# Is it really doom and gloom?



## It's Snake Pliskin (1 October 2008)

Is anyone ready to start buying in the current market conditions? Or do you see it as doom and gloom? 

DISCUSSION ONLY.


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## Sean K (1 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Is anyone ready to start buying in the current market conditions? Or do you see it as doom and gloom?
> 
> DISCUSSION ONLY.



Considering it, but in no rush. I`m going to wait to see what else climbs out of the closset over the coming weeks.


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## THE BUZZ (1 October 2008)

don't think theres any urgency in jumping in, seems the common theme is 1 step forward 2 steps back.


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## Aussiejeff (1 October 2008)

YAY! Doom & gloom is OVER, man - OVERRRRR!

The dead cat has been jolted back to animation by the *Mighty Mighty Fed* with what now appears to be an UNLIMITED supply of _*$StarBucks!*_ [size=+2]WE ARE ALL SAVED!![/size]

[size=+4]BUY, BUY, BUY!!!!!*[/size]

[size=-8]*Of course, this "expert's" "recommendation" is not to be taken seriously.... [/size]


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## white_goodman (1 October 2008)

limited exposure at best.... im only in for 1 stock at any one time at the moment and im holding less than 24 hours. Try and keep the stop tight where possible...


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## wayneL (1 October 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> YAY! Doom & gloom is OVER, man - OVERRRRR!
> 
> The dead cat has been jolted back to animation by the *Mighty Mighty Fed* with what now appears to be an UNLIMITED supply of _*$StarBucks!*_ [size=+2]WE ARE ALL SAVED!![/size]
> 
> [size=+4]BUY, BUY, BUY!!!!!*[/size]




You're really Cramer, right?

:  :


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## noirua (1 October 2008)

NO IT'S NOT!  The weak Aussie will reduce imports as they become very expensive.  Exports are saved on both fronts.  Both fronts?  Yes!. Commodities are priced in US$ and will offset falling commodity prices and other exports will be cheaper. That's the beauty of it.


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## Nyden (1 October 2008)

noirua said:


> NO IT'S NOT!  The weak Aussie will reduce imports as they become very expensive.  Exports are saved on both fronts.  Both fronts?  Yes!. Commodities are priced in US$ and will offset falling commodity prices and other exports will be cheaper. That's the beauty of it.




You just said so yourself though; imports will become very expensive ... Let's face it, very few quality products come out of Australia. Cars, electronics, furniture, clothing, pharmaceuticals, toys, fuel, food, even fruit and veg! - You name it, we import it.

So; whilst certain business might profit from this; the average person is surely going to suffer?

 ... can't live off of bananas alone, in our little republic


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## noirua (1 October 2008)

Nyden said:


> You just said so yourself though; imports will become very expensive ... Let's face it, very few quality products come out of Australia. Cars, electronics, furniture, clothing, pharmaceuticals, toys, fuel, food, even fruit and veg! - You name it, we import it.
> 
> So; whilst certain business might profit from this; the average person is surely going to suffer?
> 
> ... can't live off of bananas alone, in our little republic



REPUBLIC where?  They say that Bananas, baked beans, peanuts and water is all you need to live off, providing you add a vitamin and minerals tablet. 

On exports: Australia exports large quantities of wine and lager beers. Australia exports very large and increasing quantities of a whole range of minerals, pig iron, oil, coal and Gas from the North West Shelf by Woodside. Pig iron from Rio's Hismelt smelter in WA and long steel by OneSteel. Also, music exports to the United States that have grown in the last 3 years.
80% of all agricultural production is exported.


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## Julia (1 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Is anyone ready to start buying in the current market conditions?




No.


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## noirua (1 October 2008)

Julia said:


> No.





Yes


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## wayneL (1 October 2008)

noirua said:


> Yes




Short :batman:


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## arae (1 October 2008)

The last 6 months I've been range trading one particular stock I know intimately. It's a long term hold, so I continually re-buy the same amount of shares and pocket the profits. I wouldn't feel confident doing the same with any other stock though.


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## korrupt_1 (1 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Is anyone ready to start buying in the current market conditions?




yes


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## Nyden (1 October 2008)

noirua said:


> REPUBLIC where?  They say that Bananas, baked beans, peanuts and water is all you need to live off, providing you add a vitamin and minerals tablet.
> 
> On exports: Australia exports large quantities of wine and lager beers. Australia exports very large and increasing quantities of a whole range of minerals, pig iron, oil, coal and Gas from the North West Shelf by Woodside. Pig iron from Rio's Hismelt smelter in WA and long steel by OneSteel. Also, music exports to the United States that have grown in the last 3 years.
> 80% of all agricultural production is exported.




I was of course referring to us being a banana republic; I guess I could call us a banana colony? 

Ahh ... so, we export commodities? Oh, wait, commodities and booze.

How many of us derive income from these companies though? Must we all have commodity exposure in Australia just to keep up with inflation?

And, of course - if commodities do finally sink? What then, are we stuffed? 


Oh, and in response to the thread;
I came very close to yesterday (darn ), but decided against it - as too many people are still oddly bullish ... perhaps clinging to the faith in commodities. I'm waiting to see the kind of panic that's in the US over here, or if that never comes - at least until we're in a confirmed uptrend again.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (1 October 2008)

Julia said:


> No.




Why not Julia?


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## Bushman (1 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Is anyone ready to start buying in the current market conditions? Or do you see it as doom and gloom?
> 
> DISCUSSION ONLY.




Better going long today than 12 months ago.  

Not for those inclined to sea sickness.


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## Sir Osisofliver (1 October 2008)

As I've said in another thread somewhere around here...I'm currently buying a small amount of my total long term portfolio. About 15% of the the total weighting in certain sectors of the market...and I expect that it will take me 6 to 12 months to become fully invested.  With that in mind...

Yes it's all doom and gloom....there is no hope...you will be assimilated by the evil terrorist shorters... Don't research fundamentals...don't contact the company officers and bug them for information about the company...don't investigate the ways in which you can protect yourself from downside risk... Just dispair and come running back to the market when it all looks rosy again and get back in at the top of the next cycle.  Be afraid..be very very afraid....at least until I'm fully invested and then feel free to pin your ears back and *BUY BUY BUY.*


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## It's Snake Pliskin (1 October 2008)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> As I've said in another thread somewhere around here...I'm currently buying a small amount of my total long term portfolio. About 15% of the the total weighting in certain sectors of the market...and I expect that it will take me 6 to 12 months to become fully invested.  With that in mind...
> 
> Yes it's all doom and gloom....there is no hope...you will be assimilated by the evil terrorist shorters... Don't research fundamentals...don't contact the *company officers* and bug them for information about the company...don't investigate the ways in which you can protect yourself from downside risk... Just *dispair *and come running back to the market when it all looks rosy again and get back in at the top of the next cycle.  Be afraid..be very very afraid....at least until I'm fully invested and then feel free to pin your ears back and *BUY BUY BUY.*




What is a company officer?

What is dispair?


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## Nyden (1 October 2008)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> As I've said in another thread somewhere around here...I'm currently buying a small amount of my total long term portfolio. About 15% of the the total weighting in certain sectors of the market...and I expect that it will take me 6 to 12 months to become fully invested.  With that in mind...
> 
> Yes it's all doom and gloom....there is no hope...you will be assimilated by the evil terrorist shorters... Don't research fundamentals...don't contact the company officers and bug them for information about the company...don't investigate the ways in which you can protect yourself from downside risk... Just dispair and come running back to the market when it all looks rosy again and get back in at the top of the next cycle.  Be afraid..be very very afraid....at least until I'm fully invested and then feel free to pin your ears back and *BUY BUY BUY.*





Wow .. just, wow 

You postulate that by the time things look rosy; a bull market will already have come and gone? That's just a stupid thing to say, sorry. Many of the big moves up may have been missed, but to say the top of the cycle will already be reached ... Buying for fear of missing the _big move_ is just knife catching.


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## THE BUZZ (1 October 2008)

HANG THOSE BALLS OUT TO PLAY SIR.


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## fimmwolf (1 October 2008)

The bill will most likely get passed on Thursday (U.S. time) so I wouldn't be surprised if there are big moves here on Friday.


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## Sir Osisofliver (2 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> What is a company officer?
> 
> What is dispair?




1) company officer = managing director, company secretary, directors, investor relations, board members etc etc

2) typo I did not mean to separate a pair...but instead be overcome by a sense of futility or hopelessness.

So tell me snake...ever make a typo? Persoanlly it nevar bovvers me if'n I be makin a shtuff-up, I uzully maange to muudle my way froo what was ment.  

Sir O


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## Sir Osisofliver (2 October 2008)

Nyden said:


> Wow .. just, wow
> 
> You postulate that by the time things look rosy; a bull market will already have come and gone? That's just a stupid thing to say, sorry. Many of the big moves up may have been missed, but to say the top of the cycle will already be reached ... Buying for fear of missing the _big move_ is just knife catching.




Nyden,

Don't be sorry, I know that tone is somewhat difficult to ascertain over the internet, so tell me, do you think the second part of my post was...

a) Serious, dead serious. As serious as death and taxes. or
b) Not that serious, but an example of what I've personally witnessed some silly investors do in the past. or
c) Not in any way serious and somewhat of a joke as if to say...just wait until I've finished buying so I can get everything I want at a low price before you push the price back up.

Sir O


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## Nyden (2 October 2008)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> Nyden,
> 
> Don't be sorry, I know that tone is somewhat difficult to ascertain over the internet, so tell me, do you think the second part of my post was...
> 
> ...




Well, what I took from your post was that you believe people need to start buying whilst things look bad; else they'll miss the boat. This can sometimes be true (buy in gloom ...), but surely the severity of this bear market warrants a little bit more prudence - and perhaps waiting for things to become rosier is the way to go here.

I took it as fairly serious; but then again I also read a fair bit of anxiety from your words - perhaps about the short to medium term directions?


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## CAB SAV (2 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Is anyone ready to start buying in the current market conditions? Or do you see it as doom and gloom?
> 
> DISCUSSION ONLY.




Can't hear the fat lady singing yet. Acually, she's not even on the stage IMO.
The yanks/world are waiting on the bailout and dismissing all the other very poor economic indicators. The bailout would need to be doubled to have half a chance of being effective. The deficit between morgages & home values in the states is between $5-6 trillion and growing rapidly, $700bill isn't enough.  Unemployment is rising, forclosures rising, manufacturing falling, vehicle sales falling,consumer spending falling. This data recently has made no impact on the market with all focus on the magic bullet bailout.
Watch this space


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## Julia (2 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Why not Julia?



Because I am focused on preserving capital, given I'm not too far away from needing to draw an income from my SMSF which has been in cash since January except for a couple of companies which I let run until the rising SP began to fall.

There is no real underlying confidence at present.  And neither should there be given all the problems which won't be solved by this current bailout plan.

I'm quite happy to forgo some initial gains when a recovery (as opposed to the current rallies)  does occur.


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## Sir Osisofliver (2 October 2008)

Nyden said:


> Well, what I took from your post was that you believe people need to start buying whilst things look bad; else they'll miss the boat. This can sometimes be true (buy in gloom ...), but surely the severity of this bear market warrants a little bit more prudence - and perhaps waiting for things to become rosier is the way to go here.
> 
> I took it as fairly serious; but then again I also read a fair bit of anxiety from your words - perhaps about the short to medium term directions?




Nyden,

Anxiety? No I'm that guy from the MAD comics. *Every Bear market is severe*. you think that Black Monday was pitiful, that '87 was a barrel of laughs, that the Asian currency crisis was a picnic, that the dotcom bubble is barely worth mentioning??

Not to sound like some kind of Grandpa but history repeats itself, and those that recognise the inherent opportunities when others just see doom and gloom are the ones who will ultimately profit. Rene' Rivkin credits the '87 crash to making him a damn fortune. (That and an extremely arsy set of circumstances. He was having brain surgery and had removed his entire holdings from the market a few weeks before the crash. The monday opening he turned up at the Sydney exchange with his head still wrapped in bandages and was the only bloody person buying.)

What I _know_ is that after EVERY negative event in the market going back a very long period of time....there are some very attractive gains that are available from the bottom of the cycle back to the previous highs.  Are you saying you think our market will NEVER return to 6800??  

If you look somewhere around here in one of the newbie investment plan threads, you will find a description of what it is I am doing for long-term investment portfolio construction. I think it's "prudent"...tell me what you think.

Sir O


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## It's Snake Pliskin (2 October 2008)

Julia said:


> Because I am focused on preserving capital, given I'm not too far away from needing to draw an income from my SMSF which has been in cash since January except for a couple of companies which I let run until the rising SP began to fall.
> 
> *There is no real underlying confidence at present*.  *And neither should there be *given all the problems which won't be solved by this current bailout plan.
> 
> I'm quite happy to forgo some initial gains when a recovery (as opposed to the current rallies)  does occur.



Thanks Julia. 

Regarding the recovery versus the rallies scenario how do you analyse that? And how can you be sure that you are not going to be in cash for quite some time vs being in and out of the rallies etc.

As to the point in green strange things happen, and logic can go out the door in the markets as you probably know. Not to say I disagree with you.

Cheers..


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## It's Snake Pliskin (2 October 2008)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> 1) company officer = managing director, company secretary, directors, investor relations, board members etc etc
> 
> 2) typo I did not mean to separate a pair...but instead be overcome by a sense of futility or hopelessness.
> 
> ...




Thanks for the info. I thought dispair might be stopping a pair trade or something.

I make typos all the time but didn't know what a company officer was


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## Julia (2 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Thanks Julia.
> 
> Regarding the recovery versus the rallies scenario how do you analyse that? And how can you be sure that you are not going to be in cash for quite some time vs being in and out of the rallies etc.



Snake, I have neither the interest nor the temperament to be a short term trader.  Therefore I will not be in and out of any short term rallies.
I don't think it's rocket science to consider that, given the underlying mess which no rescue plan is going to change in a hurry, a global recession is fairly likely.   Re being in cash for quite some time, that's fine with me.  Even if interest rates were to halve I could still live more than comfortably off the interest for the rest of my life.

I'm not interested in swapping a low level of anxiety for a few thousand dollars which might be derived from some of the short rallies which will undoubtedly continue to happen.

Hope all that's OK with you.


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## golfmos123 (2 October 2008)

I think this argument is all about perspective and all about where you are currently sitting in your financial life.

Julia - you are dead correct with respect to your situation.  No need to chase things if you are content with returns in cash and you are waiting for better signs of recovery.

Snake - you are dead correct with respect to your situation.  You want to maximise returns and are prepared to handle further risk than others.

I don't think this is about right and wrong - it's about appetite for risk and about how much you really need the cash right now.

Feel free to shoot me......


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## It's Snake Pliskin (3 October 2008)

Julia said:


> Snake, I have neither the interest nor the temperament to be a short term trader.  Therefore I will not be in and out of any short term rallies.
> I don't think it's rocket science to consider that, given the underlying mess which no rescue plan is going to change in a hurry, a global recession is fairly likely.   Re being in cash for quite some time, that's fine with me.  Even if interest rates were to halve I could still live more than comfortably off the interest for the rest of my life.
> 
> I'm not interested in swapping a low level of anxiety for a few thousand dollars which might be derived from some of the short rallies which will undoubtedly continue to happen.
> ...




Julia, I am sure most people who could be in your situation would be more than happy. 

Cheers..


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## It's Snake Pliskin (3 October 2008)

golfmos123 said:


> I think this argument is all about perspective and all about where you are currently sitting in your financial life.
> 
> Julia - you are dead correct with respect to your situation.  No need to chase things if you are content with returns in cash and you are waiting for better signs of recovery.
> 
> ...




Golfmos, there is no argument just discussion. 

I like the remarks regarding two different situations - a balanced view.


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## deadset (3 October 2008)

I'm happy to be more cautious this last week and for the next week.

I've gone from 20% cash to 80% cash in the last week, whereas normally I'd be all in expecting a gain from the bailout.  I missed the rise on Tuesday so probably should have been more aggressive buying on Monday.  I did 3 small buys, which is good for me, as I normally like to limit myself to one trade a day.  

So even with a bailout, I think it'll take some time (3 months at least) before there is more positive news and flow on effects.

Basically, its not just financials at the moment, the commodities and oil are under pressure too which is making me hessitant right now as I like investing in those as well.  So weighing up the best and worst cases, I just figured I'd keep alot of cash right now and simply buy in moderately when you spot a relative bargain, except I find myself ditching them just as quickly if they do rise.  I've got some ground to make up as I lost a fair bit on the banks about 2 months ago.

Interesting week, that's for sure.  Next week should be even more interesting.

I'm glad I'm not working right now, its been exciting this week to watch.  I hope you understand, its not the sort of thing I can normally talk about to most people I know, its usually under the hat.


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## AnDy62 (6 October 2008)

"The night is darkest before dawn" as they say...

I haven't been buying madly, just dribbling some funds in, whilst keeping a decent portion in cash. The wonders of dollar cost averaging. I've been steering clear of certain sectors, and targetting solid, oversold stocks with low debt and good fundamentals. Whilst I'm aware the market may well go lower, I don't want to miss part of that ride back up, and history shows a lot of people do!


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## doogie_goes_off (6 October 2008)

I have also been targetting oversold stocks with low debt and good fundamentals, can't beat the opportunity.


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## Aussiejeff (6 October 2008)

doogie_goes_off said:


> I have also been targetting oversold stocks with low debt and good fundamentals, can't beat the opportunity.




There were lots of folks saying that when Centro was at 80 cents..... I hope for your sake you chose well.

Bit hard to tell where the "oversold" mark really kicks in ATM. What if you buy now and all your picks drop another 30-40%? They will still be oversold, with "good" fundamentals...

Good luck is all I can offer.


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## Nyden (6 October 2008)

doogie_goes_off said:


> can't beat the opportunity.




Well, to be fair - you certainly can 

This "opportunity" might just be beaten two-fold in the coming weeks ... months ... dare I say, years?


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