# Marketing Timing Investing



## robertbanking (13 May 2022)

Hello you very intelligent and caring people that make up this forum. I do hope your day is going well so far.

I research shares i am going to buy in detail, from looking at how the company makes profits, how much debt the business has, what do employees say about working for the company. I also look into the annual accounts for the last few years in detail. However i am really poor at trying to buy stocks on dips when adding them to my watchlist. I understand it might not be wise buying a stock when it is reaching its 52 week high, but does anyone kindly please have any thoughts on finding a better way to trying to buy stocks at more reasonable levels? I know there is no magic formula, but if anyone could kindly help me with this i would be forever grateful and thankful.

Thank you so much for your time. Sending you lots of good wishes and hope you enjoy your day. Take care.


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## divs4ever (13 May 2022)

robertbanking said:


> Hello you very intelligent and caring people that make up this forum. I do hope your day is going well so far.
> 
> I research shares i am going to buy in detail, from looking at how the company makes profits, how much debt the business has, what do employees say about working for the company. I also look into the annual accounts for the last few years in detail. However i am really poor at trying to buy stocks on dips when adding them to my watchlist. I understand it might not be wise buying a stock when it is reaching its 52 week high, but does anyone kindly please have any thoughts on finding a better way to trying to buy stocks at more reasonable levels? I know there is no magic formula, but if anyone could kindly help me with this i would be forever grateful and thankful.
> 
> Thank you so much for your time. Sending you lots of good wishes and hope you enjoy your day. Take care.



 now market-timing is nice if your a longer term investor  ( ESSENTIAL if a short-term trader )

 but if buying long(er ) term and doing that research   , isn't WHICH stock to buy the most important bit  , once you have a target stock  what is a 'comfortable price ' ( for you )

 take my adventure into FMG   my first  parcel  was bought last year ( before the div. was declared  ) @ $19.90 ( from memory )  and i was ( and am still ) quite happy with that,
 FMG  declared a $2 ( plus )div.  now AFTER that  the FMG has dipped several times since  , i have double-checked the company ( it still hasn't gone toxic )  so i have bought two parcels more a fair bit cheaper than $19.90 ( actually  below $17.70 , so missing out on the div. for those was no biggie )

 now sure i could have bought more shares cheaper  , and i could have beaten myself up for not waiting longer , but i got the first parcel 'at a fair price ' ( by my calculations ) and took two opportunities to add more cheaper 

 was that a bad decision , or should i still be waiting , say at $12.50  to buy my first parcel  ( only you can answer that for yourself )

 but i think the most important bit is to find those good companies FIRST and then decide the maximum price you will pay for those shares

 ( any price less is a nice bonus , IMO )

if buying dips is important to you   learning about Elliott Waves and market cycles  might be helpful 

 i just wake up with  a price in my head ( say BHP for $25 )  if the market price is MUCH higher  i shrug and move on ( if it was say $27  , i would enter a bid in the market and see if i get a bite , i might have to wait months , but i can be patient )

 cheers


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## divs4ever (13 May 2022)

an extra thought on this  ,  WATCH the whole sector  of the company you are interested in   say the major banks ( or iron miners ) there is a tendency for than whole niche to move lower ( almost ) together  ,

 say WBC puts out an release  about stressed mortgages  , there is a trend that most of the banking sector will go lower , on that news ,   so YOUR target ( say NAB ) comes close to a price you are willing to pay 

 good luck


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## robertbanking (14 May 2022)

Thank you very much for responding divs4ever that is very kind of you, you are an amazing person. I very much appreciate your response.

I absolutely agree with you doing the research and selecting which stock to buy is the most important. Its very interesting to hear how you bought FMG over a period of time and in tranches, i believe that is a very clever strategy. I just feel although i select some good stocks, i could have got in at better prices to make a larger profit margin and i suppose its about getting better at assessing a fair value and finding the right time to buy. However i agree with you, its good not to be over obsessive like you say waiting for $12.50 to buy your first parcel of FMG as you might miss the longer term trends and movements in share price.

I very much appreciate your response it has given me alot to think about. Thank you very much for your support. Hope you have a pleasant day.


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## divs4ever (14 May 2022)

buying the tranches  is more about controlling 'the fear' of paying too much  for a stock  

 now if you can find the briefings CDM ( a LIC that i hold ) often does precisely the opposite  with the same stock ( when we buy/sell the same stock  , they buy the rally  in tranches  and sell SOME early at the sign of a fair dip )  now sure they might be using trailing stops for this  ( i don't use stops )

 in March 2020  they sold the majority of the portfolio  in weeks  ( ready to buy the recovery ) whereas  i already had some cash reserves  and was CAUTIOUSLY buying in that drop  all the way through October 2020 

 sometimes i have to wait years for the target price ( three years for BPT ) and sometimes missing out is a blessing in disguise  , like missing MLT , MLT looked rather attractive ( at the right price )  but converted into SOL  not so interesting ( i bought my SOL in 2011 , under $14 ) 

  my main aim is div. income ( for the rest of my life ) i expect inflation to eat the heart out of my portfolio $value  ( a million bucks  in 2022 isn't a quarter as impressive as in 1992  so by 2030  a million might only buy a mid-level car  ) but that div. income ( helped by a bit of DRP , MIGHT do enough )


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## Value Collector (15 May 2022)

robertbanking said:


> Hello you very intelligent and caring people that make up this forum. I do hope your day is going well so far.
> 
> I research shares i am going to buy in detail, from looking at how the company makes profits, how much debt the business has, what do employees say about working for the company. I also look into the annual accounts for the last few years in detail. However i am really poor at trying to buy stocks on dips when adding them to my watchlist. I understand it might not be wise buying a stock when it is reaching its 52 week high, but does anyone kindly please have any thoughts on finding a better way to trying to buy stocks at more reasonable levels? I know there is no magic formula, but if anyone could kindly help me with this i would be forever grateful and thankful.
> 
> Thank you so much for your time. Sending you lots of good wishes and hope you enjoy your day. Take care.



I just buy the stock when the price looks good compared to my estimates of its future earning power, what the share market does the next day or week is random, so trying to time the market is futile in my opinion.

50% of the time it will go up after you bought and 50% of the time it will go down, but as long as you are correct in your estimates of its future earning power then you can ignore the market movements in the short term and know that over time is dividends and share price growth will be well worth the price you paid.


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## robertbanking (15 May 2022)

Thank you very much for responding divs4ever i truly appreciate your reply very much.

Amazing and you are a true Warren Buffett buying when others are fearful and a real amazing investor. Interesting how you bought all the way through from March 2020 to October 2020 that is wonderful. I appreciate you sharing this information.

I would be very worried haha if in 2030 a million bucks only bought a mid-level car but who knows maybe you are right. If inflation carries on as it is a million bucks will only buy a latte and a blueberry muffin in the coffee shop in 2030. Lets hope that does not happen though. 

Thanks very much for sharing your insights you have been a star and more than helpful. Thanks again and hope you have a pleasant day.


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## divs4ever (16 May 2022)

well China is annoyed with half the world  , has a tight grip on SOME  battery technology and REE useful for high quality magnets , add in inflation over 5 years  and  an accelerated push to EVs  , so sadly not as impossible as i would hope it to be 

 the reverse possibility is the global economy implodes so badly  only a few can afford any car at all ( because most need all their income for food and shelter )

 and that buying was CAUTIOUSLY ( keeping some investing cash in reserve )

 and in the suburb i grew up in ,  a million bucks only buys a tidy home  ( maybe a 3 bedroom  'workers cottage '  60 year old ones at that ) ( only 10 kilometres from the city centre  and NOTHING like  a McMansions 

 and don't worry about the ( investing ) fear , it keeps me from buying big ( whether the time was right to or not ) so far it is a useful partner to greed 

 but you are going have to tweak all that to best suit YOU


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## Knobby22 (10 June 2022)

Bottom in August?


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## peter2 (10 June 2022)

I'll call the bottom when the ASF Monthly comp has no-one in the green at the EOM. It can't get any worse when this happens. LOL


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## Dona Ferentes (10 June 2022)

peter2 said:


> I'll call the bottom when the ASF Monthly comp has no-one in the green at the EOM. It can't get any worse when this happens.



Or when the day comes and there are *no* discussions in the Stock threads on the forum, during ASX opening hours.


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## divs4ever (10 June 2022)

peter2 said:


> I'll call the bottom when the ASF Monthly comp has no-one in the green at the EOM. It can't get any worse when this happens. LOL



 oh ye of boundless optimism  !!


 an easy 5000 points of potential downside after that happens


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