# KZL - Kagara Limited



## Kauri (6 November 2005)

mmm  Decision time...  have been holding since 6 Oct @ $1.50.... descending triangles do at times break to the upside..then again the trend line seems a touch too steep to hold... monday will reveal all I think


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## Kauri (6 November 2005)

*Re: KZL  Kagara Zinc*

P+F gives it a bit more leeway....


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## RichKid (6 November 2005)

*Re: KZL  Kagara Zinc*

Hey Kauri,
I like this co. 
The pattern could even be considered a flag or pennant, volume would reveal more imo. I'm looking at Zn co's too and this one looks ok but again we need to know how this pattern will pan out, the steepness is a bit of a worry but it's still a strong trend and we should assume it'll continue in force until there is overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Problem is if you don't hold already that provides little comfort for an entry. Could easily retest the previous high, not sure what price level that is from the chart but it's way down below.


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## Kauri (8 November 2005)

*Re: KZL  Kagara Zinc*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> mmm Decision time... have been holding since 6 Oct @ $1.50.... descending triangles do at times break to the upside..then again the trend line seems a touch too steep to hold... monday will reveal all I think




   Break down vol wasn't strong enough to lure me into shorts.... might have missed this boat.


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## Ann (3 January 2006)

*Re: KZL  Kagara Zinc*

Hi Kauri,

I hope you kept hold of this one.

... a chart for KZL. I have drawn an overhead trendline which may in turn become a support trendline if there is a retrace in the price. It is a slightly different way to look at a chart when the bulls are running so fast.


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## michael_selway (3 January 2006)

*Re: KZL  Kagara Zinc*



			
				Ann said:
			
		

> Hi Kauri,
> 
> I hope you kept hold of this one.
> 
> ... a chart for KZL. I have drawn an overhead trendline which may in turn become a support trendline if there is a retrace in the price. It is a slightly different way to look at a chart when the bulls are running so fast.




Hi Ann

Thanks, nice charts

btw do u know whether KZL partly or fully hedge zinc prices?

Thanks

MS


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## Ann (3 January 2006)

*Re: KZL  Kagara Zinc*

Sorry Michael,

No. You may have to ask one of the clever blokes like Brerewallabi....he would know that sort of stuff right off the top of his head. I think he is Mr Zinc here!

I am a chartist first and a fundo second...close second!


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## brerwallabi (3 January 2006)

*Re: KZL  Kagara Zinc*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hi Ann
> 
> Thanks, nice charts
> 
> ...



Accounts published last financial year show Kagara is not exposed to hedging - zero. Its a low cost producer and even if their were some hedging it would still make good money but with the price of zinc where it is know KZL will make a motza. Low debt too and still more upside in my opinion.

“Do not rely on this post as being a forecaster of future share price, please do your own research”


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## brerwallabi (3 January 2006)

*Re: KZL  Kagara Zinc*

New high again today @ $2.44 a 7% increase. ZFX is not the only zinc producer in Australia, people are now starting to look around at other opportunities with zinc producers. PEM and CBH also on the move up today they are producers not explorers and are well placed for the upside in zinc. Zinc, the dot.com boom of 2006 lol.


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## michael_selway (3 January 2006)

*Re: KZL  Kagara Zinc*



			
				brerwallabi said:
			
		

> New high again today @ $2.44 a 7% increase. ZFX is not the only zinc producer in Australia, people are now starting to look around at other opportunities with zinc producers. PEM and CBH also on the move up today they are producers not explorers and are well placed for the upside in zinc. Zinc, the dot.com boom of 2006 lol.




Thanks 

lol actually to be more accurate, zinc the dot.com boom of 2008 imo (based on current forecasts)!


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## GreatPig (31 January 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Some serious RSI divergence showing on this one at the moment.

GP


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## TheAnalyst (31 January 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

yer, i have had me eyes on this one but the sudden jumps cause me to sit on the sidelines and wait for another opportunity.


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## nizar (31 January 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

analyst if u think zinc price can hold up till next year check out TZN (feb07 first production) or AIM (jun07 first production)


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## TheAnalyst (31 January 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> analyst if u think zinc price can hold up till next year check out TZN (feb07 first production) or AIM (jun07 first production)




thx nizar i will do as soon as i come back from my walk and coffee from mcdonalds....yer zinc is high..have you got a researched opinion on it as yesterday i was looking for some books on trading bear markets...just a pre emptive strategy to start catching up on again


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## nizar (31 January 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> thx nizar i will do as soon as i come back from my walk and coffee from mcdonalds....yer zinc is high..have you got a researched opinion on it as yesterday i was looking for some books on trading bear markets...just a pre emptive strategy to start catching up on again




i been looking at zinc lately and it seems to be the one metal that is seeing lack of supply, as seen by LME stocks falling by approx 2000tonnes per day for some time now...

I was doing some research this morning as this is wat iv come up with so far..

"Zinc prices in the December quarter hit 16-year highs and the company (ZFX) realised an average price of $2225 per tonne in the December quarter, up 29.4 per cent on the September quarter.
Zinc stocks on the London Metals Exchange fell by 35 per cent over the December quarter and a shortfall of about 400,000 tonnes of the metal is expected this year"

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=65960

Demand is also said to be robust, with china being a net importer whereas for several years it was an exporter, and demand for there more than compensating for declines in US demand due to cuts in production from Ford and GM..

In 2006, world mine production is expected to continue to remain constrained, rising by only 2 per cent to 10 million tonnes. 

In 2006, world zinc consumption is forecast to grow by 2.5 per cent to 10.9 million tonnes. 

As a reflection of the current imbalance between zinc mine and metal output capacity, annual zinc treatment charges fell from an estimated US$210 a tonne in early 2000 to approximately US$115 a tonne in 2005 as smelters competed for scarce concentrate feed. Treatment charges are the fees charged by smelting operators to convert zinc concentrates to metal. In late 2005, chronic shortages in zinc concentrates resulted in spot treatment charges in China and India reportedly falling to negative levels for the first time ever.

http://www.abareconomics.com/AC_Mini_Site/htmlversion/metals/zinc.html

LONDON Zinc prices have risen so fast that Robin Bhar, a metals industry analyst for 22 years, is about to raise his forecast for the second time in two months. 

"We've all been left behind," said Bhar, who works in London with UBS. "It's just phenomenal. No one in their wildest imagination thought it would get to these levels." 

Zinc has almost doubled since July 15 to $2,250 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, where it traded at record levels for 11 straight days this month. Prices may stay high as China increases imports and mining companies struggle to expand production. 

Another reason why zinc price may rise and this goes for all base metals...

Pension funds and speculators are joining the rally in zinc and metals including copper, aluminum and gold, seeking an alternative to stocks and bonds. 

Money held by funds tracking commodity-linked indexes will rise 38 percent this year to $110 billion, according to Barclays Capital. Hermes Pensions Management, which oversees Britain's largest pension fund, said two weeks ago that it would invest £1 billion, or about $1.8 billion, of BT Group's retirement plan in commodities including metals. 

"Two, three, four, five years ago, we would have seen that with the hedge funds, but not the big state pension funds," Bob Diamond, chief executive of Barclays Capital, said last week. "We are seeing an asset class shift." 

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/29/bloomberg/bxcom.php

Now looking at spot prices, copper, aluminium, lead and nickel, all are up. But the LME stocks (supplies) are also increasing for these metals. For zinc, prices are increasing, but LME stocks also decreasing...

out of the base metals, zinc price began 2 rally in mid2004, while with copper, lead and aluminium began rising was mid2003. Nickel rallied from jan02-jan04 and since then has been increasingly volatile as LME stocks have increased....

the conclusion?

no idea, but its more likely than other base metals to keep rising imo...
according to ZFX, lead prices are expected to soften this year...

anywayz, do u research, post wat u come up with..

cheers and good luck


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## mime (31 January 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I heard zinc is going to be the next major mover. Probably worth holding.


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## TheAnalyst (31 January 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

i think that sums it up a bit...but can you go with the zinifix story that prices will soften as we know it is putting pressure on the margins of steel producers such as bluescope steel and as we can now see takeovers and mergers appearing to increase their survival rates.


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## Ann (31 January 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Hi Guys,

Just a chart if I may........


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## michael_selway (31 January 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Now looking at spot prices, copper, aluminium, lead and nickel, all are up. But the LME stocks (supplies) are also increasing for these metals. For zinc, prices are increasing, but LME stocks also decreasing...
> 
> out of the base metals, zinc price began 2 rally in mid2004, while with copper, lead and aluminium began rising was mid2003. Nickel rallied from jan02-jan04 and since then has been increasingly volatile as LME stocks have increased....
> 
> the conclusion?




exactly, Zinc appears to be the only base metal, that fundmentally prices should rise in the near future, next 12 months at least

The others are mostly speculative atm. Altough LME supplies have been increasing in recent months, they are coming off 5yr lows, thus prices are still very high atm. So most probably their prices will fall in the next 12 months

However I have notced that Copper Supplies have dropped a bit in the last week or so!


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## clowboy (18 April 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

this is fast becoming the one that got away...........


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## michael_selway (18 April 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				clowboy said:
			
		

> this is fast becoming the one that got away...........




yeah man, not only KZL

ZFX, PEM, TZN, CBH...


Runaway trains, might have to take a chance and pick some up at the next station but at a higher cost










thx

MS


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## clowboy (18 April 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

well I am on the ZFX train (got a whole carriage) so not worried about that one bolting out of the station (although ZFX is the slowest moving train of them all (no doubt becuase it's the one im on)) but it's the cariages on the other trains (that are overtaking me) that I'm crying over.  Although we always want to be on the train that we arnt and never the one we are on for some reason


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## nizar (18 April 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				clowboy said:
			
		

> this is fast becoming the one that got away...........




Its never too late to get on...   

I actually topped up last week at $4+, this one still has a long way 2 go...

But yeh, i know how u feel, it feels like only yesterday when i was deciding whether or not 2 buy TZN @ 74c !

(and yeh, i decided not to, wasnt confident enough in zinc prices holding up until production and that time was also when zinc spot price went from 1.08 to 89c, so didnt have the balls to jump in)


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## michael_selway (18 April 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Its never too late to get on...
> 
> I actually topped up last week at $4+, this one still has a long way 2 go...
> 
> ...




Yeah same, its was actually quite scary back then i remember, didnt sell though which was brave, ZFX that is   

Zinc Producers: ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN, CBH (wish I could get the whole set of these earlier)
Soon to be: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL

Thing is, the "begining of the end" hasnt even come yet, and who knows how high Zinc Prices will go if this actually occurs (LME stocks down to 0), and how long it will last...

thx

MS


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## nizar (18 April 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> Yeah same, its was actually quite scary back then i remember, didnt sell though which was brave, ZFX that is
> 
> Zinc Producers: ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN, CBH (wish I could get the whole set of these earlier)
> Soon to be: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL
> ...




yeh i could tell u hold ZFX through the ramping...   

are u sure TZN is producing yet?

AIM target production is june 2007 yeh? I dont know if zinc price can maintain these levels till then but of course u dont have to hold all the way...


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## nizar (18 April 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

And look at this



> Grupo Mexico has declared force majeure on some refined zinc deliveries in May because of a strike at its San Martin mine in Zacatecas, central Mexico, a senior company executive said Monday.
> 
> Normally Grupo Mexico produces about 100,000 mt/year of refined zinc and 20,000 mt/year of concentrate, company vice president Juan Rebolledo said. But a serious electrical fault put its zinc refinery in San Luis Potosi, also in central Mexico, out of action in January and 50% of its normal production is unlikely to be restored until late May or early June, with full production restored in August, he added.




http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=4668


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## michael_selway (26 April 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060421/pdf/3wdwt4l8qp9zj.pdf

Quaterly out, what do u guys think? Better or Worse then expected?

thx

MS


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## nizar (16 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

rederob, tech and others holding KZL

i checked KZL on the asx b4 and got a pleasant suprise (not the price, LOL) when i saw the presentation

i was aware they were growing copper production but until now i didnt hear about growth in zinc production, but on page 3, 50ktonnes in FY2007 and 100ktonnes in FY2009 compared to 34ktonnes this year FY2006

(copper growth: 7ktonnes this year, 30ktonnes in FY2007 and 45ktonnes in FY2009)

Looks like they are having a rest in 2008, LOL


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## michael_selway (16 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> rederob, tech and others holding KZL
> 
> i checked KZL on the asx b4 and got a pleasant suprise (not the price, LOL) when i saw the presentation
> 
> ...




hehe yeah was wondering why no 2008?

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060516/pdf/3wrst0n28zhs0.pdf

Hey nizar, in terms of production volume growth, is OXR more or KZL in 2007 and 2008?

thx

MS


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## nizar (16 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I dont know if OXR will see appreciable production growth until Prominent Hill starts production 2nd half of 2008 and it will produce:

100ktonnes copper pa
130koz gold pa

currently gold from sepon is about 170koz pa, sepon copper 60ktonnes pa
golden grove zinc 140ktonnes pa (but 1st quarter was 40k so maybe higher?) and copper i cant remember

For full details, the BFS is supposed to be ready by mid-2006

didnt really answer ur question tho sorry


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## rederob (16 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> rederob, tech and others holding KZL
> i checked KZL on the asx b4 and got a pleasant suprise (not the price, LOL) when i saw the presentation



Nizar
I am not happy with KZL's "collar" on copper prices, but at least into 2007 they should do OK.
Luckily KZL do not hedge zinc - if they did, I would not touch them.
Over the next few months I am closing out of my long term holds where they are too heavily hedged to take advantage of spot (especially where gold is concerned).
I had a buy order on BHP, but tonight I will withdraw it as I think there is more adrenalin rush in midcap producers - can't believe BHP did not fall more than it did today, can you?
I added to only 2 of my existing positions today after they filled "gaps" - KZL & OXR.
I believe these companies will easily surpass their highs of last week as both will report astonishing profits at the end of the financial year, but have even bigger bottom lines next.
I would not have bought more if I was not confident about the fundamentals for copper and zinc: In the simplest terms, they are both in very high demand, and extremely tight supply.
Cap this with ongoing global industrial production that keeps getting revised upwards and the formula for medium term success is complete.


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## michael_selway (17 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> I dont know if OXR will see appreciable production growth until Prominent Hill starts production 2nd half of 2008 and it will produce:
> 
> 100ktonnes copper pa
> 130koz gold pa
> ...




Oh ic, yeah 2008 might be a bit late for the OXR

KZL growth does look promising actually



> Strong growth in zinc production:
> 34,000t – FY06; 50,000t – FY07; 100,000t – FY09
> 
> Increasing copper production:
> 7,000t – FY06; 30,000t – FY07; 45,000t – FY09




KZL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 7.2 19.9 61.1 40.1 
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 

thx

MS


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## nizar (17 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

MS - thx for that i wasnt aware earnings for 2007 was upgraded to above 60c. This is what i expected to happen immediately after the quarterly, but it was only upgraded to 50cps, but at least now they revised it upwards

Seems for all zincers, eps forecast for 2008 is lower than 2007, most likely analysts/brokers do this due to zinc prices falling. I personally think that with KZL, the increase in production would more than offset any fall in spot prices. ie. earnings will be stable

Rederob - regarding the collar on copper prices, to be honest i didnt know what to make of this announcement and whether it was good or bad. But if my memory serves me correctly i remember us rallying 10% on that day on high volumes, 2/3 of the buying happened in the last hour after announcement was made. So the market mustve liked it


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## rederob (17 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Rederob - regarding the collar on copper prices, to be honest i didnt know what to make of this announcement and whether it was good or bad. But if my memory serves me correctly i remember us rallying 10% on that day on high volumes, 2/3 of the buying happened in the last hour after announcement was made. So the market mustve liked it



nizar
What I meant about the copper "collar" is explained below:

*Following the recent upgrade of the Balcooma Copper Reserve and the option to acquire the Thalanga plant being exercised, a hedging program covering 48,000 tonnes of copper has been finalised. This program, which matures in 48 equal instalments commencing January 2007, is a zero cost stepped cap collar arrangement having a floor price of US $1.30 per pound of copper with a cascading ceiling price of US $3.49 per pound of copper for calendar year 2007, US $2.90 for 2008, US $2.36 for 2009 and US $1.81 for 2010. The Company also put in place US $137.6 million of FX protection, at a flat exchange rate of $0.6993 over the 4 year period. Under this arrangement Kagara is guaranteed a minimum price of A $1.86 per pound of copper and receives the spot price for copper up to the ceiling prices.*​Thus, the bad news is that with copper presently well above the 2007 ceiling price, the 12,000 tonnes of copper delivered into the hedging program each year may see significant revenue foregone.
The good news is that the flat forward exchange rate of about 70 cents is likely to work considerably in favour of KZL, as in my estimation the AUD will probably achieve parity with the USD within the 4 year term.


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## coyotte (17 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Anyone know what percentage of copper production is hedged ?  


haven't they also got a hedge on lead ?



Cheers
Coyotte


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## nizar (17 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> Anyone know what percentage of copper production is hedged ?
> 
> 
> haven't they also got a hedge on lead ?
> ...





48ktonnes is hedged
from 2007-2010, KZL will probably produce 150ktonnes+ so this will be about one third.

35k in 2007 and 2008, 45k in 2009 and 2010
(assuming 2008=2007 and 2010=2009)

other figures are from the presentation released yesterday to asx


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## coyotte (17 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> Oh ic, yeah 2008 might be a bit late for the OXR
> 
> KZL growth does look promising actually
> 
> ...







well on those figures @ PE 15
Max present Value $3.00  ?


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## michael_selway (17 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> well on those figures @ PE 15
> Max present Value $3.00  ?




hi how did u get $3

thx

MS


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## nizar (17 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

well coyote as u said
pe of 15

61cents*15 = $9.15

do u want to pay $4 odd now or $9 next year.. LOL as if eps for 2007 will still be 61c by jan07!!

remember about 1-2months ago KZL eps was only 42.2 for 2007

analysts/brokers are always upgrading their earnings due to increasing spot prices of zinc. The spot price will continue to go up as LME supplies are depleting.. Grupo Mexico mine strike and the other strike in Sth America are only adding to supply constraints

will the price stay at $4 and then in one day once it hits january 1st, 2007 jump to $9... NO, it will be gradual, remember their reserves will be upgraded later on this year i feel, plus exploration upside..

future earnings potential is what drives the share price of miners, why do u think paladin is worth $2billion+ when i hasnt earned anything... and BDG... future earnings potential is the driver...


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## coyotte (18 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> hi how did u get $3
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Just going off your footnote about discounting for future RISK

Current Forcast (@ this stage of Fin/year 19.9c p/s @ a PE 15 (max for a Oz mining stock) would put its TODAYS value @ max $3.00  (anything else is forcasting)

 I Hold and probablly will  continue to hold KZL

didn't mean to upseat the applecart

Cheers
Coyotte


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## coyotte (18 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Thanks Nizar 
for the percentages on Copper
really makes the hedge position just a insurance premium 


as far as future earning though --- turn down in US housing starts -- China or no China this must surelly take the edge of builing materials  --- 


Cheers


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## michael_selway (18 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> Just going off your footnote about discounting for future RISK
> 
> Current Forcast (@ this stage of Fin/year 19.9c p/s @ a PE 15 (max for a Oz mining stock) would put its TODAYS value @ max $3.00  (anything else is forcasting)
> 
> ...




yeah as Nizar said, u have to look at current as well as future forecast EPS etc, ie forward PE. When spot prices of zinc goes up or down, forecasts EPS needs to be changed as well for obvious reasons

KZL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 7.2 19.9 61.1 40.1 
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 

61cents*15 = $9.15

Also PE 15 might be too high, considering 2008 will be lower, so conservative 10 maybe:

61cents*10 = $6.10 assuming price stay the same aprox during the periods average

thx

MS


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## nizar (21 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

MS

Earnings upgraded YET AGAIN to 64cps....... 
PEM downgraded, any ideas why (i remember used to be 68c now its 57c)

Surely u must be thinking of an entry into KZL now at these CHEAP prices (not saying that it cant get cheaper) ?


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## clowboy (21 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Yea thats the problem Im facing Nizar, It COULD get cheaper.


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## michael_selway (21 May 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> MS
> 
> Earnings upgraded YET AGAIN to 64cps.......
> PEM downgraded, any ideas why (i remember used to be 68c now its 57c)
> ...




yeah was wondering well, behind all the recent selling and falling metals prices, EPS has been upgraded? maybe they underestimated KZL before

Pem they lowered 2007 one but upgraded 2006 one. Maybe because of fallign prices? IMO both of these companies are still good and they are profitable producers as well

KZL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 7.2 17.6 64.0 41.7 
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 

PEM - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS -2.8 34.1 57.9 47.4 
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 2.0 

thx

MS


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## michael_selway (6 June 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				clowboy said:
			
		

> Yea thats the problem Im facing Nizar, It COULD get cheaper.




Updated

KZL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 7.2 18.0 64.0 58.7 
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 

thx

MS


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## DOC (16 June 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

hi,
i am new to these forums and have just bought my first lot of KZL.  
Thoroughly enjoy reading all your interesting posts, i have found the info very useful. thks.
is anyone aware of KZL's dividend policy, and if they are going to pay dividends anytime in the next few years?

thks again.


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## zzkazu (16 June 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

You can obtain dividend info directly from ASX site.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...panyName=&principalActivity=&industryGroup=NO

seems to be none for this security...

Also I'm thinking considering the low volume I will short (subject to DOW performance tonight) on monday.  Have managed to make good returns trading the bounces.

zzkazu


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## rederob (16 June 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				DOC said:
			
		

> hi,
> i am new to these forums and have just bought my first lot of KZL.
> Thoroughly enjoy reading all your interesting posts, i have found the info very useful. thks.
> is anyone aware of KZL's dividend policy, and if they are going to pay dividends anytime in the next few years?
> ...



From KZL's IPO in 1999:
Dividends
In light of the developmental
nature of Kagara's projects, it is not
expected that Kagara will be in a
position to pay dividends in the
short term.
A dividend policy will be
considered once Kagara has
achieved sustainable profits.
Such a policy will take account of
the cash requirements for future
exploration, development and
growth objectives at that time.
Neither of the last 2 annual reports had any statements on a dividend policy.
I think this year they will have so much cash they will need to set out their pollicy, although they may not offer a dividend until 2007 at earliest given their exploration and development activities are still in full swing.


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## michael_selway (16 June 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> From KZL's IPO in 1999:
> Dividends
> In light of the developmental
> nature of Kagara's projects, it is not
> ...




Yep along with ZFX, PEM, CBH, these should be great companies going forward.

thx

MS


----------



## moses (4 July 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Trading halt pending announcment.

This stock has been falling today...will we find out why?


----------



## moses (4 July 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Upgrade (snipped)

The effect of these upgrades has been to increase the metal inventory at Red Dome and Mungana to 1.53
million ounces of gold, 394,000 tonnes of zinc, 132,000 tonnes of copper, 99,000 tonnes of lead and 26
million ounces of silver. This represents an inventory increase of 51% for gold, 34% for silver, 37% for copper
and 30% for zinc in the last twelve months. Lead inventory decreased by 8%.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 August 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

How high can this liitle beauty go. Nice last three days and still running.


----------



## michael_selway (23 August 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> How high can this liitle beauty go. Nice last three days and still running.




not only KZL, but check out PEm, CBH, ZFX, TZN etc

thx

MS


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 August 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> not only KZL, but check out PEm, CBH, ZFX, TZN etc
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




KZL Is one of my long termers, so considering maybe $ 5.00 realize some profit and leave the other half in. In youre opinion do you think its got a few legs in it for tommorrow.

I got out of ZFX yesterday, love em!


----------



## rederob (23 August 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> KZL Is one of my long termers, so considering maybe $ 5.00 realize some profit and leave the other half in. In youre opinion do you think its got a few legs in it for tommorrow.
> 
> I got out of ZFX yesterday, love em!



Anyone selling zinc equities at the moment should go to the doctor and seek an appropriate prescription.
I suggest zinc tablets for your poor night vision Mr Freebies.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 August 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Anyone selling zinc equities at the moment should go to the doctor and seek an appropriate prescription.
> I suggest zinc tablets for your poor night vision Mr Freebies.




You have to admit its looking tempting though I mean only a month ago I picked them up for $3.90 and the sellers kept topping me up, whats their reasoning then or were they just naive!. Hows KZL's fundamentals considering their market cap, profitts etc and they don't hedge, a real beauty.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (24 August 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> KZL Is one of my long termers, so considering maybe $ 5.00 realize some profit and leave the other half in. In youre opinion do you think its got a few legs in it for tommorrow.
> 
> 
> Still going, even in a sea of red


----------



## michael_selway (24 August 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> You have to admit its looking tempting though I mean only a month ago I picked them up for $3.90 and the sellers kept topping me up, whats their reasoning then or were they just naive!. Hows KZL's fundamentals considering their market cap, profitts etc and they don't hedge, a real beauty.




Yeah forward PE wise its approaching 10, but it doesnt have limited mine life so its still good i guess

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 7.2 19.4 64.5 51.3 
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 

thx

MS


----------



## rederob (24 August 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

MS
I expect at worst KZL will trade at around 6x next year, with progressive quarterly results into 2007 reducing that markedly: I suggest you take the Comsec data with a grain of salt, especially their out-years.  If folk relied on Comsec then ZFX would still be about $3. and OXR about a dollar!!!
KZL's other metal outputs, especially copper, are still ramping up so I expect strong price upside in the medium to long term.  
I say this even if there were to be a bit of hiccup in commodities because the company is still in a growth stage.  Plus, its exploration results have been adding to resources/reserves at a considerable rate, suggesting prospectivity is high.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (28 August 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Still going!,another 5% Today!


----------



## michael_selway (28 August 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Still going!,another 5% Today!




hehe yeah, cant believe it!

thx

MS


----------



## DOC (11 September 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

been on this one since july @3.70, getting a little nervous now though.
Felt like getting out a few times at around 5.40, but still in the game!
for now anyway! 

go zinc!, go copper!, go the rabbits in 2007!

doc


----------



## johnmwu3 (1 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

King Vol could boost Kagara's Mungana 

Michael Quinn
Friday, 29 September 2006

KAGARA Zinc believes drilling has shown it could potentially more than double the size of the high grade King Vol zinc deposit it holds northwest of its Mt Garnet operations in northern Queensland.



King Vol currently contains 1.15 million tonnes grading 18.5% zinc and 1.1% copper, with the recent drilling said to demonstrate the continuity of the mineralisation 200-400m below the current resource. 

Kagara director Joe Treacy told MiningNews.net that mineralisation started at around 75m below surface, with the current resource extending over some 300m. Underground mining of the deposit could begin in 2010, with the company currently developing a decline at the nearby Mungana deposit.

The polymetallic Mungana deposit, which has a zinc equivalent grade of 28% zinc, will feed a new plant (to be built) that's currently pegged to produce 50,000 tonnes of zinc and just under 10,000t of copper at cash costs of around US20-25c per pound of zinc. However an increase at King Vol could see the plant size increased. Production is set to begin in April 2008. 

Meantime Kagara has also flagged a potential extension of "moderate to high grade" zinc mineralisation at the Montevideo prospect, where drilling is now underway and assays awaited.

Kagara is currently spending around $1 million per month on exploration.

Earlier this month Kagara reported a $35.6 million profit in 2005-06 and confirmed earnings growth in the current year to more than $230 million as mine production undergoes major expansion.

Kagara's profit result was built on earnings before tax, interest, depreciation and amortisation of $73.4 million, while the Mt Garnet operations generated a gross profit of $57.4 million.

Revenue of $116.7 million came from polymetallic production of 35,143 tonnes of contained zinc, 2567t of contained copper and 9341t of contained lead, with the new copper circuit yielding 4007t of copper.

In 2006-07 production is forecast at 25,000t of copper, 52,000t of zinc and 15,000t of lead.


----------



## Dukey (9 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

 KZL up nicely over the past few days - now at $5.59  - up 16c today.

Today they report King Vol Resources doubled to 3.3m tonnes at 14% Zn 0.8% Cu, 1.1% Pb & 43 g/t silver. They estimate they could extract 50000t of Zn metal from Chillagoe area for over 10 years !!

Additionally there is a rumour - of some kind of partnership with Sun Metals Zn refinery in Townsville which may float soon. In the current market - that could be one to look out for.

Happy days ahead!!  :


----------



## Dukey (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

WOW - nice open today - up 0.37 to $6.05

Hope this keeps up.  

Anyone watching??


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Dukey said:
			
		

> WOW - nice open today - up 0.37 to $6.05
> 
> Hope this keeps up.
> 
> Anyone watching??




Always, devoted holder & what a gem.


----------



## Dukey (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Indeed - just wish i knew about it a year ago and had got in at those prices instead of my entry at 4.26!!!!

I notice the thread starter (kauri) was thinking of selling at 1.50 a year ago!! hope she held on... and on.... and on...

... if the sun metals partnership is more than a rumour - there should be good synergies for both.

-----------------
edit ... SORRY - my mistake - 'kauri-san' had bought (not sold) at 1.50 !!


----------



## porkpie324 (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

KZL appears to be finding resistance at the $6.00 mark this morning, but what a great trader they have been. Similar in some ways to IGO&MCR just a different metal, all 3 have have been outstanding performers for me.porkpie


----------



## nizar (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Dukey said:
			
		

> WOW - nice open today - up 0.37 to $6.05
> 
> Hope this keeps up.
> 
> Anyone watching??




haha u aint seen nothing yet
i first got in at 2,45 in january this year and I AM STILL BUYING
i dont invest according to "hope" but according to my research this stock is a winner and will be fueled by the critical shortage of zinc metal which the world is facing. The next 3-4months will be interesting.
 

please do ur own research or consult a professional financial advisor before investing.


----------



## nizar (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				porkpie324 said:
			
		

> KZL appears to be finding resistance at the $6.00 mark this morning, but what a great trader they have been. Similar in some ways to IGO&MCR just a different metal, all 3 have have been outstanding performers for me.porkpie




its too early to call that resistance IMO


----------



## Dukey (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I'd be more than happy with 4-5% today - on the back of recent solid gains.  

(of course % more is most welcome)

won't be long before $6 is ancient history for KZL ... (IMO  )


----------



## rederob (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Dukey said:
			
		

> won't be long before $6 is ancient history for KZL ... (IMO  )



Dukey
Learn to think *BIG*.

We have to consign $10 to ancient history (I anticipate that will be before their next annual report at present rate).


----------



## Dukey (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

BIGRed

I think so too.  $10 will be great - and they'll get there alright.
$20 would be even better!!

Step by step.

- down to 5.90 now - but I'll be sticking with this one for a while yet 
(barring some bizarre catastrophe that rerates Zn price to $0.!!)


----------



## michael_selway (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> haha u aint seen nothing yet
> i first got in at 2,45 in january this year and I AM STILL BUYING
> i dont invest according to "hope" but according to my research this stock is a winner and will be fueled by the critical shortage of zinc metal which the world is facing. The next 3-4months will be interesting.
> 
> ...




is KZL or ZFX more leveraged to zinc?

Also KZL has Copper whileZFX has Lead, and lead is doing good atm as well

thx

MS


----------



## Realist (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Can someone please explain why the believe KZL is a better buy than ZFX?

I am confused...


----------



## nizar (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> is KZL or ZFX more leveraged to zinc?
> 
> Also KZL has Copper whileZFX has Lead, and lead is doing good atm as well
> 
> ...




MS - ZFX correlation to zinc spot 97.4% KZL is 96.2% see CBH recent presentation

Realist - ZFX have mine life problems and rely too much on Century. They will maybe double NPAT this year. KZL will go from 35million to about 200million IMO... Their pipeline of growth is far more superior than any other zinc play.

Does ZFX trade on a lower pe multiple? YES. But this is due to century mine life


----------



## Realist (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> MS - ZFX correlation to zinc spot 97.4% KZL is 96.2% see CBH recent presentation
> 
> Realist - ZFX have mine life problems and rely too much on Century. They will maybe double NPAT this year. KZL will go from 35million to about 200million IMO... Their pipeline of growth is far more superior than any other zinc play.
> 
> Does ZFX trade on a lower pe multiple? YES. But this is due to century mine life




Thanks Dude.

I'm thinking of buying ZFX to get the 70c dividend, would I buy wiser to buy KZL?

What is the expected mine life and what is the size of KZL's mine?  Years?

How does that compare to ZFX?


----------



## rederob (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Realist said:
			
		

> I'm thinking of buying ZFX to get the 70c dividend, would I buy wiser to buy KZL?



Don't be silly!
These are the best equities on the market - buy both and have many more happy returns.


----------



## Realist (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Don't be silly!
> These are the best equities on the market - buy both and have many more happy returns.




As good as MRE?    

I've basically doubled my money on MRE including dividends?  When are you thinking of selling MRE if at all?


----------



## Morgan (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Zinifex is a slightly different kettle of fish as they have the Hobart and Port Pirie smelters to value add by making the actual zinc and lead ingots to sell into the world market.


----------



## rederob (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Realist said:
			
		

> As good as MRE?
> 
> I've basically doubled my money on MRE including dividends?  When are you thinking of selling MRE if at all?



MRE is the "Bradbury" of the stock market!
Zinc is not skating on thin ice.


btw - "sell" and "MRE" must only be conjoined with "don't"


----------



## Realist (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> MRE is the "Bradbury" of the stock market!
> Zinc is not skating on thin ice.
> 
> 
> btw - "sell" and "MRE" must only be conjoined with "don't"





Haha, I agree.

With stocks and selling : 9 times out of 10 I wont sell them, the 10th time I think about it then don't sell them.

I'll hold MRE at least till I've held it a year to reduce tax and get the next dividends.


----------



## nizar (10 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Don't be silly!
> These are the best equities on the market - buy both and have many more happy returns.




I second that.

Realist - ZFX's income is very much dependant on Century, not necessarily a bad thing as its the worlds 2nd biggest zinc mine in production. Its current mine life is until 2013. They are currently working to try and extend that to 2020.

KZL on the other hand, like ZFX, their profit was achieved with prices of us$2.07/lb copper and us$1.00/lb zinc, so even if prices dont move from here, their profits will be >50% more anyway (but im fairly confident zinc will spike - it has to - soon the LME inventories will be depleted and smelters will need their zinc, at whatever price to keep their consumers happy).

KZL has a very strong production growth profile, with Zn production to increase from 35ktonnes to 50ktonnes in FY07 and Cu production to increase about 4-fold from 6.5ktonnes to 25ktonnes in FY07. There are further increases until 2009 from their CURRENT RESOURCE.

Now they have King Vol which will add to that production and add an extra 10 years. The resource there just doubled. And then next year 1Q they are drilling Admiral Bay which looks very promising.

And above all that they hold 17% stake in MLM for exposure to nickel.

Have a look at their latest presentation - its all spelt out there,

But Rederob nailed it - ZFX + KZL a deadly deadly combination and i feel when we look back at the performance of these two in 3-6months time, even we will be suprised at how much money we have made... 

The above does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a professional investment advisor and/or do your own research before investing.


----------



## pacer (17 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

About time it broke $6 resistance....and did it in style too, been waiting 5 trading days for this.
May buy some more today.......go baby go!


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (17 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

KZL is the best value Zinc and (bonus) copper play on the market. 
If Zinc prices hold up, it should conservatively have an SP of $8.00 by the end of the financial year IMHO.
I'm holding Long and hopefully some pullbacks, enable some trading opportunities as well.


----------



## nizar (17 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> KZL is the best value Zinc and (bonus) copper play on the market.
> If Zinc prices hold up, it should conservatively have an SP of $8.00 by the end of the financial year IMHO.
> I'm holding Long and hopefully some pullbacks, enable some trading opportunities as well.




your very conservative
calendar year EASY
u must consider MOMENTUM

towards the end of the year when analysts realise zinc is stronger for longer and upgrade earnings forecasts thats what will provide the push into double digits into 2007.

All in my opinion only.   \
I hold this one.


----------



## nizar (19 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Someone on another board asked me why i prefer KZL over ZFX. Here was my response - 

KZL or ZFX - i thought about it for a long long time. It was a tough choice. Ultimately whichever one you choose in my opinion ull do well.

(obviously its better to hold both)

ZFX have minelife problems. It has a low pe for a good reason. The market was paying 6x earnings for it last year and will probably pay only 6x for it this year and same next year. Nobody wants to top dollar at a (perceived?) top of a mining boom for a company that will have nothing to mine in a few years. BUT i reckon this stock is still a winner as its leveraged best to zinc due to sheer economies of scale. Its NPAT of $1billion was based on 97c/lb. If zinc stays where it is now, which i think is highly unlikely, their profit will be about $2billion which is almost $5/share, making a $2/share dividend ever more likely. So double the earnings, double the share price, and its all good. But they will not be increasing production to any significant extent.

For KZL, their increase in production is so great, damn its not even funny. Zinc production will increase from 35ktonnes to 52ktonnes a 48% increase, lead will increase from 10ktonnes to 15ktonnes (50%) but copper will increase from 6.5ktonnes to 25ktonnes which is a 284% increase. Now on Kagara's managements figures, their EBIDTA will be $200million next year based on us$3.18 copper and $1.54 zinc. Based on my own figures personally i think higher due to the spike in zinc price so NPAT upwards of $200million. Thats not a doubling, like ZFX, but rather almost a SIX-FOLD increase from its FY2006 NPAT of $35million. 

People are willing to pay a higher earnings multiple for KZL because they are will see massive earnings growth in the next few years due to increases in production. The increase in FY2007 is due to Thalanga, the copper production hub that just opened this month. But in April 2008 Mungana will open and that will further increase total production of Zn to 70ktonnes from 50ktonnes and Cu from 25ktonnes to 40ktonnes.

AND THEN!!!! King Vol which was just drilled excellent results there and that could add another 10 years to the mine life of KZL's projects. And then, yes theres more, Admiral Bay, in WA, which looks very promising will be drilled in the first quarter of next year.

KZL also have a 17% stake in MLM, nickel explorer, which resources is very close to Mt Garnet in QLD, which is KZL's major operations.

KZL will be increasing production at a rate that will grow earnings and more than offset any decreases in zinc and copper spot prices down the track. Thats why the market is willing to pay more for it. Its share price appreciation speaks for itself.

Remember KZL is unhedged. With zinc spot price the spike has yet to be seen.

They also have the some of the best management in the industry. Resources are increasing all the time.

Takeover target? Perhaps, why not, the rate they will grow production in the next few years make it very appealing, especially as they will have no substantial capex to deal with. I'll be very suprised if other companies havent at least looked at this.

Please note the above is my opinion only and does not constitute financial advice. Seek a professinal financial advisor or do your own research before investing.


----------



## sleeper88 (19 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

hey nizar..how about KZL vs CBH?


----------



## tasmanian (19 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Nizar,

Im impressed with your views.I hold both so looks like ill do ok.well im expecting better than just ok.

You really do your research well done.


You look to have a great future in the stockmarket.

Best of luck with it.


----------



## Dukey (20 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Ok - so here's a Q? from left field... maybe...

Considering ZFX's mine life problem (though there's alot of metal to be got by 2013?!!- sounds OK to me!!) - Are they, or will they be in a position to swallow KZL ?? If so - when would be a logical time to do it??

After all - ZFX's mine lies between KZL's Mt Garnet and Thalanga operations (i think).  Why not??


----------



## sleeper88 (20 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Dukey said:
			
		

> Ok - so here's a Q? from left field... maybe...
> 
> Considering ZFX's mine life problem (though there's alot of metal to be got by 2013?!!- sounds OK to me!!) - Are they, or will they be in a position to swallow KZL ?? If so - when would be a logical time to do it??
> 
> After all - ZFX's mine lies between KZL's Mt Garnet and Thalanga operations (i think).  Why not??




well Korea Zinc Co Ltd has a 14% stake in KZL (15-06-06) which makes any takeover difficult for ZFX as they have to deal with Korea Zinc


----------



## porkpie324 (20 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

After an absence from KZL for short period I went long on KZL using CFDs late yesterday, up this morning. porkpie


----------



## nizar (20 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				sleeper88 said:
			
		

> well Korea Zinc Co Ltd has a 14% stake in KZL (15-06-06) which makes any takeover difficult for ZFX as they have to deal with Korea Zinc




Yeh true and CBH have Toho zinc with about 24%, making both KZL and CBH hard to buy. But i think btw ZFX, KZL, and CBH there will be some sort of corporate play before the end of the year.

I have a good mate of mine works for KPMG Accounting, they handle all the accounts for ZFX, and him and his mates reckon ZFX, with all the cash they have, and their EXEMPLARY debt levels, are on the look out and have done the figures on a number of prospects. They've have brought their tax losses forward which may indicate they are gonna buy another business. CBH is the first company that came to mind. ZFX want Endeavour back! as it used to belong to Pasminco before it went bust, its one the few assets that ZFX didnt pick up.

CBH is trading at cheap earnings multiples (5x) especially if u consider its pipeline of growth. Earnings per share may (naturally) be downgraded slightly due to the extra 100million shares but possibly left the same due to zinc price strength. 

Anyway, Im sure those Koreans and Japs will sell out for the right price, which will probably be a massive premium to the current market price. Either way it looks good for the shareholders.

tasmanian - thanks for the kind words, hopefully we both do well.

KZL is up again to $6.42 - sometimes i underestimate this company. It really is a winner


----------



## pacer (23 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

It's climbing the mountain again today, holding KZL&ZFX, let's see what the rest of the week holds for them.


----------



## nizar (23 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> It's climbing the mountain again today, holding KZL&ZFX, let's see what the rest of the week holds for them.





This company is a winner, wenever i check it, its running. Im looking 4ward to a good quarterly.


----------



## pacer (24 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

It's still running.....and I am too....when will it peak?


----------



## michael_selway (24 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> It's still running.....and I am too....when will it peak?




when LME 'ins' or on warrants start to increase

thx

MS


----------



## porkpie324 (24 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I'm not sure on KZL at the mo either, still a good prospect though, but at the mo only day trading KZL with CFDs, had some good gains too. porkpie


----------



## nizar (24 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> It's still running.....and I am too....when will it peak?




probably about 12 months from now.

obviously it will be affected by any general market correction. metals havent run far enough to correct just yet.

MS when do u estimate that will happen?


----------



## porkpie324 (24 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

considering the materials index is falling away today KZL has stood up well.porkpie


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (25 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

What a winner share.


----------



## michael_selway (25 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> probably about 12 months from now.
> 
> obviously it will be affected by any general market correction. metals havent run far enough to correct just yet.
> 
> MS when do u estimate that will happen?




late 2007 im thinking atm

thx

MS


----------



## porkpie324 (26 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

KZL seems to have resistance around the $7.00 mark, much the same accured at the $6.00 mark.porkpie


----------



## michael_selway (26 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				porkpie324 said:
			
		

> KZL seems to have resistance around the $7.00 mark, much the same accured at the $6.00 mark.porkpie




Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 16.8 70.8 59.3 29.9 
DPS -- 2.8 0.0 0.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 70.8 9.6 321.7% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 59.3 11.5 -16.2% 

not sure how true that 2009 one is

thx
MS


----------



## porkpie324 (26 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Thanks MS for the detail, long term KZL are a good zinc miner, I have only been short term trading KZL of late with CFDs.porkpie


----------



## pacer (26 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Anyone got a few ponds of zinc to spare?....got a call from the Chinese....they are running a bit low on the stuff....I expect the Indians to be calling later today aswell....lol.....

I've had an awesome two weeks on this and ZFX.....but is it time for me to jump off this roller coaster?.....market sentiment is at an all time high which makes it very hard to judge the end of the run....but I just looked at the sell side and there is absolutely no resistance........only 160,000 shares till blue sky and I mean REAL BLUE SKY!!!!!.....0 resistance.....see you all at $8....maybe?

What a decision to make....I hate it .....

*Wow*....h*alted...and 0 resistance..later...gotta find out what's happening...

*


----------



## michael_selway (26 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> Anyone got a few ponds of zinc to spare?....got a call from the Chinese....they are running a bit low on the stuff....I expect the Indians to be calling later today aswell....lol.....
> 
> I've had an awesome two weeks on this and ZFX.....but is it time for me to jump off this roller coaster?.....market sentiment is at an all time high which makes it very hard to judge the end of the run....but I just looked at the sell side and there is absolutely no resistance........only 160,000 shares till blue sky and I mean REAL BLUE SKY!!!!!.....0 resistance.....see you all at $8....maybe?
> 
> ...




dude its called irrational exuberance   

but thats what happens when supply cannot meet demand

thx

MS


----------



## pacer (26 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Stupid computer...had me all excited....reloded etrade....still not much resistance only 118000 shares resistance now.......

Too much bourbon=exhuberance...sorry again....


----------



## Dukey (27 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc- Just keeps going!!*

Mornin Guys n Gals   
Well KZL just keep rocketing.... currently touching $7.16 !!  

IN the last month (since Sept 25) KZL sp has gone from about $4.85 to its current price - with - and this is the impressive bit - ONLY 2 DOWN DAYS (on closing price) if I`m reading correctly. !!!

Gotta love it hey... but I have 2 questions...

1. Who is buying... funds?? Small investors?? Big layers positioning themselves for a bid??

2. How long can it continue. Obviously zinc price and KZL`s future profits are big factors.

Any ideas on these questions?


----------



## michael_selway (27 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc- Just keeps going!!*



			
				Dukey said:
			
		

> Mornin Guys n Gals
> Well KZL just keep rocketing.... currently touching $7.16 !!
> 
> IN the last month (since Sept 25) KZL sp has gone from about $4.85 to its current price - with - and this is the impressive bit - ONLY 2 DOWN DAYS (on closing price) if I`m reading correctly. !!!
> ...




Its gonna keep going up and everyone will be buying it

Its called "irrational exuberance", but thats what happens if real supply cant meet real demand

thx

MS


----------



## pacer (27 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I'm trying very hard to find a reason to sell, but cant, I want those profits, but this is just a freak, like ZFX!

A splash in the inventories might put a stop to it, but who's got any to put there in a hurry.......blue sky still.....


----------



## rederob (27 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc- Just keeps going!!*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> Its called "irrational exuberance", but thats what happens if real supply cant meet real demand
> thx
> MS



Hardly "*irrational*".
Irrational implies it makes no sense.
Exactly the opposite.
Zinc is following the basic economic rules of supply and demand and being very true to them at the moment.
From a purely theoretical construct, zinc did not follow this rule for over 3 months while it was "shackled" to copper prices and fund selldowns.
Thus, its present price rally has an element of "catch-up" which we have yet to see.
LME cancelled warrant data suggest no respite from this rally for the next week or two, although the pace of warrant cancellations has slowed, and may temper the rising price somewhat.
Right now I believe $8 is a safe target price for KZL, although astute buyers should look for the gap of Friday 20 October to be filled (target price around $6.30 or lower).


----------



## michael_selway (27 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc- Just keeps going!!*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Hardly "*irrational*".
> Irrational implies it makes no sense.
> Exactly the opposite.
> Zinc is following the basic economic rules of supply and demand and being very true to them at the moment.
> ...




its "irrational" cause there appears to be real "no limit" as to how high it can go so to speak

thx

MS


----------



## nizar (27 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc- Just keeps going!!*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Hardly "*irrational*".
> Irrational implies it makes no sense.
> Exactly the opposite.
> Zinc is following the basic economic rules of supply and demand and being very true to them at the moment.
> ...




Agree. Last time zinc was us$1.80/lb the LME stocks was 250ktonnes, now they are about 110ktonnes and the price still around us$1.80/lb. ECO101 says the price will represent the supply/demand fundamentals over time. There is a massive catch up which has yet to occur.

Rederob i initially thought your $3+ was a bit on the high side but now it looks all the more realistic. 35,000tonnes a day is the worldwide daily consumption of zinc metal, any supply constraints and its game on. Thats only ~3.5 days of global supplies. This time last year there was 51 days supply. Its all spelt out in ZFXs report.

As for $8 price target for KZL, id be happy to buy them off you at that price in a few weeks as i suspect it will be at a discount to the market. Astute buyers may see the price go alot higher before it does fill the gap. Iv tried to do that before and then iv ended up having to chase and pay a higher price. I didnt think i was too astute then. I thought i was a fool. Now i just pay market price for any stock. Especially when i plan to hold for several months.

This stock is a winner. Earnings will increase 6-fold this year. Just remember that if u think the stock has had its run. If it goes 5-fold then maybe. But earnings increasing faster than the share price, is a phenomenon hardly ever seen (Like ZFX last year) This is one of those gems. K Robinson owns 5% of the company, so we know he will look after the share price.

At the beginning of the year i suggested this may be the ZFX of 2006. But it has indeed shamed its bigger cousin, already up 227% this year while ZFX ran 150% last year.

This stock is a winner.


----------



## GreatPig (27 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> A splash in the inventories might put a stop to it



Hey, if you want it stopped, just let me know.

All I'll have to do is buy some :

GP


----------



## Devil_Star (27 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

KZL's current SP looks exactly like ZFX's one year ago. I believe commodities boom will last at least one year forward. Hope KZL's SP will at least double by then.


----------



## nizar (27 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

This stock has closed up for the 12th yes TWELFTH day in a row!! from $5.86 on 11-10 until $7.21 today!

Thats a good effort!

(possibly some sort of record? iv never seen that before, iv seen steady rises but now 12 in a row)


----------



## pacer (28 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I hope 13 is not that unlucky.......can it do it again monday Nizar?


----------



## Brasidas (30 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

There is a good discussion of the next "nickel" sector - zinc - in this week's Minesite weekly roundup which is here in full.

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia 

By Our Man In Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia, another week, another record?

Oz. It certainly was for some stocks, especially those selling zinc and nickel to the steel industry. You probably saw the same reports we did down this way, that the world has almost run out of zinc, and the nickel price is showing no sign of retreating from its astonishingly high levels. The end result, naturally, is that zinc stocks such as Zinifex (ZFX), Perilya (PEM), CBH (CBH), Kagara (KZL) and Terramin (TZN) have moved into the stratosphere, joining the nickel brigade who where already up there.

Minews. A few price examples please?

Oz. Zinifex hit a 12-month high of A$15.05 during Friday trade, before settling back to close the week at A$14.65, a gain of A$1.14 (8.4 per cent), Perilya was up A70 cents (20.8 per cent) to A$4.05, down a fraction on its 12-month high of A$4.10 reached on Thursday and Friday. Kagara also set a 12-month high on Friday of A$7.34, before easing back to A$7.21, still up A82 cents (12.8 per cent). CBH, which received a severe setback at this time last year with a stope collapse in its Endeavour mine, was up A5.5 cents (8.8 per cent) to A67.5 cents, also a modest retreat from its high of A73.5 cents set on Thursday. Terramin, which is developing a small zinc mine close to Adelaide in South Australia, was up A14 cents (8.9 per cent) to A$1.70, down from a Thursday high of A$1.75.

Minews. And the nickel sector was strong again?

Oz. Yes, but not to the same extent as the zincs. Jubilee (JBM), which held its annual meeting during the week and said takeovers were off its agenda, was up a modest A20 cents (1.6 per cent) to A$12.60, down on its cracking start to the week when the stock hit a 12-month high of A$12.98. Western Areas (WSA) put on A25 cents (7.4 per cent) to close the week at A$3.64, also down from its 12-month high of A$3.79 set on Tuesday, and Minara (MRE) was up A11 cents (2.2 per cent) to A$5.20, which was some distance behind its 12-month high of A$5.55 set last week.

Minews. It looks from those price movements that the nickel sector is awfully close to a peak?

Oz. It would seem that way. It also seems to be the same with a number of the stocks exposed to the bulk end of the market where the future direction of iron ore and coal prices is being questioned. There were no dramatic falls, but the rises were modest, and not helped by a bit of corporate fiddling. Aztec Resources (AZR), which has been struggling with a takeover bid from rival Mt Gibson (MGX), and the sudden discovery of a royalty on its Koolan Island iron ore project, which it forgot to tell everyone about, resumed trading after a period in the sin bin, but hardly inspired. Volume was high on Thursday and Friday but the price only moved between A23 cents and A24 cents. There might be more to come on that royalty fiasco. Aztec’s takeover suitor, Mt Gibson, was treated more harshly, dropping A1.5 cents (2 per cent) to A70.5 cents. At the top end of the iron ore hopefuls, Fortescue Metals (FMG) returned to favour with a A78 cents (8.8 per cent) rise over the week to close at A$9.58.

Minews. And presumably your uranium stocks were hot after the production problems in Canada?

Oz. A strong week for that sector with most stocks trending up. Paladin (PDN) reached a 12-month high on Wednesday of A$6, but then fell away quite sharply to close on Friday at A$5.46, which was still up A54 cents (11 per cent) on the week. Pepinnini (PNN) also set a new high mark, trading up to A75 cents on Friday before easing back to close at A73 cents, still up A5 cents (7.4 per cent) for the week.

Minews. Much on the downside?

Oz. Very little, even the gold sector, which has been a bit of a laggard, managed to deliver some strong performances. Agincourt (AGC) reported good drill results from its Calais prospect near Wiluna and gained another A5 cents (4 per cent) to A$1.25. More importantly, last weeks’ rise took the gain over the past nine trading days to A25 cents (25 per cent). The only fall really worth noting was Consolidated Minerals (CSM) which dropped A10 cents (4.2 per cent) to A$2.30 as the takeover frenzy which gripped the stock earlier in the month seemed to run out of puff.

http://www.minesite.com/storyFull5.php?storySeq=3894


----------



## Dukey (30 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> I hope 13 is not that unlucky.......can it do it again monday Nizar?



Pacer - how could you have any doubts!!?... shame on you...
Just look at this beauty go....:bowser:

another +20c since opening today - could settle back a little from there though.


----------



## pacer (30 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I just hate holding over the weekend....13 is lucky....14 is luckier....lol.

Kagara is a takeover target for ZFX....then ZFX is also a take over target....see the link I will post....

I haven't had this much fun since I caught my first Marlin.


----------



## Dukey (30 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I like this - from Brasidas post below... could be like this all week !!
what a pity... 

Minews. Good morning Australia, another week, another record?

Quote
 Oz. It certainly was for some stocks, especially those selling zinc and nickel to the steel industry. You probably saw the same reports we did down this way, that *the world has almost run out of zinc*, and the nickel price is showing no sign of retreating from its astonishingly high levels. The end result, naturally, is that zinc stocks such as Zinifex (ZFX), Perilya (PEM), CBH (CBH), Kagara (KZL) and Terramin (TZN) have moved into the stratosphere, joining the nickel brigade who where already up there.  Unquote


----------



## Dukey (30 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Sorry - got my quote marks in the wrong place !!

First one should've been before 'Minews...'


----------



## x2rider (30 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

hi folks
 Well A pity this ann. came out after market . Lots of good news in this one especilly with the king Vol resource doubling .with about 14%zinc as well 
 Also good intersections of Zinc in Montevideo as well .  
 Glad I got some more today 

 Cheers Martin


----------



## sleeper88 (31 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

hmm..taking a breather today..and off we go again and other 13/14 days of green numbers   (too bad i don't hold this one   )..but hopefully it rubs off on CBH


----------



## michael_selway (31 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				sleeper88 said:
			
		

> hmm..taking a breather today..and off we go again and other 13/14 days of green numbers   (too bad i don't hold this one   )..but hopefully it rubs off on CBH




unbelievable run, the first down day in a long time!

Btw good article

http://www.kagara.com.au/documents/RBC Capital Markets Research Comment.pdf

thx

MS


----------



## 2020hindsight (31 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I got out at 7.67 got bak in at 7.61  just to watch it drop to 7.50  - sheesh - gee i love this game lol  still it beats the casino  - 
 PLUS you can play while wearing your pyjamas.
Sorry - I havent investigated this - but somebody bought one hellova lotta shares to get the buy up to 7.81 this mornin  - so - why the pessimism?


----------



## PorscheACE (31 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

GREAT STOCK!!!

Watch if fly tomorrow as Zinc breaks the $2 mark for the first time  Fingers crossed!


----------



## nizar (31 October 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> unbelievable run, the first down day in a long time!
> 
> Btw good article
> 
> ...





Thanks for the article MS, i havent read it yet but i saw their target is A$8.00/share. Funny that, its actually the same figure as my target, my one-week target that is.


----------



## dlineinvestor (1 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

A very good read.............Thank's
Micheal Sel_way

Holding ZFX and KZL   .........may the force be with you ......


----------



## pacer (1 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Yep after reading that you could almost be tempted to put a 1 in front of thier valuation around April 1st........$18....you never know...


----------



## pacer (1 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

*
Seems to be very light trading and a slight downturn in SP at the moment....any ideas......

Maybe the last two big days were too much for the market to consider....any explantions will do.
*


----------



## porkpie324 (1 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Yesterday I thought KZL was meeting lots of resistance coupled with weak support which appears so far today to be the case also. after such a long uptrend I guess it due. porkpie


----------



## nizar (1 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> *
> Seems to be very light trading and a slight downturn in SP at the moment....any ideas......
> 
> Maybe the last two big days were too much for the market to consider....any explantions will do.
> *




why does there have to be an explanation??

how about it needs a break?
DId u think it would go up for forever?
Im very happy with its performance
did u really think it would go up this far without consolidation?
$5.86 to $7.50 in a straight line, and now to establish support above $7.
any lower than that, and i buy again.

Pacer if u are disappointed u can always sell...


----------



## pacer (1 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Not selling at all, and definitely not dissapointed...just looking for views....my stop is 6.70 and that still leaves a sizeable profit.......

And weren't you the one predicting 13.50 top, and waiting for it to drop so you could get on cheap.....lol....sorry Nizar....that was ZFX


----------



## pacer (2 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

More bullish sentiment and not a bad site to cruise for free.


http://www.mineweb.net/base_metals/145691.htm


----------



## nizar (2 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> Not selling at all, and definitely not dissapointed...just looking for views....my stop is 6.70 and that still leaves a sizeable profit.......
> 
> And weren't you the one predicting 13.50 top, and waiting for it to drop so you could get on cheap.....lol....sorry Nizar....that was ZFX




Umm.... no that was Fab... and i blasted him for doing that, coz in my experience whenever i wait for it to get "cheaper" the sp has always done a runner on me... on a number of stocks... so now because i usually take a long term view, i just buy at market always....

So yeh maybe its worth reading what i said again, coz i was against the 13.50 top, i think it will run to 25+, read my posts please, carefully...

And pacer... stress less ok buddy... its not worth worrying about the short term sp fluctuations when the longer term picture is so bullish...


----------



## barney (2 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Hi lads, Thanks for the good info on KZL and zinc etc.     Just a quick question ....... There are mixed reports coming from the US re a possible market downturn in general (Housing down etc etc) which eventually spills over to Oz ....... Hypothetically, if say the general market drops a significant amount, what effect would this have on Resouce stocks such as KZL and ZFX, if any. Or are these types of stocks more immune to general market fluctuations ...... Thanks, Barney.


----------



## Out Too Soon (2 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> And pacer... stress less ok buddy... its not worth worrying about the short term sp fluctuations when the longer term picture is so bullish...




Could you maybe tell me not to stress today too please?
I really shouldn't look at the sp everyday, esp' days like today, today is just a brief correction isn't it?


----------



## scsl (2 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I'm sooooo tempted to buy this atm...


----------



## barney (3 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Hi SCSL, I raided the bikkie barrell yesterday to take a small position in this. (Would like the cash to take a large position!) The early sellers seemed to dry up quickly, and the rest of the day held firm considering the wobbly market. I just got the impression that the stock holders of KZL dont really want to sell. Of course there could be a mass exodous from here on in, but Imo, it looks solid long term.  Cheers, Barney.


----------



## CanOz (3 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Zinc prices hit another record overnight on the LME.


----------



## Dukey (3 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Well - just out of curiosity...comparing the last year for ZFX & KZL:
- past year - ZFX up from ~$4.90 to ~ $15.85 today. Thats about 223% increase right? 
- KZL up from ~$1.70 to ~ $7.20. Around 323% increase.
With ZFX pegging them back with some good gains in the last few days, while KZL has consolidated - as you would expect - after such a magical run in Oct.

Either way it's all good for KZL - as it will be looking even more attractive to investors as ZFX continues its run, and starts to look relatively expensive.

I'm sure theres plenty yet to come for both of them though, with Zn prices looking good for a while yet.


----------



## porkpie324 (3 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I've opened some CFD positions on KZL yesterday  & today, after a pull back the support is looking good,  with the market and the materials sector looking to have a strong finnish I'm leaving them open over the weekend (something I hav'nt done for a while). porkpie


----------



## CanOz (3 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Wouldn't you think you would start to see some big moves by KZL and ZFX to cement thier positions in the industry by taking over some smaller zinc miners?


----------



## sleeper88 (3 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> Wouldn't you think you would start to see some big moves by KZL and ZFX to cement thier positions in the industry by taking over some smaller zinc miners?




hmm..ZFX gobbles up KZL, CBH eats TRO and PEM mergers with TZN, as for JML, CSM will most likely aquire it ...
so after some massive consolidation   this is wat's left 

ZFX, CBH, PEM    

ok now seriously, 
KZL is unlikely to be a target, i think if there was a consolidation it would be ZFX having a go at CBH, while KZL and PEM could merge


----------



## nizar (3 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> Wouldn't you think you would start to see some big moves by KZL and ZFX to cement thier positions in the industry by taking over some smaller zinc miners?





KZL dont have enough cash to take someone over. They will grow their production enough without having to take over another company.

ZFX, on the other hand, are in the opposite position. They have plenty of cash, and will not be growing production significantly in the near future, so it makes sense for them to buy another producer.

This is just speculation, but i think CBH is prime for a takeover. What would be a good price? Normally i think its about 30% premium on average. $1/share sounds good


----------



## sleeper88 (3 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> KZL dont have enough cash to take someone over. They will grow their production enough without having to take over another company.
> 
> ZFX, on the other hand, are in the opposite position. They have plenty of cash, and will not be growing production significantly in the near future, so it makes sense for them to buy another producer.
> 
> This is just speculation, but i think CBH is prime for a takeover. What would be a good price? Normally i think its about 30% premium on average. $1/share sounds good




no way..i want 2.50 at least


----------



## nizar (3 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				sleeper88 said:
			
		

> no way..i want 2.50 at least




Haha, if it doesnt get taken over, it will get to $2.00 by this time next year at the latest.


----------



## nizar (11 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Kagara Zinc Says It Has Been `Informally Approached' (Update3) 

By Madelene Pearson

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Kagara Zinc Ltd., the best performer in Australia's benchmark stock index this year, said it has been ``informally approached'' by a number of interested parties, stoking speculation that the company could be a takeover target. 

None of the approaches has been attractive to the board, the Perth-based miner said in a statement today. Kagara is worth A$1.5 billion ($1.15 billion) at today's stock price. 

Mining companies are scouring the world for assets to expand output as prices of commodities soar. The price of zinc, which is mainly used to galvanize steel, rose to a record yesterday for a fourth straight day. 

``The company has got a proven track record of developing their projects,'' said Albert Landman, a strategist at Tricom Futures Services Pty., who helps advise on A$80 million in Australian equities. ``It's probably fair to say that the investment community, as a whole, has been behind the curve in the strength and upside in base-metal prices.'' 

Shares of Kagara rose 27 cents, or 3.6 percent, to A$7.72 on Australian Stock Exchange at the 4:10 p.m. close of trade in Sydney. The stock has more than tripled this year. 

``We are not currently in discussions with any interested parties,'' Kagara's Executive Chairman Kim Robinson said in the statement, which was lodged with exchange. Robinson didn't specify what the approaches had been about. 

The company sells all of its output to Korea Zinc Co., the world's biggest smelter of the metal, which also holds a 14 percent stake in Kagara. 

Zinc Surges 

Zinc prices have gained as supplies of the metal have failed to keep pace with surging demand. The metal will average $1.95 a pound, or $4,299 a metric ton next year, up from a previous forecast of $1.30 a pound, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by Oscar Cabrera said in a report yesterday. 

Zinc for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange, the world's largest such bourse, gained $95, or 2.1 percent, to $4,515 a ton yesterday. The metal has averaged $3,078 a ton so far this year, compared with $1,392 in 2004. 

Global zinc use will increase by 3.9 percent to 11.1 million tons this year, and by a further 2.6 percent to 11.4 million tons in 2007, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said Oct. 9.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (11 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Nizar,

Hmmm, absolutely weird why didn't a takeover offer come a few months back when the SP was weak and undervalued

How much do Korea Zinc own of KZL?, and Insto's, Couldn't see them approving of a bid and back doorin Robinson, KZL's been a cash cow for them.


----------



## nizar (11 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Nizar,
> 
> Hmmm, absolutely weird why didn't a takeover offer come a few months back when the SP was weak and undervalued
> 
> How much do Korea Zinc own of KZL?, and Insto's, Couldn't see them approving of a bid and back doorin Robinson, KZL's been a cash cow for them.




Korea zinc own 14% and K Robinson 11%
I suspect that maybe if we look back in 6 months, the current share price will seem "weak and undervalued"


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (11 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Youre probably right, you seem to be on the mark with your Zincors. 

I don't hold KZL anymore, I reckon their fair value ATM, won't go past 10 bucks by June and hence the return is no longer in them. Add that to the fact they have no policy on dividends so I would rather look elsewhere for another one with some of KZL's past growth record.

The above might change if their SP corrects though!.


----------



## pacer (13 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Saturday's West Australian newspaper states that take-overs offers have been made and rejected .......will ther be more?....who knows....but it would have been nice to let the market know this.........earlier.


----------



## nizar (13 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> Saturday's West Australian newspaper states that take-overs offers have been made and rejected .......will ther be more?....who knows....but it would have been nice to let the market know this.........earlier.




It shows this company is here for the long term, and they are here to make profits, they dont just give out announcements as ramps for short term share price movements. They care about delivery shareholder value, after all K Robinson holds 11%. KZL is the best performing stock in the asx200. Those facts speak for themselves. I cant criticise this company they havent set a foot wrong.

Kim doesnt wanna sell for $8 or 9, because he knows the share price will go much higher, FY2007 will see profits increase 6-fold, what does that mean for the share price?....


----------



## nizar (13 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> I don't hold KZL anymore, I reckon their fair value ATM, won't go past 10 bucks by June and hence the return is no longer in them. Add that to the fact they have no policy on dividends so I would rather look elsewhere for another one with some of KZL's past growth record.




Funny guy... but you are entitled to your view.
I think $10 will be breached this year. They will earn $1/share in FY2007. And they will initiate dividends this year, i expect 10c/share myself.

KZLs growth will continue, dont look to the past bro, look to the future.

In 2006: 35ktonnes Zn, 6.5ktonnes Cu
In 2007: 50ktonnes Zn, 25ktonnes Cu
In 2008: 70ktonnes Zn, 40ktonnes Cu
In 2009: 100ktonnes Zn, 50ktonnes Cu

Thats pretty good production growth if u ask me. Will it require a large capex like other companies. NOPE.

Plus they are spending $1m+ on exploration, will they find anything? There track record says YES. ANd Admiral Bay to be drilled in 1q2007, they should define a large resource there.

And they have 17% of MLM, nickel up and comer, those nickel stocks are still low.

And u said it wont reach $10 by June??? HAhaha LOL
Why not?
Technicals are there, fundamentals are there.

This stock is a winner.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (13 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I certainly think the market factors in the future with companies and a current SP of a Company reflects this. KZL is no different,


KZL's fundamentals as a Company have been known for some time as has next years growth in them as management see's it, in fact they posted it in July (predicted earnings), on that particular day the SP tried to run but pulled back within an hour. Why?, because punters were still unsure of Zn and future pricing, since then the market feels a bit more certain about Zn and hence all Zincors have basically doubled (and KZL). 

The market always factors into a Company the future in its current SP, 
To note I accumalated KZL back then as I already made my assumption on the Zinc outlook and am now happy to have made my returns on said companies. I am out at this point with KZL. You are quite quick to quote the returns of experts vs other punters Nizar. Well my returns on my Zincors doubled from June to October Nizar and I have chosen to realize these gains Nizar. What wrong with that!.

At the time I was adding my input to ASF when many on ASF, (the experienced ones), constantly stated what about risk etc etc!. Well I disagreed, I made my call on Zn prior to the masses, traded my plan and took my profits. The same with Nicklers.

By the way I like KZL as with some others, and would certainly trade them again if the situation presents.


I probably don't agree with many of the experienced crew on ASF, then again I don't agree with much of the norm in much I do, maybe I'm just weird . But hey Nizar, I'm pretty comfortable in life, have done well out of the stockmarket and am confident I will continue to do so.


----------



## nizar (13 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> I certainly think the market factors in the future with companies and a current SP of a Company reflects this. KZL is no different,
> 
> 
> KZL's fundamentals as a Company have been known for some time as has next years growth in them as management see's it, in fact they posted it in July (predicted earnings), on that particular day the SP tried to run but pulled back within an hour. Why?, because punters were still unsure of Zn and future pricing, since then the market feels a bit more certain about Zn and hence all Zincors have basically doubled (and KZL).
> ...




I started buying zinc stocks in january of this year. I have exited both KZL and CBH as of last week, and like you i have realised significant gains.

Where my thinking differed from yours is that u think KZL is fairly priced. I dont, i think its still cheap. My exit was in line with my overall strategy as i feared a correction after the US elections.

Nothings wrong with your strategy and nothings wrong with mine. As long as we are both profitable, thats the main thing. I just didnt like how u said that $10 wont be reached before June and thats what i disagree with.

I hope i didnt offend you, that was never my intention, just wanted to make a point.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (13 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Nizar,

As usual I agree with you. KZL is a well managed company, delivering on its exploration and financial forecasts and certainly in the right commodities.

It could well outperfom the market again and IMHO is one of the best outfits in the ASX, nothing is certain in the materials sector and its high risk vs great returns.

KZL could again double in the coming months, odds are in their favour and I'm bullish on Zinc and like their exploration targets. I'll trade them again (more than likely).

I like ADI at the moment and transferred KZL's holdings into them. From a certainty stock to a bit of a punt, its paying off ATM but that could change tommorow!, you gotta love the stockmarket.


----------



## porkpie324 (16 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

KZL has taken a bashing today, I went long on them yesterday and some more today.porkpie


----------



## pacer (16 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I reversed position to a short first thing as they fell and took back some profits.


----------



## porkpie324 (16 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I thought about shorting KZL but don't like to short strong stocks, they finished off the days low and i'm holding overnight, porkpie


----------



## rederob (20 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

*Kagara snares WA nickel mining lease*
 Barry FitzGerald
November 20, 2006

BOOMING zinc and copper producer Kagara has sneaked under the guard of Western Australia's growth-hungry nickel producers to secure ownership of a hot piece of nickel real estate.

Kagara is to pay Canada's LionOre Mining $25 million for rights to the mining lease, which covers expected extensions to the nickel ore bodies that underpin Western Areas NL's new Flying Fox project, an initial producer of 8000 tonnes of nickel a year.

Kagara said that the acquisition was a "logical diversification into potentially low-cost, low-risk and high-grade nickel sulphide production".

rest is at: http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...el-mining-lease/2006/11/19/1163871272571.html


----------



## Dukey (20 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Havn't read the nitty gritty of this deal yet - but sounds good on the surface. 
Rederob: Interesting that the market seems to have reacted negatively to this news?? Down 19c since todays open.... or is that just a continuing factor of latest Zn/Cu prices.


----------



## MalteseBull (20 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Dukey said:
			
		

> Havn't read the nitty gritty of this deal yet - but sounds good on the surface.
> Rederob: Interesting that the market seems to have reacted negatively to this news?? Down 19c since todays open.... or is that just a continuing factor of latest Zn/Cu prices.




its due to the zinc/copper prices, you'll notice ZFX, CBH, TZN are down as well.

Prime buying opportunity


----------



## Dukey (20 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Looks like we can expect dividends soon from KZL - not surprising, but nice to get some confirmation from the horses mouth:

"With the strong cash flows (etc) ... ...your directors are currently looking at implementing a dividend policy. Shareholders should expect and announcement with regard to this in the near future."


----------



## nizar (20 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Dukey said:
			
		

> Looks like we can expect dividends soon from KZL - not surprising, but nice to get some confirmation from the horses mouth:
> 
> "With the strong cash flows (etc) ... ...your directors are currently looking at implementing a dividend policy. Shareholders should expect and announcement with regard to this in the near future."




Yeh agree im not suprised and have been expecting around 10c/share this year but its nice to get confirmation as you say.

This announcement is very bullish, i like especially from the last paragraph of the first page onwards.

This company is a winner.


----------



## MalteseBull (22 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

new daily highs by the minute


----------



## nizar (22 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				MalteseBull said:
			
		

> new daily highs by the minute



All time highs soon, my friend.
This stock is a winner.


----------



## Rafa (22 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

i got in a few days ago at 6.95...
at the moment, its 50 cents short of the all time high...

picked this over zfx for no real reason, but its my only zinc play now...


----------



## nizar (22 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Rafa said:
			
		

> i got in a few days ago at 6.95...
> at the moment, its 50 cents short of the all time high...
> 
> picked this over zfx for no real reason, but its my only zinc play now...




i think ill go for ZFX this time.
Just coz i havent rode it in a while...


----------



## Rafa (22 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

waiting for ZFX to clear its all time high from a few weeks back before going in.
but then, i guess you could apply the same logic to KZL...

in the end, they all track the POZ!


----------



## MalteseBull (23 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Very Strong open and solid support at the moment


----------



## MalteseBull (23 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

10 cent dividend on the 20th of December

what a nice chrissy present!


----------



## michael_selway (24 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				MalteseBull said:
			
		

> 10 cent dividend on the 20th of December
> 
> what a nice chrissy present!




Not bad   

thx

MS


----------



## pacer (25 November 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> i think ill go for ZFX this time.
> Just coz i havent rode it in a while...




I ALWAYS GO FOR BOTH...EVEN THE ODDS.....EASY MONEY!!!....
....ZINC UP AGAIN TONITE.....EASY MONDAY MONEY......


----------



## eMark (6 December 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Is there any reason why KZL has appeared dead in the water over the last couple of weeks?


----------



## Moneybags (6 December 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				eMark said:
			
		

> Is there any reason why KZL has appeared dead in the water over the last couple of weeks?





Yep.......I bought some.

MB


----------



## eMark (6 December 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

 Sounds so similar to a mate of mine who trades, and believes the same thing.....ie when he buys, the stock retreats. Spooky. 







			
				Moneybags said:
			
		

> Yep.......I bought some.
> 
> MB


----------



## Out Too Soon (7 December 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Jabiru JML seems to be the only zinc stock that's still climbing while the bigguns take a breather, JML starts mining mid 2007, should be huge.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (7 December 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

KZL has done it hard the last few weeks IMO. Today's SP could be decent value depending on your viewpoint   , record date coming up soon also.


----------



## scsl (19 December 2006)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I'm still learning and applying technical analysis so correct me if I'm wrong here, but is KZL currently forming a bullish pennant? And if so, is there some further application of technical analysis whereby you can make a guess as to the next target level of the stock? (E.g. I've read that when it comes to head and shoulder patterns, this can be determined by looking at the neckline.)


----------



## Kauri (15 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

May have one more push down left in it yet, or not???  Watching closely for vol confirmation to confirm if W5 has started. Shouldn't be too far off.


----------



## alankew (15 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Kauri so i presume you are expecting a move south before it continues up?If this is so what level would you expect it to rise to-I presume price oz Zinc etc has to be positive for your outcome to happen.Thanks in advance


----------



## Kauri (15 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				alankew said:
			
		

> Kauri so i presume you are expecting a move south before it continues up?If this is so what level would you expect it to rise to-I presume price oz Zinc etc has to be positive for your outcome to happen.Thanks in advance




  I am leaning towards the recent low being the bottom of W4, based on the recent vol. Am only recently trying to come to terms with vol analysis so bear with me, if anyone reads it differently please point out where I am seeing it incorrectly.


----------



## Halba (16 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

stock doesn't have any compelling reason short term to be in...most other zinc's have p/e of 1/2 of KZL


----------



## Kauri (18 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				alankew said:
			
		

> Kauri so i presume you are expecting a move south before it continues up?If this is so what level would you expect it to rise to-I presume price oz Zinc etc has to be positive for your outcome to happen.Thanks in advance




   Hopefully that is the move south accounted for and the recent low around 6.00 holds. The entry marked is *risky* and depends on vol characteristics but will give a high reward ratio if successfull.


----------



## dj_420 (18 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

im not so sure about zinc stocks anymore. outlook does not look as rosy as last year. LME has seen some heavy increases of late and is back above 100 k tonnes. 

im only holding one zinc stock now JML, have dumped CBH completely, havent been in KZL yet. 

what are peoples expectations with zinc spot? should prob post on zinc thread


----------



## chops_a_must (18 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				dj_420 said:
			
		

> im not so sure about zinc stocks anymore. outlook does not look as rosy as last year. LME has seen some heavy increases of late and is back above 100 k tonnes.
> 
> what are peoples expectations with zinc spot?



I'm thinking much the same way. Every man and his dog is now on the Zinc bandwagon, and the price movements of zinc stocks no longer make sense to me. Because everyone is buying up zinc stocks, I don't think they are reaching a value where I would consider them. Instead I am putting the money that would have gone into zinc, into nickel. I don't think they have been as heavily bought, and have slipped under the radar somewhat. Plus, the nickel spot price does not look nearly as fragile as zinc.


----------



## Rafa (18 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

there is nothing i can see in the current price action to compell me to buy anything other than some dodgy Uranium mine with no hope of production in the near term


----------



## Kauri (18 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I'm thinking much the same way. Every man and his dog is now on the Zinc bandwagon, and the price movements of zinc stocks no longer make sense to me.* Because everyone is buying up zinc stocks*, I don't think they are reaching a value where I would consider them. Instead I am putting the money that would have gone into zinc, into nickel. I don't think they have been as heavily bought, and have slipped under the radar somewhat. Plus, the nickel spot price does not look nearly as fragile as zinc.





   Wish they were, we wouldn't have had the price of KZL, ZFX, CBH, all dropping off recently


----------



## chops_a_must (18 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Wish they were, we wouldn't have had the price of KZL, ZFX, CBH, all dropping off recently



They've stopped them from dropping further...


----------



## porkpie324 (18 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

There is some long awaited support coming thru on KZL on reasonable volume later today. so after some recent finger burning have opened up 3 pos this afternoon.porkpie


----------



## Dukey (19 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Howdy all,
Noticed a while back that in 06-07 KZL expect Copper to account for more revenue than Zn and be a large part of expected profit increases. Though obviously price dependent.

So KZL is no longer a predominantly Zn play.
Any comments about how this will affect their growth, given that Cu price has fallen from great heights - but still high in a historical sense at around $2.50/lb. And Zn is undergoing a correction.
From what I can find - forecasts for both metals are very varied.


----------



## mlennox (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

also jumped in and purchased some today could be pre-empting upside see how we go...


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				mlennox said:
			
		

> also jumped in and purchased some today could be pre-empting upside see how we go...



KZL's on lower lows and lower highs....why buy now?


----------



## reece55 (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Guys
KZL isn't a share I would be trading long at the moment, personally......

This thing has done nothing but go down since October..... Todays bar doesn't inspire confidence, didn't clear above Friday's gap and in a tight range. And considering the strong day of the rest of the market had, the stock doesn't inspire confidence in me. Some of the wave analyst here believe that a wave 5 could be coming, but I am little pessimistic. In fact, this one is on my shorting list at the moment. If you are after zinc and copper exposure, there are much cheaper plays than that of KZL - OXR would be my pick of the bunch.

Cheers


----------



## mlennox (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> KZL's on lower lows and lower highs....why buy now?




found support at $6 on friday, bounce to 6.10 then entry at around 6.11 on open currently up about 3 cents, pre-empting more positive news in zinc this evening, i'm short term CFD trading so i'll look to exit around 6.26 almost found that today got up to 6.20 i think the high was...


----------



## chops_a_must (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				mlennox said:
			
		

> found support at $6 on friday, bounce to 6.10 then entry at around 6.11 on open currently up about 3 cents, pre-empting more positive news in zinc this evening, i'm short term CFD trading so i'll look to exit around 6.26 almost found that today got up to 6.20 i think the high was...



Gambling against the trend. Good luck with that.


----------



## mlennox (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

doubled my account in 2 months... what have you done ?


----------



## reece55 (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

My point exactly Chops..........

This is a high risk trade IMO - I just wouldn't be looking to go against the obvious downward momentum...... There are plenty of stocks at the moment shooting to the sky, including the top 100 - As I said, this one is a definite short for me........... Obviously, DYOR however...... but the price action to me is abundantly clear!

Cheers


----------



## mlennox (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

see what happens tommorow lads, then u can break my balls


----------



## chops_a_must (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				mlennox said:
			
		

> doubled my account in 2 months... what have you done ?



Not taken stupid risks in the process. Anyone could have made a truckload of money in the last two months. And I'm not going to go long on something that is clearly in a downtrend.


----------



## reece55 (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

mlennox - absolutely happy to let the market do the talking and I mean no ill intent here - I wish you all the very best on your trade, just doesn't fulfill my risk/reward analysis. Just attempting to provide objective analysis of the price action - however, if your time frame is a day to 2 days, you may be able to make this work.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

While there is some support now at $6.00, the next likely stop is $5.50, until it proves a turn around is in place.


----------



## Moneybags (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Kennas,

Excuse my ignorance of charts but is that a gap between 5.50 & 6.00 and if so don't gaps in most cases get filled eventually. 

MB


----------



## Kauri (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Another way of looking at the volume over the past couple of days. Personally I am looking for a *couple of confirming days* before commiting myself, but the signs to me are for a *possible *turn about.


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Moneybags said:
			
		

> Kennas,
> 
> Excuse my ignorance of charts but is that a gap between 5.50 & 6.00 and if so don't gaps in most cases get filled eventually.
> 
> MB



There is a little gap in there, but not the whole period. I'm still working on the whole gap theory thing. Seems they should be filled and form support and resistance lines, but it's all anecdotal to me at the moment.


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Another way of looking at the volume over the past couple of days. Personally I am looking for a *couple of confirming days* before commiting myself, but the signs to me are for a *possible *turn about.



Definately a possible double bottom. Won't be confirmed until there is a higher high IMO.


----------



## Moneybags (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> There is a little gap in there, but not the whole period. I'm still working on the whole gap theory thing. Seems they should be filled and form support and resistance lines, but it's all anecdotal to me at the moment.




Sure Kennas, I think I know what you mean. Thanks for the response.

MB


----------



## Kauri (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Gaps lose their relevance the further in the past they are.


----------



## Moneybags (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Gaps lose their relevance the further in the past they are.




Thanks Kauri. So I take it the small gap in question is very unlikely to ever come into play. 

MB


----------



## Kauri (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Definately a possible double bottom. Won't be confirmed until there is a higher high IMO.




I've never had much to do with bottoms, but maybe a different way of looking at it.... it is confirmed until a lower low is formed??


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> I've never had much to do with bottoms, but maybe a different way of looking at it.... it is confirmed until a lower low is formed??



Well, I'd be looking for a break up out of the downward trend which might not be until it's broken about $7.00-7.20. Then, I'd reevaluate.


----------



## Kauri (23 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Moneybags said:
			
		

> Thanks Kauri. So I take it the small gap in question is very unlikely to ever come into play.
> 
> MB




  I'd never say never,   ,but for instance their is a gap in KZL back on 1st-2nd Sept 05 around $1.30 still waiting to be filled.


----------



## coyotte (23 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Zu may have made a double bottom ?


Cheers


----------



## michael_selway (23 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> Zu may have made a double bottom ?
> 
> 
> Cheers




hehe maybe

mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vT4cZR2Ej3LU.asf

thx

MS


----------



## porkpie324 (23 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

On this mornings a/n KZL sp took a dive but has recovered some that sell off, was this a good half year result or inline with market expectations. porkpie


----------



## reece55 (23 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Well MLennox, hope you were out at the high today $6.19, cause it's going down from here......... As I said, you can jog any share you like, but if you want to perform in the long run you are much better of going with the statistically higher chance - clearly, the odds here were stacked against you. Appears to have found support at $6.00 intra day, but it's not going to be a pretty chart IMO......... Good luck to all holders here, but once again I reinforce that I would not be on the long side here...... If I had access to a CFD platform, I would be in short myself!

Cheers


----------



## Kauri (23 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Might explain the tumble...


----------



## Halba (23 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

thats  a poor result. especially as the profit is "pre tax". post tax somewhere around $120m which is poor for a $1.2billion dollar company. ZFX $1.5bn for an $8.5bn company is much better analysis

they should change their name to Kagara Copper, coz i don't see much zinc production


----------



## dj_420 (31 January 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

KZL has just broken support IMO. there was a support level around 5.55 but broke that today.

with copper and zinc prices dropping i see the potential downside around next support levels around 4.55 and 4.80 ish i believe.

qtrly brought a net profit that was nowhere near as big as expected and has quickened the pace of the sp slide. 

i wish i had access to a CFD platform as i would have shorted many zinc stocks lately.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (1 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				dj_420 said:
			
		

> KZL has just broken support IMO. there was a support level around 5.55 but broke that today.
> 
> with copper and zinc prices dropping i see the potential downside around next support levels around 4.55 and 4.80 ish i believe.
> 
> ...





Hi DJ,

KZL traded the bulk of volume Today in a tight range and mostly around $5.50, falling through support at $5.50 is splitting hairs IMO. The close was weak though so its a distinct possability they may indeed slip further

KZL's chart is attrocious with them in a clear downtrend, out of flavour and a bottom yet to be found.

Personally I feel your quoted supports of $5.50 and $4.80 are a mute point. No Long term trend their and simply profit takers from the quick push and momentum profit takers after the spike, clearly illustrated by the gap down post momentum. Plenty of those traders around, thank christ for that .

$4.50ish is a more pertinent support and IMO buckleys of going their. 

*Anyway:*

As per Post #157 on this thread I still feel a $10 SP is unlikey before June, LOL  although a sizeable return on Today's SP is likely.

I think a new higher support will be found for KZL this time around and I'm not going to quibble over a few percent either way. After a few months out of them, more than happy to take a sizeable holding today.

I like the whole package with KZL (management,mines,reserves,exploration,potential diversification etc etc).....minus their copper plays   moreso I like their recent aquisition adjacent to FF and their Admiral Bay Deposit, both have huge potential

Lets see what pans out!.


----------



## dj_420 (2 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

posting up chart again as IMO it has broken support at the 5.50 mark, and has further to slide.

freeball im not arguing that the company is not fundamentally sound, i think they have great fundamentals and i will enter long on the UPTREND resuming.

to enter a company on a downtrend with no indication of the trend reversing is not good investing IMO. i dont think the point that i made of it breaking 5.50 was splitting hairs as the sp is now 5.31. 

anyway ill post when i think there is an indication of the sp turning around.


----------



## dj_420 (2 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

ooops forgot my chart


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (2 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Hi DJ,

Certainly agree with youre views on KZL. 
I pulled some funds from Nickle and put them were I considered some value was, KZL being my choice.  
Happy with my entry.....didn't expect to make a return in one day considering their flavour with the market ATM. Seems like I am the only one buying...lol


----------



## porkpie324 (2 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I wish I had your nerve Freeballer, I got badly singed with KZL in Jan, so I'm a bit hesitant on opening any long pos, but good luck. porkpie


----------



## Dukey (5 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Wow... down she goes!!
looks like kzl's gonna test that 4.80 (-ish)  support on dj's chart below.
What do you folks reckon - will it keep going or stop there...

My guess - would be that should be about it.
but... thats a mildly educated guess only.   Will watch keenly from the sidelines for the turn.


----------



## Pat (5 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I agree, KZL looks like it will test the $4.80 support and possibly fall straight through if metal prices don't hold up.

Trading below 11 day MA. 
Hugging the bottom Bollinger band.
MACD Looks sick like a dog. Still in its down trend.
Prices still in its down trend on not so small volume.

The only good indicator is the stochastics but that doesn't mean athing with out the others.

IMO this is stupid to buy with out some sort of turn around indicators.

Can we go short on this?


----------



## porkpie324 (5 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Going by todays action it appears as if KZL may be finding some support. porkpie


----------



## reece55 (5 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Pat
I'm not sure I would be looking to go short here now........ The stock has been given a fair workout since October and whilst the price of Zn appears to be in a bit of trouble, this appears well and truly factored in. I think we will see a little bit of a bounce here after todays wreckage..... Could be wrong, but today saw some bargain hunters collecting up some of the stock at the $5.00 level. Only time will tell. Short below about 4.80, which is the support level established in October.

Cheers


----------



## pacer (5 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Gap number one on low vol....gap no. 2 on low vol.....buy......if it gaps again buy more..... if it gaps again buy more......then hold for the ride down, or the big profits stolen from the panic sellers....lesson learnt a while back....still a good company and holds promise....DYOR....I dont hold any since the peak.

Zinc will probably rise again shortly....but what would I know?


----------



## CanOz (5 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

You know, pull up any zincer's chart and you'll capitulation. The final transfer of stock from weaker hands to strong holders. Big sell off, lots of volume but with the price closing off the low, and even higher than the open in most cases.

I smell a buying opportunity.  

Cheers,


----------



## Halba (5 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

what a disaster. i bailed @ 7.19 feeling smartass

however i still hold heaps of zinc, most of em will come back for sure


----------



## Out Too Soon (9 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> what a disaster. i bailed @ 7.19 feeling smartass
> 
> however i still hold heaps of zinc, most of em will come back for sure



I sold @ 7.28 last November (Luck not skill), must be nearly time to get back in, I think it depends on Chinas position. Is China going to need to import Zinc in the near future when demand outstrips supply again?


----------



## Halba (9 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

kzl seems destined for 4.50

a lot of gaps to fill

+ it is more kagara copper these days not zinc!!


----------



## Kauri (9 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

At an interesting stage...


----------



## reece55 (9 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Agreed Kauri, I am very tempted to open a long position here.... the bleeding appears to have stopped, copper is looking a bit stronger........ Thanks for the wave count, that's my take as well (albeit a much more junior EW learner than yourself). Wonder what Nick feels about the stock - still good for a wave 5 spike or will we see another move down? I favour another upward movement. Fundamentals still look good as well.

Cheers


----------



## Kauri (9 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				reece55 said:
			
		

> Agreed Kauri, I am very tempted to open a long position here.... the bleeding appears to have stopped, copper is looking a bit stronger........ Thanks for the wave count, that's my take as well (albeit a much more junior EW learner than yourself). Wonder what Nick feels about the stock - still good for a wave 5 spike or will we see another move down? I favour another upward movement. Fundamentals still look good as well.
> 
> Cheers



  Hi Reece..
               I'm just starting out on E/W too, so don't put too much faith in my charts/counts...
   I'm watching to see if some solid buying support with positive price action comes in suggesting a bottom, so far apart from the count and T/L's there isn't too much inspiring for mine. A minor impulsive W1 and W2 retrace would be nice to see, I'd be tempted to hitch a ride if an impulsive minor W3 then developed.. mind you I've been left standing at the bus stop watching the bus dissapear into the distance more often than not


----------



## Deadcat (9 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

KZL was featured in Feb edition of Money Magazine as a Top Ten Stock for 2007.  Goldman Sachs JBWere expects net profit to soar in 2007 to $191.2 million.


----------



## Bush Trader (9 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

KZL Weekly v all resources index (12 months) 

May be oversold compared to the average of it's mates!

Cheers


----------



## reece55 (9 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Deadcat said:
			
		

> KZL was featured in Feb edition of Money Magazine as a Top Ten Stock for 2007.  Goldman Sachs JBWere expects net profit to soar in 2007 to $191.2 million.




Deadcat
KZL's forecast is $175 Mil per the quarterly poduction report (Not sure if the Goldman Sachs prediction was based on earlier predictions) - still, considering their now reduced market cap due to the $3.00 fall since the highs, this means the share is trading at a pe of just under six - round about the same as ZFX. But KZL isn't a pure zinc play - they have copper in the mix as well, so fundamentally I would expect it should trade at a higher pe than ZFX.

Kauri, sure I appreciate that a pure technical entry would be after a retrace in a  minor wave 2 to cath the minor wave 3 - I just think we might find it will move a little quicker - could well be wrong. Best of luck to all holders.

Cheers


----------



## porkpie324 (9 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

If looking at a technical entry  to KZL the MACD is still going south, I was badly singed with KZL in Jan, I opened a long pos on 11th saw it rise initially then only to fall away sharply so I'm a bit hesitant yet, porkpie


----------



## michael_selway (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				porkpie324 said:
			
		

> If looking at a technical entry  to KZL the MACD is still going south, I was badly singed with KZL in Jan, I opened a long pos on 11th saw it rise initially then only to fall away sharply so I'm a bit hesitant yet, porkpie




Its not expensive atm

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 16.8 66.2 76.9 77.2 
DPS 0.0 16.6 17.5 21.7 * 

thx

MS


----------



## Halba (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

i wouldn't touch this with a ten foot pole to be honest

Mungana's going to be delayed to late 2008, and full proddy only in 2009

Admiral Bay is just too deep and in WA

their nickel not coming out until 2010

long wait for investors, and the premium is undeserved


----------



## rederob (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

halba
The best time to buy a good equity is when the price is at or near a cycle low.
Kagara has hedged its copper at very favourable prices, while its share prices is now linked to an expected continuing decline in the price of zinc.
Zinc inventories have hardly moved in a few months despite massive Chinese destocking.
I expect that later in the year Kagara will reclaim its former highs, in some part due to its continued move to diversify.
I don't expect 2007 to repeat the great year it was in 2006 for zinc, however, the bulls know that hibernation is a many months-long affair: Something the bears are always asleep to!


----------



## nizar (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> i wouldn't touch this with a ten foot pole to be honest




I second that.


----------



## nizar (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> halba
> The best time to buy a good equity is when the price is at or near a cycle low.




I beg to differ.
I think the best time to buy an equity is when the price is at an all time high, with little or no or very historical overhead resistance.

Of course if you buy KZL at $5 and it goes to $10 you make more money than somebody who waits until the price is $8. But by buying at what you think is the *low* may only be the low 1 or 2/10 times, but if you buy at an all time high, there's probably 8 or 9/10 chance that it will keep going up.

Id rather wait until the stock is in a clear uptrend.


----------



## Kauri (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> halba
> The best time to buy a good equity is when the price is at or near a cycle low.




  How do you recognise that the cycle low is locked in, without using hindsight??


----------



## porkpie324 (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Probably the safest way to try and pick a cycle low is when the price is trending higher but the minor cycle is an oversold situation during the major upward trend. I have had success with KZL (and others) with this method, but as I said in earlier posts I was caught out during Jan , luckily the position was closed before it got too serious, and with money managment meant I was not over overexposed. I will now wait until KZL's trend has changed, which will happen, but as KAURI mentioned  picking the absolute bottom is a guessing game. porkpie


----------



## rederob (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> How do you recognise that the cycle low is locked in, without using hindsight??



Kauri
How do you trade without taking any forward view of the market, technically or fundamentally?


----------



## michael_selway (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> I beg to differ.
> I think the best time to buy an equity is when the price is at an all time high, with little or no or very historical overhead resistance.
> 
> Of course if you buy KZL at $5 and it goes to $10 you make more money than somebody who waits until the price is $8. But by buying at what you think is the *low* may only be the low 1 or 2/10 times, but if you buy at an all time high, there's probably 8 or 9/10 chance that it will keep going up.
> ...




not true, its about true value

doesnt matter if has been goign up, cause you are gettign ripped off if u try and chase it higher when its already overvalued. Might go up, but someone will be burned eventually.

So in that sense, buying something that has fallen can be better, but you have to value it properly, looking at new and updated future EPS & cashflow etc

thx

MS


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> i wouldn't touch this with a ten foot pole to be honest
> 
> Mungana's going to be delayed to late 2008, and full proddy only in 2009
> 
> ...




All known to the market when KZL's share price was approaching $8.00. 
As for Admiral Bay being in WA, so what, you mine were the deposits are!, not to mention KZL is based in West Oz.Probably a good idea they expand out of QLD with their FF deposit and Admiral Bay, should justify them being based in West Perth.

Look at how much holders of Zinc equities and hedge funds returned in 06. 

Didn't take much of a shift to blow off some hype and necesitate the slowpokes to lock in their dwindling profits. Same slowpokes that probably entered at the top of the curve, blue sky and all  .

IMO not much has changed for KZL fundamentally in recent months, except its share price and a overdone pullback in Zinc spot. With the exception of KZL reaping in bulk cash for 06, picking up a great potential Nickle target, increasing production and ramping a new mine and paying its maiden divvy.

You'll never hear a winge out of me on KZL, its paid for a significant portion of my trading portfolio and to a lesser extent some of my longtermers.


----------



## reece55 (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> not true, its about true value
> 
> doesnt matter if has been goign up, cause you are gettign ripped off if u try and chase it higher when its already overvalued. Might go up, but someone will be burned eventually.
> 
> ...




Hi Michael
Your point does makes sense over the long term here...... but......

Stocks often go against the fundamental picture - why, because we don't all know what the future holds - this is what the chart tells us. Whilst a Company might be overvalued, when a stock reaches a new high, on high volume with a nice breakout, you have a much better chance of it going higher than if you try to pick a bottom, irrespective of the fundamental picture. Look at tech's model - he doesn't do an analysis on the DCF value of the firm, he gets the entry point, checks the graph and if it meets his risk/reward his in - and his stats talk for themselves.

In saying this however, I personally wouldn't wait until $8 to get back in on this one - if you ask me, the valuation is exceedingly cheap now from a fundamental perspective. They have locked in their copper using hedging at a great rate (as someone else mentioned previously) and will be a cash cow in the future - capped at $1 Bil, the profits will pay this off in 4 - 5 years! Kauri's suggestion here would be ideal - wait for a minor wave 3 entry here and catch the wave - one to watch out for IMO.

Cheers


----------



## Kauri (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Kauri
> How do you trade without taking any forward view of the market, technically or fundamentally?




Red,
I take a view of the current position. If signs are there that indicate a bottom may have formed I set certain hurdles that have to be acheived before I enter. Back in this thread on 18 Jan I thought Kzl may have bottomed and posted _my entry hurdles_. They weren't met and I didn't enter. Currently I take the forward view that she may have reached bottom and have once again set entry hurdles that will tip the odds in favour of confirming this. Depending on whether or not they are met will decide whether I enter or not. 
To say that the best place to enter is at or near the cycle low cannot be disputed, I was merely trying to expand my knowledge by asking how you determine that the low has been locked in.


----------



## nizar (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> not true, its about true value
> 
> doesnt matter if has been goign up, cause you are gettign ripped off if u try and chase it higher when its already overvalued. Might go up, but someone will be burned eventually.
> 
> ...




Value means nothing.
Future eps is a guessing game.

Share prices can go from undervalued to overvalued to even more overvalued. If you sold whenever true value was reached you would be missing out on big profits.

Also some share prices can stay undervalued for years and years.

You have to look at the TREND.

Each to his own, but my method has worked well FOR ME.


----------



## Dukey (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

So - as a 'I'm not-a-chartists-a-hole' kinda question.
At what SP now, would folks (anyone) say the reversal has been confirmed as an uptrend?
Would you base it on the possible resistance line in Sept and say ... 5.50 ish?? or is that too late?


----------



## rederob (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Red,
> I take a view of the current position. If signs are there that indicate a bottom may have formed I set certain hurdles that have to be achieved before I enter. Back in this thread on 18 Jan I thought Kzl may have bottomed and posted _my entry hurdles_. They weren't met and I didn't enter. Currently I take the forward view that she may have reached bottom and have once again set entry hurdles that will tip the odds in favour of confirming this. Depending on whether or not they are met will decide whether I enter or not.
> To say that the best place to enter is at or near the cycle low cannot be disputed, I was merely trying to expand my knowledge by asking how you determine that the low has been locked in.



Kauri
Your forward view and your entry hurdles are quite alike.
As your entry hurdle is simply a forward view after the fact: The "fact" being that you now hold a view that the likelihood of a profitable trade is very much in your favour: Correct me if I err.
As I began buying KZL when it was still in the $2 range a year ago (after its late Jan 2006 correction) and am now "fully invested" (ie am not going to add any more), I won't being adding more right now.
However, were I in the market for more zinc, I would have bought last week as it hit my "value" trigger last Tuesday at $5.
For the next few months I will seldom see the trading screens during the day as my real job won't afford me that luxury.
So my trading style remains very long term, and my forward views are equally in keeping.
My forward view for zinc is that it will rebound firmly in price as the year goes by, and drag the likes of KZL with it.
I will let the market do what it has to do, and I will continue to adapt my investment decisions as I see fit.
For now that still leaves me with a lot of latitude to exit KZL in profit should the fundamentals clearly change.
Accordingly, I continue to pay more attention to following market fundamentals than price.


----------



## barney (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Howdy lads, Just my 2 bobs worth, (Fundamentally I'll take freeball's advice on the state of KZL cause thats not my strong suit).  From a purely technical pov. I think we have just about seen the bottom here ..... Why??.......

1) We have reached an old support level from September around $5 (and that support was formed after a healthy little spike up from $4.50 ish, so that looks fairly solid to me

2) The last three months of downtrending imo have filled up just about all those gaps created by the exponential rise prior 

3) There is a solid base forming atm (last 5 days)  

4) The volume has been decreasing as the sell off has neared its current level

5) MACD showing typical signs of a trend change

Entry criteria at this point could be simply for the sp to rise and stabilise above the $5.10 mark ........ or wait for the base to consolidate further (maybe a double bottom will form over the next week or so)

It does look possible that it could retrace further to $4.50, but that would be surprising, and if it did, that represents another very strong support level, so all in all the upside is starting to look more inviting than the downside.

Still relatively new to TA so all the above to be taken with a grain of salt. (PS I don't hold atm, but am watching closely)


----------



## Kauri (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Kauri
> Your forward view and your entry hurdles are quite alike.
> As your entry hurdle is simply a forward view after the fact:





    My current view is that it *may* have formed a bottom.
           My forward view is *dependant on entry hurdles being met/not met*, therefore forward view depends on entry hurdles. As such, I don't hold a forward view, yet.
           My original query was....


> How do you recognise that the cycle low is locked in, without using hindsight??



           also add to that query, how did you arrive at $5.00??


> However, were I in the market for more zinc, I would have bought last week as it hit my "value" trigger last Tuesday at $5.


----------



## barney (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

My apologies for that messy chart I posted. It was not meant to have all the B/Bands + MA's etc, so I have posted the "neat" version


----------



## nizar (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Red,

Just curious where your stop is with this one?
You've just let it slip from about $7.80 to $5.00 in the last 2.5months, thats a fair bit of profit give back.


----------



## michael_selway (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Value means nothing.
> Future eps is a guessing game.
> 
> Share prices can go from undervalued to overvalued to even more overvalued. If you sold whenever true value was reached you would be missing out on big profits.
> ...




Warren Buffet i think once bought a company when every one was selling, it had been doing "badly" the share price. However in his view he thought it was undervalued in the future, so he bough the whoel company nearly. After a few years the company did really well etc

You mention missing out profits, but its better than losing money!, Ifs its truly "overvalued" then price will evenutally fall and you may not be ablt to get out quick enough (depends how high i bought at)

Yes it is a guessing game, you have to know about your product before you buy it, otherwise you may get ripped off. Also yes, you have do projections for the for future, external and internal factors that can affect EPS & cashflow of a company etc

thx

MS


----------



## rederob (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Kauri
If your entry hurdle *is * met what view do you have at that point?
a) none - take no position
b) one - take a position (short or long as it makes no difference because you have now decided the trade meets your criteria)

It is impossible to *not * have a forward view once you have taken a position, because logic determines that fact.  I am ruling out the possibility you act "unconsciously", although there is always a chance you press the wrong the wrong button when you act consciously (fat finger syndrome).

I did answer your question about when the cycle low occurs - it occurs as a known event after the event.  And subsequent cycle lows remain an ongoing possibility.

As for $5 for KZL, I use simple linear charts over a 3year time frame as a rule to determine where obvious lines of support occur.

nizar
My purchase price for WPL is $13.65 yet after I bought it it fell back down to around $10.
I could have sold it for well over $45 last April, and paid the tax office substantial capital gains tax.
I could have done the same to KZL in November 2006 and also paid the tax man handsomely.
Good companies bought cheaply (and I believe KZL represents a "cheap" purchase right now) have a habit of performing better than market averages, and that's all I need to do.
I am a very passive trader by comaprison to most that post at this site.


----------



## Kauri (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Kauri
> If your entry hurdle *is *met what view do you have at that point?
> a) none - take no position
> b) one - take a position (short or long as it makes no difference because you have now decided the trade meets your criteria)




Red...
  Apart from thinking the term  *entry hurdle*  was self explanatory, I thought I had explained my position after it was met. i.e.   _If signs are there that indicate a bottom may have formed I set certain hurdles that have to be acheived before I enter. Back in this thread on 18 Jan I thought Kzl may have bottomed and posted my entry hurdles. They weren't met and I didn't enter. Currently I take the forward view that she may have reached bottom and have once again set entry hurdles that will tip the odds in favour of confirming this. Depending on whether or not they are met will decide whether I enter or not. _
Sorry for the obvious confusion this seems to have caused.



> It is impossible to *not *have a forward view once you have taken a position, because logic determines that fact. I am ruling out the possibility you act "unconsciously", although there is always a chance you press the wrong the wrong button when you act consciously (fat finger syndrome).



         What in heavens name is this about.


----------



## Halba (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

interesting debate, but theres just better value elsewhere(concentrate on other stocks)


----------



## itchy (11 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

or u could just buy good quality stocks ie KZl when they have dropped a little, such as now and make a little more $$$ sure KZl may drop another 10 or 20%  but u can cut my balls of and BBQ them if KZL is not back up there within 5 months. fundamentally kagara is stronger  than itw as 3 months ago.  POZ cant rise forever with out falling a little, just like anything that is traded. ppl will want profit and everybodys strategy is different.
there is no poor time to purchase a stock to which u see has value in the future, there are only better times


----------



## rederob (12 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Kauri

My point is simple.
If you enter the trade, do you have a "forward view" or not?

Technical traders like to believe that what they are doing is very different to fundamental traders/investors because they use trading models based on set criteria ("entry hurdles" if you wish) to enter trades.

A technical model is set up on the premise that a "trade" has a greater likelihood of success because it has been tested and it works.

My "entry hurdle" can be as simple as a breach of long term support within an overall rising trend, or just view that a share's price does not match market fundamentals (my posts on MRE are an example).  I find these methods to be very successful.

I think at the end of the day both you and I wish to profit.  But I am deliberately picking on the semantics of a "forward view" versus "entry hurdle". 

I regard them as no different in essence, but significantly different in application.  That is, my forward view would have resulted in a "buy" of KZL last week.  Your hurdle has not yet been met.


----------



## rederob (12 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> interesting debate, but theres just better value elsewhere(concentrate on other stocks)



halba
I hereby accept your challenge and submit KZL at today's open price to be judged by a stock of your choice that represents "better value".
We shall then review the respective share prices in 2 months time.
Over to you.......


----------



## reece55 (12 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Well, I think the price movement today tells the story - KZL moved nicely today on large volume. Me thinks there is still value here!!!!!!

Question is: are we seeing a bounce or another move up.

Anyone take a position today?

Cheers


----------



## rederob (13 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> halba
> I hereby accept your challenge and submit KZL at today's open price to be judged by a stock of your choice that represents "better value".
> We shall then review the respective share prices in 2 months time.
> Over to you.......



halba
Are you not up to the challenge given your clear views on "value elsewhere"?


----------



## Jay-684 (22 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

no posting or interest on KZL for a while now...

dropped nicely recently and has recently been listed at a top 10 pick for 2007 in Money Magazine

what are peoples thoughts on the current situation?


----------



## Rafa (26 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

strong move up today,
the chart looks like its turned...

Any thoughts on this one?


----------



## Halba (26 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Nup i don't compete with others theres no point

Just my opinion that kzl is not good value at the moment. Its a copper producer, and copper stockpiles are increasing. Zinc demand has declined. ZFX looks much better value, why bother paying p/e 10x for KZL when zfx has p/e of 6x and much superior cashflow? Forget mine life - ZFX has more reserves and is valued much less $ per ton.

Check the figures have a go.


----------



## flinders (26 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

had this on watch list from early feb when started to turn,my charts showed breakout at 5.45/50. entered fri.reckon good to run to close $6


----------



## Out Too Soon (26 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> Nup i don't compete with others theres no point
> 
> Just my opinion that kzl is not good value at the moment. Its a copper producer, and copper stockpiles are increasing. Zinc demand has declined. ZFX looks much better value, why bother paying p/e 10x for KZL when zfx has p/e of 6x and much superior cashflow? Forget mine life - ZFX has more reserves and is valued much less $ per ton.
> 
> Check the figures have a go.




I thought it was a fair challenge! no ones going to hang you for sharing, that's what the forum is supposed to be about.


----------



## Rafa (27 February 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

substantial holding notice out from CBA,
they obviously think KZL was in a good buy range.


----------



## toothfairy (3 March 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



			
				Rafa said:
			
		

> substantial holding notice out from CBA,
> they obviously think KZL was in a good buy range.



What's happening to it for the last few days? It's even better value now!


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (3 March 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Chronic timing for its run unfortunately, CBA taking a position pushing through resistance at 5.50 and closing at highs of 5.90............before Wednesday.

Could be just trying to find some fair value ATM during these times of uncertainty, 4.90ish is next support if its pressured by those jumping ship.

Cheers


----------



## Pat (28 March 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



dj_420 said:


> KZL has just broken support IMO. there was a support level around 5.55 but broke that today.
> 
> with copper and zinc prices dropping i see the potential downside around next support levels around 4.55 and 4.80 ish i believe.
> 
> ...




Looks like it's bounced of your support DJ.
Seems to have formed a nice base at $4.80.


----------



## nizar (27 April 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

So who and how do you pick up cheapies??

A few trades went through at 7:49am this morning, and some of them for as low as $5!


----------



## dj_420 (27 April 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

yeah wish that was me, is it sophisticated investors that pick them up? i dont really understand, is it offmarket trades and then the broker informs ASX in the morning or what?


----------



## MiningGuru (27 April 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Finished strongly today.

Is there a potential takeover of this in the wind?

Someone is accumulating.

Strong finish on a down day for mining stocks!


----------



## Ken (27 April 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I received the following email this morning via email - I hope I am not breaking in rules but this is what I received.  I didnt buy, dont hold, and dont plan to.



> THIS WEEKS STOCK IS Kagara Zinc Ltd (KZL)
> 
> Kagara Zinc Limited (KZL) is a base metals exploration, development and mining company. KZL is primarily focused on base metals production at the Mt Garnet Zinc project, establishment of a second base metals plant near Chillagoe, copper production at Thalanga, development of a large scale underground copper/gold mine at Mungana and assessment of the Admiral Bay lead/zinc/silver deposit.
> 
> ...


----------



## michael_selway (27 April 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



Ken said:


> I received the following email this morning via email - I hope I am not breaking in rules but this is what I received.  I didnt buy, dont hold, and dont plan to.




It has nice numbers

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 16.8 56.5 70.7 62.2 
DPS 0.0 15.0 19.0 16.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 56.5 10.6 236.5% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 70.7 8.5 25.1% *

thx

MS


----------



## svensk (29 April 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

From a TA perspective, things are looking nice. Recently broken through resistance on good volume, combined with a positive looking rsi and macd, and the fact the sp is straddling the upper bollinger band, all signs seem to point to continued bullish behaviour.

The recent outbreak has triggered a buy signal according to my trading criteria, but i'll be papertrading this one. Hopefully all goes well 

edit: sorry for the blurry picture. Still working out how to attach awesome charts


----------



## PureCoco (21 May 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Kagara Zinc Ltd has been in a trading halt since Friday last week any idea why?  the Market depth is showing some person/s putting in buys of 268 amounts of different prices but continuously why would you do that?


----------



## YELNATS (21 May 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



PureCoco said:


> Kagara Zinc Ltd has been in a trading halt since Friday last week any idea why?  the Market depth is showing some person/s putting in buys of 268 amounts of different prices but continuously why would you do that?




And those buy amounts are all well above the last price of $6.18? Are there any rumours in the market of a takeover for KZL?


----------



## PureCoco (21 May 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I think some one is having a joke with all these 268 buys in perfect 5 cent increments up to $8.35 now whilst the first sell is $6. I honestly think it is some smarty putting in buys for the day only.  Almost computer generated if you look at the increase in buys.

Otherwise, someone knows something but odd might be OCD


----------



## Dukey (21 May 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



PureCoco said:


> I think some one is having a joke with all these 268 buys in perfect 5 cent increments up to $8.35 now whilst the first sell is $6. I honestly think it is some smarty putting in buys for the day only.  Almost computer generated if you look at the increase in buys.
> 
> Otherwise, someone knows something but odd might be OCD




This is really fishy huh??  And with Trading halt since friday... could be good or bad news coming - but with this mob I'd bet on positive news rather than neg & I can tell you - I REALLY wish I still had my KZL shares just now :bonktook profits some time back). 
I have no idea whats coming for KZL - but Re-opening could be very very interesting.
Good luck to all holding ...
-May your chooks turn into emus and peck your dunny down :mexico:.


----------



## PureCoco (21 May 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Well I was right.  It was some OCD person stirring the market with the 5 cent increments.  They have all disappeared now!  If the intent was to arouse buyer interest it worked.  

Isn't it a bit naughty though.  Lead up the garden path.  Well I hope the announcement will be worth it and last.  I think that sort of behaviour should be banned. A sort of ramping perhaps?


----------



## delta05 (22 May 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

There was a big block of shares purchased in the last few minutes before close on Friday, before the trading halt.


----------



## YELNATS (22 May 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Just announced by KZL at 2:32 pm today:

First paragraph reads:

Quote

The directors of Kagara Zinc Ltd are pleased to advise shareholders that initial extension drilling of the high grade Red Dome gold-copper-silver-molybdenum poryhyry deposit has considerably enhanced the probability of a major gold development centred on Mungana and Red Dome.

Unquote


----------



## YELNATS (22 May 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Trading halt is over, fantastic initial market response to the annoucement, up 11% to $6.84. regards YN


----------



## Love Zn (20 June 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Just wondering what people's thoughts are regarding next resistance is? Looks like support around $6.80 or if it falls through at $6.45 and next resistance at $7.40-42.

Weekly chart to take some of the daily noise out


----------



## Col Lector (10 August 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Promising results at Admirals Bay project WA.....announcement this afternoon. Plenty of holes to go so expect drill results to gain market interest once turbulence settles.


> Kagara Zinc Ltd is pleased to announce that ABRD001, the first diamond drill hole completed by
> Kagara at the Admiral Bay zinc lead silver deposit, has returned high grade assay results of
> 8.3% zinc and 4.9% lead over a 20 metre interval from 1,321 metres to 1,341 metres. This
> interval, which approximates a true width, includes a very high grade 6 metre interval from
> 1,326 metres grading 18.5% zinc and 5.4% lead. Assays for silver and barium are awaited.


----------



## YELNATS (18 September 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Another trading halt called for KZL at 9.49 am today. Wondering how significant the (favourable?) news will be?


----------



## Aargh! (18 September 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Good announcement I think. Shown 2.5 million tonnes at Mungana and King Vol.
With this volume and grade expect a processing plant at Mungana.


----------



## michael_selway (18 September 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



Aargh! said:


> Good announcement I think. Shown 2.5 million tonnes at Mungana and King Vol.
> With this volume and grade expect a processing plant at Mungana.




Not a bad annoucement

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 40.7 64.9 65.2 62.3 
DPS 0.0 16.0 19.5 22.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## Aargh! (22 October 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Can anyone tell me if the announcement today re Waterloo was expected???
The timing just struck me as odd for some reason (4:05pm) and made me think that this was to perhaps keep the SP over $6... Seemed like they have used one of the cards up their sleeves.


----------



## Dukey (30 October 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Seems to have been a good response to yesterdays announcement re Admiral Bay.

> KZL looks to be on the rise again!!  up 42 cents today so far...


----------



## legs (20 November 2007)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Up 3.73% today, is it on rumours of a Oxiana Takeover?? I haven't heard a thing for a few days. Anyone got any idea?


----------



## Aargh! (29 January 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

KZL has been hammered in recent weeks after a 12% drop in before tax profit and seasonal rains. Interesting to see Kim Robinson snap up 400,000 shares at $3.70 equaling a cool $1.48m!


----------



## treefrog (3 February 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



Aargh! said:


> KZL has been hammered in recent weeks after a 12% drop in before tax profit and seasonal rains. Interesting to see Kim Robinson snap up 400,000 shares at $3.70 equaling a cool $1.48m!




with zinc falling and further to go this year may see $3:00 before a real turn - earnings growth forecasts not impressive and CBA continues to bail out


----------



## rederob (3 February 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



treefrog said:


> with zinc falling and further to go this year may see $3:00 before a real turn - earnings growth forecasts not impressive and CBA continues to bail out



Don't count those chickens yet.
Kagara is leveraged to copper, and zinc is more of a by-play.
However, with zinc refining capacity in China constrained by power outages there will be a good rebound in prices within the month.  Moreover, the continually touted zinc oversupply has not shown itself to any degree, and inventories remain near cyclical lows.
I suspect "flooding" would be of more concern to Kagara than the metals' fundamentals.
(I do not hold KZL, but am a keen follower.)


----------



## MRC & Co (20 February 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Any thoughts on this one lately?  Got a very high ROE (good for those fundies) and on a nice uptrend (good for those techies).  Not to mention some decent growth potential!


----------



## roland (20 February 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

whilst having a look at Zinifex, I have put a couple of graphs together to include KZL (used to have, now I just have ZFX). Obviously KZL is heavily influenced by the LME Zinc price, but have better swings than Zinifex - maybe because of the influences of their copper etc.


----------



## michael_selway (20 February 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



MRC & Co said:


> Any thoughts on this one lately?  Got a very high ROE (good for those fundies) and on a nice uptrend (good for those techies).  Not to mention some decent growth potential!




KZL is actually not too bad if you can buy it low, I have a fellign ZInc Price could make a come back, like Lead and copper have not certain though

Thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 40.7 40.8 49.7 66.2 
DPS 22.0 14.0 15.0 19.5 *



> Diversified resources group Kagara Ltd (ASX: KZL) has reinforced its position as a low-cost, high-margin
> base metals producer, today announcing a A$35.9 million net profit after tax (2006: A$38.9 million) for the
> 6 months to 31 December 2007 despite the significant pull-back in metal prices seen during the latter part of
> 2007.
> ...


----------



## MRC & Co (20 February 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Interesting charts Roland, agree on the comparison and the reason for the differences in the charts.

Michael, how do you define "low"?  Based on your signature and a quick calculation, I would say this is a fairly low price!

Good to see some future gold exposure too with this one at Mungana.


----------



## GREENS (8 April 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australian copper and zinc producer Kagara Ltd. (KZL.AU) is considering the sale of its Lounge Lizard nickel project and use the proceeds to develop its A$1.2 billion Admiral Bay zinc-lead project, Chief Executive Kim Robinson said Tuesday. 

Not what I had in mind for Kagara’s nickel tenants in WA. Initial results from Lounge Lizard have been very encouraging. With the demand for nickel closely aligned with that for iron ore, you would think the fundamentals for the metal are very strong at present and into the foreseeable future. A lot of the big miners such as RIO and BHP are trying to lift their nickel exposure, as well as the mid tier ranks such as ZinOx. These companies wouldn’t be investing so much in the metal if they didn’t see a future. 

Kagara and nickel I thought would be an excellent exposure rounding off the company’s balanced exposure to base and precious metals. I think I’d much prefer to see the company sell some of its interest in the large Admiral Bay project (i.e. reduce the operational and cost risks) whilst maintaining full or even slightly reduced ownership in their WA nickel operations. If they offload their nickel assets to fund the Admiral Bay project and retain 100% ownership, their share price will become a near perfect positive correlation to the zinc price. Not so sure I want that kind of exposure to just the one metal. I know they will have some significant copper and gold projects in production by the time AB gets up and running, but I still think the company will be viewed purely as a zinc exposure for investors, leaving many wanting exposure to other base metals particularly copper to flee. 

Also Very interesting to note that some big players have shown strong interest as a JV partner in the AB project.  

Article below. 

"We would probably put Lounge Lizard on the market, but at the right price. To do that, we need to identify the potential before considering a disposal of the asset. But it would be an opportunity to put the money towards Admiral Bay and it certainly would make a lot of sense for us," Robinson told reporters. 

Kagara hopes to come up with a reserve for Lounge Lizard by the end of the year. 

Admiral Bay has been touted as the next century zinc mine, and could be in production at a rate of about 380,000 metric tons of zinc, 180,000 tons of lead and 5.5 million troy ounces of silver from about 2012, making it one of the world's biggest zinc mines. 

Rio Tinto previously owned the project in Western Australia but never developed it, selling it to Kagara for A$2.5 million in 2004. 
While Kagara would like to keep 100% of the project, it may have to look for a joint venture partner to help shoulder some of the development process, Robinson said. 

BHP Billiton Ltd., Vedanta Resources Ltd., Xstrata Plc, Sumitomo Corp. and Kagara's largest stakeholder Korea Zinc Co Ltd. have all expressed interest in forming a partnership, he said. 

Korea Zinc holds a 14.2% stake in the company. 

"Korea Zinc would be the natural partner for the project," said Robinson, adding that the same would be true for nickel miner Western Areas N.L. (WSA.AU) in terms of a potential acquisition of the Lounge Lizard project, also in Western Australia. 

But miners such as Zinifex Ltd. may also be interested after stating a long-term nickel production target of 100,000 tons a year, he said. 

Kagara bought the nickel prospect for A$25 million from LionOre in 2006. The tenements are directly adjacent to Western Areas' Flying Fox nickel mine, and already share some of the mining infrastructure. 

Robinson said analysts were "unjustifiably negative" about the zinc market. 
"There is an assumption that everyone will stay in production. There are companies struggling to turn a profit following the fall in zinc prices, and certainly some producers are going to stop output," he said. 

"The fall in zinc prices will also stop some deposits going into production, and talk of certain projects has notably stopped," Robinson said, without specifying. 

London Metal Exchange zinc prices have fallen from lofty heights of $4,580/ton at the end of 2006 to around $2,400/ton. 

Kagara was budgeting a zinc price of $2,500/ton for 2008, Robinson said.


----------



## MRC & Co (7 May 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Well KZL broke out of a box a few days ago which I was lucky enough to catch.  Resistance sitting just up above of its current price, but RSI shows a positive divergence.  Looks strong at the moment, could see a consolidation around the overhead resistance level and then a further run.......


----------



## MRC & Co (14 May 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



MRC & Co said:


> Well KZL broke out of a box a few days ago which I was lucky enough to catch.  Resistance sitting just up above of its current price, but RSI shows a positive divergence.  Looks strong at the moment, could see a consolidation around the overhead resistance level and then a further run.......




Well as expected, made it to resistance and I sold to make a 60c profit on this trade per share.

Not looking promising for a break though, with the effort (volume, range), and outcome (close) both poor.  

Great trading stock, so I will be looking for another consolidation and then a push through this level (where I will buy) to next resistance of around 6.30.

Cheers


----------



## mino (13 July 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Hi, I am new with stock, but does anyone have any idea why the price of KZL tends to dive down, even last friday when most of the mining stocks prices went up, kzl looks steady (0.00% change).

What's been happening with them? I saw a buy recommendation from one of the national finance magazine about this company, but have been following it from past 2 months, it doesn't look promising. 

Comments anyone?


----------



## skunkmonkey (5 August 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

What a mess.  A bad day on the market and KZL closed at $2.85 today.    It crawls up but it always drops so fast ...


----------



## AjD (22 August 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Anyone know what is brewing down at Kagara?? Trading halt until Mon 25th...

But why the difference between "bid" and "offer" last time i checked there was about $1 diff between the two??!!


----------



## YELNATS (22 August 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



AjD said:


> Anyone know what is brewing down at Kagara?? Trading halt until Mon 25th...




According to Kagara an announcement is pending concerning their Admiral Bay Zinc Project.

Due to the fall in POZ maybe they are thinking of offloading or jv-ing it, to OZL perhaps?  

From the Kagara website:
Quote
Admiral Bay Zinc Project 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Major undeveloped zinc deposit with significant discovery upside 
Discovered in 1981 and explored by CRA Exploration 
Acquired by Kagara in 2004 
Landmark A$15 million drilling program underway in 2007 
Targeting inferred resource of 50-75 million tonnes of zinc 
The undeveloped Admiral Bay Zinc Project is potentially a world class lead-zinc-silver deposit located 140km south of Broome in the Kimberley region of Western Australia.
Unquote


----------



## YELNATS (22 August 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Announcement came out at 12.24 pm today:

Quote
Kagara is pleased to announce an initial resource estimate for the Admiral Bay deposit containing an Inferred resource of 72 million tonnes at a grade of 3.1% zinc, 2.9% lead, 18 grams per tonne silver and 11% barium reported at a nominal 2% zinc equivalent cutoff.
Unquote

Market seems to like it, up 7.6% at the moment.


----------



## GREENS (22 August 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



YELNATS said:


> According to Kagara an announcement is pending concerning their Admiral Bay Zinc Project.
> 
> Due to the fall in POZ maybe they are thinking of offloading or jv-ing it, to OZL perhaps?






YELNATS said:


> Market seems to like it, up 7.6% at the moment.




Yep and why wouldn’t it. 

They definitely will not be offloading this project, this looks like it will probably surpass the likes of Century. This could play out to be a very sound purchase by Kagara. 

It’s not only that this deposit is one of the largest undeveloped zinc mines in the world, but the fact that it will also be one of the lowest cost mines. Given that the cost of production is expected to be in the lowest quartile of cash costs worldwide, this will ensure very healthy margins even at current or lower zinc prices. 

Also it is important to realise the fact that this is just an initial resource of a measly 72Mt’s @ 3.1% Zn, 2.9% Ld, 18g/t Ag & 11% Barium after drilling only 2.1km of an 18km known strike length of mineralisation. While massive already, this deposit has the potential to be a monster and sustain a mine life of half a century, which is a key reason why the likes of BHP, Xstrata, Tech Cominco and even more majors are wanting a piece of the action as a JV partner in this project. 

With mine development costs expected to exceed well over $1B, it would seem logical that they would have to take on a JV partner (as you say suggest yelants) or sell their nickel ground - if it turns out to have the goods, to have any chance of bringing this mine into production.


----------



## basilio (18 November 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Any thoughts about KZL at the moment ? Being butchered on the market and currently at 40c. But it is still producing copper and zinc at a reasonable profit and theoretically yielding 30% ! On all its statements this company should be worth far more and recover strongly. Have I missed something?


----------



## oldblue (18 November 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



basilio said:


> Any thoughts about KZL at the moment ? Being butchered on the market and currently at 40c. But it is still producing copper and zinc at a reasonable profit and theoretically yielding 30% ! On all its statements this company should be worth far more and recover strongly. Have I missed something?




I doubt that you've missed anything.
KZL is just another unloved metals stock. The market sees the price of zinc, copper etc  continuing to fall and no reason to buy.


----------



## jonnycage (18 November 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

im with ya,  again its just shear fear taking complete control.

im still holding stock,  just turning off the share price at this stage (along
with the others ... lol)


i guess all we can do is hurry up and await some kind of recovery ? not
a guarantee lol


----------



## doogie_goes_off (3 December 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

It has been a reasonable recovery in recent days. Althought the nickel price is dead, it's amazing grades and the high grade 261000 tonnes at Lounge Lizard that still attracts me to this one. I wonder whether they can make a profit at these Pb/Zn prices? I wish I had thought 36c is too cheap a little harder. Anyway one to watch if the market recovers next year.


----------



## GREENS (4 December 2008)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

DGO, I think if Lounge Lizard is to go ahead in the current environment (near term), they are going to have to strike some sought of a deal with Western Areas NL to use their decline.  Also if you look at current and forecasted nickel cash costs at Flying Fox (US$2-$US2.50/lb), you would have to think LL would be very similar which makes the high grade ore still quite attractive to mine at just over $US4/lb. That is still an operating cash margin of around 37.5-50%. 

The initial high grade resource initially announced in July stood at 263,000t @ 6.4% Ni (16,832t of contained nickel) with drill results from the upper T4 extension area excluded. Since this initial resource more high grade intersection have been returned in the both the T5 and T4 area extensions. These include: 

•LFPD18W2W1W1 – 140.27m @ 1.5% Ni = *17.24m @ 1.4%, 9.03m @7.8%, 13m @ 3.1%* & 101m @ 0.75%. 
•LFPD18W2W1 – 76.6m @ 3.3% Ni = *27m @ 6.1%, 7.56m @ 8.1%, 2.3m @ 6.9%* & 39.74m @ 0.23%. 
•LFPD18W3W3W1 – 62.00m @ 3.2% Ni =  *10.00m @ 7.5%, 12.3m @ 5.2%,  4.48m @ 9.2%* & 35.22m @ 0.52%


In terms of the companies copper and zinc operations, all operations are generating positive cash flows. In a recent announcement they said cash costs for the coming and hopefully prevailing quarters would be <$US1.30/lb of payable copper and <$US0.40/lb of payable zinc. But I would suspect with exploration drilling only continuing at LL that most free cash flow would be going towards paying down the companies’ debt which falls due in 2 instalments throughout 2009 with the larger facility due in Oct.


----------



## aussiger (5 January 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I think this company is a good investment for the not the far future, because when economy arise again, the prices for metals will be pushed back into the old highs. The demand for zinc & copper will increase rapidly and then this company will earn much money again.

If you take a look at this chart, you can see that before the big financial crisis appears in the news (crisis still began in 2007), KZL was a long time over $4 

It is very possible that KZL reaches this old values again.


----------



## oldblue (5 January 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



aussiger said:


> I think this company is a good investment for the not the far future, because when economy arise again, the prices for metals will be pushed back into the old highs. The demand for zinc & copper will increase rapidly and then this company will earn much money again.
> 
> If you take a look at this chart, you can see that before the big financial crisis appears in the news (crisis still began in 2007), KZL was a long time over $4
> 
> It is very possible that KZL reaches this old values again.




You may well be right but the recent big drop in KZL's SP correlates more to the price of zinc than to how the "financial crisis" has panned out, IMO.
The SP drop from around $3 to 50c has occurred over the period from early Sept during which the PoZ has dropped from around 80cUS per lb to 50c.


----------



## doogie_goes_off (6 January 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I got out of this one after jumping in at 36c, I got spooked that commodity prices were not going to recover and wish I had hung on now (oh hindsight is a wonderful thing!)


----------



## dmagnus (30 January 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



doogie_goes_off said:


> I got out of this one after jumping in at 36c, I got spooked that commodity prices were not going to recover and wish I had hung on now (oh hindsight is a wonderful thing!)




well I see operational cashflow and current cash as not sufficient to pay back debts which are due at end of march... could be bad news for these guys...


----------



## trillionaire#1 (30 January 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

www.bloomberg.com :Kagara ltd has agreed to sell as much as 10 percent 
stake in the company to a customer to bolster its balance sheet.
       ------------------------------------------------------------
when Kagara went into  a trading halt this morning i was assuming a large 
capital raising from existing share holders, diluting my and other shareholders
piece of the Kagara Zinc pie.

im hoping  this could be somewhat helpfull to the SP.
what do others think?


----------



## UMike (1 February 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



trillionaire#1 said:


> www.bloomberg.com :Kagara ltd has agreed to sell as much as 10 percent
> stake in the company to a customer to bolster its balance sheet.
> ------------------------------------------------------------
> when Kagara went into  a trading halt this morning i was assuming a large
> ...



I hoping so also.

I thought they were going to sell an asset (Admiral Bay)

 Any lowering of debt for this cash flow posistive company can only be good news.


----------



## CarbonSteel (3 February 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*


As I write, they are trading at $0.39. Who do I call to thank for diluting and devaluing our shares, not to mention the offer of the privilege to buy more at a premium (as opposed to discount!) of 2.5%!


----------



## jet328 (3 February 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



CarbonSteel said:


> As I write, they are trading at $0.39. Who do I call to thank for diluting and devaluing our shares




Are you serious? I'm amazed that they raised $10m at such a small discount, most capital raisings have been absolutely brutal for smaller companies, look at much larger IPL & Transfield

The problem is they really need the cash. Hopefully both loans can be rolled over later in the year


----------



## CarbonSteel (3 February 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



jet328 said:


> Are you serious? I'm amazed that they raised $10m at such a small discount




Yes, I am serious. 
The trading halt was implemented when the SP was $0.42.
The sale of 25M shares to Transamine diluted the value to approx. $0.376 immediately. (216M x $0.42 / 241M = $0.376).
Then, as a SH, I am graciously offered shares at $0.40 and I'm supposed to feel happy about it?  Should not the SH's have an advantage over non-SH's? To add insult to injury, the price fell to $0.38, leaving SH's to pay a premium of 5% c/f the companys' offer! It was obvious to me watching trading, that SH's caused a bottleneck as they ran for the door.


----------



## oldblue (4 February 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

It's a sad fact of life that companies need to offer a sweetener to the instos if they need to raise a big chunk of new capital, especially in today's conditions and particularly if they are second tier miners.
There's plenty of companies around at present that will have difficulty raising the necessary, at any price!


----------



## CarbonSteel (4 February 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Maybe times are difficult for 2nd tier miners, but that did not stop Panaust from having a very successful (oversubscribed in 2 days) SPP. Was it possible that Kagara could have presented their placement in similar (and way smarter) fashion? Anyhow, now we lucky SH's are looking at a 17.6% premium if we buy from the company instead of the market. Anyone sent their cheque off yet?


----------



## CarbonSteel (10 February 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



oldblue said:


> It's a sad fact of life that companies need to offer a sweetener to the instos if they need to raise a big chunk of new capital, especially in today's conditions and particularly if they are second tier miners.
> There's plenty of companies around at present that will have difficulty raising the necessary, at any price!




Market commentators over the last 2 - 3 days..." retail shareholders are not being treated fairly. They (the long term loyal company supporters) get nothing but diluted while the ""instos"" get the good deal".

If you set yourself up to get a reaction from an angry investor, don't act surprised when it happens.


----------



## UMike (10 February 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



CarbonSteel said:


> Market commentators over the last 2 - 3 days..." retail shareholders are not being treated fairly. They (the long term loyal company supporters) get nothing but diluted while the ""instos"" get the good deal".
> 
> If you set yourself up to get a reaction from an angry investor, don't act surprised when it happens.



While I agree that us small time investors are getting the raw end of the stick for those of us that missed out on getting more at below the 40c mark may well be participating in the Share purchase Application after all.


----------



## CarbonSteel (12 February 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



UMike said:


> While I agree that us small time investors are getting the raw end of the stick for those of us that missed out on getting more at below the 40c mark may well be participating in the Share purchase Application after all.




Lets explore an example. Lets imagine that SP is $0.50. OK, so we have 241M @ $0.50 = $120.5M. Now lets say that they issue an extra 30% capital (as they correctly point out - they are allowed to). Now there are 321M shares. So the dilution to share value is thus...$120.5M/321M = $0.375. So, I guess my question is this. Would you rather buy shares from the company at $0.40 or possibly on market (after the placement is completed) at $0.375?

*The above is an example only*. It is *not* an attempt to ascertain a target price. *Do your own research*. Reach your own conclusions. *No responsibilty* taken for anyone acting on the above figures.


----------



## Aargh! (12 February 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I have obtained the following from Newjo's posting on HC....


Huntley's Recommendation: Kagara Ltd

Recommendation: Reduce

The Mt Garnet plant in Qld sources ore from a number of small, high grade deposits to produce zinc, copper, lead, silver and gold. Thalanga’s late 2006 start-up makes copper the dominant metal. The Mungana base metals mill at Chillagoe, similar to Mt Garnet, was postponed in 2008. It was to start April 2009. Red Dome and Mungana may support a combined low grade gold/copper development. KZL’s Lounge Lizard is a promising exploration project adjoining Western Areas’ (WSA) Flying Fox nickel mine in WA. Admiral Bay is a large but low grade and deep zinc, lead, silver deposit with significant option value. Speculative and only for those seeking upside from exploration and development with a tolerance for mining and commodity price risk. KZL has no moat with cash costs near the industry average for zinc but in the highest quartile for copper.

Event
06-Feb-2009

Much has changed in the past five months. When we reported on the FY08 result in August copper was US$3.44/lb and zinc US$0.81/lb. KZL’s margins were healthy. Copper is now US$1.45/lb and zinc US$0.49/lb. The balance sheet has weakened substantially. Spending was relatively heavy in 2008 with capital directed to the mothballed Mungana Basemetals plant and exploration – both now pared back to a minimum. As at June 30, 2008, cash was $15.8m and debt $100.0m – receivables and payables broadly balanced. Cash at end December 2008 was $31.7m but debt was approaching $200m. Payables have blown out to exceed receivables by more than $70m. Provisional pricing payments of $34.5m received from smelters in 1Q09 are to be repaid in 3Q09 due to the steep fall in the copper price.

Business Impact: We have slashed our valuation to $0.54 a share in response to the worsening financial position, dilution from the placement and severely reduced near term earnings. We cut $150m from Admiral Bay, Lounge Lizard and the Mungana/Red Dome gold copper – all projects now valued at zero given the weak balance sheet and considerable development hurdles. The valuation assumes survival and no further discounted equity raisings. That’s appears a best case scenario now. Our forecast FY09 loss of $9.8m assumes $34.5m of provisional pricing losses, US$1.97/lb copper, US$0.59/lb zinc and an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.70. Our modest $7.7m FY10 forecast assumes US$1.58/lb copper, US$0.55/lb zinc and an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.64.

Forecast Impact: --
Recommendation Impact: With combined net debt and negative working capital of $250m, leverage in the face of weak operating cashflow is uncomfortably high. The company needs asset sales or improved commodity prices and survival is not necessarily assured. Despite trading at a discount to our valuation, risk dictates a downgrade in recommendation to Reduce.

Event Analysis
Much has changed in the past five months. When we reported on the FY08 result in August copper was US$3.44/lb and zinc US$0.81/lb. KZL’s margins were healthy. Copper is now US$1.45/lb and zinc US$0.49/lb. The fall in the copper price is the most worrying for KZL. Our forecast revenue over the next decade – based on Mt Garnet, Thalanga and Mungana Basemetals is split approximately 51% copper and 37% zinc with lead, silver and gold all minor contributors. Gold could represent a larger slice if a dedicated gold plant is built to service the Mungana deposit and Red Dome but would require additional capital. The zinc business has some competitive advantage. Cash costs of US$0.53/lb in calendar 2008 place KZL in the middle of the industry cost curve. At current prices, margins are slim but the business by itself would likely survive. By contrast, there is no real competitive advantage in copper. Cash costs of US$1.34/lb in calendar 2008 are deep inside the highest cost quartile. Copper investment was good as capital costs were low and quickly repaid. These mines will lose money sometimes though. Margins aren’t defencible and a debt laden balance sheet can be deadly. The balance sheet has weakened substantially. Spending was relatively heavy in 2008 with capital directed to the mothballed Mungana Basemetals plant and exploration – both now pared back to a minimum. As at June 30, 2008, cash was $15.8m and debt $100.0m – receivables and payables broadly balanced. Cash at end December 2008 was $31.7m but debt was approaching $200m. Payables have blown out to exceed receivables by more than $70m. Provisional pricing payments of $34.5m received from smelters in 1Q09 are to be repaid in 3Q09 due to the steep fall in the copper price. By end December 2008, the company had fully drawn down its $100m corporate facility with NAB as well as a $50m facility with Westpac established in the 2Q08.A further $22m of $25m is drawn under a guarantee facility and $20m of $40m under a leasing facility. The Westpac facility matures March 2009 – it was just short term to cover stocks built in advance of the wet season. The copper hedge book was closed out in January 2009. It was $25m out of the money at the end of December. To shore up its balance sheet, KZL raised $10m through the placement of 25m new 40c shares. Shareholders as at February 2 will be able to participate in a share purchase plan to buy either $2,000 or $5,000 of new 40c shares. The offer closes February 18 with a maximum of 64.9m shares to be issued for $26m. We’re not convinced the $10m placement will be sufficient capital to ease balance sheet pressures. Asset sales may be needed with Lounge Lizard and Admiral Bay the obvious options. KZL says it is progressing early stage expressions of interest in Admiral Bay but just what price these assets can fetch in this market is uncertain. We have had to slash our valuation to $0.54 a share in response to the worsening financial position, dilution from the placement and severely reduced near term earnings. We cut $150m from Admiral Bay, Lounge Lizard and the Mungana/Red Dome gold copper – all projects now valued at zero given the weak balance sheet position and considerable hurdles to development. Our forecast FY09 loss of $9.8m assumes $34.5m of provisional pricing losses, US$1.97/lb copper, US$0.59/lb zinc and an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.70. Our modest $7.7m FY10 forecast assumes US$1.58/lb copper, US$0.55/lb zinc and an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.64. With combined net debt and negative working capital of $250m, leverage in the face of weak operating cashflow is uncomfortably high. The company needs asset sales or improved commodity prices and survival is not necessarily assured. Despite trading at a discount to our valuation, risk dictates a downgrade in recommendation to Reduce.

NJ


----------



## J.B.Nimble (5 April 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Just reading the Huntley's recommendation again and wonder if it might now be unduly pessimistic. A few days after that posting this opinion was expressed in the Australian

Feb 19
"Kagara Zinc (KZL) 39.5c 

IN the grand mining tradition of hiving off fashionable commodity plays to unsuspecting investors, the copper and zinc miner hopes to parcel up its Queensland gold tenements and float them off as Mungana Goldmines. 

Fair enough, too. There is zero interest in base metals but gold is attracting tentative interest given the record Australian dollar gold price. 

According to Kagara, Mungana will consist of the Red Dome and Mungana porphyry deposits, containing an inferred resource of 1.6million ounces (plus copper and silver). Red Dome was mined profitably by Nuigini Mining between 1985 and 1996. Kagara argues that if Nuigini could turn a quid at the then going rate of $500 an ounce, the project should be a nice earner at the current $1500 an ounce. 

We will see. In the meantime, Kagara's zinc and copper plants at Thalanga and Mt Garnet have been hit by flooding, but deliveries have not been "materially affected". 

Kagara posted record December-quarter copper output at a margin of US68c a pound over cash costs, but zinc was extracted at a skinny buffer of US15c/lb. 

While the operations are cashflow positive, provisional pricing adjustments plunged Kagara into the red. "No base metal miner in Australia is profitable at present and Kagara is no exception," it said. 

Kagara is a hold. The company stands to unlock value from its gold assets but it really needs a sustained base metals recovery. "




I tend to agree. With out doubt it has been a difficult time for them and Q1 2009 may yet turn out to be the ugliest quarter, but with rising metals prices and Mungana Gold being prepped for sale the outlook is somewhat better.

Base metals prices are a clear enough story. December quarter was cash flow positive from operations with cash costs of 1.20 for copper and 0.41 for zinc. They should have moved a little lower as they have seen a full quarter with low exchange rate and low fuel costs. Meanwhile we have seen copper and zinc move above the December quarter average prices. 

it will be interesting to see the progress on the costs as output increases. Copper is expected to increase from 26,000T to 35 to 40,000 T this year and zinc is due to increase from 40,000T to more than 100,000T by 2011. 

The big hit they took in Q4 08 from provisional pricing adjustments should not be repeated - a much smaller impact if any in Q1 and may turn positive in Q2 if metals prices hold.

Debt is a problem that should be brought back in to line by a successful float of Mungana Gold. The sale is scheduled for June. They have announced resource upgrades and scoping study results in support of the sale. The scoping study numbers were a bit ambitious in terms of metals price assumptions but estimated production costs of A$300/oz should generate some decent interest.

KZL looks like it was being priced for failure but the corner may have been turned and if a survivor then there could some decent upside here.


----------



## Aargh! (6 April 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



J.B.Nimble said:


> Just reading the Huntley's recommendation again and wonder if it might now be unduly pessimistic. A few days after that posting this opinion was expressed in the Australian
> 
> Feb 19
> "Kagara Zinc (KZL) 39.5c
> ...




Nice post JBNimble. Something stirred today, up 30%. Wonder if anything has leaked....? 100 characteeeeers.....


----------



## J.B.Nimble (6 April 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



Aargh! said:


> Nice post JBNimble. Something stirred today, up 30%. Wonder if anything has leaked....? 100 characteeeeers.....





Crikey - 30% up. Was it something I said? LOL. Glad I moved on this hunch last week. 

On the lookout for more Lazarus stocks...


----------



## michael_selway (6 April 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



J.B.Nimble said:


> Crikey - 30% up. Was it something I said? LOL. Glad I moved on this hunch last week.
> 
> On the lookout for more Lazarus stocks...




Wow thats amazing today



> 0854 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS downgrades Kagara Zinc (KZL.AU) to sell from neutral on risks associated with miner's debts. KZL needs to refinance two debt facilities totaling A$150m by end of October and UBS says it believes the miner has insufficient cash to repay either of the facilities. "Without certainty on the method of readjusting the balance sheet, we believe an investment in KZL is risky," UBS says. Target price cut to 30 cents from 43 cents; KZL last traded at 49.5 cents. (APW)




*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 30.1 -17.5 -6.5 8.8 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *







thx

MS


----------



## J.B.Nimble (6 April 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Well UBS sure can pick them... 

KZL went on a nice little run from mid 30s to almost 80 in the Xmas/New Year rally on much weaker news. I'm hoping for similar mileage on this run.


----------



## Kryzz (16 April 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

KZL might be ready to pop, volume is picking up in this current basing pattern, nearing resistance at .80 c...


----------



## John4788 (16 April 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Looking real nice . . . . lots of upside to come IMHO. I hope that there won't be another "please explain" from the ASX ?

John
Melbourne


----------



## YELNATS (16 April 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



J.B.Nimble said:


> Well UBS sure can pick them...
> 
> KZL went on a nice little run from mid 30s to almost 80 in the Xmas/New Year rally on much weaker news. I'm hoping for similar mileage on this run.




Yeah, and what does UBS stand for? Uninformed B*ll Sh*t? What would a Swiss bank know about Aussie mining?

PS I hold and hope.


----------



## J.B.Nimble (16 April 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

KZL was bit of a laggard when the resurgence in copper stocks started. With a slightly highish cost of production they are more leveraged to the copper (and zinc) price than some of the other stars out there at the moment. Fear factor has kept them down for longer than they deserved but base metal prices and copper in particular have lifted enough to shake off the fear. Now they have some catching up to do and I expect this run up could continue for a while - in no hurry to take profits on this...


----------



## J.B.Nimble (19 April 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Interesting developments that may shed additional light on the spectacular gains in the latter part of last week - from an open of 0.60 on Wednesday to as high as 1.24 on Friday morning. Reports coming through of approaches for Mungana ahead of the IPO. A succesful sale would clear debt and not hurt sentiment at all - next few weeks should be interesting.

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Kagara Ltd., an Australian zinc and copper producer, has received approaches for its gold assets that are being readied for a A$150 million ($108 million) initial share sale in July to help reduce debt. 

“We are not just confining ourselves to the IPO route,” Joe Treacy, a director with Perth-based Kagara, said today in an interview. “We’ve also had quite a lot of expressions of interests from other companies who are in the gold space looking for gold assets.” 

Kagara is divesting the gold assets to help repay A$150 million of debt and is in refinancing talks with lenders, Treacy said. Rio Tinto Group and Alcoa Inc. are among global mining companies selling shares, bonds or assets to trim debt and boost cash as the global recession crimps demand, cuts metals prices and slashes earnings. 

“We will be guided at the end of the day by what the market can bear,” Treacy said. “At the end of the day, we will weigh up all those options.” 

Kagara jumped to a six-month high in Sydney trading, gaining 16 percent to A$1 at the 4:10 p.m. Sydney time close on the Australian stock exchange. The stock has more than doubled this month and has a market value of A$250 million. 

“We are not seeing anything unusual” on the share register, Treacy said. This month’s rebound in copper and zinc prices has also boosted the stock, he said. 

Existing Plant 

The new company, Mungana Goldmines Ltd., would have the rights to all the gold production from Kagara’s projects in north Queensland state. Mungana could produce as much as 80,000 ounces a year initially before increasing output to 100,000 ounces, he said. First production could start within six months at a cost of A$20 million to modify the existing plant, he added. 

Kagara is due to repay a A$50 million loan from Westpac Banking Corp. by June 30 and a A$100 million loan from National Australia Bank Ltd. by October 31, he said. 

“We’ve got to talk to the banks about what is an acceptable level of debt,” Treacy said. “We will reduce the debt to the level that the banks and ourselves are comfortable with and that number really hasn’t been agreed.” 

Kagara may receive between A$25 million and A$50 million from the initial share sale, he said. UBS AG analyst Jo Battershill cut his rating on the stock to “sell” from “neutral” on April 3 due to uncertainty over refinancing options. 

The company is unlikely to post a profit this half amid a slump in zinc and copper prices earlier this year, Treacy said. Kagara posted a net loss of A$34 million in the six months ended Dec. 31. 

“With operating cashflow insufficient to meet principal debt repayments, refinancing could potentially become a stumbling block” UBS’s Battershill said in an April 3 report.


----------



## legs (9 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

So whats happening here?

Share purchase plan in place soon,

Suspended only because of this but was supposed to be up today... why isnt it??

Anyone any ideas?

Might be bad news that removed for ASX200, some fund managers will dump it due to contravening their fund rules??


----------



## UMike (9 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



legs said:


> So whats happening here?
> 
> Share purchase plan in place soon,
> 
> ...



Dunno what the exact nature of what is going on, but this is C&Ped from their Ann 5/6/09


> *REQUEST FOR EXTENSION OF VOLUNTARY SUSPENSION*
> Further to our request of 2 June 2009, Kagara Ltd advises that it now anticipates being in a position
> to make an announcement to the market with respect to its proposed significant capital raising on
> Tuesday, 9 June 2009. However, to enable the book build which forms part of the institutional
> ...




I'd have thought they'd done this "book build" at the last Capital rasing done not that long ago (4mths ago?)


----------



## Ferret (11 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

A 1 for 1 rights issue at 60c - nearly half the last traded price.  

The rights aren't tradable and it is ex the rights entitlement when it recommences trade on Thursday.  So no chance to sell out before the price drop if you didn't want to take them up.  

I don't think thats looking after your shareholders.  If you're not an Aus or NZ resident you might not even be legally allowed to take up the rights - thats if they even send you the personalised application forms.  Not happy.


----------



## Aargh! (11 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



Ferret said:


> A 1 for 1 rights issue at 60c - nearly half the last traded price.
> 
> The rights aren't tradable and it is ex the rights entitlement when it recommences trade on Thursday.  So no chance to sell out before the price drop if you didn't want to take them up.
> 
> I don't think thats looking after your shareholders.  If you're not an Aus or NZ resident you might not even be legally allowed to take up the rights - thats if they even send you the personalised application forms.  Not happy.




There's some information at the end of the presentation regarding specific countries and relevant restrictions.

The Chinese again swoop down on another mining company. 

KZL will reduce gearing from 39% to 5% and have a short term cash facility of $10m to cover operating costs. I didn't realise the were in such bad shape.


----------



## UMike (11 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



Ferret said:


> A 1 for 1 rights issue at 60c - nearly half the last traded price.
> 
> The rights aren't tradable and it is ex the rights entitlement when it recommences trade on Thursday.  So no chance to sell out before the price drop if you didn't want to take them up.
> 
> I don't think thats looking after your shareholders.  If you're not an Aus or NZ resident you might not even be legally allowed to take up the rights - thats if they even send you the personalised application forms.  Not happy.



Also how and why did they come up with that figure of 60c. Seems way too chep considering the potential that the company has as indicated by the recent SP rise.

An uneducated 80c to $1 would of been more appropriate. 

Lucky I got back in a week ago.


----------



## Evo (11 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

60c is a good price considering it was below that for most of the last year. Not too many institutions would want to take part if the price was too high. Brilliant outcome IMO and this will be trading well over $1 in the coming weeks/months now that the debt problems are all sorted. Lovely company to holw onto this one!


----------



## doogie_goes_off (11 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Not the only company to sell up too cheap at the moment - everyone's queuing up to raise money to stabilise their balance sheet.


----------



## pheadlam19 (15 June 2009)

*Kagara*

Kagara is about to have a share purchase plan. Would that be good money after bad ?:   It closed at $0.90 on Friday and the offer price will be at $0.60. What do you think ?


----------



## Ferret (15 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

The 90c price is ex the rights entitlement.  So at the moment thats what the market thinks the diluted shares are worth and taking up the rights would give you a quick 30c per share profit.  Mind you, you lost about 30c a share the day it went ex rights, so taking up the rights is really only getting your own money back.


----------



## Boggo (26 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Seems to be making a recovery over the last few days, especially today.

What are the latest views or opinions.

(click to enlarge)


----------



## J.B.Nimble (27 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



Boggo said:


> Seems to be making a recovery over the last few days, especially today.
> 
> What are the latest views or opinions.
> 
> (click to enlarge)





Forget the chart for the moment... 

Shares on issue before cap raise =256mill
Average sp over preceding couple of weeks ~ 1.18
MC over that period ~302 mill
Debt = 136 mill (at least, this is what they declare as their intention to be paid down)
Therefore EV = 438mill
Mining sector has had approximately 10% pull back since cap raise announced  so adjust this EV back to 400 mill
Cash post cap raise is expected to be 83mill (working cap and funds for lounge lizard)
Suggests possible new MC around old EV + cash = 483 mill
Funds being raised = up to 262mill @ 0.6, so up to 437 mill new shares
Total shares post cap raise = (up to) 693 mill
Possible sp = 483/693 = 0.69

And what did we close at?  0.745 
That feels reasonable based on straight maths. But what about sentiment? 

KZL carried a discount due to the debt risks. That discount should disappear.

They now have the cash to turn on a cash flow from Lounge Lizard.

And in the wings we still have the Mungana IPO - will it still go ahead or will they choose to hold the asset? This is one of the interesting questions for KZL. I suspect it depends on whether the sp shows some acknowledgement of the value of Mungana. If not I guess they will continue and flick it out. Impact on sp if they do? Dunno - the market appears to have only a marginally better understanding of the value of cash. 

Post cap raise this is a very different looking company - the risks and the desperation are largely gone. We should see a lot less volatility related to their balance sheet and a closer relationship to the state of the underlying metals markets. Personally, I like them at this price and I'm taking up the offer.


----------



## nlatter (27 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc capital raising*

Hi guys,

Im not terribly savvy in this issue but maybe someone can help me out.

As the previous post says the average price in the last week or two was like 1.14 or something like that and is now .75 at weeks end.

Am I looking at this the right way? Say I were take up the offer by friday and then in the next day of trading they were say 0.90c you would almost instantly make a 50% gain from buying them @ .60c .

Again am I looking at this correct?

Cheers


----------



## Boggo (27 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Thank you J B Nimble.

Well done. Next few days/weeks should be a confirmation either way then.

Cheers.


----------



## J.B.Nimble (28 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc capital raising*



nlatter said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> Im not terribly savvy in this issue but maybe someone can help me out.
> 
> ...




You are correct. The discount is the incentive to entice investors to stump up the much needed funding. This has some fairly predictable outcomes if you take a moment to study the chart over the last couple of weeks.

Following the trading halt and announcement, the sp was immediately sold down to 0.90 on huge volume. Everyone has their reasons but, for some it would have been a mixture of reaction to the depth of discount and the volume of funds sought and hence the amount to be stumped up to take advantage of it. For others it may have looked like an opportunity to trade out and buy back lower before record date. Whatever the case there were plenty of others willing to buy in before the offer went ex. 

Following the record date, the next phase sets in as (a) some players take their profit knowing that they are buying replacement shares at 0.60 (and in some cases need to free up the funds to participate), and (b) others being aware of this sell pressure anticipate the drop and trade the trend. We also had a bit of general down-draft in the market. End result is that following the ex-date we open at 0.84, slide down to 0.65'ish and then start to recover to our last close at 0.745. Maybe this continues to trend up, or maybe we experience another wave of sell pressure when the issue comes through.

Now none of this tells you what a KZL share is really worth. It is only giving you an understanding of how the market reacted to the share offer. For an understanding of the value of a KZL share you would have to look at all the fundamentals - quantity and grade of reserves, cost of production, outlook for their commodities, balance sheet strength, quality of management, offtake arrangements, growth opportunities, etc, etc, etc. Only then can you make an assessment of value and where you think this might go in these still fairly uncertain times.

In the extreme uncertainty of late last year they looked like roadkill and had a sp to match this outlook. This discount started to ease as the survival prospects became more encouraging (metals price increases, equity injections from substantial shareholders, Mungana IPO plans, general market rally, Lounge lizard agreement with WSA). When this cap raise is done they will have balance sheet strength and some good development prospects. Where the underlying value goes from here largely depends on sustainability of metals prices. Where the sp goes from week to week is probably another matter altogether. 

For the record, I am a born and bred, unrelenting, and unapologetic optimist so you should discount my views accordingly...


----------



## nlatter (28 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Thanks J.B

Well I was thinking, based on what happens with the price in the next few days. If you were to set a stop above .60 then you cant loose, well your risk is significantly lower. Which I guess is the idea. If you were logical about it why wouldn't you do it?

Am I thinking straight or is it naive.

Cheers


----------



## J.B.Nimble (28 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



nlatter said:


> Thanks J.B
> 
> Well I was thinking, based on what happens with the price in the next few days. If you were to set a stop above .60 then you cant loose, well your risk is significantly lower. Which I guess is the idea. If you were logical about it why wouldn't you do it?
> 
> ...





A couple of things here... 

Firstly, your entitlement to buy is dependent only on having been a holder on the record date (June 15) There is nothing to stop you from selling your existing holding now and replacing it by buying your entitlement at 0.60.  

And yes there is a possible loss scenario in here. The close date for the offer is Friday July 3. The allotment date is July 10. If the sp dips below 0.6 between the time of sending off your money and being issued the shares then you will be looking at a paper loss before you have a chance to get out. A stop cannot help you until you have the shares available to sell.


----------



## nlatter (29 June 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Ahh that was another thing I wanted to know... The allotment date.

Thanks, please update anything that comes up.




J.B.Nimble said:


> A couple of things here...
> 
> Firstly, your entitlement to buy is dependent only on having been a holder on the record date (June 15) There is nothing to stop you from selling your existing holding now and replacing it by buying your entitlement at 0.60.
> 
> And yes there is a possible loss scenario in here. The close date for the offer is Friday July 3. The allotment date is July 10. If the sp dips below 0.6 between the time of sending off your money and being issued the shares then you will be looking at a paper loss before you have a chance to get out. A stop cannot help you until you have the shares available to sell.


----------



## legs (23 July 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Anyone who got the allotment @ 60 cents would be laughing now no?

Over 50% at this stage. I got my bit and now comes the tough decision about what to do with them. Hold or sell?

Ideas?

They are in my balanced Super Portfolio.


----------



## UMike (23 July 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

having sold most of my holdings on the way up I only had the opportunity to buy 3000 in my allotment. However i bought consistantly on the way down.

With the pre diluted stock reaching about $1.50 and with Lead, Zinc and Nickle among others at lower prices than today I don't expect to sell my first lot before $1.20 is reached. When that'll be is anyones guess.

Good luck to all and stay true to your own trading plans.


----------



## legs (23 July 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I would have thought next target is $1.25??? It has gone fast the last few days, thereofre it may take a breather but I wouldn't think it would drop much before 1.25


----------



## legs (31 July 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Took another giant step towards 1.25 today after an outstanding quarterly report suggesting nearly Net Zero debt and production ramping up. Some good resource finds too.


----------



## UMike (31 July 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Nothing short of stunning imo.

How it dropped to around 62c after the SPP is beyond me.

Pity I was to nervous to buy more. 
Will ride this longer than I thought I would.


----------



## legs (3 August 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



UMike said:


> Nothing short of stunning imo.
> 
> How it dropped to around 62c after the SPP is beyond me.
> 
> ...






UMike said:


> having sold most of my holdings on the way up I only had the opportunity to buy 3000 in my allotment. However i bought consistantly on the way down.
> 
> With the pre diluted stock reaching about $1.50 and with Lead, Zinc and Nickle among others at lower prices than today I don't expect to sell my first lot before $1.20 is reached. When that'll be is anyones guess.
> 
> Good luck to all and stay true to your own trading plans.





So its 1.20..you getting nervous Mike??

I am up 99%  now but I will be using tight stops i think. i WORKED TOO HARD TO GET WHERE IT IS...ACTUALLY WAS VERY SIMPLE.


----------



## UMike (3 August 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



legs said:


> So its 1.20..you getting nervous Mike??
> 
> I am up 99%  now but I will be using tight stops i think. i WORKED TOO HARD TO GET WHERE IT IS...ACTUALLY WAS VERY SIMPLE.



Absolututely. 

I never thought it'd break $1.20 so quick with potentially a lot of investors happy to make exactly double their SPP.

Prior to 12:00 I was thinking of getting rid of half for $1.175.  Lucky I didn't. 
Kitco has all rellevent metals up atm so here is hoping fo a great day tomorrow.

I am not about to spec on where KZL will go however I just parted with $15,000 in a CBH SPP with the knowledge that I would of been better spent on KZL :lol:

Good luck too all holders.


----------



## legs (3 August 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Metals, Oil, Stocks Advance as Chinese Manufacturing Expands 

By Stuart Wallace

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Metals and oil rose, while commodity stocks led the MSCI World Index up for a third day after Chinese manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in a year. 

Copper reached its highest price since October, with nickel and zinc at their strongest levels since September. Crude traded above $70 a barrel for the first time in a month. The MSCI World Index, a gauge of 23 developed markets, added 1 percent at 11:09 a.m. in London, as HSBC Holdings Plc’s first-half profit beat analysts’ estimates. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.1 percent. The yen fell against all 16 most-traded currencies. 

The CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index in China, the world’s biggest consumer of copper and aluminum, rose to a seasonally adjusted 52.8, from 51.8 in June. Commodity prices may extend their rally in 2010 as the global slump abates, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis. Economists predict U.S. manufacturing probably contracted at the slowest pace in 11 months in July. 

“Asia will come out of the recession sooner and help the rest of the world,” said Sintje Diek, an analyst with HSH Nordbank in Hamburg. “We have had economic indicators that were better than expected, the overall data is pointing to better developments in the coming weeks and months.” 

Shares of basic-resource companies and banks led the 1.7 percent rally in Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, gained 2.8 percent in London, while Rio Tinto Group, the third-largest, added 4.8 percent.


----------



## legs (17 September 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Can it reach 1.20 again? 

Up nicely today 6%.. has been a bit dissapointing of late. Maybe the 1.20 is a resistance level.


----------



## lioness (3 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

This is breakout is it not??

Funny how no-one here is interested anymore, we should see continued strength from here. Looks like 1.60 target.


----------



## UMike (3 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



lioness said:


> This is breakout is it not??
> 
> Funny how no-one here is interested anymore, we should see continued strength from here. Looks like 1.60 target.



 I wish!

I have no idea how you can come to such a target but I have so many I'd be wrapped to see it get there. Still seems like more sellers than buyers. 

Used to like it for it's volitility but it has been so steady that it is scaring me.

I've got an order to sell 1/3 at $1.145 (previously wanted a $1.25 for it)..... We'll see how it goes.


----------



## lioness (3 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



UMike said:


> I wish!
> 
> I have no idea how you can come to such a target but I have so many I'd be wrapped to see it get there. Still seems like more sellers than buyers.
> 
> ...




An order to sell, you must have rocks in your head giving away easy profit. Good luck, hope you won't regret it. I will check back in here in a few days to see how you went.


----------



## UMike (4 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



lioness said:


> An order to sell, you must have rocks in your head giving away easy profit. Good luck, hope you won't regret it. I will check back in here in a few days to see how you went.



I still don't know what you base this on.

On the 20/10/2009 I sold a lot for $1.125 and bought 'em back at $1.05 a few days later

Don't see any reason for a breakout or why I can't continue this ~10% buy / sell strategy.

C ya in a few days


----------



## legs (4 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



UMike said:


> I still don't know what you base this on.
> 
> On the 20/10/2009 I sold a lot for $1.125 and bought 'em back at $1.05 a few days later
> 
> ...




If it works stick to it, however after CGT i'd prefer to hang untilthey make more than 10%, but then again it depends on your holding doesn't it. Horses for courses I say.


----------



## lioness (6 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



UMike said:


> I still don't know what you base this on.
> 
> On the 20/10/2009 I sold a lot for $1.125 and bought 'em back at $1.05 a few days later
> 
> ...




If that's the case Mike, you should be selling again now at 1.12 if you are true to your word and strategy.

After paying CGT, you might make enough for some cascade lights but I am banking on much bigger profits. I will come back to you when it hits 1.50 plus and remind you.


----------



## lioness (12 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Umike,

Looks like you were right as KZL has slumped badly. Is it just me or is someone aggressively selling this down at all costs for the last week?

Something is up with this one and I reckon it will break up or down within the next week. Bots are on overdrive and 2 brokers (JB Were and Wilsons) have raised their targets to $1.50 as on KZL website.

This has been trading sideways for 6 months on the chart and gone nowhere.

If it can break up with some type of good news(maybe Admiral bay), reckon this will fly pretty rapidly.


----------



## UMike (14 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Ahhh well.

If they got to $1.145 I'd be bragging right now.

Nice to hear JB Were and Wilsons have an upgraded target.... Hope they are right.


----------



## lioness (19 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Someone dumped 11 million shares on the close on Friday.

Hmmmmm, something big is up here. Largest volume in 6 months. Lots of crossed trades also.

Maybe bad news coming?? Don't think so as all their project are going really well with the gold IPO due in 1Q 2010.

Also their Admiral Bay study is due now.

IFL just bought in substantial shareholder also, so not sure who is dumping now, must know something I don't?


----------



## satanoperca (19 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Was an exciting day yesterday for KZL, topped up some more at 1.02 and then rise back to 1.035 and then finish at 1.00 due to the huge dumping of shares at close.

Ironically another position CDU did exactly the opposite with a huge buy order being filled during close.

Volumes on XAO & XJO jumped in the last two days.

Hard to read anything into as volumes have been declining over the last few months.

Monday will certainly be interesting for KZL with some more weakness due to the sell off on Friday expected.


----------



## nomore4s (19 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



satanoperca said:


> Volumes on XAO & XJO jumped in the last two days.




Volumes are up for the last 2 days due to options expiry etc etc so I wouldn't read anything into it at all


----------



## lioness (19 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



nomore4s said:


> Volumes are up for the last 2 days due to options expiry etc etc so I wouldn't read anything into it at all




Nomore, what has options expiry got to do with someone dumping 11 million shares in KZL??????

That's no correlation to KZL??


----------



## nomore4s (19 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



lioness said:


> Nomore, what has options expiry got to do with someone dumping 11 million shares in KZL??????
> 
> That's no correlation to KZL??




lioness how about you read the quoted text in my post, I was replying to satanoperca saying volumes on the XAO/XJO had jumped in the last 2 days.

And also while not 100% sure because I don't have access to the data, for someone to be "dumping" 11 million shares on the close someone has to be buying them and there is no way there would normally be that much depth in the queue on close for KZL, so it has to be some sort of prearranged trade.
Considering that 15.84million shares were traded for the day and 11mill came at the close I would hazard a guess that only 5-6million of that was true volume - the other 10mill were some sort of cross trade or something.


----------



## lioness (19 December 2009)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



nomore4s said:


> lioness how about you read the quoted text in my post, I was replying to satanoperca saying volumes on the XAO/XJO had jumped in the last 2 days.
> 
> And also while not 100% sure because I don't have access to the data, for someone to be "dumping" 11 million shares on the close someone has to be buying them and there is no way there would normally be that much depth in the queue on close for KZL, so it has to be some sort of prearranged trade.
> Considering that 15.84million shares were traded for the day and 11mill came at the close I would hazard a guess that only 5-6million of that was true volume - the other 10mill were some sort of cross trade or something.




Yes, apologies nomore. You are right, it was a cross trade but I suspect more weakness coming as the depth still has many sellers in the millions waiting to exit. Monday will point to a true picture.


----------



## ectoplasm (4 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Hi lioness,

Not much chatter on the KZL thread over new year. I think that high volume day (on the 18/12) was a key reversal day, and if Ni bounces off the support then KZL is in the early stage of breaking out (yes bit to early to call but that is life). Some fundamental news would assist the breakout

Two charts below:
1. Daily KZL - showing resistance @ $1.15. 

2. KITCO's Spot Ni price


----------



## lioness (4 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



ectoplasm said:


> Hi lioness,
> 
> Not much chatter on the KZL thread over new year. I think that high volume day (on the 18/12) was a key reversal day, and if Ni bounces off the support then KZL is in the early stage of breaking out (yes bit to early to call but that is life). Some fundamental news would assist the breakout
> 
> ...




Hi Ecto,

I have been watching this closely for the last 3 weeks and someone is definitely in there absorbing and manipulating. Reckon it is someone big as they throw around large shares, they must be waiting for the Mungana IPO which must be close now. January is strong for stocks and with Zinc and NI starting to surge, we should see 1.15 broken with 1.60 the target. I am waiting for the $2 target before thinking about selling. With China surging, KZL should be worth much more by end of 2010. I am amazed it is so cheap still.

By the way Ecto, you state NI will help it, but it is a really copper and Zinc which may up most of its revenue at the moment although lounge lizard may change that I suppose.


----------



## ectoplasm (4 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Hi lioness,

I figured everyone had been on holidays but could not wait for someone to post here...

UBS's last report (beginning of November) had KZL as a sell & I would'nt be surprised if they have been shaking the tree before their next report lists KZL as a buy. 

I was not going to bother but have the Copper and Zinc charts as well (posted below) I note even GFMS is still trending gently up as well.


----------



## UMike (5 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Hi Ecto and Hi lioness

KZL is definately due for a rise in value short term at least anyways. Been far over due.

Since most investors invest in the future of a Company, KZL must be considered a Ni play as well now.


----------



## noco (5 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



lioness said:


> Hi Ecto,
> 
> I have been watching this closely for the last 3 weeks and someone is definitely in there absorbing and manipulating. Reckon it is someone big as they throw around large shares, they must be waiting for the Mungana IPO which must be close now. January is strong for stocks and with Zinc and NI starting to surge, we should see 1.15 broken with 1.60 the target. I am waiting for the $2 target before thinking about selling. With China surging, KZL should be worth much more by end of 2010. I am amazed it is so cheap still.
> 
> By the way Ecto, you state NI will help it, but it is a really copper and Zinc which may up most of its revenue at the moment although lounge lizard may change that I suppose.




They are probably trading low atm since the dividends dried up a couple of years ago.

I traded in and out between $4-7 back before 2007. Once the dividends start to flow there should be some increase in the SP. Took advantage to top up when they hit a low of 34 cents. I'm in for the long haul.


----------



## noco (6 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Kagara announced today they have mined the first ore from it's Lounge Lizard high grade nickel sulphide deposit in West Australia.

Lets hope we see more movement in the SP.


----------



## lioness (6 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



noco said:


> Kagara announced today they have mined the first ore from it's Lounge Lizard high grade nickel sulphide deposit in West Australia.
> 
> Lets hope we see more movement in the SP.




Noco,

I know the market will ultimately value KZL, but what do you think they are worth potentially if base metals keep improving and with Admiral bay and Mungana IPO??


----------



## ectoplasm (6 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Hi lioness, (Hope you do not mind my attempting an answer rather than NOCO)

In UBS' last KZL report (issued early November) they recommended a sell (rerated from Neutral) ~ some salient points are below:

"Kagara Ltd, headquartered in Perth, Western Australia, is a base metals producer with a portfolio of assets in northern Queensland and Western Australia. *Production of zinc is expected to ~100ktpa by 2012 *and *copper production to ~35ktpa*; Kagara's first full quarter of production (Last quater) from the high grade Mungana mine with mined output of 77.8kt at 15.9% Zn.  First nickel production is expected from the Lounge Lizard project in WA by mid - 2010 (they announced today the first Ore Production From Lounge Lizard Nickel Project). The company has an active exploration portfolio, with encouraging prospects including the Red Dome, King Vol and Thalanga deposits around its Queensland tenements. Kagara is also looking to advance Admiral Bay Zn/Pb deposit in northern Western Australia, although a JV partner will be required.

*In UBS's view, the next catalyst for KZL is likely to be the results from the
Admiral Bay pre-feasibility. We still remain to be convinced about the project
due to its depth and grade. This is likely to be followed by the proposed
Mungana Goldmines IPO. We also remain unconvinced about the proposed codevelopment of the Mungana orebody. However, despite our uncertainties, we are attributing ~$100m to each of these two projects in our valuation*."

FWIW I think this estimate is ultra conservitive ~ reflecting the risk in these projects, however I expect UBS's assessment to favourably change in the next report (based on recent progress)

Daily chart: some consolidation could have been expected but price and volume are increasing... the above information suggests a long term hold IMO


----------



## noco (6 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



lioness said:


> Noco,
> 
> I know the market will ultimately value KZL, but what do you think they are worth potentially if base metals keep improving and with Admiral bay and Mungana IPO??




Lioness, firstly, I am not a financial adviser and it is only my opinion.

If you have access to Comsec, they display all the financials of KZL.

As at the end of June 2009, their assets totalled $132,998,000 and their Liabilities were $218,210,000. They also had a debt of $164,957,000.

Comsec show a book value of $0.74 per share.

Their last dividends were $010 per share 14/02/06 and $0.12 per share 08/10/07.

KZL have been through a pretty rough time with the GFC and the drop on commodity prices through 2008/9, however, if the price of zinc, copper, nickel and gold continue to increase, there is a pretty fair chance their finances will improve during 2010. Just when they start to show a dividend again, I could not say, but I do have confidence in KZL to work their way through.

Once again, this only my opinion, others may have a different view on KZL.

Good luck.


----------



## lioness (6 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Many thanks Ecto and Noco, good responses.

By the way, Nick Radge from the Chartist covered KZL tonight and he states if it can break 1.15 on large volume and close on its highs, then it is breakout to a potential target of $2.00


----------



## noco (6 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



lioness said:


> Many thanks Ecto and Noco, good responses.
> 
> By the way, Nick Radge from the Chartist covered KZL tonight and he states if it can break 1.15 on large volume and close on its highs, then it is breakout to a potential target of $2.00




Actually, I would not be surprised to see it go higher by 2011. As I said previously, it ranged between $4 and $7 prior to GFC. IMHO I doubt we will see those highs before 2012. A lot will depend on what happens with Global finances in 2011. We could have a double VV Goblaly  by april 2011 based on a financial report I read. Can't remeber where I read it unfortuneatly.


----------



## ectoplasm (7 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



lioness said:


> states if it (KZL) can break 1.15 on large volume and close on its highs, then it is breakout to a potential target of $2.00




Yes, long term I agree with Nick, but I see many tradable levels on the journey: initial resistance at @ ~$1.30, and some gaps fills on the way higher.

BTW the US stockmarket seems to be following Zmbabwe's lead when the printing presses are used (i.e. it is on the golden stairway higher). Most seem to think 10% gains in our market this year, but could surprise to the upside IMO (with usual consolidation retrace)


----------



## ectoplasm (7 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



ectoplasm said:


> Yes, long term I agree with Nick, but I see many tradable levels on the journey: initial resistance at @ ~$1.30, and some gaps fills on the way higher.
> 
> BTW the US stockmarket seems to be following Zmbabwe's lead when the printing presses are used (i.e. it is on the golden stairway higher). Most seem to think 10% gains in our market this year, but could surprise to the upside IMO (with usual consolidation retrace)




Looks like that journey has commenced! KZL has jumped out of the blocks thismorning ~ Trust you have your ticket......


----------



## lioness (7 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



ectoplasm said:


> Looks like that journey has commenced! KZL has jumped out of the blocks thismorning ~ Trust you have your ticket......




Hi Ecto,

Yep I grabbed tickets at 1.05, I am not getting off the train until $2, but reckon this will be $3 plus by year end.

Wait for the Mungana announcement and Admiral Bay for a real jump. Today was just a practice.


----------



## ectoplasm (7 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



lioness said:


> Hi Ecto,
> 
> Yep I grabbed tickets at 1.05, I am not getting off the train until $2, but reckon this will be $3 plus by year end.
> 
> Wait for the Mungana announcement and Admiral Bay for a real jump. Today was just a practice.




It has been a great day, but lets not get ahead of ourselves ~ the chart below shows estimated first resistance (@ $1.32), and the way price action and volume have been behaving lately I'm not sure how much resistance will be there (particularly if favourable company announcement is made soon). Next resistance around $1.50, & there will be plenty of time to top up on the way through to $2.00  etc...

Today's action below:


----------



## ectoplasm (9 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



ectoplasm said:


> It has been a great day, but lets not get ahead of ourselves ~ the chart below shows estimated first resistance (@ $1.32), and the way price action and volume have been behaving lately I'm not sure how much resistance will be there (particularly if favourable company announcement is made soon). Next resistance around $1.50, & there will be plenty of time to top up on the way through to $2.00  etc...
> 
> Today's action below:




Little bit of consolidation music required, and then I guess the trend will continue higher ~ initial target ~$1.32 before stepping higher...

Chart:


----------



## lioness (9 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



ectoplasm said:


> Little bit of consolidation music required, and then I guess the trend will continue higher ~ initial target ~$1.32 before stepping higher...
> 
> Chart:



Hi Ecto,

For your consolidation music, I would like to nominate Kylie Minogue "I could be so lucky, lucky, lucky, lucky, I could be so lucky I bought KZL"


----------



## UMike (11 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



UMike said:


> Ahhh well.
> 
> If they got to $1.145 I'd be bragging right now.
> 
> Nice to hear JB Were and Wilsons have an upgraded target.... Hope they are right.



Lucky i waited a bit.

Let 40% of my holding go @ $1.275. 

Gotta be happy with that. 

Actually I'd be happy if it went either way now.


----------



## ectoplasm (14 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



UMike said:


> Lucky i waited a bit.
> 
> Let 40% of my holding go @ $1.275.
> 
> ...




Hi UMike & lioness,

Well picked UMike ~ I was a bit more greedy (looking for ~$1.30) and so am still holding. Gap support is holding and I think Kilie may need to change to impulsive song shortly.

Daily chart: Must be top up time


----------



## lioness (14 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



ectoplasm said:


> Hi UMike & lioness,
> 
> Well picked UMike ~ I was a bit more greedy (looking for ~$1.30) and so am still holding. Gap support is holding and I think Kilie may need to change to impulsive song shortly.
> 
> Daily chart: Must be top up time




Your right Ecto,

Just changed the jukebox from Kylie to Rage against the machine - Killing in the name of KZL.

This is to terminate the autobots which are all over KZL like the measles.


----------



## UMike (15 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



ectoplasm said:


> Hi UMike & lioness,
> 
> Well picked UMike ~ I was a bit more greedy (looking for ~$1.30) and so am still holding. Gap support is holding and I think Kilie may need to change to impulsive song shortly.
> 
> Daily chart: Must be top up time



Was thinking to top up at $1.1 and even started looking at $1.15. Might not get back down there though. Seems like it'll be an even or slightly down day.

Really, I got enough and hope it hits the $1.50 that some(in here) have been predicting.


----------



## UMike (29 January 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Thought I was super smart (and lucky). Got what I sold back @ $1.025 Monday. 

Quarterly Activity Report (for the period ending 31 December 2009) Out now.
Got some more @ $.91  Hope thats the last I buy for a while.




Half Year Report for the six months ended, 31 December 2009, will be released during the week beginning 22 February 2010.


----------



## YELNATS (16 May 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Received a very detailed and expensive looking IPO package offering shares in KZL spin-off Mungana Gold Mines at 95 cents a share.

Closing date for accepting the priority retail offer is Tuesday May 18.

Gold is doing well at the moment, but any thoughts about the future and value of this offering at 95 cents?


----------



## UMike (16 May 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



YELNATS said:


> Received a very detailed and expensive looking IPO package offering shares in KZL spin-off Mungana Gold Mines at 95 cents a share.
> 
> Closing date for accepting the priority retail offer is Tuesday May 18.
> 
> Gold is doing well at the moment, but any thoughts about the future and value of this offering at 95 cents?



I'm eligble for about 4,000 (1 in 16) and intend to get 5,000. Doing this on Monday.

As with any IPO anything could happen to it. I'm punting that the 95c/share has not got any of the recent Gold price surge upside in it. Then again it hasn't got the "SUPER TAX" down side in it either.


----------



## springhill (16 May 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



lioness said:


> Your right Ecto,
> 
> Just changed the jukebox from Kylie to Rage against the machine - Killing in the name of KZL.
> 
> This is to terminate the autobots which are all over KZL like the measles.




Don't know much or care much for Kagara but lioness, love your taste in music :band greatest band of all time!


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## skivvy (29 July 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Anyone watching KZL at the moment, I entered a trade today at 67c.  Nice uptrend in place and looking for the trend to continue.


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## pixel (29 July 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



skivvy said:


> Anyone watching KZL at the moment, I entered a trade today at 67c.  Nice uptrend in place and looking for the trend to continue.




KZL came up on my radar in May/June. The EOFY sell-off turned that into a bit of a disappointing false start - stopping me out just in time before the big Sale into the 40's 
Of course it recovered - funny that? It's still the same company, doing the same things they've always done - rather well at that. Only took a small start position, when my chart reported the recovery; waiting for the break of the minor High in June - to be sure to be sure. I even let the Friday rally go, but the confirmation on the 26th was invitation enough to double-up at 62c.

How far?
Good question  I see some resistance close by, say 70.5 to 71c. That's mainly based on Fibonacci analysis.
I'd accept a retracement of sorts from there, as long as it doesn't close below my stop level (green horizontal) at 59.5c; I'd accept a quick intraday dip, while not very comfortable, just to close Monday's breakout gap. But the breakout volume would suggest there is much more upside - quite possibly back to $1 and beyond. With that in mind, I'm now holding KZL for longer in an "investment" portfolio.


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## UMike (30 July 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Sold about a quater Yesrterday @68.5c

It broke out of a nice trading range but I doubt it'll sky rocket.

I've been a long term holder and will continue buying the dips and selling some as it goes up.

I think I'll gets some more below 60c before it rises above 72.5 if I am allowed to make that statement (prediction).


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## UMike (14 October 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

*"Kagara Limited (ASX: KZL) (“Kagara”) announces it intends to make an off-market cash takeover bid
(“Offer”) at 11 cents per share for all of the shares in North Queensland explorer Copper Strike Limited
(ASX:CSE) (“Copper Strike”), providing the opportunity to further consolidate ownership of base metal
deposits in Far North Queensland and to provide the opportunity for rapid development of the Einasleigh
copper deposit."*: from the ann 12-10-2010

Not often the takeover company has such a share price lift.

You'd think with CSE trading about the 12.5c mark the offer would have to be raised. Probably not an issue though.


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## kingkev (26 November 2010)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Looks like CSE are still complaining about the offer.  If they do not accept......what will happen to both share prices??????? I suspect that this is a done deal and will wait for the upturn in Kagara sp.  Admiral bay is worth waiting for...................it could still be a long wait though


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## Trader Paul (2 January 2011)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



Hi folks,

KZL ... features a positive time cycle, early in the week, that may 
give us a good start, with a lunar trigger on Tuesday ... 

Happy trading in 2011 to all here ... !~!

happy new year

paul



=====


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## UMike (4 January 2011)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Nice to hear. Offloaded some at $.85 and picked the same lot up at $.745.

Nice on to buy small lots at the dips and sell them at the peaks while holding for the longish term.


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## pixel (4 January 2011)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



UMike said:


> Nice to hear. Offloaded some at $.85 and picked the same lot up at $.745.
> 
> Nice on to buy small lots at the dips and sell them at the peaks while holding for the longish term.



 I'm not into NRL; AFL is more popular over here.
But I do agree with you re: holding KZL for the long term, while still picking up some extra trading credits on the swings and roundabouts


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## Gerkin (31 January 2011)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



kingkev said:


> Looks like CSE are still complaining about the offer.  If they do not accept......what will happen to both share prices??????? I suspect that this is a done deal and will wait for the upturn in Kagara sp.  Admiral bay is worth waiting for...................it could still be a long wait though




looks like tom eadie does a better job than kzl directors attracting financing


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## UMike (1 February 2011)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



Gerkin said:


> looks like tom eadie does a better job than kzl directors attracting financing



Seems a very complicated deal though.

Seems that another Aussie minning comp is being taken over at a premium by a foreign country.
Huge difference between 11c and 18c.


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## pixel (1 February 2011)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

I'm no longer Long;
if this move plays out as a double top, even 64c may not hold support.


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## kingkev (4 February 2011)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Becoming increasingly difficult to guess where the sp is going on this stock.  Mad fluctuations with very little coming from announcements.  Buying in the dips is great if the dip is not too steep but difficult to guage.  Hpoing support will be a bit more than 64


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## kingkev (10 March 2011)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Well Pixel, I think you have called this one correct.  64c really looks like a struggle to hold.  Is this the dip we expected and is this the time to get in again

Looks like 62c might not hold either


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## UMike (12 December 2011)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

So they want to do a Capital raising????

Isn't the market tired of these???


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## joea (30 April 2012)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

Maybe news on Kagara today.
joea


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## skc (30 April 2012)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



joea said:


> Maybe news on Kagara today.
> joea




News already out isn't it?

R.I.P.


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## joea (30 April 2012)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*



skc said:


> News already out isn't it?
> 
> R.I.P.




yeah I meant to put it in this morning early as I was going through last month stock tipping. But I got sidetracked. Zinc price has let them down.
joea


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## System (15 August 2014)

*Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc*

On August 11th, 2014, Kagara Limited (KZL) was removed from the ASX's official list following the request of the Company.


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## UMike (19 August 2014)

I reckon there should be a book written on this


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