# Bailout has been approved... where to now?



## Tysonboss1 (4 October 2008)

Well the US congress has Approved the amended Bail out package,

Where happens from here,... Will the ASX rally on Tuesday,...


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## CanOz (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*



Tysonboss1 said:


> Well the US congress has Approved the amended Bail out package,
> 
> Where happens from here,... Will the ASX rally on Tuesday,...




Probably depends on what happens Monday night in the US. SPI futures are closed at 4704 now.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Aussiejeff (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*

Well, if the the last 3 hour plummet of a whopping [size=+2]-500 pts [/size]for the DJIA  - after George used his "invisible ink" pen to sign the Bailout Bill into legislation - is any indication, it won't be pretty.... even less so with the DOW futures now sitting at -193 pts!


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## Nyden (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*

Why would anyone really expect gains from this though? It was widely, almost *unanimously* expected to pass by the markets. Folk were just trying to make money into the lead up; now that it's eventuated ... well ... :goodnight


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## Tysonboss1 (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*

well atleast we have a public holiday on monday so there is still a full day of trading in the US to settle any jitters before we open on tuesday.


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## Aussiejeff (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*



Nyden said:


> Why would anyone really expect gains from this though? It was widely, almost *unanimously* expected to pass by the markets. Folk were just trying to make money into the lead up; now that it's eventuated ... well ... :goodnight




Admit it, Nyden, you've been "dying" to use that smilie for a while now.... :couch


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## Nyden (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*



Tysonboss1 said:


> well atleast we have a public holiday on monday so there is still a full day of trading in the US to settle any jitters before we open on tuesday.




Unless the US falls hard on Monday  Then we'll need to cram 2 days of losses into 1! 

 ... People can get very anxious over a long weekend; especially when there are losses globally. Might just have a lot of people with their finger on the trigger come Tuesday


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## Aussiejeff (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*



Tysonboss1 said:


> well atleast we have a public holiday on monday so there is still a full day of trading in the US to settle any jitters before we open on tuesday.




I think the ASX still opens on Monday. Only a public holiday in NSW, ACT and SA. The only change is that no share settlements will take place on Monday. So, no shelter in the dugout AFAIK.


Cheers,

aj


_ASX Trading calendar - 2008

Non-business and non-trading days for 2008

The following table sets out the days when ASX is closed for business and/or settlement. Please read in conjunction with the footnotes. Information on trading hours is also available.

Public Holiday 	Date 	Applies to the following States 	*Trading Day1* 	Settlement Activity 

Labour Day 	Monday 6 October 	NSW / SA / ACT 	*Open* 	        No Settlement_


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## psychic (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*

*ASX IS OPEN ON MONDAY, BUT NO SETTLEMENT*

Source: 

http://www.asx.com.au/about/operational/trading_calendar/asx/2008.htm


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## Prospector (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*

Thought I read somewhere that European markets were up on the news.  And yep, market open Monday - always has been on this PH (for some).

Yep, up around 2%
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24445122-31037,00.html


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## Aussiejeff (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*



Prospector said:


> Thought I read somewhere that European markets were up on the news.  And yep, market open Monday - always has been on this PH (for some).




Euro markets were closing when the DOW was still way up with signing about to take place. It was the three hours following the "invisible ink" that did the damage (while Europe was zzzzzz-ing). I suspect Euromarkets will follow suit on Monday...


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## Prospector (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*



Aussiejeff said:


> Euro markets were closing when the DOW was still way up with signing about to take place. It was the three hours following the "invisible ink" that did the damage (while Europe was zzzzzz-ing). I suspect Euromarkets will follow suit on Monday...





So why did the article use this as the reason for the rise:
_EUROPEAN stock markets closed sharply higher overnight as hopes the US Congress would pass a multi-billion-dollar bank rescue package offset a much weaker-than-expected US employment report. _

I wonder what the market would have done if the bailout wasn't approved.  I know, plummet!  So what was the point of the bailout then?


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## white_goodman (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*

i reckon there will be another upmove on Monday, but until they fix the libor rate and eliminate banks that cant be saved, itll be going down down down


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## Porper (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*



Prospector said:


> So what was the point of the bailout then?





Well, the bail out wasn't to stabalize wall street or world stock markets.

Some thought the agreement would do this and I know Bush and his impressive advisors were using this as one of their selling points.All of the rescue tactics have caused a very brief rally followed by large sell downs, hard to see this latest ploy changing that trend.

At least it is out of the way now and the markets can find the direction of least resistance.

A nice long wave 3 down hopefully


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## tech/a (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*



> *So what was the point of the bailout then? *




*To stop the knock on effect of bank bankruptcies.*

Just imagine one of our banks simply shuts the doors.
(1) Businesses go bankrupt.
(2) Houses foreclose in multiples as clients are now without cash.
(3) There would be runs on every other bank --people grabbing every cent they could get.
(4) Hysteria---food and fuel stockpiling and very quickly----- un availablilty
(5) Lawlessness.

The list just goes on and on.
There had to be a bail out.

*BUT*
This just makes the situation worse and the markets are realising this.
Debt upon Debt just doesn't foster growth.

Inflation is just no longer a possibility.
A recession and a prolonged one in the US and elsewhere is in my view all that is left.
The massive gash has to be allowed to *bleed out.*The pressure of band-aid measures has simply built to such a point that even the biggest bandage of all (The bailout) ISNT stopping the hemorrhaging.

The effects will be felt world wide as US demand (Lack of) takes it toll on all of us in particular the emerging markets.
My feeling is that there will be a quick realisation and markets will fall quickly at first. But there will be no boom to follow more so a drifting of rather aimless market conditions while the whole bleeding process comes to a grinding end.

Having the ability to trade short is an important aspect for survival in these times and I suspect that trading of Futures and indices will be the best way to churn a $.
To trade shares will continue to see traders bleeding their own death.


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## korrupt_1 (4 October 2008)

well... how about that?

bailout rejected... DOW goes down
bailout accepted... DOW goes down

it's like a coin with 2 heads on it... toss a head and the DOW goes down....

you're damned if you do,... damned if you don't...

i wonder what the carnage would have been if they rejected it a second time around...


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## tech/a (4 October 2008)

The problem or bleeding lies here.
The US has to balance its debt ratio.

As one commentator put it.

*The canary in the mine shaft has died many times and now they think there is a defect in canaries!
*


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## Aussiejeff (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*



tech/a said:


> *To stop the knock on effect of bank bankruptcies.*
> 
> Just imagine one of our banks simply shuts the doors.
> (1) Businesses go bankrupt.
> ...




[size=+2]IS THERE A DOCTOR IN THE HOUSE.....????[/size]


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## 2020hindsight (4 October 2008)

Tyson
Where to now? - First thing I'm gonna do is enjoy a few deep breaths, lol ... 

:topic just an anecdote - bit of bs if you prefer ....  I just remember once - had a motorbike - one New Year's Night I went for a ride (under the grip of several grapes) - a girl on the back - no helmets - winding narrow gravelly road - almost went over a cliff on a curve - no crashrail - rocks and the Pacific below about 20 feet  ...

Next day I went back and spent several moments looking at the skidmark - noticing how the curve came to within a few inches of the edge 

But you're right, in general I agree that we can't always be looking backwards .. 

just that "praps it could be worse"


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## theasxgorilla (4 October 2008)

*Re: Bailout Has been approved,... where to now.*



Aussiejeff said:


> [size=+2]IS THERE A DOCTOR IN THE HOUSE.....????[/size]




We have one on the mod team...calling DoctorJ!


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## CanOz (4 October 2008)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/98481-bailout-bill-passes-what-happens-now


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## wayneL (4 October 2008)

CanOz said:


> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98481-bailout-bill-passes-what-happens-now






			
				Mish said:
			
		

> Will Printing Lead To Hyperinflation?
> 
> Many have asked if the actions of the government would lead to hyperinflation. Others mockingly told me that it would. Nope. The answer is the same: Deflation.
> 
> ...



I'm just an amateur, but this is what I've suspected all along as well.

Money might be being printed, but capital is getting destroyed at an even faster pace.

It's why gold hasn't done a moonshoot.


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## 2020hindsight (4 October 2008)

As some US politician said the other day :-.
It's one thing to talk about bailing out...
but what if the water is coming in faster?


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## jonojpsg (4 October 2008)

2020hindsight said:


> Tyson
> Where to now? - First thing I'm gonna do is enjoy a few deep breaths, lol ...
> 
> :topic just an anecdote - bit of bs if you prefer ....  I just remember once - had a motorbike - one New Year's Night I went for a ride (under the grip of several grapes) - a girl on the back - no helmets - winding narrow gravelly road - almost went over a cliff on a curve - no crashrail - rocks and the Pacific below about 20 feet  ...
> ...




Hey 2020,
Thanks for that story - it does help to keep things in perspective!  Haven't had anything quite that bad happen to me, but I can just imagine what it must have been like looking over the edge.

I keep reminding myself that although I have completely failed in protecting my capital over the past 12 months I can afford to learn from it rather than having to sell the house or put off retirement for another 5 years.  Hopefully I can work my way through the next couple of down years and set myself up to do the right thing the next time the market moves up (or should I say down given that my failure was in the move down?!)

Thanks again


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## 2020hindsight (4 October 2008)

jonojpsg said:


> ..and set myself up to do the right thing the next time the market moves up (or should I say down given that my failure was in the move down?!)



jono 
I'm guessing (in my total naivity) that it's something you only do once. (i.e. ride the market down this far) -  I've lost half my portfolio lol.  

My brother said long ago he wouldn't touch the market with a 40 foot pole - a friend at work likewise.   Did I listen?   no bludy way lol. 
 cheers 

PS here's to liberty, limb, life and love .. :bier:

PS dead serious m8 - it's important not to get depressed beyond "reason" (imo)


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## Porper (5 October 2008)

2020hindsight said:


> jono
> I'm guessing (in my total naivity) that it's something you only do once. (i.e. ride the market down this far) -  I've lost half my portfolio lol.




I think a lot of new traders are in the same position.

I would hazard a guess that the 5% figure of people making money recently would be high.

I read an interesting fact yesterday.Don't know how true it is.

The us bailout plan is for 700 billion, yet last Monday alone 1 Trillion was wiped off the  market.Not directly relevant, but it puts the numbers in perspective.


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## tech/a (5 October 2008)

Porper said:


> I think a lot of new traders are in the same position.
> 
> I would hazard a guess that the 5% figure of people making money recently would be high.
> 
> ...





Well Pete,I'm doing better than most banks,I havent lost 40% of my value!


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## Muschu (5 October 2008)

From what I have read, there seems to be a general anticipation that our market will go down tomorrow.
Then there seems to be an anticipation of some level of bounce if the Federal Bank cuts interest rates by .25 to .5 of a % on Tuesday.
Any comment on such expectations?
Rick


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## Porper (5 October 2008)

tech/a said:


> Well Pete,I'm doing better than most banks,I havent lost 40% of my value!





Yes, I know John, but you are far from a beginner.

I suppose what I meant was that the % of winning traders in this market is tiny.

A lot of traders/investors could stop losing money now if they had a mentor and learnt how to survive this type of market.They are out there, worth every cent I reckon.

You don't have to be a Tech/A. T.Hand or Waynel etc to survive these times.

The trends will return but you need to be still in the game to profit from the good times ahead.

Anyway the bailout will save us all......yeah right.


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## CanOz (5 October 2008)

Muschu said:


> From what I have read, there seems to be a general anticipation that our market will go down tomorrow.
> Then there seems to be an anticipation of some level of bounce if the Federal Bank cuts interest rates by .25 to .5 of a % on Tuesday.
> Any comment on such expectations?
> Rick




Every bounce that was rate cut induced was sold into quite heavily, can we really expect this one to be different with so many funds unwinding? I'd be selling the bounces for now.



Cheers,


CanOz


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## Green08 (5 October 2008)

Muschu said:


> From what I have read, there seems to be a general anticipation that our market will go down tomorrow.
> 
> Rick




Tomorrow is a Public Holiday.  They may go down Tuesday.


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## agro (5 October 2008)

hopefully the DOW bounces Monday Night so we have a good lead Tuesday


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## explod (5 October 2008)

Green08 said:


> Tomorrow is a Public Holiday.  They may go down Tuesday.




Only in those small states which includes NSW.   Victoria will carry the can for ya.

The Dow closed at its lowest level in 3 years and is near to falling out of support which goes back 5 years.   With the uncertainty around now many will err on the side of caution and get out.  A further drop of the Dow (the size of last week) will see it soon cascade down to 8,000 and if it falls through that it will return to dust at 3 or 4,000.


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## Green08 (5 October 2008)

agro said:


> hopefully the DOW bounces Monday Night so we have a good lead Tuesday




Interesting to see how the residents of American will react to this over the weekend.  If the government of Australia did this to me, no matter who was in, I would not be impressed. I would assume the DOW will go down though it seems to have little relevance to the news prior or future to it lately. I'm not in so will wait.  The predicitions have gone from 2008 to 2009 to 2010 for a recovery.  I can't remember who said it though they predicted Super Funds to show a negative for the next two years. Just by watching the activity in the world on all fronts it seems possible.


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## Porper (5 October 2008)

explod said:


> A further drop of the Dow (the size of last week) will see it soon cascade down to 8,000 and if it falls through that it will return to dust at 3 or 4,000.




The Dow at 3000. ?

If that's the case you may be sleeping under that barbed wire fence you were talking about explod.

I am bearish but 3000 is a bit too scary to think about.

If we get there, none of us will be posting on here for a start.That is about an 80% drop from recent highs.Never say never but almost impossible, hopefully.


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## skyQuake (5 October 2008)

Dow fell 500pts after that signing, people weren't happy either way!


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## 2020hindsight (5 October 2008)

skyQuake said:


> Dow ...  etc !



I agree with the old bloke down the road - it would ( maybe? surely?) be a great time to buy into the market.  (i.e. There's a fortune to be made if you can wait a few years). 

So , if that's right, and if I should be buying - (and it's too late to cry over spilt milk  i.e. I should have stayed in cash when I was 100% cash 30Jun but didn't) - then why would it make sense to sell now - at the bottom (?) of the market?  

Disclaimer - please ignore both me and the old bloke down the road. 

:topic 
skyquake - that avatar of yours is a ripper lol. - breaks me up. 
you can get some funny photos with statues yes?


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## Tysonboss1 (5 October 2008)

It will be interesting to see what happens tommorow,...  that market is so far down already for last week, surly it can't drop much further.

Maybe those cheers leaders from todays game need to get down to the asx and organise some sort of rally.


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## fimmwolf (5 October 2008)

Muschu said:


> From what I have read, there seems to be a general anticipation that our market will go down tomorrow.
> Then there seems to be an anticipation of some level of bounce if the Federal Bank cuts interest rates by .25 to .5 of a % on Tuesday.
> Any comment on such expectations?
> Rick




The consensus seems to be that the RBA will drop rates by .5, but only .25 of that will likely be passed on to consumers by the banks. Meaning they, the banks, will keep a quarter percent for themselves in order to keep their heads above the rising water levels. (or so they will claim)


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## Julia (5 October 2008)

skyQuake said:


> Dow fell 500pts after that signing, people weren't happy either way!



I think the signing had already been factored in and the drop reflected the poor figures which came out in the US giving further weight to the recession claim.


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## skyQuake (5 October 2008)

2020hindsight, statues + angles + fast camera = awesome photos 



Tysonboss1 said:


> It will be interesting to see what happens tommorow,...  that market is so far down already for last week, surly it can't drop much further.



Why not? We still haven't see any proper real panicking yet!


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## bankit (6 October 2008)

_While this is a long piece it is well worth the read. The guy has an excellent take on many aspects of the current financial problems and the *likely outcome of events* - it is this last bit that makes for good reading._



http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/orlandini100508.html


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## spears (6 October 2008)

skyQuake said:


> 2020hindsight, statues + angles + fast camera = awesome photos
> 
> 
> Why not? We still haven't see any proper real panicking yet!




Agreed. Sep 29th was only a dress rehersal for the next big crash. Possibly tonight. 

Futures are already trading at 10,178. Who knows how many got squeezed on friday with margin calls.


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## korrupt_1 (6 October 2008)

bankit said:


> _While this is a long piece it is well worth the read. The guy has an excellent take on many aspects of the current financial problems and the *likely outcome of events* - it is this last bit that makes for good reading._
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/orlandini100508.html




damn... paints  very very bleak picture!!! thanks for sharing.

intetreting quote from, that article



> “The only way they can pass this bill is by creating and sustaining a panic atmosphere. That atmosphere is not justified. Many of us were told in private conversations that if we voted against this bill on Monday, the sky would fall, the market would drop 2000 to 3000 points the first day, another couple thousand points the second day, and a few members were even told there would be Martial Law in America if we voted no. That’s what I call fear mongering… The only way to pass a bad bill – keep the panic pressure on”.
> 
> Rep. Brad Sherman


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## spears (6 October 2008)

bankit said:


> _While this is a long piece it is well worth the read. The guy has an excellent take on many aspects of the current financial problems and the *likely outcome of events* - it is this last bit that makes for good reading._
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/orlandini100508.html




Great article!


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## [t..o..m] (6 October 2008)

bankit said:


> _While this is a long piece it is well worth the read. The guy has an excellent take on many aspects of the current financial problems and the *likely outcome of events* - it is this last bit that makes for good reading._
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/orlandini100508.html




Thanks for that article bankit, I found it very interested.


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## communique (6 October 2008)

[t..o..m] said:


> Thanks for that article bankit, I found it very interested.




I am not discrediting the author and I am sure we are in serious times but he stands to make a lot of money if everyone panicked and went to his website to buy gold.  

What I am saying is there is a lot of information being put out at the moment this is promoting panic, we all need to read where it is coming from and weigh up its legitimacy.  Who is the author, what do they stand to make out of it, can you substantiate facts.

I am just trying to be optimistic and logical whilst drowning in a sea of pessimism.


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## bankit (10 October 2008)

This is another good article which tells us in plain language how things are

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm


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## Aussiejeff (11 October 2008)

Uh-oh. Not boding well for next weeks markets.

The much-vaunted meeting of Gee-Whatsits has declared a plan - to "use all available tools" to "solve the financial crisis". Being a bunch of toss-pots, there should be no lack of "tools" to be found.

Chief Tool Mr Paulson has just stated the plan is essentially to buy directly into failing banks to shore them up, but has no definite timetable for this. Instead, he says "this is very complicated and it might take several weeks before the first funds become available". Do tell.

Hmmm. An indefinite _several weeks?_ That could be Paulson-speak for "After Xmas"

I think the markets reaction to that bombshell will be  - RUN AWAY!!!!


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## BradK (11 October 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> The much-vaunted meeting of Gee-Whatsits has declared a plan - to "use all available tools" to "solve the financial crisis". Being a bunch of toss-pots, there should be no lack of "tools" to be found.




Hahhaha... great stuff


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## Julia (11 October 2008)

Today's email from Colin Twiggs had this rather surprising comment about Henry Paulson.  Anyone agree with him?



> I was interested to read speculation about who should be the next Treasury Secretary. Candidates proposed were Warren Buffet, John Thain, Paul Volcker, Charles Summers and a host of eminent economists. To me there is only one rational choice: Henry Paulson. Given the circumstances I believe he has done well. And what the markets need now is consistency. You don't change horses mid-stream. I have read members of Congress questioning his integrity and accusations that he is "looking after his mates in Wall Street". While it would be natural to feel some loyalty to GS, the rest of Wall Street were his competitors, not his "mates", and I believe he has demonstrated overriding loyalty to his client: the taxpayer.
> 
> The blame game has started. It is human nature to seek a scapegoat when things are going badly. We must have our Jonah to cast overboard in the hope that this will calm the waters. The press are offering up Alan Greenspan and I dare say he shoulders some degree of responsibility. But this crisis is much bigger than a single individual. The entire system is at fault. There are millions of actors who have played their part, most of them unwittingly, including AG. In his defense, he expressed concern over the massive leverage of GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in early 2004, but attempts to curb this were blocked by Congress.


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## xyzedarteerf (12 October 2008)

Congressman Ron Paul Schools Bernanke on the Bailout Plan.


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## Wysiwyg (12 October 2008)

where to now?

I think it is strange how these political and financial power brokers act ONLY after complete turmoil.Surely the seriousness of securitised mortgages and the ensuing credit tightening was obvious to them long ago yet the action taken is slow and measured, like it is orchestrated so.

No prisoners. No prisoners. (Lawrence LOL )


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## grace (12 October 2008)

Wysiwyg said:


> where to now?
> 
> I think it is strange how these political and financial power brokers act ONLY after complete turmoil.Surely the seriousness of securitised mortgages and the ensuing credit tightening was obvious to them long ago yet the action taken is slow and measured, like it is orchestrated so.
> 
> No prisoners. No prisoners. (Lawrence LOL )




About 2 years ago, I read about a 3 page section in The Bulletin magazine warning of the CDO's CDS's causing a major banking meltdown.  Pity I didn't take it seriously, but the writer told the story how it is now unfolding.   I can't recall the writer, but he left The Bulletin after writing weekly for a long time (I should be able to recall.....)....he was on the ball!


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## Aussiejeff (13 October 2008)

In Bloomberg News today:

_"According to David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley's chief economist, the 2009 budget deficit could be close to *$2 trillion*, or 12.5 percent of gross domestic product, more than twice the record of 6 percent set in 1983". _

That's so far. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see that blow out further again by 2009. Economists say this will necessitate the US treasury "borrowing significantly more than expected at higher interest rates".

Umm. From whom shall they borrow "significantly more"? The Gulf states? China? Japan? How deep can this debt hole get??


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## bankit (15 October 2008)

There are some really raw facts in this article - essential reading in relation to what could happen and probably will given time. Gold will be the big winner in almost every event.

*A Coming New Currency!  http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/vaughn/2008/1014.html*


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## bankit (4 November 2008)

Another good article explaining the US banking system and the continual open abuse of it for over 100 years.

*Death of the American Empire *
*America is self-destructing & bringing the rest of the world down with it*

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10651

Cheers
Bankit


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## bankit (22 November 2008)

Hi all,

Looks as though the Great USA has had to go cap in hand for help.

I have not seen this reported elsewhere!

_KUWAIT CITY (AFP) ”” The United States has asked four oil-rich Gulf states for close to 300 billion dollars to help it curb the global financial meltdown, Kuwait's daily Al-Seyassah reported Thursday._
_Quoting "highly informed" sources, the daily said Washington has asked Saudi Arabia for 120 billion dollars, the United Arab Emirates for 70 billion dollars, Qatar for 60 billion dollars and was seeking 40 billion dollars from Kuwait._
_Al-Seyassah said Washington sought the amount as "financial aid" to face the fallout of the financial crisis and help prevent its economy from sliding into a painful recession._
_The daily said the United States plans to use the funds to help the ailing automobile industry, banks and other companies suffering from the global financial turmoil._
_The four nations, all members of OPEC, produce together 14 million barrels of oil per day, around half of the cartel's production and about 17 percent of world supplies._
_The four states are estimated to have amassed close to 1.5 trillion dollars in surplus in the past six years due to high oil prices that rocketed above 147 dollars in July before sliding to just above 50 dollars._
_The daily also said that the United States has asked Kuwait to forgive its Iraqi debt estimated at around 16 billion dollars. _

_Link is at: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081120/bs_afp/financeeconomyusgulf_081120072928_

Bankit


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