# Peter Schiff - What's everyone's thoughts on his take?



## inenigma (7 December 2008)

Hi,

As I'm very much still a newbie, I'm wondering what the herd mentality is towards Peter Schiff and his ideas ???

http://www.safehaven.com/archive-162.htm


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## BradK (7 December 2008)

inenigma said:


> Hi,
> 
> As I'm very much still a newbie, I'm wondering what the herd mentality is towards Peter Schiff and his ideas ???
> 
> http://www.safehaven.com/archive-162.htm




Like him. He is Ron Paul's economics advisor. He comes from the Austrian school of economics. 

See also Marc Faber and Jim Rogers. 

Brad


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## Dowdy (7 December 2008)

I've been listening to him since the start of the year and even just a few months ago they were laughing at him.

Now the economists agree that the USA was in recession since DEC 07 - something that Schiff and Ron Paul have been saying all along.

Schiff was predicting this in 06!


If you want to see another guy, check out max keiser. He's a bit more of a conspiracy theorists but his documentaries and interviews are quite good


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## Naked shorts (7 December 2008)

Dowdy said:


> I've been listening to him since the start of the year and even just a few months ago they were laughing at him.



Yeah i remember that, humble pie is now all that is left on the menu

I dont mind peter, he knows whats he's talking about. But he did suggest gold might goto $5000/oz which im not too sure about...

Check out gorge soros aswell


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## BentRod (7 December 2008)

His fund is down over 40% this year, the last I heard.

He is often right with his predictions though.:


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## inenigma (7 December 2008)

BradK said:


> Like him. He is Ron Paul's economics advisor. He comes from the Austrian school of economics.
> 
> See also Marc Faber and Jim Rogers.
> 
> Brad




Does anyone know how much it is to subscribe to the "Gloom, Boom and Doom" report.  Or do I get to make a fool of myself asking Ms Lucie Wang ???


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## theasxgorilla (7 December 2008)

BentRod said:


> His fund is down over 40% this year, the last I heard.
> 
> He is often right with his predictions though.:




Yep, it takes some wisdom to realise that predictions don't equal returns and failed predictions don't equal losses.  In otherwords, I'm often interested to hear what Peter is saying, but I wouldn't necessarily invest in everything he says to invest in over at Europacific Capital.


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## BentRod (7 December 2008)

> Does anyone know how much it is to subscribe to the "Gloom, Boom and Doom" report. Or do I get to make a fool of myself asking Ms Lucie Wang ??




http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/public/pSTD.cfm?pageSPS_ID=1000


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## BentRod (7 December 2008)

theasxgorilla said:


> Yep, it takes some wisdom to realise that predictions don't equal returns and failed predictions don't equal losses.  In otherwords, I'm often interested to hear what Peter is saying, but I wouldn't necessarily invest in everything he says to invest in over at Europacific Capital.





I like watching him also, his book was good too.

I think the main reason he is hurting this year is because of the USD strength, that was something he didn't factor in.


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## BentRod (7 December 2008)

This is good for a laugh.

Just shows how right he was.  
The contrarian approach works again.


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## GumbyLearner (7 December 2008)

Here's one of Schiff being anti-spruiked 

http://www.videosift.com/video/Peter-Schiff-vs-Ben-Stein-and-random-idiots-81807

Here's one where Schiff is accused of being a "party-pooper"

http://video.google.com/videosearch...sa=X&oi=video_result_group&resnum=4&ct=title#

Heres one of the "party-pooper" accusers economic theories being proposed by the anti-spruiker (Ben Stein recommending to buy the Merrill Lynch mob)
22 YEARS AGO! THE ART LAFFER CURVE

http://www.videosift.com/video/Ben-Stein-Ferris-Buellers-Day-Off

This Schiff guy has certainly copped a lot of flack that's for sure


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## theasxgorilla (7 December 2008)

BentRod said:


> I think the main reason he is hurting this year is because of the USD strength, that was something he didn't factor in.




It's a lesson for many.  I didn't factor in the weakness of the AUD...I now know that interest rate differentials mean comparatively little for Australia when global markets have become risk averse.


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## BradK (7 December 2008)

Let me add to the thread question... 

Thoughts on Marc Faber and Jim Rogers? 

Brad


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## Indie (7 December 2008)

I subscribe to Faber's report. He's been mostly right but like Schiff has been wrong about gold this year. 

What happens with gold over the next year is the real test for these guys. If it cracks below $600 and stays there, then they are both very wrong on one of their main plays.


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## Ageo (8 December 2008)

The one thing i like about Schiff is his overall view on things, i dont really take straight advice on where things will be etc.. (especially short term) but i can see how gold will be much higher in the future (5 yr time frame).

All in all Schiff is 1 of the few that actually knows what his talking about regarding the overall U.S economy.


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## dhukka (8 December 2008)

Schiff has been spot on with his predictions except I think he is wrong on the hyper-inflation scenario or at best way too early. As others have said he didn't anticipate the USD's strength and I think he had a lot invested in asia as well which hurt him. Whilst the Fed has been increasing the size of their balance sheet exponentially, I think inflation is a long way off yet as the velocity of money drops and banks are still holding back on lending. See John Maudlin's "Thoughts from the front line" this week for a look at why deflation will predominate in the short term.


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## Wysiwyg (8 December 2008)

dhukka said:


> Schiff has been spot on with his predictions except I think he is wrong on the hyper-inflation scenario or at best way too early. *As **others have said he didn't anticipate the USD's strength *and I think he had a lot invested in asia as well which hurt him.




Van Tharp e-mail newsletters predicted a continued declining USD also.Then again we are probably his food source.


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## numbercruncher (8 December 2008)

BentRod said:


> I like watching him also, his book was good too.
> 
> I think the main reason he is hurting this year is because of the USD strength, that was something he didn't factor in.





I didnt think the USD would " fly to safety " ie/ return home like it did ... Also have the feeling the fat lady hasnt finished singing on that issue either ......

Time will tell, but I bet its strength caught alot of bears off guard ??


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## inenigma (8 December 2008)

Thanks Guys.  My original question has definitely been answered......


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## Macquack (8 December 2008)

BentRod said:


> This is good for a laugh.
> 
> Just shows how right he (Schiff) was.
> The contrarian approach works again.




That wanker Aurthur Laffer (should be Laughter) owes Peter Schiff a penny (bet) and also a signed letter that he (Laffer) was wrong.


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## Conza88 (11 March 2009)

BradK said:


> Like him. He is Ron Paul's economics advisor. He comes from the Austrian school of economics.
> 
> See also Marc Faber and Jim Rogers.
> 
> Brad




Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle is an amazing piece of knowledge to have. Lot of people losing money because they're ignorant of the Business Cycles causes. 

Mises.org - Home of the Austrian School of Economics

Quality stuff.


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## maffu (27 April 2009)

If you have watched the Peter Schiff was right youtube video and like what he says, he has actually started a regular youtube weblog.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShYjAqd2YBU&feature=PlayList&p=3EBA02237EA29F05&index=0

That link is episode 1, he currently has 18 web logs, dating from February 20, 2009 to April 24 2009, he will probably continue to post a few a day.
The above link should load as a playlist, the 18 videos will play through from start to finish, or if you only want to watch his newest ones then his chanel is: http://www.youtube.com/user/TheSchiffReport

I think it is important to seperate his underlying economic views and predictions away from investment advice. He is making good predictions, but not timing the market. I'm not suprised if his fund reguarly loses money, he is predicting things too early. The USD will eventually depreciate when inflation hits, but he predicted(put money into) it way too early.


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## Naked shorts (27 April 2009)

maffu said:


> I'm not suprised if his fund reguarly loses money, he is predicting things too early. The USD will eventually depreciate when inflation hits, but he predicted(put money into) it way too early.




He's not a fund manager, hes a broker


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## metric (27 April 2009)

inenigma said:


> Hi,
> 
> As I'm very much still a newbie, I'm wondering what the herd mentality is ???
> 
> http://www.safehaven.com/archive-162.htm




:newbie:


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## Dowdy (3 May 2009)

my brother bought me he latest book "Bull moves in bear markets" 

It's a good read but mainly based towards US readers


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