# STO - Santos Limited



## RichKid (16 February 2005)

STO has recovered strongly after some rough passages over the past, well above it's cyclical highs at $7. Gapped down heavily today on volume, looks like it is going lower to 8.50 (or 8) support. A lot of activity planned this year and the initial Jeruk assessments due by mid year too.

Any holders? Any views? I think STO has gotten ahead of itself, good drilling news will keep it steady but it may fall closer to recent trend in short term.

Longterm chart is monthly, short term is daily.


----------



## RichKid (17 February 2005)

*Re: STO Santos- Turnaround year?*

Saw in the FinReview that Santos has announced a downgrade to oil reserves in its Mutineer and Exeter fields off WA, expecting recoverable reserves of 61 million barrels rather than 101 million (a big difference). Apparently STO had been relying on those reserves to drive growth, probably explains the dramatic fall in the sp. BUT, apparently they'll bring forward production so that is supposed to help balance out the bad news. 

Let's see where the sp finds support.


----------



## 77TRADER77 (6 February 2006)

*STO (Santos)*

With 2006 Investment per last week ASX Announcement, and at its current price very nicely placed, hey all other Oil companies doubled in value in last 12 months, (compared to big brother Woodside who grabs glory). I'm thinking this stock could 'EXPLODE' in our faces..Hey Ive got none and Ive just talked myself into buying them. What attracts me is that secondary Drilling area (Woodside has primary) in Timor Sea. 
The astrological signs tell me (and my gambler/trader instinct), just kidding, tell me this share may be how I can purchase my ticket to the moon on Richard Branson's Rocket Express! 
Hell, Im having a go YO HO HO! 
Geez after reading this youll sell yours cheap to me cause yu think Im crakd!
Good Luck Traders.


----------



## clowboy (6 April 2006)

*STO in pre open*

Anyone know why STO is still in pre-open at 10.30AM?

I cant find any announcement's requesting it or the likes?


Thanx


----------



## powerkoala (6 April 2006)

Mulberry announcement makes STO jumps like crazy.
I suppose to buy went 11.40. Well another


----------



## clowboy (6 April 2006)

Can someone take a look at a recent chart of STO for me and tell me if it is a double bottom (is there such a thing?).

Was looking at chart tonite and noticed a W, am I right in taking that as a double bottom and if so am I right in thinking that would be a bullish sign?

Thanx


----------



## NettAssets (22 June 2006)

Don't know where all Santos' little holders are coming from - the last 10 trades turned over a total of 12000 shares and dropped the price a couple of cents
John


----------



## pacer (11 October 2006)

Santos may be a good short at the moment with all that mud flowing over all those houses and polluting that river in Indonesia....surprised it's still holding its ground but a small head and shoulders makes it a bit of an attractive short....only the price of oil rising will give it any stability.....pretty sure it was STO that caused all this anyway.

Just convinced myself that it's a short....gone 1500 cfd's for a look.


----------



## pacer (12 October 2006)

Fell 1.88% today......happy with that considering they are announcing oil plays they have found......they wiil try to keep the price from falling too much but it is still in the poo.....and excellent short for a few more days yet me thinks...the Indo mud is unstoppable......feel sorry for the residents and the environment...but it'll make me a Quid or two.....that's life!


----------



## arlee123 (31 October 2006)

*opinions please*

can anyone give some opinions on Santos...(STO)

cheers


----------



## Ken (31 October 2006)

*Re: opinions please*

STO is on track to achieve its FY06 production guidance of 60 to 61mmboe. Despite this, we had assumed a higher relative contribution from liquids in 3Q06. This results in a lower than expected average achieved price overall and our FY06 earnings forecast declines 5% to 134.8cps. Our FY07 forecast is little changed, nor our $12.65ps valuation. Long term assumptions remain US$60/bbl oil, A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.76 and a 10% discount rate. Substituting US$50/bbl oil decreases our valuation 23% to $9.95. 

Our Buy recommendation is retained and reflects an expectation of a long run annual return of 13%, above the 10% minimum required for a positive bias. Key risks remain commodity prices, cost pressures and comparatively short reserve life. The previously discussed Banjar Panji mud flow in Indonesia may negatively impact to an extent. Potential is for aggressive exploration strategies, in particular LNG targets in the Timor/Bonaparte region, to deliver a much needed cornerstone replacement asset for the mature Cooper Basin. Until they do STO will remain the poor cousin of Woodside.


----------



## CanOz (31 October 2006)

*Re: opinions please*

Well i'd like to have my 2 RMB worth here. From a technical point of view i think the weekly chart shows it could move into a period of consolidation. A break of the old support could be a bullish sign to moves higher.

Anyone else?


----------



## Realist (31 October 2006)

*Re: opinions please*

I know Pacer is shorting Santos. and has made a bit doing this.

My tip : wait... no hurry to get in at all...


----------



## arlee123 (31 October 2006)

*Re: opinions please*



			
				Realist said:
			
		

> I know Pacer is shorting Santos. and has made a bit doing this.
> 
> My tip : wait... no hurry to get in at all...




yup..cheers..
but at what price do you think will make STO an attractive investment ?

simply an opinion


----------



## pacer (1 November 2006)

Just thought I'd let you all know I bailed  2 days later, for a small profit (2 cases of bourbon lol), after reading further that the dammage will mostly be covered by insurance, but still puts a bit of a hold up on that project and the resources used in the cleanup/repair job, (if they can repair it, personaly I'm putting money down on it continuing to flow for years...a write off), could have been used elsewhere, and Santos (and partners) will have to foot the bill till insurers pay out (If they are found to be at fault)...liability will be contested by the insurer I suppose.

Was a small play and I reverse my position or bail resonably regularly depending on several factors....this time it was a slow response in SP and to jump on KZL and ZFX....and we all know why I did that!!!!.....If anything this looks like a riser to me but is too unpredictable at the moment.....and I'm more interested in Zinc at the moment.

Sorry I took so long to look back on this for comment....good luck all.


----------



## pacer (23 November 2006)

STO has got more problems and is down 1,5% on news of an incident that killed some workers on a platform and has shut it down....I've gone short 1000 for a look again....they just don't seem to be able to put a foot right lately.

If it makes the ABC news I react...and that's twice within 2 months it's stuffed up....and oil is down from it's high too....


----------



## pacer (24 November 2006)

STO down 4% today....easy money....hehe.....

Now to decide whether to get out with the loot today or wait for more gains on the short side.


----------



## chops_a_must (24 November 2006)

Whoops. I was going to short this, and then slept in, haha.

How much have you made off it so far Pacer?


----------



## pacer (24 November 2006)

STO is rooted!.....it's just a shame I make money on the backs of others misfortunes.......RIP the guys that lost their lives here......


----------



## Caliente (25 November 2006)

hi holders of STO. Recieved a ML report this morning, thought I'd share this snippet.

Jeruk uncommercial at 50mmbbl

Santos has announced that the Jeruk oil discovery (STO 40.5%) is likely to be
less than 50mmbbl so with the commercial threshold at around 70mmbbl, we
believe that the field will now not progress to development. Previous Santos
guidance has been that the field contained “less than 170mmbbl”.

Given the lack of near-term catalysts, we are lowering our Santos
recommendation to Neutral. With Jeruk no longer a growth contributor we view
the Cooper oil program and appraisal of gas resources to expand Darwin LNG as
key. Whilst we are satisfied that the financial implications of the Banjar Panji
mudflow and subsequent pipeline incident are limited, we believe negative
sentiment may overhang the stock in the near term.
Lastly, with Santos being the best performing Australian E&P stock over the prior
six months (in a falling oil price environment) it may mark time as investors reweight
into the laggards.
We do not believe the stock is a Sell at this stage because of its near term
attractive multiples compared to its peers, Cooper Oil optimisation upside and
exploration activity offshore Northern Australia.


----------



## Dutchy3 (28 November 2006)

Potential juncture for this one. MD remained unfavourable all day. Over all the ASX of 70 or so points .... bad news everywhere ... and yet does not make a new low?

A short term CALL play could be on the cards ... will we get a signal?


----------



## MalteseBull (8 January 2007)

wtf is with sto atm?


----------



## Gundini (8 January 2007)

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> wtf is with sto atm?




I thought it has held up well in the last couple of days considering, but maybe it's something to do with the mud pouring out of their drill hole in Indonesia, not sure, but good company standing up in these markets.


----------



## Knobby22 (8 January 2007)

I've never liked Santos much.
Look at how they have performed long term next to Woodside. 
They have pretty limited reserves, spent a fortune trying to find more and failed. Better oilers out there. Look at AMU for instance.


----------



## Gundini (9 January 2007)

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> wtf is with sto atm?





Banjar Panji incident media reports
02 Jan 2007


Media enquiries                                            Investor enquiries
Christian Bennett                                         Andrew Seaton
+61 8 8218 5155 / +61 (0) 400 686 106        +61 8 8218 5157 / +61 (0) 410 431 004
christian.bennett@santos.com andrew.seaton@santos.com

Santos notes recent media reports in relation to statements attributed to the Indonesian President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, regarding costs claimed to be associated with the Banjar Panji incident.

It has been reported that “PT Energi Mega Persada’s unit Lapindo Brantas Inc [the “Operator”] must pay 3.8 trillion rupiah (US$421 million) to cover repairs and losses after gas exploration drilling triggered a mud flow disaster.”

Despite continued requests, Santos has not received any official communication in this regard from the Operator.  Santos is continuing to attempt to clarify the status of any discussions between the Government of Indonesia and the Operator.

Further announcements in relation to Santos’ share of potential costs relating to the Banjar Panji-1 incident will be made as definitive information becomes available and has been evaluated.

Santos Brantas Pty Ltd has an 18% non-operating interest in the Brantas PSC which contains the Banjar Panji-1 well, located near Surabaya on the Indonesian island of Java.  The PSC is operated by Lapindo Brantas Inc, with a 50% interest.  The remaining interest is held by PT Medco E&P Brantas, which has a 32% interest.


----------



## imaginator (10 January 2007)

whats the outlook for Sto?
It shot up to 10.08 today.
DO u think its going up more?


----------



## GeneralSantos (5 February 2007)

imaginator said:
			
		

> whats the outlook for Sto?
> It shot up to 10.08 today.
> DO u think its going up more?




STO will henceforth be known as "Mr Magoo" until such time as Flint extracts the digit


----------



## bigdog (15 May 2007)

*Santos Buyback Attractive?*

Very good FnArena article on the Santos Buyback titled "Santos Buyback Attractive?

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=8D58E7BF-17A4-1130-F5D7300EDD4BA0B3


----------



## Kruegs (29 June 2007)

Hi there,

I have been following Santos for a little while, noting it has surged in price considerably in the last couple of months.  Does anyone else share the opinion that it is due for a pullback in the near term?
I am assuming its price has increased on speculation of it benefiting from more flexibility with the removal of the 15% cap, and a solid oil price recently.  However, the PE has also ramped up considerably.  I am thinking with not much news of significantly increased earnings or new assets, the speculation value (and removal of some uncertainty in relation to the Indon Mud Volcano) may be fully factored in. 
Any thoughts?

Regards.
Mark


----------



## Kruegs (14 November 2007)

G'Day,

Santos seemed to drop into a downtrend since the news of the Cap release, and release of some below-expectation drilling results.

Being new to charting, I noticed some interesting patterns on this chart and am after some advice.  The Advance in price seems to be followed by a very consistent downtrend retracement, totalling around 50%.  As it has followed a 50% retracement, and I can not see any major change in the fundamentals, is it due to continue an advance again? There does seem to be some support the last few days at around $13.15.   Are there any other indicators I should be looking at to get a feeling of whether it is ready for a turnaround, or if the downtrend will continue?

Also note the 'Double Top' at the peak, before the downtrend commenced. Any comments on what this would normally tell us?

Cheers,
Kruegs


----------



## Captain G (11 February 2008)

Hi, can anyone tell me why Santos is holding up so well?? I have been watching it for weeks, and it seems to be doing OK compared to the rest of the market and most oil stocks. Any views ?? I've looked at the announcement and I can't seem to see anything of great significance.


----------



## nitpra (11 February 2008)

This is because of the company's growing LNG footprint, open register and strong leverage to rising East Coast gas prices.


----------



## vishalt (22 February 2008)

Profit fell but more reserves and good prospects?

SANTOS a good buy I reckon. 

What do you guys reckon?


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 February 2008)

East coast gas is seriously undervalued both by international standards and compared to other fuels (notably coal). Incredibly, gas is actually cheaper than coal in some situations right now - that's like saying gold is cheaper than lead. 

I won't last simply because if it did, gas demand will go through the roof thus ensuring that the situation isn't sustainable. So either global gas and coal prices crash or east coast gas prices go up. The latter is far more likely IMO. 

We're talking big jumps in price by the way, not small 10%, 20% etc rises.

So you could go long gas producers with access to the east coast market or go short anyone with gas as a major business cost who is unhedged, baseload power generation being the standout industry in that sense.

Be warned though that this will take years to play out not weeks or months. STO is pretty well placed to benefit from all of this IMO.


----------



## Dukey (27 June 2008)

Anyone know whats happening with STO today... 9 'becoming a substantial holder' notices released last evening!!!
don't usually follow them much so I have no idea yet, downloading now...
-dukey


----------



## Dukey (27 June 2008)

Well theres a hell of a lot of legalese stuff to get through - and seeing I'm not holding I wont bother - the crux seems to be Deutsche Bank (group) taking a 5.5% stake via a multitude of on market trades since Feb 25.
This is something like a >600$mill investment - so obviously they expect big things from santos....should create some interest!!!!!!!!!

- dukey


----------



## Dukey (27 June 2008)

It would seem that this buying has been the main driver of the SP rises since late Feb - from around $12-13 to what we see now - $> 21.
will be interesting to see how she travels when they stop buying!!


----------



## CAB SAV (28 June 2008)

Hi Dukey, Buy some, heaps more upside in this one. Positioning itself for big growth for decades with oil & csm.  if it doesn't get bought out. It's doing a hell of a lot better than a lot of oil penny dreadfulls which arn't rising with higher oil prices,eg CUE & co.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (15 July 2008)

A very interesting presentation by Santos today on their CSG,

It looks like their Gunnedah area may contain 40TCF of Gas which is double what their Qld acerage may contain (note though they did sell 40% recently to PETRONAS for $2.5Billion +)

Interestingly their Gunnedah acerage abuts ESG's PEL 238 and other tennements which makes ESG look strategically interesting (see page 13 of the presentation)

Overall highlights the value in the CSG sector


----------



## Dukey (15 July 2008)

Agree totally YT.
STO could be a big winner in NSW - will be watching for further sp corrections.
>> There is so much going on in CSG sector at the mo. - it's almost impossible to keep your eye on the ball - cause there are about 20 balls to watch!!

#BUL discounted due to ANZ/Chimaera issue.
#RPM/QGC/BOW t/over
#Early stagers like PES, BOW, BUL coming on
#LNG plants galore (4 planned for Gladstone alone!) - gotta be some partnerships to come there..
#NSW dvelopments - STO, ESG, AJL looking very good for the future.
#LNC/SXP and other UCG developments.


... very exiting for the future ... but hard to keep abreast of everything!
-d


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (17 July 2008)

Hey Dukey,

Yeah there is so much going on its just crazy,

I can't believe ICN, I was looking at them, back in Jan they announced a *1TCF Prospective resource* of CSG in there permit,

Key word was prospective, with 300m shares at 8c they were capped at $24m, since then after letting Santos take up a placement they moved as high as 40c = *$120m Mkt Cap*

Now they have settled back to around *25c = $75m Mkt Cap*

I wonder what STO's intentions are there given its in the Surat Basin


----------



## Dukey (17 July 2008)

That STO slide says it all doesn't it - HUGE acreages.

I did have abit of a look at ICN last yr but figured they might be on inferior acreage on the edge of Walloons - seems they might be OK afterall - though I think I remember the seams were pretty thin.... but then so are BUL's so far.

My head is spinning trying to keep up!  
so many companies... so few $$$
But I think AJL might be on the cards next for me though...

Still STO should be great long termer....   
- As for their interest in ICN's area - I'm not sure If STO moves as fast as the mid-sized CSGers.  Kind of like Telstra V Vodaphone.   STO is a very big Co and possibly not so desperate to make things happen fast... but if they need that gas for their LNG plant then that could push things along.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (18 July 2008)

Hey Dukey, 

Caught in the CSG whirl wind hey?  he he he, here's some more for ya


*Santos/Petronas* deal going ahead

Gladstone LNG partnership transaction with PETRONAS receives regulatory approvals Santos today confirmed the Gladstone LNG (GLNGTM) transaction announced on 29 May 2008, whereby Santos selected PETRONAS as its 40% partner in the development, operation and marketing of the GLNGTM project, has become unconditional and will therefore complete shortly.
All regulatory conditions have been satisfied, including confirmation from the Foreign Investment Review Board that it has no objection to the proposed investment by PETRONAS.

On completion, PETRONAS will pay Santos US$2.008 billion for its 40% interest in the project. A further payment of US$500 million will be made by PETRONAS upon reaching a Final Investment Decision for a second LNG train of 3mtpa capacity.


----------



## Dukey (18 July 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Dukey,
> 
> Caught in the CSG whirl wind hey?  he he he, here's some more for ya
> 
> ...




Yup - difinitely - happily i've been in this CSG whirlwind for a couple of years now since QGC was a babe in arms! -and it just keeps getting stronger!

Looks like STO should be set for a big sustained run like so many others..


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (20 July 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Dukey,
> 
> Caught in the CSG whirl wind hey?  he he he, here's some more for ya
> 
> ...




Santos has around 600m shares on issue, using an avg share price of say $20 (makes it easy too) the Mkt Cap is * $12 Billion * So really this deal represents about 1/6th of STO's Mkt Cap which makes it quite significant really,

Never bothered to think about it in that way, always just thought of Santos as an Oiler, perhaps their future expansion potential may lie with CSG?


----------



## michael_selway (20 July 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Santos has around 600m shares on issue, using an avg share price of say $20 (makes it easy too) the Mkt Cap is * $12 Billion * So really this deal represents about 1/6th of STO's Mkt Cap which makes it quite significant really,
> 
> Never bothered to think about it in that way, always just thought of Santos as an Oiler, perhaps their future expansion potential may lie with CSG?




Hm yeah STO isnt too bad

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 75.8 107.4 112.1 96.8 
DPS 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## oldblue (21 July 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hm yeah STO isnt too bad
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...




Hi michael

Just to clarify, are your earnings and dividends forecasts your own work? Can I ask what are your sources?

Cheers


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (21 July 2008)

CSG article mainly on Shell, but mentions Santos and the Petronas deal


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24041984-5005200,00.html

"FOREIGN investors appetite for investments in coal seam gas and Australian companies with exposure to the new energy product shows no signs of slowing.

Royal Dutch Shell's global head of power and gas, Linda Cook yesterday said the super major was still looking for new CSG openings in Australia to add to its recently added stake in Arrow Energy. 

"We've had that (CSG) on our radar for some years," Ms Cook said during a visit to Australia. 

"Our interest remains high in various types of new gas opportunities including tight gas as well as coal seam gas in a number of countries around the world."


----------



## CAB SAV (21 July 2008)

Lost count of the number of times someone has had sold 2 shares today, done a real good job of keeping the price down.


----------



## cartel31 (19 August 2008)

This stock IMO is now on the start of an uptrend. The shorters have kept it down. They will have to buy back some time, and so will the longers. It will gradual increase im expecting over the next two months IMO. 

I'm pretty sure they haven't had their annual report announced yet. It should be pretty good withe oil pricing so high lately. I just go buy the technical side. 

Should close higher tm.


----------



## cartel31 (20 August 2008)

Done well today STO is going to provide its report tommorow so it should follow OSH, it's up 9% at the moment after yesterday when it announed its full year report. IMO it should be up at least 3 % tommorow. I jumped in yesterday and will be out tommorow if all goes to plan. 

Every please do your own research and do not in anyway take what I say serious at all! I am a newbie!


----------



## UPKA (20 August 2008)

cartel31 said:


> Done well today STO is going to provide its report tommorow so it should follow OSH, it's up 9% at the moment after yesterday when it announed its full year report. IMO it should be up at least 3 % tommorow. I jumped in yesterday and will be out tommorow if all goes to plan.
> 
> Every please do your own research and do not in anyway take what I say serious at all! I am a newbie!




u might want to explain where u pulled the 3% from... hopefully its not something u dreamed up last night.


----------



## CAB SAV (21 August 2008)

cartel31 said:


> Done well today STO is going to provide its report tommorow so it should follow OSH, it's up 9% at the moment after yesterday when it announed its full year report. IMO it should be up at least 3 % tommorow. I jumped in yesterday and will be out tommorow if all goes to plan.
> 
> Every please do your own research and do not in anyway take what I say serious at all! I am a newbie!




Good call, I sold nearly half my holdings @ $18.85 and bought in again @ $18.08. Crayfish for tea tonight.
Positive reports get rewarded in this climate.


----------



## cartel31 (21 August 2008)

UPKA said:


> u might want to explain where u pulled the 3% from... hopefully its not something u dreamed up last night.




LOL What dream? They were goin to announce their accounts today, I said at least 3% I jumped out when it was at 9%.


----------



## dan-o (13 October 2008)

*STO - Santos*

I couldnt find an existnig thread on this which surprised me so apologies if I missed it. 

Santos has been punished last week, worse than Origin, and its ownership cap comes off soon. Does anyone know of any reasons why they were so heavily punished last week, apart from the obvious??


----------



## oldblue (13 October 2008)

Hi dan.

As you note on the QGC thread, almost everything got trashed last week.
Add in the continuing slide in the PoO and the liability hanging over STO from the Indonesian mudflow business and I'm not surprised that the SP continues to be under pressure.

Disc: Not holding STO at present.


----------



## dan-o (17 October 2008)

This keeps getting smashed. Is it because of the price of oil?
I put in an order at a price i thought was too low to be reached any time soon and now it has been filled and the shares continue to slide... Any reason why its going worse than the market at large??


----------



## oldblue (17 October 2008)

dan-o said:


> This keeps getting smashed. Is it because of the price of oil?
> I put in an order at a price i thought was too low to be reached any time soon and now it has been filled and the shares continue to slide... Any reason why its going worse than the market at large??




Certainly, it's about the PoO.
Everything on my O&G watchlist is down.

PPP -2.6%
NWE -5.9%
OSH -3.1%
STO -4.3%

I don't think it's anything personal against STO - they're all in a downtrend so I'm not buying!


----------



## So_Cynical (17 October 2008)

dan-o said:


> This keeps getting smashed. Is it because of the price of oil?
> I put in an order at a price i thought was too low to be reached any time soon and now it has been filled and the shares continue to slide... Any reason why its going worse than the market at large??




Its like anything negative or even the lack of positive news...seems to drive 
the SP down, and that's every stock...not just Santos.

Gold falling with Oil.


----------



## rob brewster (20 October 2008)

dan-o said:


> This keeps getting smashed. Is it because of the price of oil?
> I put in an order at a price i thought was too low to be reached any time soon and now it has been filled and the shares continue to slide... Any reason why its going worse than the market at large??




could have something to do with that bloody great mudflow they have going in java . there are estimates of up to $829 million for the clean up & Santos have provisioned for about $90 million so maybe that is whats spooking the market


----------



## kingbrown (29 October 2008)

*on the fence*

thinking on jumping into sto ? 

would like too hear from anyone who thinks she's good value at this price ?
Or is there more down side ?

this company has some great potential
hearing many QGC sellers are jumping into this


----------



## agro (20 November 2008)

just like to make everyone aware that Santo's cap gets taken off on the 29th .. leaving it open to takeovers from Petronas

good luck


----------



## Ferret (21 November 2008)

agro said:


> just like to make everyone aware that Santo's cap gets taken off on the 29th .. leaving it open to takeovers from Petronas
> 
> good luck




Any other time I would say this was worth a punt.  But at the moment .......

I'll probably be kicking myself in a few weeks time.


----------



## TheAbyss (8 December 2008)

agro said:


> just like to make everyone aware that Santo's cap gets taken off on the 29th .. leaving it open to takeovers from Petronas
> 
> good luck





Looks like the first bid is being prepared if the press can be believed (which  you can't but there is a lot of smoke around and volumes are up).

Good call Agro. If it wasnt for price of oil i would have bought a lot more with my QGC money. Anyway these times it pays to safeguard your best asset (cash) so happy that i have some STO and watching with interest.


----------



## jackson8 (8 December 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Looks like the first bid is being prepared if the press can be believed (which  you can't but there is a lot of smoke around and volumes are up).
> 
> Good call Agro. If it wasnt for price of oil i would have bought a lot more with my QGC money. Anyway these times it pays to safeguard your best asset (cash) so happy that i have some STO and watching with interest.




Any fundamentalists who may have a view on what a reasonable price would be if sto were to have a takeover bid placed.
With price of oil , recession and delay of projects this must be a hard one to answer.


----------



## TheAbyss (9 December 2008)

Any take over offer must come at a premium to induce share holders to sell. Anywhere from 40%-75% if you use the last few take over bids.

STO has a market cap of approx $7b so $10.8b-$12.5b is my estimate. That equates to around $18-$20 per share.

That is if a bid gets off the ground of course. The CSG assets may get sold off in a bid to keep the current ownership in place also but lets wait and see as we are less than a month into the ownership restrictions being lifted so thre will be a few cashed up oil companies taking a look under the hood yet.


----------



## jackson8 (9 December 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Any take over offer must come at a premium to induce share holders to sell. Anywhere from 40%-75% if you use the last few take over bids.
> 
> STO has a market cap of approx $7b so $10.8b-$12.5b is my estimate. That equates to around $18-$20 per share.
> 
> That is if a bid gets off the ground of course. The CSG assets may get sold off in a bid to keep the current ownership in place also but lets wait and see as we are less than a month into the ownership restrictions being lifted so thre will be a few cashed up oil companies taking a look under the hood yet.




the full article from china news


China National Petroleum Corp, the largest oil producer on the mainland, is considering pairing up with a foreign oil company to make a bid for Australian oil and gas major Santos, market sources said. 
"They've looked at a couple of parties but haven't put out any feelers. It would probably be a European firm that doesn't have a huge presence in Australia already," said one source. "There's really only a handful of buyers that could pull that deal off now."
Energy companies' share prices have taken a hammering as oil prices plummeted from historic highs hit earlier this year. 
Apart from CNPC (SEHK: 0135), potential bidders could include Chevron, BP, Eni and Total, industry observers said. CNPC declined to comment
"Eni doesn't have a presence, and that would make them more open to a deal, but they've already spent a lot on acquisitions so [CNPC] would have to offer them pretty good terms," said a London-based oil and gas analyst. 
"The corporate culture and the way they operate are so different, there would be major obstacles to overcome before they could do a deal. Even Eni and BP would have issues working together." 
While CNPC would be seeking a partner to mitigate political opposition, the benefit to a partner, which could very likely make a bid on its own, was nil, the analyst added. "Would they hope to get deals in China? China doesn't have any oil." 
Santos, the third-largest oil and gas company in Australia, was freed on November 29 from a 15 per cent limit on individual stakes imposed on the company by South Australia that had been aimed at blocking takeover attempts and keeping energy supplies in the state. The firm had long complained that the cap kept its share price artificially low and prevented it from competing with regional players. 
Santos hired Deutsche Bank and Australia's Caliburn Partnership to run the company's defence of expected takeover attempts by multinational oil and gas firms, sources said. 
"The Australians aren't going to let go of that without a big fight, because it's one of their flagship companies," said Larry Grace, an energy analyst at Kim Eng Securities. 
Santos has a market capitalisation of US$4.52 billion. Its shares have fallen 13.95 per cent this year, compared with the 44.95 per cent slide in the S&P/ASX 200 Index. 
The company said on May 2 that it was in the early stages of "potential strategic initiatives". 
Volatile equity markets and tight credit have made executing transactions difficult, and many potential mergers and acquisitions have failed to be completed. 
Anglo-Swiss mining firm Xstrata backed out in October of a US$10 billion acquisition of Lonmin, the world's third-largest platinum miner. 
"A full takeover [of Santos] might not be on the cards because they can't get the value that they want, given where the market is now," said one Australian-based analyst. "That's why a joint venture may be the answer." 
Such a move would keep control of projects in the company's hands and management intact. 
The company negotiated a first joint venture in May with Malaysian state oil company Petronas, the third-largest producer of liquefied natural gas in the world, which will pay up to US$2.5 billion for a 40 per cent stake in Santos' Gladstone LNG plant and 450km gas pipeline.


----------



## Trader Paul (26 December 2008)

Hi folks,

STO ... looking for some negative sentiment over the next
couple of months, as several negative time cycles come into
play, especially around:

      2601-20022009 ... at least 4 negative time cycles
                        come into play, during this period.

Happy trading in 2009.

have a great day

   paul



=====


----------



## rustyheela (29 December 2008)

they also still have some ongoing issues with their indonesian panji mudbath, bloodbath but a couple of days ago a report  said that they are trying to negotiate some sort of settlement to exit this environmental disaster. Reports say the damage bill could top $1 - $2b. with scientists saying it is impossible to cap until mother nature decides to call a halt!! 
bit risky to take over with that issue unresolved, i would of thought!


----------



## TheAbyss (30 December 2008)

rustyheela said:


> they also still have some ongoing issues with their indonesian panji mudbath, bloodbath but a couple of days ago a report  said that they are trying to negotiate some sort of settlement to exit this environmental disaster. Reports say the damage bill could top $1 - $2b. with scientists saying it is impossible to cap until mother nature decides to call a halt!!
> bit risky to take over with that issue unresolved, i would of thought!




It cost them $22.5 Million US but Santos have walked away from that liability. Link to doc follows.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20081211/pdf/31f4nzb5n2ql90.pdf


----------



## oldblue (30 December 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> It cost them $22.5 Million US but Santos have walked away from that liability. Link to doc follows.
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20081211/pdf/31f4nzb5n2ql90.pdf




Leaving only possible third party claims against Santos Brantas which STO think would be successfully resisted.


----------



## Boggo (30 December 2008)

*Re: on the fence*



kingbrown said:


> thinking on jumping into sto ?
> 
> would like too hear from anyone who thinks she's good value at this price ?
> Or is there more down side ?




With the current middle east conflict all oil stocks should benefit.

Bombs go down and oil goes up.

I am long on STO.


----------



## white_crane (31 December 2008)

It looks like STO has resistance at $15.  So I'm going to wait for it to break $15 and do a retest before jumping on this.


----------



## kam75 (6 January 2009)

STO has formed a decent looking Ascending Triangle reversal pattern.  I think the resistance zone spans more to around the 15.25 level.  I'm still to be convinced about the volume on this one. Wanna see it pick up before breakout with a definite increase on breakout day, at least around 10m and a decisive close above the resistance.  There's gaps to fill at 17.13 and 18.55 so may have a bit in it.


----------



## pan (5 February 2009)

has been sold down in the last couple of days..

any chartists got a view on santos?

is the ascending triangle still present?


----------



## jackson8 (5 February 2009)

pan said:


> has been sold down in the last couple of days..
> 
> any chartists got a view on santos?
> 
> is the ascending triangle still present?




i think it is just general market conditions at the moment keeping it down 
they have just upgraded their reserves but oil prices are still supressed 
i think also rumours of takeover by china pet. have worn off , like you i would be interested in a chartists view


----------



## pan (5 February 2009)

positive movement in the oil will see positive moment in the sp i guess.

my opinion from the chart is that it is starting to just trade sideways.

would be good to hear another view


----------



## jackson8 (5 February 2009)

pan said:


> positive movement in the oil will see positive moment in the sp i guess.
> 
> my opinion from the chart is that it is starting to just trade sideways.
> 
> would be good to hear another view




you will notice that sto , wpl , osh  all have a similiar chart pattern over last three months 
waiting for a trigger for a movement either way i suppose


----------



## rustyheela (27 February 2009)

*STO*

can santos break the resistance shackles and get out of the 5 month triangle?

looks good, consistently higher lows. Go the STO!!


----------



## So_Cynical (27 February 2009)

*Re: STO*

your prob looking for this thread....

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2722


----------



## Go Nuke (28 February 2009)

Well, i decided to buy back into STO on Friday, though seeing the dow down 180 points the other night Im regretting that I did.

What lead me to buy back in..well...

Volume increasing slightly over the past couple of days.

More than double the amount of buyers vs sellers.

At least 2 good attempts lately to hold above $15 failed but on Friday to me it looked like a better attempt (though holding over $15.50 looks more bullish these days).

7 day has crossed and the 21 day is close to crossing the 100 day MA.

All this leads me to believe/hope that the sp will run to about $17.50 - $18.50 based on previous support resistance.

Lets wait and see.....Im probably wrong :>


----------



## jackson8 (6 March 2009)

hi all
anyone have any ideas why santos has risen so much today 
seems to be going against the general market
maybe takeover speculation starting to build again ?


----------



## pan (9 March 2009)

well santos closed above 15.60 today after touching 16.00 hopefully have a good day in US and hopefully see the break about 16.00 tomorrow??

cheers


----------



## vincent191 (9 March 2009)

Me too have no idea why it is going up but I am very happy. Maybe the forward price of oil & gas is forecasted to go up?  Anyone got any research?


----------



## Sean K (10 March 2009)

Go Nuke said:


> Well, i decided to buy back into STO on Friday, though seeing the dow down 180 points the other night Im regretting that I did.
> 
> Lets wait and see.....Im probably wrong :>



Right on this one GN, nice work! That ascending triangle you id looks to have been broken. Should move higher from here in all probability.


----------



## pan (25 March 2009)

interesting article regarding santos

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKHKG6040520090324?sp=true


----------



## dan-o (11 May 2009)

What do people think of their equity raising? $12.50 per share seems like a good deal to me (assuming your' holding)


----------



## nikemi (11 May 2009)

dan-o said:


> What do people think of their equity raising? $12.50 per share seems like a good deal to me (assuming your' holding)




What you have to remember is that rights issues actually adjust the pre issue price, so your entire holding if you bought at 17.09 which is last close and take up the rights issue will be valued at 15.78 per share and this is what the closing price will be adjusted to. of course if you bought before that you will have to work out for yourself what your average price per share will be. and also with rights issue one cannot expect the same dividend even if the pay out ratio remains the same. so there are a lot of things to consider not just the price.


----------



## Ruincity (11 May 2009)

First of all: Surprise equity raising is annoying to say the least.. 

At least it is available to retail investors as "sophisticated investor" capital raising not available to regular sharehoulders stinks.
As a shareholder I personally will be looking to take this offer on..
I have ducked in and out of STO many times and it looks like I may be forced to take a little bit of longer term view now.  
IMO fundamentals of both this company and it's sectors/sub sectors are good, I was particularly liking the look of it's chart as well but I suspect that won't be looking so pretty come wednesday... 

Just wondering how the offer will be put accross to retail holders now?


----------



## oldblue (11 May 2009)

As with most of the many recent equity raisings, shareholders are almost "forced" to subscribe to avoid quite heavy dilution of their holdings.
Will be interesting to see what price STO trades at once trading resumes, ex entitlement.
I could be tempted back in if the price is right!


----------



## Harro7 (12 May 2009)

I've only just begun to play the game and have been caught of guard by this announcement. I experienced a trading halt whilst holding FMG also as they sought external finance. 

Santos is undergoing a capital raising. From what many of  you say it won't be a pretty chart of ascending triangles when it returns... how do I protect my investment as a small time player, or is there no hope for someone in my position?


----------



## sanford002 (12 May 2009)

or the Santos could take off like BHP & BSL...

take a look at these articles

http://www.shawstock.com.au/news/pos...l-raising.aspx

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...cument&src=tnb


----------



## vincent191 (12 May 2009)

Given rising oil prices and a strenghtening equity market and a hefty 27% discount you will be mad not to take up the rights issue.

Santos does not pay a very good dividend but this sort of discounted equity issues more than makes up for it.

Going forward I hope they can get another equity partner in the Gladstone project, currently they hold a 60% interest. To me it is far too much. The methane to LPG process is very new and never been tried before on a large scale. It is full of risk but if it is successful the rewards are very big. I would love to see Santos spread the risk a bit more, it would be nice if they can off load another 10% of the Gladstone project.


----------



## Dangerous (12 May 2009)

vincent191 said:


> Given rising oil prices and a strenghtening equity market and a hefty 27% discount you will be mad not to take up the rights issue.
> 
> Santos does not pay a very good dividend but this sort of discounted equity issues more than makes up for it.
> 
> Going forward I hope they can get another equity partner in the Gladstone project, currently they hold a 60% interest. To me it is far too much. The methane to LPG process is very new and never been tried before on a large scale. It is full of risk but if it is successful the rewards are very big. I would love to see Santos spread the risk a bit more, it would be nice if they can off load another 10% of the Gladstone project.




I sold STO a few weeks ago as demand for oil has tanked and refiners are over their heads in stock.  I see oil retracing significantly in the short to medium term until the huge cutbacks in production kick in and bring it back to current levels or higher.

After seeing the rights issue i'm glad i took my profits on STO.  I would be furious to see a $12.50 rights issue so far below current trading levels.

As for Gladstone, i don't think it will be so easy to get another partner as Petronas are already in 40%.  The max STO would want to see another partner grab is 20%, leaving it 40-40-20.  I view JV's as spreading capital requirements more than spreading risk.  They are an evil necessity of the industry and to get another partner will only make the project more difficult.


----------



## jono1887 (13 May 2009)

Well looks like that discounting hasnt gone well with their stock price... how stable is STO?? is it worth getting at 14.8?


----------



## oldblue (13 May 2009)

The SP of most companies which have had heavily discounted capital raisings recently has taken an initial knock, eg TSE, OST, BSL, NPX, FBU. Not surprising when you consider the volume of shares being issued and the need for some shareholders to sell in order to afford the "cheaper" new shares.
As the market settles after the issue, the SP's have recovered somewhat, not entirely, because of the dilutionary effect of the issues, but enough to warrant taking a cautiously optimistic view in most cases.
I don't see any reason why STO's SP shouldn't follow a similar pattern, in the absence of any other developments but DYOR.


----------



## oldblue (13 May 2009)

I don't see any reason why STO's SP shouldn't follow a similar pattern, in the absence of any other developments but DYOR. QUOTE.


I've just put my money to work to test the theory by buying a few on the re-opening following the announcement of a successfully oversubscribed institutional offering.


----------



## grace (13 May 2009)

oldblue said:


> I don't see any reason why STO's SP shouldn't follow a similar pattern, in the absence of any other developments but DYOR. QUOTE.
> 
> 
> I've just put my money to work to test the theory by buying a few on the re-opening following the announcement of a successfully oversubscribed institutional offering.




I see the offer does not close until Thursday 14/5 for retail.  So I can buy tomorrow and still get the 2for5 at $12.50?  Is that how you read it?  I've always wanted some Santos shares.


----------



## oldblue (14 May 2009)

grace said:


> I see the offer does not close until Thursday 14/5 for retail.  So I can buy tomorrow and still get the 2for5 at $12.50?  Is that how you read it?  I've always wanted some Santos shares.




I don't think so.

Although "Record date" is 14 May, the mechanics of buying shares means that purchases are not "recorded" until 3 days after purchase ( T+3).
Yesterday's trading would have been "ex entitlement", or at least that was my assumption when I bought a few.


----------



## venno (15 May 2009)

Well after selling up my portfolio over a month ago and sitting on the sidelines watching the market, I jumped into Santos at 13.74 a share (20k quantity) on Thursday hoping for a good day today.

Not dissapointed with todays jump, but I did expect it to go a little higher. I was hoping to sell today and take a quick profit but the price didn't hit my limit so I'm left holding until Monday open now.

Always get a little nervous sitting on large holdings over the weekend, I hope the SP continues upwards next week.


----------



## venno (19 May 2009)

This stock is starting to look up in todays trading, getting closer to my trigger

It will be interesting to see how the market responds to the dilutionary effect of the equity raising, or is it already priced in do you think

A continued downtrend in oil will not be a welcome event for the SP though


----------



## venno (20 May 2009)

Well sold my holding at open this morning for a tidy little profit

Will be keeping an eye on this stock though as it still presents an opportunity to trade short term for a respectable profit.


----------



## rustyheela (23 May 2009)

maybe retrace to 13.50 - 13.80 zone, volume is tapering off back to average / normal so  rights issue holders have or are stopping selling or bein shaken out,.Another down day on lower vol could be a goer for a long


----------



## Mad Mel (25 May 2009)

oldblue said:


> As the market settles after the issue, the SP's have recovered somewhat, not entirely, because of the dilutionary effect of the issues, but enough to warrant taking a cautiously optimistic view in most cases.
> 
> I don't see any reason why STO's SP shouldn't follow a similar pattern, in the absence of any other developments but DYOR.




This article states that Santos' Environmental Impact Statement may be approved in the next two weeks (it would be the first among the Gladstone competitors).  As well, it reiterates that Santos has said that it is "very, very close" to announcing a gas buyer.

If (huge if, obviously) these both hold true, the rebound after this capital raising could be very nice.  Timing of any announcements will be interesting, it would be nice to buy more shares first when the retail portion are released for trading on June 17.

http://business.theage.com.au/busin...-8-billion-qld-lng-project-20090524-bjgz.html


----------



## johannlo (25 May 2009)

re: impact of SPP and dilution

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't there going to be another hit on the day shares go on market due to profit taking? Isn't this the general behaviour to be expected?


----------



## Mad Mel (25 May 2009)

johannlo said:


> re: impact of SPP and dilution
> 
> Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't there going to be another hit on the day shares go on market due to profit taking? Isn't this the general behaviour to be expected?




Santos' shares are being released on two stages, 58% of them went on the market Friday, the rest June 17.  On Friday, it indeed did close $0.55 lower than the day before.


----------



## oldblue (25 May 2009)

Some good news for Santos here.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/green-light-looms-for-santos-project-20090524-bjhr.html


----------



## gooner (10 June 2009)

I applied for additional rights under the rights offer. Anyone know when STO will advise whether my application has been filled in full or partially?

I hold STO


----------



## rustyheela (10 June 2009)

According to the retail entitlement doc  issue of new shares on 16 th june and normal trading of new shares issued expected on the ASX wednesday 17th june


----------



## rustyheela (10 June 2009)

oh, and the despatch of confirmation notices and posting on computershare website also on the wednesday 17th june


----------



## gooner (10 June 2009)

rustyheela said:


> oh, and the despatch of confirmation notices and posting on computershare website also on the wednesday 17th june




If they post on Wednesday, I will probably not get to Thursday or Friday. Presumably STO will need to do an ASX announcement of policy and so that people  know if there is an underwriting overhang or not?


----------



## rustyheela (10 June 2009)

i would expect it to be oversubscribed many times over and scaled back substantially as based on the weeks price action its a 20% money for minimal risk as since the offering it hasnt really traded anywhere near offer price of $12.50 and the p.o.o. seems on a upward trajectory


----------



## vincent191 (10 June 2009)

They are very very close to making an announcement about signing sale contracts to buy the gas that will be produced when Gladstone comes on line.

I guess maybe June 17 is the "very very close date"???


----------



## gooner (10 June 2009)

rustyheela said:


> i would expect it to be oversubscribed many times over and scaled back substantially as based on the weeks price action its a 20% money for minimal risk as since the offering it hasnt really traded anywhere near offer price of $12.50 and the p.o.o. seems on a upward trajectory




Lots of investors sometimes never bother with rights issues, so I am hoping to get more than my allocation.

As you say it is free money, so you would expect it to be oversubscribed, but never underestimate stupidity.


----------



## gooner (16 June 2009)

Rights shares received in account today. Have sold some and suspect others have as STO tanking today


----------



## skyQuake (16 June 2009)

gooner said:


> Rights shares received in account today. Have sold some and suspect others have as STO tanking today




Hi gooner, I thought the shares should be available for trading tomorrow?
http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00953602

The schedule listed today as the Allotment date, but tomorrow as the trading day/


----------



## gooner (16 June 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Hi gooner, I thought the shares should be available for trading tomorrow?
> http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00953602
> 
> The schedule listed today as the Allotment date, but tomorrow as the trading day/




skyQuake

They were sitting in my online broking account so I traded them...........

No one told me not too - hope I did not break the law.


----------



## skyQuake (16 June 2009)

gooner said:


> skyQuake
> 
> They were sitting in my online broking account so I traded them...........
> 
> No one told me not too - hope I did not break the law.




Nah just that I noticed the same thing with MQG 
The dates they give out is different to what happens... still trying to work out whats going on.


----------



## gooner (16 June 2009)

rustyheela said:


> i would expect it to be oversubscribed many times over and scaled back substantially as based on the weeks price action its a 20% money for minimal risk as since the offering it hasnt really traded anywhere near offer price of $12.50 and the p.o.o. seems on a upward trajectory




Rustyheela

Turns out you were wrong and the offer was undersubscribed. However, for some reason, Santos still scaled back shareholders and gave the shares to underwriters instead.

Surely some mistake?????


----------



## skyQuake (16 June 2009)

gooner said:


> skyQuake
> 
> They were sitting in my online broking account so I traded them...........
> 
> No one told me not too - hope I did not break the law.




Ok, looks like you sold your old shares today. The new ones are in your account, but probably not tradable.

Related to that, do you mind me asking *when* were you notified how many shares you have been allocated/scaled back?

Cheers


----------



## gooner (16 June 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Ok, looks like you sold your old shares today. The new ones are in your account, but probably not tradable.
> 
> Related to that, do you mind me asking *when* were you notified how many shares you have been allocated/scaled back?
> 
> Cheers




skyquake,

I sold most of my original shareholding down in anticipation of receiving rights shares - I sold more today than I had in my account at COB yesterday so have definitely sold some rights shares.

I saw how many shares were in my account so knew how many I received. STO's announcement today also explained the allocation policy. Also if you know your HIN, you can check your allocation on STO's website ("check your shareholding")


----------



## qldfrog (17 June 2009)

anyone who asked up to 5000 shares will get them, anything above 5000 restricted to 3 times your initial allowance
I "just" ask 20k worth, I could have asked three times as much..a good learning experience !!! even if I expect STO might fall a bit in the coming days as people like me offload a bit


----------



## gooner (17 June 2009)

qldfrog said:


> anyone who asked up to 5000 shares will get them, anything above 5000 restricted to 3 times your initial allowance
> I "just" ask 20k worth, I could have asked three times as much..a good learning experience !!! even if I expect STO might fall a bit in the coming days as people like me offload a bit




qldfrog

I expected to be scaled back as I assumed it would be oversubscribed, however I did not expect to be scaled back so shares could be given to non-shareholders. Underwriters enter into a commercial agreement - they are effectively suppliers, so Santos has chosen to transfer shareholder value from shareholders to a supplier.


----------



## gfresh (17 June 2009)

qldfrog said:


> anyone who asked up to 5000 shares will get them, anything above 5000 restricted to 3 times your initial allowance
> I "just" ask 20k worth, I could have asked three times as much..a good learning experience !!! even if I expect STO might fall a bit in the coming days as people like me offload a bit




Indeed.. I asked for 5 times my allocation (still under 5000), which I thought was being cheeky, but in hindsight I maybe should have bought more if I had known they would allow such large overbuys.


----------



## gooner (17 June 2009)

gfresh said:


> Indeed.. I asked for 5 times my allocation (still under 5000), which I thought was being cheeky, but in hindsight I maybe should have bought more if I had known they would allow such large overbuys.




I feel sorry for anyone with just a hundred shares on which the rights would be 40 shares

 - apply for 5,000 additional shares and you get the whole 5,000
 - apply for 5,001 additional shares and you only get 3 times 40 which is 120 shares

What idiot came up with that allocation policy?


----------



## qldfrog (17 June 2009)

gooner, 
as I understand it, you can have 5000 PLUS 3 times your allocation so not so bad..but amazed indeed that they do restrict allocation while given shares to underwriters..
 I do own STO...


----------



## gooner (17 June 2009)

qldfrog said:


> gooner,
> as I understand it, you can have 5000 PLUS 3 times your allocation so not so bad..but amazed indeed that they do restrict allocation while given shares to underwriters..
> I do own STO...




qldfrog

The announcement is clear - if you applied for more than 5000, you only got 3 times your rights allocation. So if your rights allocation was 50 shares, you only got 150 extra shares.  But if you applied for 5,000 you got the full amount even if you had only 50 shares. Some big anomalies apparently looking at posting on another forum.

I applied for lots so was not hit by this anomaly but was hit by the 3 times limit.

I can not conceive how the board consider it is acting in the best interests of shareholders (their legal obligation) by giving cheap shares to underwriters instead of shareholders.


----------



## qldfrog (18 June 2009)

Gooner, just went and read again the announcement.Indeed, you might be right and it does not make much sense.
As I asked less than 5000, I did not focused on that case.
Hard to understand why they would act that way, you would expect a minimum of 5000 unit for every participant.....Let's hope for you it is a misunderstanding


----------



## db96 (19 June 2009)

qldfrog said:


> Gooner, just went and read again the announcement.Indeed, you might be right and it does not make much sense.
> As I asked less than 5000, I did not focused on that case.
> Hard to understand why they would act that way, you would expect a minimum of 5000 unit for every participant.....Let's hope for you it is a misunderstanding




This is not a mistake. I know of a person who were eligible to 100 shares. He appied for 7000 shares and was given 300 shares. He emailed them arguing that he should be alllocated atleast 5000 shares. They gave a reason that they used some formula  to work out the allocation and it is at there discretion. Nothing you can do about it.


----------



## gooner (20 June 2009)

db96 said:


> This is not a mistake. I know of a person who were eligible to 100 shares. He appied for 7000 shares and was given 300 shares. He emailed them arguing that he should be alllocated atleast 5000 shares. They gave a reason that they used some formula  to work out the allocation and it is at there discretion. Nothing you can do about it.




db96

ridiculous isn't it - those who supported the issue the most were shafted with less shares


----------



## dan-o (22 June 2009)

man that sucks, im a small shareholder, who wouldve loved to buy plenty under the offer but only took up what my entitlement letter said!


----------



## gooner (29 June 2009)

Seems to be languishing a bit - rights holders should have finished selling by now, so might start to see some move up soon. 

Oil price is back at $70 as I write this, so looking forward to a good day tomorrow.

Still a way to go to get the theoretical ex rights price of $15.87


----------



## vincent191 (9 July 2009)

Any idea why the SP of Santos has fallen by so much lately? It has fallen by much more than the drop in oil price.


----------



## oldblue (9 July 2009)

vincent191 said:


> Any idea why the SP of Santos has fallen by so much lately? It has fallen by much more than the drop in oil price.




There was a recent report about delays in the Longtom gas project which impacts to some degree on Santos but IMO the SP decline has been a bit overdone.

For a more optimistic view, have a look at this interview with CEO, David Knox.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...id-Knox-pd20090707-TQ3JT?OpenDocument&src=kgb


----------



## Zaij (10 July 2009)

Just bought into this today, seems to be solid company, low debt, good earnings, takeover potential.

Recent price battering unjustified too, will hope to see correction soon.


----------



## Iggy_Pop (12 July 2009)

Agree Zaij, I bought some a while ago at $14 and will buy a few more when I get my free money back from the ANZ share placement.


----------



## philly (12 July 2009)

Do people really think that STO is grooming itself as a takeover target when the ownership limits are removed? IMHO removing the limits will force it to become a big player or be gobbled up. Its recent purchase of a 20% interest in ESG shows that it is looking forwards.


----------



## Zaij (12 July 2009)

Win - Win Philly, Win - Win.

With NSW power in pretty much a shambles, green power on the up and up (gas is much cleaner than coal), such a massive field (8-9 billion BoE equivalent - I recall reading somewhere that iraq's second largest oil field could only extract 1.5mil at it's peak) and such high quality assets, hard to see a negative side to buying into STO.

Further, manufacturing indices in the US on the rise, indicating to me at least that manufacturing worldwide is going to begin getting out of it's current sluggish levels also means energy stocks should be some of the biggest winners in the coming months.


----------



## oldblue (13 July 2009)

philly said:


> Do people really think that STO is grooming itself as a takeover target when the ownership limits are removed? IMHO removing the limits will force it to become a big player or be gobbled up. Its recent purchase of a 20% interest in ESG shows that it is looking forwards.




The ownership limits have already been removed but what's holding up any possible "corporate action" is an embargo on the corporate advisers who were involved in a recent confidential look at STO's books.

STO has its own plans for moving forward, a lot of which involve the development of its coal seam gas assets, but that won't necessarily deter a determined big from a bigger player.

Disc: Holding STO.

PS. I've been trying to find the report on which I based my comment here but haven't been able to. Perhaps you should disregard my first paragraph unless/until someone else can verify or discount.


----------



## jackson8 (13 July 2009)

oldblue said:


> The ownership limits have already been removed but what's holding up any possible "corporate action" is an embargo on the corporate advisers who were involved in a recent confidential look at STO's books.
> 
> STO has its own plans for moving forward, a lot of which involve the development of its coal seam gas assets, but that won't necessarily deter a determined big from a bigger player.
> 
> ...




hi old blue

here is a link to a news report which may offer a little more information on the subject for you

http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,25750635-951,00.html


----------



## Zaij (30 July 2009)

Markets up, Santos down... thoughts? Am I missing some technical analysis here? Price first started dropping after the announcement saying Santos had signed a 100 million dollar gas contract with some mining company the other day, falling ever since.


----------



## Iggy_Pop (30 July 2009)

Zaij said:


> Markets up, Santos down... thoughts? Am I missing some technical analysis here? Price first started dropping after the announcement saying Santos had signed a 100 million dollar gas contract with some mining company the other day, falling ever since.




Oil down 6% might have some influence. Give STO time and it will improve. Good medium term investment.


----------



## Zaij (30 July 2009)

Iggy_Pop said:


> Oil down 6% might have some influence. Give STO time and it will improve. Good medium term investment.




STO is largely gas though which has gone up. Hell, Santos is looking to sell it's oil interests off darwin and shiz - doesn't make sense to me.


----------



## Real1ty (30 July 2009)

Santos has always had "take over" price included into it's SP.

Recently analysts are starting to think that they may not be as attractive a target as first thought and rumours are that it won't happen.

If the above is true, and it is only speculation and rumours, then that might explain some of the weakness in the SP in comparison to some of its peers.


----------



## Zaij (31 July 2009)

Been reading all over the place that British companies are very keen to develop coal seam gas in Australia. Is this just typical HC rampers talking stuff up, or is there any actual basis for their claims?

Also, they keep saying (almost every day in fact) that there's "big buys after close". Is there any way of verifying their claims, or are they just talking smack?

Regards,
Zaij.


----------



## oldblue (2 August 2009)

Well it is a fact that both British Gas and Shell have spent big money buying positions in Australian coal seam gas. BG wanted more but its bid for Origin was knocked back.
The Brits aren't the only ones interested of course. Petronas, ConocoPhillips, Sojitz are also there.


----------



## Datsun Disguise (3 August 2009)

Zaij said:


> Also, they keep saying (almost every day in fact) that there's "big buys after close". Is there any way of verifying their claims, or are they just talking smack?




If you have access to daily trade information ( i do on comsec) then you can see how the day is trading. Following close at 4 pm securities go into pre open and people but in their bids to buy / sell. So if you see a lot of trades going through post 4pm (all will have same time stamp) then you can confirm their claims.


----------



## gooner (3 August 2009)

Zaij said:


> Been reading all over the place that British companies are very keen to develop coal seam gas in Australia. Is this just typical HC rampers talking stuff up, or is there any actual basis for their claims?
> 
> Also, they keep saying (almost every day in fact) that there's "big buys after close". Is there any way of verifying their claims, or are they just talking smack?
> 
> ...




STO is a bit hard for HC rampers given its size.

FMG, GGG and various other speculatives are a different kettle of fish.


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 August 2009)

Datsun Disguise said:


> So if you see a lot of trades going through post 4pm (all will have same time stamp) then you can confirm their claims.






Zaij said:


> Also, they keep saying (almost every day in fact) that there's "big buys after close". Is there any way of verifying their claims, or are they just talking smack?




This is classic cognitive bias. For ever share bought there is a share sold.

For every "big buys after close" there is an exact opposite "big sell after close" or no trade would happen.

To weight one side over the other will only tell _*you *_where your bias lay. Nothing more nothin less.


----------



## oldblue (4 August 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> This is classic cognitive bias. For ever share bought there is a share sold.
> 
> For every "big buys after close" there is an exact opposite "big sell after close" or no trade would happen.
> 
> To weight one side over the other will only tell _*you *_where your bias lay. Nothing more nothin less.




Quite right.

Heavy buying/selling is only significant if it takes place in an uptrend or a downtrend. Recent STO trading has been pretty much sideways and volumes have been unremarkable.


----------



## Datsun Disguise (4 August 2009)

But TH, the bias can lie on either the buy or the sell side, true a trade = buy + sell. But you can also determine buying pressure by looking at if the trade came off the see list of the buy list. If the trades are consistently coming off the sell list then you've got buying pressure and vice versa. Pressure makes the price move in either direction and is relevant. So big buys (ie volume off the sell list) can be relevant - although what it tells you is certainly up to your interpretation!


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 August 2009)

Datsun Disguise said:


> But TH, the bias can lie on either the buy or the sell side, true a trade = buy + sell. But you can also determine buying pressure by looking at if the trade came off the see list of the buy list. If the trades are consistently coming off the sell list then you've got buying pressure and vice versa. Pressure makes the price move in either direction and is relevant. So big buys (ie volume off the sell list) can be relevant - although what it tells you is certainly up to your interpretation!




I assume you are talking about the market depth list here?

You still have it wrong though. Just because one large punter decides to pay up a price level or two and is met by an equal size large punter you are kidding yourself if you think thats meaningful in its self.

You might wanna waste a couple days of your time studying VSA. Could change you perspective?


----------



## rock86 (13 August 2009)

Don't know that much about gas/oil wells drilling and findings.

But Santos released an announcement today http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00977090 explaining that Santos discovered gas in Browse Basin offshore WA. I'm not that sure of the announcement outcomes, but investors sure liked it 

ps. what do they mean the well will be plugged, why would they do that


----------



## swm79 (13 August 2009)

I'd say it's most probably due to that fact that the MASSIVE Gorgon project is likely to get approval and "big players" might be shifting money to Chevron, Shell and Exxon with the dollar being high at the moment. Gorgon is by far the largest of the gas targets but suffers from the 4 D's - deep, distant, difficult and dirty... Santos is 4 or 5 years away from delivering. Also, there's talk around about AOE being taken over - possibly people jumping ships.



Disclaimer:Holds Santos and Arrow


----------



## TheAbyss (13 August 2009)

rock86 said:


> Don't know that much about gas/oil wells drilling and findings.
> 
> But Santos released an announcement today http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00977090 explaining that Santos discovered gas in Browse Basin offshore WA. I'm not that sure of the announcement outcomes, but investors sure liked it
> 
> ps. what do they mean the well will be plugged, why would they do that




Doubt that today's movement is related to the Browse Basin news as BPT are a stake holder and haven't budged at all though BPT have defied all rallies in the market and POO to remain stagnant to negative with their SP.

3% gain on average Volume is good but could just as easily go back 3% again tomorrow.

The takeover premium built into STO makes it difficult to realise much gain at the moment though i am still holding both STO and BPT as they are both quality stocks with great stories to tell.


----------



## Zaij (20 August 2009)

STO FINALLY broke $15 today on the back of some recent good news and todays pretty good report. Back down to $14.8 now, but barring any bad news seems to be poised to smash resistance.


----------



## michaelpeachey (17 December 2009)

Pushed $16 about six weeks ago, now playing around the high $13's. Any thoughts? Just trying to revive this thread, as being a local I'm keen on people's thoughts on this one!


----------



## So_Cynical (18 December 2009)

michaelpeachey said:


> Pushed $16 about six weeks ago, now playing around the high $13's. Any thoughts? Just trying to revive this thread, as being a local I'm keen on people's thoughts on this one!




As the chart clearly shows...buying STO at under $13.90 has been somewhat profitable in the past and the ideal entry level for anyone wanting to build a value position in this great company...IMO


----------



## johannlo (18 December 2009)

Momentum is clearly gone from this one to the other gas plays. But agreed at first glance the 13s appears to be a good LT entry point. 

Need to look at some numbers in detail first, I'm not so hot with making FA valuations so prob need to skim some reports etc. first to get a grip on the key figures (cashflow, eps, P/E etc.) and a sound handle on near and long term opportunities coming online. Have heard many times in the past that STO SP factors in takeover opportunity so maybe with all the majors making big moves that sentiment has dipped.


----------



## thierry (11 February 2010)

STO have increased their resource estimate the other day.. 

does anyone know any broker recommendations for this stock? 

Seems to be good value at the moment?


----------



## skyQuake (11 February 2010)

thierry said:


> STO have increased their resource estimate the other day..
> 
> does anyone know any broker recommendations for this stock?
> 
> Seems to be good value at the moment?




Last upgrade was by UBS on 22nd Jan (neut to buy), no comments from the major IBs after the reserves upgrade. AOE had a reserve upgrade on the 27th Jan but had no ratings upgrade either.


----------



## So_Cynical (10 September 2010)

Can someone that knows Santos better than i do please explane to me why the SP fell off a cliff yesterday? STO sold 15% of there GLNG project for 650 mill and the SP promptly fell of a cliff...how can the market react so badly to Santos pocketing 650 mill? :dunno: just seems wrong to me.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (10 September 2010)

One of the reasons is that when they sold their share to Total for 650 million, it was about 20% lower than the expected value, they also lost the clause in which Petronas pays Santos 500 million when the FID (Final investment decision) on the 2nd train is made. So in effect they sold out their position for 150 million, on top of this, they are using "portfolio gas" or gas that hasn't been found yet on their tenements, to fill up train number 2. On top of all of this it is anticipated that more equity or further sell downs in Santo's interests is required to pay for the capital costs of the project.

All in all, a bad few days to be holding STO.


----------



## skc (10 September 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Can someone that knows Santos better than i do please explane to me why the SP fell off a cliff yesterday? STO sold 15% of there GLNG project for 650 mill and the SP promptly fell of a cliff...how can the market react so badly to Santos pocketing 650 mill? :dunno: just seems wrong to me.




2 main things

1. Market was expecting / hoping $1B so they sold on the cheap
2. Big capital raising pending so people running away from the dilution

Here's a good article on the story.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...NG-gas-pd20100909-95663?OpenDocument&src=srch

Probably overdone in my opinion but any buyers need to be ready for the cap raising.


----------



## So_Cynical (10 September 2010)

Thanks for your answers PVF and SKC all makes more sense now...have to admit the whole CSG thing in central QLD based on Gas that isn't actually flowing has always had me a little skeptical....still buying STO at around the $12 level has proved to be profitable over the last few years, probably will prove to be again.

ill pass i think.


----------



## ricee007 (26 September 2010)

So, I was having a bit of a play the other day.

Some "people" are limited to buying the ASX20... others largely want to. IE:->ASX20 listing should, pretty much always, increase SP.

Brambles, BXB is in the ASX20.
BXB has a marketcap of $8.8Bn, according to ComSec.

Santos, STO is not in the ASX20.
STO has a marketcap of $10.6Bn, according to ComSec.

If STO goes back to $14 or so, this gap will widen significantly.

I can't be bothered checking the rest of the ASX20 market caps, but, I wouldn't be surprised if STO was greater than one or two more... and I WOULD be surprised if STO wasn't greater than one or two more at $14.

Of course, having a bigger market cap doesn't mean ASX20 inclusion...

But, 20% larger market cap, with $12.50+ or so providing a solid base (albeit, possibly rooted by an equity raising.... but, an equity raising would give it a bigger market cap anyway!)........ really makes me wonder if it is just a matter of time until STO is included in the ASX20... and the SP thanks everyone.

Anyone know how the process works? Does S&P just consider it subjectively every quarter and go, hmm, you know what? STO looks like it will consistently be bigger than BXB... lets swap them?

Is December suddenly looking like quite a possible date?

As to the cap raising...
stolen from HC:
$15Bn proposed cost for Gladstone.
45% ownership = $6.75Bn costs

Apparently STO have $6Bn in 'funded lines' (I thought it was around $4bn.. but, at any rate, its significant)
+ any cash on hand (ComSec says $2.2Bn for FY2009?)
+presume $400m netprofit


----------



## ricee007 (26 September 2010)

Oh, and, of course, I forgot to add probably selling a further part of their stake in the project.

I'm torn....

In a lot of ways, I believe this project will be NPV +... so want Santos to keep as much as possible... (sell 5%)

However, if they sold, say, 15%...this would prevent an equity raising (and probably debt raising?)... and may be short-term SP +, giving me a nice time to exit?


----------



## skc (26 September 2010)

ricee007 said:


> So, I was having a bit of a play the other day.
> 
> Some "people" are limited to buying the ASX20... others largely want to. IE:->ASX20 listing should, pretty much always, increase SP.
> 
> ...




Interesting thought. 

S&P usually rebalances when there is a vacancy. FGL is a potential takeover target so if that happens the door will be open for STO.

However, there are quite a few other viable candidates for ASX20 inclusion: SGP, CCL, AMC, LEI, ORI (each ~9-10B) and FMG (~$15B).

And it is quite difficult to work out how much money is in ASX20 only funds. Will there be enough demand from these funds to drive up the share price substantially? 

So all in all I probably would buy STO purely on the chance that it will be included in ASX20 one day.


----------



## SilverRanger (18 December 2010)

Santos has long been tipped to raise capital to fund their LNG projects, and so they did.
But it's quite disappointing that they didn't bothered with a retail component. I reckon they could have done it easily with a SPP for that $500 million and that will keep us shareholders happy


----------



## oldblue (18 December 2010)

Two reasons for the capital raising in this manner, IMO.

First, the Gladstone LNG plant is expected to be a USD16 *billion* project, rather hefty for a company of STO's size and strength, I would think.

Second, it's one thing to build the plant but it's another to find buyers for the off-take, at an economic price. A big part of the deal was to tie up agreements for this, which involved selling down a further big chunk of the project. The resultant 30% left to STO is a manageable size.

Why the placement and not a SPP? Probably has to do with assuring certainty to the overall deal and avoid having to wait on the reception from shareholders, many of whom had long been signalling their reluctance to commit more funds to STO.


----------



## oldblue (20 December 2010)

Successful completion of the $500m institutional placement.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101220/pdf/31vq8fxdxc2jjw.pdf

Shareprice responds favourably!


----------



## SilverRanger (20 December 2010)

oldblue said:


> Successful completion of the $500m institutional placement.
> 
> http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101220/pdf/31vq8fxdxc2jjw.pdf
> 
> Shareprice responds favourably!




I think the share price movement today has more to do with the KOGAS's off-take agreement and stake purchase, which would add much more certainty to the GLNG project.

Should that have been a SPP instead, we could have comfortably pocketed $20 million!!


----------



## oldblue (24 December 2010)

Yes, it would have been nice!

But let's not feel too hard done by. I see that directors have been buying on market - which is normally a good sign.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 June 2012)

Both Deutsche and JPMorgan are talking up a t/o of Santos.

This always makes me suspicious.

I have been reviewing charts tonight for my smsf and I would advise ASF STO holders to think about this "news".

The chart looks as if a move down is imminent.

The muppets at the above funds think otherwise 

“We suggest if the Santos share price languishes too far below fair value, players seeking to consolidate or establish a meaningful position on the (Australian) east coast may find a way to unlock that value,” JP Morgan analyst Benjamin Wilson said in a client note dated June 6.

http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaustralia/2012/06/07/jp-morgan-deutsche-talk-up-santos-raid/

Here is a chart, it's a pennant/flag, whatever you want to call it , but it looks to me like a down move.

Let us see if Benjamin is on the money.

Why would he let the WSJ know it was a takeover ???


----------



## notting (8 June 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Both Deutsche and JPMorgan are talking up a t/o of Santos.




Thanks for heads up on that GG always good to take into account! 
Although I'd prefer to call them pigs.


----------



## skc (8 June 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Both Deutsche and JPMorgan are talking up a t/o of Santos.
> 
> This always makes me suspicious.




Very good reasons indeed. Santos has been a takeover "candidate" since like 2007 when it's ownership cap was changed.



> As expected, the South Australian Government yesterday lifted the restriction on a single shareholder owning more than 15 per cent of the company's stock.






> There has been market speculation that Santos would be a prime target for a break-up after the cap is removed, with the Australian gas assets separated from its international operations.




http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...7/10/16/1192300768662.html?s_cid=rss_business


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 June 2012)

notting said:


> Thanks for heads up on that GG always good to take into account!
> Although I'd prefer to call them pigs.






skc said:


> Very good reasons indeed. Santos has been a takeover "candidate" since like 2007 when it's ownership cap was changed.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Well STO is heading south, lost 0.08% this morning, so the boy wonders at Deutsche and JPMorgan would have offloaded their shares to unsuspecting readers of the WSJ by now.

Anyone for a Porsche?

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 June 2012)

It is always interesting to investigate the suggestions by " advisers " and price action.

The muppets from Deutsche and JPMorgan announced at 10.30 am on 7/6/2012 on the WSJ  that STO was probably a near term takeover play.

It has been for some years as posted above, but let us not get too picky.

Below is a chart for the recent price action.

You can see that upwards of $72 million dollars of shares were traded on the day following this announcement.

STO tanked , closing below the previous day, and on the lows for the day.

I just thought I should post this, as I am reporting this to the ASX and to ASIC.

One wonders whether Deutsche or JPMorgan were net sellers or buyers on this golden day. I am too kind.

Watch this space.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 June 2012)

A young lady from the ASX just called me on my mobile.

It's Sunday all over the trading world.

Interesting.

I shall keep you, Deutsche and JPMorgan posted.

gg


----------



## skc (28 June 2012)

STO's LNG project suffers cost blowout - share falls 6%. 

That surely is not unexpected... not when you have 20% worth of the nation's GDP devloping LNG projects at the same time. So what's next? OSH? ORG? WPL?


----------



## trillionaire#1 (28 June 2012)

skc said:


> STO's LNG project suffers cost blowout - share falls 6%.
> 
> That surely is not unexpected... not when you have 20% worth of the nation's GDP devloping LNG projects at the same time. So what's next? OSH? ORG? WPL?




Australia's ever narrowing focus on iron ore ,coal and lng is keeping people up at night.
Australia=banana republic


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 June 2012)

skc said:


> SThat surely is not unexpected... not when you have 20% worth of the nation's GDP devloping LNG projects at the same time.



That says it all really. Australia's economy is unbalanced to the point that it's getting ridiculous.

It's like having a school of 300 students, only one of whom is any good at maths. But as long as that student keeps topping the state in math competitions, the school looks good. Then that student finishes their studies and leaves. Then everyone finds out that the school isn't much good after all....


----------



## blackjack (28 June 2012)

Smurf1976 said:


> That says it all really. Australia's economy is unbalanced to the point that it's getting ridiculous.
> 
> It's like having a school of 300 students, only one of whom is any good at maths. But as long as that student keeps topping the state in math competitions, the school looks good. Then that student finishes their studies and leaves. Then everyone finds out that the school isn't much good after all....




i bought into ESG and got shafted
then held STO and guess what?

I got shafted again.

mmmm note to self - dont buy shares - work for company find out whats going down then you will know the truth


----------



## skc (28 June 2012)

Smurf1976 said:


> That says it all really. Australia's economy is unbalanced to the point that it's getting ridiculous.




I worked for an engineering firm back in the days and 80% of the 200 strong office was working for a signle client. A few of the senior management raised their concerns but others can only see the dollars.

The year was 1999 and the client was OneTel.

They let a whole chunk of the people go and destroyed morale for some time after.

Anyway - back to STO. I actually went long today


----------



## Clean Energy (7 June 2013)

*Santos EIA for expansion of GLNG Project*

Does anyone know when the government decision on Santos' application to expand their wells from 2,000 to 8,100 around Roma in the Surat Basin for their GLNG project will be handed down?  Public comments closed in late February.


----------



## brettc4 (19 September 2014)

Not sure if many people have been watching tis stock but I have a question about activity after the market closed.

Looking at the Course of Sales @ 3:59:59 the price was 14.34
@4:10:31 - after the market was closed, the price dropped to 14.28 with probably close to 1m shares traded - about 20% of the days volume.

I can't find any news announcements, so can anyone explain why the drop in price after hours??

Thanks,
Brett


----------



## skc (19 September 2014)

brettc4 said:


> Not sure if many people have been watching tis stock but I have a question about activity after the market closed.
> 
> Looking at the Course of Sales @ 3:59:59 the price was 14.34
> @4:10:31 - after the market was closed, the price dropped to 14.28 with probably close to 1m shares traded - about 20% of the days volume.
> ...




FTSE and S&P quarterly rebalance today and some instos take the opportunity to move large positions around. Sometimes they hit an air pocket in terms of market depth and cause large movements on the closing auction compared to the price immediately prior.

As to why these instos are so stupid? I can only assume they don't care.


----------



## brettc4 (19 September 2014)

Thanks SKC.

How do you find out when S&P do their rebalance and what the new weightings are?


----------



## DeepState (19 September 2014)

brettc4 said:


> How do you find out when S&P do their rebalance and what the new weightings are?




The methodology for the S&P/ASX:





Weightings are proprietary.  You can get sector weights off the S&P site.  Individual weights are normally provided for a subscription fee.  You can scalp indirect approximations...

Market on Close gapping appears to be index related.  Index managers are paid to match the index.  The reconstitution in weights and prices are based on MOC, so this is the way that some manage the changes.  Price is no object.  MOC volume of approx. 3m is about 1 x avg daily volume.  It's the kind of volume they would pump through.  Check out the pop on LNG-AU.


----------



## skyQuake (19 September 2014)

DeepState said:


> Index managers are paid to match the index.  The reconstitution in weights and prices are based on MOC, so this is the way that some manage the changes.  Price is no object.  MOC volume of approx. 3m is about 1 x avg daily volume.  It's the kind of volume they would pump through.




^
I love how the index funds/etfs/authorized participants worry more about tracking error than market impact


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 September 2014)

skyQuake said:


> ^
> I love how the index funds/etfs/authorized participants worry more about tracking error than market impact



It's probably just another item on someone's "to do" list.

1. Update records of something trivial. 

2. Buy / sell a million shares in XYZ.

3. Order more toner for the printer.

Maybe not quite that extreme, but just someone doing their job and needs to get it done before they go home for the day. Market impact? Nobody said to worry about that....


----------



## brettc4 (20 September 2014)

Thank you DeepState for the explanation.

While aware the re-weighting happened, I wasn't aware of the timing and didn't realise it would result in such a large after market change.

I am guessing you could anticipate change to indexes, specifically additions and removals to say the S&P 200 based on market prices leading up to the S&P announcement, short anything that is likely to be dropped and buy a company likely to be added.

Are you aware of anyone using this strategy?

And if we follow that strategy through, does this lend itself to - what amounts to inside trading - from within S&P as they know changes and the impact those changes can have on the market especially considering the way numerous funds just buy and sell based on that information.


----------



## DeepState (20 September 2014)

brettc4 said:


> 1. Thank you DeepState for the explanation.
> 
> 2. While aware the re-weighting happened, I wasn't aware of the timing and didn't realise it would result in such a large after market change.
> 
> ...




1. No Probs

2. It can be large, but not always so.  Outcomes are highly varied for individual events.  Further, it is one thing to get set on a pop and hoping to get out at a profit after the MOC event passes.  These arbs are statistical, you take your chances.  Nonetheless, a profit opportunity exists due to a difference in objectives in market participants that occurs acutely for a snap.

3. It is based on free float cap and relative liquidity.  There is also judgment involved which makes prediction uncertain.

4. Various hedge funds, enhanced index funds, some active funds and SkyQuake .  It's been around for at least 20 years and probably much longer.

5. S&P exercises discretion despite a set of rules being available and widely disseminated (see MVF-AU for example.  The market was clearly surprised at the ASX 300 restructure announcement recently.  See notes from Pixel and I).  This adds a layer of complexity and risk around the announcement period trade if you want to get predictive.  Heading into the index change, the index fund managers may use the MOC as a bogey, but they make things difficult for the arbs by altering trading methodology.  This increases risk to the arbs, at the risk of some tracking error for the index funds.  Overall, this is how an index fund tries to avoid being shafted with impunity.  The volumes involved in the closing auction are generally tiny relative to their AUM.


----------



## DeepState (20 September 2014)

skyQuake said:


> ^
> I love how the index funds/etfs/authorized participants worry more about tracking error than market impact




I guess it depends on what your bogey is with market impact.  For an index, it is MOC.  They are getting no mkt impact if snapping it in.  It also happens to minimize their tracking risk.  For their mandates, it is exactly what they are paid to do and, in a narrow sense, their optimal move.  If there is a stupid thing going in, it is within the mandate construction rather than the practice.

I guess it is reasonably argued that our market impact is relative to cash (or something other than MOC) given our own objectives.  That causes us to behave differently to the indexers.  Our incentives are just different.

The trading strategies utilized are not generally snap with full volume on close, though.  At least for the majors, I understand that it is more than that.  We would not see the return distribution we observe in the event space if it were not so.

Anyhow, it is a happy thing when one set of investors can do their thing by minimizing MI and eliminating TE because they are acting as agent for clients who want it this way. At the same time, another set can regard such risks as irrelevant and take money out of the market.  Joint utility maximization.  Supposedly a win-win.  This is why the game has lasted decades.

The record of indexers vastly beats most other active participants.  So, personally, I'm not too hasty in calling what they do particularly stupid given the wider context and bearing in mind that the nature of the end game for indexers and others is ultimately to make money.


----------



## Potter (28 September 2014)

*Potter*

Just bought into Santos views please


----------



## burglar (28 September 2014)

*Re: Potter*



Potter said:


> Just bought into Santos views please




Hi Potter, 
Welcome to ASF!


----------



## piggybank (28 September 2014)

*Re: Potter*



Potter said:


> Just bought into Santos views please




Hi Potter,

Why do you needs views given that you have just bought into the stock Surely you bought it because:-


It is in an uptrend (which it isn't)...
You were told by someone (who's advice you trust) that now is the time to get in...
Or maybe you are just shorting them given it formed a double top recently and broke through the $14 mark that is a good resistance/support level for this stock.

I certainly wouldn't be buying into if I was going long.

All the best,

Cheers
PB


----------



## tradernor (18 October 2014)

Article from Seeking Alpha about Santos (STO), Beach (BPT), Senex (SXY) and Drillsearch (DLS), see the middle of the article:


http://seekingalpha.com/article/2566285-petroamerica-my-additional-take


----------



## tradernor (8 November 2014)

This is a very bullish call on oil from Continental's CEO, the article is from Businessweek:



http://www.businessinsider.com/r-us-oil-ceo-hamm-goes-out-on-a-limb-scraps-hedges-2014-11


----------



## So_Cynical (1 December 2014)

*Re: Potter*



Potter said:


> Just bought into Santos views please




Comment above posted on the 28th Sept so you paid about $13.50, shocking timing, personally i only get interested in Santos when its under 12 bucks...STO trading down another 9% today at $9.20...clearly an opportunity in the making.

The Monadelphous thread has pages of bargain hunter comments etc as MND fell like a stone, yet Santos gets nothing. :dunno: Monadelphous down 6% today as well.


----------



## qldfrog (1 December 2014)

*Re: Potter*



So_Cynical said:


> Comment above posted on the 28th Sept so you paid about $13.50, shocking timing, personally i only get interested in Santos when its under 12 bucks...STO trading down another 9% today at $9.20...clearly an opportunity in the making.
> 
> The Monadelphous thread has pages of bargain hunter comments etc as MND fell like a stone, yet Santos gets nothing. :dunno: Monadelphous down 6% today as well.




started accumulating 12.7 outch, more at 9+
if history is of any help STO has played yoyo between 10  and 14 for years
IMHO a good opportunity to get in if you can wait a bit before selling, I also expect some proper dividend when the trains start producing


----------



## Miner (1 December 2014)

tradernor said:


> This is a very bullish call on oil from Continental's CEO, the article is from Businessweek:
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.businessinsider.com/r-us-oil-ceo-hamm-goes-out-on-a-limb-scraps-hedges-2014-11






tradernor said:


> Article from Seeking Alpha about Santos (STO), Beach (BPT), Senex (SXY) and Drillsearch (DLS), see the middle of the article:
> 
> 
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/2566285-petroamerica-my-additional-take





Hi Tradernor

I am curious what Alpha and Continental CEO would be telling on STO?
If for a change I am not wrong, oil shares will plunge quiet a lot. Not gossip - just see behaviour of OPEC. They are doing like what miners are doing. Flooding market with production making small players unsustainable. Unfortunately some of the high priced CAPEX of STO now yielding the result with market price. So the scrip got flogged.
Do not hold - disclaimer


----------



## skc (1 December 2014)

Miner said:


> If for a change I am not wrong, oil shares will plunge quiet a lot. Not gossip - just see behaviour of OPEC. They are doing like what miners are doing. Flooding market with production making small players unsustainable. Unfortunately some of the high priced CAPEX of STO now yielding the result with market price. So the scrip got flogged.




Interesting isn't it how most miners and oilers make bullish mistakes... the commodity cycle has happened repeatedly over many years, yet it never fails to suck in a new generation of bullish executives who invest heavily, knowing full well that such investment will require the high point of the cycle to be sustained to generate any returns.

I also find it interesting that the oilers often get priced at "spot" when clearly they are a 20-30 year asset. Their market price should really behave more like a long dated option...


----------



## Wysiwyg (4 December 2014)

Santos broke 2007 low of $8.17 today when hitting $8.13. WTI has stabilised so there must be a forecast of further drops in crude or crude has bottomed out and it is a shake out for professionals to buy in (if that is a reality).


----------



## So_Cynical (9 December 2014)

STO traded under $7.50 today down 8.5% .. a real spanking .. im still waiting but will once again try and buy some cheap long dated calls.


----------



## moXJO (9 December 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> STO traded under $7.50 today down 8.5% .. a real spanking .. im still waiting but will once again try and buy some cheap long dated calls.




how far out you looking at going?


----------



## JTLP (11 December 2014)

Directors went hard after close today, with 4 x notices issued with them snapping up around 49,000 shares at $7.14-19.

Is this a vote of confidence for the market? Or them spotting an opportunity for the long term.
You can also snap up a little yield on these too...sits around 4.3%. Capital gain + yield potential in the long run perhaps?

I did read on Bloomberg that Andrew Hall (considered God of oil trading) sees oil as low as $50 a barrel before recovering in the 1st half of 2015.


----------



## shouldaindex (11 December 2014)

Reached the first support level much sooner than I thought today, and given the trajectory and how long left there is to play out, I've had to add further support levels and think the bottom one is not only in play after today, but has become the most likely.

STO $7.10, OIL $60
STO $5.80, OIL $55
STO $3.80, OIL $40


----------



## skc (11 December 2014)

JTLP said:


> Directors went hard after close today, with 4 x notices issued with them snapping up around 49,000 shares at $7.14-19.
> 
> Is this a vote of confidence for the market? Or them spotting an opportunity for the long term.
> You can also snap up a little yield on these too...sits around 4.3%. Capital gain + yield potential in the long run perhaps?
> ...




Think carefully about buying resource stok for the yield, especially one that has yield (seemingly) rising. It's almost guaranteed to disappoint.

Reason being: yield% is a function of the share price, and the lower the share price, the higher the historical yield number. Yet the fundamental reason for share price falling is that the price of the commodity is falling. A falling commodity price doesn't support the cash required to pay out dividend. 

STO is under balance sheet pressure. To shore up the financial positions, they can raise equity, cut opex/capex (announced today), borrow more debt (which they pulled last week) and cut dividend. So don't count on the dividend being there at all.

You'd only buy STO if you believe that oil will recover (or a takeover offer), but I would be careful about the yield consideration.


----------



## notting (11 December 2014)

It's still trading at a multiple of 16 which should be halved in the current environment.
If only WPL hadn't bought itself!
You'd think there would be some Asian interest in STO regardless.
The hard work is largely done and it would make a good purchase for someone who could swallow the debt in the transaction.

On the over all picture.  Had OPEC cut, the market was hoping for a cut of around 3.33%.  OPEC supplies around 30% of the market.
So we have had a massive drop off on the back of about a 1% cut not done.
How fricken mental!
If OPEC got together with the Russians and co they could all cut about .5% and cause the price to bounce back to $100.  This would massively offset the losses being incurred with the 40% drop in price.
Do you think they are going to cut at some point soon? 
Now let me think...........................


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 December 2014)

notting said:


> Do you think they are going to cut at some point soon?
> Now let me think...........................



Drilling rates are starting to come down in the US and Canada.

With the (very rapid) rate at which shale wells deplete, it's only a matter of time until that brings about a cut in production. They have to keep drilling to keep production up, drilling faster and faster as the number of producing wells increases, and at this price they're not going to do that for too much longer.

I'm confident that oil will come back up in the medium term. What happens in the short term is anyone's guess given the politics and potentially speculation involved.


----------



## skc (11 December 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> Drilling rates are starting to come down in the US and Canada.
> 
> With the (very rapid) rate at which shale wells deplete, it's only a matter of time until that brings about a cut in production. They have to keep drilling to keep production up, drilling faster and faster as the number of producing wells increases, and at this price they're not going to do that for too much longer.
> 
> I'm confident that oil will come back up in the medium term. What happens in the short term is anyone's guess given the politics and potentially speculation involved.




Personally I think driving US shale out of business is only a secondary objective or an indirect consequence of what OPEC (and its allies) is trying to schieve.

Yes US shale is greatly impacted, but the moment oil price goes back up, the drill rigs will go back in and it won't take long to ramp up production. It will put US shale on "sleep" mode for a while, but it won't ultimately stop them.

Other potential objectives, like bringing down the Russian government, however... can be achieved with a low oil price over the medium term.

Back to STO... 

I am of the opinion that oil price will go back up some time in the future. But it's completely anyone's guess on when that will take place. Individual companies may or may not survive the low price period in their current forms. It's one thing to predict that the flu epidemic will pass, it's quite another to predict whether a weak individual patient will stay alive or not.


----------



## skyQuake (12 December 2014)

skc said:


> It's one thing to predict that the flu epidemic will pass, it's quite another to predict whether a weak individual patient will stay alive or not.




That's a very nice analogy, I will steal it and pass it as my own personal wisdom. 

Also, i think the action in energy stocks (US) tell me a low has been found... Energy equities are reacting very sluggishly to oil weakness. Maybe one more savage stops run on the open then squeeze to green.

I wonder if the oilers 'bust' will play out like the iron ore 'bust' or the goldies 'bust'...

_________________________________

Edit: Lows in boys! Buy buy buy!*

*probably wrong but you should buy anyway so i can get a good exit


----------



## CanOz (12 December 2014)

skyQuake said:


> That's a very nice analogy, I will steal it and pass it as my own personal wisdom.
> 
> Also, i think the action in energy stocks (US) tell me a low has been found... Energy equities are reacting very sluggishly to oil weakness. Maybe one more savage stops run on the open then squeeze to green.
> 
> ...




Too funny SQ....I stop by sometimes just to read posts like this!


----------



## shouldaindex (12 December 2014)

Just had a re-look at the STO chart, and it seems to be more dictated by trend lines than previous support levels.  From 2009 to present, there's a downtrend line at about a 10% annual decline.  

I see the oil story continuing well into 2015.  So we may see some bounces off lows, but if the 10% downtrend continues then low $6 is a target in play for 2015 for the downtrend to continue.


----------



## JTLP (17 December 2014)

skc said:


> Think carefully about buying resource stok for the yield, especially one that has yield (seemingly) rising. It's almost guaranteed to disappoint.
> 
> Reason being: yield% is a function of the share price, and the lower the share price, the higher the historical yield number. Yet the fundamental reason for share price falling is that the price of the commodity is falling. A falling commodity price doesn't support the cash required to pay out dividend.
> 
> ...




Thanks SKC. 

I actually thought of that as soon as I wrote it, silly me!
I wonder if we will see a revised guidance on any major oiler numbers due to this drop in oil price? You'd think the lower lows would have to be spelled out eventually?


----------



## skc (17 December 2014)

JTLP said:


> I wonder if we will see a revised guidance on any major oiler numbers due to this drop in oil price? You'd think the lower lows would have to be spelled out eventually?




Oilers normally guide their production and capex spend... they don't give guidance to profits or EPS etc for obvious reasons. Some companies will present sensitivity anaylsis... like $Xm NPAT for each 10c drop in oil price, or $Ym NPAT for each 1c movement in the $AUD/USD cross rate.

It's up to the investor to work out. Many analysts still have higher oil price plugged into their valuation model so those price targets will come down. But the market price has already reflected the new reality.


----------



## sptrawler (17 December 2014)

JTLP said:


> Thanks SKC.
> 
> I actually thought of that as soon as I wrote it, silly me!
> I wonder if we will see a revised guidance on any major oiler numbers due to this drop in oil price? You'd think the lower lows would have to be spelled out eventually?




I can't see the oil price staying at this level for long, it just doesn't make sense, Arabs giving away oil.
Therefore I'm in for a flutter on the 15/12 at $7 even, here's hoping.


----------



## ROE (18 December 2014)

sptrawler said:


> I can't see the oil price staying at this level for long, it just doesn't make sense, Arabs giving away oil.
> Therefore I'm in for a flutter on the 15/12 at $7 even, here's hoping.




If Oil stay low for another year, STO will be in need of capital, capital injection via equity raising or debt market
but I reckon it be hard pressed to get decent rate with this oil price so equity injection is more like it.

the share price damage reflect the current oil price but if this drag on, the balance sheet will be hit next and it will be another leg down.

I looked at STO at $9 and I decided not to get involve as their balance sheet look vulnerable for a big dilution.

Safer way to play STO is buy $500 worth and wait for Capital raising , low risk with a decent chance of getting extra 15K on the cheap


----------



## sptrawler (18 December 2014)

ROE said:


> If Oil stay low for another year, STO will be in need of capital, capital injection via equity raising or debt market
> but I reckon it be hard pressed to get decent rate with this oil price so equity injection is more like it.
> 
> the share price damage reflect the current oil price but if this drag on, the balance sheet will be hit next and it will be another leg down.
> ...




Good point Roe, I'm just relying on the oil price recovering and will exit. But your idea sounds good, might leave $500 in.


----------



## sptrawler (18 December 2014)

sptrawler said:


> Good point Roe, I'm just relying on the oil price recovering and will exit. But your idea sounds good, might leave $500 in.




Don't know what's happening but $7.94 today, someone must be in the know.


----------



## oldblue (18 December 2014)

sptrawler said:


> Don't know what's happening but $7.94 today, someone must be in the know.




I doubt that there's anything to "know". Just a matter of STO - and many others - getting oversold in the big sell-off recently and now bouncing back somewhat. Let's see what happens offshore tonight!


----------



## skc (18 December 2014)

ROE said:


> Safer way to play STO is buy $500 worth and wait for Capital raising , low risk with a decent chance of getting extra 15K on the cheap




Talks started in the last week or so that STo has some pipelines to sell to inject liquidity and alleviate the need for a large capital raising. I think that partly explains the rise in the past few sessions.

I used to have a portfolio of "captial raising" stocks just as you described. But they don't really work very well these days. Many of them are renounceable rights issues and they limit the how many new shares you can apply in addition to your rights entitlement. 

E.g. I have a tiny PDN position and they raised 1-for-2 @ 26c, you can apply for additional shares but I got scaled back to 50% of my holding. So now I simply increased my $500 holding to $800 holding so a bit of waste of time.


----------



## JTLP (19 December 2014)

skc said:


> Talks started in the last week or so that STo has some pipelines to sell to inject liquidity and alleviate the need for a large capital raising. I think that partly explains the rise in the past few sessions.
> 
> I used to have a portfolio of "captial raising" stocks just as you described. But they don't really work very well these days. Many of them are renounceable rights issues and they limit the how many new shares you can apply in addition to your rights entitlement.
> 
> E.g. I have a tiny PDN position and they raised 1-for-2 @ 26c, you can apply for additional shares but I got scaled back to 50% of my holding. So now I simply increased my $500 holding to $800 holding so a bit of waste of time.




And with that - Santos announce a $1B facility with ANZ for 3 years. Good work sptrawler!

I thought the declining oil would play a negative role but I guess not?


----------



## sptrawler (22 December 2014)

JTLP said:


> And with that - Santos announce a $1B facility with ANZ for 3 years. Good work sptrawler!
> 
> I thought the declining oil would play a negative role but I guess not?





I wish I could jag those opportunities more often, 20% in a week. 
I think I will hang on for $9.99.
Watch me get my fingers burnt.


----------



## Miner (20 February 2015)

SANTOS result published.
Probably market already discounted the current price with about $7 B debt and lower price per barrel.
I do not predict market behaviour if the price goes up today but not going to put my own money on this speculative move.
When I read the 132 or so pages casually in addition to massive losses and lower fuel price what I attracted my eyes that company has not made any provision for legal cost towards capital expenditure which is pretty common for a large assets like this. So for long term investors it is meant a high level surprise when government asks for each well abandonment and cost.
In addition the massive undersales in WA.
The sweetening tone is 6% increase in underlying profit does not sweeten the whole scenario.
I will be watching for market to react but not going to sell family jewels to buy STO today.
No wonder this thread is not looked by ASF readers.


----------



## Miner (16 March 2015)

Is there any one following SANTOS and would like to share thoughts ?
Got the DLS published STO shares and it did not appreciate toe noise


----------



## skc (17 March 2015)

Miner said:


> Is there any one following SANTOS and would like to share thoughts ?




Well, it's not looking hot. The oil price has started to fall again and it looks like a new low could be printed. The STO chart is basically following the same pattern and is precariously hanging around the December low. It could easily crash through that tomorrow.





IMO they need to bit the bullet and raise capital (or sell some assets). 



Miner said:


> Got the DLS published STO shares and it did not appreciate toe noise




Not sure what you meant here.


----------



## luutzu (17 March 2015)

Miner said:


> Is there any one following SANTOS and would like to share thoughts ?
> Got the DLS published STO shares and it did not appreciate toe noise




Just bought a bunch last week at $7.10.

Why am I suicidal? 

All directors seem to have bought it around that to $7.30 (last December?). Good enough for me. 

OK, a few other quick look that might give me whiplashes later:

- at $7.11, equivalent of $6.9Billion market value; compare to around $9.4, say $10Billion book value. 
- So that's 30% off.

- At same price, market implied STO will grow at ~2.5% p.a. next 7 to 10 years based on Graham and Dodd's shorthand thingymajig).

I don't think STO grow at such low rate for next decade. Not given the couple of major projects it's getting online this year and the next; not given its projection of doubling output by 2020 [?] from current and almost completed production capacity.

And to oil price being halved. Read storage spaces are running out around the world. Should get there around July this year at current rate. So oil producers will have to cut back supplies or throw it out or something.

Don't like its capital structure, but it's been like that throughout its life except for after the GFC where it raises more equity. So it's not in financial distress. Operating cash would need to decline 93-95% for it to default.

It's about to complete its investments, major capex expenses and who knows, could be about to reap the rewards. But if capital is needed, won't be raising equity at such low market price (I hope) so either sell off assets or borrow. Doesn't seem like a good idea to sell assets at the moment, and debt ratio is at normal levels and with cheap credit might opt for that.

I haven't look at the finer details, or management, and don't really know much about oil either... haha... but it's only money.


----------



## Porper (17 March 2015)

This analysis was posted elsewhere last Tuesday.

Triangle target $6.10 but wave equality projection lower as shown on the chart. This assumes a 5-wave move is unfolding lower which definitely appears to be the case.


----------



## So_Cynical (7 August 2015)

Santos hit a near 12 year low today, looking at the all data chart going back to 1988 its easy to see the oil price bubble of the last 9 - 10 years and the current low, the last time i bought STO was after a big explosion and plant shut down in early 2004, paid $5 something, 12 years later and we are almost back to that price.
~


----------



## PinguPingu (20 August 2015)

Will be interesting to see if the recent denials of capital raising plans will stay that way with tomorrows results.


----------



## tanti (20 August 2015)

Hey guys,

What dose everyone think about this sub $6 price atm? Will it hold or drop further? Opec is making a supply decision in December I believe.

Marti


----------



## notting (21 August 2015)

tanti said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> What dose everyone think about this sub $6 price atm? Will it hold or drop further? Opec is making a supply decision in December I believe.
> 
> Marti




Well there is hope



> Santos has managed to climb 0.8 per cent despite a close to 90 per cent drop in core profits, a lower dividend, and the announcement of the resignation of its CEO.




But it really doesn't read that well, does it!


----------



## sptrawler (23 August 2015)

What are the chances of a take over, at these prices, some must be running their ruler over them. 

The gas reserves plus the infrastructure assets, are a long term play, as oil prices must recover IMO, OPEC will be hurting as much as anyone else. 

It is obvious that O/S companies are eyeing off Australian assets, as has been seen with the Toll and Asciano take overs.


----------



## pilots (8 September 2015)

sptrawler said:


> What are the chances of a take over, at these prices, some must be running their ruler over them.
> 
> The gas reserves plus the infrastructure assets, are a long term play, as oil prices must recover IMO, OPEC will be hurting as much as anyone else.
> 
> It is obvious that O/S companies are eyeing off Australian assets, as has been seen with the Toll and Asciano take overs.




Once you have run your ruler over them you will NOT want to do a take over, STO is over.


----------



## oldblue (8 September 2015)

pilots said:


> Once you have run your ruler over them you will NOT want to do a take over, STO is over.




Perhaps.

Nevertheless, today's AFR reckons that STO is setting up datarooms for potential suitors. Selected assets only?


----------



## qldfrog (8 September 2015)

oldblue said:


> Perhaps.
> 
> Nevertheless, today's AFR reckons that STO is setting up datarooms for potential suitors. Selected assets only?



would see this more as selling the  family silverware to pay the cash converter loan....a bit harsh but


----------



## shouldaindex (8 September 2015)

WPL chose OSH instead of STO on a 75% off sale. 

Must give a bit of reality to the situation.  

Unless conspiracy theorists think the WPL CEO is shorting STO (I'm sure a HC thread has started).


----------



## Calvin27 (22 October 2015)

Vultures have landed!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 October 2015)

sptrawler said:


> What are the chances of a take over, at these prices, some must be running their ruler over them.
> 
> The gas reserves plus the infrastructure assets, are a long term play, as oil prices must recover IMO, OPEC will be hurting as much as anyone else.
> 
> It is obvious that O/S companies are eyeing off Australian assets, as has been seen with the Toll and Asciano take overs.




Well done.


----------



## luutzu (22 October 2015)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Well done.




Yes well done Sptrawler. 

Can I also gloat too? Though not as sweet since jumping in too early at $7.45 (before the bottom fell out).. .though got some at $6, then some at $4.45, then some at $3.97. Would have been a lot richer if could afford that holiday 


Now the "experts" all seem to think it's undervalued at $6.88, and this guy Bloomberg quoted now think anything below $10 will considered low by the Board. Not that I'm complaining.


----------



## notting (22 October 2015)

Tip - 
When you hear commentators and oil men making exasperating comments about a take over like the WPL offer for OSH and they included involuntary and off the cuff type comments like, 'they would be better to have a crack at STO and why don't they buy STO." It is a good time to load up on the one they are exasperating over - STO - when the sector falls again after the initial excitement  of a consolidation bid like the WPL 4 OSH. 

The WPL OSH bid, by the way, isn't nearly as opportunistic as people are pretending, given that WPL shares are relatively subdued even more than OSH's.  WPL would be smarter to make a slightly higher all cash bid, now, making the market think that's better when it certainly isn't by a long shot, unless oil never recovers!
At that point WPL would get hit a bit and that would be a great time to buy WPL!


----------



## qldfrog (22 October 2015)

I thought about adding Santos yesterday and had no time, in any case, my bet would have been small:
My view is that Santos as is is bankrupt at current oil price so:
either they get bought back underprice: good buy for the purchaser, a sucker for the long term holders who have paid the assets and will get zip in return;
or the Santos management sell some assets themselves: less loss for Australia but  in effect a loss for long term holders as well;
Overall bad deal except for traders..I have no grudge, I made some nice money trading origin as a side activity to the STO news


----------



## sptrawler (22 October 2015)

luutzu said:


> Yes well done Sptrawler.
> 
> Can I also gloat too? Though not as sweet since jumping in too early at $7.45 (before the bottom fell out).. .though got some at $6, then some at $4.45, then some at $3.97. Would have been a lot richer if could afford that holiday
> 
> ...




Don't worry, I'm in the same boat, dollar cost average $5.50.

I still think there will be a lot more price movement, the Gladstone gas plant has started exporting and Santos has plenty of assetts to sell if required.

My guess is, there will be a few take over offers, time will tell.


----------



## UMike (9 November 2015)

Capital raising.

Surprise Surprise.

*From the STO media release:
Strategic Review completed: $3.5 billion capital initiatives strengthen balance sheet
Key Points
● $3.5 billion reduction of net debt through:
o $520 million from sale of interest in Kipper gas field to Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd
o $500 million private placement at a 15% premium to last close to an affiliate of the China-based international private equity firm, Hony Capital
o $2.5 billion fully underwritten accelerated pro-rata renounceable Entitlement Offer with retail entitlements trading
● Significant liquidity position increasing to over $5 billion in cash and undrawn facilities
● New dividend framework
● Future operating strategy to be driven by priority for improved return on capital performance
.....

Placement to Hony, $500 million
Santos has entered into a binding Share Subscription Agreement with an affiliate of Hony Capital (“Hony”), a major global financial investor. Under the terms of the agreement, Hony will subscribe for 73,529,412 fully paid ordinary shares in Santos, at a price of $6.80 per share.
.....This reflects a premium of 15% to the company’s last closing price of $5.91 on 6 November 2015 and a 76.6% premium to the offer price of $3.85 per new share under the Entitlement Offer.


......to strengthen the Santos balance sheet through a $2.5 billion fully underwritten, 1 for 1.7 accelerated pro rata renounceable Entitlement Offer launched today.......
The Offer Price of $3.85 per share represents a 34.9% discount to Santos’ closing price of $5.91 on the ASX on Friday, 6 November 2015 and a 25.2% discount to the theoretical ex-entitlement price (TERP) of $5.15.*


----------



## oldblue (9 November 2015)

A pretty savage discount to the SP for the entitlement offer. Easy to be wise after the event but there were many commentators urging that action some months ago when the SP was higher and a lesser discount price would have been feasible.

I hold a few.


----------



## luutzu (9 November 2015)

oldblue said:


> A pretty savage discount to the SP for the entitlement offer. Easy to be wise after the event but there were many commentators urging that action some months ago when the SP was higher and a lesser discount price would have been feasible.
> 
> I hold a few.




How much will the rights go for you reckon? $1, $1.5? Maybe $2?

Will probably sell the rights... too large a holding for the portfolio, and running out of cash. But not a bad return so far though... Once oil picks up and with GLNG putting in $1B in cash next FY... might end up doing OK with this one.


----------



## luutzu (9 November 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Don't worry, I'm in the same boat, dollar cost average $5.50.
> 
> I still think there will be a lot more price movement, the Gladstone gas plant has started exporting and Santos has plenty of assetts to sell if required.
> 
> My guess is, there will be a few take over offers, time will tell.




On the large account my avg around $6.38... so dam it. But the divvy so far and other much smaller account at much lower purchase price might prove a decent return. Maybe could take the family to a beach side rental this Xmas. 

Maybe Scepter might come back, or another offer from some other player... Santos' own plan might not go as they planned. But either way I'm fine with it... yea, it's all about me and what I want


----------



## luutzu (9 November 2015)

notting said:


> Tip -
> When you hear commentators and oil men making exasperating comments about a take over like the WPL offer for OSH and they included involuntary and off the cuff type comments like, 'they would be better to have a crack at STO and why don't they buy STO." It is a good time to load up on the one they are exasperating over - STO - when the sector falls again after the initial excitement  of a consolidation bid like the WPL 4 OSH.
> 
> The WPL OSH bid, by the way, isn't nearly as opportunistic as people are pretending, given that WPL shares are relatively subdued even more than OSH's.  WPL would be smarter to make a slightly higher all cash bid, now, making the market think that's better when it certainly isn't by a long shot, unless oil never recovers!
> At that point WPL would get hit a bit and that would be a great time to buy WPL!




Good point there about WPL and OSH... I haven't looked at the industry or its players beside STO so can't comment. But yea, saw another opportunity in the sector and let see how it turns out - so far not a good sign with the few I bought.


----------



## skc (10 November 2015)

This from Credit Suisse



> Hony, I shrunk the share price
> 
> In the 1989 film Honey, I shrunk the kids, Rick Moranis' device inadvertently shrunk three unwitting children to the size of ants. An unfortunate confluence of poor capital deployment, overly zealous assumptions, and a fall in the oil price has seen Santos' share price (and valuations) shrink all too much. Today's $2.5bn equity raising, $520mn sale of
> Kipper and $500mn placement to Hony Capital is Santos' attempt to stop the ship shrinking (and sinking). We certainly welcome a more pragmatic approach to the balance sheet.


----------



## SilverRanger (10 November 2015)

The institution component has a shortfall of 38 million shares, or $148 million, vs $112 million of ORG. 

Let's see what the bookbuild is like tomorrow.

http://www.afr.com/street-talk/santos-brokers-seek-bids-for-150m-worth-of-shares-20151110-gkvcub


----------



## notting (10 November 2015)

skc said:


> This from Credit Suisse






> We certainly welcome a more pragmatic approach to the balance sheet.




Do we.  Is that what we do.  Really?  

I bought some before the take over offer which is probably a stooge to fatten up the price for the raising and I sold on the day the after the offer came in, so I'm fine but this?  Credit Suisse? Comments add up to this -
'We welcome a capital raising at the absolute miserable bottom to destroy any holder who has bought in over the last 10 years. Credit Suisse are a joke.  If oil and gas kick up in the next 2 years this will prove to be one of the worst moves ever.  These people have no balls.


----------



## luutzu (10 November 2015)

notting said:


> Do we.  Is that what we do.  Really?
> 
> I bought some before the take over offer which is probably a stooge to fatten up the price for the raising and I sold on the day the after the offer came in, so I'm fine but this?  Credit Suisse? Comments add up to this -
> 'We welcome a capital raising at the absolute miserable bottom to destroy any holder who has bought in over the last 10 years. Credit Suisse are a joke.  If oil and gas kick up in the next 2 years this will prove to be one of the worst moves ever.  These people have no balls.




Come to think of it, yea the whole asset sales, everything on the table was probably a ploy to fatten up the price for a raising - Sceptre was the goose that fall for it. Hindsight being what it is I guess.

But then those royals are not going to take it in the face like that, so let's hope their pride will make little old me a bit happier. Don't mind either way actually... when oil recover in next couple of years say, with GLNG and PNGLNG online and full steam ahead, might work out very well. But the rights should ease the pain until then.


----------



## drsmith (12 November 2015)

Relative to the retail shareholders at $3.85, it looks like the instos at $4.60 got flogged on the entitlement bookbuild.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151112/pdf/432xkzjr9dfk5c.pdf

That's a far cry from the 90's when I remember the Westfield entities raising capital in a way that favoured the instos relative to the retails.

They at that time though were raising capital for expansion and not salvation which makes it even more interesting.

Santos closed today XR at $4.30.


----------



## sptrawler (12 November 2015)

Well it is certainly a strange move, one hopes the paying down of debt, gets them on a stable footing. I have gone from being really happy, to really confused, with them.
Fortunately with the entitlements, my average goes down to about $5, hope they get back to there.


----------



## shouldaindex (12 November 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> 11th-December-2014
> 
> Reached the first support level much sooner than I thought today, and given the trajectory and how long left there is to play out, I've had to add further support levels and think the bottom one is not only in play after today, but has become the most likely.
> 
> ...




Happy to help.

So for Part 2:

Keeping it simple, Santos is FCF positive @ >$60 Oil.  Oil is not this price.  Santos will be losing money, Santos will need more money.  Play it out, reach a conclusion in reality.


----------



## sptrawler (13 November 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> Happy to help.
> 
> So for Part 2:
> 
> Keeping it simple, Santos is FCF positive @ >$60 Oil.  Oil is not this price.  Santos will be losing money, Santos will need more money.  Play it out, reach a conclusion in reality.




If you are correct, why the hell did the Arabs make a takeover offer, they would know the status with the ex CEO fronting their offer.
If they are losing money hand over fist, the Arabs just need to wait, it will be interesting.


----------



## shouldaindex (13 November 2015)

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...energy/six-santos-directors-buy-company-stock

Same reason another ex-CEO and board were buying stock at $7, the same month I forecast $3.80.

Same reason they denied a capital raise for an entire year.

People involved with a company have more biases than someone who looks clinically at the information.

Regardless, if a company is not profitable or cash flow positive, that's pretty much it for the foreseeable future.


----------



## luutzu (13 November 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> http://www.businessspectator.com.au...energy/six-santos-directors-buy-company-stock
> 
> Same reason another ex-CEO and board were buying stock at $7, the same month I forecast $3.80.
> 
> ...




This is why we can't have nice things.

Gas and Oil exploration and production is a capital intensive business, particularly in the initial exploration and development stage. In production it will then make money hand over fist. 

Problem is you can't get the cash, and you probably can't make a business case, for new ventures and acquisition when the market is down. Oil too low into the foreseeable future to be convincing; lenders and shareholders and investors don't want to make investment when the future isn't bright etc...

So you can only raise cash and make a case for spending in a booming environment... with major, company transformative projects like GLNG, it take half a decade to get online... a lot could, and has, happen over that period. 

Bad luck for Knox and shareholders who think of investing as a long term business... CEO got removed, gets the blame; shareholders who held on get burnt; traders get to make money.

That's why management now learn and instead of investing for the future or make bold moves... they buy back shares, pay high dividends; don't make investments in a market downturn when prices are cheap... They might even strip and sell assets to make the number looks good. Then get rewarded for it, until later when all these short term and job security measure comes back to haunt the company.

----

What Coates and Santos is doing is quite clever. A bit shifty if we're cynical about it, what with playing Sceptre. Yes the new equity raising will dilute and is going for cheap.. but if shareholders (taken as a whole) were to "lend" extra cash in tough times, the holdings is pretty much theirs and they themselves get to buy assets on the cheap instead of some other investors and vultures.

GLNG along, from memory, will bring in $1 Billion in additional revenue per year starting January 2016. This is at current low oil prices. 

A good manager and investor would be insane to sell the entire company for $7 or $8B... Just think two to three years ahead; not a few weeks or months.


Sceptre are not fools; Santos own executives didn't buy it to hold up the stock price either.


----------



## notting (7 December 2015)

Was shorting it Friday in anticipation of the OPEC meeting which no one was saying could be good.
 I couldn't understand why it had showed some very short term strength in the face of oil falling off another cliff, with the bid in the background after the capital raising.  
Wasn't that comfortable doing it given it did have a week looking bid on it prior, but hey, guess I was lucky today. Will be watching it closely but if all is quiet and oil does little this ain't going anywhere.


----------



## notting (8 December 2015)

notting said:


> Was shorting it Friday in anticipation of the OPEC meeting which no one was saying could be good.
> I couldn't understand why it had showed some very short term strength in the face of oil falling off another cliff, with the bid in the background after the capital raising.
> Wasn't that comfortable doing it given it did have a week looking bid on it prior, but hey, guess I was lucky today. Will be watching it closely but if all is quiet and oil does little this ain't going anywhere.




Cashed it at 3.46 What a couple of days!
This could be a final capitulation, lot of oily people not making money at these levels.
I was wanting to short OSH too but thought the WPL bid would hold it up whilst others fell, wrong, but timing that would have been for illegal trading only!

If oil does miraculously turn.  OMG. The Wayne Swans inflation genie :nuts: (worlds best treasurer, you have to be kidding me) will well and truly be out of the bottle.


----------



## peter2 (8 December 2015)

Nice short. 
Yesterday's huge price selloff in OSH might have pre-empted today's news that the merger was off.


----------



## luutzu (8 December 2015)

notting said:


> Cashed it at 3.46 What a couple of days!
> This could be a final capitulation, lot of oily people not making money at these levels.
> I was wanting to short OSH too but thought the WPL bid would hold it up whilst others fell, wrong, but timing that would have been for illegal trading only!
> 
> If oil does miraculously turn.  OMG. The Wayne Swans inflation genie :nuts: (worlds best treasurer, you have to be kidding me) will well and truly be out of the bottle.




Nice.

It may drop a lot more Friday given the crash today and more shares available by then.

May pick up some more if it does... eventually may buy these suckers for nothing, haha.

Maybe it's just me but there's definitely market manipulation going on. What with pressuring the price down to buy the rights for cheap. Pretty clever, and legal too, apparently.


----------



## JTLP (14 January 2016)

Casting all that you know aside, when does this (amongst other oilers) become very cheap, with cash, and a takeover opportunity?

Calls for oil to hit $20/bbl (sitting about $30 now), China slowdown, stockpiles building; however I can't shake the feeling if you were to get in now, ride it out for a year you'd be much better placed?

Or perhaps I'm bonkers and I'd do more of my dough


----------



## oldblue (15 January 2016)

JTLP said:


> Casting all that you know aside, when does this (amongst other oilers) become very cheap, with cash, and a takeover opportunity?
> 
> Calls for oil to hit $20/bbl (sitting about $30 now), China slowdown, stockpiles building; however I can't shake the feeling if you were to get in now, ride it out for a year you'd be much better placed?
> 
> Or perhaps I'm bonkers and I'd do more of my dough




I guess the risk is, if oil *does* hit $20, the STO shareprice will fall well below today's level and some opportunistic offer will take everybody out for peanuts. I don't care much for peanuts!


----------



## luutzu (18 January 2016)

oldblue said:


> I guess the risk is, if oil *does* hit $20, the STO shareprice will fall well below today's level and some opportunistic offer will take everybody out for peanuts. I don't care much for peanuts!




STO is a sitting duck right now.

Sceptre might come back, offer the same $6.88 a share and take all them new $2.5B worth of cash for the same offer. Or others might play it smarter and offer, say $7 and pop goes long term investors' value.

Use some of the cash not yet paid off to grease and oil the Board with golden parachutes and the little shareholders who have been buying at $7 or above are all stuffed.

But I think the Board has been pretty clever. I know, what?

I like how they are not selling STO to private equity for cheap, but chose to sell it to existing shareholders to raise the cash to get through this cluster... mm... That and from the little that I have look into, I think it's smart not to contract their oil/gas out at current low prices, like ORG did... but to buy it from AGL etc. That's long term thinking and not az covering.

---

An aside... if we think that 1.5M/b a day oversupply is a glut, what would a 1.5M under supply mean? Saw chart of that same scenario actually happening in 2010-2013 and it mean $140/b oil that's what.

OPEC and the big oil producers are playing games. Destroying rival producers, geo-political foes, pick up small players on the cheap, get rid of alternative sources and investment in it for a while, keep consumer addicted like drug dealers do... and karching, and also karboom.


----------



## skc (18 January 2016)

luutzu said:


> Sceptre might come back, offer the same *$6.88 a share *and take all them new $2.5B worth of cash for the same offer. Or others might play it smarter and offer, say $7 and pop goes long term investors' value.




That means $6.88 x 1.765B shares = $12.14B. Compared to the previous attempt @ $7.14B for the company.

I'd be surprised if they have increased STO's valuation by 35% all of a sudden.


----------



## luutzu (18 January 2016)

skc said:


> That means $6.88 x 1.765B shares = $12.14B. Compared to the previous attempt @ $7.14B for the company.
> 
> I'd be surprised if they have increased STO's valuation by 35% all of a sudden.




Why not? They're capitalists and wouldn't think of buying things for a steal. 

It's not out of nowhere... STO just added $2.5B to the piggy bank. But yes, oil has also gone down since, and that real $2.5B at the bank is taken out to cover the current volatility and paper losses.

But ey, that's why I'm averaging down. In case they make an offer and take my lunch away


----------



## UMike (22 January 2016)

luutzu said:


> Why not? They're capitalists and wouldn't think of buying things for a steal.
> 
> It's not out of nowhere... STO just added $2.5B to the piggy bank. But yes, oil has also gone down since, and that real $2.5B at the bank is taken out to cover the current volatility and paper losses.
> 
> But ey, that's why I'm averaging down. In case they make an offer and take my lunch away



 They also added 35% more shares @ ~$3.85.

So the $6.88 a share isn't comparing apples for apples anymore.


----------



## luutzu (22 January 2016)

UMike said:


> They also added 35% more shares @ ~$3.85.
> 
> So the $6.88 a share isn't comparing apples for apples anymore.




I know what you're saying, and it's true.

But way I see it is STO has book value, from memory, of around $10B before the CR. Just raised $2.5B so that's $12.5B as far as I'm concerned.

So going by SKC figure of $12.14B if at $6.88 with current 1.7B shares outstanding sounds about right to me.

Of course I'm dreaming but if I own the entire company I wouldn't sell it for less than that.

Oil price crashing so it's booked as "impaired" on the balance sheet... but not really impaired, and not to the extend the market price it at.

I mean it still averages, what $AUD66 per barrel last quarter? It'll average much less next half... but thing is, Santos don't just sell at the price that's quoted... it also buy other people's oil, for cheap, and keep its own underground. So overall might not be such a big loss.

----

Santos was just unlucky - making a couple major big investments then have the prices collapsing on them. I doubt many could have predicted this kind of washout. But with the new cash paying down debt and the second train coming online soon, much much less capex as the major milestones are completed. All we need is reasonable oil and it won't be so bad.

I can wait a couple more years til the oil get up again. But it'll probably be taken over by then.


----------



## So_Cynical (22 January 2016)

luutzu said:


> *Santos was just unlucky* - making a couple major big investments then have the prices collapsing on them. I doubt many could have predicted this kind of washout.




It was stupid not to at least hedge their exposure, many ways to do that including a large CR back before the POO collapse, unlucky and a little stupid to be fair.


----------



## luutzu (23 January 2016)

So_Cynical said:


> It was stupid not to at least hedge their exposure, many ways to do that including a large CR back before the POO collapse, unlucky and a little stupid to be fair.




Can't argue with that. But the CEO is on the way out for that mistake.

Though maybe they were too deep into it and see that there is no way oil could collapse as it has so why hedge. Shouldn't be too gung ho and lose the lot though.

I just did some maths again and when GLNG is fully operational, its annul 7.8 million tonnes capacity is equivalent to 69M barrel of oil. Santos currently produces 57Mbarrel - most likely would only be 54M if we take GLNG out of equation.  [I think my maths is right]

So in next 6 months its second train will go online and soon after running at full capacity and in FY17 will see its production doubling.

This might seem a bad thing what with the glut and things, but if I am right, and of course I am ... the IEA also agree with me, haha... that 2017 will see the glut all dried up. 

Might work out well.


----------



## Ketts14 (3 February 2016)

*STO- Santos Limited*

Contemplating buying Santos shares while they are at a low.

Hoping to get some thoughts on the way people may be thinking the company will be headed and thoughts on future oil prices.

Thanks


----------



## jbocker (3 February 2016)

*Re: STO- Santos Limited*



Ketts14 said:


> Contemplating buying Santos shares while they are at a low.
> 
> Hoping to get some thoughts on the way people may be thinking the company will be headed and thoughts on future oil prices.
> 
> Thanks




Hi Ketts14. No one can advise and my own thoughts on STO have proved quite wrong over the last 6 months, having bought a few.
What is interesting to me is the report due out this month and what the new CEO will do, firstly with the board and the rest of the company. I would guess there will be a few board members out the door over the next several months, along with a few retiring. I think I recall while in his former CEO position at Clough that company was taken over.
Trimming up costs will only make the company more profitable when the oil price inevitably rises, however in the meantime they are probably a good target for a cashbox company (would govt gives permission?), or at least some of their new gas assets would be of interest.


----------



## Ketts14 (3 February 2016)

Thanks Jbocker,
Ive read through the latest threads and its definetly given me more to think about that I hadn't previously considered.


----------



## sparhawk (3 February 2016)

hey guys. i'm quite new to the forum, and having bought into STO about 2 weeks ago, thought i'd add some food for thought here. i can't see how they'd fare too bad if you were to buy in soon for a longer haul, as no one could have predicted OPEC to ramp up production as much as they did. sooner or later, even OPEC won't have a choice than to downsize their production as they'll price even themselves out of business. something suspicious of their decision considering they said for years we were running out of that commodity, and it's amusing they did it around the time Iran was coming off sanctions, and the Syria issue heated up alot.

in truth though, i can't foresee how long the glut will remain though, and anyone that could get a bargain at lower prices would gain a good increase IMO. of course, all this hinges on no extra bad news, which seems to be everywhere right now.


----------



## oldblue (3 February 2016)

> it's amusing they did it around the time Iran was coming off sanctions, and the Syria issue heated up alot.




I don't think it's any secret that the Saudis in particular are looking to maintain their market share by squeezing the higher costs producers, especially the US shale producers.

Too much uncertainty for my taste!


----------



## shouldaindex (3 February 2016)

I'm not sure if anyone else believes this, but I think alot of investing concepts are a complete myth.

If you lived next door to an industrial property and they were involved in gas and oil, and they had $6b worth of debt and required commodity prices to double to break even, and they had a for sale sign on their fence and you saw their for sale price had gone from $15 down to $2 - You would not spend a single cent on them and consider them dodgy as hell. 

Yet when we're behind a computer seeing 3 Letters with a number next to it, we attach our real life financial futures to that company selecting the ability to predict oil prices as the sole criteria out of the near infinate criteria available in the world to invest money in.


----------



## luutzu (3 February 2016)

shouldaindex said:


> I'm not sure if anyone else believes this, but I think alot of investing concepts are a complete myth.
> 
> If you lived next door to an industrial property and they were involved in gas and oil, and they had $6b worth of debt and required commodity prices to double to break even, and they had a for sale sign on their fence and you saw their for sale price had gone from $15 down to $2 - You would not spend a single cent on them and consider them dodgy as hell.
> 
> Yet when we're behind a computer seeing 3 Letters with a number next to it, we attach our real life financial futures to that company selecting the ability to predict oil prices as the sole criteria out of the near infinate criteria available in the world to invest money in.




But thing with oil is it won't remain at this low prices for too much longer. The only reason/s its so low is because it's oversupplied by 1.5% of current demand.

And it's oversupplied because, for various reasons, OPEC keep pumping it as never before. Santos has oil/gas that would take least another 20 years to extract... don't think OPEC and others can keep oversupplying at current rate or afford to hurt themselves for that long.

Simple math is Santo's 30% stake in GLNG is around $8B invested. Its current market price is less than just that one project.

More complicated maths is over the next few decades, the price it could sell its gas and oil will be much more higher than it is now... and that higher rate, when it happens, will mean it is currently underpriced by the market.

Problem is some smart and well oiled group might take it over at slightly above its current price and we're all stuffed. But my thinking is mgt will at least fight for current book value and there may be some takeover battles between a few giants. Maybe that's just wishful thinking but yea... win some lose some I guess.


----------



## luutzu (3 February 2016)

shouldaindex said:


> It's been mentioned multiple times that management thinks breakeven cash flow is at about $50 Oil.
> 
> So for STO can make enough earnings to get a 20 PE for example, would require (rough estimate) $65 Oil.
> 
> ...




Yea, heard something like $US40, so about $50 AUD, for GLNG operation. 

Last quarter its oil sales averages some $60 AUD right? Contract will definitely be lower now given the recent/current crash. But it won't mean STO will bear all the brunt either - it could, for example, buy similarly cheap oil and pass it on to customers.

But thing is, can oil remain at these level for long? STO has enough to pump for 20 years at least... not all of them will be at this level unless oil remains so for another decade. If it couldn't be this low, when oil goes up the profit then will make up for today's losses.

GLNG, from memory, is designed for at least 20 years. We can't take this last and next couple years prices to project its profitability for its entire life.


Brighter side is it's planning to divest certain assets. the pipelines for GLNG could fetch its share to maybe $1B. That would be enough to weather next couple of years low oil prices.


----------



## skyQuake (3 February 2016)

luutzu said:


> Yea, heard something like $US40, so about $50 AUD, for GLNG operation.
> 
> Last quarter its oil sales averages some $60 AUD right? Contract will definitely be lower now given the recent/current crash. But it won't mean STO will bear all the brunt either - it could, for example, buy similarly cheap oil and pass it on to customers.
> 
> ...




Why can't oil return to say long term average of $20 





No double there will be violent squeeze along the way... Why not just buy oppies on oil instead?


----------



## luutzu (3 February 2016)

skyQuake said:


> Why can't oil return to say long term average of $20
> 
> View attachment 65766
> 
> ...




Adjusted for inflation, maybe we're already there.

I really haven't looked into buying options and all the other financial products beside shares. Still only focusing on equity. One day soon though. 


Oil can't be at $20 because only Saudi Arabia and maybe Iraq could make some money at that level. Most every body else will need at least $15 just to get it out off the ground - no margin for transport, storage, exploration and bringing home the bacon. That and if people can sell less for more money, they'd do it.

Why don't they? Geo-Politics and other grand strategies.

Why else? There are more people today than it was a decade or two or three ago. By at least 1B more people. More people need more energy; more cars; more oil etc. 

Oil is finite... it will get harder and harder to pump out.

I mean, look at Santos' $26B GLNG project. It will deliver around 69M barrel per year. The world consumes more than that in a single day.


----------



## shouldaindex (3 February 2016)

If you asked me if Oil will be above $60 sometime in the next 10 years, I'd confidently say yes.

So theoretically STO would be making enough earnings at $60 Oil to be fair value at current price.

The problem is all that does is get you to where every fair valued stock is already.


----------



## luutzu (3 February 2016)

shouldaindex said:


> If you asked me if Oil will be above $60 sometime in the next 10 years, I'd confidently say yes.
> 
> So theoretically STO would be making enough earnings at $60 Oil to be fair value at current price.
> 
> The problem is all that does is get you to where every fair valued stock is already.




It might be taken over next 12 months. Hopefully it won't sell at normal 25% premium on market price else I'd be in deep poo. 

I have no clue where oil price will be next couple years, don't really care since I don't really price STO based on projected oil price and its costs etc. All I work on is that when Iran get itself online, oil glut might be 2M barrel a day over demand.

Demand is some 96M barrel a day. So it'll take some 50 days of these glut to meet demand for one single day.

So flooding at this rate for another two years and maybe it'll take the world a month to dry it all up.

In those few years of overheating the pump, some well may dry up and some maintenance will need to be done... the world would at least average a week's worth of shutting capacity. No new investment and not much exploration meantime to bring much new sources online... 

Anyway, I got in a bit too early, as it turned out. Will learn for next time.


----------



## jbocker (4 February 2016)

Santos is moving into more of a LNG company and in my thinking this is significant. Gas and Oil prices have some correlation but it is not clear, the price of gas I understand had been rising against oil which was relatively stable (when it was >$100/bbl). The influence of a drop/rise in oil prices does impact gas however not much vice versa. Oil is global and gas (LNG) has selective markets. LNG is becoming a preferred source for an increasing market as it is cleaner burning than oil and coal. 
The cost to create a LNG plant is huge and is a very massive barrier to competition, even more so now with oil pricing as it is. Santos at least now has producing LNG capability, I would hate to see where there price would be if they were still in the middle of construction and production a couple years off. 
In my mind STO (and other LNG producers) are being belted more than it should because there is lack of independence between two quite different commodities, but unfortunately that the way it is.


----------



## sparhawk (4 February 2016)

that's actually one thing i still haven't figured out... why is it oil prices have affected energy companies? it'd be a bit like getting rid of white because black is out of fashion. as far as i know, oil isn't a major energy producing commodity and hasn't been for a while, so i'm lost to that link.

on track with STO and OPEC again, OPEC needs the oil prices to be at least 30 a barrel to stay afloat, at least that's the general report that's floated around. i'd say it's true as suddenly they want to talk about curbing off the production numbers. i'd give it about a year and a half, and oil should start to recover. not sure whether it'll be a conflict, or if OPEC finally figure out they stuffed up by opening the valves to full. would be nice to actually see cheaper petrol, they don't have an excuse for that one now lol.


----------



## oldblue (4 February 2016)

> that's actually one thing i still haven't figured out... why is it oil prices have affected energy companies? it'd be a bit like getting rid of white because black is out of fashion. as far as i know, oil isn't a major energy producing commodity and hasn't been for a while, so i'm lost to that link.




The problem is that a lot of LNG contracts, and other gas purchasing contracts, are priced with reference to the price of oil. Or so I'm told.


----------



## UMike (18 March 2016)

So the Crude Oil price is above $40 now.

STO is just above $4 but struggling to move higher.
I had a long term sell order/plan to sell at $4.48..... $4.23 if I didn't think it would make it.
I am now thinking that I won't pass $4.12.

Might be better off selling here $4.08 and possibly buying back in a $3.75 and selling again at $4.08. LOL


----------



## Wicker Chair (8 May 2016)

luutzu said:


> Yea, heard something like $US40, so about $50 AUD, for GLNG operation.
> 
> Last quarter its oil sales averages some $60 AUD right? Contract will definitely be lower now given the recent/current crash. But it won't mean STO will bear all the brunt either - it could, for example, buy similarly cheap oil and pass it on to customers.
> 
> ...





Santos gave some figures for Break even 2016, US$32 with the Kipper sale, Without it would have been $47.

This website have a pretty good summary of Santos
http://www.howlinggales.com/


----------



## UMike (8 September 2016)

Wicker Chair said:


> Santos gave some figures for Break even 2016, US$32 with the Kipper sale, Without it would have been $47.
> 
> This website have a pretty good summary of Santos
> http://www.howlinggales.com/



Good read.
Took a little nibble today since it hit it's 3 month low.


----------



## So_Cynical (15 September 2016)

I have been watching since the big energy shake out begun, kicked my self a little for not buying that first big dip down below 3.50 so wasn't going to miss this one, in today @ 3.43, sure STO has some issues but they have the assets, the largest onshore producer, 20+ years of gas and direct access to the east market and selling into LNG terminals, exports.

Coincidentally STO was the first stock i ever bought back in 2004, everything comes around, think i paid like $4 something back then after the Moomba explosion.


----------



## notting (16 September 2016)

They need to raise about 3 billion to survive unless oil gets above 70. (gas syncs with oil and some say is in even more peril)
Hardly something to be kicking yourself over when it's ability to raise capital was even worse than it is now.
A good day for a second guess

To help you with that, here comes a terrorist - 

https://www.wired.com/2016/09/chevrolet-bolt-range-epa-rating/


----------



## notting (19 September 2016)

Broker said today that the break even for oil with Santos was 43.50 at the end of June, now closer to 40 targeting  35 per barrel.
Lots of debt to get through before it's an FMG or WHC but trying apparantly.


----------



## UMike (19 September 2016)

notting said:


> Broker said today that the break even for oil with Santos was 43.50 at the end of June, now closer to 40 targeting  35 per barrel.
> Lots of debt to get through before it's an FMG or WHC but trying apparantly.



That's a bit more like it.

First major debt repayments aren't till 2019 so they have time.

Can't see electronic vehicles being much more than a novelty for quite a while but with battery storage technology advancing at an ever increasing rate solar/off-peak power usage may put a dent in Gas.


----------



## So_Cynical (19 September 2016)

UMike said:


> That's a bit more like it.
> 
> First major debt repayments aren't till 2019 so they have time.




They can sell stuff PNG LNG or something else, and anyway debt in the lowest interest rate environment in history shouldn't really be a problem.


----------



## UMike (20 September 2016)

So_Cynical said:


> They can sell stuff PNG LNG or something else, and anyway debt in the lowest interest rate environment in history shouldn't really be a problem.




As long as they have positive cash flow and look like they can pay it off.

I had a few more grabs at the falling knife. Hopefully I don't need to buy any more dips till the next cycle.


----------



## UMike (22 November 2016)

Just typing out loud but seriously thinking of taking at least half of my holdings out on this recent run.

Super has done really well on it also.

$4.58 was my target on both but......


----------



## tech/a (22 November 2016)

UMike said:


> Just typing out loud but seriously thinking of taking at least half of my holdings out on this recent run.
> 
> Super has done really well on it also.
> 
> $4.58 was my target on both but......




STO is making higher highs over the past month.
Don't let fear of loss impact on profit.
Mitigate risk.
Selling prematurely will negate both Risk and Potential profit.
If your buying on the way down this is what your waiting for!!


----------



## So_Cynical (23 November 2016)

UMike said:


> Just typing out loud but seriously thinking of taking at least half of my holdings out on this recent run.
> 
> Super has done really well on it also.
> 
> $4.58 was my target on both but......




I have a sell order at $4.25, almost got there last Wednesday and again today, waiting patiently.


----------



## Miner (23 November 2016)

tech/a said:


> STO is making higher highs over the past month.
> Don't let fear of loss impact on profit.
> Mitigate risk.
> Selling prematurely will negate both Risk and Potential profit.
> If your buying on the way down this is what your waiting for!!






So_Cynical said:


> I have a sell order at $4.25, almost got there last Wednesday and again today, waiting patiently.




Now you folks are asking to review my strategy.
I planned to hold STO as a long term on my super  even if this has given me more than 22% return so far.


----------



## So_Cynical (23 November 2016)

Miner said:


> Now you folks are asking to review my strategy.
> I planned to hold STO as a long term on my super  even if this has given me more than 22% return so far.




I plan (hope) to build a position for the long term thus not selling my whole position, taking profit, de-risking and will hope to get in cheap again somewhere down the road, i half expect another capital raising.


----------



## UMike (1 December 2016)

So_Cynical said:


> I have a sell order at $4.25, almost got there last Wednesday and again today, waiting patiently.



Indicative Price on open is $4.25. Order still in???
Dunno what I'm gonna do.
Good scenario, not bad.


----------



## So_Cynical (1 December 2016)

UMike said:


> Indicative Price on open is $4.25. Order still in???
> Dunno what I'm gonna do.
> Good scenario, not bad.




I got cold feet and bailed yesterday...$4.04 just a little pissed off.


----------



## UMike (1 December 2016)

I just sold the SMSF lot but hanging onto the personal shares.
Finger on the trigger.

While I think the company is sound, when to jump on or off is pure speculation.


----------



## luutzu (1 December 2016)

So_Cynical said:


> I got cold feet and bailed yesterday...$4.04 just a little pissed off.




About 10% pissed off I'd say 


Just to make you feel better, I jumped in at about $7, then the $6s, then took up all the rights at $3.85 [?]... so still losing.


----------



## notting (1 December 2016)

I bought it at the close yesterday! 
It was the most beaten down of the larger ones and most leveraged for a turn.


----------



## Porper (1 December 2016)

notting said:


> I bought it at the close yesterday!
> It was the most beaten down of the larger ones and most leveraged for a turn.




I thought your strategy was to buy into a spike (oil thread yesterday). STO almost closed on its lows yesterday. AWE had a much better close, as did many others. Just wondering what your reason for buying was. Buying because it's been battered doesn't seem a great strategy.


----------



## notting (1 December 2016)

Porper said:


> I thought your strategy was to buy into a spike (oil thread yesterday). STO almost closed on its lows yesterday. AWE had a much better close, as did many others. Just wondering what your reason for buying was. Buying because it's been battered doesn't seem a great strategy.




No my strategy was all about the oil stocks themselves the oil price itself is often misleading and doesn't spike or tank till after our market closes.
You will notice that they all kicked up toward the end of he trade and their matching prices were almost all positive to the last open market price. That has consistently indicated a ramping anouncement from the Russians or Saudis, since the tank at the start of the year, that delievers a good return for our oil stocks the next day.
Normally I would buy them all but on this occasion the spike was not aggressive enough given this was not going to be a suprise announcement. I think I picked the right one to get into assuming that the announcement was going to be positive. What they have done so far today indicates that it was a good buy. But I should have gone them all!


----------



## So_Cynical (15 December 2016)

So_Cynical said:


> I i half expect another capital raising.




Didn't have to wait long, a billion dollar placement is a hell of a placement, never seen one that big before, shareholders diluted by 15% but the payoff is that STO is 100% de-risked...SSP at $4.06 or there abouts.


----------



## JTLP (15 December 2016)

What's the question with all this money? 100% derisked but then what?


----------



## StewyD32 (15 April 2017)

Is there much interest in Santos lately.
I have been keeping an watch on them for a while and thinking of taking up some shares.
Anyone have any opinion or T/A on them?


----------



## Triathlete (15 April 2017)

StewyD32 said:


> Is there much interest in Santos lately.
> I have been keeping an watch on them for a while and thinking of taking up some shares.
> Anyone have any opinion or T/A on them?




There is nothing in regards to T/A on this stock.
It is  just trading in a sideways range, might take another look if it breaks above $5.07 and see what it is doing then....maybe a trend will get going above that price....time will tell though....


----------



## StewyD32 (15 April 2017)

Triathlete said:


> There is nothing in regards to T/A on this stock.
> It is  just trading in a sideways range, might take another look if it breaks above $5.07 and see what it is doing then....maybe a trend will get going above that price....time will tell though....




Thanks Triathlete for the comment.
Im a relatively new at this and have mostly speculative stocks in my portfolio for hopefully a quick enough turnover.
I do have one or two stocks which I'm my mind are long term holders for me, adding Santos to this list if I do buy in.
As they are going sideways at the moment would it not be better to take up as small holding now and more if if they do turn more bearish, instead of waiting to break above $5.07.
Am I on the right thinking here that it would be more advantageous to to that rather than wait and see if it becomes bullish to $5.07 (keeping in mind its a long term holding).


----------



## Triathlete (15 April 2017)

StewyD32 said:


> Thanks Triathlete for the comment.
> Im a relatively new at this and have mostly speculative stocks in my portfolio for hopefully a quick enough turnover.
> I do have one or two stocks which I'm my mind are long term holders for me, adding Santos to this list if I do buy in.
> As they are going sideways at the moment would it not be better to take up as small holding now and more if if they do turn more bearish, instead of waiting to break above $5.07.
> Am I on the right thinking here that it would be more advantageous to to that rather than wait and see if it becomes bullish to $5.07 (keeping in mind its a long term holding).





I see your point and this is what the majority of long term investors do building up a position in a stock that they believe will go up over time.

I would just add what if this stock goes sideways for the next 10 years this would mean that all you would be getting back on your investment is the Dividend whatever that may be and no capital growth.

As an investor getting both capital growth and dividends is what you need to target because if you are not getting the growth than someone else is...

Look at Telstra many people hold this in there portfolio for the dividend yet they have lost plenty due to continuing to hold the stock when it was showing signs of a decline and we can all see what has just happened to its share price which has collapsed after the last dividend payment......

Always remember there is a time to be in a stock on the long side and a time to be on the short side and a time to stay out altogether.....


----------



## StewyD32 (15 April 2017)

Triathlete said:


> I see your point and this is what the majority of long term investors do building up a position in a stock that they believe will go up over time.
> 
> I would just add what if this stock goes sideways for the next 10 years this would mean that all you would be getting back on your investment is the Dividend whatever that may be and no capital growth.
> 
> ...



Thats true it can bee in a long rut of going sideways for a long time. But I would rather be in a stock sideways for a long time (if I can spare the cash and have no other investments that need cash attention) than miss out on the uptake straight away and plug in come re buys along the way.
If you are able to leave money in a sideways stock I think in my honest opinion that would fit in your last point about there being a time to be in a stock on the long side even if it is sideways rather than holding, but that is just me and you and many other will probably know more than I and have certain and more refine criteria than me.

I will be keeping an watch on Santos with the view of buying in soonish.
Just out of interest is Santos in your portfolio?


----------



## Triathlete (15 April 2017)

StewyD32 said:


> Thats true it can bee in a long rut of going sideways for a long time. But I would rather be in a stock sideways for a long time (if I can spare the cash and have no other investments that need cash attention) than miss out on the uptake straight away and plug in come re buys along the way.
> If you are able to leave money in a sideways stock I think in my honest opinion that would fit in your last point about there being a time to be in a stock on the long side even if it is sideways rather than holding, but that is just me and you and many other will probably know more than I and have certain and more refine criteria than me.
> 
> I will be keeping an watch on Santos with the view of buying in soonish.
> Just out of interest is Santos in your portfolio?





It does not matter if you miss out on the first 10% of a move as long as you pick up the next 80%  but that is the trader in me talking.....

I would need to know the move has started before I put my money in, this way I pick up the most in the shortest amount of time rather than letting my money do nothing but go sideways.

The stock market to me is about getting Growth and Dividends are the icing on the cake so to speak....

Santos is not in my portfolio as there is no reason for it to be there....


----------



## StewyD32 (15 April 2017)

Triathlete said:


> It does not matter if you miss out on the first 10% of a move as long as you pick up the next 80%  but that is the trader in me talking.....
> 
> I would need to know the move has started before I put my money in, this way I pick up the most in the shortest amount of time rather than letting my money do nothing but go sideways.
> 
> ...



Ah I see now. (sorry I'm a bit slow lol). Your first sentence is makes more sense than my entire thinking.
I think my mind-frame is still in the speculative stocks, buying in low and early and hoping for the best and riding out the weather hoping the stock makes it worth while (Please don't take this literally I do research and T/A the best I can on them).

I'll hold for a break in the sideways momentum and see what happens to Santos.


----------



## notting (20 July 2017)

Crawling out of the debtors prison and improving margins.  Potentially doing an FMG if oil can stay above 42 or so. Though it's margins are not as great at this point.


----------



## skc (20 July 2017)

notting said:


> Crawling out of the debtors prison and improving margins.  Potentially doing an FMG if oil can stay above 42 or so. Though it's margins are not as great at this point.




Yes it's amazing how much fat can be squeezed out of the production cost with a bit of commodity price pressure. FMG moved down the cost curve dramatically and will now reap the benefits for years to come.

STO has greatly underperformed as a major oiler so perhaps this quarterly is just what the doctor ordered. The chart is showing some hope.


----------



## sptrawler (20 July 2017)

notting said:


> Crawling out of the debtors prison and improving margins.  Potentially doing an FMG if oil can stay above 42 or so. Though it's margins are not as great at this point.



When you consider they were offered nearly $7 a share in 2015, and since then have done capital raising worth about $4billion, with the resulting dilution of shareholder equity.
What are they today?  $3.27
They are a complete disaster.IMO
The Chinese will end up owning them, IMO, sad management.


----------



## notting (20 July 2017)

Only if you were silly enough to be owning them prior


----------



## sptrawler (20 July 2017)

notting said:


> Only if you were silly enough to be owning them prior



There was nothing silly about owning them, the $7 a share was a good offer, there was plenty of money to be made.
The rejection of the offer and subsequent fall to $2.50 was a disaster that was difficult to predict, then the capital raising's and now a price of $3.27.
Really doesn't inspire much confidence, in management.
That is of course, unless you think, they will make better decissions going forward.
I was told by a mate years ago Santos had $hit management, so I steered clear, then saw the opportunity, jumped in and got burnt.
Never again.


----------



## notting (21 July 2017)

I couldn't believe how well STO performed during the GFC relative to everything else.  It was the most obvious short ever for a money munching monster that it was at the time. 
But it didn't happen until everything else started recovering.  One of those being right for too long experiences. Sept 2014


----------



## sptrawler (24 July 2017)

Santos, needs a lesson in business 101, they could learn from WES.

I would love to know what price per share, they would have to get now, to replicate the one they rejected.
Just a scam. IMO
Imagine the shareholders that bought in at $10 -  $15 years ago, tears all round I'd guess.
There are a lot of shareholders, that rely on a dividend for their income, not all rely on flipping shares to make on income.
Some see that as two up.


----------



## notting (24 July 2017)

Surely the Saudis are planning some stunt to offload their oil float rip off.  They are still well and truly big enough to make the price go where ever they want it if they must.


----------



## Boggo (24 July 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Santos, needs a lesson in business 101, they could learn from WES.
> 
> I would love to know what price per share, they would have to get now, to replicate the one they rejected.
> Just a scam. IMO
> ...




I was in Narrabri for a few days over a year ago now. While talking to a few cockies about the drilling etc around The Pilliga they were telling me that at one meeting they (STO) already had a list of all the people who would be attending and were likely to be objecting.
From the list they were able to quote how many shares each participant held either directly or indirectly through super etc. Got a few cockies off guard apparently !


----------



## luutzu (16 November 2017)

Seems a bidding war is about to start on this one.

The reported offer price from Harbour Energy is some $AUD5.30...


----------



## sptrawler (16 November 2017)

luutzu said:


> Seems a bidding war is about to start on this one.
> 
> The reported offer price from Harbour Energy is some $AUD5.30...




I wouldn't bet on it, management knocked back an offer of nearly double that, they probably know they would all be sacked if a takeover happened.IMO


----------



## luutzu (16 November 2017)

sptrawler said:


> I wouldn't bet on it, management knocked back an offer of nearly double that, they probably know they would all be sacked if a takeover happened.IMO




Reading what they say of Mrs Cook, she'll definitely fire the lot of them even if they were capable.

The $6.80 offer rejection was a good call in my book. It's better to raise equity from shareholders instead of selling out at a market low.

With the new capital raised and debt now reduced, oil market seems to be brighter than it was two years ago... the company is much more valuable now than before.

I haven't done the dilution of new shares and can't remember from top of my head, but a $5.30 a share would value the company as a whole much higher than the then $6.80. Though for us shareholders it's a loss on a per share basis.

But I doubt any company can takeover at $5.30 a share though. There's the Chinese with their 15% take; there's Scepter from the Middle East that wouldn't just walked away after one knockback.

Who knows, I might come out of this breaking even 
Jumped the gun too early with this one.


----------



## luutzu (16 November 2017)

Who's betting the board will resume paying dividends and a special divvy soon?


----------



## JTLP (16 November 2017)

There was talk about the gas crisis in the east > FIRB unlikely to approve a T/O > no more bidding for STO. Still, a nice platform under the price


----------



## luutzu (17 November 2017)

JTLP said:


> There was talk about the gas crisis in the east > FIRB unlikely to approve a T/O > no more bidding for STO. Still, a nice platform under the price




The gas crisis was cooked up by the enterprising capitalists at Santos and the likes. They even talk about it in one of the presentations.

How else are you going to get the voters off the politicians back about "safety", "clean drinking water" and environmental protection? Reduce supplies and increase the price domestically.

There's not enough gas for Australian battlers and entrepreneurs (because we shipped most of it offshore). Now if only you greenies get a life and let us frack the crap out the Naribi [?], maybe we'll get cheaper gas and won't be held hostage by (other people, who controls the gas supplies). 

So if the price is right, they'll help getting the lawmakers into line. That and Gina can always be called upon to satisfy the Australianess of any foreign takeover 

I sometime feel that these Australian/National Interest tests is so that our Aussie billionaires can have a cut in any major deal. Good thing they pay Aussie taxes.. oh wait.


----------



## StewyD32 (21 November 2017)

Will Santos hit back below $5 or keep inching up?
Im looking to make an entry point but nothing seems to let me lol


----------



## luutzu (21 November 2017)

StewyD32 said:


> Will Santos hit back below $5 or keep inching up?
> Im looking to make an entry point but nothing seems to let me lol




Hard to say.

As you probably have read, rumours has it that Harbour is planning a new offer of $5.30 a share in coming days. This is probably why the market is currently pricing it at about the $5 mark.

If that rumour turns out to be false (in a bad way) then it'll drop.... BUT

Drop how far and for how long?

ENN/Hony owns some 15.1% and they've agreed to not block any takeover offer that is above their entry average. And they can counter-offer in the event the board accepts. 

Then there's Sceptre and all the rest who might want to join in and maybe carve up certain part more synergistic to their current operations etc. etc.

OPEC is due to meet end of Nov... rumour and rumblings says they plan to extend the current cut to end of 2018.

Venezuela is being thoroughly screwed by the US that it can't get enough funding (or much of anything) to operate, man or hire contractors to pump and expand its operations. So it's been pumping less than it's supposed to.

Maybe others will step in and gap the difference but Saudi just said they wouldn't do it.

I do own a fairly large chunk of STO so take what I say with all the self-interest in mind.


----------



## Triple B (21 November 2017)

I find it interesting the the stock dropped 3% on the day of the investor presentation. Then gapped down [hitting my stop] and dropped some more.
What was in the presentation that shareholders didn't like ?
Then a few days later a response to the press speculation [press buddy finds leak]confirming No takeover offer is in the works! The desired result was achieved. 4.39-5.08
Awsome way to break the $5 without looking like market manipulation.
And some accumulation of cheap stocks down there too I bet 
[ Sorry for the cynicism ,I use Wyckoff method]


----------



## StewyD32 (21 November 2017)

luutzu said:


> Hard to say.
> 
> As you probably have read, rumours has it that Harbour is planning a new offer of $5.30 a share in coming days. This is probably why the market is currently pricing it at about the $5 mark.
> 
> ...




Thank you for the replay and a well informed one at that. 
I will keep an eye on it and see what prevails. However funds might be going to KLA if nothing happens.


----------



## Ferret (22 December 2017)

A bit of a jump in the share price this week, but it's a months since the rumours started flying and nothing firm yet...


----------



## greggles (3 April 2018)

$13.5 billion bid for Santos from US-owned, private-equity backed Harbour Energy. The highly conditional bid is made up of a $6.13 per share cash payment and a 37 cent per share dividend.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-03/santos-receives-13.5-billion-dollar-takeover-bid/9612420


----------



## UMike (4 April 2018)

greggles said:


> $13.5 billion bid for Santos from US-owned, private-equity backed Harbour Energy. The highly conditional bid is made up of a $6.13 per share cash payment and a 37 cent per share dividend.
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-03/santos-receives-13.5-billion-dollar-takeover-bid/9612420
> 
> View attachment 86794



Doesn't look like the market believes this will go through


----------



## Calvin27 (4 April 2018)

Woo cashed out 

I don't think it will go through either but even fake takeover bids are nice


----------



## leyy (5 April 2018)

Anyone still holding or following STO with interest?

I was lucky to take a position in August last year as it broke its long term downtrend on the weekly charts. It has been moving up and up nicely and was pleasantly surprised with the TO.

I will continue to hold as STO is they are turning things around and the price of oil is steady at circa US$63


----------



## luutzu (5 April 2018)

leyy said:


> Anyone still holding or following STO with interest?
> 
> I was lucky to take a position in August last year as it broke its long term downtrend on the weekly charts. It has been moving up and up nicely and was pleasantly surprised with the TO.
> 
> I will continue to hold as STO is they are turning things around and the price of oil is steady at circa US$63




Still holding.

Jumped in too early at around $7. Lucky to averaged down to about $5.40s or so. So if offer goes ahead, will make profit but not as big as it could be if I took a holiday or something around that time.


There are concerns that the takeover might be rejected on National Security grounds. I doubt that though.

There are some 3 major LNG players in Australia? Santos being the 3rd largest? Hard to make a case based on that. The states... do they have much say on takeovers? 

Maybe this is wishful thinking but with oil looking like it'll either stay at this level or move higher rather than lower, might get counter offers from the Chinese or the Middle Eastern sheikhs. 

I'm more worried about a GFC number two ruining the party than Canberra on this one.


----------



## luutzu (3 May 2018)

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...worth-substantially-more-20180503-p4zd3n.html

"
The rising oil price means US private equity firm Harbour Energy's $13.5 billion takeover bid for Santos may have to be lifted to get more attention from the company.

At its annual general meeting on Thursday, Santos revealed it had divested a suite of non-core Asian assets and said it was focused on its operations rather than Harbour Energy’s "uncertain" offer."


Maybe a $7+ offer? 

Iran is most likely going to be sanctioned, again, this coming May 12th. That'll be one big tap being shut off.

The Saudis might get their planned prices up between $80 to $100. 

"Every $US10 increment in the oil price above our free cash flow breakeven will generate around $US250 million to $US300 million in free cash flow per year," chief executive Kevin Gallagher said.

Incredible how quickly fortune could turn.


----------



## luutzu (18 May 2018)

Who's betting Santos will reject the current offer?

Seems Harbour [Habor?] made the Chinese an offer they can't refused. But as various AFR articles are saying, STO had gotten a lot more valuable since the first public offer a few weeks ago.

There's the oil prices gaining some 17%, the approval to frack the crap out of NW NSW (for the state and its battlers gas security); some field in NT and LNG, more reserves discovered in its fields.... So current offer of $US4.98 could be $500M to $1B short.


----------



## leyy (18 May 2018)

luutzu said:


> Who's betting Santos will reject the current offer?
> 
> Seems Harbour [Habor?] made the Chinese an offer they can't refused. But as various AFR articles are saying, STO had gotten a lot more valuable since the first public offer a few weeks ago.
> 
> There's the oil prices gaining some 17%, the approval to frack the crap out of NW NSW (for the state and its battlers gas security); some field in NT and LNG, more reserves discovered in its fields.... So current offer of $US4.98 could be $500M to $1B short.



I also think the Santos board will reject the offer. Santos has transformed their business over the last two years and cut down costs, sold non core assets to become a low cost producer (free cash flow breakeven at $36 a barrel). Oil prices currently being just shy of USD$79 a barrel, Santos is making very good cash. Oil prices are at a 3 year high so there should be some good momentum.


----------



## luutzu (18 May 2018)

leyy said:


> I also think the Santos board will reject the offer. Santos has transformed their business over the last two years and cut down costs, sold non core assets to become a low cost producer (free cash flow breakeven at $36 a barrel). Oil prices currently being just shy of USD$79 a barrel, Santos is making very good cash. Oil prices are at a 3 year high so there should be some good momentum.




I think so too.

With Santos saying that for every $US5 increase per barrel they gain $US250M in free cash per year [?]. It's increased some $15 since the public offer.

Iran being sanctioned, Venezuela being sanctioned with their oil infrastructure crumbling and expects to reduce output from 1.5mbpd to some 1M. That would take around 2to3 million off the market. 

With new report showing the average 5 year global inventory is currently below demand; demand from Asia (and the world) rising... under-investment in the past few years; only 1 out of 3 offshore barrel extracted being replaced. The macro is definitely looking bright for oil in the medium to longer term. 

For Santos to accept the current offer would be quite irresponsible.


----------



## leyy (21 May 2018)

Revised Offer from Harbour Energy announced today.

Up to A$6.95 - A$7.00 (if they hedge oil-linked production of c.30%).

This is an increase of circa 7.7% from original A$6.50 offer to A$7.00


----------



## luutzu (21 May 2018)

leyy said:


> Revised Offer from Harbour Energy announced today.
> 
> Up to A$6.95 - A$7.00 (if they hedge oil-linked production of c.30%).
> 
> ...




Based on their US-dollar offer, it's now $5.21 from $4.98... that's only a 4.6% increase.

Oil had since increased from $65 to $80, or 23%.

Santos could argue that the future of oil is looking pretty good and there's more room for the offer price to go. 

In not making a one or two firm offer, Harbour is just opening up options for a higher price. Since they're not amateurs at these sort of thing, maybe they're really anxious to take Santos before the Chinese or other gulf states make a better offer.


----------



## luutzu (21 May 2018)

Where's Sceptre?


----------



## luutzu (22 May 2018)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...billion-bid-as-oil-prices-surge-idUSKCN1IN10S

*Australia's Santos rejects Harbour Energy's $10.8 billion bid as oil prices surge*
(Reuters) - Australia’s Santos (STO.AX) said on Tuesday it terminated discussions with Harbour Energy and rejected the U.S.-based company’s final takeover offer of $10.8 billion, saying it undervalues the oil and gas producer as oil prices surge.

Harbour made a final offer for Santos this week, hiking its bid for a fifth time in nine months after a steep rise in global crude oil prices.


“(The board) resolved to reject the final proposal on the basis that it does not represent a full value of the company and, when combined with the associated risks, is not in the best interests of Santos shareholders,” Santos said in a statement.


----------



## leyy (22 May 2018)

luutzu said:


> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...billion-bid-as-oil-prices-surge-idUSKCN1IN10S
> 
> *Australia's Santos rejects Harbour Energy's $10.8 billion bid as oil prices surge*
> (Reuters) - Australia’s Santos (STO.AX) said on Tuesday it terminated discussions with Harbour Energy and rejected the U.S.-based company’s final takeover offer of $10.8 billion, saying it undervalues the oil and gas producer as oil prices surge.
> ...





Good call by the board, The final price offered by Harbour Energy undervalued Santos.


----------



## luutzu (22 May 2018)

leyy said:


> Good call by the board, The final price offered by Harbour Energy undervalued Santos.




I agree.

Their final offer is too risky, too low. Asking Santos to hedge our oil in a rising environment just after the crash. What happen if FIRB don't approve but our production are already hedged in a rising oil market?

There's the unfair treatment with major shareholders; the price being offered only in US dollars but their "best" offer counts the rise in AUD instead. 

Board's doing good. The share price tomorrow won't be fun though.


----------



## leyy (1 June 2018)

The SP has recovered and held up well after concluding takeover talks, which is very promising. It finished at around the same price as the initial takeover announcement on 03 April 2018.

Next price target is circa $7.50 where there will be some resistance if it breaks that it is blue skies ahead, if oil price maintains it currents price, my expectations is in the near term within 6 months, unless there is an update in between.


----------



## luutzu (3 June 2018)

Good AFR article on the takeover.

https://www.afr.com/business/energy...ergy-this-is-the-inside-story-20180601-h10ub7


----------



## leyy (7 August 2018)

strong finish and has closed at a 3 year high of $6.56 good outcome post takeover talks.

Next target $7.50


----------



## leyy (22 August 2018)

Santos announces acquisition of Quadrant Energy.

A quick review of the acquisition is very positive. This should bode very well for the share price, well done to Kevin Gallagher and the excom team.

Santos also reports tomorrow so let's see how this goes.


 In addition to the highlights below: 

The acquisition reduces the cash flow breakeven to $32 per barrel a reduction of A $4 per barrel.


----------



## Miner (23 August 2018)

leyy said:


> Santos announces acquisition of Quadrant Energy.
> 
> A quick review of the acquisition is very positive. This should bode very well for the share price, well done to Kevin Gallagher and the excom team.
> 
> ...



Bingo for Santos share holders.
Wesfarmers already sold out their full quota and got cash.
So on Thursday would market accept it or just drill down ?


----------



## luutzu (23 August 2018)

Miner said:


> Bingo for Santos share holders.
> Wesfarmers already sold out their full quota and got cash.
> So on Thursday would market accept it or just drill down ?




The market should be positive towards this. A bit more debt but the sales growth, per share earnings accretive, synergies... propelling Santos to be Australia's largest domestic gasman.

I scanned through the AFR on Quardrant's oil equiv. last year and the potential reserves... my calculator at $50 per barrel makes the purchase price look very, very reasonable. 

But then maybe the market had already priced this in? There's rumour of it for a couple months at least now.


----------



## HelloU (23 August 2018)

cvn is also little part of this thru quadrant.....


----------



## leyy (23 August 2018)

Another bumper result for Santos for the First Half Year report.

Dividends have resumed again since 2016 and Upstream unit production costs guidance lower by $0.20 /boe to $8.0-8.6/boe from $8.2-8.8/boe.


----------



## leyy (7 October 2018)

Santos is moving nicely.

Next price target is $8.50, there is some long term resistance at around $8.80


----------



## Miner (7 October 2018)

leyy said:


> Santos is moving nicely.
> 
> Next price target is $8.50, there is some long term resistance at around $8.80



Hey Levy
That sounds promising .
Could u please share more on the chart ?


leyy said:


> Santos is moving nicely.
> 
> Next price target is $8.50, there is some long term resistance at around $8.80


----------



## rnr (7 October 2018)

Miner said:


> Hey Levy
> That sounds promising .
> Could u please share more on the chart ?









The 2 brown rectangles represent unfilled gaps in share price and the red rectangle represents a prior area of very high volume.

I will leave it you to interpret how that will impact on the price moving higher.


----------



## Miner (7 October 2018)

rnr said:


> View attachment 89627
> 
> 
> The 2 brown rectangles represent unfilled gaps in share price and the red rectangle represents a prior area of very high volume.
> ...



Thks RNR. It makes sense.
BTW you have overestimated my skills. A Miner like me can dig a hole but can not read data logged by the geos. So real dumb fellow to read or extrapolate chart.


----------



## rnr (7 October 2018)

Miner said:


> Thks RNR. It makes sense.
> BTW you have overestimated my skills. A Miner like me can dig a hole but can not read data logged by the geos. So real dumb fellow to read or extrapolate chart.




A high probability of resistance ahead?


----------



## Miner (8 February 2019)

leyy said:


> Santos is moving nicely.
> 
> Next price target is $8.50, there is some long term resistance at around $8.80



As a person I am always envy on good charts and their predictions using the trend.
With high regards to the chart drawn on October 8, 2018 and predicted target $8.80, trying to undersand under what time frame the trend was established. What happend to the charting trend then on the current trend since then ?
By third week of December 19, STOP came down to $5.15  and today it closed  around $6.4 but nowhere near to $8.50 target.  In fact for more than 3 months the price did not even surpass Z$7.  Hi  @leyy  could you please throw some light on predicted time frame  ?
Thanks


----------



## leyy (20 February 2019)

Miner said:


> As a person I am always envy on good charts and their predictions using the trend.
> With high regards to the chart drawn on October 8, 2018 and predicted target $8.80, trying to undersand under what time frame the trend was established. What happend to the charting trend then on the current trend since then ?
> By third week of December 19, STOP came down to $5.15  and today it closed  around $6.4 but nowhere near to $8.50 target.  In fact for more than 3 months the price did not even surpass Z$7.  Hi  @leyy  could you please throw some light on predicted time frame  ?
> Thanks
> ...





Hi miner, I was looking at a monthly chart at the $8.50 target, as they didn't break out and the SP has done some consolidation they need to re-test the $7.50 level first.


----------



## Miner (29 April 2019)

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190429/pdf/444lpw0ndfj7ns.pdf
Also posted under CVN #1377 today.
Hopefully this drill result will bring good result for STO and CVN holders.
If I am allowed to speculate here without getting whip from @Joe Blow - could there be a merger or acquisition of CVN by STO in medium term ?
Being holder for both of them, it is my early morning day dream


----------



## Miner (6 June 2019)

Happy days are returning for CVN and STO holders hopefully now on wards
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190606/pdf/445ndkpn8yfbpd.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190606/pdf/445nd80w9wy5nz.pdf


----------



## sptrawler (6 June 2019)

Miner said:


> Happy days are returning for CVN and STO holders hopefully now on wards
> https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190606/pdf/445ndkpn8yfbpd.pdf
> https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190606/pdf/445nd80w9wy5nz.pdf



IMO the problem with STO is, what comes out next, good news or bad news. You never know with them.


----------



## Miner (6 June 2019)

sptrawler said:


> IMO the problem with STO is, what comes out next, good news or bad news. You never know with them.



Cvn responded with a 11% rise. Santos surely would take lead


----------



## UMike (16 September 2019)

Out.
Had a long standing sell order fulfilled just after open.

Still Got CVN and WPL.

Very happy to buy on the dip if it ever happens again anytime soon.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 September 2019)

I must admit, in spite of myself I looked at the oilers today.

For non option/future traders such as I, plain vanilla honest folk, with pitchforks ready for the invasion from Chisholm, I must admit none of the oilers impressed me. 

Let's hope ole Orange Lox bashes the bejaysus out of the Iranians. 

Then I'll be in.

gg


----------



## bigdog (14 October 2019)

*ASX Announcement today and share price +5.38 % at 10:47 AM
*
The acquisition of ConocoPhillips’ northern Australia business for US$1.39 billion. This includes operating interests in Darwin LNG, Bayu-Undan, Barossa and Poseidon. The deal also comes with a US$75 million contingent payment subject to the final investment decision (FID) on Barossa.

14/10/2019 8:20:47 AM  *Acquisition of ConocoPhillips' northern Australia interests










*
580


----------



## Miner (14 October 2019)

bigdog said:


> *ASX Announcement today and share price +5.38 % at 10:47 AM
> *
> The acquisition of ConocoPhillips’ northern Australia business for US$1.39 billion. This includes operating interests in Darwin LNG, Bayu-Undan, Barossa and Poseidon. The deal also comes with a US$75 million contingent payment subject to the final investment decision (FID) on Barossa.
> 
> ...



Great news but why share price dives down first ?


----------



## UMike (23 March 2020)

And now they are Sub $3.

Bought back in at $2.75.

Just gambling really


----------



## UMike (7 May 2020)

Sold a lot in the Main Portfolio and Super Yesterday.

Looking for some sort of retracement before i buy back in.

Funny world we are in. Is it the LNG component that is keeping this thing from slipping lower?


----------



## frugal.rock (30 September 2020)

*Santos gets approval for Narrabri gas with strict conditions








						Santos gets approval for Narrabri gas with strict conditions
					

The ruling from the NSW Independent Planning Commission will allow a phased approval of the proposed $3.6 billion coal seam gas project under 134 conditions. The ruling effectively dictates the future of the gas industry in the state.




					www.afr.com
				



*


----------



## UMike (30 September 2020)

Interestingly has fallen.
Maybe the  134 conditions is spooking the decision?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 September 2020)

UMike said:


> Interestingly has fallen.
> Maybe the  134 conditions is spooking the decision?



Been a long rumour .... Snow it's a fact, I can't imagine the opposition to this project giving up.


----------



## UMike (30 September 2020)

Couldn't help it...... Bought a bit more on the dip.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (4 December 2020)

"We’re not an electricity company so we’re not going to make a big announcement about going into renewables. Why? Because I don’t see much money in it, No 1. And No 2 it’s already a very, very crowded space. Electricity markets and retail markets are very crowded. We will continue to operate in fuels.”
_Kevin Gallagher, CEO, Santos Ltd_


----------



## sptrawler (4 December 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> "We’re not an electricity company so we’re not going to make a big announcement about going into renewables. Why? Because I don’t see much money in it, No 1. And No 2 it’s already a very, very crowded space. Electricity markets and retail markets are very crowded. We will continue to operate in fuels.”
> _Kevin Gallagher, CEO, Santos Ltd_



You just need to look at Santos price chart over the last 20 years, to get a feel for Santos IMO.


----------



## sptrawler (10 May 2021)

Is Santos and LNG the next cab off the rank for Chinese sanctions? If it is, that should free up some gas for local consumption over East.








						Santos hit by Chinese sell-down
					

A $785 million share sale in Santos by China’s ENN Group comes amid worsened trade relations between Australia and China.




					www.afr.com
				



From the article:
Santos’ strategic alliance with its major shareholder ENN Group has fallen away as a result of a sell-down by the Chinese firm that has fuelled speculation the investment has fallen victim to worsened diplomatic relations with Australia.


----------



## UMike (2 January 2022)

Might be a tough Month.
Hoping the consolidation of synergies are being auctioned  and taking into account.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 August 2022)

In the world as it is today, warry and worried, anyone who has not got oilers in their portfolio needs their head examined. 

I'm all for green energy, just as I'm all for ice cream on a hot day. 

It's just the queue to get it in to one's mitt is too long atm.

STO is my pick amongst Oz oilers for strong consistent profit in oil and gas over the next ten years. 

gg


----------



## InsvestoBoy (18 August 2022)

Someone posted this chart from their AR on twitter, I thought it was pretty interesting.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (18 August 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> STO is my pick amongst Oz oilers for strong consistent profit in oil and gas over the next ten years.




A quick tour of the LICs seems to show most of the managers prefer Woodside, out of AFI, ARG, AUI, BKI looks like only ARG has Santos in their top 20 (not that I have a preference either way).


----------



## Dona Ferentes (18 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> A quick tour of the LICs seems to show most of the managers prefer Woodside, out of AFI, ARG, AUI, BKI looks like only ARG has Santos in their top 20



probably because of a strong BHP allocation (legacy at that)


----------



## UMike (18 August 2022)

Dividend was very low considering.......
They better use that $$$ wisely


----------



## dyna (18 August 2022)

STO 's  share of the Gladstone liquified natural gas project is only showing a 5 % return on the capital invested over the past 10 years or so.
That's a whole lot less than the minimum 11% p.a. , originally expected from the giant project.


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 August 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Is Santos and LNG the next cab off the rank for Chinese sanctions?



If China doesn't want it then I've no doubt that France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands, UK, Poland, Lithuania and Greece will between them be extremely interested in buying since they all have LNG import terminals and between themselves and the other EU countries they're in a desperate situation with gas supply right now.

There might be financial implications but in a physical sense Santos will have no trouble finding buyers as long as a ship can be found on which to transport it.


----------



## sptrawler (18 August 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> If China doesn't want it then I've no doubt that France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands, UK, Poland, Lithuania and Greece will between them be extremely interested in buying since they all have LNG import terminals and between themselves and the other EU countries they're in a desperate situation with gas supply right now.
> 
> There might be financial implications but in a physical sense Santos will have no trouble finding buyers as long as a ship can be found on which to transport it.



Yes maybe I was being too critical in 2021, things change, I have never found Santos to be a positive when I've held them. 
They were offered $7 a share back in 2018 and IMO management hasn't really done anything to justify not accepting it. 
I personally think Woodside at $22 was a far better proposition as a buy and hold person. But everyone to their own, Just my two cents worth.


----------



## qldfrog (19 August 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Yes maybe I was being too critical in 2021, things change, I have never found Santos to be a positive when I've held them.
> They were offered $7 a share back in 2018 and IMO management hasn't really done anything to justify not accepting it.
> I personally think Woodside at $22 was a far better proposition as a buy and hold person. But everyone to their own, Just my two cents worth.



I was sentimental with sto a decade or so ago .a bit like Suncorp...
Qld strong, seeing signs around, some colleague from/to company,job opportunities etc bla bla..a perpetual disappointment.have not touched it for years and no regrets.
Seems its only value as a company so far has been to sell  gas cheaply overseas..So Asia can thank them, not us....too harsh?


----------



## dyna (19 August 2022)

Yeah,... a dead-beat hopeless stock, but boy! what a gift for a trader with zero T. A. skills to speak of.
For decades I've been making a ton of easy money outta this piece of crap. In and then out of it, all the time. With quite big bets , too. Better than risking my precious capital on the gambling end of the market , down there, with the penny dreadfuls.
I'm not at all surprised to see the insto's not going anywhere near this bugger, though.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 August 2022)

UMike said:


> Dividend was very low considering.......
> They better use that $$$ wisely





dyna said:


> STO 's  share of the Gladstone liquified natural gas project is only showing a 5 % return on the capital invested over the past 10 years or so.
> That's a whole lot less than the minimum 11% p.a. , originally expected from the giant project.






Smurf1976 said:


> If China doesn't want it then I've no doubt that France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands, UK, Poland, Lithuania and Greece will between them be extremely interested in buying since they all have LNG import terminals and between themselves and the other EU countries they're in a desperate situation with gas supply right now.
> 
> There might be financial implications but in a physical sense Santos will have no trouble finding buyers as long as a ship can be found on which to transport it.






sptrawler said:


> Yes maybe I was being too critical in 2021, things change, I have never found Santos to be a positive when I've held them.
> They were offered $7 a share back in 2018 and IMO management hasn't really done anything to justify not accepting it.
> I personally think Woodside at $22 was a far better proposition as a buy and hold person. But everyone to their own, Just my two cents worth.






dyna said:


> Yeah,... a dead-beat hopeless stock, but boy! what a gift for a trader with zero T. A. skills to speak of.
> For decades I've been making a ton of easy money outta this piece of crap. In and then out of it, all the time. With quite big bets , too. Better than risking my precious capital on the gambling end of the market , down there, with the penny dreadfuls.
> I'm not at all surprised to see the insto's not going anywhere near this bugger, though.



There does seem to be, how shall I put it, a little bit of negativity from ASF members on STO Santos.

The chart is quite interesting and far from negative. Although I am not about predicting the future with the cousins in China, Taiwan, Russia and Ukraine going hell for leather in a decidedly warry manner while Western Europe and the USA seem intent on electing the least fit physically and mentally to lead them. 



A consolidation area in price since early July may break up or down, the RSI is pleasingly divergent, so my guess would be up. 

Let us see what happens. 






gg


----------



## bux2000 (19 August 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> the USA seem intent on electing the least fit physically and mentally to lead them.




I am sure you would argue though "the least fit physically and mentally" Sleepy Joe is still far far superior to the Orange Man    🤔    

All the best

bux


----------



## qldfrog (19 August 2022)

dyna said:


> Yeah,... a dead-beat hopeless stock, but boy! what a gift for a trader with zero T. A. skills to speak of.
> For decades I've been making a ton of easy money outta this piece of crap. In and then out of it, all the time. With quite big bets , too. Better than risking my precious capital on the gambling end of the market , down there, with the penny dreadfuls.
> I'm not at all surprised to see the insto's not going anywhere near this bugger, though.



Actually, that is what i ended doing while completely novice,  it was oscillating like a clockwork between top and bottom range..but was playing small at the time and got burnt a few times missing some exit etc..was working and not giving the time it deserved


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 August 2022)

bux2000 said:


> I am sure you would argue though "the least fit physically and mentally" Sleepy Joe is still far far superior to the Orange Man    🤔
> 
> All the best
> 
> bux



Thanks @bux2000 

I unfortunately put Sleepy Joe and The Bronze Loon on a par, equally unfit to lead the strongest country in the world. 

I'm a Democrat by nature but see them beset by a form of political leprosy atm. and would prefer a RINO, which seems in reality impossible given the strive in which the RNC finds itself. 

gg


----------



## bux2000 (19 August 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm a Democrat by nature but see them beset by a form of political leprosy atm. and would prefer a RINO, which seems in reality impossible given the strive in which the RNC finds itself.




 Very nice to see you can still rise to the occasion and respond to the bait   

All the very best dig.

bux


----------



## rcw1 (8 November 2022)

Good afternoon,
Santos has maintained 2022 production guidance at 103-106 million barrels of oil equivalent and sustaining capital expenditure guidance at $US1.1bn.

Major projects capital expenditure in 2022 is expected to be approximately $US1.2bn, the mid-point of the previous guidance range while 2022 unit production costs are expected to be at the lower end of the $US7.90-8.30/boe guidance range.

Production in 2023 is expected to be in the range of 91-98 mmboe, influenced by the end-of field-life at Bayu-Undan, timing of completion of the expected sell-down of a five per cent stake in PNG LNG and lower Western Australia domestic gas production.

STO investor briefing attached as published today (08/11/22)

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1
Edit:  attached attachment  silly billy rcw1 was to big to attach link is


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02595351-0HG1DSOJG9UPGRI7NCRTEPMSUV/pdf?access_token=00077XuZJjFbd0Xc3ceKFwfiZy9m


----------



## rcw1 (8 November 2022)

and further
Santos has split its business in two with a new energy solutions arm in addition to its mainstay oil and gas business as it seeks to reposition the company to meet net zero emissions goals.

The company will be divided between an upstream gas and liquids business and an energy solutions unit as part of its new mantra concentrating on backfilling and sustaining oil and gas supplies, boosting decarbonisation and building a bigger clean fuels division.

The upstream business will include three LNG projects – PNG LNG, Gladstone LNG and Darwin LNG – along with Santos east coast and west coast domestic exploration and production with earnings of $US2.6bn in the first half of 2022.

The new focus replaces the transform, build, grow focus introduced by chief executive Kevin Gallagher amid increasing scrutiny of the medium term role of fossil fuels in the economy.
"Given the strong customer demand for our product now and into the future, we will seek to backfill and sustain our core assets to deliver the critical fuels the world needs into the 2040s," Mr Gallagher said.

"But we will also decarbonise these critical fuels, in-line with our target of net-zero emissions (scope 1 and 2, equity share) by 2040, and produce clean fuels as customer demand evolves. This will provide a low carbon intensity base business that will provide a strong foundation to provide sustainable shareholder returns and fund the energy transition."


----------



## UMike (8 November 2022)

Go Woke Go down %6


----------



## qldfrog (8 November 2022)

rcw1 said:


> and further
> Santos has split its business in two with a new energy solutions arm in addition to its mainstay oil and gas business as it seeks to reposition the company to meet net zero emissions goals.
> 
> The company will be divided between an upstream gas and liquids business and an energy solutions unit as part of its new mantra concentrating on backfilling and sustaining oil and gas supplies, boosting decarbonisation and building a bigger clean fuels division.
> ...



And I cry.. we got fXcked and re fXcked by China for 20y, and we want more of it, destroying any remaining strong business with BS science pretext... FFS


----------



## UMike (31 December 2022)

Put my money where my tip 2023 is buy buying more @$7.01 a while ago.
Stunned by the value fellow investors are pushing it atm.
In a position to accumulate more if I feel a bit more confident. Got a lot already. Pretty sure it will get all the Legals behind in in 2023.

Might even take over CVN if the conditions are right. I mean why continue buy back if full control of joint projects are in their best interests.


----------



## sptrawler (31 December 2022)

UMike said:


> Put my money where my tip 2023 is buy buying more @$7.01 a while ago.
> Stunned by the value fellow investors are pushing it atm.
> In a position to accumulate more if I feel a bit more confident. Got a lot already. Pretty sure it will get all the Legals behind in in 2023.
> 
> Might even take over CVN if the conditions are right. I mean why continue buy back if full control of joint projects are in their best interests.



One of the stocks I avoid, I've been burnt in the past with them, they seem to struggle during good times so I really find it hard to get excited about them. But best of luck Mike.


----------



## UMike (31 December 2022)

Thanks.
Just checked in the early days I had a couple of losing trades but been great since then. Especially the early days of COVID

I struggled with BHP though..... Go figure.


----------

