# AMC - Amcor Limited



## Joe Blow (18 June 2004)

*AMC - Is it going back over $7?*

AMC got hit fairly hard a while back and has since slumped to around $6.50.

More recently it has rallied back to about $6.90 and is looking as though it might be forming a new uptrend.

Is it going higher or is it now overbought and ready to decline again?


----------



## RichKid (20 June 2004)

*Re: AMC - Is it going back over $7?*

G'day, 
I'm new to these forums and stocks but thought I'd offer what little I know (or think I do!), so here goes:

Looks like people have realised it's been oversold, volume has picked up in the last month. I just checked some of the announcements and seems bad earnings news was partly responsible for the big drop. 

The price seems to have broken out at the end of wedge there; a bit carefully at first but then hit the tail end of the big drop in mid April (c. $7.20). Maybe it'll waiver a while at this level and surge to just around $7.62- I've heard big gaps (like the one in April) usually have a dramatic effect on prices (either way) once the level is reached. But then again sentiment might change and it might reverse trend around $7.20 (there seem to be quite a few reversals around that price historically). 

Also, the Aussie$ doesn't seem to be getting any stronger (part of the earnings downgrade was blamed on a strong Aussie) so maybe $6.90-$7 will form strong support. Lots of maybe's here- can someone with experience in charting offer an opinion? ???


----------



## GreatPig (21 August 2004)

*AMC picking up*

AMC (Amcor) is picking up nicely since breaking the trend line.

Current price by Yahoo is $7.17. Acquired it a couple of days ago for $6.80.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## stefan (21 August 2004)

*Re: AMC picking up*

Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Rohan Gallagher said some modest upgrades might be required, in line with Amcor's 20 per cent earnings growth target over two years.
"Incremental earnings growth should come from currency relief, restructuring benefits, previous growth funds redeployed and a cyclical Sunclipse recovery," Mr Gallagher said.
Amcor is closing down underperforming plants with an accompanying loss of 900 jobs, reducing capital, driving down costs and improving productivity in a disciplined strategy.
This is expected to cost about $160 million with $65 million per annum benefits.
The closures and restructures will be completed over the next six years with 50 per cent of the benefits achieved in 2004/05 with the remainder in 2005/06.
Mr Gallagher said he was pleased with Amcor's "back to basics" style strategic commentary.
"This involves optimising operating cash flow out of its existing businesses," he said.
Amcor products range from plastic bottles for Coca Cola, tobacco cartons for Russian cigarettes, cardboard egg cartons and vacuum seal food packs.
Mr Gallagher said surplus cash flow could be used to retire debt, support organic growth, grow niche markets, particularly in eastern Europe Flexibles and North American PET and buy back any dilutionary DRP.
Shares in Amcor were 10 cents stronger at $7.14 by 1050 AEST.
AAP


----------



## GreatPig (21 August 2004)

*Re: AMC picking up*



			
				stefan said:
			
		

> Mr Gallagher said surplus cash flow could be used to retire debt, support organic growth, grow niche markets, particularly in eastern Europe Flexibles and North American PET and buy back any dilutionary DRP



Or pay more dividends? ;D

GP


----------



## stefan (21 August 2004)

*Re: AMC picking up*



> Or pay more dividends?




They don't pay dividends to paper traders  



> Amcor products range from plastic bottles for Coca Cola, tobacco cartons for Russian cigarettes, cardboard egg cartons and vacuum seal food packs.



As long as people keep drinking coke and smoking cigarettes in Russia, Amcor should be doing just fine. I can't see much of a risk that these 2 things will disappear.

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## GreatPig (21 August 2004)

*Re: AMC picking up*



			
				stefan said:
			
		

> They don't pay dividends to paper traders



But I could still add them to my theoretical profit, except that I don't bother to look at what dividends are being declared. I'm just focusing on gains at the moment.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## stefan (21 August 2004)

*Re: AMC picking up*



> I'm just focusing on gains at the moment.



You are just one greedy trader.  ;D 

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## GreatPig (21 August 2004)

*Re: AMC picking up*



			
				stefan said:
			
		

> You are just one greedy trader. ;D



Are you suggesting I should be focusing on making losses instead? ;D

GP


----------



## GreatPig (23 August 2004)

*Re: AMC picking up*

Looking at this over a longer period shows what could be a double bottom formation. So while the spurt of the last few days is unlikely to be maintained, it could be the start of a longer term uptrend.

The weekly chart perhaps shows this a bit clearer.

This is of course just my own observation from the chart and should not be taken as a recommendation.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## TjamesX (28 April 2005)

Amcor share price hit a 12 month low today closing at $6.55, mostly as a result of forecasts that they will not meet 20% profit growth target.

I have held this stock in the last 12 months and have made some pretty good $$ selling at the right time , I currently don't hold any....

Does anyone else follow this one? In recent years the company made a large aquisition - which it is now trying to reap the integration benefits from, however they are getting squeezed on rising raw material costs and the possability of lower demand from slowing US/Aus economic growth heading into the future. They have also had the ACCC cardboard box scandal and the sacking of the CEO to deal with.......

Any thoughts

TJ


----------



## Investor (4 May 2005)

*Re: AMC Amcor*

At this juncture, it is probably best to wait for the announcement of the new CEO (due by the end of this month) and analyse the calibre and track record of the person. 

Other than that, AMC is a company that has achieved critical mass on a global scale, has an established clientele and it is unlikely to collapse. For the last 18 months, it appears to have been having difficulties managing its rapid growth from acquisitions.

Recent increases in costs are taking a time lag effect to be fully passed onto clients due to signed contracts.


----------



## TjamesX (12 May 2005)

*Re: AMC Amcor*

New CEO announced today.... recruited from within (good), has been working for the company for a number of years (good), seems experienced (good)

I have purchased some shares today at 6.52

medium term hold - looking for the price to recover after recent profit downgrades, and unfortunate circumstances.

In general I think the company is well positioned - and has capable management.

TJ


----------



## Investor (12 May 2005)

*Re: AMC Amcor*

Amcor has appointed Mr Ken MacKenzie as Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, effective from July 1.

Mr MacKenzie, a 41 year old Canadian national, has had 13 years experience with Amcor working in all the major operating divisions including PET, flexibles, tobacco packaging and closures.

He has managed businesses across the Americas, Europe, Australasia and Asia and has lived in North America, Australia and Europe.

He is currently the Group Managing Director of the Amcor Rentsch and closures business, based in Switzerland.

AMC is one of the biggest global packagers, with around 90% of its products being used by the food and beverage and pharmaceutical industries. It generates relatively steady revenues, due to the long-term nature of most of its contracts with clients that include Nestle, Unilever, Cadbury-Schweppes. Customer relationships are usually of a long-term contractual nature (3-5 years).

Consensus P/E FY 05 13.8 and 11.8 FY 06. Not demanding.

Gearing risk is moderate, but partially mitigated by fixed rate loans for a chunk of bank borrowings.


----------



## TjamesX (6 June 2005)

*Re: AMC Amcor*

Sold @ 7.16 today, fundamentals haven't changed but price is up 10% since purchase.

This is a shorter hold than I was anticipating but I believe the stock may have some trouble around 7.20 (amature TA). It has recently been moving quickly in both directions, and the latest recovery has been a bit too quick IMO.

May purchase again if it goes well below 7.00.

Always good to have some cash and book profits in the current environment.

TJ


----------



## TjamesX (30 June 2005)

*Re: AMC Amcor*

If anyone wants to borrow my crystal ball...just ask   

Price struggled at $7.20, burst through on the day XAO peaked, only to come crashing back down again. Today closed at $6.70 (up 5c). Its just the way this stock seems to move. I am considering getting back into this one agian, possibly see over the next few days, AMC is highly influenced by the US market and global sentiment because its a big multinational

TJ


----------



## DTM (30 June 2005)

*Re: AMC Amcor*



			
				TjamesX said:
			
		

> If anyone wants to borrow my crystal ball...just ask
> 
> Price struggled at $7.20, burst through on the day XAO peaked, only to come crashing back down again. Today closed at $6.70 (up 5c). Its just the way this stock seems to move. I am considering getting back into this one agian, possibly see over the next few days, AMC is highly influenced by the US market and global sentiment because its a big multinational
> 
> TJ




Hi Tj

Am watching this one too and expect a bounce before it starts free falling again.  Waiting for the bounce before catching it on its way down.  Thats unless the market drops (which is what I'm expecting) in which case there may be no bounce. 

It might pay to have patience on this one.


----------



## TjamesX (25 August 2005)

*Re: AMC Amcor*

Well DTM,

The price recovered back to 7.20 before tanking again a couple of days ago when they released full year results. Im glad to say I didn't get back in - and I won't be anytime soon. After the report, the fundamentals for AMC look poor to say the least. 

In short, revenue has been rising - but profit margins dropping (rising raw material costs). Asset writedowns galore, and after years of expansion by acquisition - they are now looking to get rid of assets and cut costs   

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/writedowns-shred-amcor-earnings/2005/08/24/1124562918845.html


----------



## imaginator (6 July 2006)

anyone onto AMC now? Whats the outlook? Looks to me like up and away.


----------



## swingstar (6 July 2006)

AMC's one of my favourite channeling stocks. I always have a firm eye on it and am usually trading it, but not at the moment. 

It's a bit too early to say where it's going. When it hit support at 6.40 there was speculation of a takeover. It also jumped again this week after news of overseas investments. 

There's a bit of noise around 6.80 so it's too early to say where it'll go next. I'll be looking to trade either way it goes from where it's currently sitting.


----------



## Realist (22 August 2006)

I just wonder whether BPC are taking over AMC, BPC are in trading halt, I've bought AMC as a punt in case they are...

It's a good company, and was thinking of buying it anyway...


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2006)

AMC would probably be in a halt as well.

This rumour was floating about a few weeks ago. 

Hart is more into food now, but I wouldn't be surprised if he grabs this old dog.


----------



## CanOz (22 August 2006)

Amcor and corregated in general is a miserable business to be in. The margins are thin, raw material is expensive, your customers are screwing you down because thier customers are screwing them down. Aluminum cans are the same. CCH is in the same boat too. All of this and lots of industrial action as well. 

I would never own a packaging company's stock.


----------



## Realist (22 August 2006)

Analysts say Amcor would interest Burns Philp because there are affinities with timber group Carter Holt Harvey, which Mr Hart controls after a $3 billion takeover.

Investment bankers are advising Amcor on a restructuring and on possible asset sales. Attention has focused on Amcor's fibre packaging business.

Analysts told the SMH that if Amcor does not sell the business to Mr Hart, he may make a hostile takeover bid and break the company up.

Amcor's shares, however, did not jump yesterday, ending 6c higher at $6.39.


----------



## CanOz (22 August 2006)

Realist, what do you think of Amcor's SP in terms of fair value? I.e. what do you think a fair price for the company is?

Also, are there any ACCC concerns there?


----------



## robert toms (22 August 2006)

Trivia...did you know that in Dec 1995 Amcor's price was $9.59.


----------



## Realist (22 August 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Realist, what do you think of Amcor's SP in terms of fair value? I.e. what do you think a fair price for the company is?




It is fairly valued. 

Goes ex-dividend in a few days.

Maybe worth a punt buying today and holding for a week or 3 to see if BPC make an offer, and to get the dividend?

It's up a bit already from where I bought it a few hours ago.


----------



## CanOz (22 August 2006)

BPC gapped up straight away when the trading resumed. Would you believe i've had two small positions in BPC over the last two months. I just sold one out last week.


----------



## Realist (22 August 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> BPC gapped up straight away when the trading resumed. Would you believe i've had two small positions in BPC over the last two months. I just sold one out last week.




Bugger.

I'm guessing BPC will go up to between $1.09 and $1.13 tomorrow.

I believe RANK are wanting to buy the shares at $1.10.

So no great loss.

MRE was a bigger loss for you.     

Well you win, some and you lose some.  No use crying over spilt milk.


----------



## swingstar (23 August 2006)

robert toms said:
			
		

> Trivia...did you know that in Dec 1995 Amcor's price was $9.59.




Not on my data... the highest it's been is $9.20 in 02. In Dec 95 its high was $7.78.


----------



## robert toms (23 August 2006)

I copied that price from an old newspaper that I had in my shed....amongst other prices anz 6.26 cml 4.26 qbe 6.19 wow 3.20 flt 1.65 erg 1.58 etc.Without tracing my records I believe that I paid well over eight dollars for AMC in 1997 and sold out at a loss about two years ago...when I go thru records will make a point of looking it up and verifying...if only to myself


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

I think yesterday was a great day to buy,  BPC takeover rumours, an upcoming dividend and now this.

AMC should be on the up...    



> Amcor to change fibre packaging business
> August 23, 2006 - 9:34AM
> 
> Amcor Ltd says it will restructure its Australasian fibre packaging business as it targets annual cost savings of $60 to $80 million.
> ...


----------



## Julia (23 August 2006)

This lacklustre company sat in my portfolio from October 2004 (bought at 7.18) until I sold it in disgust December 2005 at 7.10.

I've taken no interest in it since until I noticed this thread and was curious enough to see what the SP is now - last sale yesterday $6.50!

Julia


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> This lacklustre company sat in my portfolio from October 2004 (bought at 7.18) until I sold it in disgust December 2005 at 7.10.
> 
> I've taken no interest in it since until I noticed this thread and was curious enough to see what the SP is now - last sale yesterday $6.50!
> 
> Julia





Do you think that makes it a bad buy now?  

In my mind that makes it an even better buy now!!

Out of interest, what else have you sold in the past year Julia?


----------



## Realist (20 September 2006)

AMC is now $7.02 and has just gone ex dividend at 17c.

take over rumours, or just "investors" getting into a fairly cheap stock? 

Or is it the buy back?

Either way it is doing well.


----------



## Realist (20 September 2006)

It is $7.12 now, there is something going on alright!!


----------



## Sean K (20 September 2006)

1523 [Dow Jones] Amcor (AMC.AU) up 1.2% at A$7.03, hits 4-month high of $7.07 after crude hit 6-month low of US$61.60 overnight. Dealers alert for any takeover rumors, but none surfacing today. Daily close above A$7.03 would be quite bullish technically, but crude has major chart support at US$60.00. If it bounces, Amcor could fall again. Minor support A$6.82. Resistance A$7.10. (DWR)


----------



## swingstar (20 September 2006)

I'm bearish on AMC. I traded it down recently and I think we're in for another fall down to $6.40. It tends to be fairly contrarian though. I think over the next few days we'll know more about where it's going.


----------



## Sean K (20 September 2006)

swingstar said:
			
		

> I think over the next few days we'll know more about where it's going.




he, he. Is that the same as 'we'll know where we're going when we get there.' LOL.


----------



## swingstar (20 September 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> he, he. Is that the same as 'we'll know where we're going when we get there.' LOL.




lol, well it's right smack bang on a very important price for resistance and support, $7.00. It has made some very nice swings from here in the past.


----------



## Sean K (20 September 2006)

swingstar said:
			
		

> lol, well it's right smack bang on a very important price for resistance and support, $7.00. It has made some very nice swings from here in the past.




LOL, I think I know what you meant Star. You are right, this is an important price point for AMC.


----------



## Realist (21 September 2006)

Just as I thought!    

Amcor rides wave of takeover talk
September 21, 2006


AMCOR is the latest local company to feel the heat from circling private equity groups.

This time the mounting speculation has a trail leading back to the middle of the year and New Zealand's richest man, Graeme Hart.

Shares in the packaging company rose another 11c yesterday to $7.06, and moved closer to the $7.60 market sources said Mr Hart was willing to offer.

The company's shares have risen nearly 15 per cent in the past month as the takeover rumours have swirled around the stockmarket.

Amcor's chairman, Chris Roberts, is understood to have been sounded out on a possible bid for the company.

Mr Roberts did not return the Herald's call yesterday.

Amcor's investor relations head, John Murray, was in Sydney yesterday holding one-on-one meetings with fund managers.

The Herald understands one of the key topics of discussion with investors was the falling oil price and the positive impact it appeared to be having on the Amcor share price.

As for Mr Hart, he is cashed up after stunning the market with moves to privatise Burns Philp and transform himself into his own private equity player.

Last year his Rank Group spent $3 billion buying the trans-Tasman forestry, packing and building materials group Carter Holt Harvey. It has since sold most of the company's forestry assets, leaving the company with room for more acquisitions.

In a rare interview a month ago with The Australian Financial Review, the secretive Mr Hart said he considered Australia an expensive market. He said opportunities were more likely to be offshore than domestic.

Mr Hart did not return the Herald's call last night.

Amcor was sold off in July for failing to impress stockbroking analysts and fund managers, after it reported a full-year profit of $409.5 million, which was below expectations.

At the time it blamed the profit disappointment on rising input costs. A rising oil price affects the company in two ways: firstly it drives up the cost of its plastic products, secondly it increases the cost of running its factories.

Amcor's chief executive, Ken MacKenzie, is speaking at JP Morgan's investor conference in Edinburgh late next week, where he is expected to discuss the company's full-year result.

Amcor is now more than 40 per cent owned by offshore investors. Local fund managers are underweight Amcor.

Amcor is one of a long list of companies on the radar of private equity groups as falling share prices, combined with the local market having a host of fundamentally healthy companies, make the time ripe for private equity groups to move.

Last month a consortium of private equity players had their offer for Coles Myer rejected.

One group involved in that deal - Kohlberg Kravis Roberts - has bought the Cleanaway waste management business from Brambles, while companies including furniture retailer Super A-mart, clothing groups Colorado and Witchery and healthcare group DCA have been stalked by private equity groups.


----------



## Realist (21 September 2006)

$7.34 now - add in the 17c dividend from last week, this is storming along...

Just under $7.60 is where it will stop apparently...


----------



## Realist (27 September 2006)

$7.48 now - hmm takeover imminent.

And it has just paid out 17c dividends.   

$7.60 is where it'll stop...


----------



## swingstar (9 October 2006)

Start of a new downtrend? I'm not confident enough to short it yet with talks of a takeover. Still it was the same situation back in July, and it fell 11% in August.


----------



## Realist (9 October 2006)

Jees I would not contemplate shorting it at the moment.


----------



## CanOz (9 October 2006)

Realist, going by the info i have from my broker its over priced, 16.4 PER in a sector thats 12.8. Its not high on the brokers recommendations either. 

A bit surprised at you on this one. Once i saw your comments i checked those things first expecting them to be cheaper than thier sector or something. 

From a technical point they've just had a dead cross on the MACD. This usually is confirmation of a trend, but not always.

Wasn't there speculation of a takeover recently. Maybe that overpriced them slightly.


----------



## swingstar (9 October 2006)

Here's a chart showing the days where there was a lot of takeover speculation... so I wouldn't rule it out falling again. It's found a ceiling on a strong area of resistance in the last week or so, but I'm not convinced that there won't be some more upside action if it does fall again.


----------



## Realist (12 October 2006)

I'm out at 7.57.

I want the money, it is now not undervalued, and I made 21% including dividends in about 3 or 4 months.

It may go up a little more, may get taken over, but it could drop, I am out!


----------



## CanOz (12 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> I'm out at 7.57.
> 
> I want the money, it is now not undervalued, and I made 21% including dividends in about 3 or 4 months.
> 
> It may go up a little more, may get taken over, but it could drop, I am out!




Nice trade Realist, nothing wrong with taking profits is there?


----------



## Realist (12 October 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Nice trade Realist, nothing wrong with taking profits is there?





Not in this case anyway, Amcor is not a great buy atm, hasn't great potential to rise much more, could drop, its ages till they pay dividends and it aint gonna double in the next 7 years I am guessing.

The one and only thing I may miss is a takeover bid - but I can't hold just for that. Theres' money to be made elsewhere.


----------



## Broadside (12 October 2006)

I heard a bid was in the works but you can't go broke taking a profit

the way it bounced back the last couple of days suggests to me something is going on


----------



## swingstar (12 October 2006)

Good time to sell by my analysis. Coming up to the top of the channel it's been trading in for the last few years and my RSI is showing bearish divergence (pretty much the only indicator I use). Somewhat of a channel has formed, so I'm thinking a shorting opportunity with a rebound off the larger channel ceiling and a breach of the smaller channel floor.


----------



## Realist (13 October 2006)

It is down to $7.46 now, on what is a very bullish day for the ASX.

I think I timed it perfectly!


----------



## swingstar (13 October 2006)

Touched right on the bottom of that trend earlier.


----------



## swingstar (13 October 2006)

Final blowoff? 

I've highlighted all the divergence I could find... has been pretty consistent around reversals when there's been a breach of trend.


----------



## imaginator (16 October 2006)

is it just me or is anyone else short selling AMC at moment?

Im also shorting ALL, ANZ.


----------



## swingstar (16 October 2006)

I would like to see a clear close below the trend before I think of shorting AMC.


----------



## Broadside (16 October 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> is it just me or is anyone else short selling AMC at moment?
> 
> Im also shorting ALL, ANZ.




you are playing with fire shorting a stock that may be in play


----------



## imaginator (18 October 2006)

Swingstar,
what is the clear close price be in your analysis? I always think if AMC is above 7.4 it is quite safe to short. Its been struggling around 7.3 -7.45 for some time now...


----------



## swingstar (18 October 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> Swingstar,
> what is the clear close price be in your analysis? I always think if AMC is above 7.4 it is quite safe to short. Its been struggling around 7.3 -7.45 for some time now...




Remember to do your own research, but I won't think of shorting AMC until I can see a decent trend forming. This may not be until it's below $7.20. Right now it's indicating _to me_ a possible reversal, but it hasn't reversed yet, and may not for all I know.


----------



## Realist (20 October 2006)

swingstar said:
			
		

> Remember to do your own research, but I won't think of shorting AMC until I can see a decent trend forming. This may not be until it's below $7.20. Right now it's indicating _to me_ a possible reversal, but it hasn't reversed yet, and may not for all I know.




Well $7.21 now, man I timed my sell perfectly - very happy!   

The main reason as I see it is BPC were rumoured to be wanting to takeover AMC, but BPC have since bought a Canadian paper company. so a takeover ain gonna happen, and the premium that was there is now going.

So AMC will drift down to the norm of a PE around 15 - so they may lose another 5% or so and then stay there for a while.

I'd value AMC at about $6.80 based on current earnings and the fact they are not expecting any growth!


----------



## swingstar (20 October 2006)

It's definitely high on my watchlist.


----------



## imaginator (24 October 2006)

swingstar have u started shorting this?


----------



## swingstar (25 October 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> swingstar have u started shorting this?




I am short. 

Start of a new channel?


----------



## imaginator (25 October 2006)

ive been shorting it too, since 7.2. U were right, at 7.2, the downtrend became very stable. 1 week before that I entered at 7.45, 7.35, but it was erratic, down, then up, then down...

U really taught me a valuable lesson, to wait for confirmation of a trend!
thanks!


----------



## swingstar (25 October 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> ive been shorting it too, since 7.2. U were right, at 7.2, the downtrend became very stable. 1 week before that I entered at 7.45, 7.35, but it was erratic, down, then up, then down...
> 
> U really taught me a valuable lesson, to wait for confirmation of a trend!
> thanks!




It's definitely a good idea for reversals, but for already established trends I prefer to buy in the dips. 

Hopefully we'll see Amcor right back down to the $6.40 area, but I expect a few counter trends on the way, especially around $6.80-7.00.


----------



## Realist (25 October 2006)

I would not short AMC. 

It is farily valued as is, the downtrend was merely cause the takeover rumours subsided.  $7.00 is a fair valuation considering it is a solid company that makes profits, pays good dividends and has a lowish PER - it in my opinion can not drop much further, and may in all possibility go back to $7.50 soon.

The most you could make in my opinion is a drop from $7.00 to about $6.40.  Not worth it considering it may rise 60c just as easily.


----------



## imaginator (25 October 2006)

argh they issued a report and the price all over the place now


----------



## swingstar (25 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> I would not short AMC.
> 
> It is farily valued as is, the downtrend was merely cause the takeover rumours subsided.  $7.00 is a fair valuation considering it is a solid company that makes profits, pays good dividends and has a lowish PER - it in my opinion can not drop much further, and may in all possibility go back to $7.50 soon.
> 
> The most you could make in my opinion is a drop from $7.00 to about $6.40.  Not worth it considering it may rise 60c just as easily.




A fall from 7.25ish (where I got in) to $6.40 is a 11% drop. Long ATM put options, that's about a 800% return on (my) risk, which is very good for a trade that I feel comfortable with.


----------



## imaginator (25 October 2006)

should have shorted somemore when it jumped to 7.15 this morning!
now 6.96

but anyway, "come on down amc!"


----------



## swingstar (25 October 2006)

Tomorrow will be interesting... I wonder whether the high today is all the resistance this downtrend has in it. If so look out below. 

I read the announcement... sounded quite negative in the short-term.


----------



## imaginator (25 October 2006)

*Amcor considers further plant closures*

Wednesday October 25, 2006, 4:30 pm



_Global packager Amcor Ltd is considering further asset sales and plant closures over the next 12 months as it battles rising input costs and higher energy prices.

Chief executive Ken MacKenzie said it would be some time before a recent decline in fuel prices is reflected in the raw material prices and energy costs the company incurs.

Amcor has a three year plan to cut costs and has so far this year closed three plants in Australia.

Mr MacKenzie, speaking after the company's annual general meeting, said Amcor still had to identify further plants for closure and repeated the group's plan to divest between $500 million to $1 billion of assets.

"We are one year into it and we have divested $420 million of assets ... so we have between $80 million and $580 million to go," he said.

Mr MacKenzie said it was a good time to be a seller of assets.

"There are still the normal structural buyers in the industry and there is now the private equity community also looking, so there is big pool of people who can compete for assets you are selling," he said.

Mr MacKenzie told shareholders the current market environment for packaging included short term negatives that will impact Amcor's earnings in the first half.

But he said Amcor was confident of the upside potential of the business over the medium term.

"Despite the current environment, which has some short term negative issues impacting earnings particularly in this first half, we are confident in the upside potential in the business over the medium term and our ability to grow earnings and improve shareholder value," he said.

But Mr MacKenzie shied away from giving first half profit guidance, citing volatility in input and energy costs.

"We're still not giving any guidance because it's still quite volatile out there in terms of energy costs and raw material costs," he told journalists after the meeting.

"They are the factors outside our control. What we did say today clearly was that we are broadly in line where we said we would be in August at the full year result.

"Once some of the volatility in terms of energy markets and raw material costs settle down, we will be in a better position to (give guidance) - at this point we not giving any forecasts."

He said trading in the first quarter was consistent with expectations.

"Across each of the business units, trading for the first quarter has been broadly consistent with the comments made at the full year results announcement in August," he said.

He added that Amcor Australasia's earnings were adversely impacted in the second half of last year and that trend was continuing into this year.

"Volumes in the corrugated business continued to be lower than the same period last year and it was likely to continue lag for the balance of the year," Mr MacKenzie said.

Amcor made a first half of $201.9 million in 2005/06, which was down 12 per cent from the prior year.

Amcor shares fell 10 cents to $6.90 on Wednesday._

A good time to sell assets, a good time to short sell too!
AMC power!


----------



## imaginator (1 November 2006)

Its seems to be hovering around 6.94 - 7.03 now, is the downtrend over??


----------



## Realist (1 November 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> Its seems to be hovering around 6.94 - 7.03 now, is the downtrend over??




Yes. I think so.


----------



## swingstar (1 November 2006)

Too early to say IMO. May be just a counter-trend. The rest of the week will give a clearer picture.


----------



## imaginator (1 November 2006)

Hi Swingstar,
hows the RSI divergence looking?


----------



## swingstar (1 November 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> Hi Swingstar,
> hows the RSI divergence looking?




RSI did its job a few weeks back (for me)--signifying a possible reversal which happened. Now it's not displaying anything useful or what can't be seen in price. 

A new trend has now formed. There has only been two up days in two weeks, both of which were on low volume, so there's not much support. As it stands then, I think we're in a counter-trend, but we won't know for a few more days yet. 

I'm still short, but if it gets above $7.15 then I'll probably scrap it.


----------



## imaginator (1 November 2006)

swingstar my friend,

Im still shorting it too, but getting sweaty today.
Should have bought back yesterday when it touched low 6.90
 

taught me a lesson i never learned, put stop loss and never let a profit turn into a loss. 

But for AMC, im very wary of stop losses, as it could get triggered very easily by temporary fluctuation, the price tend to jump here and there quite a bit. 

Fingers crossed for tomorrow!


----------



## swingstar (1 November 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> swingstar my friend,
> 
> Im still shorting it too, but getting sweaty today.
> Should have bought back yesterday when it touched low 6.90
> ...




I'm not worried about AMC right now--almost all trends counter-trend, and they're great opportunities to add to a position. I'm actually hoping tomorrow is an up day, so I have some idea of what AMC is doing and if it's going to trade down in a channel. Volume did pick up today which is a bit of a concern. 

BTW, when I've been worried about a trade, it's usually been because I'm risking too much and/or haven't planned it.


----------



## imaginator (2 November 2006)

i'm outta short amc for now, and getting into long. looks strong eventho the All Ords dropped 45 points, it didnt budge and instead charged ahead when All Ords starts to recover.


----------



## swingstar (2 November 2006)

Tomorrow will be a key day for my trade. Conditions will likely be met whether to stay in or out, but right now I think it's too early to say where it's going.


----------



## imaginator (2 November 2006)

Swingstar, 
I agree, it could be just another resistance against the trend, because in the morning the volume was quite low.

I'm also playing AWC at the moment, it seems very strong today. Went from 6.22 to 6.7! But tomorrow for AWC I will also see if it is a real uptrend.

Do u put a stop loss usually? How do u deal with stop loss for something like AMC, where the price shifts up and down quite a bit during the day? Today I placed a long at 7.10, and when it went up to 7.14, I put a stop loss at 7.09. Later my stop loss was triggered as it came down to 7.09, but that was the lowest it went and went up to 7.12-7.13 again.
I hate it when this happens, stop loss getting sweeped by the edge of the fluctuation.

Same goes with AWC, I bought in the morning at 6.30. It went up to 6.45, so I was happy and put a stop loss at 6.39. Bloddyheck it came down to 6.39 and swept it, and then shot up to 6.5, and then later to the range of 6.60+.


----------



## swingstar (2 November 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> Do u put a stop loss usually? How do u deal with stop loss for something like AMC, where the price shifts up and down quite a bit during the day? Today I placed a long at 7.10, and when it went up to 7.14, I put a stop loss at 7.09. Later my stop loss was triggered as it came down to 7.09, but that was the lowest it went and went up to 7.12-7.13 again.
> I hate it when this happens, stop loss getting sweeped by the edge of the fluctuation.




I trade options mostly, so use mental stops. I also only get hourly updates by choice, which helps in ignoring intraday volatility.


----------



## imaginator (3 November 2006)

swingstar,
it just went to 7.17, is it time we revert our position to uptrend?

geez i dont know when is the Aust and US market is gonna come down. USA has been having a lower close for 5 days, but just by a few points.


----------



## swingstar (3 November 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> swingstar,
> it just went to 7.17, is it time we revert our position to uptrend?




There's nothing there to support a long trade for me, but I'll be waiting until today's close on whether to exit or not. I'm still bearish, but not at the cost of risking anything now.


----------



## Dutchy3 (23 February 2007)

For those that SMSF ths one needs dusting off.

The stuffing around of the last few years is drawing to a close 

Within a short (weeks) period of time this one will move through 7.6 - 7.70 and beyond ...


----------



## Dutchy3 (22 March 2007)

A month down the track and todays action is encouraging ... not the end of the week albeit .... still steady and accumulation from this point should now occur


----------



## imaginator (1 August 2007)

whats happening to AMC? Its been doing nothing but down down down. And now its broken the support of around 6.9, today only 6.75. Fed up with this bugger.

Can anyone tell anything from the company or the chart?


----------



## Dowdy (6 February 2009)

Anyone see the charts? Going down alot

Does anyone know why this stock has been hammered in the last couple days?


----------



## rcm617 (6 February 2009)

Dowdy said:


> Anyone see the charts? Going down alot
> 
> Does anyone know why this stock has been hammered in the last couple days?




Talk around they might be buying part of Rio's aluminium packaging buisness. Valuation apparently around the $6 billion mark for the whole lot so might mean a bit of money having to be raised.


----------



## dan-o (11 August 2009)

strong rumours of a raising in the next couple weeks for this one, to buy rio's alcan assets... what do people think of this one??


----------



## skyQuake (11 August 2009)

dan-o said:


> strong rumours of a raising in the next couple weeks for this one, to buy rio's alcan assets... what do people think of this one??




Gonna be a rights issue this one. Sitting on some resistance at the 6.20ish area, could get a bit cheaper before the raising.


----------



## dan-o (17 August 2009)

a rumoured 4 for 9 rights issue at about $4.30, sounds good to me. over a $1 discount on current price. I only hope we can apply for additional shares...


----------



## dan-o (18 August 2009)

Anyone a holder and planning to take up their entitlement? Will you be applying for more shares on top of the entitlement??


----------



## skyQuake (18 August 2009)

Holding 1 share and would like to apply for lots and lots 
Hopefully some people won't take up their entitlements


----------



## Kuri (19 August 2009)

Does anybody know if there is still time to get on the register to participate in the SPP? There does not seem to be a formal announcement on ASX on this issue yet.


----------



## dan-o (20 August 2009)

Kuri, you need to be on the register by tonight, 20th August, which means that you needed to buy last friday. unfortunately it's too late  
it doesnt sound like many people hold AMC judging by the lack of response on this forum. This offer is a great way to make money i reckon... buy as many as possible, sell some to lock in profits...


----------



## mybling (30 August 2009)

I'm a newbie and I hold a small parcel of AMC shares. I have received the SPP but it states non-renounceable shares?? 
Does that mean I cannot sell my shares on the ASX when the SPP shares go live?


----------



## dan-o (31 August 2009)

it means you cannot sell the rights to buy the shares at $4.30 (as i understand it) you can buy the shares and then sell them once you get them if you desire...
most shares seem to be non-renouncable from what ive noticed. rio is the only exception i can think of where shareholders were able to sell the rights...


----------



## dan-o (15 September 2009)

Not much action on AMC. Anyone apply for extra shares? Any inkling of what ratio of the extras might be granted??


----------



## dan-o (16 September 2009)

If anyone is interested, the deal is that you will get 15 times your original allocation if you applied for extra shares.
So if you were entitled to 100 and applied for 2000, you'll get 1500. If you only had 1 share via IB then i imagine you'll get 15 shares, so not really worth while...

Probably a pretty fair way to allocate extra shares, based on original entitlement...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 September 2013)

Potential short.  See chart.


----------



## piggybank (20 August 2014)

The last time the price broke down through the 250 day EMA was a couple of years ago. It looks like it as just dipped its toe(s) in the hot water again and possibly making a run up again...





It is up nearly 10% already this week and today's action saw it break into BLUE SKY. The reason for the jump is from yesterdays release to the market, that can be read by clicking on the link below:-

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AMC&E=ASX&N=410081


----------



## So_Cynical (2 March 2017)

Im always impressed how the trends just seem to line up, the 1 year chart shows multiplue bottoms at $14, the 5 year chart a steady even predictable up trend.


----------



## Triathlete (16 September 2017)

Amcor might be getting close to short???
Below is my current analysis on the monthly chart.
This is for educational purpose only and do not hold any position yet....
Anyone following the stock??

Strategic comment from Lincoln Indicators...
AMC exhibits unacceptable levels of financial risk due to a below benchmark Financial Health score. Investors need to be aware such companies pose risks and warrant a speculative investment only. Any prospective investment should be managed with tight stop losses implemented.


----------



## Triathlete (4 February 2018)

Thought I might take another look at AMC since it has broken through the monthly trendline now....Using EW we could be on a move lower with either a wave 4 or a wave A.
This also lines up with a head and shoulders weekly pattern as well on the second chart...
Will be looking for a move down to $12.28 at this stage...

*Strategic comment from Lincoln stock doctor:*

AMC exhibits unacceptable levels of financial risk due to a below benchmark Financial Health score. Investors need to be aware such companies pose risks and warrant a speculative investment only. Any prospective investment should be managed with tight stop losses implemented.

Consensus price target $16.08


----------



## peter2 (25 June 2018)

AMC presents an attractive RR opportunity. It's not a stock that I trade because I consider it a value rather than a growth company. Price tends to go up and down with the economic outlook. 

_Monthly:_ Trend UP.  Price has been in a long abc corrective pattern after the impulsive move up early 2016. It looks like the corrective move is complete which would imply that the next move will be an impulsive higher. 
_Weekly:_ Trend DOWN. Reversal setup (123L) with a higher low.
_Daily:_ Price has gone higher than the break-out line (14.15), but it may not be too late. Price may trade at 14.15 again soon.  

The initial target is the old highs at 16.50 providing a reasonable RR. Price is unlikely to spear straight to our target. It may take a year, because value stocks move slow and steady.


----------



## Porper (25 June 2018)

peter2 said:


> AMC presents an attractive RR opportunity. It's not a stock that I trade because I consider it a value rather than a growth company. Price tends to go up and down with the economic outlook.
> 
> _Monthly:_ Trend UP.  Price has been in a long abc corrective pattern after the impulsive move up early 2016. It looks like the corrective move is complete which would imply that the next move will be an impulsive higher.
> _Weekly:_ Trend DOWN. Reversal setup (123L) with a higher low.
> ...




Agree in that we can't get too carried away until all-time highs are breached. Price has been consolidating since early 2015 which is great if the next break is higher.

H&S pattern triggered advocating higher prices...up to short-term target. Then on to test those all-time highs.

I hold following the H&S pattern triggering.
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 .


----------



## kid hustlr (6 July 2018)

peter2 said:


> AMC presents an attractive RR opportunity. It's not a stock that I trade because I consider it a value rather than a growth company. Price tends to go up and down with the economic outlook.
> 
> _Monthly:_ Trend UP.  Price has been in a long abc corrective pattern after the impulsive move up early 2016. It looks like the corrective move is complete which would imply that the next move will be an impulsive higher.
> _Weekly:_ Trend DOWN. Reversal setup (123L) with a higher low.
> ...




I've gone for the 'P2 style' trade here and bought a half parcel on open. The thinking here is:
- Price has retraced to prior support, uptrend still ok at this point.
- TMF is steadily rising
- Longer term trend is up 

This is a little different for me as I would usually buy the break (either 14.15 or now 14.60). Plan is to add the other half above 14.60 if it trades there as per my usual reversal/basing break out type trade.


----------



## tech/a (6 July 2018)

I like Porpers head and shoulders target for a trade.
There are strong head winds at $15-16 From that
Weekly V Control bar.


----------



## barney (6 July 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> The thinking here is:
> - Price has retraced to prior support, uptrend still ok at this point.
> - TMF is steadily rising
> - Longer term trend is up .




Hi Kid … Looks like a positive trade to me for what its worth (I trade Specs so my opinion should be taken with that (and salt) in mind lol)  ….. 

Curious what your conceptual stop out price might be if things turn nasty? I'm thinking $13.59 would be my "I'm finished" price but even $13.70 would be asking questions??  How are you seeing it?

PS Did you end up trading NST a few months back when you correctly assessed it was value relative to the POG ??


----------



## kid hustlr (7 July 2018)

B,

Initially 13.50 below the congestion. I’ll tickle it up a bit now.

There’s been a handful of good stocks that have performed really well (sbm/evn/nst/sar) and whilst I had a bias towards them I’ve not much to show for it. Caught some of sbm on the way up, recently scratched an evn trade and rsg got me a few months back on a poor report.

I find mining stocks tricky in general for my style, I think a medium term trader would have done really well out of the coal/gold stocks over the last 9 months or so


----------



## kid hustlr (7 August 2018)

This was almost a good a trade!

Looks to be some type of M&A action which has killed the SP today.


----------



## Triathlete (20 October 2018)

Triathlete said:


> Thought I might take another look at AMC since it has broken through the monthly trendline now....Using EW we could be on a move lower with either a wave 4 or a wave A.
> This also lines up with a head and shoulders weekly pattern as well on the second chart...
> Will be looking for a move down to $12.28 at this stage...
> 
> ...




I always like to go back and look over previous predictions as is the case with Amcor which on Feb 4 2018 I had and we can now see if it has played out as the analysis had been worked out back then...and 8 months later we are all good this time around always good for the confidence.The problem I find though that they some time take a while or longer than you anticipate,this is usually not a problem for me when I place a trade on the long side but when playing the short side I do sometimes get frustrated waiting for things to happen need to work on that Psycology.


----------



## rnr (9 June 2019)

Since the 7th August 2018 when the directors of Amcor Limited (Amcor) and Bemis Company, Inc. (Bemis) announced a definitive agreement under which Amcor will acquire Bemis in an all-stock combination by way of a Scheme of Arrangement the share price has dropped to a low of $12.665 in late October 2018 to a recent high of $16.67 on May 22nd. Price closed at $16.18 on Friday which is $0.70 below the ATH. Will the ATH be taken out shortly or will it act as resistance for a while to come?


----------



## rnr (2 August 2020)

Will the unfilled gap, immediately below the last bar, reverse the downward price action by acting as support for AMC?
[I do not hold.]


----------

