# Simulated Trades and Analysis



## pavilion103 (12 February 2012)

I've started a thread for people to post any trades, either trades they are looking to take or the trade management of existing trades. 

I will be posting up some of my own in the coming weeks. My own trading analysis will largely involve VSA principles.


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## pavilion103 (16 February 2012)

It would be good to get people's thoughts on this one. 

This is one I already entered on 2/2/12 for a 2R profit. My analysis for this trade is on the chart. 

I'm thinking of a buy-stop just above the high of the 15/2 bar and a stop loss just below the high of the high volume bar of 2/2. 
Enter: $0.066
Stop: $0.059

Chart 1 = Short Term Chart

It doesn't look like there is any huge climactic action to end this trend. 




Chart 2 = Medium Term Chart




Chart 3 = Weekly Chart

Is it best to wait for the week or more bars to play out to see if it finds support at the low of that ultra high volume bar?


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## tech/a (16 February 2012)

I don't see any reason to enter yet.
Other than a common bottom on the last two bars.
The very high volume bars range should act as support.
So would be looking for entries in that price range 
I do agree this is likely to continue


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## pavilion103 (16 February 2012)

Here is another one. RRL.

I only included the one chart for this one to save some time. 

Enter: 4.19 (above high of 14/2)
Stop: $3.99 (below high of 27/1 - high volume bar)


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## pavilion103 (16 February 2012)

This isn't a new one, but wondering who got a piece of this?  This was on my watch list at the time but did not enter. Potential 10R profit depending on where the stops were placed. Made a lot of sense from a technical point of view. 




This shows a close up around the period when it broke.


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## Billyb (16 February 2012)

pavilion103 said:


> Here is another one. RRL.
> 
> I only included the one chart for this one to save some time.
> 
> ...




Looks good to me. I would have done something similar except I would have used the low of the last bar as my stop but it works at at pretty much the same value as your VSA based stop anyway.


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2012)

COH

Looks like no supply into a very significant ultra high volume area. I'm not sure if this is ready to move yet, but looks like a good medium term one which is headed up.









WEEKLY


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2012)

AZH

Enter: 0.93
Stop:  0.855


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## tech/a (27 February 2012)

pavilion103 said:


> COH
> 
> Looks like no supply into a very significant ultra high volume area. I'm not sure if this is ready to move yet, but looks like a good medium term one which is headed up.
> 
> ...




Resisting at the gap what is that saying?
High volume which is at the high of each
Test what is that saying?


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## Boggo (27 February 2012)

A half dozen from tonights data where I wouldn't mind seeing you guys apply a bit of VSA analysis to.

BND - CCU - GBG - HGO - PEK - NFE.


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> Resisting at the gap what is that saying?
> High volume which is at the high of each
> Test what is that saying?




Are you thinking that it looks like it is struggling to go higher with the two highest volume bars visible in the first chart being selling? That is my main concern. 
It certainly doesn't look like a clear break above that gap with clear consolidation/pullback on no supply. But it does look like it is in an uptrend. The last few bars look strong. 
Would you wait for a break above the control bar on 20 December before looking to possibly enter?


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2012)

I'm not pro but I'll give it a crack. Tech can help me out if he sees any glaring mistakes (or can add further comments).

BND

Daily Chart



Weekly Chart


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2012)

CCU

Daily Chart



Weekly Chart


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2012)

HGO


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2012)

NFE


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2012)

Tech, if you get a moment to look over the charts could you possibly give me a yay or nay for each of them. Maybe point to anything that I've overlooked. 
Thanks mate,
Matt


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## tech/a (27 February 2012)

pavilion103 said:


> Are you thinking that it looks like it is struggling to go higher with the two highest volume bars visible in the first chart being selling? That is my main concern.
> It certainly doesn't look like a clear break above that gap with clear consolidation/pullback on no supply. But it does look like it is in an uptrend. The last few bars look strong.
> Would you wait for a break above the control bar on 20 December before looking to possibly enter?




Yes pretty good
The higher lows and sell off volume at highs is a longer term sign that buyers are likely to win in the end
That gap though is going to take some filling.
My feeling is that supply will be exhausted---- eventually ---- and the gap closed quickly.but more evidence needed.

BND
Volume now seems to be absorbing as it is holding up well
(weekly chart) could be a while.

CCU
Lots of resistance ahead


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## Boggo (27 February 2012)

Thanks Matt - appreciate that.
It creates a whole new view of breakouts/trend reversal/continuation etc.

I need to set aside some time to get more aquainted with this approach.


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2012)

Boggo said:


> Thanks Matt - appreciate that.
> It creates a whole new view of breakouts/trend reversal/continuation etc.
> 
> I need to set aside some time to get more aquainted with this approach.




No worries. I didn't do GBG and PEK because I didn't have enough time and these two are already on my watchlist so I thought I would acquaint myself with a few of the others 

Yes VSA makes a lot of sense as a trading approach. I am much indebted to Tech for his support and pointing me in the right direction. I'm up to just over 1,000 hours of study and counting!!!


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## Boggo (27 February 2012)

pavilion103 said:


> I'm up to just over 1,000 hours of study and counting!!!




Yes, I know what you mean, I need a few more hours in a day.

Have you noticed that the harder you work at it the luckier you get


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2012)

Boggo said:


> Yes, I know what you mean, I need a few more hours in a day.
> 
> Have you noticed that the harder you work at it the luckier you get




Tell me about it! I come home from work and try to set aside a solid 3 hours a few nights a week. Even at work I'm on the forums looking at stuff! 
I started with a 5 year rough plan. Working towards that! Slowly slowly.


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## pavilion103 (28 February 2012)

I have a few more. Would  love some feedback on these also. 

STX - note there IS resistance further to the left of the chart back in July/Aug 2011. This volume, however is not close to the magnitude of the recent ultra high volume bar. 

I'm finding difficulty working out where to place the entry/stop to get a suitable R:R and maximise my potential return. 





BRM - volume has built up consistently. It has pushed through a high volume marker on significant ultra high volume. Today is a no supply bar. Maybe it could be wise to wait this one out just a little longer. If I was to enter now I'd have a buy-stop above the high of today/yesterday.




MAH - This one has managed to push higher and now looks like a small consolidation on decreasing volume, possibly pausing in preparation for another move. No overhead resistance. I'm not sure if that reversal/upthrust at the top is supposed to scare me off though.


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## Trembling Hand (28 February 2012)

pavilion103 said:


> I'm finding difficulty working out where to place the entry/stop to get a suitable R:R and maximise my potential return.




A quick scroll up to most of your other charts show you are picking patterns where the stocks are approaching previous resistance or have with considerable work popped a bit. So you are playing classic breakouts. 

From my perspective they always offer either a poor R:R or if you place tight stops under a significant recent bar a poor win rate, small stops get hit more often, especially as the ranges expand considering the set up.

Again from my perspective playing trades that move off bases or pullbacks allow much more practical set ups (ie. you can actually make money over 100 trades). You have three outcomes,

1. You get stopped out.
2. You get a run up to old highs/resistance. And therefore get to move your stop to BE.
3. You get a run up to old highs/resistance that then turns into a breakout trade which you then have a great R:R


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## motorway (28 February 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> A quick scroll up to most of your other charts show you are picking patterns where the stocks are approaching previous resistance or have with considerable work popped a bit. So you are playing classic breakouts.
> 
> From my perspective they always offer either a poor R:R or if you place tight stops under a significant recent bar a poor win rate, small stops get hit more often, especially as the ranges expand considering the set up.
> 
> ...





good insight !

Pav.......consider where is the SPRINGBOARD !



Motorway


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## tech/a (29 February 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> A quick scroll up to most of your other charts show you are picking patterns where the stocks are approaching previous resistance or have with considerable work popped a bit. So you are playing classic breakouts.
> 
> From my perspective they always offer either a poor R:R or if you place tight stops under a significant recent bar a poor win rate, small stops get hit more often, especially as the ranges expand considering the set up.
> 
> ...






motorway said:


> good insight !
> 
> Pav.......consider where is the SPRINGBOARD !
> 
> ...




Excellent.


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## pavilion103 (29 February 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> A quick scroll up to most of your other charts show you are picking patterns where the stocks are approaching previous resistance or have with considerable work popped a bit. So you are playing classic breakouts.
> 
> From my perspective they always offer either a poor R:R or if you place tight stops under a significant recent bar a poor win rate, small stops get hit more often, especially as the ranges expand considering the set up.
> 
> ...




Yeh I have fallen back into that trap upon reflection. 

I will continue to test my ideas as I go. 

I definitely want the majority of my trades to be on the springboard and return a strong R:R. I will also look for those opportunities where breakouts occur on good absorption volume and establish some more concrete entry rules for those.


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## Boggo (29 February 2012)

Boggo said:


> A half dozen from tonights data where I wouldn't mind seeing you guys apply a bit of VSA analysis to.
> 
> BND - CCU - GBG - HGO - PEK - NFE.





Nothing too shabby in that lot really Pav, PEK is the winner today though.


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## pavilion103 (29 February 2012)

Boggo said:


> Nothing too shabby in that lot really Pav, PEK is the winner today though.




Yeh I saw that. PEK was a great one!

Did you get on any?


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## Boggo (29 February 2012)

pavilion103 said:


> Yeh I saw that. PEK was a great one!
> 
> Did you get on any?




Yes, CCU, where you are using VSA as secondary analysis I am using EW, in this case the weekly chart EW analysis is textbook so far 

Edit - looks like my order for BND just got filled at the close, had intended to remove that !

Reaching 1.20 area would be nice.

(click to expand)


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## pavilion103 (29 February 2012)

I'm looking at the PEK chart now. It's gapped up through strong resistance. I'll be interested to see how this plays out in the following days.


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## Trembling Hand (29 February 2012)

pavilion103 said:


> Yeh I have fallen back into that trap upon reflection.
> 
> I will continue to test my ideas as I go.
> 
> I definitely want the majority of my trades to be on the springboard and return a strong R:R. I will also look for those opportunities where breakouts occur on good absorption volume and establish some more concrete entry rules for those.




An under looked process in someone trying to learn TA/trading is losing the forest for the trees as far as how the market unfolds over time. You can spend your 10,000 hours looking at charts of breakouts an/or whatever setups but by the nature of hunting for these you are building in a survivorship bias. You will look at a chart like SYR for example and think "arh thats what I want". Then go about finding that pattern and endless explaining the _why's it did this_ and _why's it didn't do that_. Rationising every move, every bar maybe without context.

But the bottom line or maybe the starting point is *timing*. The time as to when to risk money. Spending sometime on working for example the process of a chart like SYR compared to or within the context of what was happening to the broader market. With this one for me December action was telling given the overall market context.

Just a fell thoughts.


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## pavilion103 (29 February 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> An under looked process in someone trying to learn TA/trading is losing the forest for the trees as far as how the market unfolds over time. You can spend your 10,000 hours looking at charts of breakouts an/or whatever setups but by the nature of hunting for these you are building in a survivorship bias. You will look at a chart like SYR for example and think "arh thats what I want". Then go about finding that pattern and endless explaining the _why's it did this_ and _why's it didn't do that_. Rationising every move, every bar maybe without context.
> 
> But the bottom line or maybe the starting point is *timing*. The time as to when to risk money. Spending sometime on working for example the process of a chart like SYR compared to or within the context of what was happening to the broader market. With this one for me December action was telling given the overall market context.
> 
> Just a fell thoughts.




I'm not sure what you mean with that last part Trembling Hand. Are you referring to when the December market was falling sharply but the stock was not (relative strength)? Please correct me if I'm wrong. 

I must admit that I do see charts like that one and think, all I need is a couple of those wins here and there to make my trading truly profitable. It seems particularly in my testing and simulation that the 5-7R trades come along every now and then and really add to the profitability. 

Keep in mind that I am very much still learning and more than open to input from others, in fact I strongly welcome it and ask for it. I am an open book and well aware that the input from yourself and other more experienced traders is very valuable for me at this stage of my development.


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## motorway (1 March 2012)

> STX - note there IS resistance further to the left of the chart back in July/Aug 2011. This volume, however is not close to the magnitude of the recent ultra high volume bar.




You are looking at Support and Resistance like everyone else.

Not like Wyckoff

what is more important
something that happens in a moment
or something that perseveres through time for an amount of time ? 

The collapse of say the Gilliard Gov or of the Roman Empire ?

You correctly looking at the upthrust high

But where is support and resistance ?

What of the many bars to the right  of that bar
Where price traded for a significant period of time ?

Why was the behavior there not more Important and any change originating out of that area more important ?

Later Wyckoff  refers to this as the "Creek"..  The flow of supply through time.

Old highs and lows are only just that.
Sure they are important points to gauge.

But they are not where the Spring Board IS or to be found.

Motorway


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## pavilion103 (1 March 2012)

Thanks Motorway,

Are you saying that I should be placing higher consideration on congestion zones, rather than one-off ultra high volume bars, at prices where there has been little trading (other than that one-off bar)?

And when price trades near/in these congestion zoned that is when I should really be attentive and look at the spread and volume in terms of VSA to see how the stock behaves at these pivotal points?


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## Boggo (2 March 2012)

pavilion103 said:


> I'm looking at the PEK chart now. It's gapped up through strong resistance. I'll be interested to see how this plays out in the following days.




Some interest in PEK again this morning after yesterdays sell off.

RED and ZYL on the close watch list now too.


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## Trembling Hand (2 March 2012)

pavilion103 said:


> I'm not sure what you mean with that last part Trembling Hand. Are you referring to when the December market was falling sharply but the stock was not (relative strength)? Please correct me if I'm wrong.




Yeah not a well put point of veiw on my behalf, still a little foggy :silly:

Just trying to point out that any chart outcome has as much to do with the overall market as much as the individual setup.

Don't spend all your time learning/looking for chart setups and ignoring how markets as a whole move. If you can understand where we are at as a market, to use the current vernacular risk on or risk off, you will develop a far greater understanding of when to start risking money on trades and when to be patient, when to chase and when to wait for pull backs, when to let a profit run and when to take what you can get.

Without this understanding you will end up buying breakouts just as they turn to failed breakouts and you will be buying support just as they are about to turn into failed support.

IMO.


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## pavilion103 (2 March 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah not a well put point of veiw on my behalf, still a little foggy :silly:
> 
> Just trying to point out that any chart outcome has as much to do with the overall market as much as the individual setup.
> 
> ...




Very good point. 

I am currently reading and re-rading Wyckoff. He talks a lot about the relative strength of a stock compared to the overall market/index. 
I guess not even just the relative strengt, but it's important to consider where the market is at and how it is behaving. 

This is my process for identifying stocks:

1. Load up chart of XAO (add to any analysis I have on it).
2. Undertake my scans and any other sources for charts to look at at night. 
3. Add any interesting charts to watchlist and look over the ones I am analysing on my watch lits presently.
4. If it looks good:
a) consider it's relative strength to the XAO
b) ensure the weekly chart also looks favourable 
c) ensure I can get good R:R from a potential trade. 

I do fall into the trap of taking shortcuts on nights when I'm pressed for time. It's best if I just don't trade if I don't follow my process. 


I think I'm like a house at the moment. I've poured the concrete, laid the frames but am just adding a brick at a time. I'm heading in the right direction but just need to make some of these principles more solid in my psychy. It's easy for me to go back to buying around a breakout area and looking at simple support and resistance, but I know that the more Wyckoff I read, the better I get. It isn't so much about learning new material,but drumming in the stuff I've already read.


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## motorway (2 March 2012)

In looking at relative strength

It is not using ratios and look back periods .
It is looking at what is being bought in weakness.
what is being sold into strength .


On congestion .. consider what does a trend emerge from ?
What does a trend dissipate into to.

What is your task ? 


Wyckoff is about the method... So do not neglect the figure chart studies
EVEN if you never use a Figure chart !


what does he say 



> The most valuable feature of Figure Charts.
> It is in these horizontal formations, or congestion areas, on the figure
> chart that we find the greatest aid: (a) in determining how far a stock should
> go; (b) when it meets opposition, viz., when it has about reached the end of
> ...




The most valuable feature is not TOPS and BOTTOMS
It is the ZONES of congestion. Because that is where trends start !

The figure chart will display congestion like no other chart.
That is why he uses it.

But that is not the point. The point is no matter what , the congestion areas are  very important. Does not matter how you look at the market or what you are using to look at it.

Consider the difference between EFFORT and CAUSE.

Effort is volume , the amount of volume. Its gives a heads up at turning points !
Cause is the driver of trends. The figure chart changes direction every time demand or supply is exhausted.That demand and supply is exhausted ,No matter what the volume , is what matters .

A wall falls over when the forces holding it up are exhausted.
The amount of force at any time does not matter.
What matters is that there is Exhaustion.

Identify that and you  know the wall will collapse.

Effort can never identify Cause
and without a Cause there are NO TRENDS.

A cause is tied to this idea of Exhaustion



Consider in a congestion zone
demand and supply are balanced

Each swing up and down is momentarily exhausting one and then the other .
So given an aggregate of such swings ? Given a congestion zone ?

==>Many things start happening.

And then it is time to watch EFFORT.

But the congestion zone is important.
Because that is where the trend is born
Where the Springboard is to be identified.


Not Tops and Bottoms.

Motorway


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## motorway (2 March 2012)

Consider Wyckoff's continual use of the present tense



> when it meets opposition




When price becomes congested

THAT is  SUPPORT or RESISTANCE.

When price leaves congestion 

That is overcoming Support or resistance.

Lines you may draw ?

Are drawn by you. and are not "internal" to the market itself.

Motorway


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## pavilion103 (2 March 2012)

Thanks for taking the time again to post. 

A lot to digest there. 

As I said, I am reading and re-reading the Wyckoff course. This is the hard work that is required.

It helps to have people looking at my analysis and pointing this out.


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## pavilion103 (20 March 2012)

I'm monitoring this one at the moment. 

What do we think about this one if it can break above (and possibly consolidate at) the resistance points indicated on both charts.

Volume has started to increase and is showing bullish signs imo. Obviously all will depend on whether it has the power to break. 
Is this worth entering on a break or on consolidation around this point after any break?

Any reasons for not entering this one should it break?


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## pavilion103 (20 March 2012)

Is this one a good entry/potential good entry coming up?

IIN - see analysis on chart.


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## peter2 (20 March 2012)

Pav: You keep asking if the chart shows a good entry. It's an ignorant question and you should know this by now. Nobody knows what is going to happen next and we don't know what you are looking for. Your job is to identify trading opportunities that you want to use. You asked about CPU which looks like a break out trade. Then you ask about IIN which looks like a buy on support trade. Two very different types of setups. It looks like you still haven't decided what you are trying to trade. Make up your mind. Master one setup before adding another.

Have you thought about creating a checklist to help you evaluate your charts in a consistent manner? If you had one then you would know if a setup fits your criteria. You won't need to ask because you'll know.


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## tech/a (20 March 2012)

pavilion103 said:


> Is this one a good entry/potential good entry coming up?
> 
> IIN - see analysis on chart.
> 
> View attachment 46504




Look at the 2 volume spikes.
The first penetrated new ground at the low huge volume
What is it trying to do? Push up and it succeeded.
Now the difference with the last high volume bar is 
That it's trying to sell off. The effort after the sell off is 
Very poor ( trying to go up )
There is a vast difference between the two.

This is going to come off and I expect penetration of support in 1 or 2 bars.

So no not a good one.


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## pavilion103 (20 March 2012)

peter2 said:


> Pav: You keep asking if the chart shows a good entry. It's an ignorant question and you should know this by now. Nobody knows what is going to happen next and we don't know what you are looking for. Your job is to identify trading opportunities that you want to use. You asked about CPU which looks like a break out trade. Then you ask about IIN which looks like a buy on support trade. Two very different types of setups. It looks like you still haven't decided what you are trying to trade. Make up your mind. Master one setup before adding another.
> 
> Have you thought about creating a checklist to help you evaluate your charts in a consistent manner? If you had one then you would know if a setup fits your criteria. You won't need to ask because you'll know.




I have specific setups that I trade. I have a detail written entry plan as well as trade management plan. 

I am aware that both of these are very different types of entry. I am asking questions to learn, particularly to get opinions on supply and demand. As well as focusing on my own setups, I am interested in expanding my knowledge, particularly in reading what stage of a phase a stock might be in. 

I am not afraid to ask questions and will continue to do so. If you have meaningful information to contribute feel free to be one of the people that answers.


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## pavilion103 (20 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Look at the 2 volume spikes.
> The first penetrated new ground at the low huge volume
> What is it trying to do? Push up and it succeeded.
> Now the difference with the last high volume bar is
> ...




Thanks Tech. I guess because I didn't see climactic volume at the top, I thought maybe it was pulling back, before resuming its uptrend (also due to the strong support level). I'm not used to seeing such a high volume narrow spread up bar (3 bars ago) in that place. I'm used to seeing them closer to the top.


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## Gringotts Bank (20 March 2012)

I agree IIN looks like a buy on trendline  support, ie. buy at today's close.

CPU I'd put a bid in at 8.55.  Double bottom target of 9.39

Are you sure you're not over-complicating things pavillion?


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## peter2 (20 March 2012)

Do yourself a favour and find an example of a perfect setup. A setup so perfect that you would trade it every time you see it. Then list all the reasons that make it perfect in your eyes. This is your starting checklist. This list will probably be quite long (~10 items) when you first create it. Prioritise the important items. This should be 3-4 items that are essential for your setup. The next 5-6 items are then confirmatory items, nice to have but not critical. 

You'll simplify this list as you gain experience. You can't start with a simple list as you don't really know what is and isn't important for you yet. 

Next, find and trade (monitor) the next 20 perfect setups and evaluate your results. You will learn much more by trying this and if you fail to make a profit you might learn even more.


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## Timmy (20 March 2012)

peter2 said:


> Do yourself a favour and find an example of a perfect setup. A setup so perfect that you would trade it every time you see it. Then list all the reasons that make it perfect in your eyes. This is your starting checklist. This list will probably be quite long (~10 items) when you first create it. Prioritise the important items. This should be 3-4 items that are essential for your setup. The next 5-6 items are then confirmatory items, nice to have but not critical.
> 
> You'll simplify this list as you gain experience. You can't start with a simple list as you don't really know what is and isn't important for you yet.
> 
> Next, find and trade (monitor) the next 20 perfect setups and evaluate your results. You will learn much more by trying this and if you fail to make a profit you might learn even more.




We really need a "Like" button. Another great post Peter2.


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## pavilion103 (20 March 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I agree IIN looks like a buy on trendline  support, ie. buy at today's close.
> 
> CPU I'd put a bid in at 8.55.  Double bottom target of 9.39
> 
> Are you sure you're not over-complicating things pavillion?




Maybe I am overcomplicating things.


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## tech/a (21 March 2012)

pavilion103 said:


> Maybe I am overcomplicating things.




Maybe your too concerned about being right
Than learning how to profit when you get it wrong?

Understand that profit more often comes from profits that far exceed losses.


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## pavilion103 (21 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Maybe your too concerned about being right
> Than learning how to profit when you get it wrong?
> 
> Understand that profit more often comes from profits that far exceed losses.




You're right. 

Every time I get a trade 'wrong' I do the right thing and analyse it but I start to think about how I can avoid it next time, rather than accepting that sometimes my analysis can be good but it just didn't work out this time. 

I'll go through a period where 3R-4R wins are pouring in and then as soon as I go through a lean patch I think I must be donig something wrong. 

I have the fundamentals right; my wins far exceed my lossess and my accuracy is enough so that, based on the above, I have a positive expectancy.
I've been particularly good with the risk management side of things in exiting positions which a) go against me b) don't move quickly enough. 

I am too concerned with being right every time which is not helpful. I go through patches where I produce strong 3-4R wins, but as soon as I get 5-6 losses (even small ones) in a row I start to doubt. I need to develop more confidence in my system.

I didn't see this as a psychological issue but maybe it is rather than a technical one.


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## pavilion103 (21 March 2012)

peter2 said:


> Do yourself a favour and find an example of a perfect setup. A setup so perfect that you would trade it every time you see it. Then list all the reasons that make it perfect in your eyes. This is your starting checklist. This list will probably be quite long (~10 items) when you first create it. Prioritise the important items. This should be 3-4 items that are essential for your setup. The next 5-6 items are then confirmatory items, nice to have but not critical.
> 
> You'll simplify this list as you gain experience. You can't start with a simple list as you don't really know what is and isn't important for you yet.
> 
> Next, find and trade (monitor) the next 20 perfect setups and evaluate your results. You will learn much more by trying this and if you fail to make a profit you might learn even more.




This post resonates with me. 

I guess it's like a business operating in a niche market. There are other products/services they could also do to be profitable but can they do it as well as their main business? Find something that works and repeat it with consistency over and over. 

Thanks


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## Trembling Hand (21 March 2012)

pavilion103 said:


> I go through patches where I produce strong 3-4R wins, but as soon as I get 5-6 losses (even small ones) in a row I start to doubt. I need to develop more confidence in my system.
> 
> I didn't see this as a psychological issue but maybe it is rather than a technical one.



No its not a "psychological issue" its an issue of skill. 

When you understand what "phase" the market is in then you will know when to risk trading and greatly reduce your periods of drawdown/consecutive loses (although they never fully go). You will know what pattern to look for and when and what is looking like fools gold (ie potential breackouts just as we are about to tank)

Until then you will be like every other skill-less pilot. flopping around hoping for the best but worrying mostly about the crash landing.


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## blue0810 (21 March 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> No its not a "psychological issue" its an issue of skill.
> 
> .




Plumber is a Plumber, Priest is a Priest, Trader is a Trader.


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## Gringotts Bank (21 March 2012)

blue0810 said:


> Plumber is a Plumber, Priest is a Priest, Trader is a Trader.




Some wisdom in that blue.

However I feel like pavillion knows what he's doing (and it would be good if he felt the same way!)


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## peter2 (21 March 2012)

This is a classic example of a common psychological obstacle that needs to be overcome. 

If you can have a batch of 3-4R winners and keep the size of your losers <-1 then you have the basics of a profitable trading business. Your overall W% must be high enough so that the total wins exceed the total losses. You only need a W% of 33% to be profitable with these basic stats. With a W% of 33% you will commonly have periods of 12 - 16 consecutive losses. Be prepared for it. Think about it 12 losses of -0.6R = -7.2. Two winners of +4 and you are back. 

The losing sequences experienced by a system with a W% of 70% is very different to that of a system with a W% of 33%. Understanding these differences is purely educational. Trading through them is purely psychological. Every minor rough patch that you trade through makes you a better trader. When you can do it you will have developed a very valuable skill. 

I agree with TH in that it would be helpful to evaluate your results in the context of the market conditions. This would allow you to fine tune your basic strategy and be able to recognise both favourable and unfavourable market conditions for your strategy. This is pure research (work) but it may help you psychologically knowing this.


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## pavilion103 (19 April 2012)

ICN - with this one just wanted to see if people think the volume is climactic? 
It is coming into a previous resistance zone which looks like it will be very difficult to penetrate. It has already had a good run. 

In the more recent action price has fallen on lower volume, but as we know volume doesn't have to be huge for it to decline further. 

The two recent wide spread high volume down bars suggest some support in this previous high volume zone, confirmed by up days the following days. 

Can this one push back up to its highs or is this one done? I'm not too confident but would love some thoughts.


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## pavilion103 (28 April 2012)

Here is another one.


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## Spongle (26 June 2012)

PLEASE IGNORE THIS ONE I STUFFED IT UP... ahem

the next one is fornatted better


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## Spongle (26 June 2012)




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## Trembling Hand (26 June 2012)

Spongle said:


> View attachment 47613




Spongle I'd be more worried about the three lower highs over the last month than that up trend.


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## Joules MM1 (26 June 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Spongle I'd be more worried about the three lower highs over the last month than that up trend.




that's a great comment, TH ......expanding on that would be far more educational if you have time.....encouraging reading price....


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## tech/a (26 June 2012)

There is no analysis on the chart

Just drawing of highs and lows touching and a
couple of expectations noted.
There is no consideration of pattern or range and or volume.
No management nor risk details


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## Spongle (1 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> There is no consideration of *pattern or range and or volume.*
> No management nor risk details




Pattern? please elaborate. 

Hmmm...

will go over the tech analysis stickys to go over some fundamentals (lol)


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## pavilion103 (2 July 2012)

COH was an ASX Power Setup on The Chartist, posted 25th June. Interesting.


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## Spongle (10 July 2012)

Thought?

Has broken above the support line that it briefly fell below and has almost approached the 8.55 resistance line... all whilst on a fairly rigorous uptrend with reasonably good volume to support it. I am a novice so I this  is just be speculation.

I think it may break that reasistance line and reach approx 8.55 by the end of the month.

thougts?


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## tech/a (10 July 2012)

Spongle said:


> View attachment 47820
> 
> 
> Thought?
> ...




This is a range trade stock.
buy at support short at resistance.
Other than that it's as boring as " bat thingy "


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## Spongle (10 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> This is a range trade stock.
> buy at support short at resistance.
> Other than that it's as boring as " bat thingy "




Ahh I see

Would you expect rice to breach that resistance line significantly and if so, what should I be looking for?

I realize it cant follow that short uptrend forever (wouldnt that be nice) but wht would/should i look for as signal that it will continue?


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## tech/a (10 July 2012)

Spongle said:


> Ahh I see
> 
> Would you expect rice to breach that resistance line significantly and if so, what should I be looking for?
> 
> I realize it cant follow that short uptrend forever (wouldnt that be nice) but wht would/should i look for as signal that it will continue?




Spongle

Youve drawn important lines in Channel and S&R
But youll note that volume is ho hum just bumbling along no spikes and no extremely low volume bars.
No price gaps and no large range bars
The signs of increasing interest and waning supply.
If I was in this stock Id be looking at selling at resistance.
Only a clear impulse through resistance would have me stay in.


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## pavilion103 (11 July 2012)

I'm keen to get back into this thread with some indepth analysis of trading opportunities. Unfortunately the current market hasn't afforded too many that fit my criteria. I don't like being on the sidelines but hopefully will be back in here posting soon  I think it's best that I post the best opportunities in here, rather than willy-nilly posting chart after chart. That way we can have a decent in-depth discussion on few opportunities.


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## Spongle (19 July 2012)

Interesting
8.10 at the on the 09/07 and 8.40  as of yesterday 19/07.

3.7% increase in 10 days not too shabby

or if you were to get in frome the second trading day of june: 7.60 to now at 8.40 a hefty 10.5% increase over 5weeks!

A qustion for the gurus: If one was to go with the second option what would be the best things to look for that would indicate a contuation of this short term trend... I like OHLC bars and while the volume dosent look too great I'm sure I am missing something.

Any thoughts?

(sorry for no updated chart... an on my mates computer)


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## pavilion103 (19 July 2012)

Spongle said:


> Interesting
> 8.10 at the on the 09/07 and 8.40  as of yesterday 19/07.
> 
> 3.7% increase in 10 days not too shabby
> ...




Closed 8.64 in the end on the high. 

What I would have been looking for is strong absorption volume as it breaks through resistance. Today's volume doesn't look particularly strong however.


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## pavilion103 (24 July 2012)

TGA - comments on the chart. This is an interesting one. I'm thinking to wait for a breakout on strong absorption volume before getting in (maybe on the pullback). Is there anyone who would get in before the breakout based on the recent narrowing of range and tapering off of volume as it slowly trends upwards in the mirco pattern?


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## pavilion103 (24 July 2012)

This is one that I like better - SLX
My thoughts on the chart 

Is it preparing for another up move? 
Is the current stop too wide (entry 4.45, stop 4.12)?


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## pavilion103 (26 July 2012)

AMM - Analysis on charts


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## tech/a (26 July 2012)

PAV
Both are very similar charts.
If you expand them out you'll see that both are testing the top consolidation pattern.
The immediate consolidation is in context very small in comparison to the bigger pattern

Both are now attracting supply.
The good news as you've noted is that supply was absorbed then pushed the resistance.
Volume still high.
In the context of the Broarder pattern there still isn't a breakout so they are both really 
Testing long term highs.

So what to look for is this supply to get knocked out and either a gap through resistance ( the longterm stuff)
Or a wide range bar on good volume closing at it's high. Not massive volume which indicates supply.

So close but not quite yet
Sure you could take a position in both in anticipation and by now you'd know how to minimize risk in this positions.

With such long consolidations the moves out of it will in the end likely be substantial.


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## pavilion103 (26 July 2012)

I will continue to watch. With AMM admittedly today was not a genuine longer term breakout. 

It will be interesting to see if we do see a wide spread bar clear this resistance with some good volume.

Thanks again for the input Tech. Much appreciated mate


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## pavilion103 (26 July 2012)

TTS - Analysis on chart. 

I forgot to post this one on this board.


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## pavilion103 (27 July 2012)

AMM - good day today but closing off the high in the end so some supply. It will be interesting to see if this one pulls back a little to test the high volume area.


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