# CDA - Codan Limited



## Trader Paul (1 July 2007)

Hi folks,

CDA ..... will be alert for some positive news, this week.



Chart for CDA, attached ..... 

happy days

  paul



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## Trader Paul (1 March 2010)

Hi folks,

CDA ..... will be alert for some more positive news, around 05-09032010,
as a significant and positive time cycle comes into play ..... 

..... be warned, this stock is thinly traded ... !~!

have a great day

  paul



=====


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## Trader Paul (1 March 2010)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> CDA ..... will be alert for some more positive news, around 05-09032010,
> as a significant and positive time cycle comes into play .....
> ...






Hi folks,

CDA ..... a good start to the week and the chart is primed
to rally out of a huge rounding bottom, building up
since the lows, around Christmas 2008 ... !~!

After an investor presentation was released today, we
might expect more interest in this stock, later in the 
week (see time cycle detailed in post above) ... and
especially so now, as the Chilean earthquake is likely 
to have a direct bearing on its sales ..... 

have a great day

   paul



=====


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## Trader Paul (6 March 2010)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> CDA ..... will be alert for some more positive news, around 05-09032010,
> as a significant and positive time cycle comes into play .....
> ...






Hi folks,

CDA ... we will be alert for some more good news, early this week, 
as 2 positive time cycles come together and hopefully, this will backup 
the investor presentation posted last week, as well ..... 

..... CDA chart looks primed to blow out the top, too ... !~!

have a great week all

    paul



=====


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## Trader Paul (11 March 2010)

Hi folks,


CDA ... ticking up nicely, now ..... 

Our astrostuff and TIME stops will have us looking for minor and positive 
news 12-15032010 and another minor time cycle on 17032010, but definitely 
exit by 22032010 (probably close on 19032010), as a minor and negative 
lunar cycle is expected early on 22032010 ..... and  on 23032010, more 
minor news is expected for CDA.

Meanwhile, price stop is back at, about 1.30 to make it a 
painless trade, if it all falls apart.

have a great day

    paul



=====


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## condog (18 September 2010)

Its a lonely place in here paul, and this growth is a little slow for me, but i just read on Eureka report site a great write up saying this thing is about 20% undervalue and a great buy etc.  So i think your on to something.  The article had some compelling reasons to buy.


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## McLovin (5 October 2012)

Colour me stumped. Can someone explain this for me. CDA balance sheet shows debt increasing by $5.131m but the cash flow statement only shows $1.887m in proceeds from borrowings. What am I missing?


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## Ves (5 October 2012)

McLovin said:


> Colour me stumped. Can someone explain this for me. CDA balance sheet shows debt increasing by $5.131m but the cash flow statement only shows $1.887m in proceeds from borrowings. What am I missing?



I can't figure it out either.  They did make an acquisition, but I do not understand how this would affect it. They would not just take over the debt (if any) of the firm they acquired, would they?

edit: I think it's an error.  If you look at the acquisition completion announcement in January 2012 they used their existing debt facility to pay the entire $10 million.  This certainly does not appear on the cash flow statement under receipts from borrowings.


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## skc (5 October 2012)

McLovin said:


> Colour me stumped. Can someone explain this for me. CDA balance sheet shows debt increasing by $5.131m but the cash flow statement only shows $1.887m in proceeds from borrowings. What am I missing?




They made an acquisition for $6m + earn out and said it will be entirely funded by existing debt facility.

So for some reason the $6m debt didn't appear in the cash flow statement under financiing cash flows, yet somehow it is shown under investing cash flow "acquisition of a subsidiary".

Agree it doesn't make sense.


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## McLovin (6 October 2012)

Thanks guys. The accounts are pretty impressive otherwise. Although they did pay a bit over 10x EBITDA for their latest acquisition,


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## CanOz (6 October 2012)

Another nice one...heaps around in these 'trendy' times...Some past sellers to watch out for...But otherwise a nice looking chart.


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## Ves (6 October 2012)

CanOz said:


> Another nice one...heaps around in these 'trendy' times...Some past sellers to watch out for...But otherwise a nice looking chart.



Also looking at this, albeit from a fundamental perspective.  Still working out how much the "mining boom" affects their growth.  Perhaps not as much as some I have decided.   Thanks for your comments Canoz on these threads tonight. Been a joy reading from a technical perspective, your views, although I don't use the method, look pretty reasonable to me!


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## CanOz (7 October 2012)

Ves said:


> Also looking at this, albeit from a fundamental perspective.  Still working out how much the "mining boom" affects their growth.  Perhaps not as much as some I have decided.   Thanks for your comments Canoz on these threads tonight. Been a joy reading from a technical perspective, your views, although I don't use the method, look pretty reasonable to me!




Yeah, its really cool when the fundamental stuff mesh's well with the price stuff...

CanOz


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## McLovin (8 October 2012)

Ves said:


> Also looking at this, albeit from a fundamental perspective.  Still working out how much the "mining boom" affects their growth.  Perhaps not as much as some I have decided.   Thanks for your comments Canoz on these threads tonight. Been a joy reading from a technical perspective, your views, although I don't use the method, look pretty reasonable to me!




I don't think mining is their big thing. They tend to be more into military/humanitarian. Having just gotten back from Central Asia (and having driven right through the place) I can tell you that phone reception is sketchy at best, you either have to rely on satellite phones/radios or on HF radio. HF is obviously far cheaper than satellite. They're operating in a small market. HF radios aren't going to boom but equally I don't think they will die out, they have terrific utility that you just can't get on VHF/UHF/SHF and they're cheap, let the ionisphere do all the work, so I guess it's more about whether they can maintain their piece of the pie.


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## Country Lad (8 October 2012)

McLovin said:


> I don't think mining is their big thing. They tend to be more into military/humanitarian.




Their income is 55% metal detection products (includes military products for mine detection), 37% communication (including satellite), 5% mining technology and 3% other. 

Cheers
Country Lad


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## McLovin (8 October 2012)

Country Lad said:


> Their income is 55% metal detection products (includes military products for mine detection), 37% communication (including satellite), 5% mining technology and 3% other.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




They got out of satellite last year.


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## prawn_86 (12 October 2012)

Has been pushed up a bit lately. CUrrently at about 18 month highs, and if it can push above here and hold it might get a few tech analysts interested in a breakout. Volume seems pretty low though


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## ROE (12 October 2012)

This is a solid business, I monitor them for a while but only bought them when they got rid of their satellite business as I think that will drag down the company, once that is out of the way and stock still trades cheap I load up.

Their metal detector are world class and very well known and used by artisanal miner and 
UN and other organisation to detect mines etc...

they are the metal detector to get if you are serious...they are so good the Chinese
try to knock it off and sell them as CDA products...

it is a funny stories because a lot of them buy these cheap knock off and has CDA label all over it
they brought back to CDA shop for support and service.....CDA now implement chips in these devices
to counter the knock off. 

Their radio business is target at military use and mining where there is little
communication infrastructure so you can say this guy build a name on the 
frontier markets and less developed countries

Their products and services are well known so people keep coming back for more
pretty much like ARP in 4 wheels drive...if you want 4 Wheels accessories then ARB is
the name...

There is a lot to like about this business, strong balance sheet, excellent management
who look after small shareholders like the big guys, great dividend and It was very cheap
when I bought it...another business buy and hold..


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## Out Too Soon (15 October 2012)

Better late than never, just jumped on the bandwagon. We'll see how long this trends.


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## ROE (17 October 2012)

Another stars on the rise
The AGM is like a page from a fairy tale
I called this the next ARP


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## prawn_86 (17 October 2012)

Well picked ROE.

From the chairmans report (my bold):



> The first quarter of FY13 has seen the continuation of the strong business conditions experienced by Codan in the second half of FY12, with the metal detection division and gold detector sales in particular, performing strongly. Given the continued strength of our business, it’s likely that we will post a very strong net profit after tax result for the first half. The Board is of the view that net profit after tax *should reach $25 million *dollars for the first half, which will be *more than double that of the first half last year *and will be the highest half year profit number in the company’s history.




And targeting 40% higher for the FY overall next year.


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## ROE (17 October 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Well picked ROE.
> 
> From the chairmans report (my bold):
> 
> ...




I assume u got some then when you message me and 
I said 140 is a bargain?


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## prawn_86 (17 October 2012)

ROE said:


> I assume u got some then when you message me and
> I said 140 is a bargain?




Yes picked some at at 1.45 before the latest dividend was paid, so with hindsight wish i had bought more


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## prawn_86 (22 October 2012)

Keeps on pushing higher. Closing on a high and up another 6% on the back of a down day for the overall market.

Would love a chartists view of the current position, i would have thought a pullback would be needed soon


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## ROE (22 October 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Keeps on pushing higher. Closing on a high and up another 6% on the back of a down day for the overall market.
> 
> Would love a chartists view of the current position, i would have thought a pullback would be needed soon




all about earning expectation now...would it pull a 20c EPS or higher..

and if it does would it increase dividend? because if that is that case above $2 isn't demanding....

Breaking 52 week high that would bring out most techies as a buy


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## prawn_86 (7 November 2012)

Up another 6% so far today. Volumes are fairly sparse of late but it has still continued to push higher over the last 2 weeks.


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## Country Lad (21 January 2013)

Has been kind and generous to me and looks ready for another break.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## prawn_86 (22 January 2013)

Country Lad said:


> Has been kind and generous to me and looks ready for another break.




Up nearly 5% so far this morning. Great call


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## McLovin (22 January 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Up nearly 5% so far this morning. Great call




Half yearly should be out soon. It's probably why the SP is having a run.


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## skc (22 January 2013)

McLovin said:


> Half yearly should be out soon. It's probably why the SP is having a run.




At this level it better be a cracker of a result...imo.

I've noticed a few stocks putting on big runs in the second half of 2012 on the back of strong June results... only to hit a bit of a wall when they provide market update.

So at this level it's a hold for me unless you are quite certain about the upcoming report.


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## McLovin (22 January 2013)

skc said:


> At this level it better be a cracker of a result...imo.
> 
> I've noticed a few stocks putting on big runs in the second half of 2012 on the back of strong June results... only to hit a bit of a wall when they provide market update.
> 
> So at this level it's a hold for me unless you are quite certain about the upcoming report.




If they hit the mark that they said they would at the AGM, then CDA is on ~10.5x 2013 FY earnings.


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## prawn_86 (18 February 2013)

Still grining higher with big volumes going through Friday and today.

Im at work so dont have my normal platform, but average volume looks to be 150 - 200k per day yet Friday had 1.5m and today has had 500k already...


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## tinhat (18 February 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Still grining higher with big volumes going through Friday and today.
> 
> Im at work so dont have my normal platform, but average volume looks to be 150 - 200k per day yet Friday had 1.5m and today has had 500k already...




The figures I have is that volume on Friday was 510,000 and that average daily volume (past 21 days) is 396,000.


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## prawn_86 (18 February 2013)

tinhat said:


> The figures I have is that volume on Friday was 510,000 and that average daily volume (past 21 days) is 396,000.




Sorry, it must have been Thursday that was 1m plus and Friday not today that was 0.5m. I really should not check this stuff at work


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## ROE (21 February 2013)

Half-year highlights: 
 Highest half-year profit in the company’s history 
Interim dividend increased by 50% to 6.0 cents 
Continued strong growth of metal detector sales  
Tough business conditions in Radio Communications, but a major product 
release achieved 
Successful acquisition of land mobile radio business and related capital 
raising 
Minetec business continues to transition to a technology solutions supplier 
to the mining industry 
 Second-half profit for FY13 expected to be as strong as first half


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## Country Lad (21 February 2013)

Interesting to watch CDA.  A turnaround of 10% from being down 10 cents just before the announcement to now being up 23 cents.  Nervous nellies probably now kicking themselves.



> Half-year highlights:
> ● Highest half-year profit in the company’s history
> ● Interim dividend increased by 50% to 6.0 cents
> ● Continued strong growth of metal detector sales
> ...




Cheers
Country Lad

I still hold lots

EDIT:    ROE beat me to it while I made a cup of coffee.


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## ROE (21 February 2013)

I always like my stocks keep paying me more and more dividend each year more power to
drive the compounding machine


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## prawn_86 (21 February 2013)

Country Lad said:


> I still hold lots




Yeh this is my 2nd biggest holding behind CAB.

Even if they dont increase the final divvy i will still be getting over 7.5%pa based on my purchase price. Good to see also that they are forecasting the same again for the 2nd half


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## Country Lad (21 February 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> ................Good to see also that they are forecasting the same again for the 2nd half




That would be the main reason for the rise - another example of how the market is forward looking.  Good result on a day where the market is down a bit.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## McLovin (21 February 2013)

Wish I'd got more at $1.50.  I was building a posi and then they ran away.


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## ROE (22 February 2013)

http://afr.com/p/markets/market_wrap/codan_poised_for_re_rating_E3GcfJrXa7Hij4uHnAIxON


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## Country Lad (27 February 2013)

Update to this apparent never ending upward trend.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## prawn_86 (27 February 2013)

Country Lad said:


> Update to this apparent never ending upward trend.




Yeh has run a bit too hard too fast for my liking. Personally i wouldnt be surprised with a heavy drop when it goes ex div


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## Huskar (28 February 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Yeh has run a bit too hard too fast for my liking. Personally i wouldnt be surprised with a heavy drop when it goes ex div




As always though if you sell on valuation grounds the market will promptly show you how high it can go!

Happy days for holders


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## McLovin (28 February 2013)

Huskar said:


> As always though if you sell on valuation grounds the market will promptly show you how high it can go!
> 
> Happy days for holders




It's still only on 11x forward earnings. Not overvalued, IMO.


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## Country Lad (1 March 2013)

Part of the interest may be its inclusion in the ASX300 Index which would have been anticipated.  Quite a bit of movement in the index, 17 in all.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## Huskar (22 March 2013)

Codan recently lost head of communications division, Kevin Kane, to a much larger privately owned US competitor, Datron World Communications Inc. Pretty damn good promotion if you ask me, from head of division to President and CEO of US company. He must be an impressive guy.

http://www.marketwire.com/press-rel...adership-change-with-kevin-j-kane-1767640.htm

Perhaps helps explain recent sharp pullback.


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## Country Lad (22 March 2013)

I sold on 14th when the sentiment appeared to turn.  Missed the high the next day but them's the breaks.  

Has failed in break from pennant and sentiment has dissipated, so we may see it being ignored for a while.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## aa2 (28 March 2013)

Damn only just became aware of this company last week
Wish it was 6 months ago

Very impressive fundamentals - earnings growth, high return on equity, falling debt to equity

Have I missed the boat ?  Is their market large enough to continue the growth ?


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## prawn_86 (17 April 2013)

Has anyone not received their dividend yet? I believe the date payable was about 2 weeks ago but i havent seen anything yet, just wondeering if others are the same

Hit hard 9% down yesterday, no news from the co for the past 6 weeks


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## VSntchr (17 April 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Has anyone not received their dividend yet? I believe the date payable was about 2 weeks ago but i havent seen anything yet, just wondeering if others are the same
> 
> Hit hard 9% down yesterday, no news from the co for the past 6 weeks




Revenue coming from business with exposure to the commodities I'd say. Combined with the fact that the massive surge in price over the recent times helped many people to take profits in an attempt to free up funds for stocks which are becoming cheap in the market falls/just taking some risk off the table.

Got my eye on this one


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## ROE (17 April 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Has anyone not received their dividend yet? I believe the date payable was about 2 weeks ago but i havent seen anything yet, just wondeering if others are the same
> 
> Hit hard 9% down yesterday, no news from the co for the past 6 weeks




Yeah bank dividend a while ago yeah around 2 weeks ago ....direct credit is best ....else may get lost in the mail with the cheque.....nothing change in my view for CDA ....maybe some good opportunity coming up


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## skc (17 April 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Has anyone not received their dividend yet? I believe the date payable was about 2 weeks ago but i havent seen anything yet, just wondeering if others are the same
> 
> Hit hard 9% down yesterday, no news from the co for the past 6 weeks




May be the falling gold price means that metal detector demand will fall


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## Huskar (17 April 2013)

skc said:


> May be the falling gold price means that metal detector demand will fall




Also a real large line of shares went through last Friday: 7m. Someone getting out?..


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## TommyXu (18 April 2013)

Huskar said:


> Also a real large line of shares went through last Friday: 7m. Someone getting out?..





Correct me if i am wrong.

I think the real cause of the sharp decline of the share price this week is due to the anticipated announcement of "Profit Guidance" in late April. For the last 2 years, this guidnance was release in third week of April (wednesday). However, so far they still have not released it.

Investors really worry about whether the company may downgrade its earning forecase for the year due to falling gold price. From my personal viewpoint, I do not think it is the case. The NPAT this year should hit 50m range which is more than the 40m range announced early in the year.

We will see..


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## chops_a_must (18 April 2013)

A large breakdown, such as this one, is very rarely a good sign.

Off my watchlist for now.


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## prawn_86 (18 April 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> A large breakdown, such as this one, is very rarely a good sign.
> 
> Off my watchlist for now.




Yes it certaintly has been smashed as late. Surprised it hasnt gotten a speeding ticket


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## VSntchr (18 April 2013)

Just been promoted on my watchlist. 
Earnings are not solely related to gold and regardless, prispectors arent going to quit prospecting en-masse because the price of gold is lower.

Despite the massive price run ovet the last few months it never got terribly expensice and is looking pretty good now i think


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## Huskar (18 April 2013)

VSntchr said:


> Earnings are not solely related to gold and regardless, prispectors arent going to quit prospecting en-masse because the price of gold is lower.




I'm with you.

But surely that is fairly obvious - which makes me think, what does the market know that I do not?...

When you are asking yourself this question it is usually best to find out the answer from the sideline

My


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## TommyXu (18 April 2013)

Huskar said:


> I'm with you.
> 
> But surely that is fairly obvious - which makes me think, what does the market know that I do not?...
> 
> ...





I think the drop of gold price and the delay of major profit guidance announcement in April cause panic among investors. If you guys still remember, there is a sharp price drop before they released the half year accounts in Feb (drop from 2.9# to almost 2.3#).


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## So_Cynical (18 April 2013)

skc said:


> May be the falling gold price means that metal detector demand will fall




That's the conclusion i came to..pretty much the only conclusion that's possible without an announcement.



VSntchr said:


> Got my eye on this one




The cue starts behind me.


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## prawn_86 (19 April 2013)

Speeding ticket finally issued yesterday and a standard "We know nothing" reply


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## prawn_86 (22 April 2013)

VSntchr said:


> is looking pretty good now i think






Huskar said:


> I'm with you.






So_Cynical said:


> The cue starts behind me.




Has rebounded strongly after the speeding ticket. Did any of you gentlemen managed to pick the recent low?


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## VSntchr (22 April 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Has rebounded strongly after the speeding ticket. Did any of you gentlemen managed to pick the recent low?




First lot at 2.86 (tried to ammend order overnight to 2.70 but must have done it incorrectly as I was tired)..

Second lot at 2.70

Tried for a third at 2.50 but didn't get them.

I have wanted in on CDA as a long termer, so one lot is held for this purpose. The other lot I intend to sell on close today and take the quick ~15%


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## finicky (26 May 2013)

Wouldn't mind having another bite if Codan returns to 2.50
Chance of support looks significant there, and if not, stuck with a few more shares in a quality divvy paying  company.

These days I hesitate to mention Skaffold's future valuations as they have no reliability. The stock was upgraded to A1 for the current year on the basis of results for H1 and guidance for H2. Intrinsic values for FYs 13, 14, and 15 are _currently_ 6.57, 5.39, and *4.86*

I stress _current_, the values are ephemeral and blow this way and that on results, outlooks, and which drug the analysts are on. Only 2 analysts are feeding earnings estimates for Codan. Might be of some interest though, and if taking the lowest as a guide - 4.86 for FY15 - suggests share is at a discount. The weak trading might be mostly correcting the rapid rise since September 2012.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Don't think it's likely that the struggling gold price will dampen enthusiasm of prospectors or artisan miners.
The mining technology and communications division is not a big contributor to revenue yet. 
The earnings guidance given in April last year was alerting market to an upgrade. Looking back, there's usually some business update around April but not always? Maybe just nothing to add to guidance given when reporting H1 - "_Second-half profit for FY13 expected to be as strong as first half_"


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## ROE (27 May 2013)

Watch it...go Codan 
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2013/05/27/3766576.htm


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## finicky (27 May 2013)

^^^ Thanks for the link 

As I got it, a Codan employee visiting China uses his laptop via the hotel's wifi and it gets infected with malware that is then transmitted to the company's computers. Now the Chinese have sensitive files about the military radios that Codan makes. A bit confidence sapping.
I vaguely thought they were on top of the detector counterfeiting issue which has been around a while.
With the M.D being restrained in his comments about the hacking and saying it could be a national security issue I wonder how free he feels to discuss any commercial implications.
So possibly _one_ reason for the selling lately.


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## finicky (28 May 2013)

Timely damage control. However McGurk was not overflowing with confidence that they could secure the intellectual property against China during the 4 Cnrs interview. Very honest sounding guy imo.

28 May 2013
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
Security of Intellectual Property

Australian electronics and communications company Codan Limited (ASX: 
CDA) acknowledges that like many international companies and 
governments, the threat posed by third parties trying to access computer 
systems is a real one.

The Company understands that the nature of its products may cause the 
Company to be a target of “hackers”, and as reported in recent years the 
unauthorised manufacture of counterfeit gold detectors in China has 
heightened the Company’s awareness of this matter. 

Strong action has been taken to protect our information against Chinese based counterfeit gold detector manufacturers, which has included the Company implementing processes and controls to protect the computer 
systems that store the Company’s intellectual property.

Mr McGurk, Codan’s Managing Director and CEO, said that the protection of 
the Company’s intellectual property is fundamental to our business, and our 
systems and controls have been designed to defend against this threat.

The establishment of systems to defend against the threat of unauthorised 
third parties gaining access to sensitive intellectual property is an ongoing 
challenge which must continually evolve as “hacking” techniques change and 
increase in sophistication. 

In response to recent media speculation about computer hacking, Mr McGurk 
stated that the Company has no evidence that any intellectual property in 
either its metal detection or communications business has been obtained by 
unauthorised third parties.

Michael Barton
Company Secretary


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## ROE (28 May 2013)

I like the management and its honesty of confonting the problems
I Bought more to celebrate -

they proved to me they are in the league of Flight centre Graham Turner, Dominos Don Meij and Credit corp Simon Calleia


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## Huskar (14 June 2013)

Downgrade to $45m NPAT. Wasn't gold price affecting the SP after all so much as civil unrest.

Always the unknown unknowns!

Still if 25c EPS then 12x P/E not at all unreasonable and $3 at least fair value on back of envelope calculation...


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## skc (14 June 2013)

Huskar said:


> Downgrade to $45m NPAT. Wasn't gold price affecting the SP after all so much as civil unrest.
> 
> Always the unknown unknowns!
> 
> Still if 25c EPS then 12x P/E not at all unreasonable and $3 at least fair value on back of envelope calculation...




Market says $2.30. 

May be they don't believe it's purely due to civil unrests...


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## McLovin (14 June 2013)

skc said:


> Market says $2.30.
> 
> May be they don't believe it's purely due to civil unrests...




Probably doesn't help that they announced it at 3:30 on a Friday.


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## ROE (14 June 2013)

What a shocker .... Dont give out high expectation if there is a chance you wont make it
Maybe management not as good as I think


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## skc (14 June 2013)

skc said:


> Market says $2.30.
> 
> May be they don't believe it's purely due to civil unrests...




Nasty close! It's now $1.90. Doesn't help that it's a thin stock at the best of times.

Probably a bit overdone if civil unrest was indeed the cause.. and I doubt metal detector sales are truely that correlated with the gold price. 

But let's shoot first and ask questions later.


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## McLovin (14 June 2013)

Huskar said:


> Downgrade to $45m NPAT. Wasn't gold price affecting the SP after all so much as civil unrest.
> 
> Always the unknown unknowns!
> 
> Still if 25c EPS then 12x P/E not at all unreasonable and $3 at least fair value on back of envelope calculation...




The market is probably working on the 1H result an outlier. 2H result will be ~$18m, annualised that is only 20c EPS.

Who knows, I need to go back and have a look at what I wrote about them.


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## Ves (14 June 2013)

skc said:


> Market says $2.30.
> 
> May be they don't believe it's purely due to civil unrests...



I'd hate to be cynical,  but civil unrest in Africa isn't exactly a rare thing, is it?

Agree with McLovin about the market annualising the 2nd half earnings rather than the 1st.   First half earnings are well above trend growth and the operating margins are well above anything they had previously achieved.   Almost 10% over average.  

I made a slightly longer post on hotcopper before.  Same gist.


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## Country Lad (14 June 2013)

Exactly the breakout size from the patterns you would be hoping for.  Unfortunately in the wrong direction.  The P&F chart did point to a reasonable downturn.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## VSntchr (14 June 2013)

Based on where we are in the half year it is very hard to gauge revenue/earnings going forward due to the fact that we don't know how long this impact on earnings has been occurring for. If it is really just in the last quarter - then if that is carried on into the next FY...well...you get the picture...

If we look at operating margins on a more historical (and conservative) basis of say 23% going forward, and expect revenue in the area of $200m this year we can then throw out some scenario's....

Revenue for next year could come in at flat. It could come in at -25%, but it likely won't come in much higher. Assuming instant margin compression and a revenue drop of 25% for 13/14 FY I think its worth around $2 - $2.10....

But the flaw with this valuation is that my estimates for revenue are very basic...until we see the full year commentary (quarter on quarter cash flow would be better!), it really is up for anyone to guess...


----------



## skc (14 June 2013)

finicky said:


> These days I hesitate to mention Skaffold's future valuations as they have no reliability. *The stock was upgraded to A1 *for the current year on the basis of results for H1 and guidance for H2. Intrinsic values for FYs 13, 14, and 15 are _currently_ 6.57, 5.39, and *4.86*




I think I've found the reason for the fall.

Waiting for RM to tell us how he's sold at the top 4 months ago.


----------



## VSntchr (14 June 2013)

skc said:


> I think I've found the reason for the fall.
> 
> Waiting for RM to tell us how he's sold at the top 4 months ago.




I knew you'd find the reason for us


----------



## Boggo (14 June 2013)

skc said:


> I think I've found the reason for the fall.
> 
> Waiting for RM to tell us how he's sold at the top 4 months ago.




You may have to resort to charting to stay ahead of the news skc


----------



## ROE (14 June 2013)

skc said:


> I think I've found the reason for the fall.
> 
> Waiting for RM to tell us how he's sold at the top 4 months ago.




Damn it why didn't he tell me 
The curse of over promise and under-delivered, they need to talk to CCP management before and after GFC bungle  on how to keep the market informed 

Still isn't a bad business, the market now need to adjust to their sky high optimism


----------



## finicky (15 June 2013)

> I think I've found the reason for the fall.
> Waiting for RM to tell us how he's sold at the top 4 months ago.




He already sort of has. One of his managers, Tim Kelly, was on Your Money Your Call a couple of weeks ago and responded to a viewer's question about CDA. He said the fund no longer had a position. Also RM has been saying his fund is now only 40% invested and is cashed up. Makes you wonder what fund managers find out in those little tete a tetes they have with company managements.

I bought another 5000 today @2.26 but it was sort of accidental. If it pulls back to 1.50 I might have another nibble

If Codan only manages to perform like this weaker Dec Half over FY14 well that's still about 20c eps, so a 2 buck share price seems very fair value on that scenario. The newish mine communications and technology division and the radio division might start to get some traction late FY14
Who knows though - who's going to be confident in any outlook statement they make now?

As the creaky wheels of Skaffold turn, subscribers might get an downgraded valuation of CDA in a week or so - will report here if that happens. By the way - commonly big differences in Skaffold valuations and those of the RM crowd even though they developed and spruiked the program. They regularly and wildly contradict each other - maybe because the RM group gets a lot of its views from discussions with management? For instance RM and co like SIV, SEK and BGL but you'd  steer well clear of them if following Skaffold 

Glooommm


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## JTLP (17 June 2013)

Looks like a lot of offscreen sellers pushing it down to $1.60 as I type - that's over a 50% drop since the announcement.

Can management be trusted? Is this a knife to be caught?


----------



## VSntchr (17 June 2013)

JTLP said:


> Looks like a lot of offscreen sellers pushing it down to $1.60 as I type - that's over a 50% drop since the announcement.
> 
> Can management be trusted? Is this a knife to be caught?




Based on my rough expectations outlined earlier in this thread I'm in for some at $1.65....but its not going into my core holdings - this is still feeling quite spec until management proves themselves to be trusted/gives some further confirmation that the earnings difficulties are not terminal.

Happy to buy in on this basis at this price.


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## finicky (17 June 2013)

Yes I bought a few more today too @ 1.70, but I'm not at all sure of what I'm doing.

Motley Fool Share Advisor put out a note to subscribers today advising a hold recommendation, down from a buy. They made some good points and unlike me making the rash assumption of the revised H2 profit guidance being repeated over FY14 (my low case), they of course point out that this disappointment has been a Q4 development. suggesting that Q4 profit after tax contribution might be around $5.5m, and if you took that as a base for FY14 you're only looking at NPAT of $22m, or eps of about 12.4c. 

Quote Motley Fool:

"  If next year is poor...

If we assume that the company was having a strong third quarter at the time of the above announcements, and that H2 was expected to be in line with H1, it is reasonable to assume Q3 profit would have been around $13 million. That means Q4's net profit could have conceivably been around $5.5 million. If we take this Q4 result and extrapolate it for all of FY14, that would mean net profit after tax of about $22 million.

At the current market capitalisation of $336 million, that'd give us an FY14 price earnings ratio of around 15.3 times (_@ 1.90_)

If recovery is swift...

On the flipside, if the company can deal with its issues and/or the "instability" is overcome in Q1, we may see an impaired first quarter, and the rest of FY14 return to trend. That might give us around $5.5 million in Q1 of FY14, before returning to the higher profit levels of recent quarters of around $13 million -- for a full year number of about $44 million -- broadly in line with this year.

That'd put the FY14 P/E at 7.6 times (_@ 1.90_)

Of course, neither of the above are absolute outside numbers -- things could deteriorate to a lower profit than the 'poor' outcome outlined above, or growth in other markets could help push profits higher than the 'swift recovery' case."

Also:

"Woefully missing from the announcement are some key details:

What markets, specifically
How many countries
What proportion of sales and profit those countries represent
How long the instability has been impacting sales
How the rest of the company's operations have been performing
When the "government elections" are due
Why the company has confidence that the instability will be resolved

More importantly, management's description of FY14 as "successful" is over-simple, but still tells us what we need to know -- that the company doesn't know enough to be able to predict, with any level of confidence,  the impact on next financial year, despite the upbeat wording."


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## Huskar (18 June 2013)

finicky said:


> Yes I bought a few more today too @ 1.70, but I'm not at all sure of what I'm doing.
> 
> Motley Fool Share Advisor put out a note to subscribers today advising a hold recommendation, down from a buy. . . .




Interesting thanks Finicky.



> Downgrade to $45m NPAT. Wasn't gold price affecting the SP after all so much as civil unrest.
> 
> Always the unknown unknowns!
> 
> Still if 25c EPS then 12x P/E not at all unreasonable and $3 at least fair value on back of envelope calculation...




Boy was I wrong!

And market is probably thinking that downgrades usually come in twos (at the least)...


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## Trainertom16 (18 June 2013)

It seams the share price has tanked because of the lack of quality information in the announcement. As a shareholder I find this a little frustrating.

Iv had a look at the countries CDA sells detectors in and researched which ones seam to be in ‘civil unrest.’ The main countries CDA sell detectors in are:
•	Sudan
•	Guinea
•	Tanzania
•	Cameroon
•	Nigeria
•	Mali

According to the Australian government website ‘Smart Traveller’ the following countries have this warning.
•	Guinea – Do not travel
•	Sudan – Do not travel
•	Tanzania – Exercise a high degree of cation
•	Cameroon – Exercise a high degree of cation
•	Nigeria – Reconsider your need to travel
•	Mali – Do not travel

	From my research the only countries due to have an election soon is: 
•	Guinea -  on the 30th of June 2013. The smart traveller site states “Regular protests are expected in the lead-up to the election, and as a result the security environment remains volatile at this time.” 
•	Mali – July and August 2013. The smart traveler site states, “Demonstrations may occur in the period surrounding the elections.”

Im unsure of how much revenue is made from these countries individually so its very hard to tell what impact the ‘civil unrest’ could cause to their profits long term. The other thing to keep in mind is the fact that many of these countries have experienced ‘civil unrest’ for some time and fighting in many of these countries is nothing new. So has this stopped sales in the past? It seams not…

If your thinking of buying more shares in CDA, I think you need to be confident that the ‘civil unrest’ will calm down as a result of the elections in Mali and Guinea. You also have to be confident that the gold price decline hasn’t slowed down sales, and finally you have to be confidant that sales will expand into areas such as South America as well as continue in Africa into the future.

I think we need more information from CDA on this one…

What do you guys think?


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## Buttsie (18 June 2013)

Trainertom16 said:


> What do you guys think?




I think I wished that I'd not bought this morning at $1.70 

Thanks for the research Trainertom, this proves useful but only serves to raise greater doubt in my mind about the openness of the management. 

PS. First time poster. Great forum guys.


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## finicky (19 June 2013)

Primary research Trainertom16 - a novel approach

Well since no-one has mentioned it I'll add that 5 directors bought on market yesterday the 18th, and two weren't token amounts either:  M.D McGurk added 32,000 shares and Klingner bought 60,000

I had a bid in for some at 1.555 which was same as the last trade but it didn't catch a wave


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## Buttsie (20 June 2013)

Up 10.4% today at time of typing ($1.75). Hoping that CDA continues to recover in the right direction. The director dealings help with my confidence levels. 

Still nervous over the short term though.


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## finicky (10 July 2013)

Added a few more of these back a week or so ago from a bid that I left sitting @ 1.555

Reason I'm posting is that David Buckland of Montgomery fund was on 'Your Money Your Call' tonight and responded to a viewer question on Codan. He thought the correction post the earnings downgrade was overdone and the fund re-entered the stock in the 1.50s, after having sold the whole of a large position prior the announcement in the $3+ range. How nice for them. He said he valued CDA at $2

Skaffold did eventually make a belated adjustment to their valuation of CDA. One of the two analysts covering changed his estimated eps on June 20 by my observation. At least that was when Skaffold registered his new input. That was one weekend and 4 trading days after the downgrade. The other analyst's input stayed the same for so many days that I stopped checking and only noticed today that he's changed. If the estimated eps don't change nor does the Skaffold valuation - and I'm paying $1,330 p.a for this.

Skaffold's estimated eps for FY14 is now 22c with the two analysts inputs within a cent of each other. Only one is forecasting for FY15 and he thinks 27 cps. Valuation now is FY14:$2.97, FY15:$3.53 
Bit of a change there from prior valuation and margin of safety - makes charting look a quite attractive alternative.


----------



## skc (11 July 2013)

finicky said:


> Skaffold did eventually make a belated adjustment to their valuation of CDA. One of the two analysts covering changed his estimated eps on June 20 by my observation. At least that was when Skaffold registered his new input. That was one weekend and 4 trading days after the downgrade. The other analyst's input stayed the same for so many days that I stopped checking and only noticed today that he's changed. If the estimated eps don't change nor does the Skaffold valuation - and I'm paying $1,330 p.a for this.
> 
> Skaffold's estimated eps for FY14 is now 22c with the two analysts inputs within a cent of each other. Only one is forecasting for FY15 and he thinks 27 cps. Valuation now is FY14:$2.97, FY15:$3.53
> Bit of a change there from prior valuation and margin of safety - makes charting look a quite attractive alternative.




Only 2 analyst covering the stock... it feels dangerous to use analyst earning estimates in this instance.

In fact, one might argue it's dangerous to use analyst earning estimates in all situations. This from the AFR today 
http://www.afr.com/p/business/chant...me_clean_as_downgrades_PU7naBrzKEsCL7VP6Bz3CP



> Companies must come clean as downgrades loom
> 
> While EPS growth for the top-300 stocks is tipped to jump to 21.7 per cent in the 2014 financial year, it is safe to say those estimates are too optimistic and vulnerable to downgrades.
> 
> While the mining sector accounted for about a third of the earnings downgrades in recent months, financial services firm AMP, food maker Goodman Fielder and Coca-Cola Amatil was confirmation that bad news is not just confined to mining, media and retail.




Garbage in, garbage out.


----------



## piggybank (12 August 2013)

Update - Weekly


----------



## galumay (22 August 2013)

What have i missed? (Down 20% already today.)


----------



## Ves (22 August 2013)

galumay said:


> What have i missed? (Down 20% already today.)



Their outlook statement suggests that future profitability will most likely mean revert to levels seen in the first half of 2011 and 2012 for 2014.  They seem to be implying that the 2013 result was a bit of a flash in the plan.    Also more and more "seasonal" excuses as to why this may be is not a good look (they even tried to blame Ramadan!).


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## Country Lad (22 August 2013)

galumay said:


> What have i missed? (Down 20% already today.)




It reported today.  Revenue up 36.2%, Profit up 96.2%.

Market must be concentrating on the outlook statements such as:



> The Minelab business remains strong, although the previous record level of gold detector sales into the African market is being temporarily depressed by a number of external factors.
> 
> Our sales can sometimes be volatile.......
> 
> ...




Cheers
Country Lad


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## galumay (22 August 2013)

Country Lad said:


> It reported today.  Revenue up 36.2%, Profit up 96.2%.
> 
> Market must be concentrating on the outlook statements such as:
> 
> ...




OK, I had read the AP and didnt see it as warranting that sort of effect! 

I took it as an opportunity to enter a share that has been on my watch list for a while, I missed the last opportunity, but in this time at 1.85.


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## skc (22 August 2013)

Sometimes it feels like the market has the memory of a goldfish. The last 6 months has been shocking by CDA from a disclosure point of view. They said nothing is going on when the share price first started to fall, only to reveal later that profit would be down. They even blamed civil unreset in Africa (which is nothing new), yet now they are just saying that FY13 was an abnormal peak. 

So going forward earnings would be around $20-24m? This makes today's price about right imo.


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## McLovin (22 August 2013)

I sold at about $1.60, for a small profit, a bit after that downgrade came through (in hindsight I should have sold when it was over $3). I didn't see how it was sustainable and I had a better use for the cash. For a while the SP kind of ran away again over $2 but the outlook statement confirmed what I thought when the initial downgrade happened, that this was a big outlier unlikely to be repeated.


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## skc (22 August 2013)

McLovin said:


> I sold at about $1.60, for a small profit, a bit after that downgrade came through (in hindsight I should have sold when it was over $3). I didn't see how it was sustainable and I had a better use for the cash. For a while the SP kind of ran away again over $2 but the outlook statement confirmed what I thought when the initial downgrade happened, that this was a big outlier unlikely to be repeated.




Hey you are still alive! A few people missed you...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...&page=6&p=790038&highlight=members#post790038


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## McLovin (22 August 2013)

skc said:


> Hey you are still alive! A few people missed you...
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...&page=6&p=790038&highlight=members#post790038




Oh yeah, a nice Summer break in Spain/France.


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## Huskar (22 August 2013)

Could be the massive jump in inventories from $12m (7.5% of sales) to $43m (18% of sales).

Never a good sign.


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## ROE (22 August 2013)

Ouch hammer market didn't like outlook still hold for yield cos I got them cheap average wise..
It was an exciting ride for a while


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## finicky (26 August 2013)

Here's a link for the Russell Muldoon particle at Roger Montgomery's blog. You can read it yourself of course but in summary he suspects management is now erring on the side of caution in expressing its outlook, and he draws an inference from the company stating that it takes seriously its progressive payout of at least 50% earnings as dividends. From that he infers that FY14 will be at least 13c dividend implying 26c eps! Paraphrased, but I think that's what he was saying as I haven't gone back to reread it.

So I wonder if anyone here added a few more during this plunge? I did @ 2.26, 1.70, 1.56 during the June setback, but felt too full to indulge this time. I would probably add if something tripped the price down to 1.50. Support held well at 1.75 last two trading days.
It was a pretty good argument for adding between 1.75-1.80 given the upcoming 7c dividend and the pretty sure divs in FY14 amounting to a good 13 mth yield

Skaffold has drastically lowered its valuation for FY14 but who cares what they think? Intrinsic value of only *1.52* for FY14 and *2.32* FY15. They've been all over the joint valuing CDA in the last 6 months or so. The two analysts feeding the earnings estimate in for Skaffold's valuation seem just reactive rather than prophetic at all. They are pretty united now in their estimate of 15-16c eps for FY14, but more varied 19-22c eps FY15.  I give them almost no credence now.

A GOLD RUSH FOR CODAN?
August 26, 2013 BY RUSSELL MULDOON    
Montgomery Fund
http://rogermontgomery.com/a-gold-rush-for-codan/


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## galumay (11 September 2013)

Wonder what the bad news is this time! Its down over 10% the last couple of days.


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## Ves (25 October 2013)

Looks like management is still trying to talk themselves and the companies prospects up in the AGM,   although,  it does appear that it is losing it's lustre (as it always does) when the market realises that the company is really a lot more cyclical (and not defensive) as it previously thought.

Profit guidance 1H2014 is $10m.  But it could go $3m *either way.*  I'm not even sure why they bothered giving guidance.  It seems like it's such a moving target with this company - very hard to get an idea of their long-term prospects  (communications looks like it is in a tailspin to me,  and the Minelab business hinges on everything going right politically and socially in Africa).


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## VSntchr (10 December 2013)

The SP action had been leading the downgrade which is on the way today (in a trading halt pending announcement).

It really has been noticeable to see the difference in good and bad management of certain companies over the past 12 months.
Pretty easy to go back and look at companies like CDA which are consistently misleading investors (CIX is another good example)...pretty hard to invest on a LT fundamental basis when you cannot trust those running your investment. I've learnt to make this one of my top criterion for getting out - as soon as I get a whiff of untrustworthy management...I am gone like the wind..


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## skc (10 December 2013)

VSntchr said:


> The SP action had been leading the downgrade which is on the way today (in a trading halt pending announcement).
> 
> It really has been noticeable to see the difference in good and bad management of certain companies over the past 12 months.
> Pretty easy to go back and look at companies like CDA which are consistently misleading investors (CIX is another good example)...pretty hard to invest on a LT fundamental basis when you cannot trust those running your investment. I've learnt to make this one of my top criterion for getting out - as soon as I get a whiff of untrustworthy management...I am gone like the wind..




Who says you can't find repeatable patterns in charts...





P.S. Agree with CIX. Forecast guidance was reaffirmed a few times before they came out with the truth. Management was either lying or ignorant or both...


----------



## So_Cynical (10 December 2013)

skc said:


> Who says you can't find repeatable patterns in charts...
> 
> View attachment 55757




The volume spikes are trending down to...long term seller exhaustion?


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## Grumpyoldman (11 December 2013)

Hi
I am still holding Codan  -currently taking a bath.
Any suggestions?




finicky said:


> Here's a link for the Russell Muldoon particle at Roger Montgomery's blog. You can read it yourself of course but in summary he suspects management is now erring on the side of caution in expressing its outlook, and he draws an inference from the company stating that it takes seriously its progressive payout of at least 50% earnings as dividends. From that he infers that FY14 will be at least 13c dividend implying 26c eps! Paraphrased, but I think that's what he was saying as I haven't gone back to reread it.
> 
> So I wonder if anyone here added a few more during this plunge? I did @ 2.26, 1.70, 1.56 during the June setback, but felt too full to indulge this time. I would probably add if something tripped the price down to 1.50. Support held well at 1.75 last two trading days.
> It was a pretty good argument for adding between 1.75-1.80 given the upcoming 7c dividend and the pretty sure divs in FY14 amounting to a good 13 mth yield
> ...


----------



## VSntchr (11 December 2013)

Grumpyoldman said:


> Hi
> I am still holding Codan  -currently taking a bath.
> Any suggestions?




Remember back to the day you bought and ask yourself - what was it that made you buy.

Now zoom back to the present, does that reason still stand? What has changed? If you answer this question you will have a better understanding of what to do.

If you didnt own the shares, would you buy today?


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## Valued (11 December 2013)

It looks like a trading halt until tomorrow. If there is a panic sell on the back of a bad announcement it might be something worth while to pick up.


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## skc (11 December 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> The volume spikes are trending down to...long term seller exhaustion?




Wait till the volume spike upon re-open...


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## finicky (11 December 2013)

Grumpyoldman said:


> Hi
> I am still holding Codan  -currently taking a bath.
> Any suggestions?




Sorry I rabbited on about this one now. I'm still in with all our shares and losing now from an average of around 1.60 at a guess. I've no idea of how it will be hit tomorrow but I'll be there peering at the ASX Price Sensitive Announcements well before the market opens. You can watch it here on the front page if you're of that mind:
http://www.asx.com.au/

No point worrying, the die is cast and personally I'm open to the option of adding if the shares are being 'thrown away'. That'll be a very subjective judgement, but I'm not fussy, just a tiny profit forecast for first half and expectation of H2 improvement will do me now in my humbled mood. Nothing tomorrow will make me sell, put it that way.

I'm telling myself that this has always been a quality company even though it has performed badly during a few years. It has turned a profit and paid a dividend every year of of the past ten.

GLAH


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## ROE (12 December 2013)

Load up at open 67c yeah .... Sold close to $2 not long ago


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## finicky (12 December 2013)

So Low of 63c since open on unprecedented daily volume with 1 hr of trading

I got up late!

$4m to $5m NPAT guidance H1

Take lower figure

If assume dismal performance repeated H2

Then $8m spread acros 177m shares

eps = 4.5c

Assume things will not radically improve in future years but not get worse ...

Apply P/E of 8

8 x 4.5 = 36c per share

The market's being generous! Paying a premium for growth prospects from this level of profit?


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## Valued (12 December 2013)

finicky said:


> So Low of 63c since open on unprecedented daily volume with 1 hr of trading
> 
> I got up late!
> 
> ...




If gold mining is disrupted in Africa right now due to unrest etc the gold isn't going anywhere. It's just postponing the level of gold detection devices that will later be needed.

I also don't think P/E is a good way to value a company. You're just hoping the market pays enough attention to P/E and bases it's decisions on that ratio. I don't think this is true.


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## finicky (12 December 2013)

Valued said:


> *You're just hoping* the market pays enough attention to P/E and bases it's decisions on that ratio.




I use P/E for a rough look. It took me a couple of minutes while I was deciding whether to jump in. I'm not hoping for a lower price, I'm holding what for me are a lot of shares


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## Valued (12 December 2013)

finicky said:


> I use P/E for a rough look. It took me a couple of minutes while I was deciding whether to jump in. I'm not hoping for a lower price, I'm holding what for me are a lot of shares




I guess. The thing with P/E ratios is it's an indicator of perhaps what people may pay for a certain stock or a certain sector but it doesn't really tell you about the value of the company. There is cause and effect and I think P/E is the effect. I don't really like it that much. I think 36c as a target for this stock would be significantly undervalued. Of course, if you think gold detector sales will fall drastically then the stock would not be worth anything to you.

By the way, I should point out, that I don't really know that much about this company. I have never owned shares in it before today. It just looked like a sweet day trade. It's a shame I didn't have much money to put in. I hate when people owe me money and don't pay on time, costs me more than they realise. I bought at 0.67 though, so far so good


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## Valued (12 December 2013)

Out at 0.80 for a 15.6% profit after brokerage. Sellers were picking up a lot of volume and once I hit 0.84 I set a stop loss at 0.80 since I figured if it dropped that low 0.80 wouldn't act as support just looking at the market depth but at the same time the price could continue to bounce upwards. Buyer's volume was pretty thin at that price range compared to the sellers though. Unfortunately, a new buyer did not come along. I don't think the stock will close any higher than 0.80 today. Time will tell if I should have made more money but I think I got out at the right time. Since we are down to 0.785 the 0.80 mark was no support like I predicted so I think I made the right choice


----------



## Valued (12 December 2013)

I was wrong. It closed half a cent higher! Ah well, I think I will sleep tonight anyway


----------



## jancha (12 December 2013)

Valued said:


> I was wrong. It closed half a cent higher! Ah well, I think I will sleep tonight anyway




Ah but what will tomorrow bring?
Look how OZL finished.


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## Valued (12 December 2013)

jancha said:


> Ah but what will tomorrow bring?
> Look how OZL finished.




It's true that the stock may go up tomorrow. It may also go down. At the point of time I sold I thought that the price was going to go down. 0.80 looked like it was serving as support for a little while this morning (after serving as a resistance before that - which you can see on commsec course of sales) but then the market depth for that support was poor. The buyers had very little volume in the 0.79 - 0.8x range compared with the seller's volume. The only thing that could have saved the support falling was a large buyer of a good volume (maybe 50k or so) but I wasn't going to bank on that happening so I sold. I was correct that it did fall below 0.80c but then over the course of of three more hours it bounced back to 0.805. I couldn't have known about the half cent at the time making my decision to sell a correct one. 

If it looks like the price will trend upwards tomorrow there is no reason why I can't buy again anyway. I doubt I will though. I only like to day trade if I get to buy in at around fair value where a stock is likely to bounce back or trend upwards that will exceed a 5% return. I thought CDA was trading at approximately fair value at 0.67 given their reduced forecasts. I now think the stock is overvalued so I am cautious.


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## jancha (13 December 2013)

Valued said:


> It's true that the stock may go up tomorrow. It may also go down. At the point of time I sold I thought that the price was going to go down. 0.80 looked like it was serving as support for a little while this morning (after serving as a resistance before that - which you can see on commsec course of sales) but then the market depth for that support was poor. The buyers had very little volume in the 0.79 - 0.8x range compared with the seller's volume. The only thing that could have saved the support falling was a large buyer of a good volume (maybe 50k or so) but I wasn't going to bank on that happening so I sold. I was correct that it did fall below 0.80c but then over the course of of three more hours it bounced back to 0.805. I couldn't have known about the half cent at the time making my decision to sell a correct one.
> 
> If it looks like the price will trend upwards tomorrow there is no reason why I can't buy again anyway. I doubt I will though. I only like to day trade if I get to buy in at around fair value where a stock is likely to bounce back or trend upwards that will exceed a 5% return. I thought CDA was trading at approximately fair value at 0.67 given their reduced forecasts. I now think the stock is overvalued so I am cautious.




Good reasoning's for your decision on selling at that point. I was a little concerned also when it started falling from the 80c support but happier when it closed at 80.5c. Sold at 89.5c today but I must admit I was taking a bit of a gamble not selling at the point when you did.


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## Valued (13 December 2013)

jancha said:


> Good reasoning's for your decision on selling at that point. I was a little concerned also when it started falling from the 80c support but happier when it closed at 80.5c. Sold at 89.5c today but I must admit I was taking a bit of a gamble not selling at the point when you did.




Yea. I didn't expect the market to run that far today. I missed the morning open. I am in Qld so open is at 9am and it took me to 9:12am to log on and by that time it was already up a fair bit. I wish I was able to get in at 8:55am to see how things looked and maybe jumped on again for a quick return. 

I think it has to fall below 0.80 though again. Given their forecasts for next year the stock is not worth what it's currently selling at. I don't see how the market is so bullish about this company from a value perspective. I suspect a lot of people are averaging down instead of cutting their loss. I think it will take some years for the company to bounce back. They arn't even putting their new detector on the market until 2015 and it's targeted at the retail market so it's hard to predict sales. 

I was always bearish on this one though. I thought gold detectors and radios seemed like a rather sketchy business to begin with which is why I never invested. I like businesses where I can walk in and see the lines of customers buying products and services that make sense in my mind for them to buy.


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## So_Cynical (20 February 2014)

Valued said:


> I think it has to fall below 0.80 though again. Given their forecasts for next year the stock is not worth what it's currently selling at.




Traded at 0.79 today...still profitable and a solid little niche business, debt is up a bit but costs are down.

Double bottom coming up?


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## galumay (20 February 2014)

I hold - and my entry was a long way north of where it is now. Perhaps oddly, I am not too concerned, i reckon they are around their IV at 80c given the current state of their business, the results delivered today where well and truly flagged in advance so there were no surprises for me.

The next 12 months will be critical to the future of the company I believe, they are still in reasonable shape if they can turn the business around and increase earnings again, I dont mind holding companies like this where I can see a potential improvement and I think they have reached the bottom of a cyclic market while keeping their heads above water. (Well, i dont mind holding one company like this! wouldnt want too many more in the portfolio!)


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## Ves (21 February 2014)

Is it just me or does that debt on the balance sheet stand out like a sore thumb?

It would be a real problem if the most recent CDA profitability slide isn't a cyclical down turn, but a return to normality and the prior years of higher profitability were outliers / aberrations.

Even if the answer lies somewhere in between,  the chances of a liquidity event (ie. a capital raising) are probably much higher than they were 12 months ago.


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## VSntchr (21 February 2014)

Debt needs to be refinanced this year too...


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## skc (21 February 2014)

VSntchr said:


> Debt needs to be refinanced this year too...




It's being priced by the market like a capital raising is coming.

$6.5m cash, $20m receivables, $43m inventory vs $15m payables and $71m debt.

Operating cash flow -$16.9m vs +$22.8m a year ago, plus another $10m outflow for investing. 

If they could reduce production (I have no idea how varable their production profile is) and clear some inventory and pay down the debt... May be they should have just put the dividend on hold. It's always sad to see some management attempts to keep up with appearance rathen than accepting it's time to conserve a bit of cash.


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## systematic (21 February 2014)

Possible 'value trap' (and therefore 'avoid') for mine, and that's before today's performance.


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## So_Cynical (21 February 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> Double bottom coming up?




Yesterday i raised the possibility and today it almost came true, 52 week low (the 1st Bottom) was 0.63c

Still a great little business and now we get a chance to get in cheap before the next POG run up.


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## tinhat (21 February 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> Still a great little business and now we get a chance to get in cheap before the next POG run up.




... starting sometime around 2030.


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## So_Cynical (21 February 2014)

tinhat said:


> ... starting sometime around 2030.




Some would say that the next run has started...double bottom $1190 is in.


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## tinhat (21 February 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> Some would say that the next run has started...double bottom $1190 is in.




I'm also hopeful that we are seeing a correction in the price of gold as I am currently holding SLR and MML. But who knows how long it will last and what the outlook is? Gold might settle into a trading range between $1200-$1400 in the medium term. It might go lower and we will see mines getting mothballed all over the globe and little exploration. Who knows. That's the problem with being in an industry that is leveraged to the underlying commodity especially at the exploration end of the industry.

Is there anything about the fundamentals, industry outlook, or the chart that suggests this stock is at or near the bottom? 12/12/13 does have a look of capitulation to it. I don't follow it and don't know it in detail.


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## So_Cynical (21 February 2014)

tinhat said:


> Is there anything about the fundamentals, industry outlook, or the chart that suggests this stock is at or near the bottom? 12/12/13 does have a look of capitulation to it. I don't follow it and don't know it in detail.




They make metal detectors that are sold predominantly to people looking for gold in one form or another, therefore their fortunes are linked to POG movement and sentiment....pick bottom for POG and buy Codan at close to the low point and wait.

Personally i sold out of Gold stocks about 2 years ago..figured the top was in about 6 months before the actual top...go figure.


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## ROE (24 February 2014)

Current price worth a shot ... It operates in a Niche market and the other business need a bit of time to pick up speed ... Probably over sold in my opinion...


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## pixel (7 April 2014)

ROE said:


> Current price worth a shot ... It operates in a Niche market and the other business need a bit of time to pick up speed ... Probably over sold in my opinion...




Agree, ROE;
while still below the falling trendline, my scanner picked it up this morning, noting the strengthening volume and Bullish Divergence in the momentum window.





Alert set for break above 72c.


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## Huskar (25 February 2015)

Good result this year if you ask me - bloated inventory swell has been reversed and revenues steady while margins up.


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## Ves (25 February 2015)

Huskar said:


> Good result this year if you ask me - bloated inventory swell has been reversed and revenues steady while margins up.



Hmm,  had another look at the balance sheet.   Debt up again,   and still at worrying levels.   They're not generating any cash flow to reduce it after capex and product development.  But they are still paying a dividend even though free cash flow is negative!

Also negative net tangible assets again.

P & L statement -   why are product development costs capitalised?   Makes a massive difference to the bottom line  (it's barely profitable if you include them).

Same old story.   Spend a heap of money developing a new product,  hopefully sell a heap at top price with healthy margins for a few periods,  competition comes in,  cycle also changes, and margins erode.  Back to square one,  rinse repeat.   It's a tough gig. Cyclical,  lumpy earnings.

It's not my type of play.... but if they produce a good result over the next few halves it is possible that some investors may get excited,  and there will be a good ramp in there,  probably by the same people as last time that are armed with silly valuation formulas that extrapolate growth to the moon.


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## JTLP (18 August 2015)

Been given a fair old whack the last few days. I believe their FY results are due out tomorrow.
Nobody would know anything in advance though


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## Wyatt (29 August 2016)

So is this false breakout the start of a down trend or is there still hope for CDA in the short term?


Opinions please


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## galumay (29 August 2016)

Wyatt said:


> So is this false breakout the start of a down trend or is there still hope for CDA in the short term?
> 
> 
> Opinions please





Wyatt, no idea what the squiggly lines tell you about the past, but from a FA point of view Codan is a good little turn around story. I havent crunched the figures from their AR yet, but even a glance tells me that the IV will be significantly higher once I do. On that basis there is likely a gap between value and price at the moment. Will post back when I have finished my analysis for this year.


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## McLovin (31 August 2016)

CDA is an interesting way to play the gold price although it's a bit dirtier than buying a gold producer with product cycles thrown into the mix as well, at least IMHO. When gold is going up, sales of their metal detectors boom, and when it's going down the reverse happens. I've been in it since the start of the year and am happy to let the earnings momentum carry it for the time being. This is a take no prisoners sort of stock though, just look what happened to it in 2013 when the gold price crashed.


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## galumay (1 September 2016)

McLovin said:


> CDA is an interesting way to play the gold price although it's a bit dirtier than buying a gold producer with product cycles thrown into the mix as well, at least IMHO. When gold is going up, sales of their metal detectors boom, and when it's going down the reverse happens. I've been in it since the start of the year and am happy to let the earnings momentum carry it for the time being. This is a take no prisoners sort of stock though, just look what happened to it in 2013 when the gold price crashed.




2013 there were some other significant issues at play, so you should be able to avoid that sort of fall in the business health going forward. They are also managing to diversify the business with growth in the mining safety division and the defence sector. 

I bought in too early, but that is a mistake I am happy to make when I get the overall decision to buy correct.


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## ROE (1 September 2016)

McLovin said:


> CDA is an interesting way to play the gold price although it's a bit dirtier than buying a gold producer with product cycles thrown into the mix as well, at least IMHO. When gold is going up, sales of their metal detectors boom, and when it's going down the reverse happens. I've been in it since the start of the year and am happy to let the earnings momentum carry it for the time being. This is a take no prisoners sort of stock though, just look what happened to it in 2013 when the gold price crashed.




Counterfeit play some part in that fall but they have since address that problem with security chip
I think it a cheap industrial and people are weary of the repeat of 2013 but I think the chance of that happen again probably less than 50% .

I still hold and momentum is looking good with earning and everything else around it.


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## McLovin (25 November 2016)

Sold out this morning. In the $1.80s it was too good to pass up, and I guess 200% in 11 months was also a nice round number . Nice sugar hit for the first half from GPZ 7000 sales, but the second half will be $8m-$12m, although reading between the lines it looks like they're expecting it to be around $10m.


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## Boggo (20 December 2016)

Just wondering what may have spooked this today, someone offloading ?

(click to expand)


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## kid hustlr (20 December 2016)

Chart doesn't have todays bar.

Bit of a beating 

I hold


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## JTLP (20 December 2016)

Boggo said:


> Just wondering what may have spooked this today, someone offloading ?
> 
> (click to expand)




It ran pretty hard and for some reason popped into the 2.10 - 2.20 range? Profit taking perhaps...


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## galumay (23 February 2017)

WOW! Kaboom!! I feel a bit of deja vu, but hopefully the cycle doesnt come around again. Special div is a nice bonus. I bought in too soon but i dont mind errors of timing nearly as much as errors of ommission! Close to another multibagger for me now.


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## galumay (17 May 2017)

Another very bright market outlook upgrade today, target raised to $44m for FY NPAT. Will be interesting to look at the full story come the end of year results, there is plenty of cyclical risk around CDA but I do like how the business is run and I suspect it will be better positioned when next there is a significant downturn in the detector sector of the business.


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## galumay (22 February 2018)

A solid bump in the SP today, up nearly 10%, HY results were in line with expectations, I guess the deal with Catapiller must have attracted some buyers too. Nearly another double bagger for me, I got too early, but averaged down and have ridden it out.


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## galumay (18 May 2018)

Another nice little run up today, nearly 10% and nudging $3. Another positive trading update and a new contract in the mining division. This is now my best performer in the personal portfolio, I just wish I had averaged down more after I bought in a bit early!


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## finicky (29 July 2018)

^^^
Been a surprising recovery hasn't it? Anyone interested in the company could have a browse back over this thread to get sobered up.

Pretty unpredictable business but they're trying to diversify and even out the earnings. I'm a bit excited though by the baby Minetec division which I think it's fair to claim has been advancing in big strides in 2018 - the contract with BHP's Olympic Dam and the alliance with Caterpillar. My vibe is that the Caterpillar deal makes the Minetec arm eligible for the obscure phrase " .. it has a long runway ahead of it". How many underground hard rock  mines in tbe world might be forced to follow suit?

Caterpillar and Minetec Shine a Light on Underground Operations


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## finicky (29 July 2018)

*

CAT Deal*

In Feb’18 Minetec entered into an exclusive deal with Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) to integrate its underground mining technology solution with CAT’s ‘*Minestar*’ product.

The partnership with CAT provides an opportunity to accelerate the path-to-market of CDA’s UG mining technology, by leveraging CAT’s network of 172 dealers across 190 countries.

UG mining software solutions are strategically important for CAT given it can assist in generating “iron” sales (trucks, machinery) which are more at the core of CAT’s business.

The revenue model for CDA as part of the deal will be structured under a profit-share arrangement, whereby CDA and CAT share in the margin generated by the Minestar product’s sale. *CDA is entitled to at least 50% of the profit margin on sale of the Minestar product.*

While the deal is exclusive to CAT (i.e. CDA cannot partner with a competitor to integrate its product into theirs), *it does not interfere with CDA selling its own Minetec product* (i.e. as distinct from the integrated Minestar product) directly to customers, as evidenced by the recently announced BHP deal.

CDA is currently working with CAT to roll out this process and will roll out the integrated Minestar product across a live mine setting in WA (scheduled for *2H FY18*), in order to eliminate any bugs/issues before taking the product to market ~1H FY19.

CAT has first right of refusal to acquire Minetec should it be sold.


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## finicky (21 August 2018)

I don't count this as a positive but fwiw the R Montgomery cult is onto Codan and in this clip one of the crew opines that the current valuation is justified by the metal detector and radio divisions alone and Minetec is thrown in for free. Who knows though in a year or so the company might have a setback and Montgomery will be saying they foresaw it and got out early.
https://rogermontgomery.com/?s=Codan

20 August


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## peter2 (21 August 2018)

After trading sideways between 2.00 - 2.50 for more than a year, price went to 3.00. 
The daily chart shows price jumped up after a profit upgrade in May18. Since then price has drifted sideways with a little profit taking (distribution). The last three days volume has been well above average and this looks bullish. Interesting.


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## galumay (21 August 2018)

Its coming up to reporting time @peter2 they will very likely have a very strong result exceeding guidance so I think the strength is a reflection of the fundamentals at play. Still the best performer in my personal portfolio, a multi bagger that could have been even better if I had averaged down more when it was below $1


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## barney (21 August 2018)

I normally watch Stocks under 10 cents but this looks interesting … Positive Chart action  Thanks for the heads up chaps.


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## Trav. (18 November 2018)

Looks like a nice break out @ $3.10 closing at $3.14

It will be interesting to see if it can reach Septembers high of $3.39


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## galumay (26 August 2019)

Another stellar set of numbers from CDA, such a good little business now. 

Highlights:


  Record sales of $271 million


  Record statutory net profit after tax of $45.7 million


  Annual dividend of 9.0 cents, fully franked (interim 4.0, final 5.0)


  Annual special dividend of 5.0 cents, fully franked (interim 2.5, final 2.5)


  Base-business sales re-rated to $200-220 million, up from $180-200 million


  Base-business NPAT re-rated to $28-33 million, up from $25-30 million


  Strong balance sheet continues – $37.5 million net cash


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## JTLP (26 August 2019)

I got out with a 10% profit after recovering my cost base following a tumultuous few years. A few dollars too early [emoji2957]


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## rnr (20 January 2020)

On Dec 18th, 2019 Codan announced an upgraded forecast half-year profit from $26 million to $30 million an increase in the order of approx. 15.38%.
Price subsequently moved up by around 25.7% and has now closed for the day at an increase of some 10.88% based on the an opening price of $6.80 on the announcement date.
Is price going to head lower or is this a pullback opportunity and hence a time to BUY?


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## galumay (20 January 2020)

Its had a stellar run up, but in this frothy top of the bull market, I have no doubt it could run quite a lot higher. It does have the advantage of being an actual profitable business unlike half the stonks on the ASX! 

Wish I had kept buying this falling knife when i chased it down to 65c. Also wish I had added as it recovered since!!


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## finicky (17 June 2020)

CDA $85m net cash and guiding to record NPAT despite Wuhan pandemic

17 June 2020
COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENTS PLATFORM
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES EXCHANGE

*Trading Update and Cash Position*

In our last trading update, we disclosed that our sales were down 20% in April against our
record first-half run rates. At the time, our Malaysian-based contract manufacturers were
operating at lower capacities due to COVID-19 restrictions.
In early May, the Malaysian Government removed restrictions on their manufacturing sector.
Since then our supply partners have increased their production capacity and are now
supplying product at pre-pandemic levels.

Demand has remained strong for our metal detectors across both our recreational and gold
mining markets, and May was a particularly strong month for our Communications business,
with a $7 million project delivered by our Tactical Comunications division. As a result, the
group had a record sales month in May and has returned to operating at similar levels to the
record first-half run rate.

Cash generation has been excellent, and the balance sheet has further strengthened to circa
$85 million net cash.

Although we continue to operate in very uncertain times, Codan will deliver a record profit this
year in the order of $63 million net profit after tax


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## galumay (17 June 2020)

Such a good little business.


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## frugal.rock (13 August 2020)

Picked up some CDA today. 
With the price of gold heading skywards, and high levels of unemployment, Minelab metal detectors should be in demand again. 
They are the best gold detectors in the world. Pricey too, with good resale value.

A longer term play which may need up to 12 months to mature. 
With government spending on defence also, hopefully Codan benefit out of that, somehow.
Cheers.


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## galumay (13 August 2020)

Its a very well run little business @frugal.rock - I reckon its over valued at current prices, but in this market it probably can run a bit harder.
(i hold, and am not selling.)


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## finicky (14 August 2020)

I regretfully have sold 3/4 of mine due to my belief in an incoming general market crash (after a short melt-up). Codan was my biggest holding. I too felt it was over valued at current earnings but because of growth potential maybe not. The metal detector sales environment couldn't be better.

It's tried investors' patience but I still have low level optimism for its Minetec division - I thought the Caterpillar alliance would be transformative but I sense from Codan's M.D's comments that Caterpillar has been dragging its feet. Maybe it's just tying up the tech to exclude rivals. Old news but BHP has been giving the system a trial at Olympic Dam.

A short promo for Minetec
https://www.minetec.com.au


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## frugal.rock (17 August 2020)

Codan on the move?
Up 9.6% ATM at $9.04 with no reason to hand.
Is there a good dividend in the mix?
A bit of wait and see I guess.


finicky said:


> I regretfully have sold 3/4 of mine



Usually my situation. 
Sell, price goes up.


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## finicky (17 August 2020)

Chances look good for a close at an all time high today? Volume fairly good for before luncheon.





	

		
			
		

		
	
 .


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## galumay (17 August 2020)

Nearly a 10 bagger for me after todays bump, maybe attracting the gold bugs??


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## frugal.rock (20 August 2020)

FY20 SUMMARY
• Highest full-year profit in the company’s history.
• Record Metal Detection and Communications sales
• Annual dividend of 18.5 cents, fully franked
• Strong balance sheet continues - $93 million net cash
• Invested in excess of $30 million in product development

Dividend of 11 cent announced also.
SP has hit all-time record high of $10.10 this morning... over 12% up today... (I'm out... )
Go-dan.


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## finicky (20 August 2020)

This is like getting divorced and watching your ex go on to runaway success, crap.
Good chart read @frugal.rock - I assume that had something to do with it.
A few panels from the preso - one about the Minetec division. Minetec ran at a loss but is only 2% of Codan's revenue. Does seem to be getting more traction with its tracking system now going live at BHP's Olympic Dam and its 'Minestar' collaboration with Caterpillar operative at a big block cave mine in Indonesia and included in a hardware order from Newmont at its Tanami Gold mine.


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## frugal.rock (20 August 2020)

finicky said:


> Good chart read @frugal.rock - I assume that had something to do with it.



I plead the 5th... 
And learning more everyday...


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## finicky (23 September 2020)

Fy20 annual report in from Codan
Selling most of my holding in this too early has cost me a small fortune. Sold roughly 3/4 of my holding before a big $3 impulse rally. I blame @DaveHcontrarian on twitter for panicking me about the global deflationary bust 
One disappointment for me in the report was the small Minetec division which was written down for $7.5m of redundant R&D. Looks like its now down to just the collaboration with Caterpillar.

Held


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## Dona Ferentes (23 September 2020)

finicky said:


> Fy20 annual report in from Codan
> Selling most of my holding in this too early has cost me a small fortune. Sold roughly 3/4 of my holding before a big $3 impulse rally. I blame @DaveHcontrarian on twitter for panicking me about the global deflationary bust
> 
> Held



Thanks for the honesty .... is the next contrarian indicator when you change this narrative;_  "If I talk positively on any stock it comes with the caveat that I expect a second and deeper market crash soon. I have been liquidating shares and any buy will be a rare individual exception "_?

(you don't have to answer)


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## galumay (23 September 2020)

Also interested! Let us know when you buy back in Finicky!! Seriously though, its one of the toughest parts of investing I reckon, hanging on to businesses that run well past ones range of intrinsic value. Thankfully i still have most of my CDA despite the huge run.


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## finicky (23 September 2020)

@Dona Ferentes yeah, if I changed it that would be a giant sell signal if that's your meaning.
Still going with the @DaveHcontrarian prophesy but know now his dates are wobbly. Latest phrasing is melt up going into the election for potus.
Still like wearing a ballistic vest in the hood feeling with some cash in the bank


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## finicky (23 September 2020)

@galumay I will be fully reinvested in CDA if there's a crash. Selling CDA was purely a matter of it being my largest position and I wanted defensive cash. Otherwise it was a sort of forever hold, great little company as you know.


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## frugal.rock (23 September 2020)

finicky said:


> Otherwise it was a sort of forever hold, great little company as you know.



I love the romantic attachment.
So sweet! lol.

What codan needs is a guv military contract or 2... USA. 
That would be a catalyst for a 
 push to $20, in my opinion only.
Not holding.


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## over9k (23 September 2020)

alright finicky you've convinced me to put it on the watch list. what's your next move?


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## finicky (23 September 2020)

@over9k 
Mine? Wait .. it might be months before I buy seriously again.. the bent is to more selling. Not CDA though,  lol
I have put in a bid for 20,000 Venus Metals (VMC) @21c though fwiw. Punt on recent drilling results and very close nearology to Ramelius's Penny West.
I'm no trader though mate, best look to flighty promiscuous types like @frugal.rock for that, he took a well timed chomp out of CDA around where I sold. I hold onto stocks for like decades.


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## frugal.rock (23 September 2020)

finicky said:


> I'm no trader though mate, best look to flighty promiscuous types like @frugal.rock



Flighty and promiscuous?
Flighty yes, it preserves profit and reduces losses.
Promiscuous?
You should be flogged with a cat o 9 tails for the offence and consider yourself let off lightly....


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## galumay (23 September 2020)

finicky said:


> Otherwise it was a sort of forever hold, great little company as you know.




Yup, I am hearing ya. The parcel I sold was to release some cash for a project, I sold at $6.73, but in hindsight I should have borrowed the money and kept the CDA shares! Thankfully I still have a substantial holding which is certainly in the forever hold category.


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## Dona Ferentes (16 December 2020)

_Strong demand for metal detectors has encouraged Codan to raise guidance for its first half profit by 33 per cent.  The company had guided to a half year profit of $30 million at its annual general meeting in October but now expects $40 million despite its tactical communications business being "significantly" down on a record first half in the 2020 financial year._

_The company said there is strong market anticipation about the launch of its new feature-packed detector in the third quarter and its communications business will enter the second half with an order book in excess of $30 million. Both will contribute to a "strong" full year result._


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## finicky (16 December 2020)

Behind @Dona Ferentes but I won't waste my post. Metal detectors going great, tactical communications (radios) not so good - not this HY anyway.
Up 5% today with a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart, if it holds, but I am sceptical that CDA will soon regain the ground above $10.50 support/resistance - still richly valued imo.
One of the best four stocks I have invested in - I sold ~2/3rds of my holding months ago @ ~8.50 to cash up for a crash but will hold the rest come what may.

*Daily*


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## galumay (16 December 2020)

It will be interesting to see how much of the revenue is the result of Covid once things return to normal. Like you @finicky I think its significantly over priced now, but I have no intention of selling any more.


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## finicky (5 January 2021)

Misread the  momentum of CDA as it blew through 10.50 without delay. Seems to be coming out of a  pennant today, albeit on small volume, and might be heading for its recent ATH. I assume its is benefitting from moves in the gold price (gold detectors) but that's just a guess obviously. I sure wouldn't be buying it at these prices but its an incautious market 

1 Year daily, 50/200 dma


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## Dona Ferentes (16 February 2021)

mid 13's



> _Codan has entered into an agreement to acquire Domo Tactical Communications from a private equity company. DTC is an established technology provider for high bandwidth wireless communications with specialist capabilities in MIMO Mesh networks. The company will pay US$88 million (A$114 million) upfront._


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## frugal.rock (16 February 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> mid 13's



Watch it gap up and go for a run tomorrow.... just because I missed an order around $13.20 this afternoon.


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## galumay (16 February 2021)

Just such a great business, so well managed. An $88m USD acquisition, immediately accretive, no debt/no cash deal, paid in full with cash so no dilution for holders.


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## Dona Ferentes (1 April 2021)

Codan Limited (ASX: CDA) has entered into an agreement to acquire 100% of the shares in US-based company, Zetron, Inc., from JVCKENWOOD Corporation. Established 40 years ago, Zetron is a leading _US based company providing mission critical communications and interoperability solutions for public safety, transportation, utilities, healthcare and natural resources customers. Zetron operates from locations in the US, Australia and the UK, with more than 200 employees. _

The acquisition comprises an upfront cash payment of USD45 million (approximately AUD59 million), which will be funded through a combination of existing cash and a recently approved banking facility of AUD100 million. The acquisition is on a cash free, debt free basis and is expected to complete by 30 April 2021, subject to obtaining change of control consents and other conditions precedent standard for transactions of this nature.

Zetron is expected to contribute approximately AUD67 million of sales and AUD8 million in EBITDA under Codan’s ownership in FY22 and therefore it will be _earnings per share_ accretive.

Zetron - A  Public Safety Communications Company 

CDA long term chart


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## galumay (1 April 2021)

Here we go again, another sensible acquisition, looks to be a very good fit, paid about 6x EBITDA, so not expensive. Will require a bit of debt to pay, but again no dilution for holders and with the cash CDA spews out the debt wont be an issue.


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## Dona Ferentes (1 April 2021)

galumay said:


> Here we go again, another sensible acquisition, looks to be a very good fit, paid about 6x EBITDA, so not expensive. Will require a bit of debt to pay, but again no dilution for holders and with the cash CDA spews out the debt wont be an issue.



was waiting for your sensible views .... it seems an _appropriate _acquisition, specialists but/ and going for lower intensity Addressable Market (= less competition?), based on the US sectors they operate

_Motorola and AT&T are dominant_
_Only Zetron and Motorola offer full suite of applications_
_Zetron focused on rural and suburban market_
_Zetron opportunity approximately 1/3 of total market_
_Targeting EBITDA of AUD $8m in FY22_


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## galumay (1 April 2021)

I am screenshotting that compliment to wave in my wife's face!

It will be interesting to see if they have any other targets, maybe not now they have had to use a bit of debt? They have obviously being doing some pretty intense research, finding a private company like this in the US. 

The acquisitions do add risk to the business, we all know how poor the track record is for Aus companies acquiring US ones, but at least they appear to be sticking to their knitting, and while SH's remain undiluted, I am reasonably comfortable.

For me it probably means scrutinising the business a bit more closely over the next 1-2 years, rather than just leaving it on autopilot!


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## darien44 (1 April 2021)

I purchased Codan several months ago. I have used their detectors for years and always knew how highly regarded Minelab is among prospectors. Unfortunately, it never occurred to me to look closely at the company. When I did I realised what good fundamentals it had.

The share price might be a bit ahead of itself having benefited from Covid, but being a long term investor looking to buy quality and hold hopefully forever I really don't care.


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## finicky (1 April 2021)

Not all their acquisitions work out all that well. The Daniels Electronics one hasn't fulfilled its promise yet that I can see. They've discontinued Minetec which they once acquired - sunk a fair chunk of money and effort into that. They got rid of some satellite business.

I have no great complaints about Codan, i think the worst one would be that they allowed the Chinese into their data base because a roving Codan manager hooked up to the house wifi in his Beijing hotel room. Also they were not able to wall off their Minelab detector tech from hackers and counterfeiters which meant that Codan was competing against knock-offs of their own devices in the Africa market. The equity market lost all confidence in the company around that time and I think CDA got down to 50c. I didn't add any and felt I'd possibly lost my investment.

How can it be worth what it is priced at today? Its earnings per share growth over the last 9 years has been ok but it is not high growth, not stellar. 2020 was a record year for eps and the Return on Equity was 28%. I am a bit arbitrarily going to use ROE of 22% as a more normal recent performance. Ok what's that worth as a multiple of book value in a low bond yield context? If you're foreseeing the same historical growth rate of earnings maybe 7x the bv? It has cash, no net debt and a low rate of share inflation. You choose, or apply your own method, that's just what I would rate it at if feeling generous and if I reckoned it would continue its mild rate of growth. Book value fy20 was 1.37. So fair value might be 7 x 1.37 = $9.60. And then there's a need to buy it cheaper than its value or what's the point? Codan currently trading at 11.5 x book value. In a heated market, I suspect its being rated on its most recent year (fy20) performance rather than its long term performance.


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## galumay (1 April 2021)

I dont disagree with most of that finicky, certainly wouldn't be a buyer at current prices. My average is under $1.30 so I am happy to keep holding a fair position - although I have reduced a couple of times. One of my main metrics these days is ROIIC & CDA has very solid numbers which gives me some comfort. The last time I did a back of the envelope valuation my range was around $8.60.


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## finicky (27 May 2021)

New all time high today, bizarre. Has literally gone exponential on a long term chart. In spite of what I've said previously, I'm tempted to sell half my holding if CDA holds these gains into the new financial year.

Daily


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## galumay (27 May 2021)

finicky said:


> I'm tempted to sell half my holding if CDA holds these gains into the new financial year.



I have made that mistake a couple of times! Thankfully still hold most of them. Now a 13 bagger for me.


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## finicky (21 June 2021)

O2 June, good old Don McGurk sells $2.5m worth on market to us plebs (announced 08 June)
Today price down 11%

Daily


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 June 2021)

finicky said:


> O2 June, good old Don McGurk sells $2.5m worth on market to us plebs (announced 08 June)
> Today price down 11%
> 
> Daily
> View attachment 126422



CDA seems to have these highs and lows. I've traded it twice since $9 with no regrets.

I'll watch it again thanks @finicky .

gg


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## finicky (22 July 2021)

Sold half today (5,000 shares) @ 16.89

 Got scared by the chart and as said previously, I believe it is a great company that is overvalued. Don McGurk selling didn't help and I need the cash since I no longer have a surging CHN share price to rely upon for cashing up.

Held

Daily


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## galumay (22 July 2021)

Definitely agree its overpriced.


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## frugal.rock (22 July 2021)

Will it bounce off $16 on FY earnings though, hmmm?
Not held.


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## galumay (22 July 2021)

@frugal.rock, fair chance it will I reckon. Even though I would not expect any surprise in those FY earnings.


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## frugal.rock (22 July 2021)

With a gold chart like this though, gold detector sales should be well up YoY.
Not new news though. (Christmas & Easter are the dominant sales times, there's always big nuggets being found in time to advertise them before the sales 😅)
Depends on the other side of the business and that it hasn't dragged, and, the dividend factor?


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## darien44 (22 July 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> With a gold chart like this though, gold detector sales should be well up YoY.
> Not new news though. (Christmas & Easter are the dominant sales times, there's always big nuggets being found in time to advertise them before the sales 😅)
> Depends on the other side of the business and that it hasn't dragged, and, the dividend factor?
> 
> View attachment 127695



The new GPX6000 that was released a few months ago is apparently selling very well, though I must say it is a annoyingly noisy machine, having tried it on heavy mineralised ground here in Victoria 🙂


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## frugal.rock (22 July 2021)

darien44 said:


> The new GPX6000 that was released a few months ago is apparently selling very well, though I must say it is a annoyingly noisy machine, having tried it on heavy mineralised ground here in Victoria 🙂



Vic GT eh?
Brings back memories.
RIP Jim Stewart.Laancoorie legendary nice guy.
Say g'day to Wombat 😁

Last time in Vic I got bogged in the Whipstick, not happy Jan.
Plenty of clay hotspots there, has you digging nothing, grrrr🤪

No smoother timings for the  GPX6000 ?
Must be some reasonable trade off for depth over noise? Different coil perhaps? Ground moisture levels? Dunno, just guessing.
(On my 2nd 4500 and had the 5000 for a while, started on SD2100.)

Love Minelab, no opinion on Codan.
Just the "new" custodian. I'm getting old!

My huge gold collection...


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## finicky (19 August 2021)

Wow FY21 reporting ROE of 36%
Almost zero debt despite spending $174 on acquisitions
News is being sold this morning though, still very over-priced as discussed 
Losing Don McGurk in 9-12 months so he'll be able to flog off more shares.
Everything jumped except tactical comms - down 8%. Land Mobile Radio had record year though.


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## galumay (19 August 2021)

Yes, @finicky I think everything was baked in the price already and then some, also MD leaving and a down day in the market generally, I expect it may well drift lower in medium term. Will be interesting to see how H1 2022 pans out for the expanded business.


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## finicky (27 October 2021)

Down 20% - my theory is that the chair and m.d set a too reassuring tone in their addesses. You don't need to reassure punters if things are going swimmingly. Appears that Covid is still biting - government budgets are too strained to be awarding contracts in communications and parts supplies are under a cloud despite Codan stocking up. Something also about shipping rates. Maybe I should reread it. Anyway at least our leader, good old Don, can't unload more shares on market near a top (June 2)

Held

Daily


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## Sean K (27 October 2021)

finicky said:


> Held




Well done selling half in July.  🎯


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## galumay (27 October 2021)

I couldn't see any reason for the price plunge today, other than the whole market was pretty soft. I actually thought the announcements today would push the price back up. Seemed to be all good news to me, delivered in the typical understated Codan way. Maybe too many analysts look like missing earnings predictions?? 

Oh well, its all a sideshow to me, happy to hodl.


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## peter2 (27 October 2021)

I had *CDA* on a reversal watch list and was liking the price action here. My trigger was a BO>13.50. It happened this morning and I did notice the news at the same time, thought the news of large sale looked OK. The early price action was bullish and price quickly romped to 13.80. Now 'm thinking that my procrastination cost me a good entry into the reversal. No matter, I will monitor it for the next opportunity which should be a higher probability setup. 

Returned later to see the price below $12. Like, WTF! This is a significant selloff. 





	

		
			
		

		
	
  I haven't seen any comments on this rout yet.


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## galumay (28 October 2021)

Peter2, I have heard no explanation either, as a LTI, volatility like that is something that I just ignore. Holding a lot of illiquid shares its not uncommon, but unusual with a company like CDA. Especially when they also released good news on the same day. Imagine if they had released something negative!!

Maybe its just a function of such a toppy market with so many stocks priced way out in front of any viable valuation? Possibly a sign of things to come as the world adjusts to a post-Covid outlook?


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## finicky (5 November 2021)

FWIW (not much, based on past history of public statements on stocks he holds or wants to own, imo)









						Why I am still keen on Codan
					

The share price of electronic solutions and metal detector maker, Codan (ASX: CDA), has fallen around 42 per cent since June. It’s now back where it was around 12 months ago. But instead of being concerned, I believe the company continues to have a very bright future. Long term readers will know...




					rogermontgomery.com
				




The share price of electronic solutions and metal detector maker, Codan (ASX: CDA), has fallen around 42 per cent since June. It’s now back where it was around 12 months ago. But instead of being concerned, I believe the company continues to have a very bright future.

Long term readers will know that Codan is one of my favourite companies and it has been a significant contributor to fund performance over the past four years. After peaking at just over $19/share in June, the share price has come off and is now trading at just over $10/share as we can see in this chart which shows Codan’s share price during the last five years.
So what has happened to cause such a fall?
​There are a couple of reasons for the weakness in share price.
The first is related to the full year results in August. The well-regarded long-term CEO Donald McGurk announced his intention to retire. Donald has been with Codan since 2000 and has been the CEO for the last 11 years and has built up a lot of trust with the market. This announcement came after the company executed two acquisitions and caused the market to increase the risk premium it applied to Codan’s shares which caused the first leg down to around $14/share.

The second and most recent fall to approximately $10 came post the recent AGM announcement where the company said that the existing businesses were trading in-line with last year. This is consistent with what management indicated at the time of the full year results and should not come as a surprise given that FY21 was an extremely strong year in particularly for the metal detection division as a lot of people took it up as a new “naturally social distanced” hobby during lockdowns. Management was very clear that a flat outcome year-on-year would be very good, but it seems like some analysts and investors have been so accustomed to the management team’s history of under-promising and over-delivering that they assumed that this was the case again and built in growth assumptions in their forecasts. When Codan came out and said that the existing business is flat, there were therefore some disappointment in the market and it seems like the market is now assuming that the existing business is ex-growth.
The recent acquisitions have yet to present any hard numbers on how they are tracking and the market can therefore not yet form a firm opinion on if they will add value over time.

So what do we think?
Regarding Donald’s departure, we are of course sad to see him go as he has been a very good CEO who has made a number of good decisions. We are very impressed with the rest of the management team and do not think that a new CEO will result in any big changes to strategy or operational execution. We would probably have preferred to see an internal candidate but understand the company’s reasoning for looking for an external CEO. They are looking for a 10-year CEO and the obvious internal candidates are of an age where such a commitment cannot be made. Given Codan’s market position and growth trajectory, they should be able to attract highly qualified CEO candidates so we are confident that they will be able to replace Donald.

Regarding the existing business being ex-growth, this seems like a very pessimistic assumption to us for a number of reasons:

 It is most likely true that the metal detection business received a one-off boost due to lockdowns and stimulus payments being spent on a new hobby but we believe that the market will continue to grow as there are many parts of the world where metal detection for either gold or recreation is virtually unheard of and Codan is actively looking to develop these markets by opening up sales offices or appointing sales agents (Brazil, India, Indonesia and several African countries).

 Even if there was a one-off boost in recreational sales, it was likely in the lower priced machines. Users which “get the bug” will likely upgrade to more advanced higher priced machines in time and the increased “installed base” from last year’s one-off boost will therefore have positive longer-term effects.

 Codan estimates that they are spending more on R&D in metal detection than all its competitors combined. This should over time lead to further market share gains and according to Codan, they have about 27-28 per cent market share in both US and Europe so there is plenty of potential growth from market share gains if they continue to out-innovate the rest of the industry.

 The existing Communication division will suffer a bit in FY22 from the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan as they will have to replace around $8 million of sales now that the Taliban’s are in charge there. The resumption of international travel should though result in Codan being able to engage with new and existing customers again so they should be able to replace this over time.

In addition to how we see the existing business, the recent acquisitions both seem quite exciting to us. Zetron will likely be a major beneficiary when the U.S. updates its emergency number system (search for NG911 if you want to read more) and Codan announced on the same day as the AGM that DTC has won a major order from a large multinational technology company to supply mesh radio equipment for a product that will be sold to the US military over the coming 10 years.

Overall, the fall in share price and some limited downgrades has resulted in the valuation contracting significantly in the last few months as we can see from the following chart which shows the one year forward looking P/E ratio (the yellow line) contracting from a top of close to 30x to around 16x currently. The directors of the company seem to think the price fall is overdone as they have been busy topping up their shareholdings after the AGM and we tend to agree with them.


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## galumay (5 November 2021)

Nothing has ever made me want to sell out of CDA.

Until I see Dodgy Roger is pumping it, probably the highest profile fund manager responsible for the greatest destruction of wealth for his clients over the years. Thats enough to have me wondering what I have missed with CDA & whether its not time to get out!


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## galumay (10 November 2021)

Trading Halt this morning. Acquisition?


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## mullokintyre (10 November 2021)

Put in some low ball bids below 10 bucks.
But I might yet buy in at anything below 10.3
Seems to have gone from overvalued to under valued.
Revenue growth has been good, forecasts also good for next two fin years.
Mick


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 November 2021)

This is a good thread. Thanks all.

As I said above I've been in and out twice. In at high $9 and low $10 and out for a profit of 20% each time. I was kicking myself for not letting it run. 

I'm considering again. I believe the changing of the guard is more of a factor than the underlying outlook, although the latter is an unknown. It was nice to see an Australian company fly even though I didn't reap all the gains. 

Perhaps more insiders may be approaching retirement which will influence price and supply.

I note some divergence on the RSI since late October.







gg


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## galumay (10 November 2021)

I have a back of the envelope, range of valuation for CDA at $10, so by my calculations its getting back down to fair value. Still, its one of those businesses now that is unlikely to ever be cheap, if it continues to execute well.


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## mullokintyre (1 December 2021)

CDA announced a 4 mill UK acquisition.
Not earth shattering, 
Shares still languishing below 10 bucks
will top up if I see some positive action.
Mick


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## mullokintyre (30 December 2021)

Added CDA to my yearly comp entry.
As Sean K said, it has some good swings  over extended periods, hope to pick up on the next one.
AS the gold price picks up, hopefully more of the retired baby boomers take up prospecting.
Mick


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## frugal.rock (20 January 2022)

Couldn't be too far off turning up?
Whenever gold goes up, my thoughts turn to Minelab/ Codan.
Hopefully the WA borders open again for detector swinging season and Grey Nomad tourist money.
Not held.


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## Garpal Gumnut (20 January 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Couldn't be too far off turning up?
> Whenever gold goes up, my thoughts turn to Minelab/ Codan.
> Hopefully the WA borders open again for detector swinging season and Grey Nomad tourist money.
> Not held.
> ...



Funny you should post that.

I checked the CDA chart for the first time last night in some time. 

You may be correct. It has new management now that Mr. McGurk is retiring. 

gg


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## galumay (20 January 2022)

I reckon its back down to fair value now @frugal.rock. Probably wont do much until the H1 results are released. Even though my cost price is multiples lower, I would start to think about adding at anything less than $8


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## finicky (20 January 2022)

Think Codan is unlikely to ever get cheap? During the CCP Virus Feb/Mar 2020, CDA more than halved from 8.50 to $4. In 2013/14, Chinese counterfeiting and a Codan manager signing into the free wifi of a Beijing hotel room sent the stock from $4 to 50c. Half Yearly report came 18 Feb last year although there was a profit guidance 2 months earlier. No guidance this year.
Weekly chart - the volume is receding in the downtrend, the momentum is flattening, but otherwise no positives yet that I can see. *Not* calling it at all but if $9 doesn't hold a descent to $7 looks at least possible. I am waiting on a strong weekly signal at the least but probably won't be buying anyway.

Weekly


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## peter2 (21 January 2022)

We've all seen prices that have fallen by 50%, fall another 50%. Has anyone noted the reason for the selling? 
The daily price chart shows three huge down bars since June. Huge red down bars are like cockroaches, when you seen them you know there's plenty more hiding nearby.


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 January 2022)

peter2 said:


> We've all seen prices that have fallen by 50%, fall another 50%. Has anyone noted the reason for the selling?
> The daily price chart shows three huge down bars since June. Huge red down bars are like cockroaches, when you seen them you know there's plenty more hiding nearby.











						CEO retirement takes shine off Codan's golden run - InDaily
					

News of technology company Codan Limited’s continued golden run has been overshadowed by the imminent retirement of its trailblazing managing director and CEO Donald McGurk.




					indaily.com.au
				




gg


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## mullokintyre (21 January 2022)

So, I suppose I should forget about the 20222 competition then.
Mick


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> So, I suppose I should forget about the 20222 competition then.
> Mick



I don't reckon so. 

I'm watching the chart. What goes down often comes back up. CDA has been good to me in the past.

gg


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## galumay (21 January 2022)

finicky said:


> Think Codan is unlikely to ever get cheap? During the CCP Virus Feb/Mar 2020, CDA more than halved from 8.50 to $4. In 2013/14, Chinese counterfeiting and a Codan manager signing into the free wifi of a Beijing hotel room sent the stock from $4 to 50c. Half Yearly report came 18 Feb last year although there was a profit guidance 2 months earlier. No guidance this year.
> Weekly chart - the volume is receding in the downtrend, the momentum is flattening, but otherwise no positives yet that I can see. *Not* calling it at all but if $9 doesn't hold a descent to $7 looks at least possible. I am waiting on a strong weekly signal at the least but probably won't be buying anyway.
> 
> Weekly
> View attachment 136198




A lot of companies got cheap for a week after the Covid crash in Mar 2020, CDA was not alone there, you would have needed to be extremely agile to take advantage of that blip! Yes, it was certainly objectively cheap in 2013 when it went under $1, luckily I was buying then as I could see the value. After price getting so far ahead of value in the last 12 months its not easy to be objective about when it becomes a compelling buy due to discount to value. Its further complicated by the uncertainty of the effects on the business of Covid in the near term.

Unless it falls below $8 I would be reluctant to buy prior to the H1 results, but at that price its certainly looking like reasonable value with a decent margin of safety. 

At the end of the day its a much better business than it was when I first bought into it, thats a testament to management execution and good capital allocation. My only regret is I did sell some of my holding to fund other business activity outside investing.


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## mullokintyre (25 January 2022)

Half yearly out.


> Codan  finished the  first  half  strongly  and  our  profit  will  be a record  first  half  result.  The businesses  acquired  at  the end  of  last  financial  year,  DTC  and  Zetron,  both  exceeded  our  first half  profit  expectations. The unaudited sales  achieved in the first  half  of  FY22 were $257  million,  representing  an increase of  32%  over  the  prior  corresponding period.  The  net  profit  after  tax  is  expected  to be around $50  million,  an increase of  21%. Despite the  global  shortages  of  electronic  components  and the  well-publicised global  supply chain disruptions,  we were  able to successfully  maintain supply  to our  customers  and increase our  inventory  holdings.  The  conscious  decision  to  invest  in  increased  levels  of  inventory  places the group in a  strong  position  as  we enter  the second half  of  FY22.   The Board will  provide further  detailed  information  regarding the  first  half  FY22 performance of  the business  and  the  outlook  for  the  second half  FY22  on  17 February  2022.



Should give it a kick along.
Mick


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## galumay (25 January 2022)

Yep, if you didn't buy before today, you have missed this dip I suspect. That is some very strong numbers and impressive integration of the acquisitions already. Hold on to your seats!


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## finicky (25 January 2022)

Codan guiding a 21% increase in H1 profit, told you not to sell your shares yet. Comes on top of an amazing reversal overnight of the U.S indices (lucky)

"_Dow stages unprecedented 1,214-point intraday reversal, and all 3 major indexes end higher in tumultuous Monday"_


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## galumay (25 January 2022)

We are both going to pay a bit with opportunity cost here @finicky !!

Like you I was waiting for a larger discount to fair value. 

Its interesting to think about, its probably a compelling buy for a high conviction holder like me, even up 16% today. Its completely de-risked for the time being, and the IV will have risen considerably with the increased earnings. It just really hard to do because of anchoring bias.


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## galumay (25 January 2022)

For my own interest I have revisited my valuation and assuming H2 is similar to H1 (historically true), then i calculate a roughly 10% increase in my range of fair value to around $11. I was thinking that $8 represented a pretty compelling price when I valued it around $10, so in very 'back of the envelope' terms, I would be interested now at $9. 

So regarding my previous post, I dont think i am going to be adding here!


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## mullokintyre (25 January 2022)

Whatever your investment or Trading rules are, its important to stick within the rules, and not be swayed by sentiment, whether its your own or someone else's.
Mick


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## galumay (25 January 2022)

Very true Mick, its one of the things I have got much better at as an investor.


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## finicky (25 January 2022)

I really think everyone should be swayed by my sentiment, to the point of blind faith, lol - especially if anyone is over concentrated in a stock or if holding insufficent cash for a big 'upset'.
@galumay have not been considering adding CDA in a dip. It is only in the event of a major downturn that I will be looking at it in that light again. I have been buying cash-strapped goldie specs though - go figure.

Held


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## peter2 (25 January 2022)

I'm sure we're not going to see the price of *CDA* halve again after today's glowing trading update. Further details to be released 17/2/22.
This doesn't mean that the price can't go lower especially in this very bearish market. 

In light of the update I've placed *CDA* in the reversal watch list awaiting a low sized risk buy setup. 
_Note: This watch list has been growing quite fast due to the current panic selloff. _


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## mullokintyre (17 February 2022)

Half yearly out today, in line with expectations.
Good parts: highest sales qtr on record, NPAT  and EPS both up 21%, increased dividend of 13 cops.
The bad bits: big increase in inventory, which reduced net cash from business activities and a planned big 65 mill increase in CAPEX.
No guidance provided,
The market was not impressed, and down nearly 6%, so naturally I bought a few more below 8.40.
Mick


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## galumay (17 February 2022)

I think its getting pretty compelling at that sort of price, @mullokintyre 
The only question for me is about the level of trust in management with their narrative about the impacts on FCF. I am pretty comfortable with it given their history with the business. I think the market struggles with taking a longer than 3 month view of business! Increasing inventory & Capex seems prudent to me given the disruptive effects of the last 2-3 years, but of course we wont see the benefits for some time.


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## mullokintyre (18 February 2022)

Despite the 13 cent divvy, CDA hit another 52  week low today.
The market has spoken.
Mick


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 February 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Despite the 13 cent divvy, CDA hit another 52  week low today.
> The market has spoken.
> Mick



I've traded this in the past after a divi and it turned quite quickly up.

It hasn't hit my stop loss yet. 

gg


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## galumay (18 February 2022)

Odd, I nearly bought some more today when they hit $8.20, but maybe they drop even more?? I don't know why the sentiment is so poor. I went back thru the H1 report and my own valuation/analysis and the only thing that worries me is that negative operating cash flow. I didn't think most market participants looked that far down the report!!


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## peter2 (21 February 2022)

If there's no obvious red flags in the fundamentals then the falling share price is an interesting anomaly. *CDA* goes 0.13 XD on 23/2/22. 
I'll continue to monitor for a reversal setup.


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## peter2 (5 April 2022)

Nothing to see here until recently. Price has stopped falling and traded sideways for 4-5 weeks. The volume has been reducing and the $ amount traded per day (red line) has fallen to low levels. This would indicate that all those who wanted to sell probably have. Now we need to see some increase in demand to complete the reversal and perhaps start a trend up. I'd like to see price close above 7.60 as a first step.


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## frugal.rock (5 April 2022)

Shame they don't have a dividend reinvestment plan. 
Still got a $35 check laying around from last divvy.  
Would invest a larger amount with them if they a DRP...


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## mullokintyre (12 April 2022)

CDA, another 52 week low.
Sigh, what hope does a bloke have?
Mick


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## Ann (12 April 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> CDA, another 52 week low.
> Sigh, what hope does a bloke have?
> Mick



Wow, yuck! Sorry Mick, I normally try to avoid any negative comments on a person's shareholdings. Just for interest, I glanced at this after seeing your post.

When this stops its free fall, which could even be as low as $4 if it tries for a double bottom, it is going to take ages before it is clear of its massive falling trendline and eventually climbs above the 200dMAs which look like water spurting out of a hose at the moment!

Only my thoughts and I could be very wrong.


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## mullokintyre (12 April 2022)

Ann said:


> Wow, yuck! Sorry Mick, I normally try to avoid any negative comments on a person's shareholdings. Just for interest, I glanced at this after seeing your post.
> 
> When this stops its free fall, which could even be as low as $4 if it tries for a double bottom, it is going to take ages before it is clear of its massive falling trendline and eventually climbs above the 200dMAs which look like water spurting out of a hose at the moment!
> 
> ...



Its Ok thanks Ann, I have got over it.
Will just have to rely on the other three stocks in the years competition to rocket to the top.
Mick


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## Ann (12 April 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Its Ok thanks Ann, I have got over it.
> Will just have to rely on the other three stocks in the years competition to rocket to the top.
> Mick



Oh phew! It is the annual comp you are talking about and not one of your holdings, what a relief. I haven't looked but I am sure my annual picks all are in need of a snorkel and flippers by now!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 April 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> CDA, another 52 week low.
> Sigh, what hope does a bloke have?
> Mick



I’m surprised as well with its fall. On the move this evening so won’t be able to post a chart. 

I don’t hold but will hop on at the first sign of a recovery in that impressive downtrend.

gg


----------



## mullokintyre (12 April 2022)

Ann said:


> Oh phew! It is the annual comp you are talking about and not one of your holdings, what a relief. I haven't looked but I am sure my annual picks all are in need of a snorkel and flippers by now!



I do have them in the super portfolio, but the tipping competition is the most important outcome.
I only get four to choose from, whereas I can buy or sell  lots of stocks in the SMSF to offset my losses (like KTA for instance).
Mixk


----------



## galumay (12 April 2022)

Topped up my holding in the personal PF, its just too compelling at sub $7. Well below my range of value and a significant margin of safety. One of the best businesses i own.


----------



## Country Lad (12 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> On the move this evening so won’t be able to post a chart.
> 
> 
> 
> gg



Hitched up the caravan for a trip @Garpal Gumnut?


----------



## frugal.rock (22 April 2022)

Unnamed "expert" forecast.
Missing a timeframe component. No idea how they have arrived at this estimation.
🤔


----------



## galumay (23 April 2022)

Make it up as you go! Good find frugal.rock


----------



## frugal.rock (23 April 2022)

galumay said:


> Make it up as you go! Good find frugal.rock



Actually it seems most brokers are in agreeance? From elsewhere...


----------



## galumay (24 April 2022)

I dont think you need to be a broker or analyst to work out CDA is currently under valued. The bit that always amuse me is how they have such precise calculations of value - $13.70, $12.06, $13.64, $24.69, $7.54 !! 

I am reminded of Charlie saying that its better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.
​


----------



## frugal.rock (24 April 2022)

galumay said:


> I am reminded of Charlie saying that its better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.


----------



## divs4ever (24 April 2022)

damn , and i thought i was  being clever using the Bob Newhart method of accounting 

( the Retirement Party skit reference )


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 April 2022)

divs4ever said:


> damn , and i thought i was  being clever using the Bob Newhart method of accounting
> 
> ( the Retirement Party skit reference )



If it's good enough for @divs4ever I'll have it in the May comp. 

It has been sold down to ridiculously cheap levels after it's founder and MD McGurk retired. They make good gear for finding Gold. 

Now an International outfit. 

All manner of useful electronic gismos which sell to muppets such as I.

gg


----------



## peter2 (12 May 2022)

Noticed a couple of HVBBs recently. Much stronger than the market. 





Eagerly awaiting confirmation from the "bouncey, bouncey " indicator.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 May 2022)

peter2 said:


> Noticed a couple of HVBBs recently. Much stronger than the market.
> 
> View attachment 141519
> 
> Eagerly awaiting confirmation from the "bouncey, bouncey " indicator.



This is a difficult one Peter. 

I always need to be careful that I'm not knife catching with stock such as CDA.

I've lowered my bet on CDA from 1/2 a big one to 3 and one half small ones and will push forward the other $46,500 when some news of a takeover/ Ukranian shareholding, or some other blessed event for CDA comes via the usual suspects.

Thus far I'm losin' some winnin's as we used say at Poker school with close money management but have Great Expectations as Dickens prophesied.

Live and let DY.....OR, sorry DYOR seems to have crept in to ASF. I do dislike it. 

Oh and BYO. lol. As my TA (Trading Account) is suffering.

I'd love to be the barrister for ASIC prosecuting those very important hundreds of thousands sages of advice. "and now Mr. Poster what exactly does DYOR mean ".

In summary, even though CDA now may be a dart pick, I've seen worse dart picks. 

gg


----------



## mullokintyre (23 May 2022)

CDA put a sort of guidance for the year.
It says that 


> While the timing of project sales or unforeseen challenges in supply chains could still impact revenues and profitability as we approach the end of the financial year, the Board is expecting the record FY22 first half profit of $50 million to be matched in the second half of FY22.  This will result in a record FY22 full year profit.



Still puzzles me why this has fallen so far,  but hey, you never argue with Mr (or Mrs, or Miss, or they, ...) Market.
Mick


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 May 2022)

_the face of modern warfare. The Info pack is quite instructive_

MILITARY / DEFENCE MARKET

_*Paradigm shift in battlefield information requirements *_
• Consider Ukraine as an unfortunate ‘live’ example 
• Dynamic Situational Awareness is a key success factor 
• Live Troop positions, Video footage from Drones for situational awareness 
• >10 times the information traffic is required

_*How is Codan | DTC technology applicable? *_
• Software Defined Radio is a Core Technology within Codan & DTC 
• Waveform enhancement is decoupled from Hardware change 
• Multiple waveforms can be implemented in one platform 
• Each waveform targeting different military applications

* Codan | DTC Mesh offers *
• Mobility, IP, Video, Voice and Position Data from one radio 
• Product offerings with MIL-STD compliance


----------



## finicky (23 May 2022)

As @mullokintyre has noted, strong profit guidance update. Price is deservedly up 11% intraday.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (23 May 2022)

A bit of a way to go to catch @Dona Ferentes with AR1. A good start today with CDA in the green, with 8d to go in the May Competition. 






gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 May 2022)

good to see you being/ feeling positive, @Garpal Gumnut

And I'm sure @Sean K will back me up, but Codan equipment was the comms of choice in Cambodian peacekeeping times , now some 30 years ago


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A good start today with CDA in the green, with 8d to go in the May Competition.



6 and a half

EDIT: I only feel alive when markets are open


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (23 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> 6 and a half



I KNEW you would say that. 

gg


----------



## finicky (23 May 2022)

Some Sudan background and a viewpoint from Claude Walker fwiw (not much in my opinion. I did not renew my paid subscription because of his smug lefty superior morality, hatred of Trump and support of  vax mandates. Insufferable political tone. He ballsed up buying into XRO much too early btw.)









						Why I Bought Codan (ASX: CDA) Shares - A Rich Life
					

Codan's Minelab detection business has gone into reverse, but the share price may now compensate for that headwind.




					arichlife.com.au


----------



## galumay (23 May 2022)

galumay said:


> I think its getting pretty compelling at that sort of price, @mullokintyre
> The only question for me is about the level of trust in management with their narrative about the impacts on FCF. I am pretty comfortable with it given their history with the business. I think the market struggles with taking a longer than 3 month view of business! Increasing inventory & Capex seems prudent to me given the disruptive effects of the last 2-3 years, but of course we wont see the benefits for some time.






galumay said:


> Topped up my holding in the personal PF, its just too compelling at sub $7. Well below my range of value and a significant margin of safety. One of the best businesses i own.




Probably should have been more aggressive in allocating capital, at least i did add to my position. The turnaround in FCF was quicker than I expected, just further confirmation of what a good business it is.


----------



## finicky (15 June 2022)

Seems a bit cheap now, maybe Don McGurk is selling the rest after that chunk he disposed of at the top.
Tempted to start buying back in but I don't have an adequate cash reserve for the next dumpster wave as it is. Surprisingly, Codan has given back all its gain since strong fy22 guidance was given. 

Held

Daily


----------



## sptrawler (16 June 2022)

Would high fuel costs and a recession affect the metal detector sector?


----------



## finicky (16 June 2022)

@sptrawler I take a superficial approach but find nothing in the May guidance fy22 that refers to fuel or recession being factors. I think that their expectation that fy22 will be the second best on record for Minelab speaks to them not being critically hampered by anything at all. I assume that Sudan is still their biggest market and they refer to disruptions there but do not specify what in the hand-out. Anyway they expect normalization there in fy23. The share price still looks precarious to me fwiw.


----------



## divs4ever (16 June 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Would high fuel costs and a recession affect the metal detector sector?



 MAYBE 

 one logic would say  less folks able to go exploring/detecting ( at commercial  and hobbyist levels ) ( cash-flow issues )

 another logic would suggest  lower employment might cause more folks to explore/detect  for casual income ( hobbyists/scavengers ) ( and do so for longer time-frames per expedition )


----------



## galumay (16 June 2022)

Rather than speculate about the unknowable, (fuel costs, recession, inflation etc.), the way I approach it is to reverse engineer the current price and see how resilient it looks. In CDA's case a price of under $7 assumes essentially no growth, ever, even with a discount/MoS rate of 10%. Alternatively based on profit, assumes a drop in FCF/earnings of over 30%. 

Also worth considering how much the mix has changed, comms sector has greatly increased as a % of revenue. Finally its debt free, has fantastic ROIIC, and has net margins north of 20%! 

Of course none of that means the price wont drop a lot further! It just helps me sleep at night as a long term owner of the business, and gives me the conviction to add to my postition at a price that is multiples of my cost base.


----------



## sptrawler (16 June 2022)

I like your thinking ,@galumay .


----------



## finicky (10 July 2022)

Caveat a major crash development (as for any chart commentary, as t/a is an attempt to plot sentiment) but  a strong case can be made for a significant low made on June 17, @ ~$6.15, where a bullish 'dragonfly doji' daily candle was formed on unusually high volume - see thumbnail insert. Also of note (I guess) is that this daily candle made an 'island reversal' with the before and after candles.

On the weekly chart we can see a sloppy 'W' low and the last weekly candle falls outside my rough fit downtrend line. A hurdle will be to make a higher peak than the May 30, $8.30 peak made on the way down. I think there might be a short term pullback first as momentum is getting ahead of price and volume is modest.

Recently there has been some *significant director buying on market*:

Barclay, 27 June, $105k spent, $7.17 per share
Ianniello, 25 May, $105k spent, $7.56 per share
Ianniello, 10 May, $181k spent, $6.70 per share

Held

Weekly





Daily


----------



## finicky (12 July 2022)

Order getting filled for some @ 7.21
Really doing little more than buying back half of the tranche that I sold in July 2020 @ 7.69. Thought it was getting stretched and overpriced then; don't now, assuming fy22 results confirm guidance. As we know price more than doubled from that 7.69 sell price back then - the heady days.

Held

10 Days, 15 minute intervals


----------



## finicky (2 August 2022)

Full year results were released 19 August last year.
Chart still looking good although getting towards short term overbought level. But price has been smoothly ratcheting higher since the 17 June low. Price has passed the 30 May final peak of the prior downtrend = higher high in my book.

Held
Alf Ianniello, Codan (ASX CDA) CEO, Talks To Strawman Members​


----------



## mullokintyre (18 August 2022)

This years results out.
Sales up 16% 
Net profit up 3%.
Dividend 15 cents.
I'll take it.
Mick


----------



## mullokintyre (18 August 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> This years results out.
> Sales up 16%
> Net profit up 3%.
> Dividend 15 cents.
> ...



Yikes, i am alone in my admiration.
Market cruched CDA by 12% so far.
Will resist the urge to "buy on the dips".
Mick


----------



## galumay (18 August 2022)

Bizarre, all results telegraphed and inline with previous guidance, record sales, profits and divvies, FCF back to positive in 2nd half, but Mr Market dumps it like a rotten fish!!


----------



## finicky (21 August 2022)

Pretty sure I'll be in for a few more of these next week as long as the price still languishes. Pick up the H2  15c dividend (ex date Thur 25 Aug). This is well below my 'intrinsic valuation' and markets for metal detectors like North Africa should pick up with an improved gold price and quieter politics. Even if they don't, newer markets should develop in time if you believe management. Countermines segment growing.
 Then there's Communications division growing and its new acquisitions performing well.
Don't have a view on the chart but it has already retraced ~50% of rally off the June bottom.

Held


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (21 August 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Yikes, i am alone in my admiration.
> Market cruched CDA by 12% so far.
> Will resist the urge to "buy on the dips".
> Mick
> ...



I'm in two minds about CDO. I had a big win on a small bet a few years ago and a small loss on a big bet last year.

Even Stevens atm. I'm not all over Mac's retirement and CDO's focus going forward. 

I'll look at it again next week.  

gg


----------



## finicky (23 August 2022)

So I bought 2,500 more @ $7.34 on Monday and am up for a few more if it gets tempting again. Investment, not trading tranches.
Down around $7.20 the price had dropped ~62% from the recent high at $9 and if lines are drawn across peaks of the 15 minute chart the rate of descent is easing, so a better than weak chance the low is in for the retracement?

*15 minute chart*


----------



## finicky (24 August 2022)

Well off the low of 7.11 today but picked up another 2,500 @ 7.20
It's interesting to put a ruler across the recent peaks of the 15 minute chart and see the price move outside downtrend resistance late in the day. It's only a 5 day, 15m interval chart but I am using it because I feel a bottom should be near based on valuation.
Have to post about something.

5 day, 15 minute.


----------



## galumay (24 August 2022)

I dont really see how you can go wrong in the medium to long term at current prices @finicky. Thats a whooping discount to my range of value, its such a strong business on so many metrics. Of course black swans can always **** on our parade, but there are not many more compelling opportunities for such low downside IMO.


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## finicky (24 August 2022)

I think I recall you sayìng that CDA was already a big part of your p/f @galumay so I guess that's why you're not currently buying? Or maybe you subscribe to the big crash being ahead? I do, yet I'm buying, WTF? Of course it might be your passion for technical analysis that I'm missing.


----------



## galumay (24 August 2022)

LOL! Yes, its my passion for TA. 😜

You are correct, its already a big part of my personal PF and I bought more when they were $7 a couple of months ago. Its bloody hard buying them at these prices when I have parcels that cost under $1. 🤪


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 August 2022)

galumay said:


> ... bought more when they were $7 a couple of months ago. Its bloody hard buying them at these prices when I have parcels that cost under $1.



therein lies one of the fundamental conundrums. (My rationale then becomes one of allocation and how to manage the risk implied in being overweight)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 August 2022)

I've had a good look at CDA over the past few days and I'll stand aside. 

It is a strong buy from all the brokers which makes me immediately suspicious that they are looking for buyers to offload their large clients who are selling. 

There has to be some bad unannounced news such as an insider selling down or a major problem with earnings or profit. 

The chart looks atrocious. Even before this most recent fall the RSI was diverging from the consolidation late July to last week. 

Sometimes you have to decide not to play. All good wishes and profit to those who feel otherwise and prove me wrong.






gg


----------



## finicky (25 August 2022)

So it's the gloomy Garpal t/a school of paranoia against the finicky school of bouncy bouncy (recently somewhat tarnished by CHN due to dark pool intervention). I think it's fairly obvious who will prevail.
A quick lesson out of sheer good will since notion of divergence was raised - hidden divergence on the daily rsi from June - Aug?


----------



## galumay (25 August 2022)

Happily and blissfully ignorant of that which you speak, @finicky!


----------



## finicky (2 September 2022)

Gloomy Garpal school of t/a has gained the upper hand but I am still digging my hole deeper on perceived valuation grounds and added 1,000 @ 6.78; price immediately drops to 6.73.
Maybe it's something to do with a reaction to lower cash conversion in the fy22 result due higher inventory and higher receivables? They do offer an explanation for the higher inventory which is acceptable - to me anyway.
Price still hasn't taken out June low at which point I will concede (but probably still add)


----------



## galumay (2 September 2022)

Very tempted to add some more at sub $7's, such a large MoS at that price.


----------



## finicky (2 September 2022)

What do you get for a value galumay? To me, overlooking the poorer cashflow fy22, I used the median ROE over 9 years which was fy18 of 22% which to me is worth > 4X book value of $2. Noting the recent 3 years have well exceeded FY18 ROE. Adding nothing for potential growth. So *at least* $8 of value I would have thought. Assumes no problem with debt level which I can't assess but looks moderate.


----------



## galumay (2 September 2022)

Interesting @finicky, I use a different process, also largely normalising for the FCF in FY22. I use my own shorthand, reverse engineered DCF and basically end up with a similar range of value around $8. 

That is a very conservative calculation though, in light of the debt, inventory build and assumes very low growth. 

Realistically its not going to stay at these levels if there are no black swan events, the yield alone provides a floor.


----------



## finicky (6 September 2022)

Almost 4m shares dumped in the first hour of trading - enough to place today with the highest volume days over the last year - in 1 hour. In fact there has only been one day in the last 5 years to significantly out-volume today's early trading. The June low  isn't looking looking great. I still wonder why McGurk left; did he see something distant coming down the pike.

I Year Daily


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 September 2022)

finicky said:


> Almost 4m shares dumped in the first hour of trading - enough to place today with the highest volume days over the last year - in 1 hour. In fact there has only been one day in the last 5 years to significantly out-volume today's early trading. The June low  isn't looking looking great. I still wonder why McGurk left; did he see something distant coming down the pike.
> 
> I Year Daily
> View attachment 146418



As you are @finicky , I am surprised by the fall in price. 

McGurk started the business a long time ago so entities associated with him all the way down to the as yet unborn would have an interest in CDA and it may be just family "stuff" cashing out. 

OR

There is something chronically wrong with CDA, as yet unannounced. 

I'll not be back in until it becomes more clear as to what is up. 

gg


----------



## finicky (7 September 2022)

Oh, and there goes the June low. With a delightful little gap down.
Right again @Garpal Gumnut (AR9 😬)

Held
Edit: I just accidentally hit the 'unwatch thread' button. Maybe I will.


----------



## galumay (7 September 2022)

If it goes below $6 I will have to add some more.


----------



## darien44 (7 September 2022)

galumay said:


> If it goes below $6 I will have to add some more.



Any opinion on why the stock is performing so poorly, Galumay?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 September 2022)

darien44 said:


> Any opinion on why the stock is performing so poorly, Galumay?



Mate if you don't put (at)galumay i.e. @galumay in,  the ASF system won't make galumay aware of your request.

gg


----------



## galumay (7 September 2022)

Not really, the market clearly holds a different view to me about valuation. What might I be missing that they are seeing? Perhaps normalised earnings/FCF look more like 2019? If I reverse engineer a share price of $6 i get an implied FCF of round 40c which would sit between 2019 and 2020. (when CDA was last round $6 I note!) Also concerns about the inventory? The continued, if lessened, reliance on detector business?

If that is the case I think the quality of the business is being misunderstood and some of the other metrics like re-investment rate and ROIIC as well as the lack of debt and cash hoard mean its probably more likely than not to continue to reward patient shareholders.


----------



## sptrawler (7 September 2022)

Now that Codan has sold Minetec to Caterpillar. July 2021 around the time of the peak value on the chart posted below.








						Caterpillar buys Minetec for underground tracking and data - Australian Mining
					

Caterpillar has agreed to purchase mining data and communications company Minetec for approximately $US14 million ($18.07 million) from Codan.




					www.australianmining.com.au
				




 Are Codan back to just being a metal detector company? If so could the negative outlook be due to the elevated fuel prices dampening outback travel, the opening of the borders reducing the prospector traffic and the possible excess stock on the second hand market post covid? Also add to the previous issues, the fact increasing interest rates will reduce disposable income, especially for luxury items.


----------



## galumay (8 September 2022)

No, @sptrawler, the opposite really, the other sectors have grown strongly, comms is now 50% of revs. But I think its possible that concern about the excess inventory and potentially lower sales of detectors for the reasons you stated, are driving investor sentiment about CDA.


----------



## finicky (14 September 2022)

Chart's dodgy now but couldn't resist a bid for 1,000 more @ 6.05. Low today so far is 6.04.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (15 September 2022)

finicky said:


> Chart's dodgy now but couldn't resist a bid for 1,000 more @ 6.05. Low today so far is 6.04.



Nice .... and , now the panic has subsided


----------



## finicky (15 September 2022)

Yes, was taking off as I was posting and didn't look back so my bid didn't fill - that would be like winning, haha. Leaving it sit. Do the opposite.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 September 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Nice .... and , now the panic has subsided
> 
> View attachment 146864





finicky said:


> Yes, was taking off as I was posting and didn't look back so my bid didn't fill - that would be like winning, haha. Leaving it sit. Do the opposite.



Interesting. 

gg


----------



## mullokintyre (15 September 2022)

finicky said:


> Yes, was taking off as I was posting and didn't look back so my bid didn't fill - that would be like winning, haha. Leaving it sit. Do the opposite.



I think a lot of traders read this forum and act accordingly.
They hang on your every word @finicky .
You have become a market maker.
Mick


----------



## finicky (15 September 2022)

I worry about that


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 September 2022)

finicky said:


> I worry about that



At least you don't ever say those four letters of doom. 

DYOR

 

gg


----------



## finicky (21 September 2022)

finicky said:


> Chart's dodgy now but couldn't resist a bid for 1,000 more @ 6.05



Just got filled, yippee  pprice now $6.00
Not exceptional negative volume but a new 12 month low. Hard not to believe Garpal isn't right about an unannounced hidden problem lurking.

Maybe in a future gold bull market and resurgent buying of metal detectors I'll be cruising on CDA dividends. Hopefully also another war or two for land mine detectors and field communications. Throw in some El Nina floods and wildfires too for emergency services land radio products demand.


----------



## galumay (26 September 2022)

Bought some more today, averaging up is never easy and I spent a lot of time thinking, researching, analysing and writing before I developed enough conviction!


----------



## qldfrog (26 September 2022)

galumay said:


> Bought some more today, averaging up is never easy and I spent a lot of time thinking, researching, analysing and writing before I developed enough conviction!



Offliaded mine today after loss


----------



## finicky (26 September 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Offloaded mine today after loss



Sorry to hear that. I've given up trying to interpret the chart of CDA after recent discouragements. Probably to the relief of some.
Codan not all that long ago was very overvalued at $19, or whatever it was, and we discussed that candidly here as holders. At an earlier time it was massively undervalued at around 50c, mostly due to fears over Chinese Minelab counterfeiters I suspect. My hope now is that there is nothing too bad being concealed but I won't be adding again until the chart is showing strength. This is one of the more harrowing stock price collapses I've been through.

Held


----------



## sptrawler (26 September 2022)

finicky said:


> My hope now is that there is nothing too bad being concealed but I won't be adding again until the chart is showing strength. This is one of the more harrowing stock price collapses I've been through.
> 
> Held



You haven't lived, until you have ridden a couple into the ground.
I thought ION was a winner, won the contract to supply engines to Holden, what could go wrong?🤪
Codan have been around for a long time, they should know the ropes and adjust to market.









						VE NEWS: Holden defends local content
					

Holden boss hits back at reports Commodore is using fewer Australian parts and suppliers, reports IAN PORTER.




					www.smh.com.au
				



GMH has also been a victim of poor management in the parts industry. A key supplier to its engine operations, Ion, collapsed and went into administration last year even as it was building a new plant to start making aluminium engine blocks for Holden.

As a result of the Ion collapse, Holden has been forced to import engine blocks, and also cylinder heads, for the V6 engines, sharply cutting the local content of the motors, and the car.


----------



## galumay (26 September 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Offliaded mine today after loss



 Sorry to hear that mate, take good care of my hard earned cash there!


----------



## InsvestoBoy (26 September 2022)

galumay said:


> Sorry to hear that mate, take good care of my hard earned cash there!




dear lord, please post your size/price/timestamp, I feel like if two ASF members actually verifiably crossed in the book that would be the greatest thing that ever happened on this forum.


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## galumay (26 September 2022)

$5.68 3508 shares. Commsec doenst have a time stamp, but pre-open or open as the order was placed after close y'day.


----------



## qldfrog (26 September 2022)

galumay said:


> $5.68 3508 shares. Commsec doenst have a time stamp, but pre-open or open as the order was placed after close y'day.



mine triggered by SL trailing sell:
1600@5.51


----------



## galumay (26 September 2022)

Oh well, no fairy tale there then! Sorry @InsvestoBoy


----------



## KevinBB (26 September 2022)

finicky said:


> Sorry to hear that. I've given up trying to interpret the chart of CDA after recent discouragements. Probably to the relief of some.
> Codan not all that long ago was very overvalued at $19, or whatever it was, and we discussed that candidly here as holders. At an earlier time it was massively undervalued at around 50c, mostly due to fears over Chinese Minelab counterfeiters I suspect. My hope now is that there is nothing too bad being concealed but I won't be adding again until the chart is showing strength. This is one of the more harrowing stock price collapses I've been through.
> 
> Held



Are you old enough to remember HIH? It was the first equity purchase in my newly started SMSF in about 2000.

Its long ago to laugh about now, but will never forget that one.

KH


----------



## frugal.rock (28 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> dear lord, please post your size/price/timestamp, I feel like if two ASF members actually verifiably crossed in the book that would be the greatest thing that ever happened on this forum.




In disarray I findeth this exclamation, your Eminence, for surely thou presence amongst our midst 'tis by far the most noblest of events? 🤭


----------



## InsvestoBoy (28 September 2022)

galumay said:


> Oh well, no fairy tale there then! Sorry @InsvestoBoy



I continue to live in hope.


----------



## finicky (29 September 2022)

Any views on current price upticks?
I thought of the long downtrend in Whitehaven Coal (WHC) the other day, I hope there is an analogy to be made. That relentless downtrend in WHC, where the price had deteriorated to a such degree that it didn't make sense against what seemed to be fundamental considerations, e.g - just for two, that WHC did little business with China and therefore should not be greatly affected by CCP sanctions, or that appetite for coal was rising not stalling. But the miserable chart imposed a tyranny on my mind which is not a naturally contrarian one. Even when the chart showed signs of reversal and then actually did reverse I felt the market knew something I didn't.


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## galumay (29 September 2022)

No view on current price, now I have finished buying! Ask me in 5 years.

The only analogy with WHC I can draw is that like CDA at $18, anyone buying at current prices is going to get rekt, (for different reasons).


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## finicky (30 September 2022)

Tacked on 500 shares today. If galumay has gone wild and thrown caution to the winds it must be time to buy.
Contradicts what I said earlier about waiting for a strong chart signal. About all that's happened is that price peeked ourside the best fit downtrend yesterday after an indecisive day. Also some mild momentum divergence.
My analogy to WHC was just from a recent experience of doubt and hesitation when the market relentlessly disagrees with my valuation.


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## finicky (4 October 2022)

A mad scramble for Codan shares today.




3 Mth Daily


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 October 2022)

So what’s the go with CDA @finicky and @InvestoBoy. 

A bit of movement this month. 

I’m still watching it. 

gg


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## finicky (6 October 2022)

I dare not speak (almost).
I'm holding my breath and also my cash.
My take is that the daily looks a hope with a tiny higher dip and peak and now outside the recent downtrend. Today caught my interest with no change in the closing price on firm volume. Could that mean some stealthy accumulation. Undecided myself.
The monthly shows nothing to take heart from at all imo.

Held
Hold

Monthly


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## finicky (7 October 2022)

Miniscule volume at noon today but CDA  underperforming market. Gap has filled; next week should be testing. I'm undecided as to whether it's the pause that refreshes with controlled looking buying/selling last few days or if it's keeling over. Anyway galumay has the opportunity to sell @ 5.88 for about breakeven after costs if he feels this thread has distracted him.


galumay said:


> $5.68 3508




Daily


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 October 2022)

finicky said:


> Miniscule volume at noon today but CDA  underperforming market. Gap has filled; next week should be testing. I'm undecided as to whether it's the pause that refreshes with controlled looking buying/selling last few days or if it's keeling over. Anyway galumay has the opportunity to sell @ 5.88 for about breakeven after costs if he feels this thread has distracted him.
> 
> 
> Daily
> View attachment 147789



Yes there is lotsa red there. 

I might have a poke at it if it cracks a higher high next week. 

Emphasis on “might”. 

gg


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## finicky (7 October 2022)

Geez, some really cautious b☆stards around here.


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## galumay (7 October 2022)

finicky said:


> Anyway galumay has the opportunity to sell @ 5.88 for about breakeven after costs if he feels this thread has distracted him.




LOL! I hope to never sell, my hodling period is forever whenever possible. No distraction for me.


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## finicky (13 October 2022)

Bid in today for 500 CDA @ 5.03 - must be at the top of the queue by now.
There are two forces at work here: the smart money and the dumb money, and I think it's pretty clear on which side of the fence I stand


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## galumay (13 October 2022)

No doubt in my mind, @finicky.


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## frugal.rock (13 October 2022)

If detector sales are around 60% of their income, I'd be a little worried.
Gold price cycle plus inflation plus impending doom recession from the depths of depression sort of implies detector sales will be critical moving forward. Great company though.
Dr Bruce Candy is a legend. Is he still in Minelab?


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## frugal.rock (17 October 2022)

History : HALCRO
					

The world's only Super-Fidelity amplifiers




					halcro.com
				




"In 2008 Minelab was acquired by Codan, a large military communications company, because of the synergistic fit with their mine detection capability.  Codan had no interest in Halcro so the company was retained by the original shareholders and shelved.  This was in part due to the fact that what Codan were really buying was Bruce Candy’s genius and Halcro was seen as a distraction for his time.

Halcro briefly licensed their products to be manufactured by Vivid Audio but unfortunately this came to an end with the onset of the Global Financial Crisis.  So the Halcro assets were mothballed and left in storage."

Halcrow sounds like a product that should/ could be in everyone's TV, phone, amplifier... anything that makes sound to listen to.
Meanwhile CDA price just gets "even cheaper". 🧐


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## Dona Ferentes (26 October 2022)

CDA hammered - down 12%.  AGM time and perhaps *Outlook *not favourable?


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## MannyTheMemmoth (26 October 2022)

******* cheaters, they dumped their stock and held onto bad news for 2 months after their annual result.


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## MannyTheMemmoth (26 October 2022)

It will be down 20% by end of the day, may be sub 3 in few weeks.


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## Dona Ferentes (26 October 2022)




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## mullokintyre (26 October 2022)

The Chairmans address  says that Africa is the problem area.
Sales well down in Africa, with FY23 not looking much better.
The growth is coming from the Comms side of the business,  now up to 30% of total revenue, and expected to get a little bigger.
Sales up due to acquisitions, NPAt up3%, EBITDA up 2%.
The problem is the cash generation
Still negative cash flow which they forecast to improve to a positive rate in  the second half of the fin year.
Will wait until I am sure that  it has bottomed out  before piling in.
Mick


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## galumay (26 October 2022)

An opportunity to pick some more up for me, my conservative valuation already allowed for the telegraphed and expected difficulties in Africa. I suspect it will get even cheaper in the short term so no rush to accumulate. Market is now pricing it like 2019 when NPAT was about $45m, given they are guiding for somewhere over $50m I think that misjudges the company somewhat. No doubt though, the continued negative FCF will have spooked those with shorter term horizons. 

I guess it helps to have been through a similar series of issues 10 years ago with CDA, they got as low as 60c then before the steady run up to $18, its not like its a business under financial stress.


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## mullokintyre (26 October 2022)

AS long as they can fix the cash flow issue, things should be ok.
Happy to buy in at lower prices for the long term.
Mick


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## finicky (26 October 2022)

I'm absolutely sure we had all the information at our fingertips that the recent sellers did.


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## mullokintyre (26 October 2022)

finicky said:


> I'm absolutely sure we had all the information at our fingertips that the recent sellers did.



My problem is my arms seem longer these days and my sight is getting poorer.
Don't always see those little things at the ends of my fingers.
mick


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## finicky (26 October 2022)

If trusting in today's guidance, based on the predicted FY23 alone and usIng the lower end of estimated NPAT then CDA is worth a minimum of $4. This assumes no recovery to earlier levels of profitability and conservative calcs e.g I have used only a 2x multiple of FY22 book value for an assumed 12% ROE in FY23.
As suggested by galumay I have used FY19 NPAT for comparison where NPAT was $47m and ROE was 21% but BV was only 1.18 in FY19 whereas it was 2.03 in FY22 so this reduces expected ROE by  factor of 0.58
Again conservative if going by guidance as that would optimitically suggest something higher than $50m NPAT for FY23.


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## finicky (26 October 2022)

We were told before about end of Covid restrictions affecting Minelab sales in Africa and political turmoil but I don't think we were told that in Sudan, our biggest source of customers, the army coup leaders are stealing the artisans' mining fields.


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## mullokintyre (26 October 2022)

Had a low ball bid in at 3.88 that got picked off today.
reasonably happy with that figure.
Mick


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## finicky (26 October 2022)

Yes got a small bid in at same price.
Lost trust in management though. Inconsistently I am still using their guidance to form a rough idea of current value based on guided FY23.


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## galumay (26 October 2022)

I think I will wait, no doubt when the H1 report comes out with the telegraphed -'ve cashflow and drop in NPAT, the market will dump CDA even further, even though its well and truly priced in. Its a lesson it took me a while to learn, sentiment keeps dropping way past any rational point, (just as it goes up past it, think $18).


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## finicky (3 November 2022)

Two directors buying on market:

G Barclay, announced 02 Nov, 60,000 shrs @ 3.84 = $230k
K Gramp,  announced 01 Nov 12,500 shrs @ 3.88 = $48k


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## MannyTheMemmoth (3 November 2022)

finicky said:


> Two directors buying on market:
> 
> G Barclay, announced 02 Nov, 60,000 shrs @ 3.84 = $230k
> K Gramp,  announced 01 Nov 12,500 shrs @ 3.88 = $48k



I hope it recovers in 1-2 years time. I bought when it was 8, under 50k atm.
P.S. I am a noob.


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## finicky (3 November 2022)

@MannyTheMemmoth 9 years ago 'the market' makers thought CDA was worth 50c. So they can be very wrong. Before recent updated guidance I thought CDA was worth *at least* $8. Consolingly we'll likely continue to be paid franked dividends while we wait and see. It's usual to see director buying as a good sign but they can jump the gun in order to send a positive signal to the market. The chart I am afraid is not that reassuring at the moment, although we are back at the 2020 Wuhan virus level. Patience I guess.

Held


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## MannyTheMemmoth (3 November 2022)

finicky said:


> @MannyTheMemmoth 9 years ago 'the market' makers thought CDA was worth 50c. So they can be very wrong. Before recent updated guidance I thought CDA was worth *at least* $8. Consolingly we'll likely continue to be paid franked dividends while we wait and see. It's usual to see director buying as a good sign but they can jump the gun in order to send a positive signal to the market. The chart I am afraid is not that reassuring at the moment, although we are back at the 2020 Wuhan virus level. Patience I guess.
> 
> Held



Thanks for sharing, really appreciate it. Yes I am going to hold for longer(few yrs). The only thing is money is stuck now and can't put anymore. Anyway learning a few lessons by losing quick money. Based on my little knowledge in this field, seems like this may take years to turn around unless some big takeover rejected bid


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 November 2022)

finicky said:


> Two directors buying on market:
> 
> G Barclay, announced 02 Nov, 60,000 shrs @ 3.84 = $230k
> K Gramp,  announced 01 Nov 12,500 shrs @ 3.88 = $48k



Jayzoo !!

Not held.

I remember trading CDA - buy above $9 something, - sell above $12 something. And not that long ago.

I guess hanging in is worthwhile at these prices. It also might be an idea to call or visit one of their offices or manufacturing plants to find out what is happening. 

This may not be easy as their website although flash doesn't actually say anything about front office presence except that they are located ALL OVER THE WORLD, INCLUDING EVER DARK LITTLE SH*THOLE YOU'D NEVER WANT TO VISIT. 

Their board imo is "challenged", but has the usual corporate governance gumph, but much of the under the hood info is out of date unless you are one of the cousins with whom they deal. 

These outfits usually do well during wars and a low $AUD, so I'm surprised the SP is still falling. 

I may have to visit Miss Moneypenny in her Retirement Village to find out what the go is.  

gg


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## finicky (9 November 2022)

A Livewire article that might throw up an idea or two if you're into insider buying. Codan is in the top 10 of director buying over recent two weeks. I see that Reliance (RWC) has 4 directors buying significant amounts and a crapped out chart. The most magificent on market gesture came from someone with MFF Capital (MFF)









						Nine stocks insiders are buying - and why it matters
					

We’ve recently seen the running of the race that stops that nation, the Melbourne Cup. If ever there was an event where the ‘inside running’ could provide a material benefit, this is it.  And no, I’m not talking about the race day scuttlebutt that sweeps the yard and leads...




					www.livewiremarkets.com


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## finicky (15 November 2022)

Why I'll Sell My Codan (ASX: CDA) Shares - A Rich Life
					

Mea culpa. I underestimated Sudan's risk to Codan (ASX: CDA) and I've lost money as a result.




					arichlife.com.au
				




Claude Walker selling out of Codan. The article dated Oct 26 now sent to free newsletter subscribers. Reckons the management was misleadingly reassuring over the decline in Minelab sales. That was certainly my feeling. All the commentary to us hoi polloi had been pretty benign, yet someone(s) was bailing out buckets of shares into the market. Then the hammer drops and the coup issue in the Sudan is suddenly a big deal and overall sales of Minelab have dropped almost in half. Thinks they've mismanaged the situation and drop in cashflow a big turn off. Mostly though a matter of lost trust. Anyway, as he said himself, he's just one guy (an over analytical one who gets lost in the convolutions of his own logic in my book; been wrong before e.g. XRO buying early)

*Why I plan to sell my Codan shares.*


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## mullokintyre (15 November 2022)

finicky said:


> Why I'll Sell My Codan (ASX: CDA) Shares - A Rich Life
> 
> 
> Mea culpa. I underestimated Sudan's risk to Codan (ASX: CDA) and I've lost money as a result.
> ...



Thats the final straw.
Sold out this morning.
A small profit on the 3.88  I paid for the last lot, the rest a big  loss.
Moving on, looking to at something else.
mick


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## frugal.rock (15 November 2022)

My question is, why would you chop the photo down. What a weird world and weird people in it...









						The Best Beach and Saltwater Metal Detector
					

Detecting at ocean beaches is the dream of most detectorist. Plenty of gold and silver to be found, incredible views, great weather, and beautiful bikini clad women swinging detectors…Okay th…




					diggersreview.wordpress.com


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## Dona Ferentes (15 November 2022)

there's an element of conceit in calling subscribers "Supporters" . That's like being a customer at the hospital.


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## MannyTheMemmoth (15 November 2022)

Thats what I was saying in my first ever reply. They did not release the info at result announcement and only after 2 months in general meeting they dropped the bomb. Their justification was that they did not know the real depth of the issue and only got to know when couple of their team members got a chance to fly few days ago and suddenly it's %50 less sales forecast. That's sounds very dodgy. Surprisingly the stock kept going down from 8+ to 4.8 without any news during those 2 months. Obviously people with insider info were selling slowly and then they released the info once that was over?
Me being naive kept buying to average out and now under a loss of 50k. Can't sell, have forgotten about it, will check back in 1 year.



finicky said:


> Why I'll Sell My Codan (ASX: CDA) Shares - A Rich Life
> 
> 
> Mea culpa. I underestimated Sudan's risk to Codan (ASX: CDA) and I've lost money as a result.
> ...


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## finicky (15 November 2022)

I'm holding too, but this rally since the October guidance plunge is looking weak. I don't remember seeing a bottom form on other stocks with action like this.

Held

Daily (50, 100 dmas)


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## MannyTheMemmoth (15 November 2022)

finicky said:


> I'm holding too, but this rally since the October guidance plunge is looking weak. I don't remember seeing a bottom form on other stocks with action like this.
> 
> Held
> 
> ...



I know too little but I don't think it's a rally or otherwise, it's just horizontal and following the broader market sentiment, next management update(half year result) will take it to either 5+ or 2+.


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## mullokintyre (15 November 2022)

finicky said:


> I don't remember seeing a bottom form on other stocks with action like this.



its a bottom to rival Kim Kardashian's , and about as attractive.
Mick


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## Dona Ferentes (15 November 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> its a bottom to rival Kim Kardashian's , and about as attractive.



can't make up its mind


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## MannyTheMemmoth (15 November 2022)

Codan to supply HF radio technology for Bushmaster - Australian Manufacturing Forum
					

Codan Communications is to supply RF technology to Raytheon Australia which will ultimately be fitted to Australia’s Bushmaster protected mobility vehicles. The Adelaide company has been selected by Raytheon Australia to develop and supply a High Frequency (HF) Amplifier and Antenna System as an...




					www.aumanufacturing.com.au


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## finicky (8 December 2022)

Creeping along in these obscure and doubtful days. Good day for Chalice Mines (CHN) so sold 1,000 of those at market for avg 6.19 and bought 1,000 CDA @ 3.76
Cheaper price than director buying a month ago anyway.
I have to fence-sit and say that the chart is ambiguous to me, the ice might be cracking below but on the other hand volume is low and daily momentum is mildly encouraging. I must say again that I don't recall any other stock bottoming like this, so for all I know, maybe down to 3.50 (or worse)?

Daily


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 December 2022)

finicky said:


> Creeping along in these obscure and doubtful days. Good day for Chalice Mines (CHN) so sold 1,000 of those at market for avg 6.19 and bought 1,000 CDA @ 3.76
> Cheaper price than director buying a month ago anyway.
> I have to fence-sit and say that the chart is ambiguous to me, the ice might be cracking below but on the other hand volume is low and daily momentum is mildly encouraging. I must say again that I don't recall any other stock bottoming like this, so for all I know, maybe down to 3.50 (or worse)?
> 
> ...



Just from the chart, @finicky , I am not optimistic. 

gg


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## MannyTheMemmoth (8 December 2022)

I guess Feb half year result or any profit downgrade/upgrade before Feb result will make or break. Right now it's following the market and fluctuating around 3.7 - 4 mark.
They very well could be wrong in their forecast and may upgrade or downgrade in Jan?


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## finicky (8 December 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just from the chart, @finicky , I am not optimistic.



Me neither must admit


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## MannyTheMemmoth (8 December 2022)

Yes, looking bad for now, will wait for Feb results. 
But I had seen their whole presentation few weeks ago, again. It did not look as bad as the stock price is, but the management was not interested in answering anything related to stock price and were not too keen to listen to share holders suggestion for marketing Codan better and why don't they reach out to Australia army to sell more to which his summary was it's tricky and lengthy dealing with govt and not worth the time. Sorry that's my interpretation, I am not that smart.


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## sptrawler (8 December 2022)

My guess is ATM the last thing on peoples minds is going metal detecting.
Underground communications is going to be the go to growth, how is codan going with that technology?


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## finicky (8 December 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Underground communications




Haven't checked properly but I think that's the defunct Minetec division that you're referring to and that was sold off to Caterpillar. l don't think they made anything out of it; they expressed high hopes for that technology once, saying it would be like a third pillar of Codan.


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## finicky (17 December 2022)

Last year there was a trading update on 25 Jan and then H1 result was 17 Feb.
With this thing I've got for Codan, I doubt that I can wait that long.
On Friday the biggest volume came after market and made the high of the day. Might mean something?

Held

15 minute chart


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## MannyTheMemmoth (17 December 2022)

I too saw that upside volume on Friday close and it did feel a little unusual specially when you compare with overall stock market but it is too early and volume was not that significant, higher then recent days but still not high enough to draw anything, if the momentum goes up next week, may be something's cooking.


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 December 2022)

finicky said:


> Last year there was a trading update on 25 Jan and then H1 result was 17 Feb.
> With this thing I've got for Codan, I doubt that I can wait that long.
> On Friday the biggest volume came after market and made the high of the day. Might mean something?
> 
> ...



Could there be a capital raise in the wind?

gg


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## MannyTheMemmoth (22 December 2022)

Going by last few weeks, seems to be bottoming at 3.7, 3.8 for now? January/Feb update, make or break?


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## finicky (22 December 2022)

Looks interesting, been watching it too - I would normally be adding a few on a pulllback, assuming there'll be one. Looks better on a daily chart (with strong momentum divergence) than on a weekly. 10 day chart has trended strongly. I'm trying not to lower my cash.

Held

10 Day,  15 minute intervals


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## Knobby22 (23 December 2022)

finicky said:


> Looks interesting, been watching it too - I would normally be adding a few on a pulllback, assuming there'll be one. Looks better on a daily chart (with strong momentum divergence) than on a weekly. 10 day chart has trended strongly. I'm trying not to lower my cash.
> 
> Held
> 
> ...



Kogan has taken over Brosa, E commerce furniture business that had gone broke for only $1.5 mil. 
I think that may be the reason for the rise.


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## Dona Ferentes (23 December 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> Kogan has taken over Brosa, E commerce furniture business that had gone broke for only $1.5 mil.
> I think that may be the reason for the rise.



Got a rise from me


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## finicky (23 December 2022)

Um .. 🤔


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## MannyTheMemmoth (30 December 2022)

Today's upside was in accordance with market or something more to it?


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## finicky (30 December 2022)

@MannyTheMemmoth a good close for the week. Easily beat the indices today, e.g small ordinaries (XSO) was only up 0.95%. Trouble is the volume for CDA which reveals lack of sellers rather than strong buyer interest. Still apprehensive about the price chart. Lost trust in management's transparency.
I've decided to take a cue from Felix Zulauf who can be found with a search on Youtube - I am trying to hold off buying anything in the expectation of a poor first quarter. He thinks the rest of 2023 should be good for U.S stocks as he expects the Fed's hand on rates to be forced. If I miss out on more CDA so be it.

Held


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## MannyTheMemmoth (Friday at 6:42 PM)

339900 after hours sale, is this Anything significant?


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## rcw1 (Friday at 7:00 PM)

MannyTheMemmoth said:


> View attachment 151326
> 
> 339900 after hours sale, is this Anything significant?



Good afternoon MannyTheMemmoth,
Just check announcements for CDA on your platform tomorrow and see whether it was a 'Charge in Directors Interest'.  Note that there has been a number of instances in November 2022.

Have a very nice weekend.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## finicky (Friday at 7:06 PM)

No, note the overall volume for the day isn't exceptional. 
LT XT means late cross trade. I don't really get it, but It's probably something to do with brokers tidying up closely matched bids and offers after close on Friday, the last day of the week. Stop jumping at shadows.


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## peter2 (Monday at 2:48 PM)

I'm eyeing a reversal BO opp with *CDA* on a close > 4.20.


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