# Daily Market Predictions



## el_ninj0 (11 April 2005)

Hey everyone, this thread is for those who either want to voice their opinions about the direction of the market for the current day or next day, or those who wish to want to know what other people are thinking about the market for the day, and their reason(s) for thinking what they do.


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## el_ninj0 (11 April 2005)

I think the market was responding to what happend to other countries exchanges on friday. The Oil prices are relitively low compared to recent highs, so I think it will be a positive day tommorow, but I cant be sure yet because the american markets have not yet opened.

Positive go for tommorow I think.


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## clowboy (11 April 2005)

what was up with retail stocks today?


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## el_ninj0 (12 April 2005)

I think i'll have to take back that previous prediction, Market Depth isn't showing good confidence in stocks today.


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## doctorj (12 April 2005)

I reckon the ords will be down 10-20pts today.

Profit warning from Ford overnight is concerning; down from US1.5bill profit to breaking even.  Signalling (again) perhaps a reduction in consumer confidence.  Capital goods are amongst the first to go during an economic down turn.


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## RichKid (12 April 2005)

I saw a short word on the the US trade deficit figures being released today or tomorrow (anything above $59 Billion is supposed to be a surprise). Also General Electric due to report this week. Both will have an impact on the US bourses and hence Australia- especially if it's really bad news.


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## doctorj (15 April 2005)

I'll give it another go today.  30-40 point drop.


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## el_ninj0 (15 April 2005)

doctorj said:
			
		

> I'll give it another go today.  30-40 point drop.




i'll second that dj. Im thinking mabey even further than that. Depending on what the base metal prices open at.


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## el_ninj0 (15 April 2005)

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> i'll second that dj. Im thinking mabey even further than that. Depending on what the base metal prices open at.




XAO	4,020.30	-43.00	-1.0582

In the first 10 minutes. Looking like another great day to be a fisherman...


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## markrmau (16 April 2005)

as i write, dow is down .8% but metals (particularly base) are up. and money is flowing back to aud.

i think we may have  rebound monday


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## el_ninj0 (16 April 2005)

Last updated 09:28 : Sydney Time

Commodities:

 Oil 	Value 	Change 	% Change
  WTI Oil US$/bl 	50.61 	-0.5 	-0.9783
 Precious Metals 	Value 	Change 	% Change
  Silver US$/oz 	6.99 	0 	0
  Platinum US $/oz 	864.6 	2.7 	0.3133
  Gold US$/oz 	424.6 	0 	0
 Base Metals 	Value 	Change 	% Change
  Copper US$/t 	3330 	25 	0.7564
  Aluminium US$/t 	1879 	16 	0.8588
  Nickel US$/t 	15800 	325 	2.1002
  Lead US$/t 	949.5 	-5.5 	-0.5759
  Zinc US$/t 	1251 	23 	1.873
  Tin US$/t 	8175 	150 	1.8692

Market Indices:

Index	Value	Change
All Ordinaries	3993.442	-69.858
Dow Jones	10087.51	-191.24
FTSE-100	4891.6	-53.8
Hang Seng	13638.75	-133.65
NASDAQ	1908.15	-38.56
Nikkei 225	11370.69	-192.48
S & P 500	1142.62	-19.43
SPI Futures	3965	-62

Doesn't look good at all. I think there'll be another huge drop on monday, atleast 50 points.


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## emily (16 April 2005)

not kool at all     what do you reckon is the cause of all these ?


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## el_ninj0 (16 April 2005)

emily said:
			
		

> not kool at all     what do you reckon is the cause of all these ?




Well the friday drop is mostly due to speculation of a down turn I think. Nothing really solid, except reports from IBM and future down graded profit reports from GM and FORD, which will not make the markets a nicer place at all.


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## markrmau (17 April 2005)

markrmau said:
			
		

> i think we may have  rebound monday




Well when I wrote that, the us was only down .8% (20min delayed yahoo data)

However, after the bloodbath that was apparent at the end of the day, I'm not so sure.

I think we will be green overall next week though. There are many bargain hunters around, lurking to feed off the carcuses of all the traders who blew up last week.

Here are a few snippits from AFR:
[Does anyone have a take on the arbitrage selling mentioned below?]

The S&P/ASX200 is now down 5.91per cent and the All Ords down 6.17 per cent since they both registered record highs on March 21.

Some analysts have attributed the breadth of the sell-off to international investors and hedge funds reducing their exposure to Australia's resources-rich market as commodities prices fell following an unexpected rally in the US dollar.

Others have blamed aggressive selling activity from index arbitrage traders, who seek liquidity through selling large stocks that enjoy high trading volumes.


.....


Some commentators have suggested the Australian market will continue to decline if sentiment in the US worsens during its March-quarter profit-reporting season.

IBM, the world's biggest technology company, delivered earnings well below expectations on Wall Street on Thursday night, and futures contracts indicated another losing session in New York on Friday night.

But local fund managers, who have reportedly been involved in very little of the week's selling, continued to welcome the buying opportunities presented by the pull-back on Friday.

Ausbil Dexia associate director of equities John Grace said he believed the market would turn around and climb back up again in the near future.

"It hasn't had a decent pull-back for a couple of years, so a lot of stocks are now coming back to levels where they will find good buying support," Mr Grace said.

"The market has not crashed by any stretch of the imagination. It is only off a few per cent. I don't see any panicking going on out there. Commodity prices are still firm."

BT's Mr Murray agreed. "There are going to be some good opportunities to buy back into the big resources stocks," he said.


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## dutchie (17 April 2005)

With very limited experience and with no statistical evidence I predict:

That like lemmings the Aussie market will react to the DOW's further fall on Friday. The markets will fall 50-60c Monday morning, flatten out over lunch and make a small gain in the afternoon as bargain hunters make money from the panickers.

There must be some stocks out there that are already a bargain buy - Monday may make them even more attractive. Experienced traders only - newbies (like me) stay clear!

Hope this week is better for everyone.


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## chicken (17 April 2005)

Markmaru...I hope you are right but I feel the brokers are going to give it all on monday..that drop in the dow will be the impitus..I predict another $10 billion of the ASX .....but I hope you will be right..I see RED INK.....


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## el_ninj0 (18 April 2005)

chicken said:
			
		

> Markmaru...I hope you are right but I feel the brokers are going to give it all on monday..that drop in the dow will be the impitus..I predict another $10 billion of the ASX .....but I hope you will be right..I see RED INK.....




I agree chicken, I think it'll get close to 100 point off the XAO today.


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## markrmau (18 April 2005)

xjo down 45-55 intraday, rebounding to finish down 20-30.


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## el_ninj0 (18 April 2005)

markrmau said:
			
		

> xjo down 45-55 intraday, rebounding to finish down 20-30.




There is a significant pre Market Depth drop going on at the moment. We are heading for alot more than 50 thats for sure. MBL and RIO already dropped 4-6% each off their last price on friday.

This will be one of the worst days we have had yet I think.


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## el_ninj0 (18 April 2005)

I should probably also mention that:

BHP	17.330	14.440	16.660	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2,197,956

Market Depth showing that it will fall to around 15-15.50 on open.

MBL	44.600	42.000	44.270	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	238,136

and

RIO	44.000	38.000	43.110	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	589,066

CBA and SUN seem to be the only banks holding up ok in the pre open figures.

Time will tell....


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## krisbarry (18 April 2005)

Another day floating in a sea of red


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## emily (18 April 2005)

> posted by  dutchie:  "The markets will fall 50-60c Monday morning, flatten out over lunch and make a small gain in the afternoon as bargain hunters make money from the panickers."



are you a journalist for the herald sun ?  on the business section of the herald sun, " Our market could be down again another 40-50........but bargain hunters are likely to be in force so there could be a recovery in the afternoon" ... same bloke different haircut. 
well done dutchie


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## markrmau (18 April 2005)

I'm sure neither me nor Dutchie are journalists but we both thought the same thing. The rebound was looking good up until about 3pm, then things went down hill. Finish at low bodes ill for tomorrow.


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## markrmau (18 April 2005)

On the other hand there was a slight sustained rebound in xso - and it didn't tank after 3pm like the xjo.  Interesting.


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## dutchie (19 April 2005)

More green today. AORDS up 20-30. Further consolidation on Wed.

But don't bet on it!


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## chicken (19 April 2005)

Dutchy, I feel you got it right today...dow has settled and bargain hunting today...MAY,JUNE...much the same just before TAX...dont want the market to high....and then towards XMAS...slowly UP


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## markrmau (21 April 2005)

oops, black thursday....


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## el_ninj0 (21 April 2005)

markrmau said:
			
		

> oops, black thursday....




Red thursday you mean?

Dow is down 115points. Any one know why?


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## Investor (21 April 2005)

Apparently due to fear of inflation, which would lead to faster and bigger interest rate rises than what has been happening. 

Also, General Motors looking very 'shaky' (the position is actually quite bad and if it worsens, there would be an adverse impact on financial markets due to the size of the GM bonds and market capitalisation). Ford also looking a bit 'sick'. Both suffering due to huge increases in global supply (mainly in China - currently making 2 million cars a year and rising). MG Rover in UK already collapsed.


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## el_ninj0 (21 April 2005)

Investor said:
			
		

> Apparently due to fear of inflation, which would lead to faster and bigger interest rate rises than what has been happening.
> 
> Also, General Motors looking very 'shaky' (the position is actually quite bad and if it worsens, there would be an adverse impact on financial markets due to the size of the GM bonds and market capitalisation). Ford also looking a bit 'sick'. Both suffering due to huge increases in global supply (mainly in China - currently making 2 million cars a year and rising). MG Rover in UK already collapsed.




MG Rover were luxury cars, not like GM and FORD. Wouldn't people realise that this had to happend sooner or later?, GM and FORD could not possibly compeet with china financially as it has a much larger population to seek revenue from.


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## Investor (21 April 2005)

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> MG Rover were luxury cars, not like GM and FORD. Wouldn't people realise that this had to happend sooner or later?, GM and FORD could not possibly compeet with china financially as it has a much larger population to seek revenue from.




Yes, many people do realise this would happen, but do not forget that the losses by investors have to be borne and 'go through the system'. If GM collapse, the amount of money investors would lose is huge. It could create a financial shockwave of some sort. There would also be lots of job losses, which could impact on consumer spending. Now, if both GM and Ford go down??????

Ford company owns some luxury lines (Jaguar, Aston Martin, Volvo, etc.)

GM owns Saab.


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## el_ninj0 (21 April 2005)

Investor said:
			
		

> Yes, many people do realise this would happen, but do not forget that the losses by investors have to be borne and 'go through the system'. If GM collapse, the amount of money investors would lose is huge. It could create a financial shockwave of some sort. There would also be lots of job losses, which could impact on consumer spending. Now, if both GM and Ford go down??????
> 
> Ford company owns some luxury lines (Jaguar, Aston Martin, Volvo, etc.)
> 
> GM owns Saab.




Yep, I realise they would own luxury lines aswell. However, China also has its own vehicle company, as does Japan(of course), the losses sustained by GM and  FORD will be replaced by these other Chinese and Japanese car manufacturers, which makes them more economically powerful. The only problem is that currently the world follows the US markets, where as China is the leading economic power, and should be the one being followed.


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## Investor (21 April 2005)

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> ... the losses sustained by GM and  FORD will be replaced by these other Chinese and Japanese car manufacturers, which makes them more economically powerful. The only problem is that currently the world follows the US markets, where as China is the leading economic power, and should be the one being followed.




The losses I was referring to, are financial losses that the shareholders (total loss of share value - around USD 28 per share) and bond holders (GM has USD 300 billion in issued bonds) will lose; and loss of jobs. These losses would not be 'replaced'. If one hold shares or bonds in GM, or work in GM, the loss of those 'assets' would not be 'replaced'.

I was not talking about loss of production capacity, which of course, is already being replaced.

If (big if) GM and Ford should collapse, there could be lob losses here in Australia as well, could be tens of thousands of job losses. Also would impact on car part suppliers like Pacifica and the glass/windscreen suppliers.


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## el_ninj0 (21 April 2005)

Investor said:
			
		

> These losses would not be 'replaced'. If one hold shares or bonds in GM, or work in GM, the loss of those 'assets' would not be 'replaced'.
> 
> I was not talking about loss of production capacity, which of course, is already being replaced.
> 
> If (big if) GM and Ford should collapse, there could be lob losses here in Australia as well, could be tens of thousands of job losses. Also would impact on car part suppliers like Pacifica and the glass/windscreen suppliers.




Im not saying that their wouldn't be losses, and yes, if GM and Ford were to collapse there would a massive loss to Australian jobs aswell. However, Im sure if GM or Ford were to collapse there would be another major (either Japanese or Chinese) car manufacturer to step in and reep the rewards of lower competition in the market place. And that, in turn would recreate the jobs and replace lost revenue in the hands of the new company, everything evens out in the end.


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## Investor (21 April 2005)

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> ... Im sure if GM or Ford were to collapse there would be another major (either Japanese or Chinese) car manufacturer to step in and reep the rewards of lower competition in the market place. And that, in turn would recreate the jobs and replace lost revenue in the hands of the new company, everything evens out in the end.




Unless, of course, they can export the cars cheaper from China and Japan than they can build them in USA.

GM and Ford are finding their cost structures caused by high labour costs and huge rises in health care costs for the labour force, have made them less competitive.

For the Japanese car makers, Mitsubishi is also facing severe financial problems.

Time will tell what happens.


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## chicken (22 April 2005)

Today...the DOW had its LARGEST rise in the last TWO YEARS 206 points..so we will see a LOT of GREEN....what a ride in the last 8 days...but ALL positive today.....money to be made today


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## el_ninj0 (22 April 2005)

Definetely a good ride ahead of us today. Anyone know why the DOW shot up 200 points today?


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## Investor (22 April 2005)

It is reporting season over in Wall Street. Sentiment can change on a daily basis (and looks like has been changing on a daily basis).

Motorola and United Parcel Service reported better than expected performance.

Alan Greenspan stated "activity appears to be expanding at a reasonably good pace".

The world according to Greenspan is fair weather ahead (I say this in jest  .


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## el_ninj0 (22 April 2005)

Investor said:
			
		

> It is reporting season over in Wall Street. Sentiment can change on a daily basis (and looks like has been changing on a daily basis).
> 
> Motorola and United Parcel Service reported better than expected performance.
> 
> ...




It amazes me that on a day like this, the sellers dont just say "hey, stuff this, i can get more for my shares today." and raise there prices much higher. It seems kind of stupid not to do that in my opinion. But no, they continue to sell at lower prices than the previous days close, it makes no sense, none at all...


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## markrmau (22 April 2005)

Are you getting confused about how pre-open works?

http://www.asx.com.au/investor/education/basics/trading_hours.htm
http://www.asx.com.au/investor/education/basics/open_Close.htm


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## malachii (22 April 2005)

The comment that fired the yanks last night was Greenspan completely discounting the chance of the US economy entering a period of "stagflation".

Malachii


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## malachii (22 April 2005)

Sorry that message above should have read "..Greenspan completely discounting the chance of the US economy entering a period of "stagflation" in the SHORT TERM.  He went onto say that if things continued then stagflation or worse was a possiblity.

Malachii


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## Smurf1976 (23 April 2005)

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Im not saying that their wouldn't be losses, and yes, if GM and Ford were to collapse there would a massive loss to Australian jobs aswell. However, Im sure if GM or Ford were to collapse there would be another major (either Japanese or Chinese) car manufacturer to step in and reep the rewards of lower competition in the market place. And that, in turn would recreate the jobs and replace lost revenue in the hands of the new company, everything evens out in the end.



Do you mean that a Japanese or Chinese car manufacturer would buy the Australian manufacturing plants owned by GM and Ford and physically manufacture their cars in Australia using Australian components etc. as GM and Ford do now? 

Would this be a largely seamless transition which would see, in practice (since it takes a long time to tool up for a new model) the new owners continue production of cars which are effectively identical to Commodore, Falcon etc (but presumably under a different name) at least until production was swapped over to alternative models?.

Or do you mean that we would just import the cars from Japan, China or wherever?

If the Australian manufacturing plants close, even temporarily, then we have a truly massive, highly visible shock to the economy. Due to the visibility of the shock the effects would likely be amplified as even those consumers in no way directly affected would likely become concerned about the economy.

This visibility is very different to, for example, the collapse of Pasminco. With the exception of Tasmania where the "zinc works" (also known as "EZ") is incredibly well known and those other places where it has physical operations most Australians had never even heard of the company. It was just another business gone broke, no big deal to most. 

But EVERYONE has heard of Ford and GM. It can't possibly be good for consumer sentiment and spending. Add that to the direct effects of the loss of GM and / or Ford manufacturing and the already slowing economy, wobbly house prices etc. and it doesn't take too much to end up in a recession. There's a lot of "if" in there but there would seem to be a real risk IMHO.


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## el_ninj0 (23 April 2005)

Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Do you mean that a Japanese or Chinese car manufacturer would buy the Australian manufacturing plants owned by GM and Ford and physically manufacture their cars in Australia using Australian components etc. as GM and Ford do now?
> 
> Would this be a largely seamless transition which would see, in practice (since it takes a long time to tool up for a new model) the new owners continue production of cars which are effectively identical to Commodore, Falcon etc (but presumably under a different name) at least until production was swapped over to alternative models?.
> 
> Or do you mean that we would just import the cars from Japan, China or wherever?




What I was saying was that IF, and I stress IF GM and Ford were to have some kind of financial difficulties which led them to pull out or down grade their operations in Australia, we would see other prominant manufacturers step in to fill the void left by such a huge duo.

Example: If GM and FORD collapsed, we would see either Japanese or Chinese car Manufacturers step in to the market. I doubt that if it was a Chinese company they would start manufacturing here in Australia aswell, it is far more likely that they would take advantage of their cheaper labour forces and just ship the cars/parts over to Australia.

We would see a very large number of unemployed people coming out of this situation, and indeed a large drop in the size of the economy. But what I was reffering to when I say that "everything evens out in the end", means that revenue streams would still be there, not in its entirety, but they would still continue to exist and be snapped up by other large companies just waiting to fill a possible void.


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## el_ninj0 (25 April 2005)

For Tuesday 26th April:

We are seeing a slight come back in other markets from todays trading session(all except australia as it is anzac day). 

I think we'll see a leveling off of the ASX for tuesday possibly even a slight drop because of rising oil prices again(upto 54.16 per barrell).

Resource stocks should be ok due to rising commodities again. It seems as though the market sentiment has picked up, but i dont think we are out of the clear yet.

It will be a shaky next few weeks to come.


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## markrmau (28 April 2005)

I think I see money coming back into the market. A few more down days, lots of volatility and maybe a floor a few percent below here.

Ahh, I can smell the fear oozing from the market participants....


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## chicken (29 April 2005)

looks as if today is another day in the red...the dow spid the dummy again...


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## Aussiejeff (29 April 2005)

Looks like Greenspins fluffy comments have subsequently spun out......

Let's hope the out of control Yank-tank he is driving up that mountain pass hits the safety barriers first.  ;o)

AJ


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## markrmau (29 April 2005)

I guess if the spi futures drop below 3980 or so (possible, but may see resistance if resources recover a little), then I'll be eating a big sh it sandwich. 

Both spi and s&p are making lower lows and lower highs. Pretty awful channel trend down. Maybe I'll even have to turn bearish....


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## chicken (30 April 2005)

Looks as if monday will be for a change, a better day...should see a lot of black ink


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## Aussiejeff (30 April 2005)

Phew! A few days with a black ink quill in hand would be rather nice eh (even if it turns out to be a temporary bounce), now that some of us have topped up our defensives at "value" prices....  ;o)

We should all be rooting for the Yankees!

Happy Monday-itis....

AJ


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## Orpheus (4 May 2005)

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Hey everyone, this thread is for those who either want to voice their opionions about the direction of the market for the current day or next day, or those who wish to want to know what other people are thinking about the market for the day, and their reason(s) for thinking what they do.



I belive market will rise slightly today, as yesterday market was expecting significant fall on overseas markets. Up 15pts


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## markrmau (4 May 2005)

I think the us will be up strongly tonight. It shot up just before close when the fed announced that it had accidentally left of a comment about inflation being under control. oops.


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## Investor (4 May 2005)

The local market is now firmly in sell mode, watching out for every profit downgrade and selling each stock with a profit downgrade, in a fast and furious manner.

Should the profit downgrades continue over the next few weeks, the bear would have arrived.

Margin calls on margin lending, potentially leading to forced selling will add to selling momentum. 

Stop losses used by so many, will also lead to selling pressure.


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## GreatPig (4 May 2005)

Investor said:
			
		

> The local market is now firmly in sell mode



Except for RHC, which I managed to pick up just before the trading halt and announcement of its new purchase.

Now it's shooting up, contrary to most things around it. Bought at $7.29, currently at $8.40. They're even offering me a few more shares for $6.20 if I want them. 

I've been waiting until the last moment before accepting though, just in case they decided to plummet as well. The offer closes in a week though, so I'd better send it in.

And first sign of a significant change in direction, they're gone!

Cheers,
GP


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## Investor (4 May 2005)

Yes. I am also taking the offer at $6.20 a share today.

However, I do not like the high gearing level for the $1.4 billion acquisition and I could be out soon. High gearing does not fit my investment criteria.


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## chicken (5 May 2005)

IF the AUSTRALIANS are not careful...the Aussie $$$ will be as good as the Nigerian currency...it just keeps falling...the KIWI $$$ is getting stronger and stronger I wonder what they are doing right...as far as the market is concerned all the sheep are running one way...where is the induvidulism there is even talk of developers going broke...looks like the KIWIS the way they do business in realestate is the way to go its a much freeer country not so many restrictions as you have here in Australia..even foreingners can buy houses in New zealand...we should see a better day today more black than red...


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## Aussiejeff (5 May 2005)

Well, looks like the US markets are having another good hair day today... the Nasdaq picture looks just as pretty  ;o)

Can the Little Bleating Ozzie market find a new direction - ie NORTH for a change???

Stay tuned folks....

AJ


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## Investor (5 May 2005)

chicken said:
			
		

> ....I wonder what they are doing right....




Highest interest rate in the world.


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## Investor (5 May 2005)

The market continues to fall. Now below 3900.

And we have not had the next profit downgrade announcement yet.

Interesting days ahead.


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## DTM (5 May 2005)

Investor said:
			
		

> Highest interest rate in the world.




And not living in as much debt as we are.


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## Aussiejeff (5 May 2005)

Well, well. My flimsy "Contrary To The DOW Theory" seems to be bearing some fruit!

Maybe I should have included my 'predicted mirror image ASX chart' for today as a 'comparison' ... ;O) 

Happy bottom picking..

AJ


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## Investor (5 May 2005)

It seems to me that some of the stash of cash (around $35 billion) that the fund managers have been sitting on, has just started to be placed in the ASX within the last half hour.

Some support has emerged.

I bought $100,000 in oversold shares (my own calculations - could be wrong) this morning, before the fund managers made their move.

Question now is whether the foreign investors continue to exit??????


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## Porper (5 May 2005)

Investor said:
			
		

> It seems to me that some of the stash of cash (around $35 billion) that the fund managers have been sitting on, has just started to be placed in the ASX within the last half hour.
> 
> Some support has emerged.
> 
> ...




You are lucky Investor,

I thought there would be a big bounce today, so put in a buy order (using half my overall funds) for NOG in the NZX.They held up ok but the market over here crashed 1.5%, as to why, when everything else around seems to have settled down a bit and showing signs of rallying I have no idea.

Let's all hope for another rally on Wall St. overnight.

I am basically using the same logic as yourself, ie.buy the "oversold" stocks when the market seems to be on a up.I am however trading extremely short term, don't trust this market at all.Profit definately to be made though.


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## Porper (5 May 2005)

I was way off topic in my last post so will make up for it now.

I predict for tomorrow  ................................. uncertainty :dunno:


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## el_ninj0 (6 May 2005)

And down we go...
Another bloody day on the market. Im really getting sick of our market following the US.


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## Investor (6 May 2005)

Porper said:
			
		

> ...I predict for tomorrow  ................................. uncertainty :dunno:




Priceless.   

This deserves a standing ovation.


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## krisbarry (6 May 2005)

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Im really getting sick of our market following the US.




LOL, everything the U.S. do, we follow.  

1) OZ market is following the U.S.  
2) OZ T.V. is full of U.S. programs
3) OZ went to war
4) OZ P.M kisses **** of Bush
5) OZ lingo has changed  "like you know, like this is so neat, like wow"

etc etc etc.  I am sure you can add to this list?


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## Investor (6 May 2005)

The market started OK this morning but along came a list of trading halts pending announcements; viz:

1. Big Kev's (no surprise this).
2. Knights Insolvency Administration (can it be??? - an Insolvency Administrator potentially going into administration??? - stay tuned - is this worse than the plumber who has a leaking tap at home???).
3. Independent Practitioner Network (I know nothing - like Manuel from Barcelona).  
4. Didasko (lender demands repayment). Small cap.
5. Sunland Group.
6. City Pacific. 

I do not hold any of these.

Is this some kind of record? Six halts in one morning. Hope there is no more for today.


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## Aussiejeff (6 May 2005)

Ha!

All Ords now soars like a Wedgetail Eagle - up nearly 18 points after 20 point turnaround since mid-morning malaise. Hopefully no poachers roaming nearby..  ;o)

"What's with the negative vibes, Moriarty!"

Have a happy arvo all,

AJ


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## chicken (6 May 2005)

We have a problem tomorrow...watch General MOTORS shares  $260 billion will hit the market tomorrow anyone thought about that...it could be a **** of a day on the dow tomorrow anny thoughts


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## chicken (6 May 2005)

After reraeding what happened in USA...it may not happen...just thought alout sorry about that....one gets jumpy...I am holding as I can wait...usually the Aussie market in June will be all over the place...should see better times after JUNE....what does any one think...???


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## markrmau (6 May 2005)

The junk bond status hit the market while it was open last night - so it has basically been factored in. The market dipped, then recovered. 

However, if this billionaire has an escape clause, and this is found out, then there will be trouble.


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## Investor (6 May 2005)

Well, it turned out to be a reasonable day in the market today.

Have a good weekend everyone.


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## el_ninj0 (7 May 2005)

Investor said:
			
		

> Well, it turned out to be a reasonable day in the market today.
> 
> Have a good weekend everyone.




Anything interesting happend over the weekend so far worth note?, Financially I mean. I only see that the US have stayed fairly even, and that we should expect higher gains over the coming weeks due to stability in the US market. Interesting information about Murdochs stake in Newscorp aswell...


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## DTM (7 May 2005)

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Anything interesting happend over the weekend so far worth note?, Financially I mean. I only see that the US have stayed fairly even, and that we should expect higher gains over the coming weeks due to stability in the US market. Interesting information about Murdochs stake in Newscorp aswell...




 

Personally, I think the American markets going to nose dive again pretty soon.  Maybe in the next week or two.  I would only use short term plays until then.

Just my opinion


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## Investor (7 May 2005)

I think there will be repercussions from the GM and Ford positions. If it gets ugly (i.e. both filing for Chapter 11), it might be the major dislocation that Warren Buffett has been expecting.

Buffett is sitting on USD 43 billion cash holdings. I have read enough about him (from six books) to know never bet against him. His shareholders do not question him for sitting on so much cash (at 3% interest) for so long, because they have confidence in him. They trust his judgement that the US stock market is due for a fall.

If that happens, the whole world will "catch the cold". GM and Ford bonds are around USD 450 billion. If (big if) the shares become worthless and a chunk of the bonds lose money, this is serious money. All the bonds in the world (including government bonds) total USD 30 trillion. Then, there are the job losses. Think about the impact on consumer confidence.

I might outline the extent of the problems in the global car industry in a separate thread, perhaps next week. The collapse of MG Rover was merely the start. There are tens of thousands of new MG Rover cars that have yet to be sold and the question remains as to what will happen to them. 

Picture that scenario and multiply by 100 or 1,000 times (merely an estimate).


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## el_ninj0 (7 May 2005)

Investor said:
			
		

> Picture that scenario and multiply by 100 times (an estimate).




100?, More like 1000 or 10000. Can someone try and find some statistics on what percentage of the worlds cars are made by Ford and GM?, would be really useful in figuring out what possible reprecussions would be if they were to collapse.

Where did you get that information on Buffet from Invester?, Any useful links around that I might be able to do some reading on to find out a bit more information on Buffet and other leading players?


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## Investor (7 May 2005)

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> ....Where did you get that information on Buffet from Investor?,...




I had already posted that information on the thread for "2005: The Bear is Back" on 28/4/05.

The information was also published in the newspapers after Buffett's 7 hours annual general meeting held last week.


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## el_ninj0 (9 May 2005)

Expecting to see some steady rises today, I doubt there will be alot of growth or alot of loss. But you never know in this crazy australian market...


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## TjamesX (9 May 2005)

A good read regarding GM and Ford situation....

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...-makers-to-junk/2005/05/06/1115092685065.html

cheers
TJ


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## chicken (10 May 2005)

Well, I am just reading that Toyota is getting involved with GM and the Billionaire is buying more shares in GM...the story is getting better by the day..maybe that is why we have not seen the fallout...intresting I thought


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## chicken (17 May 2005)

With the dow up should bring a positive  note into the market....not before time.....


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## el_ninj0 (17 May 2005)

chicken said:
			
		

> With the dow up should bring a positive  note into the market....not before time.....




Its like a yoyo, almost up and down everyday. Rediculous. You would think sooner or later the australian investers would be thinking, "hey, mabey we should wait till tommorow to see what happens?".

Follow the DOW and your a bloody idiot...


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## DTM (17 May 2005)

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Its like a yoyo, almost up and down everyday. Rediculous. You would think sooner or later the australian investers would be thinking, "hey, mabey we should wait till tommorow to see what happens?".
> 
> Follow the DOW and your a bloody idiot...




A bit harsh I think.    

I follow the DOW and time my trades to what the DOW does.  There's a lot of 

stocks out there that follow the DOW.


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## chicken (17 May 2005)

DTM said:
			
		

> A bit harsh I think.
> 
> I follow the DOW and time my trades to what the DOW does.  There's a lot of
> 
> stocks out there that follow the DOW.



Whats wrong with this market the dow goes up the AUSSIE GOES DOWN....must be a lot of shorting at present....but like a rubberband it will come back up....when....after the aussie financial year...its all manipulated..as usuall the big boys suit themself....might be better tomorrow...we will see....


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## DTM (17 May 2005)

I see today's fall a continuation of yesterday's fall.  I think it should bounce now.  

Maybe with the fall of the dollar, overseas hedgefunds are taking their profits.


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## Aussiejeff (17 May 2005)

I'll second that theory, DTM...

As observed many times of late, DOW UP = AOX DOWN.

BTW, I wonder how the imminent re-valuing of China's currency against a raft of others will affect our retailers? Many of them import significant amounts of Chinese goods (especially the cut price special companies). If the Chinese currency tends to appreciate against ours (which I believe is the common consensus ATM) many of these retailers could be headed for some serious short term pain IMO - both financially and share price wise....

Any thoughts on that?

Cheers,

AJ


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## Investor (17 May 2005)

My thinking is that the local market is still tentative and will focus on the daily profit downgrades. 

Until the "confession season" is over, we might not have any firm direction. 

However, it is now patently obvious that consumer discretionary stocks will have significant problems. To me, some (the smaller ones) will not survive (but I could be wrong). Time will tell.


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## GreatPig (20 May 2005)

XAO showing a decent lift yesterday, with the overseas markets shown on the NAB site all showing up this morning.

Could be another good day today.

GP


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## Aussiejeff (20 May 2005)

*SHOULD* see the 4000 barrier broken again. Fingers crossed it stays that way for a while at least!

Happy trading if your still participating in "the daily lottery"  ;O), 

AJ


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## GreatPig (20 May 2005)

Hmm... pretty ordinary so far.

GP


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## Aussiejeff (20 May 2005)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Hmm... pretty ordinary so far.
> 
> GP




Depends on whether you like Yo-Yo's!

;O)

AJ


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## allstar (20 May 2005)

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Hey everyone, this thread is for those who either want to voice their opionions about the direction of the market for the current day or next day, or those who wish to want to know what other people are thinking about the market for the day, and their reason(s) for thinking what they do.



gog will make a good run realy sonn


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## DTM (20 May 2005)

The XJO is at 4044 where it opened with 30 minutes of trading left.  If it falls below this, it could mean the end of nice run up we've had recently.  If the XJO keeps dropping like say another 10 points, it could give us nasty bearish hammer formation (with the candlesticks).  This is a very bearish signal especially when its on top of an upwards movment.

I'm also tipping the Dow Jones to drop tonight too so Monday could be one of those free fall days.

 

I could be wrong


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## Joe Blow (20 May 2005)

allstar said:
			
		

> gog will make a good run realy sonn




Hi allstar... welcome to the forums!

In future, please try and include a reason why you believe GOG is going to go for a run, otherwise your post may be deleted. 

Blatant ramping violates the Aussie Stock Forums code of conduct... which you can review here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/help/terms


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## TjamesX (23 May 2005)

Well today was an interesting day... I think it was the first significant upward move the aussie market has made without taking a lead from the US in quite a while. 

Is this a change in market sentiment??


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## ob1kenobi (23 May 2005)

TjamesX said:
			
		

> Well today was an interesting day... I think it was the first significant upward move the aussie market has made without taking a lead from the US in quite a while.
> 
> Is this a change in market sentiment??




I agree with the first part: it was an interesting day for the xao. It certainly was refreshing to see the xao follow its own lead rather than the dow. My suspicion is that today has merely steered things toward a more neutral market. Given that the 52 week range averages to 3800 and that the lowest point today was 3990 and that the average for today is just over 4000, I still anticipate that the xao will hover around the 3900 mark. I suspect that we are starting to see traders buying up ahead of closing dates for dividends (dividend yield play) and / or closing out of positions ahead of the financial year coming to a close. I would like to think that today is reason to take heart and celebrate but I think this is premature (mind you, happy to be wrong if it keeps going up!).

 

---------------
This is merely my opinion and does not constitute financial advice. When considering your financial objectives, please consult a suitably qualified and licenced professional.


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## Investor (24 May 2005)

TjamesX said:
			
		

> ....Is this a change in market sentiment??




With the passing of each trading day, the market will breath a sigh of relief whenever there is no major profit downgrade from any ASX 150 stocks.

The confession season will soon be over and the local market will probably resume its upward climb thereafter, provided there are no external shocks from Wall Street. The linkage to Wall Street cannot be helped. Foreign investors hold a sizeable % of ASX stocks.


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## Investor (25 May 2005)

Bourse revival expected
The Australian
May 11, 2005

IF the budget assumptions are correct, the recent Australian share market fall is just a correction and it will regain forward momentum.

All those in the wealth management industry are in the front line to benefit because superannuation will be made more attractive, but conventional banking growth will be subdued because of continued tough conditions in the housing market during the next year. 

And retailers may not see all the tax cuts go through their cash registers because Treasury believes there could be further falls in home prices that will hold back consumption expenditure as Australians reduce their debts levels. 

In a thinly veiled warning to the Reserve Bank, Treasury says that a prolonged period of falling or flat house prices may rein in consumption expenditure more than expected. 

In other words: "Ian Macfarlane don't put up interest rates." 

But underpinning the share market, Treasury is forecasting an 18 per cent rise in corporate tax revenue led by the resources companies. To be on the safe side, it has assumed a big fall in commodity prices in 2006 and 2007 but emphasises this is not a prediction. 

Indeed, if Treasury's optimistic global scenarios are correct commodities will remain strong until there are big increases in supply. 

The Future Fund sums are mind-blowing. In 2005-06, about $16 billion will be taken out of government coffers and put into a fund with an independent investment team to manage the money like any other retirement fund. And in the following three years another $15 million will be transferred. 

While the fund will invest in the overall share market, a large portion of its money will go to income-earning infrastructure investments and commercial property, because they provide a reliable income and are not as volatile as ordinary shares.

Indeed, when I asked Costello where the future fund money would go, he isolated infrastructure investment and used Macquarie infrastructure funds as an illustration. 

Because of delays, there may be a shortage of good projects and many will take time to produce revenue. 

The early estimates of future fund returns appear to be less than 5 per cent. 

If Telstra is sold, Costello would like to put all the funds received into the future fund, but recognises that this target may be too optimistic. 

Of course, the Government could also transfer, say, 25 per cent of its Telstra stake to the future fund, which would substantially reduce the number Telstra shares being sold to the public and institutions. This would increase the price. 

Champagne began flowing at the AMP, Axa, CBA and Westpac wealth management operations as soon as Costello announced the levy abolition. 

Even NAB CEO John Stewart, who today is announcing the retrenchment of some 2000 people in Australia, may have briefly smiled. 

All wealth management groups have been handed an enormous marketing opportunity. As middle-income people are enticed to be once again serious about superannuation, many will take the self-managed fund option. 

Treasury expects new business investment to rise 6 per cent but it will be dominated by resource projects. 

Increasing commercial office vacancy rates, a slower rate of commencement of new infrastructure projects and increasing prices for steel and cement will restrain growth in non-dwelling construction. 

That means many labour-intensive building suppliers are in for a tough time, which will affect the employment market in some areas. 

*But the biggest danger is abroad. Treasury warns that a danger to continued global prosperity is a "sudden change in sentiment regarding relative risks and reward from holding US dollar assets" which would result in "an abrupt and disruptive adjustment" to exchange rates and interest rates. * 

But, if that does not happen, Treasury expects US growth to hold at 3.5 per cent this year and 2006 (4.4 per cent in 2004) and China to fall from 9.5 per cent last year to 8 per cent in 2006, leading to only a mild downturn in the growth rates of our trading partners – a wonderful outcome and a very soft landing.


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## Aden_1 (25 May 2005)

Is the all ordinarys shooting up in the last day or 2, on the back of the tax cuts announcement?

Ps. Notice the Mcdonalds symbol on the all ords this morning!


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## Investor (25 May 2005)

Soon, there will be the annual end of financial year tax driven selling. Some of the stocks that have fallen in price, could be subjected to further tax loss selling. 

Summary of today's market sentiment (from the newsbreak):

THE stock market closed lower today despite a positive start as cautious investors took profits in late trading.

Despite early strength among big mining stocks on the back of higher base metal prices, the resources sector closed lower. Weakness among most of the main banks also weighed upon the bourse.
"We were lulled into a false sense of security," CMC Group chief dealer Brian Griffin said.

Mr Griffin said the market had had some very positive sessions of late and investors decided late today to "sell into strength" rather than in a falling market.

At the 1605 AEST close, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 10.9 points to 4091.1 while the all ordinaries fell 7.0 points to 4047.3.

On the Sydney Futures Exchange, the June share price index contract was 20 points weaker at 4085 on a volume of 15,480 contracts, according to preliminary calculations.


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## el_ninj0 (26 May 2005)

Oil backup over the 50 mark. Probably going to see a drop today as most other markets did. I dont think it will by too much though. Mabey 10-15 points at most. Resources are looking ok though, so which sector will it affect, no body knows.....


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## Investor (30 May 2005)

Financial markets could get into a state of downward flux when the latest Balance of Payments figures are released tomorrow morning by the ABS.

A CAD of around 7% (yet again) will tempt the foreign investors to sell down.

However, in the next few weeks, tax driven selling (not fundamentals) will cause some fluctuations.

As a partial offset, some of the $19 billion released from the finalisation of takeovers (WMR, Southcorp, Foodland and National Food) will be reinvested into the market (some will get repatriated overseas and some will go into other asset classes). 

Some of the money from the WMR selling; could already be making its way into BHP today and the next few days / couple of weeks.


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## Investor (31 May 2005)

I had expected the markets (ASX and FX) to pull back a bit when the latest BOP figures were released around 11:30 am this morning. Looks like it did pull back, upon release of the sobering set of figures.

Deficit bulges to record
By Nicki Bourlioufas with AAP
31-05-2005 
From: AAP  

AUSTRALIA's seasonally adjusted current account deficit blew out to a record $15.648 billion in the March quarter from an upwardly revised $15.405 billion in the December quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today.

The increase of $689 million in the deficit on goods and services in volume terms (in 2001-2 prices) would make a negative 0.3 percentage point contribution to growth in the March quarter measure of GDP.

As a proportion of GDP, the current account deficit is around a record 7.2 per cent, prompting analysts to warn Australia is in danger of becoming a "Banana Republic".

The dollar plunged more than half a cent to US75.5 from over US76 cents, reacting sharply to the data.

"It looks like the current account deficit as a proportion of GDP will be around 7.2 per cent, slightly higher than the last quarter," said Shane Lee, economist at Citigroup.

"People in the market are thinking it will be a problem servicing the current account deficit as global interest rates are rising," said Mr Lee.

Net debt also soarded to a record $424.7 billion, up from the previous record of $421.4 billion in the December 2004 quarter. Australia's net foreign debt climbed one per cent to $425 billion. 

Net debt and the current account deficit have clocked up successive record levels since the September 2004 quarter.

The balance on goods and service actually fell $22 million to $7.1 billion, but the income deficit rose three per cent to $8.4 billion.

The bureau said the deficit is likely to strip 0.3 percentage points from Australia's economic growth rate, which will be released in figures tomorrow. The bureau said goods exports dropped one per cent or $296 million, but lower goods imports also dropped marginally, down $65 million.

The fall in goods credits was driven by a five per cent drop in rural goods. Rural goods exports actually lifted one per cent, or $163 million. Capital goods imports slipped four per cent, or $409 million, while intermediate and other merchandise goods imports fell one per cent.

This was largely offset by consumption goods imports, which soared five per cent or $575 million.


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## Investor (1 June 2005)

*Can't find value in the market? You're not looking*
By Alan Kohler, The Age
June 1, 2005

A lot of analysts and investors say they can't find any value in the market at the moment. Well, they're not looking hard enough.

After a 13 per cent correction, peppered by some huge maulings, the small cap end looks a cornucopia of value. Likewise many resource stocks - both large and small. Many of the maulings have been deserved, such as Multiplex, but many have been overdone, such as Newcrest. In general, good value is easy to find.

One reason for the bearish sentiment and the overreaction to profit downgrades is that there is a cash drought - the institutional supply of funds has largely dried up. Broker opinion tends to follow the money rather than the other way around. Institutions are withholding cash; therefore there must be no value to be found.

In fact, fund trustees and managers are rebalancing. After a 27 per cent run up between May 17, 2004, and March 21, 2005, they had become, as a group, overweight in equities and most have, or think they have, a duty to stick with standard allocations.

The rebalancing is now almost over. With the amount of cash pouring into super funds, simply by sitting on the money they quickly reduce investment asset percentage weightings in favour of cash.

In addition, trustees and fund managers have been looking for excuses to dump stocks where possible. Many hapless chief executives who have provided such an excuse have been knocked over in the rush. The four big takeovers soon to be concluded and worth a total of $18 billion - WMC Resources, Southcorp, Foodland and National Foods - will complete the process.

*Institutions will soon start moving back into the sharemarket and - lo! - there will be value. Brokers will exclaim that shiny nuggets absolutely litter the landscape - you just have to bend over and pick them up. Fund managers will agree because they want to get their equity mandates, and therefore fee incomes, up. There might even be a buying panic*.

The average market dividend yield is currently 3.9 per cent, which grosses up to just above 5 per cent after franking credits. This is the same as the 10-year bond yield. Many stocks are yielding more than that.

With the 10-year bond rate at 5.1 per cent, the only reason you would pass up a 5.1 per cent effective dividend yield from a company that is reinvesting, say, 30 per cent of its profit (which means it will definitely produce at least some capital growth), is because you are scared.

Scared of what? Falling profits - rising bond yields - America.

The current run of economic data, including yesterday's retail sales, suggest that there could well be some pressure on profits this year, but Eric Betts of Nomura points out that "the vast majority" of companies are likely to hold their dividends. "There could even be an upside surprise," he reckons.

And Australian stocks are being priced as much on dividend yield as earnings at the moment.

Bond yields are historically low, it's true, and the yield curve is inverted (that is, long bond yields are lower than cash rates) which is unusual. But what if the next move in cash rates is down? After yesterday's run of data a few more economists jumped on the "next rate hike is a cut" wagon. Maybe it will be.

And then there's America. Adrian Blundell-Wignell and Alison Tarditi at Citigroup have produced some fascinating research comparing the current position of the US and China with that of the US and Japan during the 1960s and '70s.

Their conclusion is that the key to whether Chinese industrialisation induces a commodity "supercycle" is US productivity. That's because in order for China to keep growing at its present rate through exports, the West (that is, America) has to buy them. For that to happen, US real incomes need to keep rising.

Blundell-Wignell and Tarditi show that a US productivity collapse between 1970 and 1985 basically brought Japan's extraordinary growth to an end.

But in 1970, exchange rates were fixed and the US economy was closed.

Now the thing to watch again, they say, is US productivity, and there is little reason to doubt the Fed's forecast of 2.6 per cent growth in it.

Which means there is no reason to get off the China-US-supercycle theory and run away from good, cheap stocks.

Unit holders of General Property Trust vote on the proposal to internalise management of the trust tomorrow. If it's a close vote, and it only gets up because of Westfield's grubbily acquired vote, then a truckload of excrement is likely to hit the proverbial fan.

As it should. Westfield has been sold three of GPT's best properties at less than market value to secure its vote for the deal. This blatant bribe taints the whole proposal and makes it appear that GPT directors lack confidence that unit holders would vote for it because it's a good deal. That's a pity, because the deal looks fine. It's the tactics that are not.


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## Investor (1 June 2005)

Hmmm ..... I wonder whether Alan Kohler's article above, had some effect on the market today?


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## Aussiejeff (10 June 2005)

AOX *should* open up reasonably today after US markets firmed well overnight on Greenspans latest upbeat forecast..... 

China's share market has made a more positive move over the last 5 days too... 

Fingers x'ed ...   ;o)

Happy trading,

AJ


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## el_ninj0 (13 June 2005)

Any news from around the world of note? Something that may affect the market tommorow mabey?


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## excalibur (14 June 2005)

While the markets wrestle with the slowing economy, a pair of economic reports in the week should ease fears of inflation ”” if the economists' predictions are correct.

On Tuesday, the Labor Department will release May's Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale prices and an indicator of inflation. The PPI is expected to drop 0.2 percent for the month, compared to a 0.6 percent hike in April. "Core" PPI, without volatile food and fuel prices included, was expected to rise 0.2 percent, compared to a 0.3 percent increase in April.

Labor's Consumer Price Index, which measures retail prices, comes out Wednesday. May's CPI was expected to climb just 0.1 percent, compared to a 0.5 percent jump in April. Core CPI was expected to come in at 0.2 percent, which would actually be an increase from April's flat reading.

The predictions point to a moderation in prices, meaning that inflation is likely in check for now. If those figures come in higher than expected, however, the prospect of inflation will likely spook investors and drive stocks lower.

In addition, no fewer than five Federal Reserve governors will be giving speeches around the country this week. With Wall Street giving the Fed such close scrutiny lately, their comments will be closely watched and could move the market if they hint at any changes in interest rate policy.


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## excalibur (15 June 2005)

The dollar hit a 9-month high in the currency markets as remarks by Alan Greenspan regarding the U.S. economy and the interest rates, additionally the ECB, the European Central Bank, may cut rates. The dollar finished yesterday at 1.20 against the Euro, a nine-month high for the dollar which had been as low as 1.32 vs. the euro.

Wednesday will bring the consumer-price index numbers for May. The report in April showed that there was a sharp rise, due mainly to energy and food costs. Additionally this week look for earnings announcements from Circuit City, Best Buy, Bear-Sterns, and Goldman-Sachs.

The U.S. trade deficit expanded to $56.96 billion in April as oil prices continued to surge and consumers continued to spend.


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## el_ninj0 (17 June 2005)

I think we'll see a very strong day today. Even though it is a friday, alot of confidence is back in the market and overseas markets have shown this. Base metals are up fairly significantly, and resources(apparently) are back in the saddle and going for a ride.

Mabey we could break the current high today? Its only got around another 20 points to go.


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## Aussiejeff (9 July 2005)

Well, I'm tired of seeing the 15th June date for this thread (sorry el Ninjo!!) so here's my tip for Monday's AOX move .... UP 30 ticks!

It is great to see how strong the Euro markets have bounced back last night, after the London bombings. I thought the immediate plunge following the tragedy was a bit of knee jerk reaction so to see such market strength return so soon is heartening to say the least...

Good luck to all.

AJ


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## Smurf1976 (9 July 2005)

I follow your thinking there Aussiejeff and have closed my short position and am now on the sidelines. 

HOWEVER, on both an intraday and closing basis the XJO has just made a lower high and now a lower low. So I won't be convinced about any rally until new highs are reached.


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## Aussiejeff (12 July 2005)

Metinks the market will climb another 20 pts or so today.

My strategy is range trading ATM. Plus pick up the odd divvy or two if they present at opportune times. Generally small margins and profits per trade but hopefully a case of "numerous small profits = positive annual outcome"!

We'll see.....  ;o)

Cheers,

AJ


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## DTM (12 July 2005)

Looks like XJO's set to fall.  This price movement is so volatile within a small range that it looks like its going to either shoot up or down.

Personally I think it will go up short term before dropping again big time.


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## GreatPig (12 July 2005)

DTM said:
			
		

> Looks like XJO's set to fall



If you keep saying that enough, you're bound to be right one day 

GP


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## DTM (12 July 2005)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> If you keep saying that enough, you're bound to be right one day
> 
> GP




Sorry, forgot to mention that I'm a short term trader and when I say its going to drop, it means by more than 15 points during the day.  

Have been right most times...


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## DTM (2 August 2005)

Looks like XJO has been consolidating on Long term support (used to be resistance) and we could be heading up again.  This afternoons rise is very strong after bouncing off my LT support of 4364.

Could be time to go long again.    

Not intended as advice.


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## GreatPig (25 August 2005)

Yesterday the XJO closed below my trendline of the last few months, and if the XAO stays down at all today, then it will also close below the trendline.

Are we perhaps in for another drop similar to the March-April one, or worse?

If you look at Mr Guppy's GMMAs, the up-trend appears quite strong, but of course it lags significantly.

Cheers,
GP


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