# ECX - Eclipx Group



## System (12 April 2015)

Eclipx supplies, finances and manages vehicles on behalf of corporate customers and consumers in Australia and corporate and SME customers in New Zealand. As at 31 December 2014, Eclipx managed or financed over 78,000 vehicles across Australia and New Zealand under four primary brand names, "FleetPartners", "FleetPlus", "CarLoans.com.au" and "Fleet Choice".

http://eclipxgroup.com


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## Muschu (16 August 2017)

Anyone see any potential here... I've been holding but it's getting boring as does the chart maybe?


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## tinhat (8 August 2018)

Massive selloff yesterday. Over 10% of shares on issue dumped onto the market resulting in a 40% drop in price following an after close announcement by management on Monday arvo. That announcement revising full year earning expectations to 13-17% NPATA growth, down from the previous advice of 20-30% growth (ECX end of financial year is September apparently). Adjusted for the share dilution from the acquisition of Grays online, the outlook for earnings growth is flat over the next year or so.

The sell-off seems overdone though. I bought some shares yesterday. I think the dividend (current grossed up yield is >11%) is sustainable.


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## So_Cynical (9 August 2018)

Massive over reaction as evidenced by the 10% jump up today..


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## greggles (20 August 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Massive over reaction as evidenced by the 10% jump up today..




Eclipx Group has bounced back strongly today after announcing that it has rejected an unsolicited, non-binding and indicative proposal from SG Fleet on Sunday, 19 August to acquire all of the shares in Eclipx by way of a scheme of arrangement.

From the announcement:


> The proposal (attached to this release) is highly conditional and includes significant commercial, due diligence and financing conditions.
> 
> The proposed consideration of $2.00 cash and 0.15 SG Fleet shares per Eclipx share, currently values Eclipx at $2.52 per share, a premium of 17.8% to Eclipx's last closing price of $2.14 on Friday, 17 August.
> 
> The Eclipx Board has considered the proposal and concluded that the terms, in particular the price, were inadequate and not in the best interests of shareholders. The Eclipx Board has therefore rejected the proposal. The Eclipx Board are committed to maximizing value for shareholders. The Board believes that the current share price does not reflect the long term value of the Eclipx Group, its underlying assets, its growth prospects and its operating leverage.




ECX climbed 35c following the announcement to finish the day at $2.49, up 16.36% from Friday's close.


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## barney (20 August 2018)

Makes the recent huge gap down and subsequent buying look just a tad dodgy  ….. 

There is no such thing as Insider Trading on the ASX of course


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## Miner (20 March 2019)

ECX lost a golden opportunity to be taken over by MMS and hide seek policy did not help the shareholders and management either. A big shock to market resulted into MMS withdrawal and the latest share performance . My sincere sympathy to those who have been loyal to this stock and could not dump earlier. Personally I bought on a big dump few weeks back and sold out when it recovered. But with today's total uncertain scenario I will not go near to that gambling.
As a total out of the blue and guess could MMS be aiming for SIQ to take over instead of ECX and consolidate ?
DNH MMS or ECX but do hold SIQ and this is not to ramp up.


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## tinhat (20 March 2019)

Miner said:


> ECX lost a golden opportunity to be taken over by MMS and hide seek policy did not help the shareholders and management either. A big shock to market resulted into MMS withdrawal and the latest share performance . My sincere sympathy to those who have been loyal to this stock and could not dump earlier. Personally I bought on a big dump few weeks back and sold out when it recovered. But with today's total uncertain scenario I will not go near to that gambling.
> As a total out of the blue and guess could MMS be aiming for SIQ to take over instead of ECX and consolidate ?
> DNH MMS or ECX but do hold SIQ and this is not to ramp up.




Ouch! I was lucky to make a 30% return on holding ECX for two weeks last August. I won't be taking that risk again though on this sell off. No wonder MMS walked away.

From today's announcement:



> *...Eclipx Group NPATA which is now down 42.4% compared with the first 5 months of FY18.
> 
> ... in this uncertain environment we will not be providing full year guidance *





Below is the announcement in full. I have added the bold.



> Level 32, 1 O’Connell Street
> Sydney NSW 2000
> W  www.eclipx.com
> 
> ...


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## So_Cynical (21 March 2019)

We should not be surprised with new cars sales down something like 20% that has to flow on to auctions and leasing etc, all car sales...the core business is ok, way way over sold, but i have said that before and was proved wrong.


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## greggles (22 March 2019)

Bannister Law investigating a potential class action against Eclipx Group, specifically whether Eclipx breached its continuous disclosure obligations in not announcing its revised profit growth forecasts before 7 August 2018.

http://bannisterlaw.com.au/eclipx-group-investigation/


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## peter2 (28 March 2019)

MMS was prepared to pay 2.85 (implied value) per share for ECX. Less than six months later the ECX share price in the market is about 0.67. Is this price too low to ignore?


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## So_Cynical (28 March 2019)

peter2 said:


> MMS was prepared to pay 2.85 (implied value) per share for ECX. Less than six months later the ECX share price in the market is about 0.67. Is this price too low to ignore?




For me it was, been so many over sold stocks lately, most have come good - a couple have since revisited the lows, time is our friend when it comes to these things.


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## Value Hunter (2 April 2019)

What scares me about this situation is that MMS walked away from a take over deal and decided not to buy Eclipx despite the share price nosediving and appearing to be dirt cheap on all metrics. MMS could have come out with a revised lower bid to take into account the profit downgrade but the fact that they chose to just walk away when they obviously know much more about Eclipx than any of us do makes me think that there are more skeletons in the closet. 

On the other hand there is a limit how low MMS could lob a a revised (down) bid and still be successful and it would be much much higher than the current share price so perhaps that was what killed the deal, perhaps if they could buy at todays share price they would.


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## peter2 (5 April 2019)

Now that the SIA has been mutually terminated, MMS is free to bid for ECX if they still want parts of it.


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## So_Cynical (17 April 2019)

Looks like the shorts have been loading up, not sure what to make of today's 9% jump, its either the shorters taking the SP to the edge of the cliff or the shorters covering.

I've no idea, just a mug punter.


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## Smurf1976 (17 April 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> Looks like the shorts have been loading up, not sure what to make of today's 9% jump, its either the shorters taking the SP to the edge of the cliff or the shorters covering.
> 
> I've no idea, just a mug punter.



Reported outstanding shorts = 1,689,750

Today's trading volume = 13,627,646

Time will tell but there would seem to be a lot of buying and selling going on unrelated to the shorts.


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## peter2 (24 April 2019)

OK I'll come clean. I've started an off plan, gut feel*, intuitive trade on ECX. 
I've also placed a _wide_ initial SL to keep the position small in case of further downgrades.

It's still possible that the down turn in the vehicle market may force more consolidation in the industry. 
[APE & AHG not a surprise]






(*) My W% with these is lousy (~10%). If ECX fills the gap back to 1.80   I'll let my "gut" party hard. 
[No antibiotics for a week - the bacteria can party hard, I'll cease the PPI's - the bacteria can trip on as much acid as they like.]


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## Trav. (7 July 2019)

@peter2 I stumbled across this today after playing with a few different scans and looks like you might be ready to celebrate your "gut" party as ECX up 20% on Friday to close @$1.55.

Hopefully you still hold as you would be doing well.


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## IFocus (7 July 2019)

Nice gap play as well


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## Skate (8 July 2019)

Trav. said:


> @peter2 I stumbled across this today after playing with a few different scans and looks like you might be ready to celebrate your "gut" party as ECX up 20% on Friday to close @$1.55.
> 
> Hopefully you still hold as you would be doing well.




Hi @Trav. It appears @peter2 ECX intuitive trade has worked out well (ATM) & his intuition (gut feeling) seems well founded coming from a base of experience where as my CAM strategy requires additional confirmation before entering the trade.

*Disclaimer - *Holder of (ECX)
My CAM strategy is a holder of ECX. I'm posting a chart so you can see the entry signal. (currently up 14.59%)

The CAM signal in this case was a countertrend. The CAM strategy uses two simple indicators to confirm that a countertrend is in motion. With systematic trading nothing works perfectly but at the moment the position is heading in the right direction.

*CAM Strategy* - EXC Chart





Skate.


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## Trav. (8 July 2019)

Nice work @Skate your systems are well put together and thanks for sharing your trades as it gives me some motivation to continue my journey and hopefully become a profitable trader.


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## peter2 (17 September 2019)

Gap fill target reached this week. Another winner for the gut feel trade plan. These wins are so few that they're worth celebrating. I've sold half to take some profit and this allows me to be more patient.
Update on the progress of Eclipx's Simplification Plan to be released 24/9/19. there may be some price volatility around this news.


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## rnr (19 February 2020)

Keeping a watch on Eclipx Group over the next few bars to see what action plays out. Looking for a reversal around the $1.60 - $1.68 mark forming a 1-2-3 B/O trade above $1.845 or a tighter risk trade created by a trend reversal when a pivot low is formed. Current status: DNH.


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## peter2 (25 May 2020)

Worth watching. ECX have divested 5/6 non core businesses and reduced costs significantly. ECX has already noticed an increase in end of lease vehicle sales. ECX price movement seems to be doing much better than MMS.


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## peter2 (21 August 2020)

There seems to be a not so subtle push to get commuters using their own cars rather then public transport. Recently a large US company banned it's employees from using public transport to get to work. If they used public transport they would be required to quarantine at home for 14 days. Governments here in Aust are also requesting people avoid public transport if possible. 

Cars are still in demand. Car finance companies are doing OK as well (see recent BO in MNY). 
Car leasing companies should also do OK (recent good news MMS). 

ECX has been bumping up against resistance at 1.50. There's a hint of an ascending triangle with a target near 1.85 (old highs). 






MMS could have bought ECX for 1/3 current price.


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## Dona Ferentes (11 March 2021)

The board of Eclipx Group is trying to keep a lid on things ahead of the release of the company’s March half year results which should be ahead of consensus because of the shortage of new cars and the boost that has given to used car valuations – especially vehicles coming off leases.

It’s an interesting move to try and lower expectations for the full year before the interim results have been released, but reading the Eclipx statement to the ASX yesterday it makes sense.

What Eclipx is trying to tell shareholders the good times will not last, so don’t go thinking ‘bonanza’ for the full year based on the half year figures. Thanks to the boom in used car prices, Eclipx said yesterday its first five months of trading had produced much stronger results than forecast.

The fleet management and financial services company held its annual general meeting in late February when it told shareholders the first quarter 2020-21 saw end-of-lease income materially outperform “given strong but temporary used car market conditions”.


> “This trend has continued through the end of February 2021, with the Group recording end-of-lease income of $26.4 million or $5,766 per unit (unaudited),″ Eclipx told shareholders. “This represents an increase of 70 per cent compared to the first half of 2019-20, which was $15.5 million or $2,468 per unit”.




However, it says this trend was “temporary in nature and has principally been driven by the limited supply of new vehicles into the Australian and New Zealand markets”. Third party information suggests that global supply will be restored by June 2021.


> “When the used car market normalises, the Group anticipated the relevant benchmark for future end-of-lease income will be more consistent with that of first half 2019-20,” Eclipx said.




(X4 since Covid lows)


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