# Yen a 'safe' currency



## 1080p (14 November 2008)

Can anyone explain why the Yen is perceived as a 'safe' currency for panicked investors to flock to?

The Japanese seem to gorge themselves on US debt and export a lot of big ticket products which aren't exactly flying off the shelves these days...


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## Indie (14 November 2008)

It is a bonafide _hard currency_. 

It is particularly good in a global deleveraging environment such as we are experiencing now because so many loans for foreign investments are taken out in the low interest Yen for foreign investment. In particular, vs higher yielding but riskier hard currencies like the AUD then Yen should do very well as leverage is unwound and AUD are sold off to pay down Yen loans. Yen is in very high demand right now for this reason more than anything IMO.


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## arco (14 November 2008)

*Indie*

My charts for  *Aud.Yen* go back to 1983 and the current price is at a low only seen once before in that period (circa 2000/2001)
*
Do you feel that it can still go lower?*

*Usd.Yen *currently @ 96.86 has a bit further to go to reach the low of 1995 (79.75). Chart period covered from 1978.

rgds - arco


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## Indie (15 November 2008)

Arco,

Many good judges including Marc Faber are saying the long term target is USD/YEN .80 so I tend to agree. All agree that the YEN is the cheapest hard currency around right now, by historical standards. However, it's all about timing. But I would expect to see .90 again before the end of the year. Which would mean AUD at sub .55 I would imagine. As long as equities continue to perform poorly, the YEN should continue to strengthen. I think this is a certainty. We may get a decent spike up in equities soon, but that to me is just another buying opportunity for YEN.


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## MrBurns (15 November 2008)

Indie said:


> Arco,
> 
> Many good judges including Marc Faber are saying the long term target is USD/YEN .80 so I tend to agree. All agree that the YEN is the cheapest hard currency around right now, by historical standards. However, it's all about timing. But I would expect to see .90 again before the end of the year. Which would mean AUD at sub .55 I would imagine. As long as equities continue to perform poorly, the YEN should continue to strengthen. I think this is a certainty. We may get a decent spike up in equities soon, but that to me is just another buying opportunity for YEN.





How do you actually buy Yen ? 
Just ask the bank to transfer a part of your funds held with them ????


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## nunthewiser (15 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> How do you actually buy Yen ?
> Just ask the bank to transfer a part of your funds held with them ????




http://www.hsbc.com.au/1/2/personal/savings/multi-currency

earn intrest in account in any currency also 

hope this helps


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## MrBurns (15 November 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> http://www.hsbc.com.au/1/2/personal/savings/multi-currency
> 
> earn intrest in account in any currency also
> 
> hope this helps




Yes thank you


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## nunthewiser (15 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Yes thank you




covered under the govvy gurantee also UNSURE if so in foreighn currency 

might pay to look into that bit


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## MrBurns (15 November 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> covered under the govvy gurantee also UNSURE if so in foreighn currency
> 
> might pay to look into that bit




Good thinking, I have to get the NAB to look at it, I'm with them.
Thanks again


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## Naked shorts (17 November 2008)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/17/2422037.htm



> Japan says its economic situation will worsen further, after today's confirmation the nation is in a recession.
> 
> The world's second largest economy recorded a second quarter of economic contraction.
> 
> ...




This makes me a little bit unsure your bullishness nun, whats your take?


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## nunthewiser (17 November 2008)

Naked shorts said:


> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/17/2422037.htm
> 
> 
> 
> This makes me a little bit unsure your bullishness nun, whats your take?




how long do u expect the usd to remain at this strength for ?

many of my reasons for me looking towards japan are dotted all over this forum . search my posts

ive spent all day explaining my thoughts in the chat facility allso

i am not just looking at currency


anyways...............


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## Stormin_Norman (30 December 2008)

Indie said:


> It is a bonafide _hard currency_.
> 
> It is particularly good in a global deleveraging environment such as we are experiencing now because so many loans for foreign investments are taken out in the low interest Yen for foreign investment. In particular, vs higher yielding but riskier hard currencies like the AUD then Yen should do very well as leverage is unwound and AUD are sold off to pay down Yen loans. Yen is in very high demand right now for this reason more than anything IMO.




i agree. and since your post has proven to be correct.


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