# It was tough placing my buy orders this morning



## MovingAverage (25 February 2020)

Have to admit is was bloody tough placing my buy orders this morning knowing that the broader market was going to get absolutely smashed again today. My system generated a number of buy signals this morning but the voices in my head were telling me that I was completely loco and reminding me of the doomsday headlines running in the media about world markets experiencing their biggest single day crashes in years--apparently the media believes Armageddon is upon us. Despite my system simulations clearly showing me that my system performs well in market downturns it was tough with those voices going on in my head. Anyway, convinced myself to stick to the system rules and ignore those negative voices in my head and placed some sizable buy orders this morning--don't fail me now system. This trading game sure does mess with your head. 

This is my swing system so in the next few days I will reveal details of how my trades for today went, but for the record I went long this morning on EOS, AVH and APT and depending on price movement today I may go long on CAN and MVP. Time to hold on to my hat folks.

As someone once told me, plan the trade and trade the plan.


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## sptrawler (25 February 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Have to admit is was bloody tough placing my buy orders this morning knowing that the broader market was going to get absolutely smashed again today. My system generated a number of buy signals this morning but the voices in my head were telling me that I was completely loco and reminding me of the doomsday headlines running in the media about world markets experiencing their biggest single day crashes in years--apparently the media believes Armageddon is upon us. Despite my system simulations clearly showing me that my system performs well in market downturns it was tough with those voices going on in my head. Anyway, convinced myself to stick to the system rules and ignore those negative voices in my head and placed some sizable buy orders this morning--don't fail me now system. This trading game sure does mess with your head.
> 
> This is my swing system so in the next few days I will reveal details of how my trades for today went, but for the record I went long this morning on EOS, AVH and APT and depending on price movement today I may go long on CAN and MVP. Time to hold on to my hat folks.
> 
> As someone once told me, plan the trade and trade the plan.



You will never get rich unless you are brave and bold, just remember what Warren says "when people are heading for the exits", I will watch and support you that's why I'm not rich.
Maybe a small flutter on Kimberly-Clarke (kleenex), may be the go.
Only joking, all the best, as you say a system is a system.


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## tech/a (25 February 2020)

Got smashed yesterday even with tight stops on latest entries.
Biggest hits were from open profits that were set to B/E and hit
some filled lower.

This morning two left and they were stopped.
Now looking for opportunity.
Bought a couple already.

Timing is likely to be average but will fill up as things crystallize
and searches identify.

Cost of doing business!


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## rederob (25 February 2020)

Have moved some more cash to our trading account after only so far  only picking up Amcor.
Have a small order on AMI at 44cents and will hold it there as gold is retracing.
Am looking at BHP to drop more as the week goes on, but definitely am not in a hurry.
Same reason am looking at QAN.
Aside from that, will keep a close eye on any biotech that thinks they have an antiviral for covid-19.
And will see what a better scan can show.
I'm definitely not running to the exits!


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## MovingAverage (25 February 2020)

rederob said:


> I'm definitely not running to the exits!




There will be some good buying that is for sure. As the saying goes...buy of fear sell on greed.


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## tech/a (25 February 2020)

The worm is turning.
In my lot.
A2M a survivor 
Tesla of course.
The Super is showing some green.


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## qldfrog (25 February 2020)

There *will *be some good buying: 
*will*=future but when? at 10AM this morning or in 2 month/2 years...


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## MovingAverage (25 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> There *will *be some good buying:
> *will*=future but when? at 10AM this morning or in 2 month/2 years...




I asked my crystal ball that question but it won't give me an answer. My system on the other hand just tells me to buy if price hits a certain level and to sell when a certain condition is met, but frustratingly doesn't predict exactly when in the future those events will occur.


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## tech/a (25 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> There *will *be some good buying:
> *will*=future but when? at 10AM this morning or in 2 month/2 years...




In some cases you may have missed the boat.


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## MovingAverage (25 February 2020)

pffffft...who said the market was being slaughtered by the Corona virus  There's money to be had where others fear to tread.

So how did I end up today...well, I entered five orders this morning for EOS, AVH, APT, CAN and MVP based on set ups. Only EOS, AVH and APT triggered buys today while CAN and MVP didn't meet their entry requirements so no buy orders for those two. Note: while I went long on EOS, AVH and APT I did not buy on open.

What were my gains, at close my EOS position was up 8.4% on my entry price, AVH was up 5.04% on my entry price and APT was up 5.65% on my entry price. My system is telling me to exit EOS and APT, which I'll do tomorrow but I will hold my long position in AVH.

Got to admit I pretty happy with today--I wish the market would crash more often . Stick to the rules of your system they say.


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## qldfrog (25 February 2020)

sadly, with a weekly system all Isee on a day like today is red red red....


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## MovingAverage (25 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> sadly, with a weekly system all Isee on a day like today is red red red....




I trade a weekly system too...haven’t looked at this week for good reason but I will do tonight...I’m sure it will be a depressing sight


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## MovingAverage (25 February 2020)

@qldfrog thought you might be interested in some perspective. I don't normally look at the performance of my weekly system too frequently and it is a long term system and normally I only check in on performance EOM. However your earlier comment in this thread about your weekly system and the current market downturn did make me curious about the performance of my weekly system in the current market. The image below is the unit price (I prefer unit price as a measure of system performance) of my live weekly system from around Jan 2019 through to today. As of close today the current market downturn doesn't seem to have produced an abnormally negative impact on my portfolio's unit price when you compare to other declines that have occurred over the past 6 months. As you can see on the far right this current downturn is not dissimilar to the other downturns in unit price my portfolio has been experiencing since around Aug of last year.


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## aus_trader (25 February 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> pffffft...who said the market was being slaughtered by the Corona virus  There's money to be had where others fear to tread.
> 
> So how did I end up today...well, I entered five orders this morning for EOS, AVH, APT, CAN and MVP based on set ups. Only EOS, AVH and APT triggered buys today while CAN and MVP didn't meet their entry requirements so no buy orders for those two. Note: while I went long on EOS, AVH and APT I did not buy on open.
> 
> ...




Very interesting MovingAverage. Talk about catching a falling knife and winning 

Is it some intra-day system you are using on these stocks that has been bought for such rapid gain ?


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## qldfrog (25 February 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> @qldfrog thought you might be interested in some perspective. I don't normally look at the performance of my weekly system too frequently and it is a long term system and normally I only check in on performance EOM. However your earlier comment in this thread about your weekly system and the current market downturn did make me curious about the performance of my weekly system in the current market. The image below is the unit price (I prefer unit price as a measure of system performance) of my live weekly system from around Jan 2019 through to today. As of close today the current market downturn doesn't seem to have produced an abnormally negative impact on my portfolio's unit price when you compare to other declines that have occurred over the past 6 months. As you can see on the far right this current downturn is not dissimilar to the other downturns in unit price my portfolio has been experiencing since around Aug of last year.
> 
> View attachment 100739



There was a bit of a rebound, when i i look st the share around 11am sudney time, i had no green at all in my 2 systems: 38 positions in red.when i checked this evening, going down but probably 25% of green so not a catastrophe.lets see on friday


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## sptrawler (25 February 2020)

Was that bang and screech I heard, a dead cat.


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## frugal.rock (25 February 2020)

Had a think, and yesterday/ today was really a big ripple.
Gold XGD was up yesterday 4%
It was the worst sector today -3.7%
This screenshot would normally show 9 tiles of the highest advancing stocks, large cap... then 9 tiles mid cap etc.
I have never seen this before...
Only 1 stock in large, 3 in mid cap.


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## Value Collector (26 February 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Have to admit is was bloody tough placing my buy orders this morning knowing that the broader market was going to get absolutely smashed again today. My system generated a number of buy signals this morning but the voices in my head were telling me that I was completely loco and reminding me of the doomsday headlines running in the media about world markets experiencing their biggest single day crashes in years--apparently the media believes Armageddon is upon us. Despite my system simulations clearly showing me that my system performs well in market downturns it was tough with those voices going on in my head. Anyway, convinced myself to stick to the system rules and ignore those negative voices in my head and placed some sizable buy orders this morning--don't fail me now system. This trading game sure does mess with your head.
> 
> This is my swing system so in the next few days I will reveal details of how my trades for today went, but for the record I went long this morning on EOS, AVH and APT and depending on price movement today I may go long on CAN and MVP. Time to hold on to my hat folks.
> 
> As someone once told me, plan the trade and trade the plan.




I made my biggest purchase in over 18months.

When the chicken littles are screaming that the sky is falling, thats the time I sharpen my pencil and start looking for things to buy.


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## fiftyeight (26 February 2020)

Value Collector said:


> I made my biggest purchase in over 18months.
> 
> When the chicken littles are screaming that the sky is falling, thats the time I sharpen my pencil and start looking for things to buy.




I also made my biggest purchase in a while today, more gold through SAR. I don't think it is what you meant though


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## MovingAverage (26 February 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Very interesting MovingAverage. Talk about catching a falling knife and winning
> 
> Is it some intra-day system you are using on these stocks that has been bought for such rapid gain ?




It’s a swing system with an average hold time of around 3 days. I developed it based on a few pretty common pullback methodologies. Setups are EOD but it’s intra-day insofar as that it will buy/sell intra-day and not open/close.


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## CBerg (26 February 2020)

Value Collector said:


> I made my biggest purchase in over 18months.
> 
> When the chicken littles are screaming that the sky is falling, thats the time I sharpen my pencil and start looking for things to buy.



Do you mind sharing what you purchased? I'm curious to know given the success you've had in other positions


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## tech/a (26 February 2020)

I find it strange that this virus which isn’t a death sentence is smashing markets with fear.
Perhaps 60% of the worlds population will contract it. Most wont even know! It will come and go without notice.

2600 have died of this virus.

Last year 59000 died of the flu.
Cancelling the Olympics?
Company fundamentals haven’t altered.
The cost of the flu happens every year.
It’s world wide every year.

Can someone explain this hysteria?


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## MovingAverage (26 February 2020)

Morning ASFers, another day and another bunch of opportunities to be had (doing my best to keep a positive mindset).

My short term system generated another bunch of setups following yesterday's close. So this morning I've entered 4 new long positions so let's wait and see if they trigger. I'll provide an update if they trigger.

Changed my usual morning routine this morning to help me deal with the head F...k I was dealing with yesterday as a result of the nasty overnight activity and news. First thing I normally do in the morning is to checkout the overnight activity to see what's been going on. Well this morning I didn't do that so I have no idea what has been going on, which made it a little easier to place my orders without the voices in my head tell me I was an idiot to participate in such a crap market. Ignorance is bliss they say. Interestingly, I did find myself wrestling with a little over-confidence this morning after my trades yesterday. At one stage I was contemplating upping my trade size, but talked myself out of it and sticking with my usual tried and tested position sizes.


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## MovingAverage (26 February 2020)

tech/a said:


> I find it strange that this virus which isn’t a death sentence is smashing markets with fear.
> Perhaps 60% of the worlds population will contract it. Most wont even know! It will come and go without notice.
> 
> 2600 have died of this virus.
> ...




Isn't there a saying about never letting facts get in the way of a good story...maybe Murdoch and Co are heavily shorting the market


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## kid hustlr (26 February 2020)

Good thread!!


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## frugal.rock (26 February 2020)

tech/a said:


> Can someone explain this hysteria?



It seemed to me, that a large institution/s got a memo to sell all holdings.? Dump, pump, dump.
I didn't buy, I didn't sell.? No hysteria on my part.
Am expecting to see a few more days like these in the coming weeks/months.

F.Rock


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## qldfrog (26 February 2020)

tech/a said:


> I find it strange that this virus which isn’t a death sentence is smashing markets with fear.
> Perhaps 60% of the worlds population will contract it. Most wont even know! It will come and go without notice.
> 
> 2600 have died of this virus.
> ...



Sure , read the coronovirus thread on asf here
It is between 20 and 50 times more deadly than the flu you refer to, more contagious, and there is no vaccine whereas the flu has most at risk people vaccinated so your figures are based on immunised known treatment population.it is not being crazy to potentially have 10 millions people dead in 1or 2 years
It will not destroy the world but you would have statistical reason to be worry if above 65.
That is for the health side.if people think that China lost trillions of dollars just because they are scared of nothing, tell them they are dreaming.
Now share wise, what and who do we sell to?
Australia then Canada are the 2 most exposed countries to even a slow down in China and we will pay dearly.pure economics.
Feel free to buy the dip but do it after informing yourself would be my opinion.
i am sure the rba will slash rate and probably directly buy on the market but the aud exchange rate will be affected imho.


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## tech/a (26 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Sure , read the coronovirus thread on asf here
> It is between 20 and 50 times more deadly than the flu you refer to, more contagious, and there is no vaccine whereas the flu has most at risk people vaccinated so your figures are based on immunised known treatment population.it is not being crazy to potentially have 10 millions people dead in 1or 2 years
> It will not destroy the world but you would have statistical reason to be worry if above 65.
> That is for the health side.if people think that China lost trillions of dollars just because they are scared of nothing, tell them they are dreaming.
> ...




so in 2 years approx 30 million will die of Stroke or Heart attack 
That happens every year

not doing a great deal with the contagious lifestyle that causes these deaths!

think it’s an over reaction 
Not the attempted control measures but perceived consequences 

when a vaccine arrive it will just be another cold


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## qldfrog (26 February 2020)

tech/a said:


> so in 2 years approx 30 million will die of Stroke or Heart attack
> That happens every year
> 
> not doing a great deal with the contagious lifestyle that causes these deaths!
> ...



To each his own learning and teaching, in the meaning lets see how Australia cope with a 25pc(3 mths) fall in export and import from its main business partner.


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## sptrawler (26 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> To each his own learning and teaching, in the meaning lets see how Australia cope with a 25pc(3 mths) fall in export and import from its main business partner.



This is when good trading techniques get tested IMO.


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## tech/a (26 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> To each his own learning and teaching, in the meaning lets see how Australia cope with a 25pc(3 mths) fall in export and import from its main business partner.




frog 
I’m one of those 
I’m waiting an steel 
I’ve made alternate arrangements as have others in similar positions 
I’m still hiring not laying anyone off and neither are those around me

I have 2 open positions 
The opportunity just gets better


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## MovingAverage (26 February 2020)

Of the 4 orders I placed this morning 1 has triggered: NWS. The other three orders are still pending. I'm still holding AVH from yesterday and that is still up on my entry yesterday.


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## qldfrog (26 February 2020)

While i disagree with @tech/a  view on the importance of the shock ahead, i agree about opportunities coming in such market
If it is going to hit hard CCV should be green for example and a serious buy.
We all know the market is not rational, FFS the asx was going up last week while all the data and failure to control was available for every one to see.
I agree on selective buy opportunities, but would not touch an asx200 index etf with a pole


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## IFocus (26 February 2020)

tech/a said:


> so in 2 years approx 30 million will die of Stroke or Heart attack
> That happens every year
> 
> not doing a great deal with the contagious lifestyle that causes these deaths!
> ...




Tech without being alarmist I think the current estimates if the infection rate is 2-3% around over 100 mil worldwide will die from the virus and that's on the expectation only 40% will be infected  but infection rates could possible be as high as 70%.

Its a big deal and although the numbers are much smaller healthy people will die from it also.

Also apparently having a vaccine in 18 months is a heroic call possible but still heroic.


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## tech/a (26 February 2020)

Ok I could be wrong 
But they found a vaccine for Ebola virus in months 
AIDS in months 
Everything may grind to a halt and being a mushroom maybe detrimental

In the short time I’ve been on this planet I’ve found our species to be alarmingly alarmists.


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## MovingAverage (26 February 2020)

Ok boys and girls...love all the discussion about the impact of Corona, but just pulling the thread back to my OP for a moment. So how did I get on today--well this morning I placed 4 orders based on my EOD setups. The orders were for ALQ, CGC, LNK and NWS. Only NWS triggered a buy, the other 3 (ALQ, CGC and LNK) didn't meet their triggers so no orders.

In the end I was only holding NWS and AVH (AVH was entered yesterday) during the course today. At close today NWS was down 0.24% on my entry price while AVH gave up all of yesterday's gain and closed down 0.14% on my entry prices. A quick scan of my system and it is telling me to keep holding NWS and AVH so I guess it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. I also appear to have a bunch of good looking setups for tomorrow so I will be taking 3 of them tomorrow morning.

I'll be adopting the same approach tomorrow as I did today--stick my head in the sand and ignore the overnight market activity.

I'll now pass you back to our normal program regarding the spread of Corona.


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## MovingAverage (26 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> but would not touch an asx200 index etf with a pole




I'm not a shorter but if I was I'd be all over index ETFs...there's sure to be a bucket load of cash to be made from shorting index ETFs at the moment.


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## frugal.rock (26 February 2020)

I didn't trade again today.
Had a squiz, and, yes, oh my, there's some bargains around...or is there?!
Am expecting the dumping to continue tomorrow, followed by a pumping and dumping to close.
If it plays that tune, will have a crack at something tomorrow for intraday only...
As for last week @qldfrog , with webjet and Qantas up one day, twas fairly obviously a pump dump, and it was across many stocks.
They are 2 stocks that should see massive falls in the face of current times.
After today, am pretty sure that the large money/ big end of town is  pulling out of the market en masse....
The money is disappearing.
Consider, every sector down 2nd day in a row.
Best sector today?
Real estate, at only -1.9 % down...
The bargains are yet to be seen IMO.

F.Rock
PS, good luck with the system @MovingAverage 
Can't help but think that it may be more successful with discretionary intraday exits at the moment?


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## MovingAverage (26 February 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> with webjet and Qantas up one day, twas fairly




This probably explains why I'm not a shorter, but my logic is telling me that travel and tourism stocks like QAN and Webjet (just to name a few) would see some heavy shorting given they are at the front line and will be the first to have their short term revenue hit hard by this virus. Yet I just checked shorting activity and these companies seem to be way down the list of companies attracting short activity. Oh well, I always sucked at fundamental analysis.


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## qldfrog (26 February 2020)

sorry to derail the thread MA, with instability:
there is a lot of money to be made in daily trade, no issue about that and good luck for you, we will see pump and dump, fake news, fed injection so I wish I had a daily system ready, but I only work on weekly system a lazy but less $ gaining system with the current market.
_As for dates and vaccines:
The first vaccine to be approved in the United States was rVSV-ZEBOV in December of 2019
and
The 2014–2016 outbreak in West Africa was the largest and most complex Ebola outbreak since the virus was first discovered in 1976
so 3 years since biggest outbreak or 33 years from discovery,
as for AIDS vaccine, if you know of one, please let me know so that I can buy some shares
There is none working and available_

Realistically 22 months minimum for a COVID-19 vaccine to be available (designed, tested and mass produced)
I think this could be the legendary black swan pushing an overreached market over the edge, but Trump will do everything he can to avoid the crash

@MovingAverage , did IVC, PFP, ANN or even gold miners appears in your daily system results?
Have you noticed any specific sector highlighted as a buy (not asking for specific codes, and please feel free to answer post your purchases) 
I think this could be interesting


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## MovingAverage (26 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> sorry to derail the thread MA,
> 
> @MovingAverage , did IVC, PFP, ANN or even gold miners appears in your daily system results?
> Have you noticed any specific sector highlighted as a buy (not asking for specific codes, and please feel free to answer post your purchases)
> I think this could be interesting




Derail away my friend...derail away. All good.

I've just done a quick scan for setup between this Monday and tomorrow. IVC, PFP and ANN did not generate any setups, but that could also be attributed to the fact that they are outside of the constituents I scan (my system generates a dynamic group of stock constituents that it scans for setups--I'm not just using members of an index) as well as not generating setups. If you want to throw a few gold miners at me I'll take a look for you.


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## MovingAverage (26 February 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> PS, good luck with the system @MovingAverage
> Can't help but think that it may be more successful with discretionary intraday exits at the moment?




I don't trust my discretion so I'll stay well clear of that.


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## MovingAverage (26 February 2020)

Am I worried about trading my swing system in the current market...probably not. here is how it performed in calendar year 2008. 1000 runs in AB and here is the MC output. TradeSim MC is robust too.


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## qldfrog (26 February 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Am I worried about trading my swing system in the current market...probably not. here is how it performed in calendar year 2008. 1000 runs in AB and here is the MC output. TradeSim MC is robust too.
> 
> 
> View attachment 100763



I fully understand but I am afraid it would be hard to get similar results on a weekly system, anyway, my systems were tested for down periods , should be able to disengage when required but momentum is higher..so  DD  is a fact of life.


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## Value Collector (27 February 2020)

fiftyeight said:


> I also made my biggest purchase in a while today, more gold through SAR. I don't think it is what you meant though




Hahaha, nah I went in a different direction.


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## So_Cynical (27 February 2020)

TAH and ORG look cheap.


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## MovingAverage (27 February 2020)

Good Morning Campers, another day another $.
Taking the same approach today...haven't looked at overnight activity. I'm taking 3 setups today so let's see if they trigger. I'll report back on any positions that trigger. I'm continuing to hold NWS and AVH so let's see of the fat lady sings after close today. Must admit I'm finding it mentally a lot easier to take positions in the bliss of ignorance that comes with completely ignoring media.


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## qldfrog (27 February 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Good Morning Campers, another day another $.
> Taking the same approach today...haven't looked at overnight activity. I'm taking 3 setups today so let's see if they trigger. I'll report back on any positions that trigger. I'm continuing to hold NWS and AVH so let's see of the fat lady sings after close today. Must admit I'm finding it mentally a lot easier to take positions in the bliss of ignorance that comes with completely ignoring media.



Informed knowledge.aka unload 4 weeks ago, as for system it is indeed better to not look, i do a daily update at eod and it is counterproductive for my weekly system as i see loss gathering..but 8 need to be kept aware for the rest of my portfolio..faring quite well
I agree that systems played in insolation is the way to go ..and the easiest mentally
Good luck on today trades


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## MovingAverage (27 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> i do a daily update at eod and it is counterproductive for my weekly system as i see loss gathering..




Have to admit I'm not looking forward to running my weekly system on Friday evening... I reckon all positions will have well and truly triggered their stops. Oh well, maybe I'll have a few beers on Friday night before I run my weekly system...might help take the edge of all the sells


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## Value Collector (27 February 2020)

CBerg said:


> Do you mind sharing what you purchased? I'm curious to know given the success you've had in other positions




I added 22,000 more FMG to my holding, and sold out of the money puts on Fmg also.

it’s a longterm play to extend my holding subsidizing the purchase price with the 76cent dividend and the option premium.

I expect once the Corona fear to clear, FMG will eventually settle above $13 with decent dividends and I would have secured a good deal on the purchase based on current prices.


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## MovingAverage (27 February 2020)

So how did I do today?

I've been holding AVH and NWS for a few days now. At close today AVH was down 3.1% on my entry price and NWS was 5.97% down on my entry price. My system is telling me to continue holding these positions so let's wait and see what tomorrow bring on these.

I took three setup this morning for CDA, AX1 and PNV but none of those hit the trigger for entry so I didn't enter any new positions today. A quick scan of my system has flagged a few setups so like today I will be taking three of tonight's setups for tomorrow.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.


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## tinhat (27 February 2020)

All you people that think about the market every day, I hope you also do what is important too.


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## Value Collector (27 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> All you people that think about the market every day, I hope you also do what is important too.




I will take thinking about the market for a few minutes a day over a 9 to 5 any time.

investing for a living truly frees up time for what’s important in life. 

think about it, that trade I mentioned above took me about an 1hr to plan, 20mins to execute and if I am right it produce a capital gain equal to about 6 months of living expenses and generate about 2 months living expenses in dividends for as long as I hold it.

Of course it took me a longer period of time to study FMG in the first place, but that was only a solid few days 6years ago, and a few hours a year since then.


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## MovingAverage (28 February 2020)

Okey dokey boys and girls, so what happened with my swing system today?

As I mentioned earlier, I went into the day holding AVH and NWS. I entered three setups which included MOE, AFG and CCX. AFG and CCX triggered so I entered long positions on those two stocks. MOE didn't trigger. So at close today I ended up holding AVH, NWS, AFG and CCX. Where did I end up, well CCX is up 4.03% on my entry price, AFG is up 3.1% on my entry price, NWS is down 3.5% on my entry price and AVH is down 7.2% on my entry price.

My system is not telling me to dump any of my positions so looks like I'll be going into Monday holding AVH, NWS, AFG and CCX, My system has identified several setups for Monday so I'll be taking one of them.

Have to be honest, I'm still very comfortable about trading this system in the current market but AVH does worry me a little, but I'm sticking to the system and will do what its telling me.

Hope y'all have a great weekend and try not to worry about the current market too much. @qldfrog I haven't run the scan on my weekly system yet but not looking forward to that


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## qldfrog (28 February 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Okey dokey boys and girls, so what happened with my swing system today?
> 
> As I mentioned earlier, I went into the day holding AVH and NWS. I entered three setups which included MOE, AFG and CCX. AFG and CCX triggered so I entered long positions on those two stocks. MOE didn't trigger. So at close today I ended up holding AVH, NWS, AFG and CCX. Where did I end up, well CCX is up 4.03% on my entry price, AFG is up 3.1% on my entry price, NWS is down 3.5% on my entry price and AVH is down 7.2% on my entry price.
> 
> ...



Not bad for your daily systemd
Weekly system will be scary, just today down 8k paper or 4pc for my 2 live systems.thanksfully, FMG warrants sold and 2.5k profit realised there, as well as some profit realisation on bboz, but got surprised by the fall in the Goldies
The move to capital guaranteed last month on my supers was  vindicated
The issue will be to re-enter properly
And get more FMG warrants on the next dead cat bounce
Thanks for your input: i wish i could have your skills on a daily system
Well done


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## MovingAverage (28 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Not bad for your daily systemd
> Weekly system will be scary, just today down 8k paper or 4pc for my 2 live systems.thanksfully, FMG warrants sold and 2.5k profit realised there, as well as some profit realisation on bboz, but got surprised by the fall in the Goldies
> The move to capital guaranteed last month on my supers was  vindicated
> The issue will be to re-enter properly
> ...




Nice work on your warrants. Must admit I'm a pretty vanilla and unexciting trader and really only dabble in long positions only and those fancy leveraged instruments such as CFDs, warrants, options etc I'll leave to the more advanced traders such as yourself...says the man with some capital behind him


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## MovingAverage (28 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> All you people that think about the market every day, I hope you also do what is important too.




The market allows me to do what is important...so yes I think about it everyday


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## aus_trader (28 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> The move to capital guaranteed last month on my supers was vindicated



Could you please explain what is meant here by capital guaranteed ?

Yeah, I was also surprised by the falls in Gold stocks


----------



## mcgrath111 (28 February 2020)

Dow futures getting smashed. What an exciting time to follow the markets.


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## Smurf1976 (28 February 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> TAH and ORG look cheap.



No comment on TAH but so far as ORG (Origin Energy) is concerned I'll mention that whilst the company is well known as being involved with the gas and electricity industries, it also has exposure to the oil price and thus to some extent the global economy via LNG contract pricing linked to the oil price. Reason being that ORG is also involved with the production and sale of LNG.

So it's partly a utility company, partly a commodity producer despite being a "household name" company in the utility sector.


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## qldfrog (28 February 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Could you please explain what is meant here by capital guaranteed ?
> 
> Yeah, I was also surprised by the falls in Gold stocks



Sunsuper option: capital guarantee: cash as cash, not as bonds which may actually lose value


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## MovingAverage (2 March 2020)

G'day all,
Bit of an update on my swing system. As I indicated on Friday I closed last week holding four open positions and maintained those open position into today's open. I opened one additional position today and that was PRU. Here is where I have to come clean about an indiscretion--I'm pretty bloody minded about sticking to the rules of my systems and have been pretty good over the years, if my systems say buy I buy and if my systems say sell I sell...nothing more and nothing less matters. Well getting back to PRU--I entered it today at exactly 0.90. All well and good until I sit down at my computer around lunch time and notice PRU hovering around $1. Oh crap, I'm thinking to myself that's a good run up in price given this morning's open decline and I'm feeling a little nervous about giving up a circa 10% gain on PRU this morning particularly given the size of my trade and the unrealized healthy profit. I'm telling myself do nothing and run the system tonight as I should (it's an EOD for buy sell setups), but I caved in and hit the sell on PRU and bagged a little over 10% profit. I know I should have done nothing and run my system at close today, but I just couldn't ignore the profit given the crappy state of the market. Shame on me, so feel free to strip me of my system trader title and call me a discretionary trader from here on if   So I'm still left with my four open positions so let's see how they do at EOD but no more circumventing my system. Time to turn of computer and worry about this tonight


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## MovingAverage (2 March 2020)

Here is how I ended up today. I went into the day with four open positions: CCX, AVH, NWS and AFG. As I mentioned above I entered PRU mid morning and overrode my system to sell early afternoon for a fraction over 10% profit. Not proud of selling PRU outside of my system, but nerves got the better of me with a healthy gain at risk. At the end of today I closed with CCX up 1.8% on my entry but in the red was AFG at 2.09% down on my entry, NWS 6.26% down on entry price and worst of all is AVH down 12.8% on my entry price. Oh well, they can't all be winners.

A quick scan of my system and it is telling me to offload CCX and NWS tomorrow but to continue holding AVH and AFG. My system has also identified a few setups so I will be entering three orders tomorrow.


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## aus_trader (2 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> G'day all,
> Bit of an update on my swing system. As I indicated on Friday I closed last week holding four open positions and maintained those open position into today's open. I opened one additional position today and that was PRU. Here is where I have to come clean about an indiscretion--I'm pretty bloody minded about sticking to the rules of my systems and have been pretty good over the years, if my systems say buy I buy and if my systems say sell I sell...nothing more and nothing less matters. Well getting back to PRU--I entered it today at exactly 0.90. All well and good until I sit down at my computer around lunch time and notice PRU hovering around $1. Oh crap, I'm thinking to myself that's a good run up in price given this morning's open decline and I'm feeling a little nervous about giving up a circa 10% gain on PRU this morning particularly given the size of my trade and the unrealized healthy profit. I'm telling myself do nothing and run the system tonight as I should (it's an EOD for buy sell setups), but I caved in and hit the sell on PRU and bagged a little over 10% profit. I know I should have done nothing and run my system at close today, but I just couldn't ignore the profit given the crappy state of the market. Shame on me, so feel free to strip me of my system trader title and call me a discretionary trader from here on if   So I'm still left with my four open positions so let's see how they do at EOD but no more circumventing my system. Time to turn of computer and worry about this tonight




10% gain is better than a +10% loss especially in this market. I just wander if there is a short term pause/bounce to the relentless sell down we had since the start of last week (six days in a row), with today's late recovery... ?


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## MovingAverage (2 March 2020)

aus_trader said:


> 10% gain is better than a +10% loss especially in this market. I just wander if there is a short term pause/bounce to the relentless sell down we had since the start of last week (six days in a row), with today's late recovery... ?



Must admit I was very surprised to see today’s recovery—haven’t looked at today’s movements but am very curious to see what stocks lead today’s recovery


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## Knobby22 (2 March 2020)

About time for a sucker rally.


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## tech/a (2 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> About time for a sucker rally.



Think that’s happened already


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## MovingAverage (2 March 2020)

My swing system is holding up...here is the unit price since 2 Feb. Despite the chaos over the past week the system is still up 4.3% over the past month.


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## aus_trader (2 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Must admit I was very surprised to see today’s recovery—haven’t looked at today’s movements but am very curious to see what stocks lead today’s recovery




Obviously the hand sanitiser stock Zoono Group Ltd (ZNO) leading the pack, which won me the Feb ASF stock tipping comp. Here are the rest of the winners:


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## MovingAverage (2 March 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Obviously the hand sanitiser stock Zoono Group Ltd (ZNO) leading the pack, which won me the Feb ASF stock tipping comp. Here are the rest of the winners:
> View attachment 100930




Thanks @aus_trader . What is going on with WTC??? Given they operate in the global logistics space my logic tells me they should have been hit pretty hard with all of the international travel and shipping restrictions (maybe they did and today was a rebound for them) I know WTC is not directly a shipping/logistics company but they do provide software to that industry and my understanding (which may well be wrong) is that their software and revenue is based on a transactional model--more shipping container movements means more tickets to clip for WTC. Must admit I know very little about their business model so I'm probably way off the mark on that. Thanks for the price movements.


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## MovingAverage (2 March 2020)

My weekly system getting a beating now @qldfrog . Lots of sell orders today. Oh well, drawdowns are part of the game I guess. Stay the course.


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## aus_trader (2 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Thanks @aus_trader . What is going on with WTC??? Given they operate in the global logistics space my logic tells me they should have been hit pretty hard with all of the international travel and shipping restrictions (maybe they did and today was a rebound for them) I know WTC is not directly a shipping/logistics company but they do provide software to that industry and my understanding (which may well be wrong) is that their software and revenue is based on a transactional model--more shipping container movements means more tickets to clip for WTC. Must admit I know very little about their business model so I'm probably way off the mark on that. Thanks for the price movements.




I think they were always susceptible to a sudden fall if there was any fear in the markets given their P/E multiples. It could work the other way too in terms of risk-on sentiment which could explain the rebound today.


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## MovingAverage (3 March 2020)

Another day and another bunch of trades.
As I mentioned in my update yesterday I offloaded two positions today: CCX and NWS. I sold CCX for a 12.1% gain on my entry price and NWS was sold for a loss of around 6.8% on my entry price. Let's not mention me overriding my system yesterday to sell PRU because it put on about another 5% gain today--that will teach me for overriding the system.
I entered three new positions this morning for MNY, BGL and WAF but none of those triggered so no new positions added to the portfolio.
So I ended up at close today holding AFG and AVH. AFG closed today up around 1% on my entry price while AVH closed today around 11% down on my entry price.
A quick scan on my system and it is telling me to offload AFG tomorrow but to continue holding AVH. AVH is now at the system limit of hold time (6 days) so will be interested to see what happens with it over next few days. My scan has identified a number of set ups for tomorrow. I need four setups for tomorrow by my system is only identifying three.
Overall the performance (in terms of unit price) of the portfolio is still tracking ok over the past month despite the market chaos and is close to 5% up.


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## MovingAverage (4 March 2020)

Okey dokey...I entered today holding AFG and AVH. I offloaded AFG for an overall loss of 3% on my entry price. I entered three orders today for INA, IEL and AVZ. Only IEL trigger but somewhat frustratingly I only got a partial fill for a small fraction of the quantity I wanted--damn I wish BD would allow the option of specifying all or nothing orders . Anyway, the partial fill throws things out a little and commission drag will be a issue on this trade because I only got a small fraction of the quantity I wanted. My system as finally told me to offload AVH, which I will do tomorrow. At close today AVH was down around 8% on my entry.

My system has identified several setup so I will enter five of those tomorrow morning.


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## qldfrog (4 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Okey dokey...I entered today holding AFG and AVH. I offloaded AFG for an overall loss of 3% on my entry price. I entered three orders today for INA, IEL and AVZ. Only IEL trigger but somewhat frustratingly I only got a partial fill for a small fraction of the quantity I wanted--damn I wish BD would allow the option of specifying all or nothing orders . Anyway, the partial fill throws things out a little and commission drag will be a issue on this trade because I only got a small fraction of the quantity I wanted. My system as finally told me to offload AVH, which I will do tomorrow. At close today AVH was down around 8% on my entry.
> 
> My system has identified several setup so I will enter five of those tomorrow morning.



For the positive, you will notice that if your open order is not closed by you, and get filled tomorrow, you will pay a single commission.
I would let that order live till tomorrow night
Either you get filled at requested price or below, or can make the decision to close it 
Not ideal for day systems


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## Value Collector (4 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Sunsuper option: capital guarantee: cash as cash, not as bonds which may actually lose value




Not sure about Sunsuper, but some capital guaranteed funds also still invest in shares, but hedge the down side with options and other derivatives.


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## frugal.rock (4 March 2020)

I dunno. 
The chart looks like a pull back action.
XHJ down -2.3% today. 
Hopefully you get a XHJ up day tomorrow for the sell. 

F.Rock


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## Value Collector (4 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> About time for a sucker rally.




I am starting to think it was probably a sucker crash, and we are entering an "oh shoot we over reacted rally".

(but who knows the mind of Mr Market, not me thats for sure, when people are selling shares and buying toilet paper, who knows what they will do next ahaha)


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## frugal.rock (4 March 2020)

"Woolworths* rations toilet paper, handwash as virus fears empty shelves"*

*https://www.afr.com/companies/retai...-as-virus-fears-empty-shelves-20200304-p546mw*

F.Rock


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## Knobby22 (4 March 2020)

Value Collector said:


> I am starting to think it was probably a sucker crash, and we are entering an "oh shoot we over reacted rally".
> 
> (but who knows the mind of Mr Market, not me thats for sure, when people are selling shares and buying toilet paper, who knows what they will do next ahaha)



The market usually over reacts. I think though that the present price of many companies, especially the banks,  doesn't yet reflect the future reality of serious business disruption.


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## Value Collector (5 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The market usually over reacts. I think though that the present price of many companies, especially the banks,  doesn't yet reflect the future reality of serious business disruption.




Depends I what the interest rate environment is for the next 10 years I guess.


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## aus_trader (5 March 2020)

Value Collector said:


> Depends I what the interest rate environment is for the next 10 years I guess.




Yes that is a big question mark, with more rate cuts on the way and PM preparing stimulus for small business obviously since a lot of small business experiencing disruption as @Knobby22 said.


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## MovingAverage (5 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> For the positive, you will notice that if your open order is not closed by you, and get filled tomorrow, you will pay a single commission.
> I would let that order live till tomorrow night
> Either you get filled at requested price or below, or can make the decision to close it
> Not ideal for day systems



Agree, but do that has the real potential to screw with my positioning rules and is likely throw out performance. I’ve modelled at tested my system on an all or nothing basis. I probably should factor in partial fills into my backtesting, but I’ve thought long and hard about that and for it to be realistic I’d need to now what is a realistic percentage of all trades that are partial fills and what is a realistic percentage of total order quantity that fills? I’d love to know what anyone else is doing to simulate partial fills in their backtesting?


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## qldfrog (5 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Agree, but do that has the real potential to screw with my positioning rules and is likely throw out performance. I’ve modelled at tested my system on an all or nothing basis. I probably should factor in partial fills into my backtesting, but I’ve thought long and hard about that and for it to be realistic I’d need to now what is a realistic percentage of all trades that are partial fills and what is a realistic percentage of total order quantity that fills? I’d love to know what anyone else is doing to simulate partial fills in their backtesting?



Can not help.not modelled and i chase if not filled.so far i have the luxury time wise to do it
I always see backtests as best target


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## MovingAverage (5 March 2020)

I'm short on time tonight so you're only getting a quick update tonight.
Sold AVH for a loss of 3.2%. Also sold IEL because only got a partial fill yesterday and wanted it out of portfolio. IEL gave me a small profit of 1.5%
Entered 5 setups today for: IMF, NCK, CHC, ZIM and ADH. Only order to trigger was ZIM and frustratingly this was only a partial fill, but at least I got most of my quantity so unlike my partial IEL fill yesterday I will keep ZIM in the portfolio until system tells me to dump. ZIM closed the day up 2.8% on my entry price.
A quick scan of my system and there are no setups so absolutely no activity for my system tomorrow. Will just hold ZIM through the day. Have a good night folks


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## MovingAverage (5 March 2020)

In case anyone is interested the unit price of my portfolio is up 3.25% since 1st of March.


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## MovingAverage (9 March 2020)

My system is telling me to hold ZIM, which I’ll do today. I’m looking for four setups but my system is only flagging three so I’m entering all of those today. Let’s see how we do today. Happy Monday y’all


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## MovingAverage (9 March 2020)

Good afternoon ASF'ers,

How's everyone's trades doing...my trend following systems are getting smashed, but can't say the same for my swing system. I placed three orders this morning for MYS, REH and ADP. The only two orders that triggered were MYS and RES. At close today I was left holding ZIM (from last week) and MYS and REH--ZIM was down 2.9% on my entry price, REH closed up 0.4% on my entry price and MYS closed up 0.05% on my entry price.

My system is telling me to hold ZIM, REH and MYS tomorrow. My system has flagged several setups so I will be taking two of them tomorrow.

Have to admit, trading in this market is really starting to hurting my head but that is probably coming from looking at the performance of my trend following systems as opposed to the performance of my swing system (which seems to be holding up reasonably well and still picking up some profit here and there)

Can't wait for this bloody market to find some support.


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## aus_trader (9 March 2020)

If your swing trading system is holding up in this market...


You must be doing something right. I can't remember when we had a more than 7% fall in one day in the All Ord's, GFC maybe?

And yes if there is some support from the falling prices, the system should do a lot better.


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## MovingAverage (11 March 2020)

Morning All,
My system is telling me to continue holding REH, MYS and ZIM. At close yesterday REH was down 0.5%, MYS, was down 2.6% and ZIM was down 14%. I entered two orders yesterday for VTG and JLG but neither triggered so no new positions added yesterday. My system has not identified any new setups today so no action happening today for this system. Sounds like we'll be in for a more positive day today with last nights action in the US, but who know I would never have picked yesterday given the prior smashing the US market got.
Think I'll stay away from the computers today and just spend some time in the garden away from this chaos.
Arrivederci ASFers


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## qldfrog (11 March 2020)

Zim is interesting weekly system says keep.so i keep.it handled the initial down market quite well untill a 11pc fall in a day...might recover today.will see


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## MovingAverage (11 March 2020)

aus_trader said:


> If your swing trading system is holding up in this market...
> View attachment 101153
> 
> You must be doing something right. I can't remember when we had a more than 7% fall in one day in the All Ord's, GFC maybe?




I can't believe this volatility...the Dow down over 7% one day and the next day (overnight) it rallies to close 5% higher, which I'm told is the biggest one day gain since Dec 2008.


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## qldfrog (11 March 2020)

My 2c is that the bottom of a down can not be found with that level of volatility.
Denial then acceptance then recovery
As per many posters' reaction here seem to indicate, we are still in denial.
Too early..by far..for the low imho


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## MovingAverage (11 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> My 2c is that the bottom of a down can not be found with that level of volatility.
> Denial then acceptance then recovery
> As per many posters' reaction here seem to indicate, we are still in denial.
> Too early..by far..for the low imho




The only one that really knows where this market is heading is Mr. Time....only time will tell where this market is headed


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## qldfrog (11 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> The only one that really knows where this market is heading is Mr. Time....only time will tell where this market is headed



Will never disagree with that


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## frugal.rock (11 March 2020)

This morning looks like the roller coaster will get pulled up the ramp again... and then down the hill again at speed!
Which sectors are the flavours of the day? Financials are looking set up for a run... of sorts.

F.Rock


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## jbocker (11 March 2020)

,







MovingAverage said:


> The only one that really knows where this market is heading is Mr. Time....only time will tell where this market is headed



Be very careful too many have been trying to date his daughter in the market, Miss Time.


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## MovingAverage (11 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> ,
> Be very careful too many have been trying to date his daughter in the market, Miss Time.


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## frugal.rock (11 March 2020)

Gold sector, financials down a big hit.
Gold the biggest, XGD down a whopping 7.2%.... financials down 5.3%... no sector ended up, so I don't know 
where all the money has gone... again.
Considering the above, I got into a gold play (RXL) late today in anticipation of the money rushing back to gold maybe midday tomorrow...or before...?
I don't think that the gold sector is immune to Miss Time or Mr Market.

Miss Time and her sister Miss Read have been seen around town popping up everywhere... both well known for their unexpected arrivals... ones always late or early and still expects to be fed, the other is known for her gaps and slippage...Mr Market is trying to find a partner each for his daughter's, however, they think they are on the Bachelorette and just keep playing the field...

F.Rock


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## aus_trader (11 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Gold sector, financials down a big hit.
> Gold the biggest, XGD down a whopping 7.2%.... financials down 5.3%... no sector ended up, so I don't know
> where all the money has gone... again.
> Considering the above, I got into a gold play (RXL) late today in anticipation of the money rushing back to gold maybe midday tomorrow...or before...?
> ...



Awesome stuff man 

Yes they are good at playing it alright. Was playing hard to get for cheaper money a few days ago and got that from a couple of fellas, now looks like just crying out loud for some stimulus.


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## frugal.rock (11 March 2020)

What's with the large volume being traded?
Nearly every stock I look at is trading well above average volumes...?
Please explain? 

F.Rock


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## MovingAverage (12 March 2020)

Got to be honest, the market has got the better of me. I trade two different trend following systems and my swing system. I pretty much overrode all my systems today and closed out all my positions. I’ve found it mentally too tough to continue trading in this market despite what my backtesting tells me. So I’m now pretty much 100% cash (with the exception of a few discretionary positions). I give in.


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## sptrawler (12 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> What's with the large volume being traded?
> Nearly every stock I look at is trading well above average volumes...?
> Please explain?
> 
> F.Rock



Maybe the big super funds, have had a lot of 'baby boomers' close to retirement, ask to be changed over to cash?
Those with a year or two off retirement are probably saying, at least I will know how much money I have, to plan with.
I mean, if Moving Average has tossed in the towel, what would Joe average do.


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## qldfrog (12 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Got to be honest, the market has got the better of me. I trade two different trend following systems and my swing system. I pretty much overrode all my systems today and closed out all my positions. I’ve found it mentally too tough to continue trading in this market despite what my backtesting tells me. So I’m now pretty much 100% cash (with the exception of a few discretionary positions). I give in.



Sad but i understand, when I see the thousands lost everyday on a system i want to close anyway, i wonder as well and nearly did a manual sell for that system.
Not sure such a good move for your day system, you will have up and down in any trend..but true on today's red only market, where is the trend


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## InsvestoBoy (12 March 2020)

The trials and tribulations of a system trader during regime shift...a story in quotes...



MovingAverage said:


> Have to admit is was bloody tough placing my buy orders this morning knowing that the broader market was going to get absolutely smashed again today. My system generated a number of buy signals this morning but the voices in my head were telling me that I was completely loco and reminding me of the doomsday headlines running in the media about world markets experiencing their biggest single day crashes in years--apparently the media believes Armageddon is upon us. Despite my system simulations clearly showing me that my system performs well in market downturns it was tough with those voices going on in my head. Anyway, convinced myself to stick to the system rules and ignore those negative voices in my head and placed some sizable buy orders this morning--don't fail me now system. This trading game sure does mess with your head.
> 
> As someone once told me, plan the trade and trade the plan.






MovingAverage said:


> There will be some good buying that is for sure. As the saying goes...buy of fear sell on greed.






MovingAverage said:


> pffffft...who said the market was being slaughtered by the Corona virus  There's money to be had where others fear to tread.
> 
> Got to admit I pretty happy with today--I wish the market would crash more often . Stick to the rules of your system they say.






MovingAverage said:


> Morning ASFers, another day and another bunch of opportunities to be had (doing my best to keep a positive mindset).
> 
> Changed my usual morning routine this morning to help me deal with the head F...k I was dealing with yesterday as a result of the nasty overnight activity and news. First thing I normally do in the morning is to checkout the overnight activity to see what's been going on. Well this morning I didn't do that so I have no idea what has been going on, which made it a little easier to place my orders without the voices in my head tell me I was an idiot to participate in such a crap market. Ignorance is bliss they say. Interestingly, I did find myself wrestling with a little over-confidence this morning after my trades yesterday. At one stage I was contemplating upping my trade size, but talked myself out of it and sticking with my usual tried and tested position sizes.






MovingAverage said:


> I'll be adopting the same approach tomorrow as I did today--stick my head in the sand and ignore the overnight market activity.






MovingAverage said:


> I'm not a shorter but if I was I'd be all over index ETFs...there's sure to be a bucket load of cash to be made from shorting index ETFs at the moment.






MovingAverage said:


> I don't trust my discretion so I'll stay well clear of that.






MovingAverage said:


> Am I worried about trading my swing system in the current market...probably not.






MovingAverage said:


> Taking the same approach today...haven't looked at overnight activity.
> 
> Must admit I'm finding it mentally a lot easier to take positions in the bliss of ignorance that comes with completely ignoring media.






MovingAverage said:


> Have to be honest, I'm still very comfortable about trading this system in the current market but AVH does worry me a little, but I'm sticking to the system and will do what its telling me.






MovingAverage said:


> The market allows me to do what is important...so yes I think about it everyday






MovingAverage said:


> Here is where I have to come clean about an indiscretion--I'm pretty bloody minded about sticking to the rules of my systems and have been pretty good over the years, if my systems say buy I buy and if my systems say sell I sell...nothing more and nothing less matters. Well getting back to PRU--I entered it today at exactly 0.90. All well and good until I sit down at my computer around lunch time and notice PRU hovering around $1. Oh crap, I'm thinking to myself that's a good run up in price given this morning's open decline and I'm feeling a little nervous about giving up a circa 10% gain on PRU this morning particularly given the size of my trade and the unrealized healthy profit. I'm telling myself do nothing and run the system tonight as I should (it's an EOD for buy sell setups), but I caved in and hit the sell on PRU and bagged a little over 10% profit. I know I should have done nothing and run my system at close today, but I just couldn't ignore the profit given the crappy state of the market. Shame on me, so feel free to strip me of my system trader title and call me a discretionary trader from here on






MovingAverage said:


> My weekly system getting a beating now.
> 
> Oh well, drawdowns are part of the game I guess. Stay the course.






MovingAverage said:


> Have to admit, trading in this market is really starting to hurting my head but that is probably coming from looking at the performance of my trend following systems as opposed to the performance of my swing system (which seems to be holding up reasonably well and still picking up some profit here and there)
> 
> Can't wait for this bloody market to find some support.






MovingAverage said:


> Got to be honest, the market has got the better of me. I trade two different trend following systems and my swing system. I pretty much overrode all my systems today and closed out all my positions. I’ve found it mentally too tough to continue trading in this market despite what my backtesting tells me. So I’m now pretty much 100% cash (with the exception of a few discretionary positions). I give in.


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## MovingAverage (12 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Maybe the big super funds, have had a lot of 'baby boomers' close to retirement, ask to be changed over to cash?
> Those with a year or two off retirement are probably saying, at least I will know how much money I have, to plan with.
> I mean, if Moving Average has tossed in the towel, what would Joe average do.



I really do feel sorry for average Joe—his/her super will take a massive hit from this.


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## sptrawler (12 March 2020)

There is one thing for sure, this has given the novice investor, a taste of the 'real action' in the market.
This is more like the 1987 crash than the GFC IMO, you will probably be able to get a T shirt with the '2020 crash' on it soon.
The GFC China really cranked up stimulus, I certainly hope they do so again, but I wouldn't be holding my breath.


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## sptrawler (12 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> I really do feel sorry for average Joe—his/her super will take a massive hit from this.



Yes a mate of mine close to retirement, was asking a couple of weeks ago what I thought, I said it isn't my place to say but the market is high.
He hung on untill the virus hit, then hit the panic button, it will be interesting to see how much he is affected I will let you know the %.


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## MovingAverage (12 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> The trials and tribulations of a system trader during regime shift...a story in quotes...



At least I’m admitting defeat and can live to trade another day


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## InsvestoBoy (12 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> At least I’m admitting defeat and can live to trade another day




Hey don't get me wrong, not trying to make fun of you, I just thought your posts made a really good compilation of all the behavioural stuff that systems traders always end up eating during regime shifts.

It's easy to follow the system when everything is going your way.


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## MovingAverage (12 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Hey don't get me wrong, not trying to make fun of you, I just thought your posts made a really good compilation of all the behavioural stuff that systems traders always end up eating during regime shifts.
> 
> It's easy to follow the system when everything is going your way.




couldn’t agree more...it’s one thing seeing your systems trade through downturns in a backtest, but it’s another thing trying to live trade through this crap. But it is ironic people like you only come out and post when people like me admit defeat.


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## sptrawler (12 March 2020)

Yep these ones you either buckle up, or bail out


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## sptrawler (12 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> couldn’t agree more...it’s one thing seeing your systems trade through downturns in a backtest, but it’s another thing trying to live trade through this crap. But it is ironic people like you only come out and post when people like me admit defeat.



I think you did great, you held ground a lot longer than most would, but when you jump in and you can't feel the bottom eventually you have to come up for air.
One thing I personally have found, is you have to understand yourself, I have enough in cash that I actually don't worry.
At the end of the day you have to have a balance that you can live with, otherwise it will ruin your health and sometimes a marriage. Times like this put everything into perspective, people can only reason from experience, this is one of those experiences.
Just my opinion


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## sptrawler (12 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> I really do feel sorry for average Joe—his/her super will take a massive hit from this.



This is exactly the times, where the people that @Smurf talks about, get hurt the most.
Those between 55-67, in times like this they get laid off, their super has taken a hit and they are on newstart allowance. There is very little chance of re employment and they have to manage through to retirement age, you really have to feel for those especially IMO.
They seem to be the forgotten generation, that falls through the cracks.
Just my opinion.


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## frugal.rock (12 March 2020)

Here's a thought for systems traders...
What if you were to backtest daily 10 minute bars as if bars were daily?
So 35 bars per day equals 35 days, backtest over 5 days or 175 bars, the equivalent of 175 days...
Pick an equivalent volatile period for comparison?
Would that help as an idea?
Just a thought...
Wish you all the best Moving Average.
Maybe look at the long haul picture?
Z1P years low hit again today and pushed lower, NCZ & BUD same, TYR all time low..., EN1, etc
Sit back, watch the shite hit the fan, buy the ridiculously oversold that aren't immediately in the firing line, would love to short Qantas, Webjet etc but be prepared for the weakness, strength at the moment is pump dump material...

F.Rock


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## MovingAverage (12 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Here's a thought for systems traders...
> 
> Wish you all the best Moving Average.
> Maybe look at the long haul picture
> ...




You know f.rock...i've been posting everyday on this thread about my experience trading through this market and for the most part you (and @InvestoBoy) have been completely silent. Now that I admit defeat you decide it is time to post. Don't take me the wrong way, but I haven't seen you posting on ASF about your day-to-day experiences of trading through this market so I question the value of your comments. I guess it is pretty easy to come out and throw rocks when you have absolutely no skin in the game and I suspect you have just been sitting on the sidelines waiting for me to admit defeat so you could chime in on my thread. I'm a firm believer in the saying that if you don't have anything constructive to say then don't say anything at all


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## qldfrog (12 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> At the end of the day you have to have a balance that you can live with, otherwise it will ruin your health and sometimes a marriage. Times like this put everything into perspective, people can only reason from experience, this is one of those experiences.



excellent
But today for the first time I saw some values and put some buy for the open on monday based on P/E domain, non system ones not gold, not inverse index...
Pure solid companies I find now very cheap.time will tell;
But there is money to be made:
Sold more BBOZ another FMG put warrant..I know we have some FMG fans here: thanks!
in the last 6 weeks I bought 4 FMG warrants and 1 QAN for 85% return average, holding them an average of 8 days,,This is unheard of..well in my short history and no insider trading , jut normal news feed and this compensated all my systems portfolio capital losses..after as everyone, I lost a bucket on some gold miners or even ANN which has been very disappointing, but what I want to say is that there is money to be made in this crazy time too


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## frugal.rock (12 March 2020)

@Moving Average
I wished you all the best because I was in the same boat a while ago...?
Sold out and reset.
Sounds like my post hit a nerve, that certainly wasn't my intention.
Cudos for pulling out. I expect you will profit from it in the long term.
There's no ill will from me.
I don't trade a mechanical system, so I can't help in that regard?
The suggestion of the bars thing was more for comment or thought? I have no idea, just thought it might help with Miss Time and Miss Read....
Only trying to be helpful...
Can I ask if you created your own mechanical systems?

Butt out time for me... wonder what @barney is up to?

F.Rock
PS; I love systems traders.... makes my discretionary job easier.


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## CBerg (12 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> excellent
> But today for the first time I saw some values and put some buy for the open on monday based on P/E domain, non system ones not gold, not inverse index...
> Pure solid companies I find now very cheap.time will tell;
> But there is money to be made:
> ...



Sorry qldfrog, I can't tell if you're going long or short FMG? I'm interested in knowing what you think given your outlook has been negative on the corona virus to date.


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## Dona Ferentes (12 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Maybe the big super funds, have had a lot of 'baby boomers' close to retirement, ask to be changed over to cash?
> Those with a year or two off retirement are probably saying, "*ouch*"




for those BBs that have retired before now; hope the settings are right; the remainder, the younger cohort, would be squirming 







> *Baby boomer* _is a term used to describe a person who was born between 1946 and 1964_.


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## Dona Ferentes (12 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Got to be honest, the market has got the better of me. .... So I’m now pretty much 100% cash (with the exception of a few discretionary positions). I give in.



won't be full capitulation until you lose that ridiculous avatar !

But seriously, it's no longer shaking the tree and seeing what falls out; the whole forest is trembling.

Margin call LVRs must be tested with the rapid, prolonged and sustained falls. A 26% drop in just under 2 weeks; *unprecendented*!

And, landing on traders' desks of late (and over the next few days for the laggards, undecided/ nervous nellies and just plain confused) will be managed fund redemptions and Super fund switches (to cash). As these are _open ended, _they have to sell (only trouble is there are few buyers of the dross in these funds so the good stuff gets offloaded).


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## MovingAverage (12 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> won't be full capitulation until you lose that ridiculous avatar !
> 
> .




Really...my avatar. Guess I should change it to a ? so I have more credibility hey...seriously, I mean no offence but you’ve also been pretty silent since I started this thread and now you comment on my avatar. I give in...seems like some folks are happy to come out and comment now that I’ve thrown in the towel. Like I said earlier, easy to come t when you’re on the sidelines


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## Dona Ferentes (12 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Really...my avatar. Guess I should change it to a ? so I have more credibility hey...seriously, I mean no offence but you’ve also been pretty silent since I started this thread and now you comment on my avatar. I give in...seems like some folks are happy to come out and comment now that I’ve thrown in the towel. Like I said earlier, easy to come t when you’re on the sidelines



I'm not a trader. I have no 'system'. I have cash in the bank, enough for a year. (running short of toilet paper, though)

(actually, I commented on yr avatar briefly <cheap shot, I'll admit>, then moved to what I think are pertinent points as to why the selling, irrational as some think it is, might continue)


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## MovingAverage (12 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I have no 'system'.
> (actually, I commented on yr avatar briefly <cheap shot, I'll admit>




oh...a discretionary value trader, that makes sense now <cheap shot but we’re friends hey>. Would have been nice to get your genuine comments when I was posting about my trades as I was making them...I don’t lose sleep over my avatar, but thanks for your useful insight


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## Smurf1976 (12 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> This is exactly the times, where the people that @Smurf talks about, get hurt the most.
> Those between 55-67, in times like this they get laid off, their super has taken a hit and they are on newstart allowance. There is very little chance of re employment and they have to manage through to retirement age, you really have to feel for those especially IMO.



Yep - it's not my personal situation but I've seen quite a few go through it and if times are tough economically that 55 age can come down considerably.


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## sptrawler (12 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Yep - it's not my personal situation but I've seen quite a few go through it and if times are tough economically that 55 age can come down considerably.



I was out to dinner with a mate from over East last night, he is 66 and a maintenance planner, he said that the only way he can get a call back from a job application is to not mention his age in his CV.
It has been that way since he turned 50.


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## frugal.rock (12 March 2020)

Whilst I understand the emotions that are probably going through your head, take a few days off.... regather, regroup, get your head together, process the emotions that have led to this experience. Learn to recognise those emotions and stop and deal with them as they occur.
No one on the forum is responsible for your situation, the market could be blamed also, but we make our own beds so to speak.
You have ended a chapter in your book. Am interested in your next chapter. We're all on this journey together, are we not? 
As for the avatar...


Regards,
F.Rock


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## MovingAverage (12 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> No one on the forum is responsible for your situation, the market could be blamed also, but we make our own beds so to speak.
> You have ended a chapter in your book.
> 
> Regards,
> F.Rock





hmmm...while I appreciate your comforting words you seem to be suggesting I’ve blown up my my capital and that I’m looking for someone to blame. Nothing could be further from the truth...in total I’m at about 8% DD. My frustration comes from some recent posts from folks sitting on the sidelines who’ve been happy to sit on the side but now feel the need to comment given I’ve admitted the mental fortitude required to continue trading in this market is too much so I’ve closed all my positions. Thanks for the YouTube clip but I’ve got the DVD box set


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## frugal.rock (12 March 2020)

If there's no value input, I try not to post...Can't help myself sometimes though.
Personally sitting on -10.3% DD with 6.88% of that today alone! 
It was up 10% last weekend... from persistence and work for a month.
Was congrats myself on the situation...
No one's throwing stones...
Except maybe one, with hindsight, do you think it was wise ignoring/ being blissfully unaware of the markets overnight? 
If the NASDAQ is down 8% at closing, I certainly bloody well want to know about it. Something to consider when you get itchy again...

F.Rock


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## qldfrog (12 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> Sorry qldfrog, I can't tell if you're going long or short FMG? I'm interested in knowing what you think given your outlook has been negative on the corona virus to date.



I went short 4 times and usually doubled within the week.i doubt i would go long yet but did not check fmg price tonight
I just looked at industrial for long  like compushare etc which went 4y backward and have now reasonable pe with low expected negative impact from the virus or the economic recession


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## tinhat (12 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I went short 4 times and usually doubled within the week.i doubt i would go long yet but did not check fmg price tonight
> I just looked at industrial for long  like compushare etc which went 4y backward and have now reasonable pe with low expected negative impact from the virus or the economic recession



I listened to the grey butcher birds. That was before your post.


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## Triple B (13 March 2020)

Hey Moving average .
-8% is OK
Perhaps you need to add a "fuse" to your strategy.
In unusual downturns I reckon you need an external indicator to help to tell you when to stop going long.
Going against a strong downturn in the overall equity market will only end in losses.
You can also consider going short using CFDs. or try Bear ETFs .or gold and Silver stocks.
An indicator I have considered is https://www.marketindex.com.au/
the expected volatility indicator. No Long trades in the red zone. (except Gold , bear ETF)
BTW. First time on ASF in months.so I have only just read this thread.


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## aus_trader (13 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Yes a mate of mine close to retirement, was asking a couple of weeks ago what I thought, I said it isn't my place to say but the market is high.
> He hung on untill the virus hit, then hit the panic button, it will be interesting to see how much he is affected I will let you know the %.



One of my former workmates is already down 20% in Super, which hurts as he is retired. Looks like the market could go deeper though


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## tinhat (13 March 2020)

aus_trader said:


> One of my former workmates is already down 20% in Super, which hurts as he is retired. Looks like the market could go deeper though



Birds will still sing. The grey butcher birds around here are amazing. They remind me of fresh school kids in new shoes. Humans will still wears shoes. Have you looked at AX1. I don't hold.


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## frugal.rock (13 March 2020)

tinhat said:


> I listened to the grey butcher birds. That was before your post.



Good one tin head.


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## frugal.rock (13 March 2020)

tinhat said:


> Birds will still sing. The grey butcher birds around here are amazing. They remind me of fresh school kids in new shoes. Humans will still wears shoes. Have you looked at AX1. I don't hold.



Butcher birds rip the heads of little twurpy budgies...


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## aus_trader (13 March 2020)

tinhat said:


> Birds will still sing. The grey butcher birds around here are amazing. They remind me of fresh school kids in new shoes. Humans will still wears shoes. Have you looked at AX1. I don't hold.



Yes, have followed the stock for some time, all the way back to when they were 'Athlete's Foot' shoe retailer. Same company different name, but the retailer is not having any luck of holding it's share price in this environment, getting beaten down along with most other stocks.


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## frugal.rock (13 March 2020)

How does systems trading factor in these sort of movements?


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## tinhat (13 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Butcher birds rip the heads of little twurpy budgies...



So melodic though.


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## tinhat (13 March 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Yes, have followed the stock for some time, all the way back to when they were 'Athlete's Foot' shoe retailer. Same company different name, but the retailer is not having any luck of holding it's share price in this environment, getting beaten down along with most other stocks.



I'll probably buy some AX1 at some stage. I just like the call of those birds.


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## frugal.rock (13 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> You know f.rock...i've been posting everyday on this thread about my experience trading through this market and for the most part you (and @InvestoBoy) have been completely silent. Now that I admit defeat you decide it is time to post. Don't take me the wrong way, but I haven't seen you posting on ASF about your day-to-day experiences of trading through this market so I question the value of your comments. I guess it is pretty easy to come out and *throw rocks when you have absolutely no skin in the game* and *I suspect you have just been sitting on the sidelines waiting for me to admit defeat so you could chime in on my thread. I'm a firm believer in the saying that if you don't have anything constructive to say then don't say anything at all*



No rocks were thrown.
No skin in the game? What is this game you mention?
* "I suspect you have just been sitting on the sidelines waiting for me to admit defeat so you could chime in on my thread." *
Really? 

F.Rock


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## aus_trader (13 March 2020)

tinhat said:


> I'll probably buy some AX1 at some stage. I just like the call of those birds.



It's still falling hard along with markets around the world. I'll wait for things to settle down a bit before buying back into equities I think. AX1's yield is going up as it freefalls though


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## MovingAverage (13 March 2020)

Triple B said:


> Hey Moving average .
> -8% is OK
> Perhaps you need to add a "fuse" to your strategy.
> In unusual downturns I reckon you need an external indicator to help to tell you when to stop going long.
> ...




Agree. I’ve been trading three separate systems for many years. Two are trend following systems (one daily and the other weekly) and one is a swing system. Most of my 8% DD has come from the trend systems (particularly the weekly) but the swing system is marginally up (around 1.5%--no DD at the time I overrode it). The trend systems use a hybrid market filter so no long position setups in market down trend and both use trailing stops. Swing system doesn't use market filter and does have the safety net of a stop loss.

The real mental challenge for me has not been the performance of the swing system which this thread has been about, but my trend systems. Watching their performance has been a challenge. One of the things that bugs me about my trend systems is they don't involve intraday stops--they are EOD. Most of my DD has come from my weekly system where stops (exits) are only done at the end of the week and in this market where we are seeing 5% - 10% drops each day it makes for a very long week to look for exits on Fridays.

One of the things I'm going to explore is the addition of an intraday stop on my systems to address major downturns like we are experiencing now. I'll run some simulations over the weekend and see how it goes. 

I've been checking that volatility indicator on market index for a while now and I like it. Haven't thought about including it in a system but it's definitely worth considering


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## qldfrog (13 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Most of my DD has come from my weekly system where stops (exits) are only done at the end of the week and in this market where we are seeing 5% - 10% drops each day it makes for a very long week to look for exits on Fridays.



Sharing the pain and i still have 50pc invested in these 2 weekly systems which are in free fall...


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## MovingAverage (13 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Sharing the pain and i still have 50pc invested in these 2 weekly systems which are in free fall...




I don't know how you are holding those positions in your weekly...mine has been doing my head in so overrode it despite tightening my stops last week--I couldn't wait until today for the exit signals that I knew were coming anyway.


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## barney (13 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> [COLOR=#000000]Butt out time for me... wonder what barney is up to?[/COLOR]





ps sorry about the type … couldn't fix it

[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]Bit like the movie Frugal ….. "No Country for Old Men"  Bear moves are "No Country for a Spec Trader"[/FONT][/COLOR]

[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]Like anyone whose been in the market while this has hit I'm well down but hopefully come out the other side with half a shirt and a couple of cans of baked beans![/FONT][/COLOR]

[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]Its a tough market unless you have been shorting Index's  …… but I'd be extra careful trying to do that today ….. should be a Friday bounce in the Futs given the sell off again last night. [/FONT][/COLOR]

[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]Low profile for me at the moment while I apply extra band aids  ( Good luck all.)[/FONT][/COLOR]


[ATTACH=full]101282[/ATTACH]


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## Knobby22 (13 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> hmmm...while I appreciate your comforting words you seem to be suggesting I’ve blown up my my capital and that I’m looking for someone to blame. Nothing could be further from the truth...in total I’m at about 8% DD. My frustration comes from some recent posts from folks sitting on the sidelines who’ve been happy to sit on the side but now feel the need to comment given I’ve admitted the mental fortitude required to continue trading in this market is too much so I’ve closed all my positions. Thanks for the YouTube clip but I’ve got the DVD box set




I wouldn't worry. I bet you many are not actually on the sidelines and have been frozen into inaction.
I, as a fundamental investor sold everything 3 weeks ago but held on to 15% of my shares, I do not know why in hindsight.

I am absolutely sure you are doing better than most and you have got a good experience to remember (and learn from) also.


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## MovingAverage (13 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> I am absolutely sure you are doing better than most and you have got a good experience to remember (and learn from) also.




I've just been looking at the performance of my three portfolios and I've weathered the storm reasonably well given the broader market heavy sell off. My daily trend system is down 3.57% since the start of the year and down 1.44% since the start of this month. My weekly trend system is down 7.68% since the start of the year and down 3.15% since the start of this month. My swing system is up around 3% since the start of the year and down around 5% since the start of this month. Overall I'm down around 8% since the start of the year across all three portfolios.


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## Skate (13 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> I've just been looking at the performance of my three portfolios and I've weathered the storm reasonably well given the broader market heavy sell off. My daily trend system is down 3.57% since the start of the year and down 1.44% since the start of this month. My weekly trend system is down 7.68% since the start of the year and down 3.15% since the start of this month. My swing system is up around 3% since the start of the year and down around 5% since the start of this month. Overall I'm down around 8% since the start of the year across all three portfolios.




@MovingAverage - well done !!


Skate.


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## MovingAverage (13 March 2020)

Skate said:


> @MovingAverage - well done !!
> View attachment 101296
> 
> Skate.




You know in isolation those numbers aren't bad and under normal circumstances wouldn't alarm me as they are well within the system bounds...but with all the negative news spinning around my head got the better of me. I only started trading on the tail-end of the 08 crash so this is the first major downturn I've traded through. It's one thing simulating a system through a crash but it's a whole other thing trying to live trade through this on a day to day basis.


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## MovingAverage (13 March 2020)

Opening up AB everyday to see this really tested me


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## frugal.rock (13 March 2020)

Am envious of your position.
As said, well done! 
You or your systems have managed minimal DD and you are now in a position where you can exploit the situation, not if it picks up again, but when it does.
After contemplating your withdrawal, have also decided to let the portfolio sit inactive for a while, active trading is also doing my head in, not so much from the DD (which has increased today...) but from the market delays, ie orders are slow, data was worse today than it's been all week etc. I can't trade under these conditions! These conditions go against my trading style, as if conditions aren't hard enough as is.
Cheers, no schadenfreude on my part to anyone.

F.Rock


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## MovingAverage (13 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Am envious of your position.
> As said, well done!
> You or your systems have managed minimal DD and you are now in a position where you can exploit the situation, not if it picks up again, but when it does.
> After contemplating your withdrawal, have also decided to let the portfolio sit inactive for a while, active trading is also doing my head in, not so much from the DD (which has increased today...) but from the market delays, ie orders are slow, data was worse today than it's been all week etc. I can't trade under these conditions! These conditions go against my trading style, as if conditions aren't hard enough as is.
> ...



Crazy times indeed. We all need to sleep at night so we all need to do what allows us to sleep. I can’t deal with the volatility...can’t believe how the market rallied this afternoon, I guess the bargain hunters are coming out. Must admit I was expecting some issues with my broker this past week but haven’t experienced too many problems, but I did find the price discovery exercise yesterday on a few of my sells very frustrating.


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## frugal.rock (13 March 2020)

A you tube doco I saw on Quant/ Algorithm trading said some well known large brokers physically position their trading computer network as close as possible to the exchanges in order to gain those milliseconds of advantage... most important for the algos.
With days like these, that advantage is priceless.
I put a sell order in at 4:07pm today... it sat on "processing" status forever.
It missed the close and is sitting on manual... The processing status is usually a second or two...
Bottom feeders such as myself suffer despite being classed as a "high value customer" by broker, that just means I will change brokers next week.
Goodbye Westpac, hello Selfwealth.
F.Rock


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## MovingAverage (13 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> A you tube doco I saw on Quant/ Algorithm trading said some well known large brokers physically position their trading computer network as close as possible to the exchanges in order to gain those milliseconds of advantage... most important for the algos.
> With days like these, that advantage is priceless.
> I put a sell order in at 4:07pm today... it sat on "processing" status forever.
> It missed the close and is sitting on manual... The processing status is usually a second or two...
> ...




They sure do...do some research on a guy call Josh Levine, absolutely amazing back story and history on US high frequency trading. Not so relevant in Australia but Josh's history really gives you some insight into the amazing world of US high frequency trading. There's a book called "Dark Pools", great read.


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## aus_trader (13 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> but from the market delays, ie orders are slow, data was worse today than it's been all week etc. I can't trade under these conditions! These conditions go against my trading style, as if conditions aren't hard enough as is.




This is exactly what I experienced, near frozen unresponsive trading platform, would've been stranded/killed if I needed to liquidate or cover my downside in a hurry such as in short-term or day-trading !


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## frugal.rock (13 March 2020)

Found it, wanted to watch it again.
While it's generalised, am sure most would get something out of it.
Cheers.


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## sptrawler (13 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> You know in isolation those numbers aren't bad and under normal circumstances wouldn't alarm me as they are well within the system bounds...but with all the negative news spinning around my head got the better of me. I only started trading on the tail-end of the 08 crash so this is the first major downturn I've traded through. It's one thing simulating a system through a crash but it's a whole other thing trying to live trade through this on a day to day basis.



Next time you will be a lot better prepared, there is no way you can learn this experience, other than living it.
I smile when younger people say, you were lucky you lived through the 1987 stock market crash and made a bomb, no one makes a bomb living through it the first time.
The second time you, have half your money on the side, so that you can nibble away and add to your income stocks.
Being all in, is what catches people, when these once in a lifetime events happen every 10 years.


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## frugal.rock (13 March 2020)

[QUOTE="sptrawler, post: 1061254, member: 28038]
Being all in, is what catches people, when these once in a lifetime events happen every 10 years.[/QUOTE]
These lifetime events... that happen every 10 year's... hahaha, will I be ready for the next one? You betcha, unless I become an unfashionable statistic meanwhile...
F.Rock


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## aus_trader (14 March 2020)

This volatility is setting records, another one as 'the largest one day turnaround' to go down in history on this spooky Friday the 13th 




Does anyone have a crystal ball to look into the near future to see if this is the bottom or a short-term bounce ?


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## frugal.rock (14 March 2020)

aus_trader said:


> This volatility is setting records, another one as 'the largest one day turnaround' to go down in history on this spooky Friday the 13th
> 
> View attachment 101339
> 
> ...



Quite uncanny you ask re; is this the bottom or short term bounce....as I was just running a few thought processes on this matter.
Short answer yes and no on both...

Most people have got wind of the markets dropping by now...
However, it's likely that Monday will bring a new set or wave of investors/ trader's to the fore, looking to offload.
Then, there's the bargain hunters, probably going for the market darlings that have been hammered.

Then we can consider that the market closed +4.5% on a sharp high with a trading range of ~15% today!

I would expect that it continues on that sharp rise Monday morning for a period, before you know what...

It's a bit like a boulder full pelt down a hill, hits a sideways log, goes flying up...at a guess, it's halfway up on this bounce, so another +%5 or so before the inevitable...

As long as the virus is promoted by the press, it's a bear market overall, but with swings of 15%...at the moment, the short trade seems to be enticing...turn the charts upside down, mirror image so it's still going left to right and look at it from the going long perspective... just a thought.
Pretty sure China is close to being back or capable of being back to full production. No new cases, virus fairly contained.

F.Rock


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## fiftyeight (15 April 2020)

fiftyeight said:


> I also made my biggest purchase in a while today, more gold through SAR. I don't think it is what you meant though




Well that was a long 'long trade' and the opportunity cost is likely higher than any profit I do take.

I got a number of things wrong on this one, like a lot.

Now have my 'mental' SL is at BE while I decide what to do longer term


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