# MFG - Magellan Financial Group



## Boggo (17 June 2013)

Just wondering if this is ever going to run out of steam.
I don't hold, missed all the entries, been waiting for the next correction that doesn't seem to be going to eventuate.

(click to expand)


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## skc (17 June 2013)

Boggo said:


> Just wondering if this is ever going to run out of steam.
> I don't hold, missed all the entries, been waiting for the next correction that doesn't seem to be going to eventuate.




The most amazing stock. Share price is well ahead of earnings but with FUM growing at 10% a month the market seems to believe that there is a high certainty that the earnings will catch up in time.

Held this from $5ish and sold at $7ish when it started to wane a bit in Feb/March this year. Never found the right opportunity to re-enter.

I think $10 will hold it back for a while even just psychologically - unless the market puts on a few more 2% days like last Friday.


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## pavilion103 (17 June 2013)

I've been watching this one with interested and posted in the Hypothetical Trades Thread. It's the only micro consolidation pattern by a rising stock in recent weeks. This is only a short term setup for me. Entry was 9.51, stop now at break-even, as I'm cautious in this market. Interested to see if it goes beyond $10 or stalls.


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## RottenValue (17 June 2013)

I bought MFF, the LIC they run back in Mar 12 (still hold).

So I knew all about MFG back when it was selling for $1.70.  Thought it was way too expensive and decided to give it a miss.  As I have for the past 15 months now and still convinced is too expensive.  So no excuse other than personal stubbornness. 

At least MFF has doubled its price in that time so shouldn't complain too much.


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## Boggo (17 June 2013)

RottenValue said:


> So I knew all about MFG back when it was selling for $1.70.  Thought it was way too expensive and decided to give it a miss.  As I have for the past 15 months now and still convinced is too expensive.




I made the mistake of reading some funnymental garbage that said it was overpriced when it was around $1.40.
So much for that being a reliable factor in any decision


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## ft2tak (20 August 2013)

Something is happening behind the scenes. The current price of mid $11 won't stay around too much longer.


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## skc (22 August 2013)

Packer's sold his holding in MFG at $10.68. Now it's trading down ~7%.

The last time Packer sold his holding in EGP, everyone bought it off him got totally smoked.

On the other hand, Packer also sold his holding in SEK at $9.28, but that share is actually up a bit for the day.

May be a good opportunity to buy some MFG if one sees further growth ahead, esp if it was to fall back towards support at $10...


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## ft2tak (22 August 2013)

If America doesn't go into recession, she'll be right!

MFG is a strong performer, even if it achieves half of last year's performance, it will still be a strong performer.


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## tom82 (17 September 2013)

Are MFG and MFF LIC's or ETF's?

Thank you.


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## skc (17 September 2013)

tom82 said:


> Are MFG and MFF LIC's or ETF's?
> 
> Thank you.




MFG is a fund manager. MFF is a LIC.

Neither of them are ETFs.


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## tom82 (17 September 2013)

skc said:


> MFG is a fund manager. MFF is a LIC.
> 
> Neither of them are ETFs.




Ok, thanks for that.


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## ft2tak (24 September 2013)

it ran out of steam for now.


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## SeekingYields (8 October 2013)

It has lost nearly 10% in the past 3 trading days.


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## piggybank (21 February 2014)

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## notting (28 January 2015)

Wanted to short it this morning, forgot, then noticed it was down about 6% at lunch.
Got back to my computer now market is closed and it's up slightly.
Reasons for wanting to short it is because it's highly leveraged to market sentiment and what Microsoft did in the US last night made me think - The one leg table is about to fall over because the US dollar is going to kill the US recovery and it looked like the first shoe to drop along with the big CAT.
See what happens tonight!


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## skc (28 January 2015)

notting said:


> Wanted to short it this morning, forgot, then noticed it was down about 6% at lunch.
> Got back to my computer now market is closed and it's up slightly.
> Reasons for wanting to short it is because it's highly leveraged to market sentiment and what Microsoft did in the US last night made me think - The one leg table is about to fall over because the US dollar is going to kill the US recovery and it looked like the first shoe to drop along with the big CAT.
> See what happens tonight!




Your data's a bit off. Intraday low of $18.45 around 10:28am, a fall of 3.15% from yesterday's close of $19.05.


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## notting (13 February 2015)

On a day when the market is having an absolute cracker morning and financials are all performing, MFG down 2% as I write.
Odd since it's the most bullish of them all in the current environment.
Profit taking? Bit odd.


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## notting (11 August 2015)

This had become my biggest holding over the last 2 months.
Very happy with the results.


> Funds under management up  55% to $36.4 billion
> • Net profit up 110% to $174.3 million
> • Fully diluted EPS up 108% to 101.8 cents
> • Dividends (interim and final) up 96% to 74.9 cents per share fully franked


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## Greybeard (25 March 2016)

Hi there
Just joined the forum...
This thread is quite old so not sure if anyone is interested in MFG at the moment but...

I've been swing trading MFG for fun with 150 shares since July and have made around 30% after fees and not including the dividend. Trouble is if I had bought and held I would have made the same $$$ but I guess that it wouldn't have been as much fun. Hind sight is of course always 20/20 so I sold when it looked like the right times to bail, although I hung on a bit too long at the peak of the big run up. I currently have no position in MFG but am watching with interest and my trigger finger is getting itchy...
The share price is currently well off its peak at $22.23 and has been consolidating for the past week or more and IMHO it will eventually break out and judging from the past will probably be on a big price and volume jump. Needless to say the move could be up or down so I plan to watch to see which way the big $$$ is pushing it. I reckon I can always short the stock via CFD's if the move is down and the testosterone is in abundance...
Fun and games...
Cheers Greybeard


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## greggles (9 August 2018)

Magellan Financial Group up 16.20% to $28.05 so far today after announcing that their after-tax profit increased by 37% to $268.9 million for the 12 months to 30 June 2018. 

The total dividends for the 2018 financial year of $1.345 per share represent a 57% increase over the total dividends for the prior year.






Things seem to be looking up for MFG. The share price is now around 12 month highs and I doubt today's move north will stop here. Improving sentiment should see the share price head higher in the short term.


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## Knobby22 (9 August 2018)

Great result, wished I had bought some.


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## kid hustlr (4 October 2018)

Stock has popped into (almost ATH) after reporting today. I actually had a buy order in to buy this one for a week or so but pulled it after the recent pull back.

Looks good now


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## kahuna1 (12 April 2019)

Whoops and there she blows.

$40- and this was a $1- float with associated goodies in the form of options. And then more options.

Whilst a fan for a long time, and its been a case of the options actually trading at under 10 cents in the GFC and being exercised at expiry at $20 plus, like most good things, like say CSL ... they get little if any attention.

Right now 70 plus billion funds under management. The funds have added value ... ADDED ... to investors over what is now over 10 years. A rare thing, after costs, that the investor ends up ahead. Yep the owners and managers of course do, but an example of how it should be done.

Here, now ... its again running ahead of the earnings, but whats new. A lot of talk of something in  the wind, which has not emerged as yet. 

Just having had a look at their listed version of the fund, and prefer a lessor reliance upon tech side than they have right now. A few reasons for this, but the worlds largest non payers of tax, are 80% of the top 5 holdings. Sure, great investment, not suggesting ethical investing, but massive changes from nations to get Google, Apple and Microsoft and Facebook and a few others to PAY tax where they earn it.

USA in the meantime, cut funding to the tax office ... the IRS ... Internal Revenue service ... by 30% , audits have fallen 40% and legal cases .... NONE ... zero down 100% under Trump. Of course with 21% tax now, corporate verses 35% the revenue fell. The expected money as they gave amnesty to stealing tax from Australia and others, DID not occur. These companies only brought back to the USA a mere 20% of the loot, this despite a now new special LOW tax rate for overseas profits and NON paid tax in the rest of the world ... of 13.125% .... 

This and no medical care for the USA people are likely to change and the valuation of a company paying near zero tax anywhere ... verses one which DOES ,,, is vastly different. I am not convinced the current fund manager, Hamish can or will navigate this well. He tends to NOT cut his mistakes. In fact he has been 18% and now 15% cash since the S+P 500 was 1,800 !! .... Only time will tell .. on my fears.

Second is the overall USA market and the preponderance of this fund to be in USA based stocks, which now are at ALL TIME highs ever .... v the GDP ... higher than even 1929. Higher and if as I suspect the 3,000 S+P level is breached and they get to 3,100 and stop somewhere around 3,150 - taking the USA overall macro value to 150% of GDP ... verses a peak in 1929 of 125% ... a peak in 2000 of 125% and in 2007 a  little lower ... but just as silly.

Here, we have rates at all time lows in relation to inflation. Insane USA debt and at $200,000- per taxpayer and the lower 80% of taxpayers earn only 35k, its ... what it is ... OBVIOUS.

I believe due to the wealth flow as the rich in the USA paying no tax and the lower 80% including all the middle class post 1980 having 24% of the wealth and NOW ... in 2019 a mere 9% ... the flow is not stopping its actually got worse and it is impossible .... IMPOSSIBLE  for it to fall too much further. We in Australia have over 30% shared by the lower 80% about as good as it gets.

Concepts like this seem to escape the current fund manager and Hamish has made some fairly bizarre calls and actions, saving grace is being long tax theft ... via his holdings ...  who are in themselves hand grenades longer term. APPLE in the UK earn t 12 billion profits and paid 12 million in tax to the UK at a recent hearing. More of a joke here.

Buffett holds almost identical holdings and I suppose one might expect the accounts look great when your NOT paying tax even to your own nation. Apple is one of Buffets biggest holdings. Maybe I should send my old Motorola tac3 phone which was $3,600- in 1997 to both of them, Buffet and the guy running this fund now ? 

Trump has done some irreparable damage to trade and the USA's name overseas. Again, opinion, and only time will  tell via numbers where it goes. I do however note some massive measures in the EU and laws passed to stem these crooks. Even here in Australia, it seems likely some are going to get hit with 40% tax on all transactions because they believe they are above ... the law. 

For the last 10 years, if one dodged the AUD rise from 50 cents to $1- ... the best place to be has been the USA post GFC. Happens when tax is NOT an issue. Or welfare. I sadly see the tides turning, whether it be 2020 or 2024 ... the USA will have universal healthcare ... as it should. Instead of paying 5% tax overall ... these companies ... the pets ... will be paying close to 20% . Again, predictions but the second one is in progress and the rest of the world cant afford to NOT collect 1% of GDP or close to 2% for Australia in GDP it is owed. 

Not all bad, even in this scenario ... holding 15% cash even if techs turn more sour should protect it for a while the funds at least.

As for the rest, well done ... and ... well ... good luck


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## kahuna1 (24 April 2019)

And there she blows ...

S+P 500 up near all time highs ... $42.50

MFG and funds under management are of course a function of the S+P on the main as thats where most of it lies.

Suspect still some legs on the S+P even from here ... in the USA so ... to 3,125 or so ... another 8% so $47- ? ... who knows.

I might add ... when in early 2016 was at 1,800 or so ... MFg had 40 billion under management and now 160% of that its 70 billion under management and YEP ... some added, but on the main a function of the underlying market.

Oh and MFG was $28- toppish I thought then relative to the world outside, now at 150% of that ... just like the INDEX ... yep again ... stretching.

Markets at times go too far and of course cutting tax in the USA to 21% verses 35% for companies and ignoring the people and healthcare and pensions ... is what it is. A very big driver ... and tax collected via USA corporations where the tax loopholes were supposedly closed ... went from 17.6% of profits about 50% of the tax rate ... to 7.3% NOW.

So its at 33% the actual tax rate verses 50% pre Trump ... and well ... not providing healthcare is never a wise option for any Society. Not longer term. Cycles change and eventually universal healthcare in the USA is coming ... and the drivers that saw the USA ignore its poor and coloured, well over 50% and drove its stocks to outperform all others ... will change.

Such is the cycle of life and markets. It goes to extremes.


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## peter2 (25 April 2019)

@kahuna1  You've mentioned MFG/MFF several times recently, so I've looked at the charts instead of ignoring them as I do with all LICs. The performance for their investors since the GFC has been spectacular. Especially MFG > +9000%. The maxDD (2015-16) was 29%, but this was after 4 huge up years. 






Thanks for pointing out their long term performances. I realise that past performances may not be indicative of future performance especially if governments get serious about collecting taxes from these multinational companies. I hope they do.


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## kahuna1 (25 April 2019)

Hi Peter,

thanks, yep ... hard to work out actual return from MFF and MFG as an investor but its massive. Options and second options MFG and MFF a lot of options cover its returns.

Both decent fund mangers, the latter the better at around 18% per annum for people in the fund. MFF is essentially a fund LISTED one as opposed to MFG which is the fund manager ... a fund manger. Its main fund has about 15.7 %  return per annum longer term.

Do feel one hand we go higher USA wise, and likely 8% of so ... but in the greater scheme of things, caution and pause, MFG tends to run miles ahead of reality and here, well its reflecting that.

Suspect, longer term things cannot go on USA leading and outperforming all other nations as it ignores its sick and poor and gives tax cuts to the 1% ... and that has made values of USA stocks now paying 20% of what they did 20 years ago, jump.

time will tell  but both decent and prefer the MFF in a storm.

Take care


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## Smurf1976 (30 April 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> MFG tends to run miles ahead of reality and here, well its reflecting that.



The chart looks far too vertical versus anything which makes sense for my liking.


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## kahuna1 (30 April 2019)

Well its like holding a leverage S+P 500 position and of course ... funds under management are a function of that ... so too income and underlying profits. 

Just hit the 2,950 in the S+P before retreating a bit ... but suspect 3,000- is irresistible to them.


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## Dona Ferentes (6 February 2020)

Magellan Financial Group has reported a 6.97 per cent increase in funds under management in January, which reached $104.3 billion by month's end.

The increase in funds in global equities (7.0 per cent) and infrastructure (8.2 per cent) outpaced Australian equities (3.7 per cent).


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## Dona Ferentes (24 March 2020)

And a month later:

Global fund manager Magellan says its defensive equity strategy saying is well positioned to ride out the financial storm caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Magellan Financial last week in a note to shareholders detailed its equity strategy for the group’s $100bn investment portfolio.

Approximately 15 per cent of its investments will be held in cash (US dollars), with other investments in US utilities, telecommunication infrastructure and consumer staples.

It also noted its holdings in luxury brands such as LVMH (Louis Vuittion Moet Hennessy) and technology investments are well positioned due to existing financial strength within respective companies.

Magellan Financial chief executive Hamish Douglas also warned that the fund does hold exposure to Mcdonalds, Starbucks and Yum! Brands, which are facing a “challenging demand situation” as economies begin to shut down due to the virus.

MFG shares last up 5.4 per cent to $32.39 - after touching record highs of $74.91 only a month ago.


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## kahuna1 (3 April 2020)

Avoid ....


Takes effort to be cash 16% for a 70% rise /// then invest at the peak ... and then a month latter be back again to 17% cash.

As for not understanding even basic economics, let alone history ... 

Comparing USA recovery post CV19 to any others in favorable terms, is .... delusional and for a fund manager disturbing.

Even a person with a Forrest Gump IQ and lower would understand this. Hamish Douglass, who like Trump has some ... well ... errors ... misses the point yet again.

Only a Davos type would be able to get economics and trends so badly wrong.

Time will tell, but at this stage I would ... RUN the hell in the other direction. Clearly displayed either excessive CV19 isolation or excessive exposure to Fox News ... mere part of the problem with this fund manager.

Long term under performance for funds under management.

Missing ... USA ... CV19 response is something most of the rest of the world is viewing in horror is what clearly is displayed at the moment for this fund manager. 

Talk about missing the point, macro economically and every other way looking forward. Cannot even understand recent history in his current views. 

Suggest serious under-performance verses index as time goes on. Not massive, but the GAP between benchmark and results, alarming and over time .... as with most, this one fades due to an at best erratic and disturbing dictatorial leadership which is more interested in his own reflection and importance than actually understanding or even comprehension of past events that do not comply with his views.

I find ... his shared CV19 views alarming on every level. Actions, views on future and understanding of PAST events.


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## peter2 (14 March 2021)

@kahuna1  got this one right. *MFG* has significantly underperformed over the past six months. 
Something has seriously gone wrong with this fund manager.


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## Dona Ferentes (14 March 2021)

I heard a guy (who has sparred with Douglass) opine that Magellan had hitched itself to the FAANG growth story for a decade and now has a one hundred billion dollar headache of unwinding positions and finding a new theme or two for the next period ahead. And issuing those options on funds will crimp upside. 

Performance is the measure of MFG success, and maybe attracting too much money, and the *fees that flow*, has trapped them.

_First Hubris, then Nemesis_


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## peter2 (14 March 2021)

Although the underperformance of *MFG* relative to the market (XJO) is very noticeable in the past six months, the real question concerns MFG's future prospects. 

Past 6 months
	

		
			
		

		
	






Past two years 
	

		
			
		

		
	






The performance of *MFG* relative to the index over the past two years has been quite a ride. The end result is that it has performed better than the index over this 2yr period (especially including divs). While a medium term trader would be disappointed the longer term investor would be comfortable holding *MFG*. This difference in perspective is the main difference between investors and traders. 

@Skate has posted an interesting opinion on *MFG* and I'd like to see it reposted in this thread. 

If the recent underperformance of *MFG* is just a short term dip in a long term trend of outperformance then *MFG* is worthy of consideration during this dip. 

I do a great disservice to real investors mentioning such a small period as two years as an investment. The 10 year chart of *MFG* shows that it has been one of the better investments in the ASX over this period.


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## Skate (14 March 2021)

*MFG is currently a buy*
What I hope to achieve is to give a sense that (MFG) at this time is a worthy buy (well I think so) only time will tell. When you are reading my reasoning all I say is be objective, rather than jumping to conclusions. First off, I'll have to admit Magellan Financial Group share price is down after the fund manager gave its monthly Fund Under Management (FUM) update for February 2021.

*Strengthening my position - an article by - Jaz Harrison*
Jaz is a keen investor who loves to thoroughly poke holes in an investment idea before it has a chance of making it into her portfolio. Jaz invests for the long-term and doesn't sweat the small stuff. She strongly believes that empowering people with knowledge is the best way for them to take charge of their finances, which is exactly the approach she takes with her own money and investments.

*Jaz goes on to say - I think the Magellan share price is a buy*
The Magellan share price has suffered in the wake of this inflation/interest rate sell-off. It has dropped over 30% since 20 November 2020. Some of Magellan’s investments haven’t grown recently, but this is a very "short-term horizon" in investment terms.

*However, there are also a number of attractive features about Magellan*
Magellan continues to see Funds Under Management (FUM) inflows. Magellan’s new investments – Guzman y Gomez, Barrenjoey, and FinClear – are all doing well. If you read the Australian Financial Review, you might have seen that Barrenjoey seems to pinch a quality individual from other local investment banks at least once a week.

*Another reason to think that Magellan can be a solid performer*
Magellan has a high dividend payout ratio. Fund managers don’t need to keep much capital to grow, so Magellan can pay large dividends to investors – this adds to the total shareholder return, without impacting growth much. Magellan currently has a trailing partially franked dividend yield of 5.1%. Using earnings estimates on Commsec, it’s valued at under 14 times the projected earnings for the 2023 financial year. So, that positive.

*So, why update you on Magellan?*
The recent comments fall outside my current thinking. In my opinion "Magellan" has positioned itself for long-term gains. I'm counting on Magellan recovering to its previous glory & if it does "capital gains" will be jumping off the screen. (that my end Game)

Skate.


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## Dona Ferentes (20 March 2021)

another reason not to hold MFG: (IMO ... it is called _alignment of interests_)



> Barrenjoey Capital handed out at least $15 million worth of Magellan Financial Group shares to new employees in its first three months, as part of its strategy of picking off key bankers, brokers and analysts for the new investment bank. Accounts lodged with the corporate regulator show that as at December 31, Barrenjoey held 900,813 Magellan Financial Group shares, compared to the 1.2 million shares it had held on September 21.




_Magellan Financial Group is one of Barrenjoey’s major backers, having bought 40 per cent of the new investment bank with 1.2 million shares and $90 million in cash and providing $50 million in working capital. But it only has a 4.99 per cent voting interest in Barrenjoey._


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## kenny (21 March 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> another reason not to hold MFG: (IMO ... it is called _alignment of interests_)
> 
> 
> 
> _Magellan Financial Group is one of Barrenjoey’s major backers, having bought 40 per cent of the new investment bank with 1.2 million shares and $90 million in cash and providing $50 million in working capital. But it only has a 4.99 per cent voting interest in Barrenjoey._



I don't follow, @Dona Ferentes . Can you explain it further, thanks?


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## Dona Ferentes (21 March 2021)

kenny said:


> I don't follow, @Dona Ferentes . Can you explain it further, thanks?



I have the view, rightly or wrongly, that most Fund Manager vehicles (and there are quite a few of them) are not appropriate for retail. Traders with their systems may be able to do OK, but really:
1. The stock is used as incentives / golden handcuffs for staff. Hence the allocations to Barranjoey staff. If a member leaves, then those shares tend to be/ are dumped. ( a bit like Directors)
2. Stock options for the above purpose are frequently used. (in copious quantities).
3. The _Beta_ is high. For FA, valuations are based on fees, and fees are are derived from the Funds held. If performance is good, then FUM (increases. If performance (rear view stuff) is better than the market, then inflows tend to occur. And if the market tanks, valuations drop and FUM is lower, and investors tend to exit  - these are open-ended funds, remember.    So the ride can be a bit of a roller coaster
4. Mandates come and go. Other large players, such as super funds, can turn the tap on and off. The margins may be tighter than retail, but the impact is still felt on FUM.

I know there are other good reasons to hold, and other good reasons to buy n sell. I have been around enough to know they aren't for me.


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## Miner (2 October 2021)

Skate said:


> *MFG is currently a buy*
> What I hope to achieve is to give a sense that (MFG) at this time is a worthy buy (well I think so) only time will tell. When you are reading my reasoning all I say is be objective, rather than jumping to conclusions. First off, I'll have to admit Magellan Financial Group share price is down after the fund manager gave its monthly Fund Under Management (FUM) update for February 2021.
> 
> *Strengthening my position - an article by - Jaz Harrison*
> ...



This was an interesting posting on 21 March 2021.
On 21 March the price of MFG was       and was a buy by experts. 
The price of MFG on 21 March 21 wasaround $44 whereas on 30 Sep the price was $34 . The price was never a dscussion point.


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## kenny (4 October 2021)

First of all; I like MFG's approach and disclose am a comfortable holder.

The share price decline is disappointing and admitted by management as a combination of hubris, changing macro factors (China) and subsequent conservative re-entry. All of which may imply the need for a revision of trading protocols within Magellan as a whole.

This is a good summary and admission from CEO Hamish Douglass. Feel free to only read the first part before he starts ranting about the absurdity of cryptocurrencies.









						Importance of remaining rational and why Bitcoin is worthless
					

The case for strong stock markets is convincing. The problem is that the case for a major correction (20% or more) in the next 12 months is also convincing. And why Bitcoin is absurd and defies logic in a market bubble.




					www.firstlinks.com.au
				




In light of this, I'm interested in what the Forum thinks as an appropriate buy price and why.


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## Dona Ferentes (6 October 2021)

Magellan Financial Group has blamed portfolio rebalancing from three of its clients for a more than $4 billion fall in funds under management in September. Retail FUM fell 4.9 per cent to $29.97 billion while institutional FUM dipped 3.6 per cent tot $83.33 billion.

The fall was led by a $4 billion fall in *global equities funds under management*, while there were smaller declines in infrastructure and Australian equities.

The group experienced net outflows of $1.5 billion, comprising net retail outflows of $617 million and net institutional outflows of $910 million.

The group said $1 billion of outflows were the result of three clients rebalancing their portfolios across global equities, infrastructure equities, and Australian equities. All three clients were retained, each with mandates in excess of $2 billion with Magellan at September 30.

It also said approximately 23 per cent of net retail outflows related to redemptions from Magellan High Conviction Trust (MHHT) following the decision to open the fund as an Active ETF.


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## finicky (7 December 2021)

Not a chart that I could buy, monthly candles breaking the falling lower BB - could be significantly worse in store given the apparent break of $30. Price down at the March 20 Wuhan low. WTH is going on? Could it be a bellwether stock?

Maybe the headline I saw (but didn't read on) " the crash has already begun you just don't know it yet". A few, maybe a lot of insiders are cashing up I've read: like that Tesla guy and his brother, Berkshire is holding  record buckets of cash and buying its own stock.

MFG Funds under Management only just keeping up Nov vs Oct but aided by AUD/USD and bounce in some holdings. Funds are increasingly outflowing I read - but not verified.
Don't like the big tech U.S tech companies like FB or the Chinese stocks their global fund has dabbled in.
Certainly one I would consider in a crash if Hamish Douglass is still there.

Decade Monthly


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## Dona Ferentes (7 December 2021)

the big news for MFG is the CEO resignation. Described as *sudden*, and communications from the Co as _*terse*_, 



> [Brett Cairns announced his resignation] _less than three weeks after he fronted the annual general meeting and delivered a strident defence of the company’s growth prospects and its “deep and long-standing relationships” with its 130 institutional clients, its huge networks of financial planners and 120,000 retail investors...._





> _But Magellan, which held an all-staff meeting at 9.30am AEDT on Tuesday, has declined to expand on the terse announcement that accompanied Cairn’s departure._




_Magellan shares fell 4 per cent on Monday before Cairns’ departure hit the boards at about 6pm. By lunchtime on Tuesday, the stock had fallen a further 4.1 per cent to sit below $30 for the first time since February 2019. The stock has now lost 46 per cent since July 1, and 48 per cent in the last 12 months.

The key concern is around Magellan’s performance and how that is flowing through to fund flows. Hours before Cairns’ resignation was announced, Magellan released its November funds under management update, which showed total FUM sat at $116.4 billion, up from $114.8 billion a month earlier and $103 billion in November 2020._


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## CityIndex (20 December 2021)

Magellan is leading the ASX200 lower today after downgrading guidance for their annual revenue and losing their largest major contract.

Earlier this morning, Magellan confirmed that St. James’s Place had terminated their mandate with company; a partnership that accounted for approximately 12% of their revenue. This has only made things worse for what has already been a torrid 2021 for the company. Their main fund has significantly underperformed its benchmarks this year, and the CEO also left the firm earlier this month, with Magellan stating it was due to personal reasons.

$MFG is now down nearly 60% YTD, trading at 5-year lows with an extremely oversold reading on the daily RSI. Can the stock, and company, turn things around from here, or are they in for another difficult year in 2022?


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## divs4ever (20 December 2021)

the joys of 'key person ' risk  , it might sound like i am gloating  but have been scorched elsewhere by the same problem ( a key personality leaving or dying )

 take care  ( but there still MIGHT be opportunity )

 ( i have never held this share )


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## Garpal Gumnut (20 December 2021)

CityIndex said:


> Magellan is leading the ASX200 lower today after downgrading guidance for their annual revenue and losing their largest major contract.
> 
> Earlier this morning, Magellan confirmed that St. James’s Place had terminated their mandate with company; a partnership that accounted for approximately 12% of their revenue. This has only made things worse for what has already been a torrid 2021 for the company. Their main fund has significantly underperformed its benchmarks this year, and the CEO also left the firm earlier this month, with Magellan stating it was due to personal reasons.
> 
> $MFG is now down nearly 60% YTD, trading at 5-year lows with an extremely oversold reading on the daily RSI. Can the stock, and company, turn things around from here, or are they in for another difficult year in 2022?



MGF has not all but many of the hallmarks of AMP. 

It has been a one man band with a paid drummer who has decided to jump ship.
The lead singer has split seemingly from his missus. It must have been one hell of a marriage as it merited an ASX announcement.

The lead singer has been playing bagpipes louder and louder to a boy band crowd and the hall is emptying.

At the rate of descent in price and poor judgement calls over many time periods, this little piglet could trade under $10 quite soon. 

Then one is getting close to AMP territory which an Uber driver told me last night has been trading at 90c.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (21 December 2021)

MGF appears to be doing a very good impression of what the French call so eloquently :

Rebond de chat mort

gg


----------



## divs4ever (21 December 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> MGF has not all but many of the hallmarks of AMP.
> 
> It has been a one man band with a paid drummer who has decided to jump ship.
> The lead singer has split seemingly from his missus. It must have been one hell of a marriage as it merited an ASX announcement.
> ...



 depends on who the missus is ( i rarely follow such matters )  some of those women are power-houses in their own right  ,  for example  she might mix with half the rich wives and royalty around the world 

 i remember we had a PM  not so long back  , whose wife  was highly respected as a company director 

  but trading  with AMP maybe IF you have quick reflexes 

 to be honest i don't think this whole sector is a good place to throw good INVESTING money  , currently  , not only do you have the internal company stuff , but those regulators/policy-makers  thinking they can look useful tweaking this sector a little more 

 all that under-performance/over-performance gobble-de-gook  it was bad enough trying to gauge benchmarks before the reforms 

 but i bet they won't standardize  .. say a  choice between XJO , or XAO as  bench-marks ( and no fancy tweaks  , like inflation-adjusted , or total returns etc etc  ) let the investor work that out for themselves if they wish to .

however , 'smart money ' MIGHT be rushing for the sidelines  and MGF is the canary in the coal-mine


----------



## MatttSAU2XR8 (21 December 2021)

Hey guys,

Not sure if this was a good idea or not but just bought some MFG at $20.55, unfortunately wasn't quick enough to get in at $19.50ish earlier in the day. Interested in anyone's thoughts on risk/benefit in hanging onto them?

From what I can see:
- Financials industry is overall not doing so well recently, eg. AMP
- MFG has fallen a LOT in the last year
- But underlying EPS and DPS has hovered around $2.30 and $2.10 per share for the last few years, so was it more a case if price being overbid, than the underyling business changing a lot?
- Big fall a few days back, over 30 %.  But if the loss of the St James client drops earnings by around 12 %, or call it 15 % to be pessimistic, then might still expect EPS and DPS to be around $1.95 and $1.78 respectively
- So at a price of $20.55 dividend return around 8.5 % and even if price were to rebound quickly to around $24 return would still be around 7.5 %
- So if held for a year and no more major problems a return of 8.5 % via dividend and 16 % via capital gain. Which after tax would be about 18 %....

On a related note Simply Wall Street seem to like them and Morningstar seem to like them and Morningstar (via ANZ) seem to currently be suggesting a PE of 8. Not sure whether to really put much stock in their thoughts though...?


----------



## divs4ever (21 December 2021)

a rapidly falling SP and a low PE USUALLY scares  buyers away ( except some big predatory fund managers  , but some of them might be on holidays )

 this situation is tricky  it isn't a reputation smash like AMP or IFL , but MAYBE more clients  are thinking of departing or reducing investment capital  ( for various reasons )

 are funds under management going to continue a share decline ( i don't know the answer to that )

 will the remaining management take this as a wake-up call ,  try something better

 OR will a bigger player decide to  swallow this up ( because let's face it the brand is only tarnished a little , not completely trashed )

 i would suggest a 'merger of equals ' but who with  there are several worse , and several more working on their own leaks ( of funds under management )

 just don't be too quick to assume  a speedy recovery ( the regulator is still tweaking )


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 December 2021)

MatttSAU2XR8 said:


> Hey guys,?



A lot of rear view mirror stuff going on there.


----------



## sptrawler (21 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> a rapidly falling SP and a low PE USUALLY scares  buyers away ( except some big predatory fund managers  , but some of them might be on holidays )
> 
> this situation is tricky  it isn't a reputation smash like AMP or IFL , but MAYBE more clients  are thinking of departing or reducing investment capital  ( for various reasons )
> 
> ...



I think all these fund managers are coming under the pump, ETF's, LIC',s and industry super funds are making it a tough space for boutique funds IMO.
They have to offer something that the aforementioned funds don't, if it isn't better performance, they will soon be given the heave ho, just my opinion.
The general public is getting more and more well informed, it is going to get harder not easier, for investment managers.


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## divs4ever (21 December 2021)

my crystal ball doesn't work  , and the ASX forbids us from giving financial advice 

 so help educate ,  so the buyer  can make a wise decision is the best we can hope for 

and this little dust-up does have some historical parallels  that might be educational ( Bill Gross leaving Pimco comes to mind as an example )

  marriage bust-ups seem to happen all the time  , as do big clients  changing  firms/funds , 

 SO FAR nobody has hinted at serious  issues  ,  so upwards is possible mid term


----------



## divs4ever (21 December 2021)

SOME ETFs  have a relatively transparent  strategy  ( the index funds  , and those that use a simple filter on an index )

 and LICs have their good and bad spells  ( you can't expect the fund manager to get it right all the time  , nor accept the manager that rarely gets it right .. unless those rare wins are jaw-dropping  and easily cover the down results )

 but it is simple enough  to buy/sell ETFs and LICs OR decide to park the NEXT amount of cash somewhere different ( while keeping current investments where they are )

 so yes these funds  have to do something a little bit special to  justify the fees and charges  ( or end up in front of the next Royal Commission )

 but yes  the investor should be better informed  , before selecting a fund manager , LIC or ETF  , so they know if and when to pull the plug

 an informed public should improve the entire industry  ( investing on behalf of a client that can barely read the yearly div. check is always likely to create friction )


----------



## finicky (21 December 2021)

$10 looks like the most likely target to me.
Two measured moves get me there, the main one being the plunge from 75 to mid 40-45 during Wuhan Feb-Mar 2020 and ignoring the extreme March spike down wick.
Doesn't matter, unless you're a trader - since the fundamentals are in flux, imo best step aside until a weekly or monthly signal - which hasn't happened yet.

Monthly


----------



## sptrawler (21 December 2021)

From your chart @finicky , it looks as though the share price followed the exuberance of the ASX, now we are on the grind stage where longer term growth is the name of the game, a lot of these managers are going to have to perform IMO.


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## peter2 (21 December 2021)

What do you mean, "there are no serious issues"! 
Poor performance is a serious issue for a fund manager. Their in-house fund (MGF) has performed poorly over the past 1, 3, 5,10 year periods. 

H. Douglass refused to admit that MGF has made investment mistakes (investments in China) until recently. If he'd taken responsibility earlier MFG could have minimised their losses from these mistakes. He continually states that MFG is a good defensive investment. Ha. If you can't admit mistakes and reduce the losses when they appear you're not playing defence but avoidance. 

In MFG defense it's difficult to move a few billion dollars around quickly (I assume). One client has decided to move, others may. There's been a massive loss of investor confidence in MFG. Can it be repaired? Yes, only if the boss is focused (divorce, loss of major client can be stressful). 

I won't be buying this falling knife but it will be interesting to monitor MFG via the charts.


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## divs4ever (21 December 2021)

peter2 said:


> What do you mean, "there are no serious issues"!
> Poor performance is a serious issue for a fund manager. Their in-house fund (MGF) has performed poorly over the past 1, 3, 5,10 year periods.
> 
> H. Douglass refused to admit that MGF has made investment mistakes (investments in China) until recently. If he'd taken responsibility earlier MFG could have minimised their losses from these mistakes. He continually states that MFG is a good defensive investment. Ha. If you can't admit mistakes and reduce the losses when they appear you're not playing defence but avoidance.
> ...



 i would argue  other fund managers   would not consider them serious  ( embarrassing , sure )  , especially if the clients stay loyal 

 next  we have a  debate of 'conviction' vs 'flexibility '  , now personally i  believe in flexibility in my selections  but MIGHT invest in a 'high conviction fund ' simply because they are good at a style i am uncomfortable in ( and of course , they  have SOME winning runs on the board 

 i can't condemn  a defensive stance  i have been expecting a REAL crash  since mid-2013  and i still think one will arrive eventually  , HOWEVER  wouldn't a savvy investor  have  some cash in a fund with a strong bullish mentality as well  , even it was high-turnover  small/mid cap  player with an aggressive/opportunistic streak  , something to reap the 'irrational exuberance  ' of the last 5 years  sure 2020 was a DIP but also proved to be a buying opportunity if you selected right 

 so OK why wouldn't Mr/Ms savvy big shot  have say 10%  of the portfolio in GEAR  or at least STW 

  H. Douglass  made some mistakes in China  but so did i  , only my  quirky 'rescue the cash ' attitude  saved me from SOME bad results 

 China in hindsight has been a trap for the greedy ( and i lost a couple of fingers there as well )

 i won't be running the calculator over this until the REGULATORY landscape  becomes clearer  , the regulator might see  MFG as a perfect victim to use as an example ( instead of AMP and some others that deserve the complete electron microscope examination )

 yes  MFG has some issues   , but can they find the talent to turn the ship around  ,
and a mass exodus near the top of the market , might be their long term savior  , imagine the rush market wide if it dropped 60% or more ( in less than a year )   ( i panicked in MFG  but ended up awash with cash when the market imploded shortly after , so  be one of the few cashed up buyers left  )

 ( i have had several 'lucky escapes ' in the last 10 years , so i know what it is like to make the best choice for all the wrong reasons )


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 December 2021)

> Magellan co-founder and chief investment officer Hamish Douglass told anxious staff on Monday that the company could recover, partly thanks to its “_relationships with thousands of financial advisers_”.



Although not a financial adviser, I worked in Financial Services and let me tell you years ago the Magellan roadshow was spinning out of control. Early 2010 and 2011, Hamish would do the legwork and tell the story. But I remember one presentation , about 2016 or maybe 2017, when there was fawning praise from his minions for one advisory group in the room as their longstanding boss was retiring. But listen, small pond, he was a bit of a 'character'. No real enjoyment sitting there squirming as this _average Joe _was lauded. Sure he brought money in the Magellan door, but so had we. It was uncomfortable, and unnecessary. An insight that they had  turned from selling on merits to a marketing outfit.

_First hubris, then nemesis. _


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 December 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Although not a financial adviser, I worked in Financial Services and let me tell you years ago the Magellan roadshow was spinning out of control. Early 2010 and 2011, Hamish would do the legwork and tell the story. But I remember one presentation , about 2016 or maybe 2017, when there was fawning praise from his minions for one advisory group in the room as their longstanding boss was retiring. But listen, small pond, he was a bit of a 'character'. No real enjoyment sitting there squirming as this _average Joe _was lauded. Sure he brought money in the Magellan door, but so had we. It was uncomfortable, and unnecessary. An insight that they had  turned from selling on merits to a marketing outfit.
> 
> _First hubris, then nemesis. _



A quite believable commentary. 

Hubris : Atis : Nemesis : Tisis

Hubris, overconfidence threatens the gods, annoying Zeus. Atis is sent to dim and blur the mind and vision. This leads to further insults to the gods and nemesis, the reckoning. The end result is tisis which I believe is the final punishment. 

One wonders where young Douglass and MFG sit on this continuum. 

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (21 December 2021)

👍


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## qldfrog (21 December 2021)

peter2 said:


> What do you mean, "there are no serious issues"!
> Poor performance is a serious issue for a fund manager. Their in-house fund (MGF) has performed poorly over the past 1, 3, 5,10 year periods.
> 
> H. Douglass refused to admit that MGF has made investment mistakes (investments in China) until recently. If he'd taken responsibility earlier MFG could have minimised their losses from these mistakes. He continually states that MFG is a good defensive investment. Ha. If you can't admit mistakes and reduce the losses when they appear you're not playing defence but avoidance.
> ...



Maybe i should apply to the job,i am great at defensive portfolio and lost just below 10% in the last 6 months.do i qualify??? 😊


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## qldfrog (21 December 2021)

More seriously,the proof i should not do discretionary trading,this is one stock i was tempted to go long term


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## divs4ever (21 December 2021)

i hold several rivals  but from my personal observation ( of the ones i hold ) the smaller the promises  , and the lower the profile the less chance of disappointment

 and to my mind trying to pick  good value stocks with an international flavour has been a nightmare  .

 just be careful of a take-over move that could crystallize  near term losses  ,  like when Pengala took over Hunter Hall ( which i held/hold )
 that was many times messier for similar reasons


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## Miner (22 December 2021)

unrelated events?

6th Dec - Brett left the company https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
8th Dec - this one- https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
17th Dec - Trading Halt and AFR article - pasted below
17th Dec - this one on SMH https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...ion-of-material-contract-20211217-p59ik1.html
20th Dec - declaration of business termination with an expected material effect of 6%. The market reacted a few times more than on the southern front.
https://www.monexsecurities.com.au/...shares-just-lost-1-8b-of-market-cap-what-now/ Today on Motley - I do not believe them but there are some facts which can not ignore on this If you read inside the linked post one expert said the loss is 15% or more, not 6% as the company stated to cool down the market.
What will be pre-Christmas disclosure - a pineapple?
for the optimistic chart from simple wall street


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## Garpal Gumnut (22 December 2021)

Yes @Miner . 

MFG say 6% loss this Australian financial year, somehow measuring this from a 12% loss from losing SJP. However the outflow of funds and inevitable lowering of fees will magnify this greatly, even if a share price fall were not to be maintained or increase. 

All in all quite a Scomotion, smoke and mirrors and marketing as @Dona Ferentes pointed out, instead of good portfolio management. 

gg


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## Miner (22 December 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Yes @Miner .
> 
> MFG say 6% loss this Australian financial year, somehow measuring this from a 12% loss from losing SJP. However the outflow of funds and inevitable lowering of fees will magnify this greatly, even if a share price fall were not to be maintained or increase.
> 
> ...



Thanks @Garpal Gumnut .
I will use 'scomotion' in future  to illustrate smoke, mirror and marketing .. 
😀 😃 🙂


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## dyna (22 December 2021)

AFR article Tuesday : Hedge funds borrowed over  8 million MFG shares to short sell , netting about $ 75 Mill profit .
Magellan Global Fund has lagged the world index by nearly 15 % over the year , giving back a decade of outperformance on $ 100 Billion of funds under management .


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## divs4ever (22 December 2021)

dyna said:


> AFR article Tuesday : Hedge funds borrowed over  8 million MFG shares to short sell , netting about $ 75 Mill profit .
> Magellan Global Fund has lagged the world index by nearly 15 % over the year , giving back a decade of outperformance on $ 100 Billion of funds under management .




 a decade of out-performance  , but then a rush for the doors  , implies it has been signing up the wrong clients  ( 'fair-weather  friends ' instead  of   sophisticated investors  )

 and maybe  in the spirit of equality  MFG should start selectively short-selling  it's rivals  , that might help returns


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## MatttSAU2XR8 (25 December 2021)

Been doing some more reading on this one...

According to their website their Global Fund which one can presumably buy units in has returned 16 % over 10 years, which has in fact beaten even the SP500 at 13 % or thereabouts, while reportedly aiming to be conservative with investment choices. So overall seem to be making more good decisions than bad. In fact makes me wonder whether one would do better to simply invest in Global Fund units as opposed to a Financial Company itself. A lot of people might be happy to simply beat the SP500? Kind of like superannuation results.

Although over the same period of time (10 years) Magellan's share price rose from about $1.40 in December 2021 to $ 70 in February 2020, and then has fallen to around $20 in December 2021. So someone who bought shares in 2011 would be delighted while someone who bought shares in 2020 would be quite upset.

Interesting thing is that while there hasn't really been any great change in earnings or dividends over the last 3 years, there has been a lot of change in share price. EPS for last three years were 226c, 239c, 228c. And dividends were around 184c, 215c, 211c. But share price went from $22 to $70 to $20. It would appear that:
- Earnings of 226c and dividend of 184c on a share price around $22 in 2018 would be fairly attractive, an apparently adequately budgeted return of 8 %
- But in 2020 earnings of 239c and dividend of 215c on a share price that reached $70 would be a fair bit less attractive, around 3.2 %, probably similar to what one could get from Coles or Woolies....
- So difficult to see why people would buy it for $70
- Interesting Motley Fool was recommending to buy it on December 10, 2019 when it was around $52 per share! It did go up more and they did suggest to sell it in January 2020 before it fell.









						10 ASX large caps to buy for 2020
					

I would buy these 10 ASX large caps to try to beat the market in 2020 including REA Group Limited (ASX:REA).




					www.fool.com.au
				












						Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to sell today
					

ASX Ltd (ASX:ASX) and these ASX shares have been named as sells by leading brokers this week. Here's why they are bearish on them...




					www.fool.com.au
				




So looking at all this it seems that the price might have been reasonable in 2019, and is maybe reasonable now, but had been bid up to silly levels in early 2020 and then fallen for quite a while since then? More profitable but probably more risky than something like Coles that earns 78 cents and pays 61c admittedly franked on a price of $17.70, so about 4.5 percent... Where Magellan seems closer to 7 or 8 %. But if their Global Fund were to continue to grow this might be a better option than either since more diversified than MFG alone, and more profitable overall than Coles? Or just seectively invest in some of the same companies that they do?


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## charlsie (31 December 2021)

Taking this for the 2022 yearly comp, as i love to read everyone's thoughts on it and purely to see if it can make a comeback.


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## MatttSAU2XR8 (1 January 2022)

Final instalment here guys
Ended up getting out of these at $22.03 today, up from $19.55 about 10 days ago
Had put a sell order in a bit higher than I though they would go and had planned to move it up but slept in....
Still did OK at an approximate 7 % rise over this time
Not sure if I should have held them a bit longer though :-(


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## divs4ever (1 January 2022)

MatttSAU2XR8 said:


> Final instalment here guys
> Ended up getting out of these at $22.03 today, up from $19.55 about 10 days ago
> Had put a sell order in a bit higher than I though they would go and had planned to move it up but slept in....
> Still did OK at an approximate 7 % rise over this time
> Not sure if I should have held them a bit longer though :-(



 the age old question  , ' should i have waited longer ( higher ) or should i have sold at all '

 one school of thought  say  , a profit taken  , is a profit guaranteed 

 time will tell , but a question i ask myself  ( in recent years ) is can i reinvest that cash wisely  , it doesn't earn much in the bank  ,

 now sure there is a chance of a big market downturn in the future   , but is that in January , March , 2025 , maybe even 2030 .

 those can-kickers are very practiced now ,  maybe they are exhausted , and maybe they have brought in new recruits and trained them up , ready to take over 

 good luck


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## charlsie (1 January 2022)

MatttSAU2XR8 said:


> Final instalment here guys
> Ended up getting out of these at $22.03 today, up from $19.55 about 10 days ago
> Had put a sell order in a bit higher than I though they would go and had planned to move it up but slept in....
> Still did OK at an approximate 7 % rise over this time
> Not sure if I should have held them a bit longer though :-(



In all of my 25 years of trading, the most costliest mistake has ALWAYS been not selling a stock. If anybody asks what the most important part of trading is to me, I tell them "learning how to pull the trigger on a sell". I only learnt this 3 years ago when my circumstances changed and if I didn't change with them, I'd drown in my problems.
though i don't trade using a system, Knowing how to sell has either made me a lot of money (positive trade) or saved me a lot of money(negative trade).
as divs4 has said, move on and reinvest wisely and you wont have lost much.
To give an example.....I've owned MCR shares for 21 years on and off.
 Firstly buying 10k at .22c in 2002,
 selling 2500 @ $1.00 in 2004   (got my money back)
 selling 2500 @ $3.00 in around 2006 (this set me up thinking i was a great trader)
I then watched as the stock hit $5.00 circa 2007 and i did bugger all, only to watch my profit fall away
several years lapsed while i raised 3 kids, worked two jobs and lost a marriage.
2018/19 took what i had left from the settlement and changed my thinking to more aggressive stance ie; if I'm in a losing trade, get out asap, don't wait to see what happens.
Meanwhile, MCR is organising with BHP to restart nickel operations and i start selling what i've got to get in and telling everyone I knew to jump on board (was my best pick in the 2021 yearly comp)
buying a lot in the capital raising last year @.77c and  my last at $1.25, only for them to hit $1.50 last week.

In the back of my mind there is a lot of chatter about inflation, interest rates and so forth. I sell down half my holdings being mindful of not coping a  capital gains hit, only to see the price still climbing. 

So the question is....... Did I do the right thing? and as far as I'm concerned......yes, for me I did.
 As for you Matt, I think you did too. You took a profit when you were asleep....I can see 2 wins here,
*1 you made a profit on a trade
*2 your money was working for you when you were doing something else you wanted to do (while you were sleeping, I was fishing in my boat paid for by investing in ADN shares)
Also, remember, if you like the stock and you're bullish, you can always buy back in (I will with MCR)
If you continue on this road of taking profits, I can't see a problem and good luck to you


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## Miner (7 January 2022)

Magellan loses $23b in St James’s Place exit
					

Quarterly reporting reveals the withdrawn mandate accounted for $23 billion of funds under management and first-half performance fees will be just $11 million.




					www.afr.com
				



$23 b - POCKET MONEY for some


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 January 2022)

Is this the end?

The adults are back trading in the large broking and hedged houses over the last 4 days since the NY holiday and the coked cousins are back on the farm or awaiting an appearance in court, as the third generation does. So it is on again, shorts will be out, a tick up on Tuesday to get the longs interested and all down since then. 

Quite a decrease in price today with an RSI which indicates the pain may be yet to come. 










gg


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## Miner (7 January 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Is this the end?
> 
> The adults are back trading in the large broking and hedged houses over the last 4 days since the NY holiday and the coked cousins are back on the farm or awaiting an appearance in court, as the third generation does. So it is on again, shorts will be out, a tick up on Tuesday to get the longs interested and all down since then.
> 
> ...




Thanks, Sir GG  @Garpal Gumnut aka Governor-General ,  for the update and video too   
Have a nice weekend and stay out of the virus and World No 1 tennis player or arrogant unsportsman from Serbia.
Have a nice weekend

Regards


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## finicky (7 January 2022)

Ok I would be s#*tg myself now if holding MFG with a break of $20. Needs to pull up quick in the next week or two to prove a false break or a horrible prospect looms - not as bad as being run over, slaughtered in your bed or getting a cancer diagnosis though. Maybe in the context of a broad market decline?


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## So_Cynical (7 January 2022)

charlsie said:


> In all of my 25 years of trading, the most costliest mistake has ALWAYS been not selling a stock



I have 16 years as an active and enthusiastic market participant and my experience is the total opposite, my biggest mistakes have been selling to early, 1 x 1000% winner covers 10 x 100% losers, fixed position sizes. losers are irrelevant.

MFG its all about FUM, clients voting with their feet directly impacts fees and profit.


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## divs4ever (7 January 2022)

reckon  i have made most of the mistakes  an investor without a margin loan can make  , however  they haven't been hugely damaging  when they go wrong  , sure i have sold too early AND too late  ( and not sold at all  on the wrong stock  )

 BUT sometimes i do the right thing at the right time as well 

 MFG  might be able to turn this round  or not 

 one thing it still has  is a relatively undamaged brand  depending on the funds that are performing well  , it MIGHT be a take-over target , there has been a bit of consolidation going on .


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## dyna (8 January 2022)

US billionaire investor Ray Dalio doesn't always get it right either. Caught by  surprise in the 2020 covid crash, he lost $ US 12 Billion.
The former co-chief investment officer of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater has had mixed results of late. ( China's Alibaba )
One of Bridgewaters funds only returned 1.6 % annually over a ten year period.
One thing he has been consistently right about is the need to diversify. Always.


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## divs4ever (8 January 2022)

poking around this website might be useful 






						Australian Stocks - Big Green Snowflakes - Investing Ideas  - Simply Wall St
					

Australian Big Green Snowflakes - Every company on Simply Wall St ordered by total Snowflake score (not a Buy recommendation).




					simplywall.st


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## So_Cynical (9 January 2022)

dyna said:


> US billionaire investor Ray Dalio doesn't always get it right either. Caught by  surprise in the 2020 covid crash, he lost $ US 12 Billion.
> The former co-chief investment officer of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater has had mixed results of late. ( China's Alibaba )



Ray is super bullish China so that must of cost him a bit over the last 2 years.


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## divs4ever (9 January 2022)

So_Cynical said:


> Ray is super bullish China so that must of cost him a bit over the last 2 years.



 yes i was surprised by that  , ( being super-bullish on China ) i thought he  may have cooled down to simply bullish  for a while  but maybe he can see China getting a second wind in the coming 5 years  ( and maybe he has some very juicy positions  , as well )

 i am still preferring  India and Vietnam  , and would add Korea  if it started more towards unification ( which i suspect would be very painful , but probably productive  .. think Germany after the Berlin Wall fell )

 the virus  didn't catch me as badly as some  , i was already very nervous   over Repo-Madness , so was preparing for 'something ' ( i was more expecting a credit crunch ) i was looking at the wrong places but at least i wasn't sipping champers and gazing at the moon


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## charlsie (9 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i am still preferring  India and Vietnam



Sorry to redact most of your comment divs... though can you imagine how prosperous our country will be if the urbanisation of India could become a reality? Moving the country through the stages will take a long time and our children would receive the most benefit i think.


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## Miner (9 January 2022)

charlsie said:


> Sorry to redact most of your comment divs... though can you imagine how prosperous our country will be if the urbanisation of India could become a reality? Moving the country through the stages will take a long time and our children would receive the most benefit i think.



Hello @charlsie
Would you please elaborate your comments a bit further to understand a bit more to understand it better by  a country miner?


----------



## charlsie (9 January 2022)

Miner said:


> Hello @charlsie
> Would you please elaborate your comments a bit further to understand a bit more to understand it better by  a country miner?



Absolutely Miner. The way I see it, is that India is a number of years behind China in the growth of the economy. A lot of the work they do is still manual labour as opposed to mechanisation of the labour force. This impedes the growth of the country as a whole. When the country begins to lift itself (as china has in the last 30 years) more money becomes available and Australia being on good political terms as well as having a large Indian population just has to benefit from their growth, be it food, agricultural product, mined products, more education and anything else we can supply. 
I have an over simplified idea of it all, but that how it looks to me. I just have to think back to before China got the 2008 Olympic games and the price of copper. Since then, a lot of what i have thought about was who would be next. I think india will be


----------



## Miner (9 January 2022)

charlsie said:


> Absolutely Miner. The way I see it, is that India is a number of years behind China in the growth of the economy. A lot of the work they do is still manual labour as opposed to mechanisation of the labour force. This impedes the growth of the country as a whole. When the country begins to lift itself (as china has in the last 30 years) more money becomes available and Australia being on good political terms as well as having a large Indian population just has to benefit from their growth, be it food, agricultural product, mined products, more education and anything else we can supply.
> I have an over simplified idea of it all, but that how it looks to me. I just have to think back to before China got the 2008 Olympic games and the price of copper. Since then, a lot of what i have thought about was who would be next. I think india will be



@charlsie 
I agree with your conceptual basis and that is the first step to develop further work. You are 100% right here.
Some icing on the cake - Both India and China are going ahead with rest of the world but you forgot to include Vietnam who are a sleeping giant and currently no political threat to rest of the world.

China has an additional advantage being a dictatorial regime -if people do not listen to the chair then they can be made to listen. Whereas India being a democratic country - that option is not feasible. Some times dictatorial ship help - just a current example - taking jab or not taking the jab. If we were in Saudi Arabia or China and government wants us to have a jab- then personal choice is just not there. Compulsory military training as in Singapore. 
India has few advantages over China - there is a transparent system however corruption level there. System does work with or without bribery. The level of education and technology is at every corner to provide multiplying effect. Age demography - large part of 1.3 billion is below 45 years age. That gives a long yard to grow unlike Australia. GDP - expected 8%. India has its core industry and planning (used to be 5 years planning (does not exist in Australia ) and now defunct. 
India however suffers significantly on defense side - so more China lays hands of friendship with disturbed border states of India meaning  India will put more budgetary allocation on defense and disturbed to take a better leverage of the planned progress.  Bla Bla.
Returning on MFG - Indian banking system and FUM by the banking institutions are massive.


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## divs4ever (9 January 2022)

charlsie said:


> Sorry to redact most of your comment divs... though can you imagine how prosperous our country will be if the urbanisation of India could become a reality? Moving the country through the stages will take a long time and our children would receive the most benefit i think.



 do either of these nations need an increase in urbanization ( India or Vietnam )  , i think one  lesson  found during the virus outbreak  , is some tasks can be handled from remote locations if the telecommunications  is up to the task  , now the MIX of the city dwellers might change ( more blue-collar and shop workers  , less office workers and execs , and educators  )  remember there is a trend to a more automated workforce  , although i don't expect India to be a big mover in that direction in the next ten years 

 with India i am thinking relieving  logistics bottlenecks  as the major leap forward  and maybe an improved power grid as well


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## Miner (9 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> do either of these nations need an increase in urbanization ( India or Vietnam )  , i think one  lesson  found during the virus outbreak  , is some tasks can be handled from remote locations if the telecommunications  is up to the task  , now the MIX of the city dwellers might change ( more blue-collar and shop workers  , less office workers and execs , and educators  )  remember there is a trend to a more automated workforce  , although i don't expect India to be a big mover in that direction in the next ten years
> 
> with India i am thinking relieving  logistics bottlenecks  as the major leap forward  and maybe an improved power grid as well



"with India i am thinking relieving logistics bottlenecks as the major leap forward and maybe an improved power grid as well"
India as it was pre 2000 and now has changed heaps.
Some logistics - largest railway infrastructure in the world;  broad gauge railway (Australia has none) - not been to Vietnam - so dunno.
Road - back in 1992- 250 kms road travel took some 12 hours due to very poor road condition. Today, 2000 km travelled in 12 hours. People often opt for plane or road (without being delayed due to cancellation ) than railway to commute.
Underground rail - better than London UG. Just Google about Delhi latest metro rail.
1 billion people got vaccinated due to improved logistics in record time even if India was sleeping for long time to wake up to protect COVID.
There are still rural areas which lacks logistics but population coverage and small geographic area, if we take pc it is negligible. 
Telephone SIM cards - 2 to 3 SIM on same phone set is common.
Of course the pollution level is the highest too  .


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## divs4ever (9 January 2022)

there are enough clever people in India  to fix the problems however they will not be fixed next week  , which gives India  a realistic growth potential  , whereas  China should be slowing it's growth ( to around 5%  for a while )

 now my attempts to get exposure to that Chinese growth were very mixed , i am hoping for a better result in seeking exposure to India .

 i take pollution as an indicator of productivity ( the EU used to have a pollution problem , but look at it now )


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## So_Cynical (9 January 2022)

charlsie said:


> Sorry to redact most of your comment divs... though can you imagine how prosperous our country will be if the urbanisation of India could become a reality? Moving the country through the stages will take a long time and our children would receive the most benefit i think.



Agree - India is a democracy and the states have a lot of power, going to take a lot of time for India to urbanise, long play.


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## finicky (10 January 2022)

Impressive day today for MFG with an immediate break back above $20. Daily candle pair: tweezer bottom or bullish engulfing? But at a precarious level on a long term chart. 

From James Gerrish on Livewire: 

"*Magellan (MFG) *+6.74% also rallied although this is a stock we bought at higher levels and at ~$20.60 we still have some way to go, but the mkt has turned too bearish we think and we’ll continue to hold our nerve here. I was told many moons ago to back intelligence and despite Hamish Douglas having his back to the wall I still think this is intact"

3 Mth Daily


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## finicky (7 February 2022)

Hamish has gone home to pull the covers over his head - that'd be my solution too. He might not have made the decision unassisted to take leave on health grounds I guess.
FUM down another A$2B and that's with a tailwind of a lower AUD to prior month. Unlike PTM's more helpful updates Magellan dont tell us in the brief whether funds have been net outflowing.


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## Dona Ferentes (7 February 2022)

Chris Mackay is taking the reins. He was there at the outset, before hiving off to run MFF. once called the Flagship Fund LIC but now named MFF Capital Investments Limited (to create a bit of distance from Global Fund)

Mackay oversee the portfolio management of Magellan’s global equity mandates. Nikki Thomas, a portfolio manager who left the firm in 2017 as part of a restructure, will also return as co-portfolio manager.


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## Dona Ferentes (7 February 2022)

Big ouch... dropping > 10% and now about $16.50 ........... the lowest since the start of 2015.

The commentary run by Mackay in MFF (as a LIC it reports NTA monthly and does a Quarterly overview) is is quite bearish

_"For some time in prevailing market and interest rate conditions, we have had a primary focus on seeking to avoid major permanent losses of capital, and this continues. MFF’s reinvestment of proceeds built up in the early stages of COVID focussed upon higher probability positive outcomes in markets that we considered lacked quality bargains comparable to those available during and after the GFC. A decent proportion of our Covid purchases have now been unwound profitably. Going forward, we hope for better quality bargains. Nevertheless, our buying in January was concentrated on quality, profitable, growing, core company holdings at prices we perceived to be satisfactory rather than bargains. Our portfolio and capital structure allow us to fund purchases from previous, current and future sales of non core holdings, and from other capital resources. We continue to look for market prices which enable such sales to provide funding for future better quality, better value purchases, at the cost of regular tax payments and the cost of cash balances and/or an underutilised balance sheet."_


and from the AFR


> _It will also be fascinating to see if there are big changes to Magellan’s portfolio under Mackay. A comparison of MFF’s top holdings with those in Magellan’s flagship Global Fund shows several key common holdings, including Visa, Microsoft, Meta Platforms (formerly known as Facebook) and Alphabet (Google’s parent company). But there are key differences, too. Mackay’s portfolio has steered well away from China, whereas Douglass has been an avid proponent of the market’s potential - albeit with decidedly mixed results._


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 February 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Big ouch... dropping > 10% and now about $16.50 ........... the lowest since the start of 2015.
> 
> The commentary run by Mackay in MFF (as a LIC it reports NTA monthly and does a Quarterly overview) is is quite bearish
> 
> ...



A very apt commentary from both sources. 

The market tends to overestimate the qualities of aesthete gurus on the way up but punishes them severely when in the cold light of day they sit defeated in oversized RMWilliams boots. 

Sentiment is at work. Never stand in the way of sentiment.

gg


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## Miner (7 February 2022)

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02483741-2A1355092?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		

My best wishes for Hamish on medical and personal front.
It is a billion dollar pain for shareholders as well


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## divs4ever (7 February 2022)

am almost tempted  to reach for the calculator  here  ( to work out an attractive price )

i already hold rivals  , PDL ( 'free-carried ) , EQT ( 'free-carried ' ) JHG  and a few lesser known  ones ,  and am wondering if i add some MFG  whether i will be overweight in the sector  , but goodness me , for the brave  there have been  some cherries to pick in the last decade 

 DYOR


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## Dona Ferentes (7 February 2022)

*The ball tampering scandal in the 2018 tour of South Africa allowed Magellan to use a contract clause and end its association after just a few months


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## divs4ever (10 February 2022)

Last interview with Hamish Douglass before medical leave​








						Last interview with Hamish Douglass before medical leave
					

Last week, I interviewed Hamish Douglass about investing and positions in his portfolio. He was articulate, confident and relaxed, but a few days later, the Board of Magellan announced he was taking medical leave.




					www.firstlinks.com.au


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## peter2 (10 February 2022)

This has been a fascinating thread to reread. I have to give credit to @kahuna1 who posted in April 2020, "Avoid". Soon after, others also mentioned their misgivings for *MFG*. 

I'm going to admit that I've bought a small starting position of *MFG* in a large cap portfolio. I bought after reading about the CEO medical leave and the rehiring of two people that were there at the start of *MFG*'s good years. The press and sentiment seems to be very positive about these appointments. *MFG* will need this positive sentiment to keep existing investors and attract new ones. I also think that *MFG* should reduce their mgt fees now that the "Ego" has left.


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## Dona Ferentes (10 February 2022)

charlsie said:


> The way I see it, is that India is a number of years behind China in the growth of the economy. A lot of the work they do is still manual labour as opposed to mechanisation of the labour force. This impedes the growth of the country as a whole. When the country begins to lift itself (as china has in the last 30 years) more money becomes available and Australia being on good political terms as well as having a large Indian population just has to benefit from their growth, be it food, agricultural product, mined products, more education and anything else we can supply.
> I have an over simplified idea of it all, but that how it looks to me. I just have to think back to before China got the 2008 Olympic games and the price of copper. Since then, a lot of what i have thought about was who would be next. I think india will be



It's very interesting to read this, as the comments stimulate a memory. Magellan started hitting the fund-raising circuit, presenting to planners and institutions before the GFC and I attended several events when the Fund was just starting out. The overwhelming theme, even in 2006/07 and especially afterwards when urbanisation was accelerating and China kicked in with its massive spend, was how there was a shift in imports, and a shift in consumption in the country. The inflection point was a GDP of US5,000 or equivalent. In those years, this was all that Douglass hammered on about. And yes he had not yet farmed out the task to a minion. It was a persuasive argument. But somehow, when China did pass that point, and win/ win was what they were all talking about, the mandate shifted. By the mid 2010's, it was an infatuation with tech and the growth stories coming out of digital transformation. Also, the flow of funds into the Global Fund made Magellan a different beast, which needed to buy in deeper markets.

And the diversity of approaches; unlisted managed fund, mFund, ASX listed fund, Hedged, unhedged, concentrated, etc. Lots of ways to allocate the $100billion under management, no wonder they lost their way.









						Our Funds
					

Magellan Financial Group is a specialist funds management business based in Sydney, Australia.




					www.magellangroup.com.au
				





*Magellan Global Fund (Open Class) (Managed Fund) (ASX:MGOC)**Magellan Global Fund Closed Class (ASX:MGF)**Magellan Global Fund (Hedged)**Magellan Global Equities Fund (Currency Hedged) (Managed fund) (ASX:Mhg)**Magellan High Conviction Fund**Magellan High
                  Conviction
                  Trust (ASX:MHHT)**Magellan Sustainable
                  Fund
                  (Ticker:MSUF)*

.............................................
But whether India and/ or Vietnam will replicate what China did? I'm not so sure. It has already been done.


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 February 2022)

It is tomorrow that this mob report, isn’t it ?

gg


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## Skate (17 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is tomorrow that this mob report, isn’t it ?
> 
> gg




YES

"Magellan Financial Group 2022 Interim Results" will begin on: Feb 18, 2022, 11:00 AM Canberra, Melbourne, Sydney

Skate.


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 February 2022)

> Embattled fund manager Magellan’s funds under management have declined by almost $10 billion to $77.2 billion since its last update on February 11, when it said it had $87.2 billion of funds under management.



From the AFR. 

So this little piglet has lost 12% or so of FUM in 2 weeks.

And it is still being recommended by brokers. 

OK ...

gg


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## peter2 (14 March 2022)

Latest update from the AFR.com . *MFG* losing more funds and losing more market cap.


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## JohnDe (14 March 2022)

peter2 said:


> This has been a fascinating thread to reread. I have to give credit to @kahuna1 who posted in April 2020, "Avoid". Soon after, others also mentioned their misgivings for *MFG*.
> 
> I'm going to admit that I've bought a small starting position of *MFG* in a large cap portfolio. I bought after reading about the CEO medical leave and the rehiring of two people that were there at the start of *MFG*'s good years. The press and sentiment seems to be very positive about these appointments. *MFG* will need this positive sentiment to keep existing investors and attract new ones. I also think that *MFG* should reduce their mgt fees now that the "Ego" has left.




Yes. I dodge a bullet from this one. I thought very hard about buying in during March and & June 2020, the finance gods must have been watching over me, because something in my head kept ringing alarm bells.


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## peter2 (14 March 2022)

I should disclose that I no longer hold *MFG*. I did buy after the CEO took leave and decided to grab the quick profit as the overall market was looking a bit weak. *MFG* is no longer a trading candidate. It would require a massive reversal. I think the reversal would be a possibility if *MFG* decreased their fees. Mgt egos are not likely to do this. They still believe their performance is worth their fees when they're clearly not.


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## Miner (14 March 2022)

peter2 said:


> I should disclose that I no longer hold *MFG*. I did buy after the CEO took leave and decided to grab the quick profit as the overall market was looking a bit weak. *MFG* is no longer a trading candidate. It would require a massive reversal. I think the reversal would be a possibility if *MFG* decreased their fees. Mgt egos are not likely to do this. They still believe their performance is worth their fees when they're clearly not.
> 
> View attachment 139089



No epitaph can be written on the unfortunate premature demise of MFG.  I feel sad for  the investors who trusted such organisations only to see the promoters played the dirty game. DNH


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## Garpal Gumnut (14 March 2022)

Miner said:


> No epitaph can be written on the unfortunate premature demise of MFG.  I feel sad for  the investors who trusted such organisations only to see the promoters played the dirty game. DNH



MFG is doing an AMP. 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 March 2022)

Well this outfit continues to making a goodly attempt at doing the dough of investors according to the Age, a newspaper of record.









						Investors smell uncertainty as Douglass resigns from Magellan board
					

Hamish Douglass’ aversion to the limelight is understandable given he has now experienced the negative aspects of fame.




					www.theage.com.au
				




There do seem to have been a few too many Hamishes around the MFG Board table so having Mr. Hamish Douglass ( Henceforth to be known in this post as KarmaH to distinguish him from all t'other ones with Scottish Grandfathers ) resign would lessen any shades of uncertainty at meetings when questions are raised. 

Meanwhile Magellan now have to explain why having KarmaH absent from any role in MFG does not give rise to bigger questions as KarmaH's Zenlike connection with the future direction of markets was touted as MFG's main point of difference from other Fund Managers and Financial Groups. 

At least KarmaH is still a major shareholder, although some meditation may be occurring in that oompah land. 

Perhaps he may buy more on market. 

Perhaps he might ...

MFG is only, I like that word only, down 4.3%  today. 

Anyway, the Yoga mats are out here at the Hotel and it is time for some stretches. 

gg


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## Miner (21 March 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Well this outfit continues to making a goodly attempt at doing the dough of investors according to the Age, a newspaper of record.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



While doing Yoga, you may get some company as MFG is yet to cross the lowest point of the year.


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## divs4ever (6 June 2022)

will keep an eye on this , just in case an attractive price appears

but will also be watching PTM  ( i hold )  in case there is contagion

 YES , i think funds will slowly leak out of both  fund managements ( it's a tough market and investors will be nervous )

 be careful

 BTW i note MFG will drop out of the  ASX 100 index while PTM leaves the  ASX 200  in the middle of this month


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## Miner (6 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> will keep an eye on this , just in case an attractive price appears
> 
> but will also be watching PTM  ( i hold )  in case there is contagion
> 
> ...



Did you get the bull's eye today or still aiming for tomorrow 
BTW, I was interested to see what the techys are saying and got this. If the below is right then we are aiming to visit Brazil to watch Latino dance


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## divs4ever (6 June 2022)

no waiting and lurking  , there is still plenty be nervous about in international securities  , it would be easy to blame the fund managers , but there are other forces at work as well  ,


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## peter2 (7 June 2022)

I haven't looked for any news but if *MFG* doesn't immediately bounce back today (day following the selloff to new lows) then it's a dead duck. International markets have stopped falling. They may continue falling or not. *MFG* should be trading steady like the markets so long as *MFG*  investors are comfortable with *MFG* management. Fund flows are a lagging report while the price movement reflects the current sentiment.


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## Gretsch (8 June 2022)

Well, having held MGF since 2014 it was doing well up until 2019 and now I think is the worst time to dump it.


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## Miner (8 June 2022)

Gretsch said:


> Well, having held MGF since 2014 it was doing well up until 2019 and now I think is the worst time to dump it.



If i have reaped the benefits until and tolerated down fall, I will take opportunity exit at an opportune time.
Please check our Guru @peter2 's commentary and hear from other scholars of this forum . We are not a ramping forum, so make your decision listening and doing your own analysis, to optimise lossor profit depending on entry price. 
I entered in the past when mfg was low and probably  exited with marginal gain (?)


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## Gretsch (8 June 2022)

Miner said:


> If i have reaped the benefits until and tolerated down fall, I will take opportunity exit at an opportune time.
> Please check our Guru @peter2 's commentary and hear from other scholars of this forum . We are not a ramping forum, so make your decision listening and doing your own analysis, to optimise lossor profit depending on entry price.
> I entered in the past when mfg was low and probably  exited with marginal gain (?)



Yes I read his yesterday's comments on MFG and others, and that got me thinking. 
I'm already down over 20% on MFG but if I were to sell all of my Magellan holdings I would make a tiny cap gain (not counting divs over the years).


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## Dona Ferentes (9 June 2022)

> Magellan shares rose 2.7 per cent to $12.89 _after co-founder Hamish Douglass announced he would return to the company as a consultant._



Alarm bells would ring if it was otherwise


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## Miner (9 June 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Alarm bells would ring if it was otherwise



Does Hamish need cash to pay his bills for  medical and no earning phase, 
MFG management possibly engaged him to use his name as a magic ointment to bump the stock price temporarily ?
Who knows?


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## Dona Ferentes (9 June 2022)

Miner said:


> Does Hamish need cash to pay his bills for  medical and no earning phase,
> 
> Who knows?



Douglass sold his eastern suburbs house for $30 million recently, it was reported.


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## Austwide (9 June 2022)

I don't follow MFG but it looks like they went south well before Douglass left. 
Or was he sick and not acting prior to departure?


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## Miner (10 June 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Douglass sold his eastern suburbs house for $30 million recently, it was reported.



So he needs more cash by milking cash cow


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## Miner (10 June 2022)

Austwide said:


> I don't follow MFG but it looks like they went south well before Douglass left.
> Or was he sick and not acting prior to departure?



His sickness probably affected his decisions to some extent he took sick leave


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## Belli (11 June 2022)

Miner said:


> His sickness probably affected his decisions to some extent he took sick leave




I've seen no evidence that was the case.  However, in 2020 Magellan was heavily into tech shares including China (Alibaba, Meta and the rest.) as well as Starbucks, Maccas, luxury goods, etc as the view was as the middle class in China grew they would gravitate to the consumption side offered by those organisations same as Western society does to a large extent.  It didn't work out.


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## Garpal Gumnut (11 June 2022)

Miner said:


> His sickness probably affected his decisions to some extent he took sick leave



Somehow, I find it difficult to have much sympathy for the unwell Hamish. 

He is still on the books acting as a sage on the international environment (whatever that means), and in that role, I presume drawing a "wage". 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (22 August 2022)

Quite a damning assessment of Hamish Douglass and the Magellan board in the AFR today.

The unwell runner of an equestrian dojo and pedestrian stock picker has been tagged by Joe Aston for his departure gift $1000 less than that requiring a shareholder vote. 



> These revealed that upon the resignation of co-founder *Hamish Douglass* as chief investment officer in June (though he’d been on a medical leave of absence since February and quit as a director in March), Magellan’s board paid him $2,499,000, a clean $1000 below the statutory threshold for a shareholder vote.




And he is still a consultant while battling his medical illness.

Worth a copy of the AFR to read all about it.

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (22 August 2022)

Too often the board and senior management think they are _eudaimon _but succumb to _hubris_. With Douglass, that seems to have happened early in the game (the split from Mackay)


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## Dona Ferentes (6 October 2022)

Net outflows totalled $3.6 billion in September.

Around half of $3.2 billion in institutional outflows related to a client’s liquidity requirements given volatility in late September.
Retail outflows reached $0.4 billion.
As at 30 Sept, had $50.9 billion in funds under management (FUM)

_once a falling knife, now a fallen knife.  $10.70 a share, down 8% today_


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## Dona Ferentes (6 January 2023)

Dona Ferentes said:


> _once a falling knife, now a fallen knife.  $10.70 a share, down 8% today_



_And December brought no cheer:_
Magellan tumbles 10pc.​....now at lows of $8.73

December net outflows were $2.6 billion and, coupled with falling markets, MFG has seen assets under management falling by $4.9 billion, to $45.3 billion from $50.2 billion.


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## peter2 (6 January 2023)

Could have been worded better. Fees are meaningful if you're paying them.


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## divs4ever (6 January 2023)

peter2 said:


> View attachment 151313
> 
> Could have been worded better. Fees are meaningful if you're paying them.



 definitely meaningful to the client   , the theory  is ... if the over-performance fees are 20% the client and the taxman man  divvy up the rest of the extra profits 

 i don't mind paying the active managers extra IF the perform ( or outperform ) most of the time 

but persistent  under-performers are not looked upon kindly


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## Gretsch (6 January 2023)

They've performed well up until COVID hit and U know who did a runner, a financial adviser I know says they're worth hanging on, wonder where to now?


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## divs4ever (6 January 2023)

Gretsch said:


> They've performed well up until COVID hit and U know who did a runner, a financial adviser I know says they're worth hanging on, wonder where to now?



well there is an industry-wide trend ( out-flows in most of the fund managers ) , it will take something special  to resist that 

 start  a new strategy to attract some of that money allegedly on the side-lines , perhaps ?


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 January 2023)

Gretsch said:


> They've performed well up until COVID hit and U know who did a runner, a financial adviser I know says they're worth hanging on, wonder where to now?



Mate, if a financial advisor told you to hold on to this dog, I’d be selling it if I were you. 

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (6 January 2023)

Gretsch said:


> They've performed well up until COVID hit and U know who did a runner, a financial adviser I know says they're worth hanging on, wonder where to now?



I doubt an adviser has MFG in a client's portfolio; more likely exposure to the  Magellan Global managed fund or the listed MGF equivalent, as a legitimate allocation to achieve international exposure as part of the asset allocation based on client's risk profile.


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## Gretsch (6 January 2023)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I doubt an adviser has MFG in a client's portfolio; more likely exposure to the  Magellan Global managed fund or the listed MGF equivalent, as a legitimate allocation to achieve international exposure as part of the asset allocation based on client's risk profile.



I was referring to their funds, not the group (MFG).


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## divs4ever (6 January 2023)

well MFG  is a manager of funds , the logical approach would be to create a new fund ( or LIC ) folks might like to invest in , this isn't their first rodeo , and they MIGHT have to wait a bit for the targeted market to ease a bit more ( cheaper entries )

 apart  from the out-flows are  any of the current managed funds under liquidity pressure 

, smaller can be nimble , and in a choppy market that can be helpful 

 ALSO if they drop out of the XJO that is less shares available to be lent out to short-sellers ( and that might be a positive as well )


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 January 2023)

MFG was like a football team with one great player, ole Douglass. 

While he was scoring the value of the club went up and up and attracted more and more fans. 

He had his own style of play, often didn't train with the team and was looked upon like a guru who could never lose. 

Even some of the staff, trainers, water carriers other players and masseurs were encouraged to borrow money to buy shares in the club at many, many, multiples of what it is worth now. 

Then some of the fans became disenchanted as he stopped scoring goals. 

Dwindling became the buzzword, let us dwindle out of this fubar, said many of the fans paying for high priced tickets. 

So everyone left and then ole Douglass got sick and was paid good sick leave and no new fans with any sense will come to watch them play.

And that is where the football club called MFG is at now. 

gg


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## divs4ever (6 January 2023)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> MFG was like a football team with one great player, ole Douglass.
> 
> While he was scoring the value of the club went up and up and attracted more and more fans.
> 
> ...




 MAYBE , 
since Hamish  is no longer 'the great hope '  would they take a lesson from Geoff Wilson and start buying smaller LICs and fund managers  ?

 chasing discounted assets , FUM and investment staff 

 ( just wondering because if they did i hold several potential targets , and am guessing but MFG is more likely to offer scrip or scrip + cash deals )

 surely someone like SOL would try to buy up MFG  as well  ( since they bought MLT )


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 January 2023)

divs4ever said:


> MAYBE ,
> since Hamish  is no longer 'the great hope '  would they take a lesson from Geoff Wilson and start buying smaller LICs and fund managers  ?
> 
> chasing discounted assets , FUM and investment staff
> ...



Getting back to the football analogy, there are heaps of other teams out there without disillusioned fans. 

They also don’t have workers and players in debt. 

And they are doing just that. 

gg


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## divs4ever (6 January 2023)

are you saying they need to approach South Sydney for management ??

they are still a top 100 company  ( even MYR could  lure a take-over offer ) ( chasing the 'brand ' )


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## Garpal Gumnut (Saturday at 8:42 AM)

divs4ever said:


> are you saying they need to approach South Sydney for management ??
> 
> they are still a top 100 company  ( even MYR could  lure a take-over offer ) ( chasing the 'brand ' )



The "brand" is the problem. 

If they changed their name to Adani they might have a chance.

gg


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## divs4ever (Saturday at 1:06 PM)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The "brand" is the problem.
> 
> If they changed their name to Adani they might have a chance.
> 
> gg



what !  worse than AMP ??

i could mention some other small fund managers that first changed their name , and then disappeared 

 it will be educational to see where MFG goes next 

 but first they need some success with their managed funds  ( to attract more investor money ) can they do it  ?


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