# Joules MM1 Blog



## Joules MM1 (24 October 2009)

"all the info you need is in the bars, at all levels of time....."

this is what i have been taught as the starting point and the basis of all trade decisions.....

to supplement that, i found these websites to be interesting, not so much as a way of decision making, rather, as a way of finding actuality versus opine.....remembering that all trade decisions are current until complete and not executed in hindsight ....some data are useful in context, however, that data is usually already within the price bars as they unfurl and the bars ratify (or verify) what is in the data and the not the other way around which opposes what i most commonly see in forums and chat rooms......maybe a little like circular breathing....all the information i need is in the price bars.....

check them out anyways

http://sigmabands.blogspot.com/
http://www.wwfn.com/crashupdate.html
http://www.pivotfarm.com/
http://technicalindicators.com/stockmarket.htm
http://www.verticalsolutions.co/forecasts.html
http://www.freestockcharts.com/ (i do use this one for spx volume only)
http://www.advfn.com
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/
http://markettells.com/ 

sigmabands is a blog and you should read up the original Hurst work so you can context the blog.....the parent site is a paid subscription....ive posted all free data except markettells which is a subscription site for US futures big picture......


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## Joules MM1 (26 November 2009)

a good time to be closed in a long closed index pos and short sold the same index.....the xjo looks like it will complete a squaring with head and shoulders thingome......the spx is currently testing the bottom of the side channel as i type this and i suspect that there'll be a concerted effort to force psychology downward to set-up  a buy into the new year.....gold is on the boil for a lot of talking heads and Terry Laundry shows a strong bullish T scenario whiles Bobby jnr shows why there is good deflationary reason that gold should sink in a contra to the usd as the recent re-inflation of credit debt rolls over......the dow has made a final higher high against a back drop of a weak rut and bkx/xlf sector.....the djta index is not confirmative of anything atm......this current period has many hallmarks of distribution but not a lead into a major trend change......


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## Joules MM1 (26 November 2009)

the xjo has aligned its futures peel away with the ftse and spx with no opening games from the uk players suggests we'll have a few days before the accummulation phase restarts.......in the meantime a strong cash build-up.....

att is the confluent view i have currently for the xjo


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## Joules MM1 (26 November 2009)

the 4150/4155 as shown in the cfd is a squaring zone and there are a couple of other factors but not to get to naval staring the flow needs to be confirmed


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## Joules MM1 (26 November 2009)

looking for 1070 spx to cover.....i'll need to see a divergence in the adv/dec although, as the adv/dec stands now, i see divergence that supports an intermediate move downward.....at the least 1070


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## Joules MM1 (27 November 2009)

the thanksgiving days futures massacre is almost realised and my target of 1070 on the spx is but 4 points away.....interesting how so many forums are so bullish about the moves in the cash and that probably means they arent currently aware of the futures moves.........taken some small plays on the aud/usd which looks to be negative to .77 for the nearest channel target over the next few weeks...........


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## Joules MM1 (2 December 2009)

http://simon-gillis.blogspot.com/2009/11/comparing-great-depression-with-current.html

http://www.coveritlive.com/index.ph...&altcast_code=cfe98e6461&height=600&width=600

http://bit.ly/YPl7r 
tradingtheodds


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## Joules MM1 (27 April 2012)

been several months since i played on the dax, so, time to get wet with tiny size as its on a gap down on nefarious news, boj qe news....daily context strong trend....the gap looks complete with a test, first solid hook with changed character of transactions, new players enter, during same time frame gold is showing clear distinct plays be several groups short term and long term players getting marginal swings in the chop, now real sign that liquidity is shrinking just at work in usual size on size game.....several fib ratios pop straight out again suggesting different groups entering, doing business and leaving no real dominance......at the dax low i see that play so the context comes into focus, time to be long and look to for price to at least engage the high of the fib measurements, thus, two trigger reasons aside from the how the price is unfolding as we're in price territory that i've seen and my risk on the low side is good for long  entrance with clear exit now that i've established a low in gold which also looks like opportunity plays finished for this time of the day.....also, as a btw, the XJO sydney team did not dump, key signature and the SPX looks to have overshot the opportunity to clean house of stop-sells below......amongst many things these are the thoughts for the plays, doesnt matter if theyre 10 zeros or no zeros the game doesnt change so my size in this is not the point, the trade i the point and especially the dax as i've tended to shy away from it for a long time.....
the purpose of this blog note is simply a thought process, ignore the other trades, theyre just listed to show that the trades exist (so far today anyways) and i've finished for the day on the dax, income is inline with the risk and tiny size used at $55.82 over 64 minutes ......i find if i am going to add size best to do it once trend is (re)established or i can cleanly see a game being played either for acc or distribution.....just trading "flow" without either the right data such as the dom is fairly silly unless i can line up a lot of ducks in a row......so todays trades (thus far) are all 5-10 sec + 3/15/30/120 min and daily charts no indicators only addition was some ratios from inverted/extention fibs and only as risk profile not for aggressive positioning.....i dont call this scalping or call it anything other than reading intent......thus far my open plays on gold and spx look strong......so i have two time frames i'm often playing and one is the dominant trend and the other is lowest time frame chop that clearly sits within the context of the frame and i can exit without being stranded......yesterdays trades are on twitter

thus far you can see i still BTO 20 SPX at 1396.81  + BTO 5 XJO 4386 both being part of daily profile and i shall have those over the weekend, other data unknown.......

so the purpose is just to show two things from a beginners pov, first, tiny size gives you supreme control and allows to experience live trades with low risk and with control you gain confidence by diarising the plays and rehearsing them over and over....basic Steenbarger ideas in that......you know, i used to argue for demo accounts but theyre all lacking in some way and there's no sub for the real trade set-up forcing you to get correct focus......also replaying a realtime event or series of events that the brain can comprehend replaces in huge spades compared to a simulated version because of the dynamic.....
	

		
			
		

		
	







even tho these are tiny live trades they represent ideas to consider and to think of new questions on.......


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## Joules MM1 (27 April 2012)

edit: this sentence "swings in the chop, now real sign that liquidity is shrinking just at work..." 

should read

"... *no* real sign that liquidity is shrinking just at work"


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## Joules MM1 (27 April 2012)

similar deal, with a dominant with-trend pos playing the lower time frame to capture swings against the trend as they re-align with the trend with the major idea coming from intra market views....obviously in isolation this is diff game with much higher risk


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## Joules MM1 (4 May 2012)

http://www.moneyshow.com/video/VideoNetwork/100/8103/Why-Algorithms-Arent-Your-Enemy/


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## ishakeel (4 May 2012)

Thanks for sharing.


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## Joules MM1 (6 May 2012)

this was meant to be a reply post to an FX trade and chart posted today, however, i think in the interest of good manners (or maybe to avoid a dust-up) i've put it here ....posting in this blog is purely thinking outloud



> how is this dangerous for "newbies" or even "oldbies"
> 
> the main reason for the danger is, first, there is no 50% Pisano Fibonacci measure, secondly, a 50% pullback is typical for many traders to exit on, for new sells to come in and drown accummulation, it's a common ground , thirdly once a Fibonacci is broken it's usually a continuation signal, the level gets broken, a small retest and then back in the same direction of the break, fourthly, your Fib appears to be applied generically and upside-down(why 23.6 when 27.2 triggers more often etc) so you are not looking to fit any other rmeasure, fifth, you are more likely to find the resistance by looking for the extension measure of 75040 to 78698 and applying that to the low, sixth, if you have to use a regime such as a Fib then may as well apply the Elliott as well, oh yay, a five wave decline with an overlapping target of the underside of wave one down by a fourth wave bounce with typical ABCDE characterisitics and maybe you'll find Fib measures in those too......lol......finally, maybe get rid of some of those tram tracks so you can actually concentrate on the (historic) picture in front of you
> 
> ...




USD/ZAR


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## Joules MM1 (9 May 2012)

spot trades pre US cash open.....looking for ratio'd low and completion of transition from weak shorters to swing longs


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## Joules MM1 (16 May 2012)




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## Joules MM1 (16 May 2012)

after clicking the bar above the jpeg, go control key and scroll the mouse wheel to enlarge


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## Joules MM1 (18 May 2012)

http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/execs180512interim.jpg
http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/execs180512interimii.jpg
http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/execs180512interimiii.jpg
http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/execs180512interimiv.jpg
http://i766.photobucket.com/albums/xx309/joulesmm1/execs180512interimv.jpg

slowly improving the alpha......just 3 drawdowns today on the xjo on 160 trades .....for the sake of mentioning, no, this is not a sim account.....i prefer tiny size for less distraction....i like to ride the silver contract on the back of momentum on spot gold and i have a wide range play on spot so the inside plays are purely pick n roll the smaller time frames while keeping a plan on the daily......the more i even think that stuff the more i'm moving to single tiny trades for safey.....the smaller the trade the smaller the time frame the safer my game seems to get.....happy bout that......


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## Joules MM1 (18 May 2012)

http://s766.photobucket.com/home/joulesmm1/set/59919

 .....have the machine back soon that has camtasia .....that'll be better for fine tuning...._then_ the hardwork begins.......


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## Joules MM1 (18 May 2012)

yes, with each fib broken, i'm thinking this looks like a set-up to sell into a divergent low.....really shake the tree.....and the eye sees what the brain tells it to look for and this is what i saw while summarising todays trades so far.......just leapt off the page.....broad ideas


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## Joules MM1 (19 May 2012)

sad faces for some after the stagging of the most anticipated stock  release since famed tech years with an open at the price high and close at the absolute low, big red candle day....

a quick anecdotal around the generics shows a TRIN complacent without a screaming buy signal relative to recent declines on a 10 day basis while being oversold on the day itself hinting at least a 1 to 2 days of buying, probably starting monday as it's mutual funds buying day, but, that's the pros at the open, so after the first hour on monday all eyes firmly on any more drift through the monthly 12sma or a follow-through bear trap....
and watching the TED which is bullish liquidity side for credit debt expansion.....curious..normally, upon a major sell signal, there is an accompanying signal from the TED and that's not there right now, which is a buy-the-dip idea but it's a big ship to steer.....everything from the cumulative NYAD adv/dec to the number of nyse stocks running below their 200 m/a continues to grow, heading south again hinting that we need to trap a few bears to get some upward momentum......frankly, running stops and trapping weak shorts looks like the only game to lift price right now regardless of any intrinsic/fundamental fair value, which we appear to be at for the s&p500....the overlapping nature of the xjo also has the hallmarks of a very large interruption a downtrend, that's incomplete.....Joe Glanville came out and said, just prior to the recent upleg, that history showed a major lack of participation just prior to a major decline and he had history and data on his side so maybe he was a just a tad early.....dow theory calls for a retest of the highs in both the spx and the TRANs of which one must fail to make a new high to call in a sell signal......my fave still sits with a close below the montlhy 12 sma and a failed retest of that for a bear market to be confirmed and that's a multi week task......a few (more) ducks need to line up before we declare new bear phase or a resumption of the secular bear market.....i'll be looking to see how the SML index reacts to the 200 m/a are the fundees buying off that trigger and how the XFL bounces back from the 2.5% trouncing on friday....prior to the recent declines the SPXA50R was failing to make new highs and a clear divergence showing....the reason i am focused on that is simply that if i put all the technicals of say the SPY and GOLD and 30/10 year studies to the side, i am left with who is actually lifting the markets and if the power is lacking across the board then we simply need to come south for a while to regain/restart the upside.....sell the highs buy the lows + go down to get up......simple.....

am inclined to think we should do a few large rotations while liquidity begins to swap sides as a standard market fair.....it is afterall an auction of values, at least, the idea of value.....this means (i'm thinking outloud for my own planning) that no reaching for a one-sided game unless we get a clean break a 100 points below fridays close with a strong reversal in the TED to confirm the mar 09 up-phase is complete, otherwise a large swapping of positions is the go for the next 'few' weeks.....the major sword hanging over everyones head is the SX7P chart....oh, yeah  that needs to find a low soon-azz !

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui 
*TED, TRAN, TRIN, NYAD, SPXA50R, SPXA200R*

Market Watch charts  
*SX7P and XLF*

if your reading this blog and dont know the codes please google them for an educational pov

for TRIN select thick line and the 10 sma
for TED select candles
for Tran select candles
for NYAD select cumulative


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## Joules MM1 (1 June 2012)

i have retaken s/s's on gold and silver on the lower exit signal of the EDW on gold although the silver contract appeared to ahve missed it's final high .......looks a tad weak.......we shall see.......stop is topside the EDW line........we may come back up and kiss the underside of the wedge


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## Joules MM1 (1 June 2012)

s/s x 2 + 1559

01/06/12
the break down hasnt occurred the way i thought ....how  unusual : .....if we meander down and not conclusively through the lower level then i'll consider the move a sucker set-up for cheap supply .....an impulsive buy back through 1565 would take me out but i'd need to see a session close above the 1579 to get long and that's likely to be swift based on the open interest


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## Joules MM1 (1 June 2012)

1553 target just hit based on the first rejection from the break-down from the pimple high through the base of the EDW so now i need to see a break through of 1552 prior to the NFP release to know if this is not a fishing expedition and we are genuinely selling

the 1553 level is the 100% break-down target as per the first chart


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## Joules MM1 (1 June 2012)

as the HSI and XJO rally mostly from short covering thus far.....gold is holding steady 

here's a good reason not to be invested in the downside persepctive

video

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/0...sitions-major-rally-fuel-for-gold-silver.html


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## Joules MM1 (2 June 2012)

16 points given back, initially, being spectacularly wrong on gold move and all that short covering is unlikely to look back with every theorist and his dog saying get your shot-gun and tinned beef ready......don't forget the fluro jacket so the other extremists dont accidentally shoot you too.....still, second thoughts maybe leave the fluro's in the cellar ..... 

att is the SPX tech jibba jabba measure which calls for a low on friday to make a base on monday ......what's also interesting is exactly the same measured thrust in the SML which i think is a near-term bullish signal to ignore the clamour of media and chat sites calling for ultimate doom and listen to price alone.......

as a side thought; there is a misnomer, or, an implied misnomer, that for every buyer there is a seller, which, implies, for every single person that buys there is an equal single seller ......
i think the correct thought is this;
for every account that sells there is an account that buys and one account may soak up several single-person sells on a low (acc) and one account may sell to several single-person accounts on a high (dist) and as one brit trader once said to me "youre  job is to recognise when price has changed as it changes and consider who did that"

..... right now i need to know who might be buying all that selling.......

here's some index piccy att's as the updating for jpeg's in the ASF blog section is not quite finished:

SPX thrust

sml thrust

looking for the SML index to make a strong base on monday if the indecies are basically  tracking each other then the implications are fairly clear depending on your bent, in that, if they track together they fall together and on the flip side if they track they can also build on strength......yep, it's either a buy or a sell and nothing in between......funny that....


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## Joules MM1 (2 June 2012)

this is my thinking and i welcome any juxtaposing.....i know there's a lot of traders who have other ideas about this......

the point of the time measurement is NOT to find a holy grail.....the point is to validate a target and time is a measure the same way that price is a measure, in that, they are measureable in the present are derived directly of themselves because of their endogenous activity and at some point they'll (i postulate, obviously) converge or make agreement of change in direction or imply that at this point in terms of BOTH price and time something different is going to happen and that people who want that change of direction can input their intent and that enough transactions have been exhausted in one direction and are now, at this point, at this level, at this time, about to be swamped by the opposite action in the auction process........your honour!

so, what's the difference between me claiming validity of the time equality versus, say, an indicator? firstly it's just like price, either selling or buying, up or down, it's really saying beyond this point i am wrong to be long, right to be short, or, confirmation that we have maxed out the sentiment for some and played into the hands of others and the measures (price and time) do not veer away from the very thing that makes them move in real time (people, duh!) 

if i'm only using the measures as an aggressive move to be short, in this instance, that is dangerous, however, if i'm using the measures to get defensive at the low then, in reality, i have much stronger risk ratio case to trade on, in other words, the exact measures in time and price are so distinctive* as to give precise* be long this level and protect with a stop directly below and with a break of this level consider being short......

this is really about management of an idea, the trade is an idea, all trades are simply ideas, applied.......any  measure is merely a permission, as a filip, i'm interested in any idea that deals with immediacy and price/time measures do not imply anything they simply measure, they do not lag and are of themselves in origin, they are original in that sense........_now_ my head hurts........

* in both the SML and SPX the measure is less than 1 point in discrepancy.....most likely due to my inept drawing technique than the mathematic....... :

price and time are of people, resultant.....they "print" as a direct result of activity of people .....the time component is always active just like price and i offer options expiration, front months rolls, news annocs set-ups, quarterly dressings, earnings dates, religious sabaths, statutory days closed, ad nauseum as daily activity ......so, how does this not get reduced to the smallest time frame, afterall, what is a culmination, a climax, an exhaustion, if not with a time component? .......if anything, this is the antithesis of theory or grail finds......

other than price and time, everything else that might appear on a chart, or print, is a direct result of or is a filter and a distortion of it's origin.......

my job is to tell the story of the next price bar.....a dom can give insight into weight of activity, into fakes, pendings, defensive plays, ice berg orders, whatever......they assist in telling the story of the next bar, or next price level......the trader still has to opine on the next price level, clearly, other than time there is no component of price that has the immediacy regardless if youre a scalper or a end of day player

a lot of traders get hit because they are distracted by something other than price, so, time is the least of all evils in my humble opinion.....when a trader is distracted by a moving average they are not connected to the story of the next bar they are connected, in focus, to what is happening to the m/a, they are telling the story of the m/a and while i agree that the m/a is merely the permission to take a trade it is like passing the ball to the other player first before you kick the goal even tho youre standing directly in front of goal with no one to stop you........


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## Joules MM1 (9 June 2012)

great for new stock traders



great for new futures traders

[video]http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_gilbert_researches_happiness.html[/video]

FT71 in discussion on dom comp


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## Joules MM1 (19 June 2012)

easy peezy cheesy.....when tradings thin, these set-ups suddenly appear ....a careful study of this action can figure out what has really happened .....nice work......better than live theatre.....and we sing, this is the way we hook the shmucks, hook the shmucks, hook the shmucks, another set of numpteeeeezzzz


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## Joules MM1 (20 June 2012)

nice effort






> Cry Havoc! And slip the dogs of war



 Bill or Bacon

Havoc is derived from the word pillage


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## Joules MM1 (12 July 2012)

playing mostly short side of this aspect......on an hourly basis a simple triangle idea with 5 components all with the same sell signatures with the nearest impulsive thrusts coming from news releases creating distribution opportunities.....not withstanding that money managers are nett short and commercials are at their lowest short pos's compared to 2008 (that doesnt imply theyre building long pos as there's clearly not pushing of the bid)
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 in both gold and silver it would appear that retail is caught long and about to be forced to give up their pos's and then the commercials are likely to step in and force the money managers to cover extreme shorts......

the gold tri idea may require another leg up 1608-1614 zone before finally letting go...... a daily close below 1559 would put the shorters back in the driving seat with 1427-1430 as min target if this area gives way over the next few hours..... ....


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## Joules MM1 (13 July 2012)

as Cadel struggles up the slope, Wiggins has another aussie assist him in keeping the yellow jersey for another day, watching gold move across the 1559 level and  three crosses that aint sposed to occur, instead of momentum kicking in there's clear exit of shorts termination signals......when these transactions occur at a technical level it's usually a trap.....better tp trade the flow ya know than the news spike that's going to kill ......if gold spikes up on news again it's most likely going to be a sell opportunity.....


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## Joules MM1 (18 July 2012)

the tri picture in recent blog for gold remains in play with downside target of 1427-30 and the inverted head/shoulders for SPX continues to make range heading for min 1409-1420 (adj from 1414-1420)

i am short gold again given the back ground of todays action not only fits the pattern of the tri in threes so much as the lack of upside power (thus far) from commericals ......i suspect we need that one more low to create a large percentage value area since the altime high and we'll likely need to get through most of earnings season too....no doubt the lack of upside swing from the bernanks comments today upon which most talking heads were sure that a hint a t another QE would bring a stampede of buyers......well, they _are_ the stampede of buyers, already!

the base of the active tech tri traverses 1558 and if i dont see a similar effort that evented last week where i took out my short then i'll be adding there and no doubt a few others are going to be watching that same level......

triple bottoms?......yeah, right !!

gold is one of the few instruments that can climb on techs that call for lower lows and still fulfill the req'd signals at higher lows......a slippery sucker....a move above 1601.6 would have me review the whole downside idea......there's plenty of small swings to play along the way


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## Joules MM1 (20 July 2012)

as per blog post 12/07/12 ....gold is breaking down basic levels and now needs to hold 1568 ......if this breaks then i can finally call the E wave and look for the tri to break and add momo......


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## Joules MM1 (25 July 2012)

at 1568 i got the break i was looking for and like previous occasions enough buying came in at the death-nell to force covering (me included) and take prices back into the major vpoc zone........since then, treading water awaiting fed-numpty to pull the pin (this is the fed-numpty who arent happy with the pace of things in the us ....as if they can effect any real change...) so comments in the last 48 hours have assisted a slow burn up and once we cross through and keep above 1614 overnight then likely we'll keep going and nirvana for gold bugs will come at last.......or will it?

spx has held the last line of defense so far for the inverse h/s scenario and i'm long at 1331......the local xjo looked like being bought soon after making the low today and if that inverse play keeps on track we may attain 4375......

that's the hourly perspective right now.......i'll be interested to see how this reads in two weeks from now......


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## Joules MM1 (3 August 2012)

this triangle thing keeps making new ground......

cupla interesting things:

circled wave A is 70% of wave C 

within circled wave C the a is 100% of c (equality)

we have proportionate threes, that is, if you look at the patterning all the moves in threes are currently within reasonable same-size degrees of trend
all the b's within each move carry the hook hall-marks of distribution

the first two impulsive attempts to buy up price (waves a and c of circled A) looked the right goods but became overlapped and called into  question the 1526 low as a buyers opportunity......we are extremely compressed and this is the best time to wait for those other people who live on another planet to move price before committing to a large bet on direction

we are yet to finish wave D circled and then a sharp hook wave E circled upward.......the E is unlikely to play ball the same way, likely to be news driven (when isnt gold news driven these days?)

a news driven price is an anathema to a healthy uptrend and commensurate with an interruption to trend unfortunately it is also a foundation of bounces (that look like the real deal) in a downtrend

all this suggests we have some more downside to go, target dependent where exactly the triangle is exited

currently, any impulsive move and weekly hold above 1626 would bring in the alternate count for this regime .....a close below 1563 would cement the downside requiring only an overnight hold to satisfy the short sell

there's no clear evidence to suggest that anything other than a sudden rash of buying by Commercials with short covering by money managers is going to resolve this malady

as a bonus, once this triangle is complete there should be a clear target and the move down should be swift......good news for bulls, get this stuff done with!


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## Joules MM1 (5 August 2012)

quick review

zero's death cross
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10488&page=33&p=718417#post718417

the long play i first began to work (where i am more likely to hold a 24 hour trade
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10488&page=32&p=715047#post715047

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=47687&d=1340930699

thus far the inv h/s pattern playing out with min target 1409......the major pattern i was expecting was an ending diagonal wedge to form....that's a  big jump in a broad idea of how the us markets might play out attempting to form a higher high and running out of bids......as momentum kicks in that picture can change extremely rapidly to a new break-out to make new altime highs which is anecdotally hard to qualify.....i am merely concerned with any clues from pricing....less volume might mean something, might mean nothing seasonally, who knows! ......talking heads have been pointing to recent failure by the DJTA to make new highs with the SPX .....they obviously are in a rush to miss that the trans have also made new altime highs along with the cumulative NYAD......all these things need correct context which i find a real challenge and it keeps me inclined to close positions early rather than letting them run for a few days......as patterns develop i am allowing small positions to run after scaling out of the bulk of an initial entry......i used to say that when i am right i score some of the points and when i'm wrong i score all of the points......

the arrows on the charts point to trades left open from friday.....the XJO longs were taken soon after the cash close due to the strength where the index should have sold off and the euro region began forcing shorts to cover and clearly some buy set-ups were triggered and what appeared to me to be an absence of algo activity (most likely they got run over too)

i am protecting 1620 in gold shorts left open on friday...not much more to say about gold.....it's dependent soley on commercials forcing money managers to cover shorts......that's about it....all the smaller time frame games keep saying price is headed to lower for now until a rectum rocket can be forced.....the triangle regime i have been attempting to run also suggests more downside even though i got it wrong a couple of times it now looks to have reasserted, or, at least fits well given the absence (i have yet to see) of any other data......'d be mighty sus of an impulsive break of 1620 area and add to shorts on an overnight hold below the base of the tri which runs currently through 1568 area

i am looking for min 4350 to 4375 XJO .....i do not think the index has found it's final weekly low and the choppy overlapping nature and time spent making this region says to me we have several quarters to go before a genuine bull trend can begin......i am also recognising that a new bull trend does not require a lower low......

depending exactly how the SPX makes pattern over the next two weeks is likely to confirm a major break-out upwards or the attempt to distribute and fail to make april highs.....these days seems all this stuff is business as usual!

the daily/4 hour patterning view is my current attempt to have simplicity in my profiling the internal trade set-up, where is the strength and who is likely to be building there own game and forcing direction.......



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addendum




the cot report tends to underpin my thinking that the cliff edge of equities is away off....in other words, even tho i am expecting a near-term larger top, i do not expect a huge sell off.....even tho the commercials withdrew in a major way from the long side they have not made a commensurate contra position, not enough to signal a major decline......even tho the small speculators tend to be at a peak (as they are now) at the end of a move, what is not showing is a heavy contra pos by the commercials which i would expect to appear right now which tends to make me think several months of sideways chop is more likely than a straight reversal from up to down


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## tech/a (6 August 2012)

Nice analyais.


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## Joules MM1 (8 August 2012)

STO gold additions this morning.....seems appropriate to call them Pearson and Mears




protecting 1620's


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## Joules MM1 (14 August 2012)

after having to give up shorts at 1620 i resold when the overhead of the tri heald firm and have allowed for news spikes to break the overhead......i wont go into all the hyperbole surrounding how gold is sposed to be stella-bound right now.......safe to say, seller bound is still the key, i think, technically inclined.....


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## Joules MM1 (17 August 2012)

this is the channel being saved by speculators......a break of the lower diagonal line should create an orthodox shift more horizontal in time extreme than lower price extreme before a new channel can be formed, rather, this current channel be adjusted to find the new upside target.......i think we are in the do-or-die zone for the bulls for the next several months
bulls need to mount 1628 and hold that level for a week to dismiss the downside.....if that can be done without news then that would be a very strong signal to be long......a 2-session close below 1605 would be the first step on calling downside in progress and a simple closing bar underside the low of the triangle to call the upside over for the next few weeks, possibly months....i suspect any break is likely to be smartish......


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## Joules MM1 (18 August 2012)

Joules MM1;724188 said:
			
		

> ....the cftc report on trader pos in gold futures made for interesting reading this morning.......
> 
> http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm
> 
> View attachment 48643




anecdotally speaking
i omitted to mention the reasoning behind the post was the glaring diff between swap dealers for gold v silver.......my thinking is silver being industrial demand, both qualitative and quantitative, that the lean toward long-side pos v the gold numbers tend to suggest we may be in for several more months of the same for gold futures whereas silver looks to flourish.......this would be a divergence of demand, different to a sell signal, more like a do nothing signal

relative numbers

silver futures pos at 14/08/12
swaps dealers 20,559  long and   6,801  short
gold futures 
swaps dealers 50,179 long and  61,751  short

as  a percentage or as a ratio i get a reading thus 
(shorts/longs where more than 1.0 is bearish reading)
0.33 (strong, bullish) silver and 
1.23 (weak, bearish) gold 

(longs+shorts/longs) plotted as a 10 day over the spot price might make for interesting reading if only to confirm how lame price action has been and how gold as a value (or) as a liquidity vehicle versus other more attractive opportunities

the swaps dealers as a group are pretty savvy and my guess theyre seeing industrial silver as a much stronger play whereas theyre seeing gold as simply a no-go zone rather than an outright demand or supply....also, i've rec'd two emails this week from guys who are on a waiting list to receive silver purchases as supply is so tight the same cannot be said of gold

maybe, as a function, the swaps group is beyond mere opinion as that's how they make their income......

http://www.cftc.gov/OCE/WEB/index.htm
METALS
NYMEX Gold futures open interest fell 2.5 percent in July. Commercial participants, who accounted for 57.8 percent of open interest, held net short positions; they decreased their long positions by 0.2 percent and increased their short positions by 3.8 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 32.4 percent of open interest, held net long positions. They decreased their long positions by 5.6 percent and decreased their short positions by 18.0 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 9.8 percent of total open interest, held net long positions; they increased their long positions by 3.0 percent and decreased their short positions by 21.8 percent.

NYMEX Silver futures open interest fell 3.5 percent in July. Commercial participants, who accounted for 44.6 percent of open interest, held net short positions; they decreased their long positions by 10.1 percent and increased their short positions by 7.4 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 41.5 percent of open interest, held net long positions. They increased their long positions by 1.9 percent and decreased their short positions by 11.5 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 13.9 percent of total open interest, held net long positions; they decreased their long positions by 2.4 percent and decreased their short positions by 19.4 percent.

NYMEX Copper futures open interest fell 2.5 percent in July. Commercial participants, who accounted for 48.1 percent of open interest, held net long positions; they decreased their long positions by 0.4 percent and increased their short positions by 5.0 percent. Non-commercial participants, who accounted for 41.4 percent of open interest, held net short positions. They decreased their long positions by 3.2 percent and decreased their short positions by 5.5 percent. Non-reportable participants, who accounted for 10.5 percent of total open interest, held net short positions; they decreased their long positions by 13.6 percent and decreased their short positions by 11.3 percent.


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## Joules MM1 (21 August 2012)

nice break of triangle at 1624 (shorts closed) including several ratio resistances with silver having the most constructive set of buy signals......longs taken on 1627 with news input added bonus upside and the news lift was not the cause of the take off and as it was part of, with no gap, the last hurdle upside today appears to be  daily 1641 then expect a small retest......for now, data aside, the upside looks good......


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## Joules MM1 (22 August 2012)

1641 looks to be put behind today and next major mole hill should be 1646/7 zone through the 200m/a which will likely bring small volatilty as some managers sell on trigger, once through reverse buys should kick in.....


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