# How's everyone going??



## TjamesX (30 March 2005)

Well hasn't it been a bumpy ride the last few weeks.

The XAO has fallen from its top of around 4280 and is currently at about 4050. This is about 5.5% move in a week. Kinda puts into perspective the feeling that people must have had in 1987 when the market fell 20% in a day!!!

I have sold 60% of my holdings in the last two days. Overall I'm still up about 10% for the year (from Jul) but this figure has taken a bit of a beating in the last week. Some people I tend to listen to on other forums have sold 100% - they see much more to come.....

What are peoples views about the general market over the short/medium term?? - I believe this is the start of the correction we had to have..... To be followed by a larger rise (over the next year) and then the bust we had to have (that will be driven by fundamental consumer spending tightening possibly leading to a recession).... but this is pure speculation!

I am willing to ride the next wave (emphasis on resources) - with caution

TJ


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## tech/a (30 March 2005)

Getting belted,but still currently in the parameters.

Prefer that winning feeling though!


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## DTM (30 March 2005)

There should be a bounce soon.  I was thinking maybe Thursday, Friday, but definitely one early next week.


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## DTM (30 March 2005)

Seeing that everyone's doing it tough in the market at the moment, I thought a joke might cheer things up.



A young man named Aphie joined the Army and signed up with the paratroopers. He went though the standard training, completed the practice jumps from higher and higher structures, and finally went to take his first jump
from an airplane. The next day, Aphie called home to his father to tell
him the news.

"So, did you jump?" Aphie's father asked.

"Well, let me tell you what happened. We got up in the plane, and the
sergeant opened up the door and asked for volunteers.
About a dozen men got up and just walked out of the plane!"

"Is that when you jumped?" asked his father.

"Um, not yet. Then the sergeant started to grab the other men one at a
time and throw them out the door."

"Did you jump then?" asked his father.

"I'm getting to that. Every one else had jumped, and I was the last
man left on the plane. I told the sergeant that I was too
scared to jump. He told me to get off the plane or he'd kick my butt."

"So, did you jump?"

"Not then. He tried to push me out of the plane, but I grabbed onto
the door and refused to go. Finally he called over the Jump Master.
The Jump Master is this great big guy, about six-foot five, and 250
pounds. He said to me, `Boy, are you gonna jump or not?' I said, `No,
sir. I'm too scared.' So the Jump Master pulled down his zipper and
took his penis out. I swear, it was about ten inches long and as big
around as a baseball bat! He said, `Boy, either you jump out that
door, or I'm sticking this little baby up your ass.'"

"So, did you jump?" asked his father.

"Well... a little, at first."


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## GreatPig (30 March 2005)

I've mostly sold out. I'm only still holding three stocks at this point, two because they're still hanging on okay and the third because it's got very low volume and a wide spread between bid and offer (I'm about even on that one at the moment).

I only started getting in back in December though, so these last few days in particular have been taking a toll. I didn't want to start losing any of my initial capital, so that's why I've sold right down for now.

Cheers,
GP


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## markrmau (30 March 2005)

March was my bumper month until the last 5 days or so. I was $10k up, but letting my profits run. Now I think I am about even for the month (ie lost $10k in this correction).

Bought 750 ANZ @ 2051 as I see signs of support.

Would love to buy BHP but am all margined out (basically MCR stuffed me, but it is seeing support now too).

Tech, did you sell your MCR on 10% stoploss?


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## DTM (30 March 2005)

XJO finished near where it started giving us a nice doji for today.  Was today a hesitation of the fall and will continue again tomorrow? or will it bounce up?  

Hard to say but by tomorrow morning we'll see.


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## markrmau (30 March 2005)

Intraday xjo. Bargain hunting/short covering? Closed not too far from high, and fair bit above low. I think it will be up tomorrow.


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## Porper (30 March 2005)

I think what we are seeing are the stocks that have run up on hype are taking the biggest nosedive.I have just watched NMSO (which I hold) go down 100 % in little over a week.I sold over half my holdings today  for what seems a very dissapointing 70 % profit, seems a failure however, which it shouldn't.The same has happened to NOGOC.

2 things in common with these shares-----.They have ran hard on speculation about possible announcements.Now the market has turned they are being thumped.

I was unfortunate enough to get caught in the crash in 87, when I was a teenager, bought "penny shares" on all the hype that was around then and promptly lost 80 % of  my investment.I am not saying I think the market is going to crash now, but when it does the penny dreadfuls will coming crashing down like you wouldn't believe.

We do all need to be careful.Lets hope the good times continue a while yet.


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## DTM (30 March 2005)

Porper said:
			
		

> I think what we are seeing are the stocks that have run up on hype are taking the biggest nosedive.I have just watched NMSO (which I hold) go down 100 % in little over a week.I sold over half my holdings today  for what seems a very dissapointing 70 % profit, seems a failure however, which it shouldn't.The same has happened to NOGOC.
> 
> 2 things in common with these shares-----.They have ran hard on speculation about possible announcements.Now the market has turned they are being thumped.
> 
> ...




The XSO (small companies index) took a hammering today.  Looks like it will continue to fall.


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## doctorj (30 March 2005)

I've had my stops pretty tight, so most of my stops have been hit.   Still hold a handful of speccies that have run hard in the past month or so that have wider stops as a result.

All in all, certainly has been a humbling experience but one that should hopefully make us all better traders.


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## knit 1 pearl 2 (31 March 2005)

is the decline not a buying opportunity???
If some one can tell me how far this is going to go, it would be good. Think i'll go see the astrologer tommorrow!(Joking)

And remember a lot of the drop is from XD shares and really steep rises in the market generally of late. I dont think we can expect the market to rise 2.5% every month for ever, dreaming really.

So hope every one does look back and say, there was a missed chance at getting in on dec prices in march! Wish i was around in '87 to buy then.

I must say that i have a long term (2 year to run) plan, and there is no place else to get 6%(via dividends)  on your money, Or is there??


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## TjamesX (31 March 2005)

knit 1 pearl 2 said:
			
		

> I must say that i have a long term (2 year to run) plan, and there is no place else to get 6%(via dividends)  on your money, Or is there??




Well I've heard the Bankwest? savings accounts can get pretty close - risk free!!, this is if your assuming 0 capital gains along with those dividends.

IMHO we haven't seen the top in this cycle, but if this is a correction then the buying opportunties may get better. Technically as has been mentioned, a lower high would be the not so good signal. Then again I've heard that it could be just the hedge funds selling out profitable positions for the end of the month to negate bond market losses???

Longer term company profits will generally be limited by level of demand in the economy - which at its heart is the everyday consumer. When the everyday consumer wakes up and doesn't feel as wealthy/secure as they used to be is when the music will begin to stop, then its just a time delay before it makes its way onto the company report. IMO the level of debt average joe is in has ensured that this day will happen in the next couple of years.

But I'm also an amature at economics - do we have any real ones out there???

TJ


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## roofus (31 March 2005)

anyone still think trading isnt a gamble after the last couple of days??


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## Jett_Star (31 March 2005)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Getting belted,but still currently in the parameters.
> 
> Prefer that winning feeling though!




Getting belted.... that sounds pretty harsh

Glad to hear you are still within your parameters


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## DTM (12 April 2005)

Porper said:
			
		

> I think what we are seeing are the stocks that have run up on hype are taking the biggest nosedive.I have just watched NMSO (which I hold) go down 100 % in little over a week.I sold over half my holdings today  for what seems a very dissapointing 70 % profit, seems a failure however, which it shouldn't.The same has happened to NOGOC.
> 
> 2 things in common with these shares-----.They have ran hard on speculation about possible announcements.Now the market has turned they are being thumped.
> 
> ...




Looks like XJO and XSO could be doing it tough tomorrow.


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## Investor (26 April 2005)

The current issue of BRW (Top 500 companies' profits hit top gear) provides some insight into the current health of the corporate sector and perhaps might put some perspective to the current market correction.

This is probably the correction we had to have, to instil a reality check that "trees do not grow to heaven". 

Taking the big dividend cheques recently paid, into account, the correction (ex dividend) has been mild. Unless the wrong stocks (Pacifica, Repco, PMP, FMG - I did not hold any of these) were held.

It might seem obvious but picking the right shares has always been crucial. 

From a macro economic viewpoint, it was evident that consumer discretionary stocks would fall, due to rising interest rates, rising petrol prices, rising household debt (hence debt servicing costs) and the fact that many people are "shopped out" (how many more TVs, computers, furniture, electrical gadgets, cameras, hi fi equipment can we possibly fit into the homes, despite renovations to extend).

If we get hit by a recession (it cannot be that far away considering how long ago the last one occurred - mid '90), consumer discretionary stocks would fall further.

Next sector to fall (evident since a few years ago) - Most manufacturing stocks. In case people have not noticed, the manufacturing sector has been gradually decimated because China has become the world's factory. It is now moving up the food chain towards elaborately manufactured goods. When it starts exporting cars here a few years down the track, the last bastion of manufacturing here (the car industry) would probably fall. Time will tell.

Most long term investors would probably have reviewed their portfolio and positioned for changed economic conditions (local conditions - global conditions involve very deep analysis) going forward, selecting stocks that can withstand an economic storm. 

Resource stocks are in a unique category. Some say peaked. Others say, more rises to come. All depends whether one believes in the super cycle and the secular change. Also depends on some huge unprecedented macro economic issues. Time will tell.

Traders might have several field days with increased volatility (just make sure you pick the right direction). Volatility is normal (due to Mr Market's mood swings), the relatively long period of low volatility that we had for almost 2 years was perhaps, an aberration brought about by the carry trade (the free ride on the yield curve). 

Just avoid those stocks that can totally collapse. There will be a few.


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## tech/a (27 April 2005)

Well after getting back to the "desk" and over veiwing the carnage while I was away moy total portfolio closed out 3 of 8 stocks held,as they hit their stops.


This leaves 5 in my portfolio and a peak to valley drawdown of 6% at its worst,now 5% so really I'm happy at this point.

Just part of trading really.


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## markrmau (27 April 2005)

Do you have some sort of completely automated system (ie system that automattically sell when TT gives a sell signal), or did you have to manually sell things while you were away?


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## tech/a (27 April 2005)

Mark no its not automated.
My broker knows how the method works and he just sold (Under my instructions)when exits were hit.

All made a $ ---they could have held out a few more months though!!---TAX.


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