# NST - Northern Star Resources



## System

Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) explores and develops mineral resources in the prospective Kimberley region of Western Australia. The Company has three exploration project groups, covering an area of 3500sqkm in the mineral rich Halls Creek district.

http://www.nsrltd.com


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## nioka

July Month Summary
Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) is pleased to advise that it has enjoyed a bumper start to its ownership of the Paulsens Gold Mine in Western Australia, with gold poured in July exceeding budget at a record of 10,546 ounces. This result compares with the budget forecast of 8,707 ounces set at the time Northern Star agreed to acquire Paulsens. It also compares well with the Project’s previous monthly record of 9078 ounces achieved in mid 2006. The record achievementin July was assisted by some late June production which carried into the following month and made all the more significant as the processing plant was only available to mill for 80% of the month.
Northern Star Managing Director Bill Beament said "the results for July highlighted the potential for Paulsens to outperform the targets set by the Company in coming months."
The underground operation produced 10,529 ounces from 26,898 tonnes @ 12.2 g/t, this figure includes 4,212 tonnes of low grade material @ 1.3 g/t. This tonnage is the third best monthly production since mining began 6 years. As at the end of the month the surface stockpiles ready forprocessing contain 10,679 ounces of gold.
It is NST's intention to report monthly over the coming months as to the performance of the Paulsens Operation.


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## laurie

This must be flying under the radar on the ASX and also here with the last post on the 12th-August-2010 12:54 PM!. Jumped on at 30c last week and now its .435c with the price of gold breaking towards the $1500 mark this surely is a GOLD MINE in more ways than one paid off $15M debt noe they are debt free  

laurie


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## toocool

I got in at .285  

A little surprised at how well its taken off maybe a little pull back coming ??

Good volumes in the last week too.... one to watch


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## theartglasshouse

I got in at .365. Still happy about that and might buy some more. This one is definitely flying under the radar. Would be good see it stay above the .40 barrier...


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## muzzza64

theartglasshouse said:


> I got in at .365. Still happy about that and might buy some more. This one is definitely flying under the radar. Would be good see it stay above the .40 barrier...




I was lucky to be in at 19.5 but have seen some troubling lows @ 12 cents. 80% of my portfolio is reliant on NST going gangbusters. I herar the guy who organised the float is a real winner, but it has taken a LONG time to get to steady 40's. He made comments that this stock is well valued at a dollar. So thats where I see myself shedding 25% of my stock.


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## theartglasshouse

Excellent run this week, am thoroughly happy. Hopefully this bit of a run will help it stay over the .40 mark.


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## laurie

Got a speeding ticket tonight at 5:20pm same reply from every company "me know nothing"


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## theartglasshouse

Still in the high 40's, which is good


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## theartglasshouse

Some great gains on this one  Am loving this stock, hopefully this rally will keep it up above the $0.50 mark for the future.


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## jancha

Does anyone know cost of producing and the quality of gold on this one?
Noticed NST got a nice plug on Your money your call.


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## AngusSmart

they were around the $700 mark for cash costs.

and i think will easily see over the 100k peryear make soon. 

quiet rapid growth with this company..


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## investorpaul

Hi all

what is everyones thoughts on future upside (not after a SP target) but opinions in regard to exploration, production, etc. I.e. what will drive the sp in the med term:

1. obviosuly gold price
2. Production increases?
3. Mine expansion?

I am just after some general commentary. I have been researching some Goldies lately and have spent many hours examining companys before deciding not to invest. Before I go and spend this weekend on NST Im just after some general feedback.


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## AngusSmart

Yeah mate its well worth the read, the management is doing a fantastic job.

ticks just about all the boxes.


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## mr. jeff

A bit of reading and NST looks to be moving in the right direction, good grades, production is solid and costs have been reducing. MC approx 205M and producing around 77koz per year with expansion planned eo cy 12 to exceed 100koz then on to 200koz. 
Drilling to extend Voyager appears to be very successful with some recent good intercepts. Reserves are 668koz at 2.91 g/t. and 31M cash.
I do not hold, thought some might be interested in an outline. Read the latest quarterly to get the picture, the exploration upside is there seemingly as well...





Sitting near highs, market likes it.


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## Chasero

I find that NST and RRL have been REALLY strong.

Too bad I only trend followed NST with 5% of my portfolio 

Looking to top up if the price hits a tad lower


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## mr. jeff

Chasero said:


> Looking to top up if the price hits a tad lower




Does this mean that you are only interested in NST if the POG falls dramatically, the company strikes problems, or the GFC 2 really gets going? 

I'm waiting until the price is high enough, then I'll buy, and you can see the obvious level on the chart.


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## Chasero

mr. jeff said:


> Does this mean that you are only interested in NST if the POG falls dramatically, the company strikes problems, or the GFC 2 really gets going?
> 
> I'm waiting until the price is high enough, then I'll buy, and you can see the obvious level on the chart.




I've held it since around 40c, so I'm looking to top up if it hits around 45c (which I very much doubt) I already missed my chance once as I bought into another stock.. so not going to make the same mistake twice...

Also, what do you mean you are waiting till the price is high enough? I try to not buy shares at their highs as I look to buy in when people do the heavy selling. (i.e. on large down days)


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## mr. jeff

I would be assuming that things were looking better generally in order for the price to approach highs, and then further assuming that it wasn't weakly approaching its previous highs, I would be looking to get into it on the breakout (yes many things needing to happen, but that is why there are 2000 stocks to look through). 

NST clearly offers good gold exposure but I don't like buying in when it is not showing strength, in this case it is not clearly going up in my mind, it may strike trouble and head back into the range.
As for your entry at 40c,  everyone has their style - it sounds like you would be selling today and if so, then 47% profit and that is a great result, I would be very happy with that!


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## Chasero

mr. jeff said:


> I would be assuming that things were looking better generally in order for the price to approach highs, and then further assuming that it wasn't weakly approaching its previous highs, I would be looking to get into it on the breakout (yes many things needing to happen, but that is why there are 2000 stocks to look through).
> 
> NST clearly offers good gold exposure but I don't like buying in when it is not showing strength, in this case it is not clearly going up in my mind, it may strike trouble and head back into the range.
> As for your entry at 40c,  everyone has their style - it sounds like you would be selling today and if so, then 47% profit and that is a great result, I would be very happy with that!




Yep, NST has formed 2 tops @ 60c. Hence why I consider 55c-60c the sell range.

And I have a habit of selling early (e.g. sold CBA at 45 bought at 46 in the midst of the panic!!) Hence now I take a step back and really review my positions before deciding whether to push the all important sell button.

Im looking to buy-in NST again so I hope something shocks the market so I can grab another piece


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## mr. jeff

Kennas you got me challenged so I have checked why MC seems constrained and my conclusion is that NST's reserves are too small at this stage to support a longer term prospect; for this reason I would expect that NST's sp will be very responsive to good drilling as the increasing production profile is favourable at this time.

Hope that helps.


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## pixel

Chasero said:


> Yep, NST has formed 2 tops @ 60c. Hence why I consider 55c-60c the sell range.
> 
> And I have a habit of selling early (e.g. sold CBA at 45 bought at 46 in the midst of the panic!!) Hence now I take a step back and really review my positions before deciding whether to push the all important sell button.
> 
> Im looking to buy-in NST again so I hope something shocks the market so I can grab another piece



 I hope you did buy in, Chasero;
some of us posted NST in the Breakout Alert thread; sorry about that - I could've at least cross-linked from here.


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## laurie

Trading Halt Spectacular results hmm when a company like NST uses these words its normally conservative maybe MEGA is a more a suitable word


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## marioland

Sounds exciting! Happy holders!


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## notting

It's so big it's going to take them 2 days to announce it!


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## toocool

Hmmm

I had a profit taker on this @ .79

Just removed it, ill ride it out and see how it goes for the time being.


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## mr. jeff

notting said:


> It's so big it's going to take them 2 days to announce it!




It's just that typed in size 145 font the announcement pdf is 95 Mb so it takes a long time to upload.


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## Chasero

NST $1.00 by end of year?

Who's with me!!


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## pixel

Chasero said:


> NST $1.00 by end of year?
> 
> Who's with me!!



 I'll be happy with 83c. That's the target for the recent pennant, a continuation pattern.
Going by precedents however, the current level may well provide some strong resistance and a pullback towards the earlier consolidation and breakout levels. 62c maybe?
That's where I would start a new swing trade.


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## explod

Dah, got on last week at .63 and stopped out at .67, a few dollars made but should have held.  

Moved on to another thing, PDN.  But announcement could be juicy for NST, so cheers to holders.


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## Chasero

explod said:


> Dah, got on last week at .63 and stopped out at .67, a few dollars made but should have held.
> 
> Moved on to another thing, PDN.  But announcement could be juicy for NST, so cheers to holders.




I actually sold out some of my NST shares as well (took profits).

Damn big mistake LOL.

I wonder why it takes 2 days to announce something. Will be interesting to see the action on NST tomorrow!


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## investorpaul

Chasero said:


> I actually sold out some of my NST shares as well (took profits).
> 
> Damn big mistake LOL.
> 
> I wonder why it takes 2 days to announce something. Will be interesting to see the action on NST tomorrow!




I spoke to Bill yesterday at The Gold Symposium. He told a crowd of approx 600 that the announcement is related to drill results and nothing more.

Maybe news leaked so they decided to put it in a TH, rather than risk a speeding ticket by the ASX


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## drillinto

November 16, 2011

Northern Star Gets Ready To Redefine The Word “Spectacular” With Drill Results From Paulsens Due Imminently

By Our Man in Oz
www.minesite.com ( free registration )

The word “spectacular” is about to be redefined, when it comes to gold intersections. Either that, or Northern Star Resources will be on the receiving end of a heavy dose of disappointment when its shares come back from suspension on Thursday 17th November. That’s because the company put itself into a trading halt on the ASX on Tuesday 15th “pending release of spectacular drill results from the Paulsens Gold Mine”. 


But given that last week the company’s shares enjoyed a strong upward share price run from assays also described as “spectacular”, and given that the company used the same adjective in its September quarterly report, it had better be pretty good time round. After all, the company filed the mouth-watering assay of up to 638 grams a tonne (20.5 ounces a tonne) without a request for a trading suspension, which means tomorrow’s should be even better. Either that or Northern Star will be accused of gilding the drill results.



After all, that “spectacular” 638 gram intersection managed to move the shares up by A11 cents, or 17 per cent, to A75 cents. That price, the last trade before the ASX agreed to a halt, means that the shares have almost doubled over the past six weeks, and tripled over the last 12 months.



Most of the increased interest in Northern Star can be traced to the Paulsens mine, which it acquired in July last year after paying A$40 million to Intrepid Mines. At the time, Intrepid was seen as getting the better end of the transaction. Not today. Paulsens, under a management team led by Bill Beament, has been the subject of a classic makeover. Costs have been slashed after the company took full control of the mining process, expanded production, accelerated exploration, and acquired nearby assets. This calendar year alone should see Northern Star generate A$40 million in surplus cash from production of 75,000 ounces of gold at a cost of around A$682 an ounce. It will also push ahead with plans to grow the business to 200,000 ounces a year.



Impressive as the financial numbers are, the real interest in Australia today revolves around the straightforward question: what does it take to halt trading in a company because of potentially “spectacular” assays, when a previous spectacular result of 638 grams was not enough to stop trading? 



One possibility is that word of the latest assay results has been leaked to the market, though given the tight-lipped nature of the management team a more reasonable explanation is that something ultra-special has been received back from the company’s primary assay laboratory. The initial result is now being re-checked by a second lab to avoid the embarrassment suffered by Venus Metals two weeks ago when it was forced to retract an assay of 4.12 grams per tonne over 82 metres when a check later found minimal gold. Mega oops, and a share price which crashed from A90 cents to A54 cents.



Northern Star, unless the stars are misaligned, will not repeat that mistake because it is in the middle of a busy promotional season, having hauled a tour group of stockbrokers and journalists to its Paulsens site in the iron ore rich Pilbara district of Western Australia last Friday. The first analyst reports from that inspection of the company’s assets have been enthusiastic. Argonaut Securities has describing the drilling results as the best so far – and that was before Tuesday’s suspension request.



Argonaut told clients that the latest drilling confirmed high-grade mineralisation 150 metres down plunge and 50 metres east of the resource envelope reported in March, and that it suggests that two mineralised lodes, Voyager 1 and Voyager 2, might merge at depth. Argonaut wrote that the drill results were a good pointer to the next resource upgrade and represented steady progress in the company’s “two-stage journey from 75,000oz a year to 200,000oz a year.” The company’s plan is to lift output to 100,000 ounces by December next year, and then to add another 100,000 ounces through the construction of a stand-alone plant at the recently acquired, nearby Ashburton project.



At Paulsens is Northern Star has picked up where Intrepid left off, extracting most of its ore from the Voyager 1 orebody while making brisk progress drilling the look-alike Voyager 2 structure. It’s also seeking a third target which it describes as a potential “structural repeat” of the Paulsens quartz host vein on the other side of a gabbro rock intrusion. The theory is that the series of lodes which make up the Voyager system will be repeated in mirror image.



Meanwhile, the production numbers continue to look good. In the September quarter the company produced 17,043 ounces of gold from 84,735 tonnes milled at a recovery grade of 6.74 grams per tonne. But the new material, from the first “spectacular” drill result from intersections in the Voyager 1 lode, compares very well to that. The “spectacular” intersection rang in at 13 metres at 45.1 grams per tonne, with an internal slice in that intercept of 6.6 metres at 82.2 grams, and 0.6 metres at the top assay of 638 grams per tonne.



The super-rich, but narrow assay result is what makes headlines, but the real meat in the Northern Star sandwich lies in thicker and lower grade assays which are following on from earlier results. For instance, on October 13th the company reported 18.8 metres at 62.7 grams per tonne and 6.4 metres at 120.2 grams, assays which have encouraged Bill and his team to locate a third underground drilling rig at Paulsens, and to start designing a new mine plan which will incorporate more ore from Paulsens, and possibly ore hauled from Ashburton too, before it gets its own processing plant. All that is in the future. For now, investors want to see the real meaning of spectacular.
......................................................................


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## mr. jeff

Not a bad article, thanks drillinto.



			
				ASX release said:
			
		

> Drilling at Paulsens Gold Mine in WA returns 0.8m at
> 12,718gpt (12.7 kg/t or 1.27%); Total intersection of
> 5.6m at 1,713gpt




Read the announcement of 12kg/t strike and further intercepts, high grade and justifiably called spectacular. Previous drilling has also been exceptional and with the drilling set to continue, NST should see further strength.


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## tech/a

Sold entire holding at $.89c

Will see how excited the rest of the holders are by tonight.


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## explod

tech/a said:


> Sold entire holding at $.89c
> 
> Will see how excited the rest of the holders are by tonight.




Well done tech, "buy the roumour sell the fact" ;or

a bit of a ramp down for some more.

Could be Lasaters Reef or Poseidon.

Wonder how many tons of dirt with 12,178 g/t there are.   Must be dreamin.


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## tech/a

Im happy to buy a pullback.
(If there is one) Id expect some filling of the current gap
80c looks about right (Technically).


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## sammy84

tech/a said:


> Sold entire holding at $.89c
> 
> Will see how excited the rest of the holders are by tonight.




Sold my entire holding at $.88c

Agree with your reasoning. The probabilities of a pull back after such a breakaway are high. Move on to the next trade and re-enter if NST provides a new low risk entry.


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## redsmartie

Chasero said:


> NST $1.00 by end of year?
> 
> Who's with me!!




If they can add to the present production values, the price will go up. You cannot fool the market with a promise of increasing production unless you do the wording and that goes something like "i have struck the gold and the mining operation is returning more profits than before" and that is if you are a net producer of Gold.


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## tech/a

Ooooo

Missed to by that much!

Holding off Still think it has potential for more but after a 50% run for me Im happy to sit and watch for another opportunity.(In this or other stock)


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## notting

They left a lot of time for the entire universe to know they were about to make a *spectacular announcement*.  
You would imagine that every man and his dog who was going to jump did. 
There is nothing like a gold mine to get the testosterone pumping and mouses clicking.
Then there are those who cannot bring themselves to buy on a leap like that and wait for a pull back usually for a long, long, long time.


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## explod

Well perhaps I am dumb, but on the weakness early lunch I saw some big buys sneaking in and could not help myself for a good chunk at .86

So cheers to holders.

But do wish I had not sold last week for just a 4% gain.  So duh.. again.


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## tech/a

explod said:


> Well perhaps I am dumb, but on the weakness early lunch I saw some big buys sneaking in and could not help myself for a good chunk at .86
> 
> So cheers to holders.
> 
> But do wish I had not sold last week for just a 4% gain.  So duh.. again.




Yes I see the temptation.

*BUT*





Playing Golf most of tomorrow so wish you guys all the best of luck.


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## explod

tech/a said:


> Yes I see the temptation.
> 
> *BUT*
> 
> View attachment 45210
> 
> 
> Playing Golf most of tomorrow so wish you guys all the best of luck.




Cheers tech, off in the morning for a few days away myself, will let the trade ride for awhile as in my view there will be some legs later on from the fundamental side, but love your technical insights and good luck at the golf.


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## theartglasshouse

Great gains today. This stock always puts a smile on my face. Looking forward to a good 2012, think it will blow my 12 month target right out of the water at this rate.


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## Chasero

theartglasshouse said:


> Great gains today. This stock always puts a smile on my face. Looking forward to a good 2012, think it will blow my 12 month target right out of the water at this rate.




Yes, still holding atm. NST definitely the winning stock of the year 

$1.00 here we come baby!

Will probably top up soon. What a great xmas present


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## theartglasshouse

Chasero said:


> Yes, still holding atm. NST definitely the winning stock of the year
> 
> $1.00 here we come baby!
> 
> Will probably top up soon. What a great xmas present




Agreed chasero! This has been my favourite LT hold over 2011 and has never failed to please. I will do a top up over Dec/Jan and then it let it ride for a while. Glad I am not day trading this as it is surpassing all my expectations so far for a quick in and out. :shoot::shoot::shoot:


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## marioland

Today would be a good entry point, IMO.


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## Joe Blow

marioland said:


> Today would be a good entry point, IMO.




Hi marioland, can you please elaborate a little and explain why you believe this to be the case?


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## marioland

Lower volume, gold price dropped, SP dropped 2%. Long term buy I think well worth it.


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## joea

Drilling at Paulsens Gold mine returns one of the best intersections in Australian gold mining history.
12.7kg/t or 1.27%.
Info from ReadCorporate. 18/11/2011
joea


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## tech/a

Very Very Strong.
Technically Serious strong volume began at .90
Very strong support at .85/86. If I wasnt on a Golf course
my buy would have been there but 90 will have to do.
Belted it well past resistance.
In again!


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## mr. jeff

Bought more today as well.
I expect that that the institutional buying will carry this higher, it is comparatively cheap when looking at other Australian based gold producers. Assuming the market cap of 263M is correct at this time, I would not be surprised to see it revised to around $375 over the next 6 months assuming gold and dollar do not turn inside out. 

Don't like seeing a large gap left behind, but with this news it seems that it may well be as NST now offers the potential for a large improvement on size of it's resource and a good extension to both life of mine and production rate. SLR moved very strongly over the past 12 months going from ramping up, to steady, to increasing production, NST may do the same if the gold environment holds up.

Nice to know others coming back, lucky enough to see 87c first thing this morning on an offer left in the market overnight.
Starting to sound like a fundamental, but I will be out as soon as it sees serious selling; no hesitation.


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## toocool

toocool said:


> Hmmm
> 
> I had a profit taker on this @ .79
> 
> Just removed it, ill ride it out and see how it goes for the time being.




I was out of town for Thursday and Friday and let this ride with a stop @ .68.

Ajusted the stop to tick below Thursdays low @.82 an was expecting to be stopped out.

Getting home at 7pm Friday to log in a see more gains was very pleasing.

In at .61.

PS, 
Tech/a, 
Stop at tick below Thursdays low .81 or Fridays bar low .84 ? 
Do you think is best.


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## mr. jeff

tech/a said:


> Ooooo
> 
> Missed to by that much!
> 
> Holding off Still think it has potential for more but after a 50% run for me Im happy to sit and watch for another opportunity.(In this or other stock)




Tech it appears that you entered before the first breakout to get a 50% return. I entered at 65c which means I do not have a 50% gain, but was the best entry I could get once it was clear there was serious volume coming in. 

How did you identify the trade before any large volume or break of consolidation or were you holding from up bar mid october ? 

Not looking to cross examine, but having an extra 5 cents at that stage makes quite a large difference to profit on the trade, ie. 8%.


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## tech/a

Picked it up on a volume search intraday.
I have two ways of finding them
(1) yahoo top volume report which refreshes.
(2) intrady just data search at 11am

When I saw it it was 60c that's what I bought it at


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## mr. jeff

tech/a said:


> Picked it up on a volume search intraday.
> I have two ways of finding them
> (1) yahoo top volume report which refreshes.
> (2) intrady just data search at 11am
> 
> When I saw it it was 60c that's what I bought it at




Well done. 

I fail to check intraday volumes regularly, that is my weakness, hence not discovering good trades until the day after. I have been caught many times over-enthusiastically  entering potential moves and for this reason (after much learning) wait for a confirmation, but of course this can come on the same day as the break.
Look forward to Monday to see what strength is there.


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## tech/a

From the searchi go to an intraday chart to look for a low risk entry.
Ibwill set Poitou size to the timeframe I choose to trade.
If it moves fast. Will leave e trade in the timeframe I've chosen
If it moves normally or consolidates to where I can set the stop to B/E then I'll leave it as a daily chart.

I understand the desire to see confirmation. But as you say good moves are missed and more importantly for me the distance from entry to stop often widens.
This kills a very important aspect of my trading.
I can't take a large position with a small capital risk ( sometimes .5% of capital)
I'd rather be wrong 4 out of 5 times than take a late trade.

Dont know if that helps


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## tech/a

Sold latest parcel at B/E .90c


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## notting

Gosh that was a quick out.
I find it almost impossible to buy when they fly like.
It's drifted down a bit on decreasing volume.
Should probably follow the gold price in an exagerated manner once it settles/consolidates.


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## tech/a

notting said:


> Gosh that was a quick out.
> I find it almost impossible to buy when they fly like.
> It's drifted down a bit on decreasing volume.
> Should probably follow the gold price in an exagerated manner once it settles/consolidates.




In fast moving markets and in markets where any trend is rarely maintained I become very risk averse.Where I have an opportunity to exit for Brokerage rather than sitting and Waiting for a lower stop to be taken out I just get out.
Then Im back in control.


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## notting

Just had a little trade filled at 80.5 it hit 78.5. Kind of forgot I had left the buy there!
Volumes kicking between those levels. Maybe just old trades like mine being dumped on, or buyers coming in.  I can't tell


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## tech/a

notting said:


> Just had a little trade filled at 80.5 it hit 78.5. Kind of forgot I had left the buy there!
> Volumes kicking between those levels. Maybe just old trades like mine being dumped on, or buyers coming in.  I can't tell




Mine filled at 80 c


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## explod

Could be a good day, they have just announced better grades and increased resource this morning.

After shooting through early for the weekend left my trade on the table, but it will pick up to a new high soon enough in my view..


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## mr. jeff

NST has been strengthening (?) and has seen reduced selling over the last few days. Whether it manages to break above that 93 c mark will be interesting to watch. I sold at 92c on Friday and am thinking that perhaps that was not the right move to make....

Solid performance so far, a break of this level may signal a continuation of the move. If gold holds up there is certainly a case for this to continue when looking at the fundamentals and technically it may make a jump shortly to clear that level, or get rejected. Opinions ? Sorry I cant post a chart, don't have the correct tools.

(Please don't bother telling me about fundamentals not being relevant) !


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## notting

It's funny how gold stocks generally trade along with their US dollar value.  As the Euro strengthens the US$ looks cheaper makeing gold look more expensive.
I guess as long as the smoke and mirrors of Euroland are keeping up the mirrage then goldies will be doing ok.  
This could go on for a while but I'll be out as soon as it gets real again.


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## Chasero

mr. jeff said:


> NST has been strengthening (?) and has seen reduced selling over the last few days. Whether it manages to break above that 93 c mark will be interesting to watch. I sold at 92c on Friday and am thinking that perhaps that was not the right move to make....
> 
> Solid performance so far, a break of this level may signal a continuation of the move. If gold holds up there is certainly a case for this to continue when looking at the fundamentals and technically it may make a jump shortly to clear that level, or get rejected. Opinions ? Sorry I cant post a chart, don't have the correct tools.
> 
> (Please don't bother telling me about fundamentals not being relevant) !




Yep, I am still holding as NST just bounces right back every time...

It went down to 82c and bounced right back... still waiting for $1 to hit


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## marioland

With the ongoing increased gold production and the great results, anything under $1 I reckon is cheap buy.


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## kr1zh

this stock is now 99 cent. $1 is not very far...


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## TMC93

Im a bit worried about the growth rate of this stock, i bought a small parcel at 89c a little while ago. Does anyone think that the market is overpricing this stock? The chart is impressive though


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## kr1zh

The trendline still shows uptrend, it might experience correction but let’s hope that would not be a deep correction.

I have attached the charts for references.

Can others share thoughts about this stock?


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## TMC93

Just went through $1.00


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## Chasero

Very happy man today 

Will look to re-enter further down the line. Took profits today


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## marioland

They increased production and they aim to double it over the next year. They had the richest drilling results in Australian gold mining history. They compare themselves with Ramelius Resources in the report (their share price jumped from 40c to $1.5 upon the results which were about half as good as NST) as well as Dominion Mining which were bought by Kingsgate.


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## investorpaul

TMC93 said:


> Im a bit worried about the growth rate of this stock, i bought a small parcel at 89c a little while ago. Does anyone think that the market is overpricing this stock? The chart is impressive though




Hi TMC

Not advice, but I originally was looking at buying NST at 50cents. I ended up missing the boat for a variety of reasons and now look at other options.

I guess the question to ask is what are the chances of this going to price $X and over what time frame.

If you are looking at holding for a number of years then there should be more upside to come if they can execute their proposed strategy. If you are looking at shorter term opportunities is there something that may deliver a greater percentage in the same timeframe?

Say NST goes up 20%, cracking a dollar along the way. How much more room would their be based on current fundamentals? And is there another stock that has the potential to increase by more than that percentage with a similar amount of risk.

As always DYOR and for the record I do think NST is a good stock, managed well and with bright prospects. I am just waiting to see if/how it consolidates


----------



## TMC93

investorpaul said:


> Hi TMC
> 
> Not advice, but I originally was looking at buying NST at 50cents. I ended up missing the boat for a variety of reasons and now look at other options.
> 
> I guess the question to ask is what are the chances of this going to price $X and over what time frame.
> 
> If you are looking at holding for a number of years then there should be more upside to come if they can execute their proposed strategy. If you are looking at shorter term opportunities is there something that may deliver a greater percentage in the same timeframe?
> 
> Say NST goes up 20%, cracking a dollar along the way. How much more room would their be based on current fundamentals? And is there another stock that has the potential to increase by more than that percentage with a similar amount of risk.
> 
> As always DYOR and for the record I do think NST is a good stock, managed well and with bright prospects. I am just waiting to see if/how it consolidates




Thanks Paul, When i entered this stock i decided i would be happy to hold this stock for the long term as long as it keeps its appeal up. I suppose that was why i was surprised at the rise in SP today, from the last year it looks as if i bought at the top of the trend but who knows, it might just be the bottom of a large year scale trend. Will just have to wait and see how this one pans out.


----------



## investorpaul

TMC93 said:


> Thanks Paul, When i entered this stock i decided i would be happy to hold this stock for the long term as long as it keeps its appeal up. I suppose that was why i was surprised at the rise in SP today, from the last year it looks as if i bought at the top of the trend but who knows, it might just be the bottom of a large year scale trend. Will just have to wait and see how this one pans out.




Long term it has potential.

If they bring on Ashburton and increase combined production to 200k oz p.a. they will be generating some serious free cash flow. They can then use this to expand further and repeat the process.

The risk with NST at the moment is all operational (i.e. managements ability to deliver on their projections). If you believe in management then you believe in NST.

There are obviously outside forces such as the global economy and the gold price, but they cannot be managed by you or the company and would therefore affect any gold stock you invest it.


----------



## Chasero

Hm how long will gold rally till?

New year usually means a bit of a rally no?

1,600 looks like it'll continue to at least 1,650 at least.

NST should profit nicely, might hit high 80s or low 90s.

Stay strong gold!

Long NST @ 80c...


----------



## pixel

NST looks like it's close to support; but so far it's still vulnerable IMO.
If the current "flag" pattern plays out, there will be enough upside to warrant a little patience. Lacking volume is also some concern: A breakout should be supported by high volume.


----------



## explod

Support at 80 cents looks pretty good this end.

As you say volume low but improving.

Till more news it will continue to run with the price of gold IMV.


----------



## Chasero

"Technical buying could spark gold's rally, traders said. The metal is inching closer to its next critical resistance of 200-day moving average at around $US1,630 an ounce. The metal had held the chart support for almost three years until December 14."

Once $1,630 passes NST should hopefully see 86c +

Until then, let's hope gold rally doesn't fade


----------



## Chasero

Chasero said:


> "Technical buying could spark gold's rally, traders said. The metal is inching closer to its next critical resistance of 200-day moving average at around $US1,630 an ounce. The metal had held the chart support for almost three years until December 14."
> 
> Once $1,630 passes NST should hopefully see 86c +
> 
> Until then, let's hope gold rally doesn't fade




Wow, NST postive anns never stop coming.

Yesterdays ann caused traders to buy (up 3%)

Todays movement from retail investors? up 6% to 91c... 

What price is everyone selling at?

I'll hold.. for now.


----------



## mr. jeff

Assuming that gold does not fall severely, NST is an extremely good prospect right now and with a market cap of $ 287M, production and plans for 200kOz/ann in the near future, there is a very good case for continued strength, possibly up to around $450M this year.

That would be 1.40 per share which is not unrealistic. 

However gold stocks are worth being careful with as they have shown that they are not the ultimate safety that gold itself allegedly is.

NST however is a great pick in the sector.


----------



## barney

mr. jeff said:


> NST however is a great pick in the sector.





Its been an absolute stand out for sure and well done to those who got in early.   

NST recently "sold" a small tenement near Halls Creek to Bulletin Resources (BNR) which looks interesting for anyone researching minnow Gold stocks.  BNR's management are a standout imo, and the fact that they are on dealing terms with NST management certainly gets my attention.


----------



## Chasero

Read an article that there's not going to be a lot of gold buying from China this week due to preparations for Chinese New Year.

Im out of NST @ 92.5c. Looking to re-enter further down the track.


----------



## Chasero

Chasero said:


> Read an article that there's not going to be a lot of gold buying from China this week due to preparations for Chinese New Year.
> 
> Im out of NST @ 92.5c. Looking to re-enter further down the track.




Wow, big mistake selling out so early.

Who would know it would hover around 91-93c for a week then jump to 98.5c.

Always easier in hindsight.. damn those positive anns


----------



## Chasero

anyone think a cup and handle formation has formed?

The handle being the magic $1.00 resistance.

Looks to be broken today, and depending on close might have a run upwards to ~$1.20. (IMO)

I am in @ 1.045


----------



## mr. jeff

I don't know anything about cups and handles, except that I see one heading towards my face every morning, but if it holds above that $1 mark then we are looking good. 

Shall I sing NST's praises yet again ? 

As opposed to other goldies, this is the most prospective and obvious gold stock around to invest in as it  offers good production which is building rapidly, amazing resource growth which is UNDERWAY, not hoped for, and valued at a lot less than comparables. 

Not to mention that NST is not in an area where people get taken hostage or it rains for 14 months of the year. Might sound like a cheap shot at RED, but when you compare them, it highlights some things. I hold both, but at this stage, NST has a serious plan for 200kOz and great drill extensions to date. If only it was in West Africa.


----------



## jancha

mr. jeff said:


> I don't know anything about cups and handles, except that I see one heading towards my face every morning, but if it holds above that $1 mark then we are looking good.
> 
> Shall I sing NST's praises yet again ?
> 
> As opposed to other goldies, this is the most prospective and obvious gold stock around to invest in as it  offers good production which is building rapidly, amazing resource growth which is UNDERWAY, not hoped for, and valued at a lot less than comparables.
> 
> Not to mention that NST is not in an area where people get taken hostage or it rains for 14 months of the year. Might sound like a cheap shot at RED, but when you compare them, it highlights some things. I hold both, but at this stage, NST has a serious plan for 200kOz and great drill extensions to date. If only it was in West Africa.




Hate to tell you but there's only 12 months in a year. Mr Jeff can you give me an estimate on the difference between the cost in producing and taxes paid out for both NST & RED for the next 5 years while your at it with your comparision?
Both have their for & against. Value wise i would say RED imo.


----------



## Chasero

Well, if it closes at $1.05 it will be extremely bullish imo.

Long term resistance (from last qtr of 2011) of $1.00 to be broken and act as support from now on.


----------



## mr. jeff

jancha said:


> Hate to tell you but there's only 12 months in a year.




That explains a lot. When I get through grade one I will hopefully have this memorized. 

I agree that they are both attractive stocks hence why I hold both. Don't know about tax but I am considering risk which is hard to price in - such as country, weather, production, exploration and development etc. 

Haven't got time to run through pro's and cons of each in detail, especially the tax part, so just bought both. In one years time it will be interesting to see what has happened. (not that I will hold either for the entire year unless they run solidly up).


----------



## Chasero

Yep lots of action at $1.07.

The spread tomorrow is going to be huge if this closes at around $1.10 lols.


----------



## Moit

Chasero said:


> Yep lots of action at $1.07.
> 
> The spread tomorrow is going to be huge if this closes at around $1.10 lols.




Hey Mr Jeff, Jancha and Chas. I'm out of RED and into NST as of today. NST prides itself for regular Ann's and never disappoint. The buy and sell depth ratios are looking sweet. In this for the short to medium term for the moment. Whats your tech analysis on Northern Mr Jeff ??


----------



## mr. jeff

Moit said:


> Hey Mr Jeff, Jancha and Chas. I'm out of RED and into NST as of today. NST prides itself for regular Ann's and never disappoint. The buy and sell depth ratios are looking sweet. In this for the short to medium term for the moment. Whats your tech analysis on Northern Mr Jeff ??




I've been waiting for movement with NST for a while.





Technically it has broken above the last couple of months' consolidation which is good and now expect the move to hold ground above $1.00 and perhaps short term retest that level before strengthening and moving up in that channel.

I would say that POG allowing, with drilling and resource increases to forecast, could quite easily see 1.70 - 2.00 by end of the year. It's MC is 350 M which doesn't reflect the fact that NST is heading into much greater production rates and have some premium dirt to drill and dig that we already know is rich. 

You asked for technical analysis, you got both - sorry.


----------



## jancha

mr. jeff said:


> That explains a lot. When I get through grade one I will hopefully have this memorized.
> 
> I agree that they are both attractive stocks hence why I hold both. Don't know about tax but I am considering risk which is hard to price in - such as country, weather, production, exploration and development etc.
> 
> Haven't got time to run through pro's and cons of each in detail, especially the tax part, so just bought both. In one years time it will be interesting to see what has happened. (not that I will hold either for the entire year unless they run solidly up).




They both have risks but which one of the two has the most in % to gain?
Tax part is easy as RED does'nt pay any tax for the 1st five years and production costs are considerably lower than NST.
Imo RED has a bigger chance of reaching $4 before NST reaches $2 regardless of risk with country and weather.
This however is the NST thread so RED should be kept to the RED thread even if you hold both.


----------



## Moit

Thanks a lot Mr Jeff. Great T/A work. I don't think this little up ward trend has finished just yet. I'm hoping its just the beginning. I honestly believe with some of the Goldie's out there, this certainly is a standout. Theres too much going for it. Hows 12.178 kg of gold per tonne once they hit that lode. Production costs will diminish greatly. Not to mention 200 000 ounces a year...

Jancha, the fundamentals for both look great. There is of course the political and environmental risk, not to mention the extreme rain falls that could seriously effect Reds production. I believe NST will hit $2.00 before RED hits $4.00. Management for NST continue to deliver. I cant fault them or there prodjects... That in it self says a lot.

Cheers Moit. Just my thoughts...


----------



## Moit

Tech, whats your thoughts on the breakout of NST. Can you see it continuing for a while.. Breaking 12 month highs, above average volume. Whats your thoughts...

Cheers Moit.

By the way no chiefs...


----------



## tech/a

Nice!!

Click to expand


----------



## Moit

Good stuff, thanks Tech. Appreciated. So if I'm correct you'll be throwing in a buy order in 1 or 2 cents above the closing high, lol...


Thanks again to you and Jeff...


----------



## tech/a

Moit said:


> Good stuff, thanks Tech. Appreciated. So if I'm correct you'll be throwing in a buy order in 1 or 2 cents above the closing high, lol...
> 
> 
> Thanks again to you and Jeff...




For me I'll have a buy stop 1 c above today's high with a stop at 30 % of the range of today's bar--- incase it reverses quickly.
If that isn't taken out then it's wait and see for a clear signal.


----------



## Chasero

Could be green day today amid a sea of red.

Go NST!


----------



## papatee

tech/a said:


> For me I'll have a buy stop 1 c above today's high with a stop at 30 % of the range of today's bar--- incase it reverses quickly.




Hi Tech - am I interpreting this correctly to mean that you would have a sell stop at 1.07? 

Sorry for the stupid question . . . have been following your recent TA on RED & PEN threads recently with much interest. Am not in either stock currently but just seeking to learn as much as I can of your approach and finding the TA journey with these stocks fascinating. Still have an 'L' plate re some of the terms/concepts, so just want to make sure I am understanding correctly.  cheers


----------



## theartglasshouse

Good to see this one is finally over a dollar! More news due out in March so this might even push it further. It is online with my expections of $1.20 to $1.30 by March 2012.

Hopefully it will exceed it.


----------



## Chasero

theartglasshouse said:


> Good to see this one is finally over a dollar! More news due out in March so this might even push it further. It is online with my expections of $1.20 to $1.30 by March 2012.
> 
> Hopefully it will exceed it.




Yep, I was planning on buying at the end of Feb for upcoming news in March.

But T/A won out once $1.00 resistance was breached.


----------



## tech/a

papatee said:


> Hi Tech - am I interpreting this correctly to mean that you would have a sell stop at 1.07?
> 
> Sorry for the stupid question . . . have been following your recent TA on RED & PEN threads recently with much interest. Am not in either stock currently but just seeking to learn as much as I can of your approach and finding the TA journey with these stocks fascinating. Still have an 'L' plate re some of the terms/concepts, so just want to make sure I am understanding correctly.  cheers




Sorry was quite ambiguous.
Your correct in your assumption
I did however alter it when the low was set (well appears to be set) before the buy was taken out.

Buy was at  $1.11
Have placed the stop now at 1 tick below todays low.$1.06
So a 5c risk.
Price action is very strong--currently.


----------



## tech/a

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NST&E=ASX&N=578459

That was yesterday

Today we will have a trading halt.

How can you guys rely on Fundamental spin from companies?
Im sure your only told what they want to tell you.


----------



## 6figures

tech/a said:


> http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NST&E=ASX&N=578459
> 
> That was yesterday
> 
> Today we will have a trading halt.
> 
> How can you guys rely on Fundamental spin from companies?
> Im sure your only told what they want to tell you.




Sorry T/a so are u suggesting the rise in sp and volume is only due to this rumor? Just wanting to confirm... only new to the stock.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Moit's avatar!


----------



## Boggo

And AGS make an identical announcement at 11:48, NST at 12:16.
Any relevance I wonder ?


----------



## tech/a

Not suggesting anything.
Dont care for "WHY".

Asking the question.



> How can you guys rely on Fundamental spin from companies?
> Im sure your only told what they want to tell you.




Fundies--here at least hang on every announcement--rumor of an announcement---suggestion of an announcement.---or lack of announcements---even speculation of what will be in an announcement.

This I see as a perfect example of how manipulative this form of selective commentary can be to those who rely on it.


----------



## Chasero

Trading halt generally means good news no?


----------



## tech/a

Chasero said:


> Trading halt generally means good news no?




*And I herby rest my case!!*


----------



## Boggo

tech/a said:


> Fundies--here at least hang on every announcement--rumor of an announcement---suggestion of an announcement.---or lack of announcements---even speculation of what will be in an announcement.
> 
> This I see as a perfect example of how manipulative this form of selective commentary can be to those who rely on it.




It must be hilarious watching them watching the weather forecast on the telly when tomorrow's conditions are always based on the current chart 

"I don't believe it, I want an opinion from El Ninio"


----------



## Chasero

tech/a said:


> *And I herby rest my case!!*






How else are companies mean't to notify us of anything?

*shrug*

What do you mean by fundamental spin? They report factual findings..?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Chasero said:


> Trading halt generally means good news no?




Read the announcement - it's a capital raising.

So presumably shares will get diluted. Not a good thing (at least until said capital amounts to discoveries of more gold...).

I'm no expert though, I'd like to hear others' thoughts and am wondering why nobody else has mentioned this.


----------



## Chasero

Starcraftmazter said:


> Read the announcement - it's a capital raising.
> 
> So presumably shares will get diluted. Not a good thing (at least until said capital amounts to discoveries of more gold...).
> 
> I'm no expert though, I'd like to hear others' thoughts and am wondering why nobody else has mentioned this.




Oh wow, there's a second page.


----------



## tech/a

Chasero said:


> Trading halt generally means good news no?




Ill be selling at open.



> What do you mean by fundamental spin? They report factual findings..?




Have you ever seen a negative report other than the financials.
All positve spin.-----selective reporting.


----------



## Chasero

I thought this company was swimming in profits. No debts... now it needs more money??!!

WIll have to see price action on tuesday i guess


----------



## McLovin

tech/a]And I herby rest my case!![/QUOTE]

I don't see much FA going on. Just speculation. If you don't know that a trading halt can mean good or bad news then I don't really see you as the type to sit down and work through 5+ of financial statements and gaining a thorough understanding of the business.

There are some who can trade on fundamentals but they're pretty thin on the ground.

[QUOTE=Chasero said:


> How else are companies mean't to notify us of anything?
> 
> *shrug*
> 
> What do you mean by fundamental spin? They report factual findings..?




Companies spin announcements all the time. It's what they do. The purpose of announcements/financial reporting is to ensure the lowest cost of capital for the company, not to report "factual findings".


----------



## theartglasshouse

LOL at all the above comments! Good things on the horizon in my opinion and I bet a good acquisition will be occurring in the near future.


----------



## Chasero

theartglasshouse said:


> LOL at all the above comments! Good things on the horizon in my opinion and I bet a good acquisition will be occurring in the near future.




Yes, they are probably investing in another mine..

Going to be an expensive one seeing how $50m in cash won't cover it.

I'll probably hold till the end of march either way.


----------



## papatee

Starcraftmazter said:


> Read the announcement - it's a capital raising.
> 
> So presumably shares will get diluted. Not a good thing (at least until said capital amounts to discoveries of more gold...).
> 
> I'm no expert though, I'd like to hear others' thoughts and am wondering why nobody else has mentioned this.




Capital raising often leads to short term weakness due to:
1. Dilution as you've mentioned above
2. New shares usually issued at discount to current price, and
3. Expectation of market that price will move back towards issue price, and that stock will be able to be picked up cheaper than current levels.

These factors often put brakes on share price short-med term while new shares are issued and absorbed by market.

Exceptions to above can occur if company can get an issue away very close to (or even at premium to) current share price, or can convince market that funds raised will be utilised in way that will have an immediate & significant boost to company's prospects.

You'll just have to wait and see the terms of the raising when announced next week.



Chasero said:


> I thought this company was swimming in profits. No debts... now it needs more money??!!
> 
> WIll have to see price action on tuesday i guess




It's quite common for spec companies such as these to take advantage of any quick share price appreciation to raise a chunk of new $$$. Indeed, the cynics amongst us  would suggest that in many cases price run-ups prior to cap raising announcements are manipulated to ensure the co. can get the best price possible for the raising  

By the way, these are just general comments and not directed at NST in particular. I don't hold - just watching at present.


----------



## Chasero

papatee said:


> Capital raising often leads to short term weakness due to:
> 1. Dilution as you've mentioned above
> 2. New shares usually issued at discount to current price, and
> 3. Expectation of market that price will move back towards issue price, and that stock will be able to be picked up cheaper than current levels.
> 
> These factors often put brakes on share price short-med term while new shares are issued and absorbed by market.
> 
> Exceptions to above can occur if company can get an issue away very close to (or even at premium to) current share price, or can convince market that funds raised will be utilised in way that will have an immediate & significant boost to company's prospects.
> 
> You'll just have to wait and see the terms of the raising when announced next week.
> 
> 
> 
> It's quite common for spec companies such as these to take advantage of any quick share price appreciation to raise a chunk of new $$$. Indeed, the cynics amongst us  would suggest that in many cases price run-ups prior to cap raising announcements are manipulated to ensure the co. can get the best price possible for the raising
> 
> By the way, these are just general comments and not directed at NST in particular. I don't hold - just watching at present.




Thanks papatee.. very informative post.


----------



## Moit

Chasero said:


> Thanks papatee.. very informative post.




Hi guys. My question is why do they have to have a trading halt for a cap raising, unless they want to specify on WHAT they want the raising for. Maybe for an acquisition. Not sure.

Cheers Moit.

And Gringotts, you like my avatar do you. That's me all over mate, lol.


----------



## tech/a

Will continue to play this as planned.

Click to expand


----------



## Sutekh

tech/a said:


> Ill be selling at open.






tech/a said:


> Will continue to play this as planned.
> 
> Click to expand
> 
> View attachment 46120




Hi tech/a, 'as planned', meaning you will sell on open or at your stop of ~1.06, should it fall?

Watching this one with extreme interest.


----------



## tech/a

At stop.$1.06

AND OR

--Ill hold through open.
re adjust my stop at break even ($1.11) and watch.

Fundies should be all excited on this mornings announcements.


----------



## Chasero

So shares slightly diluted @ 98c... but they are trying to offset this by the ann today.

Will be interesting to see what happens.


----------



## Chasero

Chasero said:


> So shares slightly diluted @ 98c... but they are trying to offset this by the ann today.
> 
> Will be interesting to see what happens.




Ouch.. -10%... need to hope for some late insto buying in the arvo...

Oh well... stuck long on this one


----------



## jah008

Chasero said:


> Ouch.. -10%... need to hope for some late insto buying in the arvo...
> 
> Oh well... stuck long on this one





My stop got jumped this morning. Bit of a crazy opening. I decided to hold and see what happens towards this afternoon. I think investors will buy up all the stock that is selling cheap later this arvo. Seems to be coming back up a little. See what comes of it.


----------



## Chasero

jah008 said:


> My stop got jumped this morning. Bit of a crazy opening. I decided to hold and see what happens towards this afternoon. I think investors will buy up all the stock that is selling cheap later this arvo. Seems to be coming back up a little. See what comes of it.




If I had any free capital I would've bought it at 0.93 >_>

So many people selling below the CR bid.. oh my!

NST is definitely not worth below 98c...


----------



## mr. jeff

placement at 90c.
Probably not easily accessible to people who will take 10% gain anyway...
Will know shortly how much buying support there is at these levels. Just adding cash in while they can it seems.
A lot of advertising for this stock recently so hopefully the momentum stays.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Can't believe I had a chance to buy at 92c 

Serves me right for sleeping in 

What does everyone make of the 2 largest shareholders selling their take? Is it purely for the instos or something else to it? Do you think there will be more demand than the amount of shares they sell from them?


----------



## tech/a

Gapped straight through my stop.
Will massage myself out throughout the day.
Next------


----------



## notting

So will they offer their retail share holders anything?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

notting said:


> So will they offer their retail share holders anything?




Doesn't look like it.


----------



## papatee

Moit said:


> Hi guys. My question is why do they have to have a trading halt for a cap raising, unless they want to specify on WHAT they want the raising for. Maybe for an acquisition. Not sure.
> 
> Cheers Moit.
> 
> And Gringotts, you like my avatar do you. That's me all over mate, lol.




Hi Moit

The trading halt is called to try to prevent the possibility of any punters with inside knowledge being able to trade prior to the rest of the market being informed of the terms of CR. It also ensures there is no extreme price volatility and/or manipulation during the period the raising is being finalised, which could potentially derail the entire exercise.

The details of what they will use the raising for are usually provided as part of the CR announcement, not in the trading halt announcement.

P.S. Love your avatar too Moit . . . . and totally identify, lol!! 




papatee said:


> Exceptions to above can occur if company can get an issue away very close to (or even at premium to) current share price, or can convince market that funds raised will be utilised in way that will have an immediate & significant boost to company's prospects.




Issue is at a fair discount and nothing earthshattering re how funds will be used so not surprising to see this drop back towards issue price this morning. Perhaps the funds are to be used for a near future acquisition but at this point just appears to be an addition to their bank account and dilution for shareholders. Doesn't affect their fundamentals though and some may view this as an opportunity to top-up on price retrace.

Tech - will be interested to see your analysis later of today's action and likely implications/conclusions from TA perspective.


----------



## tech/a

Will take a closer look tonight.
But Ive just finished getting out at .99c
Ouch!

Currently we have huge volume on the gap down.
Lots of supply.
*I expect this gap to be difficult to close.*

The next few days will tell a tale.
But for me Im out waiting again for opportunity if it presents.


----------



## Moit

Hi all.
Well a disappointing day for NST. I'm just praying the Sp gets back to its highs sooner than later...

Thanks Papatee, but i do realize that the idea of a trading halt is so important information isn't leaked to the investment community... It all makes sense now. (Hence the big spike a few days ago from 96 cents to $1.10 ish.) Crickey if knew about it, i would have sold out to. Its just ashame instos drove the price up, and sucked in us mum and dad investors. Then drove it all back down to collect. What hope have we got while ever they can do that.

Hi Tech. You weren't sticking around for a few days to see how things could have panned out. 

What worries me is that there was mention of 50 million shares and what are we at so far 43 odd million, minus what us smaller retail investors have bought and sold. So will this continue for a bit longer. My thinking yes. Anyhow just my thoughts with a little bit of frustration.

Cheers Moit.


----------



## notting

May go and try TRY


----------



## McLovin

Moit said:


> Its just ashame instos drove the price up, and sucked in us mum and dad investors.




If you're going to swim in the deep end you better know how to swim...

A capital raising isn't necessarily bad news. Mining companies are capital intensive during their ramp-up phase.


----------



## tech/a

> Hi Tech. You weren't sticking around for a few days to see how things could have panned out.




No
Ill watch without $s at risk.
Slippage like this trade are fortunately rare.

Every now and then I get a positive gap.
This negative one balances the numbers a little.

A cost of trading.
On with the next one.
I'll be watching. this one for opportunity.


----------



## marioland

Very soon we will have an acquisition otherwise I don't see the point of the recent CR. We will be back above the $1 mark by the end of the week!


----------



## Starcraftmazter

marioland said:


> Very soon we will have an acquisition otherwise I don't see the point of the recent CR. We will be back above the $1 mark by the end of the week!




I was thinking they simply wanted to conduct further exploration?


----------



## barney

Starcraftmazter said:


> I was thinking they simply wanted to conduct further exploration?




Management have been strongly hinting (actually stating) for some time that they are in the market for aquisitions .....

The real money will be made by those who work out which Company/Companies NST are going to go after ...... I have a couple of candidates, but the price action on them doesn't parallel my suspicions at this stage .... more water required to flow under the proverbial bridge before the story unfolds methinks .......


----------



## suhm

well they need a refractory ore processing plant and they have a jv with a junior with a resource within trucking distance to paulsens. The first would require more money than the other.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

So you are saying they want to purchase a gold mining company with an ore processing plant so that they do not need to build one themselves?

Presumably this will save quite a bit of time and bring forward the production schedule?

However do gold producers typically have a lot of spare capacity in their plants?


----------



## 6figures

where u guys think its headed? down again today near CR price..


----------



## notting

Will take a bite about 10% below that.


----------



## Chasero

Am frankly quite shocked at the sp today!!

0.895 ouch!! This CR.. really!


----------



## Chasero

Finally looks like NST has hit a bottom.. sellers stopped selling today


----------



## Fantasy09

Not so much reaction to today announcement, any ideas why...


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Fantasy09 said:


> Not so much reaction to today announcement, any ideas why...




It's up on a down day when most gold miners are down as well - what else do you want? :


----------



## Chasero

Fantasy09 said:


> Not so much reaction to today announcement, any ideas why...




Sometimes it takes a few days for anns to take effect..

Plus considering yesterdays spike of +~8%.. I expected today to just break even.. yet looks like another up day.

Still trapped LONG on this one.. *Grumble*


----------



## mr. jeff

Fantasy09 said:


> Not so much reaction to today announcement, any ideas why...




At least mention what the announcement was! We don't have the automatic posting function but ASF has more contributing members and less rampers/dumpers. Lets keep it that way by making an effort for the benefit of others.





Interesting announcement. Will be waiting on drill results to push the 200kOz/annum target along though, that is where this stock will really find it's strength. As soon as it can make the case, would expect to see the market cap at more like $550-600M, as opposed to current $376M or share price to head from 0.965 up to 1.45. I do acknowledge that this is very rough though.


----------



## explod

At Paulsens they are reporting grades of 105 ounces to the ton.

Read Wrap today (The Australian).

 Can this be for real ?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

explod said:


> At Paulsens they are reporting grades of 105 ounces to the ton.
> 
> Read Wrap today (The Australian).
> 
> Can this be for real ?




Have a look at the March 6th report:
http://www.nsrltd.com/download-355.html



> The results include 1m at 3390gpt gold (*3.4kg/t*). This was part of an overall diamond drill hole intersection of
> 8.4m at 412.5gpt (Fig 1). It follows the recently announced Voyager 2 intersection of 0.8m at 12178gpt,
> believed to one of the highest grades ever recorded in the Australian gold mining industry.




And Voyager 1 



> At Voyager 1, the latest drilling has produced a series of significant results, including (uncut);
> 1) *5.2m at 108.6 g/t gold *(4.2m true width), including 0.54m at 1016g/t
> 2) *5.3m at 93.3 g/t gold* (2.3m true width), including 1.4m at 331g/t


----------



## explod

Thanks for bringing us up to date Starcraftmazter.

A nice long to medium termer in my view.   The sell off due to capital raising is typical these days and of course the funds are to get production underway in the Paulsen's area.  Go figure.

When it all settles down in a month or two and with a continuing firm gold price this should be a good investment.


----------



## mr. jeff

explod said:


> Thanks for bringing us up to date Starcraftmazter.
> 
> A nice long to medium termer in my view.   The sell off due to capital raising is typical these days and of course the funds are to get production underway in the Paulsen's area.  Go figure.
> 
> When it all settles down in a month or two and with a continuing firm gold price this should be a good investment.




Ongoing news and a report released April 4.




So anyone that is holding has something to look forward to - extensions to the deeps. The report shows plenty of cash and gold on hand and further news flow with excellent cost control (costs at $550/oz from memory) looking OK at this stage and still one to watch.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

NST has been doing a great job since bouncing off support, consistently outperforming it's peers in the last few weeks. Bit of a downer today a lot of selling at 10:10am, but it's been going back up. We'll see next week if the NST rally will continue or not.


----------



## explod

Starcraftmazter said:


> NST has been doing a great job since bouncing off support, consistently outperforming it's peers in the last few weeks. Bit of a downer today a lot of selling at 10:10am, but it's been going back up. We'll see next week if the NST rally will continue or not.




*They've got the gold *and new reefs keep proving up better too.

Great stock to go with gold as it rallies again in my view with no sovereign risk.


----------



## mr. jeff

From strength to strength and still one of the best in the business.





19m at 75gpt over 12m width. That's quite good.

Great grades and more to come yet I think.


----------



## Chasero

This is my only gold stock.. and still sitting on a large loss. (damn you CR!!)

Was going to sell in March but looks like I'll have to hold till June.

Happy to hold anyway since the long term trend is still up.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

This is my _only_ gold stock. And will continue to be so long as it keeps consistently outperforming. Constant flow of positive announcements, I love it - unlike some *cough* RED *cough*.

By my figuring gold will soon bounce quite a bit higher, if that happens then NST will undoubtedly be off to the moon.


----------



## mrlister

wasn't NST at  *cough* 1.14 *cough* in February?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

mrlister said:


> wasn't NST at  *cough* 1.14 *cough* in February?




According to my chart, yes.


----------



## mrlister

anyone care to discuss exactly what is happening to this stock?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

mrlister said:


> anyone care to discuss exactly what is happening to this stock?




No clue. NST has been bouncing like a yoyo since the capital raising so I've just been trading the range. My assumption was that it would bounce at 0.820, but I didn't and so I didn't go back in since all I saw was more selling (why bother).

I had a look at the quarterly report, there was some graph showing declining profits, but I don't do fundamentals so I have no idea if it's somehow relevant/unexpected.

Wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole at the moment until it clearly bottoms out. In the last 1-2 weeks it moved from a stock that was a clear outperformer amongst gold to a clear underperformer.

Would be interested though if any fundamentals here could comment on the quarterly.


----------



## Chasero

Technically, doesn't look great.

I think market sentiment on gold stocks atm is just down down down. 

I upped my holdings on what the market likes atm... i.e. graphite


----------



## notting

Has had a bit of support at .75 ish before.
NCM which is a bit more rounded given it's size and international statues etc and has underperformed but has managed to stabalise and even move up this week.
That helps me feel a bit more confident about the smaller ones being pounded at present.
Gold stocks are mental most of the time.
The only thing that concerned me about this one is that it's reports almost sounded too good to be true, like a scam.
If it's really that good, however, it's good!


----------



## mrlister

0.75 seems to be a common support zone for it so will be interesting to see where it goes from here. I like others didn't think the quarterly was that bad.


----------



## mrlister

Trading halt. Any Guesses as to why?


----------



## stockGURU

mrlister said:


> Trading halt. Any Guesses as to why?




It pays to actually read the company announcements:



> Northern Star Resources Ltd ("NST") requests its securities be placed in a trading halt immediately pending an announcement regarding a corporate transaction and updated growth strategy.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

I'm assuming they bought another gold junior or a site to prospect or something. All that capital raised couldn't have been for nothing, and the gold price presents unique opportunities.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Anyone watching/trading NST today? Every resistance since open this morning has been smashed with strength and sellers are dwindling.


----------



## mr. jeff

They have just reported great results from drilling below voyager 1 at Paulsen's which is big news as previous drilling returned little and they were planning on moving to voyager 2 when existing resource was depleted. Now there is extensions, it will increase life. 

NST still producing and increasing production. Looking good (not on the chart maybe though).


----------



## pixel

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displ...;idsId=01303829



> *Paulsens set for higher cash margins and longer life on back of ~14gpt extension zone
> *



This morning's announcement will certainly boost market interest; I even suspect some people "guessed" early.
After the initial euphoria, however, I suspect the price will retrace to test the breakout level before heading North again. Could drop as low as the 50% level on the Fibonacci study below.


----------



## explod

15 million shares changed hands on the close, up 13.24 at 94 cents on the day.

Must have hit a big one, where's Lasseter's Reef again?

Cheers to us holders.


----------



## pixel

explod said:


> 15 million shares changed hands on the close, up 13.24 at 94 cents on the day.
> 
> Must have hit a big one, where's Lasseter's Reef again?
> 
> Cheers to us holders.





> I suspect the price will retrace to test the breakout level before heading North again. Could drop as low as the 50% level


----------



## skyQuake

explod said:


> 15 million shares changed hands on the close, up 13.24 at 94 cents on the day.
> 
> Must have hit a big one, where's Lasseter's Reef again?
> 
> Cheers to us holders.




Part of a rebalance. Hence the push up at the cls


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Diggers and Drillers says "buy up to $1" and look at them all sitting there.


----------



## Boggo

Gringotts Bank said:


> Diggers and Drillers says "buy up to $1" and look at them all sitting there.




A little quiet achiever is NST. My weekly system seems to think so too 

Weekly chart below, and for the funnymentalists an interesting comparison of two stocks in the same sector, RED vs NST from yesterday.

(click to expand)


----------



## mr. jeff

Sorry Boggo, but there is no comparison to be made! But I don't want to start slinging mud (it's still in the process anyway!) I'll let the prices do the talking. I have been in NST for quite a while and can't believe they are adding a dividend with so much drilling still to be done, but I'll take the money!


----------



## Moit

Boggo, how can you possibly compare the two. Red and NST. Red I believe getting absolutely flooded, and dont report to shareholders. NST on the other hand, underground and dry and still making a motza. Lol. Cheers


----------



## Boggo

mr. jeff said:


> *Sorry Boggo, but there is no comparison to be made*! But I don't want to start slinging mud (it's still in the process anyway!) I'll let the prices do the talking. I have been in NST for quite a while and can't believe they are adding a dividend with so much drilling still to be done, but I'll take the money!






Moit said:


> *Boggo, how can you possibly compare the two*. Red and NST. Red I believe getting absolutely flooded, and dont report to shareholders. NST on the other hand, underground and dry and still making a motza. Lol. Cheers




And (the bolding) is exactly my point, you can't. Now have a look at the number of posts telling us how good RED is compared to the number of posts on NST.

I could list a dozen or more NST's at the moment but some miss the point and just get hung up on one stock.


----------



## Moit

No I totally agree boggo. I got outa red along time ago and have never looked back. Nst's f/a just too good. And we're hearing back by the week. T/a looking very nice at the moment. And yes there are so many other stocks out there. Cheers


----------



## mr. jeff

Boggo said:


> And (the bolding) is exactly my point, you can't. Now have a look at the number of posts telling us how good RED is compared to the number of posts on NST.
> 
> I could list a dozen or more NST's at the moment but some miss the point and just get hung up on one stock.







I am looking at NST's run and wondering if it is pushing ahead of itself and may be looking at forming a level sometime soon. This move has been a good ride, is today's jump up a good time to step aside ?

Boggo -  your opinion if you have time ? And can you name the other NST's that you refer to apart from DLS ?


----------



## Boggo

mr. jeff said:


> Boggo -  your opinion if you have time ? And can you name the other NST's that you refer to apart from DLS ?




Can't really ever say what it is going to do. The daily EW chart below has a number of target areas, its an individual thing as to how you handle it when it starts to retrace.

I entered NST off the weekly Metastock scan chart in my earlier post above, an entry off the daily chart using EW pattern entry (below) would have been a little ripper in hindsight.

There are many daily breakout charts at the moment but I am finding more stability in the weekly breakouts, AIX (which has taken off today ) is another example. It does get you in later but it seems to filter out some of the chaff.
Have a close look at the last breakout on AIX, all you need is a basic chart as the potential breakout at $2.00 stands out like the proverbial on the second chart below, its that simple really.

(NST daily and AIX weekly - click to expand)


----------



## jancha

Boggo said:


> Can't really ever say what it is going to do. The daily EW chart below has a number of target areas, its an individual thing as to how you handle it when it starts to retrace.
> 
> I entered NST off the weekly Metastock scan chart in my earlier post above, an entry off the daily chart using EW pattern entry (below) would have been a little ripper in hindsight.
> 
> There are many daily breakout charts at the moment but I am finding more stability in the weekly breakouts, AIX (which has taken off today ) is another example. It does get you in later but it seems to filter out some of the chaff.
> Have a close look at the last breakout on AIX, all you need is a basic chart as the potential breakout at $2.00 stands out like the proverbial on the second chart below, its that simple really.
> 
> (NST daily and AIX weekly - click to expand)




Hmmm $2.00 stands out like what? 
Looks like NST has the jitters. Yesterday RED and Today Northern Stars gone south must be catchy hey Boogo?


----------



## Boggo

jancha said:


> Hmmm $2.00 stands out like what?
> *Looks like NST has the jitters*. Yesterday RED and Today Northern Stars gone south must be catchy hey Boogo?




An average mug punter dependant on and influenced by RED silt emails would probably see it as the jitters, others who treat this as a business predict these 'jitters' in advance (see chart above) and are neither surprised or dissapointed when the expected occurs.

Just for you jancha, a bit of textbook predictable behaviour


----------



## Ves

Boggo said:


> An average mug punter dependant on and influenced by RED silt emails would probably see it as the jitters, others who treat this as a business predict these 'jitters' in advance (see chart above) and are neither surprised or dissapointed when the expected occurs.
> 
> Just for you jancha, a bit of textbook predictable behaviour



Here's a question from someone at home (sick and bored today ):

Is the 38.2% W4 retracement target fairly close to the min typ 3 line on your chart? 50% fib seems to be around a $1.00, I take it that you would be using those as support zones and look out below if the second one is breached...

edit: and from what I understand it would also typically do both of those on less volume than the w3 moves.


----------



## Boggo

Ves said:


> Here's a question from someone at home (sick and bored today ):
> 
> Is the 38.2% W4 retracement target fairly close to the min typ 3 line on your chart? 50% fib seems to be around a $1.00, I take it that you would be using those as support zones and look out below if the second one is breached...
> 
> edit: and from what I understand it would also typically do both of those on less volume than the w3 moves.




I can expand on it later V as I have to run now, initially just apply a 38.2% and 50% retracement.
I am tending to think that there may be more upside before a significant correction.

More later if needed.


----------



## Ves

Boggo said:


> I can expand on it later V as I have to run now, initially just apply a 38.2% and 50% retracement.
> I am tending to think that there may be more upside before a significant correction.
> 
> More later if needed.



Thanks - I guess the "grey" area that needs to be analysed in these cases is where wave 3 ends (I take this is only really known if it hits the first 38.2% retracement area?).  Wave 3 obviously has lots of utility in deciding targets for wave 5 and so on.  Phew!  All sounds a bit beyond me, but interesting to think about it in terms of an intellectual pursuit.


----------



## jancha

Boggo said:


> An average mug punter dependant on and influenced by RED silt emails would probably see it as the jitters, others who treat this as a business predict these 'jitters' in advance (see chart above) and are neither surprised or dissapointed when the expected occurs.
> 
> Just for you jancha, a bit of textbook predictable behaviour




Geez Thankz a heap Boogo but i'm no mug punter as i dont hold on to RED shares.... only buy back in when i see an opportunity. Dont see it as flogging a dead horse or being of too much risk... so we'll see who's the mug in 6mths.

As for your other post you stated that Quote: " cant really ever say what NST is going to do next" and now your predicting a few scenario's as to a possible retracement ect. Thats what i like about you boogo trying to predict what and where it will go next and If that does'nt happen then there's a new case of scenario's. It's a bit like following the sheep Baah


----------



## mr. jeff

I have stepped aside at 1.21 and spent the week pondering that move, as I like management, the ground always proves up well, and they are in expansion mode with dividend - plus their MC sector is shrinking at the moment due to takeovers etc.




I was expecting a double top as I saw them getting a bit overvalued, however I am seeing no serious reversal. 
The last bar could be a sign, but at this stage I would be looking for a test for an entry. That last bar looks like to me like a dog with a bucket of water thrown over it - it just has a bit of a shake and then carries on quite dry.
(I am not calling NST a dog though).

Of course it could go either way, but as far as gold stocks go, NST is definitely favoured by the market.


----------



## Idiode

So what is the thinking now that InvestMet have reduced their holding by 18.1 Million shares and the MD and Chairman have given their families a nice early Christmas present by selling (8.2M and 3.3M) of their holdings at $1.35.
A nice little fall from $1.54 to a low of $1.33 today following the announcement.
This management team are very good at keeping their cards well hidden to be able to transact 19.6 million shares without the market being aware.


----------



## Miner

Idiode said:


> So what is the thinking now that InvestMet have reduced their holding by 18.1 Million shares and the MD and Chairman have given their families a nice early Christmas present by selling (8.2M and 3.3M) of their holdings at $1.35.
> A nice little fall from $1.54 to a low of $1.33 today following the announcement.
> This management team are very good at keeping their cards well hidden to be able to transact 19.6 million shares without the market being aware.




Hats off to you and someother posters information on recent slump NST.
I however could not see the directors transaction from ASX yet. How you gathered that information.
Yes, what I could see 50 million shares transacted on Friday and price slumped.
Ironically there was no notice from ASX 'PLEASE EXPLAIN'.
Why ASX is so delayed and from where you found the transaction ?
In a rising market day NST slumped. So on Monday what will happen ? I  wished to know and dumped my share too but now gone case  

Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol 
NST 1.355  -11.44%  1.350  1.355  1.370  1.400  1.325  50,824,350  
ped 11 %


----------



## mr. jeff

I would view this selling (assuming it has completed now) as a very good chance to enter the next mid tier gold stock which has excellent management and very good ground which continues to deliver resource upgrades. 

MC clearly allows for more growth and although this selling could put a halt on the move, I am holding for more information and comfortable with the sell off.


----------



## notting

Yeah it's likely to bounce back pretty quick with all the excitement around this one.
It's always seemed too good to be true to me.
Why would these guys get out like that if the story is so great, why not wait till it's 2.50. Alarm bells are screaming!!!
Should be worth 2.50 easy given the announcements are so SPECTACULAR in the way they are worded. 
Dunno, just makes me a bit wary despite the fact that excitement will bounce this soon you'd think.


----------



## mr. jeff

notting said:


> Yeah it's likely to bounce back pretty quick with all the excitement around this one.
> It's always seemed too good to be true to me.
> Why would these guys get out like that if the story is so great, why not wait till it's 2.50. Alarm bells are screaming!!!
> Should be worth 2.50 easy given the announcements are so SPECTACULAR in the way they are worded.
> Dunno, just makes me a bit wary despite the fact that excitement will bounce this soon you'd think.




Very good point and thanks for making it. You are right that it always does seem so good. I perhaps foolishly have remained enthusiastic due to the continual positive news and cost control. 

Will have to have a bit of a cynical look now and check on the other side!


----------



## skc

mr. jeff said:


> Very good point and thanks for making it. You are right that it always does seem so good. I perhaps foolishly have remained enthusiastic due to the continual positive news and cost control.
> 
> Will have to have a bit of a cynical look now and check on the other side!




BEN offloaded a big stake in IFL (around August I think).

GUD offloaded some BRG (may be 12 months ago?)

There are a few other examples I can't think of at the moment.

My anecdotal evidence is that the initially, market tend to react negatively. But the effect doesn't last and the stock find its own way after a few weeks.


----------



## notting

It only seems like 







skc said:


> a few weeks.



.

It seems that sometimes opportunities wait for you!


----------



## Gryphonik

Hi all, new to NST (and this thread).. any ofyou still holding... I watched it climb past 1.50, but have patiently waited and entered at 1.00 (i like round numbers)... now dropped nealry 10%, before a slight rebound today... looks like this one may cause an ulcer... but the long term view is great - providing the gold price doesnt drop past $1560, then $1530 and time to exit all gold me thinks... Soros getting out of Gold, Paulsen holding for now.. i wonder who is next... cmon Bernanke, give us some serious QE.


----------



## notting

Gryphonik said:


> 1.50, but have patiently waited and entered at 1.00 (i like round numbers)... now dropped nealry 10%, before a slight rebound today... looks like this one may cause an ulcer... but the long term view is great -




It had a good day today, I'd be getting out tomorrow if it has another pos bounce. I'd be happy to take a loss on it at 95 or above.  The cum div status is what is giving it strength  right now.  After that could go back to the 60s!
I got out with no damage prior, held on to a tiny bit to keep me watching it.
If we get a gradually stabilising financial world gold is going to be going no where of years - 1350


----------



## tinhat

I made a mistimed entry into SLR last week which I bailed out of today at a disappointing loss. I also liquidated my position in MML today.

I like the look of NST and intend to buy NST, SLR and MML upon a turnaround in gold. The figures look good now in terms of their current production at Paulsons. Ashburton looks promising and will come online in 2015. Then there is the FMG joint venture to explore for non-iron ore minerals on FMGs tenements.


----------



## Miner

notting said:


> It had a good day today, I'd be getting out tomorrow if it has another pos bounce. I'd be happy to take a loss on it at 95 or above.  The cum div status is what is giving it strength  right now.  After that could go back to the 60s!
> I got out with no damage prior, held on to a tiny bit to keep me watching it.
> If we get a gradually stabilising financial world gold is going to be going no where of years - 1350




Are you suggesting 30 cents per share to arrive your predicted price of 60 cents or below for NST ? Interesting but would be more interesting to see your back up. I am holding because NST is technically very strong .


----------



## notting

Miner said:


> I am holding because NST is technically very strong .




Do you mean technically or fundamentally?

It's fallen through support at .95, Currently bouncing off more support at .85. 
Next is .70 to .60 where I think it will bottom.

Gold is a most sentiment driven metal, there is some use of it in jewelry but it's not the price maker.

They keep coming out with these market stunning, spectacular announcements that are having less and less of an effect at boosting the price.  The last one could not even lift the price for the day, which was a first! Todays is doing even worse.
Now that the market is experiencing a dividend hunt due to lower interest rates at banks NST are pumping up their dividend story.
They are doing their best to manipulate the price.
Their stratergies just seems too market price focussed with respect to the PR.
However it seems like a good story and if gold turns around then there's every reason to be in this one unless they are just a pack of bulls#!7 artists who all jumped out of the stock a few months ago!


----------



## Miner

notting said:


> Do you mean technically or fundamentally?
> 
> It's fallen through support at .95, Currently bouncing off more support at .85.
> Next is .70 to .60 where I think it will bottom.
> 
> Gold is a most sentiment driven metal, there is some use of it in jewelry but it's not the price maker.
> 
> They keep coming out with these market stunning, spectacular announcements that are having less and less of an effect at boosting the price.  The last one could not even lift the price for the day, which was a first! Todays is doing *even worse.*Now that the market is experiencing a dividend hunt due to lower interest rates at banks NST are pumping up their dividend story.
> They are doing their best to manipulate the price.
> Their stratergies just seems too market price focussed with respect to the PR.
> However it seems like a good story and if gold turns around then there's every reason to be in this one unless they are just a pack of bulls#!7 artists who all jumped out of the stock a few months ago!




Prices are delayed by 20 minutes unless stated otherwise in the Conditions. Retrieving any price indicates your acceptance of the Conditions.

Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol 
NST 0.*920*  2.22%  0.915  0.920  0.930  0.930  0.875  5,470,756  
(Status - CD)  
I did not get it . With 2.22% rise so far, how could come today is a worse day ?
Yes it is fundamentally strong IMO (this  is same as technically strong semantically) . NST did fall down at 87.5 cents but rose again. I will be happy to see the holding at 90 cents for few weeks and to rise with gold


----------



## JTLP

Hi guys,

Just reading up on NST; their latest presentation seems pretty promising with pretty low cash per oz etc.
What's up with their debt? I've read they have none but then reports indicate otherwise???


----------



## Sway

JTLP said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> Just reading up on NST; their latest presentation seems pretty promising with pretty low cash per oz etc.
> What's up with their debt? I've read they have none but then reports indicate otherwise???




I would guess it is negative sentiment towards the resources sector, gold stocks in particular.  Market cap is $300M.  They have virtually zero debt, $50M cash equivalent (probably includes some bullion), 30odd% ROE and payed a dividend recently.  I attended a briefing by their MD who mentioned cash cost of $610-690/oz and total operating cost of $850-950/oz.  They operate solely within WA.  The main operation is Paulsens 100,000oz/yr, with another deposit of similar size 200km down the road at Ashburton.

Cheers
Geoff


----------



## explod

Sway said:


> I would guess it is negative sentiment towards the resources sector, gold stocks in particular.  Market cap is $300M.  They have virtually zero debt, $50M cash equivalent (probably includes some bullion), 30odd% ROE and payed a dividend recently.  I attended a briefing by their MD who mentioned cash cost of $610-690/oz and total operating cost of $850-950/oz.  They operate solely within WA.  The main operation is Paulsens 100,000oz/yr, with another deposit of similar size 200km down the road at Ashburton.
> Cheers
> Geoff




This to my mind is one of the best p/m stocks around (and not because I have it in the tipping) and only last week further upgrades at Paulsens.  Has taken off since then too:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...alse&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=26&y=12

With the Dow breaking below the uptrend of the last six months chart overnight we will have a bit of a bath here today so it will be interesting to see if NST can hold up with gold staying firm.  My guess is that it will drop on sentiment and all the goldies will for a time follow the market down.  I look to August which every few years seems to be the big recovery and new high times for gold.

Not in any stocks at the moment, but this is one to watch for changing mood in my humble view.


----------



## laurie

Surprised this is not talked about much here I think it will shortly the way POG is going


----------



## tinhat

I don't hold any NST at the moment but no doubt it is a good gold miner and I've read analysis recently that reckons they should be able to get their all in costs down to about $900 (US?)/oz. Plenty of opportunity to expand and plenty of opportunity to explore and expand if the price of gold recovers.

It didn't fall as hard as some of the others and it has recovered stronger than many other gold miners. Actually, having a look at the chart its had a very strong recovery compared to some of the other miners. It's gone well over the 38% retracement from its high.


----------



## finicky

notting said:


> Do you mean technically or fundamentally?
> It's fallen through support at .95, Currently bouncing off more support at .85.
> Next is .70 to .60 where I think it will bottom.
> 
> They are doing their best to manipulate the price.
> Their strategies just seems too market price focussed with respect to the PR.




53c low, but close enough calling it back at 20 Feb 2013. Koala bear stamp.

Just holding 20,000 @ average $1, so almost there. Good prospects of course if you expect higher gold prices, which I do eventually 

Agree that it is a share price focused company with its announcements, and I will never trust a juniour mining management that has sold shares at well picked higher prices. Playing the market, which is us.

Are we back into full bull mode or is it just a B leg in an ABC correction? We do after all have a company here that went from well under 10c to over 1.50 in a couple of years. Plenty of room there for a more time extended correction given correction started from just Dec 2012?


----------



## laurie

make sure you factor in  the dividends and franking credits


----------



## piggybank

Daily Update.


----------



## laurie

Gone into trading halt tonight maybe they found Lasseter's Reef


----------



## notting

laurie said:


> Gone into trading halt tonight maybe they found Lasseter's Reef




3 days, usually spells capital raising


----------



## laurie

notting said:


> 3 days, usually spells capital raising




You did not read page 2?  exploration results!!


----------



## pixel

still half a cent to go before the gap is closed - same situation as a week ago.




... and if it does get to 75.5c, there is still the open question "Where is Support?"


----------



## pixel

Yesterday's Spinning Top Doji appears to have started a bottom reversal "Morning Star" pattern.





Initially, I had thought 72c could act as new resistance. That is now less likely - if at all.
If the trend reversal is confirmed, I'll get back on board. Potential target 92c.


----------



## pixel

pixel said:


> Yesterday's Spinning Top Doji appears to have started a bottom reversal "Morning Star" pattern.
> Initially, I had thought 72c could act as new resistance. That is now less likely - if at all.
> If the trend reversal is confirmed, I'll get back on board. Potential target 92c.




And today's Bearish Engulfing candle reversed the signal. Just as well I stayed out


----------



## finicky

Cute little weekly candle. Know whether change of direction or continuation soon?  I'm feeling further down likelier option? Better chance of support at .60 and pretty short so far for a C downleg, if you want to picture it that way. My average ~$1 and not tempted to add yet. Probably wont anyway.

*2 year weekly*


----------



## piggybank




----------



## kr1zh

another trading halt today for another acquisition. well done NST


----------



## piggybank

For those who bought into the recent placement have done well - up 24c

​


----------



## Miner

The NST issued a SPP at 86 cent for a maximum $15000 and then they scaled down even after doubling the allotment quota. Unprecedented gesture to the shareholders. People who availed the SPP should have seen a cool 40% jump in their investment from 86 cent to $1.22 and pl;us 1 cent dividend.
Today's announcement - such a colossal grade within 5 meters depth. I was expecting the punter would jump as they have one on less than half result from others. market did not react. Who knows.

Interestingly no one has put any posting following the right on ASF.  Hmm. Hide and secrecy.
Unlike most of the rights this is the only one I am happy about. Thankfully the right was announced just before I was trying to unload it !!


----------



## laurie

Might try to bring thread up to date $1.675 from a high $1.767 thanks NST for that spp at .86c


----------



## laurie

Hit a high of $1.83 and just watched an interview with Bill Beament who promised higher dividends from NST  got to admit its he who has brought this from a 1.c company to what it is today at $1.755 and he also said extending the mine life by a year will add 45-54c to the share price wow!!!


----------



## explod

From memory, drilling results from Paulson's about 18 months ago indicated the possibilty of some very high grades to the ton that could come down the track.

Yes management have not ramped but steadily delivered. If gold continues its current rise we should soon see a $2. share price in my view.


----------



## rb250660

What happened @ today's close? 15M dumped. Might have to wait t+3 to get an idea...


----------



## skyQuake

rb250660 said:


> What happened @ today's close? 15M dumped. Might have to wait t+3 to get an idea...




Too many people in an index rebal trade.


----------



## VSntchr

skyQuake said:


> Too many people in an index rebal trade.




Yep..big volume and SP moves in quite a few stocks on the close


----------



## skc

VSntchr said:


> Yep..big volume and SP moves in quite a few stocks on the close




I actually picked up a some NST on that funny close... just looking to pick up 6-8c a share as long as the gold price doesn't tank over the weekend.

I had a short in ABP which I closed just before the close at $2.55. It bloody closed at $2.49 

These index rebalances are just getting sillier by the quarter.


----------



## pixel

skc said:


> I actually picked up a some NST on that funny close... just looking to pick up 6-8c a share as long as the gold price doesn't tank over the weekend.
> 
> I had a short in ABP which I closed just before the close at $2.55. It bloody closed at $2.49
> 
> These index rebalances are just getting sillier by the quarter.




Good luck with that position, skc;




I wouldn't be quite that optimistic:

the flattest gradient has been broken yesterday;
the 1-year EMA didn't hold today either
there is an open gap further down in need to be filled
the pog doesn't look like recovering anytime soon
I didn't quite share the exuberance in June/July either. Got off on July 23rd and haven't bought back since.


----------



## VSntchr

skc said:


> These index rebalances are just getting sillier by the quarter.




This one certainly was BONKERS!  
Either Monday is going to be  payday.....or I'm going to be sitting in a few crappy trades that have just started a move :frown:


----------



## rb250660

I bought a few on the close too skc. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

skyQuake is on the money I reckon. pixel, do be a gentleman and have a squiz in Paritrade later in the week and let us know


----------



## tech/a

I'm with pixel

This is going in one direction
And it's not up.


----------



## Miner

pixel said:


> And today's Bearish Engulfing candle reversed the signal. Just as well I stayed out
> 
> View attachment 55386






Miner said:


> The NST issued a SPP at 86 cent for a maximum $15000 and then they scaled down even after doubling the allotment quota. Unprecedented gesture to the shareholders. People who availed the SPP should have seen a cool 40% jump in their investment from 86 cent to $1.22 and pl;us 1 cent dividend.
> Today's announcement - such a colossal grade within 5 meters depth. I was expecting the punter would jump as they have one on less than half result from others. market did not react. Who knows.
> 
> Interestingly no one has put any posting following the right on ASF.  Hmm. Hide and secrecy.
> Unlike most of the rights this is the only one I am happy about. Thankfully the right was announced just before I was trying to unload it !!






laurie said:


> Hit a high of $1.83 and just watched an interview with Bill Beament who promised higher dividends from NST  got to admit its he who has brought this from a 1.c company to what it is today at $1.755 and he also said extending the mine life by a year will add 45-54c to the share price wow!!!






pixel said:


> Good luck with that position, skc;
> 
> View attachment 59472
> 
> 
> I wouldn't be quite that optimistic:
> 
> the flattest gradient has been broken yesterday;
> the 1-year EMA didn't hold today either
> there is an open gap further down in need to be filled
> the pog doesn't look like recovering anytime soon
> I didn't quite share the exuberance in June/July either. Got off on July 23rd and haven't bought back since.




Did some rewind since Nov 2013 on NST price. I am not expert on chart but chartists like Pixel (sorry mate to put you on spot because you always provide good value information) said out of NST when price was 0.93 and chart was there. Then NST went up and up. Again it started sliding down and today it was $1245 or so. Should I leave hope and prove with chart ? I personally will not and think with solid technical base and steady rise it is an opportunity to buy (I however unloaded my stuff to book profit earlier) as done by SKC.
I have dumped a chart (COmmsec source) and believe with heavy sell out it gives an opportunity. 

1.245	-1.190% 	-$0.015 	1.450	1.150	1.275	1.275	1.192	12,535,131

Bottom line for me - if I am that intelligent then many of my reds would have been green so please DYOR.


----------



## skc

skc said:


> I actually picked up a some NST on that funny close... just looking to pick up 6-8c a share as long as the gold price doesn't tank over the weekend.
> 
> I had a short in ABP which I closed just before the close at $2.55. It bloody closed at $2.49
> 
> These index rebalances are just getting sillier by the quarter.




I closed the trade today at a small lost. Gold stocks in general tanked with the XGD down 2%. NST outperformed slightly down only 0.4%. 



pixel said:


> Good luck with that position, skc;






tech/a said:


> I'm with pixel
> 
> This is going in one direction
> And it's not up.




There is little doubt that the chart and fundamentally (namely short term gold price direction) the stock is heading in one direction over the medium term... But the trade wasn't about the chart; it was about the stock experiencing an out-of-whack match due to index rebalances.  It was an attempt at capturing the mean reversion. 

Here are some of the other Friday out-of-whack stocks and how they performed... illustrating the positive expectancy of the opportunity presented by the index-rebalancers.




P.S. I have only included something that looked obviously impacted by the match. There may be many others in addition to what I have listed.

P.S. If one does not want a directional risk he/she can hedge the trade with a trade in a peer in the opposite direction. E.g. Long NST and short NCM on the close would have yielded a better outcome than a straight long NST.



Miner said:


> I personally will not and think with solid technical base and steady rise it is an opportunity to buy (I however unloaded my stuff to book profit earlier) as done by SKC.




As described above my intent was only to capture the mean reversion over the following trading session. So don't take anything out of my 1-day long position in NST.


----------



## skyQuake

skc said:


> I closed the trade today at a small lost. Gold stocks in general tanked with the XGD down 2%. NST outperformed slightly down only 0.4%.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There is little doubt that the chart and fundamentally (namely short term gold price direction) the stock is heading in one direction over the medium term... But the trade wasn't about the chart; it was about the stock experiencing an out-of-whack match due to index rebalances.  It was an attempt at capturing the mean reversion.
> 
> Here are some of the other Friday out-of-whack stocks and how they performed... illustrating the positive expectancy of the opportunity presented by the index-rebalancers.
> 
> View attachment 59506
> 
> 
> P.S. I have only included something that looked obviously impacted by the match. There may be many others in addition to what I have listed.
> 
> P.S. If one does not want a directional risk he/she can hedge the trade with a trade in a peer in the opposite direction. E.g. Long NST and short NCM on the close would have yielded a better outcome than a straight long NST.
> 
> 
> 
> As described above my intent was only to capture the mean reversion over the following trading session. So don't take anything out of my 1-day long position in NST.




Shh dont give everything away!

______________________________________

Alternately you could have shorted EVN or BDR which matched higher for even more fun


----------



## pixel

Miner said:


> Did some rewind since Nov 2013 on NST price. I am not expert on chart but chartists like Pixel (sorry mate to put you on spot because you always provide good value information) said out of NST when price was 0.93 and chart was there. Then NST went up and up. Again it started sliding down and today it was $1245 or so. Should I leave hope and prove with chart ? I personally will not and think with solid technical base and steady rise it is an opportunity to buy (I however unloaded my stuff to book profit earlier) as done by SKC.
> I have dumped a chart (COmmsec source) and believe with heavy sell out it gives an opportunity.
> 
> 1.245	-1.190% 	-$0.015 	1.450	1.150	1.275	1.275	1.192	12,535,131
> 
> Bottom line for me - if I am that intelligent then many of my reds would have been green so please DYOR.




Some good points, Miner 
... and don't be shy about "putting me on the spot"; I can handle that 

Yes, I closed that trade I referred to last November when the chart suggested resistance and I wanted the money (plus profit) for other things. However, it's not necessary to assume I didn't buy back in after the pullback just because I didn't post about it at the time. I may have between 20 and 50 "irons in the fire" at any time and wouldn't have time to trade for posting and explaining every one of them.

Just for the record though: I took much of February off for a relaxing holiday. That meant I missed a few re-entries. NST would've been one of them.
The trade I've been talking about a couple of days ago was entered in June...


----------



## rb250660

I'm out at break even. Next....


----------



## sreeve

My NST chart interpretation - (these charts were done yesterday, before today's large falls)

NST has some buying support in the $1.20s. Should this area fail, a test of $1.09 is likely. Next couple of days will determine next direction (see short term candlesticks with wedge formed).

WEEKLY candlestick chart:







Close up with DAILY candlestick chart:





~ Scott


----------



## notting

When gold was around 1700 NST was around 1.50.  About where it is now.  Make sense?


----------



## tech/a

notting said:


> When gold was around 1700 NST was around 1.50.  About where it is now.  Make sense?




Why does it have to make sense
Its worth what the market is prepared to pay.


----------



## notting

Market has a habit of overpaying and underpaying.
The art is to know when it is about to correct itself.
When things don't make sense I like to make a note of it,  I don't think it has to make sense.
I rather like it when it doesn't.

Then when it looks like it's realised it has not made sense.
I step in and try to help it realise.
All eyes on tomorrow!!!


----------



## tech/a

notting said:


> Market has a habit of overpaying and underpaying.
> The art is to know when it is about to correct itself.
> When things don't make sense I like to make a note of it,  I don't think it has to make sense.
> I rather like it when it doesn't.
> 
> Then when it looks like it's realised it has not made sense.
> I step in and try to help it realise.
> All eyes on tomorrow!!!




So what's your plan?
Short it through CFD
Buy it on a dip ( doubt it if it's already being over payed )


----------



## notting

tech/a said:


> So what's your plan?
> Short it through CFD
> Buy it on a dip ( doubt it if it's already being over payed )




I shorted it throughout yesterday afternoon.
Not a full position and was very surprised at the bullishness of it.
I suspect it was from amateur Christmas traders whilst the heavier hitters are on holiday.
This one tends to trade like it reads tea  leaves at Hot Copper - very amateur - so I occasionally back myself against tech bull or bear.
I was long so just kept selling cause Fairfax were pumping up the gold moves that I could not see at all on the US ETFs and this goldie was way out running others in our market.
It's last updates have been less than stella!
What was interesting from the bull side however was the moves at the close of quite a few goldies on Fridays close.
Big volume buying went through.
See if they all jump off today by watching volumes today to see how serious the selling will be.
Had a bad night in US last night.


----------



## tech/a

notting said:


> I shorted it throughout yesterday afternoon.
> Not a full position and was very surprised at the bullishness of it.
> I suspect it was from amateur Christmas traders whilst the heavier hitters are on holiday.
> This one tends to trade like it reads tea  leaves at Hot Copper - very amateur - so I occasionally back myself against tech bull or bear.
> I was long so just kept selling cause Fairfax were pumping up the gold moves that I could not see at all on the US ETFs and this goldie was way out running others in our market.
> It's last updates have been less than stella!
> What was interesting from the bull side however was the moves at the close of quite a few goldies on Fridays close.
> Big volume buying went through.
> See if they all jump off today by watching volumes today to see how serious the selling will be.
> Had a bad night in US last night.




Very high volume can be supply.
Technically the big push through resistance at $1.35 ish is a classic bullish impulse through resistance.
I do expect that to be tested (The $1.35 ish level)

I presume shorting it throughout the day means various shorts at higher levels.
If a short term play could be good.(Unless $1.35 broken decisively)
If longer term could be less that a happy ending, Particularly if the Resistance is not tested---as expected.

Not a bad trade and maybe clever coming in on increased supply.


----------



## pixel

I look a lot at open gaps, especially when a stock appears to have a habit of closing them sooner or later.
NST falls into that category.

Considering the effort it took it yesterday to close the one to $1.58 - it remained open till the very last Closing Auction - I didn't count on the next one being closed any time soon. At least not before one or possibly all three of the lower ones were tested. 




As today's candle looks likely to form a (top-reversing) Harami, I place my bid at $1.205. This strategy has worked twice before at recent 96 and 97c levels.


----------



## tech/a

Inside day on a very bullish yesterday is " A" typical.

Particularly on low ish volume.
Indicating no panic selling---in fact accumulation.

Watch for tomorrows action around the inside bar.
This is the test of old resistance--playing out.
I'm more bullish than bearish.
The short play on very high volume supply days was a 
good one.---still holding?---accumulating?


----------



## tech/a

Notting

Out of interest what was your average short entry price?


----------



## notting

Bought in lots of little chunks and at the close yesterday afternoon.
Then offloaded it at between 1.445 and 1.47 today with the predictable excitement of people fleeing gold on morning testosterone!
It wasn't a trade I was particularly feeling smart about even though "it went my way"
So now I look for confirmation of what it did yesterday in relation to the rest of the Gold market.
I'm still nervous about the 16 stocks I identified of having a bullish close on Friday.
They all jumped on that high volume close so I was thinking it was interest over supply.z
Really I should have stayed long in my opinion.


----------



## pixel

notting said:


> Bought in lots of little chunks and at the close yesterday afternoon.
> Then offloaded it at between 1.445 and 1.47 today with the predictable excitement of people fleeing gold on morning testosterone!
> It wasn't a trade I was particularly feeling smart about even though "it went my way"
> So now I look for confirmation of what it did yesterday in relation to the rest of the Gold market.
> I'm still nervous about the 16 stocks I identified of having a bullish close on Friday.
> They all jumped on that high volume close so I was thinking it was interest over supply.z
> Really I should have stayed long in my opinion.




I still believe you did the right thing, notting.
As a precedent, check out  the Harami exactly 2 months ago: See how that panned out.




Even if you erred on the side of caution and the leopard changes his spots this time. your money is in the bank - much safer there than gambled on a stock that's trading irrationally at the best of times.


----------



## notting

Yes, the way I see it, gold will need to smash through 1400 and head pretty smartly to 1700 oz US$ for NST to be trading at around 2.15.
Currently looking a tad optimistic with gold stretching for 1300 oz.
Hell, we gotta buy something, said all the little piggies running in one direction.


----------



## notting

Illustrating the point above.



A golden cross on steroids, will end up leaving you deflated.

Getting ready to go berserk shorting gold stocks should the expected bazooka turn out to be less than a trillion on the table.


----------



## laurie

This stock has thrown out all the so called charts out of whack!! hey guys it hit $2.3!! today you are all still at $1.5 it has grown up since then?


----------



## notting

Their continuing to prove to be pretty smart operators.
They just bought into some surrounding tenements which they can process with existing equipment and the momentum went one way and all time highs are achieved.
Realistically the price is way too optimistic.

There is talk of a pick up in the second half of the year for gold when all the money has no where else to go I guess.
But this is well and truly priced in.

I reversed at 2.07 got a little ride down and got out.
Started nibbling at some others.

I'm seeing gold in my dreams at the moment. Literally!


----------



## Wysiwyg

notting said:


> I'm seeing gold in my dreams at the moment. Literally!



That must be coinciding with what you think you see is a trend change up. I hope we're right for a position entry (not in NST though).


----------



## notting

Directors cashing in their chips big time over the last week.
Prudent given the thing ran up to 3ish about 1ish too much!


----------



## pixel

notting said:


> Directors cashing in their chips big time over the last week.
> Prudent given the thing ran up to 3ish about 1ish too much!




Agree, Notting;
from a technical perspective, I also get "fair value" below $2.20, possibly as far down as $1.80.


----------



## helpme

The crash in the past 2 days for NST was really hard. Some of my blood is now lying on the streets. It crashed double-digit on Monday and >5% so far today. 

I cannot find specific news that would cause such a crash. Can the wiser forummers here enlighten me? I would like to understand why some of my blood has been spilled on the streets. Thank you very much.


----------



## notting

50 million in exploration, WTF. Should have put that in some struggling debt laden goldies sitting on product  not wasteful exploration.


----------



## Boggo

Got stopped out of this, it was showing signs of doing well too.

(click to expand)


----------



## notting

notting said:


> Directors cashing in their chips big time over the last week.
> Prudent given the thing ran up to 3ish about 1ish too much!




Yeah, like I said, looking a bit expensive at 3ish. 

Looking to test 2.57ish on the weekly.


----------



## kid hustlr

Anyone out there taking a good look at this? Gold stocks been crunched over the past week or so but this share has an incredible track record and technically looks the strongest to me. Any interest out there if it was to put in some kind reversal bottom?


----------



## barney

kid hustlr said:


> Anyone out there taking a good look at this? Gold stocks been crunched over the past week or so but this share has an incredible track record and technically looks the strongest to me. Any interest out there if it was to put in some kind reversal bottom?




Hi Kid,  My opinion fwiw ..

I reckon NST and all the decent Goldies will be a no brainer but not until the POG confirms a solid bottom. 

I'm still giving Gold about 3-4 months to show its hand .... looking for a final decent retracement (1070-1080 ), a weakening general market and then I think all Producer/near producer gold stocks will have a pretty tidy run. Thats the current plan anyway


----------



## kid hustlr

What's the seasonality of gold like barn? I don't want to miss it is my fear


----------



## barney

kid hustlr said:


> What's the seasonality of gold like barn? I don't want to miss it is my fear




Yeah its a fair point to consider ... I was thinking something similar during the last week when my main Gold stock PNR started to get a few wobbles and retrace with the POG which looks like rolling off its short term top ..... 

I came to the conclusion that even though I expect gold to retrace further, the longer term outlook for quality Producers still looks pretty reasonable, so to avoid selling/tax issues/re buying etc, I'll just sit it out in the short term.

I believe its the second half of the year which is traditionally better for Gold??   Not sure how accurate that is historically, but it kind of fits in with how the chart looks to me anyway, so I reckon the end of March through to June might be a ball park time to start looking at scaling into anything Gold related but that is just a guess at this point in time 

Joules would be the one to hone down the time frame further cause he picked the last short term bottom to a tee


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> What's the seasonality of gold like barn? I don't want to miss it is my fear




IMO if you analyse the gold price, then trade gold. If you want to trade a gold miner, then study up on the gold miner... 

The price of gold is a very important factor driving share price of gold miners no doubt, but all the good work analysing the gold price action can be undone by the host of issues related to specific miners - operations, reserves, all in costs, balance sheet, sovereign risks etc etc. TRY and PRU are good examples.

Also there's been a bit of divergence between gold price and GDX of late... GDX is so dominate on many of the local goldies share registers so it's flow produces amplified impact on the share price. SBM is a good recent example.


----------



## greggles

Gold miner Northern Star Resources has gapped up this morning and is currently trading at $6.85, not far from its all-time high of $6.97. It moved effortlessly through resistance at $6.75 and looks set to take on $7.

On 20 June the company said that it would beat its FY2018 production guidance of 540,000-560,000oz and is now aiming for 600,000oz with AISC as previously advised in the range of A$1000-1050/oz.


----------



## Miner

greggles said:


> Gold miner Northern Star Resources has gapped up this morning and is currently trading at $6.85, not far from its all-time high of $6.97. It moved effortlessly through resistance at $6.75 and looks set to take on $7.
> 
> On 20 June the company said that it would beat its FY2018 production guidance of 540,000-560,000oz and is now aiming for 600,000oz with AISC as previously advised in the range of A$1000-1050/oz.
> 
> View attachment 87955



Gees Greggles
When I put like on your thread, did not believe you would be for money so much .
NST went above $7.04. What is next per your analysis ?
Excellent work mate.


----------



## greggles

Miner said:


> Gees Greggles
> When I put like on your thread, did not believe you would be for money so much .
> NST went above $7.04. What is next per your analysis ?
> Excellent work mate.



Thanks Miner. I had a feeling NST would crack $7. I thought the upgraded production guidance was a good catalyst for a solid move north and I was right on that score. It's in blue sky territory now so I think we could see a little more out of it. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit $7.25 in the near future.

I've got a few stocks I'm keeping an eye on so keep a look out for my posts. I like the miners, especially gold miners but I'll take a look at anything that I think has some potential.


----------



## Miner

greggles said:


> Thanks Miner. I had a feeling NST would crack $7. I thought the upgraded production guidance was a good catalyst for a solid move north and I was right on that score. It's in blue sky territory now so I think we could see a little more out of it. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit $7.25 in the near future.
> 
> I've got a few stocks I'm keeping an eye on so keep a look out for my posts. I like the miners, especially gold miners but I'll take a look at anything that I think has some potential.



Good one Greggles.
It is great that you are valuing the miners (that gives me chance 
Serious front, good work mate. I am holding NST. I agree that NST has great potential.


----------



## greggles

Gap up for NST this morning following the completion of their $175m fully-underwritten placement to institutional investors with ~26.1 million new shares issued at $6.70 per share. 

Proceeds from the placement will be used to help fund the acquisition of the high-grade 4.1Moz Pogo underground gold mine in Alaska from Sumitomo Metal Mining (85% interest) and Sumitomo Corporation (15% interest) for an acquisition price of US$260 million (A$347 million) with the balance being funded from Northern Star's existing cash reserves.

NST is currently up 14.22% to $7.95 and is at all-time highs today, having reached an intraday high of $8.05.


----------



## barney

greggles said:


> Gap up for NST this morning following the completion of their $175m fully-underwritten placement to institutional investors with ~26.1 million new shares issued at $6.70 per share.




And the recent Bullishness has been with the back drop of a poor performing Gold price

Amazing stock


----------



## explod

Interesting that there has been little discussion on such a solid Aussie gold producer.  Rising nicely now with The Aussie gold price getting close again to its all time high and with it's production continuing to rise I expect it to do well in 2019.


----------



## Miner

explod said:


> Interesting that there has been little discussion on such a solid Aussie gold producer.  Rising nicely now with The Aussie gold price getting close again to its all time high and with it's production continuing to rise I expect it to do well in 2019.



There is never a comfort zone on sharemarket.
When I was relatively relaxed on NST, it produced the result by maintaining guidance by $75 per oz increase on AISC.
Market does not forgive for past history. Yak. Holding.


----------



## Zaxon

Excellent results!


----------



## explod

Almost back to it's all time high today.

This indicates investors looking for certainty in uncertain times in my view.


----------



## Trav.

Interesting chart on this one, being unloved for the last few months as one of the mines POGO is apparently underperforming and has found some support around the $9.40 mark. They are also moving in on EAR as per latest substantial holders notice, which might give the SP further support.


----------



## explod

NS


Trav. said:


> Interesting chart on this one, being unloved for the last few months as one of the mines POGO is apparently underperforming and has found some support around the $9.40 mark. They are also moving in on EAR as per latest substantial holders notice, which might give the SP further support.
> 
> View attachment 98248
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 98247




NST is a well established gold producer with a good number of gold diggings in Australia and with therefore no sovereign risk.  Well oversold in my humble view which to me is merely sentiment on a small drop in production.

Australian gold price is currently on an all time high but very little mainstream press covers that.  The penny will drop in due course and we'll see. DYOR.


----------



## explod

Just checked the five year charts for NST and gold which I find interesting:-


----------



## travwj

Having a look at NST and it seems to be having a bit of a sell off, but hoping that the up trend will continue when it hits a support level around the $9.40 mark.
Weekly chart below.


----------



## Trav.

Jumped in today on NST for a trade as it came up in a scan late last month and looks to be finding some support. Hopefully can hold above $10 and continue up to the $12 mark.

We will wait and see


----------



## tech/a

A simple ABC correction would see around $8

There is some very heavy selling in this down leg
so may get exhausted sooner than later.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Yeh it's been monstered since late Jul.  There's a big trendline at around 9$ on the weekly chart and behaviour around this line will tell us if there's any buyers around.


----------



## explod

It is very sensitive to the gold price and that is evident from the rise this morning and the gold price rise overnight.


----------



## Trav.

explod said:


> It is very sensitive to the gold price and that is evident from the rise this morning and the gold price rise overnight.




Second time that @explod has mentioned the SP link to the gold price and I was a bit slow on the uptake, but had a look this morning and found it very interesting how similar they are. 

Im sure there are other goldies out there that do similar but good observation by @explod  

Daily Charts






Weekly Charts


----------



## rnr

Does anyone else on the Forum have this area tagged on their chart as having reasonable potential for a trend reversal?


----------



## Trav.

I got timing on first entry wrong and entered again earlier this month on the dip.

Avg price is $9.50 so just got my head above water.


----------



## Trav.

I had high hopes for NST during the week when up 4%  then down 6% today  which saw weekly gains disappear and finished -2% for the week.

Not the only gold stock on my list to finish in the red, a bit disappointing....you can't win them all I suppose.


----------



## barney

Trav. said:


> ...you can't win them all I suppose.




I'm hearing you

Newcrest chart looks even worse … although not as much fall today. 

SLR down 9% today … GOR down 7% ….. PNR down another 3.5%

POG still looks an each way bet in the short term ….. maybe the new year will show more direction.


----------



## Trav.

Very exciting, well lets hope so anyway


----------



## Trav.

Lots of whispers yesterday on social media, but confirmed today.

I think it is a big call to buy a share of KCGM but hopefully it works out for all. It will be interesting to see how the SP reacts. Hopefully positive but with finding at $9 you could expect some negative sentiment.


----------



## barney

Trav. said:


> Hopefully positive but with funding at $9 you could expect some negative sentiment.




Huge commitment from the Co.  Hopefully the cap raise is well supported and at least puts a base of $9 on the SP but who knows at the moment.


----------



## tinhat

SAR bought their 50% share for US$25m less that what NST are paying (US$750m vs US$775m).


----------



## sptrawler

There is always talk in Kal, that the reserves are dwindling and the known reserves are heading towards Town.
Here is an old article, but I suppose NST have done due diligence.
http://museum.wa.gov.au/explore/wa-goldfields/environmental-impacts/future-beyond-pit
From the article:

*The End of the Super-Pit?*
The Super Pit closure is going to be a long conversation, after all, we’ve got another 11 years to go and possibly more.

KCGM’s Community Relations Manager, February 2010

Many suggestions have been made for the site of Kalgoorlie’s famous Super Pit when it eventually ceases operation as a mine. A casino? An Australian Las Vegas? An inland lake? A race track? What does the future hold for the nearly four kilometre long, 600 metre deep Super Pit?

_Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mine_s (KCGM) is the biggest employer in Kalgoorlie. The working life of the Super Pit, as it currently stands, has been extended to 2021, but the future remains uncertain.

What will be the impact on the town of Kalgoorlie when mining ceases?

As a way of getting Kalgoorlie residents involved in thinking about life after the closure of the Super Pit, KCGM has initiated an open discussion, which can be contributed to on their website.  Some residents have voiced concern about the effect on the local housing market, whereas others see great possibilities.

One response proposed a luxury resort "with great views of the internal pit:"


----------



## barney

Positive SP response so far since the acquisition announcement.  (Hourly Chart)  

Dropping a little as I posted Currently $10.14


----------



## barney

Should have waited a couple of minutes … Its a bit clearer now. 1 minute chart shows the push on the open (last 2 days) followed by the low volume retreat till 11 am.

It dropped to just over $10 but the buyers are now back in at $10.08 and pushing hard so $10.06 looks the short term low … Certainly plenty of trading interest. 

If it follows yesterdays pattern, it should meander higher in a tight range for the rest of the day??


----------



## barney

barney said:


> If it follows yesterdays pattern, it should meander higher in a tight range for the rest of the day??




As it did.  Today's price action very similar to yesterdays … Close at $10.44  You should be sitting ok now @Trav. ??


----------



## Trav.

barney said:


> You should be sitting ok now @Trav. ??




Yes mate. I was a little worried following the announcement but doing well now. Up 10% and going strong.

Bring on $11


----------



## Padowan

Trav. said:


> Yes mate. I was a little worried following the announcement but doing well now. Up 10% and going strong.
> 
> Bring on $11
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 99147



I heard the NST capital raising was 3.5 x over subscribed, that’s a significant investor commitment so late in the year and a strong affirmation of the transaction and NST’s ability to deliver, good luck Trav


----------



## Trav.

I am intrigued about this offer and the current direction of the SP. Obviously the market is happy at the moment with the purchase of KCGM (50%) as SP is rising but my initial expectation was that it would retrace to $9 sooner rather than later.

I am looking at participating in this SPP and therefore will be tightening my stop to lock in profit as I believe that when the shares are issued ( ~ 3/2/2020 ) the SP could retrace closer to the issue level.


----------



## Trav.

This stocks SP is a very interesting one as the SPP is at $9 and the SP has recently hit a high of $12.33 on the back of the gold price rise.

I am betting that it will retrace closer to the $9 mark when the SPP closes ( 24/1/2020 ) and then when the shares are quoted on the ASX ( 4/2/2020 ) I can see that a lot of people will sell their allotment for a nice % gain.

Down today 3.2% for a close @ $11.81.

Question ----- How close will it get to $9 in the next 2 weeks?????


----------



## Padowan

Trav. said:


> This stocks SP is a very interesting one as the SPP is at $9 and the SP has recently hit a high of $12.33 on the back of the gold price rise.
> 
> I am betting that it will retrace closer to the $9 mark when the SPP closes ( 24/1/2020 ) and then when the shares are quoted on the ASX ( 4/2/2020 ) I can see that a lot of people will sell their allotment for a nice % gain.
> 
> Down today 3.2% for a close @ $11.81.
> 
> Question ----- How close will it get to $9 in the next 2 weeks?????



With mr trump playing war games anything could happen with the POG


----------



## Trav.

Padowan said:


> With mr trump playing war games anything could happen with the POG




yes that is the confusing part to this equation that I can't really gauge. current gold price appears to be bouncing around a fair bit so will that hold up the SP for the rest of the month or even 2 weeks?

I will wait until next week to confirm participation in the SPP and will be watching very closely until then.


----------



## finicky

SPP 23% discount to today's price, roughly calculated. Hard to see participation in the SPP going all that wrong, given the companion presentation which showed that Pogo is on track for profit in fy20. I'll sound like the company PR blurb, because they're not above salesmanship, but with SAR as partner, that'd have to be literally the best team on the planet by a long shot to energize the KCGM Super Pit, specially with NST taking it underground. Then there's the Newmont tenements that NST's picking up and possible surrounding acquisitions and consolidation.

Such low risk - I'll be selling 1,000 shrs and taking up 2,000 in the SPP, doesn't bother me much when I sell the 1,000.
Very good and exciting company to be in med/long term to benefit from the resumed bull market. Always something cooking at Northern Star.

My favourite commentator, Jordan Roy-Byrne of The Daily Gold has been cautioning that the gold mining stocks indices and etfs (GDX and GDXJ) have not been confirming the big gold rise , sees clear distribution happening and expects a weak January. Purely short term. But you can hear him yourself by finding him on twitter if interested.


----------



## Trav.

finicky said:


> doesn't bother me much when I sell the 1,000




I agree with everything in your post except this part above.

Don't you think that the SP will continue to drop closer to the SPP price and if you could have sold above $12 then that would have been ideal, as I personally don't think that we will see those levels again in the next couple of weeks.

I sold my parcel early ( once qualified for SPP ) and although happy with the profit I would have preferred above $12 but you can never time these things perfectly.

Good luck to all holders.


----------



## finicky

So in the end I sold 2,000 NST shares today @ 12.10 
I have decided to go for the full $30,000 allocation in the SPP, so the sale of 2,000 shares today will fund the bulk of it. Hope they don't scale the SPP back - don't want to end up with less NST shares than before. Didn't really want to sell any NST at this point but the other candidate for cashing in a few shares hasn't been behaving well last two days - Codan.
The NST Dec Qtrly to be released pre market Jan 29 might have a strong market effect which is why I didn't want to sell any yet. Preferred to gamble on a good Qtrly. I imagine a lot of interest in a full Pogo update.


----------



## Trav.

Well I am happy to admit that I was wrong with my expectation that the SP would fall closer to the SPP issue price for retail investors.

Why happy I hear your ask ??? Well I applied for my full allocation and higher the current SP the more $$$ I make, so win win really.






SPP @ $9 and closes Friday


----------



## finicky

Sub-optimal for me. I had to sell something to take up the full offer, but with my optimism about the Dec Qtrly coming up (29th Jan) for NST, let alone NST's long term prospects in a gold bull market, I shouldn't have sold NST. Too casual.   Missed an irreplaceable opportunity to significantly increase my holding. Penny wise pound foolish, I was not willing to take less than an ideal price for selling my preferred selling target - irrational.


----------



## finicky

Not bad - 6 weeks after a big placement and accompanying SPP the share price is up 44%. Never seen it before. Augurs well for the Dec Qtrly which will be released pre-open tomorrow, pant pant. A more expansive update on the Alaskan mine, Pogo, is what I'm most anticipating ..

16/12 - Trading halt
17/12 - Ann Acquisition KCGM Super Pit
18/12 - Ann Completion of Placement @ $9
24/12 - SPP Offer Opens

2 month daily


----------



## barney

Barnstorming …. Brilliant  Well done to you guys who are in.


----------



## explod

barney said:


> Barnstorming …. Brilliant  Well done to you guys who are in.



Yes, been a favourite of mine for a few years now. A close mate sold off some banks etc last week and picked up 7000 NST on the open today. With the Aussie gold price in record territory the herd will start jumping on board soon.


----------



## Trav.

not unsurprising but SPP was oversubscribed and scale back is going to happen...bugger..

We will find out on Monday what the scale back looks like so will be interesting to see what it looks like and how long it takes for them to return my $$$

NST Closed @ $12.60 today


----------



## sptrawler

Could be an issue for Northern Star, but don't hold, so not fully aware of their exposure.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...to-close-because-of-seismic-activity/11923838


----------



## barney

sptrawler said:


> Could be an issue for Northern Star, but don't hold, so not fully aware of their exposure.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...to-close-because-of-seismic-activity/11923838




NST own *51%* of the Raleigh mine

TBR own *36%* 

RND own *12%* 


NST SP *up* 2.5% today

TBR SP *down* almost 17%

RND SP *down* 14%


NST obviously have lots more baskets of eggs so the market has been kinder than for the other two.


----------



## Trav.

Well that SPP was a disappointment, scale back was huge and barely worth the trouble for me. 

Worked out around 13.5% of my holding at the time of the announcement so 285 shares issued to me out of the possible 3,333 shares I was eligible for based of the $30k I transferred @ $9 issue price. 

Unfortunately $50m retail SPP was not enough and the big boys got a bigger slice of the pie ..... buggers ....


----------



## sptrawler

Scale backs are always a pain, they tie up your money, then give most of it back.


----------



## finicky

Bummer - my SPP allocation hit my account today, now I have to buy 652 shares on market to top up to my previous holding.

Raleigh suspension obviously isn't a significant issue according to the market's pricing. This company will be producing well over 1 million ozs when including a full year's contribution from the Kalgoorlie super pit and how much does Raleigh produce over at Kundana?

Raleigh is only one of 4 mines in the East Kundana Joint Venture (EKJV). My research of anything has a strict limit of 15 minutes and in that time I could not exactly unravel how much per year the EKJV, let alone one of its constituent mines (Raleigh) produces but let's say roughly 25% of ~100,000 ozs attributable to NST's 51% of the JV = 25,000 ozs p.a. All just ball park estimates. The other mines at East Kundana are unaffected as informed by this statement:
"Underground mining at other deposits at the East Kundana joint venture, which includes the Rubicon-Hornet and Pegasus mines, remains unaffected, the companies said." ABC news
And that's not to say Raleigh won't be rehabilitated after an independent assessment of risk.
Also, there's a new deposit been defined at the EKJV called Falcon which recently had a maiden resource declared in fy19.


----------



## explod

In my view this is perhaps our best Aussie gold stock and just look at it go and now at an all time high. Aussie gold price at an all time high also, up another $18 overnight so NST could get close the $15 today.  Interestingly hardly a word on main street media about gold.


----------



## Padowan

20% daily swings over the last 2 trading days, crazy for an $8bn mkt cap ASX100 company

can’t say whether this is a blip on the way to the nadir or stimulus has put a floor in the mkt

At A$2466/oz NST is printing cash


----------



## finicky

Padowan said:


> .. At A$2466/oz NST is printing cash ..




And we're back above $2,500aud after last night, NST swings have been hair-raising alright but I look at Saracen (SAR) as being an apt company to compare with Northern Star and I just did a comparative 6 month chart of the two - they're almost identical over that period and still up 10-15%.

'Between the Lines Finance' on Patreon (Poster: Nordesmic) has done a brilliant analysis of the GDX and GDXJ etfs, also the leveraged NUGT (3x).
I think he said that there'll be a 'rebalancing' in holdings to occur on this coming Friday which will apply to most Australian miners in the GDXJ. They will be reduced as a percentage of holdings. I'm guessing the Oz miners are to cop it more than the North American ones because Oz miners have increased in market value more due to the high AUD gold price they enjoy for their product - thus they've risen to a bigger percentage of the indexes. NST will be worst hit as it "has got too big" to qualify for the GDXJ and it will be sold off in the after market of the ASX on Friday (3rd Friday of the last month of the Quarter). This process is signalled so clearly well ahead that some entities reduce their holdings in anticipation. So the damage might already be done price wise. I think that's what he was saying.

Additionally, since the gold miner etfs have been sold by the Insts and public in the States, along with everything else in the scare, the managers of the etfs then have been forced to trim assets (stocks) to reflect the etfs' market value.

Then there's the fact of the recent placement and SPP for both SAR and NST to fund the Kalgoorlie Super Pit acquisition. SAR raised at 2.95 and NST raised at $9.00. Both dipped below their cap raising price (as is common) on Monday and both have now bobbed back above.

I would have topped up on Northern Star when it dipped below $9 if I'd had the disposable cash.

NST and SAR Comparative 6 mths


----------



## Padowan

finicky said:


> And we're back above $2,500aud after last night, NST swings have been hair-raising alright but I look at Saracen (SAR) as being an apt company to compare with Northern Star and I just did a comparative 6 month chart of the two - they're almost identical over that period and still up 10-15%.
> 
> 'Between the Lines Finance' on Patreon (Poster: Nordesmic) has done a brilliant analysis of the GDX and GDXJ etfs, also the leveraged NUGT (3x).
> I think he said that there'll be a 'rebalancing' in holdings to occur on this coming Friday which will apply to most Australian miners in the GDXJ. They will be reduced as a percentage of holdings. I'm guessing the Oz miners are to cop it more than the North American ones because Oz miners have increased in market value more due to the high AUD gold price they enjoy for their product - thus they've risen to a bigger percentage of the indexes. NST will be worst hit as it "has got too big" to qualify for the GDXJ and it will be sold off in the after market of the ASX on Friday (3rd Friday of the last month of the Quarter). This process is signalled so clearly well ahead that some entities reduce their holdings in anticipation. So the damage might already be done price wise. I think that's what he was saying.
> 
> Additionally, since the gold miner etfs have been sold by the Insts and public in the States, along with everything else in the scare, the managers of the etfs then have been forced to trim assets (stocks) to reflect the etfs' market value.
> 
> Then there's the fact of the recent placement and SPP for both SAR and NST to fund the Kalgoorlie Super Pit acquisition. SAR raised at 2.95 and NST raised at $9.00. Both dipped below their cap raising price (as is common) on Monday and both have now bobbed back above.
> 
> I would have topped up on Northern Star when it dipped below $9 if I'd had the disposable cash.
> 
> NST and SAR Comparative 6 mths
> View attachment 101434



I read today that over last two weeks more than u$600m ripped from gold etf’s because of redemptions. 
Because of current cv19 panic trading the usual Stockmarket indices rebalance has been delayed and the hedge funds that had positioned themselves ahead of this have been driving the volatility because of the unexpected delay, SAR probably a candidate for ASX100 post super pit deal


----------



## finicky

The Daily Reckoning thinks a few of our gold miners, including NST, might benefit from the application of a new CSIRO concept in their exploration projects ...

Posted by DR on Friday:
*Unlocking Archean gold*

CSIRO’s discovery relates to a new understanding of mineralisation in the Yilgarn Province in WA.

The research shows formation of ancient gold deposits during the Archean period also produces distinctive patterns of chemical alteration in the surrounding rocks.

CSIRO believes this could greatly assist exploration in the Eastern Yilgarn region.

In layman’s terms, the newly discovered patterns make it faster and more efficient for exploration companies to identify potential new deposits.

The Eastern Yilgarn region, which shares its Archean geology with the highly-endowed Eastern Goldfields, has produced fewer gold discoveries to date than would be expected.

CSIRO believe their new approach could be a more productive alternative that has potential for use globally.

*Why is NST up then?*

NST, along with a host of other Australian gold miners including *Ramelius Resources Ltd [ASX:RMS]* and *Evolution Mining Ltd [ASX:EVN]*, sponsored the project.

Jamie Rogers, General Manager of Exploration for Northern Star, had this to say:

‘_The new approaches developed from the project have challenged conventional wisdom, established new models… Northern Star sponsored the project to help fast track and ultimately benefit from the development of new mineral exploration tools and technologies._’

The research is of obvious significance to NST as their Jundee and Kalgoorlie operation are situated with the Yilgarn region (geologically known as the Archean Yilgarn Craton).

The new exploration technology could help explorers and miners within the Yilgarn Craton identify new areas with gold potential and expand their known gold systems.

There are no announcements out this morning from NST, RMS, or EVN regarding renewed exploration plans in light of CSIRO’s advancements.


----------



## Trav.

Holding NST again.

Huge volume spike on the 29/5 which is the same as EVN ( as per @finicky post above )
Looks to be a bit of sideways action between $13 - $14 so will be watching that this doesn't continue for to long.


----------



## finicky

*NST* @ $14.75

So very good June Quarterly from Northern Star just released.
It brings to a conclusion FY20 basic results, production which came in only 1.6% below the guidance that was withdrawn due to Kung Flu, bloody good.

Stand out for me was the *Pogo* mine (Alaska) comments. While not specific they say that the trend of rising production and productivity was maintained! That was achieved with 36 Covid cases among staff. They say big potential for Pogo when normal conditions return.

Cash, bullion and investments rose by 40% to A$769.5 million in the June Quarter outstripping debt of $700 million and as result the company will now pay the withheld interim *dividend* in July.

They are buying back hedges and accelerating delivery into hedges to increase exposure to spot prices. They are already one of the lowest hedge books as a percentage of production - just 15% of the next three years production committed.

Magoo, you've done it again.

Held
Will probably be selling down 30-40% of my holding during the July/August market melt-up.


----------



## finicky

Well, all time high in NST's price today but have to say a bit uncomfortable about the chart - too much volatility for me on monthly and daily, some indicators not confirming new peaks. Almost started my sell-down of NST today but have a nagging feeling there's more in it short term, might miss out on some 'melt-up' in this one. Will be keeping at least half my holding of NST through the crack-up, that's my current sentiment anyway. It's like free relaxation therapy having something decent in the bank. I s'pose it's not really free though - CGT obligations and opportunity cost.  "Cash - a much underrated financial asset". Not advice needless to say.
Not long to wait for the full June Qtrly,  this Thursday 23rd - that was just the June Qtr production update I referred to in prior post.

NST 2 Year Daily


----------



## finicky

A fantastic move, seems totally rational. A few egos must have been set aside, Finlayson (SAR) will be M.D. Will bring the merged entity into the global top 10, one of the few with all its mines in tier-1 jurisdictions and they say will make the company attractive and investible to generalist money as well as goldbugs.


----------



## Trav.

Another discretionary trade for me here as I believed NST was oversold when the POG went down. I entered 1/12 @ $12.87 so we will see if we can make a couple of bucks here as NST climbs back to $14 ( well I hope so ) with the gold price recovering


----------



## finicky

Anyone topping up in the solid goldies today? All my best advice is that the bottom is pretty c.ose to in for the miners, e.g Jordan Roy-Byrne at https://thedailygold.com/category/editorials/
He's getting a bit strident about it for him. 
Anyway, I finally got back the 652 shares that I lost trying to arbitrage the last Northern Star SPP. Now back to a psychologically satisfying round figure, after starting late, topped up @ $10.89. Have been eyeing more RRL which is now lower than the price I first bought at around 5 years ago! Chart for RRL doesn't look right though. Also interested in more Dacian (DCN) if it gets lower; not that DCN can be called 'solid' yet. Most of my more speccie micro goldies have held up today.


----------



## finicky

Quite a few will be alert to the behaviour of the NST share price this week.
Due to the expansion of its market cap after mergIng with SAR, NST is no longer eligible to be part of the small goldies GDXJ and the mirror etf holding will be sold by day's end this Friday Mar 22 - I think it is over 40M shares? My advice (betweenthelinesfinance on Patreon) is that much of the selling will have been prearranged, "choreographed", and the effect of such huge disposal will be more muted than otherwise expected. A watch to possibly buy for me.


----------



## finicky

Sold my 2,000 VOC shares (VOC is subject to takeover) and tacked on 1,000 NST shares @ $9.11
Good trade I feel. Will add another 1,000 if NST gets smashed when the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners Etf relieves itself of its Northern Star +40M shares around Friday, if it already hasn't done so.
Sitting on a 🌋 when the primary bull market in gold resumes🗿


----------



## finicky

Think NST should be safely past any further reactions to dropping out of the GDXJ now.

A few casual chart comments:

If you take a measured target of the 'double top' in July and October 2020 from 'neckline' @ $13, NST reached that perfectly this March.
Since low of march NST has made a higher low and today has gapped up to a higher high.
Massive positive daily volume on March 19, two days after the low of March 17.
The verdict isn't yet but chart certainly is making a good case for a major low to have been made (as distinct from a definite secondary low)

1 Year Daily


----------



## finicky

Kalgoorlie Super Pit - great rundown from Oct 2020, just before SAR and NST merged. Global scale Gold opportunity in Australia right in front of your eyes. It's just sitting there, ripe for the picking.




Mt Charlotte underground


----------



## finicky

NST March quarterly not flash at all, high costs, Pogo in Alaska and Kalgoorlie (ex KCGM) were barely break even. Nevertheless, I still suspect there are good years directly ahead for this miner. 

Group gold sold of 368,273oz at an *AISC of A$1,598/oz *

Group all-in cost *(AIC) of A$1,952/oz*, they say after significant investment for production growth.

Underlying free cash flow totalled A$97 million. This was after investing A$127 million in growth capital and A$40 million in exploration. There were breaks in production for maintenance at KCGM and Thunderbox. Roughly a third of gold sales were delivered into hedges also impacting revenue. 
There were lower head grades at Pogo due to mine plan sequencing. Kungflu drag at Pogo.

Thought I'd place here a recent interview from the increasing sagacious Marc Faber. He fearlessly lights up during the interview - wonder what he was smoking? At around 35-36 minutes he recommends gold and silver and for the more adventurous, gold miners.


----------



## finicky

NST into the S&P ASX50 - got to be good for fund and index buying.


----------



## mullokintyre

I got my NST shares courtesy of the Saracen merger/takeover.
Kinda hard to evaluate the anuual, as everything is up big time, but  we are not comparing apples with figs here.
Gold prices achieved by the merged org is up 3% which may or may not have happened via the merger.
Guidance is  for pretty much the same production next year.
The big returns will not be happening till after 2024 or 2025 when they expect to be a 2 mill OZ company.

In the meantime, there is some significant capex to be done to reach that target.
Not sure if its worthwhile holding till then, or get out and come back in two years time.
It is still barely above half of what it was back in October last year.

Mick


----------



## finicky

Yes, I had a look at all the announcements they released today and gave up - it's for an accountant to decipher imo. I left the annual report till last where finally I came upon the eps figure I was looking for and that doesn't make much sense either because I don't know how much of it is cash or write up/down of assets or what effect the costs of SAR merger are, or GAAP or Aust Accounting standards effects - ffs - then there's less than a full year contribution from SAR assets. If you take the eps figure of $1.15 seriously we're trading on a p/e of 8.5 which is ridiculous. At least cash/bullion went up modestly and that does not include the $400m from EVN. 

I won't be selling any unless it melts up b4 the crash and take my lumps if everything crashes first - NST should be one of the fast recoverers I suspect.

I'll leave it to my paid analyst to sort out when he gets to commenting on the full year results. Here's his take on the June Qtr results and outlook.


----------



## finicky

NST broke $9 today and is on the edge of the neckline of a 2.5 year messy H&S by my interpretation. Hard to believe that this premium global scale gold miner is down at the nadir level of the March Wuhan crash. I'd probably be taking a punt on the neckline holding and a low being near if I weren't conserving cash. Momentum indicators are showing some divergence and the last 4  months is almost a falling wedge. Volume isn't alarming.

Held


3 Yr Daily


----------



## mullokintyre

Yeah, glad I got out when I did,
Like you I am conserving cash to buy co's like NST SSR and EVN, but hopefully at much cheaper prices.
The interesting thing as that the POG in AUD has not changed a lot in the past few months, but all the goldies  I follow have been in a consistent downward  trend.
Mick


----------



## finicky

Can't edit posts lately from my Galaxy tablet once I have inserted any attachment.
The 'falling wedge' is about 4 months


----------



## mullokintyre

Just keep taking the Tablets finicky, you'll be fine.
Mick


----------



## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> Yeah, glad I got out when I did,
> Like you I am conserving cash to buy co's like NST SSR and EVN, but hopefully at much cheaper prices.
> The interesting thing as that the POG in AUD has not changed a lot in the past few months, but all the goldies  I follow have been in a consistent downward  trend.
> Mick




Interesting how that happens. General market crashes just flush everyone's money away. Scaredy cats. 

Having said that, really odd how badly NST has been punished though. Agree with support there @finicky


----------



## finicky

V shape reversal for NST on the daily and last week's candle was a hammer on better than average volume. The $9 level has been rapidly retaken, go figure - maybe the cabal ran the obvious level for stops. September Quarterly is due in two weeks (Oct 11)

Daily


----------



## Sean K

finicky said:


> V shape reversal for NST on the daily and last week's candle was a hammer on better than average volume. The $9 level has been rapidly retaken, go figure - maybe the cabal ran the obvious level for stops. September Quarterly is due in two weeks (Oct 11)




NST looking a bit like NCM and XGD and prolly a few others. NST just breaking first, intraday. Will be interesting to see the finish and overnight markets.


----------



## Sean K

NST breaking up. Even with NCM down I think the XGD will be breaking up as well.


----------



## Sean K

NST financials summarised in their annual general yesterday and they're sitting on a lot of liquid. $1.5b in available cash, bullion and debt. With EVN spending $1b for a bit of extra copper and silver yesterday made me think what plans these guys have with all this cash on hand and free cash flow going forward. They've either got to give it back, or buy something big. Could easily scoop up a potential Tier 1 asset in a Tier 1 location, either in Australia or Canada probably. Just not too many out there I suppose. Maybe they go risky into the Andes or SE Asia, Africa for diversity? They must be sitting around the big table with a list of assets they'd like to own right now.

Chart wise tracking well, along the lines of most gold instruments. Some decent support tested and respected which was nice to see. Hopefully this emerging upward channel is respected all round.


----------



## finicky

Their all in cost (AIC) is high because they are investing a lot of capital over the next year or so in developing their current assets , according to BtL, so I am not convinced they are looking around for a big acquisition. Could easily be wrong but I have the idea their plate's full for while. I started thinking about selling a 1,000 shares when I saw their most recent AIC across all ops was in the A$1900's


----------



## Sean K

finicky said:


> Their all in cost (AIC) is high because they are investing a lot of capital over the next year or so in developing their current assets , according to BtL, so I am not convinced they are looking around for a big acquisition. Could easily be wrong but I have the idea their plate's full for while. I started thinking about selling a 1,000 shares when I saw their most recent AIC across all ops was in the A$1900's




Yeah, they're probably still bedding down Saracen merger as well so perhaps more focussed on that and 'shareholder value', whatever that could mean. It could mean distribution or pushing the SP up with smart buys. 

You're right on the AISC, around 1.6K is high on the surface of it. Would be nice if that made it closer to $1.2K. Can't see that happening any time soon.


----------



## mullokintyre

finicky said:


> Their all in cost (AIC) is high because they are investing a lot of capital over the next year or so in developing their current assets , according to BtL, so I am not convinced they are looking around for a big acquisition. Could easily be wrong but I have the idea their plate's full for while. I started thinking about selling a 1,000 shares when I saw their most recent AIC across all ops was in the A$1900's



The fourth quarter results out today show your concerns were justified. 
AIC of $2069 per ounce. And the report says the AIC will go higher.
They have some big spending on capital until 2023 when their costs are supposed to go down.
They really need a big jump in gold to attract me.
But lots of goldies will head up with a big jump in gold price, I might wait for a while to get back into this one.
Mick


----------



## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> The fourth quarter results out today show your concerns were justified.
> AIC of $2069 per ounce. And the report says the AIC will go higher.
> They have some big spending on capital until 2023 when their costs are supposed to go down.
> They really need a big jump in gold to attract me.
> But lots of goldies will head up with a big jump in gold price, I might wait for a while to get back into this one.
> Mick




AISC is supposed to come down a little, not sure what the AIC rise is apart from capex for exploration/development/maintenance?

They've got a lot of cash and bullion in the bank. Must be burning a hole in their pockets.

I'm not sure where the extra 400Koz are coming from _exactly_ to get to 2Moz pa by FY26? They note the projects they're going to expand but I haven't seen the exact numbers anywhere.


----------



## finicky

My whole world is falling apart (investment wise)
Kingsgate mauled, CHN only steady after a vicious drubbing on the previous trading day; now NST has gapped down and yet again broken the $9 neckline of my imagined irregular head and shoulders top. Maybe NST is only worth $1 - which is the mindless mechanical target of the 'measured move' below the $9 neckline. I see measured moves as a useful perspective sometimes but at other times they calculate as ridiculous targets and of course the identified pattern has to be meaningful to begin with. In conclusion, the emphatic break of $9 today is not a good look.  

Daily


----------



## divs4ever

finicky said:


> In conclusion, the emphatic break of $9 today is not a good look.



 looked awesome to me  , i added a handful @ $8.65 

 it's not the day's low  for sure  , but sub $9 was acceptable for me 

 am a fair bit harsher on EVN ( but still have a buy order in )

 cheers


----------



## tech/a

Over the years Id rather be out early and wrong than be out late and right.
Once I'm out the market cant hurt me. When I'm out I have control. When I'm out 
the stress of watching the very ODD one move above my sale price way outweighs the 
stress of hoping the fall stops and I regain my loss.

I can always buy high and sell higher.

By far the best Exit I have found and one that would help me in even my longer-term trading 
is an exit on the first sign of weakness. Which can be very different for all of us.


----------



## Sean K

finicky said:


> My whole world is falling apart (investment wise)
> Kingsgate mauled, CHN only steady after a vicious drubbing on the previous trading day; now NST has gapped down and yet again broken the $9 neckline of my imagined irregular head and shoulders top. Maybe NST is only worth $1 - which is the mindless mechanical target of the 'measured move' below the $9 neckline. I see measured moves as a useful perspective sometimes but at other times they calculate as ridiculous targets and of course the identified pattern has to be meaningful to begin with. In conclusion, the emphatic break of $9 today is not a good look.
> 
> Daily
> View attachment 136624




It's a conundrum. You've been bearish for a year, at least, foresaw this correction, and are cashed up I think, so this represents a solid gold opportunity I reckon. I've kept my handful of stocks as I still have some conviction in my original investment thesis for all of them, but have a pot of gold to deploy once the dust settles, as I think you do too.


----------



## finicky

Yes that's pretty right @Sean K, I should have used an emoticon to signal being dramatic; tone often doesn't carry when using text. My position is ok but far from ideal for when the dam breaks. Just did my sums and at about 14% cash proportion to total liquid assets comprising cash, shares and precious metals account. My cash goal for end of the world was 30%.


----------



## Sean K

finicky said:


> Yes that's pretty right @Sean K, I should have used an emoticon to signal being dramatic; tone often doesn't carry when using text. My position is ok but far from ideal for when the dam breaks. Just did my sums and at about 14% cash proportion to total liquid assets comprising cash, shares and precious metals account. My cash goal for end of the world was 30%.




It’s been a tough 12 mths for gold bugs, but we will have our day.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Sean K said:


> It’s been a tough 12 mths for gold bugs, but we will have our day.




Speak for yourself 

I hold the underlying as a portfolio diversifier and extra-financial asset, sleeping like a baby


----------



## InsvestoBoy

I don't really "get" gold miners as an investment, it's a hard and capital intensive business with low ROE and they are selling the thing you want (gold) for the the thing you are trying to get rid of (money).


----------



## InsvestoBoy

I mean....


----------



## Sean K

InsvestoBoy said:


> I don't really "get" gold miners as an investment, it's a hard and capital intensive business with low ROE and they are selling the thing you want (gold) for the the thing you are trying to get rid of (money).




Most of us are investing in stocks listed on the ASX, Mr Boy. What are you actually investing in?


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Sean K said:


> Most of us are investing in stocks listed on the ASX, Mr Boy. What are you actually investing in?




I buy stocks too! Like I said, the gold is a diversifier 

I mostly invest at the index and factor level but I do hold one single stock right now, NASDAQ:VIRT.


----------



## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> It’s been a tough 12 mths for gold bugs, but we will have our day.



???
AIS two buys ( 15 cents and 13.5 cents ) more of a copper play but bought a working gold mine 

 EVN @ $3.72 

 GOR @ $1.25 

WGX @ $1.90 

 NST  two buys  $8.65 , $9.75 

RRL  four buys  $1.73 , $1.99, $2.03 , $2.44

 RMS  two buys $1.48 , $1.63 

 in the last 12 months 

 i have been having a great time ,  now the PAY-DAY might be a way down the track  but i would rather these than Treasury Bonds currently


----------



## divs4ever

i have gold as well , just not in bullion form 

 the 'money' i get rid of to pay bills  ( so i can keep the gold  for absolute emergencies )


----------



## finicky

Yeah, we're stock pickers.


----------



## mullokintyre

Getting Back to what this particular thread is about, NST had a  steady quarter based on figures just out.
Generating lots of cash, however they need the gold price in AUD to keep edging higher as the AISC  for most of them edges higher at the same time.
POGO still a bit of a downer,  high costs, they had better hope the 1.mtpa mill expansion goes smoothly.
Nice divvy of 10CPS, plenty of cash generated, with increasing production forecast over next three years.
Worth holding.
Mick


----------



## divs4ever

10 February 2022
FINANCIAL RESULTS
HALF YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2021

Strong financial position and growth path validate benefits from Saracen merger
▪ Reported net profit after tax (NPAT) of A$261 million (up 43%) driven by higher production and
portfolio optimisation. Underlying NPAT of A$108 million, excluding significant items of A$153 million.
▪ Underlying EBITDA of A$699 million, up 47% from pcp. Group Underlying EBITDA margin of 39%.
▪ Cash earnings1
of A$430 million.
▪ Cash and bullion of A$588 million. Net cash2
of A$288 million.
▪ Board declares fully franked interim dividend of 10 cents per share, up 5% from pcp.
▪ Key growth projects progressing in line with strategy to become a 2Mozpa producer by FY26, including
KCGM open pit development (Kalgoorlie) and Thunderbox mill expansion (Yandal).
Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) (Northern Star) is pleased to report its financial results for the half year ended 31
December 2021.
Commenting on the results, Northern Star Resources Managing Director Stuart Tonkin said:
“These results cover the first full reporting period since our merger with Saracen in February 2021 and demonstrate the
potential that exists within Northern Star as we work towards our strategy to become a 2Mozpa gold producer by FY26. This
production growth, alongside a declining cost base, will be delivered organically and with one of the lowest capital intensities in
the industry.
“We delivered strong half year cash earnings1 of A$430 million and invested in our growth initiatives. The Board declared a fully
franked interim dividend of 10 cents per share, a return to shareholders of 27% of cash earnings. This return is consistent with
our capital management framework while having regard to the need of maintaining a strong balance sheet and the ability to
pursue value-adding investment opportunities.
“We remain on track to meet our FY22 production guidance, which incorporates current WA border restrictions and the
associated labour and cost impacts. During this period of continued market volatility, we are focused on operational delivery
and proactively protecting the health, safety and wellbeing of our people and those in the communities in which we operate.”
Financial result overview:
Revenue of A$1,807 million was up 63% from the prior half year, primarily due to higher gold volumes, with gold sales 289,786
ounces higher. The average realised gold price was consistent across both periods.
Cost of sales were higher than the comparative period. Generally, the increase arose from a combination of increased activity
with the inclusion of the Saracen Minerals Holdings’ merger assets in the current half (107% increase period on period), higher
average cash costs per ounce (H1 2022: A$1,256/oz vs H1 2021: A$1,196/oz) and the increase in depreciation and
1 Cash Earnings defined as Underlying EBITDA less net interest and tax paid and sustaining capital.
2 Net Cash is defined as cash and bullion less corporate bank debt (A$300 million).
ASX Announcement

2
amortisation unit costs (increase of A$291/sold oz), due to the required non-cash uplift to fair value of the merger assets,
compared to the historic cash cost of those same assets.
During the period, Northern Star made a net repayment of A$361 million of corporate bank debt. The acquisition of
Newmont’s power business was also completed in the period for total purchase consideration of A$130 million and the Group
made a C$154 million (A$170 million) investment in a Convertible Debenture with Osisko Mining Inc. The sale of the Kundana
Assets also occurred in the current half year, resulting in assets (and liabilities) held for sale at 30 June 2021 being realised for
A$402 million (and contributing a pre-tax gain of A$242 million).
Operating cash flows for the period were A$622 million. Investing cash flows excluding payments or receipts related to
business development activities (including investments and divestments) were 106 per cent higher (H1 2022: A$447 million,
H1 2021: A$217 million). Financing cash flows for the period resulted in a net outflow of A$551 million (H1 2021: outflow of
A$560 million).
The interim fully franked dividend record date is 8 March 2022, with the payment date 29 March 2022.


===================================================================================================

DYOR

i have bought extra in the last year

so have some cash at risk again

keep an eye on those costs there will be some inflationary rises but bigger companies trend to accumulate fat and bloat


----------



## Sean K

divs4ever said:


> 10 February 2022
> FINANCIAL RESULTS
> HALF YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2021




Even though the're giving some dividends (which I don't really care about), and seem to banking on organic growth, they're developing a pot of gold that will be burning a hole in their pocket during this year. What are they going to do with all that cash and bullion? Must be considering another M&A option to tack on some additional ounces without getting too unwieldy. A mid cap producer with a good resource and slow AISC with quality exploration ground...


----------



## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> Even though the're giving some dividends (which I don't really care about), and seem to banking on organic growth, they're developing a pot of gold that will be burning a hole in their pocket during this year. What are they going to do with all that cash and bullion? Must be considering another M&A option to tack on some additional ounces without getting too unwieldy. A mid cap producer with a good resource and slow AISC with quality exploration ground...




yes the divs matter to me ( even if they go to buy more shares/assets )

 but NST has been a bit aggressive since i bought in ( February 2013 ) @ 87 cents  i would be caught between  stock-piling cash and finding a sensible place to invest ( if i was in their shoes .. and i am in a tiny way )

 personally i would like to see them line up all the ducks  from the recent acquisitions and divestments 

 i was hoping  to buy more cheaper ( say around $8.60 ) but that is not looking so likely this week 

 BTW i expect costs in general to rise  , so i would expect to see SOME cost reductions  , am still waiting to see if they over-paid for the North American assets .


----------



## divs4ever

WHOOPS !!

 got that order @ $8.65  last month  am looking for more closer to $8  ( and $8.60 is very likely this week   after i cared to look at the SHARE PRICE )

 maybe i should just go back to bed


----------



## finicky

Just a comment on the monthly NST chart -  I think it's behaving well for holders and signs look good to me if you are taking a longer term approach.


Many long upper wicks were thrown back in the months of 2020, red flag in hindsight.
Lower bollinger 'tested' in subsequent downtrend. Took 8 years for lower band to be tested.
The downtrend was first broken in Nov 2021
The real  break came in Feb 2022
Feb 2022 candle is a very strong reversal candle paired with Jan. High volume too.
RSI breakout from downtrend, crossing neutral. Lots of headroom.
MACD ready to cross its signal line. Also lots of runway.
Has escaped a big head and shoulders pattern, bullish to me.

Held
Hold

Decade Monthly


----------



## Trader X

finicky said:


> Just a comment on the monthly NST chart - I think it's behaving well for holders and signs look good to me if you are taking a longer term approach.



NST peaked at just over $17/share in Nov 2020 with gold @ $2070/ounce USD.  Now that gold is trading at @ $1974 with NST trading at $11.44, one would be inclined to conclude there is a lot more upside potential for NST as the gold price firms and if it pushes through $2k again.  Seems to be more hesitation to bid up the gold miners than in the past with a rising gold price.  No doubt rising interest rates play a part in this.

Hold NST.


----------



## Sean K

Inflation and supply chain hasn't seemed to effect NSTs costs last year. Looks like it's all in line with forecast on the surface of it. Good news.


----------



## mullokintyre

Sean K said:


> Inflation and supply chain hasn't seemed to effect NSTs costs last year. Looks like it's all in line with forecast on the surface of it. Good news.
> 
> View attachment 144313



Market did not seem impressed , marked down 13 cents.
I am happy to buy more below 6.70.
Mick


----------



## eskys

Volume has gone up, almost 4 million has changed hands at time of writing, and stock up........big bucks messing around this morning? They pushed it up and down


----------



## eskys

*Most Popular Stocks* 

                Sells               Buys   MQG   BHP    FMG   AKE    XRO   LKE    PLS   NST    MFG   WHC    LYC   ETPMAG  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    According to Commsec's site today, NST is one of the popular buys


----------



## finicky

They're spending too much on development capital to interest me at the moment. And it will be similar in  fy23. They've withdrawn guidance as to capital expenditure in fy24. In fact they have a capital hungry 5 year growth plan going out to and including fy26. Throw in high ASIC, inflationary environment, Covid, and exploration $120-125Mn annually, Fed profit tax, State royalty. WTF? What are we pulling it out of the ground for - to plough most of it back in? They're still hedging. I am unenamoured of fy26, I want a slice of the fat AUD gold price pie now.

Held


----------



## mullokintyre

finicky said:


> They're spending too much on development capital to interest me at the moment. And it will be similar in  fy23. They've withdrawn guidance as to capital expenditure in fy24. In fact they have a capital hungry 5 year growth plan going out to and including fy26. Throw in high ASIC, inflationary environment, Covid, and exploration $120-125Mn annually, Fed profit tax, State royalty. WTF? What are we pulling it out of the ground for - to plough most of it back in? They're still hedging. I am unenamoured of fy26, I want a slice of the fat AUD gold price pie now.
> 
> Held



perhaps you just need to take a shorter time frame.
At least NST pays a divvy.
I am happy to buy anywhere below 6.70, and then look to take my profits around the 7.45 mark (or higher).
Mick


----------



## finicky

@mullokintyre is 6.70 or so your valuation on fundamentals? I can't see any significance for that price on a chart? I was hideously wrong in a prior charting post with the opinion that the monthly chart was cause for optimism; in the outcome it marked a peak. There's a big head and shoulders above $9.


----------



## eskys

Price of gold was static last night but our dollar is a bit stronger against the greenback. If this holds and the US market performs tonight, we'll have a fighting chance. At the moment, looks like investors have been singed and don't even want to think about it (rightly so) I have no idea where it's going, looks like equal numbers want it, and same want out. 

I'm watching the dollar (fe down last night, but because our dollar a bit stronger, fe miners doing ok today) Gotta watch it, never know which way it'll go)


----------



## divs4ever

finicky said:


> They're spending too much on development capital to interest me at the moment. And it will be similar in  fy23. They've withdrawn guidance as to capital expenditure in fy24. In fact they have a capital hungry 5 year growth plan going out to and including fy26. Throw in high ASIC, inflationary environment, Covid, and exploration $120-125Mn annually, Fed profit tax, State royalty. WTF? What are we pulling it out of the ground for - to plough most of it back in? They're still hedging. I am unenamoured of fy26, I want a slice of the fat AUD gold price pie now.
> 
> Held




 yes i am hesitant of adding more  ( NST )  currently 

 am preferring other gold miners currently ( BUT CAREFULLY as i expect cost blow-outs across the industry )

 one to watch might be SXE ( i hold )  to see if they get more work  converting mine power plants


----------



## mullokintyre

finicky said:


> @mullokintyre is 6.70 or so your valuation on fundamentals? I can't see any significance for that price on a chart? I was hideously wrong in a prior charting post with the opinion that the monthly chart was cause for optimism; in the outcome it marked a peak. There's a big head and shoulders above $9.



Howdy F, I really don't do charting. its a science that I have little faith in my ability to undertake.
6.70 is a level I am comfortable with, and I look to make 10 to 15% on my trades.
Nothing terribly scientific about it, but it works out  enough times to let me sleep easily.
Mick


----------



## finicky

Dow up well over a thousand, USD gold up strongly - should be a good market generally today.
Just passing on that Greg Canavan of fat tail research whom I like seems close to recommending NST as a buy in his latest vid. His approach is not to bottom pick but wait for a positive trend to be reasonably established. He views NST as the highest quality gold producer listed on the ASX due to its long life quality assets and good management. Bit skeprical of all that - higher quality than PRU or SSR? And management - founders Beament and Finlayson jumped ship when the company was on a high, taking sackfuls of equity with them and leaving unproven successors to deal with production problems that emerged.

Held and Holding
Won't be buying more NST

Daily (with 50,100 dmas)


----------



## Trader X

finicky said:


> Just passing on that Greg Canavan of fat tail research whom I like seems close to recommending NST as a buy in his latest vid. His approach is not to bottom pick but wait for a positive trend to be reasonably established.



Bit skeptical also, mining operational costs have risen significantly across the board.  If the next activities report reflects this and revises guidance downward, expect share price weakness in spite of a rising gold price.


----------



## rcw1

Good morning
Northern Star Resources Limited (NST) will release its quarterly report for the period ended 31 December 2022 pre-open on the ASX platform on Thursday, 19 January 2023.  Nice.
NST has 10% ownership of PXX.
NST 52 week high today (11/01/23).

Holding
Kindly conduct your own due diligence.
Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## finicky

fwiw G Canavan at f'tail advisory is still neutral. His view pretty much mine is except with more conviction and thought on his side. I am mostly set for long term in gold stocks and don't care about an anticipated pullback although I would look again at EVN and SLR at a lower price (don't hold either). I admit it is risky to hold off buying for anyone wanting a position in gold stocks.
Greg has a previous recco with a current *hold* sentiment for NST.
An excerpt from yesterday's advisory:

"Gold and gold stocks continue to rally
Does this sound familiar?
You wait for a correction, and it never comes. Then you lose patience, buy-in, and the correction comes…
My feeling is that this is what’s going to happen to a lot of people chasing the gold stock rally.
For now, though, I’m the one that has this wrong in the short term, at least. I thought a correction would have unfolded by now. But the rally just keeps going.
As you can see below, the Aussie Gold Index started the year strongly, surging through resistance (chart)

But it’s also back into overbought territory (shows daily chart RSI at overbought level), meaning it is stretched in the short term.
This is where chasing rallies can be dangerous.  
So I’d continue to recommend patience here.
I’m confident you’ll get a chance to add gold exposure at better prices in the weeks/months ahead."

Held


----------



## Sean K

finicky said:


> fwiw G Canavan at f'tail advisory is still neutral. His view pretty much mine is except with more conviction and thought on his side. I am mostly set for long term in gold stocks and don't care about an anticipated pullback although I would look again at EVN and SLR at a lower price (don't hold either). I admit it is risky to hold off buying for anyone wanting a position in gold stocks.
> Greg has a previous recco with a current *hold* sentiment for NST.
> An excerpt from yesterday's advisory:
> 
> "Gold and gold stocks continue to rally
> Does this sound familiar?
> You wait for a correction, and it never comes. Then you lose patience, buy-in, and the correction comes…
> My feeling is that this is what’s going to happen to a lot of people chasing the gold stock rally.
> For now, though, I’m the one that has this wrong in the short term, at least. I thought a correction would have unfolded by now. But the rally just keeps going.
> As you can see below, the Aussie Gold Index started the year strongly, surging through resistance (chart)
> 
> But it’s also back into overbought territory (shows daily chart RSI at overbought level), meaning it is stretched in the short term.
> This is where chasing rallies can be dangerous.
> So I’d continue to recommend patience here.
> I’m confident you’ll get a chance to add gold exposure at better prices in the weeks/months ahead."
> 
> Held




Agree with everything here. Reminds me why being a bit contrarian as a longer term investor can be of benefit. Buy when things are in the dog house and skim profits when they're frothy. Also shows the benefit of holding core investments in longer term conviction stocks/sectors that are just going through a cycle with the most probable future outcome being up. You can never precisely pick absolute bottoms or tops, but if you're longer term, you don't need to. Some high profile TAs still picking a significant pullback on gold, which I will be happy with in order to add for what might be a significant run from this 2.5 year consolidation period.


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