# CGC - Costa Group Holdings



## System (1 July 2015)

Costa is Australia's largest horticultural company and is the largest fresh produce supplier to the major Australian food retailers, with forecast pro forma revenue of $704.4 million in FY2015.

Costa's operations include approximately 3,000 planted hectares of farmland, 20 hectares of glasshouse facilities and seven mushroom growing facilities across Australia, in addition to its strategic foreign interests.

It is anticipated that CGC will list on the ASX during July 2015.

http://costagroup.com.au


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## Captain Blood (24 July 2015)

*Re: CGC - Costa Group Holdings - was really keen on Costas but now not sure...?*

I posted this question on another forum also because I would like opinions from people other than brokers I have spoken to who are all optimistic.
I have been keen on getting into this, but I am new to investing so don't have an understanding of the financial PE etc...

I tried to get shares from OrdMinnet, JBWere and OBWealth for the originl release, but they were all "oversubscribed".

I figured that Costas have great support from Rural Victoria particularly because growers line up to supply to them due to good payment systems and quality. They are worshipped by most growers and many buyers for the way they stopped mafia control and corruption in Footscray and Sydney markets, and their foray into China sounds very promising on top of currently good business.

A broker suggested to me that they have been using private company taxation reporting methods, and that with greater transparency of public reporting their profits will likely increase by anywhere "up to double" due to different accounting requirements alone. Should I believe this?

Costas originally listed via OrdMinnet/JBWere at $2.25 but they are already $2.18 on just the first day, so now I am gun shy.... is this a bad sign on the first day?


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## So_Cynical (25 July 2015)

*Re: CGC - Costa Group Holdings - was really keen on Costas but now not sure...?*



Captain Blood said:


> Costas originally listed via OrdMinnet/JBWere at $2.25 but they are already $2.18 on just the first day, so now I am gun shy.... is this a bad sign on the first day?




If you like the company - buy it

One day is just one day.


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## So_Cynical (26 August 2015)

$1.92 today - a big saving on the $2.25 float price of 5 weeks ago.


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## Cashflows (26 August 2015)

I remember reading a really good report by alan kohler on the story of the company and the founder Frank Costa in his family business column... though they charge you for access now and I can't quote it.


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## tge oracle (14 September 2015)

The impending supermarket war over fresh Fruit and Veg will be a boon for CGC as they are the major supplier to Coles, Woolies and Aldi in this sector.

Refer to article, below, in today's Australian.

Disc - Opinion only. Invested in CGC. DYOR.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...tal-coburg-store/story-fn91v9q3-1227525323806


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## sinner (14 September 2015)

tge oracle said:


> The impending supermarket war over fresh Fruit and Veg will be a boon for CGC as they are the major supplier to Coles, Woolies and Aldi in this sector.
> 
> Refer to article, below, in today's Australian.
> 
> ...




Hi oracle,

I'm a silent enjoyer of your "food investor" posts in the various threads. The link you posted unfortunately doesn't work for me as it is behind a paywall.

One thought that comes to mind, however, is that of the "milk wars", given that interplay of factors and how the milk suppliers got screwed are you really so certain that Costa will benefit from the supermarket wars?


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## tge oracle (14 September 2015)

sinner said:


> Hi oracle,
> 
> I'm a silent enjoyer of your "food investor" posts in the various threads. The link you posted unfortunately doesn't work for me as it is behind a paywall.
> 
> One thought that comes to mind, however, is that of the "milk wars", given that interplay of factors and how the milk suppliers got screwed are you really so certain that Costa will benefit from the supermarket wars?





Hi Sinner,

Glad to hear you are enjoying the posts, sorry about the lack of access to news articles…..I overlooked the fact that they are behind pay walls. I like to be fully informed when it comes to investing so pay for access to all newspapers and financial journals. I am an avid reader of such articles and find it to be very beneficial in regards to investment decisions.

In regards to CGC , I would normally agree that a supermarket price war could harm Costa, however, the dynamics are considerably different when compared to the milk wars. The milk market is still relatively fragmented in Australia so the supermarkets can apply leverage/competition amongst suppliers. Additionally, the supermarkets were purchasing their own milk off smaller suppliers and rebranding it with their own home brands. This isn’t happening with Fruit and Veg and is unlikely to do so due to supply/storage/packaging constraints etc. Costa is the “elephant in the room” with regards to Fruit and Veg and are the only viable supplier of such quantity and quality as demanded by the major supermarkets. I am of a view that it is the supermarkets that will "take a haircut” to increase sales volumes and Costa will be the ultimate beneficiary by maintaining prices and increasing sales volumes. 


Disc- Opinion only. Invested in CGC. DYOR.


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## tge oracle (14 September 2015)

Sinner, 

Another report you may find interesting , from FNArena, you should be able to access this report without any problems.


http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=46935C6A-935A-3521-74E6C1D70940F5F4


Disc- Opinion only. Invested in CGC. DYOR.


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## tge oracle (18 September 2015)

The recent devastating hailstorms along the Northern NSW coast have destroyed vast areas of blue berry crops near Coffs Harbour. OZ Group Co-Op, a major competitor of Costa, have lost most of their crop for this season according to ABC news reports this evening ( copy attached ).
Costa enjoy significant competitive advantage due to the diversity of growing regions for many of their products. This helps reduce the risk from natural disasters to their crops and helps to guarantee reliable supply.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-18/blueberry-crop-damaged-in-hail-storm/6787154


Disc – Opinion only. Invested in CGC. DYOR.


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## sinner (21 September 2015)

Thanks for the previous thoughts, appreciated.



tge oracle said:


> The recent devastating hailstorms along the Northern NSW coast have destroyed vast areas of blue berry crops near Coffs Harbour. OZ Group Co-Op, a major competitor of Costa, have lost most of their crop for this season according to ABC news reports this evening ( copy attached ).




As a serious blueberry addict, I have been enjoying the seasonal price fall from $7+ per punnet down to as low as $3 per punnet recently and am greatly saddened to hear about the loss of so many delicious berries (although a little surprised to hear they grow 'em up there as I thought it was mostly a VIC/TAS industry).


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## tge oracle (5 October 2015)

I have attached a quote from legendary investor Carl Icahn from an article on the front page of today’s SMH. He is very bearish on the world economy and, in particular, Australia. He does, however, single out agriculture ( presumably also aquaculture ) as a bright spot in Australia’s future. I have not posted the full article but it is worth a read.

Quote: 

“For Australia, the end of the China-led commodities boom does not spell an end to China-led export growth. Agriculture represents a huge opportunity, as do services and education, while China's need for commodities will never be modest.”


For full article follow link:

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/a-glo...h-us-down-the-wrong-path-20151002-gjzuu8.html



Disc – Invested in MGC, AAC, CGC, WBA, TGR, HUO and CSS


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## tge oracle (14 October 2015)

An interesting article from today’s Australian reports on the impact “ El Nino “ will have on agricultural commodities and more importantly commodity prices.
This is as a result of weather related supply shortages. I hadn’t considered the effect of “ El Nino” , however, I consider it to be another event akin to a favourable macro-economic event such as the falling AUD.

To read the full article, follow the link below. 
I have also quoted one of the more relevant sentences in the article for your consideration:

Quote; 

“ Several agricultural prices have rallied off their lows on fears of weather-related supply shortages. Sugar prices have risen 31 per cent over the past three weeks; dairy is up 36 per cent, palm oil has gained 13.1 per cent and wheat is up 6.1 per cent over the same *period.”


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-nino-takes-hold/story-fnay3ubk-1227567903112


Disc – Opinion only. Invested in MGC, CGC, AAC and WBA. DYOR.


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## tge oracle (20 November 2015)

Costa Board and Management delivered a very upbeat performance and outlook yesterday. The presentation was punctuated by news of very strong domestic demand , particularly by the major supermarkets, and increasing export demand which is expected to really take off in Chin, Asia and Europe.
My expectation that the food boom, predicted to happen by many over the past number of years, is just starting to gain a foothold. The lift off in this sector will be explosive when it happens and the current slow and steady gains are only a precursor to the main event.

Disc - Opinion only. Heavily invested in the food sector ( so have a vested interest ). invested in CGC, MGC, WBA, TGR, HUO , CSS and AAC. DYOR.


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## chops_a_must (20 November 2015)

tge oracle said:


> An interesting article from today’s Australian reports on the impact “ El Nino “ will have on agricultural commodities and more importantly commodity prices.
> This is as a result of weather related supply shortages. I hadn’t considered the effect of “ El Nino” , however, I consider it to be another event akin to a favourable macro-economic event such as the falling AUD.




One thing they do have an advantage with is as an early adopter of agricultural technology.

It means that they are somewhat less exposed to risk than traditional growers. Their input costs are likely lower as well.

Corporate agriculture is really the future, and it provides the benefits of greater gene stock etc. etc. Which is why they've been able to expand their berry supplies so readily.

They really are looking at becoming a monopoly in some areas of food supply, so aren't going to be under as much supplier squeeze as other sectors in the consumer staples area.


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## bluchipmike (18 April 2016)

*Costa Group ltd (cgc)*

hi all, does anyone hold a longterm view on this stock.personally think it will be good long term growth stock any thoughts would be appreciated


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## So_Cynical (18 April 2016)

*Re: Costa Group ltd (cgc)*



bluchipmike said:


> hi all, does anyone hold a longterm view on this stock.personally think it will be good long term growth stock any thoughts would be appreciated




Already a thread Mike - im sure someone will come along and clean this up. oh and welcome to the forum.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29992


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## bluchipmike (18 April 2016)

*Re: Costa Group ltd (cgc)*



So_Cynical said:


> Already a thread Mike - im sure someone will come along and clean this up. oh and welcome to the forum.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29992



thankyou sir


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## Value Hunter (4 February 2018)

Costa Group appears to be a good business but its more cyclical then most people think and there are so many factors out of their control that can (and will eventually) go wrong. I would wait until they have a bad year which could be due to any number of factors such as competition from cheap imports flooding the market, crop disease, drought, flooding, decrease in fruit and vegetable prices, export restrictions/bans/delays, etc and the stock gets hammered before buying.


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## Knobby22 (4 February 2018)

I own. The managers are trying to have a year round supply of avocado. I have had the price rise 30% since I bought. I am more the if the price is rising get on board if you like the story. At some point it will reverse but who knows when? The price is likely to  keep rising.


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## greggles (5 June 2018)

CGC is one of those stocks you wish you'd gotten into when it listed. What a great performer.

Currently $7.89 and looking primed to crack the $8 mark. Market cap of $2.5 billion.


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## kid hustlr (10 January 2019)

Whoa tough announcement today, stock currently down 30% below $5.

I had this on my watchlist as I thought the chart was shaping up well. Depending on price action today the show might be over for a long time from my perspective.


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## Miner (10 January 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> Whoa tough announcement today, stock currently down 30% below $5.
> 
> I had this on my watchlist as I thought the chart was shaping up well. Depending on price action today the show might be over for a long time from my perspective.



It is now sliding down further and rather interesting how loosen the SP was based on. Was the market be too optimistic eliminating the cycle factor for a vegetable grower ?
Motley Fool and others heavily recommended this stock .
@greggles  - your comments please ?
Personally do not hold but put a buy order at $4.5 just in case as it did come down to $4.4 at one stage today.


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## bigdog (10 January 2019)

*10/01/2019 9:10:31 AM * *Trading update, including earnings guidance*






818


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## greggles (10 January 2019)

Miner said:


> It is now sliding down further and rather interesting how loosen the SP was based on. Was the market be too optimistic eliminating the cycle factor for a vegetable grower ?
> Motley Fool and others heavily recommended this stock .
> @greggles  - your comments please ?
> Personally do not hold but put a buy order at $4.5 just in case as it did come down to $4.4 at one stage today.




I think today's reaction may have been a tad overdone and may provide an opportunity for those looking to get on board CGC for the long term. The issue appears to be a lack of demand in certain categories rather than something more serious such as issues with production or growth plans.

I think we'll most likely see some consolidation now until the financial results are released in February. Personally, I can't see CGC going below $4.50 and I think it's seriously worth considering at those levels.


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## Miner (10 January 2019)

greggles said:


> I think today's reaction may have been a tad overdone and may provide an opportunity for those looking to get on board CGC for the long term. The issue appears to be a lack of demand in certain categories rather than something more serious such as issues with production or growth plans.
> 
> I think we'll most likely see some consolidation now until the financial results are released in February. Personally, I can't see CGC going below $4.50 and I think it's seriously worth considering at those levels.



Thanks @greggles . I am watching on desktop on the volume and commentaries. 5.4 million shares already transacted by 11.27 AM today compared to only less than 1 million shares transacted previous days.


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## basilio (10 January 2019)

I can't say this surprises me one little bit.. Totally foreseeable IMO.

I chose Costa as one of my stars in the 12 month competition. Yep absolute kiss of death..


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## Miner (10 January 2019)

basilio said:


> I can't say this surprises me one little bit.. Totally foreseeable IMO.
> 
> I chose Costa as one of my stars in the 12 month competition. Yep absolute kiss of death..



Mate
Enjoy the juicy fruit and they are not poisonous so feel free to lick (sorry for my joke at your wound). More seriously, CGC will revive to have a last laugh on people like me who are on the side line and throwing stones to the apple orchard for sure.


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## tinhat (10 January 2019)

basilio said:


> I can't say this surprises me one little bit.. Totally foreseeable IMO.
> 
> I chose Costa as one of my stars in the 12 month competition. Yep absolute kiss of death..




Someone stuck a needle in your strawberry!


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## galumay (10 January 2019)

Cyclical commodity seller, price taker.


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## rcm617 (10 January 2019)

Costa bought up big at the top of the avocado cycle. This year is the first year of a downturn in prices which will probably last another five years as young trees mature. 
Have also noticed berries being heavily discounted regularly in the supermarkets. 
Unfortunately our wages make exports in labour intensive industries uncompetitive.


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## Toyota Lexcen (10 January 2019)

yes buying berries half price


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## just_jay (10 January 2019)

Have been noticing the cheap berries and avos for a few months now. Bought a punnet of backberrries from Woolies for $2.50 or $3 a few days ago. I have never paid that price for blackberries or have a constant supply of blueberries for approx $2.50.. Need to learn to start tying observations in day to day life to the bigger picture.


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## So_Cynical (11 January 2019)

Lack of demand could be cover for over supply, Costa dont give figures for the different segments and that looks like they want to hide something..


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## Miner (11 January 2019)

Folks
Thought to share with you all that I have now sent an email to Harry Debney CEO and MD,  reminding him to follow CGC's values http://costagroup.com.au/Values and advise the market if they should not be panicked.
Let me see if he replies or not. Good CEOs always reply.
Sandeep Biswas of NML, Sam Walsh of Rio (when he was CEO) and few other CEOs have always responded to my queries by email or phone calls. That will be a test for Harry if he walks the talk or not.
Regards


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## basilio (11 January 2019)

Silly isn't it ? Back in December we had the  "needles in the strawberries"  disaster.  It was absolutely clear that strawberry growers and sellers were being crucified.

The market (should have) known that Costa was very big in the berry industry. Hence they had to be hi. But until the official guidance came out it seems few people put two and two together Goes back to the observations about the cheap price of strawberries in  the supermarket. 

On a separate issue.  I wonder if Costa would be exposed to issues of poor payments to oversees farm workers? It is a concern but no one really  wants to focus on it.


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## Miner (11 January 2019)

Miner said:


> Folks
> Thought to share with you all that I have now sent an email to Harry Debney CEO and MD,  reminding him to follow CGC's values http://costagroup.com.au/Values and advise the market if they should not be panicked.
> Let me see if he replies or not. Good CEOs always reply.
> Sandeep Biswas of NML, Sam Walsh of Rio (when he was CEO) and few other CEOs have always responded to my queries by email or phone calls. That will be a test for Harry if he walks the talk or not.
> Regards



Good morning folks
This morning 10 AM Friday 11 Jan, I tried to reach CEO's office. Harry is on leave  returning on Monday. Michael the man designated to take all calls and respond to Shareholders' query today as well as when Harry returns. Obviously the $1.8 Million pay check man can have good sleep when shareholders are losing sleep. For the record, I was not an investor when the market slumped. But put a gamble to buy some last night. 
More interesting Goldsman Sachs has published this BUY recommendation today, upgrading their previous ones with an upgrade stating long term story intact and cyclical . Personally I do not want to put money on Goldman's recommendation alone.
This morning the price has slightly better than last night's closing price with a volume of transaction 1.8 million already ???


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## greggles (11 January 2019)

greggles said:


> Personally, I can't see CGC going below $4.50 and I think it's seriously worth considering at those levels.




It looks like the $4.50 level is holding this morning. I wonder if the worst of the selling is over?


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## tech/a (11 January 2019)

I bought a small parcel yesterday and sold this morning at $4.64
Its not clear that this is accumulation although I suspect it is.
Supply is being met. I will personally keep an eye on it but think long term
this will flop around.
Very large range large volume days see an inside day follow for a quick $
Was disappointing so left the building!


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## Miner (14 January 2019)

Good morning folks
Today early morning CGC picked up a little far low to sooth balm on those got shot with 39%  down but trend is positive. Like many of us, I still think there have been something dodgy things were kept hidden from the market considering only recently they have had a positive market update.
Any way, still waiting to hear back from the company.
Read an article (often it is dodgy too being meant for free issue) which is reproduced.
Also looked into the performance  of few similar stocks on ASX. 
Disclosure - bought a small parcel @$4.6 and holding it like to be dumped at a better opportunity.
I am emotionally inclined  on OLI because it is bloody organic stuff and health junkies (including my son ) and has a great future. DNH yet but watching






Similar stocks on ASX and their performance today 9 AM WST = 12 noon Sydney Time 14 Jan 2019


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## tech/a (15 January 2019)

CGC
Has continued on its way
retracing some of its large fall.
Left to early and didn't re visit.
But all in all following a common reaction to such a large move.
Regardless of the direction of the move.


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## Miner (15 January 2019)

Miner said:


> Good morning folks
> This morning 10 AM Friday 11 Jan, I tried to reach CEO's office. Harry is on leave  returning on Monday. Michael the man designated to take all calls and respond to Shareholders' query today as well as when Harry returns. Obviously the $1.8 Million pay check man can have good sleep when shareholders are losing sleep. For the record, I was not an investor when the market slumped. But put a gamble to buy some last night.
> More interesting Goldsman Sachs has published this BUY recommendation today, upgrading their previous ones with an upgrade stating long term story intact and cyclical . Personally I do not want to put money on Goldman's recommendation alone.
> This morning the price has slightly better than last night's closing price with a volume of transaction 1.8 million already ???
> ...



Hello CGC posters
This was the  response from CGC received yesterday . Notwithstanding the reply is limited to some extent to my expectations, but I* am appreciating *that  Harry did find time to reply within a short time frame. This is an excellent sign to treat your shareholders. My list of hall of fame therefore adds Harry as well    . As promised on my previous postings, sharing the communication with you. BTW, the CGC is slowly rising up but once a stock market darling falls fast, does not bring it back to same position too quickly unless something substantial change happens. On personal ground availing the purchase @$4.6, my small holding  is looking better to warrant a hold and watch .
" *Extract of message from Michael and Harry from CGC EM*T"
Dear xxx ,
thank you for your email.  Below is a reply from *our CEO Harry Debney* to your email.

Yours faithfully

Michael Toby


*Dear  xxx*


*Thank you for your email expressing your thoughts on our trading update and the company’s performance.  Such frank feedback from our shareholders, whether be it negative or positive is always welcome.*

*A business like ours is always subject to short term market conditions and operational issues, many of which are outside our control.  Therefore please be assured that we take our disclosure obligations very seriously and have acted accordingly in informing the market (by way of a trading update released to the ASX on 10th January) of present trading conditions in a timely manner reflective of changing circumstances. *

* As you will appreciate, we are not in a position to comment on the appropriateness of the market’s response to the revised guidance we provided for the period to 30 June 2019. However, I note that, as reiterated in our release to the market yesterday, our guidance for the Calendar Year 2019 remains unchanged from what was advised at our AGM. *

*Given the market’s reaction you are certainly entitled to express your views on how you perceive the company to be performing.  Together with our Executive Team I can assure you we have no intention of resting on our laurels with respect to past performance, or taking our eye off the ball when it comes to growing the business in a responsible and profitable manner.*

*We are all acutely aware that in order for Costa to maintain its market leading status in the Australian fresh produce industry, we must continue to be disciplined and innovative in the way we manage and grow the business.  The fundamentals of our business continue to be strong, but we are also ever vigilant in identifying ways in which we can make the business operate more efficiently through reduced cost and increased productivity.*

* Once again I thank you for your feedback.*

* Best Regards
Harry Debney*

* ==========*


*Michael Toby*
Corporate Affairs Manager







p: *03 8363 9071*
f: *03 8363 9099*
e:
275 Robinsons Rd Ravenhall VIC 3023
Locked Bag 1000, Sunshine, VIC, 3020
www.costagroup.com.au


*From:* Costa Group <info@costagroup.com.au>
*Sent:* Friday, 11 January 2019 12:37 AM
*To:* Costa Info <info@costagroup.com.au>
*Subject:* Detected Possible Impersonation SPAM Contact Form Submission


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## peter2 (30 April 2019)

Since that huge price fall in response to their downgraded guidance, price has stabilised and formed a three month base. Price is looking likely to break out and there is an acceptable RR setup for me here. It's most definitely a reversal and a "fill the gap" opportunity. 

Agricultural companies all experience poor growing conditions at some stage. CGC's hit should be temporary.


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## bigdog (30 May 2019)

Motley Fool Reports
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/05/30/5-things-to-watch-on-the-asx-200-on-thursday-30/

*Costa Group share price on watch after downgrading its profit guidance*




James Mickleboro
Motley Fool 30 May 2019

Costa Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: CGC) share price could come under pressure on Thursday following the release of its annual general meeting presentation which included updated guidance for calendar year 2019."  The *Costa Group Holdings Ltd* (ASX: CGC) share price could come under pressure on Thursday following the release of its annual general meeting presentation which included updated guidance for calendar year 2019.

*What was in the presentation?*
As well as providing its shareholders with a breakdown on the company’s performance and achievements over the last 12 months, management provided an update on its recent trading performance.

According to the release, the trading environment through March and April was generally favourable with an improved outlook for a number of Costa’s categories including tomatoes, avocados, and berries. The prospects for the forthcoming citrus season are also good.

However, the mushroom category has had to contend with lower pricing levels due to extended summer temperatures affecting short term demand and the company has had issues in Morocco which have led to delayed fruit maturity and increasing competitive pressures on pricing.

Furthermore, earlier this month the Driscoll’s grower network started to see high waste in the major raspberry variety from a condition called ‘crumbly fruit’. As a result, Costa has seen low yields and harvest labour inefficiencies which are substantial.

And finally, last week a female fruit fly was found during a routine trapping at the Impi farm at Stuart’s Point.

Unfortunately for Costa, this means authorities are now implementing a 15-kilometre exclusion zone from the Riverland fruit fly free region.

The company is in discussion with the relevant state and national agencies but believes that approximately 17,000 tonnes of its citrus crop may not be packed in its Riverland sheds. If this proves to be the case, the fruit would need to be sent to third party packers in Sunraysia and also cold treated to meet export protocols.

In light of this, management has had to downgrade its calendar year 2019 guidance.

It now expects EBITDA-SL in the range of $140 million to $153 million and NPAT-SL in the range of $57 million to $66 million. This will be an increase of 12% to 22.4% and 0.7% to 16.6%, respectively, compared to the prior corresponding period.

As a comparison, in February management had forecast calendar year 2019 NPAT-SL growth of at least 30%.


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## galumay (30 May 2019)

blah, blah blah...



galumay said:


> Cyclical commodity seller, price taker.




As i said 6 months ago.


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## Value Collector (31 May 2019)

I have been looking at this today, and it seems to me that it might be time to put some of these in the bottom drawer.

I bought a few today at $3.92, will consider buying more if they continue to fall.


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## aus_trader (29 June 2019)

Entered for the July Stock tipping competition as a possible quick recovery stock. Also a possible short-term trade with an acceptable Risk:Reward is shown below:


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## Miner (6 July 2019)

https://www.fool.com.au/2019/07/05/...ement-is-sending-the-costa-share-price-south/
Motley Fool cried foul
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190705/pdf/446dv63qqrhmlj.pdf
This was the announcement on Costa's stepping down. Less than 1% drop in price is probably the decision is liked by the market. CGC was a disappointment recently.DNH any more


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## InsvestoBoy (30 September 2019)

CGC was up 6% today, couldn't figure out why?


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## JTLP (2 October 2019)

Gotta be honest - seeing how cheap avocados, blueberries, strawberry’s etc are atm I can’t help but think they’ll get trashed again.


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## aus_trader (2 October 2019)

Very hard stock to trade IMHO. Even a short-term bounce is hard to achieve and those gap downs along the way are stomach upsetting possibly diarrhea inducing.


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## JTLP (22 October 2019)

JTLP said:


> Gotta be honest - seeing how cheap avocados, blueberries, strawberry’s etc are atm I can’t help but think they’ll get trashed again.




Great call by me! Little bit of market observation and what do you know, trading halt for guidance update. I’m expecting blood.


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## bigdog (23 October 2019)

The Costa Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: CGC) share price won’t be returning to the ASX boards today as planned.

Its trading halt was due to end this morning, but the horticulture company has instead requested a suspension for upwards of five more trading days.

Costa explained that it has requested “a voluntary suspension pending an announcement to the market in respect of its trading outlook, which it is not in a position to make at this time.” It “currently expects that the voluntary suspension would be required for up to 5 trading days.”

Costa certainly is having a year to forget. Due to a range of different factors the company has downgraded its profit guidance numerous times already and looks set to do it again next week.

It all started in January when subdued demand for tomatoes, berries and avocados led to its first guidance downgrade. Instead of low double-digit growth for the 12 months to June 2019, it downgraded guidance to a largely flat result.

Then in May at its AGM, Costa downgraded its calendar year 2019 profit guidance due to a deteriorating operating environment. This included weak mushroom demand, production issues in Morocco, lower raspberry yields, and fruit flies at its citrus operation in Stuart’s Point.

At that point Costa still expected its calendar year earnings to be higher year on year, but just not as much as previously forecast.

However, in August the company released its half year results and revealed an 8.4% decline in EBITDA-SL. This led management to warn that “trading and forecasting remains challenging with potential further downside risk.”

Given the time that Costa is taking to release this latest update, it seems inevitable that another downgrade is coming. I suspect it could also amend its longer term guidance.

If its earnings guidance is downgraded, it could put the company in danger of breaching its debt covenants.

In light of this, there is speculation that it may launch a capital raising to clear some of its debt. However, given its poor performance this year, this would likely be at a material discount and highly dilutive.

389


----------



## Knobby22 (23 October 2019)

Wow.
Thanks for that post.
It is quite incredible how much trouble they appear to be in when not long ago they were going well.


----------



## aus_trader (23 October 2019)

JTLP said:


> Great call by me! Little bit of market observation and what do you know, trading halt for guidance update. I’m expecting blood.




Looks like you were right on the money on this one JTLP.



Knobby22 said:


> Wow.
> Thanks for that post.
> It is quite incredible how much trouble they appear to be in when not long ago they were going well.




Yeah, I remember it was  a market darling in late 17' and well into 18' with all the usual broker and consensus support for higher prices. I also got in and out of the stock once, and glad to have not held right through the downgrades this year.


----------



## peter2 (28 October 2019)

Market update (drought) and equity raising (1 for 4 at $2.20) details released after close today.


----------



## sptrawler (29 October 2019)

That is a big discount, to recent trading price, doesn't inspire confidence.IMO


----------



## JTLP (29 October 2019)

$2.20 is quite literally, giving the farm away. Bloody hell that’s a steep discount. And highly dilutive.


----------



## rcm617 (29 October 2019)

Most of the produce CGC are in have high labour input costs, so they are largely limited to the Australian market. To then rapidly increase production in a limited market seems somewhat self defeating.
Great for the consumer to get cheap berries, avocadoes and mushrooms but not likely to be profitable for CGC in the near future.


----------



## bigdog (30 October 2019)

Expect the worst when Costa trades again this morning

New shares offered at $2.30


----------



## bigdog (8 November 2019)

ASX announcement yesterday
7/11/2019 3:40:55 PM 2 
	

	
	
		
		

		
			








 Riverland weather event - preliminary impact assessment

The Age reports today
*Costa flags hail storm hit as retail raising rolls on*

Under pressure fresh food producer Costa Group has suffered another blow, with some of its citrus farms in South Australia being hit by a hail storm on Tuesday.

In a statement to the ASX shortly before the market closed on Thursday, Costa said that the storm could have a $3 million to $4 million impact on its net profit in calendar year 2020.

But the company, which is in the process of raising money from retail shareholders and recently raised $87 million from institutional investors, stressed that this estimate was based only on a preliminary assessment.

It also said it was possible that the storm would have no ultimate financial impact and that its overall portfolio could "counterbalance" any potential adverse impact.

"However, as the recently announced pro-rata entitlement offer is currently in progress, we believe that more fulsome disclosure of indicative information is appropriate at this stage," Costa said.

The company has not changed its 2020 forecast of a net profit of about $56.6 million.

Costa said there would be no impact on its nearly completed 2019 citrus harvest and no impact in 2021 was expected.

However, it said the storm could have "some impact on the quality of some of the crops which, if it eventuates, may have an impact on pricing in calendar year 2020".

Costa said a natural part of citrus growing included the process of "fruitlets" (which form the fruit), falling off the trees in early summer. The company expects most of the "fruitlets" that fall to be those damaged by hail, with a larger proportion of the undamaged fruit remaining on the trees.

In late October, Costa announced a $176 million capital raise to strengthen its balance sheet as it battled drought and other challenges.

Thursday Nov 7, Shares in Costa closed up 1.5 per cent at $2.79.


----------



## Trav. (3 December 2020)

CGC has had a good recovery over the year having seen a low of $2.32 to closing close to the high of $4.16.

Extract from their half year results






Chart looking good and hopefully has another run at the high of $4.16. Holding @ $3.91


----------



## Trav. (18 December 2020)

I am still holding but running out of patience with CGC. It has had a couple of good days since my buy and hit a high of $4.13 but closed today $4.01. 

Today's announcement below FYI


----------



## peter2 (29 May 2021)

What we should do with *CGC*, is see if there's anything to learn from this recent price dump. 





	

		
			
		

		
	
 Look good to me.

Market thought differently.


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## peter2 (29 May 2021)

I'm not going to comment on the business fundamentals. I know @galumay  may as he's posted plenty of warnings in the past about *CGC*. 

I'm always vary of trading agricultural companies because they're at the mercy of the weather. 
Remember that cannabis company in the US that caught frostbite and is no longer listed? 

Being a chart based trader I know that *CGC* has a checkered price chart history. Back in late 2018 and all through 2019 there were multiple gaps down after poor news. When I see three that's it for me. There were at least five on this chart during that period. FIVE!


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## systematic (29 May 2021)

peter2 said:


> What we should do with *CGC*, is see if there's anything to learn from this recent price dump.
> 
> View attachment 125077
> 
> ...



I assume that it’s the CY21 comments that the market got upset about; the market maybe wanted better news about domestic performance? Possibly also factoring in the dollar not being so positive for the international exports?

Decent size drop!


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## peter2 (29 May 2021)

According to an AFR article the guidance was only a little better than last year, but also they're seeing impacts from labour shortages (no fruit pickers in Aust), Covid lockdowns in other countries, fruit fly in SA, high AUD. . .


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## Knobby22 (29 May 2021)

....mouse plagues.


----------



## Miner (29 May 2021)

some collection from investment magazines on CGC. Trading 51 pc below the expectations on the fair value determined by simply wall street.
From the insider trading, it appears Lazard, Perpetual has been just working as a trader and one can question what is their value-based analysis.
Same day Lazard sold out to take profit and then bought the same day at a lower price (19 May).
If I follow their trades and make meaning out of them then I will win the lotto earlier.
In the earlier days, I was fascinated by CGC projection but now disillusioned and join @peter2  and @systematic 's comments.
Not sure if the mouse plague was a joke or real. 
Passing out of Frank Costa would impact the company's direction significantly.


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02378716-3KQ6RSRP89BLDJGA3QQ6PR3TML/pdf?access_token=0007DDM5VInpqZ9GLyV42KT4DxUR
		



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02377035-01IJTE9UC85GO24UFHSAEFI8JA/pdf?access_token=0007DDM5VInpqZ9GLyV42KT4DxUR
		

DNH


----------



## aus_trader (29 May 2021)

Very good analysis guys, it was initially hard to make any sense of the price drop but I guess there are some factors that could impact it's bottom line in the future.

If it declined slowly over time taking those factors into play it would have been more pleasant, but the price leading up to the nasty fall was a nice uptrend so I think a lot of traders/investors got caught/trapped


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## galumay (29 May 2021)

peter2 said:


> I'm not going to comment on the business fundamentals. I know @galumay may as he's posted plenty of warnings in the past about *CGC*.
> 
> I'm always vary of trading agricultural companies because they're at the mercy of the weather.




They actually surprised me with the turnaround they achieved, still carrying a lot of debt, but FCF was strong, my back of the envelope range of value is between $2 & $2.50. 

Strong agree with your second point, they are also price takers and always lumpy returns because of both those factors plus huge swings in supply side.

Agricultural commodity businesses are just too hard for my liking, not something I want to own.


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## Miner (29 May 2021)

galumay said:


> They actually surprised me with the turnaround they achieved, still carrying a lot of debt, but FCF was strong, my back of the envelope range of value is between $2 & $2.50.
> 
> Strong agree with your second point, they are also price takers and always lumpy returns because of both those factors plus huge swings in supply side.
> 
> Agricultural commodity businesses are just too hard for my liking, not something I want to own.



Avocado price has been a great money earner and looking  at the price in Woolie - halved


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## galumay (29 May 2021)

Value is about 1 avo at my woolies! 

Maybe its like A2M, value is a function of product! A2M milk is $2.50 for 2l at our woolies which is about what I reckon its worth too!


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## aus_trader (29 May 2021)

galumay said:


> Value is about 1 avo at my woolies!
> 
> Maybe its like A2M, value is a function of product! A2M milk is $2.50 for 2l at our woolies which is about what I reckon its worth too!



HI @galumay, I am also a learner and probably will always be even if I've been around the block for a while...

Any comments on your thinking behind the valuation, even if it's just eye-balling ball-park estimates ?

I am trying to see if valuation can help me with picking dividend paying stocks and getting out early when valuations go sour or avoid risky ones in the first place.


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## Miner (29 May 2021)

galumay said:


> Value is about 1 avo at my woolies!
> 
> Maybe its like A2M, value is a function of product! A2M milk is $2.50 for 2l at our woolies which is about what I reckon its worth too!



2 litres A2 is for $2.5? Only last week, it was $5.3 or so for 2 litres. That's really good for buyers (but how many bottles can you buy and store but definitely bad news for holders. DNH


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## dyna (29 May 2021)

Way off topic, but if you divide a 3 litre bottle into one Litre bottles (completely full, no air gap ) and put them in the coldest part of the fridge they can last for up to 6 weeks.


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## systematic (29 May 2021)

dyna said:


> Way off topic, but if you divide a 3 litre bottle into one Litre bottles (completely full, no air gap ) and put them in the coldest part of the fridge they can last for up to 6 weeks.



Totally on topic, you value investor, you!


----------



## Miner (29 May 2021)

dyna said:


> Way off topic, but if you divide a 3 litre bottle into one Litre bottles (completely full, no air gap ) and put them in the coldest part of the fridge they can last for up to 6 weeks.



Total in agreement. So I keep the one-litre bottles which unfortunately mean, paying $3.5 for a one-litre bottle first, and buy three of them, then to get 3 litres A2 bottle @$7.5 (comes out @$2.5 per litres),
https://www.woolworths.com.au/shop/productdetails/797407/a2-full-cream-milk
add my labour to clean the bottles. When I spend the time on calculation, I am sure my lovely wife (just celebrated the 35th anniversary  ) would have dumped the empty 1 litres bottles in recycle bin and raised an eyebrow not to be able to store 3 litres bottle on the side shelf of the fridge due to lack of space.
Ha Ha.
Lets get into topic - VALUE INVESTOR  and Costa Group shares


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## galumay (29 May 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Any comments on your thinking behind the valuation, even if it's just eye-balling ball-park estimates ?



 Well aside from multiples of avocados or 2l milk bottles, it gets a little more complex! 

My valuations are very conservative, the way I think about valuation is not how much could the business be worth, rather my idea of valuation is how little might it be worth in its current state. Thats because my first thought is preservation of capital, if I get pretty comfortable that I am unlikely to lose capital (ex a black swan event), then I can start to develop some conviction.

So I do a very conservative DCF in a spreadsheet I developed, often I am reverse engineering it and seeing what the current price indicates about future cash flows. I have very low growth assumptions and high discount rate. I also have a conviction multiple depending on the stage of the business. I try to value like I was in a position to buy the whole business, i also have a spreadsheet to work out reinvestment rates and ROIIC, FCF yield and record gross & net margins. All those things will help inform my % of conviction. 

Before all of that I make sure I understand what the business does, and that I understand it well enough to explain to my wife or son in one sentence. Second question I ask myself is "why will this business still be around in 10 years?". 

So with an example like $CGC, my range of intrinsic value is only $2-$2.50 because I assume very low growth, I have a discount rate of 8% because its not a sector I like and I think black swan events are probable, my conviction is only 75% because of the debt and other metrics.

That doesn't mean its not worth or going to be worth more than that in the future, hopefully it means if I can buy it at that sort of price there is not a lot of downside.

I still wouldnt buy $CGC though, I already hold much better businesses, I would just increase my holdings in something I already own, eg yesterday I added a fair bit to my @LBL position which is now my biggest holding.


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## Miner (29 May 2021)

Excellent re-engineering analysis and so simple that even I could understand.
good one @galumay


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## Dona Ferentes (23 June 2021)

Today, Costa has entered into binding agreements (subject to the satisfaction of customary conditions) with a group of companies (2PH or Pressler entities) to acquire the business and assets of _*2PH Farms *_Pty Ltd and its related entities, a Central Queensland based citrus grower for an upfront consideration of approximately $200 million in cash.

Costa will pay an additional $31 million in July 2023 for the purchase of the *Conaghans *property, where a new citrus crop is currently being planted by 2PH, subject to certain conditions.



> _total upfront funding requirement is approximately $219 million (including stamp duty and transaction costs) and is to be funded with the proceeds of a f*ully underwritten pro rata accelerated renounceable entitlement offer *with retail rights trading to raise $190 mil_


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## finicky (23 June 2021)

I worked as a mandarin picker on 2PH, enormous place, was shut down for an extended period because of some blight. The management were extremely 'picky' about how you cut the fruit stems because it was catering to the fussy Japanese market where the customers bought like one fruit at a time and would reject the slightest blemish. Horrible hateful place. Uncertainties of production and markete would not make me think of CGC as a more attractive buy after this but don't really know. That's one family that owned 2PH so it has paid off if they're still owners.


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## Miner (23 June 2021)

finicky said:


> I worked as a mandarin picker on 2PH, enormous place, was shut down for an extended period because of some blight. The management were extremely 'picky' about how you cut the fruit stems because it was catering to the fussy Japanese market where the customers bought like one fruit at a time and would reject the slightest blemish. Horrible hateful place. Uncertainties of production and markete would not make me think of CGC as a more attractive buy after this but don't really know. That's one family that owned 2PH so it has paid off if they're still owners.



Could Costa transform the Mandarins into Lemon with their Midas touches


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## qldfrog (24 June 2021)

Miner said:


> Could Costa transform the Mandarins into Lemon with their Midas touches



Or is it just a dressed up lemon.


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## Miner (25 June 2021)

some details of the CR -
Tomorrow 25 June will tell the market how the financial institutions accepted the rights offer at $3.


			http://newsfile.refinitiv.com/getnewsfile/v1/story?guid=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20210622:nASX6RgTY6
		

The rights are not necessarily for all shareholders as the term has been used 'certain shareholders'.
80 pc of citrus (meaning lemon  and mandarin) price is yet to be determined and about 11 pages of key risk statement and then 4 pages of international restriction. I felt sleepy after reading the first page.
Monday 28 June the cat will come out of the bag.
With the volume of CR, I do not see market will rejoice the issue price and will show its teeth to CGC.


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## Miner (25 June 2021)

In view of $220 M float to buy citrus (English is a funny language to read Citrus word) deal will help break horticultural giant into Chinese market. Though not a color blind, I am struggling to see the color of rounded citrus fruits as golden and justify my shopping trolley at Shanghai to buy them. 
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-06-25/2ph-farms-sells-for-over-220-million/100242176


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## aus_trader (25 June 2021)

Yes, likely to drop the share price as the issue price is well below what it was trading at. Glad to be out, even though I sold after the huge drop on 27 May.


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## Smurf1976 (31 December 2021)

One of my picks for the 2022 tipping competition.

It's not a stock I know too much about but my reasoning comes down to an overall inflationary environment and this company seemingly being large enough to have some pricing power for non-discretionary products.

It's not a stock I'm well informed about however so don't take my comments as serious analysis - I'm not holding with real money.


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## JohnDe (25 May 2022)

> "...2021 financial year, Costa  delivered on its stated guidance with a $64 million underlying Net Profit After Tax (before fair value movements in biological assets and material items – NPAT-S), a 16.2% increase on  CY20.
> 
> The Board declared a fully franked final dividend of 5.0 cents per share for the second half  of CY21, bringing the total dividend payment for CY21 to 9.0 cents per share, fully franked.
> 
> ...


----------



## Dona Ferentes (11 July 2022)

peter2 said:


> What we should do with *CGC*, is see if there's anything to learn from this recent price dump?



.._.. that there may be another price dump_?

 Now in a Trading Halt, but only after dropping to $2.53, or down 12%, this morning.

Must be poorly telegraphed bad news, but on which of many fronts?

higher input costs
recent flooding, unseasonal rain and thus crop damage
inability to secure a workforce, especially in transient/ harvest capacities
inability to pass costs through to consumer
supply line disruptions
all of above


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## JohnDe (11 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> .._.. that there may be another price dump_?
> 
> Now in a Trading Halt, but only after dropping to $2.53, or down 12%, this morning.
> 
> ...




*Costa pauses after earnings warning*​​_Shares in agribusiness Costa Group Holdings are in a trading pause after falling more than 12 per cent lower to $2.53 just before noon._​​_The fall came after an analyst warning about a potential earnings impact from lower citrus supply and the entrenched avocado oversupply situation._​​_In a note, Credit Suisse analyst Larry Gandler cut Costa to neutral, from outperform, and slashed its target price to $2.80 (from $3.70) because while demand is strong for agribusiness Costa's produce, "supply and logistics remain a challenge"._​_"It appears the 2022 citrus season is not matching our previous expectations._​​_"The 2022 citrus supply is hampered by lower quality/disease in the Southern States (navel oranges) and logistics issues (lack of freight capacity and higher shipping cost)."_​​_Credit Suisse believes Costa is navigating the situation better than the competition, but lower quality fruit and shipping delays are lowering prices._​​_"We now expect CGC AUD citrus export prices to be flat despite a near 10 per cent depreciation in the AUD-USD."_​​_Separately, avocado pricing has not quite recovered to Credit Suisse's modelling._​​_"We lowered our citrus and avocado revenue/price for 2022. We carried some Avocado weakness into future years because the industry is entrenched in oversupply."_​


----------



## rcw1 (11 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> .._.. that there may be another price dump_?
> 
> Now in a Trading Halt, but only after dropping to $2.53, or down 12%, this morning.
> 
> ...



Good afternoon Dona Ferentes
Unfavourable earn from lower citrus supply and the avocado oversupply situation.

Kind regards 
rcw1


----------



## rcw1 (11 July 2022)

JohnDe said:


> *Costa pauses after earnings warning*​​_Shares in agribusiness Costa Group Holdings are in a trading pause after falling more than 12 per cent lower to $2.53 just before noon._​​_The fall came after an analyst warning about a potential earnings impact from lower citrus supply and the entrenched avocado oversupply situation._​​_In a note, Credit Suisse analyst Larry Gandler cut Costa to neutral, from outperform, and slashed its target price to $2.80 (from $3.70) because while demand is strong for agribusiness Costa's produce, "supply and logistics remain a challenge"._​_"It appears the 2022 citrus season is not matching our previous expectations._​​_"The 2022 citrus supply is hampered by lower quality/disease in the Southern States (navel oranges) and logistics issues (lack of freight capacity and higher shipping cost)."_​​_Credit Suisse believes Costa is navigating the situation better than the competition, but lower quality fruit and shipping delays are lowering prices._​​_"We now expect CGC AUD citrus export prices to be flat despite a near 10 per cent depreciation in the AUD-USD."_​​_Separately, avocado pricing has not quite recovered to Credit Suisse's modelling._​​_"We lowered our citrus and avocado revenue/price for 2022. We carried some Avocado weakness into future years because the industry is entrenched in oversupply."_​



Hi JohnDe
Sorry I just read your post… Its been awhile!! Take care.  Kind regards rcw1


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## galumay (11 July 2022)

blah, blah, blah,,,

As I said 3 ½ years ago!



galumay said:


> blah, blah blah...
> 
> 
> 
> As i said 6 months ago.


----------



## divs4ever (11 July 2022)

will probably hate myself  by the end of the week  

 but have lobbed a SMALL , low-ball  bid in the market 

 i normally  avoid  'fruit ' stocks  and much rather hold  the landlord  ( like say RFF  )


----------



## divs4ever (11 July 2022)

Market Update
Half Year results
Ahead of the release of half year results, Costa notes its operations performed well in 1HCY2022 and
unaudited results are anticipated to be in line with the Company’s expectations. The International
and Domestic produce segments are both expected to finish the half year ahead of the
corresponding prior half year (1HCY2021).
Further detailed information will be provided at the 1HCY2022 results release on 26 August 2022.
Citrus season progress update
Across the portfolio the citrus season has seen strong demand and pricing, with fruit continuing to be
successfully exported to China and other key Asian markets, with an improvement in shipping services
versus the prior year, albeit transit times and service performance are still not at pre pandemic levels.
The 2PH business is predominantly operating in line with pre-acquisition expectations with volumes
above forecast, however some quality issues have been encountered due to weather events occurring
over recent weeks. Certain varieties have been affected, and at this stage of the harvest this has
resulted in a lower percentage of first grade product versus the prior year.
Whilst we are currently approximately halfway through the 2PH harvest season, given the first four
months of the year are non-sales period, the majority of 2PH earnings are in the second half of the
year.
The Riverland and Sunraysia crops are circa one third through the season as at the beginning of July,
and demand for all varieties remains strong with increased pricing versus the prior year. However,
weather events have also resulted in some quality issues which have become evident as the season
has progressed, most notably with Navels, and more so in Sunraysia than the Riverland. This has
impacted pack out rates versus the prior year. Similar to 2PH, the Riverland and Sunraysia operations
earnings are predominantly recognised in the second half of the year.
The full impact of these quality issues across the citrus portfolio on final pricing outcomes and second
half earnings cannot be determined until the citrus season is further progressed. With the benefit of
the season being more advanced, a more fulsome update will be provided at the investor briefing
following the 1HCY2022 results release on 26 August 2022.
Unit 1, 275 Robinsons Road, Ravenhall VIC 3023 – Locked Bag 1000, Sunshine VIC 3020
p|+613 8363 9000 f|+613 8363 9099 |www.costagroup.com.au
Investor briefing
An investor briefing will be held at 10.00am (AEST) on Friday 26 August 2022 following the release of
the 1HCY2022 results. The briefing is a webcast and will be accessible via the investor centre on our
website at www.costagroup.com.au
END
Authorised by David Thomas, Company Secretary, Costa Group Holdings Limited.

=============================================================================
( DYOR )

i do not hold this share

 will leave that order in all week   , but looks like i will be missing out  , so far


----------



## JohnDe (30 July 2022)

Another poor decision by Costa Group, or good long term planing?

_It starts with the much maligned avocado – once a symbol of decadence blamed as the reason Millennials were failing to enter the property market. A national oversupply – after green-eyed farmers planted trees with gusto to cash in the booming market – has pushed retail prices to a record low of $1 each._​​_Farmers are producing 22 avocados per Australian each year – a 26 per cent increase in the past 12 months. Rabobank associate analyst Pia Piggott says it is just the beginning of what she calls an “avo-lanche”._​​_*Costa Group, Australia’s biggest fruit and vegetable grower and wholesaler, is planting 40 hectares of avocado trees that are faster growing, producing a higher yield and are more water efficient*. In the past year, the company’s shares have dived 22.9 per cent to $2.56._​​_Ms Piggott says it is expected domestic avocado production will surge 40 per cent, or 50,000 tonnes, in the next five years, hitting 173,000 tonnes. “The good news is consumers’ appetite for the likes of smashed avocado and avo smoothies remains healthy, both in Australia and abroad. Australian households are eating more avocados, as well as spending less on them,” Piggott says._​​_But she adds domestic demand is not enough to lap up the excess supply and farmers will have to look to export markets to preserve their margins. Avocado exports have already surged by more than 350 per cent in the past year, with Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Japan and the Middle East snapping up the fruit._​​_“The rise of avocado consumption in Asia – as a growing middle class embraces the health aspects of the fruit – presents an ongoing opportunity for exporters worldwide,” Piggott says._​​

			https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-this-time-of-high-inflation-some-groceries-are-getting-cheaper/news-story/f4e8a9460ff5c8d06071c21e561ea883


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 September 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Or is it just a dressed up lemon.



_and this has left a bitter taste_



> Australia’s biggest fruit and vegetable wholesaler is on the hunt for a new chief executive after Sean Hallahan stepped away (after just 18 months in the job)


----------



## JohnDe (26 September 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> _and this has left a bitter taste_
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 147303




The question is: why has he resigned?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 September 2022)

JohnDe said:


> The question is: why has he resigned?




earnings outlook looking grim?
too-hard basket to turn it around?
never going to get his performance options/ better chances elsewhere?


----------



## divs4ever (26 September 2022)

don't know why  but have always been a bit cautious about this group  , and not just because of the seasonal and weather impact  issues ( that will occur from time to time )  which is part of the agriculture business 

 maybe hitting $2  will persuade me to run the calculator over this .

 i see logistics ( and the costs of them ) being a concern right across the sector and maybe the fertilizer shortage will be a mid-term issue as well


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 October 2022)

after falling off a cliff, there appears to be another drop .

CGC now sub $2 ..... reporting that earnings in its citrus category will be “_considerably lower_” than previously forecast.

And floods in the Victorian foodbowl won't help.


----------



## bk1 (17 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> part of the agriculture business




I've traded CGC in the past ..cautiously, for this very reason.
Avocados, "a modest gain"
citrus, "considerably lower than previously forecast"
Weather, labour rates and chemicals are a constant danger with these kind of companies.


----------



## mullokintyre (17 October 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> after falling off a cliff, there appears to be another drop .
> 
> CGC now sub $2 ..... reporting that earnings in its citrus category will be “_considerably lower_” than previously forecast.
> 
> And floods in the Victorian foodbowl won't help.



Driving back thru the Riverina citrus areas last week, I was surprised to see so many citrus trees with fruit till on them.
Other places had blossoms forming for this seasons crop next to unpicked trees.
As one person said in the coffee shop, "Great growing season, but no market, no labor, no hope".
Mick


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## Dona Ferentes (17 October 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Driving back thru the Riverina citrus areas last week, I was surprised to see so many citrus trees with fruit till on them.
> Other places had blossoms forming for this seasons crop next to unpicked trees.
> As one person said in the coffee shop, "Great growing season, but no market, no labor, no hope".
> Mick



yup. depressing









						'Difficult to sleep at night': Fruit left to rot, healthcare staff at breaking point amid worker shortage
					

The town of Griffith is emblematic of Australia's worker shortage with fruit left to rot in orchards and months' long backlogs just to see a GP.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## divs4ever (17 October 2022)

have probably missed the opportunity  , but threw in a small buy order sub $2  ( only a dabble , but i need more exposure to the sector  , rather than more food retailers )

 maybe patience won't be a friend this time


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## aus_trader (17 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> have probably missed the opportunity  , but threw in a small buy order sub $2  ( only a dabble , but i need more exposure to the sector  , rather than more food retailers )
> 
> maybe patience won't be a friend this time



I agree with you that eventually this sector will turn IMHO, but it's incredibly frustrating and painful to any trader or investor at the moment to get kicked in the 🥜 again and again !

I think it was luck that we got out with a small profit in the short-term trade in CGC recently in the Speculative Stock Portfolio.

In the farm / fresh produce sector I bought A2M for the Speculative Stock Portfolio recently, but in the current environment it's difficult to hold onto trades as the market has wild swings - usually to the downside 📉. A2M is still hanging on by a thread, but when the market turns for the fresh and farm produce companies, trades in the likes of CGC and A2M will stick and become longer term trends hopefully 🤞


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## divs4ever (17 October 2022)

aus_trader said:


> I agree with you that eventually this sector will turn IMHO, but it's incredibly frustrating and painful to any trader or investor at the moment to get kicked in the 🥜 again and again !
> 
> I think it was luck that we got out with a small profit in the short-term trade in CGC recently in the Speculative Stock Portfolio.
> 
> In the farm / fresh produce sector I bought A2M for the Speculative Stock Portfolio recently, but in the current environment it's difficult to hold onto trades as the market has wild swings - usually to the downside 📉. A2M is still hanging on by a thread, but when the market turns for the fresh and farm produce companies, trades in the likes of CGC and A2M will stick and become longer term trends hopefully 🤞



 am thinking long term with CGC and the sector  , but i missed out today  , am looking for industries that should have long term demand  ( if well run )

 now A2M is still a bit of a puzzler for me NORMALLY milk ( in general ) is facing a demographic issue  ( shrinking , aging  population ) but will A2M keep the current niche  when the climate agenda is trying to cull cattle ( making goat , and camel milk viable natural options )

 of course sanity may return , and the Globalists  get consigned to their rightful  place ( inconvenient moments in history )

 now if brave and willing to mess with FX volatility  SHV  has it's moments of brilliance and disfavor  , but then trading usually need your investment cash back  sooner  rather than sometime down the track  ( i had a very nice run with SHV in the past  , but dealing with companies earning the majority of their profits from the US ... am not so eager , now )


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## JohnDe (26 October 2022)

*PAINE SCHWARTZ PARTNERS SHARE ACQUISITION*

Costa Group Holdings Limited (Costa; ASX:CGC) Australia’s leading grower, packer and marketer of fresh 
fruit and vegetables, notes that an entity managed by Paine Schwartz Partners (Paine Schwartz) has 
notified the ASX that it has obtained a relevant interest in 13.78% of the issued securities of Costa, 
comprising:


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## JohnDe (26 October 2022)

"Paine Schwartz Partners is a private equity firm specializing in sustainable food chain investing. With a differentiated focus on the global food and agribusiness sector, we leverage a thesis-driven approach and operational expertise to enhance value in each of our investments."









						The Firm - Paine Schwartz Partners
					






					paineschwartz.com


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## aus_trader (26 October 2022)

Could this be smart money buying into this beaten down stock I ponder...


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## divs4ever (26 October 2022)

will Paine Schwartz  Partners  keep the holding in their own portfolio  or package it in with an investment product  ( say ,  a managed fund )

 the spike  took CGC out of my target range  , am moving on to the next opportunity


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## aus_trader (26 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> will Paine Schwartz  Partners  keep the holding in their own portfolio  or package it in with an investment product  ( say ,  a managed fund )
> 
> the spike  took CGC out of my target range  , am moving on to the next opportunity



Well, it filled the gap with the recent rally, but the stock is still in a down-trend and likely to head lower if that trend continues.


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