# Tech/a on Technical Analysis



## tech/a (28 December 2018)

Over 25 yrs I've studied a lot of what is available in the technical analysis field.
I've also worked for 2 yrs with people who are amazing with Data analysis and
coding on a level well beyond the capabilities of 99.95% of us. AI is the future
for those who can access it.

Does this mean we are all doomed --- I dont think so AI will be in a space we
will not go to it will find things that we cant see.--Just another player--a powerful
one at that.

While 80% of Technical Analysis is worth the time to become proficient in the Technical space.
Little is of practical value in *ISOLATION.*

I'm not going to enter into argument on which is best and which is rubbish.
Rather Ill concentrate on that which I have found as valuable in my own trading
What I look for and Why---you will then need to plot your own path--hopefully with
more purpose and Clear---er Direction.

_Technical analysis at best leads you to a trading opportunity whether that be long or short.
Risk managements saves you from your own bias and the fallibility of *any* form of analysis.
Reward to risk on capital traded is your score card--the money follows._

*The most powerful technical tool is the analysis of PATTERNS*

Not the first to see this.

Gann
Elliott 
Steidlmayer
Williams
Gartley
Edwards and McGee
Pring
Van Tharp

All looked at Patterns in their own way.

Patterns of* meaning* form in *all sorts* of DATA not just price.

Volume
Range
Seasonality
Open interest
Long and Short holders.
Course of Trades
Time

There Are Many more places to look.
There are a great many patterns but by far
my favorite is Consolidations. In Price/Range/Volume 
Everything happening *IN* Patterns leads to what Happens 
*OUTSIDE* of Patterns.
More often than not it reads *IN CONTEXT* with clarity.


The value lies in
*What happens* *in* these patterns

Where it happens in a chart/data EG
After a prolonged move.
After a short move 
After a wide range very high volume bar.
There are a lot more


When it happens in a chart/data
After a long period of time
Straight after another consolidation of size or Very small
Mondays-every May-
After High volume
After Low Volume 
There are a lot more

Why it happens.
News.
Volume
World economics
Demand incoming or leaving.
Again many more.

But in every case ONE occurrence IN A pattern can trigger events to occur
outside the pattern and that's when you want to be on it! 


The pattern as you will find in isolation has little value as they will fail just as often as
they conform to standard technical theory. Of little value when you want to trade the Chart/Data.
30-50% success maybe acceptable in some models but frustrating and useless to others.
Particularly those Trading in a discretionary manner.

The *second* Most powerful Tool is 

*The analysis of single Occurrences or Occurrence Clusters Inside or Outside of Patterns*

*Trends are patterns!*

They can be 
Single or Groups of Bars
Volume
News catalysts.
Chart Characteristics.
Time.


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## Skate (28 December 2018)

I'm salivating...

I can't wait for the next post.

Skate.


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## mcgrath111 (28 December 2018)

tech/a said:


> Over 25 yrs I've studied a lot of what is available in the technical analysis field.
> I've also worked for 2 yrs with people who are amazing with Data analysis and
> coding on a level well beyond the capabilities of 99.95% of us. AI is the future
> for those who can access it.
> ...



Hey techa,

I'm currently on holidays and would like a basic TA book to get some understanding into reading charts (For entry points for long positions).
Any recommendations? 

Thanks mate!


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## qldfrog (28 December 2018)

This is GOLD.thanks


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## tech/a (28 December 2018)

mcgrath111 said:


> Hey techa,
> 
> I'm currently on holidays and would like a basic TA book to get some understanding into reading charts (For entry points for long positions).
> Any recommendations?
> ...




Can get it free online
This is a good start.
Certainly an amount of relevance here
But a lot shown here you won’t find in any books.

http://www.tradeguider.com/mtm_251058.pdf


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## jbocker (29 December 2018)

tech/a said:


> Can get it free online
> This is a good start.
> Certainly an amount of relevance here
> But a lot shown here you won’t find in any books.
> ...



Thank You tech/a !!
I have read no more than 20 pages and realised that I am very distant (*far*) royalty (*king*) of doing many stupid things (*imbecile*) with respect to share trading! I am only appeased in that there may be hordes of people like me.
Please can I encourage you to continue with this good thread. This will be a treasure to add along with Skates Dump it Here.


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## tech/a (29 December 2018)

jbocker said:


> I am only appeased in that there may be hordes of people like me




The good news is you trade with them!
So do I


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## tech/a (29 December 2018)

Hi 
I'm about to shoot out the door for MORE! Xmas New year Socializing!

But I want those interested in this thread to have a look at the Price action following the very high Volume bars marked with red Arrows.
These bars and the *FOLLOWING* price and volume action lead the way to our discretionary decisions.

What do you think they are telling us about *CROWD MENTALITY*?


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## ducati916 (29 December 2018)

_There Are Many more places to look.
There are a great many patterns but by far
my favorite is Consolidations. In Price/Range/Volume 
Everything happening *IN* Patterns leads to what Happens 
*OUTSIDE* of Patterns.
More often than not it reads *IN CONTEXT* with clarity.
_
A consolidation is nothing more than price stability in a timeframe, which, will eventually break down to news/whatever, and become unstable. This instability is the move to a new point of stability [higher/lower, the trend].

Trading is simply recognising that price stability is ending.

Whipsaws are the enemy: they suggest that price stability is ending, when, in point of fact, it hasn't. The key then is differentiating the noise [whipsaw] from the signal [trend away from stability]. Once you can do that consistently, well you are home dry.

jog on
duc


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## ducati916 (29 December 2018)

_What do you think they are telling us about *CROWD MENTALITY*?_

They are all f****ing mental.

jog on
duc


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## tech/a (29 December 2018)

So now take a look at the same chart *WEEKLY*----Clearer?


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## tech/a (29 December 2018)

Doc
Said 
“Once you can do that consistently then your home and dry ‘

Please share


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## Boggo (29 December 2018)

Just a minor query tech/a.
Fibonacci levels do come into play more than most realise. Are you scaling your fib backwards from a recent highest high ?

The reason I ask is that I have in the past been looking at activity (vol/price behaviour) around fib extension and retracement levels.

Cheers, Boggo


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## tech/a (29 December 2018)

tech/a said:


> Doc
> Said
> “Once you can do that consistently then your home and dry ‘
> 
> Please share




Seriously!


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## ducati916 (30 December 2018)

tech/a said:


> Doc
> Said
> “Once you can do that consistently then your home and dry ‘
> 
> Please share




Timeframes. This is the starting point. I look at all the time frames initially. I also look quite quickly on the first pass, I don't want to study any 1 time period, I want areas of interest to jump out at me. If at a glance I see nothing, usually, there is nothing there.

This is a chopped down weekly chart.




There are 3 areas of 'consolidation (a) 2600/2800 and (b) 2600/2800 [again] and the transition to the two areas of more obvious consolidation. The first, not identified, would more likely be an exit area from an earlier trade.

Area (a) looks different in a daily time frame.




It breaks down into two areas of consolidation, both of which is potentially a trade, depending on the taking of that trade in a lower time period.

Consolidation (b) is much easier to trade:




Finally, the 'V' bottom on an hourly chart:




Which itself resolves into a number of consolidations: (a) forms the 'V' bottom, and the bar from 2350 up to [almost] 2400 would be your exit from the short trade.

There are then 2 small consolidations [in the middle there] that warrant either an exit awaiting a new entry or [ii] moving up stops [if you are liking the trade in higher time frames].

And the final consolidation at (c) which is where we are currently. I think we break higher. Confirmation will be a [true] move higher through this area.

And finally the 5min chart looking at consolidation (c):




So when I trade, I am first picking my time frame. I pick my time frame based on where I can see a significant consolidation. Thus my time frame will change and not be consistent. If I select the 1 hour time frame as holding the best consolidation, I am then looking at the daily, just to confirm that I still like the trade and the 30mins chart for an entry/exit. So the 1 hour triggers the trade, but the trade is managed in conjunction with the lower time frame.

This is the foundation. The foundation is built on the ability to 'see' the foundation in the first place. To the foundation you can add all of your bells and whistles to aid in that vision. Too many however will have the counter-intuitive effect of blinding or confusing you. Currently I like (a) Bollinger Bands and (b) VWAP. I have through the years used many others.

Hopefully that makes some sense.

jog on
duc


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## tech/a (30 December 2018)

Thanks Duc
I concur with some of your observations 
Have you found anything of interest you could share with regard to
Triggers inside of consolidations to watch for and then triggers that
Are good indications of moves outside of consolidation?

In other words do you read consolidations with an expectancy prior to
A trade or during a trade or ending a trade?


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## gartley (30 December 2018)

Hey Tech, great summary and thanks for your thoughts so far!!

My 2c worth.  I think a lot has to do with the type of trader you are. For example, reversal trader or trend continuation trader.
As a trend continuation trader I try to keep things as simple as possible and have created my own toolset which includes the following, and I need to place a tick in each box before entering a trade:
- Trend Indicator ( 8hr & daily chart)
I know on most occasions this can be obvious by eyeballing a chart, but when a market is in consolidation need to have a mechanism to tell the highest probability of which direcion it will break out. The way I approach it, is when the 8Hr and Daily cycles are in alignment the market has a 80% probabilty of moving in that direction over the next 1-2 days. Better still, if this analysis is wrong and market trends the opposite way, positions are quickly reversed because when this method IS wrong or a cycle inversion takes place some of the biggest moves occur.
- Volatility Indicator. I created my own but a 14period ATR also does a good job (daily chart)
Is the stock moving? If not why bother trading it and get whipsawed get stuck in a sideways move.
-Confirmation Indicator (daily chart)
Confirms trend Indicator & adds extra confluence to analysis
-Entry Indicator (1hr and 5Hr chart cycle alignment)
To position best possible entry within an existing trend
-Exit Indicator( 5Hr chartcyles change of direction)

*Through readiness and discipline, we are masters of our fate. Remember that always*.


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## ducati916 (31 December 2018)

tech/a said:


> Thanks Duc
> I concur with some of your observations
> Have you found anything of interest you could share with regard to
> Triggers inside of consolidations to watch for and then triggers that
> ...



I probably used to. Not [so much] anymore. I wait for confirmation. Which is why whipsaws can be an issue, viz. false breakout from consolidation.

jog on
duc


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## tech/a (31 December 2018)

Ive written a great deal in this thread on *Volume Control Bars (CR)*

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...text-catalysts-example-charts-analysis.34060/

When opening a chart from a search this is the first thing I mark on the chart.
Its from here I can work either back or forward to gain an indication of the quality
of the chart. For clarity I have only Labelled the bars.

Once found this would be a typical mark up.




If your interested mark up a few charts of your own 
before long you'll have quite a library of charts.
The running commentary is (I find) helpful at a GLANCE.  

*Close Ups Next*


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## Boggo (31 December 2018)

Another view of the chart on this post... Potential & Breakout trading--Technical tips and tricks

tech/a, I'd be interested in your thoughts in comparison to the software generated commentary.

(click to expand)


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## tech/a (31 December 2018)

Boggo
You got ahead of me!!!


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## Boggo (31 December 2018)

tech/a said:


> Boggo
> You got ahead of me!!!




Ooops, sorry tech/a, didn't mean to do that


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## tech/a (1 January 2019)

So Here is some reading of some of the consolidations on a weekly chart
culminating with the current one which is seen as bullish in real time.





I hope some find this helpful in their study of chart reading.
Try labeling up your own charts.

Next drilling down to daily charts and individual bars and clusters.

In the end I would like to follow this chart and 2 others real-time to help
hone our skills.

*Would someone like to suggest the next 2 Preferably Trading with volume and say above $2 or 1
and above $5 for the other.
*
If you take a good look at the second chart there are some past V/C bars
influencing the Current areas of trading. Not everything is marked up as It would look very confusing for anyone who cant see whats happening.
But I'm sure you'll see what I see if you have a good look!
This repeats so often you just cant ignore it.
You just need to be aware of what your looking for.

Questions?
Can you see this sort of thing repeating in your charts?


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## rogue1 (5 January 2019)

"Once most of the stock has been removed from the hands of other traders (ordinary private individuals), there will be little, or no stock left to sell into a mark-up in price (which would normally cause the price to drop). At this point of ‘critical mass’, the resistance to higher prices has been removed from the market. If accumulation has taken place in lots of other stocks, by many other professionals, at a similar time (because market conditions are right), we have the makings of a bull market. Once a bullish move starts, it will continue without resistance, as the supply has now been removed from the market."

I'm making my way slowly through Master the Market, but this paragraph has got me a little bit lost.

Could someone please explain what it means in simple terms..?


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## tech/a (5 January 2019)

Just in Perth for a couple of days so no charts to help

But
Markets or stock cannot rise if supply in large amounts is evident 
If this has been exhausted making a new high and through prior accumulation which can now be seen as accumulation as the price has made new highs

Then the stock/s and or markets are free to move up as buyers are forced to buy at higher prices. Supply has been withdrawn 

It will re appear again
When it does consolidation is likely 
More later but hope this helps


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## rogue1 (5 January 2019)

tech/a said:


> Just in Perth for a couple of days so no charts to help
> 
> But
> Markets or stock cannot rise if supply in large amounts is evident
> ...





Ok, that's starting to make more sense to me.

there's basically a balance between supply and demand that affects the market price, so when it skews heavily towards one way it becomes unbalanced, causing the price to shoot upwards.

Tell me if this analogy holds up.

Supply and demand are like two sides on a set of scales. If demand is heavier than supply then price goes up. If demand is lighter than supply then price goes down. And if each side is really out of balance it swings up or down by a large amount.

So in the case of high volume (weight) and unbalanced supply/demand, it swings by a large amount and at a rapid speed, but with low volume it moves slowly.

Am I getting close..?


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## tech/a (5 January 2019)

Yeeess there is a bit more 

I find it easier to think as supply controlling price 

No supply then demand will pay higher prices as supply withdraws
If there is plenty of supply then demand will withdraw and price will fall
If supply continues even if on low volume and demand is lower than the supply it will fall and vice verca 

Volume unless it is extreme has little effect.
Extreme volume and extreme range even if not seen together need to be looked at closely 

Not all high wide range bars to the up side are bullish 
Very often they are exhaustion of demand and very bearish

I will go through this with charts and situations later

Very very low volume in small consolidations are also very informative.


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## Joules MM1 (5 January 2019)

rogue1 said:


> Ok, that's starting to make more sense to me.
> 
> there's basically a balance between supply and demand that affects the market price, so when it skews heavily towards one way it becomes unbalanced, causing the price to shoot upwards.
> 
> ...




price requires supply to ascend if you agree that price is value, when there is no supply traders on the bid will reason that if they chase weak supply then they'll get stranded when they want to get out so stalemate occurs as bidders have a value level they wont go past

so that raises the obvious question : at what point does volume go from being thin to being extreme or 'heavy' ?

this is a relative exercise, relative to yesterdays volume, time of the day, time of year, the value zone youre in, which maybe determined by how much that price zone was transacted in the past, who's comming to do business, is there news pending that stops traders from committing with pending orders

the context of the volume may play a much larger role than merely the amount of volume, for example, in a strong constructive uptrend offers remain thin because they know that can get a better sell price that's true but that doesnt mean a lot of volume will chase as pro traders look to enter on a pullback ...that scenario is vastly different to a larger consolidation zone where different ideas of value changed overnight .....getting context and relativity in the trade can make a large difference to how you define your risk of entry ......not all sellers are exiting a long and not all sellers are selling to short, not all bidders are opening a position and not all bidders are closing a short.....

you cannot say at any one time that one group is dominant due to the two phases and the size of those phases (chop or trend) what you can do is observe when one group demand is higher by their volume allowing for fake stacking, you can observe when suddenly, relatively/comparatively, a group of sellers want to just get out or a group of buyers relatively/comparatively just have to get in, which requires you to decide on the context, however you make up that context, there is a story to the play, not just "more" volume, what made that volume show  up is not always important, sure, but, if you can give the unfolding game a criteria that makes sense to you based on previous observations then you are getting closer to knowing when to take action (entry and exit)

so you see, more sell volume does not always translate to lower prices, it may merely mean price cannot ascend due to a single player offloading and once that player has done their business then price may ascend, so you must decide exactly what the term balance is.......balance is always relative as it changes over time from seconds to days even out to calendar quarters and then you need to think of the context of that volume.....

i say, i think the only hard and fast rule about balance is that you, yourself, must first have the balance of not assuming only one game is so, that the markets are always in balance, there is only one spread* , for the players who are transacting at the time that you are transacting

*this still applies to a widening spread
my 2c


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## tech/a (5 January 2019)

Joules agree in most part


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## Joules MM1 (5 January 2019)

NoBStrading vid 

go to 1:07mins for a good example of how what's on screen does not define what's transacting in the auction


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## Joules MM1 (5 January 2019)

the key there is intent

and the question you can ask: were the offers pulled to entice nervy bidders to chase the offer allowing the offers to get best price without dumping cos we dont know if 500 offers were on trader who only wanted to shift 200 c's pulled the 300 to make a context which is also pulling players who jump on the momentum which is different to players who sit in the que patiently and forces them to make a decision if they think they cannot get "obvious" sell volume  .......so there's a game on there which is testing the players ....


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## rogue1 (7 January 2019)

How do you manually analyse price spread..?


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## just_jay (10 January 2019)

tech/a said:


> Would someone like to suggest the next 2 Preferably Trading with volume and say above $2 or 1
> and above $5 for the other.




Not quite $5 but I haven't made it very far in my watchlist review which is sorted by market cap. Just some observations. 

Also at critical juncture. Breakout pending or a triple top. 

I dont see anything exciting on the weekly chart apart from lower vol compared to recent weeks but a quick scan of other charts show a similiar pattern.


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## tech/a (11 February 2019)

I'm finding it difficult to put aside the time on this thread.
But I think I have a way of getting what I see in a chart across
by posting charts I consider worthy of watching/buying/selling/shorting
or adding to. Complete with comments. As they come up Ill post them up.


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## tech/a (11 February 2019)




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## tech/a (11 February 2019)




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## tech/a (13 February 2019)




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## tech/a (13 February 2019)

*I SPI!*


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## tech/a (13 February 2019)




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## tech/a (13 February 2019)




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## jjbinks (13 February 2019)

VTG looks good


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## Lone Wolf (13 February 2019)

Is there anything particularly interesting about ATS from a VSA view? The best time to get in was probably at the start of Feb, on the high vol push up making a new high, followed by a very small low volume pullback. Now we've seen extreme volume which buying overcame. Selling appears to have withdrawn.

Is there such a thing as too much volume? As in, extreme volume could be a one-off event rather than a meaningful shift in crowd mentality? I believe the answer is no, as whatever the reason, it still represents a lot of interest at this price. With the important part being how price reacts following that exchange.


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## tech/a (14 February 2019)

Very nice chart 
The volume control bar 4 bars back indicates 
Supply was absorbed. Following Low  volume 
Days in a tight flagish pattern are all indicators 
Of continuation. 
Parameters are 41c and 36c

There are many opportunities out there I certainly 
Dont post up every chart I see!


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## debtfree (14 February 2019)

@tech/a 
Thanks for your continued work in this area.
I noticed BID belongs to the Information Technology Sector. If you are aware of this please ignore my post.


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## tech/a (14 February 2019)

Ha
Where did I get the Energy sector from 
Think I was looking at another liked BID chart better
Posted it but made the notation meant for the other chart.
IE it was from the Energy Sector.


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## Skate (14 February 2019)

tech/a said:


> Ha
> *Where did I get the Energy sector from *
> Think I was looking at another liked BID chart better
> Posted it but made the notation meant for the other chart.
> IE it was from the Energy Sector.




*Bid Energy *(the name is confusing)
Bid Energy is a Software company 




Skate.


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## tech/a (14 February 2019)

Sorry JJ
YES VTG also a nice prospect 
Target $1.75


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## tech/a (17 February 2019)

One I've been in for a while.
I post it up as something interesting has appeared
you can see how I have managed---the good and the BAD
of the trade.


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## kid hustlr (17 February 2019)

Tech,

Any thoughts on *INP* ?

Stock was almost dead but has seen a strong turn around in recent weeks/months.

Given the nature/steepness of the fall would you hold back on this one or is the current price action enticing enough?


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## tech/a (19 February 2019)

INP my apologies for the late reply.


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## tech/a (19 February 2019)

EAR

The best case here is the high volume Control bar of yesterday becomes support
going forward
But it could just as easily become resistance. The next few days will tell.


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## tech/a (19 February 2019)

A follow up on charts helps understand a few things i put in place. *Like a buy trigger.*


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## tech/a (19 February 2019)

BUB never triggered now out of watchlist


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## debtfree (19 February 2019)

Thanks for the charts @tech/a  and keep buying EAR if you will, I need all the help I can get at the moment against those buggers in the Monthly Comp


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## tech/a (19 February 2019)

VRL going along as planned.


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## tech/a (19 February 2019)

Exited CHC


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## tech/a (19 February 2019)

GEM as it should be!


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## just_jay (19 February 2019)

tech/a said:


> Just had a look at the 15 min chart to see if there was any support.




@tech/a you often mention "supply has left the building" and I take this to mean a reduction in volume on the daily chart. How do you apply this to 15min charts (you mentioned this in the BIN thread) given vol tends to be most fluid at opening and closing.


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## tech/a (19 February 2019)

I’ll pull a BIN chart when I have a chance and have a look
I think the Supply has left the building is one of Greggles 

Supply can be withdrawn 
And evident 
But it never goes.


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## just_jay (19 February 2019)

@tech/a sorry, "the supply has left the building" comment is from the CHC chart you posted on the 10th Feb. I was trying to figure out if you apply the same principles for supply (on daily chart) vs supply/support on 15min chart. They may very well be 2 different things in your view but I was unsure. 

Could you perhaps post a 15min chart that you have used to identify areas of support as an example please?


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## tech/a (19 February 2019)

just_jay said:


> @tech/a sorry, "the supply has left the building" comment is from the CHC chart you posted on the 10th Feb. I was trying to figure out if you apply the same principles for supply (on daily chart) vs supply/support on 15min chart. They may very well be 2 different things in your view but I was unsure.
> 
> Could you perhaps post a 15min chart that you have used to identify areas of support as an example please?




Ill use CHC

I was unlucky on this one.
Stopped by a cent and just left it
without having a good look.
I haven't looked at the lower frame chart 
for a long time.

Im sure my in attention will be very clear on it!


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## tech/a (21 February 2019)




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## tech/a (21 February 2019)




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## tech/a (21 February 2019)




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## jjbinks (21 February 2019)

Hi TA,

Whats your thoughts on Polynovo. Seems to rising on volume which his (Slightly) higher than recent average.


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## jjbinks (21 February 2019)

Also with INP if you were to trade the reversal out of the VC zone would you put initial stop just below VC box at 7c?


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## tech/a (21 February 2019)

INP I expect the VC bar to remain as strong support 
Price was held high and a break below would be unusual
Particularly short term stop around 8.5 c


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## tech/a (25 February 2019)

GEM
Stopped this morning.
One of the benefits of moving the stop up.
Unexpected plummet. Could have been a lot worse.


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## Ann (25 February 2019)

tech/a said:


> GEM
> Stopped this morning.
> One of the benefits of moving the stop up.
> Unexpected plummet. Could have been a lot worse.



Using the concept of volume, which I am now going to put a major focus and push into...be ready for many questions and a few contributions like this next one on GEM.
If I had been watching GEM and volumes, I would have looked at EqiVolume. This really raised a red flag. Big volume resistance right at this level. No surprises with the fall if you look at EV. I do glance at EV on occasions, probably not as often as I should.


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## tech/a (26 February 2019)

below is a group of charts which have what I consider excellent patterns.
I haven't had time to mark them up as I usually do but Thought they were
of interest before today's trading.


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## tech/a (26 February 2019)




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## tech/a (26 February 2019)




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## tech/a (26 February 2019)




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## tech/a (26 February 2019)




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## tech/a (26 February 2019)




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## tech/a (26 February 2019)




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## debtfree (26 February 2019)

Thanks @tech/a for the charts and also the time you put into them.

Just in case someone wants to know, Tech/a 1st chart today is IFL


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## tech/a (26 February 2019)

Thanks DF


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## just_jay (26 February 2019)

@tech/a I'll have a go at marking up some of your charts. Let me know if I am on the right track.


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## tech/a (26 February 2019)

Pretty good job jj

Ill mark it up when I get a chance but you chart highlighted some great examples
I have marked them. There really is a story and today being such a bearish day sees
a lot of these stocks holding up pretty well.


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## just_jay (26 February 2019)

Trying a different setup (aka not my usual BO HR).


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## just_jay (26 February 2019)

tech/a said:


> Pretty good job jj
> 
> Ill mark it up when I get a chance but you chart highlighted some great examples
> I have marked them. There really is a story and today being such a bearish day sees
> ...




So, high vol clusters without a corresponding downmove in price action can be seen as bullish, whereas high vol clusters and big moves down are very bearish.


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## tech/a (26 February 2019)

Not quite that easy
I’ll need more time to work through this 
Just about to train for 3 hrs so won’t get a chance tonight


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## tech/a (2 March 2019)

just_jay said:


> So, high vol clusters without a corresponding downmove in price action can be seen as bullish, whereas high vol clusters and big moves down are very bearish.




*I will have a chance to answer this tomorrow.*

VTG Going along nicely


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## jjbinks (2 March 2019)

Hi TA,

Do you still trade DAX or FTSE Futures?
Trying to try implement volume with technical signals into futures but finding it much harder than stocks, where I mainly look at break outs. 
I think intra day shorts are easier to trade if you can find them. 

Thanks
JJBinks


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## tech/a (2 March 2019)

DAX JJ a couple of times a week


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## tech/a (3 March 2019)

just_jay said:


> So, high vol clusters without a corresponding downmove in price action can be seen as bullish, whereas high vol clusters and big moves down are very bearish.




*So Lets talk volumes

What constitutes volume of interest *

Volume 5 x or more than the average daily volume over a month.
Or Under the same value. The bigger the better but anything well 
over our under a normal volume should be investigated.

First thing we have to look at is where it is ------
*
Context of Volume in a chart.*

(1) High volume and in particular if it is also supported by a gap and range
indicates a great deal of effort to move in a particular direction. (Bullish OR bearish.)
See labelled (1) This generally occurs after a longer period of consolidation.
In The bar labelled (2) we can see a smaller testing consolidation after the strong
move up. At the high of the range of the consolidation we can clearly (NOW) see
accumulation as Supply is met with Strong buying. The next bar rises easily and if you follow
the trend UP you'll notice the Dance of Volume as the stock rises and contraction of volume in
consolidations. When you are in a move this is what you want to see.

Look now at Bars (3,4,5,6) These bars show that supply is not taking part in the consolidation and until
it does price will remain at levels around the high prior to consolidation. This will also occur in Bearish 
down moves of any depth.

So this first *CONTEXT* is in a bullish initial move.




*The next is in a continuation of a move.* Note that moves can move either bullishly OR bearishly WITHOUT
extreme volume or range. The exercise here is to talk about those times when volume is evident and is
in enough quantity for us to take immediate notice.


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## tech/a (3 March 2019)

*Patterns *
and in particular tight and less than 20 periods (1 min to a Week)
Play important roles in Volume and range either within OR breaking 
out of them.
Look for and monitor tight consolidations.

*Continuation Volume





Next

" V " Bars and Patterns.
*


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## tech/a (3 March 2019)

*Special Note
*
Volume will often Pre empt a move in either direction particularly
if there is little range. *REVERSAL* volume bars are at first difficult to spot.
And can be mis judged as accumulation or distribution when in fact is *EXHAUSTION.*
*(Of either **supply** or Demand)
*
This becomes more evident during the discussion next.


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## tech/a (3 March 2019)

*"V" Bars and Patterns
*
Much more to come on this topic as it is an important one.
Not only found at Tops and Bottoms these patterns can and 
do occur in what appears to be middle of moves.

Like a great deal of Volume anomalies you will often find a *CATALYST

When you see Excessive volume always check for a Catalyst.
Often this wont appear for a few days --- initially leaving you
without rhyme nor reason!


*


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## tech/a (3 March 2019)

All I have time for Today 
The Duck will return.


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## just_jay (4 March 2019)

@tech/a, I struggle to interpret every single bar, particularly once I have entered a trade. It becomes all the harder to attempt to read each bar objectively. There are often conflicting "story" bars next to one another when it comes to PA and volume analysis.

In this chart below, you have pointed out a low volume day prior to "a.". However, on the day of "a.", volume increased a fair bit and price closed at the low. Both bars had a similiar range and I would have viewed bar "a." as bearish. Yet, the day after, there was a gap up, albeit on lower volume. I would still not have viewed this bar as particularly bullish. In such situations, are you simply waiting until you get a confirmation such as "b." before you read the "story" as bullish?


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## tech/a (4 March 2019)

Yes I totally understand 
Each bar is NOT a signal 
Each bar is an indication of what is happening 
You would be aware of the lack of supply and as you say
Be suspicious of the next bar seeing supply return.

But as the next bar gaps up on little volume you have confirmation that
The last of the supply appears to be exhausted.

Bar 2 would have been a buy.

Hope this helps


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## tech/a (5 March 2019)

just j
Do you have a chart you would like to follow in real time?


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## just_jay (5 March 2019)

Perhap a chart that ranges and one that has high vol today. GUD which has broken out of its range last week, but I didnt see the chart until today. I would place buy limit at 12.97 provided there is sufficient vol at close.


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## just_jay (5 March 2019)

APA. Dont really know how to read this chart. 4 days ago, price seems to have bounced off the VCB from Aug'18. Price today closed off low around support at 9.82 and vol is fairly high. It's possible that it is at an area of supply (Sept - Oct 18) so those traders who bought then are panicking today and selling, but buying has also stepped in today to allow a close off the lows.


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## tech/a (6 March 2019)

JJ Firstly GUD


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## tech/a (6 March 2019)

And APA


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## just_jay (6 March 2019)

Thanks @tech/a I'll try to apply these concepts to my future charts.


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## tech/a (7 March 2019)

JJ Follow up after yesterdays trading.

*I will continue with my thoughts on volume 
as I get more time in the thread it self.




*


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## tech/a (7 March 2019)




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## tech/a (7 March 2019)

Just some further notes on APA.

There is no wide range bar supporting any move with very high volume 
in this current pattern.
It can also be accumulation (Doubtful) but a break with some range and volume
out of the influence of the V/C bar one way or the other will send a clear signal.

Just a cautionary note. The price action is currently an indication of whats happening.
Not a signal---*it will come and it will be clear.*


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## just_jay (7 March 2019)

tech, re your mark up on APA's chart "bearish volume control". Is this in reference to the VCB on the 5th of March, and how yesterday's bar is testing the bottom of that particular VCB with volume that not very inspirational?

re GUD, it has broken out of short term resistence, on fairly high volume (I just compared hourly charts over the last few days) in morning trade. I'll post some notes on it at close, hopefully before you do your analysis.


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## tech/a (7 March 2019)

Yes 5th
The rectangle is a day early for clarity only it’s tge top and bottom that is important in these lower range bars 

Position in the box is more important in wide range bars.
GUD has traded past the trigger I set


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## just_jay (7 March 2019)

GUD. I wouldn't have bought today even though it broke resistance on reasonable vol. The closing price off the highs looks bearish to me (or rather dont look bullish enough).




APA. Average range, decent vol for an upmove. No buy signals to me. Wait and see. 



Looking forward to hearing your views.


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## just_jay (7 March 2019)

tech, question about AD8. This was a paper trade and I would have entered the market on the 20th of Feb (day after earnings). I set my stop at 4.39 and TP at 5.21 for a RR of 1. According to my pretty diagram below, I would have taken profit on the 27th as it technically triggered my sell limit. The bar on that day also started to look a bit like a buying climax and I would have sold at close. How would have managed this trade if you entered on the 20th Feb?

P.S. Missed the extremely high vol bar yesterday. =(


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## just_jay (7 March 2019)

some after market trading. charts updated.


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## tech/a (7 March 2019)

Will continue to follow the charts.
GUD would be now traded.
APA still waiting


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## tech/a (7 March 2019)




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## just_jay (7 March 2019)

tech/a said:


> GUD would be now traded.




tech/a, GUD closed in the bottom third of today's bar. Does this mean you are not placing much importance on this given the high vol and BO? Are there situations when this approach would not apply (assuming strong vol and BO)?


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## Wysiwyg (8 March 2019)

Would you say most transactions in one thrust generally take place at the top and bottom of swings?


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## tech/a (8 March 2019)

just_jay said:


> tech/a, GUD closed in the bottom third of today's bar. Does this mean you are not placing much importance on this given the high vol and BO? Are there situations when this approach would not apply (assuming strong vol and BO)?




jj it’s a buy according to my testing. You are correct the bar in its own right closes off its high 
It Also closed above the trigger. It could reverse today and if it does it will be range and volume that will determine what I’d do. Again all price action is indicative of what’s happening.
That indication isn’t as clear as a break out on good volume with wide range thrusting it out of the pattern so a 7/10 a—— b or c trade. But as we are following it win or lose, This is how I’d trade it based upon my own testing and research.



Wysiwyg said:


> Would you say most transactions in one thrust generally take place at the top and bottom of swings?




Wysi
Most yes some occur in the middle of prolonged moves 
Quite a few happen just before a move tops or bottoms out 
A bit like skidding to a stop or dropping the clutch from a standing start!


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## just_jay (8 March 2019)

tech/a said:


> jj it’s a buy according to my testing.




ok tech/a. Thank you for clarifying. My methodology up to now is to look for generally grade A trades. This limits my opportunities a fair bit. I start following some grade B/ C trades as you call them.


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## tech/a (8 March 2019)

just_jay said:


> ok tech/a. Thank you for clarifying. My methodology up to now is to look for generally grade A trades. This limits my opportunities a fair bit. I start following some grade B/ C trades as you call them.




You’ll soon notice how often A grade grades turn into D trades and B and C turn into As

I use the “ well fuk me “ indicator
In these cases


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## tech/a (8 March 2019)




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## tech/a (8 March 2019)




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## tech/a (10 March 2019)

So as patterns and volume plays out it is important to follow
the charts we have made initial observations to see how it HAS
played and now how it is likely to play 
Below are the 9 charts that we have recently had a look at.
You'll now see (I hope) what I see as I read the charts in my watch list
Adding comments or deleting prospects from the lists.
I keep the notations though in case a chart is filtered out in a search.
Which often happens. Saves a lot of work and indicates how accurate 
the analysis was.

VTG
INP
CHC
BOT
AD8
A2M
BHP
WGX
IFL


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## tech/a (10 March 2019)




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## tech/a (10 March 2019)




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## tech/a (10 March 2019)




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## tech/a (10 March 2019)




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## tech/a (10 March 2019)




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## tech/a (10 March 2019)




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## tech/a (10 March 2019)




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## tech/a (10 March 2019)




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## tech/a (10 March 2019)




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## tech/a (10 March 2019)

*Just a quick survey---are people getting anything out of this.*
*Would you like me to continue when I can? *


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## $20shoes (10 March 2019)

Tech I love this stuff. I should comment more as it really suits some of the more discretionary trades I make and I really get a lot out your posts. Keep up the good work IMO.


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## tech/a (11 March 2019)

Like this Lithium chart


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## greggles (11 March 2019)

tech/a said:


> *Just a quick survey---are people getting anything out of this.*
> *Would you like me to continue when I can? *




I'm finding it very useful thanks tech. I appreciate your efforts and would like to see the thread continue. It's turning into a great technical analysis resource.


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## BlindSquirrel (11 March 2019)

tech/a said:


> *Just a quick survey---are people getting anything out of this.*
> *Would you like me to continue when I can? *



Yes, please continue. 
Just a quick noob Q though, I've tried searching for an answer but no luck; what does v/c stand for? Volume/consolidation?


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## tech/a (11 March 2019)

Blind Squirrel
*
Volume Control
*
Its  referring to a bar with very high volume.
It can take a number of forms
Wide Range High Volume finishing on a high (Bullish)
OR Finishing on a low (Bearish).
Very high volume on shorter bars (Less range) Indicate 
Distribution (Supply) or Accumulation (Absorption of supply
buy demand)
Wide range bars with closes mid way or towards the lower quartile
Indicate a slant toward Bullish or bearishness dependent on the 
place of the bar in the context of the chart. 

Note Than to read volume and Range you need very liquid stocks.

V/C bars Typically will trade 10 X the volume average over 20 days.

*Context* within a chart will give you indications of what the V/C bar consists of 
Meaning 
Supply or demand over coming Supply
Continued Supply over coming Demand 

Found just before turning points in Up and Down moves.
AT turning points in up and down moves.
Before or during consolidation pauses both long and short.

I'm hoping that posting enough examples in very different situations will
help those interested in finding and identifying opportunities when they 
occur.
How to trade winners and of course losers.

You'll note that the V/C bar's range often acts as support and resistance.
I find that area most reliable if trading doesn't go more than 50% of the 
range of the V/C bar. Lower and that Support or resistance is very weak.
These areas I shade on the chart.
*They are Boxed including the preceding day for clarity so you can see the bar!!*


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## jjbinks (11 March 2019)

Hi TA,

Definitely learning something new from each chart you post.

Would love if you can post some any future trades. (I find it really hard to apply volume in analysis for futures contracts). (Maybe I can post some stuff and get your feedback?)

Thanks
JJ


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## tech/a (11 March 2019)

OK Ill have a look 
Im not trading Futures right now 
and wont be over the nights this week.
BUT
Can have a look at the *SPI* during the day on say a 15 min chart.
Tues/Thurs or Fri--Wed I"m on a golf course!


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## Smurf1976 (12 March 2019)

tech/a said:


> *Just a quick survey---are people getting anything out of this.*
> *Would you like me to continue when I can? *



Extremely interesting and informative.


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## tech/a (12 March 2019)

Blind Squirrel

I was going to shorten your Handle to B/S
but thought what would be very unfair!


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## barney (12 March 2019)

tech/a said:


> *Like this Lithium chart*




Been a couple of "L" stocks starting to look interesting ……  In your travels Tech, you might keep a lazy eye on* LPD* …

Had its first spike after a sustained downtrend and currently in consolidation mode …. 

The spike was solid on good volume so I expect it will move again.


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## tech/a (12 March 2019)

Yes thanks will keep an eye on it.


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## just_jay (13 March 2019)

nice vol and range on GUD. tracking along nicely in your books =)

APA. Testing the bottom of VCB from 5th March. Some resistance at 9.83. Wait and see?


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## mikeroxoz (14 March 2019)

Reading with interest Ducky and keen to learn so please keep them coming


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## tech/a (17 March 2019)

So this week we continue with the 9 Charts we are following
and the 2 charts suggested by others GUD and APA.

Reminder that all these notations are made the week before movement and the idea is that
people following can see what occurred and learn how to interpret price action for any chart
that is being traded or on a watch list. I also keep all notations for clarity.


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## tech/a (17 March 2019)

*GUD*


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## tech/a (17 March 2019)




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## tech/a (17 March 2019)




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## tech/a (17 March 2019)




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## tech/a (17 March 2019)




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## tech/a (17 March 2019)




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## tech/a (17 March 2019)




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## tech/a (17 March 2019)




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## tech/a (17 March 2019)




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## tech/a (17 March 2019)




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## tech/a (17 March 2019)




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## barney (20 March 2019)

barney said:


> Been a couple of "L" stocks starting to look interesting ……   keep a lazy eye on* LPD* …




LPD getting that follow up attention I suspected it might ….. On the move today.


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## just_jay (22 March 2019)

Not sure what triggered the selloff in GUD yesterday. I am guessing this trade would be have exited yesterday, at B/E?


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## tech/a (22 March 2019)

No I think I’d have been stopped had I traded it


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## tech/a (31 March 2019)

Its been 2 weeks since I updated the charts we are following 
A lot has happened The only one not shown is BOT which is 
out of the picture. There are some interesting charts below 
This weeks comments are in *BLACK


*


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## tech/a (31 March 2019)




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## tech/a (31 March 2019)




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## tech/a (31 March 2019)




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## tech/a (31 March 2019)




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## tech/a (31 March 2019)




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## tech/a (31 March 2019)




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## tech/a (31 March 2019)




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## tech/a (31 March 2019)

*Some new ones with GUD

Ill check the others Bi Weekly
From now.*


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## tech/a (31 March 2019)




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## tech/a (31 March 2019)




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## tech/a (31 March 2019)




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## tech/a (31 March 2019)




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## BlindSquirrel (19 February 2020)

if I may pick your brain @tech/a, do you have an opinion on this retreating breakout?


My inclination is to expect it to bounce off that previous resistance that would become a new support.


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## tech/a (18 September 2021)

Thought Id move some of the analysis and trading discussion back here.

*Have you ever found a chart like THIS and thought BUGGA missed it!
Im too late to the party??


*

Want some ideas on how to minimize risk and still get a piece 
of any up and coming action?


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## tech/a (18 September 2021)

A great example


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## bux2000 (18 September 2021)

Hi Tech,

I know you are probably getting sick of me by now .....but........but.......  

I am not sure if you have been looking at it, but CXL is at an interesting point.

bux


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## tech/a (19 September 2021)

bux2000 said:


> Hi Tech,
> 
> I know you are probably getting sick of me by now .....but........but.......
> 
> ...




CXL is very clear ---Bux


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## bux2000 (19 September 2021)

Hi Tech,

And thank you again for taking the time to answer and pass on your experience, I will leave you alone now for a while  .

It has been for me a very interesting Month so far .......lost some of my gains toward the end of last week ............. but now I have said that..... it has got to turn to poop .

It will be an interesting start to my week, and I hope yours too.

All the very best

bux


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## tugga82 (13 October 2021)

Hi there, why do you let your winning trade become a losing one? Shouldnt you not be setting stops to protect profits?


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## tech/a (13 October 2021)

tugga82 said:


> Hi there, why do you let your winning trade become a losing one? Shouldnt you not be setting stops to protect profits?




Where do you get the idea that there isn't a stop in place.
I dont think your understanding the* SETUPS* shown in the charts above.
They are pre cursors to* POSSIBLE* trades. Haven't followed up on any of them in this thread
so if your looking at current charts then no doubt some would have triggered a trade and
that would have had buy and stop criteria and some wouldn't have triggered any trade.

Further Im not a fan of setting a stop only to passively watch price fall to it, I like to Ratchet
up my stops dependent on price action after a trade is triggered.

My apologies to all for not following up.


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## tugga82 (13 October 2021)

tech/a said:


> Where do you get the idea that there isn't a stop in place.
> I dont think your understanding the* SETUPS* shown in the charts above.
> They are pre cursors to* POSSIBLE* trades. Haven't followed up on any of them in this thread
> so if your looking at current charts then no doubt some would have triggered a trade and
> ...



I meant to reply to the person who posted above me about going in the red after having a green month. I like to sell half my position into strength and then will trail my stops for the remaining half of my position if it works in my favour.


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## bux2000 (13 October 2021)

Hi @tugga82 

There are some very interesting posts in the Buy and hold vs. active portfolio management thread that are worth reading.

All the best
bux


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