# Market Slide?



## el_ninj0 (23 March 2005)

Anyone know why the market has fallen a by close to 50 points today?


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## TjamesX (23 March 2005)

My guess is overnight US interest rates and comments from Greenspan of more to come


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## el_ninj0 (23 March 2005)

TjamesX said:
			
		

> My guess is overnight US interest rates and comments from Greenspan of more to come




US interest rates went up?


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## Jay-684 (23 March 2005)

check out the Australian Market section of tradingroom.com.au it explains it pretty well.

I however have managed to lose over 2.5% in the past 2 days, not happy at all. I spose it had to happen some time though, after the run we've had.

Would this perhaps be a good time to buy in, as the market may still have legs in it, and you could buy at todays discounted prices?


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## el_ninj0 (23 March 2005)

Jay-684 said:
			
		

> Would this perhaps be a good time to buy in, as the market may still have legs in it, and you could buy at todays discounted prices?




Thats what I was planning on doing, but i didn't get home early enough to place a decent bid on anything. Got home about half an hour to late to buy RTM at 14cents. Went up to 15.5 cents about 30 mins later.


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## Jay-684 (23 March 2005)

likewise. I was thinking of getting in tomorrow morning, however with only $1000 to play with in cash right now, there's really no point


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## el_ninj0 (23 March 2005)

Jay-684 said:
			
		

> likewise. I was thinking of getting in tomorrow morning, however with only $1000 to play with in cash right now, there's really no point




I think the price will drop slightly further tommorow and then make a rise in the arvo again anyway. So hopefully I can make use of that.

Im thinking mabey buy at 13 cents and hold tommorow, till it reaches its predicted value of 23-24cps.


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## Smurf1976 (23 March 2005)

I'm somewhat worried that the market reacted the way it did to the US rate rise. Previous rises were largely ignored but certainly wasn't. And Australia's market was hit far harder than the US markets in % terms. 

Looks like the interest rate rises are starting to have an impact. This was, after all, NOT an unexpected rise in interest rates. That is the bit that has me worried, the fact that it was an expected event which triggered the slide. Have people (in general, not referring to those on this forum) been in denial up to this point about interest rate rises?

I have managed to lose close to 7% in the past few days... Fortunately my currency trades (I also trade forex) have substantially offset this otherwise I would be most unhappy.

I think some general caution is warranted going forward since more rate rises are likely.


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## DTM (23 March 2005)

Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> I'm somewhat worried that the market reacted the way it did to the US rate rise. Previous rises were largely ignored but certainly wasn't. And Australia's market was hit far harder than the US markets in % terms.
> 
> Looks like the interest rate rises are starting to have an impact. This was, after all, NOT an unexpected rise in interest rates. That is the bit that has me worried, the fact that it was an expected event which triggered the slide. Have people (in general, not referring to those on this forum) been in denial up to this point about interest rate rises?
> 
> ...




Whoa, what a day.  I was tempted to also buy at the end of the day but held back because of the size of the correction.  Now that we've had a major correction, it will be interesting to see if this is the beginning of the end..., or because it was a major correction, we will continue on our merry way up again.  A lot will depend on what the Reserve Bank does in April.

Smurf, what currency pairings are you in?


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## Smurf1976 (24 March 2005)

DTM said:
			
		

> Smurf, what currency pairings are you in?




At present I am short AUD / long USD (Australia / US Dollar).

I am well aware that this runs very much contrary to popular opinion which is bearish on USD.  

That is the only position I have at this time although I have been paying considerable attention to the fundamentals affecting GBP (Pound) and NZD (New Zealand). I have held positions in other currencies in the past.

I only trade longer term forex moves although I do use short term TA to time entry / exit. I also use shorter term TA to scale in / out of a position.


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## krisbarry (24 March 2005)

It was predicted.....ASX follows the housing market, thats flat/or falling and so will the ASX.  I did hear that it would go as high as 4300 then crash/correct.  Appears to be happening already!

Like the housing market you cannot expect to gain 25% per year.

* Interests rates are going up world-wide,
* Australia's Economy is slowing
* Record High Oil Prices
* High Australia Dollar

All these factors will slow/crash the recent ASX run.


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## el_ninj0 (24 March 2005)

krisbarry said:
			
		

> All these factors will slow/crash the recent ASX run.




So you think there is more of a fall for the ASX today?


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## krisbarry (24 March 2005)

Most Certainly


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## el_ninj0 (24 March 2005)

krisbarry said:
			
		

> Most Certainly



Only in the main stocks like the banks really though.
I think there was an overreaction yesterday to that US interest rates possibly going up announcement.
There will be atleast somekind of a comeback today, possibly just less of a drop than yesterday, but definetely some evening out will occur.


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## tech/a (24 March 2005)

Nick Radge is a bit of an Elliot Wave expert.

Although the chart isnt showing Elliot wave the measured move analysis is pretty interesting.

The first chart is the SPI.

Second is his Elliot Wave veiw of the S&P 500 which is in his veiw the weakest with the US economy with terribly low interest rates it is going to be a long while before we see growth.With its debt being the biggest threat to its economy.Its nicks veiw that there could possibly be a 50bpc rate rise in Aust to curb inflationary growth.
Lock those loans down!


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## el_ninj0 (28 March 2005)

According to those charts tech/a posted, this is either a break before the rise and then another fall, or its the start of the big fall. Just wanted to ask the few obvious question for those who want to know.

How long do we predict this will fall for?

What will be the major securities affected by this fall?

Will resource stocks be affected in a major way even if the chinese market holds up?

When it does stop falling, what will the value of the All Ords be?


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