# AOE - Arrow Energy



## yogi-in-oz (11 January 2006)

Hi folks,

AOE ..... it may get started upwards quite soon and
we will be watching AOE carefully for some positive
news and a rally, from 13-19012006 ..... yes ??? ... 

happy days

  yogi


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## laurie (12 January 2006)

*Re: AOE alert ..... astrostuff .....*

Hope you are right Yogi been sitting @ around the .70c for a while good news to-day

cheers laurie


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## powwww (12 January 2006)

*Re: AOE alert ..... astrostuff .....*

technically we would expect a move anyday.  If i had more free cash I would definitely be in.  Its a matter of finding your best gain at the moment - when everything is going up!


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## yogi-in-oz (18 May 2006)

Hi folks,

AOE ... this stock has been testing support over 
the past couple of months and up today, but  .....

 ..... expecting another test of the 54 cent support 
level, over the next couple of weeks, with a couple 
of negative cycles coming into play:

   26-29052006 ..... significant and negative news???

      06062006 ..... negative spotlight on AOE

   12-13062006 ..... expecting positive news here ... ???

   29-30062006 ..... 2 minor cycles expected.

      07072006 ..... negative cycle ... finances?

      10072006 ..... positive sentiment returns =  low ???

      01082006 ..... positive cycle ... finance-related???

      08082006 ..... minor, flat trading, until 16082006???

   16-17082006 ..... aggressive rally ???

      21082006 ..... minor news

   25-28082006 ..... minor   

   05-08092006 ..... 2 cycles here -significant news
                     and positive spotlight on AOE ... 

happy days

  yogi

 

=====


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## chris1983 (17 August 2006)

Keep an eye on this stock.  Some quotes taken out of their latest message.

“The merger with CH4 has created Australia’s leading coal seam gas player, and also one of the leading firms in the sector in the Asia-Pacific region where the opportunities are enormous,” he said.

“We have a market capitalisation in excess of $250 million, two producing projects, two more under development and about 15 more under appraisal.”

But the company’s growth opportunities are not restricted to the Sunshine State, Mr Davies said. “India, China and Indonesia have enormous potential resources of coal seam gas, with gas prices ranging from $5-$13 per gigajoule (GJ) in these markets. All three countries are experiencing a long-term critical supply shortage of gas for their domestic markets, and we
intend to address this need,” he said.

“We have the intellectual property gained by the development of multiple CSG fields in Australia to be the technical partner of choice in Asia. Our contacts in these target countries through our board members, executives, key investors and partners, will allow us to take advantage of these opportunities.”

Now this is the interesting bit below.  Arrow are bidding on Coal Bed Methane III licenses in India.  They are partners with GAIL which is majority owned by the government.  The government issues the licenses don't they?  They would have to be successful in gaining good ground in India.  It looks as if its a certainty.  Am I wrong? 

As an example of the opportunities overseas, a recent power station spot gas sale in India was at $13 per GJ. This compares with the $2.50 - 3.50 per GJ landed prices from Queensland generators in an electricity market operating under tight margins. Bid results are expected in the next few weeks concerning the Coal Bed Methane III licensing round in India which an Arrow led consortium recently participated in. If successful, Arrow and consortium partner GAIL (India) Limited plan to begin operations in 2007.
GAIL (India) Limited, which is majority-owned by the Government of India and is the South Asian nation’s principal integrated gas company, is also continuing its due diligence on Arrow’s Australian tenements offered for joint venture and is expected to make a substantial capital investment in some of Arrow’s Australian projects.


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## yogi-in-oz (18 August 2006)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> AOE ... this stock has been testing support over
> the past couple of months and up today, but  .....
> ...






Hi folks,

AOE ..... as per post above, aggressive rally comes
in, right on time ..... 

happy days

 yogi


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## chris1983 (22 August 2006)

Increase in volume and SP.  Looking good.  Most likely the bid results for tenements in India is going to bring some good news.


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## Sean K (22 August 2006)

Looks like it could be breaking out, although it's done this a few times over the past year and then pulled back again. Needs to hold above $0.65 for a bit to be looking more positive.


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## chris1983 (22 August 2006)

Yeah it has been in this position before.  Looks like it reached that mark again and it has pulled back.  Definately need to wait on news to push it through its previous highs.


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## chris1983 (24 August 2006)

This has been increasing in volume and SP has been increasing steadily over the past week.  Its up to 66 now after hitting 67.5.  There must be something going on.  Anyone have opinions with the value comparisons between AOE and QGC?


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## laurie (24 August 2006)

It has to get to .75c+ in Dec for the options to be in the money  

cheers laurie


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## vicb (22 September 2006)

Should be some positive news next week with the following article below coming out of India.
Hopefully will see a positive reaction in the price if the announcement of the 4 awarded blocks comes out to the market next week. 

"New Delhi, Sept 21: A high-level panel headed by Cabinet Secretary has rejected Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group's contention of "unfair" evaluation in deciding on bids for Coal Bed Methane (CBM) blocks. 

After two rounds of deliberations this week, the panel of secretaries including those of petroleum, finance, law and coal, concluded that the evaluation of bids for 10 coal bed methane blocks (CBM) was done in fair and transparent way and there was no bias against ADAG, official sources said. 

The recommendation for award of four blocks to ADAG's Reliance Natural Resources Ltd and three to Australia's Arrow Energy, is likely to come up for approval at the meeting of Cabinet Committee of Economic Affairs (CCEA) next week. 

Sources said the CCEA had on August 31 asked the four-member empowered committee of secretaries to re-examine the technical evaluation of bids after ADAG staked claim on two of the three blocks awarded to arrow energy which it narrowly missed because of discretionary marking by oil regulator DGH. 

The Cabinet Secretary was asked to chair the four-member secretaries panel, they said, adding that the elite panel considered all points raised by Anil Ambani Group but found no substance in the allegations. 

The government had in February 2006 invited bids for 10 CBM blocks under third round of bidding. The bids closed on June 30. "

Link to news -
http://www.zeenews.com/znnew/articles.asp?aid=324328&ssid=53&sid=BUS


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## chris1983 (22 September 2006)

Thats great news.  Once this goes through it will be huge for Arrow.


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## nioka (22 September 2006)

vicb said:
			
		

> Should be some positive news next week with the following article below coming out of India.
> Hopefully will see a positive reaction in the price if the announcement of the 4 awarded blocks comes out to the market next week.
> 
> "New Delhi, Sept 21: A high-level panel headed by Cabinet Secretary has rejected Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group's contention of "unfair" evaluation in deciding on bids for Coal Bed Methane (CBM) blocks.
> ...



Thanks for the info. I examined the odds, liked them and bought a few more. Even without India they are sound in Aus in my estimation.


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## chris1983 (25 September 2006)

Volume and SP increasing.  One to keep an eye on.  Its been waiting a long time to have a break out.  I think if the news in regards to the Indian CBM blocks is released we could see resistence of around 68 broken.


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## vicb (26 September 2006)

High volume today with most of it appearing to be off market sales?


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## vicb (27 September 2006)

Good profit report by New hope who happen to be an 18% stock holder of Arrow energy.
New hope should have a bit of cash behind them now after this report and also after the selling of its Indonesian coal mine in 2005 for $352 million, but with their Ipswich, Oakleigh and Jeebropilly mine closing in the next couple of years, they will have to look else where for expansion. Arrow may be a good target for it. 
Should be interesting to see what happens after the option date expires.
Also interesting to note Washington H Soul Pattinson owns a 60% share of New Hope.


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## vicb (29 September 2006)

Hopefully some good news for AOE on monday (02/10/06) in regards to the Indian CBM blocks with AOE getting its share of three blocks. 

http://www.chennaionline.com/colnew...916E-484F-ADE9-83BC5B4958DE}&CATEGORYNAME=BIZ 


"ADAG-led consortium awarded 4 CBM blocks 
 Search for More News  
New Delhi, Sept 29: The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs today cleared award of four Coal Bed Methane (CBM) blocks to an Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group-led consortium and three blocks to a consortium led by Australia's Arrow Energy.


One block was awarded to British Petroleum and two to Coalgas, sources said.


The ADAG-led consortium includes REL-RNRL-GeoPetrol, while the Arrow Energy-led consortium comprises Arrow-GAIL-EIG. (Agencies)"


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## chris1983 (30 September 2006)

Thats huge news.  This is the news ive been waiting for to break all resistance points and see the SP finally fly.  Getting into India which so many companies were trying to do is excellent growth for Arrow.

These blocks are not crappy blocks either.  Why would ADAG kick up such a fuss.  They also said if you give it to Arrows consortium less money would stay within the country.  There has to be stacks of Gas there to be developed.

Well heres hoping for a great day on Monday.  This news is a standout to any other that they have released of late so I'm expecting them to finally move.


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## laurie (30 September 2006)

hmmm NHC would be very happy with the news there was a good reason why they took an 18.8% share in AOE if they make a move to take over AOE   

cheers laurie


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## vicb (4 October 2006)

Something going on? Big junp today. Those options may be in the hunt yet.


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## markrmau (4 October 2006)

All I can say is BAA BAA BAA!

I bought after the india announcement as per post on weekend.


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## chris1983 (4 October 2006)

I just jumped on to also see if anyone knew anything.

Something must be happening though.

Winning the blocks in India was huge IMO.  Was dissapointed with how they performed.  Maybe investors have caught on that they are a great buy atm.


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## vicb (4 October 2006)

I am thinking that you may be right Chris. A slow reaction to the news. You were abouit spot on with the 68c.


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## chris1983 (4 October 2006)

They did hit 70.  I would of expected them to keep going.  Still need a push with some decent news.  Sure winner with time IMO.  They look set to do well.


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## markrmau (4 October 2006)

Dissapointing finish. I think an aussie institution (MBL?) is unloading. I think it will be a winner in the long term with gas in india and hopefully other asian areas.


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## vicb (5 October 2006)

Alot of interest should be an interesting open. looks going for a run.


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## chris1983 (5 October 2006)

They are believed to have one of the largest onshore Gasfields in Australia.

"Reserve certifiers Netherland, Sewell and Associates Inc. (NSAI) of Dallas, Texas have confirmed a large reserves base at the Tipton West field with the certification resulting in 1P, 2P and 3P reserves of 25 PJ, 124 PJ and 2104 PJ respectively, making it potentially one of Australia’s largest onshore gas fields"

Recently merged with CH4..expanding with infrastructure and gas sales.

Moving into one of the future powerhouse economies being India.

They are way undervalued!  Just do a comparison with QGC.


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## chris1983 (5 October 2006)

markrmau said:
			
		

> All I can say is BAA BAA BAA!
> 
> I bought after the india announcement as per post on weekend.





Hey Markrmau.  You had perfect timing with this one.  They just hit 74.5.  Its going very very well


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## Aussiejeff (5 October 2006)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> Hey Markrmau.  You had perfect timing with this one.  They just hit 74.5.  Its going very very well





Indeed it is! Maybe the $600+ million raid today by Santos on QGC is going to boost action in the short term at least for valuable CSG reserve holders. My last batch of SGL shares picked up at 27c are also looking good today....

Go-GAS!!

Cheers 

AJ


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## vicb (5 October 2006)

They should still be a good takeover target in the future. Hopefully we will see a bit more strength in the price.


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## markrmau (5 October 2006)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> Hey Markrmau.  You had perfect timing with this one.  They just hit 74.5.  Its going very very well



Unfortunately I have to put it down to luck. The market didn't seem to care about india. All about valuation of cbm resources in australia.


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## markrmau (6 October 2006)

Director bought at approx 77c.

Can't believe it. Why didn't he have the balls to do it after Monday's announcement?

In the AFR today, AGL boss seems to think further consolidation in gas is definately on.


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## vicb (6 October 2006)

Strange thing for the Director to do but a good sign. He may have been caught out by how quick the price went up.
 It is always good to have abit of luck on your side.   
There is talk of a higher offer for QGC around the corner from a second bidder. I do not think Santos will be successful with there bid I think they were talking about $1.26 a share.
CSG may be the flavor of the month.


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## chris1983 (6 October 2006)

See message Below.

They keep rolling on 


Arrow announces joint Gas to Liquids Feasibility Study.

The Directors of Arrow Energy NL (“Arrow”) are pleased to advise that Arrow has enteredinto an agreement with Alcan South Pacific Pty Ltd to undertake a Preliminary Concept Studyof a Gas to Liquids (“GTL”) project in Queensland using coal seam gas from Arrow projects.

The study is expected to be completed in early 2007 and aims to provide sufficientinformation for the parties to decide whether to proceed to a more detailed study. The study will evaluate the GTL project against the current and alternative energy options available for Alcan’s Australian operations.

GTL is a process by which gas can be converted to a range of liquids using a technique that employs a catalyst to create a synthetic crude oil. This “syncrude” can then be treated in the same way as regular crude oil in a refinery to create high end distillates such as gasoline or clean diesel.
Arrow is extremely pleased to be joined by Alcan South Pacific in its efforts to develop a GTL project in Queensland.


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## chris1983 (6 October 2006)

Arrow are continuing to Roll on.  Just hit 87.  Investors can finally see the potential.

.


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## laurie (6 October 2006)

Yep AOEO up a massive 94.44%   

cheers laurie

ps thanks QGC for brining the options on the money


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## nioka (6 October 2006)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> Arrow are continuing to Roll on.  Just hit 87.  Investors can finally see the potential.
> 
> .



It is interesting that,despite their interest on this thread, nobody selected them for the stock picking comp. My excuse is that I think I have a better one but AOE was my second pick.


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## chris1983 (6 October 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> It is interesting that,despite their interest on this thread, nobody selected them for the stock picking comp. My excuse is that I think I have a better one but AOE was my second pick.




Well I had three shares to choose from.  It was either BMN, AOE or SHA.

I chose BMN.  I tipped AOE on topstocks.com.au to go to 80 though  got that spot on~


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## vicb (6 October 2006)

You did well Chris. You were bang on the money.
I was not (and I do not think anybody else was) expecting the stock to go up so quick.
I selected URL for the tipping comp. Its a stock I do not own and outside of a game I would be reluctant to buy with my hard earned cash at the current price of 13.5c but would be more interested in real life under 9c.
They have had a hard ride from 21c to 13c in 1 month so I have just tipped them in the game as a wild punt but it is not a very secure bet.
I thought Arrow would be up about 10% months end but they have had a string of good news in the last few days.


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## chris1983 (7 October 2006)

I thought the CBM blocks that were won in India would drive the price up.  They were bound to go up eventually..they continued to release message after message which was always positive..

Combine those positive messages with the added interest from investors into the coal seam gas market..plus the QGC takeover offer..then..Bam!  up goes the SP.  They should keep going too.  I'll be holding these long term.  Emerging company.


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## markrmau (7 October 2006)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> I'll be holding these long term.  Emerging company.



I agree totally. I stuck some in the super fund as well.

I think it would be terrible if someone makes a bid for AOE - you would be looking at $1.20 max(?) If india is successful, this could go much higher in the long term (though the market did not agree).


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## chris1983 (7 October 2006)

markrmau said:
			
		

> I agree totally. I stuck some in the super fund as well.
> 
> I think it would be terrible if someone makes a bid for AOE - you would be looking at $1.20 max(?) If india is successful, this could go much higher in the long term (though the market did not agree).




Your right Mark.  I hope no bids come through.  Newhope may come in with a bid.  Even if they bid I dont think they would get it.  May just drive the price up for us and show the companies true value.


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## laurie (7 October 2006)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> Your right Mark.  I hope no bids come through.  Newhope may come in with a bid.  Even if they bid I dont think they would get it.  May just drive the price up for us and show the companies true value.




I think AOE would welcome NHC T/O! they have {WD H. Souls Patersons} a hands off approach to investments they are involved in like New Hope Corporation just by getting approx 64% of the company   

cheers laurie


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## chris1983 (11 October 2006)

Keeps rolling.

Good long term play.  I'm looking forward to a message on their expansion into India.


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## chris1983 (16 October 2006)

Just some comparisons between the two.  Posted this on another forum site and though it may of be interest to others.  Any comments? AOE should crack a dollar if they continue to catch up to QGC.  Also a good message released today with Arrow adding another 13% to its Reserves Base in Annual Bowen Basin Reserve.

Queensland Gas (Market Cap 710 Million with 478 million shares on issue) 

To date, QGC's appraisal efforts have been directed towards proving gas reserves at its Berwyndale South and Argyle gas fields. QGC's share of Proved and Probable (2P) gas reserves amounts to 422 PJ (410 bcf), with 2,464 PJ (2.4 Trillion cubic feet) of 3P reserves.

Arrow Energy (460 million shares on issue plus 90 million options exercisable at 75 cents)

Fully diluted market cap is around 490 million. That’s with the oppies converted. The 75 cents oppies will bring arrow a nice bit of cash in the bank.

Reserve certifiers Netherland, Sewell and Associates Inc. (NSAI) of Dallas, Texas have confirmed a large reserves base at the Tipton West field with the certification resulting in 1P, 2P and 3P reserves of 25 PJ, 124 PJ and 2104 PJ respectively, making it potentially one of Australia’s largest onshore gas fields.
With subsequent reserves certification of 83 PJ Probable and 157 PJ Possible, the Kogan North project is now in full development mode following final approval by farmin partner, CS Energy Limited (Queensland’s largest electricity generator).The 83 PJ of certified Probable reserves is more than sufficient to meet the requirements of the CS Energy contract, which is for 4 PJ pa for 15 years. 

NOTE: Arrow have their Indian project looking good with Gas price at a premium. Arrow could easily double. Way undervalued when you do the comparisons. Don’t forget their additional projects of converting Gas to Liquids with Alcan and their Gas power station project with Transfield.


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## chris1983 (17 October 2006)

Arrow just hit 99.  The magical dollar mark looks like it could be broken today.  Its still a buy at these prices.  One to watch when you do value comparisons with QGC.


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## chris1983 (17 October 2006)

I wonder why the first part of this message hasnt been released by Arrow.

"Arrow Energy <AOE.AX> jumped 3.2 percent to A$0.965 after it said that it and Indian gas transporter GAIL (India) Ltd. <GAIL.BO> are together looking to invest in coalbed methane (CBM) projects in China and Indonesia. 

Dealers said that continued speculation that the firm will receive a takeover talk also lifted its share price. "

They havnt released any message lately about moving into China and Indonesia am I right?  This info was taken off the news section of Sanford securities.

(c) Reuters Limited 2006
REUTER NEWS SERVICE


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## chris1983 (17 October 2006)

Found the information.  Its from the Open briefing released on the 13th Oct.

"Overseas we continue to pursue attractive business development opportunities in China and Indonesia, which we believe may hold similar upsides to the company as India. And in the latter country, we will be preparing our exploration and appraisal program for what could be very large piece of business for us and will transform us into one of the key international CSG players."

This company wont be only limited to Australia. Allready expanding into India with good CBM blocks. The next countries will be China and Indonesia.


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## vicb (17 October 2006)

Thanks for the info Chris.


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## chris1983 (18 October 2006)

Have you guys read the comments made by Nick Davies.  This is a must read.  Arrow is still considerably undervalued. 

"Arrow’s own 2P reserves are 440 PJ. However, in general, I am not a great
supporter of the “2P Valuation Methodology” for CSG companies. It is more
suitable for conventional gas companies - because of the considerably greater
exploration risk and costs for conventional gas, and for CSG companies it does not reflect the massive upside reserves potential that exists within a company like Arrow. To some extent Santos’s bid has recognised this upside potential in QGC’s acreage, and given that Arrow has an order of magnitude more acreage under tenement than QGC across 5 basins compared with 1 basin, this bodes well for us.

Overall, I am very positive over what Santos’ bid could mean for Arrow’s share
price going forward. On any of the typically used valuation metrics, Arrow
numbers exceed QGC’s and that includes: 2P reserves; 3P reserves; current
production; 2007 forecast production; all subsequent years forecast production;contracted gas sales; number of producing projects; number of appraisal projects and area of tenements. Add to this the upside of India, the potential GAIL farmin and the GTL project and we expect a dynamic situation over the next few months."


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## chris1983 (24 October 2006)

News found on other forum sites.  Thought its important for Arrow holders who are members of this forum to know.

"Gail will be investing about Rs 500 crore for 50 per cent stake in four CBM "areas" currently owned by Arrow Energy in Australia, which are at various stages of exploration and production."

500 crore is an equivelent of around 140 million.  I think its around that value.. See article.  Link below

http://www.gailonline.com/news/gail1.htm?newsnum=35


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## chris1983 (10 November 2006)

Creeping back to its high of 1.08.  Should be interesting to see if it will hold above a dollar once the options come onto the market.


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## chris1983 (28 November 2006)

Holding extremely well.  The oppies expire on the 1st December.  They havn't pulled back far at all from their high of 1.08.

The presentation released on the 24th of November is a good read.
The achievements for 2006 are as follows

•Successful merger with CH4
•46% increase in share price
•Over 100 wells drilled
•Over $160m funding raised
•Three new producing projects
•Three Indian blocks awarded with net resources up to 500 MMBOE (approx 10 TCF gas gross)
•Joint GTL concept study agreed with Alcan
•Plans in place to target $100m annual EBITDA by FY 2010
•Significant reserves upgrades achieved

The Indian blocks they won during the bidding process look great...10 TCF is a lot of gas and they have a 35% share in two of the blocks and 40% share in the other.  Arrow is the leading CSG tenement holder in Australia and have the largest onshore Gas field in Australia.  They have more than 90,000 sq km of land and have access to all major Queensland markets as stated in their presentation.  They will have more than enough money to fund ongoing projects with all options being underwritten by Wilson HTM Corporate Finance.  Its going to be a good future for Arrow IMO.


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## vicb (29 November 2006)

They are a busy little lot. 
They are holding their price alot better then I would of thought. It will be interesting to see how the price holds after the options convert.
I will be holding on with a long view. Managed to buy up extra options a 4.4c. So they are treating me kindly.


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## chris1983 (4 December 2006)

The date to exercise the options is over..They are off and racing.  1.09.  Has broken through resistance of about 1.05 and has also broken previous highs of 1.08


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## chris1983 (4 December 2006)

Arrow are expanding rapidly.  With money coming in soon from their options..they look to be a great company.  They should soon take over QGC's market cap.  Comparison wise they have a lot more projects on the cards.

*4 December 2006*

*Arrow Takes Strategic Option to Farm-In to Indonesian Coal Bed Methane
Projects*

_Arrow Energy has reached an agreement with Sugico Graha, PT (Sugico), which provides Arrow with an option to farm-in to twelve of Sugico’s tenements in South Sumatra, Indonesia to earn up to a 65% interest in each.
Sugico’s projects consist of twelve coal KPs (Kuasa Pertambangan = Mining Authorisation) in the South Sumatra Basin covering approximately 140,000 hectares. Sugico’s KPs are close to existing gas pipeline infrastructure and growing energy markets. The Government of Indonesia is currently preparing regulations to govern the exploration and development of Coal Bed Methane (CBM) in Indonesia with the regulations expected to be released in the 1st quarter of 2007. These regulations are expected to give first right of refusal for CBM tenements to the existing and overlapping tenement holders for Coal and Petroleum.

The Farm-in Agreement Option with Sugico provides Arrow with the opportunity to farm-in to earn 65% interest in all of the twelve KPs. Sugico is a privately held Indonesian company with diversified interests in Mining (Coal, Mineral Sands, Gold, Lime Stones and Iron Ores), Oil & Gas exploration and production, Equipment Supply and Plant Maintenance Services, Coal Mine Mouth Power Generation and Crude Palm Oil.

The government of Indonesia is moving quickly to settle the regulations and terms for CBM production, as the demand for clean energy in Indonesia is enormous. A study in a Society of Petroleum Engineers’ paper (Scott H Stevens, Hadiyanto: - Indonesia Coalbed Methane Indicators and Basin Evaluation - Paper SPE 88630) has estimated that the potential Coal Seam Gas resource in South Sumatra alone is 183 TCF.

Pipeline infrastructure connecting South Sumatra and the heavily populated island of Java is currently under construction. This farm-in option represents a strategic first mover advantage for Arrow in Indonesia and follows Arrow’s recent strategy document outlining a plan to follow up the successful award of exploration blocks in India with a selection procedure for prospective blocks and local partners in Indonesia and China_


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## vicb (4 December 2006)

Thats great news
Good to see some positive news and support at the moment. Should be good for the options to hit the market.


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## chops_a_must (4 December 2006)

Have been watching this one for a while as I am a holder in QGC.

Seriously considered getting on it while it was about .70. Should have in retrospect.

But it is good to see two really well run companies taking on the big boys and beating them at their own game.


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## laurie (7 December 2006)

97% acceptance on options by shareholders says a lot about a company when you get that level of support [2.9m to underwriter]

cheers laurie


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## chris1983 (7 December 2006)

yep..shares will come on the market on the 12th of december.  Lets watch how well they hold up.


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## chris1983 (12 December 2006)

Arrow are performing extremely well.  Volume is steady and sp creeping up when the new shares are to be allocated today.


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## chris1983 (14 December 2006)

Hit a high of 1.30.  Has pulled back with profit takers but is looking extremely strong.  Especially since 60+ million oppies were converted and put on the market.

One to watch.  Company in the making IMO.


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## laurie (14 December 2006)

AOE may overtake a slow QGC holding both   

cheers laurie


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## vicb (14 December 2006)

Suprised me with the movement today. I was expecting it to go backwards with the converted options trading. Very suprised when they hit $1.30.
All looks good though and I think I we will see a further up swing in the future.
This stock is far from finished.


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## nioka (21 December 2006)

AOE report the Daandine power station has begun generating electricity and starts a new source of income. This meets the target set to commence operating before the end of this year.


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## laurie (21 December 2006)

And it just goes to show what good management can do they deliver the goods    

cheers laurie


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## chops_a_must (21 December 2006)

I've finally got some money to put into this one. Just waiting for the right time. Seeing what this is going to do next. Would like it to sit on 1.15 for me.


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## vicb (30 December 2006)

Hi Chris1983,
I have tried to email aoe to you but your inbox is full. You may need to clear some old emails or send me your email address and I will send it on there.
Cheers


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## nsitt (22 January 2007)

going has been slow since start of year with the share slipping down to a support of 1.15. We've had some good long term news, but it just seems to be holding atm. Bought in at 1.10 and another lot at 1.23 so happy to hold atm pending any new announcements or major price mvmts.

Hope this sleeping giant wakes up soon.


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## chris1983 (22 January 2007)

nsitt said:
			
		

> going has been slow since start of year with the share slipping down to a support of 1.15. We've had some good long term news, but it just seems to be holding atm. Bought in at 1.10 and another lot at 1.23 so happy to hold atm pending any new announcements or major price mvmts.
> 
> Hope this sleeping giant wakes up soon.




I'm still holding   This is the rock in my portfolio.  Its going to become a great company I think


----------



## LifeisShort (22 January 2007)

Yeah I also got in, its definitely consolidating. There was a a nice run up late last year so its taking a breather. Lot of things that look good with this one such as the India venture, exploration, production and turning in a profit this year. It all points to another succesful year. I classify this one as a long termer.


----------



## nsitt (22 January 2007)

nice to hear a cpl of positive sentiments about this one, lots of my colleagues have run clear of this due to the lack of price action. 
If she continues to hold around 1.15 i might buy in another parcel because on the back of some good news I don't doubt that she could test her 1.30 ceiling.

Fingers crossed


----------



## LifeisShort (22 January 2007)

Earlier this month there were some biggish buys of over 100,000 shares or more at a time around the 1.15-1.20 mark. That puts confidence in the stock. There really hasn't been any negative news (touch wood) re this company and its seems a lot of hurdles and ifs are falling into place like the PNG gas pipeline not proceeding, winning the India tenements, merger with CH4, coalbed methane gas sentiment.....the positive news just keep on rolling....I can see the price rising but not before a bit more selling as the company has hung around with the share price steady for a long time. Its cashing in time to some.


----------



## chris1983 (22 January 2007)

Hey LIS I held in the 60's for a good 4-5 months I think it was before I was faced with a nice increase.  This is a very good company..allready with cashflow being generated.  What do they have in the bank?  Isn't it like 70 million off the top of my head.  This company is set for big things.


----------



## LifeisShort (22 January 2007)

Chris

You've done well.....I'm holding onto this little nugget until it fulfills its potential and the big institutions take notice. This is a nice energy stock/explorer/producer. I like to see microcaps become smallcaps or bigger. They are very few and far between but this one is shaping up nicely.


----------



## chris1983 (22 January 2007)

LIS im also excited to see the Indian projects get off the ground just as you are.  I really believe Arrow will bring us good fortune this year as last year did.  They have some good international projects to get off the ground.


----------



## chris1983 (30 January 2007)

Big buyer just went through.  Up 7 cents in a flash.


----------



## LifeisShort (30 January 2007)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> Big buyer just went through.  Up 7 cents in a flash.




Look at AOE go.....up 11%. Nothing like a good presentation and a big buyer to spark a rally. I'm very keen on this stock Chris just like you are. I think its just the two of us in this one


----------



## chris1983 (30 January 2007)

Hey LIS.  Its because of the new Santos offer to QGC shareholders.  They are offering an overall value of 1.80 per share for QGS shares.  You would of read from the fat prophets write up they are extremely keen on Arrow Energy.  For others to see extracts from the write up below.


_"With regard to a broad earnings outlook, we anticipate Earnings per Share (EPS) of 2.5 cents in 2007, increasing to 4.5 cents in 2008. We regard these as conservative estimates, as they do not account for other significant production opportunities that could materialize in what is a very rapidly changing landscape. 

Corporate activity in the resources sector is increasing and the CSG sector is no exception. Santos recently announced a hostile $606 million takeover bid for Queensland Gas. A close inspection of the bid shows that Santos is paying A$1.38/GJ of 2P reserves, based on QGC's current 2P reserves of 423 PJ.

By comparison, Arrow's own 2P reserves are 498 PJ, yet Arrow's market value is just $450 million. We believe that valuations based on 2P reserves alone are not an appropriate way of valuing CSG companies, as they do not accurately reflect the potential upside from commercialization of overall 3P reserves, but the exercise does provide an interesting comparison and highlights Arrow's fundamental value. Furthermore, Arrow beats QGC in terms of 2P & 3P reserves, current and forecast production, contracted gas sales, producing and developing projects, as well as boating tremendous partners in GAIL and Tata. "_

Now you have to take into account they have aquired a 50% ownership in Global CBM pty ltd which will now be renamed to Arrow Global CBM pty ltd.

_"Global is in the advanced stages of business development for the
acquisition of coal bed methane (CBM) assets in Indonesia, China, Vietnam
and India."_

The other assets the have exposure to in Indonesia are

_"Arrow Energy has reached an agreement with Sugico Graha, PT (Sugico), which provides Arrow with an option to farm-in to twelve of Sugico’s tenements in South Sumatra, Indonesia to earn up to a 65% interest in each."_

So what valuation can we put on Arrow?  Another winner with this one LIS.  Still a long long way to go.


----------



## nsitt (30 January 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> Look at AOE go.....up 11%. Nothing like a good presentation and a big buyer to spark a rally. I'm very keen on this stock Chris just like you are. I think its just the two of us in this one




No your not 

I've been holding on to this since the mid 90c mark and have persisted with it even though all the tech indicators are sayin time to go. Can't rely on indicators all the time!!!!! Let price, volume, and NEWS be king.

As you said, no bad news at all, i put the recent share price decline down to lack of frequent news deterring holders from holding so profits were taken after last months rises.


----------



## chops_a_must (30 January 2007)

nsitt said:
			
		

> No your not
> 
> I've been holding on to this since the mid 90c mark and have persisted with it even though all the tech indicators are sayin time to go. Can't rely on indicators all the time!!!!! Let price, volume, and NEWS be king.
> 
> As you said, no bad news at all, i put the recent share price decline down to lack of frequent news deterring holders from holding so profits were taken after last months rises.



Me three.

Nice bounce off key support at 1.11. Fundamentally a great enterprise.


----------



## LifeisShort (30 January 2007)

so that makes four believers. I'm riding this one all the way. I do know one of the top 10 shareholders in this one and they aren't sellers. Long term holders. Chris what you've mentioned is spot on.

What I look for in a company is a leader or close to in its field....tick
Niche market.......tick
Global growth expansion potential.......tick

plus some others


----------



## nioka (30 January 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> Look at AOE go.....up 11%. Nothing like a good presentation and a big buyer to spark a rally. I'm very keen on this stock Chris just like you are. I think its just the two of us in this one



I've been in this one for some time and watched my money more than double and expect to be with it for some time yet. Don't post on this thread often as Chris keeps everyone informed most of the time. It is one of those steady stocks of the "berger" type,  (it just keeps on and on.)


----------



## chris1983 (31 January 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> so that makes four believers. I'm riding this one all the way. I do know one of the top 10 shareholders in this one and they aren't sellers. Long term holders.





LIS you know lots of people   Anyway I hope all the current holders make a nice profit.  Looks good for tomorrow.  Im expecting them to hit a new high tomorrow.  They should continue to chase the price of QGC..that would be a nice scenario.  I wont be cashing in anytime soon though.  I have this labeled as a longterm hold like some of the others on this thread.


----------



## chris1983 (31 January 2007)

Well the opening was a little dissapointing I was expecting them to push higher today but QGC retraced and we are falling in line with them.  I cant wait untill the QGC takeover is done and buried so we arent always rated under them.


----------



## LifeisShort (31 January 2007)

Yeah its a bit ridiculous that at the moment the company is not going up on its own merits but because its competitor is. Although its good to see that Santos has valued QGC at 710million which should make AOE thereabouts or more. Right now its around the $670million but potentially it could be huge. Reading the presentation from yesterday on the company just reinforced my beliefs.


----------



## chris1983 (31 January 2007)

Arrow have something like 70 million cash at bank also.  I dont think QGC have that much cash in their kitty atm.


----------



## trueblue (31 January 2007)

Don't let's forget Sydney Gas, it is starting to recover also.


----------



## nioka (1 February 2007)

It would appear from todays news from OSH that the gas pipeline from New Guinea is a dream from the past. This must be good for AOE ond MOS. Probably already factored into the price.


----------



## LifeisShort (1 February 2007)

nioka said:
			
		

> It would appear from todays news from OSH that the gas pipeline from New Guinea is a dream from the past. This must be good for AOE ond MOS. Probably already factored into the price.




This is still the overhanging negative for AOE until its finally put to rest by Oil Search. Sounds like finally maybe they have put the idea out to pasture.


----------



## LifeisShort (5 February 2007)

Interesting article thats for sure....

http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2006/s1749914.htm


----------



## chris1983 (7 February 2007)

Nice jump with this one again.  Hit 1.27.  Atleast one of my shares is going up today


----------



## LifeisShort (7 February 2007)

There is plenty of life left in this one. If only I got some more at 1.11 a week or 2 back.


----------



## chris1983 (7 February 2007)

They are looking good LIS.  Looking really good   Too bad I cant get all 3 of my major plays going up at once.  I'm looking forward to Arrow breaking through its previous high of 1.30


----------



## chris1983 (16 February 2007)

Somethings definately changing in arrow today.  We may break that previous high.


----------



## chops_a_must (16 February 2007)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> Somethings definately changing in arrow today.  We may break that previous high.



That was a bizarre move straight through 1.30.


----------



## chris1983 (16 February 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> That was a bizarre move straight through 1.30.




I know..but I'm liking it.  Cant wait untill this 1.30 mark is dead and buried!  I think this will be the day  There must be a message on the cards.  Hopefully in regards to their Indian assets.


----------



## nsitt (16 February 2007)

Happy to see AOE back up to 1.30 where it belongs. After a very quiet start to the year things are picking up again. Solid company. Chart is starting to look better now as well   Glad to be holding


----------



## chris1983 (16 February 2007)

Well it ran to 1.34 but it seems that profit takers have pulled it back.  Happy with the break over 1.30 though.  A movement like that doesnt happen for nothing.  Someone knows something.  Should be interesting to see if any developments happen in the up coming weeks.


----------



## LifeisShort (16 February 2007)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> Well it ran to 1.34 but it seems that profit takers have pulled it back.  Happy with the break over 1.30 though.  A movement like that doesnt happen for nothing.  Someone knows something.  Should be interesting to see if any developments happen in the up coming weeks.




I've realised why there was such a nice move up by AOE today....the article in AFR today was fantastic read.....very positive and encompasses all that I believe.....should be more movement on Monday


----------



## chris1983 (17 February 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> I've realised why there was such a nice move up by AOE today....the article in AFR today was fantastic read.....very positive and encompasses all that I believe.....should be more movement on Monday




I saw the article LIS.

Its very positive and they mention Dyno Nobel deciding to proceed with a 520 million Plant in the Bowen Basin to make explosives from Arrow's gas.

There has been no messages in regards to this though from Arrow?  They also focus largely on Arrows International expansion.  The title of the article is "Arrow hits the international target"  and they are saying that Arrow has made some major moves in aquiring International assets and will continue to do so.

A snippet taken from the article that I like.

_"His plan for this year is to secure title to as many international assets as possible"
_
Another section I think is great.

_"All of Arrow's 498 petajoules of proven and probable reserves come from just 1 per cent of its 90,000 square kilometres of leases in Queensland."_

and another good quote from the article in regards to international assets

_"Recently, Davies has ramped up the international side of the business, working with Indian group GAIL to secure stakes in three exploration blocks in India, which the government has estimated to contain more than 10 trillion cubic feet of gas."_

Now most of us guys allready know this but its good that the article has revealed Arrows excellent potential to the public and the AFR is read by many investors.  I think we should have a good day for Monday.


----------



## chops_a_must (19 February 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> I've realised why there was such a nice move up by AOE today....the article in AFR today was fantastic read.....very positive and encompasses all that I believe.....should be more movement on Monday



And as usual, it gives up its gains.


----------



## LifeisShort (19 February 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> And as usual, it gives up its gains.




Its only a small retreat....its moving in the right direction at least 2 steps forward 1 step back......give me that anytime...i'd rether that then up 50% one day down 50% the next


----------



## chris1983 (21 February 2007)

Reason for the fall today.

	"ACCC to Oppose Santos Proposed Acquisition of QGC"

Its disgusting I tell you.  It frustrates me we are going down and up in relation to these messages.  Arrow should be valued higher than QGC anyway and yet we get these drops when a take over offer is opposed by the ACCC.  Ok thats my frustation out for the day.


----------



## LifeisShort (21 February 2007)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> Reason for the fall today.
> 
> "ACCC to Oppose Santos Proposed Acquisition of QGC"
> 
> Its disgusting I tell you.  It frustrates me we are going down and up in relation to these messages.  Arrow should be valued higher than QGC anyway and yet we get these drops when a take over offer is opposed by the ACCC.  Ok thats my frustation out for the day.




You're not wrong there and its not as if they are not being taken over....AGL will still take them on the cheap because they don't have to raise their offer with Santos out of the way.....perhaps Santos will take their attentions to someone else.....I supoose its a good buying opportunity to top up the holdings. Chris I find it as ridiculous as you......why on earth would you buy stock in arrow because of Santos takeover of QGC......it beats me. How amateurish......Arrow will come through this hiccup that it has nothing to do with


----------



## chops_a_must (21 February 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> You're not wrong there and its not as if they are not being taken over....AGL will still take them on the cheap because they don't have to raise their offer with Santos out of the way.....perhaps Santos will take their attentions to someone else.....I supoose its a good buying opportunity to top up the holdings. Chris I find it as ridiculous as you......why on earth would you buy stock in arrow because of Santos takeover of QGC......it beats me. How amateurish......Arrow will come through this hiccup that it has nothing to do with



QGC holders would be disappointed with the proceedings. AGL will be getting about a 20% discount as to what they should really be paying.

As to it moving with QGC... acquisition talk breeds more acquisition talk, especially in the same sector. The AOE chart still looks fairly bearish and we may see it at 1.10 again.


----------



## LifeisShort (23 February 2007)

What a great announcement and bang......the sp goes for a run. That just sets up the company for the future....Brilliant.....


----------



## chris1983 (23 February 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> What a great announcement and bang......the sp goes for a run. That just sets up the company for the future....Brilliant.....




Company of the future!


----------



## chris1983 (23 February 2007)

*$225 million proposed investment into Arrow CSG Acreage*

The Directors of Arrow Energy NL (“Arrow”) are pleased to announce the signing of a Letter of Intent (“LOI”) with EIG Energy Infrastructure Group AB (“EIG”) of Sweden for a farm-in to a portfolio of predominantly exploration coal seam gas assets in the Eastern coastal region of Queensland.

The assets to be subject to the 50:50 joint venture between Arrow and EIG include:

• tenements in the Clarence Moreton and Coastal Queensland basins;
• the Dundee Project; and
• Daandine Power Generation Project.

EIG will contribute $150 million to the joint venture for the rapid exploration, appraisal and, potentially, development of the portfolio of assets. EIG will sole fund joint venture costs until such time as the $150 million of funds is spent, including an upfront reimbursement to Arrow of all costs incurred by Arrow on the assets since March 2006. Subsequent expenditure beyond the $150m will revert to a 50:50 split.

EIG will also pay up to $75 million to Arrow by way of three milestone bonuses of $25 million each on achieving certification of 250 PJ, 500 PJ and 750 PJ (all cumulative) of gross 2P gas reserves on the portfolio of assets. The tenements represent approximately 1/3 of Arrow’s current tenement acreage, the majorityof which are still at the exploration and appraisal stage. A map showing the assets to be farmed out is attached to this announcement.


----------



## nioka (23 February 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> The AOE chart still looks fairly bearish and we may see it at 1.10 again.



Not any more.


----------



## chris1983 (23 February 2007)

You think? 

They still have 70 million plus at bank.  Arrow is so well set to do well its not funny.


----------



## chops_a_must (23 February 2007)

nioka said:
			
		

> Not any more.



I was nearly right though. It got down to 1.11. I'm not complaining. I'm still holding and I am very happy with the stock. Chris and Life, if it closes above 1.30, we may see it run on Monday.

Go you good thing! It's about time this one got some legs again. And it's still a bargain at this price IMO. 

Also, Santos last night said that they were still interested in CSG companies even though the QGC deal was dudded. Could get interesting...


----------



## nioka (23 February 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I was nearly right though. It got down to 1.11. I'm not complaining. I'm still holding and I am very happy with the stock. Chris and Life, if it closes above 1.30, we may see it run on Monday.
> 
> Go you good thing! It's about time this one got some legs again. And it's still a bargain at this price IMO.
> 
> Also, Santos last night said that they were still interested in CSG companies even though the QGC deal was dudded. Could get interesting...



Yes, you were close but I, for one, am glad you were wrong. I think the new partnership for AOE is part of their takeover protection plan and should keep Santos at bay. I think AOE has a long way to go and I think we would miss out on a long term gain if a takeover , even at a good premium, happened now.


----------



## chops_a_must (23 February 2007)

nioka said:
			
		

> Yes, you were close but I, for one, am glad you were wrong. I think the new partnership for AOE is part of their takeover protection plan and should keep Santos at bay. I think AOE has a long way to go and I think we would miss out on a long term gain if a takeover , even at a good premium, happened now.



You and me both.

Yes. This one is a long termer for me. I'm looking forward to watching this one throughout the year. Should be fun.


----------



## LifeisShort (23 February 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> You and me both.
> 
> Yes. This one is a long termer for me. I'm looking forward to watching this one throughout the year. Should be fun.




How brilliant is the strategic alignment......don't have to fork out a cent on exploration for some of those tenements and then it reverts to 50/50. If they find anything and turn into production then its a great deal. Takes out the need for AOE to raise any more cash.....they wouldn't do it at the moment anyway cause they are cashed up and have finally turned in a profit although minute its the start of it!!!!

I can see this run to 1.50 on this announcement in the near future and from there it should get more support

What a great story arrow is. I had my order to buy more at 1.14 just before the announcement and wooshka


----------



## vicb (23 February 2007)

We may see more news from India soon.
Interesting reports on a meeting there today.

Industry News


India and Australia discuss enhancing cooperation in OIL Sector


India and Australia today discussed the possibilities of further enhancing cooperation in the hydrocarbon sector. At a meeting between the Minister of Petroleum & Natural Gas Shri Murli Deora and the visiting Premier of Western Australia Mr. Alan Carpenter here today, the two sides felt the need for having criss-cross investment by the companies from India and Australia, in both the countries. The two leaders reiterated the vast possibilities in this regard in India and Australia - particularly Western Australia.

Shri Deora while referring to the existing cooperation in various areas of oil and gas sector said that the companies from the two countries could take greater advantage of investment opportunities available in both countries. He referred to the possibility of importing LNG from Western Australia as well as Indian companies picking up more equity oil as part of India’s plans to add E&P properties abroad. Similarly, the cooperation in developing Coal Bed Methane (CBM) projects offer significant possibilities to build upon the participation of Arrow Energy, an Australian company, in the third CBM round which concluded recently. He also invited Australian companies which have strong R&D base in oil and gas sector to set up facilities in India.

Mr. Carpenter informed that Western Australia is a significant source of supplying natural gas particularly the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), for which India is also emerging as a an attractive market. The new projects for enhancing LNG capacity in the country are being implemented to increase this from about 16 million tonnes to about 50 million tonnes. He also invited Indian investment in the exploration and production of hydrocarbon in Western Australia.


----------



## chops_a_must (23 February 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> How brilliant is the strategic alignment......don't have to fork out a cent on exploration for some of those tenements and then it reverts to 50/50. If they find anything and turn into production then its a great deal. Takes out the need for AOE to raise any more cash.....they wouldn't do it at the moment anyway cause they are cashed up and have finally turned in a profit although minute its the start of it!!!!
> 
> I can see this run to 1.50 on this announcement in the near future and from there it should get more support
> 
> What a great story arrow is. I had my order to buy more at 1.14 just before the announcement and wooshka



It looks fantastic! It's almost like a one way bet now.

1.30 should now be the new support.

Lucky duck   Hopefully it wont ever get back there.


----------



## chris1983 (27 February 2007)

Just smashed the previous high.  Hit 1.39.  Arrow has a habbit of jumping hard and fast.


----------



## chris1983 (27 February 2007)

Someone now comes in with a sell at 1.365

sheesh.  I dont know why you would sell but this is all good signs.  Big boys are getting into these.


----------



## chops_a_must (28 February 2007)

Should have bought more of these instead of NWE. Lol!


----------



## vicb (28 February 2007)

Hi Chris,
Sorry about using the forum but check your inbox.
Cheers


----------



## chris1983 (2 March 2007)

Arrow are looking great atm.  Should break over 1.40 soon.  Just my opinion.


----------



## laurie (2 March 2007)

Good management has got this to where it is today   

cheers laurie


----------



## chris1983 (4 March 2007)

There has got to be news soon on Arrows Indian Tenements.  Nothing has slowed Arrow down.  Below is some information on their Indian assets which is only one of their major projects they have running.  They have so much going for them.

_"The consortia won the three blocks amidst stiff competition from various major domestic and international players. Out of the three blocks, one block is in Rajmahal Coal field, Jharkhand and the other two blocks are in Mand Raigarh and Tata Pani Ramkola Coal fields, Chattishgarh.

The consortium structure in the three awarded blocks are as follows:		

(See Image attached)

*As per DGH the resource potential of the Rajmahal blocks is 5.5 TCF and for the Mand Raigarh and Tatapani-Ramkola blocks are 4.2 TCF and 1.9 TCF respectively.*

The estimated expenditure for the first phase of exploration of the three blocks awarded is in the tune of US$ 16 million (Indian Rupees 72 crores) out of which GAIL share would be in the tune of 6 million (Indian Rupees 27 crores). Exploration activities is expected to start in early 2007."_

Then we have the recent Development with EIG investing into 1/3 of Arrows CBM fields.

*$225 million proposed investment into Arrow CSG Acreage*

_The Directors of Arrow Energy NL “Arrow” are pleased to announce the signing of a Letter of Intent “LOI” with EIG Energy Infrastructure Group AB “EIG” of Sweden for a farm-in to a portfolio of predominantly exploration coal seam gas assets in the Eastern coastal region of Queensland.

The assets to be subject to the 50:50 joint venture between Arrow and EIG include:

• tenements in the Clarence Moreton and Coastal Queensland basins;
• the Dundee Project; and
• Daandine Power Generation Project.

EIG will contribute $150 million to the joint venture for the rapid exploration, appraisal and, potentially, development of the portfolio of assets. EIG will sole fund joint venture costs until such time as the $150 million of funds is spent, including an upfront reimbursement to Arrow of all costs incurred by Arrow on the assets since March 2006. Subsequent expenditure beyond
the $150m will revert to a 50:50 split.

EIG will also pay up to $75 million to Arrow by way of three milestone bonuses of $25 million each on achieving certification of 250 PJ, 500 PJ and 750 PJ (all cumulative) of gross 2P gas reserves on the portfolio of assets.
The tenements represent approximately 1/3 of Arrow’s current tenement acreage, the majority of which are still at the exploration and appraisal stage. A map showing the assets to be farmed out is attached to this announcement.

EIG is one of Arrow’s current joint venture partners in the Indian Coal Bed Methane blocks recently awarded under the CBM III licensing round in late 2006. The LOI also allows for later participation in EIG’s farm-in by the other International partners of Arrow and EIG. However, any such participation would not alter the terms of the arrangement from Arrow’s perspective.
The LOI targets financial close on the farm in by the end of March 2007 and further details will be released at that time. EIG’s investment_

Cash Position as stated from their Quarterly Report Ending 31st Dec.

_"At the end of December 2006:

*Arrows cash position stood at 65.1 Million
Drawn down debt of 21 Million
Un-drawn debt facilities available of 5 Million
They will also be receiving a re-imbursement from Australian Pipeline Trust of approx 18 Million.*"_

There is so much happening with Arrow its amazing the potential growth the company has.

Lets show a reminder of the achievements in 2006

•Successful merger with CH4
•46% increase in share price
•Over 100 wells drilled
•Over $160m funding raised
•Three new producing projects
•Three Indian blocks awarded with net resources up to 500 MMBOE (approx 10 TCF gas gross)
•Joint GTL concept study agreed with Alcan
•Plans in place to target $100m annual EBITDA by FY 2010
•Significant reserves upgrades achieved

Then we have the additional farm-in option to Sumatra and the investment in Global CBM.

_Arrow Energy (ASX:AOE) has an option to farm into 12 of Sugico Graha PT's tenements in Sumatra, Indonesia, to earn up to a 65 per cent interest in each.

The projects consist of 12 coal mining permits in the South Sumatra Basin covering approximately 140,000 hectares.  Regulations governing exploration and development of coal bed methane are currently in preparation and expected to be finalised in thefirst quarter of 2007._

_Global is in the advanced stages of business development for the acquisition of coal bed methane (CBM) assets in Indonesia, China, Vietnam and India. Under the agreement Arrow and Global's international business development teams and opportunities will be merged into Global which will be renamed Arrow Global CBM Pty Ltd. _

Add all this together and Arrow's market cap stands at 755 Million.  The management team is a team to be desired by most companies..they have achieved so much in such little time.  Thats a little re-cap for those of you who are thinking of investing in Arrow and hopefully you can see the future potential of this company as I see it.


----------



## LifeisShort (4 March 2007)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> There has got to be news soon on Arrows Indian Tenements.  Nothing has slowed Arrow down.  Below is some information on their Indian assets which is only one of their major projects they have running.  They have so much going for them.
> 
> _"The consortia won the three blocks amidst stiff competition from various major domestic and international players. Out of the three blocks, one block is in Rajmahal Coal field, Jharkhand and the other two blocks are in Mand Raigarh and Tata Pani Ramkola Coal fields, Chattishgarh.
> 
> ...




Agreed Chris. Should be a year of extreme growth for Arrow. On of my favourite stocks


----------



## chops_a_must (7 March 2007)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> Add all this together and Arrow's market cap stands at 755 Million.  The management team is a team to be desired by most companies..they have achieved so much in such little time.  Thats a little re-cap for those of you who are thinking of investing in Arrow and hopefully you can see the future potential of this company as I see it.



I still think this is a gem of a stock. I don't understand why it still trades lower than QGC. It has held up well and consolidated nicely above 1.30 during this period and I will be looking to increase my holdings of this one during "wave C". Possibly MEL as well. Gas stocks are a good place to be I think.

I understand that Arrow will retain a 50% stake in any international subsidiary, but will Australian Arrow holders be able to participate in any offering?

Very happy with the potential of this one.


----------



## LifeisShort (7 March 2007)

Nice announcement regarding GTL. Alcan and Arrow have come up with the thumbs up for more studies into feasability of the project but so far so good.


----------



## chris1983 (8 March 2007)

Some large buyers at the close.  One guy wants 500,000 shares at 1.36.  Now that aint petty cash 

I think the 1.40 mark will be breached soon.  It went up on the ALCAN annoucement..great announcement..but there is going to be a lot more news to come.  I'm still waiting for the update on the Indian tenements.  I keep saying that but any positive news in regards to India will see Arrow fly.


----------



## laurie (8 March 2007)

Somehow I think AOE sp is going to fly past QGC sp   

cheers laurie


----------



## chris1983 (8 March 2007)

laurie said:
			
		

> Somehow I think AOE sp is going to fly past QGC sp
> 
> cheers laurie





Based off market cap we have overtaken QGC.  Arrow have way more cash at bank though so they are actually very even companies based off market cap atm which is totally not right.  Arrow are going to have 225 million invested into their acreage by EIG of sweden and there will be more to come from GAIL.

From GAILS website there was a news article posted stating:

_"GAIL will be investing about Rs 500 crore for 50 per cent stake in four CBM "areas" currently owned by Arrow Energy in Australia, which are at various stages of exploration and production."_

This was back towards the end of 2006 and there has been no update since.  They have since taken this news article down because a few of us from another forum site wrote to the Arrow management about it but never got a response.  They will have two huge companies in GAIL and EIG pushing funds into arrows Australian tenements.  This is worth a lot to the company.  IMO Arrow should have a substantially larger market cap than QGC.  This will eventuate IMO.

The international exposure and further projects Arrow have on the cards should surely push them well above QGC.  Thats just my opinion.


----------



## chris1983 (8 March 2007)

News below.  Arrow have broken their previous high of 1.39 and ran to 1.42 but they have pulled back a bit from the open. 

_Arrow Global CBM Pty Ltd (“AGCBM”) and Orion Energy (“Orion”) have signed a Letter of Intent for broad ranging co-operation in China. Orion is a US based privately owned energy company specializing in Coal Bed Methane (“CBM”) operations and services, operating solely in China. It is the largest provider of horizontal drilling services to the rapidly growing Chinese CBM industry and is also the owner of two CBM concessions. 

Under the terms of the LOI : 

• AGCBM and Orion will perform a joint technical and commercial study of two concession blocks, in China’s premiere CBM basins of Ordos and Qinshu, in which Orion already has 70% upstream working interest. Arrow will earn 5% share in both of these blocks by virtue of performing the study and will have an option to farm in for a further 25% based on funding a work program to be agreed, up to a maximum of $10 million; 

• Orion will act as Arrow’s partner and representative in China and will use their significant in-country relationships to help consolidate and grow the combined companies businesses in China; and 

• The two companies will look for a broad range of additional opportunities in the CBM industry in China using both companies’ extensive data bases and have the intent to grow a significant, multi asset, business together. It is anticipated that the study phase of the farm-in will be completed within 2 months. Following successful completion of the farm-in, these assets will become part of the portfolio of AGCBM. AGCBM is also in the advanced stages of business development in Indonesia and Vietnam and is targeting adding these assets to the portfolio. It is planned that the AGCBM portfolio together with the existing Arrow India assets will form part of the proposed partial IPO of Arrow International later this year. Arrow Energy N.L. recently acquired 50% of the issued capital of Arrow Global CBM Pty Ltd, and has a 2 year option to acquire the remaining 50% shareholding._


----------



## chris1983 (12 March 2007)

Hit 1.43.

I dont need to say anymore.  This stock is a winner.


----------



## chris1983 (12 March 2007)

*Arrow signs LOU with leading Indonesian Energy Company MedcoEnergi*

Arrow Global CBM Pty Ltd (“AGCBM”) and PT Medco E&P Indonesia (“Medco”) have signed a Letter of Understanding (“LOU”) for broad ranging cooperation in Coal Bed Methane (“CBM”) in South Sumatra, Indonesia.
Medco is Indonesia’s leading independent Oil and Gas Company with daily production of more than 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent and a market capitalization of more than US$1.2 billion. Medco is also the owner of a number of oil and gas tenements in the South Sumatra Basin in an area that is also highly prospective for CBM. Medco, in conjunction with the government research organization Lemigas, is already conducting a CBM pilot in this area

Under the terms of the LOU:
• An area of approximately 1,200 square kilometres in South Sumatra is defined for mutual cooperation;
• The companies will perform a joint commercial and technical due diligence study of the area;
• Pending the results of the study, Arrow and Medco will finalise a commercial arrangement between the two companies to monetize CBM resources in the target area; and
• It is intended to complete the studies and sign a Joint Venture arrangement by the end of April 2007.
Consultant studies have estimated that the coal resources of the South Sumatra Basin contain up to 120 Trillion Cubic Feet of CBM. Involvement in this basin is a key part of AGCBM’s strategy. This agreement complements the agreement with PT Sugico Graha in the same basin, announced late last year.

It is planned that the AGCBM portfolio together with the existing Arrow India assets will form part of the proposed partial IPO of Arrow International later this year.

Arrow Energy N.L. recently acquired 50% of the issued capital of Arrow Global CBM Pty Ltd, and has a 2 year option to acquire the remaining 50% shareholding.

About PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk:
PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk. (“MedcoEnergi”) is an integrated energy company with business involvement in oil and gas exploration and production, drilling services, methanol production and most recently, power generation.
In 2004, MedcoEnergi acquired Novus Petroleum Limited – an Australian oil and gas company managing productive fields in Indonesia, Australia, Oman and UAE.


----------



## chris1983 (14 March 2007)

There was a ferrets stock to watch put out on Arrow this morning.  See below.  Arrow hit a low of 1.415 this morning and have just hits its 52 week high of 1.50 on a day where the ASX has fallen more than 100 points.  See article below.  There was more in regards to the SP movements but I havnt added them.

_Ferret has often alerted investors to the potential of Arrow Energy NL (ASX:AOE) which is involved in the exploration, appraisal and development of coal seam gas (CSG) projects within Queensland and northern NSW and now around the globe.

The share price has rocketed over the past year and received big push after the company signed two letters of understanding, one with an Indonesian company and another with a Chinese operation. This week the Indonesian deal surfaced with Arrow Global CBM Pty Ltd (AGCBM) and PT Medco E&P Indonesia signing a Letter of Understanding for broad ranging cooperation in Coal Bed Methane (CBM) in South Sumatra,Indonesia.

Medco is Indonesia's leading independent oil and gas company with daily production of more than 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent and a market capitalisation of more than $US1.2 billion.  Medco is also the owner of a number of oil and gas tenements in the South Sumatra Basin in an area that is also highly prospective for CBM.

Medco, in conjunction with the government research organisation Lemigas, is already conducting a CBM pilot in this area.

Under the terms of the LOU:
* An area of approximately 1,200 square kilometres in South Sumatra is defined for mutual cooperation;

* The companies will perform a joint commercial and technical due diligence study of the area;

* Pending the results of the study, Arrow and Medco will finalise a commercial arrangement between the two companies to monetise 
CBM resources in the target area; and

* It is intended to complete the studies and sign a joint venture arrangement by the end of April.  Consultant studies have estimated that the coal resources of the South Sumatra Basin contain up to 120 trillion cubic feet of CBM.

Involvement in this basin is a key part of AGCBM's strategy.    

This agreement complements the agreement with PT Sugico Graha in the same basin, announced late last year. It is planned that the AGCBM portfolio together with the existing Arrow India assets will form part of the proposed partial IPO of Arrow International later this year. Arrow Energy recently acquired 50 per cent of the issued capital of Arrow Global CBM, and has a two-year option to acquire the remaining 50 per cent shareholding.

The other development emerged last week with AGCBM and Orion Energy signing a letter of intent for broad ranging co-operation in China.  Orion is a US-based privately owned energy company specialising in operations and services, operating solely in China.  It is the largest provider of horizontal drilling services to the rapidly growing Chinese CBM industry and is also the owner of two CBM concessions.

Under the terms of the LOI:
* AGCBM and Orion will perform a joint technical and commercial study of two concession blocks in China's premiere CBM basins of Ordos and Qinshu, in which Orion already has 70 per cent upstream working interest. Arrow will earn a 5 per cent share in both of these blocks by virtue of performing the study and will have an option to farm in for a further 25 per cent based on funding a work program to be agreed, up to a maximum of $10 million;

* Orion will act as Arrow's partner and representative in China and will use its significant in-country relationships to help consolidate and grow the combined companies businesses in China; and

* The two companies will look for a broad range of additional opportunities in the CBM industry in China using both companies' extensive data bases and have the intent to grow a significant, multi asset, business together.

It is anticipated that the study phase of the farm-in will be completed within two months.  Following successful completion of the farm-in, these assets 
will become part of the portfolio of AGCBM.  AGCBM is also in the advanced stages of business development in Indonesia and Vietnam and is targeting adding these assets to the portfolio._


----------



## nizar (14 March 2007)

Did you see that??
2*2,000,000 trades gone through at 3:22 and 3:32

Thats $6million at $1.50 and i dont think its mum and dads...

And thats what i call smart money, the price didnt even budge.


----------



## Jimminy (14 March 2007)

cross trades Nizar.


----------



## nioka (14 March 2007)

Jimminy said:
			
		

> cross trades Nizar.



Trades never the less. A willing buyer and a willing seller.


----------



## nizar (14 March 2007)

Jimminy said:
			
		

> cross trades Nizar.




Correct LOL i shouldve checked that first.
A mate of mine loaded up the truck thinking its an imminent takeover after i told him about those 2 trades, damn what am i gonna tell him now


----------



## chris1983 (14 March 2007)

nizar said:
			
		

> Correct LOL i shouldve checked that first.
> A mate of mine loaded up the truck thinking its an imminent takeover after i told him about those 2 trades, damn what am i gonna tell him now




cross trades?  Dunworry Nizar he wont lose on AOE.  Its broken out on good volume.  I think it will continue to run.


----------



## chris1983 (14 March 2007)

Look at the buyer depth at the close.  Looking extremely bullish for tomorrow.  Over 900k shares are wanted 1.49 an up.  Hardly any shares on the sell side.


----------



## chris1983 (15 March 2007)

Hitting new highs daily


----------



## laurie (15 March 2007)

laurie said:
			
		

> Somehow I think AOE sp is going to fly past QGC sp
> 
> cheers laurie




Well I got that right   

cheers laurie


----------



## chris1983 (15 March 2007)

I think Arrow have strategically alligned themselves to be a huge company for the future.  This year I think has been seen by management to secure as much exploration ground as they can.  They have sealed deals with some of the major gas companies around the world forming strong partnerships.  There has been an ongoing trend since they secured the CBM Blocks in India.  Lots of international activity for Arrow and then they have their Australian assets which are progressing extremely well.  Arrow Energy can't do no wrong right now.  Below shows some of the major movements they have made internationally.



*Arrow Wins 3 Blocks in Indian CBMIII Bid Round*

*The partners involved are as follows*

_About GAIL: Majority-owned by the Indian government, GAIL (India) Ltd. is India's principal natural gas transmission and marketing company. Its activities encompass gas processing for fractionating LPG, propane, SBP solvent and pentane; transmission of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG); petrochemicals like HDPE and LLDPE; and leasing bandwidth in telecommunications. The company has extended its presence in power, liquefied natural gas (LNG) re-gasification, city gas distribution and exploration and production through equity and joint ventures participations.
_

_About Tata Power: The largest private power utility in India, Tata Power Co. Ltd.’s core business is to generate, transmit and distribute electricity. The company operates in two business segments: Power and Other. The power segment is engaged in generation, transmission and distribution of electricity, while the other segment includes electronic equipment, broadband services, project consultancy and oil exploration.
_

_About EIG: EIG is a privately owned energy asset holding company based in Sweden with energy development subsidiaries active in Asia-Pacific. Associate companies are engaged in oil and gas exploration and production (UK North Sea and Africa) specialising in heavy oil extraction and processing of heavy residues using proprietary technologies. EIG is 35 per cent owned by International Energy Holdings AG of Switzerland.
_


*Arrow Takes Strategic Option to Farm-In to Indonesian Coal Bed Methane Projects.* _(Arrow Energy has reached an agreement with Sugico Graha, PT (Sugico), which provides Arrow with an option to farm-in to twelve of Sugico’s tenements in South Sumatra, Indonesia to earn up to a 65% interest in each.)_


*Arrow Energy taking stake in Global CBM*


*Arrow and Sweden's EIG agreement on Qld gas assets*_ $225 Million Investment Into Arrow CSG Acreage_

*Arrow, Alcan joint study supports Qld plant proposition*


*Arrow Energy to farm into two blocks in China* _(LOI with Orion Energy for broad ranging co-operation in China.)_


*Arrow in Indonesian coal gas deal*
_(Arrow Energy (AOE) and PT Medco E&P Indonesia have signed a Letter of Understanding for broad ranging cooperation in Coal Bed Methane in South Sumatra, Indonesia.  Medco is Indonesia's leading independent Oil and Gas Company with daily production of more than 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent and a market capitalisation of more than US$1.2 billion.  Medco is also the owner of a number of oil and gas tenements in the South Sumatra Basin in an area that is also highly prospective for CBM.)_


----------



## LifeisShort (15 March 2007)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> I think Arrow have strategically alligned themselves to be a huge company for the future.......]




You've got to love Arrow. I do.....the only mistake I did was not buy enough of it....did you see that million dollar trade...its still on the market.....the confidence shown in this company is growing by the day


----------



## chops_a_must (15 March 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> You've got to love Arrow. I do.....the only mistake I did was not buy enough of it....did you see that million dollar trade...its still on the market.....the confidence shown in this company is growing by the day



Thanks for the great posts in here Chris, and the comment in the other thread. Another opinion on MEL and the like will be more than appreciated.

Life, I bought in again this morning. I realise it's unlikely to come back down to these levels even if we see another drop. The only thing that concerns me is that the chart is looking rather vertical. I would like to see some sideways movement with big volume, rather than it getting over-extended. I really do like this stock though, have been a big fan (just wish I'd had the funds when I first spotted it  ) and it is just about my only set in stone long termer right now.

CSM stocks seem to be a really good place to be right now (QGC the only lagger). Check out the potential breakout thread if you're interested in some others.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (15 March 2007)

Had a read through this thread for the first time, reads a lot like BMN in the early days. 
Well done Chris1983 and the rest, you guys certainly ride them out from start to finish bouncing your fundamental views along the way .

AOE looks like a bagger.


----------



## chris1983 (16 March 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Thanks for the great posts in here Chris, and the comment in the other thread. Another opinion on MEL and the like will be more than appreciated.
> 
> Life, I bought in again this morning. I realise it's unlikely to come back down to these levels even if we see another drop. The only thing that concerns me is that the chart is looking rather vertical. I would like to see some sideways movement with big volume, rather than it getting over-extended. I really do like this stock though, have been a big fan (just wish I'd had the funds when I first spotted it  ) and it is just about my only set in stone long termer right now.
> 
> CSM stocks seem to be a really good place to be right now (QGC the only lagger). Check out the potential breakout thread if you're interested in some others.




Hey Chops.  My dad owns MEL from 60 cents.  Looks good.  Congrats with them.  I have to read further into them before I make comments.  I'm thinking of jumping onboard from the little bit of knowledge I have read about them.  I'm a little bit annoyed with MPO because I liked them ever since the BHP guy joined the company.  I knew the BHP CBM expert wouldnt go into them for nothing.  Theres money to be made in CBM for sure.. but Arrow is the best in regards to international projects.  

I just went onto the Arrow website and there is a recent report released by Wilson HTM Investment Group on the 12th of March with a buy out on Arrow at 1.37.  The report is an excellent read for those who want an in depth overview of what Arrow have. There is a nice Tenure Map image showing the acreage Arrow have an interest in and its fair to say they have a huge acreage in Queensland for their CBM projects.

See the link to the report below

http://www.arrowenergy.com.au/documents/819.pdf


----------



## chris1983 (16 March 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Had a read through this thread for the first time, reads a lot like BMN in the early days.
> Well done Chris1983 and the rest, you guys certainly ride them out from start to finish bouncing your fundamental views along the way .
> 
> AOE looks like a bagger.




Thanks Freeballing.  Yeah..have to try and find one you can keep over a year.  Dont want the government taking that 30% TAX off me


----------



## nizar (16 March 2007)

Breather b4 the next leg up?


----------



## chris1983 (16 March 2007)

nizar said:
			
		

> Breather b4 the next leg up?




Probably.  Investors are still buying at these levels so its good.  Consolidation around this price is healthy but the usual trend over the past week has been early retraces from profit takers and then it pushes upwards later in the day.  Be interesting to see if it can keep up the momentum.


----------



## chops_a_must (26 March 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Probably.  Investors are still buying at these levels so its good.  Consolidation around this price is healthy but the usual trend over the past week has been early retraces from profit takers and then it pushes upwards later in the day.  Be interesting to see if it can keep up the momentum.



Yeah, looks to be setting up the low 1.50s as really good support. Quite healthy I think. Pretty much what I wanted when I posted above. And more really good news today.... again:



> Arrow and Beach boost Braemar gas sales
> 
> Monday, 26 March 2007
> 
> ...



Golden eggs anyone?


----------



## laurie (26 March 2007)

Market not happy with news for some unknown reason  

cheers laurie


----------



## nioka (26 March 2007)

laurie said:


> Market not happy with news for some unknown reason
> 
> cheers laurie




Sales of gas in Queensland, or Australia for that matter, are not all that good as the price is very low compared to world pricing. AOE's past price rises are mainly due to the overseas potential. The local sales do provide a sound base. That is how I see it.


----------



## laurie (26 March 2007)

nioka said:


> Sales of gas in Queensland, or Australia for that matter, are not all that good as the price is very low compared to world pricing. AOE's past price rises are mainly due to the overseas potential. The local sales do provide a sound base. That is how I see it.




yeh good point nioka I noticed that India price is heaps more than Qld hence why AOE is there and really that was Santos motive in the first place for QGC so why is it low too much gas, too many players, or Government controlled

cheers laurie


----------



## chris1983 (29 March 2007)

Announcement out.  Headline below.

*44% Increase in 2P Gas Reserves *

I havnt seen the actual announcement yet but the headline itself looks great   Should see some movement today i would think with this news.


----------



## chris1983 (29 March 2007)

Some big players coming into Arrow again.

1.71 and rising.  This is great to watch.


----------



## LifeisShort (29 March 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Some big players coming into Arrow again.
> 
> 1.71 and rising.  This is great to watch.




I think we are getting close to the magic $1 billion valuation for Arrow.....those who stuck with it from early days would be crying by now. What a fabulous story....and more to come


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (29 March 2007)

Yes, a fabulous day with appreciation.


----------



## chops_a_must (29 March 2007)

LifeisShort said:


> I think we are getting close to the magic $1 billion valuation for Arrow.....those who stuck with it from early days would be crying by now. What a fabulous story....and more to come




Yah, this is beginning to look like an absolute goliath of a company. I am really surprised no one has looked at taking this one over (not that I want them to), but surely it is still trading at a massive discount to its actual worth.

They may even look at taking out some other companies if they become cashed up from some of their sale agreements.


----------



## laurie (30 March 2007)

NHC owns 18.8% good starting point for a T/O

cheers laurie


----------



## chris1983 (4 April 2007)

Broken over the previous high of 1.79.  Could some news in relation to their Indian prospects be on the cards?  Looking forward to an update.  Nick Davies won't dissapoint us.


----------



## LifeisShort (4 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Broken over the previous high of 1.79.  Could some news in relation to their Indian prospects be on the cards?  Looking forward to an update.  Nick Davies won't dissapoint us.




Chris,

I think its the Investor TV presentation. Great work by the Arrow team. What a fantastic job they have done. Indonesia, India and now they want China. Wow


----------



## chris1983 (4 April 2007)

LifeisShort said:


> Chris,
> 
> I think its the Investor TV presentation. Great work by the Arrow team. What a fantastic job they have done. Indonesia, India and now they want China. Wow




Yeah your right LIS.  I was thinking of selling a small portion of my Arrow and trying to find another good spec play..but they just look so good atm.  Go Arrow


----------



## chops_a_must (4 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Yeah your right LIS.  I was thinking of selling a small portion of my Arrow and trying to find another good spec play..but they just look so good atm.  Go Arrow




Dude no. Lol! This could so easily double from here. 

But it is rather funny. AED moves half a percent on confirmation of a massive reserve, yet AOE moves upwards of 15% on a T.V. interview and a reminder of what we already knew. Lol! The market is a funny beast.


----------



## laurie (4 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Dude no. Lol! This could so easily double from here.
> 
> But it is rather funny. AED moves half a percent on confirmation of a massive reserve, yet AOE moves upwards of 15% on a T.V. interview and a reminder of what we already knew. Lol! The market is a funny beast.




chops_a_must

I think the market already valued the oil into AED it will slowly make its way up until production starts in June then I think it will move along as it then would become a cash cow  

cheers laurie


----------



## chris1983 (4 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Dude no. Lol! This could so easily double from here.
> 
> But it is rather funny. AED moves half a percent on confirmation of a massive reserve, yet AOE moves upwards of 15% on a T.V. interview and a reminder of what we already knew. Lol! The market is a funny beast.





haha..not selling yet.  I have to wait another 2 months untill I have held them for a year.  15% tax sounds a whole lot better than 30%.  Then I'll try to find another one like Arrow.  I'll only sell 1/4 of my arrow.  I could free carry the rest of them from the 1/4 I would sell.  What a story for Arrow.  Go Nick Davies!


----------



## LifeisShort (4 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> haha..not selling yet.  I have to wait another 2 months untill I have held them for a year.  15% tax sounds a whole lot better than 30%.  Then I'll try to find another one like Arrow.  I'll only sell 1/4 of my arrow.  I could free carry the rest of them from the 1/4 I would sell.  What a story for Arrow.  Go Nick Davies!




I think there is plenty of growth, like the presentation acknowledged this is stage 5 international growth. One still has to put this into perspective and say its market cap is 1 billion and time for some profits and find a new exciting company. I'm holding for the rest of the year


----------



## chris1983 (4 April 2007)

LifeisShort said:


> I think there is plenty of growth, like the presentation acknowledged this is stage 5 international growth. One still has to put this into perspective and say its market cap is 1 billion and time for some profits and find a new exciting company. I'm holding for the rest of the year




Yeah.  They still have to run past QGC's market cap.  They deserve to be worth more.  Further to run yet.  A lot further to run.  I think I'll continue to hold.  But yes I will eventually sell 1/4 of my holding and look for another company that will also have the potential of turning into a huge company like what Arrow is doing.


----------



## siempre33 (5 April 2007)

Arrow now in 5th stage of growth according to CEO Nick Davies.....video..

http://www.investortv.com.au/player.aspx?CT15


----------



## Jimminy (5 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Yeah.    But yes I will eventually sell 1/4 of my holding and look for another company that will also have the potential of turning into a huge company like what Arrow is doing.




Good luck with that - suggest you look at those to supply the NSW market as a future growth area for stocks in the next few years. ESG & MEL being two.


----------



## chris1983 (5 April 2007)

Jimminy said:


> Good luck with that - suggest you look at those to supply the NSW market as a future growth area for stocks in the next few years. ESG & MEL being two.




Thanks Jimminy.  Had my eye on MEL for awhile.  Execellent performer of late.  I'm even thinking MPO due to their stance in China and strong management team.  For now I'll stick with Arrow.


----------



## chris1983 (17 April 2007)

Steady she goes..crossing back over $2 soon.  Okay it just crossed..now lets see her hold above this level.


----------



## chris1983 (17 April 2007)

Somethings a cooking.  Hitting the previous high..lets see if it will push through.


----------



## chris1983 (17 April 2007)

I dont know if I added this link to the Wilson HTM Research report made on the 12th of March 2007.  Have a read.

http://www.arrowenergy.com.au/documents/819.pdf

Interesting thing to note on page 9 of the report is

*Summary of Upside to our Valuation*_
o Conversion of Surat Basin projects’ P3 resources into 2P - $0.82 per share.
o GTL or CTL project development - $0.70 per share.
o Value of Global CBM (at exploration stage) - $0.80 per share.

Collectively the projects and developments outlined above could add up to about $2.32 to our dcf value of $1.68 and target price of $1.79 depending on AOE’s eventual equity interests._

Looking good.


----------



## nizar (17 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> I'm even thinking MPO due to their stance in China and strong management team.




Please buy MPO coz i hold a few and everything youve touched is a multibagger so far (AOE, BMN, ERN).


----------



## chris1983 (17 April 2007)

nizar said:


> Please buy MPO coz i hold a few and everything youve touched is a multibagger so far (AOE, BMN, ERN).




Hey you forgot AGM. haha   I never did any major write ups on that one though.  I like MPO.  Look at the ex BHP cbm team move into that company.  They have some good things going for them.  I just dont hold..was seriously thinking about it though.  Still am.  AOE are still cheap though NIZ.  This is going to be a big bluechip company.  An up and comer.  One to add to the portfolio and lock away.  I sold 1/4 of my holding to free carry the rest and have some more play money but the rest go away for the long term now.


----------



## chris1983 (19 April 2007)

The price rise in Arrow of late may be related to a deal coming into fruition with GAIL very soon.  I was doing some searching and found the following information.

_*Gas Authority of India Ltd (GAIL)*

--Arrow Energy has offered 10 CBM permits in Australia for joint participation by GAIL and other interested companies. As per the initial proposal. Arrow would contribute assets and other partners would contribute capital. The offer is being evaluated by GAIL along with EIG and Tata Power. 

--GAIL has broached discussions with Australian LNG Companies and new project developers such as North West Shelf Australia LNG Pty Ltd, Woodside Energy and the Gorgon project for supply of LNG to India. 

--GAIL is actively considering participation in the forthcoming bidding round in Australia, scheduled in May, 2007, along with other interested E&P companies.

--During the Indo-Australian Joint Commission meeting held in June, 2005, the two sides agreed to undertake a joint study to evaluate the potential for natural gas trade between India and Australia. GAIL, as a coordinator, finalised the scope of work for the study in discussion with Australian and Indian companies._

Sourced from

http://72.14.235.104/search?q=cache...+"gail"+"australia"&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=18&gl=au


----------



## chris1983 (19 April 2007)

*Arrow Energy NL To Replace Sydney Roads Group In The S&P/ASX 200*

_Sydney, April 19, 2007—Standard & Poor’s today announced the removal of Sydney Roads Group (ASX: SRG) from the S&P/ASX indices after the takeover offer by Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) became unconditional. Sydney Roads Group will be removed from the S&P/ASX indices after the close of business on April 27, 2007.

Sydney Roads Group will be replaced in the S&P/ASX 200 index by Arrow Energy NL (ASX: AOE), effective after the close of business on April 27, 2007. Arrow Energy NL is a gas exploration and development company._

Bring on the fundies.


----------



## chris1983 (20 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> *Arrow Energy NL To Replace Sydney Roads Group In The S&P/ASX 200*
> 
> _Sydney, April 19, 2007””Standard & Poor’s today announced the removal of Sydney Roads Group (ASX: SRG) from the S&P/ASX indices after the takeover offer by Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) became unconditional. Sydney Roads Group will be removed from the S&P/ASX indices after the close of business on April 27, 2007.
> 
> ...




Dissapointed with Arrow not holding the $2 benchmark.  Not dissapointed with the progression of the company.  Looking forward to the 27th of April when the company is added to the ASX200


----------



## chops_a_must (23 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Dissapointed with Arrow not holding the $2 benchmark.  Not dissapointed with the progression of the company.  Looking forward to the 27th of April when the company is added to the ASX200




I wouldn't worry about it Chris.  

As I said to Niz on another thread, since the the last push up through 1.20, the SP has been squeezed between the top bollinger band and the close moving average. The last move pushed it quite a way away from the close MA. It may touch this again during the week, possibly even the day it gets put on the ASX 200.  My tip after it does this, is that it will climb again.

The dip down has been on rather low volume as well. Which tells you just as much as anything else. The only problem that I can see is that it is very tall on the weekly. But I don't think this matters so much as the indicators here are lagging the rapidly improving fundamentals by a fair margin.

If I can, I might just put a bid in the depth at the low to mid 1.90s for a short term trade. But if it performs like my other buys of AOE... it might find a home in with the now long termers.

AOE came within 1c of hitting my stop at one stage.   Would be spewing now if it had. Lol!  

Another positive I think for this company, and SP, is the sense I am picking up around the traps that this one is going to be a dead set long term performer. Still one of the best ones I can see... But it means that the supply of the stock is becoming limited... and buyers will eventually have to fight hard to get in... like they have had to have done the last month or so.


----------



## nizar (27 April 2007)

Bit of volume on todays sell off.
Since i bought at just about the absolute top, I think maybe i should sell some on monday to get her moving UP again   LOL!


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## UraniumLover (28 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> I wouldn't worry about it Chris.
> 
> As I said to Niz on another thread, since the the last push up through 1.20, the SP has been squeezed between the top bollinger band and the close moving average. The last move pushed it quite a way away from the close MA. It may touch this again during the week, possibly even the day it gets put on the ASX 200.  My tip after it does this, is that it will climb again.
> 
> ...




I've got this one on my watch list to get in after the DOW, China correction which is due in May i believe. I've experienced enough pain in the past on this month to realise taking new postions around now is risky unless it has fallen significantly and stablised. It's fallen around 17 % fom it's high with major buying at 1.80.  May put a small parcel around this mark if it stablises..
Fishing around 1.80


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## chris1983 (28 April 2007)

UraniumLover said:


> I've got this one on my watch list to get in after the DOW, China correction which is due in May i believe. I've experienced enough pain in the past on this month to realise taking new postions around now is risky unless it has fallen significantly and stablised. It's fallen around 17 % fom it's high with major buying at 1.80.  May put a small parcel around this mark if it stablises..
> Fishing around 1.80




Arrow is one of those stocks that hold firm during the corrections.  Having been in a number of corrections Arrow has either held its ground or gone against the negative trend and moved up in price.  The last correction Arrow went up quite a lot.

IMO there isn't much risk in this stock.  Its a simple buy and hold.  It is being added to the ASX200 on monday so the fundies will now have it on their radar.  Good luck if you decide to take a position....I really don't think any luck is needed though.


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## UraniumLover (28 April 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Arrow is one of those stocks that hold firm during the corrections.  Having been in a number of corrections Arrow has either held its ground or gone against the negative trend and moved up in price.  The last correction Arrow went up quite a lot.
> 
> IMO there isn't much risk in this stock.  Its a simple buy and hold.  It is being added to the ASX200 on monday so the fundies will now have it on their radar.  Good luck if you decide to take a position....I really don't think any luck is needed though.




Looking at the graph it handled the last correction well.. 
Has a sort of IMD feel about it which booms in times of doom lol 
Still needs to stablise. Long term fundamentals solid. Wouldn't expect anything less from a stock you hold as I know you do the research.


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## chris1983 (28 April 2007)

It definately has come down a bit though hasn't it.  Didnt even realise untill I looked at the chart.  From the chart it looks as if it ran too hot.  Thanks for the compliment in regards to my research.  I did sell 1/4 of my holding to free carry the rest.  I'm holding the rest for quite some time to see how the company progresses..I believe in the Arrow story.  It has too many things going for it.  If you read through all the announcements since the merger with CH4..which was a brilliant move by Nick Davies I must add..anyway if you read through the announcements you can see the plan Nick Davies has in place.  He is building a larger international CBM play.  Excellent grounds in India/Indonesia/China..and I dont think he will stop.

Also has very strong partners with EIG/Tata power and GAIL.

EIG are allready investing a large amount of money into Arrows australian tenements and GAIL will be the ones to follow.


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## laurie (2 May 2007)

Good article in May Resource Stocks Magazine about AOE  

cheers laurie


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## chops_a_must (8 May 2007)

laurie said:


> Good article in May Resource Stocks Magazine about AOE
> 
> cheers laurie



I didn't end up getting this one in the post...

Is anyone able to put up a copy or give me the jist of it?

It looks as though there has been quite a bullish reversal pattern on the weekly charts, so people that like to enter of weekly charts might well be interested at looking at this. 

But people looking to get in lower will probably be disappointed, it looks to have quite bullish action on it right at this stage, it doesn't have a habit of dipping on corrections, and it now has very strong support at 1.86.

Hopefully we can see this well and truly in the mid $2 range before long, with its current range as long term support. I have a feeling the next run maybe the last for a while though, as this searches for a long term range. Not that I'm complaining, I'm sure I will be holding this one for years to come. It has done me proud, Lol!

Cheers,
Chops.


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## nizar (8 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> I didn't end up getting this one in the post...
> 
> Is anyone able to put up a copy or give me the jist of it?
> 
> ...





I agree its found a bottom.
1.86ish clear support there.
ESG your other pick is also doing very well.
Check out MPO bro, its still going hard.


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## chops_a_must (8 May 2007)

nizar said:


> I agree its found a bottom.
> 1.86ish clear support there.
> ESG your other pick is also doing very well.
> Check out MPO bro, its still going hard.




I know! Looks like it could get to 20c quite easily.

I just don't have the money to put in right now.

I am seeing opportunities galore and just aren't able to capitalise right now.

PES is another ripper. Check out the shareholder makeup, you'll see why.


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## nizar (8 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> I know! Looks like it could get to 20c quite easily.
> 
> I just don't have the money to put in right now.
> 
> ...




I know every man woman and child is calling for a correction but the last time i saw this many breakouts it was november/december last year... and that was a few months before any correction.....


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## nizar (21 May 2007)

Finally this dog of mine is starting to move.
As usual, i caught the peak of the first breakout and paid >$2/share  
LOL


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## SGB (21 May 2007)

nizar said:


> Finally this dog of mine is starting to move.
> As usual, i caught the peak of the first breakout and paid >$2/share
> LOL




Hi Nizar,

Not trying to be disrespectful but it was a gutsy call at that peak because of its overbought condition..80 RSI.
There was a psychological barrier to contend with as well being $2.00 mark. If you follow the pattern from there, it found decent support at $1.90 which  gives confident  T/A traders to jump in to break the $2.00 resistance. With a higher high and the MACD crossing over in to a buy, there might be support at to hold $2.00 and reach the high. But have your trailing stops ready.
Good luck 
SGB


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## chops_a_must (21 May 2007)

nizar said:


> Finally this dog of mine is starting to move.
> As usual, i caught the peak of the first breakout and paid >$2/share
> LOL



Lol! Dog!!? 'Tis one of my best performing stocks.

The CSM sector as a whole looks like it is going on another run. QGC and AOE giving off some particularly bullish signals. But AOE looks healthier right now IMO. Mucking around with Fibs tonight, and they look to be lining up quite well. 

The longer term Fib levels from the beginning of the run in October... with numbers at 1.18, in the 1.30s and low 1.50s looks to be where previous resistance and support has been. 

The shorter term fib levels from the run since 1.50 gives us the recent 50% retracement low of 1.80 (1 cent off) and the rough average support and consolidation level from the 38.2% retrace at 1.87.

The extensions point to a run on about 2.50. I'd love that to happen... but we shall see...

Wouldn't mind the volume picking up... but there have been plenty of reversal signals (MACD turning bullish being the latest one) and it is behavng as it should. So it looks good from here.

Cheers,
Chops.


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## chris1983 (23 May 2007)

This one broke out yesterday.  Looking really good atm.  Its following a nice steady longterm trend.  I am still expecting some news in regards to India to be released soon.  There must be an update on these projects.  Maybe even GAIL announcing the farm-in agreements into Arrows Australian tenements?  We know it will be a big farm-in agreement..maybe similar or even bigger than the EIG Farm-in.


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## chops_a_must (24 May 2007)

chris1983 said:


> This one broke out yesterday.  Looking really good atm.  Its following a nice steady longterm trend.  I am still expecting some news in regards to India to be released soon.  There must be an update on these projects.  Maybe even GAIL announcing the farm-in agreements into Arrows Australian tenements?  We know it will be a big farm-in agreement..maybe similar or even bigger than the EIG Farm-in.



Pity it couldn't follow up with some good volume. The 127.2% line whacked it over the head by the looks. The only good thing about that is it validates the projection towards 2.50 in the medium term. The doji doesn't look good for this break in the short term however, and I would be very surprised if it didn't test 2.10 before moving on.

Cheers,
Chops.


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## chris1983 (28 May 2007)

Really powering atm.  Hitting all time highs again.  This is a very strong stock.  Lots of large buyers jumping in for a piece of the pie.


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## SGB (28 May 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Really powering atm.  Hitting all time highs again.  This is a very strong stock.  Lots of large buyers jumping in for a piece of the pie.




Agreed chris
I'm glad i got in at the 1.90 swing. Now into a triple top.
look forward to the comming action

Cheers


----------



## chris1983 (28 May 2007)

SGB said:


> Agreed chris
> I'm glad i got in at the 1.90 swing. Now into a triple top.
> look forward to the comming action
> 
> Cheers




Nice entry point SGB.  I also was trying to get more at that price level.  My margin loan took too long to get processed though!  Very annoyed!  I still have a decent holding in my own money though.  Managed to pick up some PNA at 52.5 so its all good   Maybe there is news on the way or maybe investors are just becoming aware of Arrows potential.  They were in the Sunday times..or the West Australian in WA as the largest percentage gainer in the ASX top 200.  So that would of given them a little more exposure.  I dont think these are mums and dads buying though.  Some very larger buyers have been going through.


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## SGB (28 May 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Nice entry point SGB.  I also was trying to get more at that price level.  My margin loan took too long to get processed though!  Very annoyed!  I still have a decent holding in my own money though.  Managed to pick up some PNA at 52.5 so its all good   Maybe there is news on the way or maybe investors are just becoming aware of Arrows potential.  They were in the Sunday times..or the West Australian in WA as the largest percentage gainer in the ASX top 200.  So that would of given them a little more exposure.  I dont think these are mums and dads buying though.  Some very larger buyers have been going through.




Yep
I noticed this morning a couple of 100000 parcels. Good signs. The gold players might be getting frustrated and switing codes.


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## Dukey (28 May 2007)

AOE has really surprised me since I finally got in about a month back.
I figured the big run had ended and expected a long term - slow and steady performer after the  last spectacular year. But she just keeps on rocketing!!!!!!!
Maybe there is something in the wind with the Indian deals.
They have a holding (14% ??) in PES too - which has gone from 20c at listing last year to high of 62 cents right now and looking good - so that won't hurt AOE at all either.
Nice days - good luck all holding...


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## chris1983 (28 May 2007)

Dukey said:


> AOE has really surprised me since I finally got in about a month back.
> I figured the big run had ended and expected a long term - slow and steady performer after the  last spectacular year. But she just keeps on rocketing!!!!!!!
> Maybe there is something in the wind with the Indian deals.
> They have a holding (14% ??) in PES too - which has gone from 20c at listing last year to high of 62 cents right now and looking good - so that won't hurt AOE at all either.
> Nice days - good luck all holding...




Good point Dukey to mention PES.  Im pretty sure they can hold a larger % of the company when they exercise the options they have.  I read it somewhere.  Anyway I think PES will be a takeover target for Arrow in the future.


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## Dukey (28 May 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Good point Dukey to emntion PES.  Im pretty sure they can hold a larger % of the company when they exercise the options they have.  I read it somewhere.  Anyway I think PES will be a takeover target for Arrow in the future.




Yeah - wish to hell I heard of PES before the float - maybe Sept? last year.
As it is I got in there a few weeks back (just after buying AOE) and have been VERY happy!!!!!  
The old faithful: QGC hasn't been too shabby lately either. 
the whole CSM sector is just going nuts.... is it time to start worrying yet?


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## chris1983 (28 May 2007)

Dukey said:


> Yeah - wish to hell I heard of PES before the float - maybe Sept? last year.
> As it is I got in there a few weeks back (just after buying AOE) and have been VERY happy!!!!!
> The old faithful: QGC hasn't been too shabby lately either.
> the whole CSM sector is just going nuts.... is it time to start worrying yet?




CSM is the future along with Uranium.  Im not worrying.  Energy stocks are the way to go.  India and China need energy which is why I really like Arrow.  they will become a large international player in the energy sector.  I had the opportunity to buy PES but never did.  No cash at that time..it has been a winner for holders though and a winner for Arrow.


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## ta2693 (28 May 2007)

chris1983 said:


> CSM is the future along with Uranium.  Im not worrying.  Energy stocks are the way to go.  India and China need energy which is why I really like Arrow.  they will become a large international player in the energy sector.  I had the opportunity to buy PES but never did.  No cash at that time..it has been a winner for holders though and a winner for Arrow.




Chinese found 2 very big oil & gas field around 1 billion ton each by using new technology. I read a report about that. The report said this technology can help oil company to find oil which is impossible to find in the past. I think even if another 1 billion ton oil field were found, China still would be short of energy in long term. but in short term, It is not a good news for oil company.


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## chris1983 (29 May 2007)

Announcement out and there was a UK Investor Presentation made by Arrow.  An excellent presentation.  I just had a read and is more than likely the reason for the strong buying.  Overseas investors know when they see or hear about a good thing.


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## svensk (29 May 2007)

Jumped on AOE about a week ago, she is running hot today :evilburn:

This is some consolation after exiting ern too early


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## Dukey (30 May 2007)

Surprised there has been no posting on AOE (or PES) threads today!!

Both shares jumped considerably on news of AOE signing a 'heads of agreement' (.. that term just makes no sense to me??)  with LNGI (liquified Natural Gas INternational and 'Golar' - Gas shipping company to supply gas for a proposed LNG plant at Gladstone.

AOE up 18c to $2.58 (maxed at 2.70 - all time high)
PES up 11c to 70c (maxed at 75c - all time high).

Both companies looking better all the time...


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## chris1983 (30 May 2007)

Dukey said:


> Surprised there has been no posting on AOE (or PES) threads today!!
> 
> Both shares jumped considerably on news of AOE signing a 'heads of agreement' (.. that term just makes no sense to me??)  with LNGI (liquified Natural Gas INternational and 'Golar' - Gas shipping company to supply gas for a proposed LNG plant at Gladstone.
> 
> ...




Been posting on other sites   Dont you worry I saw it run.  As I said on another forum I'm enjoying watching Arrow blossom into a large international energy company.  Its only the beginning.


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## chops_a_must (30 May 2007)

Dukey said:


> Surprised there has been no posting on AOE (or PES) threads today!!
> 
> Both shares jumped considerably on news of AOE signing a 'heads of agreement' (.. that term just makes no sense to me??)  with LNGI (liquified Natural Gas INternational and 'Golar' - Gas shipping company to supply gas for a proposed LNG plant at Gladstone.
> 
> ...




I bet you're glad you got into them! Had a choice of them or topping up on ESG. Should have gone with PES.  Ah well, I'll get them on a (if they) retrace. But the train may have left the station for them. 



chris1983 said:


> Been posting on other sites   Dont you worry I saw it run.  As I said on another forum I'm enjoying watching Arrow blossom into a large international energy company.  Its only the beginning.



Yep. Although I had no idea it would come about this quickly. I would have picked 5 or 6 dollars within a few years. But it looks like it could get to these levels a lot faster. It seems to be one of those companies that has projected/ almost certain earnings well in excess of the current market cap. Fantastic stuff. I can see this becoming one of the most important energy plays in Australia within a few years.

And in Agentm's language, "It's still absolutely fantastic buying at these levels!"

And just in case people missed it, the media release featuring the multi-billion dollar deal:



> Arrow gas for export market in multi-billion dollar LNG export deal
> 
> Arrow Energy N.L. will supply gas to a new liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) export facility planned for Queensland’s Port of Gladstone in a multi-billion dollar deal that has the potential to more than double Arrow’s forecast production and provides leverage to soaring oil prices.
> 
> ...




And the chart attached. I guess what has been notable about this run is the volume. It has been monumental, with for periods during today where people were buying whatever was on offer. To me this indicates that there is a different type of holder on board now... one that is looking for a big return on today's SP. This volume has not been seen since its breakout from 60c. But obviously... the dollar values per volume are exponentially larger now.

The projected levels have been pretty accurate so far. And given this was so strong on a down day, unless the world collapses, it may keep chugging on based on its momentum. The buying today was almost frenzied. So, the next price levels look to be just over $3. I for one didn't expect it to get to $2.50 so quickly... so I really have no idea where this could end up.

Cheers,
Chops.


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## laurie (30 May 2007)

This will bring smiles to Soul Paterson's 18.8% AOE holding via NHC    it was $58 on 31st Jan             

cheers laurie


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## Dukey (30 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> I bet you're glad you got into them! Had a choice of them or topping up on ESG. Should have gone with PES.  Ah well, I'll get them on a (if they) retrace. But the train may have left the station for them.
> .........................
> Cheers,
> Chops.




I am indeed glad chops. Both AOE and PES have gone better than I could have expected since I entered. Must've been in the right place at the right time!! (nice change that!) 
If the PES train hasn't left the station today - then it's sure building up some steam. The thing is these CSM powered trains seem to just keep going... faster ... and faster - so I'm sure it's not too late. Realistically, PES especially could settle or retrace a bit from here. But thats just a gut (?glut?) feeling.


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## chris1983 (31 May 2007)

Opened at 2.72..what a steam train...further ran to 2.76.  Amazing.  Some very larger buyers in there can see the long term potential of this stock.  Its had some very solid gains over the past week....


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## chris1983 (4 June 2007)

Um where have my posts gone?  Why were they deleted?  What was said wrong this time?  I dont understand why they have been removed?


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## chris1983 (4 June 2007)

Once again as I said earlier.  Arrow is breaking all time highs continuously. I dont see the reason for removing my previous posts.  Arrow are powering upwards and this is still with no news in regards to their international assets.  Arrow touched 2.98.  Very close to the $3 mark.  I dont think saying it could reach that level is a bad thing since it only came within 2 cents from touching the market.  Arrow are holding very firm atm.  Happy to be holding.  If you are going to remove this post private msg me and give me reason.  There is no ramp intended in this post.


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## chris1983 (5 June 2007)

A good article from the Herald Sun which is an interesting read.

http://www.arrowenergy.com.au/documents/892.pdf

I like this part of the article

_"The deal could be notionally worth up to $6.325 billion to Arrow Energy."_

Just a note in regards to Arrows Indian tenements..International Gas prices in India are some of the most expensive in the world.

6.00-11.00 per MCF with China following at

3.00-4.50 per MCF

Don't forget Arrow acquired some of the best CBM blocks available in the last bidding process.  We knew this would happen as they were bidding with GAIL a partial government owned company.  When the Governments on your side you get the best   There is still no news on these projects but I'm sure they are working heavily on a development strategy. 

The potential resource in the blocks they have won is 10 TCF as estimated by the Indian Government.

I would advise anyone looking to invest into Arrow to watch this video.

http://www.investortv.com.au/wl/vr.aspx?id=CMP100Z7G5CT15X97BYNW


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## Sprinter79 (6 June 2007)

I wonder why it's fallen 6% thus far today on the back of this news: 

"Arrow Energy NL has won a finals berth in Australia’s most prestigious environmental awards
with nominations for the company’s innovative recycling of coal seam gas waste water and
coal mine degassing in Queensland."

Just because they're doing something for the environment doesn't mean they're not cool hahah

(at least that's what their mum says


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## Dukey (6 June 2007)

AOE have run so much lately - a bit of a consolidation was to be expected i think & it aint necessarily a bad thing. More to do with a few profit takers than anything else I reckon. QGC went down with it accordingly.


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## Sprinter79 (6 June 2007)

Nah, i don't necessarily think it's a bad thing either. The energy sector is down nearly 0.5% on the day anyway.


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## chris1983 (8 June 2007)

Nice recovery by Arrow today after hitting a low of 2.63.  I really dont know what will stop this company.  During any correction of late Arrow has been really strong.  Even in the last market correction Arrow had a strong run and was one of the very few stocks to gain.  Energy is the sector to be in.  Thats just my opinion.  Go the energy stocks!  Gas and uranium.


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## chris1983 (13 June 2007)

A post taken from hotcopper.  Looks to be the reason for the rise today.

_"AGL CEO Paul Anthony said he wants to increase AGL's gas equity from its current 840PJ to 3000-4000PJ (from today's Australian Financial Review).

AGL approached Exxon and BHP to buy into the Gippsland Basin and got the cold shoulder - they dont want to sell. 

So AGL's options are very much reduced. AGL is being linked to a possible bid for Arrow Energy or a merger with Santos - the latter not being possible unless the SA Government lifts the 15% shareholder cap plus can expect Santos to make defensive acquisitions to keep itself as a standalone entity.

There is a race for gas going on. Expect some of the CSG small guys are going to be snapped up very soon."_


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## Col Lector (13 June 2007)

Gidday Chris, I'm in PES rather than AOE. But the Origin announcement mentioned may be even more significant for AOE.....
Origin Energy has just announced a 630MW gas-fired Darling Downs power station (near Braemar, west of Dalby) with pipeline adjacent the WalloonCoal Measures. Could be positive for future PES's 100% southern tenement ATP852P (near Spring gully). See Origin's ann 12/6/07

Doubt this the reason for PES current trading halt however


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## gunditrader (13 June 2007)

I would have thought QGC would be in the front running to benefit from any gas sales to Origin due to the 40% holding Origin have in a number of QGC fields being drilled and developed at the moment. Should come on for production at a similar time to this powerstation. 

I would think the same for the AGL reserves as well due to their holding in QGC. However these two factors a positive for the whole CSG industry at the moment. Very undervalued compared to other conventional energy sectors. Especially AOE


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## Col Lector (14 June 2007)

you seem indisputedly certain Smurf...do you see any future for pes/& aoe falloon csg?  maybe just vent it??


----------



## nizar (14 June 2007)

chris1983 said:


> A post taken from hotcopper.  Looks to be the reason for the rise today.
> 
> _"AGL CEO Paul Anthony said he wants to increase AGL's gas equity from its current 840PJ to 3000-4000PJ (from today's Australian Financial Review).
> 
> ...




Chris.
CSG guys to be snapped up soon -- Maybe MPO?  

Credit Suisse notes from Tuesday [Taken from a post at SS]
Climate Change
More than just politics
■ Climate change has become a ‘hot topic’. According to the Australian Greenhouse Office, 93% of the population are aware of climate change and 86% of Australians believe that action should be taken to reduce emissions.
■ The evidence to date strongly suggests to us that the climate change is caused by increased concentration of greenhouse gasses (CO2 being the main one) resulting from human activity, mainly burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.
■ The world can do one or more of the following three things: change the way we generate energy (supply side), change the way we use energy (demand side) and adapt to climate change. All of these things have costs associated with them and it is up to each country to choose their own way to tackle the problem, based on their own cost analysis.
■ The Australian Government has decided to head down the emission targeting and carbon trading path. The cost of such a scheme to Australia will depend on emission targets; the lower the target, the higher the cost.
■ An emission target schedule has not yet been set, but we do expect that the price of energy will rise and we should start thinking about companies affected by these upcoming changes.
*■ The value of companies producing most energy per unit of carbon should rise, depending on the price of carbon, in our view. Some examples of affected companies in the energy industry: gas (AGK, ORG, MPO, QGC, AOE), nuclear (PDN, ERA), wind (BBW), biofuel (ARW, NFL, ABJ) and solar.*
■ We note the same impact on companies that produce energy-saving technologies such as low(er) emission cars, engines, electric motors, generators, carbon filters, LED lights, gallium, insulation products. There are very few listed plays on this theme in Australia, but there are plenty globally. Some Australian examples are CSR, BLG, CFU and SLX.
■ The cost will likely be borne mainly by households and to a lesser degree businesses. As the price of energy rises over time, energy-intensive users will be hit the hardest. At $20/ton of CO2, we estimate the cost to Australia will be around A$6bn or about 0.6% of GDP per annum.
■ This may also have some impact on inflation in the medium term, in our view. According to RBA’s model, if energy prices rise by 10% per annum over the next five years, the headline inflation would rise by 0.5%. Would believe that there would be some pass through to core CPI and potential implication on rates.


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## chris1983 (14 June 2007)

Yeah MPO look good dude.  Im just annoyed I didnt take my own advice and buy in when I saw the BHP guy take control of the company.  That cost me some serious cash.  I cant complain though..this year and last year has been good.


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## gunditrader (14 June 2007)

Col Lector said:


> you seem indisputedly certain Smurf...do you see any future for pes/& aoe falloon csg?  maybe just vent it??




Col

I think QGC are in the best position locally in southeast qld. For the follwoing reasons: 
- They are conveniently associated with two of the biggest electricity generators. ORG & AGK
- They also have the lowest cost base on CSG producers through the highest flow rates and hence lesat wells per unit of gas production. 

AOE/PES
The upside for AOE lies internationally. I think talk of an LNG exports from Mackay? is very positive for AOE and PES. At 55PJ per annum (i have no idea of Capex and operating costs for an LNG train however I think margins are extremely high) at a price of $3m per PJ this gives revenue in the order of $150m. There is however talk of potentially doubling this to 110PJ year, doubling revenue. This adds up to potentially 150PJ a year of gas sales including domestic sales with prices unlikely to go lower equates to around 450-500m revenue. 

PES with gas fields in Tassie and the Basslink electricity line going in is also a positive. Potential gas sales to the mainland as well. 

CSG on the whole. 
- Low cost low life fields. 
- Carbon benefits of gas???
- Potential price rises???
- Huge reserves. 

I would appreciate any commentary on this. I am just an average investor, far from an expert. 
*Holding QGC, PES*


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## Col Lector (14 June 2007)

Greetings Gunditrader...forgive my addressing you as Smurf...positive PES announcement today (congrats). It underlines that tenement 852 is seen as an important play. But also that the Tipton West project...(AOE & BPT in partnership and PES now holding Comet's royalty stream) is the focus of AOE's southern tenement production. This is targetted at the growing SE Qld/Brisbane mkt & is likely to be targetted for significant expansion given the players involved and expected economic growth in this region.


----------



## chris1983 (18 June 2007)

Arrow just touched 2.97 and is 1 cent from its previous high of 2.98.  There is a lot of resistance there to the 3 dollar mark so it will be interesting to see how it goes for the rest of the day.  Its up on low volume atm.  Would like to see an update on the Indian projects but in regards to SP arrow is performing well.


----------



## chops_a_must (18 June 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Arrow just touched 2.97 and is 1 cent from its previous high of 2.98.  There is a lot of resistance there to the 3 dollar mark so it will be interesting to see how it goes for the rest of the day.  Its up on low volume atm.  Would like to see an update on the Indian projects but in regards to SP arrow is performing well.



Chomp.

Nothing wrong with the volume now. Sellers are few and far between. Looks to be breaking out... again...

By the way, maybe one of the mods is Goblin, lol! As to why your posts have been deleted.

Don't really know why they were... I've never really had a problem with anything you've said... even though we've had some pretty in depth debates. And the forecasts you look to have said, appear no different to what I had already said.

Anyway, AOE looking good again. Breakout time IMO.


----------



## chris1983 (18 June 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Chomp.
> 
> Nothing wrong with the volume now. Sellers are few and far between. Looks to be breaking out... again...
> 
> ...




It wasn't Gobs   It doesn't matter anyway.  Arrow have finally broken the 3 dollar barrier as I said they could earlier..It was only a matter of time IMO.  Lets see if they can hold the mark now.  Some sellers have been coming in and taking profits.  I also think it could be a breakout Chops..have to wait and see.


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## SGB (18 June 2007)

Things are still looking promising as it cruised through 3.00 without much resistance.
One thing that does come to mind through is the ease it broke 3.00 wiothout much volumn.
SGB


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## chris1983 (20 June 2007)

Arrow is starting to run now also..this is a crazy day..Arrow is just continuing to trend up but it has touched another all time high.  Looking real good.  Volume is good too.


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## chris1983 (21 June 2007)

Arrow closed down today. Some large trades went through on the close. There were some huge trades going through today.  On the open 1,420,490 shares exchanged hands which is valued at $4,304,085.  Then in the middle of the days trading another huge trade went through.  This was a single trade for 758,386 shares at $3.03.  Thats worth $2,297,910.  Very interesting.


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## chris1983 (22 June 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Arrow closed down today. Some large trades went through on the close. There were some huge trades going through today.  On the open 1,420,490 shares exchanged hands which is valued at $4,304,085.  Then in the middle of the days trading another huge trade went through.  This was a single trade for 758,386 shares at $3.03.  Thats worth $2,297,910.  Very interesting.




Hmm maybe something is up?  SP is powering on decent volume now..touched another 52 week high at 3.17.


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## SGB (27 June 2007)

Plenty of attention being forwarded to Arrow this morning. Interesting to see what it finishes on this arvo , taking into consideration the early long ranges.

SGB


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## chris1983 (27 June 2007)

I just looked at the trades that went through and there weren't many huge sellers in there if there were any at all.  I own more shares than most of the trades that went through so atleast thats a good sign because I dont think any huge holders were selling down.  Definately has dropped back off its highs but I think it might be good for it.  There hasn't been any updates on international projects and I think a good announcement from this area will definately get her moving again.


----------



## SGB (27 June 2007)

chris1983 said:


> I just looked at the trades that went through and there weren't many huge sellers in there if there were any at all.  I own more shares than most of the trades that went through so atleast thats a good sign because I dont think any huge holders were selling down.  Definately has dropped back off its highs but I think it might be good for it.  There hasn't been any updates on international projects and I think a good announcement from this area will definately get her moving again.




Tend to agree Chris

Just browsed course of sales myself and there was only (1) 30000 and a couple of 20000,s. Apart from that it wasn't that big.
As a techy i would prefer to be over the Pysch 3.00 mark though.
cheers
SGB


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## chris1983 (3 July 2007)

SGB said:


> Tend to agree Chris
> 
> Just browsed course of sales myself and there was only (1) 30000 and a couple of 20000,s. Apart from that it wasn't that big.
> As a techy i would prefer to be over the Pysch 3.00 mark though.
> ...




I doubled up on my holdings.  Was buying yesterday and added to my holding yet again today.  I'm looking for a bounce.  Got in at 2.65 today and 2.76 yesterday.  Hopefully its hit bottom?  I think it was a good short term trade.  Strong action and great support through out the day after hitting a low of 2.60.  Closed on its high for the day.  I'm expecting the action to continue tomorrow if we can get a decent days trading on the DOW overnight.

QGC now have a market cap greater than 2.2 billion and Arrow is currently at 1.57 billion.  Big difference there now and at one stage only a couple of months ago Arrow had overtaken QGC in regards to their market capitalisation.  I believe AOE has world class international projects that QGC don't have.  I'm not bagging QGC I just think AOE has further to run.  These two companies have always had very similar MC's but in recent times QGC has pulled away from Arrow.  If Arrow were to get anywhere near the Market cap of QGC atm they would have a SP of around 4 dollars.

Good luck Arrow holders.


----------



## jman2007 (4 July 2007)

Yep, agree with u Chris, Arrow has plenty of upside considering the International exposure it is generating.  Probably some decent buying for the astute trader to be had over the last few days from the recent glut of profit-taking we have seen.  I got in at $1.56 a few months back so obviously delighted with the run so far, I'm more thinking along the lines of it pausing for breath after the meteoric rise we have seen!

Definitely one to keep in your portfolio for the long-run.


----------



## Sean K (7 July 2007)

For techies out there, am I seeing a head and shoulders happening or is it a little tenuous? O&G would generally have to fall over for this to eventuate surely, and that doesn't look like happening atm? Maybe one of those set ups that don't eventuate. I hope not, as I have a few O&G ers. Will be interesting to watch anyway. Thoughts?


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## Logique (7 July 2007)

Thats an interesting observation Kennas. It's had a powerful run up, so the possibility of a pull back to 2.25 technically can't be discounted. Particularly if it pushes below your marked neckline at about 2.65. 

I've never had much luck trading patterns. Also stocks with this much momentum tend to sweep a lot of technical conventions aside.


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## chops_a_must (7 July 2007)

kennas said:


> For techies out there, am I seeing a head and shoulders happening or is it a little tenuous? O&G would generally have to fall over for this to eventuate surely, and that doesn't look like happening atm? Maybe one of those set ups that don't eventuate. I hope not, as I have a few O&G ers. Will be interesting to watch anyway. Thoughts?



With the way in which this has run, it is WAY overdue for a lengthy consolidation.

BUT!!! QGC has run so hard also, and it is hard to see how AOE could fall alongside this, considering they track each other to a large extent. AOE is on the bottom of the short term trend line, so early next week is a critical time.

It is also hard to see AOE falling a large amount, considering what they have in store in the not too distant future. An international listing of Arrow international, and with that obviously, the international development plans; notably China, India, Vietnam AND Indonesia. We have seen what China has done to MPO, and AOE have 100s of times more acreage. PLUS 3 more (presumably) upgrades to reserves in Queensland. The last one was a 44% increase. It's hard not to look with a positive spin, the momentum and trend tells the story really...

Plus there is the oil price of course... and the increase in wholesale electricity price...


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## Sean K (11 July 2007)

kennas said:


> For techies out there, am I seeing a head and shoulders happening or is it a little tenuous? .....Will be interesting to watch anyway.



 Well, breaking that neckline might have sealed it. What's the go here with POO running away to $80.....This just run too hard? $2.25 a possibility here, but might present a buying opp for you fundies out there convinced of the numbers. All those indicators look very scary.


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## nizar (11 July 2007)

kennas said:


> Well, breaking that neckline might have sealed it. What's the go here with POO running away to $80.....This just run too hard? $2.25 a possibility here, but might present a buying opp for you fundies out there convinced of the numbers. All those indicators look very scary.




Hi Kennas.
Yeh i agree, im selling all that iv got at this mornings open.
I wanted it to bounce off the $2.60ish level like it did last time, didnt happen so Im out.

ESG im gonna bail as well.
Both in profit (ESG rather substantial) but Im giving back way too much profit with my winners 

SEK i will top up.


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## chris1983 (11 July 2007)

nizar said:


> Hi Kennas.
> Yeh i agree, im selling all that iv got at this mornings open.
> I wanted it to bounce off the $2.60ish level like it did last time, didnt happen so Im out.
> 
> ...




Quite a few players in the CBM fields have been getting smashed..one that has held up good is MPO.  Back onto Arrow though..this is fundamentally a very strong company.  Should just hold and lock them away long term which is what I decided to do on my free carried lot quite some time ago.  My first parcel at 60 cents took 5 months to move.  I was even in negative with them at times.  They have progressed their operations substantially since then and they are a different company to what they were back then with a lot of international exposure.  If you want to hold long on an energy play this is one of the stocks to look at.


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## nioka (11 July 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Back onto Arrow though..this is fundamentally a very strong company.  Should just hold and lock them away long term which is what I decided to do on my free carried lot quite some time ago.  My first parcel at 60 cents took 5 months to move.  I was even in negative with them at times.  They have progressed their operations substantially since then and they are a different company to what they were back then with a lot of international exposure.  If you want to hold long on an energy play this is one of the stocks to look at.




Agree. In hindsight it would have been nice to have sold at the top and buy back when the fall stops. If only we could tell when the turn around is with us. Even at today's price it is still one of my most profitable stocks. If I sold now it could turn and be very expensive to reenter so I will hold as I'm sure it will rebound strongly. (unless of course someone knows a lot more than we have been told.


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## chris1983 (11 July 2007)

nioka said:


> Agree. In hindsight it would have been nice to have sold at the top and buy back when the fall stops. If only we could tell when the turn around is with us. Even at today's price it is still one of my most profitable stocks. If I sold now it could turn and be very expensive to reenter so I will hold as I'm sure it will rebound strongly. (unless of course someone knows a lot more than we have been told.




Im very confident on it rebounding in the future.  Arrow will be a very large company.  Farm ins with EIG..partner such as GAIL.  The selling of late may have been a reaction to the sentiment shift towards iron ore..margin loan holders pulling their money out in the downturn and technical traders such as Niz..but IMO they are holding quite well.  I'm holding long and made a decision awhile ago that management for AOE have been brilliant.  I don't know when the retracement will stop but based off fundies its a buying opportunity.


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## chops_a_must (11 July 2007)

nizar said:


> Hi Kennas.
> Yeh i agree, im selling all that iv got at this mornings open.
> I wanted it to bounce off the $2.60ish level like it did last time, didnt happen so Im out.
> 
> ...



Was out of ESG some time back. Free carried a whole bundle. Will look to get back into them in the low 50s. Probably one of my favs for the future.

Out of AOE yesterday when it didn't respect the bottom trend line. I will be looking at getting back in around 2.10, I would think... perhaps 2.26 is another number that it may bounce on. But... it was way overdue for a consolidation. I am free carrying a whole bundle... so I'm not complaining, been in them for ages... and no-one is ever going to be getting the majority of my original holding. 

But in general the CBM sector is getting pumped... for some reason. There is no fundamental reason... aside from recent rain... but I really don't think that was a huge issue.


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## nioka (11 July 2007)

AOE may have hit the bottom. It is up 6c now after beind down 9c when I first checked today. Let's hope it will maintain the rise.


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## chris1983 (11 July 2007)

nioka said:


> AOE may have hit the bottom. It is up 6c now after beind down 9c when I first checked today. Let's hope it will maintain the rise.




Hi Nioka..who knows..I hate selling on the low though.  Stay strong with the fundamentals is my motto..unless I really see an announcement saying to bail.  I havn't seen that yet from Arrow.


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## chris1983 (11 July 2007)

Some very solid support has formed down to 2.40.  Would take a really bad message I would think to push it under that level?  I would think more that a positive message will be released than a negative..we havn't had any updates for awhile.  Anyway I'm happy with the bounce for now.  If it gets over 2.60 again the sell side is very thin up to around 2.70


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## Sean K (11 July 2007)

Insert quotes about picking bottoms etc.....

Can't post a chart now, but it might be hitting a trend line from March which could give it some support, although might be more around the 2.25 mark as well actually. Too early to say bounce IMO. Could be a dead cat. There ´s been quite a few stocks slip sliding away the past 3 months with a few bottom pickers getting well caught out.


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## nioka (11 July 2007)

AOE is now in "pre open". Can't find any announcements. Anyone know what is going on? I hope it's good news.


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## dj_420 (11 July 2007)

from the chart i see a steady fairly well defined channel until large breakout in march. stock has not really shown a defined trend since then. 

support levels on way up were 1.50, 1.75 and 2.00. also showed some support during consolidation period at 1.85 ish.

downside support would be 2.00 and possibly 2.25. as kennas pointed out broke the neckline on previous support.

MACD crossed around the 2.75 area and stochastics has actually shown stock does look oversold on this short term downtrend.


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## chris1983 (11 July 2007)

Picking the bottom with fundamentally sound companies is very tough.  People thought this was overheated when it ran up to 1.70-190.  So how can you judge it.  I guess you can try to pick your entry point off the charts but if you continue to wait for it to fall to 2.25 you could miss the basement buying levels? hmm.  I'm not one to pick bottoms..I can only pick stocks that show great value..and then I have to wait for the fundamentals of the stock to take over and push them higher.


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## dj_420 (11 July 2007)

chris1983 said:


> Picking the bottom with fundamentally sound companies is very tough.  People thought this was overheated when it ran up to 1.70-190.  So how can you judge it.  I guess you can try to pick your entry point off the charts but if you continue to wait for it to fall to 2.25 you could miss the basement buying levels? hmm.  I'm not one to pick bottoms..I can only pick stocks that show great value..and then I have to wait for the fundamentals of the stock to take over and push them higher.




i agree with you there. i usually just jump in when i see value. like AED, it had already run 50% from $5 but i wasnt prepared to miss out, jumped on board them at 7.30 ish

anyways, sometimes you can use charts to time a bit better entry


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## chris1983 (11 July 2007)

A big 100 k seller came in at 2.52 and that helped hold the price down.  Lots were coming underneath him at the close.  Very smart.  Now its been pulled.  He would of been watching this closely.  Next seller on the list is at 2.55.  Overall Im happy with the recovery this morning after the early panic.


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## vicb (11 July 2007)

Bought in again yesterday on the fall for a short term trade at $2.44. 
Lucky enough to sell that lot of shares this morning at the peak of $2.61, return of about 6%.
Still holding a large parcel of shares of AOE which I will be holding for the long haul.
Will be keeping an eye on AOE tomorrow to see if I can find another entry point.
I think it is a case of being oversold.
Although a good call by Kennas with the head and shoulders.
Need some more good news to give the SP a kick along.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (12 July 2007)

vicb said:


> Bought in again yesterday on the fall for a short term trade at $2.44.
> Lucky enough to sell that lot of shares this morning at the peak of $2.61, return of about 6%.
> Still holding a large parcel of shares of AOE which I will be holding for the long haul.
> Will be keeping an eye on AOE tomorrow to see if I can find another entry point.
> ...




The Head shoulders is a hindsight realisation of the expectation of such. It merely shows what one may be looking for, but may not represent the REASON, nor the PROOF, for the fall in price. That will come from what we cannot explain.

I noticed a lot of like minded people got out today. Who was buying? Why were they buying?


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## SGB (18 July 2007)

Trading halt today.

Has any got any news or speculation on what is happening to Arrow.
Can some fundies fill us in

SGB


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## trueblue (19 July 2007)

gunditrader said:


> Col
> 
> I think QGC are in the best position locally in southeast qld. For the follwoing reasons:
> - They are conveniently associated with two of the biggest electricity generators. ORG & AGK
> ...




The LNG Project was announced as Gladstone not Mackay. Big things happening in Gladstone and AOE hold fields within an hour's drive. Whether or not that helps - I do not know???  Since I have held shares from the .60cents days and sold enough to make my present holdings free! I am not too concerned!


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## vicb (31 July 2007)

Record date for the new shares tomorrow 1/07/07 at 7pm.
Good news today, but I think the closing date coming up may be a factor in the price.


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## Sainter (31 July 2007)

1/7/07 is RECORD date, not 'SPP EX' date which was 27/7/07 ( if I can count to 3), so the opportunity to buy to gain access to the SPP has already passed.
Cheers!


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## vicb (31 July 2007)

Thanks for picking that up Sainter mate.
My misunderstanding and mistake.
All the best...


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## chops_a_must (31 July 2007)

Considering the main supporter of this stock is now banned, I guess I better step up to the plate.  It's just unfortunate this thread has been torn to shreds, especially considering it has got to be one of the best performing stocks on the ASX200 over the last 6 months.

Is anyone _not_ intending to take part in the SPP? Looks like a no brainer, with the SP holding up after the record date. The insto placement was about 10x oversubscribed, so it gives you a lot of confidence. I'm free carrying a whole bundle, but would be looking at re-entering on this breakout if the SPP wasn't happening. 

Along with many others in the energy sector, the technicals look very good. Has respected and established a longer term and more realistic trend line. With ORG one of the CBM heavy-weights reporting well in this sector, it only has to put upward pressure on some of these mid cap CBM players.

As with a lot of the energy stocks, this has done very well in this "correction" and post record date. Key signs for a heavily sought after stock. The fibs point to a SP of between $4.50 - $5.50. Would be hoping for that level over the next 6 months.

Cheers,
Chops.


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## chops_a_must (1 August 2007)

More great news today to add to the PetroChina deal yesterday. See todays announcement below. Arrow are taking control of China and its CBM assets..more deals to be signed im sure.  Showing fantastic strength as the market tanks. Once Again!
*
Arrow Signs Agreements With Two Leading Shaanxi Province Coal Miners*
_
The Directors of Arrow Energy N.L. (“Arrow”) are pleased to announce the signing of two agreements with leading coal miners in the extensive Binchang Coalfield of Shaanxi Province in North-Central China. These two agreements are the culmination of many months of geological review work and discussions with the mining groups and government organizations.
The first of these agreements is a Heads of Agreement (“HOA”) with Bin County Coal (“Bin County”). The HOA is for Arrow to provide a degassing service ahead of mining operations in a similar business model to Arrow’s current Moranbah North Mine Degassing Project in Queensland, Australia in conjunction with the mine owner, Anglo Coal. The Bin County mining lease covers an area of approximately 100 km² of Jurassic age coal with apparent good permeability and mid level gas saturations. Arrow will now continue its technical studies and draw up plans for a pilot production program followed by the field’s development if the pilot is successful.

The second of the agreements is a Memorandum of Understanding (“MOU”) with Shaanxi Binchang Mining Company Limited (“SBMCL”) to initially evaluate the potential for Coal Bed Methane (“CBM”) developments on their mining tenements and following a successful evaluation to form a Joint Venture arrangement with SBMCL. These areas, totaling approximately 700 km², are adjacent to the fields covered by the Bin County HOA and host coals with similar features.

Based upon geological data reviewed, Arrow estimates Gas in Place in these two areas could be up to 4 TCF.
In its review of China’s coal basins, Arrow is seeking to leverage its existing skills and knowledge base by specifically targeting coal basins geologically similar to the Surat and Bowen Basins which host Arrow’s Australian gas fields. The Company believes the Bin County and Binchang coal mines exhibit these similarities. With these two agreements Arrow will have access to most of the Binchang Coalfield. The nearby cities of Xi’an and Xianyang have combined populations of over 5 million people and both cities have established city gas businesses.

Speaking from the city of Xi’an, capital of Shaanxi province, Arrow Chief Executive Officer Nick Davies said “The signing of these Agreements today, together with yesterday’s signing of an agreement with PetroChina and Arrow’s earlier agreement with Orion Energy represents a further foundation stone in the execution of our China project acquisition strategy of targeting coal basins of China where characteristics are similar to those in our Australian operations. We are also delighted to be supporting the Chinese authorities as they launch initiatives to increase mine safety through mine degassing projects and to reduce fugitive gas emissions while at the same time rapidly creating a Chinese CBM industry”._


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## chops_a_must (6 August 2007)

Another fantastic announcement today. Not that it matters... I wonder what this thing would be doing on an up day in the market. 


*



Arrow Signs Two Agreements in North East China;
Near Term Revenue Potential

The Directors of Arrow Energy N.L. (“Arrow”) are pleased to announce the signing of two significant agreements in Liaoning Province in north-east China
The first of these agreements is a Heads of Agreement (“HOA”) with Shenyang Gas Company, the city gas company supplying gas to the Greater Shenyang area. Shenyang Gas Company has a substantial gas reticulation system in place serving both residential and industrial customers and is currently purchasing LNG to meet strong energy demand growth in the Greater Shenyang area which has a population of over 24 million.
Shenyang Gas has rights to gas from nearby coal acreage owned by Fushun Mining. The Fushun coals are up to 70 metres thick, mid rank, Tertiary age coals with high gas contents. Following completion of technical studies and final agreements, Arrow will drill and complete wells in this field on behalf of Shenyang Gas and receive revenue based on gas produced to surface at global gas market prices.
It is anticipated that Arrow will drill its first well (likely a surface to inseam well) within the next few months. If successful, gas can be sold immediately into Shenyang’s gas grid and it is anticipated that a further 4 vertical and 14 horizontal wells would then follow over the next 12 months.
The second of the agreements is a HOA with Liaohe Petroleum Development Company (“LPDC”) to evaluate nine blocks in Liaoning Province, covering an area of approximately 9,000 km² of high potential thick coal ranging from high volatile bituminous to semi anthracite. Arrow will undertake an initial technical evaluation of the project area and following a successful evaluation Arrow will finalise a Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with LPDC to develop some or all of these blocks.
LPDC is a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation (“CNPC”) and operates over 10,000 producing oil wells in Liaoning province, and has over 10,000 employees.
These two agreements mark the final stage of Arrow’s initial project acquisition strategy in China. Arrow now has a total of 7 projects in 3 different geographic regions to evaluate technically and commercially and to then proceed with exploration and development drilling. The projects constitute a varied portfolio of opportunities for the country with some coal mine degassing, some large open CBM exploration acreage, some appraisal acreage and a potential near term revenue project in Shenyang.
Speaking from Shenyang, Arrow’s CEO Nick Davies said “The agreements signed this week mark a significant milestone in the development of Arrow’s global growth strategy. China has the potential to provide a major component of Arrow’s future growth and we look forward to continuing to grow the outstanding relationships we have developed across China and progressing project developments.â

Click to expand...


*


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## nioka (6 August 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Another fantastic announcement today. Not that it matters... I wonder what this thing would be doing on an up day in the market. ]



Friday was the ex date for the right to apply for up to $5000 of shares at $2.35. There will be some selling to get funds to invest back to that ammount although you are not guaranteed the full amount to the $5000. It would buy 2127 shares, valued today at $2.88 which will show a $1000 plus profit.( only if you get the full allocation )


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## chops_a_must (6 August 2007)

nioka said:


> Friday was the ex date for the right to apply for up to $5000 of shares at $2.35. There will be some selling to get funds to invest back to that ammount although you are not guaranteed the full amount to the $5000. It would buy 2127 shares, valued today at $2.88 which will show a $1000 plus profit.( only if you get the full allocation )



No, last friday was only the record date, not the ex-date. That date and selling from that has been and gone.


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## nioka (6 August 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> No, last friday was only the record date, not the ex-date. That date and selling from that has been and gone.




What I said was it was an ex date for THE RIGHT to apply. Which is the record date.  If you sell now you are still entitled to apply for the new issue as a holder recorded on the record date. Offers to subscribe should be posted out today I believe.


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## nioka (7 August 2007)

AOE up nicely today which means sell at $2.93 and take up new issue at $2.35 for 2127 shares ( maximum allowed) will allow a profit of almost $1200.


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## SGB (9 August 2007)

nioka said:


> AOE up nicely today which means sell at $2.93 and take up new issue at $2.35 for 2127 shares ( maximum allowed) will allow a profit of almost $1200.




Nice to see this one cross the $3.00 mark again. Technically looking healthy again and looking forward to bigger improvements.


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## sus (9 August 2007)

I am not sure what is the second bullet point mean from the SPP announcement, under "Quote from SPP announcement page "*TERMS & CONDITIONS OF SHARE PURCHASE PLAN*" page 5 *SUBSCRIPTION PRICE*:

Is that mean the SPP price will be set on 10 day from 5 Sep to 18 Sep 2007 VWAP at 4.9% discount?
or the share price is $2.35.?
Please help!!!Thanks

"Quote from SPP announcement page "*TERMS & CONDITIONS OF SHARE PURCHASE PLAN*" page 5 
*SUBSCRIPTION PRICE*
The subscription price of the Plan shares will be the lower of:
· $2.35 per share; and
· the price being an amount equal to 95.1% of the Volume Weighted Average 
   Price for a period of 10 ASX trading days commencing on or about 5
   September 2007 (VWAP) (that is, the price calculated at a 4.9% discount
   to the VWAP).
Accordingly, the Subscription Price will represent a discount of at least 4.9% to the Volume Weighted Average Price for Arrow’s Shares for a period of 10 ASX trading days commencing on or about 5 September 2007.


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## Yeti (9 August 2007)

nioka said:


> AOE up nicely today which means sell at $2.93 and take up new issue at $2.35 for 2127 shares ( maximum allowed) will allow a profit of almost $1200.




Was thinking of doing this myself as I already hold a large proportion of AOE in my portfolio, so not sure if I want another $5000-worth. But by the time you allow for CGT and brokerage fees, I'm not sure it will be worth wile. Also, there is no guarantee that  you will get $5000-worth of shares in the SPP. If it is over-subscribed, which is highly likely, it will be scaled back.


----------



## Yeti (9 August 2007)

sus said:


> I am not sure what is the second bullet point mean from the SPP announcement, under "Quote from SPP announcement page "*TERMS & CONDITIONS OF SHARE PURCHASE PLAN*" page 5 *SUBSCRIPTION PRICE*:
> 
> Is that mean the SPP price will be set on 10 day from 5 Sep to 18 Sep 2007 VWAP at 4.9% discount?
> or the share price is $2.35.?
> Please help!!!Thanks




It means either one, or the other, whichever is the lowest.

The announcement is poorly worded and might make more sense as follows IMO (changes in red):

The subscription price of the Plan shares will be the lower of either:
· $2.35 per share;
or
· an amount equal to 95.1% of the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) for a period of 10 ASX trading days commencing on or about 5 September 2007 (that is, a 4.9% discount to the VWAP).


----------



## nioka (9 August 2007)

sus said:


> I am not sure what is the second bullet point mean from the SPP announcement, under "Quote from SPP announcement page "*TERMS & CONDITIONS OF SHARE PURCHASE PLAN*" page 5 *SUBSCRIPTION PRICE*:
> 
> Is that mean the SPP price will be set on 10 day from 5 Sep to 18 Sep 2007 VWAP at 4.9% discount?
> or the share price is $2.35.?
> Please help!!!Thanks.




The price will be no more than $2.35 and could be less if the SP falls to a point where after applying a discount of 4.9% to the weighted average price for the 10 days prior to the close of the SPP a price less than $2.35 is established. This does not seem likely.


----------



## Sean K (10 August 2007)

kennas said:


> For techies out there, am I seeing a head and shoulders happening or is it a little tenuous? O&G would generally have to fall over for this to eventuate surely, and that doesn't look like happening atm? Maybe one of those set ups that don't eventuate. I hope not, as I have a few O&G ers. Will be interesting to watch anyway. Thoughts?



Well, the H&S practically played out and would have been a good time to be set to top up holdings. Something for long punters to keep in mind. 

This has been a champion stock during the recent downturn. Only this overnight crash probably halting the momentum, if at all...


----------



## SGB (27 September 2007)

Hi Guys

Not much action on thread of late but may have finally found support @ $2.40ish.
Also good to top at $2.50 to confirm double top. $2.60 next challenging resistance which may confirm trend change.

any thoughts?

SGB


----------



## laurie (27 September 2007)

I'm smelling an takeover by NHC but that's JMHO they only need 80% 

cheers laurie


----------



## Dukey (12 October 2007)

Arrow update - no idea about any t/o, but Arrow really hitting its straps now...
New daily gas sales average of 75Tj/day  - up a mere 30% since June Qtr.  Arrow now supplying about 22% of gas Qld gas market. 
And - continuing negotiations with asian partners.

Looking good for all holders methinks after the August downturn...


----------



## SGB (23 October 2007)

At this stage AOE is struggling to find any sort of trend . Currently trading in this very choppy enviroment between 2.40 - 2.60. 
Watching volumns with interest.
SGB


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## Dukey (7 November 2007)

quiet lately here - just creeping up along with QGC since August but announcement today could be positive :
AOE and AGL (50/50) to aquire 'Enertrade' ('gas and pipeline' business)  from Qld government.
Seems to be a sensible - 'synergistic' aquisition and the market likes it so far.... 

nice one - hope you still have AOE chops..???


----------



## chops_a_must (7 November 2007)

Dukey said:


> quiet lately here - just creeping up along with QGC since August but announcement today could be positive :
> AOE and AGL (50/50) to aquire 'Enertrade' ('gas and pipeline' business)  from Qld government.
> Seems to be a sensible - 'synergistic' aquisition and the market likes it so far....
> 
> nice one - hope you still have AOE chops..???




Yep, they are once again my largest holding, with the free carried part being about my 3rd biggest holding alone. Lol!

A lot of these other CSM plays look to be setting up nicely as well...


----------



## jman2007 (16 November 2007)

Looking good for Arrow holders,

After stumbling a little bit in the 2.50 range for a few months, AOE look to be cementing their place in the Qland gas market as one of the major technical partners of choice, QGC also having a good run...these two companies track each other remarkably well.  The intense interest from institutional investors over the last 120M share placement further makes me believe these guys have some pretty solid fundamentals....

Cheers
jman2007


----------



## chops_a_must (11 December 2007)

I'm not exactly sure how they keep doing it, but they do. Getting Nick Davies on the board to me says they are really serious here. Potential takeover target in LNG down the road from AOE if all goes well I'd reckon. AOE look to have gotten a blocking stake as well. All looks good to me though.



> ASX Announcement
> 11 December 2007
> Arrow takes strategic stake in Liquefied Natural Gas
> Ltd - broadens regional commercialisation options
> ...


----------



## DionM (17 January 2008)

AOE getting smashed over the last two days - down 7.6% yesterday, another 6% today, on no real bad news?  Getting hit a lot harder than others in the market


----------



## oldblue (17 January 2008)

DionM said:


> AOE getting smashed over the last two days - down 7.6% yesterday, another 6% today, on no real bad news?  Getting hit a lot harder than others in the market





Can't see any reason for this.

Think its just the state of the market.

Goes on my watchlist for adding to a modest position.


----------



## jman2007 (17 January 2008)

oldblue said:


> Can't see any reason for this.
> 
> Think its just the state of the market.
> 
> Goes on my watchlist for adding to a modest position.




Could have something to do with this lads...

Austock Securities have initiated coverage on AOE, with a *lighten recommendation*.

The broker said the comapny's international assests "had potential" but it pointed to delays in the company's ability to achieve reserve certification at it's Australian sites. "A further 200 development wells are planned for 2008.  In our view, this strongly suggests flow rates per well are taking longer than anticipated to achieve expectations" Austock said.

"Given Arrow's timelines to achieving reserves domestically, we find it difficult to see how, when operating under perhaps more bureacratic legislation, AOE will be able to grow production at a much faster rate than in Australia".

The broker's valuation of the company's hard assets was $1.82, with a price target of $2.16.

*Source:* The West Aust business section, p 72 Jan 12th 2008.

jman


----------



## joelc (17 January 2008)

The only 2 reasons I could think is with the declining share price that people with margin loans have had margin calls and thus some unnecessary selling, oh and around a year ago the sp was hovering around the 1.20 mark (I was one of the traders selling my AOE holdings for a 20% profit around this period ) and possibly some long term holders could be selling off parcels now that they've got the 50% CGT discount..

What are everyone’s thoughts on the current P/E ratio, theage quotes it at 57.7 (to me this is based on last years total recognised income (total sales revenue) of 27million) and commsec says 75.83 (to me this roughly reflects last years 17.83million dollar profit after the write down of losses from CH4 etc), maybe with the current p/e ratio based off last years sales there's a little too much blue sky for some?

I've read through a whole heap of announcements but am unable to find a projected sales revenue for 2008, everything seems to focus only on 2008 projected certified net gas reserves, could someone point me in the direction?


----------



## DionM (18 January 2008)

Compared to other CSM prospects AOE seems to have been hit the hardest, yet AOE is best positioned I would say (and have diversity with pipelines too)?  Look at MEL by comparison, or BPT.


----------



## laurie (18 January 2008)

yep totally agree Dion at times I wonder how the market works 

cheers laurie


----------



## DionM (22 January 2008)

Absolutely flogged so far today.

Down 12.5% to $1.61 ...

I doubt it has anything to do with the name change ... I suspect it's being dumped big time by speculators who are getting out.


----------



## chops_a_must (22 January 2008)

DionM said:


> Absolutely flogged so far today.
> 
> Down 12.5% to $1.61 ...
> 
> I doubt it has anything to do with the name change ... I suspect it's being dumped big time by speculators who are getting out.




Yep... targets now are 1.51 - should get there today. Thought that would be the very bottom.

1.08-1.24... and after that, 60c.


----------



## SGB (22 January 2008)

DionM said:


> Absolutely flogged so far today.
> 
> Down 12.5% to $1.61 ...
> 
> I doubt it has anything to do with the name change ... I suspect it's being dumped big time by speculators who are getting out.




yer DionM, They can't short this one so its fear based. Will recover quickly though, IMO when tide turns again. 
Ive been looking to re-enter in this one. Keeping eyes open for an entry point...but not just yet.


----------



## chops_a_must (22 January 2008)

SGB said:


> yer DionM, They can't short this one so its fear based. Will recover quickly though, IMO when tide turns again.
> Ive been looking to re-enter in this one. Keeping eyes open for an entry point...but not just yet.




Rubbish. I was short this one just last week.

And even if they couldn't, that would mean that the down plunge had nothing to do with shorters. Purely people long getting out. Mortal damage has been done to the long term technicals here.


----------



## SGB (22 January 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Rubbish. I was short this one just last week.
> 
> And even if they couldn't, that would mean that the down plunge had nothing to do with shorters. Purely people long getting out. Mortal damage has been done to the long term technicals here.




Interesting Chops, who is your provider, I'd like to come along at this stage as well. My provider will only long AOE.


----------



## SGB (22 January 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Rubbish.
> 
> And even if they couldn't, that would mean that the down plunge had nothing to do with shorters. Purely people long getting out.




DER...... What do you think* Fear Based *mean't in my previous post!!!!!!!  Investors getting out maybe.


----------



## chops_a_must (22 January 2008)

SGB said:


> DER...... What do you think* Fear Based *mean't in my previous post!!!!!!!  Investors getting out maybe.




Sorry... have been trading the SPI as I've been writing this.

But it was ripe for shorts, the technicals became horrible.

IB is who I use.


----------



## SGB (22 January 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Sorry... have been trading the SPI as I've been writing this.
> 
> But it was ripe for shorts, the technicals became horrible.
> 
> IB is who I use.




Totally agree chops, I noticed a tech breakdown at $3.00ish with a double top retracement. Just been waiting for an entry because *I *couldn't short this.

Cheers
SGB


----------



## Logique (24 January 2008)

Mortal damage to the long term technicals? Have another look today while thinking medium term. I had a look and snapped some up.


----------



## SGB (24 January 2008)

Logique said:


> Mortal damage to the long term technicals? Have another look today while thinking medium term. I had a look and snapped some up.




The fundys in this company are quite strong for the medium term. Just hangin back to see a swing double top to give me more confidence. Been burnt toooo many times trying to pick a bottom on a long position.

Cheers


----------



## Logique (25 January 2008)

I thought I'd have a look at the % performance comparison between AOE and QGC. Similar types of companies, but I lean to AOE, because while a smaller cap company, it has Asian exploration tenements which increase it's diversity and footprint.  

The divergence in relative performances of the share prices is very recent, just in the last two weeks. AOE is currently trying to confirm support level at 1.80 - 1.85.


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## laurie (25 January 2008)

This is where charts don't tell the full story which went down the most during the melt down....AOE if you look at QGC it held up very well,put it this way it saved me from a margin call look at where QGC is now,sorry I disagree with your charts not that they are lying but other factors and variables that cannot be charted 

cheers laurie


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## TheAbyss (25 January 2008)

Concur with Laurie. QGC was a shining star for me in August and now. Difference being QGC have no exposure to overseas volitility, price of Oil etc.

QGC have proved their resources and are locking in clients. IMO this is why the two charts started to seperate in December as QGC were announcing hedge deals with AGL to forward sell product to the electricity grid. At the same time AOE retreated a little on the back of the $70 million debt facility ann (imo).

AOE does look good on the medium to long term outlook and i continue to hold howver for now i see QGC making stronger headway based on the strong support during the current market conditions.


----------



## jman2007 (26 January 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Concur with Laurie. QGC was a shining star for me in August and now. Difference being QGC have no exposure to overseas volitility, price of Oil etc.
> 
> QGC have proved their resources and are locking in clients. IMO this is why the two charts started to seperate in December as QGC were announcing hedge deals with AGL to forward sell product to the electricity grid. At the same time AOE retreated a little on the back of the $70 million debt facility ann (imo).
> 
> AOE does look good on the medium to long term outlook and i continue to hold howver for now i see QGC making stronger headway based on the strong support during the current market conditions.




Imo, QGC may be looking stronger over the short-mid term, however I still believe AOE will ultimtaely have a higher price upside based on its overseas plays.  There will only be a limited ceiling for contract gas prices in QLD, and while QGC may be looking stronger fundamentally, I believe AOE have got their strategy correct and will be an attractive long-term hold.

jman


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## laurie (26 January 2008)

Fair enough it's the reason I hold both BUT remember the failed attempt at SGL! I still believe QGC will be on the prowl also AOE has NHC 19% holding that may be  a launch platform for a takeover of AOE JMHO :

cheers laurie


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## nioka (31 January 2008)

The quarterly report from AOE, out today, makes interesting reading. Also interesting is the fluctuating price today and the volume of trades. The price has retreated from it's peak more than the general market and I've taken advantage of the variations to make some bargain purchases during the last week and today. If the takeover speculation has any foundation then the present SP must have anyone contemplating a takeover of AOE to be seriously considerating a move. Today the price has ranged from $1.595 to $1.79 with a turnover of 12,000.000 +


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## oldblue (31 January 2008)

The problem is that there are so many beaten down stocks in the oil and gas and mining sectors that its hard to pick the "genuine" takeover prospects. There won't be enough predators to go around at these prices!


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## Sean K (4 February 2008)

Not sure of the funnymentals with this one. Been following the thread, but I can't really see a $$ value or potential being put forward. 

Any fundamentals gents? Apart from just securing contracts and taking stakes in things?

Chart wise looks like the tripple top has played out and time for some recovery, sideways movement. Obviously been punished more than others for whatever reason.....Maybe because it went from 60 cents to $3 in a year....longer term investors may have been just cashing in while they could during the panic...

This is the last broker report, but would seem out of date now.

http://www.arrowenergy.com.au/documents/819.pdf


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## Sean K (4 February 2008)

Well, this looks to be the latest broker 'analysis', but the detail is missing.

*AOE - Citi rates the stock as Buy, High Risk* 
BROKER NEWS - 01/02/2008 

Following 32% rise in revenue in the December quarter over the previous one and a 16% increase in production, the broker has retained the Buy rating and the target price of $2.91. 

The broker has noted that the stock has been punished in the recent downturn and expects it to remain volatile, but still remains confident that management will deliver strong business and share price growth in 2008. 

With time and better understanding, the market will view the company's leveraged electricity initiative from the Enertrade acquisition favourably, the broker believes. Sector: Energy.

Target price is $2.91. Current Price is $1.74. Difference: $1.18 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If AOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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## nioka (4 February 2008)

Watch this one fly today. I bought at $1.70 last week and put in a sell order again for $2 thinking that would be a good profit sometime this week. My order went through at opening at $2.05 and the last quote was $2.24. You win some you lose some. Luckily I still hold a few.


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## kingbrown (4 February 2008)

I love these csg stocks 
Doing very nicely on QGC and AOE 

A few more to mention would be ESg and 
PES in particular who is tied up with Arrow 

Pure energy now holds some of the biggest csg acreages in Queensland now approaching 21,000 km² 
PES was hammered the other week and is still down 
But it wont go un-noticed for too much longer 

Go Arrow Up 24% about time !


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## michael_selway (4 February 2008)

kennas said:


> Well, this looks to be the latest broker 'analysis', but the detail is missing.
> 
> *AOE - Citi rates the stock as Buy, High Risk*
> BROKER NEWS - 01/02/2008
> ...




Hm not bad

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 3.5 4.8 11.4 12.2 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS


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## joelc (4 February 2008)

For anyone that's interested there's a share price query response (posted after trading hours) by Arrow to the ASX.


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## laurie (4 February 2008)

Any movement on sp will be mainly on what's happening in the sector rather than AOE itself it has been moving sideways for a while with the likes of QGC moving forward really with it's overseas assets AOE should be well into the $3 price range right now 

cheers laurie


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## TheAbyss (4 February 2008)

Actually item 3 would have a fair bit to do with it. Quite a few holders and new buyers may well have been looking to top up/ buy in when the QGC announcement came out thus sealing the deal phsycologically.

Excerpt from the ASX response follows. 125% increase in revenue will get a rise in the SP quicker than a dose of viagra.


3. Is there any reason to think that there may be a change in the operating profit before abnormal items and income tax so that the figure for the period ending 31 December 2007 would vary from the previous corresponding period by more than 15%? If so, please provide details as to the extent of the likely variation.

3. It is anticipated that there will be a change in the operating profit before abnormal items and income tax so that the figure for the period ending 31 December 2007 will vary from the previous corresponding period by more than 15%. This is due to the increased production and profitability from the Company’s producing projects during the half year together with initial results from the recently acquired Enertrade gas and pipeline businesses. The Company is currently finalising with its auditors the accounting treatment of numerous items including acquisition accounting for the Enertrade gas and pipeline business acquired in December 2007. The Company will provide an earnings guidance range for the half year as soon as these matters are finalised.

Operating revenues for the half year have increased by over *125% *over the corresponding period to 31 December 2006 (from $11.2m for the six months to 31 December 2006 to over $25m for the six months to 31 December 2007).
- 2 -
The increased production, sales revenue and cashflows from operations have been previously advised to the ASX through the Company’s quarterly cashflow reports, the most recent of which was lodged on 31 January 2008.
The Company expects the audit review of its results for the six months ending 31 December 2007 to be completed and the results released on or before 25 February 2008.


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## jollyfrog (14 February 2008)

Take a look at AOE?? comsec says 1,748000 traded in pre open, but there has been three trades each for 1 mil plus, thats around FOUR MILLION SHARES @ $2.14  some BIG $$$$ just changed hands!!


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## Goldmann (14 February 2008)

AOE fairly cheap now compared to QGC... 

Plus Chavez is scaring the crap out of the US right now, so all energies are climbing...


----------



## Black Range (24 February 2008)

Along with PNA & MAK.

Arrow Energy AOE, is yet another stock I have been following over the past period, & finally took a holding on Thursday at $2.28, after seeing some capping occurring at $2.32.

Here's the latest stats from Fridays Close.

No. of Trades: 1604
Volume:............. 3,488,005

Opening Price:... 2.320
High Price:........ 2.500
Low Price:......... 2.270

Fridays Close $2.490

Closing Buyer Depth: $2.490 (1,100,722)
Closing Seller Seller: $2.500 (532,370)

6-month High: 3.200

5-day EMA: 2.296
10-day EMA: 2.260
15-day EMA: 2.229
30-day EMA: 2.238
Avg Volume: 4,219,681

IMO : With AOE currently in an uptrend from its recent Jan Lows, Possible Test to beyond $2.70 over the coming period is looking promising as market still feels AOEs undervalued at current levels.
.
.
.
Cheers from grant64 
.
.
 Have posted 2 charts that I hope AOE Holders find useful.
.
Here's Fridays Closing Intra-Day Chart for 22nd FEB. for the period 11.00a.m to 4.11p.m. showing a strong Buy Up of 112,519 Shares traded on the Close at $2.49.... Indeed very Bullish end to the week.

Green Line Displays Buyers, Orange Sellers Market Depth. Blue Line represents previous days close.


22/02/2008 Bollinger Bands from 01/10/07 to 22/02/08


----------



## Go Nuke (12 March 2008)

Gee poor AOE. Doesnt seem to be doing so well these days.

making lower highs.
Today we almost had a _Morning Star_ formation except that the Third candle is Black (red in this case), therefore I can only assume that this is more bearish that bullish.
Especially on a day like today.


Morning Star:  A three day bullish reversal pattern consisting of three candlesticks - a long-bodied black candle extending the current downtrend, a short middle candle that gapped down on the open, and a long-bodied white candle that gapped up on the open and closed above the midpoint of the body of the first day.  _Taken from Stockcharts.com_For those who would like a definition.


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## Go Nuke (17 March 2008)

Well i hope there is no limit on posting charts, but AOE is proving to be a good chart for me to practice my charting techniques with

So far it looks like I was right with my last post about the formation being bearish....now I have a new one.

I see after todays market the possibility of a _Morning Doji Star_ forming *PROVIDED* that there is a bullish green candle tomorrow.
This was borrowed from Stockcharts.com for those who are interested-

_The black candlestick confirms that the decline remains in force and selling dominates. When the second candlestick gaps down, it provides further evidence of selling pressure. However, the decline ceases or slows significantly after the gap and a small candlestick forms. The small candlestick indicates indecision and a possible reversal of trend. *If the small candlestick is a doji, the chances of a reversal increase.* The third long white candlestick provides bullish confirmation of the reversal.
_

This would also coincide with the low of May 9th 2007, adding re enforcement of a possible bottom.

Of course these are all just my thoughts and I'm only learning so please dont go out and buy any AOE based on my thoughts


----------



## agro (26 March 2008)

i noticed a bunch of coal stocks all up around 5% each today - AOE, MCC, FLX to name a few..

does this suggest market sentiment returning to those stocks that are oversold?


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## agro (31 March 2008)

not too sure why this is going down based on a good anouncement! - possibly opes 

i think long term LNG and coal will do well!


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## trishan9390 (31 March 2008)

agro said:


> not too sure why this is going down based on a good anouncement! - possibly opes
> 
> i think long term LNG and coal will do well!




I believe it OPES as AOE shares are being dumped - see Michael West's article in the Age, "OPES trail heats up" or something like that.

Should see more of this selling over the next few days. I am waiting for signs the selling is over and then will probably buy into it. Good value at these prices!


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## SGB (2 April 2008)

143 buyers for 2,103,913 units  106 sellers for 870,255 units  

Its been a fews weeks now that the demand is overbalancing supply.

Big players starting to emerge again .... good to see.

Just an observation!

SGB


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## agro (2 April 2008)

trishan9390 said:


> I believe it OPES as AOE shares are being dumped - see Michael West's article in the Age, "OPES trail heats up" or something like that.
> 
> Should see more of this selling over the next few days. I am waiting for signs the selling is over and then will probably buy into it. Good value at these prices!




dumped!!

talk of breakout

trading above its 21 day MA

up 11% today! something boiling 

just my opinion though


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## trishan9390 (2 April 2008)

agro said:


> dumped!!
> 
> talk of breakout
> 
> ...




LOL My order is set at 2.17. If it manages to get there tomorrow then we're in business and should see some good gains. Expect resistance at 2.15. Today's price movement was on good volume, but a little overdone methinks.


----------



## agro (2 April 2008)

trishan9390 said:


> LOL My order is set at 2.17. If it manages to get there tomorrow then we're in business and should see some good gains. Expect resistance at 2.15. Today's price movement was on good volume, but a little overdone methinks.




if your lucky you might pick it up under $2 caus i don't think the DOW will go up again tonight somehow

not unless Benanke gives a good speech


----------



## trishan9390 (3 April 2008)

Couldnt wait any longer, picked some up at 2.01. Looking good in the short term. Broke through 2.06 mark which is a good sign. Let's hope short sellers have left the building.


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## agro (3 April 2008)

trishan9390 said:


> Couldnt wait any longer, picked some up at 2.01. Looking good in the short term. Broke through 2.06 mark which is a good sign. Let's hope short sellers have left the building.




thats a good price - it was high as 2.13

2nd quarter profits are expected to increase compared with last year

check out the arrow website and have a look at the media clips in the investor section..


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## grace (10 April 2008)

trishan9390 said:


> Couldnt wait any longer, picked some up at 2.01. Looking good in the short term. Broke through 2.06 mark which is a good sign. Let's hope short sellers have left the building.




Picked some up for $2.02 today.  Is this selling still opes, or is it just the overall market keeping this one down, or a bit of both?


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## SGB (3 May 2008)

SGB said:


> 143 buyers for 2,103,913 units  106 sellers for 870,255 units
> 
> Its been a fews weeks now that the demand is overbalancing supply.
> 
> ...




WOW Up over 20% for the month.

Finally broke its downward trendline on the 16th and confirming the breakout  by advancing through the 200d MA and 23.6% Fib line.I would now expect any selloff to be supported within this area and *ifso* a chance to topup those long positions.

SGB


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## oldblue (3 May 2008)

And, of course, the buying being pushed along by all the excitement over British Gas/ Origin!

Coal Seam Gas back in the headlines.


----------



## laurie (3 May 2008)

Well that's part of the reason but the future price increase of local gas may be also the driving force behind the sector increase,expect a few more T/O or JV to happen soon,especially those that have proven gas reserves because in the past this was the nemeses of the CSM industry *SUPPLY * 

cheers laurie


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## rogue_investor (4 May 2008)

Agree with you there Laurie.  I think we could see plays on some of the smaller caps that have potentially very large reserves in strategic locations.. Have a look at what the share price of SXP, ESG and to a lesser extent BOW  have done in the last 2 weeks.  BOW resources are located around the same area as AOE in QLD.  ESG could be a target for the likes of AGL for Sydney supply.  Speculation of course but there certainly is upward momentum for CSG companies.


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## SGB (9 May 2008)

Be interesting to see if this Bullish Pennant takes place. Will be testing old highs if it does.

SGB


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## Tysonboss1 (9 May 2008)

Hi Guys,

Reading AOE 2007 annual report I saw a breif paragraph mentioning that AOE had conducted a study on GTL(gas to liquid) technology and was just wondering if any body new what stage the were at with this,... or if they are planning a gtl plant some time soon,...

I think the fundamentals for a GTL plant producing synthetic ULP and diesel is qutie stong.... I would love to see a plant go ahead in Australia.


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## Jimminy (22 May 2008)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Hi Guys,
> 
> Reading AOE 2007 annual report I saw a breif paragraph mentioning that AOE had conducted a study on GTL(gas to liquid) technology and was just wondering if any body new what stage the were at with this,... or if they are planning a gtl plant some time soon,...
> 
> I think the fundamentals for a GTL plant producing synthetic ULP and diesel is qutie stong.... I would love to see a plant go ahead in Australia.




There is chatter around that Arrow are in discussion with New Hope (or vice versa) concerning CTL possibilities. New Hope are on the record for investigating a 1500bbl/day trial project at New Acland.

A syngas plant won't produce ULP - only diesel sorry.


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## kingbrown (27 May 2008)

rogue_investor said:


> agree with you there Laurie.  I think we could see plays on some of the smaller caps that have potentially very large reserves in strategic locations.. Have a look at what the share price of SXP, ESG and to a lesser extent BOW  have done in the last 2 weeks.  BOW resources are located around the same area as AOE in QLD.  ESG could be a target for the likes of AGL for Sydney supply.  Speculation of course but there certainly is upward momentum for CSG companies.




Intresting day with CSG!  
Re QGC play into the NSW gas market again with their proposed gas line and large gas fired power plant 
Which appears to run right through ESG csm acreage ?

imo looks like ESG may be ripe for a buy out  ?? 
any opinions with any other csm holders would be welcome ?


ESG closed at .75 today finally getting back to mid last years highs again


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## Tysonboss1 (28 May 2008)

Jimminy said:


> A syngas plant won't produce ULP - only diesel sorry.




Are you sure,.

In the federal government energy paper they mention converting natural gas to ulp, I also thought I had seen a wiki article about it, but I coud be wrong


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## nioka (30 May 2008)

AOE in a trading halt until Tuesday pending an announcement. Must be a big announcement to need until tuesday to get out the details. Should be good news for us.


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## oldblue (30 May 2008)

nioka said:


> AOE in a trading halt until Tuesday pending an announcement. Must be a big announcement to need until tuesday to get out the details. Should be good news for us.




With all that's happening on the CSM scene!
But isn't two days the standard ( minimum? ) for a trading halt?


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## MichaelD (30 May 2008)

oldblue said:


> But isn't two days the standard ( minimum? ) for a trading halt?



Standard trading halt - the company has 3 days (until Tuesday) to make their announcement or else the share goes into suspension. It's pretty unusual to take all 3 days to make the announcement - usually it's the same day or the next.


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## Jimminy (30 May 2008)

is it New Hope Coal?....I have a swag of shares in them and they are running.

NHC have a 19.9% stake. 

They are up 11% today.

Stay tuned.


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## laurie (30 May 2008)

yep have to agree Jimminy  noticed high volume of over 2m shares traded today which is not normal for NHC they have a habit of taking profits and giving shareholders a capital return UNLESS they are increasing their holding I was under the impression their holding is 17.8% but I stand to be corrected

cheers laurie


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## Jimminy (1 June 2008)

:







laurie said:


> they have a habit of taking profits and giving shareholders a capital return UNLESS they are increasing their holding I was under the impression their holding is 17.8% but I stand to be corrected




Yes, you are correct. 17.8% it is. Dilution.

The more I have looked at it over the weekend, it will be a great deal for a stake in the LNG plant imo as Arrow said "it was in the final stages of selling down its CSG interest".

A few media articles have stated that Royal Dutch Shell is thought to be interested in partnering with it on the building of an LNG plant. I'm wondering whether it is something to do with the Asian interests though? But more likely LNG by the statement.

The Petronas/STO deal for a 40 per cent stake in its Gladstone LNG project implied a value of $3.93 a gigajoule for 2P (possible and probable) reserves and $1.32 for 3P (possible, probable and proved) reserves. No wonder Origin said no thanks to BG. 

So it all looks good - and no doubt the price will be equal to if not better than Santos received.

But to have a partner in Royal Dutch Shell is huge imo - Arkdale Pty Ltd (New Hope Corp) just hit paydirt with their 17.8% stake.  There now has to be a greater takeover premium placed on their stake in AOE and this is now being reflected in the NHC valuation - let alone their coal growth prospects.


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## TheAbyss (1 June 2008)

A few facts on AOE from  a few broker reports for those interested


Apart from advancing its international JVs, AOE is evaluating construction of a 400km gas pipeline to Gladstone. An investment decision on a 1.3 mtpy LNG plant with LNG International at Gladstone is scheduled for late 2008. It has a JV with ERM Power to evaluate a 450MW gas-fired power station in the Surat, with associated gas field developments and reserve expansions.

Arrow Energy has a debt facility for A$70m secured against its interest in the
Moranbah to Townsville gas pipeline, which gives AOE A$262m in free net cash, placing it in a sound position to develop its Australian gas fields to support development of its proposed LNG plant at Gladstone.

Private energy consultancy LNG International has appointed Worley Parsons and Arup to undertake Front End Engineering Design for a 1.3 million tonne per year LNG plant at Gladstone, with the capacity to add a second LNG train and take capacity to 2.6 mtpy. Arrow Energy has agreed to supply up to 60 PJ of gas per year initially, with an option to move to 156 PJ per year. Under the terms of this agreement, Arrow is responsible for the gas field development and pipeline for delivery to the LNG plant. The current model anticipates construction of the Central Queensland Gas Pipeline from Moranbah to Gladstone, which is approved and permitted. 

Arrow has recently acquired a 10% equity interest in LNG International, and has the right to acquire a 20% interest in the proposed Gladstone LNG plant, storage and load-out facilities at cost. We assume that the plant cost excludes upstream and pipeline costs. LNG International anticipates vending a 20% interest to a selected LNG buyer. The FID is scheduled for late 2008, with first cargoes in 2012.


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## laurie (2 June 2008)

If you read the announcement on page 2 it states a sell down of its CSM assets that's a strange comment because if it was a JV it would have stated that 

cheers laurie


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## TheAbyss (2 June 2008)

Well it is a JV with Shell. No sell down here. If they did that their share price would have been smashed. Smart move and one of many that will eventuate in this sector.

Just own and hold for a while yet anything with CSG assets imo.

Very interesting article on saturday by one writer who suggested that everyone should sell and run as the whole CSG sector is a bubble about to burst. At the time i wondered whether he hadn't had an opportunity to buy in yet.

Deserves to be smacked on the wrist. Link below. Be very surprised if he is correct and based on this mornings market moves he is wrong for now at least. A lot of other articles are a direct opposite to his position within his own organisation let alone the rest of the marketplace

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23785704-5005200,00.html


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## Tysonboss1 (2 June 2008)

Great news, with the shell deal.

It's not overly different t the QGC/BG deal, 

this deal will pretty much take over proof Arrow I expect to see some fantastic strengh from Arrow now, puts in back in the game with QGC now.

As for CSG beng a bubble,... we have not even begunto see the strength of natural gas yet, as oil peaks natural gas consumption will go through the roof, why else are the oil majors chasing gas reserves.


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## oldblue (2 June 2008)

Yes, a partner like Shell should be good for AOE, provided they are able to hold their own with that particular giant!
Not too sure though that it's a good thing from shareholders' point of view to have the company " takeover proofed"?


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## james99 (2 June 2008)

Being take over proofed does not stop fund managers taking stakes; and this will now IMO look sufficiently attactive to fund managers to place it within their investing guidelines. If so, then it is (almost but not quite) a first for an essentially UGC based investment decision and should result in excellent share price inflation for AOE and the sector.

It touched $4.110 today, with much of the market still to read the news (it will, I suspect warrant a mention in the major Au papers, and of course some international oil / gas sites - it is alread on upstream online - see link.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080602/pdf/319ffbls154tx9.pdf

I am not convinced we are in a bubble; the comparisons to the sector 2 years ago were when oil was at US$40bbl and many resources were non-JORC compliant. Now even modest analysts have oil at a 2 year futures price of US$100 BBl or greater and of course AOE has outstanding acreage; and a process that is now cost effective and a credible international partner. Outstanding really for a 2.5 bil company (small cheese internationally; but might now attact the UK market).  

I disclose holdings.


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## laurie (2 June 2008)

The reaction to this announcement on AOE share price to me looks disappointing  IMHO $4.10+ should have been able to be sustained as a floor price for further increases just look at QGC & NHC both have fallen on the news so go figure this market 

cheers laurie


----------



## james99 (2 June 2008)

The difficulty for QGC and NHC is that there is such a small pool of internationals that are willing to invest; this really means that those two companies now have reduced chances of achieving such a partnership, at least in the short term.

Re the price, I agree. essentially te value is 30% of many licences for 700 mil ,so that places a value on AOE of 2.33 bil (its current market cap as it happens) BUT the sale does not include, eg the Indian licences nor place a value on the strategic partnership.

This is a very blunt analysis, and IMO clearly a greater price is warranted. The reality is if AOE rerates then the next step (over time) is really to a Origin size. 

I note the general market is down, pulled that way by banks, so would expect a signficant increase when that negative influence goes (as well as short term and IMO short sighted profit takers, who could be expected for a day or two), especially given the international coverage the AOE Shell deal has - already in paper in US / France / UK / NZ / AU (of course!). International investors could jump on board in a matter of days...


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## james99 (3 June 2008)

*Re: AOE - Arrow Energy :$5.45 Target*

See Citi target (aiming for 40% increase from todays closing price  )

Arrow Energy (AOE) has a maintained Buy High Risk Recommendation and a $5.45 share price target from Australian stockmarket analysts from Citi.

"Arrow Energy Limited (AOE): Arrow LNG - Go Well Go Shell!

Shell Partners Arrow with its Gladstone LNG Project ”” Arrow achieves a $776M payment from Shell for 30% equity in all of its SE Qld csm assets and a 10% equity stake in their International operations. This has materially lifted our target price from $3.41 to $5.45/share. We maintain our Buy High Risk Recommendation."

I disclose holdings.


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## Vampire (4 June 2008)

I feel like such an idiot selling it at 2.70 seeing where it is now. I hope it drops a little so I can reenter again but that looks unlikely.


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## Tysonboss1 (4 June 2008)

Vampire said:


> I feel like such an idiot selling it at 2.70 seeing where it is now. I hope it drops a little so I can reenter again but that looks unlikely.




You can't be right all the time,....lol.

The good thing about the sharemarket is there will always be opportunities come up, So don't dwell on the one that got away.

I think that under $4 is a bargin for AOE now that it has shell on board, Compared to the likes of QGC arrows P/E ratio is very small. 

By the between now and when they finally get the LNG plant going there will be alot of ups and downs so I will keep adding to my CSGers when ever there is a good opportunity, I am such an energy bull and have such good faith that LNG is going to be the next big fuel source to replace dwindiling oil that I am keeping about 30% of my portfoilio in AOE, QGC and other energy stocks


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## kingbrown (4 June 2008)

Hi guys i think we cant go wrong with these Gas stocks for some time yet 
Also The Jap Govt wants in and they consume around 39% of world export Lng  


Re: 
According to Newport-based Roger Corrie of ABN Amro Morgans, it makes sense for the groups to consolidate

See my link on ESG forum 
re mergers on csg players 

Cheers 

p.s I own AOE, QGC, ESG


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## grace (12 July 2008)

For those who have been watching the notice come through that Director Stephen Bizzell has a "margin loan" with Chimaera Capital (Primebroker), you might be pleased to hear they have all been settled.

A snippet in today's CM advises that  Bizzells 2.39 million shares have been sold for prices as low as $2.86.

We should expect a notice to the ASX soon.


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## agro (21 September 2008)

hi

do not follow the energy sector as much but had been given this as a tip from a good friend of mine,

they mentioned that on thursday one director bought 1.5m shares on market and that post-auction friday there was some fairly massive buyers..

at one stage the iap was up to 3.60?

ne1 clarify this for me


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## jman2007 (21 September 2008)

agro said:


> hi
> 
> do not follow the energy sector as much but had been given this as a tip from a good friend of mine,
> 
> ...




Not sure what you mean by iap,

But up 12% Friday to $3.00, change of Directors interest notice also released, as another 500K ordinary shares were acquired. Fairly heavy trading volumes 18th-19th. Haven't looked at the current orders however.

jman


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## Glen48 (28 October 2008)

Any one beside me think this one may be on the way up?
My crystal ball  won't show Green any more has had to much Red burnt into it.


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## chops_a_must (28 October 2008)

Glen48 said:


> Any one beside me think this one may be on the way up?
> My crystal ball  won't show Green any more has had to much Red burnt into it.



This share represents about 25% of my capital and is all free carried.

It's potential now as the largest pure play CSMer on the exchange is now massive.

Shell has 30% of it. Wont have any problems with funding new projects.

I will be disappointed if it doesn't make we quite well off one day.

Really has some astounding potential, especially as QGC gets priced the way it has been with a crummy deal...


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## Sean K (24 November 2008)

Along with a few others has hit some long term support.

Maybe a long term opp around here. 


*Arrow Energy strikes development deal with China *
Susan Murdoch | November 24, 2008 
Article from:  Dow Jones Newswires 

ARROW Energy has signed an agreement with China's Bin Chang Mining to develop a coal bed methane project in Shaanxi Province.

Under the terms of the deal, if commercial volumes of gas are produced from the pilot program, the parties will enter into a formal joint venture to develop the area, the Australian coal seam gas producer said. 

Arrow recently announced a joint venture with the Geological Survey of Xinjiang Autonomous Region, where first drilling is targeted for the second quarter of 2009. 

"All of these activities underline Arrow's extremely positive view of the future of the CBM industry in China where gas demand continues to be strong, long term gas prices attractive and where Arrow's particular skill set and experience is in demand by local industry participants," chief executive Nick Davies said.


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## gorillapolice (27 November 2008)

Glen48 said:


> Any one beside me think this one may be on the way up?
> My crystal ball  won't show Green any more has had to much Red burnt into it.




Definitely. Really liking these guys at the moment.

I have high hopes for their plans in China (as do they I would think). Definitely a long term buy for me.


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## phong_01 (24 December 2008)

any idea if Shell will take over AOE?  History may repeat as happened with QGC after they bought Sunshine Gas.


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## anatol (24 December 2008)

I think you are right. I am expecting Shel will buy AOE. Shell has no other option. I am not sure if holding 30% of AOE would be enough and secure for Shell !  I beleive it will be the next big takeover in the market soon. Any other ideas ? Let's talk about AOE. (I am a holder of AOE shares )


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## TheAbyss (24 December 2008)

Very logical process for Shell to take over AOE imo. Very similar process to what happened to QGC. Aoe take up the small fish then position themselves for a larger fish. The off shore interests of Aoe may not be required so any news of divestment by Ae will be a very strong pointer for me.

Watch for a BG bid on Santos. They missed on Origin so STO makes sense and they are proven to have the cash. Watching with interest. Dark horse may well be a BG bid for AGL but unlikely given the additional diversity AGL have but you never know.

If BNB ever sort out what they are doing ESG will get snapped up also imo.

All my opinion only and have a great Xmas all.


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## oldblue (24 December 2008)

I'm holding AOE but not so sure that Shell will look to take them out. Their 30% interest makes it pretty secure from Shell's point of view and they can therefore afford to take their time and see how the whole CSG business develops.
Meanwhile, if STO or AGL look to be cheap enough it wouldn't surprise to see Shell look to get a foothold there as well.
All very speculative but AOE appear to be making the right moves, IMO.


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## Trader Paul (25 December 2008)

Posted 24122008:

Hi folks,

AOE ... here's an overview of our astroanalysis, 
        over the next couple of months:

        05-06012009 ... positive light on AOE ... 

        16-19012009 ... 1 x positive & 1 x negative cycle,
                        posibly flat trading here.

           04022009 ... difficult cycle

      2602-18032009 ... a difficult period for AOE,
      especially regarding finances, so watch for 
      AOE news/moves, around:

      26-27022009 ... difficult news expected

      05-06032009 ... negative light on AOE, with
      a special focus on finances.

      12-16032009 ... a strong & difficult cycle           

      17-18032008 ... more negative news expected here.

Looking ahead, April-June 2009 should see a lack of 
interest and the price fall, significantly.

August-September 2009 should see a recovery in AOE,
but don't get too excited, as March 2010 should bring
some BIGtime negativity into play for AOE.

More later.

Merry Christmas and Happy 2009.

happy days

  paul


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## phong_01 (25 December 2008)

Some expecting upgrades from Pure Energy for AOE in 2009 if the deal goes ahead:

ATP852P - expecting further upgrades in 2009;
ATP806P - targeting reserve certification in 2009.

The takover is funded via existing cash reserves and proceeds from Arrow's previously announced sale of 30% interests to Shell.

Acquisition of Pure reserves allows optimisation of field development plans for first LNG project - continuing Arrow's position of being fully funded through early 2011.


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## grace (5 February 2009)

mc = $1.5 bill  (710million shares fully diluted)
cash = $300 mill

value excluding cash $1.2bill

Profit upgrade today $345 mill for 1/2 yr (including sale of 30% of csg to Shell)

Arrow 2P = 1177
Arrow 3P = 3676

However, after buying pure for $670mill (from memory), will have 3P of 6148 (10636 with Shell's share).

Nice bit of gas Arrow are accumulating.  Compared to the BG offer for QGC, they are way undervalued.  $2 bill with 6148 PJ (with Pure) being Arrow's 70% of the gas.  QGC $5.5bill with 7000PJ (was that all QGC's?).

Am I doing the figures right?  Some of this is from memory.

When they convert 3P to 2P of 6000 odd, up there with QGC PJ when taken over by BG for $5.5bill (I think QGC had 7000PJ).

I wonder will we see a repeat of the BG/QGC thing here.  Arrow is looking pretty cheap in my books IF it ends up with Pure.  I see the Bidders Statement out tonight.  They got PES for a bargain (I hold both).  Check my figures please.  I guess Arrow have a few o/s interests too.


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## jancha (6 February 2009)

Hi, 
   I hold a number of Arrow shares and was wondering why they're down 4% today on yesterdays good news and yet the market was up 1%. Is this a risky company or are the day traders controling the market to some extent hence the drop in price?


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## Sean K (9 February 2009)

Interest chart pattern occurring here.

Have to assume a break up one way or the other results in a larger move in that direction.

Maybe.


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## anatol (9 February 2009)

Guys !
What's happening? 

Shell owns 30% of of Arrow, Arrow owns 30% of PES, but BG wants to buy PES ?

What is BG trying to do?

I didn't quite understand.

Bg also says they owns 10% of PES! And they won't sell it to Arrow, as they down't want to own Arrow shares. 

Do they want to own whole Arrow shares or what?

I am confused !

Any ideas!


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## basilio (9 February 2009)

I think BG recognises a great bargain when they see one. PES is absurdly undervalued on proven reserves let along further exploration. 

Regardless of the current low cost of energy *there will be very big increases in energy costs *as peak oil bites within the next 1-2 years. Now is the time to secure energy resources.

I wouldn't be surprised if Arrow has a rethink as well. $6.40 is not a full price by any stretch of the figures.


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## oldblue (9 February 2009)

I can't see AOE being able to outbid BG for Pure unless Shell enters the game. After all, Shell own 30% of AOE's coal seam methane assets and would have had an interest in AOE enhancing these through the takeover of Pure.
This can only improve the value of all CSM players including AOE, BOW, VPE - even BPT in a small way - but I suspect there is a fair way to go before the situation clarifies.


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## anatol (9 February 2009)

Yeah, the gas price will be definitly going upwards. Also LNG/CSG is the only way to reduce the carbon emissions in a short time (next 10 years) for most countries, especially for Australia. A gas power plant emits 70% less carbon than a brown coal power station (the ones like in VIC) and 50% less than a black coal powe station. So most coal power plants will be converted to gas power plants. Then more gas will be needed. 

Also, Obama said the coal power plants will be bunkrupted, so LNG/CSG will be a major player in the energy industry. 

So those guys are fighting for the gas now. That's normal. 

I am not sure why Arrow needs to increase the price! If its share price goes over $3, it might fix the problem as Arrow has offered 1.21 Arrow shares plus $2.70 cash. Then $3 x 1.21 = $ 3.63 + $2.70 = $ 6.33

Isn't this right? Will it work this way?

But I don't know how Arrow shares will go over $3 by the way.


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## bassmanpete (9 February 2009)

I think cash + AOE shares is the more attractive option whatever the price of AOE is at the time the offer is taken up. I say that from the point of view of one who would hold onto AOE with the expectation of it going a lot higher in the long term. Obviously those who would immediately sell the AOE shares would have a different opinion.

I've held AOE since 2004 when they were 40 cents so I'm laughing anyway


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## Dangerous (9 February 2009)

anatol said:


> Guys !
> What's happening?
> 
> Shell owns 30% of of Arrow, Arrow owns 30% of PES, but BG wants to buy PES ?
> ...





... and QGC have hired an ex-Shell employee to be the next MD

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24976865-3122,00.html


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## Dukey (9 February 2009)

bassmanpete said:


> I think cash + AOE shares is the more attractive option whatever the price of AOE is at the time the offer is taken up. I say that from the point of view of one who would hold onto AOE with the expectation of it going a lot higher in the long term. Obviously those who would immediately sell the AOE shares would have a different opinion.
> 
> I've held AOE since 2004 when they were 40 cents so I'm laughing anyway




I expect most folk would simply take the $$ from the highest bidder - you can buy more AOE the next day if you like...or earlier!!
I really think AOE might have suspected this would happen and won't want to lose PES - so another offer is a distinct possibility... in my view.
.


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## grace (9 February 2009)

I will also post this here, on Business Spectator tonight.

"Shells last chance" and some of the story below

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Shells-last-chance-$pd20090209-P48KQ?OpenDocument&src=sph



> It is conceivable that Shell could get more heavily involved. Pure’s acreage is appealing to Arrow and Shell because it would beef up their reserves base in the event that Shell decides to proceed with the building of an export LNG plant fed by coal-seam gas at Gladstone. Last year Shell paid $776 million to acquire a 30 per cent interest in Arrow’s coal seam gas acreage.
> 
> Shell hasn’t been as aggressive in acquiring a Queensland coal-seam gas exposure as BG, Petronas and ConocoPhillips but it wouldn’t want to be boxed into a position as a minor player either.
> 
> ...


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## anatol (10 February 2009)

IMO, this attack of BG is not only targeting PES, it is also targeting Arrow. There is nothing Arrow could do with BG bid for PES here. (I mean it is not acting all alone now)  Arrow makes all of its plans according to Shell's plan which is not clear or I don't know! Arrow will ask to Shell what to do; Increase or do nothing? BG is testing Shell's startegic plan and detemination for CSG/LNG as Shell looked very quite so far. BG wants to bring it up. 

As  I said previously in December, Shell does not have any other choice if it wants to stay in this game here. 

If Shell won't tell Arrow to buy PES in any price, BG will buy PES, and then will put a bid on Arrow as Arrow would be a small player in CSG/LNG game who nobody wants. But it would be a good stake for BG. Then BG could reach to a reserve size close to Origin reserves (maybe, I am not sure)


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## oldblue (10 February 2009)

So the odds on Shell making a compelling bid for both AOE and PES is pretty strong, IMO.
That is, if they are really serious about Australian CSM resources.


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## Logique (10 February 2009)

PES holders are in a good position, but it's tricky now for AOE holders. 

- if AOE get into an elevated bidding war for PES, I see that as a short term negative for the AOE share price, i.e. they may pay too much.

- however if AOE-Shell allow BG to takeover PES, I see that also as a negative, because AOE could become a marginalised CSM player.

- if you continue to hold AOE you have to hope that Shell decide to wade in seriously and make a bid for PES and/or AOE.  There is no guarantee that this will happen, so there will be nervousness about potential downside here.


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## Dangerous (10 February 2009)

BPT interest in tipton west at $2/GJ on 2P is worth more than their market cap ($2/GJ x 467PJ=$934M) ... I expect to see some buying for BPT soon

Will the old glacier - Shell - melt under the pressure from BG?  Interesting times for CSG again!


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## anatol (10 February 2009)

Yes, it creates some nervousness!

IMO, BG is actually targeting AOE. PES is much better with AOE (see the location of their tenements, very close). Not very good without AOE. 

BG may put a hostile bid to AOE soon, and leave PES. Who would be going to buy PES then, other than AOE who would be under hostile bid of BG. 

What BG has done yesterday is, pushed the price of PES up. BG does not look like a serious buyer at this stage, but looks like they have a different strategy. They are trying to create some obstacles for AOE and testing Shell.

If you look at PES price now, it is still going up. That is not very healthy. Who is going to  buy it now? At what price? very strange. This situatuon is going the brake in some point.


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## Logique (11 February 2009)

The most obvious question is why would PES holders sell to anybody.  The value of the stock keeps rising. 

BG offered $6.40 cash, and their offer is conditional on a minimum 50.1% of PES being acquired.

AOE offered $2.70 cash plus 1.21 AOE shares, which equates to $5.96 per PES share on the current sp of AOE ($2.70).  AOE say their offer is conditional on 90% acquisition. With BG owning ~10% of PES, they could potentially block AOE's full acquisition of PES.

So what are PES holders to do - if they are going to sell at all.  The AOE offer might be the best choice long term, with some cash now, but also the AOE scrip component offering ongoing participation and gains in the CSG industry.  

But to be fair to BG, their cash offer will be good for those PES holders who may need the money right now.

This could turn into a game of brinkmanship between BG and AOE-Shell, and  for that matter PES holders - why should they sell to either suitor.  A period of uncertainty lies ahead.


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## Dangerous (11 February 2009)

my ownership calcs are

AOE  19.98%
Shell 14.88%
BG    10.00% 
Tot   *44.86%*

*Outstanding 55.14%*

However, 5.31% of the stock has been bought on the market in the last two days (yes, some could be turned over multiple times), but if another 12M go on the market, BG will not be able to get the additional 40% they require.

Am i correct in saying this will get very, very interesting and are the assumptions above incorrect?

Thanks folks


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## Logique (11 February 2009)

I think AOE would/should want to get at least 50.1% minus (19.98% + 14.88%) = a further 15.24% of the notionally uncommitted PES shares, i.e. a controlling stake in PES.

Easier as you say, for AOE to achieve this than for BG to get 50.1 minus 10 = a further 40.1%, but they are making sure AOE have to pay a premium.

Could all end in a stalemate.


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## Logique (12 February 2009)

> Quoting *Basilio* over on the PES thread last night:
> Game on. Arrow has upped the offer to $3.00 plus 1.57 AOE shares for each PES shares. Value is stated as $7.16.
> 
> More significantly they have abandoned the 90% minimum (wonder why ) and want to roll this up very quickly. They want to start taking shares from tomorrow (Feb 12th)
> ...



  AOE had to raise their offer if they were serious (as BG well knows).  It's a good signal for the long term intentions of AOE and Shell.



> *From the link under*: BG has left its run late. Arrow unveiled its cash and scrip bid for Pure in late December and dispatched its bidder’s statement last week. It has claimed the support of a fraction under 50 per cent of Pure’s register, *including* a 19.9 per cent shareholding of its own, *a 14.9 per cent stake held by Shell* and 11 per cent by Pure’s directors.



http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Shells-last-chance-$pd20090209-P48KQ?OpenDocument&src=sph  This seems odd, why would Shell spend millions buying into a deal with Arrow, only to sell it's PES holding to a rival bidder in BG? Doesn't seem likely, and anyway the new AOE bid for PES is now the superior one.


----------



## jancha (12 February 2009)

Hi,
   Excuse my lack of knowledge in trading. Bg put out this morning  notification of a proposed counter offer for Pure Energy for the 18th next week? Adjust. Does that mean no trading AOE & PES till then?


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## oldblue (12 February 2009)

Both are trading.
PES up 9%, AOE down 6%.

BG's announcement shouldn't cause either to be suspended.


----------



## jancha (12 February 2009)

I guess adjust means to adjust. With that news brought out by Bg why would AOE fall in sp?  What would become of Arrow if they aren't successful in their bid?


----------



## TheAbyss (12 February 2009)

jancha said:


> I guess adjust means to adjust. With that news brought out by Bg why would AOE fall in sp?  What would become of Arrow if they aren't successful in their bid?




The drop in Sp is more than likely some doubt around whether AOE are paying too much for PES now and will this even get the deal over the line or will AOE have to offer even more when BG counter next week.

BG have advised they want some time to consider their options. Remember they have pulled out of a bidding war before so they may circle their wagons again here.

Not a lot of other options if they want to secure supply of resources other than PES unless they take another tilt at a bigger fish than PES such as STO, ORG etc. Who knows they may even talk to Shell about AOE.

Other than these guys the rest are small fish such as Bow and VPE etc which BG already have a piece of via their QGC acquisition.


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## oldblue (12 February 2009)

Getting PES would be great for AOE but missing out wouldn't be fatal. At the very least there is a very nice consolation prize in that they hold 19.98% of PES and can either do a deal with BG or hang in there. ( And maybe turn their attention to someone else such as BOW or VPE.)

It looks like the market is marking down AOE either on concern that they miss out on PES or that they end up bidding up the price and paying too much.

Exciting times, especially for PES shareholders!

Disc: Holding AOE and BOW.


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## jancha (12 February 2009)

Thanks Abyss
                  If Arrow aren't successful in their bid maybe Shell will step in to the bidding on their own.


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## jancha (12 February 2009)

Change in substantial holding with Arrow. Do i detect a bit of nervousness out there? I sure am. Best senario is if bg walks away after doing their sums come Wednesday.


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## anatol (13 February 2009)

I still beleive BG will put a hostile bid for buying AOE if they are not stupid.

Let's have a look at this calculation;

PES price goes up to $1b if BG bids again. 

AOE has 20% of total gross certified gas reserves of QLD. PES has only 5%.

AOE's market value is $1.8b now. It is undervalued, isn't it. 

If BG doubles the market price of AOE and put a bid for $3.6b, that would justifiy PES's $1b price. Also, PES would be coming in that $3.6b, wouldn't it?

Or BG could pay $5b together with PES.

Guys, BG has big dollars. They wanted to buy Origin for $13.8b, couldnt get it. They paid $5.3b for QGC, and they still have $8.5b to spend on this business. Why wouldn't pay $5b to AOE together with PES and finish this coas. What would Shell do in that case? it is a problem, but not unsolvable. They both have other businesses around the world, BG might make a favour to Shell in another part of the world later on. 

I am a AOE holder and hoping this to be true, in deed. 
However PES holders should be carefull if BG turns its bid to AOE. There are not any other crazy giant like BG to pay this much to PES. AOE's bid might come back to $5.8 under the new conditions.


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## Dangerous (13 February 2009)

I think BG will put in a bid for AOE (or i'm hoping).  I did wonder the following:

BG have ensured AOE pay more for PES.  Was their 6.40 bid that serious - did they really want PES?  I am not convinced.  Now if BG put in a bid for AOE, Shell could have to top it meaning Shell pay more for AOE.

On the depth of BG pockets.  I don't think you can compare the 13B BG were to spend on Origin to any other CSG stock.  Origin's retail arm is well established.  Apart from AOE and QGC, the rest are miles from producing.  Look at the price paid for Sunshine and all they have are a few wells and a drilling program - now compression, no trunklines, no processing, nothing!...

That said, QGC was a bargain.  Had QGC had a few more 2P reserves in some different tenements BG would have had to have paid lots more!


----------



## anatol (13 February 2009)

BG actually did not need a well established retail arm like Origin's. It would be a burden for BG. BG ships out the gas from the LNG plant, they also have 10 year contracts to supply gas to Singapore and Hong Kong now. 

AOE is pure CSG company, very well establisehd and only sells the gas  to wholesale market. AOE suit best to BG's interest as it is, has acrages both in Surat and Bowen basins. (QGC has mainly in Surat Basin - South East QLD) Bowen basin may be more important than Surat basin for them, I'm not sure now (needs more research). So there is no choice other than buying AOE for BG. 

I beleive Shell is not very serious in this game. They have huge plants in all around the world. Their announcement yesterday regarding to the LNG plany research in Curtis Island does not mean anything to me. Shell tries to acquire AOE's reserves in a very cheap price, if the price goes up, they may turn back. That all depends on BG's approach to AOE. Friendly or hostile / That's the question.

The main question is; AOE is very cheap at this price or not? BG and Shell will be looking at this. PEs is jsut a part of that which is already expensive IMO.


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## oldblue (13 February 2009)

I can't believe that Shell is not deadly serious about it's stake in AOE's CSM interests. At the same time as it is showing interest in Curtis Island land and settling with the final payments to AOE they have announced that they are weighing options for the possible sale of their downstream assets in New Zealand, including 230 petrol stations, their 17% interest in New Zealand Refining, 36% interest in road building company Fulton Hogan as well as aviation, bitumen, chemicals, commercial fuel and marine businesses.

Looks to me like they are putting together a war chest to fund a major investment in upstream business such as CSM to LNG.
Can only be positive for AOE.


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## Logique (13 February 2009)

I think some posters are getting carried away.

I think its likely that that this will all end in a stalemate, with BG/former QGC and AOE/Shell both having large chunks of PES. Thus the relativities between the two consortiums will remain little changed. In this circumstance it won't really matter who has the majority holding in PES.

So what would be the urgency for BG to take over AOE ?

The logical outcome further down the track, is a friendly merger between the two consortiums. I think the real agenda here is - positioning to negotiate the best terms in a future merger. It will cost a lot of money to build a plant at Curtis Island, cheaper to build one - than two competing plants.


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## anatol (14 February 2009)

You might be rigth Logique, but only for the past, not for the present and future, IMO. 

A JV between two groups or consortiums (Shell/AOE and BG Group) would be the best solutions. It is much cheaper to built one LNG plant instead of two. ($7b cost to built one)

If BG could manage to buy AOE, how many LNG plants would be built then do you think ? The answer is only one. Shell would be out of this game. BHP (sold CH4 to AOE) and Woddside is already out of this game ! It is not end of the world for them, nor would be for Shell. Also, Shell might not invest too much in this risky CSG business as it is not proven yet that CSG would be well accepted (quality and price) by the markets in the future. 

And yes, BG might be trying to position itself to negotiate the best terms in a future merger with Shell/AOE before PES bidding. But it is too late now. PES's price and its shareholders expectation is over the top now. 

AOE's counter attack after BG's attack on PES, seems to me that *they have already made some discussion about a kind of JV before*. But they might not agree on terms. Maybe BG could not get a satisfactory outcome. Maybe Shell ignored BG. (Shell is 4-5 times bigger than BG. BG's last years profit is $7b whie Shells' $35b). 

I told previously that BG has a different stategy in this game which we don't know now yet. PES is not a strategical target for BG, bidding on PES is just a tactical attack. But what is the strategic target and when will BG make their strategical attack on this fight? That is the question. 

So I am talking about "Hostile bid" on AOE by BG, as BG's next and strategical attack.

The urgency for BG to buy AOE might be, if BG lets AOE to buys PES, then there is no way to buy AOE later on.  And BG needs more reserves, that's for sure.


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## oldblue (14 February 2009)

Hi anatol.

If I am reading you correctly you're saying that BG won't counter-bid for PES but will instead look to takeover AOE?
I can't see Shell standing by and letting that happen.


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## beerwm (14 February 2009)

anatol said:


> You might be rigth Logique, but only for the past, not for the present and future, IMO.
> 
> A JV between two groups or consortiums (Shell/AOE and BG Group) would be the best solutions. It is much cheaper to built one LNG plant instead of two. ($7b cost to built one)
> 
> ...




Dont agree with you at all on this.

Considering the recent aquisitions in the sector, PES has great location and price/reserves is much lower even at current price $7.50.

BG wants gas, and PES being sooo cheap, it had to make a play, even with 35% tied up between AOE/SHELL.

I guess time will tell, my guess BG makes a bid at $8-8.50


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## Dukey (14 February 2009)

IMO - PES is most definitely a strategic play for BG... PESs's's's's   best csg acreage is right on the sweet spot of the Walloon fairway - between ex-QGC and ex-SHG projects. - and their last market announcement seemed to me designed to emphasize that fact. 

It could even pan out that BG would be happy to make a deal for 851p or 852p -(whatever it is..?). and leave the rest to AOE/shell. 

Personally I think if BG wanted AOE - they would have waited until AOE had wrapped up PES and then gone in HARD.....
.... BUT - I don't think they want AOE - the resulting war with shell could be too costly...so PES is the next best thing, and thats the one the want... or at least part of it.

all just my 

... looking forward to the next installment.
-dukE


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## Dangerous (16 February 2009)

I think it needs to realized that guys like PES have no development at all... AOE's and QGC's are miles ahead of the game.... miles


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## anatol (17 February 2009)

oldblue said:


> Hi anatol.
> 
> If I am reading you correctly you're saying that BG won't counter-bid for PES but will instead look to takeover AOE?
> I can't see Shell standing by and letting that happen.




You are reading me correctly, BG or Shell will buy AOE. I was saying in December that Shell had to buy AOE. I told this depends on the analisys of future events. Now the day is coming. If Shell won't buy AOE, BG will try to buy it. Then Shell might bid again,.. or vise versa. One of them will buy AOE. 

That means we will see a big fight between Shell and BG very soon, (maybe this week, maybe tomorrow)

I told before, saying again, AOE has 20% of certified gas reserves, PAS has 5% (of QLD). Calculate the value then. Whether AOE is very cheap or PES is very expensive ! We have to accept one of these, they both can't be true. I would accept AOE is very cheap. (PES's market value is nearly half way of AOE, that is nonsense. As Dangerous said, AOE miles away from PES) 

Let AOE buy PES, then buy AOE. That was Shell's plan. So BG is trying to block that plan. So this fight is about AOE anymore, not about PES. 

Anyway this is being a long story here. I'll wait for the result.


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## Logique (17 February 2009)

Dukey said:


> It could even pan out that BG would be happy to make a deal for 851p or 852p -(whatever it is..?). and leave the rest to AOE/shell.
> 
> Personally I think if BG wanted AOE - they would have waited until AOE had wrapped up PES and then gone in HARD.....
> .... BUT - I don't think they want AOE - the resulting war with shell could be too costly...so PES is the next best thing, and thats the one the want... or at least part of it.
> -dukE




Revised all cash unconditional offer for PES $8.00 from BG this morning, see ASX ann's. Could be game over. This says to me PES is their target.  BG wants PES, or at least a big chunk of it.  Still don't see the rush for Shell (or BG) to attempt takeover of AOE, and the AOE price could get softer if BG's $8.00 offer gets them a big chunk of PES.


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## Dukey (17 February 2009)

Logique said:


> Revised all cash unconditional offer for PES $8.00 from BG this morning, see ASX ann's. Could be game over. This says to me PES is their target.  BG wants PES, or at least a big chunk of it.  Still don't see the rush for Shell (or BG) to attempt takeover of AOE, and the AOE price could get softer if BG's $8.00 offer gets them a big chunk of PES.




Yep - very nice counter and confirms they weren't playing silly buggers - not that I ever thought they were. PES makes prefect sense for BG. They are thinking big and long term. Wish I could buy BG shares cause they might win this battle yet.
As an aussie I really hope AOE can land a knock-out blow somehow. Maybe it will take Shell to step in and there goes a large chunk of our gas to another BigOil multinational.


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## oldblue (18 February 2009)

Dukey said:


> Yep - very nice counter and confirms they weren't playing silly buggers - not that I ever thought they were. PES makes prefect sense for BG. They are thinking big and long term. Wish I could buy BG shares cause they might win this battle yet.
> As an aussie I really hope AOE can land a knock-out blow somehow. Maybe it will take Shell to step in and there goes a large chunk of our gas to another BigOil multinational.




I think that particular writing's been on the wall for some time now. Shell have paid AOE good money for 30% of their Aust CSM assets. Looks very much like a toss up between BG and Shell.


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## anatol (25 February 2009)

It has become obvious today that AOE will not bid for PES anymore. 

What if ; AOE buys another %16 PES shares over $8 from the market and goes over 50.1% together with Shell, and take the control of PES. (This is what BG wants to do, but they are quite far from doing that for now)

After buying that %16 shares, AOE would not need to buy any more of them at that $8 price. Then they would leave it to the market. 

Would BG buy any more at $8 price if AOE  goes over 50.1% ? (I wouldn't as there is no meaning for it. It would be waste of money)

If not, what would happen to the SP of the PES shares who are still being hold by their owners. If no one buys, SP will go down. (It is going down now)

PES  holders should be very carefull. 

They should not trust to BG.
BG does not know what they are doing. BG should have bought half of ORG last year, or should have bought AOE instead of QGC, plus PES, easily. That would be  enough  for them. Now they are trying to repair their mistake by paying more money. They paid a lot of money to QGC which does not have a larger CSG reserves than AOE. Also QGC's big acrages (ATP688P in Bowen Basin and ATP769P in Surat Basin) are shared 50% with WCL and there are no certified reserves on these acrages (and the biggest acrage 688P in Bowen basin is not very hopefull because of the volcanic staff mixed in the CSG here). ATP811P (next to PES acarage in Bowen Basin) and ATP693P are already left by WCL as there was no hope for CSG in them.  So what is left? There are some acrages in Surat Basin, but they are not enough. Who is left? PES and AOE ! Can BG buy them? Not sure!

I would sell PES shares over $8 now and buy AOE shares if I was holding PES shares.

(I am an AOE share holder)


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## oldblue (25 February 2009)

If AOE buys any PES shares on market they will have to increase their offer to the highest price they pay and pay that for any shares taken to date.
I don't see that happening.


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## Dukey (25 February 2009)

oldblue said:


> If AOE buys any PES shares on market they will have to increase their offer to the highest price they pay and pay that for any shares taken to date.
> I don't see that happening.




Interesting oldblue - I wasn't aware of that rule  - but i guess it makes sense.  I  presume the same applies to BG??

what if they get a 'proxy' to buy their shares on market, and then buy them for the offer price off market  (obviously paying the difference some other way?) - underhanded tactic of course - but I'm sure it happens.

(we all know by now - ATSIC is a useless, toothless pussy cat! )


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## oldblue (26 February 2009)

Yes, BG have to play by the same rules of course.

I believe that "associates" of a bidder are also bound by this but I'm not clear on what the definition is and whether Shell would be so regarded in relation to AOE.

May still be an act or two to play out yet!


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## anatol (6 March 2009)

Does anyone know what the hell was that 100 AOE shares purchase was being processed in every 6 seconds today? Actaully that was happening yesterday too. It was in auto mode when the SP is $2.50, and was going up to $2.51, $2.52, $2.53...!!!! (Stopped if it was under $2.50) Never seen anything like that before !


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## beerwm (6 March 2009)

looked back at the course of trades,

some 100 lots at 2.49, too.

my guess, probably about 2000 100lot traded
$500,000 worth of AOE being accumulated.


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## Dukey (10 March 2009)

Comsec currently showing 7.4 Mill AOE shares traded already today - while over the last couple of weeks AOE has traded less than 3Mill shares - in a full day.
... interesting


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## anatol (10 March 2009)

7,000,000 shares were sold in one lot in preopen session this morning. This is 1% of the company.

Something is happening soon. (see my old posts above) 

I am still insisting that BG's real target is AOE, not PES. 

BG takeover of AOE looks very soon to me (in next two weeks)

BG looks like it won't be able to achieve 90% of PES. (PES shares are floating in the market, can't go up).

Shell looks like it has left the game (as I told before). 

AOE owns 20% of PES ($200M) plus has more than $500M in cash. Total $700M cash value for BG. BG is not that much stupid, not to see this value! 

As I told before if both BG and AOE leaves buying PES, what's going to  happent to remaining shares? (most PES holders are still dreaming though).

People buying BOW, BUL, etc. shares, and their prices went up to roof ! There is no such a value on this shares. I don't know why they are buying at those prices while leaving AOE at $2.50 mark. Someone was saying on this forum "Stupidity is not a virus but spread out easily"  (I like the meaning) That fits to this situation very very nicely. 

See what's going to happen.


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## anatol (10 March 2009)

Dukey said:


> Comsec currently showing 7.4 Mill AOE shares traded already today - while over the last couple of weeks AOE has traded less than 3Mill shares - in a full day.
> ... interesting




Dukey, 7m shares was traded at $2.51 preopen in one lot. Not during the trade now. but the price is going up.


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## anatol (10 March 2009)

Every 6 seconds automatic bidding machine is buying 100 AOE shares again today. But it started at $2.63 this time (before it was buying between $2.49-$2.53). Those guys has increased the bar. This means AOE share price won't come below $2.60 anymore. Interesting!


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## Dukey (10 March 2009)

anatol said:


> 7,000,000 shares were sold in one lot in preopen session this morning. This is 1% of the company.
> 
> Something is happening soon. (see my old posts above)
> 
> ...




BG went for PES first for a very good reason - they are right next door to PES's 852P and they know what PES have there, and it's a big tenement... and BG  want it baaaaaaaaaaaaad. they won't let it go.

It's possible that BG will go for AOE - but I still maintain that if they wanted AOE and PES - they should have got AOE first, or let them eat pes and then get both together.

It could be a strategy to bring AOE to the bargaining table over PES.??

Or How about STO?? or some other big player?
or could it be part of a financing arrangement for AOE somehow.

- just thinking aloud - E


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## anatol (10 March 2009)

Dukey said:


> BG went for PES first for a very good reason - they are right next door to PES's 852P and they know what PES have there, and it's a big tenement... and BG  want it baaaaaaaaaaaaad. they won't let it go.
> 
> It's possible that BG will go for AOE - but I still maintain that if they wanted AOE and PES - they should have got AOE first, or let them eat pes and then get both together.
> 
> ...




I explained before that if AOE would buy PES, BG would not be able to buy AOE. AOE would be very strong and AOE and Shell were sticking very tightly that time. Then, BG put an obstacle to AOE by bidding PES,.. Shell has showed its unwillingness in this game,.. (I told this before too) 

...and now BG and AOE is fighting face to face. I am sure BG will buy AOE. But OAE will not sell itself easily and at a cheap price. That is the game IMO. 

If you don't think as a PES shareholder who still holds PES shares, you would see and understand what I mean. (Sorry I am not saying you are biased but frankly speaking). 

I am not sure why BG would pay so much money to STO, if it could buy AOE and PES, while already has QGC and SGL tenements. it is huge and enough.


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## Nero64 (10 March 2009)

Hey Anatol. 

If you assumption is right about BG being interested in AOE. 

What value do you place on AOE compared to say PES and QGC. 

BG can't continuosly play this takeover game in this current economic climate surely. 

Xstrata played this game and it is paying for it now. 

BG wouldn't have endless pools of money. There would have to be some level of caution displayed. 

AOE are playing a smart game though. The market it convinced something is brewing as well, but if it an act then AOE SP will pay for it. 

Why would somebody sell 7Mill shares if they sensed being taken over?

Seems a bit odd.


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## anatol (10 March 2009)

Nero64 said:


> Hey Anatol.
> 
> If you assumption is right about BG being interested in AOE.
> 
> ...




The value for AOE would be valued with its 1P, 2P & 3P reserves of course.  They have 2600 2P reserves. When QGC was sold to BG, it had same amount of reserves (I am not very sure though), and it was sold at $5.5b. If you consider over $500m cash in hand of AOE and $200m (20%) from PES shares hold by AOE, its price is not less than $5.5 a share. That makes its value 700m shares x $5.5 = $ 3.85billion. Still cheaper than QGC. If you consider it at $5.5b, than its share price for takeover would be $7.85. Not sure if BG would pay this much. 

BG has a budget for this business. it is about $13.5b. This was the price what they wanted to pay for Origin. They did not spend this much yet. Only $5.5b to QGC. 

7m shares was certainly sold as off-market IMO. We don't know how this happens but I believe BG's associates are buying AOE shares in the market and will transfer them to BG later on.


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## Dukey (10 March 2009)

anatol said:


> I explained before that if AOE would buy PES, BG would not be able to buy AOE. AOE would be very strong and AOE and Shell were sticking very tightly that time. Then, BG put an obstacle to AOE by bidding PES,.. Shell has showed its unwillingness in this game,.. (I told this before too)
> 
> ...and now BG and AOE is fighting face to face. I am sure BG will buy AOE. But OAE will not sell itself easily and at a cheap price. That is the game IMO.
> 
> ...




****e I'm tired of this Anatol - you obviously believe you KNOW everything and you misunderstand what others post - time and time again.  Where are you from ?

I'm saying it _COULD BE (not IS) _someone other than BG buying AOE shares.
- someone like STO...  
_I'm not saying _that BG is buying STO.  at all.

... though nothing is impossible
--------------

Just for the record Shell announced they would sell to BG - the day after I postulated the possibility.


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## anatol (10 March 2009)

Dukey said:


> ****e I'm tired of this Anatol - you obviously believe you KNOW everything and you misunderstand what others post - time and time again.  Where are you from ?
> 
> I'm saying it _COULD BE (not IS) _someone other than BG buying AOE shares.
> - someone like STO...
> ...




Dukey, 
don't make any comments on my post if you don't like what I say. Stay silent to my posts. This is the only way we don't fight here. All my posts are IMO. I can use "is, will, could would,etc" whatever. Why it is bothering you?

Mind your own business! OK?

I am not posting anything on PES forum because of your offencive attitude. 

I know what you mean by saying "where are you from"? You are trying to offend me in a different way? Racist way, because you did not like my english! I don't care what you think. I am from here ! And I know where your kind of people are from too.


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## skc (10 March 2009)

So one's from a bottle and the other from an unknown galaxy far far away, but can't the genie and an alien just get along? 

Several up days in a row, coupled with strong-ish volume today for AOE, but still well within recent range of $2.4 to $2.7. Corporate actions don't always play out as quickly as we wish.


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## Logique (10 March 2009)

The group of analysts whose opinions Comsec reports - have quietly downgraded AOE in the last few days.


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## Dukey (10 March 2009)

Logique said:


> The group of analysts whose opinions Comsec reports - have quietly downgraded AOE in the last few days.




he he  - that alone is almost enough to make me buy!!  I think those analysts follow each other too much. not enough independent thinking goes on in their world.

but then I'm a contrary type....  

_ ....and apparently racist _!! - this despite the fact that I've recently spent 4 years living in Japan, almost married a Japanese lady, ate lunch daily with a classroom full of cute little J-kids, and my favourite country in the world is Thailand - because they are the friendliest, gentlest people I've met (and great food!)
-  be carefull spraying the 'R' word about Anatol - especially about someone who you do not know at all. there are plenty of racists in this country - but I'm not one of them.


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## anatol (10 March 2009)

Dukey said:


> he he  - that alone is almost enough to make me buy!!  I think those analysts follow each other too much. not enough independent thinking goes on in their world.
> 
> but then I'm a contrary type....
> 
> ...




I am not interested who you are or where you are from. You have already showed who you are. I can easily comment that you only like the people who keep their head down. Wrong address! I am not one of them. Don't comment on my post as well. Mind your own business. Hold your horse and PES. That's it. No more reply to you.


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## oldblue (10 March 2009)

Take it easy, guys.

I value your opinions and don't want to see the moderators send either of you to the sin bin.
The AOE/ coal seam gas scene is intriguing and I for one can't see which of several ways things could break. Let's keep discussing the possibilities!


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## grace (10 March 2009)

Nero64 said:


> Why would somebody sell 7Mill shares if they sensed being taken over?
> 
> Seems a bit odd.




Mathews Capital sold their significant holding in Pure Energy at $1.40 to Shell.  Then look what happened.

Some things just don't make that much sense sometimes!  I guess it is what we read into it that counts.


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## beerwm (10 March 2009)

Anatol makes a good point about the 13billion [ or whatever] that was offered to Orgin. So there is still some money BG can toss around.

Whether or not they acquire AOE, i find this highly unlikely.

There first offer for PES was conditional for 50.1%, so providing they form a takeover 100%, i'd say they would be satisfied for the time-being, getting double the reserves they played for.


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## anatol (11 March 2009)

Interview with AOE CEO Nick Daviesin Amsterdam, where he was attending the Flame European Gas Conference, by Bloomberg. (No comment by me)


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aSb1.B0FYZ5E&refer=australia

Arrow Is at ‘Difficult Point’ in Bid for Pure Energy, CEO Says 
Share | Email | Print | A A A 

By Ben Farey

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Arrow Energy Ltd. is at a “difficult point” in its plan to acquire Pure Energy Resources Ltd., now that BG Group Plc has raised its stake to almost 30 percent, Arrow Energy Chief Executive Officer Nick Davies said. 

“We do still stand a chance,” Davies said today in an interview in Amsterdam, where he was attending the Flame European Gas Conference. “If we decide to raise our bid then clearly we are still in the game.” 

Arrow, which owns 20.2 percent of Pure, is considering whether to join 11.2 percent owner Royal Dutch Shell Plc in accepting BG’s A$1.03 billion ($654 million) cash offer for Pure. BG holds 29.2 percent of the Australian coal seam exploration and production company. 

“It’s a difficult point for us to be in pole position, whichever way we go at the end,” Davies said. “We are still talking about it. We’ve not made a decision yet.” 

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Farey in Amsterdam at bfarey@bloomberg.net 

Last Updated: March 9, 2009 09:05 EDT


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## Nero64 (19 March 2009)

Just a comment on the Appendix 3B that came out yesterday. 

85251 shares were issued to PES security holders. So that means a small amount of PES holders accepted Arrow's offer. 

Also note total arrow shares is 704,225,479. Just wanted to ask members the relevance of listing this?

thanks


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## Dangerous (19 March 2009)

JP Morgan released a report on STO a few weeks ago in which they stated what i had previously only known as gossip - AOE gas is not as higher quality.  They use a graph showing the the different fairways and basins - Surat, Bowen, Wallooons, etc...

They suggest that it is unlikely AOE will be taken over.  

As we know these are the boys with the trading weight....


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## anatol (19 March 2009)

That kind of things happened to QGC too. Gossips ! 
Whatever they say, AOE has 25% of QLD gas reserves. And they have a lot more to explore. Some very big tenements are still waiting for Native title permissions. 

They hammered QGC down to $2.40 from $4.80 in 2 weeks (end of Sept. - beginning of Oct 2008), then put a bid at $5.75 while it was trading around $3.10 on 23rd of Oct. People thought that they had a good price. Good work, wasn't it. 

Something is definitly going on about AOE. Volume is very high (over 4m every day). There are auto share purchases in very 6 second (it was 100 shares before now 699 shares) in a price range. 

Most importantly AOE is very quite. Looks like something is going to happen.


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## kingbrown (19 March 2009)

I agree its gone very very quite 
And AOE dont want to raise the white flag on PES just yet ??

We all know the large energy predators are out there with very *big *cheque books wanting in on this sector 

the big Q ??
Which CSM will they have a crack at next ?? 

i do own AOE just in case 
But my money is on a few smaller strategic CSM mobs being gobbled up 1st

Any comments ?


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## TheAbyss (19 March 2009)

kingbrown said:


> I agree its gone very very quite
> And AOE dont want to raise the white flag on PES just yet ??
> 
> We all know the large energy predators are out there with very *big *cheque books wanting in on this sector
> ...




AOE have already let their offer for PES lapse so the white flag is unfurled and flying in the wake of BG.

My tip is BPT selling Tipton West and VPE CSG both bought by BG.

AOE may then complete the picture by selling their holding in full to Santos or Shell.

NSW - ESG is priced at a premium already so they may have to do some buying themselves or not much will happen in NSW IMO.

Just my 2 cents and not a lot of evidence to back my theories.


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## Dangerous (20 March 2009)

anatol said:


> That kind of things happened to QGC too. Gossips !
> 
> ....
> 
> They hammered QGC down to $2.40 from $4.80 in 2 weeks (end of Sept. - beginning of Oct 2008), then put a bid at $5.75 while it was trading around $3.10 on 23rd of Oct. People thought that they had a good price. Good work, wasn't it.




Anatol, what if JP Morgan had said that AOE were a takeover target.  Would you use that to support your argument?  The second thing is is that the whole mkt was crashing around QGC at that time.  

Here is what the report said:

"*Would Shell consider a potential takover of Arrow Energy first/instead?*  It could but unlikely, in our view, based on the economics of coal seam gas acreage held by Santos, BG and Origin is superior to that held by Arrow.  Figure 1 shows a chart presented by Origin at JP Morgans's 2008 CSM corporate access day.  the chart shows that the best results in QLD in terms of reserves recovery per well and also in terms of the average peak flowrate per well are achieved from the Fairview and Spring Gully fileds in the Bowen Basin, and also acreage in the Undulla Nose area of the Surat Basin.  Much of Arrow's acreage is outside this area, as we highlight in Figure 2.  With much lower anticipated reserves per well and lower peak flowrates, the economics of CSM-LNG would be inferior from Arrow's acreage compared to Santos' Fairview field.  We believe that this issue has been highlighted by Arrow's bid for Pure Energy"

I had heard this of AOE before but never seen it presented in such a convincing manner (sorry i could not attach graphs).  I think i had previously stated that AOE will be taken over.  I stated this on the basis of how developed their infrastructure is compared to the PES's of the industry.  PES is just a few holes in the ground with well head equipment whereas the AOE and QGC have trunklines, compression facitlies, gathering systems and everything else necessary for production.

I am holding some AOE but think critical analysis of stocks, or anything for that matter, important (see my CSG-LNG posts on KAR forum).  Let us just wait and see - more "AOE will get taken over posts" are unlikely to change the outcome.


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## anatol (20 March 2009)

Dangerous said:


> Anatol, what if JP Morgan had said that AOE were a takeover target.  Would you use that to support your argument?  The second thing is is that the whole mkt was crashing around QGC at that time.
> 
> Here is what the report said:
> 
> ...




I wouldn't beleive what those guys say at all. They are the ones manupulating the market. That's for  sure for me. I make my own research. Do you beleive if they see an crutial point and they would tell this to market ? No..!  

The above report is right in some points. But I beleive it is not the acrage issue although AOE has got the biggest acrage is true. (I can send the tenements maps to your private email address dangerous.) Origin and Santos have the best known gas acrages, that is true too. 

Yes, it is about the gas flow and quality of gas, everyone knows this. The right point is, Santos and Origin have got the best acrages ; Fairview and Spring Gully. Arrow deos not have much around this area. PES does not have much too ..! But look at their SP !

More importantly, if you look at the certified reserves Arrow has the 25% of whole QLD. This is written on QLD Government statistics. (I can email these too). Santos and ORG don't have more certified 2P reserves than AOE (inc.the 30% sold to Shell, of course) And that 2600 2P reserve is certified on only 10% of their acrages. Santos and Origin  is not like that. Their reserves are nearly all in same area. So very much explored.

What about that? I am wondering why dont' they tell that on their report? 

Gas flow, gas quality, etc. This gas will go to Asian market, especially China. Even someone got theinferior quality gas, it will still be easily sold. This issue was an argument 2 years ago when Woodside told they were not interested in CSG because it was inferior gas. Tey said they don't need it as they had enough LNG.! They you go. Everyone has a different point. 

I am started to think Shell may takeover Santos which would be too expensive for BG to buy. (market cap is about 9b now, takeover would be 15b !) BG can't afford that much money. Their shares are already going down in UK because they are considered making risky investments. But Shell may do it. But I am not sure why Shell would do it aither! I believe Shell will go out of this market. They have enough investments all around the world on LNG (I explained this before) 

So there is no one interested much in this CSG market other than BG 
anymore IMO,


----------



## bassmanpete (25 March 2009)

Arrow's price up 24 cents today. Anyone think an announcement is imminent or is it just following the general trend?


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## Jimminy (25 March 2009)

anatol said:


> I am started to think Shell may takeover Santos which would be too expensive for BG to buy.
> 
> So there is no one interested much in this CSG market other than BG
> anymore IMO,




You should read what you write sometimes.... on one hand Shell may be interested in STO....and then you say no one other than BG is interested much in CSG...

I guess all the t/o action in the csg sector that has continued this year has been a figment of out imagination and that those parties involved have gone cold on the idea.

And I guess the action from AGL means they are not interested any more either.


----------



## anatol (25 March 2009)

Jimminy said:


> You should read what you write sometimes.... on one hand Shell may be interested in STO....and then you say no one other than BG is interested much in CSG...
> 
> Read it carefully Jimminy;
> "I started to think Shell may takeover Santos which would be too expensive for BG to buy. .......  *But I am not sure why Shell would do it either! I believe Shell will go out of this market*...)"
> ...


----------



## jancha (25 March 2009)

Anatol,
         If Shell are no longer interested in CSG why did they have 11% of Pes ( AOE 20%) & why do they hold 30% of AOE & a 10% share of their international interests? Surely if they weren't interested they wouldn't be in the position where they are. I do hold AOE shares & think they're under valued. I think that PES was sold at a premium price & not at their true value. Both SHELL & AOE have done nicely out of the sale.


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## stevenc (25 March 2009)

Gday everyone, relatively new to the share market game and I am no financial wizard here so I have a question in regards to the AOE vs BG over PES saga. I own some AOE shares and have been following the takeover war over PES which has been interesting to watch for a newbie. What has surprised me is the fact AOE who had a fair stake in PES was effectively allowed to bump up the price of PES in the war, makes me wonder if they were serious about the offer or was it just a ploy to push up the price and take the money and run.


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## subi1 (25 March 2009)

stevenc said:


> Gday everyone, relatively new to the share market game and I am no financial wizard here so I have a question in regards to the AOE vs BG over PES saga. I own some AOE shares and have been following the takeover war over PES which has been interesting to watch for a newbie. What has surprised me is the fact AOE who had a fair stake in PES was effectively allowed to bump up the price of PES in the war, makes me wonder if they were serious about the offer or was it just a ploy to push up the price and take the money and run.




Maybe they wanted PES but weren't prepared to go higher. 

They have a lot of acreage to explore of their own so possibly they chose to go with that rather than using cash and increasing the no. of their shares on issue.


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## eddyeagle (26 March 2009)

bassmanpete said:


> Arrow's price up 24 cents today. Anyone think an announcement is imminent or is it just following the general trend?





There seems to be a bit of speculative excitement in this whole sector at the moment. 

From AIR MIDDAY report:

_Oil Search, Santos, Beach Petroleum and Eastern Star Gas flying on takeover speculations with consolidation in the Coal Seam Methane (CSM) space. _


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## phong_01 (27 March 2009)

If you look at the tenements of BG, AOE, BOW, PES, they are very close to each other and close to the proposed LNG facility.  It would make sense that BG will consolidate AOE and BOW as well.  It maybe a matter of time.


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## Dangerous (3 April 2009)

Great time to get out of arrow for a handsome profit.... their tenements are so sub standard that they are the only ones who will buy BPT's interest and at less than $1/GJ (2P)...

Perhaps AOE could launch a takeover of themselves.


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## anatol (3 April 2009)

Dangerous said:


> Great time to get out of arrow for a handsome profit.... their tenements are so sub standard that they are the only ones who will buy BPT's interest and at less than $1/GJ (2P)...
> 
> Perhaps AOE could launch a takeover of themselves.




I am out, maybe in later. 
Who knows ! The next takeover of AOE might be MEL (Metgasco) or BUL (Blue Energy). BOW would be expensive for AOE, BG could buy it.


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## Nero64 (3 April 2009)

Why are you guys getting out of Arrow for. This deal is good for its future:

Post BPT Acquisition:

2P: 1644
3P: 4791
1P: 370

Its csg holdings will nearlly match Sanotos'

People are starting to see the value in this company especially after it went toe to toe with the much bigger BG. 

It just made a 5.5 month high.


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## Dukey (3 April 2009)

Nero64 said:


> Why are you guys getting out of Arrow for. This deal is good for its future:
> 
> Post BPT Acquisition:
> 
> ...




I agree - I won't be selling AOE unless my hand is forced. Of course everyone trades or invests differently. But AOE is bottom drawer for me. 

AOE tenements have done them fine so far and those reserves you posted speak for themselves. 
- But I don't expect a t/o of arrow soon. More likely IMO is they will do some more shopping after buying beach's csg rights.


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## Dangerous (5 April 2009)

anatol said:


> I am out, maybe in later.
> Who knows ! The next takeover of AOE might be MEL (Metgasco) or BUL (Blue Energy). BOW would be expensive for AOE, BG could buy it.




BOW and BUL are the most overpriced ridiculous CSG stocks around at the moment.

BUL mkt cap is $100M yet they don't have one GJ certified

BOW have 105PJ, 40c/gj on PES values, yet it is valued at close to $2/GJ... crazy!  

MEL on the other hand have same reserves as ESG yet their cap is one-tenth!


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## anatol (5 April 2009)

Dangerous said:


> BOW and BUL are the most overpriced ridiculous CSG stocks around at the moment.
> 
> BUL mkt cap is $100M yet they don't have one GJ certified
> 
> ...




Dangerous, I exactly agree with you. 
BOW is very much overpriced (or there should be something we don't know). Its directors use the same slides and maps over over again on their presentation. There is nothing new but its price goes up every day. BUL has got nothing. Yes, MEL and ESG has a lot of potential and their prices are much more reasonable IMO.


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## Dangerous (6 April 2009)

anatol said:


> Dangerous, I exactly agree with you.
> BOW is very much overpriced (or there should be something we don't know). Its directors use the same slides and maps over over again on their presentation. There is nothing new but its price goes up every day. BUL has got nothing. Yes, MEL and ESG has a lot of potential and their prices are much more reasonable IMO.




Has not the market been very forgiving of Bow's ridiculous offer for RPM when QGC took them over?...

I have no idea what they were thinking back then


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## phong_01 (6 April 2009)

Here are the reasons that I think BOW price is high:

- In terms of quality, they rate coal in Surat and Bowen basin has the best quality.  Bow just obtained some of the last tenements of the Surat and Bowen basin area
- BOW will have their reserve certified during the year.  People is expecting on the potential of the reserve as the area is very close to PES, AOE, QGC where reserve has been proven
- Location: close to the planned LNG plant of BG and AOE
- As its tenements are next to BG and AOE, eventually it will be taken over by either BG or AOE


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## travwj (14 April 2009)

Arrow seems to be going okay, but it will trade above $3.00 during the day and then drop back below this resistance level later in the day.  Would be good to see it to break through this level and continue on it's upward trend.





Trav


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## bagasas (15 April 2009)

What do people think of today's announcement to the ASX about Arrow's CSG reserves, in which they claim 20 trillion cubic feet (about 20,000 petajoules) for the Fort Cooper coal beds, and speculate there might be up to 70 trillion cubic feet in all of their acreage? The latter figure would mean AOE has control over as much gas as the whole North West Shelf project, and even if exaggerated or not all commercially exploitable, is still a huge resource for a company with a market cap of about $2 billion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZTMUHjKVoOE


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## Nero64 (15 April 2009)

I wish I was pyramiding on this stock. I remember it going down to 1.90 or so when it announced the takeover of PES. Its future looks pretty good that's assuming the CSG to LNG becomes viable long term. BOW shot up as well.


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## Wysiwyg (15 April 2009)

Nero64 said:


> I wish I was pyramiding on this stock. I remember it going down to 1.90 or so when it announced the takeover of PES. Its future looks pretty good *that's assuming the CSG to LNG becomes viable long term*. BOW shot up as well.





I`m interested to know why you think that. Would it have something to do with the environmental impact studies, safety or the feasibility of the whole project. It wouldn`t be the first time a major project has been canned. Given it is the first of its kind.

Anyway Arrow say they have the gas. My bold.



> Gladstone pilot wells a success: 15th April 2009
> 
> ARROW Energy Ltd is increasingly confident it can deliver a reliable gas supply to the proposed Gladstone liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Queensland.
> 
> ...


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## grace (16 April 2009)

bagasas said:


> What do people think of today's announcement to the ASX about Arrow's CSG reserves, in which they claim 20 trillion cubic feet (about 20,000 petajoules) for the Fort Cooper coal beds, and speculate there might be up to 70 trillion cubic feet in all of their acreage? The latter figure would mean AOE has control over as much gas as the whole North West Shelf project, and even if exaggerated or not all commercially exploitable, is still a huge resource for a company with a market cap of about $2 billion.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZTMUHjKVoOE




6 times the NW Shelf actually.

Very interesting results coming out of these recent drills.  I always used ex-CEO Richard Cottee (QGC) comments to evaluate drills, but there seem to be improvements in technology as we go along the path.

Cottee said that mD (millieDarcies) below 10 was going to be tough.  This is a measure of permeability.  This one mentioned has 1 mD, yet it seems to give surprisingly good results.  As I said, better technology going forward.  

Remember that Cocono came to QLD first and drilled the csg fields with no success and returned to the US without their bag of money.  Later drills (was it by Origin?) came up with plenty of gas.  

Coal of 6 - 50 metres is fantastic of course.  I own quite a few of these, but I might have to buy some more on the next US explosion!

Comments appreciated.


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## Dangerous (16 April 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> I`m interested to know why you think that. Would it have something to do with the environmental impact studies, safety or the feasibility of the whole project. It wouldn`t be the first time a major project has been canned. Given it is the first of its kind.




See my comments on the KAR thread.... But to summarise some risks

1.  ridiculous amount of wells.  1000 odd CSG wells for one train. WPL needs .  Yes WPL ones are more expensive, but managing thousands of wells is a logistical head ****.
2.  Ramp up gas - you can't just provide a plant with 500tj/day without ramping up, due to dewatering.  STO ramp up is 2 years.  WPL-Pluto is 7 days
3.  huge amounts of water and no feasible ideas of where to put it (some see this as opportunity)
4.  Never been done before
5.  ORG want 10,000 plus wells
6.  CSG has huge footprint - gathering systems, trunklines, compression facilities, etc.  This could create land access problems down the track although no glitches thus far.
7.  Gladstone harbour - will need to dredge themselves a new dubai just to get a ship in
8.  Bridge to Curtis island needs to be built
9.  Companies are wasting time and money but not consolidating now
10.  Oil price - when the price of oil was $140 the companies were going on about a multi billion NPV even at $70, the price at which they did the analysis.... I think it will be a while before oil is at $70 again.  Some bad demand figures last night - OPEC will have to work harder


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## Wysiwyg (16 April 2009)

Dangerous said:


> See my comments on the KAR thread.... But to summarise some risks




Yep thanks for that. The well connections and transport to the coast is going to take a looonnggg time.


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## Dangerous (17 April 2009)

grace said:


> 6 times the NW Shelf actually.
> 
> I always used ex-CEO Richard Cottee (QGC) comments to evaluate drills, but there seem to be improvements in technology as we go along the path.




Grace, do not forget that at one AGM he said china were building two coal fired power stations a week and then a few months later he said one a day....


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## travwj (8 May 2009)

Arrow has been going very nice of late. I thought that it might of slowed down or have a little resitance at  $3.50, but it went through rather easy, tested $3.50 as support and then kept going on it's upward trend. Up 16c today to close at $3.80, although the volume is a little low. All of this with out any news or information being released recently. Since my last post, about a month ago it has gone up 80c. Not bad at all.

Trav

check out the chart.


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## Dukey (8 May 2009)

indeed - it's been a surprisingly nice ride since the failed t/o of PES. I'm still wondering who they are looking at  for another tilt...  I was thinking BOW - but it might be a tall order and the risk of BG coming in over the top again would be too much I think.
Maybe they'll bide their time for now if they are sure they already have enough gas in the ground.
Either way - i feel vindicated in having held on to my AOE shares - 50 odd % in a few weeks aint half bad!!

-e


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## xyzedarteerf (19 May 2009)

hoping this will hit the $4+ mark soon, have been holding a few for a few months now and its been a good ride. hope to hear some more positives from them soon.


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## Nero64 (19 May 2009)

It's been a bit muted today. Sellers lining up to get out around and before the $4 mark. Seems to have stalled some what. I think the whole CSG sector has been back and forth in a narrow range the past week. Origin is falling back and STO's capital raising and slow lethargic bounce. Sector is slowing. Oil rise could take it higher. Not sure. Some timely news about reserve certification might be on the cards.


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## Nero64 (29 May 2009)

Something is brewing. Don't know what. 

A stagering 41 million shares changing hands. 10 times the avg volume. 

Not sure if it is good or bad. 

Look at the overseas activity after the close:

05:16:11 PM 3.750 3,370,682 12,640,057.50 XTSXOS 
05:06:59 PM 3.750 1,858,075 6,967,781.25 XTSXOS 
05:02:38 PM 3.750 73,080 274,050.00 XTOS 
05:01:43 PM 3.750 2,586,499 9,699,371.25 XTSXOS 
05:00:50 PM 3.748 1,225,510 4,593,211.48 XTSXOS 
04:58:01 PM 3.748 1,545,724 5,793,373.55 XTSXOS 
04:49:36 PM 3.750 751,299 2,817,371.25 XTSXOS 
04:48:08 PM 3.748 478,405 1,793,061.94 XTSXOS 
04:39:18 PM 3.748 1,545,724 5,793,373.55 XTSXOS 
04:39:18 PM 3.748 1,545,724 5,793,373.55 XTSXOS 
04:32:37 PM 3.750 562,005 2,107,518.75 XTSXOS 
04:29:29 PM 3.750 95,947 359,801.25 XTSXOS 

If it is buying then this stock is going to smash above $4 and hold. Here's hoping anyway.


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## oldblue (30 May 2009)

Yes, huge volume of 43m, almost 6% of issued capital.

It's clear that someone is building a position but the interesting thing is that demand is being met readily with the SP down on the day, indicating that a big holder or holders are happy to lighten off.
Where does that leave us?


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## grace (30 May 2009)

oldblue said:


> Yes, huge volume of 43m, almost 6% of issued capital.
> 
> It's clear that someone is building a position but the interesting thing is that demand is being met readily with the SP down on the day, indicating that a big holder or holders are happy to lighten off.
> Where does that leave us?




Thanks for that bit of info - I missed that.  Where does that leave us?  Well, if someone is taking a position (which wouldn't surprise me at all), then I think we are in a very good position.  I learnt from PES that Shell were taking a position (from Mathews Capital) and look what happened there.  After all, they can't take a position unless someone else gives in.  I don't personally see it as a negative for Arrow.  Arrow is one that I do not sell, just add to it.  Here is a chart.  Busting $4 looks important.


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## eddyeagle (9 June 2009)

Arrow seems to have corrected by about 10% in the last few sessions. Down to around $3.60 from 4 bucks... This is probably healthy given it's strong run from $2 from February. 

Are people topping up at these levels? Buying on the dips?


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## Nero64 (9 June 2009)

> Are people topping up at these levels? Buying on the dips?




Personally I need a trigger or catalyst to go after a stock when in pull back mode. Whole CSG sector is taking a breather. Be patient and wait for the next trigger - assuming there is one


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## xyzedarteerf (12 June 2009)

just updating the news from Arrow today. Good luck to those holding.

Melbourne Royal Dutch Shell plc, Today welcomed the Queensland Governments decision to declare its Shell Australia Liquefied Natural Gas Project in Gladstone a significant project following submission of its Initial Advice Statement.


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## eddyeagle (24 June 2009)

Any Technical Analysis gurus care to share their thoughts on Arrow, which has had a decent 15-20% pull-back from it's highs?

I'm thinking there seems to be a fair bit of support in the $3.10-$3.20 region.


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## Nero64 (24 June 2009)

$3.16 is the 38.2% fib retracement level. Might be support there but won't know unless it falls further.


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## eddyeagle (23 July 2009)

After finding support just above $3, Arrow has jumped about 30% in the space of a few weeks! Now approaching all time highs! Can hopefully get through the $4 mark soon!


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## antzlovinit (29 July 2009)

eddyeagle said:


> After finding support just above $3, Arrow has jumped about 30% in the space of a few weeks! Now approaching all time highs! Can hopefully get through the $4 mark soon!




And it has reached the $4 mark. With new highs as well! A few months ago i predicted that in December AOE will reach $4.50 maybe might be a little bit earlier than expected!


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## bagasas (29 July 2009)

antzlovinit said:


> And it has reached the $4 mark. With new highs as well! A few months ago i predicted that in December AOE will reach $4.50 maybe might be a little bit earlier than expected!




Up today on high volume. Any ideas why other than the inevitable speculations about a Shell takeover?


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## antzlovinit (30 July 2009)

bagasas said:


> Up today on high volume. Any ideas why other than the inevitable speculations about a Shell takeover?




NEW highs..Possilby, dont know though..im on commsec and theres what currently now over 200 somethin buyers and what under 80 sellers..maybe some news ought to come out soon? Has there been any news recently?


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## oldblue (30 July 2009)

antzlovinit said:


> NEW highs..Possilby, dont know though..im on commsec and theres what currently now over 200 somethin buyers and what under 80 sellers..maybe some news ought to come out soon? Has there been any news recently?




The quarterly report will be due but it's more likely that the SP is being driven by enthusiasm for the csm business generally and the prospect that Shell may want to strengthen their position here.


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## oldblue (12 August 2009)

AOE's SP is up 4% today.

Seems to be moving on the back of LNG which is up 8%! Perhaps some news is expected there?


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## jancha (12 August 2009)

Or it could be that it's just correcting it self to the big drop the last few days to which would have been a lot more than the 4% gain you speak of today old blue.


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## oldblue (12 August 2009)

oldblue said:


> AOE's SP is up 4% today.
> 
> Seems to be moving on the back of LNG which is up 8%! Perhaps some news is expected there?




Well, the news was released yesterday wasn't it!  



LNG Ltd announced encouraging progress in its CSG to LNG project.
AOE benefitting as 10% shareholder in LNG Ltd and supplier of gas to the project.


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## Mad Mel (13 August 2009)

The Australian Financial Review published that there is speculation that Shell and PetroChina may do a joint bid for AOE.  Might have pushed some speculators on board.


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## Dukey (13 August 2009)

Arrow taking another major leap!!!

... nothing like a rumour to hot things up hey!   (see ASX speeding ticket and their response).  Big reserves increase obviously underpins the revaluation too - so investors are laughing and good on em.  I'll be back in when I can. They have proven they didn't need PES's gas to supply their LNG plant and they are off !!!!!! 
-d

..(as much as i'd love to watch the days trading - gotta go to work :-((   )


----------



## antzlovinit (13 August 2009)

Mad Mel said:


> The Australian Financial Review published that there is speculation that Shell and PetroChina may do a joint bid for AOE.  Might have pushed some speculators on board.




hmm good see $20/share for AOE...

well it looks like it might have pushed some speculators on board for LNG.


----------



## skyQuake (13 August 2009)

A few brokers initiating covering of AOE with buys, but announced today no takeover bid lol. What a downramp!


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## antzlovinit (13 August 2009)

skyQuake said:


> A few brokers initiating covering of AOE with buys, but announced today no takeover bid lol. What a downramp!




Well the rumour is working..Hopefully it will last the next few days! WOW it took this long for brokers to realise the potential of AOE.


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## gaps (16 August 2009)

anyone read the bloomberg about AOE rejecting the 3 billion AUD bid from Shell? it's rather low based on the sp right. what are the views on this takeover bid of 3 billion and the report adds on to say about a "revised bid??


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## vicb (18 August 2009)

It is interesting but the only source I can really locate as to the facts of the take over bid looming is the Daily telegraph. It seems all the stories and rumors  around are citing that source. 
Arrow itself has been very vague in its statements. As it was in relation to the pure take over bid.
Has anybody heard from any other news that is not indirectly from the daily telegraph.
I have been a long term holder of Arrow and will continue to hold arrow on a long term outlook. 
Would be interesting if it can flush out some other bidders.


----------



## Mad Mel (18 August 2009)

vicb said:


> Has anybody heard from any other news that is not indirectly from the daily telegraph.




The Sydney Morning Herald takes quite a dim view of Arrow's takeover chances:
Arrow does the rounds and comes up empty



> Xchange hears Arrow did receive a proposal from the most logical bidder, its joint venture partner, Royal Dutch Shell, earlier this year. But it was deemed a low-ball offer, so Arrow's corporate advisers at Citi sought to drum up interest from other players.
> 
> But in the end, it seems, other potential buyers like BG, Petronas, ConocoPhillips, Origin Energy and Santos were not all that interested in Arrow, and Shell was not willing to pay up. Arrow said yesterday it had not attracted interest from Chinese groups, although it did not seem to rule out the sale of a stake in its international business to Asian parties.
> 
> Arrow has plenty of acreage, but industry sources said most of it was not as productive as the prime ground held by its rivals, which makes it more costly to extract gas. And apart from Shell, the other players appear to have enough gas to meet most of their needs.


----------



## antzlovinit (18 August 2009)

vicb said:


> It is interesting but the only source I can really locate as to the facts of the take over bid looming is the Daily telegraph. It seems all the stories and rumors  around are citing that source.
> Arrow itself has been very vague in its statements. As it was in relation to the pure take over bid.
> Has anybody heard from any other news that is not indirectly from the daily telegraph.
> I have been a long term holder of Arrow and will continue to hold arrow on a long term outlook.
> Would be interesting if it can flush out some other bidders.





Have a look at todays AFR, page 22. Title is "Arrow all of a quiver on claims bid is on the way". Some interesting facts, also mentioning that both Santos and Origin are undervalued.


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## eddyeagle (17 September 2009)

Fat Prophets put a SELL on this today. However they put a buy on it at $4.55 about 3 weeks ago - i dont think they know what they are doing!

I have seen a couple of broker targets around $6 for Arrow.


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## vicb (17 September 2009)

eddyeagle said:


> Fat Prophets put a SELL on this today. However they put a buy on it at $4.55 about 3 weeks ago - i dont think they know what they are doing!
> 
> I have seen a couple of broker targets around $6 for Arrow.




That is a bit strange. 
I use to subscribe to fats but wondered about some of there recommendations. When they put a buy in on CUO (I think around the $1 mark when they recommended now worth nothing) that was enough for me.
One question remains for me, is the gas stocks becoming to oversupplied.
I will continue to hold Arrow.


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## swm79 (17 September 2009)

JP Morgan rates AOE as Underweight 16/09/2009 05:41PM

They've reviewed its return expectations for the proposed Curtis Island LNG project to create a more even split for the upstream and downstream components, which means a lowering of its valuation upside for the company from gas supply.

In the broker's view the share price currently includes a takeover premium and it sees such an outcome as unlikely, while uncertainties associated with commercialisation of its reserve base further supports its Underweight rating.

Target price is $3.29 Current Price is $4.15 Difference($0.86) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If AOE meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately - 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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## Colonel Klink (9 December 2009)

Howdy all,

Seems a bit quiet on the AOE thread so I thought I would rectify. Any thoughts on New Hope wanting to unload 17% stake and Bank of America taking up a 5% stake on the 4th December. 

I had a look at NHC, and the 5% doesn't seem to have come from them, well no statements anyway. Mind you, me not finding it doesn't mean a great deal!

Apparently there is a growing 'corporatisation' (their word)of Arrow going on , which seems to mean an increasing number of Shell appointments, ie arrow employee made redundant, Shell person instated. I don't know the extent of this, but I do know that Shell's influence is making Arrow long term workers edgy. Seems a bit like tail wagging the dog.

I guess you need systems as you get bigger and Shell trying to turn Arrow into a mini me might be regarded as a positive longer term. Nervous workers is not a good look though.

Of course, I hold.
Cheers Klink


----------



## oldblue (9 December 2009)

The BofA holding is only just above the disclosure level - 5.14% v 5% - so it's likely that they have bought over a period and are only now required to make the disclosure. Unlikely then that it's a chunk of New Hope's stock.

On the "Shellification" of AOE, this can only be to shareholders' benefit if it's binding Shell closer to AOE and increasing the likelihood of an eventual takeover offer. Not so good for AOE employees if it means that they're being overlooked, by-passed or made redundant, of course.


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## Colonel Klink (14 December 2009)

Old Blue.. thanks for clearing that up. I had not considered BofA  just reaching a point where disclosure became neccesssary. I wonder who New Hope are talking to. A 17% stake is substantial.
You would you think that they would have been in discussion with Arrow about buying stake, not made much progress, and announced it to try to put some competitive pressure on things? Certainly the price has eased back, which doesn't help New Hope or Arrow much. Thoughts anyone?
Cheers Klink


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## Colonel Klink (14 December 2009)

Looks as though it was a one off purchase after all.

BUSINESS SPECTATOR
Bank of America Corp buys 37.7m Arrow Energy shares

Source: News Bites

Bank of America Corporation bought 37,709,407 Arrow Energy shares on December 4, becoming a substantial shareholder with 37,709,407 shares (5.14%).

Cheers Klink


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## vicb (17 December 2009)

Maybe an interesting day for Arrow ahead.
Some big orders in early, with the pre open est 4.29.
Up 7% from yesterdays close of 3.99.
But then again it may just be some market manipulation, the open price will tell the story.
No news out yet that I can see.


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## skc (17 December 2009)

vicb said:


> Maybe an interesting day for Arrow ahead.
> Some big orders in early, with the pre open est 4.29.
> Up 7% from yesterdays close of 3.99.
> But then again it may just be some market manipulation, the open price will tell the story.
> No news out yet that I can see.




Don't get too excited.

Every single big stock is showing huge jumps on open - CBA and BHP both have 
match price up 10%.

Something to do with SPI expiry or options expiry. So don't be disappointed when the ASX200 don't jump 8% today


----------



## WiseMum (17 December 2009)

Santos match price also hugely up.  It could also be one of the funds with money sitting on the sidelines coming back in before the end of the year.  We'll soon see...


----------



## skyQuake (17 December 2009)

WiseMum said:


> Santos match price also hugely up.  It could also be one of the funds with money sitting on the sidelines coming back in before the end of the year.  We'll soon see...




And now its matching down heaps. Just SPI expiry playing games. Even some of the small/micro caps are matching funny
Also woodside comes out of trading halt today following their entitlement issue


----------



## WiseMum (17 December 2009)

... and many of those inflated match prices are now straight back down.  It seems SKC might be right!


----------



## eddyeagle (5 January 2010)

Looking at the AOE chart, do the movements from July 2009 to now, look like a flag to anyone else?

You had a move up from $3 to $4.75 on strong volume, followed by several months of consolidation and now the price seems to be breaking out of the flag. 

Thoughts?


----------



## Nero64 (5 January 2010)

I thought technically a downward facing flag or pennant should begin from the highest upper left hand point and not from the bottom. It seems more like a downward channel trend and it has just broken out of it. 

Sentiment, news and the overall market rise has caused it to leap forward. I wouldn't get to too technical. Next you will be seeing aliens and flying saucers. Beam me up Scotty


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## eddyeagle (28 January 2010)

Arrow Energy Limited (ASX:AOE, Arrow) is pleased to announce a significant reserves upgrade certified by independent consultants Netherland, Sewell and Associates Inc (NSAI) and MHA Petroleum Consultants LLC (MHA).
Arrow’s gross proved and probable (2P) reserves have increased 50.3 percent to 6,150 PJ while gross proved, probable and possible (3P) reserves are up 18.6 percent to 11,042 PJ. The company has added 3,458 gross 2P reserves in 12 months which substantially exceeded our target to add at least 1,000 PJ of gross 2P in 2009.

Deutsche Bank getting on board in the last few days.


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## vicb (13 February 2010)

Shell take over rumors may be back on the board.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...mpt-shell-to-make-offer-rbs-morgans-says.html


----------



## SteeleBryant (14 February 2010)

vicb said:


> Shell take over rumors may be back on the board.




Could happen. I think they are a pretty good price now. Might wait for an upward trend before investing though.


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## Dukey (15 February 2010)

I'm back in on AOE today for a few $$. 
-  Recent price correction, on top of reserves upgrades and generally undervalued,  - plus the consistent rumours - however remote the possibility - of a t/o, or even multiple  offers, and resulting premium give an extra incentive.
...- all these add up to good reasons to be in rather than out IMO.

- good luck all!!  - D


----------



## snowking (8 March 2010)

Saw some news this morning that Arrow may have been approached by Shell with a 3.3 billion takeover bid, which would equate to about $4.50 per share.

Article here http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Shell-bids-33bn-for-Arrow-Energy-report-says-pd20100308-3BRUY?OpenDocument&src=eaih&ir=4


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## vicb (8 March 2010)

snowking said:


> Saw some news this morning that Arrow may have been approached by Shell with a 3.3 billion takeover bid, which would equate to about $4.50 per share.
> 
> Article here http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Shell-bids-33bn-for-Arrow-Energy-report-says-pd20100308-3BRUY?OpenDocument&src=eaih&ir=4




Yes correct.
Plus a new share in arrow international.
The offer is $4.45 + shares in arrow international.
Depending what the new shares are worth the offer looks interesting and should be valued at higher then $4.50.


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## Dukey (8 March 2010)

gonna be very interesting watching the action today - though I got stopped out a week ago ... DOH... DOUBLE DOH!!

looking or an entry..


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## vicb (8 March 2010)

Yes will be interesting.
I will be looking to top up my holdings.
Offer I hope will be increased, offer is a little low.
Another bidder would be a great result but with Shells stake in AOE already it would make it very hard for another bidder.


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## laurie (8 March 2010)

Don't forget that NHC has a blocking parcel after the QGC rip off if this is sold off below $6 we are also going to be ripped off 

laurie


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## vicb (8 March 2010)

Just couldn't help myself.
Topped up my holdings again for a short term trade @ 5.02.
With the 1st offer in at $4.45 + new shares, there is not much in my opinion to loose at $5.02.
Hope to see another bidder come in. 
At the least a revised offer.


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## chops_a_must (8 March 2010)

vicb said:


> Yes correct.
> Plus a new share in arrow international.
> The offer is $4.45 + shares in arrow international.
> Depending what the new shares are worth the offer looks interesting and should be valued at higher then $4.50.




There really isn't much being priced in for further offers or the value of the new shares. If I didn't already have heaps of Arrow, I would be buying more. There is obviously a risk of the deal falling apart... but to me this sets an absolute base line for any future t/o, or minumum worth.

I can't see most shareholders accepting this deal.

I certainly wont. It will be worth a lot lot more than this deal is in 5-6 years at the most. And with the amount that I hold, and the length I've already held these for, as most know here, I can see absolutely no point in selling at this level.

I think it would be a massive travesty, and would be another huge foreign investment regret for Australia if it was to be sold at this price. It would mean Queensland effectively has very little Australian owned energy reserves, or future potential for Australian owned energy reserves in the region.


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## nunthewiser (8 March 2010)

Whoa ......long time no see chops ......... there was rumour going round that you been abducted by a pair of swedish nympho,s that tied you up and wore out all your assets .......


nice to see ya


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## chops_a_must (8 March 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Whoa ......long time no see chops ......... there was rumour going round that you been abducted by a pair of swedish nympho,s that tied you up and wore out all your assets .......
> 
> 
> nice to see ya




Haha... yeah you're close with the Swedish nympho thing. Nah, just moved to Darwin about 6 months ago and haven't been doing much apart from getting myself set up.

Back in Perth for a bit to graduate and bring my trading computer back with me, amongst other things, so I'll be around a bit more again.


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## vicb (8 March 2010)

chops_a_must said:


> There really isn't much being priced in for further offers or the value of the new shares. If I didn't already have heaps of Arrow, I would be buying more. There is obviously a risk of the deal falling apart... but to me this sets an absolute base line for any future t/o, or minumum worth.
> 
> I can't see most shareholders accepting this deal.
> 
> ...




Yes good points. I do not think they have much chance with that offer.
I see the price of .50 - .80 being thrown around for aoei. Not sure how correct that figure is right. But if it is in the ball park it will put the value at about 5.00 a share (pretty low).
Would of loved to have seen AOE in 2 - 3 years.
Have bought back in for a short term trade, happy to pick up a couple of % as an extra bonus.
Will be an interesting couple of weeks ahead.
All the best


----------



## Tysonboss1 (8 March 2010)

I won't accept at that price, AOE would be worth double that once the LNG plant is in production.

I can't see any other company making a rival bid when shell has a 30% stake. The only hope is for a vast number of share holders to reject the offer and maybe a higher price would be offered.

I think I would rather have an all cash offer made, The Arrow international assets are a bit of a rag bag of unproven assets,


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## Tysonboss1 (8 March 2010)

chops_a_must said:


> It would mean Queensland effectively has very little Australian owned energy reserves, or future potential for Australian owned energy reserves in the region.




Australia would still benefit from taxes and royalties from the operations, not to mention employement of staff and contractors in all the suporting industries. 

Foreign ownership doesn't really bother me if the price is right.


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## oldblue (8 March 2010)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I won't accept at that price, AOE would be worth double that once the LNG plant is in production.
> 
> I can't see any other company making a rival bid when shell has a 30% stake. The only hope is for a vast number of share holders to reject the offer and maybe a higher price would be offered.
> 
> I think I would rather have an all cash offer made, The Arrow international assets are a bit of a rag bag of unproven assets,




Shell's current stake is in AOE's Australian csg assets, not AOE itself. Anyone else bidding for AOE would start on an level field with Shell, assuming of course that they havn't already built a start through a nominee holding!

OK, maybe just wishful thinking on my part to some degree.

I hold AOE, BOW and STO.


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## chops_a_must (8 March 2010)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Australia would still benefit from taxes and royalties from the operations, not to mention employement of staff and contractors in all the suporting industries.
> 
> Foreign ownership doesn't really bother me if the price is right.




It adds absolutely zero benefit to the economy though. There may even be ways a foreign company can pay less taxes than an Australian one would.

Whether a company is Australian or foreign owned has little impact on employment. Probably slightly negative as more of the positions of higher authority would be flown in.

The biggest difference would be in a greater amount of money from operating profits staying in Australia, throughout the chain if the company remained Australian owned.

It always worries me when a foreign company buys up the best assets of an area, no matter what country, in what region or for what purpose. And there always has to be a premium paid for that loss of sovereignty the country has.


----------



## nioka (8 March 2010)

I'm happy to take today's price and invest the proceeds in BUL. BUL is at the same stage as AOE was when I made my first investment there. I would prefer that we were not selling more of the farm but for years now we have to keep selling off assets to fund the current account deficit.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (8 March 2010)

chops_a_must said:


> It adds absolutely zero benefit to the economy though. There may even be ways a foreign company can pay less taxes than an Australian one would.
> 
> Whether a company is Australian or foreign owned has little impact on employment. Probably slightly negative as more of the positions of higher authority would be flown in.
> 
> ...




QLD would still benefit greatly as staff income taxes, royalties and  company taxes from both aoe operations and supporting companies flow through the entire qld economy via government wages ( teachers, police, soldiers etc.etc) and other government spending.

We can't have it both ways, We can't have the likes of BHP and RIO mining the world and not have our doors open.

Plenty of aussie companies with large foreign investments.


----------



## chops_a_must (8 March 2010)

Tysonboss1 said:


> QLD would still benefit greatly as staff income taxes, royalties and  company taxes from both aoe operations and supporting companies flow through the entire qld economy via government wages ( teachers, police, soldiers etc.etc) and other government spending.
> 
> We can't have it both ways, We can't have the likes of BHP and RIO mining the world and not have our doors open.
> 
> Plenty of aussie companies with large foreign investments.




The difference being that energy and energy security is going to be an enormous issue over the next 30-40 years. It no longer then is a free trade issue but an independence and self-sufficiency issue.

If push comes to shove, then the location of the owners of the business are going to have a stronger loyalty to home. Foreign owned companies often have a much poorer environmental and worker welfare standard than home grown businesses, simply because of the potential for blowback and local understandings.

The point being that it will ultimately benefit the Australian economy if it is taken over, but would it be of greater benefit if it remained in majority Australian ownership? All things being equal then yes, it would be better if it remained in Australian hands.

Despite this, I think we both agree that it is an opportunistic grab on a dip over funding concerns, and the offer from what we gather really only values the company on its current assets, and does not even come close to factoring in future worth.


----------



## oldblue (8 March 2010)

I'm not sure about the "stronger loyalty to home" bit.

Without govt direction/intervention, admittedly not to be ruled out completely, companies will always sell their goods into the market offering the best return. That may or may not be to the benefit of "home".


----------



## chops_a_must (8 March 2010)

oldblue said:


> I'm not sure about the "stronger loyalty to home" bit.
> 
> Without govt direction/intervention, admittedly not to be ruled out completely, companies will always sell their goods into the market offering the best return. That may or may not be to the benefit of "home".




For example, in the 90s, Richard Court agreed to lobby strongly, and very successfully on behalf of Woodside for sale of LNG to the Japanese.

In return, Woodside gladly supplied cheap gas to WA on a long term contract.

It's much easier to gain control over Australian companies in a regulatory manner than it is multi-nationals because of various international agreements.


----------



## gooner (8 March 2010)

Tysonboss1 said:


> QLD would still benefit greatly as staff income taxes, royalties and  company taxes from both aoe operations and supporting companies flow through the entire qld economy via government wages ( teachers, police, soldiers etc.etc) and other government spending.
> 
> We can't have it both ways, We can't have the likes of BHP and RIO mining the world and not have our doors open.
> 
> Plenty of aussie companies with large foreign investments.




Government can also supertax the profits of Energy resources if it so chooses by increasing the Petroleum Resource Tax, so still plenty of levers.

I pulled out midway through the PES battle (sold at 666 as I recall vs final bid price of 825). Am going to hold AOE for a bit longer as sure there will be at least one bid increase in the absence of competition. With competition, who knows........

I hold AOE


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## Tysonboss1 (8 March 2010)

chops_a_must said:


> Despite this, I think we both agree that it is an opportunistic grab on a dip over funding concerns, and the offer from what we gather really only values the company on its current assets, and does not even come close to factoring in future worth.




Yes I agree, I would much rather continue to hold AOE than sell out at this level. The next three years will see many things benefit AOE's bottom line that are not fully priced into the offer price. 

2P reserves will probally more than double with in 3 years,
Much Higher prices for Gas should arrive due to the LNG plant,
Higher prices and volumes for domestic gas also as more is shipped south to cover higher usage growth in nsw and vic.
Higher electricity prices and volumes,

I would rather continue holding even if it ment the share price went back to $3.50 when the deal fell apart. 

The question is will the institutions have the same long term veiw, or will the sell out to make their figures look better before the end june.


----------



## grace (8 March 2010)

chops_a_must said:


> There really isn't much being priced in for further offers or the value of the new shares. If I didn't already have heaps of Arrow, I would be buying more. There is obviously a risk of the deal falling apart... but to me this sets an absolute base line for any future t/o, or minumum worth.
> 
> I can't see most shareholders accepting this deal.
> 
> I certainly wont. It will be worth a lot lot more than this deal is in 5-6 years at the most. And with the amount that I hold, and the length I've already held these for, as most know here, I can see absolutely no point in selling at this level.




Chops, I am so glad to see you back here.  Agree with your sentiment too.  Far too cheap.
While I have your attention, I must thank you for steering me into csg in the early days.  It was your initial research that directed many here on ASF to go for the minnows which became billion dollar takeovers.  Thank you.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 March 2010)

chops_a_must said:


> For example, in the 90s, Richard Court agreed to lobby strongly, and very successfully on behalf of Woodside for sale of LNG to the Japanese.
> 
> In return, Woodside gladly supplied cheap gas to WA on a long term contract.
> 
> It's much easier to gain control over Australian companies in a regulatory manner than it is multi-nationals because of various international agreements.



And in more recent times WA industry has been in crisis, and increasingly uncompetitive internationally, as gas prices soar...

That argument aside, my own view is that if you're going to buy into energy then now is the time. I don't have a link but certainly there's plenty of credible research that points toward an oil supply deficit (globally) about 3 years from now assuming "business as usual" consumption and that all announced major supply developments actually do proceed.

In terms of gas and Australia, one thing I'll go out on a limb and predict is that by the end of this decade there won't be any cheap (present price or close in inflation-adjusted terms) gas contracts available. We''ll be paying international pricing for gas as LNG is able to take huge volumes and companies choose to leave it in the ground for a 30 year LNG contract rather than sell it cheaply into the domestic market. 

I'm aware of at least one significnat (several % of total Australian production) electricity generator that has been acting on the assumption that this occurs for several years now. It is presumably also the _only_ reason there is still interest in building coal-fired plant - short term gas is comparable cost (plants are cheaper to build which offsets modestly higher fuel costs) but longer term it seems unlikely to remain so, hence there's still interest in coal despite the CO2-related legislative risks.

Thus far, it's all unfolding as expected with the majority of Australia's natural gas (from all sources) seemingly destined for LNG exports and the remainder priced comparably. Domestic prices set by the LNG market whilst oil prices (which tend to be a benchmark for LNG prices) rise - gas won't be cheap if that occurs. 

Oil and gas - both headed up in the future IMO simply based on supply and demand. Those producing oil/gas or alternatives (including renewable and coal-fired electricity) will profit, those consuming won't be so happy.


----------



## oldblue (9 March 2010)

John Durie (The Australian columnist) comments on the bid.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...n-rather-than-if/story-e6frg9if-1225838410329


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## chops_a_must (9 March 2010)

grace said:


> Chops, I am so glad to see you back here.  Agree with your sentiment too.  Far too cheap.
> While I have your attention, I must thank you for steering me into csg in the early days.  It was your initial research that directed many here on ASF to go for the minnows which became billion dollar takeovers.  Thank you.




No problems at all Grace. Have had the family and told everyone I know to get into Arrow for as long as I can remember. 



Smurf1976 said:


> And in more recent times WA industry has been in crisis, and increasingly uncompetitive internationally, as gas prices soar...




As the deals are gradually scaled out of...


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## Aithom (9 March 2010)

*Newbie questions regarding AOE March 2010*

Hi everyone, newbie question:

I notice today that Arrow Energy (AOE) has had some significant gains over the last couple of days, and I see it was listed in the top 5 on ASX for gains (up $1.63 finishing at $5.11?) as well as top 5 for values of trades ($236,463,737.17).

Can someone please explain to me the reason for this sudden spike in share price and trading? I notice in the announcements it shows "08/03/2010: Non-binding Conditional Proposal" and then "09/03/2010: Becoming a substantial holder from NAB".

If someone could just explain in basic terms the relationship between either of these announcements and the sudden rise in trading/share price that would be great 

Cheers


----------



## Nero64 (10 March 2010)

*Re: Newbie questions regarding AOE March 2010*

Royal Dutch Shell and Petro China offered shareholders $4.45 per security plus 1 share in Arrow's international business which the market values at 60c or so. 

NAB got in before it fell to $3.30 or something and then bought in some more. It says they bought in again on the 03/03/10. Maybe they knew something. 

Read the announcments and visit the AOE thread


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## Dukey (10 March 2010)

HI all - have had some trouble loading Aussiestocks website on my machine  in the past day or so....

Indeed - welcome back Chops. Long time no read!

On AOE - I'm still out at this stage - just crappy timing there... I might buy in yet - but more likely to throw more $$ at CXY at this stage.
- but the big question in my mind is about potential rival bidders for AOE - 
What do folks think - is it likely one will come out of the woodwork, or are Shell JV looking at clear passage?
I mean - does BG need more Gas?.... could Santos do it? or are they just waiting to be jumped themselves?....  what about Orign? .. and of course there are anumber of international players who could be inticed.


----------



## gooner (10 March 2010)

Dukey said:


> HI all - have had some trouble loading Aussiestocks website on my machine  in the past day or so....
> 
> Indeed - welcome back Chops. Long time no read!
> 
> ...




I hold AOE (SMSF and trading position) so very happy with the t/o proposal.  Personally, I think there is only upside as the first bid is very rarely the last bid and I would be buying more if I did not already hold plenty of AOE.  Bit concerned about STO bidding and sold down some STO on Monday just in case. Plenty of potential competition - BG, STO and even WPL if Voelte has had a CSG conversion.


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## gooner (11 March 2010)

Interesting article in street talk in AFR this morning about potential rival bidders. Article initially suggests rival offer is unlikely as Arrow has been up for sale for 2 years whilst only attracting Shell.  However, GDF Suez and BP are mentioned as left field candidates for a rival bid

I hold AOE


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## snowking (15 March 2010)

it looks like Arrow may be set to reject the offer

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Arrow-to-reject-Shell-Petrochina-3-bln-bid-paper-3JS58?OpenDocument&src=hp2



> Australia's Arrow Energy is set to reject this week Royal Dutch Shell and PetroChina's $3.3 billion joint bid, a paper said citing an unnamed source.


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## laurie (15 March 2010)

Well if they reject the offer and no other bid is received then the only option AOE has is to do a Capital Raising I would think Arrow would have spoken to New Hope Coal 

laurie


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## laurie (18 March 2010)

A song I liked way back was called "Silence is Golden" don't know if thats a good thing or not for AOE then again the Directors said "Do Nothing" maybe that's what they are doing 

laurie


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## adrunis_84 (19 March 2010)

Hmmm, trading halt on AOE until tuesday or an announcement is made.. ..looking forward to next week


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## laurie (20 March 2010)

adrunis_84 said:


> Hmmm, trading halt on AOE until tuesday or an announcement is made.. ..looking forward to next week




I wouldn't be look forward to next week if my holding in AOE is stolen from me like QGC was 

laurie


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## namrog (20 March 2010)

laurie said:


> I wouldn't be look forward to next week if my holding in AOE is stolen from me like QGC was
> 
> laurie




Couldn't agree more Laurie

Don't know if I should or can say this here, as I can't confirm it, but, 
my mail is that the board will recomend acceptance of the offer, which from my point of view will be little more than fat boy sanctioned theft.....

But it wouldn't surprise me if that's the way it goes, all of these Queensland Gas mobs have been sold for a pittance, shamefull for Australia really....


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## gooner (20 March 2010)

namrog said:


> Couldn't agree more Laurie
> 
> Don't know if I should or can say this here, as I can't confirm it, but,
> my mail is that the board will recomend acceptance of the offer, which from my point of view will be little more than fat boy sanctioned theft.....
> ...




namrog

It is in a trading halt, so not really issue what you say, I suspect. Do you believe the $4.45 plus a share in AOEI will be recommended or a higher amount?


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## grace (20 March 2010)

laurie said:


> I wouldn't be look forward to next week if my holding in AOE is stolen from me like QGC was
> 
> laurie




My sentiment too Laurie.  It is a sad state of affairs to see them all taken over by o/seas interests one by one.  Our government shouldn't allow it.


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## snowking (22 March 2010)

> Shell and PetroChina raised their offer to around $4.70-$4.80 per share from a previous $4.45 and Arrow will likely announce on Monday that it has accepted the proposal, The Australian said on Monday without naming its sources.




The full story is here, but it definitely still seems a little on the low side

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Arrow-Energy-accepts-improved-takeover-offer-repor-pd20100322-3RR2A?OpenDocument&src=eaih&ir=4


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## laurie (22 March 2010)

The directors are pleased to announce we have acted on behalf of shareholders and have sold out to Shell at a cheap price 

laurie

ps oh its ok to put your pants back on


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## philly (22 March 2010)

laurie said:


> The directors are pleased to announce we have acted on behalf of shareholders and have sold out to Shell at a cheap price
> 
> laurie
> 
> ps oh its ok to put your pants back on




Hi Laurie,
I agree the directors were a bit too quick to accept this offer.
Others would do well to learn the lesson here -  it may seem good that a major takes an interest in your company as it proves you have something it wants but once it has a large enough interest it can make a take over bid on its own terms and other bidders are out of the race because it has a large enough interest to thwart their bid. In the end the shareholders suffer.


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## laurie (22 March 2010)

I afraid the response I would like to give would suspend me from this great site. I lost QGC and now AOE and tell you what,Shell is grooming Arrow International assets for another T/O when Arrow gets it to the same stage as the domestic  assets 

laurie


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## bassmanpete (22 March 2010)

When I first bought into Arrow in 2004 I had visions of it becoming a $5 share. Now that it's there I feel disappointed with this offer because my expectations increased over the years.


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## snowking (22 March 2010)

laurie said:


> ps oh its ok to put your pants back on




but don't stand up too quickly, it might still hurt.

pretty evident that people weren't happy with the announcement, share price straight back to $5.10


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## TheAbyss (22 March 2010)

I must have missed something here. 

We have an increased offer of $4.70 plus a share in the yet to be formed ASX company, Dart Energy which will consist of all of the international holdings plus the other Australian CSM assets (NSW). Also Dart will be managed by the current Arrow team (a big plus in my eyes). 

If the new listed entity (Dart Energy) was valued at 55-70 cents for the assets alone (by Arrow and analysts), add to that Shell are now kicking in $45 million cash and a loan of $25 million US to get the business up and running quickly, then this offer is certainly a sweetened deal. 

Estimates so far are that Dart Energy will list at $1.00 per share minimum per share so the current deal on the table is worth $5.70 per share for Arrow holders yet it went backwards today.

Best guess is that its because speculators wanted a higher cash offer. For investors this is a better offer to my mind however it requires a bit of faith in the Arrow team to build the value of the NSW and International assets. At least we know they wont be tapping investors for cash now that Shell have thrown in the $45 million to kick it off.


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## oldblue (22 March 2010)

I think we need to accept that AOE's csg isn't the only game in town. And the brutal truth is that there weren't any other bids.

AOE is a five bagger for me at these prices so I'm happy to quit and move a chunk of the proceeds onto another table - BOW's to be specific.


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## JTLP (22 March 2010)

2 questions:

1. Laurie and others...why are you so upset about AOE getting taken over? It's not as if it has been this price before...and who's to say that things would continue on this uptrend for years? Just a question I honestly don't mean to put noses out of joint...i'd be happy if some of my co's got t/o.

2. Oldblue...why are you putting it into BOW? Perhaps for the BOW thread but are there not other CSGer's with bigger reserves etc?

Thanks!


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## laurie (22 March 2010)

TheAbyss

If you are correct in what you are saying then in theory the share price today should have gone up because investors could have factored in the International upside when they jumped on at $5.29 

laurie


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## laurie (22 March 2010)

JTLP said:


> 2 questions:
> 
> 1. Laurie and others...why are you so upset about AOE getting taken over? It's not as if it has been this price before...and who's to say that things would continue on this uptrend for years? Just a question I honestly don't mean to put noses out of joint...i'd be happy if some of my co's got t/o.
> 
> ...




Because I got on Arrow for a long term investment e.g. dividends/sp because price of oil will go up followed by gas prices and they had power stations paying a good income for Arrow what I don't know who in the background was accumulating Arrow shares for this t/o me upset never  

laurie


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## bassmanpete (22 March 2010)

JTLP, I'm not upset just, as I said, disappointed. I'm really a long term investor rather than a trader and was looking to have something grow from nothing (I bought in at around 30 cents) to something huge. So I'm happy to make a (quite considerable) profit but still a little disappointed, if you can understand that?

Having sat and thought about what I typed in the above paragraph for the last couple of minutes or so, I have to admit to a touch of excitement at the prospect of being involved with something new (the 'thrill of the chase' maybe?) and seeing if the management team can pull it off in the same way with the overseas projects as they have in Queensland.


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## laurie (22 March 2010)

bassmanpete said:


> JTLP, I'm not upset just, as I said, disappointed.  I have to admit to a touch of excitement at the prospect of being involved with something new (the 'thrill of the chase' maybe?) and seeing if the management team can pull it off in the same way with the overseas projects as they have in Queensland.




Yep I agree with you there but again Shell or someone else can come back and do the very same thing TAKEOVER it's the jump from exploration to production where Dart will be a target  

laurie


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## TheAbyss (23 March 2010)

laurie said:


> TheAbyss
> 
> If you are correct in what you are saying then in theory the share price today should have gone up because investors could have factored in the International upside when they jumped on at $5.29
> 
> laurie




Agree 100%. That is why i opened with, "I must have missed something". 

Numbers are true and most press today are saying similar to what i did yesterday so best estimate is that the Dart Energy share value is being discounted until some analysis has taken place.

Dart Energy will consist of the following and at the moment is valued at 32 cents per share on today's AOE share price (Current SP $5.02 minus cash offer of $4.70). This is wrong and time will see it rerate accordingly as the sell off is just the speculators who wanted north of $5 cash in my opinion.

The Dart component was valued at between 55 and 70 cents before the revised offer threw in $45 million start up capital and the $25 million loan facility so i am very confident the SP will head back up once the short term speculators are off the books

*Dart Energy* 

• International CSG tenements
– China, Indonesia, India and Vietnam
– Cancellation of Shell back in rights
• Australian listed shares
– BOW Energy, Apollo Gas, LNG Limited
• Farm-in rights into Apollo Gas NSW tenements
• Ongoing 10% shareholding by Shell in Arrow Energy
International Pte Ltd (“AEI”)
• Cash of $45m to be transferred from Arrow Energy
• PetroChina to facilitate approval of Dajing PSC
• Future co-operation with PetroChina planned


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## shinobi346 (23 March 2010)

from what I'm reading Arrow could still pullout of the deal but they would have to pay 1% of the transaction value.


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## oldblue (24 March 2010)

shinobi346 said:


> from what I'm reading Arrow could still pullout of the deal but they would have to pay 1% of the transaction value.




The break fee is payable "in certain circumstances".

We don't know what these are but we do know that:

- AOE board recommendation is subject to the usual " in the absence of a superior offer".

- the deal is via a scheme of arrangement, subject to approval by shareholders. ( 75% in favour with 50% of shares voting, from memory.)

- AOE isn't permitted to actively seek an alternative offer. This is normally where a break fee becomes involved.


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## laurie (24 March 2010)

shinobi346 said:


> from what I'm reading Arrow could still pullout of the deal but they would have to pay 1% of the transaction value.




If:

1.Shareholders dont approve deal and
2.FIRB says no!

wish #2 happens don't trust Chinese anymore may as well deal with the red star

laurie


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## Atlas79 (26 March 2010)

"Indigenous groups angry over gas deal".

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=1032553

No comment.


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## laurie (1 April 2010)

hmm NAB got 5% of AOE today I think BOA has around 6% and Detuche Bank has around 5% thats approx.. 16% is this a blocking move by the banks 

cheers laurie


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## shinobi346 (14 April 2010)

Some nice upside as the ACCC announces they wont be opposing the sale of parts of AOE to Shell and Petrochina today. I'm kinda two heads about this decision. On one hand its another huge gas source going overseas and on the other it gives DART a healthy balance sheet to concentrate on their remaining tenements..


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## laurie (14 April 2010)

shinobi346 said:


> Some nice upside as the ACCC announces they wont be opposing the sale of parts of AOE to Shell and Petrochina today. I'm kinda two heads about this decision. On one hand its another huge gas source going overseas and on the other it gives DART a healthy balance sheet to concentrate on their remaining tenements..




DART was going to happen regardless of the T/O?                                                                          

laurie


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## bassmanpete (6 May 2010)

Latest share price for Arrow is $4.75. That only values Dart at 5 cents. Seems like a bargain to me or are there people out there who know something I don't? Is there any possibility that the takeover won't go ahead? Any thoughts anyone?


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## oldblue (6 May 2010)

bassmanpete said:


> Latest share price for Arrow is $4.75. That only values Dart at 5 cents. Seems like a bargain to me or are there people out there who know something I don't? Is there any possibility that the takeover won't go ahead? Any thoughts anyone?





Just general uncertainty about the proposed new tax, Greek debt fears etc.

Shell have stated that there are no changes to the t/o but this, of course, doesn't rule out some future move.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-arrow-bid-shell/story-e6frg9ef-1225862602383


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## snowking (18 June 2010)

not overly impressed that Arrow have decided the offer for Dart shares will now only be 1 Dart for every 2 arrow instead of 1 for 1 as originally advised.


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## oldblue (18 June 2010)

snowking said:


> not overly impressed that Arrow have decided the offer for Dart shares will now only be 1 Dart for every 2 arrow instead of 1 for 1 as originally advised.




It doesn't matter how they divide the Dart pie. Similarly, if they gave us 10 Dart for 1 AOE it wouldn't make any difference.

One for two AOE just means that there will be less Dart shares around with twice the theoretical value, whatever that may be, than in a one for one allocation.


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## snowking (18 June 2010)

i realise that the intention is to increase the value of the Dart shares however the market doesn't seem to think so. very little movement in the sp in the last month. I would have thought an increase in the value of Dart shares would have seen Arrow's current sp increase.


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## oldblue (18 June 2010)

snowking said:


> i realise that the intention is to increase the value of the Dart shares however the market doesn't seem to think so. very little movement in the sp in the last month. I would have thought an increase in the value of Dart shares would have seen Arrow's current sp increase.




No, because you would now have to buy twice as many AOE shares to obtain the "increased value" Dart shares!

There is still some uncertainty around the takeover by Shell, particularly whether the price may be re-jigged in the light of the proposed new tax.

The other major issue is that no-one really knows how to value the Dart remnant, despite the independent expert's stab at putting a value on the total AOE enterprise.

Not surprising really that AOE's SP isn't stronger.


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