# Uranium Sector



## prs (4 December 2007)

Does anybody have any thoughts as to why the uranium sector is languishing at the moment. I would have thought that it would've been up trending before now?


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## numbercruncher (4 December 2007)

imho this was one of the few sectors destined to stagnate under labor, John dubbya Howard guaranteed us nuke reactors and that Ruddy good bloke promised we will get none


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## prs (4 December 2007)

I guess this new Gov't has a little doubt attached to it. From my perspective the   indicators are still strong and that's why I thought I'd throw it open and see what others felt.


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## numbercruncher (4 December 2007)

Yes, there will still be overseas demand and growth, Im not sure Labor will let any tom dick and harry buy it though, Nuclear reactors have serious set up and on going costs, Im punting some serious viable alternatives will get preference over Nuclear.


Look at how much sun we get here, Solar has so got to be the best choice for us, no waste, no army of guards to keep Osama out etc etc


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## prs (4 December 2007)

Valid point mate but geez it takes a lot of acreage to put up the solar panels. I would have thought it would be in Australia's interest to increase the number of uranium mines especially with the close of Cigar Lake in Canada. Australia has about 40% of the world's uranium. Surely it's gotta be worth a lot of money to the Gov't.


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## numbercruncher (4 December 2007)

Yes it would take up alot of room for sure, If every rooftop had a panel thou ... Feeding the grid all day ...

Yes our Uranium deposits are massive for sure ...... Be interesting to see how the sector plays out, I always found it amusing how Dubbya was encouraging Johnny to build reactors (guess who would of designed/build them)

Heres a decent read about how much panel scientists think we would need, seen as we are the most sundrenched country on earth they say it is the best choice , Id like to see it all costed.



> The results also confirm the findings of a report published by CSIRO's National Solar Energy Centre in 2001, saying Australia had the highest average solar radiation of any continent.
> 
> Dr Leigh Sheppard, of the University of New South Wales' Centre for Materials Research, believes an area approximately 160km square, or one-third the size of Kangaroo Island, could provide all of Australia's energy needs




http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22842841-1702,00.html

Maybe solar wouldnt be sooo expensive, get our friends in China to whack out the panels for us ?


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## aussie joe (5 December 2007)

good luck with solar panel idea.

I have not fully researched the solar panel solution but can someone tell me what and how much of each material goes to making one solar panel. Also how much energy is required to make a solar panel and how much electricity this panel can produce annually. 

If which I doubt if we have excess electricty produced by solar panels feeding back to the grid how do your store this excess electricity for future use?

anyones feedback will be appreciated. 

Isn't electricity produced on a demand basis...

don't get me wrong solar will play a considerable part in electricity production but something is required for based load electricity generation


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## insider (5 December 2007)

prs said:


> Does anybody have any thoughts as to why the uranium sector is languishing at the moment. I would have thought that it would've been up trending before now?




HEY PRS! If it is anything to go by the Uranium sector isn't doing anything different from last year so perhaps we will see a rise next week... which is roughly the same time as last years' movement...


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## prs (6 December 2007)

G'Day Insider
Actually I think you're right it did start to take off about now. It's weird really I thought it would have moved earlier but I guess the nthn hemisphere winter has a bit to do with it also. The indicators are still strong so I guess having bought in at post $1 I'll ride it out for a bit longer. Thanks for your comment


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## lancer (7 December 2007)

insider said:


> HEY PRS! If it is anything to go by the Uranium sector isn't doing anything different from last year so perhaps we will see a rise next week... which is roughly the same time as last years' movement...




I agree, December should be a rally.


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## noirua (7 December 2007)

Coal and Uranium may well be among the few commodities to move on in 2008 as major economies slow.  Possible that mining investors may evacuate the major booming mining sector in favour of Uranium, that has dropped back.


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## Real1ty (7 December 2007)

The main reason the Uranium sector has been stagnating atm is two fold.

Firstly the spot price of Uranium took a very big hit and dropped from about $135/lb to $65/lb and secondly any of these type of stocks will pull back if there is doubt over the continual growth rate of the world economies.

The spot price is quite irrelevant to a lot of producers as the majority of them have contracts locked in place and in the case of my favourite and owned producers Paladin they have fixed contracts with room to re-negotiate should the spot price increase above a nominated price.

If you look at the amount of new power plants to be built in just China alone over the next few years, not too mention the pressure that will come from global warming i believe that the current spot price of $93/lb will seem like a spec of sand on a beach in the years to come.


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## prs (8 December 2007)

Thanks REAL1TY I welcome your comments.
There's much speculation about the potential spot price of U and I guess as more reactors are built, the demand is going to be so great that perhaps some of the figures of hundreds of dollars per pound, may just be correct. It remains to be seen.
With MTN having probably the 3rd biggest resource of U3O8 in Australia, I would've thought that if the new Labour Gov't is going to issue more licences it would have to consider MTN very hard. Do you have any thoughts on this?


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## Real1ty (9 December 2007)

prs said:


> Thanks REAL1TY I welcome your comments.
> There's much speculation about the potential spot price of U and I guess as more reactors are built, the demand is going to be so great that perhaps some of the figures of hundreds of dollars per pound, may just be correct. It remains to be seen.
> With MTN having probably the 3rd biggest resource of U3O8 in Australia, I would've thought that if the new Labour Gov't is going to issue more licences it would have to consider MTN very hard. Do you have any thoughts on this?




LOL, you have managed to pick my only other Uranium holding Marathon.

I got in quite early and have an average PP of .68c so was very happy with the prices earlier this year.

Having said that it doesn't really matter much to me as these are a stock i bought for the very long term, so didn't sell then and won't be selling for many years.

The SA govt is quite receptive to Uranuim, at least in comparison to other states, and imo none of that is going to matter in the years ahead as it is going to get to a stage where no matter how much opposition to Uranium there is the Australlian Govt will have no choice but to embrace Uranium, as will the rest of the world.

I base my thinking not only on the ever diminishing energy fuels but also on global warming.

The world will have no choice but to use Uranium as other sources of energy are killing our world and no other option will be anywhere near ready enough to feed a world with maturing BRIC economies.

I believe that nations with Uranium at their disposal will be forced to issue licenses to mine no matter what their opposition to it is as there will be no other alternative.

Marathon seems to be a reasonably well run company with a resource that will only continue to grow.

If you were interested in entering the Uranium sector and had some patience to sit on your shares for a couple of years you could do very well with them imo.

MTN has no need of a license yet but by the time it is ready for one i would think there would be a very receptive response to their request.


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## jman2007 (11 December 2007)

The Ur share boom and subsequent fall from grace was fuelled largely by grossly unrealistic expectations of investors coupled with a complete lack of knowledge in the sector.  And of cource, the rapid rise in the spot rise played a large role in this.  This harsh lesson was a steep learning curve for investors, who imo will probably be far more prudent in which companies they invest in in the future.

At present, there are probably well over 100 companies on the ASX claiming to have direct exposure to Ur, and just how many do you think will ever actually go into production?  Well the answer is not many.  The sector has also been severely hampered by a lack of expertise as a whole, afterall, after languishing at $US 7 lb for U3O8, how many comapnies would have had expereience in developing these kind of projects?  This has probably also been refelcted in the inability of some comapnies in Australia to take advantage of the price surge, coupled with over regulation in the industry and heritage rights issues.  I find it quite amusing that every second Ur listed company has so-called "experts in their field" on board, so just where the hell did these guys come from then?!

Don't get me wrong, I think over the long term, Ur shares will deliver a substansial return, but the choice of which company to invest in will be key.  I would be looking for quality of management, obviously grade, depth level of emplacemt of the deposit, and ACCESS to KEY INFRASTRUCTURE. Of course 99% of people would prefer solar energy to Ur, but I believe to expect India or China to adopt these measures is unrealistic.  They are still playing catchup to the developed world, and while their economies are in a state of rapid expansion, I don't think their environmental legislation could be expected to develop at the same tempo.

While that's my  anyway


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## noirua (11 December 2007)

The main problem for most of the Uranium shares that have taken big hits is basic, "They Ain't got any Uranium", and if they had the financing and 5-years to bring it into production, adds further difficulties.  Most have only one option and that's joint ventures, unfortunately, those that have been agreed recently do not cover ALL the previous costs and airborne surveys.


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## Rafa (11 December 2007)

Spot on...

This was always bound to happen... i.e. the separating of the quality stocks from the rest of the hanger oner'ers... and boy, were there a few of them.

Compare Bannerman to the rest... It has real Uranium... and is capable of being dug out using simple cost effective processes, and has the capacity to begin production in the next 3-5 years...

Its share price, while copping a hammering a few months ago, is back, close to all time highs...


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## jman2007 (11 December 2007)

Rafa said:


> Spot on...
> 
> This was always bound to happen... i.e. the separating of the quality stocks from the rest of the hanger oner'ers... and boy, were there a few of them.
> 
> ...




Yes, the Bannerman chart looks very impressive, one that the chartists will be oodling over I'm sure. At 2.40 currently, 6 months ago I would have said MTN would be a fantatstic buy but now I'm not so sure. Although Mt Ghee still looks like one of the best deposits in Australia by far, the underground scenario sounds like it would be expensive to develop.  It still looks like there may be some risk with the development as a whole too.

I would also consider CTS (high grade Corachapi deposit in Peru) and MRO/UKL as serious contenders to go into production over the next 3-5 years, and of course there would be others that I don't follow right now.


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## prs (11 December 2007)

So considering the companies out there with exploration licences wouldn't you think that MTN ought to be the next company to be granted a licence to mine? After all, it's got JORC, it's got a solid administration and there's probably no reason why it can't start mining in a couple of years, providing it can get approval. Sure it may have to be an underground mine because of the sensitivity of the area but MTN's administration knows that. I would've thought that being the 3rd or 4th biggest uranium resource in Australia, it's to Marathon's, the South Australian Government's and the Australian Governments benefit and interest to approve it a mining licence.
Anyone agree or disagree?
I'm very interested as I have a significant number of shares.


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## the barry (11 December 2007)

The problem with the uranium sector was it went through something similar to the tech boom. Everyone threw the name uranium in their company name and suddenly the stock was up multiples. Like the tech boom only the quality stocks will remain, such as era and pdn. 
The one to watch though at the moment as people mentioned above is bannermans. Chart is looking very bullish at the moment and there upgraded resource will be announced jan.


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## hangseng (11 December 2007)

the barry said:


> The problem with the uranium sector was it went through something similar to the tech boom. Everyone threw the name uranium in their company name and suddenly the stock was up multiples. Like the tech boom only the quality stocks will remain, such as era and pdn.
> The one to watch though at the moment as people mentioned above is bannermans. Chart is looking very bullish at the moment and there upgraded resource will be announced jan.




I don't entirely disagree with you but there are other stocks that are going to benefit. UKL, EXT, AGS, ARU, BLR and PEN (amongst others) are small caps that are going to make it and have been mentioned as such by Far East Capital amongst others in the media.

Don't write off this sector so quickly, the uranium demand will increase exponentially and will have a price to match. Nuclear power is the way of the future, even the environmental zealots are softening to this.

This isn't a tech boom/bust scenario and there is enough information out there to support my view, including Dines and Far East Capital with numerous brokers supporting U stocks.


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## prs (11 December 2007)

What are people's thoughts on Marathon as a potential uranium mining company?


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## jman2007 (11 December 2007)

prs said:


> So considering the companies out there with exploration licences wouldn't you think that MTN ought to be the next company to be granted a licence to mine? After all, it's got JORC, it's got a solid administration and there's probably no reason why it can't start mining in a couple of years, providing it can get approval. Sure it may have to be an underground mine because of the sensitivity of the area but MTN's administration knows that. I would've thought that being the 3rd or 4th biggest uranium resource in Australia, it's to Marathon's, the South Australian Government's and the Australian Governments benefit and interest to approve it a mining licence.
> Anyone agree or disagree?
> I'm very interested as I have a significant number of shares.




Well naturally you'd expext the SA Govt to get in behind this one since it's happening right in their own backyard. Although imo, to expect MTN to be in production "in a couple of years" is a bit optimistic, considering that a company like UKL who are planning a open-cut, heap-leach style of operation at Apex-Lowoy are predicting mid 2009 to the earliest start up date for production.

If you consider Cameco's Cigar Lake project, this gives you some idea of the complexities and challenges faced with mining underground, although of course, Mt Ghee isn't sitting underneath a lake.  There is still a small risk that Mt Ghee wont go ahead, but more of a hurdle will be the huge amount of capital required to get this operation going, probably several hundred million if not more. I don't know exactly who is on the MTN management team, but whether or not they have any experience developing underground operations and running them effectively I don't know, so maybe some management risk too.

Obviously the project has considerable merit, but the re-evaluation in the sp comes at a time when people are now being much more objective about which U company they back, I might even buy into MTN myself, but until the chart stabilises somewhat I'm going to wait and see what happens.


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## the barry (12 December 2007)

hangseng said:


> I don't entirely disagree with you but there are other stocks that are going to benefit. UKL, EXT, AGS, ARU, BLR and PEN (amongst others) are small caps that are going to make it and have been mentioned as such by Far East Capital amongst others in the media.
> 
> Don't write off this sector so quickly, the uranium demand will increase exponentially and will have a price to match. Nuclear power is the way of the future, even the environmental zealots are softening to this.
> 
> This isn't a tech boom/bust scenario and there is enough information out there to support my view, including Dines and Far East Capital with numerous brokers supporting U stocks.




The tech sector didnt go bust either, like the tech sector the quality will survive the rest should be kept well away from. The lag time from discovery to actuall mining is to long for a lot of the explores to take advantage of the climbing u price.


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## Trader Paul (12 December 2007)

Hi folks,

Uranium sector ... will be alert for a recovery, particularly in March, June 
and November 2008, as a result of expected energy price hikes, expected
in early-March 2008.

More later, in our astroanalysis for 2008 ... 

happy days

paul



=====


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## hangseng (12 December 2007)

the barry said:


> The tech sector didnt go bust either, like the tech sector the quality will survive the rest should be kept well away from. The lag time from discovery to actuall mining is to long for a lot of the explores to take advantage of the climbing u price.




All of the stocks I have indicated have the potential for early progress to production and have scoping studies complete or in progress, resources identified as Jorc or nearing Jorc compliance. Far East Capital also supports this view.


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## prs (12 December 2007)

Exactly, so let me go back to a previous question. What do you guys think of Marathon seeing as it has JORC, an apparently stable and enthusiastic administration and the strong possibility to be mining in the not too distant future, albeit underground?


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## hangseng (12 December 2007)

prs said:


> Exactly, so let me go back to a previous question. What do you guys think of Marathon seeing as it has JORC, an apparently stable and enthusiastic administration and the strong possibility to be mining in the not too distant future, albeit underground?




I could easily add Marathon


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## DB008 (13 December 2007)

Don't forget BHP. It has 40% of Australia's known U @ Olympic Dam in S.A. And Thorium is mixed in there too l think.
Just my


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## DB008 (13 December 2007)

Encounter Resources Limited                 ENR

Wildhorse Energy Limited                      WHE

U308 Limited                                      UTO

Uranex NL                                          UNX

Marathon Resources Limited                  MTN

PepinNini Minerals Limited                      PNN

Paladin Resources Limited                      PDN

Energy Resources of Australia Limited     ERA

Summit Resources Limited                     SMM

Deep Yellow Limited                             DYL

Uranium Equities Limited                       UEQ

Uran Limited                                       URA

Bannerman Resources Limited                BMN


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## ithatheekret (13 December 2007)

I think everything is pointing to a big swing in the price next year ...... up .

Coal looks the same . Everything may flop in the states but India and China will fill any gap in US intake that may come about .

What is more interesting though is the consolidation that everyone thinks is mellowing , it's actually just a pause . 2008 looks like it could be a record takeover year too .......... and it looks just like the last mining boom but on a much grander scale . All the South African exits will be reconsidered and that will probably semaphore the beginning of the next phase .

What the financial markets have to get into their thick heads , is that a global economic shift has been under way , for over 4 years now , yet they have gone on their merry way . Ask an elderly person , it's just a repeat of previous economic shifts , the scale is just larger . The resource sector , which supplies the main ingredients to make economic cake , is the core attraction . Then they have to bake it .

Energy makes us warm and cool and gives us all the things we need to go on our merry way , as it is an essential , the cheapest forms must be sought to aid manufacture . For the energy units to be cheap they must be in ample availability , to those that need them the most , . et al India ..... and China .

And we need it to bake the cake ! Let the delivery drivers worry about the petrol prices ................ they can always be outsourced .

PS.. oh yeah , the big haha is that the takeovers are going to be SCRIP ....... There'll be no giving away CASH .


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## insider (13 December 2007)

AGS - Alliance Resources

CTS -  Contact Uranium

EME - Energy Metals ltd

EXT - Extract Resources

UKL - Uranium King ltd

UXA - Uranium Exploration Australia

WME -  Western Metals


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## jl77 (8 January 2008)

Add CUY to that list.

Uranium sector ... will be alert for a recovery, particularly in March as a result of expected energy price hikes

CUY pending announcement for approval from PIRSA for ISL trial.

WIll not only be one but they will conduct multiple ISL trials based on them having an "open" resource.
Then JORC will be established and easy to up scale to production.

By Q3/Q42008 they should be able to produce U308 with approvals in Q12008

Severly undervalued at present.  
$3+ by 2009.


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## kevosero (11 January 2008)

Anybody else still holding onto Paladin Energy? Bought into Summit before things really took off and jumped to Paladin during the buy out. Was always thinking long term on this which is why I didn't sell when the down turn began, although well you know....

I still think this stock has a lot of potential this year as the earlier production issues seem to be going away. Pretty solid directors with old Mr Borschoff and after all it is actually mining, unlike a lot of other uranium stocks that are years away.

Any thoughts?


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## ddoma000 (1 February 2008)

Does anyone know where I can find the daily spot price for U3O8 (lb) --> That yellow cake per pound. The best I have been able to find so far is:

http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_prices.aspx

Unfortunately this only provides the weekly spot price for Uranium.


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## grace (1 February 2008)

About a year ago, I read in a newspaper that our Australian U miners are all contracted in at about $20 until 2012 (being BHP, ERA etc).  Is this correct?  I see ERA's results out - prices acheived are in the 20's.


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## lancer (1 February 2008)

ddoma000 said:


> Does anyone know where I can find the daily spot price for U3O8 (lb) --> That yellow cake per pound. The best I have been able to find so far is:
> 
> http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_prices.aspx
> 
> Unfortunately this only provides the weekly spot price for Uranium.




its only published weekly


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## prs (1 February 2008)

ddoma000 said:


> Does anyone know where I can find the daily spot price for U3O8 (lb) --> That yellow cake per pound. The best I have been able to find so far is:
> 
> http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_prices.aspx
> 
> Unfortunately this only provides the weekly spot price for Uranium.




Hi ddoma
Apart from UXC I consult /www.nymex.com/index.aspx , go into Markets, Metals, Uranium and across to the left is Current Session Overview, down the bottom to "I agree", submit and look at the prices that have been bid on. You'll see that Uranium has plateaued out, probably waiting for the northern winter to really get established or something, I don't know. I know that the prices this time last year were significantly higher.


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## noirua (10 June 2010)

Northern Territory Government listed uranium mines, deposits and explorers: http://www.nt.gov.au/d/orestruck/Content/File/Investment_Alert/may/uranium_final.pdf


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## noirua (25 June 2010)

Miscellaneous uranium deposits in Western Australia:  http://www.sea-us.org.au/no-way/wa-misc.html


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## Tanaka (25 June 2010)

Talking uranium, it's been off the radar for some time. Is it time to make a contrarian play on uranium?

There are more and more nuclear reactors being built in India, China and elsewhere. It's cleaner than coal. Other energy resources have had a good run...

Interesting that Uranium One sold off it's interest in Paladin after slowly crawling up its share registery. Any takes on that?


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## noirua (1 August 2010)

Tanaka said:


> Talking uranium, it's been off the radar for some time. Is it time to make a contrarian play on uranium?
> 
> There are more and more nuclear reactors being built in India, China and elsewhere. It's cleaner than coal. Other energy resources have had a good run...
> 
> Interesting that Uranium One sold off it's interest in Paladin after slowly crawling up its share registery. Any takes on that?




Good post Tanaka, as Uranium jumps in price to US$46 lb, up $4.25 last week. The whole sector from $5 million minnow to billion dollar companies have been walloped in the last 18 months. 
As you say, China and India are gradually adding more Uranium powered Power Stations. Forecast for 2011 is for a price of US$58 for uranium
Just as coal rose from dog to tiger thus the tiger must return to Uranium.


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## DB008 (5 August 2010)

Tanaka said:


> Talking uranium, it's been off the radar for some time. Is it time to make a contrarian play on uranium?
> 
> There are more and more nuclear reactors being built in India, China and elsewhere. It's cleaner than coal. Other energy resources have had a good run...




Until there is an accident. I'm guess that the "Chernobyl meltdown" is still in the publics minds. Mention Uranium, and that's one of the first things that pops into people heads. 

http://www.world-
nuclear.org/info/inf63.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100719/wl_asia_afp/chinaenergynuclear

Having said that, l do agree that sooner or later, the price will have to rise based on simple supply and demand. More and more demand, will eventually have an effect on price. China has planned to build 28 Uranium power stations by 2020, that in itself "should cause a rise in the $U price. Factor in other countries needs and, well, it "should" pick the price up.


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## noirua (10 August 2010)

Uranium appears to be the heaviest hit energy sector and the minnows have been bashed into near oblivion - 52c down to 3c is not the worse sector faller. Time, imho, to buy the sector - for those not risk adverse to the point of paralysis.


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## barney (11 August 2010)

noirua said:


> Uranium appears to be the heaviest hit energy sector and the minnows have been bashed into near oblivion - 52c down to 3c is not the worse sector faller. Time, imho, to buy the sector - for those not risk adverse to the point of paralysis.




Totally agree Noirua ......  

I've put my money where my mouth is so to speak with PEN .... but there are quite a few spec plays with great potential if the Uranium bug hits again ...... ACB, DYL etc etc ...... 

With the spot U price rising again, and the Chinese chaps stocking up lately, the bottom has probably been and gone .....  

Taking a medium (2-5 ) year view, there may never be a better time to park some money into future Uranium producers .....


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## noirua (12 August 2010)

barney said:


> Totally agree Noirua ......
> 
> I've put my money where my mouth is so to speak with PEN .... but there are quite a few spec plays with great potential if the Uranium bug hits again ...... ACB, DYL etc etc ......
> 
> ...




Thanks for your view barney as so many people I know, plus bulletin board stock punters (high risk investors I mean), appear unable to risk money in the uranium sector. When the recovery is well and truly underway they'll all pile in, as the clever ones sell into the market to Bank some profits.
Good luck - noi


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