# US Market Outlook 2006



## crash82au (29 December 2005)

*Re: US Stocks To Watch by Vulcans who trade for fun*

webs whats the market looking like in the u.s for 2006?

danial


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## websman (30 December 2005)

*Re: US Stocks To Watch by Vulcans who trade for fun*



			
				crash82au said:
			
		

> webs whats the market looking like in the u.s for 2006?
> 
> danial




It's looking weak to me so far.  I've closed out all but one long position, and am considering the possibility of short positions.  I want to see what the new year brings, before I decide anything.

Rising interest rates and the slow down of the housing market are reason for concern, as well as the continuing war on terrorism.


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## brisvegas (30 December 2005)

*Re: US Stocks To Watch by Vulcans who trade for fun*



			
				websman said:
			
		

> It's looking weak to me so far.  I've closed out all but one long position, and am considering the possibility of short positions.  I want to see what the new year brings, before I decide anything.
> 
> Rising interest rates and the slow down of the housing market are reason for concern, as well as the continuing war on terrorism.




yes have to agree there the US is starting to look a little shakey , noticed that in last week have started to get a slight inversion in bond rate yield curve . whilst early days yet statistically once we get a full blown inversion the next year equity wise in US is ordinary to say the least . with the last inversion occuring in 2000 . certainly a time to be prudent in markets and reduce leverage at the very least id say US tradingwise . whilst australia would no doubt be affected to a degree id say we are insulated a tad due to commodity boom . 


............. pete


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## websman (31 December 2005)

*Re: US Stocks To Watch by Vulcans who trade for fun*

2005 has been a good year for me, considering the market conditions.  My total gain for 2005 is 31.5%.  If I were to include my contributions to my account my actual account value has increased by 55.5%.

Can you do that?  You?  You??  YOU???

I'm huge!  But not as huge as Mr Market.


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## brisvegas (31 December 2005)

*Re: US Stocks To Watch by Vulcans who trade for fun*

ok was trying to talk markets but was'nt to be . put it away , measure it later



............ pete


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## websman (31 December 2005)

*Re: US Stocks To Watch by Vulcans who trade for fun*



			
				brisvegas said:
			
		

> ok was trying to talk markets but was'nt to be . put it away , measure it later
> 
> 
> 
> ............ pete




Sorry Pete, I get distracted easily.


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## RichKid (31 December 2005)

I've created a new thread for this topic, since we have the luxury of separate forums and threads with modern whiz bang forum software it'll be a shame not to use it....believe me it's a lot tidier and easier for everyone in the long run....the Vulcan's Stock thread can be for individual stock picks whereas this thread deserves its own little corner in the forum. Sorry to confuse any illogical vulcans out there!!! and I won't say that what I'm doing is only logical....


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## websman (31 December 2005)

RichKid said:
			
		

> I've created a new thread for this topic, since we have the luxury of separate forums and threads with modern whiz bang forum software it'll be a shame not to use it....believe me it's a lot tidier and easier for everyone in the long run....the Vulcan's Stock thread can be for individual stock picks whereas this thread deserves its own little corner in the forum. Sorry to confuse any illogical vulcans out there!!! and I won't say that what I'm doing is only logical....




Looks logical to me.


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## bullmarket (31 December 2005)

Hi to anyone reading this 

I watched Nightly Business Report on sbs earlier and they said that most market watchers are expecting an up year for the DJIA in the US in 2006 but the gains to be less than 10%. The reasons they gave were that EPS growth for the S&P500 should be ~10% next year with interest rates and oil prices stabilising.

But another commentator on the program said that he expects the Fed Reserve to continue raising interest rates, due to still high growth and inflation concerns, to higher levels than their market currently expects and so is expecting a down year.

Anyway, my   says that imo the DJIA will struggle to break through 11000, especially with any real conviction, if retested for at least the next 6 months and possibly 12.  I still don't think that consumer confidence (the main driver of the US economy) is strong enough atm for the DJIA to stay above 11000 for very long if retested.  But I'm not expecting the DJIA to dip back below 10000 in the next 6 months either.

I also think our ASX200 Index, XJO, will trade in the ~4300-4900 range for at least the next 6 months.

Happy New Year everyone and best wishes for 2006..!!!!

cheers 

bullmarket


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## happytrader (31 December 2005)

Hi everyone

I just thought this might be a point to ponder. Global shopping is gaining momentum. I say this because my children and most of their friends buy nearly everything from clothes, shoes, instruments, sports goods etc etc globally via the internet and to top it off they're pretty savy with the exchange rates too. 

Would it not be reasonable and logical to assume that globally aware market traders are doing exactly the same thing? If market traders aren't shopping in the US at the moment, then they must have found a better deal elsewhere. 

Cheers
Happytrader


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## yogi-in-oz (1 January 2006)

Looking into 2006 ..... Warning: ..... astrostuff ahead ..... 


Hi folks,

Attached is some astroanalysis of the market sector rotations 
for US and Aussie markets, expected in 2006 ..... 

happy new year

  yogi


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## mlennox (2 January 2006)

i opened 3 short positions on friday expecting a decent fall in the american market this week.

increased my bank by 45.2% since august trading purely tech stocks, my big winners being sandisk and apple (love my pen drive and ipod )


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## Whathell (5 January 2006)

wow, yogi that's some astro analysis there.... i've read gann's stuff but some of it never made much sense to me. 

I really like the time aspect of his work, but unfortunately i couldn't understand much of it, particularly his squares of 9 etc... is there software that can do that nowadays?


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