


> Agree with the predictions.
> 
> 2 things:
> 
> ...




I note that your comment appears to be in reference to a "large amount of open profit". Would your sentiments be any different if it were a large amount of open loss instead?


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## cynic (24 May 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> I think
> 
> 1) In the context
> 
> 2) Price can tend to smash lower quicker and further than a long shoots up. I.e. It moves faster down than up.




I've noticed that these days short covering rallies tend to cause similarly explosive moves to the upside. However, please don't allow me to dissuade you. (Based upon your postings, you seem to be outperforming me at present.)


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## pavilion103 (24 May 2014)

cynic said:


> I've noticed that these days short covering rallies tend to cause similarly explosive moves to the upside. However, please don't allow me to dissuade you. (Based upon your postings, you seem to be outperforming me at present.)




All good.
I'm still learning mate.

Value your input.


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## pavilion103 (24 May 2014)

I just want to reiterate that I'm not putting myself up as an expert on here. Just recordings my trades and thoughts.

I'm still very much learning and contemplating theories and ideas. This is my journey. All my thoughts are my observations and contemplations. 

I love people challenging these ideas and offering alternate perspectives. Go for it!


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## kid hustlr (25 May 2014)

VSntchr said:


> Both yourself and Kid referred to this, is this purely in the context of the *current* conditions?




In this context yeah but probably more so an overall black swan event. If you think natural disaster or crisis or war etc etc - they are all events which are likely to cause a heavy sell of, as such holding longs over a prolonged market closed period is inherently 'more risky'. Put simply, a black swan event is more likely to cause a big gap down than a big gap up.



cynic said:


> I note that your comment appears to be in reference to a "large amount of open profit". Would your sentiments be any different if it were a large amount of open loss instead?




No not really. That being said for me the question is moot because I would never have such a large amount of open loss ( I hope!). Not saying there aren't systems which work well and at times have large open losses, I'm just saying for me the issue is irrelevant.



cynic said:


> I've noticed that these days short covering rallies tend to cause similarly explosive moves to the upside. However, please don't allow me to dissuade you. (Based upon your postings, you seem to be outperforming me at present.)




I've noticed this to and I think when market are in some form of range trading (as the FTSE has been on a daily scale over the past few months) the highs and lows can get turned around very quickly as a large proportion of the players are more shorter term in nature.


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## pavilion103 (25 May 2014)

Black Swan is a very important consideration as mentioned above. 

I was thinking about this Friday night when I decided to stay in. 

I thought that it is unlikely that some huge event will cause a massive gap up, but rather if something enormous happened over the weekend it is likely to be negative (e.g. crisis, war etc). 

I would be far more nervous holding a long.


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## pavilion103 (25 May 2014)

Some loosely drawn in lines on the 4 hour chart. 

A bearish channel and a micro triangle forming.


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## barney (25 May 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> Some loosely drawn in lines on the 4 hour chart.
> 
> A bearish channel and a micro triangle forming.





Another way to look at the same position.

The FTSE seems to be the odd man out on a shorter time frame with the DOW, DAX and CAC all continuing up ..... something has to give.

I think Fridays low will be tested either way, but until the Index's sync up a bit, I'm of the opinion that I have no opinion:


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## pavilion103 (25 May 2014)

barney said:


> Another way to look at the same position.  The FTSE seems to be the odd man out on a shorter time frame with the DOW, DAX and CAC all continuing up ..... something has to give.  I think Fridays low will be tested either way, but until the Index's sync up a bit, I'm of the opinion that I have no opinion:




FTSE definitely odd man out. Relative weakness.

Nothing conclusive at all though. 
I think it's more weak than strong but it could push up back to the highs at 6980 again quite easily.


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## CanOz (26 May 2014)

Interesting to see, when the market opens tomorrow, if there is a gap up or down in reaction to the news out of Europe on:

1.) The UKR election result (expected?)

2.) The EU Parliamentary elections

I'm not one to hold through a weekend, let alone a long weekend unless I'm end of day trading. Good luck with that, hope it opens flat or in your favor...


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## pavilion103 (26 May 2014)

CanOz said:


> Interesting to see, when the market opens tomorrow, if there is a gap up or down in reaction to the news out of Europe on:
> 
> 1.) The UKR election result (expected?)
> 
> ...





This is all a little new for me. 

Maybe it doesn't work out. I'm not sure. 

I am used to studying price action. 
I understand that other news considerations should be considered also. 

I didn't know about the elections. Maybe showing my lack of experience in not researching all the information which could have any impact on price. How much to take these things into consideration, I don't know. 


I follow the basics, such as don't trade around times when major news it out etc. 

FTSE doesn't tend to gap around too much. 

I don't know. We will see. 
I'm sure that either way it won't be disastrous. 

Going through every one of these different scenarios that I haven't gone through before gives me important experience and perspective.


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## CanOz (26 May 2014)

Yes, the best way to learn is from experience. I think I'd only worry if Asia had a huge day today. The other markets are all closed so you should be pretty safe....As its looking now the HSI and HHI may close the gap...


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## pavilion103 (27 May 2014)

Interesting.  FTSE gapped up about 20 points.  I closed my shorts at around 6820.  So I realized some more profit and can look for a reentry if I see fit.  Too much uncertainty pre-open.   Now I'm out and can reassess tonight!


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## pavilion103 (27 May 2014)

Trading largely based on context. 

3 point risk. Entry @ 6830

Only the 1 contract.


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## pavilion103 (27 May 2014)

Out BE


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## pavilion103 (29 May 2014)

Looking at shorting a bearish channel now IF it holds and isn't too prolonged. 

60,64, unless this pushes up in which case 68 at the high is an obvious stop.


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## pavilion103 (29 May 2014)

61.5 the entry. Multiple contracts. 

1) Managing this
2) Finishing off a presentation for church tomorrow night
3) Cats v Swans (Go Cats - not confident though).

Busy!


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## pavilion103 (29 May 2014)

Fail on both accounts. 

Trading and Footy


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## Newt (29 May 2014)

Tricky night tonight.  I fell for the short around 6853 15mins after open.  If I'd waited for a 2nd confirming reversal bar I probably would have made 5 or 6 points shorting down from 6861.  Nothing else worth trying.  

I rarely get a chance to watch the open unfold in real time.  Still learning to _sit on my hands_  :frown:


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## CanOz (30 May 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> Fail on both accounts.
> 
> Trading and Footy




Way to go swans! Chalk up another one.


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## CanOz (30 May 2014)

Newt said:


> Tricky night tonight.  I fell for the short around 6853 15mins after open.  If I'd waited for a 2nd confirming reversal bar I probably would have made 5 or 6 points shorting down from 6861.  Nothing else worth trying.
> 
> I rarely get a chance to watch the open unfold in real time.  Still learning to _sit on my hands_  :frown:




I can't even look at a chart, but guessing you're all in a balance area swinging for the fences when you should be range trading....I swear I can load no charts!


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## kid hustlr (31 May 2014)

Huge volume spike late in the day which got immediately bought back up.

Not sure if its random rollover volume or (more likely) end of month balancing stuff but regardless looks pretty bullish to me that close.


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## pavilion103 (31 May 2014)

kid hustlr said:


> Huge volume spike late in the day which got immediately bought back up.  Not sure if its random rollover volume or (more likely) end of month balancing stuff but regardless looks pretty bullish to me that close.




I'm not too sure.
I wouldn't read into an individual bar in terms of close but the huge volume has caught my attention.

They way that I look at it is that there is some huge volume. Now we will see how price responds around this area.


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## skyQuake (31 May 2014)

MSCI Index Rebalance. Its like a S&P rebal only a bit less volume


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## kid hustlr (2 June 2014)

skyQuake said:


> MSCI Index Rebalance. Its like a S&P rebal only a bit less volume





ta mate, does that happen monthly quarterly?


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## skyQuake (2 June 2014)

kid hustlr said:


> ta mate, does that happen monthly quarterly?




May/Nov for high Vol, Aug/Feb for lowish vol


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## pavilion103 (3 June 2014)

Hey guys. 

There hasn't been too much excitement over the past week or so. Quite boring. 

I will probably be less active on here for the time being, as time is an issue at present. 

I'm focusing on taking fewer trades. 

The way I see it is that 1 good trades a week can be an average income. 

1 trades x 30 points (x2contracts) = $1,030 per week. 

Putting things into this perspective it makes me realise that attempting too many trades is counterproductive. 

1 good trade = $1,030
2 good trades = $2,060
3 good trades = $3,090


Cutting back trades may be challenging psychologically at first but I want to have this mindset.


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## Lone Wolf (3 June 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> I'm focusing on taking fewer trades.
> 
> The way I see it is that 1 good trades a week can be an average income.
> 
> ...




I assume by taking less trades you mean that you have ideal setups in your playbook and some other B grade setups. You intend to only take the A+ setups?

Or do you actually mean to limit the number of trades taken regardless of how good the setup is?

It has been said that if you have an edge, then the more opportunities you can find to make that edge work for you the better off you will be.

It has been a bit slow on the FTSE recently. I've just been grinding along. Two quick trades tonight (I only just got home in time for the first entry, so I missed a couple points). Looks like there's more movement tonight, but I'm happy with a quick hit and run.


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## pavilion103 (3 June 2014)

Lone Wolf said:


> I assume by taking less trades you mean that you have ideal setups in your playbook and some other B grade setups. You intend to only take the A+ setups?  Or do you actually mean to limit the number of trades taken regardless of how good the setup is?  It has been said that if you have an edge, then the more opportunities you can find to make that edge work for you the better off you will be.  It has been a bit slow on the FTSE recently. I've just been grinding along. Two quick trades tonight (I only just got home in time for the first entry, so I missed a couple points). Looks like there's more movement tonight, but I'm happy with a quick hit and run.  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=58213"/>




Exactly.
Taking A grade setups only (regardless of how often they occur).

Tonight I am short 6844.5 with stop at BE.
Only 1 contract.
Holding now.
If I had 2 I would have lifted one around 6826.


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## VSntchr (3 June 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> Exactly.
> Taking A grade setups only (regardless of how often they occur).
> 
> Tonight I am short 6844.5 with stop at BE.
> ...



was that entry on open pav? 
Wondering what triggered u both to go short?


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## pavilion103 (3 June 2014)

VSntchr said:


> was that entry on open pav? Wondering what triggered u both to go short?




Will post a chart tomorrow mate.  

An opportunistic entry with good RR based on market context.
Only risked 3.5 points.


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## Lone Wolf (3 June 2014)

In my case the idea for short was - We started the day with a strong move down, the up move that followed lacked volume and was obviously struggling to go higher. When I first opened the chart, the up trend had just broken and I got short looking for a continuation of the original down move.


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## pavilion103 (3 June 2014)

Quick update. Will hold over night.


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## pavilion103 (4 June 2014)

Closed out yesterday's for small profit after open. 

Entered 2 x contracts for very low risk with a nice little setup. 

Stops to BE


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## VSntchr (4 June 2014)

I was watching tonight PAV and initially was thinking short at 6827ish, but was patient and it pushed right through...then the uptrend broke at 6830 and the short seemed on. Looks to have hit the bottom of the range...(for now)


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## pavilion103 (5 June 2014)

50 points net.

Exited them around 6800 and 6810.


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## pavilion103 (7 June 2014)

Frustrating last night.
Took a great long setup in the first 10 minutes of trading. As it shot up I planned to hold at BE.
I got taken out by 1 point 

Could have been a 50 point trade.
So many near misses in this game.


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## pavilion103 (9 June 2014)

Crucial level on daily now. Right at resistance but looking strong. 

I'm in a long x 2 contracts. Stops to BE.

Just putting myself in a good position if it does push higher.

Very similar to my setup on Friday when I got taken out by 1 point. 

Interesting to see if there is any resistance or strange behavior here or not.


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## pavilion103 (11 June 2014)

An interesting view of my setup on open yesterday. 
If there looks to be a reasonable setup I'll take it for 4-5 points on open because of the potential payoff. 
This one moved about 25 points. 

I use the 5 min, 3 min, 2 min, 1 min
This is only for the open.


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## pavilion103 (11 June 2014)

Hugely successful night. 
First 2 setups on open failed for -4.8 and -3.8 respectively. 

Re-entered. 
Just took off both contracts at 6828.5 and 6831 for total of 61 point profit. 

It's at a support level, so no regrets even if this does keep going. 

I've got what I came for


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## pavilion103 (11 June 2014)

I might add that tonight the luck fell in my favour.

I held at break even during the UK news that was out and was kept in BY THE TICK!!


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## pavilion103 (12 June 2014)

Another near identical setup on open. 
This pattern has repeated itself 3 times this week on open. 

Difficult one to play now because resistance is at 6825 area. 
Could hold and then move up, or could keep moving lower. 
We will see.


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## pavilion103 (12 June 2014)

Last night's trades


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## VSntchr (12 June 2014)

Nice trade there PAV, good to see your set-ups paying off.


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## pavilion103 (12 June 2014)

In progress. 
Stop at BE. 
Forming a triangle. 
Could go either way. 
If it was 20 points in profit I'd consider lifting one. 
For 10 points per contract I'd rather allow for a push down and then lift one/both


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## pavilion103 (13 June 2014)

2 short 6815.
This is what I've be looking for!!
Lifted one at 6780.

Leaving a runner now


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## VSntchr (13 June 2014)

Woohoo, straight down the hole tonight...exciting to see some action!


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## pavilion103 (13 June 2014)

When everyone was criticizing me for seeing what I wanted to see on the short side I did not let it deter me. 

A good lesson for all traders.


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## pavilion103 (14 June 2014)

Closed one 6780 and the other 6770.

Will look for re-entry Monday. 

Good week.


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## pavilion103 (16 June 2014)

6770 short.
A couple of failed attempts before that losing a handful of points.

I stupidly only took one!

Will leave overnight.


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## cynic (17 June 2014)

VSntchr said:


> Woohoo, straight down the hole tonight...exciting to see some action!




Well, that's Friday 13th for you!!

Could it be that the FTSE is superstitious?!!!


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## pavilion103 (22 June 2014)

FTSE boring for me last week. 
Nothing really to report. 
Left the screen early most nights. 

Had more luck on the SPI which I've started to trade.


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## pavilion103 (4 July 2014)

I have been working on my opening setups and broader strategy. 

Some brilliant open setups this week. However, I haven't traded much. 

I identified (in emails) the 6710 area as a great place for a long position trade. Price has moved up to 6820 and is now at a critical level. If this breaks through it will be interesting. 


There hasn't been much discussion in the futures threads.


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## pavilion103 (4 July 2014)

Here is the chart


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## pavilion103 (8 July 2014)

My thinking has turned back to the short side now. 

Read the market well last night. 
Got a brilliant low risk setup. 

I had a brain fade and broke one of my rules. 

My rules are
1) Stop to BE ASAP (practically possible)
2) Leave it there until the next significant S/R has developed OR I take profit. 


I moved my stop a silly 4 points and got taken out by 1 lousy tick!
I deserved it. 

What a great place it would have been to have held a position to the short side.


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## kid hustlr (8 July 2014)

hmm yeah bit of an error there.

agreed that in the short term (this week?) short side is probably on but little conviction from me.


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## pavilion103 (8 July 2014)

kid hustlr said:


> hmm yeah bit of an error there.
> 
> agreed that in the short term (this week?) short side is probably on but little conviction from me.




I had no problem taking a clear long bias last week from that support level. 

Now we are at such a significant resistance level and have encountered a bit of resistance in the last couple of days so my bias is a short one. I'll be taking only shorts. 


Because it is such significant longer term resistance price would now need to break through and retest it and it becomes support before I take a long position from here upwards (that's why my thinking was to exit any long position in the past week at these highs). 



So for now short, beyond that, I'll see what the chart tells me by how price reacts at significant levels.


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## pavilion103 (29 July 2014)

Eventful night.

At one stage down 30 points with open positions.
Then up 100 on 2 contracts.
Lifted one for 40.
Left the other and it took me out.

Ended up about 15

Different story if I had lifted both at 40 points but don't regret the way I traded. Was short biased last night. Didn't expect it to come all the way back. I thought worst case I probably take it off for 20 points in the morning.


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