# When will the bear go away?



## beamstas (23 October 2008)

Simple question 
When do *you* think we will see the bull again


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## Spaghetti (23 October 2008)

*Re: When will the bear go away*

Generally need to wait for a new generation who regard this period as history so are not emotionally affected/sacred by it. Maybe 10 years.


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## Mr Capital (23 October 2008)

*Re: When will the bear go away*

Soon hopefully, wishful thinking though


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## ROE (23 October 2008)

When the debt is clear to a sensible level 

Watch a doco called *in debt we trust* and you realize equity in your house is not an asset but a form of debt, very cleverly marketing...so those who used those equity as an ATM machine or to fuel further purchase shares and property will be in for one hell of a shock.

someone who watched that Doco 2 years ago in 2005 would have got out
Australia is heading down that path.


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## Rainmaker2000 (23 October 2008)

It's a good comparison with housing......people may hate shares at the moment but the fact is that many sound companies are paying 15% upwards in dividends....

I sure would want to own an asset like that rather than a home precariously held up by a actual or notional 3% yeild

Let the bear go on for 10 years I say........we'll stage a franking credit revolution


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## Glen48 (23 October 2008)

ASX ORG seem to be holding up ok IF you are game...In USSA the yanks are madly saving ( too late now) and therefore the place is heading into a deeper recession as no one is spending.
The Indian call centres are busy ringing Yanks ask for money...to pay of their debt such as cards...much be good in India hearing the Worlds wealthiest population crying on the phone saying they can't pay.
This is only just starting here Iron is down to 200 a Ton from 1250. Toy makers in China are going broke  which means now one is ordering for Xmas in OZ. Domino's Pizza in USA are down 25% guess soon they will take B/cards on a $3.50 special.
The Bear is here and all his mates are coming as well we will all be bare soon.


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## beamstas (23 October 2008)

ROE said:


> When the debt is clear to a sensible level
> 
> Watch a doco called *in debt we trust* and you realize equity in your house is not an asset but a form of debt, very cleverly marketing...so those who used those equity as an ATM machine or to fuel further purchase shares and property will be in for one hell of a shock.
> 
> ...





Im 19 and have no debt


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## Aussiejeff (23 October 2008)

beamstas said:


> Im 19 and have no debt




Your country is deep in debt....


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## seasprite (23 October 2008)

beamstas said:


> Simple question
> When do *you* think we will see the bull again




When people refuse to sell at a loss and have a change of attitude.


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## tech/a (23 October 2008)

To answer this we must determine what would qualify as a return of the bull.

I'll classify my own below.

I'm sure we wont see highs above the highest high of 6880 for many years 5-7.
So if that is the return of the bull then it will be a while.

My view is we will see ranging for many years between the bottom (Thats not in yet) and that top.Its possible that could be a range of 3000 points or more.
So in that time we can expect some shots at the old high possibly 3 good ones and more that stumble.The low will be tested as well and I think quite possibly when most think the worst is over.

I think we will see an initail slowing or consolidation toward a bottom.
There will be 1 or 2 sectors which show strength and these will have the job of pulling the index along.
There will be outstanding individual moves and trends but to the long side they will be rare.
Volume will temper and I feel there will be very boring periods of trading with nothing doing very much at all.Thats when you'll see shorting return.

Its not going to be easy even with a halt of the running bear---he will remain prowling around the index chasing off would be bulls when you least expect him.


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## johenmo (23 October 2008)

ROE said:


> ...you realize equity in your house is not an asset but a form of debt, very cleverly marketing...




My understanding/taking is an asset earns and anything else is not an asset.  So the usual family house is not an assest, or a poorly performing one.  

Of course, it depends on when you sell and buy.  Our best gain is 100% over 4 years, and the worst is 10% loss over 7 years.  And that's not taking lopportunity loss or time or inflation into account.

So I agree with the above.  BUT... with most people as they are (and as we were for a long time) it's better to have a slightly appreciating assest than no asset at all.

All depends on each set of circumstances.

As for the bear, I think it's settling in for the "winter of our discontent" and there's too many variables to be able to accurately predict  a bottom.  But I'll say 1 - 2 years to bottom out.


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## mfp (23 October 2008)

tech/a said:


> To answer this we must determine what would qualify as a return of the bull.
> 
> I'll classify my own below.
> 
> ...




That is the most intelligent (and most probably correct) analysis I have seen yet, of what to expect of our market over coming years. Well done!


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## Smurf1976 (23 October 2008)

I've long held the view that the US in particular entered a secular bear market nearly 9 years ago and that we won't see sustained upward moves there until it's over. Historically, they've taken 15 - 20 years and I can see no reason for this one to be any quicker.

So the second half of next decade would be my guess for the broad market. Of course some stocks will do very well long before then and the task is to identify which ones and invest accordingly. 

For the traders, some of the strongest bull moves happen in bear markets (as we've seen recently) so lots of opportunities both short and medium term for traders. 

I'll become a bull when the p/e for the broad market (ie the index) is around 7 - 8 and most people have lost interest in shares. That's the P/E calculated on trailing earnings by the way, not some fancy model or forecast earnings. Until then I'll stick to sectors likely to do well and ignore the rest.


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## MRC & Co (23 October 2008)

Got a coin?

To be honest, most people don't even understand the whole of the financial crisis (including myself), it just cuts so deep into so many areas, from your simple mortgages to all kinds of derivative products. 

Who knows when all of this will be unwound and what the consequences will be?

Could last a year or two, could last many decades to come (see Japan and the Nikkei or the DOW in the late 1800s early-mid 1900s).  



Gotta learn to trade IMHO.  "Investing" is a dangerous game these days.


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## electronicmaster (23 October 2008)

When will the bear go away?

The pros tell me that it depends on the LIBOR (3 Month and Overnight)  and the TED_spread.

They all need to be down to around or under 1% to 1.5% each (or so).

All numbers have been going down, but not as fast as expected (since the US bailout plan):-

The three links below shows you all LIBOR and TED_Spread charts : -

LIBOR overnight

LIBOR 3 Monthly

TED_Spread

It is also reported that developing nations might need six years or so to pay off their credit dept. 

So that might be the "at best" indicator on how long it might take for the markets to recover.

Any one like to add corrections or add to this?


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## shulink (24 October 2008)

probably not in a short time. The bear is going to stay for at least another few months.


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## Kauri (24 October 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Got a coin?
> 
> To be honest, most people don't even understand the whole of the financial crisis (including myself), it just cuts so deep into so many areas, from your simple mortgages to all kinds of derivative products.
> 
> ...





  the "credit tsunami" that is crushing the US economy, as Greenspan said today, looks like it will continue to travel inland and deeper into the real economy, forcing more liquidation of equity positions and other de-leveraging, which will in turn force further unwinding of currency carry trades .  
    The *latest rescue plan being bandied about in Washington* is the backing of bank loans. Where it ends, no one knows. The bottom line is that it could take years to totally dig out from the debt accumulated with the help of extremely low lending standards and cheap money. Are equity prices cheap? Perhaps that will prove to be the case, but perhaps not in the context of a few or several more quarters of economic contraction and tighter lending standards.

 Cheers
...........Kauri


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## Aussiejeff (24 October 2008)

With governments panicking and going deeeeep into the red all over the planet in an effort to (firstly) save their sorry political a$$e$ and (secondly) to try and save the a$$e$ of their rich banker mates, I suspect we are in un-chartable waters from the overall world perspective.

It matters little if a country here or there manages to "lift" it's own economy a little if 3rd world and developing economies (like Argentina, Brazil, Pakistan?) or smaller Euro countries keel over and go bankrupt. 

Then there are the African "economies". 

Oh, sure - the IMF will save them all. Right. How? Most likely by bankrupting its own future effectiveness by blowing all it's current and future funds in the same way that national governments are now hocking their future wealth and productivity (no money in the future funds kitty = no new development in the short to medium terms).

The way I see it, "real" economies (day to day business in the street) have relatively speaking been barely affected to this point. I think the next 6-12 months is going to hurt real bad with many companies going to the wall with soaring unemployment also on the cards. 

I hope I'm completely wrong, but I predict Chief Running Bear will become so gorged on crap results by the end of '09 that he will develop a near terminal case of *STAGFLATION*. That's when the :fan  :fan  :fan


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## gfresh (24 October 2008)

Yes, was amusing to read some crap suggesting emerging economies were still strong, then I hear Ukraine, Argentina, Pakistan, Belarus are all seeking IMF assistance. 

I don't think it will be at least until 2012 that we resume some kind of steady upward movement, a true strong bull market maybe not until 2015.


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## enigmatic (24 October 2008)

I get slightly confused with these Bear and bull market.
Obviously from looking at any trend you can see a bear and a bull in any minute time frame. 
I have been hearing alot of people saying we have had 5 years of a bull and that we can't expect the bear to be finished for atleast 18months.
But if you look at a trend since 1925 it looks like the DOW has had Bear 10-20years and bull 5-10years does that mean that we are 11years into the bear market. July 1997 to October 2008 with an expected 0-9years left of horizontal moment before a 5-10 year Bull.
It just seems to me that we can read anything from a trend as long as we look at it from varying view points.

I personaly think the Bear will end in by the end of 2009- Mid 2010 by that time all the figures will be compared to the slump of 2008 rather then the slow decline of 2007.


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## treefrog (24 October 2008)

Smurf1976 said:


> I've long held the view that the US in particular entered a secular bear market nearly 9 years ago and that we won't see sustained upward moves there until it's over. Historically, they've taken 15 - 20 years and I can see no reason for this one to be any quicker.
> 
> So the second half of next decade would be my guess for the broad market. Of course some stocks will do very well long before then and the task is to identify which ones and invest accordingly.
> 
> ...




this is some of the best actionable advice you will get - and it will be investable/tradeable.
many "became familiar" with the markets during the recent bull run when a drover's dog could make good money in the market - everything was UP (well almost)
you need to retreat to sectors (this is an excellent forum except for sector speak - its one of the things this forum does not do well)
and trading/investing through sector analysis means as Smurf indicates - concentrate on which sectors are running and then seek out the performing shares that are pulling the sector with them


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## tech/a (24 October 2008)

The problem always has been with sector analysis----getting alerted early enough to take advantage of any move.

It takes a fair amount of movement in a few stocks to alert that a sector is on the move.

By the time its clear in most cases the move your looking for is on the chart.

Like most "Truism" theories practical application in the real world isnt as plain and simple as everyone thinks.

Ive done a lot of work on this Top down approach but really think you need a way to identify those sectors EMERGING not outpreforming.

Interested in any techniques others have found work for this---or any success at all as I'm yet to find an appreciable difference.


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## MS+Tradesim (24 October 2008)

Sector analysis made easy.


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## Knobby22 (24 October 2008)

My 5 year old was watching Playschool and it gave me the shivers!

" There's a bear in there..."


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## Aussiejeff (24 October 2008)

Knobby22 said:


> My 5 year old was watching Playschool and it gave me the shivers!
> 
> " There's a bear in there..."




Not just any bear. The *Great Global Bear*.

The creation of this feral behemoth is obviously one of the prices we have to pay for a mad-scientist-like policy of "globalization" at any cost, by all the world's "civilised" nations.

Remember? All that mantra about Globalization having SOOOO many benefits for wealth creation? Pity no-one took the time to figure out during the fiscal gold-rush what might happen if a bunch of thieving ratbags and highwaymen (read: uber companies & banking organisations) ganged together and abused the whole globalization idea for their own profit and benefit  - with all risk to be carried by the dumb suckers (hey, that's us!) in Mainstreet.

Well. You can now take the Globalization Genie (who spawned the Great Global Bear) and shove 'im where the sun don't shine. Don't let 'im back out unless he's chained and hogtied.....


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