# TFE - Territory Iron



## noirua (4 August 2006)

Information on Territory Iron can be located at: http://www.territoryiron.com.au

TFE have an interesting 45 Km line of strike in the Northern Territory about 190 Km South East of Darwin and excellent rail access via the Adelaide to Darwin Rail Linc. 4 million tonnes of reserves and 9 million tonnes of resource is considerably more upbeat than last year.

The company MD, Mr Doug Stewart gives the Fourth Quarter Report:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/TFE/1145/12749


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## noirua (20 September 2006)

Mixed results from the Frances Creek Project - 33 holes drilled since July - has caused a sideways movement in the share price for the last 3 months, following a dip just before that. The shares may well continue under pressure, though the longer term prospects for Frances Creek may renew interest early next year.


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## noirua (25 November 2006)

TFE are now at 31 cents after another upgrade of iron ore at Frances Creek. Early days, but the clouds may be drifting away.


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## noirua (6 December 2006)

Yes, yes, yes, the clouds are drifting away on this iron ore minnow and up to 35.5 cents this morning with the years high of 45 cents just within sight.


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## jollyfrog (6 December 2006)

Hey Noriua, do you follow Fat Prophets? they had a buy recomendation on this its looking VERY promising.


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## noirua (7 December 2006)

jollyfrog said:
			
		

> Hey Noriua, do you follow Fat Prophets? they had a buy recomendation on this its looking VERY promising.




I've been following this one since buying in early August and it is one of those stocks that refused to go up despite upbeat news. I have to be a bit careful and not get carried away as the upside may not be as sudden as JMS or as solid as FLX. Worth a flutter at these levels though.


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## noirua (7 February 2007)

NOW IN TRADING HALT, due share placement.   TFE have moved on up to 39 cents in the last few months and time to look more closely at them.


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## imajica (22 February 2007)

I just stumbled on this one - going into production soon - its forecast EPS should in the realm of 15-20 cents - even after the recent share issue

market cap still only 50 million

on a conservative P/E of 8 we have a share price between $1.20-$1.60

was thinking of buying a small parcel tomorrow - am I missing something here or is this one a 'no-brainer' ? (fundamentally speaking)


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## happytown (22 February 2007)

apparently it has been a fat prophets pick for some time

spent a while in the 27 - 35c range until recent share placement at 50c

the nt govt is funding most of the port infrastructure upgrade required with tfe paying them back at, if i remember correctly, $1/t when up and going

cheers


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## happytown (22 February 2007)

fat prophets from approx *07/06* - i am not a fat prophets subscriber nor holder of tfe:

"Territory has provided encouraging results from its current exploration program at its francis creek iron ore deposit in the northern territory, with a substantial upgrade in its iron ore resource inventory.

The first iron ore production at frances creek is anticipated in early 2007 and we believe january's all time high share price of 47.5c will be reached again.

Recent drilling on the frances creek iron ore project in the norhern territory suggets a substantial resource upgrade is likely in the near future. The company has completed more than 6200m of drilling.

Elsewhere in the area, drilling between the old abandoned helene 2 and 3 pits has intersected high quality hematite ore up to 18m thick, with excellent potential for resource upgrades.

Regional exploration work is also promising, with high resolution magnetic surveying during may over the northern tennements due to be processed shortly. This should provide additional drilling targets.

Recently, the northern territory governement announced that it would partially fund port infrastructure in darwin to assist with the development of the francis creek iron ore project.

The francis creek project is, therefore, firmly on track to produce ore through a mix of lump and fines through a simple crush and screening process.

Francis creek hosts at least 35km of prosective iron ore strike length and comntains 55 known iron ore deposits.

A number of changes over the past 30 years have made the revival of this iron ore field viable.

We rate territory iron as an ideal iron ore player.

The shallow nature of the francis creek deposit and its favourable metallurgy, combined with its access to rail and port infrastructure are key attractions."

cheers


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## imajica (22 February 2007)

thanks for the info 

I'm convinced - am going to purchase a small parcel tomorrow


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## noirua (22 February 2007)

Despite a fall to 53.5 cents today, down 3.5 cents, TFE have been quite strong and appear to show a breakout on the 12 month chart.


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## noirua (23 February 2007)

Trading at 54 cents, I think we can say we have a breakout on the TFE chart. Well up on the 40 cents and looking to remain so. Good Luck to those who jumped on board. Fun times ahead.


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## imajica (23 February 2007)

with the placement of 60 million shares at 50 cents  - this should give investors confidence that there is no way the big players would pay 35% above the previous average price unless they thought it was a screaming buy - DYOR


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## imajica (23 February 2007)

I finally bought in!  fundamentals are rock solid


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## imajica (26 February 2007)

up to 55 cents - will slowly creep up as we near production


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## noirua (26 February 2007)

imajica said:
			
		

> up to 55 cents - will slowly creep up as we near production




Yes indeed, all going well and that 60 cent target could be achieved very shortly, imho.


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## imajica (28 February 2007)

announcement out today

Marketing rights transfer to Noble Group

mining to commence shortly


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## imajica (28 February 2007)

recovered from 48 cent low now back to 53 cents and climbing  

may reach the green today


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## imajica (5 March 2007)

another member on HC crunched the numbers and came up with this:


135 million Shares 
60 million shares (recent capital raised to Crawley)
Total = 195 million shares
Market Cap = 195M x 0.49c 
= $95.55 Million

2007 Production Target is 1.5 Mtpa 
Iron Ore Price = $69/tonne USD
Revenue = 1500000 x 69 
= $103.5 Million USD
= $131.85 Million AUD

No more capex, the last capital raised is enough to fund the company right into Production.

I cant find the estimated operating cost for TFE but lets be very conservative and say its half the revenue. 

Thats $66 Million EBITDA
NPAT should be around $46.2 Million
(thats nearly half the market cap!)

1) MOU in place with China
2) Production in March
3) Exporting in August 
4) Cash flow report out in October

Some people are probably nervous about buying after the recent rise in share price. But looking at the stock fundalmentals, this stock should hit $1 by October. 

DYOR!


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## noirua (5 March 2007)

imajica said:
			
		

> another member on HC crunched the numbers and came up with this:
> 
> 
> 135 million Shares
> ...




Hi, Not being able to find the operating costs does seem to throw a spanner into the works of the crunched numbers. Cost of development of a mine and purchase of rolling stock, may well exceed all the profits in the first year. Royalties have to be paid to Arafura Resources of $1.30 Lump and $1.00 Fines, per tonne.
It also depends on the results of increasing the inferred resource that is not all that much as yet.


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## noirua (5 March 2007)

I'm now out of TFE as I continue to reduce my holdings in favour of cash. Company looks good, hope you all make a fortune. Good Luck


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## robert toms (5 March 2007)

One thing that concerns me about this one is unseasonal or excessive rainfall.I note that OMH ,mining closer to Tennant Creek had production slowed due to unusually heavy rain in December.I see that there has been very heavy rainfall around Katherine lately.
Only a thought,I do not know enough about the site of their mine....else it looks OK.
My concerns are probably unfounded


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## imajica (7 March 2007)

Territory Iron finalises agreement with NLC and Traditional Owners



> Territory Iron finalises agreement with NLC and Traditional Owners
> Northern Territory iron ore company Territory Iron (ASX:TFE) has struck an agreement with the traditional owners of the area covering the company’s Frances Creek operations in the Northern Territory. The Parties have agreed between them in relation to the grant of mining interests and development of the Frances Creek iron ore project.
> The iron ore project comprises 13 tenements and is located approximately 28 km north of the regional town of Pine Creek on the Stuart Highway, 190 km south of Darwin.
> The Northern Land Council assisted with the structure of the agreement whereby the traditional owners will receive a royalty and Territory Iron will assist with training and mentoring indigenous men and women who may seek employment at the operations.
> ...


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## imajica (13 March 2007)

at 4.20pm a special block cross trade(spxt)  went through for 18,550,000 shares    thats over 9 million bucks worth of shares - any ideas guys?  whats going on?

is it instos buying up a large stake?


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## noirua (13 March 2007)

imajica said:
			
		

> at 4.20pm a special block cross trade(spxt)  went through for 18,550,000 shares    thats over 9 million bucks worth of shares - any ideas guys?  whats going on?
> 
> is it instos buying up a large stake?




Hi, This is thought to be a sale of shares by OM Holdings, a diversified minerals company with Manganese interests and had by law to be put through the ASX. The guess is that Crawley Resources MAY have picked up the stock.


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## imajica (15 March 2007)

new substantial share holder notice

can't open it up at the moment for some reason

could someone have a go at viewing it

thanks


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## imajica (15 March 2007)

Westoz investment Company purchases 10 million TFE shares - nice vote of confidence from the instos!!!!!!!!


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## imajica (27 March 2007)

up 10% this morning on good volume - it appears the market likes the appointment of the new director


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## mhtrieu (27 March 2007)

noirua said:


> Hi, Not being able to find the operating costs does seem to throw a spanner into the works of the crunched numbers. Cost of development of a mine and purchase of rolling stock, may well exceed all the profits in the first year. Royalties have to be paid to Arafura Resources of $1.30 Lump and $1.00 Fines, per tonne.
> It also depends on the results of increasing the inferred resource that is not all that much as yet.




Noirua, I was the one that published those numbers on HC. 

1. Read the announcement carefully next time. The recent $30 Million capital raising was enough to fully fund them into production and accelerate exploration.

2. Why would Mr Kiernan spend $30million to buy TFE shares at a 35% premium if the operating cost was going to exceed all profits? I have not seen many cap-raising that involved a company paying a 35% premium. Most of the time it has been the average shares value over a month or less. From the things ive read on TFE, nothing indicates that they will have a huge operating cost. You find their capex into production was fairly low due to the existing infrastructure implace from previous miners. 

3. Well some of the iron come from Arafura tenements, so its only right to pay some royalties to Arafura. But a royalty of $1-$1.3 per tone is very little compared to the price of Iron - $65USD/tonne. Price of iron has risen this year, surely enough to cover the royalties.

4. TFE resource is definitely a problem. Management have plans to spend money on exploration every year to help increase resources/reserves. TFE have a 40km line of strike in Frances Creek, with most parts of the Frances Creek Tenements unexplored. *Check the maps* There is much potential for TFE to increase resources/reserves. I'd rather they get into production now then do a another capital raising to increase additional resources. If TFE had the resources, its market cap would have been much greater then $95 million dollars. This has left TFE under the radar until recently.

I'm surprised you sold out on TFE who is so close to production and have been releasing postive news for the last several months. I guess some people are just impatient and prefer to go for the more risky stocks with the potential of becoming a multibagger within a week (refering to UXA).
I'm still new to the stock market. TFE will be my first multi-bagger by May.


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## imajica (28 March 2007)

a bit of profit taking this morning was to be expected as daytraders exited their positions - buy side building this afternoon - we could be in for a late run - with an agressive drilling program in place for 2007 and experienced management in place TFE has the fundamentals to perform well


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## imajica (28 March 2007)

back to yesterdays close price - a number of buyers just took out a quarter of a million at 62 cents - we could be in for an arvo run


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## Sean K (29 March 2007)

Seems to have been significantly rerated the past 4 months. Overbought on stochastics, but that's not necessarily going to stop it atm. Not much else to tell....


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## mhtrieu (29 March 2007)

kennas said:


> Seems to have been significantly rerated the past 4 months. Overbought on stochastics, but that's not necessarily going to stop it atm. Not much else to tell....




I expect a little retrace before it heads back up. Fundalments are intact. Refer to my earlier post. Someones pasted the numbers i crunched up a while back. 

If you dont trust my FA, let me give you an example. 

MtGibson had a 1 Mtpa operation in 2006, last half year report states they made a net profit after tax of $53.4 Million for 2006.

TFE production rate is at 1 Mtpa in the first year. 
TFE market cap is 128.7 Million @ 66c. 

Compare the net profit after tax with the TFE market cap. Thats quite a lot of profit. I dont pick stocks based on charts. $$$ is everything. 

With production on track, exploration underway to increase resources and plans to further increase production rate this stock will definitely reach $1 sometime this year. You just have to be patient. I brought in at 35c and dont intend to sell with all the upside no matter how the charts read. 

DYOR.


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