# LGL - Lihir Gold



## JetDollars

Dear All,

As gold reaching high and many gold stocks follow the trend. Where would you think LHG will be heading for short term, say until the end of November this year?

Your comment will be appreciated.


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## still_in_school

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Hi Jet Dollars,

if gold can stay above $430 an ounce, we should see further appreciation in gold, and with todays election in the US, this will be dependant on who the new president is, but over all, im bullish on gold, due to gold and the US dollar hedging against each other, but some other importance to me is, that now you can trade gold on the nikkie or chinese market, anyways this is a little concern to me...

overall i may have sold out early on my gold positions in early october, though LHG gold could rally up to 1.80 or we could see the end of a trend coming soon...

Cheers,
sis


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## markor

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Given that there is consolidation going on in the resources sector, as shown by Xstrata's proposal to acquire WMC Resources, a mining house from Canada, UK or Switzerland could snap up Lihir Gold ( market cap $1.6 billion vs $7.4 billion for WMC ) ( I gleaned this from today's financial review ) in the not too distant future.
If this is the case then Lihir Gold could be a good short/medium term investment, in my opinion and I will follow it closely over the next few months.

Markor


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## phoenixrising

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Jet,

A seemingly well credentialed person at the Traders Expo on the weekend said at least some of LHG's gold costs $410/oz to mine so a price below this could be quite bearish. $20 leeway atm.

Cheers

PR


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## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

The high costs of LHG's production is one of the reasons why I've opted for higher quality gold stocks. They also have more hedging in place than some of the other stocks (eg OGD, OXR) reducing the potential upside. Also with management being less than reliable I consider it unattractive, if LHG flies up on the Gold price you can bet your bottom dollar that there'll be more gold co's which give you far more leverage. Having said that if this is a co that's not operating as profitably as it should then it may become a takeover target.


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## JetDollars

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Thanks guys regarding your opinion for LHG gold.

Before I posted this topic, I actually bought some of LHG Gold, but wanted to know other opinion on it.

I also did a covered calls with it as well.

So I hope it will stay about $1.30 by the end of this month so I get exercise which will generate more income.

I also have interest in WMR (WMC Resource) where the second offer will be coming from Xstrata in 1 or 2 weeks time. I guess the next offer will be more than $7.00 per share. So buying some call options of $7.00 or more strike price would be a good thing to do. Fingers Cross Though.


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## stockGURU

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Lihir Gold made a nice move upwards today on above average volume finishing at $1.08.

Their new geothermal power facility comes online this month and should result in significant savings. Production is forecast to increase and according to the company the cash cost per ounce is on the way down. Long term capital requirements are also set to decrease significantly.

Reserves have increased steadily since 1999 to around 18 million ounces.

Anyone still following this one? Someone was buying up big today.


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## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

What about their hedging disadvantage? Does anyone know how that affects them?


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## brerwallabi

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

This one is great one for the inexperienced to lose money. Only wish I was able to trade during the day, pretty sure I could have picked up a few $k over the last few days ggggrrr. With gold @ $417 watch closely - gold @ $450 LHG could be up and over $1.30 again but could easily drop to $1.00 or lower. Tina your money could be floating away under that bridge be careful with LHG.


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## bvbfan

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Got this from the Lihir website
 
Lihir Gold intends to continues to reduce its hedged profile over time. The company does not intend to enter into additional hedge commitments during 2005 and, based on the current and anticipated spot gold price, expects to deliver not less than 160,000 ounces into its commitments (representing 29% of those commitments) during the 2005 year. The Board of Directors has determined that at least 160,000 ounces be delivered into hedges each year and that this be reviewed, with a view to raising the minimum rate of delivery, in the event that the gold price declines closer to strike price levels.

The mark-to-market value at 31 December 2004 was negative $232.2 million based on an increased spot price of $438.00 per ounse. This compares with a value of negative $190.0 million, at a spot price of $415.65 per ounce, at the end of the previous quarter. Hedge commitments represent less than 10% of published reserves and 4.5% of resources


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## chicken

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> The high costs of LHG's production is one of the reasons why I've opted for higher quality gold stocks. They also have more hedging in place than some of the other stocks (eg OGD, OXR) reducing the potential upside. Also with management being less than reliable I consider it unattractive, if LHG flies up on the Gold price you can bet your bottom dollar that there'll be more gold co's which give you far more leverage. Having said that if this is a co that's not operating as profitably as it should then it may become a takeover target.



Rich Kid...takeover target...not likely...its a PNG company and they do their own thing up there....Goverment owns shares in this...profitable yes but Png Goverment will keep owning this I have been in PNG and difficult place to do business without the Goverment....


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## ob1kenobi

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Rich Kid...takeover target...not likely...its a PNG company and they do their own thing up there....Goverment owns shares in this...profitable yes but Png Goverment will keep owning this I have been in PNG and difficult place to do business without the Goverment....




I've worked in PNG also. The Government has always insisted on having a significant shareholding in any mining development. Much of it has to do with the diverse culture within PNG and the importance they attach to traditional land ownership, which they recognize in law. As a country, it has a lot of potential. Unfortunately too many other factors hinder the type of progress that could be made. That probably explains the extreme hedging.


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## brerwallabi

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

This is a great stock to trade who really cares if its $1.35 or below $1.00 just dont put your savings in and expect it to fund your retirement.


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## clowboy

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Anybody have any current views on this stock?


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## brerwallabi

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

The view seems to be the market is happy with its loss June half year as LHG has stated all is on track for a better and more profitable second half with considerable cost savings due to a geothermal plant. The price of gold is also closely associated to LHG there are far safer stocks then this one IMO not a long trade and not one for the nervous. It also could be near an acquistion as one day the gold will run out on Lihir Island.


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## resourceful_man

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

This is a very over rated stock.
When they decide to pay a dividended, that's when I'll consider buying them.
Strickly a high end traders stock.


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## Hanrahan

*Re: You heard about the Saudi oil sheik?*

His son wanted a cowboy outfit, so he bought him LHG.  

I don't hold and never would till they can mine profitably.


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## brisvegas

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

LHG approaching an interesting level imo , certainly will monitor in future along with XAU chart


................. Pete


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## brisvegas

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

XAU looking similar

............... Pete


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## brisvegas

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Gold in AUD for good measure


...................... Pete


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## brisvegas

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

getting interesting , short term TL supp still holding


..................... Pete


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## brisvegas

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

short term TL supp failed today. bias change for me 


..................... Pete


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## 38lulu

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

The volume was pretty high in the past few days, (almost the same as BHP). does anyone know the reason?
what's ur view on this stock?

Happy trading!

lulu


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## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				38lulu said:
			
		

> The volume was pretty high in the past few days, (almost the same as BHP). does anyone know the reason?
> what's ur view on this stock?
> 
> Happy trading!
> 
> lulu




Bears will be ruling the price of gold soon.

Read this:

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=2919

Short term price falls caught my eye.

Snake


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## 38lulu

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Snake,
thanks for sharing the article.  
I think i will HOLD - for now.... :


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## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				38lulu said:
			
		

> Snake,
> thanks for sharing the article.
> I think i will HOLD - for now.... :




Don't let my post sway your judgement, but a lot of mining stocks have taken a hammering over the past two days.


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## 38lulu

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Yes i know, it is good to hear some opinions from other people when you have doubts, but most of all, keep eyes open and trust on your own judgement. 
thank you kindly.

lulu


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## brisvegas

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				brisvegas said:
			
		

> short term TL supp failed today. bias change for me
> 
> 
> ..................... Pete





developed nicely looking to see if longer term TL supp at 1.48 ish holds . multiple time frames very useful . some rules i go by


LAWS OF MULTIPLE TIME FRAMES

1. Every time frame has its own structure.

2. The higher time frames overrule the lower time frames.

3. Prices in the lower time frame structure tend to respect the energy points of the higher time frame structure.

4. The energy points of support/resistance created by the higher time frame's vibration (prices) can be validated by the action of lower time periods.

5. The trend created by the next time period enables us to define the tradable trend.

6. What appears to be chaos in one time period can be order in another time period.


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## brisvegas

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

the weekly time frame alerted me to the potential (turned out to be actual ) pivot point . simplicity


............... Pete


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## mime

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

It's PE ratio is around 30. Do they have good future prospects? 30 is a little high for my comfort.


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## Hanrahan

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

This is a serious Q from a charting agnostic. 

The last two weeks have been turbulent for all stocks but I made two profitable trades in the bluest of blue resources this week (I don't consider myself a trader) These small wins allowed me to keep up my spirits and not lose my head his morn. Didn't sell my portfolio!!!!

Q1: Are these charts on LHG useful if they are not overlaid on the the ASX or sector charts?

Q2: More generally, if charting and black box trading works, such volitility should be manna from heaven. Was it? 

Be honest now; Who's financed a new hybrid Civic this week?


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## brisvegas

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

charting works for me 

volatility works for me

who actually wants a hybrid honda civic


............... pete


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## brisvegas

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				Hanrahan said:
			
		

> This is a serious Q from a charting agnostic.




does this mean

1.   you use charts but dont believe in god

2.  you dont believe in a charting god

3. you dont believe in charts


............. pete with a wry smile


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## Hanrahan

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				brisvegas said:
			
		

> does this mean
> 
> 1.   you use charts but dont believe in god
> 
> 2.  you dont believe in a charting god
> 
> 3. you dont believe in charts
> 
> 
> ............. pete with a wry smile



A dyslectic agnostic insomniac lays awake at night wondering if there's a dog!!

(OK, some of the youngsters may not have heard it)


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## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				mime said:
			
		

> It's PE ratio is around 30. Do they have good future prospects? 30 is a little high for my comfort.




Highly leveraged to POG imho, know gold and know LHG imho, especially with hedging decreasing. Big problem is mgmt unreliability. Just my views, I'm looking for more reliable stocks like OXR for gold leverage. No buying for me yet as it doesn't fit my criteria but some people like Brer wallaby say they make money on short term movements..


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## JetDollars

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Highly leveraged to POG imho, know gold and know LHG imho, especially with hedging decreasing. Big problem is mgmt unreliability. Just my views, I'm looking for more reliable stocks like OXR for gold leverage. No buying for me yet as it doesn't fit my criteria but some people like Brer wallaby say they make money on short term movements..




As I understand RIO trying to get out of LHG 10%, if RIO try to get why would you stay in it? that's only IMHO!


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## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Looks like LHG is breaking out of some medium term resistance around 1.95, currently at $2 on good (but not very high) volume. Bucked the trend recently in terms of POG as gold has been falling for the last few weeks. I'm waiting to see if it breaks through cleanly or if it falls back to the around 1.50/60 in the current zigzag patern. If it holds above this 2 this may be the start of a strong run imo, especially with its hedging decreasing.


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## JetDollars

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

IMO, if gold price keep going up so does LHG, but if gold start coming down LHG will come down much faster because LHG does not have a good profit record, PE is too high.

I am waiting for gold price to drop back to below $460, so I can go short with LHG.


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## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				JetDollars said:
			
		

> IMO, if gold price keep going up so does LHG, but if gold start coming down LHG will come down much faster because LHG does not have a good profit record, PE is too high.
> 
> I am waiting for gold price to drop back to below $460, so I can go short with LHG.




Hey Jet,

Gold has had some wild times, big jump yesterday, and I mean big, look at the immediate trend and the recent close. LHG has certainly told us where it prefers to head. Look at volume picking up now, big numbers means big boys are in. Still a volatile stock but is trending strongly.

Dehedging and cost reductions have changed the complexion of LHG compared to same time last year imo. Still I'm bearish pog too, shame it hasn't realised it!

I'm in LHG and will take a bet each way. Note the increase in vol on upswings and decline on pullbacks. Note that the last price and volume bars are duplicates (just an error in chart).


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## brerwallabi

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

LIHIR GOLD LTD ADR (NasdaqNM:LIHRY) Delayed quote data	Edit
Last Trade:	31.98
Trade Time:	3:25PM ET
Change:	Up 1.58 (5.20%)
Prev Close:	30.40
Open:	31.39
Bid:	31.92 x 300
Ask:	31.97 x 400
1y Target Est:	13.08

Day's Range:	31.12 - 32.07
52wk Range:	15.19 - 30.50
Volume:	325,468
Avg Vol (3m):	111,186
As you can see a  bit of activity on the NASDAQ last night up 5% a few bob can be made today on this he he.


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## MarcusDZ

*Re: GOLD Where is it heading?*

Hi,
First post - I'm a first time investor and I've been reading this forum with great interest for the last couple of weeks. I've been scouring as many sources as I can before jumping in and I'd been watching LHG closely for the last 2 weeks (as has everyone else I'm sure). Regretting that I sat on my hands for so long (I just posted off my application to E*Trade yesterday) but a lot of friends had been recommending I jump on the gold bandwagon as soon as possible.

Given that LHG has taken off, what are people's thoughts on whether it is still a good time to buy or whether I have left my run too late?

I would also be interested if anyone can let me know of any other gold stocks I should look into. 

Keep up the informative discussion.


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## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				MarcusDZ said:
			
		

> Hi,
> First post - I'm a first time investor and I've been reading this forum with great interest for the last couple of weeks. I've been scouring as many sources as I can before jumping in and I'd been watching LHG closely for the last 2 weeks (as has everyone else I'm sure). Regretting that I sat on my hands for so long (I just posted off my application to E*Trade yesterday) but a lot of friends had been recommending I jump on the gold bandwagon as soon as possible.
> 
> Given that LHG has taken off, what are people's thoughts on whether it is still a good time to buy or whether I have left my run too late?
> 
> I would also be interested if anyone can let me know of any other gold stocks I should look into.
> 
> Keep up the informative discussion.




Hey Marcus!
Welcome to ASF! Glad to see you've found some useful info here. The best way to find info on gold stocks here on ASF is to either browse through the ASX Stock Chat forum or better still, use the search tool at top of this page, just type in 'gold stock' or something similar. 

There are also a list of related threads at the bottom of each page. This thread is mainly for following the price of gold, the individual threads on gold stocks will have more info on what people thing of their prospects. (As you can see I've moved your post to this LHG thread).

Also have a quick look at our forum code of conduct and posting guidelines.

Send me a private message if you have any queries about admin stuff.

good luck!
RichKid
moderator

PS I like the avatar!


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## bvbfan

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Even though I'm a gold bull and have been since April - May 2001
I'd be very careful now, it may test $500 but I think it will come back down to $450 or lower in early 2006

Also remember that the last 3 years the rally has been from generally speaking July to December each year

There are gold stocks that have underperformed in current market for some obvious reasons, some of these would be my picks if you were looking for a more  hold than a short term trade.


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## mime

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

The stocks PE is 85. Anyone else find that a little high?


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## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				bvbfan said:
			
		

> Even though I'm a gold bull and have been since April - May 2001
> I'd be very careful now, it may test $500 but I think it will come back down to $450 or lower in early 2006.
> 
> Also remember that the last 3 years the rally has been from generally speaking July to December each year.
> 
> There are gold stocks that have underperformed in current market for some obvious reasons, some of these would be my picks if you were looking for a more  hold than a short term trade.




Agree with you, so it leaves us a small bullish window going into December, I've posted my technical view in the 'Gold- where is it heading' thread.

Mime,
If that is the correct PE for LHG then obviously it's very high but then I consider the markets to be far from rational as it reflects people's behaviour (if you look at the world you know how irrational we can be) so I'm just following the trend. But your figure is cause for concern for the risk averse, I'll be watching gold over the weekend but expect some sort of pullback before another strong leg higher for LHG in tune with gold's attempt at 500.

Also, from a fundamentals point of view word is that value pickers like Fat prophets are tipping LHG (I don't have proof) so maybe they know something we don't.


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## mime

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

The ASX site says it's PE is 7 but comsec says it's 85. Which site sould be believed?

Does the ASX site give stats like profit and revenue?


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## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				mime said:
			
		

> The ASX site says it's PE is 7 but comsec says it's 85. Which site sould be believed?
> 
> Does the ASX site give stats like profit and revenue?




Hi Mime,
Thanks for the comparison, I suspected 85 may have been a different figure (ie not the price earning _ratio_). So the pe ratio appears to be 7 which to my uninformed mind appears to be very low but it is a volatile stock.

The attachment is a capture of the financials as of eod today, from the Fin Review site www.afr.com.au- use the stock quote tool on the right of the frontpage.

Not sure what the industry average is but LHG is one of those bigger stocks more likely to be taken over as global (eg US) gold stock pe's maybe higher.


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## bvbfan

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Could be a P/E based on last years financials (85) vs forecast earnings for current year (7)


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## JetDollars

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

RK,

Very interesting to watch Gold stock in the last few days, especially LHG. I am still looking for opportunity with LHG to go short.

Been waiting for quite a long time now.

May be strangle is the way to go at this stage.




			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Hey Jet,
> 
> Gold has had some wild times, big jump yesterday, and I mean big, look at the immediate trend and the recent close. LHG has certainly told us where it prefers to head. Look at volume picking up now, big numbers means big boys are in. Still a volatile stock but is trending strongly.
> 
> Dehedging and cost reductions have changed the complexion of LHG compared to same time last year imo. Still I'm bearish pog too, shame it hasn't realised it!
> 
> I'm in LHG and will take a bet each way. Note the increase in vol on upswings and decline on pullbacks. Note that the last price and volume bars are duplicates (just an error in chart).


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## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				JetDollars said:
			
		

> RK,
> 
> Very interesting to watch Gold stock in the last few days, especially LHG. I am still looking for opportunity with LHG to go short.
> 
> Been waiting for quite a long time now.
> 
> May be strangle is the way to go at this stage.




Yes, could retrace, very volatile stock but I see pog 490+ easy on this current thrust.


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## JetDollars

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

I tried to place a straddle order on separate leg today, but only the put side got filled.

So might have to buy call tomorrow.

or maybe gold will retrace back to 475 tonight .... LOL ...



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Yes, could retrace, very volatile stock but I see pog 490+ easy on this current thrust.


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## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				JetDollars said:
			
		

> I tried to place a straddle order on separate leg today, but only the put side got filled.
> 
> So might have to buy call tomorrow.
> 
> or maybe gold will retrace back to 475 tonight .... LOL ...




Hey Jet,
Gold up again, LHG pulling back a bit today but volume is high. I've learnt the hardway about not being able to constuct a strangle/straddle in time, very risky and I've lost money trying to be greedy. Hope you are able to construct your strategy without too much drama, problem is you need a strong move in some direction and plenty of time too. 

Let me know how you go, maybe start a thread in the Derivatives forum if you want to do a 'follow my trade' type thread but that may be too much trouble for you since options move very fast.

BTW, good to have you back, I recall you used to be a regular in the early months of ASF, hope you can hang around!


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## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Some profit taking on high volume, next issue is that recent trendline, will it hold? Might be a strong retracement, gold up but LHG down. On the way up it was high vol on up days and low vol on down days. These last few days have been the opposite. I'm watching for a reversal but as they say, be slow to sell while a trend is in place.


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## smrt-guy

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

I've done pretty well out of Lihir the last couple of years, but after the landslide this year I started to have concerns. It really brought home the fact that not only is this stock unhedged (or at least comparitively so compared to other large cap operators) so feels the most impact of the gold price when it corrects, but it is a single mine operator and only needs one major incident to stop all production entirely.

While being unhedged gives it lots of upside in a bullish market I've decided it's run hard of late and now the potential risks don't justify the rewards for me at this point. I've got my funds in alternative gold stocks at the moment.

Each to their own though


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## brerwallabi

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Time
Last Traded	Price	Volume 	
10:17:23 am	$2.20	308,43O 
and at 4.15pm it was $2.32 wonder how the 3% losers stacked up today, I must be wearing blinkers again. The secret is now make when do you bank the profit just make you have the stop in, but somehow this might be in the 3's if gold breaks through tonight another big jump on the cards and gold might well top $520US before it takes a dip again. Some gold bulls already calling $1000US over the next few years.
Wherever there are winners there must be losers, 97% of them, are they those who trade without a stop. I am so glad I took the stop of Lihir last week though and usually I don't this bull gold run looks good.


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## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

That RIO offload has seen some dramatic action with LHG today. No reason at all now for a technical trader to be long in LHG imho as the immediate trend has broken. I've been watching the depth and big sell orders are going through, the buy order are mainly much smaller parcels so you can guess who's buying and who's selling. 

Gold has pulled back, can't say if it's a temporary pullback on profit taking or the start of a larger re-retracement, I expect some sort of retest of 500 since there is still a lot of momentum in the pog- just posted an interesting article in the 'Gold- where is it heading?' thread.


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## brerwallabi

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Ouch that hurt big time.


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## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Ouch that hurt big time.




It's times like this that remind us of the importance of money and risk management, nothing is accurately predictable in the stock market, as Nick Radge says in his new book the outcome is unknown and there will be a few mishaps like this from time to time but good mgmt will see us survive. Hope you get through this Brer, we all cop one from time to time, I certainly didn't see this coming (see HDR thread for possibility of same occurring there).


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## phoenixrising

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Ouch all right, Rio Tinto is not on my xmas card list.

Bought $1.92, had 2atr (20 day) trailing stop on cfd
Tues close $2.35, 2atr $2.18, gold hits $500.
Wed plan is watch for gold retracement, get out if lhg price starts to tank, $2.18 at worst.
As we know in comes Rio, the gold pullback, and an ugly Dow Jones wed.
Stops are worthless in these gap situations.

Anyway didn't drop past my buy price, so in front.
Beware the big boys when they come out to play.


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## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				phoenixrising said:
			
		

> Ouch all right, Rio Tinto is not on my xmas card list.
> 
> Bought $1.92, had 2atr (20 day) trailing stop on cfd
> Tues close $2.35, 2atr $2.18, gold hits $500.
> Wed plan is watch for gold retracement, get out if lhg price starts to tank, $2.18 at worst.
> As we know in comes Rio, the gold pullback, and an ugly Dow Jones wed.
> Stops are worthless in these gap situations.




Hi Phoenix,
Can you use Guaranteed Stop Losses (GSL) through your CFD provider? If so if you trail it do you have to pay every time you move up the price? Always a good idea when you're moving with a volatile stock using CFD's imo.


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## phoenixrising

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

RK,

Very slow responce, sorry.

I use Man, don't have gslo (like IG)

The 2atr trailing was part of my stratergy for the trade, not a trailing stop as such. I update my contingent orders daily manually, so no extra charges.

Agreed, care with volatile stocks needed.

Still in the trade, 2.17 atm. Seeing as I was blown out of the water I thought I'll play it by ear, so far so good.

BTW I looked at FAQ for how to reply with quoate to no avail, is it there? Not sure how to.

Thanks for the interest.

Cheers


----------



## RichKid

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*



			
				phoenixrising said:
			
		

> RK,
> 
> Very slow responce, sorry.
> 
> I use Man, don't have gslo (like IG)
> 
> The 2atr trailing was part of my stratergy for the trade, not a trailing stop as such. I update my contingent orders daily manually, so no extra charges.
> 
> Agreed, care with volatile stocks needed.
> 
> Still in the trade, 2.17 atm. Seeing as I was blown out of the water I thought I'll play it by ear, so far so good.
> 
> BTW I looked at FAQ for how to reply with quoate to no avail, is it there? Not sure how to.
> 
> Thanks for the interest.
> 
> Cheers




Looks like LHG may fly with the gold price going so high, glad to see you may see some more upside, good luck!
Try this link for code tips (including quotes): https://www.aussiestockforums.com/help/bb-codes


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

Bloody held, lose too much money on LHG. One trade after the other. Give up on LHG now.



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Hey Jet,
> Gold up again, LHG pulling back a bit today but volume is high. I've learnt the hardway about not being able to constuct a strangle/straddle in time, very risky and I've lost money trying to be greedy. Hope you are able to construct your strategy without too much drama, problem is you need a strong move in some direction and plenty of time too.
> 
> Let me know how you go, maybe start a thread in the Derivatives forum if you want to do a 'follow my trade' type thread but that may be too much trouble for you since options move very fast.
> 
> BTW, good to have you back, I recall you used to be a regular in the early months of ASF, hope you can hang around!


----------



## MalteseBull

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold Limited?*

LHG is good to get onto now, its on the wayup!


----------



## Ann

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Hi Guys,

Just a chart but not looking as good as it could be to me. Sorry, I am not really a bear, I just call it as I see it.....


----------



## Ann

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Let's look at the daily gold price chart.....

If LHG reflects the price of Gold it may be in a spot of bother? Too soon to really call in my opinion.

It would need to break below that MA and the MACD would have to cross below zero.

Then anything in the gold sector may be fair game as a juicy short for those who enjoy toying  with things in shorts.


----------



## Hopeful

*Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?*

LHG gave us an obvious entry on June 14th by bouncing strongly off the 200-day EMA. That price area was also an area of consolidation from Nov2005-March2006. If anyone had any interest in LHG that would have been the place to buy. 

From here, if LHG goes up strongly on decent volume it will be a late entry buy, good upside, but $2.40 would have been better.


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?*

IMO, LHG is still technically in a downtrend, having posted both lower highs and lower lows. The level of the next low would determine if that is changing or not.

GP


----------



## RichKid

*Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> IMO, LHG is still technically in a downtrend, having posted both lower highs and lower lows. The level of the next low would determine if that is changing or not.
> 
> GP




Hi GP,
Chart looks like that of a few gold stocks atm, that support level around 2.40 is important imo (resistance becomes support). Currently in that channel your describe.


----------



## Warren

*Re: Gold Stocks*

In this sort of environment, yes, hedging is not ideal.  However, most pre-production companies needing to secure bank finance for feasibility studies etc are required by the financiers to hedge their production.  The financier has no interest in the company's equity performance.  

As far as which companies to hold, I think LHG is a very promising story.  Its story is simple, it has 20 million ounces of JORC compliant reserves and 20 million in Resource.  That is a huge resource for a company that is capitalised at just over $3.5 billion.  Its main problem is that it does not produce at the appropriate scale for its resource base.  It has been promising production of > 1 million ounces since it listed a decade ago but has been unable to achieve this, and as a result its cash costs are too high and it has struggled to generate significant free cash.  

At the moment, the company mines around 8 million tonnes of ore per annum, but only processes about half of that, meaning it generates the costs of a an 8 million tpa company but only the revenue of a 4 mtpa company.

Now, however it has concrete plans for increasing its production rates to an initial 800koz pa.  They are looking at adding an additional float and or additional autoclaves to boost production.  While the autoclaves consume a lot of power, the company now has access to substantial amounts of cheap geothermal power.

I think this company can turn the corner here, and coupled with strong gold prices and little hedging should have a lot in it. I own this one.


NOTE: These are only my opinions, not financial advice or investment recommendation.


----------



## NettAssets

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Is LHG still Overvalued?


----------



## Warren

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

How do you define overvalued?


----------



## NettAssets

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I was referring to the chart and the fact that although the share price tracked the rise in gold very closely in may the diferential widened as gold continued downward. 
I will edit my post and get rid of the "still" I didn't mean to infer that it was in the past.
The change could reflect a really effective hedge book of course that locks in a higher gold price at lower levels but allows high prices to flow through - very hard to achieve in practice I think.
whoops -  left it to late I can't edit it!
John


----------



## beachbum

*Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?*



			
				Hopeful said:
			
		

> LHG gave us an obvious entry on June 14th by bouncing strongly off the 200-day EMA. That price area was also an area of consolidation from Nov2005-March2006. If anyone had any interest in LHG that would have been the place to buy.
> 
> From here, if LHG goes up strongly on decent volume it will be a late entry buy, good upside, but $2.40 would have been better.




It's easy in hindsight to say 2.40 was a great entry but we don't know that is the bottom yet. Yes it will be a great entry if prices continue to rise but I'm with Great Pig and will wait for confirmation of the break in downtrend. Oh how great it would be if we picked the exact bottom for everything.Price doesn't always stop at the 200MA.
Hope it does keep going as I will then be on board with appropriate stop.

Cheers


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Warren said:
			
		

> How do you define overvalued?




Hm how high do u think Gold prices can go, and what prices do u think Gold can be sustained indefinitely?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 1.0 9.1 14.9 13.3 
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 2.9 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-12-06 9.1 30.1 776.0% 
Year Ending 30-12-07 14.9 18.4 63.7% 

thx

MS


----------



## stockmaster

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I predict gold price can reach 650 in 3 months of time.
LHG - 3.00 - 3.20 in 1 month


----------



## Warren

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

How high can gold prices go?? How long is a piece of string?  All depends on supply and demand and the activity of speculators.  Gold is generally considered a safe-haven investment and is generally subject to greater demand under the following conditions:

1. Declining US Dollar - while the dollar is currently supported by rising US      interest rates, the enormous current account deficits that require financing suggest the dollar is due for depreciation.
2. Rising global inflation (esp expectations)
3. Geopolitical concerns (eg terrorism)
4. Global jewellery demand
5. rising oil prices relative to gold - gold becomes a more attractive investment relative to oil.  Also, rising oil prices can flow through to inflation and inflation expectations.

Supply on the other hand is more difficult to estimate.  Factors affecting supply generally relate to:

1. Central Bank gold sales 
2. New mine commissioning.  

Currently, economics seem to be favoring a rise in gold prices given rising inflation, rising oil prices etc. Supply shortages should support the gold price.

How far it goes if at all is anyone's guess.


----------



## dubiousinfo

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Interim results out today. Seems brokers have been expecting earnings for the full year to Dec 06 to be 0.09c / Shr. Interim results to Jun 06 shows earnings of 0.018c / Shr. While the 2nd half should be better its hard to see them reaching the broker forcasts. Full year earnings of 0.05c / Shr seem more likely.


----------



## nizar

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> Interim results out today. Seems brokers have been expecting earnings for the full year to Dec 06 to be 0.09c / Shr. Interim results to Jun 06 shows earnings of 0.018c / Shr. While the 2nd half should be better its hard to see them reaching the broker forcasts. Full year earnings of 0.05c / Shr seem more likely.




Maybe so but historically, when gold is going up, theres nothing better to hold than LHG


----------



## dubiousinfo

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Still its not a great way to kick off the reporting season. Let's hope RIO posts better results on Thursday


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

1157  [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Advisory firm Fat Prophets says Lihir Gold (LHG.AU) can eventually beat A$3.64 record high in May, notes though LHG has had "an unhappy knack of disappointing investors." Last A$3.02, up 5 cents. Downside limited for LHG, chart support at A$2.66 and A$2.50 "with the June low of A$2.34 underpinning the shares, in our opinion." Adds gold will in time trade above US$1,000/ounce vs about US$649 now. (IGP)


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Looks to be forming a giant wedge and if my naked eye is correct is sitting at about a 50% retractment from the $3.50 high and from the Mar 20 start of it's latest run. 

Gold consolidating between $620 and $650, which way will it break? Hmmmm. Being a long term gold bull, I'm thinking north.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Chart:


----------



## NettAssets

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Trust it does break north - I am sitting on a Bull put which is in assignment territory if it goes south any further.

Nearly bought it back tonight but will give it another day - I dont think early assignment is a worry yet.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

You poor bugger Netassets (John).


----------



## NettAssets

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Yeah it did hurt a bit  and the MM's weren't doing any favours with selling back puts!
Oh well thems the breaks no where near the max loss.
but we where so near to clear last night.
serve me right for trying to skin the MM's for a cent yesterday  and then complaining when they get me by five today.
John


----------



## NettAssets

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

wonder if I should post me avatar upside down?


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				NettAssets said:
			
		

> Yeah it did hurt a bit  and the MM's weren't doing any favours with selling back puts!
> Oh well thems the breaks no where near the max loss.
> but we where so near to clear last night.
> serve me right for trying to skin the MM's for a cent yesterday  and then complaining when they get me by five today.
> John




It was the market that did for you today, not a good day. My pick for the day SDL, ran out of steam, just no volume around.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

LHG still heading towards a point which looks to be 50% from high after it's break up earlier in the year. Pinned to POG perhaps, yes, but maybe it's a summary of gold as well.....Perhaps coming to a turning point. Either a step down or up. Would be interesting to get a Wave theorists to plot the current situ.


----------



## NettAssets

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

My  

By looking at the last weeks trading I think some players where trying to keep it under three dollars for options expiry yesterday.
I would expect it to break out upward this morning.
Up a cent now in a weak start on the market.
If it closes tonight above $3.05 I will take my theory as fact! there is not enough upside in the POG for that to be the reason.
John


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

$3.05 will take it just through the resistance level of the triangle, but $3.10 will confirm upward momentum I think. Hope you're right John. I like LHG as a long term pick anyway, even though there's considerable country risk. 

If gold going back through $650, and beyond, LHG is a great unhedged stock to have, and it's stated to be acquiitive, or could be a target of a major.


----------



## grunt

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

i hope your right kennas because i chucked the house keys on this one (2.92). i am very sure the up side of gold will push lhg to new highs pretty soon.


----------



## NettAssets

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Looks like I was very wrong on my reading of this one.

Gold hasn't backed off all that much but LHG can't get its butt out of bed


John


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

POG still vulnerable short term I reckon, until hurricane season really kicks in and Iran launches a few nukes at Israel. Well, looks like doing it any way. Peace is only a temporary thing in the Middle East. The next oil disruption is just around the corner, sending prices higher and further fears of economic downturn, recession, US$ collapse, POG up, up, and away....LHG up, up, and away. Usual one mine risks, blah blah..


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Lows are getting higher and highs are getting lower...... 

Need to just watch for when it breaks either way. Bullish is above $3.12, bearish under $2.74, imo.


----------



## grunt

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

upward breakout fri or mon.a bit of georges crazy sabre ratling should do the trick.


----------



## NettAssets

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Yeah 

Glutton for punishment Ive gone long again
couldn't pick the target last time though so Ive gone for calls instead of puts. the IV was a bit better buying too.
John


----------



## SevenFX

*Re: LHG Breakout*

Hey Kennas,

Nice to see my chart is same as yours, confirming a breakout one way or the other...?????


----------



## nizar

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> POG still vulnerable short term I reckon, until hurricane season really kicks in and Iran launches a few nukes at Israel. Well, looks like doing it any way. Peace is only a temporary thing in the Middle East. The next oil disruption is just around the corner, sending prices higher and further fears of economic downturn, recession, US$ collapse, POG up, up, and away....LHG up, up, and away. Usual one mine risks, blah blah..




kennas,

if there is an economic recession, global stockmarkets will collapse, and regardless of the price of gold, do u really think gold stocks will be spared ?


----------



## rederob

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

LHG: buy alert.
Breakout of symmetrical triangle will become evident today and gold prices will keep this stock heading for a plus$4 finish line in a few months.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> kennas,
> 
> if there is an economic recession, global stockmarkets will collapse, and regardless of the price of gold, do u really think gold stocks will be spared ?




Well, maybe I'm wrong Nizar, but golds 'safe haven' status seems alive and well to me. You only need to watch the POG everytime something dramatic happens around the world. Or, am I wrong, and it does nothing? When US$ crashes aren't world banks going to be putting their money into gold and Euros?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> kennas,
> 
> if there is an economic recession, global stockmarkets will collapse, and regardless of the price of gold, do u really think gold stocks will be spared ?




Fuel to my fire:

2319 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold at $626.40/oz, +90 cents on NY close and remaining on front foot after overnight safe haven gains on concerns over Iran nuke issue, with modest oil rise adding some inflation-fighting support, as did 3-month high silver, base metal uptick. Expected to find resistance from current levels strengthening to 100-day moving average at $632, says ScotiaMocatta; adds "the metal needs to close above 632 dollars in order to start forcing the bears to cover their positions." (JAD)


----------



## nizar

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Well, maybe I'm wrong Nizar, but golds 'safe haven' status seems alive and well to me. You only need to watch the POG everytime something dramatic happens around the world. Or, am I wrong, and it does nothing? When US$ crashes aren't world banks going to be putting their money into gold and Euros?




I agree very much that the price of gold will increase in times of geopolitical tensions or due to any fall in USD. Agree 100%. What im saying though, is if gold price rises but GLOBAL STOCKMARKETS crash (as u mentioned in your previous post in which my initial reply was to) then gold STOCKS will also tumble as stocks will be sold off NON-SELECTIVELY

Or do u really think that while XJO crumbles, that becoz price of gold rises, then LHG and other goldies will fire?

Recession means that there will less demand for the metal itself so thats why i think if there is a recession globally then stockmarkets will generally fall and even gold stocks will not be spared

Thoughts?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> I agree very much that the price of gold will increase in times of geopolitical tensions or due to any fall in USD. Agree 100%. What im saying though, is if gold price rises but GLOBAL STOCKMARKETS crash (as u mentioned in your previous post in which my initial reply was to) then gold STOCKS will also tumble as stocks will be sold off NON-SELECTIVELY
> 
> Or do u really think that while XJO crumbles, that becoz price of gold rises, then LHG and other goldies will fire?
> 
> Recession means that there will less demand for the metal itself so thats why i think if there is a recession globally then stockmarkets will generally fall and even gold stocks will not be spared
> 
> Thoughts?




Probably depends on the severity and how widespread the recession is. Worst case recession/depression, I agree, everything will be smashed. There will be much reduced demand. Chindians will still be buying probably. And the Italians.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

LHG looks to be breaking up now. Up 3+% to $3.09 now.  

Probably tracking gold a bit, which was up overnight, but I have noticed that LHG is a bit of a barometer on the market sentiment for the POG. Perhaps punters are tipping POG to be on the rise. 

Could be just the Iran thing too, whcih could blow over shortly. Or, blow up!


----------



## scsl

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				grunt said:
			
		

> upward breakout fri or mon.a bit of georges crazy sabre ratling should do the trick.



I have to admit grunt, you picked that one pretty well! It was quite fascinating to witness the effectiveness of the technical and charting analysis that followed his post which saw several of you in unison as to the future direction of the sp. I have bought into OXR already and LHG now looks quite convincing, particularly if it can continue to rise and hold this level. 

Any thoughts on where LHG is headed?

Cheers,
scsl


----------



## grunt

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I'll stick my neck out and say $4 by the end of the month.That's based on similar breakouts moving up by 30 to 40%.Also waiting for gold to break out of the same pennet to be sure.Crazy George is pretty reliable in stirring the pot and pushing the price of gold(deficet-afganistan-iraq-nth korea-iran-syria-etc etc etc). Kennas will probaly have a better forcast on this-he's definately more acurate than me.


----------



## NettAssets

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

it really seems to be in for the long haul

Has cleared the minor resistance at 3.13 OK now has only a bit of turbulence from the  gap down between 3.35 and 3.50.

can it find a new high before month end?

NA


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				NettAssets said:
			
		

> it really seems to be in for the long haul
> 
> Has cleared the minor resistance at 3.13 OK now has only a bit of turbulence from the  gap down between 3.35 and 3.50.
> 
> can it find a new high before month end?
> 
> NA




Nope.


----------



## NettAssets

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Sussinct.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				NettAssets said:
			
		

> Sussinct.




BSG when you last talked about LHG a few weeks back and PNA at its POR last week (already tried and tested the week before).

Profits realised would equate to LHG's SP at $3.75, in a third of the timeframe.

Strong stocks are the ones that spike with volume or buck the market trend.

LHG has awful spikes and chronic sideways action, why trade it.

As for your quote?, whats it mean.


----------



## NettAssets

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Sussinct ?  That would mean  short and to the point


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				NettAssets said:
			
		

> Sussinct ?  That would mean  short and to the point




O.K., as you probably figured I've traded LHG. I was stuck in for nearly three weeks to make a crappy 5%. BSG I'm in long and its proven to be a much better punt than LHG.


----------



## NettAssets

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

probably right - Im trading this with options so the leverage is a bit better.
Up 19% since the 24th when I took a bath with the bull puts.
I will put a no retrace trailing stop on at 20% if it gets there.
Wish there was an easy way to do it but I have to follow the action manually.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				NettAssets said:
			
		

> probably right - Im trading this with options so the leverage is a bit better.
> Up 19% since the 24th when I took a bath with the bull puts.
> I will put a no retrace trailing stop on at 20% if it gets there.
> Wish there was an easy way to do it but I have to follow the action manually.




O.K., as before all the best John.


----------



## jovialTrader

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

LHG merged with Ballarat Gold. What effect will this have on the SP? 

A good time for such an announcement esp. the price of commodities are higher overnite...

A good day...

JT


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Bearish it seems, unless BGF starts rising, arbitrage players will sell LHG and buy BGF well there were today it seems.


----------



## Mofra

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

This news could be the panacea for ST/MT for LHG, to have it finally travel outside of its recent range.

It seems LHG have made a strategic direction to enhance their reserve & production capacity however at the same time the fundies will probably include some development risk in thier calculations of what they believe to be the intrinsic value on the stock.

Some of us care less of the direction than the opportunity to have another highly volatile code with relatively liquid ETOs running with it


----------



## The Mint Man

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

hey people,
I have been away for 2 weeks ...... over this short time LHG had gone up to around $3.10 and back down under $2.80 (currently at $2.74) they had also announced a merger. 
A bit seems to be going on at LHG lately.

So my question is,
*short, medium and long term - where do you see LHG heading and why?*

cheers


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				The Mint Man said:
			
		

> hey people,
> I have been away for 2 weeks ...... over this short time LHG had gone up to around $3.10 and back down under $2.80 (currently at $2.74) they had also announced a merger.
> A bit seems to be going on at LHG lately.
> 
> So my question is,
> *short, medium and long term - where do you see LHG heading and why?*
> 
> cheers




Short term pain bedding down BGF, which I personally think was a mistake. What do they need a crummy 1.3m oz for. They should have bought EMP, or OGD, or even BDG after the recent sharp fall. 

Medium to long term winner. Will be back above $3.00 in not too distant future once gold recovers.

(Note: author is a long term gold bull   )


----------



## The Mint Man

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



> What do they need a crummy 1.3m oz for



I actually thought the same, however they are claiming a 9Moz potential. what do you make of that?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				The Mint Man said:
			
		

> I actually thought the same, however they are claiming a 9Moz potential. what do you make of that?




I really hope there is 9m in there but I reckon 9m is a complete pluck. 

BGF don't know how much is in there due to the 'nuggety' nature of the mineralisation. It could be anything between 1.3 and 20 m for all anyone knows.

Now, 20m would be nice! 

I wouldn't be surprised if LHG buy something else shortly. With the cash they are now generating they have the potential to become a multi mine company. Hopefully they pick something I already own next time.


----------



## sleeper88

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

well i think LHG made the wrong decision in picking BGF, it prove very costly to them


----------



## Mofra

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				sleeper88 said:
			
		

> well i think LHG made the wrong decision in picking BGF, it prove very costly to them



Costly in what way? 

No further financial details are available, unless you're talkign about the share price - and I dare say executives don't make such large decisions based on the ST share price.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I've got a gut feeling (very well researched and qualified opinion) that LHG is going to turn the corner shortly. I think the market is starting to factor in a lower $US after the US mid term elections which (in theory) will result in a stronger gold price. I've been reading a few reports around saying this is going to happen, and therefore, of course, will. Maybe.   

LHG has been bouncing from support and resistance lines over the past 6 months with each time it hits the BB on either side bounces off. It's just hit the bottom, plus the 200d MA, plus is on a significant support line. Even with the (what I think) negativities surrounding the BGF bail out, I reckon it's going to bounce up, and by the time it is getting to the next resistance level, it'll be around the time POG should be rising in response to $US sell off. This will be the catalyst to send LHG though previous resistance and on to all time highs in Dec/Jan. 

Well, that's my attempt to be Yogi. I don't normally like putting time frames on things, but I've just got this feeling.........he, he.


----------



## dubiousinfo

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

The biggest drawback that faces Lihir is its management. Despite this I will continue to hold as the market just seems to love this stock when POG moves, plus I think there is still a chance of a takeover.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Big volume on LHG this am. Bouncing. he he.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Good ann from LHG this am. Possibly the first time they haven't come out with some bad news.....market should like that. Gold up $6.00 too should see it up a few % I reckon.


----------



## spitrader1

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Good ann from LHG this am. Possibly the first time they haven't come out with some bad news.....market should like that. Gold up $6.00 too should see it up a few % I reckon.



whats good about it??


----------



## spitrader1

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I've got a gut feeling (very well researched and qualified opinion) that LHG is going to turn the corner shortly. I think the market is starting to factor in a lower $US after the US mid term elections which (in theory) will result in a stronger gold price. I've been reading a few reports around saying this is going to happen, and therefore, of course, will. Maybe.
> 
> LHG has been bouncing from support and resistance lines over the past 6 months with each time it hits the BB on either side bounces off. It's just hit the bottom, plus the 200d MA, plus is on a significant support line. Even with the (what I think) negativities surrounding the BGF bail out, I reckon it's going to bounce up, and by the time it is getting to the next resistance level, it'll be around the time POG should be rising in response to $US sell off. This will be the catalyst to send LHG though previous resistance and on to all time highs in Dec/Jan.
> 
> Well, that's my attempt to be Yogi. I don't normally like putting time frames on things, but I've just got this feeling.........he, he.




well done on a great chart....im looking at big charts now, the chart that you have here, do you pay for that or just use the free service


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				spitrader1 said:
			
		

> whats good about it??




I thought it was because they were confirming a lot of previous guidance, which they normally don't do. Normally, they say problem 1, problem 2, etc resulting in lower output. By what they said I thought it was all good, but by the reports I've read on the ann since, seems it's not so good. sp down accordingly.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				spitrader1 said:
			
		

> well done on a great chart....im looking at big charts now, the chart that you have here, do you pay for that or just use the free service




The base chart is free, with the basic indicators. (macd, volume, etc) To draw on it you need to save it as a giff file and then open with paint. Draw on the chart and then save as giff again, then post onto the site.


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> The base chart is free, with the basic indicators. (macd, volume, etc) To draw on it you need to save it as a giff file and then open with paint. Draw on the chart and then save as giff again, then post onto the site.



Wouldn't it be a whole lot easier to go out and get some charting software Kennas? Doing what you've just described must take an awful long time!


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				professor_frink said:
			
		

> Wouldn't it be a whole lot easier to go out and get some charting software Kennas? Doing what you've just described must take an awful long time!




Probably. I like doing it though. It's fun.   

Doesn't take me too long now. Makes me look at the charts more critically too.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Fat Prophets came out with a buy on this last night, but UBS downgraded them.

0850 [Dow Jones]STOCK CALL: UBS downgrades Lihir Gold (LHG.AU) to neutral from buy on lower production and rising costs. UBS slashes FY06 earnings forecast by 43% on lower production and FY07 and FY08 by 18% on lower gold forecasts. Says lowering of production forecast could halt the momentum the company has gained from finally meeting targets. "We do not expect to see Lihir outperform its gold peers in the near term," UBS says. Reduces price target to A$3.40 from A$3.80. (APW)

Still price target $3.40 v current $2.75. Enough room for me.

LHG hitting 200d ma, which indicates a reason to top up. Still sitting on pretty strong support line with not too much down side if gold stays steady. Resistance a bit choppy/mixed. Can't see a real downward trend now, although my eyes might be biased.


----------



## spitrader1

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Fat Prophets came out with a buy on this last night, but UBS downgraded them.
> 
> 0850 [Dow Jones]STOCK CALL: UBS downgrades Lihir Gold (LHG.AU) to neutral from buy on lower production and rising costs. UBS slashes FY06 earnings forecast by 43% on lower production and FY07 and FY08 by 18% on lower gold forecasts. Says lowering of production forecast could halt the momentum the company has gained from finally meeting targets. "We do not expect to see Lihir outperform its gold peers in the near term," UBS says. Reduces price target to A$3.40 from A$3.80. (APW)
> 
> Still price target $3.40 v current $2.75. Enough room for me.
> 
> LHG hitting 200d ma, which indicates a reason to top up. Still sitting on pretty strong support line with not too much down side if gold stays steady. Resistance a bit choppy/mixed. Can't see a real downward trend now, although my eyes might be biased.




good info kennas. i bought in yesterday at 2.75 for the record


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				spitrader1 said:
			
		

> good info kennas. i bought in yesterday at 2.75 for the record




Yeah, I just picked up a few more at $2.73.


----------



## spitrader1

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Yeah, I just picked up a few more at $2.73.



nice little move from 73 kennas (lhg now at 2.80)...good buying.


----------



## spitrader1

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				spitrader1 said:
			
		

> nice little move from 73 kennas (lhg now at 2.80)...good buying.



should be a good day kennas with gold at 620 (8 week high) for the LHG faithfull


----------



## SevenFX

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Hi Guys,

Bit of a Green question...

Even though gold is up, which has been some time since last this high, will the dow being down near 50pts hold lhg back and moreso the xjo dragging lhg down.

I have seen both seneraios played out with opposite outcomes, hence my q.


Thanks
SevenFX


----------



## spitrader1

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				SevenFX said:
			
		

> Hi Guys,
> 
> Bit of a Green question...
> 
> Even though gold is up, which has been some time since last this high, will the dow being down near 50pts hold lhg back and moreso the xjo dragging lhg down.
> 
> I have seen both seneraios played out with opposite outcomes, hence my q.
> 
> 
> Thanks
> SevenFX



have a look at what BHP and RIO and the other mining stocks did over night. the dow has little effect on our mining stocks...you see almost every day we buck the trend.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				SevenFX said:
			
		

> Hi Guys,
> 
> Bit of a Green question...
> 
> Even though gold is up, which has been some time since last this high, will the dow being down near 50pts hold lhg back and moreso the xjo dragging lhg down.
> 
> I have seen both seneraios played out with opposite outcomes, hence my q.
> 
> Thanks
> SevenFX




I see money going out of general market and into gold, uranium and still zinc. Maybe. XJO only down slightly really. On the other hand traders will be itching for a reason to take profits very soon. Perhaps a downdraft anywhere will be an excuse. Hhhmm, is that on the fence enough.


----------



## SevenFX

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Thanks for the take on LHG Guys


----------



## spitrader1

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				SevenFX said:
			
		

> Thanks for the take onLHG Guys



even though at the moment, its horribly wrong.


----------



## SevenFX

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				spitrader1 said:
			
		

> even though at the moment, its horribly wrong.




Yeah it is, but I know what you guys said made good sense, even though the market doesn't always make sense.

Or we would ALL be rich..    and their would be no workers....


----------



## spitrader1

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				SevenFX said:
			
		

> Yeah it is, but I know what you guys said made good sense, even though the market doesn't always make sense.
> 
> Or we would ALL be rich..    and their would be no workers....



correct, if the market was logical, we would be millionares


----------



## scsl

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I see money going out of general market and into gold, uranium and still zinc. Maybe. XJO only down slightly really. On the other hand traders will be itching for a reason to take profits very soon. Perhaps a downdraft anywhere will be an excuse. Hhhmm, is that on the fence enough.



Could it possibly be that investors and traders in Australia are fearing a pull-back in the Dow? Because that's what is really holding me back from buying into stocks. But then again, everytime I've expected one, the Dow just keeps going up.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				scsl said:
			
		

> Could it possibly be that investors and traders in Australia are fearing a pull-back in the Dow? Because that's what is really holding me back from buying into stocks. But then again, everytime I've expected one, the Dow just keeps going up.




I think so. The world has had a great run the past month or so. Will be looking for reasons to take profits.


----------



## Mofra

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

It is important to remember LHG is more influence by the POG than by the movement of the rest of the market, a situation which will only reinforce itself by the gradual reduction in LHG's hedgebook. I'm sure a number of people will be happy to hold some exposure to the POG given the current political climate.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Lihir had every excuse to be dumped yesterday along with everything else, but tested $3.00 again, and once again, failed. Done the same this morning. Just can't crack it. I've got the feeling that it will soon as it has some momentum with it. After $3.00, $3.10 is an important medium term resistance line, that if it breaks should keep heading on north. Probably needs POG to be going through $640 is for that to occur as I've mentioned somewhere before...


----------



## spitrader1

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Lihir had every excuse to be dumped yesterday along with everything else, but tested $3.00 again, and once again, failed. Done the same this morning. Just can't crack it. I've got the feeling that it will soon as it has some momentum with it. After $3.00, $3.10 is an important medium term resistance line, that if it breaks should keep heading on north. Probably needs POG to be going through $640 is for that to occur as I've mentioned somewhere before...



at least we were right when we bought some at 2.75 kennas. unfortunately i ditched them soon after.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				spitrader1 said:
			
		

> at least we were right when we bought some at 2.75 kennas. unfortunately i ditched them soon after.




'Any profit's a good profit',   don't you crazy brokers say? One of the first things my little bro (broker) told me. I use that psychology to assist when I make the blunder of not letting profits run, whatever that means!


----------



## spitrader1

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> 'Any profit's a good profit',   don't you crazy brokers say? One of the first things my little bro (broker) told me. I use that psychology to assist when I make the blunder of not letting profits run, whatever that means!



its so hard to take a stock off ure watchlist, even if you dont have a position in it. Its the age old mistake of falling in love with a stock. Its one of the biggest traps around.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

LHG is scared of $3.00.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Very scared of $3.00!! What's going on LHG? Gold is steady! It's not copper! You are a gold company!!!! You should therefore be steady, or going to where the POG is going  - UP!!! Eventually. Well, that's not confirmed yet, we still need to keep above $620. 

This chart is starting to infuriate me. Aaaahhhh! It's tracking up, down, sideways and no where at the moment. All you can predict is that it's going to range bewteen support and resistance lines. Then when it breaks through one for a moment, it goes back to another. 

Hopefully $2.85 proves to be support as it should. It spent a few days trying to crack it recently, which should now bw support.


----------



## Mofra

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Very scared of $3.00!! What's going on LHG? Gold is steady! It's not copper! You are a gold company!!!! You should therefore be steady, or going to where the POG is going  - UP!!!



It does seem to be a very well entrenched ST resistance line - LHG could be shaping up as a classic volume dirven breakout - might trumpet a move a day or two prior to a serious movement, to be exaserbated by people trading the pennant break.


----------



## zed327

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Kennas i believe the last wiggle in the tail before the enevitable break-out occurs. My estimation is within the next 10 day's.Using the narrowing trianguler pattern that has formed using mid febuary's low and may's high to today's present price looks pretty clear on what about to happen. I believe it will break upwards but that is because i'm a very bullish on gold ( even more so on silver ). I don't hold lhg at the moment but it is looking very good for those that do.


----------



## The Mint Man

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Considering POG has come down under $620, how do you see LHG fairing over the next week or so?
Ive got my eye on them real close just waiting for them to come down a bit more then I'll buy..... Should have just bought at $2.72 2 weeks ago  

cheers


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				The Mint Man said:
			
		

> Considering POG has come down under $620, how do you see LHG fairing over the next week or so?
> Ive got my eye on them real close just waiting for them to come down a bit more then I'll buy..... Should have just bought at $2.72 2 weeks ago
> 
> cheers



Still might be a chance to get in there at around $2.70 MM. I'd wait and see where it goes for the minute. POG needs to get back above $620 for LHG to keep climbing. The support lines seen on the LHG chart are good points to be buying in the short term. (And selling at the resistance lines!) Gold hasn't started a new uptrend IMO yet so might be worth waiting. Just my opinion though. There's lots of opinions out there that gold is heading down, just need to balance them all out and make your own call.


----------



## Out Too Soon

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

This looks interesting, I don't hold but as you say Kennas "it all depends on the POG". If Gold does start to climb again I'm sure to be too late getting some Lihir. I'll watch for $2.7-something & gold price action.


----------



## The Mint Man

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Just didnt reach what I wanted to buy at...  
Anyone got some Chart Analysis on this? Golds at $628 atm.... spose Ill wait up to another week or so to see what happens

cheers


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

One thing you can count on: LHG bounces off the 200d am. Unusually high early volume today. I think punters are punting that gold is heading on up...


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Gold through $640, LHG through $3.00. More good new for gold tonight ($US weakness) and we'll find LHG hitting the sweet spot at about $3.10 which will be launch time, and Chicken will be backing his bloody truck up for this one.   

Having said that, I am not counting my chickens yet, as LHG has continued to disappoint me. Every time it gets to and almost through a resistance line it fails me.   

I have been saying for a little while that $3,10 is the critical level though. Gets through that and the balance of probs say it's in an uptrend again. I hope.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Time for LHG to fail me..... Broken through the magic $3.10 mark, for the minute. Gapped up quite a bit. Can it sustain the rage. POG obviously the driver and I think it's in a new uptrend now. Onwards to $3.50 again hopefully.


----------



## scsl

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Time for LHG to fail me..... Broken through the magic $3.10 mark, for the minute. Gapped up quite a bit. Can it sustain the rage. POG obviously the driver and I think it's in a new uptrend now. Onwards to $3.50 again hopefully.



Kennas, do you see LHG's decline in sp throughout the day as being in line with the gradual decline in the overall market? Or is LHG's recent strong run losing puff? And looking at your chart, will LHG sell off to about $2.90 - $3.00? I guess it all comes down to the gold price... which has had a near perfect diagonal rise since October 5. It will all depend on the factors you mentioned in the gold price thread.


----------



## justjohn

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

for what it is worth   i think it was a combination of POG & sliding market


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				scsl said:
			
		

> Kennas, do you see LHG's decline in sp throughout the day as being in line with the gradual decline in the overall market? Or is LHG's recent strong run losing puff? And looking at your chart, will LHG sell off to about $2.90 - $3.00? I guess it all comes down to the gold price... which has had a near perfect diagonal rise since October 5. It will all depend on the factors you mentioned in the gold price thread.



Just opened a bit strongly I think. The gap up has been filled now and it still finished up 1 % on the day. POG finished down slightly after almost touching $650 ($649 I think) so could go anywhere Monday. Might depend on other economic data. While it holds over $3.00 I'm more bullish on it, clearing $3.10 ish, and holding above is very important. Previous strong resistance, both horizontal and down trend IMO.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				justjohn said:
			
		

> for what it is worth   i think it was a combination of POG & sliding market



POG was OK I thought, but overall market would have taken the shine off it.


----------



## nizar

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Just opened a bit strongly I think.





This is just how LHG moves.
I remember back in April/May, when gold would tack on like us$10/oz (over the weekends this was common), LHG would open up 3-4% higher but that as it. It would close around the same levels. You wouldnt make money off it intraday. 

I remember after watching a few weekends of this movement and i thought hey heres an idea, next friday i would buy maybe 50k worth of LHGs, and sell it on the monday, make about 2k (an easy 2k). Luckily i didnt coz thats when the correction started and i wouldve got taken to the cleaners!


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

This is breakout material now IMO. Holding above $3.10 which is the resistance point, and now trading at $3.15, which is my confirmation. Been there just for 2 days, so if it's there tomorrow, it's official to me! I'm topping up again.

All time high is my target before Christmas maybe. $US going down, and traditionally gold goes up in the lead in to Christmas apparantly.


----------



## vert

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

sure is kennas i jumped back on this morning after leaving lhg alone for a while, looks to be back to its old self and everyones favorite. 

would love to see it go to all times by chrissy, mmmm lots of turkey and beer


----------



## scsl

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> This is breakout material now IMO. Holding above $3.10 which is the resistance point, and now trading at $3.15, which is my confirmation. Been there just for 2 days, so if it's there tomorrow, it's official to me! I'm topping up again.
> 
> All time high is my target before Christmas maybe. $US going down, and traditionally gold goes up in the lead in to Christmas apparantly.



Has held above yesterday's close of $3.17 for majority of the day now, with above average volume of 26 million so far. 

Have you been topping up kennas? Also, would you mind giving your thoughts on the BSG thread? 

Thanks a lot,
scsl


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				scsl said:
			
		

> Has held above yesterday's close of $3.17 for majority of the day now, with above average volume of 26 million so far.
> 
> Have you been topping up kennas? Also, would you mind giving your thoughts on the BSG thread?
> 
> Thanks a lot,
> scsl



Sorry mate been on the road today and haven't been here. Will catch up tomorrow. cheers.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

If I may indulge for a moment and display all the resitance lines that LHG has recently broken through to get to where it is today. Probably qualifies as an outstanding breakout alert due to the amount of resistance this has had to break to get to it's current sp.

Having said that, will just take something abnormal for this to be crunched, like POG massive smashing overnight, or a mud slide on the island etc. So, nothing is ever certain, but technical traders will certainly be jumping all over this baby now.


----------



## 2020hindsight

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

rats lol - I tried to buy in at 3.21 - mustve got to the market at 4.00.01 pm   (that's my 4000 shares buy sitting there lol)
see what happens tonight i guess.   I can still pull out of that buy instruction I guess must watch tonight I guess.     

On the subject of buying gold at the moment - one would think that the Democrats taking both houses of washington politics - that the threat of USA going to war is surely reduced ??   

Maybe I'll pull the plug on that order first thing after all - (b4 market opens).


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				2020hindsight said:
			
		

> rats lol - I tried to buy in at 3.21 - mustve got to the market at 4.00.01 pm   (that's my 4000 shares buy sitting there lol)
> see what happens tonight i guess.   I can still pull out of that buy instruction I guess must watch tonight I guess.
> 
> On the subject of buying gold at the moment - one would think that the Democrats taking both houses of washington politics - that the threat of USA going to war is surely reduced ??
> 
> Maybe I'll pull the plug on that order first thing after all - (b4 market opens).



2020, It still could pull back in the next couple of days, but this recent action has meant that 'technically' it can now push though the previous strong resistance more easily. Still a chance to catch it on the next inevitable dip.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Gold falling under $640 but LHG holds up. It actually went up when POG went down. Unheard of. Well, maybe now and then, but this is great for LHG holders. Very short term support maybe building at $3.20 with $3.10 looking like a possible longer term line.

As always, pending unusual events around the place....  

Who sold under $2.90??  : 

Settle kennas, early days in gold re-emergence.


----------



## coyotte

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Some unresolved GAPS in both charts

US Volume do's not seem to be keeping relative pace with Ozz and they are supposed to be the ones with the $$$$ problems not us ??? 


Smell a rat here !

Cheers


----------



## scsl

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

ABN Amro are very bullish on LHG, with the breakout of the pennant being called 'a golden breakout' - see their chart on the link below. They look at it in terms of Fibonacci.

I exited my long LHG CFDs today at $3.24, as I think there'll be a pullback pretty soon. As kennas said, the next inevitable dip will be when I'll be going long again. 

(dated Dec 5th)
http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliWarrantsPage.asp?PageID={C9020A58-44AD-482F-ADEC-0968F1C987AC}


----------



## vert

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

i jumped ship yesterday at 3.20 on cfd, thought gold had a nice gain and would consolidate, didnt expect lhg to run like it did today but now think pog is confirming my sale, should be able to get back in at a lower price in next couple days.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				vert said:
			
		

> i jumped ship yesterday at 3.20 on cfd, thought gold had a nice gain and would consolidate, didnt expect lhg to run like it did today but now think pog is confirming my sale, should be able to get back in at a lower price in next couple days.




Good move, looks like gold taking a break in line with $US recovery. Wonder how long that will last? LHG should come off accordingly too, unless the punters are still very optomistic the gold bull is back. Some might think this a buying opportunity.


----------



## coyotte

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

POG ,HUI, XAU, TSX, and GOX all UP !

LIHR 3 consecertive days with a LOWER CLOSE !


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> POG ,HUI, XAU, TSX, and GOX all UP !
> 
> LIHR 3 consecertive days with a LOWER CLOSE !



Had a good run the past month Coyotte. Just consolidating imo. Still reliant on gold. 

My Kitco chart has gold going down the past 3 trading days?? Those 3 days maybe coincide with LHG dropping... Gold only recovered a bit last night.

Here is the 3 days before last night:


----------



## vert

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

back in close yesterday, paying off nicely now 3.17. gold has had a little sell off now going for break off 650 and then 700 by christmas, thats my call anyway.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				vert said:
			
		

> back in close yesterday, paying off nicely now 3.17. gold has had a little sell off now going for break off 650 and then 700 by christmas, thats my call anyway.



Well, I'll hold you to that. I'm tipping $650. Whoever is closer is owed a beer for every dollar closer!


----------



## vert

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

your on!


----------



## justjohn

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

starting to look value at $3 :


----------



## coyotte

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

it will be better value at 2.92 ( gap filled )

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

$3.00 turning into very good support. Might not get it under that in the near future. Pending surprises.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Something about to happen with LHG?. Solid support today on good volume in light of pullback in POG. An attractive takeover target again??


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Something about to happen with LHG?. Solid support today on good volume in light of pullback in POG. An attractive takeover target again??



I was thinking the same thing Doom. 10 mil shares traded and the stock holding up on an $11 slide in POG. The stock was up a percent this am....Extremely unusual for LHG, it normally tracks POG. Not sure about a takeover though due to the BGF thingy. Makes it look less attractive to me.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

kennas, I reckon the BGF merger is a big positive as it spreads the risk around, LHG will not be a one mine entity anymore. Any costs will be well and truly absorbed with the coming gold price appreciation. 
If anything, it makes it more attractive as a takeover target as any suitor will get 2 mines without any of the paperwork etc.
LHG is showing solid support around $3.00, as is the gold price around $615. I am getting a strange feeling that something is going to happen soon that will put a rocket under the POG. Get set and hold on for the ride


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> kennas, I reckon the BGF merger is a big positive as it spreads the risk around, LHG will not be a one mine entity anymore. Any costs will be well and truly absorbed with the coming gold price appreciation.
> If anything, it makes it more attractive as a takeover target as any suitor will get 2 mines without any of the paperwork etc.
> LHG is showing solid support around $3.00, as is the gold price around $615. I am getting a strange feeling that something is going to happen soon that will put a rocket under the POG. Get set and hold on for the ride



I'll be topping up on this if POG does make it's way back over $640. That has been my trigger for a while. It didn't hold above long enough last push....


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Looks like a false breakout (again   ). Although it could be oversold a bit as POG is back past $625 tonight, so if it holds this session we could see LHG make a comeback on Monday. Back to the bottom of the channel. Next attempt at $3.25 should be interesting.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Anyone else seriously considering shorting this one tomorrow?


----------



## coyotte

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Anyone else seriously considering shorting this one tomorrow?




After the 3.16 gap is filled 

Closed my SHORT @ the 2.92 Gap
see post 188

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Anyone else seriously considering shorting this one tomorrow?



I have, but I think I will wait to see how POG responds to the $600 mark. Some traders might see this as a buying opportunity. Maybe. If it breaks $600 then LHG will be vulnerable of course. Will open gap down Monday, but I'm not sure if it will continue to slide after that. Might depend how POG opens in Asia??


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> After the 3.16 gap is filled
> 
> Closed my SHORT @ the 2.92 Gap
> see post 188
> 
> Cheers



Still might go further though. Lower gold price and the SP not anywhere near clear support.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Might be a case of the baby getting thrown out with the bathwater? Funds getting confused & putting gold in the commodities basket (case?). The fundamentals are still there, looking for a dip to 2.78 (long tail day?) then bounce back on Monday.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Still might go further though. Lower gold price and the SP not anywhere near clear support.



There's some POG spt at $600 and LHG has hit 200 d ma and also approaching some upward support line. Not much though. SO, I think they are related to some degree. Perhaps I'm just seeing what I want.    (holding - last bought in around $2.75)


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> There's some POG spt at $600 and LHG has hit 200 d ma and also approaching some upward support line. Not much though. SO, I think they are related to some degree. Perhaps I'm just seeing what I want.    (holding - last bought in around $2.75)



Ah well, it's not on commsec's short list, so that solves my problem.


----------



## annalivia

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Like most gold stocks, Lihir's share price has taken a breather in recent months. This follows two years of firm gains during which prices more than quadrupled, hitting an all-time high of $3.64 during May. Encouragingly, consolidative pauses within long term upward trends commonly provide a base for the eventual resumption of the underlying trend. Patience my friends.


----------



## porkpie324

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I have never traded LHR but looking at the chart the sp price since May has oscilated between 2.70:3.20, making LHR an excellent CFD trader. LHR has a big resource base and a reasonably priced gold extraction so I have placed LHR in my CFD trading watch list. porkpie


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Well that wasn't as bad as I thought it would be, with LHG holding up reasonably well, closing at $2.87, low of $2.85. Also, POG is clawing it's way  back again, see if it holds in NY tonight. Now $609, up $4.10. I think 'the manipulators' saw an opportunity to bury gold along with other commodities (more of a currency these day's).


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Looks like a critical juncture for LHG around these levels ie at trendline support or breakdown. May have gotten caught up in the BDG fiasco as POG held steady?. Ready to enter on re-bound?.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Looks like a critical juncture for LHG around these levels ie at trendline support or breakdown. May have gotten caught up in the BDG fiasco as POG held steady?. Ready to enter on re-bound?.



I've got some mixed signals on this:

Broken down through 200d ma at about $2.90. Bearish
Broken through bottom of BB. A trading buy
MACD diverging going down through the signal line. Bearish
Oversold on the Slow Stochastic. Trading buy
Oversold on RSI but hasn't started to turn. ??

The sideways consolidation won't really be broken until it's broken $2.50 where there should be a last line of support. (high Jan, low Jul 06) 

Interesting that gold was steady but goldies came off. I think the market is being cautious and locking in some profits. Seems to be some gneral uncertainty out there.....


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

KCN got slammed today as well.  As with LHG there wasn't excessive volume either.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

kennas, how does it look with a 300 day ma, as I recall this is a good indicator with the POG, having bounced of that level in the past, when the 200 day has been breached?.

This could be healthy if it doesn't get caught up with the rest of the market too much, as I think the POG has with commodities. Needs time to resolve any short term weakness and allow fundamentals to re-gain the steering wheel. I noticed a story yesterday that the Indians are big buyers again at these levels, and open interest is leaving the POG wide open for a big re-bound ie underweight longs. Wouldn't take much to move POG higher from here.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> kennas, how does it look with a 300 day ma, as I recall this is a good indicator with the POG, having bounced of that level in the past, when the 200 day has been breached?.



I hadn't heard that before. I've used 200d for a little while which I have found to be a good support line normally. I've seen other people use 90d ma, but it's a bit more hit and miss. (would like to do a better study of the best psychological ma spt line!) 

This is the chart with 300d sma, which is still above my drop dead $2.50 line.


----------



## Ken

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

kennas

On 10 occassions I count.  LHG has had a fall since its big run up.

It looks a volatile stock.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Ken said:
			
		

> kennas
> 
> On 10 occassions I count.  LHG has had a fall since its big run up.
> 
> It looks a volatile stock.



Yes, everything goes up and down. Most commods have whipsawed. Not for the faint hearted. IMO it's still going up until it breaks down through $2.65 ish. Below that, its troubling.....


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Lihir just ann they have added 4.4 m oz au to their reserves. This is probably more than double what most mines have as their entire resourse!

They now have a tiny 23.6m oz au in reserves. 

Gold back up to $640, might be an ok day for LHG.   

Young Gun's CFDs on this will be looking ok.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I expect to see some action here soon re a takeover at these prices. With the upgrade, LHG is in the bargain category now, looking very attractive to the big boys.


----------



## Steveo

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Thoughts on their PE of around 58?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Steveo said:
			
		

> Thoughts on their PE of around 58?



Is damn high! Reason being they've been ramping up to full production at Lihir for some time and are still not really there. So, the future earnings are factored into the sp, along with an increased future POG. It's justified if gold goes to $700 and beyond. Maybe.


----------



## porkpie324

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

On rapidly expanding co a PE of 58 is nothing unusual OXR was on a PE higher than that at one time, what will tell is that the companies results reflect their projections, anyway I have opened a small long pos in LHG today. porkpie


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I assume the main factors any predator would be looking at is the resources and cost to produce, and sovereign risk, ie look at NEM's problems in Indonesia & Chile. LHG look pretty good for the first 2 and, being on an island, appears ok for sovereign risk. The main risk to the operations is volcanic activity. 23.6M oz's very attractive.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Nice set of figures this morning for LHG. Finally hitting the sweet spot.

Net profit up 445% to $53.4 million
• Construction projects close to commissioning
• +1 million ounce feasibility study announced
• Reserves increased 23% to 23.6 million ounces
• Ballarat merger proceeding to plan
• On track to achieve 800 – 830 kozs production in 2007

Should be re-rated after the figures are examined further by brokers etc.


----------



## porkpie324

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I hope your right doomy, still have my pos in LHR, up nicely on the an today, porkpie


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Nice set of figures this morning for LHG. Finally hitting the sweet spot.
> 
> Net profit up 445% to $53.4 million
> • Construction projects close to commissioning
> • +1 million ounce feasibility study announced
> • Reserves increased 23% to 23.6 million ounces
> • Ballarat merger proceeding to plan
> • On track to achieve 800 – 830 kozs production in 2007
> 
> Should be re-rated after the figures are examined further by brokers etc.



I think LHG are going to have to keep acquiring other junior/mid goldies, or they will become a TO target. The big producers have stated they are after advanced projects with over 2m oz au, and LHG have over 20m. The sovereign risk has been an issue, but it ´s been stated for years with no issue ever arrising. Perhaps NCM and LHG could merge to create a great Aussie goldie! They ´d have close to 80m oz au together.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Could be looking at a strong breakout for LHG this morning.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Could be looking at a strong breakout for LHG this morning.




And BSG.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> And BSG



Both charts are looking good.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Could be looking at a strong breakout for LHG this morning.




Hey chops,
Hope so, but for some reason, gold stocks are lagging the pog lately?. Hopefully they will start to play catch-up soon, LHG my preferred goldy for both production and takeover. Should be interesting day today as LHG approaches top of channel (again!!) at $3.20, see if it can break through . Good attempt yesterday but have to be happy with the gain on the day. May retrace a bit, then resume upwards?. Buy target of $3.16.
DD


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Hey chops,
> Hope so, but for some reason, gold stocks are lagging the pog lately?. Hopefully they will start to play catch-up soon, LHG my preferred goldy for both production and takeover. Should be interesting day today as LHG approaches top of channel (again!!) at $3.20, see if it can break through . Good attempt yesterday but have to be happy with the gain on the day. May retrace a bit, then resume upwards?. Buy target of $3.16.
> DD



I agree that if this does eventually break this very strong resistance line it could really jump. No target in mind. I think some will be switching out of NCM into this too, after their ann.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Hey chops,
> Hope so, but for some reason, gold stocks are lagging the pog lately?. Hopefully they will start to play catch-up soon, LHG my preferred goldy for both production and takeover. Should be interesting day today as LHG approaches top of channel (again!!) at $3.20, see if it can break through . Good attempt yesterday but have to be happy with the gain on the day. May retrace a bit, then resume upwards?. Buy target of $3.16.
> DD



It had a little peak at it, and then went back in its hidey hole. Volume is still good, so lets see if it can have another crack.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Failed again!   Not sure if the sp will re-trace back below $3 again in this cycle so will wait to see where it bottoms on Monday I guess. May get caught up in the commodities sell-off. Interesting day Monday


----------



## porkpie324

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Did my first LHR trade made 20c closed on Thursday, will see what happens next week now. porkpie


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Failed again!   Not sure if the sp will re-trace back below $3 again in this cycle so will wait to see where it bottoms on Monday I guess. May get caught up in the commodities sell-off. Interesting day Monday



I've been impressed with its price action today. Opened on its low, and has been steadily climbing all day, against the POG. And it looks as if it's going to close on its high. Maybe another proper run at 3.20 tomorrow?


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Why wont you budge? Lol!


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Why wont you budge? Lol!




When it finally does it should be quite spectacular - it's been moving sideways for soooo long. So far it's been profitable for traders to trade the range so until the gold price makes a clear breakout I guess that's what will
continue to happen.


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Wouldn't like to be short LHG now. If the POG can stay above $660 for several days then traders should have most of their doubts cleared about which direction the price is headed.


----------



## rederob

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Lihir continues to be "marked down" because of its local Victorian gold mine acquisition.
However, any continuation of higher gold prices will see the acquisition as a real positive due to the high reserves and capacity to generate ongoing substantial profits.
Lihir's PNG mine is one of the few that can reduce/contain its cash costs due to its geothermal power plant, while most others will have higher energy cost imputs.
I wonder if BHP is looking at adding gold to its list of metals?


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

There may be only a small window of time to make a move on Lihir at current price levels.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Jadefox said:
			
		

> There may be only a small window of time to make a move on Lihir at current price levels.



Yes. It looks to be breaking out right at this moment.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Yes. It looks to be breaking out right at this moment.




Trading at highest prices since the 15th of May last year.


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

LHR might have broken out...but is it too late to buy into??

Its got a good track record for taking a bit of a dive after each of its previuos highs.

Im sure the merger has made the difference......but too many times Ive bought on a high only to see it come crashing down in the weeks to come.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I'd really like to see it go further but I've got a feeling there might be a correction in the general market looming that will drag gold stocks back a bit, in an otherwise bullish gold market. Any corrections back for LHG now are last chance opportunities, higher lows & higher highs, as long as the pog keeps going, which may falter a bit tonight?.


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

One scenario might be a move to 3.40 or so then a pull back to the break out point at around 3.26. If it can establish a low on top of the old high then that would be an ideal buy or 'add to position' point.
Agree with Doom that any pullbacks are buying opportunities from here provided that the POG maintains its upward momentum.


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Well ive set to buy at $3.23...dunno if thats a stupid idea or not, but I have this bad habit of believing that im going to miss the boat  

Perhaps thats y 4/5 of my stocks are now less than what i bought them for

But from what Ive read...Lihir is reguarded as a pretty safe investment...so even if it does go a bit sour in the short term...hopefully it will pay off in the long term


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Looks like it will pull back a bit today. A stronger dollar may be a problem for the gold uptrend - along with Bernake speeches this week.

Jim Sinclair writes today:

"Since most of these indicators  have come modestly positive on balance, the dollar market is placing its bet on that continuing by rising. Gold is off slightly while gold shares remain in the tank. 

We have a bull trend in gold above a major break out, a bear phase in the absolute majority of gold shares and a positive dollar market. Now there is a mix that could give anyone heartburn.

There is no question in my mind we will trade up to and possibly beyond $800 which in retrospect will be seen to have been part of this upwards move now.

I would tend to take a contrarian approach to gold. I would under no basis chase the price of gold up as a buyer - I prefer to buy gold on reaction. I do not buy strength. We have a perfect indicator now in the Platform for if gold is to deny the shares it needs only to remain above that level.

We are going for three closes above the Platform.

Be careful in your trading activities as Hedge Fund and Political readers have a perversity in their trading actions. Please do not chase strength with buys. Here we buy weakness. Sit still on breakouts and sell strength, TA guided.

My strategy is to hold my speculative trading gold position, stopped slightly below the Platform.

To Investors we are going to $750 – $887.50 and $1650."


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Jadefox said:
			
		

> We have a bull trend in gold above a major break out, a bear phase in the absolute majority of gold shares and a positive dollar market. Now there is a mix that could give anyone heartburn.




Hi Jadefox,

How do you assess that we are in a positive dollar market?  To my estimation even at even at the 1.30 level the EUR/USD cross rate is at near all time EUR high.


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Hi Gorilla,

I just look at the US Dollar index (DX) which has been moving up since early December and which moved back up over 85 last night. No serious damage has been done to the uptrend. A move below 84.25 would indicate a reversal of fortunes.

That quote was taken from Jim Sinclair's website and referred to economic reports/indicators which have been mildly positive recently:

"Since most of these indicators have come modestly positive on balance, the dollar market is placing its bet on that continuing by rising." 

I still feel that the uptrend in Gold and LHG will continue and possibly accelerate. I currently hold LHG calls though and am aware of my bias.
I'm also aware of the current large commercial short position.


----------



## scsl

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

This was in The Age Investor liftout on Sunday:



> [Fat Prophets] co-director Angus Geddes likes Lihir Gold, which he expects to double in price to $7.30 this year


----------



## IFocus

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

The chart shows an inside day today on low volume which unfortunately is far from bullish for the short term.


----------



## haemitite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				IFocus said:
			
		

> The chart shows an inside day today on low volume which unfortunately is far from bullish for the short term.



 For those who place much emphasis on charts perhaps


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Finally through the resistance at 3.30. Now buyers are outstripping sellers... and we could see some movement now.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				IFocus said:
			
		

> The chart shows an inside day today on low volume which unfortunately is far from bullish for the short term.




Why do you interpret this as "far from bullish"?


----------



## IFocus

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Hi Gorilla,

The buyers came out on Monday fired up but Tuesday there was no follow through and the result was an inside day on much lower volume.  

Inside days can signal the start of a change in sentiment in the market and form into reversals. Given this behaviour around the top of the current range it may be not be a breakout but simply a new top and a reversal forming.

 LHG’s price bangs around a fair bit so one day is not all that significant but this behaviour to me is a heads up given its location.

Hopefully it’s a breakout and we see a close soon above Monday

Focus


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				IFocus said:
			
		

> Hi Gorilla,
> 
> The buyers came out on Monday fired up but Tuesday there was no follow through and the result was an inside day on much lower volume.
> 
> Inside days can signal the start of a change in sentiment in the market and form into reversals. Given this behaviour around the top of the current range it may be not be a breakout but simply a new top and a reversal forming.
> 
> LHG’s price bangs around a fair bit so one day is not all that significant but this behaviour to me is a heads up given its location.
> 
> Hopefully it’s a breakout and we see a close soon above Monday
> 
> Focus



I'm thinking it was more consolidation after the initial breakout. Considering the price seemed to be capped and manipulated all throughout today, I'm thinking it was consolidation.

You just can't have the sort of announcements that LHG had without eventually having a positive impace on the share price. Big volume at the end of the day, a very bullish close. I wonder how long this stock is going to be kept down for before it goes crazy...


----------



## IFocus

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Hi Chops

Yes today LHG fired, nice break out and full steam ahead with nice volume so much for my short term outlook yesterday.

Focus


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				IFocus said:
			
		

> Hi Chops
> 
> Yes today LHG fired, nice break out and full steam ahead with nice volume so much for my short term outlook yesterday.



I understand the previous analysis. If the rumour about the large short position is true, I'd say the big players were keeping it steady so they could get out of it.


----------



## the barry

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Jadefox said:
			
		

> Hi Gorilla,
> 
> I just look at the US Dollar index (DX) which has been moving up since early December and which moved back up over 85 last night. No serious damage has been done to the uptrend. A move below 84.25 would indicate a reversal of fortunes.
> 
> That quote was taken from Jim Sinclair's website and referred to economic reports/indicators which have been mildly positive recently:
> 
> "Since most of these indicators have come modestly positive on balance, the dollar market is placing its bet on that continuing by rising."
> 
> I still feel that the uptrend in Gold and LHG will continue and possibly accelerate. I currently hold LHG calls though and am aware of my bias.
> I'm also aware of the current large commercial short position.




Can you please elaborate on the large short commercial short position. I find it hard to believe that with the current rise in the share price and the rising gold price that anyone commercial would have a current large short position.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				the barry said:
			
		

> Can you please elaborate on the large short commercial short position. I find it hard to believe that with the current rise in the share price and the rising gold price that anyone commercial would have a current large short position.



The SP was being manipulated quite clearly today. It makes sense to me...


----------



## the barry

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> The SP was being manipulated quite clearly today. It makes sense to me...




Sorry, im knew to the whole share game, but if someone was short and the share price went up today, who was doing the manipulation and for what purpose? Wouldn't they want to manipulate the share price down to cover their position? Its just i hold lhg and am interested in your thoughts.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				the barry said:
			
		

> Sorry, im knew to the whole share game, but if someone was short and the share price went up today, who was doing the manipulation and for what purpose? Wouldn't they want to manipulate the share price down to cover their position? Its just i hold lhg and am interested in your thoughts.



If they were part of an institution for instance, they may put large numbers of shares on the sell side, to effect the ratio, even if they are unlikely to be sold. It may not reverse the price (as with LHG today, buying was very strong), but it may limit the damage, and give time to reverse positions.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Approved (ASX) net Short Sale positions as at end of day 13-Feb-2007


LHG....LIHIR GOLD LIMITED....Short .vol  21,295,834....Short%  1.65%...


----------



## reece55

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Hey Kauri...

Is there anywhere else apart from the ASX site that this information can be acquired. I just haven't been able to find historical data for % short sold - wanted to use it in a model.

By the way, wouldn't want to be the chimp holding this short sell - not a happy trade I wouldn't have thought!

Cheers
Reece


----------



## Kauri

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				reece55 said:
			
		

> Hey Kauri...
> 
> Is there anywhere else apart from the ASX site that this information can be acquired. I just haven't been able to find historical data for % short sold - wanted to use it in a model.
> 
> By the way, wouldn't want to be the chimp holding this short sell - not a happy trade I wouldn't have thought!
> 
> Cheers
> Reece




   Reece..
            It's the only place Ive found.... don't know how accurate it is, but is interesting sometimes. I had 6 months of it saved labourisly into a spreadsheet to see if it was usefull in trading but it dissapeared into a black hole after a computer meltdown...   
       Cheers...Kauri


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Reece..
> It's the only place Ive found.... don't know how accurate it is, but is interesting sometimes. I had 6 months of it saved labourisly into a spreadsheet to see if it was usefull in trading but it dissapeared into a black hole after a computer meltdown...
> Cheers...Kauri




Not bad, I wonder if gold will ever crash?

*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-12-07 11.9 27.7 126.7% 
Year Ending 30-12-08 13.6 24.3 14.3% 

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 5.2 11.9 13.6 12.3 
DPS 0.0 0.0 2.6 5.1 * 

thx

MS


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				the barry said:
			
		

> Can you please elaborate on the large short commercial short position. I find it hard to believe that with the current rise in the share price and the rising gold price that anyone commercial would have a current large short position.




My sincere apologies for not clarifying in my post that I was referring to the
commitment of traders report for the gold futures market ( info at http://www.cftc.gov/). Commercials (producers, bullion banks, etc) added to their short positions recently.

It's fairly widely recognized that the gold market has a history of being manipulated and that a large commercial short position often precedes a pullback or price decline. (hope it's not the case this time)

As the post was mainly concerning the US dollar and its influence on the  gold price I thought that it would be understood as referring to the metal.
Reading it back I can see how it could have been misleading.

The move up today was reassuring - let's see if it can clear the old high and head into blue sky!


----------



## Kauri

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> Not bad, I wonder if gold will ever crash?
> 
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




   Not wanting a crash, but 640ish would be nice.....

        cxmdar

         Kauri


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

LHG cracking $3.25 was very important IMO. Gold cracking $660 puts it in an uptrend since Sep 06 with a minor hickup in Jan 07. Would like to see it test $660 ish for confirmation. This damn holiday is killing me!!!


----------



## vicb

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

There have been some heavy buy recommendations that have come out in support for this stock in the last 3 weeks.
With one stock reporting group bring out 3 buy recommendations in the last 2 weeks.
While we may question some of the buy recommendations brought out by some of these brokers, where there is smoke there is fire.
I bought more of LHG for a short term trade at $3.18 simple on the chart.
We all may read our charts very differently but the chart looks very promising to me. 
The break above the $3.20 line looks to be a good forward direction.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Another nice gap up this morning with a million in volume in the first 15 mins. Looking at the chart... it might hang here for a while, and if it goes through, get to about 3.60. What do others think?


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Alan Hull has a target of $5.00 provided that clear breakout conditions are met in both share price and price of gold.

http://www2.shawstockbroking.com.au...PageID={92425D6A-81AC-436E-85BF-B573F2585A62}

Another possibility is a 0.618 extention of the retracement from 364 down to 234. This would give a target of 4.44.

$US dollar moved down fast last night and broke support. This should be good
for the gold price and LHG. If it accelerates down gold should break upwards
out of its recent range.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

LHG looks weak right now though. Buyers have totally dried up.

If the gold price wasn't still looking good, I'd be trying to get out.

Hmmm, anyone know when they are due to report?


----------



## Rafa

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I think the easy money has been made in the last few weeks for LHG...
I would think there is a fair bit of resistance to overcome to get to its all time high close of 3.60....

The POG will have big factor in influencing whether breaking 3.60 is a breeze or a long slog...

After that, it should be smoother sailing.


PS: I don't hold.


----------



## scsl

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> LHG looks weak right now though. Buyers have totally dried up.
> 
> If the gold price wasn't still looking good, I'd be trying to get out.
> 
> Hmmm, anyone know when they are due to report?



Full year results are out Wed 21 Feb.


----------



## jimmy1979

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I was reading the paper on Sunday. 

Fat Prophets have a 12 month price target of $7.50 for Lihir Gold. I can't see how Lihir will reach that target price within 12 months, but hey I hope it does.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

My short term indicators are saying re-tracement tomorrow or early next week (ie buying op?), but longer term looks like we won't see $3.00 for a while?.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				scsl said:
			
		

> Full year results are out Wed 21 Feb.



How are you able to find this info out?


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> How are you able to find this info out?



http://www.lihir.com.pg/asp/index.asp?pgid=10720


----------



## Kauri

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> How are you able to find this info out?



 Chops..
  This page is helpfull for finding most ASX company dates due in the future...

http://www2.shawstockbroking.com.au/clientservices/documents/generaldocuments/Reporting%20Season_1H_2007_date.pdf


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

LHG tested the breakout level today. If it can hold this level and form a small bass it would be quite bullish. If it falls back into the previous range and fails to bounce fairly quickly then that would weaken the possibility of a strong advance.

Gold still looking strong - holding the tight range.

Indian gold ETF to open March 1st.

Have a great weekend!


----------



## IFocus

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Hi Jadefox

This will be my 3rd attempt looking at LHG from the chart perspective the last two were well off the mark so here goes for three out of three.

I am thinking the same as you but there is also down side risk (as always) as the selling volume rises the question is have enough sellers been washed out yet or are there still weak hands to be shaken out. The gold price maybe enough for sellers to hold and buyers to enter I guess Mondays price action may reveal a little more.

The area between the blue lines I see as an area of support / resistance, I have drawn a ABC correction as I think the current top is the end of a 5 EW move and expect the  red support / resistance may be another hurdle for the bullish outlook.

Focus


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Hi IFocus,

Agree with your analysis. 

Increased selling volume Friday was understandable with traders being concerned about a possible false break and sentiment still weighing on LHG due to the Ballarat aquisition. 

On a positive note, Lihir remained buoyant in the US on Friday, closing at the equivalent of $AUS 3.32. (LIHR)

A lot will depend on the Gold price from here. Fundamentals point to a breakout to the upside but the commercials keep adding to their short positions. A break to the upside may see a fast move up fuelled in part by short covering,

Important also is the US dollar index which sliced through support last last week. The weak economic figures that came out last Friday won't help it.
Good for Gold.


----------



## moses

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Hmmm...

The bearish sentiment on the SMA chart seems to favour a false break and subsequent failure for this week.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				moses said:
			
		

> Hmmm...
> 
> The bearish sentiment on the SMA chart seems to favour a false break and subsequent failure for this week.



Will be interesting to see if this indicator works here Moses. Are you going to keep a eye on it and update us if it hold true or not?


----------



## CanOz

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Will be interesting to see if this indicator works here Moses. Are you going to keep a eye on it and update us if it hold true or not?




I think you can still pick up most of the SMA's assumptions on any chart. Its just pointing out selling pressure which in turn = supply added to the market right?

In any case the chart looks ok to me, its staying within its channel trend almost right on que. Sure, theres some selling pressure, last week on Thursday and Friday.

Cheers,


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> I think you can still pick up most of the SMA's assumptions on any chart. Its just pointing out selling pressure which in turn = supply added to the market right?
> 
> In any case the chart looks ok to me, its staying within its channel trend almost right on que. Sure, theres some selling pressure, last week on Thursday and Friday.
> 
> Cheers,



I haven't looked at the indicator in detail yet, but I was assuming it was more than a SMA?

Agree it's going up, and will be generally until it confirms a break back through $3.25.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I haven't looked at the indicator in detail yet, but I was assuming it was more than a SMA?
> 
> Agree it's going up, and will be generally until it confirms a break back through $3.25.




LOL! SMA stand for "Smart Money Analyser" but i thought the exact same thing when i first saw it too Kennas!

Safe trip home mate.

Cheers,


----------



## sails

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

FWIW, I had a look at the SMA indicator over the weekend and noticed that they state it is not so reliable with blue chips, so it will be interesting to see how well it works with LHG.  One of the reasons given is that large fund managers do not always enter the depth queue.

Anyway, for more info - http://www.theinsidetrader.com.au/index.php?siteid=1&action=page&page=smartmoneytutorial.html  and scroll down to the bottom of the page under the heading "Traps for beginners".


----------



## moses

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Will be interesting to see if this indicator works here Moses. Are you going to keep a eye on it and update us if it hold true or not?



Hmmm...well, it didn't hold true for LHG yesterday. The signal was either noise, or at best an expression of the same uncertainty as was raised on this thread. But Monday cleared the uncertainty up and the signal reversed. In short, no good for a prediction in this case.

Mind you...being a blue chip I shouldn't have bothered. But nothing ventured nothing learnt I suppose.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> I think you can still pick up most of the SMA's assumptions on any chart. Its just pointing out selling pressure which in turn = supply added to the market right?



Breaking out as we speak... Looks good on big volume.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Breaking out as we speak... Looks good on big volume.



Not sure about the big volume Chops, but it seems pretty clear that above $3.25 was the breakout, next stop will probably be just under $3.50. I'd expect a breather there unless POG has a couple of very good days.


----------



## the barry

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Not sure about the big volume Chops, but it seems pretty clear that above $3.25 was the breakout, next stop will probably be just under $3.50. I'd expect a breather there unless POG has a couple of very good days.




Wouldn't there full year results posted tomorrow be the next big catalyst for a move?


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

"Talk in the AFR that AngloGold may be looking at a bid for Lihir" - according to 'Marcus Today'  report.

If it's going to happen, you'd think that it would have to be soon so as to make any offer look reasonable - there is a risk now that the gold price and therefore LHG will move higher.

Any suggestions as to what a reasonable offer price for Lihir would be?


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Not sure about the big volume Chops,



There was in the first hour and a bit when I wrote it and it run up to 3.43.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Jadefox said:
			
		

> "Talk in the AFR that AngloGold may be looking at a bid for Lihir" - according to 'Marcus Today'  report.
> 
> If it's going to happen, you'd think that it would have to be soon so as to make any offer look reasonable - there is a risk now that the gold price and therefore LHG will move higher.
> 
> Any suggestions as to what a reasonable offer price for Lihir would be?



Average takeover offers are around 30% above the volume weighted average of the previous month. I'm not sure if Marcus Today is a reliable source though, and any rumours need to be supported here.


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Average takeover offers are around 30% above the volume weighted average of the previous month. I'm not sure if Marcus Today is a reliable source though, and any rumours need to be supported here.





Havn't seen today's AFR - so can't verify the rumour. Perhaps someone else can. Even then - it's still just a rumour.


----------



## vicb

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Can anybody post what was in the AFR or shed some light on the take over rumour.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				vicb said:
			
		

> Can anybody post what was in the AFR or shed some light on the take over rumour.



Was just as posted above, but please be clear, this is pure speculation as far as I can see, and has no real foundation. Please see the ASF policy on 'rumours' at:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5917&highlight=rumours+ASF+policy


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

The track record for the AFR regarding rumours is pretty good (insider knowledge or a privileged leak???) , so at some stage it's a definate possibility, but i don't think whoever makes the first move will be the only bidder. This ones shaping up very similar to the Normandy takeover in that LHG's fundamentals are increasingly being discounted by the market, even after the recent burst higher, so that when a bid does eventuate it will also flush counterbids out into the open with the resulting bidding war. 

LHG is at the point where it may be aware that it has to show the market it is prepared to look further than it's flagship operations and expand through aquisitions eg BGF or get eaten up itself at a bargain price. I think 30% is very conservative kennas, if a bidding war erupts.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> I think 30% is very conservative kennas, if a bidding war erupts.



Well, I certainly hope so too Dr Doom.   But, I was just stating a 'general' perception. 

There has been talk in the papers about consolidation in the Aust gold sector for quite some time, and it has just stated to happen I reckon. 

LVR taken by PSV
BGF by LHG
AGC by OXR (I think)
SBG taking 10% of BDG

These just in the last few months.

The talk about NCM being taken by a major has been going on since 1956. 

It's reasonable to assume LHG would be having the ruler run over it as well IMO, but that's just based on comments on comments on comments made by the media, and by MDs.


----------



## Halba

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

OVERVALUED PROSPECTIVE P/E 33 FOR A MINER!!


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> OVERVALUED PROSPECTIVE P/E 33 FOR A MINER!!




Hi halba,
Have a read of this article: here 

Admittedly, the hedge book looks pretty bad, but nearly all of the remaining fundamentals look good also. P/E's take a back seat in a takeover. Read the article about gold company P/E's 

By the way, where did you gt the P/E figure from, as Comsec have 55?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Will be interesting to see how LHG responds to the $3.25 support line. Might be determined how POG responds to the $660 support. (just under atm)


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned this one today.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I'm surprised nobody has mentioned this one today.



I've been too busy popping champagne.....  

As has been mentioned elsewhere however, the pe is looking high. Not sure why it can maintain it?? Potential growth? Takeover target? Not sure. Comming up to all time high might knock it back a peg or two.


----------



## blues

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Could explain LHG rise today. This was on the news wires.

0157 GMT [Dow Jones] Lihir (LHG.AU) up 5.8% at A$3.45, hit 9-month high of A$3.48 on  good volume of 22 million shares. Gold price surge has lifted most gold stocks, but takeover talk on Lihir is getting louder. One dealer cites talk of a A$4.25/share cash offer from AngloGold Ashanti next week. Another hears a bid above A$4.00 may be coming after the close today. Lihir not immediately available for comment. Next resistance at record high of A$3.64, support at A$3.25. (DWR)


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				blues said:
			
		

> Could explain LHG rise today. This was on the news wires.
> 
> 0157 GMT [Dow Jones] Lihir (LHG.AU) up 5.8% at A$3.45, hit 9-month high of A$3.48 on  good volume of 22 million shares. Gold price surge has lifted most gold stocks, but takeover talk on Lihir is getting louder. One dealer cites talk of a A$4.25/share cash offer from AngloGold Ashanti next week. Another hears a bid above A$4.00 may be coming after the close today. Lihir not immediately available for comment. Next resistance at record high of A$3.64, support at A$3.25. (DWR)




Haha, I kill me.  Psychology is fun isn't it?

If there is a pre-open T/O bid tomorrow I'll spit chips.  My own fault.  I should have applied my "law of inverse interest" and bought, instead of posting about the fact that no-one was talking about this on the forum.

The ASX Gorilla.


----------



## Halba

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

good luck to the buyer @ $4+

i can't understand how they can make money by buying at four bucks


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> good luck to the buyer @ $4+
> 
> i can't understand how they can make money by buying at four bucks



Maybe it'll be a nice tax right off...


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> good luck to the buyer @ $4+
> 
> i can't understand how they can make money by buying at four bucks




That's the beauty of technical analysis and trend following.  The part about value isn't our jigsaw puzzle to solve...we've just got to identify the foot prints in the sand and decide what they mean and whether/when to follow them.


----------



## haemitite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> That's the beauty of technical analysis and trend following. The part about value isn't our jigsaw puzzle to solve...we've just got to identify the foot prints in the sand and decide what they mean and whether/when to follow them.



 and its a little easier than actually understanding the business


----------



## rederob

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				haemitite said:
			
		

> and its a little easier than actually understanding the business



Maybe, but my average entry price is very low on 12500shares and LHG remains my pick of the global gold equities.

Find me a chart that tells the cash cost per ounce of LHG's gold, and its likely profit based on future production.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Find me a chart that tells the cash cost per ounce of LHG's gold, and its likely profit based on future production.




Can't do I'm afraid...but I can show you one that illustrates many people with big brains and/or expertise in gold, like yourself (meant in the kindest possible way) scrambling to buy more shares than are available on the supply side and nudging price higher, through previous resistance levels, with increasing volume.


----------



## haemitite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Maybe, but my average entry price is very low on 12500shares and LHG remains my pick of the global gold equities.
> 
> Find me a chart that tells the cash cost per ounce of LHG's gold, and its likely profit based on future production.



I bought LHG at 1.02 and OXR at 0.87 on fundamentals. I'm ok with that.


----------



## rederob

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Can't do I'm afraid...but I can show you one that illustrates many people with big brains and/or expertise in gold, like yourself (meant in the kindest possible way) scrambling to buy more shares than are available on the supply side and nudging price higher, through previous resistance levels, with increasing volume.



asx'grilla
Check out the chart for LHG against the day I bought it - I tend to buy the dips.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> asx'grilla
> Check out the chart for LHG against the day I bought it - I tend to buy the dips.




...are you showing off ?


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> asx'grilla
> Check out the chart for LHG against the day I bought it - I tend to buy the dips.




Excellent timing and buy, BTW, and going forward, I believe you will clean up.

Well done, you must be very pleased.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> asx'grilla
> Check out the chart for LHG against the day I bought it - I tend to buy the dips.




rederob,

Sorry for the multiple posts...I have a question or two now.

Fundamentals are not my strong suit, and I know very little about gold shares (disclaimer).

From a fundamental stand point, does LHG continue to present good value today, in your opinion...AND therefore, are you adding to OR would you add to your current position(s)?  OR, is this continuation of the up-move that you bought at a DIP, entering into a overvalued, over-reacting phase?

Thanks in advance for your input.

The ASX Gorilla.


----------



## rederob

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> rederob,
> 
> Sorry for the multiple posts...I have a question or two now.
> 
> Fundamentals are not my strong suit, and I know very little about gold shares (disclaimer).
> 
> From a fundamental stand point, does LHG continue to present good value today, in your opinion...AND therefore, are you adding to OR would you add to your current position(s)?  OR, is this continuation of the up-move that you bought at a DIP, entering into a overvalued, over-reacting phase?
> 
> Thanks in advance for your input.
> 
> The ASX Gorilla.



I thought POG was going to move higher last September - but it fizzled.
You will be hard pressed to find a better gold stock than LHG for the following reasons:
Cash cost in lowest quartile
Energy costs amongst lowest in market due to geothermal plant - massive future savings
Gold reserves at Lihir rank in world top 5
Gold production in top 20 (top 10 by end of year)
Ballarat Goldfields merger will take LHG to number 5 in the gold production ranks in next 2 years
Mining in politically stable economies with excellent access to highly skilled mining workforce
LHG has a low hedging profile, so strong exposure to higher spot prices will benefit it during POG increases

I am not going to add to my present LHG exposure for now, but might after the next major retrace.
For those not owning a gold equity, I think there remains strong upside for LHG as a long term hold, with possible short term weakness allowing a cheaper entry in the near term.
I suspect LHG will have the capacity to offer a dividend within the year and this may add to this stock's popularity: Apart from any "takeover" premium that is yet to lock in!


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Rederob,

Terrific analysis, thank you.

In a technical sense, IF you give creedence to that, any price action below $3.27 is negative.  In particular a weekly close below that level would be bad, and even worse would be price action or a weekly close below $3.13.


----------



## the barry

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Someone has taken a chunk of lhg prior to the market opening, 17 million shares. Hopefully that willl continue the upward momentum.


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Were they exercise of options?


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				bvbfan said:
			
		

> Were they exercise of options?




Most probably - options expiry yesterday.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Could be looking at a breakout here. Buyers steadily eating up sellers. Looking good.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

My 2c worth on todays very good run. Watching the tape for the afternoon session saw 358 support fade at the finish suggesting tomorrow may be a consolidation day, subject to pog. Comments?.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> My 2c worth on todays very good run. Watching the tape for the afternoon session saw 358 support fade at the finish suggesting tomorrow may be a consolidation day, subject to pog. Comments?.



POG will be the driver I think.

Might depend on how the Iran news is taken in the US in the morning. Looks like it's testing $690 at the moment. If the US market pushes it over tonight, then LHG should hold or even push on. I'd be happy for some consolidation though, it's had a pretty solid run.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I'm not sure this is looking too good. Support has evaporated today with the rest of the market correcting, & I'm not sure gold is going to come to the rescue tonight either as the 'Plunge Protection Team' have capped it from breaking past $690. Maybe bad night in US markets as well (see Bears den post) spilling over to oz tomorrow? 

It had a good go at $3.60 but all the ammo was spent yesterday I think?
LHG price action saw $3.48 fail as well today so next stop $340 or $325 maybe?. 
Also got sold off with the gold price stable; setting up for another charge later maybe?.


----------



## Dutchy3

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I've a substanital LONG position in LHG (even more so now BGF merge will happen) ... potential for resistance at the old high is real however I'm treating the recent move out of the trading band as a move into stronger hands .... todays price and volume action not encouraging though !!!


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Some traders will have been nervous about a possible double top and may have bailed today, hitting stops, etc. The uptrend  is still in tact though and remains so for me until $3.30 is breached (0.618 retracement).

If it had more than five days down it would be a cause for concern.
It's been a fast move up since the breakout and today's retracement is 
less than one quater of the move up.


----------



## Jadefox

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Looks like the commercial gold shorts have won the battle again.
LHG will be probably be hit hard on Monday.
Down nearly 6% in US.
The close below $3.30 yesterday was an ominous sign.
Back to trading the range - until that takeover rumour re-emerges.


----------



## pacer

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Time to play me thinks...gone long 8000 today....if it proves upwards tomorrow I may play some more over the next couple of days, potential looks good, gold still bullish and bounced of trend line, Lihir has completed its thermo power upgrade which will save $30 mill per year.

Dyor


----------



## CanOz

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> gold still bullish and bounced of trend line,




You turning technical Pacer?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

LHG has come off since gold fell from $690 highs. Seems these are inextricably linked and should be read in conjunction with each other. 

$3.25 should have been support but it failed (as was $660 for gold). Now $3.10 important. It should hold here, if gold holds above $640. 

Gold bounced off $640 ish which is support and I equate this to around the $3.10 ish level for LHG. 

If gold pushed through $660 then this could see LHG breach $3.25 again. Gold $680 would see LHG $3.50 ish again. 

On the down side, gold through $620, LHG through $3.00. Gold $580, LHG $2.75. 

I'm basing this all simply of support and resistance lines in both charts. 

Also, watch the 200d ma for LHG. That's currently around the $3.00 level. That's normally very good support in a bull market.

Probably interesting to note the dips in the MACD (and of course the sp) over the past year. Pretty regular cycle of ups and downs, and it looks like it's coming into a down. A buying opportunity perhaps. 

So, if you are a gold bull and see it heading back towards $700 and beyond, then this might be an opportunity. Gold bear and jump ship!   

Having said all the above, bad news from BGF integration and LHG could suffer throwing the LHG/Gold direct correlation out the door. Likewise with particularly bad news from ops on the island, of course. Now, can I sit on the fence a bit more......no.


----------



## x2rider

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Hey Kennas 
With your chart of LHG being so closely linked to that of the gold price is there anyway that you can overlay these two taking into acc. the difference in prices, if you know what I mean. 
It could just be something that might be able to be traded as a pairs trade as well 
 Cheers martin


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				x2rider said:
			
		

> Hey Kennas
> With your chart of LHg being so closely linked to that of the gold price is there anyway that you can overlay these two taking into acc. the diffence in prices ,. If you know what I mean .
> It could just be something that might be able to be traded as a pairs trade as well
> Cheers martin



Unfortunately, I don't have the capability.   

Here's the gold one, if you scroll back and forward you can see the links. It's not perfect, but pretty close, especially from around Oct 06.


----------



## pacer

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> You turning technical Pacer?




Are you stalking me Cassie.....lol

Bought another 8000 over the last few days....I use a strange system (range buying I guess you'd call it-not averaging), right now I'm a bit above break even and waiting for the run up if it occours.

Banks will run out of puff selling gold and investors making back some losses over the last 2 days will help also me thinks....there was some worry investors would be selling gold to cover losses in the sharemarket.

The Aussie markets are proving to be rather robust, which is a good sign for longs.


----------



## pacer

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Definitely a traders share...$2-300 a day just don't excite me...NCM pays better


----------



## mildew79

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

lhg balance book shall look much more attractive ahead thanks to reduction in costs (thermo power upgrade) and increasing gold price. gold likely to stay on the rise imo. expecting 900 - 1000 us within 6 - 12 months. 

*reasons:*

technical:

spot price recently broke out of a triangle chart formation. triangle formations after an advance are usually a bullish sign and represent continuation patterns

fundamental:

many reasons (i shall keep these to myself. dont want to make it a 5 pager)

lhg is a rare occurance in their mine actually has more capacity than  they can move. literally sits in piles waiting.

would love to see them confront this in the future

very attractive leverage advantages on this. very predictable support and resistance levels. 100% to be made imo at very low risk

also check ogd. hedge prices released over the next couple of years. if gold does get to 900 us as i believe it will ogd could prove very interesting and profitable. 100% + and good leverage to increase this profitability substantially higher


----------



## rederob

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

mildew
It is not common for POG to spend over a year in the (consolidation) wilderness, so I reckon we have to be close to another breakout.
Typically the longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout.
Lihir is exceptionally well placed to take advantage of a rising POG and with costs that are reducing - against a market experiencing rising costs - it will an "outperformer".
I would be looking at more LHG on any retrace below its 200day ma.


----------



## haemitite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



mildew79 said:


> fundamental:
> 
> many reasons (i shall keep these to myself. dont want to make it a 5 pager)



Can you pls expand on this - interested to hear your views from a fundamental viewpoint


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I'm holding quite a bit of this, but very concerned of the pe. Interested in anyone elses concerns on this, or perspective. Cheers.


----------



## haemitite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



kennas said:


> I'm holding quite a bit of this, but very concerned of the pe. Interested in anyone elses concerns on this, or perspective. Cheers.



Same boat.

I bought in at $1.02 in 2005, but at current levels I'm finding holding on now hard to justify, even with the nice cost reduction kicking in with the geothermal power supply. The future year forecast PEs are hefty.

On the plus side its a massive gold resource, and I'm happy that the the PNG sovereignity risk has been managed as well as it could be with community programs etc. The downside is the seismic activity risk, this could be savage. The Ballarat transaction may have actually increased risk given the nature of that gold resource

I'm a lukewarm holder as I am with OXR, mainly as I don't fancy the 22.5% tax on capital gain. Then again there isn't too much else to put the sales proceeds in, other than continue to work on being a top 20 holder in PMM

If it kicks up much further towards $4 I'll either sell or buy Puts. Willing - if not keen - to hear if others think there is further upside to be factored in


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



haemitite said:


> If it kicks up much further towards $4 I'll either sell or buy Puts. Willing - if not keen - to hear if others think there is further upside to be factored in



Perhaps gold appreciation is factored in? I haven't read too much analysis lately saying POG is going down. If POG heads back to $700 + then we could possibly see those levels but I agree with the BGF risks. As far as country risk goes, I think it's more the location risk that worries me. One decent earthquake and disaster. A mudslide on one road can put them out of production.

At the moment $3.25 ish equates to about $660 POG. Seems to be tracking well. Both LHG and gold have been generally climbing since Sep/Oct 06. Although, it's more like an ascending triangle really. $3.15-25 ish has proved strong resistance.

With Iran still teasing the rest of the world into bombing their nuclear facilities I think the Geopolitics-Iran-Oil-Inflation-Gold link could keep gold going higher, and LHG along with it. 

So, I'm still holding for now. I'll probably take some off the table if it gets back around all time highs.


----------



## mildew79

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



rederob said:


> mildew
> It is not common for POG to spend over a year in the (consolidation) wilderness, so I reckon we have to be close to another breakout.
> Typically the longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout.
> Lihir is exceptionally well placed to take advantage of a rising POG and with costs that are reducing - against a market experiencing rising costs - it will an "outperformer".




my thoughts exactly rederob


----------



## mildew79

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



haemitite said:


> Can you pls expand on this - interested to hear your views from a fundamental viewpoint




ill get online tonight or tomoz when i have a bit more time


----------



## the barry

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Just went into a trading halt till monday. 4 day trading halt which is bigger than the normal two day obviously. Don't want to be seen as ramping, you can't buy it anyway and come monday we will know if it is true anyway, but i heard the rumour that a takeover is in the air from my broker. Big jump in share price and volume today. One to watch.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



the barry said:


> Just went into a trading halt till monday. 4 day trading halt which is bigger than the normal two day obviously. Don't want to be seen as ramping, you can't buy it anyway and come monday we will know if it is true anyway, but i heard the rumour that a takeover is in the air from my broker. Big jump in share price and volume today. One to watch.




Azumah went into a halt a few minutes before. Might be linked. If so, LHG will be buying it, not the other way around. Maybe. 

http://www.azumahresources.com.au/


----------



## j4mesa

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



kennas said:


> Azumah went into a halt a few minutes before. Might be linked. If so, LHG will be buying it, not the other way around. Maybe.
> 
> http://www.azumahresources.com.au/




Hi Sean,

just wondering abt how you actually notice that azumah got trading halt before LHG ? ie how do get such information ?
thanks


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



j4mesa said:


> Hi Sean,
> 
> just wondering abt how you actually notice that azumah got trading halt before LHG ? ie how do get such information ?
> thanks



Your online broker will have the info somewhere streaming through, or you can check the ASX website under announcements as I did tonight.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/todayAnnHeaders.jsp

Cheers.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

The trading halts are for different time frames, so maybe not related. That would mean an overseas company making an offer. Or, it's not corporate action but something significant with their operations. That's not normally good though. I'm sure the media will have a good rumour for us in the paper tomorrow, which will probably be true.

If it's a takeover offer, then expect 30% above the past months average price. So about $4.20 ish.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



kennas said:


> The trading halts are for different time frames, so maybe not related. That would mean an overseas company making an offer. Or, it's not corporate action but something significant with their operations. That's not normally good though. I'm sure the media will have a good rumour for us in the paper tomorrow, which will probably be true.
> 
> If it's a takeover offer, then expect 30% above the past months average price. So about $4.20 ish.




I kind of hope it is a takeover of AZM. Having a quick look at their drill results, they look absolutely fantastic.

I actually don't want them to be taken over as they are one of only two stocks I have currently in my long term holdings, and I doubt I will be able to find a low risk play with as good growth prospects as this one.   Plus, it's a great one to use for margin.


----------



## Pommiegranite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



chops_a_must said:


> I kind of hope it is a takeover of AZM. Having a quick look at their drill results, they look absolutely fantastic.
> 
> I actually don't want them to be taken over as they are one of only two stocks I have currently in my long term holdings, and I doubt I will be able to find a low risk play with as good growth prospects as this one.   Plus, it's a great one to use for margin.




Sorry for the following longwinded question... 

I bought LHG $3.50 last month. Does anyone know the CGT implications if a takeover were to take place while a shareholder had held for less than 12months?


----------



## haemitite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



Pommiegranite said:


> Sorry for the following longwinded question...
> 
> I bought LHG $3.50 last month. Does anyone know the CGT implications if a takeover were to take place while a shareholder had held for less than 12months?



unfortunately you'll be taxed at your marginal rate unless there was script rollover relief.

People have jumped on the TO bandwagon pretty fast.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



haemitite said:


> People have jumped on the TO bandwagon pretty fast.



Yep, you're right. I've been searching the majors for trading halts and nothing. But, can't really think of anything else. Worst case, operational problems, but no need for 4 day halt for that. Unless it's really, really bad.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



kennas said:


> Yep, you're right. I've been searching the majors for trading halts and nothing. But, can't really think of anything else. Worst case, operational problems, but no need for 4 day halt for that. Unless it's really, really bad.



I doubt it. I was going to say the price action today said something pretty positive was up. Operational problems wouldn't need a 4 day trading halt. 2 days at most. And most of the time, if it is pretty severe, there is no point in having a trading halt as the media is all over it... e.g. Santos.


----------



## Pommiegranite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



haemitite said:


> unfortunately you'll be taxed at your marginal rate unless there was script rollover relief.
> 
> People have jumped on the TO bandwagon pretty fast.


----------



## eckart

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

If there would be operational problems I doubt the SP would have jumped 5% today. If there is a TO by Lihir of another company again SP speaks against that IMO. The TO of Lihir therefore seams a possibility. But who?
Anglo(would give them No2 on Gold production) or Xstrata(would put them in the big Gold producer league No6).
But all speculation!


----------



## rederob

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



kennas said:


> ......That If it's a takeover offer, then expect 30% above the past months average price. So about $4.20 ish.



I won't be selling LHG anywhere close to $4.20 - maybe $5 is nearer the mark.
With a rising gold price, and LHG one of the few major gold miners with decreasing cash costs, I doubt any offer will be accepted at first or second bid price, unless excessively generous.


----------



## the barry

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

The volume of the early trades, there was two early at 500,000 grand a piece suggest to me that the news willl be positive. I dont think it will be to do with azm as they were done 5 minutes apart and announcements of these kind are lodged at the same time. Also it is a normal two day trading halt not 4. Hopefully a takeover is in the wind. Good luck to those who hold.


----------



## haemitite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



Pommiegranite said:


>




LOL

I prefer "no pain, no pain"

I'm still holding 12000 LHG - probably happily - but if it actually is a TO then the premium is most likely about to fly to the ATO. Unless its say a 1 for 6 deal from NCM


----------



## Pommiegranite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



haemitite said:


> LOL
> 
> I prefer "no pain, no pain"
> 
> I'm still holding 12000 LHG - probably happily - but if it actually is a TO then the premium is most likely about to fly to the ATO. Unless its say a 1 for 6 deal from NCM




I just moved from the UK where everyone is allowed to invest £7K a year without any payment of income tax or CGT on the £7K investment for life!!

So investing in Aussie Stocks will take some getting used to. Whatever happened to governments encouraging investment? 

Then again, the ASX seems to be doing well despite the ATO's large slice of this bull market.


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I'm going to hazard a guess at a large capital raising via a instutional bookbuild for a possible takeover, I say bookbuild because they take a little while to get overseas bidders interested.


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Quick calculation of dilutory effect has a share price value of 2.93.

Expect it will trade under that though


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



bvbfan said:


> Quick calculation of dilutory effect has a share price value of 2.93.
> 
> Expect it will trade under that though



How do you come up with that figure bvbfan.  

You know how much they're going to ask for, if they even do?


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Current market cap + new value of shares to be issued (1.2billion)

I had quick flick of announcement and they are raising funds at $2.30

so 1.2billion / 2.30 ~ number of new shares

(market cap + 1.2billion) divided by 
(number of new shares + number of old shares)


~4.4 + 1.2 / ~0.52 + 1.4 
(5.6/1.92)

2.92 that way ( i used excel  to get 2.93)


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



bvbfan said:


> Current market cap + new value of shares to be issued (1.2billion)
> 
> I had quick flick of announcement and they are raising funds at $2.30
> 
> so 1.2billion / 2.30 ~ number of new shares
> 
> (market cap + 1.2billion) divided by
> (number of new shares + number of old shares)
> 
> 
> ~4.4 + 1.2 / ~0.52 + 1.4
> (5.6/1.92)
> 
> 2.92 that way ( i used excel  to get 2.93)



Thanks, I didn't even see the placement ann.  

News article:

*Lihir looks to raise $1.2bn in share offer*
17/04/2007 By: Nicholas Grove

Lihir Gold Limited (LHG) today said it would raise up to $1.2 billion in new equity to close out its hedge book, repay debt and fund development. The company said it would raise the funds through a one-for-three accelerated entitlement offer to shareholders and a placement of shares to institutional investors. 

Under the entitlement offer, the Papua New Guinea-focussed gold miner said eligible shareholders would be invited to subscribe for new shares at a price of $2.30 per share, raising up to $1.07 billion. 

Lihir said the offer price represents a discount of 32% to yesterday’s closing price of its shares on the Australian Stock Exchange and a 26% discount to the theoretical ex-entitlements price. 

The placement would raise an additional $120 million at a price to be determined through a global bookbuild process, the miner added. 

Lihir said the funds raised would be used for the close out of the company's gold hedge contracts, totalling 934,500 ounces and the early repayment of the company's 480,000 ounce gold loan. 

The funds would also go towards the repayment of all of Lihir's other secured debt facilities and would also provide capital expenditure to complete development of the Ballarat East Project. 

The balance of the proceeds would be available to help fund the proposed expansion of production at Lihir Island to more than 1 million ounces of annual gold production, other mining and exploration projects in the Ballarat region and general working capital. 

In a statement, chief executive officer Arthur Hood said the restructure represented the next logical step in the rapid transformation of Lihir. 

“The company has made excellent progress in improving its operational performance over the last eighteen months, demonstrated by the record production achieved in 2006,” he said. 

“This restructure we have announced today enables us to reorganize our balance sheet, improve our financial structure and create a solid platform for the future.” 

The gold miner also announced today that it achieved gold production for the first quarter ended 31 March 2007 of 193,302 ounces, which was the second highest quarterly production on record. 

Operating revenues for the quarter totalled $96 million, which was down from $112 million in the December quarter. Lihir said the fall was primarily due to lower gold sales. 

Going forward, the company said it remains on track to achieve full year production of 800,000 to 830,000 ounces. 

Shares in Lihir Gold remained halted at 1109 AEST Tuesday and last traded at $3.36.


----------



## Pommiegranite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Right...I'm a total newbie..and having read through the press releases..am pretty confused by the terminology/logic etc 

So would really be greatful for a translation into laymans' terms on LHG's press releases .

To my understanding the follwing is happening:

LHG are trying to raise cash and so are restructuring the number of shares/price on the market.

They are offering a discount to retail/institutional investors.

Because more shares will be in circulation, doesn't this mean that this 'discount' is not as juicy as it seems.

What is bookbuild?

I am on holiday from Friday for 1 week...and will have no access to the post..and only little access to email. Will I not be able to partake?

Am I an institutional or retail investor?

Thanks 

PG


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



Pommiegranite said:


> Right...I'm a total newbie..and having read through the press releases..am pretty confused by the terminology/logic etc
> 
> So would really be greatful for a translation into laymans' terms on LHG's press releases .
> 
> To my understanding the follwing is happening:
> 
> LHG are trying to raise cash and so are restructuring the number of shares/price on the market.
> 
> They are offering a discount to retail/institutional investors.
> 
> Because more shares will be in circulation, doesn't this mean that this 'discount' is not as juicy as it seems.
> 
> What is bookbuild?
> 
> I am on holiday from Friday for 1 week...and will have no access to the post..and only little access to email. Will I not be able to partake?
> 
> Am I an institutional or retail investor?
> 
> Thanks
> 
> PG



Discount might be juicy, depending on what happens to the sp post halt. If Mr Market thinks the money raised for whatever is a good thing for LHG mid to long term, then it might stay up. Paying off the hedge book is a big plus IMO. 

Bookbuild refers to LHGs advisors trying to sell stock to institutions.

You should have time to fix it once you get back. More detail will follow on dates for acceptance.

You are retail I think.


----------



## Pommiegranite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



kennas said:


> Discount might be juicy, depending on what happens to the sp post halt. If Mr Market thinks the money raised for whatever is a good thing for LHG mid to long term, then it might stay up. Paying off the hedge book is a big plus IMO.
> 
> Bookbuild refers to LHGs advisors trying to sell stock to institutions.
> 
> You should have time to fix it once you get back. More detail will follow on dates for acceptance.
> 
> You are retail I think.




Thanks Kennas.

Having reread the release...I can see its a 1 for 3 offer. This is the part that confuses me.

If I hold 300 shares, I will be given 100? OR will I have to purchase these 100? (at $2.30)?

..and what if I want more than the 1 in 3 offer?...can I still by more at the discounted rate?

Whatever happens...I reckon this raising of capital gives me confidence in LHG as a long term hold. 


PG


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



Pommiegranite said:


> Thanks Kennas.
> 
> Having reread the release...I can see its a 1 for 3 offer. This is the part that confuses me.
> 
> If I hold 300 shares, I will be given 100? OR will I have to purchase these 100? (at $2.30)?
> PG



You'll have to purchase them unfortunately.  I'll be taking up my entitlement.


----------



## muddywaters

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Kennas,

I'm new too and only bought a batch of these yesterday...

Looking at the last announcement (12.15 pm) it appears i'll miss out on the offer and just cop a loss on the price when it trades next week.  Can you confirm where I stand and what it's likely to do in the near future.

Am i in for some pain here?

Thanks in advance.


----------



## Pommiegranite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



kennas said:


> You'll have to purchase them unfortunately.  I'll be taking up my entitlement.





...providing the share price doesn't head south big-time over the next few weeks..I will too


----------



## Pommiegranite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



muddywaters said:


> Am i in for some pain here?
> 
> Thanks in advance.




Depends if you are a long termer. 

Any company which reduces debts and is therefore less levereged, will be in a healthier position once the eventual market downturn materialises.

This is what impresses me about LHG.

Kind of like paying off your mortgage early


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



muddywaters said:


> Kennas,
> 
> I'm new too and only bought a batch of these yesterday...
> 
> Looking at the last announcement (12.15 pm) it appears i'll miss out on the offer and just cop a loss on the price when it trades next week.  Can you confirm where I stand and what it's likely to do in the near future.
> 
> Am i in for some pain here?
> 
> Thanks in advance.



I'm not exactly sure on your entitlement myself. Call your broker I think.

As far pain goes, depends on what the market thinks. Closing out the hedge book looks to be a very positive move IMO, because I think gold has still someway to run, and LHG will get maximum benefit at a time where they are closing in on 1m oz a year. On the other hand, if gold turns to pie, then it's not that great.


----------



## hos11au

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

So come monday will the share price will be approx $2.90 or less?


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

A book build is a particular way of conducting a float where the price at which shares are sold is not fixed, but rather is determined following a process in which interested investors bid for shares. This is quite a common way of determining the price paid for shares by institutional investors.

So the institutional part may end up being higher than 2.30 so my previous calculation may be cheap. I think overseas bidders may be interested in this now it will be an unhedged gold producer of nearly 1million ounces in a few years.

Still the P/E will be a huge number and increase on previous number too.

If you bought yesterday then looks like you are still eligible for the rights issue.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I am rather happy with this.

I'm not convinced it will have that huge an impact on the share price. The way it has been received domestically and internationally speaks volumes. On CNBC this morning they were saying that it is quite clearly even more of a take over target now. The extra forward looking revenue from getting rid of the hedging may more than offset the dilution.

At $2.30 to increase my long term holdings in the company? I don't think I can complain. I see the long term value in the company as much much higher.

The only concern that I have is that I wont be able to get my full allotment due to it being oversubscribed. It doesn't appear that they have written that scenario into the announcements, so perhaps the $1.2b takes into account full subscription?


----------



## ta2693

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Therefore, a person who is a registered shareholder at 7.00pm on 20 April 2007 as a result of a dealing (including a borrowing/lending transaction) after the announcement of the trading halt on 16 April 2007 (other than the registration of a transaction effected through SEATS before the announcement of the trading halt on 16 April 2007) may not be entitled to
receive an entitlement under the Entitlement Offer.

What does that mean? If I buy tomorrow, what the chance of my receiving the entitlement under the entitlement?


----------



## Pommiegranite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



ta2693 said:


> Therefore, a person who is a registered shareholder at 7.00pm on 20 April 2007 as a result of a dealing (including a borrowing/lending transaction) after the announcement of the trading halt on 16 April 2007 (other than the registration of a transaction effected through SEATS before the announcement of the trading halt on 16 April 2007) may not be entitled to
> receive an entitlement under the Entitlement Offer.
> 
> What does that mean? If I buy tomorrow, what the chance of my receiving the entitlement under the entitlement?




You can't buy tomorrow. Sharetrading of LHG is Frozen ..I believe.


----------



## rederob

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



bvbfan said:


> Still the P/E will be a huge number and increase on previous number too.




An example?


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Using figs from tradingroom LHG EPS is 0.05 and current P/E of 58

New EPS value would be ~0.036 and at $3 P/E would be 82 and using last price 92

If my calcs are right

Not that P/E is something I use in detail


----------



## stoxclimber

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

The PE doesnt change, the decreased price of the shares is exactly offset by the decrease EPS.


----------



## stoxclimber

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

sorry, didnt see that it was a placement

in that case pe increases as bvb said [earnings constant but market cap increases]


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I've read various reports on this and some think it's a good move, while others think it adds some risk to what is already a relatively high risk play. I'm on the fence atm.

*DJ UPDATE: Lihir Gold Restructures, Plans Output Surge17/04/2007 06:24PM AEST *

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Lihir Gold Ltd. (LHG.AU) said Tuesday it will raise up to A$1.2 billion in equity to fund a major financial restructure as it aims to double production over the next three years. 

The company will use the funds to close-out its seven year forward gold commitments, effectively remove all of its other secured debt facilities, and complete the development of its Ballarat East project in Victoria state and expansion of its principal Lihir Mine in Papua New Guinea. 

"We'll create an unhedged gold producer with full leverage to the gold price," said Lihir chief executive Arthur Hood. 

"We'll be essentially a debt free company with a really strong growth profile, and we'll have substantially improved cashflows and increased financial flexibility," Hood told a media briefing. 

Lihir is forecasting gold production to increase from a record 651,000 ounces in 2006 to more than 1.25 million ounces when its two projects move into full production in 2010. 

Hood said this was "a growth profile to die for," and reduced the need for Lihir to make any further acquisitions after it paid around A$350 million in scrip for Ballarat Goldfields NL. earlier this year. 

"We're under no pressure to go out and do additional M&A activity. Having said that if the right opportunity comes along that we think will add shareholder value then we'll look at that, as and when the time comes," said Hood, noting Lihir will have up to A$200 million in working capital available if all offers are fully subscribed. 

Lihir will raise up to A$1.07 billion through a one for three entitlement offer to existing shareholders at A$2.30 a share, and A$120 million from a share placement to institutions through a global bookbuild. Pricing for this offering will finalized Friday. 

Around A$856 million under the entitlement offer will be raised from institutional investors, underwritten by Goldman Sachs JBWere and Macquarie Equity Capital Markets. The retail offer could raise up to A$214 million if all the estimated 20% of retail investors on the share register take it up. 

*Analysts expect Lihir shares to fall sharply when trading recommences Monday, with an issue price 32% lower than Lihir's last trade at A$3.36 Monday. *

"It's an equity raising at a deep discount so the share price will react to that," said one analyst who asked not to be named. Other analysts said the size of the equity issue will make it difficult for the removal of forward sale commitments to add to per share earnings. 

"It's a very, very big issue so you need to have a lot of earnings growth to offset that," said ABN Amro resources analyst Warren Edney. 

Comex gold futures are trading around US$695 per ounce, at 11 month highs and near last May's record levels when they briefly spiked above US$700 per ounce. 

*"If you're very, very, bullish about the gold price it would be a positive for earnings. However I think it's probably only marginally EPS positive because they're issuing so many shares," said Edney. *

The announcements coincided with Lihir unveiling production of 193,300 ounces of gold during the first quarter to March, its second best result but down 14% on the 226,000 ounces produced in the last quarter of 2006. 

Production this year is forecast between 800,000 and 830,000 ounces, with cash production costs for the rest of the year to average in the mid-US$200 range, said the company.


----------



## nomore4s

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



kennas said:


> I've read various reports on this and some think it's a good move, while others think it adds some risk to what is already a relatively high risk play. I'm on the fence atm.




Kennas, wouldn't this depend alot on the time frame of the various investors/traders holding this stock? IE - Longer term investors will eventually see some value but for shorter term holders it's not so good?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



nomore4s said:


> Kennas, wouldn't this depend alot on the time frame of the various investors/traders holding this stock? IE - Longer term investors will eventually see some value but for shorter term holders it's not so good?



Yes, anyone with a very short term focus might not be happy. Also might depend on when you bought this. Recent buyers might not be happy if the stock dives on Monday. I've bought it from 60 cents up to $2.80 ish, so I'm comfortable with my position and am looking longer term. I'm still curious at the p/e on this. (e trade have it at 47) There's lots of upside factored in to the sp - possibly a takeover premium.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

*ABN Amro rates LHG as Hold* - The company has moved to eliminate its gold hedging position via a capital raising that will also pay down debt and provide funds for capex, the broker suggesting the move is a positive for core earnings but will be a negative for headline numbers. 

Its valuation of the stock has fallen 10% to account for the additional shares to be issued, while it expects the stock to start trading again in line with the rights issue price of $2.30. 

Target price is $2.23 Current Price is $3.36 Difference ($1.13) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If LHG meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately - 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

*JP Morgan rates LHG as Overweight* - The company's move to raise funds to close its hedge book and obtain development capital for the Balalrat project is a positive in the broker's view as it will increase the company's leverage to spot prices and make the comany more attractive to potential suitors. 

While in the short-term there may be some underperformance as a result of the share issue the broker remains positive on the company's outlook. 

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.36 Difference:$0.14 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If LHG meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

The company's fiscal year ends in December. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY06 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 80.00. 

*SB Citigroup rates LHG as Hold, High Risk* - The broker left everything unchanged, even though there seems lots to digest for Lihir shareholders. 

Company has announced an equity raising of $1.2bn through a 1 for 3 entitlement offer plus a placement of shares to institutional investors. The entitlement is priced at $2.30, which is a large discount (some 32%) to the closing price. 

Approximately 80% of the funds to be raised will be used to close out the hedge book and repay the gold loan and other secured debt facilities of the company. 

Citigroup analysts have quickly calculated this will leave management with circa $200m to spend towards the Lihir Island expansion and Ballarat development. 

Analysts comment the large discount for the entitlement is likely to ensure the raising will be successful. 

Becoming an unhedged producer may make the company a more appealing takeover target, Citigroup believes. 

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.36 Difference:$0.24 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If LHG meets the SB Citigroup target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

The company's fiscal year ends in December. SB Citigroup forecasts a full year FY07 EPS of 11.00 cents. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.55. 

*UBS rates LHG as Neutral 2 *- The capital issue to close out the hedge book is advantageous in turning LHG into a pure-play stock, the broker suggests. However, as the broker sees gold ending below US$690/oz by year end, it considers a close out at this level to be dilutive. 

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.36 Difference:$0.24 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If LHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

The company's fiscal year ends in December. UBS forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.00.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Comes out of the halt today and FP are betting on a 10-15% drop. So, a 33-50 cent drop to $3.00-$2.83 ish. $3.00 is one of important support levels I think, so hopefully it can hold around here. If it's sold off any more than $2.83 ish I'd see it as a knee jerk reaction and maybe an opportunity. On the other hand Mr Market's a crazy beast. Anyhting can and will happen. What a shame, it looked set to be about to test all time highs too.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



kennas said:


> Comes out of the halt today and FP are betting on a 10-15% drop. So, a 33-50 cent drop to $3.00-$2.83 ish. $3.00 is one of important support levels I think, so hopefully it can hold around here. If it's sold off any more than $2.83 ish I'd see it as a knee jerk reaction and maybe an opportunity. On the other hand Mr Market's a crazy beast. Anyhting can and will happen. What a shame, it looked set to be about to test all time highs too.



I'd be very surprised if it went through 2.80:


> A Bookbuild was carried out for the sale of approximately 43 million Placement shares, plus shares
> equivalent to the number of Entitlements not taken up in the Institutional Entitlement Offer. *The
> Bookbuild was significantly oversubscribed, with strong interest shown from both Australian and offshore
> institutional investors. The Bookbuild resulted in a final clearing price of $2.80 per share, which was
> $0.50 above the Offer Price.*


----------



## muddywaters

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

LHG - LIHIR GOLD LIMITED 
Deutsche Bank rates LHG as Buy - The broker suggests the entitlement and placement offer is "overwhelmingly positive" for LHG. With no debt and no hedge, LHG becomes a pure play gold stock. The broker assumes a 10% discount for the placement, putting that at $3.02. 
Target rises from $3.41 to $3.88. 

Target price is $3.88 Current Price is $3.36 Difference:$0.52 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If LHG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

The company's fiscal year ends in December. Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.60%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.33.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



kennas said:


> $3.00 is one of important support levels I think, so hopefully it can hold around here.



 Seems to be a support area. I've picked some more up here. Too early to really tell if it'll hold, but I like LHG mid-long term gold exposure, and will become a juicier T/O target once it's cleared the hedge decks.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

*Deutsche Bank rates LHG as Buy *- The broker suggests the entitlement and placement offer is "overwhelmingly positive" for LHG. With no debt and no hedge, LHG becomes a pure play gold stock. The broker assumes a 10% discount for the placement, putting that at $3.02. 
Target rises from $3.41 to $3.88. 

Target price is $3.88 Current Price is $3.36 Difference:$0.52 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If LHG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

The company's fiscal year ends in December. Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.60%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.33.


----------



## Tye

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

LHG came up as a buy yesterday arvo according to my trading plan. with a 65% probability of hitting $3.19 within 2/weeks. Just thought you might be interested?


----------



## drillinto

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

April 23, 2007

The Economist Spouts More Rubbish About Gold

Last week the mighty US dollar fell below US$2:£1 and gold pushed up towards the US$670/oz mark. Nothing very unexpected about these two statistics to most people, but to the Economist they must have come as a mighty shock. In the April 8th edition of that august magazine it carried an article entitled “A Fine And Fickle Friend” and the sub-title was “ Gold is a useful friend, but only for a fortnight.” The fortnight is now up and the writer is clearly hoist by the Economist’s traditional contempt for gold. A look back through the files shows that the Economist published a very similar article on April 17th 2006 to which we responded with one entitled “The Economist Seems to be Stuck In The Dark Ages with Its Views On Gold.” What is so difficult to understand is why the Economist attacks gold and does not treat it simply as another form of investment. The masses of investors who have become involved in the gold exchange traded funds cannot all be wrong.
Mention is made by the Economist of the fact that the biggest holders of bullion have been central banks and this is described as a relic of gold-standard days. By and large, says the Economist, central banks have not been enthusiastic holders, and have had, on occasion, to agree not to sell their stockpiles.  This is a rather tendentious reference to the Washington Agreement of 1999 when  a number of central banks agreed not to sell more than 400 tonnes of gold a year between them. In fact they have sold well less than 400 tonnes per year and any potential  overhang is limited by the fact that these banks now own only 20 per cent of the gold in the world. The question also has to be asked as to which central bank wants to risk the condemnation now being heaped on Prudence Brown for selling a large slug of the UK’s gold reserves at the turn of the century.

Prudence is now digging himself into another hole by pushing for the International Monetary Fund to sell part of its gold reserves to meet its future financing requirements. He is quoted as saying that there was "no doubt" that gold sales were potentially part of the I.M.F.'s likely future financing. He then went on to claim that an independent report into future IMF financing had recommended that any gold sales should take place in a "measured way." Presumably he was referring to something similar to the crass way in which the Treasury sold the UK gold in a series of auctions. All traders had to do was sell gold as it fell prior to each auction and buy it back at a higher price once the auction was over. The result was that the UK inevitably got bottom dollar as anybody of a commercial bent would understand.

So much for politicians and economist, few of whom have held a real job in their lives. What about the men at the forefront of the gold industry? At the leading Australian gold producer Lihir Gold  a decision has been made to close out its hedge book, neutralise debt and raise funds for expanding and developing its existing assets.  This has to be a massive bet by the company, which is focused on gold in Papua New Guinea.  The company is going to raise A$1.07 billion through a share issue at a 32 per cent discount to the price ruling this time last week. This will be supplemented by a further A$120 million at a price to be determined by the institutional bookbuilding process which makes A$1.2 billion in all – quite a sum. 

The share issue  is split between A$856 million which will go to institutions and is fully underwritten by Goldman Sachs JBWere and Maquarie Equity Markets as is the placement. The balance of A$214 million is reserved for retail investors and will not be underwritten. The hedge book contains 934,500 ozs gold and  there is a 480,000 oz gold loan which will be repaid early. On the basis that the expansion of production at the Lihir mine will cost around A$660 million, the company is going to spend a similar sum on its hedge book thought it should be borne in mind that money may have to be spent on its recent acquisition of Ballarat Goldfields.

It is the company’s shareholders who pressurised for this move as they want  more exposure to the gold price in future as Lihir is forecasting production of 800 to 830,000 ozs this year and will  be pressing on towards the magic million ounce mark thereafter. The view that the gold price will go up is certainly supported by some influential commentators such as Peter Grandich, editor  of the Grandich Letter, who said at the end of last week that “a near-perfect storm has aligned both technically and fundamentally for gold. A test of the 2006 highs around US$735/oz is not a question of if, but when.”  He was supported by James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, "strong physical buying has been seen on dips, while the current bearish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar may encourage diversification away from the greenback.”

Looks like the Economist is marching out of time with the rest of the financial world. At least it knows that Prudence Brown and Little Balls are in the same predicament, but it would be wise to remember Lord Chesterfield’ maxim that everyone is known by the company they keep.  Anyway the Chinese would probably be delighted if the IMF sold off some gold as it would enable them to switch some of their massive reserves out of dollars that much more easily. 

Source: www.minesite.com


----------



## Out Too Soon

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



Tye said:


> LHG came up as a buy yesterday arvo according to my trading plan. with a 65% probability of hitting $3.19 within 2/weeks. Just thought you might be interested?




Would you like to expand on that Tye? I look at LHG & I'm both tempted & nervous. It seems no one can come to a reasonable sp for LHG, I've been following for a long while but never taken the plunge.


----------



## Tye

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



Out Too Soon said:


> Would you like to expand on that Tye? I look at LHG & I'm both tempted & nervous. It seems no one can come to a reasonable sp for LHG, I've been following for a long while but never taken the plunge.




Well to be honest i do not follow fundementals at all. I believe fundementals are great if you know what you are looking for but for me i really can not find a reason to purchase a share just because the ceo says they are going great (Thats a 50/50 gamble for me.) I used 3.19 for a initial target for the plain reason, its the low of the most resent signifigant low (13th april). Also gaps have been filled on this share 100% of the time so if thats the case $3.19 should be filled. I do not trade long term and only hold shares for around 2 weeks depending on how they are going. So i do not have a clue what will happen with this one over the long term and honestly i dont care. I trade my plan technicaly not fundamntaly. so all i can say is it has a 65% chance to go up in the next 10 days.


----------



## Pommiegranite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Any of you shareholders received your retail investment offer yet? If not...when do you think it should arrive by?


----------



## Out Too Soon

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



Tye said:


> Well to be honest i do not follow fundementals at all. I believe fundementals are great if you know what you are looking for but for me i really can not find a reason to purchase a share just because the ceo says they are going great (Thats a 50/50 gamble for me.) I used 3.19 for a initial target for the plain reason, its the low of the most resent signifigant low (13th april). Also gaps have been filled on this share 100% of the time so if thats the case $3.19 should be filled. I do not trade long term and only hold shares for around 2 weeks depending on how they are going. So i do not have a clue what will happen with this one over the long term and honestly i dont care. I trade my plan technicaly not fundamntaly. so all i can say is it has a 65% chance to go up in the next 10 days.




Thanks Tye, I'll hold a share between 1 day & 4 months but I always like to know the fundamentals even if the sp action or T/A makes me go against them (short term). 
    I noticed large change of directors notices (positive, they're buying), so that's a good sign of healthy sp movement to come.


----------



## robots

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

hello,

are people here taking up the share offer from Lihir?

one new share for every three held at a price of 2.30

thankyou

robots


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



robots said:


> hello,
> 
> are people here taking up the share offer from Lihir?
> 
> one new share for every three held at a price of 2.30
> 
> thankyou
> 
> robots



Yes, I am robots. Would be silly not to really with the offer price. What was it - $2.30? Great discount. I think some people might flog them off when they start trading, but not too many perhaps. Capital gains will probably eat quite a bit of the profit and I have the general impression that LHG was set to keep climbing from where it was. I'll be happy to hold, unless it becomes clear that POG is NOT going to continue it's bull run. Not sure if it's possible to know that 100% but anyway...FWIW.


----------



## Holdon

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

I have been buying parcels on CFD trades all the way from $3.03 last week to yesterdays low...in profit now and am expecting a few more upward plays to $3.15....then I'm out......but LHG is a nice takeover target IMO. Well hanging in there for someone to pluck it off the tree anyway....GL all longs.


----------



## Pommiegranite

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Basic question...but how do I get the 1 for 3 offer shares to show up in my Etrade account?


----------



## PhoenixXx

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Without any anns SP steeped to $2.90 last week and today back to $3.09.
I don't know whether today is just a one-day support and back to $2.9x or $3.00 as gold price didn't go up that much on the weekend.


----------



## Aedo

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



Pommiegranite said:


> Basic question...but how do I get the 1 for 3 offer shares to show up in my Etrade account?




There is a timetable in the company announcement which indicates that the new rights issue shares will be issued to commence trading on the 25th May (this information is also in the prospectus which you naturally read prior to taking up the offer  ) - they won't therefore be in your account now.


----------



## disarray

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



Pommiegranite said:


> Basic question...but how do I get the 1 for 3 offer shares to show up in my Etrade account?




when it happens CHESS will inform your sponsor who will update your details on their database afaik.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Looking forward to those $2.25 shares on Friday.  

Showing some unusual strength and volume so far today in a down market and gold sideways.

Was such a shame the spp and restructure was ann'd when it was as it was clearly breaking out of the 1 year sidways move from May 06. Oh well, maybe lucky. If the sp was toward the bottom of it's cycle it might have plummetted. 

I have read some contradictory reports on how the BGF acquisition is going and will go. LHG are forecasting some pretty big numbers for gold output, while some analysts are thinking they are a tad optimistic. They need to get it right or they'll be in the dog house I feel. Ballarat is just too close to Bendigo for my liking....


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



kennas said:


> Looking forward to those $2.25 shares on Friday.
> 
> Showing some unusual strength and volume so far today in a down market and gold sideways.
> 
> Was such a shame the spp and restructure was ann'd when it was as it was clearly breaking out of the 1 year sidways move from May 06. Oh well, maybe lucky. If the sp was toward the bottom of it's cycle it might have plummetted.
> 
> I have read some contradictory reports on how the BGF acquisition is going and will go. LHG are forecasting some pretty big numbers for gold output, while some analysts are thinking they are a tad optimistic. They need to get it right or they'll be in the dog house I feel. Ballarat is just too close to Bendigo for my liking....



Kennas, on my data, LHG is bumping up against it's all time EOD high. I can't see the reason for it doing so... but it just is. It looks to be close to breaking out on volume with strength. If it can hold these levels when the new shares come on, it will well and truly be at an all time high (or equivalent). We'll see what happens from here... but I'm not complaining.  

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## the barry

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



kennas said:


> Looking forward to those $2.25 shares on Friday.
> ...




Have you recieved notification on wether you have got them yet or will they show up in the account on friday?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



the barry said:


> Have you recieved notification on wether you have got them yet or will they show up in the account on friday?



I used my Margin Lending account to buy these and the money has been taken from the account, so I can only assume that LHG are going to give me the stock. The retail offer was undersubscribed by $27m which was sold to institutions, so if you applied, you'll get the allocation. Wish they had have offered retail more shares since it was undersubscribed. Who wouldn't have bought more shares at $2.25? Crazy!   Will be interesting to see the reaction after Friday. Not sure if anyone would have a great reason to cash in on the day. Cheers.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



the barry said:


> Have you recieved notification on wether you have got them yet or will they show up in the account on friday?



Did you get yours Barry? Stock is about even at the moment, so not many people are taking the stag profit which is good I suppose. Now we just need the Middle East to stay hot, POI up, US interest rates down, $US up, gold up, and LHG up. Easy.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

Gold forming an ascending triangle of sorts and looking bullish to break up IMO. Better analysis is in the gold thread. LHG also ascending and approaching top of triangle at 3.25 and a break through here will probably coincide with gold break up through $690. Not in the bag of course but I've got a fuzzy feeling at the moment.  Perhaps that's the hangover. :

PS, still worried about the BGF acquisition.


----------



## the barry

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*



kennas said:


> Did you get yours Barry? Stock is about even at the moment, so not many people are taking the stag profit which is good I suppose. Now we just need the Middle East to stay hot, POI up, US interest rates down, $US up, gold up, and LHG up. Easy.




Just checked the account, mine have showed up. Got the whole allocation so very happy about that. Just on a side note, I bought normandy mining many a moon ago when they unhedged their position in the hope of a takeover. Am hoping for a similar outcome with this one in the long run. As you say, just need the spot price to head north.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: LHG - Lihir Gold*

_LGL_ was in the bed and someone said roll over, roll over. So _LGL_ rolled over and it fell out with its head bashed in and its balls hanging out. Please remember to tie a knot in your pyjamas!

Out today... and I'm glad as well. Gold might finally be breaking to the down side...

Good luck, but it doesn't look pretty.


----------



## Sean K

Approaching potential breakout region maybe, being supported by POG atm. Perhaps if POG breaks $690 this will break through.  If not, back down she goes probably.....

(holding, holding, holding....getting bored with this up and down cr@p!)


----------



## Sean K

That Quartely looked pretty good to me. 

I think Lihir island is in the bag now it's de-hedged and the new power plant is cooking, but the BGF comments give me a warm and fuzzy. These guys are now unhedged and debt free! What's next? Surely they should be looking to further acquisitions to stave off predators, but I am lobbying for an Austalian gold mining super company. A tie up between NCM and LHG. They MUST be thinking about it. Gotta be. Great synergies, common values, and they've got to stop the US/Canadians/Sud Afrikanas from buying out all our decent gold fields!!! 

Come on boys, get your act together. Save our gold!!!


----------



## Sean K

One of a few green ones today, probably on POG strength and the upcoming TSX listing ann today seen below. 

I've been adding to my gold holdings the past few months that may benefit from USD turning into toilet paper. 

Chartwise, not a bad breakout through $3.25 ish.


----------



## chops_a_must

"Chartwise, not a bad breakout through $3.25 ish. "

On my adjusted data Kennas, it is a clear blue sky break through resistance. Looks pretty strong really.


----------



## rustyheela

*LGL listing on the TSX*

you would think this, positive p.o.g., and now with the hedge unwound, this would be very positive for Lihir!!
                                                Go figure!!


----------



## Whiskers

Looks like a doji has formed around $3.52. 

Anyone have any ideas? Is this the end of the run for now?


----------



## Sean K

Whiskers said:


> Looks like a doji has formed around $3.52.
> 
> Anyone have any ideas? Is this the end of the run for now?



More spinning top than a doji, indicating indecision, more than reversal. They both need follow on action for confirmation of trend reversal. Likely to get a clue one way or the other tonight. If rates are lowered .50 then I think it will continue up. If rates are on hold, POG will come off. If dropped .25, could go either way, but probably come off. I think .25 drop is definately factored in, .50 less so. Just as a pluck.


----------



## Sean K

Will probably see it nudge all time highs here. Potential breakout perhaps? Will be interesting to see how it pans out.

Will probably see profit taking across the board today and maybe even gold. US disaster still looms IMO which could take all stocks with it as we have seen previously...

Still treading cautiously.


----------



## chops_a_must

kennas said:


> Will probably see it nudge all time highs here. Potential breakout perhaps? Will be interesting to see how it pans out.
> 
> Will probably see profit taking across the board today and maybe even gold. US disaster still looms IMO which could take all stocks with it as we have seen previously...
> 
> Still treading cautiously.




Ah well, on my data it is at all time highs... which makes sense. Apparently it went nuts on its debut on the TSX last night. So... who knows?


----------



## PhoenixXx

chops_a_must said:


> Ah well, on my data it is at all time highs... which makes sense. Apparently it went nuts on its debut on the TSX last night. So... who knows?




Broke couple resistances on $3.50-ish and now sitting at record high. Getting a bit jittery here. Profit taking anybody?


----------



## Sean K

PhoenixXx said:


> Broke couple resistances on $3.50-ish and now sitting at record high. Getting a bit jittery here. Profit taking anybody?



Embarassingly, I've lost track of what my plan was with this. Been holding for years and buying on the way up at each breakout. I think reviewing the chart, $2.75 would be where I would be selling on the downside, but profit taking.....not sure..... Maybe around $20. LOL


----------



## PhoenixXx

kennas said:


> Embarassingly, I've lost track of what my plan was with this. Been holding for years and buying on the way up at each breakout. I think reviewing the chart, $2.75 would be where I would be selling on the downside, but profit taking.....not sure..... Maybe around $20. LOL




Thx for your input kennas. I have to think deeply on this one. For short term, may have a bit of retracement. But for long term, who knows it could reach $20 as you said. Picture this as NCM


----------



## Whiskers

kennas said:


> More spinning top than a doji, indicating indecision, more than reversal. They both need follow on action for confirmation of trend reversal. Likely to get a clue one way or the other tonight. If rates are lowered .50 then I think it will continue up. If rates are on hold, POG will come off. If dropped .25, could go either way, but probably come off. I think .25 drop is definately factored in, .50 less so. Just as a pluck.




Thanks for that Kennas. I was so focused on the days action that I didn't notice the high tail on the day before. By close time it was certainly more like a spinning top. 

Anyway. I decided to hold yesterday, and had to go out all morning and I had the finger on the sell button when it hit $3.83/4 late today, while switching across to see what the gold price was doing, but in the end decided to hold. 

Just on a gut feeling that the gold price will hold tonight, and the inevetable correction the day after... or was that just a lack of courage to take the profit!

Thanks also phoenixXx and Chops for your input. I'll be watching close with the finger ready on the sell button in the morning.


----------



## Sean K

PhoenixXx said:


> But for long term, who knows it could reach $20 as you said. Picture this as NCM



LOL, I was joking Phoenix. Perhaps I should have put a bigger smilie with a wink.   This is trading at a massive pe already, at $20 it would be insane. Most extravegant takeover offer wouldn't be much more than $5.30 IMO. Unless POG goes to $2000++!


----------



## So_Cynical

Theres a lot of LGL shares changing hands today and a nice % jump in price...anyone know why.

Is it time to bail...im feeling greedy.


----------



## SGB

So_Cynical said:


> Is it time to bail...im feeling greedy.




Nice call S_C  I had that same feeling this morning and bailed out on open due to over reaching my planned target. 

Good luck 

SGB


----------



## Sean K

So_Cynical said:


> Theres a lot of LGL shares changing hands today and a nice % jump in price...anyone know why.
> 
> Is it time to bail...im feeling greedy.



I thought about taking a few off today, but greed probably got the better of me. It will crash now....

The last $1.00 rise has been spectacular, and I thought the break through $3.25 was the trigger, but was linked to POG cracking $690. I reckon the rise has been: 60% due to POG. 20% for being unhedged. 10% TXS listing and 10% takeover premium.


----------



## reece55

kennas said:


> I thought about taking a few off today, but greed probably got the better of me. It will crash now....
> 
> The last $1.00 rise has been spectacular, and I thought the break through $3.25 was the trigger, but was linked to POG cracking $690. I reckon the rise has been: 60% due to POG. 20% for being unhedged. 10% TXS listing and 10% takeover premium.




It's looking very nice from where I sit Kennas, uncharted territory......

The pent up pressure in this one prior to 7 Sept really illustrates why statistically speaking, stocks are only trending 10 - 20% of the time..... I'm just wondering when it's going to retrace.... Any wave counts here?????? IV presently 50% at the moment in this one - from about 25%..... Great for stock/warrant/option holders alike! 

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

reece55 said:


> Any wave counts here?????? IV presently 50% at the moment in this one - from about 25%..... Great for stock/warrant/option holders alike!
> 
> Cheers



Yes, uncharted territory which is of course lovely to see after hanging in there over the past 15 months. It's pe must be cracking 100 now which concerns me a little. It may be getting out of reach for an initial takeover approach too.... 

Let's say it's a wave 1 of 5 wave up.


----------



## So_Cynical

Volume of 20+ mill today and the price only eased a little...thats good right.

Any1 want to guess why the big volumes the last 2 days.?


----------



## SGB

So_Cynical said:


> Volume of 20+ mill today and the price only eased a little...thats good right.
> 
> Any1 want to guess why the big volumes the last 2 days.?




Hi S_C

I'll have a stab at it.

Yesterday LGL in open sky.
Today Gold currently down $11.00 as I type. In fact its been down most of the day. Interesting to see how it ends when I awake in the wee hours.

SGB


----------



## bean

Is this another that may have formed a nice head and shoulders ???

As you may gather I am short term bearish on POG


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Is this another that may have formed a nice head and shoulders ???
> 
> As you may gather I am short term bearish on POG



No, it's not a H&S yet bean. Can you put a chart up to show me yours and then I'll show you mine. 

'Bearish' as in it's going to consolidate, or fall back through $690 ish support?


----------



## the barry

Haven't posted on the old lgl for a while. Tsx listing and unhedging its position has done this wonders. Is today an all time closing high?


----------



## explod

the barry said:


> Haven't posted on the old lgl for a while. Tsx listing and unhedging its position has done this wonders. Is today an all time closing high?




Yes this it it.  Interesting in the Financial Review they were talking about Lihir and Newcrest and report that they are good but running costs particularly fuel would take the shine off.  They seem to forget Lihir has its own thermal power plant which is saving heaps.   LGL I love ya.


----------



## So_Cynical

the barry said:


> Is today an all time closing high?



Was thinking the same thing myself and assumed it was.

I'm so glad im holding LGL. Ive been tempted to sell over the last 
few weeks...new highs etc, but deep down i know it would be crazy 
to sell with the POG below 1000 USD/AUD.


----------



## Sean K

bean said:


> Is this another that may have formed a nice head and shoulders ???
> 
> As you may gather I am short term bearish on POG



Came out with a downgrade and has underperformed POG quite a bit the past few weeks. 

I'm see a ascending triangle, although being a long term holder, I may be misled...

If it hasn't been able to run away here, then not sure what will drive it? Probably only takeover, or speculation of. 

Concerned now that the inevitable POG correction (one day) will be poor for the sp....

Technically though, that triangle is looking probable...


----------



## So_Cynical

_Quote link_http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22781793-661,00.html
SUCCESSFUL rescue operation has freed 27 miners after a mine collapse near Ballarat this morning. All workers initially trapped are now safe and well on the surface.

The mine is owned by Lihir Gold Limited. The company is expected to issue a statement this morning.

So any idea how big the hit on Lihir will be today?


----------



## chewy

I think LGL had a green day. As far as I know this mine is tiny compared to the amount they mine at PNG - so it may not really effect them.


----------



## So_Cynical

Im amazed...Lihir have major "event" at there second mine..makes
national news and will result in some lost production..and there SP goes up.

Just amazing.


----------



## Arturius

I'm thinking seriously about a short on Lihir, there's a strong head and shoulders pattern, plus the volume numbers seem to indicator more aggressive sellers then buyers. It looks like a very strong short opportunity for a swing trade.


----------



## chewy

Arturius said:


> I'm thinking seriously about a short on Lihir, there's a strong head and shoulders pattern, plus the volume numbers seem to indicator more aggressive sellers then buyers. It looks like a very strong short opportunity for a swing trade.




I'm thinking that could be a good way to lose money...Gold and Lihir both look strong imo


----------



## Sean K

I think it's a knee jerk to the downgrade.

Been punished a bit too much perhaps.

Expecting support around old all time highs to hold, but with POG vulnerable, maybe not.


----------



## VViCKiD

Hi Kennas, what would you consider "old all time highs" ?
Macquarie Bank apparantly had a price target of $.80 some time ago.
I wonder if that target still stands. Any comments ?


----------



## Sean K

VViCKiD said:


> Hi Kennas, what would you consider "old all time highs" ?
> Macquarie Bank apparantly had a price target of $.80 some time ago.
> I wonder if that target still stands. Any comments ?



Should be support around the blue line which was old all time highs. 80 cents? Golly. They must be expecting POG to go back to $200.  LGL is riding POG, and if it continues to climb then so will LGL. The Fed will cut rates again and again it seems which will put further pressure on USD supporting POG. Oil isn't going down too much any time soon so inflation will continue on up. World gold output is shrinking and the Indians and Chinese are going to keep buying more as their economies get out of the ice age. All adds up to increased POG/LGL. If LGL get down under $3 again, I wouldn't be surprised if they will have to announce that Newcrest, Newmont, Anglo, Goldcorp, or Barrick have become substantial holders....


----------



## thevadd

Hi Kennas

Could you pl explain what is POG ?  what is the ratio POG/LGL ?  Sorry I am  a newbie

Thanks


----------



## Sean K

thevadd said:


> Hi Kennas
> 
> Could you pl explain what is POG ?  what is the ratio POG/LGL ?  Sorry I am  a newbie
> 
> Thanks



 Sorry.

Price Of Gold = POG.  

Price Of Oil = POO.

Price of Uranium = POU

Make up any others you like! 


There is no ratio as such, just that LGL as a pure gold play and now unhedged will follow POG to a large extent, along with the general market.


----------



## VViCKiD

Wow.. looks like the price of LGL has really broken below support lines ?
Any one thinking this is the beginning of a major retreat ??


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Not sure, small production downgrade, looking to better figures in the future.

What's the old saying - buy when there's blood in the streets.

Down 7% today, solid support at 345, time to top up position?


----------



## So_Cynical

VViCKiD said:


> Wow.. looks like the price of LGL has really broken below support lines ?
> Any one thinking this is the beginning of a major retreat ??




I would like to think no..but its all about POG...IMO its top up time
cept im 100% commited 

Was thinking today that LGL must be close to the biggest unhedged gold producer in the world...im assuming 
Newcrest, Newmont, Anglo, Goldcorp, and Barrick are all to big to unhedge.


----------



## rederob

Uncle Festivus said:


> Not sure, small production downgrade, looking to better figures in the future.
> 
> What's the old saying - buy when there's blood in the streets.
> 
> Down 7% today, solid support at 345, time to top up position?



3-year log chart has support pegged under $3.30.
I have bid 2.5k at $3.35 and will slide that down if POG dips badly tonight.
Otherwise, LGL is oversold and in bargain territory again.


----------



## chops_a_must

rederob said:


> 3-year log chart has support pegged under $3.30.
> I have bid 2.5k at $3.35 and will slide that down if POG dips badly tonight.
> Otherwise, LGL is oversold and in bargain territory again.




I'm looking for this to fill the gap around 3.20, and that's what I'll be hunting. If you are right red, and there is strong support in that area, it has the potential for a very good two way trade here. But if someone like waves is right, and this is the end of a W5 pattern, it could continue much lower.

I still think, this is without doubt the best exposure to gold over the long term you can get in Australia.


----------



## barrett

I agree that this is the premium Aust-listed gold exposure.  But in terms of portfolio allocation, a point to keep in mind is that their main activity is operating a gold mine inside a not-quite-extinct volcano, below sea level on a remote island, in a failed state!
I'm making them sound bad.  LGL is still my biggest gold holding even though I also buy the Canadian-listed golds.  Production increasing, costs declining, massive resource, well undervalued on mcap/resources, mcap/reserves.  I wouldn't put like, more than 10% of my portfolio into them though.  

They probably will go to $3.20 or below in coming weeks given the weakness in the gold sector.  At that price or below they would be a great long-term buy IMO.  But LGL tends to rebound quickly - and ahead of the other gold stocks - so for those looking to buy, to catch them at the lows I would be inclined to place stink bids on days when gold is getting hammered. GLTA -Barrett


----------



## Sean K

rederob said:


> 3-year log chart has support pegged under $3.30.






chops_a_must said:


> I'm looking for this to fill the gap around 3.20, and that's what I'll be hunting.



Yes, I would like to add another blue line to my chart above at $3.25 which was super resistance over the past year. Should be a good opportunity around these levels I reckon, although I'm already holding too many probably. Wouldn't want Lihir to erupt as alluded to above.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

There goes your 325 Kennas. Topping up at these levels, gold prices still holding, but rest of market taking a (blood) bath! 

On fundamentals alone, LGL now oversold, even with short term production downgrade?


----------



## So_Cynical

Never thought i would see LGL fall so hard with POG holding so well.:asdf:

even with the prod downgrade...Its amazing really.


----------



## Nyden

So_Cynical said:


> Never thought i would see LGL fall so hard with POG holding so well.:asdf:
> 
> even with the prod downgrade...Its amazing really.





I'm just glad I didn't buy in on Friday, just ouch 
This has really been hit hard last 2 sessions, I think I'll keep my remainding cash in the ING account!

I would think in such a market, gold/gold stocks would be doing very well...odd times.


----------



## barrett

With that huge reversal today - I suspect the intra-day low of $2.94 today will be 'the bottom' for LGL.  

The HUI gold stock index last night reached the 0.5 retracement point of its Aug-Oct rally - off this level we may get a bounce in the gold sector in general now, given that the negative sentiment on the gold stocks seems.. a bit overdone relative to the fundamentals.


----------



## explod

barrett said:


> With that huge reversal today - I suspect the intra-day low of $2.94 today will be 'the bottom' for LGL.
> 
> The HUI gold stock index last night reached the 0.5 retracement point of its Aug-Oct rally - off this level we may get a bounce in the gold sector in general now, given that the negative sentiment on the gold stocks seems.. a bit overdone relative to the fundamentals.




I agree but we need to see a s/p rise from this reverse hammer to confirm and a jump in the gold price (which I expect) will assist.   Plenty of buying came in at the close too.

Interesting and testing times


----------



## Uncle Festivus

All I can say is that I've been waiting a while for today & loaded the truck up with LGL all the way to the bottom. After all, we're talking a 34% retracement from the very recent highs for this stock, even discounting the minor downgrade with gold holding it's ground.

As per gold thread, a bottom in POG maybe close at hand (or at least a decisive break out, up or down within the next 3 weeks?), so a tentative bullish stance, subject to the general market not throwing another hissy fit.


----------



## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> All I can say is that I've been waiting a while for today & loaded the truck up with LGL all the way to the bottom. After all, we're talking a 34% retracement from the very recent highs for this stock, even discounting the minor downgrade with gold holding it's ground.
> 
> As per gold thread, a bottom in POG maybe close at hand (or at least a decisive break out, up or down within the next 3 weeks?), so a tentative bullish stance, subject to the general market not throwing another hissy fit.




Could not agree more.   Well undersold.  The reversal was confimed on the chart for me today and pleased to back on this one.  Having said that I have always been a bit tentative of this one due to its location near to earth faults and soverign risk. P/N seem to be playing the game well at the moment.  Just my 2 cents.


----------



## Sean K

explod said:


> Could not agree more.   Well undersold.  The reversal was confimed on the chart for me today



Yep, it well reversed and I picked up a few more on this, but it's come back down quite considerably. Where's that bloody takeover! 

Come on NCM and LGL, hold hands!! Would solve some of both your problems. 

1. sovereign risk
2. high cash costs
3. one or two deposit risk
4. limited exploration upside
5. one of you will be taken by a foreigner soon, stay Australian!
6. newcrest lihir gold (NLG) has a ring to it..

LGL coiling a bit, but looks more descending to me. 

How about an upgrade for a change!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Sean K

Looks to be breaking well up from that formation above. 

And, unbelievably, some good news from Lihir and a possible upgrade. Unheard of in my 12 or so years owning the stock! 



> LGL REPORTS PROMISING DRILLING RESULTS AT LIHIR ISLAND.
> 
> UPDATES RESERVES AND RESOURCES
> 
> Lihir Gold Ltd (LGL) is pleased to report encouraging results from an ongoing drilling program at Lihir Island, which will lead to an increase in the current resource estimate. Drilling results received from holes targeting an area east-northeast of planned mining development included the following intercepts:
> 
> • 86 metres at 3.96 grams per tonne
> • 210 metres at 3.40 grams per tonne
> • 101 metres at 2.99 grams per tonne
> • 94 metres at 3.02 grams per tonne.
> • 186 metres at 2.84 grams per tonne
> • 138 metres at 2.60 grams per tonne
> 
> These intercepts were returned from drill holes located outside of the existing resource. A table setting out the full results is included at Appendix One. Additional drilling is to be carried out this year, with results received to date indicating the likelihood of significant resource increases in this area.


----------



## Prospector

Hey Kennas

I dabbled with LGL  a few years ago (LHG) and got out a few years ago, then on January 2 bought in again nicely at $3.60 and have generally seen blue sky since.  Reason for buying in was we saw it being involved in a takeover.  Nice to see we think alike, and the positive news today just added to pleasure.  Guess I am a little less patient than you!


----------



## the barry

kennas said:


> Looks to be breaking well up from that formation above.
> 
> And, unbelievably, some good news from Lihir and a possible upgrade. Unheard of in my 12 or so years owning the stock!




Hey kennas, 12 years.... what price did you get in at? Finally all things appear to be coming together at once for this stock, positive news and higher gold prices. At present the move to unhedge looks like paying some serious dividends, has to be looking like a serious takeover prospect.


----------



## explod

the barry said:


> Hey kennas, 12 years.... what price did you get in at? Finally all things appear to be coming together at once for this stock, positive news and higher gold prices. At present the move to unhedge looks like paying some serious dividends, has to be looking like a serious takeover prospect.




The large institutional buys this afternoon would indicate a big rerate of this stock going forward.    A lovely ride.


----------



## Sean K

the barry said:


> Hey kennas, 12 years.... what price did you get in at?



First bought in 96 around $1.75 ish and have been buying and selling ever since. Was lucky to pick up quite a few in 00. Haven't sold any since 04, and have just been adding on dips. Pretty significant break up today on huge volume.  

Could just as easy have an eathquake destroy the mine tomorrow too...


----------



## explod

kennas said:


> First bought in 96 around $1.75 ish and have been buying and selling ever since. Was lucky to pick up quite a few in 00. Haven't sold any since 04, and have just been adding on dips. Pretty significant break up today on huge volume.
> 
> Could just as easy have an eathquake destroy the mine tomorrow too...




Absolutely, that and the soveriegn risk is what has held me back from taking a big slice.  But good none the less.

But an engineer on the project there I ran into at Nandi, Fiji of all places a few years ago (we were both fairly inebriated) stated that they are sitting on a mountain of the stuff at mich higher grades is  still to be revealed.  Maybe this it it as announced today .


----------



## urgalzmine

Hey Guys

I have been watching LGL and bought and sold it last few years but I am concerned with the gold mines in PNG.

They are on very unstable volcanic ground. I believe they are using some geothermal system that reduces their cost as they dont use diesel.

I think last year the mine callapsed? sounds pretty risky cant they just use cynide like all the other miners


----------



## Sean K

urgalzmine said:


> I think last year the mine callapsed? sounds pretty risky cant they just use cynide like all the other miners



Mine collapsed? RightO. Maybe there was a road close even? 

Yes, sovereign risk, one real mine (Ballarat unknown, IMO) earthquakes, etc etc. They also have about 20m oz au at great grades expanding. It's a risk/reward decision.


----------



## barrett

urgalzmine said:


> Hey Guys
> 
> I have been watching LGL and bought and sold it last few years but I am concerned with the gold mines in PNG.
> 
> They are on very unstable volcanic ground. I believe they are using some geothermal system that reduces their cost as they dont use diesel.
> 
> I think last year the mine callapsed? sounds pretty risky cant they just use cynide like all the other miners




Hi, the mine itself didn't collapse, but in late 05 there was an earth landslide along about 1km of the access road between the township and the mine which cut water&power to the mill.  The island is believed to be geotechnically a little unstable but I agree that the 20Moz reserves, within a 40Moz OP resource grading a respectable 3g/t, compensate for the small risk of serious tectonic or volcanic activity.  That's taking into account Lihir's relatively low Mcap/oz among mid/large caps globally, well controlled cash costs and increasing production with mill expansion to be financed from free cash flow.
That said, I have to admit to having had a rough morning when that 8.1undersea quake and tsunami went off in the Solomons last year.. directly in line with the island it's not called the rim of fire for nothing :evilburn:


----------



## urgalzmine

Oh well LGL has more reserves than NCM, lets hope mother nature doesnt have a bad day.

Good luck with this one dudes


----------



## Sean K

Back to resistance around the $4.35 mark. The Feds doing it's best to help POG along. The mc of this is probably getting out of reach for a takeover, unless POGs seen to be long term much higher. Maybe I'll get a dividend one day?


----------



## Sean K

This one's out of the blue to me.


MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Papua New Guinea's Lihir Gold Ltd. (LGL.AU) said Thursday that it had agreed to an all-stock takeover of Equigold NL (EQI.AU) worth about A$1.1 billion to geographically diversify and eliminate "single mine asset risk." 

Under the deal, Equigold shareholders will get 33 Lihir shares for every 25 Equigold shares they own, Lihir and Equigold said in a joint statement. Based on last closing prices on the Australian Stock Exchange, the deal values Perth-based Equigold at A$5.33 a share, a 24% premium from its close at A$4.30. Lihir last traded at A$4.04. 

The combined market capitalization of the two companies will be about A$9 billion, Lihir said. 

"This new company will hold a portfolio of long life, high quality assets in diverse geographic locations, effectively eliminating single mine asset risk and leading to improved valuations for the combined group," Lihir Chief Executive Arthur Hood said in the statement. 

After the merger, Lihir, which is expected to mine at least 700,000 ounces of gold this year at the PNG island of the same name, will also have operations in Ballarat and Mount Rawdon in Australia and Bonikro in the Ivory Coast. Production of about 1.2 million ounces is expected in 2009 and 2010, Lihir said. 

Equigold directors, which own about 10.4% of the company's shares, intend to vote in favor of the takeover in the absence of a better offer. Equigold Managing Director Mark Clark will join Lihir and report to Hood.


----------



## Sean K

From LGL in the ann:



> For LGL, the merger will:
> 
> • Provide important diversification benefits, immediately adding cashflows from Equigold’s Mt Rawdon operation in Queensland, with Bonikro in Ivory Coast to be in production by the end of July;
> • Establish a substantial base for growth in the highly prospective greenstone belt in Ivory Coast, where Equigold has reported promising drill results on extensive exploration tenements, which are expected to lead to significant growth in resources and reserves;
> • Increase management capability and operational strength through the addition of high quality executive management and production teams at Mt Rawdon and Bonikro;
> • Increase net present value per share, creating strong financial returns for shareholders.




I'm certainly happy about the diversification, but unsure about EQIs assets...


----------



## Young Gun

You want to see something spooky , compare the LGL and EQI charts together on one chart, they line up 90% each movement.


----------



## oldblue

Young Gun said:


> You want to see something spooky , compare the LGL and EQI charts together on one chart, they line up 90% each movement.





Not surprising if they also correlate with the price of gold.

Do they also line up with other gold producers, eg Newcrest?


----------



## Sean K

Having gone through EQI's last few anns and presentations I'm pretty happy with the deal. Low cost producer, prospective exploration, low hedging. 

My only disappointment is that I've been hoping for a takeover for LGL at a whopping premium and then a bidding war. Less likely now perhaps? Or, with the diversification, does it make it tastier?  

That bid 156K@4.45 can't be real can it?


----------



## Sean K

Like the growth story here:



> DJ Equigold: Lihir Merger May Mean More Ivory Coast Acquisition
> 
> 20/03/2008 10:07AM AEST
> 
> MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Lihir Gold Ltd.'s (LGL.AU) all-stock takeover of Equigold, worth about A$1.1 billion, provides the opportunity for more acquisitions near Equigold's Ivory Coast mine, Equigold Managing Director Mark Clark said Thursday.
> 
> There is "potential to provide more growth through mergers and acquisitions" in West Africa, Clark said in a presentation to discuss the takeover deal, which has been agreed to by Equigold's board. Equigold's Bonikro mine in Ivory Coast is due to start producing about 120,000 ounces of gold a year from July, Clark said.




I think I'm the only one here in this though, so I'm probably talking to myself.  Sorry.


----------



## grace

Equigold was on my shopping list after I cleared out of Monarch.  Should have shopped sooner.

Biggest thing is keeping the power up to those African mines these days!

I do like equigold though.


----------



## oldblue

Price movement correlation has been strong over last 3 months,

EQI +25%
LGL +30% 
and NCM +20%

Not so strong over last 12 months!

EQI +180%
LGL +32%
and NCM + 80%



Disc: Don't hold any; wish I did!


----------



## adobee

oldblue said:


> Price movement correlation has been strong over last 3 months,
> 
> EQI +25%
> LGL +30%
> and NCM +20%
> 
> Not so strong over last 12 months!
> 
> EQI +180%
> LGL +32%
> and NCM + 80%
> 
> 
> 
> Disc: Don't hold any; wish I did!




I hold lots of them but seem to be loosing money today !!! I am happy to sell them to you at yesterdays price


----------



## Prospector

One day, I will buy a share that stays as I have purchased it.  So another of my two shares merge!  I guess it doesnt really matter to me if it is a good deal or not, does it!


----------



## VViCKiD

This merger has really devalued my lgl stocks ...  Does this huge price drop indicate that the market is not pleased with this merger?


----------



## Goldmann

Maybe.. dont forget Gold had dropped close to 10% at noon...!!! all gold stocks are being torched... Newcrest down 12%!!!...

Still a correction was neccesary, and predicted by most things I read.


----------



## reece55

VViCKiD said:


> This merger has really devalued my lgl stocks ...  Does this huge price drop indicate that the market is not pleased with this merger?




No, every commodity stock is going down today.. Have a look at the price of gold, it has made a fairly substantial retracement in the last couple of days. US gold stocks were down similar amounts last night....

Cheers


----------



## So_Cynical

I'm not sure what to make of the take over/merger  didn't see it coming at all..  still LGL really 
needed to get out of the 1 mine company thing and theres limited local choice so EQI is the 
best of a bad bunch...AND would of been a better choice.

Anyway people its, Côte d'Ivoire not Ivory coast...OK.

PNG is less politically risky than Côte d'Ivoire IMHO. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Côte_d'Ivoire


----------



## eddyeagle

LGL is one I have had on my watchlist for ages, but the lack of mine diversification and history of dissapointing announcements has kept me from buying in and instead i have opted for other gold stocks. 

Surely, this takeover is a good thing as it increases mine diversification and reduces the risk. Today's 11% price drop (related to today's sharp gold price drop) also makes this stock look more attractive! 

A double bonus IMO!


----------



## AnDy62

My thinking too Eddy, this correction in gold is just that a correction. The fundamental reasons for gold rising have not been altered by a o.75% cut compared to a 1% cut by the Fed. Surely this would be a good buying opportunity? Thoughts folks?


----------



## explod

AnDy62 said:


> My thinking too Eddy, this correction in gold is just that a correction. The fundamental reasons for gold rising have not been altered by a o.75% cut compared to a 1% cut by the Fed. Surely this would be a good buying opportunity? Thoughts folks?




Absolutely.  No one can pick a bottom or a top but gold is going up in the bigger picture and LGL is fast becoming a huge producer.  I think the increased gramms per ton to come out of Lihir Island (from the last report) has gone over most analysts heads.

Thier reports are not loaded and ramped like a lot of others, I still dont' like the volcanic site but I think my concerns of soveriegn risk have abated since Rudd improved relations with PNG


----------



## adobee

Whats the storey behind the big volume daily on LGL is this stock preferred by alot of traders, do people trade in an out dependent on the gold price ?


----------



## Egabeava

Link to a Hot Stock report, good review on the reason to merge with Equigold http://www.theage.com.au/news/money/hot-stock/2008/03/31/1206850806208.html


----------



## Sean K

Egabeava said:


> Link to a Hot Stock report, good review on the reason to merge with Equigold http://www.theage.com.au/news/money/hot-stock/2008/03/31/1206850806208.html



Thanks Beava, nice to see something positive on the merger, even if it is from a Fat Profits analyst, who seem to be a good contraindicator at the moment. 

I think if the Bonikro project comes in on time and delivers the ounces forecast it will be a big positive for the merged entity. However, I think the real upside value will be in the exploration potential in Côte d'Ivoire. LGL have had very limited exploration potential to date and simply relied on expanding Lihir.

From their website:



> Equigold has granted permits covering 6,300 square kilometers of prospective Birrimian greenstone belts. This equates to approximately 460 kilometres of strike extent of greenstone belts that have received minimal modern exploration. The greenstone belts in Ivory Coast are similar to or extensions of belts that have demonstrated gold abundances in the surrounding countries of Ghana, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Guinea. This West African geological setting has yielded numerous significant gold discoveries in the above countries and in Ivory Coast over recent years.
> 
> In addition to the above licenses, Equigold has a further 10 permit areas under application at 30 June 2007. These tenements and cover 8,300 square kilometres and when granted will take Equigold’s permit area to a massive 15,000 square kilometres, covering approximately 780 kilometres of prospective strike. The Company considers these ground holdings to provide an excellent opportunity to discover further significant gold deposits. The Company is aggressively exploring this licence package, with a significant budget allocated to both regional and resource definition exploration work in the coming years. Equigold now has exclusive use of four drill rigs in Ivory Coast, two RAB rigs, an RC rig and a diamond rig. These rigs enable the Company to drill in excess of 100,000 metres of drilling per annum.
> 
> Exploration efforts during the year have continued to reinforce the Board’s view that the broader Bonikro area (the area within a 25 kilometre radius of Bonikro) has the potential to ultimately yield a mineable gold portfolio of between 2.5 to 3.0 million ounces. Exploration efforts around the Bonikro Gold Project are focused on building resources towards this target to augment the first stage project already under construction and due for first gold production in April 2008.





Wonder what the new name will be? I think they should change it to reflect the diversity of the company now. Could be anything really.


----------



## Sean K

When will this discussion stop, and NCM finally circum to the most obvious corporate play in the market?



> 0850 [Dow Jones] Newcrest Mining (NCM.AU) could raise between A$320 million and A$350 million from the sale of its Cracow gold mine, Credit Suisse says. Says the consideration is likely to be cash and that Newcrest will not proceed with a sale unless it is value-accretive. *Says Newcrest needs to manage a disproportionate growth in its copper earnings relative to gold earnings in the future. "An acquisition by NCM of Lihir Gold (LGL.AU) would rebalance NCM's copper to gold inventory and largely alleviate NCM's medium-term copper production growth dilution issue," *CS says. Maintains Outperform rating with A$45 target price. (APW)




Come on NCM. Please....


----------



## eddyeagle

Massive spike in volume today on LGL - 1.281 bil shares traded! Can anyone explain this? Anything to do with a takeover?


----------



## Sean K

eddyeagle said:


> Massive spike in volume today on LGL - 1.281 bil shares traded! Can anyone explain this? Anything to do with a takeover?



Very unusual eddy. Must be an error. That's half it's market cap isn't it? Can't think of any reason. If it was a big buyer, on market, it would have reflected in an sp jump as well I think.


----------



## doctorj

kennas said:


> Very unusual eddy. Must be an error.



My data makes volume out to be 12,808,381 shares traded.  It's probably worth checking with your provider.


----------



## Sean K

doctorj said:


> My data makes volume out to be 12,808,381 shares traded.  It's probably worth checking with your provider.



3.15am ??? Big night? LOL 

I have 1.2b ish on two seperate providers. 

Big Charts and Interactive Charts.


----------



## doctorj

kennas said:


> I have 1.2b ish on two seperate providers.
> 
> Big Charts and Interactive Charts.



I just cross checked against ASX.com.au and that gives 12,808,381 as well.

Is it possible Big Charts and Interactive Charts get their data from the same place?


----------



## explod

In spite of all the above LGL had portfolio crossing trades, of I think to a total volume of about 11 million shares which occured at 5.30pm last night.   Could that just be paper shuffling by a large holder, or other??????


----------



## eddyeagle

The volume spike must be some kind of error, all my holdings have a massive spike in volume for the day!


----------



## Sean K

Been hammered since gold peaked and the merger was announced. 

Lots of support here between 2.75 and 3.25. Should hold unless all the factors contributing to gold rise the past few years turn around. Maybe they can? Could be considered a nasty double top there too... eeek

Latest news on the merger:



> *Equigold, Lihir move forward on merger*
> 10/04/2008 By: John Winters
> 
> Equigold NL (EQI) and Lihir Gold Limited (LGL) said a draft scheme booklet had been lodged for review with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) over the proposed merger of the two companies. Upon completion of the ASIC review, Equigold would be able to apply for a shareholder meeting to approve the scheme.
> 
> Equigold and Lihir said they both maintain strong and unanimous support for the merger and said the companies were working together very closely to implement the scheme.
> 
> Last month, the two companies announced they would merge through a scheme of arrangement to form a $9 billion business.
> 
> The combined group would have assets in Australia, West Africa and Papua New Guinea, producing in excess of 1.2 million ounces of gold a year from 2009.
> 
> “Equigold directors intend to vote all of the shares that they hold (or which are held on their behalf) in favour of the merger, in the absence of a superior proposal,” the groups announced in a statement.
> 
> “There has been strong shareholder support for the merger and Equigold and LGL look forward to implementing the scheme and delivering on the many benefits the combination will deliver for shareholders of both companies.”
> 
> The Equigold shareholder meeting is expected to be held in late May/early June 2008.


----------



## Fed23

With the merger coming up?

Is it better to buy LGL or EQI?

for every 25 EQI you would get 33 LGL. 

I'm already a holder of LGL but looking to increase my stake


----------



## imajica

Lihir has taken a hammering lately as the gold price has dropped sharply - At under $3 a share it is looking very tempting! Looking closely for the perfect entry!


----------



## eddyeagle

Taken from The Age today - looks like the news was already factored into the share price: 



_Lihir Gold says gold production fell 28% in the first quarter, following a scheduled shut down of a process plant in Papua New Guinea for maintenance.

The company produced 138,525 ounces in the three months ended March 30, down from 193,302 ounces in the same quarter last year.

Lihir shares closed up 0.3%, or 1 cent, at $2.94.

Lihir maintained its production guidance for calendar 2008.

''For the full year 2008, the company now expects to produce in excess of 850,000 ounces, with production boosted by the merger with Equigold, subject to completion as scheduled in June,'' it said.

The forecast assumes production of 700,000 to 770,000 ounces from its key Lihir Island operations, 40,000 to 50,000 ounces from Ballarat, 60,000 to 70,000 ounces from Bonikro and 50,000 ounces from Mt Rawdon after its merger Equigold NL merger.

Lihir said the cash gold price received for the March quarter rose to $US928 an ounce, from $US794 in the December quarter._


----------



## Sean K

Hooly dooly!! I have been taken for a bath through croc infested waters on LGL and NCM, back to 06 levels. eeeeek!!!

I doubted they would break those long term support lines but it ´s looking mighty tenuous. $2.50 and LGL is roof roof. 

Had the shorters switched from the financials to the goldies I wonder?


----------



## SGB

What a great medium term trading stock LGL has been in the last couple of years.

Finding a little bit of support now in the middle of the Pitchfork and buy signals with a crossover in the oversold MACD and a reverse in the Parabolic.
The D&S levels are starting to marry up as well which have been one sided for a couple of months.

Not suggesting that these are long term long signals but just enough to have a bit of a nibble.

SGB


----------



## Sean K

SGB said:


> Not suggesting that these are long term long signals but just enough to have a bit of a nibble.
> 
> SGB



Depends on where you think gold is going I reckon. Did we see a top? I am unsure right now. When will US interest rates bottom? When will POO peak? Is inflation about to be curbed? When ´s the next elephant gold field going to be dicovered by AZM with 1b oz au at 100g tn from 5m? LOL

Market seems to be factoring in a turn in the paradigm right now for some reason?

Or, healthy correction and buying opportunity?


----------



## eddyeagle

I am of the opinion that this is a healthy correction in the gold price... It has run hard in the last 6 months and I dont think we have seen all the implications of the credit crisis yet. I bought into LGL today at $2.99. 

Here is an article from City AM in London:


_01/05/2008 

WITH the global economy slowing down, the crunch tightening its grip and commodity prices soaring, equity markets are volatile and investors are looking for a safe heaven.

Over the long term, gold has proved a good hedge against the general rise in the prices of goods and services, as it is a hard asset and generally holds its value against paper assets in times of high inflation. 

Although inflation has generally needed to be above 5 per cent to have a major positive impact on gold, we think the possibility of upside surprises in both inflationary pressures and volatility is likely to lead investors to favour the asset over the next year. 

Second, gold has an inverse relationship with the US dollar. A key positive driver for the gold price over the next 12 months could be continued weakness in the currency. 

Further weakening in the tradeweighted value of the US currency is possible, as interest rates remain high around the globe and concerns about the large US current account deficit resurface. Gold has special properties which give it a dual function as both a currency and a commodity. 

TENSIONS 

Third, geopolitical tensions could prove supportive. Gold prices tend to appreciate when there are global threats to either security or energy supplies. 

The Turkey/Iraq and Iranian nuclear situations have caused price spikes, with the easing of these tensions resulting in price declines. These tensions could re-escalate. 

A fourth key support for gold is the rapid growth in emerging markets, where consumers in certain countries have always had a marked proclivity towards gold. 

Jewellery consumption accounts for about 70 per cent of total global demand for gold and, of that, over half of consumer demand in 2007 came from India, China, the Middle East and Turkey. Such demand is highly price-elastic and driven by changes in discretionary spending. 

Given the positive outlook for these economies and rising income growth among consumers, we think robust demand from these regions will further boost the current recovery in jewellery demand, after some softness in 2006.

Indeed, the strategic direction of China’s demand management is towards explicitly stimulating overall private consumption. 

Gold hit a three-month low yesterday and has declined 15 per cent since hitting a record high at $1,030.80 on 17 March. We are still positive on the outlook for gold prices over the next 12 months and have recently raised our price forecasts for 2008 and 2009. 

Gold may provide some much needed sparkle to a portfolio that has been tarnished by the recent market downturn. 

Source: Barclays Wealth Signpost Commodities, April 2008. 

Henk Potts is an equities analyst at Barclays Wealth_


----------



## Tukker

I don't think the full effects of the credit crunch are completely over. I'm guessing there will be a couple more media driven scares to come. People love to be scared. 



> VM Group London today issued a projection for an extremely wide trading range over the next 18 month, of from $700 to $1300 - but the latter is predicated on a catastrophic aggravation of the credit crisis...... We still expect a bit of stabilization and mild recovery as well as some better Indian offtake over the next four/five days but conditions remain fragile and trigger fingers nervous.
> _Jon Nadler
> Senior Analyst
> Kitco Bullion Dealers Montreal_
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/may022008A.html




I think the lower production costs will give LGL an advantage over its competitors in the coming year.


----------



## Fed23

merger has been approved by EQI shareholders and federal courts.

EQI will cease to exist at the end of tomorrow. This will all be over 18th June.


----------



## johenmo

With EQI all but done, the short term should prove interesting.  If the Dow drops by 30% as Bank of Scotland have claimed (see below) then my position of wait and see will be justified.  I have been interested in this but haven't been confident what I see in the charts.  Still getting to grips with them.

I'll keep this on a watchlist.  Anyone else thinking of taking a long term position?

_"A TOP UK credit strategist from Royal Bank of Scotland is warning clients that the US stockmarket could fall 30 per cent within three months and lead to one of the worst bear markets of the past 100 years. 

Bob Janjuah, a star credit analyst who correctly predicted the credit crisis before it kicked in last year, says the global economy is on a collision course with disaster because of high inflation, oil prices and continued fallout from the credit crunch. 

He says the US may see a rally into July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out and the delayed effects of the oil-price spike really do their damage. _


----------



## explod

johenmo said:


> I'll keep this on a watchlist.  Anyone else thinking of taking a long term position?
> 
> [/I]





Yes, I agree and have it on my watch also.   Production reports have a very big impact on sentiment and for a number of (fairly reasonable) reasons the last quarter was down on projections.  LGL seem to have improved operationally in the last few years but I will wait for the next quarterly, and of course the gold price action before going in.

Having said all that, they have mountains of gold, which seem to be improving slightly in grades so we shall see.

General stockmarket sentiment effects the larger players so I am factoring for greater opportunities following a market bottom, if I can pick it of course.


----------



## rederob

LHG has reduced sovereign risk.
It's slashed its hedgebook (with only the EQI legacy to resolve).
It is in the lower quartile of cost-producers, and with geothermal energy will remain there forever (given that all other energy costs have spiked).
It has reserves that give it an easy 10 year additional mine life averaging output greater than a million ounces a year.
In calendar 2009 it is likely to produce about 40% more gold than this year.
Its purchase of EQI gives it excellent greenfield potential through its extensive African tenements.
It's hard to find a better gold company to invest into - I can't!


----------



## hangseng

johenmo said:


> With EQI all but done, the short term should prove interesting.  If the Dow drops by 30% as Bank of Scotland have claimed (see below) then my position of wait and see will be justified.  I have been interested in this but haven't been confident what I see in the charts.  Still getting to grips with them.
> 
> I'll keep this on a watchlist.  Anyone else thinking of taking a long term position?
> 
> _"A TOP UK credit strategist from Royal Bank of Scotland is warning clients that the US stockmarket could fall 30 per cent within three months and lead to one of the worst bear markets of the past 100 years.
> 
> Bob Janjuah, a star credit analyst who correctly predicted the credit crisis before it kicked in last year, says the global economy is on a collision course with disaster because of high inflation, oil prices and continued fallout from the credit crunch.
> 
> He says the US may see a rally into July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out and the delayed effects of the oil-price spike really do their damage. _





The RBS warning and link.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/bcnrbs118.xml

Take care.


----------



## Sean K

With POG looking to break up (hopefully), should see some renewed support for LGL. 

EQI merger is dusted and they have closed their hedge book, so any mid to long term significant increases in POG is really going to support this you'd expect. 

Ballarat has reopened and should be contibuting shortly. Looking forward to production rates. Hopefully they don't have problems similar to BDG. Not sure if they are identical tyrpe deposits...

Should be some news from Lihir Island on the current drilling program and perhaps an upgrade to their already incredible reserves.

Last drill results were quite spectacular including:

210m @ 3.4 g/t
186m @ 2.84 g/t
138m @ 2.6 g/t

Further results should be out shortly.

Incredibly they already have 40.5 m oz @ 2.42 g/t total resources. 

I think less likely to be taken over now they have acquired BGF and EQI, but fingers still crossed....

Chart wise, found support at the 2.75 ish support line. Glad that held up.


----------



## johenmo

I'm interested in LGL but still watching.  Any comments/opinions re buy point?

Weekly chart:  Seems to supported about 3.00?  Kennas had it at 2.75, and his experience is way beyond mine.  Am I reading this wrong?  For a longer term hold (12 - 18 months) I am thinking a price about 2.85 - 2.90 if I can get it.

Will accept any opinions or comments as such.  And don't guarantee to act on it!!
Tks


----------



## explod

johenmo said:


> Will accept any opinions or comments as such.  And don't guarantee to act on it!!
> Tks





I would only buy on a stronger gold price.   Gold to breach $US1,000 and LGL to $3.50 on strong volume with a 5% stop loss.


----------



## Dutchy3

At a real crossroad this one .... lovely period of range trading ... not one I can actually trade because I just can't get my head around non trending markets ... but still when it moves it should be rapid.


----------



## DennisTheTrader

Hi All

I actually traded this one going down just this week and got over 50% ROI. I exited because I thought it could meet some support at around $3.00. 

If this was to continue down to the uptrend line, and then bounces off it, I may enter a trade with a bullish view. 

...Just my 2 cents


----------



## Sean K

Cripes,

LGL quarterly does not include a downgrade!! Whoooohoooo! Miracles do happen.

Disappointing to me, no upgrade to the overall resource but they will be in a position to provide a substancial one in the coming years. WTF? Coming years? 

Anyway, a nice change to the usual shortfalls.

Come one someone, where's the takeover I've been waiting for for 5 years?



*Lihir Gold's output rises 27pc *
July 30, 2008 

LIHIR Gold has reported a 27 per cent rise in second quarter gold production compared to the previous quarter, putting it on track to meet its full year production guidance.

The Papua New Guinean-focused miner, which completed a merger with Equigold NL on June 17, said production rose to 177,000 ounces in the six months to June 30, taking production for the half year to 316,000oz. 

Lihir said group production in calendar 2008 was expected to be over 850,000oz, in line with previous guidance. 

Managing director Arthur Hood said the merger with Equigold would help Lihir meet its annual production guidance. 

"The successful completion of the merger with Equigold firmly establishes a strong growth platform for Lihir as the ongoing transformation of the company continues,'' Mr Hood said.


----------



## Bolivia

Stock down over 20% since 14th July. Production report in line with expectation. Recent acquisitions bedded down. Hedge book closed. Resource upgrade in the wings. Gold still above $900/Oz. (Last time LGL traded at these levels gold was approx $630/Oz - US$ .79)

Any ideas why LGL is trading at these levels? Many analysts have it as a buy. (Macq/UBS just to name 2).

LGL has broken 2.74 support line. Where to from here?

Is it a screaming buy at these levels?


----------



## Sean K

Bolivia said:


> Stock down over 20% since 14th July. Production report in line with expectation. Recent acquisitions bedded down. Hedge book closed. Resource upgrade in the wings. Gold still above $900/Oz. (Last time LGL traded at these levels gold was approx $630/Oz - US$ .79)
> 
> Any ideas why LGL is trading at these levels? Many analysts have it as a buy. (Macq/UBS just to name 2).
> 
> LGL has broken 2.74 support line. Where to from here?
> 
> Is it a screaming buy at these levels?



Yes, breaking $2.75 ish is bad darts. Concerning, and surprising, considering where it is, as you have outlined. 

I can only assume that the market is factoring in gold to correct much further deep into the 800s. Gold stocks usually move ahead of POG for some reason (read that somewhere - to be corrected).

A screeming buy? It's hard to have any confidence in anything right now. I topped up some NCM this week, but wonder whether it was the right time. Considering your points, and that longer term POG is generally considered to be breaking all time highs again, you would have to consider this a good opportunity. (can't say buy, or you get your wrist slapped )

Seasonally, gold supposed to run up in the second half of the year. Fingers crossed.


----------



## Bolivia

What is also disturbing about the fall yesterday was the volume - 58mill shares. Was this some form of capitulation or does it smell of a Fundie selling out?

I hate to catch falling knives but at around 2.62, this stock really represents value IMO.

Might just have to go and cut my fingers!


----------



## VViCKiD

Seems like the buy orders are on the increase... hopefully we can find some fom of support around the $2.60 mark... it's astounding that LGL has reached these lows. Does anyone have a price target from brokers on this one ?


----------



## Sean K

Bolivia said:


> Might just have to go and cut my fingers!



I'm with you Bolivia.



VViCKiD said:


> Seems like the buy orders are on the increase... hopefully we can find some fom of support around the $2.60 mark... it's astounding that LGL has reached these lows. Does anyone have a price target from brokers on this one ?



I just google these sorts of questions and you get all types of information.

This was at the top of the list.

http://www.maximiseyourwealth.com.au/pdf/LGL.pdf

Target $3.93. 

(I assume 1 yr target)

$3.97 on this one:

https://www.investsmart.com.au/company_profile/summary/default.asp?SecurityID=LGL&ExchangeID=ASX


----------



## VViCKiD

thanks kennas...  the break of $2.70 has gotten me spooked... Not really sure what to do here ... any ideas of where next support is ?


----------



## Mofra

VViCKiD said:


> thanks kennas...  the break of $2.70 has gotten me spooked... Not really sure what to do here ... any ideas of where next support is ?



October 2006 support at/above $2.40 is a realistic possibility, this seems to be a very strong support level and I'd be fairly happy to see a drop here as an opportunity.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

BGF equities has a JORC Reserve valuation of over $5 per share for LGL -  undervalued/fair value/oversold? Not sure why gold stocks are lumped in with the rest of the market? Lack of fundamental focus, negative sentiment contagion?


----------



## Sean K

VViCKiD said:


> thanks kennas...  the break of $2.70 has gotten me spooked... Not really sure what to do here ... any ideas of where next support is ?



_Should_ be support around here, and then in that next zone between $2.00 and $2.50. Also the 200d ma should be support. 

Looks about oversold on RSI and stochs.  

Still intra day at the moment, so we could see a rebound as people take advantage of the weakness.

If you think gold is going up long term, this is a bump. 

Having said that, whose to know what's hiding in the wood pile.


----------



## Bolivia

Definately looks like a fundie getting out to me. Either that or someone is having a big short bet. 

Either way LGL is now trading on a 2009 PE of approx 10x.

Try finding a better gold stock on value with production growth to match.

I hear the reverse beep beep of a truck!


----------



## Sean K

At the moment, this chart does look pretty bearish considering the dramatic drop while gold has stayed at prices that will allow a non hedged producer to lap up massive profits in the coming months. It looks like a significant drop in gold is factored in to the sp right now.

The negatives for LGL in my opinion are:

Ongoing uncertainty over the Ballarat operation reaching forecast production targets due to regional disasters. (PSV and BDG)

The EQI acquisition at premuim at a peak in a general equities cycle. May have paid too much for just 'potential'. 

EQI key growth asset is yet to be on line. (forgotten name - too many rums)Like all developments will probably come in late and not produce the forecast ounces.

Lihir Island is a bloody volcano and sitting in the rim of fire and at any moment an earthquake could send them to the bottom of the ocean.

Positives:

Gold bulls are saying that POG is going $1000 plus by end of year and being unhedged will be a massive boost for the sp.

Great exploration potential with the EQI purchace and they could discover more massive reserves.

With the sp weakness a major MUST be looking at them as an add on, especially NCM which is now cashed up, unhedged, and needs to escape from the Telfer hitch perception. FFS, Cadia is bigger!! 

If the gold bulls are correct, then current sp, and probably more weakness, is an awesome opportunity.

Must say again, that general market implosion will destroy all before it, much like the Arc....


On a brightish note, that hammer looks like a positive sign but needs confirmation with some positive price action to confirm reversal.


----------



## VViCKiD

With the RBA speculated to be lowering interest rates, shouldn't this be a good sign for the short-term price of LGL ?


----------



## Bolivia

Data on Share sales from 31st July - The day 58 Mill shares traded, show that Merrill Lynch were the largest net seller of 38 Million shares. Given that they are on the register as owning 11.02% of the Co. This is starting to make sense. ML are raising capital!

They were also the largest net seller on the 30th July and have probably been active in the last few days as well. 

Merrill Lynch and Co. own 240Mill shares so they would have a few to go.

The good news, if this is indeed what is happening, is that at least it's not a hedge fund doing a short number.

Not sure where that places LGL as far as when to buy, but it would help to explain why it has been oversold.


----------



## VViCKiD

that would explain a bit.... man has this one copped a raping !!! hopefully it has reached support... looks like it... but hasn't started crossing over MA yet !! what an insane day for the resources ! selling hasn't stopped yet either..


----------



## hobi1

Bolivia said:


> Data on Share sales from 31st July - The day 58 Mill shares traded, show that Merrill Lynch were the largest net seller of 38 Million shares. Given that they are on the register as owning 11.02% of the Co. This is starting to make sense. ML are raising capital!
> 
> They were also the largest net seller on the 30th July and have probably been active in the last few days as well.
> 
> Merrill Lynch and Co. own 240Mill shares so they would have a few to go.
> 
> The good news, if this is indeed what is happening, is that at least it's not a hedge fund doing a short number.
> 
> Not sure where that places LGL as far as when to buy, but it would help to explain why it has been oversold.





Hi Bolivia,

It may well be possible that Merill is the custodian, and not the holder of these shares. Does it actually say ML & Co. owns these share?


----------



## johenmo

I have looked at this one for a while.  Whilst I don't have the expertise a lot of you have re charts and data, I do know expats on Lihir Island are pretty nervous about the government.  And all I'll say is if you know the people/government well, you have just cause.

I heard today from a mate on Lihir - not working for LGL but a support company - that the mine is no longer using thermal power (locals said forget it) and have gone back to fuel, costing a fair bit.  He was looking to buy but is standing back waiting to see how it goes re the political situation.  Sounds like it's getting more and more unstable as each week/month goes past.

Incidentally, someone's considering building a resort Lihir Island - for when the mine runs out.


----------



## So_Cynical

johenmo said:


> I heard today from a mate on Lihir - not working for LGL but a support company - that the mine is no longer using thermal power (locals said forget it) and have gone back to fuel, costing a fair bit.  He was looking to buy but is standing back waiting to see how it goes re the political situation.  Sounds like it's getting more and more unstable as each week/month goes past.
> 
> Incidentally, someone's considering building a resort Lihir Island - for when the mine runs out.




HUH ...not using thermal power...the plant that LGL installed and payed for?

political situation...what political situation? the locals are share holders.

No mine = no money.....resort  yer right.

Your shorting LGL ?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

johenmo said:


> I have looked at this one for a while.  Whilst I don't have the expertise a lot of you have re charts and data, I do know expats on Lihir Island are pretty nervous about the government.  And all I'll say is if you know the people/government well, you have just cause.
> 
> I heard today from a mate on Lihir - not working for LGL but a support company - that the mine is no longer using thermal power (locals said forget it) and have gone back to fuel, costing a fair bit.  He was looking to buy but is standing back waiting to see how it goes re the political situation.  Sounds like it's getting more and more unstable as each week/month goes past.
> 
> Incidentally, someone's considering building a resort Lihir Island - for when the mine runs out.




Nice downramp, but wrong!

The company has told me personally - 



> We currently have 56 Megawatts of geothermal capacity at the Lihir
> Island gold operation. This equates to around 75% of our current power
> needs at the site. The remainder is generated from Heavy Fuel Oil power.
> Further expansions of the geothermal power plant are planned in the
> future due to the significant economic and environmental benefits that
> are derived from this inexpensive and green power source.


----------



## VViCKiD

Well it looks like LGL has fallen through a minor line of support.. next stop ~$1.80 ? what do you guys think ?


----------



## So_Cynical

I got some more @ today's low (2.10) so im still keen...long term.

Costs have risen significantly this year....if POG falls/stays below 800 for 
a sustained period, alot of projects in development will be put on hold or 
slowed down, and a few small producers will fall over.


----------



## explod

Had the price of gold stayed at around $US1,000 from the high in March, this stock with the production reports since would by now have found its way     to $5 IMHO.     I brought back in on Monday (bit premature in hindsight) but think it is one of the great bargains for the longer term.

I had written off the negative post but great of you to contact the company Uncle.


----------



## johenmo

So_Cynical said:


> political situation...what political situation? the locals are share holders.
> 
> Your shorting LGL ?




I'm not trying to downramp at all.  Just found it interesting that people who are on the island, and others I know who have been in PNG for 20+ years are wary of LGL.  Some of these had business interests that were caught up in the Bougainville situation, so that may be part their wariness.

Political situation = national government level, not island/local level.  

As for the thermal power, if the company says so, then I stand corrected.

Not shorting.  Not in it at all.  Still waiting for a better moment for entry.

DYOR.


----------



## So_Cynical

johenmo said:


> Not shorting.  Not in it at all.  Still waiting for a better moment for entry.




I got in at the low the other day $2.10

Are u waiting for better than that?

In this market i spose anythings possible.


----------



## johenmo

So_Cynical said:


> I got in at the low the other day $2.10
> 
> Are u waiting for better than that?
> 
> In this market i spose anythings possible.




Because I'm still learning and working on a system I haven't done anything.  I'm doing some research atm and will act when I've finished.

This is NOT down ramping but based on the advantage of relatives who have worked and had businesses up there.  The PNG government worries me because the "wantok system" really doesn't give me confidence!  The islands tend to be a better than the mainland.

My rellies were caught up in the Bougainville crisis, even though they had nothing whatsoever to do with the mine.  Didn't stop the locals burning things down and them having to write of the Bougainville investments.  

Price - lowest it's been since Mar 2006 so I could see myself getting in soon.  Like I said, I just want to minimise risk - price has dropped significantly % wise in the last month and I'm not trading daily/short term.  I aim to buy  on a rising trend.  I considered it at $3 - glad I didn't.


----------



## simontitan

so what kind of news are we anticipating tomorrow morning at half year earnings release?

I am hoping for some good news


----------



## Family_Guy

Lihir Gold returns to profit

August 19, 2008 - 8:54AM


Papua New Guinea miner Lihir Gold posted a first-half net profit of $36.5 million, rebounding from a $46.5 million loss in the same period a year ago.

It also said total production would rise to more than 850,000 ounces in the full-year, up from 701,000 in 2007.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/lihir-gold-returns-to-profit-20080819-3xru.html


----------



## simontitan

Well it was great news, but not great enough it would seem as the share price spiked to 2.29 now is 1-2c above or below yesterdays close.

Guess gold didnt get high enough


----------



## Sean K

I think it was pretty positive.

Normally they bring out bad news.

Still not making much money for a company with such a massive MC...

Their pe has always been huge for some reason....

Maybe T/O premium.

I'm on the side till the market settles in about 2015 ish.... `


----------



## simontitan

Yeah. well hopefully they get Ballarat off the ground and Ivory coast up and running in September and Gold price goes back up 

is that much to hope for


----------



## eddyeagle

It's about time LGL had a positive profit report!

Things are looking good in the medium term:



_Lihir also said total production would increase to more than 850,000 ounces this year, from 701,000 ounces in 2007.

The improved profit followed the merger of Lihir with Equigold, which brought the established mine at Mt Rawdown, in Queensland, and the new Bonikro mine in the Ivory Coast, in West Africa, into the group.

Bonikro is being commissioned now, with it initial gold pour scheduled for September.

Mr Hood said Lihir's second half production would include the start of commercial gold production at Ballarat, with ore extraction set to begin later this month, ramping up over the remainder of the year.

Ballarat is expected to produce approximately 40-50,000 ounces in 2008, with the bulk of production in the final quarter.

Lihir's major asset, the 23 million ounce reserve Lihir Island mine, off Papua New Guinea, continued to perform well, Mr Hood said.

The Lihir island mine was scheduled to produce more than 700,000 ounces in 2008, following output of 308,000 ounces in the first half.

The expansion of the process plant to lift output to more than one million ounces per year continued to make good progress in the first half, and remained on budget and on schedule for completion in 2011.

''By the end of this year, the LGL group will have four mines in operation, producing a total of more than 1.2 million ounces of gold per year, providing the company with diversified cashflows and strong future growth potential,'' Mr Hood said.

Lihir said its cost of sales lifted 16% from the December half year of 2007 to $US141.1 million. Operating cash flow of $US41.2 million compared to $US53.3 million in the December half.

It said total cash costs per ounce for the full year would be less than $US400 per ounce from Lihir Island._


----------



## amory

_<< It's about time LGL had a positive profit report!
Things are looking good in the medium term >>_

considering that there is not another important stock on the board that's behaved worse on chart over the last couple of months ...

... that's nice!!!


----------



## Hendrik

Hi fellow posters, im a very novice day trader and im still learning the concepts of tech analysis. I traded LGL for a small gain back in june and im looking at them again this week, ive made a chart using my basic knowledge, i was wondering if some of the experts could mark me on it? 




like i said im very novice so constructive critisim is most welcome.


----------



## amory

well gee whiz Hendrik if that chart ain't bullish what is!  what I'd like to know is what made them go down this far in the first place?  this is not a rhetorical question.  when a stock misbehaves as LGL has done, people become wary & distrust the chart.

but good luck with them anyway!


----------



## Sean K

amory said:


> well gee whiz Hendrik if that chart ain't bullish what is!  what I'd like to know is what made them go down this far in the first place?  this is not a rhetorical question.  when a stock misbehaves as LGL has done, people become wary & distrust the chart.
> 
> but good luck with them anyway!



amory, you might like to consider what:



> Hi fellow posters, im a very novice day trader



might mean against your 50 years of gold investing....

If you're just going to attack people, your at the wrong party..

Let's stay friendly, 

Cheers,
kennas


----------



## rthakkar

for you all

Question 1: since the price has fallen so much, why isn't anyone coming out to buyout Lihir?

Question 2: What is your price target for LGL for the last quarter of this year (i.e next 3 months) ?


----------



## simontitan

I got in at 2.24 and out again at 2.38.

Will get back on board as I believe their Ballarat mine is due to kick in this month, which should at least give me some short term gains


----------



## Goldmann

ah my poor old Lihir... 

first stock i ever bought - its breaking my heart to see the old girl kicked around like this.

closed at a new 52 week low last night...

woe is me


----------



## mattyhammer

Hi all, 
I always read these forums with enthusiasm but am still very new to this game. I've had LGL shares for a while. Got it then out at a profit then bought back in when they were about $3. Anyone able to help me understand why they hovered around the $2.40 mark for a while then dived all so suddenly down to under $2 in the last couple of days. There hasn't been any press release that I'm aware about....anyone got any ideas?


----------



## rthakkar

mattyhammer said:


> Hi all,
> I always read these forums with enthusiasm but am still very new to this game. I've had LGL shares for a while. Got it then out at a profit then bought back in when they were about $3. Anyone able to help me understand why they hovered around the $2.40 mark for a while then dived all so suddenly down to under $2 in the last couple of days. There hasn't been any press release that I'm aware about....anyone got any ideas?




Nothing about Lihir in particular, but the overall commodities market is looking bearish at the moment. 
With oil trading around $100, its has eased the inflation fears which in effect has dragged Gold prices down.


----------



## explod

mattyhammer said:


> Hi all,
> I always read these forums with enthusiasm but am still very new to this game. I've had LGL shares for a while. Got it then out at a profit then bought back in when they were about $3. Anyone able to help me understand why they hovered around the $2.40 mark for a while then dived all so suddenly down to under $2 in the last couple of days. There hasn't been any press release that I'm aware about....anyone got any ideas?




There has been a considerable rise in the US dollar and many gold traders work off that to a large degree.   The rise in the US dollar has more to do with uncertainties now throughout UK, Europe than any real substance to the US currency.

As has been pointed out our dollar drop has held Aussie gold price up so bottom line production from LGL will continue as normal.  A return to lower US dollar will bring back sentiment as well.

Having been out of the share market most of this year have begun to pick off some bottoms and got more LGL today at $1.99

Dont' follow me, am often wrong but dont' lose sleep over you current holding.

Notice gold has been sideways the last three days and has just strengthened after our close.

Interesting times.


----------



## mattyhammer

Thanks guys for your input. Guess I will just hold at the mo until things settle down a bit. Not keen to take it out and lose more at the moment. My portfolio is sucking big time....


----------



## Goldmann

yeah i am so tempted to buy more - but really starting to lose my faith in the gold play long term. have been a gold bull for some time, but cant remember the last time i prayed (and thanked the lord) at the church of bullion.

been a tough few months...


----------



## PhoenixXx

In just 5-10 minutes the sp surged more than 10% to $2.93. I thought there would be a very good announcement as gold price slumped but LGL just rallied strongly. Was somebody pulling a string, or something BIG is really gonna happen


----------



## Lucky_Country

Really unbeliveable trading in LGL today.
Pump and dump these guys have no respect for anything except for the figures.
So much for long term investing just to hard take your profits and run imo.


----------



## booboo

PhoenixXx said:


> In just 5-10 minutes the sp surged more than 10% to $2.93. I thought there would be a very good announcement as gold price slumped but LGL just rallied strongly. Was somebody pulling a string, or something BIG is really gonna happen




Looked like a short stop hunt that worked.. big time. Will be interesting to see what happens Mon with naked short ban. MOO.


----------



## dan-o

this is heading back to around $2. Anyone know much about these guys? Im a little tempted to grab some...


----------



## Sean K

dan-o said:


> this is heading back to around $2. Anyone know much about these guys? Im a little tempted to grab some...



Hostage to the general market right now, and POG. Watch POG for the break up through $925 ish and LGL may follow up. Gold bulls will probably tell you an awesome opportunity to pick some up, or NCM, but POG hasn't behaved how a lot of us expected the past few months. 

Good luck on your decision to add some LGL, and with the general market. 

I'm not sure how POG will go in a recession - depression....


----------



## amory

the POG isn't all that bad.  LGL is, but that's because they are a no-hoper of a stock.  they'll always opt for the weak side (between the Dow & the POG that is ... whichever of the two is down, that's the one they'll follow).  

why is everyone disgusted with Gold?  becoz it hasn't lived up to what every expert was forecasting for years.  that in time of serious trouble, gold is the one thing that'll go up ... as against the greenback ... collapse, collapse, collapse.  

but it didn't happen that way.


----------



## amory

you see what I mean don't you?

the All/ords is up & according to Kitco, so's Gold.  what excuse is there for LGL to do down?  surely not because of a slight dip in the Dow before the weekend?

NCM is practically steady, but LGL down 5%.  what a bummer!  they're supposed to be a midsize stock, 2nd largest producer etc, but at the rate they're going, lucky if they don't end up among the pennydreadfuls.

not joking, it wouldn't be the first goldie that's ended up down there, after a promising start.


----------



## Goldmann

amory said:


> the POG isn't all that bad.  LGL is, but that's because they are a no-hoper of a stock.  they'll always opt for the weak side (between the Dow & the POG that is ... whichever of the two is down, that's the one they'll follow).
> 
> why is everyone disgusted with Gold?  becoz it hasn't lived up to what every expert was forecasting for years.  that in time of serious trouble, gold is the one thing that'll go up ... as against the greenback ... collapse, collapse, collapse.
> 
> but it didn't happen that way.




It didnt happen that way????  Happen - as is past tense???

This 'credit crisis' is a long way from over yet... im not saying I believe the predictions of $2000.. however surely people will realise the greenback wont be worth the paper once they have to print another trillion...or the Chinese and Euros realise they would be better with gold in their vaults than USD.

The big spanner in all this was the euro... no one expected the euro to get hammered so much, which has artifically helped the US dollar, and in turn limited the upside to gold...

Just my two cents... and for the record, I cant comprehend why LGL always seems to track worse than the other Major gold producers... lack of confidence in the sector I would think...


----------



## barrett

Reading LGL's last quarterly report, it's surprising how well things are going compared to most other golds.  They are so far on track for est. 08-09 production of 850Koz, which equates to 2,328 ounces every day of the year.  Their cost of production is a very low US$400... conservatively, A$615/oz.  The $A gold price was recently $1400/oz, now $1150/oz.  

So on today's price, LGL's margin is A$535/oz so cash flow is A$1.25M per day, or A$0.456 Billion per year.  As against a market cap  of [A$1.89 x 2.187M shares on issue = A$4.13Bn].

On these estimates LGL's cash flow/market cap is 11% so they are in a much better position than many other golds.  There's good money coming in - now also from their Bonikro mine in Ivory Coast which just had its first gold pour after the acquisition only 6 months ago.  

So Amory can you explain why you think LGL is a "no-hoper of a stock"?


----------



## amory

hi Barrett.  have you had a look at their SP lately?

Goldmann, yes I see what you mean.  hope you are right ... in the long run!


----------



## barrett

amory said:


> hi Barrett.  have you had a look at their SP lately?




Hi Amory - do you judge the quality of a company purely according to its share price?  If so, you should be investing in an index fund - seriously!  There is no point in you going to the trouble of looking at individual stocks.

Is there any other reason that you said LGL is a "no-hoper of a stock"?


----------



## amory

barrett said:


> ....
> Is there any other reason that you said LGL is a "no-hoper of a stock"?




Not really, Barrett.  in general, I let the market do the talking.  or more specifically, the chart.

there are however, those who say derogatory things about activities on "the island".  myself, have given up on fundamental analysis a long time ago.  becoz there, you'd have to believe what the directors tell you.

people like the Fuld's of this world, if you've been following the news.


----------



## The Muffin Man

As far as Gold producers go, Newcrest's share price has also suffered quite a bit over the last 6 months, it's not just Lihir as some here would make it out to be.

At the moment, gold companies are subject to some pretty volatile swings in gold prices, and without any hedging in place, investors are going to be a little spooked. Factor in the recent takeover of Equigold and you have quite a large share dilution. Lihir paid a pretty high price for Equigold, partly because of the production capabilities of Equigold, partly because of the massive exploration licences of Equigold. 

The outlook is good from where I sit. A low cost producer, bringing on a number of new mines while upgrading capacity at the mines already producing, and holding vast exploration permits in Africa.


----------



## barrett

amory said:


> Not really, Barrett.  in general, I let the market do the talking.  or more specifically, the chart.
> 
> *there are however, those who say derogatory things about activities on "the island".  * myself, have given up on fundamental analysis a long time ago.  becoz there, you'd have to believe what the directors tell you.




It looks like you're trying to put about a rumour - and LGL and NCM charts are nearly identical these past few months.  So besides that rumour-mongering and bogus chart-reading mystique, do you have anything to contribute about LGL?  *Positive, negative, in between, it doesn't matter *- but if you put up strong views and can't support them then LGL ain't the "no-hoper" here.


----------



## amory

barrett said:


> It looks like you're trying to put about a rumour - and LGL and NCM charts are nearly identical these past few months.  So besides that rumour-mongering and bogus chart-reading mystique, do you have anything to contribute about LGL?  *Positive, negative, in between, it doesn't matter *- but if you put up strong views and can't support them then LGL ain't the "no-hoper" here.




you are right Barrett & if I have been putting about rumours, I apologize.  unfortunately, I have this stupid memory like an elephant & I have had to look all over the place to find the reference I was looking for & which stuck in my mind all this time.  it's dated almost 3 months ago & I assume nothing much would have changed since then ... except the share-price of course.

and by the way, I don't think it is fair to compare them to NCM performance wise.  from their respective september lows NCM has recovered about 20%, LGL barely 13% to their closing price today.

_<< Lihir Gold (LGL) 

Merrill Lynch 

Underperform recommendation 

Price objective of $3.08 

Last traded at $2.64 

INCREASED cash costs and ongoing execution risk for LGL's numerous projects have resulted in Merrill Lynch downgrading its recommendation on the gold miner to underperform. 

Despite LGL releasing fairly positive results last week, the analysts believe that the miner's management is stretched, with a lot of fires to fight. 

"We still believe LGL has a lot on its plate with its numerous projects, and retain our underperform rating," it said in a recent research note. 

Following recent "de-bottlenecking", LGL management has shown that the Lihir Island processing facility can be pushed beyond its current limits. 

But feed grade is still inconsistent and may be an issue if the record throughput achieved this quarter is not maintained, according to Merrill Lynch. 

Reconciliation issues between the mine's geological block model and what is actually being mined out of the pit are the key driver of the inconsistent grade story. 

Management advised that Lihir Island's ore reconciliation varied significantly quarter to quarter and depending on the pit bench being mined. 

"In our view, production may continue to be inconsistent due to grade, and could well be a function of poor grade control," Merrill said. >>_


----------



## amory

... making allowance for the possibility that it is not only incompetence on the part of LGL CEO's, but the price of the underlying commodity one ought to blame for poor share-price performance.  

going by this morning's figures, no relief is to be expected on that front, not in the near term anyway.  leaving the numerous experts deriding the efforts of the Fed & predicting imminent collapse of the fiat currency, with egg on their face.  1650 an ounce ... here we come!  has rather a hollow sound to it now that it can't even hang on to half of that, would you not agree?

by rudely shaking the ingrained belief of the goldsters, I am beginning to think that I am actually doing them a favour.


----------



## Real1ty

barrett said:


> It looks like you're trying to put about a rumour - and LGL and NCM charts are nearly identical these past few months.  So besides that rumour-mongering and bogus chart-reading mystique, do you have anything to contribute about LGL?  *Positive, negative, in between, it doesn't matter *- but if you put up strong views and can't support them then LGL ain't the "no-hoper" here.




barrett,

amory, as he likes to be called here, is well known on other forums.

He is a time waster that has no rational to his thoughts but this doesn't stop him sprouting off his inane ramblings.

He has an obsession with bagging out Jim Sinclair and LGL and to a lessor extent Gold.

My guess is Sinclair might have once suggested a buy on LGL, "amory" bought in, got burnt, and never forgot it.

Not going to tell you how to post as that is your prerogative but you will find no sensible or rational posts in reply from grbasher AKA amory....


----------



## amory

Thanks for the publicity, Real1ty.  and by the way, what's your nick on whatever other forum you are referring to?  I don't recall having come across you in my travels.

now for the personal attack on my commonsense & integrity ... and I must warn you we've got a very strict policy here on this sort of thing ... _"He is a time waster that has no rational to his thoughts but this doesn't stop him sprouting off his inane ramblings."_ ... not nice Real1ty & devoid of rational content if that's what you are looking for ...

ultimately tell me this:  who turned out to be right & who turned out to be wrong?  several posters have thanked me for keeping them out of strife.  the gentleman you referred to & whom I'm supposed to have some sort of hangup about ... he is refusing messages from his erstwhile devotees because he can't handle the brickbats any more.  only those who are on his side, are allowed to email him.

at least, I'm not that bad yet.  keep 'em  coming, friend!  but don't forget to watch the market ... the POG or whatever else turns you on.


----------



## amory

_<< He has an obsession with bagging out Jim Sinclair and LGL and to a lessor extent Gold. >>_

forget the first two ... I don't like kicking them when they're down ... but where you say "to a lesser extent gold" that's about right!

because I've got nothing against gold.  on the contrary, I've been saying repeatedly that gold will be able to go into orbit when the time comes & not a day sooner.  go on, ask me to be more specific ... there are in fact, some who expect my primary condition to be met very soon, within days in fact.

a clue:  does it look like the Fed knows what they're doing & have known all along?  going by results, it would appear that way, would it not?  hence the uncertainty.


----------



## amory

... as you were saying Real1ty ... been bagging gold have I? ... & brought it down single-handed why don't you accuse me?  because it IS DOWN, you must admit!

another interesting feature & which I have been pointing out quite some time back, if not on this forum then on the other one you were referring to: 

the Flight into Security which was supposed to be into Gold, wasn't into gold at all but into the Dollar & ten-year Bonds.  the worthless fiat currency, would you believe.  have a look at this:

_<< "The same old reasoning still applies: The U.S. is regarded as being able to weather a recession much better than the euro zone," wrote strategists at Commerzbank. 
Also, the European Central Bank has further to go in cutting interest rates than the Fed, which has already delivered the bulk of its interest-rate cuts in this cycle, they said. 
Sadly this increase in the value of the $ will be counterproductive in the long run, damaging exporters ability to be competitive in a global market, and further damage US Exports. >>_

"the same old reasoning ..."  I like that!  whoever I ask you ... in their wildest dreams ... ever expected that the Dollar would beat Gold in the able-to-weather-a-recession stakes?

the last paragraph, commencing with "Sadly..." unfortunately takes the wind out of the sails, any potential bulls still around ... regarding health of US economy.

you may notice that I am posting these comments on the LGL thread, I am doing that on purpose.  on the assumption that not many people follow it.  if I posted on the Gold thread, it could startle the horses.  we don't want to cause any more damage if we can help it.  anyway we've clarified one or two things, now let us watch events take their course.

for instance, the greenback vs. the Yen is not looking at all healthy, there could be some hidden meaning in that.  the Golden turning-point perhaps?

hoping, not predicting.  but with the blinkers off!


----------



## Lachlan6

LGL looks to be impulsing lower on the wekly chart yet there is an outside chance the move down could be counted as corrective. In the nearer term, it may be tracing out a large running flat wave (4) or it may just go straight lower in the wave (5). The possible completion of the wave (4) hit the typical retracement area. There will be some stern resistace in the $2.60 - $2.75 area pending any bounce once these five waves complete.


----------



## amory

Great chart Lachlan!  but if you superimpose it on the POG, in recent times its almost identical.  except in July when the POG was trying to regain previous peaks, LGL was already losing traction.  barely noticeably at the time ...

& of course not hard to decide which of the two ... POG or LGL ... is leading which.  so we better keep our fingers crossed for Gold.


----------



## The Muffin Man

I would be interested to know what LGL holders think of the quarterly results just released. Seems like a very good result from the operation on Lihir Island, with Ballarat slowly coming up to speed, Ivory Coast coming into full production this quarter, and Mt Rawdon holding stable.

The POG will of course impact results for this quarter, but it looks as though the plan of multiple operating mining sites is coming to fruition.


----------



## beachbum

Lets put this in perspective. Like every market it's timing. If gold was purchased in 1980, your return after the debasement of your fiat currency of choice would be terrible. If you purchased gold in 1999 when at approx' $250 US ( $500 odd aussie, cannot remember exact exchange rate) your return today would be fantastic. Unfortunately people jump in without doing their research, follow the herd and believe what their pimply financial adviser has heard is a good thing or what the media is broadcasting. Make your own decisions and be prepared to get out when the facts are their for all to see. The house of cards was going to crumble at some stage and unfortunately most people are now frozen in the headlights and are just hoping that things will return to the good times like they have after previous sell offs. Most will get out at the wrong time and get back in at the wrong time. Silly me, I keep forgetting what they tell the masses. Buy and hold for the long term and everything will be alright. Sorry for being so cynical.

Remember Gold 1980 - 2008  Oh dear.
Nikkei 1990 - 2008    40000 down to 8211 Oh dear Oh dear

Sorry about the rant, I won't do it on the LHG board next time. Protect your capital.

Cheers


----------



## Goldmann

beachbum said:


> Lets put this in perspective. Like every market it's timing. If gold was purchased in 1980, your return after the debasement of your fiat currency of choice would be terrible. If you purchased gold in 1999 when at approx' $250 US ( $500 odd aussie, cannot remember exact exchange rate) your return today would be fantastic. Unfortunately people jump in without doing their research, follow the herd and believe what their pimply financial adviser has heard is a good thing or what the media is broadcasting. Make your own decisions and be prepared to get out when the facts are their for all to see. The house of cards was going to crumble at some stage and unfortunately most people are now frozen in the headlights and are just hoping that things will return to the good times like they have after previous sell offs. Most will get out at the wrong time and get back in at the wrong time. Silly me, I keep forgetting what they tell the masses. Buy and hold for the long term and everything will be alright. Sorry for being so cynical.
> 
> Remember Gold 1980 - 2008  Oh dear.
> Nikkei 1990 - 2008    40000 down to 8211 Oh dear Oh dear
> 
> Sorry about the rant, I won't do it on the LHG board next time. Protect your capital.
> 
> Cheers




Im as cynical as they come, but atleast my posts make sense... you rant is nothing new, and has very little to do with LGL.  apart from the fact you mentioned gold... stay off the PCP buddy, its not all bad - LGL up again today  and gold climbing for a little while, sit back and smell the roses - it aint all bad...


----------



## beachbum

Dear Goldmann, if my post didn't make sense to you why offer a reply stating my rant is nothing new. Never kidded myself that it was ground breaking. I own LGL and gold at the moment, sorry you feel I was trying to bag it. Ask LGL holders that picked up shares at $4 and ask them if their timing could have been better.
I have a cynical view of our financial system, not the value and purpose of gold or owning gold shares.
By the way things are great for my family and myself and we smell the roses everyday, not PCP. Unfortunately this is not the case financially for millions who have put their trust in others to guide them through these times financially. Included in that are stock forums.

Just so you know in future. I hold  physical gold which I hope my children pass to the grandkids. LGL, SBM, BDG, AVO. Luckily most were sold last year and bought again recently. Thank my lucky stars I didn't take note of all the "Good news only allowed or you will be chastised and sent to the back of the class" stock forum threads. Otherwise I would be reading all the " Let's all stay strong, it's a good company and the price will come back eventually" threads to comfort myself.


----------



## beachbum

Hi Amory. Just looked back at the previous page on this thread to see you getting bagged. I do remember your name from a forum I participated in several years ago, technical analysis forum from memory. Thanks for all your input back then. Your input and all the other posters really helped kick start my interest in TA. I then purchased Metastock and lots of books. Thankyou, TA has served me well and helped preserve my capital over the last year. Most of all it filters out all the garbage. Keep em coming.

Cheers






Real1ty said:


> barrett,
> 
> amory, as he likes to be called here, is well known on other forums.
> 
> He is a time waster that has no rational to his thoughts but this doesn't stop him sprouting off his inane ramblings.
> 
> He has an obsession with bagging out Jim Sinclair and LGL and to a lessor extent Gold.
> 
> My guess is Sinclair might have once suggested a buy on LGL, "amory" bought in, got burnt, and never forgot it.
> 
> Not going to tell you how to post as that is your prerogative but you will find no sensible or rational posts in reply from grbasher AKA amory....


----------



## eddyeagle

Anyone got any thoughts on LGL at the moment?
The share price is slowly climbing - inch by inch - back towards 3 bucks!
Not bad given that it was trading around $1.50 in late October!
People finally seem to be taking notice of the larger gold miners.


----------



## sinner

If they constantly mention "no debt" then why do they need financing to fund expansion? 

Purely a sentiment play imho..


----------



## CamKawa

LGL just seems to keep defying gravity. It's looking as though it may hit some resistance about now at $2.79 and the RSI has it looking a bit overbought. Could be time to start heading for the exit I think.


----------



## Georgeb

This will break $3.00 next week. I suspect this will test its high's in the next 12 months as the US dollar depreciates and the gold price increase.


----------



## champ2003

Georgeb said:


> This will break $3.00 next week. I suspect this will test its high's in the next 12 months as the US dollar depreciates and the gold price increase.




If the gold price goes anywhere near the $1000 mark over the next 2 months LGL will be trading at it's all time highs then IMO but time will tell.


----------



## chatty

I think LGL is one of the best gold stocks for long term investment at the moment. Anyone has the target price for this company within the next 6 months?

I expect it to be higher than its previous high. It looks pretty good.


----------



## Sean K

chatty said:


> I think LGL is one of the best gold stocks for long term investment at the moment. Anyone has the target price for this company within the next 6 months?
> 
> I expect it to be higher than its previous high. It looks pretty good.



No price targets, but I think the last few days is just the evener upper after the NCM outperformance.

I don't think it's the best LONG term gold stock on the ASX as is due to the uncertainty about recent acquisitions risk and still the reliance on Lihir Island (country and geological risk) for the vast bulk of production. If they nab Prominant Hill or Matarbe for a few cents off OZ then it'll be more well rounded...


----------



## So_Cynical

Back over $3 today  of course i took a profit last week at 2.87 

Hard to believe LGL was a dollar something a few months ago.


----------



## eddyeagle

From Today's Age:


Lihir Gold, Australia's second-biggest listed gold producer, has been forced to shut its mine in Papua New Guinea because of landowner disputes.

The Lihir Island mine, in the province of New Ireland, about 700 km northeast of the capital, Port Moresby, has been shut since Friday afternoon over a compensation dispute between the local landowners and the apex landowner body.

"LGL is presently assisting the parties involved to resolve the matter quickly,'' Lihir's spokeswoman said today.

The mine, fully owned by Lihir, produced 216,371 ounces of gold in the third quarter, and the firm has flagged the mine's full-year production to top 700,000 ounces.

Disputes over the distribution of compensation and land are not uncommon in PNG, whose mineral deposits, including copper, gold and oil account for nearly two-thirds of the country's export earnings.

Lihir in October forecast annual production of 850,000 ounces this year, up from 701,000 in 2007, owing in part to the start of new mines in Australia and Africa as it moved away from being a company with one mine in PNG.


----------



## explod

What a great report.   On track and with a rising gold price, love it.

Only got back in last Friday, almost on a whim but felt a few things coming together.


----------



## Goldmann

yeah i agree Explod!  Finally LGL starting to recover!  Got some at 2.40 and was kicking myself when it fell back to under $2. But all good now...

will be interesting to see if Gold holds above $900 tonight... it appears a big resistance line! Long term we will be right though


----------



## S73417H

I have been looking to move some money into Lihir Gold for the last few weeks. Looks to be trending up very nicely now with gold prices on the rise. Does anyone think that there will be a reasonable fall in share price any time soon which might be a good time to buy in? If so why? 

Also, what are peoples expectation for Lihir in terms of share price at the end of 2009?

Speculate away!


----------



## jackson8

S73417H said:


> I have been looking to move some money into Lihir Gold for the last few weeks. Looks to be trending up very nicely now with gold prices on the rise. Does anyone think that there will be a reasonable fall in share price any time soon which might be a good time to buy in? If so why?
> 
> Also, what are peoples expectation for Lihir in terms of share price at the end of 2009?
> 
> Speculate away!





i think it is very difficult to make predictions under the current eviroment, probably not what you would like to hear

aussie $ low is good, for some of their contracts i believe around about 30% are sold in aussie $
usd is shifting around,  many talk of it being devalued over a period of time due to the usa's huge debt which could move money into gold
overall market moves will also have effect on sp regardless of how gold itself is travelling
so it is either heads or tails as i see it just now
from my own technical analysis momentum seems to be slowing down a bit with the sp
if the overall market can lift a bit while gold price stays consistent may have its advantages
impossible to put sp targets i believe


----------



## So_Cynical

S73417H said:


> I have been looking to move some money into Lihir Gold for the last few weeks. Looks to be trending up very nicely now with gold prices on the rise. Does anyone think that there will be a reasonable fall in share price any time soon which might be a good time to buy in? If so why?




So u want in now cos the SP is clearly trending up...but would like LGL to fall a little 
so u can get a better entry ...ive a feeling if the SP had a decent fall u would 
lose interest pretty quick.

If your in for a quick trend trade why bother even posting?


----------



## Sean K

S73417H said:


> Also, what are peoples expectation for Lihir in terms of share price at the end of 2009?
> 
> Speculate away!



I think it'll be at least $20. 

Actually, it might be 50c.

Or, it could be $3.05.

Speculation over.


----------



## justiceotp

Kennas the way the markets been lately it will probably be all the above and thats just today's trade....   lol


----------



## M34N

Just went into a trading halt - will be interesting to see what this is about?

EDIT: just found the news:



> DJ Lihir Gold: Plans Institutional Placement
> 04/03/2009 08:50AM AEST
> 
> SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australian gold producer Lihir Gold Ltd. (LGL.AU) Wednesday went into a trading halt, pending an announcement on an institutional share placement.
> 
> The Port Moresby-based miner said it doesn't expect the trading halt to last beyond the start of trading on March 9.
> 
> Lihir joins a long list of gold miners that are taking advantage of buoyant gold prices to raise capital to improve their balance sheet.
> 
> Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) recently raised A$750 million in order to bring down gearing levels to about 2%. Smaller gold producers like St Barbara Ltd. (SBM.AU) have also announced share placements.
> 
> -By Elisabeth Behrmann, Dow Jones Newswires;
> 
> 61-2-8272-4689 elisabeth.behrmann@dowjones.com


----------



## Sean K

M34N said:


> Just went into a trading halt - will be interesting to see what this is about?
> 
> EDIT: just found the news:



Indicative price of about $3 a share.

I thought these gold companies were making lots of money now?



I suppose if it means they can start processing more gold in the short term it's a good thing.


*DJ Lihir Gold Placement Indicative Price A$3.00/Shr - Source *

04/03/2009 09:47AM AEST  

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Lihir Gold Ltd.'s (LGL.AU) planned institutional placement is through a bookbuild process with an indicative price of A$3.00 a share, which is a 9% discount to the miner's last traded price of A$3.31, according to a market participant who didn't want to be named. 

Lihir said earlier that it plans to raise US$325 million via an institutional share placement to speed up a plant expansion at the Lihir mine in Papua New Guinea and to position the company for growth opportunities. 

-By Elisabeth Behrmann, Dow Jones Newswires;


----------



## JTLP

Me sentiments exactly Kennas...

If Gold is at these record prices (although coming off a tad just know) what is the need for all these goldies to raise substantial amounts of funding?

Surely when gold was at $1000 AUD they were doing ok...now we have nearly 50% on top of this and all the producers are asking for more?

Maybe AUS gold producers are not as efficient as we all think?


----------



## sinner

Isn't this just how gold miners operate? Off market sentiment?

When sentiment is good they process the poorer grade ore mixed with only a bit of higher grades to boost profits. They use this money to make the higher grades available for when gold sentiment is poor so they can still make some money!

The same goes for funding. They have spent the last year or two on the downside with little hope of bank/insto funding. Why not take the money while they can, to make higher grades available for processing if/when poor sentiment returns.

Also, not all the producers are asking for more! Some of them are debt free and don't need a dime!


----------



## So_Cynical

I sold @ 3.60 a couple of weeks ago....so care factor = 0 

Good luck to the holders...old and new.

Id be a little peed off if i was still holding.


----------



## M34N

Was interesting to see them hit and close at the $3.00 placement price today, IIRC Newcrest had theirs at $27 (or so) and they only fell to around $28-29 before rebounding all the way up to $36 or so. Thinking about buying in tomorrow, depending on how the markets go and gold price of course!

Watching this one very closely, could do very well out of the next few months with the way the markets and gold are looking.


----------



## Dangerous

So_Cynical said:


> I sold @ 3.60 a couple of weeks ago....so care factor = 0
> 
> Good luck to the holders...old and new.
> 
> Id be a little peed off if i was still holding.




An older friend of mine who never swears came round to my desk this morning muttering "why not just say you're going to raise f****g capital"... not impressed that last week they said no capital raising


----------



## mingsh22

can anyone explain to me why LGL price dropped 5-6%ish today while NCM is only 0%ish? they are both gold mine companies and both in ASX 50.


----------



## jackson8

mingsh22 said:


> can anyone explain to me why LGL price dropped 5-6%ish today while NCM is only 0%ish? they are both gold mine companies and both in ASX 50.




could be number of reasons

gold price has dropped 
copper is up and ncm has copper
also capital raising at $3 may have some effect


----------



## Mc Gusto

I like them at the moment and am holding. Will take profits in 6-9 months. Think I will take up the $5k offer at $3.
Was p1ssed at the the cap raising but they have held since.

thanks

gusto


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

Is anyone watching the LGL call warrants offered by Macquarie?

LGLVME 	$4.00 	26 Mar 09 	2:1 	American
LGLVMF 	$2.75 	26 Mar 09 	2:1 	American
LGLVMG 	$2.50 	23 Apr 09 	3:1 	American
LGLVMH 	$3.50 	28 May 09 	3:1 	American
LGLVMI 	$3.50 	25 Jun 09 	3:1 	American
LGLWMA 	$3.50 	24 Sep 09 	2:1 	American

Specifically the one highlighted in red above?

Currently 10,000 on offer on the ASX at 0.33 (10% of current price). 

Description: MACQUARIE 250 LGL CALL WARRANT 23-APR-09
Type: Call warrant
Issuer: MACQUARIE BANK LTD.
Commenced Trading: 21 Jan 2009
Expiry: 23 Apr 2009
Exercise level: 2.500 (expressed in $ or index points)
Warrants per underlying instrument: 3.0000
Exercise style: American
Warrants issued: 10,000,000


----------



## wicked

Maybe because of the share purchase plan, which ends today. Some maybe selling and re-buying at a lower price.



mingsh22 said:


> can anyone explain to me why LGL price dropped 5-6%ish today while NCM is only 0%ish? they are both gold mine companies and both in ASX 50.


----------



## sails

sinner said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> Is anyone watching the LGL call warrants offered by Macquarie?
> 
> LGLVME 	$4.00 	26 Mar 09 	2:1 	American
> LGLVMF 	$2.75 	26 Mar 09 	2:1 	American
> LGLVMG 	$2.50 	23 Apr 09 	3:1 	American
> LGLVMH 	$3.50 	28 May 09 	3:1 	American
> LGLVMI 	$3.50 	25 Jun 09 	3:1 	American
> LGLWMA 	$3.50 	24 Sep 09 	2:1 	American
> 
> Specifically the one highlighted in red above?
> 
> Currently 10,000 on offer on the ASX at 0.33 (10% of current price).
> 
> Description: MACQUARIE 250 LGL CALL WARRANT 23-APR-09
> Type: Call warrant
> Issuer: MACQUARIE BANK LTD.
> Commenced Trading: 21 Jan 2009
> Expiry: 23 Apr 2009
> Exercise level: 2.500 (expressed in $ or index points)
> Warrants per underlying instrument: 3.0000
> Exercise style: American
> Warrants issued: 10,000,000




Hey Sinner,

Why would you buy 3 x 250 LGL CALL WARRANT 23-APR-09  @ 33c ea = 90c (3 needed to get a delta of one) when you can buy the same strike and expiry call option with a delta of about .98 for approx 50c?

That's a huge difference in price - and as both expire next week, it's $400 (per thousand) less to lose in theta decay.  Or am I missing something - I'm not usually into normal warrants...


----------



## Loose

Hey folks, I'm surprised at the low level of activity with LGL both on the market and here on the forum. It would appear to me that they have had some positive news recently but the sp has hardly wavered and very few recent posts hve been made.
Any thoughts on their production targets or Q109 results?

yes I am holding


----------



## Sean K

Loose said:


> Hey folks, I'm surprised at the low level of activity with LGL both on the market and here on the forum. It would appear to me that they have had some positive news recently but the sp has hardly wavered and very few recent posts hve been made.
> Any thoughts on their production targets or Q109 results?
> 
> yes I am holding



The result at Lihir was excellent but they've proved themselves capable of making poor decisions just like the rest of us. Ballarat is a disaster. They should write it off, sell the plant and mill, and fill in the holes. No one else should touch it either. QLD and Ivory coast look good with great exploration potential. Although, why explore in that region where there are multiple gold juniors who have already done tons of work with decent inferred and indicated resources at bargain prices just waiting to be plucked? LGL is still virtually a one mine operation and if there's some seismic activity their world comes crumbling down. They need another 2 x 200-300 oz au producers to round them out a bit. 

(yes, hold)


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> The result at Lihir was excellent but they've proved themselves capable of making poor decisions just like the rest of us. Ballarat is a disaster. They should write it off, sell the plant and mill, and fill in the holes. No one else should touch it either.



Oh dear. The management must be having nightmares over this. Really, just sell the f*cker! To steal a quote from Bud Fox.

Ballarat update:



> the company will take an impairment charge against earnings in the forthcoming half-year results in the range of US$250-350 million after tax (at today’s exchange rate), to reduce the book value of the net operating assets of the Ballarat project. As noted in the 2008 audited annual accounts, the net operating assets stood at US$457 million as at 31 December 2008.




Really, they should just send all the staff to Sovereign Hill and start panning. More gold there I reckon!


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Really, just sell the f*cker!



Looks like the Directors have been reading ASF and taken this sage advice. 

Will be a nice little $300-400m right off. 

What a disaster. 

Hood should get the chop for presiding over this mother of all brain snap-pay maximum price-at the top of the cycle purchace decision. 

With the proceeds from the sale ($100m best case) how about buying an advanced explorer that actually has some gold in the ground!!


----------



## johenmo

I heard the Ballarat mine was "digging in the wrong place" - at least that's the talk from the employees.  Not many underground miners left on site.

Can't see a big miner buying it.  Anyone have any favourites for buying it?

DISC:  I don't hold any shares - just live in town.


----------



## M34N

These guys have been sliding downhill since June, roughly when the rest of the market started to pick up. Gold price has been actually up since then I believe, yet the gold miners continue to track down consistently.

LGL is hitting a nice support/resistance area around the 2.50 region, personally I'm interested a long position very soon, been over-done (the selling down) IMO. Will put up a chart hopefully later tonight but it does look like it's due for a technical bounce back up 

Noting the bad investment choice in the Ballarat mine that is now going to be sold off, I think most of the negativism has been factored in and it should recover from here, again just IMO.

Not holding ATM but should be soon...


----------



## M34N

Just a rough chart, had a spare couple minutes...

Clearly showing some strong support/resistance coming up soon.


----------



## M34N

For those interested, took a long position at 2.52 on LGL this morning... expecting a rebound up into the 2.65 region, just a gut feeling. See how it goes...


----------



## TheMainMan

M34N said:


> For those interested, took a long position at 2.52 on LGL this morning... expecting a rebound up into the 2.65 region, just a gut feeling. See how it goes...




Just a thought,

Was software do you use for your charting M34N ? If you don't mind sharing that information, and if you do it's much appresiated...


----------



## micksof

M34N said:


> For those interested, took a long position at 2.52 on LGL this morning... expecting a rebound up into the 2.65 region, just a gut feeling. See how it goes...




Hello M34N I agree with you on this one.
*
Physical Gold appears to be setting up for a nice Long Term Reverse H & S formation. If this works out it set up for a move to around $1300.*
*
LGL had a nice impulse move up from $1.52 to $3.50, currently correcting that move and a nice ABC pattern of which C is approaching completion between current levels and $2.46 if equality holds with A. I am looking at this levels to add to LGL


----------



## Sean K

LGL has been significantly affected by its disastrous foray into BGF which it paid about $500m more than it should have. The board should pay, but they won’t because too many old mates. Even EQI looks to have been overpaid for. I suppose they went for these at the top of the cycle, but evenwho, terrible strategic decisions imo, and they deserve to be punished. Now is the time for a NCM to grab them as a bolt on 40m oz extra resource. 

Or, they use their balance sheet to buy a couple of quality advanced juniors, who actually have mineable gold close to surface, instead of disparate nuggets 500m + below!!!


----------



## M34N

TheMainMan said:


> Just a thought,
> 
> Was software do you use for your charting M34N ? If you don't mind sharing that information, and if you do it's much appresiated...




Just use the E*Trade charts and do all the analysis myself, don't use any programs for charting. Mostly look out for movements like these on my list of stocks that I keep an eye on daily and follow the charts - after a while you just know what to look for. Always follow the volume and the trends.

Personally I probably should of waited to see if it falls below 2.50 but I think for the sake of a couple cents it's worth a punt, have my sell set at around 2.40 and keeping a close eye on it. A lot of the selling has seemed to of abated in the past few sessions and looks over-cooked, but again that is personal observation. Any fall lower from here and 2.25 is the next minor support, then I guess 2.00 psychological level. But I reckon it'd be a while for it to hit that and I feel a long here is worth the risk.


----------



## pedrod

M34N, 
I hope you are correct. I opened a long position a few months ago, expecting a weekly break-out. It didn't eventuate, I should have cut my losses at $3.00, but I didn't, so I'm just waiting for the rebound.
IMO, if the AUD was to dive (which I thought was going to happen) the LGL price will jump. But the AUD is just continuing to rise. It is however looking like its on a downward move of late, so I will be interested to watch LGL price.


----------



## TheMainMan

M34N said:


> Just use the E*Trade charts and do all the analysis myself, don't use any programs for charting. Mostly look out for movements like these on my list of stocks that I keep an eye on daily and follow the charts - after a while you just know what to look for. Always follow the volume and the trends.
> 
> Personally I probably should of waited to see if it falls below 2.50 but I think for the sake of a couple cents it's worth a punt, have my sell set at around 2.40 and keeping a close eye on it. A lot of the selling has seemed to of abated in the past few sessions and looks over-cooked, but again that is personal observation. Any fall lower from here and 2.25 is the next minor support, then I guess 2.00 psychological level. But I reckon it'd be a while for it to hit that and I feel a long here is worth the risk.



------------------------------------------------------------
Many thanks M34N. much appresiated.
:thankyou:


----------



## So_Cynical

micksof said:


> LGL had a nice impulse move up from $1.52 to $3.50, currently correcting that move and a nice ABC pattern of which C is approaching completion between current levels and $2.46 if equality holds with A.




Mick the $1.52 bottom was last spring, back then the world was going to hell in a hand basket, the US dollar was exploding as money rushed back to the US to cover debts and all liquid assets were getting sold at fire sale prices, physical gold and LGL included...the top in February was $3.63 intra day (memory) i know this cos i bailed at $3.60  talk about timing 

Just think that calling it an impulse move is a little bit of an understatement  i would think many LGL watchers would be very keen to jump on at under $2.40.


----------



## skc

kennas said:


> LGL has been significantly affected by its disastrous foray into BGF which it paid about $500m more than it should have. The board should pay, but they won’t because too many old mates. Even EQI looks to have been overpaid for. I suppose they went for these at the top of the cycle, but evenwho, terrible strategic decisions imo, and they deserve to be punished. *Now is the time for a NCM to grab them as a bolt on 40m oz extra resource. *
> 
> Or, they use their balance sheet to buy a couple of quality advanced juniors, who actually have mineable gold close to surface, instead of disparate nuggets 500m + below!!!




Now that I like to see. Is there any truth to this or just your own thought Kennas? 

I have a pairs trade on long LGL short NCM.


----------



## So_Cynical

skc said:


> Now that I like to see. Is there any truth to this or just your own thought Kennas?
> 
> I have a pairs trade on long LGL short NCM.




Kennas has been spruking a takeover of LGL for the last 3 years...just wishful thinking i reckon.


----------



## skc

So_Cynical said:


> Kennas has been spruking a takeover of LGL for the last 3 years...just wishful thinking i reckon.




Kennas is on first name basis with most of the directors on NCM and LGL...

Too bad these directors don't know him.


----------



## Sean K

I've been sprewking this since I first bought LGL. In 1995! 

I reckon I'll be right one day. One day ..... 

Come on Hood and Smith, say I do and kiss!


----------



## M34N

Hmmm, volume is a bit higher today than the past few sessions, and notice the spike in volume on the break below 2.50... maybe bought in a little early on this one, didn't expect that to be honest, would of expected it to hold for at least today. Wonder where the low will form and when the insto's will decide enough is enough and buy in? The constant selling down seems bizarre since it doesn't seem, to me anyway, to be a lot of short selling - just a lack of confidence?

May have to wait for a big sell down and the reversal on high volume for this one. Still holding for now, sell at 2.40 still set so if it hits, it hits.


----------



## TheMainMan

Always a worry when it drops. But all I can see is they totally keep blowing the profits! Like 1/2 a billion on Ballarat, with gold price what it is and there hedging closed out, I don't see that to be much of a problem long term. However if management keep demonstrating these levels of incompetence I'll have to sell at the next rebound, which IMO is certain to happen.
Yep needs new management....I reckon Newcrest should just come and offer to replace these twats! Can I say that here?


----------



## M34N

Looking flat with a negative bias again today with little explanation as to why, volume again increasing and looking at the candlestick chart from yesterday, I personally don't hold too much hope. Still holding right now with sell at 2.40, if the candlestick chart shows a nice close higher today on this volume, it would be an indication of a bullish reversal from the negative trend, but I'm not too sure today the volume seemed to be on the upside movements earlier in the morning today and not on the selling - so will be interesting to see where it ends up at the close today.

Daily one-month candlestick chart attached, 2.50 resistance hit today FWIW too and smacked down solidly to 2.44 intra-day low today... and it's only 11.10AM!


----------



## M34N

Interesting price movement today, smashing through the 2.50 mark which became a level of resistance over the last few sessions, now rocketing up to 2.57 at the moment even with gold down significantly overnight. Pricing in a bumper profit result for Thursday? And what happens if it disappoints? I was lucky to avoid having a stop-loss sell order from executing last week by a mere cent...

This is probably confirmation of a reversal of trend after last Thursday/Friday's lows, looks like a doji star with bullish reversal has now occurred but needs to be confirmed, those with more experience in candlestick charts might be able to confirm this. Will see how it goes and finishes today; IMO a close lower again today would be extremely bearish, so needs to confirm a positive close to confirm a reversal in trend.


----------



## ozrob

MELBOURNE, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Lihir Gold Ltd (LGL.AX) on Wednesday said its first-half underlying profit more than doubled, beating expectations, and boosted its resource estimates for its mines at Lihir Island and in Cote d'Ivoire.

Lihir said it had increased its indicated resource estimates for the open pit gold deposit at Lihir Island by 31 percent to 43 million ounces.

In Cote d'Ivoire, Lihir lifted its measured and indicated resource estimates for the Hire district to 442,000 ounces from 352,000 ounces.

Lihir is reducing its reliance on its main mine in Papua New Guinea by expanding into West Africa and expects to yield 1.2 million ounces in 2009 after reporting record first-half output last month.

Lihir maintained its group production guidance at 1-1.2 million ounces for the full year.

For the six months to June 30, Lihir said underlying profit rose to $154.9 million from $67.4 million, against analysts' expectations of around $109 million.

The company posted a net loss after one-off charges of $300.9 million, down from a profit of $36.5 million in the prior year.

The one-offs included an impairment charge on the Ballarat gold mine of $409 million.

Total cash costs per ounce for the full year were expected to be below $400 per ounce, after declining to $350 an ounce in the first half. The industry average was $437 per ounce in the March quarter, according to Macquarie Bank data. (Reporting by Victoria Thieberger; Editing by James Thornhill) 

Good result and has been reflect in today surge in sp which hit 2.77 and currently trading at 2.74


----------



## Sean K

Great resource upgrades, but would have liked to see even more from Africa. They are really still a one trick pony with Lihir Island, and have failed to spread their risk adequately over the past few years. They've tried to do that by (over)paying for EQI in nice safe Africa, and (dramatically over)paying for BGF, which I could see was a turkey all the way from Peru. Hood's head should roll. Management have cost shareholders a half a billion dollars! They really need a significant bolt on with the potential to produce, or producing up to a third of their ounces, lets say 200-400k pa. PRU looks tastey but a way off production of course.


----------



## M34N

Sitting on 2.72 right now after hitting day high of 2.77, traders pushed this one up a fair bit today (to say the least). Will be interesting to see how much the takeover offer that's made for Sino Gold is and if this also affects the price of Lihir and other gold miners.

Either way, my sell has been moved up to the 2.65 region from 2.40 I had on it the other day, so holding still to ride this one up. Some on other forums have been speculating on a jump to the 2.80 (previous SPP level?) or 3.00 (long-term psychological price) range but I personally feel the 2.75 level should provide a fair bit of resistance especially after today's run up, interested to see if it can hold or break through here.


----------



## Sean K

M34N said:


> Sitting on 2.72 right now after hitting day high of 2.77, traders pushed this one up a fair bit today (to say the least). Will be interesting to see how much the takeover offer that's made for Sino Gold is and if this also affects the price of Lihir and other gold miners.
> 
> Either way, my sell has been moved up to the 2.65 region from 2.40 I had on it the other day, so holding still to ride this one up. Some on other forums have been speculating on a jump to the 2.80 (previous SPP level?) or 3.00 (long-term psychological price) range but I personally feel the 2.75 level should provide a fair bit of resistance especially after today's run up, interested to see if it can hold or break through here.



The SGX offer will value their ounces at more than $200. Lihir is currently sitting just over $100 and NCM just under $100. SGX has always run at a very high valuation, not sure why. Perhaps the exploration upside and grades. But double?


----------



## So_Cynical

kennas said:


> They are really still a one trick pony with Lihir Island, and have failed to spread their risk adequately over the past few years.



 Oh but what a pony it is...a 43 million ounce pony is one hell of a pony  its impossible to spread risk when u have 43 million ounces in one place, they would have to buy 10 AND's...the top 20 Aussie explorers wouldn't have 43 million ounces between them.


----------



## Sean K

So_Cynical said:


> Oh but what a pony it is...a 43 million ounce pony is one hell of a pony



Yes, nice pony!

Why not use the balance sheet to buy another 5-10m oz somewhere for just a few mill? PRU, just sitting there waiting to be taken! 

Knowing Hoods record he'll probably go for a turkey like SBM or CTO. He really should be hung drawn and quartered for the Ballarat debarcle, but no. We powerless investors sit back and he gets his multi million dollar salary for losing $500m in investors interest. Unbelievable!  

The only thing keeping him alive is $1000 POG. 

Here's a 3 year non algo chart with some red, blue and green lines on it. Great support at $2.75, $3.25 potential short term break up, over $3.50 looks very bullish. 

Come on Hood, create some value!


----------



## swm79

but with the way things are with LGL they give you the most leverage for an appreciating POG and a depreciating $US... thats EXACTLY what i want at the moment!

if it goes close to $2.75 again in the near future the pony looks more like Makybe Diva to me and i'll be back on board after turning my back on them in pure frustration!


----------



## vincent191

How the hell did they buy a goldmine with no gold for half a billion dollars?  If I f-ed up $5,000 I will be joining the dole q. Why is this bloke in LGL still got a job and been paid millions??  For this reason and this reason alone I will not buy LGL. 

This is the small shareholders way of protesting same as with RIO, I find it hard to believe in incompetence of their CEO. Buying Alcoa at some fantastic price and then rejecting the BHP offer and nearly stuff it all up with the failed Chinalco saga. Losted something like $20 billion and still have a job paying a multi million salary.


----------



## Sean K

swm79 said:


> but with the way things are with LGL they give you the most leverage for an appreciating POG and a depreciating $US... thats EXACTLY what i want at the moment!
> 
> if it goes close to $2.75 again in the near future the pony looks more like Makybe Diva to me and i'll be back on board after turning my back on them in pure frustration!



This was one of my first investments back in 94, so unfortunately I have some emotion attached here. My dad is still waiting for a dividend before he sells. I think he'll be 180 years old before that happens. The only thing you really want from a gold company is capital growth. Yes, nice if you bought in 00 and added. But for recent holders since 06 it's a dog. Having said that, I'm half invested in this turkey waiting for decent managment to create value, or for a takeover. Have only been waiting 15 years!!!


----------



## swm79

kennas said:


> This was one of my first investments back in 94, so unfortunately I have some emotion attached here. My dad is still waiting for a dividend before he sells. I think he'll be 180 years old before that happens. The only thing you really want from a gold company is capital growth. Yes, nice if you bought in 00 and added. But for recent holders since 06 it's a dog. Having said that, I'm half invested in this turkey waiting for decent managment to create value, or for a takeover. Have only been waiting 15 years!!!




aaaahhhhh ok. now it makes sense. 

yeah, waiting for the div is going to be a looooong time

someone once said "never get emotionally attached to the stock" 

... the opportunity cost you must have lost - i cant fathom

i guess it must be hard to give up the battle of waiting for a return on that one.

good luck... imo if you stick with it, it will reward you - i mean hell, i'm looking at buying it 

to quote jesse livermore: “I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.”


----------



## eddyeagle

kennas said:


> But for recent holders since 06 it's a dog.




Agree with that! Has spent a lot of time aorund the $3 mark. 

Gotta be due for a run towards $4 soon with gold above US$1000!


----------



## Muschu

Curious stuff "gold".  Can anyone help me to understand why, when the price of gold is heading north -- stocks such as LGL went up today but the price of holding [stock code] GOLD went down?


----------



## Sean K

Now that the've gotten rid of the Ballarat monkey (I say again, heads should roll - $500m down the drain) they might get some traction. However, Lihir Island is still a worry to some degree. While it has a billion ounces or whatever, it's a bloody volcano! Must say, I'm not sure how stable the fault is, must be ok, but....They must diversify more, and much more significantly. One decent tremor close by and you might watch the stock disintigrate rather quickly. Any of you guys researched the geological risk? Maybe there is none since they have developed this whopping mine worth billions.


----------



## So_Cynical

Muschu said:


> Curious stuff "gold".  Can anyone help me to understand why, when the price of gold is heading north -- stocks such as LGL went up today but the price of holding [stock code] GOLD went down?




ETFS PHYSICAL GOLD is traded in Australian dollars...USD gold price going up, Aust dollar 
gold price falling, cos our dollar is rallying, as for the stocks ive noticed the miners operating 
in USD environments are doing much better than the miners with all Aussie operations.

LGL operates in West Africa and PNG mostly so not that affected by the Aussie dollar.

http://www.asx.com.au/products/pdf/etfs_fact_sheet_physical_gold.pdf


----------



## shag

kennas said:


> Now that the've gotten rid of the Ballarat monkey (I say again, heads should roll - $500m down the drain) they might get some traction. However, Lihir Island is still a worry to some degree. While it has a billion ounces or whatever, it's a bloody volcano! Must say, I'm not sure how stable the fault is, must be ok, but....They must diversify more, and much more significantly. One decent tremor close by and you might watch the stock disintigrate rather quickly. Any of you guys researched the geological risk? Maybe there is none since they have developed this whopping mine worth billions.




i just figure if/when a fault reallignment occurs, it will just loosen a few rocks for them, and save a bit of powder.
even if its shaken to hell u would figure it still would b dough out again and mined. like it has such a large resource, at good grades.
and its very, very unlikely the magma would start to flow in its short lifespan-say 100yrs odd.
the beancounters seem overtly worried about downtime if it shakes a bit. it seems such a valuable resource even if it was shut down for a short period(minelifewise).
it would b good if a geo gave us their view. but really seismic risk is like tossing a coin in these short periods, and its still a relatively evolving field.
look at the dramatic change of opinion of seismic risk in wellington-nz, today.
a major fault zone.


----------



## Muschu

So_Cynical said:


> ETFS PHYSICAL GOLD is traded in Australian dollars...USD gold price going up, Aust dollar
> gold price falling, cos our dollar is rallying, as for the stocks ive noticed the miners operating
> in USD environments are doing much better than the miners with all Aussie operations.
> 
> LGL operates in West Africa and PNG mostly so not that affected by the Aussie dollar.
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/products/pdf/etfs_fact_sheet_physical_gold.pdf




Helpful reply SC - many thanks.  I'll be interested to see which way LGL goes from here.....................


----------



## eddyeagle

Lihir back under 3 bucks today - the world's most annoying gold stock! 

Just gotta be patient with this one I guess. I'm sure if I sold out, it would head straight to 4 bucks


----------



## eddyeagle

The gold price has just lept to US $1038 - it has to be time for LGL to do something surely! Get up!


----------



## Sean K

eddyeagle said:


> The gold price has just lept to US $1038 - it has to be time for LGL to do something surely! Get up!



Still taking the pain from the BGF debarcle and EQI over priced buy at the top of the market probably, as they should. I'm gobsmacked that directors and management haven't been made to pay for their only two significant decisions over the past 15 years. Quite unbelieveable actually.


----------



## swm79

you'd think these jaws would have to close sometimes soon kenna...

makes me wish i had have jumped aboard around the $2.50 mark in august.... but the again, the amount of pain everyone has had with this one makes me feel like its a bit of a dog


----------



## eddyeagle

Looks like we could be finally getting a run from LGL!

It's had some good sessions recently! Volume is up. 

Fund managers seem to be pretty positive with a few price targets around the $3.90 - $4 mark.


----------



## panikhide

eddyeagle said:


> Fund managers seem to be pretty positive with a few price targets around the $3.90 - $4 mark.




Hi Eddy

Which fund managers have been putting forward these targets? Can you back that statement up somehow?

panikhide


----------



## eddyeagle

panikhide said:


> Hi Eddy
> 
> Which fund managers have been putting forward these targets? Can you back that statement up somehow?
> 
> panikhide





From Bloomberg:

Morgan Stanley $3.78
Deutsche $4.00
GSJBW $3.90

May have jinxed it as it took a hit today and gold is down too!


----------



## Miner

eddyeagle said:


> From Bloomberg:
> 
> Morgan Stanley $3.78
> Deutsche $4.00
> GSJBW $3.90
> 
> May have jinxed it as it took a hit today and gold is down too!




Only down by 3.2% and I will not be too concerned considering it was the Aussie Dollar which made gold looking like cheapy.


----------



## prawn_86

I must admit im not a gold bug, but why is LGL always quoted in the media as good exposure to gold? Is it because they only produce gold? It certainly cant be due to any correlation with the gold price.

They first broke $3 early 2006 and 3.5 years later they are still around that price...


----------



## Sean K

prawn_86 said:


> I must admit im not a gold bug, but why is LGL always quoted in the media as good exposure to gold? Is it because they only produce gold? It certainly cant be due to any correlation with the gold price.
> 
> They first broke $3 early 2006 and 3.5 years later they are still around that price...



They are very good exposure to operpriced M&A activity imo. Ballarat was a dead set bargain. 

They have certainly been an up and down stock. I first bought in 1995 when the sp was about $2.40. And it's heading back there again by the look! lol 

I'm starting to think there is no value in this for a buy and hold investor, but if you had been trading the troughs and peaks you'd have done alright.

Maybe they'll get the mix of assets right soon with a decent acquisition, or merger, Lihir Island won't explode, gold will continue to climb, and they'll start appreciating in value...


----------



## GoodCall

I too am a frustrated Lihir shareholder.

Good news, as well as the stock rising on a golden tide today, I also found out that it will be paying a dividend of $US1.5c/share on November 30th.  Together with the 7.5 million oz (minimum) increase in reserves, do I dare hope that it will finally take off after so many false starts?

Please refer to their 3rd quarter production report for details.


----------



## chatty

I have long position for this stock. I consider it as hedge against my portfolio.

First, the operation is outside Australia so when AUD currency turns against the return on my portolio. LGL is some kind of insurance for me.

Secondly, it's one of the largest gold producers and profit margin is increasing due to the increase in gold price.

From the memory, its production cost is only $400/oz?? gold price is now at new high $1,090/oz.

I anticipate good financial results (besides from that stupid M & A deal )


----------



## Sean K

The market has always factored in quite high growth for LGL. ANZ have them with a p/e of 26. NEM 18. KCN 16. However, NCM at 34 looks out of place. Maybe that's incorrect? 

Gold racing above 1090 now. Must be a more decent correction for USD shortly. It can't just fall straight to zero. As POG seems to be just tracking USD, expect a decent correction at some point. And if Rubini is correct and the USD carry trade pops forcing an equities exit stampede, there may be a more significant market correction just down the track to take our stocks with it.  

Still time to be cautious imo, but make money while the sun shines!


----------



## tjpj1919

Excuse my ignorance but can anyone please explain to me what is going on today with the parcels of 10 and 15? 

thanks


----------



## bluefire

Charlie Aitken's (Southern Cross Equities) article today focused on Aus gold. They are bullish on gold and expect gold to be moving to $1500oz-$2000oz over the next few years.
Their LGL trading target is $4.50.


----------



## Tukker

kennas said:


> The market has always factored in quite high growth for LGL. ANZ have them with a p/e of 26. NEM 18. KCN 16. However, NCM at 34 looks out of place. Maybe that's incorrect?
> 
> Gold racing above 1090 now. Must be a more decent correction for USD shortly. It can't just fall straight to zero. As POG seems to be just tracking USD, expect a decent correction at some point. And if Rubini is correct and the USD carry trade pops forcing an equities exit stampede, there may be a more significant market correction just down the track to take our stocks with it.
> 
> Still time to be cautious imo, but make money while the sun shines!




Ive been following this idea as well. I was told by 2 separate brokers to expect a moderate correction in December.  With gold skyrocketing i think this is a reasonable sign that the correction is setting itself up. 

Back on topic - Chart looks right for a correction of some kind. Perhaps 3.25 - 3.20 support.   But yea general bullish view on gold for now, and recovering USD to provide some resistance next month.







P.S. - How do i stop the images from resizing themselves?


----------



## Sean K

Well, it's about bloody time!

LGL has been a laughing stock after the Ballarat debarcle and overpayment for EQI and Hood should have been given the chop some time ago.




> *Lihir rocked by CEO's exit *
> 
> Sarah-Jane Tasker From: The Australian January 19, 2010
> 
> LIHIR Gold, the country's second-biggest listed goldminer, was thrown into turmoil yesterday when chief executive Arthur Hood quit abruptly after being told his contract would not be renewed in September.
> 
> The company has been forced to install chief financial officer Phil Baker as acting chief executive as it launches a global search for Mr Hood's replacement.




And instead of doing the right thing, he's going to take whatever golden handshake is given and run for the Caymans. 



But, this is good news for LGL in my opinion. Now that they've shaken this dead wood loose, they can get hold of a decent CEO and start creating some real value.


----------



## GumbyLearner

kennas said:


> Well, it's about bloody time!
> 
> LGL has been a laughing stock after the Ballarat debarcle and overpayment for EQI and Hood should have been given the chop some time ago.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And instead of doing the right thing, he's going to take whatever golden handshake is given and run for the Caymans.
> 
> 
> 
> But, this is good news for LGL in my opinion. Now that they've shaken this dead wood loose, they can get hold of a decent CEO and start creating some real value.




I agree. That guy gave me no faith to buy LGL stock. Hopefully the next CEO will make some reasoned rational decisions.


----------



## Out Too Soon

kennas said:


> Well, it's about bloody time!
> 
> LGL has been a laughing stock after the Ballarat debarcle and overpayment for EQI and Hood should have been given the chop some time ago.
> 
> And instead of doing the right thing, he's going to take whatever golden handshake is given and run for the Caymans.
> 
> 
> 
> But, this is good news for LGL in my opinion. Now that they've shaken this dead wood loose, they can get hold of a decent CEO and start creating some real value.




Can all the blame be placed on the CEO though? Surely the whole board needs to be sacked, tarred & feathered


----------



## chatty

First stock in my portfolio that I decided to hold long. and look what it did to me. 
got in 2.92 ages ago and it tok this stock forever to reach 3.70 then I decided to be a real long term holder.
noe 2.71

I think I better stick with my 1-3 months holding plan. and the situation at the moment leads me to believe that we should be a day trader.


----------



## TheMainMan

I was worried for a while, what with the CEO resigning. But when I got the charts up, along with Newcrest, Dominion, etc'... They all have pretty much the same pattern. across the board. So not isolated to this stock.
  But where did this money go? The currency markets where nothing unusual, the bond market is a NO NO, So I figure there is just a load of Ozzy dollars sitting in accounts getting 8% Spooked out of the market. The higher interest rates might have something to do with it.

They'll be back.


----------



## Boggo

Been watching this stock for a while now, its done the turn, whether it keeps going or not is the next issue.

As someone said earlier, nearly every stock in this whole sector looks much like this chart.

(click to expand)


----------



## late_start

Could someone please explain the release today on ASX website regarding to "Mt Rawdon Reserve and Resource Update"?  Is this a good news or bad news?


----------



## Sean K

late_start said:


> Could someone please explain the release today on ASX website regarding to "Mt Rawdon Reserve and Resource Update"?  Is this a good news or bad news?



 Um, did you open the announcement and read it?



> 18 February 2010
> 
> *LGL updates Mt Rawdon Reserves and Resources*
> 
> A higher gold price, reduced cut-off grade and adjusted cost assumptions have led to increased gold reserves at Lihir Gold Ltd’s Mt Rawdon operation in Queensland.
> 
> The total gold reserve has risen to 835,000 ounces, up 21,000 ounces from the previous 2007 reserve, adjusted for mining depletion.
> 
> Silver reserve was at 2.6 million ounces, which is up from 2.3 million ounces previously (based on the 2007 reserve depleted by mining).




Increased reserves after depletion is probaby a good thing, unless the market was expecting a larger upgrade of course.  Although, I'm not sure if the market cares about Mt Rawdon at all. It's chicken feed compared to Lihir and Bonkoro.


----------



## late_start

Thanks Kennas.  I have read it, but the market responses to a negative way, that's why I was wondering if I misunderstood it.  But now that you mentioned Lihir and Bonkoro, this explained why.


----------



## Sean K

late_start said:


> Thanks Kennas.  I have read it, but the market responses to a negative way, that's why I was wondering if I misunderstood it.  But now that you mentioned Lihir and Bonkoro, this explained why.



Yeah, the response to the anns was probably something other than Mt Rawdon. Although, I did see someone on TV saying that the report was better than expected..Obviously the Ballarat writedown was a disaster but should have been well factored in. Maybe just an off market day...


----------



## skyQuake

And the rumours come true! $3.87 bid by newcrest rejected!
Fun times for the sector, flow on effect should see a nice rally for the other goldies


----------



## namrog

skyQuake said:


> And the rumours come true! $3.87 bid by newcrest rejected!
> Fun times for the sector, flow on effect should see a nice rally for the other goldies




Looks like LGL management were very quick to dismiss offer, I would have thought that most LGL holders would accept such an offer, so maybe instead of a takeover, a combined entity will emerge , would be better for both companies in my humble oppinion especially Lihir island dependent LGL...as is reflected by todays SP = LGL up 30 %---- NCM down a couple %.... ????


----------



## skyQuake

namrog said:


> Looks like LGL management were very quick to dismiss offer, I would have thought that most LGL holders would accept such an offer, so maybe instead of a takeover, a combined entity will emerge , would be better for both companies in my humble oppinion especially Lihir island dependent LGL...as is reflected by todays SP = LGL up 30 %---- NCM down a couple %.... ????




Wouldn't be surprised to see a counter bid by newmont or anglo gold. Quite a few players out there that would like a piece of the pie!


----------



## vincent191

LGL Directors can dismiss it all they want. I will be voting YES!!!!  As a long suffering shareholder of LGL I have no confidence in LGL's management. Of course they will try to hang on to their jobs but it is time for them to fall off the gravy train.


----------



## chatty

Goshh!! Lucky me. I was thinking about selling it yesterday coz I was sick and tired or see shar price going no where.

Then, I changed my mind. thinking ummm.. I will treat this share as a long termmmmmmmmmmmmm  investment (urley funadamental reason re: gold price)


----------



## McCoy Pauley

skyQuake said:


> Wouldn't be surprised to see a counter bid by newmont or anglo gold. Quite a few players out there that would like a piece of the pie!




Thought I read somewhere online this afternoon that the LGL board confirmed that no other bid had been received.  I guess that won't rule it out, but it seems like Newmont is the only suitor.


----------



## Sean K

LGL management prove yet again to be imbiciles. The price is good. 

What a dream team NCM and LGL would make.


----------



## Crom

I bought Lihir only recently as a take over play when the price was $2.77, so have not had to put up with the frustrations of their management.

The question that I would like this thread to consider, is what is fair value for LGL.

LGL closed at $4.04, and guess what, Mkt Cap divided by shares on issue equals, $4.04!

LGL has a current resource of 33 MOz, and a life of over 20 years.  There is also the processing of tailings which will add a similar no of years.  PLUS, it has assets in west Africa and Australia (Mt Rawdon).

Shouldn't a takeover bid include consideration of the immensity of reserves, long life of production, and additional operations (resources), rather than just a basic valuation which was below Mkt Cap divided by shares on issue.

I am not ready to sell my holdings just yet.  I think there is still more in the pot!


----------



## Sean K

By my records the offer is about $150 an ounce of gold, which is very low for a takeover of a gold company, but they have massive risk. Lihir Island is a bloody volcano for Gods sake. And they have proved through the past 10 years of bodgy management to not have a schmick. The EQI buy was way over priced and Ballarat? Lets not go there shall we. Idiots. 

And now, NCM can't make another offer for 9 months, or whatever. Another STUPID management decision. 

Or, perhaps it opens up the door for another major to trump NCM.


----------



## Crom

They can make another offer whenever they want, but they can't pursue a hostile takeover for 9 months.


----------



## chatty

They accept their stupidity and the new CEO from BHP should make the difference? Country risk maybe high but this is offset by upside gain of gold price and low production cost.

I looked at their financial report this year (just got it 2 days ago). All financial indicators, operating cashflow, cash margin, cash at bank, profitability. All of them are trending up.

Though dividends remain low  but i can see it will get better. 

I can understand the good combination of NCM and LGL but I tend to agree that the offer is too low for enterprise value. 
Your thought Kennas??


----------



## late_start

Why did LGL pay dividend in US dollars ???  Paying A$20 for a conversion to deposit the cheque today    not happy Jannnnnn... !@#$@^%%$^*#$%


----------



## sinic

Computershare registry stuffed up. They are supposed to pay $aud to shareholders with an australian address.  I complained - they know about it but wouldnot say how many were effected - supposed to get back to me to say what they are going to do about it.


----------



## robots

hello,

any more thoughts on this one, start selling? hold out for the good times?

or wait for Newcrest to takeover?

thankyou
robots


----------



## Sean K

robots said:


> hello,
> 
> any more thoughts on this one, start selling? hold out for the good times?
> 
> or wait for Newcrest to takeover?
> 
> thankyou
> robots



HUH?  Lihir is a gold miner robots, not a property developer. 

How's Fitzroy as a suburb to buy in? Gold mine you reckon?


----------



## robots

hello,

oh yeah, Fitzroy property over the same $ value of the precious yellow metal any day

but i have purchased a property and offloading some shares, not screaming for the coin but if LGL goes up another 10-20cents would be worth the hold out

thankyou
robots


----------



## sneak'n

Newcrests offer places LGL at a notional $4.18 which is quite short of its $3.99 close. 
Typically on takeover offers there is little gap, with the higher price tending to favour the party being chased.
A recent example was Dioro which, if my memory serves well, saw its share price triple before the final takeover offer was accepted.
I am not suggesting LGL will parallel DIO, but to believe Newcrest will place just one offer before LGL defies the trend of most previous offers.
Now add to the mix some global themes.
Begin with a strong gold price, in a bullish mode (somewhat against the norm for this time of year).  Follow it with realistic predictions of a much higher price later this year, with many pundits tipping around $1500/oz.
Match that against an enterprise value for LGL: Approx 2.3b shares and 46 million ounces of gold resources, with continued growth of the resource base.
Lihir has cash cost in the lowest quartile, and cash margins in the highest.
Lihir's African exploration potential is yet to be realised, although its Bonikro operation is already very profitable.
Lihir has told Newcrest its offer does not offer any premium, and it clearly does not.
Newcrest needs to be careful it does not delay in making a better offer because if gold prices tend higher LGL owners know it will improve its dividend while continuing to increase production and profits.


----------



## JTLP

sneak'n said:


> Newcrests offer places LGL at a notional $4.18 which is quite short of its $3.99 close.
> Typically on takeover offers there is little gap, with the higher price tending to favour the party being chased.
> A recent example was Dioro which, if my memory serves well, saw its share price triple before the final takeover offer was accepted.
> I am not suggesting LGL will parallel DIO, but to believe Newcrest will place just one offer before LGL defies the trend of most previous offers.
> Now add to the mix some global themes.
> Begin with a strong gold price, in a bullish mode (somewhat against the norm for this time of year).  Follow it with realistic predictions of a much higher price later this year, with many pundits tipping around $1500/oz.
> Match that against an enterprise value for LGL: Approx 2.3b shares and 46 million ounces of gold resources, with continued growth of the resource base.
> Lihir has cash cost in the lowest quartile, and cash margins in the highest.
> Lihir's African exploration potential is yet to be realised, although its Bonikro operation is already very profitable.
> Lihir has told Newcrest its offer does not offer any premium, and it clearly does not.
> Newcrest needs to be careful it does not delay in making a better offer because if gold prices tend higher LGL owners know it will improve its dividend while continuing to increase production and profits.




I just feel sorry for poor Kennas. He has been hoping for this takeover for quite some time and now they reject it!

Lihir does have a bit of risk associated with it though...the countries and surroundings it operates in aren't the most sound and secure. What if the volcano explodes? Mmm.

NCM did offer quite a premium to the LGL sp but I can still see how holder's want more.


----------



## sneak'n

JTLP said:


> I Lihir does have a bit of risk associated with it though...the countries and surroundings it operates in aren't the most sound and secure. What if the volcano explodes? Mmm.



Lihir Island is on the Rim of Fire.  Not much chance of an eruption, although earthquakes are par for the course in that region. My fear would be a tsunami that rolled up the shores and took out LGL's facilities.
Aside from that, in the gold mining game a greater risk is a team of turkeys at the helm, such as befell Croesus and the mob in WA that had the gold/tantalum mine (forgot their name- sorry).


----------



## JTLP

sneak'n said:


> Lihir Island is on the Rim of Fire.  Not much chance of an eruption, although earthquakes are par for the course in that region. My fear would be a tsunami that rolled up the shores and took out LGL's facilities.
> Aside from that, in the gold mining game a greater risk is a team of turkeys at the helm, such as befell Croesus and the mob in WA that had the gold/tantalum mine (forgot their name- sorry).




The turkeys at LGL overpaid for Equinox or whatever it was called...also the mine in Victoria was a big mess.

I don't hold Lihir but if I was a holder i'd be pretty annoyed. This is basically a saving grace for long term sufferers.


----------



## wecanallinvest

sinic said:


> Computershare registry stuffed up. They are supposed to pay $aud to shareholders with an australian address.  I complained - they know about it but wouldnot say how many were effected - supposed to get back to me to say what they are going to do about it.




Any more news on this? I got a call from my bank today advising me of the $20 fee to clear my cheque so not happy either...


----------



## sinic

They claim to have sent a letter on Friday - giving 2 options.
1. bank the us cheque and bear the costs
2. send back the check and they would do a direct credit in aud to an account you nominate.

I have not seen the letter yet but I will send they cheque back -

I would ring them up and complain that their incompetence has cost you $$.
How hard can it be to have  a computer system send the correct dividend to a shareholder?


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## late_start

just received the letter today advising exactly what Sinic said.  Well, too late for me, deposit the cheque on the very first day of receiving it.  Paid $20 fees. Sold all the LGL shares the next day.


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## Boggo

Order filled, good looking and almost irresistable R/R however it is a Rudd influence free OS gold stock.

Lets see how this pans out 



wecanallinvest said:


> Any more news on this? I got a call from my bank today advising me of the $20 fee to clear my cheque so not happy either...



Bendigo Bank (formerly Adelaide Bank) only charged me $10 for the conversion.

(click to enlarge)


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## Fed23

Was wondering if someone couldhelp me out. I didnt vote on the scheme for the NCM take over.

I understand that tehre was the mix and match 8.43shares plus 22.5cents a sahre, but cause I didnt vote I get the maximum share consideration. Did I just get jipped?


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## Sean K

Fed23 said:


> Was wondering if someone couldhelp me out. I didnt vote on the scheme for the NCM take over.
> 
> I understand that tehre was the mix and match 8.43shares plus 22.5cents a sahre, but cause I didnt vote I get the maximum share consideration. Did I just get jipped?



To clarify your position you should call the company and explain your situation. Go to the LGL website and start here:

Media / Investor Relations Contact:

Josie Brophy                                  
Corporate Communications Manager
Phone: (+617) 3318 3317
Fax: (+617) 3318 9203
Email: Josie.Brophy@lglgold.com 

Joel Forwood
Investor Relations Manager
Phone: (+617) 3318 3331
Fax: (+617) 3318 9203
Email: Joel.Forwood@lglgold.com


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