# ESG - Eastern Star Gas



## yogi-in-oz (11 December 2005)

Hi folks,

ESG ..... almost primed for another rally.

Would like to see this one test 10.5 and
bounce, with good supporting volume.

For most of December 2005, ESG will
should us an underlying negative tone,
until about 29122005 ..... 

Other key dates for ESG may be:

19122005 ..... negative news ???

29122005 ..... significant spotlight on ESG


Early January 2006 should see a continued,
negative tone ..... ending around 09012006:


09012006 ... significant and positive news

13012006 ... minor and positive

18012006 ..... significant changes for
longer-term.

27-30012006 ..... significant news, but
a flat period here ???

01-07022006 ..... flat period??

13022006 ... significant & negative news??

24-27022006 ... spotlight negative???

03-06032006 ..... significant and negative??

14032006 ..... change in finances???

28032006 ..... management changes???

13042006 ..... negative and finance-related???

21-24042006 ..... news of board changes???

27-28042006 ..... 2 cycles here ... significant
                            and positive

happy days

yogi


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## ALFguy (6 October 2006)

Anyone watching this? In blue sky territory now up 15% today with big volume.

Looking VERY good


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## Sean K (6 October 2006)

You on it Alf?

Looks like most things with the word 'gas' in them are going off due to the STO/QGC thingy.

Not sure how much they all have left to run. Could be all over very quickly and the punters get caught with their pants down......and no chair.


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## ALFguy (6 October 2006)

No, not in, bit worried it's too late.

Still seems to have legs in it yet though and could surprise.


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## Halba (10 October 2006)

Whats to say its over. Fundamentals look pretty undervalued, its getting the re-rating it deserves?


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## mpv (8 December 2006)

*breakout*

Announcement of new production well being tested.


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## Novski (12 December 2006)

This one seems to have got away without much attention. Some great gains lately.

Unusual price reversal in Aug?Sep, but volume on its side...still. 

Halba may have been on it..


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## surfingman (17 March 2007)

*ESG Eastern Star Gas Limited*

Market Cap 483,680,179 shares @	0.32  *154,777,657.28*

NSW gas exploration and production

*Electricity Generation (100% interest)
(Wilga Park Power Station)*
The Narrabri Power Project has been developed by the Company to commercialise gas reserves at the Coonarah Gas Field, NSW first commercial conventional gas field, located 20 kms west of the important regional agricultural centre of Narrabri (PEL 238). The Project is the sole undertaking of the Company's wholly owned subsidiary Narrabri Power Limited ("NPL"), and comprises:

• Petroleum Production Lease 3, including the Coonarah Gas Field;

• A gas gathering and processing system to deliver gas from the Coonarah field, to the power station site at Wilga Park, 12 kilometres west of Narrabri, on land owned by the Company;

• A power station comprising 12 X 1 MW Jenbacher gas reciprocating engines and generating sets with four associated 415 V to 11 kV transformers;

• A high voltage switchyard, including an 11 kV to 66 kV step-up transformer to deliver power station output into an existing 66 kV transmission line adjacent to the power station site; and

• A 10 year Power Purchase Agreement ("PPA") with Country Energy for the sale of all power station output. 



*Memorandum of Understanding with Macquarie Generation*
On 13 March 2007, the Economic Entity together with joint venture partner Gastar Exploration Ltd of the Gunnedah Basin Gas Project (Coal Seam Gas) Joint Venture concluded a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with NSW Government-owned electricity generator Macquarie Generation to investigate the supply of coal seam gas for the expansion of its Bayswater Power Station.

 Under the MOU, Macquarie Generation will investigate the use of gas fired power generation within the Bayswater Power Station and the parties will jointly investigate the installation of a 300 kilometre high pressure gas transmission pipeline linking Narrabri to Bayswater. 

There is potential for long term gas supply and purchase agreement of up to 500 petajoules in total, on successful implementation of the objectives of the MOU.


*
PEL 238
Gunnedah Basin, New South Wales
Coal Seam Gas Rights
Interest 65%*

The Bibblewindi wells are located approximately 500 metres apart and are located in the southern portion of the 265 square kilometre Bohena Project Area, which contains up to 3,700 PJ (Petajoules), equivalent to approximately
3.7 trillion cubic feet (TCF), of gas-in-place within two sets of coal measures. 

The nine wells are complemented by a pressure monitor well, located 2 kilometres to the north of the production wells, which has been completed in
order to potentially increase the amount of gas reserves that can be certified by the production pilot. 

Certification of even a modest part of this in-place resource (3,700 PJ) as Proved and Probable reserves (2P) would support significant gas sales contracts. The Company is targeting up to 200 PJ of 2P reserves by end of year 2007.



*PEL 8/422/424
Darling Basin, New South Wales
Interest 100%*
Farmout attempts are continuing in order to fund the drilling of up to three wells in PEL 8/422/424. 

All the prospects delineated by the Company in the Darling Basin have some associated (coincident) surface gas-seep anomalism. The potential to host significant oil and/or natural gas accumulations is as follows:

Nyngenderry-1 (PEL 8) 100 Petajoules of gas or 100 million barrels of oil
Burnamwood-1 (PEL 422) 700 Petajoules of gas or 350 million barrels of oil
Netallie-1 (PEL 424) 2,000 Petajoules of gas or 800 million barrels of oil

These exploration licences are strategically located abreast the under-utilised Moomba-Sydney gas pipeline, and are untested by any modern petroleum exploration.


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## surfingman (17 March 2007)

Any thoughts on this one? I think it was chops pointed it out a potential break out yesterday.


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## chops_a_must (17 March 2007)

surfingman said:
			
		

> Any thoughts on this one? I think it was chops pointed it out a potential break out yesterday.



It was Jimminy who re-discovered it.

There are a few good articles on ESG at:
http://petroleumnews.net/search.asp?cSearch=ESG&sectionid=&commodityid=&regionid=&featureid=

Would like to start a thread on CSM stocks in the future, comparing certified and potential reserves against the market caps of the various companies etc. Because the whole sector is going gang busters right now.


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## surfingman (17 March 2007)

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...leaner-gas-deal/2007/03/13/1173722467033.html

a good overview, chops im not a member so cant use that link unfortunately thanks anyway.


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## chops_a_must (17 March 2007)

surfingman said:
			
		

> http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...leaner-gas-deal/2007/03/13/1173722467033.html
> 
> a good overview, chops im not a member so cant use that link unfortunately thanks anyway.



Just keep signing up for free on the trial with hotmail accounts. Easy.


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## surfingman (17 March 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Just keep signing up for free on the trial with hotmail accounts. Easy.





Okay ill do that now, will be interesting to read some more news on the gas sector..


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## Dukey (17 April 2007)

Up a couple of cents today and approaching highs. Volume nothing spectacular but probably above average?
Could this one be the next CSM player to take a run?? - hope so since I'm in finally .


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## Jimminy (17 April 2007)

Dukey said:


> Up a couple of cents today and approaching highs. Volume nothing spectacular but probably above average?
> Could this one be the next CSM player to take a run?? - hope so since I'm in finally .




Dukey the past week has been quite positive for ESG' sp. However the market has been kind to many stocks including CSM players.

In saying this, ESG has been challenging resistance at 32.5-33c - historical.

We are having reasonable volume 1-3 million per day in the last week. To me this points to a reducing of resistance at these levels. In the absence of any announcements from the company I don't think we will be going too far "just" yet, however I have been patient with ESG for last year and am happy to wait as my AOE are making plenty enough profit.

6-12 months time ESG will look significantly cheap looking back at 33c. The deal with Bayswater is positive & reinforcing to shareholders. We have the gas - give us time to prove it up and you will be rewarded.

MEL is another chops has done well with - similar prospects to ESG over the next 12-18 months.

You have to be patient with stocks like ESG; but once the momentum gets behind the stock (aka AOE) it will be a rewarding experience knowing you were in early.


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## Dukey (18 April 2007)

Yep - one reason I chose this one in particular is that it hasn't (yet) had the big gains the other CSMers have had >> therefor great potential I feel - especially since the Gas and deals seem to be there for the taking. Should lift nicely when the reserves are proved up - and possible T/O target as well considering recent history in this sector.
I'm happy to put them away and wait......


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## chops_a_must (18 April 2007)

Good stuff Dukey. ESG has some of the best fundamentals in the sector. Not as much fun to trade as MEL recently (small amount of shares and market cap makes that great), but the very tight sideways consolidation bodes well for this one.

Cheers,
Chops.


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## Dukey (18 April 2007)

No complaints on this end !!!
I thought I might have to wait a little longer but ..... 
(I`ll shutup now to avoid casting a jinx!!)


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## nizar (7 May 2007)

Dukey said:


> No complaints on this end !!!
> I thought I might have to wait a little longer but .....
> (I`ll shutup now to avoid casting a jinx!!)




Gee this one did aight today.
Volume as well.
And one of those depths that i really like.
Total sellers = 1,050,000
Total buyers = 5,150,000 
Looks like itll be a good week


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## chops_a_must (8 May 2007)

nizar said:


> Gee this one did aight today.
> Volume as well.
> And one of those depths that i really like.
> Total sellers = 1,050,000
> ...



This stock has developed some volatility hasn't it or what? geez. Up and down 10% in a day is nothing. Lol! After two months of moving a maximum of one tick in a day when I first entered. 

Great report out today. But the action at the end of last week almost seemed like inside buying... results aren't due out for a few months... The last well is on pump, so they must be onto exactly what they want if price action is anything to go by. 

It does look to be running hot, but there will be time for more entries on this over the next couple of months as certification nears.

Cheers,
Chops.


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## nizar (8 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> It does look to be running hot, but there will be time for more entries on this over the next couple of months as certification nears.




Chops.
I do agree that there will be time for more entries, but the question is, at what price ?


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## Jimminy (8 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Great report out today. But the action at the end of last week almost seemed like inside buying...




Chops,  you are right about ESG. Insider trading is forming a pattern with this one. I follow this stock closely daily.

In the days leading up to the Bayswater announcement it moved with big bids lulling in.

Last Friday the big bids came in again - particularly a big one at 39c. It was this bid that moved up at open yesterday to 41.5 and then 15 minutes after open moved up to take their purchase at 42.5c.

A number of big buyers were active again this morning at open with profit takers this evening driving it back to yesterday's close of 44c.

The next few weeks and months should be very interesting.


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## chops_a_must (21 May 2007)

Jimminy said:


> Chops,  you are right about ESG. Insider trading is forming a pattern with this one. I follow this stock closely daily.
> 
> In the days leading up to the Bayswater announcement it moved with big bids lulling in.
> 
> ...




It looks like that whole "insider buying" thing is happening again. Pushing up on low volumes early, but now with bigger bids coming in. Obviously, another announcement is coming soon...


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## nizar (21 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> It looks like that whole "insider buying" thing is happening again. Pushing up on low volumes early, but now with bigger bids coming in. Obviously, another announcement is coming soon...




Above 45c would be an alltime high closing price and i suspect we may get that 2mrw.
This one range traded a bit between 41c-43c until today.
I suspect this will be start of the next run.
Looks to me like top up time in my opinion...


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## Jimminy (22 May 2007)

t'was a good day for most CSM plays of mine yesterday. 

On an individual basis perhaps there is movement at the station. It made (VERY) light work of 44c yesterday. : 

Let's see if it can make light work of 45c today. Bit of resistance at these levels I feel.


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## Jimminy (23 May 2007)

It certainly did make mince work of the 45c yesterday morning but then met resistance at this level but only very small volume between 44-45c...time to get a move along  .:whip 

Sellers are drying up at this level now and I think it is near its next leg up.

Slow and steady...


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## Jimminy (24 May 2007)

Very very tight consolidation - another closing high, this time 45c. Lesser volume yesterday however compared to previous days.

Just having a nice nap yesterday but at the same time reaching a further high :sleeping:

Can feel one of these days coming on very soon:beat:


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## Jimminy (28 May 2007)

:beat::beat::beat::

Yep, one of those days...


Loving the CSM sector at present......popcorn:


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## nizar (28 May 2007)

Well it took its time i thought last week the breakout but i suspect it will be worth it.

Running on volume now making new highs constantly 

Looks to me like the start of the next run...


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## Jimminy (28 May 2007)

likewise Nizar, only a few days out for a 10% gain.... we certainly can't complain.

A good move by ESG today.

48c close.


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## chops_a_must (28 May 2007)

Jimminy said:


> likewise Nizar, only a few days out for a 10% gain.... we certainly can't complain.
> 
> A good move by ESG today.
> 
> 48c close.



I've been quiet on this one as it has been overshadowed by some of my other stocks, lol! Not that that is a bad thing!

But surely, this is as bullish as it gets. Stocks closing on their highs, above the previous intraday high, is always a deal sealer for me when it comes to strong breaks. This had decent volume as well (although not as good as previous breakouts). I have been waiting for a signal to pyramid in to this stock, and today certainly gave it off. An open above 48c tomorrow morning will confirm another outstanding breakout for this outstanding stock.

I'll be looking to take some money off the table should this get into the 60s. It's been very good to me. 

There looks to be a bit of confluence about 50c, so that is the obvious obstacle and possible open tomorrow. But I think on this run it should get to the high 50s at least...


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## Jimminy (31 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> I've been quiet on this one as it has been overshadowed by some of my other stocks, lol! Not that that is a bad thing!




Yep, some of us on here have cleaned up very nicely on our csm plays this year. AOE is making me a killing at present - certainly not a bad thing! Been a bit like this of late with some of my csm stocks!! :jerry

ESG is still my favourite though :1luvu: - I want to watch this stock grow in the next few years.

It's a pity alot of people don't know about the CSM sector at present - easy money. The ride is only just beginning for a lot of these companies.

ESG close of 49c. But yes, Chops, fair bit of resistance at 49c to punch through. Slowly chipping away.:hammer:


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## Jimminy (1 June 2007)

Jimminy said:


> fair bit of resistance at 49c to punch through. Slowly chipping away.:hammer:




Don't worry about chip away - just do this :rocketwho

50c breached with a close of 51c (intra-day high) and another excellent day's volume of 3.6m shares traded.

Monday should be interesting.


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## Jimminy (4 June 2007)

Jimminy said:


> Monday should be interesting.




52c close for this blue sky stock......fairly paltry in comparison to other csm plays today though - Buyers a bit apprehensive at these levels though :couch


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## Jimminy (5 June 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> It looks like that whole "insider buying" thing is happening again. Obviously, another announcement is coming soon...




600,000 bid taken at open for .525.......

Worth noting that big bids have historically come in for ESG in the day or days leading up to a market sensitive announcement.


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## Jimminy (5 June 2007)

Jimminy said:


> 52c close for this blue sky stock......fairly paltry in comparison to other csm plays today though - Buyers a bit apprehensive at these levels though :couch




I take that back - buying with gusto today. Another 3m volume....

:bier: 54c close - another blue sky close.


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## nizar (12 June 2007)

The tail to 50c and a white candle 2day, looks to me like the start of the next uptrend.

Im gonna top up at 2mrws open.

This one is textbook


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## Jimminy (13 June 2007)

54c close again - very few on offer under 54c today on a down day.

Bodes well if the market can pick itself up and dust itself off. Look for this to go higher has found good support at 50c in past week.


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## nizar (15 June 2007)

Jimminy said:


> 54c close again - very few on offer under 54c today on a down day.
> 
> Bodes well if the market can pick itself up and dust itself off. Look for this to go higher has found good support at 50c in past week.




This is gonna run today.
Positive overnight lead, a blue sky close yesterday, and in the right sector.

The sell side is a joke.


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## Sprinter79 (19 June 2007)

Going great guns today!!!

Moderate volume with a thinish sell side.

Can it hold above 60c?

Is there an announcement due soon?


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## Sprinter79 (20 June 2007)

Well, it held above 60c, and has gone up another 7% this morning. 

Buy side thin again, with some slight resistance to be had at 68c I reckon.

The price will possibly bounce around between 61 and 68c just looking at the market depth.


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## nizar (20 June 2007)

Sprinter79 said:


> Well, it held above 60c, and has gone up another 7% this morning.
> 
> Buy side thin again, with some slight resistance to be had at 68c I reckon.
> 
> The price will possibly bounce around between 61 and 68c just looking at the market depth.




Bro this stock is very textbook.
Almost always pulls back to the previous peak. Gives you ample opportunity to pyramid into it.

This stock is a winner.

Nothing crazy, but slow and steady wins the race


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## Sprinter79 (20 June 2007)

Hehehe, I know someone who'll be pissed off that they engaged in a bit of premature 'coitus interuptus'


But he put me on to this one, so I can't stay mad at him..... awwwwwww


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## Jimminy (25 June 2007)

it's a nice thought to think that there hasn't been an update from the Bibblewindi pilot for quite a while now - yet ESG has just hit 70c so it could be that inside information if aware of something more than just the Bibblewindi flow rates.

Not a text book outstanding breakout:, but an outstanding performance in the last month from this blue sky stock that many still choose to ignore.


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## Sprinter79 (25 June 2007)

Another 6% rise today. Touching on a 50% increase for me 

I'm gonna go out a limb here and say that there might be some profit taking once it gets well into the 70c's.


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## Jimminy (25 June 2007)

most people aware of csm co. like ESG shouldn't even consider profit taking at present.

If they are, well good luck to them because they have made a lot of money like me . 

But I need/want to know where they are putting their money that they take out of ESG because I still think ESG is one of the best stories out for short, medium long term capital gains.


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## nizar (25 June 2007)

Jimminy said:


> most people aware of csm co. like ESG shouldn't even consider profit taking at present.
> 
> If they are, well good luck to them because they have made a lot of money like me .
> 
> But I need/want to know where they are putting their money that they take out of ESG because I still think ESG is one of the best stories out for short, medium long term capital gains.




Im not even considering selling.
Why not?

Because this is still very much on a strong uptrend.

Where will it peak?
Maybe 70c was the top?
Maybe $1.70 in a few months, maybe $7 in a few years.

Hard to say.
But one things for sure -- im gonna ride this for as long and as hard as i possibly can.


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## Sprinter79 (25 June 2007)

Well, it looks like that limb I went out on is very thin indeed, almost as thin as the line of sellers hahaha


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## Jimminy (25 June 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> I'll be looking to take some money off the table should this get into the 60s. It's been very good to me.




Hope you were greedy Chops, and didn't sell in the 60s.

Cos, if you didn't you would have been like me today....


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## malachii (12 July 2007)

ESG in a trading halt - progress update looks pretty positive at first glance.  Let's see how the market reacts!!

malachii


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## malachii (12 July 2007)

Well - market seems to like it - shares up almost 10% (64.5cents) with some pretty decent buy depths!

malachii


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## malachii (12 July 2007)

ESG has gone back into pre open for another announcement - what is this?????  The coal seamers are going off with announcements today!!

malachii


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## Jimminy (12 July 2007)

we now have a firmer date for reserves certification (target 50-100pj - 2p). Due end of September.

We also have Gastar to farm out exploration for another tenement.


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## Jimminy (20 July 2007)

Recent announcement that ESG will spin off some of their assets into another company to be called Orion with a capital raising to fund exploration.

Should see some cheap shares for ESG holders in ORION. Expect this to run a bit now.

Has been having an eratic consolidation in the high 50s - high 60s.....but a consolidation none the less. 10% gain today.


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## surfingman (10 August 2007)

This might be worth a listening into:


Gastar Exploration Announces Second Quarter Earnings and Conference Call Schedule

HOUSTON, Aug 09, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- 

Gastar Exploration Ltd. (AMEX:GST) and (TSX:YGA) announced today that it will release second quarter 2007 results on Tuesday, August 14, 2007 after the market closes. In conjunction with the release, Gastar has scheduled a conference call, which will be broadcast live over the Internet, for Wednesday, August 15, 2007 at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time (10:00 a.m. Central). 


   What:  Gastar's Second Quarter 2007 Earnings Conference Call
   When:  Wednesday, August 15, 2007 - 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time
   How:   Live via phone - By dialing (303) 262-2137 and asking for
           the Gastar call at least 10 minutes prior to the start
           time.
          Live over the Internet - by logging on to the web at the
           address below.
   Where: http://www.gastar.com. The webcast can be accessed from the
           investor relations home page.



For those who cannot listen to the live call, a telephonic replay will be available through August 22, 2007, and may be accessed by calling (303) 590-3000, using pass code 11094959. Also, an archive of the webcast will be available shortly after the call on the Company's website at www.gastar.com for at least 90 days. 

Gastar Exploration Ltd. is an exploration and production company focused on finding and developing natural gas assets in North America and Australia. The Company pursues a strategy combining select higher risk, deep natural gas exploration prospects with low-risk coal bed methane (CBM) development. The Company owns and controls exploration and development acreage in the deep Bossier gas play of East Texas. Gastar's CBM activities are conducted within the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and upon the approximate 3.0 million acres controlled by Gastar and its joint development partners in Australia's Gunnedah Basin (PEL 238), located in New South Wales, and the Gippsland Basin (EL 4416), located in Victoria. 

SOURCE: Gastar Exploration Ltd.


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## Jimminy (12 September 2007)

Jimminy said:


> we now have a firmer date for reserves certification (target 50-100pj - 2p). Due end of September.
> 
> We also have Gastar to farm out exploration for another tenement.




Looks like we might be getting our reserves certification results this Friday - in trading halt til then.

Combined with a high profile ex-beauracrat in John Anderson as the new Chairman, things continue to look good for this co.


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## bigdog (14 September 2007)

ASX announcement today
ESG  	10:00 AM  	\Suspension from Official Quotation
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00759164

suspended awaiting material announcement


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## Jimminy (12 November 2007)

Another superb announcement from this sleeping giant.

Signed an MOU with Babcock and Brown to supply 40pJ/a to a gas fire power station for a gas fire station in northern NSW....


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## Dukey (20 November 2007)

Anyone have any opinions re- the Orion spin-off/float (whatever?).
Seems to be some good potential in the tenements going to Orion. But not sure what the motivation is to spin-off. Is it just so they can be explored and developed faster?
-D


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## Jimminy (21 November 2007)

Dukey said:


> Anyone have any opinions re- the Orion spin-off/float (whatever?).
> Seems to be some good potential in the tenements going to Orion. But not sure what the motivation is to spin-off. Is it just so they can be explored and developed faster?
> -D




pretty much Dukey...plus two other factors. (1) They had trouble finding others to farm in; & (2) spinning off the assets creates less dilution for ESG shareholders from any required capital raising. 

Purely speculative but it is good prospective areas they have with an experienced team.


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## grace (24 January 2008)

Nice announcement just out....tripled their gas resource and only 1% drilled to date.  The announcement states that they hold PEL on the biggest onshore gas.  Now they have secured drill rig for 2008, hopefully they will be getting stuck into it.  The sleeping giant in my opinion.  I hold.


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## grace (26 January 2008)

grace said:


> Nice announcement just out....tripled their gas resource and only 1% drilled to date.  The announcement states that they hold PEL on the biggest onshore gas.  Now they have secured drill rig for 2008, hopefully they will be getting stuck into it.  The sleeping giant in my opinion.  I hold.




Do any of you still hold ESG?  Or perhaps you have all gone, and that is why I am carrying losses.  Would anyone more educated than myself (which I'm sure is all of you) like to offer opinions on the latest reserve announcement, and what value should be placed on ESG?  Say compared to QGC, Arrow or can we not compare???  ESG only drilled 1% of their basin!


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## Jimminy (26 January 2008)

Grace - I have been out since the end of last year....definetly a good call in hindsight.

But if it drops back into the 20's again I will re-enter.

With the amount of coreholes they are going to drill this year and some more productions pilots (alot more expensive to do than coreholes) I expect some good upside to their reserves to be certified throughout the year.

The # of coreholes and the extapolation the certifiers can use for modelling will assist.

The $48m in the bank - a big tick to management and their prospects over the coming years.


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## grace (3 February 2008)

Just looking at reserves to capitalisation

ESG  MC $235 million

1P  =  21 PJ
2P  =  185  PJ  Certified
3P =  1300 PJ  Proven, Probable & Possible

QGC  MC = $2.5 billion

1P =  477
2P  = 1314  Certified
3P  =  3116  P, P & P

What is 1P?

Eastern Star Gas have drilled about 1% to date, with drilling to be ramped up this year.  
I guess QGC can just find the stuff and pipe straight through to Brissy or Gladstone.  ESG have to build 200km pipeline to supply down to Sydney from memory, although they are supplying locally until then. 
Does anyone think ESG might be a bit cheap at the moment based on reserves.  Would appreciate your opinion!


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## fma007 (6 March 2008)

OK Does anyone have a view on ESG? I've been holding onto this dud for a while. 

It crashed 10% today .. but I guess most of the coal seam companies did.

Anyone know of any news coming around, what the company is up to etc? I can't find much info.


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## grace (13 March 2008)

fma007 said:


> OK Does anyone have a view on ESG? I've been holding onto this dud for a while.
> 
> It crashed 10% today .. but I guess most of the coal seam companies did.
> 
> Anyone know of any news coming around, what the company is up to etc? I can't find much info.




Perhaps the giant is awakening.  Announcement of what is in store for this year.  Lots of things happening.  Remembering also they are farming into on of Sapex's blocks.  That could be interesting too.  



> *EASTERN STAR LAUNCHES NSW’S BIGGEST EVER
> CSG RESERVES APPRAISAL PROGRAM​*Eastern Star Gas Limited (ASX: ESG) together with its joint venture partner, Gastar Exploration Ltd (AMEX: GST & TSX: YGA.TO), has commenced its 2008coal seam gas (CSG) reserves appraisal programme within Petroleum exloration Licence PEL 238 in Northern NSW.
> 
> Mr. David Casey, Managing Director of ESG, said “The fully-funded PEL 238 programme is the largest CSG focused reserves appraisal programme ever conducted within NSW. The programme has been specifically designed to accelerate major gas reserves upgrades to meet our 2P reserves target for 2009 of 600PJs and potential sales commitments of over 1000PJs ununder Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) with Macquarie Generation and Babcock & Brown”.
> ...




Drilling coming up.



> As part of the 2008 programme up to 20 coreholes will be drilled, commencing with Dewhurst 2 which was spudded on 12 March and is located to the east of the Bibblewindi pilot.
> 
> Mr Casey advised that “the corehole programme is designed to both expand upon current reserves in the Bibblewindi and Bohena areas as well as to evaluate the CSG potential across additional portions of PEL238, which has to date only been lightly explored.”
> 
> ...


----------



## rogue_investor (6 April 2008)

Interview with Michael Fraser CEO of AGL on Inside Business this morning.. Does anyone else see this as a great potential opportunity for ESG?

AGL is in the process of selling about $2 billion worth of assets from its portfolio to provide "balance sheet flexibility" and allow the company to participate in new opportunities that were emerging in the Australian energy market.

Mr Fraser said one of those potential opportunities the company was investigating was the acquisition of energy assets in NSW that the state government wants to privatise.

Yahoo article: http://au.biz.yahoo.com/080228/30/1mmm9.html

Interview Transcript: http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2007/s2209112.htm


----------



## grace (21 April 2008)

First drill results out this year and they are excellent!  This drill was to test the continuation of thick Bohena coal along from Bibblewindi.  They found the thickest intersection so far of Bohena!



> As at this report date, Dewhurst 2 had reached total depth of 975m after intersecting approximately 17.5m of coal within the Black Jack Formation, including 9.1m of coal in the Hoskissons seam and 21.6m of coal within the Maules Creek Formation, including 18.2m of coal in the Bohena seam.
> 
> *The single 14.7m coal ply within the Bohena seam is the thickest single ply intersection in the PEL238 area.*After wireline logging, a number of Drill Stem Tests will be conducted to evaluate the permeability of the Hoskissons and Bohena coal seams. After testing all significant seams the well will be plugged and abandoned.




Should be an interesting year for esg with non stop drilling to take place!


----------



## grace (20 May 2008)

Some results in from Dewhurst 2 & 3, intersection 4 nice thick coal seams on the way down, with good permeability.  The fact that they have 4 is excellent news.

Here is the link to the announcement today.

http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080520/pdf/00843565.pdf

Note that these 2 wells are the first 2 of a 20 well drill this year.


----------



## kingbrown (27 May 2008)

*Re: ESG - Eastern Star Gas vs QGC*

RE QGC new proposed power plant and pipeline ???

Does anyone have any thoughts on the following regarding ESG 
Re : Queensland gas proposal to bring a new pipeline that appears to be through 
some of esg's csm acreage ?

by the look of the share volume and price hike today after QGC announcement
ESG was a big winner today !

Also would ESG be a big winner if the NSW govt approved QGC new gas fired power station ?

by the look of their last presentation it appears esg value themselves for 
$2.80 ?
iam i reading the graph right ? 
see below 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...rchByCode&releasedDuringCode=W&issuerCode=ESG

Anyway if you have any thoughts good or bad on this stock 
please post it 
From what my broker said ESG still appears to be a good buy ??

Would they have potential to be a take over target at some stage ?


----------



## Jimminy (27 May 2008)

certainly a takeover target now that QGC is wading into the NSW market.

Let's not forget QGC had a tilt at Sydney Gas not that long ago.

This pipeline will run by ESG tenements that ESG can tap into, or they can simply go and knock on the door of Hillgrove for a friendly chat!!

That will occur sooner or later imo.  ESG - great company, but one that will be consumed undoubtedly.

cheers.


----------



## kingbrown (28 May 2008)

*Re: ESG - Eastern Star Gas Take over target ??*



Jimminy said:


> certainly a takeover target now that QGC is wading into the NSW market.
> 
> Let's not forget QGC had a tilt at Sydney Gas not that long ago.
> 
> ...




Thanks Jimminy 
May look at picking up a few more ESG this week once things settle down a bit 

Your right about QGC having a go at sydney gas a few years ago 
Now it all makes sense 
I would say we imo already have few big fish starting to buy up these smaller CSM stocks
CSM's with acreage on the pipeline and close to the NSW market would have to have great money making potential ?
Hopefully the NSW govt come to the QGC party ?

ESG is almost back to last years highs will hold for some time yet 

Any other comments most welcome 
Would like to hear a few negs on this stock if possible ?


----------



## kingbrown (28 May 2008)

Finally the papers are taking notice 
Eastern Star is now begining to get some media coverage 
Albeit in the shadow of QGC and SHG 

http://business.smh.com.au/hunter-pipe-dream-opens-market-20080527-2iqv.html


----------



## grace (28 May 2008)

Thanks kingbrown for the news clipping.  I find the following paragraph interesting.



> QGC said it has sufficient gas reserves in hand to supply its planned power station in NSW, although it may prove cheaper to take advantage of potential supplies through the Gloucester and Gunnedah basins as reserves in these areas are firmed up.




Should be interesting to watch ESG's share register this year!


----------



## TheAbyss (28 May 2008)

If they convert their 1,300 PJ of 3p to 2p in the Hunter region then they will really have something to contribute to the new power station. They are priced on the current 185 PJ of 2p at the moment plus a bit of sentiment so they have a way to go as yet.

Watch out for AJ Lucas also. They have 176 PJ of 2p in the Gloucester Basin plus a lot of untapped and own a 15% stake in Sydney Gas plus tenements in the Surat


----------



## kingbrown (29 May 2008)

ESG popped back upto 75 cents today 
All the gas stocks had a ripper day Re SANTOS deal 
And look at pes thats rocketed 


Anyone care to suggest what is the real potenial value of ESG 
Or are they just going to stay a minnow destined to be swallowed up ?


----------



## kingbrown (2 June 2008)

ESG jumped up to .83 today before closing around .80 

Have to be happy with that 

C'mon $1 !!


----------



## kingbrown (3 June 2008)

Re *OFFSHORE oil and gas players used to call it "girlie gas".*
However, despite the much smaller pipes involved in extracting coal seam gas, it has finally come of age. 

There are now a pack of big international players jostling to be the first to get an LNG plant built at Gladstone in Queensland



http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23799216-5000117,00.html


----------



## kingbrown (4 June 2008)

Re coal seam gas mergers 
Lng prices set to soar ?
Coal gas players are now racing to prove up sufficient reserves.

According to Newport-based Roger Corrie of ABN Amro Morgans, it makes sense for the groups to consolidate


http://www.manlydaily.com.au/article/2008/06/04/10427_news_feature.html

Also talk of the Jap Govt owned Gas and Metals National Corporation 
are looking into the potential of coal bed methane as a source of supply for LNG in Australia". 
Japan is the worlds largest LNG importer accounts for around 39%


----------



## TheAbyss (4 June 2008)

I have pasted below the detail within the ABN Amro report regarding their thoughts on the Gladstone plant/s. Off take agreements are key so the AOE and QGC deals were key. Interesting times indeed.

*Gladstone LNG*
Development of an LNG market for gas in eastern Australia will have the effect of bringing gas prices into line with international energy prices. The current eastern Australian prices around A$3.00/GJ are expected to rise to A$6.00 to A$9.00/GJ with oil trading at US$60 to US$90/bbl.

There are currently four proposals for development of LNG plants at Gladstone. We believe that the critical issue for the developer . apart from establishing adequate gas reserves - is obtaining an off-take agreement, and that the balance sheets of the parties are one of the critical elements in a Supply & Purchase Agreement. 

With a long term contract the purchaser will require a balance sheet that can deliver value when litigation follows failure to deliver, while the operator will require a balance sheet to sue if the purchaser fails to meet contract obligations.

*The blueprint for Gladstone*

Four LNG plants are proposed for Gladstone. However recent experience indicates that expansion by construction of a second train, rather than a stand-alone facility will deliver a substantial saving, as much as 40% of the capital cost of the first train.

There are well established structures to enable the development and operation of LNG plants to meet the objectives of a number of gas suppliers and offtakers. In Egypt the first LNG train at Idku, near Alexandria, with a capacity of 3.6 million tonnes per year was completed in early 2005 at a cost of US$949m, including storage, load-out facility, jetty and infrastructure. There are five participants in the Train 1 consortium, including Gaz de France, a 5% equity holder and the holder of the offtake agreement. BG Group and Petronas each hold a 35.5% interest in Idku Train 1. The second train at Idku of 3.6 million tonnes per year was completed late in 2005 for US$880m, including a payment of US$320m to the owners of Train 1 to share the common facilities. Gaz de France is not an equity holder in Train 2, and the
other 4 equity holdings of the other 4 participants in Train 1 are increased on a prorata basis, with Petronas and BG Group each having a 38% interest.


----------



## grace (4 June 2008)

Very exciting news out this afternoon with target reserves this year of 

*3675 PJ*

At a low valuation of $1million per pj, gives a market cap of $3.7billion.

Current market cap of $600million odd.  Plenty of upside.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080604/pdf/00848227.pdf


----------



## Jimminy (4 June 2008)

grace said:


> Current market cap of $600million odd.  Plenty of upside.




A great announcement - they must be getting some good flow rates and dewatering to be raising those figures that much.

All the right ingredients this co. - rerating will continue to occur over the next 12 months. Slowly but surely.


----------



## sillybilly (4 June 2008)

Good luck to all the holders of ESG............

The presentation talks about an in place estimate reserve of 3675PJ. Lots of work and time required to convert part of this into a bookable number. Page 15 of the presentation offers more insight regarding timing.

Bill

(I do not hold)


----------



## kingbrown (4 June 2008)

Very good news indeed  

i also note SANTOS has upgraded their resource estimates for the Gunnedah basin could be a prolific area stated in SANTOS report 

Gunnedah basin quoted as the biggest gas resource estimates in Australia to rival the Gorgon gas project in WA ??
40 trillion cubic feet ??

I have not checked this though if someone could check SANTOS out ?
it would be great 

i'll post the media link in the morning 

otherwise it sounds like ESG tennanments in the Gunnedah may be quite prolific

And it will be a interesting day tomorrow 
ciao K B


----------



## Jimminy (4 June 2008)

kingbrown said:


> Very good news indeed
> 
> ii'll post the media link in the morning
> 
> otherwise it sounds like ESG tennanments in the Gunnedah may be quite prolific




my pleasure....

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23806511-5005200,00.html

Sure does look like a potent mix, QGC line coming from Qld, Santos next door, reserves taregt doubled.....whoa!


----------



## kingbrown (5 June 2008)

Thanks Jim 

If the Gunnedah basin turns out to have the motherload as SANTOS suggests it may ? 

Now theres talk of a new LNG port in NSW ? 
It may have come from that SANTOS report ?
If someone could check it would be great 

If this is the case ?
We imo wont have to worry about an over supply =  export $$$

Will this find effect QGC plans to pipe gas into Sydney ?

Also talk today of the Rudd Govt announcing tax breaks 
Re wanting a BIG ramp up of Gas production for Australia and new LNG plants for export $

I just hope ESG doesnt get swallowed before we see its potential ?
As we all know SANTOS has plenty of cash 

See how we go today as oil dropped last night !


----------



## Jimminy (5 June 2008)

kingbrown said:


> Thanks Jim
> 
> Now theres talk of a new LNG port in NSW ?
> It may have come from that SANTOS report ?
> If someone could check it would be great




LNG port for nsw???? Where did you hear or read that?

If it says Newcastle, then I'll be doing this.....:alcohol::jump:

That would be huge for ESG but haven't they signed up their gas for the two MOUs already in place....


----------



## kingbrown (5 June 2008)

its in the Australian paper 

Lng or being piped at least its spawned an idea ?
Not time to pop the corks yet 

Re SANTOS chief 

Speaking at a four-hour investor briefing, Santos acting chief executive David Knox said it was too early to say whether an LNG plant in a port such as Newcastle was being considered, or whether it would be better to pipe the gas to Gladstone or supply the NSW domestic market.


----------



## Jimminy (5 June 2008)

the rerating has continued for this stock on a day when energy stocks were slapped about.

It did close to 10m shares traded today and you have to begin to wonder at what point this takes a breather.:bloated: The more this continues the more likely the speculation of a predator taking a position on the register.

Ingalls safe, Truenergy safe, Hillgrove safe, Management safe.

So really any threat of of a predator will have to come from on-market buying it would appear, which might explain the upward march. 

Or I could just be simply wishful thinking and it is people buying on the announcement out yesterday with their 2p target for end 09.

What are other thoughts??


----------



## kingbrown (5 June 2008)

Your right Jim on a bad day for energy stocks
Esg ran hard to 90 on the open with large turnover

Then pulled back
I had a cunning plan to grab some near the close 
But i wasnt the only one and the buyers returned in full force  

So we do know large punters are watching this stock 
she closed up around 5% @ 86.5 
Some buyers were grabbing multiple 100,000's units in the morning trade 

Would be intresting to check out the share register 

I think we would have seen Esg hit mid 90's even the magic $1 if it wasnt a bad day 
still happy though 
Go the Star !!


----------



## grace (5 June 2008)

kingbrown said:


> I think we would have seen Esg hit mid 90's even the magic $1 if it wasnt a bad day
> still happy though
> Go the Star !!




I hope she keeps going.  I tripled my holding yesterday after the new resource targets were announced.  Market didn't seem to respond straight away, so I thought it was a buying opportunity.

A few more days of high volume should clean out some more sellers.

Here is a write up in The Australian a few days ago.  



> FORMER deputy prime minister John Anderson has big plans for coal seam gas minnow Eastern Star Gas.
> 
> The company will become "a very, very big player on the east coast, and in particular the biggest in NSW, because of where we are", says Mr Anderson, who is chairman of Eastern Star Gas.
> 
> ...


----------



## kingbrown (6 June 2008)

Re ABC Late line last night 


ESG featured quite well with SANTOS !!
A BIG FUTURE AHEAD !


re Coal seam gas 


http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/


----------



## grace (6 June 2008)

kingbrown said:


> Re ABC Late line last night
> 
> 
> ESG featured quite well with SANTOS !!
> ...




Good find, sneaky snake. :bowdown:

Chart looks very strong for this one.  People starting to wake up to the potential.  Recent media coverage also very helpful.


----------



## kingbrown (10 June 2008)

Good news for ESG 
re NSW Gas industry RE SMH article  

Long the Cinderella of the energy sector, coal-seam gas has suddenly emerged as the hot industry every big global player wants to be in - and *NSW is the next frontier of the great gas rush*. Jamie Freed reports





http://business.smh.com.au/gas-bonanza-20080606-2mzw.html?page=1


----------



## kingbrown (10 June 2008)

Note Take over bid 
Queensland gas 
move to buy out Roma Petroleum Today 
Things have only just started in the Coal seam gas sector imo 
Check it out 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...rchByCode&releasedDuringCode=W&issuerCode=QGC


----------



## Jimminy (10 June 2008)

there is also the Linc merger with Sapex.

Should be good to see what Linc propose in terms of what happens with the ESG farm-in (25% stage1, another 25% stage 2).

David King is on the board of Sapex. That is the link (NO PUN!) with ESG.

cheers.

I look on with interest.


----------



## grace (10 June 2008)

Jimminy said:


> there is also the Linc merger with Sapex.
> 
> Should be good to see what Linc propose in terms of what happens with the ESG farm-in (25% stage1, another 25% stage 2).
> 
> ...




Yes, I'm trying to get my head around the LNC/SXP merger (I hold both) in relation to ESG (I also hold).

Given that the Directors of ESG also have large holdings in SXP, I'm wondering how ESG fits in with the whole thing and their approval needed given their holdings in SXP???


----------



## Jimminy (10 June 2008)

grace said:


> Given that the Directors of ESG also have large holdings in SXP, I'm wondering how ESG fits in with the whole thing and their approval needed given their holdings in SXP???




I don't hold Sapex, but I hold the other 2.

I think Pat Elliott might hold the ace here. He holds close enough to 20% of the co. and he would have held them over 12 months now.

One can only assume the scheme of arrangement they come up with will make every one happy and is possibly why ESG finished on an all time high close today.

It's hard to see how else it will work. Whatever Linc is proposing will need to satisfy David King & Doug Battersby from the ESG angle.

Those 2 have made some serious moolah in the last month!!


----------



## kingbrown (11 June 2008)

Good work Jim 
The QGC takeover of Roma Petroleum looks set to fly through 
See some news reports below 

Herald article Re : Coal Seam Raiders 

Brad Partridge at Macquarie Private Portfolio Management, said the dollars being thrown around had sparked a "land grab" for coal seam gas reserves. 

"All of sudden these assets are being perceived to be of higher strategic value than the market was giving them credit for . . . and there's a lot of smaller companies that are kind of sitting in that sweet spot where they're not really wedded to any big player yet and may be open to consolidation," he said. 

Mr Partridge said companies such as QGC, which has a partnership with BG Group to develop an LNG plant at Gladstone, would be particularly keen to bulk up their coal seam gas reserves.


Full story http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23843837-664,00.html

http://business.theage.com.au/coal-...nite-qgcs-interest-in-roma-20080610-2okh.html

Question is !! who's next


----------



## Jimminy (11 June 2008)

kingbrown said:


> Question is !! who's next




I will declare my interest in Blue Energy.

BUL is the one sitting pretty. It will run further still imo - all ex-QGC gurus that helped Cottee become what QGC is today.

And BUL have large tracts of land in the rights places.

cheers.


----------



## kingbrown (11 June 2008)

Tanks will check it Jim 

Heres some news on the Linc Sapex takeover 

*UNDERGROUND coal gasification group Linc Energy has snapped up just over 5 per cent of gas explorer Sapex -and the companies are believed to be in merger talks.*

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23843835-664,00.html


----------



## kingbrown (13 June 2008)

So what happened today have we seen the top for these gas stocks ? 

I know it was a hard day for gas stocks 
but ESG dropping to 70 then closing about 10% down at 79 C'mon 

Any body have any ideas what caused the sell off ?
Maybe it was all those bnb punters out there ? 

I know its had a great run but imo ESG has a great future 

Still hold and will for quite some time yet


----------



## bassmanpete (13 June 2008)

I think the Arrow/Shell & Origin/BG Deal/No Deal gave the sector a lot of publicity & probably brought in a lot of new investors. After the initial enthusiasm the prices have dropped back, helped no doubt by the general fall in the market.

I wouldn't panic, kingbrown, barring some absolute disaster CSG has a long way to go yet. It's barely out of the starting blocks in Australia. The only problem I can foresee is the coal being of the wrong type & not holding enough gas but that doesn't seem to be the case at the moment. And I reckon Shell & BG have looked into this in a hell of a lot more detail than I have!

When I first heard about CSG 4 years ago I researched the US experience. What I discovered there persuaded me to invest. I recently read that CSG provided 7% of the USA's energy needs last year. That 7% represents more than Australia's total yearly requirement for natural gas. There'll be more ups & downs in the industry but there are good days ahead, just be patient


----------



## Julia (13 June 2008)

Agree, bassmanpete.  And then there's also likely to have been some profit taking after such a good run up.


----------



## Jimminy (14 June 2008)

kingbrown said:


> So what happened today have we seen the top for these gas stocks ?
> 
> I know it was a hard day for gas stocks
> but ESG dropping to 70 then closing about 10% down at 79 C'mon
> ...




Quite simple: 

1. Morgan Stanley on Thursday in the US said to short energy and buy financials.

2. Babcock & Brown (which is looking like a sinking ship) has an MOU for 40pj/pa with ESG....the market panicked yesterday. Well some panicked anyway.

3. Yes, CSG has had a good run up of late also.


----------



## pointr (14 June 2008)

To quote the most sucessful trader I know personally " for every movement there is always a retracement". I think there is a good fundamental story here. The gas supply events of the past few weeks in WA must surely have NSW government people considering the benefits of multiple projects supplying the industry and homes of this state. Not sure what the short term price movements of this stock will be. Only time will tell whether the sellers or the buyers were the smartest yesterday, or maybe they were all equally smart but each with a different time frame in mind


----------



## grace (20 June 2008)

Well, per interview the other day, Dewhurt 4 drilling news is out this week.  Not out yet, so perhaps today is the day.  Hope it's good!


----------



## grace (23 June 2008)

grace said:


> Well, per interview the other day, Dewhurt 4 drilling news is out this week.  Not out yet, so perhaps today is the day.  Hope it's good!




There you go, comes in in the monthly drilling report.  Good news though - nice thick coal seams with good permeability.  Just what the Doctor ordered!



> As at this report date, Dewhurst 4 had reached a depth of 1026.6m within the Bohena coal section.
> The well has intersected approximately *19.46m of coal within the Black Jack Formation, including 7.00m of coal in the Hoskissons seam and 28.73m of coal within the Maules Creek Formation,
> including 15.57m of coal in the Bohena seam.*
> 
> ...




This confirms the extension of the field 4km south.


----------



## grace (9 July 2008)

Project update out today.  Looking at p16....total coal thickness 41.3 to 48.2 metres.  

Permeability (important to enable extraction) average range from 45 - 50 millidarcies (with some as high as 100).  This is right on the money!  Can't see any problems there.

http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080709/pdf/00858791.pdf

I disclose holding.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (9 July 2008)

Hey Grace

ESG is an excellent story,

They look to be the next QGC,

My brokers were all over QGC when it was 25c and for the last few months they have been all over ESG

I should have just backed their judgement with these CSG things but I didn't silly me 

From looking at the presentation their main resource/project is in PEL 238 which interestingly enough is next door to Santos permits (take over value for Santos here?) and also holds the Wilga Park power station


So excellent excellent location


It really does look good, the only thing that holds me back is the fact is its mkt cap is $450m-$500m, I'm not commenting on whether its fair value but rather as most would know I play the $5m - $50m end of the mkt

Will do some more digging


----------



## grace (9 July 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Grace
> 
> ESG is an excellent story,
> 
> ...




Tripled my holdings in this recently because I not only like the look of John Anderson (Chairman), but the Company has Casey at the wheel, who knows his stuff when it comes to csg!

Remember that it is relatively easy to convert 3P to 2P.

QGC  MC = $4 billion
they have 80% of the following reserves (Petajoules)
1P   609
2P   2415
3P   7163  
$4000mill / 7163 x 0.8 = $0.45mill per PJ. 


By the time ESG really start to fire up their reserves, we shoud have a pipeline in place which will connect from Gladstone, right through to Newcastle, and run right through ESG's holdings.  That will be a major infrastructure bonus!  Possibility of LNG export via Gladstone, power to NSW, or who knows what could happen if Santos find enough, exporting from Newcastle LNG.

Back to market cap....SP 56c  MC = $430 mill
ESG  PJ's  (petajoules)
1P   21
2P   185
3P   1300

On current 3P reserves = $0.33 million per PJ.  (Recent takeovers are up to $3mill per PJ, but they have more infrastructure in place).

2008 will drill 20 wells (3 done already)
3675 PJ expected from this years drilling.
That's 2.8 times current reserves.  Share price should go 2.8 times going on $ per PJ if all drilling this year goes to plan.
Current sales in Asia $11 - $14 million per PJ from what I read. 

Gas in Place 17 TCF, which is about 17 000 PJ.  Looks like they shouldn't have any trouble with the 3675 PJ.  Above this, we are looking at big figures. 

I don't think they are overvalued at all based on my figures, and there is plenty of room for growth in the share price this year.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (9 July 2008)

Hey Grace,

Just so there's no confusion, I never meant to say ESG are overvalued or anything, its just as you know I play the more spec end of the mkt but ESG has me fascinated because I didn't listen to my boys on QGC and well look at that now and I kinda ignored them on ESG when it was 30c

Interesting, when compared to QGC ESG looks cheap on a 3P comparison but then I think QGC looks better on a 2P comparison, so maybe once ESG firm up/move their 3P to 2P a re-rating will be had?

Also  I agree David Casey does sound like a bit of an expert in this whole CSG field, here's what I got on him

David Casey graduated with Honours in Geology from the University of Sydney in 1991 and in the same year joined specialist coal seam gas company In Situ (Australia) Pty Ltd.  In 1996, he formed his own coal seam gas consultancy business, and subsequently was a founder of Multiphase Technologies Pty Ltd, a provider of coal seam testing services.  David has over 15 years experience in the management and evaluation of all aspects of coal seam gas exploration and appraisal, from initial reservoir characterisation and fairway identification through to drilling, testing and production operations. Between April 2001 and October 2005 he was a director of Molopo Australia Limited. He was previously Executive Director - Operations and is presently the Managing Director of Eastern Star Gas Limited. 

and 

Joined ESG in September 2005 with responsibility for all operations. Appointed to ESG Board in July 2006 as Executive Director (Operations) and became Managing Director in November 2007 
Previously Executive Director of ASX-listed CSG company Molopo Australia Ltd and General Manager of In-Situ (Australia), a company specialising in CSG consulting and appraisal 
Key figure in establishment of Australian CSG industry 
Active CSG industry participant with over 15 years’ technical and management experience in Australia and overseas 
Honours graduate of Sydney University 


p.s. so you like the look of the ESG Chairman huh? I'm telling your husband lol


----------



## grace (17 July 2008)

Coverage of Hillgrove Resources in Smart Investor mag this month, who own 22.5% of esg.  Hillgrove's Archer says "the shares aren't up for grabs".

Even though Hillgrove is looking for $130 mill to finance Kanmantoo copper mine, and the sale would fit the bill.

I'm glad they are not up for sale....kind of lets ESG get on with business knowing they have substancial s/holder support, and Hillgrove hold a blocking stake.  Although, they say, everything is for sale at a price.  Perhaps though, Archer thinks more gain in holding esg, than the copper mine.

BTW, Hillgrove mc = $100 MILL (less than holding of esg shares).  No value on copper these days?  I don't hold, only esg.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (18 July 2008)

Hey Grace,

Another presentation from the main man Mr Casey over in London and New York, very active man,

Also got this pic from Santo's latest CSG presentation, I'm assuming the light Blue is CSG accumulations 

Santos reckon they have 40 TCF in the Gunnedah region which is where ESG's main PEL 238 is, as I have said all along makes ESG look strategically important to STO


----------



## chops_a_must (18 July 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Santos reckon they have 40 TCF in the Gunnedah region which is where ESG's main PEL 238 is, as I have said all along makes ESG look strategically important to STO




You're a bit late to the party YT. 

It's proably about right given the stage in its development, but plenty of room to move if all goes well. As always, the problems with ESG remain its potential production costs and potential for things to go wrong. But the potential is certainly there as well.

Just hurry TFU already! :


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (18 July 2008)

Hey Chops, am definately late to this party, hence why I haven't bought any yet 

But it does present excellent value I think for Santos, I mean they just got $2Billion + cash from petronas for selling a 40% stake in some of their Qld Gladstone area projects,

Now their targeting up to 40 TCF in Gunnedah, why not take out ESG and get the 20TCF they are targetting too,

* A $1 bid would be $800m or so for STO * given the $2billion they're getting from Petronas I reckon it makes sense,


Will be interesting to see what happens


----------



## grace (18 July 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Chops, am definately late to this party, hence why I haven't bought any yet
> 
> But it does present excellent value I think for Santos, I mean they just got $2Billion + cash from petronas for selling a 40% stake in some of their Qld Gladstone area projects,
> 
> ...




I personally would hate to see esg taken out for $1, after all, the sp was nearlly $1 not so long back.

I hope to hold this for a couple of years, which should see the sp in the couple of dollars given successful wells.


----------



## Jimminy (18 July 2008)

grace said:


> I personally would hate to see esg taken out for $1, after all, the sp was nearlly $1 not so long back.
> 
> I hope to hold this for a couple of years, which should see the sp in the couple of dollars given successful wells.




Only people who will take it out are Santos imo, and they are probably inclined to wait for the PEL238 project to be de-risked over the next year or two.

They also would need to have discussions with Archer at HGO. He is just making sure they get a premium for their stake by saying it is not for sale. Good strategy, but very transparent.

But in saying this, QGC has not waited around on Roma petroleum.

IMHO, ESG won't be touched at all for some years. The coal measures around the Gunnedah area need to prove their permeability, saturation, etc.

ESG have an excellent technical team together - agreed Grace; hold for a couple of years at least.


----------



## grace (20 July 2008)

grace said:


> Project update out today.  Looking at p16....total coal thickness 41.3 to 48.2 metres.
> 
> Permeability (important to enable extraction) average range from 45 - 50 millidarcies (with some as high as 100).  This is right on the money!  Can't see any problems there.
> 
> ...




Jimminy, I think permeability is fine based on these figures, but perhaps you know more than me.  Average commercial csg wells are 40 millidarcies.

ESG have 2 x multi-lateral wells this month, so we might have some more news just around the corner.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (20 July 2008)

Hey Jimminy,

In addition to what Grace said I think the fact that Santos seems to making Gunnedah its major focus is very telling

Also while I don't think a $1 bid would be enough to win the prize of ESG at least it would get the company back towards more reasonable levels when compared with say AOE or QGC

Now don't have a heart attack Grace, or Kenna for that matter, but for the first time ever I'm considering buying a company with a mkt cap over $200m.

Time will tell if I pull the trigger and buy





YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Chops, am definately late to this party, hence why I haven't bought any yet
> 
> But it does present excellent value I think for Santos, I mean they just got $2Billion + cash from petronas for selling a 40% stake in some of their Qld Gladstone area projects,
> 
> ...


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (21 July 2008)

Posted this on the Santos thread,

CSG article about Shells entry into the area and more to come,

Relevant to ESG amongst others I'd think

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24041984-5005200,00.html

"Royal Dutch Shell's global head of power and gas, Linda Cook yesterday said the super major was still looking for new CSG openings in Australia to add to its recently added stake in Arrow Energy. 

"We've had that (CSG) on our radar for some years," Ms Cook said during a visit to Australia. "


----------



## loopy_louie (21 July 2008)

On such a positive day in the asx, can somebody explain why ESG finished 10% down???? 

Just when it looked like it was going for another run...

Comments appriciated.....!!!!

I disclose stock


----------



## redsmartie (21 July 2008)

Eastern Australia projected gas production





ESG has had a lot of exposure lately, it is one of the few coal seam gas companies with projects in NSW which apparently has a higher gas price than other states, the drop today could be a bit of profit taking, I have a few coal seam gas stocks besides ESG, most have done well, I fished this pretty picture from their web page: -

http://www.easternstar.com.au/markets.html
(quote: - Source: Wood Mackenzie's Eastern Australia Gas and Power Outlook to 2025)


----------



## Jimminy (22 July 2008)

another nice announcement today to continue to build a floor under the sp of ESG.

HoA for examining connecting into the Mooma Sydney gas pipeline.

Dominoes to continue to fall into place with stock.

Jimminy.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (22 July 2008)

Yeah ESG ticking off all the boxes,

Impressive agreement, ESG soon to be a producer by the looks of it, Casey has won my confidence as a good MD Grace, his actions speak far louder than most MD's words

Narrabri Coal Seam Gas Secures Early Access to NSW Gas Market
Eastern Star Gas Limited (ASX: ESG) together with its joint venture
partner, Gastar Exploration Ltd (AMEX: GST & TSX: YGA.TO) is pleased
to announce it has entered into a Heads of Agreement with the APA
Group (APA), owner of the Central West and Moomba Sydney Gas
Pipelines. Under the HoA, options for early delivery of coal seam gas
from the Narrabri area into the NSW gas market are to be
investigated.
Mr David Casey, Managing Director of ESG said “we are going to work
with APA to develop arrangements that it is envisaged will involve
construction of a new pipeline lateral to connect the Narrabri coal
seam gas project into APA’s existing gas transmission pipeline
system”.
“By making use of existing infrastructure, early market access can be
secured whilst complimenting later large-scale gas supply
arrangements envisaged by our existing MoU’s with Macquarie
Generation and Babcock & Brown” Mr Casey said.
“Securing early market access is of particular interest since, on
present projections, gas production rates from the multi-lateral pilot
production wells to be drilled by the joint venture later this year will,
by around mid 2009, be in excess of what can be used in the Wilga
Park Power Station, even with the proposed expansion of the power
station. Having direct access to the NSW market will allow other
opportunities to be pursued”.
Initially gas will be delivered to market via APA’s Central West
Pipeline with APA’s NSW pipeline system subsequently expanded as
gas production and markets grow. By matching gas production,
pipeline and market requirements in this manner, capital efficiency is
maximised and favourable gas transportation tariffs realised.
Mr Casey commented that “the Narrabri coal seam gas joint venture is
delighted to be working with the APA Group, which is uniquely well
placed to provide gas transportation services at an early opporunity”.


----------



## grace (22 July 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Yeah ESG ticking off all the boxes,
> 
> Impressive agreement, ESG soon to be a producer by the looks of it, Casey has won my confidence as a good MD Grace, his actions speak far louder than most MD's words




Yes, and don't discount the ex-Deputy PM involvement either (you know the one I don't mind looking at...bit old for me though.

Chops comment about being a bit slow....well, I believe the red tape to drill for csg in NSW has been slow in comparison to QLD, and I have heard the NSW Govt acknowledging that.  The NSW Govt says that it is catch up time, given QLD has the lead.......but we are the Smart State up here aren't we


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (22 July 2008)

Was speaking to a mate today who reckons that this pipeline deal was a key milestone for the company and may attract broker comments, will be interesting to see what is going to be said,

Also has the deal attracted any decent media attention yet?

I sorta guess its like an Iron ore miner signing a rail agreement and that certainly is a milestone for the Fe guys


----------



## grace (23 July 2008)

Drilling report out with Dewhurst #7 spudded and ready to go.  Thought I might just mention a big trade yesterday.  10 mill @ 0.58.  I'm interested to know who bought them.....


----------



## redsmartie (23 July 2008)

This company has seen a quick and dirty customer base, with plenty of consumers ready to suck that juice from the ground and a connection to the Moomba pipeline will do just fine Ta.


----------



## agro (31 July 2008)

so much for the ramp up from the above posts %% 

this has only been going in one direction - down, even on good days like today


----------



## kingbrown (6 August 2008)

agro said:


> so much for the ramp up from the above posts %%
> 
> this has only been going in one direction - down, even on good days like today




As most of the market has gone DOWN !
i think that comment is a bit unfair ?

I think ESG has enormous potential but in this market everything is just getting hammered 
look at our famed BHP yesterday ?

Things will only get worse on our market imo 

Just sitting on that fence like many others 
awaiting those CSG bargains to roll on in 
and ESG is looking mighty attractive imo


----------



## redsmartie (6 August 2008)

Oh wow, customers not paying the way yet, a wait and see for ESG, could be plenty of profit taking going on as well, no ramp just flat trading range.


:ald:


----------



## pointr (11 August 2008)

On a fundamental note concerning ESG future potential (not a ramp-up) APA Group-a pipeline owner today announced it had acquired the central ranges pipeline which passes through the gunnedah basin. ESG, its association with APA and the future of the basin as an energy provider gets a positive mention. These things may not make us a dollar in the current downturn but they do give perhaps give a glimpse of what may be in the future.


----------



## pointr (18 September 2008)

Today in a Newcastle paper and I'm sure others, there is an 'Exhibition of Environmental Assessment' notice relating to the proposed Qld to Hunter gas pipeline passing through the Gunnedah region. I'm sure this has been announced previously but its another positive for ESG should it proceed. So we've had the 'tech wreck' and now 'the financial engineering wreck' perhaps at some point in the future people may see value in energy companies doing real things and building resources.


----------



## Jimminy (20 September 2008)

Pointr,

the market is sceptical about the Qld hunter pipeline due to the large amount of csg needed for LNG committments in Qld.

Hence the sp has wallowed of late with ESG as we are separate to the LNG circus in Qld....

That's not to say it won't happen, but I'm in the camp you won't see it for a long time.

However, ESG is still a good investment in my opinion at these levels.

When it seems like the sky is falling in around you and ESG comes back to 30-50c range they are the times to buy. Been proven countless times over the past 2 years.


----------



## pan (6 October 2008)

Jimminy said:


> 2. Babcock & Brown (which is looking like a sinking ship) has an MOU for 40pj/pa with ESG....the market panicked yesterday. Well some panicked anyway.




Can someone explain the MOU / pj/pa? with BNB and is their falling share price effecting ESG price. Thanks


----------



## agro (12 December 2008)

A new announcement has been released for ESG
Summary: Bibblewindi Multi-lateral Well Spudded
Announcement number: 533624
Release time: 12/12/2008 10:24:00 AM
Price sensitive: Yes


Eastern Star Gas (ASX: ESG) is pleased to announce on behalf of the
Narrabri Coal Seam Gas Joint Venture (ESG 65% with Gastar
Exploration Ltd, 35%) that its new, state-of-the-art Schramm TXD
drilling rig has spudded the first well of the Bibblewindi multi-lateral
pilot. Bibblewindi 12, a vertical production intersection well, was
spudded this morning.
The multi-lateral wells have been designed to take advantage of the
unique, vertically-fractured architecture of the target Bohena coal
seam. It is predicted that the multi-lateral wells will achieve gas
production levels up to 10 times that achievable with vertical, fracture
stimulated wells similar to those used in the existing production pilots.
The objective of the 2008/09 exploration programme, and the multilateral
wells in particular, is to accelerate upgrading of gas reserves to
achieve a target level of 1,300 PJ of 2P reserves by the end of 2009.
Mr David Casey, Managing Director of ESG, said “the commencement
of drilling with the Schramm is a major step forward in the
optimisation of coal seam gas production in PEL 238 with a view to
certifying sufficient reserves to fulfill high value gas sales
opportunities”.
David Casey added that “gas from the joint venture’s new multi-lateral
wells will be delivered through the newly approved flowline to the
Wilga Park power station which is currently being expanded
progressively as gas production increases, with the first new 3 MW
generator up and running by May 2009.


----------



## Jimminy (19 December 2008)

I'm not a technical person, but this seems to have "broken out".....

Based on the figures from the the AGL /  Gloucester deal, ESG on market cap value is significantly under it's potential enterprise value.

I'd tend to agree, but I am biased on this stock...


----------



## Boggo (19 December 2008)

Jimminy said:


> I'm not a technical person, but this seems to have "broken out".....




Certainly has Jimminy, target of 55c.

Seems to be a lot of activity on gas etc stocks, SGL is another.

Boggo


----------



## Logique (22 December 2008)

AOE is in a trading halt this morning, pending an acquisition. 

However ESG and BBP are still trading, although BBP has announced potential purchasers for it's businesses.

Arrow's acquisition target is rumoured to be Pure Energy (PES) which is also in a trading halt.


----------



## agro (22 December 2008)

from: http://business.smh.com.au/business...ducers-fired-up-for-growth-20081221-72z3.html

THE NSW coal-seam gas industry - a minnow compared to its booming counterpart in Queensland - is finally entering the sights of big energy companies.

After AGL Energy last week paid the explorers AJ Lucas and Molopo Australia $370 million for acreage in the Gloucester Basin, expectations are growing that other hopefuls such as Eastern Star Gas, Metgasco and Sydney Gas could strike key deals.

AGL's purchase price of 74c to 94c a gigajoule of proved and probable reserves is at the high end of recent domestic deals, and gives the utility a quarter of the state's proven gas.

Coal-seam deposits in NSW have been explored far less than those in Queensland, which have attracted more than $15 billion from international players looking to export the gas, including Shell, ConocoPhillips, Petronas and BG Group. But AGL's purchase has moved the spotlight onto NSW.

"I think it's a natural progression on from Queensland and inevitably investors will be starting to look at NSW," said a CommSec analyst, Paul Johnson.

"Queensland moved very fast. They went from being upstarts with a lot of hope and bright futures to what we've got today, which is big companies like Origin selling half their gas for $US6.5 billion [$9.6 billion] to ConocoPhillips."

Exporting gas from NSW remains a long way off, as this requires far greater reserves and expensive liquefied natural gas facilities. The lower-quality resources of NSW coal and inadequate infrastructure have also deterred large-scale corporate interest.

But the AGL deal shows that may soon change for the small NSW gas companies, some of whom are starved of capital.

The managing director of Eastern Star Gas, David Casey, said the company had been approached by potential partners after TRUenergy purchased a 5 per cent stake last year for $15.75 million. But its main focus is upping its reserves to meet memoranda of understanding to supply Maquarie Generation and Babcock & Brown Power.

"The right offer obviously would make you think about it but that aside, we're moving forward to book our reserves and start development drilling."

Another hopeful, Metgasco, is also talking to companies with bigger balance sheets needed to back its exploration plans. Its managing director, David Johnson, said it was "a matter of time" until NSW explorers found much larger resources but the smaller companies needed hard-to-access capital to achieve this.

"If we can't tap equity capital markets then we have to tap the corporate sector," he said.

In a sign of growing market expectations, shares in Eastern Star, Metgasco and Sydney Gas rose by 9 per cent, 22 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively, after the Gloucester Basin deal.

The chief executive of the energy consultancy EnergyQuest, Graeme Bethune, said coal-seam methane could transform NSW. "It really has the potential to change the state from a position where it's not producing much gas on its own to one where it becomes a producer."


*marcus padley also had a buy recommendation on it in the herald sun*


----------



## phong_01 (25 December 2008)

After acquisition of SGL, the next obvious target in NSW would be ESG.

Current Narrabri CSG Project Gross Certified Reserves:

1P - 21PJ
2P - 336PJ
3P - 1,300PJ

ESG remain confident of achieving gross 2P reserve of 1,300PJ by the end of CY2009.  It would be a substantial increase in shareholder value.

Based on the AGL acquisition of PEL285 in the Gloucester Basin, NSW, from AJL Lucas and Molopo MPO, the price was $2.05/GJ of 2P.  This would value ESG's current booked 2P reserves at $448m or $0.58/share and 12 month targeted reserves 1,300PJ (845PJ net) at $1,730m or $2.28/share.  The $2.28/share will be the upside for ESG if the target is achieved in 2009.


----------



## chops_a_must (30 December 2008)

Really surprised this hasn't garnered more attention on here.

As you all know, I've been a big fan of these stocks for a long time. Got a lot of people in to PES and didn't buy any myself. 

Off the top of my head, I think I may have mentioned it here and in the CSM/ CBM thread, that I thought $2 undiluted would be a good target for this, on a sector comparison basis. Most likely about $1 as the inevitable cap raisings come through though.

Given the re-ratings in the sector, it could well be more. Given the other values placed on ORG's coal seam assets, and PES', I'd say 3-4 is not out of the question. 4-6 in a T/O is not out of the realms of possibility given the premiums paid for these assets.

A few things that make ESG different. A lot larger Capex given the depth of their target, but also comes with larger payoff zones. Potentially massive.

NSW also does not have the critical mass in the industry like QLD does, which makes ongoing costs, and future expenditures for any suitor potentially larger.

Having said that, given the NSW market is starved of gas, it makes it more attractive in its own way.

I think it's pretty inevitable that this gets taken over eventually, it's probably just a matter of time. On that basis, I've bought more on the pullback this morning, and will just bottom draw it, and wait for the offer. Not going to take any risks with this one, and don't want it to be another PES for me  ... even though I do have quite a few of these already.

Would not be surprised to see this pullback to about 50c in the near future.

Cheers.


----------



## Jimminy (5 January 2009)

chops_a_must said:


> As you all know, I've been a big fan of these stocks for a long time. Got a lot of people in to PES and didn't buy any myself.
> .



Chops I first put Pure Energy into my watchlist at 20c.... Don't I feel the fool also.

Mean while I have sat here with ESG when I could have had that money in PES. Bang head x1000.

I have confidence in ESG - but stocks like PES are few and far between and to know I sat down and spent a few nights one week about 2 years ago researching Pure Energy really irritates me - but we can't live in the past.

I think ESG will surpass the 845 2p target quite easily by the end of this year.


----------



## grace (5 January 2009)

Jimminy said:


> Chops I first put Pure Energy into my watchlist at 20c.... Don't I feel the fool also.
> 
> Mean while I have sat here with ESG when I could have had that money in PES. Bang head x1000.
> 
> ...




Yes PES, was the stock of the year for 2008!  I did a weeks research on PES before I bought (including at the end of the week, ringing the Company Secretary who when having a chat said "did you notice Arrow have quite a holding in our Company?").  On that comment, I invested straight away.
They knew what was happening from the start...... in fact, why on earth did Arrow float off those acreages into PES, was it for cap raising purposes, or a job for the mates?  Off topic I know, but receiving $20 mill (or whatever the float paid them) to then buy it back 2 years later for $670 million....how crazy is that!  Glad I was a bigger holder in PES than AOE for the time though. 

I own slightly less ESG, but do like it nonetheless.  It's kind of the last man standing!  Two substancial holders to wrestle with first I would think.


----------



## Dangerous (12 January 2009)

I like ESG.  The big co's seem up to the challenge of proving the unproved - making CSG economical and manageable.

Can anyone tell me if the 1,200PJ of 2P reserves that they are targeting is 100% or their share only?  (i recall they are 65% in the field).  Proving up reserves is relatively easy once you know where the gas is - I think they will get there and hopefully the share price will respond to each upgrade despite already seeing significant gains in the last few weeks.


----------



## Jimminy (13 January 2009)

PEL238 is 65% to ESG. Gastar own the other 35%.

ESG also have interests in adjoining land via farm-ins with Orion Petroleum.

The Edgeroi corehole results last year were very promising and suggest that the coals will continue onto the Orion/ESG land north of PEL238.

So even though PEL238 target is 1200 2p, the 2p reserve ultimately that ESG will be sitting on will be potentially quite large when other results start to come in.


----------



## pointr (15 January 2009)

On ABC radio this morning in the Hunter , the lead story was that a proposed gas fired base load power station by Queensland Gas in the hunter would not go ahead due to changed priorities post takeover. Which probably means they can make more money exporting the stuff as a liquid. Any thoughts out there as to the impacts either positive or negative on ESG from this news as I assume it will make a QLD to Newcastle gas pipeline less viable. Does this make local gas worth more, is AGK even smarter now post its recent purchases.


----------



## sinner (29 January 2009)

"Quartlery Report - December 2008" out today. I went long on this one an hour ago at 0.45 as part of an overall accumulation strategy on a few energy stocks I like. So many shares I want in on, not enough capital!

http://clients.weblink.com.au/clients/easternstar/article.asp?asx=ESG&view=2537725

Any comments?


----------



## Jimminy (18 February 2009)

Jimminy said:


> the 2p reserve ultimately that ESG will be sitting on will be potentially quite large when other results start to come in.




Seems as though that time is starting to approach.

Esg releasing a contingent resource announcement today with some impressive figures. Makes one wonder who the message is for - investors or prey.


----------



## pointr (21 February 2009)

The front page story on the Newcastle Herald today" GO FOR GAS" is the approval by the NSW Govt of the Queensland to Hunter gas pipeline. The article also says that Qld and Federal approvals are in place. I know this only refers to Gov't approvals not necessarily $$ to build it. The article also mentions the begining of a NSW CSG industry. It will be interesting to see if this is a + to ESG's SP. The article stated " the pipeline is expected to become operational in 2012-13". One would think that a pipeline going past your gas field would only be a good thing


----------



## Miner (23 February 2009)

Extract from Compare Shares

"Ben Polkinghorne
PATERSONS

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

Eastern Star Gas (ESG)

The coal seam gas sector experienced rapid consolidation last year. A number of transactions highlighted the increasing value of coal seam gas assets. Eastern Star Gas made significant progress in the December quarter, with a substantial upgrade in reserves and continuing success with its drilling program. "

Disclaimer : Do not hold ESG


----------



## basilio (4 March 2009)

Hmm, 14% jump in a falling market with 3 million shares changing hands.

And *NOTHING* is announced.  Any whispers around the traps ? Or is this just sucker bait ?


----------



## sinner (4 March 2009)

MPO, BOW and a few others up also by double digit percentages today basilio.

Everyone wants a piece.


----------



## Jimminy (4 March 2009)

esg is a player sitting on a very large contingent resource.

The market is starting to slowly shift attention to it as they look at other plays building resources of interest.

ESG seems to be keeping their powder dry and not giving too much away. Ammunition for the cynics but I figure they are just keeping things very close to their chest.

Santos is the rich neighbour looking across the fence.....


----------



## seasprite (4 March 2009)

ESG has been suppressed at 61c mark for the last few days . I've been watching it over the last month or so as a potential breakout .


----------



## kingcarmleo (4 March 2009)

Yeah there was a capper at 62c last week. The capper was then at 61 but seems to have left. I can't believe I did not pick more up, I will do so tomorrow. Santos presentation and Abn Amro report has helped push the Share price today one would suspect.


----------



## pointr (5 March 2009)

As I mentioned in a post on MPO yesterday, MPO have achieved and look like achieving greater than anticipated results from multi-lateral horizontal wells in QLD. This is the same approach ESG is taking with their Bibblewindi production pilot. ESG is attempting to drill these lateral wells at 90 degrees to the natural fractures present in the Bohenia coals which has the potential to deliver maximum gas for minimum development dollars. This fact alone won't move the market however I think there is a good story developing for ESG for multiple reasons many of which have been suggested in this forum,ie increased awareness of all things CSG, cashed up ex owners of PES and other co's taken over, LNG prospects, gas fired power stations ETC,ETC.


----------



## kingbrown (6 March 2009)

Good to see Eatern star has cracked the top 200 index !!!!!  

It wasnt all that long ago we all saw QGC do this 
Good to see Blu energy made to the 300 index too 

I still hold ESG and have tracked this company for nearly 2 yrs now 


Go ESG ! she cracked .72 this morning


----------



## kingcarmleo (6 March 2009)

I'm fuming i didn't buy more, ohwell im 18 and it was my first company i bought into. Hopefully there is a little retrace so i can pick some more up. There is talk of a possible cap raising soon also. Kingbrown I get the feeling this stock could out do PES.


----------



## kingbrown (9 March 2009)

kingcarmleo said:


> I'm fuming i didn't buy more, ohwell im 18 and it was my first company i bought into. Hopefully there is a little retrace so i can pick some more up. There is talk of a possible cap raising soon also. Kingbrown I get the feeling this stock could out do PES.




Your call but be carefull 
She has to bolt to the $1 sooner or later

Esg has just gone into trading holt

I also note its little off spin Orion has jumped 40% on the open ( small turnover )??


----------



## Mad Mel (9 March 2009)

kingbrown said:


> I also note its little off spin Orion has jumped 40% on the open ( small turnover )??




Speculation on the ESG-operated drilling program that commenced last week is my guess.   At least, that's why I bought OIP last week.   There's been very few sellers, so I think people are paying a premium to speculate.


----------



## nomore4s (9 March 2009)

kingbrown said:


> Your call but be carefull
> She has to bolt to the $1 sooner or later
> 
> Esg has just gone into trading holt
> ...




Yes be careful, it doesn't have to "bolt to $1 sooner or later"

It could just as easily end up back at 40c.


----------



## Dangerous (9 March 2009)

nomore4s said:


> It could just as easily end up back at 40c.




That's why i like HGO who own 20% and are trading over 100% below their interest in ESG alone. so if they do go to 40c you're still safe.

OIP have mkt cap equal to their cash in bank.  I can't be certain but i gather their burn rate will slow with the farm-out


----------



## Mad Mel (9 March 2009)

Dangerous said:


> OIP have mkt cap equal to their cash in bank.  I can't be certain but i gather their burn rate will slow with the farm-out




ESG is responsible for funding the current 3 hole program under their farm-in agreement (one core hole in each tenement that they've farmed into).   To my knowledge (insert obligatory DYOR statement here), OIP hasn't really indicated their exploration plans, but I'm betting that those plans depend a lot on what the ESG drilling turns up.


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## kingbrown (9 March 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Yes be careful, it doesn't have to "bolt to $1 sooner or later"
> 
> It could just as easily end up back at 40c.




Ive traded ESG for a few years now 
Tell us all something we all dont know  
imo long term everyone will do well on ESG

Has anyone had a look at csm gaser Blue energy today ?
had a good spike on ex Sunshine gas boss appt 

Any fresh comments on the sector ?


----------



## kingcarmleo (9 March 2009)

RE: HGO, don't bank on hgo going up just because they hold 23% of ESG. There is no guarantee that the money they could get from an ESG takeover will be seen by investors, it depends on what the market thinks the company will do with the additional funds etc etc. I think the days of 40c are well and truely gone, going on santos presentation the gunnedah basement may well be one of the best in the world for CSG. IMO only concern for esg is cap raising.


----------



## grace (9 March 2009)

kingcarmleo said:


> RE: HGO, don't bank on hgo going up just because they hold 23% of ESG. There is no guarantee that the money they could get from an ESG takeover will be seen by investors, it depends on what the market thinks the company will do with the additional funds etc etc. I think the days of 40c are well and truely gone, going on santos presentation the gunnedah basement may well be one of the best in the world for CSG. IMO only concern for esg is cap raising.




Yes, agree with the HGO point of view.  One never seems to get value out of the "indirect" holding.  I would prefer to just hold esg.


----------



## beerwm (9 March 2009)

just looking at both HGO/ESG graphs,

there seems to be quite a high correlation in direction,
but the chart would suggest if you're after exposure to ESG you go with ESG.

ESG rises > HGO rises

ESG falls ==  HGO falls
- I Don't know much about HGO, granted.



-NOTE; just using google/finance graphs


----------



## joeyjoejoe (9 March 2009)

Hi guys ... I am long on ESG have been for some time..

does any have a list of ASX listed companies that have CSG as their primary activity.

i have a small list but im looking for a comprehensive one........

to expand my portfolio.

currently im looking @

ESG
MEL
BUL
HGO
OIP
BOW

any others i am missing??????? I am looking for a full list.


----------



## sinner (9 March 2009)

There's also MPO.

Dunno what happened to CHX and GEL, assume they have already been gobbled up.

Can also examine "TRU Energy", "Delta Energy", "Energy Developments" and "Anglo Coal".


----------



## Mad Mel (10 March 2009)

joeyjoejoe said:


> any others i am missing??????? I am looking for a full list.




joeyjoejoe, off the top of my head you could add AOE, ICN, and WCL.  Perhaps you might or might not consider CSG to be the primary business for STO, VPE or RAW. 

Ostensibly OIP was spun off ESG to be a conventional O&G business rather than CSG.  Time will tell if that turns out to be the case or not.

I'm sure there are others that the other more experienced folks around here can list.  There's a CSG thread around here which is worth a read.


----------



## beerwm (10 March 2009)

joeyjoejoe said:


> Hi guys ... I am long on ESG have been for some time..
> 
> does any have a list of ASX listed companies that have CSG as their primary activity.
> 
> ...




heres my list

mostly csg;
BUL
BOW
ESG
MEL
WCL

-some csg;
BPT
CTP
COI
ECU
ICN
MPO
OIP
RAW
VPE

i wouldnt really classify HGO, more of an association.


----------



## Dukey (10 March 2009)

beerwm said:


> heres my list
> 
> mostly csg;
> BUL
> ...




Nice list - can only think of one more for the 'some csg' list.

- LNC - who bought SXP last year and gained heaps of territory in SA with both CSG and UCG potential.  - But it's probably a long way from development unless they farm out the csg to a specialist company.

The top list is looking pretty nice for the immediate future I think.
COI could be a dark horse - looks much better since restructure and merge.

Who to buy is the problem.

(Recession??   where?? )


----------



## sinner (10 March 2009)

Not sure if I should post this here because it is a bit too crazy and good to be true and in the wrong thread anyway (but there is no WCL thread).

Unfortunately I don't have any meaningful capital to play with right now otherwise I'd be all over this.

WCLO expires 31 March 2009.

WCLO strike price 0.5.

Current offer "at market" of WCLO @ 0.06
Current bid "at market" of WCL at 0.59

Purchase 10,000 WCLO at $600.
Exercise 10,000 WCLO at $5000 for 10,000 WCL.

Total cost = $5600.

Sell 10,000 WCL at current bid = $5900.

= 5.3% guaranteed return per $5600 original investment. 

Obviously this is a back of the napkin type calculation (there probably aren't enough options and bids at the correct prices to even it out like this), but I am just trying to highlight a nice opportunity for my friends at ASF.

The idea being you use this profit as a free or lowered risk entry into WCL.

Even if you just want a small parcel it would be better to buy WCLO on market tomorrow and exercise options immediately.


----------



## kingcarmleo (10 March 2009)

MEL is next inline for me I think. More 2p than ESG if i remember correctly, only downside is about 3mil in cash left. Also there are the American csg companies on the asx such as MAE and RFE.


----------



## Dukey (10 March 2009)

sinner said:


> Not sure if I should post this here because it is a bit too crazy and good to be true and in the wrong thread anyway (but there is no WCL thread).
> 
> Unfortunately I don't have any meaningful capital to play with right now otherwise I'd be all over this.
> 
> ...




WCL thread - not very active though.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11090&highlight=wcl


----------



## sinner (10 March 2009)

Sorry about that then Dukey, my bad. Maybe a mod could move it?

ESG in trading halt this morning. Announcement incoming.

I have been awake since 5pm. Bedtime!



> ESG - TRADING HALT
> Dear Suzanna,
> I hereby request a trading halt for Eastern Star Gas Limited from the open on Tuesday 10
> March 2009.
> ...


----------



## Dangerous (10 March 2009)

kingcarmleo said:


> RE: HGO, don't bank on hgo going up just because they hold 23% of ESG. There is no guarantee that the money they could get from an ESG takeover will be seen by investors, it depends on what the market thinks the company will do with the additional funds etc etc.





I think i will bank on a company with a mkt cap of half that of their holdings in one investment...  I think the market would respond if they put 110M in the bank.  If you don't think the market will respond, that is your opinion but given we are all trading in something that's value is derived from something never done and still years from delivery (CSG to LNG), I think it a little rich to suggest that the market would not like cash in bank.


----------



## kingcarmleo (10 March 2009)

This going to be interesting, I wonder if HGO will try and increase their stake. After this cap raising we should be set for a good time. One would think that cap raising would of occurred after the laterals but who knows.


----------



## Dukey (10 March 2009)

sinner said:


> Sorry about that then Dukey, my bad. Maybe a mod could move it?
> 
> ESG in trading halt this morning. Announcement incoming.
> 
> I have been awake since 5pm. Bedtime!




No worries - pretty quiet over on WCL thread.

I looked at them a while back, but the flow rates etc didn't impress. Their biggest asset is being 50/50% with BG!! IMO.

COI is one that I think is starting to look interesting since a recent restructure and merger. If I'm not mistaken they are also involved in Nth NSW with ESG and orion. In fact ESG/Orion farmed into the COI tenements - PEL 427/428. COI will be 20-25% carried after two holes this year.

The exact nature of this cap raising for ESG will be interesting to see.  The dual-lateral announcement could prove to be very significant  I think - it must improve efficient extraction quite alot.


----------



## joeyjoejoe (10 March 2009)

hi guys,

can any1 shed any light on the trading halt? or will we just have to hang tight until thursday morning?? did i read the last post right.. possible cap raising?? and if so.. will the market respond bull or bearish... id actually guess sideways if anything

thank you all so much for your replies in relation to the CSG list.. im sure they will prove useful in the future...... although im guilty of putting most of my eggs in the energy sector.. the least i can do is spread it around ..

BOL to all holders. 

Cheers.


----------



## JTLP (10 March 2009)

Capital raising will all depend on who to, how many and at what price...

Most likely the issue price will be under the last closing price (as nearly always) so as to entice whoever is buying 

DNH


----------



## joeyjoejoe (10 March 2009)

i see well i guess if that happends it means the SP will fall to whatever the offer is........and its a double whammy for me as i have no much capital left.... but i might be able to scrape somethin together.


----------



## JTLP (10 March 2009)

Perhaps not...see NCM 

Issue @ 27 from memory and still well above that. But I think when they actually come on to the market is when things slip down (correct me if I'm wrong)


----------



## grace (11 March 2009)

JTLP said:


> Perhaps not...see NCM
> 
> Issue @ 27 from memory and still well above that. But I think when they actually come on to the market is when things slip down (correct me if I'm wrong)





I would love a SPP - come on, be loyal to your die hard followers like me.  I wonder if we will get one?  Probably not.


----------



## grace (11 March 2009)

News from The Herald today.  Mmmm, not a happy chappy am I.  Where is our SPP Directors?  I've been institutionalised most of my life....school, Uni....



> Turn on the gas
> The NSW coal-seam gas hopeful Eastern Star Gas is the latest company to tap shareholders for cash, through a $50 million capital raising. It is understood Eastern Star is seeking to raise $50 million by offering institutional investors new shares at 55c, a 23 per cent discount to the previous closing price of 72c. Its broker, Patersons, has underwritten $30 million of the raising.
> 
> The cash will fund its campaign to prove coal-seam gas in NSW is a viable business. At the end of the December quarter Eastern Star had no debt facilities and $27 million in cash reserves. It said drilling commitments in the next quarter would cost $18.4 million.


----------



## joeyjoejoe (11 March 2009)

thats very very bad news if u ask me?? does any1 expect the SP to tank to 55c

how will this affect the SP?????

BS....why dont we get the option to buy for 55c

my entry price was 52.5 but i still cant really afford to cop the loss. ESG has been propping up some of my losing trades


PS - .........the above "BS" is not a typo

the idea has merit.. but i am dirty that the big boys get a slice @ 55c

whos to say they dont just dump it on mass into the market depth and wipe out the SP right back down to 55

?????????????


----------



## beerwm (11 March 2009)

Well, i guess the idea that if you gave it to everyone - not investors*
it would be dumped on the market.

ESG will be 50million better off after this, so its not really a negative in the long-term.


----------



## Dukey (12 March 2009)

joeyjoejoe said:


> thats very very bad news if u ask me?? does any1 expect the SP to tank to 55c
> 
> how will this affect the SP?????
> 
> ...




You may yet get a bite.  'Institutions' sometimes get first bite of the cherry - with a similar deal offered to shareholders soon after - to keep them happy i guess.

but either way - sp often retraces for a while BUT the cash is much needed for exploration/devel so ???? which is better?  sp won't be down for long IMO.


----------



## sinner (12 March 2009)

joeyjoejoe said:


> thats very very bad news if u ask me?? does any1 expect the SP to tank to 55c
> 
> how will this affect the SP?????
> 
> ...




You didn't even have to DYOR on this one, chops (wherever he is) was mentioning capital raising ages ago.

It was clearly on the table, if you didn't like the prospect you shouldn't have invested till after the capital raisings.


----------



## kingbrown (12 March 2009)

If can sell a few and buy back cheaper i will 

looking at the sells sitting in there this moring
It appears plenty have the same idea 

Some ppl are really crook about not being offered the same 
discount deal that the institutions have been given 

Maybe we will get something as thats only fair ?


----------



## kingcarmleo (12 March 2009)

King

if u notice in the announcement case says " a good opportunity for EXISTING shareholders". If TRU Energy is one of them we should be excited considering the privatization of NSW energy.


----------



## TheAbyss (12 March 2009)

joeyjoejoe said:


> thats very very bad news if u ask me?? does any1 expect the SP to tank to 55c
> 
> how will this affect the SP?????
> 
> ...




Whilst the raising isn't the news holders were hoping to hear, it is hardly a doomsday message. The company will be cashed up in order to increase 2p/3p reserves to in excess of 1300 pj. That makes them a healthy target in my view for the M&A players and is good news to me.

Regarding the placement to instos at .55, again i don't see you having a problem. Sell at .675 now and realise a profit of 34% then wait for the day traders to head off to their next play and the SP heads towards the 55 cents mark which they invariably do on cap raisings.

Then if you are a true believer by back in again. If not keep your gains and move on. No problem a sit never hurts to chrystalise a profit.

Failing that do nothing and wait for the next piece of news as the CSG plays are a wonderful thing and have been for a while now.

Find the positives Joey!


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## joeyjoejoe (12 March 2009)

Thank you TheAbyss, I found your reply the most useful. I agree with what you say. the open was rough but It got back up there to .68 I had my finger on the trigger at around .66 ( for a .68 sale ) but the 1,000,000+ on the buy side @ .65 gave me some confidence although it eventually left..... Sitting tight at this stage... probably could sell and re buy (for cheaper) as others seem to be doing but I think I will just stick with a long term view on this one and see what happened as a necessary evil.  

Sinner: I also agree with what you said... the cap raising was always a distinct possibility... but we all must admit the price rose steadily in the lead up to the announcement so the offer of 55c (23% discount) was a bit more of a kick in the guts than it had to be but I guess this secured the funds anyway...

As the old saying goes "it’s only a rort when your not in it!" hahaha

I want my slice @ .55 LOL...... 

although.....getting a slice @ .55 means very little if the SP is allready @ .55 (thats hardly a discount!)

We willl see how we go.
 BOL to all holders.... and hopefully well see the SP back in the green some time soon

One last note...

Is there any1 out there who believes confidently the price will hit .55c in the next few days/weeks?

Today gave me some confidence that the market is taking the good with the bad.


----------



## kingcarmleo (13 March 2009)

Your best chance at a figure closer to 0.55c is march 18 when the new shares are introduced. MEL is doing a 1 for 8 rights issue as their cap raising.


----------



## joeyjoejoe (14 March 2009)

kingcarmleo said:


> Your best chance at a figure closer to 0.55c is march 18 when the new shares are introduced. MEL is doing a 1 for 8 rights issue as their cap raising.




does any1 think there will be any on market dumping (s) on this day????

and if so obviously it would be in our best interests to sell monday and buy back after the 18th?

i would still invest the captial but the change that i would own more shares.


----------



## Datsun Disguise (14 March 2009)

joeyjoejoe said:


> does any1 think there will be any on market dumping (s) on this day????
> 
> and if so obviously it would be in our best interests to sell monday and buy back after the 18th?
> 
> i would still invest the captial but the change that i would own more shares.




It would surprise me if there was. I don't think these were sold to the punters. But always be ready for an opportunity!


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## joeyjoejoe (17 March 2009)

im regretting my choice not to sell at .68 when i had the chance only days ago.. i cancelled my order stupidly...to see it go to .69

i crumbled under the pressure early morning and exited at .60 only to see it go back to .64 within minutes..

i should of known.. the sell side was very weak.. all single entries all the way down to .60 it only took one buyer to clear a few lines..

but im still pretty sure we will see .55 soon...... which is my prediction that i hoped did not come true


my order is back on the buy side @ .55 for the same amount of shares.


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## pointr (18 March 2009)

On bloombergs site today ERM power is going to build a 640MW gas fired power station in Wellington NSW. They state the 'energy retailer who will supply the gas will also purchase the electricity. This may or may not benefit ESG but it is just one more fundamental for ongoing gas demand in NSW


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## pointr (21 March 2009)

From memory ESG's volume on friday was around 20million shares, from a quick look on Comsecs charts that looked like the second highest volume ever. Assuming it is some of the 'sophisticated and professional investors' who just bought at .55 that are selling I wonder who is buying???


----------



## joeyjoejoe (22 March 2009)

exactly

very heavy trading on Friday

the price is at .67 ????? cant understand it myself. it must be the big boys no other explanation. selling off some of the shares to crystalise and immediate % profit, well you cant blame them.

i dont know who is buying but their could always be some kind of manipulation of the market.

when you hold 90 million shares collectively its not hard to do.


----------



## kingcarmleo (23 March 2009)

Well whoever sold ESG should be kicking themsleves. Santos and deutsche bank buying ESG. Massive volume again it should be a good week for ESG holders.


----------



## Dukey (23 March 2009)

kingcarmleo said:


> Well whoever sold ESG should be kicking themsleves. Santos and deutsche bank buying ESG. Massive volume again it should be a good week for ESG holders.




kingcarmleo - is this just a rumour or fact?   ie - where did you get your info from??  no announcements that i can see to confirm...??


----------



## prawn_86 (23 March 2009)

kingcarmleo said:


> Well whoever sold ESG should be kicking themsleves. Santos and deutsche bank buying ESG. Massive volume again it should be a good week for ESG holders.




Future posts like this without a source will be removed. Please read the site guidelines.

Thanks

Prawn


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## pointr (23 March 2009)

ESG's announcements today include response to a an ASX query re price and volume recently. The response mentions a report in todays AFR that Santos has an interest in ESG or words to that effect. ESG denies any knowledge of STO action. This is just from ASX announcements I haven't read the AFR article.
Also from last time I looked around 1600 no significant holder announcemets to account for Fridays 20Million volume or todays 10million. It would be nice if something really good happened in our portfolio, its been so long


----------



## grace (23 March 2009)

Here is the source for you Prawn.  It is not much of a news story though, although it put a spring in the market today.



> ESG - ahead of a possible takeover of the New South Wales state-based coal seam gas producer, the Australian Financial Review reported Monday.
> 
> Citing unnamed sources, the newspaper said Santos could also be taking a blocking stake in the company.
> 
> Deutsche could be buying shares in Eastern Star Gas for an unidentified oil company, the report said, without citing sources.


----------



## kingcarmleo (23 March 2009)

Australian financial review pg 18 I believe. Does anyone know if we will actually find out who took up the placement? I just hope HGO doesn't sell cheaply if there is a take over offer.


----------



## pointr (1 April 2009)

In the bi-monthly drilling announcement yesterday ESG said that the third and final vertical production well of its first pilot should go on production today. Not sure if production means 100% water for a period before gas starts to desorb. No doubt the market will be watching for sucess from this pilot. The share price continues to progress upward steadily, however no 'significant shareholder notices have been lodged recently.


----------



## pointr (8 April 2009)

All quiet on the Eastern Front. So ESG drifts lower over a few days on decreasing volumes. I dont know if we will have to wait for a bi-monthly drilling report to find out how their pilot production is 'producing'.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (9 April 2009)

Was just reading an interesting report and thought I'd post some comments

I agree with the author of the reprt that a key milestone for ESG in terms of its asset value was when AGL purchased MPO's Gloucester Basin Assets as this was the second deal in NSW with AGL's purchase of SGL the first

It is interesting to note that AGL paid $2.10  per 2P and $1 per 3P for its Gloucester Acquistion yet it paid $4 per 2P and $3 per 3p for its SGL acquistion. I'm guessing this was because SGL's assets were much much closer to Sydney the key energy mkt though I maybe wrong


Anyhoo interesting read and my conclusion would be that AGL would be the most likely suitor for ESG, even if STO or AOE make a move I think AGL will fight to win and would probably pay as much as $3 for ESG's 2P reserves = $660m based on current 2P

_
The table above details a number of transactions, predominately focused on QLD. We have taken AGLs purchase of 100% interest in PEL 285 in the Gloucester Basin, NSW, from AJL Lucas (AJL) and Molopo Australia (MPO) as a basis for comparison. The transaction was for a total of $370m, for certified 2P reserves of 170.2bcf and 3P of 359bcf, which is translated above to a value of $2.11/GJ of 2P reserves and $1.00/GJ on a 3P basis. The sale of this Gloucester Basin asset has positive implications for ESG, highlighting the value of NSW CSG acreage. Based on the AGL transaction, this would value ESG’s current booked 2P reserves at $462m or $0.53/sh, however it values 12-month targeted 2P reserves of 845PJ (net) at $1783m or $2.03, highlighting the substantial upside to be realized by year-end. So while we do not expect the share price to fully reflect this value in the current market, it highlights the upside potential upon booking of reserves and the additional value that could be realized under a corporate transaction._


----------



## kingcarmleo (9 April 2009)

Good points raised there YT, but isn't our 2p target 1300 pj not 845pj? I think STO and AJL may well have a bidding war once ESG has proved up their reserves. Also it will be very interesting to see who gastar sells their stake in pel 238 to, gastar mentioned that there were some multinational companies interested.


----------



## kingbrown (9 April 2009)

Anything to do with Paterson Securities ?? 
saying ESG is now worth $1 strong buy 

Est $2:00 by the end of the year
Alot of ppl are watching this stock 
cashed in arrow and bought up a few more esg yesty 

could be all BS ? check it out on link below 
sounds okay though 

http://www.easternstar.com.au/pdf/broker/ESG_240309.pdf


----------



## pointr (13 April 2009)

Tommorrow if my calendar reading is correct should deliver another bi-monthly drilling report. Hopefully this will include news of the production pilot, as the work over rigs should be well and truly finished and all on pump, or flow if all has continued to go well. Continuing good fundamental news plus broker interest will hopefully see our investments continue to grow, and NSW get another energy source happening. Potential future corporate activity might be the icing on the cake


----------



## StockPiles (30 April 2009)

Oh noooooo, the heat seems to have gone out of this stock.. More sellers than buyers + I notice the Market Cap is rather high, certainly not in the same league as PES ... :S PES had a MUCH, MUCH smaller Market Cap at this price..

Is $2 and almost 2 Billion Dollars in Market Cap a Pie In The Sky within 12 months ?


----------



## kingbrown (30 April 2009)

StockPiles said:


> Oh noooooo, the heat seems to have gone out of this stock.. More sellers than buyers + I notice the Market Cap is rather high, certainly not in the same league as PES ... :S PES had a MUCH, MUCH smaller Market Cap at this price..
> 
> Is $2 and almost 2 Billion Dollars in Market Cap a Pie In The Sky within 12 months ?




whatever mate great 1st post 

credit suisse now also following our little gaser 

http://www.easternstar.com.au/pdf/broker/Eastern Star Gas 21_04_09.pdf


----------



## StockPiles (1 May 2009)

kingbrown said:


> whatever mate great 1st post
> 
> credit suisse now also following our little gaser
> 
> http://www.easternstar.com.au/pdf/broker/Eastern Star Gas 21_04_09.pdf





Great thanks for highlighting this report. I confirm my initial comment on its relatively High Market Cap:

"We note that on a comparatives basis, ESG looks expensive on current prices, however, we believe that ESG is cum a significant reserves upgrade once it is able to establish flowrates on the Narrabri pilot. "

But as it says above, given the future reserves upgrades, that will change. 

The report did have the opinion of a Corporate Transaction not happening in the near term, which is a shame considering the $2 valuation was based on a Corporate transaction relative to other such transactions which have occured in the sector. The report did talk of how good a fit Santos and ESG would be though so here is hoping 

I'm still counting my pennies from PES gosh that was a ripper ! at .80cents its market cap was under 100 Million $


----------



## pointr (11 May 2009)

So a nice little jump today on a bit more than average volume. Is this because of STO capital raising as they say 'for other growth opportunities'??? The recent pilot drilling reports said they had to stop dewatering briefly as it was effecting drilling nearby.I wonder if this is indicative of greater communication via the natural bohena seam fractures than anticipated. If this is the case would this allow for wider well spacing in future with subsequent savings on development costs. Any thoughts out there from someone who has done more than high school geology and only worked briefly in the oil industry.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (13 May 2009)

Interesting, Santos getting all cashed up and ESG breaking out to new highs today, I know its pure speculation but I wonder as it has been rumoured in the past that STO was looking at ESG, not holding any as I believe MEL to be much better exposure due to comparative EV's but very interesting to watch


----------



## Dangerous (13 May 2009)

grace said:


> Yes, agree with the HGO point of view.  One never seems to get value out of the "indirect" holding.  I would prefer to just hold esg.




Still time to change your mind Grace! 

Further to this HGO raised $4M for other projects sending a clear message that they have no intentions to unload ESG


----------



## Dukey (13 May 2009)

Alot of CSG'ers still doing very nicely recently thank you very much!
(What bloody recession?????????????)
ESG still more highly valued $/2pPetaJoule than most (more advanced?) but performing well.

MEL is charging, BOW and MPO are holding up nicely after some recent gains.

AOE, COI, ICN, WCL have all moved up and seem to be holding well.

Only BUL is lagging - probably because their tenements are more remote (maybe second rate?) and they are very slow to prove up any gas. My theory there is they are waiting on other companies to explore nearby, then BUL may ride their shirt tails based on 'near-ology'. Or maybe just waiting for t/o action?

My strategy - pick a few goodies, give them room to move, and wait!!
Next on my list could be BOW - if they hold current levels a bit longer.

Good luck all. - dukey.

(holding MEL, ESG, AOE, MPO, BUL of the csg'ers).


----------



## grace (13 May 2009)

Dukey said:


> Alot of CSG'ers still doing very nicely recently thank you very much!
> (What bloody recession?????????????)
> ESG still more highly valued $/2pPetaJoule than most (more advanced?) but performing well.
> 
> ...




Yes, esg look overvalued - but are they?  If you look at their recent drilling, I certainly can't fault them around that Narrabri area.  Perhaps they will surprise us with that reserve upgrade.  Holding and not selling until 90% have gone on takeover. (please don't take me seriously - I don't mean to start any rumours here).  Holding for the eventual takeover and buying on any weakness (please).


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## Nero64 (13 May 2009)

> MEL is charging, BOW and MPO are holding up nicely after some recent gains.
> 
> AOE, COI, ICN, WCL have all moved up and seem to be holding well.
> 
> ...




Dukey what do you think of VPE? 

Its partnership/stake with BOW looks promising. 

I think it is slightly undervalued. Could be a breakout soon from its sideways movement. I think it has better potential than BUL and WCL based on its location, tenements and cash on hand.


----------



## Dukey (14 May 2009)

Nero64 said:


> Dukey what do you think of VPE?
> 
> Its partnership/stake with BOW looks promising.
> 
> I think it is slightly undervalued. Could be a breakout soon from its sideways movement. I think it has better potential than BUL and WCL based on its location, tenements and cash on hand.




Havn't honestly had a good look at VPE. from memory they have more conventional oil/gas??  is that right? Nothing stood out when I had a quick look a year ago and have been looking elsewhere since.
 Maybe I should look again.


----------



## philly (14 May 2009)

Hi Nero64,
first of all I hold VPE. VPE has oil / gas interests in the Cooper Basin and is generating income from various oilfields there. It also has a 45% interest in the Don Juan CSG with BOW 55% and operator. It also has a 20% interests in 2 further CSG tenements in QLD. As well as listed shares there are options listed with an exercise price of 25 cents they expire in 2010. IMO there is some upside with the SP. VPE is very much ignored by the market and if people are looking at oil/gas and/or CSG then VPE should be considered but as always DYOR. I hope this is of assistance.


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## johannlo (15 May 2009)

The thing I like about VPE is their relative lack of debt. The VPE thread also has some interesting facts about the people involved (major shareholders, consultants involved in major projects etc.) which unfortunately I'm not knowledgeable enough about the industry to verify.


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## StockPiles (18 May 2009)

Lets all chat about Eastern Star Gas (ESG) on this thread again 

Holding its price well considering the recent accross the board selling pressure.


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## pointr (25 May 2009)

Fully agree about keeping on subject with ESG, but a quote from Santos CEO David Knox from June09 'Smartinvestor' magazine. "We're also very focussed on developing our Gunnedah acreage in NSW. We're planning 20 wells this year to prove up that acreage and see how much merit it has. It's very exciting; it could potentially supply the NSW power market and even if we could find a site, both the power market and LNG. But first we have to prove up reserves and that is what we're doing this year. Santos is ESG's next door neighbour in these CSG tenements.


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## StockPiles (25 May 2009)

Eastern Star Gas does not own 100% of their acreage though, I wonder if that is a deterent for any potential take over ???


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## pointr (25 May 2009)

In addition to the takeover potential, which may or may not happen I suppose there is always the other alternative, that of becoming a long term energy producer(give or take plenty of capital raisings) in Australias most populous state. I live near Newcastle, I dont know how big a site an LPG plant needs but there are some spare hectares where a certain steelworks once stood,right beside a harbour.


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## StockPiles (27 May 2009)

SANTOS released a statement saying they were keen to capitalise on the NSW Market and further stated they have enough gas to supply the market.

ESG will hopefully become a part of that plan


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## StockPiles (27 May 2009)

ESG went from 79 cents to 96 cents then BACK to 79 cents again !! More sellers than buyers, frustrating the way this stock is trading maybe it is plagued with short sellers manipulating the price


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## pointr (29 May 2009)

ESG jumped pleasingly to close at $0.85 a rise of nearly 12% on the day, I think its close was the high for the day. Volume was about twice daily average. They are due to release another bi-monthly drilling report, STO also released a drilling report today from adjoining PEL's. MPO also jumped 10% today so dont know if it is some general interest in energy / CSG or individual companies attracting buyers interest. I confess to holding ESG and MPO in amongst several others in the red


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## Mad Mel (29 May 2009)

pointr said:


> ESG jumped pleasingly to close at $0.85 a rise of nearly 12% on the day, I think its close was the high for the day. Volume was about twice daily average.




Somebody bought a block of over 2M shares at close, and if my memory serves correctly, about 4M shares in total were bought in the last hour before close.   Pure speculation on my part, but I smell something cooking with ESG.  And yes....  I do hold ESG (as of 11:00 this morning).   So I might be smelling my own wishful thinking.


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## philly (29 May 2009)

good hike in ESG SP today. Seems to be more interest CSG sector at the moment. Interesting to note that Korean Gas has purchased a 10% in BUL today. Lets hope for bigger and better news soon. I hold ESG & BUL.


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## StockPiles (2 June 2009)

philly said:


> good hike in ESG SP today. Seems to be more interest CSG sector at the moment. Interesting to note that Korean Gas has purchased a 10% in BUL today. Lets hope for bigger and better news soon. I hold ESG & BUL.




ESG don't hold 100% of their tenements though, that might put off a potential buyer .. HUGE rally going on at the moment and ESG opens lower !! Such a frustrating stock when compared to say RFE ! 

Having a relatively large Market Cap might explain the lack of enthusiasm though ...


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## BowCorp (8 June 2009)

Reading the recent ESG drilling reports, the potential results for the lateral well pilots look very promising. The advanced drilling techniques being employed by ESG to increase flow put them ahead of alot of the other junior explorers (that's a relative term - in comparison to the likes of BG, Santos and Origin). 

I'm hoping for a takeover - simply for the $$$, but it doesn't seem likely. I get the feeling that ESG might be in it for the long haul.


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## pointr (18 June 2009)

A very positive announcement today on the performance of the multi-lateral production pilot
.http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090618/pdf/31j3zfthcp2vjx.pdf
 The announcement spoke about the implications of this pilot leading to full field commercialisation and that the nature of the coals and verification of drilling technologies will allow for wider spaced wells with longer lateral sections for greater economy in development. We hold.


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## grace (18 June 2009)

pointr said:


> A very positive announcement today on the performance of the multi-lateral production pilot
> .http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090618/pdf/31j3zfthcp2vjx.pdf
> The announcement spoke about the implications of this pilot leading to full field commercialisation and that the nature of the coals and verification of drilling technologies will allow for wider spaced wells with longer lateral sections for greater economy in development. We hold.




Well esg got a rocket under it today.  Was it the multilaterals....or the new presentation for UBS.  Either one sounded pretty good.  

Market cap = $700mill with $68mill cash.

3C reserves >6000PJ.  I'm going to say that if that goes up to 2P one day, we are looking at similar reserves to QGC.  Well, the value could be around that $6 Billion mark if the 3C can be converted to 2P.  I wonder if esg will be allowed to get that far.  PES was similarly promising, and would have been a $50 stock in a few years time.   I am happy to wait for the reserve certification and I hope that ESG mgt remain strong, focused and intent on the long-term bigger picture.


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## pointr (19 June 2009)

Well Grace I hope that rocket is a multi-stage one to carry this stock much higher. The pre-fractured nature of some of the coals across their PEL's make this a very exciting project. So which is better ESG developing it to its potential, or the prospects tempting an energy major into a takeover. Both are good and only time will tell. One would think our state Gov't would do everything it could to fast-track the development of this major gas resources in our own backyard  .


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## woltage (19 June 2009)

pointr said:


> A very positive announcement today on the performance of the multi-lateral production pilot
> .http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090618/pdf/31j3zfthcp2vjx.pdf
> The announcement spoke about the implications of this pilot leading to full field commercialisation and that the nature of the coals and verification of drilling technologies will allow for wider spaced wells with longer lateral sections for greater economy in development. We hold.




Are people happy with these flow rates, 250mcf/day?

From memory, MEL claimed they needed > 300mcf/day to be commercial, i'm assuming ESG is similar. And they're laterals, I would at least expect to see rates around what PES was (alas PES is no longer) getting, again from memory, around 700mcf/day

Not down ramping, just confused. Be interesting to see what happens after de-watering


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## CapnBirdseye (19 June 2009)

woltage said:


> Are people happy with these flow rates, 250mcf/day?
> 
> From memory, MEL claimed they needed > 300mcf/day to be commercial, i'm assuming ESG is similar. And they're laterals, I would at least expect to see rates around what PES was (alas PES is no longer) getting, again from memory, around 700mcf/day
> 
> Not down ramping, just confused. Be interesting to see what happens after de-watering




I did a bit of research after the recent MEL announcment regarding the likely increases in flow with dewatering, time and stimulation, but came up with nothing definitive?

I've seen some pretty good resources from you in the past - any gems on this one?


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## woltage (20 June 2009)

CapnBirdseye said:


> I did a bit of research after the recent MEL announcment regarding the likely increases in flow with dewatering, time and stimulation, but came up with nothing definitive?
> 
> I've seen some pretty good resources from you in the past - any gems on this one?




Sorry Captain, all I know about ESG is what ESG tells us 

But, CSM through its potential as LNG does interest me.

Just read an intersting article about a proposed pipeline being built between Iran and Pakistan and possibly on to India. This is causing a bit of political friction between the US and Russia, Iran and Pakistan. Russia like it cause more gas for Pakistan means less for Europe, thus enabling them to further control prices. The US don't like it cause it creates a political bond between Iran and Pakistan, and probably cause Russia benefits.

Anyhoo, my thoughts then turned to the role Australia (a reliable and abundant source of coal (USG), CSM) could play in exporting LNG to the world! No need for 3000km long pipelines from countries run by crazy people

My thoughts then turned to how we could control said world through our resources and become the next superpower


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## grace (20 June 2009)

woltage said:


> Are people happy with these flow rates, 250mcf/day?
> 
> From memory, MEL claimed they needed > 300mcf/day to be commercial, i'm assuming ESG is similar. And they're laterals, I would at least expect to see rates around what PES was (alas PES is no longer) getting, again from memory, around 700mcf/day
> 
> Not down ramping, just confused. Be interesting to see what happens after de-watering




Yes, I'm happy with 250mcfd.  Both the Bohena and Bibblewindi pilots started at about that rate.  They increased from there with dewatering and are now reserves.  I think getting to 300mcfd should be quite easy from here (but please always dyor).

Yes, PES were outstanding flow rates from the beginning (but again, up there with the best in the world, possibly the best along with QGC who had one at 1500mcfd, although they did have some around that 300mcfd mark).  As long as flows are commercial is my biggest concern and it certainly is a fantastic start and looking the goods.


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## pointr (21 June 2009)

Again not from a geologist or a petroleum engineer. As ESG inferred in previous announcements and confirmed in their latest announcment there is direct communication  through the natural fractures within the seams of this first multi-lateral pilot. This knowledge, that has only been confirmed by drilling a pilot will form the basis of future wider spacing of drill holes and greater efficiency. The current pilot in the dewatering stage is also drawing water from a wider area than in less porous coals, this would tend to make the process slower. The upside is that as the pressure lowers across this wider area, gas desorbtion will occur from a greater surface area of coal that should lead to higher production. The 250,000 SCFD I think was just a 'nice round figure' and a reasonable time to report to the market, I don't think it refers in any way to the final well performance. ESG may have internal projections on performance but I can't recall ever seeing any released. I'm fairly positive on ESG and agree with a previous post that doing energy business in Australia even with boring old CSG in mind must make better business sense than sovereign risk in the 3rd world


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## lioness (30 June 2009)

Will this ever breakout to new highs. A very frustrating stock and has been going sideways for 6 months. Any chartist care to comment, I know the fundamentals are good.


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## kingcarmleo (2 July 2009)

WOWEEEEEEEEEEE, pop the champagne ESG holders!

"The consideration being paid to Gastar equates to $0.66 per GJ of current 3P reserves. Santos will pay a further $20 million to Gastar if ESG meets certain reserve targets by 31 December 2009.
Santos’ acquisition of a 19.99% interest in ESG represents a strategic investment that will align the interests of the respective joint venture partners. Santos will pay $176 million1 for the interest, equating to a price of $1.00 per ESG share. Santos has agreed to make an additional payment to Hillgrove in the event that any party completes the acquisition of a beneficial interest of more than 50% in ESG at a price in excess of $1.00 per share within 18 months.

The consideration being paid to Gastar equates to $0.66 per GJ of current 3P reserves. Santos will pay a further $20 million to Gastar if ESG meets certain reserve targets by 31 December 2009.
Santos’ acquisition of a 19.99% interest in ESG represents a strategic investment that will align the interests of the respective joint venture partners. Santos will pay $176 million1 for the interest, equating to a price of $1.00 per ESG share. Santos has agreed to make an additional payment to Hillgrove in the event that any party completes the acquisition of a beneficial interest of more than 50% in ESG at a price in excess of $1.00 per share within 18 months."


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## YOUNG_TRADER (2 July 2009)

Amaziong amazing news,

Values ESG at $1 minimum as it shows this is what Santos are prepared to pay to HGO, wonder how much for full control ie takeover????

CSG sector has been too quiet for too long, this is just the kick along it needed


Whose next?


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## grace (2 July 2009)

lioness said:


> Will this ever breakout to new highs. A very frustrating stock and has been going sideways for 6 months. Any chartist care to comment, I know the fundamentals are good.




Your day in the sun will be tomorrow by the sounds of it......I'm going to take a fundamental guess there.......and hope it keeps moving for the stock comp this month!


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## lioness (2 July 2009)

Wow, what a stroke of luck picking this only 2 days ago in the tipping comp, hey Grace.

I also put heaps on this at 80 cents recently. I think we will have a bidding war soon for the prize. STO will not get it that cheaply.

Question is what is this really worth?? I would think a lot more than one dollar once reserves are proven up over the next 3 months.

Who needs ozlotto when you own ESG


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## pointr (3 July 2009)

For the long term viewers more good news with STO involvement as well as further progress in its drilling campaign reported yesterday. For the short term viewers a pity this announcement will be priced by the market on a day when US + Europe + Energy have fallen heavily overnight. Eastern Australia's little blackout yesterday reinforces the need for more power development and CSG is an ideal fuel. The Gunnedah basin is in an ideal place to provide it.


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## antzlovinit (3 July 2009)

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090702/pdf/31jd8jyck0fvyj.pdf

looks like Hillgrove resources are officially selling its investment to Santos. Hmm wonder if santos will ever want to take over...


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## Dukey (3 July 2009)

Damn damn damn !! Nice news for ESG holders - not great for me (only on technicalities of timing) -  I got stopped out of ESG a few weeks back and thought I'd wait till new fin year to buy back in.....  and I was too slow!!!

now I'll have to pay whatever the going rate is on Monday!!!!

should still be plenty of life beyond that though !

,..... there's life in ye ole CSG sector yet me maties...irate:


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## grace (3 July 2009)

Dukey said:


> Damn damn damn !! Nice news for ESG holders - not great for me (only on technicalities of timing) -  I got stopped out of ESG a few weeks back and thought I'd wait till new fin year to buy back in.....  and I was too slow!!!
> 
> now I'll have to pay whatever the going rate is on Monday!!!!
> 
> ...




Yes Dukey, I bought some more today (trying to push the price up for the stock comp....if only).  I don't really think it matters when you buy into these type of company's, it seems to all come good in the end even if the market tanks a few times on the way.


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## Miner (3 July 2009)

grace said:


> Yes Dukey, I bought some more today (trying to push the price up for the stock comp....if only).  I don't really think it matters when you buy into these type of company's, it seems to all come good in the end even if the market tanks a few times on the way.




Hi Grace 

What is your secret to be in the top :


LNC 
KAR
and now ESG

Definitely you have some grey matters on the left side of the brain that are very uncommon . Well done and congratulations for your pick

I just bought today ESG and it was a hot cake few months back as well

Miner


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## grace (4 July 2009)

Miner said:


> Hi Grace
> 
> What is your secret to be in the top :
> 
> ...




Just all luck there Miner.  Grey matter not as good as a lot of investors on here who I continually learn from.
I don't think esg will make it this month........if you pick it the month that Santos really make a decent move, then you might be on the money.


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## philly (4 July 2009)

Hi Grace,
do you think that Santos will take another tilt at ESG? TAKEOVER??? 
I've read a few news articles about Santos and it seems it would ge happy to pipe gas from NSW to its proposed gas plant at Gladstone QLD. If that's the case and its economical then why wouldn't it take all the gas it can get hold of. If there is a bidding war then holders are in the box seat. Here's hopingr


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## skc (4 July 2009)

philly said:


> Hi Grace,
> do you think that Santos will take another tilt at ESG? TAKEOVER???
> I've read a few news articles about Santos and it seems it would ge happy to pipe gas from NSW to its proposed gas plant at Gladstone QLD. If that's the case and its economical then why wouldn't it take all the gas it can get hold of. If there is a bidding war then holders are in the box seat. Here's hopingr




I was actually thinking the chance of ESG being taken over has diminished as a result of the Santos deal. STO has now probably a blocking stake, making it difficult for anyone else to make a tile. But as we saw in the PES story, anything can happen.

On the other hand, STO itself slightly over-paid for ESG stake (as suggested by the ESG share price vs STO implied price) in a similar vein as paying some premium for taking out an option on ESG. Potentially this means they are in no hurry to takeover them in full.


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## beerwm (4 July 2009)

Doesn't the conditions of the deal state-

if ESG is subject to a 50%+ takeover [ within 18 months ]
the holding of HGO now owned by STO will be paid at the premium price.

I dont think STO is thinking T/O with this deal, just a stake in the permits,

35% + (0.2 * 65% ) = 48% ownership in permits.


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## Jimminy (5 July 2009)

skc said:


> STO has now probably a blocking stake, making it difficult for anyone else to make a tile. But as we saw in the PES story, anything can happen.




Yes PES is the best story to apply here.

STO does not have a blocking stake by any means. They don't have control. 

For someone to come in however would mean that third party is to make a play for ESG.

STO can then decide to fold like Arrow to did to BG or pursue ESG vigorously. 

STO are now in a win win if someone else bids for ESG. Whatever price someone ultimately pay for ESG, STO will have paid considerably less for their initial 48% layout.


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## pointr (9 July 2009)

As the 'dust' settles from STO's buying activity ESG drifts lower again after the initial enthusiasm which never got near the $1 implied by STO's buying. So unless there are other moves we holders will wait and watch the steady progress of drill bit,pipelines, reserves and markets. On my usual boring fundamental note the latest bi-monthly drilling report noted free water flows from the latest pilot 3-4 times higher than the flows reported from the previous lateral pilot programme, they did not state whether the drill string was still down for these flows as with the earlier pilot. The bottom line is STO thinks it is worth getting a piece of


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## grace (9 July 2009)

pointr said:


> As the 'dust' settles from STO's buying activity ESG drifts lower again after the initial enthusiasm which never got near the $1 implied by STO's buying. So unless there are other moves we holders will wait and watch the steady progress of drill bit,pipelines, reserves and markets. On my usual boring fundamental note the latest bi-monthly drilling report noted free water flows from the latest pilot 3-4 times higher than the flows reported from the previous lateral pilot programme, they did not state whether the drill string was still down for these flows as with the earlier pilot. The bottom line is STO thinks it is worth getting a piece of



Well, if it gets sold down when the market tanks, I'll buy some more.  Reserves upgrade this half should put a better base on the share price.  We are not allowed to put targets on the sp here, but as STO were willing to pay $1 equivalent on old reserves, new reserves should be worth more to someone you would think....


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## growing (10 July 2009)

193 buyers for 3,146,831 units  203 sellers for 6,907,230 units  - Commsec 10th July 2009.

I'm at a loss as to why so many units are for sale !! It has been this way for months and months -- more units for sale than to buy ???

If people would just hold onto their stock - the price has to rise doesnt it ?


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## Miner (12 July 2009)

growing said:


> 193 buyers for 3,146,831 units  203 sellers for 6,907,230 units  - Commsec 10th July 2009.
> 
> I'm at a loss as to why so many units are for sale !! It has been this way for months and months -- more units for sale than to buy ???
> 
> If people would just hold onto their stock - the price has to rise doesnt it ?




Monday will be very interesting on ASX with DJ finished still lower on Friday and oil price having broken the psychological barrier of $60.
ESG is going to behave differently then


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## growing (13 July 2009)

202 buyers for 2,947,772 units  217 sellers for 7,107,873 units  

But the price went up as high as 89Cents !!! Strange - you seemed to know this ? Like Oil going down and the DJ going down somehow made ESg go higher ? :S


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## kitehigh (13 July 2009)

4.3 mil shares changed hands which is almost a mil above the 3 monthly average.  Still looks like some good demand there for this company, hopefully most of the weaker hands have been taken out.  Was a positive day for esg when the rest of the market going down and the price of oil dropping below $60.


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 July 2009)

I know nothing about the funnymentals of this stock, but the chart looks as if its in a trading range between approx .75 and .96.

It may be worth selling at .95 or therabouts and buying at .75. shoulld it persist in this range.

There are many support and resistance lines at .75 and .95.in the past.

gg


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## pointr (14 July 2009)

Valid T.A. observations GG. I still remember buying and selling Mount Gibson Iron twice very sucessfully but after a little drop after the second sale it took off without me aboard. I dont know what the future price action of ESG will be, but there are several 'funny metal' things that could happen to cause the resistance line mentioned to be broken and consigned to history. If this happens its a question of are you aboard and at what price. We hold some ESG and I hope it is a success story, there are enough reasons to think it will be, but it would be nice to see it materialise.


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## pointr (15 July 2009)

As at the time of writing this buyers now outnumber sellers, although volume to sell is still higher than buying volume, the difference however is narrowing. Todays bimonthly drilling report was generally positive as work progresses toward reserve increases.


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## growing (15 July 2009)

pointr said:


> As at the time of writing this buyers now outnumber sellers, although volume to sell is still higher than buying volume, the difference however is narrowing. Todays bimonthly drilling report was generally positive as work progresses toward reserve increases.




198 buyers for 3,044,254 units 168 sellers for 4,697,583 units 

Yes you are correct. This snapshot is taken at the close of market More buyers but less units to buy  than for sale...

Close gap ! CLOSE ! -- One has to wonder who on earth would be selling their shares at this exciting time for ESG -- maybe Day Traders with a short term focus ???


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## pointr (15 July 2009)

One other thing to muse over while hopefully watching ESG's price rise. STO's agreement with HGO requires extra payments if a takeover occurrs in the next 18months for ESG. So if you were STO is there a major incentive not to act for 18months or if the price of ESG is rising and you have a clearer idea of the project do you act earlier before the price gets too high. This is assuming that STO does want the other 52% anyway. Who knows.........not me


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## JTLP (15 July 2009)

growing said:


> 198 buyers for 3,044,254 units 168 sellers for 4,697,583 units
> 
> Yes you are correct. This snapshot is taken at the close of market More buyers but less units to buy  than for sale...
> 
> Close gap ! CLOSE ! -- One has to wonder who on earth would be selling their shares at this exciting time for ESG -- maybe Day Traders with a short term focus ???




Look mate...

Not trying to be rude here but I've seen you post the buy/sell numbers a few times and I thought you should know...these numbers are somewhat irrelative in the main picture. People can buy on market...can sell on market...an insto could make or sell massive chunks...it really doesn't mean much. 

You can also have prop bids...I could put in a bid for 1 million ESG shares at 5 cents lower then the current price to prop the buy side...as soon as it looks close to hitting my bid I just yank it...same with selling...(people refer to this as capping)...just whack up 1 million on the sell side to deter potential buyers.

Also

People buy and shares all the time for a variety of reasons. The picture of a company can be painted and repainted everyday...perhaps some things have changed for the company and people have decided to sell. Don't always assume it is Day Traders and never fall in love with a stock...if you've gotta sell you've gotta sell...


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## growing (16 July 2009)

JTLP said:


> Look mate...
> 
> Not trying to be rude here but I've seen you post the buy/sell numbers a few times and I thought you should know...these numbers are somewhat irrelative in the main picture. People can buy on market...can sell on market...an insto could make or sell massive chunks...it really doesn't mean much.
> 
> ...




Hmm interesting, thanks heaps for that information - especially the "prop bid" strategy... I notice a few references on some of these threads to the buys and sells, in light of your post these might also be inconsequential.. 

Thanks again.


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## growing (17 July 2009)

ESG HITS $1.00 !!!

Woo hoo -- FINALLY 

Where is the ESG $1 party being held ? Has SANTOS increased it's stake ? It is at 19.99% At over 20% doesn't it need to declare its intentions ?


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## pointr (17 July 2009)

Hi Growing, yes another psychological barrier passed if nothing else, but as has been said  "The smart money is on the close". I think STO's change of substantial holder was already factored into its announcements of buying out HGO and Gastars holdings. There is a footnote in that announcement referring to the consideration including the conversion of these options.


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## Jimminy (17 July 2009)

Jimminy has popped one - Jimminy is very proud of ESG and has been on this little beauty patiently for the past 3 years....:alcohol:


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## growing (17 July 2009)

Yes, I AGREE !! I'm a firm believer in holding onto intrinsically (not sure if that is spelt right) valuable stocks for the medium term - say 1 - 2 years, waiting for them to pop and/or catch up to their up and coming projects / potential -- they usually get bought out and/or rise considerably enough to justify selling ... I think it is less risky than doing day trades and/or trying to predict what people will do in the shorter term


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## DVEOUS (17 July 2009)

Kudos to you guys.
I went the other way, and put some money into HGO. 
WRONG!!!

Nice gain there in the last week or so for anyone in ESG.
Boy, the market really does seem to have a lack of faith in Hillgrove Management.

If only the Rudd and Bligh Governments could pull their collective non-committal fingers out, and get behind a gas-fired power industry, then CSG would be a fantastic investment, IMO.


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## Miner (17 July 2009)

DVEOUS said:


> Kudos to you guys.
> I went the other way, and put some money into HGO.
> WRONG!!!
> 
> ...




Kudos to me folks
It is because when I sell market goes up.
This time too - I sold ESG yesterday and market gone up for ESG today


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## YOUNG_TRADER (17 July 2009)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Amaziong amazing news,
> 
> Values ESG at $1 minimum as it shows this is what Santos are prepared to pay to HGO, wonder how much for full control ie takeover????
> 
> ...





ESG having bought heaps in the mid to high 80's I sold 2/3rds -3/4ths at 99c-$1 to lock in profits, will bottom draw balance, was a no brainer really

I think ESG has really good potential and fundamentals but it was always just going to be a trade for me, hopefully ESGs re-rate will rub off on MEL but I doubt it


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## pointr (17 July 2009)

Good point Miner, if NSW,Qld and Australia could get their head around gas fired base load power, instead of coal it could only be a good thing for the likes of ESG. Gas turbines, quick to adjust to load, lower carbon and cooling water footprint. It is probably like our water boards that only think about dumping wastewater in the sea because "we have always done it this way".


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## Annwn (19 July 2009)

Broken from trading range  that began in March 09, increased Vol
3 strong up days with the close new tap of day.
see what happens Mon 

Cheers


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## kingbrown (21 July 2009)

Holding above $1 now 
Was always a no brainer for this little Gaser 

Bring on $2 i say !!!

Continue to hold long term 




*Newcastle on the map as a port for LNG exports*

NEWCASTLE Port could support a liquefied natural gas export plant to process the huge coal-seam gas resources Santos and partner Eastern Star Gas say they are sitting on in NSW's Gunnedah Basin, according to an early study.

Eastern Star managing director David Casey told The Australian a report his company commissioned into the possibility of an LNG plant at Newcastle, north of Sydney, had come back positive. 

"The report says it can be done and that it (an LNG plant) should be looked at further," Mr Casey said. 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25806542-5005200,00.html


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## pointr (21 July 2009)

There will no doubt be much posturing about LNG and other possible uses for Gunnedah basin gas. A viable export LNG industry at Gladstone should have an effect on gas prices in the eastern states anyway. It will be interesting watching where the next level of support is in ESG's price. I'm also a long term holder,just not sure for how long, depends on the graph and the fundamentals. As I have posted before I think there is a good story happening in this area. I don't know how to take STO's boss saying they dont want anymore of ESG, probably telling the truth for the moment. Long term, for the right price why wouldn't you want 100% of a good thing instead of 48% of it, perhaps he never had a monopoly set as a child


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## grace (21 July 2009)

pointr said:


> There will no doubt be much posturing about LNG and other possible uses for Gunnedah basin gas. A viable export LNG industry at Gladstone should have an effect on gas prices in the eastern states anyway. It will be interesting watching where the next level of support is in ESG's price. I'm also a long term holder,just not sure for how long, depends on the graph and the fundamentals. As I have posted before I think there is a good story happening in this area. I don't know how to take STO's boss saying they dont want anymore of ESG, probably telling the truth for the moment. Long term, for the right price why wouldn't you want 100% of a good thing instead of 48% of it, perhaps he never had a monopoly set as a child




No point in STO talking up ESG if they are going to have a go at it later on.  I am not parting with any of mine now, in fact, I am looking at buying again.  Fundamentals looking too impressive and also reserve upgrade due this half should be nice going on drilling results.


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## kingbrown (21 July 2009)

pointr said:


> There will no doubt be much posturing about LNG and other possible uses for Gunnedah basin gas. A viable export LNG industry at Gladstone should have an effect on gas prices in the eastern states anyway. It will be interesting watching where the next level of support is in ESG's price. I'm also a long term holder,just not sure for how long, depends on the graph and the fundamentals. As I have posted before I think there is a good story happening in this area. I don't know how to take STO's boss saying they dont want anymore of ESG, probably telling the truth for the moment. Long term, for the right price why wouldn't you want 100% of a good thing instead of 48% of it, perhaps he never had a monopoly set as a child




Not to be rude but where are people on this forum getting the idea that Santos has 48% OF esg ??


*I was under the impression Santos owns 19.9% all up *plus a *interest *in Gunnedah tenanments 

Please shed some light on this


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## Jimminy (22 July 2009)

19.9% of 65% = 13% of PEL238 + 35% of PEL238 (purchased off Gastar) = 48%....

So indirectly via ESG they have 48% of PEL238 is what people mean.

But not a controlling stake as most people understand.


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## kingbrown (23 July 2009)

Thanks for clearing that up Jim

ESG 107 cents this arvo 

Have to be happy with that today


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## Jimminy (23 July 2009)

Jimminy said:


> You have to be patient with stocks like ESG; but once the momentum gets behind the stock (aka AOE) it will be a rewarding experience knowing you were in early.




I posted this on page 1 of this thread on the 17/4/07.....how right I was.

Although my patience has been tested!!:bloated:

But oh so rewarding day....


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## pointr (24 July 2009)

On my last glance this morning ESG seemed to be 'running out of puff' with its SP, oh well it is Friday and lots of people are sitting on some profit. Available on ESG's website/broker reports are the latest views from Credit Suissse and Morgan Stanley. They make an interesting read and have a quite positive tone overall.


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## growing (24 July 2009)

Hmmm, I just read those reports.. That Suiss Securities place still reports ESG to be a little expensive on comparison to its peers, however resource certification/confirmation is really the next big step for ESG.

Both reports make no mention of $2.00 per share, Morgan Stanley rate a bullish outcome at $1.73 per share. I think we just have to continue to be patient


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## pointr (12 August 2009)

ESG released an open briefing yesterday on progress at its Gunnedah Basin CSG project.
http://clients.weblink.com.au/clients/easternstar/article.asp?asx=ESG&view=2559815
 This includes the rationale for the 'shield wells' on each side of a current pilot to facilitate dewatering and reveal the true productivity of the pilot. There was also mention of a soon to be applied for development plan.  I thought the announcement was fairly positive but SP wise, little movement. ESG currently appears to be building another base around $1.00


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## jancha (13 August 2009)

Re: ESG - Eastern Star Gas 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ESG released an open briefing yesterday on progress at its Gunnedah Basin CSG project.
http://clients.weblink.com.au/client...G&view=2559815
This includes the rationale for the 'shield wells' on each side of a current pilot to facilitate dewatering and reveal the true productivity of the pilot. There was also mention of a soon to be applied for development plan. I thought the announcement was fairly positive but SP wise, little movement. ESG currently appears to be building another base around $1.00


Pointer seems as if there was a delayed reaction to the ann as there certainly have plenty of movement now!


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## Miner (13 August 2009)

jancha said:


> Re: ESG - Eastern Star Gas
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ESG released an open briefing yesterday on progress at its Gunnedah Basin CSG project.
> ...



\
Mate did you read the posting by point r some 24 hrs before your post ?

Looks like copy and paste . NEver mind we all do it in some way but not immediately after the post. CHill out just having fun


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## jancha (14 August 2009)

Miner said:


> \
> Mate did you read the posting by point r some 24 hrs before your post ?
> 
> Looks like copy and paste . NEver mind we all do it in some way but not immediately after the post. CHill out just having fun




Sorry miner was just responding to Pointers comment about there being little movement with ESG announcement. Hope they continue to go north. Some large buys yesterday.


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## pointr (19 August 2009)

A bit of a 2P resource upgrade today and a bit of a jump in the share price. The ESG / STO Gunnedah Basin project continues to progress. Todays announcement also refers to the resource upgrade taking into account market planning that is underway. The steady flow of good news continues from ESG.


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## benny33 (19 August 2009)

thinkandshare.com/stochdetail.php?StockID=6222

Someone entered this for ESG. I havent seen this site before.. has anyone seen it?

If thats the case you would think that ESG is a bit expensive?


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## growing (19 August 2009)

Yeah it does have a rather large Market Cap considering the infant stage it as at.. however Santos taking 20% gives it intrinsic value ... I read a recent Eureka report (Alan Kohler's regular subscription business reporting company) where ESG was listed in the top 10 potential takeovers within the next 12 months. Probably based on Santos taking 19.9% of the company 

Although some brokers and myself have always seen this stock as a bit on the expensive side for its size/devlopment, I will personally hold onto my shares to see what happens with Santos in the big picture


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## pointr (20 August 2009)

In AGL's results announcements today they mentioned their gas reserves goal. Currently after the purchase of SGL and the Gloucester project they have around half of their stated goal. They also mentioned as a positive the proximity of these resources to their key Sydney / Newcastle markets. Would ESG's reserves have an appeal to them?, probably yes one would think, but at what price and at what stage of development. As some of AGL's business is selling energy to retail customers, security of supply and reserves bought before potential east coast LNG exports raise the value of reserves must have some appeal. My on another possibility re ESG.


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## Mad Mel (20 August 2009)

pointr said:


> In AGL's results announcements today they mentioned their gas reserves goal. Currently after the purchase of SGL and the Gloucester project they have around half of their stated goal.




Nice catch, pointr.  Looks like they want another 1000PJ of 2P.  I wonder if ESG's (probably attainable) target of 1300PJ 2P might be more than they want to pay for, considering that they are still proving up reserves of their own at this point.   I certainly wouldn't rule out a run at ESG, but they might go after a smaller interest if it meets their target when combined with their own upcoming reserve certifications.  CRM is just south of ESG, but smaller, uncertified tenements (Santos is farmed in).  AGL is farmed in with INP, and depending how the drilling results go over the next month or so, those tenements might be an appropriate target for AGL.    Of course, I hold both CRM and INP...  so take that opinion for what it's worth.


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## swm79 (26 August 2009)

or they could merge/take STO and get 20% of ESG on the way. i think something like this will have to happen in the next two three years.... or possibly ORG - they've amassed a bit of cash, wouldnt be a surprise


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## Mad Mel (26 August 2009)

swm79 said:


> or they could merge/take STO and get 20% of ESG on the way. i think something like this will have to happen in the next two three years.... or possibly ORG - they've amassed a bit of cash, wouldnt be a surprise




A merger is possible, but with STO's market cap being twice that of AGK, I tend to think a takeover is not in the cards.   Though, I'm with you 100% that some corporate consolidation is going to take place among the bigger players.


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## redsmartie (27 August 2009)

Today closed at 1.03 with the share price finally making the area above 1.00 then making a funny pattern. Esg is still a long term stock for this person, what's interesting is the chairperson on this board is an ex deputy PM. I think ESG having Santos as a 20% holder basically placed this stock code out of the little league and you would have to pay dearly if you said takeover this baby. :nono:


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## pointr (1 September 2009)

Todays bimonthly drilling report seemed to me 'steady as she goes' progress. The one little 'gem' was:
"The well also intersected a total of 37.6m of net coal within the Maules Creek
Formation, including 35.2m of coal within the Bohena seam."
The report stated that this was the thickest ever intersection of this seam in this PEL. One would think that finding 35mtrs of coal in one seam would be a positive ,and I'm sure it is however the SP was down 2cents when I last looked.


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## growing (15 September 2009)

Holding Strong at the $1 mark yet broker reports expect a target of $1.18 - $1.40 .. All Ords heads up while this stock tanks -- what gives ???


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## pointr (15 September 2009)

Well tanks might be a fairly strong word for fairly mediocre price action. My  is ESG drifting lower and doodling around until the next significant piece of news or activity in the sector. Some things of future interest, i)the reference to an independent review into LNG feasability at Newcastle,ii) reserves status and the performance of pilots post 'shield wells',iii) the next corehole following on from the one a fortnight ago showing much thicker coal development than has been previously found. So to me there is plenty happening at ESG's projects just not enough to make buyers commit. The support at $1.00 seems to be developing. I'm much happier watching it go up than down


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## growing (16 September 2009)

I saw a digram showing how NSW is importing its GAS from South Australia down this one HUGE pipe !! After reserves are sured up, SANTOS will unquestionably want 100% of that GAS to feed the growing NSW gas market 

So long term, long term - Might as well go away for a long holiday while we wait for it all to happen - lol

And yes "tanks" was too harsh a word to use


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## vicb (17 September 2009)

A couple of big orders in both the buy and sell early this morning. Maybe an interesting open, could see an increase in Volume for the day.


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## Julia (17 September 2009)

pointr said:


> Well tanks might be a fairly strong word for fairly mediocre price action. My  is ESG drifting lower and doodling around until the next significant piece of news or activity in the sector. Some things of future interest, i)the reference to an independent review into LNG feasability at Newcastle,ii) reserves status and the performance of pilots post 'shield wells',iii) the next corehole following on from the one a fortnight ago showing much thicker coal development than has been previously found. So to me there is plenty happening at ESG's projects just not enough to make buyers commit. The support at $1.00 seems to be developing. I'm much happier watching it go up than down



Just curious:  is there a level at which you will stop watching it drift downwards?
(I don't hold this.)


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## DVEOUS (17 September 2009)

I don't think it's time to hit the PANIC button yet.
It's par value is around the $1.00 mark, as that's what STO paid when they purchased HGO's interests in ESG not long ago.


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## growing (17 September 2009)

DVEOUS said:


> I don't think it's time to hit the PANIC button yet.
> It's par value is around the $1.00 mark, as that's what STO paid when they purchased HGO's interests in ESG not long ago.




I agree, too early for a panic button the patience button might be a smarter button to press


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## pointr (17 September 2009)

Hi Julia, a good question "Is there a point where I would stop watching it drift down". Probably no, I think there is a good long term story here, and based on my previous buy and sell decisions I've been an investor more times than I've been a trader


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## grace (17 September 2009)

pointr said:


> Hi Julia, a good question "Is there a point where I would stop watching it drift down". Probably no, I think there is a good long term story here, and based on my previous buy and sell decisions I've been an investor more times than I've been a trader




Just when you take your concentration off these coal seam gas stocks, they seem to take off, or get taken over.  I'm content with it forming a $1 base, with reserve upgrades coming before Christmas.  Ideally though, I would love the market to tank so I can pick up more at 20cents.  Keep dreaming...


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## grace (17 September 2009)

grace said:


> Just when you take your concentration off these coal seam gas stocks, they seem to take off, or get taken over.  I'm content with it forming a $1 base, with reserve upgrades coming before Christmas.  Ideally though, I would love the market to tank so I can pick up more at 20cents.  Keep dreaming...




Here's a chart - nice base forming at $1.00. I don't really have much else to say, other than ESG remains the takeover target of STO, and always has been.  Just my opinion of course...


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## growing (20 September 2009)

grace said:


> Here's a chart - nice base forming at $1.00. I don't really have much else to say, other than ESG remains the takeover target of STO, and always has been.  Just my opinion of course...




check out this map I was talking about from one of the latest ESG broker reports:






Santos WANTS what ESG have


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## pointr (23 September 2009)

Oh well, the $1.00 support level has been bade farewell, now down to the mid 90 cents level. Where has the smart money been? selling or buying, perhaps it depends on your time frame, or am I just comforting myself with this potential delusion.


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## jancha (23 September 2009)

pointr said:


> Oh well, the $1.00 support level has been bade farewell, now down to the mid 90 cents level. Where has the smart money been? selling or buying, perhaps it depends on your time frame, or am I just comforting myself with this potential delusion.




RBS Morgans put a recommended buy on ESG. That could explain the down turn. Hold or not to hold that is the question.


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## growing (23 September 2009)

jancha said:


> RBS Morgans put a recommended buy on ESG. That could explain the down turn. Hold or not to hold that is the question.




Isn't a recommended "buy" a good thing ??

Surely the price should rise on that news .. Maybe there is a big investor bailing out for a reason only known to them ?

Look at the buys and sells ratio: 1 Million odd units to buy against 7 million units to sell !!

Anyone picking up this stock is buying better than SANTOS -- Maybe investors are falling asleep at the wheel


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## jancha (24 September 2009)

growing said:


> Isn't a recommended "buy" a good thing ??
> 
> Surely the price should rise on that news .. Maybe there is a big investor bailing out for a reason only known to them ?
> 
> ...




Quite often when one of these brokers recommend a buy they generally go down. Hence when they recommend a buy you sell & when they recommend a sell you buy. It just goes to show they don't know what they're talking about. WPL was a sell not that long ago. Look where they are now. They get it wrong more often than not.


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## malachii (24 September 2009)

pointr said:


> Oh well, the $1.00 support level has been bade farewell, now down to the mid 90 cents level. Where has the smart money been? selling or buying, perhaps it depends on your time frame, or am I just comforting myself with this potential delusion.




Take what I say with a bit of caution as I have just lost on a short term trade with this one so it is a bit of a sore point for me (didn't obey my own rules ..... DAMN - always costs me when I do that - you'd think I'd learn after this many years!!).

I THINK you may find this is started as end of the quarter selling by some large holders.  This one has run pretty hard over the last 3 months so I THINK that "they" maybe adjusting their holdings before reporting their quarterly figures at the end of September.  I THINK this has also combined with pushing the price through the psychological $1 mark and triggering a lot of stops has continued the push down.  I THINK that it will start to push back up after the end of this week.

You may have noticed a lot of I THINKs in the above statement.  This is only my opinion/thoughts.  Please do not base any decisions on it.  DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!!!

malachii


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## growing (24 September 2009)

malachii said:


> Take what I say with a bit of caution as I have just lost on a short term trade with this one so it is a bit of a sore point for me (didn't obey my own rules ..... DAMN - always costs me when I do that - you'd think I'd learn after this many years!!).
> 
> I THINK you may find this is started as end of the quarter selling by some large holders.  This one has run pretty hard over the last 3 months so I THINK that "they" maybe adjusting their holdings before reporting their quarterly figures at the end of September.  I THINK this has also combined with pushing the price through the psychological $1 mark and triggering a lot of stops has continued the push down.  I THINK that it will start to push back up after the end of this week.
> 
> ...





Don't worry I'll take it as just a theory but it is also my opinion that you are spot on.. makes a lot of sense to me 1) it can only go down through massive selling pressure 2) for sudden downward movements like this, it is more likely a smaller bunch of investors selling a LARGE amount of shares and needing to do it in a very short time span -- end of Quarter is an excellent motivator. 

Faceless investment don't necessarily care about pushing the price down in fact they are just averaging down and most probably purchased a stack when this stock was much much lower -- hence they don't particularly care. Time Deadlines mean more.

Recovery would be in my OPINION, a certainty, given the INTRINSIC value bestowed by the SANTOS purchase so no need to panic *meh*


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## jancha (25 September 2009)

pointr said:


> Well tanks might be a fairly strong word for fairly mediocre price action. My  is ESG drifting lower and doodling around until the next significant piece of news or activity in the sector. Some things of future interest, i)the reference to an independent review into LNG feasability at Newcastle,ii) reserves status and the performance of pilots post 'shield wells',iii) the next corehole following on from the one a fortnight ago showing much thicker coal development than has been previously found. So to me there is plenty happening at ESG's projects just not enough to make buyers commit. The support at $1.00 seems to be developing. I'm much happier watching it go up than down




Pointer
           Think tank might be the appropriate word now dont you? Down to 88c from a high of around $1.15 in last month. If thats not tanking was is?


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## Dukey (25 September 2009)

jancha said:


> Pointer
> Think tank might be the appropriate word now dont you? Down to 88c from a high of around $1.15 in last month. If thats not tanking was is?




starting to look like pretty damn good value would be the words I'd use.
I had bought just over a dollar with stops just under. They were triggered but thats fine. I'll buy more when the turn up comes... as it inevitably will. If ESG reach their reserves targets they will be in the region of a 2B$ company if memory serves correctly - depending on how you value the 2P/3P reserves.


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## pointr (25 September 2009)

Hi jancha, yeh it probably fulfils many definitions of tanking currently. Technical analysis and the associated decision making are a breeze in hindsight. Ive got to finish this post now, the salt you have poured onto my wounds is causing my _portfolio atrophy_to act up


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## zumz (28 September 2009)

Possibly you are right Malachii. THh quarterly report is imminent. Maybe there is some bad news in it!!!
However, this is a quality stock and will bounce fairly quickly. Most energy stocks have dropped recently but gas stocks will continue to be in most people's portfolio.


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## growing (30 September 2009)

Start of the new Quarter tomorrow .. People seem to be buying back in - I wonder if there is a correlation ?

All my Energy stocks are heading up again but ESG is heading up solidly again $.93 - $.94 cents


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## jancha (4 October 2009)

growing said:


> Start of the new Quarter tomorrow .. People seem to be buying back in - I wonder if there is a correlation ?
> 
> All my Energy stocks are heading up again but ESG is heading up solidly again $.93 - $.94 cents




And back down to 86c. I know the market took a bit of a beating but ESG took a belting. Small buyers as opposed to some large sellers in volumes. If this share is value buying then i wish some serious buyers would come back into it. Still holding but as to why its on the slide who knows.


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## Semillon (5 October 2009)

Looks like we had confirmation of a reversal today, despite overall market volumes being well down due to the NSW bank holiday and no lead from the US.

I would expect the share price to test new highs above $1.10 within the next 2-3 weeks.


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## pointr (6 October 2009)

Currently Macquarie Ganeration is getting public comment on its proposed "Bayswater B" power station for Muswellbrook in the Hunter Valley. It's 2 choices for fuel are coal or gas, gas having half the greenhouse emissions of the coal option. An article in todays Newcastle Herald states "Gas fired generation was increasingly viable following the development approval of the Queensland to Hunter gas pipeline. Should this proceed I would see this as a positive for ESG, particularly as it has MOU's in place with Macquarie if my memory is correct.


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## growing (6 October 2009)

I wonder if the interest rate rise will have any effect ?? The market opened strongly then collapsed most of the day .. Our Dollar is stronger on the back of higher rates but why sell off ESG ?? 

Surely higher rates means a stronger economy ?


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## pointr (7 October 2009)

You would think so Growing, we invest in companies but to a degree we are also investing in other buyers opinion of these companies because that is whats making the current price. There are plenty smarter than me out there in the market, but at some point you would think a company turning a large geological entity into an energy resource in Australias most populous state would have to be onto a winner. I think the general trend is going to be upward but who knows how many fluctuations there will be along the way


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## redsmartie (9 October 2009)

ESG is below $1 :eek3:. The market has gone sentimental on ESG. A bit of tongue wagging in the consumer market area could have ESG going up again. It's many Pilots cost $$$ and this reflects in the share price is my guess, but in the end ESG has got a lot of real estate pegged out so it's a slow stock, the location of the ESG resource certification is nice.


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## jancha (23 October 2009)

redsmartie said:


> ESG is below $1 :eek3:. The market has gone sentimental on ESG. A bit of tongue wagging in the consumer market area could have ESG going up again. It's many Pilots cost $$$ and this reflects in the share price is my guess, but in the end ESG has got a lot of real estate pegged out so it's a slow stock, the location of the ESG resource certification is nice.




Share purchase plan @ .85c ps Max $15,000. In order to speed up drilling? ESG should drop from their .95c with this. Soon you'll be able to trade them  the 10% discount.


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## growing (23 October 2009)

jancha said:


> Share purchase plan @ .85c ps Max $15,000. In order to speed up drilling? ESG should drop from their .95c with this. Soon you'll be able to trade them  the 10% discount.




Well worth it when SANTOS pays $1 a share  In my opinion of course.... There was a big article on Catalyst last night about Coal Seam Gas - an interesting segment. The government have invested A LOT of money in the industry Emissions are 50% of traditional Coal Burning technology, as people have said this is an excellent long term stock - stay in it until SANTOS takes it over 100% I reckon


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## jancha (27 October 2009)

growing said:


> Well worth it when SANTOS pays $1 a share  In my opinion of course.... There was a big article on Catalyst last night about Coal Seam Gas - an interesting segment. The government have invested A LOT of money in the industry Emissions are 50% of traditional Coal Burning technology, as people have said this is an excellent long term stock - stay in it until SANTOS takes it over 100% I reckon




Well with ESG currently @ 87c the share purchase plan is hardly a bargin price @ 85c. Do you think there could concern of a market correction? If so they'll continue to fall.


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## pointr (28 October 2009)

Sorry jancha, my crystal ball is currently broken so I'm not sure what the future will be for ESG short term. I'm not taking shares up in the SPP, my spare $$''s are needed elsewhere at present. On the subject of SPP, I noticed an old check butt the other day where we bought MPO several years ago via a SPP. Looking back now the price paid is a pittance compared to their current price even allowing for consolidation they did some time ago. My long term view of ESG is positive however any delays in pilots or reserves certification, or general market downturns, if they occurr may present short term buying opportunities


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## vicb (19 November 2009)

Out of interest did anybody take up the SPP?
I sold out and waited to see what the price would end up on the closing day.
In the end I just could not bring myself into participating in it.
Will look at it again after the new shares hit the market.


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## grace (19 November 2009)

vicb said:


> Out of interest did anybody take up the SPP?
> I sold out and waited to see what the price would end up on the closing day.
> In the end I just could not bring myself into participating in it.
> Will look at it again after the new shares hit the market.




Yes, I took some up.  Reserves upgrade not very far away.  A few technical glitches holding it up at the moment, but it will be good IMHO based on pilots.


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## skc (19 November 2009)

grace said:


> Yes, I took some up.  Reserves upgrade not very far away.  A few technical glitches holding it up at the moment, but it will be good IMHO based on pilots.




Why didn't you just buy on market? I don't see a VWAP based discount to the SPP?


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## grace (19 November 2009)

skc said:


> Why didn't you just buy on market? I don't see a VWAP based discount to the SPP?




They didn't offer BPAY etc.  So it was chq and snail mail.  As I live in the bush, the day I had to post it by, the stock was trading at higher than 85cents.  I recall the SPP was at 85cents - no brokerage.  I wanted a few more anyway, and will continue to buy, if it drops......please.


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## skc (20 November 2009)

grace said:


> They didn't offer BPAY etc.  So it was chq and snail mail.  As I live in the bush, the day I had to post it by, the stock was trading at higher than 85cents.  I recall the SPP was at 85cents - no brokerage.  I wanted a few more anyway, and will continue to buy, if it drops......please.




I see. The good old days of cheque and snail mail. 

BPay for SPP / rights is the best thing... and even better when they refund you electronically as well. I hate it when my money takes a month long holiday to travel around the county.

I've never had a cheque account so I always had to go to the bank for a bank cheque. It costs around $15 and if you are unsuccessful for whatever reason (like IPOs) and get the same cheque returned, it cost me $35 for the bank to buy it back! 

Back on topic. Chart's not looking too bullish for ESG. But 70c there are plenty of support. One would think STO launching a takeover would also come into consideration at 70c. They can offer $1 which is what they paid a few months back, and it would be a good 40% premium.

I might pick up a few if it ever gets down there.


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## grace (25 November 2009)

Reading the Chairmans report today....the Bibblewindi multi-lateral pilot is flowing at 470 000 scfd from mid-Oct 09 operation.

Reserves upgrade is running very late, but it will be a good one!


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## pointr (26 November 2009)

Yes Grace and the chairman also used the word 'exponential' when speaking of increases expected in the coming months. I expect the market is waiting to see
actual 'numerals' recorded rather than words spoken.


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## jancha (1 December 2009)

ESGs Bimonthly drilling report didn't impress too many share holders. Down 5%to 78.5c. Pity those who bought an extra 15k worth of shares @ 85c but thats how it goes. I sold Mel & bought ESG @ $1. Thought Santos couldn't be wrong buying @ $1


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## jancha (1 December 2009)

pointr said:


> Sorry jancha, my crystal ball is currently broken so I'm not sure what the future will be for ESG short term. I'm not taking shares up in the SPP, my spare $$''s are needed elsewhere at present. On the subject of SPP, I noticed an old check butt the other day where we bought MPO several years ago via a SPP. Looking back now the price paid is a pittance compared to their current price even allowing for consolidation they did some time ago. My long term view of ESG is positive however any delays in pilots or reserves certification, or general market downturns, if they occurr may present short term buying opportunities




Pointer short term buying opportunies are starting to present themselves wouldn't you think?


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## pointr (1 December 2009)

Hi Jancha, I hope its a buying opportunity and not an opportunity lost, but I'm still not buying any more. ESG's momentum has been downward, not sure where the floor is. I think ESG is going have to demonstrate those 'exponentially increasing' production figures the chairman prognosticated in his AGM to stop the bleeding. A significant reserves upgrade or some corporate action in the sector might also might excite some buyers. MOS recently stated that it was going to concentrate on 'liquids' rather than gas in its planned drilling because it can see an oversupply of gas in the short term until East Coast LNG comes to fruition. regards pointr


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## growing (2 December 2009)

The whole Coal Seam Gas sector has been a bit flat as people seem to be concentrating more on Financials in line with the economic recovery theme going on..

I'm with everyone else though, ESG's sell off is very disappointing, again it comes down to patience .. we have all been bread to demand everything "NOW"


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## Lavender (2 December 2009)

So the offer for shares at 85c prompted the price to fall below 80c. Not a good win for shareholders. Ian Kirkham is sending almost daily emails to us with drilling reports but when asked will not address the question of why has the share price tanked? Is it due to the quantity of additional shares diluting the value? Or perhaps that the glitter has left the CSG industry?
Will it rebound?


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## vicb (4 December 2009)

Lavender said:


> So the offer for shares at 85c prompted the price to fall below 80c. Not a good win for shareholders. Ian Kirkham is sending almost daily emails to us with drilling reports but when asked will not address the question of why has the share price tanked? Is it due to the quantity of additional shares diluting the value? Or perhaps that the glitter has left the CSG industry?
> Will it rebound?



Thats a good point. I bought in around the 97c area and sold out at the 92c before the offer expired. I had thought about buying into the full $15000  worth but in the end  I could not see the stock holding above .85.
Instead bought into arrow energy (AOE) which has been feeling the same sort of pressure in the last few months but is recovering some lost ground. 
I will be looking at buying back into ESG at around the .75 - .80 area. Its seems to me to be good value. Feel bad for anyone who bought in the offer and if I had 'snail  mail', I also would of bought in.
I do think we will be seeing a turn around in this stock soon.


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## Dukey (6 December 2009)

Lavender said:


> So the offer for shares at 85c prompted the price to fall below 80c. Not a good win for shareholders. Ian Kirkham is sending almost daily emails to us with drilling reports but when asked will not address the question of why has the share price tanked? Is it due to the quantity of additional shares diluting the value? Or perhaps that the glitter has left the CSG industry?
> Will it rebound?




Dilution would only be small part of the story I'd think. Bad timing with the recent downturn is a fairly big factor. And  yes - everyone's attention is elsewhere recently. patience is the game with these things. I've been burnt many times by selling out just before the next leg up - like with MEL recently - Their sp did nothing much for over a year till a week or so back and then... whammo!
  ESG have flagged good reserves upgrades and that should have a positive effect when they come through.


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## Lavender (8 December 2009)

Thanks for the confidence boost Dukey.
Do you think the same applies to gold? Specifically Norseman?


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## Nero64 (8 December 2009)

With 865 Mill shares outstanding it would be interesting to know how many times it has tapped the market since its listing in 2001. Good luck to Santos for buying in at $1. If you missed buying in for under 50c when it dipped to nearly 20c then I don't see it appreciating greatly from here unless mass speculation hits the market again. Of course it might bounce here and there on good news but is it worth buying in for 10-20c gain. You have to ask yourself that. Unless you want to hold it for a long time it may double if NSW looks to CSG for its power supply needs.


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## growing (9 December 2009)

Dukey said:


> Dilution would only be small part of the story I'd think. Bad timing with the recent downturn is a fairly big factor. And  yes - everyone's attention is elsewhere recently. patience is the game with these things. I've been burnt many times by selling out just before the next leg up - like with MEL recently - Their sp did nothing much for over a year till a week or so back and then... whammo!
> ESG have flagged good reserves upgrades and that should have a positive effect when they come through.




I'm with Dukey, wise words and I have experienced much the same thing in the past and I adopt the same opinion for ESG's future.

Patience it is !


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## grace (22 December 2009)

growing said:


> I'm with Dukey, wise words and I have experienced much the same thing in the past and I adopt the same opinion for ESG's future.
> 
> Patience it is !




Growing by the day we are!!!

Bibblewinde West Pilot is flowing at 2 million scfd after only one month of dewatering.

Now in my books, that is up there with the best of the best in QLD.  Anyone care to comment???  If will be one amazing resource upgrade imho!!!


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## basilio (22 December 2009)

Fairly big jump in ESG today. Seemed like some solid early volumes. Would reserve upgrades come before Christmas ? 

I like your enthusiasm (and judgment...) Grace .... 

Can you rub some onto LNC for us please


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## Dukey (23 December 2009)

grace said:


> Growing by the day we are!!!
> 
> Bibblewinde West Pilot is flowing at 2 million scfd after only one month of dewatering.
> 
> Now in my books, that is up there with the best of the best in QLD.  Anyone care to comment???  If will be one amazing resource upgrade imho!!!




!! are you serious Grace! - thats the kind of flows I've been dreaming of!

missed that announcement... let me go find it.......

-------------------

Rather than post again - I'll edit.

Well - Grace is not making it up  (not that i expected you would Grace!)... and yesterdays sp jump is probably well justified IMO.
- here's the link...

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01024974

(tell me if it doesn't work).

These are the kind of flows that got QGC on the road to where it is today - I havn't seen 2Mill since then.... and wouldn't you know it - I was ripping a toilet cistern off the wall and installing a new one last night and had no time to check.

anyway - happy days for X-mas 2009.   
one would expect that if these results can be replicated then it should translate to very good improvements in operational efficiency (less holes required for X amount of gas), and possible better reserves.

- it's allllll good.
------------
OK - you can tell I'm a little exited by those flows - all comments are just my opinion etc.  - no advice intended etc.


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## basilio (23 December 2009)

Yes it does look good. Have to say  I have always believed ESG had huge potential (and encouraged others to buy in) but hadn't actually done so myself..

Jumped in today on the overall strength not to mention that last report. So lets hope it's another PES.. (that was the only thing that made 2008 look remotely close to even..thanks G)


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## Dukey (23 December 2009)

basilio said:


> Yes it does look good. Have to say  I have always believed ESG had huge potential (and encouraged others to buy in) but hadn't actually done so myself..
> 
> Jumped in today on the overall strength not to mention that last report. So lets hope it's another PES.. (that was the only thing that made 2008 look remotely close to even..thanks G)




Yes - PES was a nice earner - but I would rather still own the shares I think - or at least some of them. needless to say - flows like 2mmcfd are what attracted the amazing bidding war over PES - among other things - location etc.


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## jancha (24 December 2009)

Dukey said:


> Yes - PES was a nice earner - but I would rather still own the shares I think - or at least some of them. needless to say - flows like 2mmcfd are what attracted the amazing bidding war over PES - among other things - location etc.




When chosing between either MEL or ESG I chose the latter @ $1 ps.
Thought if Santos was prepared to pay that much for them it couldn't be a bad thing. 
Since then MEL had doubled in sp at one point while ESG kept heading south.

Hopefully the news continues with more upgrades & ESG can find it's way back to the $+ mark.
I think Dangerous happen to mention ( when MEL sp jumped ) that Santos only came in on ESG for it's drilling technology. 
In hindsight i should have stuck with both companies but if ESG keep coming out with annoucements like the last one it could possibly have been the right choice.


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## growing (24 December 2009)

Hehe, it all goes back to what Dukey said earlier about patience and long term 

Some would argue chopping and trading shares in the short term allows you take advantage of the peaks and troughs but then you risk missing out on the HUUUUUGE rises which can occur on the back of news similar to this.

Although this announced incredible flows, we are yet to see an official reserves upgrade. From what I can see it is just around the corner however and THEN we should keep a close eye on the share price and volumes -- It's possible more institutional investors will jump in on the back of certified reserves 

I'm not saying SANTOS can't make mistakes but given their experience in energy, it is unlikely. In fact to me, this whole thing is a transparent setup for future SANTOS takeover (Arrow/PES analogy). We can't realistically expect ESG to hit the $8-$9 mark of PES due to a huge difference in share dilution but there is certainly a buck or 2 to be made by holding ESG until SANTOS make their move  

Disclaimer: IMO !!  No advice or ramping intended...


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## pointr (29 December 2009)

I'm very happy with ESG's latest promising pilot gas production. The Gunnedah Basin has been in the middle of much of NSW's very welcome Christmas rain. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the recent rain will temporarily slow activities on the project, with the potential to push back reserves upgrades if they are relying on current drilling information. Regards to all Pointr


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## growing (4 January 2010)

There we go, easy does it baby -- nice rise today comfortably over the .85 barrier. The market can't ignore the intrinsic value in this stock I only wish I had the guts to buy in when it hit 74 cents !!!!


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## pointr (4 January 2010)

Perhaps a general increase in the CSG sector due to AOE / LNG announcement today re Gladstone project. MPO is also up and from reading another post MEL is up as well.


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## Dukey (4 January 2010)

pointr said:


> Perhaps a general increase in the CSG sector due to AOE / LNG announcement today re Gladstone project. MPO is also up and from reading another post MEL is up as well.




13 odd % up today in the end! = quite a jump for ESG.  I'm hoping AOE announcement has nothing to do with - rather that someone close to home knows something going on for ESG.  Often see these kind of jumps before an announcement in resource stocks... would be nice to see it get above 1$ and stay there, but once again - I'm happy to be patient.
-d


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## Dukey (18 January 2010)

Nice open briefing interview/announcement released today. Some very good in-depth questions - forecasting reserves upgrades later in the month or soon after...

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01029620

If they get anywhere near their 2009 target then things could get interesting!... here's hoping for all us patient types...

Very interesting about the de-watering rates V. seam thickness comments as well. Methinks 2010 could be a very good year for ESG.

-D


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## growing (18 January 2010)

Dukey said:


> Nice open briefing interview/announcement released today. Some very good in-depth questions - forecasting reserves upgrades later in the month or soon after...
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01029620
> 
> ...




Yessss, I also checked this briefing - they are talking about even LARGER reserves in the multi-lateral well which contains thicker coal. Also interesting is this reserves certification will include rates from multiple wells for the first time.

I think Santos were not so silly paying $1 for this after all 

If I only had more cash I would be picking up some more under $1


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## malachii (18 January 2010)

I agree - I read this mornings announcement and was surprised when the price went down??!!   I decided to pick up another chunk at 87cents.  I think over the next few days/weeks we will see this re-rated back up towards the $1 and if the announcement at the end of the month is as good as they are hinting I think we will see a major rerating.

malachii

PS - PLEASE NOTE - I OWN A CHUNCK OF ESG SHARES.  ANY COMMENTS I MAKE ARE EXTREMELY BIASED. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS!!!!!!


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## pointr (18 January 2010)

Yes I also had a positive view from this mornings announcement but I still think there will be plenty of ups and downs before this company and its Gunnedah basin assets reward we holders in full. There are still time / development issues,technological,geological and commercial hurdles to overcome. This is not unique to ESG, to quote an old AJL announcement something like "we have a geological entity we are converting into a commercial asset". It takes time


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## naughtynickers (20 January 2010)

I have been following the stock for a long while as I am small holder of MEL. I like the sector and Eastern Star Gas interest me. In the short term though it looks as though this on a bit of a downer, perhaps the sector got a bit too hot... Since it's breakthrough over 75 cents about a year ago it seems it looks as though it's doing okay however it seems to becoming back down to those levels. 
As long as it holds above 75 cents in this current downtrend I will be looking to get it around those levels. If it breaches 75 it's a bit of an unknown of where it can find support. 
From reading this thread there is some people who have faith so I guess I will watch closely.


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## malachii (21 January 2010)

G'day naughty,

Tend to agree - I bought a stack the other day at 87 and unloaded most at 89 as it just wasn't seeming to go anywhere.  I think it will track lower - although I dont expect it to break below 75cents.  In my opinion this will drift until the next announcment of the upgrade in gas reserves due at the end of this month or early next.  The trick is when to buy as once the announcement hits the market I think we will see a decent jump back up towards (and hopefully thorugh) the $1 mark.  

malachii

PS: I STILL OWN ESG SHARES (despite the above mentioned sale) SO MY OPIONIONS ARE VERY BIASED.  PLEASE IGNORE ANYTHING I SAY AND DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!!!


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## Dukey (22 January 2010)

malachii said:


> G'day naughty,
> 
> Tend to agree - I bought a stack the other day at 87 and unloaded most at 89 as it just wasn't seeming to go anywhere.  I think it will track lower - although I dont expect it to break below 75cents.  In my opinion this will drift until the next announcment of the upgrade in gas reserves due at the end of this month or early next.  The trick is when to buy as once the announcement hits the market I think we will see a decent jump back up towards (and hopefully thorugh) the $1 mark.
> 
> ...




I expect sp will probably bounce around a bit until the announcement is imminent, and then if the news leaks out somewhere, as often seems to be the case with resource stocks, she could start upwards in the days before the announcement - presuming it's a good one. So good luck trying to get the timing. I'm happy just to hold, confident the rise will come when it comes.... but then I'm not a 'trader' either. DOn't have the time or inclination, nor probably the temperament.

- cheers -d


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## Logique (22 January 2010)

In the US overnight weekly natural gas inventories reportedly fell by more than expected (245bcf vs expected draw of 230bcf).  Natural gas prices moved higher, pit trade 2.0% higher at $5.61 per contract.

If you're so convinced the announcement will be a good one, I wouldn't be fretting too much about current sp from here (0.82), and I think Malachii is probably right about strength of support at 0.75.


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## Logique (23 January 2010)

With the US market down another 2% on Friday night, I'd say all bets are off for the near term. I've reviewed all my bids, including this one.


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## Logique (28 January 2010)

ESG stood it's ground pretty well didn't it. Early days yet, but indications that we may see a better night for US markets tonight.  So it feels comfortable for now. AOE is holding up too.


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## pointr (1 February 2010)

And so the long awaaited reserves upgrade is announced and exceeding the 2009 target. Should be more to follow quickly as long as more dewatering problems don't occur. It will probably take something good to overcome the current general market sentiment.


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## Dukey (1 February 2010)

pointr said:


> And so the long awaaited reserves upgrade is announced and exceeding the 2009 target. Should be more to follow quickly as long as more dewatering problems don't occur. It will probably take something good to overcome the current general market sentiment.




Awwwright!!
Those are some nice figures:



> As at 31 December 2009, certified 2P reserves have been increased by 152 % to 1,520 PJ (of which ESG’s net interest is 988 PJ), while certified 3P reserves have increased by 43% to 2,797 PJ (of which ESG’s net interest is 1,818 PJ).



  above from latest ESG announcement.

-Market sentiment aside - those reserves indicate that ESG is way undervalued at it's current market Cap. I'd be surprised if there wasn't some upward pressure from the market.  It might be slower due to current market dodginess - but it should be there.... the reserves are there, and the flowrates are there... 

 even if you massively discount the T/O prices paid last year, which if I recall correctly were in the vicinity of $2M/2P PJ   or $1M/3P PJ......   well... you guys can do the figures.  .... cut those prices in half and it's still way undervalued.

current MC is around $670M.


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## pointr (1 February 2010)

I like your maths and logic Dukey, and I hope the market does as well. Has any of the Queensland CSG / LNG projects actually proceeded to final investment decision. I read today that AOE hoped to reach this point in this quarter. I think when and if these decisions are made, that will establish the new market and totally revalue the east coast gas market and the assetts supplying it


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## Dukey (1 February 2010)

I havn't been keeping up with the progress of LNG projects that closely lately pointr. - I think i remember hearing that someone ... was it santos? - was looking at LNG export from newcastle.  Either way - it all creates more demand for gas.

So as far as ESG is concerned I think it's like that kiwi chick says... "It won't happen overnight, but it will happen"!!


... the reserves announcement is here by the way folks: http://clients.weblink.com.au/clients/easternstar/article.asp?asx=ESG&view=2581075


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## malachii (1 February 2010)

ESG is applying for approval to export LNG through Newcastle.

I'm disappointed with the timing of this announcment - let's face it - if you wanted to make a MAJOR upgrade announcment at any time over the last 6 weeks or so - this last couple of days were probably the only time it wasn't going to make a huge impact.  A couple of weeks either side an I reckon we'd be looking at near enough to $1 and even then, as the numbers that Dukey showed above - it is still undervalued with current going rates.

I think the market will now give this upgrade a slow recognition and trickle it's way up.  I think we'll still see something around the $1 mark - but I reckon we'll just have to wait a little while.

malachii

PS: I OWN ESG SHARES SO MY OPIONIONS ARE VERY BIASED. PLEASE IGNORE ANYTHING I SAY AND DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!!!


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## basilio (1 February 2010)

The current price of ESG shares doesn't make sense does it? The rapidly rising gas reserves suggest a fundamentally higher price particularly if one considers there is much more exploration to be done and that  energy prices  will  only get stronger as the inevitability of peak oil starts to bite.

But I suppose when the market sentiment is so hostile  selling pressures will drive down almost everything regardless of  "intrinsic value" . Other forum members might remember some similar anomalies in the last year when shares were priced at substantial discounts to  actual cash in the bank let alone  huge proven reserves. For example BRM  was selling at 50 cents when it's cash assets alone were worth 85c plus in Dec 2008.

So I suppose that  at some stage the reality of the proven resources ESG is holding will be recognised  and the boat will come.....or does anyone else have another perspective?


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## growing (1 February 2010)

Haha, yeah people are just idiots!! (The sellers I mean!!)

There will always be people selling out of fear despite the individual company results and/or news.

"Look everyone XYZ Ltd has just found 10 trillion dollars worth of GOLD under one of their properties" In a market like this people will sell anyway -- IDIOTS I tell you!!!

I've just come back from New York City, the most densely populated city in North America -- People are infesting the place -- hoards and hoards of them - makes you feel so small and makes you realise your own smart decisions will mean nothing when the masses all follow each other en mass for seemingly no aparant reason.

Enjoy being HUMAN !! - lol


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## malachii (1 February 2010)

Got to admit - I'm a bit surprised that with the quality of the announcement the shares ended the day down 2.5cents.  Just goes to show you can't second guess the market!!

malachii


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## Dukey (1 February 2010)

growing said:


> Haha, yeah people are just idiots!! (The sellers I mean!!)
> 
> There will always be people selling out of fear despite the individual company results and/or news.
> 
> ...




Mmm - amazing!  Blood on the streets today - across my watchlist anyway...:shoot::cowboy:

... even AOE has been pummelled.

Am I game enough to buy?


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## grace (1 February 2010)

Dukey said:


> Mmm - amazing!  Blood on the streets today - across my watchlist anyway...:shoot::cowboy:
> 
> ... even AOE has been pummelled.
> 
> Am I game enough to buy?




I've been watching the techheads and a break below 4500on the XAO seems the bear mark.  Watching this carefully.  Sorry, back on topic.  A brilliant upgrade in any case - plenty of gas in that there coal!

I thought it was at least worth a rise though - even on a bad day (I've picked it in the stock comp....so I was really hoping).  Can't win a trick at the moment.  Back to the drawing board.


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## growing (3 February 2010)

I guess when you have a high dilution of shares like with ESG, you will get more people owning the stock. More people means for a more volatile price. Why ??? Well it's the "human factor". 

Nice rise on the DOW last night and a good rise on the All Ords today *whew* a chance for that announcement to take hold !?!?

Oh WAIT ???? Back down we go to 77.5 cents!!!The "human factor" always lets you down - lol.


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## pointr (3 February 2010)

Eastern Australia currently doesn't have a shortage of gas if my reading and memory serves me well. As various CSG projects ramp up there will be more gas available. I still think it will only be when all systems are go for the QLD LNG export facilities when the next upward rerating will occurr. Domestic customers will need to compete with export customers for the same energy, in addition the exporters may want to secure more feed for their gas plant investment. Another possible scenario could be a downstrem energy retailer wanting to protect their supplies at todays prices who might want ESG's assetts. So I think the longterm prospects are good but we may wait a while for a big pay day - and hopefully not anymore dilution


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## pointr (5 February 2010)

Attached is a url http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100204/pdf/31njn1k0r8bksw.pdf to a presentation made by a Santos senior manager to the Melbourne mining club yesterday. The announcement was also released to the ASX yesterday. A very positive case is put foward about Australia's gas resources being in a good place and time with our proximity to the Asian economies. So again good long term stuff for the Gunnedah Basin gas reserves, but I don't think it will stop today from being another ugly day on the markets


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## basilio (5 February 2010)

The risk is that a serious loss of confidence in the stock markets would  remove the floor from many share prices - regardless of assets in the ground. That would open the way for some  very opportunistic buying by companies like Santos that already have established cash flows and want to secure long term asests at dirt cheap prices...


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## growing (5 February 2010)

In this market if SANTOS buys me out for $1, I will reluctantly accept I'm affraid!!  

Retirement postponed for yet another 12 months -- Aaaargh !!!


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## Dukey (5 February 2010)

growing said:


> In this market if SANTOS buys me out for $1, I will reluctantly accept I'm affraid!!
> 
> Retirement postponed for yet another 12 months -- Aaaargh !!!




Jeeeze... I hope they keep their mits out of it. I'm looking for fair value!... though a bidding war might get us somewhere close. Hasn't been one of those for a while now though. was going to say that times are different now to when the PES war was going down - but I seem to recall the market was tanking on and off then too?
... who knows.

- "Patience grasshopper" - has become my mantra.


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## growing (8 February 2010)

That's IT !!! testing stupid lows at the 71cent mark -- I bought a nice parcel today 

The market can go wallow in its own short term fear while us long term players count our profits when our time comes -- hehehehe  On second thought Santos can't have my shares at $1 - lol


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## Dukey (8 February 2010)

growing said:


> That's IT !!! testing stupid lows at the 71cent mark -- I bought a nice parcel today
> 
> The market can go wallow in its own short term fear while us long term players count our profits when our time comes -- hehehehe  On second thought Santos can't have my shares at $1 - lol




Well done! that there is good buying I'd reckon - and maybe great timing with the chart folk seeming to think a rebound likely. no guarantees in this business of course... but all the best with ESG anyway. -d


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## malachii (11 February 2010)

Good to see this share starting it's comeback.  78.5 today although seemed to be be on fairly light volume today unlike the last couple of days so that is a bit of a concern.  Have too admit to picking up a couple of sizable chunks when it fell below 75 and down to 71.  

I  think this presentation has brought it back onto the radar of some big investors. 

malachii

PS I own a sizable chunk of shares in this company.   All my opinions here are very biased.  Please do your own research!!!


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## growing (16 February 2010)

Yes it's coming back slowly but surely -- more news today which seems to have gone down well! Something I have noticed though with this stock look at this:

110 buyers for 1,237,310 units	203 sellers for 6,666,495 units

from Commsec ... for some reason ESG has ALWAYS had a stupid amount of sellers versus buyers. Yes, sure you might expect that once in a while with people trying to "manipulate" the price with false supply/demand impressions..

It has been like this for a good 12 months solid, the price has fluctuated up and down despite the huge sellers versus buyers which suggests it is indeed someone or some group purposely throwing in lots of units for sale but keeping them out of reach of an actual transaction 

Hmmmm a plot maybe ??? - lol


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## malachii (16 February 2010)

Seem to be banging up against that 80ish resistance level again.  If we can break through that I think we'll be looking somewhere up in the mid 90's again.  

I've never met a company that can come out with absolute corker announcments and yet get such a mediocre response from the market.  It'll be interesting to hear what they say at the ASX small company briefing that they are giving soon.  Might stir a bit more interest and build on the extra trading that seems to have come through from the Singapore briefing.

malachii


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## growing (16 February 2010)

malachii said:


> Seem to be banging up against that 80ish resistance level again.  If we can break through that I think we'll be looking somewhere up in the mid 90's again.
> 
> I've never met a company that can come out with absolute corker announcments and yet get such a mediocre response from the market.  It'll be interesting to hear what they say at the ASX small company briefing that they are giving soon.  Might stir a bit more interest and build on the extra trading that seems to have come through from the Singapore briefing.
> 
> malachii




They need to market themselves that's for sure -- beef the price up ahead of a pending move by Santos


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## malachii (23 February 2010)

Wow - fell off a bit of a cliff today!  No news so not sure what has triggered the sell.  My own opinion is that it is more a "lack of buying" than anything else as there has been no more news since the presentation in Singapore and HK.  With them presenting at the ASX Small to Mid Caps Conference in NY next week and we are due for the drilling report next week and them sitting near the 70cent support as well I think this (in my opinion!!) might be a good time to pick up some more.

malachii

PS - I OWN ESG SHARES AND AM BUYING MORE SO MY OPINION IS VERY BIASED! DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!!


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## pointr (23 February 2010)

Around 3 million shares changed hands today to produce todays little tumble. On Comsecs site, still buyers for 2.2 million shares and sellers for 8.2 million shares, on their little 'depth' screen all the sell orders aren't visible. Does any know at what price the bulk of these sellers are at and if they keep moving ahead of the shareprice???


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## growing (24 February 2010)

pointr said:


> Around 3 million shares changed hands today to produce todays little tumble. On Comsecs site, still buyers for 2.2 million shares and sellers for 8.2 million shares, on their little 'depth' screen all the sell orders aren't visible. Does any know at what price the bulk of these sellers are at and if they keep moving ahead of the shareprice???




Heheh Santos trying to scare people with a false sense of supply and demand - lol (DW that statement was for the conspiracy theorists)

ALTHOUGH, I did see this article on my internet travels (was dated in December 2009 though)..Aaargh, it's a huge link but it is also posted on this guy's blog: www.stockanxiety.com

It was a funny read, he is very disenchanted with the whole energy sector and is writing about it - doesn't tell us anything we don't already know though but he does hold a lot of the same shares I do.

Wildlife dying from the "toxic" Coal Seam Gas water ??? The tree hugging Greens are at it again - :S

Anyway, none of this should be affecting the share price........... Soooo WHAT GIVES ???


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## tunrida (24 February 2010)

bye-bye, cheerio, good day, good-bye, so long, adieu, adios, arrivederci, au revoir, auf wiedersehen, bye, farewell, below 70c


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## malachii (24 February 2010)

tunrida said:


> bye-bye, cheerio, good day, good-bye, so long, adieu, adios, arrivederci, au revoir, auf wiedersehen, bye, farewell, below 70c




HUH?????

My screens show it never traded below 70.5cents.  960,584 shares of the 4,408,521 total shares traded was at 70.5cents.

malachii


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## growing (25 February 2010)

*OH My GOD*

GUYS!?!?!

This guy claims to have contacted ESG's CFO and got a response back from him regarding the current state of the share price which he has POSTED on his bog 

http://stockanxiety.com/

Interesting ..... I wonder when the CFO says "corporate activity" he could be hinting at a SANTOS move ? - ha!! On the other hand my imagination is possibly running away with itself again.


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## pointr (26 February 2010)

If believed, at least he got a reply, I sent an email to AJL CFO for clarification of a matter about a fortnight ago and am yet to see a response. I agree with the points mentioned in the blog, the sector and ESG need FID on some QLD lng projects and or some corporate activity. Time to take a look at the open, expecting nothing pretty Friday and a down day overseas.


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## Miner (26 February 2010)

*Re: OH My GOD*



growing said:


> GUYS!?!?!
> 
> This guy claims to have contacted ESG's CFO and got a response back from him regarding the current state of the share price which he has POSTED on his bog
> 
> ...




Hi Growing 

I followed the weblink to find out the GUY who contacted ESG CFO.
Interesting the GUY has not published his own identity, purpose of the website, his interest and publishes lot of anxities through his web link. He asks people to send him query to be replied. But no one really knows who he or she is.
I sent him a query asking him or her to publish real personality behind the weblink. Otherwise it could be a illusive act by the person behind the website.

*What do you rekon ? Any honest comments will be welcomed*.

Incidentally he or she has focussed on ESG so far and that is why I am posting it in EsG thread.


----------



## jancha (26 February 2010)

pointr said:


> Hi jancha, yeh it probably fulfils many definitions of tanking currently. Technical analysis and the associated decision making are a breeze in hindsight. Ive got to finish this post now, the salt you have poured onto my wounds is causing my _portfolio atrophy_to act up




I think you would bled to death by now Pointer.
That was a sp of around 88c back then & now you can subtract a further 20c off that figure. 
Santos in hind sight look pretty silly buying in at $1 (as well as yours truely) with the current price of around 68c.
How low can you go is the big question now.


----------



## Miner (26 February 2010)

jancha said:


> I think you would bled to death by now Pointer.
> That was a sp of around 88c back then & now you can subtract a further 20c off that figure.
> Santos in hind sight look pretty silly buying in at $1 (as well as yours truely) with the current price of around 68c.
> How low can you go is the big question now.




A bit philosophical question.

Companies like Santos buy ESG at $1 and by sheer volume of their wealth and shareholders grace they get away with the loss. Their CEO still gets a hefty bonus and move on. People who follow their trend sell family jewels and after buying ESG at $1 thinking Santos has some brain. Unfortunately those people tend to sell their garments to survive the loss.

Rio Boss declines to sell the shares to BHPB and make huge losses to the company. He still does not get a sack and earn his bonus. People who lost the opportunity and bought the shares at high price get their belly busted.

Million dollar question is why ESG is receeding ?

There was no such adverse report to support the back trend.


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## growing (26 February 2010)

Miner said:


> A bit philosophical question.
> 
> Companies like Santos buy ESG at $1 and by sheer volume of their wealth and shareholders grace they get away with the loss. Their CEO still gets a hefty bonus and move on. People who follow their trend sell family jewels and after buying ESG at $1 thinking Santos has some brain. Unfortunately those people tend to sell their garments to survive the loss.
> 
> ...




Hi Miner 

Yes this ESG thing is in a shocking state!! Low of 64.5 cents ??? What the hell ?? Hardly ANY buyers and a TRUCK load of sellers??? -- the All Ords is up today yet we are suffering horrible share value declines in ESG and for no apparent reason ??? I went back to look at that www.stockanxiety.com site and I saw your comment - lol He or she replied to your comment, I don't know but I have no reason to think he/she made up the CFO thing (looks like a he) -- The questions look reasonable and so do the answers. The best thing to do is to sit tight and wait for some kind of real NEWS to justify this stupid and sudden decline in the SP.


----------



## jancha (26 February 2010)

growing said:


> Hi Miner
> 
> Yes this ESG thing is in a shocking state!! Low of 64.5 cents ??? What the hell ?? Hardly ANY buyers and a TRUCK load of sellers??? -- the All Ords is up today yet we are suffering horrible share value declines in ESG and for no apparent reason ??? I went back to look at that www.stockanxiety.com site and I saw your comment - lol He or she replied to your comment, I don't know but I have no reason to think he/she made up the CFO thing (looks like a he) -- The questions look reasonable and so do the answers. The best thing to do is to sit tight and wait for some kind of real NEWS to justify this stupid and sudden decline in the SP.




Sit tight did say?
The way the markets going with this one i wont have anything to sit on!!!
Shouldn't there be announcement to explain why the continual decline?


----------



## blackjack (26 February 2010)

its a long term trade this one
hang in there
they have all the right stuff and connections so.................


----------



## rickymgtf (26 February 2010)

blackjack said:


> its a long term trade this one
> hang in there
> they have all the right stuff and connections so.................




Im in this for the long haul too, I cant afford not to be now. There has been no news to force a drop in sp, as often it has risen without news also, so one would expect a stock with good fundamentals to jump back up again. People are like sheep and follow in both directions, lets just see if theres some good news around the corner to kick start us in the right direction... perhaps a good time to top up to bring down the average. Regarding one of the previous posts, I cant see why a ceo would answer such important questions to one shareholder, but then what the hell would i know.


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## growing (26 February 2010)

rickymgtf said:


> Im in this for the long haul too, I cant afford not to be now. There has been no news to force a drop in sp, as often it has risen without news also, so one would expect a stock with good fundamentals to jump back up again. People are like sheep and follow in both directions, lets just see if theres some good news around the corner to kick start us in the right direction... perhaps a good time to top up to bring down the average. Regarding one of the previous posts, I cant see why a ceo would answer such important questions to one shareholder, but then what the hell would i know.




Ha, well I have news -- it was the CFO -- Mr Ian Kirkham. I filled in that guy's "contact me" form at www.stockanxiety.com AND I had a pleasant exchange with him and he forwarded me a copy of the email, BUT on the proviso of confidentiality.

I will honour his confidentiality HOWEVER I will say he contacted Ian, representing a large group of shareholders. So based on the email I have in my possession from the "Stock Anxiety" guy and our friendly conversation, I am convinced it is the real deal!! I'm going out on a limb telling everyone this and PLEASE don't bombard the guy for multiple copies of this email he might get annoyed with me :S

But I like to set records straight and given the STUPID drop in this share price I feel obliged to share everything I have. I will also note though, a general big drop in shares accross the entire energy sector soo I don't know what else I can say except I'm not worried and I'm going to continue to wait


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## malachii (26 February 2010)

This coming week will see the release of news that will either confirm the drop or drive the price back up.  We should see the release of the drilling results and also the presentation at the ASX small and mid companies conference in NY.  Hopefully all will be revealed!

malachii

PS - I OWN SHARES IN ESG - MY OPINION IS VERY BIASED!!


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## Dukey (26 February 2010)

Hesus!!!!

my pc dies for a couple of days and look what happens!  AOE has taken a pasting lately also - Does it have anything to do with Origin/QGC-BG teaming up?: just had a look at that blog... even the first post reveals a load of bollocks.- the guy is either a panic stricken novice.... or intentionally down-ramping.  .... I mean suncorp???? !!! you'd have to be mad IMO!

...IGNORE!

EDIT


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## Nero64 (26 February 2010)

> my pc dies for a couple of days and look what happens! AOE has taken a pasting lately also - Does it have anything to do with Origin/QGC-BG teaming up?




Dukey AOE has fallen due to the uncertainty about how they will fund their LNG plans and some thinking a capital raising might be on the cards.


----------



## Miner (27 February 2010)

Dukey said:


> Hesus!!!!
> 
> my pc dies for a couple of days and look what happens!  AOE has taken a pasting lately also - Does it have anything to do with Origin/QGC-BG teaming up?: just had a look at that blog... even the first post reveals a load of bollocks.- the guy is either a panic stricken novice.... or intentionally down-ramping.  .... I mean suncorp???? !!! you'd have to be mad IMO!
> 
> ...




Dukey

How are you 

Are ESG and AOE related ?

If not, should not the post on AOE be in AOE thread


----------



## basilio (27 February 2010)

The collapse of ESG  SP in the past 6 weeks really bears some examination.

We just had the release of the last  reserves - massively up. On almost any  objective basis this should put a floor under the share price - in fact a rising floor. 

*But the reverse has happened with huge volumes of sales forcing the SP down, creating  anxiety amongst  shareholders, significant doubt about the future of the company and sharply reduced expectations about ESG's value*

We also note that Santos bought a big slab shares at $1. This would have led many investors to be confident about the long term value of ESG and perhaps a juicy takeover (ala  PES)

So what could be possible explanations for this sustained selling pressure ? (all totally hypothetical)

1) The ESG gas reserves are largely fiction.  In fact they have just disappeared into the ether  and will never materialize.

2)There is concern in some quarters that the rapidly rising gas reserves are pushing the price too high and that long term strategy dictates that ESG doesn't become a PES situation.

3) There is a concerted short selling effort to drop ESG and make money by both buying back at lower prices in the short term AND taking a position in a very valuable company for the longer term.

All hypothetical but unfortunately the behaviour of the shares in the past 6 weeks is only reinforcing my view that the main game in the stock market is  short term gambling rather than considered medium/longer investing

Any thoughts ?


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## growing (27 February 2010)

basilio said:


> The collapse of ESG  SP in the past 6 weeks really bears some examination.
> 
> We just had the release of the last  reserves - massively up. On almost any  objective basis this should put a floor under the share price - in fact a rising floor.
> 
> ...




Well, it is interesting to note with ESG at 66.5c I would have ALSO been better off throwing my money in the banks 12 months ago, so the medium/longer term investing attitude would have worked perfectly in that scenario (a view also shared by that stock anxiety guy's blog). It is just purely bad luck I picked the wrong share to park my money in for the past 12 months since March last year 

Dukey, I hear what you're saying about that guy's blog he seems a bit of an amatuer but he certainly got an email from ESG's CFO when the SHYTE was hitting the fan  The CFO's comments were not negative, I don't think the blog is down ramping - he is just as you say over-anxious - especially about his ESG shares but then arent we ALL after this horrible week? haha. If we are to take Ian's comments on board, he talks of "complexities in converting the Coal Seam Gas into LNG weighing on the sector as a whole". So maybe Arrow's decline is not just about the capital raising issue. I think these complexities will be sorted out by the major players in time i.e Origin, Santos, AGL, BG etc etc so the negative sentiment wont be around for long  At 66.5 cents there is good buying to be had IMO.


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## Dukey (27 February 2010)

Miner said:


> Dukey
> 
> How are you
> 
> ...





..... the post was about the fall in sp of both ESG and AOE  - which I think are related (though maybe i didn't express that well enough).... the companies are NOT related... but I think their recent performance may be related.

I'm really not that concerned by esg's recent performance - surprising as it is... more concerned with people panicking, or paying attention to panickers.
-----------
As for your other question - I'm bored!... but thats another story, for another time and place.


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## Miner (27 February 2010)

ESG was bought by Santos at $1.

There is a clause to pay 100% of difference to HGO should Santos buy ESG when the price of  ESG exceed $1.

There is another clause to pay 50% of the difference should ESG be bought by any one else and ESG priced at more than $1.

With the above two clauses does it mean that Santos has an exit clause on ESG ? I do not know and asking question here.

Most hypothetically there is an exit clause for Santos to cancel the deal with ESG because the price of ESG is now much much below $1, does it correlate the price fall of ESG recently.

It is pure speculative thought not having read the terms for purchase of ESG by Santos. All I am trying to see if the world sess it, Santos would not be a fool to strike such a too good deal to be true with ESG.  I will be extremely happy if such speculation thought be hammered by others as wrong.


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## grace (28 February 2010)

I have been away from my screen too and got quite a surprise to find it back in the 60's.

However, if I was going to take over a company, I would wait for the share price to be depressed before making my move.  I guess that is why I will hang in there.  

I see a sharemarket bear as a time for opportunity for the strong.

I would not be surprised if Santos make a move when despair hits our sharemarket again.  Just my opinion, and I could be totally wrong.


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## philly (28 February 2010)

grace said:


> I have been away from my screen too and got quite a surprise to find it back in the 60's.
> 
> However, if I was going to take over a company, I would wait for the share price to be depressed before making my move.  I guess that is why I will hang in there.
> 
> ...




Hi Grace,
I had the same thought. The drop in SP represents a buying opportunity given that IMO the drop in SP cannot be attributed to any adverse news concerning ESG. In fact the recent news[ ie increase  in reserves] should have had a positive effect on the SP. If SANTOS is making a play for more of ESG then aren't they obliged to tell the ASX? And if they are then that should be enough to calm shareholders. It maybe that the current drop in SP has flushed out the traders. DISCLAIMER: I hold ESG & DYOR


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## growing (1 March 2010)

Miner said:


> Dukey
> 
> How are you
> 
> ...





The state of AOE is in fact very important for all ESG holders for a couple of reasons:

1) Corporate activity - Although AOE are more CASH rich and have a much larger Market Cap than ESG, they are also partly owned by Shell. A takeover of Arrow by Shell is on the cards and one might talk "when" rather than "if".

2)  They represent a more advanced version of ESG's business model with only minor differences. Therefore when the bigger player catches a flu, the smaller players will likely catch a cold. AOE's share price is down, down a lot and IMO represent a good buying opportunity along with ESG (Although with ESG you are likely to get a higher % return due to the smaller SP number).

The CFO's comments of "Negative Press Sentiment" from that www.stockanxiety.com blog coupled with end of month trading pressure is most likely the major cause of the sell off. 

I did read another post in Hot copper from a guy who explained the intricate details of day to day trading using some computer software which skirts on the border of being legal. He has lodged a complaint with the ASX and points to ESG as being a victim of this software.  

I believe the general consensus is to wait it out, for all you rich buggers out there, you can visit the up and coming CSG conference which goes for 3 days and is held at the Sofitel in Brisbane. To go for all 3 days will set you back $4500 but if anyone is really worried about the sector they can go along and tell us all about it - http://www.csgsummit.com.au/ hehe. David Casey MD of ESG will be there as well as other representatives of big CSG players.

I would dream of the above post to be true (recent trading gets rid of the traders out of the stock) *sigh* we all wish


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## malachii (1 March 2010)

Drilling report in and it's good news.  All going ahead as per expectations!!

malachii

PS - I OWN SHARES IN ESG - MY OPINION IS VERY BIASED!!


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## growing (2 March 2010)

malachii said:


> Drilling report in and it's good news.  All going ahead as per expectations!!
> 
> malachii
> 
> PS - I OWN SHARES IN ESG - MY OPINION IS VERY BIASED!!




Well this guy did something I should have done, he checked ESG against the ASX-200 Energy Share Price Index...

Take a look at the chart: www.stockanxiety.com

I think we can see why ESG has tanked  Nothing to do with ESG itself just sector-wide selling!!


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## Miner (2 March 2010)

growing said:


> Well this guy did something I should have done, he checked ESG against the ASX-200 Energy Share Price Index...
> 
> Take a look at the chart: www.stockanxiety.com
> 
> I think we can see why ESG has tanked  Nothing to do with ESG itself just sector-wide selling!!




Hi Growing 

Thanks for your reference to stockanxiety.com site. I saw a brief chart there but I am not clear where the comparative chart is located. 


Incidentally I noticed the guy who runs the very website has been posting a lot on ESG and at the same time claimed his site being an entertainment site for removing his anxiety. Interesting disclaimer to avoid any fall back. 

What is more interesting that even the site meant for his (Mr Paul Something) entertainment only he manages to get advertisement and ASF readers are getting his free publicity here too.

ESG has gone some rise today which is  a good sign and let us see what RBA decision makes to ESG and other stocks on Tuesday.


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## growing (2 March 2010)

Miner said:


> Hi Growing
> 
> Thanks for your reference to stockanxiety.com site. I saw a brief chart there but I am not clear where the comparative chart is located.
> 
> ...




Hi Miner,

Yes the chart he posted there is the ASX Energy 200 Index. To compare, anyone can check any of their energy stocks against it. It does not only apply to ESG. Miner, the guy is not evil he is just an amateur Blogger of which there are millions out there. He happens to be following the ESG stock closely because he presumably owns a chunk. I think if he was out to make money, he would comment on a wider range of stocks - it looks to me like he is doing it for his own personal purposes and people can choose to follow him for entertainment purposes only. It doesn't matter if ESG holders have him on their radar or not but I say, the more information you have access to, the better. I have had correspondence with him and obtained his email from the CFO of ESG so he is nice enough. Also the traffic or publicity he is getting from here would not be very much at all and whatever he does get he can take credit for, after all he made the effort to contact ESG when none of us did


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## malachii (3 March 2010)

Looks like the selling pressure has eased and buyers are returning.  I think it's a combinations of things including:
      - The drilling report being released on time and containing good information

      - The recognition by the wider market the sector and this company have been oversold

      - Early buying in anticipation of the briefing in NY tomorrow night (Aus time) with analysts and fund managers.

Should be a good end to the week and building to a good week next week with any luck.

malachii

PS - I OWN SHARES IN ESG - MY OPINION IS VERY BIASED!!


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## growing (4 March 2010)

malachii said:


> Looks like the selling pressure has eased and buyers are returning.  I think it's a combinations of things including:
> - The drilling report being released on time and containing good information
> 
> - The recognition by the wider market the sector and this company have been oversold
> ...





Hi Malachii!!

Yes, there appears to be volumes massing on the front line which is encouraging. It hit 69.5 cents yesterday before falling back again though  It just can't seem to get any real legs however I've also been watching WCL who released big news (corporate activity) lets see if this has any flow on effects


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## malachii (4 March 2010)

Yeah - timed that comment to perfection.  I reckon that as I hit submit the price tanked and started dropping.  

malachii


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## malachii (5 March 2010)

Good to see the share spike today - particularly as it held it leading into a long weekend (or is that only a Victorian thing?).  It's good to see the pickup from the briefing - should lead into a good week next week.

malachii

PS - I OWN SHARES IN ESG - MY OPINION IS VERY BIASED!!


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## growing (6 March 2010)

malachii said:


> Good to see the share spike today - particularly as it held it leading into a long weekend (or is that only a Victorian thing?).  It's good to see the pickup from the briefing - should lead into a good week next week.
> 
> malachii
> 
> PS - I OWN SHARES IN ESG - MY OPINION IS VERY BIASED!!




That stockanxiety.com guy talks about possible upward pressure coming from the Pink Sheets market in the U.S ?? Anyone know what that is ??


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## Dukey (6 March 2010)

growing said:


> That stockanxiety.com guy talks about possible upward pressure coming from the Pink Sheets market in the U.S ?? Anyone know what that is ??




I believe it's like 'claytons' listing! - a way of gaining access to US investor without having to list properly on the stock exchange - so they buy these pink sheets or whatever - a bit like investment bonds i suppose.  

wikipedia here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pink_Sheets

.. makes it sound almost dodgy - would think ESG is better established than that?


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## growing (8 March 2010)

Aaagh, thanks Dukey!!

Yes well it can be interpreted as a way hungry U.S investors can buy into ESG easily without having to convert their money or deal with the asx..

Maybe ESG got demand from U.S investment and listed it for their sake?

Who knows

The HUGE news for the sector is ARROW'S takeover!!! I think THIS is the type of corporate activity ESG's CFO was talking about in that email which should boost the price. It went as high as 78 cents this morning but fell back however the amount of shares for sale has finally fallen a little!! FINALLY!


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## chops_a_must (8 March 2010)

Over the last few years there has been nothing to dissuade me from the belief that this company potentially has the best future return per PJ in the sector.

The long long term trend is still in place, and the potential buyers are all in place. Most of these falls are just noise. It is a very volatile stock and should be treated as such.


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## growing (10 March 2010)

Doesn't take long for ESG to run out of steam ...


For all the buyers out there, there are plenty of sellers of ESG to meet the demand ..


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## malachii (12 March 2010)

Huge volumes going through this morning.  Over 2 mil shares changed hands by 10:12.  It didn't even pause when it took out the 600 000 shares are 83 cents.  No announcement but someone (with deep pockets!) must know something.

malachii

PS - I OWN SHARES IN ESG - MY OPINION IS VERY BIASED!!


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## malachii (12 March 2010)

Almost 500 000 shares at 85 cents taken out in 1 bite.  What is going on????

malachii

PS - I OWN SHARES IN ESG - MY OPINION IS VERY BIASED!!


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## growing (12 March 2010)

Buyers and sellers evening out at last -- had to happen - it has only taken MONTHS and MONTHS for the sell side stack to finally reduce a bit.


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## malachii (12 March 2010)

The sort of spike on this mornings market though - 3 mil shares in 20 minutes for this stock is pretty big and it was just swallowing up whole levels at a time....big numbers.  

The only thing I can think of is some one knows something about the drilling report being released next week.....or maybe it's just one of those things.

malachii

PS - I OWN SHARES IN ESG - MY OPINION IS VERY BIASED!!


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## Logique (12 March 2010)

A reward for your patience Malachii. 
Some coincident factors working for us holders at present:
- renewed confidence in international markets and economies. I doubt that Greece will be allowed to fail.
- global oil price showing recent strength 
- the bid for Arrow Energy by Shell has sparked up the general csg sector. If PES went last year at $8 plus, is AOE really likely to go for just $5 something? So if a higher bid comes along for AOE, this would reflect well on the inferred value of ESG.

So I'd say a technical price base has been placed under a range of csg stocks, making bidders more confident now. For ESG, with the daily downtrend seemingly broken, that recent resistance at 0.95 - 1.00 could be challenged again.


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## Logique (12 March 2010)

> “Both Eastern Star and Arrow Energy are in the coal-seam gas space, so whenever there’s a takeover of one company, people will suggest that the other one’s next off the block,” Chris Weston, an institutional dealer at IG Markets in Melbourne, said in a telephone interview. “Oil Search is also leveraged in this space.”
> 
> Eastern Star in particular, with its “relatively good assets,” and “attractive” price, may be seen as a potential target, Weston said.
> 
> Quote from Bloomberg article at URL: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=azb2EpuQcc9w



Also see a NZ Herald article mentioning ESG and Bow at: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10630971&ref=rss

Both in recent days.


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## Logique (19 March 2010)

Tidy move today, +9.58% so far to 0.92. 
With AOE on a trading halt, the market seems to think that an upped offer might come in from Shell for Arrow. Hence some hubris by association for ESG, but for the believers, not without just cause.


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## growing (20 March 2010)

Has anybody done an analysis on Arrow's reserves versus ESG's reserves then do a price comparison ??

It would be interesting to see what ESG would be worth as an exact comparison based on reserves with Arrow??


----------



## jancha (21 March 2010)

growing said:


> Has anybody done an analysis on Arrow's reserves versus ESG's reserves then do a price comparison ??
> 
> It would be interesting to see what ESG would be worth as an exact comparison based on reserves with Arrow??




Aren't ESG still adding to there reserves?
Cant see being able to find a comparison as ones producing & the other still adding to there reserves & not producing.
However the location of ESG's reserves are in a handy location as well as the interest Santos has in them & that has to play a big part in their SP.


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## grace (21 March 2010)

Some figures on BOW

At $1.50 x 239 mill on issue
= $358 mill market cap
divide by 2318 of 3P
= $0.15mill per PJ of 3P

Recent takover Santos on ESG reserves was $0.66mill per PJ of 3P. 

*ESG Reserves including contingent
3P + 3C = 9012PJ
2P + 2C = 5035PJ*

At sp 0.93 x 924mill fully diluted
MC = $859mill
Cash = $41mill ($54mill at 31/12/09 less est. March qtr spend $13mill)
Apportionment for gas = $818mill

2P = 1520PJ (65% to ESG = 988PJ)
3P = 2797PJ (65% to ESG = 1818PJ)

$0.83mill per PJ of 2P
$0.45mill per PJ of 3P

Santos paid $0.66 per PJ of 3P on ESG reserves.  Share price needs a rise of 47% to equate to the Santos transaction.

I haven't done the figures on Arrow, only heard a broker say that it is way below the heights reached for previous transactions (which were up to $4.95mill per PJ of 2P).  Even the lowest price paid ever for 2P is $1.71mill per PJ, so still room to move upwards on those figures.

Let me know if you agree with these figures, or not.  Contingent reserves look attractive!  I wonder what BOW's contingent reserves are?


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## growing (22 March 2010)

Thanks Grace, that is great detail I also found a comparison between ESG and the Arrow transaction here:

http://www.stockanxiety.com

Not as much detail as you though but it is something


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## pointr (24 March 2010)

While not specifically about ESG but certainly of relevance to the space in which it operates, ie east coast CBM. Bloombergs is reporting that Martin Ferguson will be in Bejing today for the signing of a BIG LNG contract.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a9gAkUQ4XWXI
 The LNG to come from the Curtis Island project in Gladstone. It is news like this that underpins the value of east coast CBM reserves for both exporters and local energy companies trying to secure gas for their businesses in Australia. So ESG keep drilling and increasing the resource and reserves, at some point there should be rewards for the patient


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## gooner (24 March 2010)

pointr said:


> While not specifically about ESG but certainly of relevance to the space in which it operates, ie east coast CBM. Bloombergs is reporting that Martin Ferguson will be in Bejing today for the signing of a BIG LNG contract.
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a9gAkUQ4XWXI
> The LNG to come from the Curtis Island project in Gladstone. It is news like this that underpins the value of east coast CBM reserves for both exporters and local energy companies trying to secure gas for their businesses in Australia. So ESG keep drilling and increasing the resource and reserves, at some point there should be rewards for the patient




Interesting. Given the price based on AOE metrics and risk of further capital issuance, think I will avoid ESG.  I hold AOE and was thinking of moving some of the money across to ESG, but current share price a bit rich for me.


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## jancha (24 March 2010)

gooner said:


> Interesting. Given the price based on AOE metrics and risk of further capital issuance, think I will avoid ESG.  I hold AOE and was thinking of moving some of the money across to ESG, but current share price a bit rich for me.





Interesting.
I rather see their value at what Santos values them at.
So what do you think would be a fair price to which you'd come in at?


----------



## gooner (24 March 2010)

jancha said:


> Interesting.
> I rather see their value at what Santos values them at.
> So what do you think would be a fair price to which you'd come in at?




Around 70 cents would be appealing for me as this provides a good discount to the AOE metrics. I just can not see much upside in current price without a bid being made.  Obviously if the bid comes in, then there is plenty of upside.


----------



## jancha (24 March 2010)

gooner said:


> Around 70 cents would be appealing for me as this provides a good discount to the AOE metrics. I just can not see much upside in current price without a bid being made.  Obviously if the bid comes in, then there is plenty of upside.




I traded in & out of AOE & made a profit of 40k overall so i should be happy with that yes?
Well i'm not. Last time i bought them i promised myself to hang on to them as long term but couldn't resist the temptation to sell when they hit around $2.60. Couldn't get back in as they kept going up & wasn't about to chase them.
Anyway it's the same with ESG but this time i'm sticking to the plan.


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## malachii (24 March 2010)

jancha,

I tend to agree with gooner on this one.  

Fundamentally - ESG is worth north of $1.  However in this current market all the good news about ESG reserves, good management etc have been factored in and the takeover interest caused by AOE has made the market drive the price to about the 90cent range.  I think you'll find (barring any amazingly fantastic brilliant unexpected find/takeover offer) that the price will drift back down into the mid 70s (or maybe even into the 60s) over the next few weeks/months as the interest in the sector wanes.  Heaven help the price if the company releases any bad or even OK news over the next couple of months.

The next hurdle for the sector is not so much locating the gas deposits - as finding something to do with them.  The market is waiting to see what happens with the LNG plants out at Gladstone and then if there will be a massive oversupply of LNG in the Asian region.  Until this starts to settle - there remains a "question mark" over the viability of the industry.  Remember that while CSG is currently used domestically - and will be for a long time - we now have so much as a resource that unless we can export it efficiently - it is of no real use.

This is my opinion only - do your own research.  I am a firm believer in this industry and have several large investments in it with various companies.  I was an early investor in QGC when it was proving that CSG could be actually used for anything at all.  To me, this is just the next phase of "proving" for the industry.  It will get through it but it is still a risk that the market is factoring in (and rightly so!).

malachii


----------



## jancha (24 March 2010)

malachii said:


> jancha,
> 
> I tend to agree with gooner on this one.
> 
> ...


----------



## Logique (24 March 2010)

malachii said:


> ..However in this current market all the good news about ESG reserves, good management etc have been factored in and the takeover interest caused by AOE has made the market drive the price to about the 90cent range.  I think you'll find (barring any amazingly fantastic brilliant unexpected find/takeover offer) that the price will drift back down into the mid 70s (or maybe even into the 60s) over the next few weeks/months as the interest in the sector wanes.  Heaven help the price if the company releases any bad or even OK news over the next couple of months.
> malachii




I feel compelled to say - this is also where I currently am in my thinking. If a bid comes in, it's egg-on-the-face time, that's the risk one chooses to take or otherwise. Also it seems Arrow may go for less than I had thought, and as well AOE has suffered a broker downgrade in recent days.


----------



## philly (24 March 2010)

This is off breaking news in "The Age"

Gas: Australia's biggest-ever deal looms March 24, 2010 - 12:43PM

Australia's single biggest trade deal is about to be signed-off, with a state-owned Chinese group expected to agree to buy $80 billion in natural gas from a Queensland project.

Resources Minister Martin Ferguson is in Beijing for the signing of the deal between Britain's BG Group and the China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC), according to a report.

The deal by which CNOOC would buy 3.6 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from BG Group's Queensland Curtis LNG project each year for 20 years was proposed in May 2009.

The deal is expected to be worth about $80 billion and would be Australia's biggest ever trade, eclipsing a $50 billion deal from the massive Gorgon LNG project offshore from Western Australia.

And this is from me...
and where does BG propose to get all this LNG?
Stay tuned for more consolidation in the CSG sector.
All IMHO and DYOR
I hold ESG


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## malachii (24 March 2010)

Philly,

Unless I'm mistaken this will be sourced from the QGC reserves that BG purchased last year and put through their proposed LNG plant in Gladstone.

Again - this is emphasising the fact that the market "hopes" that CSG is able to be processed into LNG and transported effeciently to China.  It also touches on the "hope" that China doesn't have any bumps in the "miracle economic" growth story and that there is not an oversupply of LNG in Asia over the next decade.  Bear in mind that IF all the LNG plants (including the PNG LNG) plants come on line over the next 5 or so years - there will be much more LNG available than required.  Basic supply and demand equation....

malachii


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## kingcarmleo (24 March 2010)

malachii said:


> Philly,
> 
> Unless I'm mistaken this will be sourced from the QGC reserves that BG purchased last year and put through their proposed LNG plant in Gladstone.
> 
> ...




You don't get it do you? You think the biggest companies in the world would spend billions CSG-LNG if they had any doubts over it being viable? The gas glut is a load of rubbish that was spun out of a few media reports. Anyway ESG is in a great position as they are the most dominant gas company in NSW and holds a competitve advantage over the competition. 

The AOE metrics are dissapointing, however STO has already paid some decent metrics for esg and it will be very hard for them to backpeddle and offer something smaller.


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## malachii (24 March 2010)

kingcarmleo

Sorry - not sure what your getting at.  I do get it and have understood and invested in this sector for many years.  Before you blow your top may I politely suggest you read previous posts and comments made by myself and others.

You will also note that I (although I must admit to not putting the declaration on today - brain fade!!) declare in most previous posts that I am a substantial holder of ESG shares.

I think you should also be careful.  At this stage NO company has spent billions of dollars on infrastructure for CSG to LNG.  All infrastructure at this stage is in planning and none have "turned the first sod" or even got full approvals.  A few have "significant status" standing from the state government.  No company has yet proven that they can even turn CSG into LNG efficiently.  Realistically - nobody expects this to be a major problem but the market will still factor the risk into the price until proven otherwise.

The "gas glut" as you call it may have been spun out of a few media reports (I dont know what media reports you are referring too) but it doesn't take much research to see how much is predicted to come online over the next decade and compare it to current usage and growth to come to the conclusion that there is a lot of people going to be looking for customers.  That was one of the significant things about the AOE takeover - that it came with a large customer (Petro China).

Anyway - happy to discuss further but not happy to be abused for having a researched opinion.

malachii


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## pointr (26 March 2010)

Bloomberg is reporting on an AFR 'Street Talk' article that said Petronas and Santos may bid on ESG.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=asToYWSP6fLA
No source given for the AFR report, I suppose its a good time for CSG / LNG rumours with recent sector activity. Santos also has an extra 100million to find a home for after selling some resource to Magellan, als announced today. We will continue to hold,wait and hope for a good payday,oneday


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## kingcarmleo (26 March 2010)

malachii said:


> kingcarmleo
> 
> Sorry - not sure what your getting at.  I do get it and have understood and invested in this sector for many years.  Before you blow your top may I politely suggest you read previous posts and comments made by myself and others.
> 
> ...




Once again the biggest oil and gas companies have got it wrong have they?

Enough of this talk.

Anyway as pointr mentioned there is street talk of a bid from petronas n sto. DC has been overseas for close to a month now.... wonder what he is doing.

I hope we don't get lowballed like aoe, DC has said we are worth 2.4 bill at least so I expect him to honour this valuation or else we have been failed as sharehodlers.


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## jancha (26 March 2010)

gooner said:


> Around 70 cents would be appealing for me as this provides a good discount to the AOE metrics. I just can not see much upside in current price without a bid being made.  Obviously if the bid comes in, then there is plenty of upside.




Good luck with picking it up at low 70s.
Lot of upside & strong support.
Guess you've missed the boat on this one Gooner.


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## NedFlanders (26 March 2010)

Well put.

And, kingcarmeleo, I'll say what malachii was too polite say - relax and get some manners.

And, yes, big companies do get stuff wrong from time to time.

And yes, I'm a holder.



malachii said:


> kingcarmleo
> 
> Sorry - not sure what your getting at.  I do get it and have understood and invested in this sector for many years.  Before you blow your top may I politely suggest you read previous posts and comments made by myself and others.
> 
> ...


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## kingcarmleo (26 March 2010)

NedFlanders said:


> Well put.
> 
> And, kingcarmeleo, I'll say what malachii was too polite say - relax and get some manners.
> 
> ...





I'm sick of this drivel that CSG-LNG might not be viable. I think you should go talk to COP,BG,SHELL,CNOOC,CNPC,STO,ORG,AOE. Now they are world class companies, what would you say the likelihood of all of them being wrong would be?


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## Smurf1976 (27 March 2010)

kingcarmleo said:


> I'm sick of this drivel that CSG-LNG might not be viable. I think you should go talk to COP,BG,SHELL,CNOOC,CNPC,STO,ORG,AOE. Now they are world class companies, what would you say the likelihood of all of them being wrong would be?



In terms of useful (flammable) gases, CSG is methane.

Conventional natural gas is also predominantly methane but also contains propane (what your BBQ runs on), butane (another LPG gas commonly found in Autogas and in cigarette lighters) and ethane (petrochemical feedstock). The non-methane gases are normally stripped out for separate marketing since they are far more vaulable than methane, leaving only the methane in the natural gas stream that goes into pipelines or for conversion to LNG. 

The only real exceptions I'm aware of is (1) small gas fields where it's uneconomic to remove the propane etc due to scale or remoteness and (2) LNG destined for Japan which still contains the LPG gases due to gas specifications in that country. Sometimes this requires the additon of purchaed LPG (propane, butane) in addition to that naturally found in the gas.

Ethane is generally only removed if there's a local need for it. Eg Bass Strait - enough ethane is removed to meet petrochemical industry use in Vic and the rest is simply left in the natural gas that goes in to pipelines to homes etc. It causes no real hassle to leave it in, it's just that it's valuable (but not easily transportable) for other uses. Same with propane and butane except that they are more easily transported and hence more commonly removed from natural gas.

LPG (propane, butane and some other very similar gases) are also produced from crude oil at refineries that produce petrol, diesel etc. LPG from either oil refineries or stripped from natural gas is interchangeable in usage (though at least one oil refinery in Australia produces the propane and butane as a single mixed product stream specifically intended for use as Autogas - but they could separate the two gases if they wanted to (but there's no need in that specific case). 

I'd be very, very surprised if there's a technical issue in converting CSG (methane) into LNG given that LNG is simply liquid methane at -161 degrees C. Depending on what market they are selling it into, they might need to purchase LPG (propane, butane) to add to the mix - but that shouldn't be a huge problem with proper organisation of shipping etc (and I'm sure that the likes of Shell, BP etc can work out how to source and ship LPG - it's a well established industry).


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## Dukey (27 March 2010)

Smurf1976 said:


> In terms of useful (flammable) gases, CSG is methane.
> 
> Conventional natural gas is also predominantly methane but also contains propane (what your BBQ runs on), butane (another LPG gas commonly found in Autogas and in cigarette lighters) and ethane (petrochemical feedstock). The non-methane gases are normally stripped out for separate marketing since they are far more vaulable than methane, leaving only the methane in the natural gas stream that goes into pipelines or for conversion to LNG.
> 
> ...




Thanks for that smurf - everything I've ever read in my CSG research has supported your conclusions above - havn't yet read any release or announcement talking about the 'challenge' of conversion or whatever. 

Added to that - the customers wouldn't be cueing up like they are to get involved for a product they could not use, or didn't trust!!

-d


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## malachii (27 March 2010)

Sorry - never meant to give the impression that it cant be done - just that it hasn't been done before and the market was factoring this risk into the price.  

Smurf has written a great technical piece on the specifics of it.  The only thing I would add is as the calorific value is lower (due to high methane content) the price at this stage is expected to be about 10% lower than "normal" LNG (which is 15% lower than the oil price parity).  The Japanese seem to be saying that they wont lock into long term contracts because of this and yet in the next breath Toyota Tsusho signed a deal with LNG's Fisherman's Landing project for 1.5 million tonnes a year.  

malachii

PS - A big call to say that it wont go back into the 70s and that "he's missed the boat".  3 weeks ago it was in the 60s!

PSPS - Have sold some shares to take profits - still a big believer in this company so still very biased!!


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## malachii (28 March 2010)

3 good interviews on CSG and LNG on Inside Business this morning.

http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/

malachii


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## Logique (29 March 2010)

Thanks for the link Malachii. I saw those interviews on Inside Business - they could hardly have been more bullish on the sector and the future gas prices. 

What about this from Grace over on the 'Your Top 3 holdings' thread: how good is she doing!


> 1. ESG
> 2. BOW (soon to be equal to or more than my ESG holding though)
> 3. AOE
> 
> ...


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## growing (29 March 2010)

interesting how nobody has mentioned this SANTOS - Petronas thing since Friday's article ??

Didn't get a mention in Inside Business -- no Denial today even though the article obviously affected the share price


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## malachii (30 March 2010)

Good article out of the CSG conference in Brisbane.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...m-gas-conference/story-e6frg8zx-1225847171696

Better not read it kingcarmleo - it mentions the "gas glut" and actually puts some numbers to it.

malachii


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## growing (30 March 2010)

malachii said:


> Good article out of the CSG conference in Brisbane.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...m-gas-conference/story-e6frg8zx-1225847171696
> 
> ...





I wouldn't worry about a gus glut. Developing countries with simply astronomical populations will continue to breed more people and more people need more energy...

INDIA is yet to throw their weight around although they expressed interest in buying all the COAL we can supply. In time, Coal will be replaced by gas  Clean energy and all that


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## jancha (9 April 2010)

malachii said:


> Sorry - never meant to give the impression that it cant be done - just that it hasn't been done before and the market was factoring this risk into the price.
> 
> Smurf has written a great technical piece on the specifics of it.  The only thing I would add is as the calorific value is lower (due to high methane content) the price at this stage is expected to be about 10% lower than "normal" LNG (which is 15% lower than the oil price parity).  The Japanese seem to be saying that they wont lock into long term contracts because of this and yet in the next breath Toyota Tsusho signed a deal with LNG's Fisherman's Landing project for 1.5 million tonnes a year.
> 
> ...




Malachii Not such a big call unless there's a double dip & even then i doubt it would reach 70s let alone 60s. 
The big call would be to say that it would go back down to that level.
Gooner would be wishing otherwise but as i previously said you wont get them back at those prices you've missed the boat. Currently nudging $1.


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## jancha (9 April 2010)

jancha said:


> Malachii Not such a big call unless there's a double dip & even then i doubt it would reach 70s let alone 60s.
> The big call would be to say that it would go back down to that level.
> Gooner would be wishing otherwise but as i previously said you wont get them back at those prices you've missed the boat. Currently nudging $1.




Correction currently $1.025.
Some serious buying  2 over 750k & 1.1mill in volume.
News perhaps coming?


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## pointr (9 April 2010)

Yes good to see this jump Jancha. The buying orders now being about twice the sellers. It would be nice if all Fridays were like this, we'll wait and see if any news appears next week.


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## awg (9 April 2010)

While cussing over a 50 yr old engine today, I overheard on the local ABC a short piece about possible gas pipeline to Newcastle.

ESG and Apollo were both mentioned, and another gas co, but I missed it.
(wasnt MEL)

I believe there may have even been a soundbite from an ESG spokesman.

Checked anns when I got home, nothing on either, but good rises, AZO up over 12%

Have heard whispers that the absolutely hopeless NSW Labor Govt is looking to make some announcements of their own in this area, in an attempt to shore themselves up.

God help them (Labor) if they have to actually make an effort in Newcastle, they have been raping the land and citizenry up here for decades


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## Smurf1976 (9 April 2010)

malachii said:


> Better not read it kingcarmleo - it mentions the "gas glut" and actually puts some numbers to it.



Short term a glut is quite possible I'd agree. But in the long term we're going to need all the energy we can get, especially fuels (including gas) which can be used for transport as conventional oil supplies decline.


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## pointr (12 April 2010)

11 million shares traded to drive the price up on friday(4th highest volume in a year). 5 million traded to day, still moving upward. Buy orders now outnumbering the sellers fairly consistently. Any more thoughts on this recent activity??


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## malachii (12 April 2010)

Good sign breaking that 0.96 to $1 "resistence" level that has been a ceiling for quite a while.  Holding above it (and increasing today) is also a very good sign.

The only short term problem that I see is - what else (ie news) is coming to drive the price up?  As far as I can see - all the good news is factored in.  There is a drilling report due late this week or early next week but I cant see there being anything in there.  Short of a new takeover or increased corporate activity in the sector maybe????!!!  Open to suggestions.

malachii


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## pointr (12 April 2010)

Perhaps it may be a case as one commentator put it regarding ESG last week of being a 'steady flow of good news over the next 12 months". If that is the case their may be a series of little moves through ever higher resistance levels, punctuated by various market moods or corporate or sector activity.


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## Logique (19 April 2010)

Nearly panicked and sold out this morning after the big falls in the US on Friday night - glad I didn't. 

Now in the ASX announcements I see the 27 page presentation 'Excellence in Oil and Gas', being presented by the CEO today 19th April at the Hilton Hotel. It makes good reading with some nice positive graphics.


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## jancha (19 April 2010)

Logique said:


> Nearly panicked and sold out this morning after the big falls in the US on Friday night - glad I didn't.
> 
> Now in the ASX announcements I see the 27 page presentation 'Excellence in Oil and Gas', being presented by the CEO today 19th April at the Hilton Hotel. It makes good reading with some nice positive graphics.




Panicked over a 1% drop on Wall Street on Friday night?
Boy you must have been a nervous wreck thru the GFC.


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## growing (29 April 2010)

Down she goes again. Qtrly came out but no news came with it.

ESG knows how to take her time but I guess it will be worth it if a higher price can be gained from its shares when takeover day happens.


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## pointr (4 May 2010)

Any thoughts on the current downward price action?. Is this the 'smart money' leaving, stop's being triggered, or just a good buying opportunity. I don't know.
I dont think the nature of this type of development is going to generate price changing news from the drill bit unlike conventional oil and gas. The upward drivers will be steady apart from exceptional production from pilot projects, corporate activity or significant development announcements


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## Logique (4 May 2010)

This wouldn't have helped:
Coal seam gas sector fears blowout from RSPT 
http://www.smh.com.au/business/coal-seam-gas-sector-fears-blowout-from-rspt-20100503-u3qe.html



> QUEENSLAND'S coal seam gas sector, the darling of the resources sector, could come crashing back to earth. Analysts expect it to be one of the hardest hit under the federal government's resource super profits tax.
> 
> John Hirjee, of Deutsche Bank, said coal seam gas to liquefied natural gas could be the biggest loser from the proposed changes.




As to the future of ESG, it's hostage to the proposed RSPT, along with the rest of the resources sector. Markets hate uncertainty. ESG is a sound business, but 40% tax on super profits is going to affect your bottom line.


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## philly (4 May 2010)

Logique said:


> This wouldn't have helped:
> Coal seam gas sector fears blowout from RSPT
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/coal-seam-gas-sector-fears-blowout-from-rspt-20100503-u3qe.html
> 
> ...




Not sure this is the case. This is from PetroleumNews.net.au
WHILE the oil and gas industry has raised concerns about the impact of the proposed tax changes brought by the Henry Tax Review on the coal seam gas sector in Queensland, junior explorers will benefit from the introduction of a resource exploration rebate.

IMHO the drop in SP maybe due to ESG'S current drilling programme coming to an end and not resuming until later this year. See ASX announcement yesterday
I nvestors may be moving out looking for better opportunities elsewhere
All IMHO & DYOR


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## growing (4 May 2010)

philly said:


> Not sure this is the case. This is from PetroleumNews.net.au
> WHILE the oil and gas industry has raised concerns about the impact of the proposed tax changes brought by the Henry Tax Review on the coal seam gas sector in Queensland, junior explorers will benefit from the introduction of a resource exploration rebate.
> 
> IMHO the drop in SP maybe due to ESG'S current drilling programme coming to an end and not resuming until later this year. See ASX announcement yesterday
> ...




With a 16 Million trade volume and the biggest single day fall since early 2009, there are bigger issues at play! I've just read a VERY heated post on stockanxiety.com 's blog! He is pretty angry and he posted up a link to Bloomberg article specific to Eastern Star Gas! I dont have the link off hand but it is on his post anyway and his post is pretty funny! Actually its not that funny when I look at my own personal ESG holdings decline today


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## basilio (28 May 2010)

That was a BIG recovery by ESG today. Up 14.6% Over 12 million shares traded. Certainly been oversold but is there more to the rise than just that ? Hope so...


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## malachii (28 May 2010)

I think we are in the opposite to what was discussed a few weeks ago.  Back then all the good news was factored into the stock and short of a takeover offer for the company - it really wasn't going to go much higher.  Now I think all the bad news is factored into the price and any good news story - directly related or not - will drive the price higher.  Just look at there reserves/output/industry/managment.  A bargain in the 60s and only now in the mid to high 80s could you say it was getting close to fair value.  Even if the Government manages to introduce the super tax - it's got to be worth it.  And if they water it down at all like everyone is hoping/expecting then I think you'll see another jump in price.

malachii

PS - I've been buying large chunks of ESG so I am extremely biased yet again!!


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## pointr (9 July 2010)

So with the current mootings of Santos possibly selling a portion of its Gladstone LNG project to Shell ( as reported by Bloombergs quoting AFR also referred to by media quoting Macquarie a few days ago) what does this potentially mean for little ESG quietly drilling holes in the ground? Has the time interval where STO would have had to pay extra to Hillgrove passed? Would a cash injection from Shell free STO to make an offer for ESG? Does AGK's interest in a gas storage facility via their MOS offer mean that they would like to secure more reserves for their long term east coast business. Would AGK have an interest in ESG. Or am I an ESG holder clutching at straws


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## Gunsmoke (9 July 2010)

I found this and have been told other VERY good things about ESG:

It has been a very long wait but the esg rocket is about to take off for the following reasons.
1.esg is not doing much drilling these days as it has more gas than it can handle.
2.wilga park is at full capacity.More capacity arrives in a couple of months.
3.Rbsmorgans have placed esg on it's high conviction list.(they believe esg will be taken over before 6 months).nik burns their gas analyst is very close to esg.
4.santos and bg have not got enough gas.
5.tax position is now sorted out.
6.reserve upgrade cannot be far away.
7.the last 2 months have allowed esg more time to do some more deals.I am expecting a number of new deals to be announced over the next month.


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## dandyjac (10 July 2010)

Gunsmoke said:


> I found this and have been told other VERY good things about ESG:
> 
> It has been a very long wait but the esg rocket is about to take off for the following reasons.
> 1.esg is not doing much drilling these days as it has more gas than it can handle.
> ...






Thanks for the info, I hope we get a good price for our shares when it happens ............................


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## Gunsmoke (11 July 2010)

What sort of money have you ESG fan invested? My mate put in $100K. I can't sleep with that much exposure, so I'm about a third of his.


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## malachii (12 July 2010)

Welcome Gunsmoke - as you can see there are many of us on here that are believers in ESG.  However just make sure you dont get caught in the hype.  We have seen many claims in regards to this stock and this sector - claims that the share will never be seen at current prices again, that it is racing away and will never be as cheap as last week.  It is still just a stock that is caught up in the rest of the emotions of the current market.

Just some comments on the points you make:

1.esg is not doing much drilling these days as it has more gas than it can handle.  

  ESG is drilling and is planning on drilling as much as ever as far as I can tell in its announcements and in the reports (see the recent presentation to the Credit Suisse London Oil and Gas conference)

2.wilga park is at full capacity.More capacity arrives in a couple of months.  

This is being ramped up as we speak.

3.Rbsmorgans have placed esg on it's high conviction list.(they believe esg will be taken over before 6 months).nik burns their gas analyst is very close to esg.

I know nothing about this but like anything - it's not a takeover until it becomes a takeover!  This sector has seem major rationalisation over the last couple of years - it wouldn't suprise me but there again - I wouldn't invest for this reason alone.

4.santos and bg have not got enough gas.

Good report in the weekend AFR about this.  BG have more than enough gas for their first 2 trains and even the guy writing the article could not come up with any reason why BG would merge/takeover anyone currently.  They have reserves/capacity/contracts coming out of their ears!

Santos are a different kettle of fish - although it seems that they need to sort out production concerns before they look at more reserves.

5.tax position is now sorted out.  

Think you're refering to the RSPT.  They copped a bad deal out of the initial announcement and the market pretty quickly realised this was going to change so the price bounced.  Haven't seen much in regards to the new announcement.  Not even sure they have got around to specifics on CSG but I might be wrong on this one.

6.reserve upgrade cannot be far away.

Like most exploration companies - they try to make upgrade time never too far away!!

7.the last 2 months have allowed esg more time to do some more deals.I am expecting a number of new deals to be announced over the next month.

Could be - who knows???


This is a good company with good reserves in a good sector with good managment.  As a long term hold I dont think you can go wrong (subject to all the usual insanities on the stock market and with mining companies!!).  In the shorter term it wouldn't surprise me to see this dip back into the 70s as there is no real news expected for a little while and the overall market is very volatile.  However a takeover anywhere in this sector could throw all these assumptions straight out the window!

malachii

PS I own shares in ESG so my opinions is very biased!!!!!


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## Logique (12 July 2010)

One of my favourite stocks, it's been on my watchlist forever. I've traded in and out over the time.
My strategy is to buy on weakness, but ESG has had an alarming tendency to pulse up, and then either ease off or go dormant for a while. But I think it's beautifully positioned in the csg industry, which got a special deal on the MRRT. 
So long as it's share price erraticism suits your trading strategy, it's a great long term stock, and Malachii's and Gunsmoke's comments are worth reading.


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## Gunsmoke (13 July 2010)

If ESG reaches 90c by mid week, STO will move immediately to prevent having to pay too much. The Octopus told me this!! 
The only thing stopping them will be available funds.
ESG will want more then the usual 40% premium before they sell. I'm hoping for over $3. What do you guys think would be a fair price?


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## malachii (13 July 2010)

Hi Gunsmoke,

Can you expand on your $3.  Is this just an arbitary figure or is it based on $ per TJ or something else?

malachii


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## Gunsmoke (13 July 2010)

It's based on my massive knowledge in aussie stocks and share trading



actually just an arbitary figure that I've come up with when I kneel before God each night!! 



I haven't bought shares for about 10 years and have only bought ESG based on a friend who thinks he's on a winner. Hope he's right!!!

I have been trawling the net for info etc and I can't see how STO can't buy ESG in the sooner, rather then later.


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## Gunsmoke (13 July 2010)

JUST FOUND THIS ON HOTCOPPER:
Like the Panteen shampoo comercial. It won't happen overnight....but it will happen!!!



For the benefit of all the new investors looking at ESG, and some of the older ones who may have been getting jaded by all the shorting and downramping (yes, you SomeGUY : ) ), it might be time for an executive summary of ESG, and the trends surrounding it.

(feel free to chip in any extra info that I have missed).


ESG SPECIFICS

- ESG already have 988PJ of 2P. At average transaction metrics, and according to DC, this is worth $2.4 billion. So, over 3 times the current price. And that is based on 6 month old data.

- Since then, ESG have been production testing 3 seams for the first time ever. 

- There is an estimated 17TCF in just PEL 238.

- The flow rates ESG have already reported are incredible from ESG thinnest seam - 2MMCFD en route to a forecast 3.5MMCFD. And with ESG demonstrating they can have large spacings between laterals, it means great economics for full field development. High flows and large spacings = lots of gas for less money. This also means a much smaller footprint.

- ESG has signed two huge MOU's recently, one with ERM Power, one of the biggest privately owned companies in Australia (who are looking to list publicly), the other with the massive Japanese consortium of Hitachi-Toyo to examine a scalable LNG plant in Newcastle. Hitachi also allude to the fact that there are deals in the wings for offtakes from this project.

- ESG has a size resource that rivals QGC. So, easily big enough to support the massive deals we have seen signed with the Chinese ($50 billion).

- ESG is tightly held by management. (over 10%) Thus, they are highly motivated to get the best possible deal for shareholders.

DEMAND

- Asian demand is strong. The number of deals in the gas sector demonstrate this beyond a doubt. China, Japan, India, Malaysia etc. all need gas to underwrite their economic development. And there are competitive tensions between these Asian buyers to secure gas resources.

- There are very few countries in the world who have large gas resources that are open for investment for multi-nationals. The rise of State-Owned resource companies locks up much of the world's gas. Only Australia, the US and Canada have large and open markets for gas investment. So this is where the majors are going shopping.

- That Australia's CSG is in demand by multi-nats is evident in the $30 billion worth of investment (so far) in QLD. Shell, BG, ConocoPhillips, Petronas... a who's who of international players buying into CSG. This is the sector ESG is in.

- NSW electricity to be privatised, meaning new power plants to be built. These will be gas-fired. The market is suddenly going to expand in size.

- No new coal-fired plants will be built in this country. NSW planning to introduce a ban on new coal-fired. ESG has the dominant gas reserve in the biggest state. Geographically central. Strategically valuable.

- Carbon emissions will have to drop. So, one way or the other, a price of carbon is coming. Gas will benefit. It is 'carbon-light', and will take the bulk of the base-load that renewals cannot in the short-medium term.

- The LNG projects in QLD will cause the price of domestic gas to rise - parity pricing. This is a huge benefit to all gas producers, exporters or not. Santos and Origin know this, as does AGL and TRU. You need to control the resource from source, or else be a price-taker.

- NONE of the LNG projects in QLD have the requisite gas to meet their size ambitions. And if and when there is to be consolidation between these companies, they all want to be the larger and more dominant player in an mergers or JVs. As such, there is considerable competitive tension for each of them to secure the unallocated gas resource, and get to the scales of economy to maximise their project returns.

SANTOS

- Missed out on QGC in a bidding war, who later signs a $50 billion offtake deal with the Chinese. Darn.

- Santos buys into ESG and PEL 238 subsquent to this. PEL 238 gives them gas rights, the ESG gives them nothing except a stepping stone to attempt a full acquisition.

- Santos have already shown a willingness to pay $1.00 per share for ESG based on much lower 2P reserves.

- Santos holding in PEL 238 gives them strong synergies with their other Gunnedah holdings (which are some way back in the development cycle).

- Santos is making the Gunnedah basin a major focus, with a new regional office set up there in the last 9 months.

- Santos say ESG's resource is one that they will "die fighting for".

- In 12 months since becoming ESG shareholders, there have been no commercial deals of any sort done with ESG, or with PEL 238 - so where is the commercial benefit that Santos have achieved? Not only that, ESG have been signing deals with third parties independently, not as as JV with Santos in PEL 238. 

- Santos are looking to sell down an equity share in GLNG, freeing up more capital.

- Santos have $2 billion in cash, free cashflow, and a debt facility of $3 billion. They will have more gas after they sell down and equity share of GLNG.

- Santos would benefit from the supply-point flexiblity that ESG's gas could give them. As a major domestic supplier, a NSW resource would give them the ability to do 'gas-swaps'.

- Santos would benefit greatly by having sufficient 2P reserves for a second LNG train at GLNG. The capex for the first train is around $8 billion, whereas the second train would cost an extra $4 billion. So the ability to commit to a second train is highly attractive.

- Santos' 2P reserve growth has been slow in the last 12 months. In order to make an FID on a two-train project, and attract equity/offtake partners, they need to demonstrate they can deliver of 2 trains worth of 2P reserves. And, they cannot do that based on their current 2P reserves and growth curve.

SUMMARY

So, we have a commodity in strong demand in a growing region, and in a lower-carbon environment. We have gas resources hard to secure for multi-nats, and a growing domestic market for power-gen. We have ESG with a known massive and growing resource and reserve. We have a large shareholder who previously missed the prize with QGC, unable to obtain any commercial deals with ESG, and an imminent FID on their project which is short of gas. And we have consolidation likely to happen this half (with Santos' FID already delayed twice).

Meanwhile, we have ESG being very quiet publicly but clearly doing deals in the background. And ESG share price being shorted in the last 9 months - who would short a known takeover target..?

And, we know that the vast majority of companies with massive resources tend to go up the food chain, as the big resources get together with big capital. And this process of course means strong share price gains for the companies who go up the food chain.


No conspiracy theories here. Just research, business fundamentals and common sense. 

I will leave you all to work out what is like to happen next...


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## Gunsmoke (13 July 2010)

and this..........


James Gerrish from Novus Capital just mentioned ESG as being a possible takeover target for Santos on the business channel on foxtel.

Is it just a matter of time???


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## Gunsmoke (13 July 2010)

but this too....


Resources Daily | More than $35 billion in coal seam gas projects will be delayed after Federal environment minister Peter Garrett demanded more time to study their potential environmental impacts.


WA got their approval so I would think QLD will get theirs.
More time for ESG to grow.


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## Gunsmoke (13 July 2010)

and this......


Am I correct in my research t hat a takeover cannot occur if a member of the company making the takover occupies a position on the compnay to be taken over??


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## naughtynickers (13 July 2010)

$3 for a stock that is currently mid 80's...

Well unless someone from ESG is giving unbelivable sexual pleasure to the big wigs at Santos I just can't see this price as anything remotely realistic but that's my 

Although at least things are sorted with the tax rate, I guess Santos can get it sums right...
http://www.smh.com.au/money/on-the-...estments-still-on-the-nose-20100707-zzvr.html


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## pointr (13 July 2010)

Thanks for an honest assessment of your valuation process Gunsmoke
I've held for a year or so and can see a lot of positives for this stock. One new positive which could emerge rapidly is if Federal Labors 'climate change' spruik includes putting the cutters through any further coal fired power stations. I'm a climate change skeptic, however we can certainly do without the particulate output and higher CO2 output of coalfired power when there is an alternative available within NSW


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## naughtynickers (13 July 2010)

pointr said:


> Thanks for an honest assessment of your valuation process Gunsmoke
> I've held for a year or so and can see a lot of positives for this stock. One new positive which could emerge rapidly is if Federal Labors 'climate change' spruik includes putting the cutters through any further coal fired power stations. I'm a climate change skeptic, however we can certainly do without the particulate output and higher CO2 output of coalfired power when there is an alternative available within NSW




Good point, perhaps we should ask why then dirty coal is only attracting 30% tax rate instead of 40% in CSG area. 

Climate Change and Julia dont seem to get along


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## basilio (14 July 2010)

Gee whiz Gunsmoke you don't mind punting a bit!!

ESG is a gun.  Many investors have been betting on some sort of takeover aka QGC and  PES.Check out Grace's posts for some excellent analysis of this stock and the CSG industry in general.

Now will it happen soon and will the rest of us get a decent price? One would like to think so but  after some of the creative work done by AWE in getting control of ADI for relative peanuts we can't be certain.  In ADI's case the major shareholder AWE offered a lowball figure  40c which was rightly rejected by the ADI Board. There were then large sales made at a  one cent above the the offer price. It was suggested  that the buyers  were hedge funds.

So a couple of weeks later AWE comes along with an offer of 42 cents! Their argument was that once they got control of the company they were going to change the Board and that with their substantial controlling interest no one else would be able to make a significant bid.

They got away with it too. Apparently the people who bought at 41c were happy to make the 1 cent profit.  I think this was a dangerous precedent but I am highlighting it here because big companies do not want to pay a cent more than they have to in a takeover.

(By the way if anyone else has another take on the  AWE/ADI takeover feel free to add your comment)


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## malachii (14 July 2010)

Dont get me wrong - I think ESG is a good company with good resources going somewhere...


However - if you think any company is going to pay a 250% premium on current price or 200% premium on the last price STO paid for ESG I think in the words of the great Darryl Kerrigan "Tell him he's dreaming".


I'm not a great believer in the efficient market hypothesis but big money hasn't got to be big money by being stupid either.  Some of the greatest investment minds with large funds currently think that with all the information out in the market place, the share is currently worth mid 80 cents.  While I think this company has the potential for a much higher price - without further evidence (re announcments from within the company and within the CSG sector) the price PROBABLY wont go much higher.  

Several of us here rode QGC from a 20c stock to up in the $5.  However this didn't happen overnight.  It took several years of gradual growth.  Each announcement building on the next.  2 steps forward 1 3/4 steps backwards.  ESG will be the same.  Can I see ESG getting to $3 - certainly.  Do I expect it to do this quickly (ie in the next 12 months) - NO.

But I have been wrong before!!

malachii

PS I own shares in ESG do my opinion is very biased!!


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## grace (14 July 2010)

PES was in the $2 plus range, and got taken out at $8.25 as I recall.  It took two interested parties though to conduct the bidding war......do we have that here?  Who would fight Santos for it?  NSW is just different to QLD, and that is why I have made BOW my major holding now with ESG second place.  It is easily worth $3 based on previous takeovers.  Just wait for the stock market to collapse and see what happens with those remaining csg stocks.  I think that the swooping will come when fear again takes hold.  Just my thoughts though.


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## pointr (15 July 2010)

Hi Grace, from your previous post,
_"PES was in the $2 plus range, and got taken out at $8.25 as I recall. It took two interested parties though to conduct the bidding war......do we have that here? Who would fight Santos for it?"_
Do you think there would be any interest from AGK to shore up its domestic supplies post if and when Qld LNG export starts?? I have no idea what AGK's supply position is
_Just wait for the stock market to collapse and see what happens with those remaining csg stocks._
The collapse /potential collapse you are talking about here is due to?? debt in the USA,debt in Europe, general slowdown, all of the above?? Care to expound briefly.
 regards pointr


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## Gunsmoke (16 July 2010)

from hotcopper....

H,
Sadly for the impatient, Esg have an end plan and are well on the road to achieve that, they don't feel pressured to pump the price as it allows the shorters to manipulate. They are focused on their plan and are working diligently to achieve a strong outcome with Hitachi and Toyo. There will probably be an update on performance this month, but their main focus is on ratifying the Mous with Hitachi and Toyo and achieving a sale of significant volumes to a significant Japanese customer.

Think about it, there has not been a mention of the deal since they announced the Mou's the sheer size of the resource would be a huge attraction to a major to supply gas into an energy hungry Japan. Hitachi did not make the statement someone onerously picked up about 1 million tons a year being exported into Japan with the option with the modular plant design to increase the production facility in stages. The size of the deposit would warrant a connecting pipeline into Newcastle. I suspect Chris Sadler has been very very busy. I think our focus, that has been on Santos, has not allowed us, and the market to see this, whoever keeps buying in sporadic waves does though. Esg held up remarkably well in this last rout. 

Remember David Knox words " this is a resource worth fighting over" The board of Esg know this to, they own over 12% of this company and they are fighting for it to, with another major player in the background. Sadler was not put on to oversee an easy takeover from Santos but to oversee what is in the best interests of the major shareholders in Esg who know that to throw all their eggs in one basket with Santos would cost them and the smaller investors dearly. Why do you think relations are frosty with Santos, why hasn't Santos been spruiking about their half billion dollar investment, and the results being achieved, the not to distant future will reveal why, IMHO of course, 
ALH.


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## Gunsmoke (16 July 2010)

What's that Appendix Y that was just announced?? Will that have any effect or just someone freeing up some cash to buy a new landcruiser??


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## Gunsmoke (19 July 2010)

Santos cashed up for gas projects From: The Advertiser July 19, 2010 1:10PM Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizePrintEmail Share 
Add to DiggAdd to del.icio.usAdd to FacebookAdd to KwoffAdd to MyspaceAdd to NewsvineWhat are these?SOUTH Australian oil and gas giant Santos now has access to $6 billion in funding for its Gladstone and Papua New Guinea projects. 
Santos today announced it has executed a $2 billion bilateral bank loan facility to give its balance sheet flexibility for growth plans.

"This facility provides Santos with significant additional liquidity during the scheduled construction period of GLNG and PNG LNG and delivers average maturities beyond first LNG production from the two projects," the company said.

The development shows strong support for Santos by existing and new lenders.

"The facility was self-arranged and attracted total offers of A$2.9 billion from 13 banks,'' Santos said. 
"Offers from nine banks were accepted.''

Including the new facility, Santos has $6 billion of available funding capacity, including cash and committed corporate and project debt facilities.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
Related CoverageGladstone: Santos gets environmental tick 
Santos gets environmental tick Adelaide Now, 28 May 2010
PNG gas financing complete Adelaide Now, 16 Mar 2010
Finance seals deal The Australian, 15 Mar 2010
Exxon arranges record loans for PNG gas The Australian, 16 Dec 2009
PNG has approval for gas plan Courier Mail, 8 Dec 2009
.End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.
Shares in Santos added seven cents to $13.72 by 1242 AEST.

The Gladstone project is scheduled to begin production in 2014, while the PNG project is expected to do so in late 2013 or early  2014.

The new bank loan facility will be used to refinance the producer's existing $700 million of undrawn bilateral bank facilities that mature between 2011 and 2014, and to increase liquidity.

Santos executive vice president and chief financial officer Peter Wasow said the new facility matured after first LNG is produced at these two projects.

"The weighted average term of the new facility is five years,'' he said.

With AAP


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## pointr (28 July 2010)

Anyone else read the 'Open Briefing' released via ASX announcements today? I would rate it as positive and I wonder if it was meant to be read by the NSW government as well as the market. Putting the case that ESG's Gunnedah Basin project is a huge plus for NSW including a potential LNG industry at Newcastle but there will be pipes to take the gas north if NSW's approval process was too difficult.


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## Logique (9 August 2010)

Gunsmoke said:


> If ESG reaches 90c by mid week, STO will move immediately to prevent having to pay too much. The Octopus told me this!!
> The only thing stopping them will be available funds.
> ESG will want more then the usual 40% premium before they sell. I'm hoping for over $3. What do you guys think would be a fair price?



92c as I write, so it's decision time for STO. 1.40*.92=1.28, well I suppose if given favourable market conditions it could reach 1.28 technically without takeover offers, but then technically ESG has always been a mystery. Last couple of days on increased volume, and a nice 3 month uptrend underway.


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## malachii (9 August 2010)

Institutional offer could batter the price a bit over the next week or so.  It'll be interesting to see.

malachii


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## pointr (9 August 2010)

Re "92c as I write", Commsec site still shows them in a trading halt at 91.5. A major announcement today re capital raising for 1) Newcastle Port Land 2) Field development.3) Wilga Park Power Stn expansion. Seeking $100 million from memory from the big end of town for minimum 82c share fully underwritten.


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## Logique (9 August 2010)

Edit: thanks guys, you beat me to it.

Equity raising announced today: raise A$100 mill, or representing 13.5% of issued share capital. Final issue price determined by insto's bookbuild, but underwritten floor price 0.82ps. Close 5pm today.

To acquire land at Kooragang Isl. ; fund exploration; fund development;drilling and expansion of Wilga Park.; feasibility studies for Narrabri field and LNG facility at Necastle; and pay some corporate costs.

For the retail investor will mean dilution in sp, but to the long term good of the company


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## Miner (9 August 2010)

Logique said:


> Edit: thanks guys, you beat me to it.
> 
> Equity raising announced today: raise A$100 mill, or representing 13.5% of issued share capital. Final issue price determined by insto's bookbuild, but underwritten floor price 0.82ps. Close 5pm today.
> 
> ...




At the outset I do not hold ESG any more.
But I could not digest the $100 M pill where 13.5% stakes were concerned and normal 'unsophisticated' investors were not invited to buy single cent ?

HOpe I did not report wrongly. Surely the market will react when trading halt is lifted . 

I fail to understand why companies often fail to reward existing shareholders and ordinary investors at the same time they pamper large houses.


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## grace (9 August 2010)

Miner said:


> At the outset I do not hold ESG any more.
> But I could not digest the $100 M pill where 13.5% stakes were concerned and normal 'unsophisticated' investors were not invited to buy single cent ?
> 
> HOpe I did not report wrongly. Surely the market will react when trading halt is lifted .
> ...




I often write to the board when this happens and the usual response is that they would like some more interesting parties on the share register, and that it is expensive to do a SPP.  I am not convinced though.


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## malachii (10 August 2010)

84 cents - not as bad as the 82 cent minimum but still - ouch.  We will probably see a drop into the low 80s possibly even the high 70s depending on how Europe/US play out this week.

malachii


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## Logique (10 August 2010)

84 is it? Well, can live with that, could have been worse, and the new capital will be put to good use. Personally would start to take an interest if it reaches the 70s.


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## pointr (9 September 2010)

Up 5 cents today to .905 last time I looked. I assume this is after STO's announcement regarding TOTAL joining the GLNG project and increases in that projects offtake agreements creating a need for more gas???


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## growing (2 December 2010)

And back down she goes to 74cents 

This one is a ride all the way to takeover - lol


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## malachii (3 December 2010)

Wow - this is really in an established downtrend.  Next support levels seem to be at the 69-71cent levels (used to be resistance - now hopefully support) and after that we are looking mid 60s again.  Who would have thought?

Technicals aside this is still a good fundamental stock in a sound industry.  The industry gets kicked around a bit by the enviromentalists but at the end of the day - any country's energy growth has to come from either coal (greenies wont let this happen on large scale), nuclear (greenies will have apoplexy over this) or gas (CSG) - the lessor of all the evils.  ESG has good tracts of land near major cities on the east coast and near infrastructure (both pipes and ports).  Management seem OK as well - so think long term this one is still good.

malachii


PS - Don't own any ESG at the moment but that may change.


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## pointr (20 December 2010)

No posts re ESG for a while, some upward price movement and murmuring's on other forums re possible takeover -AGAIN. Any intelligent analytical comments out there to reassure this holder?? does STO have a need of more gas now that it has taken another step re its LNG project.


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## basilio (1 March 2011)

ESG seems particularly unloved at the moment. Down to 70c.  Anyone have any ideas on why it has continued to drift down (with quite strong selling pressure) when it seems to have such valuable reserves and possibilities ?


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## awg (1 March 2011)

basilio said:


> ESG seems particularly unloved at the moment. Down to 70c.  Anyone have any ideas on why it has continued to drift down (with quite strong selling pressure) when it seems to have such valuable reserves and possibilities ?




Here my 

My reasons for selling out were:

1) long term price trend..my average buy price was 82c, sold for avg 77c, held far too long. Moved the money from worst in sector to "best"

2) Original reason to buy was TO prospect, mainly by Santos, but they are delaying, using money elswhere.

3) Unless TO happens, and they go ahead on their own, will needs big $..ie more dilutionary cap raisings.

4) No earnings

5) short-term bad publicity for csg sector in Oz.

6) Company timelines/guidance not fully up to speed imo

7) too many shorters


Sold & moved over to SSN over the last few weeks...up 80% ( even after more buys).



Having said that, I do believe there will be a takeover offer some time...but when and for how much ?...my target was $1.20-1.30.

will be keeping my eye on it.   s.o.b owes me opportunity cost

DYOR ( I have a somewhat unfortunate record of losing patience near the bottom)


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## basilio (1 March 2011)

I see your point AWG.  I left ESG the middle of last year to focus on LNC. But I also thought it would do well. Of course it still has very valuable CSG reserves but somehow "sentiment" is against it. Strange.


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## YELNATS (1 March 2011)

basilio said:


> I see your point AWG.  I left ESG the middle of last year to focus on LNC. But I also thought it would do well. Of course it still has very valuable CSG reserves but somehow "sentiment" is against it. Strange.




I have an average price of 85.6c. I vowed last time it plumbed the mid-60's I would buy more, and later kicked myself when I didn't. This time I will top-up at that value. The recent decline should make it more appetising for a takeover.


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## naughtynickers (11 March 2011)

YELNATS said:


> I have an average price of 85.6c. I vowed last time it plumbed the mid-60's I would buy more, and later kicked myself when I didn't. This time I will top-up at that value. The recent decline should make it more appetising for a takeover.




Approaching it's lowest level's in a year now, last 2 times it's reached 60 odd cents spiked with heavy buying. The heat is well and truly out of this sector - does anyone feel that as well. Day traders moved on. 
A sell of in the market could push this to attractive buy levels if one still believes in the long term success of ESG. I watch it closely.


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## pointr (11 March 2011)

naughtynickers said:


> Approaching it's lowest level's in a year now, last 2 times it's reached 60 odd cents spiked with heavy buying. The heat is well and truly out of this sector - does anyone feel that as well. Day traders moved on.




I agree with the expression of feeling about the CSG sector, principally in NSW.  The masses armed with a view from watching the film "Gaslands" are currently very vocal in this state.
Little really new has been announced by ESG to encourage its holders, the mooted Newcastle LNG project maybe a good thing, but currently the cashflow is outward and downward (as you would expect in a resources project at this stage )
There is a belief that Santos will act and buy out ESG at some point, but why would they be in a hurry while ESG's price is heading south. Why not watch and wait.
ESG has also delayed reserves upgrades several times ,for valid reasons, but they are still delays.
In one of ESG's latests releases they did mention the option they have of taking the gas north through Qld for export, this is definitely an option, it may have been expressed to put a rocket under some in the NSW approvals process.
So for sure the traders have abandoned this one for now, but there is a significant and expanding resource being developed by ESG and hopefully that will mean some dollars for its shareholders


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## malachii (13 March 2011)

I find it interesting that 12 months ago we were being berrated for even suggesting this stock might come back in the 70s (thanks kingcarmleo where ever you are).  Now it's in the 60s people are talking down this stock.  The basic fundamentals haven't changed.  It has great land with some really good reserves.  Management are pretty good and are moving ahead.  The rains/floods have slowed the exploration down a bit but that is only a short term hickup.  And with the news from Japan this weekend - surely gas fired power stations are going to become more popular than nuclear.  The fundamentals for this stock have only grown stronger.  Why are people only seeing the negative?    

malachii


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## grace (18 July 2011)

Takeover for Santos shares.  Haven't done the figures but looks like a low ball offer compared to what we were getting a few years ago for takeovers.  I still hold quite a few of these (my second largest holding).  Haven't read all of the details but I'll be back soon to analyse.....


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## laurie (20 July 2011)

grace said:


> Takeover for Santos shares.  Haven't done the figures but looks like a low ball offer compared to what we were getting a few years ago for takeovers.  I still hold quite a few of these (my second largest holding).  Haven't read all of the details but I'll be back soon to analyse.....




Another robbery being worked out to benefit directors


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## YELNATS (21 July 2011)

grace said:


> Takeover for Santos shares.  Haven't done the figures but looks like a low ball offer compared to what we were getting a few years ago for takeovers.  I still hold quite a few of these (my second largest holding).  Haven't read all of the details but I'll be back soon to analyse.....





My thoughts exactly.

Santos indicates in their announcement of the offer that the implied value of $0.90 per share represents a 51% margin above ESG's closing price of $0.595 on July 15. Sure this is arithmetically correct, but in July 2009 ESG reached a high of $1.165. I would have thought that an attractive offer should have taken this into account.

Looks like ESG is selling out too cheaply and STO is getting a bargain at ESG shareholders expense, maybe an offer closer to $1.50 would be closer to the mark.


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## growing (24 July 2011)

YELNATS said:


> My thoughts exactly.
> 
> Santos indicates in their announcement of the offer that the implied value of $0.90 per share represents a 51% margin above ESG's closing price of $0.595 on July 15. Sure this is arithmetically correct, but in July 2009 ESG reached a high of $1.165. I would have thought that an attractive offer should have taken this into account.
> 
> Looks like ESG is selling out too cheaply and STO is getting a bargain at ESG shareholders expense, maybe an offer closer to $1.50 would be closer to the mark.




This takeover price is ridiculous!!

If there are no revisions of the takeover price after the reserves upgrade then I hope everyone here will vote NO to the Scheme of Arrangement!!

The Australian's article represents investor sentiment..

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...icence-locked-in/story-e6frg9lo-1226097879982

Scroll down a bit to see the Eastern Star Gas article..

It's shame ESG's board replied with "Everyone is happy with the takeover price except for a noisy minority".

The noisy minority of retail investors have the power to vote the scheme down, lets hope everyone does it.


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## Logique (24 July 2011)

growing said:


> This takeover price is ridiculous!!  ..The Australian's article represents investor sentiment...http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...icence-locked-in/story-e6frg9lo-1226097879982 The noisy minority of retail investors have the power to vote the scheme down, lets hope everyone does it.



Get onto the LYC thread as an example of how shareholders can stand up to the company. Contact the Australian Shareholders Association. This is opportunism, and a miserable outcome for loyal ESG shareholders. Don't let them get away with it.


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## blackjack (6 October 2011)

Logique said:


> Get onto the LYC thread as an example of how shareholders can stand up to the company. Contact the Australian Shareholders Association. This is opportunism, and a miserable outcome for loyal ESG shareholders. Don't let them get away with it.




ESG has an action group and they have raised a point with ASIC about the TRU shareholders getting a guarantee of 90 cents per share when reg shareholders get crumbs or shares from a falling Santos

check out Hotcopper for more details http://******************/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=1565514&msgno=7259520#7259520

also make an online complaint to ASIC here http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.ns...ng+about+companies+or+people?openDocument#how


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