# MQG - Macquarie Group



## serp

Hi first time poster long time reader, I've only started getting into the sharemarket game about 3 months ago, I have decided to watch the market for about about a year before I start putting my hard earned into it, I would say I spend at least 2 to 3 hours a day reading/analysing etc. ANYWAY...

I've been watching the banking sector quite keenly and I'm wondering where everyone thinks MBLs price will end up before the end of the year? Its constantly making higher gains than most other banks and I through my research (so far) I can't understand why it has such huge standings in the market.

I'm also interested to here your thought on MBL compared to other bank stocks and wonder where you think the majors and the other investment banks will be towards year end.

This is such a wonderful site, I hope to post more and read a lot more here in the future!


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## Milk Man

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

Welcome serp
great bunch of guys here hey

I don't know if you are a terrible anarchist or a funny-mental    as yet but from a technical outlook it may be making a double top. It'll be nice to see if it busts on through that high!


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## Milk Man

*Re: MBL where will it end?*



			
				loakglen said:
			
		

> Welcome serp
> great bunch of guys here hey
> 
> I don't know if you are a terrible anarchist or a funny-mental    as yet but from a technical outlook it may be making a double top. It'll be nice to see if it busts on through that high!




looks like it has! didn't download yesterdy


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## DTM

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

Hi all, just trying something out. Looks like hocus pocus and I'm not sure what the heck it is...., I'm just experimenting so please don't ask me questions about it because I don't know what it is, and although am risking public humiliation and embarressment, I am still willing to try things out in the market in the remote chance of finding something useful.

Using MBL weekly charts, red circles are projected turning points in the future, ie resistance points, and blue circles support.


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## RichKid

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

Nothing wrong with experimenting DTM, always good to keep things simple though imho.
Here's the longterm chart to put things in perspective- what a run!! Might be a good time to buy on the pull back as that previous high is holding. Not sure how vulnerable MBL is to a stockmarket downturn, maybe it's listed investment vehcles (MAP, MIG etc) will be stable rather than stellar performers.


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## ob1kenobi

*Re: MBL where will it end?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Nothing wrong with experimenting DTM, always good to keep things simple though imho.
> Here's the longterm chart to put things in perspective- what a run!! Might be a good time to buy on the pull back as that previous high is holding. Not sure how vulnerable MBL is to a stockmarket downturn, maybe it's listed investment vehcles (MAP, MIG etc) will be stable rather than stellar performers.




I agree. I've had MBL on a watchlist for awhile but haven't been certain that they would be value for money. I think they continue as a strong performer because of their role in the market as a major merchant / investment bank, its own publicity and the specialised funds (eg MAP, MCG, etc). It may be that they are well run also! I'm still waiting to see where it goes but no stock is impervious to a downturn.


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## serp

*Re: MBL where will it end?*



			
				loakglen said:
			
		

> Welcome serp
> great bunch of guys here hey
> 
> I don't know if you are a terrible anarchist or a funny-mental    as yet but from a technical outlook it may be making a double top. It'll be nice to see if it busts on through that high!




I think its burst on through that high now, I'll be interested to see what happens next week. Up 4% since monday though!


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## TjamesX

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

Wow DTM.... those charts have reminded me why I only use 'limited' TA in my share investing - my head is still hurting.

MBL are not exposed to the same risks that the traditional banks are - so they need to be viewed differently. Where they generate their revenue streams from is very different. I did happen to read my parents super plan written by a financial planner, it proposed Maquarie wrap accounts - essentially move your share portfolio into a their wrap account, and they'll charge you 0.8% or so on the total value of portfolio per year.....nice..... Note that the fin planner was taking around 1% on total portfolio value as well, just for putting them into the wrap accounts.....nice..... everyone gets their bit along the way....Further note, there are managed funds recommended under the wrap account, they have their own management fees associated. Needless to say they havent implemented the 'plan'

I reckon youd be 2-3% down before you even got off the blocks!

This is relevant because Maqurie are moving to more mum & dad revenue streams especially through super - they're leveraging off their name and the fact that they make squillions doing their 'real' business of investment banking. this healps smooth out the more volatile revenue associated with investment banking business.

I don't hold MBL but I do hold ARG (Argo - LIC). Argo's largest shareholding is in MBL (around 190mill) a nice way to get some exposure.

TJ


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## serp

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

Geez its nearly up a $1 in this mornings trade, I picked this break out (thats what its called right?) on paper just as it was turning $45, god I wish I was past my self imposed probationary period for that one!


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## serp

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

wow nearly up a $1.40 today. I think the resistance barrier has been well and truly broken


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## TjamesX

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

Article from airview stating that MBL are being rerated to outperform by CFSB. MBL are uniquely positioned to take advantage of private money going into infrastructure.

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=2039

CSFB have a target price of $70


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## TjamesX

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

...........and so MBL are up $2.27 or 4% so far today, current price is $57.48


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## serp

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

Up over $3 gain for today with a few minutes of trading left, I wonder if its still going to keep climbing like a mad man or readjust any time soon?


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## RichKid

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

A very steep climb, I think people are getting excited. With the all ords near all time highs I expect a pullback at some stage as the bluechips get hit in a downturn, too late to enter now imo unless you have very very tight stops. Maybe BNB will ride MBL's coat tails.


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## serp

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

A lot of activity today on MBL, went up over the $60 mark then some profit taking occured I guess, still finished with a small gain though.


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## DTM

*Re: MBL where will it end?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> A very steep climb, I think people are getting excited. With the all ords near all time highs I expect a pullback at some stage as the bluechips get hit in a downturn, too late to enter now imo unless you have very very tight stops. Maybe BNB will ride MBL's coat tails.




I agree with you Rich.  Seems to be a lot of hype in the market and definitely a lot of greed.  I'm bullish on MBL and bought call options on it yesterday as it retested my support line but didn't break it.  Today it moved up well and am hoping for a bit more on Monday.  I am hoping the US markets won't fall tonight (its ready to fall soon).  I am bearish on the US markets and am hoping to get a few more up days there so that I can look to get out of MBL on Monday.

I've attached a chart of MBL showing where my resistace turned into support.


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## RichKid

*Re: MBL where will it end?*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> I agree with you Rich.  Seems to be a lot of hype in the market and definitely a lot of greed.  I'm bullish on MBL and bought call options on it yesterday as it retested my support line but didn't break it.  Today it moved up well and am hoping for a bit more on Monday.  I am hoping the US markets won't fall tonight (its ready to fall soon).  I am bearish on the US markets and am hoping to get a few more up days there so that I can look to get out of MBL on Monday.
> 
> I've attached a chart of MBL showing where my resistace turned into support.




Hope you make some dough out of this one DTM, beware of that big candle and the steepness of the climb. Brokers have targets of $70 on this but I don't see why it should happen overnight. Hopefull you'll get out of this before it retraces. Good luck!


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## TjamesX

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

Quarterly results are in and MBL is edging towards $65

$70 isn't looking so far away now


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## resourceful_man

*Re: MBL where will it end?*



			
				serp said:
			
		

> Geez its nearly up a $1 in this mornings trade, I picked this break out (thats what its called right?) on paper just as it was turning $45, god I wish I was past my self imposed probationary period for that one!




$45 is now the new support level, surely she has to let off some steam ?
MBL will come back to it's support sooner or later.


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## Julia

*Re: MBL where will it end?*



			
				resourceful_man said:
			
		

> $45 is now the new support level, surely she has to let off some steam ?
> MBL will come back to it's support sooner or later.




How many members are holding MBL?

I'm one happy holder with the SP up $3.97 today to a close of $74.04.

Julia


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## RichKid

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

Good article, not the strongest day for MBL today but that's one powerful trend that shows no signs of slowing.



> Big deals on the horizon for Macquarie Bank
> SMH September 27, 2005 - 4:43PM
> 
> 
> Macquarie Bank Ltd shares continued their stellar run today as investors look forward to a number of potential deals over the coming months.
> 
> As the investment bank's shares race towards the $80 mark, analysts are also questioning whether a share split could be conducted to make the stock more attractive to mum and dad investors.
> 
> Macquarie Bank shares hit an intraday peak of $78.23 before ending up 60 cents at a new closing high of $74.64, making for a rise of $4.57 in the last two sessions.
> 
> The surge came after the bank yesterday upgraded its guidance for the current financial year ending March 31, 2006, saying it expects net profit to at least equal last year's $823 million.
> 
> Brokers today upgraded their forecasts, saying they believed the guidance was conservative as a number of major deals were still on the horizon.
> 
> Macquarie Bank had previously indicated it was considering leading a consortium in a bid for the London Stock Exchange.
> 
> British media outlets are reporting that a bid of more than £1.5 billion ($3.6 billion) could be announced as early as this week.
> 
> The investment bank has also appointed advisers as it prepares to float its radio assets into a new media fund.
> 
> Macquarie is also considering listing a couple of its infrastructure funds - one in Europe and the other in Korea, with a spokesman today confirming that the latter may occur "by the end of the calendar year".
> 
> Credit Suisse First Boston now believes Macquarie Bank's earnings could top the $1 billion mark in any of the next three years.
> 
> However, Goldman Sachs JBWere has cautioned that the share price was starting to look fully valued.
> 
> "Earnings risk on the downside could emerge from performance fees," said analyst James Freeman.
> 
> "So far in the second half of this calendar year, Macquarie Bank's specialist funds have not performed well.
> 
> "Should this underperformance continue, performance fees will come under increasing pressure."
> 
> There are also suggestions that the share price is becoming unwieldy - especially for the 20 per cent of Macquarie Bank's shareholders that are retail investors.
> 
> It's now one of the highest value stocks on the Australian Stock Exchange.
> 
> UBS, which has valued the bank's shares at $85 each, said a share split would be positive for the stock as Australian retail investors had traditionally been reluctant to purchase stocks with high share prices.
> 
> A share split technically does not affect the underlying value of the stock - it simply reduces the price through the issuance of more shares.
> 
> Macquarie chief financial officer Greg Ward said in July that a share split was not on the cards because it would not generate significant shareholder value.
> 
> Intersuisse director of equities Andrew Sekely said he thought it unlikely that Macquarie Bank would now change its mind.
> 
> "For an American investor, $76 is no big deal really," Mr Sekely said.
> 
> "There are prices in the hundreds in the United States."


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## Yippyio

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

During the last two days I have noticed BNB getting swept along (up) with the strong sentiment towards MBL, however BNB did not retreat yesterday afternoon, investors held. CGF by comparison was pretty poor.


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## dutchie

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

The DOW is up this morning so going on past few days
MBL could go up $2 - $3 (thats the theory anyway!)

But when has the stockmarket followed theories???


This is not advice just an observation!


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## michael_selway

*Re: MBL where will it end?*



			
				dutchie said:
			
		

> The DOW is up this morning so going on past few days
> MBL could go up $2 - $3 (thats the theory anyway!)
> 
> But when has the stockmarket followed theories???
> 
> 
> This is not advice just an observation!




its 63 atm from high of 78, not sure if it will go below 60 u think?


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## dutchie

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

Michael

For a very short period yesterday morning MBL rose about $2.70 but fell the rest of the day  (DOW was up).

The DOW is down this morning so I would not be surprised at all if it did fall below $60 today - with this stock who knows.

This is not advise but I would not be buying anything at the moment - (except maybe some puts). The US market is not looking good and we seem to be following it - irrespective of fundamentals.

These comments are pure guesswork so don't take them seriously.


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## Kauri

*Re: MBL where will it end?*

Thought today might have been the day to take another bite but the Vol says otherwise.


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## visual

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I thought todays news re mbl wasnt that bad!
yet the price is down 5 bucks.


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## Julia

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Hi Visual,

It was recovering as you wrote.  Good buying opportunity.

Julia


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## nizar

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> Hi Visual,
> 
> It was recovering as you wrote.  Good buying opportunity.
> 
> Julia





yes i agree, good buying opportunity...

i been wanting 2 pick these up for sub-65 for a while...

why the sell-off u think?


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## michael_selway

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> yes i agree, good buying opportunity...
> 
> i been wanting 2 pick these up for sub-65 for a while...
> 
> why the sell-off u think?




Hi an annoucement today

Basically bad forecast to come, as the lastest half yr much worse than first half year. So MBL most likely slow down from now on (compared to last 2 yrs). Reaching its all time high of $78 in a 3 yr time frame, seems in doubt now.

----------------------------------------

In commenting on the Bank’s business Groups for the half to date, Mr Moss said: 

• The Investment Banking Group expects its second half profit to be significantly lower in 2H06 than 1H06ii and 2H05iii, due to the absence of significant performance fees. The underlying business continues to perform strongly, with growth in staff, offices in international locations, and equity under management. Overall the full year result is expected to be up on the prior corresponding period. 

• The Treasury and Commodities Group expects the 2H06 to be well down on a very strong 1H06. There were strong results across all divisions and the US energy and commodities business continues to grow. Overall, the full year result is expected to be up on the prior corresponding period. 

• The Banking and Property Group expects 2H06 to be up on 1H06 with all major businesses performing well. The Australian mortgages business is experiencing very strong market share growth and there has been substantial growth in property funds under management. However, the investment in new businesses has limited profit growth for the Group in the current year. Overall, the full year result is expected to be up on the prior corresponding period (excluding the one off gain from the formation of the Macquarie Goodman Group). 

• The Equity Markets Group expects its 2H06 result to be down substantially relative to 1H06 due to poor trading conditions in Hong Kong, and quieter second half market conditions in Australia and South Africa. Overall, however, the full year result is expected to be well up on the prior corresponding period. 

• The Financial Services Group expects its 2H06 to be down relative to 1H06, due to seasonality, deal flow and increased investment in businesses in 2H06. Overall, the full year result is expected to be up significantly on the prior corresponding period. 

• The Funds Management Group expects 2H06 result to be marginally ahead of 1H06 and overall, the full year result to be up on the prior corresponding period.


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## TheAnalyst

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I sold my mbl installlments today and took a loss...i was actually disappointed and i think so were a lot of others as the news is actually a tame downgrade and looks like growth is coming off the boil.

The profit was not bad but it wasnt like the other one that doubled last time and sent the stock flying this one says things are soft and when you account for inflation over this year and next thats 3% compounded of the money invested in the stock.

At the moment a lot of better places to park money...not saying there wont be a technical bounce on the way but mid term not so great.

sleep well for a little mbl and not a good affect on BNB


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## markrmau

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Looks like a nice short doesn't it? Broken out below the 61-65$ trading range on higher volume. Stop circa $63.

NOTE: Average broker recco is approx $80 so this is going against the experts recommendation.


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## michael_selway

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> Looks like a nice short doesn't it? Broken out below the 61-65$ trading range on higher volume. Stop circa $63.
> 
> NOTE: Average broker recco is approx $80 so this is going against the experts recommendation.




so what price is the suporrt u think? liek what price do u think it can go down to based on the charts

thx

MS


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## markrmau

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Good question - may be it isn't such a good short.

The reason I say this is that looking purely at the charts, you would have to say that the next major support is about $50. So a reward:risk of about 3:1. However, I seriously doubt it will go back to $50. I think it will bounce off $55. Now only a reward to risk of 1.5:1

Maybe I should wind the stop back to about $61.50 to bring the ratio back up a bit....but this would be too easily stopped out.


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## visual

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

OK,does anybody know why macquarie is in trading halt,hope its good news  or


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## sails

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Visual, could be due to earnings announcement tomorrow - here's the link to the shareholder calendar on their website:  http://www.macquarie.com.au/au/about_macquarie/shareholder_calendar.htm


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## RichKid

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				sails said:
			
		

> Visual, could be due to earnings announcement tomorrow - here's the link to the shareholder calendar on their website:  http://www.macquarie.com.au/au/about_macquarie/shareholder_calendar.htm




...or maybe they've got a cut of the yummy Telstra float...


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## visual

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

cant make up my mind will tomorrow bring good tidingis for mac or not?
or is the price going to fall because the market has already factored the good news in


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## noirua

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

It is surprising that a Bank like Macquari, is to get involved with an umpteenth rescue attempt of the French and UK company, Eurotunnel ( ETL ).

ETL was floated on the Paris and London stock exchanges in November 1990 at £2.85 a share ( they now stand at 25p ) and moved to a high, close to £10.00.

Why did Eurotunnel get into such dire trouble?  One was the debt position, that was agreed at rates between 5% and 7%, these rose to 11% to 17%. Forecasts of 20,000 travellers per day fell far short of the mark and only stand at around 7,000 per day at present.

The other down factor is the reduction in costs to France, particularly from the many UK airports and ferries. Infact, NZ's Infratil ( IFT ) have bought the Kent International Airport ( Manston, Isle of Thanet, North East Kent ) and are now on a four year plan to start international flights, particularly to France.

Tread carefully Macquarie Bank and don't end up in a debt mess, with the French and UK's disastrous Eurotunnel.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4771829.stm


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## visual

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

And now watch as mac.reaches 60 dollars on the back of this news  :swear:


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## michael_selway

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				visual said:
			
		

> And now watch as mac.reaches 60 dollars on the back of this news  :swear:




what do u guys think of BNB or RCD as opposed to MBL?

thx

MS


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## bug

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

It could be argued MBL offers the greatest opportunity as it embarks on its next stage of development - the bank has been significantly bulking up its international staff, earnings and deals the last two reporting seasons, which will continue to be the case in subsequent periods.

Compared to the smaller players - BNB, RCD and MFS - who do similar activities on a more specialised scale, MBL has been able to diversify itself strongly in a commanding breadth of activities/products,
as well as increasingly expanding where it does business around the globe. MBL's exposure to market downturns should be mitigated as it gains this access to the greater range of deals and opportunites world-wide.

This should represent the next watershed of growth, as MBL's international income moves beyond its current 50% level.  The previous growth came from large infrastructure deals in Australia, which have lost prominence in MBL's growth profile.

All of MBL's seven key divisions are firing. Offshore earnings also rose 59 per cent in the result just announced.  The bank's long term growth seems assured as it builds on already strong foundations.


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## michael_selway

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				bug said:
			
		

> It could be argued MBL offers the greatest opportunity as it embarks on its next stage of development - the bank has been significantly bulking up its international staff, earnings and deals the last two reporting seasons, which will continue to be the case in subsequent periods.
> 
> Compared to the smaller players - BNB, RCD and MFS - who do similar activities on a more specialised scale, MBL has been able to diversify itself strongly in a commanding breadth of activities/products,
> as well as increasingly expanding where it does business around the globe. MBL's exposure to market downturns should be mitigated as it gains this access to the greater range of deals and opportunites world-wide.
> 
> This should represent the next watershed of growth, as MBL's international income moves beyond its current 50% level.  The previous growth came from large infrastructure deals in Australia, which have lost prominence in MBL's growth profile.
> 
> All of MBL's seven key divisions are firing. Offshore earnings also rose 59 per cent in the result just announced.  The bank's long term growth seems assured as it builds on already strong foundations.




Yeah MBL has the most diversified. However EPS growth % pa wise may not be as good as the others? Larger base now as it once was?

MBL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 382.3 436.2 452.0 489.0 
DPS 215.0 238.0 260.0 285.5

BNB - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 77.0 95.0 116.1 138.2 
DPS 23.0 29.1 36.5 43.7 

RCD - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 32.0 49.3 56.7 64.7 
DPS 30.6 42.0 49.0 55.0 

MFS - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS -6.8 24.4 30.1 37.3 
DPS -- 13.5 18.0 22.5

thx

MS


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## bug

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

It could be hard to say who the actual EPS winner will be, based on which company gets the most deals and whether their markets go sour at all.  

The smaller companies are coming off a numerically smaller growth base, while MBL is building more international scale to take advantage of bigger deals to boost its EPS. MBL should have the ability to do even more of what its smaller rival BNB is doing:
BNB announced its latest earnings upgrade on Friday, after clinching its sizeable eircom takeover and socking away the related fees from the transaction.

BNB has started making noises about Australian investors not supporting its infrastructure fund (BBI), and that it will be setting up more international specialist funds and conducting its own capital raising. Does the strategy sound familiar?  MBL has got a head start on the types of big international deals needed to boost EPS growth meaningfully.  MBL itself has good scope to grow internationally, to reach the heights of the very large overseas investment banking firms.

MBL is a more mature operation, and should provide a bit more 'safety' when markets turn down.  BNB, for instance, is proving more volatile, causing the sharper paring back of its price gains whenever the market adjusts.  When the investment banking markets eventually become less friendly to growth, this will challenge the ability of the smaller, less well-established players to produce strong EPS growth.


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## michael_selway

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				bug said:
			
		

> It could be hard to say who the actual EPS winner will be, based on which company gets the most deals and whether their markets go sour at all.
> 
> The smaller companies are coming off a numerically smaller growth base, while MBL is building more international scale to take advantage of bigger deals to boost its EPS. MBL should have the ability to do even more of what its smaller rival BNB is doing:
> BNB announced its latest earnings upgrade on Friday, after clinching its sizeable eircom takeover and socking away the related fees from the transaction.
> 
> BNB has started making noises about Australian investors not supporting its infrastructure fund (BBI), and that it will be setting up more international specialist funds and conducting its own capital raising. Does the strategy sound familiar?  MBL has got a head start on the types of big international deals needed to boost EPS growth meaningfully.  MBL itself has good scope to grow internationally, to reach the heights of the very large overseas investment banking firms.
> 
> MBL is a more mature operation, and should provide a bit more 'safety' when markets turn down.  BNB, for instance, is proving more volatile, causing the sharper paring back of its price gains whenever the market adjusts.  When the investment banking markets eventually become less friendly to growth, this will challenge the ability of the smaller, less well-established players to produce strong EPS growth.




Yeah saw the BNB upgrade



> 26 May 2006
> 
> Babcock & Brown Upgrade to 2006 EPS Growth Outlook
> 
> International investment and advisory firm Babcock & Brown (ASX: BNB) today announced that the 2006 interim result, to be released to the market on 24 August, is expected to report EPS growth in the order of 40%. Assuming interest in the investment opportunities presented by our specialised funds and asset management platform continues and there are no major market disruptions, we expect the strong momentum in the business at the present time to flow through to EPS growth of at least 35% for the full year. This revised full year guidance reflects an increase on the 20% EPS growth previously announced.




MBL is already too big (base is already too big) NPAT of about $900 Mil, BNB NPAT of about $180 mil. So an increase of 100 mil per annum to both is more favourable to BNB % wise?

Both have great potential imo.

thx

MS


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## bug

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

BNB seems to have the jump on MBL at the moment in any event. Since reaching its all time high of $78 on 30 September 2005, MBL has been up and down a lot in the $60's range.  It wasn't helped by providing guidance its full year profit would just be 'slightly up', and the +13% result was announced during a trading halt!

While MBL has been on the backfoot, BNB has been issuing upgrades and creating higher EPS expectations!  It's up to MBL to prove its international expansion strategy can accelerate it to the next level.


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## michael_selway

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				bug said:
			
		

> BNB seems to have the jump on MBL at the moment in any event. Since reaching its all time high of $78 on 30 September 2005, MBL has been up and down a lot in the $60's range.  It wasn't helped by providing guidance its full year profit would just be 'slightly up', and the +13% result was announced during a trading halt!
> 
> While MBL has been on the backfoot, BNB has been issuing upgrades and creating higher EPS expectations!  It's up to MBL to prove its international expansion strategy can accelerate it to the next level.




Updated forecasts

BNB - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 77.0 105.3 127.9 152.2 
DPS 23.0 32.0 41.2 47.8 

was before

BNB - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 77.0 95.0 116.1 138.2 
DPS 23.0 29.1 36.5 43.7 

whos next to upgrade (or downgrade)?

thx

MS


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## bug

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

BNB's PER is 24 vs MBL's 16.  That's a pretty big gap.

The conventional wisdom was that both companies would have similar PERs, as BNB's increased growth prospects would be offset by its greater balance sheet risk.

Yes, BNB is growing its EPS, but this isn't keeping at up all with the shares' excessive valuation.  BNB is overvalued, and the hype around it leaves it vulnerable to bad markets and bad news.  It got knocked around just recently by the last correction, before saving itself with an earnings upgrade.  In October last year, an independent report came out saying it was overvalued and only worth about $7, which knocked it down to $15 amid the broader market correction.

It's obvious the stock has its supporters, but they are paying for a slice of
something that is not yet there.  BNB's EPS growth is commendable, providing everything works on a best case scenario for it.

Part of the gap in PER's also seems to be due to MBL lagging below its  average historical PER.  MBL looks to be a sleeper, though, because 2007 is already off to a good start.  The big Dyno Nobel deal just missed the 2006 year, so it's a 'freebie' for 2007 earnings!!!


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				bug said:
			
		

> BNB's PER is 24 vs MBL's 16.  That's a pretty big gap.
> 
> The conventional wisdom was that both companies would have similar PERs, as BNB's increased growth prospects would be offset by its greater balance sheet risk.




You also need to look at Forward PE, as recently BNB had a profit upgrade



> Date: 9/6/2006
> Author: Robert Clow
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 26
> 
> The share price of Australian financial companies fell on 8 June 2006 while a merger sustained Record Investments. Macquarie Bank and Babcock & Brown have some dependence on a strong stock market to resell their assets. This caused Macquarie's share price to fall by $A2.80 to $A62.80, while Babcock's dropped by $A0.42 to $A19.89 in the weaker overall market. On 9 June, the shareholders of Record Investments will vote on its $A3 billion merger with Allco Finance. Allco is more dependent on global economic growth. Record's share price rose by $A0.03 to $A10.73


----------



## bug

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Huntley's is currently quoting PEs of 22 (BNB) versus 16.72 (MBL), taking forward earnings into account.  The gap stands (but a bit less!)

(Huntley's uses both forecast and historical EPS to give a more balanced P/E ratio than using either one alone. The current price is divided by the average of the last actual earnings per share figure and the projected EPS figure for the next year. The two figures are weighted based on the elapsed time between each period). Using outright Forward PE's still gives a good gap
between MBL and BNB.

MBL's global deal flow is starting to ramp up again bringing improving sentiment - It is head to head with Goldman Sachs with a $6.5B bid for Associated British Ports, will pick up more of Bristol and Sydney Airports as part of the successful Ferrovial takeover of BAA, and made a $570M purchase of the leading US, Canada and UK air pressure vending operator.  Today's Australian Financial Review reports Macquarie topped the Mergers and Acquisitions league table. Macquarie is going from strength to strength.  It is smaller in global terms against the giants, but can still give the likes of Goldman Sachs and UBS a run for their money.  It is the largest non-government owner of infrastructure in the world, but has massive future growth potential on the world stage. The size of the company in the Australian context, or comparisons to BNB and others, are not a fair representation of its major global growth prospects. Macquarie's day has just begun.


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				bug said:
			
		

> Huntley's is currently quoting PEs of 22 (BNB) versus 16.72 (MBL), taking forward earnings into account.  The gap stands (but a bit less!)
> QUOTE]
> 
> Thats only fwd 2006 EPS, u need to look at aleast 3 yrs forward EPS, maybe more.
> 
> *MBL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> EPS 382.3 440.2 471.2 473.5
> DPS 215.0 250.0 267.5 281.0 *
> 
> EPS(c) PE Growth
> Year Ending 30-03-07 440.2 15.0 15.1%
> Year Ending 30-03-08 471.2 14.0 7.0%
> 
> *BNB - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> EPS 77.0 105.3 127.9 152.2
> DPS 23.0 32.0 39.1 47.9 *
> 
> EPS(c) PE Growth
> Year Ending 30-12-06 105.3 18.8 36.8%
> Year Ending 30-12-07 127.9 15.5 21.5%
> 
> So
> 
> MBL 2009 Fwd PE = 66/4.735 = 13.94
> BNB 2008 Fwd PE = 19.81/1.522 = 13.02
> 
> So BNB appears cheaper as time goes by, but what about 2010 2011 EPS? It appears MBL is "slowing" % wise in growth pa as currently forecasted? Also BNB recently had an EPS upgrade from 20%pa to now 36.8% this yr, so there may be more suprises to come in the future? What about MBL?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS


----------



## Chief Wigam

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Good commentary and thanks for the info.

I am hoping to hear what people think of Macquarie's investment companies such as MCQ and MCG? MCQ has done poorly since it floated. Do they generally come back with time? They claim to offer capital growth but there's certainly been none with MCQ.  :dunno:


----------



## scsl

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I've held MCQ since the IPO in April 2005 and having recently paid for the second instalment, am disappointed with its performance and have been thinking of selling but am just not sure as CW said of whether they can "come back with time"...

MCQ have made significant acquisitions such as the European Directories business and Red Bee Media but its share price is down 15.2% from April 2005. Its investments are in sectors with "strong growth potential and high barriers to entry" but it has failed to find serious buyers. Is it because of a lack of positive analyst coverage/institutional buyers?

Even an announcement on Friday that an MCQ led consortium had acqured the world's largest owner and operator of vehicle tyre inflation equipment in ASI Holding Corp failed to excite the market, with its shares up just 0.30%. What is going on??

With this acquisition, MCQ has now fully invested the proceeds from the IPO. Will this somehow affect its trading pattern or will the market wait for its annual results?

I read that Macquarie offshoots could be performing better if MBL weren't reaping all those continual performance/management fees and feel as though it would be wiser in the long run to switch over to MBL shares. Any thoughts?

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I agree with the management/performance fee issue. The millionsairre's club, soon to probably be billionairre's club are might be seen to be milking it for a little bit more than they should. Although, I'm not too sure how much is 'management' and how much is 'performance'. Perhaps they need to lift the performance part and they might try harder to get more value out of them! 

In general though, I think managed investments like MAP, MIG etc have performed ordinary in the past year because everyone is jumping on commodities for the 'growth' cycle. Airports and tollroads just aren't very sexy and aren't going to announce a new massive discovery or farm in by RIO.


----------



## BlueTrader

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I agree that the commodities cycle may be drawing attention from industrial stocks. Also, Macquarie's and Babcock's infrastructure fund share prices have been lagging given the global interest rate scares.  The leveraging used within the infrastructure funds would be disadvantaged by higher interest rates and inflation, but offsetting factors include toll road revenue increasing with CPI and the long period leveraging occurs over.  Maquarie and BNB have a lot of fingers in a lot of pies, which gives them plenty of room to move. I would expect Macquarie will bring out a ports infrastructure fund if they successfully bid for Associated British Ports, given they already have the Isle of Man Steam Packet Company and Chinese ports.

Comparing MBL and BNB's EPS and PE's is a bit tricky, because a lot of their success really depends upon the deals they can each land. I find using forward/'blue sky' PEs over longer periods produces unclear results in the case of investment banking shares like MBL and BNB.  Markets go sour and earnings don't eventuate in the event of a major downturn. These cyclical companies depend upon buoyant equity markets to produce their earnings, which forward PEs cannot predict will continue.


----------



## scsl

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

one of the longest lists i've ever seen. i'll give you a clue... MBL's assets.

http://www.crikey.com.au/articles/2006/05/16-1152-1641.html

also, stephen mayne, founder of ezine Crickey, is running for the MBL board. why? so he can stop the things that he sets out in the article below from ocurring again, which can be seen as a form of insider trading.

http://www.crikey.com.au/articles/2006/06/30-1533-9058.html

cheers,
scsl


----------



## blinkau

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

What does everyone think of MBL at the moment? Im deciding if I should pickup some (for the share game) but is interest rates going to have a negative effect on them?


----------



## bug

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Over the last ten months, MBL has been up and down a few times between $60 and $70.  It's at the lower end of this range yet again and presents historically favourable value.  It's price earnings ratio is a historically low 15 and it's expected to break the $1 Billion mark for the first time in its full year result (year ended March 2007).  A fully franked dividend of 3.8% has appeal.

MBL has a good international growth story happening beyond its disappointing short term price movements. For a buyer the chance to get MBL close to $60 is just a good opportunity.

Interest rate rises generally hurt the share market, including financial stocks.  MBL, like other financial stocks feels an effect because rising rates usually crimp the liquidity of the markets they do business in.  However, financial institutions can also improve their margins through higher interest rates.

-------------------
Doing your own research is recommended when deciding whether to buy or sell individual shares.


----------



## pacer

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Got in cheap this morning....wadda y recon?....all red otherwise.......3000cfd 1 week max


----------



## Sean K

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

7 brokers I follow have it as buy/outperform with an average $84 target. Wavering between $60 and $70, so every chance it'll be back at $70 some time soon for a quick few bucks. MACD just positively crossed so on the way up. For the moment.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

There you go Pacer. Might be a good play mate.

In the Australian:

*MacBank heading to $70*
September 21, 2006
ANALYSTS believe Macquarie Bank shares are likely to return to the $70 mark after it bumped up its first-half profit guidance.......


----------



## bowser

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

What price are you targeting Pacer? I agree with Kennas... $70 looks to be achievable in the short-term. Holding out for more through sept\oct could be a bit risky though.


----------



## pacer

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I recon this could be a bigger than expected run.....me thinks $ 90 is acchievable with the mining stocks looking weaker, but it may take a little while.

I read somewhere that $120 was a target price....might have been the ferret, but that was a while ago. Whatever, it's looking Awesome and as of now is 3.2% up....went long CFD 3000MBL and am real happy with today's result, can afford another holiday till the next bit of good/bad news hits a company. 

They dont call it the '*Millionaires Factory*' for nothing!

I was actualy on a bender with my mates all night till 7.30 in the morning, playing poker, and watched the early news saying they expect 40% increase in profits.....I always make plays on stuff that hits the TV as that has the biggest impact on a share....AWB was another nice short I made big $ on, among others.

I will hold for a bit and see where it goes...up I expect....cant see any downside.


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> I recon this could be a bigger than expected run.....me thinks $ 90 is acchievable with the mining stocks looking weaker, but it may take a little while.
> 
> I read somewhere that $120 was a target price....might have been the ferret, but that was a while ago. Whatever, it's looking Awesome and as of now is 3.2% up....went long CFD 3000MBL and am real happy with today's result, can afford another holiday till the next bit of good/bad news hits a company.
> 
> They dont call it the '*Millionaires Factory*' for nothing!
> 
> I was actualy on a bender with my mates all night till 7.30 in the morning, playing poker, and watched the early news saying they expect 40% increase in profits.....I always make plays on stuff that hits the TV as that has the biggest impact on a share....AWB was another nice short I made big $ on, among others.
> 
> I will hold for a bit and see where it goes...up I expect....cant see any downside.




Well all the brokers do have high price targets

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 382.3 464.7 471.2 481.3 
DPS 215.0 250.0 268.0 294.5 

ill post the updated forecasts soon

thx 

MS

---------------

MBL MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED    Overnight Price: $64.51 
ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy - The broker notes management''s update of likely 20% earnings growth for the half year is in line with its forecast, so there is no change to its estimates. These estimates are at the top of the market range currently. 
Valuation is $82.00. 


Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$17.49 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy - Management has guided to a least 20% increase in profit (ex-MGQ) for 1H07 leading the broker to upgrade earnings by 5% in FY07 and 4% in FY08. 

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$15.49 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight - The 40% (incl MGQ) update to earnings has actually led the broker to adjust forecasts down slightly as they were ahead of the market. This includes taking into account that history suggests 40% means 50%. 

Target price is $95.84 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$31.33 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AddedMerrill Lynch rates the stock as Buy, Medium Risk - Having recently moved to Buy and upgaded earnings increased guidance has not led to further changes, although the broker notes guidance is now slightly ahead of forecasts. 

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$6.49 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SB Citigroup rates the stock as Buy , High Risk - The broker notes earnings guidance from management implies a result higher than it had expected, causing it to lift its earnings forecast for FY07 by 2% to 502.9c. 
It expects this update and likely announcements on asset sales should be enough to renew market interest in the stock. 



Target price is $86.00 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$21.49 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the SB Citigroup target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


----------



## pacer

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

All good on the home front then.....keep up the good work Mike...a graphists view would add to my confidece....I'm pretty baisic on that side of things...but I do have a general understanding...the news pays as good as going to a $3000 course...tv news, and your posts have kept me off the dole/benefits.....make more than I ever did in the mines....ruined my back a few years ago...but refuse to bow down and bludge off the government...to bloody proud......do a few deals an wheels here and there ''''''wheels'n'deals''''' and this keep me entertained.
*
LUV YOU ALL FOR THIS SITE**    Can't imagine where I' be  without you all!!!!!!!*


----------



## bowser

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> do a few deals an wheels here and there ''''''wheels'n'deals''''' and this keep me entertained.
> *
> LUV YOU ALL FOR THIS SITE**    Can't imagine where I' be  without you all!!!!!!!*





Pacer, you sound like Arthur Daley... "Its a nice 'lil earner"

The charts seem to say if price holds above $70, and overall market conditions are positive the price targets might be reached ($80-90).. If the US has a sell off in the next month however a reversal would be more likely.


----------



## pacer

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Bowser you are right on the button....OI 'ave turned ita a bit orv aain ARFUR!

Most of what I do is a little more legal though....buy stuff *REAL CHEAP* and pass it on to others who want it, at a higher price, doing well with getting computers and stuff from the auctions and floggin' it to the punters, an the odd mota too!........CFD's are a great tool, and was real surprised to see I could sell high then buy back low.....what a scam.....most punters I tell about CFD's can't understand the concept, an' recon I'm pullin' an Arfur......well they're all listening a bit more to me now!.....I just bide my time an' hit the big scores.....usualy try to go short or take two positions at once....one long and one short of equal value  to make sure I don't get caught out on a bad day....that is my Number one rule....but rules are made to be broken....If it is a real good play then I'll break rule#1.

Always look on the bright side of life....Monty Python...

Looking back on my time in the mining game, I can honestly say I was wasting my talents....I'm an Arfur at heart...but it has given me a better insight to how a minerals/oil company will perform, and the odd good tip from a mate.....my flatmate just went up north on a drilling rig, and have a few other mates still in the mining/oil industry......see what I mean?

Ok Guv ..... MBL up a little again today.....set stop loss at $500 profit.....wierd way to set one but that's my system, and raise it as it rises....play a little online poker too.

Keep, up the good work....you punters are my living.....Know wot I mean!


----------



## bowser

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Nothing wrong with a 'lil bit of Arthur, long been a fan. I lived around the corner from where they shot the Winchester Club. Had to laugh every morning I walked past. Dont know about VAT's though 

Next week will be interesting for MBL. Held up nicely on a bad day.


----------



## pacer

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Hey...any one using the chat button?...I hardly eva see anyone there!
are there any specific times they chat,,,awesome look to it! and would  luv an online chat to someone!


----------



## pacer

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Slow but steady ...now...waitin til tomorrow...still up from last week ,,,wiaiting for a turn....TLS down tgain...pooooooooo


----------



## pacer

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Slowwwww.....but up soon?


----------



## nelly

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Pacer check your messages....


----------



## pacer

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Hoping MBL will crack the $70 mark for a decent run up to new highs....preferrably today or I may bail out, as cfd interest will eat up profits already achieved.

Possible with the US posting a bit of confidence this week.

Wish me luck.


----------



## Warren Buffet II

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> Hoping MBL will crack the $70 mark.




Hi Pacer,

I do not think that MBL will break the $70 mark anytime soon, I can be wrong but I do not see any strong signs that they can be worth more than $70 at this point.

I have a problem with MBL and is that they are always trying to influence the market in one way or another and people are understanding now how they do that and how ridiculous high their fees are, so based on that is $70 a real worth value?

Just me 

WBII


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Hi Pacer,
> 
> I do not think that MBL will break the $70 mark anytime soon, I can be wrong but I do not see any strong signs that they can be worth more than $70 at this point.
> 
> I have a problem with MBL and is that they are always trying to influence the market in one way or another and people are understanding now how they do that and how ridiculous high their fees are, so based on that is $70 a real worth value?
> 
> Just me
> 
> WBII




Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 382.3 477.4 473.3 510.5 
DPS 215.0 259.0 278.5 296.0 

thx

MS


----------



## Warren Buffet II

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> EPS 382.3 477.4 473.3 510.5
> DPS 215.0 259.0 278.5 296.0
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Hi MS,

EPS and DPS are forecast information and as such can vary in the short/long run, but some people like to forecast with the forecast. Interesting is that DPS is based on EPS and with the values that you give us you keep changing the payout ratio, is there any reason for that?.

Anyway, I said MBL might not be worth $70 and you are saying based on the EPS and DPS forecast it is worth $70, so just for my curiosity how much is worth for you based on that?

Thanks

WBII


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Hi MS,
> 
> EPS and DPS are forecast information and as such can vary in the short/long run, but some people like to forecast with the forecast. Interesting is that DPS is based on EPS and with the values that you give us you keep changing the payout ratio, is there any reason for that?.
> 
> Anyway, I said MBL might not be worth $70 and you are saying based on the EPS and DPS forecast it is worth $70, so just for my curiosity how much is worth for you based on that?
> 
> Thanks
> 
> WBII




Hi payout ratio, not sure whay its changes but its ok, not too excessive or too low

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 382.3 477.4 473.3 510.5 
DPS 215.0 259.0 278.5 296.0 

Well Forward Terminal PE of 10. But 2009 doesnt look Terminal! ie more growth to come likely, so cant say, but above $50 so maybe $60 atm I value it

thx

MS


----------



## pacer

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Sold MBL at $69.60 the other day, purely because it was slowing on it's climb....down today so am happy with the profits... up $5 from purchase on 3000 CFD's.....another holiday till a new play comes along.

Thanks for your posts, I may have held on to go above $70 otherwise, if it does though, and goes above previous highs I may have another look.


----------



## swingstar

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

In response to barney in another thread... MBL is currently near a very important area of resistance ($7.50). It's fallen a minimum of 7% from here four times in the last year. 

To me, right now, it looks as though it's running out of steam, and I wouldn't be surprised if it fell again. In fact I think it's setting up for a good short play.


----------



## barney

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Congratulations Paceman, I'm glad you did well out of MBL (that rhymes, but hey... I'm a muso!!) 

I agree SS, but at the same time I kinda get the feeling that MBL may have a little more fight left in it, but that would/could be determined by the Oz stock market trend in general...... today says you are right, but next couple of days will tell a better story .......... I don't hold MBL, but  a friend of mine does, and for him I hope it bounces a little higher,   Cheers, Barney.


----------



## pacer

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

FINALY LOOKED BACK ON IT...DAMN!

MISSED THE RISE! BREAKIN ALL PREVIOUS HIGHS.....see my post on RIO today......never look back...there's other plays to make.....

The bulls are rushing.....expecting big gains from next week on then a massive fall a week or two before xmas....DYOR....lol


----------



## mrWoodo

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Money Flow declining, share price still rising - I think this is going to be a big fall.


----------



## swingstar

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Looks like you may be right mrWoodo. It's about time too--I've been bearish on MBL for weeks. Hopefully we'll see volume pick up today.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I'm not sure how MBL will hold up during any economic weakness, like US recession, but it gets pretty well rated around the traps. In Lonsec's 'model portfolio', and the following brokers seem to think it's a goer:

JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight
November 23 2006
The QAN deal adds substance to the rumours that MBL has a whole raft of "super-transactions" in the pipeline, that may even include TLS. the broker is not valuing any of this in, but notes there is upside yet. Target rises from $97.73 to $102.28.

Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Buy, Medium Risk
November 15 2006
As usual, MBL has delivered a result ahead of guidance, and also 8% ahead of the broker (12% ahead on revenue growth, which the broker sees as a highlight). The composition was good, although costs were up, and the broker sees increasing staff remuneration as an issue. 

UBS rates the stock as Buy 2
November 15 2006
A solid but lumpy result, the broker suggests, although core trends confirm a trajectory of 20% growth. MBL is difficlt to value, says the broker, given its "private equity" component of business. However, target rises from $82.50 to $85.00.

ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy
November 15 2006
Target $84.00 (was $82.00). The company reported a profit of $638m, the result leading the broker to lift its full year forecast by 3% to $1,216m. It also notes the bank's plans to establish a non-operating holding company make sense as transactions will then not be subject to

Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
November 15 2006
Target $88.00 (was $85.00). Headline profit of $730m was 6% above the broker's forecast thanks to the size of asset disposals in the period. The result has led the broker to lift its forecasts, with its profit estimates increasing in FY07 by 3.4% to $1,297m, in FY08 by 7.4% to

JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight
November 15 2006
An above-consensus result has led the broker to increase earnings by 5.4% in FY07 although no later changes have been made as operational earnings will be met with a higher tax rate. On a "vanilla" investment bank basis, the broker has increased the target from $97.73 to $102.

SB Citigroup rates the stock as Buy , High Risk
November 15 2006
Target $90.00 (was $86.00). The broker notes profit was about 6% higher than it had anticipated, with most divisions contributing to the result. Following the result the broker has lifted its forecasts in FY07 by 3.7% to $1,343m, in FY08 by 6.1% to $1,479m and in and FY09 by 5

Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy
November 15 2006
A solid result ahead of the broker, with subdued guidance as usual that will likely be exceeded. The broker is not, however, pleased about the increase in the staff compensation ratio, although this will provide upside if it reverts once more. Target increased from $80 to $85.

GS JB Were rates the stock as Marketperform, L/T Hold
November 15 2006
Profit of $730m was above the broker's forecast, leading it to lift its forecasts for FY07 by 3.6% to 517.1c and in FY08 by the same percentage to 483.5c. Despite this the broker suggests the deteriorating quality of the earnings is likely to result in a P/E de-rating, though

Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
November 13 2006
The broker is forecasting a profit result of $686m and a dividend of $1.01. It sees strong growth in revenues as likely but a weaker outcome in terms of equity accounting income, funds management performance fees and commodities trading. The broker's forecasts include a lik 

Chart wise, was halted at the obvious all time high resistance and also some trend resistance, and now heading back to what should be pretty good support around $70-71. Will find more support at $65. We're due for a correction, so it could well possibly find it's way back there, supported by any US weakness. Santa rally still in train though so........


----------



## spitrader1

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I'm not sure how MBL will hold up during any economic weakness, like US recession, but it gets pretty well rated around the traps. In Lonsec's 'model portfolio', and the following brokers seem to think it's a goer:
> 
> JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight
> November 23 2006
> The QAN deal adds substance to the rumours that MBL has a whole raft of "super-transactions" in the pipeline, that may even include TLS. the broker is not valuing any of this in, but notes there is upside yet. Target rises from $97.73 to $102.28.
> 
> Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Buy, Medium Risk
> November 15 2006
> As usual, MBL has delivered a result ahead of guidance, and also 8% ahead of the broker (12% ahead on revenue growth, which the broker sees as a highlight). The composition was good, although costs were up, and the broker sees increasing staff remuneration as an issue.
> 
> UBS rates the stock as Buy 2
> November 15 2006
> A solid but lumpy result, the broker suggests, although core trends confirm a trajectory of 20% growth. MBL is difficlt to value, says the broker, given its "private equity" component of business. However, target rises from $82.50 to $85.00.
> 
> ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy
> November 15 2006
> Target $84.00 (was $82.00). The company reported a profit of $638m, the result leading the broker to lift its full year forecast by 3% to $1,216m. It also notes the bank's plans to establish a non-operating holding company make sense as transactions will then not be subject to
> 
> Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
> November 15 2006
> Target $88.00 (was $85.00). Headline profit of $730m was 6% above the broker's forecast thanks to the size of asset disposals in the period. The result has led the broker to lift its forecasts, with its profit estimates increasing in FY07 by 3.4% to $1,297m, in FY08 by 7.4% to
> 
> JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight
> November 15 2006
> An above-consensus result has led the broker to increase earnings by 5.4% in FY07 although no later changes have been made as operational earnings will be met with a higher tax rate. On a "vanilla" investment bank basis, the broker has increased the target from $97.73 to $102.
> 
> SB Citigroup rates the stock as Buy , High Risk
> November 15 2006
> Target $90.00 (was $86.00). The broker notes profit was about 6% higher than it had anticipated, with most divisions contributing to the result. Following the result the broker has lifted its forecasts in FY07 by 3.7% to $1,343m, in FY08 by 6.1% to $1,479m and in and FY09 by 5
> 
> Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy
> November 15 2006
> A solid result ahead of the broker, with subdued guidance as usual that will likely be exceeded. The broker is not, however, pleased about the increase in the staff compensation ratio, although this will provide upside if it reverts once more. Target increased from $80 to $85.
> 
> GS JB Were rates the stock as Marketperform, L/T Hold
> November 15 2006
> Profit of $730m was above the broker's forecast, leading it to lift its forecasts for FY07 by 3.6% to 517.1c and in FY08 by the same percentage to 483.5c. Despite this the broker suggests the deteriorating quality of the earnings is likely to result in a P/E de-rating, though
> 
> Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
> November 13 2006
> The broker is forecasting a profit result of $686m and a dividend of $1.01. It sees strong growth in revenues as likely but a weaker outcome in terms of equity accounting income, funds management performance fees and commodities trading. The broker's forecasts include a lik
> 
> Chart wise, was halted at the obvious all time high resistance and also some trend resistance, and now heading back to what should be pretty good support around $70-71. Will find more support at $65. We're due for a correction, so it could well possibly find it's way back there, supported by any US weakness. Santa rally still in train though so........



kennas as always, you are a credit to ASF


----------



## Sean K

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Bounced off $71.00 ish as was anticipated. Now back up to $73.00. These support and resistance lines really are a good guide to where stocks could bounce or be stopped when used in conjunction with other market factors.


----------



## visual

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Does any body know why macquarie isn`t trading today,is it on a trading halt but etrade failed to show it?Thanks.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				visual said:
			
		

> Does any body know why macquarie isn`t trading today,is it on a trading halt but etrade failed to show it?Thanks.




  Not sure if it is the reason but I hear that QAN has rejected the T/O..


----------



## visual

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Thanks Kaury,
it doesn`t explain the non trading though,or does it?
The buyers seem to be wanting to pay a higher price than the sellers but still no sales and no announcement of a trading halt.

Having said all that ,looks like it`s now trading,wonder what happened to all the 78 dollars offers,hmmmm


----------



## pacer

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Anyone think this is a short?.....hittin resistance, low vol, MACD crossing......possible double top about to occour with second top being lower......

What do you think?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

this is another short term winner 

after the little sell off god it came back still holding now wonder how far into record territory it can push!


----------



## CanOz

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				pacer said:
			
		

> Anyone think this is a short?.....hittin resistance, low vol, MACD crossing......possible double top about to occour with second top being lower......
> 
> What do you think?




I'd bet it short for the week after next. Might have a little left in the tank yet.  

Cheers,


----------



## Halba

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

remember mbl going up a buck is only 1%. please don't think its a short after going up a percent!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> remember mbl going up a buck is only 1%. please don't think its a short after going up a percent!




I'm waiting for the big correction this year to get into Macquarie.    Garpal


----------



## Halba

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

hmmmmm mbl will have a good yr as it didn't have a great 2 past yrs

this is going higher buddy


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

What happened yesterday?

Company report caused sell off or just nerves?


----------



## barnz2k

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

damn, looks like the fall might continue..
and today currently at $77.570
down almost $10 from a week ago.. its hit that 10% mentioned..


----------



## reece55

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Any opinions here on MBL....

Bit of a recovery here today, but I sense it was the bargain hunters coming in.... I am looking for about sub $76 as the next target, which is the next identifiable support level.... The house of cards appears to have a dent in it's chest since the mini correction........

Cheers


----------



## Mofra

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



			
				Garpal Gumnut said:
			
		

> I'm waiting for the big correction this year to get into Macquarie.    Garpal



Just out of interest, how are you determining your entry target and is this chart or fundamentally based?


----------



## reece55

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Well, MBL has had an interesting couple of weeks since the major pullback...

What interests me is that there appears to be no buying pressure in the stock..... The last couple of days has seen the stock open at least a 1% higher and then gradually sold off throughout the day. Additionally, volume is way way down.....

Still think we will be seeing that $76 shortly...

Cheers


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Up over $87 today record highs, no announcements, why????????


----------



## barnz2k

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Almost cracked the $90 mark!!so close, $89.95
Should have got more shares when I had the chance haha


----------



## Prospector

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

The other night on ABC they said that there was a race between CSL and MBL as to which was going to crack the $100 first.  Both are going gang busters at the moment and I am pleased to say I picked them both up when they were in the $30 region!


----------



## Halba

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Prospector said:


> The other night on ABC they said that there was a race between CSL and MBL as to which was going to crack the $100 first.  Both are going gang busters at the moment and I am pleased to say I picked them both up when they were in the $30 region!




Any ann./reasons for the increase?


----------



## mickqld

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Halba said:


> Any ann./reasons for the increase?





There is market speculation that MBL is making a takeover play for Tabcorp. I'd say that is the main reason.


----------



## barnz2k

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

And we're over!
90.25



Prospector said:


> The other night on ABC they said that there was a race between CSL and MBL as to which was going to crack the $100 first.  Both are going gang busters at the moment and I am pleased to say I picked them both up when they were in the $30 region!




*travelles back in time sells soul to invest in MBL*

Nice work man. I got in just after that 5% drop, if only id had more cash to play with and actually knew what i was doing.. haha

gotta love hindsight.


----------



## Struzball

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070514/pdf/312g24m700q90t.pdf

Trading halt because of a significant announcement about capital raising.  Good thing?


----------



## barnz2k

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

MBL is going ballistic!

Trading halt for 1.5 days for allocation of new shares i think at $87 - too bad I missed it!

currently at a whopping $96!

recon its gonna crack the $100 mark or will it drop down after the trading has eased off?


----------



## Struzball

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



barnz2k said:


> recon its gonna crack the $100 mark or will it drop down after the trading has eased off?




Hope so, $96.70 atm, craziness!  I think we just want somethign to go up to $100 and it'll just drop back again once people realise it won't make it/isn't worth it (ie RIO)


----------



## barnz2k

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

High of 98.640!
Go baby go!

An aussie stock has never hit 100 before right??

Almost 2million in volume - does that mean 2million shares have traded today?

Wouldnt this be a huge number for mbl considering its price?


----------



## scsl

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



barnz2k said:


> High of 98.640!
> Go baby go!
> 
> An aussie stock has never hit 100 before right??
> 
> Almost 2million in volume - does that mean 2million shares have traded today?
> 
> Wouldnt this be a huge number for mbl considering its price?



Poseidon hit $280 in the 1970s, though that was on the back of the nickel boom.

Today's volume (shares traded) of nearly 2 million is large, considering its price, but you should look at this number relative to the average trading volume of MBL, which I'd say is just under 1 million in the past six months. This is just an estimate from looking at the graph. To answer your question, today's volume is quite substantial, especially when you factor in it's price. 

Cheers,
scsl


----------



## The Barbarian Investor

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Why the retreat of late?

Trading around $89.95 _ATM_ not sure where its going to find support but its certainly getting some interest from buyers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

The House of Macquarie - The House Of Cards?

*Enron Prophet of Doom, Jim Chanos, Down on Macquarie Bank*

Jim Chanos has Macquarie Bank (ASX: MBL) in his sights. Uh oh.You may not know Chanos. But he's sort of infamous on Wall Street. And when he talks about stocks he hates, people listen.


http://www.sharecafe.com.au/dreck.asp?a=AV&ai=4647


Macquarie Bank Chief Says Assets Have “Really Special Value”


----------



## Julia

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Let's not overlook the fact that it is decidedly in Mr Chanos' interests to talk down MBL since he regards it as a short.  It's interesting that he has come out with this pronouncement when the stock has been running at or close to an all time high.  Good time for him to short it, while he runs around the world getting publicity everywhere for the notion that it's all about to fall over.

He could be right.


However, he could also just be seeking his own personal advantage.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Julia said:


> Let's not overlook the fact that it is decidedly in Mr Chanos' interests to talk down MBL since he regards it as a short.  It's interesting that he has come out with this pronouncement when the stock has been running at or close to an all time high.  Good time for him to short it, while he runs around the world getting publicity everywhere for the notion that it's all about to fall over.
> 
> He could be right.
> 
> 
> However, he could also just be seeking his own personal advantage.





Hard to say with MBL I take the great short call as very suss, you raised a very good point about his comment coming around all time highs good timing or calculated?

that last rally was very speculation driven and not to see it fall down so fast with many caught out fast trying to save whatever they could.

just my thoughts


----------



## reece55

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Uncle Festivus said:


> The House of Macquarie - The House Of Cards?
> 
> *Enron Prophet of Doom, Jim Chanos, Down on Macquarie Bank*
> 
> Jim Chanos has Macquarie Bank (ASX: MBL) in his sights. Uh oh.You may not know Chanos. But he's sort of infamous on Wall Street. And when he talks about stocks he hates, people listen.
> 
> 
> http://www.sharecafe.com.au/dreck.asp?a=AV&ai=4647
> 
> 
> Macquarie Bank Chief Says Assets Have “Really Special Value”




Uncle
I also note that Packer has recently divested his stake in MBL, and prior to the sale he was up in the top 15 holders. 

The reality is that their accounts (and unlike most, I actually read them cover to cover) are the most complicated and the most subject to subjective accounting treatment of any of have seen on our exchange. Basically, I wouldn't trust the profit figure they report to the market - so many critical assumptions are made in them it's just ridiculous....

Openly, I lost money shorting this stock back @ $80.00, but closed out for some short term pain (learnt not to short a stock in a heavy uptrend the hard way) - but really guys, this one is to the ASX what Enron was Wall Street back not so long ago. No one questions there business model (which fundamentally is like placing a super heavy base on a flimsy foundation) because they just keep recording record profits, but what are these profits built on? MBL does well because our accounting standards allow them to cheat! Their satellite funds are just an excuse to write themselves bonuses, because the cash flies out each of the doors so quickly you don't know what's going on. And they have an insatiable appetite for doing a deal no matter what the cost in a highly liquid cash filled environment. I mean they value their funds based on EBITDA and illustrate % of gearing on EV - what an absolute crock!

Each to their own, but at this stage in the market, I will not touch MBL short or long. Granted, I will miss out on opportunities, but so be it - it's only one stock in the ASX 200!!!!

Cheers
Reece


----------



## barnz2k

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I was tempted to sell just under the 100 mark cause I figured it would drop back - but not this harsh!
But if I had i would get hit with the 50% rate cause Ive only had it a few months, but if I wait a year and it gets back to say 93 or something Ill still be up than selling higher with higher rate.. right?


----------



## Mofra

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



reece55 said:


> The reality is that their accounts (and unlike most, I actually read them cover to cover) are the most complicated and the most subject to subjective accounting treatment of any of have seen on our exchange. Basically, I wouldn't trust the profit figure they report to the market - so many critical assumptions are made in them it's just ridiculous....



The reports for MAP alone are interesting enough reading - 2 years ago I baulked at buying MAP because it appeared management fees are drawn on the value of asset increase as well as the cashflows from the assets held.

MBL is an extremely hard stock to value because identifying what is cashflow & what is an asset revaluation (and the subsequent management fee drawn from it) is very difficult without, are Reece has alluded to, reading all the reports from every arm of the business (and Macquarie if run exactly like that: 6 seperate businesses).

I would suspect many hold due to the strength of the management team which is one thing I do believe strongly; Macquarie is extremely well managed and lead, and culturally is like almost no other company in the country.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

MBL,

Long and medium term strong up trend.

Short term.

MBL was sold down to 86.46 lowest point it reached so far.

I see support found at 87.12 still under its negative 45degree angle but has not been pushed down to trend line from aug break out.

I am looking to open longs on MBL with stops under support. futher confrimation of support could be seen in 1 more test.

currently it looks like the market has decided this is a fair value for MBL.


----------



## Captain_Chaza

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

You'l know if she's the next Enron if she fails to keep above $84
If she fails to hold up above this level
"Run for Shelter"

Don't expect any help from your usually fair to average  technical support in these times
As was the case/times  of Enron Lots of markets were mysteriously blacked out

So much for  Highly-Geared / Leveraged investments I guess?
Only time will tell!

Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## Mofra

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Captain_Chaza said:


> So much for  Highly-Geared / Leveraged investments I guess?
> Only time will tell!



Macquarie are sitting on a massive pile of cash having just completed placements, they also have active treasuries in many countries so funds are not a problem. 

As much as profits could be hurt (just like any fundie) by some softness in world markets, I'm certainly not expecting a major Enron/HIH like decline.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Captain,

Mac bank was highly over priced that's why it was sold down.

Look's like the market has decided on a fair value for the stock anything that rises in a unnatural angle will come back down to it's true range after time that is one of the basics of supply and demand.

Mac has found support above it's Trend line and after a little more confrontation, I will look to go long.

84 is a break of it's trend so that would suggest more downside.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

took a CFD long on MBL today.

Found support on its trend line bounced off with very strong volume and broke out of its minor resistance.

lets see how it moves.


----------



## barnz2k

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Drop in over 5% from yesterdays close, and Volume is a HUGE 6,516,767.

Whats going on? mass sell offs??

EDIT: ahh - NOTICE OF CHANGE OF INTEREST OF SUBSTANTIAL HOLDER


----------



## Awesomandy

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

At an educated guess, I think they would have quite a bit of exposure in US subprime mortgague as well, so it's not too suprising that they've lost about 5% today.


----------



## mime

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

The stock price on Monday is nearly certain to tumble. I think I'll probably pick some up soon as it's looking very under valued.


----------



## Bushman

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



mime said:


> The stock price on Monday is nearly certain to tumble. I think I'll probably pick some up soon as it's looking very under valued.




Share price is following what is happening to 'buy out' firms in the States.

Quote from an article in The Age:

'Among the hardest-hit stocks was one of the buy-out firms that had gone public. Shares of the Fortress Investment Group dropped more than 6 per cent, to $US19.31.' 

Just using this as an example, not saying it will fall 6%. Seeing it has already fallen 5% on Friday, I would not think it would fall another 5% on Monday. That would be quite a correction.

Just a word of caution for Monday.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



mime said:


> The stock price on Monday is nearly certain to tumble. I think I'll probably pick some up soon as it's looking very under valued.




What value have you worked out for them? I'm sure a few analysts would like to know your method.


----------



## justjohn

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



mime said:


> The stock price on Monday is nearly certain to tumble. I think I'll probably pick some up soon as it's looking very under valued.




I think MBL wont be the only stock under value on Monday:there will be plenty of others up for grabs


----------



## reece55

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Uncle Festivus said:


> What value have you worked out for them? I'm sure a few analysts would like to know your method.




I'm with UF here mime, picking a bottom here for MBL could cost you many pennies.

You have to remember what MBL does - it has a very large inventory of held for sale assets (i.e. investments in businesses) that it looks to flog/recycle through M&A and public floats. Due to the re-pricing of risk that has taken place, it is going to be a whole lot harder for MBL to flog these to the market in the near future. Add to that a bulk of their revenue has come from deal making - do you think the level of deals they processed last year compared to the year coming is bigger or smaller?

MBL is a big no no ATM - but this is just my opinion....

Cheers
Reece


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



reece55 said:


> I'm with UF here mime, picking a bottom here for MBL could cost you many pennies.
> 
> You have to remember what MBL does - it has a very large inventory of held for sale assets (i.e. investments in businesses) that it looks to flog/recycle through M&A and public floats. Due to the re-pricing of risk that has taken place, it is going to be a whole lot harder for MBL to flog these to the market in the near future. Add to that a bulk of their revenue has come from deal making - do you think the level of deals they processed last year compared to the year coming is bigger or smaller?
> 
> MBL is a big no no ATM - but this is just my opinion....
> 
> Cheers
> Reece




Hey Reece hope you were cash or close to it when the selling really got going.

I agree with Reece and UF,

MBL and the other main players anything in top 5 in value normaly take it the hearest MBL RIO really took a beating last week rio shead 10$ in the blink of an eye. the current trend in MBL on the short term is negative, I would stay far away from it but dont stop watching it!


----------



## waz

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Having a look at what happened to MBL style banks in America, they didnt fare too badly.
Morgan Stanly down a bit, Merryl Lynch, went up in after hours trade, and Goldman Sachs only down about 0.5%. GS are launching some $20bil fund to invest in debt, previously expected to be only worth $12bil

The only investment banking style company to do badly was Lazard, down 3.42%

Considering MBL was around 89.50 before the big sell off, which i think was pretty low to begin with. I struggle to see why it should drop by more than 10%.
Its forward looking PE ratio is still pretty good. Especially when compared to BNB and AFG.

Ill have to play around with some graphs, but it would be good to see how far from their peaks the US banks have fallen. Looks around 20%, which is inline with the way MBL has fallen from 98 to almost 80.


----------



## Lachlan6

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

A bloke in the States writes an article on MBL (apparently the same guy who uncovered Enron, the similarities between the two companies being ah, hardly anything) and the stock plunges! Amazing how this environment causes mass psychology to panic at the slightest thing.

Which brings me to the question of, is this plunge a great opportunity. Technically, I would be waiting for a sign of reversal now (i.e double bottom, bullish divergence on lower low followowed by a breakout of some sort etc). However it may have hit some type of support here, being resistance turned support from Oct to Dec last year. Notice also that in the last four days of trading, they have all finished in white candles, indicating that despite the drops there is at least some follow through buying. 

Emphasis again will not touch this one in the current market climate UNLESS it can show some sign of reversal. At the moment far away from that, but interesting after todays downward move.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Lachlan6 said:


> Emphasis again will not touch this one in the current market climate UNLESS it can show some sign of reversal. At the moment far away from that, but interesting after todays downward move.



I agree Lach. Couldn't trust buying any support levels at the moment. Fear is winning the game. People with cash are going to have a field day in a little while. This is one on my long term list along with WDC once (if) sub prime dust settles.


----------



## rub92me

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Dropped (un)comfortably through the first resistance around 78 - next stop 75. But like Kennas and Lachlan6 - I won't be using my cash just yet to buy this. Must be interesting scenes in the Mac boardroom today. No big bonuses this round??


----------



## Awesomandy

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



rub92me said:


> Dropped (un)comfortably through the first resistance around 78 - next stop 75.




Yep, it almost looks like a bottomless pit. I finally bailed out this morning, and won't be touching it for a while.


----------



## mime

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

How can the guy mark similarities between Mac and Enron? Does he have proof of fraud? Because that's what happened at Enron.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



kennas said:


> I agree Lach. Couldn't trust buying any support levels at the moment. Fear is winning the game. People with cash are going to have a field day in a little while. This is one on my long term list along with WDC once (if) sub prime dust settles.



I'm not sure if anyone should be getting into financials for quite a while, as this is without doubt the top for them. Only one way from there.

I was paper shorting this a few weeks back and thinking it could go to 79 quite easily. I thought that was too ambitious. But as it's turned out to be not, I reckon this is going through $67 on the same analysis. You'd be spewing doing that cap raising at $90. Lol!


----------



## Ken

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

This is exactly what the market needed in  my opinion.

Bringing back some value to stocks.

I think a lot of stocks were getting ahead of themselves.

I avoided the majority of blue chip companies but am now comfortable to set up a margin loan for some of the big banks for a 5 year term...

MBL
NAB
WDC
WOW

They are what I am looking at...


----------



## Sean K

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I think some analysts pumping MBL will be short changed end of year. Or, maybe it's been overdone? 



> 1249 [Dow Jones] Citi analyst Mike Younger keeps Buy rating on Macquarie Bank (MBL.AU) and repeats A$122.88 price target, reckons today's share price reaction to concerns in credit markets is overdone. "The broad consensus view is that there has been an overreaction as far as credit spreads go globally, and it would seem that the market is shooting first and asking questions later," Younger says, noting U.S. investment banks have also been hit. Says MBL's model not under threat at this stage, says deal flow may be slightly impacted, although not to same extent as private equity deals. MBL down 7.5% at A$76.29.


----------



## barnz2k

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

again wishing got out when it cracked the $100!

Hopefully will recover from this to at least positive from my buy in!

Dang - a few words and this happens.


----------



## reece55

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



mime said:


> How can the guy mark similarities between Mac and Enron? Does he have proof of fraud? Because that's what happened at Enron.




Mime
I suggest you take a long hard look at MBL financial's - I have said it millions of times, the level of disclosure in their financials makes it impossible to properly assess the risks the business undertakes on a daily basis and many of the mark to market treatments are extremely subjective, particularly the investments they have in their satellite funds.

I'm not saying they are frauds, I am saying that the accounting regulations allow them to be artistic. 

I honestly feel sorry for anyone who bought in the last couple of days hoping for a recovery, because it has been a much bigger blood bath than I ever could have imagined.

Interesting times...........

Cheers


----------



## Ken

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

One of the more spectacular days for MBL...

Some serious money lost in the last couple of days...


And I suspect today the asx factored in a fall in the dow overnight..

So we may see more red tommorow.

No late surge...

5900 all ords???


----------



## mime

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Reece the reason Enron's problems wernt detected was because they committed fraud to conceal their debts. Saying to same about the Mac is a very serious statement. I don't care how much it drops as I sold out at $89 I'm just wondering when/if to buy again. The Mac bank could be the blue chip buy of the year at this price.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



mime said:


> Reece the reason Enron's problems wernt detected was because they committed fraud to conceal their debts. Saying to same about the Mac is a very serious statement. I don't care how much it drops as I sold out at $89 I'm just wondering when/if to buy again. The Mac bank could be the blue chip buy of the year at this price.




It wasn't that long ago that NAB traders covered up their trades too. It's good that you have such optimism for the 'House Of Cards', but how do you know when it's undervalued, as you haven't said how you are valuing them? Technical analysis? What price will you be buying at, or should we average down?
Are you buying this 'blue chip' at these 'bargain' prices?


----------



## reece55

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



mime said:


> Reece the reason Enron's problems wernt detected was because they committed fraud to conceal their debts. Saying to same about the Mac is a very serious statement. I don't care how much it drops as I sold out at $89 I'm just wondering when/if to buy again. The Mac bank could be the blue chip buy of the year at this price.




Mime - have a good look through my post again mate.......

I didn't say anywhere within my post that I thought MBL were frauds...... Plus, Jim Chanos wasn't saying MBL were frauds, he simply said they had severe related party issues and complex off balance sheet debt structures that had the potential to cause issues in the future as they were not properly disclosed with the body of the Companies financials. These are all true facts - draw your own conclusions. 

I know the Enron story pretty well (hence my avatar), at the end of the game they (Enron) were fraudulent, but the factors that lead their accounting team to come up with the dodgy strategies in the first place (i.e. Raptors limited partnerships, etc) was actually a legal accounting treatment - mark to market valuation of their deals via a DCF model. The SEC and their auditors signed off to the treatment initially. Have a look at MIG - isn't this exactly what they are doing, revaluing assets using AASB 139 and 132 whilst the group bleeds through cash like no tomorrow.....

Look, you don't have to listen to me - I would say the chart tells you more than I could....

All the best
Reece


----------



## mime

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I herd on the news that one factor in the big fall was that one of their property funds lost 25% because of the credit crunch.


----------



## Mofra

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



mime said:


> I herd on the news that one factor in the big fall was that one of their property funds lost 25% because of the credit crunch.




Yes, US listed fund had a portfolio drop of over 4% however as it is a leveraged fund it equates to a 25% drop in fund value, of course translating to a drop in the management fee paid to the parent company. Would have to be effecting sentiment towards MBL as a whole, as capital tightening will effect their ability to both draw management fees from funds & conduct the M&A activity which is a core earnings driver.

Have to wonder if there were people who actually gearing into a geared fund specialising in US property in the middle of a sub-prime lending meltdown


----------



## mime

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Talk about volatile. The stock was up around 5% or so and closed the day at a loss. Anyone game enough to buy in yet?


----------



## waz

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

MBL is now sitting on a P/E ratio of 12.44x 
thats based on last years figures, not forward looking.

thats the lowest i can ever remember it. so even if profit drops by 20% (300mil ????), its still on a good earnings multiple, keeping in mind we are looking at the earnings multiple, not EBIT. Banks are normally valued on EBIT.

Can anyone explain why BNB and AFG with higher multiples went up today?
Doesn't make sense. Unless people are still thinking about that article that came out 2 days back.

This is looking like a good pairs trading combination over the next few days.


----------



## UPKA

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



waz said:


> MBL is now sitting on a P/E ratio of 12.44x
> thats based on last years figures, not forward looking.
> 
> thats the lowest i can ever remember it. so even if profit drops by 20% (300mil ????), its still on a good earnings multiple, keeping in mind we are looking at the earnings multiple, not EBIT. Banks are normally valued on EBIT.
> 
> Can anyone explain why BNB and AFG with higher multiples went up today?
> Doesn't make sense. Unless people are still thinking about that article that came out 2 days back.
> 
> This is looking like a good pairs trading combination over the next few days.




i think its mainly because a lot of the hedge funds r not out of hte dark yet, we r yet to know the full damage of the subprime trouble, over the coming weeks more dirt will be digged out. since Macq has the most exposure to US out of the banks in Aust. ppl r getting worried. alot of them r sitting on quiet a juicy profit if they invested few yrs back, so prob its time to "profit take".


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



waz said:


> Can anyone explain why BNB and AFG with higher multiples went up today?
> Doesn't make sense. Unless people are still thinking about that article that came out 2 days back.



I think it's because BNB are a little more prepared to disclose information. MBL couldn't say what their debt levels actually were and at their press conference at the AGM said they had NO exposure to US sub prime...


----------



## mime

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I think private equity could be in major problems in future if interest rates rise and profits drop. Can only wait and see.


----------



## Miner

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

MBL is an interesting story. I wish Enron could say more on his research on Enron and MBL.
The Enron man who spoke in ABC radio about two months back saw  a strong similarity between MBL and Enron . MBL revaluates its assets and then expands its equity. The process is just like housing bubble. The same house gets revalued again and again. The bank is happy to lend loan against that. So is MBL does. I am not suggesting to call them any thing else but taking the best advantage of the legal loop holes. 
Even MBL gets recovered as their supporting agencies like Citi will keep buying to ramp the share up and emotion will work. 
It will be interesting watch however for next one month if market euphoria does not subsidise then watch for your investment in Macquarie including super. It will be a domino effect as there are large no of funds who kept their investment on Macquarie as if a sacred cow.
I will revisit what I said in about a month.

Happy Investing

Miner


----------



## vishalt

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Yeah I think Chanos (the guy who compared MBL to Enron) scared the balls out of a lot of people. 

I'm scared to get into it myself, even though its looking really cheap fundamentally D:!


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



mime said:


> How can the guy mark similarities between Mac and Enron? Does he have proof of fraud? Because that's what happened at Enron.




There is a website being sued by a bank in the states for libelous comments regarding the subprime issue.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Miner said:


> I am not suggesting to call them any thing else but taking the best advantage of the legal loop holes.




Its not even legal loop holes, its part of the game...the debt to equity game.  The shareholders are secondary...primary are the _winners_ who work for the bank and who invent the schemes and make them happen.  Who cares if MBLs equity is made out of thin air when you just used your bonus to pay off your house in Double Bay?  By the time whatever it is that will eventually catch up with the likes of MBL actually catches up with them when you have no debt and you're being paid _pension_ money out of super each month via some well secured annuity, tax free, until you die?  So long as the ship don't sink before you've reached your goals it's going to become someone elses problem when you're gone.


----------



## Mofra

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Miner said:


> MBL is an interesting story. I wish Enron could say more on his research on Enron and MBL.
> The Enron man who spoke in ABC radio about two months back saw  a strong similarity between MBL and Enron . MBL revaluates its assets and then expands its equity. The process is just like housing bubble. The same house gets revalued again and again. The bank is happy to lend loan against that. So is MBL does. I am not suggesting to call them any thing else but taking the best advantage of the legal loop holes.
> Even MBL gets recovered as their supporting agencies like Citi will keep buying to ramp the share up and emotion will work.
> It will be interesting watch however for next one month if market euphoria does not subsidise then watch for your investment in Macquarie including super. It will be a domino effect as there are large no of funds who kept their investment on Macquarie as if a sacred cow.
> I will revisit what I said in about a month.
> 
> Happy Investing
> 
> Miner



Miner,

The revaluation of assets rarely (if ever) occurs on the parent company balance sheet. Most of the infrastructure is partitioned off into seperate funds or listed entities, the revaluation occurs for the parent company to include the revaluation in growth statistic upon which management fees are drawn. Regardless of what they are involved in (everything from airports, hotels taxis, etc), MBL remains by and large a management & consultancy company
as much as a fundie. A burst asset bubble will wipe of the management fees but the parent compant is safe.

Now, with a massive restructure on the cards they will almost certainly another layer of protection between assets & the parent entity. This is a company governed more by growth & risk analysis than a standard organisation, which is why they have been able to so ably profit from the bullish economic conditions in recent times. The interesting part will be to see just how they change their structure in anticipation for the more difficult economic conditions ahead.


----------



## reece55

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Hrmm.... the parent Company would be safe from harm if the asset bubble affected their sattelite funds..... Lets have a think about that....

1. Revenue impact - Revenue from fee and consulting commissions to associates and JV's for 2007 was over 1 Billion. Lets say that costs associated with such advisory was half (500 Mil). If their fee income was gone from associates, that would be 1/3 of net profit - sounds fairly material to me.....

2. Asset impariment - Net assets are 7.5 Bil, investments in associates 4 Bil - I think an impairment here would greatly affect their collateral.

Everyone needs to have a good look at what MBL actually is - the biggest deck of cards on the ASX. The Company restructure is not about asset protection, it's about getting around the Capital requirements of having banking licence for the investment banks head Company. It will actually increase risk, because the prudential requirements won't hold them back ....

In saying all this however, MBL have lasted this long ripping everyone off with their spin outs, so perhaps if the bank roll continues, everything will be ok..... I've heard this story before......


----------



## reece55

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



theasxgorilla said:


> Its not even legal loop holes, its part of the game...the debt to equity game.  The shareholders are secondary...primary are the _winners_ who work for the bank and who invent the schemes and make them happen.  Who cares if MBLs equity is made out of thin air when you just used your bonus to pay off your house in Double Bay?  By the time whatever it is that will eventually catch up with the likes of MBL actually catches up with them when you have no debt and you're being paid _pension_ money out of super each month via some well secured annuity, tax free, until you die?  So long as the ship don't sink before you've reached your goals it's going to become someone elses problem when you're gone.




You've hit on the head ASX.G........

This is exactly the premise that MBL's is built on - if you really have a good think about the entire business model (and people did about a year and a bit ago), it is fundamentally flawed, because it is impossible for group to act in the best interests of:

1). The shareholders of MBL
2). The shareholders of their sattelite funds
3). The investors in their unlisted funds that conduct business with 1 and 2

In the end, who do they act in the best interest of? Themselves, because of the material level of bonuses the Company forks out.....


----------



## Mofra

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



reece55 said:


> Hrmm.... the parent Company would be safe from harm if the asset bubble affected their sattelite funds..... Lets have a think about that....



Not safe from harm... safe from an Enron type meltdown, as implied by posts above.



reece55 said:


> 1. Revenue impact - Revenue from fee and consulting commissions to associates and JV's for 2007 was over 1 Billion. Lets say that costs associated with such advisory was half (500 Mil). If their fee income was gone from associates, that would be 1/3 of net profit - sounds fairly material to me.....



I doubt losing 1/3 of net profit would be enough to cause a financial meltdown in the majority of listed companies - MBL have one of the highest contract to fulltime ratios in the country, so have a higher degree of flexibility on overheads than many of their contempories.



reece55 said:


> 2. Asset impariment - Net assets are 7.5 Bil, investments in associates 4 Bil - I think an impairment here would greatly affect their collateral.



So their recent raising of capital just prior to a global tightening of credit is another tick in the box of intelligent timing.



reece55 said:


> Everyone needs to have a good look at what MBL actually is - the biggest deck of cards on the ASX. The Company restructure is not about asset protection, it's about getting around the Capital requirements of having banking licence for the investment banks head Company. It will actually increase risk, because the prudential requirements won't hold them back ....



It is about both - less regulation and an increase in asset protection. Lumping MBL with the profiles of largely unregulated hedge funds & private equity firms seems a little unfair (and over the top) when you consider the difference in approach both to raising capital, internal risk policies & history of reporting.



reece55 said:


> In saying all this however, MBL have lasted this long ripping everyone off with their spin outs, so perhaps if the bank roll continues, everything will be ok..... I've heard this story before......




Reece, you've made some good points throughout this thread but the last paragraph sounds a little bitter. I wont speculate upon the resoans for this, although I am a little curious - are you hoping for an Enron style meltdown?

I can certainly see an impact on figures due to global credit tightening but a collapse is (pardon the pun) not on the cards.


----------



## reece55

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Mofra,
Firstly, thanks for the intelligent debate here, sometimes opinions can become heated and people on boards can get a little abusive - you seem to be putting forward a logical and from what I can see objective opinion so I do appreciate that.

Let me say firstly, that I would be extremely disappointed if MBL went down in an Enron style collapse. Clearly, it would adversely affect Australia in ways that are too numerous to mention on one post. I sincerely hope that this is just a stage in the asset cycle that MBL go through and emerge safely so that investors funds are safe from harm.

However, to state that an Enron collapse couldn't happen to MBL is not true. They are the most aggressive M&A firm around internationally, they have been paying top $$ for all the assets they have acquired of late and pay the largest pay packets to maintain there staff. Like it or not, the similarities between MBL and Enron are numerous - only MBL is selling financial instruments and services, Enron was selling Gas distribution.

In reference to the their latest capital raising, I would say it was more opportunistic than intelligent - I mean, every man and his dog raised money before this latest correction/cash (the verdicts still out), why because scrip prices were high and cash was about, simple as that. Sure, it gives them a buffer, but how much considering their gearing levels, which are out of this world? But they raised less than 1 Bil - a material write down in their investments in associates could cause them to default on many of their loan covenants etc.

OK, happy to concede they have a good consultant to FTE ratio. This obviously decreases the profit downside risk. 

I'm not bitter about MBL, I just think they are terrible at disclosing the risks associated with their and their satellite businesses. And for the average investor who doesn't understand financials, they are fooled about what is going on. They see a nice profit in MIG and think things are great - it's all just paper make believe money....

As I always say, one needs to draw their own conclusions in life, but MBL is a very interesting little debacle in corporate Australia and it will be interesting to see what arises out of them in the next 6 - 12 months...

Cheers


----------



## Mofra

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



reece55 said:


> Firstly, thanks for the intelligent debate here, sometimes opinions can become heated and people on boards can get a little abusive - you seem to be putting forward a logical and from what I can see objective opinion so I do appreciate that.



Likewise, we all learn from hearing someone else's viewpoint



reece55 said:


> Let me say firstly, that I would be extremely disappointed if MBL went down in an Enron style collapse. Clearly, it would adversely affect Australia in ways that are too numerous to mention on one post. I sincerely hope that this is just a stage in the asset cycle that MBL go through and emerge safely so that investors funds are safe from harm.
> 
> However, to state that an Enron collapse couldn't happen to MBL is not true. They are the most aggressive M&A firm around internationally, they have been paying top $$ for all the assets they have acquired of late and pay the largest pay packets to maintain there staff. Like it or not, the similarities between MBL and Enron are numerous - only MBL is selling financial instruments and services, Enron was selling Gas distribution.



I still see a major difference between Enron & Macquarie.
Macquarie are very quick to transfer assets off to subsidieries or (more commonly) package off assets under managements to "sophisticated investors" (yes the term makes me chuckles as well). Enron were less diversified, and the infrastructure assets were vital to the daily running of their core business, not just to one of the 6 major businesses they operate in like MBL.

MBL are deriving asset management fees from annually revaluing infrastructure assets held in subsidieries - not a very clean practice, but one that is fully disclosed, and is not directly comparable to including forward earnings as trade debtors on a balance sheet. 

M&A activity will dry up moving forward, however staff & intellectual property overheads are easier to dispose of than forward order gas supply agreements & the associated infrastructure arrangements.



reece55 said:


> In reference to the their latest capital raising, I would say it was more opportunistic than intelligent - I mean, every man and his dog raised money before this latest correction/cash (the verdicts still out), why because scrip prices were high and cash was about, simple as that. Sure, it gives them a buffer, but how much considering their gearing levels, which are out of this world? But they raised less than 1 Bil - a material write down in their investments in associates could cause them to default on many of their loan covenants etc.



Agree that it was opportunistic, however I still see it as showing a reasonable measure of market conditions in the near future. Majority of their loans are held off balance sheet or against assets already majority held (although not managed) by the same "sophisticated investors", againt consisitent with a practice of sheilding the parent company from as much exposure as possible.




reece55 said:


> OK, happy to concede they have a good consultant to FTE ratio. This obviously decreases the profit downside risk.
> 
> I'm not bitter about MBL, I just think they are terrible at disclosing the risks associated with their and their satellite businesses.



1 point each I would think here - yes, happy to agree that MBL exist in an evironment where selling yourself is rewarded, disclosing the risks is done only "in accordance with Macquarie's standard practice of complying with all relevent regulations under (insert act here)"



reece55 said:


> As I always say, one needs to draw their own conclusions in life, but MBL is a very interesting little debacle in corporate Australia and it will be interesting to see what arises out of them in the next 6 - 12 months...



I think MBL are fairly unique in the Australian corporate landscape, so even those with no direct interest in Macquarie would keep an eye on them to see what they are doing. 

Taxis, Credit Cards, London Water supply (London market blindsided by a ridiculously low bid for the FTSE, brilliant stuff)... nothing like a diversified industrial for a bit of economic soap opera in the past few months


----------



## Gundini

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Who would have ever dreamed you would see MBL in the $69's...

Has lost 30% in 3 months... OMG, a serious pullback...


----------



## barnz2k

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Ouch. This is really painful now.
I knew today would hear after fridays efforts.
How the going to recover from this one? and how long will it take!?


----------



## Gundini

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

How longs a piece of string?

It seems like a bottomless pit...

And to think I thought it was a bargain buy at around $90


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

May find support at the 38.2% Fib level ($68), which roughly matches with earlier resistance between $68 and $70.

Next support after that is the 50% Fib level at $58.60, which matches the previous support level at $59-$60.

So could be support around the current price, or on down to $60!

Cheers,
GP


----------



## CanOz

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I had a sell stop CFD order on this today but it didn't get activated, thankfully. It looks like buyers are coming back in at this level, still may be a shorting opp, thoughts anyone? GP?

Cheers,


----------



## mime

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

The question is when/if to buy back in. I've got a feeling that in 6 months time the stock price will be back around the $90 mark again. Of course for legal reasons the stock could also go down even more .


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Personally I wouldn't consider shorting at a significant support level.

But then, what do I know... 

GP


----------



## Awesomandy

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

This is seriously looking like a ship sink. An ex-college who has just left us last Fri to start work at MBL received a floatie for his farewell gift. We never thought he would really have to use it!


----------



## explod

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



mime said:


> The question is when/if to buy back in. I've got a feeling that in 6 months time the stock price will be back around the $90 mark again. Of course for legal reasons the stock could also go down even more .




Would be pleased if you would be so kind as to elaborate on your feeling that the SP will move back up to $90 in six months.  I am hesitant to take note of posts without qualification


----------



## CanOz

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



GreatPig said:


> Personally I wouldn't consider shorting at a significant support level.
> 
> But then, what do I know...
> 
> GP




No thats good advice GP! I guess i was a bit peaved for it going through my sell stop this morning, would have paid off handsomely too. I guess i better wait for another go at it later.

Cheers,


----------



## mime

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



explod said:


> Would be pleased if you would be so kind as to elaborate on your feeling that the SP will move back up to $90 in six months.  I am hesitant to take note of posts without qualification




Then you shouldn't take any notice of what I say. I came to that conclusion because I seen it time and time again that after a stock drops significantly it has recovered to it's same levels later down the track. Just look at the NAB.


----------



## vishalt

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

lol this is a buying opportunity. 

the selling is based on fear & over-reaction rather than fundamentals, seriously macquarie banks makes billions a year - whats $300m (from hedge funds) that its not even directly responsible for gonna do?

and that counts for most other Australian financial demons as well, BNB & Allco barely have any exposure

im accumulating this baby before it shoots past $100 in the medium term


----------



## Buffettology

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

One off losses like this have always prooven incredible buying opportunities!  

Coke, American Express anyone?


----------



## Mofra

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Buffettology said:


> One off losses like this have always prooven incredible buying opportunities!
> 
> Coke, American Express anyone?



That is assuming it is a one off loss. Part of the pullback seems to be based on the fear that the tightening of world credit will also lead to a reduction in M&A activity, which is a major source of MBL cashflow.

Happy to let this one form some new sort of support base prior to considering a long position.


----------



## aussienorm

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



vishalt said:


> lol this is a buying opportunity.
> 
> the selling is based on fear & over-reaction rather than fundamentals, seriously macquarie banks makes billions a year - whats $300m (from hedge funds) that its not even directly responsible for gonna do?
> 
> and that counts for most other Australian financial demons as well, BNB & Allco barely have any exposure
> 
> im accumulating this baby before it shoots past $100 in the medium term




Only the little wheels are falling off...............wait for the big ones to fall off!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## explod

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



mime said:


> Then you shouldn't take any notice of what I say. I came to that conclusion because I seen it time and time again that after a stock drops significantly it has recovered to it's same levels later down the track. Just look at the NAB.




And look at Telstra two, it didnt'.  Many thought that HIH would bounce back and lost over 95%.     In fact NAB you mention is also in a down trend and looks like it could continue lower.    As a fundamentalist and trend follower for many years I have learned never to assume on any experience of the past.  You can only act on the direction of the action.   ........the future we do not know yet.    Fundamantals tell us what should happen but never tells us when.    On fundamentals the US Stock Market price earnings ratio is way too high, so a crash has to happen, it has started to happen but we dont' know when it will all pan out, but as just mentioned by another above it is going to go a long waaaaay doooown before it is over.

My purpose in pursuing your post is that I see the situation on all markets at the moment as dangerous and that many on the forums with not a lot of experience may get hurt from statements that are not backed up by a full consideration of the facts.     The forums are no place for games.

In my humble opinion of course


----------



## Awesomandy

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I agree with most that this is now a good buying opportunity. However, since we can never tell where the bottom is, it is probably much better to take a wait and see approach. It's still not too late to buy in after getting confirmation for a new trend.


----------



## waz

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Hi Explod,

Just continueing from what your saying 'US markets are overpriced' do you have any facts to back this up.
Are you talking about any particular sector? And what measurement are you using.

Since we are in the MBL thread I assume we are talking about US investment banks. Just doing a quick search. Goldman Sachs is on a current PE of 8.75. Other banks are very similar. 

Please elaborate more. ie. at what multiples are you expecting something to be overpriced, evenly priced, and underpriced.

personally, at current multiples (and assuming things dont get much worse) i think the us is fairly evenly priced. although the tech sector in general i find is overpriced. i cant justify a company such as yahoo sitting on a PE of 45+, (my reason being the risk isnt worth any possible gains above the risk free rate).


----------



## explod

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



waz said:


> Hi Explod,
> 
> Just continueing from what your saying 'US markets are overpriced' do you have any facts to back this up.
> Are you talking about any particular sector? And what measurement are you using.
> 
> Since we are in the MBL thread I assume we are talking about US investment banks. Just doing a quick search. Goldman Sachs is on a current PE of 8.75. Other banks are very similar.
> 
> Please elaborate more. ie. at what multiples are you expecting something to be overpriced, evenly priced, and underpriced.
> 
> personally, at current multiples (and assuming things dont get much worse) i think the us is fairly evenly priced. although the tech sector in general i find is overpriced. i cant justify a company such as yahoo sitting on a PE of 45+, (my reason being the risk isnt worth any possible gains above the risk free rate).




Waz, a very good question.   There is no simple answer.   It is why I am a trend follower, but also make my own assessment on fundamentals before entering a trade.

The problem with P/E ratios is that they are based on forcasts for the industry for which a company may operate.   This then means that in fact they can be based on an opinion.    These forcasts got right out of hand leading up to the 1930's crash and I suggest this is the case now.

Another problem is the Index, the Dow has only a few selected blue chips the NYSE and NASDAQ have many and are more akin to our All Ords.

Another is debt,  assets owned (so called) on margin are being counted as assets, when it is far from the case.   Banks of course thrive on this movement of funds taking fees on the way through and interest all the while.  Macquaries is feasting well on it.   But what happens when liquidity begins to dry up, as now,  the P/E ratios at the moment do not reflect that yet.   So I have a problem with the outlook.

This issue is beyond me to outline properly, my knowledge is ample for my own purpose and in any case the area is subjective and others will have differrent political, social and economic views.

However for those wanting to see another side to Wall Street,and to dig into the answers raised, Robert R Precter Jnr.,s  text "Conquer the Crash"  John Wily & Sons 2002 is an excellent piece of education.  Another "Financial Armageddon" Michael PANZER, Kaplan Publishing 2007 is excellent and will send a chill up your spine.


----------



## explod

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Further to the last, just thought the following excerpt from "Conquer The Crash" which touches on P/E ratios may be of interest.

Precter, at Page 61.    .......Standards & Poor's, has just bowed to pressure to change the basis of its earnings reports to "operating earnings" rather than total company earnings so that the reported P/E will henceforth be about half of what it really is.   They have begun to tack these ratios onto the old ratio's eighty-year histor as if they are the same thing.  Operating earnings omit several items, the main one being interest payments for debt service. HELLO!  Debt service is what is killing industry!  Leaving it out is like leaving torture equipment out of a description of a dungeon.   The desperation within the financial world to avoid reporting "bad news" (i.e., the truth) is obviously immense.
                How do so many public and prefessional investors justify holding such expensive stocks today?   The latest issue of Money magazine (March 2002) quotes a manager at one of the largest stock mutual funds in the world:  "You have to trust them.  To some degree they become faith stocks." Money concurs, "Investors must rely as much on gut instinct as on objective analysis.   Sometimes an extra large helping of hope is required."  One could hardly utter a worse guide to life, much less to the assumption of financial risk.  Those of us dedicated to objective financial analysis aren't always right.  But those who rely on extra-large helpings of trust, faith, hope and "gut instinct" always regret it."   end quote


And for your idea Mime that because a stock has behaved in a certain way in the past, it will do so again, is ok perhaps, but "gut instinct" is not for me


----------



## Buffettology

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

No doubt, we have to wait and see the Fed and RBA outcomes before buying in.  

Could give us some great bargain hunting opportunities!


----------



## vishalt

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I jumped in at $70, like I said the market is full of crap and MacQ is a fundmental powerhouse. 


It's not directly responsible for this hedge funds. 

Those hedge funds HAVE NOT collapsed (yet), they only stand to lose a portion of their money. 

Even if does collapse its barely going to dent the financial rolls royce.

MacQ generates way too much money, and its management are really top people. 

It's P/E ratio is 12, cheap compared to a sector average of 15 and an AllOrds average of 17. 

Analysts still maintain their bullish forecasts, I think Goldman & Meryll still retained a $106 target.


----------



## Ken

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I work at the NAB, and was speaking to a financial adviser and there were hedge funds not directly related to MBL, but they had lost 80% of their value due to the fact they were heavily geared.

Dont know much about hedge funds, but it sounded nasty.

No offence if anyone lives in Toorak in Melbourne, but I hope it was your funds seeings as your houses price have gone up 700k in the last 3 months.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



explod said:


> Further to the last, just thought the following excerpt from "Conquer The Crash" which touches on P/E ratios may be of interest.
> 
> Precter, at Page 61.




From Wikipedia on Prechter & EWI:

"In July 2007, the Hulbert Financial Digest, published by Dow Jones, reported that Elliott Wave International's Elliott Wave Financial Forecast had a 15-year annualized return of negative 25.4%/year and a return of negative 17.8% over the life of the newsletter."

Unfortunately, in light of the last 5 years of economic, share market, and property boom activity it looks a lot like Prechters book isn't worth the paper it's printed on.   A slightly different slant on the old saying it's not time-in the market, but _timing_ the market that counts.


----------



## Awesomandy

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



vishalt said:


> It's not directly responsible for this hedge funds.
> 
> Those hedge funds HAVE NOT collapsed (yet), they only stand to lose a portion of their money.
> 
> Even if does collapse its barely going to dent the financial rolls royce.
> 
> MacQ generates way too much money, and its management are really top people.
> 
> It's P/E ratio is 12, cheap compared to a sector average of 15 and an AllOrds average of 17.
> 
> Analysts still maintain their bullish forecasts, I think Goldman & Meryll still retained a $106 target.




Some hedge funds that invest in the sub prime debt market have done very badly, and I won't be suprised seeing a mass of redemptions coming out of those funds as credit risks are being re-assessed. There are some funds that would hedge credit risks, but those that trade on the speculations of credit improvements are most likely hiding under a rock and sheding tears at the moment.

It is also interesting to see how MBL generates its returns. The bank buys assests with its capital, refinances, and then onsold to satellite funds (most likely with other investors' money) for a higher price. The cycle then repeats itself as it financially engineer its earnings. With the economic conditions of the past few years, the bank has made a substantial amount of money partly due to the low cost of debt. But if the global credit market tightens, and the cost of debt increases, it will be much harder for the bank to maintain or increase its earnings growth. Currently, the P/E ratio is around 12. However, if the growth of incomes slows, or, in the worst case, becomes negative, the P/E ratio will be much higher. So, I think that holders of MBL should keep a careful eye on the global credit market, as any negative signs here might point to a possible drop in the bank's growth, and share price would most likely follow suit.

Therefore, personally, I have closed out my positions in MBL last week, and have no immediate intentions of re-entering. Of course, if the sub-prime disaster turns out to be a storm in a teacup, MBL may be testing new heights again soon. But, on the other hand, the bank will find it very tough to continue its current growth rate if the credit market deterioates.


----------



## falconx

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Ken said:


> No offence if anyone lives in Toorak in Melbourne, but I hope it was your funds seeings as your houses price have gone up 700k in the last 3 months.




Has this been published anywhere credible recently? I heard Kew has gone up like ~60% over the last year, is this fact or fiction?


----------



## explod

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



theasxgorilla said:


> From Wikipedia on Prechter & EWI:
> 
> "In July 2007, the Hulbert Financial Digest, published by Dow Jones, reported that Elliott Wave International's Elliott Wave Financial Forecast had a 15-year annualized return of negative 25.4%/year and a return of negative 17.8% over the life of the newsletter."
> 
> Unfortunately, in light of the last 5 years of economic, share market, and property boom activity it looks a lot like Prechters book isn't worth the paper it's printed on.   A slightly different slant on the old saying it's not time-in the market, but _timing_ the market that counts.




Yes the timing is everything but in the bigger picture few can do it at all, the reason I am a trend follower.

However the last five years of property boom was manufactured by the US Fed moving interest rates to almost zero, same with the carry trade using low cost Yen, it starting to move up is creating bigtime problems.   Prechter's book reads as if it was written today.  It does not proclaim a time-line and is fundamentaly sound.    What the delay in the economic down turn has in fact done has set us up for a much greater shakeout than would have been the case if sensible policies to tighten credit around 01/02 had occurred.

As for his investment company, many companies have had a hard time in the current climate. The sorts of measures taken by the US Fed have been pretty irresponsible and I suppose one would not have believed it possible five years ago.

Just as telling, and just as irrellevant to our discussion, the US Dollar Index in the last five years is negative 33%


----------



## barnz2k

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

open was strong and back over 80 but downhill from there??
Seems a few stocks similar - very strong opening price but then falling back, even below yesterdays close.


----------



## Ken

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Presently MBL is paying around about a 5% dividend full franked.


So even you are holding the stock for 3-5 years... you will get a return of some sort.  When The bull market resumes its overall upward trend which it has done on previous corrections. It is definatley possible that MBL is a $120-$150 stock in 5 years.   

I looked back at BHP when it was $24, after it had run to $32. And BHP is now $35. Its all part of it.

Is the same happenign with MBL here.  Is this power house of a company presenting an opportunity for the people who missed out?

Time will tell.


Looking at the sums, and the general feeling before the subprime stuff, MBL was basically the king of the ASX and there were talks about it taking of RIO and BHP.

The trend changes a lot of peoples veiws on stocks. i have found this with the specs i am holding. Nothing has changed. If stocks didnt have corrections then the market would be very stale.  Fear greed factor....


----------



## waz

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

With a current price of 66.70 and a 12 month target price of 111.42 (average, and most of these valuations have been done this month)

The upside potential is a staggering 67% 

Can any of you think of a time when any Australian bank has had an upside, or even downside potential of more than 50%? Not me

This doesnt make sense, even if earnings were to fall by 20% in the next year, ie EPS from 570 to 450, at a price of 66.70, mbl is sitting on PE ratio of 14.8

In other words, even though most pundits are expecting profit to increase from anywhere from 0 to 18%, even with a 20% fall in profit, whats that, about 300mil. Its future PE is still very attractive.

What do u guys think a worst case scenario is?
Even a 400mil fall in profit mbl is still a bargain.


----------



## YELNATS

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

The sell-off in MBL has been astonishing. All the value accumulated in about the last 11 months has disappeared in the last month.

I've not held MBL in the past because of their high pricing, but it's hard to avoid accumulating at these levels.


----------



## Gundini

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I am watching it tumble as I speak, off 30% in 2 months...

At some point today, the Big Boys will snap this up. They have been selling it down in the last hour/day/week/month/months....


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

The comparison to Enron a few months ago was easily laughed off by many, however I think there a few more beginning to empathise with the "House of Cards" theory

Broke support at $68 next major support $58 minor support $63.

Cheers


BT


----------



## Lachlan6

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Next major support is around $59.0 after breaking strongly through the 150 week EMA. Also corresponds to 50% level from 2002 lows. If this fails, then the next support will be $50.00. But lets see what happens if it hits $59.0 first. Looks ominous at the moment.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



reece55 said:


> Mime - have a good look through my post again mate.......
> 
> I didn't say anywhere within my post that I thought MBL were frauds...... Plus, Jim Chanos wasn't saying MBL were frauds, he simply said they had severe related party issues and complex off balance sheet debt structures that had the potential to cause issues in the future as they were not properly disclosed with the body of the Companies financials. These are all true facts - draw your own conclusions.
> 
> I know the Enron story pretty well (hence my avatar), at the end of the game they (Enron) were fraudulent, but the factors that lead their accounting team to come up with the dodgy strategies in the first place (i.e. Raptors limited partnerships, etc) was actually a legal accounting treatment - mark to market valuation of their deals via a DCF model. The SEC and their auditors signed off to the treatment initially. Have a look at MIG - isn't this exactly what they are doing, revaluing assets using AASB 139 and 132 whilst the group bleeds through cash like no tomorrow.....
> 
> Look, you don't have to listen to me - I would say the chart tells you more than I could....
> 
> All the best
> Reece




Hats off to you Reece you nailed it.

I still remember you made many warnings about MBL long before the true Carnage started, I like i said in another post hope and expectation will be there until u choose not to see it!

Good on u Reece!


----------



## reece55

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Trade_It said:


> Hats off to you Reece you nailed it.
> 
> I still remember you made many warnings about MBL long before the true Carnage started, I like i said in another post hope and expectation will be there until u choose not to see it!
> 
> Good on u Reece!




Cheers Joe, it's been a dramatic fall out.....

I expected some fairly heavy selling, but MBL is where it was some two years ago in four weeks. I was expecting 70 as a first target, not 62. I also expected it would take a lot longer! Still, it's not the heaviest sold of investment bank - BNB and AFG have actually fared worse, and I much prefer BNB model from an operational perspective from MBL's.....

Interestingly, MBL have been the only ones not saying a thing about their exposure to the liquidity crisis - any rally IMO is a selling op, I would have thought there is more bad news to come from the "house that debt built"!

All the best guys, difficult trading conditions for anyone but the short seller ATM.

Cheers


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



reece55 said:


> Interestingly, MBL have been the only ones not saying a thing about their exposure to the liquidity crisis - any rally IMO is a selling op, I would have thought there is more bad news to come from the "house that debt built"!




Yep. I don't understand why these others have been punished so much in comparison, when it looks to me like they have done the "righty". Unlike MBL


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



reece55 said:


> Cheers Joe, it's been a dramatic fall out.....
> 
> I expected some fairly heavy selling, but MBL is where it was some two years ago in four weeks. I was expecting 70 as a first target, not 62. I also expected it would take a lot longer! Still, it's not the heaviest sold of investment bank - BNB and AFG have actually fared worse, and I much prefer BNB model from an operational perspective from MBL's.....
> 
> Interestingly, MBL have been the only ones not saying a thing about their exposure to the liquidity crisis - any rally IMO is a selling op, I would have thought there is more bad news to come from the "house that debt built"!
> 
> All the best guys, difficult trading conditions for anyone but the short seller ATM.
> 
> Cheers




I couldn't agree more.

The house that debt built.

Enclosed is a chart showing previous support and resistance in the low 40 level.

I wouldn't be surprised if it tested that again in the next few weeks.

Garpal


----------



## Ken

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

I think MBL will be a mess around $58 to $65 untill it builds again.

$40 out of MBL will not happen.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Ken said:


> I think MBL will be a mess around $58 to $65 untill it builds again.
> 
> $40 out of MBL will not happen.




I bet you a meat pie it does. Its a debt play. Debt is not fashonable at present. It has inflated assets and overpaid staff. I like mine with peas.

Garpal


----------



## Ken

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

You're on.

Just a steak meat pie.

No sheppards pie.

If MBL goes to $40 you should be shorting it.

Are you currently shorting MBL? I think there is too much support around $60.00.

If it breaks down through $55 then $40 is more likely... cause theres no support at $50 or $45.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Ken said:


> You're on.
> 
> Just a steak meat pie.
> 
> No sheppards pie.
> 
> If MBL goes to $40 you should be shorting it.
> 
> Are you currently shorting MBL? I think there is too much support around $60.00.
> 
> If it breaks down through $55 then $40 is more likely... cause theres no support at $50 or $45.




After watching London this evening and the first 1/2 hour of NY tonight and djia and ftse heading north it looks like I may have to buy you that pie. Lets see how it pans out.

Garpal


----------



## Ken

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Well I need it cause I got MBL at $62 and sold out.

But the market is a funny place.  There is no way the gains will hold on the US. 

The market was up 600 points effectively in 2 days.

Thats some monster profits they will be taking.

But I do believe we are fairly close to bottom.  

The effects of the sell off could mean when volatility stops the stocks ma drift back down a little.

Everyone is bargain hunting now but if the market rockets back up past 6000, you would think we are just in for more big sell offs...

All in all the volatility has spooked a lot of people.  

I think the problem is real. As small miners will struggle to float companies now as it would suggust with AXE being over subscribed heavily but falling by 60%.

Adelaide uranium company has cancelled its float.

The market needs to settle, so dont over pay for the stocks that have fallen.

MBL will probably trade between $60-70 for a while.  

Much like RIO traded between $70-$80.

Who knows?  But not much has really changed. The housing problem in the US has been known for a while, the media have done a big job of ramping it.

If the market fell for no reason then it wouldn't be the stock market.

The media have to write something....


----------



## Mofra

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



reece55 said:


> Interestingly, MBL have been the only ones not saying a thing about their exposure to the liquidity crisis - any rally IMO is a selling op, I would have thought there is more bad news to come from the "house that debt built"!



reece55,

There is a simple reason why they wont comment on their exposure to the liquidity crisis. 

They don't know.

Their overseas mortgage operations are safe (they do not offer low docs outside of Oz) and their existing securitised mortgage book in Aust. (AUS $20b+) is protected, as you have alluded to in earlier posts it is their ability to raise capital & conduct M&A that will be the primary activity curtailed by the recent volitility.

Basically, their fall has been very much a speculative one, the market guessing what the likely impact will be. With so much debt funding either complete or effectiovely passed on to investors, the short term picture doesn't seem anywhere near as gloomy as one would think. The medium term picture is where the interest lies.

Not often MBL is considered a yield play...


----------



## reece55

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



Mofra said:


> reece55,
> 
> There is a simple reason why they wont comment on their exposure to the liquidity crisis.
> 
> They don't know.
> 
> Their overseas mortgage operations are safe (they do not offer low docs outside of Oz) and their existing securitised mortgage book in Aust. (AUS $20b+) is protected, as you have alluded to in earlier posts it is their ability to raise capital & conduct M&A that will be the primary activity curtailed by the recent volitility.
> 
> Basically, their fall has been very much a speculative one, the market guessing what the likely impact will be. With so much debt funding either complete or effectiovely passed on to investors, the short term picture doesn't seem anywhere near as gloomy as one would think. The medium term picture is where the interest lies.
> 
> Not often MBL is considered a yield play...




Hi Mofra......

I'm more worried about their exposure to their trading arm.... Per their annual report, they 15.5 Bil held as trading assets - that's 2x net equity. In addition, they say Maximum daily value at risk is 15.22 Mil - however, this of course is based on 95% of market conditions - so my question is that in a situation that has occurred where we have conditions that are essentially black swan events happening all over the world, how have they fared? One stat I draw your attention to is the notional amount of their derivative contracts outstanding - $0.8 Billion Dollars AUD in March 07- a wrong move here could be deadly! Surely by now they know how they have fared in relation to trading instruments (in fact, they should be able to mark to market it on a daily basis). Or are they having problems mark-to-marketing their books because some of their investments no longer have a liquid market.

I think that if you review the chart, you will see that something is fundamentally wrong here. Is this a correction for MBL, or the beginning of a downtrend? In reference to your yield play comment, is it really a yield play if net profit is down 30% next FY, which it could very well be (especially if there are any impairment issues)? As the payout ratio is fixed (or relatively fixed), this would mean that the yield really would be exactly what it was at $90 at our now deflated price of $60.

I am also thinking about the medium term and the medium term is that debt is going to be a hell of a lot more expensive. Cheap debt and hot equity markets are what have made MBL a good (paper profit) business - lets see how the model lasts in the conditions we will be exposed to over the next couple of years.

Put it to you this way - if it rallies to above or about $75, I will be shorting the *&^* out of the stock. Just my independent view however.

All the best


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



reece55 said:


> black swan events



Why oh why is our state's emblem blamed for everything?

Oh I see, bit of revenge for my SA jibe Lol!

Some of these managers need a good taste of Popper if you ask me...


----------



## makybe_05

*MBL*

Hey,
This is my first post on this forum and what I've seen so far it looks like a good place to hang around. Anyway, heres my dilemma. Ive got about $700 saved up through my part time job and i thought that i moswell invest it into the sharemarket seeing that ive had a few good experiences lately and its better than it sitting in the bank. Thing is that i want to sell these shares in at the end of the year for my motorbike. I am thinking Macquarie atm at maybe 68 if i can get it that low??. Just wondering what everyones thoughts are. Thanks so much in advance too by the way, glad that theres a few people that i can bounce some ideas off. 

Also if i was to buy macquarie bank what do you think i should set my buying price at? Ive had a look at the market depth and by what ive seen it looks like it might be heading in the north direction again tomorrow, or i could just be completely wrong.


----------



## Nyden

*Re: MBL*



makybe_05 said:


> Hey,
> This is my first post on this forum and what I've seen so far it looks like a good place to hang around. Anyway, heres my dilemma. Ive got about $700 saved up through my part time job and i thought that i moswell invest it into the sharemarket seeing that ive had a few good experiences lately and its better than it sitting in the bank. Thing is that i want to sell these shares in at the end of the year for my motorbike. I am thinking Macquarie atm at maybe 68 if i can get it that low??. Just wondering what everyones thoughts are. Thanks so much in advance too by the way, glad that theres a few people that i can bounce some ideas off.
> 
> Also if i was to buy macquarie bank what do you think i should set my buying price at? Ive had a look at the market depth and by what ive seen it looks like it might be heading in the north direction again tomorrow, or i could just be completely wrong.




Since you only have $700, and it's taken you a while to save that up - I would certainly advise in keeping it out of the market at the moment. Especially since (at least I believe?) you're inexperienced.

$700 into a relatively safe stock won't make you a lot of money, especially within a few months; even with current volatility, and at the moment, a spec (risky) stock is probably too risky.

Even if you manage to make 30% in a matter of months, your brokerage fees & tax would eat a lot of that up, as you're investing with a low amount.

Personally, I would keep the $700 in a savings account; at least until the market settles down, & you have a little more to invest.



But, it's great that you're thinking ahead, & saving for something you want!


----------



## makybe_05

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Yea thanks for the advice. I think I'm going to buy say 10 MBL shares in the next couple of days. Ive got about $1000 worth of QBE, and I'm extremely pleased after todays profit results. Any other stocks that you would recommend?


----------



## Mofra

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



reece55 said:


> Hi Mofra......
> 
> I'm more worried about their exposure to their trading arm.... Per their annual report, they 15.5 Bil held as trading assets - that's 2x net equity. In addition, they say Maximum daily value at risk is 15.22 Mil - however, this of course is based on 95% of market conditions - so my question is that in a situation that has occurred where we have conditions that are essentially black swan events happening all over the world, how have they fared? One stat I draw your attention to is the notional amount of their derivative contracts outstanding - $0.8 Billion Dollars AUD in March 07- a wrong move here could be deadly! Surely by now they know how they have fared in relation to trading instruments (in fact, they should be able to mark to market it on a daily basis). Or are they having problems mark-to-marketing their books because some of their investments no longer have a liquid market.
> 
> I think that if you review the chart, you will see that something is fundamentally wrong here. Is this a correction for MBL, or the beginning of a downtrend? In reference to your yield play comment, is it really a yield play if net profit is down 30% next FY, which it could very well be (especially if there are any impairment issues)? As the payout ratio is fixed (or relatively fixed), this would mean that the yield really would be exactly what it was at $90 at our now deflated price of $60.
> 
> I am also thinking about the medium term and the medium term is that debt is going to be a hell of a lot more expensive. Cheap debt and hot equity markets are what have made MBL a good (paper profit) business - lets see how the model lasts in the conditions we will be exposed to over the next couple of years.
> 
> Put it to you this way - if it rallies to above or about $75, I will be shorting the *&^* out of the stock. Just my independent view however.
> 
> All the best




Howdy Reece,

Fair points - structure wise, the outstanding derivative contracts include hedging activity (the $15.22m at risk funds are the net risk from their trading activities after derivative positions are considered). As for not knowing the full impact of the recent volitility, this is more in relation to their system of asset valuation determining mangement fees drawn from subsidieries - up to date asset valuations would be cumbersome if done on such a regular basis. Treasury would know about positions & funds at risk up to the minute.

I still like the business model overall, yes there could be difficult times ahead but their core business is in reality risk transferance which can still profit in difficult market conditions. As for the yield play comments, no it was not a serious comment (three dots used to denote irony) but I'm sure the "click on commsec reserach, look at the PE & Div Yield, buy" crowd would be rubbing their hands together with glee.

Cheers


----------



## barnz2k

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



makybe_05 said:


> Yea thanks for the advice. I think I'm going to buy say 10 MBL shares in the next couple of days. Ive got about $1000 worth of QBE, and I'm extremely pleased after todays profit results. Any other stocks that you would recommend?




Id have to agree with Nyden. Though If you'd bought on Friday you might have made almost 10% yesterday , but its still crazy at the moment. Dual anns, 1 on either side - that another of their investments was hit, but new plans for funding helped the big recovery. So still going either way now. Of course I hope it goes straight up as im below my entry point now, but be cautious..

Example, currently Stgeorge is offering 6% on their dragon direct account - no term deposists, no fees etc. not much but better than nothing or negative.


----------



## 56gsa

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

is this an inverted H&S???  although with descending neckline probably not to be trusted  - could see a run to the 78-79 resistance - if high volume breakthough at that level then MBL may have turned?


from http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/head_and_shoulders.htm

*Inverted Head and Shoulders*

With inverted head and shoulders the neckline is drawn through the highest points of the two intervening peaks. A downward sloping neckline signals continuing weakness and is less reliable as a reversal signal.

The extent of the breakout move can be estimated by measuring from the top of the middle trough up to the neckline. This target is then projected upwards from the point of breakout.

Volume Confirmation
High volume on the first trough, 
Moderate volume on the second trough, 
High volume on the second peak, 
Low volume on the third trough, and 
A sharp increase in volume at the breakout. 

Trading Signals
Go long at breakout above the neckline. 
Place a stop-loss one tick below the last trough.

There is frequently a correction back to the neckline, which then acts as a support level. Go long on a reversal signal and place a stop-loss one tick below the support level.

Never trust an inverted head and shoulders pattern where the neckline is clearly descending (the second peak being lower than the first). The more level the neckline, the more reliable the pattern.


----------



## Fab

*MBL*

I am not sure if there is an existing thread on MBL as I could not find one when doing a search (surprising so). Please merge if this is the case.
MBL looks surprisingly cheap at current level. Recommendation from ABNAMRO remains at $110. It is currently trading at $77. There is a large possible upside there. I am wondering if anyone has done any technical analysis on this stock and how it looks like in the short term. Looking at some CFD trading on it.


----------



## zt3000

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

MBL From low of $70 on the 10th sept has moved to nearly $84 today. 18.5% gain.

Are we due for a "breather" before the next bolt? 

Technical and Fundamental analysis welcome  Thanks


----------



## shares

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

has anyone else received the 'explanatory memorandum'?

"proposal to restructure the macquarie group which will result in a new non operating holding company macquarie group limited becmong the ultimate listed parent entity of the group"

it is a 200 page restructure booklet outlining key issues surrounding the restructure. 1 current mbl share (record date 12 Nov) will equal 1 macquarie group limited share if the memorandum is passed.


----------



## barnz2k

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

If i have been sent it I wont see it cause im overseas..
This could be good or play havoc on the share price.
Would "MGL" then encompass more of their divisions or something?


----------



## Awesomandy

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

The restructure is basically to get around the current regulations that it has to have a certain amount of capital on the balance sheet before it can make acquisitions. Just think of it as MBL borrowing money to buy itself. There's nothing to worry about, really. If MBL was based overseas in the first place, the regulations there would mean they don't need to do this to get around the Australian regulations.


----------



## zt3000

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

"The Millionaries Factory" - Have a look at the video

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=538533100&play=1


----------



## stoxclimber

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

at the moment, its the millionaires factory for the shareholders as well as the board [although not so if you bought in at 95 before the correction]


----------



## mime

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*

Stocks been removed. Does anyone know what's going on? Is there some big news? I wonder what the future brings.


----------



## reece55

*Re: MBL - Macquarie Bank*



mime said:


> Stocks been removed. Does anyone know what's going on? Is there some big news? I wonder what the future brings.




Change of code mate... try MQG, or the Macquarie Group.....

Due to the corporate restructure.

Cheers


----------



## doctorj

I've changed the subject to reflect the new name/code of 'MQG - Macquaire Group.  Thanks for the heads up.


----------



## Spineli

Hi,

I'm a little confused as to the break up of Macquarie into A) Macquarie Group (comprising its corporate finance, investment banking groups, and specialist funds)...B) Macquarie Bank (containing all its other operations)

This morning at 10am, both MBL and MQG opened at $82.25 or thereabouts. MQG fell $4.30 (about 5%) to $79.80 after listing (with a volume of 1.8mil shares traded), whereas MBL shares traded steady at $82.30 (with a volume of 12,000 shares traded).

Why was the new MGQ stock listed at the same closing price as the previous stock and what differences lie in trading MGQ as opposed to the (previous MBL)?


----------



## stoxclimber

The MBL trades were option exercise.

There is no more MBL. Every MBL holder was given 1 share of MQG for each MBL share. There is only MQG.


----------



## transit

Does anyone know how to edit the code from MBL to MQG in commsec? Or do i need to ring Commsec and ask them to do it?


----------



## Fab

transit said:


> Does anyone know how to edit the code from MBL to MQG in commsec? Or do i need to ring Commsec and ask them to do it?




Looks like MBL is still trading.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/macgroup-cops-all-the-heat/2007/11/05/1194117959181.html


----------



## stoxclimber

You'll be moved automatically.

It's not still trading. Financial journalists are full of........But if you go look at SEATS right now, it's pretty clear that it's not trading.


----------



## M34N

According to E*Trade, you can trade MGQ shares as MBL shares, so if you had MBL shares before the company transfered across to MGQ, you can actually execute a sell using the new code and it will execute. Would most likely be the same across all trading websites, but don't take my word for it, check with them first.

Anyway, on other news, anyone expecting good news from MGQ regarding there results due out this Tuesday 13th Nov? Wonder how the market will take it if the results are anything less than $1 billion for the 2nd half.


----------



## Pager

Like other financials it has been overdone, picked some up late last week at just over $79, reports tomorrow i think.

If todays rise in its price is anything to go by it may be a goody , not that insider trading happens on the ASX , as we all saw when Rio was up over a $1 the day before BHP announced its takover plans, funny how everything else got smashed that day though


----------



## M34N

Pager said:


> Like other financials it has been overdone, picked some up late last week at just over $79, reports tomorrow i think.
> 
> If todays rise in its price is anything to go by it may be a goody , not that insider trading happens on the ASX , as we all saw when Rio was up over a $1 the day before BHP announced its takover plans, funny how everything else got smashed that day though



Was thinking something similar, notice the trend occurred on Friday as well when it was up 3% as well... could be partly explained by a nice rebound in US financials on Friday despite the overall negativeness. Noticed it followed NAB up when they reported good results on Thursday, so it may just be optimistic buying by investors hoping for some good news in the financial sector for once more so than insider trading.

And yes it reports tomorrow. Been waiting a while for the results, I'm tipping a solid result.


----------



## Julia

This morning I still had MBL appearing on my p/f page but this evening it has been deleted.  No replacement with MQG and the total value of all shares is down accordingly.  Anyone else finding this with E-trade?
Phone call to them this morning elicited the info that it will all be sorted by 19th November.  Not sure how I'd go if I wanted to sell it before then!


----------



## barnz2k

Mine now has MQG listed but doesnt seem to have quite cleared yet, hasn't got all the values. Not 100% where I stand but I think im just down from entry, crap.


----------



## nick2fish

MQG has appeared on E Trade pf but it won't have your original buy price just 0.00 , so save yourself a phone call and go to Detailed View - then at the tools for that stock pick edit and put your original buy or average buy price


----------



## resourceboom

thanks for the info nick, as I needed that knowledge to fix up the old SMSF e trade account.  cheers mate


----------



## nick2fish

your welcome, but you might want to exit as those chumps at goldman sachs just give MQG the big downgrade ...they should keep a closer eye on the on their own turf....(City Bank,Countrywide,Merrill Lynch and the like)....Oh well the shame about it is people actually listen to these rich kids. I'm hanging on Go MQG


----------



## Timoshev

ABN Amro Craigs (NZ) still have  a target price of $110.  Feel recent acquisitiosn sheow funding for good assets still available and they they are cashed up and ready for more.  They rate risk to projected 08 earnings to be upside and despite volatility linked to finacial sector performance they are well diversified and actualy not so strongly correlated.  Very happy to hold...


----------



## nick2fish

I have 3 brokers saying average targets over $100.00 per share and only early this year was knocking on the door as the first axa stock to pass the 100 mark.... Since then.. sub prime.. when it was presumed guilty and despite proving emphatically very minimal financial loss and reporting back to back profit gains remains out of favor. It will hit it straps soon and now is probably...in its new restructured mode... quite happy to fly under the radar for a bit.


----------



## Trader Paul

Hi folks,

MQG ..... restructuring has provided a rare opportunity to find what
companies they are investing in, without wading through a lot of
unwanted details:

NMS Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BLY Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
TDO Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BSG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MAP Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BBI Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MCW Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
SKI Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
RPX Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
NWK Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
ILF Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
PRU Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
PMA Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
ARR Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
ADU Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BJT Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
DML Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
TSO Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
GMG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
DXL Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
HYO Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
SFY Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
GCG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
CFK Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
AAQ Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
CNP Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
SPN Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
RCY Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
AEZ Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MMG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
ENV Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MPG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BVA Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
DSQ Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MOF Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MCQ Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MLE Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
GGE Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BLU Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
TGF Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MCG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MGR Change in substantial holding from MQG
BUR Change in substantial holding from MQG
GRD Becoming a substantial holder from MQG

have a great weekend

      paul



=====


----------



## The Mint Man

Just had a look at MQG, was at $75.15. 
With the santa rally, it will be interesting to see where to from here over the next couple of months. Also got a 145c div in Jan.
Good buying at these prices IMO. 

Cheers

EDIT: Ok, in the time I wrote this message it went back to $75.70:


----------



## The Mint Man

Sorry people, I obviously gave my opinion a bit too late because it didn't stick around those levels too long. I'm actually a bit surprised at MQG's movement today considering it was a red day on the market.
I got in at $75.50 so I'm pleased that it finished up at $78.20 wasn't expecting that, but I'll take it anyway. As I said in the last post, it will be interesting to see where to from here.
I noticed that a couple of you (nick2fish, Timoshev) have mentioned that a few brokers have a target of over $100 for MQG, is that still the case? and where can I see this?

Cheers


----------



## YELNATS

The Mint Man said:


> With the santa rally, it will be interesting to see where to from here over the next couple of months. Also got a 145c div in Jan.
> 
> Good buying at these prices IMO.
> 
> I noticed that a couple of you (nick2fish, Timoshev) have mentioned that a few brokers have a target of over $100 for MQG, is that still the case? and where can I see this?
> 
> Cheers




Be nice if it happens. But when brokers provide forecasts such as these they don't seem to nominate the date by which they think these prices will be reached. Or do they, am I missing something in interpreting such forecasts?

Re the santa rally, will we be having one this year?


----------



## M34N

The Mint Man said:


> Sorry people, I obviously gave my opinion a bit too late because it didn't stick around those levels too long. I'm actually a bit surprised at MQG's movement today considering it was a red day on the market.
> I got in at $75.50 so I'm pleased that it finished up at $78.20 wasn't expecting that, but I'll take it anyway. As I said in the last post, it will be interesting to see where to from here.
> I noticed that a couple of you (nick2fish, Timoshev) have mentioned that a few brokers have a target of over $100 for MQG, is that still the case? and where can I see this?
> 
> Cheers




Yes I tend to agree. I have a batch of MQG at $78.50 (from a week ago) and today's performance was good, very happy to hold for the dividend. Notice the swing today was from $75.02 at the lowest to $78.20; it closed at a day high too with some strong buying at the close.

I have also read similar price targets, I actually remember reading one a while back for $110, but I don't think it will go much further than $85 or near there for the near term, noticing a fair bit of resistance around $83-84 at the high points and around $75 for the low points lately. Guess it depends on the DOW and how the credit crisis pans out for the long term price though.


----------



## Timoshev

Mint Man,  the $110 figure comes from ABN Amro Craigs in NZ.  They had them at $115 until early August when they dropped the target to $110.  Latest revision/confirmation of $110 target by them was 14 November.

In ABN's view the MBL outlook statement for Y08 was "subdued" and overshadowed a strong result. I believe typically MBL/MQG have a preference / tendancy to understate and over deliver.  ABN went on the say that although short term market volatility may have some impact MQG are cashed up and well placed to make "boutique acquisitions" and develop longer term earnings.

As far as I know MBL have indicated that their exposure to US sub-prime issues is minor.  Will be interesting to see what pickings they might take over the over next 6 -12 months.

I'm in for the long term and not too bothered about short term fluctuations.


----------



## The Mint Man

YELNATS said:


> Be nice if it happens. But when brokers provide forecasts such as these they don't seem to nominate the date by which they think these prices will be reached. Or do they, am I missing something in interpreting such forecasts?
> Re the santa rally, will we be having one this year?



True they don’t usually say when. As for the santa rally, I was reading an article on the days trading in the US on yahoo this morning, it was saying that they have reached a correction of 10% since October, also he pointed out that the US federal reserve will put $8 bil in the US market this week, Hopefully that will help the US along its way and in turn make the Australian markets even stronger.
Heres some snips from that article:


> Yahoo finance
> Monday November 26, 6:20 pm ET
> By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
> The Dow's decline from its mid-October closing high is now 10.03 percent, putting the blue chip index past the 10 percent threshold that signifies a correction........
> The Fed said it would inject $8 billion into the banking system on Wednesday. The amount of money is somewhat larger than in past years at this time......
> The Fed's decision to inject liquidity into the market isn't unusual for this time of year. Last year, the Fed added a net $21.9 billion into the system from the Monday following Thanksgiving until the first week of January.
> Lee Adler, publisher of The Wall Street Examiner, said the overall level of recent liquidity injections is consistent with past years....



click here to read more http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071126/wall_street.html?.v=45



> Yes I tend to agree. I have a batch of MQG at $78.50 (from a week ago) and today's performance was good, very happy to hold for the dividend. Notice the swing today was from $75.02 at the lowest to $78.20; it closed at a day high too with some strong buying at the close.



Yeh I will be holding for the divy, and the swing was incredible IMO. I thought I had got in at the wrong time when I bought at $75.5 today because immediately after it dropped to the very low $75's, and I mean straight after! Big movements in short time today.



> As far as I know MBL have indicated that their exposure to US sub-prime issues is minor.



This is true, they are hardly affected.

Thanks for the reply guys.

Cheers


----------



## The Mint Man

MQG going berserk today, 5% up at the moment.
Volume is also very high at over *2,200,000* in just the first hour of trade. Just to compare, the average for the last 5 days was just 1,891,889

Going very well indeed!

Cheers


----------



## tronic72

*Re: MQG - Macquarie Group... Pushing 6%*



The Mint Man said:


> MQG going berserk today, 5% up at the moment.
> Volume is also very high at over *2,200,000* in just the first hour of trade. Just to compare, the average for the last 5 days was just 1,891,889
> 
> Going very well indeed!
> 
> Cheers




MIG is Pushing 6% today. I'm happy because got in at 2.90. Anyone know what's going on?? I suspected the stock was undervalued but this is a bit full on for normal trading.

Edit: 6.1%

Edit2: 6.79%


----------



## Fab

Finally MQG seems to be bouncing back strongly. Looked pretty cheap recently and if you believe their previous annoucement they won't be affected by subprime therefore it should go much higher I believe


----------



## The Mint Man

Fab said:


> Finally MQG seems to be bouncing back strongly. Looked pretty cheap recently and if you believe their previous annoucement they won't be affected by subprime therefore it should go much higher I believe



Did you mean lower?
I think that MQG is still well priced and we should see it sail further north following some good news from the US Fed tomorrow, hopefully 1/2% cut but either way its shaping up to be good news. I know that sub prime does not affect MQG's assets but the problem is that it has been affecting their share price recently so any good news on the financial sector is good news for MQG. In fact I believe they should perform better on the back of good news than other financials purely because they have said that they are not affected by sub prime... theres nothing holding them back!

Cheers


----------



## The Mint Man

Fab]Looked pretty cheap recently and if you believe their previous annoucement they won't be affected by subprime therefore it should go much higher I believe.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=The Mint Man said:


> Did you mean lower?



Never mind me I obviously read the last part wrong... I thought it said 'shouldn't go much higher' hence my confusion.
And yes, I too believe it should go much higher.

Cheers


----------



## The Mint Man

This ann out today, yet another nice little earner for MQG on the side



> *CONSORTIUM TO ACQUIRE HOBART INTERNATIONAL
> AIRPORT*​SYDNEY, 13 December 2007 – Macquarie Group Limited (“Macquarie”) notes the attached release in relation to the acquisition of Hobart International Airport Pty Limited by Tasmanian Gateway Consortium (the “Consortium”).
> Macquarie has taken a 20% equity investment in the Consortium. Macquarie notes the impact on Macquarie Group’s capital position is not expected to be material.
> 
> *TASMANIAN GATEWAY CONSORTIUM TO ACQUIRE HOBART
> INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT​*SYDNEY, 13 December 2007 – Tasmanian Gateway Consortium (“TGC”) today
> announced that it has signed an agreement with Tasmanian Ports Corporation Pty Limited to acquire 100% of Hobart International Airport Pty Limited (“Hobart Airport”) for $350.5 million.
> Hobart Airport is Tasmania’s principal airport and serves the State’s most populous city.
> The airport has well established infrastructure links providing convenient access to the City of Hobart.
> TGC’s vision is to grow and develop Hobart Airport’s principal airport status, maintaining a safe and secure airport environment.
> TGC will operate Hobart Airport in a manner that delivers value and quality service to customers.
> It will explore a range of potential new initiatives that have been identified to meet passenger and airline needs, including airline marketing, retail expansion in the newly redeveloped terminal, further terminal expansions in future, and increased car parking options.
> TGC comprises Macquarie Global Infrastructure Fund III (“GIF III”), Macquarie Capital Group Limited and Retirement Benefits Fund Board (“RBF”). GIF III is a diversified infrastructure fund investing in infrastructure and infrastructure-like assets. Macquarie Capital Group is a wholly owned subsidiary of Macquarie Group Limited. RBF is Tasmania’s largest public sector superannuation fund with approximately $3.5 billion in funds under management.
> TGC looks forward to managing the airport for the benefit of passengers, airlines and other airport stakeholders.




I think today was yet another good buying opp for MQG with market weakness. MQG is still cheap ATM

Cheers


----------



## son of baglimit

surely flying scientists to antartica doesnt make hobart an INTERNATIONAL airport............ya gotta love spin.


----------



## shinobi346

Anyone want to give some insight on why MAP, the airport arm of the Macquarie Bank wasn't involved? I would have thought with their experience in managing airports that MQG would have brought them to the table as well.


----------



## Timoshev

Since:
(a) MQG have the cash to pick up cheap assets during the current sub prime "crisis" and
(b) their restructure is presumably beneficial in the medium - long term.

Would I be correct to anticpate that there's a very good chance we (holders) could be quite happy - maybe mid to late 2008?


----------



## dastrix

All quiet on this front? some big drops considering they claim not to be affected too much by the subprime..

Any recommendations?


----------



## nick2fish

This sell off of MQG is not based on any adverse economic facts about the company. Its just a stampede of money out of the sharemarket and margin calls going off. I thought the Dow might bounce last night .... now it looks serious. MQG at $70.00 very possible over the next couple of days which would bring the companies value to within $10.00 of CBA, which to me is just crazy valuation. Maybe someone can explain the hits MQG are taking, I can't but I'm new to this,... and what a great learning oportuninty it is at the moment    Anyway I'm like most brokers overweight and holding:


----------



## dastrix

Yep, dow down, everyone down. Not really a reflection of the company, but still some massive drops considering the news/eureka and so on suggest 08 prices above $100 per share.

I'm wanting to get in.. i wonder how low it will go!


----------



## The Mint Man

If I wasn't already in I would be getting in today. Only a week ago MQG was $82.60 and some would still call that cheap, today they hit $73.22 representing an 11% drop over a week.
If the US bounces overnight then MQG has quite a bit of ground to make up, strong companies like MQG don't drop like this and stay there!
DYOR


----------



## dastrix

I hear ya, but why do you suspect a bounce? theres been no good news concerning the US markets.... if anything I'd be betting on a slide even further... Its timing the buy thats difficult. I know MQG are quality.


----------



## M34N

Finished not too far off a day low, considering the market rebounded 2% from its lows today, MQG always gets unnecessarily hammered every time the word "recession" and "sub prime" come up in the US, kind of funny when I think even Goldman Sachs and even Citi were *up* in US trading overnight, and most of our banks up today! Similar story for NAB too, anything negative to do with the US and everyone pushes the panic button.

FYI I pulled out of this at a small profit earlier last week at $79.90, thinking about re-buying in anticipation of a Dow rally/rebound for Christmas and holding for the dividend in mid-January.


----------



## nick2fish

*Re: MQG - Acquire Group*

Your words are right on the money (or lack of) there. I sold all my specs which weren't hit too hard anyway and whacked it on good old hard hit MQG. But you know I think Its gonna be whacked again tomorrow... I have got to detach emotionally from my fav stocks .... They have the finest financial minds in the industry...Have washed their hands of sub prime negative impact...Made the step up from bank to group to free funds to invest...Multi national exposure (not confined just to good old USA) and now in free-fall. My initial estimate of $65.00 might be right ... I hope not, for now is the time when all investors should be looking at how much is it going to cost to get back in. The moneys in the bank.. which bank????????


----------



## The Mint Man

Great gain today, up 4%. Just goes to show that you cant keep a good stock down Seriously though, the more I thought about it lately the more I came to the conclusion that MQG would come back like a champion once we had a good day that allowed it. 
Even if it did go under $70 I don't think it would have lasted long, that would be an extremely good price and everyone would be scrambling to buy.
By the way, congratulations to the guys that bought in the $72's the other day

Now back to $80+ a share

Cheers


----------



## tronic72

The Mint Man said:


> Great gain today, up over 4% just goes to show that you cant keep a good stock down Seriously though, the more I thought about it lately the more I came to the conclusion that MQG would come back like a champion once we had a good day that allowed it.
> Even if it did go under $70 I don't think it would have lasted long, that would be an extremely good price and everyone would be scrambling to buy.
> By the way, congratulations to the guys that bought in the $72's the other day
> 
> Now back to $80+ a share
> 
> Cheers




Thanks 

I got mine at 73 which is good enough. I also got Allco Finance at 5.5 which is my stock of the month. I'd sold it only a week ago at 7.25 after buying it for 6.5 (also a good price at the time).

I've seen it happen so many times, where good stocks gets creamed because another stock, of similar nature does something silly or gets it's self into $hit. As well as getting MQG and AFG I also got ANZ at 26.65 which I consider a decent price. It's at yearly lows and I simply can't figure out why "solid" financials are being hammered.

Must be the fear factor. 

Unfortunately even after all this I'm still down for the month. Knocked nearly 5% of my capital (2% RULE 2% Rule......idiot). I just hope we'll get a similar turn around to what we got in August, otherwise I just purchased a heap of new shares for nothing.

Merry Christmas All!


----------



## Julia

tronic72 said:


> Thanks
> 
> 
> I've seen it happen so many times, where good stocks gets creamed because another stock, of similar nature does something silly or gets it's self into $hit. As well as getting MQG and AFG I also got ANZ at 26.65 which I consider a decent price. It's at yearly lows and I simply can't figure out why "solid" financials are being hammered.
> 
> Must be the fear factor.



Tronic, possibly a reflection of the level of exposure to Centro.  CBA has the greatest and when I last looked today it was still down.


----------



## The Mint Man

Julia said:


> Tronic, possibly a reflection of the level of exposure to Centro.  CBA has the greatest and when I last looked today it was still down.




True, however Centro is just one of many investments MQG holds or should I say did hold. Like they say, **** happens!
Nothing to get real worried about IMO

cheers


----------



## tronic72

Julia said:


> Tronic, possibly a reflection of the level of exposure to Centro.  CBA has the greatest and when I last looked today it was still down.




I agree. This is why I think it's going to be unlikly that Centro will be left to fall. If it does it's going to bring many other institutions down with it.

On the other hand I DO think Centro management have a case to answer for. I posted an article that there's a class action being put together against them (or lawsuit of some sort).


----------



## ROE

It way down today and I'm not touching it
I don't know what you guys see in Macquarie.

The way I see MacBank makes it money.. Buy inflated asset (like Centro, and maybe that why they like centro, like mind think alike..)
but MacBank is smarter cos these guys may have uni degreee hahaha 

so they buy these asset with nothing but debt, then flock it off to investors
in fund like MAP etc.. so the debt stay with the fund and not on MacBank book, so Mac Book look Mac Clean another smarter move. 

In bull market and debt is cheap, these funds may perform super well and make super fees for the Mac Bank.

What happen when debt is no longer cheap? price of these funds start to stand still or drop? hmmm

too complex sh*t for me to understand


----------



## M34N

ROE said:


> It way down today and I'm not touching it
> I don't know what you guys see in Macquarie.
> 
> The way I see MacBank makes it money.. Buy inflated asset (like Centro, and maybe that why they like centro, like mind think alike..)
> but MacBank is smarter cos these guys may have uni degreee hahaha
> 
> so they buy these asset with nothing but debt, then flock it off to investors
> in fund like MAP etc.. so the debt stay with the fund and not on MacBank book, so Mac Book look Mac Clean another smarter move.
> 
> In bull market and debt is cheap, these funds may perform super well and make super fees for the Mac Bank.
> 
> What happen when debt is no longer cheap? price of these funds start to stand still or drop? hmmm
> 
> too complex sh*t for me to understand



Well the amount of money they pay on interest on money that they borrow from other banks becomes dearer, much dearer, and that eats into their profits. Lower profits, lower dividends, lower share price...

That's the simple answer really. It just makes it very hard for them to invest, and do what they do, so people are unwilling to loan them money, or invest in their company.

It's actually fairing better than the likes of AFG and BNB actually, but only just. Personally investing in this type of company at this time is madness, and I wouldn't expect to see any upside potential for many, many months, maybe even years.


----------



## ROE

M34N said:


> Well the amount of money they pay on interest on money that they borrow from other banks becomes dearer, much dearer, and that eats into their profits. Lower profits, lower dividends, lower share price...
> 
> That's the simple answer really. It just makes it very hard for them to invest, and do what they do, so people are unwilling to loan them money, or invest in their company.
> 
> It's actually fairing better than the likes of AFG and BNB actually, but only just. Personally investing in this type of company at this time is madness, and I wouldn't expect to see any upside potential for many, many months, maybe even years.




It a figure of speech  about too complex sh*t for me to understand as in I wont buy it ...

Sometimes last year on the way home I think it was on ABC radio when people start to question MacBank model.. Can it work under a credit crunch environment?

All MacBank ever know was cheap debt in a bull market and rising share price and haven't been though a bust scenario.

Alan Moss came out defending the model saying how bad can it get before people switching their Foxtel off (as in they control the transmission tower), before people stop using toll road etc...

I say it will be soon hahaha and when a CEO has to defend it so hard you know something is up. 

People who ask those questions I want to know them , these are smart people who look behind the scene and see what craw under the beds.


----------



## M34N

ROE said:


> It a figure of speech  about too complex sh*t for me to understand as in I wont buy it ...



Ah, that went straight over my head! Sorry its been a real long day lol 

Shame, it's a good company though, in any other time I would love to hold this but any company that even deals with money is getting pummeled lol


----------



## Buffettology

Like was said in another thread, the only stock I would short is MQG!  

Though, BBC and BOL might have been good ideas also!


----------



## Fab

Hi,

I am wondering when MQG is supposed to report so at least we might get a proper trend as it looks like the market is pushing MQG down.


----------



## ROE

I'm a skeptical person of this stock and I am even more critical now. 

Big boss going out with a bang I wonder why, or like I always said. Their model only works in cheap credit and bull market. 

Both have ended so maybe it's time to leave too before he get voted out 

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23168105-462,00.html


----------



## barnz2k

but suspected 23% profit increase - surely that would bring some upside?
he is 60, hes retiring. not like hes jumping ship on big losses like the banks have been doing


----------



## Junior

2nd half earnings to 31 March 08 are expected to be in line with 2nd half 07....sounds pretty positive considering what's transpired in that period.


----------



## The Mint Man

barnz2k said:


> but suspected 23% profit increase - surely that would bring some upside?
> he is 60, hes retiring. not like hes jumping ship on big losses like the banks have been doing



I fully agree. 
ROE is a self confesed 'skeptical person' so obviously some bias here. I suppose you said the same thing about Roger Corbett when he left WOW?:

Cheers


----------



## ROE

The Mint Man said:


> I fully agree.
> ROE is a self confesed 'skeptical person' so obviously some bias here. I suppose you said the same thing about Roger Corbett when he left WOW?:
> 
> Cheers




No I wouldn't have said that with WOW back then  but I am now of WOW
but then again you probably question my hind insight. 

Remember their half profit is before the crash and the real crunch 
but then again I could be wrong so I may yet to come and regret my decision of not buying MQG at this price.


----------



## ROE

barnz2k said:


> but suspected 23% profit increase - surely that would bring some upside?
> he is 60, hes retiring. not like hes jumping ship on big losses like the banks have been doing




He's not John Howard  should quit when they are ahead ...
they have their reputation to protect 

I'm skeptical person and present an alternative views I could be complete wrong
and go off in a anti-MQG rage


----------



## barnz2k

call me a mum-and-dad investor (i have minimal knowledge) haha, but MQG is just one of those stocks people like me assume will, in the end, go up. If they haven't got anyone who can make money under different circumstances, they can sure as hell afford to pay someone who can!
I still wish I had sold back at $100, but I am long termer and maybe one day it will get back there..


----------



## Buffettology

ROE said:


> I'm skeptical person and present an alternative views I could be complete wrong
> and go off in a anti-MQG rage




hahaha, ROE cracks me up, but most of what he says is right!  

I too, like MQG at this price, but Im still not convinced!  Too bad by the time I am convinced, the price will probably be back at $80!


----------



## doogle

I am convinced...I am in - make a long term invest on this...the US will reduce interest rates more to try and avoid recession our market will edge slowly higher and if I get scared I will bail out and make a small profit on this....sounds simple.


----------



## Buffettology

barnz2k said:


> but suspected 23% profit increase - surely that would bring some upside?




You would think so hey!  I think sentiment is just against this stock at the moment, it appears its bottom line hasnt been hit that hard by this latest credit havoc, but an insider of mine in the banking industry beleives in general that banks are doing worse than expected.


----------



## The Mint Man

Buffettology said:


> hahaha, ROE cracks me up, but most of what he says is right!
> 
> I too, like MQG at this price, but Im still not convinced!  Too bad by the time I am convinced, the price will probably be back at $80!



It really depends on if your short or long on this.... I think there is some short term volatility in this sector in general but lets face it, a company that makes good $$$ wont be held down forever. I think this is what barnz2k was alluding to, as he is obviously long on MQG.


Buffettology said:


> You would think so hey!  I think sentiment is just against this stock at the moment, it appears its bottom line hasnt been hit that hard by this latest credit havoc, but an insider of mine in the banking industry beleives in general that banks are doing worse than expected.



Yeh my local bank teller was saying the same thing but if you think that was bad you should have heard what the ATM told me the other day when i was getting cash out:

Cheers


----------



## ROE

Buffettology said:


> You would think so hey!  I think sentiment is just against this stock at the moment, it appears its bottom line hasnt been hit that hard by this latest credit havoc, but an insider of mine in the banking industry beleives in general that banks are doing worse than expected.




Buffettology you know better than that ....is that is reliable information? 
Only true number tell the stories


----------



## Buffettology

The Mint Man said:


> It really depends on if your short or long on this.... I think there is some short term volatility in this sector in general but lets face it, a company that makes good $$$ wont be held down forever. I think this is what barnz2k was alluding to, as he is obviously long on MQG.
> 
> Yeh my local bank teller was saying the same thing but if you think that was bad you should have heard what the ATM told me the other day when i was getting cash out:
> 
> Cheers




ha ha ha ha ha, this guys trades for himself and is connected with many in the banking industry.  Its been his life (sadly) for 20 years now.  He thinks the credit problem in Australia is bigger than being shown and says quiet a few bankers are loosing their jobs and foreclosures becoming a larger problem than expected.  I would have absolutely no clue about this area and can only take his word for it.  He does tell some tall tales, but he is family and I do know his contacts personally, very very impressive.  

I only ever go long.  Though in this current environment, have been tempted to short.


----------



## Buffettology

ROE said:


> Buffettology you know better than that ....is that is reliable information?
> Only true number tell the stories




True I agree.

Though even the expectation of a record profit I would think would do wonders for the share price of MQG.  It seems to be unfairly hammered at this time.

What does that 111 page PDF released today on the MQG company announcements say?  It keeps freezing every time I try to open it.


----------



## tronic72

Buffettology said:


> True I agree.
> 
> Though even the expectation of a record profit I would think would do wonders for the share price of MQG.  It seems to be unfairly hammered at this time.
> 
> What does that 111 page PDF released today on the MQG company announcements say?  It keeps freezing every time I try to open it.




This is a great buying opportunity IMHO. I've been quietly buying up MQG, BNB & AFG. Once the current borrowing fear disappears, these companies will once again become sought after. Nearly all of these three have one year price targets of at least double their current SP. To top that off, their profits are still high, as are the dividends. Although the assets these companies own or manage may decrease in value they aren't suddenly going to become worthless and as long as management run their business' with the current economic conditions in mind their value will increase in the long term.

I remember buying Telstra when it was a 3.50 and everyone telling me it was a dog. The more people can a share or sector, the more I tend to look at it.


----------



## Buffettology

Tronic, I definately agree in that with this sector being hammered, it can allow a few bargains to be picked up.

I will wait to see where this market goes for now.  But its a stock for the first time in a long time, firmly on my watchlist!

Anyone know when actual results are released?


----------



## The Mint Man

Buffettology said:


> Tronic, I definately agree in that with this sector being hammered, it can allow a few bargains to be picked up.
> 
> I will wait to see where this market goes for now.  But its a stock for the first time in a long time, firmly on my watchlist!
> 
> Anyone know when actual results are released?




This is what I came up with;
2008 
11 November Report (Interim) 
13 May Report (Prelim) 
13 May Report (Annual) 

By the way, good to see some people dont take things to heart as much as others and actually take note of the smilies

cheers


----------



## tronic72

Here's some evidence below that this stock is a good "LONG TERM" investment.

This is when trading becomes hard. It's soooo tempting to NOT buy and SELL, SELL, SELL when prices are being hammered the way they are. I just try to think with my head and not my heart. 


http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gYVD10Fo3vvztZU-kucCVBEjKmHQ

"Australia's Macquarie Bank expects record profit, boss to quit
5 hours ago
*SYDNEY (AFP) — The head of Australia's Macquarie Bank said Wednesday the bank expected a record profit of at least 1.8 billion dollars (1.6 billion US) for the year to March, despite a weaker second half.*
Founding chief executive Allan Moss also announced he will retire in May after 15 years at the helm of the country's leading investment bank, a move that prompted a sharp share price fall.
Second-half profit would be in line with the 733 million dollars of the previous corresponding period, but down on the first half due to changed market conditions and a lower level of asset sales, the bank said.
For the year, the profit upgrade would be a 23 percent rise on the previous year.
"Macquarie remains very profitable, well capitalised and well funded," Moss told a briefing of investors and analysts in Sydney.
"Our holdings of cash and liquid securities are currently more than three times normal liquidity levels.
"We continue to record strong market shares and are experiencing continued good volumes in most businesses."
Macquarie is due to announce its full year results on May 20 and Nicholas Moore, currently head of Macquarie Capital, will take over from Moss four days later.
Shares in Macquarie Group Ltd dropped more than 7.0 percent on the news of Moss' retirement from the bank known here as "the millionaires factory".
Shortly before 11.30 am (0030 GMT), Macquarie shares were down 5.00 dollars, or 7.5 percent, to 62.18 dollars in a broadly slipping market."


----------



## tronic72

doogle said:


> I am convinced...I am in - make a long term invest on this...the US will reduce interest rates more to try and avoid recession our market will edge slowly higher and if I get scared I will bail out and make a small profit on this....sounds simple.




If you bail out you'll more than likely make a Small or Large loss. This stock is a medium to long term proposition that WILL pay off big time.


----------



## Ken

Well I have gone on the Macquarie bandwagon.

I give no recommendations on this stock.

But what i can say its part of every super fund.

There common sense investing, no one is saying you have to put your house on it, but it is worth considering it.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

MQG is in a down trend with lowers lows and lower highs since the lows of August last year.

It may appear cheap now, but if it goes below $60 on higher volume there is nothing on the charts to give it support until $50.

It  has also broken below the 30 week moving average and "loseable money" would be required to buy in , until it has trended sideways in a range for a few months. This may occur over the next few months, it may continue downwards.

It may even go below $50. After that $30 is the next support. Have a look at the enclosed chart.

"Brave" would be an accurate description for a buyer of MQG in this market.

gg


----------



## Buffettology

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It may even go below $50. After that $30 is the next support. Have a look at the enclosed chart.




Thanks for the technical Garpal.

Just one question (I am only just beginning to read up on technical analysis), do you actually beleive if it goes below $50, that it could possibly hit even close to $30?  I mean, no matter what chart tells me that, I find it just IMPOSSIBLE based on its current fundamentals.  

I mean based on its current book value, and a lower than historical average ROE, even if growth isnt as high as expected (and risk is never going to be huge with MQG) I calculate the very least it could possibly get to as around $40.  Thats considering everything goes against this company that is possible!


----------



## Miner

Garpal Gumnut said:


> MQG is in a down trend with lowers lows and lower highs since the lows of August last year.
> 
> It may appear cheap now, but if it goes below $60 on higher volume there is nothing on the charts to give it support until $50.
> 
> It  has also broken below the 30 week moving average and "loseable money" would be required to buy in , until it has trended sideways in a range for a few months. This may occur over the next few months, it may continue downwards.
> 
> It may even go below $50. After that $30 is the next support. Have a look at the enclosed chart.
> 
> "Brave" would be an accurate description for a buyer of MQG in this market.
> 
> gg




Interesting Garpal.
With no formal training or knowledge in charting techniques I would follow your tread and analysis on MQG price.

I have been advised by another analyst to buy MQG the same person who asked to buy BHP at 32 and FMG at 6. I did not buy MQG for some reasons I do not trust this group. But Bell recommends it and Huntley to buy a.

I would follow this chart and see what happens with MQG next week.
No criticism or any thing like that but I would like to monitor this for a change.
More to get confidence on chartists analysis.


----------



## BraceFace

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It may even go below $50. After that $30 is the next support. Have a look at the enclosed chart.
> 
> "Brave" would be an accurate description for a buyer of MQG in this market.
> 
> gg




To quote a famous tennis player:
You Cannot be Serious....

The company announces another record profit during extremely trying times for the financial sector, and you're suggesting it might go to $30. Come on...
Once the market shakes off it's concerns about the "Credit Crunch", I reckon investors will flock back like seagulls on a stray chip to MQG (and BNB for that matter). 
The big super funds have to invest their members $$ into something, and a big dividend paying company with an excellent track record, at bargain basement prices is going to look quite attractive I reckon.

I agree, it will probably track sideways for a while, but I see this back up in the 80's, not down in 30's. 
Remember the share bookbuild not so long back - it was at $87 from memory. That seemed like a pretty good price only a few months ago.

I hold MQG and plan to go LONG. 

"The coward calls the brave man rash, the rash man calls him a coward"
Aristotle.


----------



## Buffettology

^^^^^^^^^^

Actually, I dont beleive the company has announced anything about profit as of yet.  

Though, I would not be shocked if this one disappoints again (Im getting quiet used too it now, especially after the BHP announcement), which could be cause for more downside!


----------



## ROE

This is where all your shares price gone to 

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23173453-14334,00.html

Ridiculous pay out, and like I said he can only get at the top of the game before sh**t happen .

These guys are smart remember, they come up with these debt balloon funds and suck thousands of investors in.

Do you guys read last weekend AFR? they start to unravel Babcock and Macquaries Banks model and lot of pissed off fund manager are trying to increase stake in these funds. Cut Macbank and babcock out of the management space so they don't suck money dry out of these fund. If fund managers are successful there goes those easy money fees.

I like mum and dad investors and hate to see they put their hard earn cash into something like MAP and MIG and get ripped off big time by these guys sitting with their multi-million dollars salary. 

My Uncle Warren always said you better be vaguely right than precisely wrong  .. I think I'm vaguely right on this one so I stay away


----------



## Fab

Sounds like there might be some upside from here if we can believe the following article. This should push the share price.

http://news.theage.com.au/brokers-tell-investors-to-buy-macquarie/20080207-1qrw.html


----------



## Fab

Another positive article on MQG profit forecast. My only question is when are they suppose to announce it ??? Can anyone advise ?

Moss departure makes markets mean
07/02/08

The chief executive of Macquarie Group, Allan Moss, has announced his retirement and from May will be replaced by Nicholas Moore, currently its investment banking chief. Mr Moss reassured investors that the he was leaving the company in great shape and was handing it over to an outstanding successor but markets were not convinced. Shares in Macquarie were cut by 9 per cent yesterday, falling $6.06 to close at $61.10, but Macquarie blamed falls on Wall Street for this which saw the local market down 3 per cent. Macquarie is expected to announce another record profit of $1.8 billion in May, 23 per cent more than last year.


----------



## tronic72

Garpal Gumnut said:


> MQG is in a down trend with lowers lows and lower highs since the lows of August last year.
> 
> It may appear cheap now, but if it goes below $60 on higher volume there is nothing on the charts to give it support until $50.
> 
> It  has also broken below the 30 week moving average and "loseable money" would be required to buy in , until it has trended sideways in a range for a few months. This may occur over the next few months, it may continue downwards.
> 
> It may even go below $50. After that $30 is the next support. Have a look at the enclosed chart.
> 
> "Brave" would be an accurate description for a buyer of MQG in this market.
> 
> gg




Geez what Garbage! Are you kidding me? I think you need to go back to technical analysis school. You are dreaming.

Anyone that believes what he's saying needs their heads read. $30!!!! Yeah OK, BHP should be at $15 dollars soon too NOT.

I can't believe how scared this recent correction/crash has people. We aren't talking about a speculative stock here. We are talking about one that will actually MAKE nearly 2 Billion Dollars PROFIT. Do you really think banks will suddenly STOP lending money??  They will clamp down of course and this is a GOOD thing but banks (MQG included) make their money from LENDING. 

Mr Garpal NumbNuts seems to dislike any stock that has anything to do with property or money. Anyone who can say AFG & BNB & MQG will all suddenly fail is simply mad. (AFG maybe but I've made my 100% buying them at 1.85). And putting AFG in the same boat as MQG is like putting AQD or SDL in the same boat as BHP. Sure they both dig holes in the ground but the comparisons end there.

MQG trending sideways for a few months? Um yeah sure that will happen. NEVER!

People, don't assume that anyone who posts a Chart knows what they are talking about. Ignore fundamentals at your peril!


----------



## oldblue

If I could be confident of the "nearly $2b profit" I'd be out there buying now, but I'm not.
Have the greatest respect for MQG but they're not like a trading bank. They don't make a big proportion of their profit by lending money and sure, they have a proportion of repeating management fees but they have to go out and do deals each day to top up to nearly $2b.
Until I see a bit more stability in that market I'm keeping my pwder dry.


----------



## Fab

oldblue said:


> If I could be confident of the "nearly $2b profit" I'd be out there buying now, but I'm not.
> Have the greatest respect for MQG but they're not like a trading bank. They don't make a big proportion of their profit by lending money and sure, they have a proportion of repeating management fees but they have to go out and do deals each day to top up to nearly $2b.
> Until I see a bit more stability in that market I'm keeping my pwder dry.




That comes back to my question. Can anyone tell us when MQG is suppose to release their profit statement $2 b or whatever it will be ??


----------



## prana

May 20th 2008

Anyway, I do think it is a good buy for the long term at this price, as money becomes a smaller and smaller unit, I don't believe organic growth isnt always the only way to make quick gains, and M&A activity will still be on the agenda. There is no better credit rating than in the utilities sector, especially when it's the ONLY service you'll still pay for in a recession. In the short term, deals may suffer from slower M&A but at curent fed interest rates and record dilution of paper money, doom and gloom has been postponed to later, whewn doom and gloom turns into impending death. I'll buy gold then and move to the farm


----------



## JTLP

I wouldn't be too critical of GG.

He got the CVN trend right and I actually respect his charts.

Tronic, he didn't say it would go to 30 in a flash of the pan. He said that *IF* it breaches 60 its next support is 50.

He never said its over.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

tronic72 said:


> Geez what Garbage! Are you kidding me? I think you need to go back to technical analysis school. You are dreaming.
> 
> Anyone that believes what he's saying needs their heads read. $30!!!! Yeah OK, BHP should be at $15 dollars soon too NOT.
> 
> I can't believe how scared this recent correction/crash has people. We aren't talking about a speculative stock here. We are talking about one that will actually MAKE nearly 2 Billion Dollars PROFIT. Do you really think banks will suddenly STOP lending money??  They will clamp down of course and this is a GOOD thing but banks (MQG included) make their money from LENDING.
> 
> Mr Garpal NumbNuts seems to dislike any stock that has anything to do with property or money. Anyone who can say AFG & BNB & MQG will all suddenly fail is simply mad. (AFG maybe but I've made my 100% buying them at 1.85). And putting AFG in the same boat as MQG is like putting AQD or SDL in the same boat as BHP. Sure they both dig holes in the ground but the comparisons end there.
> 
> MQG trending sideways for a few months? Um yeah sure that will happen. NEVER!
> 
> People, don't assume that anyone who posts a Chart knows what they are talking about. Ignore fundamentals at your peril!




Thanks for your reply.

MCQ is a stock that has grown like topsy over the last few years. I note that you bought AFG at $6.70 in January and it now sits at $3. I believe it has been lower, I don't follow stocks in a down trend. Waiting for a bottom and trend sideways is a much safer way of getting onto a recovering dog.

MQG is at $60. If it follows the path of your previous tip AFG it could conceivably also lose over 50% in value. This would put it at $30, less than half of its present close today.My charts on AFG and MQG are reasonable takes on these stocks

I do like property, money and stocks, love em. I am wary however  of overgearing. Many in Australia share by views about the stocks you mention. they are over geared, margined by those within and without their boards, and stalked by short sellers on weakness.

gg


----------



## YELNATS

Fab said:


> Sounds like there might be some upside from here if we can believe the following article. This should push the share price.
> 
> http://news.theage.com.au/brokers-tell-investors-to-buy-macquarie/20080207-1qrw.html




As per the article
Quote
JP Morgan has a price target on the stock of $104.03.
Unquote

Such precision and by when??? How come these analysts/pundits with their price predictions never seem to state "by when"?


----------



## Buffettology

YELNATS said:


> As per the article
> Quote
> JP Morgan has a price target on the stock of $104.03.
> Unquote
> 
> Such precision and by when??? How come these analysts/pundits with their price predictions never seem to state "by when"?




ha ha ha, if they knew by when, they would be making 100x trading options!  

Thats why most of their price recommendations are BS.  It will reach above $100..............in 10 years!  

If they thought it would make $104.03 in the next year, I would definitely sell them options!  They could buy the long call today and send that cash to my account immediately


----------



## ROE

When all the brokers is recommending a stock it's time to sell it, that the time you get your best price 
when they all recommending to sell I be doing real research on that stocks .... and looking to buy if it's a good stock


----------



## Sean K

Firstly, a note to people making any personal attacks clearly based on personal ownership of a stock, please do not. Thanks. 

Also, please do not increase the font size to make a point, this is against the posting policies of ASF. Cheers again. 

As far as broker targets go, many do give time frames, and it's usually in the detailed report, not the bone they throw out to newspapers.

As far as the chart goes, it's managed to find support at 60 as you would expect on this 3 year chart, but where it goes from here is unclear. The short to mid term trend still looks to be down, no matter how much money they make this year.


----------



## Buffettology

Yeh, personal attacks are a bit much.  I always appreciate the technical guys analysis a lot, that is why I asked the questions I did.  Ah well, Ive just started reading up on a bit of it myself (once I fully finish reading up on options), hope it doesnt influence my fundamental analysis subconciously once I do learn technical analysis for myself 

That thread in the trading strategies section on this topic by WayneL is interesting, but doesnt appear to come to any kind of conclusion.


----------



## nick2fish

If MGQ drops to $30 what price would CBA be? or BNB($4?) 1.8 billion not bad for these times and Mr Moss with a strong risk managment profile has done the sums on his own future... 60... better to get out and spend some of that cash while I can.


----------



## ROE

MGQ and CBA are totally different models.. it belongs in the finance sector but it make its money differently... MGQ is much higher risk than CBA.

MGQ makes money on M&A and Fund management. In bear market who want to do M&A?

CBA is every day mum and dad banking where they can jack up a $1 fees here and there and they increase millions in their bottom line.

I'd rather be holding CBA than MGQ for long term.


----------



## nick2fish

Thanks for that. I know they are and have differing risk profiles My point is for MQG to drop to $50.00 the overall market will also be in freefall. 6 months into a sub prime bear market MQG has never dived alone and I don't see any reason for that to change given the latest operational brief. Oh and banks don't get to $60 per share just on suppling mums and dads with a safe haven for their spare cash and a mortgage for the kids.


----------



## Julia

tronic72 said:


> Geez what Garbage! Are you kidding me? I think you need to go back to technical analysis school. You are dreaming.
> 
> Anyone that believes what he's saying needs their heads read. $30!!!! Yeah OK, BHP should be at $15 dollars soon too NOT.
> 
> I can't believe how scared this recent correction/crash has people. We aren't talking about a speculative stock here. We are talking about one that will actually MAKE nearly 2 Billion Dollars PROFIT. Do you really think banks will suddenly STOP lending money??  They will clamp down of course and this is a GOOD thing but banks (MQG included) make their money from LENDING.
> 
> Mr Garpal NumbNuts seems to dislike any stock that has anything to do with property or money. Anyone who can say AFG & BNB & MQG will all suddenly fail is simply mad. (AFG maybe but I've made my 100% buying them at 1.85). And putting AFG in the same boat as MQG is like putting AQD or SDL in the same boat as BHP. Sure they both dig holes in the ground but the comparisons end there.
> 
> MQG trending sideways for a few months? Um yeah sure that will happen. NEVER!
> 
> People, don't assume that anyone who posts a Chart knows what they are talking about. Ignore fundamentals at your peril!



Tronic, 
You are omitting to take into consideration general market nervousness about MQG's business model which even analysts suggest is extremely complicated.
One talking head I heard yesterday suggested if MQG's figures were not sufficiently profitable, they would simply 'make some adjustments' to allow the bottom line to look better.

I've made some good profits from MQG but feel more comfortable staying out right now.


----------



## stoxclimber

Re:JPMs price target, it's usually a 12 month target. And FYI Brian Johnson is probably the most respected equity analyst in Australia. 



> You are omitting to take into consideration general market nervousness about MQG's business model which even analysts suggest is extremely complicated.




Macquarie's business model is actually quite simple. Not as simple as manufacture it and sell it, but pretty simple. I challenge you to name some analysts (with source links) who think Macquarie's model is extremely complicated - and if you do find some, I sure won't listen to them again. It's not Centro we're talking about here.


----------



## haunting

Here is a link to an article written in Fortune mag back in Oct 2007. Have a good read. 

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/17/news/international/macquarie_infrastructure_funds.fortune/index.htm

Although the person calling to attention of MQG's business model is a hedge fund manager, nevertheless, many of his "accusations" and doubts do make sense; and if you are an investor in MQG, you should be concerned, if not, at a minimum, should seek to verify if MQG is facing real issues and possibly problems as pointed out in his view.

Now that most people know the credit crunch is on. They also know it is getting harder to borrow money and the cost of money is going up. Many of the excesses built up in the equity and property markets in various part of the globe are getting their due treatment - a deflation of prices.

Here's a typical scenario. As recent as of 1st Feb 08, MQG reported this in the AFR: _Macquarie's Singapore REIT reports 39pc jump in valuations_, now I am not sure  whether this will translate to higher performance fee or not, but based on some of the more recent property news in Singapore, the government over there is taking action to cool down the property market. Here's a typical news: 

http://singaporepropertyfrontiers.com/2008/02/09/rising-cost-of-going-en-bloc-adds-to-cooler-market/

Question should be asked with regard to the 39pc jump in Mcq Singapore Reit - is this jump the last or the beginning? Is it sustainable?

As an investor, I think he or she would and should dig a little deeper into the matter. I would, if I am an investor.

Some of the other concerns raised on MQG in the article which I found should raise an alarm among the investors,  now that credit crunch is upon us, and debt and over-everaging is a dirty name, are:

_That the funds are fee factories for Macquarie wouldn't be so much an issue - sure, it's more rapacious than your average private equity firm, but only a little - if it weren't for another part of the picture. That's debt. 
Macquarie uses debt of as much as 85% to purchase an asset and pay for the necessary capital expenditures. This debt is hard to see, because it doesn't reside on Macquarie's books. You won't even see it by looking at the financial statements for the funds. 

Instead, it is held at the asset level. For instance, if you glanced at the financial statements for MIG, you would see debt of A$2.6 billion. But the assets themselves carry another A$8.7 billion of net debt. In part because there is less disclosure on some of Macquarie's other funds, it is impossible to independently calculate how much debt there is across the entire empire.

Over time the debt held by assets has often increased, not decreased, because Macquarie adds to it partly to pay shareholders their promised dividends. That's because the assets themselves don't deliver enough cash. Indeed, if you look at individual assets, from the Skyway to the M6, they may lose money after their interest expense. 

So Macquarie borrows more money and uses it to pay the dividend now, much the way a homeowner might take out a home-equity line to pay a credit card bill. "Borrowing future growth to pay investors today bears the hallmarks of a Ponzi scheme,"
_

And then this:

_Last January, Merrill Lynch analyst Matthew Davison pointed out that none of five large publicly traded Macquarie funds can fully fund their distributions. That's part of why Davison labeled Macquarie "the house that debt built." He also cited the "aggressive structuring" of the debt at the asset level. (See correction.)

For instance, on both the Indiana Toll Road and the Chicago Skyway, interest payments are very low in the early years, which increases cash flow at first but leads to much higher interest in out years - akin to a mortgage with a low teaser rate. In 2007 the Skyway will pay interest of just $129,000 on $961 million of debt. But the interest payment for 2018 is to be $480 million - that's not a typo. _

Take a closer read and find out for yourself how much truth is being  raised, or it's just some kind of bad-mouth job by a hedge fund manager who is shorting the stock. I leave that to individual to draw their own conclusion.

Cheers.


----------



## Mofra

ROE said:


> MGQ makes money on M&A and Fund management. In bear market who want to do M&A?



In one word - predators 

I do understand your point. There is bound to be a reduction in "Murder & Aquistion" activity in poor sentiment market conditions.


----------



## stoxclimber

The major problem is that a lot of people just don't understand infrastructure as an asset class. 

People, on this site, and the media commentators you refer to, seem to be worried by the following (reasons why its not a problem in brackets):

High levels of debt (cash flows are incredibly predictable for most infrastructure)

Asset level debt (project finance is the norm in infrastructure and theres no recourse to the fund as a whole. There are scale advantages in corporate level financing (e.g. Babcock's recent refinancing of its project finance debt) but with minority investors its not an option)

Increasing debt service commitments over time (step-up swaps help debt service commitments mirror cash flow profiles - you really think lenders are lending to projects without being convinced that theres sufficient cash flow cover on debt payments?) 

Liquidity dry-up in debt markets (infrastructure probably the safest asset class to lend to, infrastructure deals are still getting done - e.g. Hobart Airport)



If you read Matthew Davison's & Merrill's latest infrastructure sector research (December 07), you'll find they are singing a different tune on infrastructure funds - quite fond of MAP and MIG. And they love SKI. If you have access to a Bloomberg terminal you can grab them for free.


----------



## haunting

Granted people do not quite know what's going on as well as how debts are financed in detail, and referring to your statement: _Increasing debt service commitments over time (step-up swaps help debt service commitments mirror cash flow profiles - you really think lenders are lending to projects without being convinced that theres sufficient cash flow cover on debt payments?)_ as contrast to this, _In 2007 the Skyway will pay interest of just $129,000 on $961 million of debt. But the interest payment for 2018 is to be $480 million - that's not a typo. _ - 2018 is just another 10 years from now, not 20 or 50 years. In 10 years, the investor or the project or whatever they call it by then, will have to come out with 480 millions as interest payment. Am I reading this and deducing this right?

What about 2019? And the subsequent years?

My view is still this - IF I am an investor in this company, I would dearly want to work out a little details myself instead of relying on the analysts.

Cheers.


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## josjes

I just want to add, Argo Investments, one of Australian oldest (since 1946) and one of the most successful long term buy and hold listed investment company has been having MQG as its largest holding for the past few years, and still is. 
Sure, they could be wrong, but then again given a choice, who would you place your trust/money, financial analysts, brokers, amateur investor or someone with more than half century of enviable investment track record ?


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## Garpal Gumnut

josjes said:


> I just want to add, Argo Investments, one of Australian oldest (since 1946) and one of the most successful long term buy and hold listed investment company has been having MQG as its largest holding for the past few years, and still is.
> Sure, they could be wrong, but then again given a choice, who would you place your trust/money, financial analysts, brokers, amateur investor or someone with more than half century of enviable investment track record ?




Very interesting.

That piece of funnymentalist information is the first that has made me think twice about my generally negative view of MQG, their business model and their down trend technically. ARG know their nuts. Mrs Gumnut is a long term accumulator of ARG as are many female investors.

gg


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## josjes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Very interesting.
> 
> That piece of funnymentalist information is the first that has made me think twice about my generally negative view of MQG, their business model and their down trend technically. ARG know their nuts. Mrs Gumnut is a long term accumulator of ARG as are many female investors.
> 
> gg



You hit it on the nail Mr. Gumnut. Mrs Gumnut and me as the rare species of female investors know what we are doing. :


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## Garpal Gumnut

josjes said:


> You hit it on the nail Mr. Gumnut. Mrs Gumnut and me as the rare species of female investors know what we are doing. :




Madam,

I would never ever question a lady's judgement, particularly on stocks. Female stock pickers tend not to rush in and not to sell out on sudden price moves.

gg


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## Buffettology

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Madam,
> 
> I would never ever question a lady's judgement, particularly on stocks. Female stock pickers tend not to rush in and not to sell out on sudden price moves.
> 
> gg




Arent females more emotional?  Wouldnt that make them more likely to move with sentiment (feelings)?


----------



## Mofra

Buffettology said:


> Arent females more emotional?  Wouldnt that make them more likely to move with sentiment (feelings)?



The opposite (anecdotally at least). I'm paraphrasing Louise Bedford (and perhaps a little David E Bowden too), but female traders/investers generally need a reason to take an action, whereas men will often react without taking the time to stop & fully contemplate our actions.


----------



## ROE

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Very interesting.
> 
> That piece of funnymentalist information is the first that has made me think twice about my generally negative view of MQG, their business model and their down trend technically. ARG know their nuts. Mrs Gumnut is a long term accumulator of ARG as are many female investors.
> 
> gg




Learn to trust your judgment  everyone has their reason to be in a stock.
if you dont think it isnt good why go for it just because you think someone may know alot more than you? 

In my book anything that has high level of debt is a no-no doesnt matter what it is and how good it looks... Most funds and company go bankrupt because of debt not because they are not profitable ...


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## Garpal Gumnut

josjes said:


> You hit it on the nail Mr. Gumnut. Mrs Gumnut and me as the rare species of female investors know what we are doing. :




I've started a new thread in the General chat on the pros and cons of being male or female as regards investing trading. 

The MQG regulars may get their keks or pantaloons in a knot if this keeps up. 

gg


----------



## haunting

Hmm, interesting view.

I think most people who are contributing in this forum are amateurs barring some. Does it mean the majority are wasting their time discussing stocks here?

Let me make one last amateur TA attempt - if MQG were to retest its recent low of 58.20 and fails there, you are looking at a potential target of 42.50. And if that fails too, the next target is 31.50.

In due time, the market will show us, amateur or not.

Ok, I will shut up now. Good luck.


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## prana

Every lass and lad will have a different opinion on this one. I'm an owner on the weakness and yes there may be further down to go, so I dont want to be accused of ramping. So I'll be as fair as possible.

I'm not particularly a believer that credit is that tight - it's only tight for riskier businesses, and utilities aren't. As I said before, utilities are the only services you are likely to pay in a recession. As for spending, when citizens tighten their money, it's government that will spend on infrastructure to boost GDP (again my views). 

I'm not saying this could not go down to $30, I'm not saying it won't. I was a small holder initially, then took new positions at each of the support lines it met, and $58 being one of the largest support lines. $80, $70, and then $58. 

As with the level of debt. My personal perception is that people who revalue their homes to retrieve equity for investment have a debt security based on brick and mortar, something I feel is much of a bubble. Personally to me, utilities and infrastructure is a more stable rating, and so that's how I spread my risks. As you can see, it is entirely personal, I've seen property crashes before, and my take is many Australian's haven't and believe it nevber goes down.

Now for the holder biased useless ramping part - Buy this one or you'll regret it when it reaches $150  And the rest, This may reach $25 OMG try and fear it down so you can take a cheap position. ok ok you can disregard my post, See sig


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## stoxclimber

haunting said:


> _In 2007 the Skyway will pay interest of just $129,000 on $961 million of debt. But the interest payment for 2018 is to be $480 million - that's not a typo. _




I'm not familiar with the financing structure on the Skyway deal - if you have a link to debt service repayment commitments for the project I can comment in more detail. However, it would seem to me that it would be unlikely that the 2018 repayment was reflective of the repayments over the life of the concession, simply based on that level of repayment ongoing would surely breach the ICR covenants. Quite possible that the author has handpicked that repayment to make a shocking point. 

I do know if the financing structures for some of the other deals, and can say generally that the operational performance of the assets is modeled in detail and the financing repayments, while aggressive, are supported by the cash flows. And the lenders are quite diligent in ensuring this.


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## Mofra

prana said:


> As with the level of debt. My personal perception is that people who revalue their homes to retrieve equity for investment have a debt security based on brick and mortar, something I feel is much of a bubble. Personally to me, utilities and infrastructure is a more stable rating, and so that's how I spread my risks. As you can see, it is entirely personal, I've seen property crashes before, and my take is many Australian's haven't and believe it nevber goes down.



I'm not sure some of the management fees the parent entity take from funds is any different to drawing equity from residential property - last scan of the MAP financials seemed to indicate MCG are taking management fees from revenue _and the increase in the valuation of "assets undermanagement". If these assets reduce in value, management fees would be cut._


----------



## haunting

Hi Stoxc,

I was thinking of removing myself from this thread before it turns unpleasant judging from some of the responses I am reading, but I will give it another go.

Let me say it out front - I don't own this stock, and I don't intend to own this stock. Neither am I shorting it. I am just expressing my opinion for those who may find an alternate view useful. That's all.

With regard to this: _I do know if the financing structures for some of the other deals, and can say generally that the operational performance of the assets is modeled in detail and the financing repayments, while aggressive, are supported by the cash flows. And the lenders are quite diligent in ensuring this._

I think the danger with MQG and its myriad of funds lies in the recent developments. I am not sure whether the credit crunch has surfaced when you last  went through some of their project financing. If it has not, may be you should revisit them.

I can only point out the demise with CNP and RHG - using the same argument, surely when they were presenting their projects to the lenders, the lenders would have run a fine comb over all the numbers. And yet, see how spectacularly they failed!

With credit crunch, funding is becoming harder and costlier. Asset price is dropping and making repricing or revaluation of asset higher a much harder thing to do, which will definitely impact the income and distribution of these funds.

The market reaction to the various Maq funds has not been that great in the last 4 months. Most of their stock price are in a declining trend and may accelerate depending on how well Bernanke is able to contain the credit crunch fallout and stopping the onset of recession.

The price target I have quoted may sound ridiculous or outrageous to the existing share holders, but back when MQG was selling at 77.00 and when I was sending out alert of it risking a drop to 60, I got the same kind of reaction I am getting here.

A simple chart observation will show you that MQG is under selling pressure. In August last year, it has made a low at 65.80. On Jan 21, it made a new low of 58.20. The 50 days average volume in the recent period is at around 2.275 million shares daily, at a stock price of 65, you are looking at a daily turnover of 147 millions - it comes across to me as some kind of big fund selling.

Why are they selling?

The observation above is not pure opinion but market data and fact plus my interpretation.

Looking forward, I am not saying for sure 42.50 will happen, but, as I have said earlier, I urge those of you who own this share to take precaution, do some digging and find out more about the company you are investing in, in view of what's happening to companies that are over leveraged and heavily burdened with debt.

Cheers.


----------



## prana

haunting said:


> I urge those of you who own this share to take precaution, do some digging and find out more about the company you are investing in, in view of what's happening to companies that are over leveraged and heavily burdened with debt.




Hey Haunting, well received and a good warning for everyone, incl me. Hopefully once own risk assessment will help avoid heated selling if the poo contacts the propeller.


----------



## nick2fish

There will will be always cash around for quality investments... if not head for the hills my friend.
Oh since 20/09/07 (all negative of course)
CBA -16.68 ANZ -9.44 WES -12.66 NAB -14.65  and the dastardly financials
MQG-26.98  BNB-28.29 
The market as we all know is a beast driven by fear and greed.I will ride this one till fear is replaced by greed 

http://www.brr.com.au/event/40675 Listen to the whole speel on boardroom radio if you haven't already.


----------



## prana

Just revisited the charts, XAO appears to be consolidating around the 5800 triangle. At the same time, MQG's bearish resistance are pointing to the $58 mark. I'm not a great chartist, but last time I saw a pattern like this, it broke below support - if it does move below, a long way to go, however pattern seems to be pointing to around March. VOlumes also support weakness 

At the same time, reporting season is soon, hohpefully the financial sector will recover from the negative sentiments, but looking at BNB, now with a large bearish column, it appears gloomy  



lol .... get ready


----------



## chilliaa

haunting said:


> Granted people do not quite know what's going on as well as how debts are financed in detail, and referring to your statement: _Increasing debt service commitments over time (step-up swaps help debt service commitments mirror cash flow profiles - you really think lenders are lending to projects without being convinced that theres sufficient cash flow cover on debt payments?)_ as contrast to this, _In 2007 the Skyway will pay interest of just $129,000 on $961 million of debt. But the interest payment for 2018 is to be $480 million - that's not a typo. _ - 2018 is just another 10 years from now, not 20 or 50 years. In 10 years, the investor or the project or whatever they call it by then, will have to come out with 480 millions as interest payment. Am I reading this and deducing this right?
> 
> What about 2019? And the subsequent years?
> 
> My view is still this - IF I am an investor in this company, I would dearly want to work out a little details myself instead of relying on the analysts.
> 
> Cheers.




Spot on, also maybe i am a bit more cynical, but since when do analysts make judgements without giving consideration to other departments in the merchant bank they work for.  (future consulting/financing/listing fees etc)


----------



## chilliaa

Buffettology said:


> Arent females more emotional?  Wouldnt that make them more likely to move with sentiment (feelings)?




Nope been alot of academic research on this topic, and they found that women outperform men, because they dont trade as much.


----------



## chilliaa

haunting said:


> Hi Stoxc,
> 
> I was thinking of removing myself from this thread before it turns unpleasant judging from some of the responses I am reading, but I will give it another go.
> 
> Let me say it out front - I don't own this stock, and I don't intend to own this stock. Neither am I shorting it. I am just expressing my opinion for those who may find an alternate view useful. That's all.
> 
> With regard to this: _I do know if the financing structures for some of the other deals, and can say generally that the operational performance of the assets is modeled in detail and the financing repayments, while aggressive, are supported by the cash flows. And the lenders are quite diligent in ensuring this._
> 
> I think the danger with MQG and its myriad of funds lies in the recent developments. I am not sure whether the credit crunch has surfaced when you last  went through some of their project financing. If it has not, may be you should revisit them.
> 
> I can only point out the demise with CNP and RHG - using the same argument, surely when they were presenting their projects to the lenders, the lenders would have run a fine comb over all the numbers. And yet, see how spectacularly they failed!
> 
> With credit crunch, funding is becoming harder and costlier. Asset price is dropping and making repricing or revaluation of asset higher a much harder thing to do, which will definitely impact the income and distribution of these funds.
> 
> The market reaction to the various Maq funds has not been that great in the last 4 months. Most of their stock price are in a declining trend and may accelerate depending on how well Bernanke is able to contain the credit crunch fallout and stopping the onset of recession.
> 
> The price target I have quoted may sound ridiculous or outrageous to the existing share holders, but back when MQG was selling at 77.00 and when I was sending out alert of it risking a drop to 60, I got the same kind of reaction I am getting here.
> 
> A simple chart observation will show you that MQG is under selling pressure. In August last year, it has made a low at 65.80. On Jan 21, it made a new low of 58.20. The 50 days average volume in the recent period is at around 2.275 million shares daily, at a stock price of 65, you are looking at a daily turnover of 147 millions - it comes across to me as some kind of big fund selling.
> 
> Why are they selling?
> 
> The observation above is not pure opinion but market data and fact plus my interpretation.
> 
> Looking forward, I am not saying for sure 42.50 will happen, but, as I have said earlier, I urge those of you who own this share to take precaution, do some digging and find out more about the company you are investing in, in view of what's happening to companies that are over leveraged and heavily burdened with debt.
> 
> Cheers.




In my opinion i think you will find in the medium to long term (ie at least 3yrs+) you will see why company specific attributes will positively differentiate MQG from the other finance companies listed on the ASX.
In a rising equity market, relaxed credit market, and low interest rate environment any tom dick and harry outfit could structure themselves to 'look good'.

Firstly let me state:
1) I am not debating that MQG could be VERY volotile over 2008
2) That less favourable investment environment could very well crimp their profit over the next couple of years.

However i think you need to also consider the following:
1) From their media release ' Holdings of cash and liquid securities “are currently more than three times normal liquidity levels'
2) The market forgot that MQG did a capital raising last year before the credit crisis really errupted (a bit like WDC great timing hey)
And thus if they are 'cashed up' MQG might actually benefit from this turbulance by picking up distressed assets when other finance companies dont have the finance to do it.


----------



## haunting

Chilliaa,



> _1) From their media release ' Holdings of cash and liquid securities “are currently more than three times normal liquidity levels'
> 2) The market forgot that MQG did a capital raising last year before the credit crisis really errupted (a bit like WDC great timing hey)_




(My apology here to continue my negative view. This shall be my last.)

Thanks for raising that two points. I was looking around for more detail on their recent capital raising earlier on. If my memory is still okay, I believe there were various tranches of loans of different periods and rates. Some, if I am not confusing with other company seem to be relatively short term, of 1 year. The others are 3 years. (I could be wrong on these, correct me if you know the details)

The shorter term ones are the ones that will give them plenty of headache should and when they expire. If by then the credit crunch is still on, I believe they will have to provide some very good justification and explanation.

Quoting from that Fortune Mag write up again, here's something on MAQ's defence:

_Specifically, Allen says that interest on the debt an asset may carry is sculpted to match the cash flows it will produce. Take a toll road, which may require heavy upfront capital expenditures - some $700 million in the case of the ITR. 

Initially the road may produce little free cash. But as spending shrinks and the tolls rise, the cash falls straight to the bottom line. In the final years of the lease, the cash-rich asset pays off debt. Therefore, Allen argues, it makes sense to have the interest payments increase in later years. This is also the reason that he says it makes sense to fund distributions to shareholders out of debt in the early years. 

Allen says that the ability to raise more money by refinancing debt is driven not by the capital markets but rather by the credit quality of the asset, which improves with time as risk diminishes. 
_

I see there's a flaw(?) in this argument, again using MIG's Chicago Highway repayment of 480m on a 961m debt in 10 years time! I find this hard to swallow! How? Through more borrowing or through toll collection?  It just doesn't sound right. Am I being cynical here?

Also, by paying out such large distributions at the early stage of the project life, I am questioning the QUALITY of the asset when it reaches middle age or old age, because by then, all it has is debt. An asset ladened with debt is not a quality asset as far as I am concerned.

Another point that in my view really tells a lot is the fact that most of the top managers are getting their bonuses in cash (75%) instead of shares or options. If they are so confident in their company and their ability to make big bucks, avoiding stock options, in my view, tells me they don't really believe in themselves or in their own company. 

Is this a fair conclusion?

Cheers.


----------



## nick2fish

*Re: MQG - Acquire Group*

You have (reputedly) some of the finest financial minds in the industry in MQG... I think they would have a 100 ways to turn a buck into 2. So cash would be King to them. 

You may be right about that MIG skyway deal but the short term looks okay for management fees and in 10 years time MQG may have a 50 other such management deals and won't feel the drop in returns as much. One thing that should be emphasized about those toll roads is the growth of fees and users coupled with declining costs.

6 billion dollars of approved capital on hand may stave the wolf from the door in the short term and provide slight growth if the credit crunch hits at its hardest which by the way is not guaranteed to happen anyway.(in its worst form)

Is the glass half full or half empty?


----------



## stoxclimber

haunting said:


> Hi Stoxc,
> 
> I think the danger with MQG and its myriad of funds lies in the recent developments. I am not sure whether the credit crunch has surfaced when you last  went through some of their project financing. If it has not, may be you should revisit them.




Yep - there are (I believe) two public announcements from MQG + funds relating to debt since November - Hobart Airport and the MIG debt. Financing details are confidential but given the $350m bid for Hobart Airport (when anything over $100m was considered good by the government at he time), one can see that project financing is still viable. 

Macquarie also raised $9bn of debt when it completed its restructuring, at the height of the credit 'crunch' (initially $8bn, but strong demand from institutions raised it to 9).

Now, I ask you - when was the last time you looked at infrastructure project financing? 



> I can only point out the demise with CNP and RHG - using the same argument, surely when they were presenting their projects to the lenders, the lenders would have run a fine comb over all the numbers. And yet, see how spectacularly they failed!




Personal mortgages and shopping centers aren't of the same asset quality as infrastructure. Infrastructure assets have very predictable cash flows, and there's no way a bank (who would see Macquarie's model) would lend if its ICR and CFADS coverage ratios were not likely to be met. 



> Looking forward, I am not saying for sure 42.50 will happen, but, as I have said earlier, I urge those of you who own this share to take precaution, do some digging and find out more about the company you are investing in, in view of what's happening to companies that are over leveraged and heavily burdened with debt.




I don't doubt that there is a possibility that Macquarie can fall to 42.50..or 32.50 or 22.50 or 12.50 or even 2.50. 

However, surely you would admit that you do not have a detailed understanding of Macquarie's business, and are assuming that all companies with high levels of debt (or leveraged upon companies with high levels of debt) should have their share prices fall. That argument is a massive generalisation. 

If you do have a detailed understanding of the business, please use it to step out your previous points as I am not seeing your argument.


----------



## Miner

Extract from Eureka Report for your information

Its hard to tell whether the weakness in Macquarie Group’s (MQG) share price last week was a considered response to the surprise departure of chief executive Alan Moss or just a reflection of the malaise affecting the world’s investment banks. The group reaffirmed profit guidance for the second half of 2008 saying it would be stronger than the $773 million made in the previous corresponding period but weaker than the $1.06 billion projected for the first half of 2008. The bank remains unscathed by the sub-prime mess and is currently holding three times more cash than it usually does to take advantage of a distressed market. Real estate is one such area where most investments are currently below book value, however if the losses were realised then the impact on net profit would be about $70 million. Given that management is projecting another record profit, of about $1.8 billion, one publication considers this loss as immaterial. Macquarie Group offers good exposure to a pipeline of deals and considerable fee flows. *Avoid trying to pick the bottom and build your stake in instalments*. Buy Macquarie Group at current levels. 
*(this recommendation is ridiculous double edged sword)*


----------



## haunting

I will admit this - I have made a mistake in overstaying my welcome in this thread. My apology if I have offended anyone in any way in the course of our discussion. Cheers.


----------



## stoxclimber

No need to have a tiff when the questions get tough, haunting. 


Please, by all means, post some responses to the questions raised - the conversation is of benefit to all ASFers


----------



## chilliaa

haunting said:


> I will admit this - I have made a mistake in overstaying my welcome in this thread. My apology if I have offended anyone in any way in the course of our discussion. Cheers.





There is no need to appologise.  As with another posting i made to another member of this forum who became sensitive when 'negative' posts where made on a stock he liked, constructive debate is healthy.

So long as the posts dont become personal.

Hehe afterall, do you think the market will applogise for moving a stock up or down.


----------



## chilliaa

haunting said:


> Chilliaa,
> 
> 
> 
> (My apology here to continue my negative view. This shall be my last.)
> 
> Thanks for raising that two points. I was looking around for more detail on their recent capital raising earlier on. If my memory is still okay, I believe there were various tranches of loans of different periods and rates. Some, if I am not confusing with other company seem to be relatively short term, of 1 year. The others are 3 years. (I could be wrong on these, correct me if you know the details)
> 
> The shorter term ones are the ones that will give them plenty of headache should and when they expire. If by then the credit crunch is still on, I believe they will have to provide some very good justification and explanation.
> 
> Quoting from that Fortune Mag write up again, here's something on MAQ's defence:
> 
> _Specifically, Allen says that interest on the debt an asset may carry is sculpted to match the cash flows it will produce. Take a toll road, which may require heavy upfront capital expenditures - some $700 million in the case of the ITR.
> 
> Initially the road may produce little free cash. But as spending shrinks and the tolls rise, the cash falls straight to the bottom line. In the final years of the lease, the cash-rich asset pays off debt. Therefore, Allen argues, it makes sense to have the interest payments increase in later years. This is also the reason that he says it makes sense to fund distributions to shareholders out of debt in the early years.
> 
> Allen says that the ability to raise more money by refinancing debt is driven not by the capital markets but rather by the credit quality of the asset, which improves with time as risk diminishes.
> _
> 
> I see there's a flaw(?) in this argument, again using MIG's Chicago Highway repayment of 480m on a 961m debt in 10 years time! I find this hard to swallow! How? Through more borrowing or through toll collection?  It just doesn't sound right. Am I being cynical here?
> 
> Also, by paying out such large distributions at the early stage of the project life, I am questioning the QUALITY of the asset when it reaches middle age or old age, because by then, all it has is debt. An asset ladened with debt is not a quality asset as far as I am concerned.
> 
> Another point that in my view really tells a lot is the fact that most of the top managers are getting their bonuses in cash (75%) instead of shares or options. If they are so confident in their company and their ability to make big bucks, avoiding stock options, in my view, tells me they don't really believe in themselves or in their own company.
> 
> Is this a fair conclusion?
> 
> Cheers.




At the end of the day you have to calculate who bears the risk.  For example with AIO the risk is internalised within the company.  For MQG as 'manager' of the fund, do they bear the risk or does the fund bear the risk.


----------



## reece55

stoxclimber said:


> The major problem is that a lot of people just don't understand infrastructure as an asset class.
> 
> People, on this site, and the media commentators you refer to, seem to be worried by the following (reasons why its not a problem in brackets):
> 
> High levels of debt (cash flows are incredibly predictable for most infrastructure)
> 
> Asset level debt (project finance is the norm in infrastructure and theres no recourse to the fund as a whole. There are scale advantages in corporate level financing (e.g. Babcock's recent refinancing of its project finance debt) but with minority investors its not an option)
> 
> Increasing debt service commitments over time (step-up swaps help debt service commitments mirror cash flow profiles - you really think lenders are lending to projects without being convinced that theres sufficient cash flow cover on debt payments?)
> 
> Liquidity dry-up in debt markets (infrastructure probably the safest asset class to lend to, infrastructure deals are still getting done - e.g. Hobart Airport)
> 
> 
> 
> If you read Matthew Davison's & Merrill's latest infrastructure sector research (December 07), you'll find they are singing a different tune on infrastructure funds - quite fond of MAP and MIG. And they love SKI. If you have access to a Bloomberg terminal you can grab them for free.




I know this has already been discussed, but stoxclimber I thought I would bring up a few issues that I personally have the MQG, particularly with their infrastructure side. I think most here on this forum appreciate I dislike the Mac Model vehemently. 

For the record, your right, infrastructure is not like property for instance, where yields and capital appreciation are highly variable and susceptible to business cycles. I think we all appreciate, that come hell or high water, we all have to drive on roads. The theory in principle is also sound  that using a DCF valuation model, the investment will have a positive NPV due to the increasing tolls.  

That being said, the key problem with Mac Bank is disclosure - I can't test if I think MQG assumptions are right because we don't have access to their assumptions. With long life assets such as this, whilst I am happy that tolling increase provisions provide protection against inflation, the NPV of the asset is extremely susceptible to changes in traffic patterns 5 - 10 years down the track. So my question are as follows:

* How do the Mac geniuses know what the growth of traffic will be in perpetuity? Have they factored in the rapid increase in the price of crude and the likelihood that people are moving towards alternative means of transportation (i.e. bike and public transport)?

* How do the Mac geniuses know what the cost of capital repairs are likely to be on the toll in 10 - 15 years time. Engineering costs have gone up significantly, as well as raw materials. 

The point is they don't! So we have a very sensitive equation and I just have to trust MQG that they are right. On top of the high gearing in the actual trusts and companies that own the tolls, then MQG gear this up again. I did a check in 2006 on MIG's share of gearing in one of their large tolls - it was about 200x! So no matter how reliable, you gear something 200x and you don't need much of a change to have it all come down on you.

When you are baring in mind that we have a sensitive equation of which we are not aware of the key variables and we are gearing the **** out of it, lets think about the related party issues.

MQG earns a management fee on the market value of their unlisted instruments. MQG does not get external advice on this valuation, the auditors simply sign off on its reasonableness. Every year MIG has had a steady increase in the mark to market value of its tolling assets - funny that, isn't it. 

I also note that there is a huge shift in MQG at the moment to move their infrastructure to unlisted vehicles. Why - it's simple, even less disclosure and more free rides. 

As for the analysts, I think Merrill's et al have a vested interest in stating that the infrastructure models are ok - they are huge fee earners and every investment bank worldwide is trying to get a slice of the pie.

My point, in summary, is that we are expected to believe in the model on blind faith, a model that is relied upon at extreme gearing levels using assumption proposed by MQG that we are not able to review, where MQG has a huge conflict of interest. My conclusion is that fundamentally this equation is flawed -  there is a reason that we separate the revenue collectors and payable staff in finance - fraud. In the MQG model, the revenue collector and measurer and the person paying the cheque is the same. No matter what the sales pitch, I'm not a believer.

Cheers


----------



## reece55

chilliaa said:


> At the end of the day you have to calculate who bears the risk.  For example with AIO the risk is internalised within the company.  For MQG as 'manager' of the fund, do they bear the risk or does the fund bear the risk.




That argument is like saying that fund managers don't have any risks because they don't own the shares they invest in, the super funds do. MQG relies on it's funds management fees for revenue, for instance MIG's management fee is about 4.5% of MQG's net profit...... If MIG goes bankrupt, do you think MQG has no risk?????????


----------



## chilliaa

reece55 said:


> That argument is like saying that fund managers don't have any risks because they don't own the shares they invest in, the super funds do. MQG relies on it's funds management fees for revenue, for instance MIG's management fee is about 4.5% of MQG's net profit...... If MIG goes bankrupt, do you think MQG has no risk?????????




Sorry maybe i should have said degrees of risk.  Of course MQG would be effected through loss of managment fees.
But at the end of the day which risk is greater, loss of management fees (if you own MQG, or loss of capital in the event of bankruptcy (for the fund itself)


----------



## reece55

chilliaa said:


> Sorry maybe i should have said degrees of risk.  Of course MQG would be effected through loss of managment fees.
> But at the end of the day which risk is greater, loss of management fees (if you own MQG, or loss of capital in the event of bankruptcy (for the fund itself)




Now that I do agree with, if you add reputation loss (and boy hasn't that been evident in the financials in the last 3 months)....

For all those who think that MQG has reached a bottom, bare in mind it's annualized return for the last 3 years inclusive of dividends is still about 8% - if there is a prolonged bear market for financials, it could still fall further, much further.....

Cheers


----------



## nomore4s

Well I don't really know much about the fundimentals of MQG, just know they make plenty of money, whether that changes in the future I don't know but what I do know is that today has provided any opp to get in at $49.50 for a short term trade with a stop at $47.99 (allowing for some slippage due to it being prone to gapping on open).

The stock is at long term support and if this support is broken I want to be out anyway, maybe even short, and with my first price target of $55 it gives me a fairly good chance of a good return with a low risk set up.

Sorry at work can't attach a chart.


----------



## nomore4s

nomore4s said:


> Well I don't really know much about the fundimentals of MQG, just know they make plenty of money, whether that changes in the future I don't know but what I do know is that today has provided any opp to get in at $49.50 for a short term trade with a stop at $47.99 (allowing for some slippage due to it being prone to gapping on open).
> 
> The stock is at long term support and if this support is broken I want to be out anyway, maybe even short, and with my first price target of $55 it gives me a fairly good chance of a good return with a low risk set up.
> 
> Sorry at work can't attach a chart.




Obviously on something this afternoon, add $10.00 to all prices mentioned above

Weekly chart attached


----------



## barnz2k

nomore4s said:


> Obviously on something this afternoon, add $10.00 to all prices mentioned above




haha I was going to post and thought hang on I better check the day's chart incase something crazy happened - you scared me that they had dropped below $50!


----------



## Fab

Sounds like it should bounce back strongly today. The problem is that in the current market you never know what will happen


----------



## stoxclimber

Sorry for the late reply, reece. 



reece55 said:


> That being said, the key problem with Mac Bank is disclosure - I can't test if I think MQG assumptions are right because we don't have access to their assumptions.




Well, to be fair, you don't have access to assumptions for any company for good reasons - if MQG publicly released its models, its competitive advantages would disappear. For example, if WOW buys some NZ supermarkets, do you really expect them to publicly release their models and 10 year strategy documents for the acquisition, so that shareholders know their money was well spent? That's pretty unrealistic. 



> the NPV of the asset is extremely susceptible to changes in traffic patterns 5 - 10 years down the track. So my question are as follows:
> 
> * How do the Mac geniuses know what the growth of traffic will be in perpetuity? Have they factored in the rapid increase in the price of crude and the likelihood that people are moving towards alternative means of transportation (i.e. bike and public transport)?




Its fair enough to say asset values will fluctuate. As they do with every class of asset. However, I do think you are way overemphasising the revenue risks - traffic patterns are very stable. There's a few reasons why factors you mention aren't really a problem - I can elaborate in more detail if you wish (typing this up before hitting the gym!).



> * How do the Mac geniuses know what the cost of capital repairs are likely to be on the toll in 10 - 15 years time. Engineering costs have gone up significantly, as well as raw materials.




Sure - but same with every asset. However, infrastructure is not very susceptible to cost variations - EBITDA margins are usually massive, its the cost of capitals and capex schedules that drive the value. 



> The point is they don't! So we have a very sensitive equation and I just have to trust MQG that they are right. On top of the high gearing in the actual trusts and companies that own the tolls, then MQG gear this up again. I did a check in 2006 on MIG's share of gearing in one of their large tolls - it was about 200x! So no matter how reliable, you gear something 200x and you don't need much of a change to have it all come down on you.




But the thing is, the equation is not that sensitive. Of course, the more gearing you add, the more sensitive it is. However, I'm not sure how you calculated the figure of 200x gearing, and what that number represents (is that a debt-equity ratio?). If it's a D/E ratio, I can assure you you must have made some mistake in calculations - these assets are not 0.5% equity. 




> MQG earns a management fee on the market value of their unlisted instruments. MQG does not get external advice on this valuation, the auditors simply sign off on its reasonableness. Every year MIG has had a steady increase in the mark to market value of its tolling assets - funny that, isn't it.




It's not really that funny because the value of these assets has increased every year (e.g. look at AIX, which is valued by the market). That's like saying its funny that the value of my bank account goes up when they pay interest. The value of all infrastructure assets (save some exceptions, like Sydney's tram/monorail network) has been rising. Depending on the financing structures, we might see some downward revisions this year. 



> I also note that there is a huge shift in MQG at the moment to move their infrastructure to unlisted vehicles. Why - it's simple, even less disclosure and more free rides.




Is that your speculation as to the reason or you have some information to support that? As far as I know (which is to a pretty good detail), the shift to unlisted vehicles is driven by demand from clients - they don't want equity market volatility for assets which aren't really bearing equity market risk. Additionally there's few natural retail investors in infrastructure so it doesn't make sense to a public offering. 



> As for the analysts, I think Merrill's et al have a vested interest in stating that the infrastructure models are ok - they are huge fee earners and every investment bank worldwide is trying to get a slice of the pie.




I agree, and feel that price targets and recommendations by research analysts are generally to be ignored - it was just a counterpoint to the person who quoted Merrill saying in early 06 that Macquarie was a house of cards, and that they are singing a different tune now.


----------



## reece55

stoxclimber said:


> Sorry for the late reply, reece.




No problem mate, thought we had lost all the MQG's bulls to the market of late!!!!



stoxclimber said:


> Well, to be fair, you don't have access to assumptions for any company for good reasons - if MQG publicly released its models, its competitive advantages would disappear. For example, if WOW buys some NZ supermarkets, do you really expect them to publicly release their models and 10 year strategy documents for the acquisition, so that shareholders know their money was well spent? That's pretty unrealistic.




Why not? Babcock and Brown distributed their model for BBW a while back in excel format, which was thorough. Surely there is a way of doing this without losing it's competitive advantage i.e. discount rates applied, revenue increase assumptions, etc. I refuse to believe that we can't achieve a medium here...



stoxclimber said:


> Its fair enough to say asset values will fluctuate. As they do with every class of asset. However, I do think you are way overemphasising the revenue risks - traffic patterns are very stable. There's a few reasons why factors you mention aren't really a problem - I can elaborate in more detail if you wish (typing this up before hitting the gym!).
> 
> Sure - but same with every asset. However, infrastructure is not very susceptible to cost variations - EBITDA margins are usually massive, its the cost of capitals and capex schedules that drive the value.




Infrastructure is not susceptible to cost variations??? Well, I can only tell you that in the last 2 - 3 years working in the mining sector, the cost of building plant and equipment infrastructure has more than doubled. Now whilst there are far more revenue risks in building say a mine than a road toll, what they have in common is that due to long life (well, good mines that is), the initial and ongoing capital requirements are critical to the return. Are you really telling me that Mac Bank can control these outside influences???? High EBITDA is great, but if the underlying DA is wrong in long life assets, it doesn't matter how big the EBITDA is yo uwil lbe f$%&#! 



stoxclimber said:


> But the thing is, the equation is not that sensitive. Of course, the more gearing you add, the more sensitive it is. However, I'm not sure how you calculated the figure of 200x gearing, and what that number represents (is that a debt-equity ratio?). If it's a D/E ratio, I can assure you you must have made some mistake in calculations - these assets are not 0.5% equity.




I was quoting D/E, but to be honest I hadn't looked at the financials in some time. Re-reviewing, we are looking at between 4- 12 in the investments themselves, add 50% gearing in MIG itself, so between 8 - 24 - still, that I think most will agree is fairly aggressive gearing. Don't know how I got that one wrong, perhaps I was looking at par capital and not factoring in share premium accounts (why oh why haven't the UK and US abolished the notion of par value and authorised capital???).



stoxclimber said:


> It's not really that funny because the value of these assets has increased every year (e.g. look at AIX, which is valued by the market). That's like saying its funny that the value of my bank account goes up when they pay interest. The value of all infrastructure assets (save some exceptions, like Sydney's tram/monorail network) has been rising. Depending on the financing structures, we might see some downward revisions this year.




Well, AIX principally is an investor in Airports, which I haven't been attacking. I am specifically talking about road tolls here. Plus, unlike MIG and MAP, AIX funds it's distributions from operating cash flow. Plus, unlike MQG they provide an analyst pack to back up their valuations. See a pattern here - a lack of MacBank transparency. 

As for infrastructure being like money in a bank account.... hrmmm.... I think that argument is severely flawed....... Look, I will give a good example here about what I think is complete crap - in MIG's 30 June 2007 financial accounts, they declared a 1 Bil AUD revaluation on a 540 Mil investment, APRR. Reason given, to quote, "The risk premium applied in the valuation of APRR at 30 June 2006 was 18.0%, reflecting the acquisition price of the
asset. The risk premium was revised to 12.0% at 31 December 2006, reflective of the fact that the asset was in a transition phase operationally, and to 8.0% at 30 June 2007, bringing it more into line with the risk premiums used in valuing MIG’s other assets." Wow, not bad for two years return of in excess of 100% per annum because, oh yeah, the risk premium was too high. If infrastructure is so safe, how are they achieving such an excellent return - I subscribe to the notion that high risk = high return - are you telling me Mac Bank worked out how to get super duper return without any risk?



stoxclimber said:


> Is that your speculation as to the reason or you have some information to support that? As far as I know (which is to a pretty good detail), the shift to unlisted vehicles is driven by demand from clients - they don't want equity market volatility for assets which aren't really bearing equity market risk. Additionally there's few natural retail investors in infrastructure so it doesn't make sense to a public offering.




Demand by clients, or investment managers that manage money for clients? I would think it is the later. I just don't think that unlisted vehicles provide for a better model because it removes the transparency away from us, the people whose money will end up in this crap.




stoxclimber said:


> I agree, and feel that price targets and recommendations by research analysts are generally to be ignored - it was just a counterpoint to the person who quoted Merrill saying in early 06 that Macquarie was a house of cards, and that they are singing a different tune now.




Fair comment, wasn't aware of the context.

In summary, still not convinced mate....... But perhaps I never will be and you are.... it makes for an interesting debate.

Cheers


----------



## Rainmaker2000

Interesting read guys.......let it be known that I dislike Mac Bank as much as the next guy......they are not bad at what they do which is a way of saying MFS is bad at what Mac does....Mac has pioneered many of their forms of asset exploitation which is at least some badge of honour for Aussies in global markets.

Even though Macs performance and even its funds has been consistently okay, the more I conclude that it's a bubble situation....Mac has done so well to date since they created many of the asset classes and its taken a while for others to jump on board boosting up these 'asset' values.

Macs not a house of cards since they've been smart so far to keep the parent largely debt free, but it is a very, very cyclical player.....

It's assets only outperform when one adds copious amount of debt.....they are capital intensive assets with high fixed cost bases.....in general, I can't think of something more cyclical with their only saving grace being they are often local monopolies with steady traffic or planes or whatever


----------



## ROE

You guys been reading paper lately? a few short paragraphs pop up here and there up but I guess people who love MacBank dont want to know.

1. Their Fortress Fund that expose to sub prime worth very little today
2. Their ALPS5 investors got a nasty surprise that they wont get any income or capital growth until at least 2013. So much for double digit income.

Damn maybe they predicting 2013 is when the cheap credit returns


----------



## nick2fish

No we don't really  Buts here is an interesting fact Citigroup shares have dropped 40% over reported sub prime billion dollar losses and Macguarie Group has lost also 40% in share price value despite forcasting 1.8 billion profit.


----------



## reece55

nick2fish said:


> No we don't really  Buts here is an interesting fact Citigroup shares have dropped 40% over reported sub prime billion dollar losses and Macguarie Group has lost also 40% in share price value despite forcasting 1.8 billion profit.




The chart is all that matters my friend.....

Citigroup have just been honest with their investors and taken their losses on balance sheet...... MQG so far claim they are immune, but I will be having a good look at the number when they come out, because brighter people than MQG have lost a lot of money in this market....... Me thinks a bit of creative accounting has taken place...

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

reece55 said:


> The chart is all that matters my friend.....
> 
> Citigroup have just been honest with their investors and taken their losses on balance sheet...... MQG so far claim they are immune, but I will be having a good look at the number when they come out, because brighter people than MQG have lost a lot of money in this market....... Me thinks a bit of creative accounting has taken place...
> 
> Cheers



Reece, I don't know MQG's business model that well, but I am really interested to see what comes out of their accounts in the coming months. The market has taken quite a few $$ (50%) off their value for a reason, as with the other financial institutions subject to question. 

I agree there may could possibly have been some Hogwarts accounting taking place here, and across the industry, and some heads will roll.....

There are a lot of mums and dads in this stock, including mine (along with ship loads in CBA) who are going to be really feeling this in the coming weeks/months. 

As the financials have underpinned our market for so long (along with BHP and RIO) it's beyond looking extremely tenuous....


----------



## nick2fish

reece55 said:


> The chart is all that matters my friend.....
> 
> Citigroup have just been honest with their investors and taken their losses on balance sheet...... MQG so far claim they are immune, but I will be having a good look at the number when they come out, because brighter people than MQG have lost a lot of money in this market....... Me thinks a bit of creative accounting has taken place...
> 
> Cheers



They really didn't have much off a choice...now did they... given the size of their losses. BNB have also lost 40% on ok news and my point is that investors have used paranoia to access company worth rather than rational fundamental thinking. Anyway if they have been creative, well maybe they are the brighter ones after all cause they have quite a few brokers/investors looking for potential calamities (other than yourself) and the result ... hypothesis.


----------



## reece55

nick2fish said:


> They really didn't have much off a choice...now did they... given the size of their losses. BNB have also lost 40% on ok news and my point is that investors have used paranoia to access company worth rather than rational fundamental thinking. Anyway if they have been creative, well maybe they are the brighter ones after all cause they have quite a few brokers/investors looking for potential calamities (other than yourself) and the result ... hypothesis.




Nick...

I have absolutely no idea what you are going on about.... 

What I was referring to was not their property losses, but all the other crap they have invented, spun off, securitised off balance sheet lying in Bermuda/the Caymans and any other tax haven you can think off since our asset bubble that started back in about 92... If you look deep into MQG's notes, the notional value of just the derivatives they have written (supposedly completely hedged out) in 2007 amounts to just under 1 trillion AUD..... Doesn't take much to screw that up, or you only need one counterparty to default (and god knows there are a few dropping off the perch). This is but one wonderful stat in the MQG world... 

If it is all just my imagination, what an overreaction....... MQG now back to a 3 year low with the announcement today that Macquarie Securitisation will wind back it's mortgage business, which accounts for 2.5% of the outstanding housing loans in Australia.. But don't worry folks, it's not material to MQG's bottom line.... I love the "it only makes up for a small portion of our profits".. I wouldn't be worried about the interest income, I would be concerned about the capital exposure in the event that they have take some of it back on their balance sheet and capital drain... Jan housing loan data inclusive of securitisation is 924 BIL in housing loans, 2.5% of that is 23.1 Bil... that's a fair chunk if they can't continue to fund it using traditional securitisation techniques.....

Cheers


----------



## dale

anybody know where i could find a decent, no bulls**t explanation of mac's investing model? mabye even a comparison between macquaries and babcocks model?

i just want to try to understnad the fundamental differences between the two and since both have been slaughtered  (down roughly 40% since Nov) if there is any potentail value in either or has it just been a reprofiling of risk in to the sp's?

cheers 

dale


----------



## nick2fish

reece55 said:


> Nick...
> 
> 
> Jan housing loan data inclusive of securitisation is 924 BIL in housing loans, 2.5% of that is 23.1 Bil... that's a fair chunk if they can't continue to fund it using traditional securitisation techniques.....




They didn't say they can't continue it They said they would substantially reduce origination of new residential mortgages, but would continue to provide full service to existing customers. I don't know where you got the idea that they are having trouble funding or is that just more conjecture.


----------



## reece55

nick2fish said:


> They didn't say they can't continue it They said they would substantially reduce origination of new residential mortgages, but would continue to provide full service to existing customers. I don't know where you got the idea that they are having trouble funding or is that just more conjecture.




I said IF mate, if they have to take it on balance sheet...... I say this because funding loans via normal securitisation methods in Australia or indeed the world are basically dead.......

Do you have any friends in banking who are actually trying to fund paper at the moment? Cause I do and they basically say it's impossible. Everyone is being forced take it back on balance sheet because they can't fund it externally...... This is why I mention the risks..... 

Cheers


----------



## dhukka

reece55 said:


> I said IF mate, if they have to take it on balance sheet...... I say this because funding loans via normal securitisation methods in Australia or indeed the world are basically dead.......
> 
> Do you have any friends in banking who are actually trying to fund paper at the moment? Cause I do and they basically say it's impossible. Everyone is being forced take it back on balance sheet because they can't fund it externally...... This is why I mention the risks.....
> 
> Cheers




Ain't that the truth. As I mentioned on another thread recently:



> How about just more mundane stuff such as securitization? In 2006 Aussie banks securitized *$62.7* billion into Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS). Through the end of July 2007 they were well on their way to a record year having securitized *$53* billion of RMBS. From August - December they securitized just *$3.8* billion.




Securitization of RMBS has just simply gone away. Banks are forced to retain them on balance sheet. The leverage your way to prosperity party is over for the likes of MQG and BNB.


----------



## nick2fish

reece55 said:


> I said IF mate, if they have to take it on balance sheet...... I say this because funding loans via normal securitisation methods in Australia or indeed the world are basically dead.......
> 
> Do you have any friends in banking who are actually trying to fund paper at the moment? Cause I do and they basically say it's impossible. Everyone is being forced take it back on balance sheet because they can't fund it externally...... This is why I mention the risks.....
> 
> Cheers




No I don't, nor do I have the financial knowledge that you or your friends do. I am a mug investor who reads a bit and participates in forums such as this so I can improve my ability to make informed and well judged investments. Because this is the Macquire Group thread and not a Why Macquire Group Will Fail thread I will continue to question your opinions. If what you and your banking friends are saying is true (and I believe securitisation could be a problem at present) MQG have followed the correct procedure in not pursuing a non profitable line of their enterprise? They have many more strings to their bow and 6 billion of secured funds to invest. I appreciate your dislike or distrust of the MQG business model, though I can't understand why , it has been around in its most simplistic form for ever. The Sicilian mafia and the Roman empire to name a few. Now and its more complicated form it still stays true to the original in that the investment which they rely on for fees must be strong ie: infrastructure, airlines, leisure, retirement, all are activities that we as a society need and rely on. Their income funds are assured unless we as a society fail. Thats my fundamentalist point of view and I await your reply for that is how I will learn


----------



## Rainmaker2000

Dale, I'm no expert on Mac but... a no bull explanation of the Mac model.....its so diverse that I don't really want to write the paras...here goes

1. Basically, I understand 'normal' banking operations have been hived off elseware....can anyone say the code of that entity??

2  The company on a basic level is a funds management enterprise specialising in 'alternative' asset classes like infrastructure.  Most of these funds are ASX listed.  The beauty of Mac is that they practically invented the exploitation of infrastructure for example, which has placed them right at the bottom of the bubble

3. Macquarie's income comes from their diverse range of services across the asset acquisition and management supply chain.  To an entent they own part of their funds (to control them) and they thus benefit from any performance from them.  Most of their income comes in lovely fees which the highly paid Mac people earn right across their own supply chain and of course providing services to others.

4.  The drivers of Mac are complex but basically they require a demand side of ignorant, I mean, high yeild seeking Aussies and others who wish to investment their cash, pay high fees to receive a 'yield'.  On their broader services, Mac depends on booming M & A activity.

On the supply side, Mac can pretty much only supply competitive investment products if the cost of debt is low.  That's because their assets, similar to real estate, only make decent returns if you add much debt.  Macs ridiculous fees can only be derived if investors make returns so pretty much low cost leverage.

5.  The key risk in Mac is its off balance sheet obligations which are to some extent unknown.  The actual business carries little debt.  The risk to their ongoing performance is a bear market and high cost of debt.....

Enjoy


----------



## ROE

cheap debt is over get used to it.. MQG is based on a cheap debt model
get used to them shutting up funds they cant find cheap debt to pay for.

there are many smart people who already questions MacBank model during the bull market and of course no one want to listen.
when smart people speak you listen and I certainly listen when it hits 75 bucks and did some research and stay the hell out and
I still do

Like uncle Warren said you get to see who is swimming naked When the tide goes out


----------



## michael_selway

ROE said:


> cheap debt is over get used to it.. MQG is based on a cheap debt model
> get used to them shutting up funds they cant find cheap debt to pay for.
> 
> there are many smart people who already questions MacBank model during the bull market and of course no one want to listen.
> when smart people speak you listen and I certainly listen when it hits 75 bucks and did some research and stay the hell out and
> I still do
> 
> Like uncle Warren said you get to see who is swimming naked When the tide goes out




This stock might have further downside if it is highly leveraged on "cheap debt" imo

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 569.8 674.6 668.6 719.2 
DPS 315.0 365.0 369.0 405.0 



> Date: 6/3/2008
> Author: Jacob Saulwick
> Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 29
> The global credit crisis is having an impact in Australia. On 5 March 2008,Macquarie Group revealed that it will cut back new lending for home loans. Thismeans less competition for the big banks, which will remain in the market andwill continue to be the key providers of home loans to Australians. Smallerrivals in the mortgage lending field are feeling the heat of the higher price ofmoney. The crisis in the globe's debt markets means that no group wants tobuy home loans that are bundled together to form one financial package.Macquarie Group cannot completely withdraw from the mortgage market, because ithas to fulfil contracts signed with other lenders that repackage its home loans,such as Virgin Money
> 
> Date: 6/3/2008
> Author: Brendan Swift
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 25
> The global liquidity crisis hit Macquarie Group on 5 March 2008, with theannouncement that it would stop selling new mortgages to customers. Macquariebanking and financial services group head, Peter Maher, said the bank could not"see any immediate prospect of a change in conditions". Over the past12 months, RAMS Home Loan Group was forced to sell its brand and stores toWestpac Bank and the Allco-owned Mobius was put up for sale after it stoppedlending to new customers. According to Credit Suisse, the gap between theofficial cash rate and the 90-day bill rate averaged 0.57 percentage points inthe first quarter of 2008. Virgin Money Australia's CEO, David Wakeley,said Macquarie's decision would not affect plans for an expanded productrange


----------



## Mofra

dhukka said:


> Securitization of RMBS has just simply gone away. Banks are forced to retain them on balance sheet. The leverage your way to prosperity party is over for the likes of MQG and BNB.



The major problem was the Societe Generale scandal, as most of the non-securitised funds had been wharehoused with them. No Frenchies, no funding.

If the securitisation drama was short or medium term, Mac could ride them out. It is only in the past few weeks just how entrenched the securitisation issue has become, and how long it is likely to last for (as the gold bulls keep mentioning, CDOs are next to impossible to sell & many OTC derivatives are worthless as the counter-parties wont be able to meet their obligations anyway). Cost of funds for some lenders spiked 55+ basis points in a week!

At $23b+, Mac had the most securitised funds in the land. Next biggest? St George & Ade Bank at over $30b combined. Food for thought & an good possibilities to add to your "avoid like the plague" list, since lending operations are a major driver of profit in these two comapnies.

FWIW at $56m profit, the mortgage business wasn't exactly a great driver of Mac's profits.


----------



## reece55

nick2fish said:


> No I don't, nor do I have the financial knowledge that you or your friends do. I am a mug investor who reads a bit and participates in forums such as this so I can improve my ability to make informed and well judged investments. Because this is the Macquire Group thread and not a Why Macquire Group Will Fail thread I will continue to question your opinions. If what you and your banking friends are saying is true (and I believe securitisation could be a problem at present) MQG have followed the correct procedure in not pursuing a non profitable line of their enterprise? They have many more strings to their bow and 6 billion of secured funds to invest. I appreciate your dislike or distrust of the MQG business model, though I can't understand why , it has been around in its most simplistic form for ever. The Sicilian mafia and the Roman empire to name a few. Now and its more complicated form it still stays true to the original in that the investment which they rely on for fees must be strong ie: infrastructure, airlines, leisure, retirement, all are activities that we as a society need and rely on. Their income funds are assured unless we as a society fail. Thats my fundamentalist point of view and I await your reply for that is how I will learn




Nick
I certainly appreciate that you may be frustrated in trying to understand the MacBank model..... If you review this thread in it's entirety, you will note I have been as vocal against it when MQG was at $95 as when it is some 47.00 as it is now.......

The reason you don't understand why I am vocal against the model is because you actually don't understand it yourself. You think their funds are built on a stable foundation of fundamental value. It is true that their funds themselves contain assets that are crucial to life. However, what MQG have done is turn these assets into tradeable instruments, revalued them up using ridiculous valuation assumptions, extracted the life out of the cash flows by charging high management fees, distributing excessive dividends to shareholders  and have relied on capital recycling to fund operating cash flow.....

Have a look through just about any MQG satellite fund except for the property trusts, particularly MAP and MIG, and you will see one central theme - in order to fund Australia's lust for yield, MQG have done the equivalent of a reverse mortgage on a house. The simple answer is that this is because the operating cash flows aren't even sufficient to fund the yield (note you will have to have a look through approach at times to determine this, because MQG hide this by holding less than a 50% interest in many of the assets). So what MQG has done is revalue the asset, take out more debt, pay themselves a fee for the process as well extract a management fee and then deposit the difference to the investors. 

Now look at the environment we are in - do you think this model will succeed or fail? Do you think the value of these capital investments, whilst essential, should be going up or down in light of recent market movements?

At the present stage, I have no vested interest in seeing MQG go down - but that won't stop me from telling people that I think this business is a load of crap........ 

At the end of it all, I do wish you all the best with your investments, especially in these volatile times.... And perhaps, if anything, I have made you question the model the MQG market team is presenting you with so that you might come up with informed decision for yourself. Because at the moment, every broker in town is still saying "Wow, MacBanks never been this cheap, top rated buy"............. This baby has consumed a lot of super fund $$'s lately...........

Cheers


----------



## Bloodwynch

reece55 said:


> Have a look through just about any MQG satellite fund except for the property trusts, particularly MAP and MIG, and you will see one central theme - in order to fund Australia's lust for yield, MQG have done the equivalent of a reverse mortgage on a house. The simple answer is that this is because the operating cash flows aren't even sufficient to fund the yield (note you will have to have a look through approach at times to determine this, because MQG hide this by holding less than a 50% interest in many of the assets). So what MQG has done is revalue the asset, take out more debt, pay themselves a fee for the process as well extract a management fee and then deposit the difference to the investors.




Looking at the MAP accounts they are paying dividends out of operating cashflow, not through revaluations and borrowing to pay the dividend. Also they have not overpaid for assets as witnessed by the rome airports divestment booking in a nice profit. Maybe I'm looking at the accounts wrong, but I don't see any flaws in MAP. Macquarie funds are structured to use the maximum debt to maximize tax benefits, but at the same time not over doing it with the leverage.

I have not looked at MIG so I can't comment on that.


----------



## reece55

Bloodwynch said:


> Looking at the MAP accounts they are paying dividends out of operating cashflow, not through revaluations and borrowing to pay the dividend. Also they have not overpaid for assets as witnessed by the rome airports divestment booking in a nice profit. Maybe I'm looking at the accounts wrong, but I don't see any flaws in MAP. Macquarie funds are structured to use the maximum debt to maximize tax benefits, but at the same time not over doing it with the leverage.
> 
> I have not looked at MIG so I can't comment on that.




Bloodwynch...

Look again my friend....
Operating cash flow 07 = 1,124,513
Less:
Borrowing costs in Financing activities: (530,257)
Capital returns to MI: (826,832)

Add back:
MI Contrbution of capital: 233,007

Equals: 431
Distribution: (324,393)

And this is being very generous, if we actually count the interest income from convertible notes, not sure if there is sufficient cash flow from the associates to cover the payments...

All I can say is don't buy the story, read the cash flows properly... 

The P&L really tells the story however... NPAT = 1,530,655
Less: revaluation income (1,873,967)
Add Depn: 516,318
Add downwards reval: 77,656
Equals= 250,662 (which is earnings before depreciation and amortisation, which theoretically is what they have left to distribute to you). On average MAP owns about 50% share of the entities it consolidates, so say even $130 Mil is attributable to them. Bare in mind that MAP's consolidated entities accounts for about 92% of the investment portfolio. So, we are squeezing a $330 Mil distribution from $142 Mil distributable earnings (assuming the non controlled entities operate on similar margins etc). See how the equation doesn't quite stack up?

What did MAP pay MQG for this wonderful service - $230 Million dollars in 2007. This doesn't include anything they might have received from transactional advice that might be capitalised.... Does anyone except for me think this one is a golden goose for the MacBank?????? Adding insult to injury is that MacBank are using your capital to fund their own business - at 31 December 2007, MAP had 880 Mil invested in MacBank certificates of deposits and commercial paper...... Do they want to ride this baby any more????

Cheers


----------



## nick2fish

Thanks Reece, for your detailed responses to my queries, sometimes you have to push hard to get answers even if those answers are not the ones you want to hear. The fence is looking like a great place to sit at the moment Cheers


----------



## Trader52

This one is looking oversold at present.  If the credit crunch does not get worse (and I know that is a big IF) it will head north, especially if the Hedgies start shifting out of commodities and back into the financials.  I bought in near its lows and realise that I may have to hold for a while, but looks a solid bet IMO.


----------



## juw177

Trader52 said:


> This one is looking oversold at present.  If the credit crunch does not get worse (and I know that is a big IF) it will head north, especially if the Hedgies start shifting out of commodities and back into the financials.  I bought in near its lows and realise that I may have to hold for a while, but looks a solid bet IMO.




What sort of analysis is that? One for the dreamers who have been using the very same thinking from $80 right down to $40.

If we look at technical analysis, the trend is down.

Fundamentally, Macquarie's businesses that rely on cheap debt are struggling.


----------



## Mofra

nick2fish said:


> They didn't say they can't continue it They said they would substantially reduce origination of new residential mortgages, but would continue to provide full service to existing customers. I don't know where you got the idea that they are having trouble funding or is that just more conjecture.






reece55 said:


> I said IF mate, if they have to take it on balance sheet...... I say this because funding loans via normal securitisation methods in Australia or indeed the world are basically dead.......
> 
> Do you have any friends in banking who are actually trying to fund paper at the moment? Cause I do and they basically say it's impossible. Everyone is being forced take it back on balance sheet because they can't fund it externally...... This is why I mention the risks.....



I can tell you with 100% accuracy that Macquarie closed their origination for mortgage due to the funding issues - CBA & Society Generale closed the warehouse facilities so Macquarie had little choice, due mainly to 2 reasons:

a.  They don't have a large deposit base, and the deposits they do hold are directed towards higher-margin business (mortgages are the lowest on the food chain).

b.  Macquarie (unlike the majors) refuse to write unprofitable business, so they have been slowly being priced out of the market anyway.

$56m profit was last year's mortgages profit contribution to overall group profit. I'd worry about other divisions before I decide mortgages is the reason for their current downtrend.


----------



## oldblue

MQG at $49-50!

I think about buying this stock every now and again. Then I remember that I sold MAP and MIG last year because I couldn't follow their convoluted accounts to my satisfaction, beyond noting that they seemed to rely on revaluations of assets to make distributions. Then I re-read reece55's analysis - many thanks, r55 - and go on to something else.


----------



## Uttsy

Gday everyone, I sold out of MQG this morn (at a bit of a loss) and have been following the posts on here with interest. I was just wondering amongst the chartists out there where they think this one is heading? I've read that the Japanese reporting season is starting soon and with most banks expecting some major write downs and this will have a knock on effect to banks here.


----------



## reece55

Interesting (but never the less for anyone following this thread probably not surprising given my multiple comments)  findings from RiskMetrics, which basically take a big swing at the listed infrastructure. To be completely fair, it's not just MQG that gets hit, BNB features heavily as well....

I still think the stats for the MacBank fund are incorrect when it comes to operating cash flow, because they (MQG) include distribution from their unlisted investments where they own less than 50% and therefore do not consolidate. A more appropriate comparison of "cash raping" would proportional operating cash flow from MQG's funds, which would be considerably lower than is reported....

The Age article is here and I have attached the report.

One element I didn't consider was the independence of MQG's auditors, where PWC are contracted to do all the work and therefore fee wise would have considerable fee loss if they decided to dispute one of the reports... interesting...

Cheers


----------



## Mr_T

The Economist has written an EXCELLENT article on Macquarie this week. Luckily, it's available online for free.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11052919


----------



## nick2fish

Nice work MR T ... There is an interesting part at the end where it says tight government budgets(we can all see that happening) may upsize the snack portion for this Monster we call Macquarie.


----------



## grizzly1

Interesting that this article makes the point of limited impact being seen in  impact of current credit market conditions via the credit default swap chart comparison with US instos, but not with Aussie instos, that's one I'd like to see, but for an international/US readership it reads like a measured broker analysis without the buy recommendation, well not directly.

"Meanwhile, all the analysts who cover Macquarie now have a buy recommendation on it. Credit-default swaps, measuring the likelihood of default within a year, have been far more sanguine about Macquarie than they have about Wall Street firms"

Great link Mr T thanks


----------



## Mofra

> Last year the Macquarie Infrastructure Group fund covered only 68% of its payout to shareholders from the cash it received from underlying operations; the Macquarie Airports fund covered 75%. This strategy can persist only with a rising value of the assets, and the cashflows derived from them.
> 
> Macquarie says this has happened. But in yet another cause for concern, the entity valuing the assets is Macquarie itself.



In addition to this, the basis for management fees from the seperately listed funds generally include a revaluation of assets as well, so the negative cashflow takes an extra hit by way of fees to the parent entity.

Scary stuff but if they can get away with it...


----------



## reece55

Mofra said:


> In addition to this, the basis for management fees from the seperately listed funds generally include a revaluation of assets as well, so the negative cashflow takes an extra hit by way of fees to the parent entity.
> 
> Scary stuff but if they can get away with it...




Even worse, the items they call "Operating Cash Flow" can sometimes (and regularly are) capital distributions from unlisted investments, which may themselves actually be severely operating cash flow deficient, masking the level of distribution covered by actual operating cash flow. I have said it many times - MQG's satellite funds have wonderful reports, but have you ever seen them show you proportional ownership operating cash flow (regardless of whether they have below a 50% stake in the entity) versus their distribution - there's a reason they don't and it isn't in the essence of transparency..... The MQG infrastructure business is just one giant pyramid scheme....

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

My son just lobbed his savings, $120,000 onto this mob at $59... no diversification... nothing... butt the b....er has jumped on so many at their lows recwntly that I am starting to take notce,,,,  by the way he heard that it was a good bye.. oops.. buy.. on the radio as he was driving around Perth in his courier job....
   Has me worried..

  A Y day today??/   Yep..   :drink:  
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Macquack

Kauri said:


> My son just lobbed his savings, $120,000 onto this mob at $59... no diversification... nothing... butt the b....er has jumped on so many at their lows recwntly that I am starting to take notce,,,,  by the way he heard that it was a good bye.. oops.. buy.. on the radio as he was driving around Perth in his courier job....
> Has me worried..
> 
> A Y day today??/   Yep..   :drink:
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Was that a buy recommendation from a Macquarie Radio Network owned station?
Good to see reece55 and Mofra are seeing the light.


----------



## reece55

Macquack said:


> Good to see reece55 and Mofra are seeing the light.




Seeing the light?????

I think I have been shining my halogen down every ASF members eye sockets since I joined this forum, have a look through the thread!!!!!!!!!!

Cheers


----------



## Macquack

reece55 said:


> Seeing the light?????
> 
> I think I have been shining my halogen down every ASF members eye sockets since I joined this forum, have a look through the thread!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> Cheers




Sorry reece55, I only joined the forum today and had only read you latest post.
I now have read all your previous posts and agree with you position 100%. Funny how some members dont like the truth and brand you a traitor to the MacFaith.
These forums are full of generalisations, so I will have a crack at one myself. Historically, public infrasture has proved to be unprofitable (eg private railroads). Yet the millionaires factory has been able to turn this investment class upside down and make it highly profitable (creative accounting)? I beleive if Macquarie is to last long term, its model will rely heavily on inflation across the board.


----------



## Mofra

Macquack said:


> These forums are full of generalisations, so I will have a crack at one myself. Historically, public infrasture has proved to be unprofitable (eg private railroads). Yet the millionaires factory has been able to turn this investment class upside down and make it highly profitable (creative accounting)? I beleive if Macquarie is to last long term, its model will rely heavily on inflation across the board.



_Owning_ public infrastructure is unprofitable - taking management fees from the infrastructure and selling the risk onto "sophisticated investors" appears, on the surface, to be a working model.

The model will stop working when, logically, the management start taking out more cashflow than is generated, especially if this is done via a revaluation of assets & the management fees are drawn from borrowings (and as reece pointed out, Mac revalue the assets themselves). I wouldn't be expecting the parent entity to crumble anytime soon, however the price may take a battering if (when?) one of their major seperately listed funds is forced into administration - the loss of management fees will hurt fundamentally, however the loss of confidence & prestige alone will hurt their ability to raise cash for further activity (again hurting fundamentals) whilst that wonderful commodity, sentiment, will take a ripe old beating.


----------



## Trader52

Kauri, sleep easy.  Your son has made a sound choice, although he should not put all his investment into ANY one stock.  At the end of the year with MQG at around $80 he will turn a nice $40 odd k profit before tax.  There will be a few ups & downs along the way, but unless the general markets head south big time it will do OK.  Reece55 and the other nay sayers will continue to hate the Mac model, with some justification, but it continues to deliver.  There were plenty of traders shorting Mac and other stocks that rely on lending and some of their short plays (Centro and other LPT's) paid off big time, but the Mac model is different.  Mac has shown that its sp reacts with greater swings to news (+ve and -ve) about financial issues, so it is a higher risk/reward play then most.  I would feel safe buying at this level, but would be more cautious above $70.


----------



## Mofra

Trader52 said:


> Kauri, sleep easy.  Your son has made a sound choice, although he should not put all his investment into ANY one stock.  At the end of the year with MQG at around $80 he will turn a nice $40 odd k profit before tax.  There will be a few ups & downs along the way, but unless the general markets head south big time it will do OK.  *Reece55 and the other nay sayers will continue to hate the Mac model*, with some justification, but it continues to deliver.  There were plenty of traders shorting Mac and other stocks that rely on lending and some of their short plays (Centro and other LPT's) paid off big time, but the Mac model is different.  Mac has shown that its sp reacts with greater swings to news (+ve and -ve) about financial issues, so it is a higher risk/reward play then most.  I would feel safe buying at this level, but would be more cautious above $70.




Now there's a big fat unjustified generalisation. I don't hate the Mac model, but see dangers in borrowing continually to pay management fees & dividends (from the spun-off entities). But since when has unbridled access to credit ever been a problem 

Now, do you have any technical or fundamental analysis to justify your price targets?


----------



## reece55

Trader52 said:


> Kauri, sleep easy.  Your son has made a sound choice, although he should not put all his investment into ANY one stock.  At the end of the year with MQG at around $80 he will turn a nice $40 odd k profit before tax.  There will be a few ups & downs along the way, but unless the general markets head south big time it will do OK.  Reece55 and the other nay sayers will continue to hate the Mac model, with some justification, but it continues to deliver.  There were plenty of traders shorting Mac and other stocks that rely on lending and some of their short plays (Centro and other LPT's) paid off big time, but the Mac model is different.  Mac has shown that its sp reacts with greater swings to news (+ve and -ve) about financial issues, so it is a higher risk/reward play then most.  I would feel safe buying at this level, but would be more cautious above $70.




Thank you Mofra.... I'm all for an educated debate and you certainly have been a heavy un biased contributor on this thread, I certainly appreciate it.

Trader52, you are going to have to do a little better on this one, as per Mofra....

Can you please explain why your $80 target is justified from a F/A or T/A perspective....

I'm also interested on how the model "continues to deliver". Nay, in fact in the last 8 months, it has significantly under delivered?

Why would you be cautious above $70????

Cheers


----------



## reece55

Mofra said:


> _Owning_ public infrastructure is unprofitable - taking management fees from the infrastructure and selling the risk onto "sophisticated investors" appears, on the surface, to be a working model.
> 
> The model will stop working when, logically, the management start taking out more cashflow than is generated, especially if this is done via a revaluation of assets & the management fees are drawn from borrowings (and as reece pointed out, Mac revalue the assets themselves). I wouldn't be expecting the parent entity to crumble anytime soon, however the price may take a battering if (when?) one of their major seperately listed funds is forced into administration - the loss of management fees will hurt fundamentally, however the loss of confidence & prestige alone will hurt their ability to raise cash for further activity (again hurting fundamentals) whilst that wonderful commodity, sentiment, will take a ripe old beating.




Mofra, the issue is they are and have for a long time been taking out cash well in excess of the actual flows generated from the assets themselves. Even with the mature assets such as Sydney Airport, EBITDA doesn't cover the distribution, borrowings fill the gap.

However, I will happily concede that the parent is unlikely to crumble due to the way they have set up the structure - the majority of the risk resides in the satellites, MacBank do shelve assets on their balance sheet, but most are  either the cream of the crop or intended for resale.

The other point I would make is that MacBank did do the smart thing with their satellites by cashing most of them up before the crash - notably MIG and MAP have large cash reserves at the present stage. They might need it when they re-finance though, no wonder they haven't re-invested the dough!

Cheers


----------



## Macquack

Mofra said:


> _Owning_ public infrastructure is unprofitable - taking management fees from the infrastructure and selling the risk onto "sophisticated investors" appears, on the surface, to be a working model.
> 
> The model will stop working when, logically, the management start taking out more cashflow than is generated, especially if this is done via a revaluation of assets & the management fees are drawn from borrowings (and as reece pointed out, Mac revalue the assets themselves). I wouldn't be expecting the parent entity to crumble anytime soon, however the price may take a battering if (when?) one of their major seperately listed funds is forced into administration - the loss of management fees will hurt fundamentally, however the loss of confidence & prestige alone will hurt their ability to raise cash for further activity (again hurting fundamentals) whilst that wonderful commodity, sentiment, will take a ripe old beating.




If you cant beat them, join them.
The Macquarie model has proven so successful I have adopted it myself. It goes something like this :
The Macquack Model
1. I decide to buy a 1975 Leyland P76 for $1000 cash I borrowed off my good mate Cecil.
2. I study my Shannon's Classic Car Catalogue and discover this model could be worth up to $1500 in concourse condition.
3. I wash the car and then sell the car to myself for $1500 and turn a tidy profit of $500.
4. I insist I do my own maintenance and will only charge myself at the same reasonable rate as Rowley Motors Artarmon (Jaguar Division).
5. After all my hard work (both mechanical and financial engineering) I decide I deserve a beer.
6. Being penniless and realising my initial $500 profit was only a paper profit, I cry poor and successfully bludge an extra $50 off Cecil who just happens to also own a Leyland P76 and recon's "I've got a classic on my hands".


----------



## Julia

Having made some good money out of MQG, I've been out for several months.
The SP largely represents the caution felt by the market at large, the reasons for which have been well provided on this thread.

It doesn't seem too long ago, less than a year I think, that there was speculation about who would reach the $100 SP first:  MQG or RIO.
Not much of a contest now, huh!


----------



## Gekko

Julia said:


> Having made some good money out of MQG, I've been out for several months.
> The SP largely represents the caution felt by the market at large, the reasons for which have been well provided on this thread.
> 
> It doesn't seem too long ago, less than a year I think, that there was speculation about who would reach the $100 SP first:  MQG or RIO.
> Not much of a contest now, huh!






Yeh, theyve really moved in opposite directions. MQG has had an incredible rebound, but i get the feeling it will get tested at least once more. Their still exist major constraints in debt markets and macquarie are going to find it far more expensive to borrow, service and repay their thousands of infrastructure assets


----------



## Gekko

Took some shorts out today with a tight stop at $65.50. Im going against the trend here but if things turn against the financials again, the shorts will drag it down.


----------



## Mofra

reece55 said:


> Mofra, the issue is they are and have for a long time been taking out cash well in excess of the actual flows generated from the assets themselves. Even with the mature assets such as Sydney Airport, EBITDA doesn't cover the distribution, borrowings fill the gap.
> 
> *However, I will happily concede that the parent is unlikely to crumble due to the way they have set up the structure - the majority of the risk resides in the satellites, MacBank do shelve assets on their balance sheet, but most are  either the cream of the crop or intended for resale.*
> 
> The other point I would make is that MacBank did do the smart thing with their satellites by cashing most of them up before the crash - notably MIG and MAP have large cash reserves at the present stage. They might need it when they re-finance though, no wonder they haven't re-invested the dough!
> 
> Cheers



You've summed up well the point I was trying to make. A false economy of higher earnings is supported by an ever-growing debt level that risks hurting underlying cashflows as servicing the debt becomes a greater proportion of underlying cash-flow for each seperate sun-off entity. Even if the parent entity is protected from any default, they are not protected from a loss in earnings/management fees in the unfortunate event of even defensive action having to be taken.

They are possibly the most interesting company on the ASX (or really, group of companies, as Mac Group divisions tend not to talk to each other very much). Reasonable track record (the low-ball offer for the FTSE was classic, and whilst everyone slated them for it, they took out London Water. Classic diversionary tactic) and solid working business model, just overly reliant on credit to keep profititibility at current levels.


----------



## Gekko

Gekko said:


> Took some shorts out today with a tight stop at $65.50. Im going against the trend here but if things turn against the financials again, the shorts will drag it down.






Choose the right day to short yesterday. Down 2.7% today. I actually added a few more with a stop loss at 65.5 this morning. Great management, other factors may bring it sub 55-60 again.


----------



## Macquack

*The Holey Dollar Story*

The Macquarie Bank/Group's corporate logo has always puzzled me.

"In 1813 Governor Lachlan Macquarie overcame an acute currency shortage by purchasing Spanish silver dollars (then worth five shillings), punching out the centres and creating two new coins - the 'Holey Dollar' (valued at five shillings) and the Dump (valued at one shilling and three pence). This single move *not only doubled the number of coins in circulation but increased their total worth by 25 per cent *and prevented the coins from leaving the colony."
This is a quote straight from Macquarie Groups own website.

Taking this principle forward into the twentieth century Mr Moss, Moore & Co. set about cutting the heart, I meant to say centre out of all newly acquired coins for themselves. They then sell off the remainder of the coins (with a hole in them) to unsuspecting investors for their face value (or more if a bonus is involved).

And the geniuses at the MacHouse of Cards proudly adopt this symbol of *banking fraud* as their corporate logo.

Does anybody else see the irony in this?


----------



## stoxclimber

Now now Macquack. While your name suggests you may have a bit of a tiff with Macquarie, it's a long bow to draw to call the official action of the governor of the colony "banking fraud". Why, if you said such a thing back at the time, it no doubt would have been off with your head.

The Holey Dollar is meant to symbolise financial innovation.


----------



## Macquack

stoxclimber said:


> Now now Macquack. While your name suggests you may have a bit of a tiff with Macquarie, it's a long bow to draw to call the official action of the governor of the colony "banking fraud". Why, if you said such a thing back at the time, it no doubt would have been off with your head.
> 
> The Holey Dollar is meant to symbolise financial innovation.





More like finacial illusion.
Mr Mossy is in fact, a world class illusionist.

Whats this crap about a minimum 100 characters?

Macquack


----------



## reece55

Mofra said:


> They are possibly the most interesting company on the ASX (or really, group of companies, as Mac Group divisions tend not to talk to each other very much). Reasonable track record (the low-ball offer for the FTSE was classic, and whilst everyone slated them for it, they took out London Water. Classic diversionary tactic) and solid working business model, just overly reliant on credit to keep profititibility at current levels.




Definitely agree Mofra, a complex beast of a companies that is most interesting on many levels. The low bid for LSE was a stroke of genius! I think their business model however is hopelessly flawed on the infrastructure side of the equation, because it's a black box approach (trust us, the assets are worth X - we just find it hard to demonstrate why by using normal financial valuation methods!).



Macquack said:


> More like finacial illusion.
> Mr Mossy is in fact, a world class illusionist.
> 
> Whats this crap about a minimum 100 characters?
> 
> Macquack




Macquack, the 100 char rule is to encourage people to make meaningful posts. And on that subject, do you want elaborate on why Mr Moss is a world class illusionist, or is this just a passing comment? If it is, perhaps add it to a post with more substance?

Cheers


----------



## Macquack

reece55 said:


> Macquack, the 100 char rule is to encourage people to make meaningful posts. And on that subject, do you want elaborate on why Mr Moss is a world class illusionist, or is this just a passing comment? If it is, perhaps add it to a post with more substance?
> 
> Cheers




Firstly, How do you say "I agree with You or yes" in 100 characters, without restating a comment?
Secondly, I'm on your team here, so why are you questioning my comment when it is largely based on all your posts in this forum.
Your Avatar would suggest you are also suspicious of financial engineers/creative accountants/money magicians which create short-term gains at the expense of long-term survival.


----------



## reece55

Macquack said:


> Firstly, How do you say "I agree with You or yes" in 100 characters, without restating a comment?
> Secondly, I'm on your team here, so why are you questioning my comment when it is largely based on all your posts in this forum.
> Your Avatar would suggest you are also suspicious of financial engineers/creative accountants/money magicians which create short-term gains at the expense of long-term survival.




Mate, I don't have a vendetta against MQG here! What I have posted on the MQG thread is analysis of their business model, specifically their infrastructure business, on a high strategic level and numbers level. This is to express my frustration at the lack of transparency in the business, which is frustrating and to educate investors about what the company is actually doing.

I'm not questioning what you've written in your post, I asking you to elaborate - simply saying that Mr Moss is an illusionist doesn't have much depth, I'm after an informed debate, not simply having a go at the Company. 

Cheers


----------



## Macquack

reece55 said:


> Mate, I don't have a vendetta against MQG here! What I have posted on the MQG thread is analysis of their business model, specifically their infrastructure business, on a high strategic level and numbers level. This is to express my frustration at the *lack of transparency *in the business, which is frustrating and to educate investors about what the company is actually doing.
> 
> I'm not questioning what you've written in your post, I asking you to elaborate - simply saying that Mr Moss is an illusionist doesn't have much depth, I'm after an informed debate, not simply having a go at the Company.
> 
> Cheers




OK you got me, I am over generalising, but just one more.
I translate your term "*lack of transparency*" to read "smoke screen created by illusionist to trick audience".


----------



## Gekko

reece55 said:


> Mate, I don't have a vendetta against MQG here! What I have posted on the MQG thread is analysis of their business model, specifically their infrastructure business, on a high strategic level and numbers level. This is to express my frustration at the lack of transparency in the business, which is frustrating and to educate investors about what the company is actually doing.
> 
> I'm not questioning what you've written in your post, I asking you to elaborate - simply saying that Mr Moss is an illusionist doesn't have much depth, I'm after an informed debate, not simply having a go at the Company.
> 
> Cheers






looks, lets cut to the chase, financial engineering is about taking out debt on debt on debt on debt and making the marginal gains above the costs of debt (ir) to make gains. in a environment where the cost of that debt service is cheap, it is highly profitable, but in an environment where that cost rises, margins are squeezed and it becomes a lot harder profit.

Financial engineering is to company's, what margin lending is to investors.

i am still short MQG but admire Alan Moss immensely


----------



## Macquack

Gekko said:


> i am still short MQG but admire Alan Moss immensely




Kind of a contradictory statement.
If you admired Allan Moss so immensely (I gather for doing such a great job with investors funds), why would you short MQG?


----------



## Mofra

Macquack said:


> Kind of a contradictory statement.
> If you admired Allan Moss so immensely (I gather for doing such a great job with investors funds), why would you short MQG?



The smart a**e reply would be because he is the _outgoing boss 

For mine, he has basically turned an outpost small company Hills Samuel into a global player. Regardless of what I think about their valuation models or their methodology of setting management fees for infrastructure funds, he has grown the company enormously and did have the foresight to raise $6b before August 07 credit rumblings._


----------



## Macquack

Mofra said:


> The smart a**e reply would be because he is the _outgoing boss._



_



Fair comment, Mofra, but is Allan Moss the only smuck at Macqaurie Bank with the immensely admirable skill of rorting the masses?_


----------



## nick2fish

At least Alan Moss & Co are capable of organizing a bridge to be built to....
Get Over Things  I am fine with criticism of the Mac bank set up, but one line slanging move to another thread.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Nevermind


----------



## Gekko

Gekko said:


> Choose the right day to short yesterday. Down 2.7% today. I actually added a few more with a stop loss at 65.5 this morning. Great management, other factors may bring it sub 55-60 again.






I closed out all my MQG shorts today. I dont see much value shorting from these levels. The recent damage has been done.


----------



## Macquack

Macquarie Group, Columbus Capital, RHG: Australian Bond Alert 

By Laura Cochrane

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Macquarie Group Ltd., Columbus Capital and the Victoria Government lead companies considering selling bonds in Australia. 

Sales of corporate bonds have reached A$30.9 billion ($29.7 billion) in Australia this year, up from A$28.2 billion in the same period in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. About A$2 billion of asset-backed and structured finance bonds have been sold this year. 

The following is a description of pending sales of corporate and other bonds in Australia. 

Asset-Backed 

MACQUARIE GROUP LTD., Australia biggest investment bank, is gauging investor interest in a sale of about A$250 million of *bonds backed by low-documentation loans* as part of its PUMA securitization program, according to three investors familiar with the discussions. Matthew O'Hare, group treasurer at Macquarie in Sydney, said the firm is in constant talks with investors about issues and gauging levels of interest in new deals. Low-documentation loans require less income proof than standard mortgages. 


MACQUARIE GROUP LTD., Australia biggest investment bank, plans to sell A$650 million of *bonds backed by leases* to European and Australian investors under its SMART Trust program, said Paul Bide, head of debt markets at Macquarie in Sydney. The European portion of the bonds will likely price to yield about 130 basis points more than the three-month Euro interbank offered rate, said a person familiar with deal, who declined to be identified.


----------



## Macquack

Macquarie Bank up to its usual dirty tricks.

heraldsun.com.au
George Lekakis
May 29, 2008 12:00am

*Macquarie's big blue*

MACQUARIE Bank is hoping it can grab thousands of dollars from up to 1000 borrowers set to refinance their home loans with rival lenders.

In an embarrassing move, Macquarie's mortgage arm has told borrowers that "errors" were made in the wording of their official loan contracts signed since 2005. 

Macquarie has written to the affected customers in a bid to *change contractual *terms so that it can *levy fees *to recover mortgage insurance from borrowers about to refinance their loans. 

Macquarie has been hit with a wave of refinancings in the past two months after it hiked rates on most of its home loan products above 10 per cent. 

"When clients take out loans with us they're told verbally that we will absorb their lender's mortgage insurance if they don't discharge the loan within three years," she said. 

"These letters are a correction because this condition was not included in the loan agreements. 

*"It's not changing the contract because all we're doing is correcting something that was obviously an error." *

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23775094-664,00.html


----------



## Macquack

*Macquarie Asks European Central Bank for Repo Eligibility on Asset-Backed Bonds *
By Laura Cochrane

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Macquarie Group Ltd., Australia's biggest investment bank, has asked the European Central Bank to accept as much as $1.1 billion of asset-backed bonds it plans to sell in Europe this week as collateral for lending agreements. 

Macquarie would become the first bank to sell bonds secured by loans to consumers in Australia that are eligible for repurchase agreements, or repos, with the ECB, said Adrian Bentley, head of debt finance at Macquarie. Repos allow buyers of the debt to swap the securities with the central bank in exchange for cash, giving them access to cheaper funding. 

Macquarie last week increased the planned sale of bonds by 85 percent to A$1.2 billion ($1.15 billion). It will be Australia's biggest issue of debt secured by property, *auto* or consumer loans since June 21 last year when St George Bank Ltd. raised more than A$2 billion selling mortgage-backed bonds. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aIUR12i67Jy4&refer=asia

Is there such a thing as "sub-prime" bonds ?


----------



## prawn_86

Macquack said:


> Is there such a thing as "sub-prime" bonds ?




"Junk" bonds could probably be considered sub prime. 

Hell even micro cap shares (or some larger ones!) could be considered below prime/good, which is essentially all sub prime means


----------



## golfmos123

You've got to love volatility in a market.  Jumped into MQG on Wed this week, jumped back out just on close Fri.   Easiest 8% I've made this week.  There do seem to be a number of opportunities around like this at the moment without having to dip into the spec end of town.

Come to think about it, might start a new forum on this - could be interesting, stay tuned....


----------



## Macquack

*What is MacGrab up to now?*

*Macquarie finds $1b under nose*
Stuart Washington 
June 10, 2008 

MACQUARIE GROUP just found a cool $1 billion *under its bed* to address the high price of debt - or actually, *under the beds of pensioners and superannuation investors.*

With little fuss, Macquarie has converted the cash accounts of investors in its super manager and pension manager "wrap" investment products into deposits in Macquarie Bank.

Investors with a total of $1 billion in cash accounts have been given little choice in the matter: the switch occurred in May whether or not the investors wanted to make the move.

Or, as Macquarie told its investors in a leaflet about the change: "*No action is required from you."*
Investors have been swapped from the AAA-rated Macquarie Treasury Fund - which invests in a variety of money market products - into a deposit with Macquarie Group's banking division, which is rated two notches lower at A-1.

*Investors have to deliberately opt out *of the move by switching their cash into another cash fund if they do not want to become a depositor with the bank. *Even then, they will have to maintain a minimum of $2500 *in the cash account as a deposit in Macquarie, as part of their participation in the "wrap" investment platform.

For a bank, more deposits are a bonus because they are a cheaper source of funding than is available on the wholesale debt-funding market.

As a result of the liquidity crisis, the amount a bank pays for its wholesale funding has grown dramatically, with banks paying up to 2 percentage points more than before the crisis pushed up prices.

The official line on the switch is that the trustee, Macquarie Investment Management, found an opportunity for a 0.2 percentage point increase in investor returns for the cash account of the superannuation and pension products.

"It's the trustee deciding to get a better return for clients," Macquarie's head of product, Tony Graham, said.

Macquarie Group will not receive more fees from the change.

Australian depositors are protected by strict regulations. But a product disclosure statement notes a deposit in Macquarie is not diversified among a number of products, as was the case with the Macquarie Treasury Fund.

"It is a concentrated investment in a single asset, being a deposit with Macquarie Bank," it says.


Looks like the MAC Truck is running out of fuel.


----------



## Macquack

*Directors defend Macquarie valuations*

http://business.theage.com.au/directors-defend-macquarie-valuations-20080610-2okw.html

What goes up must never come down.


----------



## Macquack

*Telstra and Macquarie Bank unite in broadband network bid*
June 21, 2008 
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23896810-664,00.html

MACQUARIE Group has withdrawn its bid for the Rudd Government's national broadband network tender, leaving it with only two contenders for the $12 billion project. Telstra and the Optus-led consortium Terria (formerly G9) are the remaining bidders prepared to pursue the project on a national scale.

Now Telstra and Macquarie have announced they will join forces in a bid with Macquarie Capital Advisers acting as financial adviser to Telstra. 

Macquarie is finally realising that it is *not an expert in every industry on earth*. 
Easier to leave it to the experts and just concentrate on counting the beans.


----------



## Gekko

Correct me if im mistaken but didnt Mac try to take over PCCW 3 years ago. From memory it was an unsavory deal.


http://www.penews.com/today/index/content/2451244036

US buyout groups drawn to PCCW sell off
Nisha Gopalan and Lorraine Luk, The Wall Street Journal
15 Jul 2008
PCCW is seeking around US$2.5bn (â‚¬1.6bn) for a 45% stake in its HKT Group Holdings unit and has received interest from several US private-equity firms, people familiar with the deal said Monday.

TPG Capital and Providence Equity Partners are the front-runners for HKT Group, which combines PCCW's telecommunications, media and information-technology operations, these people said. "There are many bidders for the stake, but Providence and TPG are the most serious," one person said. "They're the ones who are likely to have bid the highest."

Australia's Macquarie Bank, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Blackstone Group also have expressed interest, the people familiar with the situation said.

UBS, PCCW's financial adviser, said it had received a number of proposals as of the deadline Monday. UBS declined to name the bidders.

Officials at PCCW, Providence, Macquarie and KKR declined to comment. Representatives from TPG and Blackstone weren't immediately available for comment.

Another person familiar with the situation said there will be a second round of bids due in early August.

PCCW in May said it would form HKT Group to improve operating efficiency and facilitate a listing. PCCW intends to retain at least a 55% stake in HKT.

PCCW chairman Richard Li in 2006 received offers from private-equity firm TPG-Newbridge and Macquarie to buy PCCW's main telecommunications and media assets. But staunch resistance from PCCW's second-largest shareholder – state-owned China Network Communications Group – stemming from Beijing's concerns that the Hong Kong telecom firm would fall into foreign hands, led Li to abandon the deal.

PCCW shares ended down 1.2% at 4.87 Hong Kong dollars (62 US cents) on the Hong Kong stock exchange Monday.

Daiwa analyst Marvin Lo said the stake sale should provide a short-term boost for PCCW's shares but won't change the company's fundamentals. "Investors need to know more about how PCCW will use the sale proceeds. I feel that PCCW has identified some new business targets in overseas markets, but the company declined to give details." Lo has a "hold" rating on the stock with a target price of HK$4.67.

PCCW said in June it plans to use proceeds from the sale to repay existing debt. According to the company's annual report, PCCW's net debt totaled HK$21.99bn (US$2.82bn) at the end of 2007.

The Wall Street Journal is owned by Dow Jones, which is also the parent company of Private Equity News.


----------



## legs

By Denny Thomas

July 23, 2008 01:47pm

MACQUARIE shares have jumped 10 per cent in their biggest one-day rise in nearly four months after the company said it had a solid start to the 2009 fiscal year, allaying worries about its business model.

Macquarie (mqg.ASX:Quote,News), which manages about $232 billion in infrastructure and real estate assets globally, added a note of caution saying it would struggle to repeat last year's record performance, placing it on course for a first profit drop in 17 years. 

Macquarie, like other global investment banks, has suffered from slower deal flows amid a global credit crunch, while volatile equity markets have forced many businesses to shelve capital raising plans, denting Macquarie's revenue growth. 

Macquarie shares rose as much as 10.1 per cent to $51.31 in morning trading, but are still well below the share's high of $98.64 in May 2007. 

"They are still doing better than all their peers ... the longer term investment proposition in Macquarie hasn't changed," said Donald Williams, a fund manager with Platypus Asset Management, which manages $1.6 billion, including Macquarie shares. 

"They are still performing exceptionally well given the environment relative to other investment banks," he added. 

In a statement ahead of its annual shareholders meeting on Wednesday, Macquarie said its April-June profit was below the year-ago quarter. 

Macquarie had liquid assets worth about $20.3 billion at the end of June, nearly three times those in March, to benefit from any opportunities arising from the challenging environment. It also had about $3.6 billion in excess capital, above the regulatory requirement. 

Macquarie scooped up distressed assets in the wake of the last financial crisis that hit Asia in the late 1990s, buying ING's Asian equities business in 2004 and BT Australia in 1999. 

Analysts forecast Macquarie's net profit will drop 6 per cent to $1.69 billion in the year to March 2009. 

Attractive valuations 

Still, it has fared relatively well compared to the hefty losses announced by several Wall Street banks due to their exposure to subprime mortgages. 

Shares in Macquarie's smaller local rivals Babcock & Brown and Allco Finance Group have been hit hard by concerns about high debt levels. Both Babcock and Allco have been forced to sell assets to lower their gearing. 

Macquarie's AGM is the first under new CEO Nicholas Moore, who took charge in May replacing Allan Moss, who had led the company for 15 years. 

Despite today's gains, Macquarie shares are down about 34 per cent so far this year, exceeding a 20 per cent fall in the benchmark index.


----------



## Family_Guy

Anyone got some news on why this fell thru 52 weeks lows this morning? Looks like a good price for this stock for what it's been trading, but is something wrong i can't find? Or is it just the markets?


----------



## justjohn

Really getting smashed at present down almost 10%,just waiting to jump in no news anywhere for reason


----------



## Family_Guy

Only thing i can see is when i went to place an order it i was warned it is trading ex-div. I think also some stop losses may have been triggered.


----------



## deadset

This was the last dividend right ?
Final 200.00 100 26 May, 08 04 Jul, 08 

Looks like its come up from $41.6 now.

I did a knee-jerk buy without considering why it would drop, I remember there was a drop in Investment Banks on Monday in the US, is this a delayed reaction ?  Or is this more to do with drops in profit from some of their big funds ?

Either I got lucky, or there's something else we don't know.


----------



## deadset

I remember a few Aussie companies getting burned with Hong Kong Teleco's before.  It's not a done deal with MQG and PCCW anyway, so maybe an overreaction there.


----------



## TRICKETT

News just in from our financial planner is that macquarie has exposure to 400 billion dollars worth of loans that are propping up the US banks at the moment something the do with china. will keep you posted if more news comes my way. 


I hold MQG and will continue to hold.


----------



## prawn_86

Trickett, please quote your source otherwise your post will be removed as it cannot be verified and is considered ramping/downramping.

thanks

Prawn


----------



## andrew08

Just read on commsecs lunch time report UBS had downgraded its price forecast from $60 to $48. They're expecting writedowns on a lot of MQG assets.


----------



## Julia

> =TRICKETT;328281
> 
> I hold MQG and will continue to hold.



Will you?   Even if MQG were to go the way of BNB?  Would you be like the thousands of people who have watched their capital dwindle as the SP dropped?
I'm not suggesting this will happen, but I'm just curious that anyone would make such a categorical statement after the failures we've seen recently.


----------



## Aussiest

When do we find out about these supposed 'asset' writedowns?

They should never be allowed to publish something like that until they have evidence.

It's doctoring the market IMO. There was a lot of heavy selling on Monday and yesterday, before this news was announced, so i wonder...


----------



## YELNATS

Aussiest said:


> When do we find out about these supposed 'asset writedowns'?
> 
> Sometimes i wonder about all these warnings... Perhaps someone is short selling?




I just wonder about the credibility of the post from TRICKETT (just arrived from Beijing?). On the one hand he/she inspires concern over an alleged 400 billion of risky loans that MQH has exposure to, and on the other he/she says will continue to hold. 

The post doesn't make much sense at all.


----------



## austini

Hi gang,

I occasionally pop in here for a look but this is my first post.

It's amazing how much of an impact a single broker can have on a stock.  At least that is all I hope it is.  Anyhow the company is run by great people and I certainly don't think you could possibly put it in the same category as BNB.  So as a long term income investor, for better or worse, I just keep nibbling away at MQG as it falls.  Even if they substantially cut the divididend hopefully it is will still be reasonable.  

Cheers - gordon


----------



## Aussiest

Sorry, i did edit my post after you had posted.

I'm not sure either, but it does say something about the UBS on the Commsec website. It annoys me that an international bank is allowed to influence our markets so much. It makes me think somebody is short selling (i'm sure a lot of people are short selling right now), because there was massive and aggressive selling on Monday and yesterday, and that was before the UBS 'news' today. It wreaks of inside information if you ask me.


----------



## Aussiest

austini said:


> Hi gang,
> 
> I occasionally pop in here for a look but this is my first post.
> 
> It's amazing how much of an impact a single broker can have on a stock.  At least that is all I hope it is.  Anyhow the company is run by great people and I certainly don't think you could possibly put it in the same category as BNB.  So as a long term income investor, for better or worse, I just keep nibbling away at MQG as it falls.  Even if they substantially cut the divididend hopefully it is will still be reasonable.
> 
> Cheers - gordon




Yeah, i was gonna keep it too, but after the BNB debarcle, i freaked out... Don't wanna risk my capital. We'll see how it goes over the next week or so.

I have my suspicions about the future price action, but i am not going to post it till after it happens . Wouldn't want to be influencing anyone would i?!

Oh yeah, the 'broker influence' thing sucks. That's what i mean... what is stopping them from telling their friends in Australia that they are about to announce a downgrade? Quick Fred, sell up big (short sell), and i'll announce on Tuesday night.


----------



## Pager

Well i got out of Macquarie today, having learnt a lesson with AFG and holding a falling stock only to be smashed even harder, so i cut this one loose 

Not saying its going to become a basket case like AFG, or get hit like BNB but you just have to look at all the stocks around it in the same or similar business which have been smashed and it although down is still holding up.

Its business is heavily linked to debt markets that have been absolutely slaughtered and IMO any bad news from this stock and its going to be back below $30 in a flash.

You gotta also wonder how all its satellite funds are doing ?, for which MQG earns fees ????.


----------



## Family_Guy

I noticed some pretty big buy orders in the last 15 minutes. quite a few 5000, lots of 1 and 2k's and even a couple of 10k's......also a big one of maybe 15k as it broke $42 at the end of the day. So obviously someone thinks it's a good buy.....i thought it was a good buy, i hope it was at least.


----------



## nomore4s

The thing that worries me with MQG is the fact they haven't run into any problems yet, but companies with similar business models the world over have been hit extremely hard. I find it hard to believe that MQG will escape as unscathed as they have so far.

You only have to look at BNB & AFG for Aussie stocks that had supposedly strong businesses and would ride this storm out but.............

I just hope the management aren't playing funny buggers and hiding things - fear & greed do strange things.

I think it's only a matter of time before we start to see some big write offs for MQG.


----------



## austini

In my case I only started buying MQG a couple of weeks ago and have subsequently nibbled at it  when it falls heavily.  So essentially MacBank was over 40% down from its yearly high when I started buying.  However I don't think I would be feeling too excited if I had purchased the stock in the high nineties last year.  Hopefully the company continues to remain fundamentally sound and I don't find myself averaging down to zero I only risk catching the falling knife on stocks I consider likely to survive so hopefully I don't get cut to pieces  The critical thing for me is that it continues to keep paying an accepable dividend.  It that looks under threat for an extended period then I'm out.

Cheers


----------



## Aussiest

Family_Guy said:


> I noticed some pretty big buy orders in the last 15 minutes. quite a few 5000, lots of 1 and 2k's and even a couple of 10k's......also a big one of maybe 15k as it broke $42 at the end of the day. So obviously someone thinks it's a good buy.....i thought it was a good buy, i hope it was at least.




Yes, but they could have been short sellers buying back in. Just my opinion. Or, it may have hit a bottom.... who knows?! I think i'll remain skeptical until an announcement is made.


----------



## Aussiest

austini said:


> In my case I only started buying MQG a couple of weeks ago and have been subsequently nibbling away at it when it falls heavily.  So essentially MacBank was over 40% down from its yearly high when I started buying.  However I don't think I would be feeling too excited if I had purchased the stock in the high nineties last year.  Hopefully the company continues to remain fundamentally sound and I don't find myself averaging down to zero I only risk catching the falling knife on stocks I consider likely to survive so hopefully I don't get cut to pieces  The critical thing for me is that it continues to keep paying an accepable dividend.  It that looks under threat for an extended period then I'm out.
> 
> Cheers




Yes, and if it has these writedowns, then the dividend may well be cut. I don't know though, so don't take my word on it.

I just wish the likes of UBS would keep their mouths shut until they had *substantiated *proof.

MQG had better hurry up and make an announcement.


----------



## Aussiest

Oh yeah, i got out of MQG and bought some BNB. Joke :


----------



## golfmos123

Yes, an interesting day today.  One little report and a stock goes to pot.

I see an opportunity here with such a dramatic fall - either it falls further or it bounces back somewhat.  I've jumped in late today looking for just a 1-2 day hold and an upwards bounce.  Countered with a very tight stop so that I don't suffer badly if it is going to keep going south like AFG and BNB.

Can't help but think today was a massive overreaction.

I guess I'll be judged in a couple of days time......


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> MQG is in a down trend with lowers lows and lower highs since the lows of August last year.
> 
> It may appear cheap now, but if it goes below $60 on higher volume there is nothing on the charts to give it support until $50.
> 
> It  has also broken below the 30 week moving average and "loseable money" would be required to buy in , until it has trended sideways in a range for a few months. This may occur over the next few months, it may continue downwards.
> 
> It may even go below $50. After that $30 is the next support. Have a look at the enclosed chart.
> 
> "Brave" would be an accurate description for a buyer of MQG in this market.
> 
> gg




I have been concerned for many years about MQG's ability to fund their loans in a downturn.

They appear now to be the sick man of the asx. 

The latest chart shows a continuation of the downtrend with the risk that hedge funds will now commene aggressive shorting of the stock. 

At these low prices few bigger players will be inclined to  support MQG and go long'

A chart shows the inexorable fall of mqg to a projected $30 on e/w principles. 


gg


----------



## Aussiest

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The latest chart shows a continuation of the downtrend with the risk that hedge funds will now commene aggressive shorting of the stock.
> gg




I think you could be right. I was looking at the market depth in real time, as it happened, yesterday and on Monday and you should have seen the sell orders coming in relentlessly and on quite large volume at times. Just when i thought it was all over, there more more massive sell orders at previous support levels such as $45 and $46. At one stage today, there were only about 76 buyers for 120,000 units, compared with around 700 sellers for 100s of thousands of units.

Please do not quote me on the above mentioned information, i did not take a screen print. The point i am trying to make is that at one stage, the sellers heavily outweighed the buyers. 

I decided not to buy in as i didn't want to be short sellers' fodder.

(please note, i did make a loss on this stock, so i am not trying to move the price either way).


----------



## Family_Guy

> At one stage today, there were only about 76 buyers for 120,000 units, compared with around 700 sellers for 100s of thousands of units.




Yep, i saw that. I truly hope it was an overreaction. I didnt buy much just in case, its just with no announcements i could find at the time and some spare dollars, i thought why not have a go. Looking at that chart from GG, there seems to be $20 rebounds in the downtrend, so heres hoping.


----------



## Aussiest

Yeah, i'm hoping too Family Guy. Believe me, i do not want to see another BNB situation here...

What does Macquarie Bank primarily do anyway? 

This was taken from the Commsec website:



> Macquarie Group is Australias leading listed investment bank. It has a diversified international operational base with significant activities in corporate finance, treasury and commodities, equities markets, funds management and property. Base and performance fees from listed specialist funds and unlisted funds including a cash management trust represent an important source of group income.




I wish they'd speak in plain english.

What are 'significant activities'?

Where is the property? And, what type is it?

In which countries, and to what proportion in each, does it operate it's 'international operational base'?

Questions, questions.


----------



## nomore4s

Family_Guy said:


> Yep, i saw that. I truly hope it was an overreaction. I didnt buy much just in case, its just with no announcements i could find at the time and some spare dollars, i thought why not have a go. Looking at that chart from GG, there seems to be $20 rebounds in the downtrend, so heres hoping.




With the weak close on massive volume I don't think we'll see any sort of rebound tomorrow.

What we might see tomorrow though is a drive down to say $38-$39 or lower (capitulation) on high volume again but would want to see the close off the lows, otherwise it could get a bit ugly.

This is purely speculation and I have no money on the table with MQG. And a strong night in the US could make all that null & void.

Good luck to holders


----------



## deadset

Just when I thought it couldn't go below $45.

Those US investment banks were advising to get out of commodities (at their bottom) and switch to financials, so what happened, commodities rose 10% since then and financials have gone down 10%.  Still, its worth noting that commodities can drop quickly again with USD changes, oil price changes, metal price changes.  

Oh well, Fannie and Freddy have held and BNB is holding above $2.50.

These price levels now for MQG would indicate that the market thinks the dividend will drop and it is more exposed than say a CBA.

That chart does look scary right now.  I'm going to have to think for awhile before I decide to sell or not.


----------



## Aussiest

Yeah, i'm holding off for a while too, or perhaps for ever.

Funny you should mention that about commodities, and thanks, because i was eyeing WPL today and i thought, "hang on, if oil goes down, there goes WPL". So, i'm holding off there too. And anyway, it only looks as though the price of oil has risen due to percieved supply disruption off the Mexico Gulf, when the cyclone goes through.

What happens when the cyclone's over? Does that mean oil goes down and commodities-related stocks will suffer too?

These are interesting times and i am going to try to be safe :dunno: MQG could be good for a day trade though, depending on future price action.


----------



## Julia

deadset said:


> That chart does look scary right now.  I'm going to have to think for awhile before I decide to sell or not.



Maybe ask yourself if you looked at this chart now, would you buy MQG?
It has halved in value since October last year.


----------



## Aussiest

deadset said:


> Oh well, Fannie and Freddy have held and BNB is holding above $2.50.
> (




I don't mean to be alarmist, but BNB did have a few legs down before it reached 2.50. Food for thought..


----------



## deadset

Here's a good summary of what happened yesterday :

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24253931-14334,00.html


Hi Julia, yes I panic buyed when I saw the price drop thinking I had spotted a bargain, then I got the news after the event as to why it dropped so I was nervous until I found out.  Turns out the news isn't that scary, but something to keep an eye on.  As we know, sometimes by the time we find out the news, the price has changed again, but its obviously safer to find out why there was a change before buying.

Aussiest, I'll check the oil thread.


----------



## Aussiest

Deadset,

I'm not sure whether there's anything recent in the oil thread, i just supposed due to the news about the cyclone. I guess the MQG has taught me to be extra cautious .

I understand what you mean about the news. On Mon and Tues, i could have sworn somebody knew something that i didn't know, due to the big sell-down, so they either had inside information, or were keeping their eye on the Macquarie satellite funds or businessess (or whatever they're called). :dunno:


----------



## mr_delta

Guys,

I have a job interview at Macquarie Bank next week. Should I take the job if I get through???!!!!

Looks like I am goingto get this job as I have the uncanny habit of picking up falling knives (my portfolio would be a testament of my above statement)....Will let you all know if I make it in the interview or not !!!!


----------



## deadset

Apparently they only employ the best employees, just ask them.
Working for the number 1 investment bank in Australia, that's got to be good.


----------



## sk8er

mr_delta said:


> Guys,
> 
> I have a job interview at Macquarie Bank next week. Should I take the job if I get through???!!!!
> 
> Looks like I am goingto get this job as I have the uncanny habit of picking up falling knives (my portfolio would be a testament of my above statement)....Will let you all know if I make it in the interview or not !!!!




Take the job if you get it. Macquarie bank is the "millionaires factory" after all, or is that the "thousandaire factory".


----------



## Aussiest

I can't help myself: take the job and come and tell us all the inside info :. No, seriously, good luck with the job. It will look great on your resume


----------



## ROE

mr_delta said:


> Guys,
> 
> I have a job interview at Macquarie Bank next week. Should I take the job if I get through???!!!!
> 
> Looks like I am goingto get this job as I have the uncanny habit of picking up falling knives (my portfolio would be a testament of my above statement)....Will let you all know if I make it in the interview or not !!!!




Are you ready to work 50 hour plus week  ..if yes then go for it may come out a millionaire ..may comes out disappointed and disgruntle but if the model comes crashing down may come out without a job


----------



## The Mint Man

I can't believe that no one has posted in this thread today.... the thing jumped 15% today!!! hello
Does anyone know what is behind this? doesn't seem to be any major ann's. Maybe just people willing to hold long recognising value when they see it?

Cheers


----------



## oldblue

I think more likely caught up in today's banking relief rally - fallout from the F&F move in the US.


----------



## The Mint Man

oldblue said:


> I think more likely caught up in today's banking relief rally - fallout from the F&F move in the US.



A fallout from US banks usually doesn't mean a huge rally in bank stocks over here, especially MQG
Thats my observation anyway

Cheers

Edit: maybe you meant 'bailout'?


----------



## white_goodman

The Mint Man said:


> I can't believe that no one has posted in this thread today.... the thing jumped 15% today!!! hello
> Does anyone know what is behind this? doesn't seem to be any major ann's. Maybe just people willing to hold long recognising value when they see it?
> 
> Cheers




this is why i picked them for the september competition...theres plenty of upside in MQG i reckon....

ill post a chart soon but my internet signal that im 'borrowing' off my neighbour is quite slow atm and my charts are slow to update


----------



## oldblue

The Mint Man said:


> A fallout from US banks usually doesn't mean a huge rally in bank stocks over here, especially MQG
> Thats my observation anyway
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Edit: maybe you meant 'bailout'?




Agree it shouldn't mean a rally here, but I think it did nevertheless.

A bad choice of the word "fallout" on my part. Meant to say " reaction to ".


----------



## nick2fish

The Mint Man said:


> I can't believe that no one has posted in this thread today.... the thing jumped 15% today!!! hello
> Does anyone know what is behind this? doesn't seem to be any major ann's. Maybe just people willing to hold long recognising value when they see it?
> 
> Cheers




Yippee !!!!!!!!! Only 34.62% of gains to go and I'm in the green on this one

The MQG Morgan Stanley Presentation in London was very timely in view of the positive financial news coming from the US.

Mac could double its profit forecast , then deliver and still see share price fall in this market. 

It can't seem to de-couple from its VERY dismal distant cousins IMO


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

nick2fish said:


> Yippee !!!!!!!!! Only 34.62% of gains to go and I'm in the green on this one
> 
> The MQG Morgan Stanley Presentation in London was very timely in view of the positive financial news coming from the US.
> 
> Mac could double its profit forecast , then deliver and still see share price fall in this market.
> 
> It can't seem to de-couple from its VERY dismal distant cousins IMO




I'm sorry to rain on your party.

Its built on debt.

It pays its managers too much.

The other funds hate it due to its past success and will short it at a moments notice. 

It has a way to fall yet I'm afraid.

gg


----------



## Family_Guy

I agree with GG
But it's a perfect Dtrader type of stock, thing moves all over the place.
I get on and hopefully out in 2/3 days.
The thing spikes and falls, but it's averaging is moving south and will keep doing so for a longtime. great if you can make a few bucks out of in a short time, but don't go long or anything.


----------



## ChomChom

Interesting the article about MQG in the Australian this morning
Macquarie in the spotlight amid $5bn refinancing fears
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24357625-20501,00.html

Even more interesting, their answer:


> Response to The Australian article
> SYDNEY, 17 September 2008 – A report in today’s Australian newspaper which claimed that Macquarie Group needs to refinance $A45 billion of debt and that $A5 billion requiring refinancing by March 2009 “could prove difficult to get away” is false and inconsistent with information provided to the market by the Group.
> 
> Since 31 March 2008, the Group has raised term funding of $A6.4 billion from a variety of sources. In addition, from 31 March 2008 to 31 July 2008, Macquarie Bank Limited increased deposits by $A3.8 billion to $A17 billion. The Group also has an undrawn $A3.8 billion senior credit facility.
> Macquarie remains well-funded and well-capitalised with liquid assets of more than $A20 billion as at 30 June 2008, which is twice the level of a year ago.
> 
> The author did not provide the Group with an opportunity to respond to these claims.


----------



## deadset

So someone's been feeding The Australian journalist porkies.
Wouldn't it be nice if we could get her source and have a look at the real balance sheet to see what's really true.  

MQG's been going up and down like a yo yo already in 10 minutes.
Buy, Buy, Buy, Sell, Sell, Sell, no wait, Buy, Buy, Buy


----------



## ROE

Where there is smoke there could be a fire, someone has some information some where, it may not be 100% accurate but if your model

build on cheap debt and leverage than the chance of having a bit of fire isn't that far from the truth.
a bit of caution doesnt hurt


----------



## Aussiest

I said to myself i would buy in at $34.00, but looking at it today, i will not touch this stock. Ever again, i don't think.

This might make their over-paid executives wake up.


----------



## Macquack

Aussiest said:


> I said to myself i would buy in at $34.00, but looking at it today, i will not touch this stock. Ever again, i don't think.
> 
> This might make their *over-paid executives wake up*.




Well the Big Kahuna (Alan Moss) is an early riser. He woke up back in May and swifty exited. Mind you, not before fleecing the company of another $100 million in the process.

Moss was last seen perusing waterfront property on island of Majorca.


----------



## ROE

Macquack said:


> Well the Big Kahuna (Alan Moss) is an early riser. He woke up back in May and swifty exited. Mind you, not before fleecing the company of another $100 million in the process.
> 
> Moss was last seen perusing waterfront property on island of Majorca.




Go back to the history of this post and most people smell fishy, he know what's coming and decided to retire when you are on top.

He famously reject claim about MQG model and ask investor when do people stop watching foxtel or drive through the toll road.. he implies that because they control these infrastructure and people will for go everything else before they turn off their foxtel etc..

I think he has his answer now  .. When cheap debt are over and your funds are not making money, you pay more interest than revenue you generate you no longer in control and the longer you hold those inflated fund the more money you lose and people watching TV or not is irrelevant


----------



## michael_selway

ROE said:


> Go back to the history of this post and most people smell fishy, he know what's coming and decided to retire when you are on top.
> 
> He famously reject claim about MQG model and ask investor when do people stop watching foxtel or drive through the toll road.. he implies that because they control these infrastructure and people will for go everything else before they turn off their foxtel etc..
> 
> I think he has his answer now  .. When cheap debt are over and your funds are not making money, you pay more interest than revenue you generate you no longer in control and the longer you hold those inflated fund the more money you lose and people watching TV or not is irrelevant




Hehe yep Alan Moss is a smart man to leave at the right time 

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
Curr 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 653.5 557.9 642.2 701.9 
DPS 345.0 345.0 345.0 381.6 *

Thx

MS



> Date: 17/9/2008
> Author: Adele Ferguson
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 37
> Australian-listed investment banking and infrastructure fund management firmMacquarie Group faces some problems related to its debt. It will need torefinance $A45bn by March 2009, and in September 2008 about 10% of this isproving to be difficult. The company's subordinated debt has risen to 500basis points and its senior debt to 320. While it is still performing betterthan rival Babcock & Brown, both are under increasing pressure to offloadassets, which Macquarie has not done for six months. On 16 September its stockclosed 7% lower at $A36.80 while Babcock was down a massive 49% to $A0.80










http://www.hotcopper.com.au/images/stockpricecharts/600_420/MQG.jpg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

MQG is in a similar position at this time as AFG and BNB were earlier this year.

It has been built on a model of internal debt and fees supporting/dependent on external debt  , high rewards for ordinary guys and girls in the mosh,  and an inability to smooze the doubters of this model.

It has had a good Cash Management Trust which I have maintained for one (the major) of my entities, my accountant says it is second to none for chasing the snail trail of divvies come tax time.

Today I have closed out all my holdings vaguely related to MQG. , CMT, warrants etc. 

MQG is stuffed, it is a dead parrot.

It is so highly geared that its demise will be a chartists dream, down a lot , up a bit etc etc.

I enclose a chart which is an amateur's attempt at EW analysis , to the end of Sept it will sit at $17.50.

Will I ever say MQG is a buy.

Yagottabijohkin

gg

ps I have charts which I am unable to post getting MQG back to $8 and $4.


----------



## Warren Buffet II

MQG is stuffed and is getting more and more nervous by the time.

It is funny that this week they started confronting journalist for writing about their financial situation and then you see some other journos talking up the company big time (Are they getting any fees from MQG BTW?).

I wouldn't put any money on them anytime soon.

WBII


----------



## Warren Buffet II

With current market turnmoil and bad news circulating MQG I believe it will hit something below $30 today? 

WBII


----------



## michael_selway

Warren Buffet II said:


> With current market turnmoil and bad news circulating MQG I believe it will hit something below $30 today?
> 
> WBII




Hm probably but woudl below $10 be a possibility anytime soon you think?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
Curr 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 653.5 557.9 642.2 701.9 
DPS 345.0 345.0 345.0 381.6 


thx

MS


----------



## freddy2

Warren Buffet II said:


> It is funny that this week they started confronting journalist for writing about their financial situation and then you see some other journos talking up the company big time (*Are they getting any fees from MQG BTW?*).




This is exactly what I have been thinking reading some of the recent articles  given their ridiculously optimistic tone. However I doubt it as simple as this, probably some other form of quid pro quo is involved such as access to management.


----------



## ROE

Nasty dropped can only get worse when stock are this low, people start pulling out their deposit and cut ties with MQG


----------



## deadset

am I allowed to swear, I own some of this stock, definitely below $30 today, its gotten nasty already.  Should I sell now or hold ?  I should have just had a mid-life crisis and bought a sports car or something.

I remember on Friday thinking, "hmmm, I could sell now, how bad could it be next week ? hmmm, maybe the sky isn't falling after all, as if the financial system is going to melt down, they fixed it last weekend didn't they"  

dit dow, wrong!

I think I better get a job and start calling myself a long term trader.


----------



## Sunder

I felt sorry for myself. Last week when it was over $40, I thought I'd short it, but then thought - well it's already been punished, there can't be much more to go... ANd left it alone.

Now I feel sorry for you... Hope your exposure isn't too big.

Lost opportunities are nothing like actual losses. :grenade:


----------



## awg

I hate writing this post

most of my Super Pension is via Maquarie and much of that is held in their CMT

I dont think I am able to get the monies into something more secure in the timeframe that I need to, due to the fact that I cant use Term deposits within a Wrap account.

There would be many individuals in my position.

what, in the opiniomn of other ASF posters, would be the timeframe and likelyhood of MQG either placing restrictions on withdrawls, or in a worst case scenario, becoming insolvent, with regard to regular pension payments, in particular.

I do have a seperate SMSF, but even it settles thru MQG CMT!

at least I can use other alternatives there, but the prospect outlined above is concerning me, nothwithstanding that if MQG goes insolvent, it would represent a financial doomsday scenario in Oz.

i have been concerned about this for a while, but events have moved too quickly for me


----------



## Sunder

You want an opinion, and I'll make it clear that it's an opinion only, and not to take it as advice.

I don't think Macquarie is going under. As recently as yesterday, they made it clear they are holding more than enough cash to cover any debt covenants that come up before March 2009.

If it isn't all over bar the screaming by then, the financial world is b0rked anyway, and you'd be in good company.


----------



## ROE

I dont think MQG going under either, it just their model is a bit risky
also as panic start to take shape.

people first reaction is to take their deposit out and put into a bigger bank like CBA and that reduce their access to cheap capital and so they becomes even risker with more expensive capital to pay.


----------



## The Mint Man

I echo ROE and sunder's comments, I don't think it is going under... It could even be a good opportunity to get in, at least short term anyway

I bought a heap around November last year just before things went pear shaped..... With the benefit of hindsight I would have sold out many times and bought back many times to catch the upside, would have made a packet but thats not really my style and could have been worse off than what I am now! who knows

The thing that makes me feel bad is that the money that I put into MQG was an inheritance from my grandmother, she never had alot and I feel like I've wasted what little she had to give.
Obviously there are thoughts of that renovation that I could have done to my house or simply paid that amount off the mortgage instead but hey, **** happens. Some might say thats a bad attitude but it's better than necking myself.

The one thing I've got going for me is that I'm 25, not 50 and planing for retirement. I know how I feel when I take a big loss so I can only imagine what it would feel like if I was much older.

I will be holding for the moment, no point in selling now as I suspect there will be a bounce soon, re consider my options then.

Cheers


----------



## Bolivia

Not sure why anyone would take their money out of Macquaries CMT because they fear for the future of MQG. 

MQG has a banking license which means, as a deposit taker, deposits are guaranteed by the RBA. That is why thay have all the Tier 1 ratios etc and are regulated by APRA.

As for MQG I also don't think they will suffer the same fate as their OS counterparts. MQG has a very diverse earnings stream, much more than what Lehman Bros/Bears/Morgan Stanley etc. That is not to say the investment banking aspect hasn't been dealt a severe body blow. What it will mean is a reversion back to less risky more traditional wealth management services.

Lets face it, after all is said and done with this crisis, those that are left standing are certainly going to gain a massive amount of market share. And yes there will still be plenty of people and institutions with heaps of money.

Listening to fear mongering about people withdrawing funds without understanding the facts helps nobody.

Would I be buying MQG here? Well for the first time in the banks listed history, they are trading under their book value. Goldman Sachs last night traded at about 1.15 times it's book, while Morgan Stanley (which has alot more liquidity issues than MQG) traded at about .75 times Book value. So on a fundemental basis the bank is definately looking cheap. Can it go lower? Of course, but we will never know what the bottom is until after the fact, so I guess you just have to pick a target price and trade it from there. Technically I can see MQG getting to around $20 which where its lows were in 2002.

Good luck to all.


----------



## Warren Buffet II

ROE said:


> I dont think MQG going under either, it just their model is a bit risky
> also as panic start to take shape.
> 
> people first reaction is to take their deposit out and put into a bigger bank like CBA and that reduce their access to cheap capital and so they becomes even risker with more expensive capital to pay.




Well, saying that they have enough money to cover some of their debts means nothing in the current market. I read an article saying that I think Morgan Stanley has 180 Billions in cash and could pay most of its debts and they are strageling big time as they borrowing costs are up to the point they have to pay 10% extra each time for any money. 

So they word out there is no matter what the CEO of any of those companies said, it is what they market say. No bank want to fund any other bank, and MQG will or have found that already and will crash its model pretty soon.

WBII


----------



## awg

Hi to all and thanks for the replies.

i did not wish to be overly alarmist.

i think the chance of MQG going under is extremely low.

my concern is based around the fact that virtually all of my super that i rely upon for 50% of my income, is settled thru MQG CMT.

i have always believed it is not a good idea to be reliant upon one institution,
and previously have always diversified, in that respect.

I have been in the process of that for a good while now, but am pinned by the CMT issue. The process of altering super pensions is drawn out and tedious, requiring much paperwork, and delay

The issue has only really come to the fore in the last 2 days.

I had found MQG to be one of the most difficult stocks to predict price movement, of any in my portfolio ( until I sold out recently).

levels of gearing and indebtedness, as per their financial statements, are not easily interpreted, and in my opinion, those interpretations could easily prove to be very wrong.

BNB is an example, although i would say, I at least was able to deduce it was one to stay away from...but i do know of one fellow who has shown himself to be very astute and made many good calls, who got caught on it.

If international liquidity becomes frozen, the MQG methodology would be unsustainable in the longer term?


----------



## Warren Buffet II

Bolivia said:


> Morgan Stanley (which has alot more liquidity issues than MQG)




Sounds very funny, liquidity issues with 180 Billions available right now. No matter how much you have if you can borroww you are broke.

MQG has what 20B or 2B?

WBII


----------



## xl852

same as most of u guys, 
really learnt a grand lesson this week.........
I bought it at 41, sold it at 28,  lost 34k
I wish I can quit shares ,   
anybody can tell me what should I do atm ? 
wait till the market getting peaceful  ??


----------



## justjohn

ROE .....hope your not in MQG & SUN.I'm in MQG and the shafting from this is painful enough, but to cope it from both ends


----------



## white_goodman

xl852 said:


> same as most of u guys,
> really learnt a grand lesson this week.........
> I bought it at 41, sold it at 28,  lost 34k
> I wish I can quit shares ,
> anybody can tell me what should I do atm ?
> wait till the market getting peaceful  ??




maby a short....

geez dude 34k. Dont view it as a failure jsut as a learning experience otherwise you will scar yourself from ever entering the market again


----------



## Awesomandy

xl852 said:


> anybody can tell me what should I do atm ?
> wait till the market getting peaceful  ??




Refine your strategies, keep looking for opportunities, and stick to your stop losses. Don't worry too much about losing, instead, learn from it, and eventually, you'll be able to make it back.


----------



## justjohn

xl852 said:


> same as most of u guys,
> really learnt a grand lesson this week.........
> I bought it at 41, sold it at 28,  lost 34k
> I wish I can quit shares ,
> anybody can tell me what should I do atm ?
> wait till the market getting peaceful  ??




Like your honesty X1852 I'm down a few k (15 in fact ) on MQG but it's amazing all the good advise which is floating around after the fact


----------



## The Mint Man

justjohn said:


> Like your honesty X1852 I'm down a few k (15 in fact ) on MQG but it's amazing all the good advise which is floating around after the fact




How true, cant wait until their stocks tank and then I can go in and say.... 
'Knew it, but I forgot to tell you guys, sorry'

Cheers


----------



## justjohn

MINTY HOW ABOUT WE GO AND PUT THE BOOT INTO THEM POOR &^%$%$# ON THE BNB THREAD AT LEAST OUR STOCK IS ABOVE A $1:fu:AND THERE DOWN 21% TODAY (POOR &$%$#@)


----------



## Aussiest

I honestly really feel for anyone watching these shares at the moment.  

It's got to be a good buy at $26.00, surely?

(i don't want to give out irresponsible advice, but as Warren Buffet said, buy while there's blood in the streets, and there's blood in the streets with this one )

Btw, i'm down more than both of you on MQG. Gotta love the arrogance of not setting a stop-loss.


----------



## justjohn

Geez Aussiest I've lost much blood I must be boardering on being anemic anyway if MQG goes down the shytter there will be more than blood in the streets


----------



## ROE

justjohn said:


> ROE .....hope your not in MQG & SUN.I'm in MQG and the shafting from this is painful enough, but to cope it from both ends




I'm in SUN but stay clear of MQG ... my SUN lost is not that bad ... $10 average share price and I collect $1.10 in dividend for each share already so
now $9 of capital left at the current trading price .. I have no Fear 

and I dont like selling at a lost  I did try to pick up more SUN at $7.50 today but no luck
share recover from 15% down to 6% ...


----------



## Aussiest

justjohn said:


> Geez Aussiest I've lost much blood I must be boardering on being anemic anyway if MQG goes down the shytter there will be more than blood in the streets




Oh, don't say that. I hope everything turns out the best for you and anybody else holding MQG. Can't say i'd be sorry to see it go down the ****ter though, feel like i need revenge for the blood that i've lost too. Lol .


----------



## The Mint Man

ROE said:


> I dont like selling at a lost  I did try to pick up more SUN at $7.50 today but no luck
> share recover from 15% down to 6% ...



That makes two of us, has got me in alot of trouble I must say, slowly learning to kurb this line of thought.

Cheers


----------



## ROE

xl852 said:


> same as most of u guys,
> really learnt a grand lesson this week.........
> I bought it at 41, sold it at 28,  lost 34k
> I wish I can quit shares ,
> anybody can tell me what should I do atm ?
> wait till the market getting peaceful  ??




Sorry to hear about your lost but why sell out at $28?
if you already left it fall that far?

Losing money is never easy but over time other gains will make up


----------



## ROE

The Mint Man said:


> That makes two of us, has got me in alot of trouble I must say, slowly learning to kurb this line of thought.
> 
> Cheers




hahaha I tend to get into stock too soon I have to learn to be patient ..
If I was to wait till today I would buy a lot of sun at average $8 or less a share 
but such is the wild side of the market.


----------



## xl852

ROE said:


> Sorry to hear about your lost but why sell out at $28?
> if you already left it fall that far?
> 
> Losing money is never easy but over time other gains will make up




tru tru tru,  I guess it will bounce up soon, but just dunno where it comes back from... $10, $20 or $26, any idea here?


----------



## Aussiest

ROE said:


> over time other gains will make up




How do you know that?

................................................................................................


----------



## ROE

Aussiest said:


> How do you know that?
> 
> ................................................................................................




because you don't just hold one stock you hold several there will one one or two that out perform the market well at least for me a few out perform the market.


----------



## ROE

xl852 said:


> tru tru tru,  I guess it will bounce up soon, but just dunno where it comes back from... $10, $20 or $26, any idea here?




Now MQG got my attention at this price ... but it wasn't when it was 80, 60 or 40 time to dig out the old calculator tonight and see if thing stack up. let play the worse case scenario ..out come Kelly Optimization model


----------



## Aussiest

The thing is, MQG may be a good buy if it's dividend continues like it has, and if you can be almost 100% certain that it won't go under.


----------



## The Muffin Man

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ies-unseen-enemies-JKE2K?OpenDocument&src=sph

"The bank has issued paper of $25 billion. About $6 billion of that are equity linked notes and other paper with terms of about two years. That leaves about $19 billion in wholesale short term funding that will have to be rolled over in the next 12 months. 

Those concerned that Macquarie won't be able to access wholesale markets to replace this funding should find comfort in the holdings of cash and liquids of $20.8 billion. It is possible Macquarie could repay its short term funding in cash today."

Sounds like it doesn't have any liquidity problems to me. With all of the talk on here of Macquarie going under, am I missing something? Macquarie Bank takes deposits too doesn't it? Isn't that a major difference between this institution and others that have failed overseas? Looks to me like people just panicking. I want to know everyone elses views, like why they think it will go under, because at the moment it looks like a bargain to me and I'm seriously considering buying soon. Not large amounts, an amount I'm prepared to lose most of if need be.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Bolivia said:


> Not sure why anyone would take their money out of Macquaries CMT because they fear for the future of MQG.
> 
> MQG has a banking license which means, as a deposit taker, deposits are guaranteed by the RBA. That is why thay have all the Tier 1 ratios etc and are regulated by APRA.
> 
> As for MQG I also don't think they will suffer the same fate as their OS counterparts. MQG has a very diverse earnings stream, much more than what Lehman Bros/Bears/Morgan Stanley etc. That is not to say the investment banking aspect hasn't been dealt a severe body blow. What it will mean is a reversion back to less risky more traditional wealth management services.
> 
> Lets face it, after all is said and done with this crisis, those that are left standing are certainly going to gain a massive amount of market share. And yes there will still be plenty of people and institutions with heaps of money.
> 
> Listening to fear mongering about people withdrawing funds without understanding the facts helps nobody.
> 
> Would I be buying MQG here? Well for the first time in the banks listed history, they are trading under their book value. Goldman Sachs last night traded at about 1.15 times it's book, while Morgan Stanley (which has alot more liquidity issues than MQG) traded at about .75 times Book value. So on a fundemental basis the bank is definately looking cheap. Can it go lower? Of course, but we will never know what the bottom is until after the fact, so I guess you just have to pick a target price and trade it from there. Technically I can see MQG getting to around $20 which where its lows were in 2002.
> 
> Good luck to all.




Facts are important, and important facts need to be correct.

Macquarie CMT Cash Management Trust is not guaranteed by APRA or anyone else. It is an investment taken after reading the prospectus. 

Reading the small print can get one into trouble but not reading the large, well, you are asking to be taken out.

The following is from Page 2 of the Macquarie CMT. It is a warning and is in fact the first words in the prospectus, which goes for some 56 pages. 

So if MQG goes bust, then you lose your "deposits" in Macquarie CMT.



"Investments in the Macquarie Cash Management Trust (“Macquarie CMT” or “Trust”) are offered by Macquarie Investment Management Limited ABN 66
002 867 003 (“Macquarie”/“MIML”/“we”/“us”/“our”). *Investments in the Trust are not deposits with or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Limited ABN
46 008 583 542 (the bank) or of any Macquarie Bank Group company and are subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment and loss
of income or principal invested.* None of Macquarie Bank Limited, MIML or any other member company of the Macquarie Bank Group guarantees the
performance of the Trust or the repayment of capital from the Trust or any particular rate of return.
The preparation date of the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), which is issue number 5 of the series, is 18 April 2007. "



I will not comment on your other thoughts here except to say that incorrect reassurance is dangerous, the most that can happen to punters who switch out of this CMT is some investment of time and energy, and a deposit with a safer bet in these dangerous times, or some better place to rest their safe money, e.g under their bed..

gg


----------



## Seneca60BC

I dont know what all the drama is - MQG exited the US Mortage market back in 2007 and only have some exposure in Canada.  Oh well, i guss one should be greedy when others are fearful.

Cheers


----------



## tigerboi

justjohn said:


> MINTY HOW ABOUT WE GO AND PUT THE BOOT INTO THEM POOR &^%$%$# ON THE BNB THREAD AT LEAST OUR STOCK IS ABOVE A $1:fu:AND THERE DOWN 21% TODAY (POOR &$%$#@)




classic jj!id join ya but i getz meself into drama over there!with mqg id wait much longer to see it play out as surely it will head lower,it has cash i believe so it wont go over but get a giant hair cut...then get in,but me i stay away from the banks,cnp/bnb...they tell too many porkies to the shareholders for my liking...tb


----------



## Kuri

ROE said:


> Sorry to hear about your lost but why sell out at $28?
> if you already left it fall that far?
> 
> Losing money is never easy but over time other gains will make up




I found this an interesting thought ROE. I am one of the crazy people who bought in at 70 and was rubbing my hands at high 80's not long after. Due to the mixed messages I have held on and am obviously looking at a loss of about $3k at todays price. Looking at your reply you are different than every one else thinking at this loss it is better to hold and wait for a rebound. Do you think it will make it back to the mid 40's?

Interested to hear your thoughts.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Seneca60BC said:


> I dont know what all the drama is - MQG exited the US Mortage market back in 2007 and only have some exposure in Canada.  Oh well, i guss one should be greedy when others are fearful.
> 
> Cheers




Interesting point.

Can you expand?

Buy in fear  etc etc 

MQG are on the nose, have been and may be in the future. 

Yours is a light shining amongst a veritable rain of s**t on this shorters dream.

gg


----------



## The Mint Man

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Interesting point.
> 
> Can you expand?
> 
> Buy in fear  etc etc
> 
> MQG are on the nose, have been and may be in the future.
> 
> Yours is a light shining amongst a veritable rain of s**t on this shorters dream.
> 
> gg




Is it possible a few of those shorters said 'thats enough' today? I noticed in the last hour or so it came from nowhere on comsecs top buys list to be at the top by days end.

Cheers


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

The Mint Man said:


> Is it possible a few of those shorters said 'thats enough' today? I noticed in the last hour or so it came from nowhere on comsecs top buys list to be at the top by days end.
> 
> Cheers






Garpal Gumnut said:


> MQG is in a similar position at this time as AFG and BNB were earlier this year.
> 
> It has been built on a model of internal debt and fees supporting/dependent on external debt  , high rewards for ordinary guys and girls in the mosh,  and an inability to smooze the doubters of this model.
> 
> It has had a good Cash Management Trust which I have maintained for one (the major) of my entities, my accountant says it is second to none for chasing the snail trail of divvies come tax time.
> 
> Today I have closed out all my holdings vaguely related to MQG. , CMT, warrants etc.
> 
> MQG is stuffed, it is a dead parrot.
> 
> It is so highly geared that its demise will be a chartists dream, down a lot , up a bit etc etc.
> 
> I enclose a chart which is an amateur's attempt at EW analysis , to the end of Sept it will sit at $17.50.
> 
> Will I ever say MQG is a buy.
> 
> Yagottabijohkin
> 
> gg
> 
> ps I have charts which I am unable to post getting MQG back to $8 and $4.




Could be the case The Mint Man but beware of higher highs and lows in a long term downtrend.

It would be interesting to count the number of toilet rolls used this week in Macquarie headquarters compared to 12 mo ago.

gg


----------



## Julia

justjohn said:


> Like your honesty X1852 I'm down a few k (15 in fact ) on MQG but it's amazing all the good advise which is floating around after the fact



Justjohn, if you haven't noticed all the multiple notes of caution and warning about MQG for more than two years now, you just haven't been looking.


----------



## white_goodman

what happens if MQG does a lehmans? what company in Australia could afford to buy them out, would the RBA fix the situation?


----------



## Warren Buffet II

"While we believe the hedge fund 'short Macquarie' arguments do not bear closer scrutiny, the direction of Macquarie's price is telling us *Macquarie is broken*," JPMorgan analysts Brian Johnson, Scott Manning and David Disney-Willis wrote in a note to clients.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24364740-462,00.html


WBII


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

A chart is better than a thousand words.

MQB is heading for uncharted waters.

It looks sad.

gg


sorry too few characters  ignore following fe fi fo fum i smell the blood of an english mun


----------



## Kuri

Warren Buffet II said:


> "While we believe the hedge fund 'short Macquarie' arguments do not bear closer scrutiny, the direction of Macquarie's price is telling us *Macquarie is broken*," JPMorgan analysts Brian Johnson, Scott Manning and David Disney-Willis wrote in a note to clients.
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24364740-462,00.html
> 
> 
> WBII





Once again WBII the article is speaking in double dutch as it also states, 'JPMorgan has an "overweight" rating on Macquarie and has a share price target of $71.58 at June 2009'...S&P yesterday reaffirmed Macquarie's long and short term credit ratings.

"The financial and business fundamentals of the Macquarie Group are unlikely to be materially affected by the current dislocation in financial markets." 


This is what makes it hard for the individual investor to make sense whether to sell out and take the loss or to dollar cost down and hold for two years. 

Decisions, decisions...


----------



## nick2fish

"Shares in Macquarie Group Ltd plunged more than 23 per cent to a near five and a half year low amid ongoing concerns that the Australia's biggest investment bank could have trouble refinancing debt.

The fall comes despite ratings agency Moody's Investors Service affirming the group's its stable outlook and credit ratings."

Rumor and inuendo costing Macbank investors sh*tloads

The saying... where there is smoke there is fire should be changed too

Where there is smoke there is a hedge fund  

Shame on all you guys who have stayed quite all these months apart from a couple  and come in now with I told you so.

Even more unbelievable is that you don't even own any shares in the company
Like I would listen to an ex owner who pulled out when the downturn happened or later and posted thier opinion on this blog for all to see 

If you can't say anything nice , better to not say anything IMO
Your opinion can't help anyone now , MQG is gone

12 months ago brokers were overweight on this stock

Nothing has been proven yet and you can probably speculate better on the doom and gloom thread and spare threads such as MQG and BNB from your I told you so's.

Also with MAC and BNB gone the hedge funds will turn there gaze elsewhere ...ah FMG

IMO


----------



## skyQuake

I'll stick my neck out and defend MQG. It's really not that screwed...

18mil volume and that massive gap there... looks like capitulation to me. Sellers couldn't even be shaken off in the arvo rally.


Imo its just being sold off by funds cause its an IB. However macq has no subprime exposure, most of its profits come from fund management, traditional IB, and advisory services. Its cheap credit funding assets model spins off those assets into external funds. So while it may not be selling off repackaged assets anymore, it still has its retail banking division to fall back upon. 

People have been putting it in the same category as Lehmans, JPMorgan, Sterns, UBS, GS, ML etc... (and prob babcock too). This misconception will eventually be corrected and craploads of short covering to occur.


----------



## nomore4s

Skyquake alot of that vol is due to the options expiry or whatever today, not a true indication of the vol. 

The weak close doesn't bode well considering all the other banks closed on the highs.

My bet is maybe a small bounce (to around $34-$36) to come soon and then down past these lows.


----------



## Pager

Time will tell with MQG but just look at the volume going through,  this isnt just hedge funds shorting.

The same sort of selling occured in other companys like CNP, BNB, AFG just to mention a few, each of which was saying positive things before the real truth emerged, maybe MQG will survive and this is an over reaction but i find it hard to believe they dont have any problems/exposure to the meltdown that has occured.


----------



## nomore4s

Pager said:


> i find it hard to believe they dont have any problems/exposure to the meltdown that has occured.




So do I.

I'm sure they have some exposure to the problems, just depends on how much and how well they can contain it.


----------



## Warren Buffet II

I said before that Morgan Stanley had 180 billions in liquidity but I didn't mention the source, here it is:

"After the strong earnings and $179 billion in liquidity we announced yesterday - which virtually every equity analyst highlighted in their notes this morning - there is no rational basis for the movements in our stock or *credit default spreads*," Mack wrote.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/17/new...isis.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008091719

So my point is and this goes against all those thinking that because MQG has some money available and because is a bank and because APRA and all that crap, the reality is what the market believes.

I am 100% sure that the market at this point in time believes either *MQG is broken or they are hiding something*, as simple as that. Is that true or false, I can't tell you and none here can, just give them a few more months and we will know the true once the credit spreads bites.


WBII


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

nick2fish said:


> "Shares in Macquarie Group Ltd plunged more than 23 per cent to a near five and a half year low amid ongoing concerns that the Australia's biggest investment bank could have trouble refinancing debt.
> 
> The fall comes despite ratings agency Moody's Investors Service affirming the group's its stable outlook and credit ratings."
> 
> Rumor and inuendo costing Macbank investors sh*tloads
> 
> The saying... where there is smoke there is fire should be changed too
> 
> Where there is smoke there is a hedge fund
> 
> Shame on all you guys who have stayed quite all these months apart from a couple  and come in now with I told you so.
> 
> Even more unbelievable is that you don't even own any shares in the company
> Like I would listen to an ex owner who pulled out when the downturn happened or later and posted thier opinion on this blog for all to see
> 
> If you can't say anything nice , better to not say anything IMO
> Your opinion can't help anyone now , MQG is gone
> 
> 12 months ago brokers were overweight on this stock
> 
> Nothing has been proven yet and you can probably speculate better on the doom and gloom thread and spare threads such as MQG and BNB from your I told you so's.
> 
> Also with MAC and BNB gone the hedge funds will turn there gaze elsewhere ...ah FMG
> 
> IMO




nick mate,

go over the MBL MQG AFG and BNB posts. 

read them all

you were warned

its not a conspiracy.

its a lousy business model.

we warned you because jokers like you pushed the price of these stocks up and have now buggered the market.

if you don't like the criticism, tough.

read every post mate, its all there.

gg


----------



## nick2fish

Garpal Gumnut said:


> nick mate,
> 
> go over the MBL MQG AFG and BNB posts.
> 
> read them all
> 
> you were warned
> 
> its not a conspiracy.
> 
> its a lousy business model.
> 
> we warned you because jokers like you pushed the price of these stocks up and have now buggered the market.
> 
> if you don't like the criticism, tough.
> 
> read every post mate, its all there.
> 
> gg




Hi garpal ,
Business model has been around for centuries mate , please don't confuse Mac with sub prime securitisations that have lead to the demise of some great institutions. 

This has caused the cost of credit to rise which will effect MQG.

What I was trying to say is when a stock has dived why jump in with your opinion when obivously it has no positive effect... ie: buyer beware ... after a 24% fall they already are  

It's a bit simplistic of you to say that a buyer of an investment bank can stuff the market up

Anyway this is my last post on the subject, but will will say MQG holders do what you must and good fortune 

expected better than that from you Garpal as I have read some of your other posts

Just my opinion only cheers


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

nick2fish said:


> Hi garpal ,
> Business model has been around for centuries mate , please don't confuse Mac with sub prime securitisations that have lead to the demise of some great institutions.
> 
> This has caused the cost of credit to rise which will effect MQG.
> 
> What I was trying to say is when a stock has dived why jump in with your opinion when obivously it has no positive effect... ie: buyer beware ... after a 24% fall they already are
> 
> It's a bit simplistic of you to say that a buyer of an investment bank can stuff the market up
> 
> Anyway this is my last post on the subject, but will will say MQG holders do what you must and good fortune
> 
> expected better than that from you Garpal as I have read some of your other posts
> 
> Just my opinion only cheers




Apologies for any offence.

I have long been dubious about their business model, packaging and fee structure.

I don't admire their executives for their millions.

Although I do admire Twiggy Forrest for building Fortescue, good luck to him with his millions.

Best of luck with your investments
.

gg


----------



## skyQuake

nomore4s said:


> Skyquake alot of that vol is due to the options expiry or whatever today, not a true indication of the vol.
> 
> The weak close doesn't bode well considering all the other banks closed on the highs.
> 
> My bet is maybe a small bounce (to around $34-$36) to come soon and then down past these lows.




SPI rollover today, oppies 25th. They would have screwd around with SQ in the morning but most of the vol came on in the arvo. I have absolutely no disagreement about the small bounce. (I had a $33 target just for gap close), but in essence, im saying macq can go lower but it wont go bankrupt. Good for a short term trade, reassess as market provides more clues.


----------



## Seneca60BC

What ever your views, a profit of 2 billion dollars last year is nothing to laugh at - even if they make half that this year - yea alot of cookies to go round LOL


----------



## Seneca60BC

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Interesting point.
> 
> Can you expand?
> 
> Buy in fear  etc etc
> 
> MQG are on the nose, have been and may be in the future.
> 
> Yours is a light shining amongst a veritable rain of s**t on this shorters dream.
> 
> gg




Global mortgage securitisation markets have been effectively closed for the past six months. As a result, Macquarie substantially reduced its mortgage origination in Australia and ceased mortgage activity in the US. These businesses represented less than one per cent of total operating profit in the year to
31 March 2007.

Source MQG2008 Annual Report.


----------



## Sunder

Here comes the roller coaster...

I put in an order at limit $30 trade, 500 units. 

If I don't get it, I don't get it. 

I have this scary B&B Deja Vu feeling though.

Edit: Missed. Indicative pre-open went to $33.00


----------



## justjohn

where's all the chicken littles & bad news bears now,probably praying to there chart gods.Had to look in the archives for old MQG  the saying ''no news is good news'' is on the money today


----------



## white_goodman

if they come off the high im still gonna short them this arvo, especially if the XAO follows suit... still reckon its a house of cards over there...

just got back from Mac Bank building actually, dw the windows are tightly fixed so no chance of jumpers..


----------



## ROE

Well done for those who game to come in yesterday .. now they can cash out and take massive profit 

Yesterday must have been a lot of short selling and margin call ... I suspect a lot of people would have margin on MQG.


----------



## ROE

Seneca60BC said:


> What ever your views, a profit of 2 billion dollars last year is nothing to laugh at - even if they make half that this year - yea alot of cookies to go round LOL




Trouble with leverage is they magnified both ways, pretty simple maths really

say you got $100 dollars you invest and you get 10%
so you end up with $110 bucks

you got $100 you borrow another $200
end of year you got $330 minus interest so you may end up with $320
so double your profit.

Next year bear market hit down say 25% down
your $110 = 82.5
your $330 back to $247 plus you got to pay interest so you
back to around $220

now out of you $100 buck you got $20 buck left because you still own $200

but look at it when you don't borrow you still got $82.5
see the magnification of a down turn.. MASSIVE ...

it just a rough calculation but as you can see, on the way down it could cost you 3-4 times as on the way up.

if this trend pro-long you end up with negative equity and you lose everything

but people lend you the money don't show you this scenario they only show you the $330 profit part  so you borrow and borrow and eventually lose everything like Eddy of ABS and BNB and Alco and MFS etc..


----------



## Sunder

white_goodman said:


> just got back from Mac Bank building actually, dw the windows are tightly fixed so no chance of jumpers..




They had better get solid bullet proof glass. 

I thought more modern share traders were more like this:


----------



## xoa

Seneca60BC said:


> What ever your views, a profit of 2 billion dollars last year is nothing to laugh at - even if they make half that this year - yea alot of cookies to go round LOL




Lehman Brothers made a profit of over 4 billion dollars last year.

Things can turn very bad very quickly.


----------



## white_goodman

up over 40% today.... wow, if you had the balls to buy in yesterday my hat off to you guys...

still gonna short this eventually tho


----------



## white_goodman

whats happened it jsut went 40-50% in 2 mins, i jsut cashed in on soemthing that i dont even understand


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

One of Aust's largest if not the largest investment bank up 50% at its peak intra day

Amazing times we live in


----------



## justjohn

Julia said:


> Justjohn, if you haven't noticed all the multiple notes of caution and warning about MQG for more than two years now, you just haven't been looking.




Thanks for the advice Julia but by not panicking and using common sense that this stock was grossly over sold, in 24hours I've turned a $15k defeciet into a $24K profit and that's missing todays highs of $38-$39+  .After a few years on the ASF you get use to the scare-mongering which takes place by certain people,especially by members who dont own the stock


----------



## white_goodman

justjohn said:


> Thanks for the advice Julia but by not panicking and using common sense that this stock was grossly over sold, in 24hours I've turned a $15k defeciet into a $24K profit and that's missing todays highs of $38-$39+  .After a few years on the ASF you get use to the scare-mongering which takes place by certain people,especially by members who dont own the stock




how much difference a day makes, party at your house tonight.... im pretty happy, i got a weeks pay in 45secs literally...

however its worth noting as a casual cadet im at slave labour practically


----------



## Gundini

What a difference a day makes! 

All good for MQC now? 

I feel sorry for those who capitulated and missed the spike...


----------



## white_goodman

Gundini said:


> What a difference a day makes!
> 
> All good for MQC now?
> 
> I feel sorry for those who capitulated and missed the spike...




far from out of the woods yet me thinks for the house of cards in 1 Martin Place...

i think tonight on the US will prove incredibly interesting, i may even check when i get home later tonight


----------



## YELNATS

Gundini said:


> What a difference a day makes!
> 
> All good for MQC now?
> 
> I feel sorry for those who capitulated and missed the spike...




Now it's case of "where to from here?". Will the following weeks see the beginning of a sustained recovery or a resumption of the downward trend? After observing the demise of AFG and BNB, no doubt many today took the opportunity to exit MQG to avoid further losses.


----------



## white_goodman

YELNATS said:


> Now it's case of "where to from here?". Will the following weeks see the beginning of a sustained recovery or a resumption of the downward trend? After observing the demise of AFG and BNB, no doubt many today took the opportunity to exit MQG to avoid further losses.




from what ive seen on my charts im pretty sure the xao is now having trouble getting through an old line of support...now reistance. if we have a less the stellar wall street or weekend news i expect a down move... however the strength of the down move may indicate a few things....

however im an idiot so dont listen to my harball theories


----------



## The Mint Man

justjohn said:


> where's all the chicken littles & bad news bears now,probably praying to there chart gods.Had to look in the archives for old MQG  the saying ''no news is good news'' is on the money today



They were probably off buying back their shorts, eating ours or both.

I got in with a small amount yesterday @ $26.80 and sold @ $34.80 on the bell today.... I was away for the best part of the day so I missed the 40-50% up  I expected a bounce but not like that.... MQG even got a mention in the US Yahoo! finance articles

Cheers


----------



## Seneca60BC

xoa said:


> Lehman Brothers made a profit of over 4 billion dollars last year.
> 
> Things can turn very bad very quickly.




And how much did they report in the quarterly reports?  A few billions $$ in loss.  Thats the difference.


----------



## JTLP

If you fall from 40 to 20 that's a 50% loss.

A rise from 20 to 30 is a 50% gain.

This 50% is nothing for some of the LT holders on here. As YT said...strange strange times we live in.


----------



## CAB SAV

Citi have today rated MQG as a Hold, value $30.22, 12mth target $36.26.
Should hold up with shorters laying off.


----------



## Julia

justjohn said:


> Thanks for the advice Julia but by not panicking and using common sense that this stock was grossly over sold, in 24hours I've turned a $15k defeciet into a $24K profit and that's missing todays highs of $38-$39+  .After a few years on the ASF you get use to the scare-mongering which takes place by certain people,especially by members who dont own the stock



Excellent.   So have you taken the profit?
Btw I wouldn't have sold with the loss you were showing then either.
My point was to suggest recognising the downtrend some months ago, say when the stock moved below the MA October/November 07, and exiting then, thus preserving your profit if you'd been a long term holder.
But perhaps you weren't?   Perhaps you bought into the downtrend?
And, if it's relevant, I have owned this stock.  Got out at the point I described above.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

justjohn said:


> Thanks for the advice Julia but by not panicking and using common sense that this stock was grossly over sold, in 24hours I've turned a $15k defeciet into a $24K profit and that's missing todays highs of $38-$39+ .After a few years on the ASF you get use to the scare-mongering which takes place by certain people,especially by members who dont own the stock






The Mint Man said:


> They were probably off buying back their shorts, eating ours or both.
> 
> I got in with a small amount yesterday @ $26.80 and sold @ $34.80 on the bell today.... I was away for the best part of the day so I missed the 40-50% up  I expected a bounce but not like that.... MQG even got a mention in the US Yahoo! finance articles
> 
> Cheers






Julia said:


> Excellent.   So have you taken the profit?
> Btw I wouldn't have sold with the loss you were showing then either.
> My point was to suggest recognising the downtrend some months ago, say when the stock moved below the MA October/November 07, and exiting then, thus preserving your profit if you'd been a long term holder.
> But perhaps you weren't?   Perhaps you bought into the downtrend?
> And, if it's relevant, I have owned this stock.  Got out at the point I described above.




And what are you going to do next justjohn, well done mate , it must have been a shocker of a day for you when it tanked.

A good buy and sell mint. A nice profit.

Agree Julia, interesting to see how it pans out, should be a charting play, although shorting being banned will take some momentum out of this stock, on the up as well as the down.

gg


----------



## Aussiest

YELNATS said:


> Now it's case of "where to from here?". Will the following weeks see the beginning of a sustained recovery or a resumption of the downward trend?




Resumption of the down trend. $40.00 will become the very strong resistance.

.................................


----------



## white_goodman

whats the go with the new CEO selling all his shares in the company off-market?

surely this is a sign not all is right over there


----------



## ROE

CAB SAV said:


> Citi have today rated MQG as a Hold, value $30.22, 12mth target $36.26.
> Should hold up with shorters laying off.




don't pay too much attention to broker recommendation, pay more attention on understand the business and how it makes its money.

I play a general rules when all brokers recommend Buy I sell...when they all said Sell I buy provided I understand the business and have fair probably I will make money on this stock.

15-18 months or so ago all broker recommend DMP Sell  I buy 
look at it, it survive the worse financial market melt down, it stock has been risen a fair bit from $2.20 when I bought to now at $3.30 and I pocket a fair share of dividend since then.


----------



## Mofra

white_goodman said:


> whats the go with the new CEO selling all his shares in the company off-market?
> 
> surely this is a sign not all is right over there



Nobody knows the business like Alan Moss - the guy used to take two suitcases of reading material on his "holidays".

The valuation methods used to determined management fees hacked out of the satellite funds are fundamentlly flawed and as credit tightens, M&A activity dries up. The two biggest contributers to the MQG bottom line are going to struggle, which means a "Buying Opportunity" for MQG is coming up very soon, as there are two prossibilities that lay ahead:

a. Re-balance the valuation on utlities & infrastructure assets which will deliver a short term hit in management fee revenue
b.  Keek the current valuations & wear the push credit costs back to the satellite funds to protect the parent entity, which will damage the management credibility of the Macquarie brand

They do have a much better liquidity position that their peers, however a ~250 basis point jump in their inter-bank lending rate is all the information I need to avoid a long position in Macquarie in it's current situation


----------



## Aussiest

white_goodman said:


> whats the go with the new CEO selling all his shares in the company off-market?
> 
> surely this is a sign not all is right over there




You've got to wonder. I'm still not convinced on MQG. It will probably bounce a bit on Monday again, but it could be choppy. Good for a short on Monday pm. i think.

Btw, white_goodman, which broker do you use, if you don't mind me asking? I can't take a short out on MQG with the one i'm with.


----------



## Aussiest

Just to clarify: who sold their shares in MQG recently? Was it Alan Moss? Or the new CEO? And, wouldn't the new CEO have to declare his sale?


----------



## white_goodman

Aussiest said:


> Just to clarify: who sold their shares in MQG recently? Was it Alan Moss? Or the new CEO? And, wouldn't the new CEO have to declare his sale?




it was the new ceo nicholas moore, him as a person and his own private company have ZERO shares in MQG now, go check the anouncements its like the 12th of sept... im jsut suprised it hasnt been made such a big deal, unless im reading the announcement wrong.

yeh monday 3.45pm ill be looking to short, im currently short on it, but the damn US screwed that one up last night


----------



## white_goodman

Aussiest said:


> You've got to wonder. I'm still not convinced on MQG. It will probably bounce a bit on Monday again, but it could be choppy. Good for a short on Monday pm. i think.
> 
> Btw, white_goodman, which broker do you use, if you don't mind me asking? I can't take a short out on MQG with the one i'm with.




im with IG markets, its ok for me.... if it get near $40 then comes down a bit like friday itll be a short signal for me atleast...

also when the shorting ban ends in the US i think it may be a good opportunity to get shorting financials again


----------



## Aussiest

white_goodman said:


> im with IG markets, its ok for me.... if it get near $40 then comes down a bit like friday itll be a short signal for me atleast...
> 
> also when the shorting ban ends in the US i think it may be a good opportunity to get shorting financials again




Thanks Goodman. I've been thinking of using IG Markets for a while now, but you don't recieve any interest on your funds if you are not using them. I'm currently with MQ Prime, and they pulled the pin on one of my favourite short selections just before i joined. Was not happy.


----------



## peterh

white_goodman said:


> it was the new ceo nicholas moore, him as a person and his own private company have ZERO shares in MQG now, go check the anouncements its like the 12th of sept... im jsut suprised it hasnt been made such a big deal, unless im reading the announcement wrong.
> 
> yeh monday 3.45pm ill be looking to short, im currently short on it, but the damn US screwed that one up last night




The announcement on the 12th was for MCQ - Macquarie Capital Alliance Group. I'm guessing he still has MQG shares.


----------



## IFocus

MQG chart

Nice down trend

Looks like a steady sell off by the funds since mid 2007

Go smashed recently by the risk adverse, ops sorry nasty short sellers

BTW I tried to get set short at 39.83 couldn't source the stock......missed the trade seems everyone else was already set......but how could that be?


.


----------



## The Mint Man

Garpal Gumnut said:


> And what are you going to do next justjohn, well done mate , it must have been a shocker of a day for you when it tanked.
> 
> A good buy and sell mint. A nice profit.
> 
> gg



Thanks mate, not bad for my first real trade I recon.... however I still hold the parcel that I have always had.... happy to collect divys on that lot for now.



Aussiest said:


> Resumption of the down trend. $40.00 will become the very strong resistance.
> 
> .................................




I wouldn't be surprised to see it go through $40 on Monday, after all, all the good news is to do with the financial crisis ATM.... if that makes sense
How long the good run can last is anyones guess.

Cheers


----------



## pepperoni

Wouldnt touch these guys until I could get comfortable about their forecasts ... cant see any new business for them any time soon and expect them to trend flatish or down.


----------



## ROE

Kuri said:


> I found this an interesting thought ROE. I am one of the crazy people who bought in at 70 and was rubbing my hands at high 80's not long after. Due to the mixed messages I have held on and am obviously looking at a loss of about $3k at todays price. Looking at your reply you are different than every one else thinking at this loss it is better to hold and wait for a rebound. Do you think it will make it back to the mid 40's?
> 
> Interested to hear your thoughts.




I dont like their model of business that why I dont buy them in the first place.
I just advice people to be caution because of their model.

It sound simple enough in what they do but it far more complicated on paper.
debt are all over the place, most of their fund revalue every year and how they count profit and lost I just have no idea.

It just too complicated... My knowledge is just as limited as some of the people here and I don't pretend I know it all

so because I cant understand it I usually don't touch it... it easy suck into the market exuberant when the raging bull keep charging...

I prefer simpler business like  selling pizza, coke, hiring pallets like BXB
where I know the cost is $1 and they sell for $1.20 they make a profit of 20 cents. Also Stocks that strongly charge up doesn't attract my attention
but stock that fall out of fashion and brokers all but dis-own it usually got mine. 

I dont think MQG going to get back to $80 any time soon it be hovering around this price until people are comfortable with what they do and they prove to the market they can survive a credit crunch and still profitable.

I think you have to learn to be an independent thinker and don't get suck into the market exuberant.

I also applied a bit of probability to my stock purchase once I identify it.
it goes something like this.

say when BHP was around $40, it look good and it look solid with everyone reckon the china is stronger for longer and they keep making money for years to come.

I have no doubt BHP will make money but I take on a different logic and probability count.

BHP is around 150Billion company for me to double my money at $40 to $80
BHP has to grown to 300 Billion dollar company sometimes in the future
would it be possible and how long? 

I dont think it grow to a $300 Billion dollars company in my life time 
so my take is no better not buy at $40 bucks  better buy something much smaller and has much better prospect of double triple their size in a reasonable time.

Next time you buy something like that applied this sort of logic, dont look at a stock price at $40 or $80 look at the whole picture. 

if I have $12 Billion dollars can I start up a company and compete with CHEP own by BXB and beat them? the answer is 80% no and 20% yes
so BXB is my guy in CHEP 

If I have unlimited funds can I beat Coke for soft drink, answer is probably not and no one has indefinite fund so coke is the man for soft drink


----------



## ROE

Bolivia said:


> MQG has a banking license which means, as a deposit taker, deposits are guaranteed by the RBA. That is why thay have all the Tier 1 ratios etc and are regulated by APRA.




Wrong ... All the money you deposit in the Australian bank are un-secure creditor when they crash you along with everyone else has to line up and collect your credit ..the big guys get it first then its your turn.

why do you think banks pay you  8% on term deposit and government bond offer 4%-6% ? that is because government bonds is as close to risk free as you can get. That extra few percent is for the risk should the bank goes belly up.

There are some noise last year where government will pay you up to $20K for your deposit should the banks goes belly up...so if you got 100K in there and it goes bust and you cant recover the money, the government will pay you 20K and that is it.

People don't spread their deposit into multiple banks and the biggest one for no reason, it offer a little less risk


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I have managed to clean out my Macquarie CMT Account so really don't give a stuff what happens to MQG. It took 3 working days.

A few days in the garden though helps put things in perspective. Its the law of the jungle. Grubs eating leaves, birds eating grubs, a kookaburra eyeing off a sunbird's nest.  

My guess is that MQG is just as vulnerable to further falls despite the lack of short sellers. 

Ask yourself who is going to buy them. Not short sellers covering.

Maybe punters with high moral values supporting a worthy institution. I jest.

Perhaps folk wanting to make a profit. 

The monthly chart shows MQG to be still in a massive down trend. It broke through support at $40 and this will provide resistance for some time to come.  So if you can't make a profit shorting it how can you make a profit buying it when there are no buyers.

gg


----------



## Macquack

Bolivia said:


> MQG has a banking license which means, as a deposit taker, deposits are guaranteed by the RBA. That is why thay have all the Tier 1 ratios etc and are *regulated by APRA*.




Is that the same "APRA" that was regulating HIH Insurance before it collapsed.

I reckon, APRA would not have a ****ing clue what Macquarie Group is up to.


----------



## white_goodman

Macquack said:


> Is that the same "APRA" that was regulating HIH Insurance before it collapsed.
> 
> I reckon, APRA would not have a ****ing clue what Macquarie Group is up to.




i work in the same building as APRA, they are a mob of absolute turkeys..

but seriously whats the deal with the ceo selling out?


----------



## Mofra

Macquack said:


> Is that the same "APRA" that was regulating HIH Insurance before it collapsed.
> 
> I reckon, APRA would not have a ****ing clue what Macquarie Group is up to.



It's a moot point anyway - the restructure means that all but 2 arms of the Macquarie business are held outside the banking arm and thus those businesses are not subject to APRA regulations. 

A cynic would suggest that was a major reason for the restructure anyway, but I'm sure that couldn't be the case


----------



## ROE

white_goodman said:


> i work in the same building as APRA, they are a mob of absolute turkeys..
> 
> but seriously whats the deal with the ceo selling out?




Did you ever watch how Enron collapse ? It was before my time but I like to study stock market history and the market has a habit of repeating history so I like to know and take advantage of opportunities 

Basicly before Enron collapse all the senior staffs start to sell out all their holding while asking employee to contribute and buy more company stock, they also like analyst give them price target and give a company good coverage, they also blame short seller for their depress stock price 


I have no idea what will happen to MQG, let mr market decide but but the pattern sound awfully similar  

maybe you need to keep a bingo card of stuff people do when company goes pear shape, when all points are tick/marked you  shout Bingo and get out


----------



## Julia

I can't remember the person's name, but the bloke who predicted the collapse of Enron has cast similar notes of dire predictions about Macquarie Group.


----------



## nick2fish

Well reading the notice carefully you will come to
Nicholas Moore (selling out sic)
Nature of change
Example: on-market trade, off-market trade, exercise of
options, issue of securities under dividend reinvestment
plan, participation in buy-back

*Securities transferred via off-market transfer, as result of the privatisation of MCQ.*


----------



## nick2fish

Heres another director on the 10th 

Peter M Kirby brought 38,500 stapled securties in MAP
Thats all Director notices I could find for this month 
Thankfully naked shortings gone 

Just dosen't sound like abandon ship to me

And lastly the saying:
"What dosen't kill ya ,makes you stronger" I think applies to an investment bank which due to prudent risk managment systems, has the good fortune to stand witness to the demise of some its competitors  Cheers


----------



## ROE

nick2fish said:


> Heres another director on the 10th
> 
> Peter M Kirby brought 38,500 stapled securties in MAP
> Thats all Director notices I could find for this month
> Thankfully naked shortings gone
> 
> Just dosen't sound like abandon ship to me
> 
> And lastly the saying:
> "What dosen't kill ya ,makes you stronger" I think applies to an investment bank which due to prudent risk managment systems, has the good fortune to stand witness to the demise of some its competitors  Cheers




MAP got nothing to do with MQG they just have Mac name because MQG float them and has control interest, the majority of the shares are own by mum and dad and institution. If MQG goes they just liquidate their position in MAP and that the end of it. Someone else will step in and run it.

the thing you should be watching for is any directors buying MQG at this price  or offload them for that matter.


----------



## nick2fish

Yep... Thanks Roe , am quite aware of all that. 

I am just trying to clear up the fact that there has been no trading of MAC BANK shares in the last month by MGQ directors. 

You used a Quote from White Goodman that mentioned a director sale to start a thread that insinuated that MGQ was going the way of Enron or did I misinterpret? 

Just clearing things up for the many MGQ investors who use these pages and are after informed opinions whether to continue to hold in these dark times. Cheers


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I have managed to clean out my Macquarie CMT Account so really don't give a stuff what happens to MQG. It took 3 working days.
> 
> A few days in the garden though helps put things in perspective. Its the law of the jungle. Grubs eating leaves, birds eating grubs, a kookaburra eyeing off a sunbird's nest.
> 
> My guess is that MQG is just as vulnerable to further falls despite the lack of short sellers.
> 
> Ask yourself who is going to buy them. Not short sellers covering.
> 
> Maybe punters with high moral values supporting a worthy institution. I jest.
> 
> Perhaps folk wanting to make a profit.
> 
> The monthly chart shows MQG to be still in a massive down trend. It broke through support at $40 and this will provide resistance for some time to come.  So if you can't make a profit shorting it how can you make a profit buying it when there are no buyers.
> 
> gg




I still feel that MQG has a way to fall yet. 

With no buyers and no short sellers to encourage liquidity it may have to engineer some further financial structures to encourage buyers. In this climate of fear this could be difficult. They don't have the balance sheet to buy their own shares or the credibility to raise further funds.

And once shorting starts again who is going to be the first to be shorted? Why MQG of course.

See the chart in the above post.

gg


----------



## ROE

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I still feel that MQG has a way to fall yet.
> 
> With no buyers and no short sellers to encourage liquidity it may have to engineer some further financial structures to encourage buyers. In this climate of fear this could be difficult. They don't have the balance sheet to buy their own shares or the credibility to raise further funds.
> 
> And once shorting starts again who is going to be the first to be shorted? Why MQG of course.
> 
> See the chart in the above post.
> 
> gg




And with the complete banned on short, many paper articles is reported it's MQG driven banned...so there are a lot of pissed off funds managers and people who use short for a living ..they are not making many friends and when the door open  MQG is in for a wild ride 

personally I think it's a stupid idea having complete banned ... they just delay the inevitable for extra few weeks


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret

In response to Roe quote....."so there are a lot of *pissed off funds managers **and people who use short for a living *.."

Not as pissed off as myself for a simple typing error that had my MQG shares sold far too cheapily midday . Here's to hoping it drops in the next 24 hours so I can jump back in. Thank goodness I don't type orders for fund managers! ,perhaps I'm an anarchic short seller with a typo problem!


----------



## mwu

The ASX report only shows very small volume (2m+) net covered and naked short positions against MQG, compared to an article in AFR that quotes a number of about 50m.  Can anybody give some insight? Thanks.

Here is the report on MQG:

Covered net Short Sale positions and Naked net Short Sale positions, which result from the exercise of ASX ETOs, as at end of day 23-Sep-2008 (inclusive of net short positions prior to 22-Sep-2008)

ASX Code: MQG
Product Class:  FPO 
Reported Short/Borrowed Volume: 2,626,760
Short Sell  Limit: 28,101,637
%Short/Borrowed: .93


----------



## prana

NA bailout has been approved. May provide some short to medium term support but we're not out of the water yet. Wonder how high this one can go on this news...especially given the Belgian Bank is now in trouble after Wamu's failure.


----------



## Kauri

There are rumours of a Japanese mega-bank buying Australia"s Macquarie Bank and market talk suggests that a decent amount of AUD/JPY has been purchased overnight by this Asian bank named ..#@**.......

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## madbull

I'm a noob investor, unluckily with some MQG stocks which have plummeted from when I purchased it.  Is this buyout good news for MQG?  How will it affect mqg in the short term assuming this does occur? 

Thanks 
MadBull


----------



## Kauri

madbull said:


> I'm a noob investor, unluckily with some MQG stocks which have plummeted from when I purchased it. Is this buyout good news for MQG? How will it affect mqg in the short term assuming this does occur?
> 
> Thanks
> MadBull




  It is only a *totally unfounded, possibly mischievious rumour* at this stage... possibly put about by the reformed shorters trying thier hand on the light side..

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## dhukka

Caught this interview on CNBC with a well known investor that has been short MQG and is still short. He talks in a common sense way about the flaws in MQG's business model.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

dhukka said:


> Caught this interview on CNBC with a well known investor that has been short MQG and is still short. He talks in a common sense way about the flaws in MQG's business model.




The following is a chart showing the harmonic averages of 5, 15 and 30 day simple moving averages plotted against the daily price of MQG. 

It is beloved of Dawn Bolton Smith, one of the doyens of Australian charting.

It shows MQG still in a downtrend on price and all averages, a shorters dream when shorting recommences.

gg


----------



## nick2fish

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It shows MQG still in a downtrend on price and all averages, a shorters dream when shorting recommences.
> 
> gg




It'll have to stay a dream till Jan when the ban on Financial shorting is lifted...sorry, but in the meantime you may want to study almost every resource stock on the market, my guess is they may now be looking even better. 
A shorters wet dream you may even say  and that restriction is only a month away from being lifted


----------



## MRC & Co

^^^^

Or you can just sell the futs, and catch them all in one juicy basket!  

Available now!


----------



## sammy84

The sentiment in all the posts seems pretty negative for MQG, which is obviously visible in their price as well. Does this mean that the general consensus out there is that the macquarie model is completely broken or just needs tinkering?


----------



## nick2fish

LoL .....you have opened up a can of worms now sammy This will make for interesting reading over the next couple of days


----------



## Mofra

sammy84 said:


> The sentiment in all the posts seems pretty negative for MQG, which is obviously visible in their price as well. Does this mean that the general consensus out there is that the macquarie model is completely broken or just needs tinkering?



Independant valuations of their infrastructure assets would be a start... and a change to prevent "management fees" the spun off assets paid to MQG being higher than the year's cash receipts (as opposed to increased borrowings).

Of course, when has an unfettered credit ever impacted on the financials of a bank


----------



## Macquack

Shares in Macquarie Group rose 16.5 per cent ($3.40) to end at $24 today.
Head groupie Nick (give me) Moore reported a 43 per cent fall in first half net profit to $604 million, which was adjusted to be better than market expectations.

Moore *refrained from taking a charge against* Macquarie Infrastructure Group, the world's biggest owner of toll roads, and Macquarie Airports, even after they slid more than 50 percent this year. He said "infrastructure assets were resilient in economic slowdowns".
If they are so robust, why has their share price halved?

*Macquarie Asset Valuation Policy*
1. Revalue ALL assets when they go up in value (unconditionally).
2. Selectively write-down SOME assets when they devalue by less than 50%.
3. NEVER (under any circumstances) write-down an asset if the devaluation is greater than 50%.


----------



## KFC soup

this could work if they can keep the funding facilities,
with the borrowing cost coming down and all.
the only downside now is more write downs, which is inevitable
though i don't like how it's paying so much dividents in an environment like this, guess they don't want their share prices get too low


----------



## AS414

Some interssting insights into their MMG operations here: http://business.theage.com.au/busin...at-macquarie-media-20081216-6z90.html?page=-1

More skimming of cash from other operations...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

The Macquarie model is now unravelling.

MIG looks like the first satellite to hit reality full on.

From Compareshares.


gg





News
MIG cuts valuation of toll roads by 24%


AAP
16/12/2008 4:55pm 	Email to a friend Print article

Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG) has cut its valuation of its toll roads assets by 24 per cent because of the dislocation in global economic and market conditions.

The lower asset values reflect lower forecast traffic volumes for its Northern Hemisphere toll roads, higher financing costs and the effect of foreign exchange movements.

MIG, one of Macquarie Group Ltd's satellite funds, said on Tuesday its portfolio valuation at December 31 this year was expected to be about $6.5 billion, down from $8.6 billion at the end of June.

The new valuation translates to a net asset backing of $3.02 per stapled security, down from $3.84 previously.

MIG's securities fell 4.4 per cent, or 7.5 cents, to $1.63 on Tuesday.

MIG owns stakes in 11 toll roads in seven countries, including the US, UK and Australia, which the company bought into at an early stage to take advantage of development and expansion of the assets.

The company then sells the toll roads at a later date, as it has done with the Lusoponte toll road in Portugal and aims to do with Westlink M7 in Sydney, once the growth in value slows.

In October, MIG forecast its earnings to grow in 2008/09 as the company increased tolls on its motorways.

Toll revenue in the September quarter had risen 2.8 per cent, even though traffic volumes fell.

The current portfolio valuation will be updated and fleshed out when MIG reports its first half results on February 19.

MIG also announced on Tuesday it would pay a final distribution of 10 cent per security for the half year ending December 31, which would leave the fund with about $1 billion in cash.


----------



## investorpaul

> Macquarie has cash and liquid assets of A$32.1 billion compared with short-term wholesale issued securities of A$12.7 billion, it said in today’s statement. The firm has raised A$10.9 billion in term funding since the government in November introduced a plan to guarantee wholesale debt sold by lenders operating in Australia, it said.




Macquaire group article

I had heard of Maquarie raise some cash but I didn't realise their cash and liquid assets totaled $43 bn. Thats a huge some of money. When things calm down and begin to return to normality they should be well positioned to capitalise on any bargains laying around.

For now though I still think its wait and see


----------



## juw177

investorpaul said:


> I didn't realise their cash and liquid assets totaled $43 bn. Thats a huge some of money.




Except it is not real money, it is paper that no one wants to buy.

And they say "since there is no market for it, I will value it myself"


----------



## djdutts

*Macquarie MQG in 2009?!*

Hello all!

Just thinking about MQG share price this year. I've bought MQG at prices ranging from $20 back to $35 a while ago. I believe it's a long term investment, but any ideas from anyone what will happen to MQG share price in 2009?

I believe the market will pick up second half of the year - surely MQG at low $20s is an excellent buy?

Thoughts please


----------



## Largesse

no advice given but it bounced pretty strongly off $20 last time it got there.... different reasons for the plunge that time though...

i'll definitely be looking at it if it gets down that low again


----------



## djdutts

Largesse said:


> no advice given but it bounced pretty strongly off $20 last time it got there.... different reasons for the plunge that time though...
> 
> i'll definitely be looking at it if it gets down that low again




Yeah, same here. $22.07 at the moment 

Very tempting. Surely in 18/24 months it'll be good?

Hmmmmm


----------



## djdutts

$20.43!!!!!!!!!!!

Jump on board! Surely this is GREAT value for Macquarie?!

or I am I crazy?


----------



## sammy84

Fantastic company in my opinion. However that means nothing in this market. 20.8 restance has broken so it could be catch fallng knives at this point


----------



## djdutts

Catch falling knives?

Sorry - don't know what this means?!


----------



## Julia

*Re: Macquarie MQG in 2009?!*



djdutts said:


> I believe the market will pick up second half of the year




 If you believe the market will pick up in the second half of the year, could you outline the reasons why you think this will happen?


----------



## sammy84

djdutts said:


> Catch falling knives?
> 
> Sorry - don't know what this means?!




Sorry it means the share price is falling and is yet to find a base. Hence you can get very hurt trying to catch it


----------



## vincent191

In my humble opinion MQG will never be the same again. They had a very complex business model and Companies like Allco & banks like Babcock & Brown have tried to copy the model and have failed in  spectacular fashion.

Will the Macquarie model ever regain it's former glory? Will the millionaire factory ever be the same again? That is the 64 dollar question that punters will have to decide for themselves.

There is a report out today claiming that Westpac is the best bank in the world. If you agree with that assesment than how about investing in WBC rather than MQG?

_I am not a licensed financial advisor, any opinion expressed here is purely my own. I have shares in both WBC & MQG._


----------



## jackson8

djdutts said:


> $20.43!!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> Jump on board! Surely this is GREAT value for Macquarie?!
> 
> or I am I crazy?




if you look at the fall from grace of all the banks, resource stocks and the rest ........how do you determine what is good value  ???


----------



## djdutts

jackson8 said:


> if you look at the fall from grace of all the banks, resource stocks and the rest ........how do you determine what is good value  ???




Agreed - but the fall from grace is not forever. There WILL be a bounce. The stocks WILL recover. Australia's most-successful investment bank at that rate means to me that it is good value. I believe that this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy, and MQG is one of the best.

Remember, all things that fall have to stop and rebound sooner or later.


----------



## prawn_86

djdutts said:


> Remember, all things that fall have to stop and rebound sooner or later.




Just like Japan did hey? Their index was 40000ish in the 90's now its 8000ish and never reached its highs again.

You seem to be making a newbies mistake of assuming it WILL bounce again. What if its not for ten years? Or twenty? Or ever?

If you held 1k of every stock when the DOW was created how much would you have? ZERO, all those co's have gone broke. (Thanks to TH for that one  )

EDIT - People were saying the same as your quote for BNB, AFG, ABS etc etc. Think about it


----------



## djdutts

prawn_86 said:


> Just like Japan did hey? Their index was 40000ish in the 90's now its 8000ish and never reached its highs again.
> 
> You seem to be making a newbies mistake of assuming it WILL bounce again. What if its not for ten years? Or twenty? Or ever?
> 
> If you held 1k of every stock when the DOW was created how much would you have? ZERO, all those co's have gone broke. (Thanks to TH for that one  )
> 
> EDIT - People were saying the same as your quote for BNB, AFG, ABS etc etc. Think about it




Newbies? I've been trading for seven years and have nearly $700k worth of stock! Hardly a newbie! Just the first time I've been on these forums.

BNB went bang as they tried to copy the MQG model.


----------



## sammy84

BNB and MQG are entirely different entities. The quality of assets and the amount of leverage differences set them miles apart. Have to agree with prawn however, a bounce is never a certainty. Whilst I do anticipate the MQG will recover, who knows how low MQG will go till that bounce happens...


----------



## djdutts

sammy84 said:


> BNB and MQG are entirely different entities. The quality of assets and the amount of leverage differences set them miles apart. Have to agree with prawn however, a bounce is never a certainty. Whilst I do anticipate the MQG will recover, who knows how low MQG will go till that bounce happens...




Agree - MQG is a different class altogether. I disagree about the bounce - that is a certainty, just a question of when. I predict second half of 09 will be a marked improvement.


----------



## sammy84

djdutts said:


> Agree - MQG is a different class altogether. I disagree about the bounce - that is a certainty, just a question of when. I predict second half of 09 will be a marked improvement.




Its nice to see that the Bull isn't extinct yet


----------



## prawn_86

djdutts said:


> Agree - MQG is a different class altogether. I disagree about the bounce - that is a certainty, just a question of when. I predict second half of 09 will be a marked improvement.




What do you class as a bounce? What if it keeps falling, but then bounces, but not back to a level where some poeple have bought it? They will still be at a loss

SOme would argue that its better to wait for an uptrend to be confuirmed before buying again, rather than trying to catch a falling knife


----------



## djdutts

Yep, good point.

I'll be buying more at $20 tho!


----------



## JTLP

DJDutts...a few questions if you wouldn't mind answering:

1) For someone who has 700k of stock and doesn't know what falling knives are...how can this be the case? You're not exactly a small fish in the retail sector with cash like that...but it can be forgiven  so i'll continue

2) Why do you think MQG will bounce? And the market in second half of '09? People have asked for analysis...can you provide any? What if I tout that MQG will crash because of their complex model and apparent funding of dividends through evaluations? Does that mean I'm write...especially if I write "it's a certainty!"

3) If you don't mind me asking...at what price did you originally buy MQG at? Or has your keen eye and awareness for 'value' picking spotted MQG and dived in?

4) I'm no Mod but can the one line answers like "it's a certainty!" be removed...seriously it's just hocus and makes this great site resemble a rather unsavoury other stock forum

Thanks...


----------



## M34N

MQG is another one I've been watching lately, the past week or two have seen it hit the lows of last year and before that, 2002. Just looking at the 3 year chart below, it may have a bit further to go down before it breaks up. A few stocks are looking like this, replicating the Dow and it doesn't look positive to be honest. It held the low of last year around $20 today (I think the low was $20.08 to be exact? Someone else may confirm)

Just off the chart, the point it may rebound off seems to be around $10, but $20 is strong support, which has held since the last bull market began in 2003 and I reckon it should hold for now, probably going to rebound to around $30 or so before next leg down? Still see nothing to support this stock, EMA and MACD look like it's pointing down, but I reckon it's just going to trend the Dow and will continue to do so.

Personally after analysing this stock, I reckon there are plenty of other stocks that offer greater reward for less risk


----------



## Gundini

djdutts said:


> Yep, good point.
> 
> I'll be buying more at $20 tho!




While I don't disagree with any on the comments here, I do think MQG is becoming reasonable value.

I listened to their last presentation, not all, it was long and boring for the most, but I heard enough to see solid growth in a variety of areas, and believe the company is aware of the world crisis and has the clout to move forward. 

From memory they have something like $40 Bill in cash under the bed.

They have a stimulus package sitting under the bed!

Do they have skeletons? Maybe... Could they have issues? Definately...

But the sales are on, and these guys are near clearance prices...

Once the next leg down kicks in, I will seriously anchor this one in the portfolio.

PS: The DOW looks angry tonight...


----------



## prana

I don't get it. If someone likes the stock, they buy it. If someone doesn't like it, they sell it - this is the freemarket. I don't see why the constant argument about I'm right, you're wrong - why does it have to get personal all the time ? If a person feels $20 is compelling, then put your order in - again what's with the personal attacks ? Does someone who own $700k need to know the definition of a falling knife ? Maybe $700k for this person is 0.5% of his/her total allocation, and $7k may be 50% of yours, is this a measure of competence ? This is getting pointless...  

Put your order where your mouth is  Have a great weekend :


----------



## Gundini

prana said:


> This is getting pointless...
> 
> :




I agree with every with everything you have said, but this phrase.

It is not pointless when individuals offer their opinions on a public forum, of such high standing as ASF. All posters have various degree of experience, and only a person who has spent the time to think things through come here for confirmation of their idea.

If their idea is flawed, it will get shot down.

If it is solid, it will be supported!

It is not personal, it is a final checking point before you part with your cash!

Anyway, this is off topic...


----------



## jackson8

prana said:


> I don't get it. If someone likes the stock, they buy it. If someone doesn't like it, they sell it - this is the freemarket. I don't see why the constant argument about I'm right, you're wrong - why does it have to get personal all the time ? If a person feels $20 is compelling, then put your order in - again what's with the personal attacks ? Does someone who own $700k need to know the definition of a falling knife ? Maybe $700k for this person is 0.5% of his/her total allocation, and $7k may be 50% of yours, is this a measure of competence ? This is getting pointless...
> 
> Put your order where your mouth is  Have a great weekend :





the market itself is an expression of both sides of the coin
the buyers have their beliefs in a stock and the sellers have their own beliefs ........ two opposing views

thats what this forum is about both sides being able to express their views on any given topic 

its not a personal attack to ask someone to give some analysis of there view as to why they believe a stock is good value no more than asking the opposing position to do the same 

recommendations  one way or the other without analysis or explanation could be viewed as spruiking ,  ramping or down ramping


----------



## Julia

JTLP said:


> DJDutts...a few questions if you wouldn't mind answering:
> 
> 
> 
> 2) Why do you think MQG will bounce? And the market in second half of '09? People have asked for analysis...can you provide any?
> 
> 
> 
> 4) I'm no Mod but can the one line answers like "it's a certainty!" be removed...seriously it's just hocus and makes this great site resemble a rather unsavoury other stock forum
> 
> Thanks...







jackson8 said:


> the market itself is an expression of both sides of the coin
> the buyers have their beliefs in a stock and the sellers have their own beliefs ........ two opposing views
> 
> thats what this forum is about both sides being able to express their views on any given topic
> 
> its not a personal attack to ask someone to give some analysis of their view as to why they believe a stock is good value no more than asking the opposing position to do the same
> 
> recommendations  one way or the other without analysis or explanation could be viewed as spruiking ,  ramping or down ramping




Exactly so.  DJ Jutts:  you may have missed my earlier post asking for the reasons why you're so sure the market will rebound second half of this year?

Interested to know the basis for such certainty.
With thanks.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Julia said:


> Exactly so.  DJ Jutts:  you may have missed my earlier post asking for the reasons why you're so sure the market will rebound second half of this year?
> 
> Interested to know the basis for such certainty.
> With thanks.




Your question is moot Julia.

One would be brave to be long MQG.

Their model has led us in to this debacle, debt, funny figures, on-selling of debt as capital.

I'm not a funnymentalist, so will leave the figures to my betters.

The chart says it all. 

This is a dog, headed for less than $10 , I do not hold thank god


gg


----------



## nomore4s

djdutts said:


> Newbies? I've been trading for seven years and have nearly $700k worth of stock! Hardly a newbie! Just the first time I've been on these forums.
> 
> BNB went bang as they tried to copy the MQG model.




But the question is what was this portfolio worth a year ago? If you have a portfolio that large I have no doubt you have lost a fair portion of it in the last 12 months, the larger the portfolio the harder to liquidate it, there would also be tax implications after 7 years in the bull market we just had.

You have said nothing that points to any sort of decent research or insight. All I see is MQG must be good value at these prices because it's (was?) Australias best investment bank, wtf? That is newbie analysis as already pointed out.
 You have brushed off questions of how you came to these conlusions with  more general sweeping comments. Not one decent bit of analysis in all your posts.



djdutts said:


> Agree - MQG is a different class altogether. I disagree about the bounce - that is a certainty, just a question of when. I predict second half of 09 will be a marked improvement.




Again define a bounce?
By bounce do you mean a sustained uptreand or just a bear rally bounce before falling to new lows?
If MQG is good value now it will be great value at $15 or maybe $12?
If you're so sure about the market rebounding in the 2nd half of 09 why buy now?

FWIW I think MQG is a good chance will be the first bank to drop its D/E, as I find it hard to believe they have managed to get through the credit crunch unscathed.


----------



## nomore4s

I agree GG. My target atm in $12-$15 but in this market it could very well overshoot that.

MQG is actually very weak compared to the general market atm and is the weakest bank atm.. While the XAO has been consolidating MQG has been heading down, if the XAO breaks down it could get real ugly for MQG.

On the attached chart you the lines on the left are the thrusts down and as you can see there is no slowing at all. There is no signs of a turn around - no base - no positive volume. While we may see some sort of bounce it in the future it will be just that - a bounce imo.

If there is any major company in XAO that is at risk of creative accounting  (think Enron) it is MQG imo, their books were hardly transparent in the bullmarket so I doubt that will change in a solid bear market, I just can't see how thay can possibly generate the same profit in the current market


----------



## Julia

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Your question is moot Julia.
> 
> One would be brave to be long MQG.....................



You don't need to convince me, gg!
My post was an attempt to have DJDutts justify his comments.
Nothing more.


----------



## ROE

nomore4s said:


> If there is any major company in XAO that is at risk of creative accounting  (think Enron) it is MQG imo, their books were hardly transparent in the bullmarket so I doubt that will change in a solid bear market, I just can't see how thay can possibly generate the same profit in the current market




Their book is a maze it took a PhD in Quantum Physic to figure it out  do you have a PhD in Physics? then dont look hahah 

all their satellite funds are doggy as hell losing money year in year out and using valuation as a way to calculate profit ...while debt rack up higher and higher in these funds...

 now that is the hall mark of a great company


----------



## Mofra

nomore4s said:


> If there is any major company in XAO that is at risk of creative accounting  (think Enron) it is MQG imo, their books were hardly transparent in the bullmarket so I doubt that will change in a solid bear market, I just can't see how thay can possibly generate the same profit in the current market



I still think their creative accounting methods are _less_ of an issue than their asset valuation models that are used to bleed the satellite funds dry. Charging management fees in excess of cash receipts was always going to be a ticking time bomb, and when you consider Mac value their assets themselves, the old creed of "profit is opinion, cashflow is fact" has never been more apt.


----------



## enigmatic

As a keen investor can you give me a little bit more feedback on to why at $20 I will be a winner in 3 years time, & why i would want to invest in something that requires me to wait 3years before i make a profit.

Surely i should wait a few days when it gets to $19 and then i may only need to wait 2.5years to be in the green.

(Please note I am not advising anyone that if you purchase MQG at $19 you will be in the green in 2.5years)


----------



## djdutts

enigmatic said:


> As a keen investor can you give me a little bit more feedback on to why at $20 I will be a winner in 3 years time, & why i would want to invest in something that requires me to wait 3years before i make a profit.
> 
> Surely i should wait a few days when it gets to $19 and then i may only need to wait 2.5years to be in the green.
> 
> (Please note I am not advising anyone that if you purchase MQG at $19 you will be in the green in 2.5years)




Swings and roundabouts, ups and downs. At the mo, we're on a massive down - we're nearly at the bottom of the hill (if not already), so getting on MQG at this price is a good idea IMO. You could wait until it goes to $19, but who's to say it will and what would you make in dollar value from doing so?

I would suggest getting in now when it's SO low, forgetting about it for three years and then thanking me


----------



## Sean K

djdutts said:


> Swings and roundabouts, ups and downs. At the mo, we're on a massive down - we're nearly at the bottom of the hill (if not already), so getting on MQG at this price is a good idea IMO. You could wait until it goes to $19, but who's to say it will and what would you make in dollar value from doing so?
> 
> I would suggest getting in now when it's SO low, forgetting about it for three years and then thanking me



dj, please do not go anywhere near to providing advice on the forum, and also please add some analysis to your guess that $20 is a bottom. Thanks.


----------



## enigmatic

I have no real TA knowledge, bit more fundy however was looking at the MQG Chart a little bit and i would not say its looking that good normally you would be looking for some indicaiton of a turn arround. If anything MQG is heading down much quicker then earlier


----------



## Sean K

enigmatic said:


> I have no real TA knowledge, bit more fundy however was looking at the MQG Chart a little bit and i would not say its looking that good normally you would be looking for some indicaiton of a turn arround. If anything MQG is heading down much quicker then earlier



Yeah, there is some very long term support around $20, but it's going no where but down until there's at least a couple of higher lows and highs.


----------



## Mofra

djdutts said:


> I would suggest getting in now when it's SO low, forgetting about it for three years and then thanking me



Low = value isn't something which makes any sense in a reasonably efficient market, even when considering individual stock prices.

You could make the same call on SGW, ION, HIH, NLX etc. They got fairly low and stayed there...


----------



## Nick Radge

I think $75 was once considered "low".....doh. Today was the lowest close since October 2002. That's not quite indicative of an up trend. 



> You could make the same call on SGW, ION, HIH, NLX etc. They got fairly low and stayed there...




Same with ABS, BNB, HIH, ONE, etc etc...


----------



## Julia

djdutts said:


> Agreed - but the fall from grace is not forever.






djdutts said:


> Swings and roundabouts, ups and downs. At the mo, we're on a massive down - we're nearly at the bottom of the hill (if not already), so getting on MQG at this price is a good idea IMO. You could wait until it goes to $19, but who's to say it will and what would you make in dollar value from doing so?
> 
> I would suggest getting in now when it's SO low, forgetting about it for three years and then thanking me






Julia said:


> Exactly so.  DJ dutts:  you may have missed my earlier post asking for the reasons why you're so sure the market will rebound second half of this year?
> 
> Interested to know the basis for such certainty.
> With thanks.




Hello DJ dutts:  still patiently waiting for some background to your assured predictions above.
Thank you.


----------



## JTLP

Julia said:


> Hello DJ dutts:  still patiently waiting for some background to your assured predictions above.
> Thank you.




LOL Julia!

I think you will have more luck finding a Sabre Tooth Tiger...DjDutts has a very roundabout way of saying he has no formal analysis...other than hocus pocus!

Anyway...has any ONE or any analyst ever uncovered/unravekled MQG's mystery accounts/half yearly's etc? What is there cash flow looking like?

Will this be another case of the parent going under and the Satellites left bled dry and barely standing?


----------



## BBand

Just checked MQG chart - interesting!

As a swing trade, I would take MQG long to-morrow IF it breaks above the high of the last bar (20.6)

Just looking at price and volume, the prospect of a rally look pretty slim, although there is a little bit of buying pressure to-day.

BUT according to my favourite indicator the price is at an indicator support level which previously held on 3rd June, 27th Aug, 18th Sept, 17th Nov and 23rd Jan and was not breached within this time period

 None of these trades would have resulted in a loss

*That does not mean that the support line will not be breached this time* but the probability is --------

I've only just started trading this strategy, been playing around with it for months


----------



## nomore4s

JTLP said:


> LOL Julia!
> 
> I think you will have more luck finding a Sabre Tooth Tiger...DjDutts has a very roundabout way of saying he has no formal analysis...other than hocus pocus!




On what DjDutts has presented so far hocus pocus would be a step up.:



BBand said:


> Just checked MQG chart - interesting!
> 
> As a swing trade, I would take MQG long to-morrow IF it breaks above the high of the last bar (20.6)
> 
> Just looking at price and volume, the prospect of a rally look pretty slim, although there is a little bit of buying pressure to-day.
> 
> BUT according to my favourite indicator the price is at an indicator support level which previously held on 3rd June, 27th Aug, 18th Sept, 17th Nov and 23rd Jan and was not breached within this time period
> 
> None of these trades would have resulted in a loss
> 
> *That does not mean that the support line will not be breached this time* but the probability is --------
> 
> I've only just started trading this strategy, been playing around with it for months




Interesting, one of the methods I use also indicates a move away from todays low could signal a move back toward $22-23 but then most probably down towards $15-$17. It's not a set up I will trade in this environment though.


----------



## enigmatic

Seems to have broken through $20 quite easily and nearly closed at $19, still think this one has only one way to head and thats down this was supported by my chart, until i see some movement sideways i wouldnt be getting to confident about MQG.

Have put it on my watchlist though.


----------



## Mofra

JTLP said:


> Anyway...has any ONE or any analyst ever uncovered/unravekled MQG's mystery accounts/half yearly's etc? What is there cash flow looking like?
> 
> Will this be another case of the parent going under and the Satellites left bled dry and barely standing?



I'd go the other way - Mac will continue to screw the satellite funds to keep the parent co. going. They do have a knack for raising capital at the right time (ie Aug 07 was a masterstroke) but that will be difficult in the current climate too. 

As a company that relies heavily on increasing valuations of infrastructure assets (that they value themselves) to bleed off management fees, and M&A activity (grinding to a halt outside of materials market consolidation) it seems like the MQG shareprice may actually lag any economic recovery rather than precede it, and to my eyes it looks like the market is discounting Mac accordingly.


----------



## Largesse

Macbank will want to pick up pretty hard in the next hour and a bit, 3 consecutive lower lows under $20 round figure support is looking vvvvv ugly.

I'm stopped out at 19.10, prob look to pick her up again at $15 IF it gets there. (thats just a guess)


----------



## Pager

The way its tanking you gotta ask the question, is this going the same way as Allco or Babcock and Brown ?.

looking more and more a basket case everyday.


----------



## Aussiest

I wouldn't be going anywhere near Macbank right now. Glad i cleared out my stash at a massive loss as this would have been worse .


----------



## nomore4s

Wow, MQG taking it in the bum again today down to under $17.50.

djdutts $20 isn't looking so cheap now

Edit: down to $17.25 now
Edit 2: Under $17 now


----------



## waz

I've got a feeling they will get an ASX querry today.
Down more than 8% and below $17

I cant find any newspaper reports about MQG today. And the rest of the banks are holding up well.

Are any of its funds reporting today??


----------



## Aussiest

This isn't a *sinking *ship, this is a *stinking *ship, lol...................................................


----------



## nomore4s

Since closing at $23.40 on the 17.02.09, MQG has lost over 25% in the 7 trading days since, surely we will see a speeding ticket.

Makes you wonder what the reason behind the fall is as well.


----------



## waz

So it looks like the low point from today was $16.25. The last time it was there was the first quarter of '99. Making a 10 year low.

Still cant see any news for it to fall today. Just fear about nothing.


----------



## waz

As expected, they got a querry:

Macquarie Group comments on market speculation
SYDNEY, 26 Feb 2009 – Macquarie Group Limited has been made aware of market speculation
about a potential capital raising. In response, Macquarie advises:
• Macquarie’s regulatory capital position remains strong, with $A2.9 billion of capital in excess of
the Group’s minimum capital requirements at 31 December 2008.
• There are no current plans for a capital raising.
Other than the comments above regarding market speculation, Macquarie is not aware of any other
explanation for the price change in the securities of the company today.


Now to find the article or person who started this. Id love to hear their reasoning for a raising. It would be so much easier to just cut the dividend.


----------



## GumbyLearner

I was touted by one of their PR staff in Asia, to buy back when they were trading at around $85.

Didnt listen to him though!


----------



## vincent191

This stock has been analysed to death and still there is no definate answer. Just a lot lot of maybes.  Guess, I will just have to hold and see what the future brings.

If you told me six months ago that MQG will drop to $17.  I will try to get you admitted to the loony bin but now I think I better book a space for myself. 

This stock is a prime example of the fallacy "this share use to trade at $100, now it is trading at $20, therefore it is a good buy."  The other prime example is Pacific Brands. 

Stocks drop to a fraction of their previous high for a damn good reason. Buying a stock for no other reason except that it's price had dropped hell of a lot is a quick way to the poor house.  IMO.


----------



## GumbyLearner

vincent191 said:


> If you told me six months ago that MQG will drop to $17.  I will try to get you admitted to the loony bin but now I think I better book a space for myself.




ROFLMAO

Hey Vinnie

You should also book a slot for the nutter spruiker at Macquarie who recommended I destroy my portfolio because with his adamant "billionaires" oops I mean "millionaires" factory pronouncement. "They really know what they are doing" were his words. Clown!


----------



## waz

Nice article by Tony Boyd:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Macqurie-$pd20090226-PM56P?OpenDocument&src=sph

From what I can see, todays panic was caused by a word of mouth rumor, and people started selling to get on the wave.

Tony makes a very good point: 
'There is still a perception in some circles that the debt on the balance sheet of Macquarie satellites is in some way guaranteed or tied to the Macquarie Group. In fact, the debts are non-recourse to Macquarie.

There is a case for Macquarie Group chief executive Nicholas Moore to provide a clearer explanation to the market of the relationship between the licensed banking operation and the satellite funds.'

I have been trying to work this out for years myself. I don't think Moore even has an explanation. Even if he did have an explanation, these days *any* news about an investment bank would be considered negative. Its only effect would be to lower the share price. He might be better off keeping quiet and keep MQG out of the news for a few months.


----------



## vincent191

MQG also has shareholdings in all it's sateliites. If the Satellite goes bust shareholders will usually lose the whole lot.

IMO that is what is worrying some people. MQG may have to write down the value of their shareholdings in their satellites.

It is a very complex structure and my opinion is just a very very simplistic view. My only consolidation is "well, you win some and you lose some."


----------



## Pager

Based on the fact many brokers/analysts/tipsters have had this as a buy or in more than few cases a strong buy all the way from about $75 says to me its a buy when they start going negative on the stock and say its a sell 

Even with today's please explain and response its still down over 5%.


----------



## prawn_86

You still out there DJ Dutts? How much iof a hit has your 700k portfolio taken on this so far...?  And where is the bounce that WILL happen?

Seriously though it highlights the importance of doing your own research, and the old adage of 'if you dont fully understand something, dont invest in it'


----------



## shaunQ

I think one of the main reasons the stock went down is that I happened to buy it on Tuesday at $19.12. This tends to happen when I buy a stock - so sorry guys.


----------



## dmagnus

The stock just gets targeted because they have very poor relations with the media...

Its not an american bank...

When all these shares that are priced to fail dont.. its going to be a bonanza for some and regret for others.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Your question is moot Julia.
> 
> One would be brave to be long MQG.
> 
> Their model has led us in to this debacle, debt, funny figures, on-selling of debt as capital.
> 
> I'm not a funnymentalist, so will leave the figures to my betters.
> 
> The chart says it all.
> 
> This is a dog, headed for less than $10 , I do not hold thank god
> 
> 
> gg




DJ is missing, I knew a dj once called Ghon Missin, serious !!



Julia said:


> Hello DJ dutts:  still patiently waiting for some background to your assured predictions above.
> Thank you.





Many newbies and funnymentalists see a drop in price as a chance to buy in, its more hope than analysis.


JTLP said:


> LOL Julia!
> 
> I think you will have more luck finding a Sabre Tooth Tiger...DjDutts has a very roundabout way of saying he has no formal analysis...other than hocus pocus!
> 
> Anyway...has any ONE or any analyst ever uncovered/unravekled MQG's mystery accounts/half yearly's etc? What is there cash flow looking like?
> 
> Will this be another case of the parent going under and the Satellites left bled dry and barely standing?




Ah Macquarie, what gives you life, satellites, fees, capital gain, power. What happens when all four disappear?



Pager said:


> The way its tanking you gotta ask the question, is this going the same way as Allco or Babcock and Brown ?.
> 
> looking more and more a basket case everyday.




Many ASF posters have compared the business models of AFG and BNB to MQG. Nuff said.



prawn_86 said:


> You still out there DJ Dutts? How much iof a hit has your 700k portfolio taken on this so far...?  And where is the bounce that WILL happen?
> 
> Seriously though it highlights the importance of doing your own research, and the old adage of 'if you dont fully understand something, dont invest in it'




Wise thoughts, very very wise.

MQG continues its downward course.

It is a dog technically. A shame it can't be shorted.
I had started drawing trendlines and indicators on it but if you cannot see its inexorable downward path with increasing momentum, then you really need to be in another game. Lower highs and lower lows, an increasing acuity to the downtrend. even the pathetic volume is picking up. The "smart operators " are departing.

Forget any previous projections I have given.

This is all bad, very , very , very bad, technically.

gg


----------



## Macquack

dmagnus said:


> The stock just gets targeted because they have very poor relations with the media...




Why dont Macquarie Group (MQG) get Macquarie Media Group (MMG) to help them out in that department.

Probably because MMG over-charge, MQG over-charge MMG for management fees and so MMG refuse to give MQG a discount.

You cant charge yourself to do up your own shoe laces.


----------



## ned_beaty

IMO this is a very bad company to have anything to do with, as bad or worse than City or Bear or Goldman. I just hope KRudd won't bail them out and they go to 0. That is what these debt whoring dogs deserve, 30 x leverage is nothing they can't conque..... Maybe....... Or is it just what they would have you believe!!!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

ned_beaty said:


> IMO this is a very bad company to have anything to do with, as bad or worse than City or Bear or Goldman. I just hope KRudd won't bail them out and they go to 0. That is what these debt whoring dogs deserve, 30 x leverage is nothing they can't conque..... Maybe....... Or is it just what they would have you believe!!!





You have got it in one mate, although my contacts in Canberra state there is a "tolerance" of Macquarie at this time.

Buggered if I know what tolerance means, tolerance to risk, to loss, to super fund investments, to the "nation".:nunchux:

gg.


----------



## ned_beaty

Hey GG, if you can pass on from me to anyone in Canberra of influence that any attempt to bail out these clowns will result in my "tolerance" of the government will slip to all time lows. 

If there a tolerance index I'd be going short that's for sure. That sucka's going down!!!


----------



## bigdog

TheAge reports
http://business.theage.com.au/business/macquaries-financial-health-questioned-20090227-8jsm.html

Macquarie's financial health questioned
Chris Zappone
February 27, 2009 - 12:28PM

Shares in Macquarie Group continue to fall amid concerns about the investment bank's financial health, as analysts review their rating of the stock, one day after Macquarie told the market it had no need to raise capital to bolster its position.

Macquarie shares were down 40 cents, or 2.3%, at $17.09 in noon trade, after having dropped as low as $16.68 in the morning.

After hitting a high of $97.10 in May 2007, the company's stock has fallen 82% over the same period as the global financial crisis sapped the values of listed and unlisted assets central to its investment portfolio.

"We believe that there is a risk that Macquarie Group could approach or potentially breach its regulatory minimum capital requirements if equity investment impairments are marked to current market levels or if further hard asset price deflation occurs,'' UBS banking analyst Jonathan Mott wrote in a report to clients.

Regulators demand banks and other deposit-taking institutions meet minimum capital requirements to ensure soundness and stability.

The stability of banks has come into focus with regulators and investors in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers' financial implosion last year, which accelerated the global financial crisis.

"We have been concerned for some time about the implications of the significant and prolonged bear market and asset price deflation on Macquarie Group's earnings capacity, equity investments and thus capital. Our concerns remain,'' Mr Mott wrote.

Macquarie responded by saying its "regulatory capital position remains strong", reiterating the statement it made to the market yesterday, flagging $2.9 billion of capital above the group's minimum capital requirement at the end of December.

"There are no current plans for a capital raising," the fully regulated group said. Macquarie is expected to post a full-year profit of about $900 million when it announces results on May 1.

UBS said it was reviewing the valuation, earnings and rating on the company.  

Currently it holds a neutral rating on the stock, with a price target of $27.80.

"We believe Macquarie Group needs to prove book value (that is, sell assets) or recapitalise," the report said.

The stockbroking and research house said Macquarie's excess over the regulatory minimum had dropped to $2.9 billion from $3.6 billion and that the capital required by regulators was "not the appropriate benchmark'' in any case.

The bank's $2.6 billion in listed investments are now $1.5 billion below book value, according to the report, distributed through Bell Potter Securities, of which UBS holds a stake.

"We believe the values of unlisted assets are also pressured,'' the report said.

"Given a significant and prolonged fall in values, we believe material impairment charges are required potentially eroding the circa $1.7 billion excess capital in the non-bank.''


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

ned_beaty said:


> Hey GG, if you can pass on from me to anyone in Canberra of influence that any attempt to bail out these clowns will result in my "tolerance" of the government will slip to all time lows.
> 
> If there a tolerance index I'd be going short that's for sure. That sucka's going down!!!




It sure is on the way down, it closed today at $16.98 , a number close to my first wife's heart as it contained her birthday. MQG to use the vernacular may go down from here. Technically it will I suspect continue to test significant numbers $16 $15 $13 $10. It will be a great trading feast when short selling resumes. Your local Y will provide the food. 

MQG lived by the sword and it will die by the sword.

gg


----------



## Macquack

Garpal Gumnut said:


> MQG lived by the sword and it will die by the sword.
> 
> gg




Too bad that prune Allan Moss is not around to fall on his own sword.

Moss is no dumby, he saw the imminent collapse coming and swapped his sword for a suntan.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Macquack said:


> Too bad that prune Allan Moss is not around to fall on his own sword.
> 
> Moss is no dumby, he saw the imminent collapse coming and swapped his sword for a suntan.




Yes I had thought of Mossie today, how many millions did he get?

feefifofumnotenoughclicksforapostisthisenough.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

reece55 said:


> Nick
> I certainly appreciate that you may be frustrated in trying to understand the MacBank model..... If you review this thread in it's entirety, you will note I have been as vocal against it when MQG was at $95 as when it is some 47.00 as it is now.......
> 
> The reason you don't understand why I am vocal against the model is because you actually don't understand it yourself. You think their funds are built on a stable foundation of fundamental value. It is true that their funds themselves contain assets that are crucial to life. However, what MQG have done is turn these assets into tradeable instruments, revalued them up using ridiculous valuation assumptions, extracted the life out of the cash flows by charging high management fees, distributing excessive dividends to shareholders  and have relied on capital recycling to fund operating cash flow.....
> 
> Have a look through just about any MQG satellite fund except for the property trusts, particularly MAP and MIG, and you will see one central theme - in order to fund Australia's lust for yield, MQG have done the equivalent of a reverse mortgage on a house. The simple answer is that this is because the operating cash flows aren't even sufficient to fund the yield (note you will have to have a look through approach at times to determine this, because MQG hide this by holding less than a 50% interest in many of the assets). So what MQG has done is revalue the asset, take out more debt, pay themselves a fee for the process as well extract a management fee and then deposit the difference to the investors.
> 
> Now look at the environment we are in - do you think this model will succeed or fail? Do you think the value of these capital investments, whilst essential, should be going up or down in light of recent market movements?
> 
> At the present stage, I have no vested interest in seeing MQG go down - but that won't stop me from telling people that I think this business is a load of crap........
> 
> At the end of it all, I do wish you all the best with your investments, especially in these volatile times.... And perhaps, if anything, I have made you question the model the MQG market team is presenting you with so that you might come up with informed decision for yourself. Because at the moment, every broker in town is still saying "Wow, MacBanks never been this cheap, top rated buy"............. This baby has consumed a lot of super fund $$'s lately...........
> 
> Cheers




I have printed and laminated reece55's post from last year, to give me strength each time I've avoided buying MQG because it "appears good value". This thread is pure gold on MQG and may appear in future Uni courses in finance and how "not to do it".

gg


----------



## nulla nulla

While people may challenge the structure, fees, sallaries, bonuses and make comparisons with BNB, it is still good for a trade on the daily movement.


----------



## shaunQ

nulla nulla said:


> While people may challenge the structure, fees, sallaries, bonuses and make comparisons with BNB, it is still good for a trade on the daily movement.




Exactly. Yeah its a dog if you want to hold for the long term, but if your looking for movements its a gem. It can go up just as fast it comes down. Sure, it won't stay there, or maybe form a lower-high but it historically rebounds fairly well.

That said, the rights issue might keep it down. I was hoping for a jump up to $23 odd, but now think it might stall at $20, but then again maybe $15 or $12. 

(note) Not spruiking figures here - just highs based off previous support/resistance and do currently hold ridiculously small parcel


----------



## Macquack

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Yes I had thought of Mossie today, how many millions did he get?
> 
> feefifofumnotenoughclicksforapostisthisenough.
> 
> gg




Captain Allan E Moss pay packet

2002 - $4.8 million (working for peanuts back then)
2003 - $5.9 million
2004 - $12.7 million
2005 - $18.6 million (getting better)
2006 - $21.2 million
2007 - $33.5 million (topped the money list that year and voted MVP)
2008 - $24.8 million (what's going on here, a pay cut?)

Final payout - take a guess between $25 million and $50 million. 

I would say Moss cleaned out Macquarie's cash registers to the tune of about $200 million. 

Not bad money for an employee who put up no money and took no personal risk.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Macquack said:


> Captain Allan E Moss pay packet
> 
> 2002 - $4.8 million (working for peanuts back then)
> 2003 - $5.9 million
> 2004 - $12.7 million
> 2005 - $18.6 million (getting better)
> 2006 - $21.2 million
> 2007 - $33.5 million (topped the money list that year and voted MVP)
> 2008 - $24.8 million (what's going on here, a pay cut?)
> 
> Final payout - take a guess between $25 million and $50 million.
> 
> I would say Moss cleaned out Macquarie's cash registers to the tune of about $200 million.
> 
> Not bad money for an employee who put up no money and took no personal risk.




jayzoo.

feefifofumjusttomakeuptheclickstopostonthishreadonewordsaysitallanditsbloodycriminalthatablokelikehimcanmakesomuchdough

gg


----------



## shaunQ

Macquack said:


> 2002 - $4.8 million (working for peanuts back then)
> 2003 - $5.9 million
> 2004 - $12.7 million
> 2005 - $18.6 million (getting better)
> 2006 - $21.2 million
> 2007 - $33.5 million (topped the money list that year and voted MVP)
> 2008 - $24.8 million (what's going on here, a pay cut?)




Well to be fair, inflation was pretty high back then 

........................................


----------



## Mofra

Macquack said:


> 2008 - $24.8 million (what's going on here, a pay cut?)



Part year I believe, as Macquarie's financial year runs from 1 April (no I'm serious) to 31st March.

He's actually a pretty friendly bloke, and holds almost no interest in Macquarie due to some large sell-offs last year.

You wouldn't have the figures for the rest of the execs (the top 11-12 anyway)? From memory in 07 Bill Moss (Alan's brother, the fat Moss) took home $31m himself.


----------



## M34N

MQG looking very sick, it was only a week ago that it hit $20 and now a low of $15.58 today, that's over 20% in the last week of trading alone and no sign of stopping. Volume on the down days are only getting higher and it looks to be heading to that $10 range sooner rather than later. Technically here it is oversold but in this market, risk aversion is so high that anything can happen so I wouldn't touch this one no matter what. Needs to start forming a base quick otherwise at this pace, by the end of the month it could hit $10.

Good luck to any holders, I think you guys may have to consider averaging down at around the $10 level if you're going to hold for the long term.  DYOR only my opinion!


----------



## nizar

M34N said:


> MQG looking very sick, it was only a week ago that it hit $20 and now a low of $15.58 today, that's over 20% in the last week of trading alone and no sign of stopping. Volume on the down days are only getting higher and it looks to be heading to that $10 range sooner rather than later. Technically here it is oversold but in this market, risk aversion is so high that anything can happen so I wouldn't touch this one no matter what. Needs to start forming a base quick otherwise at this pace, by the end of the month it could hit $10.
> 
> Good luck to any holders, I think you guys may have to consider averaging down at around the $10 level if you're going to hold for the long term.  DYOR only my opinion!




Maybe partly due to the bad press its been getting.... ??

http://business.theage.com.au/business/banks-rorting-shorting-ban-20090302-8lov.html


----------



## vincent191

What will happen when the ban on short selling get lifted on the 6th March? 

Many pundits predict that the SP will go into freefall. Maybe this is one reason for the recent drop.

Also their CEO has not responded to in any length to reassure investors. MQG just issued a very brief statement on Friday.

One can only guess what will happen should the ban be lifted?


----------



## nomore4s

vincent191 said:


> What will happen when the ban on short selling get lifted on the 6th March?
> 
> Many pundits predict that the SP will go into freefall. Maybe this is one reason for the recent drop.
> 
> Also their CEO has not responded to in any length to reassure investors. MQG just issued a very brief statement on Friday.
> 
> One can only guess what will happen should the ban be lifted?




rotflmao

What it's not already in freefall? My guess is the ban being lifted will have little or no effect on the sp, the only people who would be looking to short now would be retail investors imo, after we see a rally that might change though.


----------



## Largesse

if they believe their own story they won't issue a reassuring statement.
why would you? it'd be sale of the century for insiders. investors dumping on fear. nom nom nom nom nom.

conversely, a reassuring statement could be in direct conflict with the actual situation behind closed doors and expose them to litigation. Perhaps it's better to say nothing at all....

on momentum alone, it's going lower then Flo'Rida


----------



## waz

I agree with nomore4s, you have already missed your opportunity to short sell MQG. 

Use a bit of reverse reverse reverse psycology. People are already predicting that this will be short sold. So what do you do, place a buy order and get it on the cheap. Chances are the volume of shares to be bought will outweigh those being sold.

Just as an FYI, currently the lowest bid price is $9.80, and the highest ask is $50.00. With a few big buys around the $14 to $14.15 mark.
I have a feeling a few big fund managers are claiming their first in first served spot on the ladder already.


----------



## bigdog

*Sydney Morning Herald reported:*
http://business.smh.com.au/business/...l.html?page=-1
Battered 'n' bruised
February 28, 2009

*refer prior posting for the start of this great SMH article*

Chicago Skyway's debt service coverage ratio was a more encouraging 2.1 times. However, a look at its 2007 full-year accounts, the latest available, shows the asset had total long-term debt of $US1.55 billion.

It reported revenues from its toll roads of $US53 million for the year, operating income of $US18 million, while its interest expense was $US95 million.

MIG argues that the US roads make up just 11 per cent of its portfolio by valuation. And it is important when looking at a single asset to keep it in perspective in terms of the size of the fund and the overall group.

"A number of these roads either have already, or will shortly, introduce scheduled toll increases which will see continued revenue grow and the debt service coverage position improve," an MIG spokeswoman said.

Andrew Chambers, from Austock Broking, is less optimistic. But he says the US roads are a small part of MIG's business. "The US assets are clearly struggling and the outlook is not good but you don't own MIG for the US roads, you own it for its toll roads in Canada and France, which are very good assets."

In the past, sceptics of the "Macquarie Model" said higher interest rates would bring it undone. But the group argued that interest rates typically rose in line with inflation and higher inflation would mean increased tolls on its roads, airport charges and parking fees. As such, the higher revenue would be a natural hedge against rate increases.

But the current situation is different.

Debt is more expensive not because of interest rates, which are falling, but because people are placing a higher value on risk. So the margin that lenders are charging on top of the cash rate, to make it worthwhile for them to take on the risk, has increased.

At the same time, the slump in economic growth means it is harder for Macquarie to raise tolls, water rates and airport charges to offset the increased cost of its debt.

MIG's Johnson says there are no "life-threatening problems" in the funds or at group level. "Macquarie's balance sheet is very, very sound," he says.

"The question mark is over the earnings trend for the next two or three years, but I think they are very well placed to benefit from the recovery."

Macquarie plays down the significance of the specialist funds business. But it still accounted for 20 per cent of Macquarie's income in the year to March 31, 2008, and just over a quarter of total advisory fee income came from work on the funds, according to its results presentation. Some analysts claim that number might be higher, depending on what you include.

The corporate governance group RiskMetrics calculated that in the three years to 2006, Macquarie's three biggest Australian-listed infrastructure funds - Macquarie Airports, Macquarie Communications Infrastructure Group and Macquarie Infrastructure Group - handed over more than $1.15 billion in fees to the group.

So there will clearly be earnings pressure as those fees drop and in some cases disappear. Despite these concerns, no one is game enough to predict Macquarie's demise. And in fact some even expect the group will thrive in a market where almost every company in the world will go through a restructure.

They've done it before.

Two of the group's business-transforming transactions took place after times of crisis. Macquarie bought its fiercest local competitor, BT Australia, in 1999 after the Russian debt crisis. And in 2004, as Asia was recovering from its financial crisis, it picked up the ING cash equities business in the region.

"Investors will make a fortune out of the recovery and Macquarie is best positioned to do that," one former executive says.

"They have lots of capital, they're smart and they still have a very diverse business. They will ride this out."

While Macquarie's business will change dramatically, Perpetual's Sevior says the bank is unlikely to go the way of its imitators. "They have shown an ability to remake themselves in different cycles in the past but it will be a very difficult environment this time around."

Rob Patterson, the managing director of Argo Investments, a top 20 shareholder in Macquarie, says the group has "done exceptionally well relative to all of their peers in a very difficult environment".

He dismissed any comparisons with Babcock & Brown, noting that Macquarie was a more diversified business, with well-established stockbroking, funds management and private banking arms.

Macquarie's debt is also less concentrated and longer dated (Babcock was mainly relying on one single $3.1 billion debt facility.) And it is widely regarded to have better risk management processes in place.

"B&B is a one-dimensional fund manager and a very different organisation," says one former executive director. "It's like comparing a pushbike to a Rolls-Royce."

Another important distinction between the two is that Macquarie owns a bank.

That means its banking arm is regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and it has minimum capital requirements. It also means that the bank has access to funds that other investment houses never had because of the government guarantee scheme introduced in November.

Basically, the Government is handing out its AAA credit rating to Australian banks in return for a fee, allowing them to raise long-term money offshore. Macquarie has raised $12 billion since mid-December in Japan, the US, New Zealand and Australia.

"Macquarie has been one of the most active users of that scheme," said S&P's Jain, adding that the raisings had allayed some concerns the agency had about Macquarie, when it slapped a negative outlook on the group's rating last September.

Macquarie's retail deposits have also benefited from the government guarantee, rising to $18.1 billion at the end of last year, from $13.2 billion at the end of March.

Macquarie executives, including the chief executive, Nicholas Moore, declined to be interviewed.

In response to emailed questions, a spokeswoman for the group said it was "well-funded before the guarantee and has continued to improve its funding position".

She also denied speculation that the group was looking at selling its underperforming property business and talked up potential acquisition opportunities, noting Macquarie's recent acquisition of the US gas trading business Constellation Energy. On the infrastructure side, Macquarie sees more growth in unlisted funds and says governments are likely to turn to the private sector for infrastructure investment in the downturn.

If Macquarie wants to get retail investors interested in listed infrastructure funds again, they would have to be radically different to the funds of old, with reasonable fee structures and transparent corporate governance guidelines.

"It's a new era where investors are much more fee conscious and much more cost conscious," says Hugh Giddy, the managing director of the fund manager Cannae Capital Partners.

"There's a revulsion against greed. The social mood has changed. Investors are saying we need independent directors to say that Macquarie doesn't get to do all of the debt arranging and corporate advice.

"This is more than a cyclical change; it's a structural change in terms of their ability to run their model."


----------



## bigdog

*Sydney Morning Herald reported:*
http://business.smh.com.au/business/...l.html?page=-1

*Battered 'n' bruised*
February 28, 2009

While no one is game enough to predict Macquarie's demise, the global economic downturn is forcing the group to rethink its famed business model, writes Lisa Murray.

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels basked in the applause as he entered a room full of state officials and reporters to officially announce the close of the state's $US3.8 billion toll road privatisation.

It was June 29, 2006, and Daniels had received the final payment from Macquarie Infrastructure Group and its Spanish partner, Cintra, which had taken over a 75-year lease on the Indiana Toll Road, the so-called "Main street of the Midwest".

Daniels was confident the deal would turn around the state's financial fortunes and he had big plans for the proceeds.

But he was not the only one celebrating.

In Sydney, Macquarie Group executives were riding high. Not only did its investment bankers just rake in $US32.6 million in fees but the group had also officially cracked the elusive US infrastructure market. The Indiana transaction followed deals to buy Virginia's Dulles Greenway and the Chicago Skyway, which was the first US road privatisation.

Together, the three infrastructure plays had netted Macquarie $US74.7 million in advisory and debt arrangement fees and had substantially boosted the assets under management of its biggest fund, MIG. That meant higher management and performance fees for Macquarie.

The stage was set for more deals to come. Despite a public backlash against selling off state assets, Daniels's counterparts, from New York to Alaska, were lining up to flog their roads and bridges to the highest bidder. What had started with a small motorway in north-western Sydney was working its way across the world's biggest economy. The "Macquarie Model" had arrived in the US.

It's a well-told story. Macquarie became a global brand buying up toll roads, ports, airports, car parks and water companies around the world, at times paying over a billion dollars more than the next bidder. The assets were piled with debt, often up to 85 per cent of the purchase price, and then rolled into listed and unlisted funds, which paid Macquarie advisory, management and performance fees. Yes, the group still had its traditional trading, funds management and banking businesses but it was the specialist infrastructure funds which put it on the map and drove earnings growth to dizzying levels.

However, the world changed in September last year, with the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers, which ended any hopes that the subprime mortgage crisis would blow over.

Funding dried up, asset valuations started plummeting and debt became a dirty word, leaving the "Macquarie Model" all but dead and its management team scrambling to avoid disaster.

The US roads, a cause of so much celebration 2 ½ years ago, are struggling to repay their debts and Macquarie's share price, held hostage to a market awash with capital raising rumours, slumped this week to its lowest level since June 1999.

It is not just day traders and rumour mongers selling the stock; long-term investors, including its biggest US shareholder, Capital Group, have been abandoning ship. The shine has well and truly come off the silver doughnut.

"The strategy of buying an asset and gearing it up to generate returns - that game is clearly up," says Perpetual Investment's head of equities, John Sevior. Perpetual does not own any shares in Macquarie or its satellite funds. "It's an opaque business and it's very hard to understand the level of gearing. The gearing in the group is above our level of tolerance."

Copycats Babcock & Brown and Allco have already disappeared under a mountain of debts. While Macquarie's balance sheet is strong - thanks to a government guarantee on wholesale funding for banks, which has allowed it to raise a whopping $12 billion in offshore markets in just over two months - its satellite funds are struggling. Macquarie's Australian-listed infrastructure funds have had more than $12 billion wiped off their market value since the start of last year. The local real estate funds have lost a further $5.6 billion.

Total losses for shareholders in the funds over the past 12 months range from 52 to 91 per cent, compared to a 37 per cent drop in the market's main index.

MIG's chairman, Mark Johnson, a former senior executive and deputy chairman of the group, says he "can't understand why prices have been marked down so savagely".

But he acknowledges the "Macquarie Model" will need to change. "Inevitably it must change quite radically because we are seeing the biggest crisis in credit markets since the 1930s," he told the Herald.

"Investors want certainty of survival. Anything that has high leverage is seen as risky and not what investors want. The flagship funds are under great pressure to adapt and to convince investors that their survival is assured and they are appropriate investments."

It was a bad news week for Macquarie. MIG announced that traffic had slumped on the Indiana Toll Road and Dulles Greenway in the US and they were using all available cash to pay back debt. It also wrote down its investment in the San Diego South Bay Expressway from $133 million to $11.6 million.

Macquarie Airports, meanwhile, was forced to dump a share buyback so that it could tip equity into Sydney Airport for the second time in three months to ease its debt burden and Macquarie's media fund, MMG, wrote down the value of its US community newspaper group, American Consolidated Media, by $127 million. Macquarie CountryWide and Macquarie Office Trust have sold US properties to pay down debts, MIG sold part of its stake in the M7 tollway to prove to the market how much it was worth and shore up its balance sheet and MMG slashed its dividend by more than three-quarters.

All of this means fewer fees for Macquarie and more write-downs on its stakes in the funds. The group has already announced an estimated $2 billion of total write-downs for the year to March 31 and it expects to report that profit has halved to $900 million. That is not a bad result given that almost no other investment bank in the world is in the black.

Even so, these debt issues hang over Macquarie as does the March 6 deadline for Australia's short-selling ban, which many believe kept the hedge fund managers at bay at a crucial time for the group. Those same hedge fund managers will no doubt be furiously running the numbers over Macquarie in the coming weeks, ready to pounce on any signs of weakness should the ban be lifted. Even with the ban in place, Macquarie was bruised and battered this week and forced to deny it had any plans for a capital raising. 

But the problem for Macquarie is that varying degrees of disclosure among its many funds make it difficult for the market to understand the businesses and their debt positions and how they relate to the group.

That allows rumours to run wild. No one really knows how much debt is held across the group, but some analysts estimate it is more than $160 billion.

Jim Chanos, the president of the US hedge fund Kynikos Associates - who became famous for his early warnings on Enron - has been a vocal critic of the Macquarie Model. He says the model gave the group incentive to overpay for assets because the shareholders in the funds picked up the tab while Macquarie's fees were based on the size of assets under management. The higher the price, the bigger the assets under management, the more lucrative the fees.

Macquarie funds and their co-investors paid over $1 billion more than the next bidder for both Sydney Airport and the Chicago Skyway. .

While assets in its funds are struggling with debt payments, there is no doubt Macquarie has always been very good at protecting the bank. Debt is held at the asset level. That means it is non-recourse to the funds, let alone to Macquarie, a clever strategy that essentially ring-fences any problems.

But it is not that simple. As one insider says, if an asset were to fail, while Macquarie may not be obligated to come to the rescue, the reputation risk would be "enormous". Taking action, on the other hand, could spook investors and affect its credit rating.

"At some stage, if a significant fund was in major strife, Macquarie might take the view that they need to protect the franchise," says Sharad Jain, a credit analyst at Standard & Poor's. "That would be a change in financial policy and we would need to consider that at the time as it is outside our expectations."

Macquarie says that will not need to happen as none of its funds is in "major strife". It has already managed $3 billion of refinancing since September. And in terms of its four main listed infrastructure funds, there is no outstanding refinancing for this year and only 12 per cent of debt needs to be refinanced over the next three years. But there are clearly some assets that are stretched.

MIG said at its results this week that the Indiana Toll Road had a debt service coverage ratio of just 1 times. That means that all of its operating income is being swallowed up by debt payments and is a concern given that traffic on the road, a mostly commercial toll road that runs 253 kilometres across northern Indiana, fell nearly 15 per cent in the last half. The ratio for Virginia's Dulles Greenway is 1.1 times.

*refer next posting for ending to this great SMH article*


----------



## M34N

Looks like there was someone dumping pretty heavily at 12.30 today, but came off those lows by about 2-3% to finish down _only_ 7%. Started to form a nice triangle after this small rebound, but notice that it never breached the descending trend line down so still remain very bearish on this one. Volume on the down days has been increasing, as I said in my post earlier in the day, and today was no exception with over 4m traded and one of the busiest days in a while. Hard to be positive on this one as it looks ominous and with the speculation around it prevailing, I don't see any reason to jump in yet. 

On my watchlist and will keep a close eye on it. Suspect a rebound similar to that of BSL today (where it was down sharply in the morning but reversed course to finish up) is overdue and will be interesting to see at what price this will happen at and where it ends up. Still a no-go and way too high risk for me.


----------



## nomore4s

Yeah I had a signal to go long this morning but for some reason my broker wouldn't process the trade. The price was $15.60 at the time


----------



## glads262

Consider this:

The market is driving the price for MQG down because they think they will need to raise capital.
MQG have an approx 3.4billion in surplus capital.
If MQG write down MIG & MAP to current value, remove 1.4billion. (leaving 2 billion in capital in excess of minimum)

Lets say in the next 12 months they write down another 1 billion (consistant with the last 12 months)

OMG!!! only 1billion excess capital - capital raising!!

BUT, In the last 12 months, MQG wrote off 1billion, and still made a profit of $900million. 

Assuming this, MQG would now still  have 2billion surplus capital.

Lets say its worse, next year they write off 2billion!!!!!!

Still have 1 billion surplus capital.

IF THEY CANCEL THEIR DIVIDEND, that could be 2billion surplus capital.

I think that MQG would rather cancel or substantially reduce their dividend than do a capital raising at $16 bucks a share.

My guess would be that MQG will reduce dividend substantially, WILL NOT write down value of MIG or MAP (let this sort itself out over the next 12 months - buybacks/selling assets to prove value)

I think that anyone that shorts(when available on March 6), will possibly make money in the short term, but MQG will find a way to kill them off. 

Don't forget, MQG employees own stacks of shares. MOST of them are also fairly well off from the past 5 years or so. I reckon if shorters make a move, MQG employee's may fire up and buyup stock in preparation for taking the business private again.

Any thoughts out there to disprove the above arguement??


----------



## basilio

> That allows rumours to run wild. No one really knows *how much debt is held *across the group, but* some analysts estimate it is more than $160 billion*.
> 
> Jim Chanos, the president of the US hedge fund Kynikos Associates - who became famous for his early warnings on Enron - has been a vocal critic of the Macquarie Model. He says the model gave the group incentive to overpay for assets because the shareholders in the funds picked up the tab while Macquarie's fees were based on the size of assets under management. The higher the price, the bigger the assets under management, the more lucrative the fees.
> 
> *Macquarie funds and their co-investors paid over $1 billion more than the next bidder for both Sydney Airport and the Chicago Skyway*.




Glads I think  your argument has been seriously damaged in the above post. Real simple. Macquarie over paid for almost all of their assets even in the good times. Not by a little but apparently a hell of a lot. If they have borrowed $160 billion then barely a 10% reduction in valuation will wipe them out.

And of course their fees are all disappearing as  the value of the satellites  diminishes. 

I suggest this is just an upmarket B&B scheme which is just going to take a little longer to unwind.  The tricky part will be to somehow extract/save the  deposit side of the Macquarie bank. This is government (taxpayer ) guaranteed. We will get it in the neck again.

I suggest that all financial institutions will be at risk in the fallout of the GFC. Macquarie is just way ahead on risk


----------



## glads262

Thanks Bas, but even if total debt is $160billion, how much of that is recourse to MQG? 
MQG owns shares in its funds, and doesn't lend them money. 
I certainly agree that their income from these funds management will drop, but this is not a huge portion of overall income for MQG (circa 10% I believe)

MQG's own debt that it needs to worry about is within covenants.

Only risks to satellites falling over is Reputational, FUM based revenue loss, and value loss of shareholdings.

I reckon a lot of people are banking on these satellite funds going bust. Based on recent sales of assets, I would disagree.


----------



## gooner

basilio said:


> I suggest that all financial institutions will be at risk in the fallout of the GFC. Macquarie is just way ahead on risk




Not sure why you think MQG is ahead on risk - no CDO exposure (like Americans and Europeans) no dodgy CDS deal (ANZ). And compared to the majors they take very little credit risk - MQG's loan book is a very small part of the business and in general it is credit risk that takes banks down (particularly concentration risk).

MQG, like all banks, makes mistakes and loses money sometimes but IMHO MQG is a well run bank with plenty of capital and liquidity and the share price should be well north of where it is.


----------



## waz

Even if fees from its satelite funds disapear, it only makes a small proportion of its income. 

Yes in the past it made maybe up to half (which gave us nice 1.8bil profits in the past) but to loose a few mil in fees is no big loss. From what I remember when they made their profit forcast of 900mil. This already included the loss in fee revenue. They way I see it, it is only loosing revenue, that does not have to mean that it makes a loss. If revenue from the satelite funds falls to zero, so to do the costs (asuming non-recourse). Therefor 0 - 0 = 0 
That business model is discarded and buried.

The big four would loose more in fees if ATM fees were scrapped, or if monthy fees were scrapped, or if EFTPOS fees were scrapped.

For some reason I get the feeling that those who think Macquare is doomed think that it only has one business model. 
It is a *'group'* of multiple business of *multiple models*. Only one of those models is screwed. The rest are doing ok and some are even doing better than previous years.


----------



## basilio

On reflection I can see that I overstated my case against Macquarie in my earlier post. While the evidence stands that they did overpay for their assets and that the" borrow more money to make more payments" model can't work they do seem to have protected themselves.

The intention to keep satellite debt with the satellites and the government guaranteed banking license are important. But are they sufficient to keep up confidence in the bank?  That's the question. If in the end there is sufficient money to drive down the share price and reduce Government and investor confidence in the bank the game is over. A bank run will destroy the good and the bad indiscriminately. My observation is that the main features that are apparent to observers and driving their actions is the overpriced assets and belief that the resulting profits will simply disappear. In that context IMO Macquarie is at risk.


----------



## nick2fish

True enough, but luckily for holders the capital and large funds capable of perpetrating such deeds are all but gone, drowned in their own mire, IMO


----------



## Sean K

Who recommended buy at $20, wont go lower?

Thanks.

Must be an advisor at Mcaquarie. 

Cheers.


----------



## bigdog

kennas said:


> Who recommended buy at $20, wont go lower?
> 
> Thanks.
> 
> Must be an advisor at Mcaquarie.
> 
> Cheers.




Kennas, who recommended a buy at $20?

I could not find anyone that who recommended to buy at $20 in the MQG link!!!!!


----------



## Julia

Bigdog, here is 'advice'  from DJDutts a few days ago:
DJ Dutts seems to have subsequently disappeared from the thread.



djdutts said:


> Swings and roundabouts, ups and downs. At the mo, we're on a massive down - we're nearly at the bottom of the hill (if not already), so getting on MQG at this price is a good idea IMO. You could wait until it goes to $19, but who's to say it will and what would you make in dollar value from doing so?
> 
> I would suggest getting in now when it's SO low, forgetting about it for three years and then thanking me






Julia said:


> Hello DJ dutts:  still patiently waiting for some background to your assured predictions above.
> Thank you.






bigdog said:


> Kennas, who recommended a buy at $20?
> 
> I could not find anyone that who recommended to buy at $20 in the MQG link!!!!!


----------



## waz

DJ Dutts seems to be taking quite a bagging.
Although he never actually said it wouldn't fall below $20.
I also can't find anyone making any recomendations on entry points for a buy.
Nor exit points for a sell.

I didn't know we made recomendations on this site.

Assuming MQG does not fail, it is very likely to be higher than what it is now in 3 years time (inc. dividends). Dj Dutts may be waiting to reappear to copy and paste Kennas post and say I told you so.

We patiently await Feb 2012.


----------



## nomore4s

waz said:


> DJ Dutts seems to be taking quite a bagging.
> Although he never actually said it wouldn't fall below $20.
> I also can't find anyone making any recomendations on entry points for a buy.
> Nor exit points for a sell.
> 
> I didn't know we made recomendations on this site.
> *
> Assuming MQG does not fail*, it is very likely to be higher than what it is now in 3 years time (inc. dividends). Dj Dutts may be waiting to reappear to copy and paste Kennas post and say I told you so.
> 
> We patiently await Feb 2012.




I think a few of DJs posts were removed.

The bold bit is the catch isn't. I'm not saying it will but the market is pricing in risk more than it did 24 months ago.

I personally don't think MQG will fall over but I'm unsure about MQG ability to produce the same profits in this environment and manage it's risks at the same time.

People weren't saying MQG won't be a good long term investment just that there was no rush to buy in at $20, as there was a good chance we would see lower prices (see below posts) - and what do ya know, we've seen lower prices.

DJ saying I told you so in 3 years time will only be any good provided Kennas hasn't brought in at a lower price, then Kennas could say I told you so to DJ:



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Your question is moot Julia.
> 
> One would be brave to be long MQG.
> 
> Their model has led us in to this debacle, debt, funny figures, on-selling of debt as capital.
> 
> I'm not a funnymentalist, so will leave the figures to my betters.
> 
> The chart says it all.
> 
> This is a dog, headed for less than $10 , I do not hold thank god
> 
> 
> gg






nomore4s said:


> I agree GG. My target atm in $12-$15 but in this market it could very well overshoot that.
> 
> MQG is actually very weak compared to the general market atm and is the weakest bank atm.. While the XAO has been consolidating MQG has been heading down, if the XAO breaks down it could get real ugly for MQG.
> 
> On the attached chart you the lines on the left are the thrusts down and as you can see there is no slowing at all. There is no signs of a turn around - no base - no positive volume. While we may see some sort of bounce it in the future it will be just that - a bounce imo.
> 
> If there is any major company in XAO that is at risk of creative accounting  (think Enron) it is MQG imo, their books were hardly transparent in the bullmarket so I doubt that will change in a solid bear market, I just can't see how thay can possibly generate the same profit in the current market




Nothing has happened to change this analysis. I now expect a bounce back towards $22-$23, which I tried to trade today but missed, will look for another entry though. ATM I think we will see $15 again and probably lower but will have to see how things play out in the general market as well.


----------



## M34N

Main test on MQG will be how it goes today after rallying 10% yesterday (as I suspected), most likely looking at falls of 3-4% today but that's just a guess. Still see no reason to buy in here at this price, will have to do some closer analysis on this one later tonight if I get some spare time. Off memory it broke a couple important support levels around $20 and $18, but did rebound nicely off $15 so this could be a base - for now. Expecting this one to test the lows of $15 again soon so no reason to rush in just yet.


----------



## Sean K

It was pretty clearly an implied buy at $20, but you _may_ even get it at $19. Yes, in 3 years time he might be able to say I told you so, so we'll just have to wait. But the pluck of $20 was nothing more than a pluck. No analysis of any kind, just a gut feel. No, you're not supposed to make recommendations here, and hopefully this is a good example of why not. 

After breaking key support at $20, looks like $15 was the next possible bounce off '98 highs, but still going down till higher highs and lows appear and this channel broken. Perhaps...


----------



## babka

There are a lot of spiteful contributors to this thread and also a lot of even more spiteful downrampers. I really feel sorry for your guys (could not be bothered to mention your aliases), that you have nothing better to do than to spread more and more poison about some companies, MQG included. Is it your envy, lack of success in your lives, bitter experiences, lack of self-esteem that makes you so pitiful? It seems to me that the anonymity gives you "courage" to 
raise your ugly heads. RIP and grow up a little bit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## nomore4s

babka said:


> There are a lot of spiteful contributors to this thread and also a lot of even more spiteful downrampers. I really feel sorry for your guys (could not be bothered to mention your aliases), that you have nothing better to do than to spread more and more poison about some companies, MQG included. Is it your envy, lack of success in your lives, bitter experiences, lack of self-esteem that makes you so pitiful? It seems to me that the anonymity gives you "courage" to
> raise your ugly heads. RIP and grow up a little bit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




WTF?

Relax babka, MQG is only a stock to be traded, no need to get all teary because some people have "downramped" it. Maybe you should have a close look at the chart and see why people are negative on this stock atm.
When it and the markets turn around we will all be ramping it for you

Talk about being attached to a stock.


----------



## waz

One very important lesson I have learnt from investing, is to not get emotionally attached to anything. That goes for companies, directors, CEO's, products, environmental damge they may be causing, sacking staff, offshoring, charitable deeds, etc.

Examples include, not investing in James Hardie as your great grandfather died from an asbestos related sickness.

Or not investing in Macquaire Bank because the CEO was the highest paid individual.

Or not investing in Telstra because the CEO is American

Or not investing in Macquaire Bank as you have been burned in the past by it.

Or not using a particular technique such as Elliot wave analysis as it gave you a wrong prediction in the past.

Or investing in a company that you worked in for 20 years and they gave you the best 20 year of your life.

In short, its just money, it shouldn't affect your emotions. Ofcourse this does not apply to everyone. Personally in the last 2 years, my biggest loss share has been MQG (Which I have bought as high as $78). However that does not mean that I hate the company or its board or its CEO or its public image, it has not affected my emotions.


----------



## Naked shorts

babka said:


> There are a lot of spiteful contributors to this thread and also a lot of even more spiteful downrampers. I really feel sorry for your guys (could not be bothered to mention your aliases), that you have nothing better to do than to spread more and more poison about some companies, MQG included. Is it your envy, lack of success in your lives, bitter experiences, lack of self-esteem that makes you so pitiful? It seems to me that the anonymity gives you "courage" to
> raise your ugly heads. RIP and grow up a little bit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Poor babka! did you get a margin call? If the company is VIABLE, then all the people who short the stock will loose floads of money. SIMPLE. 

No one will hold you hand when it comes to making money from the market. Go get some cement.


----------



## nick2fish

Babka may have overstated his point a touch, but I have noticed that this thread really attracts postings when the Mac bank Sp is on the plunge. Remember good people hindsight is of no use to us in this game.

Babka if we are ever lucky enough to see this investment climb, just see how quiet this thread will become


----------



## M34N

The close above $18 today was a positive one, and the next target is clearly $20, which will be a real test and will require some significant volume to push it there as it went down with a lot of volume too. The areas on my chart show the trending channel down up until Tuesday when the reversal up took place; it has clearly shown some support at these levels for now, and has held up reasonably.

Notice the higher volumes on the large down days (in the section surrounded by the yellow lines) and then the volume on the up days. Based on this I don't see it breaching past the $20 level without some major influence from the US markets going higher. Basically the biggest point here is the large up day on Tuesday had lower volume than the 3 days it was heading down previously, this is not seen as a good sign and why I personally remain bearish. I would like to see some solid volume before being more optimistic.

This feels more like a relief rally as none of the rumours have eventuated, so it will be interesting to see how high it can go now that no skeletons have been revealed. Hopefully there is a signal to buy in soon so I can profit out of it!


----------



## kingbrown

Gee this is a CRANKY forum !!
Sounds like a few of you deserved to get burnt ?

Get your money while you can guys 
Look at BNB 

I jumped ship on these guys on the highs along with bnb 

Plenty of better safer buys about imo 

the recession has only just begun !
and imo the glitzy debt deals are all but gone 

Cash is once again..... king !


----------



## nick2fish

Thanks for your enlightening insight, not only for MQG, but the entire market economic situation as well. 
You really are the King. 
Oh well don't let us hold you up I'm sure you are quiet busy counting all those gold coins, but at least I know who to see if I ever need trumpet lessons, Cheers


----------



## Naked shorts

nick2fish said:


> Thanks for your enlightening insight, not only for MQG, but the entire market economic situation as well.
> You really are the King.
> Oh well don't let us hold you up I'm sure you are quiet busy counting all those gold coins, but at least I know who to see if I ever need trumpet lessons, Cheers




He never said he was king, he said "(holding your capital) in cash is king".

What ever you do, and the sooner more people realize this the better, do *not* spite people who are making money in this market. They are the only ones who can get everyone out of this mess. Greed is the only way out. The banning of short selling has got to be the dumbest thing in human history. Instead of some people making money from the price fall (who are then able to go out and spend that money in the economy), no one makes money which makes the problem even worse.


----------



## cutz

Yeah but even with pure shorting banned on financials there has always been a way(s) to circumvent this via other means legally, so IMO the ban has been beneficial to shorters as there is no need to worry about covering rallies that can catch you out.


----------



## nomore4s

nick2fish said:


> Babka may have overstated his point a touch, but I have noticed that this thread really attracts postings when the Mac bank Sp is on the plunge. Remember good people hindsight is of no use to us in this game.
> 
> Babka if we are ever lucky enough to see this investment climb, just see how quiet this thread will become




Nick you've been on this forum long enough to know threads get more active when a price is falling or rising sharply.

As for hindsight, I'm not sure what more you want - there were posters saying there was a high probablity of $15.00 and below while the price was over $20.00.



nick2fish said:


> Thanks for your enlightening insight, not only for MQG, but the entire market economic situation as well.
> You really are the King.
> Oh well don't let us hold you up I'm sure you are quiet busy counting all those gold coins, but at least I know who to see if I ever need trumpet lessons, Cheers




Not sure what the point of this post is - a bit bitter are we? If you have lost money on this stock deal with it, most of us have lost money on our investments in the last 18 months. 

We are in a major bear market atm caused by an excessive credit bubble by stocks like MQG. The people bearish on this stock are bearish for a reason and the sp is proving those bearish sentiments correct atm. I will eventually be bullish on this stock but not yet.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I do like stocks that have been nearly $100 and are now approaching $15.

MQG is one of these.

It needs to trend sideways in a trading range before any sensible person would punt on it. 

I believe it has many superior people working for it earning large amounts of money for destroying investor wealth. 

I have posted on its business model previously, sell a product, provide the cash for the buyers, charge fees for the realisation of the entity, and take fees for its continuation. Perfick.

Now back to reality.

$15.75 seems to me technically to be a very important price for this little doggie.

It has recently been the price that the highest volume of punters have decided as fair value. It has gone down to $15 and now it is $16 plus. 

I will use this line as an important indication of future movement. 

If it trades consistently below this then $10 is not far away. If it moves sideways with increasing volume along this line then it may be in for a recovery.

gg


----------



## Naked shorts

Garpal Gumnut

Just because a stock has been $100, doesn't mean that they will instantly jump back up to $100 after this recession, it might take 15 years...


----------



## Macquack

*Macquarie ‘Satellite’ Fund Model Questioned on Losses *
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a5LXPyRZuBeU&refer=asia

March 11 (Bloomberg)
 Macquarie Group Ltd.’s 14 publicly traded funds have lost a combined A$3.9 billion of market value this year, fueling speculation Australia’s largest investment bank will write down assets and raise money. 

On Feb. 27, Macquarie said it had no need to raise funds after announcing earlier that month it had a A$2.9 billion “buffer” over minimum capital requirements as of Dec. 31. 

UBS AG analysts led by Jonathan Mott said Feb. 26 that the value of Macquarie’s equity stakes in satellite funds may be about A$1.5 billion below the firm’s own Sept. 30 valuation. 

Writing down the assets to reflect that gap could put Macquarie *at risk of breaching capital requirements*, forcing the company to raise money, the analysts said in a research note.


----------



## nikemi

Macquack said:


> *Macquarie ‘Satellite’ Fund Model Questioned on Losses *
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a5LXPyRZuBeU&refer=asia
> 
> March 11 (Bloomberg)
> Macquarie Group Ltd.’s 14 publicly traded funds have lost a combined A$3.9 billion of market value this year, fueling speculation Australia’s largest investment bank will write down assets and raise money.
> 
> On Feb. 27, Macquarie said it had no need to raise funds after announcing earlier that month it had a A$2.9 billion “buffer” over minimum capital requirements as of Dec. 31.
> 
> UBS AG analysts led by Jonathan Mott said Feb. 26 that the value of Macquarie’s equity stakes in satellite funds may be about A$1.5 billion below the firm’s own Sept. 30 valuation.
> 
> Writing down the assets to reflect that gap could put Macquarie *at risk of breaching capital requirements*, forcing the company to raise money, the analysts said in a research note.




This article relates to events two weeks ago and though i am not sure what has actually been update there it does not seem to conatain any new information?! or is there something i am missing???


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Naked shorts said:


> Garpal Gumnut
> 
> Just because a stock has been $100, doesn't mean that they will instantly jump back up to $100 after this recession, it might take 15 years...




Thanks Naked, but if you read my posts I would predict that MQB will go under a dollar.

I've been bearish on this Merchant Bank/Potofgoldforinsiders since it was $14 on the way up!

Its a dog

Technically its being pushed up to levels where insiders can sell out .

It is a very sick puppie.

A chart

A long term downtrend.

And a short term downtrend.

I won't depress holders with moving averages.

Note the low volumes.

A miracle will pick it up, bad news and theres lots of it about will increase volumes and if the price goes down its going to be very very ugly

gg


----------



## M34N

No-one posting in here today? Has been performing well lately, especially today, up above $20 comfortably today, lets watch how it closes and where. Looking positive and volume increasing slowly but EMA still looks like it's heading down. Like I said in my posts before, clearly tracking the US markets and that will set the tone for this stock, so as long as the Dow keeps heading up this one will too.

I wonder where the rise will stop and where the next support/resistance line is since $20 is broken? Anyone willing to place bets?

Still looking a bit shaky despite the slow rising uptrend, all it takes is one bad night on the Dow and you can lose 10% in the blink of an eye!


----------



## M34N

Well I was in on Monday just above $20 and out today at $23, happy to book that one in and feel this rally is a bit overdone and due for a few down days.

I noticed a lot of people have gone MIA on this one now that it has rebounded well above $20, no-one else believes it's worth commenting on? What a great one to trade this has been lately, well done to those who bought in and rode it up too.


----------



## skc

M34N said:


> Well I was in on Monday just above $20 and out today at $23, happy to book that one in and feel this rally is a bit overdone and due for a few down days.
> 
> I noticed a lot of people have gone MIA on this one now that it has rebounded well above $20, no-one else believes it's worth commenting on? What a great one to trade this has been lately, well done to those who bought in and rode it up too.




This sharp rally has been unbelievable - over 50% from low of $15 to high of $23.5. It has coincided with the strong gains in various satellite funds. 
It's coming up against its longer term down trend and resistance at Sep/Oct low of ~$25...so may run out of steam soon.

Well done on the trade. I would have shorted the stock at $20 and would have covered this morning given how strong the US was last night. Thank you ASIC for the short selling ban.


----------



## prawn_86

Well done to those that have traded this.

I would like to know what DJDutts thinks of the situation? Taking some off the table, or think it will continue higher?

I'll be interested to see if $20 holds as support again when it does pull back


----------



## M34N

skc said:


> This sharp rally has been unbelievable - over 50% from low of $15 to high of $23.5. It has coincided with the strong gains in various satellite funds.
> It's coming up against its longer term down trend and resistance at Sep/Oct low of ~$25...so may run out of steam soon.
> 
> Well done on the trade. I would have shorted the stock at $20 and would have covered this morning given how strong the US was last night. Thank you ASIC for the short selling ban.




Well that's why I got out quickly, figured the momentum was there to push it higher in this rally, which has been based on mostly financials rebounding and it wasn't difficult to pick that the stock that got punished the most would rebound the most (like I said in earlier/previous posts). Based the sell on it hitting the downtrend as seen in GG's post above, and wasn't interested in getting caught holding when I could book in a 14% profit for 3 days of holding. More than happy with that in this environment and you have to trade the sharp rallies if you plan on making any money now. 

Suspect this rally may be ending soon, or we may get another short sell-off and a bit higher again. Good luck to any holders, I suspect it will go down to around $20 here, and that will be what makes me decide to buy in again or not.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

skc said:


> This sharp rally has been unbelievable - over 50% from low of $15 to high of $23.5. It has coincided with the strong gains in various satellite funds.




Was just thinking the same

Unbelievable volatility, really feel for anyone who got stopped out of a margin or derivative position at $15

I should pay closer attention to the banks


----------



## gooner

I sold a third of my holding at the open this morning. I bought at $32 and then a lot at $20 then followed it down to $15, but held my faith. However, concerned shorters may hit it again, so decided to pull some money out in case it heads back down again


----------



## legs

IMHO it will be $30 before end of month...

US printing cash to prop things up.. its all good for this stock type.


----------



## stl_08

bought it at 17.89 so  I'm a happy boy, does anyone have any ideas about what's driving this stock? And who plus doing most of the buying?


----------



## dmagnus

who's doing the buying? that would be me =)

the haters are real quiet atm!

When other financials realise there's money to be made in a new market or a new venture, Macquarie has already been there for 3 years...

how could you not love these guys, despite their lack of media savvy


----------



## skyQuake

Macq is savvy enough to engineer its own squeeze..
Volatility breeds more volatility so I suppose its doing well.


----------



## nomore4s

legs said:


> IMHO it will be $30 before end of month...
> 
> US printing cash to prop things up.. its all good for this stock type.




Nice ramp



dmagnus said:


> the haters are real quiet atm!
> 
> how could you not love these guys, despite their lack of media savvy




It's not about loving or hating any stock. It's all about trading them for a profit. As the post below shows I tried to trade this bounce but missed, also missed an entry signal on the 6/03/09, if we now get a dip with good vol attributes I will look for an entry. Would have traded it at short at various stages if I could have as well.



nomore4s said:


> Nothing has happened to change this analysis. I now expect a bounce back towards $22-$23, which I tried to trade today but missed, will look for another entry though. ATM I think we will see $15 again and probably lower but will have to see how things play out in the general market as well.


----------



## nomore4s

gooner said:


> However, concerned shorters may hit it again, so decided to pull some money out in case it heads back down again




Pretty hard for the shorters to "hit" it again seeing as shorting of financial stocks is still banned.


----------



## Jikx

Which is a shame, because shorters would have absolutely destroyed this farce of a company. You have to wonder about the extreme volatility in Macquarie, it smells like no-one has any clue about what it is really worth. To me, that means it's worth nothing.

I'll make the prediction now - Macquarie Group will be the first company to make good the governments bank "guarantee". You heard it here first!


----------



## nomore4s

Jikx said:


> Which is a shame, because shorters would have absolutely destroyed this farce of a company. You have to wonder about the extreme volatility in Macquarie, it smells like no-one has any clue about what it is really worth. To me, that means it's worth nothing.
> 
> I'll make the prediction now - Macquarie Group will be the first company to make good the governments bank "guarantee". You heard it here first!




lol I hope not as one of my trading accounts is with them.

On the shorters - the decent would have been the same, shorters having an effect is a bit of a fallacy imo, since the ban financials have still been smashed. But could you imagine how strong this rally (in all the banks) would have been if all the shorters had to cover their shorts.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Great article that cuts through the crap

*Making a mint as inquiry founders *

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/analysis/2288374/Making-a-mint-as-inquiry-founders


Project Mint covers a number of companies allegedly under attack by manipulative short sellers. In addition to Macquarie Group, they include ABC Learning, Allco Finance, Babcock & Brown and Challenger. *There is no denying that in the past 18 months, a very large number of rumours with a very negative twist were circulating the market about their financial health.*

Given the demise of ABC, Allco and Babcock & Brown, logic would dictate many of the rumours were, in fact, true. *It would also suggest that many of the statements emanating from those companies - stridently denying problems and blaming short sellers - were false.*

*Does a public statement about future earnings - and one that clearly is untrue - from a director or senior executive not constitute a false rumour?* Clearly such statements from those running the collapsed companies led to a misinformed market.

There are a number of notable, and particularly worrying, effects from the regulator's obsession with Macquarie.

The first is the stifling of opinion from brokers and analysts on the future prospects of the so-called "millionaires' factory".

At the moment, most analysts are simply too scared to write anything about the group for fear of being caught up in a Project Mint inquiry. Certainly, almost none are prepared to voice an opinion, particularly one that is unfavourable.

As a result, *it could be argued that the corporate regulator has created an environment for an uninformed market given traders now are operating in an information vacuum.*

But there is a far bigger question here about ASIC's priorities and the way it allocates resources.

A fortnight ago, the receiver of Allco urged the regulator to speed up its investigations into the collapsed financial engineer, and especially regarding related party transactions between the company and its founder David Coe and another director, Gordon Fell. Similarly, the receivers at ABC Learning last week raised concerns that assets had been siphoned off from the company.

*This is when ASIC should be front and centre, leading the charge for justice and shareholder rights. Instead, we have an investigation into those who correctly predicted the demise of a collection of badly run bullmarket wonders.*


----------



## legs

whats with the big rally today? The announcement of bonuses bieng cut was it??

It is good news but is it that good??


----------



## glads262

Read the announcement dude. Offer for MCG for 2.50 per share.

My calcs:

MQG have MCG in the books for about $1. Would be valued at approx $600million.

Revaluing this to $2.50 - valued at $1.6 billion.

Profit = $1 billion.

Cash to MQG - 1.6 billion. Which it doesn't currently need = expansion/larger dividend.

All those naysayers in the market that say MQG is dead, imagine if this scenario played out for MAP, MIG etc etc. They are being way undervalued by the market at the moment.

This should put a much larger rocket under the SP than the current 10%.

(figures are rough. Anyone got more firm calc's??)


----------



## CanOz

glads262 said:


> This should put a much larger rocket under the SP than the current 10%.
> 
> (figures are rough. Anyone got more firm calc's??)




Should and does are two different things, there must be so many sellers in this that there is too much supply to allow the price to go up, amazing, its the first time i have seen a stock after an offer fail to race up to the offer price. To me this is a sign of the times too, disbelief and distrust as well.

CanOz


----------



## Gillie

A$2.50 per security values the equity of MCG at A$1.37bn and implies an enterprise value at A$7.3bn and represents a 67% premium to the last closing price of MCG stapled securities, and a 134% premium to the three month average trading price


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Was just thinking the same
> 
> Unbelievable volatility, really feel for anyone who got stopped out of a margin or derivative position at $15
> 
> I should pay closer attention to the banks




wow really really feel for anyone who got stopped out at $!5

Crazy this has almost put on 100% in less than a month

Crazy crazy times we live in


----------



## Aussiest

Just reading on thebull.com.au:

"Macquarie said it had cash and liquid assets of $30.3 billion, compared with $20.8 billion the year before. The banks capital level was $10.2 billion, $3.1 billion above the regulated minimum requirement."

Then, why does it need capital raising?


----------



## cordelia

Although I have looked I cant find any notification as to when trading resumes. Does anyone know?

cheers


----------



## Struzball

cordelia said:


> Although I have looked I cant find any notification as to when trading resumes. Does anyone know?
> 
> cheers




The securities of Macquarie Group Limited (the “Company”) will be placed in pre-open at
the request of the Company, pending the release of an announcement by the Company.
Unless ASX decides otherwise, the securities will remain in pre-open until the earlier of
the commencement of normal trading on *Tuesday, 5 May 2009* or when the
announcement is released to the market.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Ok. Hands-up whose still long? :

*Macquarie Bank profits collapses 52 percent*

YDNEY (AP) ”” Australia's Macquarie Group, once nicknamed the millionaires factory for the number of executives it made rich, said Friday its profits halved last year, and slashed 2.5 billion Australian dollars ($1.8 billion) from its asset values because of the global financial crisis.

It was the first time in 17 years the bank's profits shrank, and its top officials will feel the pinch through pay cuts of up to 99 percent.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gKx733Nd2NwpVpotiYfmOg9TdRUAD97TB8MO0


----------



## Aussiest

Not me. I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot barge pole, lol.

But, i wish i was short. Darn non-shorting of financials , double lol.


----------



## cutz

Aussiest said:


> But, i wish i was short. Darn non-shorting of financials , double lol.




Nah, it’s just an illusion, its always been possible to short financials, just by shorting a call and buying a put at the same strike, don’t tell anyone else though.


----------



## sammy84

Capital raising completed. Shareholder get a dip too at $26.60 or a 5% discount to the VWAP of the shares before closing date (http://newsstore.smh.com.au/apps/previewDocument.ac?docID=GCA00949813MQG). 

Lets see how the price holds, currently not a bad entitlement offer.


----------



## cordelia

well in order to make the capital raising attractive the stock has to maintain a price significantly higher than the offer


Theres been a lot of accumulation above 31.80..MQG a short? I wouldnt think so...its one of the few investment banks in the world that has survived the GFC ...


----------



## nulla nulla

Interesting how MCQ came back to the market for a capital raising, after heatedly denying the need, when it's share price topped $33.00.  The spp to institutions at $27.00 cum div and to retail shareholders at $26.60 ex div, has echo's of the raising of capital by CBA.  CBA raised at $26.00 and is now $35.00 but retraced to mid $26.00 before the offer to retail holders closed. I wonder how much we should expect MQG to retrace between the reopen Monday/Tuesday and the spp closing date? 

The revised dividend at $0.40 is well below the market expectation of $0.74 -$0.90 and doesn't bode well for any sort of reasonable yield on the share price of $26.60 going forward.  Will mqg holders take up the offer? Is it worth taking up?


----------



## ROE

GumbyLearner said:


> Ok. Hands-up whose still long? :
> 
> *Macquarie Bank profits collapses 52 percent*
> 
> YDNEY (AP) — Australia's Macquarie Group, once nicknamed the millionaires factory for the number of executives it made rich, said Friday its profits halved last year, and slashed 2.5 billion Australian dollars ($1.8 billion) from its asset values because of the global financial crisis.
> 
> It was the first time in 17 years the bank's profits shrank, and its top officials will feel the pinch through pay cuts of up to 99 percent.
> 
> http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gKx733Nd2NwpVpotiYfmOg9TdRUAD97TB8MO0




This is unacceptable for a bunch of smart guys, they will come up  with some other jargons and money spinning machine to wow the market soon ... These are not your average sale man but a smart one.

Like BrisConnect ...they wow the market..they said they on board bought a stake so they can milk the fees..as soon as the stock trades, they quit the game at a lost but their fees is more than cover for the sale pitch lost  Amazing stuff ..now i call that a smart move


----------



## NAT88S

Has anyone else been surprised how firmly MQG held today? They actually closed up! I thought for certain they would be down after the Capital Raising announcement.

As a MQG shareholder Im not complaining though. As long as they are trading above 26.60 on 5 June 09 Ill make a nice arbitrage profit.


----------



## investorpaul

NAT88S said:


> Has anyone else been surprised how firmly MQG held today? They actually closed up! I thought for certain they would be down after the Capital Raising announcement.
> 
> As a MQG shareholder Im not complaining though. As long as they are trading above 26.60 on 5 June 09 Ill make a nice arbitrage profit.




I thought MQG would get slaughtered today, it would have been helped though by positive move of the overall market and perhaps people view the capital raising as a positive move as it will allow MQG to acquire sold companies/assets at near rock bottom prices.

Interesting day non the less.


----------



## hecko

So what are people out there thinking about this capital raising? On paper it looks good and the institutional offer hasn't caused the price to drop, but I dont know if the same will remain true for the offer open to the general public. The 10k would be a stretch but even considering going in for the 15k if the price remains stable. Or is the price going to tonk?


----------



## cutz

hecko said:


> So what are people out there thinking about this capital raising? On paper it looks good and the institutional offer hasn't caused the price to drop, but I dont know if the same will remain true for the offer open to the general public. The 10k would be a stretch but even considering going in for the 15k if the price remains stable. Or is the price going to tonk?




G'Day Hecko.

Personally I don’t know which way the price will trend in the coming months but seeing you asked I read something interesting in the Financial Review today, it seems that David Clarke offloaded 153296 shares at $35.50 each on market on the 8 and 11 of May ( what impeccable timing ), and QUOTE " A source informed of Mr Clarke's intentions said the securities had been sold to finance the extension of a zero cost collar and the repayment of a loan" END QUOTE, it's on page 14 if anybody is interested.

Not implying this is good or bad, just something of interest to MQG enthusiasts. (BTW I’m one of them)

I should pay closer attention to company news releases.


----------



## ROE

hecko said:


> So what are people out there thinking about this capital raising? On paper it looks good and the institutional offer hasn't caused the price to drop, but I dont know if the same will remain true for the offer open to the general public. The 10k would be a stretch but even considering going in for the 15k if the price remains stable. Or is the price going to tonk?




This is the mob that keep  telling the market, we got load of cash, we are over capitalise, we can handle anything... then Boom capital raising? Doesn't it smell a little fishy?

I wonder if you tell your friends you have lot of money but have to borrow $2000 from your mum to buy a new LCD.
do your friends think you have lot of cash or you are Pinocchio


----------



## hecko

ROE said:


> This is the mob that keep  telling the market, we got load of cash, we are over capitalise, we can handle anything... then Boom capital raising? Doesn't it smell a little fishy?
> 
> I wonder if you tell your friends you have lot of money but have to borrow $2000 from your mum to buy a new LCD.
> do your friends think you have lot of cash or you are Pinocchio




Point taken, but there is a heap of companies capital raising at the moment... on face value this looks like a great arbitrage opportunity, just interested in any other peoples thoughts on the deal?


----------



## glads262

hecko said:


> Point taken, but there is a heap of companies capital raising at the moment... on face value this looks like a great arbitrage opportunity, just interested in any other peoples thoughts on the deal?




I am a long term holder.
I am going to wait until the last possible moment to B-Pay my funds.
If the SP drops in the next two weeks, I may not participate at all.
I think a lot of people are going to sell their holdings to pay for the SPP.
Quite a lot are doing so now - hence the drop in the last 3 days trading.
There are going to be a stack of people who have borrowed funds to buy the SPP due to the arbitrage ($6 profit per share at the moment)
These guys will all be selling early June on the day the shares hit.
So don't think because it looks like an easy profit now that it will all be smooth trading. There are still risks.
I will be one of the lemmings selling on the day the shares issue...
Also, the placement will be scaled back quite a bit if the share price stays high, because everyone will apply for the full $15000.
And, the less the issue is scaled back, the more shares the above holders will have to sell - ie the SP will fall harder.
Its a catch-22 really...


----------



## moreld

*Re: MQG - Macquarie Group SPP*

MQG have a market cap of $10+ billion, the SPP is likely to be in the range of $200-500M (my WAG) i.e. 2-5% of outstanding shares.
Average daily turnover is around $70M. 

If half those buying are looking to sell after shares issued that would put $100-250M of shares on the market. Which is a small overhang and unlikely to have much of an impact. I doubt half will be selling for a number of reasons.
1.	A lot of people will have already sold some MQG to raise funds and adjust their weighting. They were selling while the share price was rising.
2.	Of those remaining only some will be looking to sell.
3.	3. Not all of them will look to sell right away.

Arbitrage is a risk free transaction. Participating in the SPP is not risk free. There are two weeks between application close and share trading. With current market volatility two weeks is a long time. The average three week volatility as measured by difference between high and low over that period for the last year is 35%, i.e. from the start of next week (last week to apply) to the soonest opportunity you get to sell the price difference between high and low has on average been 35%. 

In 13 of the 52 rolling periods the price difference has been over 50%. 

Not everyone will apply for the whole $15k.
I too will be waiting to final day to enter my SPP.
Just my thoughts YMMV


----------



## hecko

Thanks moreld and glads262, I have been into the share market for 7 years now, but there are times where I feel like a complete newbie so its good to exchange some ideas!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: MQG - Macquarie Group SPP*



glads262 said:


> I am a long term holder.
> I am going to wait until the last possible moment to B-Pay my funds.
> If the SP drops in the next two weeks, I may not participate at all.
> I think a lot of people are going to sell their holdings to pay for the SPP.
> Quite a lot are doing so now - hence the drop in the last 3 days trading.
> There are going to be a stack of people who have borrowed funds to buy the SPP due to the arbitrage ($6 profit per share at the moment)
> These guys will all be selling early June on the day the shares hit.
> So don't think because it looks like an easy profit now that it will all be smooth trading. There are still risks.
> I will be one of the lemmings selling on the day the shares issue...
> Also, the placement will be scaled back quite a bit if the share price stays high, because everyone will apply for the full $15000.
> And, the less the issue is scaled back, the more shares the above holders will have to sell - ie the SP will fall harder.
> Its a catch-22 really...






moreld said:


> MQG have a market cap of $10+ billion, the SPP is likely to be in the range of $200-500M (my WAG) i.e. 2-5% of outstanding shares.
> Average daily turnover is around $70M.
> 
> If half those buying are looking to sell after shares issued that would put $100-250M of shares on the market. Which is a small overhang and unlikely to have much of an impact. I doubt half will be selling for a number of reasons.
> 1.	A lot of people will have already sold some MQG to raise funds and adjust their weighting. They were selling while the share price was rising.
> 2.	Of those remaining only some will be looking to sell.
> 3.	3. Not all of them will look to sell right away.
> 
> Arbitrage is a risk free transaction. Participating in the SPP is not risk free. There are two weeks between application close and share trading. With current market volatility two weeks is a long time. The average three week volatility as measured by difference between high and low over that period for the last year is 35%, i.e. from the start of next week (last week to apply) to the soonest opportunity you get to sell the price difference between high and low has on average been 35%.
> 
> In 13 of the 52 rolling periods the price difference has been over 50%.
> 
> Not everyone will apply for the whole $15k.
> I too will be waiting to final day to enter my SPP.
> Just my thoughts YMMV




One of the things you guys are forgetting is that the reason for the raising, spp, is not to enrich the shareholders but to shore up their balance sheet.

That means their balance sheet is in some strife looking forward.

Perhaps selling now as one of the board or executive did recently and buying back after you guys have done your dough may be a better strategy.

gg


----------



## glads262

*Re: MQG - Macquarie Group SPP*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> One of the things you guys are forgetting is that the reason for the raising, spp, is not to enrich the shareholders but to shore up their balance sheet.
> 
> That means their balance sheet is in some strife looking forward.
> 
> Perhaps selling now as one of the board or executive did recently and buying back after you guys have done your dough may be a better strategy.
> 
> gg




I don't agree gg. They are not shoring up their balance sheet. it is already strong.
The monkey is $1billion in writedowns on listed funds - capital surplus is already $3billion.
I don't think this capital raising means more writedowns to come. I think it means more acquisitions to come at bargain prices.
If they raise $1billion, they can spend this to generate $100-$200million a year in profits - maybe more depending on the asset.
Maybe in the short term (2-3 years) any asset they purchase could return profit of $3-400million a year?? In which case, the capital raising is well worth the dilution.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: MQG - Macquarie Group SPP*



glads262 said:


> I don't agree gg. They are not shoring up their balance sheet. it is already strong.
> The monkey is $1billion in writedowns on listed funds - capital surplus is already $3billion.
> I don't think this capital raising means more writedowns to come. I think it means more acquisitions to come at bargain prices.
> If they raise $1billion, they can spend this to generate $100-$200million a year in profits - maybe more depending on the asset.
> Maybe in the short term (2-3 years) any asset they purchase could return profit of $3-400million a year?? In which case, the capital raising is well worth the dilution.




It depends I suppose on whether you feel we are at the bottom, I don't, one more insult to global well being such as swine flu pnademic and many of MQG's satellites will be in deep trouble, less cash going back to MQG and a lower share price.

gg


----------



## glads262

*Re: MQG - Macquarie Group SPP*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> It depends I suppose on whether you feel we are at the bottom, I don't, one more insult to global well being such as swine flu pnademic and many of MQG's satellites will be in deep trouble, less cash going back to MQG and a lower share price.
> 
> gg




I still disagree. My view is that world economic growth will recover slightly. It is already "less negative" than late last year.
Most of MQG listed assets are producing higher income now than they were this time last year. They are still making money. Its just that the market is valuing them for much less.
Take the MCG? fund takeover offer. This offer was exactly what MQG had the asset on its books for.
If MQG find a buyer for MAP, do you seriously think someone is going to get Sydney airport for half the price it was worth last year?? Sydney airport increased its profits last 12 months.

I think the time for corporate casualties in Australia is over. Most co's that were in "trouble" have now raised or are raising capital. There are no more monkeys in the closet. Business is now getting on with what business does - turn a higher profit. MQG, I believe, is no different.


----------



## babka

I, as a shareholder (long term) totally agree with Glads posts and his way of thinking. I really have nothing new to add to his good posts. As far as GG is concerned, it has been known ,that MQG is not his "darling" to say the least.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

babka said:


> I, as a shareholder (long term) totally agree with Glads posts and his way of thinking. I really have nothing new to add to his good posts. As far as GG is concerned, it has been known ,that MQG is not his "darling" to say the least.




Agree, its a bit like the Englsh parliament at present, the sooner it goes the sooner we will get back to honest banking and investment in this country. Too much free money for little work. Too many fees. Too many incestous relationships with satellites. Believe me it will go.

gg


----------



## wonderrman

*Re: MQG - Macquarie Group SPP*



glads262 said:


> I still disagree. My view is that world economic growth will recover slightly. It is already "less negative" than late last year.






glads262 said:


> There are no more monkeys in the closet. Business is now getting on with what business does - turn a higher profit. .




Your view that growth will recover slighty is due to government intervention, or money printing. This is what the governments of the world have been doing and it only covers over the problem, the debt - the main cause of this "melt down" is still there, for me governments are only prolonging the problem. But they never learn. We have crisis every few years and they always do the same thing.

No more monkeys in the closest - I wouldn't speak to soon mate, we're not going to recover over night at just because we've moved up ~800 points since March doesn't mean we can't wipe that off again. Economically we are still in a very bad shape, as you would know the stock market is not the economy, a lot of damage has been done to the Baltic Dry Index and this is not going to recover over night either.

wonder.


----------



## ccasta

Complete Newbie questions i know, but have to ask:

1. The SPP offer states that _"Shares issued under the SPP will not be eligible for the final 2009 dividend for the year ended 31 March 2009 to be paid on 3 July 2009". _If I were to sell them when they start trading on the 12th June, does the restriction regarding ineligibility of these shares for the final 2009 dividend go with it? If so, how does this work?

2. In view of the above, can i somehow choose to sell only the shares bought under SPP and keep my original holdings?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: MQG - Macquarie Group SPP*



glads262 said:


> I still disagree. My view is that world economic growth will recover slightly. It is already "less negative" than late last year.
> Most of MQG listed assets are producing higher income now than they were this time last year. They are still making money. Its just that the market is valuing them for much less.
> Take the MCG? fund takeover offer. This offer was exactly what MQG had the asset on its books for.
> If MQG find a buyer for MAP, do you seriously think someone is going to get Sydney airport for half the price it was worth last year?? Sydney airport increased its profits last 12 months.
> 
> I think the time for corporate casualties in Australia is over. Most co's that were in "trouble" have now raised or are raising capital. There are no more monkeys in the closet. Business is now getting on with what business does - turn a higher profit. MQG, I believe, is no different.




One reason for the rise in all share prices over thee last few months, including MQG's could be to make the returns for listed, non listed and super funds look better on June 30th.

I myself would not, if I were a fundamentalist, which I'm not, go anywhere near a SPP or a stock like MQG until after 30th June, well after.

gg


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: MQG - Macquarie Group SPP*



wonderrman said:


> Your view that growth will recover slighty is due to government intervention, or money printing. This is what the governments of the world have been doing and it only covers over the problem, the debt - the main cause of this "melt down" is still there, for me governments are only prolonging the problem. But they never learn. We have crisis every few years and they always do the same thing.
> 
> No more monkeys in the closest - I wouldn't speak to soon mate, we're not going to recover over night at just because we've moved up ~800 points since March doesn't mean we can't wipe that off again. Economically we are still in a very bad shape, as you would know the stock market is not the economy, a lot of damage has been done to the Baltic Dry Index and this is not going to recover over night either.
> 
> wonder.




Exactly wonderr.

Still plenty bulk carriers idle in the Straits of Salamis.

The news out of Japan's ecomony today is horrific, I wonder how much business they are getting in Japan. I know the Japanese Government are handing-out money at the moment. But the NIKKEI is UP ! 

I can hear the Bay 13 mob respond in chorus to a rejected LBW appeal.

What a load of rubbish! What a load of rubbish!


----------



## YELNATS

ccasta said:


> Complete Newbie questions i know, but have to ask:
> 
> 1. The SPP offer states that _"Shares issued under the SPP will not be eligible for the final 2009 dividend for the year ended 31 March 2009 to be paid on 3 July 2009". _If I were to sell them when they start trading on the 12th June, does the restriction regarding ineligibility of these shares for the final 2009 dividend go with it? If so, how does this work?
> 
> 2. In view of the above, can i somehow choose to sell only the shares bought under SPP and keep my original holdings?




1. Yes, as the shares issued to retail investors under the SPP are not entitled to this dividend. Only shares held at the end of business on the business day prior to the ex-div date of 11/05/09 (ie. at eod on May 8) will get this div.

2, Yes, of course, and you will still get the div for the number of shares held by you at eod May 8.


----------



## The Mint Man

Re: SPP..
I think my question has been covered but I will ask just to be sure. Are we able to buy the shares at $26.60 and sell our shares at a higher price? providing they are still above that of course.
And at what point does the 5% discount based on the previous 5 days volume weighted average come into effect? below the issue price?

Cheers


----------



## Cartman

hi lads --- dont hold Mac's and dont follow them at all, but just a thought ---  if u guys have been offered shares at a guaranteed 26 bucks --- why not take a short via CFD's at the current sp of approx 34 bucks --- that gives yr purchase a risk free 8 bucks per share does it not? --- only issue would be if yr purchase was not filled to the equivalent CFD short i guess ----- 

are the directors involved in the offer? ---- if so, i bet they are doing the above (indirectly of course   ---- they would never do anything naughty would they !!

and i also bet their share subscriptions are fully allocated as well --- unlike the average punter who will have to "punt" on getting filled --- ya gotta luv the MacBank boys; all class !! ---- who says i'm cynical


----------



## johannlo

Its not risk free as the dilution could hammer the SP for the short termer.

For a long termer could be a good deal but then again if you're talking long term there are lots of other biggies out there still undervalued depending on what criteria/metric and your outlook on larger economy.



> I wouldn't speak to soon mate, we're not going to recover over night at just because we've moved up ~800 points since March doesn't mean we can't wipe that off again.



<--- this


----------



## Cartman

johannlo said:


> Its not risk free as the dilution could hammer the SP for the short termer.
> 
> For a long termer could be a good deal but then again if you're talking long term there are lots of other biggies out there still undervalued depending on what criteria/metric and your outlook on larger economy.
> 
> 
> <--- this




hey Johann ---- if u were guaranteed a fill of yr allotment, it *would* be risk free (if u shorted CFd's against it), but the guaranteed fill is the problem ----- if the sp gets diluted obviously punters *current* holdings could be negatively affected, but that is a separate situation to the offer ---- personally, id be taking a punt on getting the allotment, and shorting the equivalent (or at least 50%) CFD's and locking in the $8 buffer ---- be very surprised to see the sp rise significantly after the offer is subscribed (unless of course the Mac boys push it up so they can dump at a profit   --- then it will tank after they unload anyway ---- do u get the impression i dont trust the MacBank boyz lol   ( i hear a faint Bris Connections tune humming in my head !! )


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

The short sellers will be in to MQG., this week looking to make a quick buck.

This chart has a symmmetry to it, its a weekly over 2 yrs.

Sorry I can't post it, but heres the link.

I'm still looking at picking it up at $8.

http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/qt/q...on=charts&submit=Go&submit=#topOfChartsAnchor


gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

MQG seems to be holding well for the first 45 minutes of trade, just down about 50c and holding above $30. If it breaks below $30 it may be in strife today but it certainly looks to be holding above that.

There appear to be only just over twice as many sellers than buyers, but I never believe market depth.

It will be interesting to see how it goes when folk wake up in the US and UK tonight and this evening outr time.

gg


----------



## johannlo

That's true Cartman but I'm a naive newbie with no real knowledge of CFDs or shorting, sticking to the basics (buy low, sell high, short term rely on TA, long term look at fundamentals etc.). Thanks for your comments


----------



## glads262

Garpal Gumnut said:


> MQG seems to be holding well for the first 45 minutes of trade, just down about 50c and holding above $30. If it breaks below $30 it may be in strife today but it certainly looks to be holding above that.
> 
> There appear to be only just over twice as many sellers than buyers, but I never believe market depth.
> 
> It will be interesting to see how it goes when folk wake up in the US and UK tonight and this evening outr time.
> 
> gg




Yup, especially when they wake up and figure out they can now short Aus financials.

Interesting to see what happens end of trade today - as some traders in the UK should have returned to work by then.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

glads262 said:


> Yup, especially when they wake up and figure out they can now short Aus financials.
> 
> Interesting to see what happens end of trade today - as some traders in the UK should have returned to work by then.




Traditionally does shorting of financial stocks occur at the beginning of trade, as a slow dribble through the day or with a burst at the end of trade?

Does anyone know?

MQG looks ok today.

gg


----------



## babka

GG's quote: I am looking at picking it up at $8.
To say that you must have a reason, or some indications that MQG sp will go down to $8.00. If you do, it would be much appreciated to publish them and enlighten us, readers.


----------



## oldblue

On the subject of shorting financial stocks such as MQG - or any other stocks for that matter - can anyone enlighten me on the following:

- I assume that "naked" shorting is still not allowed? ie one must borrow the stock to be able to short it?

- If this is so, why on earth would anyone lend their stock when the intention is to lower the value of that (their) security? Is the price received so high that the offer just can't be refused?

- Or is it a case that the beneficial owner of the stock is not always aware that their stock is being lent? Or doesn't understand the implications? I've often wondered about the huge volumes of shares held in nominee accounts and whether the beneficial owners always know what's going on.

Any answers out there?


----------



## Struzball

oldblue said:


> why on earth would anyone lend their stock when the intention is to lower the value of that (their) security? Is the price received so high that the offer just can't be refused?
> ?




Somebody selling the shares wouldn't lower the value of it in my mind.

If I sold my house tomorrow would that suddenly make it worth less?

If I lent my house to somebody so they could sell it, then later buy it back at a lower price would my house be worth less because of the transaction? or just because it is then worth less.

Somebody always has to buy back the shares when they short it, and they would buy it back at whatever the market deems it is worth at that time.  Regardless of who is buying it or selling it and for what reasons.

That's how I see short selling.  Also on the plus side it would create more volume and give the market more direction.


----------



## oldblue

Struzball said:


> Somebody selling the shares wouldn't lower the value of it in my mind.
> 
> If I sold my house tomorrow would that suddenly make it worth less?
> 
> If I lent my house to somebody so they could sell it, then later buy it back at a lower price would my house be worth less because of the transaction? or just because it is then worth less.
> 
> Somebody always has to buy back the shares when they short it, and they would buy it back at whatever the market deems it is worth at that time.  Regardless of who is buying it or selling it and for what reasons.
> 
> That's how I see short selling.  Also on the plus side it would create more volume and give the market more direction.




Sorry, Struzball.
I meant "price", not "value". ( Bad slip!  )
The whole point of short selling is to lower the price, so that the shares can be bought back cheaper. If that isn't directly against the interests of the beneficial owner, I don't know what is!

By the way, I don't think that the house analogy is valid. Houses are individual, not generic. Shares in XYZ Ltd are shares in XYZ Ltd!


----------



## Struzball

oldblue said:


> Sorry, Struzball.
> I meant "price", not "value". ( Bad slip!  )
> The whole point of short selling is to lower the price, so that the shares can be bought back cheaper. If that isn't directly against the interests of the beneficial owner, I don't know what is!
> 
> By the way, I don't think that the house analogy is valid. Houses are individual, not generic. Shares in XYZ Ltd are shares in XYZ Ltd!




Well my point is, that if the price is lowered, it then has to be raised again because if price is less than value, price has to go back up to be equal to value (in theory).

And I think typically the people lending their shares to people are big institutions that are long term investors, and wouldn't be bothered by price fluctuations.

But anyway, there's a thread for this 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10075&page=8


----------



## cutz

oldblue said:


> The whole point of short selling is to lower the price, so that the shares can be bought back cheaper. If that isn't directly against the interests of the beneficial owner, I don't know what is!




G'Day oldblue,

Thought i'll check sentiment on my favourite stock and it's turned into a short selling discussion.

The whole point of short selling is not to lower the price but to sell in anticipation of a price drop, just like when going long you're not actually pushing up prices but buying in anticipation of a price rise.

If MQG is destined to get slammed in the next few weeks it will happen regardless of short selling.


----------



## nick2fish

babka said:


> GG's quote: I am looking at picking it up at $8.
> To say that you must have a reason, or some indications that MQG sp will go down to $8.00. If you do, it would be much appreciated to publish them and enlighten us, readers.




Exactly, I incurred a infraction on this thread for an overly bullish ramp on this stock which included an equally bullish sp price target. Apparently though unsupported bearsih rants coupled with falling of a cliff sp price prediction seem to be OK


----------



## Kez180

On that note I am sure there are many cases of investors looking over funding agreements for market cap triggers and then shorting to hit them... Obviously this takes Uber money and a lack of conscience but it does happen...


----------



## oldblue

Struzball said:


> Well my point is, that if the price is lowered, it then has to be raised again because if price is less than value, price has to go back up to be equal to value (in theory).
> 
> And I think typically the people lending their shares to people are big institutions that are long term investors, and wouldn't be bothered by price fluctuations.
> 
> But anyway, there's a thread for this
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10075&page=8




Thanks, Struzball.

I didn't mean to hijack the MQG thread for a discussion on shorting so will sign off here.
Hard to believe though that that discussion tailed off on 23 June, 2008 as if nothing of any importance happened thereafter!

Cheers


----------



## johannlo

nick2fish said:


> Exactly, I incurred a infraction on this thread for an overly bullish ramp on this stock which included an equally bullish sp price target. Apparently though unsupported bearsih rants coupled with falling of a cliff sp price prediction seem to be OK




Haven't you noticed mate, bearish rants are all the rage at the moment. You should hit up some US forums you'd think the sky was falling in. 

Which in fairness from a US or Japanese or UK perspective, has a lot more factual support than our market (fortunately).

I've noticed with these former high profile corporate raider stocks like BBI, macquarie etc. that forum sentiment is running high and this is probably due to the fact that a lot of people have a lot of eggs in the basket


----------



## cutz

babka said:


> GG's quote: I am looking at picking it up at $8.
> To say that you must have a reason, or some indications that MQG sp will go down to $8.00. If you do, it would be much appreciated to publish them and enlighten us, readers.




Hi Guys, fellow bulls and bears.

Just want to mention that G.G. already explained his reasons for his bearish sentiments on this stock, you may just have to refer to his previous posts on this matter, me personally also feel slightly bearish on MQG due to the reasons none other than what I highlighted on post #763, may not be a valid reason but one nevertheless.

BTW i would have thought a return to volatility would have been welcomed, as traders this is what we live for.


----------



## hecko

Not everyone on this forum is a trader though!

...yet anyway 

Well I am still watching eagerly, very much in two minds whether to give them my cash or not for this capital raising. I've realised some sizeable losses recently so am not sure whether that is affecting my judgement or not


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks Naked, but if you read my posts I would predict that MQB will go under a dollar.
> 
> I've been bearish on this Merchant Bank/Potofgoldforinsiders since it was $14 on the way up!
> 
> Its a dog
> 
> Technically its being pushed up to levels where insiders can sell out .
> 
> It is a very sick puppie.
> 
> A chart
> 
> A long term downtrend.
> 
> And a short term downtrend.
> 
> I won't depress holders with moving averages.
> 
> Note the low volumes.
> 
> A miracle will pick it up, bad news and theres lots of it about will increase volumes and if the price goes down its going to be very very ugly
> 
> gg






cutz said:


> G'Day Hecko.
> 
> Personally I don’t know which way the price will trend in the coming months but seeing you asked I read something interesting in the Financial Review today, it seems that David Clarke offloaded 153296 shares at $35.50 each on market on the 8 and 11 of May ( what impeccable timing ), and QUOTE " A source informed of Mr Clarke's intentions said the securities had been sold to finance the extension of a zero cost collar and the repayment of a loan" END QUOTE, it's on page 14 if anybody is interested.
> 
> Not implying this is good or bad, just something of interest to MQG enthusiasts. (BTW I’m one of them)
> 
> I should pay closer attention to company news releases.






cutz said:


> Hi Guys, fellow bulls and bears.
> 
> Just want to mention that G.G. already explained his reasons for his bearish sentiments on this stock, you may just have to refer to his previous posts on this matter, me personally also feel slightly bearish on MQG due to the reasons none other than what I highlighted on post #763, may not be a valid reason but one nevertheless.
> 
> BTW i would have thought a return to volatility would have been welcomed, as traders this is what we live for.




Thanks for your defence of me cutz.

I've quoted the original chart , I don't have an update, problems with a computer crash and charting software, however if you do look at MQG there is huge support resistance at $35 and that is where that guy inside sold out recently.

So if it went up above $35 and then retraced to that level and then took off again I might believe it was finally in an uptrend.

Otherwise I'll stay bearish on the stock.



gg


----------



## babka

GG, may I quote your post #784 "I am still looking at picking it up at $8.00"
            "            "           #801 " I would predict that MQG will go under a dollar". If you think that MQG will go down under a dollar, why would you bother to pick it up at $8.00???? Your posts are a concoction of downramping, confusion and grudges, since you haven't been able to present any reasonable argument to support your opinions.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

babka said:


> GG, may I quote your post #784 "I am still looking at picking it up at $8.00"
> "            "           #801 " I would predict that MQG will go under a dollar". If you think that MQG will go down under a dollar, why would you bother to pick it up at $8.00???? Your posts are a concoction of downramping, confusion and grudges, since you haven't been able to present any reasonable argument to support your opinions.




Mate, Nick Taleb the guy who wrote the Black Swan book on rare events and the consensus of fools in the market, relates a conversation he had with George Soros one morning at about 10am. 

Soros as you know is in the top 50 richest men in the world and is a skilled speculator.

He asked Soros was he bullish or bearish on the US dollar. Remember this was 10am. He told Nick he was very bearish.

That afternoon at 3pm Soros appeared on TV being asked why he had bought up so many US dollars, since midday. He said he was bullish on the dollar.

Aggrieved Nick rang Soros and George said to Nick in explanation

" Never be afraid to change your mind. After speaking to you , I took on board some things you said and changed my mind."

And that is what I do, and that is what I would advise you not to be afraid to do.

MQG may go to a dollar or to $100 over the next few years, as may any stock.

None of us have a looking glass, just opinions and I value yours as much as my own, and I will change that opinion as circmstances demand.

On a fundamental basis I have on many threads in this forum questioned MQG, MBL as it was, BNB and other "banks and financial institutions" who speculate, double dip, lend to set up satellites and then charge fees for for accounting and pay their executives and board indecent fees and option packages. I will continue to do so.

On the Allco Finance thread people were just as strident as you are in its defence and good on them. It no longer exists. Shares are worth 0.00.

For what its worth on a charting basis $35 is a bit of a ceiling on this stock at present.

gg


----------



## adds

I'm bearish on this stock too at the moment. From a technical perspective I don't believe its looking to good in the short term. I've been short for the past number of days. This is not a bearish rant just trading what I see.


----------



## boff

Me too, I've been short since Monday, expecting to exit the trade at $27 around the time everyone gets their $26 shares at the end of next week.
Far from a cut and dried short term trade though as the volatility is such that it's an easy one to get stopped out on.
Also, thanks to the participants on this thread for their insights. It's been useful.


----------



## shag

yes they still have not explained how they r going to make a buk in this new market have they?
apart from arbritrage on using the gov's garantee/credit rating.
nz has a queenstown hotel project that they could sink up to 2bill into to keep it alive, and it has to be a far far better bet than when the idiots at macbank aus branch sunk a few mill into that dodgy blue chip fiasco(despite their macbank nz branch saying dont touch blue chip with a 100foot barge pole).
note the chief proprietor of blue chip is a guy called mark bryers, who is exiled to a pad in sydney, is trying to set up the same scheme here.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-tangled-web-of-blue-chip/news/headlines.cfm?c_id=1501803
i know even the big boys make mistakes, but this one was so bad, at the last couple of yrs it was basically a ponzi scheme.
i'd be interested if he still had links to macbank, considered hes a wanted man by nz plublic plus nz courts and seems to have support here somehow.


----------



## babka

GG, thanks for your post and the examples quoted. Point taken and your effort in answering is much appreciated.


----------



## adds

boff said:


> Me too, I've been short since Monday, expecting to exit the trade at $27 around the time everyone gets their $26 shares at the end of next week.
> Far from a cut and dried short term trade though as the volatility is such that it's an easy one to get stopped out on.
> Also, thanks to the participants on this thread for their insights. It's been useful.




LOL, I have to agree with you on that one Boff, thought I was going be stopped out yesterday when it touched Monday's open.


----------



## boff

adds said:


> LOL, I have to agree with you on that one Boff, thought I was going be stopped out yesterday when it touched Monday's open.



Crikey - I'm with you there! My stop is at $32.25 and I think it got to $32.18 - v. glad I didn't have the screen up at the time, although tomorrow is of course very much another day.....


----------



## boff

boff said:


> Crikey - I'm with you there! My stop is at $32.25 and I think it got to $32.18 - v. glad I didn't have the screen up at the time, although tomorrow is of course very much another day.....




doh.. burnt fingers - stopped out at $32.28. Still, it'll be interesting to see how the week pans out. I've got a fairly strict rule about not chasing down a loss,so I won't be trying to short it again myself this week.


----------



## Largesse

The Big Donut up big time on news David Clarke is back in the game.

Well done of him for beating his sickness.


----------



## naughtynickers

yeah all the short sellers will be hitting the panic button! 
word coming out of Maq bank there was very strong interest in the SPP.. wouldn't be surprise to see this rally for some time, if your short I'd be closing out it's now up over 10% on the day.


----------



## cutz

naughtynickers said:


> yeah all the short sellers will be hitting the panic button!
> word coming out of Maq bank there was very strong interest in the SPP.. wouldn't be surprise to see this rally for some time, if your short I'd be closing out it's now up over 10% on the day.




Yeah on what basis, have you just gone long, how are you so sure that heavy short interest is out there, have you just bought off a shorter, what are you on about ??

Or are you just ramping, maybe you're just afraid of the boogie man.

Don't worry it's all just an illusion.

Hint>> Play your own game, try not to worry about what others are doing.

Adios.


----------



## naughtynickers

cutz said:


> Yeah on what basis, have you just gone long, how are you sure that heavy short interest is out there, have you just bought off a shorter, what are you on about ??
> 
> Or are you just ramping, maybe you're just afraid of the boogie man.
> 
> Don't worry it's all just an illusion.
> 
> Hint>> Play your own game, try not to worry about what others are doing.
> 
> Adios.





thanks for making me feel welcome on my first post lol

i'm neither short or long, just letting people know that if you are shorting maq bank unless you're thinking long term it's of my opinion now is not the time to short it now. I am led to believe the SPP was very successfully and what you are seeing today is a reaction of such, that people want to consolidate their positions of this shonky stock

but anyway we will see I guess


----------



## jono1887

after that 12% rally today, i assume there'll be some sort of correction tomorrow... unless they keep rallying up based on the US markets


----------



## nick2fish

Garpal Gumnut said:


> For what its worth on a charting basis $35 is a bit of a ceiling on this stock at present.
> 
> gg




Ceiling has gone Garpal. Is it now up,up and away now that capital raising has been completed ?  What you know today,  may not amount too much tomorrow. I continue to hold today


----------



## glads262

This just beggars belief. Not sure what is driving this rally...

I shorted 200 shares at 32.00 - locking in the sale price of approximately how many shares I expected from the SPP.
now I'm going to get 550 odd shares??
Lost $1000 on the short, but gained $2500 on the SPP shares so far!
Am going to have to close out my short today, and will look to replace it end of the week. Will have to see where this leads.


----------



## josh92

so with the offer now closed?
does everyone get the full amount of shares that they requested based on how much they invested? or is there still a scale back to how many shares will be offered?

with todays nice gains a hedge may be in order. we will see by close.
but interested on the first part.

thnx in advance


----------



## glads262

josh92 said:


> so with the offer now closed?
> does everyone get the full amount of shares that they requested based on how much they invested? or is there still a scale back to how many shares will be offered?
> 
> with todays nice gains a hedge may be in order. we will see by close.
> but interested on the first part.
> 
> thnx in advance




No Scaleback.
If you applied for $15k, you should get 565 shares.
At $36.60, thats a $5650 profit if you sold today...
Like I said, where has this rally come from??
I can't tell...
Anyone who hasn't already, could consider shorting 565 shares today and locking in their sell price on their SPP shares. 
Not bad for two weeks work...
That said, this unexplained rally could continue for the next week too!


----------



## moreld

Here is MQG's ASX announcement is case anyone is interested.

55,000 apps for $669M resulting in up to 25.2M new shares.

So it appears about 1/3 of eligible shares were taken up. Did the fall last week scare people away?


----------



## airpoe

moreld said:


> Here is MQG's ASX announcement is case anyone is interested.
> 
> 55,000 apps for $669M resulting in up to 25.2M new shares.
> 
> So it appears about 1/3 of eligible shares were taken up. Did the fall last week scare people away?



The fall did effect my decision, I was going to put $15k when the price was $37 but it went down, so I only brought $10k

I put the other in BSL as the % was alot better but I applied for alot, probably get a massive scale back!!


----------



## The Owls

Looking on CommSec this morning I saw this in the course of sales for MQG. Could someone explain what it means with the share price showing $86.00 which has no relation to the current price.


Trade of MQG occurring on Thursday, 04 Jun 2009
Time             Price  Volume   Value   Condition 
07:05:20 AM 86.000 1,000  86,000.00   EP


----------



## cutz

The Owls said:


> Looking on CommSec this morning I saw this in the course of sales for MQG. Could someone explain what it means with the share price showing $86.00 which has no relation to the current price.
> 
> 
> Trade of MQG occurring on Thursday, 04 Jun 2009
> Time             Price  Volume   Value   Condition
> 07:05:20 AM 86.000 1,000  86,000.00   EP





Those early morning trades are option assignments, in your example one $86 put option. ( 1 contact = 1000 shares)


----------



## The Owls

Cutz
I am new to the share market. Does this mean that a trade was done at $86.00 and if so why such a high amount


----------



## cutz

The Owls said:


> Cutz
> I am new to the share market. Does this mean that a trade was done at $86.00 and if so why such a high amount




It sure was, the proud owner of the 86 strike put exercised his/her right to sell 1000 MQG shares to the unfortunate soul who was still short an 86 strike put contract.

Hope that makes sense, maybe check out the options threads if you like.


----------



## investorpaul

The Owls said:


> Cutz
> I am new to the share market. Does this mean that a trade was done at $86.00 and if so why such a high amount




To add a bit more to  cutz has said:

Person A would have bought a Put Contract (which gives them the right but not the obligation to sell 100 MQG shares for $86 at some future date).

Person B sold the put contract to Person A hoping MQG would not drop in price and therefore makes $$$ without really having to do anything. 

Obviously the price has dropped and Person A can sell his shares using the Put Contract at $86 regardless of the current price.

Also even though this transaction went throught and shows up in the course of sales it wont reflect/impact the current market price of MQG


----------



## The Owls

Investorpaul & Cutz
Thank you for your information it has been great, it has also shown me that I have a lot to learn.


----------



## moreld

MQG shares have now been allocated. You can check computershare to confirm you got your full allocation.
40% of eligible investors took up the offer, though only 1/3 of total amount was applied for.
There was no scaleback.
Shares will be available to trade next Friday 12 June.

I thought there would be a scaleback. I either underestimated the stupidity of the average retail investor or overestimated their capacity to get their hands on $15k. Once again the spoils go to the few.


----------



## cutz

moreld said:


> I either underestimated the stupidity of the average retail investor or overestimated their capacity to get their hands on $15k. Once again the spoils go to the few.




What do you mean moreid, you're sounding like Margaret Jackson. I haven't been following but a 40% takeup sounds a little weird.

Are you suggesting this was an offer that couldn't be refused, bit like the APA deal ??


----------



## hecko

moreld said:


> Shares will be available to trade next Friday 12 June.




The how was I able to sell them today?! lol, I hope I didnt do something I wasnt meant to!


----------



## bryan_palmer

glads262 said:


> No Scaleback.
> If you applied for $15k, you should get 565 shares.
> At $36.60, thats a $5650 profit if you sold today...
> Like I said, where has this rally come from??
> I can't tell...
> Anyone who hasn't already, could consider shorting 565 shares today and locking in their sell price on their SPP shares.
> Not bad for two weeks work...
> That said, this unexplained rally could continue for the next week too!




Allotment day was yesterday Friday 5th June, once the shares have been allotted can't you sell them already or do you have to wait until next Friday?


----------



## moreld

cutz said:


> What do you mean moreid, you're sounding like Margaret Jackson. I haven't been following but a 40% takeup sounds a little weird.
> 
> Are you suggesting this was an offer that couldn't be refused, bit like the APA deal ??



The SPP had the best risk/reward profile I have seen. I'm suggesting that it was an offer that should absolutely not have been refused by retail share investors, yet 60% of eligible shareholders refused it.


----------



## Julia

Doesn't the fact that 60% of eligible shareholders refused indicate that MQG is still regarded in the relatively high risk category?  i.e. that people might hold some of this but be reluctant to increase their holding?


----------



## db96

bryan_palmer said:


> Allotment day was yesterday Friday 5th June, once the shares have been allotted can't you sell them already or do you have to wait until next Friday?




You could sell these shares today and do not have to wait until Friday. These companies have the right to change the dates at their discretion.


----------



## skyQuake

db96 said:


> You could sell these shares today and do not have to wait until Friday. These companies have the right to change the dates at their discretion.




Sure about that? The announcement on the 11th May has 12th Jun as the Trading date.

Cheers                                                                                                                     
filling chars...


----------



## naughtynickers

skyQuake said:


> Sure about that? The announcement on the 11th May has 12th Jun as the Trading date.
> 
> Cheers
> filling chars...




Yeah my colleague at worked just dumped his new holdings this morning for just over $40, I can't believe they are trading this high. 

I am looking to go short now I think, tomorrow a large amount of  people who think you had to hold till Friday will be selling but yeah who knows I am just speculating.


----------



## skyQuake

naughtynickers said:


> Yeah my colleague at worked just dumped his new holdings this morning for just over $40, I can't believe they are trading this high.
> 
> I am looking to go short now I think, tomorrow a large amount of  people who think you had to hold till Friday will be selling but yeah who knows I am just speculating.




Hey, sorry to keep digging this up, but that person could have just dumped he pre-existing shares? I think you are allocated the shares, but cannot trade them yet.

http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00958927


----------



## bonkerrs

What to do about voting? I have some shares in MQG but don't really know enough to make an informed vote. I'm sure I'm not the only one in this position... or am I?! What do others do?


----------



## haunting

The MacQuarie Stings, click me!

** for the record. If they prosper by reinventing themselves as some kind of new vampire, this will serve as a good reference.


----------



## Macquack

haunting said:


> The MacQuarie Stings, click me!
> 
> ** for the record. If they prosper by reinventing themselves as some kind of new vampire, this will serve as a good reference.




You have to hand it to the MacGrabsters. 

MAP unitholders have been ripped off since day one for management fees paid to Macquarie Group. Now MQG are kindly going to allow MAP to run their own affairs and the "piss off you thieving bastards" payout is only $345 million!

In the article, Stuart Washington asks the question "Were the listed specialised infrastructure funds one big joke?" Well it looks like MQG are laughing all the way back to their own bank.

This has to be the final grab by the MacMasters of Bleed. Surely, one day they must run out of willing donors to bleed dry.


----------



## Mofra

Not really new news to anyone who knows a little about Mac:

http://business.smh.com.au/business/macpunter-cash-gets-sucked-into-vortex-20090806-ebh8.html



> Spot the difference:
> 
> Exhibit A
> 
> "A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to separate investors from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors, rather than from any actual profit earned. The Ponzi scheme usually offers returns that other investments cannot guarantee in order to entice new investors, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent. The perpetuation of the returns that a Ponzi scheme advertises and pays requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors in order to keep the scheme going. The system is destined to collapse because the earnings, if any, are less than the payments." - Wikipedia.
> 
> Exhibit B
> 
> 
> A Macquarie externally managed trust scheme is a legal investment operation that pays returns to investors from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors, rather than from any actual profit earned. The Macquarie scheme usually offers returns that other investments cannot guarantee in order to entice new investors, in the form of short-term returns that are unusually consistent. The perpetuation of the returns that a Macquarie scheme pays requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors (and banks) in order to keep the scheme going. The system is now collapsing because the earnings have been less than the payments - after killer interest bills on a mountain of debt.


----------



## haunting

Here is the story of an MQG Independent Director...

** dum dee dum dee dum dee dum dee dum dee dum dee... and I shall a 100 chars if I try hard enough.


----------



## Mofra

haunting said:


> Here is the story of an MQG Independent Director...
> 
> ** dum dee dum dee dum dee dum dee dum dee dum dee... and I shall a 100 chars if I try hard enough.



The pertinent statement from teh article as I see it:


> But the Bermuda-based Jeffrey Conyers said he had not disclosed his wife Edith Conyers' business relationship with Macquarie Airports (among others) to unit holders because he did not consider it relevant.




As an ex-Macquarie employee, this didn't even cause me to batter an eyelid.


----------



## Timmy

Article in the Financial Times this morning

_"Mac Bank, which is moving away from its old business model focused on listed infrastructure funds and looking increasingly to the US and Asia, is bursting into another segment of China's capital markets, via a Shanghai-based joint venture with two Chinese state-controlled companies.
...
The new, new JV ”” Sino-Australian International Trust Co ”” has an initial capital of Rmb300m ($43.9m) and will enable Macquarie to arrange domestic and equity financing and offer yuan-denominated financial products, the bank said."_


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

> Spot the difference:
> 
> Exhibit A
> 
> "A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to separate investors from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors, rather than from any actual profit earned. The Ponzi scheme usually offers returns that other investments cannot guarantee in order to entice new investors, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent. The perpetuation of the returns that a Ponzi scheme advertises and pays requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors in order to keep the scheme going. The system is destined to collapse because the earnings, if any, are less than the payments." - Wikipedia.
> 
> Exhibit B
> 
> 
> A Macquarie externally managed trust scheme is a legal investment operation that pays returns to investors from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors, rather than from any actual profit earned. The Macquarie scheme usually offers returns that other investments cannot guarantee in order to entice new investors, in the form of short-term returns that are unusually consistent. The perpetuation of the returns that a Macquarie scheme pays requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors (and banks) in order to keep the scheme going. The system is now collapsing because the earnings have been less than the payments - after killer interest bills on a mountain of debt.




I have had a run of good luck in prophesying the demise of 3 of the biggest ponzi's in recent Australian corporate history.

The first was AFG. Allco are gone.

The second was BNB. Babcock are gone.

The third was MQG.

Roll on Octoberfest.

Schadenfreude.

gg


----------



## gooner

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I have had a run of good luck in prophesying the demise of 3 of the biggest ponzi's in recent Australian corporate history.
> 
> The first was AFG. Allco are gone.
> 
> The second was BNB. Babcock are gone.
> 
> The third was MQG.
> 
> Roll on Octoberfest.
> 
> Schadenfreude.
> 
> gg




GG

Methinks you will be wrong

This was a very tidy profit earner for those of us who realised $15 was ridiculous, although I personally sold out at $30, so missed quite a bit of additional profit.

MQG is an APRA licensed investment bank. It is not a ponzi scheme. It has evolved to meet changing regulatory requirements and will continue to do so. It is an example of Australian excellence on a global scale.

I predict 2011 will be a record profit year for MQG

I say this despite them once turning me down for a job.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

gooner said:


> GG
> 
> Methinks you will be wrong
> 
> This was a very tidy profit earner for those of us who realised $15 was ridiculous, although I personally sold out at $30, so missed quite a bit of additional profit.
> 
> MQG is an APRA licensed investment bank. It is not a ponzi scheme. It has evolved to meet changing regulatory requirements and will continue to do so. It is an example of Australian excellence on a global scale.
> 
> I predict 2011 will be a record profit year for MQG
> 
> I say this despite them once turning me down for a job.




Don't think so mate.

History is on my side.

Macquarie has a devouring secret about to hit.

For now lets look at Allco in the past.



> Allco Finance doubles profit
> 
> SMH
> 
> By Lisa Murray
> November 23, 2005
> 
> David Coe's Allco Finance Group more than doubled its net profit last financial year to $13.9 million as it raked in fees for finding and structuring deals.
> 
> The group is looking to merge with its main client, Record Investments, in which it has a 24 per cent stake, to create a financial powerhouse that would compete in the same league as Macquarie Bank and Babcock & Brown.




gg


----------



## gooner

GG

ALLCO and BNB were not regulated investment banks. They did not have any APRA oversight. MQG has an excellent reputation for its risk management processes.

Personally I reckon the chance of a devouring secret about to hit is the same as old Osama being captured today.........

But hey if that is what you think, a lot of money to be made from buying deep out of the money puts.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

gooner said:


> GG
> 
> 
> But hey if that is what you think, a lot of money to be made from buying deep out of the money puts.




Not now.  I wouldn't want the guvment coming after me for buying out of the money puts after a post like that.



gg


----------



## gooner

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Not now.  I wouldn't want the guvment coming after me for buying out of the money puts after a post like that.
> 
> 
> 
> gg




If you are not careful they will come after you for your initial comment. Rumourtrage is illegal, so unless you have something to back it up..


----------



## airpoe

i still remember GG saying a month a go MQG was gonna drop back to $1

i'm swimming in MQG profits, but GG may not like bitter grapes!!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

gooner said:


> If you are not careful they will come after you for your initial comment. Rumourtrage is illegal, so unless you have something to back it up..




 gg



airpoe said:


> i still remember GG saying a month a go MQG was gonna drop back to $1
> 
> i'm swimming in MQG profits, but GG may not like bitter grapes!!




Good onya mate, a profit is a profit in this climate. And no sour grapes. 

MQG is a ponzi though, and when it turns go short.

gg


----------



## Gekko

Anyone else heard that Macquarie is to be lead advisor in Myer's float later this year? MQG is branching away from advisory into more of an ECM player/broker, so it would vertainly be a prestigious pick up if confirmed.


----------



## Gekko

Yesterday could have been the yearly high. Expecting $50 to be resistance. What a move from 15 dollars of early March.


----------



## Gekko

Close above $53 yesterday. $5 move in 2-3 days. What a move. Talk of European acquisitions coming up. Surely it can not continue this move?


----------



## doctorj

> Australia’s *Macquarie Group* on Wednesday said it would buy Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller, a US-based boutique bank, in an effort to turn itself into a global player in the provision of banking services to financial institutions.
> *Macquarie* will pay $130m cash for FPK’s equity and will assume $16.7m of long-term debt, with some of the payment spread over four years following the deal’s closure later this year.



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c8411598-adec-11de-87e7-00144feabdc0.html

Everything points to Mac continuing its evolution from a leveraged infrastructure player to wanting a chunk of the fees generated from banking financial institutions.  Makes sense given all the cap raisings and consolidation that's likely to happen in the next couple of years.


----------



## Macquack

*Macquarie Group beefs up European M&A team with hire of ex-Citigroup banker*



> THE corporate advisory arm of Macquarie Group has appointed Sam Small to head up its European mergers and acquisitions unit.
> 
> Mr Small, who becomes a senior managing director, was most recently managing director in Citigroup's M&A global markets division.



http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26171934-36418,00.html


Sam Small from Citigroup, the banking giant that suffered huge losses during the global financial crisis of 2008 due to the greed and incompetence of its management and had to be rescued by a massive bailout from the U.S. taxpayer.

Good coup, MacGrab!

Those charitable people at Macquarie are doing their bit for United States unemployment. Sam Small was destined for the dole queue.


----------



## Macquack

*$18.6m share plan for Macquarie boss*
http://www.watoday.com.au/business/186m-share-plan-for-macquarie-boss-20091117-ikfr.html


> MACQUARIE Group will ask shareholders to approve about $18.6 million in new shares for chief executive Nicholas Moore as part of an overhaul of remuneration for the investment bank's top executives to drive up long-term returns.





> If the approvals sought by Macquarie are not obtained, Macquarie will need to consider other alternatives," the bank said yesterday in its notice of meeting to shareholders.



And if the shareholders dont like it, they can get stuffed. We will take the cash anyway.


> This will likely result in higher cash payments to executives and *reduced alignment with shareholders* in at least the short term.



I think "reduced alignment with shareholders" is MacGrab speak for "F*ck the shareholders".


----------



## nulla nulla

Macquack said:


> *$18.6m share plan for Macquarie boss*
> http://www.watoday.com.au/business/186m-share-plan-for-macquarie-boss-20091117-ikfr.html
> 
> 
> And if the shareholders dont like it, they can get stuffed. We will take the cash anyway.
> 
> I think "reduced alignment with shareholders" is MacGrab speak for "F*ck the shareholders".




I hold mqg shares and have no complaints with the directors. If past experience is anything to go by, if the directors and management are happy with their remuneration (bonuses being linked to profits and improvement in share prices) then I will see a twofold return working through to me in the future through increasing dividends and gains in the share price. When mqg did the spp at $26.60 they allowed shareholders to take up their full $15,000 application without scaleback. 

Unlike the nab, which pandied upto their institutional shareholder mates at the expense of the retail shareholders by allowing the institutional shareholders to take the lions share of the spp and scaling back the retail shareholders to less than 33% of their entitlement. Then the nab CEO wrote a bulldust letter to the retail shareholders trying to justify his position as being in the best interest of retail shareholders. In the meantime his Institutional shareholder mates were able to slide their shares into the market place and pocket their profit on the difference between the spp price and the market price. Then to rub salt in the retail shareholder wounds the nab raises more money through the issue of hybrid securities. They could have avoided the debt (fees and interest) by taking up the full retail shareholders spp applications. I will vote against their re-election and in favour of the election of the independent nominee. nab needs a good kick in the **** imo.


----------



## stl_08

why are there so many hatters out there for mqg?
i remember when it was at 18bucks and every1 was saying its going to go bellow a buck, those of us who got in at 15-20 are enjoying our profit now,


----------



## nulla nulla

stl_08 said:


> why are there so many hatters out there for mqg?
> i remember when it was at 18bucks and every1 was saying its going to go bellow a buck, those of us who got in at 15-20 are enjoying our profit now,




Probably people that don't hold shares in mqg. Jealousy possibly? Some of the newspaper columnist are over the top also.


----------



## MOSSuMS

Anyone know why this thread doesn't appear in the alphabetical listings in the i-p forum when sorted by thread name? Seems like MQG is missing in action (not between MPO and MRO, where I would expect to see it), which is a worry being a holder! A search finds it though...

Now as for the shares performance, I averaged down and kept the faith, so am happy with the bounce so far, if not yet making any real money. Should have been an active traider and stopped out, then got back in as it made a few higher highs. Note to self - it is TIMING, not just TIME IN.


----------



## Macquack

MOSSuMS said:


> Anyone know why this thread doesn't appear in the alphabetical listings in the i-p forum when sorted by thread name?




You probably searched posts in the last month. There were no posts on MQG in the last month.................


----------



## nulla nulla

Got hammered again today. No news that I could see that warranted a reversal. If anything their application of the cash pool in acquisitions would indicate prospects for future earnings from wealth management??????????


----------



## Boggo

Signs of a new life emerging perhaps, nice close with an increase in volume today ??

(click to expand)


----------



## nulla nulla

It has been suggested in the press that the changes Barak Obama wants to inflict on the US Banks may force some of them to relocate off-shore. Will this make MQG a take over target?


----------



## skc

nulla nulla said:


> It has been suggested in the press that the changes Barak Obama wants to inflict on the US Banks may force some of them to relocate off-shore. Will this make MQG a take over target?




I'd be surprised if MQG becomes a takeover target.

The assets of MQG are the people. And the typical loyalty of these deal makers and shakers are close to non-existent. There is no stopping an executive director taking his team of 8 to a rival the day after the takeover, and after they cash in on their options thanks to the change of control clause.


----------



## surfingman

Any thoughts technically on MQG?

They have been plummeting 2 of the last 3 trading days around 6% down each day, with a report from Mac today stating that they have lost 18 Million in Assets Under Management due to MAP, profit forecast of $1 billion for the year.

The movement today drops around 1 billion from the Market Cap!

I note that there is good support shown at $45 with a double bottom in place from November, December.

A double top recently at $53, so where to from here?

Big Charts MQG Chart Here

I disclose I am short with a few $45 put warrants Feb 25 Exp which I bought when price was $52.


----------



## surfingman

I closed half the position today and I am free carried with the rest, hoping for some bad news from the jobs report but wasn't to be.

My hope for a good fall could be government debt related, waiting patiently!


----------



## ROE

nulla nulla said:


> It has been suggested in the press that the changes Barak Obama wants to inflict on the US Banks may force some of them to relocate off-shore. Will this make MQG a take over target?




MQG got nothing special, they was in a unique position before the GFC with 

their satellite funds, now all that is gone all they have now is just an investment bank stuff 

and pretty new to the game in term of their history and place in the world....they still have a lot to catch up to the like of Goldman Sach


----------



## nulla nulla

It seems that Obamma may be more conciliatory to the US investment banks and their need to move offshore to escape his initial draconian changes may be passing. 
I doubt that any corporation would be interested in mounting a take over of mqg, given the complexity of their structure and the allegedly unfathomable means by which they determine their net worth.
Non the less, the appear to generate huge income stream and know how to make money. The impending sale of the management rights to mof and mcw a case in point expected to generate somewhere arround $500million. 
$45.00 does look like a support line.


----------



## kevien

Am I the only one holding this stock??

pretty bad feeling and hold in loss....

Apprantly the last earning brief is not impressive...


----------



## cutz

kevien said:


> Am I the only one holding this stock??
> 
> pretty bad feeling and hold in loss....
> 
> Apprantly the last earning brief is not impressive...




Personally i'm hoping this stock takes another beating or rallys hard, don't like where it's sitting at the moment.

Kevien,

MQG has had a history of volatility, this one certainly needs stops in place or cheap put option hedges.


----------



## Julia

MQG will probably always be a volatile stock.  Perhaps not one to hold if you get nervous during the dips.


----------



## Vulture

I dont hold, but i know of a little entity purchase which is most likely to occur within the next 18 months that is particularly suited to MQG (No gaurantees) DYOR. But I'm just waiting for a nice little dip, so that i can dig my hands in.


----------



## kevien

sorry, what is DYOR?

I am a newbie...

It seems the price action is still weak.

But all the major US banks are doing well recently.

50.5 seems to be a resistance this moment.


----------



## Julia

kevien said:


> sorry, what is DYOR?



"D.Y.O.R."    means   -  Do Your Own Research.
There are lots of acronyms which you will soon get used to.


----------



## kevien

Thanks. Hopefully I will pick up.

Financials got smashed....

Not so good for MQG, but MQG was appointed as the leading advisory for chinese bank, which should be positive news.


----------



## ChilliBlue

kevien said:


> Am I the only one holding this stock??
> 
> pretty bad feeling and hold in loss....
> 
> Apprantly the last earning brief is not impressive...




I was fortunate to buy a few cents off the lowest point - hindsight should have purchased more.

At the time it was an amount that I was happy to lose and it paid off.

I like the stock and like the way the company is run and will continue to hold the small paid off parcel that I hold.


----------



## babka

Hi Chilli Blue, atm I am, too, in red. I am convinced that MQG will surprise us all, maybe not now, or tomorrow, but I am holding for the next year. I hope I am right. Four analysts (Morgan, City, etc.) are having a target price around $56-59. So hold tight if you have the confidence. I remember a few years ago there were some people who had been "predicting" the SP value to be down to $1, and than to $8. I think that they had some hidden agenda, something like sour grapes.


----------



## glendaw101

I am getting very nervous.

MACQUARIE Group chairman David Clarke has slashed his private interest in the nation's largest investment bank by almost 80 per cent after dumping more than $9.3 million worth of the company's shares last week. 
Source; News.com.au


----------



## two up

Hi glendaw101 - couldn't pick that info on David Clarke up on your news.com sight. Any other details??


----------



## warthogjump

*MQG - Macquarie Bank*

I've noticed MQG has been going down on the dumps with its share price. Anyone know why and if it will pick up?


----------



## bloomy88

*Re: MQG - Macquarie Bank*



warthogjump said:


> I've noticed MQG has been going down on the dumps with its share price. Anyone know why and if it will pick up?




Looks like it could be prolonged weakness from the profit downgrade issued in September. According to to Commsec, MQG is currently priced with a forward p/e of under 11. This is below the the average yearly p/e of MQG for the past decade. Hopefully, this will translate to an increase in the SP in the near future, but I think this will strongly depend on the strength of the global markets....


----------



## kevinkawahleung

All Quiet in the Western Front 

There is not much posting here


----------



## kevinkawahleung

*Re: MQG - Macquarie Bank*



bloomy88 said:


> Looks like it could be prolonged weakness from the profit downgrade issued in September. According to to Commsec, MQG is currently priced with a forward p/e of under 11. This is below the the average yearly p/e of MQG for the past decade. Hopefully, this will translate to an increase in the SP in the near future, but I think this will strongly depend on the strength of the global markets....





Should the P/E ratio start to expand in the expectation of rising inflation ?


----------



## robusta

*Re: MQG - Macquarie Bank*



kevinkawahleung said:


> Should the P/E ratio start to expand in the expectation of rising inflation ?




Not so sure about inflation, I would like to see rising profit and ROE before I would look at MQG


----------



## nomore4s

Nice breakout on MQG last week, going okay today as well but will see where it closes.


----------



## skc

nomore4s said:


> Nice breakout on MQG last week, going okay today as well but will see where it closes.




Pretty strong resistance at $40.50-$40.80 from back in June/July. 

Raced ahead of the XFJ by a good 5% so wouldn't surprise me to see it stall or retest $38 before moving higher.


----------



## Tyler Durden

Any theories as to the recent jump?


----------



## Greedy_Kev

Tyler Durden said:


> Any theories as to the recent jump?




Well US is starting to recover, maybe its also because now that MQG has gas in US which is in competition with gas in QLD, but this is all just speculative,  i can't figure out any solid fundamentals reason too, thus i'm selling up some of my MQG soon.

also today is now the fifth day of gains, investors should be looking to be collecting soon


----------



## nomore4s

Greedy_Kev said:


> Well US is starting to recover, maybe its also because now that MQG has gas in US which is in competition with gas in QLD, but this is all just speculative,  i can't figure out any solid fundamentals reason too, thus i'm selling up some of my MQG soon.
> 
> also today is now the fifth day of gains, investors should be looking to be collecting soon




Technically MQG is looking pretty good atm and I think we could see a sustained trend over the next few months back towards $50 pending market conditions of course and the resistance at $45ish. How it reacts on the next move down will be interesting, if it can form a nice tight consolidation pattern above $40 I'll be extremely happy but I'm not sure it will.

If I was an investor I personally would not be selling out right now but if I was a short term trader I might be looking at taking some profits shortly.


----------



## Greedy_Kev

Hey i'm pretty happy with my sell, as i was saying people would be taking profits  but i think MQG will move up soon too.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Tyler Durden said:


> Any theories as to the recent jump?




Any theories as to todays large move down?


----------



## Greedy_Kev

GumbyLearner said:


> Any theories as to todays large move down?




as i was saying two days ago, people are collecting.


----------



## nomore4s

nomore4s said:


> How it reacts on the next move down will be interesting, if it can form a nice tight consolidation pattern above $40 I'll be extremely happy but I'm not sure it will.




Playing out okay atm, nice consolidation in play just need a break out through $42 now


----------



## yusufn93

Closed today at $32.70, anyone think MQG is undervalued?

I've been trading it up and down between 32.70-36.10 since March. Its the only share I've traded so far (just starting out) and have had relative success predicting the short term trend about (about 15%)

Im looking to go long term on MQG however at around $32 a share, however recent events in the market make me think that may not be a good idea, so who thinks MQG is over or undervalued?

Cheers


----------



## ricee007

Just looking at what profit/dividend I expect... I can't see the current price being fair. I think MQG is significantly undervalued. It is the stock that is most predominant in my portfolio (followed by ANZ), so I won't be adding to my collection... but, if I was underweight in it, I would be at this price.

If they maintain dividends, as they have for the last 2 years, it is a 6% dividend yield.


This is not 'outstanding'... but the capital gain potential of MQG is outstanding.

They didn't sell assets through the GFC (well, perhaps spun a satellite out? Not sure. At any rate), they purchased assets... and they still are (Royal Adelaide Hospital partnership, USA wealth assets, are two recent ones that come to mind).

Even though there core businesses aren't as profitable anymore... we *will* see a return to the same level of profitability --> probably with a slower long-term growth rate than was expected.... but, actual profitability, $ for $, will return -> even on a per share basis.

From ComSec:
	EPS(c)	PE	Growth
Year Ending 30-03-12	327.7	10.0	18.8%
Year Ending 30-03-13	375.3	8.7	14.5%

Expecting growth rate of 19 and 15%....... to give a current year PE ratio of 10, and a next year PE ratio of 8.7.

Yes, a nextyear PE ratio of 8.7, with a stock that is expected to grow by 14.5% next year.

With an analyst upgrade 60 days ago.

With 10 positive surprises, and 4 negative surprises (since 1998).

With a 1.7 analyst recommendation (1 being the highest, 5 being the lowest). (only 3 analysts, but 2 of them have it as a strong buy).

Yea, I see mostly good news.


----------



## skyQuake

yusufn93 said:


> Closed today at $32.70, anyone think MQG is undervalued?
> 
> I've been trading it up and down between 32.70-36.10 since March. Its the only share I've traded so far (just starting out) and have had relative success predicting the short term trend about (about 15%)
> 
> Im looking to go long term on MQG however at around $32 a share, however recent events in the market make me think that may not be a good idea, so who thinks MQG is over or undervalued?
> 
> Cheers



Macq got cut to sell by citi today -M&A fee generation is way behind rivals, and the other divisions are looking not that good too


----------



## nulla nulla

Never under-estimate mqg, never! 

They are incredibly diverse. One of Australia's biggest beef producers at one end of their business, to operators of distressed assets bought at the nadir of the gfc like the Ford Finance Vehicle Finance/lease book at the other end. 

Sure, mergers and acquisitions have been light on the ground recently but that is only one of their tenticles. No doubt they will profit from any asset swap being considered by MAP atm. 

Personally, I use them as a barometer of the market. If their price is going up, the market is becoming more receptive to risk. If their price is contracting, the market is becoming adverse to risk. DYOR but never under estimate mqg. imo of course


----------



## tinhat

nulla nulla said:


> Never under-estimate mqg, never!
> 
> They are incredibly diverse. One of Australia's biggest beef producers at one end of their business,




So what? AAC is Australia's biggest beef producer and look at its performance.


----------



## kid hustlr

Newbie here - my first post actually

The ASX 200 was up big today whilst MQG was lagging all day until very late in the day where the share price jumped significantly, almost 2%, putting it back into the positive.

Do you guys every read anything from a quick jump like this? Is this more common than I'm aware of?


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> Newbie here - my first post actually
> 
> The ASX 200 was up big today whilst MQG was lagging all day until very late in the day where the share price jumped significantly, almost 2%, putting it back into the positive.
> 
> Do you guys every read anything from a quick jump like this? Is this more common than I'm aware of?




There was a somewhat pointless story this morning that might explain the drop in MQG share price.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/macquarie-us-executives-jump-ship-20110629-1gpxd.html

No idea as to the bounce. But random fluctuations do happen rather regularly with many stocks.


----------



## McLovin

skc said:


> There was a somewhat pointless story this morning that might explain the drop in MQG share price.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/macquarie-us-executives-jump-ship-20110629-1gpxd.html
> 
> No idea as to the bounce. But random fluctuations do happen rather regularly with many stocks.




I'm not sure that story is completely without merit. Macquarie built itself up by being "the millionaires' factory", it's ability to hire and retain the best staff by paying top dollar was key to it's success in the noughties. I don't think MQG is finished, but its not a positive sign when it can't retain probably its most valuable asset.


----------



## Toothpic44

Encountered good review on MQG the other day.

http://austocks.wordpress.com/2011/08/15/macquarie-group-mqg/


----------



## NewTrade

This stock is actually in my watchlist but I have no bought into it before. Lately it is has been excessively volatile. I believe it was last monday where its low was momentarily 21.93 and a week later it closes at 25.09. So over a week roughly 3.16. with my current expendature I could have possiblely afforded around 200 shares so a rough $600 week is quite excellent in my opinion.

As for where it stands now in terms of short term I don't really know. All I can see is the Stochastics indicating the stock has been heavily bought while the MACD is hovering over the zero-point on consistant price to volume, so no false indicator there.


----------



## Tyler Durden

IMO this seems to float along with whatever the current mood is towards the whole Greece debt default thing - so I was wondering, how would I go abouts finding out just exactly how much exposure MQG has to the Euro?


----------



## Mr Editor

Tyler Durden said:


> IMO this seems to float along with whatever the current mood is towards the whole Greece debt default thing - so I was wondering, how would I go abouts finding out just exactly how much exposure MQG has to the Euro?




See this image:
http://austocks.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/operating-income-by-region1.png


----------



## Tyler Durden

Mr Editor said:


> See this image:
> http://austocks.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/operating-income-by-region1.png




Thanks, very helpful!


----------



## notting

Lot of volume as it flopped past $24


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

We could be looking at another BNB here folks.

Lower lows and lower highs.







gg


----------



## Chasero

Garpal Gumnut said:


> We could be looking at another BNB here folks.
> 
> Lower lows and lower highs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gg




Really doubt it.

They threw the Macquarie model out the window and cashed up their balance sheet post GFC...


----------



## McLovin

Chasero said:


> Really doubt it.
> 
> They threw the Macquarie model out the window and cashed up their balance sheet post GFC...




I agree. There balance sheet is actually in pretty decent shape. The SP fall is really more about facing the new reality that MQG is not the mint it once was.


----------



## notting

I would posit that it was a reaction to the Goldman headline. People expecting a big financial tank tonight over that. MQG is a much better model than gold men for the current climate!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> We could be looking at another BNB here folks.
> 
> Lower lows and lower highs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gg






Chasero said:


> Really doubt it.
> 
> They threw the Macquarie model out the window and cashed up their balance sheet post GFC...






McLovin said:


> I agree. There balance sheet is actually in pretty decent shape. The SP fall is really more about facing the new reality that MQG is not the mint it once was.






notting said:


> I would posit that it was a reaction to the Goldman headline. People expecting a big financial tank tonight over that. MQG is a much better model than gold men for the current climate!




Just looking at the chart, though, it's gone from close to $100 to $24 in 4 years.

I reckon if it dips below $17, the '08 lows it is in real strife, no matter what the balance sheet purports.

Technically it is in huge strife.

gg


----------



## McLovin

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just looking at the chart, though, it's gone from close to $100 to $24 in 4 years.
> 
> I reckon if it dips below $17, the '08 lows it is in real strife, no matter what the balance sheet purports.
> 
> Technically it is in huge strife.
> 
> gg




On a global basis, they're doing about average, even GS is still off 60% from its '07 high. B&B they are not. For one thing B&B wasn't a bank like MQG is. The thing that saved MQG in the depths of the GFC was being able to transform their CMT into a bank account so they could bring all that cash on to their balance sheet.


----------



## iced earth

In a weekly chart, price touches the blue dotted line which acts as resistance line(this line was the support line but when passed down , now is the resistance and the recent upward might be just a pullback) . also 20EMA and Momentum 0 could be considered as resistance level.




But in daily chart, there is a possibility of Head and Shoulders pattern, but 1st we should see the right shoulder and then the neck line should be passed up with a good volume then , then the target could be around 30.00


----------



## Mr Editor

Thanks to all you guys who posted the charts above. I didn't notice the H&S pattern on the daily candlesticks, but I will keep an eye out for support around $22.

I am bullish on the underlying fundamentals over the long run but am indifferent towards the share price fluctuations in the short-term. Don't take my word for it though; do your own research.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Mr Editor said:


> Thanks to all you guys who posted the charts above. I didn't notice the H&S pattern on the daily candlesticks, but I will keep an eye out for support around $22.
> 
> I am bullish on the underlying fundamentals over the long run but am indifferent towards the share price fluctuations in the short-term. Don't take my word for it though; do your own research.




I'd hold your buying atm, it's closed yesterday near the lows on higher volume. 

An interesting fall from grace over the last few years.

gg


----------



## notting

Profits down 24% ish. 305mil against expected 325mil.
Lowest ROE since IPO!!
Then they announce a 800mil buy back.
Gosh, must have planned that prior to yesterdays rally in anticipation of a smack down!!
I'm concerned about how much investing they have done in USA with Aus $ shooting the lights out last night.
Can't wait to see what it does today.


----------



## VSntchr

notting said:


> Profits down 24% ish. 305mil against expected 325mil.
> Lowest ROE since IPO!!
> Then they announce a 800mil buy back.
> Gosh, must have planned that prior to yesterdays rally in anticipation of a smack down!!
> I'm concerned about how much investing they have done in USA with Aus $ shooting the lights out last night.
> Can't wait to see what it does today.




my shins are showing with these shorts i have on.


----------



## notting

VSntchr said:


> my shins are showing with these shorts i have on.




I'll pray for you.


----------



## sammy84

notting said:


> Profits down 24% ish. 305mil against expected 325mil.
> Lowest ROE since IPO!!
> Then they announce a 800mil buy back.
> Gosh, must have planned that prior to yesterdays rally in anticipation of a smack down!!
> I'm concerned about how much investing they have done in USA with Aus $ shooting the lights out last night.
> Can't wait to see what it does today.




Price has fallen around 50% from the Jan 2011 highs...this profit was drop and truly factored in. MQG might actually rally today.

I wouldn't be in a rush to short this stock near GFC lows.


----------



## VSntchr

sammy84 said:


> Price has fallen around 50% from the Jan 2011 highs...this profit was drop and truly factored in. MQG might actually rally today.
> 
> I wouldn't be in a rush to short this stock near GFC lows.




my statement actually referred to the fact im getting near to selling my shorts...guess I worded it kinda funny..have been short mqg a while now..


----------



## Chasero

notting said:


> Profits down 24% ish. 305mil against expected 325mil.
> Lowest ROE since IPO!!
> Then they announce a 800mil buy back.
> Gosh, must have planned that prior to yesterdays rally in anticipation of a smack down!!
> I'm concerned about how much investing they have done in USA with Aus $ shooting the lights out last night.
> Can't wait to see what it does today.




Up 5% ish. Nice timign too with record date coming up.


----------



## sammy84

VSntchr said:


> my statement actually referred to the fact im getting near to selling my shorts...guess I worded it kinda funny..have been short mqg a while now..




Sorry mis-read. At least you've been in it for a while so I assume there would be some profit. Good luck.


----------



## VSntchr

sammy84 said:


> Sorry mis-read. At least you've been in it for a while so I assume there would be some profit. Good luck.




Cheers. Most of the profit gone the last 2 days..but hey..its its my play account so Im not too worried..


----------



## Mr Editor

Does anyone understand exactly why management plans to buy back 10% of outstanding shares while cutting the interim dividend to 65 cents per share? I'm still trying to wrap my head around the logic.


----------



## McLovin

Mr Editor said:


> Does anyone understand exactly why management plans to buy back 10% of outstanding shares while cutting the interim dividend to 65 cents per share? I'm still trying to wrap my head around the logic.




There appears to be no money in the franking account. At least by doing a buyback they can give an unfranked component and capital (usually creating a capital loss) component. Super funds love that.


----------



## iced earth

TA of MQG 29/10/2011:

In this picture we can see that the green resistance line is passed up. 





If the price will manage to be closed higher Monday we would say that the neckline of the Head & Shoulders been passed up successfully and the target could be around $30.00. Also the volume is higher which is a very important when share passes up the neckline.




In a longer term the neckline is part of the resistance line (green) which should be passed up successfully for having the upward trend.


----------



## iced earth

TA of MQG(MACQUARIE GROUP) - 03-11-11
===============================
Unfortunately the price could not pass up the red resistance line successfully.




Now the price has reached the support line and tomorrow we should see, if this support line would work or more fall should be anticipated


----------



## notting

Big selling volume just went through at 22.9 to 22.8


----------



## matthewdean

Hello MQG holders,

I'm interested to see what Technical Analysis others may have about the current situation of MQG.

A nice consolidation area has been formed for a short while now and is now showing some strength in a positive direction.






It seems as a little breakout occurred at the level of $25.00 last week on some higher volume followed by a short pullback on dropping volume. The MACD showed some slight bullish signals and yesterdays price action could indicate a rise is due.

_Paper Trade:
Buy: $25.430
Stop: $22.220
Price Target: $35.120
Reward Risk: 3:1_

*Please note I do not hold this stock, I have posted purely for education and learning purposes.*

Good luck.


----------



## matthewdean

matthewdean said:


> Hello MQG holders,
> 
> I'm interested to see what Technical Analysis others may have about the current situation of MQG.
> 
> A nice consolidation area has been formed for a short while now and is now showing some strength in a positive direction.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It seems as a little breakout occurred at the level of $25.00 last week on some higher volume followed by a short pullback on dropping volume. The MACD showed some slight bullish signals and yesterdays price action could indicate a rise is due.
> 
> _Paper Trade:
> Buy: $25.430
> Stop: $22.220
> Price Target: $35.120
> Reward Risk: 3:1_
> 
> *Please note I do not hold this stock, I have posted purely for education and learning purposes.*
> 
> Good luck.




Well the fundamentals didn't help and the breakout now looks more of a fade-out.


----------



## Tyler Durden

Relevant:



> MACQUARIE GROUP is expected to post its lowest profit in more than seven years this morning as a prolonged slump in the pace of deal making and stalled market turnover has hurt its investment banking arm.
> 
> After axing 1000 jobs over the past year, Macquarie's chief executive, Nicholas Moore, is expected to accelerate plans for a further round of cost cuts. More jobs are likely to be axed from the securities division over coming months.
> 
> In a recent update Mr Moore warned the investment bank's profit was likely to fall 25 per cent for this year. This implies a full-year profit of $720 million - profit levels recorded in 2005.
> 
> Macquarie is among investment banks around the world struggling to boost earnings as turmoil on markets saps investor confidence and demand for advisory and brokerage services.
> 
> Mr Moore outlined plans for a share buyback last October as part of efforts to put a floor under the company's sagging share price. But the buyback, which could reach as much as $800 million, largely depends on whether it decides to proceed with an acquisition.
> 
> In recent weeks Macquarie has been linked to acquiring ING's Asian-based asset management arm. Any deal could be worth as much as $575 million.
> 
> Even with the subdued market environment, gains in Macquarie's shares since the start of the year could also result in the bank pushing back the start date for its share buyback. It has previously said it would start the program during the second half of 2012.
> 
> Analysts, including Scott Manning of JP Morgan, have raised doubts whether the program will move ahead at all. If it does, Macquarie is likely to proceed with the program at a cautious pace.
> 
> Its shares have jumped 19 per cent this year as investors have welcomed its commitments to boost shareholder returns. Macquarie shares rose yesterday to $28.43.
> 
> The Deutsche Bank analyst James Freeman expects Macquarie's profit could return to the $1 billion mark next year, depending on some recovery in global investment markets.
> 
> ''If current weak trading conditions continued into financial 2012, we would expect downside risk to our forecasts,'' he said.




http://www.smh.com.au/business/more-jobs-on-line-as-macquarie-cuts-costs-20120426-1xo2b.html


----------



## Joules MM1

here's a curious email rec'd this morning:



> PetroFrontier Corp. announces termination of bought deal financing by Macquarie
> 
> CALGARY, July 11, 2012 /CNW/ - (TSX-V: PFC) - PetroFrontier Corp. ("PetroFrontier") announces that it has received a notice of termination from Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Inc. ("Macquarie") terminating its obligations pursuant to the Underwriting Agreement made effective June 20, 2012 (the "Underwriting Agreement"), whereby Macquarie had agreed to purchase on a bought deal basis 15,000,000 subscription receipts at a price of $1.00 per subscription receipt.  The notice of termination received from Macquarie did not provide the reason for Macquarie terminating its obligations under the Underwriting Agreement.  Management of PetroFrontier is of the view that Macquarie did not have a valid legal reason to terminate the Underwriting Agreement and PetroFrontier is currently reviewing it options in this regard.




no reason that anyone i've spoken to can figure what would make MQG make that decision on the basis of PFC, STO or BKP drilling in the Georgina Basin.......so what's up chaps? running a little short on cashola ?


----------



## pixel

Looking at the chart, I'd wait for MQG to lift above, say, $26 even before I'd put it on a "may buy" list.


----------



## db94

how hasnt anyone said anything about MQG lately!? lol its been firing lately... gone from around $36-37 to $45 in the space of about 2 weeks. been doing paper trades on it and tls, if only i had real money


----------



## Tyler Durden

This nearly hit $50 today.

No announcements either.


----------



## Tyler Durden

ASX code will be MQGDA until 31/12/13.


----------



## clinta44

anyone else think the SYD transaction is dodgey for shareholders?

Personally I don't like being lumped with a stock I would never invest in, when I do get the stock I will have to off load it, but the market will be flooded...

Mean while I now have 5% less stock!


----------



## Tyler Durden

Has this disappeared from anyone else's portfolio?


----------



## Valued

I had a brief look at this one. I don't understand why shareholders are having their property removed (their equity stake in the company) and replaced with something else. If you owned something and then someone said they are going to take part of it away and give you something else instead and you have no choice, I would be disappointed. From a fundamental perspective, I wouldn't feel like much of an owner if my ownership was forcibly reduced and put into some other company. You think you own a bank when you actually own an airport. Wtf? (no not WTF, that dropped 30%)

I have never been a shareholder in MQG.


----------



## clinta44

Tyler Durden said:


> Has this disappeared from anyone else's portfolio?




it will be like this for the consolidation period should be back to normal in the new year minus 5% of your stock.


----------



## Sharkman

Tyler Durden said:


> Has this disappeared from anyone else's portfolio?




it certainly disappeared pronto from mine last month, wasn't too keen to take some piddly little SYD position onto the books, along with the fiddly annoying tax treatment that goes along with it, so i sold it off and am punting on a pullback to maybe buy back in after the distro is over

unless you meant disappeared literally? in which case then depending on your broker it may have disappeared from watchlists etc. because it's on deferred settlement so it will be listed under the ticker MQGDA until early jan


----------



## George Washingto

clinta44 said:


> anyone else think the SYD transaction is dodgey for shareholders?
> 
> Personally I don't like being lumped with a stock I would never invest in, when I do get the stock I will have to off load it, but the market will be flooded...
> 
> Mean while I now have 5% less stock!




By owning MQG you are being 'lumped' with SYD whether you like it or not. You either own it indirectly through your MQG shares, or directly through actual SYD shares when they pay them out.

By paying out the shares it gives shareholders like you the option to sell if you want and it means that you aren't investing 5% of your money into SYD when you actually want to put it into MQG, on the flip side I'm happy to add more SYD to my existing holding.

Can't see how this can possibly be a bad thing.


----------



## notting

George Washingto said:


> Can't see how this can possibly be a bad thing.




Especially since MQG share price has hardly missed a beat  after offloading this asset to you!  Win for all.


----------



## piggybank

P&F Daily Update:-


----------



## qldfrog

Have we really had no post on Macquarie since 2014?
in any case an article after the AFR revelations:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/why-should-taxpayers-guarantee-macquaries-junk-bond-binge-20160324-gnqs13.html
beware


----------



## notting

MQG - A good one to whatch to see where   overall sentiment is.
So far it's held it's 61.8 retrace since previous wave down.


----------



## notting

Started happy fading away ever since, market sentiment?
Big short squeeze finished?


----------



## rnr

Just my take on where MQG could be heading over the next few weeks.


----------



## Redbeard

My question, though it doesnt really matter, goes back to the MQG/SYD split in Dec13/Jan14..  
I was looking at all my statements and the Shares in MQG reduced on Dec 23rd 2013 but the new shares in SYD were not allocated to me until Jan 13th 2014..

My question is this ....  Who "OWNED" Sydney Airport for those 20 days?


----------



## notting

Market is having a couple of positive days and the world seems happy again that Janet is still a dove.
However it always troubles me when big mac does not show so much enthusiasm about the stuff the market is getting happy about.


----------



## notting

Seems to be trading in sympathy with the noble GS rather than as an ausi bank.
I don't think MQG structure should be so closely pegged, worth filling up on the way to reporting if markets remain dull to positive.


----------



## Redbeard

98.75 today,,   above the previous high in May 2007 of 97.10...    
is it going to crack the tonne?


----------



## bigdog

The Macquarie Bank has announced that from January 1, 2018, its cash management account interest rate (which many pensioners use for monthly superannuation payments) will be nil on the first $4999 and only 1.3% on the balance.

squeeze the customers to maximize its profits

I have one of these accounts


----------



## ntrader

What a nutbar stock to be in.
Will not sell off regardless this is one to watch for an asx market that's turning bearish.
If it's not selling off then bull trend STILL in play !!! (ASX)

Congratulations to anyone that has held this one, I know a lady that has held since the last dip to 87.00


----------



## Redbeard

ntrader said:


> What a nutbar stock to be in.
> Will not sell off regardless this is one to watch for an asx market that's turning bearish.
> If it's not selling off then bull trend STILL in play !!! (ASX)
> 
> Congratulations to anyone that has held this one, I know a lady that has held since the last dip to 87.00



I bought in during the GFC aftermath in 2009 , that was a nervous phone call!


----------



## ntrader

Redbeard said:


> I bought in during the GFC aftermath in 2009 , that was a nervous phone call!



Well done Redbar, my question to you is "when"
When does someone like you sitting on what is a pretty penny sells ?
Congrats to buying when it was the worst perceived time to buy (wink)


----------



## Redbeard

Good question ntrader, also involves finger biting.   For the MQR probably never. The amount I get in dividends cannot be matched by anything else. Based on my original investment the "return" is wonderful.  Yes the shares have gone up but I am still getting a decent return on the current value.  
If that situation changes then I would consider alternatives.  One other scenario is if the shares go up so much that they become too big a percentage in the portfolio.      
Which brings me to....
In the case of shares like Cochlear or Aristocrat, the share price keeps going up but the dividend returns are not matching the increases (FYI, COH never did).  So in those cases its more a case of pick a target figure and take the money when its right to do so (ie Tax implications).  They might go up and up more but with both of those there is such a large factor of "future" earnings which makes them very volatile. So they may gain 10% in three months but they can and have lost 15% in a week.
So , in answer , probably when its Tax effective is the main driver,  ie low income for this year, want to get rid of CF losses or sell non performers at a loss.


----------



## ntrader

Redbeard said:


> Good question ntrader, also involves finger biting.   For the MQR probably never. The amount I get in dividends cannot be matched by anything else. Based on my original investment the "return" is wonderful.  Yes the shares have gone up but I am still getting a decent return on the current value.
> If that situation changes then I would consider alternatives.  One other scenario is if the shares go up so much that they become too big a percentage in the portfolio.
> Which brings me to....
> In the case of shares like Cochlear or Aristocrat, the share price keeps going up but the dividend returns are not matching the increases (FYI, COH never did).  So in those cases its more a case of pick a target figure and take the money when its right to do so (ie Tax implications).  They might go up and up more but with both of those there is such a large factor of "future" earnings which makes them very volatile. So they may gain 10% in three months but they can and have lost 15% in a week.
> So , in answer , probably when its Tax effective is the main driver,  ie low income for this year, want to get rid of CF losses or sell non performers at a loss.



Yes good case in point, was thinking technically chart wise but for yourself that makes alot of sense


----------



## notting

MQG appoints a woman as new CEO. Nup.


----------



## JTLP

notting said:


> MQG appoints a woman as new CEO. Nup.




Ummm? Can you explain why it’s a nope? You’re entitled to free speech, but by all reports she’s performed exceptionally well in her current remit and is more than deserving.


----------



## notting

I know she 'sounds' great.
I just don't have a good feeling about it at all.
MQG have always needed to be remarkably innovative and ruthless.
I didn't like the look of the last CBA guy either,







CBA alwyas had the traditional statesman like guy.  My instinct just said, 'mistake' It didn't go that well for them either.

This one for MQG just Nup!


----------



## Redbeard

notting said:


> MQG appoints a woman as new CEO. Nup.



Is She Scottish?  in which case it would be ok


----------



## kid hustlr

MQG starting to look enticing here. The big 4 got a big lift today on the back of the Westpac interest rate announcement which dragged the sector as a whole up. 

MQG now poised to break and continue what has been an incredible run.


----------



## sptrawler

Jeez another missed opportunity, I remember a couple of mates at work who had bought them, stressing when they went to $15. 
That must have been about 7 or 8 years ago, it just shows there is always opportunity, where there is risk.


----------



## peter2

Hey Kid, have you been reading my order book? I'm preparing to trade the BO and I've placed a few buy orders in the market hoping to buy MQG slightly cheaper. I'm using an iSL of 119.


----------



## kid hustlr

peter2 said:


> Hey Kid, have you been reading my order book? I'm preparing to trade the BO and I've placed a few buy orders in the market hoping to buy MQG slightly cheaper. I'm using an iSL of 119.




I saw you mentioned MQG the other day, I've actually had it on my watch list for a few weeks now. I don't love trading big cap stocks + the whole banking sector thing worries me a little however on the flip side it appears a good set up on paper and it has been an industry leader (reconsigning it plays a slightly different game to the big 4).

I much prefer playing the big caps as reversals/pull backs (dips in weekly trends) so we'll see how this goes


----------



## peter2

Like most of the market MQG dipped in the Sept - Dec18 selloff. Now it's back near yearly highs.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Taking on the big 4:


> Macquarie's mortgage portfolio of $48.6 billion was 11 per cent higher at the end of December compared to the previous quarter. The home loan book has grown by $14 billion over the past 18 months as mortgage brokers - who send Macquarie more than 90 per cent of its home loans - report approval times at least twice as fast as the industry average.





> Application volumes of $10.5 billion in the December quarter compare with $4.5 billion for the same quarter two years ago, helping to lift Macquarie's total market share of all mortgages to about 2.5 per cent.
> 
> But this is set to climb given it is now writing 7 per cent of all new home loans, and around 11 per cent of loans arranged by brokers.



.
and during the GFC, how good was that? Not.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Did anyone notice MQG today getting smashed down -12.8% today when the rest of the market and especially other financials were down way less than that?

I saw this in the news the other day:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...f-crude-trading-departs-sources-idUSKBN20Z3N9

March 12 







> NEW YORK (Reuters) - The global head of crude trading at Australia’s top investment bank Macquarie Group has left the firm, three sources familiar with the matter said.




So just a few days after the oil price crashes massively, the head of oil trading at Macquarie quits?

Then today, as the oil price trades down below those crash lows, MQG is getting hammered way more than the broad market.

I wonder if the market is sniffing out something about a trade that's going really badly against them? Enough for the head of oil trading to resign?


----------



## sptrawler

InsvestoBoy said:


> Did anyone notice MQG today getting smashed down -12.8% today when the rest of the market and especially other financials were down way less than that?
> 
> I saw this in the news the other day:
> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...f-crude-trading-departs-sources-idUSKBN20Z3N9
> 
> March 12
> 
> So just a few days after the oil price crashes massively, the head of oil trading at Macquarie quits?
> 
> Then today, as the oil price trades down below those crash lows, MQG is getting hammered way more than the broad market.
> 
> I wonder if the market is sniffing out something about a trade that's going really badly against them? Enough for the head of oil trading to resign?



$91 still way, way, way above the post GFC $15 level, obviously the market isn't as concerned this time around, well not yet.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

sptrawler said:


> $91 still way, way, way above the post GFC $15 level, obviously the market isn't as concerned this time around, well not yet.




I'm not suggesting GFC concern, just that the market might be sniffing some energy trade that went bad. Probably not enough to end the bank or whatever, but a bigger than expected hit?

MQG is a completely different entity from during the GFC, their business model is completely different now. I doubt they would see the same *80%* drop they saw again.


----------



## JTLP

InsvestoBoy said:


> I'm not suggesting GFC concern, just that the market might be sniffing some energy trade that went bad. Probably not enough to end the bank or whatever, but a bigger than expected hit?
> 
> MQG is a completely different entity from during the GFC, their business model is completely different now. I doubt they would see the same *80%* drop they saw again.




Yes. It would appear a little too serendipitous that the oil man leaves and the oil price crashes. Doesn’t take too many bad trades to get you dumped from the millionaires factory...


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Another day where some banks are down a little or even up, e.g. CBA -0.94%, BOQ +4.044% ...

MQG is trading down -12.88% as of writing!

Another day of oil market crash...

Doesn't seem like a coincidence...


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

The Old Factory; I was invited at one time.

So much talent; so much let go. Used to have geniuses there.

Maybe time for a short position on the old MAC😂!

Where is your Quant team, haha, scared:

A position of percentage that we can work out? Haha.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Chronos-Plutus said:


> The Old Factory; I was invited at one time.
> 
> So much talent; so much let go. Used to have geniuses there.
> 
> Maybe time for a short position on the old MAC😂!
> 
> Where is your Quant team, haha, scared:
> 
> A position of percentage that we can work out? Haha.
> View attachment 112391




Quants are cooked at MAC.

Let's see how close I get!

I say I get *within 30%* of the electoral college vote mapped at a *2 to 1 bet? 

Makes it fair!*

I think I will take the best bet at *2 to 1 *to say that Silver will move above USD$30.00 within 1 year.

*Your shareholders should be informed; HAHA; if we arrange such a bet.*


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

I am just mucking around with the bets: but I reckon I am better than all your MAC QUANTS with picking States:


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

notting said:


> I know she 'sounds' great.
> I just don't have a good feeling about it at all.
> MQG have always needed to be remarkably innovative and ruthless.
> I didn't like the look of the last CBA guy either,
> 
> View attachment 88567
> 
> 
> CBA alwyas had the traditional statesman like guy.  My instinct just said, 'mistake' It didn't go that well for them either.
> 
> This one for MQG just Nup!





The Old Guard at CBA: Ian and Ralph.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

You can just buy me a drink when I win; young MAC snappers.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Trump wins; and we got emotionally compromised MAC Quants it looks like; HAHA.

We can just leave at this.


----------



## divs4ever

GLENN STEVENS APPOINTED NEXT CHAIR OF MACQUARIE GROUP AND MACQUARIE BANK FOLLOWING PETER WARNE RETIREMENT, DIANE GRADY ANNOUNCES HER INTENTION TO RETIRE SYDNEY, 2 December 202

1 – Further to Peter Warne’s previously announced decision to retire by the 2022 Annual General Meeting, the Boards have resolved that Glenn Stevens be appointed as the next Chair of Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) (ASX: MQG; ADR: MQBKY) and Macquarie Bank Limited (MBL) (ASX: MBL).
 Mr Stevens’ appointment and Mr Warne’s retirement as a Voting Director on both boards will be effective in early May 2022, following the 2022 fullyear results announcement.
 Diane Grady, who has been a Voting Director of MGL and MBL for over 10 years, has also announced her intention to retire, effective after the Board meetings currently scheduled for 24 February 2022. Mr Warne has been Chair of the MGL and MBL boards since April 2016 and a director of both entities since 2007.

 Mr Stevens was appointed an Independent Voting Director of MGL and of MBL in November 2017, has chaired the Board Risk Committee since November 2019 and also serves as a member of the Board Audit and Board Nominating Committees.
 Ms Grady has been a director of MGL and MBL since May 2011 and is a member of the Board Governance and Compliance Committee, Board Nominating Committee, Board Remuneration Committee and Board Risk Committee. Ms Grady said, “It’s been a memorable eleven years and a real privilege to have been a Director of such an inspiring company.
 I have appreciated the opportunity to work with so many outstanding executives and Board members over the years and have been impressed by the quality of people at all levels and geographies in Macquarie. I am particularly proud of Macquarie’s purpose statement “to empower people to innovate and invest for a better future” and our core principles of “Opportunity, Accountability and Integrity” which continue to guide how the group does business.” 

Mr Warne said: “The Board thanks Diane for her important contribution and dedication to Macquarie over 10 years through a strong period of growth for the company. We very much valued Diane’s broad experience working with major listed companies with international businesses, as well as expertise in strategy and operations in the Asia Pacific region in particular.” In commenting on his decision to retire from the MGL and MBL boards and the appointment of Mr Stevens as the new Chair, Mr Warne said, “I have immensely enjoyed my time on the Macquarie boards, working alongside some incredibly talented people across both management and my non-executive colleagues. Over that time, I’m proud that the organisation has continued its strong growth trajectory, meeting broad areas of community need through different market cycles, not least over the last two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 I am pleased that the Boards have selected Mr Stevens as the next Chair, with his deep expertise in markets and economics after many years as a successful Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.” Mr Stevens commented: “Peter has been a committed and engaged Chair and board member for Macquarie over many years. He is well liked across the staff population and highly respected in the Australian and global business community. Peter has overseen a period of strong progress for Macquarie, including successful management transition, record profits and a robust response to recent global challenges. I’m honoured to have been asked by my colleagues to follow in Peter’s footsteps and look forward to working with the Boards, Shemara and the entire Macquarie team in the continued effort to meet client, investor, regulatory and community expectations.” Macquarie Group Limited 2 Mr Stevens worked at the highest levels of the Reserve Bank of Australia for 20 years and, as well as developing Australia’s successful inflation targeting framework for monetary policy, played a significant role in central banking internationally. He was Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia between 2006 and 2016.

 Mr Stevens has also made key contributions to a number of Australian and international boards and committees, including as chair of the Australian Council of Financial Regulators between 2006 and 2016, as a member of the Financial Stability Board and on a range of G20 committees, and as a current Board member of NSW Treasury Corporation. 

 DYOR

 i hold MQG ( 'free-carried ' )

 i missed this one yesterday ... is this a game changer  ?? 

 and will i regret  not bailing from MQG at recent $200+ highs


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Macquarie Group hit a record high of $211.73, and closed up 2.9 per cent to $211.34. The company is now worth $80.9 billion and by market capitalisation, it is now the third-largest bank in Australia, behind Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank.


----------



## JohnDe

Some thought that MQG share purchase plan was too high, I wonder what they think now.



> SPP (the SPP Shares) will be issued at $A191.28 per share






			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02459638-0SPUV5J4B0NFHTD2CO9F0GSB7I/pdf?access_token=0007yfTGKYDj8KMecPB3KPkFsfpE


----------



## divs4ever

am still holding   ( at no cash risk ) 

 but how high will it go  , sure it has had less recent headwinds than the other major banks  , 

 but what next  , will it circle the wagons and wait  , or force growth  hoping to grab market share ( and FUM )  from stressed rivals 

 take care   , although i have no idea how you 'nibble ' a $200 stock


----------



## divs4ever

JohnDe said:


> Some thought that MQG share purchase plan was too high, I wonder what they think now.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02459638-0SPUV5J4B0NFHTD2CO9F0GSB7I/pdf?access_token=0007yfTGKYDj8KMecPB3KPkFsfpE



 yep  , i absolutely thought that  ( and still do )  but then my av. SP was $26.76 ( while still carrying a bonus SYD share )

 true MQG  has been producing the returns ( compared to the peers ) but it was always perceived as a higher risk investment  before the Hayne Royal Commission ,

 i am very tempted to trim more ( than the 66% i have already sold down ) or even exit , but the  problem is where do i  park  another 6% of my portfolio  when i can't find a good home for the 5%  cash reserves , plus  i have with another 5% likely from take-over activity 

 very much like an embarrassing twist to TINA ( There Is No Alternative )


----------



## JohnDe

$211.73 - $191.28 = $20.45

A pretty decent return, for those that like to trade.


----------



## divs4ever

yes it was , but i am not normally agile enough to trade  , so that strategy never entered my mind 

  and at roughly $200 a share  i suspect many retail traders were frightened off as well  , especially when there is something like FMG to play with  , and arguably  the lesser 3 banks ( ANZ , WBC  and NAB ) must be tempting for some traders as well at current prices .


----------



## rnr

divs4ever said:


> yes it was , but i am not normally agile enough to trade  , so that strategy never entered my mind
> 
> and at roughly $200 a share  i suspect many retail traders were frightened off as well  , especially when there is something like FMG to play with  , and arguably  the lesser 3 banks ( ANZ , WBC  and NAB ) must be tempting for some traders as well at current prices .



So is that a go short from here?


----------



## divs4ever

i rarely flip ( or 'wash ' ) that is sell high re-buy low  , am not set up to short-sell or even trade options 

 now reasons to be cautious on MQG ... well MQG leases out a LOT of commercial aircraft , but all those lock-downs didn't cause a share-holder rout  , MQG  runs a few property trusts  and yet Evergrande ( and friends ) haven't ruffled a feather  , MQG  lend cash to gold miners in the form of gold hedging  and the shareholders seem unfazed  by the constant suppression of gold prices  ,  and i bet there are 4 or 5 more   i haven't spotted  but the MQG share price brushed off a recent capital raise  and climbed above $200 .

 i will NOT be shorting it  , but a brave trader  might find several angles a short-sell looks good from  ( like no Nick Moore  to calmly brush aside worries  of anything including Royal Commissions )


----------



## Dona Ferentes

MQG back through $200, up 3%

Macquarie Group chief executive Shemara Wikramanayake says improved overall market conditions in the three months ended December 31 have led to a “record quarter” for the group.

While the combined net profit contribution of the group’s annuity-style businesses was down on a year earlier, combined net profit for the markets-facing businesses was up “substantially” on the prior corresponding period.



> “_Improved overall market conditions have resulted in a record quarter for the group_,” said Ms Wikramanayake. “_We continue to maintain a cautious stance, with a conservative approach to capital, funding and liquidity that positions us well to respond to the current environment."_




_though there is no mention of forward guidance, nor quantifying what a _record quarter _constitutes._


----------



## divs4ever

the much larger presentation  has more numbers  , but i suppose the increase in AUM ( assets under management ) has them excited  , but i can't think why when SOME property prices are still climbing  and there is plenty of take-over activity 

 but maybe because others are  having  more stress  MQG is looking like a clean(er ) shirt in the laundry basket 

 am not  impressed by wobbly lines ( ~ )  surely they could have used UP or DOWN


----------



## JohnDe

"In the bear scenario, it says Macquarie could fall to $82.70 but in the bull scenario it could soar to $392.00."



			https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/macquarie-sells-itself-globally-as-a-green-bank-while-being-bolstered-by-a-lift-in-commodities/news-story/634e98d7b32a24270f5b78368e194ea3


----------



## divs4ever

if MQG were to go over $300 i would probably cease participating in the DRP 



 if it were to drop below $80   if would think carefully IF i would buy extras ( my av. SP is $26.76  )


----------



## JohnDe

divs4ever said:


> if MQG were to go over $300 i would probably cease participating in the DRP
> 
> 
> 
> if it were to drop below $80   if would think carefully IF i would buy extras ( my av. SP is $26.76  )




Nice, a very long time holder.


----------



## divs4ever

JohnDe said:


> Nice, a very long time holder.
> 
> 
> View attachment 137252



 i grabbed a parcel @ $20 neat back in September 2011 ( slid from  $31.93 in June 2011 )

 bizarrely i bought my cheapest parcel  in WBC  in August 2011  @ $19.90   ( yes i bought two even cheaper WBC parcels in 2020 )

 but let's say  in 2011 you could have bought both WBC and MQG for $20 a share  which was the better choice  'blue-chip ' or growth 

 this share trading thing isn't as easy as it looks


----------



## dyna

Never thought I'd ever own this ( always ) seemingly overpriced stock , but with an eye on the soaring $ A , I bought ten grand worth yesterday at ...jeebus !..$205.90 a pop , mainly as an easy, overseas market exposure , as they are hardly a " bank " anymore.

Could be yet another dumb move, but I 'll have a clearer idea about that when Macquarie next reports its latest earnings ,next month, I believe.


----------



## qldfrog

dyna said:


> Never thought I'd ever own this ( always ) seemingly overpriced stock , but with an eye on the soaring $ A , I bought ten grand worth yesterday at ...jeebus !..$205.90 a pop , mainly as an easy, overseas market exposure , as they are hardly a " bank " anymore.
> 
> Could be yet another dumb move, but I 'll have a clearer idea about that when Macquarie next reports its latest earnings ,next month, I believe.



first entry this morning at $207 for me too.trying to leverage less miserable than other australian factor


----------



## divs4ever

dyna said:


> Never thought I'd ever own this ( always ) seemingly overpriced stock , but with an eye on the soaring $ A , I bought ten grand worth yesterday at ...jeebus !..$205.90 a pop , mainly as an easy, overseas market exposure , as they are hardly a " bank " anymore.
> 
> Could be yet another dumb move, but I 'll have a clearer idea about that when Macquarie next reports its latest earnings ,next month, I believe.





 when the market melts down  MQG is seen as higher risk ( less likely to get a Federal Government  bail-out  , so is liable to drop heavily 

 in the 4 months between  June 2011 to September 2011   in was buying ( small parcels from  $31.93 down to $20 )

 as long as you are aware of such possibilities  you can tweak your strategy  , to get an extra edge 

 good luck


----------



## Dona Ferentes

_There must have been a lot of expectation built into MQG shareprice as the results today seem to have met with universal acclamation in the narratives, yet it tanked nearly 8%, to end the day at $186.90 (was holding well above $200 for all of April).

It was a bad day on the markets and some analysts think it is a late cycle flourish that won't be repeated. And the dividend was lower than some thought; hence the sell-off?_



> Macquarie did well out of the COVID-19 disruption to supply chains. Its commodities and global markets arm profited from the disruption to energy markets  and its Green Investment Group delivered $850 million in profits from riding the green transition.




Commodities and global markets was the standout division in 2022, with profits up 50 per cent to $3.89 billion, buoyed by the 32 per cent increase in operating income to $6.17 billion. The group’s private markets investments were positioned for a structural shift, in line with “_investors having growing amounts of savings and looking for places to invest [them] where they can get defensive, income-producing assets that also deliver a superior return to what they can get in fixed income and equities_."

Macquarie Capital delivered a net profit contribution of $2.4 billion, up 269 per cent, on significantly higher fees from M&A and DCM activities. Investment-related income was also sharply higher due to asset realisations in the green energy, technology and business services areas, as well as an increase in its private credit portfolio.

The banking and financial services division, which competes with the big four banks in the ultra-competitive home loans space, was up 30 per cent to $1.001 billion. Macquarie has outpaced the growth of its larger competitors over the past 12 months, to deliver strong growth in home loans.

International businesses made up 75 per cent of Macquarie’s total earnings, with the Americas contributing 48 per cent and Australia around a quarter, highlighting the strength of Macquarie’s geographical composition.

.......-..-.-.-.-.--.-...-.-.-.
MQG will pay a final dividend of *$3.50 a share,* 40 per cent franked, on 04 July, up from its interim dividend of $2.72, representing a payout ratio of 50 per cent.


----------



## peter2

This unusually large selloff interests me. As mentioned, their results were stunning. Records are hard to beat but this "bank" has such a diverse mix of activities and is extra keen to scrounge profits any way they can.

The current world events, conflict, uncertain economic conditions, oligarch sanctions, supply problems and huge volatility in the financial markets seem to be ideal conditions for a company I'd describe as "cunning as a dunny rat".


----------



## qldfrog

peter2 said:


> This unusually large selloff interests me. As mentioned, their results were stunning. Records are hard to beat but this "bank" has such a diverse mix of activities and is extra keen to scrounge profits any way they can.
> 
> The current world events, conflict, uncertain economic conditions, oligarch sanctions, supply problems and huge volatility in the financial markets seem to be ideal conditions for a company I'd describe as "cunning as a dunny rat".



The reason i first bought this week.
If the Reset happens, they will be among the few aussies to benefit.
So medium term should be ok


----------



## divs4ever

Dona Ferentes said:


> _There must have been a lot of expectation built into MQG shareprice as the results today seem to have met with universal acclamation in the narratives, yet it tanked nearly 8%, to end the day at $186.90 (was holding well above $200 for all of April).
> 
> It was a bad day on the markets and some analysts think it is a late cycle flourish that won't be repeated. And the dividend was lower than some thought; hence the sell-off?_
> 
> 
> 
> Commodities and global markets was the standout division in 2022, with profits up 50 per cent to $3.89 billion, buoyed by the 32 per cent increase in operating income to $6.17 billion. The group’s private markets investments were positioned for a structural shift, in line with “_investors having growing amounts of savings and looking for places to invest [them] where they can get defensive, income-producing assets that also deliver a superior return to what they can get in fixed income and equities_."
> 
> Macquarie Capital delivered a net profit contribution of $2.4 billion, up 269 per cent, on significantly higher fees from M&A and DCM activities. Investment-related income was also sharply higher due to asset realisations in the green energy, technology and business services areas, as well as an increase in its private credit portfolio.
> 
> The banking and financial services division, which competes with the big four banks in the ultra-competitive home loans space, was up 30 per cent to $1.001 billion. Macquarie has outpaced the growth of its larger competitors over the past 12 months, to deliver strong growth in home loans.
> 
> International businesses made up 75 per cent of Macquarie’s total earnings, with the Americas contributing 48 per cent and Australia around a quarter, highlighting the strength of Macquarie’s geographical composition.
> 
> .......-..-.-.-.-.--.-...-.-.-.
> MQG will pay a final dividend of *$3.50 a share,* 40 per cent franked, on 04 July, up from its interim dividend of $2.72, representing a payout ratio of 50 per cent.



 the outlook is always the danger  with MQG , it habitually under-promises  , which i think is just sensible considering the extra risks it takes 

 the silver-lining is i MIGHT get an extra share ( or two ) in the DRP if the share price remains lower ( than $200 )

 not my  best return  on investment  , but right up in the top ten


----------



## divs4ever

qldfrog said:


> The reason i first bought this week.
> If the Reset happens, they will be among the few aussies to benefit.
> So medium term should be ok



 it depends which 'reset '  we get   the Davos plan will have us all as debt/rent slaves ( well ALMOST all )   think early Soviet Union ,

 OR the citizens will make their own New Wold Order , and that might even include a  free-market , if the existing government structure is given the boot


----------



## qldfrog

divs4ever said:


> it depends which 'reset '  we get   the Davos plan will have us all as debt/rent slaves ( well ALMOST all )   think early Soviet Union ,
> 
> OR the citizens will make their own New Wold Order , and that might even include a  free-market , if the existing government structure is given the boot



But in option one, MQG share holders may get some scrumbs


----------



## divs4ever

don't get me wrong MQG ( and their redeemed hybrids MQCPA and MBLHB ) have been VERY nice to me  since 2011  , but what of the new investor NOW , and MQG have more wriggles than a rattle-snake  , but we are heading into uncharted waters  , even the unthinkable can happen  , this time.

now IF the government uses the 'bail-in laws    on any ( or all ) of the big 4 , instead of the expected 'secret life-line '  suddenly MQG looks like a solid risk v. reward investment ( still high risk  , but the big 4 won't look so safe either )

 and YES MQG   has been fairly generous with the sharing  from top execs to share-holders and staff  ( some banks keep the gravy for the execs , only )


----------



## divs4ever

qldfrog said:


> But in option one, MQG share holders may get some scrumbs



i prefer option  two  , the Hayne Royal Commission shows how regulators can be a letdown ( despite the extra paper-work )

 MQG  could do what it does , and the big 4 would have to survive without government safety nets


----------



## dyna

SP down six bucks today , so bought another ten grand worth at $177.00.
Rising interest rates may hold this gorilla down for a bit, but it's sitting on a  $ 10 billion pile of cash ,so I guess it will be an interesting year ahead.


----------



## Belli

Has a few more fingers in the pie than only sitting on cash.  Don't hold directly but have some exposure (along with other companies) via and ETF and two LICs I hold.

From annual report.


----------



## divs4ever

i noticed it closed near  $175 today ( cum div. )

 and while my theoretical av. SP  is $26.76 ( but well and truly 'free-carried ' ) i was wondering IF i should buy a few more ( i already participate in the DRP )

 HIGHER risk to be sure  but is not hiding behind the woodshed  on paying divs 

 at the beginning of the month MQG was my largest  direct holding ( and suspect it still is ) and have additional exposure via various LICs and ETFs 

 DYOR


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Just a reminder that MQG will be buying barrow loads of their own shares as Employee Share Entitlement time is here. I read it in the AFR last night. 

So ... I'd suggest to incorporate that in to your thinking if you are trying to catch this mob of thieving b*****ds on the way down, as any up days, such as this morning may be due to that. They even have a carefully disguised announcement about it referencing derivatives or some such nailed on the front door of their motorbike lock-up this morning.

Also, I'd imagine the poor darlings who work there will be flogging them as quickly as they get them to pay their mortgages.

So gyrations imo quite apart from a recession/crash. 

gg


----------



## dyna

The thieving mob needs $870 million to do that.
Only $ 300 mill went through by the June 10 deadline , allowing staff to sell their share entitlement. So for this week and next MQG  has to fork out $ 570 million to buy on-market. The S.P.  has dropped 5% against 3 1/2 % for the index.
 That other so- called " bank" Barrenjoey, sees consumer spending slowing right down to GFC levels with household cost of living for a year at present $45,000 ,to rise by 13 %.


----------



## divs4ever

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just a reminder that MQG will be buying barrow loads of their own shares as Employee Share Entitlement time is here. I read it in the AFR last night.
> 
> So ... I'd suggest to incorporate that in to your thinking if you are trying to catch this mob of thieving b*****ds on the way down, as any up days, such as this morning may be due to that. They even have a carefully disguised announcement about it referencing derivatives or some such nailed on the front door of their motorbike lock-up this morning.
> 
> Also, I'd imagine the poor darlings who work there will be flogging them as quickly as they get them to pay their mortgages.
> 
> So gyrations imo quite apart from a recession/crash.
> 
> gg



 since i participate in their DRP such gyrations aren't totally bad for me 


 that $35 (plus ) discount will add extra shares to the holding


----------



## JohnDe

keep an eye on the big banks.



> *Slowdown to hit banks: Macquarie*
> 
> Macquarie analysts have tipped a rough ride for Australia’s banks as a looming economic slowdown approaches.
> 
> The banks are expected to outperform in the early part of the slowing cycle, before lower credit growth and impairment charges kick in and weigh on their balance sheets.
> 
> Macquarie now expects banks not to unwind their recent share price slump “until the economic outlook becomes clearer, which appears unlikely in the near term”.
> The analysts say there are rising concerns around the economic outlook which may trigger credit losses, which may be greater than anticipated.
> 
> Macquarie said this leaves downside risks to expectations, but any outcome depends on the severity of the recession and its impact on unemployment.


----------



## divs4ever

JohnDe said:


> keep an eye on the big banks.



 indeed  am being very cautious on my attempts to add extra WBC


----------



## dyna

S.P. down six bucks to its low for the year at $ 153.40.
Sellers now starting to outnumber the buyers but for piddling volumes , though. 
The serious buyers don't arrive until market closes after 4 pm. They're in there , hoovering up , every afternoon , now.
Has to be Insto's at that level.

I'll have a few more bites at the Big Mac , but taking my sweet time about it.....Patience required with this one , me thinks.


----------



## KevinBB

dyna said:


> S.P. down six bucks to its low for the year at $ 153.40.
> Sellers now starting to outnumber the buyers but for piddling volumes , though.
> The serious buyers don't arrive until market closes after 4 pm. They're in there , hoovering up , every afternoon , now.
> Has to be Insto's at that level.
> 
> I'll have a few more bites at the Big Mac , but taking my sweet time about it.....Patience required with this one , me thinks.




MQG came up on my alert list at about 11 this morning. Still not tempted ... not yet, anyway.

KH


----------



## Dona Ferentes

CEO Shemara Wikramanayake said Macquarie had set itself well to take advantage of further dislocations in global markets having bolstered its balance sheet and stockpiled $30 billion of dry powder to snap up attractive assets.

The comments came after it delivered a better-than-expected $2.3 billion interim profit that initially sent the share price 3 per cent higher before a late sell-off pushed into negative territory.

But Ms Wikramanayake hailed Macquarie’s diversified model as profit gains in its markets and commodities business and its Australian banking unit offset a sharp fall off in investment banking fees as market conditions soured.

_And a dividend of $3.00, franked at 40% and representing a 50% payout ratio._


----------



## dyna

This beast of a thing goes ex dividend a week ago for $ 3 and what does the S.P do ?
Goes up, up and up by nine bucks all in one day ! 
And it ain't comin back down.
$ 178 ...jeebus. Can't win, at this racket.
( Note to self : just let it go and look for something else. )


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Ms Macq went to COP27...


----------



## divs4ever

dyna said:


> This beast of a thing goes ex dividend a week ago for $ 3 and what does the S.P do ?
> Goes up, up and up by nine bucks all in one day !
> And it ain't comin back down.
> $ 178 ...jeebus. Can't win, at this racket.
> ( Note to self : just let it go and look for something else. )



 was kind of hoping it would slide also 

 i participate in the DRP ( lower SP means more shares in the div. payment )

if there was a market crash coming  , or terrible ( generic ) news for the banking sector , that is a better time to start stalking it 

 good luck


----------



## divs4ever

Dona Ferentes said:


> Ms Macq went to COP27...



 well it did buy  a green bank in the UK  ( now sure the critics called it 'green-washing ' )

 will be interesting to see if they hedge their bets  ( and lend for more fossil fuel development/exploration  as well )


----------



## Belli

dyna said:


> This beast of a thing goes ex dividend a week ago for $ 3 and what does the S.P do ?
> Goes up, up and up by nine bucks all in one day !
> And it ain't comin back down.
> $ 178 ...jeebus. Can't win, at this racket.
> ( Note to self : just let it go and look for something else. )




Damn.  That means it will not be captured by WHF








which should report this week.

On the bright side, however, it probably will in VAS and some LIC's I hold.







There is always a bright side somewhere I reckon.


----------



## divs4ever

Belli said:


> Damn.  That means it will not be captured by WHF
> 
> View attachment 149275
> 
> 
> 
> which should report this week.
> 
> On the bright side, however, it probably will in VAS and some LIC's I hold.
> 
> 
> View attachment 149276
> 
> 
> There is always a bright side somewhere I reckon.



 likely to be captured later with WHF  , which MIGHT be a good thing  ( a fatter div. when the market is generally lower , and smaller divs elsewhere )


----------



## Belli

I did a detailed search and found the bleeding obvious.  The other garbage I threw in the trash.


----------



## dyna

S.P. down today to $ 166.
Bought 10 grand worth at $ 168 , and still not done  with the beast.
Maybe another go after Xmas at $ 160.


----------



## eskys

I was looking at MQG's cap notes. MQGPE paid distributions yesterday. Went as high as 103.90 today and dropped back towards close. I'd like to get rid of all cos it's only 40% franking. 

The other four majors are 100% franking


----------



## divs4ever

eskys said:


> I was looking at MQG's cap notes. MQGPE paid distributions yesterday. Went as high as 103.90 today and dropped back towards close. I'd like to get rid of all cos it's only 40% franking.
> 
> The other four majors are 100% franking




 but the 'other 4 ' struggle to find meaningful , sustainable growth , MQG is liable to go out and buy London Bridge , turning  it into a toll-way  and then park the asset into a managed investment  pocketing fees from all sorts of angles MQG's divs at 40% franking spank those  of WBC  at 100% franking  ( because i bought both close to $20 in 2011 ) luckily i bought many more MQG than WBC

 think of it the other way  MQG makes more in profits than it pays local taxes on ( and danced it's way through the Hayne Royal Commission )

 look for the MQG share price to get spanked again the the next big downturn   because it is deemed  HIGH RISK because it  has only 1% of the Australian home mortgage market

 what about investing the MQG divs in say ANZ or WBC shares ( they are around $24  currently  and get the 100%  franking on those dives )

 i hold MQG 'free-carried' and a small amount of WBC ( courtesy of a mistimed exit )

 and for those that love 'green-washing ' the big 4  virtue signal , MQG bought the Green Development Bank in the UK 

 cheers


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## Dona Ferentes

eskys said:


> I was looking at MQG's cap notes. MQGPE paid distributions yesterday. Went as high as 103.90 today and dropped back towards close. I'd like to get rid of all cos it's only 40% franking.
> 
> The other four majors are 100% franking



Macquarie is Not a bank, it's an investment bank. It derives most of its earnings from overseas, so franking is hard to come by. The local banks are mainly big building societies.


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## divs4ever

Dona Ferentes said:


> Macquarie is Not a bank, it's an investment bank. It derives most of its earnings from overseas, so franking is hard to come by. The local banks are mainly big building societies.



maybe ' not a bank as most would understand it ' would be better , think  of MQG is an Australian version  of Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan    i have a little spare cash lurking in a Macquarie high interest account ( i have in the past also held Macquarie Group preference shares and Macquarie Bank hybrids )

 Macquarie does almost everything it can make a profit from  , commodity hedging contracts  leasing commercial planes ( to others ) infrastructure investments ( like previously in Sydney Airport ) , services to other companies ( including capital raising , M&A activity ) buying companies and inserting them into managed funds  , sure MQG mostly earns revenue outside Australia because that is where 90% of the global money is

 BIG fish in small ponds have their charms ( i invest a bit in NZ to capture precisely that affect ) but a hungry competitive shark in the global oceans  has it's chances of further growth

 BUT don't expect the Australian Government to rush in and rescue MQG if it gets into trouble ( like it would the 'big 4' ) and THAT is where the extra risk comes in


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## eskys

divs4ever said:


> but the 'other 4 ' struggle to find meaningful , sustainable growth , MQG is liable to go out and buy London Bridge , turning  it into a toll-way  and then park the asset into a managed investment  pocketing fees from all sorts of angles MQG's divs at 40% franking spank those  of WBC  at 100% franking  ( because i bought both close to $20 in 2011 ) luckily i bought many more MQG than WBC
> 
> think of it the other way  MQG makes more in profits than it pays local taxes on ( and danced it's way through the Hayne Royal Commission )
> 
> look for the MQG share price to get spanked again the the next big downturn   because it is deemed  HIGH RISK because it  has only 1% of the Australian home mortgage market
> 
> what about investing the MQG divs in say ANZ or WBC shares ( they are around $24  currently  and get the 100%  franking on those dives )
> 
> i hold MQG 'free-carried' and a small amount of WBC ( courtesy of a mistimed exit )
> 
> and for those that love 'green-washing ' the big 4  virtue signal , MQG bought the Green Development Bank in the UK
> 
> cheers



I don't have shares in MQG, divs.........the merchant bank, millionaire factory. I only have their cap notes for income. No more PC, PD, only holding PE now. Because of franking and our restructuring (company),  the lower returns get sold first. Can't remember PE's margin now, but it's not that brilliant as opposed some with 4% margins.

Don't want to put money into the market at the moment, divs..........don't know where it's heading. Retarded money in my pocket is safer than having them washed away in turbulent tides. Will come back and assess the situation in the new year.


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## divs4ever

eskys said:


> I don't have shares in MQG, divs.........the merchant bank, millionaire factory. I only have their cap notes for income. No more PC, PD, only holding PE now. Because of franking and our restructuring (company),  the lower returns get sold first. Can't remember PE's margin now, but it's not that brilliant as opposed some with 4% margins.
> 
> Don't want to put money into the market at the moment, divs..........don't know where it's heading. Retarded money in my pocket is safer than having them washed away in turbulent tides. Will come back and assess the situation in the new year.



if you ( or i ) knew where the market was heading  next  we would be future millionaires

 i held MQCPA  ,  later offerings never looked attractive to me  so avoided those , i also bought MBLHB ( which on paper looked tragic  except i bought them at a 38% discount to face value  making them competitive to term deposit rates at the time )

interesting times ahead , you can bet on that

 let your pocket calculator be your guide ( especially with interest-bearing securities )


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