# EW Bears - Get back in your cave...



## White_Knight (24 July 2009)

You have been the scourge of the forums for the last few months - smug arrogance towards those who do not share your views and a general know-it-all attitude. 

If you've been short the last 3 months and got stung, i hope that will grant you a bit of humility for next time.


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## gfresh (24 July 2009)

:bananasmi this should be


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## tech/a (24 July 2009)

*Arrogant--really.*
OK lets see if I can improve on that!

Sorry to disappoint on the Loss side.
Click to Expand or Close to avoid annoyance!
Trade log from around 10.30 yesterday morning.


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## Nick Radge (24 July 2009)

I have 25 positions on in the ASX and 4 in the US.

Every single one long.

Happy to post statements as usual.


_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


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## White_Knight (24 July 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> I have 25 positions on in the ASX and 4 in the US.
> 
> Every single one long.
> 
> ...




A timely post - your book arrived in the mail yesterday and i have been enjoying reading the initial chapters, particularly with regard to risk management.

Incidentally i dont count you in the "arrogant" category.


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## Nick Radge (24 July 2009)

Here is an example of a US position in ADBE. Its a simple 5-wave advance with an a-b-c decline. Green line is entry ( I was filled at $29.02), red line is initial stop, blue line is target and the grey line is the trailing stop.

This looks nice and easy but the last 2-months have been hard.


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## tech/a (24 July 2009)

White_Knight said:


> A timely post - your book arrived in the mail yesterday and i have been enjoying reading the initial chapters, particularly with regard to risk management.
> 
> Incidentally i dont count you in the "arrogant" category.




I'm glad I make the grade.

Firstly *LEARN TO TRADE*

Secondly *WALK THE WALK*

Your heavily long statement for all the view is* WHERE?*

How's that for Arrogance!!
Muppett.


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## White_Knight (24 July 2009)

> were going down to 2800 and i hope so!!!






> No. I'll stick to my forecast, based on a solid understanding of the truly awful fundamentals and major disasters still bearing down on the US economy.






> There are too many hopeful festian fundamentalists posting hopeful scenarios of a return to an everlasting bull market.
> 
> It is not going to happen, and there is much more money to be lost on the long side.






> And the Dow will plummet to 1500 and like wonderful sheep we will follow right behind, fundamentals or not.






> Hope over reality mate see attached chart






> I think most funnymentalists would be on Serverqual which is the new Prozac I've been told.
> 
> How can any funnymentalist exist with so much conflicting data of such dubious quality.






> I see nothing to indicate on the charts of the xao that we are not at the beginning of a wave 5






> And one knows what happens to those who pick bottoms.






> It makes me quite unwell looking at the mugs buying into a falling market.


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## beamstas (24 July 2009)

And was/is your own analysis any better? 

It's easy to jump on board and knock someone or something for providing an analysis, 

It's alot harder to actually provide your own and stand by it. 

Maybe you can "predict" what the market is going to do for us? It shouldn't be so hard, since you have already "proven" eliott wave wrong, what do you bring to the table?

I have 5 ASX positions open right now, all long.

I really don't think EW can be used for predicting


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## Nick Radge (24 July 2009)

Yes, I see what you mean White_Night.


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## Sean K (24 July 2009)

While a few EW'ers are still in a W4, or have called the start of a W5 prematurely, most have still been trading I think.

However, since they've been expecting the last wave down, I imagine they have been conservative with their position sizing, and therefore probably not made the most of this nice bounce.

Smart being cautious perhaps. 

Too early for the EW skeptics to take out their knives though. 

The world economic crisis seems to have been potentially fixed with exactly what caused it ..... Could spell a mighty disaster down the track, just a question of when perhaps. 

I think OWG's expanding triangle count gets taken off the table today. Be interested to see what Mr Elliot comes up with to replace it.


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## Trembling Hand (24 July 2009)

Can I hear victory trumpets warming up?


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## tech/a (24 July 2009)

What!!!

Not one quote from myself?

My arrogance is obviously slipping.
Fortunately this thread will have picked it up again.


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## Frank D (24 July 2009)

I probably think that most EW’s would be sitting this out or on the wrong 
side of it, most if not all haven’t ‘demonstrated anything technically’ 
that would suggest this rising pattern, as most if not all think the market
 is heading lower. 

Where and what set-up?


The point I’m making is….

Why is Nick long who is a EW trader, and others who might be long, whilst other E-wave experts are just hopeless and clueless

Is the Methodology hopeless or is it the person using the methodology hopeless.

It’s probably the latter.


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## skyQuake (24 July 2009)

tech/a said:


> What!!!
> 
> Not one quote from myself?
> 
> ...




Lift yer game :

White_night, don't judge a method by a single practitioner. Keep your mind open and you will learn.


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## Porper (24 July 2009)

Frank D said:


> I probably think that most EW’s would be sitting this out or on the wrong
> side of it, most if not all haven’t ‘demonstrated anything technically’
> that would suggest this rising pattern, as most if not all think the market
> is heading lower.




Don't know where you get that from. Due to the crap we get on here we tend to post to each other. I sent an email to a few traders on the 22nd June suggesting it was a good time to accumulate, including the chart and reasons why. I am more than happy to prove it to any of the mods or Joe. It won't be posted on here though.



Frank D said:


> The point I’m making is….
> 
> Why is Nick long who is a EW trader, and others who might be long, whilst other E-wave experts are just hopeless and clueless




He isn't just an Elliott Wave trader though. Most of his recs have nothing to do with Elliott whatsoever. He can speak for himself, but I have posted numerous times that it should only be used as part of a methodology, not in it's own right.

It seems a few have missed the latest move, are bitter and are taking it out on the E. Wave supporters. 

Maybe you should have a look at your own failings Frank before being so judgmental.


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## wayneL (24 July 2009)




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## Sean K (24 July 2009)

Porper said:


> Due to the crap we get on here we tend to post to each other. I sent an email to a few traders on the 22nd June suggesting it was a good time to accumulate, including the chart and reasons why. I am more than happy to prove it to any of the mods or Joe. It won't be posted on here though.



22 June probably had nothing to do with EW, but we will never know now. Oh well.


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## beamstas (24 July 2009)

I reckon it was the eclipse
Im changing to gann


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## tech/a (24 July 2009)

wayneL said:


>





You crack me up!


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## makingmoney (24 July 2009)

White_Knight said:


> You have been the scourge of the forums for the last few months - smug arrogance towards those who do not share your views and a general know-it-all attitude.
> 
> If you've been short the last 3 months and got stung, i hope that will grant you a bit of humility for next time.




lol..mmm..i think its smart to have money management,looking at your comments in your thread..gratz on picking this leg up, Well gl in long term trading you might get burnt,all do u think this market only heads one way..lol..i think the great warren buffet sums it up for me..dosnt take much brains to jump on the train in a bull run,but takes more common sense when to get off the train..oh btw white knight how long have you been trading ? lol


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## skyQuake (24 July 2009)

beamstas said:


> I reckon it was the eclipse
> Im changing to gann




Ohhh geometric fractals for me!


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## Frank D (24 July 2009)

Porper said:


> Maybe you should have a look at your own failings Frank before being so judgmental.





 I have a habit of binge drinking is one of them.

I put too much garlic in my pasta sauces is another one.

There are probably a few other failings but they escape me at the moment.


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## beamstas (24 July 2009)

Frank D said:


> I have a habit of binge drinking is one of them.
> 
> I put too much garlic in my pasta sauces is another one.




I LOVE pasta saue and drinking
This topic is now about pasta sauce and drinking


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## Porper (24 July 2009)

kennas said:


> 22 June probably had nothing to do with EW, but we will never know now. Oh well.






June 22nd was not significant. It was how the pattern terminated before. Anyway no point going over old news.


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## Frank D (24 July 2009)

beamstas said:


> I LOVE pasta saue and drinking
> This topic is now about pasta sauce and drinking




The trick for a good sauce is use heaps of onions and let it simmer for 2 hours.

At the same time let a bottle of red breathe, occasionally taking sips
 to gauge the consistency. Once dinner is ready open a second one.


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## Cartman (24 July 2009)

Frank D said:


> The trick for a good sauce is use heaps of onions and let it simmer for 2 hours.





adding a little sugar can be interesting 




Frank D said:


> At the same time let a bottle of red breathe, occasionally taking sips
> to gauge the consistency. Once dinner is ready open a second one.




lol ------ alternatively open both bottles simultaneously and forget about the sauce altogether ---


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## Real1ty (24 July 2009)

I think it's unfair to single out the EW'ers.

This forum is full of bears with end of the world scenarios. They might be right in the end but i do find their one eyed views quite surprising and in some cases it is actually ignorance as they refuse to consider the other side of the argument.

They kind of remind me of the child that doesn't want to hear something, so they stick their fingers in their ears and "lalalalalalallala, I can't hear you,lalalalala"

I don't believe in EW but i find that mostly they get ridiculed more than the other way around.


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## Sean K (24 July 2009)

Porper said:


> June 22nd was not significant. It was how the pattern terminated before. Anyway no point going over old news.



Thanks for the insight.


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## nunthewiser (24 July 2009)

LOL funny thread


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## Porper (24 July 2009)

kennas said:


> Thanks for the insight.




No need to be like that. 

Check your private messages.


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## White_Knight (24 July 2009)

Alright, i owe a few apologies. I've been riled up of late by a few comments - the "Nausea" thread on the front page was the straw that broke the camel's back.

There are several posters in here who i wouldnt have dreamed of casting aspersions on but unfortunately tarred them with the same brush. Bagging out a system and its practitioners based on a collection of posts was the wrong way to go about it. Big-noting was not the intent.

I'll come back when i've got the trading record to back a mouth.


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## Sean K (24 July 2009)

White_Knight said:


> Alright, i owe a few apologies. I've been riled up of late by a few comments - the "Nausea" thread on the front page was the straw that broke the camel's back.
> 
> There are several posters in here who i wouldnt have dreamed of casting aspersions on but unfortunately tarred them with the same brush. Bagging out a system and its practitioners based on a collection of posts was the wrong way to go about it. Big-noting was not the intent.
> 
> I'll come back when i've got the trading record to back a mouth.



Don't find too many apologies here. Nice one. 

Even though I agree with you to some extent. 

EW needs to be able to take some criticism, and then dish it back in spades! But it doesn't seem to be doing it. 

Maybe we just don't get it.


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## tech/a (24 July 2009)

> EW needs to be able to take some criticism, and then dish it back in spades! But it doesn't seem to be doing it.




Rubbish Kenna's 

Elliott Wave analysis is always correct.

Its the *Practitioners* who get it wrong!
In both interpretation AND application.


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## sammy84 (24 July 2009)

makingmoney said:


> lol..mmm..i think its smart to have money management,looking at your comments in your thread..gratz on picking this leg up, Well gl in long term trading you might get burnt,all do u think this market only heads one way..lol..i think the great warren buffet sums it up for me..dosnt take much brains to jump on the train in a bull run,but takes more common sense when to get off the train..oh btw white knight how long have you been trading ? lol




Who is willing to chip in to get this person some english lessons. I for one am! It pains me everytime I read his or her posts. Give so they can post


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## Timmy (24 July 2009)

White_Knight said:


> Alright, i owe a few apologies. I've been riled up of late by a few comments - the "Nausea" thread on the front page was the straw that broke the camel's back.




Hey White Knight, don't be too hard on yourself.  I think if some people actually read what it was you wrote then the narky comments wouldn't have flowed so quickly.

You titled the thread "EW Bears - Get back in your cave...".  To me, that's pretty clear.  Specifically aimed at the Elliot Wave *bears*.  To all those who have been *long *using EW, I can't really understand why you have jumped all over White Knight, its not you he is talking to?


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## Frank D (24 July 2009)

tech/a said:


> Elliott Wave analysis is always correct.


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## Timmy (24 July 2009)

tech/a said:


> Elliott Wave analysis is always correct.
> 
> Its the *Practitioners* who get it wrong!
> In both interpretation AND application.




Tech, genuine question.  What do you mean EW analysis is always correct?  In the chart you attached to your first post in this thread you had written in a comment "Not all Elliot has been spot on all you need to do is be able to apply it correctly"  What do you mean by these two statements?

I hope you can expand on this.


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## prawn_86 (24 July 2009)

tech/a said:


> Elliott Wave analysis is always correct.



 in hindsight, like every other trading method


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## White_Knight (24 July 2009)

Timmy said:


> Hey White Knight, don't be too hard on yourself.  I think if some people actually read what it was you wrote then the narky comments wouldn't have flowed so quickly




When Nick Radge bothers to come into your thread and give you a clip around the ears, you know you've done something wrong. :


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## Nick Radge (24 July 2009)

I'm not clipping anyone around the ear. Everyone is entitled to an opinion and I'm certainly open minded enough to know that EW is not for everyone and even technical analysis is not for everyone. I have no time for Gann or time analysis, yet others swear by them. After trading for 23+ years their strength of opinion is not going to sway me nor will I be arrogant enough to disparage or belittle what they do. Each to their own. 

I think what is being highlighted here is that Elliott Wave is a means to an end, not the do all be all of righteous trading. 

I think we should also consider that the worlds best analysts can also be the worst traders - I'm sure there are some very talented financial planners out there that lost a lot of money last year. Look at LTCM - big brains, big losses.

Being a great analyst is one thing. Being a great trader is something else entirely.

EW to me has been pointing lower but the market is going up. I've got to trade what I see not what I think and is why I 100% long.

To make the connect between EW and the recent market action, take a look at the XJO on July 8. There are 3 or 4 bullish signals right on that day that said price will 'more than likely' go higher. I'll post those bullish signals a little if its of interest.

Nick


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## Timmy (24 July 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> I've got to trade what I see not what I think




Nice post.  Just wanted to pick out that one line there.

I saw it on a bulletin board somewhere and the next post was the Haley Joel Osment line from Sixth Sense ... "I see dead people".  Cracks up me up to this day.


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## >Apocalypto< (24 July 2009)

a bit of info for this topic.

Please refer to the links below! 

A EW practitioner did makes some statements 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=408248&postcount=582

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=408250&postcount=583

Cheers,


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## tech/a (24 July 2009)

Timmy said:


> Tech, genuine question.  What do you mean EW analysis is always correct?  In the chart you attached to your first post in this thread you had written in a comment "Not all Elliot has been spot on all you need to do is be able to apply it correctly"  What do you mean by these two statements?
> 
> I hope you can expand on this.




Timmy.
As always the shifting wave counts cause problems with those who arent familiar with Elliott.
More frustrating to those who need a Cemented Analysis is the fact that there are often aternate counts to the one move.

So comparing the count by Aget with one by Radge or Picker may see a different count.Purists will argue one is more correct than the other.
One may well be--- but if each conforms to the principal laws of Elliott then in my own humble view each can be used with confidence---for me I just need an idea of Market direction and possible target.

This (Elliott) is what I use for that.
Ive also bought Franks book----studied it and found his Projections in all timeframes excellent.But just as mystifying to those who cant understand why a level doesnt hold and keeps barrelling through.


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## Timmy (24 July 2009)

tech/a said:


> -- but if each conforms to the principal laws of Elliott then in my own humble view each can be used with confidence---for me I just need an idea of Market direction and possible target.
> 
> This (Elliott) is what I use for that.




Thanks Tech, understood.


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## wayneL (24 July 2009)

Just a thought, before scurrying back to safety 
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





: 

As I understand it, EW works as a result of mass psychology.

But there is a credible view that the market is being manipulated by........ who the hell knows, Goldman Sachs, the US gu'mint, The Devil, someone (see video on the Market IS manipulated thread).

This surely would "interfere" with EW analysis.

Either way, whoever is pushing the market, don't fight the tape, trade what you see not what you think.

In the interests of self preservation, I'm going back to my popcorn.


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## ThingyMajiggy (24 July 2009)

As far as I understand EW, it should be used as a support, decision support system rather than solely EW. 

Personally, in response to wayne, I wouldn't go anywhere near it if they didn't align, if I was an EW trader and used it with my VSA analysis, I would only enter when they were both supporting the same bias ie. both bullish/bearish, not when one was saying a down move is expected and the other is saying an up move is expected. 

Even more so, I think its down to the individual.


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## tech/a (24 July 2009)

wayneL said:


> Just a thought, before scurrying back to safety
> 
> 
> 
> ...




So are we talking E/W analysis on "The Market" IE Indexes.
Or individual stocks?
Ive commented before how we often see an alignment of stock counts mirroring Index counts.

I dont think any serious technical analyst trades what he thinks.


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## wayneL (24 July 2009)

tech/a said:


> So are we talking E/W analysis on "The Market" IE Indexes.
> Or individual stocks?
> Ive commented before how we often see an alignment of stock counts mirroring Index counts.




Oh ****, I'm getting dragged into this 

Manipulation affects both via arbitrage. GS pushes the futures up a % and the arb bots take care of the rest.



tech/a said:


> dont think any serious technical analyst trades what he thinks.




Not old time battle scarred warriors like most of us here, but there are still plenty of ideologues about.


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