# Record low unemployment because...



## wayneL (11 June 2007)

<tongue in cheek>...everybody is trading for a living these days.</tongue in cheek>

<flippant>Can we be an economy that buys and sells houses and shares to each other (plus digging up a few shovelfuls of dirt to flog off) indefinitely?</flippant>


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## smoothsatin (11 June 2007)

Not quite that simple, the participation rate continues to increase, not decrease....also as i am sure you are aware the definition of unemployment has continued to get looser over time, so 4.2% headline rate nowadays is nowhere near as close to real full employment as 4.2% headline rate was 40 years ago...


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## Sean K (11 June 2007)

wayneL said:


> ...everybody is trading for a living these days.
> 
> Can we be an economy that buys and sells houses and shares to each other (plus digging up a few shovelfuls of dirt to flog off) indefinitely?



Probably only until the industrialisation of Chindia is complete, and then we'll all go back to being taxi drivers again until Africa industrialises. 
Record low unemployment is probably more complex than just being China's mine, and probably more to do with an international economic sweet spot. 

Is there a new paradigm in international economic markets where knowledge has allowed us to craft systems that will prevent cycles? I doubt it. There will be an economic cycle surely. The next bust is just a sneeze away perhaps. Then, it'll be back to the cab. Or, the Army in my case.


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## wayneL (11 June 2007)

kennas said:


> Probably only until the industrialisation of Chindia is complete, and then we'll all go back to being taxi drivers again until Africa industrialises.
> Record low unemployment is probably more complex than just being China's mine, and probably more to do with an international economic sweet spot.
> 
> Is there a new paradigm in international economic markets where knowledge has allowed us to craft systems that will prevent cycles? I doubt it. There will be an economic cycle surely. The next bust is just a sneeze away perhaps. *Then, it'll be back to the cab.* Or, the Army in my case.



'cept we'll all have to know Mandarin and Urdu.

I'm thinking keep enough dosh to buy a 2nd hand limo, and with the above language skills, should be able scratch by in at least a little bit of style until the next boom. 

Just hope that boom isn't caused by a critical mass of U238 clapping together.


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## Sean K (11 June 2007)

wayneL said:


> 'cept we'll all have to know Mandarin and Urdu.
> 
> I'm thinking keep enough dosh to buy a 2nd hand limo, and with the above language skills, should be able scratch by in at least a little bit of style until the next boom.
> 
> Just hope that boom isn't caused by a critical mass of U238 clapping together.



And hopefully Gero still exists after all the miners have left after they've dug everything up, so you have some people to drive around in the limo.


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## Spaghetti (11 June 2007)

I see a problem where a truck driver in a mine earns $170,000 pa yet a bus driver ferrying our kids around gets $14 an hour.


probably bite us on the bum one day.


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## reece55 (11 June 2007)

Spaghetti said:


> I see a problem where a truck driver in a mine earns $170,000 pa yet a bus driver ferrying our kids around gets $14 an hour.
> 
> 
> probably bite us on the bum one day.




Spag
I think that definitely is the answer here - imbalances last only so long - I won't predict the end, but I will say that eventually it will cease......

However, with the casualisation of the workforce, you can't really trust our unemployment numbers anyway. I mean, the stats mean that you only have to be employed to count as an employed member of our workforce, regardless of whether you are getting the hours and/or the conditions you require. Plus, if you are not actively looking for work, you aren't counted....... What a crock.....

Cheers


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## Spaghetti (11 June 2007)

It preys on my mind quite a bit, the imbalance.

Costello is very proud of his record yet he never denies that keeping wages down reduces inflation. Yet wages for many have not been kept down. Just for some, well many. The wages a government can control are the ones outside market forces. Usually essential services. So we have had pressure applied only to keep down lower paid jobs, not all wages. Little wonder there is low unemployment.

I hear people worry that if they vote labor, unions will make a comeback, but surely if people are underpaid it will be what drives an union comeback?

My belief is that people have been living the high life off low interest rates and home equity, rather than wages. 

I think it all will bite us on the bum one day


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## Rafa (11 June 2007)

I got no idea where to post this, probably shoudl be in a labor liberal thead, or most probably in the one on how does the IR laws effect you, but it also could be on the one about Rudd on the stockmarket...

so mods, feel free to move if deemed appropriate...
But...

Did anyone see the 7:30 report tonight on the AWA employees actually speaking  about work conditions and safety issues at the BHP mine in WA???

Finally, good to hear from the real people on AWA rather than that usual beat up, take off AWA and the boom will end brigade 

Funny how a unionised workforce has had not negative effects on the resource boom in queensland.


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## arminius (11 June 2007)

something is seriously wrong with a system that sees a stop go traffic controller being paid $50 bucks an hour. ever wonder why new roads cost taxpayers so much. 
good luck to them, but somethings gotta give.


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## Sprinter79 (12 June 2007)

Has anyone got a stat on 'under employment'? I can't be arsed looking hahah

That would be a much better, albeit less sensational, indicator than general unemployment.


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## --B-- (12 June 2007)

smoothsatin said:


> Not quite that simple, the participation rate continues to increase, not decrease....also as i am sure you are aware the definition of unemployment has continued to get looser over time, so 4.2% headline rate nowadays is nowhere near as close to real full employment as 4.2% headline rate was 40 years ago...




yes 40 years ago is correct, however for the past 4 decades unemployment has been measured using the guidelines set out by the International Labour Organisation (ILO). 

The myth that the current govt has fiddled with the measure of unemployment is exactly that - a myth.


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## moXJO (12 June 2007)

arminius said:


> something is seriously wrong with a system that sees a stop go traffic controller being paid $50 bucks an hour. ever wonder why new roads cost taxpayers so much.
> good luck to them, but somethings gotta give.




 My brother was talking to me about this just the other day. Seems you have to travel a bit and looks mind numbingly boring. Apparently people run them over all the time as well.Maybe to see if money falls out of them? Is that the real rate or the someone at the pub told me rate? Is it consistent 6 days a week 8 hour days work  at $50 per hour or every now and then?


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## Santob (13 June 2007)

Good luck speaking Urdu*, I'll stick to Mandarin and Hindi.

*albeit Urdu and Hindi are fairly similar.


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## Santob (13 June 2007)

moXJO said:


> My brother was talking to me about this just the other day. Seems you have to travel a bit and looks mind numbingly boring. Apparently people run them over all the time as well.Maybe to see if money falls out of them? Is that the real rate or the someone at the pub told me rate? Is it consistent 6 days a week 8 hour days work  at $50 per hour or every now and then?




They don't get PAID at $50 an hour - they are BILLED by the firm thats paying for them as $50 per hour - thats the standard basic rate applied when costing in Non-specialist Labour on construction projects.


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## arminius (13 June 2007)

my niece's partner. day work, mon/fri  is 20-30 or something. nite work and w/ends is at least $50/hr. i think more. is currently out bush for a month on a job. a month away from home and 2 month old baby. will tell you what the month earned him if you like.
 he is 6 hrs drive away. im wondering why cant they hire some casuals down there, for half the price. its all cost that comes back.


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## Mofra (13 June 2007)

wayneL said:


> <flippant>Can we be an economy that buys and sells houses and shares to each other (plus digging up a few shovelfuls of dirt to flog off) indefinitely?</flippant>



WayneL, given the 40% (estimated) overseas ownership of domestic bourse, we can quite comfortably live selling shares to foreign interests as well as to each other.

Remember, bubbles never burst....


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## wayneL (13 June 2007)

Mofra said:


> Remember, bubbles never burst....



Oh yeah! I forgot.


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## moXJO (14 June 2007)

Santob said:


> They don't get PAID at $50 an hour - they are BILLED by the firm thats paying for them as $50 per hour - thats the standard basic rate applied when costing in Non-specialist Labour on construction projects.




No its paid $50 an hour was talking to a fellow that was swiveling the stick down here.They traveled 6 hours to work in a place where unemployment is high and you could have hired an army of lolly pop men for $12 bucks and a pie.


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## tech/a (14 June 2007)

Ive been watching the "bursting bubble" discussion since inception of this site.

There seems to be an obsession with "why,when,how".

Yet few seem to be taking full advantage of 2 yrs of fantastic opportunity and 8 yrs (if youve been a member of other sites Reefcap).
Property,business and trading.

Simply become involved and set risk stratagies and enjoy!!


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## wayneL (14 June 2007)

tech/a said:


> Ive been watching the "bursting bubble" discussion since inception of this site.
> 
> There seems to be an obsession with "why,when,how".
> 
> ...



Discussion on bursting bubbles certainly does not mean a/ an obsession b/ not trading the current conditions to the long side, that's a straw man argument.

However, nobody with half a brain can deny that there IS a bubble in both asset prices and credit. There is a real possibility of systemic financial failure in the world economy... ever heard of "cascading cross defaults?"

Discussion of such is centered around protecting oneself from the eventuality (or whatever other straw breaks the camel's back), perhaps profiting from it, and certainly looking forward to the next cycle.

We need only look back to the several price shocks of the last century to see so many bull market geniuses wiped out by the same.

Short of paranoia, it is valid and valuable discussion and anyone who doesn't think so, has their head rather impossibly stuck where there is no sunlight. 

Cheers


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## Santob (14 June 2007)

Plus lets not forget that Howard has reduced the size of the goalposts in his definition of "unemployed"..no wonder there's fewer scored now.


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## Wysiwyg (14 June 2007)

Think that after I`ve  experienced 10 + years in the markets I won`t be still flying around with my finger on the eject button.

What gives with the nervous pilot thing?


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## Spaghetti (14 June 2007)

I lived in the US for quite a number of years and I can see us headed that way. Hasn't hurt the economy of the US having working poor, perhaps even assisted it. Well sure of it.

It may make us all richer, but some of our grandkids may find themselves on the wrong side of the tracks. Well sure of it.


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## wayneL (14 June 2007)

Wysiwyg said:


> Think that after I`ve  experienced 10 + years in the markets I won`t be still flying around with my finger on the eject button.
> 
> What gives with the nervous pilot thing?



Would your finger be hovering over the button if you knew you were leaking fuel  and the oil pressure was low?

A good pilot doesn't just fly. He is hopefully cognizant of each and every risk that may end his life and takes steps to mitigate. When the fuel is low or there is a huge thunderstorm, he will put down ASAP in order to avert disaster.

A really good pilot will put down where he knows there is a good pub and old girlfriend.


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## arminius (14 June 2007)

i dunno mate, i think its more of an awareness thing. im not an economist, but there are unprecedented forces at work that will one day bring things to a head. 
personally, and just keep this between you and me, i think everything will go swimmingly until at least after the bejeing. beijing. next olympics, whence things will begin again. supply and demand.
the example of lolypop men is just an indication that things are unbalanced in our society and in my experience, things that are off-balance cannot be maintained.
eg: kids in school may think, why study my guts out when i can leave now and earn buku dollars driving, or stopping trucks. down the track, we as a nation may have a shortfall of highly educated people to keep us in first world status, especially considering the exporting of our intelligence via thousands of full-fee paying asian students.


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## Wysiwyg (14 June 2007)

wayneL said:


> Would your finger be hovering over the button if you knew you were leaking fuel  and the oil pressure was low?
> 
> A good pilot doesn't just fly. He is hopefully cognizant of each and every risk that may end his life and takes steps to mitigate. When the fuel is low or there is a huge thunderstorm, he will put down ASAP in order to avert disaster.




We all have the would , if , hope , may , when , etcetera in our evaluations of the situations.This is good.

Reminds me of Richard Bach this bit.If only I could fly.



> A really good pilot will put down where he knows there is a good pub and old girlfriend.





:topic ooops, sorry.


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## wayneL (14 June 2007)

Seeing as we seem to be into allegories tonight, the best one for the current situation is the RMS Titanic.

The biggest, fastest, most luxurious, most prestigious ship, with the richest and most famous passengers of its time. It sailed out on its maiden voyage amid much fanfare with really one overriding gaol. To navigate the Trans-Atlantic crossing in record time. 

Ignoring all the warnings of icebergs on the more northerly course, she failed to either a) slow down or b) take a longer more southerly route. Not only that, apparently the ships hull steel had been improperly tempered, making it more brittle.

Both ignoring, and/or incognizant of the real risks of pursuing the record under the prevailing conditions, they felt invincible, indestructible, unsinkable.

They were wrong. The rest, as they say, is history.

Had they have just slowed down and/ or taken a different route, they wouldn't have had the gold star of breaking the record on its maiden voyage, but the Titanic may have sailed on gloriously for years and may even have still been around today.


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## Julia (14 June 2007)

arminius said:


> eg: kids in school may think, why study my guts out when i can leave now and earn buku dollars driving, or stopping trucks. s.




I don't think so.  There will always be the multi-generational belief in the value of education, not just for the sake of acquiring a job.
Just as there will always be multi-generational layers of people on the dole who never have any intention of getting themselves either an education or a job.


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## wayneL (15 June 2007)

More allegorical maritime misadventures.

One of the best songs ever written (IMHO)

The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald - Gordon Lightfoot


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## Santob (15 June 2007)

Australia is and will continue to be the richest third world country on the planet, the first world lifestyle has only existed because of the way that the wealth has been managed and distributed.. If Australia chooses to continue heading down a lassiez faire path (ala USA style, where 5% of the population controls 90% of the wealth) don't expect to be able to continue living in the precious first world standards that we have.

My five pesos worth.


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## Rafa (15 June 2007)

Santob said:


> Australia is and will continue to be the richest third world country on the planet, the first world lifestyle has only existed because of the way that the wealth has been managed and distributed..




that is a fascinating point... 
this certainly can't go on forever...


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## Wysiwyg (15 June 2007)

Santob said:


> Australia is and will continue to be the richest third world country on the planet, the first world lifestyle has only existed because of the way that the wealth has been managed and distributed.. If Australia chooses to continue heading down a lassiez faire path (ala USA style, where 5% of the population controls 90% of the wealth) don't expect to be able to continue living in the precious first world standards that we have.
> 
> My five pesos worth.




How`s it goin Santob.......To the point .... what makes Australia a third world country?My lifestyle hasn`t varied to any great extent in the last 26 years of working life.If anything the recent bull run in the rock movers has opened up more opportunities to those who want more.Don`t understand the third world tag for oz.


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## arminius (15 June 2007)

julia,
there will always be a small percentage, like you say, who will grow up and live on welfare. we will discount them in this discusion like we will discount the small percantage at the other end of the socio-economic scale.
there seems to be a consensus here that things are not quite right. 

personally, i think the powers that be are trying to dumb down our society. it makes us easier to control, easier for them to do whatever they like. 

i know some right wingers will say 'yeah right', but think about it for a while. media and education policy are the key. 

what was the original question? oh yeah...the economy is on resource steroids. thank you asia.


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## moXJO (15 June 2007)

arminius said:


> julia,
> there will always be a small percentage, like you say, who will grow up and live on welfare. we will discount them in this discusion like we will discount the small percantage at the other end of the socio-economic scale.
> there seems to be a consensus here that things are not quite right.
> 
> ...





And wasn’t there an over supply of IT professionals during the last tech boom. I think its more a case of supply and demand. There is a shortage of tradies and other blue collar workers due to the mining boom atm thus boosting wages. And I’m sure the geologist, engineers etc are making a killing.


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## Wysiwyg (15 June 2007)

moXJO said:


> And wasn’t there an over supply of IT professionals during the last tech boom. I think its more a case of supply and demand. There is a shortage of tradies and other blue collar workers due to the mining boom atm thus boosting wages. And I’m sure the geologist, engineers etc are making a killing.





Something to note out of the rise in wages to compensate for *GST* and other fringe taxes is that the workers wages will not decline.When things return to normal workers will compete for jobs but wages will not decline!


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## chops_a_must (15 June 2007)

moXJO said:


> And I’m sure the geologist, engineers etc are making a killing.



Not necessarily.

A lot of geologists are leaving because they are getting paid less than the drillers etc. that they work with, despite the difference in education levels (this was the case at BHP's Cannington mine in Queensland as I understand it). Just more evidence of the value Australia puts on education.


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## explod (15 June 2007)

Because some of us speak of doom does not say that as traders we are not in the meantime benefiting from strong tends and good short term fundamentals.  Where opportunity knocks... so to speak.

However the real big doom/gloom is that if the poor seasonal conditions throughout the world in agricultural areas continue there will be no more bred to feed even the employed.   When everyone in China and India have a motor car (and they are entitiled because we did) there will be no air to breathe.   Those times my friends are much closer than anyone wants to admit.   JMHO


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## moXJO (15 June 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Not necessarily.
> 
> A lot of geologists are leaving because they are getting paid less than the drillers etc. that they work with, despite the difference in education levels (this was the case at BHP's Cannington mine in Queensland as I understand it). Just more evidence of the value Australia puts on education.




Is that a case that there’s more risk in one then the other. An experienced driller would probably be paid more then a nub geologist. Just as a good geologist would be paid well to be retained by the company. Having that piece of paper doesn’t make you a master of all or a good worker. Nor does it guarantee good  pay. My experience though is that they are paid very well for the amount of work, hours and conditions compared to those drillers.


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## Mofra (16 June 2007)

Wysiwyg said:


> Something to note out of the rise in wages to compensate for *GST* and other fringe taxes is that the workers wages will not decline.When things return to normal workers will compete for jobs but wages will not decline!



No need to compensate for the GST, given it did replace a whole host of other indirect taxes. Wages as a whole may not decline, however there will always be variations within different work sectors.


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## Santob (16 June 2007)

Wysiwyg said:


> How`s it goin Santob.......To the point .... what makes Australia a third world country?My lifestyle hasn`t varied to any great extent in the last 26 years of working life.If anything the recent bull run in the rock movers has opened up more opportunities to those who want more.Don`t understand the third world tag for oz.




Australia is a big minepit and a big farm - primary industries, primary exports. We may as well be reliant on sugar and coffee and exporting that.


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