# Will the XAO make it 6 straight declines in April?



## dhukka (31 March 2008)

The XAO shed *-4.7%* in the month of March making it the fifth straight decline in the XAO starting in November 2007. That hasn't happened since the XAO fell for 5 straight months from June to October 1992. 

So what will the month of April bring? I have data for the XAO going back 24 years and in that time the XAO has never fallen for 6 consecutive months. So what say you? 

The Poll will stay open for the rest of this week.


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## vishalt (31 March 2008)

I'm tipping more of a rise than a fall, there has to be a gain month sometime, 5 is huge already and I think a big amount of the bad news has been priced in.. but there could be a tad more to come if the US ******** banks Citigroup/Bank of America report losses.


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## chops_a_must (1 April 2008)

I think it will by a small amount, looks like it's in a bog.

I think you would agree Dhukka, that we have never seen a problem like what we have, therefore we haven't seen a market like this.

So much "wealth" has been destroyed. It's pretty wounded...


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## Awesomandy (1 April 2008)

I think it will either be relatively flat (small rise or small drop), or there might be a big drop, depending on some of the things that will happen this month, including some sub-prime resets, and the imminent collapse of some hedge funds.


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## dhukka (1 April 2008)

So far, twice as many people expect the XAO to decline as expect it to rise in April. A good contrary indicator perhaps?


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## chops_a_must (1 April 2008)

dhukka said:


> So far, twice as many people expect the XAO to decline as expect it to rise in April. A good contrary indicator perhaps?




Yep. I'm betting on Melbourne again this week as well.


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## Trembling Hand (1 April 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Yep. I'm betting on Melbourne again this week as well.




Melbourne! 

I'll throw my  in. I reckon a rise to put in another lower high or MAYBE tickle the last high. Just to trick the punters thats all is OK.


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## rub92me (1 April 2008)

Hoping for a small rise, however with the volatility as it is I''m not putting money on it.


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## MRC & Co (1 April 2008)

dhukka said:


> So far, twice as many people expect the XAO to decline as expect it to rise in April. A good contrary indicator perhaps?




ha ha, you been over at lowrisk.com dhukka?

Similar "game" over there, however on the US market.

Could well be a good contrary indicator. 

I have no opinion at the moment.  Somewhere within the 0-5% either way.


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## JTLP (1 April 2008)

The news from the US seems to be pretty positive atm...i was expecting some big jobs based on financial/growth figures but alas nothing.

So whats happening? Any impending news that could send her in to a tailspin? (not including the "skeletons" )


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## Whiskers (1 April 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> I'll throw my  in. I reckon a rise to put in another lower high or MAYBE tickle the last high. Just to trick the punters thats all is OK.




I'll go with that TH... except the trick will be that it is all OK. Trust me


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## JTLP (2 April 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> Melbourne!
> 
> I'll throw my  in. I reckon a rise to put in another lower high or MAYBE tickle the last high. Just to trick the punters thats all is OK.




Things are again looking rosy in the US of A (ableit early days). What was your selection TH?


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## Trembling Hand (2 April 2008)

I think I hit the 5% to 10% rise. But maybe around the 5700 mark if the shorts can be pressed a little? :microwave

Can you lock in your bet dhukka with a option hedge if it hits it by weeks end??


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## Trembling Hand (28 April 2008)

Unless we get a 200 odd drop over the next two days it seems that 65% of people were being to pessimistic.


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## happyjack (29 April 2008)

not if this means what I think it does, if it doesnt transfer it is a full textbook cup and  handle on todays XAO

doesn't look like it came out, check your own charts

Happyjack


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## happyjack (29 April 2008)

6150 on my count for May

Happyjack


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