# A bounce tonight?



## nizar (5 March 2007)

Now even corrections have up-days.
Just that the highs will be lower than the previous highs.

Does any1 think that 2nite may be a bounce (up-day) in the US markets?
eg. using Gann, Elliot, other technical analyses.

Thoughts/charts would be much appreciated.


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## happytrader (5 March 2007)

Hi Nizar

Its hard to say. The market can lose confidence and hold a grudge for quite awhile. One would be looking for strong leadership or consensus in the form of overwhelming volume before entering long otherwise you are looking at half-hearted commitment which is a good exit strategy if you are long.

Cheers
Happytrader


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## pacer (5 March 2007)

Red or Black........you'll get the same answer at a casino.


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## ducati916 (5 March 2007)

No chance, Wall St is going to be a blood bath tomorrow.
The Yen is still trading higher, and no weakness in sight at the moment.
The US has gone "Carry Trade" mad.

People who have never heard of it before last week are suddenly very aware of it's existence now.

jog on
d998


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## professor_frink (5 March 2007)

nizar said:
			
		

> Now even corrections have up-days.
> Just that the highs will be lower than the previous highs.
> 
> Does any1 think that 2nite may be a bounce (up-day) in the US markets?
> ...



Doesn't look likely at this stage. The only thing I have that's green at the moment is the Yen.
Nikkei -2%
HSI -2%
H-shares -3%
SPI just went below 5700 as I type.
And the DOW futs are dn 57, with a bloody long time to go before the U.S opens.
There will have to be a pretty spectacular rally this arvo leading up to the European open for the negativity to be gone before the U.S open.


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## constable (5 March 2007)

If the yen keeps going up there will be some investors "bouncing" off footpaths!


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## ducati916 (5 March 2007)

constable said:
			
		

> If the yen keeps going up there will be some investors "bouncing" off footpaths!




Very good.

jog on
d998


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## happytown (5 March 2007)

as someone once lyricised,

it's the end of the world as we know it ...








... and I feel fine

cheers


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## Kimosabi (5 March 2007)

happytown said:
			
		

> as someone once lyricised,
> 
> it's the end of the world as we know it ...
> 
> ...




Run for the hills   aaaarrrrrgggggghhhhh


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## Bronte (5 March 2007)

constable said:
			
		

> If the yen keeps going up there will be some investors "bouncing" off footpaths!



That is very good constable


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## Magdoran (5 March 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> No chance, Wall St is going to be a blood bath tomorrow.
> The Yen is still trading higher, and no weakness in sight at the moment.
> The US has gone "Carry Trade" mad.
> 
> ...



Fully agree.


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## tech/a (5 March 2007)

Must say I am suprised that all of those who are proficient in GANN and ELLIOT who are here haven't given any commentary on how the analysis is panning out.

From what I understand there should be both time and price points now clearly definable within the analysis codes.

*Anyone like to run us through the analysis and price and time points?*

I understand that the analysis is dynamic and if X doesnt happen then it will mean Y is more likely.

No problem thats the nature of the beast.

Wave
Bronte (You teach it)
Moggie(So do you I believe).
Anyone.

Happy to have a go myself but I'm no expert---understanding yes expert---nah.


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## Sean K (5 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Must say I am suprised that all of those who are proficient in GANN and ELLIOT who are here haven't given any commentary on how the analysis is panning out.
> 
> From what I understand there should be both time and price points now clearly definable within the analysis codes.
> 
> ...



I've been trying to combine EW with fib and chart support lines, and I get a bounce at 5650 ish, up to 5800 ish, and then down to 5450 ish. A B C. Then back up. No time analysis. This is pretty basic stuff. I don't follow the star sign articles in the newspaper. But I'm no expert either. Anyone who says they are, are having a lend of themselves. But, they're probably more 'expert' than me of course.


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## nizar (5 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> I've been trying to combine EW with fib and chart support lines, and I get a bounce at 5650 ish, up to 5800 ish, and then down to 5450 ish. A B C. Then back up. No time analysis. This is pretty basic stuff. I don't follow the star sign articles in the newspaper. But I'm no expert either. Anyone who says they are, are having a lend of themselves. But, they're probably more 'expert' than me of course.




Thanks Kennas.
And every1 for your responses.


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## Kauri (5 March 2007)

She has already bounced once today, straight out of a bargain hunters channell...


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## ducati916 (5 March 2007)

*tech/a*

I'll give you the *fundamental wave count*.

The tide is going out, soon we'll see who's being swimming naked!

jog on
d998


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## clowboy (5 March 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> No chance, Wall St is going to be a blood bath tomorrow.
> The Yen is still trading higher, and no weakness in sight at the moment.
> The US has gone "Carry Trade" mad.
> 
> ...




Ducati,

Im sure you go over this time and time again, but can you give a very brief summary of "carry trade" or a link to a previous explanation?

Thanx


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## Magdoran (5 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Must say I am suprised that all of those who are proficient in GANN and ELLIOT who are here haven't given any commentary on how the analysis is panning out.
> 
> From what I understand there should be both time and price points now clearly definable within the analysis codes.
> 
> ...



Just don’t have time…

On support now… intraday


Mag


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## Magdoran (5 March 2007)

Trying to break down... this'll be fun!


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## Magdoran (5 March 2007)

Broke through...


Hmmm this is a panic move...


Mag


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## ducati916 (5 March 2007)

clowboy said:
			
		

> Ducati,
> 
> Im sure you go over this time and time again, but can you give a very brief summary of "carry trade" or a link to a previous explanation?
> 
> Thanx




The Bank of Japan has had their discount rate @ 0.00% for a number of years, it then rose to 0.025% last year sometime [or year before] and rose to 0.05% in the last 3 weeks.

Therefore you can borrow Yen @ 0.00% interest and invest it somewhere else for an arbitrage return.

Hence currencies like the NZ$ went through the roof due to NZ higher interest rates.

Commodities futures would normally trade in backwardation, thus you could roll the contracts for a positive yield. Hence massive speculation into commodity markets forcing them into manic bulls. So much so, they went contango.

The more aggressive would place the funds in equity markets, China, India, ASX, anywhere that had a bullmarket.

So to borrow Yen, in essence you *sell Yen short*
Now that Yen is rising, the spread is closing on other currencies, thus the profit is reducing.

To keep the Yen *undervalued* constant selling and reinvestment was required..that's finished, and in addition the traders in existing positions are exiting, and buying Yen to close their *short position*

No selling, and huge buying, unwinding some 10yrs worth of positions.
Those that went into the futures markets before they went contango, pulled out prior, thus the falling commodity prices.

Now we are seeing the equity portion fall out of bed.
The next will be Junk bonds, then Treasuries.

The Treasury market will be balanced by the *Flight to Safety* so probably won't be as brutal, unless the Fed starts to ease.

If they ease, then you'll see more unwinding out of Treasuries as well.

That's more or less the basic gist.
jog on
d998


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## Sean K (5 March 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Broke through...
> 
> Hmmm this is a panic move...
> 
> Mag



I agree. I've even thought about selling my long positions the past few minutes, but I went through them all in detail to remember why I was holding them, and the reasons are all still there. Nothing has changed except market psychology. Amazing beast the market. The heard is stampeeding to the cliffs edge. The front runners seem to be jumping off...


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## Magdoran (5 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Must say I am suprised that all of those who are proficient in GANN and ELLIOT who are here haven't given any commentary on how the analysis is panning out.
> 
> From what I understand there should be both time and price points now clearly definable within the analysis codes.
> 
> ...



Sorry Daffy,


The problem is it is difficult to explain the intricacies of a system in short hand, certainly on the fly like this when I’m trying to trade, discussing strategies, and responding to a range of questions from different quarters – hence the quality of my work won’t be great.  I literally have Gigs of snap shots of charts and projections with written commentary… I’m not going to post that up, ASF would be full of my ravings (even more than usual!  Hahaha!).

The key dates I’ve made clear all along, with the proviso that the current pattern supports the probability that the cycle into the high is the same as the one on the way down.  Now this is not a given.  If it changes to what was a minor cycle, the dates and inflexions all change.  This effects the price targets too…  Hence I really need to see what the first counter tend out of this drive down does.

But Key dates currently are: 14 March, 01 April, 13 April, 31 May, and 18 July could be the completion of the move (could extend into 23 August or beyond however).  But this is way too premature without the requisite confirmation, especially from the first counter trend (assuming this is a bear campaign).

Anyway, it’s almost professional hour… things to do!


Mag


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## nizar (5 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> I agree. I've even thought about selling my long positions the past few minutes, but I went through them all in detail to remember why I was holding them, and the reasons are all still there. Nothing has changed except market psychology. Amazing beast the market. The heard is stampeeding to the cliffs edge. The front runners seem to be jumping off...




Yep heard mentality has kicked in.
You know what they say: Bulls make money, bears make money, and sheep get slaughtered.

Mag i hope you made good money from this move down as you seem to be enjoying yourself. For me, at least i didnt lose (anymore)


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## nizar (5 March 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Anyway, it’s almost professional hour… things to do!



Haha good call


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## Kauri (5 March 2007)

We are not orphans..


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## MichaelD (5 March 2007)

If I were a punter, I'd punt on a blow-off bottom tomorrow on the open by the way the day looks to be closing - looks like dropping through intraday support big time for the close (as at 3pm).

Fear might start turning into despair tomorrow.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (5 March 2007)

nizar said:
			
		

> You know what they say: Bulls make money, bears make money, and sheep get slaughtered.




Nizar that sounds like my Elder CD.


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## nizar (5 March 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Nizar that sounds like my Elder CD.




LOL yeh top book that was.


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## Techbuy (5 March 2007)

Watching the days trading a lot of the shares have leveled from the low of the day. 

It's only a small movement but some have even gone up, just a little $.001 but the downwards spiral from this morning seems to have eased as we head towards the close.
Tomorrow?? where is my crystal ball?
What the afterhours traders will do..  Dump? consolidate? (buy more? MMM unlikely!!)


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## Kauri (5 March 2007)

Is this going to become valid support or is it the _professionals_ doing a bit of intraday short covering??


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## nizar (5 March 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Is this going to become valid support or is it the _professionals_ doing a bit of intraday short covering??




I think the latter.
After 5700 broke it was an easy call to short. Easy money. 40pts.


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## Magdoran (5 March 2007)

nizar said:
			
		

> Haha good call



Sheesh, exhausted now.  What a mad day…


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## professor_frink (5 March 2007)

Nikkei is getting close to 16700, down over 500 today.
Dow futures are down over 100 already  

Don't think tonight is going to be pretty at all.


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## The Mint Man (5 March 2007)

constable said:
			
		

> If the yen keeps going up there will be some investors "bouncing" off footpaths!



Also known as a 'dead investor bounce'  

Anyway,
I know alot of people that are waiting for.... shall I say (for need of a better word) 'magic numbers' to be reached before they pile their money back into the market. A few I have spoke to are saying around a 10% correction then games on... well, almost there fellas!
these people know who they are  

cheers


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## justjohn (5 March 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> Also known as a 'dead investor bounce'
> 
> Anyway,
> I know alot of people that are waiting for.... shall I say (for need of a better word) 'magic numbers' to be reached before they pile their money back into the market. A few I have spoke to are saying around a 10% correction then games on... well, almost there fellas!
> ...



These cashed-up bottom pickers must be drooling after today and at tomorrows prospects, ah Mint :


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## Techbuy (6 March 2007)

This was at 11:30 this morning:
as well as a lot more green in the price ranges.


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## PhoenixXx (6 March 2007)

So does this mean correction has finished?


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## Sean K (6 March 2007)

PhoenixXx said:
			
		

> So does this mean correction has finished?



6% could be just a correction, but 8% would confirm it. The past 'corrections' have lasted 3 to 6 weeks before steadying and/or heading higher, so we might have a couple more to go. This could be one of the dead cats....


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## Kauri (6 March 2007)

We dropped I think the best part of 2% yesterday anticipating more O/S carnage, overnight the S+P 500 only went down about 1%, so maybe we are just re-aligning with them? If so, todays/tonights action in other major markets may dictate whether we have a genuine short-term bounce or whatever???


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## Bush Trader (6 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> 6% could be just a correction, but 8% would confirm it. The past 'corrections' have lasted 3 to 6 weeks before steadying and/or heading higher, so we might have a couple more to go. This could be one of the dead cats....




I’m with the Dead Cat Theory, however with shedding so much so quickly the market could rally over a number of days especially if we see Asia, Europe, and the US pick up over the next 16 hours.  All arrows point to 5400 ish (another 3.5%).  Sorry to sound like a bear, I am a bull at heart.

Cheers


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## Dr Doom (6 March 2007)

Bush Trader said:
			
		

> Sorry to sound like a bear, I am a bull at heart.
> 
> Cheers




Call it as you see it Bush Trader, no need to apologize.
I'm seeing a dead cat bounce, bull trap, pump & dump day today, call it what you will. A double top as we speak, er type  

The US market eg DOW had a similar pattern develope before fading into the close this morning. I can see more downward momentum this week at least with crucial announcements on the US economy this week. It's funny how these things all seem to align. Anyhow, wait to see if this uptick today has legs, but I doubt it?


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## >Apocalypto< (6 March 2007)

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Call it as you see it Bush Trader, no need to apologize.
> I'm seeing a dead cat bounce, bull trap, pump & dump day today, call it what you will. A double top as we speak, er type
> 
> The US market eg DOW had a similar pattern develope before fading into the close this morning. I can see more downward momentum this week at least with crucial announcements on the US economy this week. It's funny how these things all seem to align. Anyhow, wait to see if this uptick today has legs, but I doubt it?




Agree with you DR this looks like a sucker rally.

waiting for a bottom and new break out on the weekly chart before I make any moves on the long side.


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## nizar (6 March 2007)

Even corrections have updays.
Check previous corrections.


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## Dr Doom (6 March 2007)

Here we go - could be start of the dumping???


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## PhoenixXx (6 March 2007)

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Here we go - could be start of the dumping???



I'm expecting the worst now.


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## Teddy Bear (6 March 2007)

Dr Doom & Pheonixxx, 
- 'could be the start of the dumping', Dr D
- 'I'm expecting the worst' - Phoenixxx

Will the dumping be fast and furious over the short term (next day or two) or happen over the next few weeks.  If you could expand on the roll out of the possible events that will happen in this type of market I would appreciate your experienced views as I am but just a toddler in the play school of trading.  Pls anyone else who wishes to add to this would be good.
Tks
TB


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## PhoenixXx (7 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> 6% could be just a correction, but 8% would confirm it...



I agree, yesterday was a significant bounce, don't wanna see the index slump again today, but be prepared


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## KIWIKARLOS (7 March 2007)

New Highs here we come. 

US up over 1.5% and most asian indices up around 2%. Dead Cat bounce before the end of world crash    I think not.

I'm thinking this will be a minor correction and this oscillation recently is mearly a leveling out.

I agree there are underlying problems with some major economies, namely the US and China. But there is also alot of strength, these problems will show their effects later this year unless something can be done to avoid it.

Who knows maybe the US has a plan to comabt these ARM's , declining housing market etc. 

I wonder what the next bubble will be :


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## nizar (7 March 2007)

KIWIKARLOS said:
			
		

> I'm thinking this will be a minor correction and this oscillation recently is mearly a leveling out.




Minor correction?
Most corrections take at least 3-4 weeks to play out and lose 8-10%.

This has lasted a week and the markets lost about 6%.

History tells us a bit more to go.

But im on the sidelines and id love to be wrong.


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## Sean K (7 March 2007)

KIWIKARLOS said:
			
		

> New Highs here we come.
> 
> US up over 1.5% and most asian indices up around 2%. Dead Cat bounce before the end of world crash    I think not.



I have the perception the average ASF member has factored in a correction, and then resumption of the bull. There are some more bearish, but I don't think world crash is a concensus thought. 

Looks like we could have another good day today, but I doubt that the skittishness of world investors has disappeared overnight. Another excuse to take profits might appear in the comming days. I don't think it will take much.


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## nizar (7 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> I have the perception the average ASF member has factored in a correction, and then resumption of the bull. There are some more bearish, but I don't think world crash is a concensus thought.
> 
> Looks like we could have another good day today, but I doubt that the skittishness of world investors has disappeared overnight. Another excuse to take profits might appear in the comming days. I don't think it will take much.




If i had was still long some stocks i would take profits today.
In my opinion.


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## theasxgorilla (7 March 2007)

Does anybody need more proof than yesterday and last night that it is not simply a given that the Aust market always follows the US?


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## rico01 (7 March 2007)

This dead cat sure has some bounce!!
  But i,m sure its dead


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## Struzball (7 March 2007)

rico01 said:
			
		

> This dead cat sure has some bounce!!
> But i,m sure its dead




cats have 9 lives....


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## Uncle Festivus (7 March 2007)

Hi all,
This is probably a bit premature, but does this count as a 50% retracement?. The chart is from a cfd providers (IG) synthetic values but are pretty close to real market XJO?.


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