# March downturn???



## Jay-684 (1 March 2006)

I have read previously that March and October are the worst performing months of the year. They were also the worst performing months for my portfolio last year, losing 4% and 6% respectively.

What are peoples thoughts on this? October is obviously because of '87, but why March? After todays 60-odd point drop, could it happen again?


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## bvbfan (1 March 2006)

Are you referring to Australia or the US?

I think September is actually worse historically than October but can't remember whether that was the US or here


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## Jay-684 (1 March 2006)

Aus


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## bullmarket (1 March 2006)

Hi Jay-684

I've attached a monthly chart of the All Ords (XAO) index from the crash in 87 to mid Feb. (my data subscription expired and so no more data)

Just eye-balling the Octobers, it looks that although there have been a few really bad ones the bad Octobers  out number the good ones by just over half.  So I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the month of October.

I think people tend to remember the bad ones more easily and for longer than the good ones   

I think this March could be a down month, not because of any historical tendencies, but more because we are near all time highs in an upward wave peak in the overall uptrend since 1991.  I posted in another thread recently that I thought there are sufficient geo-political and global economic storm  clouds on the horizon to keep investors wary atm.

Anyway the chart below should be able to give you an idea of the historical tendecies for the months of March and October.

cheers

bullmarket


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## crackaton (1 March 2006)

Beware the Ides of March. Something to do with funds re-alligning theit portfolios. No big deal.


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## wayneL (1 March 2006)

Jay-684 said:
			
		

> I have read previously that March and October are the worst performing months of the year. They were also the worst performing months for my portfolio last year, losing 4% and 6% respectively.
> 
> What are peoples thoughts on this? October is obviously because of '87, but why March? After todays 60-odd point drop, could it happen again?




I've got data going back to 1980 and the worst performing months in terms of up months verses down months are February and June.

The worst month in terms of points is of course, October. A distant 2nd is February. 

March is the 4th worst month in terms of points.

I'll post a table up later.

Cheers


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## wayneL (1 March 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> I've got data going back to 1980 and the worst performing months in terms of up months verses down months are February and June.
> 
> The worst month in terms of points is of course, October. A distant 2nd is February.
> 
> ...




An interesting point is that March has been a very poor performer since 1993, but a good performer before then....ahhh statistics


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## jet-r (3 March 2006)

today's trade deficit blowout has put some pressure on the market sentiment, but is it enough to send the market into another correction before we hit new high?

Analysts hold different views, some believe that the market is now fully priced and need a correction to bring it down to a more comfortable level before it can move on further, others believe that we have already had a correction in Feb and its only a matter of time to move above 5000.


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## yogi-in-oz (3 March 2006)

Hi folks,

XJO ..... will be watching the following dates for 
significant moves, mostly negative for March 2006:

     07032006 ..... significant and negative???

     17032006 ..... negative news???

21-22032006 ..... significant and negative???

=====

Anniversary:

23032000 = market high, when hitech bubble burst.     

=====

     24032006 ..... minor and positive???

April 2006 ..... :

03-04042006 ..... negative news ... market same level,
                        as 17032006 ... ???

    06042006 ..... significant and positive???

    20042006 ..... significant and negative???

27-28042006 ..... significant and positive news???

have a great weekend

   yogi


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## tech/a (4 March 2006)

Yes October and March are risky months to be involved in share trading.

The other risky months are.
Janurary
Feburary
April
May
June
July
August
September
November and December


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## nizar (4 March 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Yes October and March are risky months to be involved in share trading.
> 
> The other risky months are.
> Janurary
> ...




yes I've heard that b4 but loving it...

this ones also good, the 4 most dangerous words in investing are: "It's different this time"


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## tech/a (4 March 2006)

Fools and their money are easily parted---evidently.

My question is 
"Whats a fool doing with money in the first place"?

One of the best investment tips I have heard is.
"Dont listen to investment tips."

If your trading the index then the so called downturns may have some relevance.
Other than that they are just another month in paradise.


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## GreatPig (4 March 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> One of the best investment tips I have heard is.
> "Dont listen to investment tips."



Reminds me of a cartoon I saw yonks ago, with some huffed-up cigar-chomping executive type spouting, "What this country needs is less people telling us what this country needs!"

GP


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## jet-r (4 March 2006)

yogi,

i know this is a newbie question. 
Where do you get these from and what are these forcasts based on?




			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> XJO ..... will be watching the following dates for
> significant moves, mostly negative for March 2006:
> ...


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## retroaugogo (4 March 2006)

Just the old adage "Sell in May, go away, buy again on St Leger's day"
occurring earlier each year as traders try to prempt others.


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## yogi-in-oz (4 March 2006)

Hi jet-r,

XJO ..... time cycles from analysis of the x-axis (TIME)
on our charts.

Gann showed us, that EVERY market has its own key
pressure points and often, these can be directly related 
to a count by calendar days or the 360 degree dial and 
planetary movements, as wel ..... 

happy days

  yogi


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