# Victorian Fires



## sam76 (7 February 2009)

updates here.

http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/incidents/incident_summary.htm

listen to your local ABC for updates.

It's very hairy out there at the moment

be careful.


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## knocker (7 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> updates here.
> 
> http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/incidents/incident_summary.htm
> 
> ...




Also hot, 46.4 before. And windy :-(
  makes it even worse 

Good luck to people in Kilmore and Horsham and Dandenongs


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## knocker (7 February 2009)

Actually stepping outside all  see is a huge plume of smoke bellowing into the air. Maybe good luck to me also lol


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## sam76 (7 February 2009)

*FDI was 308 today at 2:30 in Ballarat

Scale only goes up to 100 (extreme)!!!*

nasty stuff

change due any minute.

(you can the people of Coleraine to that list)


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## profit off it (7 February 2009)

This is the view from my window in Melbourne CBD. Very hot, very windy and very brown.


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## GumbyLearner (7 February 2009)

knocker said:


> Also hot, 46.4 before. And windy :-(
> makes it even worse
> 
> Good luck to people in Kilmore and Horsham and Dandenongs




Got a call from Mum on Thursday night. She moved down to Wilsons Prom because her house was surrounded by fires. I hope the house is still there next week.


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## GumbyLearner (7 February 2009)

Hopefully it wont be as bad as February 16, 1983

The Heroes of Ash Wednesday

http://members.ozemail.com.au/~tammii/ASH WEDNESDAY.htm


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## Julia (7 February 2009)

I so hope everyone in the vicinity of the fires stays safe.  I've never seen a real bushfire.  Must be utterly terrifying.
This is a very savage country.


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## Smurf1976 (7 February 2009)

Julia said:


> I so hope everyone in the vicinity of the fires stays safe.  I've never seen a real bushfire.  Must be utterly terrifying.
> This is a very savage country.



I've had that "fire raging straight toward you and the whole town is about to go up in smoke" experience and it's one I'll never forget. 

It's right up there with any major life event. Indeed it tops most of them even though, thankfully, the wind dropped just in time and relatively few houses were damaged. I never want that experience again. 

Best of luck to everyone in Victoria.


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## Seaking (7 February 2009)

My thoughts are with all of you who are in the way of these fires. I'll take floods and the odd cyclone any day compared with what I have seen on the TV news.

For those things out there that deliberately start these fires, maybe if caught a part of the punishment should be burning every possession they own and hold dear in front of them..


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## Smurf1976 (8 February 2009)

Spare a thought for the impact this will have on nature, wildlife etc.

Whilst most homes made of bricks and mortar will hopefully be saved, those in trees, hollow logs or underground - where the animals live - are being totally destroyed by the fires.

Likewise their food and water is wiped out too. Many animals that survive the fire end up dead due to lack of shelter, food and water.

I don't want to get political here, but forget commercial forestry, dams, mines and so on. The impact of major fires makes all that seem rather trivial in terms of animals killed, area of land impacted etc. This is a disaster, no doubt about it.


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## GumbyLearner (8 February 2009)

True Smurf.

Plenty of marsupials and other flaora/fauna will be destroyed by the bushfires! 

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/new...s-internet-fame/2009/02/05/1233423371375.html


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## Judd (8 February 2009)

At least 14 dead and probably more - estimated to be around 40 dead.

Sympathies and hope extended to all involved.

The smell of burnt flesh is not pleasant.  Lara bushfires in the 1960's.


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## MrBurns (8 February 2009)

25 dead now maybe 40.

Somethings not right here, with all we know about bushfires how can this happen surely someone should have told these people to get out, *ordered *them out.


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## GumbyLearner (8 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> 25 dead now maybe 40.
> 
> Somethings not right here, with all we know about bushfires how can this happen surely someone should have told these people to get out, *ordered *them out.




That's humanity Mr.Burns.

Surely someone has told you to get out of holding before or some other form of property? 

It's terrible to watch your life go up in smoke.

But we are all born in a sunburnt country. As Banjo would say!


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## sam76 (8 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> 25 dead now maybe 40.
> 
> Somethings not right here, with all we know about bushfires how can this happen surely someone should have told these people to get out, *ordered *them out.




People can't be made to leave their houses in Victoria.

From memory it's just NSW.

That's why the CFA puts so much effort and money into teaching/helping people to make bushfire plans.

if you want more information look at the link or send me a pm

http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/residents/programs/cfg.htm


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## GumbyLearner (8 February 2009)

80-90% of Marysville burnt to crisp according to BBC News.

What a lush beautiful world to suffer.

I vividly remember twenty years ago feeding possums citrus fruits by my palm at the local falls in Marysville. 

How terrible it's all been engulfed with fire!

Time we look more into land managment in Victoria and consult the indigenous people on what we should do!


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## sam76 (8 February 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> 80-90% of Marysville burnt to crisp according to BBC News.
> 
> What a lush beautiful world to suffer.
> 
> ...




There are currently 8 going fires over 1000ha.


Further update on the Marysville township:
We understand that everyone is safe in Marysville and are assembled at Gallipoli Park. Emergency response crews are working on getting emergency services into the town; however crews were experiencing difficulty gaining access to the town due to trees falling across the road. People are reminded to remain at Gallipoli Park until advised by DSE or CFA authorities that it is safe to leave. Vic SES and the Red Cross delivered food and drink to the residents and fire fighters who are sheltering at the Gallipoli Park relief centre early this morning. Residents will be escorted from the area when it is safe to do so.


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## Prospector (8 February 2009)

We were just talking about the 'stay and fight' or 'pack and go' options that people in SA are given.  I dont get the 'stay and fight' thought.  OK, some people are lucky, or more likely the fire misses them; but if you are caught within the full rage, you have no chance.  Can't people see the bare black stubble that remains when your house is in the direct line.  Whether your house is saved from bushfire is more due to good luck than whether you are there to fight it because once you are in the path of the firestorm there is nothing you can do.

So surely it is best to evacuate well before it gets to that stage.  Like, hours before and not the last minute.  They interviewed someone last night who said that they had always planned to stay and fight.  But then the shocking reality of what that actually meant, hit home and they evacuated.

RIP to all those people who have lost.


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## GumbyLearner (8 February 2009)

Bunyip National Park

When that's under control..people can breathe a sigh of relief..but not yet!


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## Smurf1976 (8 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> We were just talking about the 'stay and fight' or 'pack and go' options that people in SA are given.  I dont get the 'stay and fight' thought.  OK, some people are lucky, or more likely the fire misses them; but if you are caught within the full rage, you have no chance.  Can't people see the bare black stubble that remains when your house is in the direct line.  Whether your house is saved from bushfire is more due to good luck than whether you are there to fight it because once you are in the path of the firestorm there is nothing you can do.



The advice given in Tas is that you should stay and defend the property only if you have properly prepared. Otherwise, evacuate well before (hours) the fire arrives.

Properly prepared means things like having cleared all vegetation for quite some distance around the house, made the house itself as fire proof as possible, having proper clothing, having a means to put out spot fires etc.

The reasoning behind the advice is that if you've done everything right then the most useful thing you can do is put out any spot fires that occur in the house roof or inside the house (from radiant heat). If you've properly prepared, it's those small fires that are likely to destroy the house rather than it becomingpart of the main fire front.

I should point out that the vast majority of homes are not prepared in the way recommended and in that situation evacuating would be a sensible idea. I'm not sure about the other states, but in Tas if you call the TFS they will send you a DVD which explains exactly what you need to do to be properly prepared etc. It's a lot more than just filling a few gutters with water and raking up the leaves...


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## sam76 (8 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> We were just talking about the 'stay and fight' or 'pack and go' options that people in SA are given.  I dont get the 'stay and fight' thought.  OK, some people are lucky, or more likely the fire misses them; but if you are caught within the full rage, you have no chance.  Can't people see the bare black stubble that remains when your house is in the direct line.  Whether your house is saved from bushfire is more due to good luck than whether you are there to fight it because once you are in the path of the firestorm there is nothing you can do.
> 
> So surely it is best to evacuate well before it gets to that stage.  Like, hours and hours before and not the last minute.  They interviewed someone last night who said that they had always planned to stay and fight.  But then the shocking reality of what that actually meant, hit home and they evacuated.
> 
> RIP to all those people who have lost.




A *well prepared *house is fantastic protection for a family in the event of a fire.

Of course the only 100% guarentee is leaving well before any threat.

There are three ways a house willl burn.

Embers
Radiant heat 
Direct flame contact

It's is very possible to protect your home from all three but you need to be prepared.

You need a written plan that includes the strengths and weaknesses of your property, jobs to be performed by members of the house etc...

You need to have prepared your property for the possibility of a fire - it's no good staying and defending if you haven't readied your house for attack.

People don't realise that the fire front is only there for 5-10 minutes.

The times leading up to the front are spent patrolling and putting out embers.

go inside when it gets too hot

once the front has passed go outside and begin putting any fires on/around your house out.

Dont forget the roof space.

It takes a decent amount of time for a fire to take hold in your house - long enough for a well prepared person/s to put them ouit safely

House protect people and people protect houses.


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## sam76 (8 February 2009)

lol

great minds, hey Smurf.


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## sam76 (8 February 2009)

I have access to fire plans that include;

*If you stay*

pre season checks
day of the fire
fire front
after the front has passed

and 

*If you decide to leave*


i'm more than happy to send people infrmation kits if requested.

You will, of course, have to adapt them to your own situations/environment


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## GumbyLearner (8 February 2009)

The 'neighbour' principle is great. If they are willing to listen.


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## M34N (8 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> There are currently 8 going fires over 1000ha.
> 
> 
> Further update on the Marysville township:
> We understand that everyone is safe in Marysville and are assembled at Gallipoli Park. Emergency response crews are working on getting emergency services into the town; however crews were experiencing difficulty gaining access to the town due to trees falling across the road. People are reminded to remain at Gallipoli Park until advised by DSE or CFA authorities that it is safe to leave. Vic SES and the Red Cross delivered food and drink to the residents and fire fighters who are sheltering at the Gallipoli Park relief centre early this morning. Residents will be escorted from the area when it is safe to do so.




Marysville is wiped out, picture below from ABC TV. I was driving home last night and heard the news on the radio and have been keeping an eye on this since the morning; devastating to say the least. The whole Kinglake-Kilmore area is fairly dense with forest and bush so it's no surprise so much has gone up so quickly.

Good luck to those remaining and RIP to those that have died.


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## Prospector (8 February 2009)

Yes, I agree with the 'Properly Prepared' issue guys.  The thing was this woman was properly prepared (she was wearing overalls, the hat etc) and their house was prepared according to the principles, but she said when she heard the roaring noise, saw the thick black wall of smoke and saw the flames, she realised she wasn't mentally prepared for what it meant.  So she left and was lucky she didnt get trapped.

So how about the mental preparation to stay, no-one seems to think of that.


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## MrBurns (8 February 2009)

The whole town on Marysville ?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/

I wonder how much of this is because greenies have prevented burning off/back.


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## Smurf1976 (8 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm not sure about the other states, but in Tas if you call the TFS they will send you a DVD which explains exactly what you need to do to be properly prepared etc.



Those not living in Tas and wanting the DVD can download it here (free). 

The other state fire brigades might also have something similar (?) if you want a physical DVD rather than a download.

http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/mysite/Show?pageId=tfsDVDDownloads


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## prawn_86 (8 February 2009)

**Mod note**

Abusive posts will not be tolerated in any situations. We understand the debates can get quite heated but please keep it friendly


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## CAB SAV (8 February 2009)

Stone the crowds, thought I was seeing things. Surely the Bendigo race meeting being held today is not in the Bendigo in Vic. ****e, I luv a punt, but.


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## M34N (8 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> The whole town on Marysville ?
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/
> 
> I wonder how much of this is because greenies have prevented burning off/back.




Yep looks like the whole town (or at the least the vast majority) is now gone, very fortunate no-one has been killed there. Another picture attached, from another article at the Herald Sun:






There's also an online map thanks to Google Maps showing all the fire locations. Sad to report 35 confirmed dead now, I think after this aftermath they should seriously consider enforcing towns be evacuated if there is ever a fire threat, this is getting very tragic and having so many people die is just too much to ignore and do nothing about.

I also just came back from a drive to my parents place in Berwick, there has been road closures all across Narre Warren North and Harkaway with police diverting traffic to other local streets, you can see burnt grassland near houses in Narre Warren North/Harkaway and it's indeed very eerie, some of these areas have gone from bush to urbanised within the past few years and a lot of houses I suspect were very unprepared and came literally metres from homes.


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## Smurf1976 (8 February 2009)

Time for both sides to calm down I think. Let's get the fires out first.

THEN we need to take a proper, scientific look at how such disasters can be avoided or at least made less likely in the future. 

Based on past studies, the outcomes of this will probably upset conservationists somewhat on an in principle basis. But it's speculation as to whether or not they'll agree or not with any recommendations made.

I can't really comment on the burning off issue, it's not something I know enough about. But based on past fires and studies that have been done, it can be said that anyone who has let the lawn go brown etc has made themselves a sitting duck in the event of a fire. That's certainly been what happened elsewhere (CSIRO research a few years ago).

So if there's a political debate coming out of all of this, and I'm not wanting to start one now, then it's going to be about increasing the water supply and putting a lot more on gardens in addition to any issues with burning off etc.

But let's get the fires out first. Then we'll worry how to prevent it happening again later (but that's not to say the message should be forgotten).

As for Marysville, it's a terribly sad situation to see a whole town destroyed. Not much more I can say really other than that I hope something is being done to help those who have survived. Is government doing enough? Or is there a need for some sort of donations to help the people affected?

The whole situation sounds awfully like what happened in Vic and SA in 1983 or in Tas in 1967. Total destruction.


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## Prospector (8 February 2009)

Maybe that is what has saved SA so far? We do a lot of controlled burn-offs in the hills and vulnerable areas.


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## MrBurns (8 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> Maybe that is what has saved SA so far? We do a lot of controlled burn-offs in the hills and vulnerable areas.




Yes thats what I was talking about before being interupted by, well I cant say or I'll get another infraction notice but use your imagination.

You either have to clear the area or burn back/ slash well in advance.

Greenies have prevented a lot of bush clearance and in some cases have been responsible for the result, I'm sure the subject will be brought up in the media.

when the forecast was for 45+C the area should have been cleared, the authorities know full well what might happen and I think they let everyone down.


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## Smurf1976 (8 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> when the forecast was for 45+C the area should have been cleared, the authorities know full well what might happen and I think they let everyone down.



Too late by that stage to be burning off since the last thing you want is a fire already started. If we're going to burn off then it needs to be done well before there is an actual fire threat.


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## MrBurns (8 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> Too late by that stage to be burning off since the last thing you want is a fire already started. If we're going to burn off then it needs to be done well before there is an actual fire threat.




Yes perhaps they'll learn for next time like they should have learned from the last time, 40 peope dead, it's just crazy.
In the meantime they should have evacuated or had early warning systems in place, I dont believe that in 2009 with all we know that loss of mass lives couldnt have been avoided.


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## Smurf1976 (8 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Yes perhaps they'll learn for next time like they should have learned from the last time, 40 peope dead, it's just crazy.
> In the meantime they should have evacuated or had early warning systems in place, I dont believe that in 2009 with all we know that loss of mass lives couldnt have been avoided.



Totally agreed with what you're saying. Problem is, most people don't take these things seriously until there's an outright disaster.

Humans forget quickly and thus we keep repeating the same mistakes over and over. We've had fires, unnecessary deaths, infrastructure shortages and so on for decades. As soon as we fix it, people take it for granted and stop doing what's needed to keep it fixed. Then it breaks again and we're back to fires, water rationing and all the rest.

There are thousands of examples. Humans do whatever is easiest at the time and thus fail to avoid entirely foreseeable problems. Those who are exceptions, who are calling for action, tend to be ridiculed or outright opposed. 

The time to prepare for fires is when there isn't a fire or an immediate threat of one. Just like the time to have built new water infrastructure is when there's lots of rain. Just like you need to improve your health while you're still reasonably healthy. Just like we need to fix power, transport etc while it's still working. Just like we needed to address the financial crisis when the insane borrowing and speculating was happening instead of waiting for it to blow up. Etc.


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## bunyip (8 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> 25 dead now maybe 40.
> 
> Somethings not right here, with all we know about bushfires how can this happen surely someone should have told these people to get out, *ordered *them out.





You can order them out all you want, but who's going to police it? The police and the fire authorities are run off their feet at such times....no way could they get around to every home and ensure that every single person obeyed a media-relayed directive to abandon their homes.
Sometimes a vehicle with a loud-speaker drives through the town and orders everyone out. But here again, how does it ever get policed....it's just not possible. 
There will always be some people who are convinced they can save their houses if they stay with them. Others who think, correctly in some cases, that staying home is safer than trying to get out via traffic-clogged roads that have burning trees falling over them. 
People have been found dead in burnt out cars that got trapped while trying to flee.


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## grace (8 February 2009)

Lots of innocent lives lost.  Controlled burning in winter - let it happen please.  How many more lives need to be lost before they wake up.  More extreme heat conditions yiyo coming.  Government needs to act here.


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## sam76 (8 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> So how about the mental preparation to stay, no-one seems to think of that.




It is a component of the Community Fire Guard meetings.


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## Prospector (8 February 2009)

We have burn offs in Winter and Spring.  We dont get much rain though, as I keep banging on about.  Usually all done by December 1st.  And I wondered who had been a naughty boy   Should have known.

The path of most fires can be predicted according to terrain and wind strength.  The time to run is not just before the fire hits; yet that is the time that most seem to make up their minds.  We evacuate in advance for floods, why on earth not for fires!  And why should CFS people risk their lives just to save someone's house?  Does anyone else think that is a poor choice of priority?


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## Happy (8 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> ..
> 
> The time to prepare for fires is when there isn't a fire or an immediate threat of one. Just like the time to have built new water infrastructure is when there's lots of rain. Just like you need to improve your health while you're still reasonably healthy. Just like we need to fix power, transport etc while it's still working. Just like we needed to address the financial crisis when the insane borrowing and speculating was happening instead of waiting for it to blow up. Etc.





Exactly, in case of preparation for fire we have to have on top of all other preparations place where we can hide away from radiant heat, with independent breathing air supply.

Several metres thick layer of soil can effectively stop radiant heat and air can provide couple of scuba diving bottles.

Dreaded asbestos is fantastic heat insulator and instead of ripping it up and burying, we could incorporate it sealed in some material to build fire-safe rooms several metres underground.


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## MrBurns (8 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> We have burn offs in Winter and Spring.  We dont get much rain though, as I keep banging on about.  Usually all done by December 1st.  And I wondered who had been a naughty boy   Should have known.
> 
> The path of most fires can be predicted according to terrain and wind strength.  The time to run is not just before the fire hits; yet that is the time that most seem to make up their minds.  We evacuate in advance for floods, why on earth not for fires!  And why should CFS people risk their lives just to save someone's house?  Does anyone else think that is a poor choice of priority?





Agree, why should they risk their lives to save property, it's just wrong, bomb them with water but if it's too dangerous just let them burn.

Bush fires can change direction without notice and move faster than you in a car or not, people should have been told to get the hell out of these places and at very least the clearing of bushland around townships has to be on the agenda from now on and the the greenies can go elsewhere for their power trips.


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## Agentm (8 February 2009)

i have family members in kinglake, they stayed and fought the fires off their home, lost sheds and all fencing but kept their house in the end. 

it went right over them.

plenty of homes on their road did not make it.. she describes one side of the road to kinglake "gone" the other side has some structures standing..

her husband is a senior fire officer and together the family fought the fire alone..

i am pleased the outcome was how it turned out for them, but i couldnt say how lucky they are... no power, no water, and no communication in the region with mobiles on home phones.. pretty scary stuff.. tougher than me im afraid..  amazing..


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## MrBurns (8 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> i have family members in kinglake, they stayed and fought the fires off their home, lost sheds and all fencing but kept their house in the end.
> 
> it went right over them.
> 
> ...




Thanks for sharing that, I'd say your relatives are very lucky indeed it could easily have been different, like for so many others.

Knowing bushfires and how they act I would have left, it's just too unpredictable.


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## Smurf1976 (8 February 2009)

I don't want to turn this into another one of Smurf's power threads, but:



> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/08/2485586.htm?section=australia
> 
> The incident controller for the Glendonald Road fires near Traralgon, Steven Walls, says there is still a risk the fire could reach the Loy Yang Power Station



Now, Loy Yang (including the gas turbines on the same site) accounts for about a third of Victoria's generating capacity and nearly half its actual production of electricity. 

If the plant were destroyed, then we'll have a major power shortage for the next several years. $ billions to re-build it plus the rather obvious risk if the associated coal mine catches fire.

WHY wasn't a decent fire break been put in place around such a critical piece of national infrastructure before there was an actual fire? It's not as though there's no precedent for Latrobe Valley power plants being hit by bush fires so it should have been foreseen.


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## Agentm (8 February 2009)

the fact  they stayed and lived is a miracle really.

its catastrophic, and the locals are in deep shock..  no one knows how many died, 550 homes lost and a majority were in the kinglake region

i cant get hold of my sister but i am told she is ok.. and they survived the fire storm..  her an her daughter fought one side of the property, her husband alone on the other..  their plastic water tanks melted.. so no water and no electricity.. just devastation all round..  imho the experience of my brother in law, his cfa training, helped them stay alive, but bravery.. i am humbled by them to stay in that environment,, totally humbled beyond words.. thank christ we are not facing a funeral.. its truly a miracle to survive that firestorm and have it pass over you..


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## CanOz (8 February 2009)

My heart goes out to all those affected by the bush fires in Australia. Truly a very devastating few days  of summer.

CanOz


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## IFocus (8 February 2009)

CanOz said:


> My heart goes out to all those affected by the bush fires in Australia. Truly a very devastating few days  of summer.
> 
> CanOz




Yes Can me too a sad day for many.................


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## Agentm (8 February 2009)

best way to describe it, 2 families stayed to fight, they each only have one neighbour now..  all properties there were raized.. total devistation all throughout..

amazing.. miraculous!


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## Aussiejeff (8 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> I don't want to turn this into another one of Smurf's power threads, but:
> 
> 
> Now, Loy Yang (including the gas turbines on the same site) accounts for about a third of Victoria's generating capacity and nearly half its actual production of electricity.
> ...




This has been a terrible disaster, with CFA and local brigades stretched way beyond breaking point. All the talk by Vic Fire Authorities about "sufficient resources" and "adequate fire plans" being in place THIS time around, has once again proven sadly to be mistaken.

In fact, many local CFA and weather bureau people themselves were warning this was shaping up to be a potential disaster - and they were right. Why was not more proactive use of our fine Defence Personnel made in this so-called "1 in 100" year event? 

I'm sure the Defence Forces could and would have been able to help out in a significant way both before and during this catastrophe, if only they had been asked by the State & Fed governments - if they had the foresight.   

For instance, squadrons of Blackhawks might have been deployed to ferry people out of isolated towns, rather than have locals trying to escape by driving out (and subsequently dying) along heavily forested roads. Then there's the loads of Army transport trucks, bulldozers, manpower that MIGHT have been set up, just in case things got out of control??? I'm not saying EVERYONE of the poor souls who died this time would have been saved, but surely with such a potential catastrophe looming, why not have those ADDITIONAL forces made available? I'm absolutely certain the Blackhawks in particular could have made a substantial difference if asked..

Being ex-Army Aviation myself, I'd guess most Defence personnel would have been itching to help out with this disaster right from the get-go as events were unfolding, but beaurocratic red tape is always a problem. Rapidly moving events om the ground always seem to completely outpace belated pen-manship. Our own squadron of Kiowa choppers & Porter STOL fixed wing aircraft were on standby at Oakey when the 74 cyclone & floods hit Brisbane in January of that year, but we were never called in en-masse, which we all found highly frustrating. 

Instead, I believe just one R.A.A.F. chopper squadron was belatedly sent (as well as some local military personnel and vehicles from Enoggera). Only a couple of our Army choppers went in much later, after about a week to offer a little assistance. Really, we were very surprised and a bit miffed that we & many of the other R.A.A.F. units for that matter, never got the call to assist in those desperate and following days. 

Since that experience, I have the impression the Fed Gummint only considers deploying Defence personnel and equipment as a last resort - like Rudd now approving this - but generally AFTER the main event has occurred.

Maybe a more proactive approach could be considered in the future, when all the planets once more line up to create a "perfect fire-storm" scenario.

RIP victims. 



aj


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## gfresh (8 February 2009)

Unbelievable..  My thoughts are with those that have left this world. 

Hopefully everybody out there can chip in a few dollars to help these communities recover.


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## MrBurns (8 February 2009)

Remember news reader Brian Naylor ?

His wife died at Kinglake and he's missing.

Also reatives in Beechworth told us they've been given 2 hours to get out.


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## CanOz (8 February 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> This has been a terrible disaster, with CFA and local brigades stretched way beyond breaking point. All the talk by Vic Fire Authorities about "sufficient resources" and "adequate fire plans" being in place THIS time around, has once again proven sadly to be mistaken.
> 
> In fact, many local CFA and weather bureau people themselves were warning this was shaping up to be a potential disaster - and they were right. Why was not more proactive use of our fine Defence Personnel made in this so-called "1 in 100" year event?
> 
> ...




I'm not so sure i agree here. Fire is unpredictable at the best of times. If the g'ment mobilised the Army even time a 40+ degree day( or 6 ) happened then they would be on full standby every other day of summer.

If you are going to live in these communities you must be prepared. You must have a fire plan. If your fire plan is to get out when the fire is x kms from your home then so be it. But have a plan, i did, when i lived 45 kms from Bendigo near Talbot. The north wind scared the hell out of me.

Australia is more extreme in this case than any other place on earth, we must learn to respect fire and get the heck out of its way.

CanOz


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 February 2009)

Here in N.Queensland our thoughts are with you all who are suffering loss in the fires.

gg


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## M34N (8 February 2009)

May I strongly suggest people make donations to the Red Cross website for the Victorian Bushfire Appeal 2009. I just donated $100 myself and would highly encourage everyone on here to do the same.

Cheers everyone, take care.


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## ghotib (8 February 2009)

Before we all start complaining that there should have been more hazard reduction burning, shouldn't we find out how much did get done and what factors affected that. There's a very big drought on people, and it's lasted through several winters. I know there have been years in the NSW Blue Mountains when there was hardly any time available for safe hazard reduction burning because the bush, was too dry and at least one wild fire got started when a hazard reduction burn got out of control.  

As for keeping vegetation green. There's a very big drought on people. When water gets scarce you have to make choices about what gets some and what doesn't. 

I'm not saying people couldn't have prepared better, but let's not leap to conclusions just yet. How about those of us not directly affected allow for the possibility that at least some of the people who died were not stupid and did make preparations. Sometimes you just can't prepare for what actually happens. 

Ghoti


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## spartn (8 February 2009)

Hi Guyz

This is really a tragic day. I live in Ferntree Gully just before the dandenongs and all last night i could smell the smoke coming through my windows. 

I have a mate the lives in Healsville and last night he told he wasn't allowed to leave because it was too dangerous, and one of his poor neighbours lost his Home and 27 horses, this is going to be so tragic for the Fauna/Flora of Victoria we already have enough endangered species in this state. 

Thank god though that nearly all of the people from Marysville have made it out with there lives at least. God, Marysville was such a nice place I used to go camping along the Stevensons River, so sad.

And by the looks of it, the death toll has has now risen to 84, 9 more than Ash Wednesday. And it was just 4 hours ago that they were saying that the death toll could reach 40 I knew that was a bit optimistic.

I will say a prayer for the lives lost and hope that the death toll doesn't go too much higher, but they are already saying that its going to exceed 100.

Spartn

:viking:


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## Happy (8 February 2009)

Partially people are themselves responsible for the ultimate price they paid.

It is obvious to me that some overestimated their chances of survival, others fell victims of poor judgements of those who make calls in the family, community.

Ultimate  >we will be all right mate<  attitude.

Surely more property would be lost, but not a single human life had to be scarified in flames.


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## spartn (8 February 2009)

Happy said:


> Partially people are themselves responsible for the ultimate price they paid.
> 
> It is obvious to me that some overestimated their chances of survival, others fell victims of poor judgements of those who make calls in the family, community.
> 
> ...




Unfortunitely I agree with you mate. But a lot less wouldn't have died if it wasn't for those '****ing' arsonists that started half the bloody fires too.

Im not going to say what people should/shouldn't have done. What would you have done if everything you worked for and all your treasured memories just went up in smoke. I reckon a few must have just given up they were so Distraught 

Spartn

:viking:


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## MrBurns (8 February 2009)

Happy said:


> Partially people are themselves responsible for the ultimate price they paid.
> 
> It is obvious to me that some overestimated their chances of survival, others fell victims of poor judgements of those who make calls in the family, community.
> 
> ...




I think it's the authorities who once again underestimated the danger, it had been over 40 last week then again estimated 45 ??? it was obvious that something would very likely hapen, people should have been told to get to clear ground as soon as the forecast was known.

Not good enough to say prople should look after themselves they have to be told of the danger and told to leave.


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## sam76 (8 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I think it's the authorities who once again underestimated the danger, it had been over 40 last week then again estimated 45 ??? it was obvious that something would very likely hapen, people should have been told to get to clear ground as soon as the forecast was known.
> 
> Not good enough to say prople should look after themselves they have to be told of the danger and told to leave.




i think that's a bit unfair mate.

Authorities have been warning the public up to a week before yesterday.

People make choices. All we can do is offer education.

Again, it is illegal to force anyone to leave their property in the event of a fire in Victoria.


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## Julia (8 February 2009)

I'm with Ghoti's reminder here.
It's easy for us to sit at our computers, having watched the horror of it all on the TV news, and say what people should have done.  We don't know what preparations had been made.

Whatever people decided to do - go or stay - they would have done what they thought was best at the time.  I know I'd leave in even the slight chance a bushfire could engulf my home.  But not everyone has insurance.  I saw one woman on the news weep that it had taken her twenty years to get her home and it was gone in five minutes.   Houses can be rebuilt.  Lost lives are gone for ever.   

RIP the lives lost and sympathy to the families.


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## gfresh (8 February 2009)

It has been confirmed that former newsreader Brian Naylor, and his wife, unfortunately perished in the fires at Kinglake. 

I grew up watching that guy on the news each night  RIP


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## sam76 (8 February 2009)

VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE FUND - 1800 811 700


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## MrBurns (8 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> i think that's a bit unfair mate.
> 
> Authorities have been warning the public up to a week before yesterday.
> 
> ...




I stand by what I said, the authorities have had experience of Ash Wednesday and should have known this would happen given recent weather and forecasts.

There's no excuse for this level of loss of life given the information at hand.


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## sam76 (8 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I stand by what I said, the authorities have had experience of Ash Wednesday and should have known this would happen given recent weather and forecasts.
> 
> There's no excuse for this level of loss of life given the information at hand.





They did know.

That's why they have been warning the public for the last week.


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## MrBurns (8 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> They did know.
> 
> That's why they have been warning the public for the last week.




The warnings probably weren't of an urgent enough nature, I dont recall any to be honest.

What's done is done but if the state Govt can spend $1B on a ticketing system that doesnt work perhaps they can work out a way to prevent this happening again and believe me, these circumstances will repeat themselves again within 10 years.


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## MrBurns (8 February 2009)

Just saw a guy on TV that survived in an underground cellar, perhaps this should be part of a building permit in these areas.


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## son of baglimit (8 February 2009)

happy - you were the 1st to state what ive been muttering to myself all day.

mr burns. - the forecast was known for days, and yesterday there were many warnings to ALL in victoria - get out NOW before it begins.

but people in the affected regions have had smaller grass/bush fires for several years now, beaten them, and become over-confident in their own ability and the ability of a garden hose and a mown lawn to save their properties.

BUT THE TRUTH IS........WHEN ITS 40+C, WHEN THE WIND IS BLOWING ABOVE 30 KNOTS, WHEN ITS AS DRY AS ITS EVER BEEN (ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS WEEKS CONSTANT 40+C DAYS) THE RULE SHOULD BE.........

WALK AWAY, YOU CANNOT FIGHT THOSE CONDITIONS AT ALL (HENCE THE BRIGADES WALK AWAY TILL ITS SAFE) AND ONCE ITS COME AND GONE, AND ONLY THEN, RETURN AND CLEAN UP & REBUILD.

if you choose to live in such beautiful scenic green areas in this country, you have to prepared for the ugly side of such, and that is walk away and live for another day.

i only hope that this FINALLY creates the rule that - should anyone wish to live in these areas, or the urban fringe, they are educated and see the devastation (im sure the media have recordings that never go to air, due to the gruesome scenes) and be made aware that when these weather conditions exist, you need to walk away and come back afterwards....live for another day.


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## Judd (9 February 2009)

First, my sincere condolences to the families of those who have been killed in these fires.  So far the death tole is 96 and rising and, sadly, some of those in hospital are unlikely to survive.  Of those who do, a number will require extensive and painful rehabilitation and that's only the physical aspect.

Second, you may care to browse this link.

http://www.abc.net.au/blackfriday/royalcommission/index_recommendations.htm

It is Judge Stretton's major recommendations following the Royal Commission into the 1939 bushfires.  Not much as changed over the years, has it?


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## nulla nulla (9 February 2009)

IMO the idiots that casually flick a burning cigarete butt from their cars are just as criminal as the arsonists that deliberately light fires. When they catch whoever lit these fires that have claimed lives, they should be charged with murder and be put away for ever.


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## Prospector (9 February 2009)

My sincere condolences to all those affected by this.  Not that they will have the luxury of reading ASF for a while.

Listening to some of the stories, it just seems that unless the entire country area of Victoria was evacuated, there was no way that people could really escape this fire.  One person from SA said on the radio this morning that his brother had stayed to fight his house in an area between two of the major fires  - 20 kms from 1, 30 from the other so you would think 'safe'. From the time they saw the fire (their area wasnt mentioned on the ABC radio as a potential bushfire risk) they had 15 minutes until it was on them.  He stayed, his neighbours left.  He doesnt think his neighbours survived the car trip, but he and his wife and child did.  And then his father hired a helicopter to get them out.

In Adelaide, because our hills are now so densely populated and so close to the CBD, (less 15 minutes) we are talking major major evacuation.  I dont think we could cope.  On the other hand, look at what they do in the US when there is a hurricane risk.

It was hell here in Adelaide (and SA) for about 90 minutes; Victoria would have had this for around 8 hours.

So, I dont know, I dont know the answers.


----------



## MrBurns (9 February 2009)

I think the'll have to make a number of safe areas that people can easily get to in a fire OR regulate that homes within certain areas have bunkers that can be used to shelter - expensive though for that once a decade event.

As far as the warnings do I didnt hear any, except the usual "be careful" generalities.


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## OK2 (9 February 2009)

Happy said:


> Partially people are themselves responsible for the ultimate price they paid.
> 
> It is obvious to me that some overestimated their chances of survival, others fell victims of poor judgements of those who make calls in the family, community.
> 
> ...




One of the homes lost had two fire pumps and a dam across the front of the property and no longer stands. 

In the time that you began reading this post a fire started a few kilometers away from where you are right now and within *3* minutes will level your home. There is no warning as there is no fire in the area and your local CFA/MFB is away assisting other communities because there is no risk to their own. Neighbours are telling you that the roads out of the area are already closed, the 100kmh winds have brought down trees, power lines and caused numerous car accidents because of the *zero *visability. Are you so naive to think that so many people had the intention of fighting these fires with kids in the house and as respected elderly citizens like Brian Naylor? These people had no chance and this was only 60km's or so from Melbourne and not in the middle of the Great Desert. If this fire front had of hit any major city in Australia we would of been talking of exactly the same outcome only with more catastrophic results, there would of been no way of stopping it and no where to hide. What did you do, where did you go, what did you save or should I ask who did you save because you would not of been able to save yourself!

I hope that you enjoyed the last three minutes..........................................


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## sam76 (9 February 2009)

Mr. Burns.

If you can tell the CFA where the fires will start then I'm sure they will focus more intently on those areas. 

It is also a known fact that cellars are a quite dangerous place to shelter during a fire.

A: you don't know what is going on around you.
B: There is a very real chance something will fall and cover the trap door.
C: the whole floor collapes on to you.

In the last 10 years we have seen a major tree change by people moving out to the rural/urban fringe.

they move out there for the 'lifestyle' and to be 'close to nature'. These people simply lack fire knowledge believe they will get a truck come to them in the event of a major fire. 

it's up to the locals and the cfa to educate them if they coose to allow themselves to be educated.

It's the whole leading a horse to water arguement.

The CFA do letter box dops then put on Fire ready Victoria sessions  on street corners to gather interests from the community. Then Community Firegurd facilitators call these people and organise groups for a series of meetings to educate people on fire safety etc....

*""As far as the warnings do I didnt hear any, except the usual "be careful" generalities.""*

Blaming the Authorities for this well you've read my other posts on the matter. Just like you can't expect a truck in the event of a fire you also can't expect an individual warning.


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## sam76 (9 February 2009)

OK2 said:


> In the time that you began reading this post a fire started a few kilometers away from where you are right now and within *3* minutes will level your home.
> 
> I hope that you enjoyed the last three minutes..........................................




This is the type of nonsense that confuses and scares people. 

Houses do not burn in three minutes.

The fastest know fire was in 1939 at a speed of 15km/h

Writing this stuff does not help people.


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## MrBurns (9 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> Mr. Burns.
> 
> If you can tell the CFA where the fires will start then I'm sure they will focus more intently on those areas.
> 
> ...





Man and his family on TV saved by their cellar, steel door above them glowed red with the heat but they were ok. That's fact not opinion.

please don't turn this into a "someones blaming the CFA thing" because I'm not , by authorities I mean the State Govt, they can spend $1B on a ticketing system that doesn't work but they cant work out how to make rural environments safer for the people living there.

I don't think it's fair to say this was unexpected it's happened before and we had the hottest week on record - wake up !

Safe areas, maintenance paid by levies on rates for rural dwellers - there simple isn't it ? Why wasn't it done.

I know some people stayed when they should have gone and Brian Naylor was among them but if the warning to move to the safe areas (which didn't exist) were broadcast properly perhaps lives would have been saved.

As it stands you would be crazy to live in a rural area if you just accept that these events cannot be better prepared for.


----------



## OK2 (9 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> This is the type of nonsense that confuses and scares people.
> 
> Houses do not burn in three minutes.
> 
> ...




Perhaps you should speak to people who were in the middle of it. I am in a semi rural area not far from there. People were running from neighbours home to neighbours home because they could not out run the fire. Are you serious? One person said that it was like a dozen fighter planes coming through. It was so fast that there was no air support. I take it that you live in suburbia. A house that is burning from four sides on the outside implodes, the air is first sucked out of it as opposed to a house which burns from the inside outward looking for oxygen to fuel it. Do some research or talk to someone in the CFA, they will tell you what you dont want to know.


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## sam76 (9 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Man and his family on TV saved by their cellar, steel door above them glowed red with the heat but they were ok. That's fact not opinion.
> .





more luck than anything, mate.

Agreed, there are bigger things going on in the world than a pissy internet argument over blame.

you know my position and i know yours.


----------



## OK2 (9 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> This is the type of nonsense that confuses and scares people.
> 
> Houses do not burn in three minutes.
> 
> ...




15kmh is the speed of which the face of a fire travels at, the ember attack travels at the speed which the wind carries it. In this case 100kmh if not more, some homes had their roofs blown off by the wind!


----------



## sam76 (9 February 2009)

OK2 said:


> Perhaps you should speak to people who were in the middle of it. I am in a semi rural area not far from there. People were running from neighbours home to neighbours home because they could not out run the fire. Are you serious? One person said that it was like a dozen fighter planes coming through. It was so fast that there was no air support. I take it that you live in suburbia. A house that is burning from four sides on the outside implodes, the air is first sucked out of it as opposed to a house which burns from the inside outward looking for oxygen to fuel it. Do some research or talk to someone in the CFA, they will tell you what you dont want to know.





I am an employee and have over 20 years experience fighting fires with the CFA

Perhaps you should calm down a bit before scaring other people with the nonsese you are writing.


----------



## OK2 (9 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> I am an employee and have over 20 years experience fighting fires with the CFA
> 
> Perhaps you should calm down a bit before scaring other people with the nonsese you are writing.




Which division, I might know you?


----------



## MrBurns (9 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> more luck than anything, mate.
> 
> Agreed, there are bigger things going on in the world than a pissy internet argument over blame.
> 
> you know my position and i know yours.




Dont know about just luck they were comfortable enough down there to start drinking the wine (stupid thing to do in case they had to make a run for it)


----------



## sam76 (9 February 2009)

OK2 said:


> 15kmh is the speed of which the face of a fire travels at, the ember attack travels at the speed which the wind carries it. In this case 100kmh if not more, some homes had their roofs blown off by the wind!





Are you saying that spotting occurs 100km from the main front?

I hope not.


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## sam76 (9 February 2009)

OK2 said:


> Which division, I might know you?





if you want to continue this conversation i suggest you pm me.


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## OK2 (9 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> I am an employee and have over 20 years experience fighting fires with the CFA
> 
> Perhaps you should calm down a bit before scaring other people with the nonsese you are writing.




You would be aware that 6 homes were lost in Narre Warren before the CFA could arrive. The occupants of three of the homes did not even know that their homes were on fire. Is that also my imagination?


----------



## sam76 (9 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Dont know about just luck they were comfortable enough down there to start drinking the wine (stupid thing to do in case they had to make a run for it)




no comment,


----------



## OK2 (9 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> Are you saying that spotting occurs 100km from the main front?
> 
> I hope not.




If your car travels at 100kmh an ember will travel at the same speed, not distance!


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## sam76 (9 February 2009)

OK2 said:


> You would be aware that 6 homes were lost in Narre Warren before the CFA could arrive. The occupants of three of the homes did not even know that their homes were on fire. Is that also my imagination?




Your point?

mate, go make yourself a cup of tea.

you've had a hard couple of days no doubt and i would hate for it all to come out here.

i'm not going to be answering anymore of your posts.

Pm me if you wish.


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## sam76 (9 February 2009)

OK2 said:


> If your car travels at 100kmh an ember will travel at the same speed, not distance!




i won't be answering anymore of your posts - except this one.

hence why I asked for clarification from you.


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## Prospector (9 February 2009)

Maybe the last few posts is indicative of the confusion and chaos that a fire storm brings.  Maybe you are all correct, maybe in a fire as horrific as this one, every one of those scenarios occurs.  We know that the CFS does make mistakes; that was one of the reasons why many people lost their lives in the Adelaide foothills a few years ago, and recently on Eyre Peninsula.  Maybe those mistakes are almost inevitable in such circumstances.  They do their best but that will never be good enough to prevent situations like this.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25027291-29277,00.html

Brumby says Police may need to review their 'stay and fight' policy.


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## Bushman (9 February 2009)

son of baglimit said:


> BUT THE TRUTH IS........WHEN ITS 40+C, WHEN THE WIND IS BLOWING ABOVE 30 KNOTS, WHEN ITS AS DRY AS ITS EVER BEEN (ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS WEEKS CONSTANT 40+C DAYS) THE RULE SHOULD BE.........
> 
> WALK AWAY, YOU CANNOT FIGHT THOSE CONDITIONS AT ALL (HENCE THE BRIGADES WALK AWAY TILL ITS SAFE) AND ONCE ITS COME AND GONE, AND ONLY THEN, RETURN AND CLEAN UP & REBUILD.
> 
> .




Spot on mate. It was entirely predictable that *this fire *would be something else and that the rule book would not apply. We had three days in a row above 43 degrees with less than 5% humidity. Then we had the stinker above 46 degrees with hot northerly winds. I live about 50km from Kinglake (which is almost inner-city Melbourne) and the wind was howling from about 11am. 

The ferocity of this fire was astounding. Marysville and Kinglake has been through countless fire seasons and both towns have 'evaporated' in the matter of minutes. 

I am simply devastated by this. Whole Victorian families (including some that I know) have lost everything, including their lives. RIP to all the victims. I believe the Red Cross has opened a fire victim trust - please google it and donate if you have the capacity.


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## basilio (9 February 2009)

Unbelievable trauma with the bushfires. Already hit home to me with at least one  family relative losing their home and all belongings in marysville and probably a few others in Kinglake and St Andrews. Thankfully no lives lost.

I'm sure  many, many other people will be affected directly or indirectly.

I think when the CFA and everyone else has a chance to look at these fires it will be seen to be a huge jump in speed, ferocity and impact over anything else they have seen in the past 50 years.   The 34 days without rain, the searing heat of a couple of weeks ago that took the last dregs of moisture out of the soil and finally the record heat and winds of Saturday seemed to have created firestorm conditions.  In that sense the intense burning of oxygen  creates an enormous draft which feeds the fire even further and accentuates the winds already happening. Check out the stories of the Dresden fire bombing.

I suspect that the fire plans were probably quite good but simply incapable of being effective in the extreme circumstances.

To the future? 

1) I'd like to think that  any rebuilding is done with some thought about protection from future fires. Unfortunately BOM is warning that that with rising  global temperatures these  extreme weather conditions will become more of the norm. We will have to deal with them differently to what has been done in the past.

2) I'm starting to be concerned about the state of our  Insurance funds. Queensland in flood disaster mode; Victoria has lost hundreds of millions if not billions in property, lives, farms and community infrastructure and the stockmarket has melted. How solvent are the companies in these circumstances? We'll find out quick enough...

3) Given the above circumstances what are the chances that insurance companies will either decline to insure certain areas and/or increase premiums across the board to cover their situations.  Again seems absolutely certain to me.

4) Finally what is the chance that Rudd will rejig his $42 billion package to reduce the amount given to all households and send the difference to the people and communities so far affected ? I think it would make far more sense socially and financially. Getting $900 rather than $950 and knowing we were part of the communities support for flood and bushfire sufferers would be a good look.

Hope that readers friends and families are coping and I'm sure they would appreciate calls and support. 

Cheers


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## kincella (9 February 2009)

in hindsight those people had no chance....if they were to evacuate it would have to have been on Fri...or early Sat morning.....but where would they all go ???...the whole of Vic was at risk

was there a local cricket ground or open area devoid of trees ????
if I saw the predictions of high winds again....I would be asking the community to find a spot, described above....bring all the water there to protect the people and domestic animals.....and every able person to stay there to protect the people....and organise everyone out of their homes to the safe spot
as for buildings.....there was no chance....

agreed with another post ,, about people staying to protect property....under normal circumstances that might be ok....but 100kph winds is not normal.....and people should not be encouraged to stay....

this situation will occur many times before this season is over.......
brother lives in Albury....asked him yesterday what was his fire plan...he said stay in the house......when I spoke to him today...and suggested with 100kph winds like kinglake he would have no chance....he's decided he thinks an underground car park might help....??? he would be better off walking to the river ???? and sheltering there ??? or going to the local sports park 500 yards away....as per my idea at the beginning of this post.

my plan is to walk/run down to the river 500 metres away.....not use the car....but then I will probably drown anyway....not much of a swimmer....need a wollen blanket to cover self...
now wonder how those people will cope getting centrelink money if they have no identification ???????


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## Aussiejeff (9 February 2009)

CanOz said:


> I'm not so sure i agree here. Fire is unpredictable at the best of times. *If the g'ment mobilised the Army even time a 40+ degree day( or 6 ) happened then they would be on full standby every other day of summer*.
> CanOz




Well, the g'ment HAS mobilised the Army. But AFTER the worst of the event (so far). That's the point.

Would it REALLY hurt to have an Emergency Evacuation Plan that includes using as many spare R.A.A.F. and Army Aviation aircraft as possible? Maybe even to the point of assisting in fire spotting and transporting rapid response fire crews to hot spots? 

I agree it's probably not feasible to do for your average hot spell, but this was EXCEPTIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES and everyone knew it was beforehand!! The gummint made the mistake of thinking the few extra CFS resources they had set in place would be adequate. Again, they were proved sadly wrong. 

The CFS have done a remarkable, brave job in the circumstances and given their resources. However, I remain convinced that Defence air support could well have saved a number of residents in the worst hit towns. They could have been safely evacuated in minutes by a squadron of BH's. Instead many perished in their cars - trying to escape heavily forrested areas, where there is often only one main road to escape on. What if that road is blocked by accidents, smoke or fallen trees? What then? Well, we now know.

I think if a squadron of BH's swooped in and over loudhailers ordered everyone left to get in and evacuate NOW, there might just be better success in moving those who tend to want to stay till the last minute.

I'm not wanting to blame anyone. It's too late for that now. I'm just offering what I believe is an additional under-utilised resource as a possibility for inclusion in a plan for future catastrophic fire events, which forecasters are predicting to become more common over time.


aj


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## gfresh (9 February 2009)

Thing is, some will choose to stay in their house, and try to save things, if not are willing to perish with it. Some have decades of life in these houses, and will refuse to leave, even if the chances are dire. It is everything to them. It seems nonsensical, but unless you have been close to, or know people in that situation it's hard to understand the mindset.

Not to say of course, all in this situation chose to stay voluntarily.


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## numbercruncher (9 February 2009)

The speed of a fire front advancing will double with every 10 degree increase in slope so that on a 20 degree slope, its speed is four times greater. 


Spotting can occur up to 30 kilometres downwind from the fire front.


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## kincella (9 February 2009)

I agree with you Aussiejeff....in fact I was thinking myself, there is probably a demand for a private fire protection service....like the security people...

that people in high risk places could pay for,,,like insurance....in the event of fires...they would be airlifted out (if possible) or be able to call on a squad of people with all the equipment to help protect them.....
or for example....like my earlier post...people forced to congregate in a safe open space....and then be protected...or airlifted out of danger.........

maybe you have the contacts and experience to look at something like this....
hire the equipment from the defence forces....and have them on standby as needed....in this case we had at least 5 days notice.....
since this situation will happen again....vic, nsw and sa   most drought affected areas
I can understand older people reluctant to leave their homes...and without their homes would not feel like starting again....wonder how many did not have insurance ???
could not think  of anything worse than being burnt alive.....or does the smoke overcome them...and unconscious...and not feel a thing ???


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## sam76 (9 February 2009)

numbercruncher said:


> The speed of a fire front advancing will double with every 10 degree increase in slope so that on a 20 degree slope, its speed is four times greater.
> 
> 
> Spotting can occur up to 30 kilometres downwind from the fire front.




finally, some useful facts.


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## dirty_harry (9 February 2009)

I've fought fires and I can tell you that the radiant heat is something that you cannot prepare for by watching it on tv. Being 50m away from forest fires can be like putting your head 10cm from a radiator. Saturday really must have been hell on earth.

Because of the speed, intensity and unpredictability it was something different this time. Even in ash Wednesday there was more time and opportunity to take evasive action.

People were given the option to stay and protect their houses. This turns out to be poor advice for houses that were surrounded by forest. There were some situtations where there was nothing people could have done to avoid death short of leaving. Awful. Very sad.


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## prawn_86 (9 February 2009)

Is there any way people can donate aside from to the Red Cross?

I dont want to donate to that appeal as i saw an interview with the CEO of the Red Cross and he said all the funds would be managed and distributed by the Vic government, and I dont want the gov handling the money i donate cause they wont be efficient with it.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 February 2009)

ghotib said:


> As for keeping vegetation green. There's a very big drought on people. When water gets scarce you have to make choices about what gets some and what doesn't.
> 
> I'm not saying people couldn't have prepared better, but let's not leap to conclusions just yet. How about those of us not directly affected allow for the possibility that at least some of the people who died were not stupid and did make preparations. Sometimes you just can't prepare for what actually happens.
> 
> Ghoti



Agreed with what you're saying. 

My point about keeping vegetation around houses green is that we should have built dams, pipelines, desal, water tanks or whatever years ago so we had the water to do it. In engineering terms, that problem is fixable.


----------



## inrodwetrust (9 February 2009)

> Is there any way people can donate aside from to the Red Cross?
> 
> I dont want to donate to that appeal as i saw an interview with the CEO of the Red Cross and he said all the funds would be managed and distributed by the Vic government, and I dont want the gov handling the money i donate cause they wont be efficient with it.




There's always the salvos, might be worth a try 

http://salvos.org.au/about-us/media-centre/documents/20090208-bushfire-and-floods-relief-appeal.pdf

Although their fund is a general disaster fund that includes NQ floods... not sure if you can direct only to vic fires or not.

Correction you can @
http://www.salvos.org.au/

=========

Just how practical is it to develop a fire blanket suitable for cars? might be something worth looking into. Clearly some challenges to overcome but...it's only got to work once.


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## Smurf1976 (9 February 2009)

nulla nulla said:


> IMO the idiots that casually flick a burning cigarete butt from their cars are just as criminal as the arsonists that deliberately light fires. When they catch whoever lit these fires that have claimed lives, they should be charged with murder and be put away for ever.



In 2006 we had serious fires around Hobart with both the Eastern and Western shores alight. That night, driving a couple of km from where the fires had been contained to, I saw someone throw a lit cigarette butt out their car window. Let's just say that is the first and only time I've committed an act of road rage... 

If you want to smoke then that's your business. It's not illegal and it's your right to decide. But you don't have the right to set the place on fire in the process.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 February 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> I'm not wanting to blame anyone. It's too late for that now. I'm just offering what I believe is an additional under-utilised resource as a possibility for inclusion in a plan for future catastrophic fire events, which forecasters are predicting to become more common over time.



It's a similar situation between the states. NSW, SA and Tas have all sent people to help in Vic but to a large extent that didn't happen until after the inevitable meetings etc decided it was necessary.

I'd say yes, use the military where that can help. We've got people already being paid, equipment sitting there etc so it makes sense to use them if they can help. 

And perhaps look at co-operation with New Zealand as well on things like this since it's really not that far away by air. We help put out fires in the US after all and that's a lot further to travel.

All that said, the immediate need is to get the fires out any way we can before the next hot weather and strong winds. And of course to help the victims with immediate accommodation, food, clothing etc as well as helping them rebuild their lives.


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## ghotib (9 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed with what you're saying.
> 
> My point about keeping vegetation around houses green is that we should have built dams, pipelines, desal, water tanks or whatever years ago so we had the water to do it. In engineering terms, that problem is fixable.



Ackshully I only half agree with what I was saying  An enormous amount can be done by changing the kind of vegetation you plant and maintain around houses. 

I'm not sure about the place of big water infrastructure. In emergencies like these fires it's very likely that you'll have to rely on local and individual water storage and pumping (because the power is out). OTOH, bringing water in before the emergency helps maintain local supply. OT3rdH, if it was possible to pipe water around from place to place as easily as switching electricity around the grid, how would you know where the next really big fire emergency was going to be? And OT4thH, dams, pipelines and water tanks can't make the rain fall. 

Ghoti


----------



## Judd (9 February 2009)

Just some interesting stuff from the CSIRO web-site on bushfires - there is plenty more there as well.  Anything written or co-authored by Phil Cheney is well worth a read.


----------



## Julia (9 February 2009)

basilio said:


> 4) Finally what is the chance that Rudd will rejig his $42 billion package to reduce the amount given to all households and send the difference to the people and communities so far affected ? I think it would make far more sense socially and financially. Getting $900 rather than $950 and knowing we were part of the communities support for flood and bushfire sufferers would be a good look.



Great suggestion.  I'd opt for more than $50 to be diverted in this way.



kincella said:


> i
> 
> 
> 
> now wonder how those people will cope getting centrelink money if they have no identification ???????



The Manager of Centrelink was asked about this on radio interview today.
He gave the assurance that their staff are trained to deal with this aspect and people should go to the Emergency Shelters where there will be Centrelink staff including a Social Worker.



prawn_86 said:


> Is there any way people can donate aside from to the Red Cross?
> 
> I dont want to donate to that appeal as i saw an interview with the CEO of the Red Cross and he said all the funds would be managed and distributed by the Vic government, and I dont want the gov handling the money i donate cause they wont be efficient with it.



All the banks have been collection points for the Nth Qld flood victims.
I'd be surprised if they don't do the same for the fire victims.


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## Julia (9 February 2009)

As someone who is safe and far away from all the devastation, I'm still feeling quite sick and distressed about it all.
I just can't begin to imagine how it must feel to have lost members of your family, loved pets, and everything you own.


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## Prospector (9 February 2009)

Just one little comment to make.  If someone loses a loved one, their house, clothing, pets etc due to a 'one off' electrical fire, then other than perhaps a note on the news, there is little attempt to help these people yet they have lost as much as most in these bushfires.  They certainly dont receive anything from either State or Federal governments.  I just think there is an inequity in how we deal with 'major crises to the masses' as opposed to 'major crises to the individual'

Not saying of course, that we shouldnt be doing everything we can in this crisis, but maybe we should also think about other situations too.


----------



## daisy (9 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> Just one little comment to make.  If someone loses a loved one, their house, clothing, pets etc due to a 'one off' electrical fire, then other than perhaps a note on the news, there is little attempt to help these people yet they have lost as much as most in these bushfires.  They certainly dont receive anything from either State or Federal governments.  I just think there is an inequity in how we deal with 'major crises to the masses' as opposed to 'major crises to the individual'




You are right. But at least where I live in NQ a newspaper article attracts lots of willing contributions from other members of our community. I've spent most of today putting stuff together from my house to send to a friend in Ingham who has lost all her fabriccy things in the floods. Clothes, mattress, linen etc. But when an entire town is wiped out nobody has any cupboards to empty and share, So I guess this is why the gov't steps in??


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## Smurf1976 (9 February 2009)

ghotib said:


> Ackshully I only half agree with what I was saying  An enormous amount can be done by changing the kind of vegetation you plant and maintain around houses.
> 
> I'm not sure about the place of big water infrastructure. In emergencies like these fires it's very likely that you'll have to rely on local and individual water storage and pumping (because the power is out). OTOH, bringing water in before the emergency helps maintain local supply. OT3rdH, if it was possible to pipe water around from place to place as easily as switching electricity around the grid, how would you know where the next really big fire emergency was going to be? And OT4thH, dams, pipelines and water tanks can't make the rain fall.
> 
> Ghoti



I'm thinking of the research done after the Canberra fires a few years ago. Basically, those who kept the garden green were less likely to have the house burnt than those who didn't water. 

As for the water infrastructure, the purpose of that is simply so that people can water the gardens and keep them green. Not a difficult thing to do as far as engineering considerations are concerned, but for political reasons we instead have a system of "water restrictions" in many parts of the country. These restrictions have as their intention a reduction (or in some cases outright elimination) of water use on gardens with the consequence that everything dries out. According to what fire authorties in Tas say on the subject, dry things are more of a hazard than those that are kept watered.

I'm not saying that a green lawn is going to stop a bush fire. It won't. But if proper research (by CSIRO from memory) has found there's some benefit in having a well watered garden then I think people sould be free to use (and pay for) as much water as they find necessary to achieve that. It's not as though there's a physical reason why it can't be supplied, it's purely politics that's stopping it. 

We don't run a planned economy in anything other than water - the Premier doesn't run around telling you how many apples to buy or how many cashew nuts to eat with threats of fines for anyone who disobeys the order. People decide what amount to use and purchase it. Let them do the same with water and build whatever supply is needed to meet that demand. It's not as though there's physical scarcity of the stuff when you've got individual rivers in Tas and northern Australia flowing more out to sea than the entire consumption of Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth combined.


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## MrBurns (9 February 2009)

There now saying there should be mass evacuations when the conditions are that bad, people were told it was bad but wern't told that what has happened was a possibility, the warnings weren't strong enough.

If after being notified of a mass evacuation people could do as they please but at least they would have been told they may perish.

Most in that circumstance wouldnt hang around to try and save a house.

That lesson should have been learnt after Ash Wesnesday.


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## Prospector (9 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm thinking of the research done after the Canberra fires a few years ago. Basically, those who kept the garden green were less likely to have the house burnt than those who didn't water.
> 
> I'm not saying that a green lawn is going to stop a bush fire. It won't. But if proper research (by CSIRO from memory) has found there's some benefit in having a well watered garden then I think people sould be free to use (and pay for) as much water as they find necessary to achieve that. .




Victorians arent allowed to water outside. At all!


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## tech/a (9 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> Just one little comment to make.  If someone loses a loved one, their house, clothing, pets etc due to a 'one off' electrical fire, then other than perhaps a note on the news, there is little attempt to help these people yet they have lost as much as most in these bushfires.  They certainly dont receive anything from either State or Federal governments.  I just think there is an inequity in how we deal with 'major crises to the masses' as opposed to 'major crises to the individual'
> 
> Not saying of course, that we shouldnt be doing everything we can in this crisis, but maybe we should also think about other situations too.




I wouldnt be so sure about that.


----------



## biggles (9 February 2009)

no we are allowed to water, twice a week between 6 and 8 in the morning but only a hand held hose. We are supposed to only use 155 litres a day per person.
We live in a bushy area not far from Kinglake and have had meetings with the CFA to learn how to protect our homes... create our fire plans.
We were told amongst other things to have wheelie bins with water dotted around our house with mops to put out embers, wait for the fire to pass overhead and then pop out of the house and douse the little embers. 
I think the fires came so quickly upon the town that no one had time to implement their plans.
Surely this town would have had many meetings setting up fire plans. How could so many houses burn down if they had worked?
 It was a firestorm which tore the roofs off some houses, with embers all over the place and temperatures in the high 40s. 
It was 46 in the shade at our place. I  think the fires hit in the evening to make matters worse with so much smoke so visibility was very limited. The wind went from north to south when the change came in which caught them out. Hopeless


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## nunthewiser (9 February 2009)

is these fires threatening anywhere nr OLINDA 

thanks in advance


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## Julia (9 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> We don't run a planned economy in anything other than water - the Premier doesn't run around telling you how many apples to buy or how many cashew nuts to eat with threats of fines for anyone who disobeys the order. People decide what amount to use and purchase it. Let them do the same with water and build whatever supply is needed to meet that demand. It's not as though there's physical scarcity of the stuff when you've got individual rivers in Tas and northern Australia flowing more out to sea than the entire consumption of Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth combined.



I completely agree, Smurf, even just as a general principle distinct from fire considerations.  It's ridiculous that because of proper planning and provision of infrastructure, people should have to live with such austere water restrictions.


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## biggles (9 February 2009)

I don't think Olinda but it is changing so often. You can check here
http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/incidents/incident_updates.htm


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## nunthewiser (9 February 2009)

thanks for that link


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## doctorj (9 February 2009)

This is making front page news even in the UK.  I hope everyone that come here and their friends and family are safe.  I have family in the area and I'm very pleased they're all OK.  Not sure about their homes, but that's a distant 2nd in importance.

To all those here that have criticised people for electing to stay, need to reconsider.  The fact is you don't know how you'll react when something like this happens.  

I was involved in the bad fires that hit the Perth hills in Jan 2005.  We managed to get the all horses out the day before it hit.  That evening we were told we were safe , but at 5am the next morning the fire suddenly and unexpectedly changed direction and the fire was burning back toward us.  Faced with the choice to stay or go, we stayed and fought fires all day and night.  We were quite lucky in that the house was surrounded by a well watered, nicely spaced orchard and we had a dam, our own pumps and plenty of diesel but there were some hairy moments.  The fire brigade couldn't get through.  The sound of the pine plantation exploding at the back of the property isn't something I'll soon forget.



basilio said:


> 2) I'm starting to be concerned about the state of our Insurance funds. Queensland in flood disaster mode; Victoria has lost hundreds of millions if not billions in property, lives, farms and community infrastructure and the stockmarket has melted. How solvent are the companies in these circumstances? We'll find out quick enough...



I wouldn't worry about this - when insurance claims in a particular area exceed a certain level as a result of a single event it triggers a special type of insurance that insurance companies have in place to protect themselves in circumstances such as these.  It's called catastrophe cover and is generally seeded with a number of reinsurers.  These are usually Global companies (eg. Lloyds syndicates etc) that are required to meet certain standards such as minimum credit ratings.  The insurers themselves are required to keep cash on hand (or low risk, highly liquid investments) at a minimum to the level at which this cat cover kicks in.

The level at which Cat cover kicks in varies from insurer to insurer based on their reinsurance management policy, but we're talking millions or tens of millions of retained liability.  Not hundreds of millions or billions.


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## nunthewiser (9 February 2009)

doctorj said:


> To all those here that have criticised people for electing to stay, need to reconsider.  The fact is you don't know how you'll react when something like this happens.
> 
> I was involved in the bad fires that hit the Perth hills in Jan 2005.  We managed to get the all horses out the day before it hit.  That evening we were told we were safe , but at 5am the next morning the fire suddenly and unexpectedly changed direction and the fire was burning back toward us.  Faced with the choice to stay or go, we stayed and fought fires all day and night.  We were quite lucky in that the house was surrounded by a well watered, nicely spaced orchard and we had a dam, our own pumps and plenty of diesel but there were some hairy moments.  The fire brigade couldn't get through.  The sound of the pine plantation exploding at the back of the property isn't something I'll soon forget.
> 
> ...




I too was in the perth hills in darlington .i too elected to stay with my father . we were touched by the hand of god .. our neihbours house got taken , it skipped ours and the next one and ate another 2 on our street . 

i wish this experience on no-one as i for one never wish to see it again

my heart goes out to those affected in any way in this current tragedy

i have friends in olinda hence my previous question


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## nunthewiser (9 February 2009)

I must add that in no way am i comparing the perth fires to current victorian tragedy as it does not even measure on the ricter scale , i am merely pointing out that it is an experience that should not be experienced by anybody


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## doctorj (9 February 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> I must add that in no way am i comparing the perth fires to current victorian tragedy as it does not even measure on the ricter scale , i am merely pointing out that it is an experience that should not be experienced by anybody



The scale of the tragedy has been shocking.  Obviously the fires I referred to weren't as bad, but let me tell you, at the time, I'd have said there was nothing like it and I wouldn't wish it on anybody.

It really felt like being smack in the middle of a warzone.


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## MrBurns (10 February 2009)

Brumby (Vic premier) says they will be reviewing the "stay or go" policy.

As a lot of the deaths are related to people staying and trying to save houses that's not a bad idea, too bad they didnt think of it before this happened.

Anybody could see that Saturday was a very dangerous day and as it turned out it was that and more.

The warnings were inadequate


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## Julia (10 February 2009)

I don't understand why people would risk their lives to save a house.
Houses can be rebuilt.


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## MrBurns (10 February 2009)

Julia said:


> I don't understand why people would risk their lives to save a house.
> Houses can be rebuilt.




I agree, If it's not insured at least they have a reason but to risk your life to save an insured house ??? Makes no sense.
One of my realatives did exactly that last night ,left Melbourne for Yea and it's not even the family home, a hobby farm.
Crazy.


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## numbercruncher (10 February 2009)

Julia said:


> I don't understand why people would risk their lives to save a house.
> Houses can be rebuilt.





Yes completely crazy hey - the need to review the stay or go policy to protect irrational people from themselves.


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## Prospector (10 February 2009)

A lot of these fires were caused by cinder outbreaks, which occurred several kilometres ahead of the main fire.  There were no warnings for many of the areas of the country that were badly devastated; the people had less than 15 minutes from thinking they were safe, to being fully on fire.

It seems it wasnt a matter of 'flight, or stay and fight' - there was simply nowhere for them to go.  And then the wind changed for those who decided to escape.  

So unless all of country Victoria was evacuated, this tragedy was always going to happen given the horrific conditions that were occuring Saturday morning.  The only reason I think that Adelaide escaped it (our hills are within 7k's of the CBD) was because we had a cool change at 1.30 pm.  It was hell just before then and we said at home that Victoria was going to be in for a bad day.  We just didnt think it would be this bad.


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## MrBurns (10 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> So unless all of country Victoria was evacuated, this tragedy was always going to happen given the horrific conditions that were occuring Saturday morning.  .




Julia you will find in the coming days that, like I said from the start, the "stay and fight or go" rule will come under criticism for not recognizing extreme risk and *making it clear to people that they are risking their lives to stay.*


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## sam76 (10 February 2009)

you can't evacuate a whole state.

some of the things people here are suggesting are physically impossible to implement.

1: no one knows where the fires will start.
2: huge amounts of people live in 'high risk' areas
3: those 'high risk' areas increase in size as the temp increases and rh decreases.
3: as people have been mentioning - there wasn't enough time to implement individual fire plans (so how the hell do you evacuate whole towns??)

We don't know why a lot of these people died.

What we aren't hearing about is how many people survived because of their plans.

The media is doing a swell job of focussing on the negatives.

We do know that (again) a lot were caught out in their cars, which shouldn't have happened. 

CARS DO NOT PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE BARRIER TO RADIANT HEAT AND ARE FULL OF TOXIC PLASTICS.

I think a lot of you should put you blame finger back into your pocket until we know what were the reasons behind these people's deaths.

The CFA constantly reviews it's policies after every major blaze.

It is not like the government.

if it finds a better system - IT WILL IMPLEMENT IT.


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## Calliope (10 February 2009)

Julia said:


> I don't understand why people would risk their lives to save a house.
> Houses can be rebuilt.




It is instinctive in all animals that their home is a safe haven, a place where you should feel secure in a time of danger. It goes against every instinct to flee the home.

I shall never forget the image of my wife, with tears streaming down her face and clutching the cat (which was as reluctant to leave as we were) when we were finally forced to step off the verandah into a waiting boat during the Brisbane 1974 floods.

But we were never in any physical danger. I cannot even hazard a guess as to what my reactions would be in in a firestorm when the realisation hits you that your safe haven has become your enemy.


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## MrBurns (10 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> you can't evacuate a whole state.
> some of the things people here are suggesting are physically impossible to implement.
> 1: no one knows where the fires will start.
> 2: huge amounts of people live in 'high risk' areas
> ...




No one is looking to a volunteer organisation to fix these things it's up to the State Govt.

People keep harping on about how you cant evacuate a whole state, well no ones saying that.

Whats being said by me and it's now in the media is that the warnings were not strong enough. I walked out of my house in suburban Melbourne on Saturday morning and was hit by a blast furnace of heat combined with strong winds.

I knew then that Saturday would be trouble, but the authorities did not stress the urgency enough for people to understand that their lives were at stake.

Furthermore the forecast should have been enough to act on with these warnings, the previous week had already had several 40+ days.

The conditions Saturday were the worst I've ever seen and look at the result, so why didn't the authorities hit the panic button the day before ???

There will be a Royal Commission now, I usually think they are a waste of time but I fully support this one and the findings will be as above I've got no doubt.


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## tech/a (10 February 2009)

> The only reason I think that Adelaide escaped it (our hills are within 7k's of the CBD) was because we had a cool change at 1.30 pm.




I regularly drive between Willunga to Mt Barker to Gawler.

During the last outbreak of 37c+ days I have never seen such a police/EFS presence on the roads.
Dozens of them everywhere.

If a fire doesn't start or your on top of an outbreak as quickly as possible then you have a better chance of avoiding disaster.

Plus the Harrowgate arsonist (a 40 yr old mother!!!!!) is in jail.

We were lucky this time.


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## sam76 (10 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> No one is looking to a volunteer organisation to fix these things it's up to the State Govt.
> 
> People keep harping on about how you cant evacuate a whole state, well no ones saying that.
> 
> ...




I support the commisssion as well and the results will be implemented  by the CFA.

I really can't agree with you on the warnings though mate.

Just because you didn't see many of them doesn't mean they weren't there.

*Just like you can't expect a fire truck in a fire nor can you expect an individual warning.*

*a lot of it comes down to common sense as well.*

You live in a city and the risks are not there for you (as much)

Most people who live with wildfire risk on a day-to-day basis would have known.


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## sam76 (10 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> The conditions Saturday were the worst I've ever seen and look at the result, so why didn't the authorities hit the panic button the day before ???




just out of interest Mr. Burns.

How would you have done things differently in the lead up to Saurday?

I wont question what you write - i'm just interested.


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## Prospector (10 February 2009)

tech/a said:


> I regularly drive between Willunga to Mt Barker to Gawler.
> 
> During the last outbreak of 37c+ days I have never seen such a police/EFS presence on the roads.  Dozens of them everywhere.
> 
> ...





They were certainly targetting known arsonists.  Apparently we have quite a number of them!

I wonder if the commission will look at preventive issues such as requiring people not to use more than 155l/day, and not being able to water gardens.


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## sam76 (10 February 2009)

I guess another thing is that you can warn people as much as you like.

If they don't want to go they don't have to go.

You can't make them leave.

and we all know how stupid people can be....


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## MrBurns (10 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> I support the commisssion as well and the results will be implemented  by the CFA.
> I really can't agree with you on the warnings though mate.
> Just because you didn't see many of them doesn't mean they weren't there.
> Just like you can't expect a fire truck in a fire nor can you expect an individual warning.
> ...




Just spoke to a friend who lives in the Dandenongs, he says they are more prepared in the hills but in the Yarra Valley and Kinglake they havent had a big fire since the 30's

He reckons the locals had no hope because they had no advice beforehand about when to get out.

He and friends leave the mountain when it's looking dodgy they dont wait.

There's 200 odd lives gone here and people will expect things to be done differently from now on and not just accept it as unavoidable.


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## MrBurns (10 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> just out of interest Mr. Burns.
> 
> How would you have done things differently in the lead up to Saurday?
> 
> I wont question what you write - i'm just interested.




Sam , when the forecast was known on Friday I would have issued a urgent warning through the media to leave areas that would be effected by bushfire, either move to safe areas or leave for the day and just go elsewhere and go in the morning do not wait and do not try to defend property.

That means the Dandenongs and other areas.

I know it's a big ask but if people decide to stay after the warning thats their business but I would have the warning out there as strong and as early as possible.


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## sam76 (10 February 2009)

Thanks.


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## MrBurns (10 February 2009)

Whats funny Sam I'd really like to know.


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## SM Junkie (10 February 2009)

Our community spirit is just amazing, so many people doing so much to help the victims of the bush fires.  Here we are on the other side of the country and our little town is organising a fundraising BBQ and a local charity has organised a truck to take community donations to VIC.  It is so wonderful to see so many people pulling together to help.


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## sam76 (10 February 2009)

oh did you read that?

I thought it was unfair that i wrote that so i deleted it.

Look i don't have all the answers and I value the debate

off the top of my head and without consulting any of my books.

But putting so many people on the road at the one time "evacuating" is a very dangerous thing to do especially on the day of a fire.

Where are they all going to go?

How are they going to get there?

How do you tell them all that it's now to late to evacuate as there is a fire in the area? people will be on the roads with fire in the area.

You open yourself up to all sorts of responsibilities/litigations "you told us to leave but we went straight into the fire etc..."

What happens if there is an accident (very likely in times of panic/confusion) and thefore a traffic jam on the roads?

They all become sitting ducks and the death toll will be huge.

you make a vaild point about getting people out early enough but it aint that simple (which you mentioned)

I do this stuff for a living and until (if) something better comes out of this commission I will stand by the current policy.

These plans have saved countless lives before and are proven to work.

There will be anomolies though and perhaps a rethink is required forthise days - got me buggered how they will implement it though.

but i thank you for your opinion.


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## MrBurns (10 February 2009)

If they gave the warning on the basis of the forecast the day before there would be time.

Granted you're not going to get conditions like saturday again in a long time but that was an obvious one if you lived in or near the bush you should go to a shopping center for the day.

Yes I thought of the traffic problem they would just have to deploy police to dea l with it.

No it's not easy but you cant just put it in the too hard basket.


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## daisy (10 February 2009)

SM Junkie said:


> Our community spirit is just amazing, so many people doing so much to help the victims of the bush fires.  Here we are on the other side of the country and our little town is organising a fundraising BBQ and a local charity has organised a truck to take community donations to VIC.  It is so wonderful to see so many people pulling together to help.




That's lovely.
One of the things I had to send up to my friend in Ingham floods was underwear. Lots of clothes and things have been donated by people who weren't flooded out and for which she was grateful but she was having trouble wearing someone else's knickers.
I guess it would be the same for the bushfire victims.


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## Agentm (10 February 2009)

just two words please to remember..

RESPECT the feelings of those out there dealing with the death and destruction of this disaster on their watch as they tirelessly work to save lives and property.

CALM down your emotion on the blame... its not anyones fault, even with 200 "elvis": helicopters and 20 times the manpower, there would be no difference to the outcome..  it was one fire that no one could do anything about..

to all that are suffering loss in this, my heart goes to you..

to the people involved in all facets of this disaster, from the front line to the teams co ordinating this,  what they have faced and seen and done has not been acknowledged. i salute you all.  we owe them an enormous debt of gratitude  it time to stop the blame and support the effort, its not over yet..


----------



## MrBurns (10 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> just two words please to remember..
> 
> RESPECT the feelings of those out there dealing with the death and destruction of this disaster on their watch as they tirelessly work to save lives and property.
> 
> ...




Agreed, the people at the front are the salt of the earth God bless them and keep them safe.


----------



## korrupt_1 (10 February 2009)

My  worth...

With today's technology, advanced weather forecasting, etc... I'm still shocked and horified at the death toll!!! predicted to be >200 dead and many others with burns and scars that will be with them for life... so sad...

Don't know how to help other than donating all my profits from yesterday's trading... wish I could do more than just give money...


----------



## sam76 (10 February 2009)

They are in desperate need of:

Toiletries - Shampoo / Toothbrushes / Toothpaste / Soap etc
Underwear - New with tags still on


----------



## MrBurns (10 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> They are in desperate need of:
> 
> Toiletries - Shampoo / Toothbrushes / Toothpaste / Soap etc
> Underwear - New with tags still on




I thought they preferred the cash via Salvos ?


----------



## sam76 (10 February 2009)

for people who are far away from the centres, yes cash is the best.

but if you live close and have these spare then please donate them.

sorry should have been more specific in first post.


----------



## MrBurns (10 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> for people who are far away from the centres, yes cash is the best.
> 
> but if you live close and have these spare then please donate them.
> 
> sorry should have been more specific in first post.




Yes you'd have to live right in there otherwise you'd be accused of sightseeing if you tried to get in, I wouldnt even try.


----------



## ghotib (10 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> If they gave the warning on the basis of the forecast the day before there would be time.
> 
> Granted you're not going to get conditions like saturday again in a long time but that was an obvious one if you lived in or near the bush you should go to a shopping center for the day.
> 
> ...



The Canberra fires were only 6 years ago. The last really big bushfires in the Blue Mountains were 8 years ago, and they came only 7 years after the previous big fire season. 

I don't think we can count on very long till the next time. 

I also think that we need to be wary of trying to make the same set of rules for all areas. Topography, weather patterns, settlement patterns, road conditions, vegetation, and probably lots of other things all need to be taken into account. And even then, sometimes it comes down to luck. 

Ghoti


----------



## Prospector (10 February 2009)

One thing that has to be sorted out pretty quickly is what exactly went wrong.  South Australia is still at risk of a bushfire for at least the next 6 weeks, and if this was on the scale of the Victorian fires, then many more than 200 will perish.  And it would threaten Adelaide proper.  I dont think that is playing the blame game, but just trying to ensure it will be done better next time.


----------



## Calliope (10 February 2009)

Germaine Greer gets it right. 


Germaine Greer, in The Times of London, sets the record straight on the role of global warming in bushfires:

FIRE is an essential element in the life cycle of Australian forests. Season by season sclerophyll or hard-leaved woodlands build up huge amounts of detritus, which must burn if there is to be new growth.

For 40 or maybe 60 millennia, Aboriginal peoples managed fire proactively, setting alight woodland, scrubland and grassland, so that they could pass freely, so that game was driven towards them, so that fresh green herbage was available. Aboriginal languages have dozens of words for fire. As the Endeavour sailed up the eastern coast, Captain Cook noted that the skies were darkened with smoke by day and lit up by fire at night.

Bushland that is not burned regularly turns into a powder keg, as the fuel load inexorably increases. The cause of these disasters is not global warming; still less is it arson. It is the failure to recognise that fire is an intrinsic feature of eucalypt bushland. It cannot be prevented but it can and should be managed. Unless there is a fundamental change of policy across all levels of government in Australia, there will be more and worse fires and more deaths.


----------



## MrBurns (10 February 2009)

Just made a donation thru the Salvos, and they asked "and how did you find out about donating through the Salvos." What a stupid question, doing market research at a time like this.


----------



## MrBurns (10 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Germaine Greer gets it right.
> 
> 
> Germaine Greer, in The Times of London, sets the record straight on the role of global warming in bushfires:
> ...




Absolutely correct.


----------



## ghotib (10 February 2009)

On the subject of hazard reduction burning in Gippsland, this is from Robert Gottliebson in Business Spectator. Not that he has any particular knowledge of fire or bush management as far as I know, but at least he's closer to it than Good Ole Germs:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Conversations/National-emergencies-P437H?OpenDocument

This is the intro:  


> ... a remarkable set of statements from Craig Ingram, Independent State Member for East Gippsland which were published in January 2007 in the East Gippsland News.  Ingram details the issues he faced in getting fuel reduction issues addressed by both the Kennett and Bracks/Brumby governments.  I have subtracted out the political sniping that went with the Ingram statements because  what we have is an invaluable description  of what was going  wrong prior to the 2002-03 Gippsland fires...




Ghoti


----------



## Prospector (10 February 2009)

Hell Calliope, there is something wrong with me; I seem to be agreeing with you too much lately!


----------



## Agentm (10 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Germaine Greer gets it right.
> 
> 
> Germaine Greer, in The Times of London, sets the record straight on the role of global warming in bushfires:
> ...




garbage, just wrong on all levels here

germaine greer is so wrong on so much she is hardly credible..


Published scientific research such as the recent paper by Williams, Karoly and Tapper (2001), clearly sets out how global climate change is “likely to have a significant effect on biosphere-atmosphere interactions, including bushfire regimes…by increasing the number of days of very high and extreme fire danger.” *Resorting to more burning in the face of such changes is simplistic and irresponsible.*

*frequent burning can make us more vulnerable to fire, not less, by promoting fire-prone species and conditions.*

there are too many myths about burning off

suggest reading this study for instance..  

http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cach...lia&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=9&gl=au&client=firefox-a


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## Prospector (10 February 2009)

If burning off is such a bad idea (and I bet there are plenty of scientific articles that will argue it isn't) why do we keep doing it in South Australia.  And please, enough about the mantra 'global climate change'.  We just broke the heat spell set in 1908 - was there global warming back then?

And if bushfires are not a naturally occurring phenomena (they are only an issue now because people like to live in densely wooded areas) why are the seeds of some species only able to germinate after being burnt by fire.


----------



## Calliope (10 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> there are too many myths about burning off
> 
> suggest reading this study for instance




Well the WAFA would say that...wouldn't they? They are part of the problem and are in denial.


----------



## tech/a (10 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> I guess another thing is that you can warn people as much as you like.
> 
> If they don't want to go they don't have to go.
> 
> ...




There is a simple solution

Below Ground Bunkers.
Infact a Wambat hole did the trick.

As for housing.
Double pump (Very big) Petrol driven (Below ground). Saturation (From stored water) capable of 60,000 litres /hr
Would save most homes.

Too expensive?
Make it part of housing approval.
Ask anyone who lost a loved one or home!


----------



## sam76 (10 February 2009)

tech/a said:


> There is a simple solution
> 
> Below Ground Bunkers.
> Infact a Wambat hole did the trick.




it would want to be deep otherwise....ever had a hungi or cooked damper?


----------



## kincella (10 February 2009)

wombat hole...or old gold digging holes...lady wildlife carer at yackandandah ne vic today...thought she was safe..but fire turning. back..she said she would take the animals into a wombat hole for safety....how big is a wombat hole ??? or maybe it was an unused gold mine...anyway it was a hole in the ground..


----------



## kincella (10 February 2009)

survivors stories coming out....fires were 50-60 klm or more away...apparently they were not aware or thought it was a little threat ???? 

then less than 5 mins to get out....lot of those areas are only one road in or out....so in the smoke, trees down, they had no hope.... one bloke had the 3 kids and dog in the car, ready to go...went back into the house..came out to find the car on fire..he survived, kids did not

others saw the flames, heard the massive roar of the fire, knew there was no hope of getting out
I have friends in Albury,,,,Beechworth fire and other areas around are less than an hours drive away....they are aware the fire could come close...last time of the big fires around beechworth...embers were blowing onto these houses in central albury....they could not see 6' in front of them...

so in a lot of cases...since looking at 300 dead now, they were waiting , too late, to get out....so no choice, stay or run....
or maybe they thought a fire an hour away was a long way off ???...who knows....
or maybe they had nowhere to run to anyway ????


----------



## moXJO (10 February 2009)

kincella said:


> wombat hole...or old gold digging holes...lady wildlife carer at yackandandah ne vic today...thought she was safe..but fire turning. back..she said she would take the animals into a wombat hole for safety....how big is a wombat hole ??? or maybe it was an unused gold mine...anyway it was a hole in the ground..




Wombat holes get pretty big. You can crawl down them easily. Just watch out for the wombat.


----------



## korrupt_1 (10 February 2009)

was looking at some of the houses in Kinglake via Google streetview....

some property were not bush fire ready... houses had overgrown trees right up to the door steps.

i mean no disrepect to those affected, but damn... some houses were just asking for trouble with that amount of growth around the property!

infact, driving through the adelaide hills the other weekened, i recall the exact thing... houses with trees growing right up to the side of the house.... i'm not sure if being 'bush fire ready' means cleaning the gutter of leaf litter and having hoses at the front and back is enough.... more needs to be done.


----------



## Glen48 (10 February 2009)

If people want to live in these areas they have to spend their own money to  fire proof their property.
The other problem is will they be able to get insurance???
A question which should be answered before building starts.
Wonder how long until the next round of fires?


----------



## Agentm (10 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Well the WAFA would say that...wouldn't they? They are part of the problem and are in denial.




i dont agree at all, they have many times more bushfires than victoria and they have obviously had to, by necessity, gain more understandings of it, 

WA has spent 66% of its disaster relief capital from 1967 -1999 on bushfires, vic 34%


----------



## kincella (10 February 2009)

mobile phones probably not working either....family in Wangaratta, edge of national park,..has the new phone since dec, supposed to work in the area...hilly...nope, think hes looking at satelite coverage, but will have to buy another phone...assume similar problems at king lake..
and had to cut off his landline...last fire last year...telstra stuffed up, he and neighbours calls get crossed..for over a year now...
and if electicity goes down...so does your landline..


----------



## Agentm (10 February 2009)

from what i got told the radio tower on top of a hill in the kinglake region has a ring of green around it and stands out in a lunar landscape, the police communications tower is kinda a twisted mess of metal near by..

i think the best was done at the  time to make sure the cfa communications system was in place for the critical teams up there.. 

it seems elvis may have had a hand to play in that..

a lot of kinglake is out of mobile coverage in any case most of the time.  the landlines went out with the power when the power poles burnt or the trees fell over them shortly after the firestorm.. i know my mother was calling my sister as th fireball was coming through kinglake and they were all outside dealing with the fire.. 10 minutes later nothing.. 

thats when you really get concerned about you family.. 

i know telstra has a free mobile recharging point at kinglake now for all residents so some regions mus t have some coverage.


----------



## drsmith (10 February 2009)

ghotib said:


> On the subject of hazard reduction burning in Gippsland, this is from Robert Gottliebson in Business Spectator. Not that he has any particular knowledge of fire or bush management as far as I know, but at least he's closer to it than Good Ole Germs:
> 
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Conversations/National-emergencies-P437H?OpenDocument
> 
> ...



While nowhere near on the scale of the Victorian fires, the 1961 fires in the southwest of WA which devastated a number of communities ushered in an era of controlled fuel reduction burning which goes on to this day.

In a post analysis of the Victorian fires the West Australian expereince will no doubt offer valuable insight into the benefits or otherwise of fuel reduction burning.

http://www.dec.wa.gov.au/index2.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_view&gid=2844&Itemid=99999999


----------



## Calliope (10 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> i dont agree at all, they have many times more bushfires than victoria and they have obviously had to, by necessity, gain more understandings of it,
> 
> WA has spent 66% of its disaster relief capital from 1967 -1999 on bushfires, vic 34%




Of course WA has more bushfires than Victoria. WA is a huge state and the vast majority of their fires occur in sparsely populated areas, where fires can't be controlled, as you map shows.

WA is the only state to have controlled burning on a rotational basis, and this  minimises the risk in the more populated areas of the South West.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (10 February 2009)

I think the arsonists should be tied to poles and burnt alive. eye for an eye


----------



## Julia (10 February 2009)

>Apocalypto< said:


> I think the arsonists should be tied to poles and burnt alive. eye for an eye



Given that arson is usually a sole person, secretive crime I imagine it will be very hard to prove.


----------



## darnsmall (11 February 2009)

One question, last Friday, I was relaxing in Coogee at our pad by the beach when we heard a warning about extreme bushfire danger in VIC. Paid no attention except to wish all the best for my old town near Falls Creek. 

What happened to the peeps in VIC, whats with the communication if I can get a warning in Coogee for bushfires in VIC?
Is it just our slow ability to react and or listen?
I can remember when Coogee got a warning last year for a Tsunami, it took me a good couple of hours to react; because it was such a nice day on the beach...it was a perfect sunny day with no peeps on the beach; mid week. Thinking to myself I'll just run up the road if the wave comes, and then thinking...I really hope I don't die because I'm one of those idiots that doesn't react to a warning for something as simple as spending a few hours on an empty sydney beach...god that would look stupid. 

Did all these peeps just take a risk thinking they could walk away if **** went down, jump in the car and drive away? I saw some peeps on ABC news last night that didn't seem to be taking it too seriously...they were trying to prepare with 'buckets' and saying..."yeah if it gets within 10m will leave" perhaps there needs to be better bush education on fires


----------



## sam76 (11 February 2009)

you hear stories of people trying to clean gutters as the fire approaches....

Clearly underprepared and complacent.


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

Article from Robert Gottliebsen, very interesting and probably true - 

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/bushfires-$pd20090210-P4U79?OpenDocument&src=ea&ir=4


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

Here's a post from another forum, very descriptive.



> The lucky ones if you can call them that, had about half an hour, to an hour.
> 
> For most, the fire was on them in the virtual blink of an eye. That's because the wind was moving at up to 100 miles an hour. People on the radio have been talking about how so many thought the fire was dozens of miles way...then the next minute, the sky turned black and angry red before the houses and trees around them exploded into flame.
> 
> ...


----------



## Prospector (11 February 2009)

We had several deliberately lit fires yesterday in the Adelaide Hills! 

Thankfully the weather is not bushfire weather, we have even had some drizzle, but these people need to be put in jail every fire season.

One shocking interview last night told of a woman whose next door neighbour was trapped inside.  All she can now think about is the noises of him screaming.  The survivors will need a lot of help.

I heard a Fire Ecologist from Uni of Melb this morning.  He said that someone he knows had paid out thousands of dollars in fines in 'illegally' clearing out lots of trees and vegetation from the surrounds of his house.  His house is now the only one left standing in his area.    He commented he was now poor, but he still had his house.

And this has now been recognised internationally as the biggest bushfire for 150 years.


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

I agree with this too, KRudd linking bushfire relief to the stimulus package to get it through is an act of pure bastardry.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/11/2488110.htm?section=justin


----------



## cuttlefish (11 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> it would want to be deep otherwise....ever had a hungi or cooked damper?





With a hungi the rocks are placed on top of the fuel and heat up in the fire then fall through and the food is placed on top of/amongst the rocks.  The earth then covers it up and seals in the heat creating an oven effect.  

This is extremely different to being underground when a fire is passing overhead.

Heat and smoke radiate upwards.  The earth below a fire does not heat up to very great depth.

An underground bunker or wombat hole indeed would be good places to go - ideally well sealed at the entrance like the steel cellar door example - and with adequate air supply to last the duration of the main firestorm passing over.     

Constructing some sort of underground shelter like this in each small town would be relatively low cost, the maintenance requirement once constructed would be minimal, and would have the potential to save many lives imo.


----------



## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

cuttlefish said:


> With a hungi the rocks are placed on top of the fuel and heat up in the fire then fall through and the food is placed on top of/amongst the rocks.  The earth then covers it up and seals in the heat creating an oven effect.
> 
> This is extremely different to being underground when a fire is passing overhead.
> 
> ...




Hungi, best outdoor food I have ever eaten! YUM


----------



## cuttlefish (11 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> These plans have saved countless lives before and are proven to work.



This is a ridiculous statement.   There are 180 people dead.  Clearly these plans have been 100% proven to NOT WORK.


In North Queensland when there is a cyclone off the coast, even if it is not an immediate threat, there are regular short television and radio broadcasts giving location, speed, direction and status - these broadcasts interrupt the running program, last for about a minute and are accompanied by a loud siren sound.  They are extremely effective and if ever there is a cyclone about it would be extremely difficult not to know.  I'm not sure of the exact intervals, but as a cyclone becomes a threat to an area they shorten - e.g. it might be once every couple of hours if the cyclone is a day or two away, down to every 30 minutes if the cyclone is presenting an immediate threat.

The loud siren sound accompanying the warning is a very effective psychological tool to instill genuine alarm and make the listener alert to possible threat - also everybody in the region knows that if they want to know where the cyclone is there will be an update on its exact position, speed and direction at regular intervals.   This allows them to make their own decisions on whether it is safer to seek shelter at the location they are at or whether they realistically have time to attempt to move to a safer place. 

Were these sorts of warnings in place in Victoria?


----------



## inrodwetrust (11 February 2009)

It seems some greenie councilors have some explaining ...

Council ignored warning over trees before Victoria bushfires



> THE shire council covering some of the areas hit hardest by the bushfires was warned five years ago that its policy of encouraging people to grow trees near their homes to give the appearance of a forest would lead to disaster.
> 
> One of Australia's leading bushfire experts, Rod Incoll, warned Nillumbik Shire Council in a 2003 report that it risked devastation if it went ahead with changes to planning laws proposed by green groups that restricted the removal of vegetation.




.....



> Mr Incoll and Mr Packham both produced reports for the group. "There was a planning process under the auspices of the state planning authority, and David (Packham) and I gave lengthy evidence," Mr Incoll said.
> 
> "They took no notice whatsoever of what we said."






> Some areas had very strict controls about the removal of vegetation, "trees being the holy green icon", he said. "Removal of trees is quite an effort in many municipalities and Nillumbik is one of them."




Can they be charged with negligence?


----------



## kincella (11 February 2009)

I have decided that the underground bunker is a terrific idea....and even expanded to provide underground housing for the animals....horses, dogs, cattle etc....
or a group pool together, or get govt funding and provide a community bunker for the people and another one for animals...everybodies safe...
have advised a family member, living in a fire prone area to build one for himself and another for his horse....and maybe another for storage of treasures, documents etc
he has the bulldozer....what are those containers worth to buy ??
cheers


----------



## kincella (11 February 2009)

a survivor was scathing of the cfa video...it showed a grassfire running along the ground...he said he could handle that.....the reality was a 4 story monster  of a fireball coming down from the sky.........
rubbish not to blame anyone..... those in power need to take and accept the blame....including the residents....
brumby said 500,000 people would have needed to be evacuated...where would they go....
I suggest a community protection area...underground..then make them evacuate to that area
the vic govt dithering about spending 10 million for an alert that phones everyone....
however if the power is gone..then the telephone does not work either...
and the mobile phones do not work or cut out....
so in hindsight they were probably right....but other areas that do have reliable phones could use it


----------



## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

Even better! 

Why don't the Vics go over to SA and talk to locals in Coober Pedy about how to build stable structures underground? 

They don't have a lot of vegetation there to worry about. I'm sure they can help with the underground aspect once it eventuates 20 years from now when the dams are empty..:1zhelp:


----------



## cuttlefish (11 February 2009)

I see there is another thread on underground shelters.  Raised in there is a good point in relation to steel being a strong conductor of heat, so if any part of the container is exposed to heat it will radiate around the entire container, so an earth bunker would probably be better - though as long as the entire container was well underground it probably wouldn't matter.

Its nice to see some discussion on practical constructive solutions to preventing this level of life loss in the future.


----------



## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

cuttlefish said:


> I see there is another thread on underground shelters.  Raised in there is a good point in relation to steel being a strong conductor of heat, so if any part of the container is exposed to heat it will radiate around the entire container, so an earth bunker would probably be better - though as long as the entire container was well underground it probably wouldn't matter.
> 
> Its nice to see some discussion on practical constructive solutions to preventing this level of life loss in the future.




So are you saying that it's a given or a fait accompli, that people will have to build underground bunkers beneath their properties in Victoria CF? And if so would you say because of the lack of precipitation within the old-growth forest areas of Victoria or because it's a naturally occuring event that people should prepare and protect themselves for?

http://www.melbournewater.com.au/content/water/water_storages/water_storages.asp?bhcp=1


----------



## Prospector (11 February 2009)

cuttlefish said:


> The loud siren sound accompanying the warning is a very effective psychological tool to instill genuine alarm and make the listener alert to possible threat -
> 
> Were these sorts of warnings in place in Victoria?




They would needed to have evacuated most of country Victoria.


----------



## spooly74 (11 February 2009)

kincella said:


> I have decided that the underground bunker is a terrific idea....and even expanded to provide underground housing for the animals....horses, dogs, cattle etc....
> or a group pool together, or get govt funding and provide a community bunker for the people and another one for animals...everybodies safe...
> have advised a family member, living in a fire prone area to build one for himself and another for his horse....and maybe another for storage of treasures, documents etc
> he has the bulldozer....what are those containers worth to buy ??
> cheers




You can get a large 40ft HQ for around the 2-3 grand mark.

Our company buys them through freight forwarders to convert to potable water storage. Port SA or Port Melb would be your best option to avoid excessive transport costs.


----------



## Prospector (11 February 2009)

inrodwetrust said:


> It seems some greenie councilors have some explaining ...Can they be charged with negligence?




Just to repeat myself


Prospector said:


> I heard a Fire Ecologist from Uni of Melb this morning.  He said that someone he knows had paid out thousands of dollars in Council fines in 'illegally' clearing out lots of trees and vegetation from the surrounds of his house.  His house is now the only one left standing in his area.


----------



## Bushman (11 February 2009)

cuttlefish said:


> I see there is another thread on underground shelters.  Raised in there is a good point in relation to steel being a strong conductor of heat, so if any part of the container is exposed to heat it will radiate around the entire container, so an earth bunker would probably be better - though as long as the entire container was well underground it probably wouldn't matter.
> 
> Its nice to see some discussion on practical constructive solutions to preventing this level of life loss in the future.




They've had bunkers before (in the Dandenongs) and the problem was that people suffocated in them due to the vacuum that precedes the fire. If you can secure the air supply, then it would be an effective measure against the radiant heat. 

As for the CFA, their manual has not caught up with a warmer, drier Victoria. I am not interested in this insidious 'climate change' debate; the reality is that Victoria is experiencing drier summers and a lack of rainfall and, in these conditions, the fuel load of the fire means that some fires will be 'unsurvivable' no matter what training local inhabitants have. 

Councils need to start making long-term weather predictions and make sure that they do not approve 'tree change' developments in vulnerable positions in fire prone areas. Make no mistake about it - the Kinglake complex death toll is because those towns have had an influx of population of late and are on elevated postions right next door to a national park.


----------



## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

Bushman said:


> They've had bunkers before (in the Dandenongs) and the problem was that people suffocated in them due to the vacuum that precedes the fire. If you can secure the air supply, then it would be an effective measure against the radiant heat.
> 
> As for the CFA, their manual has not caught up with a warmer, drier Victoria. I am not interested in this insidious 'climate change' debate; the reality is that Victoria is experiencing drier summers and a lack of rainfall and, in these conditions, the fuel load of the fire means that some fires will be 'unsurvivable' no matter what training local inhabitants have.
> 
> Councils need to start making long-term weather predictions and make sure that they do not approve 'tree change' developments in vulnerable positions in fire prone areas. Make no mistake about it - the Kinglake complex death toll is because those towns have had an influx of population of late and are on elevated postions right next door to a national park.




To the point post Bushman.


----------



## kincella (11 February 2009)

spooly, for some reason I thought they may have been a couple of hundred dollars...see quotes of 2300 melb plus 850 to freight to wangaratta...
and there needs to be an engineer...regarding how much dirt on the top..etc how much weight could they carry...am thinking probably be a bit more to it, then just dig a hole and cover the container....
a couple of thousand sounds cheap to save lives
or maybe I should look at those underground houses...
maybe concrete support underground.....
and surely most people are not stupid to think they would leave one of those things in the sun....to cook all and sundry inside...but then again...who knows how stupid some people are


----------



## kincella (11 February 2009)

Bushman...the idea of underground bunkers is to avoid the radiant heat.....are you saying people underground would still be exposed to it....
or did people just have the containers on top of the ground ???


----------



## sam76 (11 February 2009)

cuttlefish said:


> This is a ridiculous statement.   There are 180 people dead.  Clearly these plans have been 100% proven to NOT WORK.
> 
> 
> In North Queensland when there is a cyclone off the coast, even if it is not an immediate threat, there are regular short television and radio broadcasts giving location, speed, direction and status - these broadcasts interrupt the running program, last for about a minute and are accompanied by a loud siren sound.  They are extremely effective and if ever there is a cyclone about it would be extremely difficult not to know.  I'm not sure of the exact intervals, but as a cyclone becomes a threat to an area they shorten - e.g. it might be once every couple of hours if the cyclone is a day or two away, down to every 30 minutes if the cyclone is presenting an immediate threat.
> ...




We don't even know how these people died!!! 

Many I bet would be fleeing last minute or defending an ill prepared home.

How many people survived _because_ of the plans????????

Just last night the Deputy Chief Officer was saying that these plans are still the best we have.

All the work emails i receive are stating the same.

Science has proven it and years of practice backs it up.

I stand by my statement.


----------



## Bushman (11 February 2009)

kincella said:


> Bushman...the idea of underground bunkers is to avoid the radiant heat.....are you saying people underground would still be exposed to it....
> or did people just have the containers on top of the ground ???




I believe the vacuum sucks the air out of the bunkers as the fire front passes over them, depriving its inhabitants of air; hence they suffocate. The radiant heat is not the problem. 

They were discussing it on 774 3LO a few days ago.


----------



## cuttlefish (11 February 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> So are you saying that it's a given or a fait accompli, that people will have to build underground bunkers beneath their properties in Victoria CF? And if so would you say because of the lack of precipitation within the old-growth forest areas of Victoria or because it's a naturally occuring event that people should prepare and protect themselves for?
> 
> http://www.melbournewater.com.au/content/water/water_storages/water_storages.asp?bhcp=1





Its a naturally occurring event - they will happen - what upsets me about the current loss of lives is that Ash Wednesday where 75 people were killed doesn't seem that long ago to me.   If someone decides to make the bush their lifelong home, it is highly likely they will experience the threat of a serious bushfire at some stage in their time there.



			
				Bushman said:
			
		

> They've had bunkers before (in the Dandenongs) and the problem was that people suffocated in them due to the vacuum that precedes the fire. If you can secure the air supply, then it would be an effective measure against the radiant heat.




Cheers for the info.   So they need to try to address the oxygen supply issue for the duration of time that the firestorm front passes over (which I'm assuming is a relatively short period of time).   A fully sealed bunker that was closed just before the vacuum effect hit would have oxygen to last a reasonable period of time I would assume - but there are numerous approaches that could be considered to deal with the oxygen issue.



			
				prospector said:
			
		

> They would needed to have evacuated most of country Victoria



Evacuation, particularly at a late hour, does sound impractical so some sort of measure for surviving in-place seems like the better area to focus on.


----------



## Calliope (11 February 2009)

Bushman said:


> As for the CFA, their manual has not caught up with a warmer, drier Victoria. I am not interested in this insidious 'climate change' debate; the reality is that Victoria is experiencing drier summers and a lack of rainfall and, in these conditions, the fuel load of the fire means that some fires will be 'unsurvivable' no matter what training local inhabitants have.




If similar climactic conditions that preceded the Victorian fires were to occur in SE Qld (and nothing can be ruled out) the devastation in Brisbane's so called leafy suburbs would be horrendous. Thousands of homes are hardly visible from the air. Many back yards and gardens are indistinguishable from the surrounding bush.

And more and more retirees are opting for a "tree change" rather than a "sea change."


----------



## cuttlefish (11 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> We don't even know how these people died!!!
> 
> Many I bet would be fleeing last minute or defending an ill prepared home.
> 
> ...




181 deaths <> success.

25 years ago, Ash Wednesday, 75 deaths.  
This time 180+ deaths.

No changes = another tragedy some time in the next 25 years.


----------



## noirua (11 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> If similar climactic conditions that preceded the Victorian fires were to occur in SE Qld (and nothing can be ruled out) the devastation in Brisbane's so called leafy suburbs would be horrendous. Thousands of homes are hardly visible from the air. Many back yards and gardens are indistinguishable from the surrounding bush.
> 
> And more and more retirees are opting for a "tree change" rather than a "sea change."



The cost of providing wide fire breaks, maintaining them and repositioning houses would be enormous. At least there is a chance in parts of Victoria to do this. Where will the fire be next time though?


----------



## sam76 (11 February 2009)

cuttlefish said:


> 181 deaths <> success.
> 
> 25 years ago, Ash Wednesday, 75 deaths.
> This time 180+ deaths.
> ...





Of course there will be changes!

Read my previous posts - The CFA will adapt if it finds a better way to protect the community.

My beef is you said the current plans failed 100%

WHICH IS WRONG.


----------



## brty (11 February 2009)

Hi,

Many points to consider.

1. All types of restrictions on new property will not help tens of thousands of houses that still exist in fire prone areas, including some outer suburbs of Melbourne that are a disaster waiting to happen.

2. Instead of fire bunkers, we all need to have underground cellars .

3. Perhaps bushfire prevention spending should be tax deductable, it will get people to actually do something.

4. Green councils and environment officers need their butts kicked over what is appropriate vegetation to plant around houses. Native gardens are great, until they burn.

5. Water. Victoria needs it for farms and gardens. Something like the Bowring project is needed possibly on a larger scale (Say 20,000 GL instead of his 4,000).
http://www.nalwt.gov.au/files/no-14-bowring.pdf

6. Fire fighter pumps and adequate storage of water, plus systems to put a fog over houses, similar to how firefighters protect themselves in a fireover in a truck. (I am a CFA volunteer and live in the bush)

7. Less, yes less, TFB days and days of telling people to implement their fire plans. Ever heard of the story of the boy who cried Wolf??

brty


----------



## brty (11 February 2009)

Sam,

Current plans did not fail 100%. Some peoples plans worked, some did not have adequate plans. In some instances the plans failed.

There are many stories of people who got out of their houses after the fire had passed, to see the house destroyed behind them. They are complaining that the plans failed, yet staying in the house until it was unbearable was probably what saved them. Yes I acknowledge that it did not work all the time, but it was not 100% wrong.

brty


----------



## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> Of course there will be changes!
> 
> Read my previous posts - The CFA will adapt if it finds a better way to protect the community.
> 
> ...




I have to agree.

It is simply defeatist to start talking about people living in home made caves. If this were the case then land management becomes a secondary issue.

As someone who has lived in the Belgrave area, almost wiped out in Ash Wednesday 1983, all I can say is the vast majority of the community are quite conscious of the threat of bush fire. 

The local council do a regular collection in the Spring of scrub, fallen branches and foilage.

I find it quite alarmist that people now think that hunkering down in underground shelters is the only solution. There are plenty of preventative things that can be done at both a local (community education) and state level (stop logging of forests nearby to State water suppply) that can help to both green and fireproof areas to potential bush fires.

Prevention is the key via responsible participation within the community, not retreat into underground bunkers. 

Most of the area has been drought ravaged for years. And why is that???
Because a bunch of people decided to cling onto trees? Because certain companies were given contracts to NOT log nextdoor to major Victorian water catchments? Because the CFA didn't warn people of the impending danger? 

Wrong on all counts.

The problem is far more complex and if Brumby & Co are going to have an enquiry they better address the real issues, rather than just propose fallout shelters. These areas are rich in wildlife and are inhabited by people. To assume that nothing can be done to turn around Victoria's chronic water shortage problems is also assuming NO vision of sustaining these areas so they don't turn into desolate dust-bowls for generations to come.



http://weather.theage.com.au/local.jsp?lt=aploc&lc=5594&t=f


----------



## cuttlefish (11 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> Of course there will be changes!
> 
> Read my previous posts - The CFA will adapt if it finds a better way to protect the community.
> 
> ...




By 'plans' I'm not talking about the advice given to individuals by the CFA, I'm talking about the way that the State responds to a bushfire crisis.

Clearly the current mechanisms that have been implemented both prior to and during the crisis have been shown not to be succesful in preventing a large loss of lives.   

So I stand by my statement:  







> Clearly these plans have been 100% proven to NOT WORK.




Whatever the State government has been doing for the past 25 years since Ash Wednesday in 1983 and whatever plans were actioned just prior to and during this crisis failed to prevent a repeat occurrence.  

Thus it has clearly not worked and there is 100% evidence of this, because we have had a repeat and actually a far worse outcome.


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

There has to be more clearing, environmental groups that opposed clearing can go bury the dead from this disaster.

I think bunkers are a good idea OR safe areas maintained by the Councils and paid for by a levy on rates, when people see the levy they will be reminded annually that these areas are being maintained for emergencies.(otherwise they'll just forget they're there)

Early evacuation in extreme conditions, it was obvious what was going to happen on Saturday when the forecast came out on Friday.

Why non of this was put in place after ash wednesday and indeed after 1939 is a mystery.



> Early evacuation in extreme conditions, it was obvious what was going to happen on Saturday when the forecast came out on Friday.




Just to clarify I mean strong warnings to leave not mandatory evacuation, but warnings in the strongest language so there is no misunderstanding that by staying they may be in danger of losing their lives.


----------



## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> There has to be more clearing, environmental groups that opposed clearing can go bury the dead from this disaster.




Do you think there needs to be more clearing next door to all the major water catchments in Victoria, Mr Burns?


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Do you think there needs to be more clearing next door to all the major water catchments in Victoria, Mr Burns?




I'm not sure why you would need that ? to get access to water ? I'm not with you there.


----------



## sam76 (11 February 2009)

brty said:


> Sam,
> 
> Current plans did not fail 100%. Some peoples plans worked, some did not have adequate plans. In some instances the plans failed.
> 
> ...





I can't work out if you are agreeing with me or think that i made the original statement.


----------



## sam76 (11 February 2009)

cuttlefish said:


> By 'plans' I'm not talking about the advice given to individuals by the CFA, I'm talking about the way that the State responds to a bushfire crisis.
> 
> Clearly the current mechanisms that have been implemented both prior to and during the crisis have been shown not to be succesful in preventing a large loss of lives.
> 
> ...




You quoted me stating it was a ridiculous statement.

I was talking about CFA bushfire plans and never mentioned The Government

so I guess you've made a misstatement on my original post.


----------



## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I'm not sure why you would need that ? to get access to water ? I'm not with you there.




Well the reason that dams are built is so communities have access to fresh water. In order for those dams to both catch and store that water they require trees in order for the natural cycle of precipitation to occur.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precipitation_(meteorology)

I just remember it from Form 1 science in High School back in the mid-80's. 
Similar to the diagram below I found on wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Water_cycle.png

So if we log around the catchments then science states that less rainfall will occur. Melbourne has had the lowest rainfall and also the lowest water storage on record. Now either this is a once in a century event or de-sal plants will be built in Victoria which will "supposedly" solve the problem. I think they are planning one right now down near Leongatha. FYI

If your still not clear on what I'm talking about, this website has some great info about clearfell logging near Victorian water-catchments.

http://www.vicrainforest.org/Melbwater.php


----------



## cuttlefish (11 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> Well I was talking about CFA bushfire plans and never mentioned The Government
> 
> so I guess you've made a misstatement on my original post.




The CFA is "The Government" and according to their website their goals are:

Goal 1 - Reduce the Impact of Fire and Emergencies in Victoria
Goal 2 - Build and Strengthen Self Reliant, Resilient Communities
Goal 3 - Deliver Quality Services
Goal 4 - Improve the Safety and Capability of CFA
Goal 5 - Effective and Practical Governance System


----------



## brty (11 February 2009)

Apologies Sam, 

I think I am agreeing with you, it was Cuttlefish that seems to have made that statement, and you were quoting him.

brty


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Well the reason that dams are built is so communities have access to fresh water. In order for those dams to both catch and store that water they require trees in order for the natural cycle of precipitation to occur.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precipitation_(meteorology)
> 
> ...




Im no expert just using common sense but there needs to be reasonable clearance around populated areas. If that had been the case here we may have had a bushfire and not a firestorm holocaust, though the conditions on the day meant it would have been one hell of a bushfire in any case.


----------



## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Im no expert just using common sense but there needs to be reasonable clearance around populated areas. If that had been the case here we may have had a bushfire and not a firestorm holocaust, though the conditions on the day meant it would have been one hell of a bushfire in any case.




Well there has been plenty of clearing near the Armstrong and Thomson Catchments for years and not by householders but by business. Many surrounding areas were still engulfed by fire.

The reason - its too dry! No rain. Not "tree-huggers" my friend or volunteer firefighters for that matter. Just business as usual


----------



## Prospector (11 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Im no expert just using common sense but there needs to be reasonable clearance around populated areas. If that had been the case here we may have had a bushfire and not a firestorm holocaust, though the conditions on the day meant it would have been one hell of a bushfire in any case.




Thats the catch; people move to these areas because of the bushland.  On the other hand, Saturday was the worst day I can ever remember, and if a fire had have started in the Adelaide Hills, then many suburbs of Adelaide would have been affected, not just the bushland.


----------



## cuttlefish (11 February 2009)

_The Authority
*CFA falls within the State Government portfolio of the Department of Justice and reports to the Minister of Police and Emergency Services*.

The Authority was constituted under the Country Fire Authority Act 1958 and is ultimately responsible for CFA's overall performance and compliance with legislation and best practice. The Authority is the formal link between the community, the State Government, CFA members and Volunteer Associations.

The 12 member Authority comprises the CFA Chairman and members appointed by the Governor in Council. The Chief Executive Officer (CEO) is appointed by the Authority and is responsible for implementing policies and general business administration._


And on funding:

_Under the Country Fire Authority Act 1958, CFA receives funding of annual estimated expenditure through the State Government, insurance companies (through fire service levies on insurance premiums) and from other companies under Section 80A of the Act.

Total Income
Total income for the 2006/07 year was $323.5m, which is an increase of $85.0m over the previous year’s total of $238.5m. The major reasons for this variation are an increase of $44.8m in government and insurance contributions and $35.7m from recognition of Brigade cash and deposits for the first time. The government contribution included $22.9m in funding to reimburse CFA for the significant costs incurred during the 2007 major fires. Other minor variances occurred in relation to brigade donations received, and brigade-owned vehicles recognised.

Government and Statutory funding
CFA received contributions from government and other sources amounting to $260.3m (2005/06 $215.5m). CFA receives funding of annual expenditure through the Victorian State Government (22.5%), insurance contributions (77.5%), and from other companies under Section 80A of the CFA Act. During 2006/07 statutory contributions totalled $231.9m, comprising $51.1m from the State Government (of which $3.2m was treated as contributed capital), $188.2m from insurance companies, and $9.1m from other companies. In addition, $28.3m was contributed by other government sources._


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Well there has been plenty of clearing near the Armstrong and Thomson Catchments for years and not by householders but by business. Many surrounding areas were still engulfed by fire.
> 
> The reason - its too dry! No rain. Not "tree-huggers" my friend or volunteer firefighters for that matter. Just business as usual




Then we get back to burn offs to reduce the fuel.

Let me put it this way if there isnt a solution then no house in these areas wil be insurable therefor no one will be able to get a mortgage so no one will live there anyway.

Tree huggers stop clearance they worm there way into local councils and nag til people give in.


----------



## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Then we get back to burn offs to reduce the fuel.
> 
> Let me put it this way if there isnt a solution then no house in these areas wil be insurable therefor no one will be able to get a mortgage so no one will live there anyway.
> 
> Tree huggers stop clearance they worm there way into local councils and nag til people give in.




If I had to choose between 

Option 1.Fresh running water to both drink and fight a fire when the time comes and greenies consulting the local council 

or 

Option 2. No fresh running water to both drink and fight a fire when the time comes and greenies banned from the local council.

I would clearly choose option 1. For health and safety reasons

JMO, of course.


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> If I had to choose between
> 
> Option 1.Fresh running water to both drink and fight a fire when the time comes and greenies consulting the local council
> 
> ...




Were you saying if it wasn't for the greenies there would be no trees around dams ? If trees are nessessary I dont think it would take the tree huggers to get that happening.

If dams require trees that would be managed properly by the authorities not extremists.


----------



## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Were you saying if it wasn't for the greenies there would be no trees around dams ? If trees are nessessary I dont think it would take the tree huggers to get that happening.
> 
> If dams require trees that would be managed properly by the authorities not extremists.




Why is Victoria's largest catchment 19% full?


----------



## sam76 (11 February 2009)

you're splitting hairs cuttlefish.


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Why is Victoria's largest catchment 19% full?




Lack of rain.


----------



## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Lack of rain.




Precisely. And how does rain occur?


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Precisely. And how does rain occur?




I dont think the lack of trees around the Thompson is the reason it's low, if that were the case the Vic water supply problem would be fixed.


----------



## GumbyLearner (11 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I dont think the lack of trees around the Thompson is the reason it's low, if that were the case the Vic water supply problem would be fixed.




I rest my case.


----------



## Agentm (11 February 2009)

clueless


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> I rest my case.




This has nothing to do with what I originally said , that is, we need more clearance around populated areas especially undergrowth clearance.


----------



## Bushman (11 February 2009)

Some stats of the superfire - from The Age:





The energy it released was the equivalent of 500 Hiroshima bombs. 

Unsurviveable.


----------



## Prospector (11 February 2009)

Slightly off topic, but given that burnoffs produce huge carbon emissions, a bushfire like this must takes our carbon emissions totally off the radar.  Are we really just playing a game with "global warming" because mother nature does her 'bit' much more 'effectively' than we humans can ever do.


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

There's still 15 or so houses listed for sale in Kinglake and also Marysville on www.realestate.com.au - perhaps they should update - probably waiting for the agents to contact them.


----------



## kincella (11 February 2009)

*Re: Victorian Fires and 1 mill wildlife burnt*

and 4 wildlife shelters in kings lake...but all the animals died...burnt a horrid death....?????? hello....not a precaution to find temp safe home for them,
...................................................................................................
The fires also destroyed four wildlife shelters including Stella Reid's Wildhaven shelter at Kinglake. 

Ms Chappell said Ms Reid escaped with her life, but the animals were not so lucky. 

"It has been a real blow for everybody I think. That is what has really brought it home for everybody, hearing that Stella Reid's place was totalled and all her animals ... they weren't able to get any animals out at all." 
......................................................................................................

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25040020-29277,00.html


----------



## sam76 (11 February 2009)

Questioning the policy

•These fires occurred on the hottest day on record in Victoria, in the worst fire weather conditions ever witnessed.  

•When this emergency is over fire agencies will examine what lessons have been learnt and what improvements can be made to all aspects of the preparation and management of the fires. The “prepare stay and defend a well prepared house or go early” position will be part of that analysis.  This type of analysis is standard with every major fire event and agencies will be involved in their own inquiries as well participating fully in government and coronial inquiries.

•It is too early to draw any conclusion from the weekend’s events

•The Bushfire CRC will conduct independent research on particular aspects of the fire.  These aspects will be determined over the next few days.  

•With the anticipated effects of climate change and with more extreme weather events predicted in the future, the industry will continue to look at how and what messages are delivered to those communities at risk.


----------



## sam76 (11 February 2009)

I can't believe there are scumbags looting.

An hour after a body was removed what's left of the house was ransacked.

IMO just as bad the ****ers who light the fires.


----------



## sam76 (11 February 2009)

simply amazing


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> I can't believe there are scumbags looting.
> 
> An hour after a body was removed what's left of the house was ransacked.
> 
> IMO just as bad the ****ers who light the fires.




The traditional way to deal with looters is to shoot them on sight.


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

I think this will change - 

http://www.theage.com.au/national/majority-of-firebugs-avoid-jail-report-finds-20090202-7vrl.html


----------



## robots (11 February 2009)

hello,

they can start here Mr Burns:

http://www.theage.com.au/national/g...ng-mentally-ill-man-alight-20090211-844c.html

life, or your option

thankyou
robots


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 February 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Why is Victoria's largest catchment 19% full?



Because system load exceeds firm supply capability.

In plain english, that means demand outstrips the ability of the system to sustainably supply it. Attempting to supply that demand will lead to a trend of declining storage levels until such time as either storages are empty or demand and capacity are brought back into balance.

Solutions: More supply by expanding the catchment area (generally achieved by diversions, canals, dams etc), more supply by some other means (tanks, desal, ground water) or less demand. I

If the means of increasing supply or reducing demand is intermittent in nature (diversions into existing storages, tanks etc) then additional large scale storage capacity would also be required. In practice that means a big dam either on stream (that is, with its own catchment) or off stream (pump in and out with no associated catchment).

One very real suggestion though. Let's give cloud seeding a go. It's cheap and we've got a huge amount of expertise already in Australia. It's proven to work in Tas so it's at least worth a try in Vic. Worst case we end up wasting a relatively trivial amount of money.


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> Because system load exceeds firm supply capability.
> 
> In plain english, that means demand outstrips the ability of the system to sustainably supply it. Attempting to supply that demand will lead to a trend of declining storage levels until such time as either storages are empty or demand and capacity are brought back into balance.
> 
> ...




How far out is the idea of piping it down from far north Qld.

Pipe it to dams built along the way as storage, do it in stages, they get metres of rain up there all down the drain.

Dont laugh they did that when someone suggested flight.


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> simply amazing




Thanks I've sent that on to a number of friends..............


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> Because system load exceeds firm supply capability.
> 
> In plain english, that means demand outstrips the ability of the system to sustainably supply it. Attempting to supply that demand will lead to a trend of declining storage levels until such time as either storages are empty or demand and capacity are brought back into balance.




Of course ! , why didnt the self appointed superior intellects in here work that out, grealy increased and increasing population and no new dams, so even without the drought we would probably be going backward.


----------



## MrBurns (11 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Of course ! , why didnt the self appointed superior intellects in here work that out, grealy increased and increasing population and no new dams, so even without the drought we would probably be going backward.




Mmmmm so would it be easier to pipe water down from Nth Qld or export a percentage of our population up there ?


----------



## sam76 (11 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Thanks I've sent that on to a number of friends..............





No worries 

I agree that a north/south pipe line would be a great project.

It would unify the nation more that $950


----------



## sam76 (11 February 2009)

you wouldn't have seen these in the press.

Coleraine fire - note the town is on the right. (size appx 900ha)

Horsham fire - had the wind change been any earlier we would have had many more deaths.


----------



## Julia (11 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Mmmmm so would it be easier to pipe water down from Nth Qld or export a percentage of our population up there ?



I guess any decision on that would not only consider which option would be easier (probably for the population to move north) but the preparedness of said population to in fact do that.   

Many people living in the southern states would simply not want to live in the tropics.

I would be won over by this crappy government if they were to wipe all the present stimulus package and put the funds into creating this north south pipeline so the southern states could have a reasonable water supply.
The water shortage in Victoria and SA is ridiculous and could have been prevented with proper forward planning by governments who looked a bit further ahead than the next election.


----------



## James Austin (11 February 2009)

thirsty koala on video

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25038828-5006785,00.html


----------



## brty (12 February 2009)

Mr Burns

I posted this earlier, perhaps you missed it it...



> 5. Water. Victoria needs it for farms and gardens. Something like the Bowring project is needed possibly on a larger scale (Say 20,000 GL instead of his 4,000).
> http://www.nalwt.gov.au/files/no-14-bowring.pdf




brty


----------



## white_crane (12 February 2009)

Whilst piping the water down south seems like a good idea, I'm not so sure.  We have floods for a reason.


In any case, here's hoping that conditions improve in Victoria.  Sending positive thoughts for those who need it.


----------



## daisy (12 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Mmmmm so would it be easier to pipe water down from Nth Qld or export a percentage of our population up there ?




There's been talk for years of piping water from NQ to brisbane because up until recently it was in severe water shortage. Last time this idea came up it was laughed out of state parliament. I think that's why the qld gov't made itself so unpopular by reclaiming farmland to build another dam closer to Brisbane. 
Also up here in Townsville we have water shortages also. With strict no sprinkler days backed by fines etc. The dams aren't big enough and in weather situations like we are having at moment water which could be collected is lost.
So apart from the cost of the pipeline itself we still don't have enough catchments up here for much of the year. 

As for sending a percentage of southerners up here. No Thanks. We don't want them.
Our infrastructure (hospitals etc) are already stretched to groaning point from all the southerners who have immigrated up here over the last few years.
The traffic on the roads is getting to the point where there is no guarantee you will get to go on the next green light.
I moved up here from Sydney 30 years ago because I loved the environment and the lifestyle. But over the last ten years all the southerners who have moved up here (supposedly because they liked the environment and the lifestyle) have done their damndest to replicate what they left behind and they're messing it up.
Go figure!


----------



## dombat (12 February 2009)

I have been reading this thread for a while...Yes Victoria has many, many challenges ahead of it....

1.  For the fire prevention discussion my opinion is the cfa strategy has worked a 100% for 99% of the time.  But if the climatologists are correct these freakish conditions will become more prevalent requiring a better approach.  I read one idea that seems eminently sensible and that was rating the threat like they do cyclones.  A category 5 say would require all children, people aged over 65 and those with medical conditions to evacuate the area etc.  I like the idea of the underground bunkers too, as long as oxygen can be assured.
2.  My other concern currently is that the week prior to the tragedy, we like S.A had rolling blackouts which contributed to a soaring death rate due to heat exhaustion.  And yet we are looking at putting on a desalination plant when we appear already to be struggling with our electricity supply.  I would rather the money go to something that would secure our supply for electricity and drink recycled water which would be massively cheaper than build this billion dollar monster.  For Victoria to remain viable we need both water and a reliable power supply.


----------



## MrBurns (12 February 2009)

The pipeline from Nth Qld could be started in a number of locations simultaneously employ thousands and be finished in a few years - 

1/ Employ people 
2/ Secure Vic water supply and Brisbane

*JUST DO IT !*


----------



## daisy (12 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> The pipeline from Nth Qld could be started in a number of locations simultaneously employ thousands and be finished in a few years -
> 
> 1/ Employ people
> 2/ Secure Vic water supply and Brisbane
> ...




O.K. I'll get out with my shovel tomorrow. 
Seriously  I don't know why this idea has been treated like a joke but it is one that has been around for decades apparently. I think it was Beattie who raised it last.


----------



## Agentm (12 February 2009)

James Austin said:


> thirsty koala on video
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25038828-5006785,00.html




i know in kinglake where my sister lives, even though she and her family stayed and fought the blaze and miraculously survived uninjured and kept their house, the wildlife uses her property as an oasis.

there is a horse abandoned by a neighbor in the panic as the blaze struck, with burns to its body and badly singed on her small patch of grass that somehow was not burnt, then there is the water tank which is refilled with  dirty water by the cfa, they allow it to drain a little and the local wallabies use that water to survive, she has also put out a lot of seed which feeds the parrots and birds..

its in the face of devastation that all survivors get looked after. you have to respect anything that made it alive there.. it would be impossible to ignore the suffering of animals that have somehow survived the inferno


----------



## Calliope (12 February 2009)

daisy said:


> There's been talk for years of piping water from NQ to brisbane because up until recently it was in severe water shortage. Last time this idea came up it was laughed out of state parliament. I think that's why the qld gov't made itself so unpopular by reclaiming farmland to build another dam closer to Brisbane.
> Also up here in Townsville we have water shortages also. With strict no sprinkler days backed by fines etc. The dams aren't big enough and in weather situations like we are having at moment water which could be collected is lost.
> So apart from the cost of the pipeline itself we still don't have enough catchments up here for much of the year.
> 
> ...




As usual Daisy talks commonsense. Every year when we see footage of vast amounts of water spilling out of the Burdekin catchment (usually measured in Sydney harbours) the "pipedream" is resurrected. Each year people who know about these things point out the huge level of infrastructure and the vast amounts of power that would be necessary to pump water in this, apparently massive pipeline, thousands of miles.

And that's without considering that for most of the year, when it is not raining up there, this pipeline would be idle  And don't tell me the water could be pumped from their existing dams. The NQ people would not take kindly to this, especially when, as Daisy says, the North has it's own periodic water shortages.

The answer to the water shortages lies with the States (and their cooperation with each other) to build more dams to harvest the water during the floods that alternate with our droughts.

Unfortunately State decisions, like Federal decisions are poll driven, and the NIMBYs supported by the greenies win every time. And it won't happen. So we fall back on pipedreams.


----------



## MrBurns (12 February 2009)

daisy said:


> O.K. I'll get out with my shovel tomorrow.
> Seriously  I don't know why this idea has been treated like a joke but it is one that has been around for decades apparently. I think it was Beattie who raised it last.




No doubt the politicians would workshop and committee it to death, but I think Vic will have an ongoing problem and we just cant use less water every time the levels drop, at some stage the water will lose purity then it will really hit the fan, have the politicians thought of that ? I doubt it.


----------



## Bushman (12 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> i know in kinglake where my sister lives, even though she and her family stayed and fought the blaze and miraculously survived uninjured and kept their house, the wildlife uses her property as an oasis.
> 
> there is a horse abandoned by a neighbor in the panic as the blaze struck, with burns to its body and badly singed on her small patch of grass that somehow was not burnt, then there is the water tank which is refilled with  dirty water by the cfa, they allow it to drain a little and the local wallabies use that water to survive, she has also put out a lot of seed which feeds the parrots and birds..
> 
> its in the face of devastation that all survivors get looked after. you have to respect anything that made it alive there.. it would be impossible to ignore the suffering of animals that have somehow survived the inferno




Thanks for that mate. Very pleased for your sister and good on her for making a difference. 

Friend of mine has lost his house/tools up there. Nothing left. He was in Melbourne on the Saturday so he was not injured. His aunt died though in her paddock after she saved her beloved goats (they all survived due to her actions). She was a hero too. RIP


----------



## Julia (12 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> i know in kinglake where my sister lives, even though she and her family stayed and fought the blaze and miraculously survived uninjured and kept their house, the wildlife uses her property as an oasis.
> 
> there is a horse abandoned by a neighbor in the panic as the blaze struck, with burns to its body and badly singed on her small patch of grass that somehow was not burnt, then there is the water tank which is refilled with  dirty water by the cfa, they allow it to drain a little and the local wallabies use that water to survive, she has also put out a lot of seed which feeds the parrots and birds..
> 
> its in the face of devastation that all survivors get looked after. you have to respect anything that made it alive there.. it would be impossible to ignore the suffering of animals that have somehow survived the inferno



So well expressed, Agentm.   Bless your sister and anyone else who doesn't dismiss the suffering of animals.




Bushman said:


> Thanks for that mate. Very pleased for your sister and good on her for making a difference.
> 
> Friend of mine has lost his house/tools up there. Nothing left. He was in Melbourne on the Saturday so he was not injured. His aunt died though in her paddock after she saved her beloved goats (they all survived due to her actions). She was a hero too. RIP



I'm so sorry about your friend's aunt, Bushman.   Is there someone to look after the goats?


----------



## James Austin (12 February 2009)

Bushman said:


> Thanks for that mate. Very pleased for your sister and good on her for making a difference.
> 
> Friend of mine has lost his house/tools up there. Nothing left. He was in Melbourne on the Saturday so he was not injured. His aunt died though in her paddock after she saved her beloved goats (they all survived due to her actions). She was a hero too. RIP





my partner is very involved in the horse industry. she was speaking to another horsie person who told of a man and his wife who owned 11 horses and lived in the bushfire zone.

the story goes that the fire was a way off from their property but the horses were starting to get edgy, due to the smoke i assume, so the couple decided to stable all 11 horses so that they didnt injure themselves in the paddock.

after doing this the couple returned inside for a drink of water to then return to the house deck to assess the fire off in the distance. they were surprised and frightened to see the fire rapidly approaching their property and horse stable.

have you ever heard a horse squeal in severe pain??, eleven of them began squealling as the heat, and then the fire, approached and engulfed the stable block.

very painful to lose loved ones, . . . . human and animal.

James


----------



## Bushman (12 February 2009)

Julia said:


> I'm so sorry about your friend's aunt, Bushman.   Is there someone to look after the goats?




Yes her adult children.


----------



## Agentm (12 February 2009)

Bushman said:


> Thanks for that mate. Very pleased for your sister and good on her for making a difference.
> 
> Friend of mine has lost his house/tools up there. Nothing left. He was in Melbourne on the Saturday so he was not injured. His aunt died though in her paddock after she saved her beloved goats (they all survived due to her actions). She was a hero too. RIP




the decisions made by people like this are what makes us human, the difference is that we cannot bear suffering. we will always render aid, to our own and to other species. humans are a very unique species.

what you aunt did for her beloved goats is in itself tragic and her loss to her family will be felt for a long time to come. this is indeed a very very sad story. 

i also have seen people feel guilt, one man had the good fortune of "elvis" dumping water on his home, a role that is  standard for the men piloting the machines and saving lives and property, yet they feel empty as they survey their neighbors homes burnt to the ground around them..

there are many who feel guilt that they survived or their property survived, when there is so much loss around them

we need to care for those that have loss, to those that feel others loss and the mental and physical health of all..


----------



## Prospector (12 February 2009)

white_crane said:


> Whilst piping the water down south seems like a good idea, I'm not so sure.  We have floods for a reason.




Isn't that somewaht akin to saying that if man was meant to fly he would have wings?  And if we have floods for a reason, then what is the reason for drought?


----------



## Calliope (12 February 2009)

From an article in today's The Australian.


> Victoria's bushfire tragedy has focused attention on the management of its state forests, national parks and other Crown land, which make up a third of the state but contributed four-fifths of the fires started since Australia Day.
> 
> Among councils to resist controlled burning was the Yarra Ranges Shire, which was hit heavily by the Black Saturday bushfire disaster.
> 
> ...




In that case they shouldn't have allowed people to build there. Human habitation and a pristine, native animal friendly, environment are not compatible.


----------



## MrBurns (12 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> From an article in today's The Australian.
> 
> 
> In that case they shouldn't have allowed people to build there. Human habitation and a pristine, native animal friendly, environment are not compatible.




Roll on Royal Commission, hope it's not a whitewash.


----------



## brty (12 February 2009)

Calliope,



> a pristine, native animal friendly, environment




That right there is where most of the problems are. What people want to believe is such, is nothing more than a point in time of the lifecycle of the Australian bush. Man induced fire over 40-50,000 years is what has made it that way.

Without fire to regenerate the eucalypt forests, their range will recede, back to the 'natural' state. We, both aboriginal and european settlers have made the bush what it is.

brty


----------



## Julia (12 February 2009)

James Austin said:


> my partner is very involved in the horse industry. she was speaking to another horsie person who told of a man and his wife who owned 11 horses and lived in the bushfire zone.
> 
> the story goes that the fire was a way off from their property but the horses were starting to get edgy, due to the smoke i assume, so the couple decided to stable all 11 horses so that they didnt injure themselves in the paddock.
> 
> ...



Oh God, I wish I hadn't read this.


----------



## MrBurns (12 February 2009)

Julia said:


> Oh God, I wish I hadn't read this.




I thought the same thing when i read it , we really dont need that.


----------



## MrBurns (12 February 2009)

I think this appeal on Ch9 tonight will be a flop, I reckon everyone has given by now, they'll pump it up though somehow.

Some of the media coverage has been appalling, sticking cameras in the faces of heavily grieving people I dont know how they can do it.


----------



## glenn_r (12 February 2009)

brty said:


> Calliope,
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Lightning strikes have started bush fires millions of years before man ever started stuffing things up...


----------



## Prospector (12 February 2009)

I am being such a wuss, but I simply cannot bear reading/hearing anymore about the dreadful things that are happening.  So how on earth are all the real victims coping 

Bushfires are a natural part of the Australian environment, but we forget that when we want to live in it.

The media - I guess the fact they are getting such graphic accounts means that people are very moved to donate.  But yes, I dont think that makes it moral to show someone who has just been told they have lost a loved one, or their home.  But we have seen a lot of that.

A child drowned in a pool in Adelaide this week - the photograoher was pushing past the family to show the pool - when challenged by a neighbour he was told to get out of his way.  Ethics and Journalism?  Ha!


----------



## Trevor_S (12 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I thought the same thing when i read it , we really dont need that.




I think we do, don't sugar coat the horror, doing so sees the process repeated, as it will again in decades hence no doubt.. sigh... 

I thought this interesting
http://www.smh.com.au/national/fine...family-now-feel-vindicated-20090212-85bd.html



> They were labelled law breakers, fined $50,000 and left emotionally and financially drained.
> 
> But seven years after the Sheahans bulldozed trees to make a fire break — an act that got them dragged before a magistrate and penalised — they feel vindicated. Their house is one of the few in Reedy Creek, Victoria,  still standing.






> Melbourne University bushfire expert Kevin Tolhurst gave evidence to help the Sheahan family in their legal battle with the council.
> 
> "Their fight went over nearly two years. The Sheahans were victimised. It wasn't morally right," he said yesterday.
> 
> ...


----------



## MrBurns (12 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> The media - I guess the fact they are getting such graphic accounts means that people are very moved to donate.  But yes, I dont think that makes it moral to show someone who has just been told they have lost a loved one, or their home.  But we have seen a lot of that.
> !




People dont need that to make them donate, look at the coverage by the ABC thats how it should be done.
Channel 9 find someone who's relative is on the other side of a mountain and fly them over there , the cameras all out to catch them as they ran toward each other, sickening parasites.

Ch 7 and 9 compete for the who can be the most shocking or tearjerking to get the ratings for $$$

That results in sickening television.


----------



## MrBurns (12 February 2009)

Trevor_S said:


> I think we do, don't sugar coat the horror, doing so sees the process repeated, as it will again in decades hence no doubt.. sigh...
> 
> I thought this interesting
> http://www.smh.com.au/national/fine...family-now-feel-vindicated-20090212-85bd.html




We dont need the detail of human and animal suffering, it causes unessessary anguish.


----------



## moXJO (12 February 2009)

Can anyone verify if this is true?



> It has come to light that green council requirements for building in the Kingslake area and surrounds required tree planting, virtually to hide the house, therefore disobeying the fire services advice of 1.5 tree height from the building. More on this as details are updated.




I hope they don't do a cover up. I'm already seeing the 'experts' coming out and saying forest management would not have helped. IMO heads should roll.


----------



## badger41 (12 February 2009)

Victorian Road Deaths last year totalled 304 people, often in horrific circumstances. Australia was 1463 deaths. Pretty truamatic for the families of those killed, just like the bushfire families.

Don't see any Red Cross appeal for those road toll victims and their families. No massive media fundraising frenzy. I guess because the deaths happened over a whole year (and certainly will again this year), it gets a bit boring for the media. And nowhere near as "photographable" as the fires.

And almost all the homes destroyed in the fires would have had house and contents insurance, the cars destroyed also insured, and many of the fire victims would have had life insurance.

Interesting to see where all the money raised (including my substantial doanation), actually goes.

Badger


----------



## prawn_86 (12 February 2009)

Add to that Badger that thousands of young people each year commit suicide, but you never here of that, not even on the news like car crashes.

No-one ever said things were evenly distributed in this society though.


----------



## MrBurns (12 February 2009)

moXJO said:


> Can anyone verify if this is true?
> I hope they don't do a cover up. I'm already seeing the 'experts' coming out and saying forest management would not have helped. IMO heads should roll.




They'll be running for cover now, hiding behind reports and committee findings.


----------



## Calliope (12 February 2009)

badger41 said:


> And almost all the homes destroyed in the fires would have had house and contents insurance, the cars destroyed also insured, and many of the fire victims would have had life insurance.




It was found after the Canberra bushfires in 2003 that a surprising number of the victims had no household insurance coverage. Because it was declared a National Disaster area they were compensated by the taxpayer. I imagine the same deal will apply in Victoria.


----------



## MrBurns (12 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> It was found after the Canberra bushfires in 2003 that a surprising number of the victims had no household insurance coverage. Because it was declared a National Disaster area they were compensated by the taxpayer. I imagine the same deal will apply in Victoria.




Wonder how they'll getting insurance this time round.


----------



## daisy (12 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> No doubt the politicians would workshop and committee it to death, but I think Vic will have an ongoing problem and we just cant use less water every time the levels drop, at some stage the water will lose purity then it will really hit the fan, have the politicians thought of that ? I doubt it.




Mr Burns, that happens up here all the time. Because of tropical conditios when our dam gets too low it is advisable to boil drinking water to prevent gastro infectional diseases. especially for babies and young children

So as Calliope says, the whole pipeline idea would have to start with bigger and more dams. If water was viewed as a national asset and not a regional or state asset then the management of that may mean that we would all have water shortages from time to time but that would be equitable. But Calliope is right...a pipedream.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 February 2009)

There seems to be a bit of confusion about water infrastructure... 

*Catchment* means an area of land onto which water falls and then runs off into a creek, river etc. 

Whilst it also includes water falling directly into a reservoir, in most cases the reservoir will cover (with water) only a few % of the catchment area. The rest will be bush, farms, roads, towns or any other land use.

*Reservoir, Storage or Impoundment* means a lake, lagoon or other body of water used for the storage of water. This may be either natural or man-made and may be either on stream or off stream. 

The term "impoundment" is a derogatory term primarily used by environmentalists. 

*On stream storage* means a storage (lake etc) that has a river flowing directly into it.

*Off stream storage* means a storage that does not have a river flowing directly into it. The water is put in from some other source usually by pipes, canals etc. This often involves mechanical pumping of the water.

*Dam* means a physical structure built at a low point (typically a river valley or some other valley) so as to create, in combination with the natural topography of the land, a storage.

*Diversions* are achieved by construction of storages, canals, pipelines etc and serve to divert water from one catchment into another. 

So, *Catchments* capture the water that falls on the surface of the earth and concentrate it at a single point (a river). Diversions move water from one catchment to another, often via a storage. *Storages* hold the water. *Dams* are built in order to create storages.

So in general you don't "build" a catchment because it's already there. You might divert it to where the water is wanted (perhaps into a storage) but catchments per se are natural. 

An example of how all this comes together can be seen in the link. The vast majority of the catchment is not under water or in any other way affected by development. Some is farm land, some is bush, some is a National Park. Only a small area is actually under water, and even there some of that is natural. 

By the way, the scheme in the link has enough water to supply all Australian capital cities combined. Hobart uses about 1% of it with the rest going to waste. In terms of physical area, it would take a day to drive around and look at it all. In operation it was built for baseload power generation (not peak loads). It never stops gnerating power and discharging water (24/7) although the flows within the scheme (as distinct from downstream of it) will vary hugely according to conditions. 

http://www.hydro.com.au/home/Tourism+and+Recreation/Derwent+Catchment


----------



## Julia (12 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> We dont need the detail of human and animal suffering, it causes unessessary anguish.



I completely agree.  We all know what has happened.  Such graphic detail is entirely gratuitous and just adds to the general level of distress.   Helps no one.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> It was found after the Canberra bushfires in 2003 that a surprising number of the victims had no household insurance coverage. Because it was declared a National Disaster area they were compensated by the taxpayer. I imagine the same deal will apply in Victoria.




would the fact that a lot being blamed on arson change the insurance for them to have to payout?

or are we jumping to conclusions here re payouts?


----------



## Julia (12 February 2009)

badger41 said:


> Victorian Road Deaths last year totalled 304 people, often in horrific circumstances. Australia was 1463 deaths. Pretty truamatic for the families of those killed, just like the bushfire families.
> 
> Don't see any Red Cross appeal for those road toll victims and their families. No massive media fundraising frenzy. I guess because the deaths happened over a whole year (and certainly will again this year), it gets a bit boring for the media. And nowhere near as "photographable" as the fires.
> 
> ...



Valid point, Badger.  I suppose the difference is that with the road accident victims we're inured to it because a road accident is on the news every day.  Also road accidents don't usually involve annihilation of dwellings.

I'd also have assumed most properties were insured.

Just going back to the basic principle of staying to defend a house, I will just never get this.  If  bushfire was anywhere in my vicinity I'd be packed and off  with the first warning.  Let the house burn down.  Insurance will rebuild it and provide replacement accommodation of similar standard in the meantime.

I can understand the terror of such a fire, but wonder how many could have avoided any personal exposure if they'd taken a less sentimental approach to a damn house.

Prawn, also a very valid point about suicide.  But I guess the main difference here is that this is an autonomous and entirely personal decision.  A choice if you like.


----------



## trillionaire#1 (13 February 2009)

my goodness,my heart goes out to everyone in victoria right now
i remember the day the fires began,we were scared sh..less a fire 
may have broken out here in south oz,strong hot winds,scorching temps.

lightning and hot weather forecast for Victoria next week,:headshake


----------



## So_Cynical (13 February 2009)

Julia said:


> Valid point, Badger.  I suppose the difference is that with the road accident victims we're inured to it because a road accident is on the news every day.  Also road accidents don't usually involve annihilation of dwellings.
> 
> Prawn, also a very valid point about suicide.  But I guess the main difference here is that this is an autonomous and entirely personal decision.  A choice if you like.




This will sound super Cynical...fire disasters make good TV, suicides and road accidents 
don't, fires have heroes and amazing tales of survival etc, also lots of emotion from 
ordinary people..the pollies love it to, all that quality TV time and looks of concern.


----------



## Calliope (13 February 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> This will sound super Cynical...fire disasters make good TV, suicides and road accidents
> don't, fires have heroes and amazing tales of survival etc, also lots of emotion from
> ordinary people..the pollies love it to, all that quality TV time and looks of concern.




Yes. You need a combination of victims, heroes and someone to blame and the media and the pollies will flock there in droves. Remember Beaconsfield.
They all love a spectacular tragedy. The pollies are consummate actors and they can put on a brave attempt to hold back their emotions while hugging victims at the flash of a camera. And then they arrange "days of mourning" for encore performances.


----------



## Agentm (13 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Yes. You need a combination of victims, heroes and someone to blame and the media and the pollies will flock there in droves. Remember Beaconsfield.
> They all love a spectacular tragedy. The pollies are consummate actors and they can put on a brave attempt to hold back their emotions while hugging victims at the flash of a camera. And then they arrange "days of mourning" for encore performances.




this has to be the biggest load of garbage written on this thread, it eclipses this clown that last night tried to start a thread which was so offensive it was immediately removed..

the thought that anyone in the media is loving this, or that the politicians are loving this is so incredibly insensitive to what is happening.. infact calliope, your a disgrace..  everything humanly possible is being done by every media representative, and by every politician to firstly assist those in harms way, and also to try and assist those that have lost friends family property.. this is a disaster never been seen before and no one is demonstrating anything like what you are saying calliope..

i ask you to present some hard facts mate,, if your going claim this then you better come through with the goods, you sure are not winning any respect from anyone with this type of tripe..

"They all love a spectacular tragedy. The pollies are consummate actors and they can put on a brave attempt to hold back their emotions while hugging victims at the flash of a camera. And then they arrange "days of mourning" for encore performances."  

right now the abc radio is working tirelessly warning people in the flare ups to evacuate, particularily around healesville where i have a lot of relatives right now either staring at the fires or about to have one come their way any minute.

the politicians are not weeping for the cameras.. there is no grandstanding, the objective of all is to see this disaster end as soon as it can, but its not over by any means, there are serious blazes right now threatening many more homes.. the emotions that they have shown are genuine, as has everyones emotions in this ongoing disaster..

calliiope, when you hear of the heartache, the jobs people have to endure, to have to pull burnt bodies of children from homes and cars, to secure crime scenes, the loss the agony the sheer gravity of the situation overwhelms you,   it makes you weep, its not easy for those like the ones working at the morgue, working 12 hours shifts 7 days a week, this is not an opportunity to prosper or to grandstand, this is just a full scale effort to deal with a bushfire disaster never seen before. 


"Yes. You need a combination of victims, heroes and someone to blame and the media and the pollies will flock there in droves. Remember Beaconsfield."

you are so far off the track here.. you are so wrong and so offensive.. 

imho your a disgrace..


----------



## MrBurns (13 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> this has to be the biggest load of garbage written on this thread, it eclipses this clown that last night tried to start a thread which was so offensive it was immediately removed..
> 
> the thought that anyone in the media is loving this, or that the politicians are loving this is so incredibly insensitive to what is happening.. infact calliope, your a disgrace..  everything humanly possible is being done by every media representative, and by every politician to firstly assist those in harms way, and also to try and assist those that have lost friends family property.. this is a disaster never been seen before and no one is demonstrating anything like what you are saying calliope..
> 
> ...





The media thrive on this stuff and to think otherwise would label you as well.........clueless


----------



## Calliope (13 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> calliiope, when you hear of the heartache, the jobs people have to endure, to have to pull burnt bodies of children from homes and cars, to secure crime scenes, the loss the agony the sheer gravity of the situation overwhelms you,   it makes you weep, its not easy for those like the ones working at the morgue, working 12 hours shifts 7 days a week, this is not an opportunity to prosper or to *grandstand, *this is just a full scale effort to deal with a bushfire disaster never seen before.




I agree. And the politicians are certainly grandstanding. Would they do it in the absence of the media?:headshake:

When it comes to naive tripe you win hands down.


----------



## MrBurns (13 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> I agree. And the politicians are certainly grandstanding. Would they do it in the absence of the media?:headshake:
> 
> When it comes to naive tripe you win hands down.




Rudd is either not very good at .............oh forget it I don't like Rudd and I dont think I'll be changing my mind, the way he tried to link bushfire assistance to the stimulus package shows what sort of man he is, the package should be debated but he tried to push it through quickly on the back of a national tragedy. A sneaky, smarmy cold blooded action.


----------



## Prospector (13 February 2009)

Surely Agentm you must consider that the actions of the media in the face of human tragedy cross the line on many occasions.  

Like Mike Munro and his helicopter incident getting an interview with children who were being held as hostage?  Too many times we see people being interviewed who are in total shock and distress.  Just recently in SA we were shown pictures on TV and in the paper of a mother in total distress who had just witnessed her son being killed when a gate collapsed on him; she was sitting on the fence in total shock; the anguish of another mother who, whilst being filmed on camera, was told her 14 year old son had just been murdered in the CBD. She was filmed screaming as she ran across the road to get to his body.  And the next day the front page was just her tormented face.

These people are not in a fit place to consent to being filmed.  Or is the argument that Hey, they are in a public place, anything goes!


----------



## Bushman (13 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> I agree. And the politicians are certainly grandstanding. Would they do it in the absence of the media?:headshake:
> 
> When it comes to naive tripe you win hands down.




I disagree with the grandstanding. I have been impressed by the bipartisan compassion shown by all MP's. Off course indifference to the plight of the victims would be political suicide at this time but that is a moot point. Also the double standard between the treatment of victims of a natural disaster like this and 'silent' killers like suicide/road accidents has been pointed out before. 


As for the popular media - vultures and ghouls. Misery likes company and company sells copy. The worst I saw was when an unnamed television company flew a wife to be reunited with her husband. She literally had to hurdle over camera men to get to her husband. ABC have done a great job though so please do not include them in the analysis. 

My fear is what happens to the victims of this bushfire in three-months time when the media have moved on to the next train wreck, the pollies are back haranguing each other over the stimulus package and the banks can get back to collecting mortgage and interest payments. Then, all of a sudden, a heck of a lot of extremely traumatised individuals will be facing emotional and financial hardship all alone. Up to the Aussie public to make sure we keep the pressure on to turn rhetoric into long-term support and meaningful policy change.


----------



## MrBurns (13 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> Surely Agentm you must consider that the actions of the media in the face of human tragedy cross the line on many occasions.
> 
> Like Mike Munro and his helicopter incident getting an interview with children who were being held as hostage?  Too many times we see people being interviewed who are in total shock and distress.  Just recently in SA we were shown pictures on TV and in the paper of a mother in total distress who had just witnessed her son being killed when a gate collapsed on him; she was sitting on the fence in total shock; the anguish of another mother who, whilst being filmed on camera, was told her 14 year old son had just been murdered in the CBD. She was filmed screaming as she ran across the road to get to his body.  And the next day the front page was just her tormented face.
> 
> These people are not in a fit place to consent to being filmed.  Or is the argument that Hey, they are in a public place, anything goes!




I agree, in many cases the media are just parasites, it's all for ratings and money.
Yes people watch it but they watch train wrecks too, it's just pandering to the lowest common denominator - the ABC dont do it because they dont have to worry about ratings and sponsors.


----------



## MrBurns (13 February 2009)

Bushman said:


> . The worst I saw was when an unnamed television company flew a wife to be reunited with her husband. She literally had to hurdle over camera men to get to her husband. ABC have done a great job though so please do not include them in the analysis.





I saw that it was disgusting, the media owned the moment because they lent their helicopter. Pigs

BTW it was Ch 9


----------



## sam76 (13 February 2009)

the commercial media are true scavengers of human misery IMO


----------



## kincella (13 February 2009)

almost no one talks about the misery for both domestic and wild life animals....people are not allowed into the areas....so where is the water and help for the poor suffering animals....everyone giving millions of dollars, food clothing for people....but no one talks about the animals....they would suffer more...they were in the middle of it.....
now 1800 homes lost....new threat to healsville.....wonder if they have kept the animals in the sanctuary or moved them.....
sorry guys...all the talk about humans suffering...but zilch about the animals...

oh and I would probably take a closer look at what that bloke did with the concrete tank and the shelter...above ground but it saved their lives.....
there was a photo of it on the web..


----------



## Prospector (13 February 2009)

kincella said:


> sorry guys...all the talk about humans suffering...but zilch about the animals...




Nope, you are wrong there.  Flick back a couple of pages - Julia, Mr Burns - all very distressed about reading of the misery of the animals.  They aren't forgotten at all, it is just too distressing to think of them still suffering.
Is there a wildlife fund that we can donate too?  Not just wildlife but all animals in distress?

Cancel that, have just donated to RSPCAvic specifically for the bushfire rescue.


----------



## daisy (13 February 2009)

Hi everyone

http://www.wildlifevictoria.org.au/cms/

The above address will take you to a site where you can make a donation to bushfire wildlife appeal.
Our accoustic music club had a collection last night and all proceeds have gone here.


----------



## MrBurns (13 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> Nope, you are wrong there.  Flick back a couple of pages - Julia, Mr Burns - all very distressed about reading of the misery of the animals.  They aren't forgotten at all, it is just too distressing to think of them still suffering.
> Is there a wildlife fund that we can donate too?  Not just wildlife but all animals in distress?




Just off topic for a sec, you can take an injured native animal to any vet and they tend to it and send it to a carer, you know what they get for this ?
Nothing - the Vet and the carer get nothing, with all the money washing around you would think they'd give a little to help these people.


----------



## Prospector (13 February 2009)

And that group too, thanks Daisy!
To be honest Mr Burns, Vet fees to paying customers are so ridiculously expensive, I think that maybe wildlife treatment should be pro-bono.  The carers deserve something though.


----------



## Bushman (13 February 2009)

Here is an charitable organisation that has been inundated by animals affected by the bushfire. 

www.animalaid.com.au

Cheers


----------



## Agentm (13 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> I agree. And the politicians are certainly grandstanding. Would they do it in the absence of the media?:headshake:
> 
> When it comes to naive tripe you win hands down.




your behavior to peoples rights to mourn is reprehensible and you remain a disgrace calliope.. you must be proud of your insensitive tripe calliope..

"They all love a spectacular tragedy. The pollies are consummate actors and they can put on a brave attempt to hold back their emotions while hugging victims at the flash of a camera. *And then they arrange "days of mourning" for encore performances. '*

so a day of mourning, for those have suffered loss is what your against calliope..  your a disgrace and remain one..

i think you need to recognise why people need to mourn their losses calliope, its not for personal gain, the day of mourning is for all to express their grieve,  to try and get through this incredibly difficult phase.. loss, pain, hurt, and the long term grief all family members will feel for losing sons, daughters, fathers, mothers, grand parents, uncles, aunts, cousins.. all will feel the loss calliope, and the day of mourning will be only a small part of the long road they will have ahead to recover from this.

i believe there are a great number of dead that are part of a crime investigation, they were senselessly killed.

you have demonstrated you cannot have any empathy with the suffering of these people, and you sure dont share with the nation the grief we all feel calliope, but the rest of the community does, and i fully support what the politicians are doing, applaud their bipartisan resolve to get all aid to these people remain and totally support the day of mourning 100% imho it would be unaustralian and inhuman to deny these people their loss and i have no respect for those like you that criticise and do not support their right to have an opportunity to mourn calliope.


fantastic post daisy.. well done for the work you are doing


----------



## Prospector (13 February 2009)

But wasn't it just last week that Rudd announced we would have a day of mourning for the child who was so horribly thrown over the bridge by her father? Because that was what was in the headlines at the time. That day seems to have been forgotten in the midst of this enormous tragedy.  

It is things like that which make people question motives.

I am more of a private person; I think memorials need to be held for the people who have been so horribly involved, in a few weeks time to give them some closure. I guess the politicians will need to be there, as a sign of respect.


----------



## kincella (13 February 2009)

Ok, so now I want the media to advertise the wildlife donation centres...next to the red cross and other numbers.....most people I know are concerned about the animals....we know people are getting plenty of help


----------



## Agentm (13 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> But wasn't it just last week that Rudd announced we would have a day of mourning for the child who was so horribly thrown over the bridge by her father? Because that was what was in the headlines at the time. That day seems to have been forgotten in the midst of this enormous tragedy.
> 
> It is things like that which make people question motives.
> 
> I am more of a private person; I think memorials need to be held for the people who have been so horribly involved, in a few weeks time to give them some closure. I guess the politicians will need to be there, as a sign of respect.






you got it all wrong prospector, 

Family reveals grief over bridge death
Feb 05, 2009 12:00am
By: The Australian

THE family of Darcey Freeman, the four-year-old thrown off the West Gate Bridge, has called for a national children's day in her honour


since that day the family askedfor it the fires began shortly after..

no one is trying to diminish the loss there prospector..

the need for the communities to grieve together is also needed prospector, and there is no criticism to be seen in doing it.  the community representatives, religious leaders and community will unite and grieve together and its very much what they will want also. its all part of the long mend ahead prospsector


----------



## Calliope (13 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> so a day of mourning, for those have suffered loss is what your against calliope..  your a disgrace and remain one..
> 
> you have demonstrated you cannot have any empathy with the suffering of these people, and you sure dont share with the nation the grief we all feel




*You're * a twit and you remain one. *Your* thinking is as muddled as *your* English.

Most people can empathise withe the victims of the tragedy without grandstanding like you and the media cowboys.


----------



## Prospector (13 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> THE family of Darcey Freeman, the four-year-old thrown off the West Gate Bridge, has called for a national children's day in her honour
> 
> 
> since that day the family askedfor it the fires began shortly after..
> ...



And Rudd's response to the family's request was that Australia should do it.  

We grieve for the loss of life (human and animal) and the loss the families are facing; they need our support, care, and of course, donations to keep them going.   I am so sad for them, I cannot imagine how they will keep on keeping on, but how does my 'need to grieve' support or help them in any way?  That makes it about me, not them!  What right do I have, who has not been a victim, to make the grief process about me and my needs?  What have I lost?

Because that is what a National Mourning Day means for me!


----------



## Agentm (13 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> *You're * a twit and you remain one. *Your* thinking is as muddled as *your* English.
> 
> Most people can empathise withe the victims of the tragedy without grandstanding like you and the media cowboys.




lol


its not grandstanding to stand against what you are peddling calliope,, 

i support the communities and the people who live there and recognise their loss and grieve with them. i respect their right to mourn and totally support the day of mourning which you dont. i applaud loudly the political leaders efforts and the volunteers and the broader community support that has rallied to give aid for those who have and are suffering the loss of lives, homes, and communities. 

your just never going to change my resolve to oppose the tripe you peddle and support the community and people in it who are doing the amazing work they are to get through this difficult journey ahead..


----------



## Calliope (13 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> lol
> your just never going to change my resolve to oppose the tripe you peddle and support the community and people in it who are doing the amazing work they are to get through this difficult journey ahead..




Spoken like a true hero.


----------



## Agentm (13 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> And Rudd's response to the family's request was that Australia should do it.
> 
> We grieve for the loss of life (human and animal) and the loss the families are facing; they need our support, care, and of course, donations to keep them going.   I am so sad for them, I cannot imagine how they will keep on keeping on, but how does my 'need to grieve' support or help them in any way?  That makes it about me, not them!  What right do I have, who has not been a victim, to make the grief process about me and my needs?  What have I lost?
> 
> Because that is what a National Mourning Day means for me!





your right prospector the pm did respond..



Peter Jean, Paul Anderson

February 05, 2009 02:13pm

PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd has backed a call by the family of Darcey Freeman for an annual Children's Day.

"I'm told there could be all kinds of technicalities associated with it and I don't know really what the processes are but I support the idea," Mr Rudd said today.

"Let's see what the community has to say in the discussion which will happen but I think this has affected everybody and out of such an appalling tragedy how do you turn it to good?"

An emotional Mr Rudd said Darcey's death was "gut wrenching for the entire nation".

"Anyone with a touch of humanity in them finds this just unspeakable and you just recoil horror at all this," he said.

Premier John Brumby said it was possible the idea could be incorporated into the existing children's week and international children's day events in the first week of October.


i think anyone can feel the loss and its totally ok to feel what you are feeling prospector, everyone has the personal right to grieve for others and their loss. its part of what we are, the fabric of community and humainty is about caring.


----------



## Agentm (13 February 2009)

julia you said you didnt get this

"just going back to the basic principle of staying to defend a house, I will just never get this. If bushfire was anywhere in my vicinity I'd be packed and off with the first warning. Let the house burn down. Insurance will rebuild it and provide replacement accommodation of similar standard in the meantime."

the king lake people often had no choice, sometimes the road out was in the path of the flames.. and it came so fast, not like anything seen before..

the kinglake cfa have 2 trucks, and lost 550 homes.. the two trucks were called out to support the fire down the road and were a long way from their town and their loved ones.. so they left town and were not there when the firestorm hit..

the speed of the fire that came through kinglake really did not leave much time for anything.

i can tell you that in my sisters street they had some residents home on the day, and of them they basically had no choice but to fight the fires and stay.

one neighbour tried to put his horse in his horse float next to his garage, but failed, i guess he was thinking it could be protected from the flames in the float, then when he saw the flames he fled, in his car and left the horse which got burnt and is in my sisters care still. 

others fought and were able to contain the massive ember storm that preceded the fire itself.. so you basically do you best to keep your home from burning before the fire hits you, she described it like a machine, a turbine but deafening.. under the instruction of her husband, she and her daughter fought the ember attack and the fires as the took hold of the home, they had only one goal, to try and kep the home from burning so they could retreat there  when the fire hit..

these are extremely heroic deeds, as i know personally that both my sister and her daughter were absolutely terrified. 

julia the 3 residents that were there and did fight the fires, of them 2 properties were saved, one couple fled their burning home and were fortunate to have a practically empty dam near by which saved them from death. they had to be helped out of later as they simply were exhausted physically from the fight to put out the fire in the intense heat and couldnt get out of the mud..

talk about heros, anyone who faced it, and many had no choice, were doing things that were beyond the normal experience. i know my sister is so proud of her daughter and her ability to be calm and manage the terror around them as the fire passed overhead..

i am jubilant they lived, and i think its amazing they did manage to save their own lives and their home only 500 litres of water..

julia its very hard to understand, but your not protecting your house just for the sake of it, when a fire comes through without warning many were protecting their houses so they could find shelter in there as the fire swept over them..  many died in their homes and really had no option


my brother in law got one call out to the cfa, he told them how many there were in his home and near by, and then the power and the phones went dead..

i have many family members in and around healesville that have for 3 or days and nights had ember attacks and fires all around them, you stay because your able to put out your home, there simply isnt enough people around to stand on your property and fight the embers and keep your home from burning.. they are exhausted and the constant smoke for days on end is also taking its toll health wise..

they will execute their fire plans and they constantly talk to the fire officers and police.. if the winfd changes and they see the flames coming, they will all leave their properties early. 

i saw on Q&A on tv last night the guy with his bunker, the footage of the fire and the noise can be heard clearly.  he was in fairly flat terrrain compared to where my sister is in kinglake, they had no time to do anything other than set up for the fire and do what they could to stay alive..


----------



## kincella (13 February 2009)

just been looking thru the 230 odd photos on the news site...is it glvanised iron or tin from all the roofs that survived the fire  ?? can it be recycled ??? 
imagine if one wanted to build something fireproof....you would have to use that tin or iron or whatever it is...sandwiched in between fireproof cement...or something to stop it being blown away.....
and the wheels of the cars melted...aluminium ??? so what degree of heat would make them melt ??
cheers


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## kincella (13 February 2009)

question for those who know the kilmore to maryville area....I note there is a kinglake to whittlesea rd...just looking at maps
would it be possible for someone on a motorbike...to ride say between kilmore..wandong around trip to flowerdale over to kinglake...
is there a road  between kinglake and marysville ???
recall seeing a photo of a bloke on a black motorbike...they wanted to talk to,
and people said they saw a motorbike with a can on the back driving around...
my question is could one person just ride around...cover 80 klms or so in one night and light all those fires...
people have said ...fires suddenly appeared out of nowhere....
in the news photos...there is a photo no  130 of bike lying on the road...said the driver was killed...and photo no 135...shows a bikerider...near where cars where burnt.....???
just wondering people taking all those photos, if some may have inadvertently captured bike riders ???? or the person responsible...apparently arsonists like to view their work!


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (13 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> calliiope, when you hear of the heartache, the jobs people have to endure, to have to pull burnt bodies of children from homes and cars, to secure crime scenes, the loss the agony the sheer gravity of the situation overwhelms you,   it makes you weep, its not easy for those like the ones working at the morgue, working 12 hours shifts 7 days a week, this is not an opportunity to prosper or to grandstand, this is just a full scale effort to deal with a *bushfire disaster never seen before*.




Actually that is incorrect. It's probable that you haven't seen anything like it before. Throughout Australian history there have been large bushfires like the most recent which have produced fatalities in multiple numbers and have also destroyed many towns. The 1938-39 fires destroyed more of the state forest wise. Considering we have more people living in forested areas it is hardly surprising that we have more fatalities this time.  

For those affected I hope their lives are repaired soon.


----------



## Calliope (13 February 2009)

Agentm has sought to denigrate me for daring to criticize hipocrites and poseurs. He has given me all sorts of nasty labels because he claims I am not grieving enough.

Having lost my wife and my brother through separate avoidable tragic accidents, I can assure him that grief is a private affair confined to family and friends. Of course help and sympathy from outsiders is appreciated, but you don't expect them to grieve over someone they don't even know. However it be normal for them to be upset about the causes of the tragedy.


----------



## MrBurns (13 February 2009)

Everyone grieves in their own way, I cant watch the news without getting a lump in my throat and I've been heading for the bottle more lately.
I too despise the hypocrites and poseurs and aren't afraid to say so.

No one should try the claim the moral high ground here, everyone has their own way of dealing with it .


----------



## Agentm (13 February 2009)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Actually that is incorrect. It's probable that you haven't seen anything like it before. Throughout Australian history there have been large bushfires like the most recent which have produced fatalities in multiple numbers and have also destroyed many towns. The 1938-39 fires destroyed more of the state forest wise. Considering we have more people living in forested areas it is hardly surprising that we have more fatalities this time.
> 
> For those affected I hope their lives are repaired soon.




i totally am with you on your sentiments there snake.

i know a guy who lived in warrandyte in the black friday blaze, his parents had no warning and they simply had no option but to run down the hill and seek cover in the yarra river.

The Black Friday fires of January 13, 1939, in Victoria, Australia, are considered one of the worst natural bushfires (wildfires) in the world, and most certainly the single worst in Australian history as a measure of land affected. Almost 20,000 km ² (4,942,000 acres, 2,000,000 ha) of land was burnt, 71 people died, several towns were entirely destroyed and the Royal Commission that resulted from it led to major changes in forest management. Over 1,300 homes and 69 sawmills were burnt and a total of 3,700 buildings were destroyed. It was calculated that three quarters of the State of Victoria was directly or indirectly affected by the disaster. The Royal Commission into the fires was to note, "it appeared the whole State was alight on Friday, 13 January, 1939".
Conditions

In the days preceding the fires, Melbourne experienced some of its hottest temperatures on record: 43.8  °C (110.8  °F) on January 8 and 44.7  °C (112.4  °F) on January 10. On January 13, the day of the fires, temperatures reached 45.6  °C (114.1  °F), *which remained the hottest day recorded in Melbourne until February 7, 2009,* (although temperatures of around 47  °C (117  °F) were reported on the Black Thursday fires of February 6, 1851).

The summer of 1938–39 had been hot and dry, and several fires had broken out. By early January, fires were burning in a number of locations across the state. Then, on Friday January 13, a strong northerly wind hit the state, causing several of the fires to combine into one massive front.

..............its very much a similar weather pattern in the preceding days, and they had many more days of strong northerlies and their resources would have been nothing like what we have today..

i think the number of houses lost so far is 1831, which is about 500 more homes than black friday, and its about 7000 displaced people resulting  from it.. so your right about smaller hectares burnt but more populated..  

i think the black friday fires were harder to contain with resources being far leaner back then, which quite possibly resulted in far more hectares being burnt..


----------



## Julia (13 February 2009)

kincella said:


> almost no one talks about the misery for both domestic and wild life animals....people are not allowed into the areas....so where is the water and help for the poor suffering animals....everyone giving millions of dollars, food clothing for people....but no one talks about the animals....they would suffer more...they were in the middle of it.....
> now 1800 homes lost....new threat to healsville.....wonder if they have kept the animals in the sanctuary or moved them.....
> sorry guys...all the talk about humans suffering...but zilch about the animals...



Kincella, I share your concern.  I worry more about the animals than the people. And don't anyone come down on me angrily for expressing this.   

There is apparently some great caring going on unreported by the media:



> Kind Hearted People
> One group of 'quiet achievers' who have responded to the urgent call for animal accommodation are from the (mainly) Boarding Members group of the PIAA - Pet Industry Association of Australia.
> 
> In total these people have made available or are currently providing accommodation at no charge for up to 850 dogs and 650 cats.
> ...


----------



## Julia (13 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> julia you said you didnt get this
> 
> "just going back to the basic principle of staying to defend a house, I will just never get this. If bushfire was anywhere in my vicinity I'd be packed and off with the first warning. Let the house burn down. Insurance will rebuild it and provide replacement accommodation of similar standard in the meantime."
> 
> ...




I understand fully that people in the fire affected areas eventually had no choice but to stay.  But for almost a week prior to last Saturday even we up here in Queensland were hearing about the dire risk in Victoria, with the parched ground and forecast high winds and temperatures.  Must have been like a tinderbox.

It's at that stage that I'd have packed up myself and anyone I love, including any animals, and gone to some place where there was no risk of the fire.
Of course, if you leave it until the fire is 50kms from you, hoping it won't envelop your area, you limit your choices.

I don't mean this to sound as though I'm unsympathetic to what anyone has gone through, but unless I'm very much misunderstanding the situation, it wasn't as though immense fires just erupted out of nowhere without any precipitating factors such as the dry ground and air, high winds, and high temperatures.

AgentM, I respect the way you feel.  Perhaps you are more emotional about the situation, understandably, because of your sister's close encounter.
But I do think others should be allowed to express a different point of view without being insulted and criticised.

We've had lifetimes of witnessing the hollow hypocrisy of politicians, so for many of us to be cynical about the sincerity of everything they are saying is, I think, pretty reasonable.

I recall one TV shot of Mr Rudd allowing a fire survivor to weep on his chest.
That cynical part of me thought:  'bet Rudd is thinking what a great photo opportunity this is'.


----------



## MrBurns (13 February 2009)

Julia said:


> I understand fully that people in the fire affected areas eventually had no choice but to stay.  But for almost a week prior to last Saturday even we up here in Queensland were hearing about the dire risk in Victoria, with the parched ground and forecast high winds and temperatures.  Must have been like a tinderbox.
> 
> It's at that stage that I'd have packed up myself and anyone I love, including any animals, and gone to some place where there was no risk of the fire.
> Of course, if you leave it until the fire is 50kms from you, hoping it won't envelop your area, you limit your choices.
> ...




On Saturday morning I said to my son the firebugs will be out today in force and they were.
It was so obvious, I would have been out of there immediately, we've been over this before, the Royal Commission will give all those in Local Govt who aided and abetted this disaster time to position themselves to be absolved.


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## MrBurns (13 February 2009)

Julia said:


> I recall one TV shot of Mr Rudd allowing a fire survivor to weep on his chest.
> That cynical part of me thought:  'bet Rudd is thinking what a great photo opportunity this is'.




He wouldn't be consciously thinking that but the subconscious politician in him would have relished it.


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## moXJO (13 February 2009)

The fact that they tried to link the stimulus package and the fire relief fund together, so they could either rush the package through, or score more brownie points. Which said enough about their character.


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## Prospector (13 February 2009)

We are smelling the smoke of the Victorian bushfires in Adelaide!  For the next few days, because of increasing South easterly winds, we have smog alerts.  Adelaide is at risk for the next few days, and currently there is a fire threatening houses in the south west.


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## tcoates (13 February 2009)

Man charged over Churchill blaze

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/13/2491107.htm


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## Agentm (13 February 2009)

Julia said:


> I understand fully that people in the fire affected areas eventually had no choice but to stay.  But for almost a week prior to last Saturday even we up here in Queensland were hearing about the dire risk in Victoria, with the parched ground and forecast high winds and temperatures.  Must have been like a tinderbox.
> 
> It's at that stage that I'd have packed up myself and anyone I love, including any animals, and gone to some place where there was no risk of the fire.
> Of course, if you leave it until the fire is 50kms from you, hoping it won't envelop your area, you limit your choices.
> ...




julia, i dont know what your talking about here.. 

i replied to your message about your not understanding why people stayed in their homes, and in kinglake  i gave you an account of how it was there. it was as i told you, it caught everyone unaware, and many died on the roads trying to flee. many died in their homes.  

there is no hypocrisy of politicians in calling for a day of mourning for this particular disaster, if you support others on the criticism of this event then so be it, i stand by my remarks and believe its totally within the grounds of normality and rationality to be able to call a day of mourning for the victims families and friends, even if you dont get it, even if you cant have empathy with the victims julia, its still perfectly normal and entirely correct to have a day of mourning.

with all respect julia, i dont agree with you on that point, and i think the criticism is totally uncalled for, not supporting the day of mourning and to criticise the calling of one imho shows little regard for the suffering, and its a real sad state that this type of critcism is this event is occurring. why not wholeheartedly  stand behind them?? 

if you cant allow some latitude those who have suffered enormous loss, of friends ,family and community, and if people do not understand what grief and loss is, or why people need to express it and mourn. or why a leader of the nation would call for one right now..  then the  world really becomes a place lacking humainity imho..

the victims of this disaster absolutely have the support of everyone down here in victoria and we will  certainly join in, stand by them and do everything to help them, and allow them their opportunity to meet as a community to pay homage to the dead, and pray for those still suffering from the aftermath of thsi fire.


no one is political grandstanding here, its entirely correct for the leader of the nation to call for a day of mourning, and if one wasnt called you would have no doubt be just as critical of the prime minister for not calling one for this disaster and  yet considering one for a child murdered on the west gate bridge.

anyone who has suffered personal loss would never be critical of nor even disrespectful of a day of mounring for victims of a disaster of this proportion.


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## Happy (13 February 2009)

tcoates said:


> Man charged over Churchill blaze
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/13/2491107.htm




From above article -


> From ABC, 13 Feb. 09
> 
> The court heard the man is in a fragile mental state and magistrate Clive Alsop made an order that he be assessed by a psychologist.





Softies and dogooders seem to be swarming in already and I bet it will be impossible to conduct fair trial as almost everybody heard of what happened.


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## Agentm (13 February 2009)

a lot of people died in the churchill blaze, the fire was well calculated by the arsonist.


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## IFocus (13 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> julia, i dont know what your talking about here..
> 
> i replied to your message about your not understanding why people stayed in their homes, and in kinglake  i gave you an account of how it was there. it was as i told you, it caught everyone unaware, and many died on the roads trying to flee. many died in their homes.
> 
> ...




Must admit Agentm that I was getting pretty cynical about the coverage and that the net works were milking the emotion for all it was worth.

Hearing your side of the story and the fact many have had the chance to tell their story via the media is I can see very important more so that my cynical opinion thanks for your posts and fantastic your family made it through.

As for the politicians its their job to be in the front line and showing support I think their actions so far have been commendable.

hasn't it being great that sports stars have also been putting in time.


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## MrBurns (13 February 2009)

14 firefighters died on Ash Wednesday , non were lost here that must be a step forward.


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## Julia (13 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> julia, i dont know what your talking about here..



OK.  I'll try again.   What I cannot understand is why anyone living within a couple of hundred kms of any potential fire didn't get away to safety days before the firestorm on Saturday.   If I heard about the risk a week before when I'm in Qld, surely the same risk would have been offered to Victorian people.





> There is no hypocrisy of politicians in calling for a day of mourning for this particular disaster, if you support others on the criticism of this event then so be it, i stand by my remarks and believe its totally within the grounds of normality and rationality to be able to call a day of mourning for the victims families and friends, even if you dont get it, even if you cant have empathy with the victims julia, its still perfectly normal and entirely correct to have a day of mourning.



Whoa there!   I have not commented at all on the day of mourning.
Please don't attribute to me anything I have not said.

I've confined my comments to expressing astonishment that anyone would choose to stay in any part of Victoria that could be affected by these fires, even before they started, just on account of the absolutely dangerous precipitating conditions, and also to sadness for all the dead animals.

And then I've remarked on my cynicism about politicians.   You may well think they are dewy eyed idealists, their only concern being for the well being of their loyal constituents.  I just happen to believe otherwise.






> with all respect julia, i dont agree with you on that point, and i think the criticism is totally uncalled for, not supporting the day of mourning and to criticise the calling of one imho shows little regard for the suffering, and its a real sad state that this type of critcism is this event is occurring. why not wholeheartedly  stand behind them??



See above.  I have made no comment about any day of mourning.
But one thing I do hate is being told how I should feel, and when.

I'm not sure, Agentm, why you seem to have declared yourself the arbiter of the correct level of response and feeling in this sad affair.   As Prospector observed earlier, sadness and grief is a very personal thing.  We don't all get off on all the public stuff.




> its entirely correct for the leader of the nation to call for a day of mourning, and if one wasnt called you would have no doubt be just as critical of the prime minister for not calling one for this disaster and  yet considering one for a child murdered on the west gate bridge.



I've made no judgement on either event.   



> anyone who has suffered personal loss would never be critical of nor even disrespectful of a day of mounring for victims of a disaster of this proportion.



Again, you have appointed yourself the arbiter of other people's feelings.
As I said before, I completely respect your feelings and your right to do whatever you feel comfortable doing, but if other people see things differently or choose to take a less public stand, then that is also their right.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (14 February 2009)

Julia said:


> OK.  I'll try again.   What I cannot understand is why anyone living within a couple of hundred kms of any potential fire didn't get away to safety days before the firestorm on Saturday.   If I heard about the risk a week before when I'm in Qld, surely the same risk would have been offered to Victorian people.



Julia,

Spot fires are known to spread and start well away from a fire. A lot of deaths resulted from spot fires and have done in the past. All of a sudden there is a fire near your house and it is blowing up onto you without any warning. To suggest they should move well within a week is not always practical. Where is a fifth, or a quarter of the state going to go?

The answer is hazard reduction and the elimination of greens controlling decision making. Building bunkers and investing in life saving equipment would be good mitigation tactics to employ.

Fires are good for the land but not when they kill en masse.


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## ghotib (14 February 2009)

Julia said:


> OK.  I'll try again.   What I cannot understand is why anyone living within a couple of hundred kms of any potential fire didn't get away to safety days before the firestorm on Saturday.   If I heard about the risk a week before when I'm in Qld, surely the same risk would have been offered to Victorian people.



We all seem to be getting more and more upset. 

Most of Melbourne is within a couple of hundred kms of these fires. All the southern capitals are within a couple of hundred kms of bad bushfires within the last 10 years. I'm almost sure they've all experienced bushfires well into the suburbs. I live about 6kms towards the Blue Mountains from the Sydney CBD, and I've found burnt leaves in my backyard from fires 70 miles away. It's like cyclones in the tropics. You learn, you adapt, you plan, you get on with life, and sometimes you just plain run out of luck.

How many people have seen the videos taken by people in the midst of the fire? They're really valuable records to help everyone prepare for the next time. We need to learn from the survivors. 

And somebody tell Germs to stop pretending to know everything about Australia. 

Ghoti


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## daisy (14 February 2009)

ghotib said:


> It's like cyclones in the tropics. You learn, you adapt, you plan, you get on with life, and sometimes you just plain run out of luck.
> 
> 
> 
> Ghoti




 Too true.
The first year I lived up here and there was a cyclone warning a group of us packed up and went inland. The cyclone didn’t eventuate. 
The next time a group of us camped in the office of a friend in a heritage stone block building.
The cyclone didn’t eventuate.
Over the years of living with these threats, I haven’t become complacent but I have become pragmatic. Leaving my house means leaving my animals behind and where do you go anyway?
Now when there is a cyclone warning , I clear my yard of anything that might become a flying missile, check batteries and torches, buy a supply of fresh drinking water and food that doesn’t need cooking and have a small bag with essentials packed in case I have to get out in a hurry or get rescued. Include animal food and a couple of CDs of photos in that. (Also a bottle of rum and a block of chocolate) 

It’s more expensive to build or renovate a house up here than down south because building codes insist on extra structural reinforcement because of the cyclone threat.
With all the rebuilding that needs to be done in the Victorian bush fire region it seems to me that it is the perfect time for building regulations to be changed so that it is mandatory to include some kind of fireproof bunker in those plans. From other posts on this and another site and also from that ABC programme last night it appears this is doable for not too much money.


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## daisy (14 February 2009)

I can understand staying to defend your property, as tragic as the consequences of that decision has been for some people.
The thing that I have never been able to understand is why people who choose to live in regions that are known to be under threat of catastrophes such as bushfires, or cyclones etc do not insure their home and/ or contents. This comes up every time something like this happens.  
If it was just people who were living on the breadline and who really couldn’t afford the premiums then I can see how this could happen. But this isn’t always the case.
Personally, I have donated to this appeal. But I have very conflicting emotions about the fact that, while year in year out, I keep my insurance policy up-to-date just in case, some of this appeal money will be used to help people who were probably financially better off than me but for whatever inexplicable reason don't have insurance cover.


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## Julia (14 February 2009)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Julia,
> 
> To suggest they should move well within a week is not always practical. Where is a fifth, or a quarter of the state going to go?



Well, Snake, I would just find a way to make it practical when the alternative could be dying.   Where are people going to go?  Wherever they like - Australia's a big country.


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## daisy (14 February 2009)

Having thought a bit more deeply about my last post I realise that part of my confusion comes from the fact that I have no idea how the millons of dollars that are collected in appeals like this are disbursed.
I'm not talking about the immediate aftermath like right now, everybody who has been caught up in this needs the same amount of help. 
I'm more thinking about the next stage of things.
I also realise that if  this money is used to get everybody short term housing then again everybody also needs the same amount of help.
I guess I don't recall ever hearing about the way that these type of huge donation funds have been disbursed in past situations which is what is causing my confusion about the way this money is spent and so I'm probably way out of order with my last post.


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## Julia (14 February 2009)

ghotib said:


> We all seem to be getting more and more upset.



I'm not upset, Ghoti.  Just prefer not to have words put in my mouth that I'd never consider saying.





> Most of Melbourne is within a couple of hundred kms of these fires. All the southern capitals are within a couple of hundred kms of bad bushfires within the last 10 years.



OK.  I apologise for the suggestion of 200kms.  I'm not familiar with Melbourne or its surrounds.  But it was an arbitrary figure - make it 500kms - or however far it takes to be out of range of hazard.

I'm not making any judgements about what anyone should do or could have done.  I'm just very clear about what I would have done and that would be to protect life in any way possible.


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## MrBurns (14 February 2009)

Looks like they got one - 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/13/2491328.htm


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## MrBurns (14 February 2009)

Julia said:


> Well, Snake, I would just find a way to make it practical when the alternative could be dying.   Where are people going to go?  Wherever they like - Australia's a big country.




Dunno about everyone else but i'd just get in my car and drive....how about that not so hard is it ?


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## Calliope (14 February 2009)

Julia said:


> Whoa there!   I have not commented at all on the day of mourning.
> Please don't attribute to me anything I have not said.
> 
> And then I've remarked on my cynicism about politicians.   You may well think they are dewy eyed idealists, their only concern being for the well being of their loyal constituents.  I just happen to believe otherwise.
> ...




Julia, it was I who made the comment about Rudd's cynical use of "days of mourning." Which I stand by.

I am not sure whether Agentm is more upset by my criticism of Rudd or by my doubts about the value of mass mourning. In either case it has become an obsession with him along with  his attention seeking.


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## Agentm (14 February 2009)

julia

down here we support the pm, and the entire effort..

up north you are miles from this,, and you simply dont get the gravity of this disaster one bit..

why level criticism of the pm for doing what absolutely needs to be done? why not support a day of mourning?

why not back the people and put aside petty criticisms..

in parliament they stand united,  down here we do in victoria.. pity others dont..

but there always clowns who want to criticize..

dont expect my undying respect for support of the criticism.. this is not a time to blame, this is a time to show solidarity and stand behind the people affected,, this absolutely and 100% needed right now..


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## Prospector (14 February 2009)

If there is one thing I have learned from these particular fires, it is that they are unlike anything that has ever been properly observed before.  People who thought they were safe because they lived up to 50 kilometers away from the 'fire' were clearly not safe.  Hubby has just returned from Victoria and he was told of six foot logs of burning tree limbs being hurled through the air tens of kilometers ahead of the fire.  They were not embers, they were basically burning trees!  You cannot survive such an 'attack' of mother nature.  It was like a war front.

So, the question of stay or flight was clearly an impossible one to answer.  So this begs the question, who should have evacuated?  Probably most of country Victoria because all of this area was at risk.  Is still at risk.  Is that reasonable?  And if everyone did run, the roads could not have coped with it, after we are not talking main highways, but country roads. And many of those who did try to escape, were caught by a wind change!

Maybe it was inevitable.  Where people commune so close to heavily wooded areas, well, this is summer and this is Australia.  And that is another question, as you mention Daisy.

SA was also at risk; my mother lives in a retirement village in the foothills; they have fire drills and they were issued with a red alert Saturday.  The ones who were mobile were going to go to a Westfield complex and watch a movie and spend the day in airconditioning.  When they received the red alert, they all decided to stay at home! Right in the red alert area   WT!  Did these 80 - 90 year olds see themselves saving their Units by standing in the ferocious heat with plastic hoses!   People do stupid stupid things.  Needless to say my mother received a dressing down from all the family.  They would never have made it out had the worst happen - most of them dont drive!  

But many of the victims in Victoria didnt make bad decisions like my mother, they were just caught up in a totally evil situation that no-one saw coming.

I heard also that the '000' operators are under extreme stress; they were taking calls from people as they were screaming as they died.  So many people will be affected forever.

However I do think the commercial television stations have begun making this tragedy the reason for their existence.


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## profit off it (14 February 2009)

Welcome to Melbourne.... if you can see it through the smoke haze. At least it only _looks_ worse than it is. Apparently most fires are now under some sort of control. Unfortunately there are never any guarantees of what may come next. Especially with some sickos out there who repeatedly light new fires. The guy who was caught is "fragile" according to authorities. Sorry, but I know people who could also be considered "fragile" and they don't do criminal things like this. Are we likely to see him in a wheelchair breathing through an oxygen mask a la Skase, Bond etc?


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## MrBurns (14 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> julia
> 
> down here we support the pm, ..




Speak for yourself, there's a growing awareness that he's a complete tosser.


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## Calliope (14 February 2009)

Agentm said:


> julia
> 
> down here we support the pm, and the entire effort..
> 
> ...




It was me,stupid, not Julia. 

It is not for me to judge you for your obsessional belief in the value of organised mass mourning. However I suspect your grandstanding on the issue may be an attempt to divert attention away from the state of denial that you are in regarding the role that you and other opponents  of controlled burning played in this tragedy.

The Royal Commission will sort this out in due course. No doubt they will take into consideration that in south-west WA, where they have controlled burning, they haven't lost a life in a bushfire in nearly half a century.


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## Prospector (14 February 2009)

There is an ecumenical (I dont even know how to spell the word!) service in Adelaide tonight.  Not exactly sure what good it will do.  

AgentM, everyone of has had had their share of personal tragedy; and each has their own way of dealing with it.  I just dont understand the National Day of Mourning - I think practical help in terms of donations, time to sort out clothes, etc etc is what people need right now.  I spent time at the collection centre in Adelaide sorting through donations.  Donated money to Red Cross, RSPCA and Daisy's group.  I am fully aware of the sheer size of the tragedy as my Dad was born in western Victoria and we went there plenty of times. I am thinking of them right now without needing a National Day of Mourning to do that.  Of course the victims themselves will need this, I just dont think that John Smith from SA or NT has the right to this. Just my thoughts.

Hey Mr Burns, no need to push that barrow here, time will sort that one out.


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## kincella (14 February 2009)

no..do not like the pm either
but read this...from a royal commission 70 years ago...eerily familar...but they only had horse and carts in those days....
but the weather was similar.......
only difference....today a huge build up of dry material, sitting there just waiting to fuel a fire....and a car or bike that can cover 100klms in an hour or more..to transport several arsonists compelled to burn it and everyone in it...
*** why no more deaths reported ??? stopped about tues or wed...
another blogger or another site has suggested the 181 is estimated from those in the cars....they have only started on the houses, with 9 in one house....could it run into the 1000's

and 2 firetrucks and 550 houses in marysville...odds stacked against them

http://www.theage.com.au/national/her-beauty-and-her-terror-20090214-87a2.html


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## MrBurns (14 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> Hey Mr Burns, no need to push that barrow here, time will sort that one out.




Just refuting that "down here we all support the pm"

Re spelling download this it's free - 

http://www.iespell.com/

then just right click to spell check text input boxes on a webpage


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## daisy (14 February 2009)

I arrived in London a few days after the terrorist bombings. During that first week, there was a declared period of silence for one day at midday for one minute. (I think it was one minute)
This had nothing to do with me and I had even forgotten about it. When it happened, I was sitting at a table outside a pub and it took me a few seconds to realise what was going on. Everybody just stopped and stood still. I stood as a mark of respect and spent the time thinking about all the families whose loved ones would never come home again. I did not know any of those people but it was a very powerful moment. And if it helped any of those friends and families to know that they were in everybody’s thoughts then I’m glad I did it.
Maybe a whole day is too much. Maybe just one concentrated moment would have been better.


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## IFocus (14 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> The Royal Commission will sort this out in due course. No doubt they will take into consideration that in south-west WA, where they have controlled burning, they haven't lost a life in a bushfire in nearly half a century.




There have been plenty of deaths here in the west due to bush fire!

http://home.iprimus.com.au/foo7/fireswa.html note the weather conditions

As for the south west control burns may be a factor but if you have lived in the area you would know that any day they get weather conditions like Victoria they will get the same results I fear control burns wont save them.


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## Prospector (14 February 2009)

daisy said:


> And if it helped any of those friends and families to know that they were in everybody’s thoughts then I’m glad I did it.
> Maybe a whole day is too much. Maybe just one concentrated moment would have been better.




I can understand the impact of a minute's silence, and I think that is a much better idea than a National Mourning Day. But surely with all the fund raising money pouring in, and the huge trucks that are coming in with clothing, etc etc; I guess I presume that they know we are thinking of them by doing something about it and not just 'thinking'?  But then, maybe I am just a pragmatic poo-bar!


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## Calliope (14 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Re spelling download this it's free -
> 
> http://www.iespell.com/
> 
> then just right click to spell check text input boxes on a webpage




Google Chrome, which is my preferred browser, has it's own spellcheck. If you use it you may be bemused that it does not recognised the word 'bushfire." You have to give it a tweak to change it from US English to UK English.


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## kincella (14 February 2009)

*Re: Victorian Fires - ideas to survive them*

how about everyone is directed to a safety zone....that has been cleared for 500 yards in all directions.....a huge sprinkler system in the centre, the firies and helicopters, control the outside perimeter...just concentrate on saving whatever is in the centre of it...people, dogs . cat animals, horses cars.......

instead of the helicopter concentrating on stopping fires...in an unstoppable situation...they concentrate on saving lives and animals...that have gone to the safety zone....
another thing...if it rains or a sprinkler in place...that should stop the radiant heat??? should it not....goes in a straight line until it reaches an object that is cold or a lower heat....

just wondering re the bunker idea....if there is water or a fire resistant object in its path ???

oh and is there a fire repellent spray that could be sprayed on the perimeter of my fire zone......have seen american helicopters spraying a red dust over fires...


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## Prospector (14 February 2009)

*Re: Victorian Fires - ideas to survive them*



kincella said:


> oh and is there a fire repellent spray that could be sprayed on the perimeter of my fire zone......have seen american helicopters spraying a red dust over fires...



They have been spraying fire retardants; one of the problems though is that some of these areas are near Melbourne's water catchment areas; they are concerned about getting the retardant into Melbourne's water supply!


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## It's Snake Pliskin (14 February 2009)

Julia said:


> Well, Snake, I would just find a way to make it practical when the alternative could be dying.   Where are people going to go?  Wherever they like - Australia's a big country.



Julia,

I have been in a situation back in the 1983 fires when I was told to leave my parents house along with my mother. We had hours notice not days. It didn't eventuate because the wind changed. The fire continued for days after. 

Yes it is a big country. 
Cheers.


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## kincella (14 February 2009)

ok for now talking about the future...am sure they could find some spots that are not near catchment areas , until such times as they can remove the poison from the water....fit 500 people or more into the areas...save their lives...
scattered all around , say 50klms or more...and people must evacuate or fend for themselves....

still danger this fire season... this could happen again tomorrow.....guess people might be safe rushing back to an already burnt out area...nothing left there to burn

or not allow them to rebuild in those areas....and as for the farmers...allow them to clear the land around the house and enough room to protect livestock and equipment....

I know not to get in the car to drive...not in suburban Melb...tried to get to the beach one very hot day...15 min trip ordinary day...got stuck in traffic,,, an hour later, still not there, so drove home...


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## Agentm (14 February 2009)

i am curious what the yarra will look like in a while if it rains in the yarra catchment or yarra valley any time soon. i remember rivers turning black when the high plains fires went through.

kincella, its crazy out in there in the traffic, took me 15 minutes to get from chapel st to my street (4 km) just before..

i had to shorten my bike ride big time his morning, i had planned on a long run but settled for a 70km short run instead, the air ended up thick with smoke, many riders were really feeling it. it was tollerable when i went out, but when the sunrise came out as a bright red sun i figured it wasnt going to last, and the wind was picking up, so i got back as it really started to get bad..  at the south melb market rooftop carpark, usually it gives you the bolte bridge and westgate bridge views..  even the bolte bridge which is 2.4 km away was not visible at all.

a lot of family i know living in healesville are totally exhausted by the fire. they have to contend with ember attacks and smoke all the time. visibility is way down there compared to melbourne. its been days and days of mt st leonards and mt riddel that has prevented them from leaving. if the fire was further away they could leave and get fresh air. they dont complain about it, but its tiring a lot of people thats for sure..

in the black friday fires a lot of houses were lost in healesville, and the ambition of the locals and the fire services is to back burn, and to contain the fires there and keep it safe from the wind change thats expected in a coming days..


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## Calliope (14 February 2009)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25051467-5018722,00.html

This is an extract from the above article in the Weekend Australian.  


> These fires killed en masse for the same reasons as Ash Wednesday and Black Friday: because experts and ordinary folk alike underestimated the bush.
> 
> Two quotes from the previous disasters offer confirmation that each generation of Australians gets caught making the same basic mistake.
> 
> ...


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## kincella (14 February 2009)

hmmm...I suffer from asthma now , so going out is a problem...bit of smoke inside the house now....
at least the people burnt out in all those areas have somewhere safe to go now...just go back where its already burnt...reasonably safe there now

but wondering what of the others...yet to be burned...areas

does anyone like my idea of gathering in the footy ground, and having the firebrigade protect that one area...instead of wasting water on homes...bring it all together to save lives...
thinking out loud here...could be another like last saturday...what would they do ??? what would you do ?
so far all my old ideas of how to save self...are out the window...in that type of fire...
about 500 yards to the yarra river with the dog...but cannot swim....doubt if we could make it to the beach in the traffic...what else
used to think you go to a cleared area with a woollen blanket.....memo need to buy a woollen blanket...and a big piece of aluminium foil to cover it....
or go down and camp on the beach for a few days, with the dog....
I would have thought we dont have so many gum trees in the city, so would not see the same situation....but now I have my doubts, that we could cope ???


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## Agentm (14 February 2009)

at the kinglake firestorm, its reported that the temperature was as high as 1400 degrees

http://www.theage.com.au/interactive/2009/national/darkestday/gmap_age.html


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## tech/a (15 February 2009)

At a party last night and one topic was.

"Haven't seen church/religious groups rushing to donate or aid the Bushfire/Flood causes"

Salvo's weren't seen as a church group I might add.(Not that I agree).

I was thinking of those TV gospel chanting money making type churches and so were many of the others.


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## Prospector (15 February 2009)

tech/a said:


> At a party last night and one topic was.
> 
> "Haven't seen church/religious groups rushing to donate or aid the Bushfire/Flood causes"
> 
> ...




Ah, but they are saying prayers Tech/A  That will provide moral sustenance!  And eventually they may claim that their spiritual guidance has been the reason why so much money has been raised.

If you regard religion as your way of life, then the Salvation Army is definately there.

I also read in the Herald Sun online a few days ago that one Baptist/minor group Minister had said that the bushfires were because of the Victorian Government's stand on abortion.  That story got pulled off very quickly though as I havent heard any more of it.

And now, the Victorian Government and SPOZ are in a class action of the Kinglake and surrounding fires - seems they started near an electricity pole.  SPOZ is a Singapore company and its liability is limited to $100million but the class action is for hundreds of millions.  Which the Vic Gov are liable for. Ouch!


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## kincella (15 February 2009)

jihadists revel in our misery....article in the news today....and I recall seeing an article nov/dec 08 that jIhads said they should all go out and light fires in autralia...as pay back...do as much damage as possible...and it was easy...
do not have time today to find it...
here is todays story
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25054889-2862,00.html


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## kincella (15 February 2009)

Claus Hauth, whose house near Wandong stands untouched next to neighbours' charred homes, attributed his luck to buying a more expensive weatherboard. 

"We wanted something that was termite-proof - turns out it's bushfire-proof as well," he said.

Only 20,000 extra in costs to fireproof that house...


http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25054657-2862,00.html


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## daisy (15 February 2009)

kincella said:


> does anyone like my idea of gathering in the footy ground, and having the firebrigade protect that one area...instead of wasting water on homes...bring it all together to save lives...




Kincella,
I haven't been to Victoria for over 20 years so I have no idea of the demographics and the layout but I've been thinking along the same lines as you. I've also been thinking about the communal air raid shelters in U.K. in WW2.
This might be an idea for some of the smaller towns that are in and will continue to be in the frontline.
They could be council maintained etc. 
But my idea or yours it seems to me that from the sounds of the way this fire moved and the speed at which it moved how early would you have to start evacuating people? And there will be many people who won't want to leave until the very last moment because of pets, livestock  etc.
Then as others have pointed out it's a matter of getting everybody there on time without causing panic and traffic problems and accidents. 

It will be very interesting to see what comes out of the Royal Commission.
It seems as if much of this tragedy could have been averted by a bit more land clearing etc. Personally I am a pale greenie...pale because I fully believe in commonsense and things can be carried to extremes like not clearing dead wood on the sides of the road.etc That's one side of it.

The other side is that it seems that people live in these small towns because they like being surrounded by leafy green. I know I do. So it is a matter of taking the bad with the good. Which is why if I lived in those constantly threatened regions I would have a personal fire bunker which I maintained and kept in good order. 

Of course that's easy to say in hindsight but hopefully this horrible horrible tragedy will produce some constructive and practical solutions to carry forward so that something like this never happens again. I don't mean that fires can be prevented but surely the loss of human life can be.

Up North, we all learnt a lot from Cyclone Tracey and nothing of that magnitude has ever reoccurred. As I said earlier our building codes changed and while it is unfeasible for a whole town to evacuate we are all prepared to do what needs to be done to prevent the loss of human life.

Hopefully the Royal Commission will do the same for Victoria.


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## daisy (15 February 2009)

kincella said:


> Claus Hauth, whose house near Wandong stands untouched next to neighbours' charred homes, attributed his luck to buying a more expensive weatherboard.
> 
> "We wanted something that was termite-proof - turns out it's bushfire-proof as well," he said.
> 
> ...




And worth every cent of it.


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## Judd (15 February 2009)

daisy said:


> Hopefully the Royal Commission will do the same for Victoria.




How many bloody inquires are needed.  Look at them!

http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/nrenf...574950010118E44688EB30B57BF124A2567CB000DB2EF

Then there was the Bushfire Judicial Inquiry 2005 in NSW and that of 2001/2002.

In the main, they basically say the same frigging thing: Get the fuel load down before the darn thing blows up and educate the populace.


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## daisy (15 February 2009)

Judd said:


> How many bloody inquires are needed.  Look at them!
> 
> http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/nrenf...574950010118E44688EB30B57BF124A2567CB000DB2EF
> 
> ...




Judd, I had no idea.
So why is this still happening?


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## tech/a (15 February 2009)

daisy said:


> Judd, I had no idea.
> So why is this still happening?





No one can make a decision.
No one can implement action.

All they can do is talk about it.
Governments are the most in efficient form of organisation known to man.
As  business they would have been bankrupt in every term.
Yet we give them around 50% of our earnings to squander.

You find polititians thrust into major corporate roles with no idea how to run a deli let alone a portfolio.---So they talk about it!


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## kincella (15 February 2009)

daisy,
the royal commission following the 1939 bushfires...over 70 years ago...could have been made this week...it states what the problem was and how to fix it....absolutley nothing has changed from 70 years ago....except we have had 70 years of additional build up of material, leaves and rubbish just lying in wait for the same thing to happen again...plus an increased population to burn...
and apart from the wealthier tree changes....most of that population were young people with families, who could not afford to own homes closer to the cities ....the housing was much cheaper out there....

were they greenies ???? all talk about the love of the bush....in the old days before being 'green' became fashionable.....we used to call people who lacked experience in any given task...as green....aka like a young tree root....it had yet to grow up and mature...

as for evacuation....it should have been done by friday...there were warnings all week....the clue in future is ,,,if the temp is high near 35- 40 degrees, and  winds above 40-50kph....then get out to safety...all in an orderly fashion
if people want to stay....tell them..there will be no one to help you...thats the truth...no ifs and buts......2 firetrucks and 550 homes...3000 people in one town.....and the firetrucks were in another town, helping others....

oh and if you see the maps of  VIC where the fires are...it also shows about 1/3rd to 1/2 is national parks.....with no maintenance....the last big fires in 2006 in VIC  wiped out over 1 million acres.....so with another 6 weeks of hot weather....there is more to burn
oh and I would doubt QLD  would be much different....regarding amount of material waiting to burn...or the govts..green attitude
cheers


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## Calliope (15 February 2009)

daisy said:


> Judd, I had no idea.
> So why is this still happening?




NewsCom item;


> VICTORIA Police Chief Commission Christine Nixon says authorities are still determining how the Kinglake bushfire started, amid reports victims have launched legal action against the state government and a private power company over the blaze.




I think the victims of these fires have a good case for a Class action against the Green Party for their continued opposition to fuel reduction despite every bushfire enquiry in the past pointing out that the heat and ferocity of these fires is proportional to the level of fuel on the forest floor.

And these levels  have reached massive proportions since controlled burning in the cold months reached negligible proportions in the Victorian danger zones.

But of course these levels could not have been reached without the willing complicity of the State politicians who will stoop to any levels to keep Green preferences.

I think our image of the valiant tree huggers throwing themselves in front of bulldozers to save the forest needs a reappraisal. They might be forced by public opinion to give priority to saving people.


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## daisy (15 February 2009)

kincella said:


> daisy,
> oh and if you see the maps of  VIC where the fires are...it also shows about 1/3rd to 1/2 is national parks.....with no maintenance....the last big fires in 2006 in VIC  wiped out over 1 million acres.....so with another 6 weeks of hot weather....there is more to burn
> oh and I would doubt QLD  would be much different....regarding amount of material waiting to burn...or the govts..green attitude
> cheers




 I've just been devastated by the loss of life and  answers seem so simple when you're as far away as I am. I can only hope that maybe this time will be the last time.

I was also going to say that we don't have bushfire problems in Qld so the gov'ts green attitude is not so relevant. However there were huge problems in Brisbane earlier this year with gale force winds and trees that fell over so I take your point.


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## daisy (15 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> NewsCom item;
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Thanks Calliope. So therein lies the problem.


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## daisy (15 February 2009)

kincella said:


> daisy,
> 
> and apart from the wealthier tree changes....most of that population were young people with families, who could not afford to own homes closer to the cities ....the housing was much cheaper out there....
> 
> cheers



This is something that hasn't really been brought out in the press. I was thinking wealthy tree changers and generations of the same families.

And this explains the number of fatalities that were children. Something I've  found particularly difficult to deal with. (I'm sure we all have)
Economic reasons for living in these areas would most likely have meant extra money for bunkers wasn't available.
I did read that article you posted the link for about recommended building in future. I guess that extra cost will also mean these fireprone regions will become beyond the reach of younger families leaving them even more squeezed.
So now I better understand your solution by having a central area kept safe for everyone to go to.
Calliope, I would truly like to see a class action against the Greens. They do need to be held accountable for their irresponsible extremism (something that has always prevented me from voting for them.) 
And if this were to occur it may help loosen the stranglehold that they have on state gov'ts...so that this kind of unnecessary loss of life never happens again.


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## Prospector (15 February 2009)

Is it totally the green's fault though?  

People in Melbourne who have holiday homes in the areas affected say they are surrounded by ancient towering eucalytpus trees.  People go to these areas because they want to be with the trees.  I cant help but think that there is the ultimate irony that you go to an area because of the bush, then you cut it down so you can live there?

In not all towns, but certainly in some, people should not have been allowed to build there unless they can afford to build the bunkers that could save their lives one day!


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## Calliope (15 February 2009)

After all the maudlin hypocritical platitudes issuing from the mouths of some politicians over the last week, it is ironic that the much derided Wilson Tuckey is the only one with the guts to apologise to the victims, for the role he played in letting  the conditions for this inferno develop, in this press release;


> "I apologise to the people of Australia and particularly to those who have been directly affected by the Victorian wildfires, for my tolerance of the public policy that failed to maintain our forest estate as a safe environment. I didn't adequately prosecute the slogan: No Fuel, No Fire! My fault over the last five years is to fail to influence the Australian political establishment that certain public policy, driven by the pursuit of minor party preferences, was a recipe for disaster of the greatest possible magnitude for humanity and the forest itself.
> 
> "Worse, as the evidence I provided parliament on November 27, 2003 in the enclosed tabling speech ... demonstrates, I knew better."


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## MrBurns (15 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> After all the maudlin hypocritical platitudes issuing from the mouths of some politicians over the last week, it is ironic that the much derided Wilson Tuckey is the only one with the guts to apologise to the victims, for the role he played in letting  the conditions for this inferno develop, in this press release;




Yes that did take guts, good on him.


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## Julia (15 February 2009)

Yes, kudos to Wilson Tuckey.   He's one of the few politicians who genuinely says what he thinks, rather than what he thinks sounds good.


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## Romano (15 February 2009)

We can all say 
"there but for the grace of god go I".
It could have been just about anywhere in Victoria that these fires occured. It has been so dry and so hot for such a long time, that one spark and anything could go up.
It all very well to say the building code has to change in "fire prone areas", but I think last Saturday that was just about every corner of the state.
There was a fire in suburban Melbourne (Narre Warren) and again through the week in Ivanhoe, that could have got out of control.
Do we call Narre Warren fire prone?  It really could have been anywhere, the circumstances would have been the same.
fifty seven home burnt down in Bendigo, they were no in what you would call fire prone areas, they were just in the suburbs, 1km from the centre of town.
So does the building code have to change for all housing?


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## daisy (15 February 2009)

Dunno Ramano.
I've been in a state of disbelief about the death toll and I guess I was just trying to apply what I know to something that I clearly do not know. 
It's scary isn't it?
What would you do?


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## Romano (15 February 2009)

We have lived in a state forest for the last 15 years, and always believed that we would stay, because we had a "fire plan".
For the first time in 15 years we were genuinely frightened last Saturday, before we even knew what was happening at Kinglake & Marysville.  It was just one hell of a day.
Our so called fire plan changed late in the afternoon when we decided that we would go, not stay and defend, as we always said we would. Its just not worth it.
Yes, we have a lovely home, and all those possessions, but I think that we all have to get over the notion of stay and defend.  In those conditions, no house is safe, you just cannot do it. 
It is the nature of the Australian bush to burn, and burn fiercely, we cannot tame that.  If we live amongst it, I now believe we must be prepared to evacuate. Your life is just not worth it.


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## daisy (15 February 2009)

Ramano.
Glad you got out. House and possessions are replaceable. Loved ones aren't.
A few people on this site have said they could see it coming but the papers and T.V. say people were caught by surprise because of the speed of it.
Then there are pictures of car accidents and pile ups and cars with people burnt inside them because they left it too late and fled in panic and terror. I can think of no worse way to die than by fire. I was just thinking that if they had had a bunker they wouldn't have.
And I agree the stay and defend policy does need revisiting but if entire towns have to evacuate where do all these people go and how early must they make that decision? I was thinking that human nature would probably mean that many people would still leave it too late.
I guess that becomes their choice then.


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## Calliope (15 February 2009)

Doesn't this tug at your heartstrings. It is obviously not posed.


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## sam76 (15 February 2009)

I like the bemused look on the woman next to him...


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## sam76 (15 February 2009)

Lessons from the ashes

Michael Bachelard and Melissa Fyfe 

February 15, 2009 

Were the fires a freakish combination of unavoidable circumstances, or could their impact have been less lethal? Michael Bachelard and Melissa Fyfe explain the key issues facing the royal commission.


http://www.theage.com.au/national/lessons-from-the-ashes-20090215-8810.html?page=-1


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## Smurf1976 (15 February 2009)

daisy said:


> I would truly like to see a class action against the Greens. They do need to be held accountable for their irresponsible extremism (something that has always prevented me from voting for them.)
> And if this were to occur it may help loosen the stranglehold that they have on state gov'ts...so that this kind of unnecessary loss of life never happens again.



I will simply note that:

1. The Greens have never been elected in their own right to govern any Australian state. The closest they have come was the Labor-Green Accord in Tasmania 1989 -1992 and more recently all but wiping out the Liberals, also in Tasmania, thus becoming a legitmate opposition party. But the Greens have never won a majority at a state election.

2. Despite the above, the Greens have been remarkably successful at having their policies implemented. Most of those policies, and the party itself, lacked majority public support at the time. There are exceptions of course, but certainly the Greens have managed to get an awful lot of policies implemented despite never being in government.

I'll leave it at that and state that my comment is more about democracy than anything specifically to do with the fires.


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## MrBurns (15 February 2009)

Donations now around $100M thats enough to replace every uninsured house lost.
Thats serious money I hope non of it disappears.


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## shaunQ (15 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Donations now around $100M thats enough to replace every uninsured house lost.
> Thats serious money I hope non of it disappears.




I don't know how true it is, but ABC news just said that the average family of 4 children would get $10K. And I assume the 4 children would be make them get a higher amount. I saw an estimate that there was around 1000 houses.

So, thats $10Million. I appreciate that there would be other costs, but I hope that other $90Million is not going into thin air or into certain infrastructure that could be replaced by Government or Insurance, not charity.


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## Smurf1976 (15 February 2009)

Julia said:


> OK.  I'll try again.   What I cannot understand is why anyone living within a couple of hundred kms of any potential fire didn't get away to safety days before the firestorm on Saturday.



But where would they go? We're talking about evacuating, amongst other things, the entire city of Melbourne if we take that couple of hundred km literally.

OK, they could all drive to SA. But I don't see Adelaide having enough hotels to put an extra three million people in the city given that Adelaide only has 1 million residents to start with. And you won't find 3 million spare beds in Sydney either.

And what about islands? In the Australian context we've got one, Tasmania, with half a million people and its own history of horror fires which rank right up there among Australia's biggest natural disasters in terms of lives lost. It's not going to be easy evacuating an entire state, especially when it's an island where there are a lot more fires than most people realise.

I can see your point but I just don't see it working in practice. At least not whilst people have jobs etc to go to and can't simply walk away from everything because there's a fire burning at the other end of the state (any state). We'd be evacuating entire cities, and at least one entire state, many times each year - it's not a 1 in 100 year event more like a once a week scenario during the fire season.


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## Calliope (15 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> There are exceptions of course, but certainly the Greens have managed to get an *awful* lot of policies implemented despite never being in government.
> .




Exactly, and *awful* is the keyword. It's  because, as Daisy says, they have a strangle hold on some State governments who value their preferences above their principles.


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## daisy (15 February 2009)

I have just had a colleague of my husband to dinner. He used to live in Adelaide Hills and has been through two fires there. He now lives in Brissy. He said that he knew these fires were going to happen because the weather conditions were perfect for arsonists. Although I was aware that arson has been attributed as a cause of these fires and that someone had been caught, I had not appreciated the full implications of this, but from what our guest was saying this fire was a given.


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## Julia (15 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> But where would they go? We're talking about evacuating, amongst other things, the entire city of Melbourne if we take that couple of hundred km literally.



Is it really likely that the entire city of Melbourne would burn?   That's quite an extrapolation from the places like Marysville which was as I understand it constructed amongst hills and gullies of trees.  i.e. people moved there in order to live in a country environment surrounded by mature trees.
A big difference from the concrete and steel of capital cities.




> OK, they could all drive to SA. But I don't see Adelaide having enough hotels to put an extra three million people in the city given that Adelaide only has 1 million residents to start with. And you won't find 3 million spare beds in Sydney either.



Smurf this sort of exaggeration is out of character for you.
Frankly I couldn't care less if there are beds available or not.  We're talking about saving lives here.   Wouldn't you sleep in your car for a couple of nights if it meant being alive at the end of it?

Jeez, I'd get on a plane to NZ if necessary!


Frankly, I'm getting pretty sick of defending the fact that I said *what I would do is to leave at the first warning of danger.  That, in the current scenario, was a week before the fire storm.*
I have not said everyone should do this.   It's up to individuals to do what they think is best.  But clearly deciding to stay to defend your damn house has been less than productive for many who did this.






> I can see your point but I just don't see it working in practice. At least not whilst people have jobs etc to go to



Sure as hell won't be going to any job if you're dead!


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## Julia (15 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> But where would they go? We're talking about evacuating, amongst other things, the entire city of Melbourne if we take that couple of hundred km literally.



I've already said the 200kms was an arbitrary distance.  I've apologised for my ignorance in not being familiar with Victoria.

Aren't you making a rather unreasonable extrapolation to take hamlets like Marysville which seems to have been a tree change situation, with houses nestled in amongst mature eucalypts, and extend the idea to Melbourne with its concrete and steel inner city?   Have whole cities ever burned, other than as a result of bombs?

Where would they go?  I don't care.   So there wouldn't be enough hotel beds if everyone left.  (1) everyone would not leave.   (2) if it meant saving your life wouldn't you be prepared to sleep in your car for a couple of nights?
Jeez, I'd get on a plane to NZ if necessary.  Or Lord Howe Island.  Or FNQ.  No fires up there.





> At least not whilst people have jobs etc to go to



Well they sure as hell won't be going to any jobs if they're dead!

Frankly I'm getting a bit sick of defending the fact that I said *what I would do in such a situation is to leave at the first warning.  This occurred a week before the firestorm.*
I have not said everyone should have done this.  It's up to individuals to make their own choices.  Which they did.  And which have clearly been less than productive in hundreds of instances.


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## Smurf1976 (15 February 2009)

Julia said:


> Smurf this sort of exaggeration is out of character for you.
> Frankly I couldn't care less if there are beds available or not.  We're talking about saving lives here.   Wouldn't you sleep in your car for a couple of nights if it meant being alive at the end of it?
> 
> Jeez, I'd get on a plane to NZ if necessary!



What I'm thinking of is this.

I would have to check some figures, but if I take the option of leaving any time there's a fire within a couple of hundred km then I'm looking at spending a couple of months every year sleeping somewhere else. Fire isn't rare in Australia.

I flew from Adelaide to Melbourne early last November and remember thinking that much of Vic was ready to basicaly blow up the moment a fire started. It really does look that dry from the air, and that was 3 months before the fires. 

Using the "better safe than sorry" approach, we would have evacuated just about every small town in Vic whenever it became even moderately warm or windy. I think the average person, their partners, children, pets and so on would be totally fed up with this by now. Back home for a day or two then evacuated again. I just don't think people would or even could accept living like that.

I'm just trying to keep this in perspective. Yes it's a terrible disaster to have lost so many lives but the odds of any one individual being killed by bushfire remain incredibly small. Even on the day of the disaster, and we seem to get one day like that about every two _decades_, most deaths in Australia weren't due to the fires. Roughly 21 million people and we live for about 80 years. That's over 700 deaths every single day. The odds of any one individual being killed by bushfire are very, very small.


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## milothedog (16 February 2009)

Too late at night too be trawling through this forum.....but have been on the computer to re check fire conditions...again......   We live in a fire prone area and fully accept the risks.  Last Saturday morning we left our home, taking our family and pre packed fire boxes to a safer suburban location, and stayed away for the day.  

On a quiet night tonight, with few incident reports, we attended a fire guard meeting at the local CFA depot.  This was held to inform residents of our options and choices during the threat of fire (attended by approximately 300 people).  During this session our local CFA were put on standby for a call out.  Our CFA, as are others CFA units, are neighbours, friends, parents, valued members of our local community.  22 units attended the call, 5kms away.  This threat has since been downgraded, but CFA units continue to patrol..... Fire is not something that can be easily controlled, contained, or abetted.  

I guess my point is...to assume, that you have a week to decide if you should be leaving an area, is a nonsense....last Saturday there was little more than hours, for some less than that.... no fire is the same in formation....every fire is the same in effect.  Have a thorough fire plan in place.


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## Julia (16 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> s.
> 
> I would have to check some figures, but if I take the option of leaving any time there's a fire within a couple of hundred km then I'm looking at spending a couple of months every year sleeping somewhere else.
> 
> ...





I've lived in Australia for 16 years and never before have I heard via Qld radio that the risk of fire in regional Victoria was *extreme*and that the conditions following sustained excessively high temperatures (high 40's), tinder dry ground and forecast high winds were *unprecedented.*
Not 'moderately warm and windy" at all.

And to suggest as an extrapolation of my suggesting I would have acted on such a warning and left well in advance of the fire would mean every small town in Victoria would have to be evacuated every week or so during the summer is simply silly.



milothedog said:


> I guess my point is...to assume, that you have a week to decide if you should be leaving an area, is a nonsense....last Saturday there was little more than hours,




Such warnings were  broadcast in Qld a whole week before last Saturday's fire.   I cannot believe that similar warning was not happening in Victoria!


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## Prospector (16 February 2009)

I disagree that there were only hours notice.  On Friday night the warnings in Adelaide were dire; Saturday was going to be the worst day ever experienced for the possibility of a major fire.  We were on extreme red alert.  The worst warnings I have ever heard.  Victoria would have been the same.

Individual hamlets were not identified early, but really, the whole area was at grave risk.  From Thursday onwards and especially Saturday morning, the atmosphere was evil.  Like Ash Wednesday.

Reading the Australian and the actions of the 'war centre' made it seem like they knew nothing was happening.  Bizarre.  And the wind change that seems to have takne them by surprise and caught many citizens out, to die - that was predicted on Friday! 

If I lived in Melbourne I obviously would not have considered anything was necessary.  If I lived near/within 30 kilometres of a wooded area, I would like to think that maybe today was the day I packed the family and went to Melbourne for the day.  On the other hand, that would leave any animals I loved completely exposed to any trouble.  Pack the dogs and cats with you but many had actual livestock.  Taking the small animals would limit where you could go for the day. As Julia said, you wouldnt need a bed until the full extent of what was happening became apparent, and then you could have found refuge somewhere.

Well, I know what I would have done.  We get tired of hearing people say in Adelaide, "why dont you live in the Hills, it is beautiful and so close to town'.  Well, we know that, but for many years now we have made the decision not to lve their because every summer almost every warm day we have the same terrifying warning - Adelaide hills are on bushfire alert!  So we dont live there!


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## Calliope (16 February 2009)

Julia said:


> Frankly I'm getting a bit sick of defending the fact that I said *what I would do in such a situation is to leave at the first warning.  This occurred a week before the firestorm.*
> I have not said everyone should have done this.  It's up to individuals to make their own choices.  Which they did.  And which have clearly been less than productive in hundreds of instances.




Julia,

 In these days of highly charged emotions it is risky business to make a comment  or ask a question that some people do not want to hear. To even suggest that some of the victims could possibly have made the wrong decision about whether to stay or flee, or to query why they were allowed to build houses in these potential firetraps in the first place, are heresies that will not be tolerated while emotions are riding so high.

Mr Rudd on the other is a master manipulator of people's emotions. He is using every cynical trick in his book to harness these emotions while they are still running high. Strangely enough the news media see nothing wrong with this, being master manipulators in their own right.


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## Prospector (16 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Julia,
> 
> In these days of highly charged emotions it is risky business to make a comment  or ask a question that some people do not want to hear. To even suggest that some of the victims could possibly have made the wrong decision about whether to stay or flee, or to query why they were allowed to build houses in these potential firetraps in the first place, are heresies that will not be tolerated while emotions are riding so high.




The Royal Commission is either going to be a doozy or a complete whitewash then, isn't it!


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## Bushman (16 February 2009)

Julia said:


> Such warnings were  broadcast in Qld a whole week before last Saturday's fire.   I cannot believe that similar warning was not happening in Victoria!




They were - John Brumby went on to the airwaves and print media on the Friday to suggest to Vicotrians that the conditions on 7 February would be some of the worst bushfire conditions the state has ever seen and to stay off the roads unless you had to travel. My partner and I were due to go to the Great Ocean Road on the Saturday but stayed home (in suburban Melbourne) because of the dire warning. 

The message was broadcast - now whether that go through to people living in rural communities who are not 'online' is another matter.  Also the reality is that 'home' for people living in the bush is in the line of fire.


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## kincella (16 February 2009)

another royal commission is a waste of money....it will find the same problems that have existed since 1939...since the black friday fires....nothing has changed except now we have another 70 years of timber on the ground waiting to burn, and a 1000 fold increase in population in the middle of it....
the other things are already known....
how can 60 people in charge of the fires, sitting in an office in Melb....and not know about fires on the ground....?????  A woman reported a fire was onto her property at 3.20 pm....other people waited 20 minutes to get through, to find out what to do....
any extra people to man the phones that day ????
and the phones cut out anyway.....what folly is this...
any fire spotters out there...or are they non existent now ???


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## Prospector (16 February 2009)

kincella said:


> any fire spotters out there...or are they non existent now ???




We have a tower in Mount Lofty which replaced the one that burnt down in a bushfire. Looks over all the hills 'front and back'. The spotters wont work in it because they say it sways!


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## sam76 (16 February 2009)

kincella said:


> any fire spotters out there...or are they non existent now ???




http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/nrenfoe.nsf/FID/-383CB7428C7883824A2568E8000C799B?OpenDocument


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## Prospector (16 February 2009)

So how come the 'war room' didnt know that Kingslake confused had been totally wiped out and lives lost for quite some time then?


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## kincella (16 February 2009)

warnings broadcast probably every hour on bbc/abc radio since 1.02.09 a full week...plus all the media, and internet coverage...for the 44 degree heat and high winds for the Sat 7th....
it would have been hard to escape the warnings...the only way would have been...never listen to the radio or read any news, or listen to weather reports.....we were all experiencing the heat day by day....and watching weather reports to see if they were changing....for a cool change etc...

and for the QLDers...or any other state...all are exposed and it can happen to you
an arsonists that was eventualy caught and then released...travelled from Albury on the nsw/vic border to Sydney...when he heard similar predictions one year...and to brisbane another year...this is what arsonists prefer....a hot day and very high winds...just perfect for mass damage...


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## kincella (16 February 2009)

sam, with all those DSE towers, how come they missed the fires...or no one in the tower, like the other poster said ?


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## daisy (16 February 2009)

Kincella,
 I had not comprehended the true sociopathic nature of arson until my dinner party conversation last night. Again, in my ignorance, I had not thought deeply about this and had kind of figured it was kids up to no good with no idea of the consequences of what they were doing. Bad enough, but now that it has been spelt out for me, absolutely horrifying.
So it seems like between the unacceptably high fuel load, the weather conditions and then a bunch of sociopaths having the perfect conditions to 'come out and play' these fires were inevitable. But with no way of knowing where exactly.
The tension in the week leading up to this must have been unbearable.


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## sam76 (16 February 2009)

kincella said:


> sam, with all those DSE towers, how come they missed the fires...or no one in the tower, like the other poster said ?





sorry?

you need to tell me why you think the spotters "missed" the fires.

I have gone to jobs that we couldn't see the column of smoke from the street that was spotted by a tower operator kilometres away.

I think people are forgetting that fires start anywhere.

Where was my warning?
Why didn't the tower operartor see something?

What happens if a fire starts on the edge of town?
You don't get a warning.

Complacency towards fire is going to become a big issue in this commission imho


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## brty (16 February 2009)

There is an appalling lack of understanding going on in this thread.

Much of the outer Melbourne (and some inner) suburbs were  in a lot of danger last Saturday because of the dry conditions in suburban gardens, low humidity and high winds.

TFB days (Total Fire Ban) always come with the warnings to implement fire plans or leave early. There are 4-10 of these each year. There is no gradation of TFB days. Over the last 25 years, on 99% of TFB days and for 99% of people, to evacuate/ implement fire plans when warned was a waste of time.

There are many examples/times when the warnings have gone out that "the conditions are as bad as Ash Wednesday" yet only a few small fires occurred.

Many people just thought it another example of the boy who cried 'wolf' with the warnings, sat inside their airconditioned houses, without bothering to look at what was happening around them outside, along with completely inadequate fire plans.

I live in a fire prone area. I have been a firefighter in the CFA for 20 years. I had sprinklers going around our house and wetting the garden from 11 o'clock in the morning. There was no sign of fire when I started. We did not have a fire here.

brty


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## Bushman (16 February 2009)

brty said:


> There is an appalling lack of understanding going on in this thread.
> 
> Much of the outer Melbourne (and some inner) suburbs were  in a lot of danger last Saturday because of the dry conditions in suburban gardens, low humidity and high winds.
> 
> ...




Thought provoking as always Mr Brty. 

Without a doubt much of north-eastern suburban Melbourne was under threat on Saturday. Built-up areas like Eltham, Warrandyte, Wonga Park, Whittlesea, Dandenong, Belgrave, Hurstbridge, Mount Waverley, Croydon, Ringwood etc are all within 20km of the front and are heavily-forrested suburban areas. Even where I live, in Fairfield, the push of late has been for native-gardens; also we have Studley Park within 1 km from our house and its is filled with tinder dry native vegetation. 

The scary thing is that if that incredible dry wind kept blowing for even another day then these suburbs, filled with thousands of homes, could well have been burnt out as well. No-one would have been prepared; we are city-slickers after all and detached from our natural environment. 

This fire burnt-out large tracts of Bendigo and Narre Warren after all. Scary stuff! Bring on the Royal Commission and lets make sure they don't pull any punches.


----------



## kincella (16 February 2009)

to the firefighters out there...article in sat paper, about how the experts in the melb office...were not aware of any fires until after 7,00pm or later that night....
in the meantime the firefighters were probably out there chasing fires...and people fighting for their lives...
my theme is why headquarters in the docklands, with all the specialists sitting inside..were unaware of this ?????
oh and tell me about those sitting inside in airconditioned comfort ???
I live in the city...I check every 15 mins or so...smell the air, look around

brother and daughter in albury...that arsonist was back again in 2005, I was visiting albury... waiting for the usual high wind new years day fires...and the fires were lit there without fail every year....and sure enough about 1.00pm he was at it again....

the family were in different houses inside in the air....no checks etc....I had to go and tell both of them, the fire was 1 klm away...smoke everywhere...
and fire plan...there is none...for them....they believed until now...a fire truck would turn up and warn them...or they would hear a siren.....

I lived up there, grew up there....could not get out fast enough...sick of the emergency plans every summer...with 5 horses, 3 dogs and a cat to keep close by for my emergency exit....horses were across the road, only one tree,,but huge wide open spaces for miles....the wind whipped through there faster...all my trees grew bent over from the wind....the plan was to lead the horses about 200 yards..down to a lane..that ran down to the river, the lane followed the river for about 3 klms...
had the horses yarded on those days, to catch them quickly...and the float ready...half the time you could not see 10 yards in front...the smoke was so thick...had no idea if there was a fire there or not...that went on for weeks at a time
been in melb for 20 years now...no horses any more...just the one dog...plan now to run down to the river 500 yards away...alexander avenue...and hang around the bike track that runs beside the river....
oh and memo to self...buy a woollen blanket


----------



## Prospector (16 February 2009)

kincella said:


> to the firefighters out there...article in sat paper, about how the experts in the melb office...were not aware of any fires until after 7,00pm or later that night....
> in the meantime the firefighters were probably out there chasing fires...and people fighting for their lives...
> my theme is why headquarters in the docklands, with all the specialists sitting inside..were unaware of this ?????




The lack of communication between the troops and 'war room' was really bad.  How can they be strategic when they don't know what is happening on location?  Why weren't the Troops communicating with head office.  They don't need to be on site, they can have airconditioned offices, but they DO NEED TO COMMUNICATE with each other!  Hopefully this is one thing the Royal Commission might flush out.


----------



## kincella (16 February 2009)

question for the fire fighters....I am near the yarra river, about 500 yards away.... about 5 klms from Melb central...what do you think of my plan to walk/ run to the river...there is  a bike track which follows the river...and bunker down there???? ps cannot swim well enough to jump into the river....and with small dog with me...


----------



## sam76 (16 February 2009)

kincella said:


> to the firefighters out there...article in sat paper, about how the experts in the melb office...were not aware of any fires until after 7,00pm or later that night....




i find this very, very difficult to believe.

can you post the article?


----------



## Calliope (16 February 2009)

kincella said:


> another royal commission is a waste of money....it will find the same problems that have existed since 1939...since the black friday fires....nothing has changed except now we have another 70 years of timber on the ground waiting to burn, and a 1000 fold increase in population in the middle of it....
> the other things are already known....




You are right of course. The outcomes are a given. I can only hope that the spotlight may be put on the aftermath of the fire and the relatively new phenomenon where politicians and others deliberately manipulate the highly charged emotions of people when they are most vulnerable.

These things have to be seen to be believed. I am a regular watcher of the "The Insiders". Anyone watching this show yesterday would have noticed, in the segment where Mr Rudd was trying to lay the blame on the Opposition for preventing assistance to the fire victims by opposing the stimulus package, that the head-nodders who are seated behind the front bench were nodding furiously in agreement.


----------



## Prospector (16 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> i find this very, very difficult to believe.
> 
> can you post the article?




It was in The Australian.  I read it too.  It seems head office (war room) knew of no significant fires or deaths until quite late Saturday. 

I referred to the same article in posts #405 and 412



Calliope said:


> Opposition for preventing assistance to the fire victims by opposing the stimulus package, that the head-nodders who are seated behind the front bench were nodding furiously in agreement.




Oh, the bloody head nodders.  Couldn't you just slap their grave (or smiling if appropriate) faces!
And since when was the stimulus package about the fire victims.  That is playing evil politics.


----------



## kincella (16 February 2009)

sam,it was on the front page of the australian...'life or lifestyle, warns fire chief', but the net copy available has nothing about it...or not much....the hard paper copy covers about 3 full pages...with snippets of what I said
here is the  net copy...useless...maybe get yourself the paper itself

it stated, the smoke etc stopped them from knowing what was going on..they could not get planes up in the air etc

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25051341-601,00.html


----------



## Prospector (16 February 2009)

I will see if I can scan the paper.  They published a time line of events; when Kingslake had burnt down (I think it was that place) the 'war room' didnt even know there was a fire there.

OK, too big to scan but this is a snapshot of relevant bits:

_4.30pm  The fire was bearing down on its most vulnerable victim, the mountain town of Kinglake......

By 5.30pm in the War room, no-one knew that Kinglake or Steels Creek had been lost and that at least  37 people lay dead in those townships....

Incredibly by 6pm no-one in the war room had yet received confirmation that lives had been lost......Rees (CFA CHIEF RUSSELL REES) says "I can remember thinking about 6o'clock that if we can get out of here without any lives lost then we will be very lucky indeed"....._


----------



## sam76 (16 February 2009)

Everytime A fire is reported it is logged into the system and sent up through the chain to controllers who make the big decisions.

I find it difficult to believe that at 7pm that night no one in the "war room" knew of any "significant fires"

The news were reporting "significant fires" at 5pm

The radio was reporting "significant fires" from lunch time onwards

Ballarat had a strike team on the way to the "significant fires" at Kinglake around 3pm.

All this information had to come from somewhere.....

I'm not doubting you read the article, but i am doubting those facts.


----------



## kincella (16 February 2009)

pretty certain I heard on radio or tv, or media...they did not go to flowerdale for 4 days,,,they did not think there had been a fire there....and similar with steels creek....anyone else see this ?


----------



## Prospector (16 February 2009)

Then Sam, something went very wrong, didnt it, if the Australian article is factual.  As they have directed quoted CFA Chief Rees at 6pm not knowing anyone had died, I think it is the former.


----------



## Calliope (16 February 2009)

daisy said:


> Kincella,
> I had not comprehended the true sociopathic nature of arson until my dinner party conversation last night. Again, in my ignorance, I had not thought deeply about this and had kind of figured it was kids up to no good with no idea of the consequences of what they were doing. Bad enough, but now that it has been spelt out for me, absolutely horrifying.




Antisocial misfits who commit mindless thrill seeking crimes like *vandalism. unprovoked assault, cruelty to animals, throwing rocks at cars from overpasses, shining laser beams at aircraft and lighting bushfires
* feel no sense of guilt.

These psychopaths are however fully aware that when they come before the courts there are many, apparently well meaning people, prepared to come forward to plead mitigating circumstances and blaming the causes for their aberrations on circumstance outside their control.

"Enlightened" magistrates and judges give more weight to the arguments of the do-gooders than to those of the police or the victims. Hence soft sentences.


----------



## Julia (16 February 2009)

kincella said:


> pretty certain I heard on radio or tv, or media...they did not go to flowerdale for 4 days,,,they did not think there had been a fire there....and similar with steels creek....anyone else see this ?



It's correct.  ABC Radio interviewed a Flowerdale resident several days after the fire and that person said they had been left to completely fend for themselves.


----------



## daisy (16 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Antisocial misfits who commit mindless thrill seeking crimes like *vandalism. unprovoked assault, cruelty to animals, throwing rocks at cars from overpasses, shining laser beams at aircraft and lighting bushfires
> * feel no sense of guilt.
> 
> These psychopaths are however fully aware that when they come before the courts there are many, apparently well meaning people, prepared to come forward to plead mitigating circumstances and blaming the causes for their aberrations on circumstance outside their control.
> ...




Yes. I've put it together now. And I realise that one of the reasons I had underestimated the arsonist side of this issue was that there have been a few radio programmes recently suggesting that arsonists should be charged with murder. Which is why I figured it was kids who didn't understand what they were doing. Even then though I thought they should be charged with murder. Now that I've been enlightened I don't see why there should be even any question about this.


----------



## sam76 (16 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> Then Sam, something went very wrong, didnt it, if the Australian article is factual.  As they have directed quoted CFA Chief Rees at 6pm not knowing anyone had died, I think it is the former.




That's not my argument.

but still, at 6pm they are still trying to contain fires not count bodies.

Just imagine how much information is still trying to be processed at a ground level during those hours.

Thousands of firefighters being rallied from all over the state, trucks being pulled from all over the state (without leaving other areas exposed), control points being set up communications,  food, water, supplies and accomodation for all these people plus all the other equipment being organised.

All within a couple of hours from the outbreak.  

Victoria's worst disaster ever and people are whinging that the Chief Officer doesn't know of any confirmed deaths by 6pm?

Serioulsy, i'm getting a bit fed up with all the armchair critics. 

Nothing on a scale as large as this is ever going to work 100%

I think the emergency services have done a great job in getting things as organised as quickly as they did.

As I have always said, The CFA has it's own investigation after every campaign fire to better themselves for the next.

Remember we are batttling mother nature here.

A lot of these deaths will come out as people fleeing in the face of the fire in their cars or defending undefendable houses.

Both of which have been the cfa's messgae for many, many years of what not to do!


Rant over.


----------



## sam76 (16 February 2009)

Julia said:


> It's correct.  ABC Radio interviewed a Flowerdale resident several days after the fire and that person said they had been left to completely fend for themselves.





Julia, (not having a go at you) each community has one truck to defend them, if they are lucky, two.

There are only approx 1200 tankers in the state

these trucks can't sit around waiting to defend in a big fire.

All resources need to be sent to the front line to extinguish the fire before it spreads.

That is why people need to learn to defend themselves.


----------



## Happy (16 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Antisocial misfits who commit mindless thrill seeking crimes like *vandalism. unprovoked assault, cruelty to animals, throwing rocks at cars from overpasses, shining laser beams at aircraft and lighting bushfires
> * feel no sense of guilt.
> ..





We cull certain animals, we destroy undesirable plants and yet we seem to be bent on hanging on to every unhuman human life.


Just prey, majority will wake up one day and vote for change.


----------



## kincella (16 February 2009)

sam...I feel sorry for the fire fighters...risking their lives, 

now did you see my post about everyone into a common cleared area, with firefighters and people and a giant sprinkler just there to save lives....forget about the houses.....think I posted it Sat ???

and answer to  my fire plan...posted this morning  ???


----------



## daisy (16 February 2009)

Happy said:


> We cull certain animals, we destroy undesirable plants and yet we seem to be bent on hanging on to every unhuman human life.
> 
> 
> Just prey, majority will wake up one day and vote for change.




We've never been asked to vote for this kind of change. I think the pollies are too afraid to ask us. Sentencing laws are ridiculous and I think that if you asked the ordinary person they would want at the most moderate a sentence that meant that some _unhuman humans_ were locked up and the key thrown away.
(but think how many more prisons would need to be built)


----------



## sam76 (16 February 2009)

kincella said:


> and answer to  my fire plan...posted this morning  ???





just like i can't give you financial advice nor can i give you individual fire advice.

As you live within the urban boundries, I suggest you consult with the mfb website for more info.

http://www.mfb.vic.gov.au/


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## kincella (16 February 2009)

watch this video...his sunglasses were melting....about 5 minutes...he then retreated to his bunker and lived...titled terrifying sound of fire

http://media.theage.com.au/?category=Breaking News&rid=46144


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## Happy (16 February 2009)

daisy said:


> ..
> Sentencing laws are ridiculous and I think that if you asked the ordinary person they would want at the most moderate a sentence that meant that some _unhuman humans_ were locked up and the key thrown away.
> (but think how many more prisons would need to be built)




Why not: keep the key, vote to get rid of scum and instead of jails build fire shelters.
< More bang for bucks, and reduced CO2 emission >





> From ABC, 16 Feb. 09
> ACCUSED ARSONIST 'AT RISK IN CUSTODY'
> 
> A Melbourne court has heard the man accused of lighting the deadly Churchill-Jerralang fires in Gippsland may be at risk in protective custody.
> ...




Oh my dear, he is at risk.


----------



## MrBurns (16 February 2009)

daisy said:


> We've never been asked to vote for this kind of change. I think the pollies are too afraid to ask us. Sentencing laws are ridiculous and I think that if you asked the ordinary person they would want at the most moderate a sentence that meant that some _unhuman humans_ were locked up and the key thrown away.
> (but think how many more prisons would need to be built)




The max sentence for this person will be 25 years if he's found guilty, that's guilty of starting a fire that killed 100 people, what do you have to do to get life in this country ?

So after 25 years they let him out ? *LET HIM OUT ?*

The law has no correlation to justice.


----------



## kincella (16 February 2009)

apparently he lit a fire in his backyard at least once a month.......no bells ringing for anyone....no fire brigade out there...no police.....no nothing ????
he is 39....not a teenager anymore....wonder how many other fires he lit...and got away with...
the one in albury...lit fires since he was about 10....did not catch him until about 25-30...never locked him up...back again lighting fires same place in 2005...have not kept up with the past 3 years....he makes sure he does it on the very high wind days


----------



## Happy (16 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> The max sentence for this person will be 25 years if he's found guilty, that's guilty of starting a fire that killed 100 people, what do you have to do to get life in this country ?
> 
> So after 25 years they let him out ? *LET HIM OUT ?*
> 
> The law has no correlation to justice.





Problem is that arsonist will not get up to 25 years for every life lost in fire as in some jurisdictions.

25 years for 10 or 30 lives makes life soo cheap, yet for some reason we consider mass murderer’s life so much more precious.


----------



## Prospector (16 February 2009)

Hey Sam, sorry not meaning to pick the firefighters at this horrid time.  To be honest, if I choose to live in a place that is a bush fire risk I would hate to think that the CFA would risk their lives to save it in a bushfire.  If I could not save my property I would not expect anyone else to try to do so either.  Obviously they will learn more from what happened. 

But then, I wouldn't live in an area that was so knowingly risky either.


----------



## daisy (16 February 2009)

Mr Burns,
I don't know. This is one of my soap box subjects. But don't ask Terry O'Gorman.


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## MrBurns (16 February 2009)

daisy said:


> Mr Burns,
> I don't know. This is one of my soap box subjects. But don't ask Terry O'Gorman.




I think the way crime and punishment is viewed is all wrong.

If you steal money , punishment.

If you are an arsonist, child molester, rapist and a few other things you're not just a naughty boy you're sick so you should stay in jail for the rest of your life or until someone can guarantee you will not re offend, no scrap the last one just leave them in jail.

Who for one minute doesn't think this bloke will light fires when he gets out ?

Stupid the think otherwise.


----------



## sam76 (16 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> Hey Sam, sorry not meaning to pick the firefighters at this horrid time.  To be honest, if I choose to live in a place that is a bush fire risk I would hate to think that the CFA would risk their lives to save it in a bushfire.  If I could not save my property I would not expect anyone else to try to do so either.  Obviously they will learn more from what happened.
> 
> But then, I wouldn't live in an area that was so knowingly risky either.






Thanks. 

IMHO It's just too early to be blaming people for this mess.

But I fear the most reponsible entity at the end of all this will be the victims themselves.

(and I comend you for thinking of the risks before making a lifestyle decision)


----------



## Calliope (16 February 2009)

daisy said:


> Mr Burns,
> I don't know. This is one of my soap box subjects. But don't ask Terry O'Gorman.




Ah! Terry O'Gorman the great Civil Libertarian. But wait. Dare I suggest that as a criminal lawyer, well versed in the use of due process in getting acquittals for villains, he may be a little biased.


----------



## daisy (16 February 2009)

At the risk of sounding uncivilised there are times when I have said "I get the exterminators in for cockroaches and what's the difference?"
This whole issue frustrates me.


----------



## MrBurns (16 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Ah! Terry O'Gorman the great Civil Libertarian. But wait. Dare I suggest that as a criminal lawyer, well versed in the use of due process in getting acquittals for villains, he may be a little biased.




Such lawyers are so close the the criminal world that they are part of it.


----------



## Calliope (16 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> IMHO It's just too early to be blaming people for this mess.




And it is an odds on bet that the Royal Commission will not be recommending that any charges of criminal negligence be laid. 

Especially if it transpires that the State and Local Authorities are the main offenders.


----------



## MrBurns (16 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> And it is an odds on bet that the Royal Commission will not be recommending that any charges of criminal negligence be laid.
> 
> Especially if it transpires that the State and Local Authorities are the main offenders.




That will be the most carefully worded document since the 10 commandments.

Wont be finished till the end of next year so that gives them plenty of time to massage the result.


----------



## kincella (16 February 2009)

prospector...me too....
and luckily for me...grew up on a farm....had enough of the bush to last me a lifetime....sick to death of trees and hills....give me the city and the seaside any day... plus I feel safer in the city.....
a neighbour has a giant gum...everyday we have winds above 20kph...twigs and branches fall down...and if it came down it would endanger most homes around....think its over 100' high or more 

however I know a few who are the opposite...they expect the firies to roll up and not only sound the sirens....but actually turn up to the house...
see it on tv almost daily....they said they were not warned...they said the expected to see the fire engine......well thats too late anyway....
but wait till they find out only 1200 trucks across Vic....and only one truck in town....
except in this last fire...the trucks were at another town...not their own....trying to battle..and losing their own homes....
was it kinglake or marysville....a fireman arrived back in town and rescued some people from  safeway....sounded like a lone fireman...not a truck full ???

anyway, if the electricity it out ..there goes the telephone too....so the idea of listening to the abc for fire reports...only works if you have a battery radio


----------



## Prospector (16 February 2009)

kincella said:


> anyway, if the electricity it out ..there goes the telephone too....so the idea of listening to the abc for fire reports...only works if you have a battery radio



Apparently not many people have them these days!  We have too many blackouts in SA not to have one. 

Back to the Commission; if this is to decide how buildings should be built in fire risk areas, I wonder if that means houses cannot be rebuilt until they have published their findings?

Cheers to you Sam, the CFA are just trying to do their best, dont get paid, and risk their lives.  It is amazing to think that people will do this willingly. 

I dont understand the way the Courts deal with people who light fires.  We have several in Adelaide; if they are known to light fires then why are they free to roam?


----------



## saiter (16 February 2009)

How do they even know if someone lit the fire or not?
Is there some sort of hardcore evidence being presented? i.e. him/her being filmed lighting the fire.


----------



## Prospector (16 February 2009)

Saiter, when they caught a serial arsonist in SA who had lit many many fires, the fires were all lit in a particular way.  It was quite unsual but dont want to spell it out on the internet.  Kind of like the tag of the graffiti artist.  Eventually, she  a mother and wife   made a mistake.


----------



## kincella (16 February 2009)

evidence yes....inflammant is proof...then a sighting...like with all the cameras on mobile phones today its too easy...photo of a biker, with can attached was out there on sunday or monday.... looked like a trail bike...not a harley davidson...
also a black ford rodeo, also suspicious.....and the red liught cameras pick up so much more...
photo of a biker...in the list of readers photos...riding past all the crashed cars...you could get his rego number easy
one arsonist...used to wear a big coat...and carried 30 ciggy lighters in the pockets...and carried a can.....hello...warning bells


----------



## saiter (16 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> Saiter, when they caught a serial arsonist in SA who had lit many many fires, *the fires were all lit in a particular way*.  Kind of like the tag of the graffiti artist.  Eventually, she  a mother and wife   made a mistake.




As in the tool used to start them or where they were lit?


----------



## daisy (16 February 2009)

On another note, and something that I’ve wanted to say for some time, I am full of respect and admiration for the members of the CFA, most of whom I understand are volunteers and have given their all in this. 
I don’t understand the issues raised about the confusion between the control office and the actual people fighting at the front. I guess if there were problems, they were new ones in relation to this situation and will be addressed for future reference. What I do know is that scores of volunteer fire fighters have put themselves on the line and their personal needs second to do the absolute best they could in what was obviously a terrifying situation.


----------



## Prospector (16 February 2009)

saiter said:


> As in the tool used to start them or where they were lit?




Both - all of the fires occurred in a country town in SA - when flying from Melbourne to Adelaide you would see smoke in this one spot, the earth is really blackened there, and sure enough, she would have lit another one.  And the way she lit them. Have just searched and saw she lit 47 fires!


----------



## kincella (16 February 2009)

recently..past 3 months...ch 7 did a special about an arsonist...think he was an adelaide man around 30....after he was caught...got a good behaviour bond...ch 7 followed him around...yes he was still lighting fires but denied it...but they had the cameras on him and the proof....he is not locked away yet...and he was about to light another fire....he had been lighting fires for about 20 years
on tv ca tonight...?? which one...story about  a convicted arsonist,,,
currently working for one of the cfa's....hello...how about a police check for volunteers...
another thing I heard.,,they reckon if the police visit each arsonist on a big fire day...that should deter them....
hahahahahaha sorry who are these idiots that come up with these ideas....
and after the police have left ????
what if the arsonist is already out on the job ......


----------



## sam76 (16 February 2009)

kincella said:


> currently working for one of the cfa's....hello...how about a police check for volunteers...
> QUOTE]
> 
> Kincella,
> ...


----------



## kincella (16 February 2009)

sam...I mentioned the current affair...and the shorts tell that story...so lets wait and see what they come up with...
the only explanation...if he is a convicted arsonist...how can he be a volunteer...if there was a police check done ???

innuendo and rumours...not...
most information can be traced..doing a google
even you sound unsure if police checks are done on volunteers....the word
'assume' ...do new entrants and transfers include volunteers ??? or just the permanent workforce


----------



## sam76 (16 February 2009)

Kincella, My area of knowledge is the CFA not the other fire services. 


read my previous post or spend some time on the cfa website.

either way, this is getting tiring....

i'm off for a bit.


----------



## MrBurns (16 February 2009)

I think I like this bloke - from www.crikey.com.au



> Privatised power won't pay for its part in the fires
> Jeff Sparrow, editor of Overland writes:
> 
> Arsonists, says Kevin Rudd, should rot in prison. But who will be punished if the pending law suits find private power companies liable for the fires in Kilmore East, Horsham, Mudgegonga and Dederang?
> ...


----------



## bunyip (16 February 2009)

Written by 
Mike Claridge   of Ararat Victoria.

Where green and gold once cloaked the land 
Where eucalypt and pine did stand 
Where man did live and lay his hand 
Now black is all I see 

Where horses grazed and cattle drank 
Where grasses lined the river bank 
Where stood a house and water tank 
Now black is all I see 

There was a town with store and hall 
Which proudly stood ‘neath ridges tall 
Now nothing moves or lives at all 
And black is all I see 

There stood a home and there another 
Where lived a daughter, father , mother 
A sister, cousin, niece or brother 
Now black is all I see 

Our nation grieves and holds them tight 
Throughout the darkness of the night 
Till daybreak brings an ashy light 
And black is all I see 

“Poor fella, my country”


----------



## Calliope (16 February 2009)

A taxpayer, in letters to the editor, in The Australian is critical of a suggestion that the taxpayers should bail out the uninsured householders who lost their homes in the bushfires. I think the number of these is about a quarter of the total.

But hasn't this decision already been made by Mr Rudd. I am sure I heard him pledge to rebuild *all *the homes. Those more responsible people who insure their home and contents (and their vehicles) may think this unfair. But it has always been Mr Rudd's policy to look after the improvident.

And I think the precedent has already been set. I am fairly sure that after the Canberra fires in 2003 the uninsured were reimbursed by the taxpayer.

In the 1974 floods in Brisbane nobody in the area where I lived ever dreamed they would need additional flood insurance coverage for a very rare event. We were lucky as we had a War Service home which was automatically covered. It was stiff cheddar for those without flood coverage.


----------



## daisy (16 February 2009)

So the message now is don't waste your money insuring your house we will bail you out anyway. I'm keeping this in mind, as every year I up my insurance in order to rebuild if a cyclone gets me. Maybe I won't do that anymore and use the premium for a trip to NZ instead.


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## MrBurns (16 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> A taxpayer, in letters to the editor, in The Australian is critical of a suggestion that the taxpayers should bail out the uninsured householders who lost their homes in the bushfires. I think the number of these is about a quarter of the total.
> 
> But hasn't this decision already been made by Mr Rudd. I am sure I heard him pledge to rebuild *all *the homes. Those more responsible people who insure their home and contents (and their vehicles) may think this unfair. But it has always been Mr Rudd's policy to look after the improvident.
> 
> ...




The donations would have covered that without the Govt spending a cent.

The uninsured may only be covered in extreme situations like this, if their house just burns down in isolation they'd be on their own.

Lucky for them there's a Labor Govt in, I reckon pretty soon non of us will have to work at all, just collect our wages from a crisis package of some sort.


----------



## Julia (16 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> Julia, (not having a go at you) each community has one truck to defend them, if they are lucky, two.
> 
> There are only approx 1200 tankers in the state
> 
> ...



Understood completely, Sam.  I was just confirming what had been asked, not making any judgements.


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## daisy (16 February 2009)

daisy said:


> So the message now is don't waste your money insuring your house we will bail you out anyway. I'm keeping this in mind, as every year I up my insurance in order to rebuild if a cyclone gets me. Maybe I won't do that anymore and use the premium for a trip to NZ instead.




Just joking. 
Maybe this kind of bail out is because gov't aknowledges that these kind of losses could have been averted if they had been more pro-active in taking preventative measures. e.g. We'll give you a house if you don't sue us for not following the advice of all those royal commissions?


----------



## Julia (16 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> To be honest, if I choose to live in a place that is a bush fire risk I would hate to think that the CFA would risk their lives to save it in a bushfire.  If I could not save my property I would not expect anyone else to try to do so either.  Obviously they will learn more from what happened.
> 
> But then, I wouldn't live in an area that was so knowingly risky either.



Agree in spades on both counts.   The determination expressed by so many people who have lost their homes to rebuild in the same place is something I don't comprehend.


----------



## Calliope (16 February 2009)

Bob Brown has lashed out at critics of his forest management policies. With his usual slippery sleight of hand he has tried to turn the criticism back on his critics claiming they are are being nasty to the victims and surviviors by blaming them for living there, etc.

This is a very cynical guy. I think Brown and other greens have a gene which causes a mental block which prevents them from being able to admit they are wrong.

Meanwhile; in SMH


> February 16, 2009 - 10:59AM
> The forestry industry has blamed "uninformed" green policies for Victoria's devastating bushfires, saying too much forest is locked up in reserves.
> 
> National Association of Forest Industries (NAFI) chief executive Allan Hansard has called for a national plan to actively manage forests.
> ...


----------



## Bushman (16 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Meanwhile; in SMH




You are quoting the Forest Industry - lol; no vested interests to 'bash a greenie' there.


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## MrBurns (16 February 2009)

Bushman said:


> You are quoting the Forest Industry - lol; no vested interests to 'bash a greenie' there.





Good they'll have plenty of helpers too............


----------



## Julia (16 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> I think Brown and other greens have a gene which causes a mental block which prevents them from being able to admit they are wrong.



Doesn't that same gene exist in all politicians?  (maybe except Wilson Tuckey)


----------



## Bushman (16 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Good they'll have plenty of helpers too............




Ah the *wisdom* of crowds. 

PS: I have changed my mind about Kruddy doing a bit of grandstanding on the side after seeing this photo - 





Seems he did learn a thing or two from l'il Johnny after all.


----------



## sam76 (16 February 2009)

I see on the news tonight that there was another allegedly deliberately lit fire in the Dandenongs last night.

And what do I see?

People standing under overhanging trees on their filthy litter-covered roofs spraying a garden hose wearing nothing but summer gear.

Do people not learn????

Especially in such high bushfire risk areas such as the Dandenongs.


----------



## Prospector (16 February 2009)

Not sure what is happening interstate, but there is an increasing level of 'growl' in the media that the people in the bushfire are getting tax relief, mortgage relief, bank relief whilst others who suffer an 'individual' crisis (cancer, housefire, accident etc etc) are ignored.  And those who are uninsured will get their house back.  Listening to the radio, one of the commentators was someone who had put in a major effort at getting several pantecs off interstate with donated goods last week - yet even she is getting antsy about the inequity.

And I suspect, Rudd's ever increasing media photo opps are getting on everyones nerve too.  Who is running the country at the moment?



sam76 said:


> People standing under overhanging trees on their filthy litter-covered roofs spraying a garden hose wearing nothing but summer gear.  Do people not learn????  Especially in such high bushfire risk areas such as the Dandenongs.




No they dont Sam.  To be honest, they never will until a tougher stand is taken by our Government, the CFA, the Councils.  They will never get the message that the onus is on them to prepare for fire, because there is usually always someone to their rescue.  It sends a mixed message.  If people want to live in fire prone areas, then it is at their risk, including their responsibility to fully protect and insure their home.  The CFA should not be required to protect our homes if we cant be bothered to do that. But no, Rudd has now labelled them 'Aussie battlers' - ????? and so the benevolent Government will once again come to their aid.

Treat people as adults for once, and stop being the parent to the silly little child.

And oh yeah, if something is going to go wrong, make sure the 'going wrong' happens to as many other people as possible.


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## Calliope (16 February 2009)

Prospector,

Have you noticed over the last few days we have all been able post our, often conflicting, views on this highly emotive subject without anyone  losing their cool or making personal attacks on other posters. I think it reflects the maturity of the  posters. 

Not long back I had to be very careful to vet very word for fear that it could be misconstrued as callous disregard for the suffering of the victims. We have come a long way in a few days.


----------



## kincella (16 February 2009)

channel 10 news on now in vic...a bloke built a bunker in last 3 days...at the entrance is a huge tree...if the tree came down they would all be crushed underneath...its made of timber inside with reinforced steel....and covered in dirt...walls appear to be made of tin on the inside....there is no deflection material for the radiant heat.... an entrance leads into a square room at the end....god help them
I hope somebody brings that to his attention.....especially the tree, couple of feet away from the entrance....
growls...grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr......


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## MrBurns (16 February 2009)

A comprehensive guide on what to do and what not to do in summer should be delivered annually to each home in the bush.

Everyone has an opinion and most of it is wrong in one way or another.


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## sam76 (16 February 2009)

i believe something like this already happens through local brigades (depending on the area), Mr. Burns.

http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/publications/homesafety.htm

cheers,


----------



## kincella (16 February 2009)

calliope...good points from you...and agree


----------



## sam76 (16 February 2009)

kincella said:


> however the reality of fires coming at his house on 3 different fronts, and the ball of fire coming at him out of the sky...was very different to the instructions...
> other survivors have mentioned the fire not only came at them at the front door, the sides of the house and the back door ,,,all at the same time....





This is called ember attack, Kincella.


----------



## MrBurns (16 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> i believe something like this already happens through local brigades (depending on the area), Mr. Burns.
> 
> http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/publications/homesafety.htm
> 
> cheers,




I guess it is but tips on building a bunker and so on, comprehensive guide otherwise people will do their own thing and cook when they have to use it, there must be dozens of do's and dont's, put it in an attractive RED hard cover and deliver it to every household to be kept in the house near the phone as a manual.

With an opening line, '"If you're reading this and can smell smoke put it down and get out ......fast."


----------



## sam76 (16 February 2009)

I agree with your theory, but the science of bunkers etc.. hasn't been proven.

Everyone has different personal situations and we all live in different environments.

10 kms down the road from a bunker approved area could be completely unsuited to bunkers etc... (for example)

The book would be a 1000 pages long and would no doubt end up as an expensive coaster...

I'm still a stickler of the simple fire triangle (remove one element and you take away the fire)

Fuel is the easiest element to remove from this triangle.

Bigger clearings around houses (enforced on a yearly basis, perhaps by the local brigades as a form of fundraising) and proper firefighting equipment to all those that rebuild is the broadest, most effective soulution IMHO

Adding to that - compulsory community meetings/training at the start of the season to reenfore the message etc... would be a great idea as well.

Again, it would be difficult to police and enforce attendance.

but it's a start.


----------



## MrBurns (16 February 2009)

sam76 said:


> I agree with your theory, but the science of bunkers etc.. hasn't been proven.
> 
> Everyone has different personal situations and we all live in different environments.
> 
> ...




People I know have someone next door who has a bunker with oxygen tanks in, he's no fool and knows the risks but that would work. Most people would blow themselves up I guess.

Keep it simple, clearing around houses to a height and distance to be determined and enforced by council regulations, the opposite of what some are doing now and community areas football field sized areas with a large secure building maintained by council via rates levy. This could be used for other things in the meantime but would be there for the years ahead when these circumstances are repeated.

Nothing is perfect but *this will happen again, there's nothing surer* and the time to think of solutions is now.


----------



## Prospector (16 February 2009)

Yes Calliope, I suspect the rawness of what has happened is beginning to wear off, and the question of how we could have let it happen is beginning to set in. And we can deal with that honestly without people taking offence. And how well or otherwise the nation has reacted, the motivations can be scrutinised without being considered as being offensive or showing a political bias.  And the reality of how poorly or otherwise Councils, and experts have handled land development.  How we react to gross disaster but deal poorly with individual experiences.

And of course, we are all very mature here, aren't we! Now, about Bris Connections, can we get any level of agreement on that one? 

It will happen again, it will happen in Adelaide and our hills are so close to the CBD.  If we get the ember fire, well, even our house could be at risk and I live 6k's from the GPO!


----------



## Julia (16 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> A taxpayer, in letters to the editor, in The Australian is critical of a suggestion that the taxpayers should bail out the uninsured householders who lost their homes in the bushfires. I think the number of these is about a quarter of the total.
> 
> But hasn't this decision already been made by Mr Rudd. I am sure I heard him pledge to rebuild *all *the homes. Those more responsible people who insure their home and contents (and their vehicles) may think this unfair. But it has always been Mr Rudd's policy to look after the improvident.
> 
> And I think the precedent has already been set. I am fairly sure that after the Canberra fires in 2003 the uninsured were reimbursed by the taxpayer.







daisy said:


> So the message now is don't waste your money insuring your house we will bail you out anyway. I'm keeping this in mind, as every year I up my insurance in order to rebuild if a cyclone gets me. Maybe I won't do that anymore and use the premium for a trip to NZ instead.



There was a segment on the 7.30 Report this evening about the insurance situation.  The above quote of 1 household in 4 being uninsured is apparently correct.  The other interesting fact offered by, I think, the insurance council is that out of every dollar of insurance premiums about 40 cents is a levy to the CFA.   So householders taking responsibility of insuring their properties are also "buying the services" of the CFA if required.

This seems to be a double insult to the whole insurance system when people who don't insure still expect the big red fire engine with all the hardworking firies to come and save them, even though they have failed to participate in funding the system.

This frankly really stinks.  And then for Rudd to promise to spend our tax dollars to rebuild their houses in the same hazardous area beggars belief.
How about letting them accept the consequences of their inaction for a change.

I'd also like toknow just how the donated funds will be dispersed.  Googling bush fire appeals shows 14 different appeals.  Does anyone know the total of funds contributed to date?

Only a couple of months ago a cyclonic storm wreaked devastation on parts of Brisbane.   Many houses were completely destroyed and many more substantially damaged.  I don't remember hearing about any appeals for these people, neither do I remember Mr Rudd promising to rebuild these houses.

How about FNQ with the floods?  Has Mr Rudd promised to repair all your houses up there with the flood damage?





Prospector said:


> Not sure what is happening interstate, but there is an increasing level of 'growl' in the media that the people in the bushfire are getting tax relief, mortgage relief, bank relief whilst others who suffer an 'individual' crisis (cancer, housefire, accident etc etc) are ignored.  And those who are uninsured will get their house back.  Listening to the radio, one of the commentators was someone who had put in a major effort at getting several pantecs off interstate with donated goods last week - yet even she is getting antsy about the inequity.



Good to know there is some awareness of the inequity starting to surface.

It would have been a much wiser Prime Minister who would have held off on the emotional stuff at the start and said that we will evaluate the situation when more is known.   It looks as though the donations will rebuild many of the houses (has anyone done the calculations on this?) and thus his extravagant declarations are now seen to be overkill.
But hey, who cares!  He has been seen to be the good guy, overwhelmed with compassion and sadness, pledging every last dollar to fix everything once again.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Bob Brown has lashed out at critics of his forest management policies. With his usual slippery sleight of hand he has tried to turn the criticism back on his critics claiming they are are being nasty to the victims and surviviors by blaming them for living there, etc.
> 
> This is a very cynical guy. I think Brown and other greens have a gene which causes a mental block which prevents them from being able to admit they are wrong.



Wrong, wrong and wrong again.

Wrong about a supposed power "surplus" - now we struggle to keep the lights on.

Wrong that burning wood in towns and cities all winter for heat was going to help the environment. Anyone who likes clean air might disagree there.

Wrong that it makes sense to export woodchips and import pulp. Now the once great mills seem set to close completely, throwing many out of work.

Wrong that there's plenty of oil.

*Wrong that there's nothing wrong with burning coal* (yep, that's what was claimed in the 1990's, well after the general public became aware of climate change).

Wrong that a service economy which produces no real wealth is sustainable.

Wrong that we shouldn't keep fuel loads down in the bush.

Right? Well he did point out on many occasions that burning oil was cheaper than building renewable energy sources so I'll give credit where it's due. Right at the time it was, although it's no longer the case. And I'm not sure how burning oil fits with being an environmentalist, but anyway.

And I'll give some credit for some of the social policies, trying to stop hatred and so on. Top marks for that one the rest doesn't look so good. 

Much the same could be said about Labor and Liberal though so I'm not saying the Greens are necessarily any worse. But they weren't "proven right" as they claim, at least not on the major issues they've been associated with that I've mentioned above.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> It will happen again, it will happen in Adelaide and our hills are so close to the CBD.  If we get the ember fire, well, even our house could be at risk and I live 6k's from the GPO!



Fly over Adelaide and it's clearly obvious that it's a city surrounded by trees. 

First time I went there, I wondered why the plane was flying so low because all I could see was trees and a few houses. It turns out I needed to be sitting on the other side to see the city, but I think the point is pretty clear. No shortage of vegetation around Adelaide.

And it's the same with any smaller town anywhere near the bush. In practice, the bush is up to the edge of the town / city when you stand back and look from a distance. All are disasters waiting to happen, and someday they will.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 February 2009)

brty said:


> There is an appalling lack of understanding going on in this thread.
> 
> Much of the outer Melbourne (and some inner) suburbs were  in a lot of danger last Saturday because of the dry conditions in suburban gardens, low humidity and high winds.
> 
> ...



Exactly the point I've been trying to make. You said it better than me though... 

It's naive to think that a large number of people in the outer parts of the major cities aren't at risk. There was certainly a risk on that day across just about the whole of Vic apart from central parts of Melbourne (as distinct from some of the suburbs). 

I'm not going to continue on this point, I think it's getting a bit personal, but if there was going to be a meaningful evacuation then it would have involved basically the entire state in terms of geographic area, some suburbs of Melbourne included. 

Add in evacuations in parts of SA and NSW, plus the reality that the risk would have extended to all of Tas if we'd had a strong northerly wind bringing the heat down, and it's a rather massive task to be evacuating everyone at risk. Well over a million people in total.

Maybe evacuation is the answer. I don't really know to be honest. But I'm just pointing out that to pursue that policy does involve a massive logistical exercise that's going to be repeated several times each Summer. Maybe we ought to do that, but I just can't see it actually happening.

On the other hand, if we leave it to evacuation only under "exceptional circumstances" then how do we make that decision? I'm sure most people were expecting some fires on that day, but not on the scale of what actually happened. How do we reliably predict that we'd have a major inferno that day? More importantly, how could we say on earlier days with similar conditions that there would not be a fire? I just don't think we can predict it that accurately and we'd end up with a lot of evacuations "to be safe" - which leads to the boy who cried wolf scenario.


----------



## Prospector (17 February 2009)

Not so sure it would have been a matter of 'cry wolf' on Saturday Smurf.  As mentioned, we were given the most dire forecast in Adelaide.  And the day was truly evil.  Everyone knew that with the slightest fire there would have been no chance of stopping it.  So when the day passed with no fire, there has not been 1 murmur that the BOM or CFS (in SA) overreacted at all, just a massive sigh of relief.  Then we heard about Victoria and we knew it was going to be bad.  But I guess if everyone had been ordered from their homes (probably by 6am Saturday morning would have worked) then maybe a different story.

Dont we need to build into the people who CHOOSE to live amongst the timber - If you live there, we will not be able to protect your home.  If you stay and fight, we will not be able to protect your life.  Why the hell should the CFS put their lives at risk for someone else's stupidity, life choices and laziness. Might actually make some of these people think about it first.

BUT BUT BUT - in SA our Government collects an Emergency Services Levy from every householder - compulsory.  Separate from Insurance.  This is for firefighting.  So these people will rightly argue that they are paying for protection!


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## Calliope (17 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> And of course, we are all very mature here, aren't we! Now, about Bris Connections, can we get any level of agreement on that one?




Yes we can. And your statement "and we can deal honestly without people taking offence" sums it up


----------



## Calliope (17 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> Wrong, wrong and wrong again.




Sorry to have upset you. I know it is a heresy to suggest a Greenie could ever get it wrong. But I also thought that the State and Local Authorities who pander to the Greens must assume the greater blame. After all I assumed they knew better. I thought they would be well aware of the recommendations of the previous fire enquiries.

However as a remote observer of this tragedy my opinions obviously can't carry the same weight as a Tasmanian with more fire and wilderness experience. 

So maybe I am wrong.


----------



## kincella (17 February 2009)

I note the police are concerned about the information widely available on facebook about the latest arsonist, with concerns for him and his family.

On a CA ch 7 last night, that arsonist was now working with the RFS rural fire service at Woolgoola NSW...last offence committed over 15 years ago...he had served 6 years jail. The RFS would not comment, but ch7 said they would leave it up to the locals to work it out. Arson detective suggested the arsonists are never cured, and receive no counselling in jail.

See todays news a 31 yr old pregnant woman sentenced to jail...she had 7 children but non were in her care now.

Australia presently showing how immense  'of drought and flooding rains' it can produce at the same time.

The silence on the floods in FNQ is deafening, when compared to the satuation the Vic fires received, and attention from all and sundry, including the PM.
Message to PM...Hello.....Qld is part of Australia
fnq needs to be declared a disaster zone....they need help now.....

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25066080-421,00.html


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## daisy (17 February 2009)

kincella said:


> Australia presently showing how immense  'of drought and flooding rains' it can produce at the same time.
> 
> The silence on the floods in FNQ is deafening, when compared to the satuation the Vic fires received, and attention from all and sundry, including the PM.
> Message to PM...Hello.....Qld is part of Australia
> ...




I've been thinking the same thing. The attention given to the fires is such that many people in flooded regions are donating their relief money to the bushfire appeal and even having fund raisers, not for their own communities, but once again for bush fire appeals. 
The cynic in me is starting to think there's a huge amount of political manipulation in this.


----------



## kincella (17 February 2009)

daisy...I think its more the loss of life here in Vic that has driven this frenzy about the fires....but since I am more of an animal person...I would think the animals are faring just as badly in Qld....
its like the Dianna thing...and others, the young ones focus on...its unreal

article  today saying no one is overseeing all this money, and the duplication of services between towns....
over 100 million in donations for the fire victims..... has there been any money donated to the flood victims....???
the media have a lot to answer for....and the politicians are weak at any time
too many photo opportunities...to be seen to be doing something...but nothing is happening....


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## Prospector (17 February 2009)

kincella said:


> the media have a lot to answer for....and the politicians are weak at any time
> too many photo opportunities...to be seen to be doing something...but nothing is happening....




This is going to sound really, really strange I know, almost perverted.  But we are so desperate for rain in Adelaide (4mls since January 1) that it is really difficult identify with the concept of too much water.  And this is really weird, I see pictures of some of the flood areas and I see green and I am , well,  jealous.  A flood would solve so many of South Australia's problems, that the 1 month clean up it would involve would be welcome.  And I have experienced a flood so I do know the mess that it involves.

The fire victims - we can really identify with!


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## kincella (17 February 2009)

prospector...no its not strange...you should hear the Vic and NSW people praying for rain....and wishing and hoping we would get some of that excess from Qld...
central Vic/NSW just watch helplessly as rain falls every where else...and none in those areas....Vic is coming up close to 15 years of drought...
we started to get some small falls overnight  in Melb city leading up to xmas...but none since....and family on the nsw/vic border get none of it...no matter where it falls....cannot recall it being so dry, for so long,  in my lifetime


----------



## Prospector (17 February 2009)

kincella said:


> prospector...no its not strange...you should hear the Vic and NSW people praying for rain....and wishing and hoping we would get some of that excess from Qld...




Yeah, well, NSW's irrigators take water from those further down stream so I have no sympathy for them.  The difference in the River Murray before/after the NSW border is staggering!

Melbourne actually looks worse than Adelaide at the moment, and we are bad enough. But we are losing so many trees because unlike Melbourne, our Councils have taken no steps to try to water them.


----------



## kincella (17 February 2009)

I have not been out and about much lately...but I have never seen them watering the trees around here...and you know we have the mighty yarra river gushing past my door and running out to sea....
its bordering on criminal...there should be dams evry 100 or so metres and the water pumped back into some use...or even taken in tankers up to the farmers.....but not allow it to run into the sea....

I do notice the skirts they have on all the trees to stop the possums climbing up...
growl GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR


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## MrBurns (17 February 2009)

If you didnt see MediaWatch last night you should read this - 

http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s2492755.htm

They may have the video of the show up later.

Shows how the bastard media have overstepped the line over and over, they were'nt even supposed to be in Marysville at all it was a crime scene but Ch9 was barging into peoples properties to get their "exclusives'

Read it it's an eye opener.


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## tech/a (17 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> Yeah, well, NSW's irrigators take water from those further down stream so I have no sympathy for them.  The difference in the River Murray before/after the NSW border is staggering!
> 
> Melbourne actually looks worse than Adelaide at the moment, and we are bad enough. *But we are losing so many trees because unlike Melbourne, our Councils have taken no steps to try to water them*.





Riding (Bike) to work this morning I actually noticed 5-10 yr old well established pines along the McLaren Vale Darlington Track dead from lack of water I counted 30---wouldnt normally have noticed but they were so big AND so dead!.

All our rates have doubled due to property values increasing and they STILL cant manage their back yard!
They talk the talk but hardly ever walk the walk!
Oh and the Council Depot is 1Km from these trees!


----------



## derty (17 February 2009)

It is sad Mr Burns, these tragedies always end up being media circuses. For me it cheapens the event and desensitises the public. Beaconsfield is another good example of the phenomena. 

It's just parasitic sensationalism.


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## Glen48 (17 February 2009)

Watching 4 cnrs on ABC last night ( think it is on again late tonight??) they had a house that looked  like it was owner builder done by the way the roof was finished of, wondering if owners live in that area have to comply with council regs.?
If so whats the point of trying to raise the building fire proofing standards if no one has control?


----------



## Calliope (17 February 2009)

The Brisconnections affair that Prospector mentioned yesterday refers to to a comment I made on that thread that seemingly rational people who make stupid decisions, should accept responsibility for their actions instead of trying to blame others for putting temptation in their way. I copped a lot of stick, some of it nasty, especially in personal messages. My views were contra to the popular view.

Imagine my surprise this morning, when my usually mild and pleasant hairdresser said that people who build houses on north-facing wooded slopes in fire hazardous zones deserved all they got. But  she added that to surround themselves with the unfortunate animals was criminal.


----------



## daisy (17 February 2009)

kincella said:


> daisy...I think its more the loss of life here in Vic that has driven this frenzy about the fires....but since I am more of an animal person...I would think the animals are faring just as badly in Qld....
> its like the Dianna thing...and others, the young ones focus on...its unreal
> 
> article  today saying no one is overseeing all this money, and the duplication of services between towns....
> ...




I in no way intended to diminish the terrible loss of human life.
Over the last few days, I had been thinking about the attention and national appeals to bush fire aftermath in relation to the flood victims of Nq.
At first I put it down to the death toll. But although not on nearly the same magnitude, there have been lives lost up here as well. In just one instance, there's a young couple swept away and I don't think their bodies have still been found.
Although, as I said, the overall toll is nowhere near on the same magnitude but if you take the starting point of each life being equally precious...
Then I realised that this was still fuzzy thinking because all of these appeals are about property not loss of life. No amount of money can undo that.


----------



## daisy (17 February 2009)

Glen48 said:


> Watching 4 cnrs on ABC last night ( think it is on again late tonight??) they had a house that looked  like it was owner builder done by the way the roof was finished of, wondering if owners live in that area have to comply with council regs.?
> If so whats the point of trying to raise the building fire proofing standards if no one has control?




This is something that I've wondered about as well. There's a link that I think Kincella put a few days ago about a mob who were suggesting new building standards regarding materials, fireproof cellars etc for some areas.. (I'm reluctant to say fireprone anymore) They seemed to make a lot of sense but given how long beauracratic red tape takes to make these suggestions enforceable via council regulations and the eagerness of people to rebuild I am starting to think nothing will change.


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## daisy (17 February 2009)

kincella said:


> Claus Hauth, whose house near Wandong stands untouched next to neighbours' charred homes, attributed his luck to buying a more expensive weatherboard.
> 
> "We wanted something that was termite-proof - turns out it's bushfire-proof as well," he said.
> 
> ...




Found the link


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## daisy (17 February 2009)

Just to add to what I've already said it appears to me that all those people in Victoria who were imprudent enough not to have insurance will come out of this O.K. I'm not sure what the outcome will be for those up here in the same situation.


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## pilots (17 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> The Brisconnections affair that Prospector mentioned yesterday refers to to a comment I made on that thread that seemingly rational people who make stupid decisions, should accept responsibility for their actions instead of trying to blame others for putting temptation in their way. I copped a lot of stick, some of it nasty, especially in personal messages. My views were contra to the popular view.
> 
> Imagine my surprise this morning, when my usually mild and pleasant hairdresser said that people who build houses on north-facing wooded slopes in fire hazardous zones deserved all they got. But  she added that to surround themselves with the unfortunate animals was criminal.




We have suburbs here in Perth(the hills) that the trees are all around the House, it WILL BURN ONE DAY, you can drive in to the hills here and see people with wood stacked next to the house. Will they EVER lean??


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## kincella (17 February 2009)

Daisy...I dont know why they should be ok...forget now whether its the govt giving them cash for each family and funerals, or if thats coming from the donations....
I mean double the risks,,, live in a dangerous area with out insurance ???
doubt if the donation money should all be spent on those without insurance...1800 odd homes lost  say 25% not insured = 450 homes at 200,000 building costs is  90 mill....
most of it will be spent on things for the communities...so everyone gets to share in it

btw notice NSw has declared their flood areas a disaster...but not QLD ???
where is anna bligh


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## daisy (17 February 2009)

kincella said:


> Daisy...I dont know why they should be ok...forget now whether its the govt giving them cash for each family and funerals, or if thats coming from the donations....
> I mean double the risks,,, live in a dangerous area with out insurance ???
> doubt if the donation money should all be spent on those without insurance...1800 odd homes lost  say 25% not insured = 450 homes at 200,000 building costs is  90 mill....
> most of it will be spent on things for the communities...so everyone gets to share in it
> ...




About insurance ...must have been my misinterpretation...sorry. Had my little rant. Calmed down now.
I don't know why QLd has not been declared a disaster area. What does declaring a disaster area mean exactly?


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## kincella (17 February 2009)

daisy..believe they are then eligible for fed govt funds to help them out....but why is the pm silent on that disaster...but was all over the place on the fires
heres a link to a nsw flood..

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25067992-29277,00.html

seems it applies to individual locations....and individuals get a small amount of money

http://news.theage.com.au/national/disaster-relief-for-northwest-qld-flood-20090105-7a0e.html

and todays news about FNQ and not declared a disaster area
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25066080-421,00.html

note the blogs on the side only 1.5 mill in donations so far


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## daisy (17 February 2009)

Thanks Kincella,
In the last week I haven't been paying as much attention to the news  because as you say media frenzy has all got a bit too much for me.

I think what has been happening is that because Qld is such a big and varied state environmentally and climatically the state hasn't been declared a disaster area just certain regions. I am almost certain that there is some gov't money e.g. for Ingham. 

The way the pollies seem to like to do it up here is make a grand visit to a disaster area and then deliver largesse by personally declaring it to be one.

So usually an area will be in trouble for a while until there is easy access for the pollie to get into it. Usually various volunteer organisations will have already arrived if they can get in and got people comfortable if they can. Gulf country is dreadfully remote and I'm not sure whether this is applicable but a small airline which I think used to service these areas has just recently gone into administration.

I will bet  ten to one that  as soon as this area is easily accessible one or another figurehead will make a royal visit to this area and make the appropriate announcement and deliver the appropriate largesse.


----------



## daisy (17 February 2009)

kincella said:


> daisy..believe they are then eligible for fed govt funds to help them out....but why is the pm silent on that disaster...but was all over the place on the fires




O.K. This is what I think. The death toll in Victoria has been devastating.
We are also in the middle of the biggest economic disaster since great depression with many people already lost jobs and many more to come. Everybody's worried. Let's unify the nation in one great big feel good gesture and focus on something other than the gloom and doom of the GFC.


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## kincella (17 February 2009)

a guy from over the road in sth yarra..sent a helicopter up that sat and rescued family in the middle of the fires...I would do the same for my family if they were in danger and could not get out...
so why not the pollies go in..
just saw cattle with water above their bellies in FNQ
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr


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## daisy (17 February 2009)

I don't know anything about livestock but if an area is flooded and cut off from all sides can cattle be airlifted out one by one? What can be done?


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## kincella (17 February 2009)

in the old days..my dad used to get into a boat and herd them to safer ground...never seen a cow swim but horses can be taught.....
ok so the answer is cows can swim..they dont like to..but will if in danger
would be very difficult to helicopter them out...need to get the harness on...
so herding in a boat is my best guess....much like on a bike on the ground
I googled the question
here is a photo
http://www.flickr.com/photos/91944832@N00/56906671/


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## daisy (17 February 2009)

That's an amazing photo.
We've gone way off topic here. Trying to relate it back I can think of two themes. One is that of fatalism. You live up here you learn to live with the bad as well as the good. The other is preparedness. I'm not sure about floods up in the gulf but in some coastal towns at least we were well warned and those that lost less were those who had prepared the most.


----------



## Calliope (17 February 2009)

Item in SMH


> Links to Sokaluk's profiles on MySpace and MyYearBook were widely circulated.
> "Ya know, I would go to jail myself if I could get my hands on this creep, let me hurt him, burn him, put a bullet and knife in every orrifice of his body," wrote one poster.
> 
> "tie the bastard to a post and put a ring of fire around him....let the fire make its way to him and make him suffer like the other 100's of people had to indure," wrote another.
> ...




I think these sick people should be under surveillance as well as the arsonists.


----------



## MrBurns (17 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Item in SMH
> 
> 
> I think these sick people should be under surveillance as well as the arsonists.




I think I recognise the writing style from a couple of ex posters in here


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## Prospector (17 February 2009)

Hmm, if I was a lawyer defending the undefendable, I might think that info on the web was helpful so that when it came to a court case claim my client is unable to secure a fair trial?


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## Calliope (17 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I think I recognise the writing style from a couple of ex posters in here




You will notice that a common thread is their illiteracy.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Sorry to have upset you. I know it is a heresy to suggest a Greenie could ever get it wrong. But I also thought that the State and Local Authorities who pander to the Greens must assume the greater blame. After all I assumed they knew better. I thought they would be well aware of the recommendations of the previous fire enquiries.
> 
> However as a remote observer of this tragedy my opinions obviously can't carry the same weight as a Tasmanian with more fire and wilderness experience.
> 
> So maybe I am wrong.



No, no no!

I meant the Greens have been wrong, not that what you are saying is wrong. 

The original comment just got me thinking back to the past quarter century of Green politics and their oft-repeated claim to have "been proven right". They've been right about some things yes, but clearly wrong on a lot of others as have all politicians.

I've spent quite a bit of my life near the front line of environmental issues. And the one thing that's consistent is that green activists use emotion almost exclusively, a tactic that worked consistently until their opponents worked out how to play the game. Now it's all emotion and not a fact to be found anywhere amongst the debate.

The same tactics are being used in relation to the fire issue. Jump up and down screaming about anyone who wants to clear the hazards before there's a fire. It might spoil the scenery, make some smoke and maybe kill a few animals. 

Then when we've got vast areas destroyed, the environment devastated, human and animal deaths everywhere, they have the nerve to blame it all on climate change and say we'd better get used to it. That's the claim they've actually made in relation to these fires.

It's a fire version of the same old industry tactic we've seen in Tas for years. Claim some major industry is about to close. Then mount a major campaign to ensure there isn't enough power, water, land, raw materials or whatever else it needs to keep going. Then claim to have been proven right when it downsizes or closes.  

In short, predict that something bad is going to happen, do everything possible to make sure it does, and then claim to have been proven correct in your prediction. That's the consistent pattern here. It's bad enough when you're throwing people out of work, but it's far worse when we've got entire towns burning to the ground. 

I'm not anti-environment. Not at all. I've been on about the benefits of renewable energy due to the CO2 issue for a couple of _decades_ now and I've been recycling just as long. And the oil / CO2 issue is the only reason I've never owned any car bigger than 4 cyl. But I've seen just about all of it and I'm truly fed up with the constant diversion of attention and waffling about nonsense that is green and indeed all politics. 

Clear the fire hazards. Get the politicians' hands off fire safety and put someone who knows what they're doing in charge and let them get on with it. I'm sure there will be good opportunities this Winter and Spring for some proper fuel reduction burning across SA, Vic, NSW and Tas that will reduce risks the following Summer. Just get on with it and stop making excuses, forming committies and so on. Just do it.


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## Calliope (17 February 2009)

Smurf 

I owe you an apology. I have always admired your common sense approach to the climate change debate and I have no excuse for misreading your stance on this issue. I have made the error, which I have criticised in others, of  jumping to conclusions before getting full informed.


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## profit off it (17 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Smurf
> 
> I owe you an apology. I have always admired your common sense approach to the climate change debate and I have no excuse for misreading your stance on this issue. I have made the error, which I have criticised in others, of  jumping to conclusions before getting full informed.




Aaaww... shucks... now you two just kiss and make up, y'hear?


----------



## Calliope (17 February 2009)

profit off it said:


> Aaaww... shucks... now you two just kiss and make up, y'hear?




This guy is a real comedy act.


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## Julia (17 February 2009)

kincella said:


> a guy from over the road in sth yarra..sent a helicopter up that sat and rescued family in the middle of the fires...I would do the same for my family if they were in danger and could not get out...
> so why not the pollies go in..
> just saw cattle with water above their bellies in FNQ
> grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr



Saw the same, kincella.  Heartbreaking.   And much of the cattle had been moved to higher ground.  Then the water just rose further.   Tens of thousands have been lost.  This seems even more sad when the loss is referred to just  in terms of lost revenue for the farmers.  Yes, I know that's what cattle farming is all about.   I still feel for the animals.


----------



## Julia (17 February 2009)

kincella said:


> btw notice NSw has declared their flood areas a disaster...but not QLD ???
> where is anna bligh



Where is Anna Bligh?  She's busy preparing her election campaign, notably having a *Melbourne*IT company prepare her new website.
Don't we have a capable IT company here in Qld, Anna?

But no doubt she's going to be whipping up north on the government jet to garner votes in the next weeks.  Probably saving up the assistance that is so much needed now so she can be seen to be loving and giving during the campaign.


----------



## Calliope (17 February 2009)

Julia said:


> But no doubt she's going to be whipping up north on the government jet to garner votes in the next weeks.  Probably saving up the assistance that is so much needed now so she can be seen to be loving and giving during the campaign.




I can't wait to see Anna in her hard hat and high heels minus the toothy grin giving comfort to the flood victims. But our Northeners can spot a phony a mile off. They have more faith in Bob Katter who understands their problems.


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## daisy (18 February 2009)

*More than half of Qld to get flood aid*

More than 56 per cent of Queensland - an area almost the size of South Australia - is now eligible for disaster relief funds after recent monsoonal weather.

Thirty Queensland communities have been declared disaster zones, with the damage bill estimated at more than $60 million.

Aurukun, Charters Towers, Hopevale, Kowanyama, Lockhart River, Mapoon, Mornington, Northern Peninsula and Pormpuraaw are the latest communities to be given access to the joint state and federal disaster relief program.

Queensland's Emergency Services Minister Neil Roberts said the total damage bill across the state, including an estimated $9.6 million worth of damage to public infrastructure, was $62.5 million.

Eight rivers - the Diamantina, Georgina, Nicholson, Gregory, Cloncurry, Flinders, and Norman, and Eyre Creek - remain in flood after further heavy falls on Monday night around Urandangi (61mm) and Camooweal (58mm).

Floods have cut major roads into the state's north-west for more than a week and the communities of Normanton and Karumba are expected to be isolated for at least another six weeks.

About 8,000kg of dry food and medications and 3,000kg of perishable food were flown to Normanton on Tuesday.

Karumba will receive supplies by barge on January 27, and goods will be shipped to Mornington Island in the Gulf of Carpentaria by Sunday.

The Richmond Shire Council is also organising food drops to isolated properties over the next two days.

It could be eight weeks before Bedourie, in south-west Queensland, is accessible by road.

Mr Roberts said personal hardship grants of $165 per person and up to $765 per family were available for directly affected residents.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1005592/More-than-half-of-Qld-to-get-flood-aid
This date 20 jan.


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## daisy (18 February 2009)

Also this

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25051665-952,00.html
Feb 13

TWO-thirds of Queensland has been disaster-declared with a virtual inland sea covering a million square kilometres - the size of South Australia.

Seven people are dead, most washed away in raging torrents, hundreds are homeless and thousands have lost all of their possessions in the biggest flooding event in three decades.

Flood refugee Katie Price, a mother of seven, has no home and nowhere to go.

She is one of thousands of flood-affected north Queenslanders counting the cost as receding floodwaters expose an estimated state-wide $300 million damage bill.

"It has been a living nightmare," said Ms Price, 29, whose young family are the last remaining flood refugees sleeping on the gymnasium floor in hardest-hit Ingham.

"There was so much water my roof collapsed," Ms Price said.

"We had nowhere to go because our little township was cut off. All we could do was sit in the flooded house for 10 days watching water pour out the light sockets."

Her story is familiar to the 12,000 flood-weary residents in the Ingham district where rotting piles of couches, whitegoods and clothing line the streets.

"The stench of the flood mud is gut-wrenching. It is everywhere," said Halifax father-of-four Tony Lewis.

"We have all got cabin fever from being stuck in the house unable to move for two weeks," he said.

Unsung hero Frank Demarco said his fishing village of Taylors Beach was cut off for 10 days until he was able to co-ordinate helicopter resupply to the 200, mostly elderly, residents.

"We were the forgotten town," Mr Demarco said.

"It was a schmozzle. There need to be some lessons learnt in how to manage disasters. We had helicopters landing to deliver one package of pills, but no bread or fresh supplies."

Ingham Mayor Pino Giandomenico said 3000 homes were flood-affected, 50 had metre-deep water inside the house and, at its peak, 53 men women and children were sheltering in the refugee centre. 

He said the true Aussie spirit was evident as some Ingham flood victims donated their $1000 federal assistance payout to the bushfire appeal.

"Give me a flood anytime. We have the sun out and we feel like a weight is off our shoulders," Cr Giandomenico said.

Receding floodwaters have revealed the shattered jigsaw puzzle of the north's road network.

Highways are flooded with a convoy of trucks delivering hundreds of tonnes of fresh produce to empty shelves in Cairns, Innisfail and Port Douglas.

Towns in central Queensland such as Muttaburra near Longreach have joined those in the Gulf and Cape York as cut off by floodwaters in the aftermath of ex-tropical cyclone Ellie.

The monsoonal low, related to that weather event alone, has dumped an average 229mm across Queensland.

The highest rainfall for the month of January was Paluma, near Townsville, with 1631mm of rain, Tully with 1382.6mm and Babinda with 1370mm.

Food drops are continuing by air and barge to Normanton, Croydon and other isolated communities in the Gulf that expect to be cut off by road for at least another six weeks. 

Karumba in the Gulf is surrounded by water but there is very little to drink because floods have breached the pipe that supplies the Gulf town's 600 residents.

Pending the arrival of a portable water treatment plant, the town has three to six days of water in storage.

Carpentaria Shire Council chief executive Mark Kelleher said he expected the Defence Department to agree to the State Government's request for the portable treatment plant used by troops.

The the treatment plant would be flown to Normanton and sent by barge to Karumba which had been cut off for five weeks and would remain so for up to another six weeks.

Water is not the only thing in short supply in Gulf towns. Beer sales are being restricted in Normanton's three pubs where there are no takeaway sales.


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## daisy (18 February 2009)

daisy said:


> Karumba in the Gulf is surrounded by water but there is very little to drink because floods have breached the pipe that supplies the Gulf town's 600 residents.
> 
> Pending the arrival of a portable water treatment plant, the town has three to six days of water in storage.
> 
> ...




This pipe could not be fixed because nobody could access it because of crocodiles. Always a problem up north, but they are really free ranging at the moment.


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## daisy (18 February 2009)

Talk is that in all probability we are to expect another cyclone forming off the NE coast within the next three weeks. 
These kinds of long forecast predictions are not uncommon up here.
Most of the time not much happens. Usually just means more rain. 
Back to the boy who cried wolf.


----------



## daisy (18 February 2009)

daisy said:


> Thanks Kincella,
> In the last week I haven't been paying as much attention to the news  because as you say media frenzy has all got a bit too much for me.
> 
> I think what has been happening is that because Qld is such a big and varied state environmentally and climatically the state hasn't been declared a disaster area just certain regions. I am almost certain that there is some gov't money e.g. for Ingham.
> ...




So it seems I was way wrong. As I said I haven't been keeping up with the news much lately. I rarely buy the Townsville Bulletin  because it's very parochial (spelling?). Usually buy The Australian and of course all coverage is on Victoria. Did a bit of checking this morning because I knew people were donating their assistance money to Victoria. Sorry for misleading everyone.


----------



## daisy (18 February 2009)

But there will still be photo opportunities galore.
There was a cracker last week of Quentin Bryce jumping a puddle in Ingam.
She also apparantly engaged in conversation with with some of the locals while they were clearing the mud and rotten furniture from their houses.
There she was, all dressed in white, looking like some kind of stick insect,
while residents were sweating and covered in mud and muck from their clean-up.
Not very clever Quentin.


----------



## Calliope (18 February 2009)

daisy said:


> But there will still be photo opportunities galore.
> There was a cracker last week of Quentin Bryce jumping a puddle in Ingam.
> She also apparantly engaged in conversation with with some of the locals while they were clearing the mud and rotten furniture from their houses.
> There she was, all dressed in white, looking like some kind of stick insect,
> ...




You got that right. I well remember QB touring the WW1 battlefields in France last year dressed in an immaculately tailored (taxpayer funded) black mourning suit with matching black hat and bag and large entourage. She was also wearing the suitable mourning face and saying the scripted suitable things. 

These junkets cost a lot of money. Are we getting the value for our buck from a politically appointed GG. She and MS Reine are buddies from way back.

On the other hand it could be a deliberate ploy to demean the office of GG in the republican cause. Maybe very clever.


----------



## daisy (18 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> On the other hand it could be a deliberate ploy to demean the office of GG in the republican cause. Maybe very clever.




I hadn't thought of that. I remember being very pleased that we had appointed a female GG, until I saw her very first T.V. interview. Her elitism was so blindingly obvious. It appeared as if her cocoon was so well built that I immediately lost any hope that she would be of any value to the average Aussie.


----------



## Calliope (18 February 2009)

daisy said:


> I hadn't thought of that. I remember being very pleased that we had appointed a female GG, until I saw her very first T.V. interview. Her elitism was so blindingly obvious. It appeared as if her cocoon was so well built that I immediately lost any hope that she would be of any value to the average Aussie.




Daisy, it will be interesting to to see what outfit our GG wears to Rudd's mournfest in Melbourne next Sunday. Will she wear the black number or the white one? Probably neither. They have probably already gone to St Vinnies for the deserving poor. Maybe yellow, representing a ray of hope in a desolate land.


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## daisy (18 February 2009)

Caught this programme other morning on radio national.
Now on-line.

_"Distributing funds to bushfire victims


One of the most pressing tasks for those assisting the bushfire victims is how best to provide financial assistance. Australians have responded to appeals in an amazing way, with just on $100 million dollars raised in a week.

But how do you make sure these funds go to the right people at the right time? That task has fallen to the Bushfire Appeal Fund Advisory Panel, appointed by Victorian premier John Brumby in conjunction with the Red Cross."_

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/stories/2009/2492159.htm

to listen to this interview.


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## kincella (18 February 2009)

getting a bit off topic...start a new thread about that one....apparently she was going to spend 6.5 million on renovating the GG house....dont like her one bit....its all just a freebie taxpayer funded good time for her....never seen such wasted money....she attends all the causes and does nothing...just another front to be seen to do something....like firing blanks
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
now good to see the firies raised 300,000 from the sale of those photos of Sam the koala...finally some news about the animals.....they have not found many...they think 10 mill animals now lost burnt died a horrid death

http://www.theage.com.au/national/sanctuary-for-all-creatures-great-and-small-20090217-8aa7.html


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## Prospector (18 February 2009)

daisy said:


> There she was, all dressed in white, looking like some kind of stick insect,




  Yes, that captures her!


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## daisy (18 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Daisy, it will be interesting to to see what outfit our GG wears to Rudd's mournfest in Melbourne next Sunday. Will she wear the black number or the white one? Probably neither. They have probably already gone to St Vinnies for the deserving poor. Maybe yellow, representing a ray of hope in a desolate land.




LOL... My bet is full black or possibly grey, but whatever it is I'm almost certain she won't pass up the opportunity to buy a new outfit, complete with carefully co-ordinated accessories.


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## daisy (18 February 2009)

kincella said:


> now good to see the firies raised 300,000 from the sale of those photos of Sam the koala...finally some news about the animals.....they have not found many...they think 10 mill animals now lost burnt died a horrid death
> 
> http://www.theage.com.au/national/sanctuary-for-all-creatures-great-and-small-20090217-8aa7.html




That's great about the money and dreadful about the loss.
Where are the greenies now?


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## kincella (18 February 2009)

here is a good story about an old man kangaroo...survived the fires and came back home to his 'family'

the greens....( a brief summary of what they do IMO)
take all the land you can, get it for nothing...lock it up so no one can enjoy it anymore....lock out the cattle and sheep that grazed there...
provide no maintenance whatsover.....
use the excuse you are protecting the land....if a tree falls on the road, just move it to the side..to help build up the rubbish for future bush fires....
now when the fires come...as they always will.....it will be so fierce that it will wipe out all trees and vegetation, and maim and kill all the wildlife animals....so that there is nothing left but scorched earth....
dont worry about this destruction polluting the water....
and requiring even more water in the future.........
we are the greens and we are protectors of this land..........
result...total destruction of an unbelievable scale
I hear about them chasing the whale hunters....never hear of them on any other animal....including all the beaching of whales and dolphins...

http://www.theage.com.au/national/o...-link-with-how-things-were-20090217-8aau.html


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## Calliope (18 February 2009)

kincella said:


> here is a good story about an old man kangaroo...survived the fires and came back home to his 'family'
> 
> http://www.theage.com.au/national/o...-link-with-how-things-were-20090217-8aau.html




A good kangaroo story...but what happened to the chooks?


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## kincella (18 February 2009)

probably left in the cages and burnt.....since the story was about panicking...and being un prepared


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## Calliope (18 February 2009)

One of the few positive outcomes from the fires is that the spotlight is now being turned on the environmental vandals. (ie the greenies)

I like this story In The Australian "cut and paste"


> Rod Liddle in The Sunday Times:
> 
> PRINCE Charles is doing his bit to save the world from environmental destruction by embarking on a 26,240km eco-tour of South America on a large private jet. His intention is to see for himself the scale of destruction caused by global warming so far and, presumably, to try to double it.
> 
> ...


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## Prospector (18 February 2009)

That story reminds of that "1 hour switch off your lights on Saturday night" rort, where Virgin Blue decided to hold a full on party that night, in candlight to honour it.  But spent the afternoon and presumably the next day flying people from all over Australia to attend it in Brisbane.

I feel sorry for a greenie; he came round the next week handing out material for some Green group seeking donations.  He asked me what I thought of the 1 hour electricity switch off - I told him I thought it was the biggest load of garbage (well, I said worse than that) and such a token gesture designed to make people feel good but totally ignoring what they were doing every day.  At which point he sighed and walked off.


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## daisy (18 February 2009)

Calliope,
I've been walking around shaking my head and absolutely speechless over your story. If it wasn't so awful it would be funny.


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## MrBurns (18 February 2009)

Seriously wouldn't this be better put down ?, I think they've taken the save the animals thing a bit far here -


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## Calliope (18 February 2009)

The Punters Love a Good Disaster

http://business.smh.com.au/business/the-punters-love-a-good-disaster-20090217-8a98.html


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## Julia (18 February 2009)

daisy said:


> But there will still be photo opportunities galore.
> There was a cracker last week of Quentin Bryce jumping a puddle in Ingam.
> She also apparantly engaged in conversation with with some of the locals while they were clearing the mud and rotten furniture from their houses.
> There she was, all dressed in white, looking like some kind of stick insect,
> ...



The Courier Mail ran an article recently criticising the Qld Governor, Penny Wensley, for* not* getting out and visiting the flood ravaged areas, and noted that Quentin Bryce had been setting a good example.     It included some sarcastic remarks about tea parties.

So if Quentin Bryce had not in fact gone to the fire affected areas, wouldn't she equally have been criticised for 'not caring and remaining distantly in her ivory tower ?

If it were up to me I'd get rid of the offices of Governor-General and all the State Governors, but, since such offices do exist just what do we expect these people to do?

So Ms Bryce visited the fire areas dressed in white.  What difference does it make what she wore? And why the unpleasant comment that she looked like "a stick insect"?  Seems to me to be a gratuitous and quite nasty observation.

  What exactly do you expect her to do?  Start raking through the ashes?
Had she arrived in grubby jeans and shirt, someone would have said "Jeez, she's the Governor-General, wouldn't you think she could dress a bit better given what we pay her"!

I notice that none of you criticised Mr Rudd's dress or appearance (he wasn't grubby either) when he appeared amongst the fire survivors to offer comfort.
Wasn't Ms Bryce attempting to do the same thing?

So I can't help thinking in the interests of fairness to Quentin Bryce or any other holder of a similar office, that we just love to jump on any (real or imagined) opportunity to criticise.   I'm really not sure why.


In another thread a while ago, someone suggested the tall poppy syndrome was alive and well in Australia.  It would seem so.


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## daisy (18 February 2009)

O.K. Julia,
I take your point.
I just wish I could find the particular photo I was referring to.
Done an on-line search.
Can't find.
If you had seen it it may have tickled your funny bone as well.
Never seen anything looking more like a stick insect in my life. 
Oh and while Ingham was suffering all kinds of shortages because it had been almost impossible to get supplies in because roads were blocked, while Ms Bryce was there she dined on fish (plenty of) and asparagus. 
Something tells me it wasn't the canned variety.
And why not?... after all as you say she is a tall poppy.


----------



## Calliope (19 February 2009)

Julia said:


> So I can't help thinking in the interests of fairness to Quentin Bryce or any other holder of a similar office, that we just love to jump on any (real or imagined) opportunity to criticise.   I'm really not sure why.
> In another thread a while ago, someone suggested the tall poppy syndrome was alive and well in Australia.  It would seem so.




Maybe you are right Julia about the tall poppy thing, but I prefer to think that its because Australians are good at sniffing out phonies, hypocrites and poseurs and I think that a lot of politicians and political appointees fall into this category. Whether they are tall poppies is immaterial. 

Governors and GGs are political appointees. Most people would be quite happy  if they could be content with just being the figureheads which they are and bide their time until they become redundant. Bryce wasn't appointed for her vice-regal qualities. She is there because she is a republican and a mate of the Rudd family. Her role, if anything. is to demean the office, and I think she is well suited for that role.

And by the way. I think stick insect is spot on.


----------



## daisy (19 February 2009)

Julia said:


> Where is Anna Bligh?  She's busy preparing her election campaign, notably having a *Melbourne*IT company prepare her new website.
> Don't we have a capable IT company here in Qld, Anna?
> 
> But no doubt she's going to be whipping up north on the government jet to garner votes in the next weeks.  Probably saving up the assistance that is so much needed now so she can be seen to be loving and giving during the campaign.




Enough said I think.

We've just had a 5-6 ft. king brown snake looking for shelter in our bathroom.
Thankfully I saw it before I walked in. It just sat a while and then slithered out under the side external door.
The reptiles up here are all over the place at the moment. 
We usually know where the crocs are but with all the rivers bursting their banks they are turning up all over the place.

*Taxi driver runs over crocodile in Mt Isa*
February 18, 2009 
Article from:  Agence France-Presse 
A TAXI driver has run over and killed a crocodile the centre of Mt Isa.

When the driver reported the accident, "police thought he may have been a bit strange or under the influence of liquor or something but it was all above board," Inspector Ray Pringle said.

The taxi collided with the one-metre croc while driving in Mount Isa in the early hours of today.

"Sure enough when they went down, there was this freshwater croc,'' Insp Pringle said on the ABC.

"It was quite severely injured and they looked at opportunities to save its life but the injuries were so bad it passed away."

Insp Pringle said that while there are freshwater crocodiles in Lake Moondarra near the city it was rare to have a crocodile reported in the city centre.

Earlier this month floods washed crocodiles onto the streets of two other towns in Queensland, prompting police to issue warnings to motorists.

One, measuring 1.6m was run over in Townsville. It lost a few teeth and suffered bruising but survived after receiving medical attention.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25072517-26103,00.html


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## daisy (19 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> The Punters Love a Good Disaster
> 
> http://business.smh.com.au/business/the-punters-love-a-good-disaster-20090217-8a98.html




The media up here is no different. Bushfires have consumed us all.
In the meantime I don't even know what's going on in my own backyard.. 
Anna Bligh visited Ingham the day before the bushfires. This info clearly got lost amid the horror of Vic. There's a photo of her with bread and vegemite. Much more NQ style.
http://www.aapimage.com.au/search.a...TE>20090203)&gallery=FLOODS+NORTH+QUEENSLAND+

Also Emergency Services Minister Roberts made his 2nd trip to Normanton and Karumba yesterday. I actually have Townsville Bulletin today and this is not mentioned.

What has happened in Victoria is horrible. The loss of life is staggering. I truly hope that (one way or another) something constructive will come out of this  so that even though there will probably be future fires, no more lives will be lost.


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## Garpal Gumnut (19 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> One of the few positive outcomes from the fires is that the spotlight is now being turned on the environmental vandals. (ie the greenies)





The Green lobby will face some hard questions that will need to be answered at the forthcoming Royal Commission into the Victorian bushfires.

The warped policies of Nillumbik Council should be exposed and never repeated.

Backburning is essential in these high fuel areas and ideological banning of fuel reduction, burning and tree felling should be condemned and dispatched to the godbothering gaia brain-dead style-bin from which it arose. 

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/this-burning-issue-of-life-and-death-20090218-8bee.html?page=-1

gg


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## pilots (19 February 2009)

GG, You can't cut the trees down, them dole bludgers have to have some thing to chain them self to.


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## kincella (19 February 2009)

the question about bunkers, radiant heat, and air sucked out of everything....
I was getting excited about the bunkers last week, not only for the people, but for animals as well...even wildlife
family member last night said since radiant heat only travels in a straight line...so you can put the bunker underground and all will be safe...
that is assuming the underground structure can support the walls and roof and the mound of earth on top...and there is a big cleared area so that nothing can fall on the entrance..or exit...
my idea is to have an underground haven...but it is not sealed, there is, for example, a huge concrete pipe but it is open both ends....that ones for the people...so in this case no worries about the oxygen ????

for the animals I would have the container terminal underground, with structural supports for the earth on top....again open both ends....you teach the horses or cows to go underground as a normal part of life...so that when a fire is coming...going underground is not a problem for them....I would feed them down there on a regular basis..
so next question is...can the oxygen be sucked out from underground.....
now I just watched a video...think it was the bloke with the bunker next to his concrete water tank....L shaped entrance...and they watched the fire from inside the bunker...so that might answer my question

another professor is talking about herding people into underground car parks...

http://mybiz.optus.com.au/channel/tvandvideo/tvandvideo_news_abc/tvandvideo_news_abc_block/486


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## Smurf1976 (19 February 2009)

daisy said:


> What has happened in Victoria is horrible. The loss of life is staggering. I truly hope that (one way or another) something constructive will come out of this  so that even though there will probably be future fires, no more lives will be lost.



I too am hoping we'll be able to avoid loss of life in the future. But sadly, that we didn't learn now to avoid this following the events of Ash Wednesday (Vic / SA 1983) or Black Tuesday (Tas 1967) makes me think we'll repeat the loss of life. 

Both of those two previous events resulted in many deaths - 62 in the Tas fires and I think it was about 75 in the Vic / SA fires. Sadly that wasn't enough to stop us building houses surrounded by trees then failing to carry out proper fuel reduction burning when it's safe. Now we have a disaster bigger than those two put together in terms of lives lost.


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## daisy (19 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> I too am hoping we'll be able to avoid loss of life in the future. But sadly, that we didn't learn now to avoid this following the events of Ash Wednesday (Vic / SA 1983) or Black Tuesday (Tas 1967) makes me think we'll repeat the loss of life.
> 
> Both of those two previous events resulted in many deaths - 62 in the Tas fires and I think it was about 75 in the Vic / SA fires. Sadly that wasn't enough to stop us building houses surrounded by trees then failing to carry out proper fuel reduction burning when it's safe. Now we have a disaster bigger than those two put together in terms of lives lost.




1967 62 lives lost
1983 75 lives lost
2009 roughly 200 lives lost.

It's getting worse ...not better 
While I’ve carried on a bit about the problems we are having up here at the moment, I have also tried to say that on a relative scale, they pale into insignificance compared to Victoria. 
Nobody up here would dispute that. Which is why many up this way are donating their own disaster relief grants to Victorian appeals. But the pattern that is emerging is one that could well mean that unless a more pro-active stance is taken, there is no guarantee that such a national out-pouring of compassion will be forthcoming in the future. 
Please do not interpret this post as an attempt to blame the victim. But the issues that are emerging do leave many of us with questions.
 For example, if Vic gov’t is so crippled by the greens regarding fuel loads, why did they not make other provisions regarding the safety of settlement in these areas e.g. building codes, better warning signals, more fire fighters, communal safe areas, etc...


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## Julia (19 February 2009)

daisy said:


> Nobody up here would dispute that. Which is why many up this way are donating their own disaster relief grants to Victorian appeals. But the pattern that is emerging is one that could well mean that unless a more pro-active stance is taken, there is no guarantee that such a national out-pouring of compassion will be forthcoming in the future.
> Please do not interpret this post as an attempt to blame the victim. But the issues that are emerging do leave many of us with questions.



I don't think anyone would interpret your comments as blaming anyone, Daisy.
I agree that many will have the same questions.

The generosity of spirit from FNQ people, in such a mess with the overwhelming floods, is pretty amazing imo.

Btw, how is it up there now?  Has the rain stopped?  Water draining away?
It must be awful.  I do feel for the people who have been cut off for so long.


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## daisy (19 February 2009)

Hi Julia,
Where I live in Townsville, there has been isolated problems. King tides on top of the rain meant houses in some areas were pretty badly affected.  My own house is on high ground and personally we are O.K. (The snakes are a bit of a worry though)
Roads are a mess. Huge potholes everywhere and we can't get our car into carport because the back laneway is washed away. 
Last week the supermarkets were empty of milk and meat (in particular) because that comes from further North and roads were blocked. 
No big deal on the scale of things.

 I used to live further North and that is where my heart is. And further North it is a different story.  It takes a long while for flood waters to recede. Nothing can be done until that happens. Then it's time to clean up and assess the damage to infrastructure.

It is still bucketing down most nights and with talk of another cyclone/low within the next 3 weeks, the worry is that if flood waters have not cleared by then ....


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## numbercruncher (20 February 2009)

Im certain heads are going to roll in this royal commission .....



> City firies 'banned' from bushfires
> 
> 
> The CFA has been accused of blocking city firefighters from helping fight the horrific blazes that burnt Victoria and claimed at least 208 lives.
> ...




http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/754565/city-firies-banned-from-bushfires


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## Aussiejeff (20 February 2009)

numbercruncher said:


> Im certain heads are going to roll in this royal commission .....
> 
> 
> 
> http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/754565/city-firies-banned-from-bushfires




This is a disgraceful state of affairs and shows just how incompetent, uncaring and negligent the government and certain state fire "authorities" have been with regard to the required level of fire disaster preparedness and safety that should be have been offered to all Victorians. :angry:

It's a disgusting revelation and won't help the fragile emotional state of many of the victims and their relatives either. I agree, heads MUST roll this time and a single over-arching State (or even Federal) Fire Authority should steamroll these bickering, self-interested groups into one cohesive body of fire fighting assets with only ONE Commander.  

Then again, these imperatives have been swept under various gummint carpets before. Will this time be any different? 

Here too...



> *A paid CFA firefighter said he was one of about six professionals who sat doing nothing at a station in Melbourne's outer north when the fire started.*
> 
> "We listened to the events, including guys getting burnt out, but we were not deployed," he said. "We contacted the duty officers and said: 'We are here.' I don't think they knew.
> 
> ...




http://www.theage.com.au/national/cfa-didnt-want-us-city-crews-20090219-8co5.html


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## Calliope (20 February 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> This is a disgraceful state of affairs and shows just how incompetent, uncaring and negligent the government and certain state fire "authorities" have been with regard to the required level of fire disaster preparedness and safety that should be have been offered to all Victorians. :angry:




In the 7.30 Report last night, it showed that Canberra, our most left-leaning city, has learned valuable lessons from their 2003 fire disaster. *Including regular fuel reductions programs in the colder months.*

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/


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## kincella (20 February 2009)

Canberra... a huge clearing to separate them from the pine forest next door....every house has its own sprinkler sysem on the roof.....hello..yes that makes sense

about last Sat....there were 60 fire experts / people wandering around the fire headquarters down in the docklands....????? wonder what they were doing....oh yeah..communications were down, fire spotting plane could not go out, used the abc for reports to the public...but the phones were out.....sounds like absolute mayhem...and a useless system,,,,

what no 2 way radios or whatever.....mobiles usually dont work up in the hills


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## Aussiejeff (20 February 2009)

kincella said:


> Canberra... a huge clearing to separate them from the pine forest next door....every house has its own sprinkler sysem on the roof.....hello..yes that makes sense
> 
> about last Sat....there were 60 fire experts / people wandering around the fire headquarters down in the docklands....????? wonder what they were doing....oh yeah..communications were down, fire spotting plane could not go out, used the abc for reports to the public...but the phones were out.....sounds like absolute mayhem...and a useless system,,,,
> 
> what no 2 way radios or whatever.....mobiles usually dont work up in the hills




Victoria has had 26 years since Ash Wednesday to do something constructive. The result?

PATHETIC!


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## Calliope (20 February 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Victoria has had 26 years since Ash Wednesday to do something constructive. The result?
> 
> PATHETIC!




And this could have been averted. All Victoria had to do, if they wanted to ignore their own advisers, was send their Minister for Disasters (whoever he is ) up to Canberra to learn how it was done.

But that would have  involved meaningful communication and cooperation between States and that is not on.


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## daisy (20 February 2009)

I found a picture!
There’s an article in today’s paper but it is not on-line.
Here’s the relevant bits.
*Send Water South Plan.*
By John Anderson
The massive outflow of water from NQ rivers has sparked a radical $ 5.6 billion plan to deliver water to SE Australia by canal.
Engineer Terry Bowring said a fraction of the billions of litres of floodwater running down the Burdekin and major Gulf rivers could supply southern capital cities and rejuvenate agriculture along the Murray-darling.
NSW based Mr Bowring said that on average 173,000 gigalitres (one gigalitre equals one billion litres) of water entered the ocean from NQ rivers.
This was 100 times the amount used by consumers in all Southern capitals. .....
Mr Bowring said the CSIRO had estimated that rainfall trends in NQ would maintain current patterns for 90 years while southern capitals, starting in the west , would dry out rapidly.
Mr Bowring is working with 2 major national construction identities on a plan to send between 4000 and 8000 gigalitres of NQ water south each year.....
The water would be channelled to SE Australia via canal.
The futuristic plan would enable Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide to use water from the north. Other water would be directed to agriculture along the Murray-Darling.....
Mr Bowring said one option was to pump water into the Gilbert River formation aquifer, a massive underground formation which extends from north of Hughenden to Cairns.
Storing water underground minimised evaporation.
“I think it is possible to store 20,000 GL of water in the aquifer, but this would not be an annual event. We would probably like to keep about 6000GL stored there or in other aquifers to cover low rainfall years” he said.
Mr Bowring said cement-lined canals would be cheaper than piping. 
River-bed transportation would be costly because of evaporation.....
His project has the support of Waterman AHW Consulting Engineers, one of Australia’s largest engineering firms.


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## kincella (20 February 2009)

daisy, that makes sense...but out of 173,000 gigs sending less than 5%, gee why not store it somewhere, for future use....I know people who would buy it and have it carted down here to save their stock and farms

good idea to go underground to stop evaporation...
good article..thanks
and back to the fires....was Canberra only 6 years ago...then there was the big Alpine forest fires.....massive fires every couple of years...each time theres a royal commission....except for Canberra...taking notice.....nothing from the other mobs...nsw and vic....no need for a royal commission....advice from 70 years ago still holds true today....
oh except for the big stuff up at headquarters
notice everyone is allowed input into the RC...so we should all send in notices to them....
todays news the MRB sat idly by...is almost unbelievable


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## MrBurns (20 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> And this could have been averted. All Victoria had to do, if they wanted to ignore their own advisers, was send their Minister for Disasters (whoever he is ) up to Canberra to learn how it was done.
> 
> But that would have  involved meaningful communication and cooperation between States and that is not on.




You're right and it has cost 200 lives, *negligence* and I hope the class action succeeds big time.


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## Prospector (20 February 2009)

Daisy, that would be an awesome plan!  We have had 4mls since January 1    Can you imagine how dry that is.

And $5 billion?  Surely that could come from the 10 billion Rudd plans to spend.


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## Julia (20 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> Daisy, that would be an awesome plan!  We have had 4mls since January 1    Can you imagine how dry that is.
> 
> And $5 billion?  Surely that could come from the 10 billion Rudd plans to spend.



This just sounds so utterly sensible you almost know it won't happen.
And yes, a mere $5B, when you consider how much has already been wasted, would provide such a huge difference to the southern states.   Maybe S.A. people need to hassle your local members?


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## Bushman (20 February 2009)

This is a cracker. Media and real estate agents becrying 'ruthless property investors'. Takes a vulture to know a vulture? 

Err I would say if i was sitting on a burnt-out block of ash and dirt I would be fielding all offers. It is a market that has been beset by a 'black swan event' after all - prices must go down in the short to medium term. 


*From The Scum: *
RUTHLESS property investors are swooping on bushfire victims to buy their devastated land.

Disgusted real estate agents told the Herald Sun they were fielding calls from predators seeking cheap "scorched land for sale". 

Greedy landlords also have been caught trying to rent overpriced rooms to survivors who have lost everything.


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## daisy (21 February 2009)

Hi Prospector,
I have a friend in Brisbane and I try to visit at least twice a year. Not now, but over the past few years there was no rain there either. It was dreadful to see everything that used to be green now brown. Severe water restrictions with fines if a household used more than its allotted quota. While I stayed with my friend, I was so aware of the problem that I did not shower every day. (up here, because you get sticky, it's usually 2 per day ) Every time it rained at home, I would ring her to see if she got any. The answer was always no.  
That's my only experience of what it must be like for you. But with the threat of bushfires on top...
While I don't actually understand exactly what it is the article I posted above means regarding method, it does seem doable and with expertise backing.
 And I imagine it would have full support of all southern cities and up here, we do understand. We don't like seeing this water wasted when we know how hard it is elsewhere. Plus think of all the jobs it would create, now that the mining industry has left a great big black hole up here.


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## daisy (21 February 2009)

Bushman said:


> This is a cracker. Media and real estate agents becrying 'ruthless property investors'. Takes a vulture to know a vulture?
> 
> Err I would say if i was sitting on a burnt-out block of ash and dirt I would be fielding all offers. It is a market that has been beset by a 'black swan event' after all - prices must go down in the short to medium term.
> 
> ...




These kinds of events always bring out the best and the worst in people don't they?
On the one hand there's donations coming in from all over Oz, and on the other there's looters and someone making fraudulent claims.
Human nature never ceases to amaze me.


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## kincella (21 February 2009)

uh hmmm...I live 500 yards from the MIGHTY Yarra River....thats right,its right here in the middle of Melbourne...and it all runs out to sea....no dams, no nothing...not retrieve any of it to water all our parks and gardens...

Hello Brumby.....you and Tim Holden too busy doing photo sessions to notice....
its a mighty river...full to the brim...??? how many metres wide...but its big and full of water...
dont hold your breath....the state govt would rather build a desalination plant...obviously to keep their mates earning millions...desalination is the most expensive form of obtaining water....
they will not build a dam anywhere.....
but they will build a pipe and take the little bit of water left in the drought stricken areas from the local farmers.. surely you have seen the news on that one...
if it is a ridiculous answer.....you bet thats the way they will go....
anything sensible...no way


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## Calliope (21 February 2009)

The organisers expect a record turnout for tomorrow's national day of mourning for the fire victims.

It cannot be expected that any expressions of sorrow will ever exceed the "outpourings of grief" that followed the death of princess Di. We are grieving the death of over 200 people who died in tragic circumstances, over which most of them had no control.

The princess died as a result of getting into a car with a drunk driver.


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## daisy (21 February 2009)

I feel sick.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1009283/Anti-gay-protesters-to-picket-bushfire-memorial
*Anti-gay protesters to picket bushfire memorial*
Members of a controversial anti-gay church group from the US say they plan to picket outside a memorial service for the victims of the deadly Victorian bushfires.

The Westboro Baptist Church is notorious for protesting at the funerals of soldiers killed in Iraq, claiming their deaths are 'punishment' for America's tolerance of homosexuality.

The Kansas-based group, headed by fanatical pastor Fred Phelps, was banned from entering the UK earlier this week - and has now turned its attention to Australia.

In a statement, the church said: "The guilty Australians will not repent of their national sins of the flesh - (ie sodomy, divorce, fornication, adultery, etc) - even after God killed hundreds in the fires and cast them into hotter fire and brimstone in Hell. 

"Therefore we will picket them in their hypocritical grief." 

The statement, entitled "God hates Australia. Thank god for fiery deaths of hundreds", was posted on the group's website.


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## spooly74 (21 February 2009)

daisy said:


> I feel sick.
> 
> http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1009283/Anti-gay-protesters-to-picket-bushfire-memorial
> *Anti-gay protesters to picket bushfire memorial*




Unreal!
They plan to meet at Rod Laver Arena. I hope they get the **** kicked out of them.


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## MrBurns (21 February 2009)

spooly74 said:


> Unreal!
> They plan to meet at Rod Laver Arena. I hope they get the **** kicked out of them.





I think there's more than a fair chance of that happening, the police will take steps the stop this because everyone knows what will happen. I might get a deckchair and a sandwich and go watch. Nice day out.


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## daisy (21 February 2009)

This was lost.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/2581996/Brunos-Art-Sculpture-Garden


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## Smurf1976 (21 February 2009)

kincella said:


> uh hmmm...I live 500 yards from the MIGHTY Yarra River....thats right,its right here in the middle of Melbourne...and it all runs out to sea....no dams, no nothing...not retrieve any of it to water all our parks and gardens...
> ...
> 
> they will not build a dam anywhere...



Dams are to the greens what unions are to the Liberals, they would never be in favour of them no matter how strong the argument.

It was understood very well by dam building authorities in Australia 50 years ago (literally) that the public will welcome mass scale environmental destruction to build roads, cities and just about anything else. Except dams. Try building a dam and that's when all the protesters turn up.

The first environmental opposition to building a dam in Australia that I'm aware of was in the 1930's. That dam was built and is still there today. By the 1980's, the green vote was sufficiently important that dam construction all but ceased Australia wide. 

Whilst a certain very well known (but incorrectly named by almost everyone) hydro-electric dam in Tasmania was the high profile test case, the results have been national. Same in Brisbane, Melbourne and just about everywhere else. Expansion of large scale water infrastructure effectively ceased in the 70's and 80's and now we're paying the price for not also halting population and economic growth at the same time.


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## Smurf1976 (21 February 2009)

numbercruncher said:


> Im certain heads are going to roll in this royal commission .....
> 
> 
> 
> http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/754565/city-firies-banned-from-bushfires



That's ridiculous.

NSW, SA and Tas have sent an assortment of equipment, fire fighters, forestry workers and others with relevant fire fighting experience to Vic to help out. And you're telling me there are fire engines and professional fire fighters right there in Melbourne sitting around doing nothing? 

Don't misunderstand me, I have no problem whatsoever with my state govt Fire Levy being used to help the situation in another state. No problem with that whatosever - it's one country after all. But I think the people of Victoria especially, plus the other states that have sent people in to help, deserve an explanation as to why on earth they aren't using the people and equipment already sitting there in Melbourne. 

I'm no expert on Victoria's geography apart from a couple of regions. But I'd be pretty confident that fire engines and fire fighters based in Melbourne could have got to the fires a lot more quickly than those from Sydney, Adelaide or Hobart (or regional areas of those states with the possible exception of southern parts of NSW). 

Surely this can't be true? Heads certainly ought to roll if it is.


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## Calliope (21 February 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> The first environmental opposition to building a dam in Australia that I'm aware of was in the 1930's. That dam was built and is still there today. By the 1980's, the green vote was sufficiently important that dam construction all but ceased Australia wide.
> 
> Whilst a certain very well known (but incorrectly named by almost everyone) hydro-electric dam in Tasmania was the high profile test case, the results have been national. Same in Brisbane, Melbourne and just about everywhere else. Expansion of large scale water infrastructure effectively ceased in the 70's and 80's and now we're paying the price for not also halting population and economic growth at the same time.




In SE Qld the Beatty government followed  by the Bligh Government has pulled every trick in the book to avoid building a dam. They have spent millions on superstructure to recycle water which the public is reluctant to have put in the dams. 

They have spent millions on electrolysis plants which are unusable because essential components are rusting up.

They have spent millions on a network of pipes connecting all the dams so so that Brisbane can access other people's water. It's supposed to work both ways, but I live on the Sunshine Coast where are dams are relatively small. To take our water is like a glutton taking a biscuit from baby. The baby will miss it, but it won't do the glutton much good. The crowning insult is that our water rates are increased to pay for it.

I know this may sound trivial to Southerners, but all this is happening so that Bligh will retain the Green preferences, which are her lifeline. She is a very cynical woman.


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## Smurf1976 (21 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> I know this may sound trivial to Southerners



It's not trivial when you end up without enough water and the consequent water restrictions, dead gardens, fire hazards, structural damage to houses and so on. All that's doing quite a bit of damage to the environment too, by the way, especially when it comes to building damage.

I don't have a link or official reference for this, so you'll have to take my word for it or ignore me on this one. But one forecast I'm aware of puts the chances of an El Niño at around 60% for next Summer. Typically, an El Niño brings drought to Australia, something we're totally unprepared for in the southern parts of the country with the place already looking like a desert, water storage at low levels and so on. 

Those areas that didn't burn this year could well end up burning next year - we need to do a LOT of fire reduction burning THIS coming Autumn, Winter and Spring when it can be done safely rather than waiting for another disastrous fire like has just happened in Vic. 

Wake up people, this is a serious situation that requires clear thinking and urgent ACTION. Forget the inquiries, focus groups, steering committees and all the rest. Just get on with it and clear the fire hazards. We've got fire brigades, Parks and Wildlife services, local government, forestry companies and others who would be able to work out what to do if given orders to do so. And if need be, there's the Army, volunteers and a rising number of unemployed people who could help get it done.

Or are we going to be sitting here lamenting the losses from the next fire disaster in 2010, 2011 or whenever it comes? I hope not.


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## Julia (21 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> In SE Qld the Beatty government followed  by the Bligh Government has pulled every trick in the book to avoid building a dam. They have spent millions on superstructure to recycle water which the public is reluctant to have put in the dams.



What about Traveston?  Both Beattie and Bligh were determined to go ahead with this, but have since succumbed to Greens pressure. 



> They have spent millions on electrolysis plants which are unusable because essential components are rusting up.
> 
> They have spent millions on a network of pipes connecting all the dams so so that Brisbane can access other people's water. It's supposed to work both ways, but I live on the Sunshine Coast where are dams are relatively small. To take our water is like a glutton taking a biscuit from baby. The baby will miss it, but it won't do the glutton much good. The crowning insult is that our water rates are increased to pay for it.



Yes, this is the sort of shocking mismanagement that should see Bligh & Co thrown out.  But I expect they will be re-elected, so uninspiring is the Springborg opposition.




Smurf1976 said:


> It's not trivial when you end up without enough water and the consequent water restrictions, dead gardens, fire hazards, structural damage to houses and so on. All that's doing quite a bit of damage to the environment too, by the way, especially when it comes to building damage.
> 
> I don't have a link or official reference for this, so you'll have to take my word for it or ignore me on this one. But one forecast I'm aware of puts the chances of an El Niño at around 60% for next Summer.



Smurf I don't think you have to persuade anyone on this forum as to the logic  of your comments.  And quite apart from the hazards you describe above,
in the 21st century people should not have to let their gardens die and be restricted to short showers because successive governments have failed to build the necessary infrastructure.


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## Calliope (22 February 2009)

I went to bed last night thinking of John Brumby's statement re today's memorial service. He said that this is a great opportunity for all Australians to come together.

Yes, I thought , this could work. States will come together and in a spirit of cooperation we will drop our parochial attitudes and start thinking like Australians. We will work together and solve the country's big problems;

Our water problems,
Our bushfire problems,
Our infrastructure problems,
Our health problems
Our education problems, and all those other issues held back by State bickering.

 And then I woke up.

Sadly, organised mournings are like organised talkfests. They make us feel good for a while. But it soon wears off


----------



## MrBurns (22 February 2009)

Day of mourning  - I bet all those survivors living in tents wished it was a day of "get me back into a house" KRudd grandstanding as usual - was there a day of mourning for the Bali victims ?


----------



## Prospector (22 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Day of mourning  - I bet all those survivors living in tents wished it was a day of "get me back into a house" KRudd grandstanding as usual - was there a day of mourning for the Bali victims ?




The day of mourning for Bali victims is repeated every year in Bali.  There was also a service in Adelaide today, just up from where I live.  So I went for a wander, I reckon maybe 100 people were there?

I am sad for all of these people but I just do not feel the need to share a grieving memorial with them.


----------



## MrBurns (22 February 2009)

Prospector said:


> The day of mourning for Bali victims is repeated every year in Bali.  There was also a service in Adelaide today, just up from where I live.  So I went for a wander, I reckon maybe 100 people were there?
> 
> I am sad for all of these people but I just do not feel the need to share a grieving memorial with them.




Me either, I reckon a service for the locals where the tent city is in Yea would have been more appropriate.

A National day of Mourning is just over the top, these people would have been remembered at every church service in Australia , there was no need for this


----------



## kincella (22 February 2009)

more trouble with fires in the Warburton area expected tomorrow..Mon..I would think the Wilson Prom fires are still a problem..and any others still going
wonder if its too early for anyone to do anything any different from 2 weeks ago ?
although we have all these experts from overseas now...will people wait till the last minute again....


----------



## Calliope (22 February 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Me either, I reckon a service for the locals where the tent city is in Yea would have been more appropriate.
> 
> A National day of Mourning is just over the top, these people would have been remembered at every church service in Australia , there was no need for this




It was encouraging to see that the fire ravaged communities preferred to attend local services where they could count on the support of their friends, neighbours and fellow victims rather than be transported to Rudd's extravaganza in Melbourne.


----------



## MrBurns (23 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> It was encouraging to see that the fire ravaged communities preferred to attend local services where they could count on the support of their friends, neighbours and fellow victims rather than be transported to Rudd's extravaganza in Melbourne.




Yes I think that shows that KRudd had the public mood wrong, they certainly grieve but not to the point of supporting this spectacle - Telstra Dome (or is it Vodaphone) was only half full.


----------



## Bushman (23 February 2009)

Warburton is being evacuated with up to 70% of residents fleeing the town. 

Sadly this most horrid of bushfire seasons still has some way to go. Spare a thought today for the CFA workers who will be risking life and limb battling this blaze. Also the residents who will be facing the uncertainty of property loss. 

Makes me very sad to see our once beautiful garden-state reduced to a smouldering ruin.


----------



## MrBurns (23 February 2009)

Bushman said:


> Warburton is being evacuated with up to 70% of residents fleeing the town.
> 
> Sadly this most horrid of bushfire seasons still has some way to go. Spare a thought today for the CFA workers who will be risking life and limb battling this blaze. Also the residents who will be facing the uncertainty of property loss.
> 
> Makes me very sad to see our once beautiful garden-state reduced to a smouldering ruin.




It hasnt rained in 9 weeks, they all should go somewhere else for the day if possible.


----------



## numbercruncher (23 February 2009)

Bushman said:


> Warburton is being evacuated with up to 70% of residents fleeing the town.
> 
> Sadly this most horrid of bushfire seasons still has some way to go. Spare a thought today for the CFA workers who will be risking life and limb battling this blaze. Also the residents who will be facing the uncertainty of property loss.
> 
> Makes me very sad to see our once beautiful garden-state reduced to a smouldering ruin.





And spare a thought for the highly trained professional firefighters of the metropolitan fire brigade sitting in their air-conditioned stations praying for the opportunity to fight the good fight.

crazy stuff.


----------



## Calliope (24 February 2009)

Letters. The Australian Today


> VICTORIAN Country Fire Authority volunteers must be cringing after Kevin Rudd’s speech at the memorial service for the bushfire victims ("PM declares ‘sacred day’ for the dead”, 23/2). “Courage is a firefighter standing before the gates of hell unflinching, unyielding, with eyes of steel, saying, ‘Here I stand, I can do no other’,” he said.
> 
> Rural Fire Service/CFA policy was reversed a decade ago with the dumping of the Gallipoli Syndrome, which I criticised in these pages in 1998. Many volunteers had died under this strategy. The first priority now is firefighter safety. Firefighters are not permitted to fight raging fire fronts. Rudd desperately needs a speechwriter who can tell the difference between fine rhetoric and excruciating kitsch.
> Frank Campbell
> (former Australian editor of international Wildfire magazine)


----------



## IFocus (24 February 2009)

Calliope said:


> Letters. The Australian Today




Yes though it was pretty dumb the lack of deaths among the CFA is in such conditions is a credit to the training or tactics used stand and dying no longer a part of the procedure.


----------



## numbercruncher (25 February 2009)

Not lookin good ....



> Fire crews on Wednesday will work to consolidate containment lines around existing bushfires ahead of what's expected to be the worst fire day since Black Saturday.
> 
> With temperatures expected to soar to 38 degrees celsius and powered by strong and changing winds, every effort is being made to prepare for another horror day on Friday, Victoria's Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE) said.




http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/756771/vic-firefighters-dig-in-as-heat-looms


----------



## Julia (28 February 2009)

Amongst Mr Rudd's promises at the time of the fires was a grant of $5000 to any tradesperson who had lost their tools.  This seems a more than reasonable amount.  Why, e.g. would a painter need $5000 of tools?

Today on the radio there was an interview with some bloke who has set up a "Tools for Tradies" fund appeal because "the $5000 from the government (read taxpayer, please) is not enough".

The question that occurred to me is why wouldn't any responsible tradesman have insurance to cover loss of work related tools, vehicle etc?

If your house burns down tomorrow, unrelated to any bush fire, do you expect the taxpayer to replace your tools?

I'm thinking maybe we should have a thread on why half our society - who take responsibility for insuring themselves against potential loss or disaster - continually seem to be also having to take responsibility for funding the other half who ignore their responsibilities.


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## MrBurns (28 February 2009)

Julia said:


> Amongst Mr Rudd's promises at the time of the fires was a grant of $5000 to any tradesperson who had lost their tools.  This seems a more than reasonable amount.  Why, e.g. would a painter need $5000 of tools?
> 
> Today on the radio there was an interview with some bloke who has set up a "Tools for Tradies" fund appeal because "the $5000 from the government (read taxpayer, please) is not enough".
> 
> ...




Unfortunately this sort of disaster will bring out scammers too.

Not having insurance is not taking reponsibility for whats yours but in this environment Rudd will do whatever it takes to enhance his popularity.

Thats the political reality.


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## Calliope (1 March 2009)

Julia,

The numbers of those who have no household insurance is estimated to be about one in four. Many of those who do have insurance are under-insured. The numbers of those driving uninsured and/or unregistered vehicles is also alarming. These numbers have nothing to do with the economic downturn.

It is all part of the mindset of not having to accept responsibility for your own actions.

Governments have cynically reached the conclusion that looking after this demographic is the key to popularity ratings. Hence Mr Rudd's handout policy is to look after the improvident at the expense of the provident.


----------



## Prospector (1 March 2009)

I got into a sh*te load of trouble on a property forum when I suggested that people needed to insure themselves and take responsibility for their personal property, and that the donated funds shouldnt be used to build houses for uninsured people.  Saying that if you cant afford Insurance then you cant afford to buy a house.  Also, for those with mortgages, Insurance is supposed to be compulsory for houses under a mortgage.

Boy, some of the PM's and posts I received accused me of being a heartless, well, female dog!    Noice!


----------



## Calliope (1 March 2009)

[







> *Fires leave Brumby no cover*
> 
> Article from: Sunday Herald
> March 01, 2009 12:00am*
> ...




In Baillieu's case as,  Prospector has illustrated, it is better to be regarded as gutless rather than heartless.


----------



## MrBurns (1 March 2009)

> So far it's spent about $50 million on immediate relief and basic comforts for the dispossessed,




Where are they staying .......the Hilton ?


----------



## Prospector (1 March 2009)

Interesting time indeed for Mr Brumby.  If he decides to help out the uninsured, there will be a national backlash, there will certainly be one here in SA.  And for those who have been insured and forked out thousands of dollars for premiums along the way.

I think the opposition is sitting pretty; whatever Brumby decides to do he can determine what the majority electorate thinks about it, and go for all he is worth.

$50million isn't that much to spend I guess; so many people without homes - basic necessary items, clothing etc etc.  But as for Rudd's money to go to tradies who lost their tools - wt is that!  Oh well, shall just go cancel our business insurance too, save us around $1200 a year.  That is what business interruption insurance is all about.



Calliope said:


> In Baillieu's case as,  Prospector has illustrated, it is better to be regarded as gutless rather than heartless.



 Or stupid maybe!

This pandering to the electorate is just getting ridiculous - oh well, next time we have a fire in our house, instead of just getting down and dealing with Insurance companies I will have my hand outstretched to Mr Rudd thankyou!


----------



## MrBurns (1 March 2009)

It is a problem for Brumby , how to give away 10's of millions to grab votes without making it look obvious, he'll probably call the expert on that one for advice, Rudd.


----------



## sam76 (1 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> It is a problem for Brumby , how to give away 10's of millions to grab votes without making it look obvious, he'll probably call the expert on that one for advice, Rudd.




lol yeah, kate blanchett!


----------



## Prospector (1 March 2009)

sam76 said:


> lol yeah, kate blanchett!




Well, she is Queen Elizabeth I isn't she?


----------



## kincella (2 March 2009)

anyone else get the impression...they are playing down the latest fire threat...winds of 150kph....surrounded by 4 massive fires....big wind changes...
just wondering, am in the inner suburbs...some of those fires are only about 60klms away...so the fires could come right into the city...daylesford, and kilmore fires are north..with northerly winds....
like brumby said after black sat fires...need to evacuate the whole state...but thats impossible.......
my plan to go to the river is not on if winds 150kph.....
the fire weather professor said as much this morning....that they dont want us to panic.....


----------



## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

kincella said:


> anyone else get the impression...they are playing down the latest fire threat...winds of 150kph....surrounded by 4 massive fires....big wind changes...
> just wondering, am in the inner suburbs...some of those fires are only about 60klms away...so the fires could come right into the city...daylesford, and kilmore fires are north..with northerly winds....
> like brumby said after black sat fires...need to evacuate the whole state...but thats impossible.......
> my plan to go to the river is not on if winds 150kph.....
> the fire weather professor said as much this morning....that they dont want us to panic.....




Why dont they just say *GET OUT* This pussyfooting around "get your fire plan ready" what the F*(* does that mean after the & 7th Feb.

Cant evacuate the whole state, no need too but anyone that is at risk should leave for the day, dont want to panic people ? so just let them burn ?

This shows the state Govt for what it really is, small time admin with no real drive or brainpower.


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## kincella (2 March 2009)

some who survived those fires said they had nowhere to go....ok drive the car down to a less timbered area....not sure where you go with winds of 150kph though ??? assuming you have nowhere else to stay but in the car

those firebugs will be out there tonight again...huge winds expected...
see this firebug out last Fri..when more fires were expected...did you know firebugs light almost as many fires as lightening strikes

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-...suspicious-melbourne-fires-20090302-8lu6.html


----------



## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

kincella said:


> some who survived those fires said they had nowhere to go....ok drive the car down to a less timbered area....not sure where you go with winds of 150kph though ??? assuming you have nowhere else to stay but in the car
> 
> those firebugs will be out there tonight again...huge winds expected...
> see this firebug out last Fri..when more fires were expected...did you know firebugs light almost as many fires as lightening strikes
> ...




Yes there's some sick bastards out there.

There will have to be a redical rethink on all this once things settle down if the Royal Commission just comes up with the same lame conclusions I'll be very disappointed.

What this needs is a radical rethink outside the square, before rebuilding starts in earnest.


----------



## Prospector (2 March 2009)

I wonder why they expect tomorrow to be so bad in Victoria.  We usually get the weather first and it is quite calm and cloudy here; and RAIN  expected overnight - our first since the 13th December.  I hope


----------



## kincella (2 March 2009)

yes I know rains expected in SA....but whats with the huge winds Melb/Vic is expecting.....???? where is that coming from...North winds then turn west 
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/


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## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

Prospector said:


> I wonder why they expect tomorrow to be so bad in Victoria.  We usually get the weather first and it is quite calm and cloudy here; and RAIN  expected overnight - our first since the 13th December.  I hope




There's fires already still going here and the wind is the problem not the temperature, those 150kph winds could turn the whole thing into another disaster, plus they're erring on the side of caution now.


----------



## Prospector (2 March 2009)

Those reports are for coastal areas.  Do you think it is a case, as our weather bureau does, of over-reacting soon after a major weather event has occurred?  

Not sure what the Vic Bureau is like but so many times in SA we get an unpredicted weather event; the Bureau merely end up merely describing it  (yeah, we know, we can look out our window too) because they missed predicting it and then the next time they overreact and it doesnt eventuate?

Hey Mr Burns, dead calm here.


----------



## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

Prospector said:


> Those reports are for coastal areas.  Do you think it is a case, as our weather bureau does, of over-reacting soon after a major weather event has occurred?
> 
> Not sure what the Vic Bureau is like but so many times in SA we get an unpredicted weather event; the Bureau merely end up merely describing it  (yeah, we know, we can look out our window too) because they missed predicting it and then the next time they overreact and it doesnt eventuate?
> 
> Hey Mr Burns, dead calm here.




Calm here too but that's about to change not sure where the hot air is coming from perhaps Rudd is paying us a visit.

Our Bereau's the same they spend all day , a full time job getting it wrong, they seem pretty sure about this one though.


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## kincella (2 March 2009)

last friday was a red alert...they said 36-38 and high winds of 50kph
I had a feeling it would not get that hot...since it was in the 20's all week...fri got to 32
50 kph winds were predicted with black sat....but its now 150kph...
I thought that was close to cyclonic wind speed....aka FNQ cyclones of 130kph plus
is anyone concerned in inner melb ?? or do you just think it will affect the outskirts....
water copters will not be able to go out to help...or fire spotter planes


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## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

kincella said:


> last friday was a red alert...they said 36-38 and high winds of 50kph
> I had a feeling it would not get that hot...since it was in the 20's all week...fri got to 32
> 50 kph winds were predicted with black sat....but its now 150kph...
> I thought that was close to cyclonic wind speed....aka FNQ cyclones of 130kph plus
> ...




Not concerned in inner Melbourne but I've a friend who lives in the hills who will be coming here to stay tomorrow night, they've been evacuate 3 times in 2 weeks.

Elvis the chopper went straight over our house twice last week, it's a freeking monster and sounds like something out of a sci fi movie.

Have to rethink the bush until the drought breaks (if)

Nest door neighbor has friends in Ringwood just an outer suburb but lots of trees, the Council make you provide a list of plants you want in your garden and they decide if you can or not.

After Feb 7th he said you couldn't hear yourself think around there for the din of the chainsaws, everyone thought stuff the Council, don't thing there will be any prosecutions somehow

BTW - insurance premiums will be horrific for everyone from here on, a house in the bush wil be almost uninsurable.


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## kincella (2 March 2009)

Hobart fires in 1967 were within 2 klms of the city.....imagine Hobart is no where near as big as Melb...but if it can happen there ????
39% winds of 110 etc
http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/fire2.htm


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## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

kincella said:


> Hobart fires in 1967 were within 2 klms of the city.....imagine Hobart is no where near as big as Melb...but if it can happen there ????
> 39% winds of 110 etc
> http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/fire2.htm




Oh ....it could get close but not inner city, that would be Hollywood disaster blockbuster movie stuff


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## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

Would you believe i just got an text from the Vic police warning about the weather conditions tonight and tomorrow, I thought they were going to ask me to turn my license in.


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## kincella (2 March 2009)

me too...so everyone in Vic to get a call ??? freaks me right out


----------



## Fleeta (2 March 2009)

I just got a text too, which is freaky when you consider how bad Black Saturday was yet no text then. What do they expect tomorrow to be??? Lets hope the weather predictions are wrong.


----------



## Prospector (2 March 2009)

Apparently they texted people in South Australia on the Friday before the Victoria fires, but at 11pm at night  but only to Telstra customers 

Guess us Optus people dont count, but at 11pm I am happy with that!


----------



## kincella (2 March 2009)

this text business in vic...is a new idea since black sat......maybe in SA they did it as par for the course..ie not a new idea for them
silly if its just telstra....someone ought to ask a radio jock...what about optus people....


----------



## Prospector (2 March 2009)

kincella said:


> this text business in vic...is a new idea since black sat......maybe in SA they did it as par for the course..ie not a new idea for them
> silly if its just telstra....someone ought to ask a radio jock...what about optus people....




Definately a first time; and yeah, one of the radio station's host was woken at 11pm so it has been on the airwaves a bit.  Silly though, are we going to evacuate Adelaide?


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## glenn_r (2 March 2009)

Us Optus customers received the warning at 3.30pm, but my 10 year old daughter called me after school quite upset about her SMS regarding the fire danger warning but after explaining the major risk is in the country not a city like ours, she was fine.

I believe it's the State Government closing the barn door after the horse has bolted or they have received a class action suit re: no warning prior to Black Saturday.


----------



## Prospector (2 March 2009)

glenn_r said:


> Us Optus customers received the warning at 3.30pm, but my 10 year old daughter called me after school quite upset about her SMS regarding the fire danger warning but after explaining the major risk is in the country not a city like ours, she was fine




Ah, that is a thought.  Imagine the reaction amongst all the children who all seem to have mobiles these days,  mass panic!


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## Trembling Hand (3 March 2009)

Its raining in Melbourne and 18 degrees! Was all the txt messages and gov warnings a joke?

Its bloody raining!!


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## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Its raining in Melbourne and 18 degrees! Was all the txt messages and gov warnings a joke?
> 
> Its bloody raining!!




Keystone cops, we needed the SMS's on the 7th Feb they seem to have got the wrong day.


----------



## Timmy (3 March 2009)

glenn_r said:


> I believe it's the State Government closing the barn door after the horse has bolted




Yep, agree with that.  Let's hope, though, it becomes standard for next bushfire season, and around the country.


----------



## Aussiejeff (3 March 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Its raining in Melbourne and 18 degrees! Was all the txt messages and gov warnings a joke?
> 
> Its bloody raining!!




Did April 1st come early????


----------



## Aussiejeff (3 March 2009)

Even as the radio media was coninuing to blurb horror warnings early today, the BoM had already downgraded the fire weather warning earlier this morning for Central and Northern Vic and had cancelled the severe weather (strong winds) warning as well for those districts. 

However, none of that was mentioned in any radio reports I heard between 5am-7am. Just more over-reaction and talk of "wind gusts to 120kph". 

I guess it makes for dramatic radio "reporting".

"The boy who cried wolf" is a term from my childhood days that springs to mind...

Have a nice day.


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## Aussiejeff (3 March 2009)

Here's a link to some more "fearsome" reporting...

http://www.theage.com.au/national/bushfires

Looks like fire has become the new media darling. Big business indeed.


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## Prospector (3 March 2009)

It was windy here in SA last night; up to 70kmh.  Last night at around 10pm they were saying that Victoria was going to experience Category 1 cyclone strength winds - this was on Foxtel who said they get their info from the Weather Bureau.

Rain, well, I think they need to get new modelling programmes.  We might get 5mls if lucky.  Hope I am wrong; the strong northerly winds overnight dried up any spots we got last night anyway.


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 March 2009)

OK to be fair on the poor buggers at BoM etc. The wind has picked up here a lot in the last hour and the temp is rising fast as well.

12 hours late, but better late than .........


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## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> OK to be fair on the poor buggers at BoM etc. The wind has picked up here a lot in the last hour and the temp is rising fast as well.
> 
> 12 hours late, but better late than .........




Yeah it's damn weird. temp increased with the wind, might have the makings one one hell of a storm later.


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## Prospector (3 March 2009)

That temperature rise happened in Adelaide too, except it happened at Midnight.  Quite cool at sleep time, as we had some showers; maybe around 20degrees.  Then 28 at midnight.  Much cooler now and a coupla heavy showers.


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## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

Prospector said:


> That temperature rise happened in Adelaide too, except it happened at Midnight.  Quite cool at sleep time, as we had some showers; maybe around 20degrees.  Then 28 at midnight.  Much cooler now and a coupla heavy showers.




Damn Labor Govt, never had weather like this under the Libs


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## Sandgroper31 (7 March 2009)

Back in 1926 and again in 1939 the town of Noojee in Victoria Australia was destroyed by fire and as a small boy I went to a work camp there with my father in the 1950s. He was a forestry officer and the first thing he did when we arrived was to take me to a refuge approximately a metre underground. He told me that if ever I was not in his company and a fire was approaching I was to go to the refuge.

These days an excavator could dig such a refuge in about half an hour. Brick retaining walls and a steel roof to support the metre of earth would finish the job. Entry was by way of a L shaped corridor descending about a metre below ground. Heavy hessian curtains which were soaked in a trough of water inside the refuge prevent smoke penetrating.

I wonder how such a simple and effective solution was totally abandoned. Was it because arrogance has crept into the CFA since those years back in the 1950s? The oldies didn't have many luxuries but developed the most appropriate ways of surviving in the Australian bush. The bunker I saw was not unique and so I wonder why the practice of providing safety through a bunker died out. Did the bureaucrats of the CFA develop an attitude that the advent of high tech fire engines and water bombers made the simple and low cost bunker obsolete? 

A tragedy of this magnitude in this age is an absolute outrage. Whatever the reason behind the abandonment of bunkers I hope that the Victorian royal commission into the fires will issue a recommendation that every rural property be required to have one.

I have read rural lifestyle magazines that describe techniques that provide effective protection. One of these was steel pipe reticulation systems on top of the house powered by water pumps driven with a small engine sourced from a swimming pool or something similar are a pretty effective method of fire protection.

Then there must be a fall back plan in case the fire overwhelms these residence protection strategies. The underground bunker well away from anything combustible is the best plan and it amazes me that their use hasn't been advocated by those responsible for fire safety. Even the people who constructed an above ground refuge or sat the fire out in an airconditioned car survived so it's obvious that bunkers would have saved many lives in the recent fires which have plagued the Australian bushland particularly in the past two decades while the old timers strategies have been forgotten.


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## Bushman (12 March 2009)

LOL; moral hazard extends to uninsured home owners! 


Bushfire victims to get $50k to rebuildSimon Mossman
March 12, 2009 - 5:35PM 
Bushfire survivors whose homes were lost or badly damaged in the deadly Black Saturday disaster will receive $50,000 each to kickstart their rebuilding process.

In the first significant distribution of the more than $236 million donated in response to the February 7 bushfires, Victorian Bushfire Appeal Fund chairman John Landy on Thursday announced the allocation of more than $130 million.


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## Julia (12 March 2009)

Well, I guess the money has to be given out to the victims somehow.

Such an arrangement, however, raises the question with regard to the uninsured:  if they have no insurance payout, $50,000 isn't going to go far towards building another house.


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## Prospector (12 March 2009)

That distribution is fine if it goes to everyone who lost their home.  It is certainly better than nothing, which is what happens if your house randomly burns down and you have no Insurance.


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## MrBurns (12 March 2009)

I'd say a fair share of those houses were little more than shacks, $50,000 is a great improvement on what some of them had and no insurence needed.

Makes me feel really good about my contribution


----------



## badger41 (12 March 2009)

Great to see an even distribution of aid to the insured and uninsured, instead of favouring the latter. And $50K will be plenty for the uninsured to purchase a new caravan to live in while rebuilding, if they choose to do so (hopefully insuring their next home).


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## MrBurns (12 March 2009)

badger41 said:


> Great to see an even distribution of aid to the insured and uninsured, instead of favouring the latter. And $50K will be plenty for the uninsured to purchase a new caravan to live in while rebuilding, if they choose to do so (hopefully insuring their next home).




The premiums will be over the top, unless they make it compulsary there will be less insured not more.


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## Calliope (12 March 2009)

badger41 said:


> Great to see an even distribution of aid to the insured and uninsured, instead of favouring the latter. And $50K will be plenty for the uninsured to purchase a new caravan to live in while rebuilding, if they choose to do so (hopefully insuring their next home).




I saw Brumby on the news tonight say that they are considering more payments to the uninsured, the under-insured and large families. 

It is a travesty that a political party should be able to call the shots on the distribution of money donated by the public.


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## Julia (12 March 2009)

If the uninsured and under-insured do get more than those who were responsibly insured, I reckon the appeal for the next Great Disaster won't be too well subscribed.


----------



## GumbyLearner (13 March 2009)

Julia said:


> If the uninsured and under-insured do get more than those who were responsibly insured, I reckon the appeal for the next Great Disaster won't be too well subscribed.




I have relatives in the Dandenongs. For the past 2 years a relative of mine has been requesting the local council to do something about an adjacent property and the over-grown tree-line that has become a potential fire hazard. She always pays home and contents and has so for the past few decades. Most people within her local community are quite pro-active and educated since many in the area perished and many properties were destroyed during Ash Wednesday.

Education is the key and I think councils need to devolve some of their functions to local citizens, analogous to a neighborhood watch system in order to ensure the safe and responsible removal of fallen trees and out-of-control foilage. At the same time the community should have a greater input and be able to alert the local municipal authorities when hazardous conditions or rate-payer apathy endangers the community as a whole. Public participation is paramount to confront the next bushfire. If they can't involve and inform the people who live in bushfire prone areas and include them as an integral part of any Royal Commissions recommendations then the bureaucrats will have failed the people of Victoria on this one.


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## MrBurns (31 March 2009)

I know it's old news but if the Govt can build the Frankston bypass in such as hurry, and toll free, why couldnt they protect those living in fire prone areas ?

Hundreds of lives at stake in one instance , 20 minutes travelling time saved in another.


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## Happy (1 April 2009)

Julia said:


> If the uninsured and under-insured do get more than those who were responsibly insured, I reckon the appeal for the next Great Disaster won't be too well subscribed.




I have made donation, but I did not consider that it could be divided unevenly to penalise those who were insured.

Well, next time I am out, sorry.


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## kincella (12 May 2009)

some absolutely damning  information coming out now from the Bushfires Royal Commission
experts sitting inside an office in the heart of Melbourne.....unbelievable...

http://www.theage.com.au/national/kinglake-resident-fled-before-bushfire-hit-town-20090512-b13x.html
http://www.theage.com.au/national/kinglake-resident-fled-before-bushfire-hit-town-20090512-b13x.html


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## So_Cynical (12 May 2009)

kincella said:


> some absolutely damning  information coming out now from the Bushfires Royal Commission
> experts sitting inside an office in the heart of Melbourne.....unbelievable...
> 
> http://www.theage.com.au/national/kinglake-resident-fled-before-bushfire-hit-town-20090512-b13x.html
> http://www.theage.com.au/national/kinglake-resident-fled-before-bushfire-hit-town-20090512-b13x.html




Also some pretty stupid stuff coming out...some legal woman on TV tonight saying that warnings 
like "worst ever" (referring to the fire danger rating) are to general and common. 

I would think that "worst ever" as a description of conditions on that day would be enough for 
most people...i mean how does worst ever mean anything other than its as bad as its ever been..
10 on the Richter scale.


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## kincella (21 May 2009)

apart from NO Warnings...and why did so many people expect/ believe the local CFA would issue a warning....and the emergency calls went unanswered, or were diverted to Centrelink (which by the way is closed on Saturday) or diverted back to a CFA number when no one was there....
an absolutley disgraceful shambles all of this....
and if you just happen to be in an area in future....and tossing around to stay or go....mild day and a little grass fire on the ground, you may have a chance....expect winds of 50-60kph....just go, and go early in the day..
a lot of those places there is only one road  to get in or out....
people were trapped, trees across the road....

the fire raged at 120 kph, snapped off trees at 3-4 metres above the ground, equivalent to 1500 Hiroshima bombs, spotted 35 klms in front of the fire....

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25517177-29277,00.html


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## Soft Dough (21 May 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I know it's old news but if the Govt can build the Frankston bypass in such as hurry, and toll free, why couldnt they protect those living in fire prone areas ?
> 
> Hundreds of lives at stake in one instance , 20 minutes travelling time saved in another.




Because they need greenie preferences and support in the senate and hence will not allow backburning. ( Controlled backburning, if greenies had half a brain, actually protects the environment, and reduces emissions as opposed to wildfires )


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## MrBurns (24 June 2009)

Time to bump this thread, what's coming out of the inquest is frightening and infuriating, those people had no chance and the CFA were totally inadequate as were the emergency services, it's just bloody heart wrenching to hear the stories.


----------



## Happy (24 June 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Time to bump this thread, what's coming out of the inquest is frightening and infuriating, those people had no chance and *the CFA were totally inadequate as were the emergency services*, it's just bloody heart wrenching to hear the stories.





When I think about emergency services I am pretty sure that if we have more than handful of places to attend at any time there is not enough services.

Remember while ago when the same drug addicts in Cabramatta were revived four or more times a day, while other people died as there were not enough ambulance services to arrive within 10 or 15 minutes to attend the heart attack victim, not to mention that under 5 minutes would be preferable.

So lets not be under illusion that if disaster strikes we will be helped in a heartbeat.

This is why so important to have shelter, fireproof house and above all limited fuel preferably to ZERO within 50 metres of property.


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## MrBurns (24 June 2009)

Happy said:


> So lets not be under illusion that if disaster strikes we will be helped in a heartbeat.
> This is why so important to have shelter, fireproof house and above all limited fuel preferably to ZERO within 50 metres of property.




True but the CFA didn't know some fires existed until the next day and made no predictons of the path of some even though they were told by some of their own staff no warnings were issued.

80% of 000 calls went unanswered, someone was screaming down the phone that the fire was almost on them and the operator said, "well we are very busy and they were left on hold"


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## Tink (24 June 2009)

I agree Mr Burns, its very sad..

I do think there wasnt enough warning for these people, some had 6 minutes to get out..

These suburbs used to be classified as country, but have now become more suburban


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## kincella (24 June 2009)

as someone said yesterday..our fire season is from Nov to Mar....townies can probably leave at short notice, but what about the farmers....whith animals under their care....I  care about the animals ....locked up with no means of escape.....most people have a choice....except the elderly and disabled...

I wonder how many would consider underground bunkers or some other form of protection for the animals....it seems its just not feasible...

but hey...can we eliminate the fire bugs or are there too many of them....

wonder how many people next Feb...will stay when there are fire weather warnings 4 days earlier...
and we will not bother to discuss what was happening in the city office...where all the fire experts were that day....some did not even turn up...it seems so ridiculous
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr


----------



## MrBurns (24 June 2009)

Let's hope the enquiry findings don't pull any punches.......


----------



## kincella (24 June 2009)

was it 6 years ago ..the massive Alpine fires that burnt about 1 million or more acres....it raged through the National Parks...but all of those people living on the edge of the parks copped it....whole herds of cattle and horses wiped out....cows screaming in pain as they ran burning alive....
they had an inquiry....but as most have said....there was nothing done about  it....zilch zit....
not one followed up to see how they could save any lives....forget the animals...or make any improvements.....so those people wait for another fire to wipe them out again
have a cousin whose land backs onto same national park....he rode his horse through the park to inspect the fire trail..before the fires...to see if they had been maintained...so the fire trucks could get in in need be.....no...all overgrown, trees fallen onto the tracks....had been neglected 20 years...huge build up of rubbish on the ground...
when the fire did come... Dse said they could not go off the bitumen road to help....
he and his 80 year old mother saved the house and the horses...she said it was 20 minutes before the fire storm passed over them.....I was horrified he allowed his mum to travel up there to help him....
the neighbours were all frantically looking out for their own stock and homes...

Canberra was the only one...they do not grow pine trees next door to the suburbs anymore.... hello...
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr


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## sam76 (24 June 2009)

Interesting reading....


http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/documents/1st_statement_russel_rees.pdf

http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/documents/2nd_statement_russel_rees.pdf


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## GumbyLearner (24 June 2009)

MrBurns said:


> True but the CFA didn't know some fires existed until the next day and made no predictons of the path of some even though they were told by some of their own staff no warnings were issued.
> 
> 80% of 000 calls went unanswered, someone was screaming down the phone that the fire was almost on them and the operator said, "well we are very busy and they were left on hold"




I agree Mr Burns an absolutely terrible shame. Ambulance services being tied up to assist rave-party goers at Calder Park. I cannot remember it being mentioned in the papers while people were being consumed by the bushfires.

It wasn't long ago that there were so many dying dialing 000, due to the incompetence of the Kennett Government and the reaction times of a flawed system. It had a terrible impact statewide. 

Remember the Metropolitan Ambulance Service Royal Commission in Victoria?

It makes me wonder what essential government services should be privatised? And at what cost to human life?


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## MrBurns (24 June 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> It makes me wonder want essential government services should be privatised. And at what cost to human life?




It's round the wrong way.
They should buy all the services back and privatise the Govt, pay on performance.


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## GumbyLearner (24 June 2009)

MrBurns said:


> It's round the wrong way.
> They should buy all the services back and privatise the Govt, pay on performance.




Human life


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## sam76 (10 April 2010)

Just for interest, here is how it all ended up.


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## Smurf1976 (3 January 2013)

Tomorrow:

Adelaide 44 and sunny. 
Melbourne 41, dry and windy. 
Hobart 39 and windy.

In other words, if a fire breaks out in SA, Vic or Tas then it's going to be very difficult to control and this should be obvious to everyone.

It was 34 today in Tas and windy. There are fires burning in various parts of the state right now. And yet once again I've seen someone throw a cigarette butt out the window in a bush environment. What part of the words "Total Fire Ban" do these clowns not understand? 

Suffice to say that I do not condone road rage but I think they got the message.


----------



## MrBurns (3 January 2013)

Smurf1976 said:


> Tomorrow:
> 
> Adelaide 44 and sunny.
> Melbourne 41, dry and windy.
> ...




The firebugs will be out tomorrow


----------



## Logique (4 January 2013)

Although after 34 pages there probably isn't anything that hasn't been already said..

If more people understood how bushfire management is done in SE Australia, it would be a national scandal, and there would be demands for change. 

Waste, inefficiency, political cowardice (all parties, and local Councils), surreptitious undermining of fuel management programs, continual undermining of budgets, and rank exploitation of volunteers.

Nothing will change until the volunteer movement draws a line in the sand, stops acting as mere cannon fodder, and demands a real say in policy.  Fire management depends on volunteers, but they are ignored on the big policy issues.

Failing this, bushfires will go on being just a seasonal political nuisance to city based decision makers, who think a monster helicopter or two gets them off the hook. Which it mostly does, more's the pity.

I very much understand Kincella's post #670 above.


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## Tink (10 February 2014)

Five years since Black Saturday, and Victoria has 80 fires burning and 15 emergency warnings in place, though I think some have been downgraded. 
Thankfully no lives lost.

It was a horrible day yesterday, windy and dry, no hope for those firefighters.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/vi...e-black-saturday/story-fnl2cq7o-1226821877702 
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/vi...ory-fnl2cq7o-1226821646947?from=trendinglinks


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## Smurf1976 (10 February 2014)

It's not a good situation in Victoria at the moment that's for sure. Let's just hope that no lives are lost and that the fires can be put out reasonably soon.

I'm not sure if this happened in Vic or not, but in Tas we had 130 km/h wind in Hobart yesterday and that has itself done a bit of damage with a few roofs coming off, trees down, power lines down etc. If they're getting anything like that in Vic then it's going to make the fires incredibly difficult to deal with.

I'll also mention that in Vic there's a fire at the Morwell coal mine which isn't a good situation. To my understanding that's coal on fire in the mine, in addition to the bush fires nearby. The nearby Hazelwood power station, which uses coal from the mine, is still operating but at greatly reduced capacity. Production is running at around 230MW versus 1680MW in full production. There is no immediate threat to power supply in Vic however since demand is relatively low today given the milder weather and power is also being supplied from SA and Tas.There are reports of 3 large explosions near the mine and power station - I'm not sure if they involved any critical infrastructure or if it was just something minor like a few gas bottles etc blowing up. 

What's really needed is a decent dumping of rain to put all the fires out.....


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## Smurf1976 (9 March 2014)

The coal mine is still on fire a month later and locals are apparently getting rather fed up with being suffocated by the smoke. 

What alarms me though is that apparently good progress is being made in fighting the fire using compressed foam to extinguish the fire. Now that's a good thing in itself, but apparently the ACT and Tasmania are the only two places that have the equipment to do it. And it's only $750,000 to buy (complete with truck) which is pretty trivial in the overall context.

Once again I'm thinking that we need to have a national approach to the ongoing threat of fire in this country and acquire the full range of equipment that we ought to have in order to best deal with fires as they occur. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I have the impression that fire fighters are battling not only fires, but also not having all the equipment etc that could be used to help.


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## Tink (3 January 2015)

The bushfires have started here in Vic, and in S.A.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-03/tough-conditions-expected-for-firefighters-in-sa-vic/5998194

We have an average of 43 for the state and a total fire ban.

It sickens me when I hear of people being arrested for lighting fires
- a 40 yr old woman, and a 17 yr old.
What is wrong with these people.


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## Smurf1976 (3 January 2015)

Arson is a crime I really don't understand. I mean, I can understand someone stealing or something like that, they're directly gaining something out of it. But arson is a total loss for all concerned.

Unusually warm here in Tas today too, hot air from Vic being blown down by a northerly wind. A couple of minor fires apparently but nothing serious at this stage and the wind seems to have swung around and is coming from the south now so it's cooling down already. 

Let's hope everyone in Vic and SA is OK.


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## noco (3 January 2015)

I learned many years ago, the cold air sweeping south east from the Himalayas to Australia are some how connected with the bush fires in the south  east of Australia to create the monsoon rains in the the northern part of Australia.
Whether it is fact I have never really been able to prove it.


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## Calliope (3 January 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Arson is a crime I really don't understand. I mean, I can understand someone stealing or something like that, they're directly gaining something out of it. But arson is a total loss for all concerned.






> Professor James Ogloff, director of the Centre for Forensic Science at Monash University in Australia, says the profile of a typical fire setter is male, late teens/early 20s, unattractive, unmarried, shy, socially isolated, and with lower intelligence.  About a third of perpetrators have co-morbid psychiatric conditions including schizophrenia, and mood and/or personality disorders (usually narcissism).  About half have prior criminal convictions.  One of the more curious clinical characteristics is the apparent lack of motive (typically reserved for the so-called pyromaniac).  No arsonist shows remorse, but only the pyromaniac lacks conscious motivation although they are fully aware of the acts they are committing.  It's as if their mind "blocks off" or conceals short-term memory of whatever rational thought they put into their devious plans.  For this reason clinicians often characterize the motivation as a combination of pathological and non-pathological.




http://www.drtomoconnor.com/4050/4050lect04a.htm


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## Smurf1976 (3 January 2015)

Getting pretty bad in SA it seems. Not good.

http://www.themercury.com.au/news/b...ergency-warnings/story-fnj6ehgr-1227173256782


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## Tink (3 January 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Getting pretty bad in SA it seems. Not good.
> 
> http://www.themercury.com.au/news/b...ergency-warnings/story-fnj6ehgr-1227173256782




Yes, it seems that way, Smurf, and am surprised no comments from the South Australians.

We had a cool change come through around 6pm, but the firefighters have had a busy day. 
From what I hear, we still have a fire near the Grampians.

Thankfully, everyone seems safe.


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## burglar (3 January 2015)

Tink said:


> ... am surprised no comments from the South Australians ...




If you need to hear from a South Australian: 


My brother Peter has been evacuated to St Peters (an inner suburb).

He has a beaut, 10 acre property near One Tree Hill
He was north of the fire at Sampson Flat before the cool change.

Now he is sitting it out!


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## Tink (3 January 2015)

I am sorry to hear about your brother, burglar, but glad to hear he is safe.
I hope it all works out for him.
I suppose I asked to get a locals view of the situation, rather than from the news.
Thanks for sharing.

One of the ladies I spoke to from the Vic fires a few years ago that had to evacuate, came back to find their home still there, though everything else was burned around it.
The animals were around the home waiting too, they were on a farm.
They had jumped in the creek at the bottom of their property.
Just thought I would share.


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## burglar (4 January 2015)

Tink said:


> ... Just thought I would share.




He did not tell me ... I had to ask.
Oh well, if he wants to talk he has my number!

I suppose his biggest worry is the fire.
(assuming he evacuated both his bitch and his missus) 

Then there is the worry of looters, 
hope that doesn't happen.



Incinerator!! Can you believe it??


----------



## Calliope (4 January 2015)

*Back to Reality*







Survivors look on as Victorian merino farmer David Coad prepares to bury thousands of sheep killed by massive bushfires.

Many properties in South Australia and Victoria are destroyed and many others threatened. A woman has been charged over 40 deliberately-lit fires in Victoria’s north.


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## Smurf1976 (4 January 2015)

Calliope said:


> A woman has been charged over 40 deliberately-lit fires in Victoria’s north.




I just cannot describe how angry this makes me feel. Fair enough if the fire starts due to a lightning strike or even a genuine accident, but deliberately lighting them is just not on. 

Two years ago the Tasman Peninsula went up in smoke. A year ago there were fires near my own home. Now there's huge fires in SA and Vic. And it's the same somewhere in Australia every Summer, we have fires. To light one deliberately is just, well, I really can't get my mind around that.


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## burglar (4 January 2015)

Tink said:


> ... that had to evacuate, came back to find their home still there ...




My brother is back home.
He is considering a subsequent evac, 
as ash is raining on his roof.
The information he receives is an hour old.
He keeps an anxious eye on the horizon!

The wind direction is erratic, 
so it is not over until it's over!


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## Tink (6 January 2015)

With the changes mentioned today, burglar, hope the fires stay contained.

It makes you question why he is receiving the news so late.

Thinking of you all.


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## burglar (6 January 2015)

Tink said:


> With the changes mentioned today, burglar, hope the fires stay contained ...




He says it is heartwarming to see people "doing stuff" for others. 

From what I have seen the firies have done a fantastic job on containment.
(with the assistance of Victorian and NSW equipment and people)

Hope it works out.

P.S. Nice to see Policemen who are not collecting revenue. :


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## burglar (8 January 2015)

Thanks for the bananas:

thanks-for-the-bananas


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## Tink (26 December 2015)

*Great Ocean Road fire*: Number of homes lost in Christmas Day blaze rises to 116
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-...ire-number-of-homes-lost-at-wye-river/7054840

_The number of properties lost in the Christmas Day bushfire along Victoria's Great Ocean Road has risen to 116. 

At Wye River, 98 homes were destroyed, while 18 were lost at Separation Creek. Fire officials said the majority of the properties lost were holiday homes_


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## basilio (24 January 2019)

The next couple of days will be very dangerous for fires around Australia.
Excellent analysis on ABC  about what makes a horror fire danger.
*What makes a horror fire danger day?*
ABC Weather
By  Kate Doyle 
Updated about 4 hours ago




* Photo:* Fire is a part of life in Australia, but some conditions can signal catastrophic danger. (ABC Weather: Kate Doyle) 
*Related Story:* Wind change leaves 40 firefighters 'shaken' by near miss
*Related Story:* Bushfire danger ratings
*Related Story:* Lightning, tornadoes and mice: the science of bushfires
Textbook fire conditions are forecast over the next few days as hot northerly winds bear down on south-eastern Australia and a cold front creeps across from the west.

The danger has been rated as extreme today for the Mount Lofty Ranges and Lower South East of South Australia, with the worst of the threat expected to move into Victoria's Mallee and Northern Country forecast areas on Friday.

Very high to severe fire danger has been forecast for Tasmania as the front moves through. The state is already battling several major bushfires and a total fire ban is in effect for the entire state until Monday.




* Photo:* Black Saturday forced the creation of a "code red" or "catastrophic" fire danger rating.


There is a classic set-up that signals disastrous fire danger in Australia, so when this pattern develops it's important to sit up and pay attention.

Fire needs a spark, and then drought, high temperatures, low humidity, heavy fuel loads and the lie of the land all play their part.

Black Saturday is a textbook example but it is not alone — the same pattern unfolded on Ash Wednesday and again just a few weeks ago. 
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-24/what-makes-a-horror-fire-danger-day/10685918


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## Smurf1976 (3 March 2019)

Hope those in Vic are all OK with the fires which I hear are getting pretty bad.

Best of luck to those affected.


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## Knobby22 (3 March 2019)

Trying to rain in Melbourne. Rain starts falling then evaporates before it hits ground. Weird looking clouds.
Hopefully the rain hits ground in bushfires as on higher ground.


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## basilio (3 July 2019)

Came across an outstanding resource for people interested in resources to deal with bushfires.
http://www.pleanetwork.com.au/brown-hill-community-fireaware-network-resources/


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## Tink (17 December 2019)

*Bureaucratic madness: Council thwarts Eildon caravan park owner’s attempt to protect park against bushfires*

An Eildon man’s attempt to make his caravan park safer throughout the bushfire season has been thwarted by council bureaucracy.

Craig Dawson wants to clear tea tree from neighbouring properties to create a fire break and make Boulevard Caravan Park, which has a capacity of 150 people, safer.

His neighbours have agreed to the clearing, but to remove the trees Murrindindi Shire Council requires permits, site inspections and expert consultants to survey the area.

The council also wants Mr Dawson to spend more than $100,000 on new trees to offset those he wants to remove.

“We just want to remove 1.2 hectares of tea tree abutting the park on two neighbours land, to create a greater fire buffer,” he told 3AW’s Neil Mitchell.

“We’re happy to pay for it!”

Mr Dawson, who has experience as a voluntary firefighter, says he’s done all he can within the park to reduce the fire risk, but he’s worried it’s not enough.

“We want to try and make it a bit safer and create a bit more of a fire break around the park,” he said.

But it doesn’t look likely the trees will be removed any time soon.

If Mr Dawson removes the hundreds of tea trees which are making his caravan park unsafe without the necessary permits he could be fined $1600 per tree.

“Common sense in Australia has now been replaced by bureaucracy!,” he said.

“I’ve written to the CEO again yesterday, pointing out that there are clauses in the legislation that says there are exemptions to have a permit in certain circumstances, and I’ve articulated the circumstances are that NSW and Queensland are giving Victorians a heads up that we potentially face an extreme fire season this year.

“On that basis I’m seeking an exemption to get the work done ASAP.”

3AW Mornings contacted Murrindindi Council, who declined to appear on the program.

https://www.3aw.com.au/eildon-carav...om-bushfires-thwarted-by-murrindindi-council/


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## qldfrog (17 December 2019)

But you need to see headlines in the news.. global warming at it again. Scomo is burning us etc
Australia has a serious problem, it is too urbanised and ignorant /uneducated to have even a grasp of what land living is about, cycles, real ecology, and ecosystem balances etc
Acres bulldozed fir new development but you can not cut a tree where it would make sense or even ecological value


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## chiff (17 December 2019)

Tink said:


> *Bureaucratic madness: Council thwarts Eildon caravan park owner’s attempt to protect park against bushfires*
> 
> An Eildon man’s attempt to make his caravan park safer throughout the bushfire season has been thwarted by council bureaucracy.
> 
> ...



Tea trees are often shrub size..so the name can be a bit misleading.Without seeing the situation it would be hard to make a judgement.


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## basilio (20 December 2019)

Bushfires reach suburban Melbourne on the hottest ever day in Melbourne.

 Print  Email  Facebook  Twitter  More
*Fire burns through Seaford buildings as Victorian heat records tumble and emergency-level blazes burn*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-20/hot-weather-victoria-heatwave-bushfire-smoke/11816230


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## macca (20 December 2019)

chiff said:


> Tea trees are often shrub size..so the name can be a bit misleading.Without seeing the situation it would be hard to make a judgement.




Hi Chiff,

Yes they do vary in size, they usually manage about 2.5 metres but they have masses of really fine twiglets (not really sure what I should call them) but they burn like flammable liquid.

We had them in the area I grew up in and when the flames hit them they virtually explode as they are full of oil, I can understand why the bloke wants to remove them.


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## cynic (21 December 2019)

basilio said:


> Bushfires reach suburban Melbourne on the hottest ever day in Melbourne.
> 
> Print Email  Facebook  Twitter  More
> *Fire burns through Seaford buildings as Victorian heat records tumble and emergency-level blazes burn*
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-20/hot-weather-victoria-heatwave-bushfire-smoke/11816230



Hottest Melbourne day ever! Perhaps to those with incredibly short memories!


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## chiff (21 December 2019)

macca said:


> Hi Chiff,
> 
> Yes they do vary in size, they usually manage about 2.5 metres but they have masses of really fine twiglets (not really sure what I should call them) but they burn like flammable liquid.
> 
> We had them in the area I grew up in and when the flames hit them they virtually explode as they are full of oil, I can understand why the bloke wants to remove them.



Yes ,point taken..thankyou.He should also be worried about ember attack for his shade trees in the caravan park.For his tea trees maybe he needs a decent tin fence is he is really worried?


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## macca (21 December 2019)

chiff said:


> Yes ,point taken..thankyou.He should also be worried about ember attack for his shade trees in the caravan park.For his tea trees maybe he needs a decent tin fence is he is really worried?




I guess with his shade trees it would depend on what type of tree they are but also what he does with the waste water from the park.

Here at home, we are not connected to the town sewer so we have our own water treatment plant instead of a septic tank.

This water is sprayed out onto the grass, the green patches are exceedingly obvious at present and if he did the same then his trees could be green enough not to ignite under an ember attack. 

As for trying to protect from exploding ti trees a fence would slow it down but all the paint would be gone and the panels warped by the heat, any caravans or cabins would be at risk if within 20 metres of a fire.

The heat is beyond imagining, truly, you can feel it sucking the moisture from your skin and that can be from 20 metres away.

If the ti trees were 3 metres high then the flames could be 10 metres high, the first time I fought a fire I was 11 and I still think of it as terrifying.


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## qldfrog (31 December 2019)

A small thanks to all the rfb around Australia risking their life for the community, with hardly any recognition on the global scale and depressingly low level of equipment
Today especially in Victoria it seems


----------



## sptrawler (31 December 2019)

qldfrog said:


> A small thanks to all the rfb around Australia risking their life for the community, with hardly any recognition on the global scale and depressingly low level of equipment
> Today especially in Victoria it seems



Maybe the States should get together and purchase some fire bombers, as this apparently, is only going to get worse.


----------



## qldfrog (31 December 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Maybe the States should get together and purchase some fire bombers, as this apparently, is only going to get worse.



France is not often a role model but they have a fleet of canadairs scooping serious amount of water from lake and sea and dumping it on fires
They often butt these at the start irrespective of the terrain and there are no fire there burning for months on end waiting to the next wind to kill and destroy
What would be the cost shared between the states? Less than the stupid submarines, and probably less than the costs of these fires left running for ages.
Does not mean we should not do the prevention first with burnoff but at least we should have a proper response force, avoiding this morning disaster near Mallacoota..
And believe me, Corsican bush is as bad as Australia in term of fire risk and inaccessible terrain


----------



## IFocus (31 December 2019)

Just reading through the news heart goes out to all affected Vic / NSW fires frigging nightmare


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## Smurf1976 (31 December 2019)

qldfrog said:


> France is not often a role model but they have a fleet of canadairs scooping serious amount of water from lake and sea and dumping it on fires
> They often butt these at the start irrespective of the terrain and there are no fire there burning for months on end waiting to the next wind to kill and destroy




I've seen something similar in the US.

A fire started and it was a full on aerial attack on it. No idea how many planes and helicopters but I'm talking about 20 not 2 etc and that was just a smallish fire on a hill near LA. They used the proverbial sledgehammer and smashed the nut beyond recognition.


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## macca (31 December 2019)

Obviously we all feel sickened when we read of the deaths of humans but I am just so pissed off that all this was forecast to happen by the old hands when all the stupid new rules were introduced about 15-20 years ago

A friend sent a link showing an estimated 500 million creatures have also been burnt in this debacle.

If you create a bloody great big bonfire what the hell do you think will happen ?

We can argue the "cause" later but for now, as I have said before, we have only two options, we can cold burn in winter when it suits us or Mother Nature will burn it off when it suits her.


----------



## IFocus (1 January 2020)

And they had to think about compensation, check out these guys note no panicking legends.


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## sptrawler (1 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> And they had to think about compensation, check out these guys note no panicking legends.




I lost a mate 26 years ago volunteer fire fighting in Noggerup, 53 years old and would do anything for anyone real selfless guy, still chokes me up.
**** of a job, but thankfully these guys do it.


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## Knobby22 (1 January 2020)

Good article in the Age today about collecting charity money for fire service.

Articles state Governments should be paying for this though. Stated NSW government cut budget by heaps. 
This means less burning off and less equipment for volunteers who instead have to rely on charity. 

Sucks.

It is good that the Fed's under Scomo are now providing some support to the volunteers  many who run or work for small businesses. Took the embarrassment of an ill advised Hawaiian holiday to cause movement though.


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## sptrawler (1 January 2020)

Another interesting article in the Age, feet on the ground suggest the armed forces would probably be more trouble than they were worth, which is understandable the last thing you want is untrained people in the fire area.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...ady-for-bushfire-rescues-20191231-p53nxy.html
From the article:
_Australian Defence Association executive director Neil James warned against calls to deploy more troops and said it would be better to deploy more purpose-built aerial water bombers than use RAAF aircraft.
Mr James, who served in the ADF for 45 years and has volunteered with the NSW Rural Fire Service for seven years, said troops could be used in a flood to lay sandbags but did not have the training for front-line firefighting.

"This is one area where social media and commentators have not only got it wrong but are making it worse," he said.


Mr James said land-clearing operations were best done by local councils with staff who knew the area rather than troops flown in for the job.

He also said Australian fires, with oil and vapour from eucalypts creating intense heat and flame, were best fought with the jets already used by fire authorities rather than RAAF aircraft such as the Hercules_ .

A lot of information and tactics will be learned, from the current unprecedented amount of simultaneous fires, logistics must be a nightmare.


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## DB008 (1 January 2020)

I've been out of the loop for a while, but what happened to back burning during winter?

When l was growing up, back burning used to happen all the time. Not so much now?


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## IFocus (1 January 2020)

DB008 said:


> I've been out of the loop for a while, but what happened to back burning during winter?
> 
> When l was growing up, back burning used to happen all the time. Not so much now?




Has been talked about quite a bit.

NSW (assume same for other states) cut budgets affecting the numbers available to do any burn offs.

Long term drought has increased the risk hugely and the drying trend has narrowed the window to carry this out.

Lots of finger pointing at Greenies only problem is they have never been in government any where on main land Australia and certainly didnt control cutting the  budgets.

Current extreme early season hot weather systems sweeping across Australia (unprecedented) would negate fuel reduction programs anyway IMHO, Macca might argue other wise. I think it would reduce fire intensity but the fires would still be beyond control once you have strong winds and + 40 degree heat its all over..

Unfortunately this current scenario is our future imagine the extremes once we reach +2 degrees C higher and the drying trend continues such as the SW corner of WA.

Once aspect of this year is the burning of rain forest totally unprecedented not suppose to happen.


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## Smurf1976 (2 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> Lots of finger pointing at Greenies only problem is they have never been in government any where on main land Australia and certainly didnt control cutting the  budgets.




I agree in a strict legal sense they haven't been in government but the Greens (as in the political party) and conservationists (as distinct from the Greens) in general do claim to have been effective at various things by means of protest and preference votes etc. That's no conspiracy, it's a claim often made by prominent Greens politicians and other environmentalists over an extended period.

The argument that they can't be blamed, due to not being in government, thus rests upon the notion that government should use a "whatever it takes" approach to bust through any physical protest blockade and get whatever done such that those opposing would never in practice have stopped anything.

Now I can't see that ending too well given that it comes down to either mass arrests, which has been done on occasion in the past and not unreasonably seen as an assault on freedom of expression, or a few deaths as the trucks or bulldozers go through or the fires are lit or whatever.

Note that I'm taking a neutral stance as such there, playing devil's advocate basically, and I don't advocate driving over or shooting anyone but it's one of the other. Can't really claim to be effective via protests etc but then deny responsibility for the outcome and say government should have stopped you from being effective unless you're asking for force to be used against you in order to achieve that.

My personal thought is that the environmental side has actually answered the question better than anyone and it applies to most of these issues.

Do what the science says.

Exactly. Put all these issues such as fire management, water supply, energy and so on in the hands of real experts across the relevant fields and leave them to it. Keep all politicians from One Nation through to the Greens and everyone in between right out of it.

To that end, if it were up to me then I'd assemble some sort of Commission staffed by an assortment of people across the range of scientific fields from biology and botany through to civil and power engineering and everything in between and with some sort of chief scientific group as its board of directors.

Leave them to sort these problems out with the only mandate being that comprehensive solutions are required. Eg a solution to CO2 emissions must keep the lights on reliably. A solution to water supply can't involve drowning areas of legitimate high conservation value. Etc and make sure the organisation is equipped to fully assess everything "in house" thus removing external biases.

Removal of political bias by means of giving parliament nothing more than a "yes / no" vote, no option to pick things apart or modify the details, and all internal reports and information to be made public online.

If they tell us after considering all the relevant issues that we need a fleet of water bombing helicopters and to train however many ADF personnel to professional firefighting standards whilst building another dam to shore up Sydney's water supply well then that's what should happen.


----------



## sptrawler (2 January 2020)

DB008 said:


> I've been out of the loop for a while, but what happened to back burning during winter?
> 
> When l was growing up, back burning used to happen all the time. Not so much now?



It does appear to be business as usual, who can get the most teflon on, so that none of the $ hit sticks.
So as usual the problem will go away unanswered, because the extensive out of control burns, have saved anyone having to try and get permission for controlled burns.
Untill next time.
Just my opinion.


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## IFocus (2 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I agree in a strict legal sense they haven't been in government but the Greens (as in the political party) and conservationists (as distinct from the Greens) in general do claim to have been effective at various things by means of protest and preference votes etc. That's no conspiracy, it's a claim often made by prominent Greens politicians and other environmentalists over an extended period.




My understanding is that the Greens have long advocated for prescribed burns

I know years ago here in WA there was a blue about CALM burning off around endangered bird nesting sites but the biggest complaints came from smoke being dumped on Perth.

I honestly dont think its going to make much difference in the current weather conditions and given the size / area on fire I would doubt (IMHO) that a fuel reduction program would cover the total area.

Then there the fact rainforest is burning you cannot prescribe burn that.

Tree changes have also changed the dynamic seems more people living in forested areas.

Anyway good news more fire crews survive being caught flame overs


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## macca (2 January 2020)

These are the type of people that need to be listened to, they have made incredible gains in the sustainable conservation of wildlife.

There main weapons are eco burning (management by fire) and feral free zones

https://www.australianwildlife.org/our-work/fire-management-program/


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## moXJO (2 January 2020)

The march of the Gumtree is a big factor that is often overlooked. And a lot have marched right into rainforest territory. They are a bastard of a tree when it comes to fire. And the one thing that thrives after one.


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## macca (2 January 2020)

DB008 said:


> I've been out of the loop for a while, but what happened to back burning during winter?
> 
> When l was growing up, back burning used to happen all the time. Not so much now?




Hi DB,

You have been out of the loop for sure, to refresh your memory, in winter we used to "burn off" or in PC speak, we hazard reduced.

If a fire has got away we may "back burn" within its expected path so that it stops when it reaches the bit we just back burnt.

All quite simple really but we need to stop being so damned arrogant and accept that nature is far more powerful than us and take precautions in winter while we can


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## Smurf1976 (2 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> The march of the Gumtree is a big factor that is often overlooked. And a lot have marched right into rainforest territory. They are a bastard of a tree when it comes to fire. And the one thing that thrives after one.




Commercial forestry replacing mixed species forests with eucalypt monocultures is another driver of the same outcome.

That my local council allows me to remove any tree close to the house with the exception of two species, one of which is any eucalypt, is a crazy idea. Of all species you wouldn’t want right next to a house that’s the one they protect.


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## Smurf1976 (2 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> My understanding is that the Greens have long advocated for prescribed burns



I think it’s important to distinguish the Greens, that is the political party, from anyone who simply campaigns on some random environmental issue. In the same way as some worker arguing with a boss isn’t Labor and a random group of farmers aren’t the Nationals and so on.

The Greens may well have supported burning but others have certainly opposed it on “cute furry animals” sort of environmental grounds or on the basis of air pollution.

There’s quite a fuss being made elsewhere about Nowa Nowa in Victoria which has been hit by the fires.

First because protesters objected to a planned burn in the same area recently.

Second because the relevant authorities caved in and cancelled almost all of the burn except for a tiny little bit.

Third and perhaps most seriously because the ABC is alleged to have removed the story about the protests and the burn being stopped from its website once the fire broke out. A cover up. I don’t know how true that all is but others are certainly making the claim.

Now that’s not the Greens in the same way as any random union is not Labor but it is a case of environmental opposition to burning which has ended badly.

Rules stopping farmers clearing between roads and their property boundaries are another example.


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## DB008 (2 January 2020)

Yeah, reminds me of this...


*Fined for illegal clearing, family now feel vindicated*​
They were labelled law breakers, fined $50,000 and left emotionally and financially drained.

But seven years after the Sheahans bulldozed trees to make a fire break — an act that got them dragged before a magistrate and penalised — they feel vindicated. Their house is one of the few in Reedy Creek, Victoria, still standing.

Mr Sheahan is still angry about his prosecution, which cost him $100,000 in fines and legal fees. The council's planning laws allow trees to be cleared only when they are within six metres of a house. Mr Sheahan cleared trees up to 100 metres away from his house.

"The council stood up in court and made us to look like the worst, wanton environmental vandals on the earth. We've got thousands of trees on our property. We cleared about 247," he said.​
He said the royal commission on the fires must result in changes to planning laws to allow land owners to clear trees and vegetation that pose a fire risk.

"Both the major parties are pandering to the Greens for preferences and that is what is causing the problem. Common sense isn't that common these days," Mr Sheahan said.

Melbourne University bushfire expert Kevin Tolhurst gave evidence to help the Sheahan family in their legal battle with the council.​
https://www.smh.com.au/national/fin...family-now-feel-vindicated-20090212-85bd.html​


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## IFocus (2 January 2020)

DB008 said:


> Yeah, reminds me of this...
> 
> 
> *Fined for illegal clearing, family now feel vindicated*​
> ...




I was aware of that story recon they got screwed, even with a 50 mt break around the house they still had to fight long and hard to save the house remember seeing how burnt the place was but still standing.


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## Smurf1976 (3 January 2020)

DB008 said:


> "Both the major parties are pandering to the Greens for preferences and that is what is causing the problem. Common sense isn't that common these days," Mr Sheahan said.




What's needed is a scientific approach and the removal of politics from all this.

No elected person should be making these sorts of decisions, it's a job for experts based on science not some damn politician of whatever persuasion.


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## qldfrog (3 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> I was aware of that story recon they got screwed, even with a 50 mt break around the house they still had to fight long and hard to save the house remember seeing how burnt the place was but still standing.



So what is exactly your point? A family managed to save their house vs being pictured evacuating from a beach and they did not have a point?
Another key dump element always hammered by the ABC is that the season to light the fire is too short

Here in qld in 2011, brisbane was flooding,none of our flood cycle year..so 9 years ago every place could have seen burn off done, not a doubt: yet nothing in my area...
The other issue is RFBs are volunteers so with people out of farming, we can only do burns on basically Saturdays to mop up on sundays
Indeed our windows have reduced to 1/7th of the Aborigines or farmers
Never seen this mentioned but sure CC...


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## DB008 (3 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> What's needed is a scientific approach and the removal of politics from all this.
> 
> No elected person should be making these sorts of decisions, it's a job for experts based on science not some damn politician of whatever persuasion.




Totally agree. But it won't happen


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## IFocus (3 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> So what is exactly your point? .




I guess how many people can clear 50 mts around their house to start with I couldn't?

The fire conditions for that story were bad the current ones are beyond extreme that 50 mt would not have  held you have towns burning for Christ sake its all unrepresented.

As for CC what happens when we get hotter what will the extremes be then as for the current situation this is the current weather patterns


"The last couple of months have seen a triple whammy of climate factors leading to widespread death and destruction right across the country.

The combined impacts from one of the strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events on record, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event and flow on strong negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) events have resulted in *2019 being the hottest and driest year for Australia on record.*

In short, the lack of moisture from the Indian Ocean and lift in the westerly storm track towards the country from the south has brought hot, dry weather - and devastating fire conditions.

One additional flow on effect of the strong positive IOD event was that it blocked the development of the monsoon trough across the north of the country, effectively holding it at bay until now. The onset of the monsoon usually occurs late October and into early November, bringing enhanced rainfall across northern Australia."


But look lets all pray for Scotty from marketing Smoko it must surely be a horrible time for him.


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## moXJO (3 January 2020)

Fuel load, lazy councils, tree management, drought all played a factor. Blaming it on that idiot scomo is blame misplaced. It also ignores the reality.
Australia states and local gov got lazy. Fire breaks were needed well before.


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## qldfrog (3 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> I guess how many people can clear 50 mts around their house to start with I couldn't?
> 
> The fire conditions for that story were bad the current ones are beyond extreme that 50 mt would not have  held you have towns burning for Christ sake its all unrepresented.
> 
> ...



Sure, read the abc, hottest on record..well actually 1910
Why not 1900 etc etc
It is dry it is severe..that country has f***ed it a big way,  but just wondering how it will be if as in the 1000's it become warm enough for Vikings to grow cereal in Greenland, as they did then..
Oh yeah i know we will blame the liberals..how dare they
It is getting warmer and we need to act properly this includes fire break, i have the space to get that clearance, but i can not
Once the forest burns i am gone..
The only thing i can  do is maintain the existing fire break..in all illegality but cutting regrowth there and slashing
When villages burn, they burn because no one is defending them and they can not because the whole Forest next door is having a treetop fire bombarding them.
Fires should not and would not reach tree top with proper fire management.once it is doing it,  be it  next door or 50km away, not much can help except airplanes we do not have.
One of the few comforting news is that actually not that many houses were burnt.so it means people and firies did save many..no the towns are not razed..think about it..total population vs houses lost
Do not take me wrong, terrible for the ones lost, but it does mean many many more were saved..how why?
Will this be part of the postmortem studies?
Were house occupied, equipped, cleared, why this one and not that one...
Out of the media light, into facts...
Experts required yes but remember our regulations are drawn by people in the capital city department, experts... Will need common sense, real on the ground experience more than experts on TV or here , creating their own income streams
I definitively do not want any of the so called climate scientists involved, nor an armchair rfs headquarter employee.plenty of on the ground experience here, my own included in a very small way


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## chiff (3 January 2020)

The building codes now need to be enforced to make homes more resilient in times of bushfire.I remember one old house burning at a fire we went to.The house was 300 metres from where we were waiting for the front to come out of a pine forest (stupid) What I am saying is that some houses are indefensible.The whole regime of building in the wild woods needs to be looked at.National Parks have not been valued and professional staff with paid help are thin on the ground.These are repositories for the future of flora and fauna,not  to be underfunded and blamed for helping fires spread.Maybe things will change-but I doubt it.


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## chiff (3 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> I was aware of that story recon they got screwed, even with a 50 mt break around the house they still had to fight long and hard to save the house remember seeing how burnt the place was but still standing.



Maybe shires or council will stop giving out building permits for people that want to live on their bush block?Especially if they have large damages awarded against them.The rates may not be worth it.


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## moXJO (3 January 2020)

We need management solutions. The current screeching about climate change from the press is a distraction from the realities of what needs to be done. We can reduce emissions to zero tomorrow and Australia will still burn if it isn't managed properly. People in cities have this false sense of safety because we reduce our carbon emissions by 5%.  Ignoring that management solutions and adaptation are still needed. 
Food/water will be the next big crisis that needed to be sorted years back. Heat issues will be another one. This all needs to be addressed now. 

Carbon forAustralia is a long way down the list. And the reality is it will do bugger all. The climate won't stop changing. World action is needed. But we are going to get caught out by the changes before that happens.


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## noirua (3 January 2020)

*A STUDY ON FOREST FIRE OCCURRENCE IN CHINA*
http://www.fao.org/3/XII/0278-B1.htm


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## moXJO (3 January 2020)

Anyone with spare coin, every bit helps:
It's not just the fires but the drought and starvation.

https://www.wildlifevictoria.org.au

https://www.wires.org.au/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1MPjg57m5gIVxRaPCh22QwVXEAMYASAAEgIJV_D_BwE


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## IFocus (3 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Fuel load, lazy councils, tree management, drought all played a factor. Blaming it on that idiot scomo is blame misplaced. It also ignores the reality.
> Australia states and local gov got lazy. Fire breaks were needed well before.




Must be the most inept performance ever seen by an Australian PM



Watching the 2nd clip here is painful John Howard would never have just walked away never mind forcing the hand shake.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...-welcome-he-deserved-says-liberal-mp/11838476


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## moXJO (3 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> Must be the most inept performance ever seen by an Australian PM




Absolutely terrible performance. This will right him off for the rest of his term- if he lasts that long. The trip to Hawaii was his downfall in the opinion polls. 

However, he's an easy scapegoat to what the actual problem was.


----------



## IFocus (3 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Fuel load, lazy councils, tree management, drought all played a factor. Blaming it on that idiot scomo is blame misplaced. It also ignores the reality.
> Australia states and local gov got lazy. Fire breaks were needed well before.




A firey captain was asked on ABC this morning to compare the previous Victorian fires (he fought them as well) with the current as far as conditions etc went he calmly said they were at least double how are you going to deal with that?

Its not a blame game its a new paradigm

He also said his own family have been evacuated and that his place although in the firing line wont be defended in the coming days what can we say when this is the service we get from these people.


Compare that to our PM Smoko.

Note, Vic Premier Andrews praised Smoko for his help in coordination for the Victorian fire evacuations (thats leadership) Smoko has failed the test where this is the time for standing shoulder to shoulder not looking for photo opts for political standing.

Shame really it does Australia no good


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## moXJO (3 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> A firey captain was asked on ABC this morning to compare the previous Victorian fires (he fought them as well) with the current as far as conditions etc went he calmly said they were at least double how are you going to deal with that?
> 
> Its not a blame game its a new paradigm
> 
> ...



You do know he has been coordinating with state govt all week. As recently as navy ships to Andrews. Photo ops he is bombing in. But let's face it: It's leftist out in force powerwhinging at the neocon. Scomo will simply wait for the rain to save his ar5e. 

It's as dry as 83 for Vic. When there is no rain the leaf litter doesn't decompose. And yes the climate changing is affecting that. That's a problem not a solution. Scomo accepting climate change won't do much for issues we are facing now.


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## IFocus (3 January 2020)

I haven't seen one house that has roof sprinklers also seems none have independent water supply's yet most in and around bush.

Politically the left haven't put the boot in that will likely come later, the media  have only shown the footage havent seen much finger pointing will be interesting if Alan Jones will defend or get in line to kick him, Morrison has shown he really is only a marketing man totally out of his depth.

The ALP actually went to the last election with a costed plan for increased fires increasing resources like aircraft etc as far as I know Coalition had and still has nothing.

Current Fed government had been brief extensively that this current situation was a real possibility.

Then throw into the mix the NSW emergency services minister took a holiday, its only optics but will certainly be a lighting rod for anger like Morrison's Hawaii jaunt over 1300 home lost and countless businesses and its only the start of January.

And the CC stuff is very relevant this is what it looks like.


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## basilio (3 January 2020)

Some very angry, articulate, Liberal voters  disgusted with the current governments stand of  fires and CC

 Bushfires 
* I've always voted Liberal, but after sheltering my family on a beach I cannot support this government *
While I spent the night with hot embers raining down on us at Malua Bay, I decided to write to Scott Morrison

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...y-on-a-beach-i-cannot-support-this-government


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## DB008 (3 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Put all these issues such as fire management, water supply, energy and so on in the hands of real experts across the relevant fields and leave them to it. Keep all politicians from One Nation through to the Greens and everyone in between right out of it.
> 
> To that end, if it were up to me then I'd assemble some sort of Commission staffed by an assortment of people across the range of scientific fields from biology and botany through to civil and power engineering and everything in between and with some sort of chief scientific group as its board of directors.







moXJO said:


> Fuel load, lazy councils, tree management, drought all played a factor. Blaming it on that idiot scomo is blame misplaced. It also ignores the reality.
> Australia states and local gov got lazy. Fire breaks were needed well before.







moXJO said:


> We need management solutions. The current screeching about climate change from the press is a distraction from the realities of what needs to be done. We can reduce emissions to zero tomorrow and Australia will still burn if it isn't managed properly. People in cities have this false sense of safety because we reduce our carbon emissions by 5%. Ignoring that management solutions and adaptation are still needed.
> 
> Food/water will be the next big crisis that needed to be sorted years back. Heat issues will be another one. This all needs to be addressed now.




Totally agree with moXJO and Smurf. Doesn't matter who is in Government. Liberal or Labour. It would have been exactly the same outcome. Even with zero emissions, we would have had a pretty bad bushfire season.


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## moXJO (3 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> And the CC stuff is very relevant this is what it looks like.




It's relevant in it's effect on Australia. Not so much the bleating that reduce emissions in Australia  will help in any form for the current situation. It's not going to stop jack the world will continue to pollute. It's a cheap talking point. And funding is at record highs.



basilio said:


> Some very angry, articulate, Liberal voters  disgusted with the current governments stand of  fires and CC
> 
> Bushfires
> * I've always voted Liberal, but after sheltering my family on a beach I cannot support this government *
> ...



Lol.... I doubt he voted libs, but this just in from the guardian : 

*SCOMO BURNT MY HOUSE DOWN.*


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## moXJO (3 January 2020)

There have been long droughts in this country that lasted decades. Things can get a lot worse.


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## basilio (3 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> There have been long droughts in this country that lasted decades. Things can get a lot worse.




Indeed there have been. But these droughts have happened in the context of an overall climate that was significantly cooler than our current experience and which will get progressively much warmer on our current trajectory.

Add drought to that base climate and many places in Australia will be uninhabitable.
https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Oa...mate/State-of-the-Climate-2018/Future-climate


moXJO said:


> It's relevant in it's effect on Australia. Not so much the bleating that reduce emissions in Australia  will help in any form for the current situation. It's not going to stop jack the world will continue to pollute. It's a cheap talking point. And funding is at record highs.
> 
> 
> Lol.... I doubt he voted libs, but this just in from the guardian :
> ...




Really ?  Your quite happy to quote and believe one person who was savage on Scomo (He burn't my house down.) but don't accept another person's story that is also critical of Government CC policy but prefaces it with saying he is angry about the lack of effective policies dealing CC.


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## Smurf1976 (3 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> A firey captain was asked on ABC this morning to compare the previous Victorian fires (he fought them as well) with the current as far as conditions etc went he calmly said they were at least double how are you going to deal with that?




I think the point being made is that yes the conditions are extreme but there are many contributing factors as to why this is the case.

Climate change is one factor but only one.

Weather cycles are one but again only one.

Land management is another. It's not just about burning off, although that's one thing, but also about where we put houses, where we have trees, failing to do even basic things like slashing long grass around towns and beside roads, changes to the land due to everything from mining to bushwalking and so on. There's a multitude of failures in this field alone.

Fire brigade resourcing both equipment and humans is another. If we'd had sufficient resources to put the fires out when they started then that would have made a difference almost certainly. Sufficient resources as in yes, do send the proverbial sledgehammer in to smash the nut to pieces and if that turns out to be overkill well it's better than doing the opposite and letting the fire spread.

And so on. Those saying that climate change is the only factor (not referring to anyone here but in general) are basically playing politics, diverting discussion away from the full range of contributing factors because regardless of who they vote for, they know full well that "their" side is absolutely guilty in at least one area.

As a random example, in SA there's a magic line drawn on the maps and this has significant consequences for various things relating to management of trees, building requirements and so on. In short, according to the map, fire doesn't jump from one side of the road to another. So you've got bush on one side which is continuous bush up into and over the Adelaide Hills and on the other you've got housing which is continuous urban development right through to the Adelaide CBD.

Have a look on Google maps at any of the eastern suburbs of Adelaide and you'll immediately see what I'm referring to. Now consider that homes on the city side of the road are officially deemed absolutely safe from fire and fall under metropolitan rules which mean they can't remove a 20m high gum tree right next to the place and so on. On the other side of that 2 lane suburban street it's bush stretching for tens of km.

Now looking at these fires in Victoria and NSW, and noting that it's 44 degrees outside with 9% humidity right now where I am in SA, well I have some trouble believing that a normal 2 lane suburban street is going to stop a fire. If it does well then how about we get every council worker, road contractor any anyone who's ever built any sort of road together, send them to NSW and Vic, and have them put a road between the fire and the houses since this will stop the fire. Heck we can even put speed signs etc on it just for some light entertainment. We all know why we're not doing that - it doesn't stop the fire and yet in SA there's a reliance that it will. Either that or there really will be a fire crew at pretty much every house in some streets.

The sad thing about all this is that it's not new. A substantial portion of Hobart was wiped out in the fire disaster of 1967 with 62 lives lost, close to a thousand injuries and ~7000 people left homeless - pretty big numbers for a place with a relatively small population and it all happened in an afternoon. Some smoke at lunchtime, total devastation just hours later. Now I'm pretty sure that wasn't caused by climate change.

Much the same with the Ash Wednesday fires in Vic and SA. Went from nothing to all over alarmingly fast.

We need to learn from this and stop looking for someone to blame. Yes climate change has probably made it worse but there was never a time when entire towns being wiped out wasn't a risk. Just because we went years without it happening doesn't mean it's a new thing.


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## moXJO (3 January 2020)

basilio said:


> Indeed there have been. But these droughts have happened in the context of an overall climate that was significantly cooler than our current experience and which will get progressively much warmer on our current trajectory.
> 
> Add drought to that base climate and many places in Australia will be uninhabitable.
> https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Oa...mate/State-of-the-Climate-2018/Future-climate
> ...




A drought is a drought and temperatures still hit highs. Being dry isn't just a climate change issue. Neither are firebugs.
Fuel load starts to mass and makes a more intense fire when left unchecked.

8 tonnes a hectare is considered a fire hazard. There is up to 50 tonnes on estimates. Towns are burning because idiots locked up the forests, zero management  and refused firebreaks. 

Blaming fires solely on climate change is simpleton rubbish. And all the simpletons are out in force.


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## basilio (3 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Blaming fires* solely* on climate change is simpleton rubbish. And all the simpletons are out in force.




Indeed it is MoXjo - and attempting to say that is the claim of climate scientists and the CSIRO is  a bigger  simpleton lie.

Each and every statement  made by these bodies  on the issue makes it clear that the role of climate change and a warming climate is to simply steeply escalate the ferocity and dangers of bushfires. 
CC doesn't start fires; it just adds a the sort of kick we are now seeing in play around the world.

Naturally that ends up being a longer statement than the currently understood three word slogans.  So its easy for your average climate denying politician/Murdoch hack/ect to just make up their own version of reality to poison the conversation.

If I was too look for a historical comparison the "Nestle kills babies " slogan on the 70's comes to mind. Short, powerful and intrinsically accurate.  It cut through the corporate speak of teh time.


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## kahuna1 (3 January 2020)

Blah blah blah ....
last 3 years Bega region .... 60% rain 2 degrees hotter and 80% humidity.

Our local wanker/Member ... openly would like to debate some points raised here.

When its been very dry for 3 years and a local town Tathra where I lived for 10 years lost 70 homes ... in march 2018 ... of course controlled burns DID NOT OCCUR .... nor in the last 6 months with record dry and record hot for the region ... 1oo year records.

Debating about fuel load ... is insulting when it was not safe enuf even in winter to burn not just 2019 but 2018 and 2017.

Why is there more crap on the ground ? well for the 1.5 million hectares burning in southern NSW only an imbecile would have done a controlled burn at any stage in 2019.

Suggesting that HOT .... ultra dry ... ultra low humidity is NOT a factor or the major factor is suggesting that a wet newspaper burns just as well as a hot dry ultra dry one.

I find it tedious and amazing to have a friend who just lost her home near Cobargo ... fled to her daughters only to have it under threat 20 km away ... and PM turned up in her town and  local member who is a dedicated mealy mouthed climate denier who like most want to debate science which ... I am surprised is a debate. BOM ... has the figures ... the regions burnt so far have had 50-60% normal rain over the last 3 years. Have had 1-2 degree warmer than normal and at best .... 80% humidity.

I cant debate it, but seemingly some would like to talk about fuel loads, NOT why controlled burns did not occur ... because ... it was NOT safe ... similar if not identical numbers for Victorian regions burning and since Eden and Merimbula are close the forests are tinder dry. 

If we had say above average rainfall and even some rain and Bega I think had 30% of normal last three months .... a debate or even questioning with anything not appearing totally stupid would not be occurring.

I am aware of the ex CSRIO fire guy and his view about fuel loads ... but seriously ... why are there or was there so much accumulated fuel ... and it HAD NOTHING to do with greenies !! A lot of the region was National Parks ... the rest state owned forests ...  not a thing to do with greenies or their views or issues. They have ZERO input into management of either. In fact they are viewed correctly by both as IDIOTS.


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## Smurf1976 (3 January 2020)

basilio said:


> Each and every statement  made by these bodies  on the issue makes it clear that the role of climate change and a warming climate is to simply steeply escalate the ferocity and dangers of bushfires.
> CC doesn't start fires; it just adds a the sort of kick we are now seeing in play around the world.



Agreed but we need to respond to this rather than sitting around pointing the blame.

Tomorrow I'll go and take a photo or two to illustrate the point.


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## Smurf1976 (3 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> I cant debate it, but seemingly some would like to talk about fuel loads, NOT why controlled burns did not occur ... because ... it was NOT safe ...



There are many areas where burns could and should have been done but weren't.

Some of those have had heavy rain - there would definitely have been a period between then or now when conditions were indeed "just right" but the opportunity wasn't taken.


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## qldfrog (3 January 2020)

for anyone not enlisting me in the ignore list, in qld at least, 2011 was the year of flood, my dam overflowing for 13months in a row...lantana grew like mad, i sorted that part but not in the NP next door and there was plenty of time to burn off
no fire for the last 30y, seems we will be ok this year now, but fire will happen, expect more images similar to this week coming from Brisbane hinterland....The worst is that even if we had serious reasonable changes, the mistakes are made and it will be very hard to reduce that fuel load safely now..it is too late, so bring on the water bombers
Last point: here in qld, winter is our fire season, august, september our dry time up to december sometimes early january...even in normal years...I am not sure the Brisbane SES are that aware when you read the news and the way preventive burn off are decided in NP


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## kahuna1 (3 January 2020)

Debate ... deny ... and please go on.
In 2018 March A town called Tathra burnt ...
If you are suggesting at some time in 2018 or 2019 a controlled burn could have occurred, well the local RFS and evidence suggests you are quite uninformed.

A fire broke out about 6 months ago ... in the region West of the Cobargo area currently burning ... it was NOT put out ... could not be put out and has burnt for months during both winter and spring. Hey presto its now summer !!

Rainfall in Bega last 3 months, if you looked and tried not to push your point of view, quaint ... as it is ...

October 2019 rain 18 mm average ... NORMAL ... 47.2 mm
Temp .... October plus 2.4 Degrees above norm ..
https://www.eldersweather.com.au/dailysummary.jsp?lt=site&lc=69139&dt=3

November  2019 rain ... 32.6 mm v normal of 68.8 mm ... so that at just under 50% is BETTER ... than October
It is however shocking ....
Temp a full 3 degrees WARMER than usual ... HIGHS ...

December 2019 rain ... 4mm v a NORMAL 65 MM .... second lowest EVER on record and since records go back to 1845 ....
Temp high ave only a mere 2.5 degrees warmer than average
https://www.eldersweather.com.au/dailysummary.jsp?lt=site&lc=69139&dt=1

I do wish ... people with opinions not based upon facts would take the time to check.

The numbers for the proceeding 6 months in the whole region are if anything WORSE overall *as they are for the last 3 years.*

Suggesting its safe to light a fire even in winter when rainfall if 50% of normal and temps are record highs and humidity at record lows for 100 plus years, Well ...

that would be pick a word.

Claiming they could and did not ... I scratch my head where this BS and pure stupidity comes from.




Smurf1976 said:


> There are many areas where burns could and should have been done but weren't.




Its not hard to look at the BPM charts for rainfall ... temp and humidity and then please explain WHERE they could have lit a fire ? *The whole burnt region is in the 50-60% average rainfall for 3 years. 

That region in NSW goes from top to bottom .... and its even lower as one goes inland.

Rain ? Some storm we missed ? Oh really !! 

Opinion or factually backed ? 
*






Red is lowest EVER rainfall on record ....
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/history/rainfall/







*2019 IS not done yet but its WORSE ....*

Where is this rain ? Where it was safe ?
2019 is actually shocking with vast regions not only hitting new rain lows but lows 80% and in some cases lower ... of the worst drought EVER.

Since I own property in various places in NSW one region ... Walgett had 122 MM and you told me to wait till the end of the year .... since the previous lowest ever recorded rainfall was I think 176 MM v a normal of 450 mm.

Well we got no rain between 22 Dec 2019 and 1st Jan so what is that ... 122 MM v 176 previous all time low  and 452 MM normal.

Well ... the NEW low is 69.3% of the OLD record low.
It was ... a staggering 26.9% OF normal.

Since I have land in a  few regions most have it at the 50-60% of normal ... temps 2 degrees above norm and record low humidity and even this seems to escape most.

The numbers .... are diabolical ... yet debated by the truly devoted to non science.
I am astounded someone like you suggested there was some rain and safe period to do burnoffs. Yep during all time hot and dry conditions as I pointed out.

Lets have a fire tomorrow I will bring the petrol as it explodes !!

It is not logical or productive to debate facts. It is in fact ... well I will not be rude ... look at the red in the above maps !! ALL TIME 120 year low rainfall ... Yes they did not burn off for a reason that even a casual observer can see.

Or so I thought.


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## moXJO (3 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Debate ... deny ... and please go on.
> In 2018 March A town called Tathra burnt ...
> If you are suggesting at some time in 2018 or 2019 a controlled burn could have occurred, well the local RFS and evidence suggests you are quite uninformed.
> 
> ...



What a load of crap. Controlled burns were held in many places as a break between Bush and towns. It's not just 2019 that needed it you imbecile.


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## kahuna1 (3 January 2020)

Rainfall last 3 years ...

A place called AUSTRALIA .... Brown is BAD ...






Or is 50% rain over the past 3 years good ? Only a moron would go yes ... whoops one just did !!


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## kahuna1 (3 January 2020)

Last 12 month temperature anomaly and RED ... is very bad ... brown is insane !!






did the brown region in far north NSW catch fire ?

I wonder WHY  ? It was only hotter than hell .... compared to normal.


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## kahuna1 (3 January 2020)

Humidly ... Green is very bad ...
*BLUE is actually shockingly low ..*..

SPOT the BLUE !! Our PM cant see any ... nor Pauline ... or Andrew Constance chief NSW Liberal climate change denier ... his electorate now half burnt pre Tommorow ... 







I think a picture speaks for itself ...
Even to delusional people.

Add ultru low rainfall ..
Ultra low humidity
Massive temp anomalies let alone records.

Lets deny the weather ... or even current conditions had the majority of the impact.

Yep fuel loads ...  *but what imbecile would do a burn off in record low and hot conditions clearly in evidence for 3 years ?  3 years  !! In some areas over 5 years. 
*
In the case of the whole south coast of NSW .... its was NOT safe in 2016 nor 2017 .... and the 2018 fire at Tathra and 2019 ,,, well we hit new lows for rain. So if you dont understand something .... no need to be ... as nasty as you are.

Miss one year ... and its catchup the next if ... you can ... and it was not possible for vast regions of AUSTRALIA as the maps clearly show .

Clearly ... impartially and factually ... ignoring a debate about climate science as that clearly would be pointless.
*
One does not ever burn-off in hot extremely dry periods. 

EVER ..... I lie ... Satan would ... and an arsonist ... or our Prime Minister when he returns from Hawaii or member for Bega who is Andrew Constance ... Liberal NSW. 

Oohh Donald Trump ... so he can get that Orange glow !!! *


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## Smurf1976 (3 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Its not hard to look at the BPM charts for rainfall ... temp and humidity and then please explain WHERE they could have lit a fire ? *The whole burnt region is in the 50-60% average rainfall for 3 years.*




Thing is, it's not the 3 yearly total which matters but how moist the forest floor is at the time of the burnoff.

There are places in Australia which have been flooded to the point of causing significant damage but which still show below average or normal rainfall on a 3 yearly chart for example. They're brown or orange on the map you posted but suffered significant flooding. Not safe to burn? Really?

All this is extremely different if you look at the data for each individual week or day and I can assure you that nobody managing water on a serious basis is looking solely at long term patterns. They do look at them certainly, but they pay close attention to much shorter timeframes as well. Just because you're in an overall wet pattern doesn't mean you can't have a month without rain. Just because you're in a drought doesn't mean you can't have flash flooding or that smaller dams can't fill and spill. Oh yes they can.

To pick a city example, well Adelaide has just recorded significantly below average rainfall for 2019 but that doesn't mean there weren't days with temperatures of 15 degrees, 75%+ humidity and minimal wind. Burning off on the urban fringe could have been done quite safely at those times yes.

Or to highlight the problem with 3 yearly data I could point out that Hobart shows below average rainfall over the past 3 years. Just one thing - the city was flooded to the point of significant damage occurring, cars literally floating around the CBD and power knocked out to inner suburbs for days during 2018 in the city's worst flood since 1960.

And so on. Obviously this is mostly about rural locations not city ones, I picked a couple of cities because comprehensive data and media coverage exists more than it does in the bush so my claims can be verified by anyone who wishes to, but it makes the point that just because you've got below average rainfall over 3 years doesn't mean there hasn't been an period of decent rain during that time and plenty of safe burning off opportunities. That basic pattern hasn't applied to every single place in the country but it has in plenty - there have been places in NSW flooded in the past 18 months for example.

Now there might be some places where literally no wet period occurred but that isn't the majority. Take a look at the week by week or at least monthly maps and it's a very different story. A story of missed opportunities mostly.

That's much like saying that just because there's a bull market doesn't mean there hasn't been even one opportunity to go short any stock since the start of the bull. Oh yes there has.....


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## Smurf1976 (4 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> I am astounded someone like you suggested there was some rain and safe period to do burnoffs.




Because the approach when dealing with real, actual emergencies is to use all available options.

Plan the overall approach well ahead based on expected weather sure but for the detail no, you respond to the actual weather and there's no chance you'll know that with any accuracy until it arrives. If it rains in the middle of January then the plan you implement is the one for rain not the one for the fine and sunny conditions that were most likely. Etc. That's how you capture the opportunities as they arise - by adapting the plan to actual conditions from day to day.

The key to doing that of course is placing authority in the right place. Whoever's making the decision to burn is someone who's at most one step removed from lighting the actual fire. When it fails is when the decision is made by someone sitting in an office in the CBD surrounded by bureaucracy and lacking in real world experience.



> Yep during all time hot and dry conditions as I pointed out.




Look at the weekly or daily charts. Plenty of weather where the problem would be that you'd never get the fire started and plenty of others where burning off wouldn't be a problem.

Now that's not to say there aren't places which had no such opportunities but there's plenty which did and failed to take them, including places which have burned in the past week.


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## sptrawler (4 January 2020)

The problem is, everyone who listens to the media thinks they are an expert, but the media presenters they are quoting are not experts.
Just my opinion.
I heard a few days back, the media saying the military should be sent in to cut fire breaks, then the experts saying that was the last thing they wanted.
Unskilled people moving into an unknown area, to fight a fire with no expertise and no local knowledge of the area.


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## Smurf1976 (4 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The problem is, everyone who listens to the media thinks they are an expert, but the media presenters they are quoting are not experts.



Very true.

One thing though, even to the extent it does come down to climate change - we've known about that for how long now?

We've had, what, 30 years to take action about building codes, trees in the wrong place, overgrown grass, leaf litter building up, firefighting resources and so on.

Saying it's due to climate change, even if 100% correct, is simply a cover all excuse for failing to address the detail of what needs to be done and about which governments have been repeatedly warned.


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## sptrawler (4 January 2020)

The other issue that Im sure will surface soon, will be social media usage to co ordinate pyromaniacs, lighting fires. IMO
The amount of fires starting is ridiculous.IMO


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## Smurf1976 (4 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The other issue that Im sure will surface soon, will be social media usage to co ordinate pyromaniacs, lighting fires. IMO
> The amount of fires starting is ridiculous.IMO



Deliberately started fires is one.

Fires started by acts of stupidity is another. At least they're not deliberate as such but people do some really silly things. There was one a while ago up in the Adelaide hills because someone camping had their generator "explode". Hmm, generators don't normally explode but jerry cans of petrol near campfires do.....

Or just a couple of days ago on the outskirts of Hobart there was one caused by someone disposing of hot coals from a camp fire still burning. I mean seriously, with all the news about fires and someone does that..... There'd have been a bit of panic because there's a lot of bush up there with houses not far away and also the transmission lines from Gordon power station run straight past.

Personally I don't even use a lawnmower if the fire danger is extreme enough since whilst unlikely it's not totally impossible it could catch fire. A relatively cheaply built device (compared to say a car or bus etc) with a fuel tank sitting right next to an engine - odds are it'll be fine but it could plausibly go wrong and it's an unnecessary hazard so I don't take the chance. Same with hitting rocks and causing sparks or something - odds are it won't but no need to risk it. Then I drive down the road and see some clown out with an angle grinder standing next to a pile of dry leaves......  

As for the social media, well I'll simply say that the thought has certainly occurred to me that it's at least possible there has been some co-ordination with all these fires. Yes there's the weather etc conditions and the fuel loads and so on but bottom line is many have been deliberately lit.


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## SirRumpole (4 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Personally I don't even use a lawnmower if the fire danger is extreme enough since whilst unlikely it's not totally impossible it could catch fire.




Personally, I don't use a lawnmower at the moment because there is nothing to mow. 

As for people using angle grinders  ...

https://www.watoday.com.au/national...sparking-massive-bushfire-20110209-1amwp.html


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## chiff (4 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Personally, I don't use a lawnmower at the moment because there is nothing to mow.
> 
> As for people using angle grinders  ...
> 
> https://www.watoday.com.au/national...sparking-massive-bushfire-20110209-1amwp.html



I do not even start the leaf sucker is there is a fire ban.I believe that the ban applies to all outdoor appliances ?If a fallen branch smashes my fence,as it did last week,I wait till a non-fireban day to start the chainsaw.Positive is that I got some firewood.


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## kahuna1 (4 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> There are places in Australia which have been flooded to the point of causing significant damage




Did you know the floods 2019  in Northern Queensland were and ARE 2,581 km from say Orbost Vic fires ?

Are you aware say Wellington NZ is a mere 2,300 km away ? Or Lord Howe Island is 1,230 Km away from the Victorian fires and that's HALF the distance to the even your alluding to ?



Smurf1976 said:


> All this is extremely different if you look at the data for each individual week or day




Your kidding ? I provided NOT average rainfall maps but ANOMALIES maps ... a difference ..., an area that received 50% of the rainfall over 3 years .... and your still suggesting I look at weeklies.

I am so glad your not a fire warden and clearly have no farming experience and not well traveled



Smurf1976 said:


> I picked a couple of cities because comprehensive data and media coverage exists more than it does in the bush so my claims can be verified by anyone who wishes to




Really ... people outside the city are stupid ? the Bureau or Meteorology ... BOM ... only operates or works in your city ? If I was to suggest people from say Tasmania are ALL stupid ... which of course has the same percent of imbeciles as any other region, its just as valid.
.



Smurf1976 said:


> Now there might be some places where literally no wet period occurred but that isn't the majority.




Must be some other MAP ... or planet you exist upon.

Source data BOM maps .... if it rains for a day or even a week ... but its 50% of the 3 year total is a very deep and dire drought. Look at the brown area on the map and get back ... or I will find you a better one for climate skeptics to understand in a sec. 

*Look closely at the map at the end .... correlation between current fires and burnt regions and the RED areas of lowest rain for 3 years ON RECORD. *



Smurf1976 said:


> Just because you're in a drought doesn't mean you can't have flash flooding or that smaller dams can't fill and spill.




Really ... do you belong to some cult ? Are you really lacking comprehension that a 3 year ANOMALY rainfall map of Australia as provided ...  showing vast areas of Brown and that's 50% of regular rain and your talking gibberish about flash flooding and some MAGICAL ability to conduct even if that were true ... conduct a controlled burn during a flash flood.

What religion ? Seriously ..... your kidding ?



Smurf1976 said:


> Or to highlight the problem with 3 yearly data I could point out




You did .... and well ... NSW fire chief and Victorian one have had extensive talks. They have been attacked by the usual suspects.

Both pointed out the above .... rainfall maps ... lack of burn-off opportunities.
Both are the experts as is BOM .... on weather and rainfall and humidity.

In 2018 burn-off season ... both quoted serious fires OUT of control during the traditional safe hazard reduction period. One ... Yankees Gap for example it took 44 days to even GET IT UNDER CONTROL ... and here we have someone actually suggesting some safe window was missed ?

https://aboutregional.com.au/yankees-gap-fire-contained-and-under-control-on-day-44/

It actually took over 90 days for all of it to be put out .... and it started In July .... 2018 .

2019 had record high temps and low rainfall and low humidity ... so to suggest there was some missed window ? Stuff me !!

Now to have stupidity quashed is not possible.

Here is a clear picture. BOM .... map of LOWEST 3 year total rainfall EVER areas of Australia.






RAINFALL DEFICIENCIES.

lowest on record ....

Whilst this thread is about the Victorian Bush-fires which are much smaller than the NSW ones ... to have it suggested, even jokingly that one missed a period to do burn-offs in the most effected areas is at best some delusional departure from reality.

LOWEST on record EVER ... whilst a mere 130 to 150 year period depending on the actual region when its rains at 50% or less over an extended period its not good.

I again ask ... and beg for a fair look ... 
Look closely at the map at the end .... correlation between current fires and burnt regions and the RED areas of lowest rain for 3 years ON RECORD. 

I am not going to even bother suggesting ultra dry ... ultra hot and low humidity are issues because they were already ignored for some religious flooding that never occurred.

Never occurred because .... how can one have flooding when 3 year rain totals are lowest ever on record and some of them go back to 1830 .... close to 200 years all go back to 1900 .... a lot to 1870 ...

Hail ... my favorite deity and its a flood without rain !!


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## IFocus (4 January 2020)

The reduction burns were done to be able to contain fires in a normal climate not extremes right?

Current conditions todays forecast are beyond extremes plus 40 degrees with possible 150 kl winds bare ground will burn in those conditions,


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## IFocus (4 January 2020)

Scientist were talking 30 years ago about adaption no one would listen (remember all the claims about them just wanting funding) maybe now people will.

Still today it counts for nothing just hope no lives are lost, the wild life wont get a choice.


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## moXJO (4 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> The reduction burns were done to be able to contain fires in a normal climate not extremes right?
> 
> Current conditions todays forecast are beyond extremes plus 40 degrees with possible 150 kl winds bare ground will burn in those conditions,



Reduction burns are to protect towns or provide breaks.
You can only backburn so much though. But forest management has been lacking the last 20-25 years. 

Kahuna you are talking out your ar5e.


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## moXJO (4 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> Scientist were talking 30 years ago about adaption no one would listen (remember all the claims about them just wanting funding) maybe now people will.
> 
> Still today it counts for nothing just hope no lives are lost, the wild life wont get a choice.



Adaptation is something I fully support. Personally I think we are a decade too late.


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## kahuna1 (4 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Kahuna you are talking out your ar5e.




The red map did nothing for you ? 

Its hard to write a reply and leave readers  with a clear understanding of how stupid one persons view via non scientific, non factual opinion is. Anyone reading your response is now less informed and learnt not a thing from your rude, bombastic, stupidity on display, illogical  with no factual evidence posts.

Congratulations


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## moXJO (4 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> The red map did nothing for you ?
> 
> Its hard to write a reply and leave readers  with a clear understanding of how stupid one persons view via non scientific, non factual opinion is. Anyone reading your response is now less informed and learnt not a thing from your rude, bombastic, stupidity on display, illogical  with no factual evidence posts.
> 
> Congratulations



Did you use red crayons on that map yourself?
You took a map to try and win an argument. Reality on the ground is that you are wrong. 

There were numerous times over the past 3 years during Autumn months where the conditions were right. And indeed were carried out in many areas. 

For those that are interested back burning will not stop fires. It will lessen intensity. On extremes like today all you can do is stand back.  It will just suck up every fuel source.

But when conditions ease an area that has been previously managed is easier to control. Generally nights are used to control  burn a previously managed area. 

Generally after 2 years (after a hazard reduction burn) a fire will burn through but be manageable. Each year after that the intensity goes up.

It's a vital step in saving houses or controlling fires. 


The more dry an area becomes the more frequently you need to burn. The problem with that is it changes the biodiversity of the area.


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## qldfrog (4 January 2020)

And a very important fact is that if on a terrible day, fire could start and be unstoppable, there would be less of these if existing ones could have been stopped and managed before the extreme weather
Once again for a concrete example
5km from home, a small fire has burnt for a week and would have incinerated mt Nebo with just a change of wind.we just got lucky and got rain.
Had controlled burns been done in the past this fire could have been stopped in the first 2 days, after a week there were forests in fire in a 5km area of the NP.
A disaster in waiting
So yes we will always in Australia have time where sxxt happens, but with prevention, these effects would be limited and instances less frequent


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## kahuna1 (4 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Because I am factually correct.






moXJO said:


> If what you are doing is science, no wonder Australia is stuffed




Average rainfall ... Ignored.
Rainfall deficiency and at 50% ... ignored.
Humidity at 25% below normal ... ignored ...
Lowest 3 year rain total for vast parts of NSW and Victoria ... ignored ...
Temperature averages all time highs ... ignored ...
The 150 year lows rainfall total ... ignored
Maximum high temperature broken ... ignored
Maximum high temp with ultra low humidity and record low 12 month and 36 month rainfall .. Ignored.


Smurf in your case you ignored ALL and ANY data as provided ... whether it was average ... or 150 year lows ... all are quite different in any normal persons universe. I have underlined them ... each are quite different but tell similar stories ...

So what was quoted .. and supported ... Nothing from MoXjo and another ...

Talked about flooding 2,581 km away in far north Qld  ...  from Victorian fires in Orbost .... accepted as relevant to something ...

When questioned  ... a flash flood 450 km away from current burning regions on the 0ther side of the great dividing range was used to claim there was some window for managed burn-offs. A mere 100 mm of rain in a day, yep produces a local flash flood but ... well ... it was 450 km away.

Fire in July which took 90 days to put out ... and 44 days just to be be under control ... Ignored.

Yes ,,,, in my reality ... humidity .... rainfall when its non existent ... ultra high temperatures and fires burning out of control 150 km away from current ones in Victoria are actually relevant.

In some peoples world ... its their own reality.

I do prefer using source data ... and I did so, with links provided.
I got none back. Opinions ... dogma and well ... a planet which is not this one where religious beliefs suddenly have floods in regions where rain was 50% of normal on 1 year 2 year and three year measures. In fact actually 150 year low totals for 3 year periods.

I must read up on what fire fighters use to fight fires. *I thought it was water.*

Obviously not.


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## Smurf1976 (4 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Smurf in your case you ignored ALL and ANY data as provided ... whether it was average ... or 150 year lows ... all are quite different in any normal persons universe. I have underlined them ... each are quite different but tell similar stories ...




For the very simple reason that a burnoff or other activity to reduce fire hazards does not take 3 years to undertake.

Just because rainfall was 50% below average over 3 years doesn't mean there was no period during that time when it did rain, the ground and accumulated debris became damp, the weather was cool and burning off could have been safely done.

Hence why considerable burning off was actually done. Because those doing it are looking at conditions on the day and forecast for the next few days, they're not looking at a 3 year total. As even a casual look at BOM data or even media reports will tell you, yes it has rained in Gippsland during the past 3 years. Less in total than average yes, but there have certainly been relatively wet periods during that time which produced conditions suitable for burning. Actual burnoffs wouldn't have been done if that wasn't the case - the authorities managing them aren't arsonists after all.

Same as someone who trades shares on a short term chart isn't going to go long just because there's been a bull market for the past few years. No, they're going to focus on what the chart tells them is likely right now and in the short term which could well be the exact opposite of the longer term trend.

Averages, in any context, are numbers that have limited practical use beyond things like the financial aspect. Knowing how many passengers your airline carries each year for example is useful information for senior management and it's useful for the accounting department but it's completely useless for the Captain or First Officer who need to know the takeoff weight of the plane right now for the flight that's about to occur and couldn't care less what it was 6 months ago.


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## kahuna1 (4 January 2020)

Really ?

Water is no longer relevant on your universe.
Since half the numbers were absolute new temperature highs ... not averages ... record low rainfall not averages ... lowest ever for 150-170 year ... record lowest ever humidity levels ... not averages  ... do you understand math ? Clearly no idea about statistics or what a rainfall *total* is .... it rains ... add it to the total ...
an absolute low is the same ... record the high and low ... and if say humidity breaks it .. its a NEW LOW.

Same for temp ... NEW highs rarely broken well I lie as 3 days broke the 150 year records in 2019 and we just beat the old high in 2020.

*Water is no longer relevant on your universe !!

Temperature ... water content ... also dont exist in your universe. *

Floods where no rain has fallen and floods from 450 km away or 2,581 km away ... relevant.

Praise the new cult.

Since it hit a new all time record ever high temperature at both my main farms today ... 47.4 C up from 46.3 C set early 2019 and that beat the 2005 record ... of 44.8 C which was .. a mere 10 years old. record go back to 1886.

I would suggest, a brisk run or walk ...  with a 1 litre water bottle in your universe ... since ones needs 10 litres a day at 45 c Let alone 47.4 C and that's  not even moving. Iff outside and a Cow needs 120 litres one with calf 160-200 litres ... maybe your universe can provide 600,000 litres of water I need a day ? Oh water is not an issue on your planet.

*Water is no longer relevant on your universe !! *
I note with amusement Cynic and Sir Rumpole live there along with Mxjo . 

*Good luck on your walk with that 1 litre bottle.  *


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## Smurf1976 (4 January 2020)

If you ever wondered what makes people wary of the climate change issue then just read some of these posts here. Hysterics and an unwillingness to acknowledge anything other than the most extreme situation possible. That's a pretty sure way to make people cautious of the issue at best.

Meanwhile back in the real world, well yes climate change is an issue as are many things.

That it's not and dry in SA during summer doesn't change the fact however that right now the temperature is 17.8 degrees in Adelaide and the humidity is 56%.

Regardless of any change in climate, short term weather still exists and nobody would sensibly say it doesn't. Now in the context of burning off, going to the beach or painting the house it's the weather, not the climate, which drives that decision.

Nobody who went to the beach yesterday when it was over 40 degrees said nah, won't go because it's going to be too cold tomorrow. What they did was respond to the weather at the time as do painters working outside and as do fire or other authorities burning off. They consider the soil and vegetation moisture, temperature, wind speed etc right now and forecast for the next few days, they don't worry about what's happening 6 months earlier or later.

The flaw in your argument is explained simply by saying that yes, burnoffs really were done in the drought areas within the last 3 years. The issue is that there weren't sufficient resources to do enough of them within the available window of time and in one case they were obstructed by protesters.

Meanwhile in the real world the fire fighters are using everything they can get which might in some way help. Police and the military are doing their best to keep people safe or evacuate them. Volunteers and business are doing what they can to keep food, water, fuel etc available where it's needed. AEMO has cracked open the proverbial piggy bank full of 5 cent pieces and had a look under the cushions to find a few more, pushed everything that still works to the limit and the lights have stayed on in NSW. And so on. Everyone's using everything they've got, nobody's knocking back partial solutions on ideological grounds.


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## kahuna1 (4 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> If you ever wondered what makes people wary of the climate change issue then just read some of these posts here.




I read your opinions in utter disbelief.



Smurf1976 said:


> Hysterics and an unwillingness to acknowledge anything other than the most extreme situation possible. That's a pretty sure way to make people cautious of the issue at best.




Talking factual ... events not opinions is ... hysteria ?



Smurf1976 said:


> The flaw in your argument is explained simply by saying that yes, burnoffs really were done in the drought areas within the last 3 years. The issue is that there weren't sufficient resources to do enough of them within the available window of time and in one case they were obstructed by protesters.




I accpet SOME not may areas were hazard reduced. As a long term resident of the areas right now on fire ... this did NOT occur in Victoria areas burning right now, nor the far South Coast of NSW. I even provided the prime example of WHY !!

As a person who knows the Cobargo RFS captain along with Bega and Tathra ... and Merimbula and Eden ...  your opinion ...  *The issue is that there weren't sufficient resources to do enough of them within the available window of time and in one case they were obstructed by protesters. 
*
The heads of both RFS in NSW and Victoria have categorically spoken about this facebook theory and dismissed it. They as mentioned and linked previously said it was NOT safe to do the actual burn-offs in many now hit regions.

When someone insists on their version of Water not being an issue .... or as the NSW RFS actually going into detail about 17 fires during the previous 2 years during controlled burn times being .... OUT OF CONTROL and it NOT being safe ...

Google Yankee gap .... 44 days to get a fire in July 2018 just under control ...

your whole opinion ... ignoring not only humidity ... rain ... temperature and actual fires is absurd.

Possibly rather than speaking out of your arse, it might be an idea to speak to say John Cullen the far south coast NSW  RFS regional guy or say Steve H$#%@  the Merimbula fire and rescue guy or any of the others.

Your narrative, dismissing any facts ... on humidity or climate ... or what is safe is and has been quite violently and *totally dismissed by the fire services of both NSW and Victoria .*

Its actually offensive to gaslight ... and project a delusion ... to suit your view and opinion. I know Steve fairly well and he is a man in his 50's who has been with the RFS for 30 plus years. His view is that I shouldn't be speaking to morons, but ... heck he knows not a thing.

He and surrounding RFS did not control burn as much as they would have liked 2017-2019 due to extreme heat ... during winter and spring and record highs in 2018 beaten again in 2019. That is the bottom 400 km of NSW and adjoining Victoria regions.

But of course your Gaslighting and projection despite Vic head of RFS and NSW head of RFS saying the very same, is NOT valid on your universe.

So too that heat and lack of rain, record low rain fall and BLAMING protestors ? Are you serious ? Obviously you are ... well ... the three people and groups managing most of the land ... National Parks and State Forests then the Local Govt who defers to the RFS .. claiming it was aliens ? that stopped them ? No what was your whole dialogue based around ? Oh Greenies .... well State Forests did do some burnn offs in the Eden Area 2016 and 2017 and it was scary ... any protestors ... well ... non existent .. and well they are warned via signs about the dangers and if they wish to protest in a burning forest as your suggesting ,, the state forest guys would have laughed at them.

They are ... to be blunt well deserving to be on your planet.These mythical FOx/Sky news people who disrupted planned burn offs when fire heads speaking to National Parks and State Forests ... decided it would be idiotic and unsafe to do them. Control Burns .. that is.

I dont think I am hysterical, then again I tolerate fools only on the 31st Feb.

Signs of planned burn-offs go up weeks in advance .... then roads are blocked ... then they double check no one is stupid enough to have ignored it ... and police have zero tolerance for this. Then they burn ...

If you had any idea which clearly you dont ... you would not be sprouting BS !!

Greenies actually understand burning off is carbon neutral ... burn off releases CO2 ... new growth ... absorbs CO2 ... net ZERO CO2 .


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## cynic (4 January 2020)

It seems that there exists a universe in which every day is 31st February!
No prizes for guessing whom the self confessed resident of said universe happens to be!

Edit: It appears there exist some rather convenient logistical issues impacting one's ability to retrieve that particular Facebook post (How unsurprising!!).
Further information on this matter may be found here: http://joannenova.com.au/2020/01/ab...-worried-about-climate-change-than-wildfires/


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## macca (4 January 2020)

I cannot understand how such incompetent people are in a position of authority. 

Kahuna is using public info to state a case that he believes to be true, unfortunately the info being published about being unsuitable to hazard reduce in winter gives the impression we actually have an option.

The ONLY option available is we can burn at least 10% of everything off Every winter without fail or Mother Nature will burn it off in the summer time.

If the dingalings do not now how to conduct a control burn when it is 15c to 18c then they can come and ask me, I knew how to do this when I was 12 and nothing has changed since.

Every experienced bushie knows how to do this safely, the Aboriginals knew how to do it, the early farmers knew how to do it................. talk about egomaniacs, in NSW they basically told all the experienced captains to piss off or do what you are told.

The captains and a lot of crews said we quit, we are not going to stand in front of 20 metre high fire walls when we  Know how to fix it in Winter, I would do the same, wouldn't you ?


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## macca (4 January 2020)

cynic said:


> It seems that there exists a universe in which every day is 31st February!
> No prizes for guessing whom the self confessed resident of said universe happens to be!
> 
> Edit: It appears there exist some rather convenient logistical issues impacting one's ability to retrieve that particular Facebook post (How unsurprising!!).
> Further information on this matter may be found here: http://joannenova.com.au/2020/01/ab...-worried-about-climate-change-than-wildfires/





I think they believe they are helping but someone needs to explain about the Aussie bush. 

By burning from May to August every year we reduce the scrub which links the forests together. 

If we regularly burn under the trees it stops the fires from crowning and clears the undergrowth so that the flora all gets a life cycle in.

Forest that has been burnt in winter will have heaps of flowers in springtime, quite a few plants will not germinate unless burnt or in ash. Most need the sun to reach the ground to trigger their growth.

Near home we had a fire go through an area last year, this year we have flannel flowers in their thousands but no fire, no flowers will apply in two years time.

Our bush has a definite cycle create by the aborigines and we cannot expect it to change just to suit us


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## moXJO (4 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> I read your opinions in utter disbelief.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I'm on the south coast and you are full of sht


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## Smurf1976 (4 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Signs of planned burn-offs go up weeks in advance




I don't know the approach used in NSW but one would hope that it's flexible enough to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. As such any warning to the public will be an intent to burn during a certain period but the actual date won't be known until very shortly before it's done due to the need to have suitable weather.

Over planning would be one sure way to end up with no opportunities to do it yes. I don't know but hopefully the authorities aren't using that as an excuse.


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## cynic (4 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> I'm on the south coast and you are full of sht



Perhaps you reside in an alternate universe.

Does February ever exceed 29 days in your universe?

If not, then that might, perchance, be the reason for such variant perspectives.


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## kahuna1 (4 January 2020)

I note ...
as of 10.53 pm ... the Vic fire has leapfrogged into NSW by what looks like 30 km of the 50 to Eden.

Not a debate ... an observation from a local .. State forests Yambulla and so on ... tinder dry ... National Parks ... along the coast the same. Fuel load ... for whatever reason you wish to choose massive,

Not sure as a resident for many years, family in the region since 1835 ... but I am still not a local ... I do wonder the region close to Eden the state forest last burn-off and that was a close run disaster in 2016 ... adjoins state forest and national park and nature reserves ;..  all the way to Tathtra which burnt to the ground or close to it in March 2018 ...

My concern, is what tomorrow will bring ? Will the leapfrog of 30 km in 2 hrs be repeated as it was in say Cobargo another area that well burnt to the ground and Yowrie people got NO warning not emergency warning only to flee to Cobargo and it in flames 3 hours latter and fled to Bermagui ... on the cost and that now evacuated. Where will tomorrow morning be ? Will the Merimbula area and surrounds with ultra steep not back-burnt for 5 years be on fire ? 

I have no idea. So too even RFS ... and whilst amusing being told I am quoting off some google search ... or whatever ...  its pretty irrelevant your opinion.

As they say everyone has an opinions ... they are like assholes and we all think others opinions stink.

I sadly speak with a little experience in the region and many many days and nights in various parks and reserves and camping I suppose more than most the past 20 years. 

Debating someone who visited once, or saw a fire once ... is somewhat besides the point. I note ex PM called it climate hysteria which has been repeated here a few times. SCOMO called them city based Climate Imbeciles and a few other choice words and NOW ... he is calling in the Army reserve ... 

I hope for the best, had a few very close calls last few days on o loved ones. One missed it by 10 minutes and it was only sheer luck they evacuated as it was on the 31st Dec . HOUSE LOST .... all possessions lost and so it goes. I suppose I have 10 pretty good friends with similar stories but only one is a total loss of house, the others have had business's destroyed and lost 70% of yearly income as town evacuated in peak holiday season.

Whilst a distraction your comments and views, however quaint ... absurd and city based non science backed, I do wonder what tomorrow and next few weeks brings for my town of the last 10 years ... just moved to the farms .... Merimbula .. prior to that 15 years in Tathra which well it burnt out in March 2018. Only 69 houses lost there. My friend who fled Yowrie ... lost her home. She was in her 80's in a wheel chair to boot. Friend in Quama actually stayed and defended and well .. I must tell her and her hubbie off ... it was close. Friends in Batemans bay ... close ... Mogo well lost business literally that time.

I hope ... Bermagui ... Eden and Merimbula, Pambula and Tura are spared. 

Despite valliant efforts by RFS and idiotic insulting crap on this thread, even they have not much hope of stopping it if conditions do not improve vastly. It could be like the Cobargo stuff ... and Batemans Bay region a 50 km chomp all at once.

As a country lad, with ties to a few regions now, people with opinions as to who does what often are absurd. Knowing how a burnoff is announced and done is something one learns over many years. Whilst some of the fires that just broke the containment lines are NSW Forrest regions ... the other prong is nation Parks so RFS in this situation with the assets takes the lead, the region from Vic Border to just south of Eden is a total PIG for trying to stop anything. Some spots have great camping spots over very steep ravines down to rivers and lakes, but trying to defend .... let alone a controlled burn in dry conditions is really not  possible. Not even the bravest would suggest a controlled burn in anything other than very wet conditions.

Strange to be ... well ... questioned ... told I am full of BS when I likely could describe and identify most of the coastal and inland bush for 300 km up to say Arualeun and Braidwood near Moruya and Mogo.

Better run ... the worst case fire prediction map ... just got broken by about 10 km closer to Eden and I have calls to make


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## sptrawler (4 January 2020)

Well they wont need any controlled burning, in a lot of areas for quite some time, after this lot finishes.


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## qldfrog (4 January 2020)

There is a very dangerous game playing out:
There are ifocus and kahuna1 by the thousands and on all news pages, happyly typing from their AC study, eithin 10km from cbds explaining us how it is and how it should be.
Most of them never cleared any bush, unable to manage a fire bigger than a gas bbq, never holding a chainsaw or obviously a fire hose.
It is one thing to have them talking about negative gearing or CGT, but when their incompetence risk the life of your family or your lifetime work, the anger got murderous.
This is not really a left right situation, but still has a strong imbalance as common sense and practicality is seldom a Green or Labour attribute.
We are really going to see another scission between the cities and the countryside
Close the gate will not be restricted to mining
Add water, fire and vegetation, and basically how these extra laws added year after years by states and worse councils


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## kahuna1 (4 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> There are ifocus and kahuna1 by the thousands and on all news pages, happyly typing from their AC study, eithin 10km from cbds explaining us how it is and how it should be.




You are an imbecile ...

Seriously ...  Its strange I know the region fairly well.

I merely wish to place a perspective on the region and reality.

I have friends in Eden ... so too Merimbula and know a lot of the people so a turd ... bainting me ...

Well the lines just jumped another 5  km closer to Eden ..

I cant upload the RFS site ... the map 

https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me


but  hmm ... would a non local know the owner of the Cafe at the Eden wharfs name  ? Or the Greeks who own the fish and chip shop ... or the best local bartender in Eden Fishermans ... well she just moved to Merimbula bowling club ... Hi Sonija ... favorite beach ... Tug boat Captian ... most of the ab divers and well ... most of the fishermen and Chris who runs the best mob.

Nah I have no local connections obviously !! Can do the same for the next 150 kms if not 200 or so North.

Internet and this site troll infested.


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## Smurf1976 (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> You are an imbecile ...




The difference is the calm and rational discussion of something, anything, versus running around throwing stones and screaming.

In any emergency situation that's not of any help whatsoever. It just uses up time and effort to achieve nothing whilst distracting anyone with some actual ideas on how to improve the situation.

What, exactly, is your solution to avoid future fires?

Not your plan to get someone elected or cover someone's backside but your plan to prevent fires?

Mine? As I've said, I have no perfect solution but rather a lot of partially effective ones. Do all of them and combined they'd bring about a substantial improvement. Imperfect but better than what we have now.


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## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

I did look closely at the prediction maps ...

It just jumped 5 km beyond predicted map on the RFS live site ....
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me

I now note the altered advice and evacuation of Eden where the police just knocked on a friends door. Off to Merimbula which is about 30 km or so  north ...

RFS site .... v Police ... as a local fire coming from the South ... pretty much a no brainer to head north with three kids and pets.

Very happy this friend got advice, then again Eden is not Yowrie or even Cobargo, its 50 times the size of the first and Yowrie other than local shop and a few other things tiny ... Cobargo used to have a few shops along the Princess Highway ... about half gone. 

Not questioning ever the service of the boys and girls in blue ... NEVER .... 

Just a bit of a schmuzzle the emergency system or lack of it for some ... 

Hmmm sleep will not come I suspect for a while. Fingers crossed. 

Fire seems a mere 2-3 km from Boydtown which is ... well a decent caravan park there now ... likely deserted  ... old Inn they did up and a subdivision which has been a pink elephant for 20 years but still has I suppose 50 houses spread over a vast area .... 

I did get some twit on the Vic fire thread alluding that I was not local. Strange to be able to describe things. Boydtown inn ... dining room one end ... function rooms the other ... with a nice bar between fronts onto the Eden Harbor which is lovelely and well protected. 

The beach ... a must ... in moonlight ... full moon go swimming and cup some sand and water ... its full of sparkles .... some shiny pyrite I think in the sand and its magical. 

View from the front looks out over 2 Km of water to Eden itself ... 

*Advice*


If you are in the area of *Womboyn, Kiah, Narrabarba, Towamba, Burragate, Eden and surrounds*, you are at risk.
It is too late to leave.
Seek shelter as the fire approaches. Protect yourself from the heat of the fire.


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## moXJO (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Seriously ...  Its strange I know the region fairly well.



Then you should have known there were hazard reduction burns done in may last year.


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## Smurf1976 (5 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well they wont need any controlled burning, in a lot of areas for quite some time, after this lot finishes.




Bottom line is the trees are going, vegetation is accumulating, and ultimately either it rots, is removed or it burns.

If it's hot and dry enough then it won't rot which means either it's physically removed or it will burn, the only choice being whether that's done voluntarily in a planned manner in Winter or involuntarily on a random date in Summer.

Aboriginals worked this out a very long time ago. Shame we seem unable to learn anything from them.


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## sptrawler (5 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Bottom line is the trees are going, vegetation is accumulating, and ultimately either it rots, is removed or or burns.
> 
> If it's hot and dry enough then it won't rot which means either it's physically removed or it will burn, the only choice being whether that's done voluntarily in a planned manner in Winter or involuntarily on a random date in Summer.
> 
> Aboriginals worked this out a very long time ago. Shame we seem unable to learn anything from them.



It has become a political issue, which is very welcomed by certain sectors, it will be interesting if certain sectors are found wanting at a later date IMO.


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## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

Seriously Smerf ...

Your talking quite obviously to a local with ... well some knowledge of the region ... fire procedures and whilst you may think I am being hysterical because friends or loved ones are under threat, it is actually absurd your whole viewpoint.

All of it ... controlled burn-offs did not occur due to greenies ? 

Ignoring Fire chiefs reasoning in favor of your pet view ? 

Dismissing totally all data on rain or lack of it or temperature or humidity ...

then inserting absurd illogical and stupid rubbish about floods 2,581 KM away or one 450 km away over the great dividing range to say Orbost Victoria and still persisting ? 

When someone says something really stupid, either refute it with facts, as I did and when they come back again and again ... obviously your dealing with either a moron who is unaware of even hand presented facts or ... someone with the IQ of a pumpkin.

I think you fall in the latter category due to your shared views about virtually everything. 

As I said ... opinions are like assholes ... everyone has one and thinks theirs dont stink and others do.
Presenting factually based Rain ... temperature and humidity ... even fire data did not work ...

Your opinions are non factually based or even remotely rational ... in your universe a wet newspaper burns the same way as one subjected to record hot and dry conditions. 

PUMPKIN it is !!

Trying to converse or convince someone becomes well ... futile and I wave the white or in your case the Orange Pumpkin flag and retreat.

Calling an absurd theory ... about a planet where laws of nature and thermodynamics dont operate is your reality, not sadly the rest of the nation.

Debating if its dry ... hot  .... whilst 10 million hectares and 11 now ... has just burnt should seem virtually insane if not absurd. Calling someone talking gibberish about protestors and floods where floods did not occur is ... well pointless.

Put your Tin hat on ... paint it Orange like a pumpkin and please get tested for cognitive senile decline.


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## sptrawler (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Seriously Smerf ...
> 
> Your talking quite obviously to a local with ... well some knowledge of the region ... fire procedures and whilst you may think I am being hysterical because friends or loved ones are under threat, it is actually absurd your whole viewpoint.
> 
> ...



Is there any wonder the left are not getting traction?


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## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Then you should have known there were hazard reduction burns done in may last year.




Hilarious ... that's why the fire just jumped 20km to Boydtown !!


That's also why they evacuated Eden ... 50 km North of the Vic border.

Over the last eight years, according to its website, the NPWS carried out hazard reduction burns in NSW parks and reserves covering more than 680,000 hectares  since the coast is a National parks ... part of this claimed total ... was the Tathra region and associated fires but they were March 2018 and 90 k North of Eden.

In total NSW has 7 million hectares of national parks ... a vast chunk is between Eden and Vic border and most of it is impossible if not inconceivable to even try to hazard reduce in current conditions.

Last one ... Nadgee was burnt off in a reduction 15 or so years ago ... there was an out of control fire some years ago ...  Wombyn lake region which yep hit some national park ... is an out of control bush-fire counted ?

Scattered State forest operations as they cut and clear but .... well two got really out of control post 2015 ... do they count ... one in the middle of Yambulla which was amusing. I even know Chris the guy in charge of State Forests down there. I think Last time I spoke to him and it was a whole ago he got a new toy ... a D9 dozer or maybe even a D10 ...

Ahh bait all you like.
Sad it is ...



As Wombyn ... is horrid for any even planned burn-off and some areas even worse ... your mythical burn-off just occurred ... NOT May 2019 ... but 4-5th January 2020.

Unless your counting as national parks I now see is out of control bush-fires seem to count as controlled burns  !! They just did 5 million hectares late 2019 early 2020  !! Yipee.


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## sptrawler (5 January 2020)

A fire jumps 20klm? Several seem to be doing it.
Somehow the Government should be able to stop it?


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## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> A fire jumps 20klm? Several seem to be doing it.
> Somehow the Government should be able to stop it?




Possibly they could send you and anyone your love, which seems unlikely .... to stand with a water bottle in front of the next breakout. 

Your glib compassion and lack of empathy deserves to go home.


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## qldfrog (5 January 2020)

Of interest, this is what the fires look like from space, in the real non fake news..no it is not red or orange


As if the drama was not enough on the ground, we have these glowing red fake "sat pictures" push thru all the usual culprit from news ltd to the guardian..what is the agenda?


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## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That's how "greenies" stop things in practice




As 150,000 more hectares ignited its ... the Greenies yet again.
All other data is ignored. Record heat ... record low rainfall ...

As one region that will burn for months just caught alight, much to my horror in NSW the steep diabolical regions which require very wet conditions to ever even contemplate a controlled burn, that too is ignored for the dialogue.

Eden and its surrounds ... right up to the edge of town ... from the Victorian border incinerated.
Fires due to terrain ... steep inaccessible regions say around Yambulla will burn until a torrential downpour occurs ... or they as sadly is clear will be a tinder box for embers to eventually ignite similar regions just as dry surrounding Merimbula/ Tura and well all the way up the great dividing range.

Predicting the extent even for the experts and RFS ... and Vic ones .... is not possible.
Denying climate change or even debating hotter dryer conditions seems the idiot dogma of most.
Even disputing of denying actual rain ... heat .. humidity ... are to be ignored

Blaming Greenies or some pet theory of setting a steep escarpment alight to hazard reduce is so absurd and insulting and idiotic it defies rational comment other than clearly displayed dementia and senile decline on display. Are you serious about setting say a steep region lush with vegetation  ... but dead dry .. insanely dry ..due to climate issues ? I asked ... presented data ... and all was ignored.

Your kidding. Seriously.

Each has their views and I note ... with amusement some of the jibes and views. One who resides supposedly on the South Coast when the IP address was checked I thought Golbourn and the Jail was on the Slopes not the south coast let alone the Far south coast.

That a region ... from the Victorian border to Eden just ignited and unexpectedly ignited the extent is Triple the predicted region by RFS ... TRIPLE ... TRIPLE their worst case .... the area is  30 km wide and 50 km deep. At TRIPLE least even the worst estimate on ember spread. This is not about blame ... not at all ... just scope ... SCOPE ...


I am sure some will choose to call this hysterical or whatever as they require changing of their adult nappies.

It seems sadly unlikely to hold much hope despite brave and valiant efforts by the amazing firies and emergency workers to not realistically expect what is left, will not also be under threat in coming days weeks and months.

To ignore 150 year low rainfall-totals ... seems petty if not idiotic at this stage.
To lay blame on some pet theory about what the aboriginals did seems equally absurd given the lack of any and all historical records. So too mythical greenies and its their fault ...

We .. as a nation ...  likely have a burnt total that is going to be 5 times ANY previously seen.
Ignoring climate issues, rain ... humidity ... stomping your foot .. calling me a greenie or inventing floods ...


Pathetic.
That we have seen minimal loss of human life is fantastic and to be applauded.
Wildlife and property losses another matter.

I am sure someone will soon catch onto the scope of the overnight fires size and reflect. To be told as I was by someone as I relayed my horror and fears for loved ones and loved region ... that some mythical ... burn-back occurred or being told I was full of shi% ... a record in print of stupid people on display.

Seriously ... thanks for the distraction as I watched from a distance ... made a few calls ... but the scope whilst mainly uninhabited the 150.000 hectares and sparsely dotted with not much in the way of buildings other than Wombyn and sparsely settled mainly around the Princess highway, its size and scope is ... what it is.

Keep denying and minimizing climate issues and all of them.
Please keep up your idiotic pet theories about control burning a mountain with steep sides, or wild coastal ravines full of vegetation also being candidates for control burns in record low 150 low rainfall periods.

Dispute ... deny ... and please go change your adult nappies . Pragmatic reality which does not fit your pet theory ... data which upsets your view ... wow your nappy must be very full.


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## moXJO (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> As 150,000 more hectares ignited its ... the Greenies yet again.
> All other data is ignored. Record heat ... record low rainfall ...
> 
> As one region that will burn for months just caught alight, much to my horror in NSW the steep diabolical regions which require very wet conditions to ever even contemplate a controlled burn, that too is ignored for the dialogue.
> ...



Honestly you are an idiot.
No one mentioned hazard burning in un accessible remote areas. The fact that you even thought that shows you are clueless.
Towns were lost because someone dropped the ball.
There were reduction burns in may. This will have to do because I didn't take photos while it was going on:

https://www.begadistrictnews.com.au/story/6110114/hazard-reduction-burns-begin-across-south-coast/

https://www.southcoastregister.com....ction-burns-undertaken-throughout-the-region/



> Since winter 2018, more than 56,000 hectares have been treated across NSW which has provided greater protection to more than 46,000 properties.




But throw up another map or change the argument again to suit your purpose. You make points off arguments no one was having in the first place.

You are far far from reality


----------



## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Honestly you are an idiot.




Thanks ... How is Golburn jail ? 

*Poole Rd*
Updated: 5 Jan 2020 10:01
30462 ha
*Border Fire*
214221 ha

So 245.000 hectares just these TWO  overnight add the spread of others and 100% of last year TOTAL well above 300,00 hectares .

Yes I am an idiot as you told me as I worried about this.
Enjoy your chocolate for favors. 


Seems I underestimated by a  factor of 100% ... being conservative to cries of being called hysterical. 
Just correction my understating the overnight totals as the official numbers are presented whilst I am yet again being called an idiot.


----------



## IFocus (5 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> There is a very dangerous game playing out:
> There are ifocus and kahuna1 by the thousands and on all news pages, happyly typing from their AC study, eithin 10km from cbds explaining us how it is and how it should be.
> Most of them never cleared any bush, unable to manage a fire bigger than a gas bbq, never holding a chainsaw or obviously a fire hose.




What?

Unlike you my family have lived in Australian bush for generations, father / brother farmers, I have lived in the bush on 5 ares for 25 years, before that worked in the out back for nearly 10 years, during which I out race a fire for at least 25 kms in the NW.

In my shed I had a collection of chains saws as did my father and brother (they clear felled timer for 20 years)

Its beyond my good character to repeat the abuse at you and others here who keep shooting the messenger.

BTW its not a fcking political issue Australia is burning lives lost heading towards 2000 homes lost and you lot are making up excuses.

Some one who is dealing with reality is the insurance company's as they started raising premiums years ago.


----------



## moXJO (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Thanks ... How is Golburn jail ?
> 
> *Poole Rd*
> Updated: 5 Jan 2020 10:01
> ...



Do you remember the original argument?

Not enough was done. Keep harping though


----------



## moXJO (5 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> BTW its not a fcking political issue Australia is burning lives lost heading towards 2000 homes lost and you lot are making up excuses.
> 
> .



It's not excuses it's accountability. Climate change is a bloody excuse. Thinking carbon reduction in Australia would have done anything to prevent fires is lunacy. Actual acknowledgement that we need some serious reviews in how things are managed in an environment that is changing quickly is what's needed.

It started off with the blame been laid at the feet of climate change. And guess what, there is fck all we can do about that except management strategies.
The climate will keep changing and it's beyond Australia control. That doesn't mean we shouldn't reduce pollution. But we need some reality here


----------



## chiff (5 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> What?
> 
> Unlike you my family have lived in Australian bush for generations, father / brother farmers, I have lived in the bush on 5 ares for 25 years, before that worked in the out back for nearly 10 years, during which I out race a fire for at least 25 kms in the NW.
> 
> ...



Have you got one of those early chainsaws that they used to wheel up to the trees?Incidentally I got a text from ING wanting to know if I wanted to make a claim (for the fires) .They must go thru postcodes that may be affected..Did not affect us.


----------



## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

HI red . Joules ...

I did point out those issues as best I could about climate abnormal margins being smashed .. and got the usual Gaslighting stuff back ... I accept at these times irrelevant.

PM Morrison news conference was, well pathetic and rightly so, and at least called out for it. To be denying and calling climate issues raised as hysteria and lunatics a mere 3 weeks ago, off in Hawaii days ago and now revealed his defense minister in Bali supporting a severe case of sunburn, amusing !! Her throat looked like a red roosters !!

Since we have been howling, as you say, at the moon, for a while, years ... its beside the point today.

It is all to be denied ... debated as PM claims today he believes yet at the recent Madrid climate conference the role of Australia in destroying any progress was a standout and he even defended Trump and his climate policies. A man .. Trump .. . who ... well ... has a coal barons uneducated wife as lead ambassador for USA in climate issues at the UN and the USA EPA being run by a coal lobbyist ? Our PM ... is as pathetic as say the hardest hit area and its local State Member ... who last month was busy denying and downplaying climate issues and today pretending he cares.

Trump at least with the Orange glow of late will blend into total invisibility !!

All irrelevant totally today ... other than shall we say disbelief our PM defended a person who mocks openly climate change and renewable energy ... Ohh those windmills ... said Trump ... echoed by PM Morrison and his cabinet and vomit on ex PL Howard who Morrison speaks to every day and just spoke to him .... far out ..

I just added Vic and NSW totals up ... not just the ones in my stomping ground far South coast which expanded 245,000 hectares for the big ones another 140,000 for the smaller ones and the snowy totals expanded an astounding 180,000 more hectares its the Victorian total just announced at 900,000 hectares in total ... another 280,000 in a day . More...


That is not any relevance ... NONE of it.
*Other than things must and should change*. Unlikely of course. 

For most, like Redrob and others we are resigned to not a 1.5 degree by 2100 but minimum 3 , and being honest 4 plus is my total.

I do accept our role in stopping this globally alone is NOT possible. Being however the largest supporter of the denial side is what we are. Under PM Howard who amusingly still seems to be pulling someone strings as they speak daily despite loosing his own seat as did Tiny Abbot ... or is it Toady Abbott ?

The total is minimum ... in a single day .... close to 800,000 hectares burnt.

That's 8,000 sq KM or a strip of land 8 km wide from Sydney to Melbourne ...
or similar width burnt strip Sydney to Brisbane.

*The total is minimum ... in a single day .... close to 800,000 hectares burnt*.

This total is rising and the situation around the Eden and Vic fires is not a good one.
Maye it hits a million hectares in a day.


Maybe the guy who doesn't like my punctuation who denied all and every climate changing chemical reaction can come back from his job at the call center in India ? When asked what specifically he disagreed with on climate issues on 20 topics, he disputed and refuted all 20. Chemical reactions included with Satellite data and a quaint view of 97% of climate scientists work and data. They are all wrong !!

He can join the raucous objections from the others today and the old person who seems to be taking an inordinately long time to have his nappy changed ...to the guy with the IP address inside Golbourn Jail the special protected unit ...

Ahhh

Time for a holiday .... Bali ... or Hawaii ? Sadly dont like either. Can I look like our defense minister with a bright red throat !!


----------



## moXJO (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> HI red . Joules ...
> 
> I did point out those issues as best I could about climate abnormal margins being smashed .. and got the usual Gaslighting stuff back ... I accept at these times irrelevant.
> 
> ...



Keep blabbering.

https://volunteerfirefighters.org.au/land-management-and-cool-burning



> Land management is a serious issue that needs to be addressed by government and it is not limited to bushfire hazard reduction.
> 
> In this video, the VFFA President and Shooters Fishers and Farmers candidate for Monaro, Mick Holton talks to Barry Aitchison about land management.
> 
> Mick says that the NSW Government has failed to provide appropriate land management. The costs of this failure are hard to calculate, they include huge expenditure on firefighting, increased insurance premiums and reactive rather than proactive expenditure to correct land management disasters such as weeds, feral animals, water yield problems.




Ask your supposed fireman mate who Mick Holton is. Perhaps you can ride your rainbow unicorn over to see him.


----------



## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Mick Holton




That explains a lot ...
why your NOT such a nice person ...

Fringe shooters party idiot from Cooma  was the response to your question.

Whackjob ... Nutter ... also used... it went further ... but ... well he might get shot as Holton not thought of as stable even by the fireies he is meant to represent so it seems.

Blowhard ...  I do love that term ...

I do note shooters and shooters party policy about burning just like the Aboriginals supposedly did. Pity about the climate' current conditions  ... in fact they  ignore it. As to the wildlife they shoot it if they can, eat it ... with displayed results. 

At least I understand what gun covered nest you come from.

I always suspected you were the "Milat" type ...

I am not surprised.


----------



## Belli (5 January 2020)

I have no source to verify this information but place it merely for information.  From ABC website by Laura Tingle yesterday:

"To give some scale to what has happened here so far, international media outlets have been reporting the 2018 California fires burnt 2 million acres; the 2019 Amazon fires 2.2 million; and the 2019 Siberian fires 6.7 million.

So far Australia's 2019/20 fires have burnt 12 million acres."

Usual claims of ABC bias to come I assume.


----------



## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

Belli said:


> So far Australia's 2019/20 fires have burnt 12 million acres."




Yep ... and add another 2 million acres or 800,000 hectares to the total and we are not even halfway through the fire season.


----------



## moXJO (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> That explains a lot ...
> why your NOT such a nice person ...
> 
> Fringe shooters party idiot from Cooma  was the response to your question.
> ...




Experienced  fire chief as well. President of the volunteer fire firefighters association
Fought for pay for volunteers and identified lack of management a while back. 
More real world experienced then you moonbeam.


----------



## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

Mo Xjo ///

as a shooter party person now revealed ...

DO you have doomsday prep site ?
As for your mate ...

*Blowhard* was a word used a lot. 

He made the one ... the Shooter part rep for Bega look sane. Impossible to do I thought as ours was a total NJ. When I went to vote at the local school, I sadly admit the guy handing out how to votes I knew and, well he cornered me ... so alluding to knowing a fringe cult political party person who ... well ... is not thought of well is what it is.

He offered to let me meet the gent in question and amusingly you just brought up his relation, from inland NOT South coast .... Moanaro ..  who is even 
nuttier  !!

Sadly I had to listen to 10 minutes of seriously deluded conspiracy they rubbish as the line had stopped moving. Others in the line tried to pretend they had trodden on dog poo and cleaned their shoes. It was worse than being forced to listen to a telemarketer. 

I was agog at the rubbish he spewed, much like all your postings.

Moral of the story is never to look one in the eyes ... let alone speak to them or listen to their dribble. A few kult sites down here for them  Tanja and Kiah and other places where cults are the norm.



So do you plan for the end of the earth as a shooter and fishers party cult members ?

Do you prep for the end of the world ?

Is that what makes you so angry all the time ?

Or was it some other issue ?


----------



## IFocus (5 January 2020)

chiff said:


> Have you got one of those early chainsaws that they used to wheel up to the trees?Incidentally I got a text from ING wanting to know if I wanted to make a claim (for the fires) .They must go thru postcodes that may be affected..Did not affect us.




Glad to hear you are safe

Dad built and used one in the 50's before chainsaws come along basically a circular saw on wheels coupled to a 4 stroke engine balanced some where in between he rebuilt it about 15 years ago (dont have a pic handy)and we all had a laugh as he wondered what the department of health and safety would say.

Strangely he never had a near death experience using it as difficult as it was but had two very near death experiences with his chain saws. Broken limbs coming down later hung up in other trees.

He always used to use McCulloch  chainsaws heavy brute of a thing they were.


----------



## moXJO (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Mo Xjo ///
> 
> as a shooter party person now revealed ...
> 
> ...



I've met the man on numerous occasions. 
And once again you are full of it.

Never been a hunter, shooter or Fisher. But if you are opposed I'll seriously take a look.
Perhaps point out some of their policies you dislike the most off the top of your head.


----------



## IFocus (5 January 2020)

Further to QF I grew up in the bush we never had power connected to our house until I was 15.

My nearest friend was 6 km away

To others there was no reduction burns in our area ever we had Jarrah trees right up to the back and front doors place or area wasn't threaten by fire.

If one started people could put it out.

Note the run off average in the period I am talking about pre 1975







Until there is a serious acceptance the climate is changing how can planning be carried out for adaption?


----------



## Belli (5 January 2020)

Some may find interesting the investment "climate" from a firm which has the main objective of making money for its clients.

https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/en-axj/insights/climate-change_en_AXJ


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> As 150,000 more hectares ignited its ... the Greenies yet again.




If you dropped the political agenda and actually read the post to which you responded then you’d be aware that the “greenies” referred to are not the Greens party or even environmentalists for that matter but simply any bureaucratic process which obstructs real productive work for the sake of it.

Waving hands and screaming that you’ve got no solution to prevent a recurrence of this situation might get attention now but when the fires are out and everyone has time to think then it’s not going to get very far.

When faced with a problem most want solutions to it not political point scoring.

In this case solutions mean first getting the fires out and then doing what’s needed to avoid this happening again.

With respect to land management well in NSW it has been reported that there’s all of 10 people managing it. NSW is a pretty big place, it’s not some little island somewhere, and having individuals looking after an area larger than the state of Tasmania is stretching resources ridiculously thin.

There’s that lack of resources problem right there. It’s pretty hard to make decisions in a prompt and efficient manner when there’s stuff all people able to make them. 

Can’t blame the Greens or Labor for that one though - NSW government is Liberal and not exactly short on cash so can’t say there’s no money either.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> Note the run off average in the period I am talking about pre 1975




The same pattern albeit with less severity had been seen elsewhere too, most notably Tasmania, which rules out local causes and points to much larger ones.

There’s a lesson in that though, a big one, and it has a lot of relevance to the fires.

There’s been the odd minor panic during that time but bottom line is that at no point did then taps run dry in Perth or the lights go out in Tasmania. 

Rather, the Water Corporation (WA) and Hydro Tas have taken the pragmatic approach of doing what they need to do to adapt to changing circumstances. Plenty of things have been built or modified in doing that.

What they didn’t do is sit around in the dark telling people to not flush the toilet and blaming climate change for the situation. No, they got on with practical solutions that could actually be implemented.

That doesn’t make them climate change deniers, the opposite in fact, but it means they faced reality rather than running around screaming.

That’s the lesson which needs to be learned in all this. Do what’s needed so that we don’t have a repeat of this disaster rather than sitting around screaming that it’s all too hard.


----------



## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

Welcome back .... 



Smurf1976 said:


> If you dropped the political agenda




Sadly I dont have one.



Smurf1976 said:


> With respect to land management well in NSW it has been reported that there’s all of 10 people managing it.




Your view agenda ... much like the shooter-party nutter ... Mxjo is about burning off just like the aborignals.

Any mention of low rain .
record low rain
record high temps
record low humidity.

Is to be ignored under your agenda. 

I did read you link ... I listened with morbid fascination as the PM defended his climate policy and this despite active denial and sabotage of Madrid and 2 weeks prior to current events ... he was calling any discussion even about rain climate hysteria, much as you are.

I have methodically shared the current climate conditions, past ones and all ... disputed and ignored by you.

Its not climate change ... its CURRENT and RECENT rain and what it does to fire events. To get a catastrophic out of control event ... the fuel load on the ground actually doesn't play as bug a ole as you seem to think. Flames leap from tops of trees to the next ... a firestorm. 

I didn't even try and discuss climate change other than the CURRENT ... rain and lack of it for 36 months.

PM Morrison actually spent over 2 minutes talking about Kyoto in relation to the USA and how Donald Trump was doing such a great job with the climate.

Whilst an aside, how delusional does one need to be to spend 2 minutes hours after 800,000 in total hectares in Australia just burnt .... claiming contrary to actions which contradict it totally he supports climate issues and then 2 minutes in total on the USA and its meeting of climate totals.

Trump much like our PM ... sadly ... I dont care what party ...  is in, needs change.

2 minutes of his speech ...

defending this ? 



As for Morrison ...


Or  his closest advisor ... whom he mentioned he spoke to as he does every day ...
John Howard ... ex PM who lost his own seat ... He repeated this speech word for word ...

TODAY ..


That is being political which .. well I have not been but since after your nappy change I was accused of it .... may as well.

And yes it is helpful ... to highlight what a pathetic situation we are in with leadership like this.
Just replace him. Another Liberal ... or whatever.


----------



## SirRumpole (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Any mention of low rain .
> record low rain
> record high temps
> record low humidity.
> ...




No one is ignoring these stats, they are evident of the long term trend.

The point is that these stats have been piling up for years and politicians have ignored them because they are evidence of <shock horror> climate change which they don't want to admit exists.

But things could have been done when it did actually rain or conditions were otherwise favourable for hazard reduction. Whether these were political decisions not to do such measures or there were other reasons should be determined.


----------



## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

Oh really  ?  

On this topic and thread ...

Average rainfall ... Ignored.
Rainfall deficiency and at 50% ... ignored.
Humidity at 25% below normal ... ignored ...
Lowest 3 year rain total for vast parts of NSW and Victoria ... ignored ...
Temperature averages all time highs ... ignored ...
The 150 year lows rainfall total ... ignored
Maximum high temperature broken ... ignored
Maximum high temp with ultra low humidity and record low 12 month and 36 month rainfall .. Ignored.

Ignored in favor of the following 

Scott Morrison ..... elaborated on his support for Trump climate policy  ... as 800,000 hectares burn in a single day !! 

and his identical climate policy and views to this man, a 2 minute admire Trump during his press conference on his climate stance and beliefs.

Its word for word !!


----------



## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

Someone asked smugly how it jumped 20 km ...

Others asked why I took exception to pushing burnoffs ... and why .. well dry conditions and so on made it idiotic along with geography and steep mountains that only the insane would Hazard reduce burn..

One picture ....
One picture only ....

Where are the flames ?






South of Eden at 3.12 am 5th Jan 2020


----------



## moXJO (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Someone asked smugly how it jumped 20 km ...
> 
> Others asked why I took exception to pushing burnoffs ... and why .. well dry conditions and so on made it idiotic along with geography and steep mountains that only the insane would Hazard reduce burn..
> 
> ...




Still clueless. But keep bleating.

Out of interest are you one of the hippies out of eden?


----------



## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Still clueless. But keep bleating.
> 
> Out of interest are you one of the hippies out of eden?




No shooters party ... friends with the Milats just like you.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Oh really  ?
> 
> On this topic and thread ...
> 
> Average rainfall ... Ignored




They are not being ignored at all and that's the point you're missing.

Unless you are claiming to be God, or you seriously think that I or someone else here really is running the weather, well then we can't do anything at all about it. 

At best we could get Snowy Hydro and/or Hydro Tas to give cloud seeding a shot, both organisations have run successful programs and are well regarded internationally for their expertise whilst using very different approaches to doing it, but reality is that you need clouds to be able to seed them and neither of those two would claim that it has any chance of being more than another thing that's a partial solution. Push it hard enough and you might get 30% more rain, that's about the limit of what has been achieved, but realistically it'll be 10% and then only over suitable areas. It might be worth looking at but it's a help not a complete fix.

Beyond that, well we can't do anything about it in the short to medium term that's clear. Cut CO2 emissions to literally zero tomorrow and further warming will still occur according to IPCC models. That doesn't mean that issue doesn't need fixing but it's not going to prevent fires within our lifetime.

Which leaves us with needing to look at practical means of avoiding a repeat of this disaster if that's the aim. Practical things which can actually be done in reality and that comes down to how we manage land, how we build things and where, how we respond to fires when they start, what sort of infrastructure we have in place either permanent or temporary and so on.

It's all a bit like someone being stranded in the middle of nowhere and arguing that there should be a train service. Well maybe their should but if there's no train actually running, and no tracks for it to run on, well then they'd be wise to look at buses, cars or any other road vehicle which can get them out of there or failing that a horse, bicycle or start walking. A train isn't coming so no point focusing on that idea.


----------



## moXJO (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> No shooters party ... friends with the Milats just like you.



You would be a resident of Belanglo if that were the case.


----------



## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> You would be a resident of Belanglo if that were the case.




I knew you were related.

Pity one picture of flames at treetops makes ... all the blah blah blah about aboriginal burn-off of fuel loads at ground level ... so stupid.

Hot ... dry ... makes them .. explode sadly.

Back to your prepper shows and reading your gun magazines for you.
I can smell something ... the other one must have posted ... again.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Pity one picture of flames at treetops makes ... all the blah blah blah about aboriginal burn-off of fuel loads at ground level ... so stupid.




Perhaps consider how a crowning fire forms and spreads.

As for the weather data, well what can I say?

It's the middle of Summer and Adelaide today reached a maximum temperature of 16 degrees. Yes 16, not 46 or 36 but 16 and that was the maximum not the minimum.

Just because there's an overall drought, wet period, summer or whatever doesn't mean you can't have days or weeks when the weather's extremely different to the longer term pattern.


----------



## chiff (5 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> Glad to hear you are safe
> 
> Dad built and used one in the 50's before chainsaws come along basically a circular saw on wheels coupled to a 4 stroke engine balanced some where in between he rebuilt it about 15 years ago (dont have a pic handy)and we all had a laugh as he wondered what the department of health and safety would say.
> 
> ...



I remember the Mcculloch...looked like a box with a bar coming out of it.


----------



## qldfrog (5 January 2020)

Note the last few paragraphshttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...wingello-kangaroo-valley/11842006?pfmredir=sm
Isnt it what every inhabitant 40y ago would have done.
I am happy he saved his house, and knowing he was properly prepared, not like some of the clowns you sometimes see on their roofs one beer in hand, in tongs and shorts waving a garden hose
I think it is actually inspirational, and even better that their ABC dared writing it


----------



## basilio (5 January 2020)

There is an excellent detailed explainer on the effectiveness of hazard reduction burning in The Guardian. 
Well worth reading in full.

* Explainer: how effective is bushfire hazard reduction on Australia's fires? *
Claims of a Greens conspiracy to block hazard reduction has been rejected by bushfire experts

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...bushfire-hazard-reduction-on-australias-fires


----------



## moXJO (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> I knew you were related. Pity one picture of flames at treetops makes ... all the blah blah blah about aboriginal burn-off of fuel loads at ground level ... so stupid. Hot ... dry ... makes them .. explode sadly. .



 I actually said that in extreme weather conditions that's what happens. In all your hysterics you probably missed it. I also said what hazard reductions were for. Perhaps you can ask fireman Sam or whoever you said you knew. 

*Mr Phil Cheney of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), who is generally regarded as one of Australia’s foremost experts on bushfire management, told the Committee that: there has been a shift from fire management by land management agencies to emergency response agencies  The whole business of managing fires has shifted towards a more suppression oriented approach by the amalgamation of emergency services operations rather than putting the primary response back on the land manager and having the emergency service operations coordinate that response when it is needed. we see the community divided over fire management and the divide (especially between urban and rural communities) deepening. Familiar position-taking is occurring. On one side of the divide are some influential environmentalists and academics, supported by inner-city residents not threatened by bushfires, and not responsible for bushfire management. These people in general advocate a hands-off approach to land management, where ‘natural’ events like bushfires are allowed to run free. On the other side are rural people, fire fighters, foresters and land managers who are responsible for values threatened by bushfires. The latter tend to advocate an interventionist approach, where steps are taken to minimise risks before fires start, as well as having in place a wellequipped rapid-response fire fighting force. This divide is becoming institutionalised, and reflected in policy positions adopted by different agencies and political organisations. To add to the problem, responsibility for fire management is increasingly being taken out of the hands of land managers (who are trained to minimise threats and hazards) and placed in the hands of emergency services (people trained to respond to a disaster after it occurs). *

2003 report into the bushfires won't seem to copy so I'll put it up in parts.

Here's the report for those interested. Same thing everyone was talking about: Land management was prominent.

http___www.aphref.aph.gov.au_house_committee_bushfires_inquiry_report_fullreport.pdf


----------



## moXJO (5 January 2020)

basilio said:


> There is an excellent detailed explainer on the effectiveness of hazard reduction burning in The Guardian.
> Well worth reading in full.
> 
> * Explainer: how effective is bushfire hazard reduction on Australia's fires? *
> ...



Do we have policies or just guardian articles?
The rumors are sprouting from somewhere.


----------



## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Perhaps consider how a crowning fire forms and spreads.




This from the person who suggested controlled burns during non existent floods ?
Or hazard reduction burns during the same flash flooding ?

Two types of fires.
All have basically similar basic properties but ... totally dissimilar.
Climate conditions .... Fuel load .... topography

Normal fire ... all three relevant.

Not so normal,
Extreme or catastrophic  conditions. Ones I did raise, but well ... ignored here.

Fuel load at ground level and fire breaks ... pretty irrelevant. Look at the picture and CSRIO study along with RFS and others.
Leaps from tree top to tree top. Both Vic fire chief and NSW one have time and time again discussed this.

Extreme and catastrophic conditions are ..  extreme heat ... low humidity and wind even worse.

So being pop pooed for pointing out 36 month total rainfall lows ... 150 year lows.
then all time 150 year temperature highs ..
then 150 year low humidity ...

all discarded .. for some gibberish about averages and if only there had been controlled burns or Greenies.

Silly thing is ... in a fire storm ... in extreme or catastrophic conditions ultra low humidity, ultra dry .. and high heat with WIND ... it really is totally irrelevant fuel loads on the ground.

Fires leap 5 km 10km ... tree top to tree top .... which is yep dry ... hence the Tathra incident of 2018 where I lived. How Eden fire actually did 40 km in a very short time and now 60 km.

 Not a debate ... past that. Fire breaks in those conditions ... sadly an aside.

This is the brave new world where denial of anything unusual going on as climactic observations hit 150 lows, ones predicted and predicted to get worse are still denied.

I cannot change what is actual conditions. Not about to debate someone such as some even denying this irrefutable evidence of 150 year high temps and low humidity and low rainfall.

In their universe floods appear to be relevant even when 2,581 km away of a flash flood 450 kms away from current fires was a missed opportunity to do a hazard reduction burn.

Fires do actually burn better in hot dry conditions and to have it suggested that a controlled burn was an option after a flash flood is someone who has never ... tried to light a campfire in the rain.

There is to be blunt ... NO solution to extreme of catastrophic climate changes. NONE. None in relation to fighting fires.

If you wish as many do that climate issues are not real, of this was a one off event, so be it. Funny the same event where Tundra covering permafrost and frozen bones for 35,000 years on the top layers and 1 million year old vegetation have caught alight and raged the last 2 years across the Arctic and Canadian and Siberian regions of it.

IPCC models actually do not contain any change for the Permafrost melting because the USA and Canada with Saudi Arabia had it removed along with the help of our Government. A release of frozen and captured CO2 that contains more CO2 than we humans have emitted ... in 200 years .. was not expected after fudging by USA lobby in the IPCC to happen till post 2100.

Its sadly occurring 80 years early.

We already hit the 1.5 degree target rise ... for 2100 globally in 2018 ... let alone 2019. Response was with the USA coal Barrons wife at the UN is that this pre industrial starting point moved from 1750 to 1810 so we were and are only 1.1 C higher. The amount sadly of CO2 and CH4 methane to be released which is 40 times if not 80 times worse as the atmosphere cannot deal with the breaking down of it and the time just to break CH4 into CO2 and H2O has doubled in 15 years.

An at best estimate on the actual 2100 realistic target is even of Kyoto were to be met a rise of 2.5 degrees ignoring Artic CO2 melt and CH4 issues that USA presidents, and out own, and not just Trump ... Obama was shocking Bush Junior was funded by Enron. The best estimate from the very best IPCC guys from Cambridge and Oxford in the UK along with several others is a rise of not 1 C or 2C which the latter is diabolical which defies description, the recent Madrid conference had the panel with the most respected brains ranging from 4-6 C gains by 2100.

I know alarmist or whatever.

Howling at the moon but one does try ... even for what little worth and abuse it receives.
Australia I would agree if it went to zero emissions would not matter a lot. The cost would strangely be ZERO or close to it, it would of course mean losses for coal and others but ... who cares.

Burn baby burn as they say.
Trying to stop a petrol fire with the garden hose does not work.
Trying to stop this type of fire ... with Climactic and water content and heat and wind at extremes ..

Good luck.

It is possible with a metal piped sprinkler system when the front approaches to cover your house and anything flammable in a fine water mist and emerge when the front passes to put out any spot stuff.

Standing on the roof with your hose in the face of a firestorm ?

Good luck ... again.

Climate denial and non acceptance of even current relevant temperature and humidity levels is absurd.
Suggesting even that its possible to control burn in extreme or severe conditions as seem even in winter is doubly absurd.

Then again in these types of fires, or firestorms, the fuel load at ground level ... GROUND level is not relevant.

I thank you for your input ... but in the study ... it conceded* Fuel load is totally irrelevant in extreme and catastrophic conditions. 

FFDI; when you exceed an FFDI of about 50, you switch from fuel-dominated to a weather-dominated fire."At this point, while fuel has a small effect, it is overwhelmed by the weather.

What was the fire rating ? Up in the 90 region ....  *


----------



## basilio (5 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Do we have policies or just guardian articles?
> The rumors are sprouting from somewhere.




WTF? How about reading and responding to the analysis.  
Or is your only response is to say "It came from The Guardian "


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## wayneL (5 January 2020)

basilio said:


> "It came from The Guardian "



= Red flag... Propaganda... Disregard.


----------



## basilio (5 January 2020)

wayneL said:


> = Red flag... Propaganda... Disregard.



* Waynes Law - When in doubt - Deny .  *

* Explainer: how effective is bushfire hazard reduction on Australia's fires? *
Claims of a Greens conspiracy to block hazard reduction has been rejected by bushfire experts

Graham Readfearn

 @readfearn 
Sun 5 Jan 2020 15.18 AEDT   Last modified on Sun 5 Jan 2020 16.14 AEDT

Shares
377




The National Parks and Wildlife Service in NSW says bushfire hazard reduction occurred across more than 139,000 hectares in 2018 and 2019. Photograph: Peter Parks/AFP via Getty Images
Australia’s bushfire crisis started much earlier than normal in August 2019, with thousands of fires in Queensland and New South Wales.

Despite the evidence a claim persists that a major contributing factor of Australia’s devastating fire season – and the deaths, loss of homes and environmental devastation they have caused – is not climate change but a conspiracy by environmentalists to “lock up” national parks and prevent hazard reduction activities such as prescribed burning and clearing of the forest floor.

On Saturday the prime minister, Scott Morrison, said after visiting fire grounds: “The most constant issue that has been raised with me has been the issue of managing fuel loads in national parks.”

He claimed that people “who say they are seeking those actions on climate change” could also be the same people who “don’t share the same urgency of dealing with hazard reduction”.

*Prof David Bowman, the director of the fire centre research hub at the University of Tasmania, said: “It’s ridiculous. To frame this as an issue of hazard reduction in national parks is just lazy political rhetoric.”*

On Sunday Morrison said he wanted to know “what the contribution of issues” around hazard reduction were, but repeated that it had been an issue raised often with him.

He also said “without the planning, without the preparations” of state agencies, “I fear what has really been a terrible tragedy would have been far worse.”

*Are greenies stopping hazard reduction?*
Hazard reduction is the management of fuel and can be carried out through prescribed burning, also known as controlled burning, and removing trees and vegetation, both dead and alive.

Hazard reduction is carried out by fire authorities, national park staff and individual property owners who can apply for permits to clear areas around their buildings. Coordination of activities happens through local bushfire management committees. There are 120 committees in NSW.

*The claim of a conspiracy by environmentalists to block hazard reduction activities has been roundly rejected by bushfire experts, and experts say it is betrayed by hard data on actual hazard reduction activities in national parks.*

Prof Ross Bradstock, the director of the centre for environmental risk management of bushfires at the University of Wollongong, has previously told Guardian Australia: “These are very tired and very old conspiracy theories that get a run after most major fires. They’ve been extensively dealt with in many inquiries.”

*Former fire chiefs who have been calling strongly for action on climate change, and who have been trying to meet Morrison for months, have also been calling for increased funding for hazard reduction.*

*The Australian Greens say they want “an effective and sustainable strategy for fuel-reduction management that will protect biodiversity and moderate the effects of wildfire for the protection of people and assets, developed in consultation with experts, custodians and land managers”.


A federal government factsheet on bushfire management outlines how state agencies and people can carry out a range of hazard reduction activities that have been exempted from national environmental law, even if they “have the potential to have a significant impact on nationally protected matters”.*

*How much hazard reduction has happened?*
In the last full fire season of 2018 and 2019, the National Parks and Wildlife Service in NSW told Guardian Australia it carried out hazard reduction activities across more than 139,000 hectares, slightly above its target.

*There are two major restricting factors for carrying out prescribed burning. One is the availability of funds and personnel, and the second is the availability of weather windows.*

The 2018-19 annual report of the NSW Rural Fire Service says: “The ability of the NSW RFS and partner agencies to complete hazard reduction activities is highly weather dependent, with limited windows of opportunity. Prolonged drought conditions in 2018-19 adversely affected the ability of agencies to complete hazard reduction works.”

The RFS said 113,130 properties had been subject to hazard reduction activities, which was 76% of its target. The 199,248ha covered was 106% of its target.

*Is climate change affecting hazard reduction?

A former NSW fire and rescue commissioner, Greg Mullins, has written that the hotter and drier conditions, and the higher fire danger ratings, were preventing agencies from carrying out prescribed burning.*

But as well as climate change narrowing the window to carry out prescribed burning, Mullins said some fires have become so intense they have burned through areas that had been subject to hazard reduction.

*Mullins has been fighting fires in NSW for months. Speaking to the ABC on Friday, he said he witnessed a fire in Grafton in an area that had burned only two weeks previously, but “the burnt leaves were burning again”.


He said: “There has been lots of hazard reductions done over the years – more by national parks than previous years – but the fires have burned through those hazard reduction areas.”*

Mullins dismissed suggestions that the bushfires were down to “greenies” preventing hazard reduction activities.“This is the blame game. We’ll blame arsonists, we’ll blame greenies,” he said.

“When will the penny drop with this government?”

The National Parks Association of NSW’s president, Anne Dickson, has also responded to the attacks on environmentalists.





 
 Facebook    Twitter   
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Prof David Bowman says hazard reduction burning doesn’t stop bushfires, but the aim is ‘to try and change its behaviour’. Photograph: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images
In November 2019, she said: “The increasing intensity and frequency of fire is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity and natural landscapes. It may be politically expedient to pretend that conservationists exercise some mythical power over fire legislation and bushfire management committees, but it is not so.

“Such wild and simplistic claims avoid the very real and complex challenges of protecting our communities and the healthy environments that support our quality of life.”

Bowman said that separate to the “lazy political rhetoric” of blaming environmentalists, there should be an examination of the benefits and limitations of hazard reduction.

But he said there was also a reality to consider: “A lot of people are thinking that hazard reduction burning stops fire. It doesn’t, but what it does do is to try and change its behaviour.

“But let’s say you embarked on the biggest fire reduction program the world has ever seen. What’s the budget for that? Who will pay for it. Of course there is a place for hazard reduction but if you have massive increases, where does the money come from? The reality is that you can’t treat everything.”

*What is climate change doing to bushfire weather?*
The 2019-20 bushfire crisis coincided with Australia’s hottest year on record. On a state level, NSW easily experienced its hottest year, with temperatures 1.95C above the long-term average, beating the previous record year, 2018, by 0.27C.

*  What are the links between climate change and bushfires? – explainer  *
Read more
Climate experts have said not all of that heat came from climate change, as two climate systems were also working to push up temperatures and fire danger.

Fire authorities are guided on a daily basis on the risk of fires through the Forest Fire Danger Index, a combined measure of temperature, humidity, wind speed and the availability of dry fuel. Spring 2019 had been the worst year on a record going back to 1950 for bushfire risk.

A 2017 study of 67 years of FFDI data found a “clear trend toward more dangerous conditions during spring and summer in southern Australia, including increased frequency and magnitude of extremes, as well as indicating an earlier start to the fire season”.

A study of Queensland’s historic 2018 bushfire season found the extreme temperatures that coincided with the fires were four time more likely because of human-caused climate.

On Sunday Morrison claimed the government had “always made this connection” between climate change and impacts on Australia’s weather.

Advice shared with authorities around the country earlier this year from the National Environmental Science Program said: “These trends are very likely to increase into the future, with climate models showing more dangerous weather conditions for bushfires throughout Australia due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions.”

There are also fears that large pulses of carbon dioxide emissions from Australia’s bushfires may not be reabsorbed through regrowth of forests as they have in the past.

The fire season has seen several reports of bushfire-generated thunderstorms. Guardian Australia has reported that 2019 would likely be a “stand-out” year for storms known as “pyroCBs” that generate their own lightning and influence the atmosphere at heights of up to 15km.

A study in 2019 published in the journal Scientific Reports found that adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere would create more dangerous conditions favourable to pyroCB events in the future, particularly for the southern parts of Australia.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...bushfire-hazard-reduction-on-australias-fires


----------



## moXJO (5 January 2020)

basilio said:


> WTF? How about reading and responding to the analysis.
> Or is your only response is to say "It came from The Guardian "





Where are the rumors originating from. I know the was a QLD state policy that has caused some issue. What are the actually policies are causing the problem or which department. I know plenty of stories, but there must be a specific policy causing angst.

I skimmed the article  before. Saw the title and didn't bother again.


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## wayneL (5 January 2020)

basilio said:


> * Waynes Law - When in doubt - Deny .  *
> 
> * Explainer: how effective is bushfire hazard reduction on Australia's fires? *
> Claims of a Greens conspiracy to block hazard reduction has been rejected by bushfire experts
> ...




What have I denied Komrade basilov?


----------



## moXJO (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> I thank you for your input ... but in the study ... it conceded* Fuel load is totally irrelevant in extreme and catastrophic conditions.
> 
> FFDI; when you exceed an FFDI of about 50, you switch from fuel-dominated to a weather-dominated fire."At this point, while fuel has a small effect, it is overwhelmed by the weather.
> 
> What was the fire rating ? Up in the 90 region ....  *



And once again if an area has been burned before it is easy to control when conditions improve. It's not to stop it at extremes, you can't. All the things you said are true. It basically sucks up everything when the conditions are at their worst. But it is a lot more manageable if there's been a previous burn and conditions improve. If it hasn't then it's still a bonfire.

You can't realistically hazard burn enough forest to make a difference and it's costly and a pain round built up areas. But enough wasn't done. If you read the 2003 report I'm betting the libs failed in their planning. Fed state and local. There will be carbon copy problems repeated from last time.

The only thing we probably do agree on is that the climate is stuffed.


----------



## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Where are the rumors originating from




the paper from 2003 and parliamentary inquiry at the time ... 

If you had read or known your source and his conclusions it may have helped. 

It is however 2020 and 25 odd studies and some very serious post fire inquiries have occurred along with rapidly changing climactic conditions on the unseen for 150   year scale. 

To seriously have been called an idiot by you is amusing.


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## moXJO (5 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> the paper from 2003 and parliamentary inquiry at the time ...
> 
> If you had read or known your source and his conclusions it may have helped.
> 
> ...



Oh please you're still trying to get your head around what hazard burns are for.

I'm talking recent policies. I don't have time to dig all day.


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## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> You can't realistically hazard burn enough forest to make a difference and it's costly and a pain round built up areas.




I would agree ... with a fire rating of 80 even 90 and close to the 100 ...  its a different fire.



moXJO said:


> But enough wasn't done.




Irrelevant in a fire with even a mid rating. Clearly and openly known even on 2003.




moXJO said:


> If you read the 2003 report



Since I read it prior to these recent events and can and DID raise the relevant issues ...

Only to be ignored, on Weather or climactic conditions such as temperature ... Humidity ... rainfall ... Its quite clear YOU did not read even this somewhat dated study.

Whilst some of his conclusions are of course valid ... in the report .. presented to the inquiry before parliament ... even on 2003 there were quite serious issues and questions about the controlled burning issue and if it was in many cases actually counterproductive. The tree tops .... after a mid range heat hazard reduction burn in extreme conditions were dead and whilst maybe the ground level fuel load was reduced ... the tree tops were atomic bombs of dry leaves in a very hot dry day with low humidity as was discussed at lenght back in 2003.

Let alone 2019 ... all time 150 year low temps ... low rainfall and humidity and moisture contents married with higher and extreme wind we saw late last night 4/1/2020 .... and a fire .. turned into a fire storm ... something sadly we have seen a bit of this year a firestorm where the fire itself creates its own weather conditions as heat and pressure at times create wind up to 250 km an hour.

This with respect and gratitude for the firies who had their 10 ton ton flipped ... and some lost their lives, I would agree with the futility of some current fire policies, Not suggesting no more control burns .... but if climate and temps are not right, they at times do more harm than good. No fuel on the forest floor but the tinder dry leaves provide in the worst conditions of heat and dry and wind the perfect thing seen in the picture I provided.

I have no answer ...
I have no agenda ... other than a wish and belief climate issues are real irrespective of 2019/20 fires.


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## kahuna1 (5 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Oh please you're still trying to get your head around what hazard burns are for.




Strange ... that I raised all of this prior to you sharing you limited ... intellect again along with capacity for abuse.

To be called an idiot when raising the 150 year low rainfall ... humidity and high temperatures springs to mind. 

If you read the 2003 paper ... or a few more modern ones or the Tathra 2018  fire investigation which most locals like me followed .. well .. you may learn.

I live in hope


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## sptrawler (5 January 2020)

Shocking fires you people over East are having, hope it all settles down and rain comes soon.


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## sptrawler (5 January 2020)

It's a shame headlines don't reflect reality. The headline said What would Tony Abbott have done during this bushfire crisis?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...ing-the-bushfires-crisis-20200103-p53oj5.html
Well as history shows, Tony Abbott would have done what he has always done and fought the fire, also as history shows he would have been ridiculed for doing so as he was at the time.
Guess there isn't any way you do the right thing in Australia.


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## Smurf1976 (5 January 2020)

Here's what those who actually know something have to say and it seems rather familiar:

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...urns-needed-experts-warn-20200103-p53om0.html


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## sptrawler (5 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Here's what those who actually know something have to say and it seems rather familiar:
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...urns-needed-experts-warn-20200103-p53om0.html



Well you will cop some crap for posting that!! 
It doesn't fit the rhetoric, that Scomo caused it, or if he was here it wouldn't have been as bad, or why didn't he suit up like Tony used to.


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## IFocus (5 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well you will cop some crap for posting that!!
> *It doesn't fit the rhetoric, that Scomo caused it*, or if he was here it wouldn't have been as bad, or why didn't he suit up like Tony used to.




No one has said that but plenty have pointed out his self promotion and his complete lack of leadership.

Now he throwing ever thing at the issue, strangely finding time to make Liberal party ads but failing to tell the states whats going on.


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## IFocus (6 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Rather, the Water Corporation (WA) and Hydro Tas have taken the pragmatic approach of doing what they need to do to adapt to changing circumstances. Plenty of things have been built or modified in doing that.




I dont even know which party started it but luckily there was no politics around water and they started to build desal plants.

Some time ago the manager for the Water Corp (woman) said that no one working with water in WA had any doubt about climate change.

Fortunately the WA Liberals listened and ignored the Fed Liberals.

Strangely Abbott just recently told Israel radio that climate change was a cult.

Unlike the train line to Mandurah which the Liberals (Court) went all out to stop is now the busiest.

Having said that the last Liberal Premier (Barnett) I thought was pretty good.


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## sptrawler (6 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> No one has said that but plenty have pointed out his self promotion and his complete lack of leadership.
> 
> Now he throwing ever thing at the issue, strangely finding time to make Liberal party ads but failing to tell the states whats going on.



Well I guess the media has to find something to make a song and dance about, they usually do.
It is a shame they don't spend as much time, trying to organise some media based aid programmes, rather than just trying to find as many headlines as possible in the shortest possible time.
IMO the Australian media is absolutely Fing useless and a complete waste of time.
Just my opinion


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## Smurf1976 (6 January 2020)

The most factual, to the point and non-political summary of the situation I've seen thus far:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50951043

Needless to say it's from an overseas source not a local one hence the lack of politics.


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## moXJO (6 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Strange ... that I raised all of this prior to you sharing you limited ... intellect again along with capacity for abuse.
> 
> To be called an idiot when raising the 150 year low rainfall ... humidity and high temperatures springs to mind.
> 
> ...




I called you an idiot for conflating.

Pull up any report on prior bushfires from the last 20 years and it will likely say the same thing. Not enough land management.

The problem is that it's costly. But I know that even basic things like fire trails were not maintained. Once it rains it will all be forgotten again till the next big fire.


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## sptrawler (6 January 2020)

That is a comprehensive report @Smurf, shame the Australian press don't run it, it would help a lot of people see the magnitude and causes.


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## kahuna1 (6 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> I called you an idiot for conflating.




I will come back ... with a decent response, it may take a while. 

I agree with points above, totally disagree and ... CONFLATE in your and the other gents view on some things.


----------



## chiff (6 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> I called you an idiot for conflating.
> 
> Pull up any report on prior bushfires from the last 20 years and it will likely say the same thing. Not enough land management.
> 
> The problem is that it's costly. But I know that even basic things like fire trails were not maintained. Once it rains it will all be forgotten again till the next big fire.



I read this morning from a member of the RFS that they hazard burnt 139 thousand hectares this year.More hazard reduction is constrained by finance,personnel and climate windows.I hope they make incentives for people to move from their bush yondaras.


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## basilio (6 January 2020)

Excellent analysis from the BBC on the scope of the current fires.
The explainer on  bushfire hazard reduction from Greame Readorn also analyses the challenges of effectively managing fuel loads in a  rapidly warming climate.


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## moXJO (6 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> I will come back ... with a decent response, it may take a while.
> 
> I agree with points above, totally disagree and ... CONFLATE in your and the other gents view on some things.



Your argument was valid. It's hotter and more dry for longer. Ground cover is dry.
We have a more limited window to take precautionary action to lessen the effect. 


If we can't even take basic measures for something as devastating, frequent and visable as a bushfire. Then I don't hold a lot of hope in adapting  to a changing climate.
We already forgot every fire preceding this one.


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## tinhat (6 January 2020)

Suggestions that have been posted on these fora in recent days that "Greenies" are to blame for insufficient hazard reduction burning are complete nonsense. The Murdoch press are flaming this fake news. It is as fake as claiming that Turnbull was going to "privatise medicare" or Shorten was going to introduce a "death tax".

This fake news claim is completely refuted by facts. I know from my conservation work that there is consensus among ecologists that many coastal ecological communities benefit from period burning at appropriate time intervals which iss recommended in the recovery plans of several endangered ecological communities as listed under NSW and Commonwealth legislation.

I am aware of the work the Nature Conservation Council of NSW have funded in researching and promoting fire stick land management, especially in northern NSW having chatted with one of the ecologists working on the program at the NCC annual conference three years ago.

I am also aware that the National Parks and Wildlife Service (NPWS) want to do more burning in my area, not just hazard reduction burning but also ecological burns but are hampered by lack of resources. Conservation groups have been warning of the massive loss of experienced fire management personnel that resulted from the government's forced round of redundancies from the NPWS only a few years ago. In fact, management of our national parks, including invasive species management, etc, is suffering because park rangers, including area managers in NSW are flat out half of the year on secondment fighting fires up and down the coast.

I am also aware that in NSW the RFS office responsible for assessing certain developments on bushfire prone land are continuing to allow inappropriate development on bushfire prone land under duress from the NSW state government. I am aware of one development in my local area that both the local council and the local RFS have been highly critical, scathing even, of the RFS development approval.

Greenie bashing as a diversion from the ideological hatred that many conservatives have towards, you know, looking after the environment that sustains life, instead of short-term and short-sighted exploitation, I hope to hell, ain't going to wash after this angry summer.

The false dichotomy of characterising sustainable environmental stewardship and nature conservation as a leftist/socialist is absurd and perverted.

As an active conservationist, it is my direct personal experience in my local area that in general conservationists, ecologists, the NPWS, the local RFS management and volunteer firies are in harmony over hazard reduction burning. The one thing we all have in common is a desire to see more resources allocated so that burns can be conducted at appropriate scales in appropriate conditions at appropriate intervals. Right now, because of a lack of resources, not enough cold burns are being done at ecologically appropriate scale and not frequently enough - not because of this mythical power that "greenies" apparently have to stop burns, but because of lack of government allocated resources.


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## sptrawler (6 January 2020)

One thing that will come of the fires will be a very large stimulus injection, it is sad that lives and property has been lost, but at least we are well positioned to inject stimulus into the local economies they will no doubt need it.
Hopefully it is well directed and the replacement infrastructure is not only better, but appropriate for the changing environment.


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## basilio (6 January 2020)

Strong leadership by Daniel Andrews on establishing a bushfire fund for Victorians affected by the disaster.

Couple of points
1) He asked Pat McNamara from the Nationals to chair the fund. He is from the NE region and chaired a similar fund previously

2) He stressed, very nicely, the need for money and not more food, clothes, toys whatever.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/daniel-andrews-victorian-bushfires-update/11842454


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## sptrawler (6 January 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-06/scott-morrison-bushfire-recovery-bill/11844096

Sounds as though plenty of money is going to be thrown at it, which is good, at least it is spending that helps Australians. IMO
Stimulus packages that are ill directed IMO, are worse than no stimulus package at all.
Just my opinion.


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## kahuna1 (6 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> We already forgot every fire preceding this one.




Sadly ...with regret .... what fires !! fake news .... there never has been a fire.

Not much will change, a mix of changes need to occur. Some ... I strongly believe cannot be altered and must be accepted as a new reality. We cannot control a firestorm or fire tornado in a type 2 fire. We could over time stop the thing that has created this now very common post 2000 fire, but for the next 50 years likely forever, they will be a fact of life. 

Cant run away from even a normal fire at 10km an hour ... type 2 ... 50 km jumps and wind at the front 250 km an hour flipping 10 ton fire trucks like matchsticks ...

We can mitigate and accept reality ... the new reality but even that, being realistic seem totally impossible even for a tiny subset around fires on the bigger climate issues. Any and all discussion of this topic is not allowed or accepted.Yep I conflate ... then again record dry, humidity and temps ignoring why they occurred.  

I try an remain positive but even a 2c degree 2100 rise is virtually impossible  to hope for. At Madrid as I said the world expert scientists, leaders in their fields came in mainly in the 4-6 degree rise and some, even higher.

Whilst annoying ... the UN IPPC guy, the worlds leading expert in Australia did an interview, Not so much about types or nature of fire but, well ... his comments were very restrained given Australias action at Madrid and woeful track record.

I do understand virtually no scientific type believe climate change is not real, not man made and a dire threat. Amazingly 33% of Americans dont believe in it. Much similar numbers here and more than normal amounts on sites such as this.

Here is the clip ..
There is some very good media coverage of what fires are and back-burning and management. Some not so good and some not even close to science. I have nothing to add to some very learned expert on all the topics. 



Michael Mann is the leader of 50,000 or so climate and associated experts who consult to the UN.
This includes for the 2018 report 271 Nobel prize winners in various fields and that's about 50 or so from Astronomers to Biologists to Volcanologists and on and on.

The 2018 report was well ... dire in its numbers.
Some massive things were removed making the best case scenario by 2100 absurd. Main one is Arctic permafrost the Australia and Saudi Arabia and Canada and USA leading had removed from any estimates. .A release of 1.6 trillion tons of CO2 as the permafrost melts is occurring 70 years early and in fact the Tundra and Moss that covers it was on fire in Siberia and Canada in 2018 and 2019, which just below the surface frozen for a million years is the trapped for now CO2 plant and vegetable matter along with of course things like frozen perfectly preserved for 60,000 year mammoths.

Sadly, I agree with all you said other than my differences on fire management and post 200 with 10 out of 10 record high temps and low rainfall global years, fires without moisture invalidate most studies pre 2000 or even 2003. They just burn hotter and quicker and whilst they have occurred occasionally in various places, that in a single day Victoria added 200,000 hectares and NSW what appear close to 600,000 hectares with the Eden border fire at 140,000 and Mount Kosciuszko region two fires at well over 300,000 and the others adding 50k here and 75 k there, as you say all will be forgotten.

Fake news ... Donald Trump told me so !!


----------



## wayneL (6 January 2020)




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## sptrawler (6 January 2020)

Yes I think there would have been a lot of monitoring going on, it will be interesting to see if it was organised, or random.
There was definitely too many fronts and new fires, for natural causes to have started them IMO
If they were deliberate, I certainly hope they find those behind the fires.


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## Humid (6 January 2020)

wayneL said:


>





Fingers crossed mate


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## sptrawler (6 January 2020)

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news...t/news-story/4d0037f48df17bd1ba00ba9edb826fc8.
From the article:
A Reynella East man, 31, was arrested on Sunday morning, after police investigated two recent bushfires at Aldinga.

The fires were believed to have been started in scrubland at Aldinga Beach Rd and the Esplanade, on December 28 – a severe bushfire risk day.
Police charged the man with two counts of cause bushfire, acts to endanger life and fail to truly answer questions.

Also another man:
The 79-year-old is accused of lighting four bushfires from December 30, 2019 to January 4, 2020.
■ Monday 30 December 2019 adjacent to Catherine Gibson Way.
■ Thursday 2 January adjacent to Catherine Gibson Way
■ Saturday 4 January adjacent to First Street
■ Saturday 4 January adjacent on Eleventh Street


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## sptrawler (6 January 2020)

This sounds like a fair summation, by Victoria's former Fire Chief Craig Lapsley:
Victoria’s former fire chief Craig Lapsley said fire intensity had increased in the past two decades amid a changing climate and more extreme weather conditions and this current crisis was a "watershed" moment.
Mr Lapsley, who led the recovery after the 2009 Black Saturday fire, said the way state governments had managed the bush had changed in the past 70 years because of society’s conservation and environmental values.

“There’s obviously been a change in the logging industry. The bush is not being logged to the same extent it was," Mr Lapsley said. "There’s been a change in the amount of fuel ... more fuel levels and a changing climate and changing weather on top of that. These are things our values have demanded, but it has created the situation we are in now. We need to talk about how we manage."

In 2010, the Black Saturday bushfires royal commission recommended Victoria undertake at least 385,000 hectares of planned burning a year. Last year there were 74,000 hectares burned off. This year there were 130,000.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...r-hazard-reduction-burns-20200105-p53ozo.html


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## moXJO (6 January 2020)

> During the summer between 1974 and 1975, Australia experienced its worst bushfire season in 30 years. Approximately 15 per cent of Australia's physical land mass sustained extensive fire damage. This equates to roughly around 117 million ha.
> New South Wales was badly affected with widespread damage to infrastructure, including communications, roads, railways and property fencing. There was also significant damage to the agriculture and horticulture industries, as famers lost crops and livestock to the fires. The areas affected included Cobar Shire, Balranald, Glendale and regions around the Lower Hunter. Three people lost their lives in New South Wales. The overall damage cost was estimated at approximately $5 million.





https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-new-south-wales-1974/

Talking about short memories, I don't remember hearing about this one.


----------



## moXJO (6 January 2020)

Strike Force Tronto, made up of detectives from the Financial Crimes Squad's Arson Unit, have been working closely with local police forces to catch arsonists.
*Today the NSW Police confirmed 24 people had been charged over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires.*

Shocking figures released by Strike Force Tronto today also showed legal action had been taken against 47 people for allegedly discarding a lighted cigarette or match on land.
A further 53 people faced legal action for allegedly failing to comply with a total fire ban.
Police urge people to provide footage and images from phones, dashcam or other devices that show any of fires in their infancy, even if only from a distance.


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> Suggestions that have been posted on these fora in recent days that "Greenies" are to blame for insufficient hazard reduction burning are complete nonsense.




As per my comment, there's a problem with resourcing etc as you note. Many have realised that something's wrong but they've wrongly assumed what the problem is - blaming "greenies" when in fact it's due to lack of resourcing, in some cases excessive bureaucracy and so on but it's not Greens (as in the party) or environmentalists standing in the way primarily.

It's akin to the workers downing tools and some bystander blaming "unions" whilst being completely unaware that it was the management that ordered the stop work. The assumed likely cause cops the blame even though they had absolutely no involvement. Etc.

Meanwhile on a more serious note I see that police have charged 24, yes 24, people with arson offences in NSW relating to the fires. Also someone has been charged with arson in relation to the East Gippsland fires in Victoria and in separate incidents people have been charged with arson in SA and Tasmania.

I don't really know what to think there but the notion that there may have been some sort of co-ordinated activity going on has occurred to me. That's a bit "tin foil hat" I'll admit but if 24 have been charged well then it's a fair assumption that the number of actual arsonists was far higher given that the majority wouldn't be caught in practice. Either a lot of individuals all had the same idea or some group is trying to start a mega fire.

Conspiracy?

I don't really know what to think but if there's 24 been charged just in NSW, and people charged in several other states, well then the idea that some redneck group is involved doesn't seem impossible. No proof, it's just a theory, but it would seem at least possible there's a criminal element involved beyond individuals acting independently.


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## moXJO (6 January 2020)

Always thought these were bad news round the house. Didn't know we exported th



> The fires are finding fuel in Australia's eucalyptus forests, which many experts blame for feeding wildfires that have blazed through the hills of California and other places where eucalyptus trees — native to Australia but now found throughout the world — have spread as an invasive species.




https://www.livescience.com/amp/40583-australia-wildfires-eucalyptus-trees-bushfires.html


----------



## sptrawler (6 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Strike Force Tronto, made up of detectives from the Financial Crimes Squad's Arson Unit, have been working closely with local police forces to catch arsonists.
> *Today the NSW Police confirmed 24 people had been charged over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires.*
> 
> Shocking figures released by Strike Force Tronto today also showed legal action had been taken against 47 people for allegedly discarding a lighted cigarette or match on land.
> ...




One would expect there will be a lot of data matching going on ATM, it could get really serious if any underlying collusion was going on, the charges could be very serious.IMO


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## sptrawler (6 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Always thought these were bad news round the house. Didn't know we exported th
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.livescience.com/amp/40583-australia-wildfires-eucalyptus-trees-bushfires.html



The Americans loved them, now they are classed as a weed and are being taken out. How many times has that story been heard around the World, with regard introduced species?


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## moXJO (6 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I don't really know what to think there but the notion that there may have been some sort of co-ordinated activity going on has occurred to me. That's a bit "tin foil hat" I'll admit but if 24 have been charged well then it's a fair assumption that the number of actual arsonists was far higher given that the majority wouldn't be caught in practice. Either a lot of individuals all had the same idea or some group is trying to start a mega fire.
> 
> Conspiracy?
> 
> I don't really know what to think but if there's 24 been charged just in NSW, and people charged in several other states, well then the idea that some redneck group is involved doesn't seem impossible. No proof, it's just a theory, but it would seem at least possible there's a criminal element involved beyond individuals acting independently.



You would be surprised how many people do this. Fire fighters have been caught lighting fires in the hope of looking like hero's when fighting them. Crazy stuff.
Others just do dumb crap.


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## IFocus (6 January 2020)

David Shoebridge (Greens NSW) Tweeted this a few hours ago.

"Just to be clear for the RWNJs who run these lies. I’ve been a Greens MP for almost 10 years and never once voted for, or called for, reducing hazard reduction burns. I’ve worked with almost 200 Greens councillors in that time and none of them have either".

https://twitter.com/ShoebridgeMLC


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## qldfrog (6 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> Suggestions that have been posted on these fora in recent days that "Greenies" are to blame for insufficient hazard reduction burning are complete nonsense. The Murdoch press are flaming this fake news. It is as fake as claiming that Turnbull was going to "privatise medicare" or Shorten was going to introduce a "death tax".
> 
> This fake news claim is completely refuted by facts. I know from my conservation work that there is consensus among ecologists that many coastal ecological communities benefit from period burning at appropriate time intervals which iss recommended in the recovery plans of several endangered ecological communities as listed under NSW and Commonwealth legislation.
> 
> ...



@tinhat, in qld at least:
 agree on lack of resource, any serious ecosystem expert would indeed favor proper fire management etc
But the fact remains that here i can not legally cut a tree for a fire break: Moreton Bay council at least unless i only cut non native species
So no, SHY is not passing a law making me burn to death, but tree clearing regulations, vegetation management laws and centrally managed permitting act the same, and they are all under the environmental protection label.
Full land clearing is happily going on to install new estates but landowners can not manage their blocks.i do not need experts to tell me what is happening on my own block
There is only so much i can do clearing lantana by hand in the hills
Otherwise yes and yes for resources lacking.manpower in rangers and a more profound issue with RFS volonteering.


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## kahuna1 (7 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Talking about short memories, I don't remember hearing about this one.




Well ... remote WA and NT ... and QLD which 45 years ago and scrub with few people ...  burnt. After I might add massive flooding ... far far west NSW as well.

_*In the La Niña year of 1974, an estimated 900 billion tons of rain fell throughout the state of Queensland*_
http://www.environmentandsociety.org/arcadia/australia-day-floods-january-1974

According to the Bureau of Meteorology special *climate* statement, the total *rainfall* for last year was 705mm, making it the second wettest year on *record*, behind *1974* with 760mm THE RECORD ...

*1974* with 760mm THE RECORD ...


If you look ... the source of this fable .. or story ... via Murdoch Press .. extolling virtues of controlled burning and it is linked to none other than the climate denial site of Australia funded by Gina Rhinehart and non other than discredited unqualified  ... paid pet Jenifer Marohasy

She is at best ... a hack.

The Murdoch press source ... from her own site !! PLEASE DONT LAUGH ... it is true ... link provided.

*Dr Christine Finlay ... her CV ... on her site ... *

*I have been on the dole on and off* ever since I stumbled on the vast amount of evidence I present in my PhD - _Smokescreen: Black/White/Male/Female Bravery and SE Australian Bushfires_. Firestorms are preventable and there is a huge amount of evidence that semi-naked Aborigines managed and still manage bushfires superbly without boots, trucks or even a box of matches. The massacre can be ended for peanuts.

*I can't get a job no matter no hard I try. Twenty years of writing job applications * proved no one will employ a PhD to work as a secretary, bus driver, cleaner, cook etc etc

*I struggle to keep my teeth in my head because dentistry is so expensive*

https://sites.google.com/site/stopbushfires/about-dr-christine-finlay

Are they joking ? Source ? Maybe they got her some teeth ? Credible  or not ? Feeling better about the burn-offs and aboriginal myth ? Knowing the source. I am !!

I note Bloomberg the billionaire 6 th richest person on the planet got busted using female inmates from a jail to do his calls, but this is sadly astounding. .

Back to Gina Rhinehards and the Australian denial site ....
paid pet Jenifer Marohasy


Her group ... funded by oil and gas and coal ... Gina has a big coal mine is the Australian version of the Koch brothers in her funding of climate denial.

Australian think-tank that has received funding from petroleum, mining, logging, and tobacco concerns. In 2018, _DeSmog _confirmed mining magnate and climate change denier Gina Rinehart was a key backer of IPA, providing between a third and a half of the group's entire income via her company Hancock Prospecting Proprietary Ltd (HPPL).

Her views ....
“Global warming is actually not a hard issue to dissect, because fundamentally it relies on evidence of there being a general trend of temperature increase - and measuring temperatures is not rocket science. Of course, there is nowhere on Earth where the mean global temperature anomaly can be measured. So, steer-clear when this statistic is mentioned by an expert - you can probably dismiss it as something entirely contrived, like say the Virgin birth.”



Or this
“Because the masses believe that global atmospheric temperatures are rising unnaturally – the Hazelwood coal-fired power station was decommissioned, and the price of electricity is surging across Australia. The evidence, however, for a rise in global temperatures is actually not that compelling – unless you believe the output from computer models. … So, I have always thought, once this obsession with catastrophic global warming eventually comes to an end (as surely it must), we will be able to start over, with the real data.”

OR this ..
The paper claimed that climate change is largely the result of natural phenomena, which led other skeptics and conservative media outlets such as _Breitbart_ and the _Drudge Report_ to promote it. After review by climate scientists, however, the report was found to contain several obvious flaws and was recommended for redaction.

OR this
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) confirmed 2013 as the continent’s hottest year on record, prompting Marohasy to accuse the BOM of manipulating temperature data to fit the consensus view on anthropogenic climate change

_*Affiliations
*_


_*

Institute of Public Affairs — Environment Unit Director, 2003; Senior Fellow, 2004–2009, 2015–present. [9], [8] THE RHINEHART CLIMATE DENIAL CENTER ... 

Australian Environment Foundation — Director, 2005-2009. [5], [6], [7]

Myth and the Murray Group — Former spokesperson. [1]

Central Queensland University — Adjunct Senior Research Fellow (July 2011 – June 2015). [8]

Climate Modeling Laboratory — Founder, 2015-present. [8] FANTASY ? 
*_
_I would also add .... This Gina Rhinehart funded denail blog along with other climate denier types has such luminaries as *ex head of Liberal party *and various other senior members as is backers, advisors and board members.* 

Michael Kroger ,,, and a very long list of people whom I like as much as the Koch brothers.

*
I dont of course dispute the area burnt .... after record rain early 1974 .... and frankly no one could be bothered putting out vast tracts of desert and very sparsely populated regions that had gone nuts due to massive record rain Summer hit and it caught alight !! SURPRISE !! 

I am not sure given the person pumping this and her record and totally failing to mention WHY so much area burnt, and WHY it burnt due to MASSIVE and EXTREME rain and flooding early 1974 RECORD FLOODING ... it kind of in that context verses her narrative looks idiotic in the extreme .

Each can make their own judgement but in the story she is also denying record temperatures. ... AGAIN ... she and others behind discrediting the BOM and in fact every single data point.

Amusing and why .. it actually pays to check the source.
I might add the floods were pretty widespread over Australia in 1974 and growth of course went nuts.
Pity we are the TOTAL opposite .... rainfall wise 2019  and here we have deliberate BS comparing I would say two totally different things.

But thanks. I was too surprised to read the totals and then dug ... and researched sources, and then the light went on. 
*
Amazing what a billionaire can buy ... 

*
During the fire period in 1974-75, up to 15 fires were being reported each day in CA. It is
estimated that 1,000,000 km² or 13% of the Australian continent was burnt (Ralph 1984).
Up to 80% of the Uluru (Ayers Rock) National Park was burnt. As a consequence,
Government agencies made a determined effort to develop and implement a wildfire aversion strategy for the park (Saxon 1984). The knowledge generated by this fire management plan then provided a model for how spinifex vegetation could be managed
in other CA parks and reserves (Preece et al. 1989)
*
Does this sound like 2019 ? 
*
CA is arid desert central Australia and three deserts I checked burnt. 

So Vast tracts of DESERT burnt ... pretty hard to put out a grass fire with no water. Hence the size 

Relevance ? Not much. 
*


*_


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## qldfrog (7 January 2020)

For donations, I just contributed to WIRES:
http://www.paypal.com/fundraiser/112574447199339912
wildlife did not vote and the carnage was not burnt wildlife's fault;
stay safe


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## sptrawler (7 January 2020)

Interesting article on home insurance and bushfires.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...car-rural-australia/11844992?section=analysis


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## wayneL (7 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> @tinhat, in qld at least:
> agree on lack of resource, any serious ecosystem expert would indeed favor proper fire management etc
> But the fact remains that here i can not legally cut a tree for a fire break: Moreton Bay council at least unless i only cut non native species
> So no, SHY is not passing a law making me burn to death, but tree clearing regulations, vegetation management laws and centrally managed permitting act the same, and they are all under the environmental protection label.
> ...



BOOM!

ON two sides of my place is thick, dangerous bush. My place is very treed (and I like that, but there are a couple of smaller trees that are in inconvenient spots). We are not allowed to touch a thing.

Yet across the road and on one side, the bush has been razed for housing estates (and the builders have left us with an immense rubbish problem).

Our place and the others will go to developers eventually too, as it is in a development corrifor; meanwhile we have to treat it like a world heritage site, until the dozers come in and flatten everything.

It is truly an absurd situation.


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## qldfrog (7 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Interesting article on home insurance and bushfires.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...car-rural-australia/11844992?section=analysis



it is a lose lose situation: you under insure, you are screwed, but if you over insure, you pay the higher fees but when **** happens, the insurance will tell you: you did not have golden plated taps, this is all what your house was worth...
insurances as stated here before should take responsability; and say: this is a new for old policy, item for item; including cleaning mess, new code regulations, koala spotter hire to check your charred stumps as per council policy etc etc


if you want to insure for less , your call and you can, but we will only pay back whatever amount you paid for.
It is all too easy to blame it on the people from the insurer side
but also to have disingenuous  people crying poor while not insured at all and receiving donation money whereas the insured next door is left high and dry after having been racketed all his life..inc by the governments..see the taxes on your premiums....


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## SirRumpole (7 January 2020)

A question for any legal eagles out there (or explod maybe).

If a farmer (say), or any other person legally able to carry a firearm sees a person lighting a fire in a period of high fire danger, and they can be pretty sure that that person is not part of a firefighting operation, can the farmer legally shoot the "arsonist" ?


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## sptrawler (7 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> A question for any legal eagles out there (or explod maybe).
> 
> If a farmer (say), or any other person legally able to carry a firearm sees a person lighting a fire in a period of high fire danger, and they can be pretty sure that that person is not part of a firefighting operation, can the farmer legally shoot the "arsonist" ?



Absolutely not, in Australia, reasonable force does not include shooting someone, unfortunately.


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## IFocus (7 January 2020)

Grass fire burn over in 2015 to give some perspective of being on the front line when it all goes wrong


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## qldfrog (7 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> A question for any legal eagles out there (or explod maybe).
> 
> If a farmer (say), or any other person legally able to carry a firearm sees a person lighting a fire in a period of high fire danger, and they can be pretty sure that that person is not part of a firefighting operation, can the farmer legally shoot the "arsonist" ?



You do not live in the land of freedom, if someone stabs you and you shot him/her you go to jail
Your response was not proportional...
Do you not remember the farmer who got into trouble by arresting a thief using an uncharged gun here in qld?and neither him or his wife can own a gun nowin a cattke station...


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## qldfrog (7 January 2020)

I think the only way you could get away with shooting someone..i do not say kill..would be if he had already killed someone just before


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## qldfrog (7 January 2020)

But during a fire, if you do not miss, you may be able to have all evidences incinerated...


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## IFocus (7 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Always thought these were bad news round the house. Didn't know we exported th
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.livescience.com/amp/40583-australia-wildfires-eucalyptus-trees-bushfires.html




Planted all through the Andes in norther Peru to help stop land slides after the locals deforested their own species.

Thought I was seeing things when I 1st saw them.


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## sptrawler (7 January 2020)

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...turday-hills-set-to-burn-20200106-p53p7v.html

From the article:
_Mark Morrow lives in Kinglake West where his house, and eight others around it, were lost in 2009 (they have now been rebuilt).

“If we get another fire now, it’d be just as bad as Black Saturday," he said. "They’ve done no clearing, they’ve done nothing with the undergrowth. I went for a walk through the bush, and it’s just as thick as it was – probably thicker_.
_Because much of the region’s forest is close to towns, it is extremely difficult to carry out planned burns. Using fire, bulldozers and grass slashing, government agencies have only been able to cut the risk in the region by about 4 per cent.

"We’re in the grip of a very significant drought event, pretty well in most of the south-eastern half of Victoria," says Dr Jim McLennan, a bushfire safety researcher at La Trobe University_.
_A fire in east-central Victoria is one of the CFA's nightmare scenarios. Almost 60 per cent of Victoria’s population live there and about half of them live in properties close to bushland. Many are "tree-changers" who are have not seen a bushfire before. It has some of the most flammable vegetation on Earth_.

_I drove from Koo Wee Rup up to Launching Place. You look at the houses that are embedded in the bush. In a drought situation, it’s a deathtrap for them, there is nothing else you can say," says retired CSIRO bushfire scientist Phil Cheney.

More than than half of all Victoria’s bushfire deaths have happened in the region. It burnt on Black Thursday in 1851, Black Friday in 1939, Ash Wednesday in 1983, and Black Saturday in 2009. After 2009 the bushfire risk fell dramatically – because there was little left to burn.

But the forests have now grown back, reaching the same risk levels as before the huge blaze_.
.
This underlines what 'tinhat' said about lack of money and lack of resources and it is getting dryer, they have to spend more money doing burnoffs, when the weather allows. Or stop people building in those areas most affected, so that natural buffers can be added.


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## sptrawler (7 January 2020)

Then you get this reported, *is there any wonder people don't know who to believe*.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...n-debate-rubbish-says-vic-fire-chief/11849522
From the article:
_Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has moved to shut down calls for a massive increase in fuel reduction burns, as the state's fire chief says the debate has involved "hysteria" and an "emotional load of rubbish"
_
*Planned burning 'not a silver bullet'*
_Asked about the issue this afternoon, Mr Andrews said prescribed burns were part of an integrated strategy focused on protecting life but there were fewer days each year when they could be safely lit.

"Surely no-one is advocating that we put fire into the landscape in an unsafe way. That just wouldn't be sensible, that would be dangerous," he said._
*Key points:*

_Former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce and others have called for more planned burns in the wake of the bushfires_
_But the Country Fire Authority's chief officer says the "hysteria" over planned burns is "an emotional load of rubbish"_
_The Premier says the window during which planned burns can be safely attempted is becoming smaller each year_.
Well that again IMO would back up what 'tinhat' said if the window to burn off is getting smaller employ more people and resources to carry it out.
The only other answer is to remove houses from areas of high probability.
Finger pointing and saying it can't be done isn't the answer, if the climate is getting dryer, then the fuel load has to be reduced or the people relocated. Thankfully Morrison didn't come up with this story.


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## kahuna1 (7 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> can the farmer legally shoot the "arsonist" ?




Yes ... 
One may be charged with murder ... or manslaughter ...
But ... like a burglar ... if they are confronted and they attack you ... you have a right to use justifiable force.

So ... if your grass is tinder dry ... and its a direct clear and easily seen life threatening action which ... is WHERE ... the justifiable force issues arises, shooting them to prevent what you asses as a very good life threatening action, would despite likely being charged ... overturned in any court.

If the arsonist is lighting a fire unlikely to spread too far in wet winter weather ... thats another thing.

If say the arsonist is dousing the house where you wife and child lay asleep and putting them in dire risk ... YES is the answer and your unlikely to even get charged.

This in NSW ... they changed the laws a few years aog after a burglar sued the person who owned the property and defended himself. Even more absurd was the case of the burglar injured whilst trying to break in.

Not suggesting anyone EVER does it. Think very carefully ... 
Much the same if your qualified and someone and even a group attacks you ... how far one goes beyond putting someone on the ground ... you may end up being charged with assault even aggravated assault when the fight was started unprovoked ... and you merely defended yourself or a loved one.

Tricky part of the law ... justifying ... not going to far and each case differs vastly from the rest.

Think ... think very closely ... unless I suppose they have your house doused with petrol or an area that will ignite and threaten people .... use of force a bloody nightmare.

Call the police ... take pictures ... shoot over their head ...  but of course .. there is scope to everything. It would be I think highly unusual for use of deadly force to be justified outside extreme fire risks and clearly defined threat to life.

that is my read, possibly out of date ... not as a copper but with utmost respect for them and with some background all be it irrelevant.

Maybe a real lawyer can elaborate ... but .. unless your a criminal one, its ... well ... specialized ... a cop will of course say call them ...  but not possible at times when being attacked.


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## qldfrog (7 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Or stop people building in those areas most affected, so that natural buffers can be added.



Only if these can be burnt off or cleared, otherwise, people can probably manage these betters than having them declared state forest or conservation area/wilderness areas
One of the issues we have had is fires burning for months. the RFS role is not to extinguish fires but to protect :
once no property or life is at risk, it is so call contained..meaning let go as noone is on the path, next hot windy day, you got embers flying everywhere and a disaster like last week 
so I also think we also need   a fleet of water bombing planes to actually stop these in the bud or mop up without having to wait for the rain.CC or not, drought do happen regularily, it will happen again, we know that even before it has finished


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## sptrawler (7 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Only if these can be burnt off or cleared, otherwise, people can probably manage these betters than having them declared state forest or conservation area/wilderness areas
> One of the issues we have had is fires burning for months. the RFS role is not to extinguish fires but to protect :
> once no property or life is at risk, it is so call contained..meaning let go as noone is on the path, next hot windy day, you got embers flying everywhere and a disaster like last week
> so I also think we also need   a fleet of water bombing planes to actually stop these in the bud or mop up without having to wait for the rain.CC or not, drought do happen regularily, it will happen again, we know that even before it has finished



Which is what 'tinhat' said more people and resources. Also you should only allow people to build a certain distance away from a State forest, so buffer zones can be easily maintained.
Saying we can't burn it, and you can build houses in the forest is just living in fairy land, why should the taxpayer and insurance premiums have to cover an unavoidable disaster every 10 years, that isn't even including the immeasurable heartache and loss of life.
The World has gone bonkers.


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## SirRumpole (7 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Tricky part of the law ... justifying ... not going to far and each case differs vastly from the rest.




I'd say even if you are charged and are tried in the local community by people whose houses may have been burned down, you are unlikely to be convicted, if you want to take that risk.


----------



## sptrawler (7 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I'd say even if you are charged and are tried in the local community by people whose houses may have been burned down, you are unlikely to be convicted, if you want to take that risk.



Well you try it, then we can follow your lead, if it works out.


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## kahuna1 (7 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I'd say even if you are charged and are tried in the local community by people whose houses may have been burned down, you are unlikely to be convicted, if you want to take that risk.




I wish reality was this ... reality is sadly not like this.
Fighting or defending a case is expensive, lawyers are quite often hopeless and even worse generalists with next to zero experience in various fields. Getting a decent criminal lawyer in regional areas, forget it.

Having spent a few years assisting others, complex legal cases verses goverment or even semi goverment funded bodies is exhausting because they just come back, and back ... and back and back.

Advice is never go to court.
Second is to deny and dont speak, tape interviews ... dont offer or answer anything. You are not compelled to do so unless you before a body such as a crime commission where legally you MUST.

People and we humans loose interest in someone being sent to the dogs whether its totally unjustified or not. You may sympathize, and listen but some cases take literally years and then appeals and on and on it goes. 

Basically a nightmare. Especially if the person injured is special needs or interests and then the facts, go out the bloody window. Your racist or whatever.

Avoid it like the plague. Even what appear simple cases are long drawn out stressful and not what you might expect. Simple debt recovery of even a small amount a lawyer often not worth the total amount and facing an overworked local magistrate who does not tolerate people representing themselves is scary even if well prepared. Most are not. Most have no idea and the outcome is what one might expect.

Avoid it ... if you can


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## SirRumpole (7 January 2020)

How not to help the fire victims.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...-problems-in-nsw-fire-affected-areas/11848180


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## moXJO (7 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> How not to help the fire victims.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...-problems-in-nsw-fire-affected-areas/11848180



Did we run out of poor people or something??
Just flick it to the salvos


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## SirRumpole (8 January 2020)

What a fire chief says about hazard reduction burning.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...n-debate-rubbish-says-vic-fire-chief/11849522


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## cynic (8 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> What a fire chief says about hazard reduction burning.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...n-debate-rubbish-says-vic-fire-chief/11849522



Those taking the time to carefully read that article's actual content, and taking careful notice of that which was actually reported to have been said, will likely conclude that the headline is somewhat incongruent and misleading.


----------



## qldfrog (8 January 2020)

If you speak French or use google translate 
https://www.lefigaro.fr/internation...es-images-des-incendies-en-australie-20200107
People starting to realise the manipulation present everywhere on the news and pictures
Specifically 5 viral pictures either out of context or purely manipulated to push an agenda


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## moXJO (8 January 2020)

https://omny.fm/shows/nights/must-l...KSTMphz5TQ6TM7rQI6SLnqGX7aHsPB7yU#description

Seeing a bit of a trend to lead the narrative and push the CC angle. 

Someone mentioned that Murdoch was to powerful but truth is Social media is one of the greatest propaganda platforms I've seen. A lot of the memes/videos are coming from funded groups to sway either side. 

For the first time in history my wife came and complained about scomo after watching a facebook video. Libs are seriously lagging in this department. The utter lack of media finesse will be the end of this government. And that's probably the least of the problems this government has.


----------



## moXJO (8 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> If you speak French or use google translate
> https://www.lefigaro.fr/internation...es-images-des-incendies-en-australie-20200107
> People starting to realise the manipulation present everywhere on the news and pictures
> Specifically 5 viral pictures either out of context or purely manipulated to push an agenda



Oh no not our tiger population!!


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## sptrawler (8 January 2020)

Not good for the P.M to be away on holidays, but o.k for CC activists to stage a demonstration to remove resources, at the height of the problem .

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...elbourne-a-resource-drain-say-police/11851626

Guess it doesn't matter, if you have right on your side.
It would be great if these kids were getting an education, that actually gave them the ability to understand what they were doing, the times table would probably help them negotiate the issues and reduce their own carbon footprint.


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## Smurf1976 (9 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Social media is one of the greatest propaganda platforms I've seen. A lot of the memes/videos are coming from funded groups to sway either side.




Also be aware that most search engines by virtue of the way they work put users in a bubble.

Whichever "side" you read last time, they'll serve up more of the same next time thus entrenching your world view whatever that happens to be.


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## sptrawler (9 January 2020)

I just read that relief donations helped by musical and film entertainers donations has passed $140m
https://www.smh.com.au/national/bushfire-relief-donations-surpass-140-million-20200108-p53ptz.html

One would hope that the media, with all the 'airplay'it has got out of the situation, could at least spend as much time monitoring the distribution of the funds, as it has bagging all and sundry 'missing in action' in the name of a headline.
If they can can apply the same pressure to those who accept the funds, that they applied to the PM, to ensure they are transfer honestly and in total to those that require them, that will be nice.
Just my opinion.


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## qldfrog (9 January 2020)

To put things into perspective
https://jennifermarohasy.com/2020/01/it-has-been-hotter-fires-have-burnt-larger-areas/
The inconvenient truth...
SP, Smurf and those interested in science can read more about how we are using instant top instead of averaging for our temperatures and so have lost ability to compare data since 2011..
Is THAT fake news? It is relevant as this now allow better comparison with past situations..and yes i know our past started in the 1880s.....


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## Humid (9 January 2020)

http://www.readfearn.com/tag/jennifer-marohasy/


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## sptrawler (9 January 2020)

I love a conspiracy theory, someone will be making a lot of money by skewing data, that has always happened and always will, be it for personal gain or mischief.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...-bushfire-misinformation-20200108-p53pwx.html
From the article:
He urged people to rely on news from government bodies and trusted media outlets during emergencies.

Online posts featuring misleading images, reports about the scale of the fires and its cause have been spread on social media platforms. On Wednesday the hashtag #ArsonEmergency was trending nationally, with users using it to critique the link between bushfires and climate change, a topic which raised concerns with social media analysts.

Chairman of the ACCC Rod Sims said scams relating to donations for bushfire victims were an example of why a code of conduct needed to be implemented.


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## Humid (9 January 2020)

Did you see the date


----------



## IFocus (9 January 2020)

The future?

Scroll down to see Dr Tom Fairman, a Forest Scientist observations 

https://twitter.com/itsnotfairman 


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENf6vzpVUAUJENk.jpg


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## Humid (9 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Also be aware that most search engines by virtue of the way they work put users in a bubble.
> 
> Whichever "side" you read last time, they'll serve up more of the same next time thus entrenching your world view whatever that happens to be.




Have you tried DuckDuckGo?
Probably not appropriate at the moment but you burn the page


----------



## bellenuit (10 January 2020)

Humid said:


> Have you tried DuckDuckGo?




I love it.


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## basilio (11 January 2020)

Laura Tingle has an outstanding article which starts to explore the massive ongoing effects of the bushfires .
*In the face of a bushfire catastrophe, our national conversation is still run by politics*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...sis-just-dont-mention-climate-change/11857590


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## moXJO (11 January 2020)

basilio said:


> Laura Tingle has an outstanding article which starts to explore the massive ongoing effects of the bushfires .
> *In the face of a bushfire catastrophe, our national conversation is still run by politics*
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...sis-just-dont-mention-climate-change/11857590



It's not the primary cause. And even if it were there is nothing Australia can do but prepare against it. Which is basically land management, building codes, etc. Reducing carbon locally won't do squat. We could reduce emissions by 200% of last year's total and still have no effect.
I just find it a convenient excuse to pass the buck. Oh its "climate change" and ignore the stuff we can actually manage.

Yelling at carbon is doing nothing. Either we adapt or suffer, that is literally our choice for now.

I noticed NSW is doubling the size of the RO water plant. I wonder what they do with the dirty water? Usually 3L to make 1L clean. 
But these are the things we will actually need. 
Water, food, adjust building codes, air quality, heat management etc.


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## Smurf1976 (11 January 2020)

Humid said:


> Have you tried DuckDuckGo?
> Probably not appropriate at the moment but you burn the page



Yep - it's good.

Thing is though it's a bit like the media or cars or anything else. Most people use or own what's mainstream so if there's some problem with the mainstream version that leads to certain perceptions being formed then that becomes an issue even if a few individuals know how to avoid them.

When those perceptions are to the extent that they potentially change the outcome of elections well that's getting rather serious.


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## Smurf1976 (11 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> I noticed NSW is doubling the size of the RO water plant. I wonder what they do with the dirty water? Usually 3L to make 1L clean.




I'm not familiar with the NSW one specifically but in general they take sea water in, separate some fresh water from that, and put the rest back into the sea. 

So there's a substantial flow of water back into the sea, it just contains less actual water (thus more of everything else) than did the water which went into the plant. Effectively the same end result as natural evaporation - the H2O comes out but the rest doesn't.

At a simplistic level that's it. Obviously more complexity in the details of actually doing it.


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## Smurf1976 (11 January 2020)

basilio said:


> *In the face of a bushfire catastrophe, our national conversation is still run by politics*




Part of the problem is that the word "bushfire" could be replaced by quite a few other examples and the same would still hold true.

Science of any sort, either science as such or its practical application (engineering, construction, conservation, anything) has been shoved aside and replaced by pure politics.

It didn't used to be that way, it's something that has come about in relatively recent times (bit hard to put a precise date on it but I'd say gradually over the past ~30 years is order of magnitude right).


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## qldfrog (11 January 2020)

A bit off subject @Smurf1976 but clearly strong impacts on what is going to happen next:
I would link it to the university paradox: same IQ in population, actually slightly decreasing, half of population graduates (or attempt to) by the 2020  be it with a major in gender studies..yes it exists
And then you have 50pc of the population who believe they are experts in anything, are unable to even follow a logical reasoning process but shout louder and get their argument or opinions, pre mashed straight from whatever rubbish paper /net page written by a 28yold with a major in journalism and a strong opinion.
Often leftist..as per university trend but not always, the left does not have the privilege of stupidity sadly
The west is doom, and only Blind Freddy is unaware, too busy protesting with Extinction rebellion or telling me that I could have started a reduction burn or cut tree in my block anytime, there is no red green tape.
They know better they read it in the Guardian or their ABC
Our Chinese friends are ecstatic, who need missiles with voters like that


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## IFocus (11 January 2020)

I think Macca or Logique raised this     

Firefighter compensation government sham

Only a very few volunteer firefighters or SES members are likely to be eligible for the compensation package promised by the Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.


https://www.fassifernguardian.com/f...0TsVU72QUSgW-szW4StuyKudIK_gWzKey0mdUUKAr3keU


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## basilio (11 January 2020)

The Murdoch Press has spread much misinformation and  outright lies on the role of arsonists in relation to the bushfires currently trashing  Australia.

Police and fire authorities have examined the facts behind how dangerous arsonists have been. The reality ? Bugger all.

*The truth about Australia's fires — arsonists aren't responsible for many this season*
Only about 1 per cent of the land burnt in NSW this bushfire season can be officially attributed to arson, and it is even less in Victoria, the ABC can reveal.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/australias-fires-reveal-arson-not-a-major-cause/11855022


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## kahuna1 (11 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Science of any sort, either science as such or its practical application (engineering, construction, conservation, anything) has been shoved aside and replaced by pure politics.




Whilst I know how little I actually know, to say  dismiss a story because it comes from any place, or research you dont like is foolish.

Science is science .... facts are facts. Reality and scientifically repeatable reality is real. When choosing a party that extols the virtues of something we know is bad, say smoking, we would excuse ourselves from their diatribe or be rude.

I note today, Murdoch press out of control, shock jocks the same. Today both NSW and Vic fire chiefs spoke at length about the fires and their cause. It was and is drowned out in a sea of swill.

One word they used, both of them ... RFS heads ,,, both debunking control burns as the major issue. One word they used was Moisture .... Moisture content ... Vic one said things that normally dont burn ARE burning due to extreme lack of humidity, moisture and rain over recent years.

Something lost and likely totally lost in mist of pure BS and political agendas ... climate denial and so on.

When its not even accepted the extreme dry conditions when the head of the RFS in the two hardest hit states recently are saying it, heaven help us. One thing they are well aware of is fire and using a paper based upon pre 2000 rainfall, works until, well ... for whatever reason we have the lowest rainfall for 150 years. Again the RFS and Vic ones set their fire risks off that very measure, wind, temp, rainfall.moisture.

I would agree the debate changed 30-40 or so years ago. When one has the Heritage Foundation training the climate sites in Australia, as they did and that's the Koch Brothers, we sadly are not likely to change because of similar reasons the USA  is unable to. USA is donation driven, ours well ... is self interest driven with propaganda entrenched positions which have not altered for 40 years.

Back into my hole, I am thankful there has been a reprieve of some sorts. Saddened that 600,000 Hectares of the Snowy region is now black.


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## Smurf1976 (11 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Whilst I know how little I actually know, to say  dismiss a story because it comes from any place, or research you dont like is foolish.



Agreed definitely.

My personal view is that the whole thing has been so politicized that there's a need for a properly independent inquiry.

If it were up to me then I'd be assembling an assortment of competent scientific people from various fields, from fire behaviour to ecology to things like civil engineering, and putting someone from overseas in charge in an effort to stamp out any political bias.

Task them with factually identifying all contributing factors in as much detail as practical and identifying all options for mitigation in as much detail as possible. Put figures against everything as to the magnitude to which they contribute to cause or solution as appropriate.

So the intent is that we come up with a report that says arson caused x% of the fires, lightning started y%, the effect of climate change is estimated to be z, and so on. Plus we identify that changes to building codes could achieve this, hazard reduction burns could do something else and so on. A comprehensive and unbiased report.

It won't happen though for political reasons. No side of politics is going to risk having something which shoots down their ideological view even slightly. It would be the right approach though - a strictly scientific one, no politics.


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## Smurf1976 (11 January 2020)

basilio said:


> The Murdoch Press has spread much misinformation and  outright lies on the role of arsonists in relation to the bushfires currently trashing  Australia.
> 
> Police and fire authorities have examined the facts behind how dangerous arsonists have been. The reality ? Bugger all.




I suspect that one lasting effect of the fires is that it has opened the eyes of many to the fact that they can't trust what the media is telling them. Rarely has there been such a stark contrast between media outlets as there is now.

The only source I've found which has been reporting factual information with little or no politics is the BBC. How sad it is that we need to rely on a foreign government broadcaster on the other side of the world to tell us what's going on in our own country.


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## qldfrog (12 January 2020)

I will try the BBC, i so would like to find a proper source of info.

For the time being, i i lo for the unsaid or lines at the bottom of articles to try to find some truth, even figures can not be trusted as associated context differs or is tweaked..as per the top temperature discussed before
From their ABC
A fire fighting person: Matt, died last Wednesday in action during a traffic accident.it is sad and a tragedy for his family  and friends
But the following is even more uosetting
"On that day he had extinguished seven unattended campfires. He was doing incredibly critical work," Mr Hardman said at the time
In Victoria last Wednesday...
By any other name i would call that arson.Do not see much CC in action here but definitely an overpopulation of at the very least dimwits and this is a too kind a word


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## qldfrog (12 January 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/victorian-firefighter-dies-in-omeo/11860722?pfmredir=sm
Where i got the previous quote
Mat Kavanagh RIP


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## Tink (12 January 2020)

These fires remind me of 2003

The *Eastern Victorian alpine bushfires*, started with eighty-seven fires that were started by lightning in the north east of Victoria on 8 January 2003. Eight of these fires were unable to be contained and joined together to form the largest fire in Victoria since the 1939 "Black Friday" bushfires.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Eastern_Victorian_alpine_bushfires


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## qldfrog (12 January 2020)

Tink said:


> These fires remind me of 2003
> 
> The *Eastern Victorian alpine bushfires*, started with eighty-seven fires that were started by lightning in the north east of Victoria on 8 January 2003. Eight of these fires were unable to be contained and joined together to form the largest fire in Victoria since the 1939 "Black Friday" bushfires.[1]
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Eastern_Victorian_alpine_bushfires



14 to 18y drought cycle , add all mismanagement factors and we do not need CC which has per model only added 1c so far..if we can not manage our land now without any significant CC effect, we have no hope if CC indeed starts affecting us significantly


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## basilio (15 January 2020)

How effective are Fuel Reduction buns ?  How dangerous are they ?
John Thwaites was Minister in the Victorian Government in 2005 when fuel reduction burns got out of hand. This analysis explains the whole picture.

*It's climate change, not 'greens' standing in the way of fuel reduction burns *
Higher temperatures, dryer fuel and strong winds in autumn and spring are making it unsafe to burn

John Thwaites

Wed 15 Jan 2020 03.30 AEDT   Last modified on Wed 15 Jan 2020 03.36 AEDT

Shares
235
 
* Comments*
 680 




‘Fuel reduction burns should not be used as a weapon in the culture wars in order to divert attention from the need to act on climate change.’ Photograph: Jeremy Piper/AAP
In April 2005, a fire burnt much of Victoria’s beloved national park at Wilsons Promontory leading to the evacuation of holidaymakers from Tidal River. The fire was the result of a fuel reduction burn, which escaped 10 days after it was lit when the weather became hot and windy. I remember it well as I was Victoria’s environment minister at the time, responsible for the park and the burn.

The then premier Steve Bracks was one of the campers evacuated.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...s-standing-in-the-way-of-fuel-reduction-burns


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## macca (15 January 2020)

basilio said:


> How effective are Fuel Reduction buns ?  How dangerous are they ?
> John Thwaites was Minister in the Victorian Government in 2005 when fuel reduction burns got out of hand. This analysis explains the whole picture.
> 
> *It's climate change, not 'greens' standing in the way of fuel reduction burns *
> ...





I note that in the article they were conducting a burn off in April, are they really that inept ? 

As it happens I was down at Wilsons P in November, the roadside was a tinderbox full of ti tree scrub, a bomb waiting to explode. 

It seems that they trim the branches which protrude over the road, they then chuck these into the scrub at the side of the road, a double whammy to ensure no exit via the road,

Kind of like the burn off in Sydney in a NP, they lit the fire at the entry to a gorge then walked INTO the gorge, got trapped and burnt, incredibly stupid people.

The powers that be need to accept the fact that they have NFI about this and talk to all the old fire captains, farmers and old indigenous people and learn what used to happen.

They call in Eco burning in the NT WA and FNQ and it works, we have NO other option, just do it FFS


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## chiff (15 January 2020)

basilio said:


> How effective are Fuel Reduction buns ?  How dangerous are they ?
> John Thwaites was Minister in the Victorian Government in 2005 when fuel reduction burns got out of hand. This analysis explains the whole picture.
> 
> *It's climate change, not 'greens' standing in the way of fuel reduction burns *
> ...



Fuel reduction burns...I hope that we get some experts involved in these ,with some balance.The understory contains,different flora and fuana- animals that do not reside further up the trees.


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## qldfrog (15 January 2020)

chiff said:


> Fuel reduction burns...I hope that we get some experts involved in these ,with some balance.The understory contains,different flora and fuana- animals that do not reside further up the trees.



mosaic burning or whatever is the latest term, you burn areas in a kind of rotational way to allow fire prevention but also food production/germination and ensure cover protection is still available in nearby areas for displaced fauna
It is a very productive management (for wildlife as we do not really hunt anymore) and a way which has been suited to natives (I mean fauna/flora) over the last 30000y; and over multiple climate change events


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## qldfrog (16 January 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...l-commission-this-is-why/11870824?pfmredir=sm
Very nice article, dodge the anti Morrison, CC crap interseeded but the article itself   is perfect.
We know what we to do, but we need the will and budget to do that
The submarine program bill is at 80 billions,.
 in Qld, while we were burning, our Premier was in Switzerland as we want to host Olympics game..not kidding ...
and i am sure other states have the money, a matter of priorities
Where i differ is that realistically, we will need another 100 millions wasted on another royal Commission, same outcome and recommendations but hopefully more leverage to actually act this time


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## moXJO (16 January 2020)

Heavy rain here. Hope it hits the fires


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## qldfrog (17 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Heavy rain here. Hope it hits the fires



Same here in SE qld, tanks now overflowing and creeks started running again, more more more

Otherwise the usual story
https://www.news.com.au/technology/...n/news-story/5b492aef8ff92e721f47abde3561152e
Complete disconnection between people on the ground living in an area and the power to be
If my property had burnt, i i cou cut and paste 2001 last burns, a token one since, enormous fuel load..making it now very difficult to even try hazard reduction
Hopefully this rain will stop all fires but sadly the problems remain


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## moXJO (17 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Same here in SE qld, tanks now overflowing and creeks started running again, more more more
> 
> Otherwise the usual story
> https://www.news.com.au/technology/...n/news-story/5b492aef8ff92e721f47abde3561152e
> ...



2nd day of decent rain. Hope it's hitting the dams as well.
All this will wash away scomo's sins. 
And once again bushfire hazards and preventative measures can be forgotten. Let the token effort of carbon reduction begin....

Topsoil washing away will be a problem as well if the rain keeps up.


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## qldfrog (17 January 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...-aid-too-little-too-late/11869252?pfmredir=sm
How do you read this?
Am i an heartless bastard or is it just the fact i never received welfare so never learnt to complain about receiving only 1.2k because ...  I exist ...so deserve it, obviously
Seriously, i can not even understand how such an article could be written...


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## Ferret (17 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> How do you read this?



Not insured....
People have to take some responsibility for themselves, in this case insuring your home.  

I am happy to help those who have made the effort to help themselves but are still suffering due to what's happened.  I feel far less generous to those who haven't bothered with insurance, haven't paid the associated fire levies etc.


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## Smurf1976 (17 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Where i differ is that realistically, we will need another 100 millions wasted on another royal Commission, same outcome and recommendations but hopefully more leverage to actually act this time



The potential benefit of a Royal Commission is that of cutting through the political BS.

It shouldn't be necessary to do that but it's a way around the obstacles potentially.


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## SirRumpole (17 January 2020)

Ferret said:


> Not insured....
> People have to take some responsibility for themselves, in this case insuring your home.
> 
> I am happy to help those who have made the effort to help themselves but are still suffering due to what's happened.  I feel far less generous to those who haven't bothered with insurance, haven't paid the associated fire levies etc.




I would be less generous to people who can afford insurance and haven't paid it, but with the way premiums are going it will become less affordable for more people.


----------



## IFocus (17 January 2020)

Ferret said:


> Not insured....
> People have to take some responsibility for themselves, in this case insuring your home.
> 
> I am happy to help those who have made the effort to help themselves but are still suffering due to what's happened.  I feel far less generous to those who haven't bothered with insurance, haven't paid the associated fire levies etc.




Talking about insurance whats it going to cost per year now NW of WA gets absolutely hammered now, I wonder if it will move people out of bushfire risk areas or even insurance wont be available if the insurers rate the risk to high, interesting times ahead.


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## cynic (17 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The potential benefit of a Royal Commission is that of cutting through the political BS.
> 
> It shouldn't be necessary to do that but it's a way around the obstacles potentially.



The problem that I experienced with the last RC, is that local government took eight years to implement the recommendations and then, very promptly, initiated a review, with the express intention of (amongst other things) seeking the removal of the (very recently applied) Bushfire Management Overlay (BMO).


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## macca (17 January 2020)

Over 50 reports and enquiries in the last 80 years, all same the same thing, no fuel no fire, but not really practical. How about reduce fuel reduce fire, that we can do, do it !!

Over the past 20 years in particular, the green influence in the local councils has all but stopped any hazard reduction, now we reap what we sow.

Unfortunately it is the general populace that bear the brunt, I do think with these fires being SO bad we will see a lot more hazard reduction where needed


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## qldfrog (17 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I would be less generous to people who can afford insurance and haven't paid it, but with the way premiums are going it will become less affordable for more people.



They have a kid, I do not know about you but we waited to be able to afford a kid to have one:
no subsidized childcare or baby bonus 20y ago, or maternity leave and we needed a buffer so that the lady could have a few months off around the birth
The way I see it;
you do not have a house or a car if you can not insure it is , you downgrade, you rent
that is probably why we are on opposite sides election day
Anyway, that is why all my donations went to WIRES and not the Salvos..which is bsad, because I am sure some people deserve help (if only to bridge before insurances payments) but I would hate to see my money, on top of taxes going that way
We probably need a proper recovery assistance system, well thought about,  in cases of catastrophes fires or others.not just adhoc emergency speeches


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## SirRumpole (17 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> They have a kid, I do not know about you but we waited to be able to afford a kid to have one:
> no subsidized childcare or baby bonus 20y ago, or maternity leave and we needed a buffer so that the lady could have a few months off around the birth
> The way I see it;
> you do not have a house or a car if you can not insure it is , you downgrade, you rent
> ...




I think it will get to the stage where the insurance companies will price themselves out of the market and the government will have to step in and offer affordable insurance.


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## macca (17 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I think it will get to the stage where the insurance companies will price themselves out of the market and the government will have to step in and offer affordable insurance.




Or they could insist that people clear 50m around their houses and the council has to enforce it rather than stop it


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## qldfrog (17 January 2020)

macca said:


> Or they could insist that people clear 50m around their houses and the council has to enforce it rather than stop it



or the insurance could vary the premium based on actual site inspection:
I pay the same premium as a neighbour for a same house yet the fact I have a fire pump, extra tanks, potentially things like a roof sprinkler, generator, own water supply etc etc does not matter ..no one asks even the type of vegetation around, the slope etc etc


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## SirRumpole (17 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> or the insurance could vary the premium based on actual site inspection:
> I pay the same premium as a neighbour for a same house yet the fact I have a fire pump, extra tanks, potentially things like a roof sprinkler, generator, own water supply etc etc does not matter ..no one asks even the type of vegetation around, the slope etc etc




That would be too hard wouldn't it ?


----------



## qldfrog (17 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> That would be too hard wouldn't it ?



Some basic check would be easily doable you do not pay one insurance premium for all cars..
There is not even a check on the quality of the building insured.that would be easy to do
And remember we are talking premium in the $4k a year range..this could justify a one hour on site inspection per customer
Anyway..not directly relevant to the fires
Hope the rain is helping people there


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## SirRumpole (17 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Some basic check would be easily doable you do not pay one insurance premium for all cars..
> There is not even a check on the quality of the building insured.that would be easy to do
> And remember we are talking premium in the $4k a year range..this could justify a one hour on site inspection per customer
> Anyway..not directly relevant to the fires
> Hope the rain is helping people there




Insurance premiums for cars are usually based on the number of claims in your area, although you may get a discount if you have a car alarm installed and keep the car in a garage, but you are still paying for other people's accidents.


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## qldfrog (18 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Insurance premiums for cars are usually based on the number of claims in your area, although you may get a discount if you have a car alarm installed and keep the car in a garage, but you are still paying for other people's accidents.



True but even in a cleared area, if the gutters are overflowing with leaves, well..it will make a big difference
I am sure we can agree that a more individualised pricing might make sense, and might actually be mandated if globalised pricing goes over the roof...
Hopefully, government will not interfere and market will be able to fix that: look at pensioner pricing, youi ads about car insurance for people NOT driving to work etc..
Anyway, there is much to be done..sweet rain is breaking my sat internet and overflowing the gutters at last...


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 January 2020)

macca said:


> Over the past 20 years in particular, the green influence in the local councils has all but stopped any hazard reduction, now we reap what we sow.



There are so many claims and counterclaims on this "greenies and hazard reduction" issue that getting to the bottom of it would of itself justify the cost of a royal commission.

I don't really know the truth and I suspect most don't either. The local council has some silly rules, protecting only those trees which are a hazard but not protecting pretty much anything else, but then it turns out that's a state government policy and the council is just the administrator and enforcer. Blaming them is akin to blaming some junior Police Officer for pulling you over for speeding - they don't make the law, they're just doing their job of enforcing it.

The issue needs to be properly sorted out.


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## IFocus (18 January 2020)

There are 1,480 Councillors in NSW.

58 are Greens (4%).

There are 42 members of the NSW Legislative Council.

3 are Greens (7%).

There are 93 members of the NSW Legislative Assembly.

3 are Greens (3%).

The issue with reduction burns is budgets and Liberal / Nats reducing them

The issue with policy is clearly not Greens as the have always supported reduction burning.


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## Knobby22 (18 January 2020)

Picking scapegoats is a proven political tactic.


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## IFocus (18 January 2020)

What happens when it doesn't work?

"We had a bushfire two months ago that burned most of our property. It didn't matter. It burned again."

"There was no fuel on the ground, it was already burned."

https://www.armidaleexpress.com.au/story/6494023/opinion-we-did-burnoffs...


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## Belli (18 January 2020)

I prefer to my obtain information from my contacts involved in climate research, ecology, biology and a multitude of disciplines (including surprisingly economics - check out Blackrock and sustainability) rather than hearsay, the media or individual biases.


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## IFocus (18 January 2020)

Read what the government was told in 2009.

https://www.environment.gov.au/clim...cNZ1WRU8ZsjvAbiaaeaeB401PPmMmoMkUXPmUnwx5M2F4


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## IFocus (18 January 2020)

An RC is required to look at the big picture and offer solutions to the current situation which is unprecedented both in scale, size, conditions and intensity I don't think there is a silver bullet, in fact I am not even sure there is a solution.


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## Belli (18 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> Read what the government was told in 2009.
> 
> https://www.environment.gov.au/clim...cNZ1WRU8ZsjvAbiaaeaeB401PPmMmoMkUXPmUnwx5M2F4




If interested check out:

"The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change" by Gilbert Plass published by John Hopkins University in *1955 *or

the *1896 *publication "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground" by Prof Svante Arrhenius in the Journal of Science.

The developing knowledge has been around for quite a while.


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## IFocus (18 January 2020)

Belli said:


> If interested check out:
> 
> "The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change" by Gilbert Plass published by John Hopkins University in *1955 *or
> 
> ...




Thanks Belli will do.


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## kahuna1 (18 January 2020)

Belli said:


> *1896 *publication "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground" by Prof Svante Arrhenius in the Journal of Science.
> 
> The developing knowledge has been around for quite a while.




The effect .... CO2 and Humidity .... was from a woman in 1856 .... until recently claimed by some man in 1859.

Meanwhile the USA EPA is run by a lawyer for a coal baron who then became a lobbyist. HE denies any and all science surrounding climate issues.

Worse is Australia and our treasurer in 2017 ... took a lump of coal into parliament .... he sadly is our PM.

Denial sites here have gone nuts in recent days Michael West wrote a great article about it.

My favorite was Michael Kroger Liberal party ex president ... on Murdoch Sky news and quoted in numerous papers, they sadly forgot Kroger was a director at Australia leading climate denial site for many years. He was their expert ? Impartial one ? Far out.

Science is not a debate or able to be denied. I think maybe an industrial microwave set up at his house and seeing if any effects are caused would be appropriate. Or microwaves in the lift at his office which give 60 seconds of healthy non scientific well-being  are installed. More dangerous is Greiner who mouth's concern but now leader of the Liberal Party in Australia whilst fully supporting inaction.

Turnball form his faults, was trying to change things, Rupert visits and 60 days latter a fathead was installed.

Maybe a free personal air purifier which actually is a microwave unit would be apt. Sadly it was those new Apple ear pods as Christmas 2019 gifts for all liberal climate deniers which seem to be working overtime into 2020. Notice the steam coming out of their orifices as time goes on ......


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## Belli (18 January 2020)

I know it is almost a duty to correct misinformation - of which there is plenty - but I don't attempt to now.  It doesn't matter what some may think.  It won't change the data or what that data indicates.  I am a bit surprised (saddened?) that a number consider researchers of all disciplines are effectively dumb.  I forget now who said it but many years ago the process was stated in very simple principles on what is involved:

An intelligent guess;
Compute the consequences of that guess
Test against nature by way of experiment
And if the computed consequences fails the test the guess is wrong.  Period.

And further grist to the mill have a search for the then PM of England's speech to the UN in I think in the late 1980's.  And then look at her academic qualifications.  If it doesn't get some thinking, it should.


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## Belli (18 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> Thanks Belli will do.




They are bloody hard to find and I've lost the links I'm sorry to say.  I had read hard copies some time ago.


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## macca (18 January 2020)

I can't speak for every council but in my local council the staff are very green orientated, not sure where I posted it before but the owners of the 20 acres next to me have been refused permission to hazard reduce repeatedly over the past 10 years.

It is a known fact that it has not been burned for 35 years, can't burn off in winter, can't cut fire paths for access, can't clear scrub under trees.................. gee I wonder why it burnt so well.

Listening on the country talk back radio there are many many people in the same situation.

The NSW laws, lack of serious intent to winter burn and the actions of councils are 100% the cause of the fuel build up, drought just dried it out ready to burn.


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## IFocus (18 January 2020)

This one Kahuna?

*Compromised: Genie Energy and the Murdoch media’s climate denial*


*https://www.michaelwest.com.au/compromised-genie-energy-and-the-murdoch-medias-climate-denial/*


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## Belli (18 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> *Compromised: Genie Energy and the Murdoch media’s climate denial*




I'd take more notice of the barber I go to than M.  At least he has an honours degree in biology.

Complete side track.  I posted the quote below from another thread.



Belli said:


> Goodness me did in have an adverse impact as it would on any PV system.  On a "normal" Summer's day one PV system would produce about 40 kWh.  On that day the production was 7kWh.




It reminded me of a chat I was having with a friend about the present fire situation and issues surrounding them.  Conversations go in strange ways and he bought up events of 1780's eruption of Laki which Benjamin Franklin wrote about and the Tamboora eruption of the 1800's.  Said with the effect of these in mind he was mulling over possibilities if the high levels of smoke and highly filtered sunlight could have interesting impacts on plant growth even in the short term.  Some people never cease thinking.

Edit: On a practical note if these fires don't encourage people to back up everything they have - share transactions, scan of drivers license, medicare cards, insurance policies, photos, Wills, the entire lot - on to a portable hard drive and cloud storage, then I don't know what will.


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## Smurf1976 (18 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> There are 1,480 Councillors in NSW.
> 
> 58 are Greens (4%).




Are local council members in NSW not mostly independents unaligned to any party?

Regardless of that though, I think there’s an interchangeable use of the term “Greens” occurring to mean anyone with a somewhat “green” view not necessarily associated with the party.

It’s comparable to calling anyone concerned with workers “Labor” or calling all farmers including those who are simply employees “Nationals”.

Most of those labelled as “Greens” aren’t in the party indeed they’re not even in politics.


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## IFocus (19 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Are local council members in NSW not mostly independents unaligned to any party?
> 
> Regardless of that though, I think there’s an interchangeable use of the term “Greens” occurring to mean anyone with a somewhat “green” view not necessarily associated with the party.
> 
> ...




To be honest I would think there would be a lot of conservationists on councils not aligned with any political party at all but most of them would be OK with fuel reduction as long as it did not greatly  impact species.

Barnaby Joyce got called out not that long ago blaming greenies for all the issues which was total BS.


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## Smurf1976 (19 January 2020)

IFocus said:


> To be honest I would think there would be a lot of conservationists on councils not aligned with any political party at all but most of them would be OK with fuel reduction as long as it did not greatly  impact species.




Hazard reduction in the form of burning doesn't seem to be a major problem so far as I can tell. Agreed there.

What I do see an issue with though is the detail of removing trees close to housing. I live not next to but reasonably near the bush and suffice to say the council's rules are that I can remove any tree within 10 meters of the house except any Willow Myrtle or Eucalyptus.

Well that's a bit like saying I can drive anything on the road except a car or ute or that I can buy anything from McDonald's so long as it's not a burger or fries. Of all trees that are likely to be a problem if they're within 10m of a house and are more than 2m trunk circumference as per the rules, Eucalyptus would top the list easily.

I don't have an issue with councils protecting trees as such or even protecting gum trees. What I'm not at all convinced about is the council's idea that fire can't jump a ~10m wide road between natural bush and houses with great big trees out the front. If that's true then why on earth hasn't someone just built a road through the bush to stop the fires in NSW and Vic? Probably because it doesn't work.....

So my point basically is yes it's not unreasonable to protect trees, and to be clear I don't wish to go and cut them all down, but that the detail of rules needs to be revised and that distances etc should be based on proper science not just randomly picked numbers. To the extent that I'd criticise any "greenies" that would be it - that there are rules in place, perhaps well intentioned, but they're having the effect of imposing unnecessary cost (council fees) and hurdles (time taken to get approval) in the way of removing obvious hazards right next to houses. The process ought to be based on science and realistically that's going to mean pushing the distances further away from buildings.


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## kahuna1 (19 January 2020)

Hmmm ...


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## basilio (19 January 2020)

This has always been on the table. 

*Bushfire-destroyed homes should not be rebuilt in riskiest areas, experts say*
Planning experts call for state governments to buy back land from people in most bushfire-prone areas

Experts say any buyback scheme should be voluntary, but bushfire rebuilding ‘requirements should be very stringent’. Photograph: James Gourley/AAP

State governments have been warned against promising to recreate some communities destroyed by the bushfire crisis and urged to consider preventing homeowners from rebuilding their homes in the riskiest areas.

Three planning experts, including two who appeared on a planning panel convened for the Victorian Black Saturday royal commission, told Guardian Australia to avoid repeating what they considered the mistakes of past bushfire recoveries.

They called for state governments to buy back land from people in the most bushfire-prone areas, as occurred after Black Saturday and raised particular concerns about rebuilding in isolated homes and towns, particularly those where there was “one road in and one road out” and those in heavily timbered environments.
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-not-be-rebuilt-in-riskiest-areas-experts-say


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## qldfrog (19 January 2020)

https://amp-theage-com-au.cdn.amppr...-in-fuel-reduction-burns-20150312-14259h.html
Look at the date
2015...
But the Age so must be fake news


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## qldfrog (19 January 2020)

This should be the headlines everywhere..but eh does not fit the agenda.


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## kahuna1 (19 January 2020)

Every study ...
Every single scientific study ... all 57 peer reviewed ones !! 

_In light of the Australian fires, scientists from the University of East Anglia (UEA), Met Office Hadley Centre, University of Exeter and Imperial College London have conducted a Rapid Response Review of 57 peer-reviewed papers published since the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report in 2013.

*All the studies show links between climate change and increased frequency or severity of fire weather* -- periods with a high fire risk due to a combination of high temperatures, low humidity, low rainfall and often high winds -- though some note anomalies in a few regions._

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200114074046.htm


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## basilio (20 January 2020)

The ScoMo government has announced  government support for small business owners affected by the fires. They certainly haven't spared the  horses here.

_Businesses damaged by bushfires will be eligible for *additional grants *of up to $50,000 in the latest pledge from the Morrison government’s $2bn disaster relief package.

Businesses will also be able to access *concessional loans of up to $500,000 *if they have suffered significant loss of revenue or asset loss, opening the door to those indirectly affected by a business downturn rather than fire damage. 
_
...._*The $50,000 tax-free grants* will be provided under the disaster recovery funding arrangements, in addition to payments by state governments.

Loans of up to $500,000 will be available for up to 10 years to restore or replace damaged assets and for working capital. Businesses will have a repayment holiday of two years interest free, with subsequent rates set at half the 10-year bond rate (currently 0.6%)
_
I wonder what will happen to the hundreds/thousands  of people who lost humble homes  and all their possessions in the fires? I suppose if someone can come up with an ABN , business card and bank statement  for a dinky small business they can access the $50k grant and $500k   0.3% loan. 

The rest ? I just  wonder what they will see of the $100m +  in public donations or $2B in Gov grants. 
 Some basic maths. If we suggest 1000 homes were lost that were uninsured or uninsurable then 
350k each  would cost $350m.  

$350k would be roughly the cost of a new modest dwelling in a nearly country town. If  the government  has put  $2B on the table for bushfire disaster relief  the this sort of action should be part of the deal. 

In fact it doesn't even have to a grant. Could be part grant part loan as per small business offering. Call it relocation support. This would certainly make it easier to get people out of "too dangerous" bush settings into more protectable   communities. (If there is such a thing.)

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ther-sap-confidence-in-the-australian-economy


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## kahuna1 (20 January 2020)

Re the Bush fires ...

*What's really driving the bush fires down under?*

Well done highly impartial scientific view by non political UK guy with great credentials who links every single source. ...

worth the 14 mins




Not about to debate science of the experts  ....

Watch ... possibly it may change your views, opinions or even reality. Unlikely but in the Utube there are around 50 links to source data and studies.


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## kahuna1 (20 January 2020)

This one .... On bush-fires but also total BS via media, social media, talking heads and non experts ...

*The cause of Australia’s bushfires – what the SCIENCE says*

Longer ... but amusing ... well researched, links given to source data .... and well if your going to believe anything INFORMATION not opinion is essential.

Not another bloody royal commission.

Its 36 minutes but ... well you may learn something without too much effort.




Very very well done, both of the above ...

Watch ... possibly it may change your views, opinions or even reality. Unlikely but in the Utube there are around 50 links to source data and studies.


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## qldfrog (1 February 2020)

And in Qld not Victoria, but to highlight the paperwork and bureaucracy nightmare of RFS
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-01/firefighters-queensland-volunteers-need-blue-cards/11917716
So your donations to RFS will help pay the $90 fees for blue card application
I was planning to rejoin the RFB after moving, whenever i  sell  my current place, but i would not after this, i know already of the medical checks and the 12 weekends of H&S training, that on top?
And yes i had one blue card in the past, to hold a kiosk at a baby expo..do not ask......
But this is Kafka, and society pays the price


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## qldfrog (13 April 2020)

So while we need a blue card to volunteer to fight the next bushfires, at least maybe under the PC brigade, we might see some progress
Interesting article
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020...ting-fire-with-fire/11866478?nw=0&pfmredir=sm
Cultural fire  if it helps to do the right thing, why not
With the virus, we will lose one more year of controlled burns, so ready to flame again next year if a bit dry
The article mentions the concept of sick country and share this view.when you see dead wattles standing, infestation of lantanas or blackberries further south, too much blady grass and less kangaroo grass, you know fire is needed, i i can read that in the landscape


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