# Where are the GOLD BUGS?



## MARKETWAVES (13 May 2005)

TO  MODERATOR 

I would like to keep this as a seperate thread...  please do not put with all  the other Gold posts, it is cluttered in there... after  6  0  7  chart posts in  one thread... a post after that seems to get buried ...I dont want my posts  to be buried in on a thread with all these other posts.
I would prefer to keep separate....  thank you.  

GOLD BUGS .....

GOLD .... WHERE IT IS REALLY HEADED?! 

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LOOK HERE ... LOOK HERE //// 

SO MUCH TALK ABOUT GOLD ........ WELL ,THIS POST WILL CONTAIN 2 CHARTS LONGER TERM

HERE IS SOMETHING PROFOUND TO LOOK AT .....

IF YOU HAVE ANY UNDERSTANDING OF FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LINES THIS CHART WILL MAKE SENSE TO YOU .........

50 % RETRACEMENT REPRESENTS AN EQUILIBRIUM ....

WHAT IS THIS CHART TELLING ME ? IT SIMPLE.........
ALL THE EQUITY MARKETS IN THE WORLD ARE GOING TO HAVE A PROBLEM GOING FORWARD ........


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## Joe Blow (13 May 2005)

*Re: Where are the GOLD BUGS ?*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> i  would  like  to  keep this  as  a  seperate  thread  ,,  please  do  not  put  with  all  the  other  Gold  posts,  it  is  cluttered in  there...




Okay, I will allow this as a separate thread.

I like your charts a great deal MW, just try and keep everything on the one topic to a single thread. I'm making an effort to keep things neat and tidy around here. 

Trust me, when people are interested, they WILL follow a thread through to the last post. Also, by clicking this button '
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





' you will immediately be taken to the last post of any thread. You don't have to click through every page to get to the end.



P.S. Just one last request: Could you use some lower case in your posts. All caps is a little disconcerting. Thanks!


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## MARKETWAVES (18 May 2005)

*GOLD & the Elliot Wave ...wave counts ( long term )*

Possible  wave  counts on  GOLD ....


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## Knobby22 (18 May 2005)

*Re: Where are the GOLD BUGS ?*

Not sure how you can relate the equity market to Gold so directly.

In the modern economy, gold is just a commodity like silver and platinum, subject to supply and demand.
The days when it acted to support currencies ect. have long gone.

The reason there are so few gold bugs is that they have all gone broke or realised that gold has become another precious metal.

I am predicting gold to go up over the long term as the European banks have sold much of their horde and supply should tighten.


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## bvbfan (19 May 2005)

*Re: Where are the GOLD BUGS ?*



			
				Knobby22 said:
			
		

> The reason there are so few gold bugs is that they have all gone broke or realised that gold has become another precious metal.
> 
> I am predicting gold to go up over the long term as the European banks have sold much of their horde and supply should tighten.




Perhaps the reason is that they have moved geographic regions also?
The wealth is being redistributed into regions where gold has always been a primary vehicle for saving


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## Smurf1976 (19 May 2005)

*Re: Where are the GOLD BUGS ?*



			
				Knobby22 said:
			
		

> The days when it acted to support currencies ect. have long gone.



Historically, fiat (unbacked) currencies have always failed. The US Dollar has lost most of its value already. I think it's a bit early to say that gold is finished in view of history.


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## DTM (19 May 2005)

*Re: Where are the GOLD BUGS ?*

Nice penant formed on that last chart and subsequently failed to go up giving us the wave 5 down.  But in failing, it's given it more strength to turn upwards.  

I see this pattern a lot on intraday trading patterns.


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## rederob (27 November 2019)

Joe gave this thread its own life nearly 15 years ago, and @MARKETWAVES then disappeared.



Above is the hourly chart for the past month.
Trend is clearly downwards, although recent weeks have meandered.
I have been a goldbug for over 20 years, and wish I had bought physical back then as gold mining equities are best for trading.  
Anyway, as the search function is littered with "gold" threads that I don't want to post in, I just lobbed this one here.
As Joe noted above, when the tide comes in, lots of boats are floated and many jump aboard.  Just now the tide is ebbing and flowing a bit erratically, so even though I am optimistic for gold in 2020 it's just what I reckon will happen and has no value outside of that.


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## rederob (1 December 2020)

Debug


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## rederob (20 December 2020)

On track?


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## Garpal Gumnut (20 December 2020)

rederob said:


> On track?



Pls enable chart layout sharing/publish. Access denied for me.

gg


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## rederob (20 December 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Pls enable chart layout sharing/publish. Access denied for me.
> 
> gg



⚠


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## Dona Ferentes (20 December 2020)




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## Austwide (20 December 2020)

I get the same screen too


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## rederob (20 December 2020)

Austwide said:


> I get the same screen too



The link was enabled in post #12.


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## wayneL (20 December 2020)

Screenshot is the best way


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## Garpal Gumnut (20 December 2020)

rederob said:


> ⚠



The appropriate response is to rage at the machine.

gg


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## Trav. (21 December 2020)

I am excited about the gold price at the moment. as I am holding EVN, NCM and NST at the moment and looking forward to a SP increase if gold can sustain the run.

Broke $1900 earlier and still look good.


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## Bill M (22 December 2020)

Wow look at those earlier comments back in 2005 and then wind forward to 2020 and what a ripper of an investment gold has turned out to be. It was around $570 AUD back then and right now it's sitting at around $2,740 AUD. Up around 450%, not a bad effort at all.

https://goldprice.org/gold-price-charts/20-year-gold-price-history-in-australian-dollars-per-ounce


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## Trav. (22 December 2020)

looks like gold had a very volatile day, and the break of $1900 did not last long.


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## Trav. (23 December 2020)

Note to Self...

DO NOT POST ON GOLD THREADS


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## rederob (23 December 2020)

Trav. said:


> Note to Self...
> 
> DO NOT POST ON GOLD THREADS



Patience is gold's virtue @Trav.
This chart uses the same pattern points I posted on 30 November, so everything since has been a relatively good fit:


Just remember that prior to 2020 gold had only closed higher than its present price on 4 days (back in 2011).
Apart from the usual speculation, what factors do you believe will drive down POG?
Counter that thought with the factors that lead to POGs long term rise.
Just to prove that patience is needed, my comments in this linked chart were made on 15 May, and I have just updated it with current trend channels.  On the more bullish trend $2500 is in reach during late 2021.  Steady as she goes will max out at $2300 next year.
Given that the bull run to 2011's peak was across 5 years and some $1400, I reckon that we have a good 3 more years ahead of us.


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## Trav. (23 December 2020)

@rederob thanks mate for you post and charts. 

Patience is something that I have to work on and zooming out to take in the bigger picture definitely puts things into perspective.


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## rederob (23 December 2020)

The "linked chart" for post #22 above looks like this:



Apologies for bad link earlier but logged-in users don't get an error message when the ASF link fails.


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## Balder (24 December 2020)

Property prices getting back to the 90’s in Gold. How many will cash in for property if it goes below 300 ounces?


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## rederob (5 January 2021)

The chart below is a further update to my previous posts and shows that we remain on track to head beyond $2000 again:



I place zero confidence on my Elliott Wave count as I have no background other than being a layme practitioner.
Fortunately there are other indicators that provide a better guide, so we know that today POG is in overbought territory and statistically needs to either consolidate or retrace a little before resuming its current uptrend.  Next hurdle will be at $1965 before the big jump at $2075.

While 2020 was a fantastic year for gold, I cannot see it as being anything but "typical" for the time being.
In keeping with the outlandish forecasts I was making 15 years ago, I believe we are on our way to $3000.  I'm not sure that's high enough to be called a gold bug in the present environment, so I am happy to just be an *enthusiast *this year.


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## rederob (9 January 2021)

In the chart below I went back a few years to see what happens when the TSI gap exceeds 25 points.  But the TSI gap seldom gets to 20 points, and when that happens there is always a snap-back (see "Oversold Pivot).
So if trends repeat, then the earlier week high will be soon recovered:



			https://www.tradingview.com/x/lWVG9nXA/


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## Trav. (9 January 2021)

I am only new to watching the XAUUSD and I have probably got the TA wrong 100% of the time so far. 

There is so much written about gold on social media that it can easily influence you in the way that you view a chart.

I am hoping for a turn around but currently only hold 1 gold stock which is more luck than good planning.

Weekly chart below for reference but as stated above I am not sure what it will do from here.


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## Cam019 (9 January 2021)

Trav. said:


> I am only new to watching the XAUUSD and I have probably got the TA wrong 100% of the time so far.
> 
> There is so much written about gold on social media that it can easily influence you in the way that you view a chart.
> 
> ...



Don't worry @Trav., no one has any real idea where it will go. What I like to use is simple market structure. You can use it on any time frame so I'll just quickly type up what I can see. This is just one of many potential scenarios.

*XAU/USD Daily Chart*


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## Joules MM1 (9 January 2021)

was a good day, played out as per: https://www.tradingview.com/x/70lzSNQC/


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## rederob (14 January 2021)

The bigger picture:


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## finicky (14 January 2021)

Gee only $3,000, rats


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## rederob (14 January 2021)

finicky said:


> Gee only $3,000, rats



POG ran strong for 2 years after the GFC.
Right now, globally, no economies are at "normal" levels of operation, and to get there is going to require significant borrowing/debt. 
Financing debt at national levels is not the issue, but repaying it will require low or no, or even negative, interest rates.
If you cannot effectively guarantee the value of money via fiat currencies then something more tangible, like gold, should increase in demand.
Some have ventured that money is flowing into cryptocurrencies, and may well be right.  I am too stupid to see how a pattern of electrons (worth billions) that could disappear through non-nuclear electromagnetic pulses or solar flares, or just from losing the "key," is a good idea, long term.


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## rederob (24 January 2021)

A perspective on the Gold Bugs index is below:


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## rederob (2 February 2021)

The chart has to break up or down!


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## rederob (4 February 2021)

Hard to remain bullish!


Being in for the long haul, I have become used to these pullbacks, so won't be jumping ship for a good while.
What I have found interesting is that the shine did not rub off that badly on the big gold producers, so on resumption on my presumptive gold bull market, these stock should lift nicely.


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## gartley (4 February 2021)

rederob said:


> Hard to remain bullish!
> View attachment 119547
> 
> Being in for the long haul, I have become used to these pullbacks, so won't be jumping ship for a good while.
> What I have found interesting is that the shine did not rub off that badly on the big gold producers, so on resumption on my presumptive gold bull market, these stock should lift nicely.



Oddly enough I have done much better out of the decline then I did from the  advance in July/August but hopefully we get another crack at higher prices later in the year.
For now though looks like USD will rally


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## frugal.rock (5 February 2021)

Here we go, it's going like a bush wallaby and dropping to $1600


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## Trav. (5 February 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> dropping to $1600



Big call mate, hopefully just a little dip to to ~$1750 but will be interesting to watch on the sidelines.


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## rederob (5 February 2021)

For the @gartley's of the world who actively trade the trend, POG's present fall from grace is not a concern - on the contrary, as he noted.
For me, making fewer than a trade each month, the more probable longer term outcome is what I look for.
In that regard, here's a point from the chart below:



Were gold to follow a similar path to the post-GFC collapse, then POG hits $1380 before tripling its price 2 years later.  Right now it's hard to see POG over $4000 in 2023/24 and it's certainly not where I would place it.
But never expect markets to act rationally... after all, this is GOLD!

(For fibbonacci lovers, POG's next dip would be to around $1640 [21% decline])


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## rederob (6 February 2021)

Last 14 years of gold is charted below:



As is clearly seen, the initial bull market not only had a steeper trajectory for both its longer term and then post-GFC runs north than the present bull market, but also traded within narrower boundaries.  It suggests to me a longer and more sustainable trend, and it starts from a significantly higher base.
Ever the optimist!


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## rederob (9 February 2021)

The trend envelope remains intact:



Downside weakness has prevailed, but no wholesale collapse in price.
Crystal balls need polishing.


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## rederob (23 February 2021)

Have dusted off the crystal and a clearer picture is emerging:


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## rederob (1 March 2021)

We can run but we cannot hide .
Support got trashed on Friday as bond sales knocked down all commodities.
Those sellers now need somewhere to reinvest.
What looks safe?
Gold has a silver lining!
Just need to find out where it is... maybe, just maybe, coming to a forum near you... soon.


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## rederob (5 April 2021)

Gold is still searching for "support".
Maybe it was delivered on Good Friday!
Anyway, the trends remain mixed for now:


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## rederob (31 May 2021)

This index has a lot of headroom:


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## rederob (30 September 2021)

There is no doubt that POG in $USD has been trashed recently, so should we be alarmed?
Maybe the $AUD chart gives us a reason not to be:


Although POG cannot defy gravity, it appears the $USD can.
What is remarkable here is that the $USD is strengthening against its own looming debt ceiling crisis.


Although markets have irrational tendencies, they also pivot around balance points.  So it's improbable that the dollar can remain stronger for longer unless other global currencies weaken concurrently.


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## peter2 (30 September 2021)

This gold bug is dead. I'm not buying any gold/ silver stocks for a long time. I'm not saying never.


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## Sean K (30 September 2021)

peter2 said:


> View attachment 130850
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Might see this bug on it's feet once the handle finishes and $1900 is broken. Target more like $2700 perhaps.


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## KevinBB (30 September 2021)

This chart tells a different story. December 21 futures, 1 year, weekly bars, USD.

KH


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## Sean K (30 September 2021)

KevinBB said:


> This chart tells a different story. December 21 futures, 1 year, weekly bars, USD.
> 
> KH
> 
> View attachment 130857




Isn't that the handle part, Kev?


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## KevinBB (30 September 2021)

Sorry, I'm not sure what "cup and handle" is, I'll have to look it up.

I'm not sure what the price of gold will do, however I just see a succession of down bars, heading towards that pretty solid low that has been tested three times already. It will be interesting to see what happens if that low is tested again in the next couple of weeks. Bounce or break. Odds are probably on the bounce, but a break wouldn't surprise me.

Edit: The two charts show that many interpretations can come from using TA on the same instrument in different timeframes.

KH


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## Sean K (30 September 2021)

KevinBB said:


> Sorry, I'm not sure what "cup and handle" is, I'll have to look it up.
> 
> I'm not sure what the price of gold will do, however I just see a succession of down bars, heading towards that pretty solid low that has been tested three times already. It will be interesting to see what happens if that low is tested again in the next couple of weeks. Bounce or break. Odds are probably on the bounce, but a break wouldn't surprise me.
> 
> ...




Yes, the last year looks crap. 

Cup and handle is as the name suggests. I half moon round shaped cup with two lips and the handle is a consolidation bit on the right side forming a handle looking thing. The price target is the depth of the cup from breakout to the upside. 









						What Is a Cup and Handle Pattern?
					

A cup and handle is a bullish technical price pattern that appears in the shape of a handled cup on a price chart.




					www.investopedia.com


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## KevinBB (30 September 2021)

@kennas Thanks for the description.

So, the price target was 1740 or so, with a bit of sideways movement between 1740 and 1940 or so? The $99 question is where does it go from there?

I'm a bit of a longer term trend follower with L plates, so for me the odds favour a continuation of the down bars. But ... I've been wrong many times before.

KH


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## Tyre Kicker (30 September 2021)

US dollar will run out of puff at some stage - surely can't keep printing trillions upon trillion upon trillions and have it any other way.

Probably a good opportunity to accumulate more solid gold stocks over the coming months.

I sure will be.


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## divs4ever (30 September 2021)

KevinBB said:


> @kennas Thanks for the description.
> 
> So, the price target was 1740 or so, with a bit of sideways movement between 1740 and 1940 or so? The $99 question is where does it go from there?
> 
> ...



 if  trading futures contracts  the 'gold price' is important 

 if buying gold stocks , the local currency AND the 'gold price ' is important ( your gold stock MIGHT be making extra profits despite the gold price sliding  because the currency is weakening as well ) also important for gold stocks are hedging contracts , if any ( guaranteed sale at an agreed price )  can be a mixed outcome but a nice safety net for a producer with outstanding debt 

 now if buying the physical ( and keeping it at home )  the PREMIUM + the spot gold  price is important , assuming your dealer has any to sell 

good luck 

 where is it going ... gold is an inert , lifeless metal  , it is the manipulated , and counterfeited currencies that move , the currencies might devalue , reset ,  become worthless , but gold is just gold  and as long as someone will buy it , someone will dig more up


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## divs4ever (30 September 2021)

Tyre Kicker said:


> US dollar will run out of puff at some stage - surely can't keep printing trillions upon trillion upon trillions and have it any other way.
> 
> Probably a good opportunity to accumulate more solid gold stocks over the coming months.
> 
> I sure will be.



 yes have been patiently nibbling at several gold producers  , myself  ( but NOT going into debt to buy them )


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## Sean K (30 September 2021)

KevinBB said:


> @kennas Thanks for the description.
> 
> So, the price target was 1740 or so, with a bit of sideways movement between 1740 and 1940 or so? The $99 question is where does it go from there?
> 
> ...




In the C&H scenario POG could retrace as much as 50% from the lip of the cup before heading north again. The upward price target on resuming the move up is about $2700. That's an ideal C&H world generalisation, nothing works out for sure, just a probability. It's a very long term C&H too which is rare and even if it does eventuate there'll likely be lots of zigs and zags in there on the way back up. A lot of peeps think TA is black magic too so take it all with a grain of salt.


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## Craton (30 September 2021)

Au as part of a diversified asset class portfolio, I have a very small % of that folio in both Au stocks and physical (mainly coins) in the mix.


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## finicky (30 September 2021)

After @kennas:






David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·Replying to
@okmikeavon

"Couldn't agree more. The gold picture is very bullish yet investor sentiment is about as bearish as it can get. Great set-up. Should see gold at $2500 in coming months. Likely coincides with a weak dollar & accelerating inflation."

Depends who you listen to. Northstar on twitter says there's a chance gold's already heading into a cycle low due in 2024 but admits the possibility of a rally first. Jordan Roy-Byrne recently said he thinks a breakout is a year or two out. Course, they are talking in USD - I've been caught out before thinking in USD and delaying my entry into AUD gold companies at much cost.

I've been buying SSR and HRZ and watching the chart of NST for a possible add.


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## KevinBB (1 October 2021)

KevinBB said:


> I'm a bit of a longer term trend follower with L plates, so for me the odds favour a continuation of the down bars. But ... I've been wrong many times before.




That's the last time I try to pick price direction. How wrong can one be?

KH


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## divs4ever (1 October 2021)

wrong , but for how long ??

minutes , hours , maybe days 

 isn't there an Asian holiday due soon ( meaning those Westerners will have less competition )

 cheers


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## DannyB0000 (1 October 2021)

KevinBB said:


> That's the last time I try to pick price direction. How wrong can one be?
> 
> KH
> View attachment 130891



Gold up 2% in overnight trade.  Should be a good day for goldies today


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## rederob (4 October 2021)

It has taken 18 months for global markets to work out that when most Central Banks concurrently prop up their economies then "bubbles" occur, and that these will ultimately burst.
We are entering a phase where inflation is likely to be accompanied by industrial stagnation and reduced purchasing power - stagflation. 
For the time being employment numbers seem to be staving off the inevitable.  
But in the USA there is pressure on Congress to keep raising the debt ceiling, while Biden is struggling to get his 3 trillion stimulus package through.  
These uncertainties see gold - which remains unchanged as gold no matter where you are - as a vehicle that can ride through the turmoil. The big question is whether cryptocurrencies can be seen by investors in the same light.
We gold bulls are always hopeful, but it's based on why gold has performed well in the past.
Those lessons should begin to play out again.
If they don't, then the paradigm is broken.


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## Tyre Kicker (4 October 2021)

Totally agree rederob.

And the cryptos no doubt have stolen the investor dollars that would have already flowed to gold.

At some point, the inflation gauge may get totally out of control.


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## Tyre Kicker (4 October 2021)

As far as the Cryptos go…









						Clock is ticking: the walls are closing in on the $2.8tr crypto market
					

Around the world regulators and governments are accelerating their efforts to regulate crypto assets and displace them with digital currencies of their own.




					www.smh.com.au


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