# 95% ASX100 success rate



## RobertoHood (9 August 2015)

Hello,

Over the past 4 years i have been working to develop a system that can predict weekly moves tracking all companies listed in the ASX100.

I have refined this now to the point where i get on average an accuracy rate of 95.65%

With percentage gains averaging 1.62% per company per week.

Tonight i will list the companies which have triggered BUY in the system based on last weeks date.

The only rule of the system is to buy on the open of monday morning, and either sell at the close of friday , or sell when your stock gain reaches a level where you want to take profits.


Of the 23 buy signals i got last week, only 1 was not successful. Resulting in a -2.31% loss if you held until the close on friday, but profits were there during the midweek.

So basically the system can predict stocks which are going to end the week in a positive. But not by how much , so you will still need to bring you own risk management to the table.

Kind regards
Robertohood


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## tech/a (9 August 2015)

Sounds interesting.

Over what period did you test the method to determine a 95% success rate?
What program did you use to determine the result.
Is the method week in week out trading?
A 1:20 loss rate is remarkable.
Following with interest.

As you say risk management is the responsibility of the users
But are you saying all stock selected will remain in profit until Friday or
Some will go into drawdown but finish positive by Friday
Or some will start positive and if exited before they turn negative within that week 
Will be in the group of winners.if not results may be less than 95%,

Is success of 95% reliant on excellent money management?


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## CanOz (9 August 2015)

Sounds like "here we ago again" tech.....


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## RobertoHood (9 August 2015)

tech/a said:


> Sounds interesting.
> 
> Over what period did you test the method to determine a 95% success rate?
> What program did you use to determine the result.
> ...




Hi tech,

I used excel and some simple formulas, averages, standard deviation etc using the last 3 months to date of all 100 components of the ASX100.

I say risk management is up to the user because i have found most will end the week in a positive (when i say most only 1 from 23 didnt last week). Some will raise as much as +3 or +4% during the week , but will close up +.69% . 

Still a profit, but i know which one i would prefer!


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## Porper (9 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Tonight i will list the companies which have triggered BUY in the system based on last weeks date.




This will be very interesting.  Waiting with bated breath.


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## RobertoHood (9 August 2015)

Porper said:


> This will be very interesting.  Waiting with bated breath.




Thanks Porper, glad your interested


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## RobertoHood (9 August 2015)

CanOz said:


> Sounds like "here we ago again" tech.....




Time will tell


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## tech/a (9 August 2015)

Unfortunately 3 mths testing in excel is hardly exhaustive.
What people need to understand is standard oscillators have been around for 30 
Yrs. In that time and in particular the last 15 yrs every oscillator combination known to
Man has been tested. From what I have found there is no statistical edge displayed
In standard oscillator type systems over a long term.

However I'm still very interested in anything posted by anyone who has the
Guts to post it up,


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## RobertoHood (9 August 2015)

tech/a said:


> Unfortunately 3 mths testing in excel is hardly exhaustive.
> What people need to understand is standard oscillators have been around for 30
> Yrs. In that time and in particular the last 15 yrs every oscillator combination known to
> Man has been tested. From what I have found there is no statistical edge displayed
> ...




Hey tech,

My system uses no oscillators at all, i realised a long time ago that for me personally they just take attention away from the real information, my system doesnt even require a single chart.

3 months is not a lot of back testing data, but on a week by week basis , spread across all sectors so far a 95% success rate has emerged, and i guess the theory of "edges work until they dont" might ring true here.


But time will tell, and by next friday the numbers will soon let me know .


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## ThingyMajiggy (9 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Hey tech,
> 
> My system uses no oscillators at all, i realised a long time ago that for me personally they just take attention away from the real information, my system doesnt even require a single chart.
> 
> ...




Also very interested, good that you are posting it too, even if it doesn't work out. 

What made you open an account and post this?


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## skyQuake (9 August 2015)

3 months on a week by week basis is 12 periods... 12!

I can flip 12 heads in a row. Across sectors doesn't mean too much as there is a lot of correlation. eg a breakdown system that spits out oil stock shorts day after day for the past 6 months.

Why not push your system back a few years and see how it fares?
Good luck


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## So_Cynical (9 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Over the past 4 years i have been working to develop a system that can predict weekly moves tracking all companies listed in the ASX100.
> 
> Tonight i will list the companies which have triggered BUY in the system based on last weeks date.




Congratulations, eagerly awaiting your predictions for next week....then prepare to have your system picked to bits.


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## skc (9 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Hello,
> 
> Over the past 4 years i have been working to develop a system that can predict weekly moves tracking all *companies listed in the ASX100.*
> 
> ...




How do you define the take profit level? Does taking profit during the week enhances or decreases performance?

How many of last weeks 23 buy signal involved taking profit vs holding til the end of the week?

I am asking because it makes a huge difference between whether this is a set-and-forget system vs something that requires close monitoring during the week.


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## RobertoHood (9 August 2015)

Hey guys as promised, the listed are current BUY signals for next weeks open (10/08/15)

My system only scans the ASX100, and the BUY signal only predicts stocks which will end the week positive... not by %gain.

Purchases are to be made at the open monday morning and sold prior to close Friday (14/08/15) 

CTX
LLC
NAB
OSH
REC
S32


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## DoctorDoom (9 August 2015)

Two points I can add to this thread:

1)  A 95% winning average does not necessarily constitute a positive expectancy system - I can easily design a system with a 95% win rate yet it's a net loser (negative expectancy), it only takes one really large loser.

2) Using 3 months of data, to validate a system is very insufficient - enormous risk of curve fitting (test the system on a larger out of sample data set to confirm validity).


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## tech/a (10 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Hey guys as promised, the listed are current BUY signals for next weeks open (10/08/15)
> 
> My system only scans the ASX100, and the BUY signal only predicts stocks which will end the week positive... not by %gain.
> 
> ...




So it's up to the trader to initiate a sell.

Before Friday.
Basically your saying that 95% of these will be in profit at sometime
Over the next week---and if sold when in profit and before Friday
Will have a 95% hit rate ---- in this case no losers

This is open to massive variants of interpretation.
The perfect method of trading these stocks
WILL NOT BE KNOWN until Fridays close.
It cannot be known before hand.


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## Porper (10 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Hey guys as promised, the listed are current BUY signals for next weeks open (10/08/15)
> 
> My system only scans the ASX100, and the BUY signal only predicts stocks which will end the week positive...
> LLC
> ...




The only way this can be tested is to use the open on Monday and close on Friday...as you state above. You can't just say that each stock will be in profit "at some stage during the week". Sorry to be sceptical but sounds like somebody in the "beginners" cycle. Also, the system needs to be tested going back years...not weeks.


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## prawn_86 (10 August 2015)

Porper said:


> The only way this can be tested is to use the open on Monday and close on Friday...as you state above. You can't just say that each stock will be in profit "at some stage during the week". Sorry to be sceptical but sounds like somebody in the "beginners" cycle. Also, the system needs to be tested going back years...not weeks.




I read what he has said as that 95% will close on Friday in positive territory. So it may drop Monday morning, spend all week negative but then rally back to a profit by the end of the week. Or it might go gangbusters and then pull back but still close at a profit.

Echoing others sentiments that 12 weeks is nowhere near enough and if it was this simple then the risk management side of things with a 95% success rate should be relatively easy...


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## ThingyMajiggy (10 August 2015)

Sharemarket game is on, so I've entered the orders for those stocks and we can see how it goes.


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## So_Cynical (10 August 2015)

DoctorDoom said:


> A 95% winning average does not necessarily constitute a positive expectancy system - I can easily design a system with a 95% win rate yet it's a net loser (negative expectancy), it only takes one really large loser.




A 95% winning average should deliver positive expectancy, i would reckon one would have to be pretty stupid to lose money with a 95% winning average, especially if the time frame was less than 3 months.


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## cynic (10 August 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> A 95% winning average should deliver positive expectancy, i would reckon one would have to be pretty stupid to lose money with a 95% winning average, especially if the time frame was less than 3 months.




Any strike rate below 100%, can easily deliver negative expectancy!

Some of my past failures had greater than 97% strike rates!


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## tech/a (10 August 2015)

cynic said:


> Any strike rate below 100%, can easily deliver negative expectancy!
> 
> Some of my past failures had greater than 97% strike rates!




Then I take my hat off to you.
That is a remarkable feat!


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## cynic (10 August 2015)

tech/a said:


> Then I take my hat off to you.
> That is a remarkable feat!



It's a lot easier to achieve than it sounds!

My more successful strategies had a significantly lower strike rate, which is hardly surprising to those whom understand its irrelevance to positive expectancy.


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## tech/a (10 August 2015)

Still 3% losses to out weigh 97% wins
Good job!!!


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## cynic (10 August 2015)

tech/a said:


> Still 3% losses to out weigh 97% wins
> Good job!!!




Cut your winners fast and let the losers run! It's so easy, even an expert could do it!


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## skyQuake (10 August 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> A 95% winning average should deliver positive expectancy, i would reckon one would have to be pretty stupid to lose money with a 95% winning average, especially if the time frame was less than 3 months.




I think it was implied the system would be martingale


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## RobertoHood (10 August 2015)

skyQuake said:


> 3 months on a week by week basis is 12 periods... 12!
> 
> I can flip 12 heads in a row. Across sectors doesn't mean too much as there is a lot of correlation. eg a breakdown system that spits out oil stock shorts day after day for the past 6 months.
> 
> ...




The funny thing about back testing is if you backtest too far , it smoothes out any edges that may have appeared and then gone, they get lost in the "noise" and are ignored due to being covered up by the overwhelming general randomness over extended periods.

As for your coin flip example, its more like like you flipping a coin 12 times with 100 different coins (1200 coin flips in total), and me being able to say with 95% certainty,  which ones will be tails some of the time.

Sure you could possibly flip coins 12 times in a row , it is possible but unlikely , whats likely though , is the longer you flip a coin the more the head:tails ratio draws closer and closer to .5


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## skyQuake (10 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> The funny thing about back testing is if you backtest too far , it smoothes out any edges that may have appeared and then gone, they get lost in the "noise" and are ignored due to being covered up by the overwhelming general randomness over extended periods.




Then that's probably not an edge. Ideally you'd have something that you can backtest and curve fit to your heart's content, THEN backtest out of sample.



> As for your coin flip example, its more like like you flipping a coin 12 times with 100 different coins (1200 coin flips in total), and me being able to say with 95% certainty,  which ones will be tails some of the time.



Key difference here is that in the coin flip example there is no correlation between the different coins. 
Whereas say CBA/NAB/ANZ/WBC 'flip' very similar.


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## minwa (10 August 2015)

This will be a good thread if you provide timely EXIT signals, to validate the 95%. 

Anyway the picks are lagging the index for Monday, with average gain of .44% while the XAO100 gained .60%. 

2 ended down for the day while 4 up - at what point is the unrealised loss enough to be taken and dumped into the 5% losers ? And how would it affect the success rate should it later recover back into profit ?


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## RobertoHood (11 August 2015)

minwa said:


> This will be a good thread if you provide timely EXIT signals, to validate the 95%.
> 
> Anyway the picks are lagging the index for Monday, with average gain of .44% while the XAO100 gained .60%.
> 
> 2 ended down for the day while 4 up - at what point is the unrealised loss enough to be taken and dumped into the 5% losers ? And how would it affect the success rate should it later recover back into profit ?




Minwa my friend , thank you for your reply ... but you are slightly incorrect.

At the moment only one stock is down , which is S32 , CTX , is up on my books it opened @ $32.73 and closed at $32.81 ending the day with a .244% gain. The calculation i believe you re working from is Fridays close compared to Mondays close which is a drop from $33.14 to $32.81. (-1.00%) , My systems works from BUYING Mondays open and selling at Fridays close.

So here is actually how the stock picks sit so far if you bought the OPEN yesterday, which can easily be achieved with any decent broker (unless with commsec where you can not put in a market order from Monday mornings)

CTY: +.244%
LLC: +2.75$
NAB: +1.277%
OSH: +1.464%
REC: +.429%
S32: -.885%


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## RobertoHood (11 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Minwa my friend , thank you for your reply ... but you are slightly incorrect.
> 
> At the moment only one stock is down , which is S32 , CTX , is up on my books it opened @ $32.73 and closed at $32.81 ending the day with a .244% gain. The calculation i believe you re working from is Fridays close compared to Mondays close which is a drop from $33.14 to $32.81. (-1.00%) , My systems works from BUYING Mondays open and selling at Fridays close.
> 
> ...





So we are actually ahead of the market. All this is irrelevant though , the close on friday will tell the true story.. although some decent profits could be taken from the table if one wished.

To quote Nathaniel Rothschild  - " Treat the stock market like a cold shower, quick in quick out"


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## systematic (11 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> To quote Nathaniel Rothschild  - " Treat the stock market like a cold shower, quick in quick out"




I'm glad he said shower!

RobertoHood, could you clarify the exit you are using...as what you said above could be read two ways:

"Purchases are to be made at the open monday morning and *sold prior to close* Friday (14/08/15) "

I read that for its more obvious (to me) meaning:  _"just before the close on Friday afternoon_ but now I realise that this could also be covered with, "_*anytime*_ before Friday's close.

Which is it, please?

And...best of luck with your experiment.


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## RobertoHood (11 August 2015)

systematic said:


> I'm glad he said shower!
> 
> RobertoHood, could you clarify the exit you are using...as what you said above could be read two ways:
> 
> ...




Ok Let me clarify.

The system predicts which stocks will be up for the week from Mondays OPEN to Fridays CLOSE. 

At this stage , 95% percent of the stocks which i get BUY signals for are UP on the close of FRIDAY from MONDAYS OPEN.

Where the buyer who purchases the stocks decides to lock in profits during the week is up to them.

But the system has a 95 percent accuracy rate so far of selecting stocks which will end the week up from mondays open.

Here is an example of where someone may lock in profits.

Lets say you purchase WOW shares on the open of MONDAY because the system says BUY (meaning there is a 95% chance it will close the week up from the open),  now lets say WOW  is up 3.2% by wednesday , the buyer might have a rule where they wish to take 3% profits (or whatever % they may have) and decide to sell to lock in profits.

Now WOW could continue to rise and close the week up 5% or it could fall and close the week up .01% , or it could be one of the 5% stocks that close below the open on Monday. Its all at the buyers descretion and their personal risk management  rules.

Hope this clears up your question ☺


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## systematic (11 August 2015)

tech/a said:


> Still 3% losses to out weigh 97% wins
> Good job!!!




tech/a, it's not that difficult to imagine.

Take someone with a forex system.  They (think) they've designed a good, "take quick profits" system.  
Average 20 trades a day, 5 days a week - all positions closed for the weekend.  Cost is 0.5 pip round trip.
They are aiming for a quick profit of 3 pips per trade.

They put in a "catastrophe" stop loss of 100 pips...to guard against being caught in a true market shift away from their position.

Initial testing showed promise.  3 months (or whatever) of testing showed that this 100 pip stop loss was hardly or never hit.  End of week (closing out positions) is where we get the 3 losses from, and initial testing showed an average losing position of 50 pips.  Great.  The budding system trader is already dreaming of how they are going to be able to live on a steady 91 pip per week profit.*  And even if the system makes only half of that...fine!

*97 trades make the 3 pip profit target = 291 pips.  0.5 pip round trip = 50 pips in costs for the week.  Now we have 241 pips.  The 3 losses that we close out on Friday average 50 pips per loss in testing.  We have our 91 pip profit.  At $25 per pip and trading 10 months per year...a 6 figure income awaits. 



Now...is it difficult to imagine that our enthusiastic system trader finds out in the real world, over 12 months of trading...that the average loss of those 3 losing trades was in fact 85 pips, not 50 pips?  Perhaps the 100 pip loss was hit just a few more times than was expected?  Still a 97% strike rate.  But those 3 losers only have to have an average loss of 80.3 pips to cause the system to lose money.  Our now not-so-enthusiastic system trader loses $15,400 for the year.  _Side note:  The trader still has an edge, in a cost free trading world.  So their trading idea in and of itself is not a terrible idea._


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## RobertoHood (11 August 2015)

tech/a said:


> Still 3% losses to out weigh 97% wins
> Good job!!!




This could happen but you have to be Homer Simpson e.g some who risks 100% of their capital on each and every trade with no stoploss. "Risk of ruin" comes to mind


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## systematic (11 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Ok Let me clarify.
> 
> The system predicts which stocks will be up for the week from Mondays OPEN to Fridays CLOSE...
> 
> ...Hope this clears up your question ☺




Totally.  Thank you, it was the more obvious meaning.  I thought it best to get this 100% clear to everyone now, rather than ambiguity ruin things later on.  

Also, from your original post - there is a profit of 1.62% on the account based on, "buy Monday's open, sell Friday's close."
I take that from your comment, "With percentage gains averaging 1.62% per company per week"

So there is a positive edge from trading this on a simple Monday open to Friday close basis (assuming costs including slippage are contained within that).

I think some have slightly accused you of an ambiguity that is not there...just needed a bit more clarifying.  You were simply saying that someone else might be able to do better than waiting until Friday close.


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## systematic (11 August 2015)

I was thinking about ideas for anyone who wanted to track the selections, and realised I needed to ask this first.

RobertoHood, without giving away your system...would you describe it as being based on trend/strength/continuation etc?  Or would you describe it as mean reversion/short-term weakness etc?

Reason I ask is that it might help those who want to track it with different sell criteria.

For example, if it's based on current weakness, someone might like to try the, "first profitable close" exit (nicked from Rob Hanna, Cesar Alvarez, Nick Radge).

But if it's trend following / continuation in nature, that is not going to be a good exit to use!  Here, you'd obviously want to do something to cut the losers and let the profits run. 

I'm assuming, based on the strike rate, that you would describe it as weakness or reversion based.


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## rnr (11 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Of the *23* buy signals i got last week, only 1 was not successful. Resulting in a -2.31% loss if you held until the close on friday, but profits were there during the midweek.
> Robertohood






RobertoHood said:


> Ok Let me clarify.
> 
> The system predicts which stocks will be up for the week from Mondays OPEN to Fridays CLOSE.
> 
> Hope this clears up your question ☺




Below are the summarised results for the ASX100 for the week ending 7th August (last week):-

12 made gains from 0.31% to 6.82%
  2 made no change
86 made losses from 0.14% to 18.96%

How do you arrive at the conclusion that 22 were profitable for that week?


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## RobertoHood (11 August 2015)

tech/a said:


> Still 3% losses to out weigh 97% wins
> Good job!!!






rnr said:


> Below are the summarised results for the ASX100 for the week ending 7th August (last week):-
> 
> 12 made gains from 0.31% to 6.82%
> 2 made no change
> ...





Sorry , let me reprhase of the 23 buy signals i got over the 12 WEEK PERIOD i tested , 22/23 closed the Friday positive.

My apologies


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## Wysiwyg (11 August 2015)

rnr said:


> Below are the summarised results for the ASX100 for the week ending 7th August (last week):-
> 
> 12 made gains from 0.31% to 6.82%
> 2 made no change
> ...



Thanks. I'm sure I have not missed any system like this. Brokerage, time limit and high risk for small gains = failed consistency.


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## RobertoHood (11 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Hello,
> 
> Over the past 4 years i have been working to develop a system that can predict weekly moves tracking all companies listed in the ASX100.
> 
> ...




Sorry everyone , this was meant to state 23 BUY signals over the 12 week period not over the week.

Thank you rnr for picking this up


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## rnr (11 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Sorry everyone , this was meant to state 23 BUY signals over the 12 week period not over the week.
> 
> Thank you rnr for picking this up




OK, I see where your coming from and confirmed by the 95.65% (22/23).


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## tech/a (11 August 2015)

> Of the 23 buy signals i *got last week*, only 1 was not successful.




Would that not have to read.

"Of the 23 buy signals over the last 12 weeks----etc etc''


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## RobertoHood (11 August 2015)

tech/a said:


> Would that not have to read.
> 
> "Of the 23 buy signals over the last 12 weeks----etc etc''




Yes that is correct tech, my sincere apologies


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## tech/a (11 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Yes that is correct tech, my sincere apologies 




All good.

So each *WEEK* the companies are re set?

Could be the same or different companies but the buy sell timeframe is a week.
Of 27 different signals over 12 weeks 95% on a week to week basis finished higher.

Just making sure I understand the result.


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## RobertoHood (11 August 2015)

tech/a said:


> All good.
> 
> So each *WEEK* the companies are re set?
> 
> ...




Yes, if you do not sell at close of Friday or before, you are in unmeasured waters my friend.

Scan can be performed for the next week week once Fridays data is available. I myself perform the scan Sunday night.

And yes ,of the 23 BUY signals over the 12 week period , 22 finished higher.


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## sinner (11 August 2015)

systematic said:


> I was thinking about ideas for anyone who wanted to track the selections, and realised I needed to ask this first.
> 
> RobertoHood, without giving away your system...would you describe it as being based on trend/strength/continuation etc?  Or would you describe it as mean reversion/short-term weakness etc?
> 
> Reason I ask is that it might help those who want to track it with different sell criteria.




I'll bet dollars to donuts that it's a machine learning system and that therefore this question is unanswerable.

Basically the algorithm will pick up on whichever edge has shown the most likelihood for a positive weekly return over the duration of the training data, i.e. basically the training data will pick up on whichever direction weekly autocorrelation is pointing and therefore sometimes predict weakness leads to strength while other times predicting that strength will lead to strength.

Roberto, if my bet is correct, just so you know, there are some ML algos out there that let you do regression mode rather than classification (i.e. both sign and magnitude rather than just sign). I like Support Vector Machines, my favourite implementation is SVM-Light: http://svmlight.joachims.org/

Another free note for you: I think you'll find the success of this system will be hugely influenced by the volatility regime the market is currently in (one of: high and declining, high and increasing, low and declining, low and increasing). My guess is you'll need to completely shut this beast off during at least 2 of those volatility regimes to avoid it crashing or flatlining your equity curve.

EDIT: To all the naysayers: so long as Roberto keeps moving his 3 month window of training data he can very effectively capture whatever the current autocorrelation trend is - as long as the trends in autocorrelation display momentum behaviours, which they do tend to.


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## RobertoHood (11 August 2015)

systematic said:


> I was thinking about ideas for anyone who wanted to track the selections, and realised I needed to ask this first.
> 
> RobertoHood, without giving away your system...would you describe it as being based on trend/strength/continuation etc?  Or would you describe it as mean reversion/short-term weakness etc?
> 
> ...




Hey system,

I am not avoiding this question , but i really dont know how to answer it without giving away what im doing.

But let me tell you a few things i can say

- it does not require a chart ( no trend following, no reversion trading)
- therefore oscillators and any other form of indicator are not used

- i do use excel
- i do not use any fundamentals what so ever

- its not a "machine" well i guess my laptops a machine

- the calculations i do , my 11 year old brother could do (im bad at math)

- all that matter is that i have the information from the previous week to copy and paste into my spread sheet which is embedded with formulas , which have shown patterns for stocks which tend go up the following week.

Thats it, and thats all it is

Hope that helps


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## RobertoHood (11 August 2015)

sinner said:


> I'll bet dollars to donuts that it's a machine learning system and that therefore this question is unanswerable.
> 
> Basically the algorithm will pick up on whichever edge has shown the most likelihood for a positive weekly return over the duration of the training data, i.e. basically the training data will pick up on whichever direction weekly autocorrelation is pointing and therefore sometimes predict weakness leads to strength while other times predicting that strength will lead to strength.
> 
> ...





Im sorry but i really dont understand this message , can you break it down into more simple terms.


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## sinner (11 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Im sorry but i really dont understand this message , can you break it down into more simple terms.




Guess I owe somebody some dollars and/or donuts...


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## RobertoHood (11 August 2015)

sinner said:


> Guess I owe somebody some dollars and/or donuts...




Just dollars please , no donuts (bodys a temple)


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## RobertoHood (11 August 2015)

OK so far for anyone whose following so far :- 

ASX100 : -0.07% (Based on Mondays open to today's close)

6 Stock Picks : .696%

Now i know that's not a very impressive return (although for anyone whose been watching some good profits could have been taken, all 6 were up from Mondays open this morning around 10-10:30am)

But in regards to this "system" following the index, i can assure you all that it doesn't , but time will tell. And the only way to prove this is to show you! 

Hope everyone had a good day on the markets!


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## RobertoHood (12 August 2015)

Wowzers! What a day


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## ThingyMajiggy (12 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Wowzers! What a day




Yep, this should certainly test out your strategy of a higher close on Friday!


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## RobertoHood (12 August 2015)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yep, this should certainly test out your strategy of a higher close on Friday!




Haha yes it should Thingy


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## So_Cynical (12 August 2015)

I suppose that even a 95% success rate for 9 weeks in every 10 would still be a viable outcome...as long as you didn't lose to much in that one week.


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## systematic (13 August 2015)

tech/a, did this make sense?


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## tech/a (13 August 2015)

Yes of course.

Not a system I could live with.
I was fully aware how it could occur.

But still think that with a method which is in a market
Which you can trade long OR short that to actually design
A system as you suggest and have it lose 100 or so ticks
While not having a winning trade ---- would be very difficult.

If you've done it that's pretty interesting---to me.


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## systematic (13 August 2015)

tech/a said:


> Yes of course.
> 
> Not a system I could live with.
> I was fully aware how it could occur.





I think you've got me confused with another poster. 

You seemed incredulous toward cynic on page 2 of this thread, so I gave you an example of how it could happen.  Otherwise, why be surprised?  Anyway...




tech/a said:


> But still think that with a method which is in a market
> Which you can trade long OR short that to actually design
> A system as you suggest and *have it lose 100 or so ticks*





...In my example, it was a 14 pip loss, over 100 trades.  Not sure where you've got 100 from.




tech/a said:


> ...to actually design A system as you suggest and have it lose 100 or so ticks *While not having a winning trade *




Where in my example was there not a winning trade?  My example had *97% *winning trades!

Based on the above highlighted comments, I think you've misunderstood entirely, but will leave it there.  All good; just offering an example.  Might have been insightful for a newbie reading anyway.


----------



## tech/a (13 August 2015)

systematic said:


> I think you've got me confused with another poster.
> 
> You seemed incredulous toward cynic on page 2 of this thread, so I gave you an example of how it could happen.  Otherwise, why be surprised?  Anyway...
> 
> ...




Not understanding the pedantic nature of the to and fro ings.
Aware it can be done.
If you have a single loss of 100 ticks in 3% of your trades then you would have to go for an extended no of ticks
without a winning trade.

Anyway---


----------



## RobertoHood (13 August 2015)

Back in NAB for another cheeky wee trade 
Should go very well ....unless China decide to devalue again !
In @ 32.015


Anyone wanna have a shot in the dark where i plan to take profits?


----------



## pinkboy (13 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Back in NAB for another cheeky wee trade
> Should go very well ....unless China decide to devalue again !
> In @ 31.015




You mean _$32.015_?

And outside your supposed 'system' ?

pinkboy


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## RobertoHood (13 August 2015)

pinkboy said:


> You mean _$32.015_?
> 
> And outside your supposed 'system' ?
> 
> pinkboy



 Oops Yes pinkboy


----------



## RobertoHood (13 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Oops Yes pinkboy




pinkboy , my system predicts which stocks will be up from Monday's open at Fridays close so far with 95% accuracy.

If i take profits during the week , and then the stock falls below Mondays open e.g NAB and by a decent percentage.

I will buy again because there is a 95% chance it will end at/or above Mondays open by Friday.

Pretty simple


----------



## pinkboy (13 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> pinkboy , my system predicts which stocks will be up from Monday's open at Fridays close so far with 95% accuracy.
> 
> If i take profits during the week , and then the stock falls below Mondays open e.g NAB and by a decent percentage.
> 
> ...




It's not pretty simple anymore. You just added a complexity. And it's not part of your 'system'.

pinkboy


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## RobertoHood (13 August 2015)

Big sell of at the end of today

ASX100 =  -1.62%
Stock Picks = -.812%


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## RobertoHood (13 August 2015)

pinkboy said:


> It's not pretty simple anymore. You just added a complexity. And it's not part of your 'system'.
> 
> pinkboy




Like i stated earlier, the SYSTEM predicts stocks which will be up for the week. 

How one goes about trading it is up to there own risk management interpretation 

The SYSTEM is still the same regardless.

Regards
Roberto


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## cynic (13 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Big sell of at the end of today
> 
> ASX100 =  -1.62%
> Stock Picks = -.812%




Overall statistics pertaining to outperformance of the XJO would be interesting.


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## RobertoHood (13 August 2015)

cynic said:


> Overall statistics pertaining to outperformance of the XJO would be interesting.




S&P/ASX 200 (^AXJO) = -1.59%


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## cynic (13 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> S&P/ASX 200 (^AXJO) = -1.69%



My post was a bit too light on detail.  I was thinking that the selections made pursuant to your formulae/methodology might be consistently outperforming a shortable index and that perhaps this could be used as a basis for a trading strategy.


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## RobertoHood (14 August 2015)

Well well well , isn't that ironic!

The week i decide to post ,we experience a rough week and my theory gets spanked with a big wet fish!

Prior to this week, the 1 BUY signal which failed happened on the week of Jun 1 - Jun 5 which was a -4.84% week drop on the ASX100.

My ACCURACY now sits at  

24/30 = 80% (5 of those Losses from this week)


ASX200: -2.16%
ASX100 : -2.22%
6 Stock Picks : -1.57%

I took a loss from yesterdays BUY on NAB @32.015 , and sold today @31.76  (-0.8% Loss)

CTX : -1.833
LLC : -.805
NAB : -3.47
OSH : -1.903
REC : .286
S32: -3.24



I will post my BUY signals for next week later on tonight, may even start posting PnL next week  , although she was a rough week , i still walked away with some decent profits.... but my pride on the other hand took a few hits !

Hope everyone walked away from the week mostly unscathed!


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## cynic (14 August 2015)

Your picks outperformed the index by over half a percent!


If this is a regular occurrence, your selection technique may have a useful edge.


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## tech/a (14 August 2015)

Looking forward to next weeks


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## montauk66 (14 August 2015)

If this worked you'd have made 1m from 30k if you started in 2009.


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## RobertoHood (14 August 2015)

cynic said:


> Your picks outperformed the index by over half a percent!
> 
> 
> If this is a regular occurrence, your selection technique may have a useful edge.




Yes its very interesting though, i only got one BUY signal (which ended up being a false signal) for the week of Jun 1 - Jun 5, which i thought was odd... until the market closed that week down almost 5%. Almost as if the market knew it was going to happen.

This week started like all the others, i had multiple BUY signals (6) and at Mondays close 5/6 were up.

On Tuesday 5/6 were up most of the day and 6/6 at some stages. The market was on track to close higher and yada yada yada and then BANG!

China devalued the Yuan which sent out a shockwave which i don't  think the Market expected.

Which i think is the reason for the bad week. 

NOW this could be wishful think and i am no expert, 

but there is no other explanation why this system would fail horribly on the back of a 23/24 run other than ... it doesn't work and im clutching at straws... which i myself fail to believe.

Its going to be very interesting to see how many BUY signals i get for next! (Which i will check for later and post after the gym)

Im excited


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## tech/a (14 August 2015)

It's pretty common.
If the market down turns
Long signals deminish


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## Wysiwyg (14 August 2015)

montauk66 said:


> If this worked you'd have made 1m from 30k if you started in 2009.



  Brokers dream. 

@ Tech/a -- why such restraint? You could probably say something like -- the testing had not seen a week like this one.


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## tech/a (14 August 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Brokers dream.
> 
> @ Tech/a -- why such restraint? You could probably say something like -- the testing had not seen a week like this one.




Evidently it did in July
That's why I said its common.
Seen it many times


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## RobertoHood (14 August 2015)

Alright guys here's what i have for next week;

AST
BHP
IAG
NVT
TAH
TWE


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## skc (14 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Alright guys here's what i have for next week;
> 
> AST
> BHP
> ...




Your 12 weeks history yielded only 23 signals, or <2 per week. This week and next week you have 6 signals per week.

Any reason as to why?


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## RobertoHood (14 August 2015)

skc said:


> Your 12 weeks history yielded only 23 signals, or <2 per week. This week and next week you have 6 signals per week.
> 
> Any reason as to why?




I have been thinking the same and have no idea why, the same patterns are showing up more often and Im not sure what it means.

Next week will tell the story i guess skc.


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## systematic (14 August 2015)

Is this the first time you've live tested it, after 4 years of development?


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## RobertoHood (15 August 2015)

systematic said:


> Is this the first time you've live tested it, after 4 years of development?




Hey system,

I haven't been developing THIS particular system for 4 years, but more after 4 years of working through developing systems this is where i have ended up.

My starting System, when i first started trading has been posted in the "Potential Breakouts" thread. That was where i started, now as i evolved so did my system which is the one i am using today. (which when i stumbled upon it, it wasn't long before i started this thread due to my excitement!)

I have been trading it for the past 2 weeks. 

Next week i will post some PnL, with confirmed Buys and Sells to prove i'm actually trading it.


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## RobertoHood (15 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Alright guys here's what i have for next week;
> 
> AST
> BHP
> ...




I have removed NVT and TAH as they are on the fringes of the BUY scale.
These 4 sit firmly in BUY range


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## RobertoHood (15 August 2015)

skc said:


> Your 12 weeks history yielded only 23 signals, or <2 per week. This week and next week you have 6 signals per week.
> 
> Any reason as to why?




To add to this question skc , as i now have a clearer head 

What this system MEASURES makes sense logically if i were to show you... But where the BUY signals happen and the where and why the patterns form make no sense at all, they actually seem counter intuitive.

And the way this System come about , was because i was looking to measure certain components to add to my trading strategy and the way i had my spreadsheet set up , i was clearly able to see a very strange pattern.... To the point where i got my girl friend to go through the spreadsheet (she knows nothing about stocks) and by telling her the pattern to look for , and with out seeing the next weeks %Gain , she was able to go through and say which stocks would end the week up and which wouldn't.. 

All worked BAR, ASX.AX Jun 1 - Jun 5 which ended the week -2.28


----------



## RobertoHood (17 August 2015)

Hey guys,

Spent most of the weekend rebuilding my system , i found a number of errors and decided to rebuild from scratch.  

TWE , WPL , BHP 

These are the stock picks for this week


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## tech/a (17 August 2015)

Did it return similar figures to those shown by version (1).

Interested to know how and what you did in the testing process to
be able to be confident that this version is More accurate.

What do you look for when evaluating the robustness of a method.
What "figures" are important?
Your only using Excel?
Still with only 3 mths of data?


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## RobertoHood (17 August 2015)

Hey guys,

Here are this mornings BUYS, i was a bit slow off the mark 

BHP 630 @ $25.510

TWE 2870 @ $5.596

WPL 485 @ $32.64


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## RobertoHood (17 August 2015)

tech/a said:


> Did it return similar figures to those shown by version (1).
> 
> Interested to know how and what you did in the testing process to
> be able to be confident that this version is More accurate.
> ...




Hey tech,

I had created a template , which i had planned to use to test other markets but because i had copied/pasted the template to blank worksheets, some of the formulas were take data and calculating from the wrong cells.

Only made a slight difference from my previous version in some stocks, and huge differences to others.

But also squashed alot of the BUY signals i had previously got for this week, once i ran the data through the new sheet.


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## CanOz (17 August 2015)

RH, do you need more data to test with?


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## RobertoHood (17 August 2015)

CanOz said:


> RH, do you need more data to test with?





Yes , i am going to start running data from other markets through the template and see if i can find anything interesting


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## CanOz (17 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Yes , i am going to start running data from other markets through the template and see if i can find anything interesting




Perhaps i missed something prior, but i was wondering if you wanted to test back further than three months on your current universe but you didn't have the data?


----------



## RobertoHood (17 August 2015)

CanOz said:


> Perhaps i missed something prior, but i was wondering if you wanted to test back further than three months on your current universe but you didn't have the data?




I have used 3 months as my own personal general rule CanOz (which ties in with the system), i could definitely get the data if i wanted to do so.


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## CanOz (17 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> I have used 3 months as my own personal general rule CanOz (which ties in with the system), i could definitely get the data if i wanted to do so.




Sorry, i was under the impression you didn't have the data going back further than 3 months. reading though the thread you really havent addressed the reason why you've back tested on so little data? From my POV a walk forward (what you are doing now?) would only occur after:

1.) a successful back test on a minimum or 10 years of EOD data
2.) a successful backtest on an additional 5 years of OOS data

At this point, you would have the confidence in your system to walk forward at least 1 year.

I'd like to see Howard jump in here, but i think even my requirements above are likely too short. I know one system trader that everyone else knows and i think he tests his EOD systems on 30 years.

So i guess i am just trying to understand why you are not following the accepted test regime for EOD systems? What is the point to move directly to a (live) walk forward?

Again, sorry if i have missed this answer.

CanOz


----------



## skc (17 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> Here are this mornings BUYS, i was a bit slow off the mark
> 
> ...




FYI, both WPL and TWE are due to report on Wednesday 19 Aug. 

Unless your strategy has been designed to take into account of potential wild swings from reporting... might be wise to step aside.

BHP reports next week on 25 Aug so I guess the position would be closed by then.


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## Wysiwyg (18 August 2015)

A backtest report would be handy to show these purported outcomes? Something like the following ---  Only 52% right though!


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## RobertoHood (18 August 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> A backtest report would be handy to show these purported outcomes? Something like the following ---  Only 52% right though!
> 
> View attachment 63886
> 
> ...





Hmm Interesting Wysiwyg...


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Hmm Interesting Wysiwyg...



I could not stomach a 45% drawdown and back testing over long periods should be done on stock lists including de-listings, mergers etc. otherwise the test list is bias toward surviving.


----------



## RobertoHood (18 August 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> I could not stomach a 45% drawdown and back testing over long periods should be done on stock lists including de-listings, mergers etc. otherwise the test list is bias toward surviving.




That back test survived the tech bust and the 08 recession! 

Looking at total return from an initial $10,000 investment , i know which of the two i would want to place my money.


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## Wysiwyg (18 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> That back test survived the tech bust and the 08 recession!
> 
> Looking at total return from an initial $10,000 investment , i know which of the two i would want to place my money.



Oh I can get a fantastic back test result too.


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## skyQuake (18 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Hmm Interesting Wysiwyg...




I'm surprised there exists data that goes back to 1980 for backtesting! Where do you get your data?
esp. historical XJO or All Ords constituents for the testing universe


----------



## shouldaindex (18 August 2015)

Similar question, where do you find (for example) the top 100 companies by market cap for 1992.


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## CanOz (18 August 2015)

skyQuake said:


> I'm surprised there exists data that goes back to 1980 for backtesting! Where do you get your data?
> esp. historical XJO or All Ords constituents for the testing universe




Premium Data has a fair bit of great quality data....


----------



## skyQuake (18 August 2015)

CanOz said:


> Premium Data has a fair bit of great quality data....




Thanks, will give that a go. Ive been fussing over incorrect Index constituents over a whole array of providers


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## RobertoHood (19 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> Here are this mornings BUYS, i was a bit slow off the mark
> 
> ...






As Monty Burns woulds say.... Exxxcelllent


----------



## prawn_86 (20 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> As Monty Burns woulds say.... Exxxcelllent




Why do you monitor them throughout the week if the only way of testing the 'system' is EOD on Fridays? Ptherwise if you are exiting before that it isn't really what you have described being a system with a 95% success rate


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## RobertoHood (20 August 2015)

Here is a summary from my back testing for the 3 month period to date.

I found some flaws in my system , and i got a more realistic strike rate far from the 95% W/L rate i was initially getting.

Still going to trade this regardless, and may even be able to tweak a bit more and narrow in on losses.


----------



## CanOz (20 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Here is a summary from my back testing for the 3 month period to date.
> 
> I found some flaws in my system , and i got a more realistic strike rate far from the 95% W/L rate i was initially getting.
> 
> Still going to trade this regardless, and may even be able to tweak a bit more and narrow in on losses.




Stop loss is -2.65%, how did you settle on such an accurate number?


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## RobertoHood (20 August 2015)

CanOz said:


> Stop loss is -2.65%, how did you settle on such an accurate number?





Measuring volatility, it seems to be a good range to allow for the most of the stocks to move on a weekly basis.

Falling below 2.65% seems to see the stocks finish the week down on the open.


----------



## skc (20 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Here is a summary from my back testing for the 3 month period to date.
> 
> I found some flaws in my system , and i got a more realistic strike rate far from the 95% W/L rate i was initially getting.
> 
> Still going to trade this regardless, and may even be able to tweak a bit more and narrow in on losses.




Your position sizing and rate of compounding used in the back test may be unrealistic.

1. you'd never put all your eggs in one basket. Your back test period is so short you haven't hit a major adverse event. Imagine a profit downgrade that cut the stock price by 30% while you have it long with 100% of your account.

2. The opening match is getting very thin these days. I'd say something like $20-30k position would be about the size that you can trade on open without moving the match price.


----------



## RobertoHood (20 August 2015)

skc said:


> Your position sizing and rate of compounding used in the back test may be unrealistic.
> 
> 1. you'd never put all your eggs in one basket. Your back test period is so short you haven't hit a major adverse event. Imagine a profit downgrade that cut the stock price by 30% while you have it long with 100% of your account.
> 
> 2. The opening match is getting very thin these days. I'd say something like $20-30k position would be about the size that you can trade on open without moving the match price.




The starting capital for the backtest doesnt mean anything , it could realistically be any number.

I personally usually trade with around $50k split up by how ever many buy signals i get.

As for the product downgrade yes that could happen, but thats the market we trade.


----------



## skyQuake (20 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> The starting capital for the backtest doesnt mean anything , it could realistically be any number.
> 
> I personally usually trade with around $50k split up by how ever many buy signals i get.
> 
> As for the product downgrade yes that could happen, but thats the market we trade.




Think he meant capital allocation. Not dollar value.
eg LYC was in the 100s at one point I believe, then came a few 30% moves. If LYC was your only signal for the week would you have put in all your $ into it?


----------



## RobertoHood (20 August 2015)

skyQuake said:


> Think he meant capital allocation. Not dollar value.
> eg LYC was in the 100s at one point I believe, then came a few 30% moves. If LYC was your only signal for the week would you have put in all your $ into it?




I would never risk 100% capital on one trade, especially with a system which is hitting a 60.5% of the time.

I have also found that when i get a BUY signal, and their is no "fundamental" reason which could be contributing to the signall , the stocks appear to perform better and it smooths out the false BUY signals. Eg BHP , WPL this week, among others in the back test which also provided false buys.

Also the reason why i only trade ASX100 stocks , which compared to overall stock world in Australia is relatively  less volatile although they can and do happen.


----------



## RobertoHood (21 August 2015)

What a week!

Bit of a balls up going through with BUY signals on WPL and BHP

Hope everyone survived the week all good


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## tech/a (21 August 2015)

So you close these out tonight and new prospects next week?

Win rate 66% this week.
Looking forward to next week


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## skyQuake (21 August 2015)

Nice exit on the WPL. Does your system account for discr exits? You mentioned it previously but I cant seem to find it anymore


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## Porper (21 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> What a week!
> 
> Bit of a balls up going through with BUY signals on WPL and BHP
> 
> Hope everyone survived the week all good




Just to clarify, are you using opening price on Monday and closing price on Friday? If so you seem to be getting in at a lower price and selling at a higher price?


----------



## RobertoHood (22 August 2015)

Hey Guys,


Had a bit of free time, so decided to run another back test starting from Aug-11-2014 and running through till Aug-21-2105

So a years worth of data , again just running through the ASX100 stocks.

It simply displays what would happen if every single BUY signal over the last year was acted upon.
(which may/may not be possible, depending on available capital, multiple BUY signals in a week etc)

I also included an accuracy rate on the spreadsheet which is an indication of what % of the BUY signals were indeed accurate for each particular stock.

This backtest is also a whopping 1% up from my previous back test which used a 12 week time frame. 

The order at where the "back test" capital starts to BUY from is not by DATE , but from Alphabetical Order of the stock names , but looking at the data bomb , i really don't think it would make much difference , and is probably not far off being completely random.

I have uploaded a snap shot of a backtest with a -2.65% stoploss, and also a snap shot of one without a stoploss at all , as well as all the corresponding data.

Also, i realize the compounding does get a little bit ridiculous ... but hey play around with it!

Enjoy, also lowered the starting capital to $10,000.


----------



## RobertoHood (22 August 2015)

Porper said:


> Just to clarify, are you using opening price on Monday and closing price on Friday? If so you seem to be getting in at a lower price and selling at a higher price?





Hey Porper,

I ended up selling early to take profits while i could! Although i wasn't so lucky with BHP.

The system ended the week with a 33.3% accuracy rate. With TWE  being the only stock out of the 3 to end the week up from the open +6.33%

As for the opening prices, attached are my Confirmed BUYS of BHP, TWE and WPL ,  i was a bit late getting in with TWE, but as for the other two i got them bang on the open.


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## RobertoHood (22 August 2015)

skyQuake said:


> Nice exit on the WPL. Does your system account for discr exits? You mentioned it previously but I cant seem to find it anymore





Thanks skyQuake,

The system only takes into account stocks up at Fridays close from Mondays open.

Any exits during the week, do not count toward the systems win% , only if the stocks closes the week up from the open do they count.

And as i am now starting to realize i'm more toward the 65% win rate as opposed to 95%!


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## Wysiwyg (22 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> I have uploaded a snap shot of a backtest with a -2.65% stoploss, and also a snap shot of one without a stoploss at all , as well as all the corresponding data.
> 
> Also, i realize the compounding does get a little bit ridiculous ... but hey play around with it!
> 
> Enjoy, also lowered the starting capital to $10,000.



Keep posting your real time trades dude because that is the ultimate truth. The back tests are garbage and we know it.


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## PennD (23 August 2015)

Hi roberto.. you may be pushing poop up hill while the overall matket is in decline... is there a way you can reverse your system and find the best shorting opportunity? Otherwise it appears you are fighting the larger trend. Cheers Penn


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## skyQuake (23 August 2015)

Just looking at the stats alone I think you may have made some testing errors.

1. No stop loss and yes stop loss have the exact same winners and losers.
I would have expected stop loss test to have less winners (due to being stopped) but smaller losers
And there would have definitely been stocks that went through the stop loss, then ended the week positive.

2. Max DD of -2.65% with stops. Pretty sure there were plenty of gaps in the past 2 weeks. Especially with some terrible earnings. There should be at least a few -5%+ in there somewhere.


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## RobertoHood (24 August 2015)

Hey guys,

Sorry for the late update!

Only one BUY signal for this week! 

AIO

And did i purchase it?  ...... no haha, im on the sidelines this week!


----------



## Porper (24 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> Sorry for the late update!
> 
> ...




For total clarity I think you should post your buys on a Sunday...or before market open Monday. Those who are sceptical could imply you've waited to see the damage today on open. Interesting that your pick (AIO) has held up really well so far today.


----------



## pinkboy (24 August 2015)

Porper said:


> For total clarity I think you should post your buys on a Sunday...or before market open Monday. Those who are sceptical could imply you've waited to see the damage today on open. Interesting that your pick (AIO) has held up really well so far today.




Yep, my thoughts exactly.

Was waiting for an update up until this morning.  OP did mention they did their scan Friday night after close, so not sure why we didn't see anything from then onwards?

pinkboy


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## RobertoHood (24 August 2015)

pinkboy said:


> Yep, my thoughts exactly.
> 
> Was waiting for an update up until this morning.  OP did mention they did their scan Friday night after close, so not sure why we didn't see anything from then onwards?
> 
> pinkboy





Totally understand guys, does look a bit dodgy,

Was a busy weekend! I have been working on other things as well and forgot to update the thread! My apologies.


----------



## cynic (24 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Totally understand guys, does look a bit dodgy,
> 
> Was a busy weekend! I have been working on other things as well and forgot to update the thread! My apologies.




Overall you've come across as very open and honest with your disclosures on this thread, so whilst I might normally have agreed with others concerns, on this occasion I see no need to doubt your personal integrity.


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## PZ99 (24 August 2015)

RobertoHood said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> Sorry for the late update!
> 
> ...



Should've bought a bear.... 







... then buy a jeep


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## drizl1 (1 September 2015)

Hi Roberto, just wondering if you ran your scan on Friday and if you had any BUY signals?


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## RobertoHood (9 September 2015)

Hey guys!

Sorry for the hiatus, i havent had much time to work on the system , as i have been focused on trading this crazy volatility!

I will come back to the system once the smoke clears , but i have just been scalping lately based on the U.S after hours market , and watching the NZX50 prior to the ASX opening among other things!

Today i have performed a wee scalp with NAB which i intend to close out very soon,

Hope everyone has been well


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## Wysiwyg (21 September 2015)

Hey Rob. Looks like NAB was a loss trade matey! Timing for this strategy was bad. 95% is not consistent as real time trades show.


----------

