# *Good News Only Thread - Stocks & Shares*



## noirua (2 September 2007)

In the Spring we can expect an awesome recovery. This article from the antipodes is bullish enough for those who are feeling sad:http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/artic...c=x8sc82&cp_v=3311862&cp_id=268&cp_sub_id=176


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## justjohn (2 September 2007)

It's all good news at present $ wise im back to were it all started with the correction, bought in cheap with MBL, ZFX, BNB, PPT, BPT +others, everything has gone ex div over the last 2-3 weeks so I have surplus cash. My U16s union team won there final 18-17 yesterday so were in the GF, the DRAGONS avoided the wooden spoon and its also fathers day. It doesn't get any sweeter:dance::bananasmi:band:alcohol:


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## explod (2 September 2007)

Ken Fisher, what a sham.   Plenty of missguided reasoning but not one supported or substantiated argument in the article.

The only slight good point was to aver towards oil stocks.

One of the intersting aspects of those picking on the so called doomsayers is that most of the doomsayers provide substantiated argument.  And if you can read a bit deeper the hypothesis provides evidence on which to actually benefit from the coming bad times.   One to short the markets, 2. as fisher says get into oil, 3 good food companies, 4 precious metals to hedge against the collapse of currencies and so on.

Too many think the world must be on a plate.   Markets have allways at times and in cycles gone up strongly and they have allways gone down strongly and saying that there is tangible evidence that they may be going down strongly now is not being a doomsayer,  its being prepared, you could call it an optimistic opportunity.

An awesome recovery, possible but I cant' buy it


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## noirua (10 September 2007)

DON'T THOU THEE WORRY!  CNBC, through an analyst, feel that present falls, on US jobs data, are very much overdone.


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## noirua (12 September 2007)

Interest rates in the US are set to fall. Markets should recover momentum in most sectors as the bull chases the bear.


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## So_Cynical (12 September 2007)

For 3 days in a row, gold is above 700 USD.


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## explod (12 September 2007)

So_Cynical said:


> For 3 days in a row, gold is above 700 USD.




Yep, and the US dollar continues to weaken as the rest of the world deserts the sinking ship which will send gold even higher.   So the good news should continue Cynical


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## noirua (15 September 2007)

Mining and oil stocks were given further good news this week as commodity prices rose. 
One of the strongest sectors of late is thermal coal with spot prices rising to US$70 per tonne against prices agreed earlier in the year between US$52 - US$54 per tonnne.


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## moneymajix (30 September 2007)

noirua     

You start some awesome threads, imo.


And I was thinking someone's good news could someone elses "bad" news.


:bounce:


(PS: I was thinking, a THANK YOU! smilie would be really great)

:thankyou:


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## noirua (30 October 2007)

Just what the doctor ordered for the United States of America. A weaker and weaker US Dollar will help on the imports front and encourage cheaper exports to Europe and beyond.
All this should push the DOW 30 to higher and higher levels. 
The current account deficite should improve rapidly and increase visitors to American shores.

So, with interest rates falling, America should push on far more strongly than forecast.


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## nioka (30 October 2007)

The Extrata bid for Jubilee should be good news for some of the smaller nickel miners. Anyone receiving cash for their Jubilee shares now has made a very nice profit. Their association with nickel has been an experience they would like to repeat. What better way is there than to reinvest in the likes of AGM,  SMY, THX, just to name a couple. I think it will be especially helpful to AGM.


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## noirua (7 November 2007)

George Soros, the American Billionaire, believes that China will continue to boom for the next ten years. I can't say anymore about what he said because this is the Good News Only Thread.


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## Uncle Festivus (7 November 2007)

noirua said:


> George Soros, the American Billionaire, believes that China will continue to boom for the next ten years. I can't say anymore about what he said because this is the Good News Only Thread.




Noirua, maybe you can put it in the doom & gloom thread (Imminent & severe correction) or start your own Bad News Only thread .

Or post a link to it?


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## noirua (8 November 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Noirua, maybe you can put it in the doom & gloom thread (Imminent & severe correction) or start your own Bad News Only thread .
> 
> Or post a link to it?




Hi Uncle festivus, Sometimes bad news can be good news, if it is not as bad as they thought it would be or they hold back some of the bad news and hope no one noticed.

Morgan Stanley made a US$3.75 billion writedown and the stock rose nearly 5% in after hours trading. So good news, and markets will improve in the U.S. when they reopen, until ...


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## noirua (8 November 2007)

A weaker and weaker Dollar is just what the doctor ordered to turn the U.S. economies trading deficit round.  Not so good news for consumers of oil related goods or inflation pressure - I doubt that matters much in the short term.


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## noirua (11 November 2007)

Investments may be better in America afterall, as Ben Bernanke looks forward to a recovery in the second half of 2008.

Book your flights now and visit the States whilst the currency advantages Australia.


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## noirua (10 December 2007)

Major miners rose in London on Friday with Xstrata up 8%.


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## noirua (16 December 2007)

Take no notice of the bad news bears as it's good news all the way. Coal is the big news plus out of the improved and extended ports all round Australia. This factor will help Australia in its continued growth for the next 40 years.


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## numbercruncher (17 December 2007)

Hello

Any good news today ?


Thankyou


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## coolcricket (18 December 2007)

Umm...... I think AGL Energy was up.


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## noirua (24 December 2007)

A good finish on Friday in the States with miners and oilers to the fore, no worries for 2008


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## The Mint Man (24 December 2007)

Yes a good day MQG has come back for me so I'm happy about that, however my stand out performance was OSH up 6% today  See my posts in the OSH thread where I have provided graphs on OSH, WPL and STO comparing them to show how well OSH has been coming back lately.

Cheers


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## noirua (27 December 2007)

Bad news for property prices = good news for stocks and shares.


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## noirua (29 December 2007)

Good news for rising soft commodity prices during 2008.


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## noirua (31 December 2007)

Always good news are stocks and shares. If they're not going up, then short'm.


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## noirua (5 January 2008)

Look thee to coal during 2008 as China continues to open thermal coal Power Stations at the rate of 2-a-week. Aussie ports will be at breaking point to deliver coal through out the year. 
Benchmark thermal is set to hit US$100 per tonne.


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## noirua (5 January 2008)

Interest rates are high in Australia and that goes for those borrowing and investing. Investors will have great opportunities to make good returns on fixed interest securities - lock thou self in.


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## Bill M (6 January 2008)

noirua said:


> Interest rates are high in Australia and that goes for those borrowing and investing. Investors will have great opportunities to make good returns on fixed interest securities - lock thou self in.




Totally agree with you there. The 2 latest offerings BOQPC and GMPPA are both paying 2% above the 90 Bank Bill, that's a cool 9% income.


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## Sean K (6 January 2008)

Sustainable energy and water related stocks are sure to do OK in the coming months and years. There should be heavy backing by government in these fields (to catch votes) so funding for R&D will be flowing. While I think humans should pay for their excesses, selfishness, and shortsightedness, the fact that companies are pushing forward in developing clean energy etc is very good darts.


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## rhen (7 January 2008)

_Word is that President Bush may propose new measures to boost the economy by the time he gives his State of the Union address later this month... _
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/04/new...ulus_options/index.htm?postversion=2008010416

regards
rhen


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## Knobby22 (7 January 2008)

rhen said:


> _Word is that President Bush may propose new measures to boost the economy by the time he gives his State of the Union address later this month... _
> http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/04/new...ulus_options/index.htm?postversion=2008010416
> 
> regards
> rhen




No answers from Bush. How are tax cuts going to help? And limiting loan size is very socialist of him and in any case it is too late, the horse has bolted. 

The good news is that his term is almost up.


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## treefrog (7 January 2008)

I'm short ZFX, XJO, BHP, ANZ 

over the past few weeks that has been good news

and today is very good news


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## rhen (7 January 2008)

Knobby22 said:


> No answers from Bush. How are tax cuts going to help? And limiting loan size is very socialist of him and in any case it is too late, the horse has bolted.
> 
> The good news is that his term is almost up.




Dear Knobby22
I do hope your nom de plume bears no correspondence with Catch22 
Firstly, maybe you are in the wrong thread?
Secondly, your analysis is somewhat superficial, and dare i say, biased. Times like these require objective analysis beyond my ability.
Thirdly, there will be investors/traders who will believe this is good news for one of a myriad of reasons probably different from my own. I accept the opposite. For those people, please review the name of this section of the forum. I respect your opinion, right or wrong... just not where it is posted.
Fourthly, there are now many bears-come-lately who would dearly love to see this _correction_ hit...the sooner the better for them. 7% is a comedown on what we have been experiencing.
Finally, I wish us all good fortune in the weeks ahead.


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## noirua (7 January 2008)

Good news for Australia: "China-Australia Axis Turns on Mining PM's Mandarine".
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aO_ev6uyrctg&refer=exclusive


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## noirua (7 January 2008)

US 10-year-bond interest rate continues to fall at 3.854%. Good for holders in these dodgy looking markets, a breath of good news outside Australia. Cash, coal, bonds...


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## Bill M (12 January 2008)

Monday our market will drop and the NAB will drop along with it. Where it will go I don't know but at $34-$35 NAB is a good buy. It will be off 22% from it's all time highs and it's been hit harder than the other banks. It is paying a fully Franked Dividend yield of 5.4% too and best of all director Ahmed Fahour has recently bought 60,100 ordinary shares consideration of 2.224 million dollars, now that's a vote of confidence. I am not a trader but a long term investor and I'm happy with it's long term prospects, cheers.


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## noirua (15 January 2008)

Good news that Australia is booming and inflation is on the increase. New ports being extended and updated should see exports grow steadily for very many years to come.:aus:


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## Bill M (15 January 2008)

noirua said:


> Good news that Australia is booming and inflation is on the increase. New ports being extended and updated should see exports grow steadily for very many years to come.:aus:



And with Billions of Dollars of Super money looking for investments, I think the share market has a long way to go upwards. There are lots of stocks that have been over sold lately, some that severely that the franked dividends from them offer better grossed up incomes than 2 year Term Deposits. Yes right on, go Australia.


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## noirua (17 January 2008)

Great news is spreading as the price of oil falls and estimates of US$80 a barrel for Texas crude. Interest rates tumbling in the States.

Opportunities out there now as this looks to be nothing but a severe shakeout. Keep your nerve my friends as this Great Storm passes.


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## Nyden (17 January 2008)

noirua said:


> Great news is spreading as the price of oil falls and estimates of US$80 a barrel for Texas crude. Interest rates tumbling in the States.
> 
> Opportunities out there now as this looks to be nothing but a severe shakeout. Keep your nerve my friends as this Great Storm passes.




Noirua how do you keep such a positive head throughout all this?  Are you in cash or stock / holding losses on the belief of a rebound?

Personally I can just feel myself becoming a little irrational!

Hopefully a lot of good news next week as a few companies announce their Q2 reports


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## Lucky_Country (17 January 2008)

ERA going great just good too see some green


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## noirua (18 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> Noirua how do you keep such a positive head throughout all this?  Are you in cash or stock / holding losses on the belief of a rebound?
> 
> Personally I can just feel myself becoming a little irrational!
> 
> Hopefully a lot of good news next week as a few companies announce their Q2 reports




Hi Nyden, Compared with the crash of 1987 this is not that much really. As you probably guessed, I'm 20% invested in shares, 30% in bonds and about 50% in cash. All my shares are quite high risk and that part of my portfolio has fallen about 20% since January 1st.

Australia is doing very well at the moment and this severe shakeout is likely to stop Kevin Rudd & Co from increasing interest rates, and in my view that's "Good News".

This ASX tumble, because other markets have fallen out of bed, is as much overdone as burning the toast.

This bull market has continued for about 4 years now and markets may well have needed a pull back. 

Interest rates are going to hit low levels in the US and Europe and the next news, I'm betting on it, is that the US recession isn't quite going to happen afterall. President Bush is now bound to take Bernanke's advice and cut personal taxes and the Democrats will cave in and agree to it in double quick time. Good News ahead!


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## noirua (19 January 2008)

:aus:Worry thee not, as only the weak apples have fallen off the investment tree.:aus: Much selling was indiscriminate and many stocks can be expected to bounce back strongly. :aus:


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## Bill M (19 January 2008)

noirua, I agree with your assessment of the market. I am a long term investor and a self funded retiree. To me the market at it's current value presents a fantastic buying opportunity. No one knows exactly where this present correction will stop, we can only guess, so what does one do? I look at the the dividends, PE ratios, earnings and long term prospects of a company and them make a decision on "what that company will do for for me now and in the future." 

Over these last few weeks people have been forced to sell good quality stock at lower levels because of their margin calls. Then there is the fear factor as well when people throw out good stock for cheap prices for no rational reason. That further drives down the market which makes it look even better for people like me who want to buy good quality companies at lower prices. As I have little money left the decision for me to buy is made harder but as I don't know when the market will stop going down (and nobody does) I use the dollar cost averaging approach. I have bought a few small parcels here and there over the last few weeks topping up my outstanding blue chip portfolio. From this point if the market bolts upwards I am set and need to do nothing. If it sinks lower I am happy to hold and collect the dividends.

If it for some unknown reason it tanks even more I will be pulling out my cash  and will buy even more blue chip top dividend paying companies.

This is the most important thing for sharemarket investors to understand. Why on earth would you pull your money out the sharemarket to get 6% interest and pay 30% (or 47% depending on your income) tax on that when you can easily get between 5 and 8% fully franked dividends from good stocks now? To me going into cash right now is a backward step. Lower prices now mean even better buying opportunities, higher prices from here we sit back and enjoy. If you bought at the highs and are looking at lows right now sit tight and wait, it always comes good again unless you are gambling on penny stocks that don't pay dividends no one knows anything about.

Our country and our businesses are in great condition and our sharemarket will continue to provide great returns and as long as you make the right decisions now you will always do well out of the sharemarket.:aus:


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## noirua (19 January 2008)

Yes Bill M and good old President Bush is proposing further good news:

President George Bush has acknowledged the risk of a US recession and called for measures worth US$145 billion to give the economy a "shot in the arm".

He said the package would have to be about 1% of gross domestic product and big enough to make a difference to the "Large and dynamic" US economy.

Mr Bush said it has to include tax incentives for US business and direct tax relief for the American people.


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## noirua (19 January 2008)

There is so much bad news about shares being posted on ASF. Very soon, we may have the first poster on ASF jumping out of a window or off a cliff.

If we look around at the Aussie economy, exports in particular, growth, jobs etc, etc, there is not that much for anyone to worry about. Let the band :band play.


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## sam76 (21 January 2008)

from a newsletter i subscribe to

Australian Economic Perspective

There have been a number of data points recently, highlighting weak consumer spending in the UK and US. Yet this same data seems to have spooked a number of investors, leading to renewed concern and many client queries as to the resilience of the Australian consumer. Acknowledging the downside risks posed by a global slowdown, there are two key reasons why we believe the Australian consumer will nevertheless have a good year. 
The first is that the factors driving down consumption in the US and UK aren’t really evident in Australia. House prices aren’t falling and the emerging shortage of housing domestically should ensure they won’t. Moreover, savings are at their highest in 7-years. Indeed household balance sheets generally are in pretty good shape. 
The second is that rising interest rates and petrol prices are being offset by strong, job induced income growth and tax cuts. Very different from the US and UK experience. Leading indicators point to ongoing strong job gains and thus income growth for at least the 1H08.


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## noirua (22 January 2008)

Take your eyes off the markets and if you'r invested in Australia then there lies the least of your worries.

The Aussie$ is weakening, trading around A$1.16 to the US$ in London this morning, BST. Not a great deal of movement, as yet, but encouraging for Aussie exporters.

The London market is very weak at the moment, down over 4% on the FTSE 100. London has its financial problems with its Financial Institutions well wedded to the US markets and their sub-prime disaster problems. The property sector that boomed for over 10 years, in the UK, is well over bought. The £ is plunging against the Euro and falling against the Greenback.
***The Aussie market is quite different and these worrying problems are not an Australian one.:aus:


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## noirua (22 January 2008)

Markets appear to take the view that nothing can be done about the American economy, but before all this, talk was of the States being just able to stave off recession.

Interest rates in US Bonds are pointing closer to an interest rate decision by the Fed of a 0.75% drop. Whether this is decided on Tuesday or in a few weeks time won't really matter that much to the economy, though more, perhaps, to help market sentiment.

So much of these problems are over exagerated, wildly in some cases, and when the dust clears we will see that little has changed from a Month ago.

Lower interest rates are a good thing for companies and the low value of the US Dollar at present will be seen later as a missed opportunity for some.


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## noirua (22 January 2008)

Well, all this turmoil in markets just because some think there is more chance of a recession in the US is throwing up opportunities.

Good news in Australia with reasonable growth figures and an expanding economy looking for a rate increase. Now that expansion may be reduced just a little and pressures on inflation abating from that. 

China had 11.5% growth last year and some of that on the back of the Olympic Games. Forecast by the Chinese Government at 8.5% for 2008 and all this fuss may knock it back to a more sensible 7%. 
We all know the Chinese and Indian stock markets are overpriced. Partly due to the Chinese not being able to invest how they wish outside China.


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## Dukey (22 January 2008)

A small chunk of good news for anyone holding CSL...
they are still sitting around high $32 mark - a fantastic performance in this market carnage!!!!   

....

wish I had got in there when I was umming and ahhing about CSL months back!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## noirua (22 January 2008)

Good News, in away it is, as the futures market shows the Dow opening about 4.17% down on Tuesday, in New York.

Plenty of confidence around on Bloomberg TV for Asian and Far East markets.  Look around carefully now and look to buy those stocks that have been blasted for no reason.


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## Bushman (22 January 2008)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...D8F-468C-98D4-C43B017EA6F9}&dist=MostReadHome

A contrarian view...


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## noirua (23 January 2008)

If you want to get too excited about todays recovery then go ahead and do so, who cares.
Watch all the interest rates tumble and before long everyone will have forgotten what has happened in January 2008 or at the very least, they will not be able to remember quite what they said at the time.


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## Bill M (23 January 2008)

Today I bought two blue chip stocks that are paying 9 to 10% dividends (grossed up) and I am very happy with my purchase at these prices. The sharemarket is incredible value right now and a lot of companies are paying dividends next month. For long term investments the share market sure beats 6% in a bank account where you got to pay tax on the interest, cheers for now.


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## noirua (24 January 2008)

Well, what was that all about now, good grief.  Oil is a bit cheaper now and should creep down below US$80 a barrel, expensive enough me thinks.
Shares should recover in a faltering fashion, having had the wind blown out of their sales and some of the rigging in need of repair. All this due to all that shouting "Panic, panic" or was it "recession in America".
Sure, America, China and Europe will slowdown, and as forecast previously, last year, the IMF expects World growth to slow from 2007's 5.2%. We new that anyway.


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## noirua (25 January 2008)

Shoring up the battlements in America as the walls of Wall Street shake and shudder. A period of calm ahead as markets realise that this was just a severe shake out. Patience and calm are the order of the day and search in the debris for value.


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## noirua (26 January 2008)

You don't know yet! Well you could hardly have missed out on the Coal factor and the present world shortage and China's 2 month export ban. This is great news for Australia and its coal mining industry, don't miss out.


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## Bruza (26 January 2008)

Thanks noirua,

always great to hear good news, keep it up!


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## noirua (2 February 2008)

The Dow finished up 1.5% and the FTSE 100 up 2.5% as markets see that the US recession is just not going to happen.  
New growth figures point to 2% growth in the UK in 2008 and 2.5% in 2009, and with the 2012 Olympic Games on the horizon the economy will gather speed.
The forecast Bear Market is just a massive shakeout that will do world markets a lot of good in the long run.


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## noirua (3 February 2008)

Australia's Rudd and Co should not be concerned about a 3.8% inflation figure and think more about the growth of Australia's resource companies.  Interest rates need to be lowered in line with the United States, so as to keep the AUS$ versus US$ exchange rates at reasonable levels. 

Good news all the way for Australia.


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## noirua (7 February 2008)

Good news remains on the oil front as prices slowly move towards US$88 a barrel and hopefully to US$85 for Nymex West Texas Light Sweet - Closed Wednesday at US$88.41 down $1.61 for West Texas Intermediate - putting prices worldwide at US$80 to US$85 a barrel would be very helpful.


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## noirua (8 February 2008)

Good to see coal prices pressing on up and so many more thermal coal power stations being opened week by week in China without any care about future supplies. Profits look set to boom in 2008 and the coffers of Rudd and Co will soon be bulging.


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## noirua (9 February 2008)

Congress has passed President George W Bushs' economy booster package.  Every adult will get up to $600 and every child the sum of $300.


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## noirua (10 February 2008)

NCIG are gradually sorting out the shipping problem at the Newcastle Dock.  Delays for coal shipments are down to 8.74 days.  Ships at anchor have reduced from the peak at 71 to 28.


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## noirua (11 February 2008)

Good news for those who have plenty of wheat for sale, prices are set to rise and rise.


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## sam76 (11 February 2008)

Economy Rebounds Before Election, Treasuries Show (Update1) 

By Daniel Kruger

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Before you can say ``Barack Obama is president of the United States,'' the economy will be growing faster again. 

That forecast is based on the rise in the five-year Treasury yield from its lowest level relative to two- and 10- year notes since 2001. The last two times that happened was during the recessions of 1990 and 2001, and the economy began to expand within nine months. 

``We're actually starting to see tell-tale signs by the market that it expects the economy to be in recovery in six to nine months,'' said James Caron, head of U.S. interest-rate strategy in New York at Morgan Stanley. The five-year note ``tends to be the most forward-looking point on the curve,'' said Caron, whose firm is one of the 20 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the Federal Reserve. 

If past is prologue, then the five-year note's yield indicates the economy will be on the mend by the Nov. 4 general election. Whoever wins the White House may have Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to thank for cutting interest rates at the fastest pace in almost two decades and President George W. Bush and Congress for a proposed $168 billion stimulus package. 

Obama, the junior senator from Illinois, and New York Senator Hillary Clinton each control about half the delegates needed for the Democratic Party's nomination. Arizona Senator John McCain is the front-runner among Republicans. 

`Put in Place' 

While the risk of a recession is now even, growth will accelerate to a 2.5 percent annual rate in the final three months of the year from 0.6 percent last quarter, according to the median forecast of 62 economists polled by Bloomberg News from Jan. 30 to Feb. 7. 

``The economy in the second half will definitely get a boost from the fiscal plan'' and Fed rate cuts, said Stuart Spodek, co-head of U.S. bonds in New York at BlackRock Inc., which manages $513 billion in debt. ``The pieces are being put in place.'' 

Spodek said he sold five-year notes in the first two weeks of January and bought two-year securities. 

The yield on the benchmark 2 7/8 percent Treasury due in January 2013 fell 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 2.69 percent last week, according to New York-based bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price rose 7/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face value, to 100 27/32. The benchmark two-year note's yield fell 13 basis points to 1.94 percent. Treasuries were little changed today. 

What Caron bases his forecast on is the yield on the five- year note compared with the average of the two- and 10-year Treasury. Five-year yields dropped 16 basis points below the average on Jan. 22. The last time they were lower was January 2001, when the difference was 18 basis points. The U.S. was in a recession was from March to November 2001. 

`Back to Normal' 

In August 1990, five-year yields were 2 basis points below the average and rose to 36 basis points above by June 1991. There was a recession from July 1990 through March 1991. 

To avert a recession, the Fed cut its target rate for overnight loans between banks twice this year, to 3 percent from 4.25 percent. Central bank officials are confident their actions will pull the economy out of its malaise. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said expansion is poised to resume in the second half of the year. 

``We're going to go back to normal growth rates,'' he said Feb. 7 in a Bloomberg Television interview during a visit to Mexico City. ``We're going to have slower growth for a while, for a half-year.'' 

Service Slowdown 

Yields on five-year notes have increased 14 basis points since the Fed first reduced rates this year on Jan. 22, while two-year note yields have fallen 6 basis points. 

Hindering a recovery is the weakest labor market in more than seven years, a decline in services industries and a slowdown in consumer borrowing. 

Employers shed 17,000 jobs in January, the first reduction since 2003, the Labor Department said Feb. 1. The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing Index unexpectedly contracted in January at the fastest pace since the 2001, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said Feb. 5. Consumer debt rose at the slowest pace in eight months in December as borrowers cut back on credit-card use, the Fed reported Feb. 7. 

Proposals by Obama and Clinton to revive the economy are similar. Both recommend allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire, extending unemployment insurance and reducing demand for foreign oil by building more environmentally sensitive energy sources. 

Uninterrupted Growth 

McCain favors making Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent. He also advocates a mix of spending reductions and lower taxes or reforms to boost growth. 

As Bush leaves office, his departure may be ``analogous to the first President Bush,'' said Margaret Patel, who oversees $1.4 billion at Evergreen Investment Management Co. in Boston. 

President George H.W. Bush, the current president's father, left in January 1993 with the economy at the beginning of almost 10 years of uninterrupted growth, she said. 

``The economy may be stabilized and starting to do better,'' said Patel, who is avoiding Treasuries and buying high-yield debt of energy and basic-materials companies.


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## noirua (18 February 2008)

Again we have coal, as perhaps, the number one star amongst commodities. Prices out of Newcastle Dock, on the spot market, closed last week at just short of US$140 a tonne...coal is King at present.


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## noirua (19 February 2008)

Don't worry about a depression or recession as it is good news ahead for Australia. The US efforts to booster the economy and help mortgage borrowers will gradually work to pull the US economy round.
Lowest unemployment data, 4.1%, in living memory, for most that is, shows the direction of a booming Australia.


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## noirua (19 February 2008)

Are you a bit concerned about Aussie exports, well don't be. Exports of Iron Ore, coal and other commodities are set to grow and grow as ports are extended and updated.
Recession in Australia, that's all a load of...


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## noirua (20 February 2008)

Good news from the banking sector as the UK's Barclays Bank turns in just a 1% drop in profits for 2007 and a 10% increase in dividend. Vale secures a 65% increase in price to supply iron ore to Japan.


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## noirua (21 February 2008)

More good news on the coal front as a smaller miner, Gloucester Coal, has agreed prices for 20% of its thermal coal at over US$100 per tonne. Others now look set to follow with their own announcements.  Higher profits equal greater income for Australia.


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## noirua (1 March 2008)

It's still good news all the way for Australia and don't worry about the States. Weak dollar and low interest rates are doing wonders on the export front and Bernanke is loving it and could not care less.


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## Bill M (2 March 2008)

Plenty of directors buying shares in their own banks, now that's good news.

"MUST be something happening to the banks judging by the sudden share buying by a clutch of bank heavies. It might have something to do with scrip across the sector falling by anything up to 36% from peak levels.

Last week, the crew from the ANZ Bank, led by one Charley B. Goode, all waded into the market with buying orders. As reported here, Charley bought a bit more than $1 million worth of stock."

Full Story Here


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## MRC & Co (3 March 2008)

baahahahahahaha, some of these posts by noirua crack me up!  

Good news for gold, as gold futures move even higher and higher and higher!


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## MRC & Co (3 March 2008)

explod said:


> .   One to short the markets, 2. as fisher says get into oil, 3 good food companies, 4 precious metals to hedge against the collapse of currencies and so on.




Can I please have a loan explod?  This was a well timed, well dated prediction!

Hope you went shopping for some bread, shorted the sh*t out of the banks and bought some gold!  All I can see is one big !


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## noirua (3 March 2008)

Good news for an enlightened portfolio. 65% to 75% in fixed interest and cash. The rest in mining shares and even better, coal and gold producers. Remain confident about Australia.


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## noirua (4 March 2008)

Just as I thought and it's confirmed, onwards an upwards for the Aussie Tiger Economy:  http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=8114&setSub=1


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## noirua (5 March 2008)

The Aussie Dollar has weakened for three straight days as increasing numbers go for a no further rate increase this year.


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## bvbfan (5 March 2008)

Only good for exporters.

Need to AUD to stay strong or we risk importing more inflation from petrol, food etc which have skyrocketed lately


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## noirua (5 March 2008)

bvbfan said:


> Only good for exporters.
> 
> Need to AUD to stay strong or we risk importing more inflation from petrol, food etc which have skyrocketed lately




It would be good news if more Aussies waved the:aus: and made a point of not buying foreign goods where ever they can.


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## noirua (7 March 2008)

noirua said:


> Good news for an enlightened portfolio. 65% to 75% in fixed interest and cash. The rest in mining shares and even better, coal and gold producers. Remain confident about Australia.



Are you concerned?  Well don't be and ignore the doom and gloom that some may spread. Interest rates should not rise from here and a downward march should start later in the year.


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## noirua (8 March 2008)

noirua said:


> Are you concerned?  Well don't be and ignore the doom and gloom that some may spread. Interest rates should not rise from here and a downward march should start later in the year.



...and good old President Bush is to pump US$40 billion more into the market to help liquidity.


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## wayneL (8 March 2008)

noirua said:


> ...and good old President Bush is to pump US$40 billion more into the market to help liquidity.




I wouldn't have thought that as good news.


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## noirua (8 March 2008)

wayneL said:


> I wouldn't have thought that as good news.





Oh well, at least US$40 billion is better than
President Bush is doing his best and it is Greenspan and Bernankes' fault, so Dr Doom & Gloom says.


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## noirua (8 March 2008)

noirua said:


> Oh well, at least US$40 billion is better than
> President Bush is doing his best and it is Greenspan and Bernankes' fault, so Dr Doom & Gloom says.




Has also pointed out the historically low price of sugar. It may be good news for some to seek out the companies that could be set to benefit.


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## noirua (12 March 2008)

Good news is now coming in at the double as the USA and Europe pile in the dough. Another US$200 billion to help liquidity.


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## noirua (15 March 2008)

noirua said:


> Good news for an enlightened portfolio. 65% to 75% in fixed interest and cash. The rest in mining shares and even better, coal and gold producers. Remain confident about Australia.



Increasingly, with the US Fed set to cut rates to near zero we can see the need for cash and fixed interest investments, the good news investment.
Australia is still set fair in the Coal and gold producers sector.


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## noirua (17 March 2008)

No problems, no worries, as President George W Bush has said that the American Economy will recover in the second half of 2008.


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## noirua (19 March 2008)

There we are, further good news, as US interest rates fall.


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## Buster (19 March 2008)

Hey Noirua,



noirua said:


> There we are, further good news, as US interest rates fall.




Ha ha... Are you the only one posting in here.. 

I'm with you by the way with the little rays of sunshine around the place, but it's pretty hard to avoid the 'Doom & Gloom' at the moment... it seems to be the flavour of the month (or should I say YTD) ..  It's a frenzy of 'bad news' reporting..  Not one for conspiracy theories, but I'm surprised that the 'financial terrorists trying to take out the US' haven't rated a mention yet..

Keep up the good work and hold the faith brother..

Regards,

Buster


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## noirua (20 March 2008)

More good news for markets as USA oil inventories are expected to show marked rises and oil is set to drop below US$100 a barrel.  A reversal to commodity prices will also give some relief from the upward spiral and should fall to sensible levels. 
Even President George W Bush is more upbeat after polls show that more than 50% of the nation are now with him on his view that the allied forces are winning in Iraq. 

Don't be all grim faced out there, plenty to smile about.


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## noirua (20 March 2008)

Yes, the strength of the United States is important and the need to reduce the deficit. Sure, signs of reduced growth in the States but the weak US Dollar has managed to weaken imports into the US. 
All this should eventually lead to more sensible growth figures in China and India.

Australia, well, all this should prevent the Aussie Dollar from strengthening further. Miners can take lower prices provided this happens.


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## sam76 (22 March 2008)

The charts haven't pasted but you can see them here

(Thanks to Moondog)

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=641363&msgno=2683015#2683015


Out With The Bad News�In With The Good News! Years

Cliff Droke

Investors have had to endure a tremendous onslaught of horrendous news that has shaken the financial sector to the core. One pundit likened the past few months to flying a hang glider in a hurricane. That�s how it has felt to all of us as bad news begat more bad news�which in turn drove the financial markets lower.

The good news is that the winds have now diminished and the dark clouds are on the verge of lifting. It�s time now to focus on the positive things to come instead of dwelling on the negatives of yester-year. That�s the message the stock market is telling to anyone who will listen.

Last week I asserted that an interim bottom process was already well underway for the U.S. stock market. The action and events of the last several days have thus far confirmed the accuracy of that statement. Market psychology doesn�t lie, and neither do the technical indicators. Put/call and short interest ratio measures have hit extremes normally associated with dominant market lows. Just look at the latest reading in the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio along with the 15-day moving average. The latest signals are bullish from a contrarian stance.



The market�s message is clear: It�s time to start looking for better days ahead instead of focusing on the fears of yesterday.

Meanwhile, the wave form pattern for the S&P 500 index is looking more and more constructive by the week. The internal momentum configuration for the NYSE broad market is also showing improvement. The tape itself is starting to clear up and the fact that the market was able to hold above its lows in the past several days in the face of horrendous, earth-shattering news is evidence enough from a tape reading standpoint that the market has already discounted the worst news and is looking forward to better days. 

Smart traders are those who get in line with the market�s future outlook, not the past. While the average retail investor embraces a rear-view mirror approach to the market and is afraid of his own shadow right now, the corporate insiders have been loading up on shares of their own companies. This is the message of the Gambill Oscillator, which measures what corporate executives of the Russell 3000 companies are doing with their company�s shares. The insiders were seen busily accumulating stocks during the past few weeks in anticipation of an interim bottom and eventual turnaround. Their prescience should soon be rewarded.

To give you some idea of just how bearish the average investor has been in just the past 7-10 days, take a look at the following chart. 



This shows that the retail investor crowd was almost unanimous in its belief that another down-leg was beginning and that more financial catastrophes are on the way. My own in-house investor sentiment poll registered an astounding 90% bearish reading last week, with only one respondent claiming to be bullish! This is the highest reading of bears versus bulls my weekly poll has shown in the past 15 months. 

While many respondents to my previous article suggested to me that �contrarianism no longer works,� I would beg to differ. The market action of just the last few days in the face of the Bear Stearns debacle should be sufficient to convince the skeptics that this market hasn�t run out of lives yet! The Fed�s responsiveness to the financial crisis in providing abundant liquidity will go a long way in preventing the sort of meltdown that many pundits are predicting. 

Speaking of liquidity, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate 75 basis points this week and brought the target rate down to 2.50. That�s good news from a monetary liquidity standpoint and already the yield curve has shown tremendous improvement over the past few weeks. This means it�s only a matter of time (perhaps 3-4 months) before the economy starts showing improvement. While everyone from Wall Street analysts to Main Street observers continue wringing their hands over the talk of recession, most have completely missed the undeniable signs that recovery is on its way. 

Just take a look at the extraordinary trend in the yield curve in the past few weeks. Cut this chart out and paste it to your forehead: This is the biggest story for the financial markets and the economy right now and almost no one is talking about it. Everyone is too busy crying over spilt milk concerning the economic slowdown that they�ve forgotten how to look ahead to the future. They�re all still looking backward instead of forward, which is what counts where the market is concerned.



A headline from the Financial Times newspaper on March 17, seemed to capture what most investors are feeling right now: �Wall Street waits for the next domino to fall.� On the front page of the March 18 issue of FT there was a graphic depiction of dominoes toppling along with the headline, �After Bear: turmoil in the markets.� The financial press has gone out of its way to evoke the image of the toppling domino effect in the financial markets. They did the same thing 10 years ago back in 1998 with the LTCM debacle and Asian currency crisis. If you�ve ever taken a course in logic or rhetoric then you are probably aware of the fallacy of reasoning known as �The Domino Fallacy.� If history provides any lessons for us, the current crisis will turn out to be yet another domino fallacy.

I normally don�t put much emphasis on the weekly Investor�s Intelligence sentiment poll since I find AAII to be more instructive in getting a read on short-term investor sentiment. Normally this is true since Investor�s Intelligence measures what newsletter writers are saying, as opposed to what independent investors are feeling. However, during sustained down markets or protracted trading ranges, Investor�s Intelligence has an advantage over AAII because this is when even the most perma-bull newsletter writers start questioning their faith in the stock market.

Recently, a study by Mike Burke and John Gray, published by Investors Intelligence, made the following observations:

�The sharp increase in advisor pessimism could be blamed on tumbling index action and the increased belief that the economy is in a recession�.The spread between the bulls and bears is -12.2%, a sharp drop from +5.3% a week ago. This is also the first negative difference since October 2002�.�

Peter Eliades of Stock Market Cycles comments on this finding are worth repeating: �The plurality of bears over bulls today, an apparently meager 12.2%, is huge on a relative basis. It is the highest plurality of bears over bulls since October 11th, 2002 (14.8%). But before that, you have to go back to January 6th, 1995, to find another plurality of bears over bulls greater than today's reading of 12.2%. For over 13 years, there has been such a pent-up and persistent bullishness among advisers that this is only the second plurality of bears over bulls over 12% in the past 13 years.�

Now we come to the $64 million question: who will you listen to now? The �stopped clock� pessimists and media pundits who have been preaching financial doom and gloom since the last major bottom in 2002? They were correct from October 2007 to January 2008, but that�s a mere drop in the bucket compared to the years they missed. If they�re wrong about the 6-12 month outlook (and the evidence strongly suggests they are) then they�ll end up giving back whatever gains were made from those four months, and then some more.

You can allow yourself to be influenced by the daily news headlines along with everyone else and be whipsawed left and right along the way. You can also choose to listen to the tape, which tells all. T The market�s message is undeniable in the face of terrible news and trader sentiment: it�s holding its own in spite of the unending deluge of bad news and the internals are showing improvement on an actual basis as well as on a rate of change basis. 

As the interim bottoming process continues, the market�s undeniable message is that better days are ahead -- and with it will come an end to the endless stream of bad news and a better economic and financial market outlook. Are you prepared to take advantage of it?

Clif Droke
March 23, 2008

Clif Droke is the editor of the three times weekly Momentum Strategies Report newsletter, published since 1997, which covers U.S. equity markets and various stock sectors, natural resources, money supply and bank credit trends, the dollar and the U.S. economy. The forecasts are made using a unique proprietary blend of analytical methods involving internal momentum and moving average systems, as well as securities lending trends. He is also the author of numerous books, including "How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits." For more information visit www.clifdroke.com


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## noirua (24 March 2008)

Very good news for markets, they're closed until Tuesday.


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## overule (24 March 2008)

noirua said:


> Very good news for markets, they're closed until Tuesday.




Why's that a good news ? 
The good news should be that the market is going up on tuesday


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## noirua (25 March 2008)

No need for Australia to take the lead in opening for the week. Handed the baton over.

Wall Street closed nearly 200 points up and that following a jump in Taiwan.  Bloomberg TV mentioned that Saudi Arabia are now about to increase oil supplies and a few other supplies are coming onstream. Even more good news and Bear Stearns investors get $10 per share, not just $2.


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## noirua (2 April 2008)

A very cheery period that proves how right this Good News thread is. Everything gradually coming back together in the States and it's forward with confidence in the second half. Whilst you wait have a


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## noirua (15 April 2008)

Thank heavens for Australia. The coal sector is booming and set to continue for years. The west will be hit hard, care not, remember, thou is on the Australian team, the winning tide.


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## noirua (27 April 2008)

noirua said:


> Thank heavens for Australia. The coal sector is booming and set to continue for years. The west will be hit hard, care not, remember, thou is on the Australian team, the winning tide.



The tidal flow continues and it's all Australia's way, in the Iron Ore and Coal sectors. 

The mining sector is now saving people in the outback as the terrible drought continues. Renting out properties to mining staff.


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## noirua (2 May 2008)

With news that growth was at 0.6% it proves the USA are not in recession, and the Greenback is looking to move stronger from here, low as it is of course.
Thought from the UK's Bank of England that sub-prime losses have been overstated, using a 50% loss basis, and will prove to be quite a lot lower.
Dow close over 13,000 is a plus point.
YES! Good news indeed.


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## Spanning Tree (2 May 2008)

World stock markets seem to be rebounding now.

All those gold nuts I'm sure are feeling nervous now that gold has dropped to $850 per ounce.


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## noirua (3 May 2008)

Berkshire Hathaway are thought to have US$46 billion available to invest and are thinking of the finance sector.
The good news keeps coming and coming.


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## noirua (6 May 2008)

noirua said:


> Berkshire Hathaway are thought to have US$46 billion available to invest and are thinking of the finance sector.
> The good news keeps coming and coming.



Yes, they really are on the prowl, having noted an interest in purchasing two UK insurance companies:  Direct line and Churchill Insurance,
These two companies have been put up for sale by the beleaguered Royal Bank of Scotland that was forced to raise A$26 billion a few weeks ago.


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## noirua (18 May 2008)

Good news, particularly for East of Australia.  Over $20 billion earmarked for further upgrading of ports and the rail network.  This will help the expansion of coal exports and stop the lottery for rail facilities and ships.


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## noirua (19 May 2008)

After the speech by President George W Bush yesterday at the W.E.C., we can expect Saudi Arabia to announce increased oil production.


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## noirua (21 May 2008)

noirua said:


> After the speech by President George W Bush yesterday at the W.E.C., we can expect Saudi Arabia to announce increased oil production.



Well, they didn't increase oil supplies, not at least until September, and this is GOOD NEWS for oil stocks, and probably gold as well.


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## noirua (5 July 2008)

The Aussie is set to rise higher and higher as more cash, US Dollars, pore into Australia. This should be a time of glory and plenty as we power Asia - God bless Australia.


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## noirua (9 July 2008)

Good news all the way for the Aussie coal sector. Semi-soft coking coal looks set to be around US$240 per tonne this time round against US$60 a tonne last year.


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## noirua (9 July 2008)

noirua said:


> Good news all the way for the Aussie coal sector. Semi-soft coking coal looks set to be around US$240 per tonne this time round against US$60 a tonne last year.




Yes, it is coal all the way for 30 years or more and with new technology and use of higher grades of thermal and anthracite it will become more acceptable. THEN, it's uranium and AUSTRALIA all the way.


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## noirua (10 July 2008)

Good news for Australia as mining bails out the economy, set fair, Aussie fair. Dow down over 2%, who cares, as we're on a roll now.


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## Sean K (10 July 2008)

I've recently read a couple of reports on the progress of the Chinese economy and when they will take over the US. It's obviously going to happen, just the time frame posed. Whatever the case, Australian being the mine of China, our time will come after the financial services and the world economy (and probably us) get over this correction/recession/bear/crash. You just have to have some money left when the bottom is hit.


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## noirua (13 July 2008)

ustralia to see thermal coal prices out of the great coal port of Newcastle at around US$200 per tonne

***not finished yet, screen has gone odd, back soon


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## noirua (13 July 2008)

It is good news indeed for Australia to see thermal coal prices out of the great coal Port of Newcastle at around US$200 per tonne.


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## noirua (14 July 2008)

This thread sees only good news and the collapse of IndyMac is a great one.  Markets are looking to see a big collapse or 6 in America and Europe, and in 1975 Burmah Oil collapsed, a little bell rang, and the great bull market began.
Added to this thread as well, the wonderful song sung by Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDXZkBIxso4


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## noirua (14 July 2008)

Further excellent news:  Alliance and Leicester Bank, UK mortgage bank, has announced that it is in takeover talks - shares have bounced 50%: UK footsie 100 index is up 80 points: Europe up 1% approx across the board, DAX 0.9%, CAC 1.3%, SMI 1.1%: and The US Treasury has announced support to shore up Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

Thoughts though, as UK announce that "factory gate inflation" has risen 10%. Hopefully higher interest rates in Europe and America will hold back the Aussie, good news, certainly.


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## noirua (14 July 2008)

noirua said:


> Further excellent news:  Alliance and Leicester Bank, UK mortgage bank, has announced that it is in takeover talks -
> The Spanish Bank Santander has announced a $2.6 billion takeover of the British Bank, Alliance and Leicester, 50% above the previous closing price. Footsie continues its rise to 93 points as the rest of Europe follows.
> 
> Looks like quite a bounce coming tomorrow guys!


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## noirua (2 August 2008)

Good News and blue sky ahead. Take no notice of Colin Rudd, who's he anyway, what does he know, anyone would think he was Prime Minister the way he talks, good grief.

The Aussie is weakening, just a bit, and this is good news as all those interest rate rises were overdone -  action that brings about recession.


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## noirua (5 August 2008)

Good News continues to arrive, bring it on, as they say. Interest rates are set to fall, inflation set to fall, and the Aussie is set to fall even further.  This will help exporters and blunt the importers.
OVERALL, it's good news all the way for Australia.


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## noirua (5 August 2008)

noirua said:


> Good News continues to arrive, bring it on, as they say. Interest rates are set to fall, inflation set to fall, and the Aussie is set to fall even further.  This will help exporters and blunt the importers.
> OVERALL, it's good news all the way for Australia.



Further good news as the Aussie starts to tank. Exchange tate now A$1.09 to the US$1.00 in London, and A$2.13 to th £1, spot prices by Foremost Group.


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## JTLP (5 August 2008)

That's the worst news ever.

I'm about to head overseas...i dont want to hear this crap about a falling dollar!


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## noirua (6 August 2008)

noirua said:


> Further good news as the Aussie starts to tank. Exchange tate now A$1.09 to the US$1.00 in London, and A$2.13 to th £1, spot prices by Foremost Group.




Closed in London at AUS$2.1341 to the £1.00 and AUS$1.0922 to the US$1.00. Smiles round the mining and export community. Oil price picks up in the US.
The UK FTSE is up 2.52% at the close and the US DOW 30 up 1.9%.


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## noirua (6 August 2008)

JTLP said:


> That's the worst news ever.
> 
> I'm about to head overseas...i dont want to hear this crap about a falling dollar!



Hi JTLP, I'm afraid you're :topic as it's "Good News Only Thread"


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## noirua (17 August 2008)

In the early 1900s Australia, per person, was one of the richest countries in the world. Now in the early part of the 2,000s it is to repeat itself. Do not be left behind!


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## noirua (20 August 2008)

Exellent upbeat news from BHP in terms of profits and confidence in commodities going forward.


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## Speewha (20 August 2008)

Hello,

MAH announced today record profit. Increase in dividend to record high. Growth for 09 to be high end of 20% . Increase in offer price for Ausdrill.

Will be interesting to see market reaction. Not expecting to see much lift due to overall market sentiment at this time. 

Did try to break $1.70 last week before falling away, hope based on results will knock on the door of that level again in next month or so. 

Regards


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## noirua (21 August 2008)

Further great news for Australian coal exports. Shenua Energy are to spend US$19 billion on new coal plants.
A new coal-fired plant will open in the Northern Province next year.  The plant will require 60 million tonnes per annum of thermal, PCI and semi-soft coking coal.


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## noirua (3 September 2008)

Interest rates are lowered 0.25% and will fall further, now that Kevin Rudd & Co have come to their senses, at last.  The Aussie$ should settle around AUS$1.30 - AUS$$1.40 to the Greenback, and this makes perfect sense as interest rates fall to 6.5% by the years end. From there, we will see a gradual fall to 5% in 2009.


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## noirua (5 September 2008)

The tanking Aussie is wonderful news for Australia's two speed economy. A further fall to AU$1.30 to the Greenback will improve returns in a falling price commodity exporting market, and reduce the price for other exports in foreign currency terms.
Overall, not a worry in the world for :aus:


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## noirua (6 September 2008)

The Reserve Bank says "don't splurge".  As if a quarter point rate cut matters that much.  If you want to have a little splurge, go-ahead and have one. 

Good news is there are some more cuts coming as they took rates up too far. That made the Aussie$ strong and it nearly went par to the greenback.

Now it's good news as rates move over AU$1.20 and find a true rate in the AU$1.30 - AU$1.40 ball park as commonsense returns.

The Aussie two-speed economy will continue onwards and drag up weaker sectors in its wake.:aus:


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## noirua (10 September 2008)

Don't be sad and just remember, once again, Australia's position in the world. Thank goodness Europe and America and all their problems are far away.:aus:
Australia is increasingly truly Asian with increasing Chinese and even Indian connections.:aus:
Yes, ignore much, if not all of what you hear. The weaker Aussie$ will give a mountain of help, especially the commodity exporting sector. State revenues and royalties from coal will rocket in the next few years.
Be happy:aus:


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## noirua (13 September 2008)

Good grief!  Good grief!  Good grief!  Good grief!

Yes indeed, yes indeed, yes indeed, yes indeed, yes indeed, yes indeed.

Depression breeds even more depression, depression, depression, depression, depression, depression...

I'm not having any of that, Australia will not have a depression, Australia will not have a depression, Australia will not have a depression...:aus::aus::aus::aus:


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## noirua (16 September 2008)

Good news everywhere for those religiously following this thread.  No financial stocks and 70% to 80% in cash or short term fixed interest.  Not a problem I hear you say.

Australia is something special, if we take a lofty point of view:  If we don't, they appear personal or of town proportions and they are really a country wide matter. 

Remember, REMEMBER, the west is far away, another land. This is the area of Asia and the Far East. Trade will be more and more with China and other Asian countries. "Europe, America, Africa..." Where the hell are they? 

So remember the two speed economy is solidly in place.  Prices of exported coal, iron ore etc., may well have fallen, BUT in Aussie$ terms the fall is far less and coal is near its AU$ peak.

Interest rates will fall faster in Australia than expected and whilst parts of the world reel in agony. Remember alway, but always, fly the  :aus::aus::aus::aus::aus: - yes all five.


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## noirua (18 September 2008)

Hooray!  The Lloyds TSB takeover has been completed, £12.2bn (AU$28bn).  UK footsie is up 81.2 about 5 minutes ago and markets look quite stable.

Aussie is stronger against the greenback at AU$1.24. Brent crude at US$90.04 and gold at US$813.


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## noirua (19 September 2008)

...and the good news just keeps piling in. After a speech by George Bush, the Dow ended 430 points up.  The UK avoided a disaster because Lloyds TSB took over HBOS.

Now commonsense should prevail and yes, I think I heard, yes, "the little bell rang tonight, in good old New York".


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## Calliope (19 September 2008)

noirua said:


> ...and the good news just keeps piling in. After a speech by George Bush, the Dow ended 430 points up.  The UK avoided a disaster because Lloyds TSB took over HBOS.
> 
> Now commonsense should prevail and yes, I think I heard, yes, "the little bell rang tonight, in good old New York".




I am a relative newcomer to this forum (but not to the sharemarket) and I was considering opening a thread titled Optimism versus Pessimism, and then I thought your thread would fit the bill, and supporters seem scarce.

Last week I blundered on to home site of the pessimists. It was as if I had come across a nest of fireants in my garden. They thought I was being critical of them and after receiving a lecture from their leader *unk* they came swarming out of their nests shouting their mantra "good post unk" and spraying their venom to repel the dissident intruder. 

I was surprised to find such a thriving colony of doom cult followers in a Stock Forum. There is an antidote to their venom and it's  called *optimism*. This word to them is like a red rag to a  bull. I would encourage other optimists to take them on, before they infiltrate too many othes sites.

You know noirua, and the majority of posters know that without optimism a *stock forum* could not exist and we optimists must save it.


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## noirua (19 September 2008)

Calliope said:


> You know noirua, and the majority of posters know that without optimism a *stock forum* could not exist and we optimists must save it.




Yes indeed, so many websites and forums disappeared after the dot-com crash and the general bear market that followed it.  Fortunately ASF has a lot more going for it than just stocks and shares. So there are other things to do here during the leaner times.

Hopefully those who have not voted yet at:  http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html
are about to do so.


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## noirua (19 September 2008)

Good news romps in as the UK Footsie jumps 6.7% in early trading, following the US plan to mop up toxic mortgage debt.


Have you voted yet at http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html
You're going to vote for Aussie Stock Forums, that's good news as well - great*****


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## noirua (20 September 2008)

noirua said:


> Good news romps in as the UK Footsie jumps 6.7% in early trading, following the US plan to mop up toxic mortgage debt.
> 
> 
> Have you voted yet at http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html
> You're going to vote for Aussie Stock Forums, that's good news as well - great*****




footsie now up 8.5% after 9.7%.  By the way.  Have you put in your much needed vote at the above link.  Your a *


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## noirua (20 September 2008)

Good news, yes, but not as greater news as some think. So, volatility looks like continuing but remain happy on those down days. 

While you wait for Monday you can pop over to this ural, if you like http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html
A vote for "Aussie Stock Forums" would be in order and make our day, thanks

2% points behind still, shucks.


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## Calliope (20 September 2008)

The good news is that the government has decided to follow the UK and USA and crakckdown on short-selling. As a worried shareholder I have watched for weeks now as the Suncorp short-sellers have nearly driven it into the ground.


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## noirua (21 September 2008)

Calliope said:


> The good news is that the government has decided to follow the UK and USA and crakckdown on short-selling. As a worried shareholder I have watched for weeks now as the Suncorp short-sellers have nearly driven it into the ground.




These people can crash even the best companies. Sometimes they short on more shares than there are available to trade. Good news is that many fail to cover and if stock is not there then they're bankrupt.

Individual small guys are no real problem in this market.  The problem is with groups of people who act together on emails sent out.  Crashing a stock makes the companies lenders panick and if loans are called in the shorters have triumphed.


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## noirua (22 September 2008)

A new dawn and a new era as the shorter takes the blame for all the world financial problems.
Someone has to and that is that basically.


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## noirua (25 September 2008)

Now all you guys, don't thou thee worry at all.  All of Pres George Bush's ideas on this new package will be passed.  The Democrats will claim victory, fair enough, and as long as they vote and sign, who cares.:aus:


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## noirua (30 September 2008)

HOW LUCKY IS THAT!  The Dow finished down 777.7, four lucky sevens in a row at the close, NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE.

Spread your wings over the sectors as there has never been such opportunities since 1987/88 and 1975/76 before that  Pick carefully, time for the lucky ones to make a fortune.


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## noirua (30 September 2008)

noirua said:


> HOW LUCKY IS THAT!  The Dow finished down 777.7, four lucky sevens in a row at the close, NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE.
> 
> Spread your wings over the sectors as there has never been such opportunities since 1987/88 and 1975/76 before that  Pick carefully, time for the lucky ones to make a fortune.




Don't get in a tizzy over the market action.  At the start of 1976 the world was coming to an end. 
I've been buying all day yesterday, chances like this don't come often, imho.


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## noirua (7 October 2008)

I haven't looked at the stock prices yet, just the Aussie.  What do I see?  Well, an exchange rate of AU$1.40 to the greenback. What a great dose of medicine to the mining exporters, as it's all about the number of AUSSIE dollars you get per tonne or, of course, the troy ounce as far as gold is concerned.

Look for the blue lining and you'll find it.  Keep calm my friend, keep calm - good luck.


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## JTLP (7 October 2008)

Noirua...dont you think the lower aussie dollar has something to do with decreasing demand...hence that yes mining exports will be cheaper..but there will be less with a slowing economy...


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## noirua (7 October 2008)

JTLP said:


> Noirua...dont you think the lower aussie dollar has something to do with decreasing demand...hence that yes mining exports will be cheaper..but there will be less with a slowing economy...



Hi JTLP, the sell down of the Aussie Dollar, at the pace it has been, is more likely to be foreigners exiting resource stocks and repatriating funds. I always thought interest rates should have been lower, despite inflation pressure, and this would have stopped the sudden and prolonged strength of the Aussie.

Mining export prices will be kept high in Aussie Dollar terms and that should help most mining producers.  Eventually, imho, this fact should hit home and mining PRODUCERS may well recover about half of their losses.


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## noirua (8 October 2008)

You look around the Aussie market and look carefully at bombed out stocks. Time now to do your homework, burn the midnight hours, opportunities amongst the carnage. Avoiding everything financial, leave that for Governments.


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## noirua (8 October 2008)

The exchange rate against the greenback is now AU$1.468 to US$1.  Take note that this buffer will help mining producers and particularly coal PRODUCERS. 
Despite the sudden withdrawal of cash from Australia as people take their money off the table, this country looks to be able to come out of this far better than most.


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## noirua (11 October 2008)

Seems like a lot of good news washing around. Interest rates going down, oil is going down in price. Miners will gain from oil costs decreasing and the tanking Aussie$.
The Dow Jones finished just 122 down after 700 and the Nasdaq up 4.
Looking good for Monday, may open early, who knows. Lazy lot at the ASX, should open at 8am.


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## noirua (18 October 2008)

I'm getting thoroughly aggrieved by all the negative sentiment by so many, may their carrots grow twisted and pumpkins stay weedy small.

Anyway, the DOW 30 is recovering from being down earlier and the FTSE 100 is up 5%. Inter-bank rates are well down.

Smile and be happy as all is well and any problems will come out in the wash. Be patient, be strong of mind and do not panic.:aus:


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## Bill M (23 October 2008)

Hello noirua, nice to see someone with some positive posts. Here is my pic for the day and I fully agree with it.


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## noirua (25 October 2008)

Yes indeed Bill M, Buy Australia. Commodity stocks, principally invested in Australia, are set to perform far better than expected due to the tanking Aussie. Foreign dumpers of stock have thrown up remarkably cheap shares, IMHO.


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## noirua (9 November 2008)

As interest rates fall, interest rate returns on shares look more attractive. How to buy, well, drip feed or dollar cost average.


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## noirua (10 November 2008)

noirua said:


> As interest rates fall, interest rate returns on shares look more attractive. How to buy, well, drip feed or dollar cost average.



Should see mortgage rates below 5% during 2009.


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## noirua (10 November 2008)

After the news about the China stimulus package and interest rate reductions, throughout the world, times look set to improve Australia wise. Time to look closely at the bombed out mining sector, if you haven't already.


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## noirua (18 November 2008)

With interest rates and inflation set to fall sharply there will be comparisons with interest rates versus the returns on shares.  Don't miss the turn!


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## noirua (20 November 2008)

The Aussie continues to tank at US$0.637 (AU$1.569 reverse) to the US$1.  Will be good news for the ailing mining sector at US$0.588 (AU$1.70), should come soon.


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## noirua (21 November 2008)

"Shiver me timbers"!  I look around and see Australia:aus: has a bright and great future. Lots of people are turning their investments into cash due to fear, and no matter what the price, "what silly Billies".

Remain calm and see the advantages for so many companies as the Aussie falls to AU$0.62 to the greenback.


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## noirua (22 November 2008)

The Dow is 494 points up as Barack Obama names Timothy Geithner as Head of the Federal Reserve Bank.

Not sure why every one appears depressed at the markets that have been driven down by the supposed desperate news. I've continued buying stocks and remain optimistic and reached on Friday, a position of 30% invested in shares, the highest my own rules allow me to be. 

I'm not sure who's cashing in at these levels?


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## noirua (25 November 2008)

Boom town rats in London with all major stocks, including Banks and miners way up. 
BHP up 22%, Anglo American up 23%, Vedanta up 12%, Xstrata up 23%.


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## noirua (15 December 2008)

It does seem as if the bad news is not as bad as it was before.  That is, we seem to be running out of bad enough news in the mining sector.  So, even though the news is and will continue bad, and may be very bad, it's not quite so very bad.
If you have descended to the bottom of a hole, you can descend no further. Thus, it's bad news being at the bottom of the hole and you may have a sore head, at least you can sit there suffering quietly in the knowledge it is only up from here.


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## Big_Daz (19 December 2008)

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.ht...//media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vACW8GD4gjKM.asf

Doll is predicting double digit returns on equities in 2009. We can only hope!!!


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## noirua (9 January 2009)

Big_Daz said:


> http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.ht...//media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vACW8GD4gjKM.asf
> 
> Doll is predicting double digit returns on equities in 2009. We can only hope!!!



May not be far off, as interest rates tumble in Australia.  Even though dividends will be cut completely or reduced in many cases, we should see Aus rates at 3% by May and down to 1.5% by October.
Looking good now for the ASX200 that may end 2009 around 4,500 - 4,700.


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## noirua (13 January 2009)

Only good news around now is the prospect of very low interest rates indeed.  If commodity prices continue to fall at a great pace, then Aussie rates may hit zero this year.  

What good news then?  Once again the reminder that dividends on the ASX200 will eventually be well above interest rates. This situation may then see stocks, overall, as a cheap option.


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## noirua (7 February 2009)

The Dow is up over 200 points in the States and Monday should point to a healthy rise in the ASX. 

Good news or not, probably good.  Europe is in disarray as French President Nicolas Sarkozy has a go at UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Seems he's doing it all wrong reducing tax and giveaways. UK says it was in French and the true meaning was lost in translation. UK would like all of Europe to speak English and the French want all written word in their language.

Germany supports France, so now each other country will take sides and maybe there will be a good old bust up.


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## shag (10 February 2009)

i'd say the good news is the dow didnt tank like it often does severely after a couple of rises.
maybe it will tank when the bad bank bill is passed.
i wonder how long this bear rally will last if u can call it that....
i guess the other good news is if this bad bank plan actually works sort of quickish in the states, then maybe they can get the same fellas to crack fusion, cancer, arthritis etc next....


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## noirua (8 March 2009)

Is there any good news?  For the thoughtful and brave there certainly is.  Once companies that have purchased coal, iron ore etc., at high prices, have run through these stocks, they will rebuild these stocks very cheaply indeed.  This will suddenly reduce prices and the fall will be dramatic.

How you position yourself in markets is completely up to you.  The opportunities are not unique as we have been here before and always survived despite the doom and gloom.


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## MR. (8 March 2009)

noirua said:


> Remain calm and see the advantages for so many companies as the Aussie falls to AU$0.62 to the greenback.




Higher returns for Australian exporters per unit.

Higher costs for imports 
Products are bought from China in USD's. 
However some of these products will be made in Australia once again


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## Bill M (11 March 2009)

Plenty of good news around for non gloom and doomers. Currently there are plenty of share purchase plans around for those long term holders. Time to get involved if you can.

WES offered at $13.50, today $17.50.......kerchinck!

WBC offered at at $16 wound down to $15.24 and now $16.87.....kerchinck!

CBA offered at $26 todays price $28.61................kerchinck!

next 

IAG.......offered at $3 but wait we still have time. Current price $3.22

Plenty of opportunities to make money if you keep your wits about you. Good luck all.


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## Bill M (28 March 2009)

Bill M said:


> IAG.......offered at $3 but wait we still have time. Current price $3.22
> 
> Plenty of opportunities to make money if you keep your wits about you. Good luck all.




This ones in the bag too now, closed at $3.39 yesterday. What's next.... plenty of hybrids around trading under their face value that need to be bought back by the parent company soon, may be worth a look, so many bargains right now.


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## Bill M (20 October 2009)

What's going on noirua? Haven't heard from you in a while, you ok? Still about? Thought there would be plenty of good news about... Markets up 55% from it's lows and my bank shares have doubled and we didn't get a recession. Gold has shot up over a $1,000 USD as well


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## nunthewiser (20 October 2009)

Well done Bill ............ right there in black and white , no hindsight to it


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## Bill M (20 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> Well done Bill ............ right there in black and white , no hindsight to it



Thanks mate, and in all honesty I have in the last 2 weeks sold out of half of all my stocks to finance a property purchase. This was more a lifestyle choice rather than financial but it could quite end up to my financial benefit if the market capitulates, cheers.


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## noirua (3 June 2010)

Good news as the NYSE tries once again to breakout of this false bear market.  Look at most stock market indexes and they're lower than the 9 - 11 year low points - "ARE STOCKS CHEAP AS CHIPS???", I whisper loudly, "I heard the little bell ring today, I believe markets are about to rocket".


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