# PBG - Pacific Brands



## Ann (26 December 2005)

There may be opportunities for a range trade upward journey with PBG.....


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## Ann (28 December 2005)

*Re: PBG - Pacific Brands Limited*

So far so good, looks as though it is at home in the range!..... :


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## Buster (23 February 2007)

Ann,

Taken off quite dramatically over the last few days.. Is this purely on the Yakka buy news, or is there something else in the wind that I'm not privvy too??

Cheers,

Buster


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## dan-o (25 June 2008)

What do people think of this stock? Yielding close to 10% fully franked, business seems recession proof selling basics and essentials...


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## Gunlom (25 June 2008)

I like PBG as a long term hold, I've picked it up at $1.95, this will be a mainstay of my income portfolio for many years to come, even if eps and dps drop abit this is still a company that is gunna sell alot of products of the next few years.

plus they are on the right side of a high US dollar.

If they return to there high of almost $4,  anytime in the next 2-5 years, it's be a 100% return plus good franked dividends

so as a long term hold, they are a winner in my view.


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## CAB SAV (26 June 2008)

Hi, If I had room, may consider adding to long term portfolio.
A Strong aussie dollar helps this company and the brands it carries are strong. Good yield.
Citi have upgraded their 12mth target price to $2.85


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## dan-o (10 November 2008)

Anyone know why this has been caned so hard? The fall in the AUD? I have heard of this as a good defensive stock but was surprised over weekend to see how low SP has fallen


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## Boggo (10 November 2008)

I am doing a bit of short term trading on PBG, bought last week at 1.08, stopped out at 1.13.
Back in again today at 1.145, tight stop, target area of 1.38 provided the rest of the world stays up for a while.


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## Boggo (10 November 2008)

Stopped out, small loss.

Tight stops are a necessity in the current environment, would rather be out than sitting just above a stop overnight at the moment.

If they run up then pile in, turn down then bug out


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## urgalzmine (10 November 2008)

dan-o said:


> Anyone know why this has been caned so hard? The fall in the AUD? I have heard of this as a good defensive stock but was surprised over weekend to see how low SP has fallen




they are getting hammered because they import their stock/materials. so when the aussie dollar is down cost of products increase.


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## tommymac (25 November 2008)

urgalzmine said:


> they are getting hammered because they import their stock/materials. so when the aussie dollar is down cost of products increase.




Do you think it should be as low as it is? 

I'm sure that its level of debt has been a factor as well.


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## Justthinkin (5 December 2008)

I've been looking for a reason to hold PBG any longer... here is a short version of my thinking for what it's worth:

(a) Sales volumes will be under pressure for 2Q 08 and 1Q 09 whilst consumers get over their saddness. (Supposedly 1Q 08 good!). Maybe Xmas will surprise and interest rates kick in but market is seemingly not banking on it. Adjustment not enduring;
(b) Gross margins will be under pressure because of xchange rates. Some claw back opportunity in form of manufacturers margin (predominantly Chinese) and maybe keener logistics and distribution costs. First 6 months basically PBG immune given forex hedge strategy and significant inventories. Margins pressure therefore not overwhelming and PBG have some time (aka small window) to refine cost of goods sold composition... target as per results presentation. Possible impact will be neutral if can claw back non inventory pruchase costs (eg labour reductions, logistics)
(c) Interest rates could be an interesting variable in FY10... Possible impact 'exciting';
(d) Debt is not a pressing issue although approx 50% (circa $420M) needs to be rolled FY10. Suspect in interim bankers (who were instrumental in building current market mayhem!!) will want to play Jesus and 'monitor' non debt reduction initiatives aka distributions.
(e) Balance sheet full of intangibles but tidy...inventory holdings might get a workout in current year to maybe free up some cash. Great opportunity to challenge exsiting inventory logistics model and refine further... possible outcome positive;
(f) Management seem competent and are stable. Actively manage risks and appear transparent

On balance:

- uncertainty (and probably over reaction) in p&l consequential of forex and sales volumes;
- misplaced hysteria re debt rolls in mkt place;
- suspect fund manager (452 Capital - significant shareholder) is or has adjusted its position (down) (although no significant shareholder notice)

and so share price under pressure. Importantly, cannot see a catalyst for change in which case price likely to drift lower. A 'left field' buyout low probability given complexity of financing any deals. Nonetheless PBG in time will present as good value at current prices. 

For me, I can't stand limp share prices so I'll close out. The bottom is hard to pick!

Lastly, these are my thoughts, I am not an advisor and I've lost heavily in the market. Therefore Do your own research. Good sources include annual reports and attached presentation.

Good luck today


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## dan-o (9 December 2008)

After todays announcement of 6c dividend instead of 17c, the yield is still over 10%...
Anyone been buying?


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## Justthinkin (9 December 2008)

As per my previous note, I no longer hold PBG. Further, after this mornings announcement I put a price alert in place whereby I'll get an email in the event PBG falls below 35 cents. The note was disappointing... a better note would have included some affirmation of trading outcomes but instead it defers any further comment until Feb 2009. Either they don't know, they don't want to say or cannot say... it leaves too much room for guessing.

My 2 cents worth but do your own research


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## Justthinkin (23 December 2008)

PBG once was a good yielding stock. Now without much effort from the company, they have successfully decimated the share price. Announcements which basically say we'll cut the dividend and talk again in February next year are not very helpful in a skittish market.

I suspect that the downward momemntum shall continue despite anecdotal evidence that sales (domestic retail) may not be the sad sacks foreshadowed. The remaining uncertainty is the impact of forex.

What would an announcement about earnings be worth in terms of share price increment??? However ugly the result, it would at least tell the market that management were on top of the issues...oh well

Have a great day

DYOR


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## Gunlom (23 December 2008)

I think that part of the major problem with the SP at the moment is major shareholders are liquidating at any price driving the SP into the cellar, namely 452 capital.

This could mean they know or suspect something bad, or they having so many redemption themselves they have no choice but to sell down at any price themselves.

The large debt ($700b) for the yakka takeover is the elephant on the room for this company. There bankers have pushed back there 1st lot of refinancing (of$150m) from feb 09 to feb 10, from memory. I think they have the revenue and profit to handle it. Cutting the div by 60% means they have a another 50 mill odd to reduce debt. with underwriting there DRP, reducing stock levels. I think they are doing enough to be around.

The basic question I think is if you can see this company being around in the future, then a PE of 1.5 is a bargain. 

However investing is all about risk/return
There is definitely a chance this could go to the wall.
My gut feeling is they will survive (but I have been wrong before!!)

DYOR


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## CAB SAV (2 April 2009)

Got a hammering in General Chat thread when CEO announced 1850 jobs to go off shore. looked like a good opportunity to buy @ .15C 4 weeks ago. Finished at 31c today and not finished yet.


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## Family_Guy (2 April 2009)

Sure did, however i thought it was good 2 days ago at .25c when i jumped on. I just thought that as much as they have debt, they looked oversold to me. So i tipped it for the tipping comp this month as well as buying......worked for me with my last months tip on AIO, same deal, debt but way oversold.


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## CAB SAV (6 April 2009)

Someone has been buying a lot of Jocks & Socks today, hit .445c!
Maybe shorters have put the skids on and need more jocks.


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## michael_selway (6 April 2009)

CAB SAV said:


> Someone has been buying a lot of Jocks & Socks today, hit .445c!
> Maybe shorters have put the skids on and need more jocks.




Hm nice bounce today

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 23.2 20.4 17.6 20.2 
DPS 17.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 








> Date: 13/3/2009
> Author: Simon Evans
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 43
> Pacific Brands has had to accept lower price rises than it wanted from retailers. It is thought that negotiations with retailers led to the average price rise of between five per cent and 10 per cent. The clothing company has been affected by the falling Australian currency as it imports about 75 per cent of its products.




thx

MS


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## trading_rookie (29 April 2009)

...wish I had the gonads to buy more of this when it went down to a low of 14c. Finished trading today at 69c. Nice return.


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## CAB SAV (4 May 2009)

CAB SAV said:


> Got a hammering in General Chat thread when CEO announced 1850 jobs to go off shore. looked like a good opportunity to buy @ .15C 4 weeks ago. Finished at 31c today and not finished yet.






CAB SAV said:


> Someone has been buying a lot of Jocks & Socks today, hit .445c!
> Maybe shorters have put the skids on and need more jocks.




Finished @ .81.5c after high of .84c. We all need fresh undies with this market. Hard to price now. Passed my target of 80c.


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## Tranquility (21 May 2009)

Hi All, 

PBG is currently doing some capital raising and has offered me a parcel of shares, at 0.60 each.  The currently share price is 0.785, so it sounds like a good offer to me. 

Does anyone know, from past experience, whether the share price tends to drop after revenue raising is completed or whether it keeps on slowly climbing?  I'm a little worried that once they release more shares into the market, demand will decrease, thereby lower the share price.

Thanks 

T


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## oldblue (21 May 2009)

It's very hard to generalise about this - it all depends on the company; the relative amount of the capital raising vis a vis issued capital; the reason for needing the money; the price at which it's offered; what happens in the market prior to and following the issue, etc.
I don't know anything about PBG but my approach has been that provided I'm comfortable with the circumstances ( as above) and as long as there is a good margin in the price, I'm prepared to go along and subscribe. In the cases of TSE and FBU which are the only ones I've been involved with recently its worked out pretty well. Whether this is mainly a case of fortuitous market conditions/timing it's hard to say.


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## Tranquility (21 May 2009)

It's a bit of a gamble... but buying any stock is 

The reasons for it and what they plan to do with the money seem pretty solid and will decrease the debt amount the owe, leaving them in a better position should the retail market decline.

They've done me well so far, I'm think I'm donna do it.

Thanks for your help


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## Riddick (22 July 2009)

*PBG- where to now*

Interested to hear folks thoughts on pacific brands. Has been creeping up the past few months, currently trading around $1. recent rights issue pretty much wiped out long term debt. P/E just over 5.

bought in at 18c so sitting on good gains.

whats the consensus for the rest of the year?


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## jonnohowe (22 July 2009)

*Re: PBG- where to now*



Riddick said:


> Interested to hear folks thoughts on pacific brands. Has been creeping up the past few months, currently trading around $1. recent rights issue pretty much wiped out long term debt. P/E just over 5.
> 
> bought in at 18c so sitting on good gains.
> 
> whats the consensus for the rest of the year?




Analysts reco is to BUY/HOLD. Most are confident with market outlook since the staff layoff and buget cuts. Still has good brands/campaigns and good team under management. Long term view on this stock would be appropriate, but if you got for .18c I'd be pretty happy with a 500% gain!


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## Riddick (26 July 2009)

*Re: PBG- where to now*



jonnohowe said:


> Analysts reco is to BUY/HOLD. Most are confident with market outlook since the staff layoff and buget cuts. Still has good brands/campaigns and good team under management. Long term view on this stock would be appropriate, but if you got for .18c I'd be pretty happy with a 500% gain!





They were my sentiments exactly. If I had real balls I would have picked it up when it was 14 cents... Thanks for your comment, always good to get a second opinion.


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## Riddick (2 October 2009)

Not much support for this company lately, which to be honest seems pretty wierd

* Low P/E
* debt under control and not due for maturity for over 12 months.
* finalising a restructure and moving forward into profitability
* strong brands across a range of consumer discretionary.
* strong leadership.
* assets and cash seem to value this stock at about $1.30?


keen to hear what the collective mind has to say?


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## satanoperca (2 October 2009)

Had three trades at this stock from $0.30 and final sell at 1.27.

Been waiting for a new entry point but the volume has dropped right down.

As to why, I have no idea.


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## Riddick (2 October 2009)

just not popular with the folks, most of which are probably at home or work right now wearing bonds undies...

I got in at 18 cents and have completed a number of trades around the 1.20 - 25 mark for some good profits. waiting for it to move before i opt back in.

for a company that has released all its bad news with blue skies (apparently) ahead you'd think some of the 3- 6mnth players would be interested.


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## satanoperca (2 October 2009)

Momentum starting to pickup again. Nice wedge forming. Could be a play again soon. Looking at the chart a bit of a sell of in the last month or so.


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## Riddick (2 October 2009)

satanoperca said:


> Momentum starting to pickup again. Nice wedge forming. Could be a play again soon. Looking at the chart a bit of a sell of in the last month or so.




nice work. I wonder how many people follow this particular stock? seems to have a bit of resistence at the 1.20 mark. head butted a few times and droped back.

the conditions of the last few weeks probably haven't helped either.


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## ROE (2 October 2009)

Riddick said:


> Not much support for this company lately, which to be honest seems pretty wierd
> 
> * Low P/E
> * debt under control and not due for maturity for over 12 months.
> ...




I avoid  chance of it going to corporate graveyard isn't out of a question 
plus it didn't even pass my first rule


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## Riddick (5 October 2009)

ROE said:


> I avoid  chance of it going to corporate graveyard isn't out of a question
> plus it didn't even pass my first rule





could you elaborate a little?  I can't see your 'corporate graveyard' reasoning in the next 12 months. I agree it can happen. it can happen to lots of companies.

also wouldn't mind knowing your first rule? education is the key to success.


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## steptoe88 (29 March 2010)

has everyone sold out of this? not a word for 6 months? i guess its a wait and see what happens as the directors plan evolves


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## irenebrisbane (9 April 2010)

I, too, would like to know if everyone has sold out and why it has gone so quiet lately.  We carried out a review of our stocks today and Pacific is on the doubtful list as to whether we keep or sell.  Any views from anyone?  Price today was $1.370.


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## steptoe88 (9 April 2010)

irenebrisbane said:


> I, too, would like to know if everyone has sold out and why it has gone so quiet lately.  We carried out a review of our stocks today and Pacific is on the doubtful list as to whether we keep or sell.  Any views from anyone?  Price today was $1.370.




For fear of ramping I will only say that I am happy to hold PBG, and based on their plans I am happy to wait and see.

___________________________________________


 please be aware that this is only my opinion it is not to be taken as advice or recommendation to buy sell or hold  any share in any Company, I am not an advisor.


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## lucifuge (9 June 2010)

I read today on "Investsmart" web page,  

"....PBG is a leading manager of a stable of widely recognised consumer brands. The group manufactures, sources, markets and distributes the brands primarily in Australia and New Zealand. *The company is however in the process of altering its strategic priorities by ceasing manufacturing and increasing direct sourcing from Asia.*...."

This seems to fly in the face of "Buy Australian". I had planned to buy this stock until I read this. Do others see this as a negative? Certainly their market grip is very strong in terms of supplying the major Aussie chains, but that single point worries me.


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## oldblue (10 June 2010)

I was under the impression that PBG had been steadilly increasing the proportion sourced from offshore for some time now.

Given Australian wage rates and the cost of production generally, isn't this an inevitable trend?


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## skc (22 December 2011)

Can someone explain why these guys are not falling like the rest of the retail stocks/

They can't be doing that well with those expensive underwear, expensive ad campaigns, price deflation at target/Kmart and rising raw materials cost.

I know they are doing a biggish buy back but you think management should probably conserve cash now as oppose to blow it...


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## oldblue (22 December 2011)

Not exactly a retailer, of course.

Perhaps they are still selling their stuff - supplying more to the on-line retailers and less to the bricks and mortar types.


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## skc (22 December 2011)

oldblue said:


> Not exactly a retailer, of course.
> 
> Perhaps they are still selling their stuff - supplying more to the on-line retailers and less to the bricks and mortar types.




Technically not a retailer but they've got to be as correlated to retail as any of the recent downgraders. 

I haven't seen what their channel mix but can't imagine online being a big one.


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## oldblue (23 December 2011)

skc said:


> Technically not a retailer but they've got to be as correlated to retail as any of the recent downgraders.
> 
> I haven't seen what their channel mix but can't imagine online being a big one.




That doesn't really matter if they're still supplying the on-line retailers. Only becomes a problem if consumers switch to buying foreign brands in preference to Bonds etc. What/any evidence of this ?

Disc: Not holding.


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## skc (10 January 2012)

skc said:


> Can someone explain why these guys are not falling like the rest of the retail stocks/
> 
> They can't be doing that well with those expensive underwear, expensive ad campaigns, price deflation at target/Kmart and rising raw materials cost.
> 
> I know they are doing a biggish buy back but you think management should probably conserve cash now as oppose to blow it...




Well... a takeover approach can do that.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/pacbrands-confirms-takeover-talks-with-kkr-20120110-1psb7.html

For the record PBG was floated in 2004 by private equity firm CVC for ~$1.5B. Now KKR wants to take it private again for $600m. 

However, it's hard to imgaine that the PBG brand as an investment is not somewhat tarnished so what's KKR's exit strategy?


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## brettc4 (14 October 2012)

*PBG - Pacific Brands Gorup*

After an awful 2 years, PBG has come off its recent low of $0.44, broke above a downtrend line and continued to move upwards. We have unfortunately been moved sideways for a couple of months and have now dropped below the uptrend. 
While we have broken below the uptrend, it has been on relatively poor volume. As such I expect the price to raise and test the trendline from the opposite side, volume will be important.

While a recent close below $0.56 didn't result in a sell off, I am concerned about another close below the $0.56 mark.


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## VSntchr (2 July 2015)

A decent day for PBG. Up a casual 51% on a profit upgrade! 
The gain seems a bit better than it really is, as the price is only back to where it traded  in April. It certainly looked like a victim of tax loss selling and speculation of a downgrade.


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## System (20 July 2016)

On July 19th, 2016, Pacific Brands Limited (PBG) was removed from the ASX's official list in accordance with Listing Rule 17.11, following implementation of the scheme of arrangement pursuant to which Hanesbrands  Inc., acquired all of the issued shares in the Company.


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