# Now we have hit 4769, where to from here?



## galey (29 September 2008)

> Looking at the 50% ranges it has a very good chance.
> These 50% levels act as important support or resistance levels.
> 
> For example - In 1929 the Dow Jones made a high at 386 and crashed to 195 or 50% before rallying to 297. What is so important about 297? This level is also 50% between the high of 386 and the low 297.
> ...




*4279* is not out of the question while this market is so bearish IMHO


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## chops_a_must (29 September 2008)

*Re: Now we have hit 4769 where to from here.*



galey said:


> *4279* is not out of the question while this market is so bearish IMHO




Roughly between ~3800 and 4300 from the fibs I did ages back.

Still no reason to suggest we wont be there.


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## Spanning Tree (30 September 2008)

*Re: Now we have hit 4769 where to from here.*

All Ords is 4540 now.


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## fordxbt (30 September 2008)

*Re: Now we have hit 4769 where to from here.*

im bailing out now and sticking to cash
cutting my minor losses and can only hold the majors
id rather make $100 in crappy interest than see a thousand wiped off at the end of each trading day


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## bean (30 September 2008)

*Re: Now we have hit 4769 where to from here.*

Dow will drop to 7200-7500 in October and may do a retest in November.
On its way to 1000 (in about 5-7 years).

So All Ords October - November may hit 4000


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## Ashsaege (30 September 2008)

*Re: Now we have hit 4769 where to from here.*

My guess is it's gonna be a slow and painful drop in the all ords all the way down to 3500. Though that would be the worst case scenario.


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## Muschu (30 September 2008)

*Re: Now we have hit 4769 where to from here.*



bean said:


> Dow will drop to 7200-7500 in October and may do a retest in November.
> On its way to 1000 (in about 5-7 years)......




That's exceptionally definitive in my view.  "Dow will drop to 7200-7500..."

You may be right - or wrong.  I would hesitate to be so precise myself.


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## agro (30 September 2008)

*Re: Now we have hit 4769 where to from here.*



bean said:


> Dow will drop to 7200-7500 in October and may do a retest in November.
> On its way to 1000 (in about 5-7 years).
> 
> So All Ords October - November may hit 4000




mr bean do you go by your name?

if dow was on it's way to 1000 in 5-7 years time, would the all ords be under 100 then?

not to criticize anyone, u might be right (hope not) but i do notice alot of negative sentiment around when markets aren't going people's way,,

look at it this way, the overall all ords trajectory has been trending up! this is only a blip...


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## sardines (3 October 2008)

*Re: Now we have hit 4769 where to from here.*



Ashsaege said:


> My guess is it's gonna be a slow and painful drop in the all ords all the way down to 3500. Though that would be the worst case scenario.





My wild guess is for a low around 3400, about 50% of the 6800 peaks in 2007. Im mostly holding cash now...frightened as anything about what will happen once the US recession takes hold. Widescale deleveraging, hedge fund collapses, derisking of investment holdings can precipitate further selloffs. Gold prices seem tricky to ride but hey, I probably will consider buying some gold off the Perth Mint. During the declines I'd expect longer-term players such as the Future Fund to start inching its way back into equities. I think their moves will likely prove too early, but may be a signal for some longer-term strategic asset allocation changes say for superannuation.

However, I am more positive on the Aust economy so would be willing to buy the index + overweight nice select stocks once the panic settles down a bit. I'm very hesitant on geared funds though.


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## bean (11 October 2008)

*Re: Now we have hit 4769 where to from here.*



agro said:


> mr bean do you go by your name?
> 
> if dow was on it's way to 1000 in 5-7 years time, would the all ords be under 100 then?
> 
> ...






> Quote:
> Originally Posted by bean View Post
> Dow will drop to 7200-7500 in October and may do a retest in November.
> On its way to 1000 (in about 5-7 years)......




As I said Dow 7200-7500 in October
I also mention
3 peaks and domed house pattern which is playing out


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## Dowdy (11 October 2008)

Where to from here??


Housing prices will fall


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## agro (11 October 2008)

Dowdy said:


> Where to from here??
> 
> 
> Housing prices will fall




above and beyond

i am bullish


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## Dowdy (11 October 2008)

agro said:


> above and beyond
> 
> i am bullish




bullish on houses?

no banks are going to lend any money so that means less buyers then house prices will start falling. 

Houses have been overpriced for years. The first home buyers grant artifically shot up prices - the market will correct itself


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