# Buy with open arms?



## noirua (5 April 2010)

I stayed in cash too long, since December 2009. It looks as if markets may now boom like they never have before - ASX200 is a laggard in the world recovery and may test 10,000 by 2014???
The mining sector is high risk but pointers show it vastly undervalued, however, your smaller stocks may not be keeping up unless they're coal and iron ore related of late???  Small stocks in the mining and oil sector often boom before a major collapse and may well race away, even uranium exploration minnows???
China is set to revalue its currency we're told. If so the USA will be happy bunnies. China shares are set to rocket off the map???
Fill-your-boots me lads and make hay whilst the sun shines???


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## sam76 (5 April 2010)

I see you have drunk from the glass which is half full this morning, mate, lol


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## Boyou (5 April 2010)

I certainly do like your optimism ,noirua! 

Can you please explain the substance of it.Why do you feel that the market will boom very soon?

I agree that many miners are way undervalued (many of mine are) ..please give us the facts..


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## cutz (5 April 2010)

Are you for real noirua,

I sense a touch of sarcasm in your post ?


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## noirua (5 April 2010)

cutz said:


> Are you for real noirua,
> 
> I sense a touch of sarcasm in your post ?




How dare you sarcasm my post??? : You may be stopping many from obtaining massive wealth??? :shake: My post comes with guarantees and a certain payback sum ???


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## noirua (5 April 2010)

Boyou said:


> I certainly do like your optimism ,noirua!
> 
> Can you please explain the substance of it.Why do you feel that the market will boom very soon?
> 
> I agree that many miners are way undervalued (many of mine are) ..please give us the facts..




Start to boom, indeed, it already has. The substance of it? Wellllll, it's a feeling I've started to get in my waters or, was it, due to intense reading, ah yes, research. The iron ore agreement, PCI coal, growth in the States, China's continued boom and imminent revaluation; problems of Greece solved; and even the UK are seeing improvements. There are of course ???

Small miners are mega high risk. Yours could be undervalued, as you inter-mate - not wishing to be rude, but, many small miners are a load of c... and will go under. High risk I suppose and only for gambling cash. Though something in my waters tells me that one of yours is a little gem, no question of it???


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## bazollie (5 April 2010)

I tend to agree with you Noirua, I travel through the Bowen Basin regularly and the number of drill rigs out there chasing coal and coal seam gas is amazing. There is another small coal company float coming up ( Endocoal ) with some well placed leases and Stanmore ( SMR ) has been appreciating very well since listing.

Add to that companies such as BOW, ESG, STO, EXE, AOE in the LNG market and Central Queensland is poised for some intensive growth over the next 5 years or so. 

I am sure that the same can be said for emerging Iron Ore Companies in the west. I am not too familiar with what's on offer over that way but with the recent Iron Ore negotiations it can only be positive news. 

I do like the small emerging energy stocks and feel that it will be an interesting sector in the short to medium term. 

My 2 bobs worth anyway!

Regards
bazollie


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## Boyou (5 April 2010)

noirua said:


> Start to boom, indeed, it already has. The substance of it? Wellllll, it's a feeling I've started to get in my waters or, was it, due to intense reading, ah yes, research. The iron ore agreement, PCI coal, growth in the States, China's continued boom and imminent revaluation; problems of Greece solved; and even the UK are seeing improvements. There are of course ???
> 
> Small miners are mega high risk. Yours could be undervalued, as you inter-mate - not wishing to be rude, but, many small miners are a load of c... and will go under. High risk I suppose and only for gambling cash. Though something in my waters tells me that one of yours is a little gem, no question of it???




Thanks for the clarity..I agree with you on the risky nature of spec miners..
I can PM you my current holdings and you can give me your picks..not often I get to consult an oracle


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## Uncle Festivus (5 April 2010)

Maybe RIO execs are taking the iron ore to China in their pockets on Qantas flights?


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## noirua (6 April 2010)

Boyou said:


> Thanks for the clarity..I agree with you on the risky nature of spec miners..
> I can PM you my current holdings and you can give me your picks..not often I get to consult an oracle




Yes indeed, an oracle. Once I was called a god, unfortunately someone typed it round the wrong way and I subsequently lost credibility - on the way to being a guru at the time.
Seriously though folks, this could well be the moment???


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## noirua (6 April 2010)

All round the world the boom signs are opening up???  Arms opening this morning to swallow up stock??? This may well be it???


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## noirua (7 April 2010)

The stock markets of the world have now reached the point where they are able to climb the wall of worry??? The wall looks extremely high as markets are cheap compared with 1999???  Are you sure about that noi? By gad I am???


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## Pivotonian (7 April 2010)

10K by 2014??  I don't think so.


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## Space Invader101 (8 April 2010)

This thread just seems too over speculative for my liking. I do, however, have shares in a couple of ASX200 coal companies that have been doing well.

As for 2014, I really don't care.  I'll just be happy to get through 2010.

(Nothing personal, just too much pain during the GFC.  I don't like getting excited only to find my hopes and dreams get swiped from me.)


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## Bushman (8 April 2010)

noirua said:


> I stayed in cash too long, since December 2009. It looks as if markets may now boom like they never have before - ASX200 is a laggard in the world recovery and may test 10,000 by 2014???
> The mining sector is high risk but pointers show it vastly undervalued, however, your smaller stocks may not be keeping up unless they're coal and iron ore related of late???  Small stocks in the mining and oil sector often boom before a major collapse and may well race away, even uranium exploration minnows???
> China is set to revalue its currency we're told. If so the USA will be happy bunnies. China shares are set to rocket off the map???
> Fill-your-boots me lads and make hay whilst the sun shines???




You are not a taxi driver are you?


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## Whiskers (8 April 2010)

Bushman said:


> You are not a taxi driver are you?




...or Prodigal Son!?


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## noirua (9 April 2010)

It takes a bit of guts to plunge into stocks and risk your all.  Check the history of the ASX200. Check the high point around 2000 and look now and see what inflation should have added to this index. 10,000 is not a high expectation by 2014.

The bell has rung and the time has come ???????


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## noirua (10 April 2010)

Closer to the point in recent times the ASX 200 was at a low point on 3/4/2003 at 2,744 and a high of 6,605 on 1/10/2007. The present marker is 4,948.  So a reasonable new high of 7,000 in 2010 would seem, on the face of it, to not be beyond expectations.
2014 would then need a rise of a further, from 7,000, of 42% over four years. Not unreasonable???


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## So_Cynical (10 April 2010)

noirua said:


> I stayed in cash too long, since December 2009. It looks as if markets may now boom like they never have before - ASX200 is a laggard in the world recovery and may test 10,000 by 2014???
> The mining sector is high risk but pointers show it vastly undervalued




Buy with open arms? .. i certainly have been and continue to.

I sold out of 2 gold stocks in Feb 09 for a small profit, turned out to be great timing as i caught a intermediate major gold top and a general market bottom, and it freed up about 14K...so got busy buying the lows and so glad i did, here's a comparison chart of my 10 buys im still holding in part or whole brought between Feb 09 and Oct 09

1 in big trouble, 1 spectacular (dividend paying) result and 8 others with gains between 25 and 95% and 7 of them paying divis . ... i would be soooooooooooooooo pissed off if i had missed all the wonderful action of 09
~


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## takeprofits (11 April 2010)

WOW. All this optimism makes me feel that It's time to be fearful!


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## greebly24 (11 April 2010)

Been reading lots of stuff about a super bubble developing in China. Not sure what's going to happen but some pretty big hedge funds (ie Dick Chanos') are betting on the bubble bursting soon. The communist govt there have to keep growth above 8% just to stay in power. They are only managing that by building property, including empty cities (see Ordos). Lots of developers might not be able to repay their loans for empty skyscrapers. When the GFC hit, China's exports dropped massively as did their heavy rail traffic. They lied about continued growth, then lent lots of money to make empty buildings. Sustainable? Hmm.

If the China bubble pops, the world's stock markets will drop. It will harshly affect Australia by a plunge in commodity prices as occurred during the GFC. The 25-year super boom in mining royalties may not occur. Also, remember that the reason most of the Western world didn't experience a second great depression is because it borrowed so much money. The original problem of too much debt has only been pushed down the road.

I think piling your entire capital into mining shares would be very risky indeed.

Oh yeah, the best thing I read about it all recently was this quote:

_"40% of the world's population has a great plan to get rich by selling stuff to 14% of the world's population..." _


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## noirua (11 April 2010)

takeprofits said:


> WOW. All this optimism makes me feel that It's time to be fearful!




I've tried to remain with not less than 70% cash for over 20 years now. This is, in itself, a form of risk reduction when investing in the high risk mining and oil sector. [I suppose it also depends on earnings, pensions received etc., and a persons debts, as to what further risk they should take on]


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## MRC & Co (11 April 2010)

takeprofits said:


> WOW. All this optimism makes me feel that It's time to be fearful!




A good contrarian indicator.  BUT.......

Data shows that it is only recently that retail investors are starting to flow back into the market.

Probably not enough to squeeze yet and they are probably what is slowly dribbling this market higher.  

That being said, coming into reporting season, we could see fireworks at some point.  Anything is possible.

As for Chinese bubble, would a raising Yuan and hence, movement of foreign capital into China providing additional capital flow, enable medium term sustainability of the bull?  Need to do more research on the Chinese scenario.  That being said, China is not in vogue at the moment, so it's impact won't be as severe as it would have been a year ago.  Though, of course, commodies/commodity currencies would cop the brunt of it.  Many funds though, seem to be moving into the Asian region more and more, which will insulate any potential 'crash'.


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## Julia (11 April 2010)

greebly24 said:


> Also, remember that the reason most of the Western world didn't experience a second great depression is because it borrowed so much money. The original problem of too much debt has only been pushed down the road.



This seems to be being very conveniently ignored by all the spruikers who assure us a real recovery is well and truly under way.


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## takeprofits (12 April 2010)

MRC & Co said:


> A good contrarian indicator.  BUT.......
> 
> Data shows that it is only recently that retail investors are starting to flow back into the market.





Yet another indicator for me to start reducing my exposure.

The smart money bought shares March 2009 and earlier. Now the dumb money are buying overvalued shares trying to get in on the action.

Think I'll hold some cash and wait for the next crash!


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## skyQuake (12 April 2010)

greebly24 said:


> Been reading lots of stuff about a super bubble developing in China. Not sure what's going to happen but some pretty big hedge funds (ie Dick Chanos') are betting on the bubble bursting soon. The communist govt there have to keep growth above 8% just to stay in power. They are only managing that by building property, including empty cities (see Ordos). Lots of developers might not be able to repay their loans for empty skyscrapers. When the GFC hit, China's exports dropped massively as did their heavy rail traffic. They lied about continued growth, then lent lots of money to make empty buildings. Sustainable? Hmm.
> 
> If the China bubble pops, the world's stock markets will drop. It will harshly affect Australia by a plunge in commodity prices as occurred during the GFC. The 25-year super boom in mining royalties may not occur. Also, remember that the reason most of the Western world didn't experience a second great depression is because it borrowed so much money. The original problem of too much debt has only been pushed down the road.
> 
> ...




Care to clarify which part of china is the super bubble? Eco? Property? Stocks? All of the above?

Also, that 14% has a GDP per capita 7 times of the 40% so it doesn't look too bad from a wealth flow point of view.


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## sageintraining (12 April 2010)

Chinese banks are built on sand, if you apply proper accounting to these banks they'd be technically insolvent mostly because of the portfolios being consisted of state run enterprises so they just do constant roll overs.

The growth is real though people, the indicators such as electricity use and other energy consumption is consistent with the numbers. What people should watch out for is the property prices... I think it was in the papers, the chinese buying up property here and trying to insulate from the bubble in china. I even asked a few academics (economics wise) and they both said they were pretty positive that china is a bubble waiting to burst, one of them even put a timeline on it, 12-18 months. 

Remains to see.. the ball is in with the chinese.. we'll see if they can manoeuvre through this maze; containing a bubble whilst sustaining growth.


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## Unnamed User (12 April 2010)

sageintraining said:


> Chinese banks are built on sand, if you apply proper accounting to these banks they'd be technically insolvent mostly because of the portfolios being consisted of state run enterprises so they just do constant roll overs.




Looking forward to you providing the financial reports of these banks so you can show us exactly where they are invested.


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## noirua (13 April 2010)

Markets continue bullish and we still have to see a concerted uplift in the small mining sector, 'though there are signs now, to signal the end of what may be the final push. Always interesting when the likes of the Chinese property crash are signaled by Gurus in number. A big boost in uranium minnows should see an end to the mining rally, when it comes???

ASX 200 over 5,000, again of course, and 'buy with open arms' still looks right???


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## sageintraining (13 April 2010)

Unnamed User said:


> Looking forward to you providing the financial reports of these banks so you can show us exactly where they are invested.




haha, I cant tell you. Im just stating what i've read in magazines and from my lecturers.


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## Uncle Festivus (13 April 2010)

noirua said:


> Markets continue bullish and we still have to see a concerted uplift in the small mining sector, 'though there are signs now, to signal the end of what may be the final push. Always interesting when the likes of the Chinese property crash are signaled by Gurus in number. A big boost in uranium minnows should see an end to the mining rally, when it comes???
> 
> ASX 200 over 5,000, again of course, and 'buy with open arms' still looks right???




What are you buying today on the 'pullback'?


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## Trembling Hand (13 April 2010)

Uncle Festivus said:


> What are you buying today on the 'pullback'?




Where is the rage? I don't like this amusing behaviour.


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## WaveSurfer (13 April 2010)

greebly24 said:


> ....The original problem of too much debt has only been pushed down the road...




Yeah, a concern indeed.

Oh my, this bucket has a hole in it and it's losing water...

Just keep filling it up with water, forget about the hole


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## Uncle Festivus (13 April 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Where is the rage? I don't like this amusing behaviour.




Ha ha! The only rage I know is on the ABC Friday & Satdee nights 

Maybe I'm not me at all? 

Buy silver  that would make me LOL

And then there's this, I could hardly believe my eyes - 

April 13 (Bloomberg) Super trader Trembling Hand has stunned his followers with a raging buy recommendation for the little traded commodity Silver. According to well connected insiders, the high flying trader, who once nearly bankrupted the Bank Of England, has almost cornered the market with Comex longs. He was heard to comment recently "My complete dominance of the Silver market will maka the Hunt brothers attempt look like a Bert & Erny audition for American Idol"

(The things you do on a slow day )


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## MRC & Co (13 April 2010)

sageintraining said:


> .. we'll see if they can manoeuvre through this maze; containing a bubble whilst sustaining growth.




lol, like the West has done for the good part of a century?  It's called liquidity, and China has built lots of it!  I'm sure there will be sharp scares, but it will keep on keeping on as long as these Commies keep acting like capitalists and economic growth continues to be so valued by the free spirits of those of the fat religeous B man.


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## noirua (14 April 2010)

Uncle Festivus said:


> What are you buying today on the 'pullback'?




'pullback', what pullback? I'm continuing to buy stock up to my 30% limit rule (70% remaining in cash and bonds), now at about 83%.
I don't see, IMHO, any big declines in stocks (excluding the takeover candidates) this year. 
Buy with open arms??? - but stay 65% to 75% in cash or short term bonds to reduce risk.
Buying one stock today but wont say which as it trades infrequently.

A strong currency is good with China and others buying into the Aussie sector. [could be a too strong Aussie and too strong Yuan - either way it shouldn't matter.] Not good news for those looking for European tourists and others in weak currency zones - Australia Zoo prices in British Pounds are up 40% in a year, tough, should keep certain foreigners out of Australia and some may be flying back as their pensions aren't worth much now - depends how you feel I suppose.


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## Uncle Festivus (14 April 2010)

noirua said:


> 'pullback', what pullback? I'm continuing to buy stock up to my 30% limit rule (70% remaining in cash and bonds), now at about 83%.
> I don't see, IMHO, any big declines in stocks (excluding the takeover candidates) this year.
> Buy with open arms??? - but stay 65% to 75% in cash or short term bonds to reduce risk.
> Buying one stock today but wont say which as it trades infrequently.
> ...




'Buying with open arms' but limit to 30% to reduce risk? 70% cash and bonds is not unbridled optimism in the market is it?


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## Bushman (14 April 2010)

Uncle Festivus said:


> 'Buying with open arms' but limit to 30% to reduce risk? 70% cash and bonds is not unbridled optimism in the market is it?




Standard 30/30/30/10 portfolio allocation model.


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## noirua (15 April 2010)

Uncle Festivus said:


> 'Buying with open arms' but limit to 30% to reduce risk? 70% cash and bonds is not unbridled optimism in the market is it?




It all depends what the 30% cash is, not that it could be proved so there's no point saying. I remember some of the posts after the dotcom crash where some borrowed money to buy shares. Plenty made $50,000 a week during the run up to nasdaq 5,000. Shares are risky, only invest if you can afford the money - Yes! We all know that bit but forget as the great bull arrives.


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## Uncle Festivus (15 April 2010)

The point is, now that you have reached your 'limit' (was that even before the thread was started?) you are not 'buying with open arms' - thread redundant????


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## Atomic (17 April 2010)

Bushman said:


> Standard 30/30/30/10 portfolio allocation model.




could you expand on that for me bushman


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## noirua (17 April 2010)

Have a few days off regarding buying with open arms. The Chinese have got the hump over paying so much for iron ore and Goldman Sachs have been accused of defrauding investors over sub-prime mortgages by America's Financial Regulators. The aircraft industry is in trouble across the pod as Icelands' volcano creates chaos.


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## yonnie (17 April 2010)

2 big crashes in 2-3 years??? dont think so.
people always see problems everywhere.

we`ll be going sideways and up for the next 4 years at least with a few retraces along the way


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## yonnie (18 April 2010)

buying with open arms? yes, but only after a pull back.


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## noirua (20 April 2010)

Well, it seems there is more interest in Icelands' volcano than Goldman Sachs. So, arms open again and fill your boots???


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## Whiskers (20 April 2010)

noirua said:


> Well, it seems there is more interest in Icelands' volcano than Goldman Sachs. So, arms open again and fill your boots???





What's on the bargain list for today?


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## noirua (21 April 2010)

Whiskers said:


> What's on the bargain list for today?




I've got many shares on my bargain list, so many, and worldwide. Unfortunately ASF may delete the share tips so there's no point in listing them all. You could try a pin in the ASX 300, stick it in about 50 times (putting the names in a hat could be safer), eyes closed of course, and put $4K in each, sit down, and watch the action. Then go to the UK, their dog currency could revive after the election over there, footsie 100, (many stocks are international anyway) stick pin in 25 times and invest A$10K in each. Then go to the DOW 40, stick pin in 10 times and invest A$25K in each.  - good day noi


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## Unnamed User (21 April 2010)

noirua said:


> I've got many shares on my bargain list, so many, and worldwide. Unfortunately ASF may delete the share tips so there's no point in listing them all. You could try a pin in the ASX 300, stick it in about 50 times (putting the names in a hat could be safer), eyes closed of course, and put $4K in each, sit down, and watch the action. Then go to the UK, their dog currency could revive after the election over there, footsie 100, (many stocks are international anyway) stick pin in 25 times and invest A$10K in each. Then go to the DOW 40, stick pin in 10 times and invest A$25K in each.  - good day noi




Here's a crazy idea.

Buy quality companies with strong balance sheets and sustainable earnings. Maybe even ones with competitive advantages.

How about one that even has a profit margin on their products of 60+% and is about to benefit from improved corporate spending.

INTC is just one or of course you could stick to your pins. What ever works best for you


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## CecilHills (22 April 2010)

I am a newbie at investing in shares and also, coincidentally online Poker; there are similarities but I have been doing well investing in the tips of my new online poker buddies. Recent tips include;-
OMG   ,DIK   , DON  KEY   , DUM  RVR   ,  GRR     and   LOL
I hope this helps!


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## noirua (24 April 2010)

No doubt we're all-in as far as buying with open arms is concerned??? I've still to finalize a few more purchases next week though the Footsie and Dow 30 continue their bullish tone.
Always limit stock purchases to 30% when buying speculative stocks??? 

Onwards and upwards is the cry, from somewhere, not sure where???


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## Julia (24 April 2010)

Noirua, what exactly is the point of this thread?

It seems to me that if the comments you are making herein were made on a thread for a single stock, you'd have them deleted for pure ramping.

I'm not sure how doing the same thing for the mining sector, especially when you admit to a complete contradiction to your "Buy with Open Arms" suggestion by being still 70% in cash/fixed investments should be any different?


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## Unnamed User (25 April 2010)

Julia i think your sarcasm meter must be broken.


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## Julia (25 April 2010)

Unnamed User said:


> Julia i think your sarcasm meter must be broken.




Ah, you may very well be right.  It did seem out of character for Noirua.
I do have a very bad tendency to take things very literally.
Thanks for waking me up, Unnamed User.


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## cutz (25 April 2010)

I too assumed in post #2 that noirau is being sarcastic but rightly so I was quickly rebuked.

Although deep down I think there's a bear in there.


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## noirua (25 April 2010)

Yes indeed! Sarcasm meter indeed, as i strive for serious inaccuracy, sorry, accuracy.

We have a worldwide sphere of investment and the Aussie is very strong and we might well ask: Will it remain so??? As soon as interest rates at home reach 5% the others, our great and noble friends in the States, China, Europe will all be raising theirs, interest rates that is. No ??? on this.

Money pours in to good old Australia from China, India ... err well you name it, "Get a bit of Aussie" that's the cry". Will they stop at mining, I think not, and it will be, 'grab a chunk of Woolworths', and most else ???

Every Aussie will be loaded, that is, 'those worth their salt'???

The ASX 20, 50, 100, 200, 300 ... look on an inward investment basis to be well behind many other worldwide indexes ???


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## noirua (26 April 2010)

All blue across the pond as the recovery is seen to be locked in. Onward ASX200 to 7,000??? Providing WS goes for tax reform in May as iterated in America, good economy control needs less of the interest rate lever to achieve balance.


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## noirua (28 April 2010)

Is this an opportunity coming up or a poison chalice. UK Footsie falls 150.33 points and Dow Jones closes 213.04 down.  All this due to Greece descending to Junk Bond status and Portugal, next on the rack, having their loan status downgraded.

Parts of Europe, was it the PIIGS, are all looking to have quite serious problems now. Get out of Europe some cry, as Germany and France dither on lending money to Junk-Bond-Greece.
The UK thinks it's not really in Europe and it's, 'one told you so' as the Euro heads for troublesome times.

The UK has elections on May 6th and there are big problems coming up. Usually its between the Conservatives and Labour. But the third party, The Liberal Democrats have moved into second place in the polls.
What's the problem then? Well, their have been boundary changes as the population of the major cities move away and this favours The Labour Party.
The Conservatives (mainly South of England) need a 10% lead over Labour  (mainly North of England) to have a good majority. 
The Liberal Democrats are more evenly spread.

If the Liberal Democrats do well they may get just 80 seats with 28% of the vote.
Labour could get 280 seats with 28% of the vote.
The Conservatives may only get 280 seats with 35% of the vote. 
9% of votes go to Irish, Welsh and Scottish Parties.
Thus the Labour Party could rule with support of the Liberal Democrats having only got 28% of the vote.

The UK with a Labour/LibDem Alliance could see the UK descend into chaos.


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## zzaaxxss3401 (28 April 2010)

noirua said:


> All blue across the pond as the recovery is seen to be locked in. Onward ASX200 to 7,000???




Oh how things (can) change within just 2 days. Bloomberg is predicting a drop of 97 points for the ASX200 today. Onward ASX200 to 4500??? :

My arms aren't unfolding until after May 19:


			
				Reuters said:
			
		

> Greece asked on Friday to trigger billions of euros in emergency loans from a bailout package which could be the *largest multilateral rescue of a country ever attempted.*
> ...
> Greece has covered its funding needs for this month, albeit at a high cost and needs to borrow less than 10 billion euros to cover next month when an 8.5 billion euro government bond comes due...



 - current Greece Recovery Fund balance


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## sammy84 (28 April 2010)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Oh how things (can) change within just 2 days. Bloomberg is predicting a drop of 97 points for the ASX200 today.




What a coincidence, SPI futures are predicting the same drop!


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## yonnie (28 April 2010)

everybody should have bought with open arms last year.

obviously the people with lots of cash dont know what they`re doing and wait and wait until there`s no cloud to be seen at all. 
ASX200 should be around 7000 by then.


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## noirua (29 April 2010)

yonnie said:


> everybody should have bought with open arms last year.
> 
> obviously the people with lots of cash dont know what they`re doing and wait and wait until there`s no cloud to be seen at all.
> ASX200 should be around 7000 by then.



Hi yonnie, No one likes a clever dick  Anyway, no one can ever accuse me of that
Anyway, yesterday I did not believe this Greece dampener story as its been around for a long time. Germany, France and the IMF will have to chuck billions of Euros into the Greek urn, and more-sum. Portugal and Spain will need a chunk as well and no doubt a few more will join the queue. We all know that as the PIIGS problem was flagged up 9 times.
I bought with open arms on Wednesday, you've gotta believe me, and was surprised that 9 of my low bids were taken up. WOW at $26 and UXA at 5c were not. Who cares you might say, well I do for one, as I believe it's 'buy with open arms' - now 28% invested, 62% in cash.

In the end remember, all stocks are risky and some are very high risk. Lower risk by keeping lots of cash, or risk a disaster.


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## RazzaDazzla (29 April 2010)

So the Greek/Euro debt stories that keep hitting the papers are a good opportunity for the 'smart' money to buy when everyone who hasn't seen a 2% decline for a while poo there pants?

Or are the high closes after bad news the opportunity for the smart money to suck everyone in before it continues south?


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## yonnie (29 April 2010)

razza,

for you to make the choice.......what will it be?

remember that the last high of the ASX200 will definitely be taken out, although I dont know when.


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## yonnie (2 May 2010)

if I still had a lot of cash to invest if it were me I would only buy after a significant retrace say to around 4500.

at that time I would buy the shares on my list which dropped the most in value without any apparent reason.

from then on I would buy more @ 4300, again the shares on my wanted list which dropped most in value  

then more @ 4150 and the last @ 4000

we all like a bargain: never buy at full value; always at a discount.

just an idea for the buy and hold brigade

sorry noirua if I sounded rude.


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## nunthewiser (6 May 2010)

noirua said:


> No doubt we're all-in as far as buying with open arms is concerned??? I've still to finalize a few more purchases next week though the Footsie and Dow 30 continue their bullish tone.
> Always limit stock purchases to 30% when buying speculative stocks???
> 
> Onwards and upwards is the cry, from somewhere, not sure where???




And how has this been going for you ?


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 May 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> And how has this been going for you ?



Noirua said to say "aloha".


----------



## So_Cynical (7 May 2010)

So was i the only person here buying today :dunno: doesn't anyone else see value and bargains galore...ROE surely you brought something today?




Anyone?...its like someone died around here!


----------



## roland (7 May 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> So was i the only person here buying today :dunno: doesn't anyone else see value and bargains galore...ROE surely you brought something today?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




OK, I'll bite - I didn't buy anything today, but got some OZL and IFN yesterday - was prepared (and actually placed an order for IFN) to grab some more OZL or IFN today, but they ended up NOT falling to my next buy level.


----------



## So_Cynical (7 May 2010)

roland said:


> OK, I'll bite - I didn't buy anything today, but got some OZL and IFN yesterday - was prepared (and actually placed an order for IFN) to grab some more OZL or IFN today, but they ended up NOT falling to my next buy level.




Ok OZL i can understand ...IFN  what the hell are/were you thinking?


By the way anyone know where the cricket will be streamed tonight?


----------



## noirua (8 May 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> And how has this been going for you ?




Good point. It has left an opportunity to bid very low prices for some stocks and as I've noticed a few others mention, 'I'm very surprised that low bid went through'. Some will dump at any price.

Quite often now I leave a low bid, such as: highest bid 88c lowest offer 90c. I bid 75c soon after the market opens and wait. If nothing happens after 3 hours it could be sleeper offers ie put in offer and went to bed. Mostly though, if it sits there for a few days then an impatient person puts in a low offer and bingo.

I have broken my 70% rule a bit as too many bids were accepted on Wednesday and Thursday. All great fun if it takes you that way like me.

Plenty of losses which were partly offset by Rockhopper Exp oil strike in the Falklands - that was luck as I was depressed about the stock the day before - great fun.


----------



## noirua (3 June 2010)

I've finished buying with open arms and remain bullish about stocks going forward. Have broken my personal rule on cash and now down to 45%. Included some US stocks and a few UK stocks and the rest firmly in Australia - ASX 200 looks cheap, imho, and the lower AUD will help most.

My confidence boils over for the future of Aussie markets. Fly the :aus::aus::aus::aus::aus: yes, lots.


----------



## Logique (3 June 2010)

Hi noirua,
yes it looks and feels much better today. I've been looking at UK and US market indices, they are indeed set up technically for a good showing from here. If the mod's put it on me I'm happy to post. 

Fingers crossed no more announcements out of Europe to blindside us. A World Cup rally would be nice, based on the hubris and enthusiasm from this international celebration of football. 

If we are to have a rally, there are a swag of attractive stocks at prices well off recent highs.


----------



## Unnamed User (3 June 2010)

If the employment figures out of the US tonight are not at least 500K, then it is going to get ugly....

Having that, i think they will beat that easily, here's hoping....


----------



## Unnamed User (3 June 2010)

Unnamed User said:


> If the employment figures out of the US *tonight* are not at least 500K, then it is going to get ugly....
> 
> Having that, i think they will beat that easily, here's hoping....




Sorry, that should have read tomorrow night.


----------



## billv (3 June 2010)

greebly24 said:


> If the China bubble pops, the world's stock markets will drop[/I]




Don't forget that the Chinese gov controls ALL levers. 
How can speculators take on a giant with massive $ reserves and not get hurt?
It will be suicidal for them


----------



## billv (3 June 2010)

*is this the right time to buy or should we wait for the next dip?*



> A small band of hedge funds is now building up a series of sizeable bets on Britain defaulting.
> In the past few weeks, they have placed more than $3 billion worth of bets on that precise outcome in the credit default swap market.
> History – three centuries without default – suggests that they will be proved wrong.
> But these are unprecedented times.
> ...



more here
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...e-gamblers-betting-on-Britain-going-bust.html


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## noirua (6 June 2010)

I don't think Britain will default as their borrowing are long term, interest rates are low, and they can borrow in their own markets. There is also the Olympic Games coming up in 2012 that will help them ride the waves, Britannia and all that.

There's really only Spain to come in the West of Europe with problems and the others are in the East of Europe. There lies a mountain of problems but overall Asia represents more than half of the World these days. So it's more like a large annoying carbuncle that has to go its term before being cut out - of sorts anyway, hope you get my drift.

Australia has a weakening currency and that's great and timely, as commodity prices, except soft commodities - most anyway, drift in price.


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## noirua (7 June 2010)

An annoying thread for many as the ASX200 looks cheap but continues down - the trends not our friend at the moment as foreigners withdraw from the Aussie to the seemingly safe bet of the greenback.
Look around and do your homework on those stocks that gain from currency moves, take great care, but gobble up the cheapies - there are loads around. Not all Aussie stocks of course as the world is your oyster not your lobster.


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## noirua (11 June 2010)

More cheery now as those of us who bought with open arms see plus signs appearing all over now. Hopefully the Aussie will stay around present levels as it was, imho, over bought due to Chinese and other Asian countries pouring in the dough.
The Aussie market, appears to me, is one of the best in the world and inline with Canada.


----------



## So_Cynical (11 June 2010)

noirua said:


> 7th-June-2010 An annoying thread for many as the ASX200 looks cheap but continues down - the trends not our friend at the moment as foreigners withdraw from the Aussie to the seemingly safe bet of etc






noirua said:


> More cheery now as those of us who bought with open arms see plus signs appearing all over now. Hopefully the Aussie will stay around present levels as it was, imho, over bought due to Chinese and other Asian countries pouring in the dough.
> The Aussie market, appears to me, is one of the best in the world and inline with Canada.




So what changed in the 4 days between those posts? i mean really changed?

Nothing


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## noirua (11 June 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> So what changed in the 4 days between those posts? i mean really changed?
> 
> Nothing



That's it really, nothing has changed, the ASX200 remains very cheap indeed, imho. In the words of so many, "that doesn't mean it wont go down further" - on the other hand it gets cheaper still.
Forced sellers, panicky types and generally those who can't take the pain are the sellers; not a bad thing you know as it shakes the weak apples off the tree.
Currency changes are something to watch carefully as I still think the Aussie will move to the range A$1.25 - A$1.35 to the greenback in the nearer term.
Watch commodity prices and the Aussie dollar strength or weakness.
Watch also for any caving in by Rudd & Co over the Henry proposals.


----------



## Logique (13 June 2010)

The last time I got enthusiastic - I was clobbered by the Hungary announcement, but this turned out to be a big exaggeration. So I'm staying invested (although guilty as charged on the panicky thing )  The pressure is building on the Aust govt about the mining super tax, so I'd expect any announcent now should be a good one - from the point of view of miners anyway.



> ...I think the Aussie will move to the range A$1.25 - A$1.35 to the greenback in the nearer term.....noirua



Wow that's a big call, but I'd love to see it happen. The $USD really looks extended doesn't it.


----------



## nulla nulla (13 June 2010)

Unnamed User said:


> If the employment figures out of the US tonight are not at least 500K, then it is going to get ugly....
> 
> Having that, i think they will beat that easily, here's hoping....




That was a good call, 2 days before the result came out. Smaller rise in jobs saw the djia tank 325 points.

[QUOTE...I think the Aussie will move to the range A$1.25 - A$1.35 to the greenback in the nearer term.....noirua....[/QUOTE]

This one makes me think someone is having a lend of us.  With the flight from the Euro to the U.S$ we are gaining against the Euro but have lost ground against the U.S$. Mind you, the lower dollar and current lower priced shares makes our shares more attractive to overseas investors.


----------



## Logique (24 June 2010)

From a General Chat thread but relevant if it's mining stocks you're planning to buy:

I'm listening to PM Gillards acceptance speech. The following are relevant to the *proposed new mining tax*:

- She has committed to the budget being in surplus by 2013 (see note below)

- She re-affirms that the Australian people are entitled to a fairer share of mining profits

- She has said to the mining industry: that the goverment will cancel it's mining tax advertising if the mining industry will cancel it's ads.

- she has said that the government will afterwards negotiate again with the mining industry about the proposed tax

If people will recall, the return to budget surplus by 2013 was on the assumption of a mining tax (RSPT, or "future tax" spin term) in the recent Rudd govt budget. So there's the new message to the miners - the Gillard govt will negotiate, but they firmly intend to have the mining tax, and indeed it is already in the budget!


----------



## Logique (20 July 2010)

The Bears have their own thread. It's called XAO Analysis   Well in that thread they always seem bearish to me anyway. So perhaps this thread can provide some bullish balance.


> http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601057&sid=afhp5gFngGA4
> 
> BlackRock’s Doll Says ‘Double-Dip Recession’ Unlikely (Update2)
> Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A By Shani Raja and Susan Li
> ...


----------



## Struzball (22 July 2010)

Logique said:


> The Bears have their own thread. It's called XAO Analysis   Well in that thread they always seem bearish to me anyway. So perhaps this thread can provide some bullish balance.




Your join date for the forum is April 2007, the way I see it, the market has been in a downtrend since October 2007, probably why they always seem bearish to you


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## Garpal Gumnut (22 July 2010)

Purely on an historical basis there is no guarantee this market will not have further significant losses.

I took this table from the following site.

http://www.amateur-investor.net/The_Stock_Market_Crash_of_1929.htm

You can see that after the 1929 crash it took 4 years for the DOW to recover.


Year  	Dow  	
	Return 		Return
1920 	-32.9% 	
1921 	12.7% 	
1922 	21.7% 	
1923 	-3.3% 	
1924 	26.2% 	
1925 	30.0% 	
1926 	0.3% 	
1927 	28.8% 	
1928 	48.2% 	
1929 	-17.2% 	
1930 	-33.8% 	
1931 	-52.7% 	
1932 	-23.1% 	
1933 	66.7% 	
1934 	4.1% 	
1935 	38.5% 	
1936 	24.8%

Follow the trend. Bottom picking is dangerous and distasteful if engaged in with hard earned money or leverage.

gg


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## So_Cynical (22 July 2010)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Purely on an historical basis there is no guarantee this market will not have further significant losses.
> 
> I took this table from the following site.
> 
> ...




1929 is a apples and oranges comparison....its a totally different market and economy now, everything happens faster now everything is so much more dynamic.IMO


----------



## ggkfc (23 July 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> 1929 is a apples and oranges comparison....its a totally different market and economy now, everything happens faster now everything is so much more dynamic.IMO




its risky waters at the moment aye?


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## wecanallinvest (23 July 2010)

What the market 'does' and what the market 'should do' are two very different things. If we all knew where the market was heading we could make a fortune. I would say this - a volatile market is not a 'buy and hold' market so whatever you decide to do, be ready to act fast. You don't make money trading by watching the market....or lose for that matter


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## So_Cynical (23 July 2010)

ggkfc said:


> its risky waters at the moment aye?




Risk other than entry point and stock selection is something i don't pay much attention too....my investment strategy hasn't changed since mid/late 2008.


----------



## GumbyLearner (23 July 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Risk other than entry point and stock selection is something i don't pay much attention too....my investment strategy hasn't changed since mid/late 2008.




Me too.


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## noirua (31 July 2010)

Buy with open arms! Isn't that risky? Well, it's like this: You have to jump a gap just 3 metres across!  No problem for an able bodied person and only a small chance of falling over. But but BUTT, what if there's to be a drop of 30 metres to the rocks below? "NO THANKS", he shouts. Ahhhhhhh yes, that's what risk is about; if you've researched your stock and are certain then you must jump the gap everyday and prove yourself to yourself, that you're a man my son; WHO SAID THAT?


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## noirua (3 August 2010)

In very serious circumstances here I see a sea of, yes, it's BLUE across that there pond of the Americas and beyond. All up and we get a feeling of warmth and well-being and great pleasure in thinking, 'we have bought with open arms, oh yes.
Re: We have all bought with open arms.


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## noirua (10 August 2010)

Tough indeed for contrarian thinking, but stockmarkets are very low, - considering each sector in its own right, carefully of course - and a good point to buy with open arms. Go back to the peaks in 2000 - 2001 and you'll see the point.


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## Agentm (10 August 2010)

noirua said:


> Tough indeed for contrarian thinking, but stockmarkets are very low, - considering each sector in its own right, carefully of course - and a good point to buy with open arms. Go back to the peaks in 2000 - 2001 and you'll see the point.




gotta love your tongue  in cheek remarks..  its sure as heck the way everyone wants you to think..

enjoying the comedy big time..


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## So_Cynical (17 August 2010)

So is everyone ready for a contrarian rally into black September? Europe hasn't gone broke...there's still growth in the US, China rolling along, the banks are still lending....time for a rally back to 4900 i reckon.


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## noirua (18 August 2010)

Tongue in Cheek Agentm only 4,900 So_Cynical: No no no, we are going for 5,500 in 2010, 7,000 in 2011 and 10,000 in 2012, be sure to sure. Open those arms and start buying at once.
Look at the low point in 2000/2001, add on inflation and 20% for luck and you can see what's to come, absolutely old feller m'lad.


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## Agentm (18 August 2010)

a great interview with kyle bass today on cnbc



"given my outlook on the world, I don't know how I can be long stocks."


i enjoyed the ending line

"how many problems that you have kicked down the road have eventually got better?"


----------



## noirua (18 August 2010)

I do feel those who mock this thread are humgruffians and make my eyes humect.
As we all know, "sell in May and go away" and come back with a month with an 'R' in it; September me thinks. Thus 'buying with open arms?' would be good.
Remember there are other places to invest than Australia as the ASX200 has performed badly, probably due to the strong Aussie. The FTSE100 has so many stocks foreign to the UK that buying with the AUD may be a good consideration, going forward - however ...
Sectors need to be looked at, again me thinks, as those foreigners are buying up Australia.
Good Luck


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## Mr Z (19 August 2010)

Yes... my research indicates that you are correct. We are on the verge of a surge for a number of reasons, not all of them that healthy to be truthful but none the less commodity driven equities should see the benefit soon and for a while.


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## noirua (25 August 2010)

"remain calm and keep the faith", he said, "and remain with open arms and keep your eyes shut less the blood on the streets disables them, and and and [, keep on gobbling up stock], in fact, 'buy with open arms'."


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## kash (25 August 2010)

We are coming to a great opportunity soon. We have a resistant point at 4200. This means a great chance to buy. Even though we are still feeling the effect of GFC, We have not have massive worldwide news on companies collapsing. Based on this i cannot see 3100 being reached. Unless we have any savage new we should been seeing a bottom, then a start back to 5000 again by years end. All imho with fingers crossed.


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## IrishDigger (25 August 2010)

Remain positive and ignore the Yanks.


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## noirua (30 August 2010)

"I had a dream that August 30th is the day the Aussie markets head for the stratosphere", she said. "Closing your arms is very difficult indeed old fellow me lad, no doubt", she espoused further. "Any tips noi?", "Ah yes, but not by name my dear; the company has a buyback in place and is dumping assets for cash, some in pommy land I believe", replied noi. "Well if that's all your going to tell us, whatever next", she exclaimed.


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## Agentm (30 August 2010)

Mullen: National Debt is a Security Threat


you would have thought that america had bigger enemies globally, but the joint chief of staff has spoken..

now that the printing press is running on overtime, come in spinner hey!!


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## noirua (1 September 2010)

"Let's hope you've all bought with arms out wide, if not, I say, BUCK UP YOU LOT", he said loudly whilst downing yet another glass of Shiraz Viognier, a near average wine of acceptibility. But in the light of day, looking round the still darkened room that swirled like last nights wine and through it all he shouted, "BUY WITH OPEN ARMS!, for stocks are very very cheap. You know it make sense, YOU LOT."


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## noirua (2 September 2010)

Last Call!  LAST CALL! If it's not too late. Markets are so very cheap, as explained in many posts here. Seriously folks, I've finished buying, loaded with stock.
Take an international view and 'Buy with open arms?' we're into the first month with an 'r' in it. Hell you might be a might late - good luck my friends.


----------



## Mr Z (2 September 2010)

*What is this?*

Market ramping !!!! 

LOL...

Been a nice ride so far


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (2 September 2010)

*Re: What is this?*



Mr Z said:


> Market ramping !!!!
> 
> LOL...
> 
> Been a nice ride so far




Haha so true - so much market ramping im thinking he holds STW


----------



## noirua (3 September 2010)

Talk in the US of dumping of bonds. Many pay such low interest rates it's hardly worth holding them. Is it true that Trillions of dollars are waiting on the sidelines?
It's early morning, I open the curtains, stretch my arms and have that pleased feeling that I've bought with open arms.
"So it's buy stocks or short bonds", the wise man appears to have said.


----------



## Agentm (3 September 2010)

if your to believe the ISM then go for it..  exports are declining???

in the past the ISM dropped to 47x in the three months after such a decline in the orders/inventory ratio to such a low level as is the case today.

looking at it historically, the signs are pretty grim..

we have experience 17 weeks straight of equity funds outflows.. so its a case of a lot of folk not liking the idea of buying with open arms..  4.3 billion in the last week alone which is an increase of 50% on the week b4..


----------



## Mr Z (3 September 2010)

I am with ya noirua 

But the Fed is still a bond buyer!

Certain stocks, certain markets Agentm...

Bonds turning means an anti dollar play will come to the fore. Which means commodity plays and in the US market OS earners get a guernsey.

There is no real reason for us to follow the US slavishly anymore, we are tied to Asia's fate much more so... our market will work it out sooner or later .

"New world growth plays".... copper is king - Charlie Atiken

& he is right for the near future 

2c
Z


----------



## professor_frink (3 September 2010)

Agentm said:


> we have experience 17 weeks straight of equity funds outflows.. so its a case of a lot of folk not liking the idea of buying with open arms..  4.3 billion in the last week alone which is an increase of 50% on the week b4..




Why do you keep bringing that up agent?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 September 2010)

professor_frink said:


> Why do you keep bringing that up agent?




Because its true, a funnymentalist mate informs me. I don't know like you frink.

A long term chart indicates the xao could go either way.

Its in a trading range, and folk are buying without confirmation that it will break above resistance of 4600.

And then it will have to break above 5000, so it may either continue, fall or trade between 4600 and 5000 if the optimists are correct.

Personally I think, frink, it will tank and you will all be rooned, as its still technically in a downtrend.

Very brave in September

gg


----------



## Mr Z (3 September 2010)

A lot is looking very cheap in the commodities space.

This IS a US mid term election year.

All most everybody is a bear.

Bonds look very toppy.

USD looks very toppy.

US RE sucks...

Where else they gunna go?

Inflation plays spiced with new world growth coming right up.

FWIW this will be the first time that the majority have it right if we crash this 'crash season'.... I am going to be more wary next year FWIW.


----------



## So_Cynical (3 September 2010)

What a stunning day for me  with 3 of my portfolio stocks hitting new post GFC highs, ILU, TRY, HDF and 3 hitting new secondary post GFC highs, PFL, CHN, MDL...by far my biggest single day gain (on paper) ever 

I brought with open arms over the last 3 months and today it all came together at the last minute with 2 of my 4 sell orders getting filled in the last 15 minutes of trading.  all time portfolio high for me today with a total gain of around 4.7%


----------



## noirua (4 September 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> I brought with open arms over the last 3 months and today it all came together at the last minute with 2 of my 4 sell orders getting filled in the last 15 minutes of trading.  all time portfolio high for me today with a total gain of around 4.7%




I've just about finished buying stocks as I came out of US bonds and bought a few shares which are Chinese with an Aussie flavour and quoted on the NYSE. My move against the Aussie$ has proven to have been a poor choice though US stocks of this type just might be the way to have gone recently.

I have that feeling in my waters that more foreign money is pouring back into Aussie markets and the currency high may be tested very shortly.

My arms are nearly closed now as I await the boom to come.


----------



## Agentm (4 September 2010)

really??  why is the ASX responding only to the US??


its really amazing how good it is out there, with the US in a double dip and the ECRI again below -10..  which of the piigs will fly first? is seems they are stress free..lol

all those heavily downgraded, and often multiple downgrades of targets in the US being downgraded repeatedly enough to just allow the figures to come in a smidgen above the last revision and sparking a frenzy on the planet that is blind to the contraction and denies the reality of the downgraded revisions are really evoking..  

gotta love those HAVIDOL pills everyone is on...


lol  keep taking those pills!!!

only way is happiness and UP..


----------



## Mr Z (4 September 2010)

The US don't count like it once did, get used to it


----------



## professor_frink (4 September 2010)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Because its true, a funnymentalist mate informs me. I don't know like you frink.
> 
> A long term chart indicates the xao could go either way.
> 
> ...





Hi Garpal,

I don't doubt that it's true, I'm just not entirely convinced of the usefulness of it. It's why I was asking agent why he keeps mentioning it, he may have access to more info than me here.

 I've only seen data on flows going back to 2007, so it seems to be a bit of stretch to make any kind of assumptions about  it when there only appears to be a small amount of data on it


----------



## professor_frink (4 September 2010)

Agentm said:


> its really amazing how good it is out there, with the US in a double dip and the ECRI again below -10..  which of the piigs will fly first? is seems they are stress free..lol




Agent,

just on the ECRI,

If you are interested, have a look at this commentary on it from cxoadvisory. Might be of some use.

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/economic-indicators/ecris-weekly-leading-index-and-the-stock-market/




> To test whether WLI exhibits any cumulative and exploitable predictive power for stocks, we relate weekly change in WLI (as revised) to the change in the S&P 500 Index from initial release to four weeks later, from initial release to 13 weeks later and from initial release to 26 weeks later. The Pearson correlations for these three relationships are 0.05, 0.09 and 0.08, respectively. These relationships are all small but positive, possibly indicative of some momentum. In contrast, the correlation between the weekly change in WLI and the change in the S&P 500 Index during the four weeks prior to WLI release is 0.37, *again suggesting that WLI lags rather than leads the stock market*.
> 
> Might there be some non-linearity in the WLI-stocks relationship that yields useful prediction of stock returns?
> 
> ...


----------



## noirua (9 September 2010)

You're feeling tentative, feeling afraid, unable to open your arms. Like so many, you will open them as soon as you see all the others do the same. Still plenty of stocks looking extremely cheap on almost any basis, but but but you've started to miss a few!


----------



## Agentm (9 September 2010)

professor_frink said:


> Agent,
> 
> just on the ECRI,
> 
> ...




About ECRI
Overview

In market-oriented economies, cycles in economic growth, employment and inflation are inherently cyclical. Over decades of continuous research covering dozens of economies, ECRI researchers have uncovered reliable sequences of events that occur in the vicinity of turning points in these cycles. Monitoring these durable sequences affords us unique insights into the evolution of each cycle, helping us to predict cyclical turning points



today it indicates a double dip as it still sits below -10

but despite that the SP500 has demonstrated some remarkable leaps and bounds, clearly demonstrating equities are not following the health of the underlying economy, they are on their own manipulated path...

the equity markets dont give you any indication of the health of the economy.. 

this is what albert edwards said so eloquently recently



    "The notion that the equity market predicts anything has always struck me as ludicrous. In the 25 years I have been following the markets it seems clear to me that the equity market reacts to events rather than pre-empting them. We know from the Japanese Ice Age and indeed from the US 1930's experience, that in a post-bubble world the equity market merely follows the economic cycle. So to steal a march on the market, one should follow the leading indicators closely. These are variously pointing either to a hard landing or, at best, a decisive slowdown. In my view we are poised to slide back into another global recession: the data is slowing sharply but, just like Japan in its Ice Age, most still touchingly believe we are soft-landing. But before driving off a cliff to a hard (crash?) landing we might feel reassured when we pass a sign that reads Soft Landing and we can kid ourselves all is well."


*"Equity Investors Are In A Vulcan Death Grip And Are About To Fall Unconscious"*


the erci indicator has demonstrated a recession in all cases in the past, so its considered a very accurate guide.. double dip is the news its spreading..

interestingly we are now at week 18 of straight equity outflows, this last week in sept saw 7.5 billion in outflows.. despite all the brilliant news lol!!









the equity values are quite manipulated on the SP500 imho, and certainly not following traditional paths.. 

back to edwards





"August's rebound in the US manufacturing ISM was an even bigger surprise. *This is a truly nonsensical piece of datum as it was totally at variance with the regional ISMs that come out in the weeks before*. The ISM is made up of leading, coincident and lagging  indicators. The leading indicators - new orders, unfilled orders and vendor deliveries - all fell and point to further severe weakness in the headline measure ahead (see chart above). It was the coincident and lagging indicators such as production, inventories and employment that drove up the headline number. Some of the regional subcomponents (eg Philadelphia Fed workweek) are SCREAMING that recession is imminent (see left hand chart below)."






i am keeping my self in cash, i have an eye on a few select stocks i think show some very short term potential.. but it would be disingenuous for me to say i support the notion "to buy with open arms" atm..

but it would be great to hear how long the supporters of the notion feel they can go on buying with open arms and where they see the future..


----------



## Mr Z (9 September 2010)

The future is Asia... STOP this morbid obsession with the US, their problems are not ours for now!

This is also about massive inflation of the money supply.... cash is trash! They are trashing it! You don't want to be holding anything that they are producing globally with gay abandon. 

Between the 'new world' & monetary inflation, commodities will rise & that will drive our market... it is that simple.

Watch Dr Copper.... if copper dies look out, if not, get long Australia.


----------



## Mr Z (9 September 2010)

'The cult of equity is dead'

Long live equities....


----------



## noirua (9 September 2010)

Mr Z said:


> The future is Asia... STOP this morbid obsession with the US, their problems are not ours for now!
> 
> This is also about massive inflation of the money supply.... cash is trash! They are trashing it! You don't want to be holding anything that they are producing globally with gay abandon.
> 
> ...



Yes indeed!  All looks go for the Tiger economy of Australia. There are other similar economies such as Canada in the mining sector and the conference on miners of Africa points the direction for many. Take care as Griffin Coal, WA shareholders will tell you, but anyway, mining is a high risk sector.
Money is coming back after the recent political debacles.

Like the whale, filter well, and you will grab yourself a lot of minnows. Buy with open mouth maybe. Seriously though folks time is not on your side on this one.


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## robusta (9 September 2010)

noirua said:


> Yes indeed!  All looks go for the Tiger economy of Australia. There are other similar economies such as Canada in the mining sector and the conference on miners of Africa points the direction for many. Take care as Griffin Coal, WA shareholders will tell you, but anyway, mining is a high risk sector.
> Money is coming back after the recent political debacles.
> 
> Like the whale, filter well, and you will grab yourself a lot of minnows. Buy with open mouth maybe. Seriously though folks time is not on your side on this one.




Everyone aboard!!! Look for value and quality companies, buy up on the dips.


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## noirua (13 September 2010)

robusta said:


> Everyone aboard!!! Look for value and quality companies, buy up on the dips.




I get that horrible feeling that 'you lot' are not piling in with open arms and mopping up all these cheapy stocks in Australia - watch out for those that are not of course: "Which ones you ask? Do your own research as we can't molly-coddle you all your life 'DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!'," the wise man shouted to all those transfixed with arms pinned to their sides.


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## yonnie (14 September 2010)

good on ya noirua..........tell them suckers


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## noirua (15 September 2010)

'Up up and away with TWA now ASX200 and all ASX indexes without exception' - all i say is, "Have you bought with open arms as time is running out - stocks heading for the strats and that includes bombed out mining minnows."


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## noirua (21 September 2010)

Today may well still prove cheap and you need only scour the charts of the small and minnow mining stocks, too late in some cases to buy maybe. Kept those arms closed did yee, tut tut.


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## So_Cynical (21 September 2010)

noirua said:


> Today may well still prove cheap and you need only scour the charts of the small and minnow mining stocks, too late in some cases to buy maybe. Kept those arms closed did yee, tut tut.




Alot of financial's are still cheap....and some property stocks...and some infrastructure, alot of stocks still set to yield over 8.5% gross.


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## robusta (21 September 2010)

The only problem I have with the buy with open arms idea is you may as well buy a ETF if you subscribe to this theory. There are over 2000 companies on the ASX why dont you pick the best of the best and try to get them at the cheapest price you can?


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## noirua (27 September 2010)

Boom time rats from now as we who bought with open arms, leave our arms open, yes indeed, just to soak up the applause.


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## Logique (27 September 2010)

On you Noirua, 
you have fought it out well for the bulls. I watched Inside Business on Sun morning, the Aussie analyst at the end was so bullish I was just about gobsmacked, and chased up the transcript this morning. 



> (My bolding).
> http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2010/s3022164.htm
> 
> *Clifford Bennett, the chief economist at Herston Economics*, joins Inside Business to discuss the surging Australian dollar, the gold price, and the expectation that the Reserve Bank will soon increase interest rates again.
> ...


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## TabJockey (27 September 2010)

Clifford Bennet, death or glory. Australia the next Saudi? Pretty intensely bullish stuff coming from a chief economist.


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## noirua (29 September 2010)

TabJockey said:


> Clifford Bennet, death or glory. Australia the next Saudi? Pretty intensely bullish stuff coming from a chief economist.




All serious stuff this, and I would like to slam into touch any accusations that the 'Buy with open arms?' thread put something in his coffee before the interview, it just ain't true.


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## TabJockey (29 September 2010)

noirua said:


> All serious stuff this, and I would like to slam into touch any accusations that the 'Buy with open arms?' thread put something in his coffee before the interview, it just ain't true.




I dont know what your saying, are you saying he speaks the truth? or are you saying its far fetched?

Personally I am bullish on the ASX and the Australian economy in general over the next 10 years, anyone who knows what the term "business cycle" means should be relatively optimistic but I think Clifford projections are aimed a little too high.

The first reason is that he is an economist and works for an economics firm. Not to discredit economists in any way, but they dont work in the guts of the real financial world and are renoun for well meant but bogus predictions. Whats that old joke, Economists have predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions? They always seem to be very bullish or very bearish.

Secondly I dont see allot of good reasons for his conjecture, hes mainly just throwing his oppinion out there, im not sure what hes basing some of those predictions on but if it was 3 years of rock solid research I think he would have said so.

Now saying those things I actually agree with his predictions on interest rates, gold and the dollar. But I dont think those levels that they will hit will hold, especially gold and AUD parity.


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## noirua (29 September 2010)

TabJockey said:


> I dont know what your saying, are you saying he speaks the truth? or are you saying its far fetched?




Not a thread of lies cometh from that great man TabJockey, nay not indeed. I do feel he seeks to steal the thunder of the mighty ASF 'Buy with open arms?' thread - he just needs cutting down to size, that's all.


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## TabJockey (29 September 2010)

Sorry I thought this was a serious thread lol.

Dollar will hit parity and gold will hit 1450. Its not so crazy.


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## noirua (2 October 2010)

"All full up! - All full up!" -, goes the cry as they try to scramble onboard at old low prices, "Don't you wish you got on board the good ship 'Buy with Open Arms?', I know you do. Still don't ye fret about it, nay not - get ye amongst the posts of ASF and all that research, yes, 'side of the great front page'. [should be two ...]"


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## noirua (5 October 2010)

Happy days are on the way again! Good grief, from a great distant across that there pond to home I ask myself, "Why in heavens name aren't those guys buying, buying and buying. Welllllllllllllllllll there's a good reason for that, true Aussies hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, just want their country bought up by Asia, no doubt about it - GOOD GRIEF."


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## skc (5 October 2010)

noirua said:


> Happy days are on the way again! Good grief, from a great distant across that there pond to home I ask myself, "Why in heavens name aren't those guys buying, buying and buying. Welllllllllllllllllll there's a good reason for that, true Aussies hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, just want their country bought up by Asia, no doubt about it - GOOD GRIEF."




Noirua your banter is getting stranger... are you OK? (Saw an ad on TV that says it's OK to ask people that question)

Or may be just humour that I am not getting


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## noirua (6 October 2010)

skc said:


> Noirua your banter is getting stranger... are you OK? (Saw an ad on TV that says it's OK to ask people that question)
> 
> Or may be just humour that I am not getting




If Aussies start buying shares then they'll have a bigger stake in Australia, as quite soon it will be Aussie-China and all the main buildings will fly two flags; some do already.

'OK', it's not what you say it's the way that you say it, I cant quite hear you.

Buy with open arms, it's getting very very late indeed now - the institution will soon pile in ...


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## Agentm (14 October 2010)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/228836-silent-crash-dow-continues-slide-vs-gold

lol


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## noirua (24 October 2010)

I was going to recommend buying ASF with open arms. However, the best I can do is to offer you a chance to take your part in, open arms as well if you like, in making your way over to The Bull:  http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html


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## noirua (7 November 2010)

I truly hope you all followed this most great ASF thread. A new club is to be formed 'MOST WONDROUS OPEN ARMS BUYING FORECAST CLUB'.


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## Struzball (9 November 2010)

noirua said:


> I truly hope you all followed this most great ASF thread. A new club is to be formed 'MOST WONDROUS OPEN ARMS BUYING FORECAST CLUB'.




Congrats noirua, in 100 years time economists will look back at the man that started it all. The man that created the best open arms buying forecasts, triggering the boom that made average joes millionaires, and made millionaires billionaires, leading to the chain of events that solve world banking problems and solving climate change.


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## noirua (9 November 2010)

Struzball said:


> Congrats noirua, in 100 years time economists will look back at the man that started it all. The man that created the best open arms buying forecasts, triggering the boom that made average joes millionaires, and made millionaires billionaires, leading to the chain of events that solve world banking problems and solving climate change.




Recognised at last, I thought it would never come. All I hope now is that I get my Knighthood before we have her most Royal Majesty no longer having her hand on Australia. Maybe they'll make me a Lord or even King noirua of Australia. The dream may pass but the memory of the moment never will.


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## noirua (12 November 2010)

noirua said:


> I was going to recommend buying ASF with open arms. However, the best I can do is to offer you a chance to take your part in, open arms as well if you like, in making your way over to The Bull:  http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html




Yep indeed, voting continues above at The Bull!

Follow this thread as you will certainly reach the top of the tree, no advice given, there are however veils.

Remember, there are quicker and more ways to reach the top of the tree than sitting on an acorn.


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## noirua (16 November 2010)

noirua said:


> I was going to recommend buying ASF with open arms. However, the best I can do is to offer you a chance to take your part in, open arms as well if you like, in making your way over to The Bull:  http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html




Just a wee prompt, be gad and Gomorrah's, yes, thou may head on to The Bull to the voting zone. Lest we forget or even leave it too late.


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## noirua (23 November 2010)

noirua said:


> I was going to recommend buying ASF with open arms. However, the best I can do is to offer you a chance to take your part in, open arms as well if you like, in making your way over to The Bull:  http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html




A definite slippage by ASF by 0.6% no less. We must take care now as this could soon reach a whole 1% --- GOOD GRIEF NO!
To save tears and so much worry, could you please motor on over to THE BULL at the link above. Much gratitude - Thank You!


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## mr. jeff (24 November 2010)

IS this the thread to ask people to convince me that today is a great day to be buying? 

It all looks very bad at the moment, Ireland in trouble, Portugal nearly there, then if Spain goes they all go, and Germany the strong man trying to hold up the whole house of cards. 
Add in the North Koreans shooting at the South Koreans for no apparent reason, the US devaluing their currency, China having inflation problems, not to mention a real estate bubble...

We're all going down the drain and we'll need bread, not gold. After all what will gold do for starving millions? Fix their teeth?

When it's like this, it's buying time! But it could get worse before it gets better.... The Dow is about to break down through 11,000...
ASX XAO at 4647.
HELP!


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## noirua (6 December 2010)

Don't concern yourself Mr jeff as the stock market, especially in America and in fact most domains, is still holding up well and positioning themselves again to climb on up the wall of worry.


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## mr. jeff (10 March 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> IS this the thread to ask people to convince me that today is a great day to be buying?
> 
> It all looks very bad at the moment, Ireland in trouble, Portugal nearly there, then if Spain goes they all go, and Germany the strong man trying to hold up the whole house of cards.
> Add in the North Koreans shooting at the South Koreans for no apparent reason, the US devaluing their currency, China having inflation problems, not to mention a real estate bubble...
> ...





Ha this post is a good thing to re-read. Have a look at the carnage and remember what is happening in the rest of the world - is anything really really serious going to end tomorrow? 

THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO BUY FOR THIS QUARTER.

BUT YOU COULD ALSO JUST BE AVERAGING YOUR LOSSES. good luck!


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## Logique (10 March 2011)

TabJockey said:


> ..Dollar will hit parity and gold will hit 1450. Its not so crazy.



Nice predictions TJ, and on 29 Sept 2010. 

I had a buy order filled today, and quite happy for it to have done so.


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## robusta (10 March 2011)

I bought with open arms in the middle of last year (mining tax, European debt shambles) Have maintained almost full investment since then.


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## mr. jeff (6 June 2011)

Nothing great to add to any stock discussions today except impatience!
I have bought NML and CYL due to the great drill results, may be major development over the next few years in VIC gold. 
Generally not much fun in the market though...thought I would have a look at this thread again - the reverse thinking thread.




Getting close to the time when a post should go out again, saying "now may be a good time to buy with open arms". 2 previous calls have been close (this is coincidence mainly). Not sure this time though!

How long will the range last  ? this time looks different with the US debt and jobs and -ve GDP growth  - but doesn't that mean that it's just about as dire as things can get ? Pull backs getting more severe in percentage terms and the recoveries to new highs remain rapid. Anyone got something to add?

Companies (US particularly)  may start going under and manufacturing may drop out further ..... concerns all around really. 

Gold looks alright currently though at 1547USD -  quite strong.


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## tothemax6 (6 June 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> Getting close to the time when a post should go out again, saying "now may be a good time to buy with open arms". 2 previous calls have been close (this is coincidence mainly). Not sure this time though!



Ah but were there any posts of the 'dump it all now' variety? Its all very good buying on a dip, unless you fail to sell before the next dip .


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## LifeChoices (14 July 2011)

C'mon when is someone going to stick their arms up in the air and declare it. Every day there is bad news - been that way for weeks.

The day has to be near. I've sold almost everything weeks ago and my hands are just itch'n to buy back into this carnage.


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## TabJockey (15 July 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> C'mon when is someone going to stick their arms up in the air and declare it. Every day there is bad news - been that way for weeks.
> 
> The day has to be near. I've sold almost everything weeks ago and my hands are just itch'n to buy back into this carnage.




Wouldn't call this carnage, this is just a range bound market isnt it?


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## noirua (15 July 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> C'mon when is someone going to stick their arms up in the air and declare it. Every day there is bad news - been that way for weeks.
> 
> The day has to be near. I've sold almost everything weeks ago and my hands are just itch'n to buy back into this carnage.




The little bell rang about 2 weeks ago indicating the bottom for the resources sector - rises range from 30% to 70%. The market appears now to be consolidating and it is not yet clear when and which way the next move will be.
The takeover bid for MCC points to a long way to go in the upwards direction. 
Some stocks were left behind in the run up - time now to sort them out.


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## whitefang (15 July 2011)

noirua said:


> The little bell rang about 2 weeks ago indicating the bottom for the resources sector - rises range from 30% to 70%. The market appears now to be consolidating and it is not yet clear when and which way the next move will be.
> The takeover bid for MCC points to a long way to go in the upwards direction.
> Some stocks were left behind in the run up - time now to sort them out.




I have to say I am very cautious here.
XJO is somehow back at the bottom reached in June, but SP500 is middle of the range, so what happens if SP500 tests again the 1250 area....or goes even lower... ( a strong possibility, with the big boys pushing hard for a QE3).

cheers,


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## noirua (20 January 2013)

Are we now at the 'buy with open arms' stage or yet another little bell ringing and it turned out to be ringing in my ears.
Much talk of the iron ore sector revival and near doubling of the iron ore price. So coal from semi-soft coke to hard coke should, in theory, be in increasing demand to fire-up the furnaces. Not only China needs steel for vast new developments and infrastructure, countries like Mongolia and Cameroon have big rail developments planned with excellent business governments in place, especially the former.
Uranium is picking up in price if slowly with two new uranium fired power stations opening in China later this year, and bullish talk from Japan.

Not all systems go but buy with open arms in a very stock picking fashion.

Australian interest rates are out of sink still with America 0.25%, Japan 0.0%, UK 0.5% and Eurozone 0.75%.  So the strong Aussie$ looks set to remain. [Australia 3%, NZ 2.5%, Russia 8.25%, China 6%, Brazil 7.25%, South Korea 2.75%, Hong Kong 0.5%, Taiwan 1.88%, India 8%, Mongolia 13.25%, Cameroon 5.8%, Indonesia 5.75%]


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## Logique (21 January 2013)

I think I'd like to wait and see, until the big players come back from seasonal holidays, and/or a decent pull back towards the base of the channel.


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## noirua (8 April 2018)

noirua said:


> I stayed in cash too long, since December 2009. It looks as if markets may now boom like they never have before - ASX200 is a laggard in the world recovery and may test 10,000 by 2014???
> The mining sector is high risk but pointers show it vastly undervalued, however, your smaller stocks may not be keeping up unless they're coal and iron ore related of late???  Small stocks in the mining and oil sector often boom before a major collapse and may well race away, even uranium exploration minnows???
> China is set to revalue its currency we're told. If so the USA will be happy bunnies. China shares are set to rocket off the map???
> Fill-your-boots me lads and make hay whilst the sun shines???




I must have been on the beer to have posted this 8 years ago.  True I had just made a small fortune on getting cash from the Felix Resources takeover - a 67 bagger since its low in 2003.  Of course 2011 heralded the mining decline including gold stocks that went on to 2015. It took me to the start of 2018 to get the losses back between 2011 and 2015. A lesson there.


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