# The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread



## tech/a

On a few threads people have shown an interest in explaining and learning the basics of Elliott Wave Analysis.

*I dont profess to be an expert in E/W.* I do have a practical knowledge,but am hopeful that those above my knowledge of experise will also contribute to the community.

personally I have seen enough and have traded enough with Elliott to consider it and other styles similar to be of great advantage to the trader.
I also understand how it can appear complex and contradictory. I'm hopeful that this thread will help those with an interest in this form of analysis understand how to apply it.

To roughly gauge interest I have included a poll.It helps those involved see wether their time and effort is of interest to others.


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## nomore4s

I'm definately keen to learn more Tech. As you know I have previously asked for your help on wave counts, will be good to have a thread to post questions as they come up.


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## wavepicker

Glad to help wherever I can tech. I have doing this for almost 10yrs and still learning every day!!

Like everything, this requires work and effort if it's to be used to it's fullest potential and even then it's hard enough. If I can give any advice to anyone, it's that newbies place too much emphasis on wavecounts. That is only part of the puzzle. Of utmost importance and the key IMO is the the patterns. Knowing the type and most probable EW pattern you are dealing with can help you tremendously as to what type of pattern is most likely to follow and more importantly when.

For starters though distinguishing between impulsions, corrections. Once you have the patterns sorted the numbering routines can be made much easier.




Cheers


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## nizar

Very happy to learn and thanks tech, wave, for taking the time.


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## tech/a

Will just start with some very basics. Over time I'm sure this will be built upon by myself and others.

Elliott analysis believes price action moves in Impulsive and corrective waves.
Impulsive or bullish moves move in sets of 5 waves.
Within sets of waves right down to minute waves these 5 wave patterns occure.So there becomes 5 wave patterns within larger degree or timeframe patterns.These are generally labelled 1 through 5
At the end of a pattern will be any number of different types of corrective patterns.
But for the case of simplicity the most common and easiest to follow and trade are 3 or 5 wave corrective moves.These are labelled ABC for the 3 wave move or 1 through 5 for corrective 5 waves.The END of a 5 wave corrective move is then labelled A,B or C.

This will become clearer as time and discussion goes on.
Dont get hung up on correct counts,there are basic rules.

*Wave 1*
Must be able to subdivide into 5 waves.
If 3 waves then probably still in the corrective pattern.

*Wave 2*
Wave 2 should not exceed beginning of wave 1
3 waves down a completed zigzag.
5 waves down a wave A of a 3 wave Zigzag.

*Wave 3*
Wave 3 must have a full 5 internal waves.
Wave 3 *Cannot *be the shortest wave.

*Wave 4*
Wave 4 cannot enter the price zone of wave 1
See Wave 2 comments.

*Wave 5*
Wave 5 must have 5 internal waves.


These are the VERY basics we can build on from here.
Chart below gives some very basic idea of Waves ---its the XJO.
Software is Advanced get and the algorithm used in wave counts is not always correct this will be explained latter.

*Waves Many thanks your input will be much appreciated*.


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## nomore4s

I have only just begun to look at EW and am not currently using it in my trading due to my very raw understanding of it. To tell the truth my interest in EW was only raised maybe a month ago due to reading Nick Radges book and I haven't had alot of time to research too much about EW outside of Nicks book due to being busy with work. I know I'm only beginner and need to do alot more research & study to get a better understanding.

The main thing I'm having trouble with is identifying the count early enough to trade off of and am still experimenting with how best to use ew in my trading (maybe some of what wavepicker posted earlier applies here). What I've started doing is keeping track of a few stocks I've identified a count in and running paper trades I suppose you would call them on the waves and how best I could use them in a trade.

Have posted a chart of TAM which I found what looks to be a begining of a wave count, wave 2 maynot be complete yet as 13.5c is a 50% retracement of wave 1. I'm not sure if it can be applied to or the accuracy over this short of a time frame but......
Feel free to pick it apart or add comments.
Thanks for any feed back. (Not sure if this is what you had in mind for the thread Tech but having a few "live trades/charts" may help people?)


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## chops_a_must

Since reading Adaptive Analysis I have become curious about EW.

I'm always interested in learning new things. And I also read a lot. So... I'm wondering a couple of things... 

Firstly, is it necessary to know in depth the theory in order to apply it?

Secondly, if so, what are the best books on EW to read up on the theory/ conceptual side of it? And;

Thirdly, what is the best book for EW application?

Wave, Tech... Maggie... your thoughts would be much appreciated.

Cheers,
Chops.

P.S. Had thought about making a thread like this Tech, but did not get around to it... 'Tis much appreciated.


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## It's Snake Pliskin

Nice thread.

I believe using it on illiquid stocks is pointless.  Those trading the little illiquid stocks may want to look at other methodolgies. 

From here over to the experts unless I have something to add by way of questions.


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## theasxgorilla

Some questions for the contributors:

1. Who actually trades using Elliott Wave?

2. If you trade using EW, what proportion of your analysis involves EW? ie. is it core to your technical analysis, or is it a bolt-on extra, applied after some other trend identification method brings something to your attention?

3. What time-frame do you trade in?

4. What proportion of winners to losers do you have?

5. What is your average winning trade and average losing trade size?

6. What is your risk per trade?

7. What is the opportunity factor of your system? ie. how often does your analysis provide you with a trade?

Since a method of analysis is not a trading system per se, and in the case of EW is often only relevant for the  ´setup ´ of a trading opportunity, I think it ´s important for people contemplating EW to get the  ´reality check ´of an applied system.


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## Porper

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> 1. Who actually trades using Elliott Wave?




I don't think there are that many of us who trade using Elliot Wave.My personal view is that it doesn't work if you soley trade this one method.



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> 2. If you trade using EW, what proportion of your analysis involves EW? ie. is it core to your technical analysis, or is it a bolt-on extra, applied after some other trend identification method brings something to your attention?




The first thing I look for is a wave count, but try not to force a count on all charts.If there is no easily recognisable count, forget it, look at something else or another form of Technical analysis.

There are high and low probability counts  depending on resistance points etc.Also a potential wave 5 is a higher probability set up than the start of a wave 1 for example.It is swings and roundabouts though, trading a wave 5 won't usually have a potential profit target of a wave 3.



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> 3. What time-frame do you trade in?




I personally look for trades lasting a few weeks at most but any time frame can be used.From what I have learn't and I am no expert is that the shorter time frames tend to be the most lucrative.



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> 4. What proportion of winners to losers do you have?




I have tight stops so I only win just under 50% of the time.Seems bad on the face of it but it is all relative, ie. tight stops low win percentage, large stops higher win percentage but win/loss ratio won't be as good.



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> 5. What is your average winning trade and average losing trade size?




I am not sure this is related to using Elliot wave but more part of money management.

A losing trade should really be a fixed percentage of your total funds, so this can be whatever you want it to be.
A winning trade is not fixed because we can only set possible reversal points using Elliot Wave, waves can extend and extend.



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> 6. What is your risk per trade?




See above.



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> 7. What is the opportunity factor of your system? ie. how often does your analysis provide you with a trade?




This depends on how much effort you put in I suppose.

I only trade  the ASX stocks and out of well over 2000 stocks there are too many with potential patterns to wade through.Most people will use a scan first to filter stocks out and then have rules, eg.weekly and daily momentum must be up etc.

There are some knowledgeable traders using EW. who post here.If Nick Radge notices this thread he would one to add some real expertise.


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## wavepicker

theasxgorilla said:


> 1. Who actually trades using Elliott Wave?




I would say there are very few people who have put in the time and dedication to learn the Wave Theory and apply it properly. Most will say it doesn’t work, because they don’t get it., but usually it’s not the method that has failed them but their own mindset. It’s certainly not for everyone, but it does work me and nothing else I have looked at has come close. ( and I have looked at much)
It definitely has flaws and shortcomings, but it is predictive, and when used with other predictive concepts/methodologies one can have a very powerful combination in their arsenal.



theasxgorilla said:


> 2. If you trade using EW, what proportion of your analysis involves EW? i.e. is it core to your technical analysis, or is it a bolt-on extra, applied after some other trend identification method brings something to your attention?




The primary objective of any trader should be to be able to trade from a bar chart and volume first, such as recognizing the pattern of the trend(read the market, what IS the market currently doing?-not what I am hoping or expecting it to do. Later other concepts can be bolted on,.
 Personally It is core to my technical analysis because using EW is in essence looking at the pattern of the trend i.e. impulsive, corrective, distribution, blowoff etc
I have found using EW in isolation can be effective, however using other predictive methods(mainly time based) to add confluence and reduce alternate wave counts and resolve ambiguities




theasxgorilla said:


> 3. What time-frame do you trade in?




From 15 min charts to weekly charts depending on what instrument is being traded and timeframe.  FX markets are very liquid and minutia all the way down to 15 min charts can be apparent. The bigger pictured needs to be determined first 



theasxgorilla said:


> 4. What proportion of winners to losers do you have?




When using EW in isolation and I am in the zone and undisturbed about 60%.



theasxgorilla said:


> 5. What is your average winning trade and average losing trade size?




Same answer as porper



theasxgorilla said:


> 6. What is your risk per trade?




Same answer as porper



theasxgorilla said:


> 7. What is the opportunity factor of your system? ie. how often does your analysis provide you with a trade?




This depends on the market being traded, and how well one sees the waves.(most people don’t see them)

I would say clear cut EW patterns are there approximately 40% of the time


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## >Apocalypto<

Tech,

Thanks for starting this thread. I have developed a interest in Wave, I am totally amazed with it's complexity, one trader I speak with told me it can be a 15 year learning curve to fully understand it. WOW

Will be reading with interest to all the member contributions.


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## tech/a

ASX great questions!!



theasxgorilla said:


> Some questions for the contributors:
> 
> 1. Who actually trades using Elliott Wave?
> 
> 2. If you trade using EW, what proportion of your analysis involves EW? ie. is it core to your technical analysis, or is it a bolt-on extra, applied after some other trend identification method brings something to your attention?




As a stand alone platform I have only done a few trades---intend to do a LOT more and as we go along this will be come clearer/why. I have however for over 12 mths used Elliott as the Primary tool to tell me* WHERE I AM *in taking and in lots of cases closing a trade.This is a powerful tool in my view. Taking a bullish trade when your clearly in a corrective move is low positive outcome expectancy.
Advanced Get has basically 6 trading *STAND ALONE *recommended platforms.
(1) Getting on and trading Wave 3s both long and short.
(2) Joining a wave 3 trade long or short.
(3) Trading The end of Wave 5 long or short.

These make perfect sence to me for the best stand alone Elliott trading platforms. How you do this is shown by the Elliott people or you can design your own.



> 3. What time-frame do you trade in?



My timeframe will be shorter around 1-4 weeks. but any timeframe can be traded using Elliott.



> 4. What proportion of winners to losers do you have?



Of the 4 trades I have completed 3 from 4. From experimental trades 50% roughly but I will say that approx 25% of those that failed I didnt strictly adhere to the "Canned" rules from GET. I am in contact with people who use E/W exclusively and they report (un substantiated) 70-80% hit rate. R/R of approx 2



> 5. What is your average winning trade and average losing trade size?



Porper nailed the answer to this.I'm looking to trade about 60% profit on capital each year as a minimum. if I cant do this I'm better off just trading my longer term methodology.My personal view is to use larger position sizes (relative to risk factors) with a higher than average (50/50) win loss rate.



> 6. What is your risk per trade?



Determined by Capital and entry points. *One thing I have learned is you can and should wait for the trade to come to you---don't pre empt it* both entry and exits.



> 7. What is the opportunity factor of your system? ie. how often does your analysis provide you with a trade?




There are countless setups. However this is an important factor (universe you wish to trade).This is taking up a lot of time now and will in the near future.Rather than looking at the whole market its my intention to look only at the strongest,in otherwords I am setting up folders with stocks that I will select by OTHER methods to include in my trading universes and run the analysis on those.



> Since a method of analysis is not a trading system per se, and in the case of EW is often only relevant for the ´setup´ of a trading opportunity, I think it´s important for people contemplating EW to get the ´reality check´of an applied system.




*This is not so *it is can be and should be in many cases used as a complete trading methodology. I dont intend to explain those methodologies presented by GET but happy to run a few as a demo. You'd need the software to understand and apply fully. I have invested the $$s and the time others may not think this is for them. Sure you can design and develope a trading method or methods traded PURELY with Elliott.
Radge does and if you join his Chartist you can learn his methodology. He runs a number of portfolios with daily updates,he doesnt use Get and or their Canned methods (that I'm aware of).

*Trade it.*
15 yrs you'd be a slow learner---but agree with waves---some will never get it.


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## wavepicker

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Nice thread.
> 
> I believe using it on illiquid stocks is pointless.  Those trading the little illiquid stocks may want to look at other methodolgies.
> 
> From here over to the experts unless I have something to add by way of questions.




Snake you are dead right about EW and illiquid stocks.  EW is a representation of mass social mood.  Therefore where the crowds  emotions are best represented is in very liquid markets.  I rarely trade stocks using EW alone, in fact I rarely trade stocks. There is way too much white noise in individual illiquid stocks

The best representations of EW therefore are seen in the following:

-Indexes
-Currencies
-Commodities

etc

Sure there are setups in the more liquid stocks, if fact there can be many setups and opportunities, but more often than not you will be hard pressed to find them and you will really have to know what your doing.  There can be too much ambiguities and subjections if this is done using EW in isolation and one really needs to use other methods to quantify the price action. If you are trying to force a count on a stock that simply isn’t there then you are asking for trouble IMO, it has to rally stand out and have the right proportions, otherwise move on and find something else that does 

Cheers


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## tech/a

Waves.

Very important points.
I agree with your list but would add Liquid Stocks.


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## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> Since reading Adaptive Analysis I have become curious about EW.
> 
> I'm always interested in learning new things. And I also read a lot. So... I'm wondering a couple of things...
> 
> Firstly, is it necessary to know in depth the theory in order to apply it?
> 
> Secondly, if so, what are the best books on EW to read up on the theory/ conceptual side of it? And;
> 
> Thirdly, what is the best book for EW application?
> 
> Wave, Tech... Maggie... your thoughts would be much appreciated.
> 
> Cheers,
> Chops.
> 
> P.S. Had thought about making a thread like this Tech, but did not get around to it... 'Tis much appreciated.





1: Certainly NOT, one can just look for very basic 12345 Impulsions and abc Corrections and most do. But learning the theory more in depth can increase your analysis skills and you maybe able to see more pportunities/probabilities in which to take a trade. Like anything it really depends what you want from it

2: The best  book I have come across and the original is Elliott Wave Principle Key to Market Behaviour by Frost and Prechter. That is a starting point and a great orientation regarding EW analysis. For application(and this really depends on your trading style and objectives)  I like a book by Steven W Poser called Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably.  There are many, many books out there however.

There is something I must mention here, there are multiple schools of Elliott:

The 2 most that are well known are:-

-The Prechter Style which is an extension form the original works of RN Elliott
This is what most Elliotticians follow

-The Neely School.  This is a completely different approach developed by Glen Neely. He has written a book called “Mastering Elliott Wave” teaching it.  This approach has concepts that all but remove any subjectivists/ambiguities from the Prechter approach. It is truly the most objective form of EW Analysis. However it is very, very difficult to master it, many more rules and guidelines compared to the traditional approach but much more accurate if done correctly. I believe Glenn Neely is doing some free seminars in all the capital cities soon. I don’t know anyone who has mastered this approach in this country. Zoran Gayer(from Adelaide) was the best but he passed away a few years ago.

3. Re: Books on application: There are many out there, look for the EWI library they have some good ones. Another good one is Dynamic Trading by Robert Miner but I find it more tailored around his software but it can also be used in isolation

  I have a some good info  which briefly explains it what you are after . It’s very good. Send me a PM and I will arrange to send it to you


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## Kauri

wavepicker said:


> Hi kauri,
> 
> Your charts are generated by Dynamic Trader is that correct?? What version are you using and how do you rate rate Dynamic Trader in terms of Elliott Wave Analysis and all the other routines available on Dynamic trader?
> 
> Cheers



*DT software...EOD version...*
 As far as E/W analysis goes strictly speaking it has none, unlike Get it does not attempt to place counts-waves.. it is a whiteboard where you manually do your own counts and place the zig zag.. then instead of using labourious manual Fib exp/rets. the software can at the click of a button place likely Fib based EOW zones either as coloured boxes or labelled lines... the Fib No's used are user selectable. I pesonally don't use the search/scan function but it is there and finds 1 or 2 bar based trend reversal/continuation patterns.
 With the EOD version it is possible to show intraday data... I have MetaTrader4 (Free app.) running, using an added in expert advisor which continuosly writes their free data for FX pairs, Gold, Indexes to my hard disk. Using the ASCI app in DT this data is read and updated at 1 min intervals into DT EOD, which suits me as I don't trade at less than 1 Hr intervals. All at a cost of about 1/3 the price of Get.


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## wavepicker

Kauri said:


> *DT software...EOD version...*
> As far as E/W analysis goes strictly speaking it has none, unlike Get it does not attempt to place counts-waves.. it is a whiteboard where you manually do your own counts and place the zig zag.. then instead of using labourious manual Fib exp/rets. the software can at the click of a button place likely Fib based EOW zones either as coloured boxes or labelled lines... the Fib No's used are user selectable. I pesonally don't use the search/scan function but it is there and finds 1 or 2 bar based trend reversal/continuation patterns.
> With the EOD version it is possible to show intraday data... I have MetaTrader4 (Free app.) running, using an added in expert advisor which continuosly writes their free data for FX pairs, Gold, Indexes to my hard disk. Using the ASCI app in DT this data is read and updated at 1 min intervals into DT EOD, which suits me as I don't trade at less than 1 Hr intervals. All at a cost of about 1/3 the price of Get.




Thanks for that Kauri appreciate it.  Do you use any of the built in time projection routines(in DT)  with your EW analysis such as Fib time extensions etc?? If so do you find them useful.? I assume you are using DT4 EOD.

Cheers


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## Kauri

wavepicker said:


> Thanks for that Kauri appreciate it. Do you use any of the built in time projection routines(in DT) with your EW analysis such as Fib time extensions etc?? If so do you find them useful.? I assume you are using DT4 EOD.
> 
> Cheers



 Waves..
 Still using EOD4...although 5 is available. When I am happy that I can drive 4 ok I will update to 5...probably 4-6 weeks time.. sorry (4x1.618=6.47).. 4-6.47 weeks   
 Tried out the time component but in my experience on the top end of the ASX equities it seems to have little relevance.. I find that using waves alongside the shape,range and volume characteristics of the price bars suits my trading style. Haven't done much in the way of time projections with FX etc.. will look at that soon but will probably not incorporate it.. not saying it doesn't work, it obviously does for many people,..just that it doesn't tie in with my trading style.


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## Porper

wavepicker said:


> Thanks for that Kauri appreciate it.  Do you use any of the built in time projection routines(in DT)  with your EW analysis such as Fib time extensions etc?? If so do you find them useful.? I assume you are using DT4 EOD.
> 
> Cheers




Just to add to what kauri has said regards Dynamic Trader.

I bought DT 5 a couple of weeks ago so I am still learning the basics of it, but I do use the time cycle ratios a lot which I find very helpful with finding potential turning points and end of waves.It can do static counts which I wouldn't use, but it will measure between two points in time and project from any point on the chart using fib ratios.

Theory is the more projections made measuring past swings that project to the same or similar date, the more chance of a reversal happening.

As Kauri said you make your own E.W counts although it will add various lines/swing points to a chart which more or less mirror the E.W count anyway.

I use the scans as well, very good for filtering stocks, getting rid of a lot of the no hopers.


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## wavepicker

Thanks to both of you for your thoughts.  

Not particularly interested in Wave counts(as like you both I do my own) , but Fib Time expansions and other time add -ons available for DT5, and seeing if anyone currently using them and integrating these within their analysis. Especially with regard to use with calendar day time axis if that is available in DT5.

Cheers


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## Porper

wavepicker said:


> Thanks to both of you for your thoughts.
> 
> Not particularly interested in Wave counts(as like you both I do my own) , but Fib Time expansions and other time add -ons available for DT5, and seeing if anyone currently using them and integrating these within their analysis. Especially with regard to use with calendar day time axis if that is available in DT5.
> 
> Cheers




I haven't had time to look into the calendar day counts although I know it does have this function.Calendar days or trading days, but calendar day counts are supposed to be the more accurate for time projections.

I think using this with the time cycle ratios and alternate time projections is the way to go.This is my intention when I have time to learn the ins and outs of the software.

Have a look at the DT web page.There are videos by Miner explaining in detail what functions are available.He is very "time frame" orientated.


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## It's Snake Pliskin

wavepicker said:


> Snake you are dead right about EW and illiquid stocks.  EW is a representation of mass social mood.  Therefore where the crowds  emotions are best represented is in very liquid markets.  I rarely trade stocks using EW alone, in fact I rarely trade stocks. There is way too much white noise in individual illiquid stocks
> 
> The best representations of EW therefore are seen in the following:
> 
> -Indexes
> -Currencies
> -Commodities
> 
> etc
> 
> Sure there are setups in the more liquid stocks, if fact there can be many setups and opportunities, but more often than not you will be hard pressed to find them and you will really have to know what your doing.  There can be too much ambiguities and subjections if this is done using EW in isolation and one really needs to use other methods to quantify the price action. If you are trying to force a count on a stock that simply isn’t there then you are asking for trouble IMO, it has to rally stand out and have the right proportions, otherwise move on and find something else that does
> 
> Cheers




Wave,

Thanks for the input to the thread.
I often question myself wether EW is of any use on the ASX, simply because of the size of the market. The reason I explored its use was for forex with its huge liquidity. 

Using a strategy that requires liquidity narrows the opportunity that may be found in the ASX. Is this worth pursuing if one only trades the smaller lighter markets? This may cause some anguish with some but it is worth serious research I feel.

I see you have an interest in those calendar projections. I will be happy in due course to talk about them - not yet though. 

Snake


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## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> 1: Certainly NOT, one can just look for very basic 12345 Impulsions and abc Corrections and most do. But learning the theory more in depth can increase your analysis skills and you maybe able to see more pportunities/probabilities in which to take a trade. Like anything it really depends what you want from it
> 
> 2: The best  book I have come across and the original is Elliott Wave Principle Key to Market Behaviour by Frost and Prechter. That is a starting point and a great orientation regarding EW analysis. For application(and this really depends on your trading style and objectives)  I like a book by Steven W Poser called Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably.  There are many, many books out there however.
> 
> There is something I must mention here, there are multiple schools of Elliott:
> 
> The 2 most that are well known are:-
> 
> -The Prechter Style which is an extension form the original works of RN Elliott
> This is what most Elliotticians follow
> 
> -The Neely School.  This is a completely different approach developed by Glen Neely. He has written a book called “Mastering Elliott Wave” teaching it.  This approach has concepts that all but remove any subjectivists/ambiguities from the Prechter approach. It is truly the most objective form of EW Analysis. However it is very, very difficult to master it, many more rules and guidelines compared to the traditional approach but much more accurate if done correctly. I believe Glenn Neely is doing some free seminars in all the capital cities soon. I don’t know anyone who has mastered this approach in this country. Zoran Gayer(from Adelaide) was the best but he passed away a few years ago.
> 
> 3. Re: Books on application: There are many out there, look for the EWI library they have some good ones. Another good one is Dynamic Trading by Robert Miner but I find it more tailored around his software but it can also be used in isolation
> 
> I have a some good info  which briefly explains it what you are after . It’s very good. Send me a PM and I will arrange to send it to you




Thankyou very much for the time spent in your reply. It is much appreciated.

Cheers,
Chops.


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## theasxgorilla

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Wave,
> 
> Thanks for the input to the thread.
> I often question myself wether EW is of any use on the ASX, simply because of the size of the market. The reason I explored its use was for forex with its huge liquidity.
> 
> Using a strategy that requires liquidity narrows the opportunity that may be found in the ASX. Is this worth pursuing if one only trades the smaller lighter markets? This may cause some anguish with some but it is worth serious research I feel.




The viability of EW and the ongoing validity of any wave count seems to me to depend upon the magnitude of the activity of the market participants remaining somewhat comparable.  That is to say that the greater the probability of a small number of partipants moving the market with enough force to take it well outside the bounds of even extreme volatility ie. a large multiple of the ATR (3+???), then greater will be the probability that a chart with perfectly countable waves could become undiscernible.

In this way it's not actually the liquidity of the market that is the threat to EW being viable, but rather the probability of a small number of participants skewing the mean-sentiment (chart patterns) of other participants and creating _beyond_ extreme (price-relative-to-time) activity.

And it is not only the activity of a small number of forceful participants that can affect the viability of EW for a given market.  Consider a global catastrophic event.  eg. aliens invade, or something.  Presuming the market was still operating, a subsequent run on the market by the multitude of participants could generate such extreme (price-relative-to-time) activity that wave counts would likely go out the window.  Aliens invading might seem a little facetious...but what if you were trading markets in a country with an overly powerful government, or a dictator?  Where the decisions of few can skew the mean-sentiment of the many wave counting is at risk.

Some will argue that all of this extreme activity is part of the actual wave counts, if only we zoom out to a count of high enough degree...but this suggests that Elliott Wave can predict things that haven't yet happened.  Anyone who attempts to convince others of this are full of the proverbial.  To quote Prechter and Frost...

*"the most efficient form of punctuated progress is 5-3, and nature typically follows the most efficient path"*.  Notice that they said "typically", not always.  Practical application of Elliott Wave is attempting to observe and sort out how human beings "typically" progress and regress a market.  It does not and cannot predict.

Practical applications for trading EW with small cap securities in consideration of the above mumbo jumbo...

1. Use line charts based on close.  Extremeties of large intraday price moves that formed 'tail' patterns and broke an EW rule might not appear.  Your wave count could remain valid despite a single atypical event.

It's important to note however, that 'tail' patterns can have their own bullish/bearish meaning, so don't stop looking at bar/candlestick charts!

2. Realise that even when an EW count is so clear that it virtually jumps off the screen at you, there can always be an unknowable threat to any open postion.  Manage risk.

3. A good wave counter may get their count correct on 80% of occasions but still win less than 50% of trades.  Position size.

This is what I do.  You don't have to do the same...it's just how I rationalise EW and incorporate it into my trading.

The ASX Gorilla.


----------



## Nick Radge

_Personally _I can't justify price/calendar cycles or sentiment indicators. Appreciate others can put it to good use, but I can't. How can one measure real sentiment anyway?

I have now incorporated seasonality into my analysis which I have been researching for 2-years. Seasonality is based on market forces that do in fact really exist, such as dividends, AGM's, tax periods etc.  The seasonality is collected from the price history of the instrument across numerous timeframes, then overlaid on current activity. If the timeframes match then we have a high confidence of seasonality. If they diverge, we ignore it. Applied alongside EW or other patterns I beleive will add value to the bottom line. I don't know of anyone else doing this.

You can clearly see its validity in the chart below. Green means seasonal strength is due. Take note that it was due on 17 April and sure enough we were also expecting a wave-v to start higher. From 12 May we expected seasonal sideways activity which in this case coincided with the larger degree wave-(iv). Strength was due again on May 22...yesterday we broke higher into the wave-(v).  We also know that weakness is due at or around June 10. Chances are that the current wave-(v) will terminate sometime near that date.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Nick Radge said:


> _Personally _I can't justify price/calendar cycles or sentiment indicators. Appreciate others can put it to good use, but I can't. How can one measure real sentiment anyway?
> 
> I have now incorporated seasonality into my analysis which I have been researching for 2-years. Seasonality is based on market forces that do in fact really exist, such as dividends, AGM's, tax periods etc.  The seasonality is collected from the price history of the instrument across numerous timeframes, then overlaid on current activity. If the timeframes match then we have a high confidence of seasonality. If they diverge, we ignore it. Applied alongside EW or other patterns I beleive will add value to the bottom line. I don't know of anyone else doing this.
> 
> You can clearly see its validity in the chart below. Green means seasonal strength is due. Take note that it was due on 17 April and sure enough we were also expecting a wave-v to start higher. From 12 May we expected seasonal sideways activity which in this case coincided with the larger degree wave-(iv). Strength was due again on May 22...yesterday we broke higher into the wave-(v).  We also know that weakness is due at or around June 10. Chances are that the current wave-(v) will terminate sometime near that date.




Nick,
That is interesting. Statistical TA EW. 
I shall construct some questions for you in the near future.


----------



## tech/a

Just a few comments relative to those comments/observations made by others so far in the thread.

Waves has made some very important points.Re trying to devise a count when the count isnt clear.I certainly agree and its something Nick pointed out sometime ago to myself.Corrective waves can be complex at times and getting yourself in knots trying to find a count is just counter productive when applying Elliott analysis to a trade. Just wait till its clearer or find another trade.

Waves also points out that clearer patterns appear in Commodities/Indexes etc,and when following only a few charts it doesnt take long to become attuned to the phsycology of those trading it. Once labelled manually the up keep of a few charts is definately easier than running say 100.

But on the topic of trading stocks.

There are only 6 setups I am currently looking at to trade and there are in the Liquid stocks (ASX300) plenty that are clear enough to follow.
Diverging for a minute AGET searches for these setups but I must agree with Waves/Radge and some others that the counts from GET are often "Fitted" due to the Mathamatical algorithm used to label the charts in the software.

Certainly there are times when a physical count will match but often with the counts for the lower/shorter timeframes they are clearly "best"fit". This in itself can create frustration with users as the counts alter as more price action and the patterns formed make counts clearer.Having even a basic knowledge can weed out those which are not "typical". I dont waste time guessing --if its not like crystal then I move on.

An important observation again which Waves makes mention is that those drawn to Elliott and for me VSA (Volume spread analysis) is that these types of analysis are infact analysing *Crowd behaviour*.The bigger the crowd the more uniformed that sample set of constituents will react to market price action.

Perhaps to make it clearer.

If a crowd of 50000 were to be analysed for their reaction to fear and greed there will be more in the middle of the Bell curve than there would be for a crowd of 200.Making it easier and more unifirm to analyse.
This is certainly bourne out when Elliott of like analysis is applied to thinly traded instruments.

I personally think that *choice of universe *or constituents of universe will and does have a large bearing on better application of these methodlogies.

While these methods can be traded alone again as has been pointed out consistent and most profitable trading is found when combining other analysis techniques with the base technique.
As I have mentioned above--one thing I have learnt on BOTH entry and exit is to allow the Price action to COMPLETE the setup for both entry and exit then find confirmation before taking or exiting the position from the setup analysis you do using the Base analysis---Elliott or similar.(Let the price action come to you) *This can have a large imact on the profitability of a trade. IE getting in and out at as close as possible to the best entry and best exit extremes.* Minimising Stop placement and decreasing drawdown from best exit.

This is seen in Radges teachings if you were to follow his trades in "The Chartist" 
You'll note I make mention of Radges Chartist from time to time. I dont expect that Nick will make public that which he charges clients like myself to learn. As a happy client I suggest that if *your seriously interested *in following and having access to a proven trader who uses Elliott as his Base analysis (certainly in the Chartist portfolios) that you invest the $$s and join.

After all its around the cost of a decient trades profit.


----------



## chops_a_must

I wouldn't have looked at doing a count on this, except for an obvious (so far) W4 set up and the line ups on the fib levels. I wouldn't mind any criticism given this is my first attempt at a count online. But I'm having trouble clarifying the possible outcomes of a wave 5. Is the W5 the length of the W1 on top of the peak of W3. Or is it the length of W1 from where it breaks out from the W4 bottom? Or is it the 1.618 of W3, or 1.618 of W1 from the W4 breakout? As you can see I'm pretty confused about W5's lol!

So for now, I've put the possible W5 between 59 and 64c. If this does turn out to be confirmed as a W4, then I will look to trade based on the projections from the fib levels. The stock is VRE.

Cheers in advance,
Chops.


----------



## CanOz

I thought last nite i should have a look at the SSE as i hadn't for quite a while. Thefirst thing that struck me was that there appeared to be an E-wave pattern. Anyway i thought i would post it for the more experienced to disect.

Cheers,


----------



## ricky

Guys I have found that trading EW using MTPredictor which I fine to be one of the best EW software I have used and I have had a look at plenty.I'm found that at of all my trades I have been correct about 30-40% of trades yes initially it looks like it's pretty bad odds, but like with all of trading if you manage you risk and your keep your risk/reward to >2 you can still make money at these odds.

PS don't try and apply a count if its not there......find another stock which you can, you will soon see the stocks that are trading in a nice symetrical wave.....just manage your risk!!!!!
Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Kennas,

Here is the EW thread.


----------



## Sean K

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Kennas,
> 
> Here is the EW thread.



Thanks Snake. 

Marketwaves, 

You need to decide where your EW analysis goes, but it shouldn't be in the last t/a trade thread, when you don't post a trade. Perhaps if you post your trades with the charts that would work??

I think it's all good in that thread you created for yourself actually....

Cheers!! kennas


----------



## MARKETWAVES

Hi  there Kennas

   I'm  glad  you created  this  thread - and  I will  concentrate  my efforts  here , ...................
-I just don't understand why in 1  year why Wavepicker  has  not started  a thread  of  his own 
 in  here in this forum .  A  year  is  a  long  time .....
*----------------------------------------------------------------------  
 Wave picker  does  his  best work  with hand drawn charts
which would  be  a  great learning experience  for  many .
-----------------------------------------------------------------------*
 instead, I see that Wavepicker   is  using  computer  software  by Advanced Get
 which down plays  Wavepicker's  true  ability of  observing Chartpatterns ........


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Special Note : *

*Nelson  Elliott * wrote about  his own  work 
Nelson Elliott  published  papers  written  by his  own  hand !

-------------------------------------------------------- 
*W.D. Gann*  also  published  many books  and  gave  seminars here  in New York

------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Why  don't  traders  seek  out  the work  written and published by Mr. Nelson Elliott himself  ?.............

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mr. Pretcher  and Mr. Frost have  seen  these  works -
 Why  wouldn't  you want  to  see  them  yourself ?

  I'm  basically  saying  if you are  reading anything  about Elliott Waves 
  it  should  be  authored  by Nelson  Elliott  and  no  one  else !

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
I*t was Mr. Nelson  Elliott  that created this trading method 
*
- So doesn't it make sense to  read  his  work  directly ?.....


----------



## wavepicker

MARKETWAVES said:


> instead, I see that Wavepicker   is  using  computer  software  by Advanced Get
> which down plays  Wavepicker's  true  ability of  observing Chartpatterns ........




Once again I repeat Market Waves, Advanced Get I use only as a whiteboard and marker, like I do with some other platforms.

My wave counts are NOT generated by Advanced Get, they are created by the best computer around, the one that's between every person's ears.  Almost everything I post regarding EW and other TA methods to quantify EW waves is my own work and nobody or anthying elses. If there is anything you would like to exchange ideas on (wavecount) please let me know.

Cheers


----------



## MARKETWAVES

wavepicker said:


> Once again I repeat Market Waves, Advanced Get I use only as a whiteboard and marker, like I do with some other platforms.
> 
> My wave counts are NOT generated by Advanced Get, they are created by the best computer around, the one that's between every person's ears.  Almost everything I post regarding EW and other TA methods to quantify EW waves is my own work and nobody or anthying elses. If there is anything you would like to exchange ideas on (wavecount) please let me know.
> 
> Cheers



 Let's use  this  thread  to posts  Chart Ideas if  its  ok with you  -
 this  thread  just opened a few hours ago , and  50  people  have  filled out the poll 
 just above wanting  to learn  more about  Elliott Waves Formations
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   I haven't  seen  any thread in this forum with that kind  of  interest in such a short period of time , have you ?
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


----------



## tech/a

> I haven't seen any thread in this forum with that kind of interest in such a short period of time , have you ?




Get a grip.
I started the thread and the poll around 7 mths ago.
The last thing this form of analysis needs is condesending observations of people who use it--regardless of level of knowledge.

Marketwaves by all means discuss it but can you stop being the human headline for Elliot.
Its like dealing with an evangilist!
Might be big in the States but leaves most Aussies cold.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

tech/a said:


> Get a grip.
> I started the thread and the poll around 7 mths ago.
> The last thing this form of analysis needs is condesending observations of people who use it--regardless of level of knowledge.
> 
> Marketwaves by all means discuss it but can you stop being the human headline for Elliot.
> Its like dealing with an evangilist!
> Might be big in the States but leaves most Aussies cold.




 This is  not  the  the  States  vs  Australia , there  is  no  competition here 
 People  are  people  where ever  you  are ....................
---------------------------------------------------------------------  
  I  can only  be  me ........... I would'nt  want  to  change  anyone 

 There  are  people  who  appreciate what  I  am  saying   
and 
 Im sure there  are others  who  appreciate  what  you are saying  also ........

   You  are  what  you  are ,  and  I  am  what I  am ,,,,,,

   I  understand ,  
So in an effort  to  Keep  the  Peace  I  will  not  post in here anymore .....
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
 I will  stay  clear  of  your  thread , please excuse me .....
 It  was  Kennars  that  decided move  my  posts  in  here in your thread
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 I  was  just  trying  to  follow  along  with what  he  was suggesting by posting
in here .....  I  will  also ask  Kennars  to  remove  my  posts  that  he  has  put here 

Again  please  please  excuse me ..........
I  will post elsewhere ....Thanx  alot   
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## wavepicker

MARKETWAVES said:


> Let's use  this  thread  to posts  Chart Ideas if  its  ok with you  -
> this  thread  just opened a few hours ago , and  50  people  have  filled out the poll
> just above wanting  to learn  more about  Elliott Waves Formations
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> I haven't  seen  any thread in this forum with that kind  of  interest in such a short period of time , have you ?
> ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////





Speaking of forums MW, what happened to your blog/forum on EW?? Is it still active?


----------



## wayneL

Guys,

Lets stick to EW analysis in this thread, rather than personality clashes.

Thanks


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

tech/a said:


> Marketwaves by all means discuss it but can you stop being the human headline for Elliot.
> Its like dealing with an evangilist!
> Might be big in the States but leaves most Aussies cold.




I like what Market waves has to say. I trust he won't be chased away.

Market waves how long have you used EW and what inspired you to start using it?


----------



## DTM

MARKETWAVES said:


> This is  not  the  the  States  vs  Australia , there  is  no  competition here
> People  are  people  where ever  you  are ....................
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
> I  can only  be  me ........... I would'nt  want  to  change  anyone
> 
> There  are  people  who  appreciate what  I  am  saying
> and
> Im sure there  are others  who  appreciate  what  you are saying  also ........
> 
> You  are  what  you  are ,  and  I  am  what I  am ,,,,,,
> 
> I  understand ,
> So in an effort  to  Keep  the  Peace  I  will  not  post in here anymore .....
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
> I will  stay  clear  of  your  thread , please excuse me .....
> It  was  Kennars  that  decided move  my  posts  in  here in your thread
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------
> I  was  just  trying  to  follow  along  with what  he  was suggesting by posting
> in here .....  I  will  also ask  Kennars  to  remove  my  posts  that  he  has  put here
> 
> Again  please  please  excuse me ..........
> I  will post elsewhere ....Thanx  alot
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------




C'mon Market,

you've only just come back and there are lot of people that appreciate your knowledge although only a few people post replies to it.

*DON'T GO DON'T GO DON'T GO*


----------



## Nick Radge

marketwaves,
Wavepicker uses the AGet charting package but I think you'll find (with 100% certainty) that the counts are manually put on by him and not the computer.


----------



## L plates

Bring this thread back to life.

I'm sure there were many who are disappointed that the thread never got off the ground.

I'll start it off again with a question, one that I just can't get my head around.
When you look at a blank chart where do you start with an impulse wave 1? Would I be correct in assuming that for most charts the beginning of wave 1 would be the lows that we reached in August? How far back do you look?

I have many questions but I'll ask them one by one in what I think is the correct order.
I hope there are others who want to see this thread start again

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

L plates said:


> Bring this thread back to life.
> 
> I'm sure there were many who are disappointed that the thread never got off the ground.
> 
> I'll start it off again with a question, one that I just can't get my head around.
> When you look at a blank chart where do you start with an impulse wave 1? Would I be correct in assuming that for most charts the beginning of wave 1 would be the lows that we reached in August? How far back do you look?
> 
> I have many questions but I'll ask them one by one in what I think is the correct order.
> I hope there are others who want to see this thread start again
> 
> Cheers



That really depends on what degree of trend you are looking at.

I tend to start at the big picture(Monthly/Weekly charts) and work my way down to the current daily charts.

Others do it the other way round, and still yet others focus on a particular section of data that they feel has the right EW patterns/proportions.

For me the pattern comes first, knowing the type of patterns we are dealing with is paramount, and I add my most probably labels around that pattern. Once you determine the most probable pattern you are dealing with, then you can come up with the most likely patterns that might follow.

I know most EW practioners would not do this, but it seems to work best for me, and I know of at least one other poster on this site who applies it successfully this way.

All the best


----------



## tech/a

> I tend to start at the big picture(Monthly/Weekly charts) and work my way down to the current daily charts.
> 
> Others do it the other way round, and still yet others focus on a particular section of data that they feel has the right EW patterns/proportions.
> 
> For me the pattern comes first, knowing the type of patterns we are dealing with is paramount, and I add my most probably labels around that pattern. Once you determine the most probable pattern you are dealing with, then you can come up with the most likely patterns that might follow.




For me a sort of combination of the above.
Of course I use other analysis to confirm.
I tend to allow price/Volume and range to confirm the pattern before taking a trade with the lowest risk I can find once confident that my interpretation of what I'm seeing has a high probability of playing out.

If the forward R/R is acceptable 2:1 or better then I'll take the trade.
I'll add that I'm trading shorter term with this approach.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I'm glad this thread has started again. Anyone care to comment on the recent and current activity of ANZ as an educational exercise,  since its August low. ANZ is a very liquid stock with some volitility. I enclose a chart.

gg


----------



## wavepicker

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm glad this thread has started again. Anyone care to comment on the recent and current activity of ANZ as an educational exercise,  since its August low. ANZ is a very liquid stock with some volitility. I enclose a chart.
> 
> gg





gave it a go Garpal,

firstly starting with my take for the longer term(monthly chart) and then working down to the daily minutia.
Looks like we had three waves down form July 16th till mid August. Then another 3 waves up till now. Same as the XAO.

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm glad this thread has started again. Anyone care to comment on the recent and current activity of ANZ as an educational exercise, since its August low. ANZ is a very liquid stock with some volitility. I enclose a chart.
> 
> gg




 Hi Garpal,
             From memory I posted my E/W take on it in the ANZ thread yesterday or posiibly the day before.
 Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Carrying on from yesterday, how do the Ellioticians approach trading in ANZ , given its retracement today.

gg


----------



## wavepicker

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Carrying on from yesterday, how do the Ellioticians approach trading in ANZ , given its retracement today.
> 
> gg





The key reversal day was yesterday, that was the day to take the trade with a stop just above the previous high of that bar of $31.61 (Just above blue wave 2 & teal wave c)
If one assumes this is the early stage of a third wave down, then it can move down various ways. We can wait for a second countertrend here to perhaps take up a bearish position, keeping the stop at $31.61. Undertanding countertrends is the key.

One should wait to see if this countertrend perhaps "leaves a space" between the last support level at $30.16(Teal wave b low) and the high of that countertrend. This is especially true if it will only be a one day countertrend, as thereafter the market will get smashed as a wave of 3 of 3 of 3 at a certain degree of trend will be in force

Hope this helps

Cheers


----------



## Nick Radge

Small gap above todays high which should (will?) get filled. Any fill and rejection is a short. Any new lows after today signals a confirmed 3-wave counter trend advance off the August lows and as Waves says, bye-bye...
_
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Lachlan6

Agree with Nick and WaveP. I actually entered ANZ today but as my stop was just below that wave a/wave (1) I decided to exit for a small loss. My bias is a little to the downside re the market, so I entered LLC as a short instead at $19.66.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Thanks L6, Nick and WaveP, I followed that and can see how you came to those conclusions.

gg


----------



## Frank D

*Trading Stocks...*


I don’t think ANZ is going down as far as some of you think. 
So many ABC formations and numbers I get so confused looking at some 
of these EW charts posted, and I spent many years with EW in the 90's. 

This is my 2 bob's worth.

Yearly and Primary Trend has defined banks stocks for years. 
Trend defined by dynamic 50% level in 2008, which is an area 
you would be looking to BUY into.


I don’t know why people would want to ‘short’ financial stocks, it makes no sense.








*Medium Term:- Chart Below * 

#1  Stock supported around the September 50% level

#2 Weekly 50% level ‘resistance ' caps price from rising.

#3 Change of cycles and ‘resistance' disappears and becomes 'support’  Forewarning resistance becomes foretelling a 'new trend’

#4  Traders can ‘pre-empt’ the break once again as it trusts out of weekly 50% level support and follows the weekly dynamic ‘path’ defined by the 3-day cycle.

#5 ‘change of cycle’ as it breaks the 3-day lows:-  Exit medium term positions. But ‘hook’ confirms the trend back inside 50% level. (consolidation trading week 5-day pattern)








*Short-term:- * 

#6 The weekly 50% level will defined the trend next week.

#7  With any rotation down towards the November 50% level


*Frank Dilernia*


----------



## Nick Radge

> So many ABC formations and numbers I get so confused looking at some




So many 50% retracements and numbers I get so confused looking at some


----------



## Frank D

Nick,

This is an Elliot Wave Thread, and there seem a few traders using this ‘mythology’ for T/A, and there are a lot of interested people that want to know more about it.

Let’s pick a stock like CBA or any stock/ index, or currency. You can pick it.

I would like 5 different EW analysts, do a long term technical Analysis on XXX, and a medium term look, and even a short-term 5-day view using EW if they have the time

Just a simple T/A view from 5-different users on EW

cheers,
Frank


----------



## Nick Radge

Its not a contest on how long yours is to mine Frank. I'm only interested in my account balance increasing. Elliott Wave allows me to achieve that goal with comfort and that, my friend, is the all that counts.


----------



## Frank D

Nick,

My view on ANZ is just a technical view nothing more or nothing less. It’s not about money, its just analysis.

I’m interested in a technical view from 5 different EW traders on the same component. 

It’s not about whether the T/A view is right or wrong, but how 5 different analyst’s use EW.

Frank


----------



## wavepicker

Nick Radge said:


> Its not a contest on how long yours is to mine Frank. I'm only interested in my account balance increasing. Elliott Wave allows me to achieve that goal with comfort and that, my friend, is the all that counts.





Very well said Nick.

It's all about what works for you, whether that be EW, Gann, or even the swing charts, whatever… There is no right or wrong way and the best measure is how much $$ lines your hip pocket at the end of the year

Every methodology has advantages and disadvantages. I personally not only use EW but also combine it with a host of other methodologies some of which is my own IP.  


Frank,

Just because you were not successful with using EW in the 2 years you spent on it, it does not mean that no one else can be. I have been looking at it for 10 years( and I was not profitable with it until after 4 years)  and I am still learning more every day. Now you may not have much of an idea what all the abc’s are all about but to this day I and most others have little idea what you are talking about with the AMT methodology. To me it resembles some sort of Swing Chart analysis.

What you are trying to demonstrate with ANZ is that 5 different EW opinions will produce 5 different wave counts. In other words EW is subjective.  

Well EW IS subjective Frank, and you will get 5 different counts. BUT most other forms of analysis is subjective as well.

As 5 different opinions of any other methodology  will most likely see 5 different answers!!

That goes for:

-Trend followers
-Fundamental analysis
-Gann Analysis
-Lagging Indicator Analysis


Just about everything


What you have to understand is that the systems/methods don’t fail, but the people using them can.  Some people can use a method and continually be profitable and others can use the same method and not.

Clearly it has very little to with methodology but the mindset of the trader which is the most important aspect.

BTW Re shorting financials, I made my best ever short trade on a financial stock in June 2002 (CBA fell from $35 to 23)

Cheers


----------



## CanOz

You know what is amazing about this forum, is that people can show thier 'edge'. An edge that works for one trader may not work for another, and more importantly you need to believe in your edge, not someone else's. 

I find Frank's edge for index's very interesting, but prefer Nick's combination of EW, VSA, and seasonality as an edge that i can learn and use. I'm not into Wave's EW and time, but thats ok, i'm still interested in it though.

My point is that it is a shame we all can't appreciate and respect the wealth of information on display here. I sure do.

Thanks Waves, Frank, and Nick for sharing your some of your edge's with us.

Cheers,


----------



## wavepicker

CanOz said:


> You know what is amazing about this forum, is that people can show thier 'edge'. An edge that works for one trader may not work for another, and more importantly you need to believe in your edge, not someone else's.
> 
> I find Frank's edge for index's very interesting, but prefer Nick's combination of EW, VSA, and seasonality as an edge that i can learn and use. I'm not into Wave's EW and time, but thats ok, i'm still interested in it though.
> 
> My point is that it is a shame we all can't appreciate and respect the wealth of information on display here. I sure do.
> 
> Thanks Waves, Frank, and Nick for sharing your some of your edge's with us.
> 
> Cheers,




No probs Can happy to do and help where I can.

Just bear in mind however, I am part time trader just like you and other posters here, expressing my musings via the EW charts. I am not here to promote any books, courses, methodology, or anything else.

Re my style of EW and Time analysis.  I generally only post EW charts on this forum to share ideas with other posters. Additionally I have helped some posters who are interested with my style of EW(which essentially is the same as Nicks VSA excluded) and actually we have become good friends with them. The only difference is that I like to include the labelling of most of the minutia in the chart for that reason.

My Time Analysis work I don’t post here apart from some dates on occasion because it is something I am still a new at this stage in comparison to Magdoran  with whom I am working closely  to pioneer this IP for the purposes of our own trading only. Having said that we have done very with the market movements in terms of timing this year.

The type of Timing work which I am looking at is slightly different to what Mag uses(although he too now is investigating it’s merits to see if he can integrate it within his approach as I am the Mclaren approach). It is very closely aligned to EW but in terms of TIME, and is actually easier to work with than EW in terms of price.

We looked at Seasonality years ago and it simply does not cut it for the type of derivatives trading which we undertake(where timing is very important)  being way too inconsistent.  But that is not to say it may not be beneficial for others.

I too am interested in Nicks VSA, but have not had time to look it just yet, hopefully next year.

All the best


Wavepicker


----------



## tech/a

*I'm sympathetic *towards Franks veiw.He is not alone. Take a look at reviews on Aget and you'll find much frustration in "Changing" wave counts.Even claims of totally useless.

Around 18 mths ago I came to the* realisation *that "Changing" wave counts are an intrugal part of Elliot Wave analysis,not a flaw.Infact the dynamic nature of wave counts is to me atleast the strength of the analysis.
You can actually analyse probability of wether the dynamics of a trade are and or will alter or are likely to be finite at a point in time. Like all analysis you'll be right or wrong---but I will add that after looking at 1000s of charts counts patterns and other analysis those that hit you in the face more often than not conform to your analysis.Those learning just wont find this occuring.

Waves has further honed this skill in analysis with the presentation of time analysis and Nick with seasonals and VSA analysis.
Canaussi like myself and a few others have spent a lot of time on Nicks combination (More VSA than seasonals).

Nicks statement that analysis is there to be Proven or Disproven rather than right or wrong rings a very strong accord with me.As does "Im here for profit".

But most importantly there is---*Application of analysis.*
For me I want to be able to apply analysis in shorter timeframes quickly and with minimum risk and high win rate.Ive found it in my own application of wave analysis and VSA which in many cases will be different to Waves and at times the same.

Does it matter. I think not. 
Franks analysis which I've watched and picked up on some of it works well enough for me to think that re visiting Elliot and VSA,possibly time,would,for Frank only add to your bottomline and confidence in your application of any analysis on any instrument.

My one last rule and one Waves has mentioned before is that if it *doesnt stand out* and hit you then dont try and make it (a trade).
This means that I just let many possible trades (as thought by others) pass by.
No problem there is always another trade and those that hit you hit you because they are meant to.

When you look at as many charts using your analysis you get very good at it.
Waves,Frank,Nick,Myself and Canaussi can atest to that.


----------



## Frank D

WavePicker,

Don’t patronizing me about Elliot Wave, I’m not an idiot.

 I stopped using EW because I think it’s a load of bollocks. But that’s one mans opinion. 

However, there is 94% of viewers of this thread that want to know more about it, or still trying to figure it out. 

Can you personally do me a EW technical view on ‘OIL’ over the long term, medium term and short term with charts, and out of the 11,000 members here, if there are 4 other EW analysts can you spare 1 hour and do the same.

A Simple technical view.

Much appreciated.

Frank


----------



## motorway

A process that unfolds with no self awareness

is a pure S curve

A system with awareness.. So The participants are getting cues from each other..

IS a S curve ... With precursor and overrun features. This could easily be a EW 5 wave cycle  ( or it might not ) .. The smooth S is pushed out of shape by  positive and negative feed backs which create overbought and oversold of different types ( esp different at the toddler and the geriatric stages of the cycle..Both have unsteady steps but different )

the S curve is the accumulation markup distribution --to a -->bifurcation point, a fork in the road that leads to either re accumulation or markdown...

cycles in cycles

OK

growth cycle without awareness ( bacteria in a petri dish ) S curve
growth cycle with awareness  ( liquid mkt beyond manipulation ) some sort of Elliot Wave pattern ( possibly)..

However liquid markets beyond manipulation do not exist except on time scales that are of generations..( eventually everything comes to the end of times )

The next stage up is a market with smart money causing manipulation

In a manipulated market... methodologies only work if it is in someones interest that they work...And they stop working when it is in someones interest that they stop working..

So on practical time scales

What matters is what the smart money is doing
and practically nothing else.....

I take it We all know what a S curve looks like ?
I do not have picture of one I can post...

I think EW has some merit
But when that (rigid ? )wave sequence breaks down
The How and Why is what is important.

Everything is a tool for  manipulation either for  accumulation, markup, distribution or markdown..

A tool is most useful if the opportunity cost of using it is minimal..

Following the Smart Money  has zero opportunity cost...

With correct principles It then is only  a  matter of skillful application..



Some observations

motorway


----------



## Nick Radge

> It is the only methodology that has positive expectation that no other methodology can claim




The above is a quote from your website Frank. Now, you want to talk more about bollocks?


----------



## wavepicker

Frank D said:


> WavePicker,
> 
> Don’t patronizing me about Elliot Wave, I’m not an idiot.
> 
> I stopped using EW because I think it’s a load of bollocks. But that’s one mans opinion.
> 
> However, there is 94% of viewers of this thread that want to know more about it, or still trying to figure it out.
> 
> Can you personally do me a EW technical view on ‘OIL’ over the long term, medium term and short term with charts, and out of the 11,000 members here, if there are 4 other EW analysts can you spare 1 hour and do the same.
> 
> A Simple technical view.
> 
> Much appreciated.
> 
> Frank




Hello Frank,

I am not trying patronize you about EW at all nor do I think you are idiot. In fact I have much respect for the AMT methodology you have been able to put together. I don’t know what ever made you think this.  Just bear in I and many of the posters in this forum are not idiots either, everyone has eyes and can see who and what has been consistent on these boards and best suits their needs.

 The ones that are interested in EW are doing so because they feel that they can make it work for them like others have. Yet others like you think it’s garbage. That fine, do what works for you Frank.

I will decline on this occasion to do any EW analysis on OIL because 

-1/ It’s not a market I trade
-2/ I have posted more than my fair share of charts I this forum already I am sure you   would agree

Don’t worry I am sure some EW posters will help you out there. I don’t fully understand why you would be interested in any opinion of an Elliotician if you think EW is a load of “bollocks” anyway. What is your motive here Frank?? Just stick to the AMT method that has served you well.


I also understand and sympathise with your frustration re promoting your fine ideas, but EW, Gann, and most of the other widely known methodologies have been popularized over a number of years and as such have had a wider audience. That is not to say they are better or worse because I believe both T/A and Fundamental Analysis have major flaws.

Regards

Wavepicker


----------



## buggalug

Frank D said:


> Can you personally do me a EW technical view on ‘OIL’ over the long term, medium term and short term with charts, and out of the 11,000 members here, if there are 4 other EW analysts can you spare 1 hour and do the same.
> 
> Frank




Not my counts and I only have very basic EW knowledge so I can't verify their correctness, but something for discussion.

Weekly
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67200088]&disp=P

Daily
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67199593]&disp=P


----------



## weird

Hi Frank

Looking forward to your new book coming out.

I guess if everyone was using the AGET programmed counts (and not manually ploting their own) or using other software then you would have the same analysis posted.  However, if you have 5 EW'ers manually plotting their own counts or using different software you may have five different analysis. 

I have attempted to program some of the more popular EW strats, and the 'better performing' one in my testing was trying to ride a 'continuation' of the overall trend, and either using a reversal or a continuation pattern to get back on board of the overall trend (after a pullback, and the continuation of a new leg). Counts or even EW aside, to me, your still just hoping to ride the continuation of a trend. This sounds like any other trend trading method. 

Although one may argue that because we are using price without restricting it to a simple lookback period which may also include some sort of averaging (noise removal) ... and , for example sake, using a moving average as a comparison, we have an improved trend finding method. Being a superior method, would ofcourse depend of what other trend finding methods we are comparing it , however we ofcourse have not exhausted all other trend and trend strength indicators in the simple comparison above. 

ABC corrections are another popular strategy. And the more popular strategies I have seen, also use a reversal pattern before entering a trade, and also using Risk/Reward calculations based on previous support/resistance zones or fibonacci projections. 

Frank, from a quick reading of your website, your methodogly appears to be based on patterns, short term cycles, which you have obverved as being repeatable in most market structures, and when traded within a system,  has positive expectancy.  It is refreshing to see another point of view put forward to the other popular approaches, and again I wish to mention I look forward to reading your new book when it is available.


----------



## Frank D

Nick,

And what do you think that daily system on the SPI is, ( position traders), or my range bar systems for intra-day traders are???

And, my analysis on global markets always has a ‘positive expectation’, based on my trading model.

Charging people $thousands to attend seminars of re-hashed T/A is what I call a load of bullocks.


Wavepicker,

I have no motive. The only motive is trying to teach you and others simpler trading techniques that don’t overload you with subjective trading matter. There are many that don’t want to admit it, but they take chunks out of my articles, and learnt many trading techniques over the years and then use it themselves.

I’ve given and continue to give away much of my information for free, I continue to provide readers with free reports here and in my website. And I do a damn good job of analyzing the markets, much better than most. (I do charge for a premium educational report $60 per month)

I’ll just stick to my own AMT thread, but I will continue to put my view on any thread if I think that any ‘position’ is open to risk, or I think there is a potential trade coming up that everyone can profit by.

Weird,

My personal opinion on EW is it’s an outdated method that was good for it’s time (last century), but it’s lagging, subjective, and haphazard. But if it works for you and others then good. 

But you and others can do better.


Frank


----------



## wavepicker

Frank D said:


> Nick,
> 
> And what do you think that daily system on the SPI is, ( position traders), or my range bar systems for intra-day traders are???
> 
> And, my analysis on global markets always has a ‘positive expectation’, based on my trading model.
> 
> Charging people $thousands to attend seminars of re-hashed T/A is what I call a load of bullocks.
> 
> 
> Wavepicker,
> 
> I have no motive. The only motive is trying to teach you and others simpler trading techniques that don’t overload you with subjective trading matter. There are many that don’t want to admit it, but they take chunks out of my articles, and learnt many trading techniques over the years and then use it themselves.
> 
> I’ve given and continue to give away much of my information for free, I continue to provide readers with free reports here and in my website. And I do a damn good job of analyzing the markets, much better than most. (I do charge for a premium educational report $60 per month)
> 
> I’ll just stick to my own AMT thread, but I will continue to put my view on any thread if I think that any ‘position’ is open to risk, or I think there is a potential trade coming up that everyone can profit by.
> 
> Weird,
> 
> My personal opinion on EW is it’s an outdated method that was good for it’s time (last century), but it’s lagging, subjective, and haphazard. But if it works for you and others then good.
> 
> But you and others can do better.
> 
> 
> Frank




Hello Frank,

You have done a tremendous amount of work incorporating your ideas into your AMT methodology. I don’t doubt you or your system  but have not really looked at it further than to see if it would be of benefit to me.

I am sure the interested parties in the AMT methodology are grateful for the material you have made available here.

In so far as EW or any other method being outdated I am not sure.  If the markets have changed so much over the last 50 years then we would not see the same patterns repeating on a daily basis. The same things that propel the markets 100 years are still in play today namely:-

-Hope
-Fear
-Greed

These have not changed in the last 100 years and probably never will.

Yes the AMT model or other methods might be a simpler technique to analyze and trade the market, there is no denying this.  EW, Gann and other methods do require quite a bit of commitment and work to understand and apply sometimes years depending on the individual.

Would you say that the AMT method is kinder to use in a trending market?  What about in choppy markets? The market we have had in the last 5 years has been great ,but what happens when the party is over and we start seeing more corrective, volatile and messy patterns??  Can one expect the AMT model to help deliver similar results?

Rergards 

Wavepicker


----------



## motorway

> what happens when the party is over and we start seeing more corrective, volatile and messy patterns?? Can one expect the AMT model to help deliver similar results?




Here correct use of various tools is important

P&F studies ( range bars mentioned are a related type methodology )

Would reveal a lot

P&F Charts would simply stop moving and hence building any potential.
Or give any signals. ( Money not at risk )
Charts that did.. would continually negate their counts and implications.

Except on very large magnitudes or very small

So You would need to be in harmony with the time scale necessary..

*BUT*

Comparative Relative strength studies

SHOULD have had You concentrating on better prospects..
Where P&F charts did build potentials and fulfil their implications on useful magnitudes and time scales..


No reason EW can not be integrated with P&F
Or any other methodolgy..

And I have seen examples of EW done and combined with P&F.


motorway


----------



## potato

Hey guys im learning EW. What do u guys think of my count on BHP?


----------



## MS+Tradesim

So I've never looked at EW and "Adaptive Analysis" is the first book I've read (still reading) that looks at it. Attached is a chart.....am I understanding the gist? Obviously I know nothing at this stage so would just like to know if I'm at least on the right track. (BTW the 2 point is higher than the starting point for line 1.) 

..


----------



## palanquin

Kauri said:


> *DT software...EOD version...*
> As far as E/W analysis goes strictly speaking it has none, unlike Get it does not attempt to place counts-waves.. it is a whiteboard where you manually do your own counts and place the zig zag.. .




I have just spent a week searching for relevant information and came across your post Kauri. Just wanted to say thanks, although the information was not posted for me, it is proving to be one of the most useful in my search for my direction. Much appreciated.  

“It’s not the Destination that counts, it’s the Journey”, but a few wins along the way sure keeps ones spirits up!


----------



## wavepicker

Frank D said:


> WavePicker,
> 
> I stopped using EW because I think it’s a load of bollocks. But that’s one mans opinion.
> 
> Frank







Frank D said:


> *Trading Stocks...*
> 
> 
> I don’t think ANZ is going down as far as some of you think.
> So many ABC formations and numbers I get so confused looking at some
> of these EW charts posted, and I spent many years with EW in the 90's.
> 
> 
> *Frank Dilernia*





Hey Frank,  

A load of bollocks EW might be, but for some it's actually proven quite effective on the short side since you made the above statement regarding ANZ.

Call EW subjective, lagging, not suitable for todays markets, whatever!!  On this occasion(and quite a few others in the past) we had a high probability wave count applied correctly, and it's proven to be rewarding to date for those that shorted it.

Just like users of any other methodology, Elliott Wave practioners make mistakes, that also make some stunning trades.

What's most important is the MINDSET of the trader and to pounce on opportunities when they appear, irrespective of what method is used. 

All the best

wavepicker


----------



## IFocus

hi Wavepicker

Have you been waiting patiently LOL 



> What's most important is the MINDSET of the trader and to pounce on opportunities when they appear, irrespective of what method is used.




Your statement is pretty much the holy grail IMHO

I know a trader who used a 13EMA to trade profitably for 6 years or more that I tried to emulate. Try as I did I struggled until a friend pointed out (by accident) her mind set / language when looking at the market since that moment I have never looked back.......

Her success had very little to do with the 13 EMA........

Focus


----------



## tech/a

> Elliott Wave practitioners make mistakes,




Not necessarily mistakes with Elliott or any other form of analysis.
Just the analysis is proven or dis proven.



> What's most important is the MINDSET of the trader and to pounce on opportunities when they appear, irrespective of what method is used.




Pouncing is fine,what you do after pouncing will determine profitability.


----------



## bootross

Hi guys, sorry for my ignorance, I am new to the Elliot Wave thing.

With the rule for Wave 3, ie Wave 3 is usually the longest but can't be the shortest, by "shortest" we are measuring in terms of price, not time, aren't we? 

So (assuming bull market here) if Wave 1 started at $2.00 and went to $3.00, then Wave 3 would have to travel at least $1.00 to be counted as a Wave 3?

Thanks,


----------



## Boggo

bootross said:


> Hi guys, sorry for my ignorance, I am new to the Elliot Wave thing.
> 
> With the rule for Wave 3, ie Wave 3 is usually the longest but can't be the shortest, by "shortest" we are measuring in terms of price, not time, aren't we?
> 
> So (assuming bull market here) if Wave 1 started at $2.00 and went to $3.00, then Wave 3 would have to travel at least $1.00 to be counted as a Wave 3?
> 
> Thanks,





The basic rules are... (assuming a bullish 5 wave)

Wave 2 cannot trade beyond the beginning of wave 1 ie, it cannot go below the start of wave 1.

Wave 4 cannot *Close* below the *closing high* of wave 1 ie, it can  dip below but not close below the close of wave 1.

Wave 3 cannot be the shortest *in price* of waves 1,3, and 5.

Treat those as a starting point, next step is to recognise when wave 2 and 4 are complete once you have got these packed away.

Mike


----------



## RichKid

Boggo said:


> The basic rules are... (assuming a bullish 5 wave)
> 
> Wave 2 cannot trade beyond the beginning of wave 1 ie, it cannot go below the start of wave 1.
> 
> Wave 4 cannot *Close* below the *closing high* of wave 1 ie, it can  dip below but not close below the close of wave 1.
> 
> Wave 3 cannot be the shortest *in price* of waves 1,3, and 5.
> 
> Treat those as a starting point, next step is to recognise when wave 2 and 4 are complete once you have got these packed away.
> 
> Mike




When I started my study of Elliott Wave I had trouble with the rule relating to W1 and W4 overlap- I still do in fact. I use the conservative formulation of the rule and consider a count to be invalid if ANY part of W4 enters the price territory of W1. Besides, if a wave   sequence is strong (ie truly impulsive) there should be no room for a sordid affair between w1 and w4 as the idealized wave form does not accommodate this. 

Ideally, the underlying psychology or character of w4 should really only result in a brief dip or sideways consolidation- although other deeper, prolonged corrective forms exist. I concede though that this is all theory, it's much harder to apply in practice.

I hear that certain exceptions are tolerated by some Elliotticians in some futures markets where the closing price guideline is used, as mentioned in the quote above (I understand that Elliott worked off bar charts using closing prices). 

Have a look at Elliott Wave International, they have a free course you can download which explains the rules in full- they also have free videos. Just sign up for a free membership.

If there is any controversy about rules, I tend to go with Wavepicker's views or those in Frost and Prechter's classic work 'Elliott Wave Principle'. 

Nick Radge has a no frills approach to EW too and I recommend that you analyze his work elsewhere on ASF. We all label charts differently so it may be worth seeking his view of the rule as well- over to you Nick if you're around.


----------



## austek

Boggo said:


> The basic rules are... (assuming a bullish 5 wave)
> 
> Wave 2 cannot trade beyond the beginning of wave 1 ie, it cannot go below the start of wave 1.
> 
> Wave 4 cannot *Close* below the *closing high* of wave 1 ie, it can  dip below but not close below the close of wave 1.
> 
> Wave 3 cannot be the shortest *in price* of waves 1,3, and 5.
> 
> Treat those as a starting point, next step is to recognise when wave 2 and 4 are complete once you have got these packed away.
> 
> Mike




Nicely put Boggo, like the clarity of how you offer the basic rules.

The next bit, waves 2 & 4, I get a workable result estimating the end of wave 2 using fib retracement 38.2% to 50% with Metastock
And the end of wave 4 using fib 23.6% to 38.2%

This works ok for my purposes but only Intermediate waves, and I guess my question is "I would like to learn more" 

Major waves 2 & 4 would probably use other fib ratios, but as I have a little  difficulty counting them, I haven't persued it further as yet.

I have the EW Principle book also Dynamic Traders and would like to know what the next steps to learn are to get the best out of EW and what other things it can do to help us as traders


----------



## RichKid

There is another issue I encountered with the rule involving the prohibition against w4 entering the 'price territory' of w1. 

If we have a truncated wave-v of wave 1 then the top of wave-iii of wave 1 cannot be breached. Here is a sketch of the 3 Core Rules of Elliott (attached), I find visual guides are easier to follow (even if it does involve my messy notation- apologies in advance).

I may be labouring the point here but as there are *only three fundamental Rules* we might as well be clear about them as these rules form the basis of your analysis.

The remaining theory about retracement levels (using fib levels), wave equality and wave targets etc are just guidelines. The 3 Core Rules take precedence. Some guidelines maybe more reliable than others (eg alternation).

Please note that EW doesn't suit everyone or every chart so don't force a count on a chart and don't force yourself to use it- there may be other forms of analysis which are a better fit for your profile. I enjoy it, so I use it. There is no point in being evangelical about a particular type of technical analysis imho, it just makes you a psychological mess when you become so attached to something in that manner. *EW has really helped me integrate my technical analysis with my risk management and position sizing- that is the key imo.* I'm still only just past the very basic stages of trend recognition and EW analysis so please take what I say in that context. The simpler I can make things the better.

Austek- imho, joining Elliott Wave International is a very cost effective way to take the next step, they have many world leading analysts such as Jeff Kennedy (& Bob Prechter, when he's around), various subscription packages and plenty of resources. I have no financial association with EWI but use their free resources a lot. As EW can be subjective you may find that EWI varies with Miner's and Radge's takes on EW.

PS. EWI summarises the three rules of Elliott for impulses as follows:
*
Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
Wave 3 is never the shortest wave.
Wave 4 never enters the price territory of wave 1.*


----------



## Boggo

austek said:


> The next bit, waves 2 & 4, I get a workable result estimating the end of wave 2 using fib retracement 38.2% to 50% with Metastock
> And the end of wave 4 using fib 23.6% to 38.2%




I am opening my thoughts/procedure etc up to criticism with these posts but I think I am at that learning stage where I need to do this before moving on.

I am trying to set myself some basic rules/guidelines for Elliott Wave analysis.

It is taking me a bit more time than I thought (many reasons including work, reading too much into it and being a slow learner) to get my head around many aspects of this subject.

I have many notes, diagrams and rules etc that I am trying to condense into a simple set of guidelines that I can fit on one A4 page.
While I like to understand all aspects of the process I do not believe that you need to spend hours analysing all the macro portions.

My simple rules for a wave 2 or 4..... (assuming a bull trend)

Simple wave 2 or 4 is usually an ABC correction

Wave B should not go above the start of wave A ie, not above the high of wave 1 or 3.

Wave C should be lower than the low of wave A ie, wave C is often the length of wave A but has a lower starting point. and therefore should finish below wave A.

When the price moves above wave B the ABC is complete ie, after wave C the price continues to rise above the wave B high then the wave 3 or 5 is in progress.


On the smaller chart in the top left of Rich Kid's post, between the wave 3 and the wave 5 may be a more complex wave 4, but you will note that the moves seem to be contained between the wave A low and the wave B high.

These moves are outside my personal basic guidelines above except that the uptrend has continued after the price passed the highest high after the wave 3 high.

Re the wave 4 overlapping wave 1, my understanding is that by using the close of both this will match a line chart.
If you have a line chart and it closes just above the wave 1, now switch to a bar or candle chart you may find that the low of 4 may have overlapped the high of 1.

Like Rich Kid mentioned, Radge and Miner are two people that have a detailed knowledge of the subject, another I would add is Steve Griffiths, the developer of MTPredictor software.

All my comments above are an indication of my current understanding of the subject and may be totally wrong, as I said I too am learning and trying to simplify the process.

Mike


----------



## Boggo

Found this chart of VCR which may serve as a graphic view of my attempt at explaining a simple ABC.

Compare the length of A and C waves.

Looking at the volume on the last bar would indicate to me that there was a lack of interest yesterday.

If it does continue then its initial targets are between 82c and 89c.

I don't hold, just using the chart as an example.

Mike


----------



## potato

hi bogo, im a beginer too.
corrections are the most complex part of elliot wave. there are many variations of an ABC correction. 
-wave B can be longer then wave A and can go past the start of wave A. 
-wave C does not have to be lower then the low of wave A.
corrections can come in 3 forms (flat, zigzag, triangle) and within these there are many variations of each form. i think the correction you are referring to is in the zigzag form, try having a look at a few examples of triangles and flats.


----------



## ithatheekret

Boggo said:


> Found this chart of VCR which may serve as a graphic view of my attempt at explaining a simple ABC.
> 
> Compare the length of A and C waves.
> 
> Looking at the volume on the last bar would indicate to me that there was a lack of interest yesterday.
> 
> If it does continue then its initial targets are between 82c and 89c.
> 
> I don't hold, just using the chart as an example.
> 
> Mike





Good post Mike , 

I had a lot of friends get caught up in the buying mania that sent the price into $3.60 , these were predominantly day traders on TNO , I screamed the stock down , saying something like " this stock will be available at much cheaper levels , after the plunge , some were calling a spike in it to carry on after it hit $1.20 , but I called it to trade between 70-90 cents .

If you could show that chart in a wave perspective , that would make interesting discussion .

regards and best ,

Mark


----------



## Boggo

Volume behaviour keeps me away. The volume spread analysis (VSA) guys on "The Chartist" forum could have some interesting comments on this.

Longer term chart below.

Mike


----------



## ithatheekret

taa muchly .


----------



## Magdoran

Boggo said:


> I am opening my thoughts/procedure etc up to criticism with these posts but I think I am at that learning stage where I need to do this before moving on.
> 
> I am trying to set myself some basic rules/guidelines for Elliott Wave analysis.
> 
> It is taking me a bit more time than I thought (many reasons including work, reading too much into it and being a slow learner) to get my head around many aspects of this subject.
> 
> I have many notes, diagrams and rules etc that I am trying to condense into a simple set of guidelines that I can fit on one A4 page.
> While I like to understand all aspects of the process I do not believe that you need to spend hours analysing all the macro portions.
> 
> My simple rules for a wave 2 or 4..... (assuming a bull trend)
> 
> Simple wave 2 or 4 is usually an ABC correction
> 
> Wave B should not go above the start of wave A ie, not above the high of wave 1 or 3.
> 
> Wave C should be lower than the low of wave A ie, wave C is often the length of wave A but has a lower starting point. and therefore should finish below wave A.
> 
> When the price moves above wave B the ABC is complete ie, after wave C the price continues to rise above the wave B high then the wave 3 or 5 is in progress.
> 
> 
> On the smaller chart in the top left of Rich Kid's post, between the wave 3 and the wave 5 may be a more complex wave 4, but you will note that the moves seem to be contained between the wave A low and the wave B high.
> 
> These moves are outside my personal basic guidelines above except that the uptrend has continued after the price passed the highest high after the wave 3 high.
> 
> Re the wave 4 overlapping wave 1, my understanding is that by using the close of both this will match a line chart.
> If you have a line chart and it closes just above the wave 1, now switch to a bar or candle chart you may find that the low of 4 may have overlapped the high of 1.
> 
> Like Rich Kid mentioned, Radge and Miner are two people that have a detailed knowledge of the subject, another I would add is Steve Griffiths, the developer of MTPredictor software.
> 
> All my comments above are an indication of my current understanding of the subject and may be totally wrong, as I said I too am learning and trying to simplify the process.
> 
> Mike



Hello Mike,

If you are serious about learning EW, go and do a member search on this site for wavepicker, and have a read of a variety of his works.

Personally, I think his work is probably the most interesting  interpretation of EW on this site, in that key ideas like understanding ending diagonals, and nesting patterns is very detailed and informative.  

He has also posted some very detailed charts real time in advance.  I think you will find his calls quite profound.

But you be the judge.  Have a look and see what you think.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## gazelle

NAB 18th January  . Hows the weather in sunny Kansas ?


----------



## wavepicker

For those interested in EW analysis who would like to exchange opinions, these are my current musings for the XAO.

ATM I have 2 counts in play, both point to the same conclusion(Ending Diagonal pattern in progress), the only difference is the TIME remaining for the pattern to complete. The Ending Diagonal pattern is characterized by the volatility and loss of momentum we have seen since July 2007 and is classed as creeping trend that can only end in 3 ways: 

- A throwover above the upper converging trendline(falsebreak) to end   wave 5 and then a very sharp reversal
-A throwunder below the upper converging trendline(possibly even a truncation relative to wave 3) to end the pattern and result in a sharp reversal
-A termination close to the upper converging trendline to finish wave 5.

Recently(the last 3-4 months) the USD Index has had a similar pattern in force(still underway) but in reverse to the that of XAO.

The first chart shows that we still have 2 more upward legs of the Ending Diagonal to complete, taking the market to about 7105pts approximately.
Until recently this was my preferred scenario or wave count for this market, however time cycle analysis points to only one more leg up for this bull market and as such I have an alternate wave count that better reflects the Time Cycle Analysis. The Time Cycle analysis coincides with the end of a Metonic Cycle going back as far as the Crash or 87 and is will result in the termination of multiple degrees of trend or cycles. As such the second wave count shown reflects the Time Cycle Analysis. This chart shows the market complete one final push up(wave 5) before the current bull ends. A rule in EWT is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave, therefore the current wave 5 in the Ending Diagonal cannot be longer than wave 3 both in time and price. Wave was 12 bars long(weekly chart) and therefore wave 5 should complete no later than 12 weeks from now(Middle Of March)

 Some months back we said that the turn window of 01/10/08 to 29/03/08 would be quite significant. At this stage I am betting on  the Feb/March on timezones but it could be earlier.

 Hopefully Magdoran will be available to help determine some critical dates if he has found a good vibration for Pattern, TIME, and Price level to come together.

Cheers

Wavepicker


----------



## macca

Hi Wavepicker,

If we accept the rumours that there will be an interest rate rise in the first week of February, that will work in with your time frames for a downtrigger.

Especially if the latest rumour of a .5% hike is true


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> The first chart shows that we still have 2 more upward legs of the Ending Diagonal to complete, taking the market to about 7105pts approximately.
> Until recently this was my preferred scenario or wave count for this market, however time cycle analysis points to only one more leg up for this bull market and as such I have an alternate wave count that better reflects the Time Cycle Analysis. The Time Cycle analysis coincides with the end of a Metonic Cycle going back as far as the Crash or 87 and is will result in the termination of multiple degrees of trend or cycles. As such the second wave count shown reflects the Time Cycle Analysis.




Good analysis WP. I just can't see the XAO getting above 7000, it really doesn't seem feasible to me... unless we get something totally stupid happening. So... are there other counts that wouldn't see it near 7000, or would that be outside of any EW analysis?

Cheers.


----------



## wavepicker

macca said:


> Hi Wavepicker,
> 
> If we accept the rumours that there will be an interest rate rise in the first week of February, that will work in with your time frames for a downtrigger.
> 
> Especially if the latest rumour of a .5% hike is true




Hi Macca,

Not sure what sort of trigger would cause this if it in fact actually happens that way because we are after all dealing with probable patterns. Anything is possible.

My point in that last post was the pattern in play, *the key is the pattern *and all the cycles work around the pattern. For those unfimiliar with ED type EW patterns, I have attached a very similar pattern of a recent stock and the aftermarth. That is what can be expected IMO if the pattern plays out.
So it's the pattern that I look to trade not the speculation or rumour of a political statement or event etc. For investors these patterns can be a nightmare if they caught the wrong way, for swing traders they can offer a great RR trade assuming the right contingencies are planned.

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> Good analysis WP. I just can't see the XAO getting above 7000, it really doesn't seem feasible to me... unless we get something totally stupid happening. So... are there other counts that wouldn't see it near 7000, or would that be outside of any EW analysis?
> 
> Cheers.




Good evening chops, how things with you?? Long time no hear?

I can't really anwer that question not sure to be honest. I am not really concerned with the price level as such and whether it goes over or 7000. Depending on the type of ED that plays out it may or may not. But let's look at what has just happened in the market for the 1/11/07 to 18/12/07, and that is an abc zigzag correction by the looks(unless I have the wavecount wrong and that is always a possibility)

My point was the PATTERN and the TIME analysis, they are the key, and they are what I am more confident in. This last 5th wave in the ED as mentioned in the earlier post might go over the last high or it might not. Working the Fib Ratio Analysis by the book(EW) I came up with 7105pts, but that is just a guide and not necessarily cast in stone

Cheers


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> My point was the PATTERN and the TIME analysis, they are the key, and they are what I am more confident in. This last 5th wave in the ED as mentioned in the earlier post might go over the last high or it might not. Working the Fib Ratio Analysis by the book(EW) I came up with 7105pts, but that is just a guide and not necessarily cast in stone
> 
> Cheers



Yah. It's going to be interesting never the less, because that all time high is going to be hard to take out...

And I'm good.  I hope you are as well.


----------



## wavepicker

Have just been looking into ANZ at present.

In post #49 it shown that a great shorting opportunity was at hand. Back then ANZ was trading at $31.70. We had just completed a wave 2 upward retracement and the acceleration phase of wave 3 was about start.(see first chart)

We were reminded in this thread that one must never short financial stocks as they only go up. A typical example was poster projecting the past trend (ANZ) into the future , and as such is a very poor strategy for trading the market.One must take into account all the possibilities and probabilities. 

How things have changed in the last few months of the credit crunch with ANZ getting smashed by 15%.

The next chart shows that ANZ should in the coming weeks undergo it's biggest upward rally(retracement of the impulse down) since that bearish forecast was made back in October. I beleive this will coincide with the broader market rally into our major Cycle turn window of 10/01/08 to 29/03/8
(I need to establish the most probable dates in the weeks ahead)

But IMO there will be more downside for ANZ post this upward rally finishing but for the moment I am looking for longs on this one.

Cheers


----------



## buggalug

wavepicker said:


> Have just been looking into ANZ at present.
> 
> In post #49 it shown that a great shorting opportunity was at hand. Back then ANZ was trading at $31.70. We had just completed a wave 2 upward retracement and the acceleration phase of wave 3 was about start.(see first chart)
> 
> We were reminded in this thread that one must never short financial stocks as they only go up. A typical example was poster projecting the past trend (ANZ) into the future , and as such is a very poor strategy for trading the market.One must take into account all the possibilities and probabilities.
> 
> How things have changed in the last few months of the credit crunch with ANZ getting smashed by 15%.
> 
> The next chart shows that ANZ should in the coming weeks undergo it's biggest upward rally(retracement of the impulse down) since that bearish forecast was made back in October. I beleive this will coincide with the broader market rally into our major Cycle turn window of 10/01/08 to 29/03/8
> (I need to establish the most probable dates in the weeks ahead)
> 
> But IMO there will be more downside for ANZ post this upward rally finishing but for the moment I am looking for longs on this one.
> 
> Cheers




Hi Wavepicker,

Looks like you were bang on the money with ANZ, amazes me how often you are correct with these things!

Keep up the good work, and thanks for sharing.


----------



## Kauri

No idea where she is headed.. could have completed a WC and be resuming an uptrend, just as easily could be in a W1-W2 of a deeper WC.. also my very simple count be complete rubbish..   ..
 The two time routines point to a period around the middle of January being significant.. possibly.. but as most of the indicated time points are around a week or so apart I guess that if I give them a couple of days leeway either side I can claim ... well...something???
Cheers and a happy and prosperous year to all
.......Kauri


----------



## Boggo

Great and detailed analysis wavepicker.

Thanks for that, adds to the area that I am learning at the moment, ie. subdivisions of a 5 wave trend.

Mike


----------



## CFD

buggalug said:


> Hi Wavepicker,
> Looks like you were bang on the money with ANZ, amazes me how often you are correct with these things!
> 
> Keep up the good work, and thanks for sharing.




What he said, and have a health and happy new year. (I think you've got prosperous in the bag.)


----------



## treefrog

hi wavepicker and other EWers,

great charts WP

I have interest only in EW and have not traded it but use a lot of fibonachi.

In the first chart in post #93

referring to the ascending wedge to "finish" the current LT bull run - ie the main Wave 5:
.......the first wave in this wedge lifts ~750
.......so w3 needs to be > 750 and could not be the w3 shown as this is too short???
.......and if w3 must be >750 we get the possibi;ity that last main W5 could run as high as 8000 and still not exceed the main W3??

what am i missing??


----------



## wavepicker

treefrog said:


> hi wavepicker and other EWers,
> 
> great charts WP
> 
> I have interest only in EW and have not traded it but use a lot of fibonachi.
> 
> In the first chart in post #93
> 
> referring to the ascending wedge to "finish" the current LT bull run - ie the main Wave 5:
> .......the first wave in this wedge lifts ~750
> .......so w3 needs to be > 750 and could not be the w3 shown as this is too short???
> .......and if w3 must be >750 we get the possibi;ity that last main W5 could run as high as 8000 and still not exceed the main W3??
> 
> what am i missing??




Hello treefrog,

The rules of Elliott state that wave 3 must NEVER be the shortest wave in an impulse. Now this does not mean it necessarily has to be the longest although in the Stock market third waves are usually the longest out of waves 1,3, and 5.

In this instance we have an Ending Diagonal pattern(wedge),  and in these structures wave 1 is almost always longest. Knowing this piece of information alone we now know that wave 3 must be equal shorter or shorter in price magnitude and probably time than wave 1. Another combination is that wave 3 = wave 1 and wave 5 extends(or makes a throwever above the upper converging trendline). Or yet another wave 3 =wave 1 and wave 5 is shorter than both. Quite often these waves are related to each other by 0.618


Wave 3 could also end up being in similar length or only slightly longer than wave 5. Remember the rule: wave 3 CANNOT be the shortest.

Ending Diagonal wave structures are 3’s and wave 4 overlaps the top of wave 1. They are distribution type patterns, and such patterns IMO the weaker hands continue to do the buying and the smarter money has been slowly unloading. 
The index continues to rise because there is still enough $$ coming in to push the averages up, but from fewer stocks(i.e. market breadth has diminished) as such upside is limited. 
They occur because the preceding wave has moved to far and too fast.

It takes a while to recognize these and get very familiar with them, but the perseverance is well worth it IMO. They offer some of the fastest and good RR trades around.

I should also stress that the I posted 2 charts in post #93 because I am not sure which one will play out. I favour the second scenario more than the first, but cannot dismiss scenario 1. remember, let the market prove, disprove your analysis.

It’s not too necessary to place too much emphasis on the ratio analysis(fibs).  I like to identify the EW pattern(wave structure), pattern of trend first as my foundation or guide to what the market is doing. *The pattern is the key*The price targets I mentioned are a guide only, the market can rise only a couple of hundred points to a price below the previous high and then the pattern may complete. We will have to monitor it and see what other clues it gives us as it traces out. There is no EW requirement that says we make a new high, although I would be confident of the pattern if it does.  My time cycle are pointing to the culmination of many cycles of varying degrees of trend coming together between 10/01/08 until late March that coincide with this Ending Diagonal. Now just because the cycles points are peaking in that time window, does not mean we make a new high, but it would be nice to see the price high topout at the same time as the cycle point peaks!!

I think this will be a very exciting time in the market, and commodities in particular this year will do it real hard. 

The buy and holders who don’t know how to take a profit will be have a tough year IMO


----------



## treefrog

wavepicker said:


> Hello treefrog,
> 
> 
> I think this will be a very exciting time in the market, and commodities in particular this year will do it real hard.
> 
> The buy and holders who don’t know how to take a profit will be have a tough year IMO




ta muchly for the detailed response

agree indications make your conclusions (quoted) likely - a rough year!


----------



## chops_a_must

Thought I'd put up a couple I've been mulling over for a while. Criticise at your leisure, or whatever.

First one is CSL. It's either completed a full 5 waves, or a V of a wave 3. I'd favour a full 5 waves, as it doesn't do so good when the yanks aren't. One thing that makes it difficult to analyse, is the probability of a not so obvious W4, given the lengthy W2 (as far as my understanding goes). But it is starting to chop like it hasn't before, and came within a whisker of a W5 breakout target. It also looks as if there is one of those reverse triangles forming which don't appear to be too good either.


Next one is WES. Looks to have completed a full 5 waves with a very weak wave 3 and 5. Although the W5 could have been augmented by future potential dilution regarding coles. I can't see how the coles sentiment is going to help them, with them years away from turning it around. Hence I'm guestimating it is ending a W5.

And not to be a total bear, the last one is COH. Looks to me to be forming, or in a W4. Some of these health related stocks do ok in rough times apparently. So, this is one that I'll look go long in. May take a while to pan out however. But as a longish term trade, with a very high R/R potential, I'm prepared to wait. I'll be looking to buy just under $70 I would say.

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## Magdoran

chops_a_must said:


> Thought I'd put up a couple I've been mulling over for a while. Criticise at your leisure, or whatever.
> 
> First one is CSL. It's either completed a full 5 waves, or a V of a wave 3. I'd favour a full 5 waves, as it doesn't do so good when the yanks aren't. One thing that makes it difficult to analyse, is the probability of a not so obvious W4, given the lengthy W2 (as far as my understanding goes). But it is starting to chop like it hasn't before, and came within a whisker of a W5 breakout target. It also looks as if there is one of those reverse triangles forming which don't appear to be too good either.
> 
> 
> Next one is WES. Looks to have completed a full 5 waves with a very weak wave 3 and 5. Although the W5 could have been augmented by future potential dilution regarding coles. I can't see how the coles sentiment is going to help them, with them years away from turning it around. Hence I'm guestimating it is ending a W5.
> 
> And not to be a total bear, the last one is COH. Looks to me to be forming, or in a W4. Some of these health related stocks do ok in rough times apparently. So, this is one that I'll look go long in. May take a while to pan out however. But as a longish term trade, with a very high R/R potential, I'm prepared to wait. I'll be looking to buy just under $70 I would say.
> 
> Cheers,
> Chops.



Hello Chops,

Good to see you are studiously looking at charts, and sharing your observations for discussion.  That's the best way to learn technical analysis in my experience.  Trial and error, reflection and constantly attempting to interpret charts is necessary in my view to build a capability to effectively recognize patterns.

wavepicker makes a key point that it is the pattern first and foremost that should be understood, and all the rest of the analysis follows from that, including time and price, and wave structure.

So, here's something for you to think about.  Looking at your charts tells me you're focusing on wave structure right now.  Great, it's part of the puzzle, but be careful not to impose a wave structure on the chart – a common malady especially for newer players.

Try looking at and mastering the “pattern of trend” first, rather than focusing on wave structure (see Bill McLaren's work on this – both wavepicker and I found this very powerful as a foundation).  The common problem I find is that looking purely at wave structure (alone), can offer a raft of possibilities, and it is often difficult to filter out the lower probability wave structures from the high probability ones.

Using complementary techniques allows you to rapidly select the highest probability wave structures,  and discard a host of unlikely counts.

Recognising the pattern of trend is helpful since you are looking at the pattern first, and then using this understanding to frame your wave structure analysis, and not the other way.  In my view by learning to do this right from the start accelerates the learning process by years – literally years.

I think that focusing on wave structure first without an understanding of the pattern is like putting the cart before the horse.  It makes it very difficult to recognize a whole cadre of clues that will make analysing charts much more effective.

Wave structure in my view is also just one piece of the puzzle, and is sometimes not always the best approach to use as the primary basis for analysis - although it can be a significant component – the art is in knowing how and when to use it, and in what proportion – take note of wavepicker's perspectives on this.  

Of course this is just my perspective, and you may choose to accept it wholly or in part, or even reject it outright.  That's up to you.  At least if you consider this perspective, this should I hope help to clarify the importance of understanding what you are doing as a student of the markets, and be conscious of your choices. (Which I suspect you may only be partly aware of currently – hence I hope this perspective offers some food for thought behind the obvious process, and start to look at the cognitive process involved in chart analysis).

Here's another tip.  Try using straight volume on the chart.  This is actually a significant part of the clue if you know what to look for in relation to the pattern.

Good luck chops, and good to see you putting in so much effort into technical analysis.


Kind Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Boggo

BLT Chart 

Bought this as a day trade at 16c on the re-open at midday, watched as it ran up with 1 minute chart, was about to bail out when it turned down at 25c but saw a possible wave 4 form at the turn up at 22c.
Assumed the wave 5 might be the about the same as wave 1 and not longer than wave 3, placed sell at 29c. Luv it.

Mike


----------



## Edwood

have seen the odd chart around showing the recent moves down on several global indices (Dow, FTSE, Dax) as an a-b-c into a wave 4 low, which tested wave 4 of the June 2006 correction.  In other words we could now be in wave 1 for the next impulse higher.  Counts valid while the recent lows hold on an EOD basis - any comments?


----------



## Porper

Edwood said:


> have seen the odd chart around showing the recent moves down on several global indices (Dow, FTSE, Dax) as an a-b-c into a wave 4 low, which tested wave 4 of the June 2006 correction.  In other words we could now be in wave 1 for the next impulse higher.  Counts valid while the recent lows hold on an EOD basis - any comments?




I posted this on another site last night, the count isn't clean, but the nearest I could get to a valid count.

Notice how the Dow bounced away from the previous high in 2000 before the tech crash.Maybe, coincidence, maybe not.

Yes wave C does finish around the wave 4 low, but and it is a big but...........we only have 3 waves coming down, we need 5 for a wave C, so we may see a push higher and then the wave 5 to complete.

It's also possible that we will plummet into the abyth of course.


----------



## wavepicker

For those intrested in Elliott waves the following chart I posted back in October last year. It was my most objective highest probability wave count for the DJIA in the following thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=209705&postcount=510

The rest is history (see the chart below). Hindsight is a beautiful thing but if one has confidence in EW and the following charts it could save one lot's of $$ as well as make a bundle on the downside.

In this case the wave structure and wave count were there, timing the exact peak was much more a challenge and proved to be difficult being out by up to 3 weeks. Nevertheless there is much merit in EW analysis if one know how to use it to their advantage.


The other link below was post of a forecast made using FFT Cycles Analysis from the Foundation Of the Study Of Cycles using their software Tehsignal. it was made last September. Looks like there maybe some merit in Cyclic Analysis studies in combination with EW

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=198039&postcount=1438


Good Trading to all


----------



## tech/a

Of all the forms of analysis I have studied Time and again E/W proves to me at least that it is well worth the time to understand and apply,In medium term analysis.

The very long term 20 yrs + doesn't seem that accurate.
Combination with other analysis can prove very beneficial.

Love your work Waves.


----------



## wavepicker

tech/a said:


> Of all the forms of analysis I have studied Time and again E/W proves to me at least that it is well worth the time to understand and apply,In medium term analysis.
> 
> The very long term 20 yrs + doesn't seem that accurate.
> Combination with other analysis can prove very beneficial.
> 
> Love your work Waves.




Thanks Tech,  

The DJIA chart was actually quite easy, the All Ords EW count was much more elusive, and actually expected one leg higher(but not necessarily to new highs), as such caught us by surprise.

On many occasions one can come very close to counting an impulse and be out be just one last wave. That is why it's important to do the wave analysis as objectively as possible and take as many possibilities/probabilities into consideration!!

Cheers


----------



## lioness

wavepicker said:


> Thanks Tech,
> 
> The DJIA chart was actually quite easy, the All Ords EW count was much more elusive, and actually expected one leg higher(but not necessarily to new highs), as such caught us by surprise.
> 
> On many occasions one can come very close to counting an impulse and be out be just one last wave. That is why it's important to do the wave analysis as objectively as possible and take as many possibilities/probabilities into consideration!!
> 
> Cheers




Wavepicker, I have been following you and appreciate the input here. Can you provide a clear and concisive view of the next move and timeframe and targets.

I wont hold it to you.


----------



## wavepicker

This is a quick analysis in LLC. Like most other bluechips I have looked at( and indexes), the 11th March seems to keep cropping up. Ofcourse it might be minor(I do have another alternate turn date for a high for the 21st March) Both are strong possibilities but I like 11th March at present because it seems to be everywhere I look.

LLC recently completed 5 waves down along with the broader market. Have attached a chart with how common market symmetry is in terms of fibonacci symmetrical triangles. This gives much clues to possible future highs and lows, especially when they line up with fixed cycle points. For now would expect LLC to countertrend rally along with the rest of the market.

Cheers


----------



## MARKETWAVES

wavepicker said:


> For those intrested in Elliott waves the following chart I posted back in October last year. It was my most objective highest probability wave count for the DJIA in the following thread.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=209705&postcount=510
> 
> The rest is history (see the chart below). Hindsight is a beautiful thing but if one has confidence in EW and the following charts it could save one lot's of $$ as well as make a bundle on the downside.
> 
> In this case the wave structure and wave count were there, timing the exact peak was much more a challenge and proved to be difficult being out by up to 3 weeks. Nevertheless there is much merit in EW analysis if one know how to use it to their advantage.
> 
> 
> Good Trading to all



  Congrats , to  you ////////......... Wavepicker 
---------------------------------------------------
  Now See this Viedo Here :
---------------------------------------------------
Bob Pretcher , Ceo
 ELLIOTT WAVES INTERNATIONAL 
-------------------------------------
* Bloomberg Tv* -  INTERVIEW 

Click Here 
http://youtube.com/watch?v=WJnMia2rARI

--------------------------------------------------


----------



## Porper

Does anybody subscribe to Pretchers Elliot Wave international, I have heard he has made a lot of forcasts that were way out, basically predicting a crash any time now for the past 5 years.

I suppose eventually he will be right and be a legend .

Good call Wavepicker, amazing how many people projecting Time Cycles have early to mid March as some turning point.

I don't know if anybody else has noticed but a lot of stocks appear to be consolidating at previous support levels.This of course could be positive or negative so of little benefit but worth noting.


----------



## wavepicker

Porper said:


> Does anybody subscribe to Pretchers Elliot Wave international, I have heard he has made a lot of forcasts that were way out, basically predicting a crash any time now for the past 5 years.
> 
> I suppose eventually he will be right and be a legend .
> 
> Good call Wavepicker, amazing how many people projecting Time Cycles have early to mid March as some turning point.
> 
> I don't know if anybody else has noticed but a lot of stocks appear to be consolidating at previous support levels.This of course could be positive or negative so of little benefit but worth noting.





Hello Pete,

Prechter is a legend in my eyes. He has made some absolutely extroadinary calls ove the last 30 years and also won the 1984 US Trading Championships(using real $$) with a 444% gain in a few months, breaking the record at that time. Even to this day he still makes some amazing calls.  Where his reputuation got tarnished was for a forecast for a crash in 1995/6 and it actually came 2000. Again since 2003. These were long term forecasts, which are very very hard to make IMO, especially using TA.

His became a big name after  predicting the Bull market of the 80's back in 1978, and then the crash of 87 one week before it happened. Also picking the peak in Gold in 1980 almost to the day as well as the low in Feb 2001 amonsgt other things.

I am still subscribed to the Elliott Wave Theorist(Prechters newsletter), but not EWI's other services which are done by Prechters staff, which IMO are not in Precheter league apart from Jeff Kennedy.

Just on time cycles. I posted an analsysis in the XAO Analsysis thread a few weeks ago.  This was pointing for the market to climb to 6244pts for a peak on 10/11th March.

Since then I have discovered that the "spacing" of the vertical lines of my last cycle was out by 5 bars(too short) for the Fixed Time Cycles analysis on the daily chart. (The last 2 vertical lines). As such where I was looking for mid March for a high, it should actually be 20/25th March approximately.

I have not altered the 10/11th March as turn date. But I have added another as an alternate(which I made mention of in that post) of 21st March. They are the 2 key dates. I am favouring 10/11th March at present because it seems to be cropping up almost everywhere I look, but also keep 21st March on the radar as well.

Now why favour 11th March when the cycles are saying approximately 25th March you may ask?  The answer is simple, you asked me back then, are the cycles not expanding and contracting continuously? The answer is YES. 
This is a what happens. In an uptrend the highs usually come 5-8 bars later than expected, and the countertrends 5-8 bars earlier than expected.
In a downtrend, it's the other way around.(The lows come late and upward rallies come early.)

So, the low we just had yesterday, I was expecting to have happened early last week. It came late because the larger trend s now down. The next high then, is expected to come 25th March approx, but because the larger trend is now down the rallies tend to complete earlier than expected by 5-8 bars. Thus will stick with the 11th March for now.

Will posted some new charts in XAO Analsysis thread at a later stage.

Cheers


----------



## Porper

wavepicker said:


> Hello Pete,
> 
> Prechter is a legend in my eyes. He has made some absolutely extroadinary calls ove the last 30 years and also won the 1984 US Trading Championships(using real $$) with a 444% gain in a few months, breaking the record at that time. Even to this day he still makes some amazing calls.  Where his reputuation got tarnished was for a forecast for a crash in 1995/6 and it actually came 2000. Again since 2003. These were long term forecasts, which are very very hard to make IMO, especially using TA.
> 
> His became a big name after  predicting the Bull market of the 80's back in 1978, and then the crash of 87 one week before it happened. Also picking the peak in Gold in 1980 almost to the day as well as the low in Feb 2001 amonsgt other things.
> 
> I am still subscribed to the Elliott Wave Theorist(Prechters newsletter), but not EWI's other services which are done by Prechters staff, which IMO are not in Precheter league apart from Jeff Kennedy.
> 
> Just on time cycles. I posted an analsysis in the XAO Analsysis thread a few weeks ago.  This was pointing for the market to climb to 6244pts for a peak on 10/11th March.
> 
> Since then I have discovered that the "spacing" of the vertical lines of my last cycle was out by 5 bars(too short) for the Fixed Time Cycles analysis on the daily chart. (The last 2 vertical lines). As such where I was looking for mid March for a high, it should actually be 20/25th March approximately.
> 
> I have not altered the 10/11th March as turn date. But I have added another as an alternate(which I made mention of in that post) of 21st March. They are the 2 key dates. I am favouring 10/11th March at present because it seems to be cropping up almost everywhere I look, but also keep 21st March on the radar as well.
> 
> Now why favour 11th March when the cycles are saying approximately 25th March you may ask?  The answer is simple, you asked me back then, are the cycles not expanding and contracting continuously? The answer is YES.
> This is a what happens. In an uptrend the highs usually come 5-8 bars later than expected, and the countertrends 5-8 bars earlier than expected.
> In a downtrend, it's the other way around.(The lows come late and upward rallies come early.)
> 
> So, the low we just had yesterday, I was expecting to have happened early last week. It came late because the larger trend s now down. The next high then, is expected to come 25th March approx, but because the larger trend is now down the rallies tend to complete earlier than expected by 5-8 bars. Thus will stick with the 11th March for now.
> 
> Will posted some new charts in XAO Analsysis thread at a later stage.
> 
> Cheers




Good to hear your views Waves, gives a good balance between the bad things you hear and the good.I have read some articles from Kennedy, seems to know his stuff, I think most of Pretchers work is pay only so will have to have a think about this.

Interesting to hear about the fixed time cycles and how they move within trends, didn't know that.Look forward to your XAO charts as then I have something to compare against, see where I am at.A Lot to learn but worth the effort for anybody i.m.o.

As a side note I am pretty sure that Robert Miner won the trading championships a while back, as you know he is heavily into Elliot and Fib, it would seem that this feat is no coincidence


----------



## chops_a_must

WP,

What would your opinion be of the market being in a W4 on the down move thus far?

Cheers.


----------



## wavepicker

Porper said:


> As a side note I am pretty sure that Robert Miner won the trading championships a while back, as you know he is heavily into Elliot and Fib, it would seem that this feat is no coincidence




No doubt Miner is quite accomplished. Prechter after winning the championships(trading the OEX), that although he had a 444% gain, this was excluding commisssions. Apparently he made so many trades to acheive the 444% that if commisions were included he would not have made that much(this was 1984 ofcourse and commissions were quite expensive).

Although quite an accomplished options trader, he has always claimed that he has a long term investmet outlook and focused on insitutuinal clients


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> WP,
> 
> What would your opinion be of the market being in a W4 on the down move thus far?
> 
> Cheers.



Refer to XAO Analysis thread.


----------



## theasxgorilla

Porper said:


> Good to hear your views Waves, gives a good balance between the bad things you hear and the good.I have read some articles from Kennedy, seems to know his stuff, I think most of Pretchers work is pay only so will have to have a think about this.




Closer to home you have Nick Radge's 'Chartist' service which does daily coverage of *many *local stocks, local and international indexes, along with some currencies and commodities.  And he is a regular poster here on ASF.

I found EWI to be US and global 'big picture' heavy...which is interesting in and of itself, but since I don't trade those markets and the local market has proven time and again over the years that it's capabable of forging it's own patterns I find local analysis more valuable.

I guess it depends on what you want.  I guess thats what makes Wave Pickers analysis so valuable too.

ASX.G


----------



## MARKETWAVES

wavepicker said:


> No doubt Miner is quite accomplished. Prechter after winning the championships(trading the OEX), that although he had a 444% gain, this was excluding commisssions. Apparently he made so many trades to acheive the 444% that if commisions were included he would not have made that much(this was 1984 ofcourse and commissions were quite expensive).
> 
> Although quite an accomplished options trader, he has always claimed that he has a long term investmet outlook and focused on insitutuinal clients



Wavepicker ,
  What  about  Glen  Neely-  is  he  not  accomplished also ?


----------



## Porper

theasxgorilla said:


> Closer to home you have Nick Radge's 'Chartist' service which does daily coverage of *many *local stocks, local and international indexes, along with some currencies and commodities.  And he is a regular poster here on ASF.
> 
> I found EWI to be US and global 'big picture' heavy...which is interesting in and of itself, but since I don't trade those markets and the local market has proven time and again over the years that it's capabable of forging it's own patterns I find local analysis more valuable.
> 
> I guess it depends on what you want.  I guess thats what makes Wave Pickers analysis so valuable too.
> 
> ASX.G




Yes, already a subscriber to Nick Radges' Chartist service, excellent too i.m.o, but I was just interested in other professionals interpretation of Elliot Wave, and fib, time analysis etc.

Always many ways to skin a cat, and always never know enough !!


----------



## tech/a

As Elliott Analysis is *dynamic*,people often become disillusioned when a wave count fails.
It is a characteristic of the analysis that upon wave count failure other alternative counts are presented as the nature of the counts,wave lengths and extensions become aparent.

This takes a while for people to understand and become proficient in trading these dynamics.
Waiting for trade entries and exits to come to you using Elliott is a nature of the beast.
As Radge says
"Prove,Disprove".

Failure of a count doesnt mean failure of analysis.Just as the failure of a spark plug doesnt mean the car has had it.


----------



## theasxgorilla

tech/a said:


> As Elliott Analysis is *dynamic*,people often become disillusioned when a wave count fails.




I become disillusioned by consecutive losing trades and negative expectancy, how about you?  



tech/a said:


> Failure of a count doesnt mean failure of analysis.Just as the failure of a spark plug doesnt mean the car has had it.




Just as success of a count doesn't guarantee profit from a trade.  It's just as important to know the difference between a proficient analyst and a profitable trader if you're going to take action on what someone is telling you.

ASX.G


----------



## wavepicker

Current EW musings for XAO


----------



## wavepicker

terms peak? Have discussed the possibilities for Gold in the "Where Is Gold Heading Thread"

STO is an oil stock that I keep an eye on quite a bit. The monthly EW chart shows the possibility of a long term completing impulse, which is my Number 1 count. Red wave 5 appears to be a developing Ending Diagonal which if true might be very bearish.

Zooming into the daily chart one can see that wave 1(green) is the longest wave followed by wave 3(green) and wave 5(green) as well as overlap between waves 1 and 4 identifying the pattern together with 2 converging trendlines. The key to the pattern is the length of wave 5, it needs to remain shorter or at the most equal  in length than wave 3. Therefore an upward break of $17.14 would invalidate the pattern and something else is happening. However I suspect the pattern is now complete and I am looking at possible short poistions on a retest of the high.


----------



## Porper

wavepicker said:


> Current EW musings for XAO




This is a weekly chart, I have a wave B ending around the 16th May just above 6000, followed by a wave C down to just above 4500 which should complete the correction.

I admit there a couple of other counts, 1 being the recent high was a wave 5 and not a 3 which makes little difference short to medium term.

The second possibility is that the recent high was a wave B in an extended flat correction and we have completed the wave C down and will continue forever upwards with blue sky potential.If we go below 5380 that scenario is highly unlikey, most would say highly unlikely anyway, but fundamentals don't come into the counts, so is possible. 

Wavepicker, did you have a time zone for the end of your triangle (larger degree wave B) would be interested what date you come up with although I know we use different methods.


----------



## wavepicker

Porper said:


> This is a weekly chart, I have a wave B ending around the 16th May just above 6000, followed by a wave C down to just above 4500 which should complete the correction.
> 
> I admit there a couple of other counts, 1 being the recent high was a wave 5 and not a 3 which makes little difference short to medium term.
> 
> The second possibility is that the recent high was a wave B in an extended flat correction and we have completed the wave C down and will continue forever upwards with blue sky potential.If we go below 5380 that scenario is highly unlikey, most would say highly unlikely anyway, but fundamentals don't come into the counts, so is possible.
> 
> Wavepicker, did you have a time zone for the end of your triangle (larger degree wave B) would be interested what date you come up with although I know we use different methods.





Hello Porper, thanks for the chart. Don't have any date for the end of wave B yet. As you say there are many possibilities. My chart above says 5th May for this current leg up, but it could also come a little later wich gels you the date in your chart. (16th 17th May). Will have to monitor it for now and look for the wave structure for clues

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

Just thought I would update the EW chart posted a few weeks ago:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=283151&postcount=129

Got the rally we expected back then so the count was pretty good. Blue and pink wave C's are at the later stages of their legs and should terminate at the 5800-5900 level unless we had a completion yesterday at 5740pts. Either way we are getting close to the termination of a Medium Term Cycle I estimate between 5-9th May. 

Short term(1 Hr Cycles Chart) looks like we will pullback, but I feel prices still needs to reach a higher level relative to the Nominal level(blue line) on the 4hr and 8Hr Cycles Charts

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

wavepicker said:


> Just thought I would update the EW chart posted a few weeks ago:
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=283151&postcount=129
> 
> Got the rally we expected back then so the count was pretty good. Blue and pink wave C's are at the later stages of their legs and should terminate at the 5800-5900 level unless we had a completion yesterday at 5740pts. Either way we are getting close to the termination of a Medium Term Cycle I estimate between 5-9th May.
> 
> Short term(1 Hr Cycles Chart) looks like we will pullback, but I feel prices still needs to reach a higher level relative to the Nominal level(blue line) on the 4hr and 8Hr Cycles Charts
> 
> Cheers




Following the EW and Cycles Multi Time frame analysis in th last post, market pretty much playing ball with my thoughts both on the short term (1Hr Chart) and longer term (8 Hr charts)
We expected some short term weakness( as seen in the cycles charts in the last post)  and then a continuation to the 5800-5900 range and I would say just eyeballing it perhaps approx 5850 might be close.

Still expecting market to rally into the target time zone of 5-9th May and then reversel of some type.

Cheers


----------



## CamKawa

It will be interesting to see how the market pans out. I follow this thread with great interest.


----------



## wavepicker

CamKawa said:


> It will be interesting to see how the market pans out. I follow this thread with great interest.





Thanks Camkawa,

That forecast from weeks ago was for a peak between May 5th and May 9th. The level was between 5800-5900. I believe we may have had that turn today but too early to call. If not then prices will run up one more leg before topping out. Either way, the Cycles work has been pretty accurate in the short term swingover the last few weeks.

The fundemental addicts have been out with the knives both in the Gold Thread and the Oil Thread. They are unable to give both approximate price and time targets. So if this works out OK it will be a thumbs up for the TA people at this juncture. Even if it does not, simply being on the right side of the swing trade trend for most of the time is enough, and what my goal is.

Something the the funnymental addicts struggle to do at the best of times.

Cheers


----------



## ah13

wavepicker said:


> terms peak? Have discussed the possibilities for Gold in the "Where Is Gold Heading Thread"
> 
> STO is an oil stock that I keep an eye on quite a bit. The monthly EW chart shows the possibility of a long term completing impulse, which is my Number 1 count. Red wave 5 appears to be a developing Ending Diagonal which if true might be very bearish.
> 
> Zooming into the daily chart one can see that wave 1(green) is the longest wave followed by wave 3(green) and wave 5(green) as well as overlap between waves 1 and 4 identifying the pattern together with 2 converging trendlines. The key to the pattern is the length of wave 5, it needs to remain shorter or at the most equal  in length than wave 3. Therefore an upward break of $17.14 would invalidate the pattern and something else is happening. However I suspect the pattern is now complete and I am looking at possible short poistions on a retest of the high.




Wavepicker 
Would be interested in your current view of STO now that $17.14 has been decisively cleared.
Thanks


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Aud/Usd*
 ( Short-Term Wavecount )

 Here  is  a look  at  what  may  be  occurring .......

-------------------------------------------------------------
* Only a Probability*, ..................Not Cast in Stone !

--------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## potato

I like this thread so just to keep it alive heres a chart of BHP.
Expanding flat? What do u guys think?


----------



## soso

Hello everyone,

I'm an EW beginner and would like to have the opinion of accomplished EW users (wavepicker, nick, porper, anyone else) on the weekly chart of Euro.

There are 2 things to about that chart:
1) The 2004-2005 move it stands out as a 5 wave move. But looking at the long term trend it is clearly a correction of the bull trend. I have a difficult time accepting any other count since a 5 wave stands out so well. How would you count it?

2) The bull move since 2005 bottom I can't see any clear count, a long series of hh & hl that would be dangerous to fade. Would you count it? If yes, how?

Thanks!


----------



## wavepicker

soso said:


> Hello everyone,
> 
> I'm an EW beginner and would like to have the opinion of accomplished EW users (wavepicker, nick, porper, anyone else) on the weekly chart of Euro.
> 
> There are 2 things to about that chart:
> 1) The 2004-2005 move it stands out as a 5 wave move. But looking at the long term trend it is clearly a correction of the bull trend. I have a difficult time accepting any other count since a 5 wave stands out so well. How would you count it?
> 
> 2) The bull move since 2005 bottom I can't see any clear count, a long series of hh & hl that would be dangerous to fade. Would you count it? If yes, how?
> 
> Thanks!





Hello soso, I bought this point up to Nick Radge on this very chart some years ago. At that time I managed to identify this as a correction NOT an impulse. 

Why??  Have a look at the daily chart attached. Look at the subdivisions in what most people would have called waves 1 and 5. They break down into 3 wave structures(very clearly at that). Thus I labelled this as an WXY correction not an impulse.

There is nothing hard about this, and you don't have to be an expert to pick this up, it's simple EW pattern recognition. Remebver waves 1,3 and 5 must subdivide into 5's otherwise it's corrective. There is your answer, you just have to study your market well to come to the most objective conclusion possible.

Will answer 2nd question at a later time


Hope this helps


----------



## soso

wavepicker said:


> Have a look at the daily chart attached. Look at the subdivisions in what most people would have called waves 1 and 5. They break down into 3 wave structures(very clearly at that). Thus I labelled this as an WXY correction not an impulse.




Hi wavepicker,

It is very clear now, thank you. It seems that when things are not clear then one needs to go lower to identofy the waves within the waves. Like this was the case. If it is still not clear then better staying out.


----------



## soso

Hello wavepicker and all,

This is the closest I can get to count the last 2-3 years of EURUSD. Any comments especially regarding corrections?

Thanks,
-soso


----------



## soso

I have another version of the count and I think it looks much better. 

The main problem with the previous count was the wave II which looked so small in both price and time. Especially in time. This version of counting tries to solve the problem and we get interesting _coincedences_:
*1)* Wave III = Wave I * 162%.
*2)* Time of the ABC correction is exactly 50% of the time of the impulse, or Time WII = Time WI/2. 
*3)* The whole 12345-ABC cycle took exactly 4 squares of 144. Maybe you guys don't use this but I use Gann cycles and I can assure you EURUSD likes 144 day cycles. 

So if the correction is irregular - running I think is the name- then it simply means that the trend is very strong to the upside, which is what we got. 

Then we are in the Wave IV which from the point of view of time is not done yet.


----------



## soso

All my EW skills come from the _old school _ - Prechter's classic EW. Combined with the simplicity of Miner's style. 
I heard there is another school that is based around Glenn Neely teachings. Is it any worth to read his book? I am content around the classic style but I try to keep and open mind to any new idea.

Thanks,
-soso


----------



## wavepicker

Financials have led the broader market down, and they are the key IMO for a termination for this leg of the bear market.  
After focusing on ANZ in a post late last year which hinted to a big move down which actually turned out to be a reasonable EW analysis with great R/R ,I am actually looking at the other side of the spectrum now.

Specifically looking at CBA as it has probably the largest weighting of the financials. On the Daily and weekly chart this looks to be a sharp a-b-c ZigZag correction. What has caught my eye is the sideways trend of the last 4 months. Although on the daily chart this is technically an upward zigzag and not sideways structure, on the Weekly it looks the part.

I am looking for a fast "thrust" to the downside to complete this green abc move down. Specifically on the daily chart I am expecting 5 waves down from the top of green wave b to complete green wave c and the bear campaign for this leg. Maroon wave 1 completed yesterday, wave 2 started today probably completed today or tomorrow. Ultimate target is $32-35 by mid August. Appears to be some exhaustion creeping in here in wave 1 which think will be more evident in waves 3 -5


Cheers


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Here you go potato,

I've included EW analysis on both the XMJ and BHP. The XMJ provides a 'clearer' view of the market v's BHP and helps confirm the BHP wave counts.

A point to note: The triangle wave 4 that is currently underway on BHP could be interpreted differently than the XMJ. Hence, I spent more time looking at BHP but because of the significant gaps on my Charting package it was rather hard to determine wave 3 of (3) and wave 4 of (3). A breakout of the triangle to the downside will clear a lot up.

However the XMJ does help clarify BHP to a large extent and I suggest when using EW on BHP, also determine the wave counts on the XMJ as well. If you overlay the XMJ on BHP, they follow extremely closely and the wave counts are almost similar.


----------



## potato

thanx ozwaveguy, il study your count now


----------



## salsem

hello OzW
My views on sp


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Hi EWers

An idea you may want to consider in predicting the future wave structures....

Time is a very important element of EW and probably needs to be included more in EW analysis as a general statement.

The charting package I use has a %R Arc function which is basically a Fibonannci arc with 33%, 38% 50% 61% and  66% lines between 2 points on the chart. 

The idea is to use the %R function  - not to subdivide two defined points, but to determine:

1) the end of wave 3 or
2) the end of wave 4 or
3) the start/end of the a-b-c correction that follows the wave

Surprisingly there seems to be good correlation when using the %R between wave 1 or 2 and the rest of the wave structure.

Even when wave 3 is extended, taking the start/end points of the first wave 2 of 3 you can still accurately hit the start or end of wave 4 and 5, abc correction.

The key is to simply place the cursor at the start of the wave structure and then ensure the 33% 38% lines hit the start or finish of wave 2. The other side of the %R should hit or be close to the start/end of wave 4,5,abc.

You can use trend lines, fibonnaci,  linear regression etc to get a good idea of the rest of the wave structure.

I'm yet to really get into this, but early results seem very acceptable  - provided you believe you have 5 waves unfolding, and wave 2 has completed.


----------



## wavepicker

Hi Ozwaveguy,

I mucked around with this stuff (Golden Spiral) about 8 years ago and wrote some code in VB based on instructions in Fischers book "Fibonacci Applications for Traders".

This is an area that still needs to be looked into, but too use this tool consistantly still has been a challenge for many. I came to the conclusion back then it was of limited value and have focused on other areas instead.

Some of the problems I came across were as follows:-

-Origin or Starting point
-Direction of Rotation
-Which Rings of the Spirals are significant

As such *too many* possibilities and our jobs as traders should be in reducing the possibilities in order to increase the probabilities for successfull trades.

Cheers

Hope you have more success with it.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

salsem said:


> hello OzW
> My views on sp




Hi salsem,

Looks like a completely reasonable count to me. One suggestion: Your wave 4, if a triangle in your count, then it would probably have ended 4 days later to complete the five legs.

It's also possible that wave 4 ended in 2days @ 1044 points, and what we're seeing now is a complex ending diagonal pattern to finish off wave 5 - so be prepared for that. Ideally I wouldn't like to see that as 2 days seems out of whack with the time taken for wave 2. 

Completing wave 5 also brings into play the alternate count that you've labeled as A-B as well. Once wave 5 has completed then either:

1) the market continues to climb, thereby validating the alt count (or into a more complex correction) 
2) A correction occurs after wave 5, then the downtrend resumes to compete a very large 5 waves down. The consequences will be enormous as this will have to be the first of two 5 wave legs down.

Cheers

OWG


----------



## OzWaveGuy

potato said:


> thanx ozwaveguy, il study your count now




Potato

BHP/XMJ may have finished the wave 4 triangle on the 10th. 5 small waves down is evident on the XMJ, so watch the next few days to see where the correction goes.

Cheers

OWG


----------



## Joe Blow

Just a note that I have removed the poll that was originally attached to this thread as it no longer seemed to be relevant considering the direction that the thread has taken.


----------



## salsem

Hi.OzW

Whereas some measures''taken''with springs we could stay this counting? ... 
the conditional is a must! 
ps. I write as an excuse to have Italian ... 
elliottien hello. 
salsem


----------



## OzWaveGuy

wavepicker said:


> Hi Ozwaveguy,
> 
> I mucked around with this stuff (Golden Spiral) about 8 years ago and wrote some code in VB based on instructions in Fischers book "Fibonacci Applications for Traders"....




Right, there's always going to be variance in how the fib arc would end up and what waves are crossed at the start/end. 

I'm looking to see if there are any patterns that are specifically time related - for example: if wave 3 is extended, should I do something different v's wave 1 extended or if the C leg is longer than the A leg etc.

What's most interesting is there are dozens of relationships that are evident in a 5-3  structure - I suspect there are dependencies on the amount of sub-divisions and which wave extended etc since this will impact time - hopefully patterns can be found that could accurately plan out a wave count. I'll play with the %R and fib relationships to see if there repeatable patterns. If I find anything more I'll drop a post in here

cheers

OWG


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Hi EWers

The market action since the break of the wave 4 triangle didn't look quite right to me so i took a closer look at the triangle on the XAO and XMJ. The wave structure counts much better with a very small wave e (circle) at the end of the triangle, and wave d (circle) looks much better in proportion to the rest of the triangle waves. Triangle wave e's only have to retrace a minimal amount to qualify.

If correct then, this will better help identify the end of the 5th wave, which may not be too far away now.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

And for the XMJ - wave e (circle) counts as a triangle itself. Wave e triangles are permitted (Glenn Neely) and it's very useful to identify them early on so the wave 5 wave count isn't adversely influenced. I'll still be looking for any signs of alternate counts that may invalidate the current count as i want to get the end of this final leg as accurate as possible.


----------



## potato

BHP

A nice bounce off $20 today. Heres an alternative count to BHP


----------



## OzWaveGuy

potato said:


> BHP
> 
> A nice bounce off $20 today. Heres an alternative count to BHP




Right, $20 on the mark huh - Imagine that! 

For your chart above, there's a cluster of price activity through October that looks like a reasonable wave size -  you haven't accounted for it?


----------



## potato

oki heres that count agian, theres a patch of yellow oval that i couldnt count, cos i only have eod. Is there something invalid about this count? 

Do u use the Glen Neely method all the way down to the monowaves?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

potato said:


> oki heres that count agian, theres a patch of yellow oval that i couldnt count, cos i only have eod. Is there something invalid about this count?
> 
> Do u use the Glen Neely method all the way down to the monowaves?




EOD Data is ok for a bigger term view. 

Some comments:

You have x3 situations where Waves 2 and 4 overlap - this fails the EW rule that wave 4 price action should never move into the price range of wave 2. You need to re-label the chart.

Whilst waves can overlap it will only happen in wave C's, Wave 5's (as a ending diagonal - 3 wave structure) or sometimes in wave 1 (ending impulse - 5 wave structure).

Hope this helps

As for Glenn Neely, The area that his text helped with was understanding corrections. Before reading his 'Mastering Elliott Wave' text, I was scratching my head on numerous occasions on why my count was wrong. Even after the market action it was still hard to understand where the problem was.

Neely helped specifically with corrections and advanced labeling - Chapter 11.  There were some chapters that I thought were unnecessarily complex (eg Chapter 3) and could have been simplified considerably.

Triangles, Irregular flats, Wave relationships, double and triple corrections were certainly areas that contained value for me. I still find myself going back to read up on them.


----------



## potato

yea forgot about that rule when i labelled the smaller waves, im gona go read chapter 11 in neelys book now  thanx. 
Do u only have one count for BHP?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

potato said:


> yea forgot about that rule when i labelled the smaller waves, im gona go read chapter 11 in neelys book now  thanx.
> Do u only have one count for BHP?




The XMJ and XAO appear to be following relatively closely at the moment - The posting yesterday on the "How Low can the all ords go" thread goes thru my logic and contains 3 scenarios. The XMJ and to some extent BHP should play along.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Hi EWers

Thought I'd share a possible count on the XAO 5min chart.

As discussed here --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=366078&postcount=5892

it appeared that 5 waves (i)->(v) were complete as of tuesday - so the next step was to identify the impending correction that was to follow.

There was a small a-b-c correction yesterday finishing at (a) on the chart which could certainly be the end of it. The push up today was retraced by just over 61.8%, however it appears that it corrected in 5 small waves.

Therefore it's very possible that the correction of the leg that started last friday is still not complete, and an expanded flat is unfolding.

If true, then more downside to come to complete wave b (circle) then a final push into wave c (circle) should occur. This should complete part of the much larger wave (4) correction.

I find understanding the 2 possible scenarios that may unfold helps significantly in the planning for the next day's trade setups. A break above the high (labelled as (b) on the chart) will invalidate the expanded flat scenario as I will assume a further 5 waves up will unfold (the first 2 waves now complete as part of today's market action).


----------



## salsem

Hi,...

this is my view on SPX daily
Who gives me his opinion? 
excuse the language


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Hi EWers

As discussed here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=366789&postcount=165

A possible expanded flat may have completed on the XAO today. The (b) wave pushed further than previously discussed and the (c) wave down has completed in 5 waves. If correct then another 5 waves up needs to occur over the next several days and this will complete one leg of a larger wave (4) correction.

Alternatively, there could be more downside potential if the much larger wave (3) subdivides as show in the 2nd chart.

It should be noted - there are several ways to interpret the current short term wave structure. The top 2 considerations are provided below. The 3rd option could be that a wave (4) triangle is forming and wave b of the triangle will head to a new low.


----------



## johnnyg

Here is my amateur Elliot Wave Analyst on WPL.

Looks to of completed 5 waves down with waves 1,3 & 4 subdividing into a a-b-c pattern. Wave 1 and Wave 5 are almost exactly the same length which would suggest that we are now in an a-b-c correction. Wave 2 retraced ~ 61% (wave 2's tend to retrace between 50-70% of wave 1). Wave 4 retraced ~ 32% (wave 4's tend to retrace between 30-50% of wave 3). Id now be looking for a retrace to ~$30 (Is there a way to calculate the length of the corrective wave b?) before a wave c back up towards $40 as wave a & c tend to be the same length.


Look forward to some input.

Cheers Johnny.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

johnnyg said:


> Here is my amateur Elliot Wave Analyst on WPL.
> 
> Looks to of completed 5 waves down with waves 1,3 & 4 subdividing into a a-b-c pattern.




Hi Johnny

Some thoughts for you to consider....

Under EW, impulse waves will contain 5 smaller waves. So waves 1,3 and 5 should be comprised of 5 smaller waves. In the chart posted, waves 1 and 3 have 3 waves - this would be considered incorrect labeling

Using zig-zags in your charting package to identify waves will be hit and miss at best. Feel free to use zig-zags to help identify possible waves, but you'll need to manually identify them to get it right (at least that is my experience)

I also suggest you look at the overall sector index or oil charts and analyze them as well. Individual stocks can be hard for EWers to analyze as EW is more accurate on indexes where mass psychology can be better measured.

For example I will analyze the XMJ and BHP together to determine entry and exit points.


----------



## johnnyg

Thanks for the pointers Oz, I manually identified all waves/zig zags on the above chart and will be for awhile yet.

Currently im only starting on the basic rules of EW from Radges book 'Adaptive Analysis' which include -

1 - Wave 2 can never retrace below the start of wave 1
2 - Wave 3 is usually the longest, but can never be the shortest
3 - Wave 4 can never retrace and overlap the top of wave 1

And the guidelines 

1 - Impulsive waves tend to be smooth and strong where corrective waves tend to be choppy and messy
2 - wave 2 tends to retrace between 50-70% of wave 1
3 - wave 4 tends to retrace between 30-50% of wave 3
4 - wave 1 and wave 5 tend to be the same length
5 - Correct wave a and corrective wave c tend to be the same length

Id be interested in seeing your chart of WPL if you dont mind and where labeled wrongly.

Cheers.  (back to read from the start of the thread)


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Hi Johnny take a look below.  As discussed above individual stocks can be hard to plot against EW. Indexes are far easier.

I've assumed that there is a wave 5 failure, hence the top is slightly below the actual top pricewise. Otherwise, I would have labeled the entire move as a series of a-b-c corrections - which i don't believe is correct.

The WPL tracks very closely to the energy sector, and I found the energy sector was easier to analyze. It too had a 5th wave failure, but only very slightly.

Taking a looking at the longer term chart going back to 1986, I can see a 5 wave advance with a series of subdivisions. The mid point of the previous wave 4 (a double flat with a joining X wave, starting Oct 97 to Mar 2003) is at $10. So this could be a possible target should 5 waves complete, followed by another 5 waves down after an a-b-c correction.

cheers

OWG


----------



## johnnyg

Thanks very much for the post Oz, I can see your thinking now as what I have labeled as a wave 5 bottom is actually the end of wave 3. Just going off what you said in your previous post - ' _Under EW, impulse waves will contain 5 smaller waves. So waves 1,3 and 5 should be comprised of 5 smaller waves. ' _Now I see that you have marked 5 smaller waves which make up Impulse wave 3, however your Wave 1 is not marked and there doesnt seem to be 5 smaller waves that make up the Impulse Wave 1, can you explain this otherwise wouldn't it be considered incorrect labeling or invalidate the count?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Anyone of you keen EWers want to have a stab at what is possibly happening on the XAO?

Today's market action appeared to have or almost completed a very well known pattern, if correct, it will highlight 2 possible scenarios that could unfold in the near term (1 or 2 weeks). It will also highlight in the very near term what should happen in the next few trading days as well.

I suggest using the 5minute chart of the XAO and look at the market since the low on the 21st Nov. 

Will post something later tonight or tomorrow morning before market open


----------



## wavepicker

Gooday OZ,


Don't have access to 5 minute XAO Bar Chart, but have attached my take on ASX200 Hourly chart.

Not sure if it's what you see, but looks to be moving higher in the days ahead as per EW count into a wave C upward

Cheers


----------



## OzWaveGuy

johnnyg said:


> however your Wave 1 is not marked and there doesnt seem to be 5 smaller waves that make up the Impulse Wave 1, can you explain this otherwise wouldn't it be considered incorrect labeling or invalidate the count?




It's a hard one - it can be counted as 5 if you take a small wave 1 and 2 on the first day of the decline. Or wave (1) could contain a 5th wave failure - so possibly ending 7 days later a little higher than the current wave (1) marked on the chart

On the XEJ, wave (1) can be counted as five waves - hence the importance of looking at the index to help with the individual stock wave count.

Hope this helps in clarifying wave (1)

Cheers 

OWG


----------



## johnnyg

Thanks for your reply Oz, can certainly the W1 count alot better on the XEJ.

Cheers


----------



## OzWaveGuy

As discussed last night, there is a specific pattern that has been playing out on the XAO over the last couple of days.

A small triangle appears complete after five waves down (i-v). If true, there should be another small 5 waves down to complete the b (circle) leg. Perhaps to 3350 or a Fibonacci support level (61.8% retracement 3382 or 76.8% retracement 3313).

So what happens after wave b (circle) finishes? Either a new short term high will form into wave c (circle) possibly 3800 or higher and a more complex correction could play out to higher levels.

A push higher after wave b (circle) but not to a new short term high. Instead, a leg lower to form part of a larger wave (4) correction.

The primary objective right now is to look for the end of wave b (circle) after 5 waves down (or even an ending diagonal) then we can start to look at the next leg.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

The wave (b) triangle ended a little sooner than anticipated, so I have labelled a small five waves down I-II-III-IV after the completion of the wave (b) triangle. 

Today's market action has completed wave i down, completed wave ii up and commenced wave iii down. The target levels discussed yesterday are in play and 3350 seems a likely target to complete wave b circle.

Trying to find the top of wave ii today so I could open a short position was a little frustrating for me after a few false starts - in the end I didn't end up in a position as I had to go out for a few hrs. The main problem I had was perceiving wave ii up would be a short affair because the S&P500 was down 25points last night, so I suspected there would be high selling pressure early in the day. I should have simply followed the wave count instead of trying to second guess it.   Hope others did a little better.

Have a good weekend

Cheers OWG


----------



## OzWaveGuy

wavepicker said:


> Gooday OZ,
> 
> 
> Don't have access to 5 minute XAO Bar Chart, but have attached my take on ASX200 Hourly chart.
> 
> Not sure if it's what you see, but looks to be moving higher in the days ahead as per EW count into a wave C upward
> 
> Cheers




Hi WP,

I usually struggle with the futures charts for a short term view. Based on the recent market action, there could be a leg to the downside - maybe a forming a wide a-b-c zig-zag with a triangle for b?  before the leg up occurs?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

OzWaveGuy said:


> The wave (b) triangle ended a little sooner than anticipated, so I have labelled a small five waves down I-II-III-IV after the completion of the wave (b) triangle.





It appears the proposed wave count on the last leg of b circle ended earlier - at the end of wave i on the last chart I last posted. Hence, the final wave b circle comprises of 5 waves down, a Triangle, and then five very small waves down to complete the correction.

There are still several ways to count the whole move from the 21st of Nov - however the simplest way to view the countertrend move is as a 5 waves up and a corresponding 3 wave correction down. Another 5 waves up is required to complete the upwards correction (at a minimum) - there may be other interpretations to consider as well that I'll cover in more detail in the next few days.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

I thought I'd post a couple of charts of the current Wave counts on the XAO. 

These are from 2days back. The daily chart has pretty much being playing out as described back in early October with wave counts unfolding in 5 waves down.

From here I believe we need to enter a period of consolidation as a wave (4) countertrend move. Wave 4 could play out in several ways including heading to a new low for wave B of a triangle scenario.

The short term wave count does imply further upside potential into the target areas in the 2nd chart. If the minimum target area (3900) isn't breached and the index reverses and heads lower - then I would look at the possibility of a B wave in a triangle.

Ideally I'd like to see a 38.2% correction of wave (3) which is around 4300 points, but it's unclear based on the short term wave count if this will eventuate. 

As a tip, keep an eye out for triangles as wave 4's or B waves. They can help guide you on market trend changes. For example the small (b) wave on the b circle correction on chart 2 is a triangle. 5 very small waves followed, before a change in trend occurred.

Cheers 

OWG


----------



## OzWaveGuy

The sideways direction of the XAO should shortly come to an end. 

The push up from the 5th has been rather sluggish and the wave counts can still be read in several ways. 

It is possible that the move down from the 28th Nov high could be wave 'a' of a triangle, and the move up from the 5th Dec an unfolding 'b' wave - so I'm watching for further sideways movement and overlapping waves in the near term. This would be disappointing as a lead into Christmas as the holiday season lead up tends to have a positive effect on the markets 

5 waves up from the 5th Dec (wave b circle) can be counted, and we are currently correcting in wave (ii). Alternation between waves ii and iv is very evident in terms of shape and price. There's a high probability that there's more downside to complete wave (ii) tomorrow to around 3465 (76.8% retracement of wave (i) up) before turning up.

However, remain cautious and look for a small 5 wave decline that could mark completion of wave (ii)


----------



## wavepicker

Great charts and analysis Oz,

A pleasure to read and follow.

Cheers


----------



## OzWaveGuy

wavepicker said:


> Great charts and analysis Oz,
> 
> A pleasure to read and follow.
> 
> Cheers




Thanks for the feedback WP. Would be good to get another EWer more active in this forum 

Fixed up your inbox yet? Seems it was full a couple of weeks back and was rejecting PMs


----------



## OzWaveGuy

OzWaveGuy said:


> The sideways direction of the XAO should shortly come to an end.
> 
> The push up from the 5th has been rather sluggish and the wave counts can still be read in several ways.....
> 
> .....5 waves up from the 5th Dec (wave b circle) can be counted, and we are currently correcting in wave (ii). Alternation between waves ii and iv is very evident in terms of shape and price. There's a high probability that there's more downside to complete wave (ii) tomorrow to around 3465 (76.8% retracement of wave (i) up) before turning up.
> 
> However, remain cautious and look for a small 5 wave decline that could mark completion of wave (ii)




Friday was a right and wrong day. The market hit the sighted levels and bounced, then fell further. This overly long correction from the wave 'a' circle high needs to end very soon. Once a temporary bottom is in place, the key question is: How long and high will the current correction go? I believe, the limited number of trading days before XMAS should be fairly positive and will possibly provide some insights.

I also regularly analyze BHP and XMJ and both need to climb higher to complete a double zig-zag correction as part of a possible wave (4) triangle as well.

For the EWers reading this thread, I'll spend some time during the coming week on indicators that can help with EW counts that you may want to consider.

Cheers

OWG


----------



## Porper

OzWaveGuy said:


> Thanks for the feedback WP. Would be good to get another EWer more active in this forum




Yes, it is strange how E.Wavers are staying away from this thread, or any other regarding E.Wave.


----------



## tech/a

Porper said:


> Yes, it is strange how E.Wavers are staying away from this thread, or any other regarding E.Wave.




They are?


----------



## BBand

You guys are never wrong

The trend is developing - if its not this then its that, and if its that does not happen - then it soon will, if not its something else----------until it happens and the count is proved correct

Well done guys, we've done it again

Just kidding, I'm sure EW has as much merit as any other form of TA, just that the penny has not dropped yet for some of us.

EW reminds me of trying to find your way to the centre of a maze

I'd like to give it another go and look forward to the help OWG is promising to give - it might offer more clarity to the indicators that I use

Good work OWG


----------



## potato

Hi OWG is this how u see BHP atm, or do u mean that green wave 4 has not ended and we are in a big triangle?


----------



## Porper

tech/a said:


> They are?




Whiskers.


----------



## Nick Radge

> The trend is developing - if its not this then its that, and if its that does not happen - then it soon will, if not its something else----------until it happens and the count is proved correct




Think of EW like you would view a moving average cross over. Until the cross over occurs, the trend is in place. The same applies with Elliott Wave, however, with EW we know that after a 5-wave decline there is a _*reasonable*_ chance that the trend is about to change. With a moving average crossover, we simply have no idea how far the trend can go before the cross occurs, nor do we know what length MA's to use. EW doesn't concern itself with these issues.

It's not a do-all be-all method, as Kennas continues to remind us - a strong trend can subdivide causing an extension of the trend. However, there are still well defined levels from which to initiate or defend a position.

Is EW required to be successful?

Absolutely not.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Some additional thoughts for consideration....

1) I personally find EW is about improving the accuracy of investing and trading and complementing Tech Analysis that one undertakes (in any timeframe, which is one of the biggest benefits). In-addition Fibonacci is key tool for EW analysis.

2) EW provides a set of predefined patterns that occur in the market - understand the patterns and you have a better chance to pick up on what's going on and more importantly what is about to happen. If you have a good memory for patterns, then this will be a benefit. For me, I don't have a great memory so I had to work a little harder.

3) In my personal experience and talking to other investors and traders I find a basic understanding of EW may not be helpful, and could be detrimental to one's trading (You probably wouldn't see a doctor that sorta understands medicine). I hear a lot of: I have a friend that used EW for some years but gave it up - EW is not for everyone.

4) Having a solid understanding of basic EW is crucial in moving to the more advanced topics. This is where many fail and will give up - as it 'appears' very complex. Reality is that EW is a set of repeating patterns that re-occur at different timeframes all the time. 

A few years ago when I first looked at EW - I can still remember thinking it looked like a crazy type of indexing system you'd find in a book, utilizing different numerical and alphabetical symbols depending on the chapter, section, sub-section, paragraph you were on. Likewise, If the book were the market, a little being written each day, you just have to work out where the sentences, paragraphs, sub-sections etc are starting and ending. There can be obvious clues when something is about to end and begin.

Because EW is based on social mood, another benefit is being able to have a better grasp of longer term social changes as well. This may benefit some more than others.

Cheers 

OWG


----------



## OzWaveGuy

potato said:


> Hi OWG is this how u see BHP atm, or do u mean that green wave 4 has not ended and we are in a big triangle?




Hi Potato

The count I have is slightly different, however, the upwards part-completed a-b-c correction is how I have labelled the current move.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

A quick update on today.

The move upwards today 'could' be the start of the breakout of the current sideways trend. Although there was a retracement after lunch today, and it does look like there could be a further retracement tomorrow to complete a possible 2nd wave.

I have already placed Fibonnanci grid over the current move to look at where it could take us. I previously discussed 3900 as a minimum target area and the top of the fib grid lands on almost on the 3900 mark - so this helps to map out a little more of the market story using different tools together with EW. More on this later.....

Cheers 

OWG


----------



## BBand

Hi OWG,
Thank you for your thoughts on EW. 
They are very helpful and I can relate to them with my own method of trading.

I have an open mind regarding trading methods, for me they all work otherwise people would not use them - its just that we all have our own preferences and thats how it should be.

Find a method you are comfortable with and there is a good chance you will be successful, (provided you get the main aspect of trading right.)

I aim to understand as many of the popular ,methods of TA as possible - after all we are ultimately just trading the psychology of the crowd.

We all know that no matter what method we use, all signals are not born equal, and I want to know what other people are thinking and want to trade with the crowd, preferrably before them.

I base my trading on confluence between different forms of analysis whether it be various forms of support/ resistance, dow theory, candlestick patterns etc
The more traders likely to trade at a certain level - the better

AWG can use indicators in association with EW and I really appreciate his offer to show us how he does it and at the same time hopefully I will aquire a much better understanding of EW 

My trading is based on indicators


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Nick Radge said:


> Think of EW like you would view a moving average cross over. Until the cross over occurs, the trend is in place. The same applies with Elliott Wave, however, with EW we know that after a 5-wave decline there is a _*reasonable*_ chance that the trend is about to change. With a moving average crossover, we simply have no idea how far the trend can go before the cross occurs, nor do we know what length MA's to use. EW doesn't concern itself with these issues.
> 
> It's not a do-all be-all method, as Kennas continues to remind us - a strong trend can subdivide causing an extension of the trend. However, there are still well defined levels from which to initiate or defend a position.
> 
> Is EW required to be successful?
> 
> Absolutely not.




Interesting perspective there Nick. 

Between you and OZ Wave Guy we are getting good if not the best EW information.
Cheers..


----------



## BBand

Hi Nick, 
I appreciate what you are saying - but when it comes to indicators - its horses for courses - its picking the right horse (s) that is the problem for most of us.

With EW its pure price action and that's the major attraction for me

It also provides a good insight as to where we are within a trend, if we can pick the waves/corrections accurately - which is my problem.

If Oz can show how he uses indicators in defining a wave etc - that will be a major step forward for me.

I understand the theory behind EW and its distinct advantages - but I could never make it "work"

Now I think I am in with a chance again

I'm looking forward to Oz's input, when he's ready - no hurry

Thanks in anticipation
Peter


----------



## Cartman

Nick Radge said:


> Is EW required to be successful?
> 
> Absolutely not.





Totally respect your abilities Nick    Just wondering how you and others might relate to my perception of E/W theory  

You dont need to count to 5 or 7 or 9 waves etc etc  ABC's are not required There are only really three waves    Everything is a combination of three waves!!  Why? Because   the first wave (thats the only one you have to decide on) is either up or down ----- If the first wave is up   then the second wave has to be down !!   then the third wave has to be up otherwise its still the second wave!!    Third wave is then the opposite of the second wave           Cycle finished !                     The third wave then becomes the FIRST wave of the next cycle !!      

1st step ---- Choose the time frame you wish to trade in then apply the above noting new highs/lows ----  Simple yet effective.


----------



## Porper

Cartman said:


> There are only really three waves    Everything is a combination of three waves!!  Why? Because   the first wave (thats the only one you have to decide on) is either up or down ----- If the first wave is up   then the second wave has to be down !!




Well then it wouldn't really be E.Wave, you are just working on the basis that an impulse will be corrected by a counter move, followed by an impulse again.

How would you set targets or even have an idea when the first impulse has finished ?

However you are correct up to a point when you say it doesn't matter whether it would be a wave C or 3, both are tradeable, apart from the fact that using fibs and knowing the count will give you a target zone, also wave 3's tend to be longer than C's, handy to know in advance where you are expecting the move to end.


----------



## Cartman

Porper said:


> How would you set targets or even have an idea when the first impulse has finished ?
> 
> .





Hi Porp,   Targets are a manipulation of our own (mis) conception of what is likely to happen --------------- self fulfilling prophesies of previous  price action    

E/W is more a study of human psych than anything  (which I agree is very predictable)                

Matter of fact    the whole market is a complex arrangement of  Human greed in  action             If you understand how greed operates  you will most likely become very wealthy from the market              

Kind of funny really !!


----------



## tech/a

Cartman.

Have a read of  
"Dynamic Trading "
By Robert Miner.

Would be helpful.


----------



## Cartman

tech/a said:


> Cartman.
> 
> Have a read of
> "Dynamic Trading "
> By Robert Miner.
> 
> Would be helpful.




 Hi Tech  appreciate your posts.   Not a great reader and already have some concrete views of human psych with regard to E/W       Happy to discuss stuff but not happy to read stuff (time short for personal reasons )  Give me the gist of the book and I will give you my opinion for what its worth


----------



## tech/a

Cartman said:


> Hi Tech  appreciate your posts.   Not a great reader and already have some concrete views of human psych with regard to E/W       Happy to discuss stuff but not happy to read stuff (time short for personal reasons )  Give me the gist of the book and I will give you my opinion for what its worth




See if you cant read a little of these to get a gist of the book.

http://www.amazon.com/review/produc...cm_cr_acr_txt?_encoding=UTF8&showViewpoints=1


I look forward to further enlightenment with regard to *CARTMAN WAVE ANALYSIS.
*


----------



## Cartman

MMmmmmm       OK I'll post it anyway for those interested -----

In  abbreviated form   

Rules --------- Three waves only!!!! -----  Wave 3 of any given cycle becomes wave one of the next cycle

If the high of wave two (second cycle) is higher than  wave two of the previous cycle ------ buy near the bottom of the next wave three  (if the bottom of this wave three is higher than the previous wave 3 bottom        

vica verca for shorts 


no rocket science required

the trade has more credibility if the longer time frames match the time frame you are trading in           ie 4 hour is long and you are trading the 1 minute which is a long ------ load up !!!!! 


If you are looking for the outlier move worth 1000 pips disregard everything above -------  (much more profit in consistent modest returns) --------- 

Take half your profit as required and set a B/E stop loss on remainder and relax

very simplified version above but some will  appreciate it for its simplicity

Just read your above post Tech   "Cartman  Wave Analysis" .........    I smiled -------- love your work!!


----------



## Boggo

I have attached a chart of FMG (to 25th June) that I believe was Elliott Wave poetry.

While most of the supporters of FMG were piling in on the new breakout the Robert Miner process of trying to establish which wave the breakout was occurring on was also a factor.

Wave 3, go long, wave 5 caution.

How many were exiting their long and preparing to short on the 25th June ?
Not many I think (I waited until the wave 4 low, reluctant to go against the herd )

The rest shall we say is history.
.


----------



## Cartman

Boggo said:


> I have attached a chart of FMG (to 25th June) that I believe was Elliott Wave poetry.
> 
> While most of the supporters of FMG were piling in on the new breakout the Robert Miner process of trying to establish which wave the breakout was occurring on was also a factor.
> 
> Wave 3, go long, wave 5 caution.
> 
> How many were exiting their long and preparing to short on the 25th June ?
> Not many I think (I waited until the wave 4 low, reluctant to go against the herd )
> 
> The rest shall we say is history.
> .




Hey Bog,   Luv your stuff on the marriage thead ----- funny man!!

Using the "Cartman Wave Analysis"  (thanks Tech)   you would have been short on around 15 th July at $9 +     nice  ------- almost an Outlier in hindsight!!    And that is working off the daily chart  -------  

FX and futs you can work off the minute or less charts !!


----------



## tech/a

Agree here is a similar AGET chart with Fibbonarsy attached.


----------



## Boggo

tech/a said:


> Cartman.
> 
> Have a read of
> "Dynamic Trading "
> By Robert Miner.
> 
> Would be helpful.




I really like his no nonsense approach too tech/a.

Someone pointed me to some good and simply explained wave theory on the Elwave site some time ago.

Worth a read I think.

http://www.prognosis.nl/elwave/faq/principle/index.html


----------



## Cartman

tech/a said:


> See if you cant read a little of these to get a gist of the book.
> 
> http://www.amazon.com/review/produc...cm_cr_acr_txt?_encoding=UTF8&showViewpoints=1
> 
> 
> I look forward to further enlightenment with regard to *CARTMAN WAVE ANALYSIS.
> *





OK Nothing there that I didnt know but its interesting that Miner admits that (QUOTE)"Elliott's "wave counts" work about 50% of the time"

Seriously guys     Toss a coin !!!

Higher highs/Lower lows and MA's will give you the same story without the theory and headaches      Im not saying its not a valid analysis tool but way too much weight is given to its usefulness in my opinion ----- Ill go away now cause I suspect Im not required on this thread lol


----------



## wayneL

Cartman said:


> OK Nothing there that I didnt know but its interesting that Miner admits that (QUOTE)"Elliott's "wave counts" work about 50% of the time"
> 
> Seriously guys     Toss a coin !!!
> 
> Higher highs/Lower lows and MA's will give you the same story without the theory and headaches      Im not saying its not a valid analysis tool but way too much weight is given to its usefulness in my opinion ----- Ill go away now cause I suspect Im not required on this thread lol




Eeeeeeeeee! I said something similar ages ago and got seriously flamed... still have the bandages on from that one.

Take cover!!!


----------



## Cartman

wayneL said:


> Eeeeeeeeee! I said something similar ages ago and got seriously flamed... still have the bandages on from that one.
> 
> Take cover!!!




OOpSY !!! Ive had a couple of ales + I'm new here so go easy you guys - ----- my old man is here too but Im not saying who he is --- He might fight with me ----- NOT ------  lol---

The old man says you know what you r talking about Wayne so Im on your side 

Seriously though, that chart on FMG that was mentioned above somewhere   I could count at least 10 waves between the low in Jan to the high in June   Y complicate it with stuff --- 123, 123,  etc    Lower high, lower low,  mmmm....   might be time to sell !!   

Not trying to be smart  just the way i see it.


----------



## tech/a

Cartman said:


> Not trying to be smart  just the way I see it.





I have been where you are.

The dynamics of Elliott (One of 3 dynamic forms of analysis I am aware of) is what frustrates those who have a brief look at it. I was one of these.
How on earth could a wave count alter during a price move?

On closer investigation it soon became clear that the ability of the analysis to be so dynamic and alter as price took its course was in fact its greatest strength.

I see it as a painting.
You start with an idea and as the idea is set on a canvas it takes shape.
You can ask many during the development of the painting what it depicts.
The more experienced will be able to look at it and say that if this and that occurs during the painting then it will end up like X. Continued glances at the painting will either confirm or negate the ideas of those interested in the development of the painting.As the painting matures so to does the clarity.

Elliott is no different.
Its dynamics can be used to great advantage,by those who choose to understand its application and indeed its ability to morph into the presented price action over time.

Rigidity in analysis will frustrate the exponent.


----------



## Frank D

Elliot wave is NOT Dynamic!!!!!

The only thing dynamic in the market is Time, because time is the only thing that moves forward.

Elliot has no ‘time’ parameters in its methodology


----------



## wayneL

tech/a said:


> I have been where you are.
> 
> The dynamics of Elliott (One of 3 dynamic forms of analysis I am aware of) is what frustrates those who have a brief look at it. I was one of these.
> How on earth could a wave count alter during a price move?
> 
> On closer investigation it soon became clear that the ability of the analysis to be so dynamic and alter as price took its course was in fact its greatest strength.
> 
> I see it as a painting.
> You start with an idea and as the idea is set on a canvas it takes shape.
> You can ask many during the development of the painting what it depicts.
> The more experienced will be able to look at it and say that if this and that occurs during the painting then it will end up like X. Continued glances at the painting will either confirm or negate the ideas of those interested in the development of the painting.As the painting matures so to does the clarity.
> 
> Elliott is no different.
> Its dynamics can be used to great advantage,by those who choose to understand its application and indeed its ability to morph into the presented price action over time.
> 
> Rigidity in analysis will frustrate the exponent.



That's all fair comment. 

The thing is, the same attitude can be taken into many forms of geometric/time & price type analysis. One must even doff their cap to Gann analysis if used in the same way (rather than rigid prediction). Just another useful way to toss the coin.


----------



## tech/a

*Frank* Ive seen time introduced into Elliott from both Miner and Poser.

But wether it is used or not (Time in Elliott analysis) in the formulation of analysis there is no doubt that wave counts progress through time.The evolution of a wave count will progress through time and alter through time. As such I see it as dynamic.

Do you see it as static?

*Wayne* that is true and I was actually thinking that as I wrote it up.


----------



## Frank D

Look at the seconds hand on a watch and you notice it moves in a 
dynamic motion forward. 

We all know what time it will be in 1 hour. We all know tomorrow is a 
new day. Next Monday begins a new week, and the first of the month is 
the start of the ‘new’ month.

We all know what the Time will be in the future. Time is the only constant ‘dynamic’ motion in the markets and Technical analysis.

Price isn’t dynamic!

The only thing we know about Price is, where it has been and where it is now.

We don’t know where Price will be in 1 hour or in 1 week.

The major component of EW is based on Price. It’s based on previous
 highs and lows, and then the math is introduced afterwards as price 
action unfolds.

There is nothing wrong with that because as traders we all wait until 
things unfold and then act upon them. We trade with the trend as
 breakouts, or Thrust patterns from central zones outward, or we 
trade against the trend when markets rotate back towards central 
zones from outer extremes.

EW doesn’t have anything to do with Time as part of its core 
methodology, and don’t included the notion of price traveling over a 
distance (time), as part of it’s theory.  

They are two separate things all together.

There needs to be a generic template that encompasses the 
critical components of all technical analysis:- support/resistance, Price 
and TIME.

A generic template that any user of the methodology can apply
 without causing confusion, which is what a lot users of EW find, as
 it’s missing some of the most critical components of T/A.

And especially one of the most important parameters when using a 
dynamic methodology :- Time


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Frank D said:


> Elliot wave is NOT Dynamic!!!!!
> 
> The only thing dynamic in the market is Time, because time is the only thing that moves forward.
> 
> Elliot has no ‘time’ parameters in its methodology




I have some specific thoughts on the 'time' topic, but let me ask a question: Frank, do you have some specific ideas or suggestions on how time measurements/calculations could be made within EW analysis?


----------



## Frank D

It's obvious that Time has to be multi-layered over a number of 
timeframes, so you can define your Primary, Secondary and 
intermediated trends.

But I think EW wave counts need to be constantly revalidated as Time
 moves forward, not by previous highs and lows, but by previous highs 
and lows within the ‘Time’ after it has completed.

For example let’s use 1 week as a Time parameter as a lesser timeframe

The new Week begins and the market moves down 3 day makes a low
 and swings up 2 days.

A normal EW trader will mark that as a lesser wave.  In my opinion that 
wave shouldn’t be marked until that Week has completed at the end of 
Friday, as this will validate the wave and the completion of the Timeframe.

The trader should then be using the previous ‘week’s waves', as
 resistance and support, and also the midpoint as then trend guide to 
trade the current timeframe.

That price action would be lesser waves within Weekly timeframe, which is part of  the higher timeframe ( Monthly).

The lows in November aren’t validated until the last day of the month, 
and then should be counted for the current month.

Because what nomally happens is that a low in a monthly timeframe 
can swing upwards 3 days, the trader thinks that’s the low but 
then continues lower once again without completing the UP swing, as it 
has hit the previous resistance zone from the previous timeframe. 

It becomes confusing as the EW trader has to recalculate the wave counts 
in the current timeframe, when he or she shouldn't until the timeframe completes and validates the waves.

The EW trader simply calculates the waves at the end of each timeframe, not during the current timeframe.

Things traders need to remember:- Time trends and TIME rotates.

This where often your see a 1 week timeframe trends in 1 direction, but 
then reverse at the start of the next timeframe:- TOP to Bottom  
Monday into Friday, and bottom to Top :- Monday into Friday.

The same applies to Monthly timeframe:- rotate inward and extend  outward based on TIME.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Thanks Frank. Do you have a specific example that illustrates the points you have raised? 

I do agree that EW by itself does not contain a methodology around 'time' and I believe many of the EW practitioners have acknowledged that EW can best be used by complementing existing technical analysis methods (if implemented correctly)


----------



## Frank D

*Chart below is the recent  Daily price action of the S&P*

October ends and November begins and you have the 50% level
 for November:- Resistance and trend guide. (yellow), which is the
 midpoint of the previous Month.

Each blue box is each Weekly timeframe, just to illustrate a lesser 
timeframe.

Each red line is the midpoint of the previous week.

We notice in the first week price moves down into the previous Weekly 
50% level  (last Week in October) finds support.

2nd week :- Moves up and then rejects down from the Weekly 50%
 level from the previous week, which is part of the trend from of the 
higher timeframe downtrend in November.

*More often than not each extension outward is 100% of the
 previous timeframe from the new 50% level.*

*The trend guide is moving with Time (50%), and the extension is moving with Time*

The trend ends once price moves back above the 50% level in the last 
week of the month in this instance.

If the trader thinks the market is going to go higher:- then the trader 
should be trading from the Weekly 50% level the following week, but 
more importantly price should be trading above the Monthly 50% level, 
which won’t occur until this monthly timeframe ends and then new one 
begins.

The trader wants to trade the trends from the midpoints outward :- thrust patterns.

But the important part is the trader’s bias changes with the end of the current timeframe and start of the new timeframe.

The trader wants to be trading on the side of the midpoints. The higher the timeframe the greater the trend outward.

Each of these moves are lesser patterns of the higher timeframes:- Quarterly and Yearly.

As you can see this has nothing to do with EW, but *you are now introducing Time parameters into the model.*


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Frank D said:


> *Chart below is the recent  Daily price action of the S&P*




Thanks for the chart. I believe I understand the logic used and looks to work very well on the S&P. Do you think the same results can be obtained for other indexes like the XAO or XMJ?

I tried using the same process on the XAO, but found the 50% levels don't appear to act in the same way as the S&P500. Is this system unique to the S&P or are other % levels more apparent on different indexes in your experience?

Cheers

OWG


----------



## OzWaveGuy

The XAO could very possibly finish a complex correction today (or even as of 3:33pm)

For those EWers who haven't yet read the material that Boggo (thanks) posted - you should. It provides quite a good overview of basic EW. It's highly likely that one of the patterns described in the material has completed today. 

if you take a look at the market from 10am on the 1-12-08 to now on a 15min chart you should see something like the image below....

http://www.prognosis.nl/elwave/faq/principle/principle2.html#patterns

A little painful to identify, but many complex corrections will be hard to identify until they are nearly finished.

The next few trading hours from today and tomorrow morning should prove whether this complex correction is correct (no pun intended)


----------



## Cartman

OzWaveGuy said:


> The XAO could very possibly finish a complex correction today (or even as of 3:33pm)
> 
> For those EWers who haven't yet read the material that Boggo (thanks) posted - you should. It provides quite a good overview of basic EW. It's highly likely that one of the patterns described in the material has completed today.
> 
> if you take a look at the market from 10am on the 1-12-08 to now on a 15min chart you should see something like the image below....
> 
> http://www.prognosis.nl/elwave/faq/principle/principle2.html#patterns
> 
> A little painful to identify, but many complex corrections will be hard to identify until they are nearly finished.
> 
> The next few trading hours from today and tomorrow morning should prove whether this complex correction is correct (no pun intended)





Hi Oz,  funnily enough I agree with some of your analysis but for a totally different reason------ i was gonna bite my tongue but i cant help it ------ None of the following is directed at U Oz  U just sparked the flame

you cant put the horse before the cart ---- the charts patterns we all think we are seeing in E/W Fibs etc etc are nothing more than the smart money playing the game.   The only thing traders need to concentrate on is where the smart cash is going in and or out of the market. the waves created by the smart money may well look like a brilliant abc 123 etc etc but that is just a representation of where the big bucks are going 

If we can follow the cash of the biggest boys- --- not the big boys!! then over time ---- time is very important thankyou Frank ------ we will end up rich

biggest problem is ---- do you (we ) have deep enough pockets to follow the biggest boys for the timescale they are working in???   Too long a time frame for me !!, so I try and  follow the big boys or the semi- big boys and pick up the dregs of the shorter term plays (counter trends after the biggest boys have shown their hand !!)       ranting raving etc etc ----- dogmatic viewers will take my comments with a passing glance and dismiss lol 

20th and 21st November 2008 SPI look important days to me   (3200-3400 = value buying??) ------ biggest boys ??    maybe??   TIME will tell.


----------



## MRC & Co

Don't follow EW so won't comment on that and don't want to hiijack the thread.

But interesting points Frank.  My mind struggles to grasp your concept of 'time', but that explanation definately made it easier.  I remember reading Penfold apply 'time' to EW in his book, "trading the SPI", whereby he also mentioned you in relation to pivot points.  I guess he introduced time after reading your work.

Cartman, WTF are you on about?


----------



## Cartman

MRC & Co said:


> Cartman, WTF are you on about?




Hahah     Are you serious MRC??   You dont know??     C'mon you are a trader.  The reason you dont use E/W is because you ARE a trader!!  Traders follow the smart money ------ dont they??!!

ps  If we dont test at least 3400 soon I'll be very surprised!


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Cartman said:


> Hi Oz,  funnily enough I agree with some of your analysis but for a totally different reason------ i was gonna bite my tongue but i cant help it ------ None of the following is directed at U Oz  U just sparked the flame




No problems Cartman.

As EW is based on the psychology of the 'herd', it doesn't matter what the big boys and the 'smart money' is doing - when it's all rolled up, it all plays out in waves that can be analyzed.

On a semi-related topic - a demonstration of market psychology was briefly conducted here --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=364384&postcount=231

based simply on the psychology of people in this forum and nothing to do with 'smart money'.


----------



## MRC & Co

Cartman said:


> Hahah     Are you serious MRC??   You dont know??     C'mon you are a trader.  The reason you dont use E/W is because you ARE a trader!!  Traders follow the smart money ------ dont they??!!
> 
> ps  If we dont test at least 3400 soon I'll be very surprised!




Big boys, biggest boys, semi-big boys?  ha ha ha.  I have a hard enough time deciphering if someone at least big enough to get on board with is doing something worthwhile, let alone figuring out which one is which.  

I don't really believe in the concept of 'smart money' anymore.  Just look at all the terrible investment returns (or lack thereof) out there lately from some HUGE institutions.  Why didn't they get out at the top, if they are the 'smart money'?  :

Back to EW and the introduction of time.


----------



## Cartman

OzWaveGuy said:


> No problems Cartman.
> 
> As EW is based on the psychology of the 'herd', it doesn't matter what the big boys and the 'smart money' is doing - when it's all rolled up, it all plays out in waves that can be analyzed.
> 
> On a semi-related topic - a demonstration of market psychology was briefly conducted here --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=364384&postcount=231
> 
> based simply on the psychology of people in this forum and nothing to do with 'smart money'.





Hi Oz,  Im obviously in the minority here (even a trader like MRC doesnt understand my logic !! haha )

Not trying to create waves -- haha -- ok,not funny ----- just an alternative perception of what makes the market tick

Seriously though, the smart money DRIVES the market   period!!    It may not enter or exit where we think it should, but if you can recognise its footprint, then put your money on and come back in a couple of years and reap the benefits.

Problem ------- the smart money has DEEP POCKETS ----- they may buy the market and be happy for it to drop another 10% ----- as retail traders, can we ride out the bumps??   Not me unfortunately. im young and have limited capital

My point was, I choose to see where the smart money enters/exits the market, then ride off the second phase of trading (cause the smart money has already made its position known !! ------- high volume/high range etc --- but which part of the range did the smart money enter ????   Very important !

anyway, im probably wasting my time sharing my views --- just interested whether any others saw the logic.   Humans are so goddamn dogmatic about their perceptions/views


----------



## Cartman

MRC & Co said:


> .  Why didn't they get out at the top, if they are the 'smart money'?  :
> 
> Back to EW and the introduction of time.





Lol  More than likely they did !! :

Seriously though MRC, I respect your posts  i was just stirring the pot   but you aint gona convince me that the SMARTEST (not just smart), money doesnt drive the market 

The market is driven by greed.  The deeper your pockets the more clout you have.   The trick is how we choose to follow the greed.


----------



## mazzatelli1000

Cartman said:


> Hi Oz,  Im obviously in the minority here (even a trader like MRC doesnt understand my logic !! haha )
> 
> Not trying to create waves -- haha -- ok,not funny ----- just an alternative perception of what makes the market tick
> 
> Seriously though, the smart money DRIVES the market   period!!    It may not enter or exit where we think it should, but if you can recognise its footprint, then put your money on and come back in a couple of years and reap the benefits.
> 
> Problem ------- the smart money has DEEP POCKETS ----- they may buy the market and be happy for it to drop another 10% ----- as retail traders, can we ride out the bumps??   Not me unfortunately. im young and have limited capital
> 
> My point was, I choose to see where the smart money enters/exits the market, then ride off the second phase of trading (cause the smart money has already made its position known !! ------- high volume/high range etc --- but which part of the range did the smart money enter ????   Very important !
> 
> anyway, im probably wasting my time sharing my views --- just interested whether any others saw the logic.   Humans are so goddamn dogmatic about their perceptions/views




Nothing new here - did you just discover this concept ??? 
- but I have seen Nick Radge forecast using EW XAO hitting around 3,200 mark about a month before it did

But Franks Time Concept is very interesting....


----------



## tech/a

Cartman said:


> Hi Oz,  Im obviously in the minority here (even a trader like MRC doesnt understand my logic !! haha )
> 
> Not trying to create waves -- haha -- ok,not funny ----- just an alternative perception of what makes the market tick
> 
> Seriously though, the smart money DRIVES the market   period!!    It may not enter or exit where we think it should, but if you can recognise its footprint, then put your money on and come back in a couple of years and reap the benefits.
> 
> Problem ------- the smart money has DEEP POCKETS ----- they may buy the market and be happy for it to drop another 10% ----- as retail traders, can we ride out the bumps??   Not me unfortunately. im young and have limited capital
> 
> My point was, I choose to see where the smart money enters/exits the market, then ride off the second phase of trading (cause the smart money has already made its position known !! ------- high volume/high range etc --- but which part of the range did the smart money enter ????   Very important !
> 
> anyway, im probably wasting my time sharing my views --- just interested whether any others saw the logic.   Humans are so goddamn dogmatic about their perceptions/views




Sure Volume Spread Analysis has been around for years.
http://www.tradeguider.com/
Get a hold of the E book if you can.

Back to Elliott.


----------



## Cartman

mazzatelli1000 said:


> Nothing new here - did you just discover this concept ???
> 
> 
> But Franks Time Concept is very interesting....




Ouch!!  

 If its not new, does that mean agree with me Mazza


----------



## Cartman

tech/a said:


> Sure Volume Spread Analysis has been around for years.
> Back to Elliott.






OK Tech  I'll bite  ------   First of all I assume we are not talking singular stocks here  ok??   so Index's or FX ??

Do you separate E/W from VSA or use it in conjunction?

Im assuming conjunction ----- so which has the most importance in your analysis?

for eg  If you get a strong Wave3 with crap volume how do you respond to that from a trading point of view? 

Man this could really get out of hand   does anyone see where I'm coming from -------------- I'M TRYING TO HELP ---------------      LOL


----------



## MRC & Co

ha ha, your a funny man Cartman.  

I see what your trying to say.  It's basically Wyckoff and VSA.


----------



## Boggo

Cartman said:


> My point was, I choose to see where the smart money enters/exits the market, then ride off the second phase of trading (cause the smart money has already made its position known !! ------- high volume/high range etc --- but which part of the range did the smart money enter ????   Very important !




Great in theory Cartman, based on the above did you follow Morgan Stanley when they bought 171 million shares in OZ Minerals.

Were they "smart money" then, now ?

I have tried that approach Cartman, I have gone full circle and am right back now where the entry, exit and stop loss points are really all that matters.

I do support the theory for long term holdings (SMSF etc) that fundamental stability and technical analysis work well together.
Fundamentals are not faring that well at the moment nor is the so called smart money, what is "smart money" anyway.

Look at some of the so called smart money recommendations at the moment, these people are on drugs, would you buy TLS because the so called smart money is recommending them.

The point I am getting to is that you need to get your own edge, most people that can survive in any climate are those that can arrange their "own" advantage.

For most on this particular thread Elliott Wave Analysis is just one of those tools that works 50% of the time on 50% of the market, that is more than enough if you know how to use it. (I am learning something new everyday to my advantage thanks to people like Nick Radge, Robert Miner etc etc)

If you can lay your hands on a copy of Edwin Lefevre's book "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", the book about Jesse Livermore 'reading the tape', he was the smart money as opposed to the mass money.

Don't confuse the mass money with the smart money.

That my  Cartman, Cheers, Boggo


----------



## Cartman

MRC & Co said:


> ha ha, your a funny man Cartman.
> 
> I see what your trying to say.  It's basically Wyckoff and VSA.




Thanks MRC,  I was starting to get a bit paranoid there    (I seriously do appreciate your posts  

Wycoff ---- who the hell is Wycoff !!   lol ----- Ive learned to question the markets from my old man -------------- my old man is a loser lol !!!!  

Nah my old man is cool   he just lost all our money,  but i figure I'll make up for his stuff ups


----------



## Cartman

Boggo said:


> Great in theory Cartman, based on the above did you follow Morgan Stanley when they bought 171 million shares in OZ Minerals.
> 
> Were they "smart money" then, now ?




Hey Bog,   Understand your points ---------- Please refer to my previous post to Tech ------------- I am talking the bigger picture --- Index's/fUTS etc --------   ie Stocks dont count !!

Individual stocks dont mean crapola --- small potatoes  --- anyone (even the big guys) can make a ballzup on a given stock, but when the big money comes in on the futs, we need to take notice cause that is serious moula !!

ps read the R of a Stock Broker --- one of my favorites --- kind of thought i was thinking like him actually  ------------------ 

the crowd says "we are doing this" ------------ smart money says "screw you guys" we're going home!! (para-phrased for obvious reasons!!)


----------



## MRC & Co

ha ha ha, you crack me up Cartman.  Completely random like one of my best mates.  

Agree with Boggo, there is smart money and there is large money.  

Smart money is any kind of money that has an edge.  Large money can get stuck in positions they don't want (read reminiscences like Boggo says, you will see Mr Livermore corner a market (including futs) and get stuck with positions he does not even want).  If you can work out when large money is entering/exiting, you can frontrun them, and become the smart money.  

Books like the VSA one make out there is some secret underground group of guys out there that are trying to quietly manipulate the market.  Though, the basic premise of getting on when bigger guys do and getting out when bigger guys do, to make dosh, is the same.


----------



## Cartman

MRC & Co said:


> ha ha ha, you crack me up Cartman.  Completely random like one of my best mates.
> 
> Agree with Boggo, there is smart money and there is large money.
> 
> Smart money is any kind of money that has an edge.  Large money can get stuck in positions they don't want (read reminiscences like Boggo says, you will see Mr Livermore corner a market (including futs) and get stuck with positions he does not even want).  If you can work out when large money is entering/exiting, you can frontrun them, and become the smart money.
> 
> Books like the VSA one make out there is some secret underground group of guys out there that are trying to quietly manipulate the market.  Though, the basic premise of getting on when bigger guys do and getting out when bigger guys do, to make dosh, is the same.





Ha!!   maybe i am your best mate and you dont know ive registered on ASF just to stir the crap out of you   lol  

In all seriousness though --- getting back to the thread as Tech so eloquently and subtly noted in post whatever it was ---- does E/W  tell us anything we dont already know in contrast to a couple of MA's and a Stochastic fitted to the time frame we are looking at??

for eg can we take entry points from E/W??

does E/W work on a 1 minute chart??

a one second chart??

Im guessing that all E/Wers still use basic T/A for entries ---- ??

ps All this is for discussion only -- im only pretending to stir the pot -- im genuinely interested --


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Cartman said:


> does E/W  tell us anything we dont already know in contrast to a couple of MA's and a Stochastic fitted to the time frame we are looking at??
> 
> for eg can we take entry points from E/W??
> 
> does E/W work on a 1 minute chart??
> 
> a one second chart??
> 
> Im guessing that all E/Wers still use basic T/A for entries ---- ??
> 
> ps All this is for discussion only -- im only pretending to stir the pot -- im genuinely interested --




Cartman - I suggest you spend some time reading thru this thread and some of the others on EW in the forum. Answers to your questions should be forthcoming. If you have other questions after reading, either I or others will be happy to answer them. In addition there are a number of books that various people have recommended in the past.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

This thread is getting hilarious. 

Cartman I understand your thoughts regarding EW. 

Tech, Nick has already established the VSA EW method.


----------



## Cartman

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Cartman I understand your thoughts regarding EW.




Finally someone who understands me !!  Thank you Snake (I think MRC is warming to me as well )



Oz, Tech and others    I understand a lot more about  E/W than you might think   ---- Young in years, old in study 

very interested in the answers to my last post??

entry points from e/W or traditional T/A  

E/W on a 1 min / 1 sec chart??? Valid or not ------ WHY/why not?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

tech/a said:


> Cartman.
> 
> Have a read of
> "Dynamic Trading "
> By Robert Miner.
> 
> Would be helpful.




Tech,

Have you utilised his time elements?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Cartman said:


> If you get a strong Wave3 with crap volume how do you respond to that from a trading point of view?



This is a good question. 

Watch wave 4. Or, many other options depending on your EW melded style.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Cartman said:


> Seriously though, that chart on FMG that was mentioned above somewhere   I could count at least 10 waves between the low in Jan to the high in June   Y complicate it with stuff --- 123, 123,  etc    Lower high, lower low,  mmmm....   might be time to sell !!
> 
> Not trying to be smart  just the way i see it.




Cartman,

This is the initial problems I had too. Why here and not here? Why 5 instead of 15 waves?

It is theory and that is not realistic at times. There are ways to see through the counts which are more practical.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Cartman said:


> entry points from e/W or traditional T/A
> 
> E/W on a 1 min / 1 sec chart??? Valid or not ------ WHY/why not?



I guess it depends on the EW method you are using. If you go by traditional theory I cannot assist as I don't know enough about it and its rigidity.


----------



## Cartman

Thanks  Snake.  I may write a lot of crap but its always tempered with serious content for anyone who wants to take the time to read it. Youve taken the time and I respect that.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Cartman said:


> Thanks  Snake.  I may write a lot of crap but its always tempered with serious content for anyone who wants to take the time to read it. Youve taken the time and I respect that.



No worries Cartman. We all have valid points to talk about at times.
Cheers..


----------



## potato

I think this thread was started for ppl who wanted to learn EW, its not about justifying EW. Every1 has a method to help them pull the trigger... some ppl like to toss a coin, some ppl like to use EW ... whats the big deal 

Cartman if u knew as much as u say about EW then u wouldnt ask those questions - u should try the google bar and come back with some better questions regarding EW if u are serious.


----------



## Sean K

Come on guys. How hard is it to discuss this without having to start a piss throwing contest? Maybe people get infected by this EW stuff and turn into monsters? Dr Jeykl and Mr Wave?


----------



## chops_a_must

It's a mental illness Kennas.

It's called Elliot Wavertism.

Helps you set up multiple accounts, never allows you to see the other side, and provides justification for letting your losers run.


----------



## Cartman

potato said:


> I think this thread was started for ppl who wanted to learn EW, its not about justifying EW. Every1 has a method to help them pull the trigger... some ppl like to toss a coin, some ppl like to use EW ... whats the big deal
> 
> Cartman if u knew as much as u say about EW then u wouldnt ask those questions - u should try the google bar and come back with some better questions regarding EW if u are serious.





My nasty post was deleted – took me 10 minutes to write that   I'll be nice now!

Hey Potato

Ok Ive adjusted the post I had just written cause I thought you hadn’t replied --- plan B

Firstly if you want to learn about the intricacies of E/W I’m certainly NOT your man

Tech,  Nick Radge,  Frank (brilliant) and many others

I am actually very sincere --- im also a bit crazy but that is another story (I watch South Park that should explain a  lot lol  hence the “screw you guys”  one of Cartmans famous lines – my apologies if that offended --- certainly not intended)

The questions I asked were genuine although probably misconstrued due to me being flippant cause I wasn’t really asking them to get answers just raise discussion

The horse scenario where price represents a two horse race is valid re chasing outliers  I think that analogy was actually pretty thought provoking -- both cryptic and logical

Re E/W

Imo E/W is interesting  on a minor to intermediate level to get an overview of the bigger picture either developing or breaking down but i trade mostly on 1 second charts (not stocks) where i find E/W has very little use --  Cycles on a 1 second chart generally last between 10 to 30 minutes on average ---- simple MA's , MOMENTUM ,  H/H's  L/L's etc etc relative to the previous cycle  are all that is required

Entries based purely on E/W are in my opinion too loose and require too wide stops to be effective in my world --- unless scaled into 
Wont  ramble on any further --- If ive annoyed anyone on this thread I apologise ---- just trying to have a bit of light hearted fun


----------



## Cartman

chops_a_must said:


> It's a mental illness Kennas.





Goddamn it  they're on to me :taz:


----------



## Porper

chops_a_must said:


> It's a mental illness Kennas.
> 
> It's called Elliot Wavertism.
> 
> Helps you set up multiple accounts, never allows you to see the other side, and provides justification for letting your losers run.




Hello Chops, not sure how it let's your losers run.

One of the main advantages of E.Wave is that it gives an absolute level where we the count is wrong, therefore a stop is triggered, no ifs and buts, this is absolute.

Yes, the count then changes, we then have to decide if another trade is available, sometimes it is, sometimes not.

We seem to be concentrating on whether Elliot is predictive and a valid methodology or whether it is just all mumbo jumbo, again.This has been covered so many times on here Cartman, not worth going over again.

Maybe you just either love it or hate it.

I wasn't going to rise to Frank D's post but we can all pick a stock, index or whatever and make our method look like the Holy Grail.I would suggest it is like any other method, it seems to work on occasions and not others, question is can we profit from our method or not.

Some clearly on here have tried Elliot and it  hasn't worked, I know others that have proved to me that it does, personal experience has been overall successful if applied correctly, of course always room for improvement.


----------



## tech/a

> i trade mostly on 1 second charts (not stocks) where i find E/W has very little use -- Cycles on a 1 second chart generally last between 10 to 30 minutes on average ---- simple MA's , MOMENTUM , H/H's L/L's etc etc relative to the previous cycle are all that is required




This is where I lose/have lost-- interest in the discussion.


----------



## mazzatelli1000

tech/a said:


> This is where I lose/have lost-- interest in the discussion.




Don't like the shorter time fram tech/a??


----------



## Frank D

Porper

That’s got nothing to do with curve fitting a chart to make it look like the 
holy grail.

All I’m doing is giving an example of introducing a Time element to verify 
the wave count after the close of the timeframe, so that the trader
 trades the 100% moves from the previous timeframe using certain 
set-ups.

You either trade a breakout or you trade a certain set-up, which I think 
from mid points outward is one of the most robust set-ups using 'Time' as 
a key component.

Once the timeframe ends then the new wave counts can be 
verified.

If you are a short to medium term trader you focus on the Weekly 
and monthly charts.

The larger the trends you focus on the Quarterly and Yearly timeframes. 

There are 13 pages on this thread and I still haven’t seen a
 generic plan /rules or certain set-ups for traders to take using EW.  

I've just given an example by introducing Time.

 If you like you can show one.


----------



## theasxgorilla

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Cartman,
> 
> This is the initial problems I had too. Why here and not here? *Why 5 instead of 15 waves?
> *
> It is theory and that is not realistic at times. There are ways to see through the counts which are more practical.




This question is easily answered.  The five waves forward three waves back is the fewest number of waves possible for progress with fluctuation.  That's the beauty of Elliott Wave and why I believe that it probably has some scientific basis and that someone will eventually win a Nobel prize one day for finally proving it.

Regarding someone else's question about waves on shorter timeframes.  My opinion (based on common sense and some experience) is that Elliott Wave must work best at those timeframes where the price data (as represented on a chart) contains the purest representation of the sentiment behind the actions of the market participants, perhaps with some upper filter for volatility.

As you lengthen the timeframe of your analysis the risk for distortion of the relative meaning of price movements invariably goes up.  What is a rise of 100% on the S&P500 when the USD depreciates 50% during the same time?  Prechter had this problem when trying to breakdown the count of the 00-02 bear market and attempted to normalise the currency shifts and reduce the wave-count distortion by creating a "stable currency benchmark".

Similarly, while distortions caused by things such as currency fluctuations and inflation will (IMO) over a longer period of time slowly erode the viability of price data for wave counts, sudden increases in volatility (eg. 800-pound gorillas, black swan events etc.) must almost certainly destroy the effectiveness of wave counting until volatility subsides.

And at very small timeframes I expect that it takes events of lesser magnitude to ruin wave counts and start causing Elliott Wave rule breaking price activity.  The lower you go the more likely you are to have your counts ruined, again IMO.

Prechter won the US Trading Championships using hourly charts.  Many non-EW swing traders I know use this time-frame as their base (zooming out for market perspective and in to fine tune entries/exits).  I've personally found the incidence of identifiable wave-counts at this time frame on liquid instruments makes it a kind of sweet spot for actually _trading_ using EW.

My amateur opinion.


----------



## chops_a_must

Porper said:


> Hello Chops, not sure how it let's your losers run.
> 
> One of the main advantages of E.Wave is that it gives an absolute level where we the count is wrong, therefore a stop is triggered, no ifs and buts, this is absolute.



Just taking a swipe at WP with that Porper my good man, who through one of his many aliases, admitted he had been holding USD for about 18 months or something, despite being on the wrong side.


----------



## Boggo

theasxgorilla said:


> This question is easily answered.  The five waves forward three waves back is the fewest number of waves possible for progress with fluctuation.  That's the beauty of Elliott Wave and why I believe that it probably has some scientific basis and that someone will eventually win a Nobel prize one day for finally proving it.
> 
> Regarding someone else's question about waves on shorter timeframes.  My opinion (based on common sense and some experience) is that Elliott Wave must work best at those timeframes where the price data (as represented on a chart) contains the purest representation of the sentiment behind the actions of the market participants, perhaps with some upper filter for volatility.
> 
> As you lengthen the timeframe of your analysis the risk for distortion of the relative meaning of price movements invariably goes up.  What is a rise of 100% on the S&P500 when the USD depreciates 50% during the same time?  Prechter had this problem when trying to breakdown the count of the 00-02 bear market and attempted to normalise the currency shifts and reduce the wave-count distortion by creating a "stable currency benchmark".
> 
> Similarly, while distortions caused by things such as currency fluctuations and inflation will (IMO) over a longer period of time slowly erode the viability of price data for wave counts, sudden increases in volatility (eg. 800-pound gorillas, black swan events etc.) must almost certainly destroy the effectiveness of wave counting until volatility subsides.
> 
> And at very small timeframes I expect that it takes events of lesser magnitude to ruin wave counts and start causing Elliott Wave rule breaking price activity.  The lower you go the more likely you are to have your counts ruined, again IMO.
> 
> Prechter won the US Trading Championships using hourly charts.  Many non-EW swing traders I know use this time-frame as their base (zooming out for market perspective and in to fine tune entries/exits).  I've personally found the incidence of identifiable wave-counts at this time frame on liquid instruments makes it a kind of sweet spot for actually _trading_ using EW.
> 
> My amateur opinion.




Good post, can we get back to this type of commentary rather than wasting bandwidth going round in circles.


Thought for today...

_A Cherokee elder sitting with his grandchildren told them, "In every life there is a terrible fight -- a fight between two wolves.

One Wolf is evil: he is fear, anger, envy, greed, arrogance, self-pity, resentment and deceit.

The other Wolf is good: joy, serenity, humility, confidence, generosity, truth, gentleness, and compassion."

A child asked, "Grandfather, which wolf will win?"

The elder looked him in the eye. "The one you feed."_


----------



## motorway

theasxgorilla said:


> This question is easily answered.  The five waves forward three waves back is the fewest number of waves possible for progress with fluctuation.  That's the beauty of Elliott Wave and why I believe that it probably has some scientific basis and that someone will eventually win a Nobel prize one day for finally proving it.
> 
> Regarding someone else's question about waves on shorter timeframes.  My opinion (based on common sense and some experience) is that Elliott Wave must work best at those timeframes where the price data (as represented on a chart) contains the purest representation of the sentiment behind the actions of the market participants, perhaps with some upper filter for volatility.
> 
> As you lengthen the timeframe of your analysis the risk for distortion of the relative meaning of price movements invariably goes up.  What is a rise of 100% on the S&P500 when the USD depreciates 50% during the same time?  Prechter had this problem when trying to breakdown the count of the 00-02 bear market and attempted to normalise the currency shifts and reduce the wave-count distortion by creating a "stable currency benchmark".
> 
> Similarly, while distortions caused by things such as currency fluctuations and inflation will (IMO) over a longer period of time slowly erode the viability of price data for wave counts, sudden increases in volatility (eg. 800-pound gorillas, black swan events etc.) must almost certainly destroy the effectiveness of wave counting until volatility subsides.
> 
> And at very small timeframes I expect that it takes events of lesser magnitude to ruin wave counts and start causing Elliott Wave rule breaking price activity.  The lower you go the more likely you are to have your counts ruined, again IMO.
> 
> Prechter won the US Trading Championships using hourly charts.  Many non-EW swing traders I know use this time-frame as their base (zooming out for market perspective and in to fine tune entries/exits).  I've personally found the incidence of identifiable wave-counts at this time frame on liquid instruments makes it a kind of sweet spot for actually _trading_ using EW.
> 
> My amateur opinion.





A really good post

Dow studied P&F for 15 years 
Elliot studied Dow

does not seem to have realised that fact
ie there was already an objective Wave chart method

This  5-3 over a average cycle
is seen in a 3 box reversal chart
and the 45 degree angle


P&F is an objective wave chart
with time as dynamic not static

The EW people see on static time charts

are very hard I think to see on P&F charts

Yet if they were objective they would leap out

molecules break down in to atoms
that are no longer molecules

tides and waves break down in to ripples

EW is often used on indexes

But how can rigid rules be used over long time horizons
when the constituents change all the time to boost performance

esp the DOW such a narrow based index

Wyckoff too based his whole approach on the objective waves

on the small ripples He gives this as there cause



> All stock market movements, however large or small, are made up of buying and selling waves. The market does not rise and fall like the water in a tank which is being filled or emptied. It moves to a higher or lower level by a series of surges - a good deal like an incoming or outgoing tide, with successive waves higher or lower than those preceding.
> 
> The small buying and selling waves which occur during every stock market session run so many minutes. They are caused largely by the restlessness of active professional traders, much like the ripples produced by the wind upon the ocean. Traders must have activity; they make their livelihood by trading on fluctuations. Therefore, they engage in a ceaseless tug of war, trying to put prices up whenever the condition of the market is favorable, or drive them down when they find that the bulls are weak or have over-extended themselves.
> 
> The degree of success or failure attending their efforts enables us to determine whether the market is growing stronger or weaker. These small waves are part of the larger waves



buildings are not just bricks
bricks are not just molecules
molecules are not just atoms

price and volume probably rules at the smallest 
relative Strength probably at the largest

EW would have a sweet spot too


5-3 is an average over a cycle
Not all bricks are perfect
But buildings still stand
foundations hold up
etc


motorway


----------



## Cartman

tech/a said:


> This is where I lose/have lost-- interest in the discussion.




That surprises me Tech.  The 1 second cycles are crystal clear.  would have thought youd have em for breakfast  
have attached a 1 sec chart of earlier today. the short setup shown is almost perfect  you could quite easily find a 5 wave pattern in that down move 



theasxgorilla said:


> Regarding someone else's question about waves on shorter timeframes.  My opinion (based on common sense and some experience) is that Elliott Wave must work best at those timeframes where the price data (as represented on a chart) contains the purest representation of the sentiment behind the actions of the market participants, perhaps with some upper filter for volatility.
> 
> As you lengthen the timeframe of your analysis the risk for distortion of the relative meaning of price movements invariably goes up.
> 
> 
> And at very small timeframes I expect that it takes events of lesser magnitude to ruin wave counts and start causing Elliott Wave rule breaking price activity.  The lower you go the more likely you are to have your counts ruined, again IMO.
> 
> Prechter won the US Trading Championships using hourly charts.  Many non-EW swing traders I know use this time-frame as their base (zooming out for market perspective and in to fine tune entries/exits).  I've personally found the incidence of identifiable wave-counts at this time frame on liquid instruments makes it a kind of sweet spot for actually _trading_ using EW.
> 
> My amateur opinion.




that was no amateur opinion Gorilla  very well put.


my first post somewhere above where i put forward the scenario that only 3 waves are required to trade successfully was not met with much seriousness -- thats why i kinda got a bit silly after that -- but i would actually appreciate some input on that

i know its technically not E/W (or is it ??   still dealing with the same waves  just calling them 123 -- in hindsight i should have said 123 abc  where the peak of wave 3 of each cycle becomes wave a -- peak of wave c then becomes the next wave 1  etc etc)
the average layman probably finds complex wave counts a bit crazy (that would be me lol)   just trying to simplify it 

anyway it works for me


----------



## Rudy

Hi Folks,

Sorry for coming in out of the blue but I have only just joined Aussie Stock Forums in the last few minutes. If I am breaching some rule  of etiquette by just coming into the thread unannounced please forgive me and tell me what I need to do to do it properly.

I am extremely interested in Elliott Wave Principles and have been studying it in much detail for a period of 3 months now. Much of my time is spent analysing the XJO as I am an Aussie investor.

I have a question about an EW puzzle that I have which relates to the XJO from the start of the bull market in March 2003 and ended in the 3 significant waves down from the 1st November 2007 and culminated in the termination of the 3rd wave down on the 21st November 2008.

Effectively during that period we have had a total of 8 waves which falls in line with the basic Elliott Wave pattern. Now to my question.  A number of EW analysts believe that the 3 waves of the bear market from the 1st November 2007 to the 21st November 2008 are an incomplete wave A of one degree higher. They believe that this wave A may be an impulse wave (ie, 5 wave pattern) with 2 waves yet to complete which is part of an ABC Zigzag pattern.  Now I know that there are all sorts of views about those 3 waves but if these EW analysts are correct then the completed wave A will have a total of 5 waves down added to the 5 waves up from the previous bull market (2003~2007) giving us a total of 10 waves of the same degree.

I believe that this 10 wave pattern would be in breach of EW rules.  Can you guys please provide some opinions on this please as I find it quite puzzling.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi Folks,
> 
> Sorry for coming in out of the blue but I have only just joined Aussie Stock Forums in the last few minutes.




Welcome Rudy.

Perhaps you can label and post a chart so that people are clear on what you're describing.

Cheers OWG


----------



## Porper

chops_a_must said:


> Just taking a swipe at WP with that Porper my good man, who through one of his many aliases, admitted he had been holding USD for about 18 months or something, despite being on the wrong side.




Chops, I posted a couple of days ago suggesting that some E.Wavers weren't posting.

One of the reasons I don't post much now is exactly the reason you have pointed out above.

If we don't have clarity what do we have.

Over and out, again.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

I'll take this lull in thread activity to make a brief update on the market action over the last few days.

Yesterday, I posted some discussion on a possible text book double three correction on the XAO. So far, it looks as though the last leg of the double three is finalizing it's run. There was a chance yesterday that the double three had completed, but based on market action today, it looks as though the triangle is still unfolding.

I have not personally seen many double 3's unfold at a reasonable time scale like this (or perhaps I've missed them altogether ) so it's kinda interesting to watch.

My feeling (not backed up by any significant analysis at this stage) is that the breakout won't last that long before a reversal occurs. A possible target range after the breakout could be somewhere between 3785 (61.6% of the first leg) upto 3960 (100% of the first leg). 

In addition there are other targets as well, including a target that is as low as 3680 (38.2% of the first leg up) which would just clear the Dec 1st High. 

In any event, if the correction plays out as discussed the proceeding waves should provide guidance on the next leg's target areas.

I've overlaid the market action since 1st Dec onto the 'text book' Double Three.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Welcome Rudy.
> 
> Perhaps you can label and post a chart so that people are clear on what you're describing.
> 
> Cheers OWG




Hi OzWaveGuy,

Thanks for the warm welcome, much appreciated. 

The following chart shows one potential labeling of the XJO from March 2003 through to November 2008. It basically shows a completed Elliott Wave pattern of 8 waves of the same degree (level). The waves of the same level are shown in enclosed brackets, ie in "( )".

I have shown the label for the (A), (B), (C) corrective phase of one degree higher as [A].  I haven't shown the label for 1 degree higher at the termination point of (5) as it could be argued that it could be either [3] or [5]. 






There are some EW analysts who that it is premature to label the corrective phase of the first chart because they suggest that whilst there has been 3 waves down so far {(A), (B) and (C)}, there is a possibility that there may be another two waves as shown in the following chart.






Now I am fairly sure that labeling the down moves using numbers as I have does not meet EW conventions but I only do it to show that they are at the same degree as those 5 waves in the preceding up move.


Hence using that thought they may label the 5 down moves as (1), (2), (3), (4) and (5).  The termination point then is a 5 wave pattern down again labeled [A]. Incidentally the 3 wave [A] would be the start of a Flat pattern and the 5 wave [A] pattern would be the start of a Zigzag pattern.

Any way back to my original question. It appears to me that the 5 wave down pattern does not meet EW rules as in conjuction with the 5 wave move up we have a total of 10 waves of the same degree in the completed pattern. I would have thought that you should only have a total of 8 waves in a completed pattern.

I guess that it could be argued that in fact I don't have a completed pattern because I am mixing two degrees (levels).  Any opinions would be sincerely appreciated.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

A few days back I indicated I would walk people (who were interested) in using EW as part of the trading or investing plan.

Some suggested topics (and based on recent thread dicsussion) could include:

Wave identification and selecting the right time frames for analysis.
Specific Patterns to be aware of (ones that are good, and ones that will roast you)
Fibonannci
Entry/Exits
Use of indicators
Using Time in wave analysis

The above topics would probably be a good start - If you have any specific areas you would like covered then feel free to add them. Be prepared to buy and read (a lot) from books, this is the one area that will help you significantly. 

This week has been hectic as all hell and won't lighten up until the end of the year, so expect topic coverage to be gradual.

First step, go to the education section of Elliott Wave international http://www.elliottwave.com/education/ and register (it's free) and start reading their EW material esp the basic stuff. They also have some free videos that are quite good. If your new to EW, you may not understand all the content, but don't worry - I'm still re-reading the books I have from time to time.

Cheers

OWG


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> I'll take this lull in thread activity to make a brief update on the market action over the last few days.
> 
> Yesterday, I posted some discussion on a possible text book double three correction on the XAO. So far, it looks as though the last leg of the double three is finalizing it's run. There was a chance yesterday that the double three had completed, but based on market action today, it looks as though the triangle is still unfolding.
> 
> I have not personally seen many double 3's unfold at a reasonable time scale like this (or perhaps I've missed them altogether ) so it's kinda interesting to watch.
> 
> My feeling (not backed up by any significant analysis at this stage) is that the breakout won't last that long before a reversal occurs. A possible target range after the breakout could be somewhere between 3785 (61.6% of the first leg) upto 3960 (100% of the first leg).
> 
> In addition there are other targets as well, including a target that is as low as 3680 (38.2% of the first leg up) which would just clear the Dec 1st High.
> 
> In any event, if the correction plays out as discussed the proceeding waves should provide guidance on the next leg's target areas.
> 
> I've overlaid the market action since 1st Dec onto the 'text book' Double Three.





Hi OWG,

Thanks for sharing that chart with us. Your labeling looks good.  Did the sharp dip down earlier today change your mind at all? I guess that the only thing that did was to change the shape of your 'd' wave from a zigzag into a flat. Would you say that 'd' has possibly completed and that on Monday we'll see the 'e' wave complete and the early part of the wave 'c' circle?  

In order to get the top of wave 'c' circle what level are you taking as your start point?  I thought that you had to take the termination point of your wave 'b' circle (ie, the termination of wave 'e') as the start point. Or do you take the lowest level attained by the wave 'b' circle?

Am I correct in assuming that your wave 'a' circle was the leg from the 21st November 2008 (3217.5) to the 28th November 2008 (3742) thus giving a range of 525 points?

Sorry about all the questions but I really want to learn this stuff.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> A few days back I indicated I would walk people (who were interested) in using EW as part of the trading or investing plan.
> 
> Some suggested topics (and based on recent thread dicsussion) could include:
> 
> Wave identification and selecting the right time frames for analysis.
> Specific Patterns to be aware of (ones that are good, and ones that will roast you)
> Fibonannci
> Entry/Exits
> Use of indicators
> Using Time in wave analysis
> 
> The above topics would probably be a good start - If you have any specific areas you would like covered then feel free to add them. Be prepared to buy and read (a lot) from books, this is the one area that will help you significantly.
> 
> This week has been hectic as all hell and won't lighten up until the end of the year, so expect topic coverage to be gradual.
> 
> First step, go to the education section of Elliott Wave international http://www.elliottwave.com/education/ and register (it's free) and start reading their EW material esp the basic stuff. They also have some free videos that are quite good. If your new to EW, you may not understand all the content, but don't worry - I'm still re-reading the books I have from time to time.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> OWG





Hi OWG,

I am very interested in taking up your offer.  I have already read through Prechter and Frost's Elliott Wave Principle book once completely and sections of it several times.

Cheers

Rudy


----------



## fyusy

OWG,

Hello, great charts, I'm interested in learning EW too. Count me in


----------



## tech/a

This maybe benificial to some.
This link is the the educational area in Esignal for Advanced Get users.
While it is specific to the software it also has some good answers to the use of Elliott in conjunction with other indicators---a question asked here often.
Some are Standard indicators and others are proprietory.

However it may well be of interest so I've posted it up.

If you down load the AGET Features PDF which is the last one you'll get a good overview.
For those curious the software is $3500 is for the EOD and $5000 for R/T.
Not selling it but sure the question will arise.

http://share.esignal.com/groupcontents.jsp?folder=AGET Features&groupid=20


----------



## OzWaveGuy

From https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=374527&postcount=266

Wave 'e' cooked @ 3:48pm today? Certainly a case for it.

For those 'excited' watching double three's unfold over many weeks, it looks like a much smaller double 3 unfolded as part of the b wave inside wave e today. You can see it on the 1min XAO chart from 11:27am to 3:14pm.

Let's see what happens tomorrow morning.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Keep up the good work Oz wave guy and others.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Thanks Snake

I'm not sure about others, but this is getting a little frustrating!

Wave (b) of c in the last leg of the Double Three - the Triangle,  is a triangle itself. This means the d and e waves are yet to complete. Confused yet?

Even though there's good evidence that a double three was unfolding, it's still painfully difficult trying to get the edge on this correction. Nothing can be more confusing than a sub-wave within a triangle being a triangle as well. It creates misleading conclusions and subsequently incorrect entry positions for those who want to trade the thrust out of the Double Three. 

I mentioned in a previous post that if you can grasp identifying patterns early in the process then the better off you are. It is also true that the patterns themselves repeat over and over - however, they are at different time scales and look slightly different every time, but the internal structures obey certain rules that make them identifiable.

In this double three, there is at least another double three, and several triangles (plus the standard zig-zags and flats). Triangles are especially important as they usually signify an end of a trend or a correction will shortly follow.

Triangles occur in wave 4 and B positions (and sometimes at the end of corrections like this double three).

Wave c of the triangle below is a zig-zag correction (5-3-5). Wave (b) of this zig-zag is a Triangle itself, with 5 waves before and after it. These substructures form a zig-zag correction - thus forming wave c of the major triangle below.

I've delved into some detail here - as it is so absolutely important to understand what is actually happening to the best of one's ability. It also highlights that there is a lot to learn - EW isn't a walk in the park and many people give up because it "doesn't work".

Even though you may not trade at this time scale. Each pattern rolls up to form a bigger pattern, and all the time giving clues as to what's about to happen. Therefore understanding the patterns is crucial.

I use a 1hour chart when I want a bigger picture view, but I'll usually use the 15min and 5min charts (sometimes even 1minute). Going higher in timescale can mean you miss waves or miss the meaning of the wave (eg triangle, or expanded flat).

Enough for tonight my brain is starting to hurt


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi OzWaveGuy,
> 
> ....It appears to me that the 5 wave down pattern does not meet EW rules as in conjuction with the 5 wave move up we have a total of 10 waves of the same degree in the completed pattern. I would have thought that you should only have a total of 8 waves in a completed pattern.
> 
> I guess that it could be argued that in fact I don't have a completed pattern because I am mixing two degrees (levels).  Any opinions would be sincerely appreciated.




No, I think you've got a reasonable chart there Rudy. A possible 5 waves down (I say possible because as you've pointed out 5 waves down hasn't occured as yet) means that there is a bigger correction unfolding at the next degree of trend (which I personally believe is the case).

I wrote about the implications of 5 waves down on the XAO some weeks back, located here --->https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=358838&postcount=5586

It received some attention from the non-EW folks as I was calling for 1500points on the XAO should 5 waves unfold in the near term. As you know, 5 waves down means a 3 wave correction followed by another 5 waves to complete a corrective 5-3-5 zig-zag structure.

Cheers

OWG


----------



## MongrelSun

I have only been following Elliot Wave for about 18 months to date so I am a bit reluctant to push my opinion at this time but I wanted to provide a second possibility to what is happening with the double three.  My count places the double three as wave B of a higher degree B of wave 4 or wave 2 of wave 5 down (of C or 3 at the next higher degree).

The count is actually from my XJO chart but I believe it fits well on the XAO as well.

Also Bourse doesn't have much in the way of chart marking tools as far as I have been able to locate and I am still trying to organise all the different degrees in my own head so my appologies for the poor elliot wave labeling


----------



## tech/a

A simplified weekly count.


----------



## Rudy

MongrelSun said:


> I have only been following Elliot Wave for about 18 months to date so I am a bit reluctant to push my opinion at this time but I wanted to provide a second possibility to what is happening with the double three.  My count places the double three as wave B of a higher degree B of wave 4 or wave 2 of wave 5 down (of C or 3 at the next higher degree).
> 
> The count is actually from my XJO chart but I believe it fits well on the XAO as well.
> 
> Also Bourse doesn't have much in the way of chart marking tools as far as I have been able to locate and I am still trying to organise all the different degrees in my own head so my appologies for the poor elliot wave labeling




Hi MongrelSun,

I have a fairly convoluted way of labeling my charts. I save my chart as a file from my charting software and then import it into "Paint".  I use the Paint program to draw any lines I wish to put on the chart and then save it as a .jpg file.  Once I have the .jpg file I import it into my photo editing software and put in whatever text I want on the chart.

It's a pity that it's a two step process but at least I can get the result that I want.

Cheers

Rudy


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Thanks Snake
> 
> I'm not sure about others, but this is getting a little frustrating!
> 
> Wave (b) of c in the last leg of the Double Three - the Triangle,  is a triangle itself. This means the d and e waves are yet to complete. Confused yet?
> 
> Even though there's good evidence that a double three was unfolding, it's still painfully difficult trying to get the edge on this correction. Nothing can be more confusing than a sub-wave within a triangle being a triangle as well. It creates misleading conclusions and subsequently incorrect entry positions for those who want to trade the thrust out of the Double Three.
> 
> I mentioned in a previous post that if you can grasp identifying patterns early in the process then the better off you are. It is also true that the patterns themselves repeat over and over - however, they are at different time scales and look slightly different every time, but the internal structures obey certain rules that make them identifiable.
> 
> In this double three, there is at least another double three, and several triangles (plus the standard zig-zags and flats). Triangles are especially important as they usually signify an end of a trend or a correction will shortly follow.
> 
> Triangles occur in wave 4 and B positions (and sometimes at the end of corrections like this double three).
> 
> Wave c of the triangle below is a zig-zag correction (5-3-5). Wave (b) of this zig-zag is a Triangle itself, with 5 waves before and after it. These substructures form a zig-zag correction - thus forming wave c of the major triangle below.
> 
> I've delved into some detail here - as it is so absolutely important to understand what is actually happening to the best of one's ability. It also highlights that there is a lot to learn - EW isn't a walk in the park and many people give up because it "doesn't work".
> 
> Even though you may not trade at this time scale. Each pattern rolls up to form a bigger pattern, and all the time giving clues as to what's about to happen. Therefore understanding the patterns is crucial.
> 
> I use a 1hour chart when I want a bigger picture view, but I'll usually use the 15min and 5min charts (sometimes even 1minute). Going higher in timescale can mean you miss waves or miss the meaning of the wave (eg triangle, or expanded flat).
> 
> Enough for tonight my brain is starting to hurt





Hi OWG,

I appreciate that you have taken the time to label the complex corrective wave 4 that's currently underway as it is a real brain teaser.  Any time I get impatient with the time it is taking to complete I remind myself that it took around two months for wave 2 to complete and wave 4 has only been underway for a little over a month.

Cheers

Rudy


----------



## MongrelSun

Heya Rudy,

I have played around a bit with copying charts to paint and labeling them there but was a bit rushed this morning when I posted it so just went with what Bourse had to offer.  It was enough to show what I wanted to show, although to see it you have to open the chart up in a new window


----------



## OzWaveGuy

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=376372&postcount=275 , wave d up, appears underway.

Merry XMAS for those who celebrate it.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=376372&postcount=275 , wave d up, appears underway.
> 
> Merry XMAS for those who celebrate it.




Hi OWG,

As wave circle 'a' was an impulse, would you expect wave circle 'c' to be another impulse or by the guideline of Alternation would it probably be an ending diagonal? 

I read your article on the XAO where you gave your long, medium and short term forecast with huge interest. I think that my view of the 5 waves down is fairly similar to yours and would welcome your comments on it.




As can be seen from the chart I think that the 21st November was the end of the first 3 waves down and that we are currently in the formation of corrective wave (4).  I was delighted at your labeling of the current highly complex wave circle 'b' and whole heartedly agree with it.  I have called it wave (b) as I am not sure how to get the circle labeling. Completion of wave (c) would in my mind complete wave A which is the first of 3 waves (waves A, B & C) required to complete corrective wave (4) on my chart.

On my chart I have shown the ABC corrective wave as a 'flat' pattern but I am not suggesting that this will be the case as a Zigzag or Triangle pattern is possible. In fact as wave (2) was a sharp, the likelihood of wave (4) remaining in a frustrating sideways moving complex pattern like a triangle for a few months seems more likely.  I think that the main point to come out of the pattern is that in spite of the extremely negative news articles that we are bombarded with on a daily basis,  the market appears to be holding strong at the current levels. Perhaps the US market is holding fire for an 'Obama bounce' in January as his great oratory skills are used to light a fuse of hope into the American public. We can only watch how things reveal themselves in the coming weeks.

My current EW count has the XJO moving north over the next few week/months in a sideways pattern possibly completing somewhere between 4158 and 4350 at best before diving down into our looming dreaded wave (5) pattern.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

from https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=376372&postcount=275

It appears (finally) that yesterday's trading completed the final leg of the double 3 that we have been monitoring for some weeks. A series of upwards thrusts should follow.

I've added some discussion of Fibonacci in the chart below. Fibonacci + EW make a good combination to help identify possible ending points for price and time. The Triangle portion in the chart took 2.58 times longer than the zig-zag. I was sorta hoping for 161% and this was initially implied, but instead, a 'sub-triangle' developed  (labeled) and pushed the time frame further out to almost 261%.

For the keen EWers in the forum, this double three should have been interesting to see unfold as they are rarely seen at this scale.


----------



## Cartman

ok i may have overstepped my welcome early on this thread --- but i have a serious question and i dont need the answer for myself cause im happy with my own system developement at this stage --- but i am interested with regard to the analysis which has been presented in the last few posts (which is bludy excellent by the way !!!) ---- at what point can we/do we take an entry/exit based on the analysis  --- and on what TIME FRAME do we make that entry ?? 

ie do E/W's drop a time frame or two when the trigger phase is looming and what is that time frame??

my biggest turn off with Elliot stuff is the ambiguity of the 'pull the trigger' phase  and the size of the stop loss required to stay in the position if yr not quite on the money --- clarification of this and how an E/W approaches it may be interesting from we uneducated E/W p.o.view


----------



## OzWaveGuy

A short update on the next 'leg' of the XAO....

The chart below provides possible targets for the XAO - around 4000 points being a strong target at this stage - until the unfolding waves provide more clues. The 3950 target on the XAO is where wave 'c' circle would equal wave 'a' circle. It is also a point of reasonable resistance with several sub-waves within the previous wave 4 triangle bouncing off 3950.

Another target to watch for (not shown) is a 23.2% retracement of wave (3) at 3875 points. Although this level doesn't appear to be a main support/resistance level based on short term and long term historical touch points.

Sometime back I discussed the XAO being at a pivotal juncture - either it continues to climb from here (hence, 'Alt C' in the chart is the bottom of the zig-zag correction and the bulls have their way) or we are in another corrective phase (likely) before another leg down commences into wave (5).

If wave (4) finishes as shown on the chart, then this would be most unsatisfactory, as wave (4) and wave (2) (not shown) would be very similar in shape, time and price. The markets will always try to alternate - so just when you think you've 'got-it' the market does something very different. Hence a triangle is very plausible and usually appears in wave 4 positions.

If the triangle case is assumed (for the moment), then the completion of this leg up will form wave 'A' of a large triangle, wave 'B' down would probably drop to new lows - perhaps quite swiftly as wave 'A' is taking sometime to develop. 

If the Triangle scenario is correct, then this implies a sideways market (perhaps within a 1000 point contracting range) for several months.

In an upcoming post I'll discuss more on a possible triangle scenario and the time taken for it to complete.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> As wave circle 'a' was an impulse, would you expect wave circle 'c' to be another impulse or by the guideline of Alternation would it probably be an ending diagonal?




Hi Rudy. See my previous post as to some possibilities.

In terms of what this next small leg will look like, either 5 waves up to 'c' circle or even an ending diagonal is perfectly acceptable. Either way, this will form a zig-zag (5-3-5) correction if we are assuming that the market is correcting upwards.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Cartman said:


> at what point can we/do we take an entry/exit based on the analysis  --- and on what TIME FRAME do we make that entry ??




This is a good question but is highly dependent on the type of trading one undertakes and the time scale of that trading.

For example, it would be conceivable to enter a long position at the completion of wave 'c' or 'e' (with stops at or near each of the wave end points). For those who are more risk adverse, one may consider entering a long position once a breakout has been confirmed and enter at the bottom of the first wave 2 position to trade wave 3+ upwards.

As an option trader, I would be hesitant to enter at wave 'c' as you have no way of telling how long 'd' and 'e' will take to develop - unless you want to trade individual legs of the correction. As an option writer, the whole double three is a bonus as the options you write will be affected by time decay.

Of course, these are not recommendations, just observations on some examples of using EW. There are many other ways one may choose to trade impulse moves and corrections.


----------



## Cartman

OzWaveGuy said:


> This is a good question but is highly dependent on the type of trading one undertakes and the time scale of that trading.
> 
> For example, it would be conceivable to enter a long position at the completion of wave 'c' or 'e' (with stops at or near each of the wave end points). For those who are more risk adverse, one may consider entering a long position once a breakout has been confirmed and enter at the bottom of the first wave 2 position to trade wave 3+ upwards.
> 
> As an option trader, I would be hesitant to enter at wave 'c' as you have no way of telling how long 'd' and 'e' will take to develop - unless you want to trade individual legs of the correction. As an option writer, the whole double three is a bonus as the options you write will be affected by time decay.
> 
> Of course, these are not recommendations, just observations on some examples of using EW. There are many other ways one may choose to trade impulse moves and corrections.




thank u for the reply Oz--

if ur trading options i can see how this type of analysis could be useful --- longer term view looking for the bigger moves in a more flexible time frame --- nothing wrong with that --


----------



## Rudy

Cartman said:


> thank u for the reply Oz--
> 
> if ur trading options i can see how this type of analysis could be useful --- longer term view looking for the bigger moves in a more flexible time frame --- nothing wrong with that --




Hi Cartman,

There are a number of trading strategies for trading EW. Naturally enough the best trades are the impulse waves. In bull markets the impulse waves are obvious for medium to longer term time frame investing/trading but I know of EW traders who trade short term and they like trading the 'c' wave in a corrective pattern as well when we have a 'Flat' or a 'Zigzag'.  In each case the 'c' wave is an impulse and quite often provides the 'best trading ride' for a shorter term trader.

Cheers


----------



## Cartman

Rudy said:


> Hi Cartman,
> 
> There are a number of trading strategies for trading EW. Naturally enough the best trades are the impulse waves. In bull markets the impulse waves are obvious for medium to longer term time frame investing/trading but I know of EW traders who trade short term and they like trading the 'c' wave in a corrective pattern as well when we have a 'Flat' or a 'Zigzag'.  In each case the 'c' wave is an impulse and quite often provides the 'best trading ride' for a shorter term trader.
> 
> Cheers




yeah cheers Rudy --- i was a bit cheeky early on this thread  ---- i see the merit in the quality and depth of the analysis u guys put in --- must be bludy exhausting though ----   i guess i just have a more simplistic way of dealing with the market cycles but funnily enuff my 'momentum' style trading actually mirrors the E/W concepts in a way --- i reckon i would just have a lot of trouble picking exact entries unless i addded a shorter time cycle into the equation  ----- and E/W as a stand alone an. appears to need wider stops to function efficiently ----- but my view is very narrow and uneducated on this topic and should be treated that way ---- good luck with it


----------



## Rudy

Cartman said:


> yeah cheers Rudy --- i was a bit cheeky early on this thread  ---- i see the merit in the quality and depth of the analysis u guys put in --- must be bludy exhausting though ----   i guess i just have a more simplistic way of dealing with the market cycles but funnily enuff my 'momentum' style trading actually mirrors the E/W concepts in a way --- i reckon i would just have a lot of trouble picking exact entries unless i addded a shorter time cycle into the equation  ----- and E/W as a stand alone an. appears to need wider stops to function efficiently ----- but my view is very narrow and uneducated on this topic and should be treated that way ---- good luck with it




Hi Cartman,

What I love about EW is that it does give you some idea about what is coming once you identify the correct pattern. The period that we have just been through where we were painfully moving through a very complex corrective pattern is quite rare.  It is usually easier to determine where we are in a cycle.  Thankfully we had OzWaveGuy doing such a great job giving us an excellent EW count through that period.  The recent move in the XJO where it is forming the last wave of the A wave (wave circle c) is obviously an impulse wave as you can see from the chart below. I have labeled it wave (c) because I can't get the right symbol to label it a circle c but you will understand what I am saying on the chart.

As you can see we are about to move into wave 'v' (the 5th wave) of this impulse wave.  Now this could mean that we are getting to the last sub wave in this particular impulse wave. We will have to see if wave 'v' has any extensions but at least it gives us a warning that we might have to keep our finger on the 'sell' button of our long positions.

Now as wave 'v' is often around the same range as wave 'i' and we know that wave 'i' was 164 points (3658 - 3494) therefore wave 'v' could top around 3839 (3675 + 164).

Another cross check is worked out by knowing that the first impulse wave of this Zigzag pattern had a range of 525 points. This was wave (a) and it started on the 21st November and completed on the 28th November. 61.8% of 525 points gives you around 324 points.  If you add 324 to 3675 (termination of wave 'iv') you get a target of 3818.  

So we have two different methods getting slightly different target levels namely 3818 and 3839.  I would use these target levels as likely turning points for the current move.

I personally don't find the analysis exhausting but more 'interesting' as it is a passion of mine as it no doubt is for OWG.

When you have such a clear picture of what is happening it makes trading in any time frame much easier as potential entries and exits become rather obvious.  As EW works in any time frame you can apply your analysis to the time frame that you are interested in.

Cheers


----------



## Nick Radge

Rudi,
The move into your wave-i is a 3-wave...?

The recent complexity has been clear on the EOD charts. This is the chart we've been using for most of 2008. The major lows offered wave equality at the 3200 mark which also completed with a blow off low (wide range, high close). The move off that low point to wave-i or -a was clean and has been followed by choppy weakness since, indicative of a -ii or -b. This choppiness also tagged the 50.0% retracement which is the minimum expectation for that part of the pattern. The larger pattern suggests more upside is due, regardless of whether we've completed a wave-[C] low of the alternate wave-(3) low. The guide from here is how prices will rise and how prices react at the wave-a/-c equality point at 4000. If prices steam through 4000 without pause we can conclude we're seeing a minor degree wave-iii higher. If however, they pause and reverse at 4000, we're still on track for a corrective wave-(4) scenario. It all hinges at 4000.

From a trading perspective one should be long as this up wave traces out. I am personally long CEY, BSL, NAB, DOM, IRE, DJS and ASX. 





_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision_


----------



## Stormin_Norman

nice chart. thanks.


----------



## Rudy

Nick Radge said:


> Rudi,
> The move into your wave-i is a 3-wave...?
> 
> The recent complexity has been clear on the EOD charts. This is the chart we've been using for most of 2008. The major lows offered wave equality at the 3200 mark which also completed with a blow off low (wide range, high close). The move off that low point to wave-i or -a was clean and has been followed by choppy weakness since, indicative of a -ii or -b. This choppiness also tagged the 50.0% retracement which is the minimum expectation for that part of the pattern. The larger pattern suggests more upside is due, regardless of whether we've completed a wave-[C] low of the alternate wave-(3) low. The guide from here is how prices will rise and how prices react at the wave-a/-c equality point at 4000. If prices steam through 4000 without pause we can conclude we're seeing a minor degree wave-iii higher. If however, they pause and reverse at 4000, we're still on track for a corrective wave-(4) scenario. It all hinges at 4000.
> 
> From a trading perspective one should be long as this up wave traces out. I am personally long CEY, BSL, NAB, DOM, IRE, DJS and ASX.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision_




Hi Nick,

I believe that we are seeing much the same scenario. I agree with the labeling of your wave [3] and the expectation of a corrective wave [4] through an ABC corrective pattern.  On my charts I label these as waves (3) and (4) but a rose is still a rose......

The move from the low of the 21st November 2008 I have labeled a wave (a), you have labeled a wave 'a'.  I saw that move as an impulse wave terminating on the 28th November 2008.  From there to the 23rd December we completed wave (b).  The move from that date to the 2 January 2009 created the first 4 sub waves of my (c) wave.  I labeled these sub waves i, ii, iii and iv.  I do not believe that the action we saw today was an extension of sub wave iv.  I could be wrong but it looks to me that we had a truncated wave v form thus completing wave (c) which in turn also completed wave A of the corrective wave (4).

I therefore believe that we have now commenced forming the first leg down of corrective wave B.





I too expect that wave [4] will terminate somewhere near the 4000 mark and definitely in the price range of sub wave 4 of wave [3].


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Nick Radge said:


> It all hinges at 4000




Good discussion and it certainly does!

The 4000 resistance level appears in a number of analysis. The length of the impluse move from the 21st Nov to the 28th Nov can be added to the end of the recent double three and gives 3980points (based on wave equality).

In addition, looking at a 60min chart of the XAO from the 29th Dec @ 2pm onwards, the current wave 1 and 2 (where 2 appears to be a flat) one will obtain just on 4000 points based on the basic assumptions below in estimating end points of impulse waves using price alone. 

This will usually provide a reasonable estimate when wave 3 is the extended wave.


----------



## Rockon2

Spot on I reckon OzWaveGuy  :iagree:


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Good discussion and it certainly does!
> 
> The 4000 resistance level appears in a number of analysis. The length of the impluse move from the 21st Nov to the 28th Nov can be added to the end of the recent double three and gives 3980points (based on wave equality).
> 
> In addition, looking at a 60min chart of the XAO from the 29th Dec @ 2pm onwards, the current wave 1 and 2 (where 2 appears to be a flat) one will obtain just on 4000 points based on the basic assumptions below in estimating end points of impulse waves using price alone.
> 
> This will usually provide a reasonable estimate when wave 3 is the extended wave.




Hi OWG,

Your post is brilliant!!  Even though I look at the XJO and you look at the XAO they are obviously very closely aligned.  My earlier post had wave i (equivalent to your wave 1) starting on the 23rd December which I can now see is incorrect.  Keep up the good work. 

Cheers

Rudy


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Nzd/Usd*

 - Hey there  Good  Lookin ' ................. 
//////////////////////////////////////////////////

--------------------------------------------------


----------



## MARKETWAVES

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
  Here's  another  look  at  the  *Nzd /Usd ..........* 

It appears that The  Bulls  are  enjoying themselves .....

----------------------- --------------------- --------------- ----------
Only a Probability ! ............................. Not Cast in Stone !

-----------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## Rockon2

Love it Marketwaves  



:band       Hey, hey, good lookin', 
Whatcha got cookin'? 
How's about cookin' somethin' up with me? 


http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=OxB1t2EEK0M


----------



## OzWaveGuy

I thought I'd post an update to the Oct 08 long term primary wave count.

So far the XAO has been following the downtrend discussed some months ago and has been closely hitting some of the Fibonnaci targets discussed for wave 4 bounces. This leads me to believe that the longer term count is holding firm.

Under this scenario, we are in the wave (4) correction of wave 'A' circle, which may turn out to be a triangle and last for some months. Once completed, a significant thrust downwards may occur and be equal to the length of wave (1). I have updated the potential end point of wave 'A' circle to 1870 points where this target coincides with wave (5) = wave (1).

From a social trend standpoint, Job Losses in the US and China appear to be escalating, Military action is increasing in addition to US troops being deployed on US soil as a civilian control strategy should the worsening financial (or other) crisis drive unrest.

If Wave (5) down does eventuate then I would expect a worsening social environment, with more military action, protectionism, bankruptcies, internet 're-structuring' and job losses to name a few.

Whilst many will not agree with the above analysis, there is an increasing likelihood that this scenario is playing out. A new low from here will almost guarantee the primary degree (or higher) correction scenario as a result of the increasing negative social mood.

Note: I have used a linear scale to determine the possible downside targets. Semi-Log scale will provide different Fibonacci downside targets (2650 as end of 'A' circle)


----------



## OzWaveGuy

The market action today can be viewed in different ways.

One interpretation (currently preferred and shown below) is that the thrust out of the Double 3 (wave b circle) has now completed. This thrust has traversed 61.8% of wave 'a' circle (the thrust preceding the double 3) which is a solid Fibonacci relationship between waves traveling in the same direction. In addition, one could interpret 5 waves up is complete assuming the double 3 ended a little sooner than previously discussed (shown). Using the basic Fibonacci relationships within this latest thrust - wave (iii) is almost 161% of wave (i) and wave (v) is almost 138% of wave (i).

Also, another compelling argument is that 5 small waves down from yesterday's high is complete.

As a personal note: I exited all long positions yesterday, not because of this analysis on the XAO (which I just finished tonight), but because the wave structure on the XMJ didn't seem to support further upside. One of the reasons I'm bearish on the XAO in the short term for further downside is that a triangle appears to have formed as wave 'b' circle on the XMJ (on the XAO it was a double 3). As many EWers know, a triangle implies an impending change in trend (or correction) is at hand. 

Since the completion of the XMJ triangle (will post something later on this), 5 waves up can be considered completed.

I was sorta kicking myself for not picking up on this potential scenario on the XAO a little sooner, but the wave between the end of the double 3 - wave 'e' and the end of wave (i) appeared to be a 3 wave move - however looking at a smaller time scale, it clearly shows a 5 wave move with wave 5 the longest wave.

There are other interpretations (an ending diagonal), but as it stands tonight, the wave structure appears to count best as shown below. Therefore its highly possible that the XAO won't see the 4000 point mark in the short term.


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## Graeme

Hi OzWaveGuy,  your last count is what I have also.  I think we've just started a B to test support around 3450, then we'll have a C back up to 4200-ish


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## OzWaveGuy

Elliott wave works in 5 waves up followed by 3 waves down (in its basic interpretation). However, what does it mean when 5 waves up followed by 5 waves down at the same degree can be seen?


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## OzWaveGuy

Graeme said:


> Hi OzWaveGuy,  your last count is what I have also.  I think we've just started a B to test support around 3450, then we'll have a C back up to 4200-ish




Graeme, in the scenario you describe, what type of correction do you think will play out? It's possible that a flat could play out to take it above 4000.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Elliott wave works in 5 waves up followed by 3 waves down (in its basic interpretation). However, what does it mean when 5 waves up followed by 5 waves down at the same degree can be seen?




Hi OWG,

I really appreciate you taking the time to provide an explanation on how it is possible to get what appears to be a completed pattern of 5 waves up followed by 5 waves down. It has always been a problem for me as it appeared to be in breach of Elliott Wave principles.

Your explanation appears sensible to me.

Cheers

Rudy


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> The market action today can be viewed in different ways.
> 
> One interpretation (currently preferred and shown below) is that the thrust out of the Double 3 (wave b circle) has now completed. This thrust has traversed 61.8% of wave 'a' circle (the thrust preceding the double 3) which is a solid Fibonacci relationship between waves traveling in the same direction. In addition, one could interpret 5 waves up is complete assuming the double 3 ended a little sooner than previously discussed (shown). Using the basic Fibonacci relationships within this latest thrust - wave (iii) is almost 161% of wave (i) and wave (v) is almost 138% of wave (i).
> 
> Also, another compelling argument is that 5 small waves down from yesterday's high is complete.
> 
> As a personal note: I exited all long positions yesterday, not because of this analysis on the XAO (which I just finished tonight), but because the wave structure on the XMJ didn't seem to support further upside. One of the reasons I'm bearish on the XAO in the short term for further downside is that a triangle appears to have formed as wave 'b' circle on the XMJ (on the XAO it was a double 3). As many EWers know, a triangle implies an impending change in trend (or correction) is at hand.
> 
> Since the completion of the XMJ triangle (will post something later on this), 5 waves up can be considered completed.
> 
> I was sorta kicking myself for not picking up on this potential scenario on the XAO a little sooner, but the wave between the end of the double 3 - wave 'e' and the end of wave (i) appeared to be a 3 wave move - however looking at a smaller time scale, it clearly shows a 5 wave move with wave 5 the longest wave.
> 
> There are other interpretations (an ending diagonal), but as it stands tonight, the wave structure appears to count best as shown below. Therefore its highly possible that the XAO won't see the 4000 point mark in the short term.





Hi OWG,

I also believe that we have commenced the wave B in your scenario. One of the reasons why it appeared to me that we were about to enter into a period of the market moving down was the perfect EW pattern that was being created by the price of oil.  Below is the WTIC chart which is the Light Crude Oil.






As can be seen it has entered into a wave 5iii phase of the cycle.  Wave 5iiii must terminate lower than the $35.13 level and even an optimistic view would have the bottom for oil to be around the $30 mark if not lower. I have found that the price of oil is quite representative of many other commodities and hence to me I could therefore sense that we were in for a number of down days for the market.

Coming back to the XJO (ASX200).  The start of the A wave was 3217.  The top of the A wave was 3818 so we had a range of 601 points. If wave B is a Zigzag then we can expect a fall of at least 20% and more likely either 38.2% or 50.0%.  Hence for a Zigzag I would expect falls of between 230 and 300 points.

If wave B is a Flat then we can expect a fall of at least 70%. Wave B's normally fall between 95~140% of the wave A range.

I don't know if it's my instincts or my subconscious "wish" but I think that it will be a Zigzag. Part of my reasoning for the Zigzag is the very strong support that built up around the 3500 level of the XJO and it will take some pretty negative sentiment to break down through that level.


Cheers


----------



## MARKETWAVES

Dow Jones 

----------------------------------------
 Trying  to close  the  Gap  ? .........

----------------------------------------


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*US Dollar .................*

  CHART UPDATE :

Strong is  this  1st trade-set up of  the  year , 
 overall , it  still looks  like  a bullish  continuation

and  the  Rally  continues .............. ! 
 Stay Tuned -
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////



--------------------------------------------------------------






-------------------------------------------------------------


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## MARKETWAVES

Dow  Jones 

  Probable  Wave-count ................

---------------------------------------------
////////////////////////////////////////////////////


----------



## Graeme

OzWaveGuy said:


> Graeme, in the scenario you describe, what type of correction do you think will play out? It's possible that a flat could play out to take it above 4000.




Sure, I think the B will be tricky. Maybe it's sideways from here like you say.  I lean toward a double zig zag so we can test support again.  I'm still a novice for EW and only really look at daily charts, so I could be completely wrong


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> The market action today can be viewed in different ways.
> 
> One interpretation (currently preferred and shown below) is that the thrust out of the Double 3 (wave b circle) has now completed. This thrust has traversed 61.8% of wave 'a' circle (the thrust preceding the double 3) which is a solid Fibonacci relationship between waves traveling in the same direction. In addition, one could interpret 5 waves up is complete assuming the double 3 ended a little sooner than previously discussed (shown). Using the basic Fibonacci relationships within this latest thrust - wave (iii) is almost 161% of wave (i) and wave (v) is almost 138% of wave (i).
> 
> Also, another compelling argument is that 5 small waves down from yesterday's high is complete.
> 
> As a personal note: I exited all long positions yesterday, not because of this analysis on the XAO (which I just finished tonight), but because the wave structure on the XMJ didn't seem to support further upside. One of the reasons I'm bearish on the XAO in the short term for further downside is that a triangle appears to have formed as wave 'b' circle on the XMJ (on the XAO it was a double 3). As many EWers know, a triangle implies an impending change in trend (or correction) is at hand.
> 
> Since the completion of the XMJ triangle (will post something later on this), 5 waves up can be considered completed.
> 
> I was sorta kicking myself for not picking up on this potential scenario on the XAO a little sooner, but the wave between the end of the double 3 - wave 'e' and the end of wave (i) appeared to be a 3 wave move - however looking at a smaller time scale, it clearly shows a 5 wave move with wave 5 the longest wave.
> 
> There are other interpretations (an ending diagonal), but as it stands tonight, the wave structure appears to count best as shown below. Therefore its highly possible that the XAO won't see the 4000 point mark in the short term.




Hi OWG,

I believe that the scenario that you propose is the highest probability scenario.  As wave circle c completed wave A with a 3 wave pattern then my conclusion is that corrective wave (4) must be a Flat and cannot be a Zigzag.

A question for you.  Would you consider a lower probability scenario where wave A is a triangle with the general shape shown in the following chart/figure?

NOTE: I have for the purposes of this drawing changed your circle waves to waves with ( )'s as I haven't got time to draw circles around them but I think you will get the gist of what I am proposing.




I guess that strictly speaking the pattern suggested is illegal as waves (a) through (e) need to all be corrective waves and waves (a) and (c) are in fact impulse waves.  I have probably answered my own question but would like your opinion as well.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

For those trading using EW as the underlying analysis method - this may be of interest.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> I guess that strictly speaking the pattern suggested is illegal as waves (a) through (e) need to all be corrective waves and waves (a) and (c) are in fact impulse waves.  I have probably answered my own question but would like your opinion as well.




Yep, it's a tough one considering that there are impulse moves. I'm still counting on a triangle or a flat to play out.

Hence, sideways motion would ideally suit a wave (4) pattern, considering wave (2) retraced 50% and took 2 months to develop. This could mean wave (4) if a triangle (or flat) could be 161% of the time of wave (2) - so perhaps the end of Feb or early March as a possible completion zone. Still a little too early to tell yet. Of course, this doesn't rule out a new low as the b wave leg unfolds.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Based on the recent market movements since Friday and following on from here --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=382786&postcount=303

Using some of the basic EW assumptions here --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=381327&postcount=296

One could make some assumptions: If a 5 wave move downwards is unfolding, the end point would end up around 3393 points. Following would be a 3 wave correction followed by 5 more waves down (probably to a new low) to complete wave B, before heading back up to wave C


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## Boggo

Chart of XJO with Wave 5 target area.

This could drag on for a while though, sit back and watch now.

(click to expand)


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## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Based on the recent market movements since Friday and following on from here --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=382786&postcount=303
> 
> Using some of the basic EW assumptions here --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=381327&postcount=296
> 
> One could make some assumptions: If a 5 wave move downwards is unfolding, the end point would end up around 3393 points. Following would be a 3 wave correction followed by 5 more waves down (probably to a new low) to complete wave B, before heading back up to wave C




Hi OWG,

I may not be correctly understanding what you are saying.  I hope that you are not saying that corrective wave (4) was completed last week and we are starting a 5 wave move down terminating as wave (5).

I can't see how the high of last week could be the termination point of wave (4) as we did not get the wave A,B and C of the next lower degree. I think that a more likely scenario is that we are in the wave B portion of corrective wave (4) and that as the circle a, b and c waves  were a 3 wave pattern then corrective wave (4) is on that count a Flat pattern.  Hence I would suggest that the EW count is probably as depicted in the chart/figure (XJO version) below.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> I may not be correctly understanding what you are saying.  I hope that you are not saying that corrective wave (4) was completed last week and we are starting a 5 wave move down terminating as wave (5)




Wave (4) still underway. The first 5 down (as in your chart) is underway.


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## Lachlan6

We may have just completed the five down now in the short term. If so expect a three wave correctionary bounce into the area marked, before the market rolls over to the downside again. Some divergence at play down here suggesting a short term bottom has been reached.


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## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> .....One of the reasons why it appeared to me that we were about to enter into a period of the market moving down was the perfect EW pattern that was being created by the price of oil......





Hi Rudy,

My view is that markets rarely influence each other. Whilst markets do get "in sync" and trend for periods of time eg S&P500 and XAO, looking at the finer details of the moves within the trends, they regularly demonstrate moves in the opposite direction to what one would think 'should' happen. 

There's even a thread in ASX Chat forum that discusses these divergent moves https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13652

I try not to let other markets dictate what analysis  should be prescribed. The facts are usually in the chart you are looking at.  Otherwise if you did, what market(s) would you choose? and how much influence would you believe they play? This is what the mainstream media usually use as 'their' analysis, and is nothing to do with elliott wave analysis whatsoever.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Hi Rudy,
> 
> My view is that markets rarely influence each other. Whilst markets do get "in sync" and trend for periods of time eg S&P500 and XAO, looking at the finer details of the moves within the trends, they regularly demonstrate moves in the opposite direction to what one would think 'should' happen.
> 
> There's even a thread in ASX Chat forum that discusses these divergent moves https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13652
> 
> I try not to let other markets dictate what analysis  should be prescribed. The facts are usually in the chart you are looking at.  Otherwise if you did, what market(s) would you choose? and how much influence would you believe they play? This is what the mainstream media usually use as 'their' analysis, and is nothing to do with elliott wave analysis whatsoever.





Hi OWG,

I understand the essense of what you are saying.  There is no doubt that markets do 'influence' each other but it is also true that they are not in 'lock step' with each other. For example if the US market went down 300 points overnight it would definitely have an influence on our market. The degree of influence is obvously determined by many factors and this quite often leads to some surprising results.

I do however understand what you are saying though and agree with you that each market is self contained from an EW perspective and you don't really need another market to help you with your analysis.  I very closely watch both the XJO and the S&P500 and they do have quite different patterns whilst at the same time tending to keep to similar major cycle counts. By that I mean that there is no way that the XJO would be in a wave 3 when the S&P500 is in a wave 4 in a major cycle.  I find it quite helpful to look at the interaction of say the S&P500 and the XJO and in another case perhaps the price of oil and other commodity patterns.  Observing the interaction between different markets sometimes (but not always) gives you an edge in your analysis.


----------



## Page

I can understand the spirit of what you are trying to say. I agree that with National and International economic news, this market manipulates each other but another truth is that these markets are not bounded with each other. It is true what you have explained by the help of an example. I do agree with your point. However, there is sometimes news in the market but people depending on news and updates are frustrated because they do not find any fluctuation in that particular currency or in the market. I had been working as a dealer for a forex company. Moreover, in my working period I have seen many people losing their money in this market in no time the reason was lack of knowledge and greed to make money in a short period. 

Trading in this market requires patience and discipline in doubling your invested money. Keeping patience and discipline, I have learned through Insurance companies. What do these companies do they take your earned money for a particular time period and ensure you to double your money. You keep patience and discipline for it and after the maturity of that period; you get your money with interest. The reason is that the period given to you to withdraw your money. You will get the money at that time and cannot withdraw in between. Therefore, you wait for that period and get double amount what you have invested.


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## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> For example if the US market went down 300 points overnight it would definitely have an influence on our market. The degree of influence is obvously determined by many factors and this quite often leads to some surprising results




Speaking of surprising, it reminds me of Nov 21st, the S&P500 lost around 50 points the night before (-450 on the DJI), so the expectation was a huge decline on the XAO. However, during the previous trading day, the XAO  contained a very small secret - a small triangle was evident and indicated a change of trend or a correction was at hand. The obvious key was that 5 larger waves down was about to complete. A turn occurred at 1pm with a 190 point move to the upside and into the close with 50 points up for the day - the 5th wave down had completed at 1pm. 

The XAO told the story, not the S&P500. So what's the XAO? I treat it as the combined psychology of all the traders and investors. 

For example it was also the combined psychology of the ASF members who predicted the turn on the 21st even though they didn't know it -  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=364384&postcount=231 . Notice the last bar on the chart - it's the 20th of November, the members themselves indicated a turn was about to occur. Just like every major turn prior.

So the moral is, whilst markets may 'correlate', i try to avoid basing any analysis on external markets when looking at the XAO or other indexes. I may comment that markets appear 'in sync' for periods of time - but ultimately it is the chart that hides the truth, begging to be discovered


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## OzWaveGuy

As for the market action today and following on from here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=382786&postcount=303 

It looks as though a 3 wave move downwards is complete (in the form of a 5-3-5 zig-zag wave pattern). The push up today makes it a little too big to be a smaller correction as a subdivision of the thrust downwards. Something else may be unfolding.

Either there is still downside to go in the B leg of a triangle (or flat), but it must go up first in a 3 wave move before the downside kicks in again.

Note: See this posting https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=384380&postcount=314 on expanded flats, there was a reason I posted it when I did as it's possible that one may appear in a triangle leg - you may need to turn the chart upside down for this particular leg to make sense. Also a more complex correction downwards may play out with a flat (not necessarily an expanded one) being part of the correction itself.

OR

There could be further upside potential. A break above 3762 on the XAO would strongly suggest a different wave count is unfolding with more upside potential to follow. Like always, analysis of the waves in the short term will give more clues.


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## Lachlan6

So much for mybounce theory! Market tanking now. I spose the next question is how will this wave 4 pan out. In a larger triangle (now being the d wave) or just storm through to new lows. I will take another look at the end of today.


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## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> As for the market action today and following on from here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=382786&postcount=303
> 
> It looks as though a 3 wave move downwards is complete (in the form of a 5-3-5 zig-zag wave pattern). The push up today makes it a little too big to be a smaller correction as a subdivision of the thrust downwards. Something else may be unfolding.
> 
> Either there is still downside to go in the B leg of a triangle (or flat), but it must go up first in a 3 wave move before the downside kicks in again.
> 
> Note: See this posting https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=384380&postcount=314 on expanded flats, there was a reason I posted it when I did as it's possible that one may appear in a triangle leg - you may need to turn the chart upside down for this particular leg to make sense. Also a more complex correction downwards may play out with a flat (not necessarily an expanded one) being part of the correction itself.
> 
> OR
> 
> There could be further upside potential. A break above 3762 on the XAO would strongly suggest a different wave count is unfolding with more upside potential to follow. Like always, analysis of the waves in the short term will give more clues.




Hi OWG,

Here is an extract of a post that I did on another site yesterday near market close.

===============================================================================

_I thought that it may interest you to see what's been happening with the XJO since our top at that famous 3818 level. _




_Now I'm probably jumping the gun in the above chart labeling the termination point of wave (b) at 3690 but the fact that it was spot on a Fibonacci point tempted me greatly. Of course there are many other Fib points and we may go up even higher tomorrow (eg. 50.0%, 61.8%, etc). 

In fact there is nothing to say at this stage that we haven't even completed wave A yet. That's the beautiful thing about this EW stuff; it gives you the possible patterns but on occasions it takes time to determine which the correct pattern is._
==================================================================================

As it turned out my call was correct. The market opened today and plunged over 100 points. Fibonacci strikes again !

My view is that if wave A was completed as suggested in my post of the 13th January https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=384968&postcount=318 then wave B should retrace a minimum of 70% of wave A based on a Flat pattern scenario. In that scenario I still have us forming wave (a) of wave A.

If the XJO doesn't fall the anticipated 70% then my next scenario becomes the corrective triangle wave A that I posted in my post of the 11th January https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=384037&postcount=313.  This is the scenario where wave A in fact is still incomplete.


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## OzWaveGuy

Lachlan6 said:


> So much for mybounce theory! Market tanking now. I spose the next question is how will this wave 4 pan out. In a larger triangle (now being the d wave) or just storm through to new lows. I will take another look at the end of today.




Wave d?


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## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> ....probably jumping the gun in the above chart labeling the termination point of wave (b) at 3690 but the fact that it was spot on a Fibonacci point tempted me greatly. Of course there are many other Fib points and we may go up even higher tomorrow (eg. 50.0%, 61.8%, etc).




So what we have at the moment is a 3 wave decline with a 3 wave correction and another decline. I suspect that it's not a flat as the wave b you have hasn't traversed high enough (eg to 61.8% retrace or higher).

Whilst there are several possible interpretations, a double zig-zag with a joining X wave (your b) could unfold. 

In any case, the good news is: the case for an unfolding triangle or flat for the larger wave (4) correction becomes stronger - as a corrective leg down (for the larger wave b) is expected , and it could be a complex correction that will be hard to stay in front of.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> So what we have at the moment is a 3 wave decline with a 3 wave correction and another decline. I suspect that it's not a flat as the wave b you have hasn't traversed high enough (eg to 61.8% retrace or higher).
> 
> Whilst there are several possible interpretations, a double zig-zag with a joining X wave (your b) could unfold.
> 
> In any case, the good news is: the case for an unfolding triangle or flat for the larger wave (4) correction becomes stronger - as a corrective leg down (for the larger wave b) is expected , and it could be a complex correction that will be hard to stay in front of.




Hi OWG,

Well spotted. My wave (a) of this B wave certainly looks like the 3 wave move and the (b) wave certainly looks like the 3 wave move you describe.

The chart below shows what the picture looked like a couple of hours ago.





Ignore the i and ii labels I put on the chart as it looked like we were in the early stages of forming an impulse wave.

If the pattern for (c) does turn into another Zigzag it will ensure that the B wave will qualify for a Flat pattern for corrective wave (4).


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## OzWaveGuy

For those EWers that have been following along - anyone care to take a guess as to what happened at around 2:45 this afternoon. Something fairly significant has occurred and has probably removed a key long term scenario from a 'possibility' to 'very unlikely'.


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## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> For those EWers that have been following along - anyone care to take a guess as to what happened at around 2:45 this afternoon. Something fairly significant has occurred and has probably removed a key long term scenario from a 'possibility' to 'very unlikely'.




I'll bite.  What was that event?  Was it the fact that the market dropped below the start point of your circle c wave for wave A?


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## OzWaveGuy

It was indeed Rudy. This means the scenario for the "end of the bear market" from the low on the 21st Nov is no longer a valid interpretation. What would have made it valid was seeing 5 clear waves up from the low - which we did initially see a small 5 wave advance (to make wave 'a' circle upwards).

However, 5 larger waves up can no longer be considered, since the start point of the small second 5 wave advance shown as wave 'c' circle (or end of the double 3) has been broken by today's market action. It is still possible for the XAO to advance higher, but in a corrective capacity of higher complexity. This scenario will be a second count, and has been discussed in the past on some of the long term predication charts.

The long term primary count now starts to become a strong possibility with major new lows in the not so distant future. 

Following on from here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=385699&postcount=325 In the short term new lows should occur soon either as a result of the current wave (4) correction unfolding now or as wave (5) down commences a strong push down. I have updated the chart below to provide a possible path based on the 3 wave decline. An X wave joins the two 3 wave a-b-c corrections

A possible double zig-zag correction is unfolding for wave 'a' circle in the declining B leg of a flat or triangle. If true, wave 'b' circle up would be 3 waves and retrace 61% or more of wave 'a' circle down. Following would be 5 waves down to complete wave 'c' circle. The B leg would end up being a flat of some type.


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## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> It was indeed Rudy. This means the scenario for the "end of the bear market" from the low on the 21st Nov is no longer a valid interpretation. What would have made it valid was seeing 5 clear waves up from the low - which we did initially see a small 5 wave advance (to make wave 'a' circle upwards).
> 
> However, 5 larger waves up can no longer be considered, since the start point of the small second 5 wave advance shown as wave 'c' circle (or end of the double 3) has been broken by today's market action. It is still possible for the XAO to advance higher, but in a corrective capacity of higher complexity. This scenario will be a second count, and has been discussed in the past on some of the long term predication charts.
> 
> The long term primary count now starts to become a strong possibility with major new lows in the not so distant future.
> 
> Following on from here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=385699&postcount=325 In the short term new lows should occur soon either as a result of the current wave (4) correction unfolding now or as wave (5) down commences a strong push down. I have updated the chart below to provide a possible path based on the 3 wave decline. An X wave joins the two 3 wave a-b-c corrections
> 
> A possible double zig-zag correction is unfolding for wave 'a' circle in the declining B leg of a flat or triangle. If true, wave 'b' circle up would be 3 waves and retrace 61% or more of wave 'a' circle down. Following would be 5 waves down to complete wave 'c' circle. The B leg would end up being a flat of some type.




Hi OWG,

The idea of a double Zigzag does ring true for me. My only question mark is that whilst the general shape of the 3 wave move from the termination of your circle c looks like a Zigzag, the first wave (a) could be seen to be an impulse wave but if you correctly label wave (b) as a 3 wave move then wave (c) only looks to have 3 waves in it rather than the required 5 waves. At present your (b) wave only has one wave in it.

Cheers

Rudy


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## OzWaveGuy

OzWaveGuy said:


> ...In any case, the good news is: the case for an unfolding triangle or flat for the larger wave (4) correction becomes stronger - as a corrective leg down (for the larger wave B) is expected , and it could be a complex correction that will be hard to stay in front of.




The short term XAO structure is moving in 3 wave moves (in just about all directions) at the moment which indicates corrective wave formations both down and up.

There are still a few interpretations of the EW structure and I have provided my primary count below. The count indicates a possible short term upward move before wave 'b' circle finishes and heads lower. The rationale is that the upward move from Jan 15th is corrective and will count better with another 3 wave move to the upside (perhaps to 38.2 or 61.8% retracement). 

Consolidation patterns like the current wave (4) can be difficult to trade overnight due to the complexities with 3 wave short term moves. However, the recent double three (part of the A leg) was quite an outstanding signal and the thrust out of the double 3 was a pleasure to trade - even though it was short lived. 

If a triangle is unfolding for wave (4), then catching the thrust downwards into wave (5) at the right time will be key as it is expected the remaining contracting legs of the wave (4) triangle will become harder and harder to trade and will most likely suit intra-day strategies.

Cheers 

OWG


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## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> The short term XAO structure is moving in 3 wave moves (in just about all directions) at the moment which indicates corrective wave formations both down and up.
> 
> There are still a few interpretations of the EW structure and I have provided my primary count below. The count indicates a possible short term upward move before wave 'b' circle finishes and heads lower. The rationale is that the upward move from Jan 15th is corrective and will count better with another 3 wave move to the upside (perhaps to 38.2 or 61.8% retracement).
> 
> Consolidation patterns like the current wave (4) can be difficult to trade overnight due to the complexities with 3 wave short term moves. However, the recent double three (part of the A leg) was quite an outstanding signal and the thrust out of the double 3 was a pleasure to trade - even though it was short lived.
> 
> If a triangle is unfolding for wave (4), then catching the thrust downwards into wave (5) at the right time will be key as it is expected the remaining contracting legs of the wave (4) triangle will become harder and harder to trade and will most likely suit intra-day strategies.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> OWG




Hi OWG,

Here's my estimated target levels for the termination level of wave B.


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## OzWaveGuy

The All Ords continues to decline in a stepped structure which is leading me to believe wave B may be a triple zig-zag correction (11 waves). The next few days should validate this scenario.

If a triple zig-zag unfolds as indicated below, then I would be a little hesitant to call wave (4) a triangle and lean towards a flat (3-3-5) instead.

Under a flat scenario, wave B should complete similar to the chart below and wave C up should complete as a 5 wave impulse move. Wave C's in a flat can be as long as wave A (or longer), but they can also fail as well and only traverse a small amount. This certainly could happen due to the negative sentiment on XAO.

I'm in the US at the moment, and the mood is certainly negative and the massive turnout for Obama's inauguration indicates to me that many are 'hoping' for change in order to resurrect the US economy amongst other things. This 'hope' didn't translate to US stocks on the day, seeing a massive slide on the major indexes.  

I suspect wave (5) down on the S&P500, XAO, DJI should commence soon and it could be a significant affair.


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## OzWaveGuy

Discussed a couple of weeks back here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=382786&postcount=303 

I previously discussed a triangle for wave B of wave (4) on the XMJ and thus indicated a turn was soon approaching. The turn on the XMJ has occured and there is a case for the completion of wave (4).  Obviously a new high above the labeled wave (4) would indicate a different count in the short term. 

However, I believe the completion of wave (4) ties nicely into the overall market position on the XAO. Hence, I would expect the XMJ to decline and the first correction (wave 2 up) would tie in with the XAO wave C as discussed earlier.

Under this scenario wave (5) could head down towards some key Fibonacci levels acting as support around 4600-4700 (at this level there is also support dating back to 2002-04). This where wave (5) could equal wave (1) and be 61.8% of wave (3) at roughly the same time. We should have a clearer view once the first 2 waves are complete and after further analysis of the XAO and XMJ.

Cheers 

OWG


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## OzWaveGuy

From reading various posts in other threads on Fibonacci and how best to apply it, i am under the impression that there's probably an even split between people who think Fib provides value and those who think it does not.

I hope there are compelling reasons for using Fib for trading purpose under EW as the accuracy can be quite good if used correctly. Unfortunately for the non-EW folks, Fibonacci may not be quite as useful.

One reason is that under EW, there are clear wave relationships that can help  identifying turn points. However, the starting/ending points of waves may not be obvious to non-EWers (eg wave 4 triangles), hence fib relationships can be much harder to find (or non-existent).

This also applies to time as well. Fib relationships can also be found here also.

Anyone with specific thoughts on this topic?


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## Hudlass

Hi OzWaveGuy,

Firstly, thanks for the greats posts. I've subscribed to some of the more well known EW services over the years and your commentary is definitely up there.

I would vote for Fib relationships having value - especially with EW. I think it would be harder to apply those ratios without EW.

Cheers.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Hudlass said:


> Hi OzWaveGuy,
> 
> Firstly, thanks for the greats posts. I've subscribed to some of the more well known EW services over the years and your commentary is definitely up there.
> 
> I would vote for Fib relationships having value - especially with EW. I think it would be harder to apply those ratios without EW.
> 
> Cheers.




Thanks for the positive feedback Hudlass. 

I consider Fib techniques to be key for EW analysis 

Cheers 

OWG


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## OzWaveGuy

Following from here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=389134&postcount=337 , 11 waves down did not eventuate. Instead 9 waves down is complete - or in other words an impulse wave that implies more downside to follow after a short lived correction.

This short lived correction should take several days to unfold and may reach between 3460 to 3540 (a previous wave 4) with strong resistance at 3500. When complete, would be considered a small corrective 'b' wave, to be followed by another leg down. The completion of this leg down should finalize wave B of a wave (4) flat. This may take the XAO to new lows before wave C up commences.

An alternate count should be considered as well. There is a case for Wave (5) down having commenced already, with wave 1 of (5) completed, and the current upwards move is wave 2 of (5). I don't favor this count as this would mean wave (4) has unfolded as a zig-zag in a very short timeframe and is similar to wave (2) that started in March 08. Hence, not enough alternation between waves 2 and 4 for my liking 

Cheers 

OWG


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## phudlass

*X wave interpretation?*

Hi OWG,

Apologies for defacing your chart, but could the following be at play...

The 21st Nov to 7th Jan was the 1st a-b-c
We've concluded an X wave at the recent low 
Another a-b-c is about to take us up to around 7th Jan highs
This completes a 'complex' wave 4 (alternating with the 'simple' Mar-Sep 07 wave 2)
Then 5 waves lower for the final 5th?


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## OzWaveGuy

*Re: X wave interpretation?*



phudlass said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> Apologies for defacing your chart, but could the following be at play...
> 
> The 21st Nov to 7th Jan was the 1st a-b-c
> We've concluded an X wave at the recent low
> Another a-b-c is about to take us up to around 7th Jan highs
> This completes a 'complex' wave 4 (alternating with the 'simple' Mar-Sep 07 wave 2)
> Then 5 waves lower for the final 5th?




No probs, always welcome other views as there can be several interpretations.

Some rationale on why this scenario may not happen:
If the 'X' wave on your chart had completed with 11 down (eg A triple zig-zag correction) then a double zig-zag could have been a possibility for the larger wave (4) - at this point in time.

However, as the 'X' wave completed with only 9 waves down, which is an impulse move - then there needs to be at least another 5 waves down once this correction completes (to complete wave B)

It is possible that once this second wave of 5 down finishes, then the corrective 'X' wave becomes a reality should the market move up in three waves. However in that scenario I would lean towards an unfolding triangle for wave (4) which typically has greater odds in wave 4 positions

Hope this clarifies my thinking

Cheers

OWG


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## OzWaveGuy

One way to leverage various indicators in Elliott Wave is the use of MACD. Although you can use EW by itself without indicators (and some people do), there may be times when the use of an indicator or two may help in identifying wave termination points

Many folks use MACD for it's crossover or diverging/converging qualities in trade setups. As an EWer you can also use the MACD signal line to identify wave 3 termination points or even to determine whether a 3 wave correction has run it's course (hint: like today's XAO action)

The MACD signal line tends to move into under/oversold positions at or near the termination of wave 3. Wave 5 will usually not see a move past the wave 3 under/oversold position.

For those that are interested, I suggest trying it yourself, looking for oversold/undersold MACD positions at various time scales to see whether wave 3's terminate as described above.

More info on MACD is here http://stockcharts.org/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_average_conve


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## OzWaveGuy

The 3500 resistance level was almost hit today, and I was looking for a series of 5 waves down to determine if this small upwards rally was near completion. It appears a small zig-zag correction (5-3-5) occurred from the high this morning, indicating that there needs to be a push higher to complete this upwards correction.

Wave b of this small zig-zag appears to be a triangle (11:50 - 14:40 on the 5min XAO chart), indicating more upside to go or a more complex correction needs to unfold.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

As mentioned today on the XAO analysis thread - the current count would look a whole lot better with another push up.

The final push upwards to complete wave 'b' circle is estimated to be 61.8% of wave (a) up - around 3533 (which is also a 50% retracement of wave 'a' circle down). 

The 28.95 point decline on the US S&P500 in last night's session did little to influence the XAO after the first 15 mins trade today - seeing the XAO finishing 16 points up at the close. This can certainly undermine confidence if the belief is the Australian Market simply (or blindly) follows the US markets.

There are other interpretations that are also valid, but the impulse move down to form wave 'a' circle indicates another push lower is needed to (at a minimum) complete a zig-zag (5-3-5) correction for the larger wave B. Hence, wave 'b' circle up will need to end now or very soon - ideally at one of the previous wave 4 positions (as shown on the chart below). 

Cheers

OWG


----------



## Page

Market updates for the day
To end the week in Asia, traders scurry to the security of the so-called ''safe haven'' the currencies of US and Japan, amidst inferior equities spread from the US to Asian markets. With prosperity of depressing data to go around, counting horrid Japanese Industrial Production and employment data in Asia and deprived durable goods, and employment in the US, traders looked at the worldwide recession as worsen. Currency of US and Japan dropped like a stone through the session, falling from original highs of 90.14 to lows of 89.19 as the hours passed. The EUR/USD made similar moves, opening near 1.2946 highs and gradually grinding to lows of 1.2881 before steadying out ay 1.2900 by London's open. Overall, both the Dollar and Yen victimized the Euro today while ECB members sustained to talk in circles about the destiny of Europe's single currency. EUR/JPY opened close to its highs of 116.65 and chop down to just a pip under 115.00 over the day. Later we have the Euro Zone CPI and employment data to watch.

Other currency pairs of note, GBP/USD declined with the stronger Dollar, affecting from near 1.4300 to just less than 1.4200 before bouncing 50 to end the session. The AUD and NZD both originally dropped, but both managed to make up about half of their losses by the end of the sessions. Australian Dollar and US Dollar were at 0.6480 up from a 0.6423 low, New Zeeland and US Dollar were near 0.5125, up from session lows of 0.5076. 

*Upcoming Economic Data Releases (London Session):*

1/30/2009 	7:45 	FR 	Producer Prices (MoM) 	DEC 	-1.90% 	-1.10% 
1/30/2009 	7:45 	FR 	Producer Prices (YoY) 	DEC 	1.60% 	0.30% 
1/30/2009 	9:30 	UK 	Net Consumer Credit 	DEC 	0.8B 	0.7B 
1/30/2009 	9:30 	UK 	Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings 	DEC 	0.7B 	0.6B 
1/30/2009 	9:30 	UK 	Mortgage Approvals 	DEC 	27K 	26K 
1/30/2009 	10:00 	EC 	Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) 	JAN 	1.60% 	1.40% 
1/30/2009 	10:00 	EC 	Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate 	DEC 	7.80% 	7.90%


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Page said:


> Market updates for the day
> To end the week in Asia, traders scurry to the security.......




And the relevance of this information to Elliot Wave Analysis is?


----------



## phudlass

OzWaveGuy said:


> The final push upwards to complete wave 'b' circle is estimated to be 61.8% of wave (a) up - around 3533 (which is also a 50% retracement of wave 'a' circle down).




Hi OWG,

Could we push a bit higher toward wave equality with wave (a) up and the 61.8% retracement of wave 'a' circle down?

Cheers,

Paulh.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

phudlass said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> Could we push a bit higher toward wave equality with wave (a) up and the 61.8% retracement of wave 'a' circle down?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Paulh.




Yep - there's no reason why it can't, and waves will try for equality. 61.8% is simply a 'safe' target where a reversal can occur. 50/50 odds on hitting 100% or 61.8%


----------



## phudlass

OzWaveGuy said:


> Yep - there's no reason why it can't, and waves will try for equality. 61.8% is simply a 'safe' target where a reversal can occur. 50/50 odds on hitting 100% or 61.8%




What's your view with today's action. A bit more to go?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

It appears that the small wave (b) from the chart here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392272&postcount=347 , is still unfolding and looks to be a triangle. If true, then a push up should be forthcoming to 3533 or slightly higher.

Once the downtrend has resumed, we will need to assess the possibility that wave (4) has already ended and wave (5) down is currently underway OR if wave (4) is still unfolding (likely).

Also, I believe it will soon be a good time to assess when possible events (planned or unplanned) may unfold as social mood continues to turn negative. Wave (5) down could be a catalyst for such an event that appears to push the indexes lower before the market reverses (eg like on Sept 11 2001)


----------



## OzWaveGuy

So who wants to call this one?

Has the XAO topped? Possibly, the leg up today is 38.2% of the (a) leg - so there's a fib relationship, although the time to complete this last leg up was a little quick compared to the (a) leg. 

There is evidence of a small series of 5 wave structures down that has unfolded. A break below the end of the wave (b) triangle of 3438 will confirm the resumption of the downtrend (or a more complex correction is unfolding for the (b) wave).


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> It appears that the small wave (b) from the chart here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392272&postcount=347 , is still unfolding and looks to be a triangle. If true, then a push up should be forthcoming to 3533 or slightly higher.
> 
> Once the downtrend has resumed, we will need to assess the possibility that wave (4) has already ended and wave (5) down is currently underway OR if wave (4) is still unfolding (likely).
> 
> Also, I believe it will soon be a good time to assess when possible events (planned or unplanned) may unfold as social mood continues to turn negative. Wave (5) down could be a catalyst for such an event that appears to push the indexes lower before the market reverses (eg like on Sept 11 2001)





Hi OWG,

When the wave from the 7th January to the 23rd January  (your wave circle a) turned out to be an impulse wave I believe that the possibility that the 7th January could have been the completion of wave (4) turned into a real option.

I still have a leaning towards your current wave count which suggests that we are still constructing wave (4) and that we are in the process of creating the later stages of wave B of wave (4).

Your main arguments in  a previous post against the wave (5) proposition was on the grounds of 'time to complete' and alternation (ie, wave (2) and wave (4) should be different) but we need to keep in mind that alternation is a guideline and not a rule. Statistics that I have seen on the occurence of alternation puts it at around 61.8% of the time so it is not an argument that can be used to definitely rule out a particular wave count.  As I understand it wave 4's usually complete in a range of 100% ~ 268.1% of the time take by wave 2's so your your 'time to complete' argument is reasonable.  Mind you the time to complete wasn't too far short of 100%.

My main reason for ruling out the wave (5) proposition is that it would require a complete layer of wave level to be 'disappeared' in order to come to the conclusion that the wave (5) proposition was correct.

What I mean by the above statement is that your current wave count has wave A terminating on the 7th January.  Wave A was made up of 3 lower order waves; from memory you used waves (a), (b) and (c).  Wave (a) terminated on the 28th November 2008.  Now for your current wave A to become wave (4) it would mean that your wave (a) would have to be wave A, and your current wave A termination would have to be the new wave C termination point.   Hence the level of waves (a), (b) and (c) have disappeared into the ethers.

I'm not sure if I'm explaining myself clearly enough but it's the best I can do.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Your main arguments in  a previous post against the wave (5) proposition was on the grounds of 'time to complete' and alternation (ie, wave (2) and wave (4) should be different) but we need to keep in mind that alternation is a guideline and not a rule




Correct. But the odds are high that a triangle will unfold for 4th waves, so one needs to lean in that direction until proven incorrect. In any event, the move should be down and very tradeable, but be aware that a leg up to form wave C of a triangle or flat may appear.

Not sure I follow the rest of the post - sorry

Cheers

OWG


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Correct. But the odds are high that a triangle will unfold for 4th waves, so one needs to lean in that direction until proven incorrect. In any event, the move should be down and very tradeable, but be aware that a leg up to form wave C of a triangle or flat may appear.
> 
> Not sure I follow the rest of the post - sorry
> 
> Cheers
> 
> OWG




Hi OWG,

I'll try and explain that last bit of my post again 

I believe that one of the biggest problems facing EW analysts is what I call *level confusion*. For example assuming that we have labeled a completed cycle as waves (1), (2), (3), (4), (5), (A), (B) and (C).  That would mean that the waves one degree/level down would be labeled waves 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B and C.

If some one labeled a completed cycle as waves (1), (2), (3), (4), (5), A, B and C you would immediately say that the corrective waves A, B and C were labeled at the wrong level.

Now, I take you back to an earlier post that you kindly provided us in which you had the following chart.




Please ignore the fact that at the time not enough of the pattern from the 7th January had revealed itself so that it could be identified as an impulse wave.  The thing I want to concentrate on is purely *the labeling notation of the waves.*

As you can see the sub waves of A were circle 'a', circle 'b' and circle 'c'.  I suggest that you used that labeling to indicate that you were keeping the wave count *at the same level as the previous market action*.

To propose that the termination point for wave A to suddenly be the termination point for wave (4), it would require sub wave circle 'a' to become wave A, sub wave circle 'b' to become wave B and wave circle 'c' to become wave C thus completing wave (4).

This is what I mean when I say that this propostion would require a complete level of waves to disappear into the ethers, namely wave circle 'a', circle 'b' and circle 'c' (it would also obviously affect the labeling of all of the lower level waves as well).

The only other explanation would be that when you commenced labeling your chart of the market action subsequent to the 21st November 2008 that you had incorrectly selected the labeling for one level down.  I certainly don't say this as a criticism because I have done exactly the same thing.  Our labeling led us to the conclusion that we are currently still creating corrective wave (4) and not in a wave (5) down leg.

I hope that I have explained myself a little clearer this time.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> To propose that the termination point for wave A to suddenly be the termination point for wave (4), it would require sub wave circle 'a' to become wave A, sub wave circle 'b' to become wave B and wave circle 'c' to become wave C thus completing wave (4).
> 
> This is what I mean when I say that this propostion would require a complete level of waves to disappear into the ethers, namely wave circle 'a', circle 'b' and circle 'c' (it would also obviously affect the labeling of all of the lower level waves as well).




Yes, basically the analyst could remove a label (representing a wave degree) depending or not if the wave subdivides. So if wave (4) has already finished, then the subdivisions within it will (most likely) no longer be represented by wave a, b and c circle, but instead would be A, B, C. It isn't an exact science and analysis of prior wave action will help working out the right degree.

For wave 2 and 4's it's no big deal as corrections are always hard to stay in front of anyway and re-labeling is common. The key is to pick sub-divisions within waves 1,3 and 5 as these are the impulsive waves that can stretch on for sometime. Back in Oct/Nov last year when charting the projected roadmap for the XAO, I simply assumed that wave (3) down would be subdividing and also be the extended wave as this is common for wave 3's. It turns out that this assumption was correct.

I wouldn't call it label confusion, many EW analysts simply don't take the time to work out a suitable labeling system. If your not posting charts for others to see then a detailed labeling system may not provide a whole lot of value anyways.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

OzWaveGuy said:


> So who wants to call this one?
> 
> Has the XAO topped? Possibly, the leg up today is 38.2% of the (a) leg - so there's a fib relationship, although the time to complete this last leg up was a little quick compared to the (a) leg.
> 
> There is evidence of a small series of 5 wave structures down that has unfolded. A break below the end of the wave (b) triangle of 3438 will confirm the resumption of the downtrend (or a more complex correction is unfolding for the (b) wave).




A break below 3438 has occurred. I seriously doubt that the XAO will form a new short term high, although there is room for a bounce.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> A break below 3438 has occurred. I seriously doubt that the XAO will form a new short term high, although there is room for a bounce.




Hi OWG,

I agree with your doubt that we will get a short term high in our market however I can't think of a pattern to explain sensibly the market action from the 23rd January to the current date.  I had thought that the rally from that date (wave (a)) was an impulse but if it was a 3 wave move then one pattern that perhaps may fit is the following.  This proposes what Prechter calls an 'expanding reverse symmetrical' corrective triangle for wave (b).

Apologies for using the XJO rather than the XAO but that's the index that I tend to follow.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> I can't think of a pattern to explain sensibly the market action from the 23rd January to the current date.




Rudy, don't get too hung up on it. it didn't look like a 5 wave move up, so a complex correction appears valid, and there's a triangle which is  a key signal. I'll post something later on how I believe it should be labeled.

Try to keep projected roadmaps as simple as possible - an expanded triangle for wave b - well maybe, but the odds simply don't favor it. How many expanded triangles have you seen lately?

Use the KISS principle + 5 wave identification


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Rudy, don't get too hung up on it. it didn't look like a 5 wave move up, so a complex correction appears valid, and there's a triangle which is  a key signal. I'll post something later on how I believe it should be labeled.
> 
> Try to keep projected roadmaps as simple as possible - an expanded triangle for wave b - well maybe, but the odds simply don't favor it. How many expanded triangles have you seen lately?
> 
> Use the KISS principle + 5 wave identification




Hi OWG,

Good advice.  It did seem to be quite a long shot but I couldn't think of a sensible alternate wave count.  No I haven't seen very many expanded triangles in my experience which is why I thought it was a longs shot.


----------



## Sean K

Hey guys, great EW discussion.

I'm wondering if you guys are trading this, or just providing commentary of potential, and non potential, movements in the charts?

From what you've provided so far, I haven't seen any entry or exit triggers, or any trades at all. 

Just curious as to how you're applying this to make money.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

kennas said:


> Hey guys, great EW discussion.
> 
> I'm wondering if you guys are trading this, or just providing commentary of potential, and non potential, movements in the charts?
> 
> From what you've provided so far, I haven't seen any entry or exit triggers, or any trades at all.
> 
> Just curious as to how you're applying this to make money.




I take positions mainly using options on moves that have a chance of lasting for awhile or CFDs. My preference is bluechip stocks most recently BHP. XJO. Don't day trade that much atm. I usually only post the XAO commentary and not individual stocks (unless someone asks about a specific stock)


----------



## OzWaveGuy

There was also some discussion on trading strategies in late December on this thread.


----------



## Sean K

Just wondering how all this benifits other ASF members.

It's all great to have a 12345ABCXABXXETC, but:

How does EW turn into profits?

Haven't actually seen it anywhere yet.

As an alternate, other people have, and are, posting live trades based on FA and other TA for scrutiny, but I have yet to see a live EW entry and exit. ANY. Just commentary about what may, or may not. Hardly useful.

Maybe the EW Analysis Thread can provide some real time examples of entry and exits based on the commentary.

Would be a very useful exercise.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Rudy, don't get too hung up on it. it didn't look like a 5 wave move up, so a complex correction appears valid, and there's a triangle which is  a key signal. I'll post something later on how I believe it should be labeled.
> 
> Try to keep projected roadmaps as simple as possible - an expanded triangle for wave b - well maybe, but the odds simply don't favor it. How many expanded triangles have you seen lately?
> 
> Use the KISS principle + 5 wave identification




Hi OWG,

Okay, hows this for an alternate KISS type pattern for the XJO then?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

kennas said:


> Just wondering how all this benifits other ASF members.




Well then I doubt they will be interested in viewing this thread except those who have a desire to learn EW analysis or to understand where the XAO is heading.



kennas said:


> Just commentary about what may, or may not. Hardly useful.




Obviously Opinions vary.


----------



## dutchie

G'day Kennas

I think this thread is very useful to me!

I like seeing OWGs' (et al) analysis of the XAO using EW methods and comparing it to my own ideas and analysis.

Surely every stock or analysis thread here does not need to show how to make a profit, entries,exits, stops etc.

To each his own. So if your not getting what you want out of this thread then ignore it.  

Keep up the good work OWG!

Cheers

Dutchie


----------



## Rudy

kennas said:


> Just wondering how all this benifits other ASF members.
> 
> It's all great to have a 12345ABCXABXXETC, but:
> 
> How does EW turn into profits?
> 
> Haven't actually seen it anywhere yet.
> 
> As an alternate, other people have, and are, posting live trades based on FA and other TA for scrutiny, but I have yet to see a live EW entry and exit. ANY. Just commentary about what may, or may not. Hardly useful.
> 
> Maybe the EW Analysis Thread can provide some real time examples of entry and exits based on the commentary.
> 
> Would be a very useful exercise.





Hi Kennas,

The discussion probably appears to be a bit academic to you but I like to get a picture of what our main index is doing so that I can determine when it is relatively safe to enter the market.  As I tend to trade on the long side I like to know when the index is likely to be moving in the upward direction and how long it is likely to do so.  

For example when we have impulse wave rallies or wave C rallies in a longer term time frame they present relatively safe trading conditions whereas periods when the market is going through short term corrective patterns it is not a good time for me to trade.

Other times for example when we are in the latter stages of a wave 3 impulse wave I might decide to pull out of the market as a market reversal during a corrective wave 4 may be followed by a truncated wave 5.  So once again it is a matter of understanding where we are in the overall market wave pattern so that we can determine a safe trading environment.

I have found that in practice Elliott Wave doesn't work all that well with a lot of stocks so I use other TA methods for exact entries and exits .

Elliott Wave isn't the holy grail but when used in conjunction with other TA and FA methodologies it does provide as complete a picture of what ever we're trading as possible.  Whenever you have a number of different methodologies coming up with the same outcome it increases the probability of a successful trade.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> Okay, hows this for an alternate KISS type pattern for the XJO then?
> 
> View attachment 27709




A question - any reason why you apply analysis on the XJO (not that there's anything wrong with that)?

EW is usually more accurate on indexes, so the bigger the better. I personally find that the XAO is easier to analyze v's the XJO (and they follow very similar paths anyways).


----------



## jackson8

dutchie said:


> G'day Kennas
> 
> I think this thread is very useful to me!
> 
> I like seeing OWGs' (et al) analysis of the XAO using EW methods and comparing it to my own ideas and analysis.
> 
> Surely every stock or analysis thread here does not need to show how to make a profit, entries,exits, stops etc.
> 
> To each his own. So if your not getting what you want out of this thread then ignore it.
> 
> Keep up the good work OWG!
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Dutchie




totally agree with you there dutchie
have found this thread very usefull
thanks be to ozwaveguy and rudy
havent managed to make any successful trades using the good sorts thread yet


----------



## OzWaveGuy

The wave 'b' circle correction appears to have completed with a break below 3438. The 3438 target was the end of the wave (b) triangle (see detail), and as many of you already know, triangles (esp in corrections) represent a change in trend or correction will soon be at hand.

In the wave (4) flat scenario (shown), the wave 'c' circle leg could be at least 61.8% of wave 'a' circle which places wave 'c' circle termination at 3229 (or lower) - and 27 points above the low.

In a wave (4) triangle scenario wave 'c' circle could go lower.

From here, should wave 'b' circle not be completed and a bigger push up occurs, then one would consider a stop at 3438. 

Cheers 

OWG


----------



## salsem

my favorite counting on SP500


----------



## Sean K

jackson8 said:


> totally agree with you there dutchie
> have found this thread very usefull
> thanks be to ozwaveguy and rudy
> havent managed to make any successful trades using the good sorts thread yet



Yes, I am enjoying the thread as well, just wondering how to trade it except for after the fact. Rudy has made some good points there, cheers. 

The good sorts thread is doing fine for me, don't understand why you're not doing well there.


----------



## Lachlan6

Hi Kennas.

The point you make is one that I had to also contend with for a while. However, EW is as far as I am concerned the single best way to determine which way the market or an individual stock may go.

However, I use it predominately to decide if I should be long or short in any given market. For example, I have been loading up on short positions in the US over the last week or so based purely on the EW interpretation. The overwhelming evidence suggests the next move of significance will be to the downside and today's action looks to have confirmed this. In this way I find it a priceless tool to make money trading the markets. Of course EW can at times be open to a number of interpretations but at those times I find it is best to hedge your positions between long and shorts and then manage each trade on an individual basis. 

Hope this helps,

Lachlan.


----------



## biggles

I'm finding this thread terrific.  Very educational and a great help in getting my brain around the counts. It takes a big effort. Most of the books just have diagrams for Bull markets too. Thanks OWG , Rudy and others.
 I've been getting chopped around a lot with my trades lately but after reading this I will just wait this period out, wave 4

In his book "Trading Systems And Methods" (1998), trading system specialist Perry Kaufman presents four of Ruggiero's suggestions for trading Elliott by machine: 
1) Enter wave 3 in the direction of the trend. 
2) Stay out of market during wave 4. 
3) Enter wave 5. 
4) Take countertrend ABC at top of wave 5.


Where is the good sorts thread ?


----------



## jackson8

biggles said:


> I'm finding this thread terrific.  Very educational and a great help in getting my brain around the counts. It takes a big effort. Most of the books just have diagrams for Bull markets too. Thanks OWG , Rudy and others.
> 
> Where is the good sorts thread ?




here is the link 
a good distraction for bleak times
actually must see if i can hunt down someone to add to the thread myself


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14025&page=6&highlight=good+sorts


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> A question - any reason why you apply analysis on the XJO (not that there's anything wrong with that)?
> 
> EW is usually more accurate on indexes, so the bigger the better. I personally find that the XAO is easier to analyze v's the XJO (and they follow very similar paths anyways).




Hi OWG,

Actually I used to concentrate on the XAO but became involved on another forum where the flavour was the XJO.  When in Rome do as the Romans do.

I agree with you that the bigger the better because of the mass psychology aspect of EW analysis and the XAO has a lot more history than the XJO as well.  

In general though as you have already mentioned, both indices tend to follow each other as the XJO is a huge component of the XAO.

Cheers


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> The wave 'b' circle correction appears to have completed with a break below 3438. The 3438 target was the end of the wave (b) triangle (see detail), and as many of you already know, triangles (esp in corrections) represent a change in trend or correction will soon be at hand.
> 
> In the wave (4) flat scenario (shown), the wave 'c' circle leg could be at least 61.8% of wave 'a' circle which places wave 'c' circle termination at 3229 (or lower) - and 27 points above the low.
> 
> In a wave (4) triangle scenario wave 'c' circle could go lower.
> 
> From here, should wave 'b' circle not be completed and a bigger push up occurs, then one would consider a stop at 3438.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> 
> OWG





Hi OWG,

I like your wave count on the XAO.  It's slightly different to my count on the XJO but I think that you are more accurate.......with your guidance I'll get this stuff perfect eventually .  Thanks for that.

Cheers


----------



## Rudy

kennas said:


> Yes, I am enjoying the thread as well, just wondering how to trade it except for after the fact.





Hi Kennas,

The EW process looks at the past market action in an attempt to determine which pattern is playing out and where we are in that particular pattern.  No system is perfect however what we attempt to do in the next step of the process is to assume a few high probability scenarios.   As the market action continues to unfold, these possible scenarios fairly quickly get eliminated until you are left with one pattern.

Your comment _"just wondering how to trade it except for after the fact."_ maybe misses what we are attempting to do.  It may appear at times that in discussing possible scenarios we are saying if/but/etc but in the majority of occasions the high probability scenarios tend to predict that the market will go in one particular direction but the possible pattern to achieve that particular directional move is not clear at the time.  Therefore from a traders/investors perspective it doesn't matter which specific pattern will unfold as long as the higher probability scenarios point in the right direction and that these scenarios indicate that the length of time that the next move will last is sufficient to execute a safe trade.

In those cases where the higher probability scenarios point to opposing market action then we know that it is not a time to attempt to execute a trade because the outcome is uncertain and hence too risky.

For the above reasons I believe that EW is a powerful tool in the toobox of the trader/investor.

There are times when the pattern is clear and other times such as during the playing out of a complex corrective wave it becomes impossible to predict the outcome of a pattern because the minute you attempt to do it, it morphs into something different.  These are times when you just have to sit it out and wait for the next clear pattern to present itself.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> I usually only post the XAO commentary and not individual stocks (unless someone asks about a specific stock)




Hi OWG,

I would appreciate you casting your eye over this possible wave count for BHP for me.


----------



## sails

I think BHP needs to get past $31.60 or possibly a "W" pattern is forming on the hourly chart as seen in Rudy's post. I have posted a daily chart below of STO which formed a "W" towards the end of last year and you can see the result.  How would you EW experts label this?

Also, there is a possible head and shoulders forming on the daily chart for BHP.  That said, I have also found that failure of a pattern can often result in a pretty strong move in the opposite direction, so it always pays to be prepared.

I have also enjoyed this thread and being able to see different EW counts being applied in real time.  Thanks guys.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

kennas said:


> Yes, I am enjoying the thread as well, just wondering how to trade it except for after the fact.





EW is not for everyone.

I'm interested in your statement above that EW is obvious after the fact - and yes it is - along with everything else.

However, it is used to predict the market - in some cases quite accurately. For example the recent discussion on the 'text book' double 3 correction on the XAO and the impending 5 wave break to the upside to complete a zig-zag correction (with discussion on the upside targets) didn't have you wondering about looking for possible entry points on your preferred stocks prior to the completion of the double 3?


----------



## Boggo

Another view of BHP daily chart.

(click to expand)


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> I would appreciate you casting your eye over this possible wave count for BHP for me.
> 
> 
> View attachment 27722





The (a)  leg up is not an impulse move. Wave iii is the shortest wave - illegal under EW.

Take a look at the XMJ - always easier, then BHP.

Will swing around later tonight on this.

Cheers

OWG


----------



## nunthewiser

for what its worth


Personally feel BHP due for a fall to new overall lows before it reaches the targets indicated on rudys chart.......only my 2 cents 

prolly wrong


----------



## Sean K

OzWaveGuy said:


> For example the recent discussion on the 'text book' double 3 correction on the XAO and the impending 5 wave break to the upside to complete a zig-zag correction (with discussion on the upside targets) didn't have you wondering about looking for possible entry points on your preferred stocks prior to the completion of the double 3?



I will have to look back at the discussion to see which way you, or others were calling the latest short term move. How that has related to my preferred stocks probably isn't relevant. Mostly red actually. 

In regard to this, it's interesting that Rudy has posted a BHP EW chart prediction which to me looks like it's going UP, but isn't he and you both calling the next major XAO leg DOWN?

No, it's not for everybody.   

But interesting.

Looking forward to your time/fib projections linked to the EW...

Maybe we could see an entry and exit trigger somewhere using EW?

Cheers.


----------



## amory

for true believers only:

assuming that early last August 08 ... XAO 4880 ... marked the low point of a 5-wave down pattern.  this then was followed by about 4 weeks of upswing (an A-B-C pattern if you like).

then followed another horrible 5-wave down to about mid-November.  this was followed by another upswing like the one above, only slightly longer lasting, to about 3730.

since then, its been down again.  the question now arises:

does the new low of 3300 a week ago signal the end of Wave-1 of a new 5-wave down pattern?  where we would now be somewhere in the (usually fairly short-lived) up-wave 2, preceding lengthy down-wave 3.

just guesswork at this stage, but it would take an up-break beyond at least XAO 3500 to challenge the theory.  other than that, I fully agree with Rudy's projection (post #367)


----------



## Rudy

kennas said:


> I will have to look back at the discussion to see which way you, or others were calling the latest short term move. How that has related to my preferred stocks probably isn't relevant. Mostly red actually.
> 
> In regard to this, it's interesting that Rudy has posted a BHP EW chart prediction which to me looks like it's going UP, but isn't he and you both calling the next major XAO leg DOWN?
> 
> No, it's not for everybody.
> 
> But interesting.
> 
> Looking forward to your time/fib projections linked to the EW...
> 
> Maybe we could see an entry and exit trigger somewhere using EW?
> 
> Cheers.





Hi Kennas,

I regretted posting that chart of BHP and should have cancelled it immediately as I had grave doubts about its validity.  As OWG has correctly pointed out my earlier wave was totally illegal and hence voided the wave count.

Like you I think that the chances of BHP and the XJO travelling in opposite directions for any length of time is pretty remote.

I can only apologise for not cancelling that post.  It is not EW that is wrong in that case it is clearly the practitioner.

Cheers


----------



## OzWaveGuy

I was sorta afraid that this EW thread was almost a conversation between myself and Rudy for awhile (not that there is anything wrong with Rudy - just to be clear  ). Obviously there's a heap of folks reading on in the background and many of you have indicated the value of this thread - so thanks for that feedback.

Part of my strategy on this thread is to enable you with EW as I do it anyway for my personal benefit - so why not share it? Hence, I have posted plenty of real examples and additional material that you may want to consider as well (and I know others have as well - so thanks).

For those new to EW and are keen to learn or want to evaluate it as a tool to combine with your own trading strategy - it probably makes sense to read the threads from Dec last year (if you have spare time) as many different patterns have formed since then and there's a bunch of discussion on each one. In addition, I'll post specific articles for consideration based on market action at the time or specific questions that members have asked. If you have a question and don't want to post then PM is ok.

I know what it feels like learning EW , and to be brutally honest, it wasn't easy and rather painful at times. I subscribed to some of the EW analysts in the market, but it didn't help me that much and I really wanted to get off the plateau i was on. Glenn Neely's Mastering Elliott Wave helped a lot and opened my eyes to additional patterns that can occur - it's hard going though.

Cheers OWG


----------



## Boggo

OzWaveGuy said:


> Obviously *there's a heap of folks reading on in the background* and many of you have indicated the value of this thread - so thanks for that feedback.
> Cheers OWG




Certainly are OWG, keep posting.

Boggo


----------



## Rudy

amory said:


> for true believers only:
> 
> assuming that early last August 08 ... XAO 4880 ... marked the low point of a 5-wave down pattern.  this then was followed by about 4 weeks of upswing (an A-B-C pattern if you like).
> 
> then followed another horrible 5-wave down to about mid-November.  this was followed by another upswing like the one above, only slightly longer lasting, to about 3730.
> 
> since then, its been down again.  the question now arises:
> 
> does the new low of 3300 a week ago signal the end of Wave-1 of a new 5-wave down pattern?  where we would now be somewhere in the (usually fairly short-lived) up-wave 2, preceding lengthy down-wave 3.
> 
> just guesswork at this stage, but it would take an up-break beyond at least XAO 3500 to challenge the theory.  other than that, I fully agree with Rudy's projection (post #367)





Hi Amory,

Since that post OWG posted a chart that looked pretty much like the one in my earlier 367 post but more accurate in it's labeling.

Regarding your question.  Since the market high of the 1st November 2007 we had 3 large cycle waves down which I've labeled waves (1), (2) and (3).  Wave (3) completed on the 21st November 2008.

Both OWG and I believe that we are currently in the process of creating corrective wave (4) through the process of 3 waves labeled A, B and C.  *Wave A travellled up *from the 21st November 2008 and completed on the 7th January 2009.  *We are currently in wave B which is heading south as anticipated.*   Once wave B is complete we will get a rally in wave C.  

At the completion of wave C we will also be completing the higher level wave (4).  From that point on we will have a downward moving wave (5) which if it behaves normally will take out any previous market lows.

I am patiently waiting for the rally under wave C to commence as it will be my last real opportunity to invest safely for a reasonable period of time (multiple weeks).  The next real rally of any worth will be the rally that will take place after the completion of wave (5).  This later rally should last several months.


----------



## krk004

Enjoy the contributions by all on this forum!

Very much an EW novice, myself.

Anyone want to give their EW thoughts on Gold, Silver or Platinum?

Thanks in advance,


----------



## amory

Thanks for reply, Rudy.  like most EW analysts, you are plotting the major waves over a very extended time frame.  result, where you are seeing a completed wave-3, my one is a wave-5, with subsequent upward correction same as yours.  anyway, although using different paths, we arrive at similar final projections ... ultimately new lows.  only I would expect such new lows to occur within the next couple of months, you ... much later?

P.S. to Krk004:  I don't think gold lends itself to EW analysis.  one is more inclined to study its long & short term up & down channels.  for instance, currently at the peak of a rising channel, upbreak would be a good signal, while a return downwards could be heading back to the lower trendline.  FWIW


----------



## Rudy

amory said:


> Thanks for reply, Rudy.  like most EW analysts, you are plotting the major waves over a very extended time frame.  result, where you are seeing a completed wave-3, my one is a wave-5, with subsequent upward correction same as yours.  anyway, although using different paths, we arrive at similar final projections ... ultimately new lows.  *only I would expect such new lows to occur within the next couple of months, you ... much later?*




Hi Amory,

I haven't delved into the timing aspects of EW except on a very rudimentary level so here is a very simplistic view of my timing.

My suggested wave (4) is composed of waves A, B and C.  Wave A took roughly 7 weeks to complete (21 Nov 08 to 7 Jan 09).  Wave B has been underway since the 8 Jan 09 and I assume will complete in say 4 ~ 5 weeks.  Wave C of a Flat would normally complete in a period that is somewhere between 61.8% and 161.8% of the shortest wave of waves A and B so I'll take a stab at 4 ~ 5 weeks.  So that is the rough timing for the completion of wave (4).

Now as for how long it would take wave (5) to complete.  I would tend to go to wave equality in time with wave (1) and wave (1) took around 20 weeks to complete.

So that gives you my best guess on the timing.

Oh by the way, wave B of wave (4) can be anywhere between 68.1% (some round this off to 70%) and 138.2% of the length of wave A so it is still conceivable that we may see new lows during the wave B phase of proceedings.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Some thoughts on recent XAO and XMJ action (no charts sorry). The XAO doesn't appear to be moving downwards in impulse moves (so wave 'b' circle could still be underway). XMJ is in a large corrective move and I suspect will be for some time.

More later

Cheers - OWG


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> The (a)  leg up is not an impulse move. Wave iii is the shortest wave - illegal under EW.
> 
> Take a look at the XMJ - always easier, then BHP.
> 
> Will swing around later tonight on this.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> OWG




Hi OWG,

I had a look at the XMJ and didn't find it any easier than BHP.  It is interesting by the way that whilst I got the (a) wave of BHP incorrectly labeled, it performed pretty much as I drew it on my chart.

Lucky I guess 


The way I see the latest run up on BHP is that it has almost (if not already today) completed a 5 wave pattern up and will now drop to form wave circle c.  This should also drag down the XAO/XJO in the coming days.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Some thoughts on recent XAO and XMJ action (no charts sorry). The XAO doesn't appear to be moving downwards in impulse moves (so wave 'b' circle could still be underway). XMJ is in a large corrective move and I suspect will be for some time.
> 
> More later
> 
> Cheers - OWG





Hi OWG,

I don't know....... the XAO looks pretty impulsive to me


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> I don't know....... the XAO looks pretty impulsive to me
> 
> View attachment 27765




Wave iv overlaps into the price range of wave ii.

Somethings up. The evidence is suggesting a different count is unfolding -  i suspect another push up is required to finish a more complex b wave correction. Will sit out for a bit until this wave clarifies.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Wave iv overlaps into the price range of wave ii.
> 
> Somethings up. The evidence is suggesting a different count is unfolding -  i suspect another push up is required to finish a more complex b wave correction. Will sit out for a bit until this wave clarifies.





Hi OWG,

Granted.  I was almost tempted to join the EW group who discount intraday spikes (the sound that you may be able to hear in the background is that of a severe wrist slap) but with the global markets reacting so strongly overnight it is obvious that we need to wait a bit longer for things to reveal themselves.  

You never know we may even end up with my low probability  expanding triangle scenario.  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=394102&postcount=360


----------



## OzWaveGuy

*Resource Sector
*
During the week there was some discussion about the difficulty in labelling BHP and the resources sector (XMJ). 

I had previously posted my thoughts on the XMJ here ---> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=389301&postcount=338

However, I no longer believe that the XMJ is currently unfolding in a wave (4) (as proposed in the above post)

*CHART 1*
Before I get into wave counts, the first chart below covers the XMJ bounce starting on the 21st Nov. Because it initially looks difficult to label - I try to find all the 5 wave moves first and then the 3 wave moves. When I get stuck with 'unexplainable' counts - I look for triangles and then see if there is a 5 wave move on the other side of the triangle (to complete a zig-zag).

So hopefully you'll have something similar to the chart below. I try to compartmentalize the obvious legs and not get too distracted by the rest.

*CHART 2*
Once this has been done, I just add the labels that represent higher and lower degrees as in the 2nd Chart (in this case large or small text). The next step is to try and understand what each wave is trying to say v's just copying down the 5 and 3 wave moves.

For example, the large B wave triangle in the larger A leg was a very good indicator that indicated an impulse move out of the triangle needed to occur. As a side note, the XMJ triangle tied very closely to the XAO double 3 that covered almost the same length of time and was discussed at length on this thread.

The next price of good info was after the large A leg - An impulse move downwards is not evident (which was suggested in the post above), but instead a double zig-zag with an intervening 'X' wave unfolded - a 3 wave move not 5 and therefore a key signal that the market is still correcting. One can now assume (with a reasonable level of safety) that this 3 wave move could be part of a larger flat correction (3-3-5). So the next short term move needs to be up in a 3 wave move before heading down in a 5 wave move to form wave B. These charts were taken on Thursday, so further upside has already occurred - and maybe a little more needs to occur. There are other interpretations - but the analysis seems logical to me and ties into where the XAO is heading.

*SUMMARY*
Once you can determine the most likely course of the market - you use your trading strategy for entry and exit points depending on the time scale to be traded. However, as the XMJ is correcting, it will be more difficult to trade these corrective moves v's entering at the start of a wave 3 impulse move. 

If the market does not move in your favor or has invalidated your own count - you can exit as it's clear you have an incorrect count versus staying in and 'hoping' for it to turn. 

As you can see, once the EW analyst labels the waves that have unfolded, then one needs to interpret what legal patterns are embedded in your chart and which pattern will most likely follow - flats (3-3-5), zig-zags (5-3-5) and triangles (3-3-3-3-3). Triangle being the best of course.

*XMJ*
I believe that the XMJ has completed 5 waves down from the high and is correcting. I am assuming that a flat or expanded flat could unfold and this could tie in well with the XAO that needs to complete wave (5) down and then correct back up.

Will take a look at BHP later. Enough work for Saturday night.

Cheers OWG


----------



## Whiskers

Hi OzWaveGuy. I don't know if you follow the AUD/USD, but if you have a moment, what do you think of it?

It seems to have just behaved a little odd for me using EW... to the point that as best I can figure it has just produced a stunted wave 5 on ther hourly to complete the larger degree wave 4 on the daily.

My charts are posted here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=395343#post395343


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Whiskers said:


> Hi OzWaveGuy. I don't know if you follow the AUD/USD, but if you have a moment, what do you think of it?
> 
> It seems to have just behaved a little odd for me using EW... to the point that as best I can figure it has just produced a stunted wave 5 on ther hourly to complete the larger degree wave 4 on the daily.
> 
> My charts are posted here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=395343#post395343




Not sure what type of EW labeling your using there whiskers . 

I took a very quick look at the AUDUSD *weekly* chart and it does appear that there's further to go on the downside - maybe back below 50c which would be about 61% of the first leg down. The logic is: 5 waves down from high is evident, a correction has formed (a-b-c) and maybe complete (although brief), and the next leg down is underway and currently executing wave 2 up.

Haven't looked at the details of the AUD, but there may be a good opportunity to go short and catch a 3rd wave move downwards. You were probably stopped out by this wave 2.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

krk004 said:


> Enjoy the contributions by all on this forum!
> 
> Very much an EW novice, myself.
> 
> Anyone want to give their EW thoughts on Gold, Silver or Platinum?
> 
> Thanks in advance,




Kr

Gold appears to still be correcting down from the high. The latest move up appears corrective as well.  I posted something on Gold a little while back and suggested it would hit around $600 (the apex of a 4th wave Triangle). With all the talk that gold is heading back above a $1000 implies a contrarian move will soon occur - so $600 could be a reasonable target. 

Longer term - I believe gold will head to new highs (unless the Government/NWO take control of the gold price or make it illegal to hold physical gold). The US dollar is most likely going to be toast once the current correction completes and will add further woes to the financial crisis.


----------



## Sean K

OzWaveGuy said:


> Gold appears to still be correcting down from the high.



Is this still the case if the Sep/Oct 08 highs are beaten? POG seems to have stalled around here, but you never know. 

Can't recall you ever doing an EW gold chart, would love to see it again if you have the time. Can't see exactly where the $600 target comes from. If not, no worry.


----------



## amory

when krk004 asked about an EW for Gold, I replied that "I don't think gold lends itself to EW analysis. one is more inclined to study its long & short term up & down channels."

alright then, there is indeed such a channel in existence. the lower line of it commencing at 850 last May, then 750 in September, next low point 720 in October & yes indeed if you project far enough ahead in the same direction, some time in April it should reach the 600 mark.

does this allow for the fact that the Pog is now in an uptrend?  back to my channel!  the July high of it was 980 ... from there to aforesaid low of 720 took a little over 3 months.

theoretically then, anything is possible.  look at OWG's final Flat wave B projection (post #402) for the XMJ ... if you want to be contrarian as can be!

in largely practical terms, doesn't gold move more or less inverse to the USDollar?  seems to me it would require a very firm dollar to drive gold down to 600.

but I would still be very interested in OWG's EW analysis for gold.  especially, within a medium term range, like for a few months ahead.

posting this at an unearthly hour, so ... E&OE .... DYOR!


----------



## OzWaveGuy

amory said:


> in largely practical terms, doesn't gold move more or less inverse to the USDollar?  seems to me it would require a very firm dollar to drive gold down to 600.




In recent years - Yes, the USD and GOLD prices have tended to run inversely with each other. But it's not a rule. There have been periods in the last 35 years that sees USD (v's AUD) and GOLD strengthen at the same time. For example in 1976 - 1980 was one of the longest legs where positive strength in the USD and GOLD were in sync. There are other periods of 1 or 2 years where they have moved in the same direction together.


----------



## amory

OzWaveGuy said:


> In recent years - Yes, the USD and GOLD prices have tended to run inversely with each other. But it's not a rule. There have been periods in the last 35 years that sees USD (v's AUD) and GOLD strengthen at the same time. For example in 1976 - 1980 was one of the longest legs where positive strength in the USD and GOLD were in sync. There are other periods of 1 or 2 years where they have moved in the same direction together.




that's true enough, OzWG, & I would not consider it to be a hard & fast rule.  but quite often it works from extreme points, such as we are experiencing at present.  the USDollar recovering from a recent low & the Pog struggling to maintain a recent high.  

other confusing elements are the Dow ... firm but not yet very convincing, and the 10-y Bond, currently at a 10-year low ... goodbye the flight-into-security ... goldbugs take note!  

all the more reason to look very closely at EW analysis.  but must admit at this point I don't "see" at all clearly.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

An initial assessment of the GOLD wave count. The unfolding Wave (4) could be a triangle or flat. It is also possible wave (4) has completed and an ending diagonal in underway for wave (5) (although unlikely, until a further assessment is conducted should the high be broken).

Wave 2 of (3) is a messy affair - but I would consider it a running flat.

I have included the MACD signal line to help identify the end of wave 3. 

I should also add - that hitting $600 is a possibility but definitely not necessary considering that wave (4) has already penetrated into the price range of the previous wave 4. 

Cheers

OWG


----------



## amory

that's an amazing chart.  thanks OzWG!  within that long channel, it looks like its favoring a temporary downturn to about 750 at (4) possibly over quite a period of time, with an upmove before that, if I'm reading it correctly.

thanks again ...... amory


----------



## krk004

Thanks all for input since my original question.

Will continue to enjoy the informative contributions by all,


----------



## nunthewiser

Gday ozwave

wanna have a look at BHP ST chart and give thought ?

direction thought even better 

the bishop is all one eyed about this stock and i need to point him the way

thanks 

a nun.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

nunthewiser said:


> Gday ozwave
> 
> wanna have a look at BHP ST chart and give thought ?
> 
> direction thought even better
> 
> the bishop is all one eyed about this stock and i need to point him the way
> 
> thanks
> 
> a nun.




Right on. I'm really bearish on BHP - looking for an entry for PUTs atm. Very short term it's actually hard to tell as the wave counts are moving in 3 waves.

My summary is: I'm hoping for a pull back then one more shot at a short term high - it may get to $35 which is a 50% retracement from the all time high and a point of high resistance. Also, at $35.40 this current leg (wave 'b') up would be 138% of the down leg (Wave 'a') from 7/1 to 21/1.

This would imply that an expanded flat (inverted) is occurring for the larger wave 'B' down (and back down to around $20). There is risk in this assessment because since early Jan BHP has been unfolding in 3 waves at various degrees which makes it somewhat hard to pin down until the stock develops a clear trend with impulse moves. Either way, I'm watching it closely for a break away from it's current trend line. 

Also the MACD signal line is currently at an extreme on the 60min chart which hints that another high needs to occur price wise, but with a lower MACD.

Let's see over the next few days.


----------



## nunthewiser

cheers for your time 

your opinion valued


----------



## amory

chart from SyHarding's blog, this will illustrate what I posted yesterday morning about gold better measured in channels rather than by EW.  
notice that the chartist here is using the logarithmic scale.  by projecting to April as I was trying to do, a possible (not very realistic) target is around 650.
not saying this can or will happen, merely a projection based on channel high/lows.


----------



## amory

a better comparison might be this: when Pog fell from its high ~1000 to 850 & then recovered quite strongly.  at that time it was coming down from an up-channel.

what it would want to do now is maybe drop to 750 or 800 before its next upswing.  because it must be admitted that it is again in an up-channel.

perhaps the key to the mystery lies with EW, after all


----------



## Boggo

OzWaveGuy said:


> Right on. I'm really bearish on BHP - looking for an entry for PUTs atm. Very short term it's actually hard to tell as the wave counts are moving in 3 waves.
> 
> My summary is: I'm hoping for a pull back then one more shot at a short term high - it may get to $35 which is a 50% retracement from the all time high and a point of high resistance. Also, at $35.40 this current leg (wave 'b') up would be 138% of the down leg (Wave 'a') from 7/1 to 21/1.
> 
> This would imply that an expanded flat (inverted) is occurring for the larger wave 'B' down (and back down to around $20). There is risk in this assessment because since early Jan BHP has been unfolding in 3 waves at various degrees which makes it somewhat hard to pin down until the stock develops a clear trend with impulse moves. Either way, I'm watching it closely for a break away from it's current trend line.
> 
> Also the MACD signal line is currently at an extreme on the 60min chart which hints that another high needs to occur price wise, but with a lower MACD.
> 
> Let's see over the next few days.




A close above $35.82 (W.1 close) and this count off.
At the moment it looks like a W.4 playing out, until it closes convincingly above this "box" I am looking for a W.5 down to just below $20.

Just my amateur  worth.

(click to enlarge)


----------



## OzWaveGuy

BHP is the flavor of the week.

Note: BHP and the XMJ don't have the same wave counts which is not so unusual, but the mapping out the sector (not provided) first helps in establishing the count.

As mentioned in yesterday's post on BHP, i believe that 5 waves down on BHP and the XMJ have completed and they will most likely correct for some time.

There is a case to establish a flat for the much larger wave 'B' circle. However, this correction may certainly see it's fair share of volatility. Corrections will always be difficult to estimate, however we can do our best by analyzing the wave counts in this correction and matching a flat, zig-zag or triangle to the unfolding structures.

*The Logic*
Wave (A) up is a zig-zag - so this is a '3'. Therefore either a Flat (3-3-5) or Triangle (3-3-3-3-3) (or even a combination) needs to play out.

The next piece of evidence is the 'A' leg (down) after the larger (A) wave up. The 'A' leg is 3 waves also, and small enough to be considered a single wave in a larger (B) wave. The following 'B' wave up (and still underway) is a 3 wave move also (so far). If it stays a 3 and ends soon, then the evidence supports a 5 wave move down to complete the larger (B) wave as a flat (3-3-5).

Note: The BHP daily chart does not have the detail to adequately represent the counts down to wave (5). I used a 60min chart to map out the wave structure. 

Boggo has posted a representation, that could also be considered valid. Although in my opinion wave 4 (red) appears a little too big in comparison with wave 2 (red) although not illegal under EW. Either way I believe we are both calling for BHP to move to the downside - perhaps very soon.

Cheers 

OWG


----------



## OzWaveGuy

There is some risk in assuming the XAO will head downwards as the very short term wave structure is open to interpretation. Either another upwards move needs to occur or the XAO will fall tomorrow and confirm the next leg down.

The upwards move could bring 3533 (50% retracement of wave 'a' circle) back to short term target area.

Cheers 

OWG


----------



## prawn_86

LOL your analysis is as good as mine OWG.

"We could go up, or we could go down"  Thats my kinda thinking, but i dont need letters and numbers to say that


----------



## OzWaveGuy

prawn_86 said:


> LOL your analysis is as good as mine OWG.
> 
> "We could go up, or we could go down"  Thats my kinda thinking, but i dont need letters and numbers to say that




LOL. In this instance you're 100% correct


----------



## amory

used on its own, EW is not much of a prediction tool.  only rarely does it say ... right, this is the direction we're going & this is how far it will take us.  more often than not, you need to wait for completion of a wave or an entire wave pattern to see what you were looking for.

but if there is a clear overall trend, then identification of what EW wave one is in, can help your timing & strategy quite a lot.  likewise for the shorter intermediate waves, where other indicators like RSI or MACD or Coppock or even Volatility will confirm the wave pattern & which way it is heading.

so where would I say the XAO is now?  having completed one or two long & short term patterns ... it is & has been for the last few weeks, forming pretty little waves (both numerical & alphabetical) & totally undecided which way its trying to go.  probably waiting for the DowJones to make up its mind.

FWIW


----------



## OzWaveGuy

OzWaveGuy said:


> There is some risk in assuming the XAO will head downwards as the very short term wave structure is open to interpretation. Either another upwards move needs to occur or the XAO will fall tomorrow and confirm the next leg down.
> 
> The upwards move could bring 3533 (50% retracement of wave 'a' circle) back to short term target area.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> OWG




The XAO wave structure looks much clearer today. Right now the XAO is about to complete a Flat pattern that should see the final leg up (wave c =  5 wave impulse move) to finish near the previous short term high of 3516. Once complete this will finish wave 'b' circle and the XAO should reverse and continue downwards. 

The downwards leg (wave 'c' circle) should be an impulse move of 5 waves and land close to the previous low at around 3225 (a fib ratio of 61.8% of the previous wave 'a' circle leg). This estimate may well change depending on how powerful wave 'c' circle becomes.

I'm sorta hoping that this correction finishes today and  doesn't turn into a more complex correction like we saw with the double 3 that took the whole of December to finish. 

Also, If I have some time later, I'll discuss why I questioned the XAO yesterday.

Cheers  

OWG


----------



## OzWaveGuy

This post is more for the EW enthusiast and discusses the internal workings of the wave 'b' circle flat.

I needed to pull out my Glenn Neely Mastering Elliott Wave book today and look at some of the finer rules relating to Flats (page 11-8 if you have it). 

*FLATs (3-3-5)*
The Flat that has unfolded (or almost unfolded) is one that contains a 'b' wave failure. Flats tend to have all 3 legs of about equal length. There are specific rules that relate to flats should one or more legs be shorter (or longer).

Horizontal Trend lines can be drawn across the start and end point of wave 'a' and the rest of the waves should come close to touching the trend lines.

If the 'b' wave traverses only between 61-80% of wave 'a' then this would be considered a 'b' wave failure. This has occurred on the chart below.

The (c) wave should complete near the end of wave (a). It is rare to have a double failure where wave b and c fail to reach the upper and lower trend lines (within 5-10%).

What led me to believe that something was up yesterday (even though a series of 5 waves down could be seen from the wave (a) top) -  was wave 'c' in the (b) leg down was exactly 76.8% of wave 'a' in the same wave (b). A little too perfect, in addition the XAO rallied yesterday in a 5 wave move upwards which hinted that further upside was on the table. 

*XAO*
The (c) wave on the XAO could be considered complete depending how you count the smaller waves, but one last push would be considered ideal and finish a 5 wave count as well. So perhaps Friday will be a low volume day with only a minor positive movement on the index and the following Monday (or even Friday afternoon) could see the downtrend resume. Let's see.

Cheers

OWG


----------



## nunthewiser

Got them BHP puts in yet m8 ?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

nunthewiser said:


> Got them BHP puts in yet m8 ?




No options yesterday. However, I shorted BHP yesterday after the morning climb, but exited at the low with a small profit


----------



## amory

hi OWG!  just comparing your chart of last night with the one about a week ago.  both times you see some more UP followed by a very bearish looking Down ... if I read you correctly. 

but didn't the overnite Dow come to the rescue!  from very negative to neutral, within no time at all.  so far, the XAO still unable to decide ... the banks being up, but BHP RIO down.  significant also, how the RSI for the XAO was last seen at 51 which is as neutral as can be.

don't reckon the week will close on a decisive note at all.  maybe EW will show up more clearly next week?  because isn't it the predictive capacity which gives an indicator its outstanding qualification?  which I hasten to add, one should never try to force it.  sometimes the market will tell you, sometimes it won't.  EW is no exception to that rule.  either way, next week for sure!  

love your charts ...


----------



## OzWaveGuy

amory said:


> hi OWG!  just comparing your chart of last night with the one about a week ago.  both times you see some more UP followed by a very bearish looking Down ... if I read you correctly.




Depends on what time frame you are referring to....the larger trend is still down.



> but didn't the overnite Dow come to the rescue!




Really don't follow the DOW that much - some days it appears to influence the XAO and some not. I leave it out of the EW equation altogether.





> love your charts ...




Thanks


----------



## bullbear39

Not sure if this is too far "off-thread"??
Has anyone in ASF got some hands-on experience to share about the eSignal Advanced GET system? I sat through one of their online talks the other day and noted a few things, good and bad. Here's what I picked up.

*The Good *

 Automatically plots Elliott Waves at the click of a button

Has a good user definable scanner (optional extra I think)

A very good "dashboard" setup where you can monitor a whole range of instruments at one time - they flash certain colours when the (proprietary) trigger is hit

They have some pretty clear cut entry/exit signals along with a proprietary trend confirmation indicator called a "false bar" that alerts you when the trend is continuing (or not)

Initial price is not as ridiculous as some others going around

They've been around for 20 years apparently, and have some heavyweight traders providing testimonials (ie. John Bollinger among others)

*The Bad*

Lots of proprietary triggers means you're pretty much at their mercy. Sure if it works, then you'd be happy to stay with them, but the continuing cost of staying with them may blow out in future. PS: Main trigger is a Stochastic (14,3,3) crossover. 

Not enough info on other prices was supplied (broker/ brokerage/ data/ membership fees etc - all gray areas that weren't covered)

Suspected "plant" in the chat room who kept chiming in how great it was

I asked a direct question to the meeting administrator "how often do the signals fail" to which I was carefully ignored. Lots of other minor questions  got snapped up and answered quickly, but not mine. 

The administrator said he was going to apply them on some charts and I asked him if they could be live - to which he responded "the market is closed here in the USA" - to which I and another responded that he could do it on Forex - oh yeah, forgot about that one! He did open up a live FX minute chart but I noticed their "false bar" signal was clearly wrong saying the trend was to continue up when it was obviously diving. He got out of that chart way too quickly then, probably thinking no-one realised it was wrong.

Ok maybe I'm paranoid. It did look really good and I like the fact they've been around so long. But I wonder wether a system like this would "dumb-you-down" as a trader, instead of honing your skills? And another thing, surely it can't work all the time... or they could charge 10 times what they're asking. So where are the stats for the failures?

Has anyone out there bought this? Are you using it as prescribed and is it making you a more profitable trader?


----------



## tech/a

bullbear39 said:


> Not sure if this is too far "off-thread"??
> Has anyone in ASF got some hands-on experience to share about the eSignal Advanced GET system? I sat through one of their online talks the other day and noted a few things, good and bad. Here's what I picked up.
> 
> *The Good *
> 
> Automatically plots Elliott Waves at the click of a button
> 
> Has a good user definable scanner (optional extra I think)
> 
> A very good "dashboard" setup where you can monitor a whole range of instruments at one time - they flash certain colours when the (proprietary) trigger is hit
> 
> They have some pretty clear cut entry/exit signals along with a proprietary trend confirmation indicator called a "false bar" that alerts you when the trend is continuing (or not)
> 
> Initial price is not as ridiculous as some others going around
> 
> They've been around for 20 years apparently, and have some heavyweight traders providing testimonials (ie. John Bollinger among others)
> 
> *The Bad*
> 
> Lots of proprietary triggers means you're pretty much at their mercy. Sure if it works, then you'd be happy to stay with them, but the continuing cost of staying with them may blow out in future. PS: Main trigger is a Stochastic (14,3,3) crossover.
> 
> Not enough info on other prices was supplied (broker/ brokerage/ data/ membership fees etc - all gray areas that weren't covered)
> 
> Suspected "plant" in the chat room who kept chiming in how great it was
> 
> I asked a direct question to the meeting administrator "how often do the signals fail" to which I was carefully ignored. Lots of other minor questions  got snapped up and answered quickly, but not mine.
> 
> The administrator said he was going to apply them on some charts and I asked him if they could be live - to which he responded "the market is closed here in the USA" - to which I and another responded that he could do it on Forex - oh yeah, forgot about that one! He did open up a live FX minute chart but I noticed their "false bar" signal was clearly wrong saying the trend was to continue up when it was obviously diving. He got out of that chart way too quickly then, probably thinking no-one realised it was wrong.
> 
> Ok maybe I'm paranoid. It did look really good and I like the fact they've been around so long. But I wonder wether a system like this would "dumb-you-down" as a trader, instead of honing your skills? And another thing, surely it can't work all the time... or they could charge 10 times what they're asking. So where are the stats for the failures?
> 
> Has anyone out there bought this? Are you using it as prescribed and is it making you a more profitable trader?




Have EOD GET myself.

Will call back today and post some hopefully independant non biased comments to your post. Have some appointments first.

I think there is an AGet thread so perhaps would be better there.
If not I'll start one.


----------



## Phillip

Hi all

I do a little EW myself but do not consider myself no where near as efficient in order to trade on my analysis, albeit I respect EW and traders who trade on it on a frequent basis. But I would like to pose a question if I may.

I have been buying CSCO on the Nasdaq around the us$16 area and I have tried to implement some sort of EW analysis on the chart. I am truly confused with the tight range bound market. I bought CSCO based on fundamentals [ $34 billion warchest and on the prowl coupled with a tight ranging pattern, hopefully she shall break to the upside]

Can someone please conjure a CSCO EW chart? Or am I asking for too much?

TIA

Phillip


----------



## tech/a

CSCO is in a wave 4 of 5 down side conslidation pattern.
It is clear on the Weekly that it is in the final throws of an ABC corrective move,which will I think morph into a wave 5 down pattern like the daily over time.
From what I see I think there is more weakness ahead from my analysis.

First chart is *Daily* and the second* Weekly *Click on chart to expand.

3rd chart is my own preference its more symetrical.


----------



## Phillip

Thanks tech/a, very good.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Continuing from here--> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=397108&postcount=425

The XAO very short term Wave (c) could still have some further upside to go, perhaps passing the top of the (a) wave.

Inspecting the 5min chart, it does look as if the first leg of the (c) wave could be a 3 wave move - This raises the potential of an ending diagonal unfolding for wave (c). If this is the case, then a little more upside is required for completion.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

*XMJ*
The XMJ (resource sector) may have further to go before a reversal takes place. It appears that a five wave advance is unfolding and we nearing the completion of a small wave 4. One last push upward to complete a wave 5 is necessary.

If this breakout upwards does occur in the currently consolidating small wave 4, then the XMJ may have a run at the 10k mark or slightly under. This would place the retracement near the top of a previous wave 4. I would still consider the leg up from the 21st Nov a flat with a 'b' wave failure at this stage until evidence suggest otherwise (probably not a statement of strength as the non-EWers who frequent this thread will possibly point out, but corrections will always be hard to pin down until they are almost over  ). Once complete a strong reversal should unfold. 

Breaking below 8800 would make me reconsider the above view, but as of right now a 5 wave move to the downside is not evident and is therefore suggesting the larger upwards correction is incomplete.

Cheers OWG


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> *XMJ*
> The XMJ (resource sector) may have further to go before a reversal takes place. It appears that a five wave advance is unfolding and we nearing the completion of a small wave 4. One last push upward to complete a wave 5 is necessary.
> 
> If this breakout upwards does occur in the currently consolidating small wave 4, then the XMJ may have a run at the 10k mark or slightly under. This would place the retracement near the top of a previous wave 4. I would still consider the leg up from the 21st Nov a flat with a 'b' wave failure at this stage until evidence suggest otherwise (probably not a statement of strength as the non-EWers who frequent this thread will possibly point out, but corrections will always be hard to pin down until they are almost over  ). Once complete a strong reversal should unfold.
> 
> Breaking below 8800 would make me reconsider the above view, but as of right now a 5 wave move to the downside is not evident and is therefore suggesting the larger upwards correction is incomplete.
> 
> Cheers OWG





Hi OWG,

I am following your discourse on the XMJ with interest and would like to clear up one point to ensure that I am following your thinking correctly.

In your post https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=395312&postcount=402  you had suggested a possible 'Double Zigzag (5-3-5) for wave B. 

Am I correct in assuming that you are now suggesting an impulse wave for wave B in lieu of your former suggestion?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> I am following your discourse on the XMJ with interest and would like to clear up one point to ensure that I am following your thinking correctly.
> 
> In your post https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=395312&postcount=402  you had suggested a possible 'Double Zigzag (5-3-5) for wave B.
> 
> Am I correct in assuming that you are now suggesting an impulse wave for wave B in lieu of your former suggestion?




*XMJ*
A flat correction would be preferred for the XMJ. The XMJ does appear to be developing a wave 4 triangle on the 5min chart, but it also supports a completed 5 waves up as well (with a much smaller wave for wave 4 instead). Breaking below 8890, would lead me to believe the downtrend has resumed for the XMJ.

*XAO*
Looking at the finer XAO movements today, it strongly supports the scenario for the completed wave 'b' circle. Discussed here ---> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=397108&postcount=425 , one last push upwards did occur last Friday (although not exactly to the top of wave (a), but was very close) and now the start of 5 waves down appears to be unfolding as well - the next leg down on the XAO is underway. Whether this is true for the XMJ remains to be seen, but a break below the level described above would lead me to believe this is the case.

Cheers OWG


----------



## Lachlan6

This is how I have counted the intraday action. Looks like the bearish count (red count) is going to play out given the state of the Futures. Watch out below.


----------



## bullbear39

tech/a said:


> Have EOD GET myself.
> 
> Will call back today and post some hopefully independant non biased comments to your post. Have some appointments first.
> 
> I think there is an AGet thread so perhaps would be better there.
> If not I'll start one.




So tech/a... what's the verdict on advGET? Is it a "must have" in your toolbox?


----------



## tech/a

bullbear39 said:


> So tech/a... what's the verdict on advGET? Is it a "must have" in your toolbox?




Started an AGET thread for Aget Questions.

Must have. No I dont think so.
It's been and is a handy analysis tool.
It is very powerful but like most I'm sure I under utilize it.


----------



## bullbear39

tech/a said:


> Started an AGET thread for Aget Questions.
> 
> Must have. No I dont think so.
> It's been and is a handy analysis tool.
> It is very powerful but like most I'm sure I under utilize it.




Thanks for your feedback tech, I'll check out the thread...


----------



## Lachlan6

Here is a continuation from my last post re intra day action. Looks like the SPX is poised for another surge lower after forming what appears to be a triangle wave 4.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Ho Hum. Is it just me, or does the leg down from Monday to Wednesday look like a 3 wave move? An intervening 'X' wave perhaps?  I wouldn't be surprised to see the XAO move further sideways either as a unfolding triangle or a more complex correction (another Double 3? Let's hope not, the odds are remote).

A triangle would be preferred if we must have further sideways action. This would definitely indicate a 3 wave move is unfolding which implies a flat for the larger wave (4). Hence, some sideways for a bit longer, one more down leg (to a double bottom?) and then a reversal back to around 3800.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Ho Hum. Is it just me, or does the leg down from Monday to Wednesday look like a 3 wave move? An intervening 'X' wave perhaps?  I wouldn't be surprised to see the XAO move further sideways either as a unfolding triangle or a more complex correction (another Double 3? Let's hope not, the odds are remote).
> 
> A triangle would be preferred if we must have further sideways action. This would definitely indicate a 3 wave move is unfolding which implies a flat for the larger wave (4). Hence, some sideways for a bit longer, one more down leg (to a double bottom?) and then a reversal back to around 3800.




Hi OWG,

Earlier this morning I had the feeling that we might be seeing the beginnings of an ending diagonal for the final wave in wave B.  At market close I don't see anything to change my mind.


----------



## tech/a

Trying to work out how a corrective move particularly a complex one is going to pan out is just as difficult as picking the next 6 mths Saturday night Lotto numbers.

Frankly constant change and speculation doesnt do the analysis any good in the eyes of those who know little about it.
They see the experts constantly altering their counts and possibilities.
This has them thinking that the analysis is no better than guessing.

Really its a matter of plotting possibilities and allowing the price action to eliminate them. Attempting to trade---what could be (if its not clear) isnt sound practice.

In my not so humble opinion.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

tech/a said:


> Trying to work out how a corrective move particularly a complex one is going to pan out is just as difficult as picking the next 6 mths Saturday night Lotto numbers.




Some thoughts on the above statement to consider...
Whilst complex corrections can be hard to stay in front of,  the advantage is that if you can identify the complex correction early enough, then one will be in a solid position as the breakout occurs. 

The recent double 3 in December was a reasonably complex correction that took a month to unfold, but it was so 'text book' it become obvious once it was around 75% complete. From a lotto standpoint - we were given the first 4 numbers, the last two were provided once the breakout occurred.

Some patterns appear more often in certain situations, so the odds turn in your favor by isolating a few patterns up front (eg triangles, ending diagonals). Nothing wrong with using this thread to bounce these ideas (I hadn't actually considered an ending Diagonal, but it's a high possibility for wave C's)

As for the EW trader, shorter term trades will become more prevalent during corrective periods - again still looking for the obvious 5-3 and triangle patterns. All depends on the timeframe your looking at. 

In case people missed a key point hidden in this discussion: By the mere fact that the EW count hasn't unfolded as anticipated, then this says to me: *exercise caution or bring the stops in closer and be more defensive until clarity is restored. 
*. So your actually getting an advance warning that things aren't as they seem (yet).

Cheers

OWG


----------



## biggles

Thanks guys for this thread. As a person trying to get my head around EW this thread is so helpful and educational.There are no others like this on the net covering Oz markets 
Thanks


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> At market close I don't see anything to change my mind.




I should have pointed out in my post yesterday (sorry in a rush) that to assert the market must follow a specific path too early in the process will only result in disaster. There are *always* several ways a market can unfold when dealing with corrective waves (3 wave moves), and I believe it's too early to confirm what is actually happening on the XAO (although I am considering a couple of possibilities). 

Historically, the most accurate calls i've made on corrections (before they have ended) in terms of naming the type, ending points etc is usually when they are 70-80% complete or in the last leg of completion. I'm not sure I can do any better than that. The exception to this is when the EW analysis indicates an impending correction is at hand (eg wave 4) - so you are reasonably certain you know something is about to happen - but not exactly sure what. We do know that triangles frequent in wave 4 positions, so this can become a base assumption until proven correct or incorrect. 

Additionally, as the correction nears it's completion, the EW analyst can usually map out the proceeding roadmap with a reasonable level of accuracy. So for example, after a wave 4 triangle you know that the market will continue for a period of time (perhaps a fib ratio of a previous wave) before another correction or a reversal occurs.

There's nothing wrong with identifying a couple of possible wave structures that may unfold in specific positions, but to hold a very strong view too early in the process will usually work against you.

My


----------



## OzWaveGuy

biggles said:


> Thanks guys for this thread. As a person trying to get my head around EW this thread is so helpful and educational.There are no others like this on the net covering Oz markets
> Thanks




Thanks Biggles. Good to hear your picking up good info from this thread. If you don't mind me asking: Have you purchased any EW books, if so, which one(s).


----------



## biggles

OWG I have 2 ,Dynamic trader and Elliot wave principle by Prechter and Frost.
Slowly getting on top of it all. These complex waves are a challenge though, especially when the book only shows them in a Bull market. Tried scanning the patterns and inverting them in Photoshop but not sure if they are correct. Should be but I think a triangle is allowable only as a final component. Not too clear on this p 52. I will have to read this section yet again


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Some clarity may be unfolding on the recent XAO action.

*First Chart from Oct 29th*
Take a look at the chart posted back in Oct 08 (this is the larger wave '3', but labeled as 'iii' in this old chart). Note: I'm looking specifically at the down leg from the end of wave 'ii' to the end of wave 'iii' in this first chart. This particular down leg is interesting for a couple of reasons:

Wave (V) was the extended wave and 200% of wave (III)
Wave (IV) retraced 61.8% of wave (III)
Wave (II) was a flat and wave (III) was a zig-zag (so alternation between corrective waves is very evident).

When wave 4's retrace 61.8% of wave 3, this indicates that wave 5 will be the extended wave. Glenn Neely discusses this in the book 'Mastering Elliott Wave' starting page 11-2 - Impulse Patterns (if you have it).

It should be noted that within this extended 5th wave in Oct, there was an  extended 5th wave within it too (an extension of an extension - so to speak). Wave '4' circle retraced almost 61.8% implying this additional extension.

*2nd Chart - Recent XAO Action*
So, Looking at the recent action from the top of wave 'b' circle, there is some similarity to the October action last year. Wave 'iv' has retraced 61.8% of wave 'iii', the wave pattern is still legal (eg no overlaps, wave 3 not the shortest etc). 

Wave 'ii' is a flat and wave 'iv' is a zig-zag (so again, alternation between corrective waves is very evident here also).

Hence, it is possible that a strong downside leg is about to unfold for the larger wave 'c' circle leg and is an extended 5th wave. A break below the end of wave '1' circle would confirm this specific wave count. A break higher from here and into the price range of wave 'ii' would invalidate this scenario.

There is still potential for more sideways action or alternative scenarios unfolding (as recently discussed on this thread), although I believe we now have a little more information of what is about to unfold on the XAO.

Cheers 

OWG


----------



## OzWaveGuy

I should point out in the above post that the 2nd chart is actually the XJO not the XAO  , but both work so closely together that there's not a big difference in the short term wave structures at the moment.


----------



## Lachlan6

It looks like the SPX has now completed 5 waves to the downside. I am now expecting a bounce to occur to take it up to the 790 - 807 area before falling over once again. Amazing how potent MACD divergence is. Take a look at the precursor to the two very important lows on the attcahed chart.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

*GOLD*

Someone had requested a view of GOLD a couple of weeks ago and I posted this longer term EW view---> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=395833&postcount=410

The chart below takes a closer look at the 3 wave corrective action occurring for the larger wave (4). A series of combined zig-zag corrections took gold lower and again a 3 wave move has taken gold higher. So x2 larger 3 wave moves have occurred - this supports either a flat (3-3-5) or a Triangle (3-3-3-3-3) or even an ending diagonal up to wave (5).

At this point I'm counting on a Flat or Triangle to unfold. The 2nd leg of this wave (4) correction could be considered complete (or about to complete). The 1hr chart does show a smaller 5 wave move upwards complete as well for wave 5. 

If a flat unfolds, then 5 waves down to complete wave (4) will occur. For a triangle 3 waves down to complete the 'c' leg will occur.

A break above the top could still occur and turn wave (4) into a expanded flat correction (5 waves down for wave c will still need to occur)


----------



## OzWaveGuy

biggles said:


> OWG I have 2 ,Dynamic trader and Elliot wave principle by Prechter and Frost.
> Slowly getting on top of it all. These complex waves are a challenge though, especially when the book only shows them in a Bull market. Tried scanning the patterns and inverting them in Photoshop but not sure if they are correct. Should be but I think a triangle is allowable only as a final component. Not too clear on this p 52. I will have to read this section yet again




Prechter's EW Principle is a very good starting point for most - was the first EW book I purchased. If scanning in and inverting the patterns helps you then go for it. There's a defined number of patterns, so once you are familiar with them, its a matter of identifying them on a chart as you go.

And yes, re-reading the content is something I have done many times to get my head around a chapter or two


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Some clarity may be unfolding on the recent XAO action.
> 
> 
> *2nd Chart - Recent XAO Action*
> So, Looking at the recent action from the top of wave 'b' circle, there is some similarity to the October action last year. Wave 'iv' has retraced 61.8% of wave 'iii', the wave pattern is still legal (eg no overlaps, wave 3 not the shortest etc).
> 
> Wave 'ii' is a flat and wave 'iv' is a zig-zag (so again, alternation between corrective waves is very evident here also).
> 
> Hence, it is possible that a strong downside leg is about to unfold for the larger wave 'c' circle leg and is an extended 5th wave. A break below the end of wave '1' circle would confirm this specific wave count. A break higher from here and into the price range of wave 'ii' would invalidate this scenario.
> 
> There is still potential for more sideways action or alternative scenarios unfolding (as recently discussed on this thread), although I believe we now have a little more information of what is about to unfold on the XAO.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> OWG






Hi OWG,

Have you considered the possibility that in your second chart your wave '1' circle could have been a truncated wave 'v' and hence that wave 'c' circle and the higher cycle wave B may have also completed ?  

A large rally would validate that scenario.

Cheers

Rudy


----------



## OzWaveGuy

It's possible, but how many truncated 5ths have you seen in the last 3months? I don't think I've seen one to-date on the XAO - for individual stocks they happen occasionally. Hence, odds are very low. 

If a small rally did eventuate then I would assume more sideways action that extends the wave 'b' circle flat correction.


----------



## brerwallabi

I don't usually post here these days but thought I would throw a chart in, I very bearish S&P,DOW and obviously XAO.
I am the opposite on gold and see the current move as the commencement of the 5th and final wave in the current cycle and this current movement as wave 1 in the final leg.
Welcome some views.


----------



## biggles

Has anyone bought the book by Steve Poser "Applying EW theory profitably"
Is it worth buying ?


----------



## Nick Radge

biggles,
Yes, and I think it ordinary. It was quite a let down in my view. Dynamic Trading by Robert Miner remains a favorite of mine.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

*Wave (4) Flat*
For wave (4) to be a flat (or a triangle) then the smaller wave 'B' down should end soon. The smaller waves within this last leg are providing some useful information as discussed last week--> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=400076&postcount=452 

*3223 Target Area*
3223 on the XAO is a Fibonacci target area where two levels meet. Fib ratios of wave 'a' circle down and smaller wave 'iii' meet at this point (as shown). The evidence also supports a small 5th wave extension as discussed in the previous post, making 3223 a realistic target considering the evidence at hand (in addition, from a TA standpoint, the XAO will form a double bottom)

*Alternate Count*
I have introduced an alternate count as well that sees wave (4) already completed. Whilst this is definitely a possibility, I don't put much weight on this alternate count as it would mean the larger wave (4) is a simple zig-zag correction that only lasted 70% of the time wave (2) took to correct. There is an expectation that time will influence wave (4) more than price, as wave (2) in Mar 08, was influenced more by price than time and retraced just over 50% of wave (1). For reasonable alternation between corrective waves and using Elliott Wave as a guide, then this 4th wave should take longer to unfold (although this is not mandatory).

*XAO falls off a Cliff*
It should also be noted that another count also exists: If the XAO 'breaks' aggressively downward, and wave (4) ends up being the simple zig-zag, then I would be inclined to show wave (4) as a wave 2 instead. This means more subdivisions are unfolding and we are at the start of wave 3 of (3) - a highly aggressive leg in EW terms. This implies the XAO would tumble off the edge of a cliff.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy;401131
[B said:
			
		

> XAO falls off a Cliff[/B]
> It should also be noted that another count also exists: If the XAO 'breaks' aggressively downward, and wave (4) ends up being the simple zig-zag, then I would be inclined to show wave (4) as a wave 2 instead. This means more subdivisions are unfolding and we are at the start of wave 3 of (3) - a highly aggressive leg in EW terms. This implies the XAO would tumble off the edge of a cliff.




Hi OWG,

I tend to favour the above scenario as I am quite bearish on the S&P500.  Last night the S&P500 closed at 743.3 just above a critical level of 741.  The main support below that level is around the 637.  I currently have the S&P500 in wave 3 of wave (5) so expect it to break through the 741 level in the medium term even if there is a bounce tomorrow.

That would drag our market down with it.  I acknowledge that you don't look at other markets to support your current EW counts on the XAO.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> I tend to favour the above scenario as I am quite bearish on the S&P500.  Last night the S&P500 closed at 743.3 just above a critical level of 741.  The main support below that level is around the 637.  I currently have the S&P500 in wave 3 of wave (5) so expect it to break through the 741 level in the medium term even if there is a bounce tomorrow.
> 
> That would drag our market down with it.  I acknowledge that you don't look at other markets to support your current EW counts on the XAO.




I would say today's XAO action completed wave B down. Not quite hitting 3223, but not far away either  . Will now need to see if the other alternative counts will play out. Breaking higher now and beyond the wave 'b' circle end point @ 3500 should confirm wave 'c' circle up.

As for other markets (and I've probably mentioned this before), how do you define their influence on the XAO. Some days there 'appears' to be influence and other days there's not. The XAO should have been down a lot lower than 19.1 points after the DOW last night if you believe markets must influence each other in this way. They DO get in sync esp when they are both in 5 wave moves, but quickly fall out of sync as well. 

Remember when the XAO 'led' the rest of the world on Nov 21st last year? The XAO had finished 5 waves down and moved into positive territory even after an extremely poor night on the DOW and S&P500. The global social mood is negative (for a myriad of reasons), so the markets will fall, just not always in sync as much as one may like.

Cheers

OWG


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> As for other markets (and I've probably mentioned this before), how do you define their influence on the XAO. Some days there 'appears' to be influence and other days there's not. The XAO should have been down a lot lower than 19.1 points after the DOW last night if you believe markets must influence each other in this way. They DO get in sync esp when they are both in 5 wave moves, but quickly fall out of sync as well.
> 
> Remember when the XAO 'led' the rest of the world on Nov 21st last year? The XAO had finished 5 waves down and moved into positive territory even after an extremely poor night on the DOW and S&P500. The global social mood is negative (for a myriad of reasons), so the markets will fall, just not always in sync as much as one may like.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> OWG




Hi OWG,

I have been studying the XJO and S&P500 for many years now and it is obvious that one is not an identical twin of the other.  The patterns are quite different over a number of years however to suggest that our markets are totally isolated and de-coupled defies common sense from a fundamentals perspective.  

There are times when the two indices are more closely connected than other times.  At the current time their major turning points are reasonably closely coupled even though the resultant patterns are different. I think that it is perfectly reasonable to say that it is unlikely that the US would be in a major impulse wave down (by major I mean in terms of time period) whilst we are in a major impulse wave in the opposite direction.

All I say is that the US market has a significant influence on not only our market but also most other markets in the industrialised world purely because we do have a global economy and what affects the US will more often than not  have an influence on what happens to other global economies who trade with the US or are otherwise economically connected to the largest consumer on the planet.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> I have been studying the XJO and S&P500 for many years now and it is obvious that one is not an identical twin of the other.  The patterns are quite different over a number of years however to suggest that our markets are totally isolated and de-coupled defies common sense from a fundamentals perspective.




Rudy,

I'm not sure I can really answer all your question/statements here. But here goes...

Firstly, Your assertion that I have indicated that the markets are totally independent is incorrect. *Analyse them independently. Period. * Don't let other market actions interfere with your EW analysis - It won't work, so ignore it.

The dependency between the markets of the *Global economy* is purely human - namely social mood. The world *is progressing* and each market progresses individually. The social mood can be influenced (eg credit boom since the 70's for much of the western world) and if the resultant markets get in sync for periods of time - so be it.

Your assertion that economies like Australia and the US should be reasonably close (at least by a few years) is incorrect. It simply doesn't have to be that way - looked at the Japan v's the US charts over the last 29 years? These are the largest economies in the world (or at least Japan was in the top 2) so you'd think they'd both roughly be in sync. They are divergent, and only coming into sync for small periods of time. Why couldn't Australia or any other country be in the very same position  v's the US?

In the future, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Chinese and Japanese lead the world out of the coming depression, whilst the US and other countries deteriorate for years to come (so perhaps Japan and the US markets will effectively swap their relative economic positions as the social mood increases in Japan and declines in the US - who knows, only theorizing).


----------



## nunthewiser

OzWaveGuy said:


> In the future, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Chinese and Japanese lead the world out of the coming depression, whilst the US and other countries deteriorate for years to come (so perhaps Japan and the US markets will effectively swap their relative economic positions as the social mood increases in Japan and declines in the US - who knows, only theorizing).




amen


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Ok EWers. 1st prize to anyone who can see a very recent double 3 correction on the XAO - it's small but it's there. Was discussed for a few weeks not long ago, so put your skills to the test. 

It may even provide a hint on the direction of the XAO tomorrow.


----------



## nunthewiser

wants a prize without pointing at double 3,s or chatting EW with ya

XAO heading south tommorow

all personal opinion of course 

prolly wrong ,happy not to be


----------



## nunthewiser

OzWaveGuy said:


> Ok EWers. 1st prize to anyone who can see a very recent double 3 correction on the XAO - it's small but it's there. Was discussed for a few weeks not long ago, so put your skills to the test.
> 
> It may even provide a hint on the direction of the XAO tomorrow.




so whats your thoughts on tomorrow?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

nunthewiser said:


> so whats your thoughts on tomorrow?




Is it too late to respond on this one?


----------



## nunthewiser

OzWaveGuy said:


> Is it too late to respond on this one?




no not at all . wouldnt mind hearing your thoughts on direction for tommorow ie friday


----------



## OzWaveGuy

nunthewiser said:


> no not at all . wouldnt mind hearing your thoughts on direction for tommorow ie friday




Triangle is forming (part of a small zig-zag correction upwards). Either the last leg of this wave 'b' triangle is done already or just about to (maybe back down to 3290) before a push up to around 3350 commences (hopefully today). Whether this upwards zig-zag correction is part of a more complex correction upwards is unclear.

Either way. Once the zig-zag finishes @ the assumed 3350, a correction downwards will follow.

For the EWers. This means the wave (4) flat is out. The remaining possibility for wave (4) is a triangle or a double correction (or something more ominous to the downside). A break below the recent low will bring the alternative wave count front and center.

There is a very small chance that a rare (and bizarre) megaphone shaped 5th wave extension is occurring upwards - and to much greater upside, but I'll leave that on the sideline for the moment.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Ok EWers. 1st prize to anyone who can see a very recent double 3 correction on the XAO - it's small but it's there. Was discussed for a few weeks not long ago, so put your skills to the test.
> 
> It may even provide a hint on the direction of the XAO tomorrow.




No takers? A fair number of people read this thread - no EWers left?


----------



## biggles

I'm looking but can't see a recent one. A double 3 being an a,b,c W, X, a, b ,c Y.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

*Wave (4) Flat gone! Triangle?*
For the wave (4) flat to be valid, 5 waves up needed to occur after the completion of the 'B' wave down. This didn't occur, but instead it appears a small triangle as part of a zig-zag correction upwards is underway and this immediately removes the flat scenario - as we need 5's up, not 3's.

The small triangle is most likely a 'b' wave of a zig-zag, so the remaining leg up needs to occur to around 3350 (161% of the 'a' leg up)

*Red Flag - XAO at Pivotal Juncture*
This corrective move up is very bearish for the XAO. So either wave (4) is a triangle and this 'C' leg up is going to be a flat or a complex correction (which makes sense as the 'A' and 'B' legs are zig-zags) OR a smaller wave (ii) is about to complete (alt count) with severe downside consequences.

Once this small correction finishes (possibly tomorrow), then a break below the alt (i) end point will almost certainly confirm further downside targets. The only saving grace for the XAO should the alt (i) level be broken is for an expanded flat scenario to occur for wave 'C' up (or part thereof), which is not uncommon for a leg in a triangle.

Once the short term moves complete, then there should be some reasonable clarity on the next major move. This is certainly not a positive situation for the XAO right now, you might need to hold onto your hat shortly

Cheers

OWG

Note: Small double 3 shown on chart.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Ok EWers. 1st prize to anyone who can see a very recent double 3 correction on the XAO - it's small but it's there. Was discussed for a few weeks not long ago, so put your skills to the test.
> 
> It may even provide a hint on the direction of the XAO tomorrow.




Hi OWG,

Forgive me, I have attempted to respond to your question on the XJO instead of the XAO.  They are pretty close in action anyway.

Would the double 3 correction perchance be the following one ?


----------



## Porper

Rudy said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> Forgive me, I have attempted to respond to your question on the XJO instead of the XAO.  They are pretty close in action anyway.
> 
> Would the double 3 correction perchance be the following one ?
> 
> View attachment 28268




Hello Rudy,

In my opinion what you have labelled is more like a double zig zag, that is an a,b,c down, 3 waves up to an "X" wave, then another zig zag.You are spot on in labelling it W,X,Y though.

Double 3's tend to be sideways corrections mainly because only 1 zig zag is allowed.

Also worth remembering is that wave B must retrace at least 20% of wave A.I don't trade ASX stocks so don't have data otherwise I would post a chart.Maybe somebody will post the double three that Wavepicker has shown close up.


----------



## biggles

HI Porper, you can get the chart here for free. I hope this link works. I can't work out how to write on it. Need hubbies help when he gets in
http://www.quote.com/global/stocks/...CANDLE&chartUi.size=800x550&chartUi.minutes=3


----------



## Rudy

Porper said:


> Hello Rudy,
> 
> In my opinion what you have labelled is more like a double zig zag, that is an a,b,c down, 3 waves up to an "X" wave, then another zig zag.You are spot on in labelling it W,X,Y though.
> 
> Double 3's tend to be sideways corrections mainly because only 1 zig zag is allowed.
> 
> Also worth remembering is that wave B must retrace at least 20% of wave A.I don't trade ASX stocks so don't have data otherwise I would post a chart.Maybe somebody will post the double three that Wavepicker has shown close up.




Hi Porper,

I do agree with you there Porper.  I was trying to find a double 'anything' and the closest thing that I could find was that double zigzag.  Taken in the larger scheme of things I am more inclined to think that we are currently in an impulse wave down.  The following is a chart that I had prepared earlier in the day which shows what I mean.

The only fly in the ointment is the fact that my wave (iv) has gone into the price range of my wave (i) so it's possible that we have yet another extension within the 3rd wave in my impulse move down.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

*XAO*
With the break below the levels here cited here--> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=402507&postcount=476

and also the break of the Nov 08 low, it does appear (at a minimum) that wave (5) down is underway.

Tomorrow could see some minor upside before reversing.

*Wave (5) Possible Downside Targets*
Assuming the Wave (4) did finish in early Jan, then:


if wave (5) = (1), another 1160 points to go on the downside
if wave (5) = 61.8% of (1) then another 500 points to go on the downside.

The unfolding short term waves will provide further guidance over the next several days. So far, the larger upwards corrections since the end of wave (4) on the 7th Jan are considered a series of wave 2's. This would mean some strong downside should now unfold as we work through a set of wave 3's. If this strong downside doesn't unfold, then something else may be about to happen.

In addition, the news for the last few weeks has been particularly bad, so a reversal wouldn't have been out of the question. However, at the moment, adhering to the wave counts is needed as it does appear a 5th wave down is unfolding.

Cheers

OWG


----------



## OzWaveGuy

*XAO*

The XAO is moving downwards and unfolding in 5 waves. I can only assume that wave (5) is underway, but there is potential for further subdivisions to unfold as well that extend the bigger wave (3).

What is needed now is to work the individual waves downwards looking for wave alternation and fib relationships to determine the sub-divisions within wave 3 of (5). 

Today's small leg up from the low could be considered another subdivision of wave 3 and labeled as a 'i' and 'ii'. Alternatively, wave (iii) could have ended today, that will see more downside before the bigger wave '4'  corrects upwards. However, if this was the case, there doesn't seem to be enough price movement between the start of wave '3' and the impending start of wave '4'. So for now we'll label today's action a completed 'i' and wave 'ii' still underway until further clarification is at hand.

There's still a remote chance that wave (4) is still underway and this downwards leg is wave 'B'. Mentioned some weeks ago - if a triangle does unfold for wave (4), then the 'B' leg may find a new low before wave 'C' up commences. If this is the case then the 'B' wave down will finish very soon. Drawing parallel trend lines thru this down leg and waiting for an initial 5 wave break upwards out of the channel would give a clue to more upside to support wave 'C'  of (4).

Cheers

OWG


----------



## Stock360

Here are the answers:

1. I've been using EWT for trading for quite some time and I know quite a number of people around the globe who have mastered this theory and they have successfully applied this concept in their trading.

2. EWT is my core methodology, what I do is basically identify those stocks who are in Long Term Uptrend and then try trading based on the upcoming Waves. However, EWT alone is not enough and you need to combine it with other more common Technical Analysis Indicators.

3. I normally trade in a time frame of anything between 1 to 6 weeks (3 weeks as an average) and I've found EWT to be best working in this time frame.

4. You may even end-up having 100% success ratio, the only challenge is to be able to identify the Waves Correctly. You'll realize immediately your mistake (of in-correctly identifying wave counts) as soon as you've gone into a loss.

5. Well, I thought that depends on the particular stock's performance. What you need to understand is that EWT can not enhance the performance of your trade but can help you to trade with a confidence.

6. Again depends on how accurate your wave count is

7. Quite high. Since the popularity has increased for CFDs and Short Selling, you can even identify those stocks who are currently in down-trend and then short sell on them by applying the same EWT concepts

Last addition: EWT has proved to be a very successful trading system however its best used with the high volume and high activity stocks. I've often found it working best with the Forex and Market Indices.

All the best with everyone who is learning EWT.

Cheers





theasxgorilla said:


> Some questions for the contributors:
> 
> 1. Who actually trades using Elliott Wave?
> 
> 2. If you trade using EW, what proportion of your analysis involves EW? ie. is it core to your technical analysis, or is it a bolt-on extra, applied after some other trend identification method brings something to your attention?
> 
> 3. What time-frame do you trade in?
> 
> 4. What proportion of winners to losers do you have?
> 
> 5. What is your average winning trade and average losing trade size?
> 
> 6. What is your risk per trade?
> 
> 7. What is the opportunity factor of your system? ie. how often does your analysis provide you with a trade?
> 
> Since a method of analysis is not a trading system per se, and in the case of EW is often only relevant for the  ´setup ´ of a trading opportunity, I think it ´s important for people contemplating EW to get the  ´reality check ´of an applied system.


----------



## sammy84

I have to thank the likes of OZ wave guy and Tech/A. I used to think that EW was pretty much rubbish. However, looking back now I can see I only thought this way because I feared what I didn't know. After reading this thread on various occasions I went out and bought Nick Radge's book to see what it is all about. I now can see what a valuable tool EW is for any technical analyst and am in the process of learning more about EW so I can incorporate it in my trading strategy. So thanks guys on this thread for posting your analysis, it really helped me out.

Sammy

P.S- Can anyone recommend any good books on EW after reading Nicks one?


----------



## Porper

sammy84 said:


> P.S- Can anyone recommend any good books on EW after reading Nicks one?




Hello Sammy,

Elliot Wave Principle by Frost & Pretcher is a good start, then a really good one for the slightly more advanced is Dynamic Trading by Robert Miner, this will teach you trading strategies as well as basic Elliot.


----------



## Sean K

OzWaveGuy said:


> *Wave (5) Possible Downside Targets*
> Assuming the Wave (4) did finish in early Jan, then:
> 
> 
> if wave (5) = (1), another 1160 points to go on the downside
> if wave (5) = 61.8% of (1) then another 500 points to go on the downside.



Do you use support and resistance to add support to these targets. For example, there's some decent support around the 27-2800 mark back in 98, 99, and 03. Since that lines up around the 61% target, would you think that's a higher probability target? Or, just wait and see how it responds to that?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

kennas said:


> Do you use support and resistance to add support to these targets. For example, there's some decent support around the 27-2800 mark back in 98, 99, and 03. Since that lines up around the 61% target, would you think that's a higher probability target? Or, just wait and see how it responds to that?




I'll usually draw up a range of fib targets based on wave 1 and 3 (eg 38.2 and 61.8%) and overlay them on the chart. Then see what obvious support lines/channels run close to these fib targets. One can then focus in on a couple of specific targets areas.

The 2700 target area is almost exactly 61.8% of wave (1), so at first glance this area would be a primary support region for a significant bounce that may take 6+ months or so to play out. 

As wave (3) down was the extended wave, then the odds are high that wave (5) down will not be longer than wave (3). Wave (5) should have some form of a fib relationship with wave (1) or (3) - a 61.8% relationship is a good place to start (and seems to occur often on the XAO)

Once the smaller wave 3 of (5) down finishes then the above target can be refined a little based on the fib relationships within these smaller waves down.

A little long winded answer - but I thought others may find value in the logic used. I'll throw up a chart later this week with some ideas on the impending bounce.

For the EWers: You know what this means - 5 waves down on the XAO is a very significant move that will have extremely harsh consequences (and opportunities). One also needs to look into the future a little and try to understand what the social landscape will look like too (probably very different to what we are used to).


----------



## bullbear39

Would anyone like to offer an opinion on IPL from an EW perspective?
Being new to EW and not having software that automatically plots the waves I've attached my meagre attempt below. 

Main questions;
1. Is my (manually plotted) count right?
2. What affect does the gap have on the count, if any?
3. Assuming my wave 5 is right, what happens next? Would like to see someone elses view of the count as of today (04.04.09).

Thanks.


----------



## bullbear39

... er... 04.03.09


----------



## Rudy

bullbear39 said:


> Would anyone like to offer an opinion on IPL from an EW perspective?
> Being new to EW and not having software that automatically plots the waves I've attached my meagre attempt below.
> 
> Main questions;
> 1. Is my (manually plotted) count right?
> 2. What affect does the gap have on the count, if any?
> 3. Assuming my wave 5 is right, what happens next? Would like to see someone elses view of the count as of today (04.04.09).
> 
> Thanks.




Hi Bullbear,

I find that EW works better on indices, sectors and commodities than it does on stocks.  I have found very few stocks that lend itself to EW when strict EW rules are used.  

OWG is better qualified to comment on your count than I am but I suggest that you may be attempting to count impulse waves where none exist.  In your chart of IPL what you are seeing as impulse waves have their wave 4's intruding into the price range of their wave 1's which makes them illegal.  

I don't see IPL as a particularly good candidate for EW but it could be because of my bias about using EW on stocks that aren't large (and hence are represented by a wider spectrum of investors thus making it more likely that EW will work)  like BHP.

Cheers

Rudy


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> *XAO*
> 
> The XAO is moving downwards and unfolding in 5 waves. I can only assume that wave (5) is underway, but there is potential for further subdivisions to unfold as well that extend the bigger wave (3).
> 
> What is needed now is to work the individual waves downwards looking for wave alternation and fib relationships to determine the sub-divisions within wave 3 of (5).
> 
> Today's small leg up from the low could be considered another subdivision of wave 3 and labeled as a 'i' and 'ii'. Alternatively, wave (iii) could have ended today, that will see more downside before the bigger wave '4'  corrects upwards. However, if this was the case, there doesn't seem to be enough price movement between the start of wave '3' and the impending start of wave '4'. So for now we'll label today's action a completed 'i' and wave 'ii' still underway until further clarification is at hand.
> 
> There's still a remote chance that wave (4) is still underway and this downwards leg is wave 'B'. Mentioned some weeks ago - if a triangle does unfold for wave (4), then the 'B' leg may find a new low before wave 'C' up commences. If this is the case then the 'B' wave down will finish very soon. Drawing parallel trend lines thru this down leg and waiting for an initial 5 wave break upwards out of the channel would give a clue to more upside to support wave 'C'  of (4).
> 
> Cheers
> 
> OWG





Hi OWG,

Do you see today's likely action as possibly  an extension to your wave (iv) of the current wave 3 of wave (5)?


----------



## Nick Radge

> I have found very few stocks that lend itself to EW when strict EW rules are used.




I completely disagree. There are a myriad of stocks that lend themselves to EW, especially in isolation. The trick is not to force the count - its either there or it isn't. If it isn't you look elsewhere because there will be another somewhere.

Here is CSL as a prime example:



or QBE



or CEY



or CTX


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> I find that EW works better on indices, sectors and commodities than it does on stocks.




True, the 'volume' of human psychology at work does favor the EW analysis



> I have found very few stocks that lend itself to EW




As per Nick's comments - plenty out there



> when strict EW rules are used.




Not sure what this means. I'm assuming this means breaking the rules  
Either it's EW or it isn't and therefore this is suggesting one is prepared to 'guess' a lot more. If you really can't find patterns, there's plenty of other opps out there so move on to the next.

For IPL, it does contain EW patterns, but they are more complex. On a daily chart it isn't always obvious on what the counts look like and my software doesn't allow me to look at the hourly data too far in the past ( a real pain sometimes). I'll take a closer look later this week.

As for the recent XAO action, It can be counted that wave '3' down is finished (although shorter than wave '1'). So a wave '4' could unfold now but it needs to keep itself tight so it doesn't wander into the price range of wave '2' starting at 3300. If this is correct, then the downside target of 2700 will be unlikely.

The media will disagree with the above analysis as apparently the additional stimulus china is throwing at the GFC is causing 'rallies' around the world. I hope they can account for the final wave 5 down when that unfolds, and then the real rally when that starts soon - and I'm sure they will


----------



## Rudy

Nick Radge said:


> I completely disagree. There are a myriad of stocks that lend themselves to EW, especially in isolation. The trick is not to force the count - its either there or it isn't. If it isn't you look elsewhere because there will be another somewhere.




Hi Nick,

Thanks for your thoughts. It's heartening to know that it does work on some stocks.  I would be interested to see your count on IPL as it is not so obvious or do we assume that this is one stock where EW doesn't work?

Cheers

Rudy


----------



## Lachlan6

EW working just fine with IPL. Leading diagonal wave (1) followed by the plunge into the wave (3) on the 20th of Nov last year. A running flat shallow wave (4) and now the stock looks to be sub-dividing in the wave (5). The large gap should be resistance to any smaller degree wave ii push up within the larger wave (5), so bottom line the stock looks absolutely terrible and I would ´nt even think about touching it. Unfortunatley I cannot post a chart at the moment but will probably do so later.


----------



## Bobby

Nick Radge said:


> There are a myriad of stocks that lend themselves to EW, especially in isolation. The trick is not to force the count - its either there or it isn't. If it isn't you look elsewhere because there will be another somewhere.



 WHAT ? look some where else when its wrong , if thats how it works 
I bought your last book , found it ~ refreshing , will be buying your next when you complete the fallacy of  EW.


----------



## Porper

Bobby said:


> WHAT ? look some where else when its wrong , if thats how it works
> I bought your last book , found it ~ refreshing , will be buying your next when you complete the fallacy of  EW.




I gather you're not an E.Wave fan then Bobby ?

Nick Radge didn't say look somewhere else if you are wrong, he said if there is no wave count don't force it and look somewhere else.You have added the "wrong" part to highlight your views and emphasize your sarcasm.

As far as I am aware no trading method works on all stocks, Elliot is no different.

Which part of Adaptive Analysis didn't you understand ?


----------



## Nick Radge

Bobby,
You have misunderstood what I said. Theorists will attempt to place a count into every nook and cranny of any price movement. A realist, or trader for use of a better word, sticks with stocks that offer only a clear and indisputable count such as the one's I have highlighted. 

A correct count simply suggests there is a pattern that you understand, a pattern from which you are comfortable 'participating' in the market from and pattern that highlights when you are wrong so you can place a stop. Simple as that. We could switch Elliott Wave pattern for symmetrical triangle or Head & Shoulders. They all serve the same purpose. 

Elliott Wave is therefore no more of a fallacy than any other technical chart pattern or indicator. There is no 'divine' secret in it and I have never, ever, insinuated that there is some overpowering be all, end all secret to it.


----------



## tech/a

Bobby said:


> WHAT ? look some where else when its wrong , if thats how it works
> I bought your last book , found it ~ refreshing , will be buying your next when you complete the fallacy of  EW.




Its human nature to expect there to be clear cut right or wrong decision points. Red Light Short Green Light Long.
This market is clearly RED.
Taking a trading decision which is clearly RED on a stock within this market is the wisest decision.
Taking a Green light analysis decision in this market is clearly a trade which needs caution.
Taking a trade in which the analysis-- any analysis---is NOT clear is plain guessing.


You don't have to take any trade you cant apply a clear cut analytical strategy.
Doesn't make the analysis you use in appropriate---quite the opposite.
If the analysis can give on trades--any trades clear cut GREEN and RED lights then take them until proven or dis-proven.

The market is in continual motion,regardless of what analysis you use,today's GREEN light could well be RED tomorrow-- It could also be RED or GREEN for the duration of your trading time-frame.

That's Trading.
Its your application of analysis ANY analysis which will see you succeed or FAIL.

*NOT THE ANALYSIS.*


----------



## Cartman

Bobby said:


> WHAT ? look some where else when its wrong , if thats how it works




    ahh ---- looks like i might have a comrade around here ----  know how u feel Bob !!




Nick Radge said:


> Bobby,
> You have misunderstood what I said. Theorists will attempt to place a count into every nook and cranny of any price movement.




hence the lagging effect of E/W analysis imo ---- its simply way too slow unless the trader hones in on shorter time frames for entries/exits ---- and if thats the case, why not simply trade off momentum full stop ---- especially in the current climate ----- 

its not hard to get 10 or 15 short term cycles on a currency pair in a few hours ---- Poor old Ralph (may he rest in peace) would be still trying to work out whether it was the start of a wave one or the continuation of a wave five or whatever  (tongue in cheek!)




Nick Radge said:


> We could switch Elliott Wave pattern for symmetrical triangle or Head & Shoulders. They all serve the same purpose.




good idea --- they are both more useful to the average trader cause they also work in a condensed time frame


----------



## Bobby

Thanks,
Porper
Nick Radge
Tech
appreciated your feedback . 



  Hello Cartman


----------



## Cartman

Nick Radge said:


> Total rubbish. Here is my analysis of WOR from last night. _*Read*_ it carefully cartman, then tell me why it lags, why its any different to a momentum strategy and why it will not work in this environment.




lol ----- so u tell me what i say is *total rubbish* then i HAVE to *read* what u say --- haha -----   u werent a school teacher b4 u became a trader by any chance Nick?    --- 

i think u may have misconstrued the 'tone' of my post --- it wasnt directed a u at all --- i was just agreeing with Bob that E/W is a little 'un-specific' ---

re your WOR analysis ---- i did read it ---- and its fine if it works for u ----  personally i would not be shorting it at the moment even if it does drop cause ( and it prob will) -- the last cycle up had too much momentum behind it ---- 

the time to short it was  on the 2 Feb  at $14.00 ----- (2 day trade) ----- i dont trade long term and i dont do stocks, but i reckon youll see $16 + before u see $12 minus on WOR  ---- 

for a long term view (which i dont normally do) --- it looks like a possible long at around 13 bucks ----- but my view is subject to quick changes  ----- that is why E/W is not my cup of tea ---- 

for eg -- if u take yr short on WOR at $14.59 --- what if the hourly/daily momentum is bottoming out at the time! --- u could end down a few % if you take yr entry based on E/W alone -------- its fine to have a price point, but if the ducks dont line up why take it? ---- 

ps no disrespect intended Nick -- u r a long term trader with runs on the board ----- but some of us have to have contrary views, otherwise forum sites would be boring   Cheers.

PS Hi BOB ------ not sure i should have revisited this thread --- i often have trouble holding my tongue --- lol ---


----------



## Bobby

Cartman said:


> PS Hi BOB ------ not sure i should have revisited this thread --- i often have trouble holding my tongue --- lol ---




Gee join the club Cartman , I was a bit of a bullyboy  a couple of years back ,  guess I've mellowed some since  : 

Have Fun I do .


----------



## CanOz

Bobby said:


> Gee join the club Cartman , I was a bit of a bullyboy  a couple of years back ,  guess I've mellowed some since  :
> 
> Have Fun I do .




Have fun you might, but your not exactly putting up a great contradictive case Bobby. Your experience with EW it seems, was not the best. 

Was it the analysis or the application of the analysis in a trading plan that was flawed? Do i need to search the archives?


CanOz


----------



## Cartman

Bobby said:


> Gee join the club Cartman , I was a bit of a bullyboy  a couple of years back ,  guess I've mellowed some since  :
> 
> Have Fun I do .





haha ---- its all fun for me too Bob ---- sometimes people take me a bit too literally  ------


----------



## tech/a

Cartman said:


> haha ---- its all fun for me too Bob ---- sometimes people take me a bit too literally  ------




Better to remain silent and thought a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt!


----------



## OzWaveGuy

I certainly welcome constructive feedback and even better - when people indicate they are getting value from this thread and are capable of using EW in their trading plans (and many of you have indicated this by posting here or thru PMs), is really encouraging to see.

However, if your really not interested in EW, don't use it,  and don't intend to provide value to the EW folks that want to grow their skills here, then perhaps your posting time will be better spent elsewhere in the forum. 

There's only a few threads that provide analysis (sometimes deep) on some of the AU indexes and stocks and I suspect this specific thread is providing many a solid foundation on EW (correct me if I'm wrong anyone). Appreciate if this remains the focus of this thread - I know others have different trading systems and technical analysis or don't believe in EW altogether and I accept that completely. However, please accept that many folks here do believe in EW and use this thread constructively.


----------



## beamstas

tech/a said:


> Better to remain silent and thought a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt!




Oh come on tech/a, i wanna hear what he has to say!


----------



## beamstas

Cartman said:


> for eg -- if u take yr short on WOR at $14.59 --- what if the hourly/daily momentum is bottoming out at the time!




Cartman;

Trading isn't about picking the top or the bottom.
It's about finding low risk entries that have the potential to turn into big wins. 

If you could take a trade right now that you know would go against you for a few % and then turn into a 2R+ winner, would you take it?

Just my


----------



## Cartman

tech/a said:


> Better to remain silent and thought a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt!




so do u think *im* a fool Tech ??


----------



## Cartman

beamstas said:


> Cartman;
> 
> Trading isn't about picking the top or the bottom.




maybe not --- but picking close to it certainly helps the RR ---- depends on how good yr analysis is i guess 



beamstas said:


> Cartman;
> 
> If you could take a trade right now that you know would go against you for a few % and then turn into a 2R+ winner, would you take it?
> 
> Just my




how the hell do u know what its gona do !!! ----- if u trade as close to the bone as possible those few % will be the difference between being stopped out and picking up yr 2R (maybe more) winner ----- but what do i know --
maybe im just a fool --- lol ---


----------



## OzWaveGuy

*XAO*
It would appear that a wave '4' correction hasn't yet started to unfold. What's more the short term wave count appears to show flat corrections (shown) that have unfolded which implies a series of wave 2's (eg a lack of alternation between these smaller corrections is strongly suggestive of further subdivisions). This would strengthen the case that wave '3' down is subdividing and still has a ways to go, thus bringing in the 2700 target area squarely into sight.

Once wave '4' has commenced, then the final target range should be much easier to identify, before a multi-month bounce commences (or alternatively, a chance that further sub-divisions downwards will unfold).

Cheers 

OWG


----------



## Cartman

OzWaveGuy said:


> I certainly welcome constructive feedback and even better - when people indicate they are getting value from this thread and are capable of using EW in their trading plans (and many of you have indicated this by posting here or thru PMs), is really encouraging to see.
> 
> However, if your really not interested in EW, don't use it,  and don't intend to provide value to the EW folks that want to grow their skills here, then perhaps your posting time will be better spent elsewhere in the forum.
> 
> There's only a few threads that provide analysis (sometimes deep) on some of the AU indexes and stocks and I suspect this specific thread is providing many a solid foundation on EW (correct me if I'm wrong anyone). Appreciate if this remains the focus of this thread - I know others have different trading systems and technical analysis or don't believe in EW altogether and I accept that completely. However, please accept that many folks here do believe in EW and use this thread constructively.




 Oz, I respect yr opinion cause u back it up with content --- and u r also obviously a gentleman of fine character ---- if  the fact that i find E/W is lacking in some respects means that i should not grace this thread with my contrarian opinions, so be it ------ but differing opinions are where learning begins ---------- i notice a lot of E/W's appear very dogmatic in their religion' ----   u r obviously an expert in the analysis which i appreciate ---- those who wish to ride on your coat tails and pretend knowledge are far more *foolish* than those like me who are happy to question the apparent anomalies in the analysis ----------- 

ps i knew i shouldnt have returned  (damn you Bob !!   )

pps lighten up guys ---- its only *one* form of analysis -----  geez --- if someone said thay didnt like a head and shoulders pattern as a prelude to a short trade would anyone get upset ??


----------



## Lachlan6

Lachlan6 said:


> EW working just fine with IPL. Leading diagonal wave (1) followed by the plunge into the wave (3) on the 20th of Nov last year. A running flat shallow wave (4) and now the stock looks to be sub-dividing in the wave (5). The large gap should be resistance to any smaller degree wave ii push up within the larger wave (5), so bottom line the stock looks absolutely terrible and I would ´nt even think about touching it. Unfortunatley I cannot post a chart at the moment but will probably do so later.




Here is the chart I was meaning to post.


----------



## beamstas

Cartman said:


> what if the hourly/daily momentum is bottoming out at the time! --- u could end down a few % if you take yr entry based on E/W alone






Cartman said:


> how the hell do u know what its gona do !!!


----------



## Bobby

CanOz said:


> Have fun you might, but your not exactly putting up a great contradictive case Bobby. Your experience with EW it seems, was not the best.
> 
> Was it the analysis or the application of the analysis in a trading plan that was flawed? Do i need to search the archives?
> 
> 
> CanOz




CanOz , in the past I spent a lot of time on it  & found no advantage .
Nicks reply to me was clear & gracious so I'm going to respect those who find it useful.


----------



## Cartman

beamstas said:


>




gidday Beamer boy --- we have a live one here --- time to go fishing !!


my point --- 'how the hell do u know what its gona do from *your E/W* analysis?

your answer --- 


 ---- I trade 1 second/1 minute chart formations ---- reading 1 hour/1 day momentum is like trading in *slow motion 
*  ----- if you cant pick the bottom of momentum in a 1 hour chart --- stop trading !!! ---  Roll yr eyes again Beamer --- that was a very clever response ---- yr obviously very intelligent! ----- and im the foolish one around here apparently ---  (my turn)


----------



## Bobby

Cartman said:


> ps i knew i shouldnt have returned  (damn you Bob !!   )
> 
> pps lighten up guys ---- its only *one* form of analysis -----  geez --- if someone said thay didnt like a head and shoulders pattern as a prelude to a short trade would anyone get upset ??




WHoops " I'll take the blame then


----------



## Cartman

Bobby said:


> WHoops " I'll take the blame then




Haha  ----- tell ya what Bob  ---- i'll share it with you --- thats the kinda guy i am -----

nah --- hang on i'll take all the blame ---- im a selfish bast@rd ---- yr off the hook.


----------



## Porper

OzWaveGuy said:


> *XAO*
> This would strengthen the case that wave '3' down is subdividing and still has a ways to go, thus bringing in the 2700 target area squarely into sight.





Ozwave, looking at your chart once all the lower degree waves sort themselves out surely you are looking at more like 2000 as a target ? Not that I am saying that is unrealistic, we are in uncertain times and anything is possible.

When the count gets messy I tend to go to a higher time frame, so here is a very simple monthly chart of the S&P 500.This is an obvious expanded flat pattern which has a way to go yet (time wise).However we are very near a low point I think, with a year, maybe 18 months bounce before the next and final push lower.

A few years yet to the bull market, but big profits to be had in the bounce.

If my wave B is an impulse and is a wave 5 then we will get the same price action as from 99, or if a zig zag............well, we don't have enough numbers left to fall that far  and we all live in tents and grow potatoes to survive.


----------



## CanOz

Porper said:


> all live in tents and grow potatoes to survive.





One question i have, if we give less weight to patterns on indexes over several years, do we also give less weight to EW counts over many many years as well?

I can supply the potatoes.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> One question i have, if we give less weight to patterns on indexes over several years, do we also give less weight to EW counts over many many years as well?
> 
> I can supply the potatoes.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Waves do alter in all degrees overtime.
Again the beauty of the methodology.


----------



## Porper

CanOz said:


> One question i have, if we give less weight to patterns on indexes over several years, do we also give less weight to EW counts over many many years as well?
> 
> I can supply the potatoes.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Do we give less weight to long term patterns or indexes ? I know some Elliot analysts suggest this and say the best patterns are in futures, forex etc, and maybe they are correct.

If a long term chart conflicts with the short term, then yes, emphasis should be on the short, but say we have 3 time frames as in the S&P 500 at the moment and they all concur, surely this makes the short term pattern a higher probability, as does it the long term. 

As a side note we are in the price and time range now for the termination of wave 5 of 3 so we should get a bounce into wave A of 4 which should last a few months.Very tradeable.

I'll let you know about the potatoes when armageddon starts


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Porper said:


> Ozwave, looking at your chart once all the lower degree waves sort themselves out surely you are looking at more like 2000 as a target ? Not that I am saying that is unrealistic, we are in uncertain times and anything is possible.be had in the bounce.




I'm looking only at the Fib relationships at the moment, and using 61.8% of wave (1) that started in late 2007. 61.8% tends to appear a fair bit in the XAO as far as wave relationships go. This brings 2700 as primary target area. Now, there's nothing to say that this final wave down could relate to wave (1) or (3) by other fib ratios. 100%, 138% and even 161% could see the XAO get a lot messier and bring 2000 into sight. 

At the moment, there's a lack of evidence to support deeper downside targets, until the wave counts unfold a little more. If we start to see some wave 4's that correct these smaller wave 3's, then an estimation can be drawn up use fib ratios.

As far as the S&P500 goes, the expanded flat correction you've shown certianly is a valid outcome - assuming it is a expanded flat correction. I have another interpretation that sees a lot more downside yet to go. Additionally, if the XAO is nearing a completed 5 waves down, then another 5 down needs to occur. This would lead me to believe that the DJI and SPX will also need to fall further (depending on count interpretations of course - mine is: we need to correct back down to the 1987 or even 1975 levels which are both previous wave 4s).

Nonetheless, there are massive changes that are occurring in the financial markets today and huge changes coming to your door in the near future. Potatoes can always be a backup strategy if need be


----------



## OzWaveGuy

CanOz said:


> One question i have, if we give less weight to patterns on indexes over several years, do we also give less weight to EW counts over many many years as well?
> 
> I can supply the potatoes.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




It's a fair question. Under EW - it won't matter if your looking for patterns on a 5min chart or an yearly chart, waves will occur at all time scales. Consider this: If you saw a clear 5 waves up (eg a perfect EW impulse wave) on a yearly chart that spanned 35 years and wave 4 was a triangle - what would you do or believe was going to happen?

Now consider the same 5 wave pattern on an hourly chart, again a triangle  for wave 4 - the perfect EW impulse pattern. You could trade the correction down to wave 4 (as a rough guide). No different to the yearly example. All tradable base on your trading timeframe, the counts all hold true.

EW has other uses when we start talking about much longer term timeframes. The difficulty with the longer term (eg 40+ years) is that the data isn't always available much past 100 years ago, so this may make wave counts on the 100 year chart a little speculative. Although some folks like prechter have done some analysis on this front.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

This is the chart I've been using for the longer term view (and I've posted a similar version before). The longer term wave counts are speculation, and I'm mainly looking for wave alternation to locate corrective waves of the same degree.

Assuming the wave counts are accurate prior to 1975, the extreme bearish case becomes very realistic and would see the XAO drive though the 100 year trend line to end up near a previous wave 4 (super-cycle degree) in 1975. The house of cards would truly need to collapse to wipe out that last 40 years of progress on the indexes.

However, the bull leg since 1975 is very telling, 5 waves up, triangle for wave 4 - hence the 1987 target area is realistic now, considering the XAO today, is about to finish 5 waves down. The question now becomes: *Will * the XAO stop at 1500?

No amount of intervention (the Bailout rally) will stop the slide to lower levels, in the best case it may prolong the upcoming bounce.


----------



## beamstas

Cartman said:


> gidday Beamer boy --- we have a live one here --- time to go fishing !!
> 
> 
> my point --- 'how the hell do u know what its gona do from your E/W analysis?
> 
> your answer ---
> 
> 
> ---- I trade 1 second/1 minute chart formations ---- reading 1 hour/1 day momentum is like trading in slow motion
> ----- if you cant pick the bottom of momentum in a 1 hour chart --- stop trading !!! --- Roll yr eyes again Beamer --- that was a very clever response ---- yr obviously very intelligent! ----- and im the foolish one around here apparently ---  (my turn)




Come on now cartman, you can't say "what if the market is at a low and then rises up putting you behind" and then the next statement you say to someone "how do you know what the market is going to do??"

Im guessing you trade with 100% accuracy?

If you are going to oppose EW on an EW thread, at least make sure what you are saying doesn't contradict itself!


----------



## Porper

OzWaveGuy said:


> Assuming the wave counts are accurate prior to 1975, the extreme bearish case becomes very realistic and would see the XAO drive though the 100 year trend line to end up near a previous wave 4 (super-cycle degree) in 1975. The house of cards would truly need to collapse to wipe out that last 40 years of progress on the indexes.





1500 is bearish enough, the world will be a desperate place for a lot of people if we get to those numbers.

The next stop at 300 just wont happen, nowhere near.There would be no financial stability worldwide and certainly no stock market if we got anywhere near that.Money would have no value, soup kitchens, crime out of control, you get the picture.

In my opinion this is where Elliot Wave definitely doesn't work.The theory is fine but when you get to super cycle it is virtually impossible to retrace the required amount realistically.And how much has the world changed in the past 150 odd years ?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Porper said:


> 1500 is bearish enough, the world will be a desperate place for a lot of people if we get to those numbers.
> 
> The next stop at 300 just wont happen, nowhere near.There would be no financial stability worldwide and certainly no stock market if we got anywhere near that.Money would have no value, soup kitchens, crime out of control, you get the picture.
> 
> In my opinion this is where Elliot Wave definitely doesn't work.The theory is fine but when you get to super cycle it is virtually impossible to retrace the required amount realistically.And how much has the world changed in the past 150 odd years ?




I doubt the folks who lived thru the 1929 crisis would agree some of the above statements considering various indexes at the time lost around 90% and took 25 years to recover back to the highs, soup kitchens and bread lines were the norm and plenty of instability in all areas of the world economies. In Australia, the unemployment rate was 32%.

If EW doesn't work at longer time scales, where do you draw the line? For wave counts and human psychology to suddenly become invalid is a little difficult to comprehend. Human progress (and contraction) is what EW is measuring, it simply doesn't stop because a different time frame above a certain threshold (whatever that may be) is used.

Looking at evidence at hand, nothing is off the table. As I indicated, returning back to the 75' levels is an extreme case - but it's still on the table, whether folks like it or not.


----------



## Porper

OzWaveGuy said:


> If EW doesn't work at longer time scales, where do you draw the line? For wave counts and human psychology to suddenly become invalid is a little difficult to comprehend. Human progress (and contraction) is what EW is measuring, it simply doesn't stop because a different time frame above a certain threshold (whatever that may be) is used.




I posted a monthly chart so I certainly think it works on longer time frames.All I am saying is that if you put fib retracements on a grand supercycle chart it becomes unrealistic to get down to those numbers again.As to where you draw the line, good question, I suppose that is subjective.

Also, if we are talking Grand supercycle retracements it certainly wouldn't end in our lifetime.

Yes a 90% drop in the depression, but to get to 300 the Aussie market would need to drop more than 95%, I am saying it wouldn't happen because of the dynamics of the world financial structure.It would be Armageddon before that happened.The soup kitchens would be needed way before 300.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Porper said:


> I am saying it wouldn't happen because of the dynamics of the world financial structure.




Dynamics? What would that be exactly  $8.5 trillion of dynamic 'stimulus' to date in the US has failed to halt the slide, short selling bans, closing the stock markets will do nothing. The last time I looked at the 'financial structure' (whatever that is) the 'experts' were:

taking the financial watchdogs/sheriffs out of the home loan industry in the US so it became the 'wild west' 
 making bad loans and bypassing risk management processes
pushing toxic debt around to anyone who would buy it
....take your pick....
By squeezing the last drops from the credit syringe into the patient, at some point the overdoses are going to kill the patient. Injecting more credit via the bailouts will simply make the fall harder by increasing negative social mood (esp when the people find out about the misuse of this significant funding, Pacific Brands, AIG etc)

Negative Social mood is determining how deep this 'crisis' goes - and EW logical suggests the retracement needs to hit a previous wave 4 (as a guide). So I re-submit to you - It will hit a previous wave 4, either 1987, or 1975 and there's nothing anyone can do about it (as we've clearly seen so far).

CNN did a poll a few months back, and asked what will resolve the financial crisis. The majority selected 'time' and did not believe lower interest rates or anything else would address the situation. I 100% agree with the majority - it will take 'time' to turn social mood from negative to positive.

We can continue this conversation when the market is around 1500. At that point in time, there should be evidence to indicate where the market will go from there - hopefully the news will be at it's worst and everyone is massively bearish, this will be a signal that the bottom is at hand - the patient will be in recovery and opportunities will present themselves to those that see thru the gloominess.


----------



## drsmith

OzWaveGuy said:


> This is the chart I've been using for the longer term view (and I've posted a similar version before). The longer term wave counts are speculation, and I'm mainly looking for wave alternation to locate corrective waves of the same degree.
> 
> Assuming the wave counts are accurate prior to 1975, the extreme bearish case becomes very realistic and would see the XAO drive though the 100 year trend line to end up near a previous wave 4 (super-cycle degree) in 1975. The house of cards would truly need to collapse to wipe out that last 40 years of progress on the indexes.
> 
> However, the bull leg since 1975 is very telling, 5 waves up, triangle for wave 4 - hence the 1987 target area is realistic now, considering the XAO today, is about to finish 5 waves down. The question now becomes: *Will * the XAO stop at 1500?
> 
> No amount of intervention (the Bailout rally) will stop the slide to lower levels, in the best case it may prolong the upcoming bounce.



What I find most interesting about that graph is the 100 year trend line.

In a broad sence could this be said to be proportional to the growth in human productivity and if so is it valid to assume the growth rate to be constant ?

Since civilisation began it's overall advancement there have been periods of accelerated growth and setbacks over periods of hundreds of years. As an example take the technological advancements of the Greeks and Romans followed by the stagnation of the dark ages. 

A more recent example could be increased technological advancement as a result of competition between the USA and the former USSR during the cold war and also advancements in computer technology. This obviously does not eliminate the credit bubble but it may have increased the underlying growth rate of human productivity in recent decades when compared to earlier decades of the 20'th century.


----------



## Porper

OzWaveGuy said:


> We can continue this conversation when the market is around 1500.




Well being an Elliot Analyst Oz it is probably not a good idea to talk fundamentals, I freely admit to knowing almost Zilch about the topic.As you know the fundamentals have nothing to do with Elliot wave. As you rightly stated, it measures crowd behaviour or as you put it social mood.

I am not as sure as you that we will reach 1500, infact at this point in time I disagree, of course as price and waves progress this can change.All this talk of the long term view  has absolutely nothing to do with trading or investment decisions unless you hold a very long term view.

We'll agree to disagree and see what patterns transpire.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Speaking of human progress, I find this graph interesting from ---> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ParadigmShiftsFrr15Events.svg

Showing smooth acceleration of major paradigm shifts throughout history. Not sure I can find any EW wave within this  but it gives thought to some of the recent discussion on progression of the human race and what it may look like from different points of view.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Porper said:


> Well being an Elliot Analyst Oz it is probably not a good idea to talk fundamentals




I'd like to explore this comment a little further as you've hit some key points here that others may benfit from.

Yes, you're right - fundamentals don't play a part in the EW analysis. However, let's reverse the equation a little. Has anyone thought about what fundamentals will appear as the markets plays out to the downside? Let's assume for arguments sake the market gets down to 1500 - what will the fundamentals look like? eg: Will it be safe for my family? Will I have a reliable income?, will I still be able to day trade or will there be severe trading restrictions? What derivatives will be available for me? Will CFDs still exist? 

The point of the above is to highlight that whilst very few will trade very long term on EW, the value of EW over much longer time frames is to gain an understanding of what the fundamentals will look like in the future. Robert Prechter has published a book that covers this - conquer the crash. I haven't read it, but it covers mass bank failures (surprise surprise), personal safety, a shake up of the Financial industry, much more regulation etc. 

Let me end this very long Saturday (for me) by saying: Whilst EW can be used as part of a trading plan, longer term it has it's uses too by helping the analyst to understand what lies ahead on fundamental and social level.

Good discussion Porper. Cheers OWG, over and out.


----------



## drsmith

Interesting that it shows a linear trend over the very long term but is there available a similar logarithmic plot of global share market/human productivity growth on a scale of hundreds of years as that may provide a better insight on any future bottom on a global scale than the Australian market graphic over the past 100 years or so.

A fall from over 6000 to 300 (over 95%) if replicated on a global scale could possibly represent the greatest setback in human civilisation since the fall of the Roman Empire.


----------



## Cartman

beamstas said:


> Come on now cartman, you can't say "what if the market is at a low and then rises up putting you behind" and then the next statement you say to someone "how do you know what the market is going to do??"
> 
> Im guessing you trade with 100% accuracy?
> 
> If you are going to oppose EW on an EW thread, at least make sure what you are saying doesn't contradict itself!




Beamer --- lets not get into a squabble over undefinable linguistic anomalies ---   AND ----  i didnt contradict myself at all ---- u just didnt understand what i said ----- as many dont around here ----   geez, at least i dont do a Nick Radge and tell u to *READ* what ive written ---- no offence Nick, but that was pretty egotistical --

u originally stated --- what if i knew xyz was gona go up after it dropped X% --- would i take the trade ------ if i knew it  was gona go up id put the goddamn house on it obviously !!  ------ (but not till after it dropped those *few %*  

my point ---- how do u know if its gona go up (with yr E/W anaylisis) was in reference to my other point ------  *WHY* take the trade *IF* the indication is that the stock (or whatever) is near the bottom of a short term cycle !! -------------    

ie.   why put yourself at a disadvantage in any trade based purely on a long range price point ---- (ie Nicks  short  on WOR at $14.59 from memory ), -- if the trade can be opened at a better price point, why take it just because the  E/W analysis says its 'close' to the mark  ----- my whole point was, trading the  Momentum cycle will give u a much better entry/exit  point 

ie  to maximise yr E/W analysis u need to shorten the entry/exit time criteria down to obtain the maximal advantage on the trade ! ---

funnily enuff, i dont disagree with E/W --- i trade on waves/patterns myself (just short ones) ---- i do find it interesting that E/W's would reject the idea of optimizing their entries and exits based on short term Momentum cycles ---- but hey -- who really cares ---- as Tech says --- Im probably just a fool ----  funny man that Tech 

ps i trade at between 70 and 75% accuracy ------- still working on improving that though


----------



## beamstas

Cartman said:


> Beamer --- lets not get into a squabble over undefinable linguistic anomalies ---   AND ----  i didnt contradict myself at all ---- u just didnt understand what i said ----- as many dont around here ----   geez, at least i dont do a Nick Radge and tell u to *READ* what ive written ---- no offence Nick, but that was pretty egotistical --
> 
> u originally stated --- what if i knew xyz was gona go up after it dropped X% --- would i take the trade ------ if i knew it  was gona go up id put the goddamn house on it obviously !!  ------ (but not till after it dropped those *few %*
> 
> my point ---- how do u know if its gona go up (with yr E/W anaylisis) was in reference to my other point ------  *WHY* take the trade *IF* the indication is that the stock (or whatever) is near the bottom of a short term cycle !! -------------
> 
> ie.   why put yourself at a disadvantage in any trade based purely on a long range price point ---- (ie Nicks  short  on WOR at $14.59 from memory ), -- if the trade can be opened at a better price point, why take it just because the  E/W analysis says its 'close' to the mark  ----- my whole point was, trading the  Momentum cycle will give u a much better entry/exit  point
> 
> ie  to maximise yr E/W analysis u need to shorten the entry/exit time criteria down to obtain the maximal advantage on the trade ! ---
> 
> funnily enuff, i dont disagree with E/W --- i trade on waves/patterns myself (just short ones) ---- i do find it interesting that E/W's would reject the idea of optimizing their entries and exits based on short term Momentum cycles ---- but hey -- who really cares ---- as Tech says --- Im probably just a fool ----  funny man that Tech
> 
> ps i trade at between 70 and 75% accuracy ------- still working on improving that though




Come on mate, no squabble from me here!

There is no such thing as taking a trade because it is "close to the mark"
Using technical analysis to trade on EW, it has either hit the mark or it hasn't. 

Almost any trade can be opened at your "better point". Not everyone can buy at the all time low and sell at the all time high 

What im saying is, it isn't about picking the bottom, no matter if it's the all time bottom or the daily bottom. The idea is to follow the trend! I can see what you mean about trying to jig your entry to gain maximal advantage, but when you say that all im hearing is the bloke down the steet who is buying RIO because they "have" to be at the bottom now and they'll definitly go up! 

Obviously nick has chosen $14.59 for his entry point for a reason.

Best of luck with your trading cartman.

Brad


----------



## motorway

OzWaveGuy said:


> Speaking of human progress, I find this graph interesting from ---> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ParadigmShiftsFrr15Events.svg
> 
> Showing smooth acceleration of major paradigm shifts throughout history. Not sure I can find any EW wave within this  but it gives thought to some of the recent discussion on progression of the human race and what it may look like from different points of view.




I Note The Name Theordore Modis on that chart..

There is some connection to EW
and cartman's momentum Cycles

eg a pure  S curve occurs when the population is  unreflexive 

The curves of things like stock markets are  distorted both by overshoot and anticipation



note the bold type

A bear mkt is a  negative growth cycle..
Instead of a ceiling The population reaches a floor

An S curve could be broken up into 5 wave pattern

motorway




> Fundamental scientific concepts can shed new light in predicting the economic turnaround. Biological models that describe growth in competition invariably involve S-shaped patterns, the so-called S-curves.
> The population of rabbits multiplying in a fenced-off grass field grows exponentially in the beginning but later on slows down as the ecological niche is being filled to capacity. By the time the rabbits population reaches a ceiling (i.e. the maximum number of rabbits that can be sustained in the field) it will have traced out an S-shaped curve over time.
> Besides rabbits and other species, S-curves also dictate the growth patterns in inanimate populations such as products and markets.






> Natural growth in competition follows S-shaped patterns (S curves). The simplest mathematical function that produces an S curve is called a logistic and the *natural law behind it states that at any given time the rate of growth is proportional to both the amount of growth already accomplished and the amount of growth remaining to be accomplished.*
> 
> If either one of these quantities is small, the rate of growth will be small. This is the case at the beginning and at the end of the process. The rate is greatest in the middle, where both the growth accomplished and the growth remaining are sizable.






> *What is hidden under the graceful shape of the S curve is the fact that natural growth obeys a strict law which is seeded with knowledge of the final ceiling, the amount of growth remaining to be accomplished.
> 
> Therefore, accurate measurements of the growth process can be used to determine the law quantitatively, thus revealing the final size (the value of the ceiling) ahead of time. This is why the S curve approach possesses predictive power.*


----------



## Cartman

beamstas said:


> Come on mate, no squabble from me here!
> 
> Best of luck with your trading cartman.
> 
> Brad




ok truce its is with u Brad ---- u seem like a reasonable fella 


i confess to turning into an angry bast@rd when people accuse me of talking total rubbish ------ AND i get called a fool --- all in the one day :taz:

geez ---- i only talk *50%* rubbish and im just a *little* foolish --- 
but at least my ego is under control --- 

good luck to u too.


----------



## Cartman

Nick Radge said:


> Total rubbish. Here is my analysis of WOR from last night. _*Read*_ it carefully cartman, then tell me why it lags, why its any different to a momentum strategy and why it will not work in this environment.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *BOTTOM LINE
> 5/3*:
> EW Trend: Down
> Price Trend: Down
> Trend Strength: Weak
> Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY
> 
> *TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
> 5/3:*
> VIDEO ANALYSIS (3 mins 12 secs)
> *LAYMANS:* WOR has to date been rather resilient about moving lower as patterns dictate, but I feel its just a matter of time before the last push does eventuate. If so we'd anticipate a peek back below the November lows before the start of a large counter trend move, however there could be scope for trading this next move down because it is aligning us with the major market trend, but we'll discuss that below. Again we have a stock that is in some type of holding pattern, which to date could be deemed a symmetrical triangle. An Elliott Wave triangle will contain one more swing back and forth yet from a time symmetry perspective I'm not sure we'll see that unless its a short, sharp move (refer video). Today was not a positive outcome on a number of fronts. Firstly prices tried to break above the highs set last week, yet closed back down on their lows. This was accompanied by moderate volume that in turn points to possible selling interest. Lastly our divergence indicator doesn't offer any divergences but it does show that prices are at a very over bought level meaning a reversion is nearby. We shouldn't look at overbought/oversold indicators in isolation, but coupled with old resistance and volume attributes it does become a valuable confirmation tool.
> *TECHNICAL:* Activity since November has been a swag of 3-wave patterns all suggesting we're seeing a pause in the much larger degree trend and not a new advance higher. As such any immediate downside shift in momentum should be deemed the potential start of wave-5 and therefore new lows being seen. There does remain scope for this triangle to expand with a wave-d and -e yet to come, but even so the recent highs set last week should not be overcome. This becomes an important observation for our trading strategy that we'll discuss in a minute. As we're nearing the end of the immediate bear cycle we would anticipate that wave-5 lower here would just penetrate the November lows circa $10.60 by a small margin rather than driving aggressively lower. Of course anything in this climate can happen, but with all current information we'd expect the $9.00 to $10.00 zone just about terminating the pattern. That said we do not step up to the plate and start buying just because it hit the zone. We will need to see price and hopefully volume confirmation before contemplating bucking this trend.
> *TRADING STRATEGY
> 5/3:*
> The lowest risk strategy for a short term trader is capturing the expected swing lower by selling on a break of yesterdays low at $14.59. Place a protective stop above Fridays high of $15.95. even if we do see an Elliott Wave triangle form, that is one where some more sideways action will occur, we should still not expect to see Fridays highs penetrated. A triangle must always continue to coil with each successive wave inside the one prior. As such we can anchor the protective stop at a place that is deemed the safest under the circumstances. That risk also offers a reward of 3:1 should prices tag the major lows again. Yes we are looking for a push through those lows but we need to ensure the risk reward at major levels of support are favorable.
> 
> 
> 
> _This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._




ok --- (cooled down a little now) ---- ive actually looked at WOR  --

i dont totally disagree with the possible short on this stock --  just curious though Nick --- r u using E/W *exclusively* to analyze it,  cause simple trend lines will tell the average punter a quicker story ---

i still dont think its an immediate short even if yr price point is broken---

Why?  --- In laymans terms ---- it needs to break down thru the initial TL (*A*) 

it needs to  prove that break by failing the retest of (*A*) to the upside AND respecting the TL (*C*)  to the downside ---- taking the trade at the top of a momentum cycle would make it very low risk ---

your stop of $15.95 is a bit wide for my liking ----- if the above pans out the (*C*) TL + a few cents would become the stop line --- similar to your trade but the retest is important i think.


----------



## tech/a

Radge has traded on the SFE floor and  CBOT,written a number of books,managed a fund,currently live trades 4 methods in profit and public view right through this period where the larger majority have and are failing.

Has run many seminars (And hates doing them), Has taught more people to trade profitably than you've had hot breakfasts and has been trading before you could count.

Why don't you take a step back and see what you can learn from this wealth of experience rather than attempt to deface it!

*I'm all in favor of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with typewriters. *


----------



## biggles

yes but Radge can be wrong just like all of us and if I remember correctly he says he only has a success rate of 40%. Even so he can make money with money management and risk/reward ratio which seem to be the secret with trading. Not that you are right every time


----------



## Cartman

tech/a said:


> Radge has traded on the SFE floor and  CBOT,written a number of books,managed a fund,currently live trades 4 methods in profit and public view right through this period where the larger majority have and are failing.
> 
> Has run many seminars (And hates doing them), Has taught more people to trade profitably than you've had hot breakfasts and has been trading before you could count.
> 
> Why don't you take a step back and see what you can learn from this wealth of experience rather than attempt to deface it!
> 
> *I'm all in favor of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with typewriters. *




haha ---- i think Nick Radge is big enuff and ugly enuff to speak for himself Tech ---- 



tech/a said:


> Has taught more people to trade profitably than you've had hot breakfasts and has been trading before you could count.




wrong on both counts there old boy.  im not the young wipper snapper u think i am -



tech/a said:


> Why don't you take a step back and see what you can learn from this wealth of experience rather than attempt to *deface it!
> *
> [ [/B]




give me an example of how i am trying to deface his experience ?? --- 

oh thats right --- anyone who disagrees with what Tech thinks  just has to be wrong dont they  ---  

if u actually took the time to look at what i wrote above u'd see that the trade i projected was pretty much the same as what Nick proposed --- only with an added retest for clarity --------- that meant that the trade may end up being taken at a slightly lower price point, but would have less apparent risk due to the added confirmation *plus* it could be taken with a tighter stop ---- 

if that is defacing Nicks experience, then i stand guilty as charged ---

just out of curiousity ----- give us YOUR analysis of the WOR chart Tech ---- I am now genuinely interested in YOUR opinion of how YOU would play it.


----------



## Frank D

*WOR:- Left chart Yearly and Quarterly, Right chart Monthly*


*Long term:- *Supported around the 2008 yearly lows @ 12.80

But there is a breakout of the 4th Quarter lows in 2008 @ $25.53 
which would normally push the market down into the Quarterly lows, and 
as far as the Yearly lows…

*The is called a breakout and extend pattern….*

*Medium term*:- Wor has bounced off the monthly lows and looks to
 be heading up towards $17.65, as it is rising up from the monthly 50%
 level in March

If WOR is going to go down lower, it needs to fail around 17.65  in March 
and then continue down from APRIL…..

Because we begin to notice the there can be a shift in timeframes in 
April where the 50% levels begin to move from above to below.

Because there isn’t any breakout of the Yearly lows, this could result in 
a move UP towards the Fair value on 2009.

*This is the same pattern that occur in BHP.*

Therefore the best set-up to short would be to see $17.65 hit and begin 
to reverse down in the last week of March and then continue down in
 April.

I’m not bullish on this stock simply because of the 4th Quarter breakout, but in the short-term
 it would need to begin to trade below the monthly 50% level and then you can probably relax a bit 
if holding shorts.

Otherwise I would think WOR needs to move slightly higher before it 
goes down, and if holding shorts I would probably think that any weakness would continue down 
from the following Month/Quarter


----------



## tech/a

> haha ---- i think Nick Radge is big enuff and ugly enuff to speak for himself Tech ----




That he is.

I have seen forum paticipants often lose excellent posters with needless knit picking--off topic.



> yes but Radge can be wrong just like all of us and if I remember correctly he says he only has a success rate of 40%. Even so he can make money with money management and risk/reward ratio which seem to be the secret with trading. Not that you are right every time




Everyone has analysis which doesnt play out.
Must say Ive learnt much from following how the likes of Radge handle these situations.

Guys like Radge dont want to be drawn into a "whos analysis is right and who's wrong" there are countless ways to analyse WOR.
But this *IS ELLIOTT WAVE *analysis thread.
They are simply and freely bringing their experience to OUR table.
They dont have to.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Ho Hum


----------



## Cartman

OzWaveGuy said:


> Ho Hum





Oz is getting bored so ill have my say and leave   --- (sorry Oz --- i know this thread is kinda your baby --- i'll try and stay away for a while)




tech/a said:


> I have seen forum paticipants often lose excellent posters with needless *knit picking--off topic.*
> 
> *IS ELLIOTT WAVE *analysis thread.




Tech u keep reminding us that this is the E/W thread and the knit picking is annoying  ----- mmmm ---- lets analyze ---

My original statement was in fact a genuine statement/observation regarding *E/W* --- ie that *E/W* lags as an entry indicator

Nicks response --- “total rubbish” ---- not just rubbish but *total* rubbish (that is *maximum* rubbish folks --- ie nothing of worthwhile substance whatsoever --- just thought i'd make that 'totally' clear)--- 

he then asked for my opinion on how it lags (after he insulted me ) 

---- my response --- I asked a further question regarding timing the entry based on *E/W* IF the Momentum was not marrying up to proposed entry ------  (no reply from Nick yet)

so far my questions have been totally in respect of the *E/W* theme of the thread ----


Tech --- *YOUR* next post ------- 



tech/a said:


> Better to remain silent and thought a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt!




So Tech is annoyed by *knit picking and posts off topic* ------ we may well ask ---- *who* actually started both those problems this time Tech?

Tech follows up my  alternative analysis to Nicks E/W analysis (in which I also asked another question, regarding whether Nick explicitly used *E/W* on this particular trade idea or not) 

And Tech adds ------



tech/a said:


> *I'm all in favor of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with typewriters. *




(that was actually funny --- but i wont admit that!)


So what I am seeing here Tech is *ME* asking broad questions about *E/W* concepts ----  and *YOU* posting *knit picking* insulting comments which are totally *OFF TOPIC* ----  

And u’ve got the gall to call me a fool !! 

i also asked genuinely ----



Cartman said:


> give me an example of how i am trying to deface his experience ?? ---




your response ---- i am *knit picking*  

i rest my case ---- and humbly depart with my simplistic technical analysis of charts which is obviously not good enough or complex enough to be taken seriously  ------- (perhaps if i add a couple more indicators  and even more colours someone will like it --- lol ---- i'm outa here ---)

ps dont u smile Tech ---- u might hurt yr face


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Cartman, If you were an Elliott wave - You'd be classified as a bear market 3rd wave with several extensions within - It just doesn't give up 

I'm really hoping we can get back on topic sometime soon.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

*XAO*
Not sure what was up with the bourse datafeed today, a drop of 62 points occurred in a 5min window. I'm assuming it was a glitch - so i'm going to ignore the drop for the time being.

From the last post we discussed that wave '3' down may be sub-dividing (you might need to scroll back for a bit as there seems to have been an uncanny amount of discussion on this thread in the last few days - probably an indication of 'frustration' and hence an impending bounce).

There has been an intervening 3 wave move (that's been labeled), so either a double 3, double correction or triangle is unfolding. If it's a triangle then I would label it as a (iv) and therefore suggest an impending bounce into wave '4'. More time is needed for the very short term wave structure to unfold. Underlying trend is still down.


----------



## biggles

*Error sees $15 shares sold for 4c*

TRADES in QBE Insurance Group shares at $15 and below were cancelled on Monday, after the stock registered an aberrant price under one cent low in afternoon trading.
According to Iress data, some QBE shares traded at a low of 0.4 cents between 1426 AEDT and 1428 AEDT, amid overall quiet dealing in the stock market.

The Australian Securities Exchange announced first that the trades were under dispute and then that trades at $15 and below were "to be cancelled''.

At 1445 AEDT, QBE shares were registered at $15.60, down 70 cents.

Course of sales data showed a 500-share parcel of QBE stock was offered at 0.4 cents at 1426 AEDT.

Shares were being bid at $5.04 each a few second later.

Bids were then made at $9.99 and $10 and upward until 1429 AEDT when the stock was bid at $15.63.


----------



## Cartman

OzWaveGuy said:


> Cartman, If you were an Elliott wave - You'd be classified as a bear market 3rd wave with several extensions within - It just doesn't give up
> 
> I'm really hoping we can get back on topic sometime soon.





  Haha --- now that is seriously very funny Oz ----- as i've said b4 ---- u r obviously a true gentleman of fine character ---- u've put up with all my crap here and patiently waited till it finished ---- so i tip my hat to you --- and i do mean that 

i will do u the service of retiring from this thread and leave forthwith --- 

:walker:

i suspect some of my friends may also depart as well 

:walker::walker:


----------



## OzWaveGuy

biggles said:


> *Error sees $15 shares sold for 4c*




Thanks Biggles. Something didn't look right

You'd have to be worried if 0.4c was the current asking price.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Nick Radge said:


>




I'd suggest a flat is unfolding (3-3-5) and wave 'c' will be a 5 wave move upwards. Could still turn into a triangle over a longer period, but I suspect once the 5 up is done, a push to new lows as you've shown will most likely occur.

Looking at the bigger picture, I'd also suggest that that this wave 4 is at the same degree as the bigger wave 2 from Mar to May 08. Shouldn't impact ones trading in the short term however, as a push to new lows is expected with a corresponding corrective bounce shortly thereafter.

What this does say to me longer term is that 5 waves down would be visible on WOR, hence like the XAO another 5 waves down will need to occur at some point in the future.

Cheers OWG


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> *XAO*
> Not sure what was up with the bourse datafeed today, a drop of 62 points occurred in a 5min window. I'm assuming it was a glitch - so i'm going to ignore the drop for the time being.
> 
> From the last post we discussed that wave '3' down may be sub-dividing (you might need to scroll back for a bit as there seems to have been an uncanny amount of discussion on this thread in the last few days - probably an indication of 'frustration' and hence an impending bounce).
> 
> There has been an intervening 3 wave move (that's been labeled), so either a double 3, double correction or triangle is unfolding. If it's a triangle then I would label it as a (iv) and therefore suggest an impending bounce into wave '4'. More time is needed for the very short term wave structure to unfold. Underlying trend is still down.




Hi OWG,

Just looking at the leg down from the termination point of wave 2.  Any chance that we might be seeing something like the following playing out?  The dotted future lines are not drawn to scale.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> Just looking at the leg down from the termination point of wave 2.  Any chance that we might be seeing something like the following playing out?  The dotted future lines are not drawn to scale.




Rudy, Thought we'd lost you 

Sure it's possible that some form of sub-division is unfolding, I'm *really* supportive of a wave '4' bounce occurring real soon (eg after one more down leg) - too many indicators are pointing to an imminent short term bounce.

Your wave 'iv' circle is overlapping into wave 'ii' circle, you may want to re-adjust your labeling.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Rudy, Thought we'd lost you
> 
> Sure it's possible that some form of sub-division is unfolding, I'm *really* supportive of a wave '4' bounce occurring real soon (eg after one more down leg) - too many indicators are pointing to an imminent short term bounce.
> 
> Your wave 'iv' circle is overlapping into wave 'ii' circle, you may want to re-adjust your labeling.




Hi OWG,

No chance of you losing me.  I've still got too much to learn.   Keep up the great work.  I agree with you about the overlap but couldn't see a better fit when I produced it.  As a learning exercise for me, using your previously provided wave count would you please check to see if I have labeled  the sub waves of your wave (i) correctly?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> No chance of you losing me.  I've still got too much to learn.   Keep up the great work.  I agree with you about the overlap but couldn't see a better fit when I produced it.  As a learning exercise for me, using your previously provided wave count would you please check to see if I have labeled  the sub waves of your wave (i) correctly?




Looks reasonable to me Rudy. There are one or two other interpretations in the smaller waves counts, but at the end of the day what you have there is realistic based on the evidence at hand.

Also when I look at the 60min chart and add the MACD signal line, the MACD is in a extreme oversold position - which *usually* corresponds to the termination point of a wave 3 at this degree. 

For the EWers: this smaller 4th wave needs to play out (looking more like a triangle, or alternatively a double flat correction that may have finished today) and then one more small drop to new lows before the bigger wave '4' up, and then the final wave '5' down.

For the non-EWers: This might play out with a little more sideways action tomorrow, followed by drop to around 3000 (on the XAO), a correction back upto 3200 or so, followed by one last leg down to around 2700. This should usher in a multi-month bear market rally (and probably one more chance to sell before the next major leg of the bear market commences)


----------



## tech/a

Time for a turn
XAO spot on.--Simple analysis just as I like it.
Click to enlarge.
Looking now for a retracement to 3900 to 4400


----------



## OzWaveGuy

tech/a said:


> Time for a turn
> XAO spot on.--Simple analysis just as I like it.
> Click to enlarge.
> Looking now for a retracement to 3900 to 4400




tech, a query - the last leg from wave 4 to the low looks very much like a 3 wave move - do you have a chart with the details of this last leg?

Cheers OWG


----------



## tech/a

OzWaveGuy said:


> tech, a query - the last leg from wave 4 to the low looks very much like a 3 wave move - do you have a chart with the details of this last leg?
> 
> Cheers OWG




Not here but at home.
Will post it tonight.


----------



## Boggo

Another view perhaps ?

(click to enlarge)


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> Looks reasonable to me Rudy. There are one or two other interpretations in the smaller waves counts, but at the end of the day what you have there is realistic based on the evidence at hand.





Hi OWG,

Thanks for that.  Like you, I believe that we have now only entered into a wave 4 of wave (5) and that we still have a leg down to go.  Whether that leg down is an impulse that takes us down to around 2700 or a truncated wave 5 or even an ending diagonal remains to be seen.

On a completely different subject our readers may be interested in a casual observation I noticed on the relationship of waves 1 and 3 in a couple of examples.  When I noticed that the S&P500 had gone down to 667 the day before yesterday this level represented a range from the termination point of wave 1 that was almost equal to the range of wave 1 itself in the current wave (5) down move.





To me this was an indication that the wave had probably reached a termination point. As it turned out this was right on the money with the S&P500 going up over 6% last night.

I had noticed a similar thing occur on the XJO on it's waves (1) and (3).





I have noticed that this sort of thing occurs reasonably often so it's something worth while keeping an eye open for. Obviously the ranges weren't exactly equal but in the larger scheme of things they were close enough for me. 

Cheers


----------



## biggles

Does anyone know the rules about viewing  charts in Semilog. Chart counts can look quite different on daily charts, which i use. 
Is it ok to view on semilog if a charts count is not obvious. Is this misleading though


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Thanks for that.  Like you, I believe that we have now only entered into a wave 4 of wave (5) and that we still have a leg down to go.  Whether that leg down is an impulse that takes us down to around 2700 or a truncated wave 5 or even an ending diagonal remains to be seen.




Highly likely. We almost had a 5th wave failure Rudy!  for the completion of wave '3' down (amongst the 62 point drop that didn't happen). I'll throw up a chart later



> On a completely different subject our readers may be interested in a casual observation I noticed on the relationship of waves 1 and 3 in a couple of examples.  When I noticed that the S&P500 had gone down to 667 the day before yesterday this level represented a range from the termination point of wave 1 that was almost equal to the range of wave 1 itself in the current wave (5) down move.




Right on - These are classified as External Fibonacci relationships. So where you can't find a fib relationship between waves (eg Wave 1 = 61.8% of Wave 3), you can move outside the internal wave structures and find fib relationships externally on the whole wave setup like you've shown. Fib is very powerful, and very under utilized.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

biggles said:


> Does anyone know the rules about viewing  charts in Semilog. Chart counts can look quite different on daily charts, which i use.
> Is it ok to view on semilog if a charts count is not obvious. Is this misleading though




Some people only use Semi-log charts as they tend to be looking at more longer term and don't want to under estimate the relevance of waves at higher degrees.

However, I find switching to semi-log scale even when viewing the charts that go back to the market top back in 2007 can seriously change the fib relationships between the recent waves. So for that reason, I will stay in linear mode.

Longer term charts are best viewed using semi-log scale, otherwise a 30% move back in the 90's won't look like anything at all (v's a 30% move today).


----------



## Cartman

OzWaveGuy said:


> Right on - These are classified as *External Fibonacci relationships*. So where you can't find a fib relationship between waves (eg Wave 1 = 61.8% of Wave 3), you can move outside the internal wave structures and find fib relationships externally on the whole wave setup like you've shown. Fib is very powerful, and very under utilized.




Hey Oz ---- didn’t think id be back so soon  lol ---- dont be scared -- ill be behaved this time ---- 

I am actually a fan of fibs because I trade FX  and the auto bots have them pre-programmed to a tee more often than not, so even though I have no idea why they work, I  pay them a fair bit of attention ----

I don’t trade long term charts as u do for my own reasons but ----

On say a 5 min chart where I get a heavy consolidation area and then the trend resumes in the same direction, I give that area the same consideration that I would if the price had totally reversed ----- and as much importance as the previous high or low for the exercise of ‘predicting’ the possible price extension to the next level, and consequent RR ratio ---

Just curious --- in E/W analysis on say a daily chart, where u get the same condition (resumption of trend after consolidation),  do E/W’s ever consider labelling that area a ‘new wave’ so to speak?  ---- considering it is actually the completion of a sub cycle (wave) within a bigger cycle (wave), I would have thought it important to recognize it as such ----- I certainly do on a shorter time frame ---- 

Not knit picking here (hi Tech --- lol ) ----- genuinely interested on how an E/W er perceives and notes the importance of that scenario on a higher time frame than the ones i trade ---- 

cheers Oz ---- bet yr glad to have yr thread back !!


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Cartman said:


> Hey Oz ---- didn’t think id be back so soon  lol ---- dont be scared -- ill be behaved this time ----




Np Cartman - I'm sure you're really a good person (and quite funny sometimes)



> On say a 5 min chart where I get a heavy consolidation area and then the trend resumes in the same direction, I give that area the same consideration that I would if the price had totally reversed ----- and as much importance as the previous high or low for the exercise of ‘predicting’ the possible price extension to the next level, and consequent RR ratio ---
> 
> Just curious --- in E/W analysis on say a daily chart, where u get the same condition (resumption of trend after consolidation),  do E/W’s ever consider labelling that area a ‘new wave’ so to speak?  ---- considering it is actually the completion of a sub cycle (wave) within a bigger cycle (wave), I would have thought it important to recognize it as such ----- I certainly do on a shorter time frame ----




In the same way, EW sees consolidation as further sub-divisions of the current wave (or the commencement/ending of waves of higher or lower degrees - and probably what most people find difficult about EW analysis).

Fib is used to find and estimate relationships between waves running in the same direction (for turning points) as well as retracements. So these consolidation points are quite significant depending what timeframe you trade at.

I personally like to understand the bigger picture, not only for trades but to understand the social aspects as well. So the above is valid for the larger time frames as well.



> cheers Oz ---- bet yr glad to have yr thread back !!




lol, not my thread, I'm just surfin' here


----------



## OzWaveGuy

*XAO*
Wave 3 down has ended with a very small wave (v) that almost created a 5th wave failure. Not too surprising, as wave (i) was the extended wave, and wave (v) needed to be shorter than (iii) - wave 3's can never be the shortest wave.

The push up yesterday and the follow-thru today would be considered a single leg. From here we should see a small correction followed by one more push up to finish a zig-zag correction (3 waves) or continue sideways to complete a triangle.

*Next Steps*
Breaking beyond 3300 would invalidate this analysis as wave '4' cannot overlap into the price range of wave '2'. If a break beyond 3300 does occur I would be inclined to label the triangle (iv) scenario (in light green) as wave '4' instead - thus completing a very significant 5 waves down on the XAO. However this very small wave '4' triangle and thus a very small wave '5' seems too small compared with the bigger structure and the wave '2' flat, hence it's a very unlikely possibility. The good news is:  We'll know very soon.

*Target*
Ideally a wave '4' triangle should play out before heading down to 2800-2900 in the coming weeks.

Cheers

OWG.


----------



## Cartman

OzWaveGuy said:


> Np Cartman - I'm sure you're really a good person (and quite funny sometimes)





thank u Oz ---- somebodies gotta be the 'idiot' to make everyone else feel smart eh??  ----   (ps dont tell anyone, but i'm not really an idiot  lol )

i'll tell u one thing though --- i'm smart enuff to know that u (that would be You) ,  are a very clever man ----- and that is y people read this thread religiously ------ i admit i know crap all about E/W (well i actually do know a little ) -----  you my friend have an amazing knowledge of the methodology  ------- and for those that want to study the concepts, this thread (apart from my occasional interruptions haha )  is about as good as it gets ---- without actually paying for it !!!  -- so again, i tip my hat to u Oz.




OzWaveGuy said:


> In the same *EW sees consolidation* as further sub-divisions of the current wave (or the commencement/ending of waves of higher or lower degrees - and probably what *most people find difficult about EW* analysis).




i know u knew it ----- i see it without 'knowing' it ---- hopefully others now 'see' it 




OzWaveGuy said:


> So these *consolidation points are quite significant* depending what timeframe you trade at.




Absolutely !!



OzWaveGuy said:


> I personally like to understand the bigger picture, not only for trades but to understand the social aspects as well. So the above is valid for the larger time frames as well.




U obviously trade "Options" then ??




OzWaveGuy said:


> lol, not my thread, I'm just surfin' here




Nah ---- its yr thread --- dont be modest ----- (humility is perhaps the greatest human trait to go 'unrecognized and unrewarded'  --    --- keep up the good work --


----------



## OzWaveGuy

You're too kind Cartman. And yes Options are useful if you know where the trend is about to head.

On another topic, and something that was discussed a few days ago regarding long term EW counts, I went back to Prechters 'Elliott Wave Principle' and dug up an interesting chart of the DJI 1789 - 1977 at constant dollar value.

The chart is quite amazing as it displays very clear EW impulse and corrective patterns even  with constant dollar value. There are also other charts that go back to 950AD and cover the millennium waves that contain corrections that have lasted for hundreds of years. Hence, looking at the bigger picture, the recent bull market action of the last 35 years is like a leaf atop of a large oak tree (and the recent correction all but a light breeze)


----------



## tech/a

OZ the charts a Weekly so have given you both the weekly and Daily.

As you know AGET has algorithm wave counts so arent picture perfect.
I dont expect or need them to be in my trading.

The Weekly count (Major waves) look wrong and the lower timeframe count similar to Rudy's looks more symetrical. Ending wave 5 (3) This I prefer.Alternate count in BLUE.
Anyway trading it as a wave 4 until proven otherwise either way its bullish.


----------



## MR.

As an outsider it does appear one can manipulate or dismiss the waves as one sees fit!

Eliminating and wave theories, Techa  appears to me as being rather optimistic. When Ozwaveguy appearing pessimistic.  Porper dismissing waves over longer time frames because they doesn’t seem correct. Notice how your emotions  influence the Elliott wave data being processed, perhaps?

Get rid of the emotion and with all emotion cast aside what do the various Elliott waves project? 

A rebound has been expected.  As these pics indicate on the all-ords and the US S&P.  Or has the "expected" rebound already happened back in May 08? So now there's just the painfully slow to get to a bottom! As much as I want to believe Techa I would think there is too much pessimism and concern kicking about for a good rebound at this time.


----------



## tech/a

For me its not about being right or wrong.

Its about the analysis being correct until its proven to be incorrect.

I'll trade in the direction of the analysis,until analysis tells me that its either incorrect or has come to an end.

The analysis is on going and may well pan out to be as porper and others state.
While I have respect for all those who offer opinions---I prefer to trade my own analysis--right or wrong.

That way I dont have to start a class action to sue all those who post opinions here because they lost me money!!


----------



## Rudy

MR. said:


> As an outsider it does appear one can manipulate or dismiss the waves as one sees fit!
> 
> Eliminating and wave theories, Techa  appears to me as being rather optimistic. When Ozwaveguy appearing pessimistic.




Hi MR,

It's possible that you may not understand the process used in EW analysis.  The EW analyst attempts to determine the current pattern being revealed by the market.  There are times when the pattern being revealed is pretty obvious and other times (such as during a highly complex corrective wave pattern) that the pattern possibly can't be determined until the pattern is almost complete.

Quite often during the process there are a number of high probability outcomes for the pattern being revealed.  The EW process requires the analyst to keep these possible scenarios in mind and as more of the pattern is revealed one by one the number possible scenarios diminishes.  Quite often the number of scenarios reduces to one way before the pattern is completed and the EW analyst can use this information in determining whether a trade is high or low risk.

There is no doubt that there is a natural tendency for any analyst to project their own pessimistic or optimistic bias into an interpretation but that bias is quickly eliminated through the correct application of the process.  I don't think that OWG is being pessimistic at all.  He is just applying the EW process to the market action.

By the way, they were a great couple of charts you posted. 

Cheers


----------



## MR.

tech/a said:


> While I have respect for all those who offer opinions---I prefer to trade my own analysis--right or wrong.






Rudy said:


> There is no doubt that there is a natural tendency for any analyst to project their own pessimistic or optimistic bias into an interpretation but that bias is quickly eliminated through the correct application of the process.
> .....
> By the way, they were a great couple of charts you posted.
> 
> Cheers



Yes I also like both charts. Happy to post them here. I feel they do reflect along with the optimistic bias and (perhaps a change in the wind) towards Tech/a's trail of thought. Sorry they are not Elliott Wave's but that I will not pretend to understand.  



Rudy said:


> but that bias is quickly eliminated through the correct application of the process.




That's what I wanted to here, with thanks.    To the next set of charts......


----------



## OzWaveGuy

tech/a said:


> OZ the charts a Weekly so have given you both the weekly and Daily.
> 
> As you know AGET has algorithm wave counts so arent picture perfect.
> I dont expect or need them to be in my trading.
> 
> The Weekly count (Major waves) look wrong and the lower timeframe count similar to Rudy's looks more symetrical. Ending wave 5 (3) This I prefer.Alternate count in BLUE.
> Anyway trading it as a wave 4 until proven otherwise either way its bullish.




Fair enough tech/a.

You probably know my position on system generated wave counts


----------



## joeyr46

[
A rebound has been expected.  As these pics indicate on the all-ords and the US S&P.  Or has the "expected" rebound already happened back in May 08? So now there's just the painfully slow to get to a bottom! As much as I want to believe Techa I would think there is too much pessimism and concern kicking about for a good rebound at this time. 

That is exactly when a rebound has to occur according to EW that's why most of us miss it and buy at the top when were sure EW is the only tool I've come across that stops you doing that (or gets you out quickly if you do)
I think we'd all like a rebound and if the EW count is right mostb of us have got it very close to a fifth wave bottom or a small wave 4 and then the final bottom (not the whole bear market) for a rebound for a few months
I think our market is just finishing an A wave before going back into a B wave and then the C so we could get or appear to get quite bullish with a run in houses etc and then follow the rest of the world into a major depression.
Whereas US has had the A and the B wave and are just finishing wave 1 of C
That's why we are not as badly affected as US or UK IMO (yet). Our turn will come the piper must be paid.


----------



## tech/a

OzWaveGuy said:


> Fair enough tech/a.
> 
> You probably know my position on system generated wave counts




And I dont disagree with your view. Those which stick out are the ones which I look for I'm only interested in direction. The rest comes from other analysis.



joeyr46 said:


> [
> Techa I would think there is too much pessimism and concern kicking about for a good rebound at this time.




Frankly I dont know---Ive been around long enough to know that I dont know. (Whether the above statement is correct).



> That is exactly when a rebound has to occur according to EW that's why most of us miss it and buy at the top when were sure EW is the only tool I've come across that stops you doing that (or gets you out quickly if you do)
> I think we'd all like a rebound and if the EW count is right mostb of us have got it very close to a fifth wave bottom or a small wave 4 and then the final bottom (not the whole bear market) for a rebound for a few months
> I think our market is just finishing an A wave before going back into a B wave and then the C so we could get or appear to get quite bullish with a run in houses etc and then follow the rest of the world into a major depression.
> Whereas US has had the A and the B wave and are just finishing wave 1 of C
> That's why we are not as badly affected as US or UK IMO (yet). Our turn will come the piper must be paid.




There is more downside to come but until analysis points to that as a high probability---.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

As for the XAO today, not a lot of clarity in the short term wave counts. The action can be interpreted in a couple of equally valid ways, so the assumption should be to assume wave 4 is still underway (but could also be considered complete as a simple zig-zag, which would alternate well with wave 2 - a flat). 

The push down from the short term high today can be interpreted as a 3 wave move or potentially as a 5 wave move - so a little more clarification is required. The important issue is that 3300 cannot be broken (yet) until wave 5 completes as discussed here --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=407488&postcount=570

Also, as a side discussion and mentioned by MR. earlier about "too much pessimism" for a rebound and something I half joked about a few days back, before the recent bounce...



> you might need to scroll back for a bit as there seems to have been an uncanny amount of discussion on this thread in the last few days - probably an indication of 'frustration' and hence an impending bounce).




There is a lot of truth in this: You can usually tell when the bounce will occur, as people do become frustrated and it usually shows in the posts in this forum or in certain threads that contain an element of negativity in the title. The recent wave 4 bounce was no exception.

So don't forget, when pessimism is at it's worst - expect a significant low or bottom to be in place. As many of you should be well aware the opposite is also true - when optimism is at it's highest - as we saw in late 2007, then a top is at hand. Occasionally, I check the news for not what has happened, but indicators that suggest the opposite is about to occur, as sometimes when a topic finally gets to the front page or becomes popular - everyone is already in (eg the recent Gold reversal is an example). 

Cheers OWG


----------



## wavepicker

For those interested in Elliott Wave and Cycles Analysis, I am posting my take on the markets at this Juncture.

Please refer to Word document in cojunction with the charts and excel files attached both in this post and my next posts(s)


Regards

Wavepicker


----------



## wavepicker

These files should be used together with my last post


----------



## wavepicker

These files to be read together with my previous 2 posts on this thread


----------



## wavepicker

sorry, unable to post last chart on DJIA Cyclic Analysis due to size limitations.
Will try again in another post.

Cheers


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> *XAO*
> 
> *Next Steps*
> Breaking beyond 3300 would invalidate this analysis as wave '4' cannot overlap into the price range of wave '2'. If a break beyond 3300 does occur I would be inclined to label the triangle (iv) scenario (in light green) as wave '4' instead - thus completing a very significant 5 waves down on the XAO. However this very small wave '4' triangle and thus a very small wave '5' seems too small compared with the bigger structure and the wave '2' flat, hence it's a very unlikely possibility. The good news is:  We'll know very soon.
> 
> 
> OWG.




Hi OWG,

Well the XAO had an intraday high of 3002.1 today thus breaching the price range of wave 2.  I would just like to clarify your comment above.  Are you suggesting that your wave currently labeled 3 will in fact now be wave 5 and that waves 4 and 5 were very small??   They do appear to be out of proportion to the rest of the pattern.

This would also suggest that we have entered our multi-month rally at this stage which I have some doubts about.

Cheers


----------



## Frank D

*WOR Monthly*

I don't want to stick my head in this thread, but this is just a follow up to the WOR posting that was discussed.

$17.65 precise top on the March highs

If you think WOR is going to go down, then keep an eye on the 
April 50% level currently $15.55, as price needs to be trading below that to confirm any weakness in the 2nd Quarter.

Otherwise WOR is moving towards the 2nd stop @ $22.40


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi OWG,
> 
> Well the XAO had an intraday high of 3002.1 today thus breaching the price range of wave 2.  I would just like to clarify your comment above.  Are you suggesting that your wave currently labeled 3 will in fact now be wave 5 and that waves 4 and 5 were very small??   They do appear to be out of proportion to the rest of the pattern.
> 
> This would also suggest that we have entered our multi-month rally at this stage which I have some doubts about.
> 
> Cheers




It's a dilemma  So let's look at the evidence at hand:

The proposed wave 4 has penetrated into the price range of wave 2 - *not allowed*, so our plans for the XAO have been foiled and something else is going on :

I would count the recent push up as a completed 3 wave move with both legs almost being equal and this leg up has finished almost spot on the 50% retracement of the previous leg down. A reversal can happen very easily as 3300 is a solid resistance level also - a reasonable assumption at this point. I would allow upto a 61.8% retracement to occur, but any more than that and I would suggest another count is unfolding.

*So what are the options:*


A bigger wave (4) triangle playing out? Possibly, not enough evidence as yet and a solid break of 3300 is needed.
A bottom in place? No evidence whatsoever of that. As you point out trying to fit the smaller waves into the larger count is a very tough ask (what was I thinking yesterday).
An ending diagonal? I doubt it as the wave down from the wave (4) end point is a 5 wave move - not 3. Unless there's a very big ending diagonal occuring then I don't give much weight for this scenario
Another subdivision of the leg down? Highly likely, considering wave (1) lasted for a very long time (~94 days) and subdivided substantially more than this wave (5) down - this would be my preferred count as the evidence here outweighs the other options at the moment. This could also imply that the recent wave 2 isn't a flat but made up of two separate waves (but won't count it in yet)

Either way, a break down from the current levels now is really needed to confirm further sub-division to complete wave (5) down.

Additionally, should further subdivision downwards start to unfold, then this would imply a very bearish stance on the XAO. A break of the 2700 level may indeed occur, and perhaps a reason that wave (4) ended sooner than expected?

We should find out a lot more in the next few trading days.

Good luck.

Cheers  OWG.


----------



## Cartman

Cartman said:


> re your WOR analysis ---- i did read it ---- and its fine if it works for u ----  personally *i would not be shorting it at the moment* even if it does drop cause ( and it prob will) -- *the last cycle up had too much momentum *behind it ----
> 
> ----- i dont trade long term and i dont do stocks, but *i reckon youll see $16 + before u see $12 minus on WO*R  ----




Also not trying to look like a smart @rse ---- but i made those calls way b4 the mood of the market changed ---- 

as Tech points out  (and I agree with him)  --- its not about being right or wrong ---- but perhaps the 'simplistic' laymans view should be given more creedence than the esoteric longer term (and slightly lagging due to the prove/disprove necessity of  E/W) ----- 

again, no disrespect intended to E/W's ---- i think *the methodology is fine* --- I think that sometimes the *application* may need a little fine tuning for entries/exits ----- that was really the *only point* i  was trying to make (amongst all the crap i was carrying on with   lol)  



Frank D said:


> *WOR Monthly*
> 
> I don't want to stick my head in this thread, but this is just a follow up to the WOR posting that was discussed.
> 
> $17.65 precise top on the March highs
> 
> If you think WOR is going to go down, then keep an eye on the
> April 50% level currently $15.55, as price needs to be trading below that to confirm any weakness in the 2nd Quarter.
> 
> Otherwise WOR is moving towards the 2nd stop @ $22.40




Frank ---- much respect ---- and much more specific than my "general" view ---- nevertheless, a "general" confluence of opinion ----  

ps Nicks original "short" target was never hit so his analysis was fine ---- but, had the market had one more day of "iffiness" the target prob would have been hit and the trade would have ended a crapper ---

my point a few posts back about the 'confirmation' of the trade based on shorter time frame momentum was only to point out that *'secondary' confirmation* is much more important than the first apparent move,  or any initial 'gut feel' ------  

E/W is a fine tool --- but u dont use a chainsaw to build a kitchen bench !!


PS Sorry OZ -- i had no intention of being a pain ----- this in no way undermines yr analysis etc ---- just a minor point that i think the average punter needs to be aware of --- regardless of whether they utilize E/W or not ------

PPS --- i'll go away again now   lol -----


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Cartman said:


> E/W is a fine tool --- but u dont use a chainsaw to build a kitchen bench !!




No problems Cartman. Let me make a very simple point about EW - I'm not aware of any other methodology that one can use to analyze stocks and indexes at any time frame and use a set of predefined rules and pattern definitions consistently. It is for this reason that many choose to adopt EW (+fib) as a 'swiss army knife' in their toolbox.

I agree that some may not feel EW will help them as they are taking small amounts from a high volume of trades - fair enough, if the system works and is proven, then why change it. However, many folks will trade on longer time frames - so an understanding of the most *probable* direction will be an advantage.

Hopefully now that we have that out the way, we can continue to surf


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Frank D said:


> *WOR Monthly*
> 
> I don't want to stick my head in this thread, but this is just a follow up to the WOR posting that was discussed.
> 
> $17.65 precise top on the March highs
> 
> If you think WOR is going to go down, then keep an eye on the
> April 50% level currently $15.55, as price needs to be trading below that to confirm any weakness in the 2nd Quarter.
> 
> Otherwise WOR is moving towards the 2nd stop @ $22.40




No problems Frank, I think u and Nick have made solid calls here. From and EW standpoint, a flat has unfolded and the last leg (5 waves up) now appears to be finished. A resumption of the downward trend appears to be the next move (or possibly a more complex correction needs to unfold before the underlying trend resumes).


----------



## Cartman

OzWaveGuy said:


> No problems Cartman. Let me make a very simple point about EW - I'm not aware of any other methodology that one can use to analyze stocks and indexes at any time frame and use a set of predefined rules and pattern definitions consistently. It is for this reason that many choose to adopt EW (+fib) as a 'swiss army knife' in their toolbox.
> 
> I agree that some may not feel EW will help them as they are taking small amounts from a high volume of trades - fair enough, if the system works and is proven, then why change it. However, many folks will trade on longer time frames - so an understanding of the most *probable* direction will be an advantage.
> 
> Hopefully now that we have that out the way, we can continue to surf




no more arguments from me OZ  ----- i've probably annoyed enuff people on this thread by now, which was not my original intention ---- as i said, i respect yr knowledge and application of same ---- 

when its all said and done, *all* forms of analysis are adaptations of Momentum in my view -------- its really up to the individual to find what suits them best

please continue surfing


----------



## nunthewiser

NOT a post to intentiolly cause discomfort or reason for snotness

MY OPINION ONLY

no offense to EW users /preachers/swear by it people

PERSONALLY been following a few calls/Analysis re direction and timeframes i have noticed that longer term calls and directions seem to suit better


i trade using a number of wild and floozy methods and EW is not one ExCEPT when it comes to investment and longer timeframes

no offense intenedd but the EW methods / anylasis posted here has been merely a snapshot of what they may happen give or take 5 sceanrios  , which is great when dilly dathering al;l day but for us hopeless quick traders we count and punt the likeliest outcome with or without  a wave of aproval


----------



## nunthewiser

Please do not respond to my last post as "you dont understand EW.blah blha blah"

i understand what i see


----------



## tech/a

> I'm not aware of any other methodology that one can use to analyze stocks and indexes at any time frame and use a set of predefined rules and pattern definitions consistently.




Frank would disagree with his methodology.
Peter Steidlmayer probably would as well.(Market Profile)
Wyckoff would probably also be in the mix (Point and Figure).


----------



## wavepicker

tech/a said:


> Frank would disagree with his methodology.
> Peter Steidlmayer probably would as well.(Market Profile)
> Wyckoff would probably also be in the mix (Point and Figure).




Agreed tech,

EW is not the be all and end all of market studies. At times it offers opportunities if applied correctly that other methodoligies don't. But it also has flaws as do most other strategies do. That is why the likes of Glen Neely and others made up new additinal rules and guidelines and moved away somewhat from the traditional application.

Having used EW for over 10 years now I can say from personal experience that there are other methodolgies out there that are equivalent(and easier) to apply in terms of rules and guidelines. Used together with EW in the toolbox, can be a very powerfull combination.


----------



## tech/a

No arguement here.

Waves you still in the US?


----------



## wavepicker

No tech I am here in Oz.

Apart from what Nick has been kind enough to post, lately there has been little emphasis on this thread with regard to the application of EW in real trading setups, which is what most traders would like to see IMO.

Just to get the ball rolling again I will post my most recent trades based on EW in isolation. Hopefully a few of the others will do likewise so that we can perhaps share any possible opportunities as it's hard to look at everything.

I will start with financial stocks. Back in October of 2007, I posted a chart in response to garpal I think it was on ANZ. This chart of ANZ was very bearish back then(although most thought it was bullish being in a bull market for so many years). The consensus then was we don't short Financial stocks. I actually made a mistake back then because I thought we were at red 3 and a red wave 4 correction was about to be made. In hindsight it was actually red 5. Rfer post:-

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=215962&postcount=49

It didn't matter because ANZ got smashed shortly after making that post and it was my best short trade that year.

A few weeks ago I made another trade in ANZ. Looking at the weekly EW chart IMO this has completed an Ending Diagonal(one of my favourite patterns) anf IF correct has started a fast rally upside. We also have 2 other variables here that confirm this, weekly volume has been waning during the tracing out of the Ending Diagonal and this in itself is a confirmation of the Ending Diagonal. The other is that red waves a and c zigzag are equal in length(refer weekly chart)

After the count was complete at $11.83, I waited for confirmation(a higher low) with a stop under the low of $11.83. ANZ has been trending sideways the last few weeks and a break above the upper boundary of the sideways channel confirmed the move.


The other stock which I traded was CBA, another great setup. On the weekly chart we had a nice zigzag down from the alltime high @ $62.16. Red waves A and C are approximately equal in length. 
Moving to the daily chart we had a nice runup(dividend run?) from the lows which WAS impulsive. That was the confirmation and giveaway that red waves abc were complete. The move down from $31.40 has been corrective, a nice abc. Another clue, it finsished at 0.618 retracement of the impulse up. I went long this stock on the higher low as well as indicted of the chart at $27.30 with a stop @26.43


So once again 2 high probability trades offering great RR using Ew in isolation. 
Once again I say Ew is not the be all and end all of trading strategies, but at time sit does offer some good opportunities if applied correctly. This won't be apparent on every stock, but it will on some *The same can be said for any other methodology*

Cheers


----------



## tech/a

Have CBA from $27.97
SUN from $5.12

Elliott played a part as in where is the stock now.


----------



## Frank D

I’ve always said EW has too many important components that are missing 
as part of it’s Methodology:- Support/resistance & Time.

There has to be an introduction of different filtering techniques based 
on statistical probability that makes sense to the layman, so that 
support and resistance is clearly labeled, reversals of trends are known 
in advance, and understand where trends originate from and where they 
are going. 

Without TIME as part of the core methodology it becomes a Haphazard approach.

E-Wave doesn’t have a generic template,  therefore you end up with 
E-wavers with different counts and with different views, simply because 
one of the most important components is missing:- the TIME variable 
of shifting support and resistance.

But unless you have ‘time’ as part of the core model then the majority of 
EW will get the timing wrong and have to rely on standardized trading 
set-ups of ‘breakout’ patterns or other variables.

Wavepicker has demonstrated why he went long on banks using certain 
daily set-ups, that probably has less to do with EW than he makes out. It had to do with Volume and other minor patterns to make the decision.

But if you are going long on banks around the March lows on the 
Financials was the place to go, because statistically that’s the most 
robust level to go long from, as pointed out a couple of months ago.

And as seen with Index markets.

A generic template at least gives every trader using the same view 
and where to go long from and how long to hold the trade from and 
where to exit the trade.

*If holding banks you would look to partial exit or exit all around the April 50% level.*

If you think banks are going higher and this is the low, then Financials 
should continue above the April 50% level and continue towards 3600 on 
the Index.

If you think banks are going lower, then exit and move into the next
 BUY zones at lower statistical levels.

you don't need to label evey minor wave structure and then say
_" that was a nice confirmation and giveaway that read ABC 
were complete" _

*That's simply illusionary to the individual analyst and probably missed 
by most*


----------



## wavepicker

Frank D said:


> Wavepicker has demonstrated why he went long on banks using certain
> daily set-ups, that probably has less to do with EW than he makes out. It had to do with Volume and other minor patterns to make the decision.
> [/B]




Wrong.  RN Elliott used volume along with wave counts a s a confirming mechanism. Minor patterns/  Elliott wave analysis IS pattern Analysis



Frank D said:


> you don't need to label evey minor wave structure and then say
> _" that was a nice confirmation and giveaway that read ABC
> were complete" _
> [/B]




Your right, I didn't need to number minor waves- just did it for those interested in learning to count Elliott Waves




Frank D said:


> *That's simply illusionary to the individual analyst and probably missed
> by most*




Was it an illusion in October in 2007, when the AMT methodology was telling us to go long ANZ when Ew was saying it was a screaming short? Your gonna have to put up a better argument Frank


----------



## nomore4s

tech/a said:


> Have CBA from $27.97
> SUN from $5.12
> 
> Elliott played a part as in where is the stock now.




IMO the good trades will have some confluence between different methods of T/A.
I also am long a few banks around the same levels as Tech and WP without using EW - CBA @ $26.90, NAB @ $16.56 - refer my blog for entry dates etc.

ATM I using a mixture of more traditional wyckoff t/a and FrankDs method - still studying Franks method and how best to use it in my trading but I think I will eventually be using that as my major "tool". 
But as you can see I've ended up with very similar trades to both tech & WP using different methods. IMO it's about application not what particular method that is used - different people will be more comfortable with different methods. Arguing about which method is best is a waste of time just about any method can be profitable. My


----------



## Frank D

wavepicker said:


> Was it an illusion in October in 2007, when the AMT methodology was telling us to go long ANZ when Ew was saying it was a screaming short? Your gonna have to put up a better argument Frank




You still living in the past. You certainly have selective memory

To set the record straight, why the hell would I go long at the top of the market in 2007?

I always go long at the more robust levels, that being support.

That’s why I went long in 2008 at the channel lows


I went long 6 times… 4 winners & 2 losses.

But my winners were 3:1 risk reward on most occasion: - 10-25%

*2nd time in 2009 and both should end with profits*

If it fails I already know where my next entry is and where to exit. 

*In conclusion:- I’m always a winner even though I’ll take losses*


----------



## Trembling Hand

wavepicker said:


> Apart from what Nick has been kind enough to post, lately there has been little emphasis on this thread with regard to the* application of EW in real trading setups,* which is what most traders would like to see IMO.




Yep i have to agree on this one. More like discussing the shape of pretty clouds floating by while you are waiting for it to rain.


----------



## tech/a

Frank.

Why is it that you defend your negative position on E/W with such passion?
Can they not be complimentary?

Ive spent a great deal of time studying your writings.
There is some excellent principals in there.
While Elliott has and always will have various wave counts within various degrees,You'll always have 27 odd Dilernia principals to apply to your analysis IF X or Y occur within your dynamic framework.



> Yep i have to agree on this one. More like discussing the shape of pretty clouds floating by while you are waiting for it to rain.




And it can appear that way.
Waves has explained why hes been looking and discussing the minor patterns.
If you have a look at my rather poor (to the purist) but so far accurate wave counts By AGET months apart they have been and still are clear concise and correct.


----------



## Frank D

John,

27 odd principles need to be taken in context with the market.

If a major principle or Thrust pattern is occurring from the monthly 50% 
level out towards the channel extremes…

A position trader won’t need to use any of the lesser principles to trade, compared to a swing trader or a day trader.

That’s why we have principles of hoping back into trends using the 5-day 
50% level for swing traders, or counter-trend traders from the 5-day highs
 or lows.

Or shorting higher weekly opens and holding down into lower weekly 
closes using the Weekly 50% level. And Visa Versa.

They are all set-ups with some statistical correlation to actual
 market conditions, and the same applies to spiral points and the ATR of 
the market for day trading.

Basically, every principle is there for the each type of trader, so that
 the entry is at its most robust, therefore having less risk.

*These are called statistical set-ups.* That actually work in live trading conditions.


That’s why I have a negative position of E/W…

*There are no generic set-ups to trade that are the same for everyone 
or every type of trader. The analysis is illusionary. And it’s missing the 
most critical components of technical analysis:- support resistance and 
Time.*

A generic set-up with statistical probability is one where every trader 
trades the same pattern knowing that winners will out weight the losses.



tech/a said:


> Frank.
> If you have a look at my rather poor (to the purist) but so far accurate
> wave counts By AGET months apart they have been and still are
> clear concise and correct.




If I recall I remember you being bullish a much higher prices when there 
were thrust patterns appearing about the send the markets lower in the
 3th Quarter of 2008.

Then again I don't want to nit pick calls on the market, because we all get 
it wrong...

As OWG famous words were “ Elliot wave is never wrong”

Too me that comes from someone who doesn’t trade for a living 
and probably never will.

Elliot wave is like cask wine placed in a bottle and then labelled as 'grange'.

You know it doesn't smell right, you know it doesn't taste so good, but 
you keep drinking it because everyone tells you it's grange.


----------



## tech/a

*Frank* you maybe thinking of this thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6211

As it turned out I was correct and copped a heap of flack for my view.
Anyway thats past and the rest (latest charts) are also history positive at that.

*But* my point in all this is not which analysis is the more accurate but that there are forms of analysis and practitioners of that style of analysis who when they generally concur should be listened to and if it conforms with your/my analysis then you/we had better take close notice.



> There are no generic set-ups to trade that are the same for everyone
> or every type of trader. The analysis is illusionary. And it’s missing the
> most critical components of technical analysis:- support resistance and
> Time.




Actually there are.
As pointed out there are different degrees in which Elliott can be applied to right down to 1 min. There are many generic setups offered by AGET in all timeframes suiting all style of traders.
There are time lines.
There are support and resistance levels.
*Once understood *like your or any analysis worth applying it isnt illusionary.
To those not versed (be it Yours/Elliott/Steidlmayer/Wyckoff) not only is it illusionary but it is un comprehendable.


----------



## Porper

Frank D said:


> I’ve always said EW has too many important components that are missing
> as part of it’s Methodology:- Support/resistance & Time.




Not quite sure where you get this from Frank.Even in it's true form Elliot had channel lines to mark the probable end of waves, ie.draw a trendline between waves 1 & 3 to project the wave 4 etc.Then of course we have the Fibonacci sequence, if these aren't projecting support / resistance then what are they used for ?



Frank D said:


> Without TIME as part of the core methodology it becomes a Haphazard approach.




Fibonacci is also used to project turning points in the market, as in my attached chart.There are various ways to do this, too many to go into detail here.I personally use 4 or 5 techniques to come up with an area of confluence, if indeed one is apparant.



Frank D said:


> But unless you have ‘time’ as part of the core model then the majority of
> EW will get the timing wrong and have to rely on standardized trading
> set-ups of ‘breakout’ patterns or other variables..




As has been said many times on here, Elliot isn't used as a standalone method by most Elliot analysts, but rather as "part" of a method.Using other patterns can only aid in finding high probability set ups in my mind.



Frank D said:


> you don't need to label evey minor wave structure and then say
> _" that was a nice confirmation and giveaway that read ABC
> were complete"
> That's simply illusionary to the individual analyst and probably missed
> by most[/B]_



_

Disagree.The more sub divisions you label, the more chance you have of timing your entry, and, more importantly lowering your risk.Knowing when you are likely to be wrong is the most important thing in the whole set up i.m.o.

Anyway, here is my latest count of the All Ords with time projections.I still favour a low at the end of this month, despite some calling a bottom here.If I am incorrect I will know soon enough.Missing the exact bottom of this leg is unimportant in the big scheme of things.I have included a weekly chart although projections are used from the daily._


----------



## wavepicker

Hello Frank,

This is the *Elliott Wave Analysis Thread. *

All The Best

Wavepicker


----------



## MRC & Co

Sorry, don't want to stick my nose in here, but I think Frank explained how to add the aspect of 'time' to EW in an earlier post, perhaps he is just trying to help.  If your making as much as he is, then you definately wouldn't need it, but if not, then it maybe something to consider.  

Duck and cover, I'm outta here.


----------



## tech/a

MRC & Co said:


> Sorry, don't want to stick my nose in here, but I think Frank explained how to add the aspect of 'time' to EW in an earlier post, perhaps he is just trying to help.  If your making as much as he is, then you definately wouldn't need it, but if not, then it maybe something to consider.
> 
> Duck and cover, I'm outta here.




The addition of a time element into analysis (If you feel you need it) isnt the exclusive domain of Frank's own analysis. He does incorporate it well and yes has its place.
I dont think his comments are out of place here.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

I'm still amazed by the number of people who don't want to understand EW who wish to impart their 'wonderful' knowledge on the theory in this thread. If your looking for the bread isle, stopping shopping at Dick Smith, it isn't there.

If one has the time, you could scroll back thru this thread and the wider forum and see the same comments time and time again from the same trolls - it's time to move on, we're past it.


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> I'm still amazed by the number of people who don't want to understand EW who wish to impart their 'wonderful' knowledge on the theory in this thread. If your looking for the bread isle, stopping shopping at Dick Smith, it isn't there.
> 
> If one has the time, you could scroll back thru this thread and the wider forum and see the same comments time and time again from the same trolls - it's time to move on, we're past it.




Hi OWG,

In the mean time for those who are still interested in Elliott Wave analysis.  Whilst we are trying to work out the various patterns that may now apply to the present circumstances it is interesting to see what has happened to the DOW since it bottomed and then rallied up causing so may Elliott Wavers to reconsider their counts.  Here is a chart of that rally including the action that occurred last night out time.




We can see from the above chart that we have had a clear impulse wave up and are now about to enter the corrective phase.  If the corrective wave  is a Flat then we may get a double top, if a Zigzag then the move will go deeper.  At this stage I am looking at a target of around the 7100 level.


Cheers


----------



## biggles

Thanks for the chart Rudy, phwww we are back on track.

Can the people who have misgivings about it start their own thread please.

I can check it out from time to time but I'm interested in learning here and giving EW a go. 
I'm just don't want the likes of Rudy , Oz wave, Wavepicker, Tech/a ,Nick and others, to go away cos of the hassle, so  ....look forward to the doubters thread


----------



## allwave

I am new to this thread and from what I have seen so far, there are a few excellent elliott wave analysts we can ALL learn from. Lets concentrate on the wave counts and what is unfolding, rather then debating the theory. Does the theory work? Time has shown that it does. So, as somebody said earlier, I'd rather we move on. Thanks guys for your excellent wave counts.


----------



## Rudy

biggles said:


> Thanks for the chart Rudy, phwww we are back on track.
> 
> Can the people who have misgivings about it start their own thread please.
> 
> I can check it out from time to time but I'm interested in learning here and giving EW a go.
> I'm just don't want the likes of Rudy , Oz wave, Wavepicker, Tech/a ,Nick and others, to go away cos of the hassle, so  ....look forward to the doubters thread




Thanks Biggles.  I agree with you and Allwave.  I still have too much to learn about the Elliott Wave principles so I would like the thread to get back to where we were before the criticisms started.  As Wavepicker said, this is an EW thread and there a many of us who would like to learn more and exchange ideas about EW.

This isn't about which religion is the one and only true religion.  There are many of us older investors who like to use angles from various methodologies to confirm whether a trade is safe or not to undertake.

Cheers


----------



## OzWaveGuy

*XAO - 5 up*
A small five wave move up on the XAO looks complete. It has also hit some key resistance levels @ 3350 as well x2 Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2% ( from wave (4) ) and 61.8% (from wave 'b' circle).

The completed 5 waves up indicates a retracement should be forthcoming then (at least) another 5 waves up to form (at a minimum) a zig-zag correction (5-3-5). The ultimate target of the XAO may be around the 3500 level where again there is strong resistance and 61.8% fib retracement level.

The impending short term retracement (a 3 wave move, or a triangle) could take the XAO back down to 3250 (a 38.2% retrace of the recent leg up) or to just under 3200 (a 61.8% of the recent leg up) and also hitting fib levels from wave (4) and b circle as shown. As some have already suggested in the forum, this retracement may be an opportunity.


*Wave (5) Down - Ending Diagonal?*
The leg down from the end of wave (4) is a three wave move. So this evidence suggests either an ending diagonal is forming or wave (4) is still unfolding. 

The way I've labeled this chart is to imply a large ending diagonal is unfolding. In an ending diagonal scenario, 5 waves will form but all waves will contain 3 wave moves and waves 2 and 4 will overlap. So far, wave 1 contains a 3 wave move - wave 2 up is now underway with the 1st wave of three looking complete.

Should a larger 5 wave move upwards unfold, then I would consider wave (4) still unfolding and will be a triangle.

I should also point out that the recent 5 wave move upwards could be part of an expanded flat correction as the completing waves at the bottom end of the chart are a little messy and hence can be hard to interpret - So I've also got this scenario catered for in the back of my mind (eg driving under a 3200/61.8% retrace would start to get my attention). If true, the downtrend would be underway once again.

Note: Ignore the lowest bar at the bottom of the chart - that's a 62 point data anomaly from last week


----------



## Rudy

OzWaveGuy said:


> *XAO - 5 up*
> 
> *Wave (5) Down - Ending Diagonal?*
> The leg down from the end of wave (4) is a three wave move. So this evidence suggests either an ending diagonal is forming or wave (4) is still unfolding.




Hi OWG,

I have to admit to having a greater leaning towards the Expanded Flat pattern scenario with wave (4) still unfolding.


----------



## wavepicker

Hello Rudy,

Assuming the Irregular Flat is the structure in play, then we are looking at least 3750(assuming this is a regular flat- which is low probability since B exceeded last low (3)). This c wave has to be an impulse and as such a fast move up, therefore I am looking more so along the lines of the 3900-4000 range IF we are in fact playing out an expanded or irregular flat.

As OZ says there are other possibilities here, but at this stage when one looks at what other methodologies are suggesting together with EW these counts maybe a lower probability but nevertheless cannot be ignored.

Cheers


----------



## Rudy

wavepicker said:


> Hello Rudy,
> 
> Assuming the Irregular Flat is the structure in play, then we are looking at least 3750(assuming this is a regular flat- which is low probability since B exceeded last low (3)). This c wave has to be an impulse and as such a fast move up, therefore I am looking more so along the lines of the 3900-4000 range IF we are in fact playing out an expanded or irregular flat.
> 
> As OZ says there are other possibilities here, but at this stage when one looks at what other methodologies are suggesting together with EW these counts maybe a lower probability but nevertheless cannot be ignored.
> 
> Cheers




Hi Wavepicker,

No argument from me about there being a number of possibilities.  At times like this I like your idea of playing the medium term patterns in isolation.  Are we in a large C leg of wave (4)? Are we in wave 1 of higher level wave circle B?  Who knows because I don't.  At this stage they appear to be higher probability scenarios than further downward movement. Using other TA methodologies the market does look pretty bullish at present. The XJO has broken through the 50 day EMA with more gusto that it has for many months.

I too would expect the current move to go to above the termination point of my wave A in my previous post if it is an expanded flat pattern as I mentioned.



Cheers


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Rudy said:


> Hi Wavepicker,
> 
> No argument from me about there being a number of possibilities.  At times like this I like your idea of playing the medium term patterns in isolation.  Are we in a large C leg of wave (4)? Are we in wave 1 of higher level wave circle B?  Who knows because I don't.




Let me add to this as well....you've hit the nail on the head. Whilst we discussed an upcoming bounce last week - and we 'assumed' that this correction would be relatively small (eg wave 4). However, as it turns out something a little bigger is playing out, but for those trading the upwards move would have seen a completed 5 wave thrust up on the 12th, which indicated another 5 wave move needed to occur, which it has - then some.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

The XAO wave count hasn't played out as I had envisioned - something is up. There is now a chance that this leg up has completed as the short term wave counts do not make legal 5 wave impulses.


----------



## wavepicker

Following on from the analysis presented in posts 582-584, that SUGGESTED  either a low was in place for wave A or we are approaching a low:-

The move up the lows in the SP500 *at this stage *looks to be impulsive on the 4 hr chart. Red wave 5 on that chart appears to be complted(ing) and we have a divergence on the MACD. 
As expected we have had a very sharp move upward to date. In the earlier analysis we suggested that we still wave wave 5 of (5) to complete in the bear market if following the normal EW progression. 
However also mentioned that because a number of major of various degrees were bottoming at this juncture and that a low may already be in place and as such any retest of the lows might be a truncation or 5th wave failure.

We need to see what play out in the next couple of days in the SP500 to confirm this, but today (19th) a cycle point high is due using the fixed cycle analysis. Another possibility is the 26th March as well, but as we look like we have a completed impulse today looks like we could start to correct the advances made since March 6th, as such I have closed all my longs at this stage.


----------



## Rudy

wavepicker said:


> Following on from the analysis presented in posts 582-584, that SUGGESTED  either a low was in place for wave A or we are approaching a low:-
> 
> The move up the lows in the SP500 *at this stage *looks to be impulsive on the 4 hr chart. Red wave 5 on that chart appears to be complted(ing) and we have a divergence on the MACD.
> As expected we have had a very sharp move upward to date. In the earlier analysis we suggested that we still wave wave 5 of (5) to complete in the bear market if following the normal EW progression.
> However also mentioned that because a number of major of various degrees were bottoming at this juncture and that a low may already be in place and as such any retest of the lows might be a truncation or 5th wave failure.
> 
> We need to see what play out in the next couple of days in the SP500 to confirm this, but today (19th) a cycle point high is due using the fixed cycle analysis. Another possibility is the 26th March as well, but as we look like we have a completed impulse today looks like we could start to correct the advances made since March 6th, as such I have closed all my longs at this stage.




Hi Wavepicker,

We have a slightly different wave count because I have allowed for a truncated wave 5 to complete the down move.  So that means that I still have one relatively small move up tonight before we go into a down move possibly to the termination point of wave 4.





As a matter of interest the truncated wave 5 terminated at the same time as the NASDAQ bottomed.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

OzWaveGuy said:


> The XAO wave count hasn't played out as I had envisioned - something is up. There is now a chance that this leg up has completed as the short term wave counts do not make legal 5 wave impulses.




Based on the short term waves, I'm really not satisfied that we're seeing impulse moves upwards in this latest rally. Even though at first glance 5 waves appears unfolding. In any event the answer should be with us very soon.

What may be unfolding instead is a triple combination - three 3 wave moves (with intervening 'X' waves) with a triangle for the last wave. Double combinations are more prevalent on the shorter term waves, so seeing a triple at this scale would be interesting to see confirmed.

Because of the triangle at the end of these corrective waves structures, many analysts will believe a wave 4 triangle is unfolding and expect another leg up.

If the above analysis is correct, we should see the rest of the triangle play out (tomorrow hopefully), and then a strong thrust to the downside once completed.


----------



## nunthewiser

Gday Ozwave ...

personally think a downleg due imminently as in tommorow perhaps . dunno how that fits in the wave count but trading it that way here personally


----------



## nunthewiser

Also hows that BHP count going .... has rentered a short on them earlier today just wondering on how yours and my view compares . 

not here to diss just curious


----------



## nunthewiser

ooops please forgive me . sometime i post faster than i read at times . your chart actually in agreement with me on direction ..... no worries your chart has answered my first statement , sorry for the hassle


----------



## wavepicker

Hello Oz, agree with your short term count on the XAO. This didn't look easy to count as an impulse at first glance, but the structure in the SP500 does. 
So really need to see what happens on the next leg down to pass judgement. 

What was clear, was that we would rally and that presented some good long trades. For now going to kick back and nut out the pattern of trend that unfolds on the pullback.  

Just looking at some other unrelated EW cycles studies,they concur with both your EW and the earlier analysis for the SP500 that a pullback is due here.(Price action is at 3 std deviations above nominal as well as divergence on zero lag MACD.) 
If this pullback does not make a new low then it's difficult to determine exactly at which level it could end at although the 50% retrace level is always a good place to start. The lower bands of the cycles analysis for the XJO (see chart attached) is about 38.2-50% retrace. But ofcourse the most important clue will be the pattern of trend that unfolds itsef, i.e corrective or impulsive 

Cheers


----------



## allwave

There seam to be some similarity between the 1994 bear and this bear, although on a different scale. That bear ended with a diagonal triangle.


Please see attachment.


----------



## allwave

I'd like to add that posts made by me on this forum are only my personal opinions and do not constitute trading or investing advice.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

nunthewiser said:


> Also hows that BHP count going .... has rentered a short on them earlier today just wondering on how yours and my view compares .
> 
> not here to diss just curious




One day out?


----------



## nunthewiser

OzWaveGuy said:


> One day out?




 maybe


----------



## CamKawa

To go off on a bit of a tangent. What are the characteristics of markets that work well with EW?


----------



## wavepicker

Just some EW thoughts on BHP.  BHP appears to have completed an impulse wave from it's last low of 26.64. That level was off a completed red wave b irregular or expanded flat. One would be expecting this market to pullback to approximately 38.2-50 %of the last range up along with the broader XAO.

Will attempt to give some timing for this using fixed cycles analysis of the XAO since BHP has such a large weighting in this index. The explanation of the Fixed Analysis Cycle Chart can be found in the following earlier post in the Market Outlook attachment:-

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=408248&postcount=582


Red 4 on Cycles chart has come in approximately as expected relative to the blue vertical line in comparison to the last time it occurred on 04/04/08. (Refer maroon arrows) 
As such next low (red 5) due approximately April 5-8 relative to blue and yellow lines and to earlier occurrence 14/04/08(blue arrows)

Either way BHP maybe a short term, shorting opportunity this week as it exhausted into a high on Friday, with a stop just above that high @ 32.88, with an approximate target dates for the next low @ April 5-8. Thereafter IF a clear EW ABC retracement  coincides with the timing, there maybe a good long setup, but more on that at a later stage, IF the current market analysis is playing ball with my thoughts here.


Cheers


----------



## Sean K

Does the break up through 3300 and then 3400 have any significance to the EW counts and trend at this point?


----------



## Rudy

wavepicker said:


> Just some EW thoughts on BHP.
> Either way BHP maybe a short term, shorting opportunity this week as it exhausted into a high on Friday, with a stop just above that high @ 32.88, with an approximate target dates for the next low @ April 5-8. Thereafter IF a clear EW ABC retracement  coincides with the timing, there maybe a good long setup, but more on that at a later stage, IF the current market analysis is playing ball with my thoughts here.
> 
> 
> Cheers




Hi Wavepicker,

Thanks for that EW count on BHP. I was getting a bit lost on the last impulse wave.  

For what it's worth, I also like to look at timing elements associated with my EW analysis. For example we know that the XJO topped on the 1st November 2007.  360 trading days from that market top happens to fall on the 8th April 2009 which coincides nicely with your turn date.  I look forward with great anticipation to see how accurately that date plays out.

Cheers


----------



## Rudy

CamKawa said:


> To go off on a bit of a tangent. What are the characteristics of markets that work well with EW?




Hi CamKawa,

As no one else seems to want to answer your question, I'll have a stab at it. Probably best to take an extract out of Prechter and Frosts book Elliott Wave Principle as it is one of the bibles of Elliott Wavers.

"_As a mass psychological phenomenon, the market averages unfold in Elliott Wave patterns regardless of the price movements of individual stocks. As we shall illustrate, whilst the Wave Principle has some application to individual stocks, the count of many issues is often too fuzzy to be of great practical value.  In other words, Elliott will tell you if the track is fast but not which horse is going to win.  With regard to individual stocks, other types of analysis are probably more rewarding than trying to force the stock's price into an Elliott count that may or may not exist.

There is reason to this.  The Wave Principle broadly allows of individual attitudes and circumstances to affect price patterns of any single issue and, to a lesser degree, a narrow group of stocks, *simply because what the Elliott Wave Principle reflects is only that part of each man's decision process which is shared by the mass of investors.*  In the larger reflection of wave form, then, the unique circumstances of individual investors and individual companies cancel each other out, leaving as residue a mirror of the mass mind alone._

There is obviously a lot more said in the book but basically he is saying that the larger the number of participants forming the 'mass' the better Elliott Wave will work.  That is why indices and broadly traded commodities and foreign exchange markets tend to work best with Elliott Wave.  As Nick Radge has already argued elsewhere, some stocks do work well with Elliott Wave methodologies however when they don't then don't try to force wave counts on them that don't exist because you are only deluding yourself.

I hope that answers your question. 

Cheers


----------



## Rudy

kennas said:


> Does the break up through 3300 and then 3400 have any significance to the EW counts and trend at this point?




Hi Kennas,

As you probably know from reading this thread, the EW methodology uses a process where the analyst attempts to determine where abouts in a pattern the market action currently resides.  There are times when the pattern is pretty clear and other times such as the current one that it is not so clear.

During these times we have in mind a number of scenarios that may play out and as the market action unfolds it slowly eliminates many of the possible scenarios.  For me the break up through 3300 and 3400 still leaves EW analysts in a bind because there are scenarios that have these moves that range from extremely bearish to quite bullish.

The bullish Elliott Wavers have us in the early stages of a multi-month rally where we have just had wave 1 of that rally and are about to retrace in wave 2.

The bearish Elliott Wavers have us just completing a wave 2 in a downward move and we are about to go into wave 3.

Those treading the middle path like me have us still in an unfolding wave (4) pattern after completing wave (3) on the 21st November 2008.

At this stage of the game I believe that all of the above scenarios have a reasonable probability of being correct and it will take further market action to determine the outcome.

Some critics of EW will say well how useless is all of that but in fact it is no different to any other form of technical analysis where the analyst says if this happens then this will be the outcome however if that happens then that will be the outcome.  There are times when we just have to sit it out to see what happens and have our trading set ups aligned to any of the potential outcomes.

Cheers


----------



## Rudy

*Is there a chance of a kick up in the XJO today ?*

Whilst I believe that a retracement is on the cards for our index in the very near future and may even start today, I do have an EW count which indicates that there may be one wave left to go before the move down.


----------



## wavepicker

Certainly is starting to look that way Rudy, lets's see what happens for the rest of this and next week

Cheers


----------



## Lachlan6

MND appears to be a good shorting candidate. Almost perfect wave equality between the waves A and C coupled with a weak showing so far today. It looks like five sub-divided waves within the larger C wave are nearing completion, which should send the stock lower in the larger wave (B). Will wait for the close but likely will short at $8.02, stop at $8.24 and target at $6.38.


----------



## Boggo

Hi Lachlan

I had LEI, WES and WBC in my sights (almost similiar ABC type corrections) over the weekend as possible shorts, the current market momentum seems to taking everything up with it at the moment.

When and where this run ends may create a few shorts though.

Just my


----------



## OzWaveGuy

There seems to be quite a few stocks in this position. The XAO is at or approaching a pivotal juncture depending how you read the wave counts. One is that the XAO could see some aggressive declines and is a much better fit with the overall wave structure for the last 4months.


----------



## Nero64

Sorry if this has already been mentioned. 

What are some good books on learning Elliot Wave theory. 

Is Nick Radge's book any good - Adaptive Analysis?


----------



## johnnyg

Boggo said:


> Hi Lachlan
> 
> I had LEI, WES and WBC in my sights (almost similiar ABC type corrections) over the weekend as possible shorts, the current market momentum seems to taking everything up with it at the moment.
> 
> When and where this run ends may create a few shorts though.
> 
> Just my




Throw JBH into the mix aswell Boggo. May provide a good R:R.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

WOR looked like it was forming an ending diagonal for wave '5' of 'C', completing a Flat (3-3-5). The wave structure suggests that this has now occurred and there should be a pullback, possibly to a new low.

Whether a more complex correction is to unfold remains to be seen, but the short term wave counts on a 15min or 60min chart will clearly highlight the finer details of the declining wave structure. Should five clear waves down on the daily chart become visible, then this will provide some reasonable clarity on the directions of WOR in the coming weeks.


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Nero64 said:


> Sorry if this has already been mentioned.
> 
> What are some good books on learning Elliot Wave theory.
> 
> Is Nick Radge's book any good - Adaptive Analysis?




Hi Nero

Nick's book is very useful and provides practicalities of trading as well as covering EW.

For Intermediate EW: Robert Prechters 'Elliott Wave Principle' is very good
For Advanced EW: Glenn Neely's 'Mastering Elliott Wave' is Excellent (although unnecessarily complex in some of the chapters). He covers complex corrections very well and does a reasonable job with providing guidance as to when corrections are considered complete - hence creating an entry signal.

There was another book that some folks have mentioned in the past, can't remember it - maybe someone will post the name again


----------



## wavepicker

"Applying Elliott Wave Profitably" by Steven W Poser

is another one that ain't bad


----------



## Boggo

OzWaveGuy said:


> There was another book that some folks have mentioned in the past, can't remember it - maybe someone will post the name again




*Dynamic Trading* by Robert Miner perhaps.
I find he gets to the point without over complicating the issue.

My


----------



## beamstas

Boggo said:


> Hi Lachlan
> 
> I had LEI, WES and WBC in my sights (almost similiar ABC type corrections) over the weekend as possible shorts, the current market momentum seems to taking everything up with it at the moment.
> 
> When and where this run ends may create a few shorts though.
> 
> Just my




How do you plan to short WBC?


----------



## OzWaveGuy

Boggo said:


> *Dynamic Trading* by Robert Miner perhaps.
> I find he gets to the point without over complicating the issue.
> 
> My




That's the one


----------



## tech/a

wavepicker said:


> "Applying Elliott Wave Profitably" by Steven W Poser
> 
> is another one that ain't bad




Application--must have a look.




Nero64 said:


> Sorry if this has already been mentioned.
> 
> What are some good books on learning Elliot Wave theory.
> 
> Is Nick Radge's book any good - Adaptive Analysis?





Nicks book wont help you learn Elliott.
He does show his application of a setup using Elliott.

The first 50 pages whilst un related directly to Elliott are a must for every trader. In my opinion.


----------



## Boggo

beamstas said:


> How do you plan to short WBC?




Plan on hold at the moment but via ASX CFD's on the SFE, WCK6.SFE


----------



## OzWaveGuy

*XAO*
There 2 highly probable scenarios for the XAO that are valid right now. One is a bounce that will last for several months and second is the completion of wave (4) as a Flat (Expanded Flat).

The scenario below focuses on this second scenario - which I tend to favour as wave alternation in shape, time and price would be very evident in this scenario. Time-wise, wave (4) would be around double that of wave (2) 

As for the end of this current leg up, I would expect to see some evidence of exhaustion from now upto the areas indicated on the chart. In an expanded flat scenario, wave C may head beyond the end of wave A.

The wave labels for wave C could also change as more subdivisions unfold. A break out (or false breakout) of the channel to the downside that wave C is operating within will help in identifying potential end points for this leg. 

Under this scenario once wave C up completes to finish off wave (4), wave (5) will commence and take the index down to new lows. 

Cheers 

OWG


----------



## wavepicker

OzWaveGuy said:


> *XAO*
> There 2 highly probable scenarios for the XAO that are valid right now. One is a bounce that will last for several months and second is the completion of wave (4) as a Flat (Expanded Flat).




Hello Oz,

Thanks for your thoughts. Yes both valid scenarios indeed.
However I would favour your scenario number one myself (and have traded the market with respect to this just prior this rally started))for various reasons outlined in the following analysis:-

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=408248&postcount=582

This was clearly evident just before rally started(in the analysis presented in combo with EW). Most did not see this rally coming, but if particular attention was paid to the financials( in terms of EW), the  relevant EW patterns in ANZ and CBA to name a few showed a FAST rally was about to commence.

Sometimes it's difficult to make heads or tails of patterns simply focusing on the indices and looking at the movements/patterns  of the stocks which have the largest weightings in these indices can benefit.


Having said that you are right, a pullback is due in this market. The key dates were 19th March andf 27th March. Obviously 19th past, so let's see what next week brings. Perhaps a good opportunity to re position for longs.
All the Best

Wavepicker


----------



## Trembling Hand

wavepicker said:


> This was clearly evident just before rally started(in the analysis presented in combo with EW). *Most did not see this rally coming,*




LOL, excluding you, Not in this thread anyway!!


----------



## Sean K

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL, excluding you, Not in this thread anyway!!



LOLOL, LOLOL. etc...


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:


> LOLOL, LOLOL. etc...




.. yours baby!!  LOL

At least when I post, I put up some analysis to support my thoughts, right or wrong. Which is more than your smart ass dribble ......

Go and wreck another thread kennas...  you are doing a brilliant job of defacing this one. A mod???


----------



## OzWaveGuy

wavepicker said:


> Go and wreck another thread kennas...  you are doing a brilliant job of defacing this one. A mod???




My thoughts exactly. The usual trolls are back delivering the usual zero-value baggage.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh Please. When you have been calling for falls over the last 20 days of the biggest % rally since god knows when then call for a rise just as we start to top out ya got to expect a little heat.

Your have been wrong. Simple as that. Take it.


----------



## nunthewiser

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh Please. When you have been calling for falls over the last 20 days of the biggest % rally since god knows when then call for a rise just as we start to top out ya got to expect a little heat.
> 
> Your have been wrong. Simple as that. Take it.




Nice to have you back dear


----------



## Rudy

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh Please. When you have been calling for falls over the last 20 days of the biggest % rally since god knows when then call for a rise just as we start to top out ya got to expect a little heat.
> 
> Your have been wrong. Simple as that. Take it.





And I supposed you with your superior knowledge was able to clearly see that it would continue going up but forgot to mention it in advance 

Why don't you do something really useful and take your know all moronic statements somewhere else.  I have yet to see you make any comments of any value on this thread.


----------



## tech/a

*From post 573*


tech/a said:


> OZ the charts a Weekly so have given you both the weekly and Daily.
> 
> As you know AGET has algorithm wave counts so arent picture perfect.
> I dont expect or need them to be in my trading.
> 
> The Weekly count (Major waves) look wrong and the lower timeframe count similar to Rudy's looks more symetrical. Ending wave 5 (3) This I prefer.Alternate count in BLUE.
> 
> *Anyway trading it as a wave 4*.  until proven otherwise either way its bullish




Err not all T/H.
Now you can see why I prefer simplicity.



> Oh Please. When you have been calling for falls over the last 20 days of the biggest % rally since god knows when then call for a rise just as we start to top out ya got to expect a little heat.
> 
> Your have been wrong. Simple as that. Take it.


----------



## nunthewiser

without any fluffarising ........... it was a good call actually tech/a


----------



## Trembling Hand

Rudy said:


> And I supposed you with your superior knowledge was able to clearly see that it would continue going up but forgot to mention it in advance
> 
> Why don't you do something really useful and take your know all moronic statements somewhere else.  I have yet to see you make any comments of any value on this thread.




Buddy god help any poor sucker starting out trading looking for direction in this thread. 

There is no value in this rubbish. As tech alluded to awhile ago. Keep it simple. 

Your levels have continually broken yet you complex and endless labeling has kept you blind to the two simplest and most BASIC concepts. SUPPORT and TRENDS!!  

I've been bullish since the 7:04 AM on 3rd of March.



> Not only was that support there it was standing up in the face of the US getting "oversold", plenty of forewarning of a coming rally




 And i reckon about 11:45 or 1:00 Monday will see the end of this little run. But If I'm wrong I'll have a much simpler way of reassessing than what i have seen from most on this thread.


----------



## tech/a

> And i reckon about 11:45 or 1:00 Monday




Could you be a little more specific?


----------



## tech/a

Keeping it simple I'm expecting this sort of move.
Still bullish EVEN when we have the pullback we need to have!

On the other points T/H brings up.

I would be very disappointed if those who are watching this thread discard E/W as too complex and without foundation.
I really don't see the need to be wave perfect in analysis if using E/W in a practical trading sense.
Ive used it for quite a few years and rely on AGET as time to label each wave just isn't available.
Using the software without a good sounding of Elliott principals would be plain suicidal!
There are concrete rules you must know them to have any chance at all at having a count that has any chance of being valid. Yes there are and will always be alternate counts.
Clear counts are SIMPLY ----CLEAR.

There is analysis and then there is practical application---the Grand Canyon stands between---.


----------



## Lachlan6

Let's get this thread back on track. The Energy (XEJ) Sector is at an interesting juncture currently. It reached wave equality in the last two days and today's action represented some selling. Will that mark the larger wave (A) and a resultant push lower in the wave (B)? This may be premature when we consider the wave c has only contained three waves so far and ideally should have five. 

The bootom line is at this stage I am suggesting the massive downward move is over and Energy is undergoing the big corrective move higher. The area to look for would be 15340 - 16480 at this stage. So I would be looking at any choppy corrective wave B as an excellent buying opportunity.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Guys this is nonsense, Correct me if I'm wrong But,

*This is a public forum.*

The next time one of you pick the great crash of 2010 or the great bull of 2019 you will rightly be boasting about it and reminding anyone when ever you are challenged. And rightly so. If you make a good call its YOUR good call.

If you are wrong and stay wrong then its fair enough that someone points that out. Even if they aren't a fan of your application. Its not a personal attack its just a fact. You were wrong. Big deal get over it.

This is the EW thread and people have equal right to question or challenge the application of EW or even EW as a form of analysis if they can make a fair argument. To the same people who pimp it as a method. Especially as a counter for newbies coming along looking for direction. Its all to easy to become an internet guru when bad calls that would blow your account in the real world of trading are swept under the carpet. And if that is what you guys want this thread about then its not me who's postings have no value :


----------



## biggles

TH why are they wrong? I don't get what your talking about. Do you think the bull market has resumed !!!! We haven't even broken through 3800 yet.
Most EW technicians prefer to ride the wave 3. I think you need to read a few books on the subject before you bag it.
What a stirrer


----------



## Rudy

Trembling Hand said:


> Guys this is nonsense, Correct me if I'm wrong But,
> 
> [If you are wrong and stay wrong then its fair enough that someone points that out. Even if they aren't a fan of your application. Its not a personal attack its just a fact. You were wrong. Big deal get over it.





TH,

If you can put your bias aside for one post and understood what the EW process is you would not be so critical.  No one here is suggesting that the EW methodology is the 'holy grail'.  It is a methodology relating to pattern recognition.  As a pattern starts unfolding there are patterns that have a higher probability of unfolding than others.  When an impulse wave begins to unfold, there is no way of knowing if that impulse wave will be a 5, 9 or 13 wave impulse wave before the event.

The EW methodology will help you realise when the 5th wave is in play that *it is a likely turning point.......it does not say that it will be a turning point.*  It is no different to TA methodologies that use support and resistance levels.  Some support and resistance levels work and others don't.  TA methodologies of any type are not an exact science, they are methodologies that allow investors/traders to determine higher probability outcomes than normal.....nothing more, nothing less.

Your constant criticism about being wrong only shows everyone that you have no idea what the EW methodology is. It in no way makes them think that you are a brilliant analyst.  This is not a matter of being wrong or right, it is a matter of identifying an unfolding pattern.

If there is a strong resistance level that the market breaks through, you don't say to the analyst that suggests that it is a likely turning point "Hey you got that wrong" do you?  It is no different using EW methodology.  If you must be critical then understand what you are criticising before you do otherwise you just sound like a typical street vandal who gets a kick out of destroying what others are attempting to constructively build.

When we call a possible turning point at the end of a 5th wave in an impulse pattern and it keeps extending we are neither right or wrong any more than TA analysts who say that a strong support level is a possible turning point.

We don't need 'know it alls' on the side lines making constant mis-informed criticisms.  If you don't like EW analysis that's fair enough.  It doesn't suit every one, but why spoil it for those who are interested and want to learn the methodology. There is no doubt that some personalities don't like to work with great detail and there call is keep it simple.  There is no argument with a KISS principle but EW enthusists do believe that there is value in going into the deail and for those who do, why not allow them the opportunity to do so.  Or do you want the world to be filled with TH clones in order for you to feel that the world is a better place.  Have you ever heard of the saying 'live and let live?'

ASF is a great website and there are forums to suit every one's tastes.  It is obvious you have no use for EW so how about finding a forum where you can make a worth while contribution instead of your constant negative views.


----------



## Frank D

Rudy said:


> When an impulse wave begins to unfold, there is no way of knowing if that impulse wave will be a 5, 9 or 13 wave impulse wave before the event.




Now there are 9 and 13 waves?

No wonder you guys keep chasing shadows




> The next time one of you pick the great crash of 2010 or the great bull of 2019 you will rightly be boasting about it and reminding anyone when ever you are challenged.




I’ve got a gut feeling that somehow the E-waves will have predicted the exact highs in April, and the next BUY will be around a lower patterns in MAY.


----------



## tech/a

There are 2 distinct sides to this argument.

(1) *The Pro's*

Understanding of the methodology.

(2) *The Con's*

Lack of understanding of the methodology.

*Practical application *of any form of analysis goes a long way towards crystallising an understanding.

Radge tried this on the "Practical Application of Elliott Wave Analysis" thread.
But as usual people were more interested in their own voice than others.

*Mods* may consider locking threads presented by obviously qualified people in their field and a babble thread can be opened to mirror it for those who want to see their own voice in print.

That way excellent threads wont get destroyed and *MORE IMPORTANTLY* Excellent posters wont get fed up and leave!!!


----------



## MR.

From the 12/3/09 above:


MR. said:


> As an outsider it does appear one can manipulate or dismiss the waves as one sees fit!
> 
> Techa  appears to me as being rather optimistic. When Ozwaveguy appearing pessimistic.
> 
> Get rid of the emotion and with all emotion cast aside what do the various Elliott waves project?
> 
> A rebound has been expected.  As these pics indicate on the all-ords and the US S&P.  ....  As much as I want to believe Techa I would think there is too much pessimism and concern kicking about for a good rebound at this time.
> 
> View attachment 28593
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 28594






tech/a said:


> For me its not about being right or wrong.
> 
> Its about the analysis being correct until its proven to be incorrect.






Rudy said:


> Hi MR,
> 
> ...... There are times when the pattern being revealed is pretty obvious and other times (such as during a highly complex corrective wave pattern) that the pattern possibly can't be determined until the pattern is almost complete.
> 
> ...... There is no doubt that there is a natural tendency for any analyst to project their own pessimistic or optimistic bias into an interpretation but that bias is quickly eliminated through the correct application of the process.  Cheers






MR. said:


> Yes I also like both charts. Happy to post them here. I feel they do reflect along with the optimistic bias and (perhaps a change in the wind) towards Tech/a's trail of thought.






tech/a said:


> Those which stick out are the ones which I look for I'm only interested in direction. The rest comes from other analysis.




So to conclude:

We don't really appear to need EW. Bloody cartman.....  Almost blind Freddy can determine which way the market is suddenly heading, can do that without EW.  But EW is still a reference.....

Tech/a's call had little to do with EW it was far more that "other analysis"

So what other analysis:
-Kennas points out the amount of money on the side of the market. 

-Trembling Hand points out the support at approx 3200, what was it "very very" or "really really" whatever.....

-Sinner and others suddenly start pointing out a few articles. and I pointed out above "a change in the wind" on tech's decision.

- Mean while,  Nun's still shorting BHP.......  Huh ........  Skip that bit..... but he's right ofcoarse... LOL, is that a LOL at Nun or a LOL at Nun being right, I can never tell when I read others posts.. LOL, no no, LOL I mean??? huh 

- As the charts I posted above,  this current drop is basically at it's historical lows.  Many would have been looking at similar charts world wide. 

Disappearing WayneL pointed out to me on the thread "Cash is king" about not locking up cash funds. Hmmm......, Tech/a if I only had available funds!!!! But would have I used them?  

Lets face it the next 20 years is going to look like this:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19601980.html

This one may swing towards trading yet.
It's "Monopoly" as soon as you don't treat it that way the sooner you're left behind.................................................. or broke!

and I'll add we still have EW posters predicting future waves in different directions with perhaps their bia's still intact.

.


----------



## Sean K

There was some nice constructive discussion on EW until a couple of weeks ago.

I'm sure this thread will get back on track now.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Frank D said:


> Now there are 9 and 13 waves?
> 
> No wonder you guys keep chasing shadows
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I’ve got a gut feeling that somehow the E-waves will have predicted the exact highs in April, and the next BUY will be around a lower patterns in MAY.




I seen you mess up a few calls Frank your magic system is hardly perfect!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL, excluding you, Not in this thread anyway!!




that's unfair and unjustified. I talk to Wavepicker on MSN just about every night of the week.

He has been telling me about a rally in shares since start or march or late feb. He also called the rally on the eur/usd. I was not good enough to see it then, It took me till the middle of March to see the pattern of trend.

I posted that in forex factory if you doubt me. 

Kennas, I thought you're a MOD and you are ment to show an unbiased opinion in your role here at ASF? 

I see that you have a problem with Wavepicker and jump in at him when you get the chance.

I am not innocent in terms of coming to threads and hammering people. But as far as I see it this thread was fine till TH came in and made a comment which u backed up.

I find it strange you say the thread is fixed after you partly ruined it. 

I hope this post stays up as I also agree with TH, *this is a public forum! *

Cheers


----------



## nunthewiser

MR. said:


> From the 12/3/09 above:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> - Mean while,  Nun's still shorting BHP.......  Huh ........  Skip that bit..... but he's right ofcoarse... LOL, is that a LOL at Nun or a LOL at Nun being right, I can never tell when I read others posts.. LOL, no no, LOL I mean??? huh
> 
> -  .





nah m8 NUN not still shorting BHP , nun took a smack in his chops for his impatience and reading of his signals incorrectly , nothin to do with EW either ,,,,, it happens and i,ll laugh at any trader that says it dont 

NUN dont claim to be right either , just another trader doing the thang .... happy not to post nothing here other than incoherent jumble like your goodself if it makes my desicions on my trading look as good as everyone elses here

but just for the record .NUN WILL be entering another BHP short shortly IF he gets the green light from the convent soon .

have a great day dear


----------



## nunthewiser

UH ?? why everyone on kennas back ? . all he did was laugh ? .....i have seen questions from him about EW here ....... is that wrong ? 


personally dont know what all the hooplah,s about really . 


now just to add my bit 


LOL LOL LOL 

have a great day

sorry for that zero value post


----------



## nunthewiser

OH DEAR! i just scrolled back fight fans!!!


IT SEEMS................ kennas posted LOLOL after TH,s indepth post on his findings . then wave picker and others jumped all over him .......... WTF ?? that cant be right ??? PLEASE do NOT scroll back unless ya want the truth to poke ya in the eye ..........



would like to thank all those involved for some great entertainment as it seems this EW analysis sure is a great indicator and catalyst of human emotion in forums ....... at least no one can deny it works there at least 

ok back to working out what count BHP is at


----------



## Sean K

nunthewiser said:


> OH DEAR! i just scrolled back fight fans!!!
> 
> 
> IT SEEMS................ kennas posted LOLOL after TH,s indepth post on his findings . then wave picker and others jumped all over him .......... WTF ?? that cant be right ??? PLEASE do NOT scroll back unless ya want the truth to poke ya in the eye ..........



It seems LOLOL'ing here is scope for attack, and personal abuse, and threats to have me sacked as a Mod. WTF?


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> that's unfair and unjustified. I talk to Wavepicker on MSN just about every night of the week.






It gets better!!!! Apocalypto that very post of mine was giving full recognision to the fact that WP had called for a rally. This is insane.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> It gets better!!!! Apocalypto that very post of mine was giving full recognision to the fact that WP had called for a rally. This is insane.




sorry mate, if that was the case I totally misunderstood you  :bonk:

apologies TH!  

ok back on topic, I am out of here.......


----------



## tech/a

> ok back to working out what count BHP is at




I'll save you some time.
Click to expand.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

tech/a said:


> I'll save you some time.
> Click to expand.




Tech,

what are the three lines going though the price on the highs? (blue green and red)

do you think the 4 is complete now, in EW do you allow for minor thrusts? 

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand

Rudy said:


> TH,
> 
> If you can put your bias aside for one post and understood what the EW process is you would not be so critical.
> 
> ASF is a great website and there are forums to suit every one's tastes.  It is obvious you have no use for EW so how about finding a forum where you can make a worth while contribution instead of your constant negative views.




Rudy !!!!

Yes yes blah blah. 

Constant negative views. . I made a comment about 2 weeks ago that to ME it seems that the constant labeling of every little micro wave was "More like discussing the shape of pretty clouds floating by while you are waiting for it to rain." 

As it stands I still don't see how you guys use it to trade. If you even trade or this is just entertainment for you. But its obvious that any questioning or light pokes will just lead everyone down the road of a **** storm. So I'll move on. My work here is done


----------



## MR.

nunthewiser said:


> NUN dont claim to be right either , just another trader doing the thang .... happy not to post nothing here other than incoherent jumble like your goodself if it makes my desicions on my trading look as good as everyone elses here




Hey Nun, dear, not having a go at you.  Although it appears that way, perhaps. I still think your spot on shorting BHP. Even have some CFD account forms in my hand as a method to join your short. Not sure if I have the guts.....
The LOL's are general across all posters. anyway. Not picking on anyone here.

Was just having a look at the EW. As for my trading I thought I have already made that clear.

Interesting which basket I now fall though!  I'm not a trader I made nil. Now arn't I good. that calls for a real LOL do you think? careful.. you might fall into a basket you don't expect!


> incoherent jumble



Is that how it really reads?


----------



## nunthewiser

MR. said:


> Hey Nun, dear, not having a go at you.  Although it appears that way, perhaps. I still think your spot on shorting BHP. Even have some CFD account forms in my hand as a method to join your short. Not sure if I have the guts.....
> The LOL's are general across all posters. anyway. Not picking on anyone here.
> 
> Was just having a look at the EW. As for my trading I thought I have already made that clear.
> 
> Interesting which basket I now fall though!  I'm not a trader I made nil. Now arn't I good. that calls for a real LOL do you think? careful.. you might fall into a basket you don't expect!
> 
> Is that how it really reads?





sorry 

my sincerest apologies re " incoherant jumble" 

big night , grumpy and snappy 

good luck with it re BHP short , not saying im right on it just it it keeps nudging my probability criterias 

my last short entry on BHP cost me a cupla bucks as the jump the next trade session went past my actual low% stopout point . taught me a lesson.....just cos i think im right  often doesent make it so .... was right in taking the loss regardless as climbed even further after and is at a make or break point in my view now ....... watching and waiting like a hawk now and will endeavour to not be so impatient and maybe miss the perfect entry but at least the probabilitys will be more in line with my entry

again sorry for being snappy 

have a good day


----------



## nunthewiser

Thanks tech/a


----------



## Boggo

Back on some kind of topic 



Boggo said:


> Plan on hold at the moment but via ASX CFD's on the SFE, WCK6.SFE




Plan may come off hold on Monday, looks like it may have hit resistance at 1.62 APP. 

(click to expand)


----------



## Bobby

Those into religion would like EW , both have the same penumbra type reasoning , or is it a feeling of schmaltz  that drives one on the endless search .
EW fans could just titillate us septics with what will happen next Tuesday lunchtime, pick something ~~~ but will the count  need to be adjusted again    ?



and again

And Again 

PUBLIC  FORUM Guys enjoy.


----------



## weird

EW is just a reason to trade, I don't think any EW trader holds any expectation of the future than any other trader, just a practical spot to have a reason to take a trade, with a defined stop loss, and entry price, with a possible profit target to make the trade worthwhile ... so R/R,  there is a difference between practical EW trading and religious EW trading (heck on the latter no one trader seems to agree). While I have been a skeptic too on EW, it does seem to address some human behavior quite well, which is repeated again and again,  hence look at the practical use of it.

I had an interesting discussion over a meal tonight, where some one said they were about to start trading an EW system with a 70% win ratio, I was very skeptical as I from experience have traded successful systems with only a 33-60% win ratio ... 70% is too high as a believable trading system. .... practical mid term EW systems seem to range more in the 40% win ratio ....  but its not the win ratio we are looking at for the overall profitability of the system.


----------



## Porper

Bobby said:


> EW fans could just titillate us septics with what will happen next Tuesday    ?




Your words Bobby not mine 

Some on here are showing great ignorance as to the application of Elliot Wave.

Some have an understanding but are just being deliberately antagonistic for whatever reason.Probably because like most in this market they are losing money.

I personally know 3 people on this forum that have made nice profits trading end of day charts using Elliot Wave in conjunction with other patterns.They don't use it in isolation.

There is a big difference between an Elliot Wave theorist and a realist in my opinion.


----------



## biggles

OK EW is  this and EW is that and EW is crap
We get the message!!!! you have won 
Gee I'm really disappointed in Aussie Stock forum. I thought this forum was supposed to be a pleasant place. Why is the Moderator NOT STEPPING IN HERE. Why can't there be a thread where people with a common interest be left in peace to discuss it. Surely the Moderator can at least warn the mockers


----------



## nunthewiser

biggles said:


> Why can't there be a thread where people with a common interest be left in peace to discuss it. Surely the Moderator can at least warn the mockers





punish ppl for having a different opinion ?

punish ppl for not agreeing with certain methods?

punish ppl for questioning publicly made statements in a public forum?

should your post be punished also for taking the subject off topic ?


----------



## IFocus

Porper said:


> Your words Bobby not mine
> 
> Some on here are showing great ignorance as to the application of Elliot Wave.
> 
> Some have an understanding but are just being deliberately antagonistic for whatever reason.Probably because like most in this market they are losing money.
> 
> I personally know 3 people on this forum that have made nice profits trading end of day charts using Elliot Wave in conjunction with other patterns.They don't use it in isolation.
> 
> *There is a big difference between an Elliot Wave theorist and a realist in my opinion.*




Not only EW I think Porper, but trading in general but still its a forum so its all theory ,

What I find fascinating is the criticism of individuals then the extrapolation of that to the method complete with all the baggage of emotional bias really extraordinary and this from mature males? that trade?

But the really extraordinary part is how calm and focused Tech has remained  must be tooo busy chatting up blonds, BTW tech / Boggo and others some nice charts and thanks.


----------



## biggles

NTW no not punish. Constructive criticism is fine but do we really need to have the same points again and again. Its just annoying clutter
I'm sure the people who have an interest in EW are very aware of the pitfalls and the counts are suggestions not black and white publicly made statements


----------



## Trembling Hand

biggles said:


> NTW no not punish. Constructive criticism is fine but do we really need to have the same points again and again. Its just annoying clutter
> I'm sure the people who have an interest in EW are very aware of the pitfalls and the counts are suggestions not black and white publicly made statements




Hey biggles,

Look on the bright side, this is for the other EW posters as well, at least there is lots of interest in this thread.  

All the knockers will soon move on to argue about house prices or dead cats or cartman's sanity. At least we know there's interest.


----------



## Cartman

Trembling Hand said:


> All the knockers will soon move on to argue about house prices or dead cats or cartman's sanity. At least we know there's interest.





i wanna know whos starting rumours i'm sane ----- now i'm *really* insulted !!


----------



## nunthewiser

Trembling Hand said:


> Hey biggles,
> 
> Look on the bright side, this is for the other EW posters as well, at least there is lots of interest in this thread.
> 
> All the knockers will soon move on to argue about house prices or dead cats or cartman's sanity. At least we know there's interest.




Looking forward to your thoughts in the dead cat thread shortly then....


----------



## tech/a

IFocus said:


> But the really extraordinary part is how calm and focused Tech has remained  must be tooo busy chatting up blonds, BTW tech / Boggo and others some nice charts and thanks.




An excellent pass time I can recommend it. Particularly if you can find one that makes sence. Fun all the same even if you cant!




>Apocalypto< said:


> Tech,
> 
> what are the three lines going though the price on the highs? (blue green and red)
> 
> do you think the 4 is complete now, in EW do you allow for minor thrusts?
> 
> Cheers





They are a proprietary indicator developed by AGET for their software.
They appear in Wave 4 moves only. Evidently they did extensive studies that showed that these 3 "timelines"
Blue Shortest
Green mid
Red longest
Display a characteristic which can be determinate on the severity of the wave 5 corrective move.
If the wave 5 starts from the Blue then there is an 80% chance (according to their studies which I cant verify) of the wave 5 being quick and severe.
60% at green and 40% at red.
The longer the wave 4 takes to play out the less Severe the wave 5 will be.
You will still get a wave 5 but its not likley to be a crash type move.

Looking at BHP then this is likely the scenerio.
A new low is unlikley and the final wave 5 is likley to be Slow and tedious.

This is the current analysis and until proven false you would be long expecting a wave 5 correction which will be as boring as hell and is likely 
around now to the 8th Purple and Blue Make or Break lines (MOB).


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Tech, Thanks for the info.

That's a very interesting way to look at the wave 4 !

cheers


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## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> And i reckon about 11:45 or 1:00 Monday will see the end of this little run. But If I'm wrong I'll have a much simpler way of reassessing than what i have seen from most on this thread.




Right on time!

CanOz


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## MRC & Co

CanOz said:


> Right on time!
> 
> CanOz




TH is a master of picking what the day will turn out to hold from the beginning.  Just reading his posts has allowed me to better this understanding myself.  Something seldom found in the trading world, let alone on a public forum.


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## CanOz

MRC & Co said:


> TH is a master of picking what the day will turn out to hold from the beginning.  Just reading his posts has allowed me to better this understanding myself.  Something seldom found in the trading world, let alone on a public forum.




Yeah, but c'mon, that must have surprised even him...although this market is acting independently from the US at the moment, so i guess if he could assume the market would do x from the way it finished on Friday then its reasonable.

Just to bring this back on topic, it did look like a corrective intraday move there and it finished up at about wave equality before the normal trading closed.

CanOz


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## MRC & Co

CanOz said:


> Yeah, but c'mon, that must have surprised even him...although this market is acting independently from the US at the moment, so i guess if he could assume the market would do x from the way it finished on Friday then its reasonable.
> 
> Just to bring this back on topic, it did look like a corrective intraday move there and it finished up at about wave equality before the normal trading closed.
> 
> CanOz




I think it would FAR from surprise him.  His read is impecable.  Something not seen too often even amongst the most seasoned professionals.  Perhaps ask him how many ticks he pulled today (I have no idea), but I bet it far superceeds most know it alls around here.  Yet, he is a troll, you won't find this kind of information in many places, far more than I can say for most junk written.  

Not sure what that last paragraph meant, wave equality?  We closed the gap in the opening minute and then saw poor performances put in globally, with some bad fundamental news thrown in to the mix.  We then false break the low near the close and as is expected, funds came in to defend the 600s in cash, rallying us above that into the close and auction.  A big buyer remained and artifically inflated our market in the post cash hours, which saw a big gap down into night SPI for those who held shorts.  All reasons to take trades and all profitable if you could manage to execute them.  Not too hard and probably a realistic depiction of todays action I would think.


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## tech/a

Well I was happy with todays grand and did bugger all,went to appointments,had 2---hr long meetings and finished the day Riding my bike home,all without 1 glance at DOM infact I dont even have it connected to IB.

Shouldnt be possible should it?

Oh and $500 to Joe will get a screen shot.
Hell I'm an arrogant toxic bastard.


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## nunthewiser

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH  now that was funny 


nice to see you have humour at least tech/a 

wot no lattees?


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## OzWaveGuy

*XAO*

The XAO appears to have started a small 5 waves down from last Friday, this implies a small upwards correction needs to follow (tomorrow?) before another 5 waves down to complete a zig-zag correction or something much bigger (to the downside).

The expanded flat scenario could be considered complete with a clear 3-3-5 wave structure, although the 'C' wave can still break the high made by the end of wave 'A'.

The Resource sector index (XMJ) looks very interesting as well. The XMJ has been correcting since the 21st Nov 08 (without making a new low like the XAO) and one can also read a much larger flat completing as well - with 5 small waves down from last Friday's high also.

A number of people on this thread had recently identified several stocks that appeared to finishing corrective patterns upwards. So now is certainly a time where the indexes can make a decent pullback or the resumption of the downtrend into a 5th wave (preferred scenario).


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## MRC & Co

tech/a said:


> Well I was happy with todays grand and did bugger all,went to appointments,had 2---hr long meetings and finished the day Riding my bike home,all without 1 glance at DOM infact I dont even have it connected to IB.
> 
> Shouldnt be possible should it?
> 
> Oh and $500 to Joe will get a screen shot.
> Hell I'm an arrogant toxic bastard.




I don't get the notion that you have to spend all day watching DOM, another misconception of those who don't understand it.

To get good at it, yes you do, but to get good at trading, you need to do those hours with any method. 

Some DOM traders do so for 30 minutes to a couple hours a day and can make huge money.  Infact, holding just 3 contracts short at 4:30pm would have banked you a grand alone.

Anyways, I'm not taking anything away from EW, simply my gripe with those criticisms and troll calling (from the ususal EW suspects) of guys with invaluable insights.  

On with your thread, sorry for the disruption.


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## OzWaveGuy

Following on from -->
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=415138&postcount=710

The last 2 days have seen the XAO correcting in a small expanded flat that isn't yet complete. Once finished, the XAO should head down to a previous wave 4 of 4 at 3400. After this, I'm still looking at two scenarios that could play out equally: Significant declines, or correcting upwards for several months.

Looking at the XMJ, it too has come to an important juncture that supports further declines or a continuing correction to the upside. Both scenarios appear in the chart, either a larger flat is playing out with a (B) wave downwards to now play out, or a double zig-zag correction upwards to finish the last leg upwards to wave 'B' circle. Like the XAO, the shorter term moves should reveal the direction over the next couple of weeks. 

My personal preference is that declines are needed on the XAO to finish 5 significant waves down from late 2007.

Cheers 

OWG


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## Chris45

Hi, I've just recently joined this forum and am very interested in this thread, being a longtime follower of Gann/Elliott theories and a user of AGET since the mid 90s, so I thought I'd make a tentative contribution.

I'm by no means an expert in any of this but our market seems to pulse to the Square of 9 dates quite well and we could have just seen the end of a 30 day  move up to Wave A, so I'm wondering if anyone else is now anticipating a move down to Wave B at about 3445 possibly on April 20?


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## Lachlan6

Looking at the S&P 500, I think the count that best synchs up at the moment is a running flat wave B, currently occuring. We would now be in the downward c part of this. Once this is complete, I would be looking for another strong move to take shape, probably up to the 945 area. This would give wave equality between the waves A and C. The big question then is, would that mark the end of the wave (4) and mark a consequent strong move lower in the final wave (5) or will we just be seeing the first stage of the larger upside correction and just be looking for a choppy move in a larger wave B back down.

We don't know the answer yet, the only way is once the action actually unfolds. So the way I am playing this is by looking at long positions as this Running Flat unfolds to look for a ride back up to the 945 area.


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## -Bevo-

Lachlan6 said:


> Looking at the S&P 500, I think the count that best synchs up at the moment is a running flat wave B, currently occuring. We would now be in the downward c part of this. Once this is complete, I would be looking for another strong move to take shape, probably up to the 945 area. This would give wave equality between the waves A and C. The big question then is, would that mark the end of the wave (4) and mark a consequent strong move lower in the final wave (5) or will we just be seeing the first stage of the larger upside correction and just be looking for a choppy move in a larger wave B back down.
> 
> We don't know the answer yet, the only way is once the action actually unfolds. So the way I am playing this is by looking at long positions as this Running Flat unfolds to look for a ride back up to the 945 area.




Elliott aside both daily and weekly charts look bearish to me, weekly shows a clear channel down and daily is showing bearish divergence using stoch, add to that comments recently from Faber and Soros suggest lower prices now, possibly the beginning of wave 5.


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## Chris45

Lachlan6 said:


> Once this is complete, I would be looking for another strong move to take shape, probably up to the 945 area. This would give wave equality between the waves A and C.




Yes and that would be consistent with a push back up to 4150ish on our market by May 21 or June 6 prior to the start of the final leg down. I wonder if anyone is watching the SPI Total? I've been finding it makes more sense than the others in this bear market and some of the calculations have worked out quite nicely. Eg, the recent bottom (090306,3102) was only 4 pts off the calculated 1.618 extension level and the date was spot on.


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## biggles

Hey biggles,
Look on the bright side, this is for the other EW posters as well, at least there is lots of interest in this thread.  
All the knockers will soon move on to argue about house prices or dead cats or cartman's sanity. At least we know there's interest.

Sad!!!!!!
I think they just got worn out by the knockers and have moved on.
I'm cross with ASF, good thing was wrecked


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## tech/a

Seems T/H has set a new standard for proof of outlandish (or seemingly) claims of success.



> Well in my eye you might as well not bothered with this drivel.
> 
> Would of been ten thousand times more effective to just post your broker statements showing real evidence of your claimed success. But I'm sure you have many a reason why we will not see them.[]/quote]
> 
> 
> I have to agree there are some stupid claims made.
> 
> For those who seem to have problems with Elliott and VSA (Which I use) todays open and closed trade results.
> 
> But T/H I think if questioned a $500 donation should go to Joe should proof be forth coming.
> Sorts out the charf and helps Joe along if the charf proves to be a teak master piece.


----------



## nunthewiser

Yes totally agree 

i too turned 1000 into 10000000000 in 4 days with the use of my awesome hindsightingly trading system 

please forward your $500 to joe asap 

here i s my proof


tues $1000

wed $ 50000

thurs 1trillion



thankyou


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## tech/a

nunthewiser said:


> Yes totally agree
> 
> i too turned 1000 into 10000000000 in 4 days with the use of my awesome hindsightingly trading system
> 
> please forward your $500 to joe asap
> 
> here i s my proof
> 
> 
> tues $1000
> 
> wed $ 50000
> 
> thurs 1trillion
> 
> 
> 
> thankyou





Why bother posting this Nun?
Whats the point?


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## nunthewiser

tech/a said:


> Why bother posting this Nun?
> Whats the point?





LOL was actually wondering about why you posted your post ?

did you want a badge ?

was no other reason for it that i could see

no one was claiming anything in this thread


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## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Seems T/H has set a new standard for proof of outlandish (or seemingly) claims of success.
> 
> But T/H I think if questioned a $500 donation should go to Joe should proof be forth coming.
> Sorts out the charf and helps Joe along if the charf proves to be a teak master piece.




Not sure I know what you are getting at. Does that mean the average punter will have to risk giving up $500 bucks every time they want to question someones claim?


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## beamstas

Let's not turn this thread into a pissing contest 

Brad


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## Rusty99

beamstas said:


> Let's not turn this thread into a pissing contest
> 
> Brad




Yeah  - who can piss with an Elliot Wave ??


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## tech/a

> Well in my eye you might as well not bothered with this drivel.
> 
> Would of been ten thousand times more effective to just post your broker statements showing real evidence of your claimed success. But I'm sure you have many a reason why we will not see them.




This was T/H's post on the Gann thread.
But rather than stuff up this thread I'll start another.

"Trading Claims."
In the General area.


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## globalreverb

I have used EW in the traditional manner in my trading analysis for some time now. Lately I have adopted what is probably an unorthordox method of using EW, in that I scan for and trade only IM wave 3's and ZZ wave C's.
The reason being that they are both Impulses, and more importantly these Impulse patterns follow a prior Impulse and Corrective pattern. This methodology reduces my risk considerably, ( when I get the count right) because as sure as night follows day, an impulse has to follow a prior impulse and corrective pattern. I've probably oversimplified my explanation, but in essence this is how I trade.

Cheers R.


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## kotim

I have attached a weekly chart of westfield, tome its a good reasonably basic example of elliot wave 2 correction and wave 4 alternated, wave 3 was 1.618 of wave 1, and wave 5 extened, with the blue line being 1-1, my understanding is that an extended wave 5 means overdone and there is a strong tendancy to retrace at least to the bottom of the wave 1. 

Anybody got a different view than me.

thanks


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## tech/a

Noticed that both BHP chart and XAO chart have pretty well ben proven correct.
Correction on time as well.
Shorts for now.


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## Boggo

Wave C's all round on the gold stocks


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## globalreverb

Kotim,  Just looking at your Westfield weekly chart, at first glance it looks like a classic Impulse down. However the Impulse 5 waves down are negated simply because wave 4 cannot enter  the price territory of wave 1, which it does. 
So what you have displayed is not an impulse. I don't have access to Aussie stock charts, so I cannot analyse more of the chart other than what I see. The other thing to remember when applying Elliott is that your count must commence from a major/significant high/low.

If when looking at what appears to be an impulsive move, it is a good thing to also try to identify the internal count of the move. i.e. a smaller degree.
Therefore, if the move is indeed impulsive the internals should show a five wave in the wave 1 and ditto for wave 3 and wave 5. At least one of the impulsive legs of the larger degree Impulse should show these internal waves, and in so doing, add credence to the accuracy of the count.

So, after all this, I believe that there are three wave moves in all of the five waves, thus rendering this move as either a triple zig zag, or a triple three.

A good spot all the same. 
Cheers, R


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## OzWaveGuy

A small project that I thought may provide some interest for those who follow elliott or are interested in the ebb and flows of the stock market.


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## chrislp

Nice work OzWaveGuy, thanks for that.


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## Porper

For those interested in the Elliott Wave principle in it's most simple form the chart below is a good example of what to look out for.

Notice how all the upward moves have been corrective in nature until the last one from late October, which is clearly a five wave impulse.

It is a complex correction from mid March with no signs of a turnaround until recently.
If the analysis is correct we should soon see a retracement to around $3.60-$3.70. If there is support around this area we should see a strong reversal and third wave push up. Always look for confirmation before jumping on.

The stock is DOM and the analysis above is for educational value to those genuinely interested in Elliott Wave only.


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## joeyr46

Porper said:


> For those interested in the Elliott Wave principle in it's most simple form the chart below is a good example of what to look out for.
> 
> Notice how all the upward moves have been corrective in nature until the last one from late October, which is clearly a five wave impulse.
> 
> It is a complex correction from mid March with no signs of a turnaround until recently.
> If the analysis is correct we should soon see a retracement to around $3.60-$3.70. If there is support around this area we should see a strong reversal and third wave push up. Always look for confirmation before jumping on.
> 
> The stock is DOM and the analysis above is for educational value to those genuinely interested in Elliott Wave only.




Possible alternative count is the five is wave C of an inverted flat both need a correction from here so will soon play out and we will see


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## pavilion103

I've just started learning Elliott Wave. For me it seems that what helps me most at the moment is identifying triangle patterns. I've read that these mainly appear in Wave 4. Is this way of doing things useful? Or should I be looking for certain other things first?


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## tech/a

All good.PAV


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## xioxxio

Advanced GET is fantastic software for EW.  I see a bunch of people are using it in this tread.

http://www.esignal.com/advancedget/default.aspx


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## pavilion103

To some of the VSA guys,

I haven't spent a whole lot of time applying EW as yet, but intend read up on it and test it's usefulness. 

Is one of the best waves to identify Wave 1, by looking for the end of a downtrend, seeing accumulation and a base forming and then a break upwards? Do Wave 1s usually commence from accumulation/distribution areas?


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## joea

pavilion103 said:


> To some of the VSA guys,
> 
> I haven't spent a whole lot of time applying EW as yet, but intend read up on it and test it's usefulness.
> 
> Is one of the best waves to identify Wave 1, by looking for the end of a downtrend, seeing accumulation and a base forming and then a break upwards? Do Wave 1s usually commence from accumulation/distribution areas?




Pav.
Wave 1 comes from "short covering".
Once the buying subsides, Wave 2 begins with a very strong round of selling(or buying for bearish pattern), however the selling is not enough to bring the stock to the beginning of Wave 1 , so forming a higher low.
When the stops are taken out on wave 3 the institutional buying comes in.
This is an Elliott explanation. You do not see Wave 1 as(a wave 1) initially, as EW is subjective.(i.e. some gray areas).
The VSA guys, maybe tech/a may  describe a sequence from VSA that best covers this area. i.e. SOS and SOW.

I was just making this comment to show, that as Elliott explain it one way, then VSA will explain the same event with their reasoning.
However it will be a series of  events explained in a slightly different(better) way.

I think most serious traders will be looking forward to how Tech/a is going to integrate all the different bits together on the "sticky" thread he has set up.

One thing I do know is that a "big light" is going to come on for a lot of people, even some of the serious traders. What Tech/a will compile is how the bits fit together, for the best outcome,(KISS) & (profitability), and explain the smart money. I also think the rubbish bins in some offices will get more attention by the time the thread is completed.

Also we should understand that this will be the first forum that someone (with Joe's support) has undertaken to put forward such a thread. (i.e. so it does not get lost in discussion). Moderators at other forums have never been interested.(It has to come from one person only) Pixel may confirm this.

You will also find (IMO) that more guests to this forum will probably stay.
joea


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## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> To some of the VSA guys,
> 
> I haven't spent a whole lot of time applying EW as yet, but intend read up on it and test it's usefulness.
> 
> Is one of the best waves to identify Wave 1, by looking for the end of a downtrend, seeing accumulation and a base forming and then a break upwards? Do Wave 1s usually commence from accumulation/distribution areas?




PAV

My use of EW maybe a little different than most.
Right now in most things it's counting corrective waves so as far as I'm concerned you might as well be trying to complete a Rubics Cube one handed and blind folded.

I personally like to consider Elliot when I see a confluence of stocks and indexes clearly showing counts the same or very similar
Like end of wave 5 s bull or bearish and in particular Wave 3s where markets are at their strongest.

Other than that if it's not as clear as a mirror( the count) then I don't consider it.
The worst thing you can do is force a count to suit your bias.
You should never have a bias.


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## joea

Hi
Some of the post on this forum refer to the length of a particular impulse wave(1,3 or 5)
of the 5 wave Elliott.
Length should not be mistaken for strength.

I have attached a page from "The Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook on Elliott"
It shows the 3 combinations of the length of the Impulse waves.
Sorry about the opening of the file as I have a "rocket scientist" tampering with my computer.
joea


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## minwa

Some interesting info I came across on EW and Gann:

Quote from an interview in Traders Mag by Larry Williams -
"I am not wild about the technical stuff. I believe that most of it is not useful and some of it actually fraud - like Gann and Elliott."


At a trading conference, Alexander Elder made it a point to mention that R.N. Elliott died a relatively poor man. 

Alex Elder also had a few words to say about Gann. Apparently, Elder met with Gann's son, who said that his father had been unable to support his family by trading. Instead, Gann earned his living by writing and selling instructional courses. 

From Hulbert's Financial Digest, November 2003, for the Elliott Wave Theorist (Prechter's newsletter): "The HFD reports a 19.1% annualized loss from the beginning of 1985 through 10/31/03 for a portfolio that went long or short in hypothetical shares of the Wilshire on this letter’s advice for traders, and otherwise earned the T-Bill rate. Buying and holding, in contrast, gained 12.7% annualized." You will notice that Prechter's website does not contain this kind of performance data.


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## Porper

minwa said:


> From Hulbert's Financial Digest, November 2003, for the Elliott Wave Theorist (Prechter's newsletter): "The HFD reports a 19.1% annualized loss from the beginning of 1985 through 10/31/03 for a portfolio that went long or short in hypothetical shares of the Wilshire on this letter’s advice for traders, and otherwise earned the T-Bill rate. Buying and holding, in contrast, gained 12.7% annualized." You will notice that Prechter's website does not contain this kind of performance data.




Although Prechter brought The Wave Theory back to life he hasn't done it any favours over the years. Problem is he makes a call and will never admit to being wrong. He's called  DOW to 500 - 1000 for donkey's years...and still is calling it to make those lows. No credibility...and I use Elliott Wave a lot.

As for Elliott himself, he was well-off until he was taken ill and couldn't work anymore. I don't think he was exactly poor when he died from what I can remember reading; and I have read all his books I can lay my hands on.


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## rimtas

Guys, don't be ridiculous about Elliot and Prechter. If you know how Formula 1 car is build and how to operate it, this doesn't mean that you will win the race, or that you will reach at least the end of first lap without a crash.
Trading and analysing markets are two different things. 
Trading involves a battle with yourself once you in a trade but analysing markets is much easier if you don't put your money on the table.

Saying that Elliot died poor doesn't prove anything. Probably he just hadn't his balls  tough enough to press the buy button and spend his life just sitting near the screen(o tape at that time) and wondering what a beautiful beast the market is.

And Prechter is not a trader. He is a remarkable mind when it comes to understanding and pointing ties between the market and the rest of the society. He just started a Socionomic Institute, a new revolutionary science of human social behaviour and I believe it has a good future because it is joined by most smartest scientists on the planet and they are growing rapidly. A few universities even offer a degree in Socionomics which proves that EW is starting to gain more solid ground. 
What we need is that an old generation of economic theories  will die along with these old economists and step by step a new understanding of human social behaviour will take over in a years to come.  Forecasting markets using economic and fundamental reasoning is wrong, those two things doesn't relate one to each other. 
Markets do not operate like most of people think, they have their own life and they gave a **** on the company results, fundamentals factors or natural and man made disasters. It is just our neocortex wants to find a tie between market movements and news as it seems logical. There is no logic there, only animal spirits.


----------



## rimtas

And by the way, a few words about Hulberts Financial Digest-they ranked Prechters newsletter as having the bad performance, but the truth is that Prechter does not give trading recommendations, so these guys just making their own assumptions...  
What Financial  Digest actually missed is that Elliot Wave International is the _worlds largest_ market forecasting firm, beating in its revenues such giants like Goldman Sacs , JP Morgan and other financial institutions who also provide forecasting services. People do not pay money for a scam, and for decades. There is something truly good in there about markets. 

I was a subscriber also, but now I am so good at EW that I do not need expert's advice anymore how to interpret waves. Though from time to time I still buy something from them as they have extremely good information that you couldn't get anywhere else, or even if you can, you will spend hours on the net just to look for it and then summarising and applying to markets. Why waste your time if you can get it in a minute for 20 bucks.


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## Porper

rimtas said:


> the truth is that Prechter does not give trading recommendations.




Rubbish. When I was a subscriber, probably 3 or 4 years ago he said go short the DOW 200%!! Great call. He has been saying go short ever since. I.M.O he gives Elliott a bad name.



rimtas said:


> I was a subscriber also, but now I am so good at EW that I do not need expert's advice anymore how to interpret waves.




Nothing I can say to that...except you lack confidence


----------

