# Is lead the next hot commodity?



## ta2693 (4 July 2007)

I just read a industry report, it said lead will have 50000 ton shortage in 2007.
I think that may make lead the next hot commodity.
Does anyone know what company is ASX has world class lead deposit. What company has world class deposit of lead?
Thank you.


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## BREND (4 July 2007)

ta2693 said:


> I just read a industry report, it said lead will have 50000 ton shortage in 2007.
> I think that may make lead the next hot commodity.
> Does anyone know what company is ASX has world class lead deposit. What company has world class deposit of lead?
> Thank you.




Yes, Lead is a good commodity to buy:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7430

Made some profit from Lead recently:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/07/lead-trade-558-profit-in-3-days-time.html


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## ta2693 (4 July 2007)

Thank you Brend. But I have no experience in trading commodity. It is a new area for me. If there is some share exposed to lead,I am willing to have a go.

By the way, what broker are you using to trade commodity?


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## acooper (4 July 2007)

I have heard Nickle is the way to go. Not sure about Lead


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## drasicjazz (4 July 2007)

nickle is on the way back acooper 
have a look here
http://www.basemetals.com/Nickel/

T2693 i did read somewhere thathte chineaseare very keen on batteries ...
like yourself i ve been looking for a leadstock,
 CBH maybe?
cheers


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## Damuzzdu (4 July 2007)

ta2693 said:


> I just read a industry report, it said lead will have 50000 ton shortage in 2007.
> I think that may make lead the next hot commodity.
> Does anyone know what company is ASX has world class lead deposit. What company has world class deposit of lead?
> Thank you.




The first company that comes to mind is ZFX (zinifex) mines lead from century (Nth Qld) and Rosebery (Tas). LY 2005/06 production of was 107.6 Mt Contained lead.

The price of lead is now higher than Aluminium eek.

Just goes to show, last year Greg Gailey (Former MD/CEO) said in ZFX annual that they (ZFX) expect the price of lead to fall. That was when Pb was around $US0.60c/lb....tonite US$1.29c/lb. The way it is rocketing up it might even pass Zn !!!!

Cheers
Muzz


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## ozambersand (4 July 2007)

I know it's not a lead miner, but Sims Metal's price is very closely tied to lead as it is a major recycler of it. Bit pricy at the moment now, but I think it will just keep on growing.


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## ta2693 (4 July 2007)

Is any small company exposed to Lead which the market cap is below 50m.
ZFX, SGM CBH is just too big for me. It is hard to believe these elephants could be multibagger.


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## BREND (5 July 2007)

Pure Lead miners are usually not very profitable companies. The best way to tap on rising lead price is to buy Lead futures. Margin is only USD4500, this metal is affordable to most people.


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## mick2006 (5 July 2007)

It is only an exploration company but AZS has had some really exciting Zinc/Lead/Silver results from its prospects in Mexico.

With more results due shortly.

Also very nice writeup in todays Australian Daily Assay Column


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...005200,00.html


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## ormond (5 July 2007)

PDZ is a small cap company that has reported very high lead&zinc grades over 1.1km of a possible 10 km strike. more drilling results are due soon and a new drilling programme about to start! dyor


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## GREENS (5 July 2007)

Think Lead might take over Zinc soon lol…In all seriousness maybe its not a laughing matter the way lead is trading at the moment, no matter how other metals are performing it just keeps going up. Zinc on the other hand is stuck in a trading range largely between $1.60/lb -$1.75/lb and for the majority of the time trading towards the lower end of this range.

Most companies that mine Zn also mine considerable quantities of lead such as ZFX, KZL, CBH, PEM; I wonder whether these companies will cut back on Zn production to increase there lead output to take advantage of leads current price appreciation. I was listening to a CBH presentation last night saying they thought lead was topping and were happy to partially hedge at these current prices but you never know these days as soon as hedge funds get involved the skies are the limits.

Inventories have remained relatively unchanged over the past 6 months and cancelled warrants are fairly low at 1400t. While we have seen Zinc inventories decline by around 18,000-19,000t over the past 6 months with cancelled warrants remaining robust for the majority of this time period. So why has Zinc been lagging of late? Oh well suppose I can’t complain $1.60/lb is still highly profitable for many Zinc miners and the appreciation in lead is making up for a bit of the Zn disappointment at the moment.


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## BREND (6 July 2007)

ta2693 said:


> Thank you Brend. But I have no experience in trading commodity. It is a new area for me. If there is some share exposed to lead,I am willing to have a go.
> 
> By the way, what broker are you using to trade commodity?




I'm using a broker in Singapore.


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## stefoid (6 July 2007)

You might want to check out copper strike.  Fat Prophets has a report on them.  They have a few projects, but the most advanced is a very large low grade copper project that is due for a BFS soon.

However.  They recently had some very impressive strikes of lead/zinc/silver deposits very close to the proposed copper mine, with more on the way.  A much revised BFS incorporating a multiple mine, polymetalic  project is due in a few months...


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## BREND (6 July 2007)

stefoid said:


> You might want to check out copper strike.  Fat Prophets has a report on them.  They have a few projects, but the most advanced is a very large low grade copper project that is due for a BFS soon.
> 
> However.  They recently had some very impressive strikes of lead/zinc/silver deposits very close to the proposed copper mine, with more on the way.  A much revised BFS incorporating a multiple mine, polymetalic  project is due in a few months...




I bought Comex Copper futures when copper price is lower, at current price I'll not place my bet anymore (downside risk is too high in my view).

My trades:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/07/sold-1-lot-copper-today.html

http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/07/comex-copper-usd1500-profit.html


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## BREND (22 July 2007)

ta2693 said:


> I just read a industry report, it said lead will have 50000 ton shortage in 2007.
> I think that may make lead the next hot commodity.
> Does anyone know what company is ASX has world class lead deposit. What company has world class deposit of lead?
> Thank you.




Lead is trading at $3400, way beyond my expectation.


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## drmb (25 September 2007)

GREENS said:


> Think Lead might take over Zinc soon lol…In all seriousness maybe its not a laughing matter the way lead is trading at the moment, no matter how other metals are performing it just keeps going up.




Lead seems to be going up faster than other commodities. Seems to have hit a near all time high last night on kitcometals.com


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## michael_selway (25 September 2007)

drmb said:


> Lead seems to be going up faster than other commodities. Seems to have hit a near all time high last night on kitcometals.com




It already is maybe! maybe next one is Zinc? what do u think?

thx

MS


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## BREND (11 October 2007)

Lead is trading at 3860 today.


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## dj_420 (11 October 2007)

PEM has a large exposure to lead, they are trading near their lows and market expects a rather large earnings upgrade very soon.


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## drmb (12 October 2007)

Hmmm, will have to look at PEM again. 

_LME hits a new high, and the outlook is for even greater gains
Daniel Magnowski,  Associated Press _ 

LONDON ”” Lead hit a new high in early business at the London Metal Exchange on Thursday, supported by a tight supply outlook combined with strong demand from battery makers, analysts said. The metal has outperformed other LME contracts, and indeed most other assets, with gains of 130 per cent since the start of the year.

By 10:30 (GMT), lead for delivery in three months traded up to $3,890 (U.S.) per tonne on electronic dealing system Select, surpassing its previous peak of $3,885, which it struck on Tuesday. Despite these high prices, users of the metal have little choice but to continue buying, analysts said.

“There is a fair way to go before they will even look at making a change,” BNP Paribas analyst David Thurtell said.


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## dj_420 (12 October 2007)

PEM apparantly is in top 8 lead producers in world, they are just ahead of ZFX. Looking good for exposure to lead prices.


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## michael_selway (12 October 2007)

dj_420 said:


> PEM has a large exposure to lead, they are trading near their lows and market expects a rather large earnings upgrade very soon.




Yeah not bad but does it have short mine life?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 43.1 66.0 73.5 52.6 
DPS 11.0 17.0 16.0 12.3 *







thx

MS


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## Morgan (13 October 2007)

Michael,
You have obviously been looking at the latest powerpoint presentation however I feel you may be interpreting the data incorrectly (although maybe I am?) If you look at the left side of "slide 11"- I interperet this to mean that the area that is *currently being mined has five more years of rRESERVES. The right hand side of the slide shows areas that are being developed, presumably where reserves will be firmed in due course in hope of future mining in those new areas. 
If you then look at the top right hand graph on "slide 16"- this seems to show that PEM aim to keep increasing proven reserves so that the "5 years to go" always stays near "5 years to go", even as time goes on. 

I hold PEM so of course will be interested how others are interpreting current publicly available data*


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## BREND (15 October 2007)

Guys, isnt too late to be bullish about Lead?
I have been talking about lead when it is trading at 3300.
Now asking customers to take profit at 3900.


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