# BGA - Bega Cheese



## Gringotts Bank (22 April 2011)

Can't find anything on their website.  Anyone know who'd handling the float?  Or any other info?  I'm after a prospectus.  Thanks.


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## Silhouetteau (22 April 2011)

*Re: Bega float*

Hey mate,

Found this, looks like more will come out after Easter:

"Bega is being advised by boutique adviser Kidder Williams and is expected to appoint an investment bank after Easter to help with the initial public offering, the report said."

Source:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-report-pd20110421-G56G6?OpenDocument&src=hp5


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## Gringotts Bank (22 April 2011)

*Re: Bega float*

Thanks silhou, will keep my eyes on their website and newspapers after easter.  Might be a good one to get in on.


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## Liar's Poker (20 July 2011)

*Re: Bega float*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks silhou, will keep my eyes on their website and newspapers after easter.  Might be a good one to get in on.




Hey GB,

Commsec have the IPO listed on their site.

-Liar-


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## ROE (20 July 2011)

*Re: BGA - Bega Cheese IPO*

Had a quick look
Too little information on fundamental
Balance sheet look weak
Too expensive 

too many EBITDA word and when I see too many of those I usually run.  

I stay away


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## Tyler Durden (20 July 2011)

*Re: BGA - Bega Cheese IPO*

Yes I spotted it on the comsec site too.
My concern is Coles and Woolies making their own cheese and competing with Bega, like they have already done with bread and milk.


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## skc (20 July 2011)

*Re: BGA - Bega Cheese IPO*

$2 a share with equity value ~$254m, debt ~$95m, EBITDA ~$46.6m, Net profit unspecified but probably ~$26m.

EV/EBITDA = 7.5x
P/E = 9.8x

It certainly isn't expensive but compared with WCB those valuations are quite generous.

Liquidity could be a problem with only 15% free float.

News here.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/national/9870690/bega-launches-350m-ipo/


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## Tysonboss1 (20 July 2011)

*Re: BGA - Bega Cheese IPO*



Tyler Durden said:


> Yes I spotted it on the comsec site too.
> My concern is Coles and Woolies making their own cheese and competing with Bega, like they have already done with bread and milk.




I can't see coles or woolies getting into the dairy infrastructure business.

Offcourse they already have generic brand cheese on the market, which is just cheese that is packaged under licence by another producer.


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## So_Cynical (20 July 2011)

*Re: BGA - Bega Cheese IPO*



Tyler Durden said:


> Yes I spotted it on the comsec site too.
> My concern is Coles and Woolies making their own cheese and competing with Bega, like they have already done with bread and milk.




Coles and Woolies do not make there own milk and bread (besides there onsite bakery's)
Coles and Woolies get contractors to package bread and milk etc in their packaging to their specifications etc.

I know for a fact that Dairy Farmers in Sydney (now National foods) pack Milk for Woolies.


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## Miner (21 July 2011)

*Re: BGA - Bega Cheese IPO*

Since I saw BEGA IPO in Commsec :

I have been asking these questions myself putting myself in  supermarket :

I have Bega cheese, Kraft Cheese, Coon Cheese, Mainland cheese, Mainland Coles Cheese, heaps of unbranded cheese in coles and Woolies, so many varieties within the same brand .
Health conscious people have started reduced amount of cheese.
What is the shelf life and what market share could Bega will be attract.
How much free float?
is dairy a profitable business
Is Bega a premium much sought after brand ?
Did I enjoy Bega Taste ?
Did my kids enjoy Bega Taste ?
with such a high competion?

Further how many IPOS Commsec has been able to launch with a price more than face value ?
After studying so many ifs, I will wait the share to list in the market and then I will make a decision and hold the fire from investing in IPO.
Please DYOR and I am more likely to be wrong


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## RandR (23 July 2011)

*Re: BGA - Bega Cheese IPO*

had a quick glance at the prospectus the other day ... 

once i read the words "money raised by the float will be used to pay down debt and pay down the cost of the float" i decided not to look too much further.

I will keep an eye on it once its listed though, I do have a penchant for agri stocks


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## So_Cynical (28 April 2012)

8 months after the Float i reckon its time for an update.

BGA is now trading at a 17.5% discount to the $2 float price of just 8 months ago, paid a maiden FF dividend of 3 CPS recently and formally executed a 5 year supply agreement with Coles to produce Coles branded cheese, they have also completed a merger with Tatura Milk Industry's so now have a Victorian production facility...and they own 15% of ASX listed (WBC) Warrnambool Cheese & Butter.

So for anyone that thought (Like me) that the $2 float price was a bit rich...hows a 17.5% discount sound? i imagine a merger with WBC is on the cards somewhere down the road thus making BGA an Aust Dairy powerhouse...certainly the #3 player behind  Parmalat and Nat foods...in a market where there are only 5 or 6 manufacturers of any significance.
~


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## bowseruni (11 March 2013)

Anyone have any information on the recent increase? good profits over the last month


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## chops_a_must (11 March 2013)

Asia pacific cheese and butter prices have been going gangbusters.


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## bowseruni (11 March 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> Asia pacific cheese and butter prices have been going gangbusters.




I did hear a rumour the Chinese were buying a heap of stock


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## bowseruni (14 March 2013)

Can someone interpret todays announcement for me?


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## Country Lad (14 March 2013)

bowseruni said:


> Can someone interpret todays announcement for me?




I assume you mean the Form 604 Notice which seems fairly straight forward where Bega Cheese Limited have advised that they have increased their shareholding in Warrnambool Cheese and Butter Factory Company Holdings Ltd from 16.1% to 17.1%.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## Country Lad (14 March 2013)

bowseruni said:


> I did hear a rumour the Chinese were buying a heap of stock




Better check your source to see what he means by "a heap of stock".  Just having a "rough, can that be true", type look at the numbers, I doubt that rumour. 

The average daily turnover is about 110,000 over the past year.  The average daily turnover for the last 30 days is about 148,000. If the difference is Chinese buying then it will take them nearly 2 years to get 10%.

Doesn't look right does it?   Didn't get it from HC did you?


Cheers
Country Lad


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## Country Lad (12 September 2013)

A tale of 2 cheeses.  I sold out of BGA when it was obvious the price was going to fall and didn't consider WCB as its price was not looking flash at the time.

Only recently looked at both again and set buy points with the off chance that BGA would take over WCB as had been rumoured for years.

Well WCB certainly broke out today, up about 30% based on the long awaited takeover by BGA.  Too late.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## Miner (25 October 2016)

So_Cynical said:


> 8 months after the Float i reckon its time for an update.
> 
> BGA is now trading at a 17.5% discount to the $2 float price of just 8 months ago, paid a maiden FF dividend of 3 CPS recently and formally executed a 5 year supply agreement with Coles to produce Coles branded cheese, they have also completed a merger with Tatura Milk Industry's so now have a Victorian production facility...and they own 15% of ASX listed (WBC) Warrnambool Cheese & Butter.
> 
> ...




Looks like history repeated with BEGA even for different reason. Massive slump once again Mr China drove the race to south.
When we have a back up risk management knowing Chinese marketers change colour every week.
Do not hold BEGA nor eat their products but feeling sorry for those who lost money.
No wonder for 3 years no one posted any thing on BEGA - all got disillusioned.
My fear is now for A2M - how that will fall apart with so much milk overflowing in WA and others.


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## Miner (19 December 2018)

BGA slumped today following market update. Only recently the company issued a SPP @$7.10 and the directors unloaded their shares slightly lesser than the rights offer after it is closed.
Now today it has already dived by 8.63%. Who is talking to shareholders who faithfully dished out $7.10 for the scrip on end of OCtober ??? Are we cooking rotten fish with fat of cheese ?
Disclaimer - DNH
Any comments folks






Though I do not follow the free news articles from Motley but probably the wording can be noted.


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## Miner (19 December 2018)

Though I do not follow the freely available notes from Motley Fool but on this instance, it is worth what they have said. Definitely the comparison with A2M and CGC with BGA is not apple with apple.


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## Miner (19 December 2018)

BGA is not going as a smooth cheese and now it is hovering below $5 .
Reviewing our own cheese buying, I am thinking if we have ever bought BEGA brand cheese ourselves. NO.
So could quality be another factor for them not to be able to capture market?


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## So_Cynical (19 December 2018)

Lower milk volume due to the drought and higher farm gate prices, Bega has the capacity to greatly increase their powdered output so potentially get some/more of those Chinese dollars, but capacity is one thing and supply another, Bega like all dairy manufacturers can only processes whats available thus can be constrained by raw product supply.

A heap of shares issued recently at $7.10 makes Bega look pretty cheap now, have been thinking about an entry as i have a weakness for dairy even though i have never done super well out of it.


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## Miner (19 December 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Lower milk volume due to the drought and higher farm gate prices, Bega has the capacity to greatly increase their powdered output so potentially get some/more of those Chinese dollars, but capacity is one thing and supply another, Bega like all dairy manufacturers can only processes whats available thus can be constrained by raw product supply.
> 
> A heap of shares issued recently at $7.10 makes Bega look pretty cheap now, have been thinking about an entry as i have a weakness for dairy even though i have never done super well out of it.



Thanks SC for the share. Just making sure you find the current price is cheaper notwithstanding the PE ratio is so high and even if the rights were issued at $7.10. You always analyse very thoroughly so making sure that was a serious comment


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## Knobby22 (19 December 2018)

The thing is everything is looking cheap now.
I suppose this one could easily spring back hard and a lot of risk has been removed.
Despite the recent rains though we are into an El Nino, so the drought may reappear.
The company has definitely piqued my interest though.


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## Miner (19 December 2018)

Knobby22 said:


> The thing is everything is looking cheap now.
> I suppose this one could easily spring back hard and a lot of risk has been removed.
> Despite the recent rains though we are into an El Nino, so the drought may reappear.
> The company has definitely piqued my interest though.



@Knobby22  are we having cash cow scenario now from investment perspective


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## mcgrath111 (19 December 2018)

I've picked too many bottoms in my life. 
As noted above, it's not a like for like comparison to companies such as BAL. 
I might have a nibble at $3.40, likely won't go that low.


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## Miner (19 December 2018)

Mcgrath
LOL
I am unsure if you would be seen a popular man by the holders who exercised their rights at $7.10 should your wish come true by Santa in 2018


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## peter2 (27 January 2019)

Well, someone started nibbling at BGA last week. As a chartist, I'd prefer to see the last tested with a HL and then the subsequent BO would be very attractive. However BGA is not very liquid and prices can continue higher without the "classic" test. 

The chart below is part of a research project and should not be considered a recommendation to buy this stock. If you want to read more about the project log in to read the P2 Weekly Portfolio thread. 

Setup: Bouncing off support 
Grade B as there's no HL and the market may test the last low, my iSL must allow for that.
Buy limit: 5.20-5.40, iSL 4.75, trail higher


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## dyna (30 October 2019)

Been a while since I bought anything(Been selling heaps,though,to whack into super as non-concessional contributions before "retirement") So,I bought ten grand worth of BGA at $3.74,today.Some day the sun will stop shining,Rain will come p*ssing down.Rivers of milk will flow......that's my theory,anyway.


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## So_Cynical (30 October 2019)

dyna said:


> I bought ten grand worth of BGA at $3.74,today.Some day the sun will stop shining,Rain will come p*ssing down.Rivers of milk will flow.




You're not crazy, dividend will certainly be cut but longer term anyone buying today will do ok, Bega is a good business.


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## Smurf1976 (3 November 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> You're not crazy, dividend will certainly be cut but longer term anyone buying today will do ok, Bega is a good business.



Price is down significantly over the past few days but I note that on a weekly chart this past week had the highest volume of any week on the chart which goes back to 2011.


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## Value Hunter (3 November 2019)

I would only ever buy a business like Bega Cheese at or below the NTA per share (according to the preliminary annual report that is $1.36 per share of NTA). Its largely a commodity business operating in a highly competitive market with volatile earnings and modest profitability on a through the cycle basis. Although Bega is a well known brand, the brand does not have premium positioning or pricing power on its products. I feel like dairy products especially cheese is a market that is gradually becoming more fragmented and premiumized (yes I made the word up) like what has gradually happened to the beer market with small craft beer companies taking market share from cheap mas market beer.

Also I would not pay much attention to what Bega Cheese calls normalized earnings as a look through many years of their annual reports suggest they are one of those serial offender companies that frequently have "one off" or "abnormal" costs.

Also Bega seems to be a company that has made too many acquisitions and done too many capital raisings.


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## barney (3 November 2019)

dyna said:


> .Some day the sun will stop shining,Rain will come p*ssing down.





So_Cynical said:


> You're not crazy,  Bega is a good business.





Smurf1976 said:


> I note that on a weekly chart this past week had the highest volume of any week on the chart which goes back to 2011





Value Hunter said:


> I feel like dairy products especially cheese is a market that is gradually becoming more fragmented and *premiumized* (yes I made the word up)




Bega Cheese is not on my radar of Stocks, but I'm interested in the diverse collection of opinions on where it may or may not head in the longer term compared to the story of the Chart technicals (I think that is also a made up word)

If anybody actually takes the time to digest all my ramblings … you may need to get a life  as I am basically talking to myself out loud and may be totally incorrect/delusional

In short, the chart tells me thus: (and bear in mind I am an untrusting Spec trader who is currently having a bad month)

Short term Traders were in control of the initial drop and cleaned up … no doubt about that part!

The short/mid term trading "punishment" is still being developed and will reveal itself soonish.

Next couple of days price action could be very unclear (totally expected and probably better if it is)

However, at some point soon, I expect a quick push north for the current accumulators to cash in some of their chips ...

Followed by another push South (the strength of which will be determined by the amount of said "cashing in" which is completed on the upside push.

As @Smurf1976 has pointed out … the recent Volume indicates multiple parties are likely involved here.  The chart is interesting from a learning point of view (my learning) ….

I expect trying to short term trading could be difficult but also lowish risk no matter which way it goes

I'm not trading it but if I were, I'd consider accumulating portions on any serious dips, and taking profit on any serious jumps …..

Congratulations to anyone who has seen fit to finish the above (and below) "war and peace" post


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## So_Cynical (3 November 2019)

Barney you're using a 2 week chart, longer time frames tell different stories and some of the fundamentals tell a 
different story again, short term getting hammered for good reasons, these short term issues are not permanent.


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## barney (3 November 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> Barney you're using a 2 week chart, longer time frames tell different stories and some of the fundamentals tell a
> different story again, short term getting hammered for good reasons, these short term issues are not permanent.




Yeah … probably agreeing rather than disagreeing here S_C 

I was commenting on a short term trading basis only, mainly because I think that buying in at this point in time (purely Chart based) is probably not a good trading decision, unless it is just that .... ie. A short term based trading decision looking for the mandatory post dump bounce! lol   

All just in my opinion (which should be treated with the appropriate amount of caution of course

Fundamentals aside, The Chart drop generated some serious Volume which means it is being "watched" by Traders, and by default, traders tend to generate retail involvement.  

At this point in time it is in limbo for me.  I expect the recent lows to be both rejected (up) and tested (down), but the order of events could be a bit hard to read, so basically, I am saying bugger all and sitting on the fence lol  …. (I do have my theories on future price action however!) 

I could actually be Prime Minister material with that lack of clarity


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## peter2 (12 January 2020)

No doubt the price trend of BGA is DOWN. The price has been halved in the past two years. Price has bounced off a long term support level (3.80) after looking likely to go down much further (recent double bottom at 3.55). 

Price has filled the gap left by the selloff after the news that milk supply was very tight. The ongoing bush fires provided further reason for another sudden selloff. Again price has rallied quite quickly. This rally has formed a bullish key reversal bar on the weekly chart and adds further merit for more bullish price rises. (I wouldn't want to be short BGA right now.)






I've been impressed by the recent corporate updates on the impact that the current bush fires may have on the company. I also sense a strong community feeling as staff and locals help each other through these difficult times. If a dairy company lifts their milk price and provides assistance to their milk suppliers when times are difficult. I'd know who I'd sell my milk to.


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## Smurf1976 (12 January 2020)

Given the current situation, short of the Bega factory itself burning down it's hard to see things getting too much worse really. If it can go wrong then it mostly already has.


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## Trav. (12 January 2020)

Thanks for the charts @peter2

You have highlighted some interesting points which I have spent some time this morning reviewing and have a couple of follow up questions if you don't mind

1. What amount of weighting do you put on the Relative Strength of BGA compared to the XAO or even the XNJ when reviewing your charts?

2. You mentioned the price has filled that gap so I am assuming that you switched to the daily chart at this point. Do you look at multiple time frames before entry? If trading weekly I would have assumed the you would default to the monthly chart but are you just looking at daily time frames for this example only.

3. I am assuming that you just naturally ( through experience ) pick up on the double bottom ( not scanned for ) which gives some weight to your argument that moment is changing to the positive side in addition to the bullish bar.

Cheers
Trav


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## peter2 (12 January 2020)

RSC vs XAO: is probably the last thing I look at. I use it to decide between multiple opportunities. In this case (BGA), I was surprised to see the strength in the daily chart. Reversals are usually weaker than the index in all time frames. I'm usually trading pull-backs in the daily chart on stocks that are trending up and stronger than the index in the weekly chart. 

Yep, switched to the daily because the weekly hides many of the gaps. I use the monthly chart occasionally and did with BGA to see the huge support level at 3.80. 

Yes, just an observation as it was below the 3.80 level (dashed line). If I looked, there would be a bullish divergence indicator signal on the double bottom. Experience means I don't have to look for it to know it's there. 

For short term trader: Double bottom with bullish divergence makes that 1st blue bar a buy signal for a short term trade setup. The next 1st BB after the selloff day would be another. I passed on this one because of the possible impact the fires may have on supply. That's when I read BGA's updates.


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## Trav. (12 January 2020)

Awesome thanks for taking the time to respond.


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## Muschu (2 June 2020)

Any thoughts on what is happening with BGA please?  I've held for a month or so and have done well, but the last several days have seen downward movement on the back of no announcements.  Thoughts appreciated.


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## Country Lad (3 June 2020)

Muschu said:


> Any thoughts on what is happening with BGA please?  I've held for a month or so and have done well, but the last several days have seen downward movement on the back of no announcements.  Thoughts appreciated.




About the only thing I can think of is that Bega had won the right to use its labelling for the peanut butter products in a Federal Court decision and on 19 May Kraft-Heinz has filed an application in the High Court seeking leave to appeal that judgement.

Market usually doesn’t like litigation.


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## Dona Ferentes (3 June 2020)

BGA isn't doing too badly. Cruised through the GCC; no drastic sell-off in Feb-March..



> Bega exports over 60 million units of cheese per year to approximately 40 different countries



- strengthening AUD may have an impact here, over the last few weeks. Competing against the Europeans is always tough, plus I'd imagine supply lines may have been impacted recently.

As a provider of "natural cheese, processed cheese, powders and butter, packages cheese, cream cheese, powders and nutritionals", when dealing in volume there are only a few outlets, and maintaining aisle presence in the supermarkets is the hardest game.


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## Dona Ferentes (27 August 2020)

reported today:
Bega Cheese generated normalised earnings before interest, depreciation and tax (EBITDA) of $103.0 million in FY2020.  

Strong growth in the Australian and international branded business did not entirely offset the impact of reduced margins in Bega Cheese’s bulk dairy ingredients and nutritionals business with normalised EBITDA 2% lower than the prior year. The result was at the upper end of the guidance provided to the market on 29 October 2019.  Bega Cheese statutory EBITDA of $87.8 million was 11% higher than the prior year.

Net cash inflow from operating activities was $137.7 million in FY2020, compared to net cash inflows of $100.3 million in FY2019.  

Net working capital was $121.4 million for FY2020, a decrease of $56.3 million from FY2019. This has been achieved through an increased focus on accounts receivable and inventory management. 

Bega Cheese has continued to make progress reducing net debt throughout FY2020.  Net debt fell year on year by $51.8 million to $236.4 million. The normalised EBITDA to net debt leverage ratio has reduced from 2.75 times to 2.35 times. Bega Cheese is well within year end bank covenants of 3.75 times. Bega Cheese expects its leverage ratio to continue to reduce throughout FY2021 and is in a strong position to meet covenant requirements in the future.

Final FY2020 dividend : 5.0 cents per share

Executive Chairman of Bega Cheese Barry Irvin commented: 







> “It has been a year like no other, we began the year in the grips of drought which contributed to a very competitive milk procurement environment and then managed never before seen bushfires.  While still managing the impacts of those difficult circumstances COVID-19 was upon us, resulting in a major correction in global dairy commodity prices, a collapse in Australian and international food service demand and an increase in Australian retail demand”. Bega Cheese’s diversified dairy and food business and regional milk procurement model proved to be key to managing through the drought, devastating bushfires (particularly in the Bega and Gippsland regions) and the rapid changes in markets."



and there's a rumour now China Inc can't take over Aust dairy assets, Bega might be the obvious bidder.


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## peter2 (19 October 2020)

The BGA chart looks much more bullish now. Price is just below its yearly high and a very strong resistance level (5.50). Traders must be careful with placements of their exit triggers as the market depth is thin. 

There's an aggressive entry (BO > 5.40) or a more conservative one at 5.60.


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## Dona Ferentes (23 November 2020)

Bega Cheese is expected to raise up to $400 million to fund its purchase of Japanese drinks giant Kirin's Lion Dairy and Drinks.


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## Dona Ferentes (29 November 2020)

The acquisition of the Lion dairy and drinks business for $560million gives Bega some real muscle in the Australian industry, and also increases the export business to about $500 million in revenues. Exports of cream cheese go to Japan, fresh yoghurt goes to Asia and powdered milk for infant formula to Asia.

Before  the Vegemite acquisition in 2017, Bega's _*brand products *_portfolio made up just 20 per cent of its business as the company was little more than a provider of milk and cheese for private label brands owned by supermarkets. Bedding down the Mondelez buiness was an important stepping stone in learning how to extract value from branded gooods; the percentage was at 59 per cent last week, and by January, when it absorbs the Lion dairy and drinks business, it will be at 70 per cent. Lion manufactures milk and juice brands such as Big M, Pura, Dairy Farmers and Daily Juice.

CEO Barry Irwin says that these purchases are crucial in delivering better  returns for shareholders over time.  Group revenue will double to $3 billion a year with the Lion acquisition.


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## dyna (29 November 2020)

Institutional shareholders leapt at the 2:9 accelerated issue at $4.60.Seems like a better deal than the last (two) times this mob put their paws into the pockets of the punters!


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## mullokintyre (27 August 2021)

Sitting at 5.51 today which is my buy in price.
Not a big parcel, but would be keen to add to it if there is some price weakness.
Mick


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## Dona Ferentes (27 August 2021)

Bega Cheese has for the first time exceeded $2 billion in revenue after completing the acquisition of Lion Dairy and Drinks. The  $528 million acquisition has seen the company  effectively double in size ... employee numbers have jumped from  approximately 2,050 to 4,150.



> Executive chairman Barry Irvin said he was pleased with the result. _It is  a solid result, or a result that is in line with expectations, in the  context of challenging changing markets and a major acquisition, _he  said.



The $2.1 billion in revenue for the financial year to the end of June, up 39%, helped drive normalised earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to $141.7  million, both nearly 40 per cent higher than the prior financial year; normalised profits increased 24 per cent to $39 million.

It will pay a final fully franked dividend of 5¢ per share for the  financial year, taking the total dividend for the year to 10¢ per share. 


> _Strong  farm gate relationships along with the flexibility of a globally competitive supply chain helped navigate fluctuations in demand for product and a competitive market for milk supply,_ said Irvin.




Chief executive Paul Van Heerwaarden confirmed Bega Cheese had faced challenges managing milk supply in a very competitive market.


> _While we increased our milk intake through  the [Lion] acquisition, we lost some milk supply in Victoria due to the end of the two year Koroit supply guarantee with Saputo, strong competition for milk, and supplier exits due to retirements and  alternative land use,_ he said.


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## IrishDigger (29 August 2021)

I reckon the taste of Vegemite has changed and a browse on the question, 'Has The Taste Of Vegemite Changed' supports my belief, this is despite denials by Bega Management.


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## Dona Ferentes (29 August 2021)

IrishDigger said:


> I reckon the taste of Vegemite has changed and a browse on the question, 'Has The Taste Of Vegemite Changed' supports my belief, this is despite denials by Bega Management.



I definitely don't buy their peanut butter.


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## mullokintyre (29 August 2021)

No matter who makes it, I have never liked the taste of vegemite.
Always felt like an outcaste in my family because of it.
Mick


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## dyna (29 August 2021)

Try B-Mite. Bit of an acquired taste though, and hideously expensive. American p-butter is the best ( Skippy  , Super Jif )  doesn't have quite so much salt as ours, perhaps.


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## mullokintyre (23 December 2021)

Forecast  update on Bega out today.
Expecting EBITDA to be in the range 190 to 215 million, a significant improvement on last years  142 million.
Still stiff competition among processors to get the suppliers milk.
That will at least beg ood for dairyfarmers, as will the abundance of water for Goulburn Valley and Murray  valley dairy farmers.
Should give the co a boost today.
Mick


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## mullokintyre (23 December 2021)

Market didn't like it,  down 8% on open.
So I topped up.
The FTA signed between OZ and UK has about 125,000 tons of cheese that is exempt from tariffs which will help a small amount in the long run.
Dairy is on the up at the moment, giving some producers to invest in infrastructure and larger her sizes.
Mick


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## Ann (27 December 2021)

I was watching this for a buy as dairy is supposed to be rising in price, I guess rising dairy is not good for Bega, I noticed their sliced aged tasty has had a pretty large price increase at the supermarket. I left it and bought another brand.

I wonder if this is going to be another short seller's toy now?


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## dyna (27 December 2021)

Having to watch BGA like a hawk ,now. Methinks this thing is turning into a classic trader's stock.
The next drought can't be all that far off ,either.


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## mullokintyre (30 December 2021)

According to Todays Australian


> Mining billionaire Andrew Forrest is setting up for a closer eye on the action within well-known food brands owner Bega Cheese after splurging more than $108.3m on building up a 6.6 per cent stake through his Tattarang group.
> On Thursday, Bega Cheese issued a substantial shareholder notice detailing Tattarang AgriFood Investments, Forrest & Forrest and John Andrew Henry Forrest’s stake in the business through the purchase of more than 20 million shares between November 10 and December 29.



Bega up 4% today, so perhaps the market approves.
Mate of mine just got a retirement from Bega after 38 years there.
Very generous package he could not resist.
Mick


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## Dona Ferentes (30 December 2021)

But earlier in the week, BGA dropped 10% when it posted guidance that disappointed investors despite the FY earnings being as much as 50 per cent ahead of fiscal 2021, sitting between $195 million and $215 million.

Bega blamed _lockdowns for “extensive and significant” market disruption in food service channels. The pandemic has put pressures on the company that have resulted in “significant operational disruption”, including _

_factory shutdowns, _
_major changes to operations and logistics scheduling, _
_increased safety and testing regimes plus _
_major cost increases and shortages across the supply chain._
_The company also blamed the “structural change in the Chinese infant and toddler dairy nutritional market” for the bearish guidance._


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## mullokintyre (20 April 2022)

Trading update today, and Bega have seen further  reductions in forecast earnings at 175 to 190 million.
They reckon COVID related issues with staff and the recent floods  in NSW have added 40 mill in costs to the bottom line.
Issues with deliveries in the locked Shanghai region have also impacted.
The only good part is that world dairy prices are strongly up.
Maybe if the Covid issues are largely behind us, it may have a better year next year.
In the meantime,  just sitting it all out.
In for the long haul.
Mick


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## mullokintyre (7 July 2022)

BGA hit a new 52 week low of 3.67 on the opening, but it seems some buyers think its a good entry point, now up to 3.78.
Food will not be getting cheaper, though the cost pressures will not have eased much.
Recent rains in NSW have had a further adverse impact, but methinks all the bad stuff has been factored in.
Mick


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## dyna (9 July 2022)

Today's Weekend AFR  reports: broker research , unavailable to the mums and dads, has led to BGA 's S.P. being down 34 % for this year.
Some pretty fierce selling from Insto's like fund manager Perpetual, dumping over a million shares ( at $ 4.37 on June 16th and $ 3.83 on June  30th ).
The company hinted at rising costs, last month when it said it would be paying its dairy farmers more for milk.


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## frugal.rock (9 July 2022)

IrishDigger said:


> I reckon the taste of Vegemite has changed and a browse on the question, 'Has The Taste Of Vegemite Changed' supports my belief, this is despite denials by Bega Management.



I reckon it hasn't really changed.

It does mature or ripen after opening I have found.
Once opened is a sharper taste, after aging, it seems to mellow down and "dry out" a bit. A function of the yeast perhaps.  Forget beef stock cubes, use Vegemite 🧐


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## Dona Ferentes (10 July 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> .  Forget beef stock cubes, use Vegemite 🧐



Always a good addition in moderation, in some dishes. Did an Osso buco in the slow cooker last week and added some. Pretty salty, though.


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## Dona Ferentes (14 July 2022)

dyna said:


> ..The company hinted at rising costs, last month when it said it would be paying its dairy farmers more for milk.



rising milk price over June and July has seen Bega revise FY 2023 normalised EBITDA to finish between $160 million and $190 million, versus guidance between $175 million and $190 million in FY 2022.

Bega said it had been able to pass through _many of the higher input costs to retail and wholesale markets_, but Victorian farmgate milk prices had *soared 30 per cent *over FY 2022 prices.


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## Dona Ferentes (14 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Bega revised FY 2023 normalised EBITDA to finish between $160 million and $190 million, versus guidance between $175 million and $190 million in FY 2022.
> 
> Bega said it had been able to pass through _many of the higher input costs to retail and wholesale markets_, but ....



and down 9%. Now $3.23


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## Dona Ferentes (14 July 2022)




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## mullokintyre (14 July 2022)

.


Dona Ferentes said:


>




One of the reasons for the milk price rise is the appearance of "milk brokers".
These middle men/woman/persons  are buying milk directly at the farm gate, they then aggregate it into some larger volumes, and then onsell to one of the producers for the best price.
Its another  player who has inserted himself/herself/theyself into the mix without adding a single thing, but of course clipping  all the tickets on the way through.
The producers only have themselves to blame, they have been screwing the farmers for years, now the tables have turned.
Mick


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## mullokintyre (20 July 2022)

Bega got a please explain letter from the headmaster.
Answered them , will have to wait and see whether the headmaster is satisfied with the response.
Mick


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## Dona Ferentes (24 July 2022)

The July Update referred to a previous ASX announcement made by BGA titled “Trading Update FY2023” *(April Update) *in which BGA:  
• Gave an update on various disruptions to its business, including the continuing impact of COVID-19, floods in various regions around Australia, the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in Shanghai, and the extent to which these disruptions would add additional costs to the BGA business. 
• Noted the strengthening of international dairy prices and the increased competition for milk in Australia being reflected in the payment by the majority of dairy companies, including BGA, of higher farm gate milk prices. 
• Provided guidance of normalised EBITDA for FY2022 of $175 to $190 million. 

The July Update provided a further update on these matters:  
• Commenting that BGA has been able “_to pass through many of the increased business costs it experienced in FY2022 in the form of higher wholesale and retail prices or mitigate the impact through various initiatives_.” 
• Noting that there is “_ongoing cost pressure of robust competition amongst dairy processors for milk referred to in the April Update_.” 
• Providing guidance of normalised EBITDA for FY2023 of $160 to $190 million. 

So, who's come a-nibbling? 
_The agrifoods unit of *Tattarang*, Andrew Forest's investment arm,  has lifted its stake in Bega to 11.5 per cent after buying an additional $15 million in shares, acquiring an extra 4.55 million shares in Bega, continuing the steady accumulation of a holding in the food group that began nine months ago. The substantial shareholder notice to the ASX late on Friday showed it had lifted its holding from a previous 10 per cent stake__._


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## peter2 (17 August 2022)

The current chart of *BGA* is _screaming _buy (to me) and I'm very tempted. But *BGA* has frequent large selloffs (down days) in the past year. The subconscious buy is stilled by the conscious no. This is one situation that I can't win. I'll just note it here for posterity. 

I'm aware of the recent purchase by Tattarang (agri-foods division). This is a plus. 






Combo portfolio would buy 6600 at 3.82, conservative iSL at 3.50, although I'd probably sell at 3.60.


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## Porper (17 August 2022)

peter2 said:


> The current chart of *BGA* is _screaming _buy (to me) and I'm very tempted. But *BGA* has frequent large selloffs (down days) in the past year. The subconscious buy is stilled by the conscious no. This is one situation that I can't win. I'll just note it here for posterity.
> 
> I'm aware of the recent purchase by Tattarang (agri-foods division). This is a plus.
> 
> ...



I looked at this last night. A good recovery play i.m.o. 

Has hit a multi-year zone of support and reversed. The latter stages of the sell-off coincided with an increase in volume as well. Volume tapered off during the bounce which isn't ideal....could change though.

I don't hold...yet


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## mullokintyre (26 August 2022)

Bega full year out.
Bit of a mixed bag, sales up significantly due to the various takeovers, but  EBITDA down for the same reason.
Managed to pay debt down some 60mill, which is good  news in this increasing  cost of debt environment.
Operating cash flows good, which support debt reduction, capex and  dividend payments.
Still maintaining dividends, so I am happy with the performance, even if the market may not.
Mick


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## debtfree (26 August 2022)

And away it goes!


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## Dona Ferentes (26 August 2022)

debtfree said:


> And away it goes!



Interesting, because on the surface, the news was all bad.  But I guess it wasn't worse, so we had a relief rally/ short covering action? 
I guess the earlier July updates, themselves a reaction against a poor market, milk price rises, and 'wall of worry', calmed things, enough.

reported a 69 per cent decline in profit after tax to $24.2 million, impacted by COVID-19, rising costs and supply chain disruptions.
Normalised profit after tax rose to $46.2 million, up from 39.6 million in FY21. 
Normalised EBITDA, which excludes the integration costs of the Lion Dairy and Drinks business and the benefits of the Reckitt contract termination, rose to $180.1 million.
Bega confirmed July earnings guidance normalised EBITDA range of $160 million to $190 million.


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## rcw1 (26 August 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Bega full year out.
> Bit of a mixed bag, sales up significantly due to the various takeovers, but  EBITDA down for the same reason.
> Managed to pay debt down some 60mill, which is good  news in this increasing  cost of debt environment.
> Operating cash flows good, which support debt reduction, capex and  dividend payments.
> ...



Good evening, 
Particularly enjoyed reading as well, orward guidance, revealing EBITDA of $160m-$190m in FY23 along with the following quote from management, “The benefit of increased consumer prices has started to flow through in FY2023 across all channels and product categories with the full impact to be felt in FY2024."

Kind regards
rcw1


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## Smurf1976 (2 January 2023)

One of my picks for the 2023 full year competition.

It's not an industry I know overly much about but the stock looks reasonably beaten up compared to the actual business so far as I can determine. The nature of the product isn't going out of business, it's the sort of thing that'll survive pretty much any economic conditions.

That's really it. It's due for a rebound I suspect.


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## dyna (3 January 2023)

Dick Smith's autobiography was an interesting read for me, over Xmas. You might recall his OzEmite brand.
Re BGA : Vegemite was only bought back to OZ by Bega Cheese five years ago. American food conglomerate Kraft had owned it for well over half a century , since just before Elvis was born, in fact. And they had changed the taste of it many times  over the years , without telling anyone !
Dick's no fan of  ALDI ,paying only half the wages turnover with 50 %  less  workers than its Woolies and Coles rivals. Nobody knows what the Germans pay their Argentine  growers and  factory hands making cheap Aldi own-brand peanut butter , either.


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## frugal.rock (3 January 2023)

dyna said:


> Nobody knows what the Germans pay their Argentine growers and factory hands making cheap Aldi own-brand peanut butter , either.



Are you nuts?
Everyone knows what... peanut's 😅


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## JohnKelly (7 January 2023)

dyna said:


> Dick Smith's autobiography was an interesting read for me, over Xmas. You might recall his OzEmite brand.
> Re BGA : Vegemite was only bought back to OZ by Bega Cheese five years ago. American food conglomerate Kraft had owned it for well over half a century , since just before Elvis was born, in fact. And they had changed the taste of it many times  over the years , without telling anyone !
> Dick's no fan of  ALDI ,paying only half the wages turnover with 50 %  less  workers than its Woolies and Coles rivals. Nobody knows what the Germans pay their Argentine  growers and  factory hands making cheap Aldi own-brand peanut butter , either.



Leave the Vegemite brand alone, this is silly and is causing confusion,

View attachment Vegemite.png


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## dyna (7 January 2023)

Yeah. I got caught with some of that black muck over Xmas.
More than a little inebriated , I'll admit , but I became aware that I was spreading a very liquid Vegemite over my nicely toasted English muffins.
Lo!  It's effin beef stock !
( Truth be told , it's not bad , either but I won't do it again. )


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## rcw1 (Tuesday at 10:22 AM)

Good morning
What's impressing analysts?​Bega Cheese cut to sell, price target at $3.60: CLSA

Kind regards 
rcw1


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