# Anyone buying or selling and why?



## numbercruncher (23 January 2008)

Hello,

Today I decided to buy

PTN - To cater to the Boomers smashed by the market and downsizing to retirement resort units or so stressed they collapse and need an aged care bed.

CCV - To cater to all the cash strapped traders flogging off their Rolexes and Gold Fillings.

CNP - Felt like Gambling 


How about you ?


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## kevosero (23 January 2008)

Hey,

PDN - Got in early for bargain prices at just over $4. Banking on a comeback in uranium sector over the next year and Paladin looks solid after reaching recent forecasts.... time will tell.


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## Buffettology (23 January 2008)

Interesting to see quite a few buying.

Its all too unpredictably scary for me at the moment, I will hold my position for now. 

Is the US in recession?  How will profit season pan out?  What will the RBA do in several days?  

The final two have to be seen before I will take a position one way on this mess.


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## roland (23 January 2008)

I was going to buy, then pulled the order. Then I was going to sell, then pulled the order. Mind you, I do each mouse click very quietly, so no one notices - just hate being laughed at!


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## Miner (23 January 2008)

I gambled yesterday when market totally sucked. 
Bought FMG at $5.  slightly earlier than total market dived down. It went down at $4.8 about after I bought.  I held tight as I knew it would be short term and price will jump out.
Today the price went up at $5.85 - I sold. Did not have the gut to wait for tomorrow. One day trade not bad return.
Of course I am not disclosing on other holdings where my investment halved in one day.
I bought some BHP yesterday and sure that it will go up in a week's time.
Wanted to buy OXR, WPL and CVN. Too scared to gamble lot in one day. So gave up. It is the brave who wins in any scary game. I was not brave enough.

Regards


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## son of baglimit (23 January 2008)

bought more of my much beloved NMS & NMSO as they got caned for no other reason than they are listed.
as another poster has pointed out, oil hasnt been effected in any way by the current mess, and with the big oilers spending budgets set for the next 3 years, O&G services companies will easily find work to cater for the need to get oil while it sits at these records levels & beyond.

one thing interests me tho - while expecting a drop of about these levels on the overall market, i was surprised by its speed - but in this modern age of everything happening now, and not waiting, its not necessarily surprising.

has the bottom been reached - who knows, but me thinks its close enough.
now wheres that cash ive been hoarding ?


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## cordelia (24 January 2008)

Miner said:


> I gambled yesterday when market totally sucked.
> Bought FMG at $5.  slightly earlier than total market dived down. It went down at $4.8 about after I bought.  I held tight as I knew it would be short term and price will jump out.
> Today the price went up at $5.85 - I sold. Did not have the gut to wait for tomorrow. One day trade not bad return.
> Of course I am not disclosing on other holdings where my investment halved in one day.
> ...



well done


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## Bill M (24 January 2008)

As a self funded retiree I am buying with all this doom and gloom around. I am buying small parcels every 2 days or so. I am buying good quality blue chip stocks that have been around for many many years and will continue to be around no matter what Mr Market wants to pay for them. I only buy the good dividend income stocks that fund my retirement and I intend to hold for very long periods of time. I rarely gamble on stocks and only buy solid blue chip companies that will be around forever.


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## ROE (24 January 2008)

All the early posties must be retiree, they get up so damn early 
I bought about 50K worth of stuff in the last 7 days ...

I continue to buy as long as I the stock I want sell at the price I want


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## bvbfan (24 January 2008)

Bought OXR, wanted to buy EQN at $4.20 but no funds cleared at the time.

OXR will be producing this year
135kt of zinc
80kt of copper 
125k oz of gold

even at current prices thats revenues of approximately 
300million in zinc + 520million in copper + 100million in gold

920 / 0.90 AUDUSD
Just over $1billion AUD in revenues from metals
Costs about 50c zinc, $1 copper, $700 gold = (150+175+90) ~ $460million AUD

Corporate costs harder to gauge but $250million (inc dividend of $170million)

Should still generate a profit of around $350million for 2008 and EPS of 21c

By my rough calcs.

Then there is the growth profile for 2009
135kt zinc
180kt copper
200k oz gold

revenues of 135mill + 1.1billion + 160mill (so revenues would jump about 50% to 1.5billion if metals stay flat on current prices)


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## Julia (24 January 2008)

I'm standing aside but fear I may regret it if the bottom has been reached.
But I just doubt it.  The basic problems haven't gone away.
Here's an article from FNArena explaining the most recent bond insurance bail out.


By Greg Peel


Two of the most talked about stocks in the US this last week are Ambac and MBIA. Ambac shares show a 52-week range of US$96.10 to US$4.50. They closed last night at US$13.70 - up about 80%. MBIA shares show a 52-week range of US$76.02 to US$6.75. They closed last night at US$16.61 - up about 32%. These are companies steeped in US financial history. Last week they nearly disappeared out the back door. They are both "monoline" insurance companies.


So what's a monoline insurance company?


The best way to begin is to explain what they are not. We are all familiar with with "multiline" insurance companies, which insure everything from our houses to our cars and businesses. Think a QBE (QBE) or Suncorp-Metway ((SUN)). Multilines benefit from a diversity of insurance policies and do not suffer from concentration in any one asset.


Monolines, on the other hand, specifically insure bonds. They may be public sector bonds or corporate bonds, and the insurer provides a guarantee on the repayment of principal and interest in the case of default. With such insurance in place, a bond issuer can improve the credit rating on the bond, perhaps raising it to AAA to thus attract widespread investment interest. Some large funds are restricted to investing only in AAA-rated paper.


Monoline insurance can also extend into structured finance (eg insuring bonds issued for the purpose of a private equity takeover) or derivative securities such as collateralised debt obligations (CDOs). Ah hah! Now we see where the problem is.


This whole credit crisis started with subprime mortgages which formed part of billions in CDOs issued in the US. The mortgages are defaulting, and as such a lot of CDOs are now as good as worthless. Companies such as Ambac and MBIA insured these instruments, which is one reason why the securities were afforded AAA ratings. With massive losses clearly staring such companies in the face, ratings agencies (which gave the CDOs AAA ratings in the first place) are now threatening to downgrade the ratings on the insurance companies themselves. If Ambac, for example, lost its AAA rating, then any security Ambac insured will also lose its AAA rating. This would mean a lot of funds holding those securities would be forced to sell as they are not allowed to hold anything less.


While it might sound like just another fallout from the CDO market - a market which has already seen massive write-downs from all major investment houses in the US and elsewhere - the real problem lies in the fact that all securities insured by Ambac would be downgraded were Ambac itself to be downgraded. And this includes in excess of a couple of trillion US dollars worth of municipal bonds. Municipal bonds are issued by the likes of what we'd call "local councils" in Australia, and represent a truly enormous proportion of the US (and global) fixed interest investment market.


See the bigger problem?


Over the past few months FNArena has been liberally referring to a favourite metaphor as coined by Charles Gave of GaveKal. It involves "dynamite fishing". First little dead fish rise to the surface, and then some bigger dead fish. But eventually, up pops a whale. Once the whale surfaces, a shift in monetary policy can be expected.


In Britain, the whale was Northern Rock. The demise of this significant mortgage provider forced the Bank of England to guarantee all British bank deposits. While the US has seen some devastating collapses in institutions such as Citigroup, to date there has been no real whale - nothing big actually dead in the water. GaveKal wonders however, whether monoline insurers may well be that whale. The shift in monetary policy was the emergency 75 point rate cut from the Fed.


The point of a shift in monetary policy is that it is what should trigger the rebound, or at least stabilisation. Throughout the credit crisis the Fed has been roundly criticised for being "behind the curve". That is, it has acted reactively and not proactively, constantly doing too little too late and being forced to do more. Will the market see this latest move as being sufficient?


Well unfortunately the US Fed futures market is still pricing in a 74% probability of another 50 point rate cut next as quickly as next week (the scheduled meeting). This might mean the real whale is yet to actually surface. Could it come from Europe? The ECB is yet to respond to anything.


But along with monetary action we have also seen fiscal action, and now likely regulatory action. The Bush Administration is negotiating with Congress for a US$150bn "bail-out" of the US consumer through tax relief. This is aimed at addressing recession fears. And then last night we learnt that banks and brokers had got together with the New York state insurance regulator with regards to the crisis in monoline insurers.. It's early days, but no doubt some sort of rescue package will emerge. Wall Street bounced hard on this news last night. is that enough to signal stability?


''A kind of bailout supported by monetary authorities or governments is the only chance for the industry to survive,'' said Jochen Felsenheimer, the Munich-based head of credit derivatives research at UniCredit, Italy's biggest bank. ''This bailout seems to be highly likely given the important role of bond insurers in the current market environment.'' (Bloomberg)


The New York insurance regulator is currently going about drafting new legislation that will change the nature of bond insurance activities in the future. However, we still have the present to deal with. Ratings agency Fitch has already stripped Ambac of its AAA rating, while both S&P and Moody's have put both Ambac and MBIA under review. Another insurer - ACA Capital Holdings - has managed to negotiate a stay of execution - avoiding immediate delinquency proceedings from its state regulator to allow time to unwind US$60bn of credit default swaps it can't pay, Bloomberg reports.


Ah yes - credit default swaps. Another supposedly "new" problem that FNArena was warning about as long ago as October. These are contracts which "swap out" the sort of default risk monolines are insuring against. In many cases, there are more default swaps in the market over certain bonds than there are bonds. In other words, another disastrous form of leverage.


At present, credit default swap transactions are indicating both Ambac and MBIA themselves have more than a 60% chance of defaulting. If default is the case, the New York Fed would be forced to step in. Another forced monetary response to save the whales.






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## adobee (24 January 2008)

Bought Linq resource fund cause i saw them pull out of a few large positions just before the crash in stocks like AGO .. I am figuring they would have had spare cash when they needed it to make some good money.. I could be totally wrong but am taking a punt.


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## Miner (25 January 2008)

ROE said:


> All the early posties must be retiree, they get up so damn early
> I bought about 50K worth of stuff in the last 7 days ...
> 
> I continue to buy as long as I the stock I want sell at the price I want




what about those (like me) who post mails at very late night ? Retirees or unemployable  
Some times time you see could be misleading depending on east or west of the country you are in!!


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## So_Cynical (25 January 2008)

Buying...at last

Had no money until today...ive broadly missed the bottoms on the blue chips but theres still some 
bottoms in the small caps to get on...and lots of value everywhere.

Topped up my SBS SUB-SAHARA RESOURCES, holding to bring down my average entry price....got in at todays low too.

Will have some blueish chip buy orders in for tomorrow...prob wont get filled 
with the FTSE up 4.5% at the moment.

Hate hate hate not having money at the/a bottom.


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## kpas (25 January 2008)

Buying BRM today based on my belief that it was being sold down on US sentiment alone.

Two independant brokers value it at well over 2x its current SP - I think it is a safe bet.

Have traded it 3 or 4x now successfully, it's weakness and it's strength is very little tradable stock available.

It moves up fast, and it moves down just as quickly.


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## Ken (25 January 2008)

I sold out of all the blue chippers that I loaded up on.

But I basically left profit in the stocks from the trades.

NAB

BNB

MQG

OXR

ZFX

This is a strategy I use when the market falls and there is a quick bounce, but I wanted some long term investments to remain.

The parcels are only small, but from small things, big things grow so they say.


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## adobee (25 January 2008)

I bought CVN this morning.. I thought it was a good stock and buy when I bought some at close to 70c three weeks ago so at 49c I will really get into it. The directors seem to think its a good buy at the moment as do Hartleys..


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