# Silver price discussion and analysis



## RALPH5

I don't know how many ppl here follow the commodities market
but for many years now Teb Butler has been telling us of market
manipulation in the Silver and to a lesser extent the Gold market.
This is another interesting articule from him.

Cheers Ralph


TED BUTLER'S ARCHIVES

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

January 11, 2005

Same As It Ever Was

By Theodore Butler

(The following essay was written by silver analyst Theodore Butler. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views, which may or may not prove to be correct.)

Repetitive, that’s one word. Another is manipulative. I’m talking about the price action in silver (and gold). Once again, significant price movements were dictated by the trading tango between mechanical technical funds and the New York dealers. This is what moves the markets. In the short to intermediate term, it is the only thing that moves the markets.

Specifically, the dumping of thousands of contracts by the tech funds on the COMEX caused the latest drop in gold and silver prices. Certainly, nothing changed in the real world of metals that justified the price movements, just paper trading on the COMEX. Nothing new here.

Also, there is nothing new in the lack of reaction by government regulators, Exchange officials or silver mining CEOs, who all pretend nothing is wrong with pricing being controlled by speculators. As I said; repetitive.

But it would be wrong if you thought I was complaining. In fact, I’m ecstatic. The good news, of course, is that the dealers have been covering short positions aggressively. This, alone, is great cause for optimism about eventual higher prices. When the dealers have covered their short positions in silver, the risk is removed. I think we’re there. 

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report is revealing. First, there was massive, massive liquidation in gold by the technical funds, with commensurate dealer short covering. More importantly, the massive liquidation continued in earnest from the Tuesday cut-off. I would estimate that we now have much less of a tech fund long and dealer short position in gold, than we had at the bottom in September, when gold was at $400. 

From the top, I would estimate that the funds have liquidated 100,000 long gold COMEX contracts, with a big chunk coming in the current reporting week and the three trading days from the cut-off. It should be clear to you that this is what foretold and caused the almost $40 decline in gold from the top. That there are still gold promoters that don’t see this, or refuse to see it, is stunning. This sell-off should have been no surprise to anyone paying attention. On the positive side, gold should be cleaned out, or close to cleaned out, to the downside.

In silver, there was an unexpectedly small reduction in this week’s COTs. There had been a 30,000 contract (150,000 million oz) reduction in the dealer net short position in the weeks prior to this current report, and I had been expecting a further 10,000 contract reduction in this week’s report, indicating a major low-risk buy point. Instead, the report indicated only a 2500 contract reduction in the net dealer short position and no decrease in the tech fund long position. Or more correctly, no decrease in the non-commercial gross long category, which is where the tech funds are classified. 

So what does this mean for silver? While the report could be correct in that the tech funds didn’t get completely liquidated yet, and we still need to witness further tech fund selling amid lower prices, my sense is that is not the case. Also, while it’s possible there may be errors in the current report (we’ve seen that before), my sense is that something else has happened that is of the utmost significance to the near term direction of silver prices. 

This is obviously speculation on my part, so please treat it as such. I think that the tech funds were completely liquidated in silver, but the reason the latest COT report doesn’t reflect that, is because some other large (non-technically oriented) traders took their place. I base my speculation on daily price, volume and open interest data for the time period covered in the report.

If my speculation is correct, it could mean that some very strong hands have come into the silver market. This would be a sudden and very bullish development. Accordingly, I see very little reason not to embrace a full bullish tilt towards silver. This is another mother buy point, maybe The Buy Point.

If you still have any doubt as to what really moves the silver market, I invite you to reread prior articles to grasp this Commitment of Trader market structure phenomenon. If you’re short on time, just start with skimming the articles describing the previous major lows in gold and silver in September, staring with, "The Set-Up?" when the dealers had a relatively small short position. This market structure allowed the resultant $60 price rally in gold and an almost $2 rally in silver, which were ultimately capped and reversed with historic dealer scale-up short selling. 

As happy as I am to be presented with another one of those "dimes to the downside, dollars to the upside" buy points, there is something even more compelling about the current set-up. It’s hard to pinpoint it, but there seems to be a confluence of factors suggesting that this silver buy point will be the "big one". The one that will make history.

For one thing, there is a widespread tightness in all mineral commodities, thanks particularly to China that just doesn’t seem to be going away. Inventories of all the industrial metals continue to drop, some, like copper, to alarmingly low levels. In addition in copper, the COMEX delivery situation still appears critical. I get the feeling the exchange just barely made it through the December copper delivery process by the skin of its teeth, with behind-the-scenes jaw-boning and private workouts. The COMEX will be lucky if it can make it through the next few months without a copper delivery problem, in my opinion. I keep mentioning this, as a delivery problem in COMEX copper may quickly shine the light on COMEX silver, given that COMEX silver has the largest naked short position in commodity history; a clear invitation to an eventual delivery problem, for a commodity in a structural deficit.

Further, actual silver deliveries to investors are still being delayed. The Central Fund of Canada will not be getting the silver it purchased a couple of months ago any time soon, and I have even heard reports that the other big Canadian institutional investor still hasn’t received all the silver it has been waiting for since early last summer. Remember, delivery delays are a symptom of shortage. While I can’t substantiate it, I get the feeling that the dealers are delivering silver to industrial users, ahead of investors to prevent problems from surfacing. Sort of like emergency room triage.

Silver Eagle sales for 2004 were strong, at over 9.6 million ounces, making it the 2nd best year in the past 15, and 3rd best since the program began. All told, when you add in Proof Eagles and other coins and all the commemorative issues by the US Mint, the government is buying a million ounces of silver a month on the open market. This demand should remain strong as far as the eye can see; or at least until a price emergency occurs in silver.

One final note – the gold exchange traded fund, GLD, has seen some impressive real gold accumulation on the gold price swoon, adding one million ounces in a few days. Coupled with the drastically improved COTs, gold could be set for an impressive bounce. As I’ve said before, if there was no such thing as silver, gold would be an attraction for me, particularly now. But with the COTs set up as I believe in silver, plus the always- improving fundamentals, why go fishing when you can shoot fish in a barrel?


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## clowboy

*SILVER*

Hey all

Looking for some exposure to silver (bullion).

I have been wanting to buy some silver for quite some time now but the transaction costs on bullion are phenominal.

Anyone have any shares(silver co's etc) or other methods of gaining exposure to silver?

Also an interesting chart on silver......

http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html


Thanks


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## sam76

*Re: SILVER*

mmn


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## Hanrahan

*Re: SILVER*

Or BSG


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## crackaton

*Re: SILVER*

Silver is out of control!! CUrrently sitting on 10.17 !!


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## michael_selway

*Re: SILVER*



			
				crackaton said:
			
		

> Silver is out of control!! CUrrently sitting on 10.17 !!




yeah I wonder why? Gold hasnt moved much


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## crackaton

*Re: SILVER*

Overseas bonds fell. Japan is moving rates up and Europe is following. The days of cheap free money are coming to an end. also EFT approaches for silver. Happy days ahead!!


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## nizar

*Re: SILVER*



			
				crackaton said:
			
		

> Overseas bonds fell. Japan is moving rates up and Europe is following. The days of cheap free money are coming to an end. also EFT approaches for silver. Happy days ahead!!




what do u think the japanese rate increase will do for the japanese equities market? It should fall initially, then recover u would think yeh? EVery1 had to expect that rate rises naturally come when economies recover....

but of course, during last year, everytime interest rates rose up, market dumped by 100pts, even though people knew it was coming, funny how that happens...


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## crackaton

*Re: SILVER*

CORRECTED - COMEX silver settles up 4.3 pct, market eyes ETF
Thu Mar 2, 2006 4:38 PM ET
Printer Friendly | Email Article | Reprints | RSS (Page 1 of 2)
In NEW YORK story headlined "COMEX silver settles up 4.3 pct, market eyes ETF," please read in paragraph 15, "June palladium gained $3.05 ..," instead of "June palladium gained 3.05 cents..." (Corrects amount)
A corrected version follows

NEW YORK, March 2 (Reuters) - U.S. silver futures vaulted to a 22-year high on Thursday, amid aggressive commodity fund buying that boosted the precious metal over $10 an ounce ahead of a widely expected approval of a silver exchange-traded fund (ETF), sources said.

"I think the market certainly positioned itself for that and as we got closer to that $10 mark, it just became irresistible and the stops went off and some fresh buyers came in," said Bernard Hunter, director of precious metals at ScotiaMocatta.

Silver for May delivery surged 4.3 percent, or 41.8 cents, settling at $10.208 an ounce at the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, after dealing from $9.76 to $10.225, its loftiest level since early 1984.

"There was some more talk around during the day that the Securities and Exchange Commission is over its supposed guidance period for passing back comments and there was no news, so people were thinking maybe a decision must be imminent," Hunter added.

Investors were anxious to build long positions above $10 an ounce in expectation that the proposed silver ETF would be approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission, following the end of a 21-day public comment period on the ETF, ordered by the SEC.

Spot silver shot up to a 22-year high at 10.23 amid fund buying that was tied to the gains seen in the copper market, dealers said.

It last fetched $10.18/10.21, well above $9.75/78 late Wednesday. The daily spot reference rate was fixed at $9.7875 in London.

George Gero, vice president at RBC Capital Markets Global Futures noted that the metal has turned respectable and has attracted institutional interest since it had passed the 100,000 open interest mark.

As of March 1, open interest in the silver market was up 263 lots at 128,102 lots.


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## crackaton

*Re: SILVER*

MEXICO CITY -(Dow Jones)- Miners returned to work at Mexico's Fresnillo silver mine Thursday after a one-day walkout that was part of a nationwide strike called by the National Mining and Metal Workers Union.

Fresnillo, in Zacatecas state, is the main silver mine of Industrias Penoles SA (PE&OLES.MX), the world's biggest silver producer with annual output of 80 million ounces. The mine also produces zinc and lead.

Penoles spokesman Luis Rey said 400 of the 600 workers at the mine voted to end the strike, which the 250,000-member National Mining and Metal Workers Union called late Tuesday in support of boss Napoleon Gomez Urrutia, whose leadership is being challenged.

Rey said the company was hopeful the decision by the Fresnillo miners would influence strikers at its MetMex metals refining facility in Torreon.

The Labor Ministry has declared the walkouts illegal.


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## crackaton

*Re: SILVER*

Silver up again. Looks like investors shifting from gold to silver.

Read this

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=18141

Have a nice day


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## nizar

*Re: SILVER*

agree

gold has been trading in the 545-555 range for a while now, seems to be lacking direction or any incentive to go up further. It doesnt help that the us dollar is rallying....


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## Smurf1976

*Re: SILVER*

Unlike gold which is largely used for investment, ornamental uses etc, silver is absolutely critical in many silver-consuming applications at ANY price. Add that to the supply deficit and IMO you have the setup for a real move higher in silver.


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## michael_selway

*Re: SILVER*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Unlike gold which is largely used for investment, ornamental uses etc, silver is absolutely critical in many suilver-consuming applications at ANY price. Add that to the supply deficit and IMO you have the setup for a real move higher in silver.




Hi whats the supply deficit atm?

is there a site like LME supplies for base metals?

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/lmewarehouse.html

thx

MS


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## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

MS
COMEX warehouse data will give the best proxy.
However, be aware that COMEX warehouses not only store for industry, they store for private investors.  So, where you might notice warehouse stock levels rising, do not assume it is because nobody is buying and taking delivery; they may have bought and simply stored atthe same location.
All data has interpretive issues that can sucker lay observers into wrong conclusions.

This site may have the answers you seek:
http://www.silverinstitute.org/


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## crackaton

*Re: SILVER*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> MS
> COMEX warehouse data will give the best proxy.
> However, be aware that COMEX warehouses not only store for industry, they store for private investors.  So, where you might notice warehouse stock levels rising, do not assume it is because nobody is buying and taking delivery; they may have bought and simply stored atthe same location.
> All data has interpretive issues that can sucker lay observers into wrong conclusions.
> 
> This site may have the answers you seek:
> http://www.silverinstitute.org/



Thx red good link


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## crackaton

*Re: SILVER*

20$ not far away!! go MMN and BSG and any other silver speccie or holder!!!

Silver Superspike
Clive Maund
As long-time subscribers to www.clivemaund.com are aware, I have a marked tendency to recommend the sale of things that become extremely overbought, which is generally a reasonable stance as I also have a similar tendency to recommend them long before they get to that state, in accordance with "The Prime Directive", which is to buy low and sell high. Thus, a wide range of silver stocks were recommended for purchase last year and early this year on www.clivemaund.com when they were on the bottom, including Avino Silver & Gold, Coeur d'Alene, ECU Silver, Excellon Resources and Silvercrest Mines.

There are occasions, however, in the markets when humongous "once in a generation" superspikes develop, which are very hard to predict but stand out on the charts for years afterwards like monoliths. In the earlier stages of a superspike it is tempting - and normal - to take profits due to overbought limits having been attained, or exceeded, but these superspikes have no respect for normal parameters, and it is galling to make what seems to be a prudent sale, only to see the item you have sold go from one seemingly crazily overbought extreme to the next.

I'm not easily astonished these days, but I was pulled up sharp early this weekend by a truly astonishing chart sent to me by a very learned and experienced subscriber in California. This chart is reproduced in two sections below - it had to be split in half as an attempt to reduce its size to fit on the page resulted in serious loss of picture quality. The chart is self explanatory and reveals that, although silver is seriously overbought, it is in a similar technical situation to that which prevailed before the incredible superspike in 1979. Could we see a repeat performance? - well, yes, and if what is written about the fundamentals of silver by people such as Ted Butler is true, then we have fundamental justification for it, and some would argue that it could go significantly higher than in 1979.

With special thanks to Claude in California, the annotations and commentary on the chart are his.

Alright, so how, as speculators, do we handle this extraordinary situation? We know we are looking at a market which is already very overbought, but which has a fair chance of generating a super-spike, in defiance of normal overbought parameters, resulting in huge gains. I believe the correct way to handle this situation is to put ourselves in position to make massive profits should this market go ballistic, but, should silver turn tail and go into reverse, losses are kept at a modest and acceptable level.

The correct speculative vehicle for maximising profit potential from this situation, and minimising damage in the event that the silver does not continue higher over the short to medium-term is call options in selected silver stocks. Options have the supreme advantage in the current situation in that they provide massive leverage on capital employed, while strictly limiting losses to the "stake money".

Coeur d'Alene is viewed as the large silver stock with the most upside potential, as it is still at a relatively modest price, and is arcing away from a massive Pan & Handle base, which it is important to note that it hasn't broken out of yet - when it does its rate of advance can be expected to accelerate significantly. This base area was identified a long time back and it was strongly recommended on www.clivemaund.com before the high-volume January breakout from the base. It was recommended to take profits in Coeur about a week ago on the site, but it has not reacted significantly which was considered a danger at the time, and is thus in position for rapid acceleration in the event that the silver spike intensifies. A recommended Traded Option in Coeur is the September 7.50 at 0.75, a good price. The strike price of this option is not much above the current price of the stock, so gains should be immediate if the stock advances. Furthermore, a silver superspike, should it happen, can be expected to occur before the expiry of this option.

Other attractive Traded Option contracts in the large silver stocks are described in the full version of this article in www.clivemaund.com in addition to several silver stocks that look relatively safe here and set to do very well indeed should a superspike develop.

Does what is written here represent an about-face from the cautious stance adopted by the writer some days back? Well, partly, because I don't KNOW whether silver will react here or whether it will continue to accelerate to even more extremely overbought levels. Most reasonable people would agree that a cautious stance at this juncture is quite understandable in view of the fact that the superspike scenario described here is a very rare occurrence - a once in a generation event. The purpose of this article is to outline an effective way to put yourself in position to capitalize on a superspike BIG TIME should it occur, without having to "bet the farm" on it. If you follow the strategy outlined here you will make huge gains if the superspike occurs. If it doesn't, it will cost you, but not very much.

Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysis
support@clivemaund.com
www.clivemaund.com

Kaufbeuren, Germany, 16 April 2006


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund041606.html


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## michael_selway

*Re: SILVER*



			
				crackaton said:
			
		

> 20$ not far away!! go MMN and BSG and any other silver speccie or holder!!!




Wow those 2 have been doing very well!

Below is an old intersting article

thx

MS

---------------------

Silver lining for white metal producers 

Date: 21/3/2006 
Author: Robin Bromby 
Source: The Australian --- Page: 30 
Like gold, the price of silver has been rising steadily. In March 2006 it is trading at more than $US10 an ounce. Australia is the third-largest silver producer in the world, but there are few opportunities for local traders to invest in the market. BHP Billiton is Australia's major silver producer. Substantial producers, Perilya and CBH Resources, are locked into contracts. The only specialist silver miner is Macmin Silver, but production is not due to begin until later in 2006. Meanwhile, Barclays Capital Investors is planning to open a silver-backed exchange traded fund and the Dubai Gold & Commodity Exchange will shortly give the go-ahead for a silver contract


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## nizar

*Re: SILVER*



			
				crackaton said:
			
		

> 20$ not far away!! go MMN and BSG and any other silver speccie or holder!!!




Which of the two are closer to production?


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## crackaton

*Re: SILVER*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Which of the two are closer to production?



I'll toss a round fifty and see!!


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## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

$13.50 breached overnight.
45% gain in 2 months
Hope the lid doesn't fall off any time soon!
Go Macmin Silver Mine


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## crackaton

*Re: SILVER*

Got silver?

FOCUS
Silver bullet ready
SEC approves Barclays ETF, launch expected Friday on Amex
E-mail | Print | | Disable live quotes By John Spence, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:55 AM ET Apr 27, 2006


BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- At long last, a silver exchange-traded fund that has been in the works for over a year is expected to begin trading Friday.
A registration statement for the highly-anticipated ETF from Barclays Global Investors was declared effective at 10 a.m. Eastern time Thursday by the Securities and Exchange Commission, clearing the way for the ETF to list, an SEC spokesman said. 
BGI spokeswoman Christine Hudacko said the unit of British bank Barclays Plc (UK:BARC: news, chart, profile) (BCS : Barclays PLC
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 49.41+0.49+1.00%

6:41pm 04/27/2006

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Financials 
Sponsored by:
BCS49.41, +0.49, +1.0%) plans to launch the silver ETF on the American Stock Exchange on Friday. The trust is expected to trade under the symbol "SLV," according to regulatory documents. 
Earlier this week in a filing, Barclays said 1.5 million ounces of silver had been deposited in the trust, which is slated to charge a sponsor fee of 0.5% of assets. 
Speculation on the silver ETF's imminent launch has been pushing up silver prices, which earlier this month hit multi-decade highs. The ETF, which for the first time allows individual investors to invest in silver without holding the metal or tapping futures markets, could bolster demand for the metal. 
Dubbed iShares Silver Trust, shares of the ETF represent 10 ounces of the metal held in a vault. ETFs are baskets of securities that trade on exchanges like stocks, so investors can go short as well as long, and must pay broker fees to buy and sell shares. 
Two existing gold ETFs, StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD : streetTRACKS Gold
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Last: 62.96-0.69-1.08%

6:44pm 04/27/2006

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Sponsored by:
GLD62.96, -0.69, -1.1%) and iShares Comex Gold Trust (IAU : ishares comex gold tr ishares
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Last: 63.01-0.79-1.24%

6:45pm 04/27/2006

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IAU63.01, -0.79, -1.2%) , have been popular with investors. The first mover, StreetTracks Gold Trust, has gathered about $6.5 billion since its November 2004 inception in one of the more successful fund launches in recent memory. 
The silver ETF has taken several twists and turns before it was finally approved by regulators. 
The Silver Users Association, a nonprofit lobby group interested in keeping an orderly silver market, had led the opposition to the silver ETF. The group alleged the trust would take a large amount of silver off the market and push up prices, which would hurt firms that use the metal for business or industrial purposes and result in layoffs. 
However, after a public comment period, the SEC said the silver ETF would increase the efficiency and transparency of the silver market, and that it would not spark liquidity problems. 
Some traders are expecting the ETF may usher in a new bull market for silver if it attracts money from individuals, advisers, institutions and hedge funds looking for a convenient way to get exposure to the precious metal. However, if history is any guide, the trend with gold ETFs introduced around the globe has been a run-up in the weeks up to the launch with a pullback in the weeks after the start of trading. See earlier story.


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## crackaton

*Re: SILVER*

h a read
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2006/0508.html


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## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

I put a 32 cent buy order on MMN today, and it missed the mark.
A retrace to 32.5 fills the Feb 21 gap, and I think that will happen if silver closes below $13.65 tonight as a few of the silver longs may decide to take profits.
By the end of May I am tipping silver to have broken above $15 and settled for the duration at prices much higher.  I base this on the probable removal of physical silver from Comex warehouses to satisfy the silver ETF: But I could be wrong.
IN MMN's case, the stock at end-Feb was trading at 38cents and silver hadn't even hit $10/oz.  With silver in the mid-high$13 range and MMN at 33cents, it's a steal.
Although we can never be sure what the market will do, buying MMN tomorrow is a classic "no brainer".


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## crackaton

*Re: SILVER*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> I put a 32 cent buy order on MMN today, and it missed the mark.
> A retrace to 32.5 fills the Feb 21 gap, and I think that will happen if silver closes below $13.65 tonight as a few of the silver longs may decide to take profits.
> By the end of May I am tipping silver to have broken above $15 and settled for the duration at prices much higher.  I base this on the probable removal of physical silver from Comex warehouses to satisfy the silver ETF: But I could be wrong.
> IN MMN's case, the stock at end-Feb was trading at 38cents and silver hadn't even hit $10/oz.  With silver in the mid-high$13 range and MMN at 33cents, it's a steal.
> Although we can never be sure what the market will do, buying MMN tomorrow is a classic "no brainer".




Yes the situation looks precarious. You have to have second thoughts when the ostello says there is another two years in the commodity boom, and that  we should all be saving. And then references to Keating.

Will be very interesting this time next year.


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## crackaton

*Re: SILVER*

Buffett Loses His Silver

By: Theodore Butler


The recent revelation that the renowned investor Warren Buffett sold his silver was a mega-event. It was big news when Mr. Buffett bought silver some 8 or 9 years ago, and its sale is also big news. Let me state the facts as I know them, and then I’ll speculate.

Mr. Buffett always said he would make it known when he sold his silver and he kept his word, using the occasion of his company’s annual meeting to tell of the sale. While he did not reveal the exact amount, time and price of the sale, he indicated that he "sold too early" and did not profit from the sale. I found that very surprising and particularly unusual for Buffett.

According to public statements, Mr. Buffett had amassed a large chunk of silver (between 90 and 130 million ounces) by early 1998 at low prices (under $6). Mr. Buffett was very clear as to why he purchased the silver, citing the fundamentals in the same manner that I have described them and professing to be in for the long term. I wrote several articles at that time, praising and congratulating Mr. Buffett on his investment acumen.

Silver has hit recent highs amid those fundamentals playing out almost exactly as anticipated by Buffett and myself and others. Why would Buffett sell the silver too early and how could he not profit from the recent spectacular price rise the way so many others have profited? After all, this man is an investment legend.

Here’s what I think happened. Buffett didn’t sell his silver willingly, it was taken from him. He lost it. He lost it through speculation in derivatives of the very kind he publicly vilifies.

Those who have followed the silver market closely have come to know the incredible reliability of the pattern of tech fund/dealer buying and selling of silver futures on the COMEX. This pattern has been documented by the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT), which I have written about in countless articles.

I believe that Mr. Buffett (or his advisors) also came to appreciate the compelling logic and power of the COTs. I believe that Mr. Buffett (or his advisors) became a card-carrying member of the dealer silver wolf pack, skinning the tech funds for years. I also believe that Buffett’s involvement in beating the tech funds regularly ultimately ended with his silver being taken from him.

It worked like this. When the tech funds plowed onto the long side in silver as the price broke through various moving averages on the upside, Buffett (or his advisors) would sell short against his real silver holdings. When the tech funds finally sold as prices fell back through the moving averages, those shorts established by Buffett would be bought back., booking substantial recurring profits.

The beauty of the scheme was that these shorts would not be considered "naked" by the regulators, even though there were many more affiliated wolf-pack tag-along shorts that were naked. (Whether it is legal for someone with a very large real silver position to use that position to dominate futures trading under the guise of hedging is a matter that I won’t explore at this time.)

But what worked swimmingly for years, namely, the regularity of tech fund buying and selling at expected price points, stopped working about eight months ago. The tech funds plowed onto the long side back in September at around $7.50 and the dealers sold short aggressively. But instead of the price collapsing, as it always did in the past, the price of silver doubled. And it caught many, including me, off guard. (Not for core positions, but speculative trading). I think it caught Buffett off guard as well. So much so that he had no choice but to turn over his real silver to cover his going short at $7.50 or so. He could have bought it back at $12 or $13 and booked a big loss while keeping his silver, but that disclosure might have been embarrassing.

This would explain how Buffett emerged from silver basically breaking even and selling too early. I’m sure he made big profits trading against the tech funds for years, but it is up to him to disclose that. I must confess to a sense of disappointment, in that if my speculation is correct, I feel let down by Buffett, given his public statements on silver and derivatives. I’m sure that is of little consequence to him. More of a consequence to him is that he lost his silver playing derivatives. The lesson to be learned is don’t lose your silver by getting fancy.

That this is a bullish event for silver is beyond question. Buffett’s silver no longer overhangs the market and, more importantly, the silver wolf pack has lost a prime member, if not its leader (I still lean towards China as the leader, but that is also speculation). Given the current favorable market structure as defined by the COTs, the next rally will not be aggressively sold short by the dealers, as I have contended recently. My new speculation about Buffett only strengthens my contention. If I am correct, it’s watch out above.

MARGIN INCREASES

I would like to comment on the recent round of margin increases for COMEX silver futures. http://www.nymex.com/notice_to_member.aspx?id=ntm235&archive=2006

Long-time readers know that I rarely mention margin changes. That’s because I don’t think that all margin increases are bad and are designed to cause selling by long holders as many claim. Looking at the issue through my former broker’s eyes, I know that margins exist for one reason and one reason only – to protect the broker from unsecured client debits. Margins are increased when it is felt the brokers need more protection and reduced when less protection is needed.

But sometimes margins are used to influence the market. I feel that is the case with the last round of margin increases in silver. What made this last margin increase unusual is that, for the first time in 25 years, the COMEX differentiated margin requirements between the front months in silver (up through the September contract) and the more deferred contract months.

In my opinion, the COMEX has done this for one reason only – they see delivery problems ahead for silver and are attempting to clear out as many hangers-on as possible. This can also be seen in the backwardization that has been developing in the December 2006 and further out contracts of COMEX silver. The COMEX attempted to camouflage their real intent in silver by also making a differentiation in the nearby gold months versus the deferred gold contract months, but any serious market observer knows that is silly in gold, where there is not the hint of a delivery squeeze.

You must understand that all exchanges, including the COMEX, operate and set rule changes for the benefit of their most important members, and not the public at large. In most cases, the most important members are the commercial shorts. These shorts want as little outside pressure on silver deliveries as possible, and that is why they are making it easy and enticing for longs (and maybe even outside shorts) to clear out of the nearbys and migrate to the back months. As a general rule, whenever a financial institution attempts to get you to do something, the prime motive is for the benefit of the institution and not you. Please be guided accordingly.

BARRICKS BLACK EYE

Another development I’d like to mention is the quarterly earnings report by Barrick Gold. As expected, Barrick acknowledged another large gold short derivatives loss. Though this loss was buried deep in the body of the report, the combined first quarter realized and open loss grew to over $5.5 billion. No other entity has ever reported a loss so large.

http://www.barrick.com/Theme/Barrick/files/docs_quarter/2006_Q1_rev2.pdf

The surprise in the Barrick report was the aggressive covering, or buy back, of the gold short position. Fully 25% of the year-end 20 million ounce gold short position was bought back in the quarter, with more since the quarter end. While the first 4.7 million ounces covered in the first quarter cost Barrick $814 million, or a loss of $173 per ounce, the last million ounces bought back after quarter end cost Barrick $386 million, or an astounding $386 per ounce. Aside from selling short at the absolute low in the gold price for the past few years and then buying back at the absolute high, there is no other way to lose that much money per ounce.

The other surprise in the Barrick report was that, even though they booked a big loss in covering some gold shorts, they still reported a profit. This is the financial equivalent of alchemy turning lead into gold. If I had a financial interest in Barrick, I would complain to the SEC and the Financial Accounting Standards Board. Since I don’t have a financial interest, I can only marvel at the creativity of the accountants and lawyers that Barrick employs that can magically turn losses into profits. I just wish I could get them to prepare my tax returns.

One thing I haven’t seen mentioned in the gold community has been the effect Barrick’s buy back has had on the price of gold. That gold has rallied sharply as Barrick has been buying gold is no coincidence. The almost 6 million ounces that Barrick has purchased recently is more than $3.5 billion worth of gold. It’s more than half of what the big gold ETF (GLD) holds. Remember, GLD took a year and a half to buy its gold; Barrick took a couple of months. If anyone has a better reason why gold has rallied sharply, I’d love to hear it.

mmandments.


----------



## crackaton

*Re: SILVER*

Rest of previous post:

NO INCREASE IN SILVER MINING PRODUCTION

One nugget contained in the Barrick report that I wasn’t looking for, was their projection for silver production for 2006. Barrick was the 5th largest company producer of silver in the world last year. http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/agtable.htm. Unless I’ve missed something, the 10 million ounce estimated silver production for 2006 is more than 50% less than the combined Barrick and Placer Dome 2005 production of almost 21 million ounces. I think this is due to the depletion at a number of their mines, most notably the Eskay Creek (acquired when Barrick bought out Homestake Mining).

Combined with the 20% cut back in production at the world’s biggest mine, the Cannington in Australia, announced a couple of weeks ago, it is hard to believe reports stating that silver production is due to increase this year. Not when the number one and number five producers are off so sharply.

THE ETF GAINS

I had planned to write about a number of different issues this week, in response to a large number of e-mails, but I am postponing them in order to deal with two very big silver events – the commencement of trading of the Silver ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) and the sale of silver by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. There is no doubt in my mind that both events are profoundly bullish for silver in the long term.

Since I had written my last article, the Silver ETF (AMEX symbol SLV) has commenced trading. As of the first week or so of trading, it has purchased and holds over 48 million ounces of silver. While it is no secret that I was skeptical that the authorities would approve a security that promised to greatly impact the price of silver, I was wrong. However, I was not wrong in predicting that there would be a big impact on the price of silver. It has doubled in the eight months from the initial ETF filing.

Now that the silver ETF is up and running, where do we go from here? Undoubtedly, the first week’s pace of silver accumulation will cool off, but will continue in time. We have witnessed this pattern in the gold ETF (GLD), namely, spurts and then plateaus in accumulation, but with higher totals a year and a half after initial issuance. There is no reason to expect a different pattern in silver. In fact, one could argue higher proportional accumulation in the silver ETF than in the gold version.

Just like the Great White Shark is said to be the perfect eating machine of the sea, the silver ETF is the perfect silver-eating machine. I say this because the ETF has created a connection between the best investment opportunity in the world with the largest investable pool of money in the world. Heretofore, institutional investors did not invest in silver, for the most part. Very few could deal in futures to take delivery or buy the real thing directly. Now they can, since most institutional investors can deal in stocks, which is the form of the silver ETF.

I believe the world of silver changed dramatically on April 28, 2006, when the silver ETF started trading and opened the silver door to institutional and retirement accounts. It is inconceivable to me that many institutional investors won’t come to grasp the true potential of silver as an investment and their newfound ability to participate in that investment.

Years ago, I wrote an article called "The Silver Challenge" in which I dared the reader to study closely the facts regarding silver and try and not end up buying silver. Those that took the challenge and did buy silver have been, and will continue to be, greatly rewarded. There are many intelligent institutional money managers who are constantly on the prowl for sound investment opportunities. Some number of them will find silver. There are other institutional managers who are already aware of silver’s merits, but have not been able to buy it because it was a metal, not a stock. Thanks to the ETF, silver is now a stock.

COPYCATS

Lastly, and reluctantly, I must once again confront the issue of plagiarism. I don’t find it complimentary or amusing when someone copies my work without approval or citation. I give my knowledge and opinion freely and openly. That does not mean it can be taken and reproduced without attribution for someone else’s monetary benefit. Let me remind those guilty that plagiarism is stealing, and stealing is against every legal, moral and religious tenet known to man. You don’t have to be a Bible expert to know this, just read the Ten Co


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> I put a 32 cent buy order on MMN today, and it missed the mark.
> A retrace to 32.5 fills the Feb 21 gap, and I think that will happen if silver closes below $13.65 tonight as a few of the silver longs may decide to take profits.
> IN MMN's case, the stock at end-Feb was trading at 38cents and silver hadn't even hit $10/oz.  With silver in the mid-high$13 range and MMN at 33cents, it's a steal.
> Although we can never be sure what the market will do, buying MMN tomorrow is a classic "no brainer".



Order now filled.
Gap at 32cents filled.
Ready to go to the races.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Re: SILVER*

Silver  -    Long  Term View -

------------------------------------------


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> I put a 32 cent buy order on MMN today, and it missed the mark.
> A retrace to 32.5 fills the Feb 21 gap, and I think that will happen if silver closes below $13.65 tonight as a few of the silver longs may decide to take profits.
> By the end of May I am tipping silver to have broken above $15 and settled for the duration at prices much higher.  I base this on the probable removal of physical silver from Comex warehouses to satisfy the silver ETF: But I could be wrong.
> IN MMN's case, the stock at end-Feb was trading at 38cents and silver hadn't even hit $10/oz.  With silver in the mid-high$13 range and MMN at 33cents, it's a steal.
> Although we can never be sure what the market will do, buying MMN tomorrow is a classic "no brainer".



MMN trading at 36 cents at moment, giving me a 10% gain on a no brainer in a few days.
Although commodities are precariously high, the medium term view is for more of the same.
For the record, silver's relative strength has not hit the typical highs of its selldown points, so putting on another dollar in a week or so is technically a reasonable probability given the bull run across the metals complex.


----------



## mano

*Re: SILVER*

Hello Gang
my first post so be gentle with me  
I am looking into buying silver. MMN and BSG
Have been following this thread and it seems to be the way to go,But have l left it too late??Thinking of 10k each
I am also looking for a broker , any recomendations?
Or is it better to buy online?
ta mano


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> MMN trading at 36 cents at moment, giving me a 10% gain on a no brainer in a few days.



Closed at 37cents giving a 15% gain in 2 days!
The likelihood of silver closing the month over $15 is exceptionally high.
The probability of MMN reclaiming its former glory at the 45 cent level is similarly high.
However the downside risk after today is mitigated by yesterday's gap filling and, although we are not quite there yet, medium term support is likely to settle around 40cents.
As silver's RSI is not as stretched as gold's, if gold falls of its perch next week, silver has the potential to run a bit longer.
As I post, gold has jumped $2 in a few minute, so if that trend holds, and silver is joined at the hip, we should see silver ingrained on screens above $15 come Monday.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: SILVER*

On line's better when you know what you are doing. If you hve a friend in the game who can set you up, get them to help you. Otherwise do lots of reading and check out everyones web sites.

I hold MMN and it made a nice reovery last 2 days after taking a breather. I think all the bears jumped ship leaving bulls to buy in. Has great potential. Read up about it's project in Texas. 

Having said that, there are people who consider the recent dramatic rise in commodoties to be overdone and the market is ripe for a correction. I'd hate to see you put your 20K into these 2 stocks and they tumble 20+% in a few days. However, some people on this site are very bullish and will say any pullback is a buying opportunity, or even that prices will just keep going up, up and up. 

If you are really keen to invest that 20K perhaps you should think about putting 1/2 in a managed fund and then buy 3-4 different stocks to see how they go. Put MMN and BSG in that group if you like, but there are other stocks in different resources that you might want to consider. 

You should do some more reading and make your own mind up. Or, get a recommendation for a good broker and give them a call to discuss what they can do for you.


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> You should do some more reading and make your own mind up. Or, get a recommendation for a good broker and give them a call to discuss what they can do for you.



Or
Buy MMNO at 17cents on Monday - half the price but twice the risk.
The newbie needs to have hairs on his chest (if I have mis-gendered you, apologies!).
As Macmin's options are already "in the money", it's a relatively safe play in a cleary volatile market.
My advice is to "get in there", or take the soft option and get into funds.
Then again, paper trading carries no risk, but will not put hairs on your chest.
Time for buying MMN cheap was yesterday, tho as kennas notes, look for dips in future if you want a safer entry (what the hell is safe in this ridiculously bullish market that refuses to correct?).


----------



## Sean K

*Re: SILVER*

It's good to be decisive rederob. You should be an Army Officer. 

I might look at those options myself. Silver and gold still climbing as we speak.


----------



## mano

*Re: SILVER*

Thanks kennas for that advice.
I have now made arrangements to speak with a very reputable broker on Monday.He is also recommended by 4 of my aquaintances.
I have spent the last 8 months reading up on the markets trying to get a good understanding of it.Its been slow going but l am getting there.
Now l feel l want/need to do something.
I will continue to read through this forum and learn.
Thanks again
ta mano


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> It's good to be decisive rederob.
> I might look at those options myself. Silver and gold still climbing as we speak.



kennas
Monday should see another retrace in silver-related equities, so MMN and MMNO look like being reasonable targets.
Although I would not compare MMN to OXR ordinarily, go back to OXR's chart and look at the past 6 months: Notice the retrace in February to fill the slight gap of 178.5 to 179cents the previous month.  That's where I place MMN now having filled the 32cent gap during the week.
Here's the kicker: If I am right, MMN's price will double by year's end.
I am content to be only half right.

mano
Until you take the plunge and put your money on the line, you won't understand what this game is about.
If you are a virgin, put out only what you are prepared to lose.  You will understand the consequences and could equally end up presently surprised.


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

Just in case you thought the wheels fell off last night, take a look at where silver is relative to the recent high volatility across the metals markets:


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

Will have to revisit that previous chart as the price of silver has dropped around 10% today.
I said MMN was a no brainer, and it has sucked out my brains to prove it - gordammit! 
My average purchase price is still under 20cents, so I think I am safe tomorrow - but famous last words, eh?
I guess I should ask myself "when is the best time to buy?'"
It's always at a correction, and I broke my rule bargain hunting when commodities were precariously overbought.
Will I do it again?
Yep.
I never know when the market will correct, so when a bargain comes up against the run of play, I jump on it and suffer the consequences.
If I did not think it was a bargain, I would not have bought it.  It does not make sense to think that *a stock must go up after buying * it, so I will see what the next few days bring to determine how much self flagellation to administer.


----------



## nizar

*Re: SILVER*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> I said MMN was a no brainer, and it has sucked out my brains to prove it - gordammit!
> My average purchase price is still under 20cents, so I think I am safe tomorrow - but famous last words, eh?
> I guess I should ask myself "when is the best time to buy?'"
> It's always at a correction, and I broke my rule bargain hunting when commodities were precariously overbought.
> Will I do it again?
> Yep.
> I never know when the market will correct, so when a bargain comes up against the run of play, I jump on it and suffer the consequences.
> If I did not think it was a bargain, I would not have bought it.  It does not make sense to think that *a stock must go up after buying * it, so I will see what the next few days bring to determine how much self flagellation to administer.




Excellent post rederob
its hard not buying into strength sometimes, but with me personally, i always break my own "buy the dips" rule also because im scared the stock will run away from me
maybe its time to adjust your buy orders down for 2mrw

as i personally think this correction may last for a few days or even weeks (like in oct last year), i wont be buying until we are on the way up again. IMO its much easier than catching a falling knife and plus i dont have enough cash to top up 2mrw and then the next day (?) and the next day (?) and the next day (?) trying to buy at the bottom like a champ


----------



## wayneL

*Re: SILVER*

Red,

Just noticed your software there..

Du bist Deutch?


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Red,
> Just noticed your software there..
> Du bist Deutch?



Wayne
Please don't mention the war.
JÃ¥?


----------



## tonyc

*Re: SILVER*


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: SILVER*



			
				tonyc said:
			
		

>




is that bearish or bullish on silver?

thx

MS


----------



## Phillip

*Re: SILVER*

Silver has encountered the first point of resistance in its counter trend rally.

I bought Silver CFD's at 10.03 and sold them last night at 11.45. 

It will likely test support levels in the 10.70(?) region, build a base and have another crack breaking through 11.60.


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> $13.50 breached overnight.
> 45% gain in 2 months
> Hope the lid doesn't fall off any time soon!
> Go Macmin Silver Mine



Silver did fall off its perch.
But it is not dead.
$12 reclaimed overnight after a rapid recovery this week.
MMN's rise in price astonishingly was in advance of these moves in silver prices.
This is the strong time for precious metals and the next 6 months will likely see new highs for both silver and gold.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: SILVER*

Hi Rederob,

MMN has recovered ok with the POS over the past few weeks. Looks like an upward trend although not convincing yet. Broke through .35c but stalled slightly yesterday. Next resistance .40c. 

I have silver down slightly at $12.08 atm, but up on yesterday I think. Hopefully this up trend continues. Looking forward to the next reports out of Texas.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: SILVER*

*Gaining momentum*

0102 GMT [Dow Jones] Silver's recent steady gains, technical momentum indicators suggest it's on track for $12.60 area, say analysts. "I will look for scale-up selling from $12.40 up to $12.90 and on the lower end, buying from $11.85 down to $11.35," says ScotiaMocatta analyst in technical note. Currently $12.06/oz, down 14 cents vs NY close, in line with modest gold, EUR/USD retreat, after peaking at $12.24 overnight, highest since early June, spurred by USD weakness, crude oil rise, Mideast tensions. Breach of $12 also triggered stops, exacerbating gains in relatively low volumes. (JAD)


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

kennas
From September precious metals are purchased in advance of Xmas jewellery demand, so physical offtake ratchets up metal prices.
Around the same time hurricanes storm into the Gulf of Mexico: Oil prices rise and gold is carried higher.
Base metals perk up from September because northern summer holidays and closures come to an end and its full steam ahead on the business/industrial production front.
This concurrence of events fuels prices that might otherwise lag or fall, so even out of favour metals can get dragged north.
I see oil prices as the key to unlocking all the metals from their consolidatory price range: And I see the continuing spectre of demand unsatisfied.
All this bodes extremely well.
For the naysayers, I can only ask that they watch these scenarios play out.
And they may then wonder where they read it all before!


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

Yet another try for silver to recalim its former glory.
What's in store this time?
Can MMN give us clues?


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: SILVER*

rederob, what do you make of the silver chart, bottom of the trend line?. Some analysts say silver will be a better performer than gold.


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: SILVER*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Yet another try for silver to recalim its former glory.
> What's in store this time?
> Can MMN give us clues?




Hi Red, before MMN, what other silver specialist producers are there?

thx

MS


----------



## subi1

*Re: SILVER*

Bolnisi gold should be producing by the end of the year or early next year in Mexico. www.bolnisigold.com.au is their website.


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hi Red, before MMN, what other silver specialist producers are there?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS



MS
I think MMN will be the only dedicated silver producer in OZ.
As subi1 points out, there are listed equities in Oz that have great silver exposure, and Bolnisi is definitely one.
BHP is the largest single miner of silver, at Cannington (Qld).
I recall Kingsgate mined good quantities of silver with its gold, but "recovered" only a small proportion of what was mined.
I believe the silver chart now speaks for itself: $12 seems strong support, and upside to new highs in 2007 seems a very probable event.
My forecast for silver is that it will open into 2008 above $15, which is only a modest 25% increase from this year's entry price.
I tend to err with my forecasts, usually them being too low.


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

Dr Doom
Apologies for missing your previous post.
The chart says "get out of my way".
It's a technical term I learned in Mt Isa when I discovered the biggest bull bar overrules any give way sign.


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: SILVER*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> MS
> I think MMN will be the only dedicated silver producer in OZ.
> As subi1 points out, there are listed equities in Oz that have great silver exposure, and Bolnisi is definitely one.
> BHP is the largest single miner of silver, at Cannington (Qld).
> I recall Kingsgate mined good quantities of silver with its gold, but "recovered" only a small proportion of what was mined.



Silver is also a byproduct of other mining companies. For example, Zinifex produces enough gold and silver at Rosebery (primarily a zinc mine that also produces lead and copper concentrates on site) to warrant recovering it and melting it down on site.


----------



## Flying Fish

*Re: SILVER*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Silver is also a byproduct of other mining companies. For example, Zinifex produces enough gold and silver at Rosebery (primarily a zinc mine that also produces lead and copper concentrates on site) to warrant recovering it and melting it down on site.




WMT used to have good stuff in TAS as well. The operation would be costly and smelly would it not?


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

It's taken almosrt a year to reclaim its former high, but look at this chart and see what it says:


----------



## wayneL

*Re: SILVER*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> It's taken almosrt a year to reclaim its former high, but look at this chart and see what it says:



All it says is it's at the former high. What it does next might have a lot more to "say".

I reckon it wants uppage. But I think most would think the same. Which perversely, could be bearish.

Disclaimer: Long PAASNASDAQ)


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> All it says is it's at the former high. What it does next might have a lot more to "say".
> 
> I reckon it wants uppage. But I think most would think the same. Which perversely, could be bearish.
> 
> Disclaimer: Long PAASNASDAQ)



Wayne
I won't post the 5 year chart.
The long term uptrend is now supported by a recent series of higher lows.
The POS/POG ratio continues to rise.
POG and POS trend, and so does POO and POG: POO has fallen back considerably, while POG has been consolidating and climbing slowly.
Any sustained upward move in POO will carry into POG.
In the next 2 years unless there is a replacement for oil as an energy source, POO should be trading above $100/bbl.
My time frame is longer than that, so any perversely bearish near term dip in POG won't be too much of a worry.

I left out the impact of a weakening greenback, which continues to underpin gold's overall uptrend. 
I hope to be talking to ducati in another thread later this year.


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*

Silver is a long term investment, market is thin so can have wild trades, It may be hit again, but one day gold to silver ratio will be 16 to 1 at least and more likely 8 to 1. or less.  And remember all the gold ever mined in the world still exists silver most is gone. So if one believes what gold bulls say gold will get to then look at those ratio's and imagine the price of silver.
Buy silver bullion and hold don't worry with swings.


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*

Keep reminding people that SILVER does exist, or does it?
A gold bug should always have Silver as an option.
There must be some Silver bugs out there.
When will US$15.00 oz be passed??


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: SILVER*



			
				bean said:
			
		

> A gold bug should always have Silver as an option.
> There must be some Silver bugs out there.



I much prefer the look of silver to gold for some reason.
Seriously considering buying physical silver if there is a correction.

Like you said, silver reserves are being depleted faster than gold. And a lot of new high tec developments seem to consume a lot of silver, so long term the conclusion seems obvious to me.


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

Silver is poised to hit $15 again in months to come.
The 5-year chart shows strong consolidation, with support firmly pegged at $12:


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

I have been accumulating silver for a couple of years from $8 per ounce.  It is about 15% of my investment portfolio and gold 25%.  Perth Mint probably the safest place to buy in the world though I prefer to store it myself.  I buy from A.J. Matthey who have a branch in most AU capitals.    Have been a follower of Robert Kiyosaki's investment ideas (author of Rich Dad Poor Dad et al.) who recently stated that silver at any price below $20 an ounce is a bargain.  Kiyosaki's forcasts from years back have been spot on.  A Jason Hommel who publishes "The Silver Stock Report" (Google it) is very bullish and gives a lot of information and threads to others.    In my own view as currencies, particularly the US dollar, depreciate, and they will soon due to  massive debt,  it may be realistic to see gold hit 10 times its current value and if we look at the ratio of the last jump to silver in 1980 silver will rise exponentially higher.

My humble opinion only and resemblances to fact may be coincidental


----------



## Sean K

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> it may be realistic to see gold hit *10 times its current value.*....My humble opinion only and resemblances to fact may be coincidental



Hooley dooley!!! As in $6700 an oz? I'd like to see that!


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



kennas said:


> Hooley dooley!!! As in $6700 an oz? I'd like to see that!



It's a bit conservative.
POG will hit the DOW number when its in full flight, based on its historical precedent.
So POG at $10k and silver over $100 is only as far fetched as the next recession.


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*

POS will in the next few years get tio a ratio of Gold of 16 to 1  or 8 to 1 now for the bulls on Gold we have all heard many values given as to what gole will reach from US$2,000 to US$10,000
The only thing is a small hicup coming next week and the week after.
I hold physical silver and hold it through up and downs but hold no shares (gold or silver) at the moment.  I am waiting.

But TED BUTLER I think is the best to read.  Jason Hommel a bit overboard with his predictions and tends to get on after what may have been said by others.

But I have about five people in at work who also now have physical siver and it is mainly from what Ted Butler or Jim Pupavla(Financial sence) have said.


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*

Because of my posts on the price of gold being bearish well why not involve Silver.  Why because Silver will be the best metal peformer for this decade.
When to buy not now but soon. I cannot give a bottom because one should take each day as it comes.  Apart from MMN and maybe CQT I would like to know of any other silver producers (or close could mine other metals but silver must be at least 50% of there mining) and no hedging but be up and running within 18 months.  Silver will drop soon but I would like to pick up bargains.  So I would like to research your selections within the next wek or to before silver makes a bottom.


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



bean said:


> Because of my posts on the price of gold being bearish well why not involve Silver.  Why because Silver will be the best metal peformer for this decade.
> When to buy not now but soon. I cannot give a bottom because one should take each day as it comes.  Apart from MMN and maybe CQT I would like to know of any other silver producers (or close could mine other metals but silver must be at least 50% of there mining) and no hedging but be up and running within 18 months.  Silver will drop soon but I would like to pick up bargains.  So I would like to research your selections within the next wek or to before silver makes a bottom.



bean
Silver was at a good buying price yesterday.
I believe this run will take it over $14, $15 and up to $17..
With the usual bumps!
Look at OZ companies with South American production to do your research.


----------



## nizar

*Re: SILVER*



rederob said:


> It's a bit conservative.
> POG will hit the DOW number when its in full flight, based on its historical precedent.
> So POG at $10k and silver over $100 is only as far fetched as the next recession.




And that will put the DOW at..... ?


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



nizar said:


> And that will put the DOW at..... ?




nizar
Can't you do the maths?


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: SILVER*

Would have to agree that Silver is one to watch near term. Chart wise its in a clear uptrend with a near term spike not out of the question.

Fundamentally silver is clearly a tight commodity with reserves diminishing and supply constrained, forward wise  .


----------



## x2rider

*Re: SILVER*

Instead of going hardout on the silver as a straight buy ,why don't you just do a spread trade. 
You might sell gold to the value of say 50k and buy silver to the value of 50k. Whether the price of gold drops and silver does as well is of no consequence it is the ratio between them that you are playing.
The ratio at the moment is around 50.75. If this ratio drops say 49.75 then you are in the money regardless of what the two commodities are doing.
Some reckon that because of the shortage of silver, because most is unrecoverable, this ratio will continue to fall and could get down to under 20. 
Just an easy way to get some exposure to silver and get a little protection as well. 
That said if you are bullish on gold to silver then trade the other way.

 Cool  . 
 Martin


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

If one follows commodities, and does not watch Lars' take on trends, one is not getting a good take on high probability plays:


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

I should add that gold and silver tread a similar path, although silver's percentage change is likely to be stronger than gold's in the present environment.
Lars' above October high for silver sees over 50% upside possible.
That would place gold over $1000 before year's end.
I think a target in the lower $800s is more probable - in other words we should be looking in the 20% range instead while oil prices are being contained.


----------



## constable

*Re: SILVER*



rederob said:


> I should add that gold and silver tread a similar path, although silver's percentage change is likely to be stronger than gold's in the present environment.
> Lars' above October high for silver sees over 50% upside possible.
> That would place gold over $1000 before year's end.
> I think a target in the lower $800s is more probable - in other words we should be looking in the 20% range instead while oil prices are being contained.




Might help to explain why mmn is looking bullish!


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

Borrowed the below chart; like the idea of the cycles shown: We are due for a strong cycle north, and soon.....


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*

Interesting reading for Silver investors
and if you invest in silver and don't read what Ted Butler says each week well why invest in silver?
http://http://www.investmentrarities.com/05-22-07.html

http://http://www.investmentrarities.com/05-29-07.html

Is silver going higher? my shares did not today


----------



## eagleou

*Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?*

Dear All,

I am new here and I want to consult a question:

How can I invest in silver(except physical) in Aussie?

Many thanks.

PS: I am remember the price did reach US$540 since last March. Personally, I thing the bottom might be around US$600.


----------



## ta2693

*Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?*



eagleou said:


> Dear All,
> 
> I am new here and I want to consult a question:
> 
> How can I invest in silver(except physical) in Aussie?
> 
> Many thanks.
> 
> PS: I am remember the price did reach US$540 since last March. Personally, I thing the bottom might be around US$600.



 1 buy silver future contract
 2 buy silver company shares
 3 buy gold company shares whose price positive correlated with silver price


----------



## eagleou

*Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?*



ta2693 said:


> 1 buy silver future contract
> 2 buy silver company shares
> 3 buy gold company shares whose price positive correlated with silver price




Thank you ta2693.


----------



## genus

*Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?*



ta2693 said:


> 1 buy silver future contract
> 2 buy silver company shares
> 3 buy gold company shares whose price positive correlated with silver price




I'm new to precious metals trading also and understand I can invest through these 3 methods. But how do people buy and hold physical gold or silver bullion? What are the pro's and con's in holding physical versus said methods?


----------



## rederob

*Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?*



genus said:


> I'm new to precious metals trading also and understand I can invest through these 3 methods. But how do people buy and hold physical gold or silver bullion? What are the pro's and con's in holding physical versus said methods?



None of the above give you "physical" metal to hold.
Bullion merchants are the way to go for physical ownership.
There are storage costs for "safe" holdings, but these are small compared to the value of the metals.
A better way to collect physical silver may well be through various silverware where there is intrinsic value to the article as well as upside through the metal content.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Hi rederob, You seem to be pretty knoweledgable with regard to Silver..SO a question for you.
I have seen that Gold and Silver move in step with each other.Is this just an historical relationship or are there underlying fundamentals  as to why they are linked?.

I am watching the POG  and POS  very closely as I have taken  some shares  in junior miners in both old and silver.

Cheers


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



Boyou said:


> Hi rederob, You seem to be pretty knoweledgable with regard to Silver..SO a question for you.
> I have seen that Gold and Silver move in step with each other.Is this just an historical relationship or are there underlying fundamentals  as to why they are linked?.
> 
> I am watching the POG  and POS  very closely as I have taken  some shares  in junior miners in both old and silver.
> 
> Cheers



Boyou
They both were "real money" for generations, so I guess there is a strong historical relationship.
More recently I think its useful to simply notice the correlation of movements, while price magnitudes are a different kettle of fish.  For example, this year silver peaked in February and is still a dollar off that high.  While gold peaked in April and is almost back at the same level.
Fundamentally there is a massive "above ground" supply of gold - mostly in bank vaults.  While for silver the "above ground" stockpile is constantly drawn down because silver is an industrial metal, in the main, and has strong consumer demand.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: SILVER*

I posted this analysis on my blog during May, just noticed the Silver thread;

The supply and demand curves for silver as a commodity have had over the last fifteen years extended periods of deficits. This is partly due to the fact that silver supply is in large part a by-product of other metal production, or from scrap.

Silver Supply;
Silver is mined world wide, much as previously noted from polymettalic mines.
Approximately 530 million oz mined each year
Approximately 230 million oz year from scrap [mostly jewelry]

Total production:
Estimated mine production…………………….62 billion oz
Bars & Coins……………………………………..21 billion
Jewelry…………………………………………..20 billion
Fabricated products……………………………21 billion

Silver Demand;
On the demand side, the price for silver is economically insensitive. This is due to the following characteristics of silver;
*price increases in silver can be generally passed onto the consumer
*price increases in silver do not impact profit margins
*world has large inventories of silver [5000 yrs+]

The interesting story with silver, is in the same way as gold, silver is traded as a financial asset. Silver, like gold has during periods of history acted as money or a currency of trade.

Currently silver trades in financial asset forms;
*Physical
*Futures
*Options
*ETF’s
*Common shares of production companies

Volume of trades;
Circa 50 million oz/150 million oz per day
Circa 30 billion oz/year

During the 1990’s this was substantially higher.

The Gold/Silver ratio [basis of trades]
This ratio has through traders lore been mooted to exist and be a profitable way to trade the two separate commodities.

The ratio has varied through history from a low of 14/1 to a high of 100/1
The fluctuations are quite high. Silver has had historically a more volatile price.

Historic Ratio’s:

Year…………………………..Ratio
1687-1777…………………14.5/15.5
1800-1900…………………15.0/17.00

1925……………………….29.7
1926……………………….33.1
1927……………………….36.5
1928……………………….35.3
1929……………………….38.8

1970……………………….20.5
1971……………………….26.6
1972……………………….34.7
1973……………………….38.2
1974………………………33.9
1975………………………36.5

1979………………………27.6
1980………………………29.6
1981………………………43.6
1982………………………47.2

1994………………………72.9
1995………………………74.8
1996………………………74.8
1997………………………67.9
1998………………………53.2
1999………………………55.9

2000……………………..55.9
2001……………………..61.9
2002…………………….67.3
2003…………………….74.2
2004…………………….61.3
2005…………………….61.5

% Changes in price [random years]
2003………………………Gold +12.5%………….Silver +35.9%
2004………………………Gold +7.0%…………..Silver +6.8%

Just as a point of interest, “The Wizard of Oz” was an allegorical tale depicting the political struggle between William J Bryan Vs W. McKinley in the US Presidential race and the issues surrounding the Silver Purchase Act 1890

At about this time there was available an arbitrage available between a Gold dollar, and a Silver dollar that could be bought for $0.60 [risk free profit of $0.40]

Major Holders of Silver;
Berkshire Hathaway [BRK.A]

Valuation;
There are three equally valid methods of valuing silver. The first is on a commodity basis, the second on a financial asset basis and the third on an aggregate ratio basis.

Commodity basis……………………………Value = cost of production
Financial basis………………………………Value = inflation hedge
Ratio basis ………………………………….Value = aggregate ratio over 5 yrs

Ratio value =……………………………….65.0
[$662.0 * 65 = $10.18] thus @ $13.0 overvalued
Inflation value =……………………………$5.38
Commodity value…………………………..[no value calculated yet]

With Silver closing at $13.003/troy oz I would say that silver is currently very overvalued on a fundamental basis [financial] and is in speculative territory.

After I have calculated the *production value* a slightly clearer picture might present itself.

The production value of one of the higher efficiency miners and an aggregate cost basis of some randomly picked silver miners gave a production value of;

Production value = $3.90
Investment value = $5.38
Ratio value = $10.18
Spot price = $13+

Some rather large differences in the prices


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*



rederob said:


> Boyou
> Fundamentally there is a massive "above ground" supply of gold - mostly in bank vaults.  While for silver the "above ground" stockpile is constantly drawn down because silver is an industrial metal, in the main, and has strong consumer demand.




Yes all the gold mined in the world still exists...whereas silver has been used and gone.

POS well doing nicely just sitting under resistence US $13.40 
So when POG next moves up expected silver to take that out.
And in % terms silver will advance at a quicker rate than Gold


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*

ducati
I think your silver analysis is as useful as your views on BHP.
Just as BHP has doubled your price estimates and is still rising, I expect silver will do the same.
Yet again I find your contributions an excellent basis for going long on a contrary position.
Many thanks.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Thanks rederob ,bean and ducati for the response.Really am chewing hard on all the historical info and analysis
Must say though,ducati ,that your final points re the value of silver have thrown me a bit! 



"TheProduction value = $3.90
Investment value = $5.38
Ratio value = $10.18
Spot price = $13+

Some rather large differences in the prices"
__________________

Perhaps the market for precious metals defies logic and confounds figures?

Cheers  :confused


----------



## Enoch

*Re: SILVER*

ducati

Just a quick note Berkshire Hathaway no longer owns silver. At the annual meeting last year Warren Buffet announced he had sold all of his silver.

In addition he mentioned that the investment was perfect, however, he sold too early. This suggests he sold before the price explosion up to $15 last year.

Interestingly the amount of silver he had was roughly the same amount which the Silver ETF was required to store. Maybe they did a deal?

Anyway I would like to know where the price of silver would have ended up if he hadn't sold and after the ETF announcement.

Much higher than $15 I bet.

For those of you who care most of the companies other than BSG/CDE, perhaps Macmin with proven and probable silver reserves are located outside of Australia. This is of course those companies whose primary focus is silver (i.e. excluding the Base metal plays such as RIO and BHP which produce silver as a byproduct to the other metals)

ReaderRob I agree with you big gains may be ahead for Silver particularly since most of the silver ever mined has been used in industry and unrecoverable. Potentially this could make silver perhaps an even better play than its big brother Gold.

In addition research is continually finding new uses for it all the time particularly in the area of water purity, medicine ect. Their even putting silver particles in socks under underware to assist people avoid such fungle infections as Tinea and of course Jock Rot.

Not to metion the potential silver has with electro conductivity.

Short term maybe silver might come back, long term it will probably do well. 

Best regards to all those who have accumulated silver assets.

"Its the honour of kings to search out a matter." 

Enoch


----------



## ducati916

*Re: SILVER*

*et al*

I hadn't realized that BRK.A had sold the silver investment, thank's for the update/correction. [I originally posted the analysis in May on the blog, thus some information is a little out of date]

The variability in prices demonstrates the variability in investment, speculation, inflation and production values that of course will all fluctuate as the varient conditions change.

Thus, dependant upon your classification and timeframes, silver could be a buy or sell.

jog on
d998


----------



## rederob

*Re: SILVER*



ducati916 said:


> *et al*
> The variability in prices demonstrates the variability in investment, speculation, inflation and production values that of course will all fluctuate as the varient conditions change.
> 
> Thus, dependant upon your classification and timeframes, silver could be a buy or sell.
> 
> jog on
> d998



ducati
How wise.
Things change.
And we can buy or sell.
Shall pass on these pearls of wisdom...... over time.


----------



## Enoch

*Re: SILVER*

ducati

rederob

You might already know of this website. If not this is it.

www.silverstrategies.com

Check it out.

Interesting silver chart at the bottom. It shows short term i.e. 2-3 months
a possible lower silver price.

As discussed and as per my previous post long term 2-3 year time frame gains are likely.

"It's the honour of kings to search out a matter"

Regards
Enoch


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*



bean said:


> POS well doing nicely just sitting under resistence US $13.40
> So when POG next moves up expected silver to take that out.
> And in % terms silver will advance at a quicker rate than Gold




Mentioned this july 24th and look what happened it went down shortly after but its sitting back near there again.

Was that the low in the US gold and silver Indexes last night?


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Just got Compareshares newsletter in my inbox.

Interesting explanation regarding Silver's lag behind POG

http://www.compareshares.com.au/zeal19.php


Cheers Ya'll


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*

With the POS breaking out investers will be looking for silver companies/shares.

BHP biggest producers in Aust,  however a large rise in POS will really do very little to there share price.

PURE silver plays in Aust
Count them on one hand.  So when money is looking to find silver companies.

May 2006 when POS last at these prices 
Macmin Silver (MMN) silver was in the .40's
Yesterday .25
At the moment I believe its the only PURE silver producer in Aust.

A few explorers like MAR, CQT, SVL.

Some goldies also have a bit of silver.


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*

The silver rocket has hit town up about 3.5% last night and up another 3.5% so far today


----------



## Flying Fish

*Re: SILVER*



bean said:


> With the POS breaking out investers will be looking for silver companies/shares.
> 
> BHP biggest producers in Aust,  however a large rise in POS will really do very little to there share price.
> 
> PURE silver plays in Aust
> Count them on one hand.  So when money is looking to find silver companies.
> 
> May 2006 when POS last at these prices
> Macmin Silver (MMN) silver was in the .40's
> Yesterday .25
> At the moment I believe its the only PURE silver producer in Aust.
> 
> A few explorers like MAR, CQT, SVL.
> 
> Some goldies also have a bit of silver.




I don't understand mmn. I believe there production costs go up with rising aussie, so maybe not a good bet???

what about bsg,


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*



Flying Fish said:


> I don't understand mmn. I believe there production costs go up with rising aussie, so maybe not a good bet???
> 
> what about bsg,




Yes but so does all commodity producers.
But they are the only true silver play producer.
The silver market is so small that very few companies.
Money looking for a safe haven moves to Gold then also silver.
Money going into silver has to go somewhere.
And there is not many silver shares for that money to go into.

Nothing wrong wrong with BSG they have silver and I did mention some goldies have silver.


----------



## Enoch

*Re: SILVER*

I posted a link earlier to a website with a stack of silver companies on it.

www.silverstrategies.com

One of the companies mentioned on the website Garibaldi has a property adjacent to BSG. If you look at Garibaldi's company website, on the website it quotes the following:

"Limited sampling of previously untested mineralization exposed in recent road cuts along the projection of the most westerly of the regional structures returned gold values ranging from several hundred ppb gold to 5.3 grams per tonne and silver values ranging from 337 grams per tonne to 4,770 grams per tonne."


----------



## Enoch

*Re: SILVER*

Interesting.

4438 views on this thread.

79186 views on the gold price - where is it heading thread.

Imagine where the silver price would be if 5% of the money invested in Gold bullion moved into silver bullion.


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*



Enoch said:


> Interesting.
> 
> 4438 views on this thread.
> 
> 79186 views on the gold price - where is it heading thread.
> 
> Imagine where the silver price would be if 5% of the money invested in Gold bullion moved into silver bullion.




Exactly why I invest in Silver one day when the money flows.  Silver is such a small market.  If someone wants to invest in silver shares.  Look at say how many Uranium shares there are yet they have made multiple gains.

As I have said Australian Silver shares can be counted on one hand.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: SILVER*

MMN is just about the only one I follow.

Had a good day yesty.


----------



## Temjin

*Re: SILVER*

Here is a very interesting commentary on silver. Interview with Ted Butler.

http://www.investmentrarities.com/weeklycommentary.html

The biggest surprise I got out of this is that it seem the commercial are shorting silver in an amount that there are not enough physical silver on the surface of this planet to back on. 

Shocking indeed. Seem there is a possible price shock (in a favourable direction) if this is all true.


----------



## Temjin

*Re: SILVER*

All these talk about gold in the other thread, silver seem to be really under appreciated at the moment. 

I think Silver has far more potential than Gold in the current market climate. While silver is regarded as a commondity because of it uses in various industries, it has also been regarded as a sister of gold for long term value storage. The manipulation in the silver market is so much stronger than gold, and the fundamentals for silver is far stronger than gold as well. 

My belief is that if anyone want to ride the current gold bull market, don't overlook Silver because it will tag along as well but with far better performance. 

In inflated term, silver need to reach US $200/oz to reach it last historic peak.


----------



## BREND

*Re: SILVER*



Temjin said:


> All these talk about gold in the other thread, silver seem to be really under appreciated at the moment.
> 
> I think Silver has far more potential than Gold in the current market climate. While silver is regarded as a commondity because of it uses in various industries, it has also been regarded as a sister of gold for long term value storage. The manipulation in the silver market is so much stronger than gold, and the fundamentals for silver is far stronger than gold as well.
> 
> My belief is that if anyone want to ride the current gold bull market, don't overlook Silver because it will tag along as well but with far better performance.
> 
> In inflated term, silver need to reach US $200/oz to reach it last historic peak.




Agree, I had bought Comex Silver at 14.40, working to add on at 14.10.


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*



Temjin said:


> All these talk about gold in the other thread, silver seem to be really under appreciated at the moment.
> 
> I think Silver has far more potential than Gold in the current market climate. While silver is regarded as a commondity because of it uses in various industries, it has also been regarded as a sister of gold for long term value storage. The manipulation in the silver market is so much stronger than gold, and the fundamentals for silver is far stronger than gold as well.
> 
> My belief is that if anyone want to ride the current gold bull market, don't overlook Silver because it will tag along as well but with far better performance.
> 
> In inflated term, silver need to reach US $200/oz to reach it last historic peak.




I am a silver bull this will not got get many hits except from those that like silver.
So those that do mention silver stocks
At the moment all we want is silver stocks!!!!!!!!!!
What do we have 
MMN
MAR 
SVL

I have others but???

Silver bugs our time is growing nearer...no one realises that we will be the biggest winners


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

For silver stocks you have to add BSG. With its takeover by CDE, happening this qtr, (and the CDE stock will trade on the ASX) it should become within a year or so the biggest primary silver miner in the world, mining about 30m oz Ag/a. Currently BDG + CDE and PJO.V about A$2.5b market cap. Big enough for some institutional money, but still tiny really.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: SILVER*



bean said:


> I am a silver bull this will not got get many hits except from those that like silver.
> So those that do mention silver stocks
> At the moment all we want is silver stocks!!!!!!!!!!
> What do we have
> MMN
> MAR
> SVL



BSG and KMN are predominantely Ag but people think they're Au, especially KMN. Both Mexico though.


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*



kennas said:


> BSG and KMN are predominantely Ag but people think they're Au, especially KMN. Both Mexico though.




KMN... moves in stops and starts will be dormant for a while then explode to the up side.  I always sell before it does but longterm holders a good stock to hold.

BSG... now the interesting thing is CDE its charts should be watched (also (CDE) its longer term charts (10-20 years) if the Gold Bull is alive and kicking more than likely CDE will take out its old highs in a few years
Being a subscriber on a US site a lot of mention of US stocks (naturally)  but CDE is a favorite for trading.  currently breaking out but some expect it to behave like it normally does move a bit higher (US$4.50 - US$ 5.20) and have a sharp pullback (US$3.50) before the true break occurs? A lot may depend on the action this week in POG and POS.

For the chartist POS is in a falling wedge???

For the last month have been trading BSG in relation to the way the US traders are trading CDE.  Its been giving me a % here or there.

To think I first bought BSG @ .17 cents a few years back (Shows buy and hold can work O/K ) 

Another roughie RDM ???

This week in POS May become a raging Bull?  or may become a raging bear on the General Markets which may take the POS and silver stocks down.
To a bullish bottom.  

The US FED meets and the markets are going to move the 'day after' the decision.  The US$ has a bit more to rise?

But long term POS will rise in % terms greater than POG
So those that believe POG will reach US$ 2,000 or more
POS ratio 16 to 1 ?


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*



Enoch said:


> Interesting.
> 
> 4438 views on this thread.
> 
> 79186 views on the gold price - where is it heading thread.
> 
> Imagine where the silver price would be if 5% of the money invested in Gold bullion moved into silver bullion.





I dream of the day 
When it happens people will say we were smart investors.
But we already know we are.
Bought my first bullion bar @ US 4.54 oz

And yes looking at the hits after a post shows that our Bull is nothing which means we still have bargains...Maybe a close above US$20 may bring a few more hits?

Plus Silver is the most volitile thing to play....but its rewards will be the greatest.  (can it hurry up)


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Hey bean. Investors are a bit like Inventors.  

They dream .They have faith in their judgments.And they back them with their own money.I do beleive in Silver also.Have an interesting interest in MMN and sniffing for bullion  

HI HO Silver!!


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*



Boyou said:


> Hey bean. Investors are a bit like Inventors.
> 
> They dream .They have faith in their judgments.And they back them with their own money.I do beleive in Silver also.Have an interesting interest in MMN and sniffing for bullion
> 
> HI HO Silver!!




New investors to Silver can be put of by its wild swings.  Uranium once there was a couple of stocks now!!!!
Silver well they will never be many and a good example is RAU (which is not silver) if the same amount of money just in that one stock moved to a few(well there is not more than a couple any way) silver stocks I would look at a 30% plus gain!!!!! *being in Silver I could be sitting on a 'GOLD MINE"*


----------



## sleepy

*Re: SILVER*

Hi all,

Hopefully I'm not to late to the party.

When I did a 'principal activity search' for 'SILVER'  at ASX website
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...me=&principalActivity=silver&industryGroup=NO
the following companies came up.

Does anyone disagree with the companies listed:

CBH	CBH Resources Limited
DRK	Drake Resources Limited
EXS	Exco Resources Limited
FND	Finders Resources Limited
JML	Jabiru Metals Limited
JUT	Jutt Holdings Limited
MAR	Malachite Resources NL
MMN	Macmin Silver Ltd
PLV	Pluton Resources Limited
SVL	Silver Mines Limited

I would also be interested in learning if anyone is actually holding 
a) any of the above stocks at present 
b) silver stocks outside aussie (i.e., in US, Canada, UK)
or c) if they are holding physical silver (i.e, bullion) instead.

sleepy


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

sleepy..If you read my post ..just a couple back you would see I have MMN.

And I am thinking hard about Bullion.A dealer here in Brisbane will store it in a secure vault FOC..as long as I buy 5Kg .minimum

ON that subject ..do any bullion holders store their Silver under the bed? or in a hole in the ground? ..Funny concept ..Dig it up..then bury it? Vaults sound like the way to go


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Boyou said:


> sleepy..If you read my post ..just a couple back you would see I have MMN.
> 
> And I am thinking hard about Bullion.A dealer here in Brisbane will store it in a secure vault FOC..as long as I buy 5Kg .minimum
> 
> ON that subject ..do any bullion holders store their Silver under the bed? or in a hole in the ground? ..Funny concept ..Dig it up..then bury it? Vaults sound like the way to go





In 03 I purchased my first silver, 15 kg, put it in a plastic bag and buried in the vegie patch in the back yard in a spot identifiable by my wife and a grandson.  I keep it all in a vault now to compy with Super Legislative rules, costs $330 a year and probably worth it.   Still think the garden idea is bullet proof if you pick the right spot.


----------



## DreamSciTech

*Re: SILVER*

Dear All

I just remember that I put a chart on silver on gold forum, which certainly is a wrong place. Perhaps it would be better that I past my chart here.






The data in this chart is updated until December 6, 2007. As can be seen in the lower panel of chart, the  mid- and long-term trend of silver (blue line) is well below the average value of mid- and long-term trend (pink line).

On the other hand, the history did not show the immediate rebounding, and there are only several cases that the blue line stops at this level (-5). So more likely, the price of silver will go down further. 

Is it reasonable?

You can download the data on this chart as well as other indexes here

Have a great week

dreamscitech.com


----------



## Temjin

*Re: SILVER*



sleepy said:


> Hi all,
> 
> Hopefully I'm not to late to the party.
> 
> When I did a 'principal activity search' for 'SILVER'  at ASX website
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...me=&principalActivity=silver&industryGroup=NO
> the following companies came up.
> 
> Does anyone disagree with the companies listed:
> 
> CBH	CBH Resources Limited
> DRK	Drake Resources Limited
> EXS	Exco Resources Limited
> FND	Finders Resources Limited
> JML	Jabiru Metals Limited
> JUT	Jutt Holdings Limited
> MAR	Malachite Resources NL
> MMN	Macmin Silver Ltd
> PLV	Pluton Resources Limited
> SVL	Silver Mines Limited
> 
> I would also be interested in learning if anyone is actually holding
> a) any of the above stocks at present
> b) silver stocks outside aussie (i.e., in US, Canada, UK)
> or c) if they are holding physical silver (i.e, bullion) instead.
> 
> sleepy




Someone posted this link previously, http://www.silverstrategies.com/defaultIE.aspx

PAAS and SSRI are my big cap favourites. (long term invest purposes)

I wish there was a silver companies ETF out there.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> In 03 I purchased my first silver, 15 kg, put it in a plastic bag and buried in the vegie patch in the back yard in a spot identifiable by my wife and a grandson.  I keep it all in a vault now to compy with Super Legislative rules, costs $330 a year and probably worth it.   Still think the garden idea is bullet proof if you pick the right spot.




Hi explod ,Just getting around to a response to this,life's been a bit hectic of late.
Was actually just joking about burying the stash in the yard ..BUT whatever works for you.The Bullion dealer in Bris will store FOC in a bank vault next door.Am thinking of buying a fair few Kg and don't want to have to take a wheel barrow down George St . to stash it in my ute for the trip home!
In fact that's what put me off the idea of bullion ownership ,at first ,till I did some phoning. Next week I'm off to the dealers with my cash. Hi Ho Silver

Cheers


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

I think the Brissie dealer has a bit of a wait for Ag bars, they've just swapped suppliers as the previous one put their mark-up way up. Maybe they've just got a load in. 

The vault in the bank across the road, is ok if it is allocated silver. Eg your silver is named, and you have the bar serial numbers. Otherwise if it is unallocated, it means you have receipt saying you have some Ag, but they could have sold it, or whatever, as very few people would come to redeem their silver at the same time it means the bank doesn't have to keep much on hand. Sort of like what they do with your money! They lend it out again, only problem is if they go belly up, you've lost your silver, whereas if it was "allocated", with specific numbers its yours and can't be lent out sold etc.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Thanks for the tip ,refined silver .The company I refer to is Ainslie Bullion Co.

I will be sure to ask if it is allocated. After all I want to be able to visit with my bars from time to time


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



sleepy said:


> Hi all,
> 
> Hopefully I'm not to late to the party.
> 
> When I did a 'principal activity search' for 'SILVER'  at ASX website
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...me=&principalActivity=silver&industryGroup=NO
> the following companies came up.
> 
> Does anyone disagree with the companies listed:
> 
> CBH	CBH Resources Limited
> DRK	Drake Resources Limited
> EXS	Exco Resources Limited
> FND	Finders Resources Limited
> JML	Jabiru Metals Limited
> JUT	Jutt Holdings Limited
> MAR	Malachite Resources NL
> MMN	Macmin Silver Ltd
> PLV	Pluton Resources Limited
> SVL	Silver Mines Limited
> 
> I would also be interested in learning if anyone is actually holding
> a) any of the above stocks at present
> b) silver stocks outside aussie (i.e., in US, Canada, UK)
> or c) if they are holding physical silver (i.e, bullion) instead.
> 
> sleepy




Hi, all has anyone done more legwork on these? I have many overseas silver stocks, but am trying to reduce overseas holdings as I see too much risk with the chain of custodians holding your stocks, many of whom are up to their neck in the sub-prime mess.

Of course many stocks have some silver. Virtually any zinc/lead miner has some silver as a by product, what we are after is companies where silver is a significant proportion of their business. In my opinion, the following are the main Aus silver companies with SIGNIFICANT silver exposure:

1. BSG - today suspended from quoatation, merging with CDE, should be about the biggest primary silver miner in the world.

2. MMN - silver producer in Qld, other Ag dev and exp. >80% of assets in Ag

3. KMN - Large Au/Ag/Cu developing mine in Mexico - 25% in Ag at current prices. (Also Mb/Cu project in Qld - which while a bonus, would further dilute direct Ag exposure.

4. MAR - small JORC Ag deposit, plus Cu and Au exp projects. 

5. SVL - SIlver explorer - no resources yet.

6. CBH - Zn/Pb miner with some added Ag. Ag maybe approx 10-15% of resources

Can anyone add to this list with details??


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

For overseas silver stocks, here is one the best introductions to companies.

http://www.silverstrategies.com/defaultIE.aspx

Most companies here are 25%-99% silver companies. However, as just mentioned, the chain of custodians needed for overseas stocks puts you much further away from your assets than you want to be, especially in a financial meltdown. Hence be very careful.


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



Boyou said:


> Thanks for the tip ,refined silver .The company I refer to is Ainslie Bullion Co.
> 
> I will be sure to ask if it is allocated. After all I want to be able to visit with my bars from time to time




Yes I know! They seem a good company. They often use a 5kg Ag bar as the doorstop. Seriously!!


----------



## Enoch

*Re: SILVER*

CDE can be traded from today on the asx.

The asx code is CXC.

Any ideas on the most undervalued silver play either on the ASX or TSX?

Some of the Canadian juniors appear undervalued at the moment.

Think there is a lot of tax loss selling after the sub prime debacle.

If Silver holds next year. I think the Canadian Juniors will do well in the first quarter of 08.


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*

CQT may be another for the list???

Silver miners in the US...yes there is there tax time/tax loss selling going on.

POS has held up pretty well...Read somewhere where silver may actually outshine POG in the next advance.  I posted the bullish and bearish numbers for POG...silver if POG does the bullish part has to break US$15
For CXC/BSG   US$4.50 have been told/read at resistence could have a sharp drop back however may break out to US$5.20  It is at the crossroads so next couple of days a critical re POG and POS

Regarding physical silver...I read many years ago can't remember who...said hold at least 10% in physical.  I have about 10-15 %. of my portfolio not silver portfolio.


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

Most leveraged Aus miners - you can't go past MMN - for a producer, unhedged, no debt, soon to be 2moz/a for a fully diluted market cap of $120m , not even the Candian juniors can match that. Problem is its a bit of a dog of a stock. Instead of moving fluidly with the Ag price it languishes for ages, and then suddenly runs. If Ag goes $25 on the next move, I'd expect MMN to 4-fold from here (double its May 06 high)

Other cheap Ag Canadian juniors include ASM.V, CZN.TO, GGC.V, SBB.V and if you want an absulte speccy - try IDLM.PK - very illiquid, but has a 20% royalty on Hecla's Lucky Friday mine, which should start paying in 6-9 months. Hecla had built up a large loss on LF which had to be recouped before the royalty would start to be paid. IDLM has a market cap of $20m, and a lot of land in US's biggest silver district.

Disclaimer: I own all the above mentioned stocks


----------



## Enoch

*Re: SILVER*

Hi Refined Silver.

I looked at Macmin back in 2003 took a large holding in BSG instead. Best decision I ever made.

Candian Zinx looks attractive 3 billion pounds of Zinc and 2.2 billion pounds of lead.

Wonder if you can let me know the exploration potential.

They only have 70 million ounces of silver.

You may know from previous posts that I also own Sabina. Have done so for a couple of years. Its my largest overseas holding.

You have to love the fact that a director of Wolfden (taken out by Zinefex) is also a director of Sabina. Although If Sabina was taken out I wouldn't want it taken out two cheaply given the size of the resource.

I also own Garibaldi, IPT, SRLM, RVM and MTB.

MTB have dropped to about 23 cents Canadian. They have silver assays as follows 5.18m 5258 gpt and 8.53m 2260 gpt. They also have a 50% ownership is the Silver Coyne project with very good gold grades. 

RVM have also fallen a bit. The problem their is the environmentalists don't want the mine to go ahead. It will likely go ahead in the future as the govenment I believe is behind development particularly since it has been demonstrated that with a little funding from Revett the habitat will actually be improved.

Looking forward to the reopening of the Sunshine Mine I think this one also has been a little subdued given the negativity from some of the letter writers. What I like however is management has seemed to have continued about their business even with all the negativity however unjustified it was.

Its good to see this thread getting some attention. I think in the next few years the views and posts on this thread will increase considerably.


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

Hi Enoch,

For CZN.TO all the infrastructure was set by the Hunt Brothers in the late 70s, its 95% ready to go. As far as exploration - only know the resources you mentioned are zone 3 out of 12. So 11 other areas open for exploration once zone 3 starts producing.

I also own SLRM and RVM - which is also incredibly undrevalued. SSRI are as blue chip as you can get in silver companies. TRGD.PK is also very cheap now, it has 3 producing mines, many projects, including one adjoining BSGs and is under $50m MC.


----------



## Flying Fish

*Re: SILVER*

MMN management are bad


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*



Flying Fish said:


> MMN management are bad




Would you care to elaborate on that statement FF?

Gotts say I really dislike this sort negativity without supporting information. 

I am  a holder.

Cheers


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

I agree FLying Fish, unless you give some serious supporting data, your post is a waste of space and not appreciated.

On the positive for Management they've taken a piece of land to a producing mine, less than 1% of all explorers do that, they have done the same with New Guinea Gold - NGG.V, and FNT which they are also involved in has 2.7moz Au, plus 1.5bp of Cu. In my mind thats pretty good management. They understand mining, not like pretty boy internet or ex-financial services companies, who changed their names to jump on the commodities boom, but have no clue about geology or mining.


----------



## Flying Fish

*Re: SILVER*

Really. No announcements of late, and all they ever do is dilute shareholders interests and issue more oppies for themselves.
On top of that there quotes for production of silver were based on an aussie dollar than was in mid to low 70 cents us.


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

I don't have a problem with their announcements. Co's which hype stuff every week generally spend far more time on promotion than doing the business there're supposed to.

Dilution has been minimal lately, you can't bring a project to production without funds, and I'd rather some dilution and no debt and no hedging, rather than no dilution and huge debt and hedging to the banksters.

Re oppies - I also don't particularly like this either, but hard find a company that doesn't do it.


----------



## Real1ty

*Re: SILVER*

I am also a holder of MMN and another of the Silver believers.

There have been some issues recently, and production for the December quarter of the 130,000 oz will not be met.

MMN have a unique product with the powder they produce and although they have had a few issues, i still believe in the company.

As for announcements, what can you announce if there is no news?

I will also mention i bought at .32c so am sitting on a loss but will continue to hold.


----------



## clowboy

*Re: SILVER*

Well I rang the perth mint today to get a price on some silver bullion and they have no stock

LOL


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

One to add to the Silver prospectors.

Sinovus Mining  SNV 

Newly listed (11 Dec.) Prospecting for Silver and Gold in China 
From Company announcements:-

Xiangguang Project  Grades of 238g/t to 331g/t   Ag

Daxing'anling Project Application for 20 Licences covering 1,300 km²

Shares issued at .20 and now at .19. Anyone with any thoughts on this one? Refined Silver? You on this yet? 

Cheers


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



Boyou said:


> One to add to the Silver prospectors.
> 
> Sinovus Mining  SNV
> 
> Newly listed (11 Dec.) Prospecting for Silver and Gold in China
> From Company announcements:-
> 
> Xiangguang Project  Grades of 238g/t to 331g/t   Ag
> 
> Daxing'anling Project Application for 20 Licences covering 1,300 km²
> 
> Shares issued at .20 and now at .19. Anyone with any thoughts on this one? Refined Silver? You on this yet?
> 
> Cheers




Hi Boyou,

No hadn't seen it, will have a look. Everyone has their own criteria for choosing stocks, having lived 4-5 years in Central Asia, in ex-soviet states and next door to china, I am very wary on political risk. Not so much nationalisation, which is a possibility, but more that there is so much corruption here, that everyone takes a piece of the action is anything is profitable, so that I fear there's very little left for shareholders. On the other hand, China will be world's biggest Au producer next year overtaking SA, and has a lot of Ag too. So who know's??????????????


----------



## doogie_goes_off

*Re: SILVER*

Ral1ty - are you still holding MMN at ~20c ? You said:

"I am also a holder of MMN and another of the Silver believers".

Bit scary !!


----------



## Real1ty

*Re: SILVER*



doogie_goes_off said:


> Ral1ty - are you still holding MMN at ~20c ? You said:
> 
> "I am also a holder of MMN and another of the Silver believers".
> 
> Bit scary !!




Yes doogie i am still holding MMN.

Unfortunately i am sitting on a loss with them but will hold for the long term


----------



## sleepy

*Re: SILVER*



clowboy said:


> Well I rang the perth mint today to get a price on some silver bullion and they have no stock
> 
> LOL




Clowboy .. did they say why?
Darn thats where I was hoping to get some and have it stored

sleepy


----------



## clowboy

*Re: SILVER*

Nah,

I didn't bother asking I just chuckled.  I mean one would assume that they where unable to cater for supply as of late?????

Anyway they said that you could still buy some at current prices and pick it up upon delivery.

If you where going to have it stored there im sure there would not be a problem.

Im going to try again today, let you know how I get on


----------



## BREND

*Re: SILVER*

Silver, gold and oil are my most bullish commodities for 2008. Looking to buy some silver if it goes down to US$13.00.


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*

The poor man's Gold.  As POG marches towards US$ 1000
Lets not forget Silver.
March silver is not to far away from suggesting it is about to make a move to above US $ 18


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

Richard Russell of Dow Theory fame is now bullish on silver.

Thats quite a bullish recommendation from such a respected figure for such a tiny market.

"I Like Silver" by Richard Russell
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell011408.html


----------



## Kauri

*Re: SILVER*



refined silver said:


> Richard Russell of Dow Theory fame is now bullish on silver.
> 
> Thats quite a bullish recommendation from such a respected figure for such a tiny market.
> 
> "I Like Silver" by Richard Russell
> http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell011408.html





  It's all in the timing???



> Elsewhere, another day and there is no real shock from the news of another new commodity high. Into European trading and silver hit a 27-year high as gold pushed to fresh record highs above USD 900 per troy ounce.


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



Kauri said:


> It's all in the timing???




Yes, very nice timing in fact. Neglecting the past couple of days which may be just testing the breakout, (if we get back down there), here is a couple of slightly longer term silver charts.


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

This was a post from GATA re the silver ETF (SLV) in the US. ETFs might seem easy but its NOT the same as physical.

-----------------------------------
Possible SLV Inventory Swap Explanation

Hi Bill - 
I think the 20,000,000 oz SLV inventory shell game that transpired on 12/31/07 can be easily explained IF we examine who is involved and what their motivation is. 

First of all the "Custodian" of SLV is JP Morgan (I could probably stop here for folks at GATA). JP Morgan provides all the info to the iShares Trustee on the silver stored by themselves and the "Sub-Suctodians" for the "Authorized Participants" (note that no SLV share holders own any silver). This silver can be stored anywhere in the world and has only "limited audit" requirements. The silver can also be swapped, pledged, leased and loaned without violating the prospectus. It is more than likely that most of the SLV silver is held in COMEX warehouses. That would give the perception of much more physical silver than is truly available. 

It is obvious that the 20M oz deposit and withdrawal was clear maneuver to "paint the tape" on the Year End physical silver held at SLV...but why? Since SLV is only a derivative of the price of silver there would be no reason to bump the amount held for the SEC or other regulators. The prospectus clearly points out that the amount of silver held and the price of silver have no real relevance to each other in SLV. There are no requirements to increase or decrease the amount held in trust...it is a perception issue that enforces the "value" attributed to the shares of SLV. 

So who would want (or need) a quarterly or annual official verification of real Physical Silver being held by a party? 

Only one group that I can think of....THE CFTC! 

The first "pertinent surveillance question" the CFTC must address in their oversight of the silver market is "Are the positions held by the largest long trader(s) greater in size than deliverable supplies not already owned by such trader(s)?" It's their main concern. 

http://www.cftc.gov/opa/backgrounder/opasurveill.htm?from=home&page=mktsurveilcontent 

"Physical-delivery commodities. Futures contracts that require the delivery of a physical commodity are most susceptible to manipulation when the deliverable supply on such contracts is small relative to the size of positions held by traders, individually or in related groups, as the contract approaches expiration. The more difficult and costly it is to augment deliverable supplies within the time constraints of the expiring futures contract's delivery terms, the more susceptible to manipulation the contract becomes." 

Pertinent surveillance questions for such markets include: 

Are the positions held by the largest long trader(s) greater in size than deliverable supplies not already owned by such trader(s)? 
Are the long traders likely to demand delivery? 
Is taking delivery the least costly means of acquiring the commodity? 
To what extent are the largest short traders capable of making delivery? 
Is making futures delivery a better alternative than selling the commodity in the cash market? 
Is the futures price, as the contract approaches expiration, reflecting the cash market value of the deliverable commodity? 
Is the price spread between the expiring future and the next delivery month reflective of underlying supply and demand conditions in the cash market? 
By adding 20M oz on Dec. 31st JP Morgan and the other "Sub-Custodians" were proving to the CFTC, by way of the SEC end of year filings from SLV, that they had access to 170M oz of physical silver that could be delivered against their net short position on the COMEX if delivery were required. Once the end of year silver amount for SLV was officially recorded the silver was "withdrawn" and apparently put to use somewhere else (delivery, loan, lease, etc.) 

The good news is that the fact that this maneuver was needed by the silver manipulators tells me 2 things: 

1) The CFTC is finally examining the large traders for rule violations. 

2) The fact that silver manipulators only borrowed the silver for a day means they needed that 20M to patch another hole in the dyke. 

Anyway you slice it, the unprecedented, decades long silver manipulation is on it's last legs. 

The silver ROCKET will truly be a sight to behold! 
Bix


----------



## BREND

*Re: SILVER*

I think almost time to short silver futures.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Silver looks to have started a run up.

Kitco spot price $16.09 up 1.19%  ....I know one swallow does not a summer make,but it's a start!


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



BREND said:


> I think almost time to short silver futures.




Why do you think that Brend?

If a statement is to be made should it not be accompanied by your reason.   Unqualified statments have no value. The idea of our discussions is to share information from which we may gain understanding from each other.  In my humble opinion.


----------



## bean

*Re: SILVER*



Boyou said:


> Silver looks to have started a run up.
> 
> Kitco spot price $16.09 up 1.19%  ....I know one swallow does not a summer make,but it's a start!




I posted an article on the Gold thread from Ted Butler re this current sell off and he said that it just creates a great buying opportunity.
Hope POG has alsmost finished correcting and POS can move up to US $17
this coming week


----------



## Sean K

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Why do you think that Brend?
> 
> If a statement is to be made should it not be accompanied by your reason.   Unqualified statments have no value. The idea of our discussions is to share information from which we may gain understanding from each other.  In my humble opinion.



Yes Brend, your post has not only no value, but potentially negative value to the forum. Members are expected to post analysis here on the forum to back up their claims. Future posts such as that will be deleted without notice. Cheereo!  kennas


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

Shorting silver even more so than gold, is trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller, gonna get squashed fingers, win pennies if lucky, but worse, miss out on any serious wins because you had no fundamental clue about one of the biggest bull markets of our lifetimes.

Interesting, BHPs Cannington mine is still closed, cos of 2nd worker death in 13 months. Terrible for the family, and our prayers are with them. They have failed to stop a govt report being released into their safety standards.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23077998-3102,00.html

It is also the biggest silver mine in the world >40m oz per year, Over 8% of world supply. Thats not going to help the price stay low, while it stays shut.


----------



## Real1ty

*Re: SILVER*



refined silver said:


> Shorting silver even more so than gold, is trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller, gonna get squashed fingers, win pennies if lucky, but worse, miss out on any serious wins because you had no fundamental clue about one of the biggest bull markets of our lifetimes.
> 
> Interesting, BHPs Cannington mine is still closed, cos of 2nd worker death in 13 months. Terrible for the family, and our prayers are with them. They have failed to stop a govt report being released into their safety standards.
> http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23077998-3102,00.html
> 
> It is also the biggest silver mine in the world >40m oz per year, Over 8% of world supply. Thats not going to help the price stay low, while it stays shut.





Thanks for that feedback RS.

That is very sad for the families as you said but could have some implications for prices, that were looking good anyway, depending on how long the closure is of course.

They are producing a lot of Silver pd, so an extended period of closure, will certainly have a supply effect, at least shortish term.


Cheers


----------



## BREND

*Re: SILVER*



kennas said:


> Yes Brend, your post has not only no value, but potentially negative value to the forum. Members are expected to post analysis here on the forum to back up their claims. Future posts such as that will be deleted without notice. Cheereo!  kennas




Hey hey, hold your guns! I have been giving geniuine advices all along. 

Its a seasonal effect. Precious metals price always come down in end Jan - Feb, because strong demand from year end had started to cool down.

However I do agree that 2008 is the year for precious metals, but you still need to find a good entry level.


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



BREND said:


> Hey hey, hold your guns! I have been giving geniuine advices all along.
> 
> Its a seasonal effect. Precious metals price *always* come down in end Jan - Feb, because strong demand from year end had started to cool down.




"Always" is a bit of silly word to use for seasonals in PMs. A 7-8 yr chart of this PM shows this is not always the case.


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: SILVER*

Does anybody know if there is an Aussie ETF for silver? 

Cheers


BT


----------



## BREND

*Re: SILVER*



refined silver said:


> "Always" is a bit of silly word to use for seasonals in PMs. A 7-8 yr chart of this PM shows this is not always the case.




I had shorted Comex Silver at US$15.89.


----------



## BREND

*Re: SILVER*



refined silver said:


> "Always" is a bit of silly word to use for seasonals in PMs. A 7-8 yr chart of this PM shows this is not always the case.




I shorted 1 lot of Comex Silver at US$15.89, today its trading at US$15.48, earning USD2,050 in just 1 week. Not so silly har...:


----------



## Temjin

*Re: SILVER*



Bush Trader said:


> Does anybody know if there is an Aussie ETF for silver?
> 
> Cheers
> 
> BT




Nope, there isn't one here unfortunately. 

The SLV, DBS or DBP is your best bet, only through the US Stock Exchange though. 



BREND said:


> I shorted 1 lot of Comex Silver at US$15.89, today its trading at US$15.48, earning USD2,050 in just 1 week. Not so silly har...:




I hope your stop loss is sensible too especially when so much volatility is going on right now.  How much were you prepared to risk in that contract? Hope it's around 1-2% of your equity. heh


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



BREND said:


> I shorted 1 lot of Comex Silver at US$15.89, today its trading at US$15.48, earning USD2,050 in just 1 week. Not so silly har...:




Didn't get stopped out when it rose to well over $16 after your post, or did you put the short on days after your post?

I didn't say a short-term short was silly, if s/t trading is your game, I said saying silver always goes down Jan/Feb was silly as it doesn't.


----------



## BREND

*Re: SILVER*

No stops for me on silver, its only 1 lot.

Intends to buy copper tonight.


----------



## BREND

*Re: SILVER*

After hearing of interest rate cut by Fed, I took profit on silver. And then bought Comex Copper and Mini Dow Jones.


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



BREND said:


> After hearing of interest rate cut by Fed, I took profit on silver. And then bought Comex Copper and Mini Dow Jones.




Was there any profit left? By 9.22am NY time when the news of the cut hit, Silver was between 15.70 and 15.80, (after backtesting the breakout as I suggested with charts a few days ago on this thread.)


----------



## BREND

*Re: SILVER*



refined silver said:


> Was there any profit left? By 9.22am NY time when the news of the cut hit, Silver was between 15.70 and 15.80, (after backtesting the breakout as I suggested with charts a few days ago on this thread.)




Yes, bought back at 15.78, profit is US$539.08.


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



BREND said:


> Yes, bought back at 15.78, profit is US$539.08.




Well done! Tough way to make a living though


----------



## BREND

*Re: SILVER*



refined silver said:


> Well done! Tough way to make a living though




 I had also long cotton and took profit on 2 year Treasury Bonds.


----------



## Enoch

*Re: SILVER*

Ron Paul calls for Gold and Silver to back the US $.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWyygiyPbdA


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Finally we seem to be on the way.    Gold is now at an all time high.  Silver needs to more than double from here to do the same. What a bargain.


----------



## Enoch

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Finally we seem to be on the way.    Gold is now at an all time high.  Silver needs to more than double from here to do the same. What a bargain.




I agree with you that silver is heading up. However just wondering how high the silver price would have gone without the hunt brothers trying to corner the market?


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Well we have finally cracked the $17 mark.   Has been a tough resistance to crack.   Willl be interesting to see where to from here.   Strong breaks in silver often lead gold uplegs too.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: SILVER*

gold futures are lower *following a massive sell order in the silver pit, 25mn oz,* that cracked silver futures down to $16.79.

Cheers
......Kauri


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

Silver also had a new 27yr intraday and closing high today of $17.47. 

Not everything is going down at the moment. At some stage the commodity based equities WILL reflect the prices of their underlying resources and play a massive catch-up.


----------



## ocgunner77

*Re: SILVER*

Given the recent gains in Silver, why have the share prices of both CXC and MMN continued to slide? Any thoughts?

Btw - am new to the silver game but hold in gold stocks; mainly juniors. Based on what I've read though, the gold/silver ratio may correct soonish, with this year possibly helping it along its way. My main concern is whether to go with a big producer like CXC or speculate with MMN.


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: SILVER*



ocgunner77 said:


> Given the recent gains in Silver, why have the share prices of both CXC and MMN continued to slide? Any thoughts?
> 
> Btw - am new to the silver game but hold in gold stocks; mainly juniors. Based on what I've read though, the gold/silver ratio may correct soonish, with this year possibly helping it along its way. My main concern is whether to go with a big producer like CXC or speculate with MMN.




I think unless they are a so called bluechip ( some aren't that blue more a tinge of ) , and they're up and running , selling a product , they'll all just suffer the Dec-March duldrums . The last few years you could set your clock by it . It's just a market sync thinglybob that every trader/investor has to become acquainted with .
The spec world is one built on promises , those that can deliver get the plaudits , the rest cop ....... Get round to the cyclicals and you can time " roasts " to it .

I go back on all the promises first and see who has delivered , then try to get in sync with the share ones after .


----------



## ocgunner77

*Re: SILVER*



ithatheekret said:


> I think unless they are a so called bluechip ( some aren't that blue more a tinge of ) , and they're up and running , selling a product , they'll all just suffer the Dec-March duldrums . The last few years you could set your clock by it . It's just a market sync thinglybob that every trader/investor has to become acquainted with .
> The spec world is one built on promises , those that can deliver get the plaudits , the rest cop ....... Get round to the cyclicals and you can time " roasts " to it .
> 
> I go back on all the promises first and see who has delivered , then try to get in sync with the share ones after .




Thanks for the thoughts ithatheekret - much appreciated. Will do some more research but it looks likely i'll go with CXC at this stage. Apparently they'll have a new silver mine up and running in Potosi Bolivia very soon. Its a coincidence that I've actually been to that part of Bolivia last year and actually visited a huge silver, lead and zinc mine that apparently helped prop up the Spanish empire for a few hundred years! Looks like they believe there's a lot more where that came from...


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



ocgunner77 said:


> Given the recent gains in Silver, why have the share prices of both CXC and MMN continued to slide? Any thoughts?
> 
> Btw - am new to the silver game but hold in gold stocks; mainly juniors. Based on what I've read though, the gold/silver ratio may correct soonish, with this year possibly helping it along its way. My main concern is whether to go with a big producer like CXC or speculate with MMN.




If I can't decide between 2 stocks, 2 bob each way has always worked out well. Often the one I thought would move first or highest wasn't the one.


----------



## roland

*Re: SILVER*

Hi Guys,

I posted this in the CXC thread, but is probably more appropriate here.



> Here is an interesting article regarding the renewed interest in Silver for things such as ID cards, medical dressings etc.
> 
> The loss of demand in Silver due to the waning of the chemicals for wet photography has kept Silver in surplus etc...
> 
> The full article is from Mineweb, http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=47936&sn=Detail




An interesting part of the article states that a lot of miners are not really into Silver, but it is a lesser thought of by-product to other mining activities. So I suppose as metals like Gold and Platinum continue to draw increased mining attention, then we will have more Silver - purely as a by-product.


----------



## roland

*Re: SILVER*

mmm, has Silver run a little too hard over the last 2 months:




If the chart represented another of my stocks (I wish) then I would be seriously considering taking profits.

Kitco go on to add further commetary, http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/feb222008.html



> Does this mean silver has topped and this rally-run is over? Not necessarily as we’ve broken major resistance at $17.70 and some overnight and further out contracts touched above $18.00. If silver can fly to $18.50 resistance it would appear the top might be intact. On the other hand, it could sell back to and support at $17.70; the price of former resistance for next mild ABC correction.


----------



## Temjin

*Re: SILVER*

It's now at $19.29/oz as of typing and still climbing! Very volatile as well since the prices seem to fluctuate alot on my screen right now..ohhh..there's 19.32....****...19.33...hahah 

GRRR, bad luck always fall into me. I was looking to add positions and was deciding between gold and silver. Even though I was more bullish in silver, the technical didn't look as good as those in gold. So went for gold instead. And there silver goes to the moon. 

All indicators show it's well overbrought, but no sign of a top..maybe it will reach the psychological $20 before stopping. Wonder how would it affect its sister gold?


----------



## Santoro

*Re: SILVER*



Temjin said:


> It's now at $19.29/oz as of typing and still climbing! Very volatile as well since the prices seem to fluctuate alot on my screen right now..ohhh..there's 19.32....****...19.33...hahah
> 
> GRRR, bad luck always fall into me. I was looking to add positions and was deciding between gold and silver. Even though I was more bullish in silver, the technical didn't look as good as those in gold. So went for gold instead. And there silver goes to the moon.
> 
> All indicators show it's well overbrought, but no sign of a top..maybe it will reach the psychological $20 before stopping. Wonder how would it affect its sister gold?





True, silver is definitely on a run....who are the key silver players.....MMN moved up today was wondering whether this was worth a look at with holdings in Malachite Resources and Frontier Resources....any opinions out there


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: SILVER*

I'm out, gone para, maybe even short now?


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

Well, thats $20 well and truly cracked.

Uncle Festivus, Check the recent Plat, Soybean and Minneapolis Wheat charts to see how far some of these can run, before you whack any shorts on.


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: SILVER*



refined silver said:


> Well, thats $20 well and truly cracked.
> 
> Uncle Festivus, Check the recent Plat, Soybean and Minneapolis Wheat charts to see how far some of these can run, before you whack any shorts on.




Hi do you know where to get good up to date history price charts of the commodities you mentioned above?

Thx

MS


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



michael_selway said:


> Hi do you know where to get good up to date history price charts of the commodities you mentioned above?
> 
> Thx
> 
> MS




I'm not trading futures - don't have time. INO have reasonable ones, I think a few threads recently have asked for charts on related commods and a few answers have been given.


----------



## kransky

*Re: SILVER*

http://cbotdataexchange.if5.com/DataEOD_F_Chart.aspx?symbol=C/F.CBOT

try that.. not the best but its something.. :/


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: SILVER*



refined silver said:


> Well, thats $20 well and truly cracked.
> 
> Uncle Festivus, Check the recent Plat, Soybean and Minneapolis Wheat charts to see how far some of these can run, before you whack any shorts on.



Yes, maybe a bit premature for a short, getting close though, just watching now.


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, maybe a bit premature for a short, getting close though, just watching now.




Read the post on the COT commercial failure I posted. Could be an interesting event just starting to happen in silver. It was up another 50c yesterday.


----------



## Enoch

*Re: SILVER*

Author of Rich Dad Poor Dad has big predictions on silver.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=FOKn7tiUMyc&feature=related


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: SILVER*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, maybe a bit premature for a short, getting close though, just watching now.




Hope you went short Festivus!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: SILVER*



MRC & Co said:


> Hope you went short Festivus!




Yes, it was just getting too extreme for me, a healthy consolidation required maybe. So far, not much in it, only 100c range or so, support around 1950 holding so far......


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, it was just getting too extreme for me, a healthy consolidation required maybe. So far, not much in it, only 100c range or so, support around 1950 holding so far......




If you did, hope you got in and out quick!!!

Like I said, could be something interesting happening in silver which bamboozle all who rely on TA without FA understanding. (FA means fundamental analysis!)


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: SILVER*



refined silver said:


> If you did, hope you got in and out quick!!!




I reckon!

Looks like the commodity bull is still going to kick along despite this global slowdown!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: SILVER*

Listen up kiddies! Doing the rounds of the local (Sydney) bullion dealers today, getting some goss etc, apparently Perth Mint can't source enough silver to satisfy demand, with a wait of a few weeks at present. Not sure if it's widespread or just limited to Perth Mint bullion bars or coins, but it sounds like a real shortage happening.
Anyone else having trouble buying/sourcing silver?


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Listen up kiddies! Doing the rounds of the local (Sydney) bullion dealers today, getting some goss etc, apparently Perth Mint can't source enough silver to satisfy demand, with a wait of a few weeks at present. Not sure if it's widespread or just limited to Perth Mint bullion bars or coins, but it sounds like a real shortage happening.
> Anyone else having trouble buying/sourcing silver?




Well the rise in silver of 90% since last August speaks for itself.  I am very pleased to have my blocks salted away.

Could not believe it when my local bullion dealer, last week (you would think they would remain aloof to customers) believes the recent correlation with the historical Dow chart could be close to the mark for gold of between $10,000 and 50,000per oz.   If silver goes back to 15 to 1 parity I'll be up there to those Blue Mountains of yours for a drink Uncle.  In fact we'll meet at Star City and I'll show you my little charting system for roulette.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Some alarming statistics on PM shortages projected for the near future.
In the article the author writes about re-cycling Platinum from roadside dust,which has been lost from catalytric converters

Quite a few other PMs mentioned.Anyone heard of Hafnium? Apparently it's use in Computer chips might see it run out by 2017.

http://www.science.org.au/nova/newscientist/027ns_005.htm


----------



## imagineer

*Re: SILVER*

spoke to dealer in Brisbane 2 weeks ago reckoned he was very busy and that a lot of sales coming in since $19  .... I wonder do the dealers hoard at times?

stock was available in all sizes up to 15kg door stop.
I am going to Sydney next week to pick up some that has been in an allocated account, was going to drop in rather than phone ahead, out of curiosity.

Keep the faith

Neil


----------



## metric

*Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?*

i rang ainslie bullion in brisbane today, and was told there is no silver till may, hopefully. 

 silver is a rare commodity. it is a precious metal, and an industrial one. there is less silver in the world than gold. a breakout in the price of silver has always depended on a physical shortage of the metal. today, that is becomming a reality. +61 7 3221 0500 is the ph of ailnslie bullion. ask them for some silver, any silver, any quantity. you cant get it. till may, if they are lucky. (they wont even quote you a price!!!!!)  DYOR....


below is an article by ted butler, which he posted on silver-investor today.

TED BUTLER 

March 24, 2008


Almost all of my articles over the past several months have cautioned about the possibility of a sharp sell-off, due to the historically large concentrated net short position of the largest traders in COMEX silver and gold futures. I wasn’t sure we would get a sharp sell-off or when it might come, but if we did get one, I was certain as to its cause. The 48-hour, $4 silver sell-off and $100 gold sell-off occurred for one reason and one reason only - the big shorts yanked the rug out from under the tech fund longs. Again.

Just for the benefit of newer readers (as longtime readers already know this), the tech funds are large pools of investment money that buy and sell futures contracts on every commodity based solely upon price, or technical, signals. They buy on the way up and sell on the way down, as moving averages are penetrated in either direction. They have no interest in the commodity itself, nor its value or supply/demand fundamentals, just the price action. In other words, the tech funds buy and sell many tens of millions of ounces of silver, for example, with no concern about the metal itself. All the tech funds care about is price movement and trying to capture as much of a price trend as they can. (I am not offering a value judgment of their behavior, just an explanation). 

The dealers, or large commercial traders (mostly big banks), also know how the tech funds operate and always take the opposite side of whatever the tech funds buy or sell as counterparties. In my opinion, the dealers rig the market by colluding with one another against the tech funds. They do this by withholding their collective bids and offers at opportune times, namely, when they know the tech funds are about to react to a major moving average price signal. This is precisely what occurred in the 48-hour price massacre in gold and silver.

This collusion among the dealers against the tech funds is as illegal as the day is long. It has the effect of setting the price of silver (and other commodities) without regard to real world fundamentals. This is why I have petitioned the CFTC and the exchange regulators for almost 25 years. But I’ll save that story for another day. Today there are more pressing issues.

The sharp sell-off has resulted, in my opinion, in the cleansing out, or removal, of most, if not all, of the technical fund leveraged long positions in silver and gold. I think the amounts come to 20,000 contracts (100 million ounces in silver), and 75,000 contracts in gold COMEX futures (7.5 million ounces). This is my analysis, but we will have to wait until this week’s COT Report is issued to verify the actual figures.

The important thing is that, if the tech funds have, in fact, been largely liquidated by the dealers, then the reason for a potential sharp sell-off has also been eliminated. If one were cautious about being fully-invested in silver because of the possibility of a sharp tech fund sell-off, there is little reason to maintain such caution. Certainly, if anyone held off buying silver because of anything I had written about a potential sell-off, he or she should hold off no longer. Lower prices from here are not to be feared, as they will only strengthen the bullish case.

In truth, it was somewhat easier to analyze the COTs years ago, as the buying point set-ups took weeks, if not months, to develop. This permitted an analyst the luxury of time in deciphering the state of the market. But 24-hour electronic trading on the COMEX has changed all that. Since there has there been no change in the COMEX’s dominance on the day to day pricing of silver and gold, the round the clock trading capability has drastically shortened the time necessary for the dealers to ambush the tech funds. Never have they done it in as short a time span as what they just completed.

But it is not just the suspected clean-out of the tech funds that suggests to me that caution about buying silver should now be tossed to wind. There are other issues that are hard to ignore. I get the strong sense that everything may be falling into place for the real upside explosion in silver. In fact, I think the clean-out of the tech funds, which was compressed into such a short time frame, is directly related to those other issues. It’s why the sell-off took place.

One of my long-term tenets was that there would be an inevitable shortage of silver at some point. I know that sounded preposterous to many at the time I made such statements. Further, since the big dealer shorts were very much involved in the day to day world distribution and supply business, they would necessarily have some advance inkling of when the silver shortage would commence. I then asked myself what I would do, if I were them, when I got the signal that the shortage had arrived? 

The only plausible answer was that, in that event, they would position themselves in the most effective and efficient way as possible for the certain coming price rise. That would mean one thing - orchestrating a large price decline on the COMEX. That would generate as much tech fund selling as possible, and enable the dealers to buy back as many contracts as they could and covers as much of their short position as possible. I think that is what has just occurred. 

As I have written recently, there are unusual patterns that strongly suggest that the silver shortage may be at hand. The delays of silver deliveries into the big silver ETF, SLV and the inability of the US Mint to keep up the sudden and persistent demand for Silver Eagles are two important and visible clues. Currently, there are many reports of widespread tightness in many wholesale and retail silver outfits. 

The investment rush for many forms of retail silver and the subsequent depletion of local dealer inventory comes as a result of the initial unprecedented demand for Silver Eagles. The unexpected demand for Silver Eagles, starting in November. It kicked off a rush to buy other retail forms of investment silver, such as rounds, small bars and bags of U.S. silver coins. 

Since the Mint could not supply sufficient quantities of Silver Eagles to the investing public, many eager buyers took what forms of silver were available, rather than wait for new Eagles to be produced and delivered later. There should be no doubt that my good friend and mentor, Izzy, kicked off the whole shebang with his article extolling people to buy Silver Eagles. (A new article by him appears at the end of this piece).

What does a shortage in silver mean? In a word, everything. If the initial clues of a silver shortage get transformed to the industrial silver users and large investors, in terms of increased physical demand for 1000-ounce bars, the industry standard, then say good-bye (and good-riddance) to the silver manipulation. The big dealers can sell unlimited quantities of manipulative paper silver contracts created from thin air, but they can’t sell real 1000 oz bars unless they have them. If they don’t have the real goods and there is a surge in demand for real bars, the jig is up. That’s why I encourage you to insist on securing the serial numbers of every 1000 oz bar held in storage for you

The fact that there is unprecedented demand for silver at precisely the same time as a sharp and sudden sell-off in the price, should confirm to even the most obstinate skeptic the existence of a silver manipulation. So clear is this evidence of manipulation, that there is no longer any credible public denial of it. Now only the CFTC and the NYMEX contest its existence, as they must at all costs.

Finally, an often repeated message for gold-only investors. If you own no (or little) silver, and have insufficient capital with which to invest in silver currently, please switch some gold into silver. You must clearly see the evidence of a growing silver shortage. The clues and reports of shortage are, most emphatically, silver specific. There is no such shortage in gold, nor will there ever be, in my opinion. That’s because gold is not industrially consumed to the extent of silver. That does not mean gold can’t soar in price. In fact, I hope it does, as it will underscore the value of silver. But your common sense should tell you that a precious metal in shortage must climb more sharply in relative value, compared to a precious metal not in a shortage, especially when the shortage-prone metal is so undervalued to begin with.

No one reading these words has any hands-on experience in dealing with a potential shortage of silver. That’s because the world has never experienced a shortage of silver. There is nothing in the specific history of silver to guide us to expected price behavior in a shortage. The closest examples we can draw upon involves the price action of essential commodities that are rationed by natural disasters, like ice or gasoline when a hurricane knocks out power for a week or two. With such a potential silver shortage possibly at hand, coupled with the recent intentional sell-off on the COMEX, it is time to be all in.

to continue, click on link
http://www.investmentrarities.com/weeklycommentary03-24-08.html


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?*

Just another bunch of idiots who deride speculators anytime something falls then go about ramping the same so their speculation pays off.


----------



## metric

*Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?*



Trembling Hand said:


> Just another bunch of idiots who deride speculators anytime something falls then go about ramping the same so their speculation pays off.




not sure what you mean TH?


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?*

Any fall is manipulation by take your pick... hedge funds/PPT/Local dealers/Hot Money/Colluding funds and on and on.

But a rise is only ever because of fundamentals and the dumb finally noticing the true value.


----------



## metric

*Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?*



Trembling Hand said:


> Any fall is manipulation by take your pick... hedge funds/PPT/Local dealers/Hot Money/Colluding funds and on and on.
> 
> But a rise is only ever because of fundamentals and the dumb finally noticing the true value.




so you dont believe silver is being manipulated?


----------



## Purple XS2

*Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?*

If I can be forgiven for posting a slightly off-topic query:

The ASX offers stocks which more or less mirror the price of gold (eg 'GOLD') as an alternative to the posse of miners (explorers and producers).

Is there any parallel in silver? I presume there's no bullion stock, in which case what are the best stocks to shadow the running price of silver in world markets? 

I'd prefer to avoid exotic 'financial products'; futures, CFDs and all that. :bad:

Tx.
P


----------



## metric

*Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?*



Trembling Hand said:


> Any fall is manipulation by take your pick... hedge funds/PPT/Local dealers/Hot Money/Colluding funds and on and on.
> 
> But a rise is only ever because of fundamentals and the dumb finally noticing the true value.





sorry i misunderstood you. 

you just dont care that silver is manipulated..


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?*



Purple XS2 said:


> If I can be forgiven for posting a slightly off-topic query:
> 
> The ASX offers stocks which more or less mirror the price of gold (eg 'GOLD') as an alternative to the posse of miners (explorers and producers).
> 
> Is there any parallel in silver? I presume there's no bullion stock, in which case what are the best stocks to shadow the running price of silver in world markets?




CXC

thread here
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=263993


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?*



metric said:


> sorry i misunderstood you.
> 
> you just dont care that silver is manipulated..




The game is to be on the stronger side whatever your time frame is. But complaining when something falls and blaming manipulation is hypocritical.

How much of the rise are you going to blame on the manipulation and give your money back to the market because it was "manipulation"????

WOW thats freaky. I'm in another thread.........Whoooo


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

very unusual massive after hours trades last night on 3 of the biggest silver co's. Hecla, Couer, and Silver Standard. After riding them down through the day, someone managing to cover on large volume.


----------



## explod

*Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?*



Trembling Hand said:


> CXC
> 
> thread here
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=263993






My fav is MMN, Macmin Silver, situated west of Brisbane and recently began producing.    Worth checking out.   I do not hold at present but watching


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: SILVER*



refined silver said:


> very unusual massive after hours trades last night on 3 of the biggest silver co's. Hecla, Couer, and Silver Standard. After riding them down through the day, someone managing to cover on large volume.




How do you figure that they were a short cover?


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



Trembling Hand said:


> How do you figure that they were a short cover?




If you check HUI short positions, these 3 stocks have nearly largest short positions of the index, so its highly likely, given the recent sell off.


----------



## drillinto

*Re: SILVER*

In search of more silver

http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/physical.html
By Jim Otis, 24 March 2008


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Time to brush the dust off with silver up over 3% last night.  

Interesting on Monday US time David Morgan of Kitco said the Funds would push silver down on Tuesday and warned you can't go against that.  Looks like the interest was greater than the funds.   

Interesting the next few days as strong moves by silver usually indicates US$ to drop and of course gold usually follows.   Maybe the Aus$ will hit parity?


----------



## oldblue

*Re: SILVER*

Good move in the price of silver last night. Closing New York at USD18.


----------



## flixington

*Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?*



explod said:


> My fav is MMN, Macmin Silver, situated west of Brisbane and recently began producing.    Worth checking out.   I do not hold at present but watching




You still watching? I'm a watcher too, have been watching it go down for a while. A the time of writing its 10c... 

I just don't understand the price of silver and the SP of this stock. Why the tank? I'm thinking its just the jitters, is there something I've overlooked? Texas mine looks quite profitable considering the price of silver.... 

I like the leverage on this mine ....*greed*

PS: Thinking about buying a small position. Just to see where it goes.


----------



## explod

*Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?*



flixington said:


> You still watching?
> 
> I just don't understand the price of silver and the SP of this stock. Why the tank? I'm thinking its just the jitters, is there something I've overlooked? Texas mine looks quite profitable considering the price of silver....
> 
> I like the leverage on this mine ....*greed*
> 
> PS: Thinking about buying a small position. Just to see where it goes.




It has support at this level from mid 2005.   Many investors in silver are long time players and are aware of industry price management.  Check out Jason Hommel's webpage for a picture.  He is a bit radical though.

For myself I would wait for an increase in price and volume before making a move.   On the moves in silver last week that may not be too long.    This is a small but good working mine in my view.


----------



## refined silver

*Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?*



flixington said:


> You still watching? I'm a watcher too, have been watching it go down for a while. A the time of writing its 10c...
> 
> I just don't understand the price of silver and the SP of this stock. Why the tank? I'm thinking its just the jitters, is there something I've overlooked? Texas mine looks quite profitable considering the price of silver....
> 
> I like the leverage on this mine ....*greed*
> 
> PS: Thinking about buying a small position. Just to see where it goes.




They started production a few months ago, but have had many problems and are still not close to projected production levels. Hence the huge price decline.

Their last update addressed showed their plans to sort out these problems, but they not there yet.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

*Re: SILVER*

Silver is cruising and most of the silver stocks are flaccid. I don't understand, is it that MMN and others just aren't promoting themselves properly?


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



doogie_goes_off said:


> Silver is cruising and most of the silver stocks are flaccid. I don't understand, is it that MMN and others just aren't promoting themselves properly?




Its not just silver. Gold stocks and oil stocks also, especially juniors are at their most undervalued level compared to their underlying commodity since 2000. The reasons are: 

1. Credibility problems - many juniors including MMN haven't been able to match claims made about development and production timelines.

2. Financial crisis -stifling funding for projects

3. Aversion to risk - good juniors with good projects are currently mistakenly labelled high risk

4. A very large short position against PM juniors at least held by funds.

The result is that juniors are most undervalued in 8 years. 

Patience, grasshopper!


----------



## Enoch

*Re: SILVER*

For those who are bullish on Silver

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=45097


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

It seems investment silver is incredibly tight now and has been getting tighter for a few months. 

Kitco and Perth Mint are out, AGR Mathey just closed silver operations, while having a large amt of silver on loan from Perth Mint. Hommel asks if its a $500m silver default? (I certainly don't agree with all Hommel writes but most of his info here is fairly well documented and just joining the dots.)

http://silverstockreport.com/2008/nadler.html

The US Treasury has also suspended the minting of silver eagle coins, and so on. Investment silver is only around 10% of the total silver market, but if this shortage rolls over into other areas it must finally start to affect price.


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*

Another factor I haven't seen written about, yet is bullish for silver prices, is that crashing base metal prices will curtail the supply of silver since 70% of world silver supply is produced as by-products of other metals, especially zinc.  

Four Australian miners have closed zinc mines in the last three months! INL being the latest.

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story.php?/1/66267/Falling-zinc-price-claims-another-mine-


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: SILVER*



refined silver said:


> Another factor I haven't seen written about, yet is bullish for silver prices, is that crashing base metal prices will curtail the supply of silver since 70% of world silver supply is produced as by-products of other metals, especially zinc.
> 
> Four Australian miners have closed zinc mines in the last three months! INL being the latest.
> 
> http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story.php?/1/66267/Falling-zinc-price-claims-another-mine-




Hi great article, thanks

At one stage Zinc was darling, now its not....



> Falling zinc price claims another mine
> 8-September-08 by AAP
> 
> Sydney-based Intec Ltd's managing director and chief executive officer Philip Wood says the return on metals is at an all-time low in Australia.
> 
> Zinc and lead prices have collapsed as parts of the world enter recession and China boosts its own zinc production, he said.
> 
> Mr Wood said today's closure of the Hellyer Zinc Mine in Tasmania's north-west is further evidence of a patchy resources boom.
> 
> "If you are into bulk commodities like iron ore or coking coal, or the energy or gas sectors, then things are very buoyant," Mr Wood told AAP.
> 
> "But if you are in the metals sector then things are far less consistently buoyant, particularly metals like nickel and zinc. They have been very weak.
> 
> "The Australian dollar prices for these metals, relative to the mine site operating costs, are lowest in the history of mining in Australia.
> 
> "Intec's is the latest in a series of such announcements by Australian zinc miners.
> 
> "Sharply falling metals prices combined with significantly increased mine site costs have rendered their zinc production projects uneconomic.
> 
> "We have no choice but to suspend operations in order to preserve cash flow."
> 
> Mr Wood said the Lennard Shelf mine in Western Australia, the Endeavour and Perilya mines in NSW and the Australian ASX-listed AIM Resources's African operation had all been similarly affected.
> 
> "All of these closures have been announced within the last three months in response to the rapid weakening of the zinc price," he said.
> 
> Intec was about a quarter of the way through extracting zinc/lead concentrate from the tailings at its Hellyer mine.
> 
> Mr Wood said about 50 mine workers and sub-contractors would be out of work as the mine was put on a care and maintenance footing.


----------



## Reealjrd

*Re: SILVER*



refined silver said:


> It seems investment silver is incredibly tight now and has been getting tighter for a few months.
> 
> Kitco and Perth Mint are out, AGR Mathey just closed silver operations, while having a large amt of silver on loan from Perth Mint. Hommel asks if its a $500m silver default? (I certainly don't agree with all Hommel writes but most of his info here is fairly well documented and just joining the dots.)
> 
> http://silverstockreport.com/2008/nadler.html
> 
> The US Treasury has also suspended the minting of silver eagle coins, and so on. Investment silver is only around 10% of the total silver market, but if this shortage rolls over into other areas it must finally start to affect price.





Yes friend for the time silver is very tight. If willing to trade in it have proper analysis about it.


----------



## normanstyles

*Re: SILVER*

even though MMN shares have drop drastically (along with everything else) you doubt little movement in the near future?


----------



## normanstyles

*Re: SILVER*

and if they are stopping the minting of silver and the same quantities are not being produced due to the closure of zinc mines etc. then wouldnt that drive the prices up? supply/demand? im new to this so.....


----------



## oldblue

*Re: SILVER*

Found a reference to this article elsewhere. Message seems to be that the PoS is driven by and amplifies the PoG. Sounds reasonable to me.

http://www.compareshares.com.au/zeal64.php

Worth a read by silver buffs IMO.


----------



## Temjin

*Re: SILVER*

Wow, just look at the buyback spread right now for silver bars!

http://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/Pricesheet.pdf

It's positive over base value by almost 6%. Demand must be unprecendanted. 

Gold is obviously still underloved with available stock and low spread.


----------



## moXJO

*Re: SILVER*



Temjin said:


> Wow, just look at the buyback spread right now for silver bars!
> 
> http://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/Pricesheet.pdf
> 
> It's positive over base value by almost 6%. Demand must be unprecendanted.
> 
> Gold is obviously still underloved with available stock and low spread.




One kilo silver bars were selling on eBay for about $640. Ainslie were some of the worst shonks I ever dealt with they are probably ripping people off that are buying from them in this current environment.


----------



## Temjin

*Re: SILVER*



moXJO said:


> One kilo silver bars were selling on eBay for about $640. Ainslie were some of the worst shonks I ever dealt with they are probably ripping people off that are buying from them in this current environment.




Actually, I just gave them a ring and they are asking $615 for 1kg silver for immediate delivery and soon will only take delayed deliverys. 

goldbullionaustralia is worse, asking $660 for immediate and $570 for 15 weeks delay. 

ausbullion, none at all until Feb 2008. (15 weeks approximate too) 

But yeah, ebay prices are more accurate at this point of time.

It's crazy at current base value, over 20% spread! Might as well buy physical backed ETCs and then take deliveries later when spread is less...if that would happen. Too much emotion right now in terms of grabbing every single physical bars out there...


----------



## grace

*Re: SILVER*

Any ideas how much a 0.999 silver troy ounce medallion should be worth in excellent condition?


----------



## moXJO

*Re: SILVER*



grace said:


> Any ideas how much a 0.999 silver troy ounce medallion should be worth in excellent condition?




 To buy 1 oz Kookaburra   prob $30 - $35  

If you want to sell it check up some eBay prices for what it is roughly going for, as sometimes you can squeeze a few more dollars out of em.


----------



## thooh

*Someone help me PLS.....*

I would like to buy some silver bar or block. I call Ansilee and they told me they have 1kg and 13kg silver bars and blocks. I would like to find out why 1kg bar don't have a series number on the bar but the 13kg bar have the series number. Besides, they told me the mint stamp for the 13kg block is "BHAS" mint stamp with the 999 and the series number on it. Can someone tell me "BHAS" is what company ot mint? I am a new invester last and I only have a perth mint silver and gold bars. IS the "BHAS" a oversea mint or company?

Thank you


----------



## arco

*Re: SILVER*

BHAS = Broken Hill Associated Smelters


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

Well, I'm very bullish on Silver for this year.  

Once we see the US treasury bonds blow up (some time in March April this year) and yet another US housing market bubble to burst this year (not sub prime loans this time), and a whole heap of US Bank defaults due to over $90 trillion  _*"US Bank Derivative Exposure"*_ (old news).  

And now a trillion or more stimulus package for the USA later in the month that is going to hurt the US dollar AND not to mention that the FED interest rate is down to 0 - 0.25%.   And of course over 8 Trillion dollars to bail out dead company's.   AND,  commodities to be going up in price earlier than most non-commodities stocks.

Yea,  that is a very good reason to be Bullish on Silver.

It is all fundamentals really in the end.

However.  It has been proven that the central banks have been shorting Silver and Gold and continue to do so.  Most of that info can be found on _*GoldSilver's Michael Maloney interview Videos*_ 


Buy up the Bullion while its cheap.  Then go for the Gold mine shares (that are still operational)

Also, I'm expecting the central banks to short Silver and Gold to a new low possibly around the time the bond markets goes down around march  (may or may not happen, well seee).  That's if the COMEX has not already defaulted in February 09.


Remember, the banks use ETF and other contracts to short Silver and Gold.  Stay away from the Silver paper, and trade Silver Futures to help profit from last years losses (if any)


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

It amazes me how the Gold and Silver price was effected by the US Dollar (and that includes all other world currency) when it was finally taken off the Gold standard.

This _*Chart*_ shows how the price of Gold and Silver was effected by this move in 1971, due to the deflation of the Dollar.  And of course the volatility of the markets got worse over time as well, but that's why we can make a faster return. And also the reason why more and more people become Millionaires or Billionaires over the years.


----------



## lsj84

*Re: SILVER*

After listening to Dr Marc Faber and Jim Rogers I'm quite scared by what might be coming. 

I'd like to buy some plaine tradable physical silver to protect myself. 

But I'm aware that 1oz of 09 koala silver coin by perthmint is sold for 38 AUD, about 20 dollars higher than the Kitco quote. I understand physical metals are priced higher than paper metals. but is it really by this big margin? 

Does this mean that at the moment I can only purhcase silver at such high price in Aussie term?

who are your preferred dealers where you guys purhcase precious metals?


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



lsj84 said:


> After listening to Dr Marc Faber and Jim Rogers I'm quite scared by what might be coming.
> 
> I'd like to buy some plaine tradable physical silver to protect myself.
> 
> But I'm aware that 1oz of 09 koala silver coin by perthmint is sold for 38 AUD, about 20 dollars higher than the Kitco quote. I understand physical metals are priced higher than paper metals. but is it really by this big margin?
> 
> Does this mean that at the moment I can only purhcase silver at such high price in Aussie term?
> 
> who are your preferred dealers where you guys purhcase precious metals?




For 12 months now I have been buying Australian 1966 round 50cent pieces.  Most dealers have them or you can (and I have) buy on ebay.  They are 80% silver or general rule three coins to an ounce of silver.  You can still pick them up for about $6 each which is good value in my view.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

With all the focus on Gold movement ,it might be timely to acknowledge silvers up trend too.Currently sitting at around $16.00
Explod, wondering if you could give an opinion on the trend .It seems to be more or less in  lock step with gold..which ,I believe is the norm.

And where are you, Refined Silver? ..some words?


Cheers Ya'll


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Boyou said:


> With all the focus on Gold movement ,it might be timely to acknowledge silvers up trend too.Currently sitting at around $16.00
> Explod, wondering if you could give an opinion on the trend .It seems to be more or less in  lock step with gold..which ,I believe is the norm.
> 
> And where are you, Refined Silver? ..some words?
> 
> 
> Cheers Ya'll




Funny you should ask, was just a few minutes ago looking at the silver price holding firm at the close.  As usual gold being pushed down but silver holding up.  Usually a bullish sign for both.

Although not spoken of much the ratio silver/gold is way out of whack and I expect the best returns will come from my physical silver holding in the longer term.    Some have said that the ratio could go to 5/1 with the poor mans gold, hard to get your head around a return like that if gold was to go up another 300% as some suggest.  

The fundamentals and action on the gold threads are relevant to silver in my view.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

*Re: SILVER*

Will be interesting to see if Macmin silver can come out of administration - was the best silver only project on the market.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



doogie_goes_off said:


> Will be interesting to see if Macmin silver can come out of administration - was the best silver only project on the market.




Now that is amazing, only a few weeks ago talking to a mate we said we should get a few together and buy the entire project.  A good silver price rise would make it very attractive indeed.

Cumorn, lets get a group to task on it.   Would be welcomed by the locals, Texas I think the place is called has died since the mine closed and I know an uncle living on the gold coast who would throw a heap at something like that.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Thanks for the response ,Explod. Any idea when silver and gold were at that 5/1 ratio?...must have been awhile back.
Just doing the sums ..if that was the case today ..gold would be only $80.00..or ,conversley silver at around $200.00  ...know which I prefer!



"Cumorn, lets get a group to task on it. Would be welcomed by the locals, Texas I think the place is called has died since the mine closed and I know an uncle living on the gold coast who would throw a heap at something like that."

And your last post is nice and cheerfull.I held a few MMN ..hope they can rise from the ashes.. and your uncle is  interested. 

Cheers Ya'll


----------



## refined silver

*Re: SILVER*



Boyou said:


> With all the focus on Gold movement ,it might be timely to acknowledge silvers up trend too.Currently sitting at around $16.00
> Explod, wondering if you could give an opinion on the trend .It seems to be more or less in  lock step with gold..which ,I believe is the norm.
> 
> And where are you, Refined Silver? ..some words?
> 
> Cheers Ya'll




Been pretty busy lately. Hopefully have a bit more time now for a little while.

Thoughts? Silver has risen much more than gold this year, but also fell more last year.

Silver is more leveraged than gold (on both up and downside).

The ratio of gold:silver in earth's crust is approx 1:17 and historically gold has been 15-17 times the silver price. This ratio is out of whack currently and many other factors such as silver being used for industrial purposes as well, meaning that there is more gold stock in the world than silver, means the ratio may come even lower than the historical average. 

Finally, I think we are very close to breakouts in Au and Ag to new highs.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: SILVER*

Heres SLV, the silver iShares ETF, already broke out, now a test or pullback....might be a good place jump on again...I will be watching this closely.

Cheers,



CanOz


----------



## weatherbill

*Re: SILVER*

If they can keep the global economy up, silver will catch up to gold for industrial demand increases and that ratio will close a little more.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Thanks for the input R S and others

Looks like the breakout will be a prolonged excersize ,after last nights falls.

Patience ,Patience

Cheers Ya'll


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Time to boot this thread in the bottom again 

Just checked KitcoWorld Market..Have only been watching silver for a couple of years..so is this unusual?..all other PMs down and Silver up 2%...hope my copy/paste comes out legibly........

Start of a trend??



 GOLD  	08/03/2009  	05:15  	953.80  	955.00  	

-0.70


-0.07%
Silver Charts 	 SILVER 	08/03/2009 	05:15 	14.20 	14.25 	

+0.29


+2.08%

Platinum Charts 	

 PLATINUM
	08/03/2009 	05:15 	1207.00 	1213.00 	

-2.00


-0.17%
Palladium Charts 	 PALLADIUM 	08/03/2009 	05:07 	260.00 	265.00 	

-2.00


-0.76%


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



Boyou said:


> Time to boot this thread in the bottom again
> 
> Just checked KitcoWorld Market..Have only been watching silver for a couple of years..so is this unusual?..all other PMs down and Silver up 2%...hope my copy/paste comes out legibly........
> 
> Start of a trend??




I've been seeing lots of reports that Silver has been heavily shorted buy the Big Banks around the world.

They say that you can short more Silver than you can Buy long Silver contracts.

Perhaps the Banks have stoped shorting Silver for a short while?  Or are they now buying as much Silver as they can.  Time will tell.

Rumours about China demanding the USA to pay T-Bill debt in Yuan instead of payment in USD is lurking about now.  

Strange times to come yet


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: SILVER*



electronicmaster said:


> I've been seeing lots of reports that Silver has been heavily shorted buy the Big Banks around the world.
> 
> They say that you can short more Silver than you can Buy long Silver contracts.




FYI,

That is an astoundingly uninformed bit of drivel.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

"That is an astoundingly uninformed bit of drivel"

So please shine your light ,TH. Give us reason to believe your statement.We await your wisdom. But eschew your attitude! 

Cheers Ya'll


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: SILVER*

For every 1 futures contract opened short there MUST be someone on the other side long.

You cannot have 1 contract sold short with out exactly the same opposite position by someone else.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Thankyou..why didn't you write that in the first place?

I am here for many reasons..one is to sort the teachers from the technophiles...which are you?

Cheers Ya'll


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



Trembling Hand said:


> For every 1 futures contract opened short there MUST be someone on the other side long.
> 
> You cannot have 1 contract sold short with out exactly the same opposite position by someone else.





Here is the source of the information.




Perhaps it is about limits


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: SILVER*



electronicmaster said:


> Here is the source of the information.
> 
> Perhaps it is about limits




Just cus it comes from a dude with a nice suit and a yank accent don't make the incorrect correct.

Short contracts = Long contracts. Always.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



Trembling Hand said:


> Just cus it comes from a dude with a nice suit and a yank accent don't make the incorrect correct.
> 
> Short contracts = Long contracts. Always.




Agreed.

If one person sells 2 contracts, can two people buy one each from the person that sells the two?


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: SILVER*



electronicmaster said:


> Agreed.
> 
> If one person sells 2 contracts, can two people buy one each from the person that sells the two?




Yes of course but it doesn't change the equation of,

# of contracts sold short = # of contracts bought long.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yes of course but it doesn't change the equation of,
> 
> # of contracts sold short = # of contracts bought long.




But it may if the regulators move in as indicated.

Get that bit, 2 of the banks in the US alone hold most of the short contracts and if they had to deliver they could not, the amount of silver required does not exist


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yes of course but it doesn't change the equation of,
> 
> # of contracts sold short = # of contracts bought long.




Opps.  that line I wrote was not written very well.  And misleading.


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> But it may if the regulators move in as indicated.
> 
> Get that bit, 2 of the banks in the US alone hold most of the short contracts and if they had to deliver they could not, the amount of silver required does not exist






Explod it would be a truly peaceful and beautiful world if religion stayed out of politics and if the blindly biased gold/silver bugs got an education in the field they profess to be experts in.

Truly no idea about the function of futs,

Open interest NEVER EVER NEVER EVER = amount of deliverable in ANY underling derivative. Commodity, interest rate, FX or equity. It is not a CONSPIRACY. Its how derivatives work.

(oh if OI = deliverable it is purely luck, random falling of numbers)


----------



## artist55

*Re: SILVER*

Hi, I'm new to this forum, but have been following silver for several months now.    I have been looking at various forums, but in particular I pay a lot of attention to 100orbust's commentaries on Agstackers.  He gives the best explanations of charts and predictions that I have found.  He says that silver will go to US$19.50 and then drop back to $12.50 or $13.00 before taking off again.  

Of course he talks US dollars so it doesn't always work the same way with Aus dollars, but if I want to short silver from 19.50 (when it gets there) to $13.00 it seems the only way is to go with a US ETF such as ZSL.  Has anyone had experience with this before?


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: SILVER*

Chinese State Run CCTV piece on Silver Bullion


----------



## projack

*Re: SILVER*

Can anyone tell me how to put up the embedded youtube video here?


----------



## wayneL

*Re: SILVER*



projack said:


> Can anyone tell me how to put up the embedded youtube video here?




Use the code as per the example below.

Insert the alpha-numeric code at the end of the youtube url


----------



## projack

*Re: SILVER*

Thanks


----------



## projack

*Re: SILVER*


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Thanks for this projack...very good to see a savvy guy like Kyosaki spruking the potential for silver

I have been buying bars for a couple of years now...waiting for the big boom! 

Cheers Ya'll


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Boyou said:


> Thanks for this projack...very good to see a savvy guy like Kyosaki spruking the potential for silver
> 
> I have been buying bars for a couple of years now...waiting for the big boom!
> 
> Cheers Ya'll





Yes silver is the stuff and is where my own concentration has been, due particularly to the out of whack ratio of 70 to 1 gold.  There have been times when it has gone to 15 to 1 but as with Kyosaki due to coming scarcity this appears a very exciting dynamic for silver buffs.

Maybe we should be giving this thread more prominence than the gold thread.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Explod,...just checked the spot on Kitko.Silver up 1.8% after a good move up overnight in New York market..about 3%

Get the feeling the feeling somethings about to happen with the Silver/Gold ratio?..about bloody time too!

I just bid for a 1 kilo Perth Mint bar on E Bay ..at $30.00 below spot...I am feeling lucky.

Good luck to the silver believers.

Cheers Ya'll


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

As POS continues to climb,here is an article I found on another important use for the metal. 

Help Silver by Letting Silver Help You

By: Warren Bevan



-- Posted 6 October, 2009 | Share this article | Discuss This Article - Comments: 1 Source: SilverSeek.com 

It’s a well known but often misunderstood fact that silver is being, once again, increasingly used in medicinal or purification applications.  The recent reports of the H1N1 virus, more commonly , but falsely, known as swine flu (stock up on cheap pork while you can!) spreading at rates far faster than anticipated got me to thinking about how to help fight the flu if contracted, without relying on medical professionals.

          Normally I would dismiss these types of flu’s as, as harsh as it sounds, mother natures way of killing off the weak, that is if it is indeed an incarnation of mother nature and not a man made flu, but that’s a whole other ball park that I won’t touch on.  But the reports of the majority of it’s victims being strong middle aged individuals increased my alert level.

          Silver is once again taking up it’s former role as an antimicrobial agent.  For the majority of the first half of the 1900’s silver was used in place of antibiotics.  In the 1940’s that use diminished as drug companies developed and sold their new money making creations.  According to Jeffrey Ellis at the Silver Institute;

                        “Use of silver for medical applications prior to 2005 was largely limited to topical anti-infective preparations using silver sulfadiazene and silver nitrate. Globally this accounted for less than 50,000 troy ounces of silver.

Since then, beginning first with wound dressings containing silver, the use of coatings containing silver on medical devices such as on stethoscope diaphragms and on catheters, and lately the use of silver coatings on sinks and other plumbing fixtures for hospitals and other patient treatment centers, and on use of silver particles on medical textiles such as surgical gowns, it is now estimated that medical use of silver is 200,000 troy ounces globally. Use of silver is likely to grow in response to efforts to minimize the incidence of hospital acquired infections.”

          This quadrupling will continue into the future, albeit likely at a slower rate of growth, but silver is already in short supply and this growing and important application will be a major key to silver’s future price as it grows more and more precious.

          As with most things, overuse is not recommended and eventually an immune system will develop tolerance for it requiring more and more of the substance until it has next to no effect at all.  I’ve personally long avoided taking medicine except the odd pain killer for headaches when there’s work to be done, with the view that I would save medicine for when I really needed it and was much older.

           Colloidal Silver could be the answer.  I am not a medical practitioner or recommending anything at all, just trying to inform that there may be other viable options.  While the promotion of colloidal silver as a medicinal application is illegal in the US, that does not mean it does not have merits.  I won’t go into the mishaps government agencies have committed in the drug regulation field, but I have, and always will, prefer to find a natural remedy regardless of if my government calls it “medicine” or not.

          While colloidal silver has mixed reviews with in vitro (test tube) tests and no clinical trials performed using in vivo (in living organisms) tests I still have faith that colloidal silver could help fight off a major infection or flu.  From what I know colloidal silver is not to be taken as a drug or vitamin, but as signs of a serious contraction arise as a more serious preventative measure.  If taken as a daily supplement tests show that it can cause argyria, an irreversible blue or grey discoloration of skin.  Wouldn’t want to end up like the Tin Man.

          The fact is that silver is being used in WHO approved water purification applications, medical clothing is being made with silver nano-particles for disinfectant purposes as well as medical equipment being imbedded with silver.  Even washing machines are now using silver nano-particles.  Fridges, sinks and soon whole kitchens will use silver as a disinfecting agent.  When that day comes the old greasy spoon will once again be a safe sport to venture.  Bacteria, nor viruses can live when it comes into direct contact with silver.  Silver alters the attacker’s DNA, effectively suffocating it. 

          The goal of this article is to get you to educate yourself and make an informed decision based on your findings, not what someone tells you you should do.  Why not pick up a bottle of colloidal silver, it may just save your life.  At the least it will slightly increase silver usage and make your silver more valuable.

          In my free, nearly weekly newsletter I include many links and charts which cannot always be viewed through sites which publish my work.  If you are having difficulties viewing them please sign up in the left margin for free at http://www.preciousmetalstockreview.com/ or send an email to warren@preciousmetalstockreview.com with “subscribe” as the subject and receive the newsletter directly in your inbox, links and all.  If you would like to subscribe and see what my portfolio consists of please see here.

Until next week take care and thank you for reading. 

Warren Bevan

If you found this information useful, or informative please pass it on to your


----------



## condog

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Yes silver is the stuff and is where my own concentration has been, due particularly to the out of whack ratio of 70 to 1 gold.  There have been times when it has gone to 15 to 1 but as with Kyosaki due to coming scarcity this appears a very exciting dynamic for silver buffs.




1:15 would be very nice....unlikely while gold is so high, but nice indeed...


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

While Gold continues it's rise..with higher highs daily... 

Silver seems to be wallowing.The Gold/Silver  ratio is now out to a staggering 64.37%.
Might there not be correction in the offing?..Hope so.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Boyou said:


> While Gold continues it's rise..with higher highs daily...
> 
> Silver seems to be wallowing.The Gold/Silver  ratio is now out to a staggering 64.37%.
> Might there not be correction in the offing?..Hope so.




Silver in 2008 was very oversold so has had to come a long way,  the ratio has been as high as 70/1 so it is contracting also, the inset 12 month chart from Kitco makes it clear enough, on the $US price we are up 100%, gold at about 45%    The Aussie silver price recently hit $20, which is getting towards its previous highs so I feel confident and pleased with my silver holdings.

cheers explod


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



Boyou said:


> While Gold continues it's rise..with higher highs daily...
> 
> Silver seems to be wallowing.The Gold/Silver  ratio is now out to a staggering 64.37%.
> Might there not be correction in the offing?..Hope so.




Focus is on Gold.  Silver has been going up since November 2008 and still climbing.  up over 50% for the past 12 months.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



Trembling Hand said:


> Explod it would be a truly peaceful and beautiful world if religion stayed out of politics and if the blindly biased gold/silver bugs got an education in the field they profess to be experts in.
> 
> Truly no idea about the function of futs,
> 
> Open interest NEVER EVER NEVER EVER = amount of deliverable in ANY underling derivative. Commodity, interest rate, FX or equity. It is not a CONSPIRACY. Its how derivatives work.
> 
> (oh if OI = deliverable it is purely luck, random falling of numbers)




Have you seen the reports about the gold plated tungsten bars that trace back to the USA?  And the FED Reserve have admitted that they been useing gold swaps since 10 or 20 years ago, even if Alan Greenspan said there was no such trading going on.

well.  Why would anyone trust the FED?

_*Fed admits hiding gold swap arrangements*_


Fed admits hiding gold swap arrangements
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2009-09-23 02:55. Section: Daily Dispatches

11p Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The Federal Reserve System has disclosed to GATA that it has gold swap arrangements with foreign banks that it does not want the public to know about.

The disclosure contradicts denials provided by the Fed to GATA in 2001 and suggests that the Fed is indeed very much involved in the surreptitious international central bank manipulation of the gold price particularly and the currency markets generally.

The Fed's disclosure came this week in a letter to GATA's Washington-area lawyer, William J. Olson of Vienna, Virginia (http://www.lawandfreedom.com/), denying GATA's administrative appeal of a freedom-of-information request to the Fed for information about gold swaps, transactions in which monetary gold is temporarily exchanged between central banks or between central banks and bullion banks. (See the International Monetary Fund's treatise on gold swaps here: http://www.imf.org/external/bopage/pdf/99-10.pdf.)

The letter, dated September 17 and written by Federal Reserve Board member Kevin M. Warsh (see http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/warsh.htm), formerly a member of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, detailed the Fed's position that the gold swap records sought by GATA are exempt from disclosure under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act.

Warsh wrote in part: "In connection with your appeal, I have confirmed that the information withheld under Exemption 4 consists of confidential commercial or financial information relating to the operations of the Federal Reserve Banks that was obtained within the meaning of Exemption 4. This includes information relating to swap arrangements with foreign banks on behalf of the Federal Reserve System and is not the type of information that is customarily disclosed to the public. This information was properly withheld from you."

When, in 2001, GATA discovered a reference to gold swaps in the minutes of the January 31-February 1, 1995, meeting of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee and pressed the Fed, through two U.S. senators, for an explanation, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan denied that the Fed was involved in gold swaps in any way. Greenspan also produced a memorandum written by the Fed official who had been quoted about gold swaps in the FOMC minutes, FOMC General Counsel J. Virgil Mattingly, in which Mattingly denied making any such comments. (See http://www.gata.org/node/1181.)

The Fed's September 17 letter to GATA confirming that the Fed has gold swap arrangements can be found here:

http://www.gata.org/files/GATAFedResponse-09-17-2009.pdf

While the letter is far from the first official admission of central bank scheming to suppress the price of gold (for documentation of some of these admissions, see http://www.gata.org/node/6242 and http://www.gata.org/node/7096), it comes at a sensitive time in the currency and gold markets. The U.S. dollar is showing unprecedented weakness, the gold price is showing unprecedented strength, Western European central banks appear to be withdrawing from gold sales and leasing, and the International Monetary Fund is being pressed to take the lead in the gold price suppression scheme by selling gold from its own supposed reserves in the guise of providing financial support for poor nations.

GATA will seek to bring a lawsuit in federal court to appeal the Fed's denial of our freedom-of-information request. While this will require many thousands of dollars, the Fed's admission that it aims to conceal documentation of its gold swap arrangements establishes that such a lawsuit would have a distinct target and not be just a fishing expedition.

In pursuit of such a lawsuit and its general objective of liberating the precious metals markets and making them fair and transparent, GATA again asks for your financial support and that of all gold and silver mining companies that are not at the mercy of market-manipulating governments and banks. GATA is recognized by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service as a non-profit educational and civil rights organization and contributions to it are federally tax-exempt in the United States. For information on donating to GATA, please visit here:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

You can also help GATA by bringing this dispatch to the attention of financial news organizations and urging them to investigate the Fed's involvement in gold swaps particularly and the gold (and silver) price suppression schemes generally.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Thanks for posting that up Electronic Master,  I subscibe to a newsletter that has explained this in the past.  I have a simple approach to markets and was warned years ago to keep my learning very simple and away from complex trading methods.  I do know that if you have the time and mechanisms  this type of trading can be more profitable.  There is no doubt in my mind that many of these instruments used the way they are have potential to create disasters to the poor mugs who do not understand.

The manipulators are coming undone and as Kyosaki says, cash is trash and silver in particular will go through the roof.

And T/h, I think that many bang heads was a bit of a stretch.  Admit simpleton but think that will keep me safe.

cheers   explod


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

In the last five years I have noticed that a rise in the silver price is often a precurser to a rise in the p/m's overall as well as oil.   Silver has been breaking to the upside the last week or so and noticed particularly the last few days.   Just picked up on a blurb by James Turk who gives some analysis on just that.    The link:   http://www.fgmr.com/silver-looks-ready-to-soar.html

cheers to all for easter and hope you get an egg.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

I am regurgitating this from the Kitco Silver Forum.With aknowledgement..

Bullish on silver  

What I about to present has not been shown or illustrated on any web site or pundits blog. There have been over the past couple years chart patterns regarding Silver (monthly historical data) illustrating possible chart formations which appear to be applicable to the price action in Ag, such as the large "cup and handle", or giant "saucer" patterns. First of all, these types of patterns are very ambiguous in the charting world, and not all that reliable. The chart pattern I have mapped out is valid and is one of the highest reliable patterns in all markets. If you go back 9 years, Silver traced out this pattern twice and Gold also painted this pattern (which I outlined last summer in advance) see the link posted on behalf by Grossomotto
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=46707

I want to make it perfectly clear, when I chart a pattern I start when the pattern is only about 30% complete, so the odds of it finishing to 100% is extremely rare since maybe only 1 / 20 patterns ever make it to fruition. The attached chart is an historical chart for Silver going back to the '70's, when I first started following Silver I was using a weekly chart which did not capture all 30+ years of information, which in hindsight was what I should have been using from the start.
I have attached two charts, the 1st chart is how I perceived Silver's price action to trend (from Dec '08) to the present. When I reviewed the 30 year chart action for Silver and noted the possibility of an extremely large "Symmetrical Triangle", I traced out the remaining turning points based on current trendlines and FIB retracements. The chart pattern is not pretty by any means, but it is valid, such that at this time all the key criteria for saying this pattern is complete is pretty much a done deal. All we need is a move past $19.50 on strong volume, breaking $21.35 should be the final confirmation of a new Secular Bull.

The 2nd chart shows the current price action to date, (15 months later), and as you can see the price action between what I had mapped out and what actually transpired is quite accurate. The last couple red legs in the 2nd pattern is to illustrate the possibility of Primary Wave (E) completing a contracting a-b-c pattern, where prices will basically correct but in a more sideways fashion and not in stair-step down like we have seen in the past.

This pattern (whether you are familar with formations, TA or not) does show a number of characteristics specific to Silver. The first, you can see the resistance trendline from 1980's high $42 on downward, this trendline has pinned prices from going higher. One can see how stagnant prices were after bottoming in 1985, and then in 2002 - 2003 starting a strong leg from the low 4's to 21. This is where many investors, silver pros etc, have taken this advance as a Bull Market for Silver. No question this was a great rally for Silver but a new secular bull? No. This advance was a counter-trend rally to correct the massive decline from $42 to $4's, for every big upswing there is a correction (down) and for every big downswing, there is a correction (up), these are known as counter-trend rallies, as the real trend for Silver was down to flat.

However, with all 6 Turning Points in the final throes of being complete, (the last being Wave E), this 30+ year pattern will have run its course. The trendlines (both upper and lower) have held Silver range-bound for 30 years, and we are maybe just weeks if not less for this pattern to trace out the finishing touches and rally to new highs.

How will you know if this pattern is the real McCoy? If I have interpreted this pattern correctly, Silver will continue to move sideways in a series of higher lows and lower highs. The next major move will be to the upside (after a retest of 17 or lower), taking out 19.50, which will be on HIGH volume (watch SLV). The market will show NO signs of weakness and break-through the 21 area, once 21 is taken out, 25 is just around the corner. Should Silver follow this course, and hold onto to these gains over the summer months, then GOD help those who are on the other side of this trade when the PM's enter the strong seasonal period.

In summary, this pattern has demonstrated how Silver has been restricted from breaking out higher, it explains why Silver has not rallied further to confirm Gold's move to $1225, it provides some justification to the Elliot Wave Folks who promote a deflationary cycle and that Silver (because it has not confirmed Gold's run), will decline back below the $8 area. Reading this pattern tells me that Silver is about to commence on a technical journey never before witnessed in the last few hundred years. The very fact that this market has been constricted for 30 years presents the enormouse upside potential, and I will try to explain a little on this subject.

When a market is overly depressed for a long period of time, trading well below market value, and the longer it trades below market value the more pronounced the upswing prices will be, when the market does turn up, it does not just move higher to find equilibrium ground, it moves way past the norm, past the anticipated market value to ridiculous levels, this truism also applies to markets in a bubble and they retreat well below market level. When we see that Silver has been inhibited for 3 decades, (irrespective of why), the fact of the matter is, the market will adjust and overshoot on the upside. This is evident by the $8 run to $42 in the last 24 months of the 1980 cycle.

From a technical perspective, the long term picture is VERY BULLISH, from a fundamental perspective the long term picture is VERY BULLISH. So whatever happens short term will be just that, short term, long term is right around the corner and about to start very soon.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Went looking for a Technology thread ..seems there isn't one ..so rather than start a new one,might as well bung this here .Another potential user of silver.

Would you believe Paper batteries?? From the Australian Energy Report website.

Scientists unlock power of paper battery
Courtesy: The Australian | 8th Dec 2009




ORDINARY paper could one day be used as a lightweight battery to power the devices that are now enabling the printed word to be eclipsed by e-mail, e-books and online news.

Scientists at Stanford University in California have successfully turned paper coated with ink made of silver and carbon nanomaterials into a "paper battery" that holds promise for new types of lightweight, high-performance energy storage.

The same feature that helps ink adhere to paper allows it to hold onto the single-walled carbon nanotubes and silver nanowire films.

Earlier research found that silicon nanowires could be used to make batteries 10 times as powerful as lithium-ion batteries now used to power devices such as laplop computers.

"Taking advantage of the mature paper technology, low cost, light and high-performance energy-storage are realised by using conductive paper as current collectors and electrodes," the scientists said in research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The battery could be useful in powering electric or hybrid vehicles, would make electronics lighter and longer lasting, and might even lead someday to paper electronics, the scientists said.

Battery weight and life have been an obstacle to commercial viability of electric-powered cars and trucks.

"Society really needs a low-cost, high-performance energy storage device, such as batteries and simple supercapacitors," Stanford assistant professor of materials science Yi Cui said.

Mr Cui said in addition to being useful for portable electronics and wearable electronics, the paper supercapacitors could be used for all kinds of applications that require instant high power.

"Since our paper batteries and supercapacitors can be very low cost, they are also good for grid-connected energy storage," he said.

Peidong Yang, professor of chemistry at the University of California-Berkeley, said the technology could be commercialised within a short time.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Silver has moved up a tad.Might have something to do with this.Perhaps the shorters got spooked .The move up coincided almost exactly with the release of this anouncement

CFTC Issues Advisory On Compliance With Speculative Limits
By Sarah N. Lynch
PubliÃ© le 07 Mai 2010

WASHINGTON - (Dow Jones)- The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a warning to the market on Friday to remind participants that speculative trading limits apply throughout the trading day as well as at the end of trading.

The warning was issued as an advisory note by the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight. A spokesman said the release of the advisory on Friday was not connected to Thursday's unusual market events.

The advisory sought to remind market players that "any trader whose position exceeds the applicable speculative position limit at any time during the day is in violation" of federal commodities law even if the trader reduces the position limit levels at the time the market closes.


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

Hello..any silver bugs watching the action tonight? 

Silver just went vertical at the open of the New York market..Up over 19.00

Hello ..Hello...


----------



## Temjin

*Re: SILVER*



Boyou said:


> Hello..any silver bugs watching the action tonight?
> 
> Silver just went vertical at the open of the New York market..Up over 19.00
> 
> Hello ..Hello...




Yes, yes, here I am. My avatar image is obvious enough. lol!

We are not as "loved" verse the gold bugs, and I like it that way. hehe


----------



## skcots

*Re: SILVER*

The answer is probably buried away somewhere in these forums but how do you guys invest in silver?

I am a long term investor and personally I prefer to keep physical bullion as I like shiny things but silver bullion is so expensive to buy and sell compared to gold. e.g. buy price is 9.5% higher then sell price where gold is only about 3.5% difference.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Have a look through the "Gold/silver Bullion Investment" thread.  A simple solution is to buy 1966 50cent coins, yes there is a 10% difference between buy and sell, if you p/m Ageo I am sure he can help.   

Three 1966 50cent coins equal an ounce of silver, you should be able to buy for around $7.30 each today.  I go to "I Wright, coin dealers in Lonsdale Stree, Melb.  They have other centres interstate I think.  Have purchased 1 kilo bars of silver from them too.   Dealers have to hold purchases for 7 days before they can onsell so they are punting a bit in the short term also.

Bullion is for longer term holding in my view


----------



## hobo-jo

*Re: SILVER*



skcots said:


> The answer is probably buried away somewhere in these forums but how do you guys invest in silver?
> I am a long term investor and personally I prefer to keep physical bullion as I like shiny things but silver bullion is so expensive to buy and sell compared to gold. e.g. buy price is 9.5% higher then sell price where gold is only about 3.5% difference.



I do hold some physical, yes the spread is larger but generally you can get that back if you then onsell privately instead of back to the dealer.

Also check out Silver Stackers, a predominantly Australian based user forum which has a sale section, there has been some good deals come up recently including a bulk sale of Silver bars for around 2% over spot and even some Canadian Olympic coins selling for under spot!

Another option is too take a look at ASX listed Silver miners/exploration companies. As Silver mining is generally a byproduct of mining other materials there are only a few Silver specific companies to checkout:
SVL, CCU, CXC, AYN

Are the only specifically Silver companies I am aware of (I hold CCU & SVL).

There are some others that have exposure including: ARD, TRY & CQT to name a few (I hold TRY).

Goodluck!


----------



## jorxster

*Re: SILVER*

Theoretical question for you guys;

If the united states heads into an economic disaster, worse then 08, then what do you think will happen to silver? Looking at the historical charts- silver lost half of it's value in 2008. I guess due probably to it's value as an industrial metal?

On the other hand- in a major economic downtown, could silver be considered a "safe haven" like gold?

I've been studying silver for a while, but this is one question I haven't really seen answered.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



jorxster said:


> Theoretical question for you guys;
> 
> 
> 
> I've been studying silver for a while, but this is one question I haven't really seen answered.




Silver is my main bullion holding, but that's just me.  

Have you read all the way through this thread?   Do that and follow any links posted, particularly that of Robert Kyosaki for instance and I think you will find the answers you need.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



jorxster said:


> Theoretical question for you guys;
> 
> If the united states heads into an economic disaster, worse then 08, then what do you think will happen to silver? Looking at the historical charts- silver lost half of it's value in 2008. I guess due probably to it's value as an industrial metal?
> 
> On the other hand- in a major economic downtown, could silver be considered a "safe haven" like gold?
> 
> I've been studying silver for a while, but this is one question I haven't really seen answered.







Welcome to the new gold/silver standard in the making.


----------



## jorxster

*Re: SILVER*

Yeah, but that video talks about Gold, not silver. Despite what all the experts (kiyosaki) are saying, you look at the charts and gold has consistently been more bullish then silver. So it's becoming even more undervalued, *assuming* that it'll someday return to a "15-to-1" ratio.

However my fear is that siler doesn't hold attraction as a reserve the same way that gold does, and that in the case of economic uncertainties, it won't perform as well. What do you guys think?


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



jorxster said:


> Yeah, but that video talks about Gold, not silver. Despite what all the experts (kiyosaki) are saying, you look at the charts and gold has consistently been more bullish then silver. So it's becoming even more undervalued, *assuming* that it'll someday return to a "15-to-1" ratio.
> 
> However my fear is that siler doesn't hold attraction as a reserve the same way that gold does, and that in the case of economic uncertainties, it won't perform as well. What do you guys think?




Each to his own, no one can advise on here.   Silver is for me, but yes, and traditionally, gold is regarded as the safe play in uncertain times.

You just need to sift through all the reports and stories for yourself to come to a conclusion.   Google up gold and silver and work your way through.  The big one though is that it is historically about currencies, read the stories that include those considerations then measure some of the economic issues impacting on currency valuations and perhaps you may see some light.

good luck in your research


----------



## Unnamed User

*Re: SILVER*



jorxster said:


> What do you guys think?




Silver is for the conspiracy theorists, Gold is for the realists.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Unnamed User said:


> Silver is for the conspiracy theorists, Gold is for the realists.




I guess you are tounge in cheek on this so will not bite.

For a good view on silver as money in the past see:-

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/i...-silver&catid=49:silver-commentary&Itemid=130


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



jorxster said:


> Yeah, but that video talks about Gold, not silver. Despite what all the experts (kiyosaki) are saying, you look at the charts and gold has consistently been more bullish then silver. So it's becoming even more undervalued, *assuming* that it'll someday return to a "15-to-1" ratio.
> 
> However my fear is that silver doesn't hold attraction as a reserve the same way that gold does, and that in the case of economic uncertainties, it won't perform as well. What do you guys think?





Kiyosaki?  Kiyosaki is a successful Business owner and investor.   He has a good adviser named Mike Maloney.




I also get my info from King World News

And I read daily reports from Silverprice.org

Here is some small quotes from this report:-

_*The Gold/Silver ratio, remember, is the price of gold divided by the price of silver, or how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold. Over the course of a precious metals bull market that ratio falls, meaning silver rises faster than gold over the life of the whole bull market, although not every day or even for long stretches. Today at 65.565 the ratio is about to fall through its 300 day moving average (65.37) and 50 DMA 965.29). It already stands below the 20 day moving average tripwire (66.9). The 200 DMA awaits at 64.03. Once the ratio breaks through that mark it will slide fast, as that roughly coincides with the bottom border of a triangle pattern. First target then will be 60.6784 (last low), and ultimately 47.5 for this rally.*_

_*Target for this move in silver is $29.00. I understand that sounds ridiculous, now, but won't sound ridiculous then.*_


Supply and Demand will help reduce SLV and GLD physical inventories as well.   Then we will witness a default in booth Silver and Gold some how, or way.  I'm sure they will cover that story up for a while.

In the mean time the media still hates Gold going up in price. They despise the fact that Gold is making new highs.  Insisting that Gold is in a bubble.

That is (of course) BS.  But thats how the Government and Bankers like the media to react.  

Cash is trash, and the media is effectively hiding this fact from the average person to make people think cash is worth something.   Nice game eh?



Keep stacking, go for the 1966 50 Cent peaces.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

Things are starting to heat up big time.  Here is an article from *Jesse's CafÃ© AmÃ©ricain*

*Silver Leaving the Comex As Investors Want to Get Physical*

_Dave from Denver reports that:

    "On Friday 516,522 ounces of silver were withdrawn from the Comex from Brinks.

    Yesterday another 1.6 million ounces were withdrawn from Brink's and HSBC. It all came from the "eligible" category, which is the investor silver being kept at the Comex. This means it wasn't the banks and SLV playing a "shell game" with their "fractional" silver holdings. This was real stuff leaving and going into real hands off-Comex.

    This is a lot of silver leaving the Comex and at least the silver leaving HSBC is motivated investors taking physical delivery.

    In the context of gold/silver holding up as well as it has so far this week (silver contract roll, options expiry Thurs, 2-day FOMC meeting), it would seem that the demand for actual physical delivery of gold/silver maybe starting to overwhelm the cartel."_


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



electronicmaster said:


> Things are starting to heat up big time.      Yesterday another 1.6 million ounces were withdrawn from Brink's and HSBC. It all came from the "eligible" category, which is the investor silver being kept at the Comex. This means it wasn't the banks and SLV playing a "shell game" with their "fractional" silver holdings. This was real stuff leaving and going into real hands off-Comex.
> 
> This is a lot of silver leaving the Comex and at least the silver leaving HSBC is motivated investors taking physical delivery.
> 
> In the context of gold/silver holding up as well as it has so far this week (silver contract roll, options expiry Thurs, 2-day FOMC meeting), it would seem that the demand for actual physical delivery of gold/silver maybe starting to overwhelm the cartel."[/SIZE][/I]




Yes there could well be a big squeeze on soon and by the following article it may be huge when it spills over.  Interesting times we live in.

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/i...-market&catid=49:silver-commentary&Itemid=130

Or via the GATA web page which I acknowledge herewith.


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: SILVER*

Picked up a 2000 Perth Mint Sydney Olympics $5 Kookaburra coin for $2 still in display case & mint condition a couple of weeks ago.

Been offered $65 so far. NICE! 

I think I'll keep it a while


----------



## Boyou

*Re: SILVER*

That's a good score,Gumby...especially so for $2.00.The latest Kooks are retailing for about $30.00. 
A bit puzzled by the Olympic /Kookaburra description..no such animal to my knowledge....maybe it is a fake round? 

Any chance of a photo?


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

As spelt out earlier in this thread, it would appear that silver may be the sleeper in the precious metals domain.  The following article is clear and brings together many of our previous assertions.  I am a holder.

From the Kitco site

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wilson/july062010.html


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*

Does anyone know the premise of a bollinger band squeeze? 

We look for a stock that has the lowest volatility over a 6-month period (using, for example, bollinger band width) and wait for a breakout using a simple technical indicator like Parabolic SAR or similar.

I run the weekly scan all the time, to see if there are any volatility breakouts which I wish to enter. Generally, at least in the last 2 years, most volatility breakouts have not been in stocks I was interested in entering longs.

This week changed that.

NYSE ticker CDE trades as a CDI on the ASX, under the ticker CXC. Volatility is definitely at a 6 month low. We smacked into the last weeks Parabolic SAR value, and the OBV indicator shows some hopeful signs of accumulation (correct me if I'm wrong).

CDE is a mostly silver play, with assets in the US and Americas in general. They had a mine in Broken Hill NSW but sold it I believe in 2009 and retained a non-operating stake. General interest to enter this stock as an almost pure silver+some gold producer play with no current exposure to the mining tax kerfuffle, low debt/equity, plenty of silver ounces in reserve for sale as well as strong silver and gold production numbers as well as increasing cash flow.

Am looking to accumulate in the $19-$20 per share region with some initial shares purchased yesterday.

As the recession becomes worse and worse, I am shifting more and more of my monthly savings allocation into relatively big stocks with a proven track record and high asset reserves/low debt levels. Am wary of holding lots of stock shares, but even more wary of remaining undiversified in such an uncertain time.


----------



## hobo-jo

*Re: SILVER*

Not that much love for Silver around here given the fresh 30 year highs 

I wrote a blog tonight on 3 stocks with Silver exposure which may be of interest:

*Only 3 "pure" Silver plays on the ASX*


> CCU, SVL, AYN ... I get the feeling these three codes will come up very frequently on stock discussion boards over the next several months. Silver (priced in USD) has recently broken out to fresh 30 year highs as the precious metal bull market kicks things up a notch, Gold has surpassed $1300 to reach new highs, the HUI is approaching the high of 519 set in March 2008, all signs are pointing towards an explosive end of year for the metals & related stocks.
> 
> During periods of high interest in precious metals Silver tends to outperform Gold as do the mining stocks, so you can just imagine the interest we could see in Silver mining companies, especially if Silver climbs in a parabolic fashion as I suggested it might in another recent post: "Where to for the price of Silver?".
> 
> The Gold:Silver ratio is still around 60:1. Before the 2008 collapse in precious metals prices this ratio was sitting around 50:1. A 50:1 ratio today based on the current Gold price would give us a Silver price over US$26.
> 
> Australia's large Silver producers do not do so as their main focus ... so finding exposure on the ASX to Silver's price upside can be difficult. To my knowledge there are currently only 4 "pure" Silver companies on the ASX (by pure, I mean Silver production or exploration is their main focus). One of those companies (CXC, Coeur D'Alene Mines Corp) is delisting from the ASX in December this year. That will leave us with 3, which brings us back to the codes listed at the start of the bog ... CCU, SVL, AYN, these are the 3 ASX codes for the following companies:
> 
> Cobar Consolidated Resources Limited (CCU)
> Silver Mines Limited (SVL)
> Alcyone Resources Limited (AYN)
> 
> Below is short introduction I have written for each, I will hopefully find time to cover each of them in more depth in the near future.
> 
> In my opinion the real speculative money has not really caught onto Silver's rise, as Silver rises further I expect these 3 companies will benefit handsomely through a significant rise in their share prices.



Continues with brief company descriptions @ http://bullionbaron.blogspot.com/2010/09/only-3-pure-silver-plays-on-asx.html


----------



## So_Cynical

*Re: SILVER*



hobo-jo said:


> Australia's large Silver producers do not do so as their main focus ... so finding exposure on the ASX to Silver's price upside can be difficult. To my knowledge there are currently only 4 "pure" Silver companies on the ASX (by pure, I mean Silver production or exploration is their main focus). One of those companies (CXC, Coeur D'Alene Mines Corp) is delisting from the ASX in December this year. That will leave us with 3, which brings us back to the codes listed at the start of the bog ... CCU, SVL, AYN, these are the 3 ASX codes for the following companies:




If we are talking ASX listed silver producers of significance then we have to be talking about 'TRY - Troy resources' who coincidentally released today, an announcement in regards to the Processing of First Ore at the Gold/Silver Casposo Project in Argentina.

Gold 320,800 ounces - Silver 9,037,000 ounces. 

http://www.troyres.com.au/investor-centre/announcements/2010.html


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

The Silver Log (09.30.2010) - Monthly chart is Not Overextended


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (10.05.2010) - Silver rises to $22.75 on break of uptrend line*



 endlessmountain  |   October 05, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (10.07.2010) - Price Correction *



 endlessmountain  |   October 07, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com

http://www.finviz.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*Silver reaches $24 - Now what?*



 endlessmountain  |   October 13, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## Trend Hunter

*Re: SILVER*

Silver (SLV) has really been like a rocket ship over the last 1.5 months.
The 15 minute, 60minute and Daily are all looking very strong at the moment.
So although the trend has been in place for some time now, trends this strong can usual go a lot longer than expected.

My Williams %R trading system say its still all GO!!, with no signs of weakness. 

If your already on SLV and you ready have got your risk capital back, hang on for the ride.


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

I'm not really any silver expert i'm more gold/cfd's but i'm looking at silver as well these days(who isn't). I'm looking at stocking up on some physical silver bullion but i had a question regarding assay's for silver but coudnt seem to find much information online. 

For gold assay's are almost a must for physcal bullion but for silver(i'm looking at PAMP suisse 1kg bars) should they all have Assays?

This may sound silly but i'm abit new to silver.


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: SILVER*

The physical silver bullion i have is stamped as 99.99%  and i think it came with a certificate but cant quite remember. Bought it of a reputable jeweller however


----------



## skcots

*Re: SILVER*



nukz said:


> I'm not really any silver expert i'm more gold/cfd's but i'm looking at silver as well these days(who isn't). I'm looking at stocking up on some physical silver bullion but i had a question regarding assay's for silver but coudnt seem to find much information online.
> 
> For gold assay's are almost a must for physcal bullion but for silver(i'm looking at PAMP suisse 1kg bars) should they all have Assays?
> 
> This may sound silly but i'm abit new to silver.




The PAMP bars I bought did not come with Assay Certificates. I didn't think much of it at the time as they were from a reputable dealer, they are well known bars and are stamped with purity and serial number. That said I know other places sell the bars with certificates. 

Not sure if their will be any problems offloading them.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



skcots said:


> The PAMP bars I bought did not come with Assay Certificates. I didn't think much of it at the time as they were from a reputable dealer, they are well known bars and are stamped with purity and serial number. That said I know other places sell the bars with certificates.
> 
> Not sure if their will be any problems offloading them.




I have brought and sold silver bars for over six years now and have never worried about assays or had a problem.  However I have only dealt with two very reputable dealers who also know me well enough now too.

Best advice on this is Ageo, he may spot these posts and put in his bit  but he has always been happy to answer p/m's


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (10.15.2010) *



 endlessmountain  |   October 15, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*The Silver Log (10.16.2010) - Technical Analysis*

*The Silver Log (10.16.2010) - Technical Analysis* 



 endlessmountain  |   October 16, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*



skcots said:


> The PAMP bars I bought did not come with Assay Certificates. I didn't think much of it at the time as they were from a reputable dealer, they are well known bars and are stamped with purity and serial number. That said I know other places sell the bars with certificates.
> 
> Not sure if their will be any problems offloading them.




Thanks for the info, i actully got abit of silver today. I'm a real fan of the PAMP products they look great. Who can go wrong with the Swiss.


----------



## electronicmaster

*The Silver Log (10.18.2010) - Increased Volatility*

The Silver Log (10.18.2010) - Increased Volatility 



 endlessmountain  |   October 18, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## DB008

*Re: SILVER*

ETFS Silver

ASX:ETPMAG

http://www.etfsecurities.com/au/securities/etfs_securities.asp

ETFS Index of Metals than can be currently traded
http://www.etfsecurities.com/msl/index_au.asp




> *ETFS Physical Silver*
> 
> *Investment objective*
> ETFS Physical Silver (ETPMAG) is designed to offer investors
> a simple, cost-efficient and secure way to access the
> precious metals market. ETPMAG is intended to provide
> investors with a return equivalent to movements in the silver
> spot price less fees.
> 
> *About the security*
> ETPMAG is a transferable security that can be created or
> redeemed on demand by market-makers, and that can be
> redeemed by investors. It trades on exchange as an equity.
> ETPMAG is backed by physical allocated metal held by the
> Custodian (HSBC Bank USA N.A.). All physical silver metal
> held with HSBC conform to the London Bullion Market
> Association’s (LBMA) rules for Good Delivery.
> 
> *Key features*
>  Tracks the price of silver, not a portfolio of equities
>  Simple to trade on a major stock exchange
>  Settled and held in ordinary brokerage accounts
>  Transparent tracking with clear pricing
>  Backed by physical, allocated metal
>  Provides additional portfolio diversification
>  Able to short, and margin eligible
> 
> *About the pricing*
> The price of ETPMAG is based on the spot price of silver less
> the daily Management Fee. Daily price of ETPMAG:
> = 1.0 oz of Silver x Silver spot price
> less daily Management Fee
> 
> Details regarding the pricing calculations are available on
> http://www.etfsecurities.com/msl/index_au.asp
> The spot price for silver is based on the LBMA’s specifications
> for Good Delivery (loco London), which is an internationally
> recognised and transparent benchmark for pricing physical
> silver.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (10.19.2010) - Silver down 6% in USA, less in other countries*



 endlessmountain  |   19 October 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log - (10.21.2010) - Silver is below the five and ten day average*



 endlessmountain  |   October 21, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*CFTC Judge G H Painter whistle-blows before retiring in January 2011* 



 connectingdots1  |   October 20, 2010

** CFTC important **

http://www.scribd.com/doc/39746954/Judge-Painter-Notice-and-Order-dcpdf-1

http://www.futuresmag.com/SiteColle...PDFs/Judge Painter Notice and Order.DCpdf.pdf


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

The Silver Log (10.23.2010) - Technical Analysis 



 endlessmountain  |   October 23, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (10.26.2010) *



 endlessmountain  |   October 26, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blotspot.com

I have been busy and an update to the page should happen either later tonight or tommorow.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*CFTC's Chilton raises alarm about silver market*

http://www.reuters.com

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWALQLE6QE20101026



> WASHINGTON | Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:30am EDT
> 
> WASHINGTON Oct 26 (Reuters) - There have been repeated attempts to influence prices in silver markets, Bart Chilton, a commissioner at the U.S. futures regulator, said on Tuesday.
> 
> "There have been fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control that price," Chilton said in prepared remarks before a Commodity Futures Trading Commission meeting.
> 
> Chilton said he could not pre-judge the outcome of the CFTC's ongoing investigation of the silver markets, but said public deserves some answers to their concerns. (Reporting by Roberta Rampton and Ayesha Rascoe; Editing by Neil Stempleman)





*Google the headline and you will find that the media was all over this story last night. 

The reaction of the Silver price was favorable *


----------



## exgeo

*Re: SILVER*

I was formerly a holder of Laguna LRC (about 50/50 gold silver; 1gt/Au, 60g/t Ag), but sold when the takeover by KCN was announced recently.

Looking for more silver exposure I came across this today from Kimberley metals KBL. Ironically, just the silver from this drilling is higher than Alcyone AYN have been announcing (AYN mostly around 60g/t):



> • 14 metres @ 88 g/t Ag and 9.8% Pb from 18 metres
> includes 3 metres @ 306 g/t Ag and 31.3% Pb from 21 metres
> 
> • 9 metres @ 125 g/t Ag and 15.4% Pb from 17 metres
> includes 4 metres at 254 g/t Ag and 31.2% Pb from 21 metres
> 
> • 12 metres @ 91g/t Ag and 7.3% Pb from 16 metres
> includes 4 metres @ 193 g/t Ag and 16.7% Pb from 23 metres


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

Nice jump in silver today, could this be shorts blowing?

Or is the market preparing for QE2 next week?


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*20 Million More Ounces of Silver Needed!*
 http://kingworldnews.com

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...20_Million_More_Ounces_of_Silver_Needed!.html




> October 27, 2010
> KWN Blog
> 
> 
> You already have a market in silver that is close to choking because of supply constraints.  Now some are estimating that 20 million ounces will be needed to fill an order for Sprott Asset Management’s new Silver Trust.  It seems to me that higher prices will be needed to fill an order of that magnitude.
> 
> 
> Earlier in the week King World News quoted one of the most respected and level-headed individuals in the resource world as saying, “We are seeing huge inflows into physical silver, and that may create a shortfall of available physical silver.”


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*Act Now, CFTC Is Urged * 

http://online.wsj.com




http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303341904575576203310056046.html



*



			By SUSAN PULLIAM And CAROLYN CUI

A Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulator is putting pressure on the agency to take action in a high-profile, two-year-old investigation of the silver market.

At a CFTC hearing Tuesday to consider new rules to strengthen its commodity-enforcement powers, commissioner Bart Chilton said market players have made "repeated" and "fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control" silver prices. Mr. Chilton said he believed there have been violations of CFTC rules that should be prosecuted, though he couldn't publicly disclose trader names.

CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler declined to comment on the silver investigation or Mr. Chilton's comments. 

The call to action on the silver investigation comes as the CFTC faces increasing pressure because of its expanded role overseeing derivatives trading under the new financial-overhaul law. For years, lawmakers have criticized the agency for failing to aggressively police the commodities markets.
		
Click to expand...


*
Headline continues ... see link above


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*UPDATE 3-JPMorgan, HSBC sued for alleged silver conspiracy*


http://www.reuters.com


http://www.reuters.com/article/idAFN2725907120101027?pageNumber=1




> * Hundreds of millions in illegal profit alleged
> 
> * Triple damages sought in one of two lawsuits
> 
> * CFTC proposed new tools to thwart price manipulation (Adds adviser comment, details)
> 
> By Jonathan Stempel
> 
> NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA.L) were hit with two lawsuits on Wednesday by investors who accused them of conspiring to drive down silver prices, and reaping an estimated hundreds of millions of dollars of illegal profits.
> 
> The banks, among the world's largest, were accused of manipulating the market for COMEX silver futures and options contracts from the first half of 2008 by amassing huge short positions in silver futures contracts that are designed to profit when prices fall.






http://www.reuters.com/article/idAFN2725907120101027?pageNumber=2




> Wed Oct 27, 2010 6:16pm EDT
> 
> Commissioner Bart Chilton added that there had been "fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control" silver prices. [ID:nN26129046]
> 
> A CFTC spokesman said the regulator does not comment on investigations, and would not discuss the investor lawsuits.
> 
> Earlier this year, the CFTC began looking into allegations by a London trader that JPMorgan was involved in manipulative silver trading, the Wall Street Journal said on Wednesday, citing a person close to the situation.
> 
> Silver prices have faced regulatory scrutiny in the past, perhaps most prominently after the Hunt brothers in Texas in 1980 attempted to corner the market, driving prices above $50 an ounce. The price later plunged.
> 
> Since the CFTC began its probe, spot silver prices XAG= have ranged between $8.42 and $24.90 an ounce, Reuters data show. They traded Wednesday at roughly $23.53. Silver futures prices SIc1 are up 39.1 percent this year.
> 
> The cases are Beatty v. JPMorgan Chase & Co et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 10-08146, and Laskaris v. JPMorgan Chase & Co et al in the same court, No. 10-08157. (Reporting by Jonathan Stempel; Additional reporting by Elinor Comlay, Jonathan Leff, Carole Vaporean in New York and Roberta Rampton in Washington, D.C.; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)




More info in the article linked above.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (10.28.2010) - Correction through time.*



#
endlessmountain
October 28, 2010


http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*Silver Log (10.29.2010) Gain of over three percent* 



endlessmountain | October 29, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

It looks like silvers in play this week, silver contracts just hit 24.96 hopefully we tap over the $25 mark today


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*RED ALERT METALS REPORT: ** SILVER SET TO EXPLODE ** *





SGTbull07 | October 30, 2010

Red Alert Metals Report: The biggest names in the precious metals world say the proce of silver is set to EXPLODE higher.

copyright 2010 SGTbull07

Music Courtesy Kevin MacLeod:
Titles: 'Umbrella Pants", "Desert City", "Impact Allegretto"; Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons "Attribution 3.0" http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

The content in my videos and on the SGTbull07 channel are provided for informational purposes only. Use the information found in my videos as a starting point for conducting your own research and conduct your own due diligence (DD) BEFORE making any significant investing decisions. SGTbull07 assumes all information to be truthful and reliable; however, I cannot and do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of this information. 

Thank you.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Overnight we have had a volatile swing from US$25 down to $23.90 and back up to $24.88 as we speak.   I believe after checking my ususal pundits today that we are going to see very big swings in the silver price with big rises.

Following article's outline of a class action against nakid short sellers would no doubt be having some effect. 

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...r-futures-class-action-lawsuit-106624128.html


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

I didn't understand how printing money could decrease the value of gold/silver unless the manipulation was ramped up last night it seems very strange.

Unless of course the market is still absorbing all that has happened.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



nukz said:


> I didn't understand how printing money could decrease the value of gold/silver unless there was manipulation going on last night it seems very strange.
> 
> Unless of course the market is still absorbing all that has happened.




That is an important observation there nuks, the powers that be continue to try and paint certain economic pictures that may not be correct.  The effect used to last a week or two, now only a few hours.

They assert on the surface a strong dollar policy and yet they are doing everything they can to devalue it, why? reduces their debt in real terms.  It is why China is getting upset because they hold a lot of US dollars

You will find many such anomalies.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> That is an important observation there nuks, the powers that be continue to try and paint certain economic pictures that may not be correct.  The effect used to last a week or two, now only a few hours.
> 
> They assert on the surface a strong dollar policy and yet they are doing everything they can to devalue it, why? reduces their debt in real terms.  It is why China is getting upset because they hold a lot of US dollars
> 
> You will find many such anomalies.




Yep.

They prevented Silver and Gold hitting new highs.  Especially when the FED announces QE2.

Nup, we can't have that.


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

On the silver chart this morning i was watching as the announcement of QE2 was made it looks like allot of new shorts where put on silver because it dropped instantly almost from 24.80 > 24.00 approx then it started raising on news of QE2 and then possibly whoever was shorting realised they need to ramp it up abit with the shorts and pushed it down from 24.90 > 24.20 a few hours later. 

Will be interesting if we see any further down spikes today on silver.

If you look at the gold chart and down spikes today where identical to silvers spikes at the same time.


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

Did some shorts just get knocked out silver just shot upto $25.15


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Rally Technical Analysis - 11.03.2010*




endlessmountain | 03 November 2010


NOTE:  Silver has moved higher since that upload.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (Technical Analysis) - 11.06.2010* 



endlessmountain | November 06, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

We are starting to get lift off.   US$30 the next target.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



sinner said:


> NYSE ticker CDE trades as a CDI on the ASX, under the ticker CXC. Volatility is definitely at a 6 month low. We smacked into the last weeks Parabolic SAR value, and the OBV indicator shows some hopeful signs of accumulation (correct me if I'm wrong).
> 
> CDE is a mostly silver play, with assets in the US and Americas in general. They had a mine in Broken Hill NSW but sold it I believe in 2009 and retained a non-operating stake. General interest to enter this stock as an almost pure silver+some gold producer play with no current exposure to the mining tax kerfuffle, low debt/equity, plenty of silver ounces in reserve for sale as well as strong silver and gold production numbers as well as increasing cash flow.
> 
> Am looking to accumulate in the $19-$20 per share region with some initial shares purchased yesterday.
> 
> As the recession becomes worse and worse, I am shifting more and more of my monthly savings allocation into relatively big stocks with a proven track record and high asset reserves/low debt levels. Am wary of holding lots of stock shares, but even more wary of remaining undiversified in such an uncertain time.




Remember this game is about putting your money where your mouth is.

I posted my thoughts, put my money on the line. Traded my plan, and my plan pays off.

CXC close the day 24.25, various parcels accumulated between $19 and $20 per share are sitting in 20-25% profit region.

Definitely taking some of those parcels off the table here and leaving the rest in the bottom drawer with the Aussie gold miners parcel purchased earlier (see gold thread for call). 

Love this game. No leverage on this trade!

Updated chart below. Click quote to see original chart:


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> We are starting to get lift off.   US$30 the next target.




Yes, and someone seems to have placed a massive short position thinking US$30 is the next resistance level for a major correction.

They must think they are smart or know this is planed or something. 

They had better be correct about that bet because my sources say Silver has a long way to go in a short time before it starts to consolidate at best.   


Well have to see.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



sinner said:


> Remember this game is about putting your money where your mouth is.
> 
> I posted my thoughts, put my money on the line. Traded my plan, and my plan pays off.
> 
> CXC close the day 24.25, various parcels accumulated between $19 and $20 per share are sitting in 20-25% profit region.
> 
> Definitely taking some of those parcels off the table here and leaving the rest in the bottom drawer with the Aussie gold miners parcel purchased earlier (see gold thread for call).
> 
> Love this game. No leverage on this trade!
> 
> Updated chart below. Click quote to see original chart:




Yea, I have CXC.   Is it confirmed that they will be de-listed from the ASX?

I'd like to keep this stock as long as possible


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

Not sure if this was posted yet. 

*Silver Slumps After Comex Raises Margin Requirement; Gold Slides*
November 09, 2010, 5:09 PM EST

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Silver fell from the highest price in 30 years after CME Group Inc.’s Comex unit raised margin requirements. Gold dropped from a record.

The minimum amount of cash traders must deposit when borrowing from brokers to trade silver futures will rise to $6,500 per contract from $5,000 for exchange members, said Michael Shore, a spokesman for the exchange in Chicago. Silver surged as much as 7 percent to $29.34 an ounce in New York today, the highest price since March 1980, before retreating.

“The exchange wants to rein in the volatility,” said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. “The threat of margins going up will cause people to liquidate. They may not want to tie up as much of their money.”

Silver futures for December delivery rose $1.1474, or 5.4 percent, to settle at $28.906 an ounce at the close of floor trading on the Comex. The most-active contract fell as much as 3.7 percent to $26.415 in after-hours trading and was at $26.82 at 4:15 p.m.

Zeman said margin selling “spilled over” to gold.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $6.90, or 0.5 percent, to settle at $1,410.10 an ounce. The metal climbed to an all-time high for the fourth straight session, touching $1,424.30. In after-hours trading, the price dropped as much as 1.5 percent to $1,382.20 and last traded at $1,390.70.

Before today, gold had rallied 28 percent this year and silver had gained 63 percent.

Source - http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ex-raises-margin-requirement-gold-slides.html


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



nukz said:


> Not sure if this was posted yet.
> 
> *Silver Slumps After Comex Raises Margin Requirement; Gold Slides*
> November 09, 2010, 5:09 PM EST
> 
> Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Silver fell from the highest price in 30 years after CME Group Inc.’s Comex unit raised margin requirements. Gold dropped from a record.
> 
> The minimum amount of cash traders must deposit when borrowing from brokers to trade silver futures will rise to $6,500 per contract from $5,000 for exchange members, said Michael Shore, a spokesman for the exchange in Chicago. Silver surged as much as 7 percent to $29.34 an ounce in New York today, the highest price since March 1980, before retreating.
> 
> “The exchange wants to rein in the volatility,” said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. “The threat of margins going up will cause people to liquidate. They may not want to tie up as much of their money.”
> 
> Silver futures for December delivery rose $1.1474, or 5.4 percent, to settle at $28.906 an ounce at the close of floor trading on the Comex. The most-active contract fell as much as 3.7 percent to $26.415 in after-hours trading and was at $26.82 at 4:15 p.m.
> 
> Zeman said margin selling “spilled over” to gold.
> 
> Gold futures for December delivery rose $6.90, or 0.5 percent, to settle at $1,410.10 an ounce. The metal climbed to an all-time high for the fourth straight session, touching $1,424.30. In after-hours trading, the price dropped as much as 1.5 percent to $1,382.20 and last traded at $1,390.70.
> 
> Before today, gold had rallied 28 percent this year and silver had gained 63 percent.
> 
> Source - http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ex-raises-margin-requirement-gold-slides.html




This is a classic example of the fraud that has been going on (in Silver and Gold) for years. 

You have to *own Physical*.  No negotiations.  

It is the only way to win this game.

The little guys are going to be out priced,  I can see it


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

What rubbish... *MARGINS ALWAYS RISE WITH PRICE!* it has always been that way, it needs to be that way, they'd be remiss in their duty if they did not raise margins in line with price!

Now stop this silliness!

Go silver !


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> What rubbish... *MARGINS ALWAYS RISE WITH PRICE!* it has always been that way, it needs to be that way, they'd be remiss in their duty if they did not raise margins in line with price!
> 
> Now stop this silliness!
> 
> Go silver !




By 30%


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



electronicmaster said:


> By 30%




What has the price done recently? eh? It's quite normal in this situation.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> What has the price done recently? eh? It's quite normal in this situation.





Yes your right.  Interesting recovery


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

Silver might be good for 4x by May 2011... Lets see where we are in Jan.


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

*"CME confirmed silver margins raised from $5000 to $6500 (30%) effective 11/10 settl - no other metals effected"

Presumably, this affects the maintenance margin. And is a lovely way to kill paper longs.... but not shorts, of course.*

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pm-selloff-reason-cme-raise-margin-requirements-silver-5000-6500

Interesting that they would increase margin's on long positions only and not short positions... this indeed does sound interesting.


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

_*Invariably the parties disadvantaged by these moves complain that the exchange is "changing the rules in the middle of the game".  That's a naive and pointless perspective.  The fact is that the ability to change the rule is itself a rule.  The exchange is not changing the rules, they are just utilizing an alternate set of rules that are already in place.  Traders should stop complaining and read the rule book.  It's all there.

What is more intriguing is what motivates the exchange officials to use these rules? Is it truly a disorderly market (the usual reason) or is it part of a larger coordinated effort involving Federal regulators and policymakers to do whatever it takes to push up prices of risky assets such as housing, stocks and junk bonds and push down prices of safe-harbor assets such as gold and silver?

The point is, when buyers and sellers transact in futures markets, they're never alone.  Exchange monitors are always looking over your shoulder.   Never ignore the power of the exchanges and regulators and always remember they will use this power when it suits them, not you.*_

Source: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...s_-_Threes_Company,_Silver_Margin_Change.html

A little more food for thought


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



nukz said:


> *"CME
> Interesting that they would increase margin's on long positions only and not short positions... this indeed does sound interesting.*



*

Of course, the rules are made for the shorts (read bullion banks).   And taking delivery of physical is the only way to go and will squeeze the crooks out.*


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: SILVER*

When bars are compared to Gold they are cheap and affordable. When Gold gets too expensive to buy will silver be picked up?


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



nukz said:


> Interesting that they would increase margin's on long positions only and not short positions... this indeed does sound interesting.




Margin is margin, per contract regardless of side (long or short)... $6750 for silver unless you are a member then its 5K...

Members get it cheaper because they are a known and tested entity credit wise.

Don't believe the goldbug BS, many of them are mad ignorant idiots.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> Margin is margin, per contract regardless of side (long or short)... $6750 for silver unless you are a member then its 5K...
> 
> Members get it cheaper because they are a known and tested entity credit wise.
> 
> Don't believe the goldbug BS, many of them are mad ignorant idiots.




Agree with Mr Z, this is standard operating procedure for the exchange, nothing to write home about really.

Weak hands is all. Strong hands supposed to be scared of a huge drop in the price of silver? If I woke up tomorrow and it was running $3 an ounce I would definitely be out buying.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> Don't believe the goldbug BS, many of them are mad ignorant idiots.




Would you care to itemise and eloborate on that statement Mr Z


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> Don't believe the goldbug BS, many of them are mad *ignorant idiots*.






explod said:


> Would you care to itemise and eloborate on that statement



Firstly you guys are always jumping at shadows. Margins change *all *the time but when it happens to silver or gold its a conspiracy! Just laughable. Price goes up. Margin will after a certain time as per SPAN futures models. Its just how it is.

Then from a simple market admin move you get this BS,



> Interesting that they would increase margin's on long positions only and not short positions... this indeed does sound interesting.



LOL just making it up to help the CCB (Confirmation Conspiracy Bias).

Shorts and longs put up the SAME margin. Why don't you experts know the most basic functions of the market you dudes profess to know the inside story on????


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Would you care to itemise and eloborate on that statement Mr Z




Nope... 

I'm a gold investor, I loath goldbugs and all they desire and stand for. Be very careful about using or identifying with that tag it represents a toxic outlook on life in my opinion.

There are many, many ignorant idiot goldbugs and they are a problem for any serious gold investor.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



Trembling Hand said:


> Shorts and longs put up the SAME margin. Why don't you experts know the most basic functions of the market you dudes profess to know the inside story on????




Yes exactly....


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*



Trembling Hand said:


> LOL just making it up to help the CCB (Confirmation Conspiracy Bias).
> 
> Shorts and longs put up the SAME margin. Why don't you experts know the most basic functions of the market you dudes profess to know the inside story on????




If anybody claims they know the inside story on the market i would walk away 

There is some strange things going on with silver recently with the class suit against HSBC and JP Morgan so you can't come out and suggest everything is just conspiracy talk. 

I'm not a gold/silver bug at all, i just post what i see in the news or alternative media sources.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Of course, the rules are made for the shorts (read bullion banks).   And taking delivery of physical is the only way to go and will squeeze the crooks out.




The Comex was never a physical market, London is the physical market.... Comex to hedge, London to get metal. Comex position limits and the enforcement of them and the exceptions made have lead to abuse. That is now finally being recognized by the CFTC but it does not really go much further than that IMO. Don't expect much to come of the action against JPM, manipulation is very hard to establish in law.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



nukz said:


> I'm not a gold/silver bug at all, i just post what i see in the news or alternative media sources.




Beware the bug's glass-opper!

Seriously the gold world is full of pimps, liars, charlatans, thieves, dooms dayers, anti social malignant.... things and some really smart money. Research all you read in the alternate media and the main stream media. Most are ignorant to one degree or another (I do include myself and you in that comment ), most have an agenda and very few truly get gold and its roll in the financial world. Check everything! Especially before you go buying anyones line... its all skewed!


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (11.09.2010) - An almost $3.00 spike occurs and the trend remains higher *


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (11.10.2010) Part 2 - Volatility Update *



endlessmountain | November 10, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

The Silver Log (11.11.2010) - Silver duel with the five day average and $27.50 



endlessmountain | November 11, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

*Is Silver's parabolic spike over?*
Thursday, November 11, 2010
My third ever post on this blog was entitled "Where to for the price of Silver?", it suggested that we were likely going to see Silver head into a parabolic spike. The price target was $28.20 to $31.15. The blog was posted on the 20th of September when we saw the Silver price close at $20.71. Almost 2 months later on November 9th we saw a Silver price of $29.33 (intraday), this was a 42% increase from September 20th and approximately a 100% increase from the low I suggested Silver was rising from (made on February 5th).

This gives us the following parabolic spikes:

Parabolic Spike 1:
$9.23 - December 12th, 2005 -> $7.84 - December 28th,2005 -> 15% Fall
$7.84 - December 28th, 2005 -> $16.68 - April 18th, 2006 -> 113% Rise

Parabolic Spike 2:
$13.49 - July 24th, 2007 -> $11.04 - August 16th, 2007 -> 18% Fall
$11.04 - August 16th, 2007 -> $21.35 - March 17th, 2008 -> 93% Rise

Parabolic Spike 3
$18.89 - January 11th, 2010 -> $14.62 - February 5th, 2010 -> 22% Fall
$14.62 - February 5th, 2010 -> $29.33 - November 9th, 2010 -> 100% Rise





The price of Silver saw a big fall following the intraday high of $29.33. The fall was attributed to a change of margin requirement for Silver traders by the CME:

    Commodity Exchanges Increase Margin Requirements as Prices Surge
    Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity exchanges in the U.S. and Europe are increasing the cost of trading some raw materials in response to a jump in volatility as prices surge.

    CME Group Inc., the largest futures market, increased margin requirements, or the amount of money traders must keep on deposit, for soybean futures by as much as 10 percent as prices jumped to a 26-month high. The CME’s Comex unit raised the requirement for trading silver to $6,500 a contract from $5,000 as the metal reached a 30-year high. ICE Futures U.S. increased margins for cotton as the commodity rose to a record and LCH.Clearnet is raising them for robusta coffee, cocoa and white sugar next week.
    Bloomberg


The question now remains: With the target price met is the spike over? Should we expect a fall and period of consolidation? I hinted in the September post that we might see a higher rise than previous spikes due to a longer period of consolidation and increased demand, will this be the case?

I encourage your comments on these unanswered questions!

This spike may not be over, but it would be prudent to take care if trading Silver on margin or if you are looking to buy a core position. In my opinion those accumulating Silver over time should continue to do so, but those looking to buy Silver for the first time should probably consider the sharp rise we've seen so far and whether they are happy to hold through a fall in price and consolidation (should the current spike be over).

It is my personal opinion that we will see higher Silver prices over coming months, however it is easy to get caught up in the 'hype' and I wonder how many other Silver investors thought Silver was going higher (short term) at the top of the spikes in 2006 and 2008...

Source: http://www.bullionbaron.com/2010/11/is-silvers-parabolic-spike-over.html

I thought this was quite a interesting read on today's drop, but from what i can see gold, currency, indicies also have dropped.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

No... look at a monthly log chart. It will not end here and now.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



nukz said:


> The question now remains: With the target price met is the spike over?




No,  Its just a breather



nukz said:


> Should we expect a fall and period of consolidation?




This is the consolidation thanks to the Chinese refusing to allow the price to drop below $26.50 per ounce.  But that is not to say the commercials wont dump more shorts on Silver to suppress the price down some more.



nukz said:


> I hinted in the September post that we might see a higher rise than previous spikes due to a longer period of consolidation and increased demand, will this be the case?





Hell yes.  Like to see $50.00 per ounce by the end of this year?  Well we might just get it.


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

So according to bloomberg this large drop in well... everything including a huge drop in the Chinese market is attributed to speculation China will once again raise rates.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (11.12.2010) - Big down push at 10:57 AM EST today *



endlessmountain | November 12, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



nukz said:


> So according to bloomberg this large drop in well... everything including a huge drop in the Chinese market is attributed to speculation China will once again raise rates.




Yep, typical.  

Time to buy a bit more Silver I think.

1966 50 Cent rounds 

Oh thank you Commercials, for this wonderful gift today.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (11.13.2010) - Technical Analysis *



endlessmountain | November 13, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*The Silver Log (11.14.2010) - Inflation adjusted charts*

*The Silver Log (11.14.2010) - Inflation adjusted charts* 



endlessmountain | November 14, 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

CFTC have just released a new video on the new Dodd-Frank rules implementation, interesting. This is in relation to the JP morgan/HSBC lawsuit.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xXa7ZdEA5c


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (11.16.2010) Crash & Buy - Awareness - $25 test* 



endlessmountain | 16 November 2010

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com

More info on the $25 level on the blog


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

The Silver Log (11.17.2010) 



endlessmountain | 17 November 2010 | 15 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com

Silver Giveaway Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJBiM_SdIvg


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Your man is pretty good there electronicmaster.  Silver has flown through US$26 today like butter and leads gold which usually signifies the next big uptick coming for the p/metals.

Go the silver holders.


----------



## cogs

*Re: SILVER*

Nice work electronicmaster. I think maybe the dog didn't want him to give too much away.

Nice work in conspiracy thread also, near set that one as my home page.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (11.18.2010) - Intermediate down trend being challenged now *




endlessmountain | November 18, 2010 | 21 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


Silver has been going up since this report.  $26.95 USD per Troy Ounce so far


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (11.18.2010) - Five percent gain sending the intermediate status to neutral *



endlessmountain | 18 November 2010 | 20 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (11.20.2010) - Technical Analysis *



endlessmountain | November 20, 2010 | 25 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## DB008

*Re: SILVER*

Thanks for putting up these Silverlogs EM!
I love watching these. Looks like silver is still poised to make higher highs, judging from that video.


----------



## Whiskers

*Re: SILVER*



DB008 said:


> Thanks for putting up these Silverlogs EM!
> I love watching these. Looks like silver is still poised to make higher highs, judging from that video.




Yeah... oh, no, I mean NO... 

This guy gives me the willies a bit...

Just to temper enthusiasm a bit, my analysis on the 4 hr chart suggests a good time to be on the sidelines or going short if anything.

Normally a Piercing Line is bullish... but here it comes off too short of a bear run to be of much (bullish) consequence and that gap up could likely be a Shooting Star on the daily, another bear Signal.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (11.22.2010) - 61.8% Fibonacci Test*



endlessmountain | November 22, 2010 | 17 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Whiskers said:


> Yeah... oh, no, I mean NO...
> 
> This guy gives me the willies a bit...
> 
> Just to temper enthusiasm a bit, my analysis on the 4 hr chart suggests a good time to be on the sidelines or going short if anything.
> 
> Normally a Piercing Line is bullish... but here it comes off too short of a bear run to be of much (bullish) consequence and that gap up could likely be a Shooting Star on the daily, another bear Signal.





I think long Whiskers.   Charting is a bit tough on the p/m's because those who command (manipulate in my HO) use charting to fool the chartists.

In fact I will go out on a limb and say we are only days away from US$30 silver.  Its about sentiment and all those pesky enquiries.


----------



## electronicmaster

*The Silver Log (11.24.2010) - Double Top on Silver is False*

*The Silver Log (11.24.2010) - Double Top on Silver is False* 



endlessmountain | 24 November 2010 | 42 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## Whiskers

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> I think long Whiskers.   Charting is a bit tough on the p/m's because those who command (manipulate in my HO) use charting to fool the chartists.
> 
> *In fact I will go out on a limb and say we are only days away from US$30 silver.*  Its about sentiment and all those pesky enquiries.




Not looking good for me explod... although I agree there has been some manipulation of the markets, but I'm thinking they are running too hard against the tide of 'que sara sara' and will get washed back to equilibruim.

That video fella seems to have too much emphasis on MA's and dubious H&S formations a bear followed by a bul in close succession and both run there distance. 



Whiskers said:


> Yeah... oh, no, I mean NO...
> 
> This guy gives me the willies a bit...
> 
> Just to temper enthusiasm a bit, my analysis on the 4 hr chart suggests a good time to be on the sidelines or going short if anything.
> 
> Normally a Piercing Line is bullish... but here it comes off too short of a bear run to be of much (bullish) consequence and* that gap up could likely be a Shooting Star on the daily*, another bear Signal.




Just to fill in some 'signs'that this guy is ignoring...

That shooting star now has company on the daily chart. If it closes up here for the week, that will be a stronger sign of a fall... contrary to common expectation.

That combination around that spike high on the daily is also ominous for a fall. It's akin to the Falling Three combination, which usually forms in a Bear market to signify more falls. I'm thinking while not pictorially perfect, the message from the price action is the same. those three candles nudged a bit higher within the range of the last big green to the left, before falling below with a bit of gusto the red after... then there is the divergance.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

Please feel free to post charts.  I'll keep posting them videos just to keep up to date with the current events.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



> That shooting star now has company on the daily chart. If it closes up here for the week, that will be a stronger sign of a fall... contrary to common expectation.
> 
> That combination around that spike high on the daily is also ominous for a fall. It's akin to the Falling Three combination, which usually forms in a Bear market to signify more falls. I'm thinking while not pictorially perfect, the message from the price action is the same. those three candles nudged a bit higher within the range of the last big green to the left, before falling below with a bit of gusto the red after... then there is the divergance.




Good points raised Whiskers.  I tend to be sitting on the sidelines as I do not trade as such but merely hold physical for the  long term which remains bullish for that purpose.  However I naturally remain alert for signs of large corrections.

A shooting star of influence usually needs to be clear with a gap from the other candles in my view.

The near to double top formation in the short term signify a lot of changing hands at these levels.  Momentum (open interest) is easing on the dips and has dropped off which leaves improved room for another test of the high.   A breach of this would be very bullish.

On the support side it is strong now around the US$25

Now in all of this we have seen a considerable rally in the US$ since the silver top.  I feel that this is temporary and at any weakness on the US$ silver will break the high with relative ease.

All just my opinion.   Whiskers If you would be good enough to post a weekly on silver like the one above (good clear chart)for the last 12 months we may see a clearer picture.

cheers


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Found one Whiskers.  The three month weekly looks bullish and our star was repeated early in this quarter.


----------



## Logique

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> ..Now in all of this we have seen a considerable rally in the US$ since the silver top.  I feel that this is temporary and at any weakness on the US$ silver will break the high with relative ease..



Reasonable summary of where I am as well Explod. 

I'm still working on mastering the Three Black Crows, now there's the Falling Three Combination. It's takes a bit of keeping up, but don't get me wrong, I do value Whiskers' technical analysis highly, and there is some tech divergence on the recent high.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Logique said:


> Reasonable summary of where I am as well Explod.
> 
> I'm still working on mastering the Three Black Crows, now there's the Falling Three Combination. It's takes a bit of keeping up, but don't get me wrong, I do value Whiskers' technical analysis highly, and there is some tech divergence on the recent high.




Whiskers is spot on with his research.   It is the combination of all inputs that gives us the best results.

Your own enquiries and submissions are very helpful also, you have come a very long way in a short time.

The precious metals threads are where we question the value of the entire economic system.  The banking and investment professionals do not like that from all points because us sheeples are learning to think for ourselves and do not really need them.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*Gold to Silver ratio - 11.25.2010* 



endlessmountain | 25 November 2010 | 7 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## Whiskers

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Found one Whiskers.  The three month weekly looks bullish and our star was repeated early in this quarter.




That was just a star (or doji) explod, this one shaping up on the weekly is 'shooting' ie above the previous candle body. 

While a shooting star is not a sell signal in itself, it does signify a bit of procrastination by the market to progress the gap up further.



Logique said:


> Reasonable summary of where I am as well Explod.
> 
> I'm still working on mastering the Three Black Crows, now there's the Falling Three Combination. It's takes a bit of keeping up, but don't get me wrong, I do value Whiskers' technical analysis highly, and there is some tech divergence on the recent high.




Yeah Logique, gotta keep on eye on three's ... as they say two's company, three's a crowd.

The Falling Three is not technically correct, as I said before, BUT it reinforces the pattern developing in the lower time frame charts.



Looking at the weekly time frames (back to 2002) it has hit the wall a bit and would require something special to push it on very far from here. I still favor a bit of consolidation at least, but if that shoting star forms this week, it would make an evening star if the next week closed below the half way point of the previous up candle about $26 I think, then a significant correction is on the cards.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (11.28.2010) - US Dollar Index set for collapse *



endlessmountain | November 28, 2010 | 78 likes, 2 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## Logique

*Re: SILVER*

Some collapse.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...demand-for-precious-metal-as-alternative.html

Gold fell for the third straight session as a *strengthening dollar *eroded the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative asset. 

The euro fell to the lowest in two months against the dollar on speculation that Europe’s debt crisis will spread. *Investors also sought the U.S. currency as a haven amid concern* that the conflict between North Korea and South Korea will escalate. Before today, gold had gained 24 percent this year, touching a record $1,424.30 an ounce in New York on Nov. 9. 

“*We are seeing people turn to the dollar* and shedding risk assets,” said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. “Gold is having a tough time along with other risk assets.”


----------



## Logique

*Re: SILVER*

In the interests of balance.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Townsend/nov222010.html
*How HIGH Could Silver Go in December?*

John Townsend sees 3 to 4 good weeks ahead for silver (and gold). He tips silver to run to $30-$33 in this leg. Interesting his mention of the long historical consolidation period of 33 months, saying that this makes his predictions conservative.

Nice charts in this article, and some sage advice - worth a visit.


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*



Logique said:


> Some collapse.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...demand-for-precious-metal-as-alternative.html
> 
> Gold fell for the third straight session as a *strengthening dollar *eroded the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative asset.
> 
> The euro fell to the lowest in two months against the dollar on speculation that Europe’s debt crisis will spread. *Investors also sought the U.S. currency as a haven amid concern* that the conflict between North Korea and South Korea will escalate. Before today, gold had gained 24 percent this year, touching a record $1,424.30 an ounce in New York on Nov. 9.
> 
> “*We are seeing people turn to the dollar* and shedding risk assets,” said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. “Gold is having a tough time along with other risk assets.”




Well Paul Krugman did say America needs a war to recover the economy. I think the USD is just the flavor of the moment due to problems in Europe and Korea but the biggest problem the US hasn't changed much so i would still expect the USD to continue to loose value again soon. 

I read somewhere that the USD is fundamentally the most un-sound currency in the world, not sure how much truth there is to that but i'm sure its up there.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (11.29.2010) - Contest Update and Charts Update*



endlessmountain | 29 November 2010 | 26 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (11.30.2010) - Silver Breaks $28 resistance + AUD/USD Bonus Chart *



endlessmountain | 30 November 2010 | 3 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

The following article outlines what I was informed of a few years back and is why I loaded up and very bullish on silver.  The further we go the more my the early advice I was given seems to be correct.

Try to take the possibilities in with an open mind.

Found via the GATA website

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/i...-metals&catid=49:silver-commentary&Itemid=130

And silver continues to test the 30 year high for a break.  Could be soon


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*

I have difficulty buying silver for two reasons:
1 - The price is crazy volatile, one day its dropped a dollar, the next day its suddenly leaped a dollar. 
2 - The graph looks exponential, which typically indicates a bubble situation. Gold on the other hand (in USD), for instance, looks fairly linear over the recent years (although it is still damn difficult to time the market in the short-term). What I don't see is why the price of silver is going up so much so quickly. Is there a sudden industrial demand or supply contraction I am not aware of?
Cheers


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

It has just been a touch held back, now it is catch up time. You also really need to research the supply demand fundamentals, basically it is supply inelastic and to some degree demand inelastic. Add to that the fact that it is a monetary metal with a big variable in investment demand and you have an interesting cocktail given what is going on in the world.

If you think this is volatile just you wait and see what this gal can do when she really gets going.

2011 is going to be a good year for silver...!


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> I have difficulty buying silver for two reasons:
> 1 - The price is crazy volatile, one day its dropped a dollar, the next day its suddenly leaped a dollar.
> 2 - The graph looks exponential, which typically indicates a bubble situation. Gold on the other hand (in USD), for instance, looks fairly linear over the recent years (although it is still damn difficult to time the market in the short-term). What I don't see is why the price of silver is going up so much so quickly. Is there a sudden industrial demand or supply contraction I am not aware of?
> Cheers




He he.  Buy it when it drops a dollar then sell when it jumps up a dollar.

Seriously, silver is in a strong uptrend.  There are a lot of reasons for this and a simple Google study coud have you on the way.

Like gold it is regarded as a haven against currency devaluation.  As they are continuing to print more money out of thin air then that dilution will devalue paper money more each day and the p/m's will continue to rise. 

In past times silver was at a ratio of about 25 to 1 gold.  Today it is about 50 to 1.   If you read the article I gave the link to above (earlier today) the silver price in my view has been depressed.  They are still trying to cap it hence the extreme volatility.  It is in my view going to break up strongly soon.

The only way for me is to buy physical silver and take it in the hand.  You need to do your own research and I'd be interested in how you progress, feel free to ask further questions as you go along.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

15:1 was the fixed ratio at one time, when the US was on a metal standard.

It is one of the few things, along with gold, that buying 'falling knives' (with  some degree of skill applied) will not get you taken out on a stretcher. You need the stomach for it, but once you 'get it' you learn to love silver.


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> He he.  Buy it when it drops a dollar then sell when it jumps up a dollar.



Well if only it were so easy to guess which one it was going to do next . 
But again, my issue is with the shape of its price graph - it appears to have shot up real exponential-like. Yes, this may be driven by QE etc etc, but other commodities (like gold) haven't shot up to the same extent...


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

Silver will not fall while gold rises.

It is a small market, it will move far and fast both ways. Watch gold and trade silver but if it concerns you stay the heck away... it will be volatile, more so, not less from here.

I love this girl, but you have to understand her. I would encourage you to do the research, if you go into it superficially you will probably get toasted, if you get your head around this market it can be very rewarding.

oh yeah... ETPMAG, it is crazy illiquid IMO... don't go there


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

I went into ABC bullion Co. in Melbourne today and they got a big note saying 3 week wait for any silver orders. They told me they are completly out of silver and almost completly relying on people selling it back to them but that has almost stopped. 

interesting.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



nukz said:


> I went into ABC bullion Co. in Melbourne today and they got a big note saying 3 week wait for any silver orders. They told me they are completly out of silver and almost completly relying on people selling it back to them but that has almost stopped.
> 
> interesting.




And so it begins 

Go Silver


----------



## pixel

*Re: SILVER*



nukz said:


> I went into ABC bullion Co. in Melbourne today and they got a big note saying 3 week wait for any silver orders. They told me they are completly out of silver and almost completly relying on people selling it back to them but that has almost stopped.
> 
> interesting.




Perth Mint: "Bullion Trading is Now Closed"
However, coins are still available, of course trading at about 15% mark-up.

But check out this Canadian site:
http://www.store.firstmajestic.com/product_details.aspx?id=5
And the good thing about them is, they limit sales to 300oz/month and customer, thus ensuring it's a true retail sale. It seems when you import it into Australia it's free of GST and import duty as well.
May be worth giving them a try.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (12.02.10) - Trend is Higher in price and maybe Awareness as well* 




endlessmountain | 02 December 2010 | 17 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## skcots

*Re: SILVER*



nukz said:


> I went into ABC bullion Co. in Melbourne today and they got a big note saying 3 week wait for any silver orders. They told me they are completly out of silver and almost completly relying on people selling it back to them but that has almost stopped.
> 
> interesting.




That is interesting. I have been waiting for Canadian maple leafs to come back in stock for a couple of months and it occurred to me the other night that is probably because there is no supply.

Looks like BullionMark has no 10oz or 1kg perth mint bars either


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



skcots said:


> That is interesting. I have been waiting for Canadian maple leafs to come back in stock for a couple of months and it occurred to me the other night that is probably because there is no supply.
> 
> Looks like BullionMark has no 10oz or 1kg perth mint bars either




Demand to RCM for their maples (I believe US Mint has run out of eagles again?) is expected to be 50% higher than last year 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...may-surge-50-as-demand-rises-canada-says.html


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

The US Mint stops making ASE's toward the end of the year so they run out every year.... it is a predictable event.


----------



## Mr Z

*Bullion Trading is now closed...*

Also a predicable event...



> *What times of the day can I trade with The Perth Mint?*
> 
> Orders for bullion will be accepted between 8.30am and 4.30pm AWST* Monday to Friday, (excluding public holidays.)  * Please note Western Australia is at least 12 hours ahead of US time zones, at most 8 hours ahead of European time zones and plus or minus 2 hours of South East Asian time zones.




The dealers I talk to in the US have no supply issues with the majority of small product at the moment... premiums are still reasonable, a good indication of product supply.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> The US Mint stops making ASE's toward the end of the year so they run out every year.... it is a predictable event.




The event I am referring to is in June this year:



> Production of United States Mint American Eagle Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coins has been temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. Currently, all available silver bullion blanks are being allocated to the American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Program, as the United States Mint is required by Public Law 99-61 to produce these coins “in quantities sufficient to meet public demand . . . .”
> 
> The United States Mint will resume the American Eagle Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coin Programs once sufficient inventories of silver bullion blanks can be acquired to meet market demand for all three American Eagle Silver Coin products.




I just checked the mint website, they went back on sale 19th Nov.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

Ah... OK. 

Its just that we hear the same at the end of every year.

They didn't seem lose much in sales around June to November?!

Look at the ASE program over the last few years, the sales are an interesting reflection of the small guys investment interest in silver.

http://usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/index.cfm?action=sales&year=2010

Believe it or not they simply run out of the blanks (wrong word) to stamp the coins. Perth Mint supply the gold ones (why??!!), don't know about the silver.

I'm not a coin guy but my US friends are nuts for them.


----------



## Logique

*Re: SILVER*

A solid Monday in prospect for us. 

As I write this morning the US market is still open, but the $USD index has backed off, gold has gone above 1400 and silver above 29.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

Not much change in AUD, it was more about the USDX rolling over. USD cost base miners will do well Monday but the locals will probably still lag.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (12.04.2010) - Metals up again this week + Bonus USA Gasoline Price Chart *



endlessmountain | December 04, 2010 | 19 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverloig.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (12.06.2010) *



endlessmountain | December 06, 2010 | 28 likes, 1 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


Silver has gone over $30.18 USD per Ounce at the time I posted this.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

With silver cracking $30 in both currencies this morning there are some wild but worth reading (IMHO) reports flying around.

*$6,000 silver phew* like to see that.

Cheers to holders.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/downeyb120310.html

http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/94.cfm


----------



## Logique

*Re: SILVER*

Thanks Explod.
Nice work by Bill Downey, a fairly convincing scenario that he presents, and that's the best list of silver's various usages I've seen (gold-eagle link in your post above).
Classic reversal pattern in the RSI that developed in late Nov. Guess I'll have to hang on to my stock in that little explorer up in northern NSW. 







> Silver is increasingly being tapped for its bactericidal properties and water purification.



 Silver ions in water solution make a great no-rinse sanitizer for winemakers and brewers, I can vouch for that personally.


----------



## Worthless Paper

*Re: SILVER*

Will be interesting to see the ramifications of the proposed bank run in France tonight. Max Keiser chimed in calling for the citizens of Europe to pull their money out of the banks and buy physical silver. Takes courage chasing silver higher at these levels.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> *$6,000 silver phew* like to see that.




Yeah... I'd go buy a small country to live in.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> Yeah... I'd go buy a small country to live in.




Unload me silver to you Z and you can go.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Unload me silver to you Z and you can go.






Hmmmm... nope! I think I will be a seller at 6K


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> Hmmmm... nope! I think I will be a seller at 6K




Strewth, reckon I'll be very happy if it runs past 500.  Could buy my island and shout you a sleep over with the families.


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: SILVER*

Silver Arrow's Groenewegen Favors Silver over Gold :Video

The Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2010/12/03/VI2010120306259.html


----------



## Worthless Paper

*Re: SILVER*



skcots said:


> That is interesting. I have been waiting for Canadian maple leafs to come back in stock for a couple of months and it occurred to me the other night that is probably because there is no supply.
> 
> Looks like BullionMark has no 10oz or 1kg perth mint bars either




Has anyone seen Bullionmark's latest upgrade to their physical bullion trading platform? Some very cool charts - GS ratio on your own portfolio, lots of other goodies to tinker with. https://www.bullionmark.com.au/my-vault.html

Cheers for the Silver Arrow vid Gumby, enjoyed that.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

OK this guy has been busy today with his charts.


*The Silver Log (12.07.2010) - 685.4% Fibonacci Level is now being tested* 



*The Silver Log (12.07.2010) Part Two - Intermediate Trend nears $31.40*



The Silver Log (12.07.2010) Part 3 - Intra Day Crash.



endlessmountain | 07 December 2010 | 19 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (12.08.2010) Quick Analysis* 



endlessmountain | 08 December 2010 | 31 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (12.12.2010) - Technical Analysis* 



endlessmountain | 12 December 2010 | 28 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

I heard this morning on radio that JP Morgan have announced they will be reducing their silver short position. If i can get more details ill post them here.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (12.14.2010)* 



endlessmountain | 14 December 2010 | 39 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



nukz said:


> I heard this morning on radio that JP Morgan have announced they will be reducing their silver short position. If i can get more details ill post them here.




Should of been able to find a heap of info about it by now.  I've posted some links in the conspiracy theory thread.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (12.14.2010) - Gold and Silver analysis with ratio charts* 



endlessmountain | 14 December 2010 | 29 likes, 1 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (12.15.2010) - Failed Moves can create Fast Moves*



endlessmountain | 15 December 2010 | 20 likes, 0 dislikes

BLOG
http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com

Brain Shannons Pages
Youtube
http://www.youtube.com/thermal1

Blog
http://www.alphatrends.net


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

This was posted on another forum today.

"_*Just went to ABC Sydney to get a 1kg Silver bar. Apparently they run out of silver bars completely, no PAMP no ABC no nothing. The only thing they got left is 1x puny TON bar which is 50oz odd weight. Any order of silver bars have 1 month waiting period, as their supply will arrive in mid Jan 2011.*_"

Thought you guys might be interested


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (12.16.2010) - Making of the charts *



endlessmountain | December 16, 2010 | 21 likes, 1 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com

Spreadsheet used - Open Office


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (12.19.2010) *



endlessmountain | 19 December 2010 | 18 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*Four Stages of Silver*




endlessmountain | 20 December 2010 | 53 likes, 1 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (12.23.2010) *



endlessmountain | December 23, 2010 | 30 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (12.29.2010) - Market breaks out now awaiting confirmation *




endlessmountain | December 29, 2010 | 35 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (12.30.2010) - Markets holding the Tuesday rally well *



endlessmountain | December 30, 2010 | 32 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The silver Log (12.31.2010) - Silver closing over $30 this year. Happy New Year Silver Bugs *



endlessmountain | December 31, 2010 | 29 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*2011 Silver Forecast - $100 Likely*





endlessmountain | January 02, 2011 | 48 likes, 1 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com/2011...

The Peter Schiff video I am referring to reminded me of watching classic SNL when the hosts would seem a little out of it while they ridiculed the intelligent guest. SNL did this a lot back in the day. You can see the video of an SNL example and the Schiff page on the silverlog link above and the Schiff video is also on this link below

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PVCVyh7Hzw


----------



## qe2infinity

*Re: SILVER*

that's a lot of videos electronic master, THANKS!
sky is the limit for silver! lets hope no more manipulation by JP Morgan Chase...


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (01.04.2011) Very minor silver crash *




*The Silver Log (01.04.2011) - Part 2 Waiting for Retracement or Confirmation* 



endlessmountain | 04 January 2011 | 8 likes, 1 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*



qe2infinity said:


> that's a lot of videos electronic master, THANKS!
> sky is the limit for silver! lets hope no more manipulation by JP Morgan Chase...




Its strange how the manipulation badly effects the mines too.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (01.06.2011)*



endlessmountain | 06 January 2011 | 35 likes, 1 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (08.01.2010 to 01.06.2011 Timelapse)* 




endlessmountain | 06 January 2011 | 7 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com

Music by Rick Clarke
http://youtube.com/user/rickvanman


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (01.09.2011) - Giveaway Reminder - Current Resistance - Timelapse Test Run *



endlessmountain | 09 January 2011 | 28 likes, 2 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (01.11.2011) *



endlessmountain | 10 January 2011 | 43 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## Trex123

*Re: SILVER*

What factors do we consider before buy sliver for 1 Yr timeframe ?


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (01.13.2011) - 50 day average test seems looming*




endlessmountain | January 13, 2011 | 49 likes, 1 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com

The 50 day average has not been touched/tested since the breakout on Aug 24/2010. It is only 1% from its figure as of this text (01.13.2011 - 713pm EST)


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (01.15.2011) - Silver Still Holding $28.00 *



endlessmountain | January 15, 2011 | 39 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



Trex123 said:


> What factors do we consider before buy sliver for 1 Yr timeframe ?



Macroeconomic factors. The high price of silver at the moment is driven by increased investment, rather than increased industrial use. The investment stems from the recognition of silver as a money (a durable good of limited stock), and the appearance that the paper money stock has expanded and is likely to expand further in the near future. Same with gold.
People who do not want to buy silver think that the paper money stock will cease its expansion in the near future, and perhaps contract. People who do buy think the paper money stock will continue its expansion into the near future. Also, to some extent people may think its commodity value is going to rise in the near future, due to industrial supply and demand.


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> Macroeconomic factors. The high price of silver at the moment is driven by increased investment, rather than increased industrial use.




Correct tothemax6. That is the main thing anyone buying silver should consider. On the other side of the sentiment equation though, the "sum-of-all-fears" component is the minting of new money and the tangible value inherent in PMs should any G-20 sovereign state default. This may also be a factor in driving people toward investing in the metal. 


Not a silver investor
DYOR


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (01.18.2011) - The Head and Shoulders Pattern *



endlessmountain | 18 January 2011 | 37 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com

Rate of Increase on the Trendline is 0.712% per week


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*Precious Metals Default Scenarios - Bullion Bulls Canada Audio Article*




goldtothemoon | January 18, 2011 | 83 likes, 2 dislikes

Bullion Bulls Canada Audio Article for Jan 16 2011, 2011-01-16 , Written by: Jeff Nielson, Narrated by: Chad McNamara

Subscribe to us on youtube and get these audios weekly: http://itunes.apple.com/podcast/bulli...

Precious Metals Default Scenarios: read the full article @ http://www.BullionBullsCanada.com | Sponsored by: http://www.SilverGoldBull.com | http://bullionbullscanada.com/podcast/



For obvious reasons, there has been a great deal of discussion about actual, formal "defaults" in the gold and silver markets. Among those "obvious reasons" is that informal defaults are apparently already taking place in both markets.

Beginning in the London gold market over a year ago, and now rumored to be occurring in New York's "Comex" silver futures market, buyers who have legally contracted to take "physical delivery" of the metals they have purchased are said to be accepting large, paper bribes to accept a "cash settlement" instead.


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (01.20.2011) - They tell us higher interest rates is strong for the fiat dollars *



endlessmountain | 20 January 2011 | 47 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (01.24.2011) Heading closer to the $25-$26 target with another down day*



endlessmountain | 24 January 2011 | 20 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*CFTC Delays 60-Day Notification To Assist Manipulators*

http://www.roadtoroota.com

http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/504.cfm




> *Bix Weir
> Printer-Friendly Format
> 
> OPEN LETTER TO THE CFTC
> 
> January 25, 2011
> 
> Commodities Futures Trading Commission
> 
> 3 Lafayette Center
> 
> 1155 21st St. NW Washington, DC 50581
> 
> Re: CFTC Delays 60-Day Notification To Assist Manipulators
> 
> Commissioners:
> 
> On January 13, 2011 the CFTC held a hearing on the Implementation of Position Limits for the Dodd-Frank Act that was mandated by the US Congress to be implemented on January 17, 2011. This meeting was a continuation of the same meeting held in December on the same topic. As of today, January 25, 2011, Position Limits have NOT been implemented and thus the CFTC is currently in violation of the laws of the United States Congress. The reasoning behind the current delay? "There must be a 60 day notice period"...
> 
> SO WHERE IS IT? WHERE IS THE 60 DAY NOTIFICATION ANNOUNCEMENT? WHY WON'T YOU START THE CLOCK TICKING EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE IN VIOLATION OF THE LAW?*




you can read the rest via the URL provided )


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (01.27.2011) - Gold to Silver Ratio remains below 50* 




endlessmountain | 27 January 2011 | 28 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (02.03.2011) - Breakout to $29.00 *




endlessmountain | February 03, 2011 | 44 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## andrewnz

*Re: SILVER*

USD getting dumped by neighbour  

http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3...an-government-successfully-sheds-th#more16184


----------



## Logique

*Re: SILVER*

One to warm the hearts of precious metals bulls, and especially silver bulls. Some useful charts as well. Extract parags from the full article. My underlines.

*Day Of De-Bottom* By Warren Bevan, Feb 7, 2011
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Bevan/feb072011.html

'...While de-parture didn’t occur, de-bottom seems to have for Silver and Gold. Even US indices are shedding off all the calls for a correction in what is an unprecedented run higher. Markets don’t work like this unless they are being propped up.

It looks like our move to a bearish posture was incorrect and we are now slightly offsides. It’s never fun, but it will be made back quickly and with Gold and Silver breaking out trading profits are never far away...'

'...A report was received recently where it was said that the Chinese Central Bank is going to increase their Gold reserves, and Silver as well.  It was said that they would be using the recent weakness as an opportunity to buy both metals. It doesn’t surprise me to hear this about Gold, and I may not have even mentioned it here. But to hear this about Silver is stunning.

Many societies, including China, have been on Silver standards in the past, and while it is industrial, it is also precious and can be argued as to have many of the same monetary values and features as does Gold. In the past Gold was used more for wealth storage, while Silver was used in day to day transactions due to it’s cheaper price.

It’s beyond what I can put into words how positive this is for Silver, if true. I guarantee if China begins buying Silver as reserves, many other countries will follow.

It’s no secret that I’ve been much more bullish Silver than Gold for years and my portfolio reflects that tremendously. Last year was amazing to say the least. And better years are ahead!

$200 Silver may seem cheap in a few years. No joke....'


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (02.07.2011)* 



endlessmountain | 07 February 2011 | 40 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (02.08.2011) - back over 30 US fiat notes *



endlessmountain | 08 February 2011 | 19 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## Bullion Money

*Re: SILVER*



electronicmaster said:


> *The Silver Log (02.08.2011) - back over 30 US fiat notes *
> 
> 
> 
> endlessmountain | 08 February 2011 | 19 likes, 0 dislikes
> 
> http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com





Hey Electronicmaster!

Nice blog and great analysis. I just joined the forum and watched a couple of youre videos. Keep up the good work.

Noticed people arnt commenting much on this thread but I appreciate the time you have put in this!

Cheers, Ossie


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Bullion Money said:


> Hey Electronicmaster!
> 
> Nice blog and great analysis. I just joined the forum and watched a couple of youre videos. Keep up the good work.
> 
> Noticed people arnt commenting much on this thread but I appreciate the time you have put in this!
> 
> Cheers, Ossie




Little comment needed it is all good.   The following from the Gotgold report:

"Current Silver Definition Move Not Like the Others
For those who may be wondering what they might have missed in Sunday’s full Got Gold Report, posted on the password-protected subscriber pages and emailed to subscribers this past weekend, below is a short excerpt from the report.   It is two pages of a 23-page update for Vultures, our valued subscribers." 

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/02/current-silver-definition-move-not-like-the-others.html


----------



## Bullion Money

*Re: SILVER*

Will be looking forward to yo're anaylis on silver charts for the last couple nights!!

Very intersting!


----------



## Bullion Money

*Re: SILVER*



Bullion Money said:


> Will be looking forward to yo're anaylis on silver charts for the last couple nights!!
> 
> Very intersting!




Wow the chart looks like its about to rocket off tonight...
amazing action.


----------



## Joe Blow

*Re: SILVER*



Bullion Money said:


> Wow the chart looks like its about to rocket off tonight...
> amazing action.




Feel free to post up some silver charts in this thread. Only takes a minute and adds a lot of value.


----------



## Mailmancp

*Re: SILVER  TRO:ASX  TriAusMin  Great article!*

With Silver going up TRO:ASX is getting more and more unappreciated everyday.   This company is sitting on great deposit in Australia.   They have lead, zinc, silver, some gold and I didnt mention that their silver deposit is very large.

The stock has been moving on up nicely.   It closed in Toronto on the TSX today at .22cents (TOR: TSX).   Last closed at .19 cents in Australia.

Here is some information from a recent article from Silicon investor in the USA on TriAusMin.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TRIAUSMIN Ltd. (TSX: TOR; ASX:TRO) $0.18

Dual Listed TSX and Australia

TRIAUSMIN Ltd is focused on the exploration and development of base and precious metal projects within the Lachlan Fold Belt of New South Wales, Australia. TRIAUSMIN is focused on generating positive cash flow from its inventory of Mineral Resources as well as achieving exploration success in the prospective Lachlan Fold Belt of New South Wales, Australia.

http://www.trioriginminerals.com.au/

Shares out: 138,514,734

Approximately 45% owned by top 20 shareholders including Tri Origin Exploration: http://www.trioriginminerals.com.au/investor.asp?id=8 

Company presentation: http://www.trioriginminerals.com.au/documents/TriAusMin Corp Overview Nov 2010.pdf

Very experienced management team and board. http://www.TRIAUSMIN.com/board.asp 

Significant new director who recently bought 6.2 million shares: http://www.TRIAUSMIN.com/documents/101118 TriAusMin appoints James Gill as Director.pdf

TRIAUSMIN has in excess of 28 million tonnes of Mineral Resources, including Woodlawn Retreatment Project (11.7 Mt), Woodlawn Underground Project (10.1 Mt), and Lewis Ponds Project (6.6 Mt).

Woodlawn Retreatment Project: http://www.TRIAUSMIN.com/projects.asp?id=4 

• Total Resource converted to an Ore Reserve of 11.2 Mt grading 2.2% zinc, 1.3% lead, 0.5% copper, 0.3g/t gold and 32g/t silver*
• Contained Metal (approximate):
• 580 million lbs zinc
• 340 million lbs lead
• 120 million lbs copper
• 13 million oz silver
• 123,000 oz gold
* JORC and CIM standard compliant – see full technical report dated December 15, 2009

Independent 43-101 Technical Report by Scott Wilson
Roscoe Postle Associates Inc. (December 15, 2009)
• Estimated 7.7 year life at 1.5 Mtpa milling rate
• Average annual payable production of 37 million lbs of zinc, 7 million lbs of copper, 7 million lbs of lead, 2,000 ounces of gold and 371,000 ounces of silver
• Total payable production of 560,000 tonnes of zinc, copper and lead concentrates containing 125,000 tonnes of zinc, 24,000 tonnes of copper, 25,000 tonnes of lead, 18,000 ounces of gold and 2.8 million ounces of silver
• Development capital ~ A$75 million
• Pre-tax NPV at 8% is A$68 million at long term metal prices(1)
• Internal rate of return is 23% after-tax(1)
Notes: 1 – Weighted average Bloomberg Long term Consensus Prices as published on Feb 19, 2010: Gold US$1,113/oz, 
Silver US$16.34oz, Zinc US$2,146/tonne, Copper US$5,464/tonne and Lead US$1,711/tonne; AUD:USD Exchange Rate = 0.80

Woodlawn Underground Project: http://www.TRIAUSMIN.com/projects.asp?id=13

• Contained metal (approximate):
• 2 billion lbs zinc
• 900 million lbs lead
• 400 million lbs copper
• 30 million oz silver
• 195,000 oz gold
• Approximately 2 MT mineable
• Targeting additional ~ 3 MT extensions or repetitions to resource

Lewis Ponds Project: http://www.TRIAUSMIN.com/projects.asp?id=6 

-Gold and base metal deposit discovered and partially delineated
-JORC compliant Mineral Resource (completed in 2004) of 6.35 Mt of Indicated Mineral Resources containing 349,000 ounces gold, 16 million ounces silver, 160,000 tonnes zinc & 90,000 tonnes lead
-Deposit open at depth and along strike
-Nearby mineral occurrences & geophysical targets remain to be tested by drilling

Total contained metals

Approximately 
667,000 oz gold
59 million oz silver
520 million lbs copper
2.7 billion lbs zinc
1.3 billion lbs lead

Prior to the financial meltdown in 2008 Triausmin had a market capitalization in excess of $125 million, today approximately $25 million.

This company is being viewed as a base metal company with out recognizing the significant silver and gold resource.

Comparable companies trading significantly higher.

At current prices the combined contained metal value is approximately $9.375 Billion. Projects are located in a mining friendly location with well established infrastructure. Newmont and Newcrest have very significant deposits and/or mines in the near vicinity.

Positive feasibility study confirms profit potential.

There is tremendous upside drilling potential. Aggressive drilling plans should be announced very soon.

The recent announcement that Sprott Asset Management will be funding the company for $3.2 million is extremely positive and should be a short term catalyst for the share price. Eric Sprott is considered one of the best asset managers in the world and one of the most vocal silver bulls.

In my opinion TOR.T is a grossly undervalued near term producer with tremendous upside drilling potential. The company has very good exposure to three of the strongest metals, silver, gold and copper. The company has been given zero value for it's tremendous exploration potential particularly at Lewis Ponds which was responsible for driving the predesessor's company's share price to over $4


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Silver, having lifted by $7 over the last month or so looks set to really lift now that it is clear of the $30 area.

The following by Dan Norcini gives a perspective of the shorts being squeezed right out.  You be the judge but pleased to have physical:-

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/what-is-commercial-signal-failure.html

Probably relates to the gold thread but few seem to be that interested anymore and really its all been said to the converted anyway.

Cheers to holders your day is nigh.  IMHO only.


----------



## Bullion Money

*Re: SILVER*

Pretty violent moves with silver the last few days...

Im hoping it drops to 30-31 and then lifts off again.

Gives everyone a chance to enter and feel they still got a bargain.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

*Re: SILVER*

PEX - Peel Exploration could be a way to get on the silver bandwagon although on the speccie end of town they have dredged up some old results that could be a gem in the making. The new tenements look quite prospective for the old shiny grey metal, this illiquid stock may see further action if they wave a drill rig over the top of their best anomaly. I'll be watcing for BESBS entry.


----------



## damien275x

*Re: SILVER*

Question - Is there any point buying silver if silver is priced in US dollars? 
Price is going up while the USD goes down, but what does that mean for us in AUS? No profit?


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



damien275x said:


> Question - Is there any point buying silver if silver is priced in US dollars?
> Price is going up while the USD goes down, but what does that mean for us in AUS? No profit?



The idea is that when the inflation starts to take off in foreign currencies, the demand for silver and gold as a money in those countries will take off too (as they offer inflation protection). Since Australia and consumers from other countries are all competing for the same stock of silver, the price must go up in AUD as well, due to the increased demand. The price will of course go up more in USD, EUR, JPY etc, due to the falling values of those currencies. 

It is possible to buy the silver with USD indirectly, as many FX brokers offer "XAG/USD". Buying XAG/USD buys the silver with borrowed USD, using the AUD in your account as margin.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



damien275x said:


> Question - Is there any point buying silver if silver is priced in US dollars?
> Price is going up while the USD goes down, but what does that mean for us in AUS? No profit?




I have, and have also encouraged the rest of the family to buy 1966 silver 50 cent coins which contain 80% silver.

Back when we began about 2004 they were about 3 dollars each, I purchased a large amount three years ago at $5.50 and now they are worth about $11

In my view with the printing of money which as the big part of inflation it makes little difference overall.

So to save your spare money buy some physical silver every now and again.  It adds up.

I buy direct over the counter at Wrights or Davis in Melbourne but you will see plenty still on ebay too.


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> I have, and have also encouraged the rest of the family to buy 1966 silver 50 cent coins which contain 80% silver.
> Back when we began about 2004 they were about 3 dollars each, I purchased a large amount three years ago at $5.50 and now they are worth about $11
> In my view with the printing of money which as the big part of inflation it makes little difference overall.
> So to save your spare money buy some physical silver every now and again.  It adds up.
> I buy direct over the counter at Wrights or Davis in Melbourne but you will see plenty still on ebay too.



Wouldn't it be more cost effective to buy the 1kg slabs?


----------



## Bullion Money

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> Wouldn't it be more cost effective to buy the 1kg slabs?




Its good to have a bit of variety in both silver and gold.

Silver 1kg bars are great now but if Silver keeps going the way it is, the average investor will find it difficult to afford the 1kg bars.

Also for liquidity purpose its nice to have small denoms of gold/silver in case you need to offload quickly.

While finding a buyer for 1kg of gold it not difficult but you will find for 1oz or 10gram buyers are lined up far and long...


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> Wouldn't it be more cost effective to buy the 1kg slabs?




I initially purchased 5 kilo bars within my super fund back in 05 and since then 1 kilo bars.  But the smaller denominations are good for the Grandchildren/teenager group to get the idea and to save as well.

I am also of the school that believes that like Argentina 30 years ago we are going to have a financial event soon that will mean all banks will lock up and no cash will be available.  P/m coins will be very valuabe for needs such as food.  However security issues are another matter as well and need to be considered.

Silver broke to a new 31 year high this morning and in my view there is not a lot of resistance now till we hit the old spike of $50


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (03.27.2011) Silver and Gold Analysis *


Uploaded by endlessmountain on Mar 27, 2011

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com

Word Jumble:
AAEEFFILMNOORSTY
Clue - Another way for saying "articles wanted" in classifieds


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> I am also of the school that believes that like Argentina 30 years ago we are going to have a financial event soon that will mean all banks will lock up and no cash will be available.  P/m coins will be very valuabe for needs such as food.  However security issues are another matter as well and need to be considered.



I don't see how this can be. If you look at the world interest rates, AUD is really good. If everywhere had currencies like AUD non of us would be investing in PMs. The inflation you fear is valid for citizens of the US, Japan, Europe, UK, who have been busily printing money like its a newspaper. I don't see the cause for fear over _here_.
Also, very few Australians today consider silver or gold to be a money, or even know there was a time when it was. So I don't see them suddenly accepting it as tender.


----------



## Bullion Money

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> I don't see how this can be. If you look at the world interest rates, AUD is really good. If everywhere had currencies like AUD non of us would be investing in PMs. The inflation you fear is valid for citizens of the US, Japan, Europe, UK, who have been busily printing money like its a newspaper. I don't see the cause for fear over _here_.
> Also, very few Australians today consider silver or gold to be a money, or even know there was a time when it was. So I don't see them suddenly accepting it as tender.




Oh my friend soon you will, soon you will. 10-15 years ago not many average investors were buying shares, now its normal day talk.
All a circle.
When World Was hitting Germany not many people were buying gold/silver but those who did were extremely rich in a very short time...


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: SILVER*

Will 'How much for cash?' become an old outdated antiquated adage? :

*Bullish outlook for silver on surging industrial demand* -Silver Institute/GFMS

A report released by the Silver Institute says silver's industrial uses are the largest component of silver fabrication demand, and should continue to rise sharply by 2015.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted:  Tuesday , 29 Mar 2011

RENO, NV - 

A GFMS report for the Silver Institute predicts a bullish picture for the future of industrial silver demand with a record high of 665.9 million ounces in 2015.

READ MORE HERE -> http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=123886&sn=Detail&pid=102055


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*

I am not posting much in the gold and silver threads anymore mainly due to the content of other posters.

But this one was too awesome not to share:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/256675-silver-wheaton-ceo-not-thinking-about-hedging-silver-until-50

*Silver Wheaton CEO Not Thinking About Hedging Silver Until $50 *


> The number $50 per ounce appeared in another discussion about silver. I first came across this target in James Turk’s theory about three stages for silver’s bull market with stage 2 beginning at $50. This time $50/ounce came up in an interview with Silver Wheaton’s CEO, Peter Barnes, as he discussed SLW’s earnings results on CNBC (video below).
> 
> Barnes noted that some “reputable banks” have made predictions for silver to hit $50/ounce by the end of the year. He thinks silver will definitely go through $50 in the next 2-3 years, but it “could be quicker.” Barnes’s bullishness was confirmed when he stated that hedging the company’s silver is nowhere on the horizon; hedging *might *be considered once silver hits $50.


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: SILVER*

Yeh that 1kg silver paperweight i have is starting to be worth a bit  Nice little xmas present a couple years ago


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



prawn_86 said:


> Yeh that 1kg silver paperweight i have is starting to be worth a bit  Nice little xmas present a couple years ago




Nice one. Net notional risk on XMAS presents, $0!

Personally with these levels in the GOLD:SILVER ratio, I will be converting most of the silver I accumulated since Apr 2009 (a lot, all unleveraged) back into physical gold and holding a much smaller silver position. 

Maybe the ratio continues to decline from here, I am still ok with my decision and will just defer silver purchases in lieu of gold purchases: for the first time in ages and ages gold has started to become cheap in terms of silver. Happy to take advantage while it remains in effect.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Industial demand on the rise.

http://resourceinvestingnews.com/14749-report-the-future-of-silver-industrial-demand.html

On the gold/silver ratio as mentioned above it has come a long way down in the last year or so.  However it is still a bit above the mean and it has a lot of buying momentum at the moment.   As a trend follower, I believe on this alone that we will not see a blow off till silver goes to its lower ratio of about 15 to 1.   Till then I am happy to hold tight.

Notice Ron Paul is upset at a shortage of bullion coins, says it is not good enough so is pushing for a US Senate enquiry.  The attention to this point could be interesting.


----------



## DB008

*Re: SILVER*

Thanks for that article explod.


----------



## damien275x

*Re: SILVER*

I also think there is going to be a big currency crisis in the short term future
I just bought 20,000 of silver. It's kind of scary being 21 going against the advice of everyone I know but I have done my research and I fully believe everyone else is wrong this time. Hopefully will come out on top.


----------



## damien275x

*Re: SILVER*



damien275x said:


> I also think there is going to be a big currency crisis in the short term future
> I just bought 20,000 of silver. It's kind of scary being 21 going against the advice of everyone I know but I have done my research and I fully believe everyone else is wrong this time. Hopefully will come out on top.




Also - because i'm just randomly buying silver off the net here and there
AShould you declare capital gains when you sell it? Or just sell it for cash in small amounts


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> On the gold/silver ratio as mentioned above it has come a long way down in the last year or so.  However it is still a bit above the mean and it has a lot of buying momentum at the moment.   As a trend follower, I believe on this alone that we will not see a blow off till silver goes to its lower ratio of about 15 to 1.   Till then I am happy to hold tight.




explod, please provide basis for your claims:

1. Which mean are you referring to?
2. The ratio has not been 15:1 for a long time, on what basis do you believe there will be a blow off once the old (possibly DEFUNCT) ratio is reached?


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

20,000 oz... randomly... here and there... 21... circa 750K...


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



sinner said:


> explod, please provide basis for your claims:
> 
> 1. Which mean are you referring to?
> 2. The ratio has not been 15:1 for a long time, on what basis do you believe there will be a blow off once the old (possibly DEFUNCT) ratio is reached?




While there is no reason why it will not be seen again I can't see that there is any fundamental basis compelling that particular ratio. In times gone by when gold and silver where in a fixed monetary relationship I believe around 15:1 was chosen because it reflected the rough supply and mining ratio... also supposedly the ratio it exists in the earth (???) Mining tech has moved on and things have changed  so why it should be relevant now I have no idea!

I am also not sure it is the mean...


----------



## TabJockey

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> 20,000 oz... randomly... here and there... 21... circa 750K...




Pretty sure he means $20,000 worth.

I believe that 20k silver is a good short term investment, allot of sentiment and solid fundamentals suggest a run to $50 however i'm not so sure about long term, ride the bull while it runs but at this pace it will run out of puff within the next 2 years.

Also the bullion bugs that are riding on the glory of high silver and gold prices are starting to get a little bit annoying. Yes precious metals are at all time highs, no the world currencies are not about to collapse. If you want to buy bullion to hedge against a complete financial meltdown then that's up to you but don't consider it a "big possibility". It is a very remote risk.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

I'd not be buying here although my technical work projects mid 40's for silver. We will likely see $25 again this summer, there can't be much more than 6 to 10 weeks left in this move. It has been epic but it is in the final quarter IMO.

20K... oh! I think in oz's not $


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



TabJockey said:


> Yes precious metals are at all time highs, no the world currencies are not about to collapse. If you want to buy bullion to hedge against a complete financial meltdown then that's up to you but don't consider it a "big possibility". It is a very remote risk.




"...very remote..."   we had a very near one in 07/08, very remote, interesting.  It is usually worthwhile putting up some reasoning behind a statement like that Tabjockey.

http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles archive/2010.11.22 gold and cash.htm

Just a starter, will seek out some more as time permits.


----------



## TabJockey

*Re: SILVER*

Yeah there are a very large amount of blog's and websites that proclaim the existence of UFO's, just because there is a large amount of material on the interwebs does not mean that its "probably legit".

If you really want to research an issue and be able to provide solid evidence for one side of an argument then I reckon unbiased academic journals are probably your best bet.


----------



## disarray

*Re: SILVER*



TabJockey said:


> unbiased academic journals are probably your best bet.




no such thing exists


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



disarray said:


> no such thing exists




Waddaya mean! Anything I write is completely unbiased


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

If a Company issues more shares. a common complaint and rightly in my view, the value of the existing shares are diluted.   If money is printed without matching GDP then (even without inflation/deflation being considered) the value is being diluted.

And if, and a great example is before the Federal Court today as we speak, like Centro we borrow not only beyond our equity base but our means to pay it back we gradually go carputt.  The US are doing just that and yesterday I put up a link that says Aussies may be doing the same thing.  There is a lot of mounting evidence that were may be going down the tubes and that is not from some remote academic as you say but from ordinary everyday facts that we can all relate to.

What I object to is the arrogance of saying it is "...very remote..."  when just maybe it is not.

Silver has been a very great long term addition to my Super Fund and there are no signs saying I should sell just yet.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



sinner said:


> explod, please provide basis for your claims:
> 
> 1. Which mean are you referring to?
> 2. The ratio has not been 15:1 for a long time, on what basis do you believe there will be a blow off once the old (possibly DEFUNCT) ratio is reached?




Apologies sinner, hve been pre-occupied on other matters of late.

1. was referring to the average which I understood long term was less that where we are yet.

2. the link put up on the growing shortage and increasing industrial demand indicates the silver price must rise.


----------



## jimmyizgod

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> If a Company issues more shares. a common complaint and rightly in my view, the value of the existing shares are diluted.   If money is printed without matching GDP then (even without inflation/deflation being considered) the value is being diluted.
> 
> And if, and a great example is before the Federal Court today as we speak, like Centro we borrow not only beyond our equity base but our means to pay it back we gradually go carputt.  The US are doing just that and yesterday I put up a link that says Aussies may be doing the same thing.  There is a lot of mounting evidence that were may be going down the tubes and that is not from some remote academic as you say but from ordinary everyday facts that we can all relate to.
> 
> What I object to is the arrogance of saying it is "...very remote..."  when just maybe it is not.
> 
> Silver has been a very great long term addition to my Super Fund and there are no signs saying I should sell just yet.




forget silver - id add powdered milk and army rations to my super fund


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Apologies sinner, hve been pre-occupied on other matters of late.
> 
> 1. was referring to the average which I understood long term was less that where we are yet.




This is extremely subjective and not the best way to look at it. Face it: If you go back to a 100 year average, we are talking market sentiment on vastly different numbers of "global gold and silver underground". Massive new supplies *have* popped up in the last 100 years, the ratio nor its mean will be the same as it always has. The ratio can and SHOULD adjust based on the market sentiment of how much gold and silver are left in the earths crust. So a longer term avg is meaningless.



> 2. the link put up on the growing shortage and increasing industrial demand indicates the silver price must rise.




and they magically know it must rise to 15:1? Come on dude.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



sinner said:


> This is extremely subjective and not the best way to look at it. Face it: If you go back to a 100 year average, we are talking market sentiment on vastly different numbers of "global gold and silver underground". Massive new supplies *have* popped up in the last 100 years, the ratio nor its mean will be the same as it always has. The ratio can and SHOULD adjust based on the market sentiment of how much gold and silver are left in the earths crust. So a longer term avg is meaningless.
> 
> 
> 
> and they magically know it must rise to 15:1? Come on dude.




S i g h h,  we all only see what we want to and that is fair enough.   I like to follow researched fundamentals and trends, not what the Reserve Bank Governor says or some Doctor representing the a big bank, seems they never qualify their projections with any (let alone) sound reason.  That link and any others I put up do.

But of course the professional investment industry are unable to gain percentages off trades or trailing fees from those who invest in physical p/m's.  So of course they are going to go out of their way to can Johnny come lately ratbags like myself, who is just trying to preserve his money and keep it away from the vultures.

When I ditched my financial adviser in 2002, the last in a line of three I have never looked back.  Anyway each to his own.

And I have just picked up a new indicator on looking back the last year.  Every time we have negative attacks on these p/m threads the price seems to break out north.  Funny thing that.

Anyway we shall see.


----------



## damien275x

*Re: SILVER*

I disagree I really think the USA economy is going to continue to go downhill
You can't print money backed by nothing. Even I know that. Hopeless!


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



damien275x said:


> I disagree I really think the USA economy is going to continue to go downhill
> You can't print money backed by nothing. Even I know that. Hopeless!




Spot on, plain and simple as it can be clearly seen.


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> S i g h h,  we all only see what we want to and that is fair enough.   I like to follow researched fundamentals and trends, not what the Reserve Bank Governor says or some Doctor representing the a big bank, seems they never qualify their projections with any (let alone) sound reason.  That link and any others I put up do.
> 
> But of course the professional investment industry are unable to gain percentages off trades or trailing fees from those who invest in physical p/m's.  So of course they are going to go out of their way to can Johnny come lately ratbags like myself, who is just trying to preserve his money and keep it away from the vultures.
> 
> When I ditched my financial adviser in 2002, the last in a line of three I have never looked back.  Anyway each to his own.
> 
> And I have just picked up a new indicator on looking back the last year.  Every time we have negative attacks on these p/m threads the price seems to break out north.  Funny thing that.
> 
> Anyway we shall see.




Great post.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> S i g h h,  we all only see what we want to and that is fair enough.   I like to follow researched fundamentals and trends, not what the Reserve Bank Governor says or some Doctor representing the a big bank, seems they never qualify their projections with any (let alone) sound reason.  That link and any others I put up do.
> 
> But of course the professional investment industry are unable to gain percentages off trades or trailing fees from those who invest in physical p/m's.  So of course they are going to go out of their way to can Johnny come lately ratbags like myself, who is just trying to preserve his money and keep it away from the vultures.
> 
> When I ditched my financial adviser in 2002, the last in a line of three I have never looked back.  Anyway each to his own.
> 
> And I have just picked up a new indicator on looking back the last year.  Every time we have negative attacks on these p/m threads the price seems to break out north.  Funny thing that.
> 
> Anyway we shall see.




What is so amusing is that even though I'm a silver and gold bull, repeatedly posting both short term and long term thoughts on the topic since 2008, every single time I call you on your unfounded posts (which in any other thread would be much less acceptable) then I am somehow equated with the "other side" aka bad guys, who reckon silver is going to $1 or something.

As if! 

I ask which longer term mean, and you say: "was referring to the average which I understood long term was less that where we are yet".

Sure dude, and somehow the article explains all. You follow researched fundamentals but won't actually explain them in any specific terms. 

Calling you on this, somehow makes me one of the guys trying to "can you" who's just seeing what he wants to see?



Well I am calling you out again, I would like to see just 1, 1 time where you post a GOLD:SILVER ratio chart, with your thoughts marked out. It's not necessary, but I would love to see this "long term mean" you keep referring to.




How exactly, are we below this long term mean (the chart is a bit old, we are at 37 currently FYI)?


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: SILVER*



sinner said:


> What is so amusing is that even though I'm a silver and gold bull, repeatedly posting both short term and long term thoughts on the topic since 2008, every single time I call you on your unfounded posts (which in any other thread would be much less acceptable) then I am somehow equated with the "other side" aka bad guys, who reckon silver is going to $1 or something.
> 
> As if!
> 
> I ask which longer term mean, and you say: "was referring to the average which I understood long term was less that where we are yet".
> 
> Sure dude, and somehow the article explains all. You follow researched fundamentals but won't actually explain them in any specific terms.
> 
> Calling you on this, somehow makes me one of the guys trying to "can you" who's just seeing what he wants to see?
> 
> 
> 
> Well I am calling you out again, I would like to see just 1, 1 time where you post a GOLD:SILVER ratio chart, with your thoughts marked out. It's not necessary, but I would love to see this "long term mean" you keep referring to.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How exactly, are we below this long term mean (the chart is a bit old, we are at 37 currently FYI)?




Do you have a price target sinner?  We know you mate.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

When we are in the final stages of this thing the finical industry will be setup to profit from PM's and they will be pushing them. ETF's are just the beginning of this change IMO.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



GumbyLearner said:


> Do you have a price target sinner?  We know you mate.




At this price, *no* I have repeatedly stated:

That at these prices I would prefer for the Aussie dollar to do it's thing and keep the prices down as much as possible allowing me to buy more ounces for the same dollars.

Anyone using price targets from the Hunt brothers squeeze, or older, are full of it IMHO. Trendline projections are about the only remaining useful tool at these 30y breakout levels!

At this time last year, 1AUD bought literally twice as much silver as it does today. Happy to *hold* the physical silver I've been buying at lower prices, but much less happy to add more at these levels when gold remains *relatively* attractive.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

Gold is due to redress the balance IMO... from here into the up coming midterm high.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> Gold is due to redress the balance IMO... from here into the up coming midterm high.




Why?


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Why?




This is a driven futures event, IMO gold has been used to help cover a large difficult to exit position in silver. This is my read of the relative price action, COT data, Comex data etc. I believe that the brakes are now coming off gold which could well keep the ratio steady or moving into golds favor. Either way, before May, and if you are not going to cash, you need to be trading the ratio and moving to gold.



JMO.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> if you are not going to cash, you need to be trading the ratio and moving to gold.
> 
> 
> 
> JMO.




I fully concur. Not to mention, gold is not the only thing cheap in silver right now!


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

Did I say "driven futures"....  I meant  "futures driven" ! Dyslexia rules KO!  :


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

http://moneymorning.com/ppc/Silver_1210_c.php?code=X304M103&gclid=CNDMrv6Qi6gCFcSBpAodpFmtCQ

US$150 to 250 this year.

Another dud forcaster maybe?

Pow, blam, duck.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> http://moneymorning.com/ppc/Silver_1210_c.php?code=X304M103&gclid=CNDMrv6Qi6gCFcSBpAodpFmtCQ
> 
> US$150 to 250 this year.
> 
> Another dud forcaster maybe?
> 
> Pow, blam, duck.









But... never say never


----------



## Agentm

*Re: SILVER*


----------



## Logique

*Re: SILVER*

That's what I like to hear Explod. 
Money Morning also say that silver will beat gold this year. I see that Gold:Silver is at 36.8, which is well down from the mid-40s level earlier in the year. 



> http://moneymorning.com/ppc/Silver_1210_c.php?code=X304M103&gclid=CNDMrv6Qi6gCFcSBpAodpFmtCQ
> 
> ...And with Ben Bernanke and the fellas at the Federal Reserve doing their best to crush the dollar, you can bet silver will keep going up this year.
> 
> Based on history and the dismal dollar, silver prices could reach $150 per ounce this year.
> 
> But nearly half of all silver doesn't get turned into coins, bullion bars or jewelry. Instead, it's used by industry to make everything from mirrors and musical instruments to methanol and medical equipment.
> 
> And with industrial demand finally returning after the 2008 crash, silver prices could soar even higher. Silver could be in for the ride of a lifetime, with prices reaching as high as $250 per ounce by the end of the year...


----------



## DB008

*Re: SILVER*

Broke the $40 US barrier a few hours ago (sitting @$40.20US). See how it holds out tonight...$50 is the next psychological barrier.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

Now if someone could just take the AUD out to the woodshed  :


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> Now if someone could just take the AUD out to the woodshed  :




Unfortunately this whole story is more about USD weakness. Will take a serious turnaround from Obama and Uncle Sam to get the AUD/USD cross back down into the 80's


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

Silver has a bit more than USD weakness going for it and of late we have seen the USD and the precious metals move in tandem quite often. I don't think that it is anywhere near that simple anymore. This is more a game of track the liquidity through the crazy maze.


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> Silver has a bit more than USD weakness going for it and of late we have seen the USD and the precious metals move in tandem quite often. I don't think that it is anywhere near that simple anymore. This is more a game of track the liquidity through the crazy maze.




Sorry i was referring to the AUD/USD, not silver overall.


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: SILVER*



prawn_86 said:


> Unfortunately this whole story is more about USD weakness. Will take a serious turnaround from Obama and Uncle Sam to get the AUD/USD cross back down into the 80's




Personally I think the Silver story is just as much about rampant speculation these days as USD weakness

:run:


----------



## Frank D

*Re: SILVER*

*Silver*

I think Silver is a long term LONG play, as in BUY the dips...

However, it's too high now in the Primary and Secondary cycles.

Next long term BUY would be around the 3-month lows or in the 3rd Quarter, 
setting up for further gains in 2012


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

The COT data looks like we are setting up for a short term top and a fight for $40. FWIW the small specs look vulnerable here so unless the large specs have got their back (delayed data, we can't see that right now!) this should turn down near term. Maybe ~42 then ~40 'test' with the small specs getting shaken down would be good, they are the weak hands here.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



professor_frink said:


> Personally I think the Silver story is just as much about rampant speculation these days as USD weakness
> 
> :run:




Not totally, this is a 'pressure release' that involves the winding back of some of the big proprietary trading desks. Silver is redressing a balance that has been out of kilter for a long time. It will go to far up, for sure, then on the correction the new floor should emerge. Franks timing sounds to me to be about right, by my estimation we have hit the final phases of this move, I anticipate a top in the next month or two, the risk is certainly rising rapidly here.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

At I Wrights this morning.  They can no longer supply half kilo or above in silver bars.  Any silver at all is very scarce.  I was able to fill my needs today in coin.


----------



## Logique

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> At I Wrights this morning.  They can no longer supply half kilo or above in silver bars.  Any silver at all is very scarce.  I was able to fill my needs today in coin.



A challenge to Z and the others, who probably have an eye on the chart under, as do I for that matter, but I trade what I see, and I see a clear uptrend in silver.

Q: Which milestone for silver USD/oz will come first - $50 or $30?

http://www.fgmr.com/nothing-scary-about-these-charts.html  (Last Gold:Silver - 36.05)


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

So what about US$6,000 per ounce in a few years ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_AvvvNOzNU&feature=fvwrel 

I cant get my head round it but its looking hot all the same to this little ole black duck.


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> At I Wrights this morning.  They can no longer supply half kilo or above in silver bars.  Any silver at all is very scarce.  I was able to fill my needs today in coin.



Lol, I get this image of you having a big treasure cave, filled with piles of silver bars and pieces of eight.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> Lol, I get this image of you having a big treasure cave, filled with piles of silver bars and pieces of eight.




Nah, just a few shillings now and again.  I purchased my portfolio percentage allocation a few years ago now for my super fund which is well vaulted away for my wheel chair days if I make it.

You see, my wife has this love of Crown casino pokie machines, she loves the rings they make sometimes (fewtimes).  So I toddle off up the street and buy my coins with my share of the days allocation.

My motive is to ramp silver so that most ASF ers, can do very well and my own silver brings a good price too.  Sort of like a community service to-x6.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



Logique said:


> Q: Which milestone for silver USD/oz will come first - $50 or $30?




We very much look like we are going to shoot for $50, but will we make it? My projections are high 40's at the best but they can be easily over run in the short term. If we do a hot run at $50 the likely downside is $25 (IMO) BUT it all depends on how we get to $50 ($4x??). T/A is not prediction... I very much have to study the character of the market as we approach the high here before I will feel comfortable about calling the probability of BIG correction.  IMO this all depends on how the Fed chooses to manage the transition from QE2 to the inevitable QE3, they could make it slightly bloody in an effort to get the political mandate for QE3. Pulling liquidity for a while could have a big effect on silver and the commodities in general... which would fit the Feds goals. I favor this idea which leads to the idea of a big US summer correction in the PM's and commodities.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> So what about US$6,000 per ounce in a few years ?
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_AvvvNOzNU&feature=fvwrel
> 
> I cant get my head round it but its looking hot all the same to this little ole black duck.




Easily....  Just taking the 70's multiples gets you to $5700 and this current inflationary effort puts the 70's into the shade. Calculating the ultimate high is a little futile as it entirely depends on what the Fed and other CB's are up to and how soon/if they get religion and have their Volker moment. I once did some simple calculations using the then current growth rates and arrived at $30K quite easily.... but then what will $30K USD buy you if that becomes reality? We could see silly numbers if the Fed keeps this going... or not if Mr Volker makes a come back... so it means little. Take a look at the Zimbabwe $ gold chart, but then take a look at the Z$ value! They could lose value in real terms on gold and still be a mile ahead of holding Z$.... Will the US actually go Zimbabwe? Some say it is baked in the cake!


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> Easily....  Just taking the 70's multiples gets you to $5700 and this current inflationary effort puts the 70's into the shade. Calculating the ultimate high is a little futile as it entirely depends on what the Fed and other CB's are up to and how soon/if they get religion and have their Volker moment. I once did some simple calculations using the then current growth rates and arrived at $30K quite easily.... but then what will $30K USD buy you if that becomes reality? We could see silly numbers if the Fed keeps this going... or not if Mr Volker makes a come back... so it means little. Take a look at the Zimbabwe $ gold chart, but then take a look at the Z$ value! They could lose value in real terms on gold and still be a mile ahead of holding Z$.... Will the US actually go Zimbabwe? Some say it is baked in the cake!




LOL... I thought I was on the Gold thread! Silver 6K.... hmmmmmm


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> LOL... I thought I was on the Gold thread! Silver 6K.... hmmmmmm




Prolley just a bit of pressure Mr Z, all have those days, and among the good there will be more.

*Anyway* how are those silver shorts going.

Glad I chose long.   

And for those worried about the exchange rate, the silver price is strong and we have now gone past $40 an ounce Australian.

And who mentioned lolliepops and lattee's along the St Kilda coffee strip.  Just had my first red.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Prolley just a bit of pressure Mr Z, all have those days, and among the good there will be more.
> 
> *Anyway* how are those silver shorts going.




You are inferring that I am short silver? Where on earth did you dig up that little fantasy?   LOL

No it was just phat fingers and moving too fast. I don't concentrate to much on forums... normally busy watching price screens and this just fills in the gaps.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> You are inferring that I am short silver? Where on earth did you dig up that little fantasy?   LOL
> 
> No it was just phat fingers and moving too fast. I don't concentrate to much on forums... normally busy watching price screens and this just fills in the gaps.




In that particular aspersion I was not refering to you but do find we can bounce of each other without offence being taken.  Some names I would not include or quote.

All just fun on a Friday night.

Probably a shame we are not short tonight, and maybe the traders in Europe are tuned is as silver has crashed since my last post post.


----------



## DB008

*Re: SILVER*

Wow. Up again and closing above US$43.


----------



## DB008

*Re: SILVER*

Silver just sailed through the $44 price barrier.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



DB008 said:


> Silver just sailed through the $44 price barrier.




And today through the $45 barrier.  up to 3% a day.  

Up 260% in 12 months and some say we are headed for US$100 in the next 12 months.  I suppose that's only anoher 110%

When following a trend "it climbs a wall of worry" but then again "do not stand in front of a charging bull".

And another, "hang out the red flag and you will be bowled over" Now some of you would like to see that; he he 

Interesting times we live in.

The down side is that across the globe people have less in which to buy food, the numbers of starving grow as our polititions "play the fiddle as Rome burns"  And increasing crowd violence of those with less each day is now barely reported.

Sad times we live in and those of us profiting need to think of it.

A placard during a US election awhile back (I think for GWB's 2nd term)held up by a right wing group, cant' spell it all but simply stated "F... the poor".  Has continually haunted me since.  We are so lucky in Australia and let no one forget it.


----------



## Logique

*Re: SILVER*



Logique said:


> ..Q: Which milestone for silver USD/oz will come first - $50 or $30?...(Last Gold:Silver - 36.05)



12 days on,  and it's moved from 39 up to 46.60, I think the question is nearly answered. Gold:Silver is at a staggering 32.3

Even more, the AUD/USD now at 1.075, so now I suppose we strike out after the Swiss Franc at 1.128


----------



## nukz

*Re: SILVER*

Silver is going parabolic... 49.794 just before....


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



nukz said:


> Silver is going parabolic... 49.794 just before....




The corection expected could be near now.

A rise like this is orchestrated to my mind.  Have seen it many times over the years.  It will rise then when everyone is tuned in it will be smashed on the early Wall Street trading.   An attempt will be made to loosen weak hands.  Do not be surprised to see it go to US$ 46 very quickly.  I believe on a closing basis the support at US$45.50 will hold but that's only a feeling.

An attempt by the bullion banks to save themselves had to come and it could get very rough in the next day or so.


----------



## choofer

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> The corection expected could be near now.
> 
> A rise like this is orchestrated to my mind.  Have seen it many times over the years.  It will rise then when everyone is tuned in it will be smashed on the early Wall Street trading.   An attempt will be made to loosen weak hands.  Do not be surprised to see it go to US$ 46 very quickly.  I believe on a closing basis the support at US$45.50 will hold but that's only a feeling.
> 
> An attempt by the bullion banks to save themselves had to come and it could get very rough in the next day or so.




5$ swings will be the norm. So what? enjoy the ride up bro adn stop whinging.


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



choofer said:


> 5$ swings will be the norm. So what? enjoy the ride up bro adn stop whinging.



Lol, way to enter the forum, choofer. Is there such a phrase as 'choof off'? Because I am using it.


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: SILVER*



choofer said:


> 5$ swings will be the norm. So what? enjoy the ride up bro adn stop whinging.




As this is a first post i am going to allow it. But going forw2ard Choofer, please note that ASF is a place for facts and analysis. Why do you think $5 swings will be normal? What evidence/proof/suggestions can you provide to back up this statement?

I suggest you read the site rules and guidelines.

Thanks


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

And Silver is going up.  em, no surprise here.....



Uploaded by SGTbull07 on Apr 23, 2011

For daily updates, check out SGTreport.com
http://sgtreport.com/

SGTbull interviews Bob Chapman, Easter Sunday 2011 Special Release - Part 2 of 2

Music: "Unanswered Questions" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons "Attribution 3.0" http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/"
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/legalcode

The content in my videos and on the SGTbull07 channel are provided for informational purposes only. Use the information found in my videos as a starting point for conducting your own research and conduct your own due diligence (DD) BEFORE making any significant investing decisions. SGTbull07 assumes all information to be truthful and reliable; however, I cannot and do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of this information. Thank you.


----------



## jorxster

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> The corection expected could be near now.
> 
> A rise like this is orchestrated to my mind.  Have seen it many times over the years.  It will rise then when everyone is tuned in it will be smashed on the early Wall Street trading.   An attempt will be made to loosen weak hands.  Do not be surprised to see it go to US$ 46 very quickly.  I believe on a closing basis the support at US$45.50 will hold but that's only a feeling.
> 
> An attempt by the bullion banks to save themselves had to come and it could get very rough in the next day or so.




Annnnnd the award goes to explod! Silver did in fact drop 4$ overnight, and now is forming a large triangle consolidation. Now the mystery is it going to rebound or will it drop more?


----------



## electronicmaster

*Re: SILVER*

*The Silver Log (04.25.2011) Part 3 Final - Wild & Crazy Stuff *



Uploaded by endlessmountain on Apr 25, 2011

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com


----------



## TabJockey

*Re: SILVER*

$50 no resistance my ****! Bounced straight off that psycological level like a ping pong ball!


----------



## Logique

*Re: SILVER*

A bit more research, and coming around to TJ's point of view. I did have a bid in for Wed morning on an Aussie junior explorer/nearly producer, but now reset that bid lower. The trader/chartist in me screams 'be cautious'. With thanks to Kitco.com for the chart. 


> http://equitybriefcapital.wordpress.com/2011/04/18/outlook-for-oil-gold-and-silver/
> People are now flipping silver just like .com stocks were day-traded back in 1999-2000. I would also like to point out that while the metals continue to move higher, the miners are lagging. This is the kind of behavior seen near the tops in metals. I suspect that silver will retrace back to $30 or so sometime this summer. That will be the time to load the boat.





> http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews_tech_trading_20110425.html
> Paul Hare, executive vice president at the Linn Group agreed. "We saw a big spike high in July silver. If it were to close lower on the day it could be a possible key reversal. It is a fairly important close to watch today."
> Technicians say when a market hits a new high for a recent rally move, but then reverses intraday and closes in negative territory that creates a so-called bearish "key reversal" day formation on the chart. If that were to unfold at Monday's close, Hare said "it would signal an interim top" in the silver market.
> Hare's advice for traders right now? "Liquidate longs," he said.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

It was taken close to $50 on thin volume on a light trading day, then it was taken down into the Comex to achieve a big looking reversal (painting purdy charts!). 26/4 is options expiry and surprise, surprise we have decent OI at $45! Now who'd thunk we'd end up below that on the 26th? LOL! The next big OI is $40... I wouldn't think we'd get there.

We are also lining up for roll over week going into the delivery month of May so expect the tree to be shaken in order to scare the weak hands off prior to entering the May delivery window. Expect a rally in the first week or so... two???... of May. From there it is becoming a little bit of a lottery, some say higher in June but I am not so sure at this juncture ---> either way we are closing in on an interim top here and it could be ugly, $30 to $25 by July August is possible.


----------



## Country Lad

*Re: SILVER*

Relationship of the gold price as a multiple of silver has become a bit interesting.  Monthly chart.

The relationship is irrelevant if silver is now considered an industrial commodity instead of a precious metal.

Cheers
CL


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

Money or commodity, silver is both and more balanced in that regard than most other PMs. Right now investment demand is driving silver so its monetary component is in the drivers seat. That looks like to could last until June, then it will likely behave like every other commodity as Ben fudges around with QE2.5 Later in this bull market it will likely be solely driven by investment demand... at this stage I think it alternates between the two, most of the time industrial demand is king but then we have these periods of excitement when the 'investors' get a head of steam up. FWIW... traditionally this never ends well. 

PS> I don't really think that the ratio means a whole heap to most of us these days, unless you are a gold silver ratio trader that never holds dollars! There are plenty of them around in bugland.


----------



## burglar

*Re: SILVER*



Agentm said:


>





Hi Agentm,

The video is really scary!
Before i emulate the "sheep" character, could anyone please tell me:

Is it factual, and is it balanced?
Is it true and verifiable?
Does the producer have an agenda?


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



burglar said:


> Is it factual, and is it balanced?




No, the manipulation crowd credit those that push this market around with more power than they have and as a consequence they overestimate the upside. They also refuse to accept that the industry has many legitimate uses for the futures market and that the Comex is in fact the smaller part of the metals trading world. It is an over blown, extreme and US centric view BUT that does not mean that there is not some truth at the heart of the allegations.



burglar said:


> Is it true and verifiable?




IMO it is distorted but none of it is 100% verifiable at our level of access to information.  



burglar said:


> Does the producer have an agenda?




*YES*.... this is silver, even the agendas have agendas!

The truth lays between this view and the official view however I doubt you are ever going to see a Comex default or a prosecution over manipulation. Even with all the data it would be quite hard to make a sound legal case.

Regardless we have enough proof in the price action since the likes of JPM have started winding down their prop trading desks. There was definitely an unsustainable presence controlled by the likes of these guys in this market. That said at some point the buying runs out, guessing where is the trick, silver is a small market and even a medium size player can become a self fulfilling prophecy. Anyway, when it runs dry the  reaction will likely be big. Contrary to what the video would have you believe this is more about the futures market than the physical market, when it ends the gap between the two could be quite large. Watch that step... we are getting into the danger zone IMO. I think this ends between May and June, if you want silver wait till  July to August, the lows could be $25-$30 if history is a guide... but then I bet the very next post will tell you that this time it is different!

Warning Will Robinson *WARNING!*


----------



## burglar

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> ... but then I bet the very next post will tell you that this time it is different!



Hi Mr Z,
and thanks for your reply,
it will help me sleep at night.

"this time it is different"
Ha Ha!

I'm not in silver ... so not really qualified to post my opinion.
But watching these videos scares me enough to wonder if the next GFC will be triggered by something as irrational as a continued run on silver.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



burglar said:


> But watching these videos scares me enough to wonder if the next GFC will be triggered by something as irrational as a continued run on silver.




Some would have it that way but I would contend that the like of JPM have whatever they are losing in closing out their silver position fully hedged. After all they of all people fully understand what is driving this market and where it ends so not only would they be hedged they have the opportunity to make money when it ends. I very much doubt that when the situation is netted out they will come up losers... Internet legend has it that they are big losers ---> believe that at your own peril IMO.


----------



## konkon

*Re: SILVER*



burglar said:


> Hi Agentm,
> 
> The video is really scary!
> Before i emulate the "sheep" character, could anyone please tell me:
> 
> Is it factual, and is it balanced?
> Is it true and verifiable?
> Does the producer have an agenda?




"Is it factual, and is it balanced?" Well, it's kind of crude, but there is a lot of truth in what is said. Fair and balanced like Fox News?! I think it's pretty clear that there is an oversupply of debt and fiat currencies at the moment and this doesn't seem to be slowing down. You can't print or just create silver or gold and they have always had some value attached to them. They can never go to zero either. 

"Is it true and verifiable?" Most of it can be seen with your own two eyes. The enormity of the collective debts can't, because we don't normally deal with this perception and many don't see perpetual and uncontrollable debts as a real problem. Imagine if institutions and government had to top-up on buying protection like silver and gold in the future. What would happen to the price of gold and silver then?

"Does the producer have an agenda?" Nearly everyone has an agenda. An agenda can come in many forms (more than the two listed here); one being spin or sales reps selling something that you or others (the world) doesn't really need. Another type of agenda might be spin and sales reps selling something that the world (now) really needs. And that is silver and other precious metals that are mostly currencies now, and not just industrial metals.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*

Lots of discussion over the interwebs about silver being in a bubble. I attach both linear and log scale monthly charts so the curious can make up their own mind. Usually this can be a good tool to notice simple patterning.

To me the thing that stands out most is that when looking on the silver monthly log chart, a test of 20 (or at least 30) at some point looks probable, but there is no indication of reversal on the monthly unless we tank really hard before May opens.

Linear scale



Log scale



I recommend clicking on these clean charts and examining in depth if you haven't already.


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



sinner said:


> To me the thing that stands out most is that when looking on the silver monthly log chart, a test of 20 (or at least 30) at some point looks probable, but there is no indication of reversal on the monthly unless we tank really hard before May opens.



Yes, it is interesting to note that your gold log chart was flat, but this silver one still has a curved upward trend. For the gold graph it fits well with a price driven by inflation, but the silver graph cannot be explained by inflation alone - indicating a speculative force on the price.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> Yes, it is interesting to note that your gold log chart was flat, but this silver one still has a curved upward trend. For the gold graph it fits well with a price driven by inflation, but the silver graph cannot be explained by inflation alone - indicating a speculative force on the price.




Just FYI, speculative force is an inference you are willing to make, not me.

Bolivian silver mine strikes have helped.

Here is another rather interesting chart, the spread between a single share in JPM and a single troy ounce of fine silver.


----------



## Glen48

*Re: SILVER*

Owning Silver and Gold is like storing water / supplies when you live in a bush fire zone and a fire is comming, you stock  for security, this time the fire is the USD, world debt, Banks, inflation etc .
Once the fire threat has passed it is safe to go back to you normal life style at this stage the fire is getting bigger, stronger and still comming.


----------



## enigmatic

*Re: SILVER*

I have a feeling this Silver bull has some time to run, I just hope you all start getting out once JP Morgan have found something else to buy to make a profit.

I can only see one reason it will maintain the highs and that will be if the US dollar was replaced for Silver.

with the increased prices you will see more silver mines popping up which would provide excess supply for a commodity which has no real increase in demand.

Interesting times a head I would still remain Bullish on Silver offcourse until the USD turns which will be at the next crash... 

DYOR this is all my own opinion and should not be taken as advice


----------



## skcots

*Re: SILVER*

Huge move in silver. Can anyone point me to a chart that shows volume?
Things are getting interesting indeed.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



skcots said:


> Huge move in silver. Can anyone point me to a chart that shows volume?
> Things are getting interesting indeed.




Expected shakeout.  Volume only about 25% of normal at this time though its moving up the last half hour and of course so is the price.  Most traders still asleep.

Hope the following link helps.

http://www.cx-portal.com/metal/silver_en.html


----------



## skcots

*Re: SILVER*

Thanks for the link.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



skcots said:


> Huge move in silver. Can anyone point me to a chart that shows volume?
> Things are getting interesting indeed.




explod has provided the Dukascopy feed, which is *tick* volume on the spot market *not contract voume*, just for clarification since he doesn't seem to be willing to point that out.

Futures contract volume on the two frontish months:





I made out alright in this mornings carnage, no complaints here.

I am pretty sure a move like that counts as one of the biggest most volatile moves in any commodity, ever.


----------



## Frank D

*Re: SILVER*

*Silver *

My view on Gold and Silver (Weekly report)

http://goldcoppersilver.blogspot.com/2011/04/gold-silver-report-30th-april-2011.html

Silver coming down into Support levels....

if the trend is going to continue higher, then it needs to stabilize around support 
levels for the next 3-4weeks, and then push upwards from the last week in MAY
 or early June.

There is a possibility that the USD dollar has found support and may rise or
 consolidate over the next 4 weeks, which will help keep Silver and Gold prices in
 a trading range


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



sinner said:


> explod has provided the Dukascopy feed, which is *tick* volume on the spot market *not contract voume*, just for clarification since he doesn't seem to be willing to point that out.
> 
> Futures contract volume on the two frontish months:
> 
> View attachment 42693
> View attachment 42694
> 
> 
> I made out alright in this mornings carnage, no complaints here.
> 
> I am pretty sure a move like that counts as one of the biggest most volatile moves in any commodity, ever.




Sinner, not sure what I do wrong for you all the time.  I posted the link up very quickly to try and help out and then went straight out the door for another test at the hospital re my health.  Though I do leave the puter on and stay logged in, you may think I am still present.  Just got back.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Sinner, not sure what I do wrong for you all the time.  I posted the link up very quickly to try and help out and then went straight out the door for another test at the hospital re my health.  Though I do leave the puter on and stay logged in, you may think I am still present.  Just got back.




Dude I am not having a go at you just pointing out the reality since you didn't want to, someone asked for volume and you gave them a chart of the only portion of the silver market that doesn't have volume! 

The volume bars displayed in the Dukascopy charts you show, are tick volume, the sum of all ticks in that bar *not* the number of contracts changing hand.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



sinner said:


> Dude I am not having a go at you just pointing out the reality since you didn't want to, someone asked for volume and you gave them a chart of the only portion of the silver market that doesn't have volume!
> 
> The volume bars displayed in the Dukascopy charts you show, are tick volume, the sum of all ticks in that bar *not* the number of contracts changing hand.




The tick volume indicates activity on the spot market.  Realise now that I did not answer the question asked however *I did not get it wrong on purpose as you aver dude.*


----------



## moXJO

*Re: SILVER*

tin hats on

Would a leaked report of OsamaBL death have affected the silver market this morning?


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



moXJO said:


> tin hats on
> 
> Would a leaked report of OsamaBL death have affected the silver market this morning?




Doubt it. The "leaked" report was from a French agency saying Osama had died from typhoid a year ago or something.

This was more to do with news about the Bolivian mines IMHO.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Due to some public holidays and a number of key markets not trading the low volume created a lot of volatility. Was on Skynews earlier today.

Should be all back to normal tomorrow and the current steady price rise would indicate we are on the way.

A good shake out and an opportunity to buy.   The reverse candle forming will make the technical aspect look okay too.   The support base formed today matched last Tuesday and Wednesday's lows of around US$43 and ought to restore some confidence going forward in my view.

This silver bull run remains intact and the steadying move was needed to retain strength.


----------



## TabJockey

*Re: SILVER*

Silver looks technically toxic to my eyes. I reckon no new clear bull trend for a few months.

But time will tell.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



TabJockey said:


> Silver looks technically toxic to my eyes. I reckon no new clear bull trend for a few months.




Depends on the chart you are looking at I guess.

On the monthly chart itself, todays move is nothing and we closed last month at 30 year highs.

Take a look at the NASDAQ monthly during the dotcom bubble. See the difference?

Let's say 50% of last months range, ~43.4 is the line in the sand for now


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

It is getting desperate out there, the following from Dan Norcini this morning.



> For the third time in a week, the exchange has hiked margin requirements for trading silver futures contracts.
> 
> New margin requirement rises to $16,200 from $14,513. Maintenance margin moves up to $12,000 from $10,750.
> 
> Hedgers pay the maintenance margin as their initial margin requirements.
> 
> It looks as if the exchange is extremely worried after seeing a nearly $10 plunge in silver prices overnight. It will make it more and more difficult for small specs to participate and as I have said previously here, will tend to magnify downward moves in price as margin calls escalate rapidly.
> 
> Small specs - be extremely careful in this market right now. There is an attempt going on here to rid the general public of its positions leaving only the big boys to play.
> 
> That will also aggravate the volatility even more and open interest drops off and liquidity begins to shrink.




at  http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

But of course long term holding of silver is the way IMHO


----------



## skyQuake

*Re: SILVER*

Anyone looking at silver?

a false break of the double bottom @ 35.58 should be a buying opp imo


----------



## wayneL

*Re: SILVER*

So who bought silver @ ~$50?


----------



## Frank D

*Re: SILVER*

Yesterday's Silver UPDATE 5TH May

http://goldcoppersilver.blogspot.com/


I would look for MAY low support , and then a swing back up to retest
 this week's breakout... (next Week)

And then double bottom in to June for the next 'long set-up' on Silver


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Dan Norcini has done his block this morning and accuses the Fed of collusion, interesting read and a great opportunity to top up on physical IMHO.  When the bottom is confirmed that is.

Go down the page to the second article at:-

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

But its a big fall, $15 in a week.


----------



## Aussiejeff

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Dan Norcini has done his block this morning and accuses the Fed of collusion, interesting read and a great opportunity to top up on physical IMHO.  When the bottom is confirmed that is.
> 
> Go down the page to the second article at:-
> 
> http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
> 
> But its a big fall, $15 in a week.




Snipped from your 3 May post -



> It looks as if the exchange is extremely worried after seeing a nearly $10 plunge in silver prices overnight. It will make it more and more difficult for small specs to participate and as I have said previously here, will tend to magnify downward moves in price as margin calls escalate rapidly.
> 
> *Small specs - be extremely careful in this market right now. There is an attempt going on here to rid the general public of its positions leaving only the big boys to play.*




Given silver's further massive plunge overnight, wouldn't this advice be even more prudent?

aj


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*

Is anyone really surprised though?

This is precisely what happens when an asset sees a huge rise in price purely due to speculation. With commodities the price the asset _should_ be at is governed by supply and demand. In the case of silver, my understanding is that on the supply side - the cost of mining silver is about $15/ounce. At $50/ounce, miners would ramp up production like no tomorrow. On the demand side - are consumers (consumers, not hoarders) really drawing silver from the market at such a rate as to force silver to $50? I don't think so.


----------



## DB008

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> Is anyone really surprised though?



Me, surprised at the drop, no way. 
Have a look at a 6 month or 1 year chart. It couldn't sustain that momentum...

Bloomberg Silver AU ETFS Chart



tothemax6 said:


> This is precisely what happens when an asset sees a huge rise in price purely due to *speculation*. With commodities the price the asset _should_ be at is governed by *supply and demand*. In the case of silver, my understanding is that on the supply side - the cost of mining silver is about $15/ounce. At $50/ounce, miners would ramp up production like no tomorrow. On the demand side - are consumers (consumers, not hoarders) really drawing silver from the market at such a rate as to force silver to $50? I don't think so.




http://www.bullionbaron.com/2011/02/perth-mint-vs-royal-canadian-mint.html


----------



## DB008

*Re: SILVER*

Found this interesting article on the web. Could be BS, so take it with a pinch of salt....

There is also a video if you follow the link.



> Wealthwire - Silver
> 
> Silver's Surprising Gains and Gold's Optimistic Outlook
> 
> By Brittany Stepniak
> 
> Yes, there's cetainly been a shift in the commodity price trends as of late, especially regarding precious metals (i.e. the drastic silver dip).  However, gold went up for a third consecutive session in New York and silver is inching its way into a rebound after last week's biggest price drop since 1975.
> 
> What gives?  Experts believe that Europe's debt crisis, accompanied by the decreasing value of the euro, is responsible for sparking this demand for the hard metal assets: both gold AND silver.
> 
> Yesterday, Greece was downgraded -for the fourth time since last April-  by Standard and Poor.
> 
> According to Bloomberg:
> 
> "Economic uncertainties in the monetary union and fears over peripheral debt were returning to the focus yet again,” Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, said in a report to clients. “In the short run, bullion is likely to remain well supported, also helped by physical activity picking up in Asia amid seasonal demand.”
> 
> Greece's credit rating is now at a BB-, but speculators say they will not be surprised by further reductions in the near future.  If that happens, Greece will officially be the lowest-rated S&P country in all of Europe.
> 
> The euro will likely continue to fall to a lower value than most other currencies as gold steadily increases more than any other currency or commodity.
> 
> Analysts at ScotiaMoccatta suspect gold will remain in demand by a variety of investors primarily because of the complications affecting the global economy.  Budget deficits, heightened politcal unrest around the world, inflation, and unstable currencies are all factors contributing to those analysts' predictions.
> 
> Take a look at this video of Michael Yoshikami, chief investment strategist at YCMNet Advisors, commenting on the U.S. economy with investment advice:
> 
> 
> 
> According to Hal Lehr, managing director for cross-commodity trading with Deutsche Bank, gold could potentially rise all the way up to $2,000.
> 
> Silver futures for July delivery went up to $38.475, up $1.359 (3.7 percent) on the Comex today.  This came as a surprise to many after silver had slumped a total of 34% since April 25.  This qualifies as a bear market to a majority of investors because it represents a decline of more than 20 percent.
> 
> Some investors are now critisizing previous assertions that the gold and silver markets were bubbles that have already burst, commenting that they were "misinformed" and the analyses too "simplistic".


----------



## DB008

*Re: SILVER*

Found this one. Make of it what you will.....

KWN - King World News - Silver speculation 




> *Robin Griffiths - Silver Could Eclipse $450, Gold $12,000*
> 
> With gold over $1,500 and silver around the $35 level, today King World News interviewed one of the top strategists in the world, Robin Griffiths of Cazenove. Cazenove is one of the oldest financial firms on the planet and is widely believed to be the appointed stockbroker to Her Majesty The Queen.  When asked if this time around silver will eclipse the 38 fold up-move which took place in the 70’s Griffiths replied, “Yes, I think getting to $50 was a slam dunk certainty, you test the old all-time high.  We now have a consolidation for let’s call it two months and I think then we are going to go on up because the paper monies are still being printed.”
> 
> Griffiths continues:
> 
> 
> “I’ve got it (silver) as a ten bagger from current levels.  You don’t want to be wobbled out here because of a few champagne bubbles.  You want to be able to stay with and add to your long-term holdings.  Bulls (bull markets) are very successful at wobbling people out at the wrong time.”
> 
> 
> When asked if his $350 target was a realistic price level for silver Griffiths stated, “That is absolutely not unrealistic.  If you adjust the old all-time high for inflation...that gives you $450 for silver.  Then you add in the fact that they are printing money, you can take it higher than that without any difficulty at all.”
> 
> 
> When asked about gold specifically Griffiths remarked, “The run-up to the peak in markets like gold is between now and 2015.  I think it will all be over by 2015, a lot of it depends on how aggressively paper monies get printed from here on in.  I think $3,000 is an absolute minimum target.  I can believe in targets certainly above $5,000 and it’s theoretically possible to go to $12,000, that’s dollars an ounce for gold.
> 
> 
> If Mr. Bernanke stays on his current agenda I think those higher numbers will be what you will see.  We’re looking at the trashing of the dollar.  As Marx pointed out, it’s the most assured way of destroying your economy.
> 
> 
> There’s a book called ‘The Road to Serfdom’ by Hayek, pointing out that when a country is in debt, getting deeper into debt as Lord Keynes said, ‘Doesn’t work.’  All it does it make the problem worse and it takes longer to solve.
> 
> 
> We’re moving away from the dollar being the main reserve currency on the planet...We’re going to move into an era where world trade is done in mixes of renmenbi, rupees and baskets, and the baskets of currencies will need to be eighted by something can’t be printed like gold.”


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*

I will have to pay more attention to this Robin Griffiths. Some men offer good guidance on what one should think. Other men, like him, offer guidance as what one should NOT think.

How on earth can anyone forecast asset prices, not in terms of direction, but absolute price in 3 years? Ego much? And what use is 'silver is a ten bagger from current levels' - _when_ is it going to be a ten bagger? 1 year, 10 years, 50 years?
Then he throws in something about everyone using rupees and yuan as currency, WTF. The USD remained a primary currency because it was the last currency tied to gold. The yuan and rupee have had nothing to do with gold for much longer than the dollar. And both China and India have huge inflation problems themselves which make US inflation look great - they are hardly examples of stable currencies.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> I will have to pay more attention to this Robin Griffiths. Some men offer good guidance on what one should think. Other men, like him, offer guidance as what one should NOT think.
> 
> How on earth can anyone forecast asset prices, not in terms of direction, but absolute price in 3 years? Ego much? And what use is 'silver is a ten bagger from current levels' - _when_ is it going to be a ten bagger? 1 year, 10 years, 50 years?
> Then he throws in something about everyone using rupees and yuan as currency, WTF. The USD remained a primary currency because it was the last currency tied to gold. The yuan and rupee have had nothing to do with gold for much longer than the dollar. And both China and India have huge inflation problems themselves which make US inflation look great - they are hardly examples of stable currencies.




No one can and that is one of the main points I have tried over the years to make.  One merely follows what seems to be happening.   It seems to me with money printing now almost out of control that its value (and we are seeing it with the US$) is dropping.  Where that will all really end know one knows and is of course why tothmax you throw your arms in the air.  We live in very uncertain times.

The purpose of having a percentage of ones overall portfolio in physical silver or gold is to hedge against these uncertainties in an endevour to preserve ones overall equity base.

Fairly down to earth stuff it you think about it.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> The USD remained a primary currency because it was the last currency tied to gold. The yuan and rupee have had nothing to do with gold for much longer than the dollar. And both China and India have huge inflation problems themselves which make US inflation look great - they are hardly examples of stable currencies.




You really need to go look again and harder! WRONG! Think about what really determines reserve status.

Also... why is it, do you think, that China has an inflation problem?


----------



## DB008

*Re: SILVER*

Tothemax, you also not looking as to what happened recently on the COMEX with MARGIN requirements to silver futures contracts.

This, IMO, had a lot to do with the pullback, but l'm sure you'll disagree....



> COMEX Increases Silver Margin Requirements for Third Time in Past Week
> 
> On Tuesday, May 3rd, the COMEX raised margin requirements for trading silver futures contracts. *This was the third increase in the past week.*
> The new margin requirement per contract was increased from* $14,513 to $16,200* for initial margin and from *$10,750 to $12,000* for maintenance margin. Hedgers in silver futures pay maintenance margin as initial margin while traders are required to post the higher initial margin amounts.


----------



## DB008

*Re: SILVER*

This guy is a total douchebag/wanker. His explanation on Silver and Margin requirements....

Margin requirements explained!


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



DB008 said:


> Tothemax, you also not looking as to what happened recently on the COMEX with MARGIN requirements to silver futures contracts.
> 
> This, IMO, had a lot to do with the pullback, but l'm sure you'll disagree....




They in fact increased the margins a total of five times over the fortnight, the current now from memory only is about US$22

All about squeezing the small players out of the game.  These blokes are making Maddock look like a saint.

However the physical buyers are winning the battle and currently the difference between what you can buy physical at, around US$40 and the paper price, around US$35 will continue to blow out and this paper system will soon collapse from my rough reading of it al.

Interesting times.


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> No one can and that is one of the main points I have tried over the years to make.  One merely follows what seems to be happening.   It seems to me with money printing now almost out of control that its value (and we are seeing it with the US$) is dropping.  Where that will all really end know one knows and is of course why tothmax you throw your arms in the air.  We live in very uncertain times.



I agree with you, but unfortunately its not that simple. We live in Australia - we don't print money here. If I lived in the UK or the US, I wouldn't have any cash savings - it would all be metal. If Australia one day starts printing, my savings account will be closed. If I feel more comfortable with the prices of gold and silver, given the economic climate (eyes on China), I will probably be more bullish. At the moment I cannot guess the direction like I could 6 months ago.


Mr Z said:


> You really need to go look again and harder! WRONG! Think about what really determines reserve status.
> Also... why is it, do you think, that China has an inflation problem?



The currency peg is not the only thing that is causing inflation. Up until recently, when they got scared by the inflation, the policy of the party was that banks should 'go forth and lend'. Credit expansion is as much a cause of inflation as increases in the monetary base.
Really 'reserve' status is bullsh-t. Reserves used to mean one thing and one thing only - gold. The origin of foreign nations holding USD in their central banks was that following the Breton Woods agreement, the US promised to redeem (for foreign central banks) 35 'dollars' for an ounce of gold. The dollar was 'as good as gold', and foreign central banks held USD reserves, and pegged their currencies to the USD. Following 1971, the US defaulted on its obligation, but the foreign central banks still had their piles of USD. So here we are.


DB008 said:


> This guy is a total douchebag/wanker. His explanation on Silver and Margin requirements....



Ugh, how did you find this guy?


DB008 said:


> Tothemax, you also not looking as to what happened recently on the COMEX with MARGIN requirements to silver futures contracts.
> This, IMO, had a lot to do with the pullback, but l'm sure you'll disagree....



If an increase in margin requirements can push the value of something from $50 to $33 in a very short time, then there was something wrong to begin with. After all, if there is all this inflation causing money and credit floating around - surely the silver speculators could meet their deposit requirements?


----------



## DB008

*Re: SILVER*

MUST WATCH: The SILVER Perspective



My my, how a few months makes a difference.

I'm still long on Silver. I was up 60% a few weeks ago, now just 17%, LOL.


----------



## damien275x

I have about 1000oz now. I've put a year of savings into it. I'm 21 now, so even if this baby crashes I don't have much to lose. It seems like a smarter call to make than going and getting a loan on an overvalued home at the moment. My reasons for holding a position - I like the fundamentals. I like the long-term trend. At present it looks like everything is in place for prices to continue to rise. The upside is huge, and I can live with the downside, although as Silver has industrial uses also I can't see it ever being worth $0. (You can't say that about paper currency) The potential upside to me is a lot greater than the downside.

One thing you need to be able to do is tune out noise. Seems like there are a lot of idiots in suits on the TV yapping away - these people have been wrong about everything for decades, I don't know why people would listen to them? I have hunted down plenty of Youtube channels, Internet radio stations, and blogs and I subscribe to  them for real news and economic forecasts. These are people who have a very good, solid proven track record in predicting future trends in the market.   

I don't even batter an eyelid with the wild fluctuations, I've been down $4000 and then up $8000 within weeks!! It's a wild ride, but I don't plan to spend this wealth for another 5-7 years so why bother stressing?


----------



## TabJockey

*Re: SILVER*



damien275x said:


> I have about 1000oz now. I've put a year of savings into it. I'm 21 now, so even if this baby crashes I don't have much to lose. It seems like a smarter call to make than going and getting a loan on an overvalued home at the moment. My reasons for holding a position - I like the fundamentals. I like the long-term trend. At present it looks like everything is in place for prices to continue to rise. The upside is huge, and I can live with the downside, although as Silver has industrial uses also I can't see it ever being worth $0. (You can't say that about paper currency) The potential upside to me is a lot greater than the downside.
> 
> One thing you need to be able to do is tune out noise. Seems like there are a lot of idiots in suits on the TV yapping away - these people have been wrong about everything for decades, I don't know why people would listen to them? I have hunted down plenty of Youtube channels, Internet radio stations, and blogs and I subscribe to  them for real news and economic forecasts. These are people who have a very good, solid proven track record in predicting future trends in the market.
> 
> I don't even batter an eyelid with the wild fluctuations, I've been down $4000 and then up $8000 within weeks!! It's a wild ride, but I don't plan to spend this wealth for another 5-7 years so why bother stressing?




I reckon your mental to put all of your money into a speculative market. In 20 years you will look back and laugh (hopefully not cry) at how ****ing naive you where when you where 21 to go and stack all your money into a single volatile precious metal. Its not going to 0 but you would be surprised just how abundant silver is.

The best thing to do is stop listening to "idiots in suits" on any medium, and do in depth research yourself.

If you get into supply and demand for silver over the long term, current stock piles, current reserves and resources and capital invested in silver mining it paints a real picture that you can evaluate yourself.

Often people talk about future technologies that will drive silver demand. Actually run the numbers, how much silver does product x require? and how many units would be manufactured in a year?

If you want to gamble just goto the casino ffs.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Tabjockey, your post above is a lot of bollocks.  Since 2001 silver has been in a strong uptrend that is very much intact.   Paper money, inprticular the US$ has been in a down trend, (still intact) for the same period.  And do not talk Aussie to me, silver is in the same uptrend against that too.

I will seek out the links later in the day, but there is in fact less silver than gold and that is why there is so much whoo har, it is an unbelievably good investment and will continue to be a wonderful hedge againts the debasement of currencies and underlying inflation.   Of course whilst the JPmorgans et. al. are fully set themselves it will be rubbished in the pres to put people off.   There is less than .05% of investing people people in the know on this market.

Perth mint for example are at pains to try and make out they have plenty but orders now have stretched out to months to be filled, and someone representing them will pop up soon to say otherwise I expect.  The paper price against the physical online sales prices are out of whack by up to 25%, just check ebay 1 kilo bars.

Sure it is not a good idea to have all eggs in one basket.   I hold bars of different sizes, silver coins, silver stocks  and some cash (for opportunities).  My Grandson who is the same age as the subject under discussion has been accumulating silver coins since the silver price was $8 and he just loves counting the profits as they grow, turning into a right scrooge, has some Dutch in him which helps too of course.   He brought some more a few weeks ago when silver hit its peak but he is not worried as he knows the full story now.

cheers explod


----------



## TabJockey

*Re: SILVER*

Explod, I know you are very anti fiat, pro physical, so I will clarify my previous post:


I contend that:

> Silver is a volatile, speculative market. Silver has been in an up trend for a long time, yes, but its volatility has been high in recent months, years and decades.

> Its crazy to put all your eggs in one basket. Even if you consider it money you can afford to lose, putting it all in one trade is more akin to gambling than investing.

> Its a good idea to know the fundamentals of what you are investing in. The best traders and investors do their own work, understand their own positions and back their own research. Documentaries on you tube are not a solid ground for any large investment.

Although you can tell by my tone that my own personal research has led me to question the sustainability of high silver prices into the future, I am not putting this forward as an opinion to Damien to follow, I am suggesting that his risk management and fundamental research needs work.

(This does not constitute financial advice, merely my opinion on investment research and risk management).

Also to clarify my comment on the abundance of Silver, I speak from a geological point of view.

Stocks of gold above ground are greater than silver stocks, there are many reasons for this most of which stem from the fact that Gold is worth so much more than silver.

But geologically, silver is found as a by product with so many base metals. Silver deposits are often easier to mine than gold. The average silver cash cost to mine is currently less than $5 an ounce, and there is allot of it out there in the earth's crust. 

This is the point of view I have formed from my own research. Geological abundance does not have a short, or even medium term correlation to market prices.


----------



## damien275x

*Re: SILVER*



TabJockey said:


> I reckon your mental to put all of your money into a speculative market. In 20 years you will look back and laugh (hopefully not cry) at how ****ing naive you where when you where 21 to go and stack all your money into a single volatile precious metal. Its not going to 0 but you would be surprised just how abundant silver is.
> 
> The best thing to do is stop listening to "idiots in suits" on any medium, and do in depth research yourself.
> 
> If you get into supply and demand for silver over the long term, current stock piles, current reserves and resources and capital invested in silver mining it paints a real picture that you can evaluate yourself.
> 
> Often people talk about future technologies that will drive silver demand. Actually run the numbers, how much silver does product x require? and how many units would be manufactured in a year?
> 
> If you want to gamble just goto the casino ffs.




I do my own reading and research and come to my own conclusions. Fact that most people think it's a bad idea is probably a good thing. The herd is usually wrong. The 25k original investment is worth about $40k but I don't care - I dont want that money now. I want it in 2015. Even if it hits $0 by then, I'll have saved up and be doing just fine. 25k is nothing, all it buys is 1 car or 1 brick of a home.


----------



## Bullion Money

*Re: SILVER*



damien275x said:


> I do my own reading and research and come to my own conclusions. Fact that most people think it's a bad idea is probably a good thing. The herd is usually wrong. The 25k original investment is worth about $40k but I don't care - I dont want that money now. I want it in 2015. Even if it hits $0 by then, I'll have saved up and be doing just fine. 25k is nothing, all it buys is 1 car or 1 brick of a home.




Nice stack you got there. Obviously im very pro PMs but its always good to diversify a little.

At least even in PMs, Some silver some gold some cash to buy in massive dips.
PMs is in a Bull market and in my view its a pretty sound investment to risk ratio over the longer term.

Obviously a biased view though...


----------



## Bron Suchecki

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Perth mint for example are at pains to try and make out they have plenty but orders now have stretched out to months to be filled, and someone representing them will pop up soon to say otherwise I expect.  The paper price against the physical online sales prices are out of whack by up to 25%, just check ebay 1 kilo bars.




Here I am, popping up.  Just this week we shipped in 20 tonnes (643,015oz) of 1000oz silver bars (with more coming). We are selling that physical at the "paper" price. It is laughable to think that the prices on ebay represent the "real" price, or that the volume of oz sold on ebay have any effect on worldwide silver prices.

Yes, we are in the middle of production improvements which has curtailed our ability to melt those 1000oz bars into retail sizes, but that is not a good indicator to rely on as to the real supply/demand balance.


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



TabJockey said:


> I reckon your mental to put all of your money into a speculative market. In 20 years you will look back and laugh (hopefully not cry) at how ****ing naive you where when you where 21 to go and stack all your money into a single volatile precious metal. Its not going to 0 but you would be surprised just how abundant silver is.
> The best thing to do is stop listening to "idiots in suits" on any medium, and do in depth research yourself.
> If you get into supply and demand for silver over the long term, current stock piles, current reserves and resources and capital invested in silver mining it paints a real picture that you can evaluate yourself.
> Often people talk about future technologies that will drive silver demand. Actually run the numbers, how much silver does product x require? and how many units would be manufactured in a year?
> If you want to gamble just goto the casino ffs.



Amen, thanks for that post. Exactly my sentiments.


explod said:


> Tabjockey, your post above is a lot of bollocks.  Since 2001 silver has been in a strong uptrend that is very much intact.   Paper money, inprticular the US$ has been in a down trend, (still intact) for the same period.  And do not talk Aussie to me, silver is in the same uptrend against that too.



Gauge it against everything else. If its just paper money going down, everything would be going up by similar amounts. However its not, silver went up by much more. 


explod said:


> I will seek out the links later in the day, but there is in fact less silver than gold and that is why there is so much whoo har



Yes but the issue is the cost of extraction. The actual silver percentage content of the earth is not really economically relevant. The last mining cost figure I saw was $15/ounce of silver. Inflation will increase the cost, sure, in time. 


explod said:


> Sure it is not a good idea to have all eggs in one basket.   I hold bars of different sizes, silver coins, silver stocks  and some cash (for opportunities).



Lol, come on, that's one basket 
There are plenty of other assets that would go up for the same reasons silver would go up.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Bron Suchecki said:


> Here I am, popping up.  Just this week we shipped in 20 tonnes (643,015oz) of 1000oz silver bars (with more coming). We are selling that physical at the "paper" price. It is laughable to think that the prices on ebay represent the "real" price, or that the volume of oz sold on ebay have any effect on worldwide silver prices.
> 
> Yes, we are in the middle of production improvements which has curtailed our ability to melt those 1000oz bars into retail sizes, but that is not a good indicator to rely on as to the real supply/demand balance.




I am not convinced.   Ebay is not the only place, I regularly make personal visits to W. Davis and I. Wright in the Melbourne CBD.   Silver *is growing *harder to acquire.

http://www.beaconequity.com/silver-...-stocks-to-consider-2011-06-02/#ixzz1OAqtlraQ

This does confirm your input Bron Suchecki but on reading through it only confirms that there are questions pointing strongly to the rising demand.

http://www.bullionbaron.com/2011/02/perth-mint-vs-royal-canadian-mint.html 

Google also reveals huge a debate on many fronts and the vehemance of those trying to deny the problem only confirms that there is a problem.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> Lol, come on, that's one basket
> There are plenty of other assets that would go up for the same reasons silver would go up.




Not one basket at all.  Many investors are holding only cash at the moment as there are signs of another servere global stock market crash.

Silver is money, it is cash and I can convert it to cash within hours, stocks take four days to settlement.

And silver has been doing much better than cash or term deposits since 2001 and there are no signs that is going to change for some time yet.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

Product shortage <> silver shortage ---> get it?  The main issue is with refinery & mint capacity.

I can't count how many times we have done this silly little dance in the silver world over the last decade. Wake me up when someone defaults on a large obligation!!!


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Many investors are holding only cash at the moment as there are signs of another servere global stock market crash.
> Silver is money, it is cash and I can convert it to cash within hours, stocks take four days to settlement.



If silver were a money, people would use it as the means of exchange. Since I see no evidence that silver is being used as such, it is not a money, it is a commodity.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> If silver were a money, people would use it as the means of exchange. Since I see no evidence that silver is being used as such, it is not a money, it is a commodity.




No that is not true, you are confusing currency with money.

Gold and silver are money because of their attributes, nothing can change that, they both meet the criteria that humans need in a natural money.

PS. It is still minted as legal tender in the USA... albeit unused in that roll.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham's_law


----------



## cynic

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> No that is not true, you are confusing currency with money.
> 
> Gold and silver are money because of their attributes, nothing can change that, they both meet the criteria that humans need in a natural money.
> 
> PS. It is still minted as legal tender in the USA... albeit unused in that roll.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham's_law




There seems to be some confusion between current/liquid assets, commodities and currency in these posts.

Just because a precious metal can at times be minted does not automatically confer the status of "money" to all of it's occurences in nature, mining, refining etc.

However, a precious metal may be considered to be a "current" or "liquid" asset as it can normally be readily exchanged for legal currency.

A minted silver or gold coin is considered as money because it is assigned a specific value for the purposes of legal tender. A gold or silver nugget is not. The gold or silver coin can be readily deposited into one's bank account (at face value) without any intervening transactions. The gold or silver nugget cannot, it must be exchanged/traded for money first. The value of the precious metal content of the minted coin will (almost invariably) be different from the legal tender value, so one must exercise discernment before deciding whether to visit the bank or the local bullion company.

Surely one can easily recognise the difference? The minted coin is considered to be money and the nugget is still a commodity.

Since the abolition of the gold standard, certain precious metals might prove to be worthwhile investments or hedges against inflation, particularly given that there are now several major economies recklessly printing money with insufficient regard to the need for asset backing. Of course one will have to DYOR (I'm beginning to like these four letter acronyms!) before deciding how best to invest one's money.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Silver and gold have been money for 5000 years.  For convenience paper backed by gold became the norm till the Britton Woods agreement.   And of course the intrinsic value of money (paper) has been diluted ever since and is why we find we have problems today.  

Following is a good definition of where we were at in the understanding of silver as money but is dated.   I contend we will have to return to this definition when paper currencies do collapse.  Utah in the USA have just legislated to include silver into thier currency so the shift is on.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/morgan071001.html


In history the major monetary metal is silver, see

http://www.moneychoices.com.au/blog/the-rise-of-silver-infographic.php


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

Cynic,

Governments determine what currency is, human nature determines what money is... again you have money and currency mixed up. Gold is the best natural money that man has found, silver is quite probably the second best. Silver is not in a bull market today because of its value as a commodity, it is in a bull market due to its value as money.

BTW, it can be easily proven that gold is not a good inflation hedge just by looking at historical data. Natural monies are a crisis hedge, they gain value when people lose faith in governments ability to reliably maintain the financial system. They are the only money in the world today that do not represent someone else's liability. This is why people are turning to them.

If you think of gold and silver as commodities you will get this market wrong. I have had people telling me since 2000 odd that gold and silver simply have not got the supply demand funnies to do well. The people telling me that completely over looked their roll as money. Since then gold has compounded at 20%+ PA in USD mainly due to the growing concern over the USA's ability to keep the system together.

Central banks hold gold because in the end it is the only easily held money that they can guarantee will be trusted. Silver is poor mans gold, money that is no ones debt.... whatever its form, over time, it will retain value unlike our ever diminishing FIAT currencies.


----------



## Logique

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Not one basket at all.  Many investors are holding only cash at the moment as there are signs of another servere global stock market crash...



I think silver will be ok, I'm not commenting specifically on that.

But there are plenty who are more optimistic on commodities generally: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...s-amid-improving-global-growth-prospects.html
_Funds Boost Bullish Commodity Bets Amid Improving Global Growth Prospects_
By Yi Tian - *Jun 6, 2011*
"Funds boosted bets on rising commodity prices to the highest in four weeks, led by copper, amid signs that the global economic recovery will remain resilient and boost demand for raw materials. 

Speculators raised their net-long positions in 18 commodities by 7.3 percent to 1.26 million futures and options contracts in the week ended May 31, government data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the highest since May 3. Copper holdings more than doubled. A measure of bullish agriculture bets also climbed as adverse global weather curbed crop production. 

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index rose for a fourth straight week as Chinese metal inventories plunged and droughts lingered in the Asian country and Europe, trimming prospects for wheat and cotton crops. The global recovery “is gaining strength,” the Group of Eight leaders said May 27 after a summit in Deauville, France. In the U.S., consumer sentiment rose to a three-month high in May, a private report showed last month...."


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Cannot really agree on your post Logique,  not saying you are wrong or that it will (though I do think so) but there are pointers to big market problems to be led by Wall Street, so on that basis alone cash (and silver as safe money) is king for me at the moment.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43236764


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Bron Suchecki said:


> Here I am, popping up.  Just this week we shipped in 20 tonnes (643,015oz) of 1000oz silver bars (with more coming). We are selling that physical at the "paper" price. It is laughable to think that the prices on ebay represent the "real" price, or that the volume of oz sold on ebay have any effect on worldwide silver prices.
> 
> Yes, we are in the middle of production improvements which has curtailed our ability to melt those 1000oz bars into retail sizes, but that is not a good indicator to rely on as to the real supply/demand balance.




The Aussie paper price today is $1,080 for 1kg and on ebay the bidding today for Perth Mint 1 kg bars are reaching $1,400.   In fact there is one that has just hit $1,650

So, you are being robbed over there in Perth ole pal


----------



## Bullion Money

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> The Aussie paper price today is $1,080 for 1kg and on ebay the bidding today for Perth Mint 1 kg bars are reaching $1,400.   In fact there is one that has just hit $1,650
> 
> So, you are being robbed over there in Perth ole pal




I think people have to ignore eBay as it simply does not represent or indicate true market price and demand.
The market on eBay is so small, almost negligiable.

People paying $1400 for a kilo bar on ebay are clueless. there is just a stigma attached to eBay that its cheaper than retail outlers and eStores, definately not the case with bullion. Also people get attached to Auctions - emotions take over..

I say this as I currently sell a Kilo Silver Perth mint coin on ebay for $1350 and also sell one on our estore for $1150..... 
Go figure?


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Bullion Money said:


> I think people have to ignore eBay as it simply does not represent or indicate true market price and demand.
> The market on eBay is so small, almost negligiable.
> 
> People paying $1400 for a kilo bar on ebay are clueless. there is just a stigma attached to eBay that its cheaper than retail outlers and eStores, definately not the case with bullion. Also people get attached to Auctions - emotions take over..
> 
> I say this as I currently sell a Kilo Silver Perth mint coin on ebay for $1350 and also sell one on our estore for $1150.....
> Go figure?




Or perhaps ignore the Perth Mint.   Some would be concerned that the Ponzi Bullion banks maybe involved in this too.

Ebay is a free market and I do not think to many paying out 1 and a half grand would be all that ignorant.

So the questions still remain IMO.  

and; silver is in a strong uptrend and as a safe haven against the current frivolaties in the market place, a good place to park cash.


----------



## cynic

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> Cynic,
> 
> Governments determine what currency is, human nature determines what money is... again you have money and currency mixed up. Gold is the best natural money that man has found, silver is quite probably the second best. Silver is not in a bull market today because of its value as a commodity, it is in a bull market due to its value as money.




*money* _(mun'i)_, *n*. [Fr., from *L*. moneta, a mint], paper or metal stamped to show its value

(Source : The AWARD COMPACT DICTIONARY, ISBN 0-86163-109-9)

It would appear that my pocket dictionary is at variance to your liberal definition of money. 



Mr Z said:


> If you think of gold and silver as commodities you will get this market wrong. I have had people telling me since 2000 odd that gold and silver simply have not got the supply demand funnies to do well. The people telling me that completely over looked their *roll* as money.




Increased demand for commodities can easily arise from (amongst other things) the perception of commodities as a good vehicle for the storage of wealth. However, by definition it does not become "money" until it is minted.

BTW I believe that you meant to say "role" (not "roll"). Perhaps a new dictionary might be in order here.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



cynic said:


> BTW I believe that you meant to say "role" (not "roll"). Perhaps a new dictionary might be in order here.




Dictionaries come and go and are updated on what reflects *common* usage.  Not homophobic or gay myself but the word "gay" is a good case in point.

It is anything that can be used in exchange for goods and in the past gold and silver played that function and will again in my view.  So the dictionaries will then reflect that.   The following is one of the best explanations I have encountered:-

http://www.the-privateer.com/gold-b.html


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



cynic said:


> *money* _(mun'i)_, *n*. [Fr., from *L*. moneta, a mint], paper or metal stamped to show its value
> 
> (Source : The AWARD COMPACT DICTIONARY, ISBN 0-86163-109-9)
> 
> It would appear that my pocket dictionary is at variance to your liberal definition of money.
> 
> 
> 
> Increased demand for commodities can easily arise from (amongst other things) the perception of commodities as a good vehicle for the storage of wealth. However, by definition it does not become "money" until it is minted.
> 
> BTW I believe that you meant to say "role" (not "roll"). Perhaps a new dictionary might be in order here.




LOL... yeah dickshunary me! That will help! They are wrong... it is that simple.  : Money is whatever any group of humans decide is a store of value and a medium of exchange... *REGARDLESS* of what any government condones or accepts. They determine the currency of a regime *WE* determine if it is an acceptable money. This is why people in the US are increasingly opting for precious metals... you need to learn that lesson or else the reason for this precious metal bull market will allude you to the end!

I just tripped over this in following leads on a another discussion...



> Australia
> 
> In Australia, the creation of legal tender, in the form of notes and base metal coins, is the exclusive right of the Commonwealth Government. *According to the Australian Constitution, s 115[3] which states: "A State shall not coin money, nor make anything but gold and silver coin a legal tender in payment of debts."* Under this provision the Perth Mint, owned by the Western Australian Government, still produces gold and silver coins with legal tender status, the Australian Gold Nugget and Australian Silver Kookaburra. These, however, although having the status of legal tender, are almost never circulated or used in payment of debts, and are mostly considered bullion coins.
> 
> Australian notes are legal tender, as established by the Reserve Bank Act 1959[4] for all amounts. Australian coins for general circulation, now produced at the Royal Australian Mint in Canberra, are also legal tender, under the provisions of the Currency Act 1965,[5] but only for the following amounts:
> not exceeding 20 ¢ if 1 ¢ and/or 2 ¢ coins are offered;
> not exceeding $5 if any of 5 ¢, 10 ¢, 20 ¢ and 50 ¢ coins are offered;
> not exceeding 10 times the face value if coins in the range 50 ¢ to $10 inclusive are offered;
> to any value if face value is greater than $10 are offered.
> 
> The one cent and two cent coins have been withdrawn from circulation since February 1992, but they remain legal tender.
> 
> According to the Reserve Bank of Australia,[6] the legal framework[7] for legal tender in Australia is somewhat unclear. The Reserve Bank Act 1959[4] and Currency Act 1965[5] establish that it is not legally required to accept legal tender, even for an existing debt, although failure to do so may be prejudicial in future legal proceedings.
> 
> In Australia, except for when sending items via Registered Post, Australia Post prohibits the sending of coins or banknotes, for any country, in the post.




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_tender

So gold and silver are not money unless mommy stamps it? Give me a break! Real money is defined by human nature, not government. The world is in the process of relearning this. I repeat gold and silver are money that is no one else's debt, in times of systemic mistrust they will always come to the fore. We are in times of systemic mistrust as is evidenced by a 10 year bull market in both these metals which both have a technical oversupply if you only look at their use as a commodity.

You may not think that they are money... but they are! 

These are the types of arguments we where having on gold sites 10 years ago! It is kinda quaint really :


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

P.S.

Dickshunary's also tend to define inflation as an increase in prices as opposed to the original and more correct definition which is an increase in the money supply... of which, at certain points, rising prices may be a symptom.

It is called dumbing down, the loss of subtle but powerful nuances in the way a term is defined. Suffice to say the current and more popular use of the term inflation completely obfuscates the original meaning of the term and conveniently hides the abuses that government indulge in when it come to the management of our currency. The less people understand the better as far as government are concerned!


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> No that is not true, you are confusing currency with money.
> Gold and silver are money because of their attributes, nothing can change that, they both meet the criteria that humans need in a natural money.
> PS. It is still minted as legal tender in the USA... albeit unused in that roll.



You are confusing a commodity with money. If something is money it is: The medium of exchange, the unit of account, and a store of value. No one uses "Oz XAG" as their unit of account, and no one uses silver as a medium of exchange, hence it is not money. Today money is stupid bits of plastic and paper backed by nothing. 


Mr Z said:


> Governments determine what currency is, human nature determines what money is... again you have money and currency mixed up. Gold is the best natural money that man has found, silver is quite probably the second best. Silver is not in a bull market today because of its value as a commodity, it is in a bull market due to its value as money.



Have you seen anybody using gold or silver to make payments in public recently? Even once in 20 years? No one uses it as money.


explod said:


> Silver and gold have been money for 5000 years.  For convenience paper backed by gold became the norm till the Britton Woods agreement.   And of course the intrinsic value of money (paper) has been diluted ever since and is why we find we have problems today.



Yes, paper money is useless, but that doesn't mean silver and gold are money. People only use paper $AUD tax-credits legal tender whatever as money, and silver and gold are currently commodities. I look forward to the day when we implement gold-standard free banking, and the RBA gets demolished and replaced by an inter-bank clearing house. Until then, the shiny stuff is still just metal.


cynic said:


> There seems to be some confusion between current/liquid assets, commodities and currency in these posts.
> Just because a precious metal can at times be minted does not automatically confer the status of "money" to all of it's occurences in nature, mining, refining etc.
> However, a precious metal may be considered to be a "current" or "liquid" asset as it can normally be readily exchanged for legal currency.



Exactly.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> You are confusing a commodity with money. If something is money it is: The medium of exchange, the unit of account, and a store of value. No one uses "Oz XAG" as their unit of account, and no one uses silver as a medium of exchange, hence it is not money.




You are conflating money and currency. The store of value doesn't need to be the medium of exchange.



> Today money is stupid bits of plastic and paper backed by nothing.




No, that's currency.



> Have you seen anybody using gold or silver to make payments in public recently? Even once in 20 years? No one uses it as money.




For someone who is wrong, you are awful sure of yourself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVArPiDebdY&feature=player_embedded#at=49
People paying for food, fuel, medical services with gold and silver in Michigan.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576130192457252596.html
JP Morgan takes gold as collateral
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3LdNxV0yPM
Panning gold to buy bread in Zimbabwe



> Yes, paper money is useless, but that doesn't mean silver and gold are money. People only use paper $AUD tax-credits legal tender whatever as money, and silver and gold are currently commodities. I look forward to the day when we implement gold-standard free banking, and the RBA gets demolished and replaced by an inter-bank clearing house. Until then, the shiny stuff is still just metal.




Ignorant and wrong. If it is just a metal, then why is gold held on the balance sheets of almost every Central Bank in the world?

Answer? It isn't your incorrect definition of money. It is because gold is a *reserve asset*. Reserve asset as in, store of value.


----------



## cynic

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> Money is whatever any group of humans decide is a store of value and a medium of exchange... *REGARDLESS* of what any government condones or accepts. They determine the currency of a regime *WE* determine if it is an acceptable money.




 Did you really mean to say this?

The last time I checked our Government was composed of a number of groups of humans (political parties and independent representatives). So what you are stating is, in effect, tantamount to a statement that groups of humans have no regard to their own determinations regarding money!




Mr Z said:


> This is why people in the US are increasingly opting for precious metals... you need to learn that lesson or else the reason for this precious metal bull market will *allude* you to the end!




Did you actually comprehend anything that I wrote in my previous two posts? I definitely *alluded* to the dilution of currency being a potential driver of PM demand. So no! The various reasons for the recent "Bull Market" haven't *eluded* me and anyone whom believes otherwise is somewhat deluded in their thinking.



Mr Z said:


> So gold and silver are not money unless mommy stamps it? Give me a break! Real money is defined by human nature, not government. The world is in the process of relearning this. I repeat gold and silver are money that is no one else's debt, in times of systemic mistrust they will always come to the fore. We are in times of systemic mistrust as is evidenced by a 10 year bull market in both these metals which both have a technical oversupply if you only look at their use as a commodity.
> 
> You may not think that they are money... but they are!




Well why don't you take one of your precious silver nuggets and shove it into the hands of your local bookseller and try to persuade him/her to part with some English Dictionaries, of commensurate value, in exchange. (Take careful note of the amount of human agreement you experience whilst attempting this transaction.)




Mr Z said:


> LOL... yeah dickshunary me! That will help! They are wrong... it is that simple.  :




Do you really believe this ? Are you really that simple?




Mr Z said:


> These are the types of arguments we *where* having on gold sites 10 years ago! It is kinda quaint really :




Do yourself a favour and invest in a new dictionary (preferably one that's written in modern English)!


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

I love it.... you guys just don't get it and you probably will not till it is all but over.

Again you are generally confusing currency with money.

Challenge your preconceptions and look at human history and behavior.

Cynic I am dyslexic... not stupid, leave the spelling alone unless you want a flame war.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



cynic said:


> Did you really mean to say this?
> 
> The last time I checked our Government was composed of a number of groups of humans (political parties and independent representatives). So what you are stating is, in effect, tantamount to a statement that groups of humans have no regard to their own determinations regarding money!




In a way, a combination of human nature, pragmatic considerations and availability determine what money is. To date the best naturally occurring fit has been has been gold with silver running up a reasonable second. That is not to say that under certain circumstances other things cannot become money, more that if gold and silver are available they are preferred.



cynic said:


> Did you actually comprehend anything that I wrote in my previous two posts? I definitely *alluded* to the dilution of currency being a potential driver of PM demand. So no! The various reasons for the recent "Bull Market" haven't *eluded* me and anyone whom believes otherwise is somewhat deluded in their thinking.




Did you actually comprehend anything that I wrote in my posts?  The dilution of the currency is not the driver of PM demand in and of itself. That is a misconception generally made by people who don't really get this bull market. Gold and silver come to the fore when the risk verse reward ratio of other assets fall. People are buying gold and silver as a crisis hedge, people are buying gold and silver because because they are the only forms of money that are not someone else's obligation. This is being driven by a mistrust of the financial system and the governing entities.



cynic said:


> Well why don't you take one of your precious silver nuggets and shove it into the hands of your local bookseller and try to persuade him/her to part with some English Dictionaries, of commensurate value, in exchange. (Take careful note of the amount of human agreement you experience whilst attempting this transaction.)




Again you are confusing money and currency! Although @ $1440 AUD oz I suggest that my bookseller would be a fool not to take the gold.

Since you want to play that game... what about I give you the choice of 5K in gold or 5K in AUD. Spin the globe, stick my finger in some remote point, drop you there and challenge you to buy your way home. What universally recognized form of money do you think would be most effective in that circumstance?



cynic said:


> Do you really believe this ? Are you really that simple?




Yes, dictionaries often mess up the precise meaning of terms just enough to render the original purpose and power of the word relatively useless. Inflation is a classic example but there are many others, many professions use a more precise definition of a term because the general usage definition has been bastardized or dumbed down over time. Calling me simple over that is arrogant and unwarranted. Are you so simple you believe all that is written in a dictionary without thought or question?



cynic said:


> Do yourself a favour and invest in a new dictionary (preferably one that's written in modern English)!




I'm dyslexic enough that spelling gives me a hard time.... BTW way to play the man, all class!


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> You are confusing a commodity with money. If something is money it is: The medium of exchange, the unit of account, and a store of value. No one uses "Oz XAG" as their unit of account, and no one uses silver as a medium of exchange, hence it is not money. Today money is stupid bits of plastic and paper backed by nothing.




No... no I am not. LOL Yeah the AUD has been a great store of value hasn't it? What does that 1970 dollar buy you now? Anyway... again you are confusing money and currency! (I just like saying that!)



tothemax6 said:


> Have you seen anybody using gold or silver to make payments in public recently? Even once in 20 years? No one uses it as money.
> Yes, paper money is useless, but that doesn't mean silver and gold are money. People only use paper $AUD tax-credits legal tender whatever as money, and silver and gold are currently commodities. I look forward to the day when we implement gold-standard free banking, and the RBA gets demolished and replaced by an inter-bank clearing house. Until then, the shiny stuff is still just metal.
> Exactly.




Anyway... again you are confusing money and currency!  

We use a currency... it is not really money! Mind you they have checked off most of the boxes, all but one and that is an important one 

Gold is actually no longer suitable to back currency due to the way that our modern credit systems work. We will not be likely to ever see gold backing again on a permanent basis. It would be very deflationary and would make our credit system all but unworkable. I don't pretend that gold is the best currency that a nation can use, that in fact is a well managed FIAT. The problem lay in the way FIAT is managed, I think we are yet to see the best way to achieve that. Still, that does not take away from the fact that gold & silver are money that tend to come to the fore when the FIAT system runs into trust issues.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



sinner said:


> You are conflating money and currency. The store of value doesn't need to be the medium of exchange.
> 
> 
> 
> No, that's currency.
> 
> 
> 
> For someone who is wrong, you are awful sure of yourself.
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVArPiDebdY&feature=player_embedded#at=49
> People paying for food, fuel, medical services with gold and silver in Michigan.
> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576130192457252596.html
> JP Morgan takes gold as collateral
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3LdNxV0yPM
> Panning gold to buy bread in Zimbabwe
> 
> 
> 
> Ignorant and wrong. If it is just a metal, then why is gold held on the balance sheets of almost every Central Bank in the world?
> 
> Answer? It isn't your incorrect definition of money. It is because gold is a *reserve asset*. Reserve asset as in, store of value.




Yey Sinner! 

Central banks and Indians know what money is! I love that people who say gold is not money never seem to question why it is that the entity that makes the currency actually feels it needs a big old pile of gold!

China's CB is busy shoring up its gold stash, I think they are a little uncomfortable with the composition of their current foreign reserves. They actually need a staggering amount of gold to get to Euro norms, not to mention US standards.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> Yey Sinner!
> 
> Central banks and Indians know what money is! I love that people who say gold is not money never seem to question why it is that the entity that makes the currency actually feels it needs a big old pile of gold!




Some people (bugs and skeptics alike) have no idea but feel the urge to spout what they've heard on youtube like it is fact anyway. 

If you want to act like you know something, then a rudimentary understanding of the topic might be beneficial lest you appear to be highlighting nothing but your own ignorance, where the "google education" shines through every word and turn of phrase.

Just so we can keep it on the topic of silver, in respect to the Chinese, before the Communist revolution the currency of the land was in fact silver coinage. This was put into storage during the revolution, so all of that silver is still sitting in a vault somewhere in mainland China. IMHO this is the reason they aren't obviously accumulating silver as a reserve, they already have *plenty*.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*

and just to rub tothemax nose in it, here is a fresh photo from the silvergoldsilver blog, 



From http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/06/sandpoint-idaho-population-6835-and.html


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*

Yeah, I have seen the 25c a gallon petrol signs, also with the pre 64 silver coin caveat. In the US the general awareness of the dollars diminishing status has really risen since the GFC. They may not all understand it but more and more of the average Joes and Janes definitely know something is wrong in the center of the empire!

LOL... yes I wish you would stay on topic! It is embarrassing


----------



## Bron Suchecki

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> I am not convinced. Ebay is not the only place, I regularly make personal visits to W. Davis and I. Wright in the Melbourne CBD. Silver *is growing *harder to acquire.
> 
> This does confirm your input Bron Suchecki but on reading through it only confirms that there are questions pointing strongly to the rising demand.
> 
> Google also reveals huge a debate on many fronts and the vehemance of those trying to deny the problem only confirms that there is a problem.




My post was not saying that there isn't strong demand, we have said there is on our corporate blog. We wouldn't be consolidating coin production to a few sizes if there weren't many buyers around. It is a good indicator of a strong market, but don't rely on it.

My point is that ebay prices or (lack of) supply of retail dealers is not much of an indication of real demand. Ebay and retail are minor in volume terms compared to the real physical that goes on in the wholesale markets. And I'm talking physical, not paper. Real metal in big quantities sold at the spot price.

If you can buy 1000oz silver bars, silver is not growing harder to acquire. When that starts to happen (to us) then you will know about it because we will shut down our pool allocated silver. Then you can start talking about shortages.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Bron Suchecki said:


> My post was not saying that there isn't strong demand, we have said there is on our corporate blog. We wouldn't be consolidating coin production to a few sizes if there weren't many buyers around. It is a good indicator of a strong market, but don't rely on it.
> 
> My point is that ebay prices or (lack of) supply of retail dealers is not much of an indication of real demand. Ebay and retail are minor in volume terms compared to the real physical that goes on in the wholesale markets. And I'm talking physical, not paper. Real metal in big quantities sold at the spot price.
> 
> If you can buy 1000oz silver bars, silver is not growing harder to acquire. When that starts to happen (to us) then you will know about it because we will shut down our pool allocated silver. Then you can start talking about shortages.




I do not necessarily disagree.  In fact I do not know the real situation.  However in almost all that one reads on the many and varied mediums there is a cry of silver shortage and the shenanigans (albiet not determined in the tribunls yet), seems to indicate hugely out of proportion paper positions to any real volume of existing physical silver to them back them up.

You may puff and pant all you want but the retailers I speak to and the evidence I see on the retail side on such sites as ebay paints a vastly different story than the one indicated by the Perth Mint.

But I repeat, 

you may be correct, I do not know, but I am not convinced.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*



Bron Suchecki said:


> If you can buy 1000oz silver bars, silver is not growing harder to acquire. When that starts to happen (to us) then you will know about it because we will shut down our pool allocated silver. Then you can start talking about shortages.




Thanks for the headsup Bron. 

Assuming we completely ignore the backwardation that continues to be the norm in the COMEX silver futs market, the only problem with your "nothing to see here, move along" type statement is that many of us have already realised that by the time organisations like the Perth Mint shut down their pool allocations, *it will already be too late*.

Those who were sitting in the pool will now be looking elsewhere to fill their needs, in the middle of a self described shortage. Anyone who was in already will be sitting pretty, those who weren't will almost certainly chasing price, paying any price just to hold something real.

Good luck to them!

Maybe I'm wrong. If so, please explain to the crowd how we are expected to obtain silver or gold in an environment where the Perth Mint would be having trouble obtaining 1000oz silver or 400oz gold bars?

This seems to be the crux of your argument. There is no shortage, therefore everything is all good. I am wondering exactly what you will say to all the people you told not to buy (because they would be paying a premium higher than spot) if silver or gold goes into hiding. It's a pretty amusing thought.


----------



## Bron Suchecki

*Re: SILVER*



sinner said:


> the only problem with your "nothing to see here, move along" type statement is that many of us have already realised that by the time organisations like the Perth Mint shut down their pool allocations, *it will already be too late*.
> 
> If so, please explain to the crowd how we are expected to obtain silver or gold in an environment where the Perth Mint would be having trouble obtaining 1000oz silver or 400oz gold bars?
> 
> This seems to be the crux of your argument. There is no shortage, therefore everything is all good. I am wondering exactly what you will say to all the people you told not to buy (because they would be paying a premium higher than spot) if silver or gold goes into hiding. It's a pretty amusing thought.




I am not saying not to buy. I am saying don't base your decision on the fact that ebay prices are much higher than "spot".

What I am saying is why pay big premiums on ebay when you can lock in normal premiums and current spot price from Perth Mint and we deliver later. That is always an option. We would not allow back orders if we are unable to source the raw material.

So continue to buy, just don't be so desperate about it that you'll pay unnecessary premiums. If you buy from us on back order we will deliver, we are not some fly by night operation. The rumors going around now are same as in 2008 and guess what, everyone who ordered metal got it and the Mint is still here.

As to the situation where Perth Mint may not be able to obtain wholesale metal, if that happens it won't happen overnight. We will see signs of real tightness in the wholesale market before it locks up. When you see me talking about wholesale tightness, then you can panic. Until then keep stacking but chill out


----------



## cynic

*Re: SILVER*



sinner said:


> and just to rub tothemax nose in it, here is a fresh photo from the silvergoldsilver blog,
> 
> 
> 
> From http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/06/sandpoint-idaho-population-6835-and.html




Was it my imagination, or did I see the words "silver coin" in this post?


----------



## cynic

*Re: SILVER*

MR Z, I owe you my sincerest apologies for certain "cheap shots" I took at you in my previous posts. As many of my friends (yes - I do still have one or two of them left) will attest : "I have as much subtlety as a flying (silver) brick!"

I acknowledge my arrogance which just happens to be one of my many redeeming features (Yes I am actually somewhat proud to be arrogant!).

On the topic of precision, I will readily and humbly accept your precise definition if and when I experience it as having been embraced and widely accepted in my business dealings with the English speaking populace. 

I understand that the "dumbing down"/"smarting up"/"bastardization" of word definitions by the lexicographer might be seen as a contributor to the evolution/involution of the English language.

Until then I shall continue to subscribe to my AWARD dictionary definition as previously posted, simply because it has been largely consistent with the understanding and expectations of all parties to contracts arising from my business and financial dealings to date. To act in accordance with your "precise" definition of "natural money" may prove to be confusing and counterproductive to the "uninitiated" for whom adaptation to your more "precise" definition may not be practicable.

I know you're intelligent enough to understand the value of a dictionary of terms that supports my communication and interpretation of business terms whilst dealing with these "uninitiated" individuals.

In closing, may I wish you all the best, as I have now come to recognise the importance of your more "precise" definition of natural money in your business activities.


----------



## Logique

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> ...there are pointers to big market problems to be led by Wall Street, so on that basis alone cash (and silver as safe money) is king for me at the moment...



Indeed Explod.  A waxing moon and a waning Bernanke, plus some ordinary looking weekly charts. And June tax selling. So for me, discretion is the better part of valour. The discontinuation of US QE needs time to work through markets.  I'll hold a couple of specs, but basically out, awaiting some firm direction.


----------



## Bullion Money

*Re: SILVER*

Had to show this video off..

Australian Company with a new Silver Bar to rival the Perth Mint and PAMP...


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



sinner said:


> and just to rub tothemax nose in it, here is a fresh photo from the silvergoldsilver blog,



Hah, nice one, sinner .

I concede that, _at that diner_, silver is used as money (although probably rarely).


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> No... no I am not. LOL Yeah the AUD has been a great store of value hasn't it? What does that 1970 dollar buy you now?



Not too worried, I get paid with 2011 dollars.







Mr Z said:


> We use a currency... it is not really money! Mind you they have checked off most of the boxes, all but one and that is an important one



OK given that currency seems to just mean 'the medium of exchange', whereas money means 'medium of exchange; unit of account; store of value', your claim is that fiat money is not a store of value relative to gold. However, since fiat money bears interest (and gold cannot), I would have said this is incorrect. Also, since gold is not used as currency, it is thus logically also not money, at least as far as the word 'money' is defined in the English language. We _are _using the English language, yes?







Mr Z said:


> Gold is actually no longer suitable to back currency due to the way that our modern credit systems work. We will not be likely to ever see gold backing again on a permanent basis. It would be very deflationary and would make our credit system all but unworkable. I don't pretend that gold is the best currency that a nation can use, that in fact is a well managed FIAT. The problem lay in the way FIAT is managed, I think we are yet to see the best way to achieve that. Still, that does not take away from the fact that gold & silver are money that tend to come to the fore when the FIAT system runs into trust issues.



I am going to have to disagree with you on this too (albeit on the 'other side', if you will). Our banking system is not fundamentally different (ignoring the nature of the monetary base) to banking back when we a gold standard. Credit has always been extended to a multiple of the monetary base. Indeed, during the Scottish free-banking era, the reserve ratios of banks was typically around 2-3%. A gold standard remains the best form of monetary base a nation can use, the only difficulty is the momentousness of trying to return to such a standard without causing an unacceptably massive 'jolt'. Fiat is a _terrible_ system. Central planning of anything is terrible, but central planning of the money supply is by far the worst and most market-distorting form of 'management' there is.


----------



## TabJockey

*Re: SILVER*

Max:

What evidence do you have to support your claim that Fiat is a terrible system and a centrally planned system of money supply is the "worst there is". Certainly the era of fiat currency has coexisted with the fastest advancement and most productivity of society ever?


----------



## damien275x

*Re: SILVER*



TabJockey said:


> Max:
> 
> Certainly the era of fiat currency has coexisted with the fastest advancement and most productivity of society ever?




Yes - and that prosperity is being borrowed out of the future. The future will be the present eventually, then what? Keep kicking the can down the road? Bailout again? It almost came down in 2008 if it weren't for all these bailouts. What will they do to solve the next slowdown?


----------



## TabJockey

*Re: SILVER*

What does that have to do with the fiat argument?

Are you saying that governments should not be allowed to borrow money? or that if they borrow it should be secured by gold?

Personally I think it makes allot more sense to borrow against the future earnings of the country than to borrow against a single arbitrary commodity with limited practical use. There is a real problem there with the short term democratic focus spending the month earned by future generations, but this is a governmental scientific problem. Fiat is not to blame and a change away from fiat will not fix it.


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



TabJockey said:


> Max:
> What evidence do you have to support your claim that Fiat is a terrible system and a centrally planned system of money supply is the "worst there is". Certainly the era of fiat currency has coexisted with the fastest advancement and most productivity of society ever?



It is difficult in economics to point to evidence of a singular cause and a singular effect that are directly linked. This is because in economics (which is effectively a term we use to refer to 'interactions between men in aggregate'), everything is dependent on everything else. One could point to the 1907 crash and say 'this was caused by a gold standard and no central bank', the 1929 depression and say 'this was caused by a gold standard and a central bank', or point to any economic malais after 1971 and say 'this was caused by fiat money'.
It is far superior to use logical deduction, that is - starting with basic principles that can be determined with high certainty to be true, and build up from there. The use of logical induction on singular factors in a system with such a high level of complexity and such a large number of factors, i.e 'seeking to build rules on evidence such as statistics', is clearly less likely to yield a satisfactory working model.

But if I must address your points directly, centrally planned _anything_ is terrible because of a) the nature of central planners and the kind of people that gravitate towards this role, b) the fact that central planning is effectively reducing the number of market agents which can act based on information, without reducing the number of agents or amount of information to be processed (therefore leading to massive resource misallocations such as seen in the USSR and Maoist China).
Also, regarding the era in which all this occurred, I see your information age and raise you an industrial revolution.


----------



## TabJockey

*Re: SILVER*

Errrr, what are you trying to say? I am not seeing your point.
What benefits will there be if we go back to a gold standard?

There is a big difference between Maoist central planning and the central planning China uses today, looking at the way things are planning out its not a bad system, it could be the best system for China. And I don't think any credible person would try to argue that the financial system of today based on fiat money and central banks is centrally planned in a Maoist fashion. Wouldn't you say it more resembles a restricted free market? where rates are slowly tinkered with to guide the economy in a specific direction but not to specific place?

The boom bust cycle stability of the monetary system under fiat has vastly outperformed the monetary system of a gold standard. Booms and busts, runs on banks and depressions where so common in the industrial age, but those where just growing pains. Society had to learn the hard way before it could accept the technological advance of fiat money.

I would like it if you could use that "logical deduction/induction" that you mish mash together and tell me what do you think the gold standard can improve in the financial system? Why do you think almost all of the participants in the financial system would not even consider a gold standard?

Do you think its a conspiracy?


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*

A 'restricted free market' is an oxymoron. It is either free, or there are restrictions. You can't be 90% pregnant. 
Regarding China, no the change is merely a slide along the socialism-capitalism scale. Mao was a full-bore communist, Deng was half way on the scale (famous for making the very un-communist phrase "to get rich is glorious"). If one is to follow the correlation mantra, if it keeps sliding that way then the economy will keep improving even more. In the mean time, their construction bubble has yet to burst (youtube 'china empty cities').

Regarding the boom-bust cycle, no the central bank is just as effective as creating booms as a free-market, if not better (such as the 1920s expansion leading to the 1929 crash). Fiat has 'vastly outperformed' nothing of the sort. The Scottish free banking era, the purist example of free banking (no central bank, minimal government interference in the banking system, gold standard), was not known for boom and bust cycles at all. The only notable incident was the collapse of the Ayr bank, which overextended its credit, and blew up. No financial crisis ensued, and the rest of the banks were relatively unscathed. 

It is precisely the tinkering with the interest rate that causes broad economic malais. Price controls have always shown up as shortages, gluts, over and underinvestment in whatever product was under the control. Since the interest rate effects the _entire_ economy, one would expect its control to have similar injurious effects _over the entire economy_. And it does. In 2003, the US interest rate had been depressed to 1% by Greenspan and held there. Does a -2% real rate sound like a free-market interest rate? Would you pay someone to borrow your money? Is it any surprise that a massive housing bubble occurred, given that houses are heavily financed by credit and dependent on the interest rate? What would have happened under free banking? The demand for credit would have raised the rate, acting as a natural dampener on demand for further houses. 

The benefit of the gold standard is that the monetary base is outside the control of government. It cannot be centrally planned, tweaked, twisted, inflated, contracted, or whatever, and no government created distortions of the market can ensue. The government cannot finance its debts by printing money, and inflation is not an issue.

Your claim of the _technological _superiority of fiat money is bizarre. Most of the worlds gold is still sat in banks, as it was under the gold standard, so there is no technological difference. If we still used gold as money, there would still be electronic transfers, banknotes, cheques, credit cards etc etc. 

Why do financiers not like the gold standard? Well why would they? Wiki 'greenspan put'. You can't do that under a gold standard.


----------



## lrodgers

*Re: SILVER*

Ratio is running 5:1 nowadays.


----------



## silverhoarders

*Buy Physical Silver! Robert Kiyosaki Warning Economic Collapse Is Coming*

Robert Kiyosaki Warning Economic Collapse Is Coming 
http://www.silverhoarders.com/conte...-Kiyosaki-Warning-Economic-Collapse-Is-Coming


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*

Any updates on silver? I am always interested to hear the latest developments in the mad metal.


----------



## adamim1

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> Any updates on silver? I am always interested to hear the latest developments in the mad metal.




Silver is still holding strong after the debt deal announcement. Price has dipped in USD due to USD strengthening, but the losses were sucked up by a weaker AUD.

Not sure how August is going to play out but silver is always much stronger in the last quarter of the year. 

All the fundamentals of precious metals are still in tact.


----------



## adamim1

*Re: SILVER*



> *The Price of Gold on December 30, 2011*
> By Jeff Clark
> 
> It's a pretty bold statement to predict what the price of gold will be on a certain date. Naturally, I don't think I can really tell the future, but here's what I can do: measure gold's seasonal behavior since the bull market started in 2001 and apply those trends to this year's price.
> 
> Many gold investors know that the price tends to be soft in the summer and then rise in the fall. While gold has powered to record highs this summer, I can demonstrate that in spite of this atypical pattern, $1,800 gold sometime this autumn is a very reasonable target.
> 
> Here's how: The following table records the summer low in the gold price in every year since 2001. I then list the peak that occurred later that fall, as well as the year-end price. Check out the percentage gains.




Article continues: http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/predicting-year-end-price-gold


----------



## Billyb

*Re: SILVER*

adamim - informative post - thanks for writing


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



Billyb said:


> adamim - informative post - thanks for writing




Agree, good to see some new ASF'ers with fresh input too.


----------



## LifeChoices

*Re: SILVER*

C'mon Silver, hurry up - gold is leaving you for dead


----------



## notting

*Re: SILVER*



LifeChoices said:


> C'mon Silver, hurry up - gold is leaving you for dead




I think your supposed to say "Hi Ho"


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

On the daily silver chart it is doing just fine.  Has been tied to commodities such as copper and oil for awhile but steadily sneaking away from that.

A steady sure trend is the friend.  Silver will soon have its day as part of the alternate to paper money.


----------



## sinner

*Re: SILVER*

Silver priced in AUD.

Here we go now... lines in the sand as indicated, it is a pretty nice and tight consolidation. Good to spot it now before it breaks out.


----------



## LifeChoices

*Re: SILVER*

Looks like it's going to be pushing 50 again sometime soon.


----------



## iced earth

*Re: SILVER*

*Silver - 19 August 2011*
================================
Silver is braking the neck line of the  Head& Shoulders pattern, if monday silver closes high with a good volume, target could be  around $50.00 .


----------



## LifeChoices

*Re: SILVER*

Thanks for that Iced Earth. 

It's not looking like they are going to plan. Silver ain't following your fancy graph with all them lines going through it at different points. Silver ain't behaving.

Why is it when gold goes up, silver is tied to commodities, but when gold goes down, silver is tied to gold - I'm confused, but still loyal... for a while, well maybe not.

I think it's time for some more triangles - can you go draw us another scenario please?


----------



## davede

*Re: SILVER*

Had a golden cross in silver prices over the last week with 50 day and 100 day MAs crossing. 

US$50 is looking very likely.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



LifeChoices said:


> Thanks for that Iced Earth.
> 
> It's not looking like they are going to plan. Silver ain't following your fancy graph with all them lines going through it at different points. Silver ain't behaving.
> 
> Why is it when gold goes up, silver is tied to commodities, but when gold goes down, silver is tied to gold - I'm confused, but still loyal... for a while, well maybe not.
> 
> I think it's time for some more triangles - can you go draw us another scenario please?




Just the way it goes, look at tonights chart, same as yours on the 5th.

http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts/24hoursspot.html

Few traders around at the start of the week.  Lets see Wednesday night onwards.


----------



## LifeChoices

*Re: SILVER*



explod said:


> Just the way it goes, look at tonights chart, same as yours on the 5th.
> 
> http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts/24hoursspot.html
> 
> Few traders around at the start of the week.  Lets see Wednesday night onwards.




That's cause it is the same. Those images from the kitco site are dynamic.


----------



## adamim1

*Re: SILVER*

There's still massive commercial short positions in silver. Mostly held by 4 big commercials. They're what's holding silver back at the moment, when these shorts start to decrease we'll see silver take off. I believe the next break on 44 and we will see an impulsive move up to $50.


----------



## DB008

*Re: SILVER*



adamim1 said:


> There's still massive commercial short positions in silver. Mostly held by 4 big commercials. They're what's holding silver back at the moment, when these shorts start to decrease we'll see silver take off. I believe the next break on 44 and we will see an impulsive move up to $50.





Which 4 big commercials are holding the shorts afamim1?


----------



## adamim1

*Re: SILVER*

Check it out here.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/home
Theres 8 bullion banks that have huge short positions in silver. Ted Butler follows short positions as you can determine good times to buy when the shorts are low.

ATM shorts have been increased in gold and silver.


----------



## adamim1

*Re: SILVER*

I'm no great chartist however, but it looks like there is a triangle forming in silver on the daily chart.


----------



## adamim1

*Re: SILVER*

Strong words from Ted Butler. 
"Don’t look for, or expect, legitimate supply/demand explanations for any silver sell-off. I can’t say that there will never be a legitimate supply/demand explanation in the future, but I can tell you I have never found one yet in 30 years of close observation. The price has gone up in the broad sweep because of the force of supply and demand, but has only declined on crooked games in the paper markets. I realize that’s an extreme view, but it is one on which I am convinced to my core. I further believe that if you come to accept this as a core belief as well, you will be doing yourself a favor. What it means is that you should come to expect, simultaneously, that silver has done and will do as well as it has in the past because of the real fundamentals, but that the crooks running the paper game will engineer sell-offs at will to shake (leveraged) paper silver holders out of their positions. If you think you can out smart them by short-term trading, you have my best wishes for success, but little in the way of my expectations. Faced with the reality of the opposing forces, my solution is holding on a fully paid for basis (with an occasional options fling). If anyone has a better approach, I’m all ears."

"The most salient feature to the silver paper trading mechanism is that the short side of the derivatives equation is extremely concentrated, while the long side exhibits very little indication of concentration. In other words, the silver longs are diverse and unrelated to one another. This is the hallmark of a free market.. The short position is dominated by large financial institutions, led by JPMorgan, that are few in number but hold very large positions; the very definition of concentration. This is as far from a free market as it gets. Further, the shorts appear to act collusively, generally buying and selling in unison. Even the exchange mechanism, run by the CME Group, is closely related in mutual interests to the large shorts who dominate. Criminal enterprise is a measured description of this arrangement."

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/home


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



adamim1 said:


> I'm no great chartist however, but it looks like there is a triangle forming in silver on the daily chart.




You are correct and the high to low formed about 18 days ago with lower highs and higher lows since.  It has about a week or two to play out on the up or down side.  However the higher lows go back to the 27th of June which indicates to me that a breakout will be more likely on the upside.

However for a better picture I usually refer to the weekly chart and you will see clearly that the higher lows are the order of the day indicating to me a solid uptrend.

http://freeserv.dukascopy.com/chart...b381043d066574841a356d7dfa79c7879646d32707572


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



adamim1 said:


> "The most salient feature to the silver paper trading mechanism is that the short side of the derivatives equation is extremely concentrated, while the long side exhibits very little indication of concentration. In other words, the silver longs are diverse and unrelated to one another. This is the hallmark of a free market.. The short position is dominated by large financial institutions, led by JPMorgan, that are few in number but hold very large positions; the very definition of concentration. This is as far from a free market as it gets. Further, the shorts appear to act collusively, generally buying and selling in unison. Even the exchange mechanism, run by the CME Group, is closely related in mutual interests to the large shorts who dominate. Criminal enterprise is a measured description of this arrangement."



Yeah Ted sounds like a loon. Free market means 'voluntary trading', i.e. no force involved. If JPMorgan wants to loose billions of dollars by holding large short positions on a precious metal in a likely inflationary environment, that's their prerogative, and in a free market they are free to do that. To claim 'criminal enterprise is a measured description' is like referring to an 'orange is a deadly weapon' as a measured description.


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> Yeah Ted sounds like a loon. Free market means 'voluntary trading', i.e. no force involved. If JPMorgan wants to loose billions of dollars by holding large short positions on a precious metal in a likely inflationary environment, that's their prerogative, and in a free market they are free to do that. To claim 'criminal enterprise is a measured description' is like referring to an 'orange is a deadly weapon' as a measured description.




No actually it is not their prerogative, commodity law recognizes that futures offer the ability to manipulate a market and sets in place limits to trading depending on the type of participant and the market. Bulter's claim is that A. the limits in silver are inappropriately large and B. that they are exceeded. Futures are not a free market in the traditional sense, it is not all about supply and demand when it comes to derivative markets and inappropriate speculative activity can distort price. That is not a problem in a well balanced market but if you get massive concentration of contracts in one controlling entity (or a small number of them) it can produce a very unfair and unfree market.

You really need to get an education, Butler is actually a very experienced commodity trader. You may not agree with him but he is not a loon and has been on the money since $3.xx silver.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*

Agree, have been following his daily free newsletter for 6 years now and he knows his trade very well and explains things in easy terms for clear understanding.  Has a good mix of humour too  

http://www.dailypfennig.com/


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: SILVER*



Mr Z said:


> No actually it is not their prerogative, commodity law recognizes that futures offer the ability to manipulate a market and sets in place limits to trading depending on the type of participant and the market. Bulter's claim is that A. the limits in silver are inappropriately large and B. that they are exceeded. Futures are not a free market in the traditional sense, it is not all about supply and demand when it comes to derivative markets and inappropriate speculative activity can distort price. That is not a problem in a well balanced market but if you get massive concentration of contracts in one controlling entity (or a small number of them) it can produce a very unfair and unfree market.
> 
> You really need to get an education, Butler is actually a very experienced commodity trader. You may not agree with him but he is not a loon and has been on the money since $3.xx silver.



Sir, it is you who must educate yourself. Here is a start:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_market

If there are commodity laws which 'sets in place limits to trading depending on the type of participant', then there is not a free market. There is government intervention, regulation, and state control.
What the fluff is "inappropriate speculative activity"? By what logical perversion would it be a 'free market' if large buyers and sellers could have their trading declared 'inappropriate', and then barred and limited in their trades? Of course large sales and large buys push prices down and up - that's how a market works!

Free market means just what it says - *all *are free to participate in the market in whatever manner they choose, and no-one's trading is controlled by force or threat of force.


----------



## explod

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> Free market means just what it says - *all *are free to participate in the market in whatever manner they choose, and no-one's trading is controlled by force or threat of force.




It is not a free market when it is obvious that the big players are taking big positions prior to the announcement of events and news.   And such information is created to do just that.  The instrument of Moodies within the circle of Wall Street is just one of the many tools to used rob ordinary traders and investors.

When Fannie Mai and Fredie Mack were going under, large postions short were made by the big side of town before the general community were aware that there was was even trouble.  And there are now many examples since.

It *has* reached the point of fraud and criminality and you tothemax, as suggested, need remove your rose coloured glasses and look deeper into what is really going on in the financial world.


----------



## Joe Blow

Good evening all "SILVER" thread participants. 

As many of you have probably noticed, I have decided to rename this thread to clarify its subject matter and purpose.

When this thread was originally started around six and a half years ago, there were not many threads on the topic of silver here at ASF and a thread title such as "SILVER" would not be so unusual. These days, things are a little different and the decision to rename the thread was so it could be more easily found, not just via the ASF search function, but by those using Google.

So, it's the same old thread, it just has a new title now.

Please carry on!


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## disarray

Joe Blow said:


> These days, things are a little different and the decision to rename the thread was so it could be more easily found, not just via the ASF search function, but by those using Google




claiming this as a bullish sign


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## Mr Z

*Re: SILVER*



tothemax6 said:


> Sir, it is you who must educate yourself. Here is a start:
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_market
> 
> If there are commodity laws which 'sets in place limits to trading depending on the type of participant', then there is not a free market. There is government intervention, regulation, and state control.
> What the fluff is "inappropriate speculative activity"? By what logical perversion would it be a 'free market' if large buyers and sellers could have their trading declared 'inappropriate', and then barred and limited in their trades? Of course large sales and large buys push prices down and up - that's how a market works!
> 
> Free market means just what it says - *all *are free to participate in the market in whatever manner they choose, and no-one's trading is controlled by force or threat of force.




Mate... LOL, go learn about commodity and why it limits position size. If it did not the player with the largest bank account would almost always win. We are talking about a market in a derivate product not a market in a commodity. You don't have to have any skin in the game to play in futures, in a traditional spot market you either have to produce or want the commodity in question in a futures market you need no such capacity or intent. Futures markets limit players position size for very good reasons, if they didn't the market would not function as designed and would cease to service the need it was designed to fill. We are not talking about a market in the traditional sense, derivatives are different and need differing considerations because of the potential leverage they can offer those with the money over those with the production of or need for the commodity.

Please don't try and bash me over the head with simplistic free market ideology, artificial financial constructs such as futures really do need differing considerations based on the nature of the contract. They are not a natural market, supply and demand can be endless if you have deep enough pockets. There is little about these instruments that conform to the natural laws of supply and demand that drive free markets. In small markets like silver and gold this can become a major issue. In larger markets such as oil it is less of a problem but it can still create market dislocation that has little to do with the real state of supply and demand.

In a proper free market you have little or no leverage and you need to own it or want it. The laws of supply and demand play out in an unfettered fashion. Competition, efficiency, innovation etc all the positives of capitalism, thrive and are encouraged under this arrangement. In a badly constructed derivative contract that has no limitations all you do is create tool for those with the financial wherewithal to dominate those that really produce and consume. The producers and the consumers are the real market.

You sir are spouting simplistic idealogical clap trap, go and learn why commodities laws is what it is. Go and learn what the dangers are and why they where recognized and regulated from very early in the piece. In the process you should come to understand why the position size and contract concentration that Butler is alleging is a bad thing for the market and impedes true price discovery.


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## Mr Z

PS --> IMO all derivatives (well almost all, those that can impact the real market on which they are based) need to be traded on regulated clearing house based exchanges that set in place clear rules, limitations and performance guarantees all based on the nature of the contract. If mortgage backed CDO's where traded in such a fashion we would not have had the debacle that the "free market" created in 2008. (it wasn't really free but for that is for other reasons).

As far as silver goes, to have a situation where a single bullion bank, dubiously classified as a commercial, as they certainly don't produce and can't really be said to consume, can sell more 'paper' silver than the worlds leading mines can produce in a year with no intent or real need to supply 1 oz of it, is untenable. Especially when the same rules prohibit a bona fide consumer of the metal from taking physical delivery of a similar amount of metal.

This is not a question of 'should there be rules', there are rules and they are correct in their structure. This is a question of the quantities prescribed by those rules and the enforcement of those rules, both these things have been rightly called in question by Mr Butler.


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## tothemax6

Post 1:
It's either a free market or it is not. It is a free market, you failed to explain how it was not. 
Regulation - government control of the actions of private citizens. You cannot have both regulation and a free market, anymore than you can have both a flood and a drought.
Contract - a firm agreement between men. A derivative is just a contract. It has been common practice since as far back as the Dojima Rice Exchange to sell commodity contracts. There is nothing wrong with this practice whatsoever, and there is nothing involved that is inconsistent with a free market. 

Post 2:
The location of the trading of the CDOs did not cause the GFC. The GFC was caused by the combination of central planning of the money supply (the Fed put interest rates in 2003 to 1%), and government intervention in the housing market (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac permitting people to buy houses with mortgages they couldn't afford). The combination of the two blew up a huge bubble in the housing market.
The situation you are referring to with the silver bullion bank is not abnormal. Indeed this is how all banks work (wikipedia: fractional reserve banking). The actual quantity of cash that banks own is a small fraction of that which it owes to depositors. 

The only rules we need is law based on individual rights.


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## Mr Z

1: What are you on about? You claimed JPM should be able to open as many futures as they want unhindered... I said NO thay cannot it is against the regulations and rightly so, then you blow off in some odd 'free market' rant without really understanding how and why futures are structured they way they are. The fact that futures need limitation is not in question, that was settled a long time ago and they have been regulated for a long time. Butlers concern is over the actual existing futures limits in relation to the size of the market.

2: Please work on your comprehension, in no way did I blame the events of 2008 on the way the instruments where traded. As you point out the cause of 2008 was in fact government *HOWEVER* the way the CDO's where traded contributed to the eventual size of the debacle and *IF* they where traded on a clearing house based exchange, with all the checks and balances that are typically put in place, and with the transparency of such a market, then you would have had a market that would have had a much better chance of curtailing the excesses rather than contributing to them. A liquid, transparent market always behaves much better that an opaque, over the counter, boutique market. BTW you never mentioned the carry trade... if you are giving out eggs to suck please do the complete job. BTW kid, thanks for the eggs to suck but I'm not I need of an education on the way this system works or how 2008 happened.... I was well ahead of that curve in real time. 



> The situation you are referring to with the silver bullion bank is not abnormal. Indeed this is how all banks work (wikipedia: fractional reserve banking). The actual quantity of cash that banks own is a small fraction of that which it owes to depositors.




Who is discussing bullion banking? Butler is about the Comex futures market *NOT* the OTC market in London which is the primary domain of the big bullion banks. That is a different kettle of fish altogether! Butler, "the loon" as you would have it, is focused on the Silver (and to a degree Gold) contracts traded on the Comex when he alleges manipulation. Bullion Banking and unallocated bullion accounts are a separate subject that the real 'loons' like Bix get uppity about. That is another story altogether and has nothing to do with Butler and his allegations. JPM can run as fine as they want on there unallocated silver accounts, LOL, in fact they have already lost one case against them where they sold 'silver' unallocated, charged storage for it AND didn't hold 1 oz of it. Yes they are free, at the moment because bullion banking is unregulated, to sell as much silver as they don't have to whom ever they can suck into opening a bullion account. However that is not the subject, silver futures is.

Butler is alleging criminality because of breeches of existing commodity law *NOT* because JPM et al are selling lots of unbacked silver in bullion accounts. He is alleging a breech of their actual legal obligations as a participant in the silver futures market. It is actually quite cut an dry to prove *IF* you can get the records *WHICH* is the sticking point.... funnily enough... eh?

You are not really sure what part of this you are on about are you? You seem to have it all mixed up


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## tothemax6

Please stick to the original debate (me attacking butlers idea of 'free market').


Mr Z said:


> You claimed JPM should be able to open as many futures as they want unhindered... I said NO thay cannot it is against the regulations and rightly so, then you blow off in some odd 'free market' rant without really understanding how and why futures are structured they way they are. The fact that futures need limitation is not in question, that was settled a long time ago and they have been regulated for a long time. Butlers concern is over the actual existing futures limits in relation to the size of the market.



You seem to treat the concepts of 'regulations' and 'commodity law' as hard and fast rules which were always there, and which are there for our own good. They are not. Regulatory laws are limits upon individual rights. Any statutes related to commodity trading which one could call 'commodity law' is merely a restriction on individuals rights to trade commodities. These are not good things, and they are the opposite of a free market.
Now, you can claim that a free market is bad, or that regulations are good, sure. But you cannot claim, that you can both have both regulation and a free market. 

No violations of anyone's rights occur because JPMorgan takes very large positions. So long as JPMorgan doesn't inform its stockholders and creditors 'we don't take very large positions', no one is defrauded. If JPMorgan takes a ridiculous position which goes against it, and it is forced to default on its obligations, it gets dissolved by a bankruptcy court (or at least in a functioning legal system without 'too big too fail, bailout' nonsense).


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## Mr Z

tothemax6 said:


> Please stick to the original debate (me attacking butlers idea of 'free market').
> 
> You seem to treat the concepts of 'regulations' and 'commodity law' as hard and fast rules which were always there, and which are there for our own good. They are not. Regulatory laws are limits upon individual rights. Any statutes related to commodity trading which one could call 'commodity law' is merely a restriction on individuals rights to trade commodities. *These are not good things*, and they are the opposite of a free market.




No that is patently *WRONG*, you obviously have no understanding of the dynamics at play in futures trading and the potential it offers to manipulate price in the smaller markets. As far as futures trading regulations go, well I guess they have always been there in one form or another, they certainly have evolved over the years and yes they are there for the general well being of the futures market. Hmmmm... again you misunderstand --> No they are not a restriction on anyones rights to trade commodities, they are limits to trading futures contracts. You can buy and sell limitless amounts spot, whatever you have and whatever you need. You have a marked tendency to mash the bullion banks, OTC markets/spot markets and the futures market into the the same mold and yell about freedom. They are markedly different ways to trade commodities, with different rules and regulations. To be very, very clear Mr Butler is talking about trading futures contracts in silver, *not silver bullion*, 99% of these contracts result in no real silver ever changing hands yet they can have a marked impact on the real commodities price. Enabling a large financial entity that never intends to supply or take delivery of real silver the ability to hold sway over more metal than the market can produce, just because they have the financial where withal to do it, is a recipe for chaos. That would give the big financial players all the power they need to bash the market around at will over the short to mid term. Not a situation that would benefit either side of the real market of producers and consumers. This is why limits are in place, the possibility of abusing futures has long been recognized and long been restricted... and rightly so.



tothemax6 said:


> Now, you can claim that a free market is bad, or that regulations are good, sure. But you cannot claim, that you can both have both regulation and a free market.




I'm sorry but that is not correct, free market capitalism can only exist because of the right regulation. You need strong contract law etc to make it work, you need the right regulatory framework to level the playing field and engender competition. No where will you find a successful economy where there is no regulation, it is a matter of having the right and relatively limited regulation. Total freedom is total chaos! All of stock related investments you make happen through regulated exchanges with limits to behavior e.g. rules for acquiring stock for short selling, your obligations when you do so, the penalties for not locating stock you have sold etc etc. The limits that are set in place across all futures are there for similar reasons i.e. to protect the market from abuse. Free markets and regulation go hand in hand, over regulation is bad but no regulation is just as bad. To believe that no regulation offers some sort of free trade nirvana is naive in the extreme.



tothemax6 said:


> No violations of anyone's rights occur because JPMorgan takes very large positions. So long as JPMorgan doesn't inform its stockholders and creditors 'we don't take very large positions', no one is defrauded. If JPMorgan takes a ridiculous position which goes against it, and it is forced to default on its obligations, it gets dissolved by a bankruptcy court (or at least in a functioning legal system without 'too big too fail, bailout' nonsense).




Again that is not correct... they are required to abide by the rules set in place by the exchange. Those rules dictate position limits and they are respected by the majority of market participants. By exceeding those limits they are violating the rights of every market participant that is operating within the exchanges rules. You seem to ignore the fact that there is *LAW* governing the behavior of commodity futures market participants. You also seem to think Mr Butler is a loon for point out that the COT numbers are close to impossible to achieve without some breach of the exchange limits having occurred.


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## sinner

tothemax6 said:


> No violations of anyone's rights occur because JPMorgan takes very large positions. So long as JPMorgan doesn't inform its stockholders and creditors 'we don't take very large positions', no one is defrauded. If JPMorgan takes a ridiculous position which goes against it, and it is forced to default on its obligations, it gets dissolved by a bankruptcy court (or at least in a functioning legal system without 'too big too fail, bailout' nonsense).




Isn't that exactly the whole point tothemax?

In a market where all the participants are accountable for their losses, there are no issues. You can speculate if you like, if you are wrong then expect a transfer of wealth against you. That is the essence of a free market.

But what if the marketplace is setup such that most players have to abide by those rules, but the biggest participants (who aren't even producers or consumers in any sense of the word) don't? i.e. some players don't get penalised by the market for being wrong? Or can play in such a way that the natural free market penalty is impossible to enforce? Not only does this break the correct transfer of wealth mechanism, it has the effect of building systemic imbalances into price discovery which are often impossible to remove without serious market upheavals.

Personally, I wish JPM all the best in their endeavour, I enjoy buying physical gold and silver from dealers who quote live prices at spot plus premium on the dips they tend to provide during London and NY hours. But the question is now loud and clear: is it still a free market that is setting the price of the underlying assets? Is price discovery during London and NY hours a "free market" price discovery mechanism? I think it's pretty clear (from technical, fundamental and legal perspectives) that it's not. 

Have you read the current lawsuit against JP Morgan re silver prices, which they are charged under the RICO act, a statute normally reserved for the US Government to prosecute Yakuza, Triads and originally designed by the same to indict Italian mafioso? 

Have you read the series of emails from Andrew Macguire to the CFTC, highlighting the manipulation in real time?

I don't think you are grasping this crucial point about what a free market is and therefore assigning to JPM free market participant status that they do not really deserve. 

Mr Z is to be commended for his patience with the rest of us nutters, imho.



Regardless of what any of us say or think, the market tends to have a way of working itself out. You can push price discovery, but it will usually end up pushing back.


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## tothemax6

Mr Z said:


> To be very, very clear Mr Butler is talking about trading futures contracts in silver, *not silver bullion*, 99% of these contracts result in no real silver ever changing hands yet they can have a marked impact on the real commodities price.



Yes, naturally. Trading leveraged positions on anything creates bigger price moves. Indeed far from this being a bad thing, it helps with the supply and demand process since they are functions of the price. 
Hypothetical instance: fund X wishes to speculate on bananas. The price is currently $1/kg. Fund X has insight (from weather modeling, surveying of farm yields, whatever) that there is going to be a shortfall of bananas this year. Fund X then buys epic quantity of banana futures contracts (not physical bananas, who needs a tonne of physical bananas?). This contract purchase is so big it forces price to $2/kg. Higher price then triggers farmers to overweight their efforts on bananas, shortfall is reduced. Beautiful isn't it?
Now suppose Fund Y is malicious and evil, with a lust for a good market bash-around. Sure he tries to smash down the price, but this just creates a great buying opportunity for Fund X, who _knows _the value.


Mr Z said:


> I'm sorry but that is not correct, free market capitalism can only exist because of the right regulation. You need strong contract law etc to make it work, you need the right regulatory framework to level the playing field and engender competition.



This is just more doublethink. Competition exists naturally. Those who claim that the 'playing field isn't level' are more often than not losers, seeking to tilt a flat field in their favour. 'Regulatory framework' is the condescending invention of politicians who believe they know best and should control peoples lives.
You are determined to believe that 2+2=5 and that regulation and a free market can simultaneously occur, so we will use an example:

Bob wants to sell Jane 10,000 fish, and she wants to buy them. 
Free market: he does so, she does so.
Now introduce example regulation: 'You cannot sell more than 1000 fish per year, to protect the business of small family fishermen who cannot compete with big fishing magnates.
Bob now attempts to sell the fish to Jane. Bob is prevented from doing so by a man with a gun stood between him and Jane. The man says 'that is more than 1000 fish, you are not permitted to make this trade'. 
In the former case, the freedom is obvious - the trade simply happens. In the later case, the lack of freedom is obvious - some arbitrary organization has declared that it has the right to control certain aspects Bob's and Jane's actions by force. 

Cognitive dissonance (doublethink) would be required to claim that in the latter case Bob and Jane were operating in a free market.


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## Mr Z

tothemax6 said:


> Yes, naturally. Trading leveraged positions on anything creates bigger price moves. Indeed far from this being a bad thing, it helps with the supply and demand process since they are functions of the price.
> Hypothetical instance: fund X wishes to speculate on bananas. The price is currently $1/kg. Fund X has insight (from weather modeling, surveying of farm yields, whatever) that there is going to be a shortfall of bananas this year. Fund X then buys epic quantity of banana futures contracts (not physical bananas, who needs a tonne of physical bananas?). This contract purchase is so big it forces price to $2/kg. Higher price then triggers farmers to overweight their efforts on bananas, shortfall is reduced. Beautiful isn't it?
> 
> Now suppose Fund Y is malicious and evil, with a lust for a good market bash-around. Sure he tries to smash down the price, but this just creates a great buying opportunity for Fund X, who _knows _the value.
> This is just more doublethink. Competition exists naturally. Those who claim that the 'playing field isn't level' are more often than not losers, seeking to tilt a flat field in their favour. 'Regulatory framework' is the condescending invention of politicians who believe they know best and should control peoples lives.
> You are determined to believe that 2+2=5 and that regulation and a free market can simultaneously occur, so we will use an example:
> 
> Bob wants to sell Jane 10,000 fish, and she wants to buy them.
> Free market: he does so, she does so.
> Now introduce example regulation: 'You cannot sell more than 1000 fish per year, to protect the business of small family fishermen who cannot compete with big fishing magnates.
> Bob now attempts to sell the fish to Jane. Bob is prevented from doing so by a man with a gun stood between him and Jane. The man says 'that is more than 1000 fish, you are not permitted to make this trade'.
> In the former case, the freedom is obvious - the trade simply happens. In the later case, the lack of freedom is obvious - some arbitrary organization has declared that it has the right to control certain aspects Bob's and Jane's actions by force.
> 
> Cognitive dissonance (doublethink) would be required to claim that in the latter case Bob and Jane were operating in a free market.




If it actually worked that way in all markets, yes it would be beautiful, but alas it doesn't! That is a grossly simplistic, and might I say very condescending analogy. When you have a large player in the futures market, acting with no limit and playing in a small market you then get a situation where it is very easy to suppress price constantly and make a profit doing it. The fact that these markets sell down very quickly and regain ground more slowly makes it a very simple operation to apply downward price pressure until the market breaks and then cover the sales at a profit. One of the things that makes this more possible in the silver is the unique nature of silver production, it is supply and demand inelastic because most of it comes out of the ground as a byproduct. Supply, by and large doesn't respond very well to price movement, it is certainly nothing like your grossly simplistic example.

Anywhoooo.... fish smish! You are giving a spot market example while arguing that futures should not be limited! Nobody expects limitations in the spot market nor do they exist!!!!!! JPM are selling paper contracts *NOT* silver, the paper contracts (futures) are limit in quantity (rightly so) while direct silver sales, per se, *are not!* (rightly so) Again I repeat that the futures are limited because they offer the ability to swamp a market utilizing the leverage offered even if you have no ability or intention to supply or take the material being traded. It is very much like being able to short sell a stock, *naked*, without limit. I can't imagine anyone would be silly enough to claim that is their right in a free market. 

A case could be made that if you don't own it or can't borrow to sell then you have no natural right to sell it, in any market!!! However futures markets are not even that stringent, they simply say that you can only sell so much (quite a generous limit BTW) and if you need to sell more you have to justify it with the exchange, hell it is not even a hard limit, big producers etc can exceed it as required if their real world hedging needs are larger than the rules cater for.

I'm amazed that you ignore the fact that most all market participants have willingly engaged in a futures market that have limits without complaint. Don't you think that if this where not advantageous these people would complain?

Anyway, your little "according to max" free market ideas are quaint and all but they have no bearing on the fact that JPM stand accused of abusing market power and exceeding position limits,a real criminal offense. Which is actually what you call Mr Butler a loon for pointing out. There is a class action against JPM right now over their decades of dubious activity in the silver market. Now I doubt that JPM will suffer much for it and I am sure it will be tied up in the "best legal system that money can buy" for so long that it will die a natural death of old age, but none the less there must be a prima facie case for the class action to get up in the first place.... seems that many don't agree with your idea of not criminal.

Hmmmm... double think... yeah LOL... more like NO THINK! Again you keep mashing together the various market types with your very confused ideas of how this silver market actually works. What can I say other that this is getting boring so ---> so long and thanks for all the fish, I'm leaving your fictitious and strange little "free market" planet that has no regulation and where all behave in a benign fashion in fear of 'market discipline' ! I look forward to skinning you in the market..... using the rules  Come trade Silver against me... I need to cut this months pay cheque.

CYA


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## Mr Z

Just one more shot...



tothemax6 said:


> *This is just more doublethink.* Competition exists naturally.




No it is not "just more doublethink" and while competition exists naturally, healthy competition doesn't, might has right where there are no laws. Good contract law and associated regulation are necessary precursors of capitalism. Go and study the history of Hong Kong and look to the reasons for its success. You will find good contract law and minimal but appropriate regulation set up the playing field for the beneficial aspects of free market competition to play out. Remove that structure and might has right, abuses will occur and small players will be marginalized and even eliminated. If you believe anything else you live in fluffy fairyland. You are, very naively I might add, arguing for anarchy! Now call me silly, but I can't recall any major civilization  that was built on a base of anarchy!  Can you?


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## adamim1

I don't consider a market to be free when a few big players can control price movements whenever they want. Laws are there to control this unfair manipulation.


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## adamim1

I posted the gold version in the "gold" thread.

Here is the silver version.


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## tothemax6

Mr Z said:


> Anywhoooo.... fish smish! You are giving a spot market example while arguing that futures should not be limited!



 OK insert 'for december delivery' after the word fish.







Mr Z said:


> A case could be made that if you don't own it or can't borrow to sell then you have no natural right to sell it, in any market!!!



Yes but that case follows the same idea as limiting futures sizes. It is the idea that because someone doesn't have the commodity _now_ then they have no possibility of guaranteeing having it in the future. However, every bank in the world works on this principle (with the 'commodity' in question being money). The force that keeps people in check and not over-issuing is risk of default.







Mr Z said:


> Good contract law and associated regulation are necessary precursors of capitalism. Go and study the history of Hong Kong and look to the reasons for its success.



Good contract law is sufficient, regulation is not capitalist. Hong kong follows the economic policy of 'positive non-interventionism'. It is so (relatively) capitalist and non-regulated that banks can still issue their own banknotes. Indeed it is the closest thing to a free market that the world has. 







Mr Z said:


> I look forward to skinning you in the market..... using the rules  Come trade Silver against me... I need to cut this months pay cheque.



Hope you weren't in at 49 . PS. I am not bearish silver for now, but it will be exposed to the coming Chinese construction bubble crash as it is an industrial commodity as well as 'money-like'. I would be more inclined to take a position on gold.


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## adamim1

huge drop in silver!!


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## Billyb

adamim1 said:


> huge drop in silver!!




That is a huge drop. This is the problem with silver, too easily manipulated for my liking. Gold is dropping a lot too but not to the same extent. It could also be due to change in margin requirements. The long term view can never be changed by short term factors such as these.


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## skyQuake

Billyb said:


> That is a huge drop. This is the problem with silver, too easily manipulated for my liking. Gold is dropping a lot too but not to the same extent. It could also be due to change in margin requirements. The long term view can never be changed by short term factors such as these.




Why is a price drop always manipulated? Maybe its a big 'risk off' night?


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## skc

skyQuake said:


> Why is a price drop always manipulated? Maybe its a big 'risk off' night?




If the price doesn't go where the retail guys want it to go it is always manipulated... But if it goes where they want then it's the fundamentals!


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## TabJockey

+1 against "manipulation" whinging. If an asset goes up fast you can expect it to fall just as fast when sentiment changes! 

CCU is going to cop it hard today.


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## Billyb

skyQuake said:


> Why is a price drop always manipulated? Maybe its a big 'risk off' night?




Did I say price drops are always manipulated? Oh, I'm sorry - oh wait, I didn't say that, you must be just putting words in my mouth. 

You only need to look at what happened to silver in April/May and 1980 to begin to consider the possibility that the silver market is small and therefore it can be moved easily and large daily changes in silver is not abnormal. Gold, which is a much bigger market (and therefore harder to move prices), isn't behave like this. Whether the recent price action in silver was manipulation or not is debatable but it would be naive to think it hasn't been done before, and it would be even more naive to think large daily fluctuations of 7+% in silver price cant happen again, at least until things settle down a bit in the world.

Volume on the CME so far was not as massive as April/ May , that's good news IMO, suggests that a lot of the sellers have been washed out.



TabJockey said:


> +1 against "manipulation" whinging. If an asset goes up fast you can expect it to fall just as fast when sentiment changes!




Thanks for your constructive 'input', I hope it made you feel good to label my post a whinge even though it wasn't. Perhaps your ego has been a bit too busy to notice that silver has not been going up fast all all since the recent crash.


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## Mr Z

tothemax6 said:


> It is the idea that because someone doesn't have the commodity _now_ then they have no possibility of guaranteeing having it in the future. However, every bank in the world works on this principle (with the 'commodity' in question being money). The force that keeps people in check and not over-issuing is risk of default.




You use this as an argument for allowing an entity to short sell more of a commodity that they can possibly acquire? What risk of default? 99% of the market settles in cash, there is a 1% risk of being asked to deliver! Nobody that is serious goes to the Comex for metal, it is just not there!

If you understand how markets work (I mean the real dynamics of a market), you understand the leverage at play and you get that there is no real threat of having to preform in terms of the underlying item being traded... then if you cannot put those things together and work out that if there are no limits the market can be abused by the player with the deepest pockets THEN I CANNOT HELP YOU! Your unregulated market ideas only actually work where the players are trading a *REAL* market not a market in a derivative. A derivate product offers unnatural features because it is a manufactured item. Futures contracts come with a complete set of obligations, in a sense they are nothing without regulation, they are defined by the rules that the traders of them agree to, one of which is the total amount that they can trade. There is nothing natural about them unlike the natural market examples you use to prop up the "trade as much as you like" free market concept. In a natural market that works, in a derivative market it is insanity. You need to learn the very real differences and stop mixing it all up as the same thing... it isn't.

By your rules I should be able to short sell naked more stock than exists in a companies float, to the point that I can destroy its ability to raise capital and send it broke thus becoming a self fulfilling prophecy and winning the trade. Unlimited selling with no requirement to own.... all I have changed is the instrument. Sound workable? No... Need rules and regulation? Yes... Is controlled and regulated by the ASX? Yes.

The bottom line is where you are trading and artificial construct you need some limitations in place because you are not directly limited by the natural properties of a market. i.e. the laws of supply and demand. Silver is one such case where the Comex's link to supply and demand is so tenuous it can easily be abused. If it where that a mere 30% of the market resulted in a physical deal then it would be different, but as it stands anyone with deep pockets and a degree of financial sophistication and play this market like fiddle. Just read the case against JPM and you will gain and inkling as to how this is done.... No limits... LOL *YEAH RIGHT, that will work* LOL!

Futures are and have been limited for a long time, there is a reason for that even if you can't get you mind around it.


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## tothemax6

skc said:


> If the price doesn't go where the retail guys want it to go it is always manipulated... But if it goes where they want then it's the fundamentals!



Lol, I know, its a hoot.
When its going your way - you're a genius. When its going against you - its because of evil forces beyond your control. 


Mr Z said:


> Your unregulated market ideas only actually work where the players are trading a *REAL* market not a market in a derivative



Whatever, a derivative is just a contract. Anyone is free to write as many contracts as they want. If they breach a contract, the courts are there to deal with them.
To regulate every type of contract there is to ensure it meets some fuzzy regulators idea as to what is OK, is lunacy. It is not workable, it is not moral, and it creates its own problems.


----------



## Mr Z

tothemax6 said:


> Whatever, a derivative is just a contract.




Yeah, and the ones called futures have LIMITS! It is a part of the deal!!!!! In the contract so to speak. YIKES, it is like talking to cement.



tothemax6 said:


> Anyone is free to write as many contracts as they want.




Not if the contract says you can't! See the irony Spock?



tothemax6 said:


> If they breach a contract, the courts are there to deal with them.




Exceeding the position limits is breaching the contract and the courts are being asked to deal with it. That is real, it is happening now...unlike on fantasy island, or where ever it is you are!



tothemax6 said:


> To regulate every type of contract there is to ensure it meets some fuzzy regulators idea as to what is OK, is lunacy.




There is nothing fuzzy about position limits and they where bought in at the request of market participants and are easy to understand in structure and intent. 



tothemax6 said:


> It is not workable, it is not moral, and it creates its own problems.




It is workable, it has worked for the best part of a century, it is moral and you can't cite one problem that position limits in futures causes that has not been dealt with.

Now try coming up with a coherent argument, all you seem to have is dogma!


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## Mr Z

tothemax6 said:


> Lol, I know, its a hoot. When its going your way - you're a genius. When its going against you - its because of evil forces beyond your control.




Bugs are mad for manipulation, every wiggle on the chart is down to it. Obviously that is not so, but that does not mean there are not periodic efforts to manage these markets. Reality lay in the middle, gold and silver have many powerful vested interests... to believe that it is a market free of manipulation is as naive as to ascribe every price move down to the 'cartel'. It is just not that simple.... years ago it was simpler and you could make good money trading it (I did) but these days it is getting messier and messier.


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## ROE

Funny how people complain about manipulation about stuff going down
but when things goes up they don't think otherwise?

it's called systematic/market  risk, when you buy stock, silver,gold, houses or whatever you are are facing an unknown future risk of price movement.

no point whining about someone manipulating or insider trading or any of that stuff
that the risk you face when you part with your money hoping for higher return than bonds.

accept those risks and work to mitigate it you have better chance than bitching about someone manipulating the system.

My mitigation risk is I don't buy gold or silver because if **** happen and those stuff tanks and it sit there for decades and doesn't generate me an income...that risk is unacceptable, where I buy a house/stocks and it give me reasonable rent/dividend and house/stock price plummet for decades... I can live with the rent/dividend I get ...


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## Mr Z

You call sub bank rates on resi RE with no real prospect of growth for quite a number of year reasonable? Against gold that has compounded at 20% for ten years?

Oh jeez.... 

Manipulation is part and parcel of most markets and yeah we live with it, but what does go on in silver is quite probably criminal. If I where you I'd take the time to learn more about it before you pass comment.


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## TabJockey

Back down to $26. The silver chart reminds me of a pump and dump O&G stock, not a commodity in demand!

In economic theory you can expect commodity prices to move towards Marginal Cost. This is cost to produce + producers profit, which is not exactly set in stone, but for the MC of silver you can probably make a case for about $10 / oz.

Food for thought.


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## Mr Z

Junk food.


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## TabJockey

I do not agree with your broad brush analysis of the residential investment market Mr Z. Gold has no yield, it is a clear disadvantage. With property prices coming down (and I believe they will continue to come down) yields will continue to get better in property and that is a vehicle that can suit many. The average is pretty average at the moment but its all about picking out the opportunities in the market, which are always there.

More solid analysis, less e-thug trolling perhaps?


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## Mr Z

Resi property has as good as no yield, after costs you are less than inflation by a good margin. With growth looking challenged why would you do it? Gold has been compounding at 20%, who needs yield? You are better off in a high % cash account than a house and commercial KILLS resi for yield ATM. There is no sane reason to buy resi property at these yields and multiples... none at all! There are plenty of stocks with MUCH better grossed up dividend yields and far better capital growth prospects.

e-thug trolling? LOL dude....NO that really was junk food for thought! Not applicable to silver at all and shows no understanding of the market. Silver is not your average commodity for many reasons, it simply cannot be analyzed in such a simplistic fashion.


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## tothemax6

Mr Z said:


> Yeah, and the ones called futures have LIMITS! It is a part of the deal!!!!! In the contract so to speak. YIKES, it is like talking to cement.



In your case even the cement would be shaking its head.

You yell 'LIMITS!' as though that is some kind of axiom, some kind of universal law beyond question, and a conclusion in itself. And _I_ am called the dogmatic one. The limits themselves are manufactured by men in precisely the manner I have described - thugs telling free men what they can or cannot do by their own mutual free will. Crime is crime, regardless of whether one calls it 'regulation', 'limits', or whatever. 



Mr Z said:


> Not if the contract says you can't! See the irony Spock?



This was your rebuttal to "Anyone is free to write as many contracts as they want." If you can read this now and still consider your rebuttal sound, you need to self medicate: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance.
Either way you are entrenching (as indicated by your irrational use of the word 'LIMITS' as a conclusion in itself), refusing to follow logical process, and basically behaving irrationally.
Hence this 'debate' is pointless and done.


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## Mr Z

tothemax6 said:


> In your case even the cement would be shaking its head.
> 
> You yell 'LIMITS!' as though that is some kind of axiom, some kind of universal law beyond question, and a conclusion in itself. And _I_ am called the dogmatic one. The limits themselves are manufactured by men in precisely the manner I have described - thugs telling free men what they can or cannot do by their own mutual free will. Crime is crime, regardless of whether one calls it 'regulation', 'limits', or whatever.




Oh jeeezzzzz.... the whole futures construct is ARTIFICIAL and you are carrying on about limiting them as a crime! They manufactured the limits for the manufactured contracts after long experience showed them that without limits they could easily be manipulated. These people are trading a contract and a part of the contract is a generous limit to the trading of the contract, and that is a CRIME ---> no dude it is a clause in a contract which you agree to by trading the contract. Now breaching the contract is a CRIME which is why they are being dragged through court over it, is that so hard to understand? 



tothemax6 said:


> This was your rebuttal to "Anyone is free to write as many contracts as they want." If you can read this now and still consider your rebuttal sound, you need to self medicate: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance.
> Either way you are entrenching (as indicated by your irrational use of the word 'LIMITS' as a conclusion in itself), refusing to follow logical process, and basically behaving irrationally.
> Hence this 'debate' is pointless and done.




Oh dear... it is painful to me that you cannot see how limitless trading of futures can be abused. It clearly demonstrates that you have no idea how these markets really function. Yes it is a pointless debate... you are arguing with reality, you are arguing against a clearing house market design that was developed from long experience and has functioned well for around a century. You are effectively arguing that I should be able to naked short sell any stock into the ground because to limit my right to sell what I don't have is a CRIME!!!!!

Clearing house markets are regulated for good reason, they are designed to create a level playing field, the rules are there to enable the small players to compete with the large without fear of abuse. The ASX has rules and regulations to achieve just that, which is why I can't naked short sell a cash burning junior miner into the ground... a strategy guaranteed to work if no limitation existed!

Without GOOD regulation you simply cannot have and exchange traded, clearing house based instrument like options of futures. To remove regulation is to remove the structure with in which they trade and to remove the reason that they are trusted.

It is truly gobsmacking that you can't see that without some logical regulation these things can be misused. Cripes, and you give me market 101 examples using fish.... futures are not fish!!!! They offer much more sophistication and power than Haddock. I suggest you read the charges against JPM about how options and futures are combined and used to achieve a lower price and profit... all that is required is no limit to selling and deeper pockets than your opposition.

Have you ever traded futures? Do you actually get these markets... oh wait... no look who I am talking at --> Cognitive dissonance, double speak man! I think you swallowed all the coolaid!


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## Logique

They're saying est. 7 mill oz (200 tons) of silver ingots, at money value ~150 mill pounds sterling worth, in that newly discovered shipwreck off the west coast of Ireland, sunk by a U-boat. 

Salvage attempt next year at depth nearly 5,000m. Co. is Odyssey Marine. 

(Radio National this morning).


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## Mr Z

Ross Beaty: Silver Demand Defies Conventional Economic Logic (mp3)


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## adamim1

I was just doing some charts this afternoon. I've been reading a lot into trading using momentum divergence. Here is a nice chart showing the divergence trade indicator. Would of been a nice short.





Uploaded with ImageShack.us


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## adamim1

*The short position in silver is the lowest its been in years, massive short reduction last week.
*
"Well, the Commitment of Traders Report lived up to its advanced billing...especially in silver. In silver, the bullion banks decreased their net short position by an incredible 16,446 contracts...which is 82.2 million ounces. I've never seen a 1-week change this large in silver, ever! The net short position in the Commercial category declined to 121.3 million ounces. It's been many years since the Commercial net short position has been this low.

The '4 or less' bullion banks are now short 159.7 million ounces...and the '5 through 8' Commercial traders are short 42.9 million ounces. So these eight traders combined are short 202.6 million ounces of silver, which is 167% of the entire Commercial net short position. If these eight Commercial traders disappeared, the remaining Commercial traders [Ted Butler's raptors...all 34 of them] are massively long the silver market, just like everyone else.

In gold, the Commercial net short position declined by 30,945 contracts...or 3.1 million ounces...and is now down to 16.7 million ounces. Like silver, it's been many years since the Commercial net short position in gold has been this low.

The '4 or less' Commercial traders are short 15.3 million ounces...and the '5 through 8' Commercial traders are short 4.1 million ounces. These eight Commercial traders [almost all of them bullion banks] are short 19.4 million ounces of gold, which represents 116% of the Commercial net short position.

Just like in silver, if these eight traders vanished, the remaining 41 traders in the Commercial category are net long the gold market.

What's even more incredible is the fact that since the Tuesday cut-off, there has been a further 20,000 contract decline in gold open interest, just on Wednesday and Thursday alone...plus further declines in silver open interest as well. I'm only guessing here, but I'd say that the true COT numbers are actually much better than yesterday's report indicate.

But, as Ted Butler has been hammering away to me on the phone all this week, the fact is that the real reason the price declined was because of paper trading on the Comex...and it had nothing whatsoever to do with real-world supply and demand fundamentals. Eight [and probably much fewer] traders in gold and silver control the price of both these metals...and that's flat-out illegal. They hold a short-side corner on these two markets. The tail is wagging the dog, as there is no true price-discovery mechanism allowed to operate in these markets. Can you imagine how fast the CME and CFTC would react if eight or fewer traders had a long-side corner on any commodity??? Ask the Hunt brothers and you'll find out...and they didn't even get close to the position sizes that JPMorgan et al, hold. Then there's the Sumitomo copper case...but I don't have time to get into that here."

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/home


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## TabJockey

I agree that clearly the price of silver is not determined by fundamental values in the near term, but if you have a look, none of the commodity markets are. They are all governed by expectations of future supply and demand. Look at copper, smashed recently but the supply/demand equation has only gotten stronger, by my number consumption was up 7% in September with supply reasonably flat.

Copper of coarse is being smashed as producers hedge in at above $3.50 because if there is another global recession then $1.50 /lb is not out of the question.

Now back to silver, if you consider the fundamentals of the metal, demand is growing strongly, supply is also growing strongly, there is no real structural deficit that will play out over the coming medium term, unlike copper. If silver maintains a price of above $30, the supply side reaction can be severe. Silver can be mined for an average cash cost of $10/oz.

In my research silver does not have the fundamental shortage of supply compared with expected demand growth to justify a price over $25 / oz into the medium term. I think it will return to equilibrium when more players like CCU start producing at huge margins.

This could take 3-5 years though, so if you still want to make a buck on this pony its probably got life left in her yet.


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## Mr Z

TabJockey said:


> If silver maintains a price of above $30, the supply side reaction can be severe. Silver can be mined for an average cash cost of $10/oz.




That right there shows you don't understand the silver market. 

Silver is supply inelastic, doubling the price will only marginally increase supply BECAUSE it is largely byproduct. No mine will up its main production because silver prices are up, sure it is nice that the byproduct credit is up, if they get it, if they have not already sold it to the likes of Silver Wheaton, but there will be no real supply response.

Silver is also demand inelastic simply because very small amounts of it are used in any given product and there is no ready substitute for it at anywhere near silvers price. Again doubling silvers price will have no meaningful impact on the margin in the goods that are produced using silver or the demand for it. 

Silver does not react like copper, it is a very unique market. The main driver of silver price is the marginal demand for it as an investment product, its role as a precious metal. If you take the time to study precious metals you will notice that unlike most things demand tends to rise in line with price over time and that will be the case until the wider economic issues are solved, debt is paid down and real rates go substantially positive. 

Your mistake is to 1. analyze industrial silver like it is copper, it is not, it is inelastic from a supply and demand stance. That means price tends to over and under preform in bull and bear markets. 2. ignore investment demand, the silver price is all about investment demand at the margin, which currently is large and growing fast.

So how you can conclude that there is no structural deficit I don't know, that is unknowable when it comes to a precious metal that has monetary demand.


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## TabJockey

Silver supply is certainly inelastic at the moment, as most of it is produced as a by product, but a medium term supply response is unavoidable if prices stay at these levels. There are numerous economical silver assets around the world which are not being developed because of the general uncertainty surrounding the silver price into the medium term (3-5 years).

You would have to be brave to start developing a silver mine today with a projected cash cost of $10/oz for production 2014. However if silver holds above $30 for another year or two investors may be willing to take the punt.

I agree with the idea that demand will increase with price. Silver has certainly enjoyed riding on the coattails of gold over the past few years however I question the assumption that is it a monetary store of value similar to gold. 

In european culture silver has a monetary history but demand growth is coming from Asia, which has much less regard for silver than it does for gold. I would argue that most of the investment demand growth coming for silver is not because of the increasing status of precious metals vs fiat currencies in the current world economic outlook but simply punters out to make a buck in one of the few markets around currently in a strong upward trend.

I think you can look to price correlation with equities as proof that silver is very much a risk asset as opposed to a defensive asset. The spot price tanked very very hard (12% in day?) in the last equity market sell off and I would expect this correlation to continue.

Perhaps you are thinking on a much shorter time frame than myself Mr Z? What sort of market predictions are you making? If silver is supply _and_ demand inelastic then what price do you believe equilibrium is at?


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## Mr Z

TabJockey said:


> Silver supply is certainly inelastic at the moment, as most of it is produced as a by product, but a medium term supply response is unavoidable if prices stay at these levels. There are numerous economical silver assets around the world which are not being developed because of the general uncertainty surrounding the silver price into the medium term (3-5 years).




Unless you are suggesting that there are many pure silver plays of significance yet to found and developed, which is unlikely given that most silver is discovered as byproduct, then I am not sure where you think that this supply response is coming from?



TabJockey said:


> You would have to be brave to start developing a silver mine today with a projected cash cost of $10/oz for production 2014. However if silver holds above $30 for another year or two investors may be willing to take the punt.




Which speaks to the point, even if you have found it as a pure play are you going to develop it? Again how is that encouraging a big supply response?



TabJockey said:


> I agree with the idea that demand will increase with price. Silver has certainly enjoyed riding on the coattails of gold over the past few years however I question the assumption that is it a monetary store of value similar to gold.




Silver actually has a better combination of fundamentals than gold, it is a misnomer that it "rides on golds coattails"



TabJockey said:


> In european culture silver has a monetary history but demand growth is coming from Asia, which has much less regard for silver than it does for gold. I would argue that most of the investment demand growth coming for silver is not because of the increasing status of precious metals vs fiat currencies in the current world economic outlook but simply punters out to make a buck in one of the few markets around currently in a strong upward trend.




Plenty of silver goes to India, China is a net importer and is only just opening its markets to precious metals investment. Silver is the poor mans gold where ever you go, it will be the same there. To suggest that the Chinese will pass on silver while taking up gold is a little short sighted. At this point that is also something you cannot say with any authority, it is a punt on your part, do you really understand the likely Chinese reaction that well? I very much doubt it! Silver is also a small market, investment demand from the current sources is more that enough to tilt this silver market to the sky.



TabJockey said:


> I think you can look to price correlation with equities as proof that silver is very much a risk asset as opposed to a defensive asset. The spot price tanked very very hard (12% in day?) in the last equity market sell off and I would expect this correlation to continue.




You really need to look at when and how that sell off happened in the futures market to understand what really happened. To try and draw a fundamental conclusion from that price action is misguided. Very large lots where offer in the very illiquid access markets in a way that no seller seeking to maximize price would. Instead I suggest you look at the response to that price plunge, many dealers in the US sold out of physical silver that day. The demand was huge ---> that tells you how it is regarded from an investment stand point in that country!



TabJockey said:


> Perhaps you are thinking on a much shorter time frame than myself Mr Z? What sort of market predictions are you making? If silver is supply _and_ demand inelastic then what price do you believe equilibrium is at?




To predict the silver market in terms of price would be an arrogance on my part. Short term? No, I have held silver since the $4 range and listened to people like yourself rationalize why it cannot go higher every step of the way. The thing that always seems to be missing from their equations is what is happening to the globes major currencies and an appreciation that silver has actually been money for a greater period of human history than gold. The investment demand for precious metals will not abate until the western worlds economies have resolve their debt issues and have stabilized their currencies OR the east has become widely trusted with open, deep and liquid financial markets, they holders of the recognized reserve currency and they have internal demand going and are growing independent of anything the west is doing.

There is simply too much money sloshing around this system with no demand for it, no opportunity for it, a short look at the US banking system will confirm that. This fact will price any reliable returns close to zero in real terms, indeed negative in some cases. In such an environment demand for precious metals will continue and to point to short term, hedge fund driven liquidity events as fundamental evidence that the real safe haven in this world is UST's is misguided to say the least.

Every price has four elements in it, two sets of supply and demand. Supply and demand for the item itself and supply and demand for the currency that is being used to price the item. Most so called F/A's completely ignore the second dynamic, precious metals are all about the second dynamic, period, end of story. Analyze gold as if it where copper and you'd decide that price should have crash from the exorbitant $250 low to near nothing as there is plenty above ground supply that needs to be consumed before it makes sense to dig anymore up. Did that happen... no, have gold and silver out preformed virtually every other asset class since... yes.

End of story...

In all probability five to ten years are left in this market if they do the right things. That is despite the fact that silver production will rise over the next few years as it is unlikely that it will rise anywhere near fast enough. Joe six pack can't afford $1600 gold but $30 silver is another story all together.


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## adamim1

Sales from the US mint
". Baring any further update on Monday, total sales for September are as follows:  91,000 ounces of gold eagles...13,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and a whopping 4,460,500 silver eagles, which is the second largest sales month for silver eagles in all of 2011...to date."

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/home

Many readers of Ted butlers articles actually send in figures from local bullion dealers. On these pull back days a lot of the dealers sell out of silver! If silver was actually price on physical demand the price would be a lot high, the fact is silver is priced off the paper market.


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## tothemax6

Lol, Mr Z is writing essays again.


----------



## Mr Z

tothemax6 said:


> Lol, Mr Z is writing essays again.




I'm sorry, I know we had this issue last time that I tried to make you concentrate beyond your capability. I will try and keep it short and as simple as possible in future. You know, at your level...


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## adamim1

Received this in a subscription service today. I don't think it was actually provided for the subscribers, simply just noting to us that its a good read. Its the background story/timeline of the silver manipulation.

Its only short (1.5 pages), but a good read.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/67350783/Silver-Gorillas-CFTC-Etc-1

I simply can't believe how the CFTC and JP morgan get away with this.


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## explod

When on evidence that was being reported of the JPmorgan manipulation a year or so back I was laughed at here on ASF when putting forward such propositions.

I do not need to post up much anymore as the message has now spread.

You can find a lot more on the subject by checking this website every day or so.

http://www.gata.org/

To which Ted Butler is often a contributor too.


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## Mr Z

I got bored with the whole idea back in 2003, it was just a fact of the market, you traded it and took the cheap silver with your profits. Looking back it was a gift. Now we are in transition the whole thing is less predictable and tactics have changed significantly. This game is not as easy to play as it once was.

I bet you when it ends, and it will, the manipulation crowd will still be yelling manipulation from the tops of the hills. Silver is volatile and will remain so for a while to come IMO... that much will not change easily, only the reasons for the volatility will change. I hope it gets back to being predicable, I'm lazy, I don't like working this hard to make a dollar.


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## Mr Z

PS -> I think that the general expectations of a free silver market are, shall we say, a little extreme. Freeing the market could produce a monster spike and crash that, ironically, could damage silver for years.


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## explod

Mr Z said:


> PS -> I think that the general expectations of a free silver market are, shall we say, a little extreme. Freeing the market could produce a monster spike and crash that, ironically, could damage silver for years.




In spite of that I am going to go out on a limb and say that when it moves up next we are going to have a very big liftoff and it could be soon.

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/10/comex-commercial-silver-net-shorts-lowest-in-eight-years-.html


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## explod

> As global economic growth disintegrates so will the demand for base metals – which 70% of silver is a by-product.  On top of that, silver ore grades are relentlessly falling in mines throughout the world which takes an increasing amount of energy just to keep production flat.  If the mining industry tries to incorporate more human and animal labor to offset declining oil based energy in the future, it will do so only at much lower rates of production than today.  This is due to the fact that human or animal labor cannot match the extraction rate of diesel powered excavators or huge dump trucks when it comes to mining silver.
> 
> Then there is the negative effect of a global depression on the production of silver.  Presently the world has entered into tremendous chaos and economic turmoil.  Conditions are ripe for a complete disintegration of the financial markets, thus pushing the world over the edge into a new dark age of hyperinflationary depression.  In this sort of atmosphere, countries may resort to the nationalization of mines as well as other protectionist’s policies.
> 
> When the nails of the peak silver coffin are added up, the death of increasing future supply is close at hand.  The CEO’s and analysts in the mining industry are for the most part oblivious to these factors that will destroy their ability to make viable forecasts of future projects.  It amazes me to see professionals plan a huge open-pit mine with a 25-45 year economic plan without any consideration of what the energy environment will be like at that time.  For some strange reason, there is this false assumption that “If we build it, the energy will come.”




For the serious investor this is a very comprehensive outlook backed up by solid facts in my view.

http://www.silvergoldsilver.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=45&Itemid=9

Got physical silver in the hand?

then no worries


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## adamim1

Found this article. Pretty much makes it clear that the CTFC will probably have the vote on the18th. It is less likely that they will postpone again

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/04/financial-cftc-hearing-idUSN1E7931HG20111004

What I am wondering is that after they vote these new rules in... what happens next? How long before these new rules are enacted? Immediately? Will this actually stop the silver manipulation.. and if it does, should be expect one last manipulation before the 18th of October to close all the short positions?


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## Amalgam

It is with some interest that the Perth Mint has been unable to keep up with silver bar production and has stopped accepting back orders. This is despite increasing capacity earlier this year.

This sort of thing has been said every time the price of silver has taken a tumble, so it's a bit like "The Boy who Cried Wolf", but if you look at the Perth Mint's own website right now, the 10oz, 1kg and 100oz bars are unavailable: http://www.perthmintbullion.com/au/View-All-Bullion.aspx




TabJockey said:


> In european culture silver has a monetary history but demand growth is coming from Asia, which has much less regard for silver than it does for gold.




I know I'm late to this discussion, but I would take issue with the above statement. 

The word for bank in Chinese, Japanese and Korean is 銀行: [銀] means silver (not gold!), and [行] means movement, or circulation - the idea being that a bank is a place to trade silver. 

China was the last country to leave the _silver_ standard in 1935.

It's easy to make the argument that silver has a stronger and more recent history as a monetary metal in East Asia than anywhere in the West.


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## tothemax6

Amalgam said:


> The word for bank in Chinese, Japanese and Korean is 銀行: [銀] means silver (not gold!), and [行] means movement, or circulation - the idea being that a bank is a place to trade silver.
> 
> China was the last country to leave the _silver_ standard in 1935.
> 
> It's easy to make the argument that silver has a stronger and more recent history as a monetary metal in East Asia than anywhere in the West.



True, but this is not to say that the silver standard was superior. As economies developed in the West, there was a default movement away from the silver standard and towards the gold standard (until the later was destroyed by politicians). This is due to the increasing transaction volumes that accompany economic growth giving gold the edge (higher 'value density'), and the higher inflation rate of silver (easier and more voluminous mining) making it a lesser quality money.

The same forces would have, and did, applied to the East. Japan moved to the gold standard as soon as it could (although this was partially due to the desire to access credit from Europe).


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## choofer

tothemax6 said:


> True, but this is not to say that the silver standard was superior. As economies developed in the West, there was a default movement away from the silver standard and towards the gold standard (until the later was destroyed by politicians). This is due to the increasing transaction volumes that accompany economic growth giving gold the edge (higher 'value density'), and the higher inflation rate of silver (easier and more voluminous mining) making it a lesser quality money.
> 
> The same forces would have, and did, applied to the East. Japan moved to the gold standard as soon as it could (although this was partially due to the desire to access credit from Europe).




Well bro you can not eat silver. Depression coming to a store near you. Go the greedy people enjoy your day out lol


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## Mr Z

Amalgam said:


> It's easy to make the argument that silver has a stronger and more recent history as a monetary metal in East Asia than anywhere in the West.




It's true but it will be hard to convince some people of that. 

When you consider the value of gold an the average wage in places like India and China I think you will see many opting for silver as the price of the metals rise. Anecdotally many Americans are making that choice despite much higher levels of income.



choofer said:


> Well bro you can not eat silver. Depression coming to a store near you. Go the greedy people enjoy your day out lol




LOL... no you don't eat silver silly! You swap it for stuff you can eat, that is how money works  

Why defending yourself is greed I will never know!

Now I will retire to my cave to chew on some Bison... CYA!


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## Mr Z

Amalgam said:


> This sort of thing has been said every time the price of silver has taken a tumble




Actually, to date, this has happened on the big price rises. I have spent too much time over the years pointing out to people that small product shortage is not a silver shortage. The very notable thing about this time is the demand was unleashed by the price fall, typically (although not logically!!) in the past this would kill demand for a time. This is a very interesting development, people are actually buying the dips!


----------



## Amalgam

tothemax6 said:


> True, but this is not to say that the silver standard was superior. As economies developed in the West, there was a default movement away from the silver standard and towards the gold standard (until the later was destroyed by politicians). This is due to the increasing transaction volumes that accompany economic growth giving gold the edge (higher 'value density'), and the higher inflation rate of silver (easier and more voluminous mining) making it a lesser quality money.




True, but also at the same time in history, China was running large trade surpluses, exporting goods to the West, and thus draining the world of silver. Would anyone like to parallels with the current situation? In the mid 19th century, this of course ended with the Opium Wars and the collapse of Chinese society, from which they have only in recent decades recovered from.



Mr Z said:


> I have spent too much time over the years pointing out to people that small product shortage is not a silver shortage.




Indeed - I wasn't pointing it out as a tin foil observer crying that the world has run out of silver, just that it's indicative of a very large increase in demand for physical bullion.


----------



## choofer

Mr Z said:


> It's true but it will be hard to convince some people of that.
> 
> When you consider the value of gold an the average wage in places like India and China I think you will see many opting for silver as the price of the metals rise. Anecdotally many Americans are making that choice despite much higher levels of income.
> 
> 
> 
> LOL... no you don't eat silver silly! You swap it for stuff you can eat, that is how money works
> 
> 
> Why defending yourself is greed I will never know!
> 
> Now I will retire to my cave to chew on some Bison... CYA!




Bison Burgers!! Sounds great dude. I'm in my cave munching on some wild boar. Very nice thank-you
cheers bro


----------



## Mr Z

Amalgam said:


> Indeed - I wasn't pointing it out as a tin foil observer crying that the world has run out of silver, just that it's indicative of a very large increase in demand for physical bullion.




Yes.. no... I wasn't suggesting that you where, just that it is a feature of these high demand periods and that this is the only one that I remember where the dip has been bought with such aggression. A very interesting development all in all!


----------



## tothemax6

Amalgam said:


> True, but also at the same time in history, China was running large trade surpluses, exporting goods to the West, and thus draining the world of silver. Would anyone like to parallels with the current situation?



No, I can't see how that parallels any current situation, assuming it was true.


Amalgam said:


> In the mid 19th century, this of course ended with the Opium Wars and the collapse of Chinese society, from which they have only in recent decades recovered from.



Chuckle, 'I guess I don't need this rubbish any more' <throws out east asia history book>.


----------



## Mr Z

*Some manipulation fun!*


----------



## Mr Z

One day Bill will learn how to construct a logical argument. GATA always seem to shoot at their feet every time they get in these situations. 

You have to love the Irish moderator! 

Definition --> A rhetorical question is a figure of speech in the form of a question posed for its persuasive effect *without the expectation of a reply*.



To be sure, to be sure!


----------



## Mr Z

*Apparently the Asians don't like silver...*

... so someone was saying, anywhooo --->

*Chinese Silver Investment Going Parabolic*

... bring on the hedging.


----------



## DB008

*Re: Some manipulation fun!*



Mr Z said:


>







Here we go...


----------



## Mr Z

*Manipulation anyone?*

*Bart Chilton on KWN*


----------



## Mr Z

*Re: Some manipulation fun!*



DB008 said:


> Here we go...




LOL... that is what I mean't to post! Who'd thunk they did a trailer? I should have watched it first eh?


----------



## explod

> Mr Z
> 
> As for the Australian government confiscating gold, the law already exists to allow for this and all that is required is the governments will to exercise it. Silver is another story but in Australia you can be asked to hand in your gold... to my knowledge it has never been done but???!




Mr Z, on the gold thread you made the above comment earlier this evening.

I have favoured silver for my portfolio for reasons of possible confiscation, and of course as I believe the ratio to gold and silver will reduce over time.

However  I take interest in your comment above saying "Silver is another story", do you infer anything? , such as possibilites of confiscation.


----------



## Mr Z

They'd need a new law to do it so it is hard to see that it would be worth it. I doubt that they'd even go for the gold these days, I think that the law is a relic from when gold played a bigger role in the system. Sure the law is there but I'd say that is the end of the story.


----------



## explod

Mr Z said:


> They'd need a new law to do it so it is hard to see that it would be worth it. I doubt that they'd even go for the gold these days, I think that the law is a relic from when gold played a bigger role in the system. Sure the law is there but I'd say that is the end of the story.




Thanks Z, we do live in an intersting time.


----------



## skyQuake

explod said:


> Mr Z, on the gold thread you made the above comment earlier this evening.
> 
> I have favoured silver for my portfolio for reasons of possible confiscation, and of course as I believe the ratio to gold and silver will reduce over time.
> 
> However  I take interest in your comment above saying "Silver is another story", do you infer anything? , such as possibilites of confiscation.




Link to the confiscation post or law? Couldnt find it in the thread. Thanks


----------



## Mr Z

skyQuake said:


> Link to the confiscation post or law? Couldnt find it in the thread. Thanks




Please? and it is in the gold thread.


----------



## DB008

Mr Z said:


> Please? and it is in the gold thread.




Somewhere in Part 4 of the Banking Act 1959 - C2011C00863

http://www.comlaw.gov.au/Details/C2011C00863/Html/Text#_Toc307311846


----------



## Bron Suchecki

DB008 said:


> Somewhere in Part 4 of the Banking Act 1959 - C2011C00863
> 
> http://www.comlaw.gov.au/Details/C2011C00863/Html/Text#_Toc307311846




It starts at Section 41 in Part 4, see my blog post on it and discussion of its implications http://goldchat.blogspot.com/2008/11/australian-gold-confiscation.html

My view is silver is not explicitly mentioned and I do not think it will be confiscated as the reason Govt wants gold is to use it to settle international transactions and it is impractical to transport silver around the world compared to gold. Central bankers hold gold, they don't hold silver.


----------



## DB008

Bron Suchecki said:


> It starts at Section 41 in Part 4, see my blog post on it and discussion of its implications http://goldchat.blogspot.com/2008/11/australian-gold-confiscation.html
> 
> My view is silver is not explicitly mentioned and I do not think it will be confiscated as the reason Govt wants gold is to use it to settle international transactions and it is impractical to transport silver around the world compared to gold. Central bankers hold gold, they don't hold silver.




So then the question becomes, "would a situation ever arise where something like this (Part 4, Section 41) would be acted upon by any current Government of Australia?"


----------



## Mr Z

It is just not probable IMO, especially when you consider that in the unlikely event they decide it is needed they could just mandate that the government gets first refusal on all domestic gold production. That would probably yield more than hassling the voting public.


----------



## Bron Suchecki

I agree with Mr Z, first step is just to put special tax on gold mine production, then mandate sale of mine gold to Govt and/or nationalisation. The amount of gold we sell domestically vs export is small and thus my view is that there just isn't any significant amount of privately held gold in Australia worth compuslorly acquiring.


----------



## explod

On silver it is well worth thinking about the bigger picture and the following sheets it home to me.



> That gold has been performing better than silver is, paradoxically, one of the best arguments for silver. At current prices, the dollar value of the world’s three billion ounces of gold bullion is more than $5 trillion, which towers over the value of the one billion oz of silver bullion ($32 billion) by almost 160 times. Yet this fact is largely unknown and vastly unappreciated. It takes roughly $7 billion monthly in new investment to absorb newly produced gold (above jewelry and other fabrication) and less than $400 million monthly to absorb all the net new silver available for investment. Even though silver investment demand has been lackluster recently, due to current rotten investor sentiment, that sentiment can turn on a dime. As a silver bull, a strong gold price is one of the strongest arguments for sharply higher silver prices. Given overall world financial conditions, it is very easy to imagine continued strong gold prices.




http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3014/tfmr-podcast-7-ted-butler

And with silver being so important in growing areas of industry and technoilogy, one day soon in my view the penny is going to hit in a big way.

More conservative forcasters say that silver will eventually revert back to its historical mean average of 15 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold.  In my view, based on its availability and the importance, the silver price in the years ahead will surpass the price of gold.

What do others believe ?


----------



## josjes

explod said:


> On silver it is well worth thinking about the bigger picture and the following sheets it home to me.
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3014/tfmr-podcast-7-ted-butler
> 
> And with silver being so important in growing areas of industry and technoilogy, one day soon in my view the penny is going to hit in a big way.
> 
> More conservative forcasters say that silver will eventually revert back to its historical mean average of 15 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold.  In my view, based on its availability and the importance, the silver price in the years ahead will surpass the price of gold.
> 
> What do others believe ?




We are in the thick of one of the worst Sovereign Crisis in history. 
Central Banks around the world hold Gold in their balance sheet NOT Silver.
Silver is more of Industrial metal than Monetary metal.

Therefore imo silver will underperform gold during the unfolding sovereign crisis.


----------



## drillinto

I have a question:
Is silver a bargain under 30 USD ?


----------



## explod

drillinto said:


> I have a question:
> Is silver a bargain under 30 USD ?




Yes, and if of course you can get it at that price.  Physical is getting very hard to come by of late and there is a growing disparity between the paper price and the physical metal.

And of course you have to weigh up within yourself that it is going to appreciate in value.

http://www.ebay.com.au/sch/i.html?_...+silver&_osacat=0&_trksid=p3286.c0.m270.l1313

I would never buy it via ebay myself but some of the prices are interesting against the current paper price.

If you want it check out Perth Mint, ABC Bullion and W Davis.


----------



## Bullion Money

explod said:


> Yes, and if of course you can get it at that price.  Physical is getting very hard to come by of late and there is a growing disparity between the paper price and the physical metal.
> 
> And of course you have to weigh up within yourself that it is going to appreciate in value.
> 
> http://www.ebay.com.au/sch/i.html?_...+silver&_osacat=0&_trksid=p3286.c0.m270.l1313
> 
> I would never buy it via ebay myself but some of the prices are interesting against the current paper price.
> 
> If you want it check out Perth Mint, ABC Bullion and W Davis.




Your could also check out your ASF resident dealer and get ASF discounts!

Bullion Money  http://www.bullionmoney.com.au


----------



## adamim1

I know its old news, but no one has mention Eric Sprotts potential purchase of 1.5 billion in silver. Anyone think he's going to go through with purchasing or that he can get that can of silver? If so, how do you think it will effect price?


----------



## adamim1

There was a huge amount of physical bought this week. 18 million ounces were taken out of the market between Eric Sprott and ZKB (Zurcher Kantonalbank).

I don't know whether its a coincidence that Silver made a break out last night up to $32. None of the other markets (besides the AUD/USD) really made any significant moves last night.


----------



## Trex123

adamim1 said:


> There was a huge amount of physical bought this week. 18 million ounces were taken out of the market between Eric Sprott and ZKB (Zurcher Kantonalbank).
> 
> I don't know whether its a coincidence that Silver made a break out last night up to $32. None of the other markets (besides the AUD/USD) really made any significant moves last night.




where do you find data on huge amount of physical bought this week?


----------



## iced earth

TA of Silver - 20 Jan 2012
===============================
As it was predicted in the previous post, Silver after breaking of the Neckline and pullback is going to reach the target of the Head and Shoulders around $33.00


----------



## Mr Z

Nothing on the PSLV website reflects that Sprott has actually started to purchase silver. PSLV stats have not jumped yet, the capital raising is underway but the reporting isn't suggesting that it has been competed.

The gross proceeds from the Offering will be US$303.60 million or US$349.14 million if the underwriters exercise in full the over-allotment option.

I think that Sprott is yet to start purchasing.

My thinking is that it has more to do with this...

CFTC Position Limits Rule Lawsuit Dismissed by U.S. Appeals Court in D.C.

I'd suggest that the definition that they intend to use for swap positions is now known but not official so there is now a period of time in which the parties foul of the new rules can get into line prior to the announcement. This could be a classic buy the rumor, sell the fact stuff. 

Pure speculation, but I really think that Sprott is yet to buy!

This could get very interesting, Sprott looks to be timing his move for maximum effect. If the last run up is anything to go by he looks to be a predatory long.... makes a change in silver eh?


----------



## adamim1

Got info from Ed steers daily update.

Apparently The PSLV stock has been updated on the website? I haven't checked for myself. They bought 9,258,000 ounces. This is in addition to the ZKB buying over 8,000,000 as well.


----------



## Mr Z

Hmmmmmm.....

I'm looking for some historical inventory data to confirm but I can't find it yet! Unlike SLV it looks like it is not published?!


----------



## adamim1

Well I he did buy last week, they just made $2 /ounce. Makes sense the buy why the price is at a low.


----------



## Logique

explod said:


> http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3014/tfmr-podcast-7-ted-butler
> ..In my view, based on its availability and the importance, the silver price in the years ahead will surpass the price of gold.
> What do others believe ?



Hi Explod. Hubert Moolman is with you, and provides some charts to back it up (on the assumption you are talking the % increase).

Higher Silver Prices Are Coming - By Hubert Moolman, Jan 18, 2012 -  http://www.kitco.com/ind/Moolman/jan182012.html 
"..Again, I see no evidence to suggest that anything we’ve seen so far was the end of the silver bull market, so I am expecting the latter (i.e. a very powerful upleg yet to unfold). 
The real power of this expected move is likely to be released only some time after price has surpassed the $50 level."

That's right, Moolman thinks $50 will be just a speed bump. Also I see the Gold:Silver price ratio has run up over 50 again.

I read this morning that (US bankrupt) Eastman Kodak have $300 mill of physical silver, bought in 2011: http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20120119/business/701199886/


----------



## DB008

Looks like Silver has bounced back out of it's dump and is nudging US$34 ounce.


----------



## drillinto

There are two silver funds among the TOP 10

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/2/23/most-overbought-etfs.html
***


----------



## Logique

Liking this recent run in silver, break above 35 provides hope that it might push on towards 40. Volume has been increasing. Thanks to Jim Wyckoff for the chart.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Logique said:


> Liking this recent run in silver, break above 35 provides hope that it might push on towards 40. Volume has been increasing.



A couple more days like last night will help heal the nasty wash out from March & Sep last year.

Not too sure about the claimed "rising volume though"? But then again If you are wanting a good run in silver I would be more happy with a "standard" volume run up to resistance. Very much like we have.


----------



## Logique

Thanks TH,
I'll post up the source chart - it is over a shorter time period than yours, hence it does exaggerate the volume histograms. Still doesn't explain the lack of the late Sept11 volume pulse in Wychoff's chart however.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ah! That volume profile is the result of that chart data not being set up properly. Futures expire every 1-3 months and roll to the next contract. Nymex for example list silver contracts out to Jan 2014 which you can now trade but obviously the action is always in the front months.

Silver contracts expire and roll to the next one in March, May, July, Sep And Dec. We have just rolled from the March to May contract. Your chart looks like a March Contract only. You can see as the Dec contract approaches expiry traders have swapped from trading Dec to trading the March contract. Where mine is a continuous one using data from just the most active contract for any period.


----------



## explod

Most argue that gold is not money, Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Benanke just recently and in particular made this clear to the US Senate Committee of Finance.

On silver there are many saying it is even further removed and its role will be purely industrial.    

To me the arguments on these basis mean little.  They both have intrinsic value.  They are both scarce and to a growing number there is sentimental value as a store of wealth and protection against both inflation and deflation.  And a point here, inflation includes everything that is going up, even the Stock Market rising is an inflationary factor.  Of course the systems bean counters will/do not include it and argue vehemently that this is not the case, but have a think about it. 

They are also both a very small part of the overall financial market, in fact a fraction of it.  Just a small amount of renewed interest to a finite resource amounts to a lot.

Silver gets used up industrially so there is in fact less of it above ground than gold.  It is becoming very sought after in medicines, phones, computers, alternative energy engines and solar panels just to name a few.

However a lot of very wealthy people around the globe are stockpiling huge amounts of the stuff too before the word gets out too much.  I did a few years back and payday will come.

One could go on and on but as I said on another thread, it is surely worth having a bit of a read up on.

And just one I picked up an hour ago for starters.   And will look for more over the evening between serves.  Just at the beer stage now.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...-crushes-every-asset-class-ytd/#ixzz1nisqdplg


----------



## Trex123

any comment where is silver heading next week?


----------



## explod

Trex123 said:


> any comment where is silver heading next week?




One can only guess, but on our current dollar situation here in Auz., and the dip in silver played out for the moment *I think*, will be buying some more physical this week.


----------



## Trex123

Resistance of silver?


----------



## explod

Trex123 said:


> Resistance of silver?




Do not follow your question, can you elaborate Trex?


----------



## Logique

Trex123 said:


> any comment where is silver heading next week?



It's only guesswork, but I expect it to consolidate in a tight range 34 - 35.


----------



## explod

> "JP Morgan Increases Registered Silver Inventories 500% OVERNIGHT
> Posted by The Doc on April 27, 2012 05:05
> 
> 
> Something BIG is going down.  First Blythe appeared on CNBC 2 weeks ago claiming that JP Morgan holds its metals positions on behalf of clients, then the CFTC moved 1 step closer to finally implementing position limits last week with their meeting discussing swaps, and today we have the kicker:
> 
> JP Morgan adjusted 5 million ounces of silver into dealer (registered) vaults Thursday, increasing their registered inventories 500% OVERNIGHT!!!"




http://www.silverdoctors.com/

They also discuss a 5 to 1 ratio to gold


----------



## CanOz

The weekly of the ETF, SLV.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Saw this yesterday, pretty good.

[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=dMY0uPMl-6I[/video]


----------



## reggiedunbar

Any stackers in here? What are you buying and when are you buying? I have American Eagles and am considering getting some Maple Leaves. They are the only silver coin that is .9999 and they have the highest face value at 5 CAD. They're also slightly cheaper than Eagles and Koalas.


----------



## explod

Picked this up on the GATA site

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/07/comex-silver-futures-skewed-short-potentially-explosive.html


----------



## factseeker

explod said:


> Picked this up on the GATA site
> 
> http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/07/comex-silver-futures-skewed-short-potentially-explosive.html




Thanks explod for the recommendation. I watched the entire video. It was one of the best silver price technical analysis that I have heard to date.


----------



## Joules MM1

worth reading, if only to figure the silver/gold ratio

http://www.zealllc.com/2012/silvund.htm

excerpt



> Before the stock panic, silver’s correlation with gold was very tight both visually and statistically.  Silver had a pre-panic r-square with gold of 94.7%.  This means nearly 95% of silver’s daily price action was statistically explainable by gold’s own!  Silver was truly a leveraged secondary play on the gold price, rallying when gold was strong and selling off when gold was weak.  Gold overwhelmingly drove silver.
> 
> But the stock panic’s extreme fear radically disrupted this historical relationship.  While gold plunged 27% between July and November 2008, silver plummeted 53%!  This dragged silver to a 34-month low, while gold only hit a 14-month low.  Silver was simply too low relative to gold, creating an incredible buying opportunity as I discussed just after the panic.  Silver would have to soar to reestablish this relationship.
> 
> Interestingly during the panic, silver’s r-square with gold plunged to 52.5%.  Only half of its daily price action was statistically explainable by gold’s own.  This brings up a second important point for silver traders to understand.  While gold is silver’s primary driver, the stock markets sometimes usurp it.  Major stock-market down days generate so much fear that it spills into silver and taints this hyper-speculative metal’s sentiment.






> The bottom line is silver is now quite undervalued relative to gold.  It has been losing ground compared to its primary driver for over a year now following a massive mini-mania spike.  But the selling in recent months has been excessive, driving silver too low relative to prevailing gold prices.  So silver is likely to outperform gold in this year’s upcoming strong season for the precious metals, which is due to start soon.


----------



## Joules MM1

*CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton* Comments on the *Silver Investigation*

By Christopher Barker 
August 6, 2012

excerp


> London's Financial Times dispatched some stunning news to silver investors awaiting the conclusion of a four-year investigation into allegations of silver price manipulation.
> 
> The article, entitled "Four-Year Silver Probe Set to be Dropped," reported that the investigation "looks increasingly likely to be dropped after US regulators failed to find enough evidence to support a legal case."




http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ssioner-bart-chilton-comments-on-the-sil.aspx


----------



## beatthemarket

A *bullish bottom wedge* may form on Aussie Silver. This signal indicates that the price may rise to the range of A$30.10/oz to A33.80/oz. A Bottom Wedge is considered a bullish signal, marking a possible reversal of the current downtrend. The pattern is formed during a downtrend and shows two trendlines converging. The technical event occurs when the price breaks upward out of the Wedge formation and closes above the upper, falling trendline, thereby confirming the pattern.

A *bullish weekly Moving Average Convergence/Divergence* (MACD) signal may form on Aussie Silver. This technical signal indicates that the recent medium to long-term directional downtrend has changed into a medium-term directional uptrend, in line with the long-term uptrend. MACD is a computation of the difference between two exponential moving averages of closing prices. This difference is charted over time, alongside a moving average of the difference. A bullish signal forms when the MACD computation crosses above the signal line


----------



## Trembling Hand

Beatthemarket you charge for that work?

And what is "Aussie Silver"?


----------



## Bushman

Trembling Hand said:


> Beatthemarket you charge for that work?
> 
> And what is "Aussie Silver"?




Link down the bottom is to a BBY web-site. So yes if you sign up as a BBY private wealth client.


----------



## sinner

Trembling Hand said:


> And what is "Aussie Silver"?




It's a FOREX pair code, XAG/AUD ...there's also ETPMAG on the ASX.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Silver Hoard Near Record as Hedge-Fund Bulls Recoil: Commodities*

 By Nicholas Larkin - Aug 14, 2012 10:32 PM GMT+1000

excerpt







> At a time when hedge funds are the least bullish on silver in almost four years, investors’ holdings are near a record, siding with the analysts predicting a rally as central banks move to bolster growth.
> 
> Speculators cut bets on higher prices by 72 percent since the end of February, mirroring changes in their copper wagers, which turned bearish in May, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Silver held in exchange-traded products climbed for three months and is now valued at $16.2 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Prices will average $33.02 an ounce in the fourth quarter, 18 percent more than now, the median of 13 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.






> More Bullish
> 
> Hedge funds may be getting more bullish, more than doubling their net-long position, or bet on higher prices, to 9,323 futures and options in the two weeks to Aug. 7, CFTC data show. That’s still 58 percent below the five-year average. Wagers fell to 2,888 contracts on June 26, the lowest since October 2008.
> 
> Options traders are divided.........


----------



## Joules MM1

i dont usually give hat-tips to private opinions.....exception here:


http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/...us-1-red-hot-rumor-14777#.UDYpcMKrr0A.twitter

excerpt


> I think silver could be poised for an explosive move higher.
> 
> This is happening at a time when, according to a Bloomberg story, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show that “Speculators cut bets on higher prices by 72% since the end of February, mirroring changes in their copper wagers, which turned bearish in May.”
> 
> But do you know what else is happening? The holdings in silver Exchange-Traded Funds are climbing higher and higher.
> 
> Specifically, according to recent reports, investors bought 797 metric tons of silver through silver-backed exchange-traded products this year and now hold 18,093 tons, equal to more than eight months of global mine output.


----------



## Joules MM1

> ....our particular interest is in the silver space, and that is where we see an elephant in the room that hasn’t made headlines yet.




*Silver Sector Shrinking*
Sean Rakhimov
|
Thursday, August 23rd




> Bolivia, of course, was the latest in the news with nationalization of.....






> Argentina...a direct quote from a news release dated July 2, 2012 by Geoff Burns, President & CEO of Pan American Silver commenting on the legislation proposed by the government of Chubut province of Argentina:
> 
> "This is an incredibly unfortunate development for the mining industry in the province of Chubut and in Argentina. Having made significant investments over the last two and a half years in work to prepare the world-class Navidad silver project for development, it is extremely disappointing that the government of Chubut would introduce this legislation without meaningful consultation with the mining industry. Since acquiring Navidad, we established a policy of open and honest communication with all levels of government as to our progress and plans and were surprised that we were not consulted on the economic effects that the proposed legislation would have on Navidad's development. I am convinced that it was the provincial government's intent with the new draft legislation, to define a path for the development of Navidad, not to render the project uneconomic. However, if the draft law is passed as submitted there can be no other choice currently than to stop investing further in the project".






> ....the silver sector is so small and the above mentioned countries collectively make up a big of chunk of it. According to CPM Group’s 2012 Silver Yearbook, the aforementioned countries are projected to produce some 170 Moz silver this year versus the anticipated total global silver production of 788 Moz. While at first glance that only makes up 21.6% of total annual mine supply, which in itself is significant, we submit that it represents an even greater percentage of “investible” silver production.




http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-sector-shrinking-5826


----------



## young-gun

Silver seems to be on it's way down, any predictions on where its headed? I'm personally hoping back below 30 or lower if possible to stock up.


----------



## Mr Z

~ 30 mebe ~ 28 but I don't think so at this stage.


----------



## young-gun

Silver still heading lower, hopefully get under 30 in the next couple of weeks, or maybe sooner?


----------



## Joules MM1

twitteristercated:



> willem middelkoop ‏@wmiddelkoop
> 
> 25% of silver demand because of new technologies since 2000. Each iPhone needs 0.25 gr of silver. #SilverSummit







> willem middelkoop ‏@wmiddelkoop
> 
> .. nearly 5 mln oz of silver withdrawn from a single COMEX depository in 3 days! 12% of the entire COMEX REGISERED SILVER INVENTORY 2-end
> Expand
> 4h willem middelkoop willem middelkoop ‏@wmiddelkoop
> 
> Sprott: 3.6mln oz silver withdrawal from COMEX. The physical silver drain continued Tuesday, as a massive 1.2 mln additional oz withdrawn 1




studious, eh.....


----------



## Joules MM1

Silver-price-to-increase-400pc-in-three-years

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...r-price-to-increase-400pc-in-three-years.html

and from my own pov

that article caught my eye especially given iTraders recent comments on the sever lack of physical supply or exchanges inablity to give a concise date of supply

interestingly the COT shows swaps dealers have moved from a 2 to 1 (flat) ratio of short positions on silver to a 1.5 to 1 ratio.....this is a big swing
my guess is that after all the energy of the central banks was withdrawn the swaps dealers saw that the money managers were 95% nett long and decided the MM's would be wrong
now, with the latest holding while equities have been on a sharp downswing in the US the swaps dealers are seeing a different ball game

I quipped about a technical Cup and Handle pattern a couple of weeks ago, but, all joking aside, with gold holding steady in the 1725
zone while the SPX is declining at speed, the ball game is different and that C&H pattern looks valid and will only fall apart if both gold and silver go back below recent hourlyy lows (31.70 silver)

in which case we are more likely to head below the triangle lows for gold, silver will follow, thus, the picture is very clear on a course of action on a daily pov:
short silver on break-out below 31.70 (not a retest, an actual impulsive break-down) and buy any break-out above 33.30 congestion zone

 yearly uptrend looks very robust....even if the economies hit the skids (sic) silver should ascend and any strength will make for positive industrial background demand


----------



## Joules MM1

looks like the major moves for the next few weeks is complete in silver (and it's cousin, almost, 1629/30 looks a better base) should get a reprieve from the 3 bears .....not so much warm porridge tho.....




still plenty of points in the bag for close-up traders....punters and investors are more likely to find the long side tricky and nail biting....it's a pick-yer-spots game for the next few weeks

edit: both metals failed what should have been standard Cup/Handle patterns too.....orthodox shapes imply major break-down technicals


----------



## young-gun

Joules MM1 said:


> looks like the major moves for the next few weeks is complete in silver (and it's cousin, almost, 1629/30 looks a better base) should get a reprieve from the 3 bears .....not so much warm porridge tho.....
> 
> View attachment 50054
> 
> 
> still plenty of points in the bag for close-up traders....punters and investors are more likely to find the long side tricky and nail biting....it's a pick-yer-spots game for the next few weeks
> 
> edit: both metals failed what should have been standard Cup/Handle patterns too.....orthodox shapes imply major break-down technicals




I hope they both head lower so I can stock up, been waiting for silver to head lower for a while.


----------



## explod

On ebay notice that 1 kilo bars are now up to 25% above spot.

This is what will gradually brake the paper trade, *supply* .

The only safe place is in holding physical.


----------



## young-gun

explod said:


> This is what will gradually brake the paper trade .




Looking forward to that day.


----------



## young-gun

Looking pretty quiet in here, is there any silver bugs still getting round? I hope the lack of interesting price action isn't deterring people.


----------



## CanOz

SLV, flag on the weekly...trading opp?


----------



## explod

young-gun said:


> Looking pretty quiet in here, is there any silver bugs still getting round? I hope the lack of interesting price action isn't deterring people.




Not on your life, in my view it is still the only game in town.

The supply side is critically short, world production is decreasing, the need increasing, 

just a matter of time.


----------



## young-gun

explod said:


> Not on your life, in my view it is still the only game in town.
> 
> The supply side is critically short, world production is decreasing, the need increasing,
> 
> just a matter of time.




The thing that gets me is why it hasn't already taken off. Everything I have read/watched indicates that there is currently less above ground silver than gold. Investor demand in the US is on its way up. I recently read china has just become a net importer of silver. As you say consumption of silver is increasing, and will only continue to do so as we dive further into the tech revolution.

Hope you're right and it is simply going to be a waiting game. Surely it won't go on for more than another year or two though.

Wish I had more cash for more bars.


----------



## FlyingFox

young-gun said:


> The thing that gets me is why it hasn't already taken off. Everything I have read/watched indicates that there is currently less above ground silver than gold. Investor demand in the US is on its way up. I recently read china has just become a net importer of silver. As you say consumption of silver is increasing, and will only continue to do so as we dive further into the tech revolution.
> 
> Hope you're right and it is simply going to be a waiting game. Surely it won't go on for more than another year or two though.
> 
> Wish I had more cash for more bars.




Probably because it is thought of primarily as an industrial metal rather than an investment one. Since silver coinage/currency stopped, it's perception as a store of wealth has waned. At least in India, silver was (is?) not converted as much as gold.When (If) this changes, the price will shoot up at the expense of industrial demand. 

Would be interested in what amount of "paper" silver is out there compared to the real thing? By some estimates it is ~100X for gold.


----------



## young-gun

FlyingFox said:


> Probably because it is thought of primarily as an industrial metal rather than an investment one. Since silver coinage/currency stopped, it's perception as a store of wealth has waned. At least in India, silver was (is?) not converted as much as gold.When (If) this changes, the price will shoot up at the expense of industrial demand.
> 
> Would be interested in what amount of "paper" silver is out there compared to the real thing? By some estimates it is ~100X for gold.




I don't know that anyone can say for sure. I think a lot of people that trade the paper market are aware that their trades are likely not back by physical, it's just another trade for them.

Any industry using silver will simply have to pay the price, and pass the cost on to consumers. I read somewhere that extracting and then re-using silver from electronic devices etc would run at a cost of over $1000 per ounce. Which is good news also(if true). There will be a run for silver(and gold). There will be a stage of solid gains, followed by the huge bubble hopefully.


----------



## FlyingFox

young-gun said:


> I don't know that anyone can say for sure. I think a lot of people that trade the paper market are aware that their trades are likely not back by physical, it's just another trade for them.




True. Except if your holding very long term...



young-gun said:


> Any industry using silver will simply have to pay the price, and pass the cost on to consumers.




True unless there is an alternative available. 



young-gun said:


> I read somewhere that extracting and then re-using silver from electronic devices etc would run at a cost of over $1000 per ounce. Which is good news also(if true). There will be a run for silver(and gold). There will be a stage of solid gains, followed by the huge bubble hopefully.




Not surprised at the elec costs. Sounds about right if you're doing this in a safe manner. Lol. Holding many bars are we : ?


----------



## explod

young-gun said:


> The thing that gets me is why it hasn't already taken off. Everything I have read/watched indicates that there is currently less above ground silver than gold. Investor demand in the US is on its way up. I recently read china has just become a net importer of silver. As you say consumption of silver is increasing, and will only continue to do so as we dive further into the tech revolution.
> 
> Hope you're right and it is simply going to be a waiting game. Surely it won't go on for more than another year or two though.
> 
> Wish I had more cash for more bars.




It is the very smart big money keeping the lid in silver whilst they accumulate the physical.  With a Chairperson of US regulator resigning this week, Nadler getting the boot from kitko, and the US mint holding back sales of silver coins because they cannot keep up with supply due to lack of physical your patience may soon be rewarded.


----------



## FlyingFox

explod said:


> It is the very smart big money keeping the lid in silver whilst they accumulate the physical.  With a Chairperson of US regulator resigning this week, Nadler getting the boot from kitko, and the US mint holding back sales of silver coins because they cannot keep up with supply due to lack of physical your patience may soon be rewarded.




Interesting. Might be time to get into silver and pick up a 5 kg bar or two.


----------



## young-gun

explod said:


> It is the very smart big money keeping the lid in silver whilst they accumulate the physical.  With a Chairperson of US regulator resigning this week, Nadler getting the boot from kitko, and the US mint holding back sales of silver coins because they cannot keep up with supply due to lack of physical your patience may soon be rewarded.




Explod, I read everywhere about the whole 'keeping a lid on it' idea, yet it still seems 'unproven', but still widely assumed. The CFTC launched their investigation and apparently came up with nothing. Although then everyone just said the CFTC is is corrupt and were either bribed or forced into dropping it. Do you think there is an element of wishful thinking from silver bugs and bulls?



FlyingFox said:


> True. Except if your holding very long term...
> 
> True unless there is an alternative available.
> 
> Not surprised at the elec costs. Sounds about right if you're doing this in a safe manner. Lol. Holding many bars are we : ?




I hope no one is holding gold ETF's for the long term thinking they are sitting on a right to bullion. I'm sure there are some though.

Silver is very unique, and irreplaceable in most instances. No other substance has the same conductivity, and low resistance is essential for a lot of it's current applications - if not all?

I'm sure that as silver climbs high enough some entrepreneur will find a cheaper way to extract silver from devices and panels etc, I'm not sure that silver would ever climb to that level in my life-time but here's hoping.

As for the bars I'm holding, I won't be content until I'm sitting on 50kg's of silver


----------



## CanOz

Here is an hourly view of the SI contract. After the failure of 32.5 we've had failures of 32.0 as well. That said, there is a value area between 32.28 and 31.57 forming, so price is being accepted in this area. I think we'd need to see a break of 32.28 and a retest for continuation. That could provide a lower risk entry into Silver. If that was successful then we could see a test of 32.73, 33.46, 33.86 and 34.43. These Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) could provide some resistance on the way up, but could be potential entry points for continuation if they test successfully and value is established higher.

Of course, there is a downside as well and a break of 31.0 could see this play out.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## young-gun

CanOz said:


> Here is an hourly view of the SI contract. After the failure of 32.5 we've had failures of 32.0 as well. That said, there is a value area between 32.28 and 31.57 forming, so price is being accepted in this area. I think we'd need to see a break of 32.28 and a retest for continuation. That could provide a lower risk entry into Silver. If that was successful then we could see a test of 32.73, 33.46, 33.86 and 34.43. These Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) could provide some resistance on the way up, but could be potential entry points for continuation if they test successfully and value is established higher.
> 
> Of course, there is a downside as well and a break of 31.0 could see this play out.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Thanks for the breakdown Canoz, I don't even know what I'm looking at when it comes to charts Are you expecting an upward move or more towards the downside in the short term?


----------



## explod

Unless you are paper trading the charts are useless and do not reflect the price being paid for physical as I posted on this thread some time back.

And as young gun just just pointed out, ETF's unless you are an expert short term trader, will be worthless when the calls come for physical delivery.


----------



## CanOz

young-gun said:


> Thanks for the breakdown Canoz, I don't even know what I'm looking at when it comes to charts Are you expecting an upward move or more towards the downside in the short term?




Well its clearly in a short term uptrend, but its at a decision point now. If value is considered higher then we can expect a break higher, simple as that. I don't use charts to predict what will happen, only what is most probable and where there could be a chance to get on board a longer term trade, with the lowest amount of risk. I would use the ETF for a longer term trade, and size my position according to my trading account.

I'm doing a chart for Platinum at the moment too.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

explod said:


> Unless you are paper trading the charts are useless and do not reflect the price being paid for physical as I posted on this thread some time back.
> 
> And as young gun just just pointed out, ETF's unless you are an expert short term trader, will be worthless when the calls come for physical delivery.




The prices that I am interested in are not what people are paying for physical metals Explod. I have no interest in buying physical metals and in fact i have no place to store it if i did. 

My discussion is based on the Futures contract and the ETF. I respect that others may want discuss buying physical metal, and perhaps you have a better way of showing the current market price for that, i don't.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## FlyingFox

young-gun said:


> Explod, I read everywhere about the whole 'keeping a lid on it' idea, yet it still seems 'unproven', but still widely assumed. The CFTC launched their investigation and apparently came up with nothing. Although then everyone just said the CFTC is is corrupt and were either bribed or forced into dropping it. Do you think there is an element of wishful thinking from silver bugs and bulls?




Don't know about the big smart money or conspiracies but governments have a good reason for keeping the price down. They don't want precious metals to be used a (pseudo? ) currency. This undermines paper currency and hampers printing efforts etc.



young-gun said:


> I hope no one is holding gold ETF's for the long term thinking they are sitting on a right to bullion. I'm sure there are some though.




I am sure there are many people out there that were sold on this with "it's as good as gold without the holding costs"



young-gun said:


> Silver is very unique, and irreplaceable in most instances. No other substance has the same conductivity, and low resistance is essential for a lot of it's current applications - if not all?




True. It is also used extensively for decorative purposes like silverware, jewellery. At different price points, the non-essential uses will diminish. 



young-gun said:


> I'm sure that as silver climbs high enough some entrepreneur will find a cheaper way to extract silver from devices and panels etc, I'm not sure that silver would ever climb to that level in my life-time but here's hoping.
> 
> As for the bars I'm holding, I won't be content until I'm sitting on 50kg's of silver




Fair enough.


----------



## young-gun

FlyingFox said:


> Don't know about the big smart money or conspiracies but governments have a good reason for keeping the price down. They don't want precious metals to be used a (pseudo? ) currency. This undermines paper currency and hampers printing efforts etc.



Yep, and central banks(fed is privately owned).




> I am sure there are many people out there that were sold on this with "it's as good as gold without the holding costs"




Unfortunately I think you're right, however that's only a good thing for physical buyers.





> True. It is also used extensively for decorative purposes like silverware, jewellery. At different price points, the non-essential uses will diminish.




Without fail I always forget that silver is used for the above.


----------



## cynic

Here's an amusing discourse on JPM and Benny Blankcheque's collusive influence on the silver market:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Gl47z2g2EvI


----------



## cbc1

Oz that is one ugly looking graph.

Mbey ok to day trade,  to many trend changes in the last 6 months for me.


----------



## FlyingFox

cynic said:


> Here's an amusing discourse on JPM and Benny Blankcheque's collusive influence on the silver market:
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Gl47z2g2EvI




That's priceless. Wonder how many gold coated tungsten bars are heading back to Deutschland?   :


----------



## tinhat

explod said:


> Not on your life, in my view it is still the only game in town.
> 
> The supply side is critically short, world production is decreasing, the need increasing,
> 
> just a matter of time.




and demand.


----------



## FlyingFox

young-gun said:


> *fed is privately owned*




Wow! Did not know this. How screwed up can they get? The printing of US currency is in the hands of a privately owned entity.....


----------



## notting

cynic said:


> http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Gl47z2g2EvI[/URL]



Just want to correct this terminology in the video.
It's the pigs that get slaughtered the sheep get trampled.


----------



## zac

FlyingFox said:


> Wow! Did not know this. How screwed up can they get? The printing of US currency is in the hands of a privately owned entity.....




The Central Banks of nearly all countries I beleive is independant of the government. ie RBA is yet it works in partnership with the Govt a lot better than the US fed and the RBA has accountabilities to the aussie govt yet US Fed isnt subject to audit, accountabilities etc as one would think.
So yeah from that point of view very screwed up.


----------



## explod

The east want our silver.  The more I learn the happier I am with holding physical silver.



> The Chinese are alive to the fact that escaped the silver bugs in the West, that you can derive a silver income from your pile of silver by covered short selling, even while retaining physical control of your silver hoard. THIS IS AN UNPRECEDENTED BONANZA IN THE HISTORY OF MONEY.




The entire article for those interested is well worth the read.

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...20&redirect=false&contributor=Antal+E.+Fekete


----------



## white_goodman

FlyingFox said:


> Wow! Did not know this. How screwed up can they get? The printing of US currency is in the hands of a privately owned entity.....




a privately owned entity whos governor is elected by the President... degrees of independence... its not ideal but better than congress having the control


----------



## young-gun

white_goodman said:


> a privately owned entity whos governor is elected by the President...l




haha come on WG. I'd say it's more of a....

"You have three choices this time round Mr P. You can pick Bernanke, Bernanke...orrrrr Bernanke. Sign here. Oh by the way he's in power for 14 years or until he resigns. You may as well sign this one too, it's for the next chairman following benny boy. Please see to it that we are left alone or else."


----------



## young-gun

explod said:


> The east want our silver.  The more I learn the happier I am with holding physical silver.
> 
> 
> 
> The entire article for those interested is well worth the read.
> 
> http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...20&redirect=false&contributor=Antal+E.+Fekete




The only thing I would question explod is the claim of a silver standard. I understand silver has been used in countless instances throughout the whole of history as a means of exchange, as well as gold. However with technology improving and advancing at a blistering pace, hence increasing demand for silver as an industrial metal, depleting it as we go, it makes more sense to me that they would try to implement a gold standard.


----------



## explod

young-gun said:


> The only thing I would question explod is the claim of a silver standard. I understand silver has been used in countless instances throughout the whole of history as a means of exchange, as well as gold. However with technology improving and advancing at a blistering pace, hence increasing demand for silver as an industrial metal, depleting it as we go, it makes more sense to me that they would try to implement a gold standard.




I agree with you on this, just forwarding the info on into the ring.

My only concept of silver is as an investment long term for me.  

And always qualify, physical in the hand only.


----------



## young-gun

explod said:


> My only concept of silver is as an investment long term for me.




May not be as long as you think depending on how quickly events unravel.


----------



## sreeve

Some nice sideways price action for silver in the last 2 years or so. anything under $28 has been a good buying point.




~ Scott


----------



## young-gun

So in all the gold excitement poor old silver, which has actually been flogged even harder I believe, has gone un-noticed? Is anyone stocking up on this low, from what I can see it hasn't been at these prices since late 2010.


----------



## CanOz

*Gold Losses Pale Beside Silver’s Two-Year Drop: Chart of the Day
2013-04-16 04:00:01.2 GMT*



> By David Wilson
> April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Gold’s plunge in the past two
> trading days came nowhere near delivering the kind of losses
> that investors in another precious metal, silver, endured the
> past two years.
> As the CHART OF THE DAY illustrates, silver for immediate
> delivery tumbled 53 percent from its April 2011 closing high of
> $48.44 an ounce through yesterday. Gold was higher throughout
> most of this period. The chart compares spot prices for the
> metals in the top panel.
> One ounce of gold was equivalent to 59.22 ounces of silver
> as of yesterday, as the bottom panel shows. The ratio rose from
> 31.7 ounces at silver’s peak two years ago and surpassed its
> 2012 high of 58.9 ounces, set in June.
> “Silver needs more of a push from investment demand and
> industrial demand than gold,” George Gero, a vice president and
> precious-metals strategist in New York for RBC Capital Markets,
> said yesterday in an interview. “Nobody’s really adding silver
> to their inventory.”
> Jewelry, silverware, coins and other investments accounted
> for 47 percent of demand in 2011, according to figures compiled
> by the Washington-based Silver Institute. The rest was used for
> consumer electronics, solar cells, batteries, photographic film
> and additional products.
> Silver tumbled 18 percent in the past two days, exceeding a
> 14 percent loss for gold. Yet the decline in silver was only the
> biggest since September 2011, according to data compiled by
> Bloomberg. Gold had its steepest slide since February 1983.
> 
> For Related News and Information:
> World silver statistics: WSII <GO>
> Precious metals prices and rates: MTL <GO>
> Commodity market top stories: TOP CMD <GO>
> Charts, graphs home page: CHART <GO>
> 
> --Editors: Jeff Sutherland, Michael P. Regan
> 
> To contact the reporter on this story:
> David Wilson in New York at +1-212-617-2248 or
> dwilson@bloomberg.net
> 
> To contact the editor responsible for this story:
> Chris Nagi at +1-212-617-2179 or
> chrisnagi@bloomberg.net


----------



## Trembling Hand

This chart actually looks very sick. Gold as nasty as the last few days have been doesn't look anywhere as damaged technically as Silver. Early 2011 is now looking like a blow-off top with the fast declines then slow retraces up not ever reaching old recent highs.


----------



## Mr Z

Silver does that, focus on gold, that will give you a better idea of where silver actually is. IMO there is no way they separate in any meaningful way, 2011 was a real anomaly.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> Silver does that, focus on gold, that will give you a better idea of where silver actually is. IMO there is no way they separate in any meaningful way, 2011 was a real anomaly.




Well seems like an easy tech call. Given the large amount of volume swapping hands here you would expect a good bounce but its been clearly making lower highs. Until such I time it makes a higher high of some sort I think thats called a down trend. 

If you follow squiggly lines that is.


----------



## pavilion103

In the last week I've had two people who don't know anything about the markets tell me to invest in silver. One of them said that all his friends were getting on board and all excited.

Either they have all become investing geniuses over night or they are looking to gamble a few dollars lol.

I don't follow silver closely but the chart doesn't look too flash. I told them IF they wanted to buy wait for a base to establish, a breakout and a retest. At least wait until it isn't trending down.

I'm no expert but just found it amusing how everyone is so confident about something they know nothing about.


----------



## explod

Silver has been a bit of a problem as there is less silver than gold.  It gets used industrially in growing directions too.  That is why the paper contracts for it are now 200ounces to 1ounce physical.  Anyone in silver ETF's will lose their shirts when the music stops.

So silver is speacial and has to be squashed as its break out when it comes in my view will be enourmous.  Gold as the canary in the cage on weakening paper money cannot have a huge jump in silver leading it up and away till all is set.

In one day late last week a whole years production was traded.

Roughly an ounce of physical silver to buy is reaching Aus$45 (If lining up in the growing ques u can get it) whilst the official paper Kirtco chart price is $28.00   So those who think it may be a bit of a joke ought to have another think in my humble view.

Rambling plod,........................yeh maybe.


----------



## zac

explod said:


> Anyone in silver ETF's will lose their shirts when the music stops.
> 
> .




What do you mean by that?


----------



## Trembling Hand

explod said:


> Silver has been a bit of a problem as there is less silver than gold.  It gets used industrially in growing directions too.  That is why the paper contracts for it are now 200ounces to 1ounce physical.  Anyone in silver ETF's will lose their shirts when the music stops.
> 
> So silver is speacial and has to be squashed as its break out when it comes in my view will be enourmous.  Gold as the canary in the cage on weakening paper money cannot have a huge jump in silver leading it up and away till all is set.
> 
> In one day late last week a whole years production was traded.
> 
> Roughly an ounce of physical silver to buy is reaching Aus$45 (If lining up in the growing ques u can get it) whilst the official paper Kirtco chart price is $28.00   So those who think it may be a bit of a joke ought to have another think in my humble view.
> 
> Rambling plod,........................yeh maybe.




Explod you have gone on with this rubbish for years. Every time I ask you to explain what the hell you mean when the open interest for the contract just about exactly equals one years production. Where is the problem? Or is it that you really have no idea what you are talking about?

WHAT DO YOU MEAN by quoting 1 days turnover of a contract? What has that got to do with anything?


----------



## skc

When you go to a physical silver / gold bullion dealer, what price do you pay?

1. The prevailing spot gold / silver price?

or 

2. Some other price as determined by the dealer?

I've never been to one of these joints so geniune question.


----------



## prawn_86

skc said:


> When you go to a physical silver / gold bullion dealer, what price do you pay?
> 
> 1. The prevailing spot gold / silver price?
> 
> or
> 
> 2. Some other price as determined by the dealer?
> 
> I've never been to one of these joints so geniune question.




A bit of both. In theory their prices should be based on a spread off the spot rate, although that spread has probably widened a lot with the recent volatility


----------



## pavilion103

Look at this one. Some heavy volume there, particularly today. Will be interesting to see if price consolidates now and forms a base or if it continues lower. It looks like there is some sort of support here.


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> Look at this one. Some heavy volume there, particularly today.




That data is wrong. Also Pav if you are going to use Vol analysis on futs you are going to have to learn how to deal with rollovers. On a daily chart I'm not sure how you will be able to do that.


----------



## Mr Z

prawn_86 said:


> A bit of both. In theory their prices should be based on a spread off the spot rate, although that spread has probably widened a lot with the recent volatility




It has widened with availability, the shelves are low on stock and premiums are up to buy and sell and waits are up on much of the product that is out of stock. Been heading that way with dip buying for two months, now it is off the Richter scale by all reports.

Spot plus whatever the market will stand is the general answer. e.g. ASE's can carry a big premium when 90% is almost at spot, you have to know about what you want. Bullion is best, the bigger the cheaper per oz with 1000oz bars being the cheapest.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh thats an ETF..... 

Disregard last post....


Though considering it seems to be way off as far as vol goes to the far far more liquid contract maybe it is useless.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> Spot plus whatever the market will stand is the general answer. e.g. ASE's can carry a big premium when 90% is almost at spot, you have to know about what you want. Bullion is best, the bigger the cheaper per oz with 1000oz bars being the cheapest.




Does it really matter how much is available in coins and small lots? All this talk about dudes lining up in corridors to buy a few coins to me means nothing. Thats not where the real $$ comes from. Its like a **** stock as it falls, PEN for example, the lower it gets the more the punters like it. Though it keeps going lower. I'd be interested if the Perth mint comes out as says they cannot supply LARGE orders.

Its all just part of the Gold Bugs spiel. You still need the price to be rising. Which it seems not to be. 









Not sure why I bother making this comment...................... I already know the answer....


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Does it really matter how much is available in coins and small lots? All this talk about dudes lining up in corridors to buy a few coins to me means nothing. Thats not where the real $$ comes from. Its like a **** stock as it falls, PEN for example, the lower it gets the more the punters like it. Though it keeps going lower. I'd be interested if the Perth mint comes out as says they cannot supply LARGE orders.
> 
> Its all just part of the Gold Bugs spiel. You still need the price to be rising. Which it seems not to be.:




In aggregate the small buyers do count for quite a bit and it is mainly the product that they buy that is short. It also depends what you call small, I'm hearing from dealers that routinely sell in the 1m to 10m range, yes that is small when you look at most other markets, but its not bad in PM's for private client physical buyers. In previous episodes like this the larger bars slowly go then you get down to the 1000oz bars in silver being the only product readily available. Perth Mint has run dry/low before, but really all it means is that demand has out stripped the rate of supply not that they can't get the metal. It is just the wait that make people nervous, silver has been out to 3 months before.... it is not a big supply chain in the scheme of things. Larger clients of the Perth Mint use Depositary Services, typically they don't take delivery so the off the shelf requirement is not there. These are the guys I deal with.


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh thats an ETF.....
> 
> Disregard last post....
> 
> 
> Though considering it seems to be way off as far as vol goes to the far far more liquid contract maybe it is useless.




What about the continuous contract aggregations you see. Are they reliable volume numbers in your experience?


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Its all just part of the Gold Bugs spiel. You still need the price to be rising. Which it seems not to be.
> 
> Not sure why I bother making this comment...................... I already know the answer....




Oh yeah.... and in the real world, beyond your screen, this type of buyer reaction has been a very reliable indicator of an approaching high or low. Now it ain't a high is it?

With respect TH, you seem to have taken the worst of what you can find with the PM crowd and applied it to the whole group. Take it easy mate, it is not all rubbish, just as much as it is not all true.

I know you didn't get the answer you expected.


----------



## Mr Z

I noted this in the gold thread, but it is a small silver mine.

They are closing out hedging positions for a profit.

http://www.alcyone.com.au/images/alc...aishooghip.pdf

...if it applies to one it applies to all, so you should see more of this activity.

TH wanted to see quantity in demand, well, here you have one source. For many of these guys it is now cheaper to go mining on the Comex and LBMA than in the pit. Many of them are required to deliver metal into these forward sales so it will not necessarily be restricted to paper activity. Mind you it will not matter much as far as price is concerned, when they turn buyer it will be hedged on the Comex regardless if it isn't directly done on the Comex.


----------



## Mr Z

*Just FYI...*

Tulving silver supply, scroll down.

Note the minimums, not a one coin at a time dealer but not big money granted.

Selling out of silver slowly.

http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html

Don't mistake that for a metal shortage issue, this is a supply chain issue, the supply chain simply cannot cope with the wild fluctuations in volume that investment demand can generate. The fact is that nobody is willing to step up manufacturing capability in response to demand until they see and believe that it will be sustained. Given the investment required that is logical.

As I said before it is just an indication of demand not a significant statement on metal availability per say. That is to say coins are coins, they need to be made there supply is not indicative of the raw material supply. At least in the short term, should this persist then maybe the story has changed.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr Z said:


> Oh yeah.... and in the real world, beyond your screen, this type of buyer reaction has been a very reliable indicator of an approaching high or low. Now it ain't a high is it?




Actually I'm surprise it hasn't already had a damn good bounce. I'll say if it doesn't kick on by Monday/Tuesday night its more likely that we will see another low print come end of next week. So it just may be a high.......


----------



## Mr Z

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually I'm surprise it hasn't already had a damn good bounce. I'll say if it doesn't kick on by Monday/Tuesday night its more likely that we will see another low print come end of next week. So it just may be a high.......





I am looking for a low in the 19 area, I don't think we have not got the low yet and it likely will not come until the first week or two of May! A high, now you are just being silly


----------



## explod

Based on a calculation of kilo bars on ebay the average bid for pysical silver per ounce is Aus$34.50

The paper spot price is Aus$22.60

As it is of interest to me personally, and for the benefit of my ASF friends, I intend to conduct this service each Sunday,,, free of charge.


----------



## CanOz

explod said:


> Based on a calculation of kilo bars on ebay the average bid for pysical silver per ounce is Aus$34.50
> 
> The paper spot price is Aus$22.60
> 
> As it is of interest to me personally, and for the benefit of my ASF friends, I intend to conduct this service each Sunday,,, free of charge.




Perhaps if you intend to use eBay as an approximation of an auction market, you should also give an idea how long bids stay alive for, you need to factor in TIME. An efficient market discovering a fair price should do slow and steady heavy volume at the fairest price. A price lower than a fair value price should do less volume (as buyers scramble to purchase at what they perceive to be an "unfair" value") and the inventory at that price should move quickly. Obviously, vise versa for a high price as sellers rush to unload inventory at a profit in what is perceived to be an unfair price.

The eBay exercise could prove to be an value discovery process, as it would provide an auction market for the physical at the "retail" level.

Perhaps you could track both gold and silver Explod?

In regards to the Comex silver price, you would not expect that the current price to necessarily be the fair value price after a move like we saw...the price should return to the mean to test that fair value within a reasonable period of time...According using a monthly & weekly VWAP we can attempt to visualize where that "value" area lies at the moment...for GC as well as SI.

Here are the monthly and weekly Volume Weighted Average Price Channels. The center of the channel is fair value according to THIS market. 

Let see if the market can test this price in the coming days/weeks. Price can be manipulated temporarily, but not permanently, just ask the Japanese...



CanOz


----------



## explod

Thanks for the ideas CanOz and take them onboard.

Looked at gold but could not find offers today.  I may also need to include samples from dealers.  I did notice that there was still a fairly large spread when the pirces were higher, from memory, spot 31 to 40 ebay.  Have thought for some time it could be worthwhile.  We will see.


----------



## FlyingFox

explod said:


> Based on a calculation of kilo bars on ebay the average bid for pysical silver per ounce is Aus$34.50
> 
> The paper spot price is Aus$22.60
> 
> As it is of interest to me personally, and for the benefit of my ASF friends, I intend to conduct this service each Sunday,,, free of charge.





I would prefer using the average quote from a set of bullion merchants. You can get a 1 kg bar for around the $25 mark not the $35.

The problem with ebay is that you have enough uneducated buyers to skew things and the whole auction mentality kicks in.


----------



## young-gun

Does anyone in here buy well above spot? Not for a bar of bullion, but for items like 1 oz canadian maple leafs, kookaburras 1oz coins, silver eagles, 1-2oz snake coins. The kookaburras and snakes seem available at aus bullion companies.

I have never understood why people would purchase these. Is it of the belief they would be easier to sell off instead of 66 rounds for example? If you were going to buy silver wouldn't you go for say a 5 or 10 oz bar and save on the purchase?

I was just looking online at abc bullion, they are flogging a 1 oz PAMP bar for 52.70, or you can buy a 2 oz snake coin for 59.50. Who the hell would buy the 1 oz PAMP bar? and why is there such varying price differences?

I personally buy in kilo bars as it seems to be the msot cost effective way, and is rarely much higher than spot from my dealer.


----------



## FlyingFox

young-gun said:


> Does anyone in here buy well above spot? Not for a bar of bullion, but for items like 1 oz canadian maple leafs, kookaburras 1oz coins, silver eagles, 1-2oz snake coins. The kookaburras and snakes seem available at aus bullion companies.
> 
> I have never understood why people would purchase these. Is it of the belief they would be easier to sell off instead of 66 rounds for example? If you were going to buy silver wouldn't you go for say a 5 or 10 oz bar and save on the purchase?
> 
> I was just looking online at abc bullion, they are flogging a 1 oz PAMP bar for 52.70, or you can buy a 2 oz snake coin for 59.50. Who the hell would buy the 1 oz PAMP bar? and why is there such varying price differences?
> 
> I personally buy in kilo bars as it seems to be the msot cost effective way, and is rarely much higher than spot from my dealer.





smaller denominations are easier to sell and keep I guess. Also easier to purchase. The big difference in price maybe due to factoring in service costs and minting cost. 

One thing I did notice the last time I was at a dealer was that gold or silver in metric denominations tended to be slightly cheaper than that in troy oz.


----------



## explod

FlyingFox said:


> I would prefer using the average quote from a set of bullion merchants. You can get a 1 kg bar for around the $25 mark not the $35.
> 
> The problem with ebay is that you have enough uneducated buyers to skew things and the whole auction mentality kicks in.




Rubbish on p/m's they are mostly experienced dealers selling, but not of late, have been following it for 10 years.

My understanding with the dealers is that unless you have long standing accounts or stand in large queues for long periods this is no longer practical.  The physical is just not there anymore, which is the point I am trying to get through.

You tell me where I can buy 20 x one kilo bars at open for business in the morning (and take delivery in the hand)near to spot, say AU$30 an ounce just to be fair on you?


----------



## FlyingFox

explod said:


> Rubbish on p/m's they are mostly experienced dealers selling, but not of late, have been following it for 10 years.
> 
> My understanding with the dealers is that unless you have long standing accounts or stand in large queues for long periods this is no longer practical.  The physical is just not there anymore, which is the point I am trying to get through.
> 
> You tell me where I can buy 20 x one kilo bars at open for business in the morning (and take delivery in the hand)near to spot, say AU$30 an ounce just to be fair on you?




Things might have changed in the month since but last time I bought some physical was about a month ago. Ordered online, paid cash and picked up the next morning. I bought from goldstackers in Melbourne.

Will they have 20 bars, don't know. At the moment they are quoting ~$780 per kilo. 

If you are buying such a large amount, get it form the perth mint and amortize the delivery cost. I would be surprised if the perth mint can't meet your order.


----------



## explod

FlyingFox said:


> Things might have changed in the month since but last time I bought some physical was about a month ago. Ordered online, paid cash and picked up the next morning. I bought from goldstackers in Melbourne.
> 
> Will they have 20 bars, don't know. At the moment they are quoting ~$780 per kilo.
> 
> If you are buying such a large amount, get it form the perth mint and amortize the delivery cost. I would be surprised if the perth mint can't meet your order.






Thanks for that, will report back.


----------



## FlyingFox

explod said:


> Thanks for that, will report back.




Not a prob. A lot of dealers that resell, may not have stock or are reluctant to sell due to price drops. Also if they are selling Pamp only they have to wait for overseas supply to arrive. perth mint dealers should have more stock. Just my thoughts, I might be wrong.


----------



## Mr Z

ebay lags....

1. Listing times
2. Unsophisticated sellers that don't hedge.

Dealers, the bigger the better are your best indication.

JMO


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually I'm surprise it hasn't already had a damn good bounce. I'll say if it doesn't kick on by Monday/Tuesday night its more likely that we will see another low print come end of next week. So it just may be a high.......




Silver aint looking too good.... 




Cannot wait to buy some more as it keeps falling..................


----------



## Country Lad

Trembling Hand said:


> Silver aint looking too good....




Unless you have SDI shares. 

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## young-gun

Trembling Hand said:


> Cannot wait to buy some more as it keeps falling..................




Cannot wait to buy some more as the PAPER price keeps falling


----------



## Ann

This chart for silver appears to have a very bearish Ascending Broadening Wedge (magaphone tilted upward). A very dangerous pattern which can have quite a nasty fall when and if it falls down out of the megaphone shape.

Over several months I watched the quarterly gold chart also forming this shape. The result was carnage for the gold price when it fell out of the megaphone shape. Here is a link to the gold chart just before it fell spectacularly. #9801 https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=491

Will this megaphone herald the same with silver's price as it did with gold? Let's see!

I am using a different chart as my normal chart does not show volume and volume plays a roll in the shape's definition which I have included on the chart.


----------



## Mr Z

$19.xx  ???


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Based on a calculation of kilo bars on ebay the average bid for pysical silver per ounce is Aus$34.50
> 
> The paper spot price is Aus$22.60
> 
> As it is of interest to me personally, and for the benefit of my ASF friends, I intend to conduct this service each Sunday,,, free of charge.




Sorry, a day late, busy moving back to the city, with the price drop not so worried anymore.

Larger sample this week of 7 kilos in total.  Average ebay AU$35.25oz

AU spot $23.47

Todays prices.  So spread about the same but chart is bullish so far.

This assesment only relates to pure silver bars, not coins.


----------



## explod

http://inteligenciafinancieraglobal.blogspot.mx/2013/04/explota-demanda-de-onzas-de-plata-en.html

The Mexicans are getting the idea too.

Increasing demand for a finite product tells me the only way is up.

In my readings (many sources, google can confirm) that because silver is being used industrially (no longer in photography) for mobile phones, solar panels, hospitals etc, there is less of it on surface than physical gold.  The amounts used in each item are miniscule so a large price hike will not effect the industrial costs to any great extent.


----------



## Ann

Mr Z said:


> $19.xx  ???




Looking at the monthly charts it appears to have support around the $19.50 level. Looking at the quarterly charts the support level doesn't cut in 'till $18. So as I read it, it suggests a range of support from $18 to $19.50.


----------



## Mr Z

It is silver, it will be where it is when gold bottoms.... at the end of the day it is not often she goes it alone. 

This is assuming that I am right and gold has not already bottom as most of the bug camp seem to have it!

Still plumbing for mid to late May, maybe sooner but ?!


----------



## explod

To me on the monthly (depending on close tonight) we will have breached support at about the US$28 level.

The quarterly we will not know till the end of June and support could well hold by that time, which by then would be about US$32.


----------



## Ann

explod said:


> To me on the monthly (depending on close tonight) we will have breached support at about the US$28 level.
> 
> The quarterly we will not know till the end of June and support could well hold by that time, which by then would be about US$32.




G'day Explod 

What Z and I are talking about is should Silver fail, which my charts are clearly indicating at the moment, the quoted prices are potential support levels after a fall.

The quarterly charts have well and truly breached the $32 level, $32 is now part of a resistance level. For the quarterlies we are waiting to see if the $28 support remains breached and becomes a resistance line or if it can clamber back above and remain a support line. I think highly unlikely by the current enormously bearish chart pattern I am seeing on the daily chart. If you missed it...here is a link. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&p=768921&viewfull=1#post768921

I have included a quarterly chart showing the quoted support and resistance and Explod's $32 level.


----------



## Ann

Close of April on the monthly chart shows silver failing to hold above the $28 support line and that level will now become a resistance line for future upward movement. The next major level of support is $20.


----------



## explod

n







Ann said:


> Close of April on the monthly chart shows silver failing to hold above the $28 support line and that level *will now become a resistance *line for future upward movement. The next major level of support is $20.




In this business I do have a problem with the word *will*.

I notice that your support and resistance levels are measured on the horizontal plane.  Since I became interested in charting in 1968 it did take some time to realise that there are many other lines to an overall guide to support and resistance levels, and to strength.  And as tech/a loves to remind us, volume/=sentiment at those junctures is paramount.

With your last candle the tail down is most often a sign of a reversal.

However we shall see.


----------



## Ann

explod said:


> In this business I do have a problem with the word *will*.




Not sure why you have a problem with the word 'will' Explod...once a price falls under an accepted support line, that line by its very nature becomes a resistance line, fact. This is not saying it will be impossible for a price to regain its position above the resistance and then return the level to support, simply saying it will become a resistance for as long as the price remains below a certain figure, in this instance $28.



explod said:


> I notice that your support and resistance levels are measured on the horizontal plane.  Since I became interested in charting in 1968 it did take some time to realise that there are many other lines to an overall guide to support and resistance levels, and to strength.  And as tech/a loves to remind us, volume/=sentiment at those junctures is paramount.




I have taken some time to realize there are more than horizontal support and resistance, in fact many many years of constant practice and refining my art of charting. Here is a link to a few of my charts featuring a range of support and resistance levels....even a couple of curvy lines of support! https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&p=715544&viewfull=1#post715544

The recent daily chart I am watching for silver has support and resistance lines for the chart shape of the very bearish upward tilting megaphone, neither line is horizontal and yes I do take volume into account as well. Link https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&p=768921&viewfull=1#post768921




explod said:


> With your last candle the tail down is most often a sign of a reversal.
> 
> However we shall see.




Many years ago I took a lot of time to study 'kangaroo tails' but eventually decided they were relatively unrealiable as a directional indicator.


----------



## CanOz

GOLD/Oil everything got hammered this arvo...we've broken balance to the downside in a big way this evening....


----------



## Ann

Ann said:


> This chart for silver appears to have a very bearish Ascending Broadening Wedge (magaphone tilted upward). A very dangerous pattern which can have quite a nasty fall when and if it falls down out of the megaphone shape.
> 
> Over several months I watched the quarterly gold chart also forming this shape. The result was carnage for the gold price when it fell out of the megaphone shape. Here is a link to the gold chart just before it fell spectacularly. #9801 https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=491
> 
> Will this megaphone herald the same with silver's price as it did with gold? Let's see!
> 
> I am using a different chart as my normal chart does not show volume and volume plays a roll in the shape's definition which I have included on the chart.




Silver is still holding within the bearish Megaphone shape but moving closer to the lower level support. This needs to be watched. Here is a link to the chart I posted for anyone interested. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&p=768921&viewfull=1#post768921


----------



## explod

Ann said:


> Not sure why you have a problem with the word 'will' Explod...once a price falls under an accepted support line, that line by its very nature becomes a resistance line, fact. This is not saying it will be impossible for a price to regain its position above the resistance and then return the level to support, simply saying it will become a resistance for as long as the price remains below a certain figure, in this instance $28.
> 
> 
> 
> I have taken some time to realize there are more than horizontal support and resistance, in fact many many years of constant practice and refining my art of charting. Here is a link to a few of my charts featuring a range of support and resistance levels....even a couple of curvy lines of support! https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&p=715544&viewfull=1#post715544
> 
> The recent daily chart I am watching for silver has support and resistance lines for the chart shape of the very bearish upward tilting megaphone, neither line is horizontal and yes I do take volume into account as well. Link https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&p=768921&viewfull=1#post768921
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Many years ago I took a lot of time to study 'kangaroo tails' but eventually decided they were relatively unrealiable as a directional indicator.




My own experience is that one can not take any particular indicator too seriously.  Kangaroo tails, as you describe are fairly reliable if looked at more as groups.  The following SLV weekly for the last 2 years when looked at overall does indicate changes of direction with some reliability in my eyes.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...alse&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=38&y=12

And as you say, the more minimal a chart the clearer the message.

Though we have a spinning top (slightly longer down though) between the outyer two for last three weeks, they indicate sufficient tails down for a possible change of direction to the upside.

The other indicator for me at this juncture is that the Commercials have never been so long p/m's since 2008.  The dominant shorts this time are the small speculators who in my view are very much effected by the news and negative sentiment.

There is also a good old addage that says, "sell in boom and buy in gloom".

We shall see.


----------



## Mr Z

ANY technical formation, oscillator or indicator only offers some probability of success. In the end you cannot use T/A without supporting risk management and expect any degree of success. The back office rules this game!


----------



## Ann

explod said:


> My own experience is that one can not take any particular indicator too seriously.  Kangaroo tails, as you describe are fairly reliable if looked at more as groups.  The following SLV weekly for the last 2 years when looked at overall does indicate changes of direction with some reliability in my eyes.
> 
> http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...alse&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=38&y=12
> 
> And as you say, the more minimal a chart the clearer the message.
> 
> Though we have a spinning top (slightly longer down though) between the outyer two for last three weeks, they indicate sufficient tails down for a possible change of direction to the upside.
> 
> There is also a good old addage that says, "sell in boom and buy in gloom".




The problem I have with candlesticks is one needs to wait for confirmation which is after the fact. I prefer to know what is happening before it actually happens. However if you have success with your choice of chart styles that is all that matters. 

Your BigChart weekly doesn't seem to agree with the shape on my chart or on the Stockcharts.com chart for the weekly. Stockcharts.com have good free charts. Unfortunately they don't have Australian stocks. The code for silver on the 'sharpchart' is $silver. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui 

In fact we are not in gloom. The US markets are hitting all time highs, and the US jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a four-year low of 7.5 percent. There is a massive surplus of oil which should put downward pressure on the POO which will benefit industry.....hardly gloomy news IMO! 



Mr Z said:


> ANY technical formation, oscillator or indicator only offers some probability of success. In the end you cannot use T/A without supporting risk management and expect any degree of success.



 Dead right Z, keep your stops up to date!  



Mr Z said:


> The back office rules this game!



 ...that works for me!


----------



## explod

I look at many charts and styles, for trend lines funnelling long term action I look at point and figure.

Agree that confirmation moves with candlesticks are the rules but I find rules do not adhere as much as we are promised.

And current surveys are finding doom in spite of the Dow etc.


----------



## CanOz

Silver is wound up like a top....


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Silver is wound up like a top....




Interesting. Consolidating triangle on declining volume.


----------



## CanOz

Another day of balance within balance....

I'm long 1 silver mini. I can add on a volume break higher, or i'll get stopped out for a small loss on a break lower and immediately short 1 contract if we break on volume.

CanOz


----------



## Mr Z

I think I would tend to lean short silver here... given that pattern in the USDX.


----------



## CanOz

Mr Z said:


> I think I would tend to lean short silver here... given that pattern in the USDX.




Yeah, there's been a bid on on the USD all day...I reckon we might fail high first though around 24.050...

We'll see...

CanOz


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Sorry, a day late, busy moving back to the city, with the price drop not so worried anymore.
> 
> Larger sample this week of 7 kilos in total.  Average ebay AU$35.25oz
> 
> AU spot $23.47
> 
> Todays prices.  So spread about the same but chart is bullish so far.
> 
> This assesment only relates to pure silver bars, not coins.




Spot this week AU$23.77  Ave ebay (pure silver, not coins) AU$34.66

Running pretty flat so far.


----------



## Ann

The POS looks as though it may have a bit of a tumble out of a bearish upward tilting megaphone chart shape. This chart was the daily at the close of last Friday.


----------



## howmanyru

With the AUD starting to fall, and a low silver price, is this the best time in a while to buy physical?????


----------



## Ann

howmanyru said:


> With the AUD starting to fall, and a low silver price, is this the best time in a while to buy physical?????




G'day Howmanyru,

Are you thinking of the 'Averaging Down' theory normally refered to for the stock market? http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedown.asp 

I doubt Silver is a good buy at the moment as Silver tends to ride in tandem with Gold. I can see gold having a short rally perhaps but now that Soros has come out and said gold is no longer a safe haven then it doesn't inspire me to see a whole lot of upward momentum for either metal. http://au.businessinsider.com/soros-gold-has-been-destroyed-as-a-safe-haven-2013-4 

Interesting to watch and see what happens.


----------



## john12

howmanyru said:


> With the AUD starting to fall, and a low silver price, is this the best time in a while to buy physical?????




nothings a good buy while price is still falling, i havent bought any silver in 2 years, and got stung with those, theres certainly value in holding the physical asset, but if you want to make profits based on spot price movements then now is a pretty sad, and nervous, time to be holding it


----------



## Ann

Silver has tipped out of the megaphone and its next stop is? Maybe $19.50 maybe $18.50? Let's see!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sheesh! What is it call when it makes lower lows and lower highs again?


----------



## Boggo

Trembling Hand said:


> Sheesh! What is it call when it makes lower lows and lower highs again?
> 
> View attachment 52296




A massive opportunity to go long because its a bargain at this price


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boggo said:


> A massive opportunity to go long because its a bargain at this price




Well with a bounce like that last night it certainly gives you a set up to trade.




Probably first good bar in a 6 months!


----------



## explod

Trembling Hand said:


> Sheesh! What is it call when it makes lower lows and lower highs again?




Just palin volatile,

risky

and IMV dodgy, only trust physical in ones own hand and one day trade it for spuds or rabbits.


----------



## drillinto

Silver's (SLV -0.6%) 9% plunge in the first minutes of trading overnight is being linked to...
Monday, May 20

Silver's (SLV -0.6%) 9% plunge in the first minutes of trading overnight is being linked to hawkish talk from Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari who warned the yen's (FXY +0.7%) fast decline may be hurting the economy. One fails to see the connection but dollar/yen did dive along with silver and Andrew Wilkinson suggests hedge funds short the yen were forced to raise cash by bailing on stale silver longs. 

Source >> http://seekingalpha.com/
*****


----------



## explod

> I gave up on silver price technical analysis about 5 years ago. It is a tool used by the Bad Guys to sucker people in for the slaughter. "They" can place the electronic price ANYWHERE they want to, at any time they want making timing the market impossible...unless you know what THEY are about to do.




From Bix Wier this morning.  And agree, if the paper market is meaningless then so too are the charts.


----------



## prawn_86

explod said:


> From Bix Wier this morning.  And agree, if the paper market is meaningless then so too are the charts.




LOL


----------



## Trembling Hand

prawn_86 said:


> LOL




Don't laugh this is serious news....................


:


----------



## prawn_86

If I bought silver 3 years ago and want to sell it today, what return would I have made, inclusive of dividends/yield?


----------



## Ann

prawn_86 said:


> If I bought silver 3 years ago and want to sell it today, what return would I have made, inclusive of dividends/yield?




On this day three years ago the closing price was 17.90.


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## sinner

prawn_86 said:


> If I bought silver 3 years ago and want to sell it today, what return would I have made, inclusive of dividends/yield?




~6.3%


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## prawn_86

sinner said:


> ~6.3%




Not much of a return for those holding silver be it physical or paper then is it


----------



## >Apocalypto<

prawn_86 said:


> Not much of a return for those holding silver be it physical or paper then is it




yeh but Pawn all those guys sold out on the 28/4/2011


----------



## sinner

prawn_86 said:


> Not much of a return for those holding silver be it physical or paper then is it




AUD has eaten into returns for lots of asset classes and their subcomponents. Investing in GSCI over the same timeframe would have returned ~-2%. Copper -6%. investing in a US 10Y bond ETF would have returned about the same as silver. All priced in AUD of course. 

Usually the benchmark for investments in FX land is a 0% return, so an XAGAUD trade after cost of carry is probably right on benchmark (with admittedly high volatility).


----------



## prawn_86

sinner said:


> AUD has eaten into returns for lots of asset classes and their subcomponents. Investing in GSCI over the same timeframe would have returned ~-2%. Copper -6%. investing in a US 10Y bond ETF would have returned about the same as silver. All priced in AUD of course.
> 
> Usually the benchmark for investments in FX land is a 0% return, so an XAGAUD trade after cost of carry is probably right on benchmark (with admittedly high volatility).




Yeh I don't doubt/deny any of that. I was just trying to prove in a round about way that holding physical in no way changes your return over if you were holding 'paper' silver, if you needed to sell that physical today.

Some posters here seem to imply that there is a (beneficial) spread holding actual bars but no dealer I know will pay above the spot price if I want to sell, maybe i'm looking in the wrong place


----------



## drillinto

Major Producers of Silver

http://www.mapsofworld.com/minerals/world-silver-producers.html


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Sheesh! What is it call when it makes lower lows and lower highs again?
> 
> View attachment 52296




And then lowweeeer lows,


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Um, a bargain?


----------



## PipSafe

Silver chart since the middle of 2011 till now was in a downtrend accompanied with price reformation that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 18.642.Right now price is above 5-day moving average in long term time frames such as monthly and weekly that shows a consistent uptrend in long period of time. In daily time frame with formation of Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern( Also Spining Top candlestick pattern) in previous candle, there is a warning for formation of a bottom price (need to be recorded) and vulnerability of downtrend.

As it is obvious in the picture below, Price has passed the descending trend line made of 6 peak prices warns about more ascending.In monthly time frame of this currency pair, there is a Morning Star candle stick pattern (With 2 stars) that warns about the potential for formation of a bottom price and ascending of the price for buyers.Generally the first warning for ascending of price is breaking of 21.710 resistance level.


----------



## PipSafe

Silver chart since the middle of 2011 till now was in a downtrend accompanied with price reformation that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 18.213.Right now price is above 5-day moving Daily and H4 time frames that show an uptrend during the next candles.By formation of Morning Star( With 2 Stars) candlestick pattern on 7,10,11 and 12th days in daily time frame, there is a warning(R=S) for the first failure of sellers in achieving lower prices and formation of a bottom price for increasing of the price in this area.

As it is obvious in the picture below, there is non-ideal AB=CD pattern between the top price of 22.173 and the bottom price of 20.589  that there is a potential for ceasing of price from D point of this pattern. Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area and divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the current bottom price and warns about ascending of price during the next candles. Generally until the price level of 20.589 is preserved, price will have the potential for reformation and ascending.


----------



## explod

It has been a great season for the stackers.

And the rigging cannot hold much longer.


----------



## PipSafe

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of Silver dated 2014.03.13, according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 21.769 and after that the price has started to decrease.Currently price in Weekly , daily and h4 time frames is under 5-day moving average that shows descending of price during the net candles.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern between the top price of 22.149 and the bottom price of 20.088 with ideal ratios of 76.4 to 127.2 that warns about descending of price from the D point of this pattern.

RSI indicator is in saturation sell area follows the bottom price of 20.088 and warns the possibility of ascend during the next candles.One of the important signs for descending is breaking of Down Trend line (made of 2 top prices). Given the current situation of price, the best confirmations for ascending and reformation of price is closing of bullish candle in Daily time frame and being of price above 5-day moving average in H4 time frame.


----------



## PipSafe

Silver chart has experienced a strong descending trend during the recent week that could record the bottom price of 18.857. One of the sellersÃ¢â‚¬™ targets was the round level of 19.000 that they were successful in reaching to it and the price was not able to descend more by reaching to this level.

As it is obvious in the picture below, price during the descending has touched the Up Trendline (made of 3 bottom prices) and also the round supportive level of 19.000 has created the hammer candlestick pattern. Closing of the bullish candle (Engulfing Pattern) after this pattern will confirm it and warns about ascending of price .Currently price in Daily and H4 time frames is above 5-day moving average that shows ascending of price during the next candles.RSI indicator in Daily time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle warns about ascending of price during the next candles .Generally until the mentioned bottom price is preserved, there is the potential for downtrend reformation.


----------



## Ann

I always looked on silver as the minor metal that got dragged behind gold. However I have been looking at the historic Silver chart coming from 1970 and I reckon there is a long term Cup & Handle pattern evolving which may offer a hint as to where precious metals are heading over the next couple of decades. The chart is set in Log scale. I did the swing trade calculations and feel the metal could go as high as $68 in time....and I do mean a long time, say over the next twenty years or so.  I make no guarantees and it is just for a bit of fun.


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## PipSafe

Silver was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent Days that sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 20.117.Currently in 4H time frame with formation of hammer candlestick pattern (the failure of sellers in reaching to the lower prices) price has been stopped from more descending and there is a possibility of formation of a bottom price and finally ascending of the price.
As it is obvious in the picture below, between the top price of 21.235 and bottom price of 20.117 there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ratios of 50 and 127.2 that warns the potential of ascending from the D point of this pattern.Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area in H4 time frame and in divergence mode with the price chart that warns about changing price direction during the next days. In case of ascending of the price, one of the buyers target will be the Down Trendline(made of 5 top prices ).

Silver Technical Analysis dated 2014.08.05


----------



## octain

brought in at 19.55 , Think if it hits 19.00 will double up. Seems to rebound of this limit. Love a good has bottomed out trade. Its where you make most of your money, anyone else on this ???


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## PipSafe

Silver was in a descending trend from the top price of 21.559 that could record the bottom price of 19.297. Right now this bottom price is fixed by the next ascending candles and is the next nearest supportive level. If this supportive level breaks , the price will have the potential of reaching to the important supportive level of 18.852.

as it is obvious in the picture below, the price in a Down channel during its descending trend that the Resistance level of this channel prevent it from a rise for several times and each time the price has descended.In daily time frame there is a  Inverted hammer candlestick pattern (also a Spinning top pattern) that shows the sellers retreat for reaching to the lower prices that it needs confirming with closing of an ascending candle.In case of ascending of the price, one of the buyers target will be the Down Trendline.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Silver is starting to look like one of those 2 bit penny stocks. Slowly bleeding the loyal followers of enthusiasm. 




Sitting on new four year lows. Gold looks to be about to follow?


----------



## sreeve

Hi all

My interpretation of the silver chart below (weekly, USD).

Silver recently broke support at $18.62 and hit below $16.92 support. Silver last consolidated strongly between these two levels between Sep 2009 - Aug 2010 and between Feb and Aug 2008, so there may be a bottom at current levels and some more sideways action? If not, then I'd expect at least $14.65 to hit next support level - a major support level that goes back to April 2006.




~ Scott


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## PipSafe

Silver had a strong and without reformation descending trend during the recent weeks and could record the bottom price of 16.665.Right now this price level is one of the important supportive levels in front of the price. According to the recent strong descending, price is in saturation sell area and there is the potential for ascending and price reformation.

According to the formed movements in the price chart, between the top price of 22.160 and the bottom price of 16.665 there is an none-ideal AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 78.6 and 161.8 that warns about changing price direction and price reformation. RSI indicator is in saturation sell area and confirms the D point of this pattern by the next cycle and warns about the potential of ascending of the price during the next days.Generally until the price level of 16.665 is preserved, the price has the potential for ascending and reformation. 

*Technical Analysis of Silver dated 2014.10.08 *


----------



## rimtas

With almost everyone on a bear side, it is no wonder that prices started to move against the herd.


----------



## zac

Some people are quick to treat silver like its toxic.
While it still may have some downside left, I note its decline (together with Gold) was rather drastic in line with the strength in the USD. With the USD taking a breather, so have the precious metals.

Given Silver is the poor cousin to Gold, it will tend to move the same direction as it. So the 1180 level on Gold will be critical I think to determine where Silver will go. 
A breach of 1180 would tend to suggest 1000 is in sight and who knows what that means for Silver.


----------



## PipSafe

Silver was in a strong and consistent descending trend during the recent month that sellers during this descending trend were successful in achieving the lowest price level of 15.042.In weekly time frame the previous week candle was closed as a Hammer candlestick pattern that shows the indecision for ascending or descending. If this pattern confirms, there will be the potential for changing price direction.


According to the formed movements in the chart, there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ideal ratios of 50 and 200 between top price of 25.087 and the bottom price of 15.042 that warns about changing price direction from the D point(Morning Star Candlestick Pattern) of this pattern.RSI indicator in daily time frame is in saturation sell area and also it is in divergence mode with the price chart that warns the potential for ascending of the price during the next candles. Generally until the price level of 15.042 is preserved, the price has the potential for ascending and reformation.


----------



## PipSafe

Technical Analysis of Silver dated 2015.01.13


Price since the end of 2011 till now was in strong and consistent downtrend with a little price reformation and Sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 14.401 .Price has formed a bottom price with reaching to the specified supportive levels in the picture below and it has stopped from more descend and has started a little ascend with shows exit of some sellers from their trades.


In Monthly time frame with formation of Spinning Top candlestick pattern in previous candle, there is a warning for formation of a bottom price (need to be recorded) and vulnerability of downtrend. As it is obvious in the picture below, there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ideal ratios of 0.382 and 2.42 between the bottom price of 14.401 and the top price of 49.689 that warns changing price direction from D point.


Stoch indicator is in saturation Sell area and confirms the harmonic D point and potential for ascending of the price. In case of ascending of the price, one of the buyers target will be the Down Trendline(made of 4 top prices). Generally according to the formed signs in this price chart, until the bottom price of 14.401 is preserved, there will be the potential for ascending and price reformation in this Metal.


----------



## PipSafe

Technical analysis of Silver dated 26.02.2015

Silver was in a descending trend from the top price of 18.45 that could record the bottom price of 16.07. Right now this bottom price is fixed by the next ascending candles and is the next nearest supportive level. If this supportive level breaks , the price will have the potential of reaching to the important supportive level of 16.00.

As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a harmonic Gartley pattern between the bottom price of 15.52 and the top price of 18.45 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern.Stoch indicator confirms the ascending trend in this time frame and warns its possibility.Currently the first sign for Sellers is breaking of the D point of harmonic pattern in the price chart.


----------



## daytradeprofit

*Silver forecast*

Silver price continues the downtrend, The price of precious metals has strengthened slightly due to certain weakness in the USD amid the publication of FOMC Minutes on Wednesday 
According to Thomson Reuters Release:" Total silver supply is forecast to fall to 1,014.4 Moz in 2015, down 3% from the previous year. This decline is expected to be driven by flat mine production, a 5% drop in scrap return, and net de-hedging of 12.6 Moz. Mine production is slated to total 867.2 Moz this year, up 0.3% from a year ago. This would be the weakest performance since 2002" 
The Chinese economy is posting weaker growth numbers, Keep in mind that China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of silver. Even at seven percent GDP growth, demand for silver from China will continue to be robust. On top of that, China recently joined the LMBA silver benchmark-setting process. As a result, China will be pretty motivated to protect and shore up the value of its currency by adding silver to its reserves.


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## aviarextrading

In my oppinion, during the USA trading session silver can have great entry points to work with.

As many are still in fear of the strategy which the FED are implementing. Silver might rise to at least 16$.


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## daytradeprofit

*Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?*

Here Come New Ideas For Silver 
Silver metal prices traded narrow bound since 1.7.016 –between 19.20 to 20.70 apx,if we will look closely at the charts we can see some interesting things : first, you can notice the pattern that was shown on the silver chart- flag pattern suggest break up will lead to 22.60-23.50 price area
While breakdown will lead to 17.60-16.20 price area


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## ducati916

Silver is now a buy for the bounce over the short-term [week-15days] for about a 20% move.

If you are a longer term 'holder', this would be an excellent entry point.

jog on
duc


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## ducati916

Still plenty of legs left in the silver trade.

jog on
duc


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## peter2

Good call on the bullish reversal in silver Duc.     You've earned the rewards.


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## ducati916

peter2 said:


> Good call on the bullish reversal in silver Duc.     You've earned the rewards.




Not yet.....

But the trade is still alive, no need to close it yet. I'm still bullish in the short-term.

jog on
duc


----------



## greggles

The silver price has been heading north over the last month. A break through $17.50 would be a positive sign.


----------



## Ann

*Silver Demand in India Set for 4-Year High on Farm Cash Payout*

_Silver will see a resurgence in demand this year from rural Indians spending cash handouts from the government designed to aid local economies ahead of the general election, according to Metals Focus Ltd.

Purchases are set to rise to about 6,590 tons, beating the 6,442 tons bought in 2018 and marking the best year since record consumption in 2015, Chirag Sheth, an analyst for the London-based research firm, said in an interview in Mumbai. The demand recovery will continue over the next few years “because of economic growth, higher income, and relatively low silver prices and penetration of sterling silver,” he said. More...
_
Here is a monthly chart, Silver has been traveling in a sideways channel for since 2014.


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## Chronos-Plutus

Electrification revolution is estimated to boost silver demand:

"But new technological developments favour silver, with the electrification of the vehicle fleet prompting a considerable boost for silver demand. The electrical and electronics sector is already benefiting from early changes and there is fresh upside for the use of solar technology in autos – the sector currently absorbs over 3,000 tonnes per annum of silver from a standing start less than ten years ago." (http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Alchemist/Alchemist_90/Alch90OConnell.pdf)


----------



## qldfrog

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Electrification revolution is estimated to boost silver demand:
> 
> "But new technological developments favour silver, with the electrification of the vehicle fleet prompting a considerable boost for silver demand. The electrical and electronics sector is already benefiting from early changes and there is fresh upside for the use of solar technology in autos – the sector currently absorbs over 3,000 tonnes per annum of silver from a standing start less than ten years ago." (http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Alchemist/Alchemist_90/Alch90OConnell.pdf)



Was highlighting the use of silver in solar panels and silver being labelled as a green energy metal in another thread


----------



## Beaches

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Electrification revolution is estimated to boost silver demand:
> 
> "But new technological developments favour silver, with the electrification of the vehicle fleet prompting a considerable boost for silver demand. The electrical and electronics sector is already benefiting from early changes and there is fresh upside for the use of solar technology in autos – the sector currently absorbs over 3,000 tonnes per annum of silver from a standing start less than ten years ago." (http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Alchemist/Alchemist_90/Alch90OConnell.pdf)





Chronos-Plutus said:


> Well EVs will also impact silver demand according to this chart:












I had read the article before as it is from 2018. The chart from the article does not appear to be showing more silver in electric vehicles. The increase appears to be from an increase in the number of cars being produced. The comments next to the chart even refer to an increase in silver in ICE vehicles.

_SILVER USAGE IN THE GLOBAL ICE FLEET IS EXPECTED TO GROW FROM 1,491 TONNES THIS YEAR TO ALMOST 1,800 TONNES IN 2025 AND TOWARDS 2,350 TONNES BY 2040_​
The same components that currently use silver in ICE vehicles will remain the same in electric vehicles. While there will be some increase in each vehicle (both ICE and electric) due to more circuit boards being added to vehicles, the majority of the increase could be expected to be from increased numbers of vehicles being produced.

Granted if the industry moves to the use of solar panels, there will be an increase, however that seems some way off yet. Otherwise I am unaware of any other significant increase in silver for an electric vehicle over an ICE vehicle. Though happy to be corrected.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

qldfrog said:


> Was highlighting the use of silver in solar panels and silver being labelled as a green energy metal in another thread




Silver has been in the shadows for decades, now to resurface.


Beaches said:


> I had read the article before as it is from 2018. The chart from the article does not appear to be showing more silver in electric vehicles. The increase appears to be from an increase in the number of cars being produced. The comments next to the chart even refer to an increase in silver in ICE vehicles.
> 
> _SILVER USAGE IN THE GLOBAL ICE FLEET IS EXPECTED TO GROW FROM 1,491 TONNES THIS YEAR TO ALMOST 1,800 TONNES IN 2025 AND TOWARDS 2,350 TONNES BY 2040_​
> The same components that currently use silver in ICE vehicles will remain the same in electric vehicles. While there will be some increase in each vehicle (both ICE and electric) due to more circuit boards being added to vehicles, the majority of the increase could be expected to be from increased numbers of vehicles being produced.
> 
> Granted if the industry moves to the use of solar panels, there will be an increase, however that seems some way off yet. Otherwise I am unaware of any other significant increase in silver for an electric vehicle over an ICE vehicle. Though happy to be corrected.




Solar panels on roof cars  :

"The Toyota Prius was the first model (2016) to employ a solar panel roof, to prevent overheating while parked – when a certain temperature is reached, a power supply is triggered to a fan. Since then, a small number of vehicles have been announced that use solar panels to deliver power into a battery, enhancing driving ranges but not supplying 100% of requirements. One such is on the horizon for next year but in extremely limited numbers." (http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Alchemist/Alchemist_90/Alch90OConnell.pdf)

Then there is this statement: 

"The implications for silver from the development of this technology stem from its importance in complex electronics and a host of safety features, as distinct from the solar cell aspect.
Combined usage in 2018 in HEVs and EVs is estimated at 123 tonnes, and is forecast to double by 2020 and to reach 450 tonnes in 2025. If the trajectory for 2040 proves accurate, then this sector of the auto industry could account for almost 2,200 tonnes of silver in that year. Automotive silver usage is thus expected to grow by an annual average of almost 4.8% per annum. By 2040, the industry could be absorbing over 4,500 tonnes of silver annually, up by almost 3,000 tonnes against today’s levels, a gain equivalent to just under 10% of current global demand."

(http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Alchemist/Alchemist_90/Alch90OConnell.pdf)


----------



## Beaches

As stated previously, the article is from 2018 and the adoption of solar panels still hasn't been embraced by the industry as a whole. My understanding is that the number of cars with panels is minuscule. I think it will be a while yet before solar panels are adopted by the industry as a whole.

None of my statements are meant to suggest that silver is not a good investment or that the price wont increase. I just don't see electric cars replacing ICE cars as a major contributing factor at the present time. Increases in production of the number of cars will however require more silver, regardless of whether the cars are ICE or electric.


----------



## tinhat

conversation. I have no friends other than silver. It's shiny.


----------



## tinhat

tinhat said:


> conversation. I have no friends other than silver. It's shiny.



Death to the rich.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Beaches said:


> As stated previously, the article is from 2018 and the adoption of solar panels still hasn't been embraced by the industry as a whole. My understanding is that the number of cars with panels is minuscule. I think it will be a while yet before solar panels are adopted by the industry as a whole.




Sure; I just think that as technology progresses with electric vehicles more silver will be used in circuitry, safety systems, control systems, batteries and so on.

Then there is the 5G network role out and silver (https://www.silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/5GSilver.pdf)


----------



## Dark1975

Hey guys, 
Just gauging and was curious to see what silver mining companies people have, 
I hold S32, SIL ca ( silver Crest mining) OZl and Bhp ,


----------



## Telamelo

Dark1975 said:


> Hey guys,
> Just gauging and was curious to see what silver mining companies people have,
> I hold S32, SIL ca ( silver Crest mining) OZl and Bhp ,



Hi Dark1975, 
I hold MKR (undervalued Gold producer with pretty good Silver resource as well) along with a speccie PMY.

Cheers tela


----------



## Telamelo

MKR flying +7.41% .. made fresh highs!


----------



## Dark1975

Telamelo said:


> Hi Dark1975,
> I hold MKR (undervalued Gold producer with pretty good Silver resource as well) along with a speccie PMY.
> 
> Cheers tela



Mkr looks promising in 2022 on the MTA boppy project, I will dive further in to the info on this stock but a good small cap stock on face value


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Dark1975 said:


> Hey guys,
> Just gauging and was curious to see what silver mining companies people have,
> I hold S32, SIL ca ( silver Crest mining) OZl and Bhp ,




I hold Myanmar Metals; not in production yet, in the development phase; here are a few brief interviews with John Lamb (CEO):

Watch this interview first, if you can, which is a few minutes:
https://videos.ctfassets.net/hnlfgs...73ca99ae02c6d0c9782/Myanmar_VO_2020-02-05.mp4


Then this interview, which is also a few minutes:


----------



## Dark1975

Dark1975 said:


> Mkr looks promising in 2022 on the MTA boppy project, I will dive further in to the info on this stock but a good small cap stock on face value



Thanks Telamelo for MKR bought at 36cents, i thought I'd share some important substantial shareholder purchase a couple days ago I noticed lance Rosenberg from tricom or parent company spinite pty Ltd,


----------



## explod

Silver is really starting to break out. A month back the gold/silver ratio was hitting 120 to one, now 70 to one.  

Stocks such as SLV, SLR, RVR, PMY, ARD and HRD are ones to monitor.

Silver is up almost 30% since July.

Love my silver coins and SVL


----------



## qldfrog

and the ETF ETPMAG  45% profit since 06/07 yes a month.. and will be more tonight
I bought more 23/07 thinking hum that is pushing a bit already up 16% yesterday
silver the Zoom of metals but with actual usage and profit


----------



## finicky

Go ETPMAG

All Data Monthly


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

I just read an article by FXSTREET suggesting that Silver is often correlated with Copper because of its industrial applications: "It does have a safe haven status and can track the movement of gold but the price action does often correlate with copper and iron ore." (https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silve...ahead-of-this-weeks-fomc-meeting-202009141837)

I decided to test this claim and found that Silver is ~2.8 times more correlated with Gold than Copper. I used the weekly close data over 5 years for the commodities. See below:


----------



## Dona Ferentes

writing in Hero Zedge

The SLV  ETF surged 11% late last week which came after Reddit user 'TheHappyHawaiian' posted the following thesis on buying silver noting that_* "the worlds biggest short squeeze is possible and we can make history."*_

'TheHappyHawaiian' cites two reasons to buy - The Short Squeeze and Fundamentals.



> *The short squeeze:*​Buy SLV shares (or PSLV shares) and SLV call options to force physical delivery of silver to the SLV vaults.
> The silver futures market has oscillated between having roughly 100-1 and 500-1 ratio of paper traded silver to physical silver, but lets call it 250-1 for now. This means that for every 250 ounces in open interest in the futures market, only 1 actually gets delivered. Most traders would rather settle with cash rather than take delivery of thousands of ounces of silver and have to figure out to store and transport it in the future.
> The people naked shorting silver via the futures markets are a couple of large banks and making them pay dearly for their over leveraged naked shorts would be incredible. It's not Melvin capital on the other side of this trade, its JP Morgan. *Time to get some payback for the bailouts and manipulation they've done for decades (look up silver manipulation fines that JPM has paid over the years).*
> The way the squeeze could occur is by forcing a much higher percentage of the futures contracts to actually deliver physical silver. There is very little silver in the COMEX vaults or available to actually be use to deliver, and if they have to start buying en masse on the open market they will drive the price massively higher. There is no way to magically create more physical silver in the world that is ready to be delivered. With a stock you can eventually just issue more shares if the price rises too much, but this simply isn't the case here. The futures market is kind of the wild west of the financial world. Real commodities are being traded, and if you are short, you literally have to deliver thousands of ounces of silver per contract if the holder on the other side demands it. If you remember oil going negative back in May, that was possible because futures are allowed to trade to their true value. They aren't halted and that's what will make this so fun when the true squeeze happens.
> Edit for more detail: let’s say there’s one futures seller who gets unlucky and gets the buyer who actually wants to take delivery. He doesn’t have the silver and realizes it’s all of a sudden damn difficult to find some physical silver. He throws up his hands and just goes long a matching number of futures contracts and will demand actual delivery on those. Problem solved because he has now matched the demanding buyer with a new seller. The issue is that the new seller has the same issue and does the exact same thing. This is how the cascade effect of a meltup occurs. All the naked shorts trying to offload their position to someone who actually has some silver. My goal is to ensure that I have the silver and won’t sell to them until silver is at a far higher price due to the desperation.
> The silver market is much larger than GME in terms of notional value, but there is very little physical silver actually readily available (think about the difference between total shares and the shares in the active float for a stock), and the paper silver trading hands in the futures market is hundreds of times larger than what is available. Thus when they are forced to actually deliver physical silver it will create a massive short squeeze where an absurd amount of silver will be sought after (to fulfill their contractually obligated delivery) with very little available to actually buy. They are naked shorting silver and will have to cover all at once and the float as a percentage of the total silver stock globally is truly miniscule.







> *The fundamentals:*​The current gold to silver ratio is 73-1. Meaning the price of gold per ounce is 73 times the price of silver. Naturally occurring silver is only 18.75 times as common as gold, so this ratio of 73-1 is quite high. Until the early 20th century, silver prices were pegged at a 15-1 ratio to gold in the US because this ratio was relatively known even then. In terms of current production, the ratio is even lower at 8-1. Meaning the world is only producing 8 ounces of silver for each newly produced ounce of gold.
> Global industry has been able to get away with producing so little new silver for so long because governments have dumped silver on the market for 80 years, but now their silver vaults are empty. At the end of WW2 government vaults globally contained 10 billion ounces of silver, but as we moved to fiat currency and away from precious metal backed currencies, the amount held by governments has decreased to only 0.24 billion ounces as they dumped their supply into the market. But this dumping is done now as their remaining supply is basically nil.
> This 0.24 billion ounces represents only 8% of the total supply of only 3 billion ounces stored as investment globally. This means that 92% of that gold is held privately by institutions and by millions of boomer gold and silver bugs who have been sitting on meager gains for decades. These boomers aren't going to sell no matter what because they see their silver cache as part of their doomsday prepper supplies. It's locked away in bunkers they built 500 miles from their house. Also, with silver at $23 an ounce currently, this means all of the worlds investment grade silver only has a total market cap of $70 billion. For comparison the investment grade gold in the world is worth roughly $6 trillion. This is because most of the silver produced each year actually gets used, as I have mentioned. $70 billion sounds like a lot, but we don’t have to buy all that much for the price to go up a lot.
> **If the squeeze happens, it would be like 40 years worth of their gains in 4 months **
> The reason that only 8 ounces of silver are produced for every 1 ounce of gold in today's world is because there aren't really any good naturally occurring silver deposits left in the world. Silver is more common than gold in the earth's crust, but it is spread very thin. Thus nearly every ounce of silver produces is actually a byproduct of mining for other metals such as gold or copper. This means that even as the silver price skyrockets, it wont be easy to increase the supply of silver being produced. Even if new mines were to be constructed, it could take years to come online.
> Finally, most of this newly created silver supply each year is used for productive purposes rather than kept for investment. It is used in electronics, solar panels, and jewelry for the most part. This demand wont go away if the silver price rises, so the short sellers will be trying to get their hands on a very small slice of newly minted silver. The solar market is also growing quickly and political pressure to increase solar and electric vehicles could provide more industrial demand.
> The other part of the story is the faster moving piece and that is the inflation and currency debasement fear portion. The government and the fed are printing money like crazy debasing the value of the dollar, so investors look for real assets like precious metals to hide out in, driving demand for silver. The $1.9 trillion stimulus passing in a month or two could be a good catalyst. All this money combined with the reopening of the economy could cause some solid inflation to occur, and once inflation starts it often feeds on itself.


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## explod

Dona Ferentes said:


> writing in Hero Zedge
> 
> The SLV  ETF surged 11% late last week which came after Reddit user 'TheHappyHawaiian' posted the following thesis on buying silver noting that_* "the worlds biggest short squeeze is possible and we can make history."*_
> 
> 'TheHappyHawaiian' cites two reasons to buy - The Short Squeeze and Fundamentals.



The ratio has dropped to 64/1 today. Silver is off to the races now.


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## rederob

explod said:


> The ratio has dropped to 64/1 today. Silver is off to the races now.



I have never really been a fan of the ratio, especially seeing that POG and silver have different price drivers.
Here's why:



Versus"



Nevertheless, as the reddit team have had some recent success in the markets, silver looks to be a short term (at least) outperform.
Longer term silver has abundant supply through byproduct credits, whereas gold barely meets demand.


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## noirua




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## noirua




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## DaveTrade

Noirua thanks for posting those two videos, they were really interesting. I'm posting a couple of charts that look at the Silver market through a different lens, I'm not suggesting this is the best way to view it but I find it useful.


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## DaveTrade

If your not familiar with the above indicator please see below;


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## peter2

Looks like silver is going down to test the support at 22.00 (triple bottom). ASX silver companies are not in demand atm.


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## frugal.rock

peter2 said:


> Looks like silver is going down to test the support at 22.00 (triple bottom). ASX silver companies are not in demand atm.



This too, will pass, for today it would seem.
Are we ever going to see a physical silver squeeze?

POS doing its best to climb out of the mud overnight.
4hour bars.


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## StockyGuy

Silver still stubbornly holding above 22 USD... currently 22.185, just up from 22.155, looks shaky.  I keep on asking myself at what price I'd be a buyer for long term ETF hold.  Problem is it still looks expensive to me, considering March last year prices in the 12ish USD area.


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## mullokintyre

Last Friday after the Aus market closed, in the Northern Hemisphere markets, both Gold and Silver were  traded into the red for about the fourth time in Four days. This morning before the market opened, both gold and silver were in the red further here in OZ. 
Hence, I fully expected that stocks mining both of these would continue their downward  trend.
The gold stocks followed expected behaviours, but were not marked down as much as I expected.
However, silver seemed a bit odd.
SVL, MKR  were marked up. ARD was the only silver play marked down.
I was fully expecting to be able to pick up[ both MKR and ARD at cheaper prices than my last sales.
Perhaps the players seem to think a low in silver is upon us.
Mick


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## Telamelo

Trade the Trend *weekly update plus Silver chart (from 6:10 onwards)


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## peter2

*Silver* has fallen to an important level ($22/oz). If it doesn't get support here then it's going down to $20/oz. I'd be very tempted to buy at $20/oz. I'm even a little tempted by $22. 



I might have a nibble at the silver ETF (*SLV*). The ASX silver stock that I'm watching is *IVR*.


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## Sean K

peter2 said:


> *Silver* has fallen to an important level ($22/oz). If it doesn't get support here then it's going down to $20/oz. I'd be very tempted to buy at $20/oz. I'm even a little tempted by $22.
> 
> View attachment 134083
> 
> I might have a nibble at the silver ETF (*SLV*). The ASX silver stock that I'm watching is *IVR*.




Agree. $18 would be a screaming buy. It almost doesn't matter where you get in at this stage if you have a 5 year horizon, IMO.


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## qldfrog

peter2 said:


> *Silver* has fallen to an important level ($22/oz). If it doesn't get support here then it's going down to $20/oz. I'd be very tempted to buy at $20/oz. I'm even a little tempted by $22.
> 
> View attachment 134083
> 
> I might have a nibble at the silver ETF (*SLV*). The ASX silver stock that I'm watching is *IVR*.



Have to say that for the last month, silver has ensure a daily overall loss: rain or shine: I am heavily exposed


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## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> Have to say that for the last month, silver has ensure a daily overall loss: rain or shine: I am heavily exposed




There's no hedge?


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## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> There's no hedge?



no, balanced with more long positions etc but no put or call play so yes it hurts.I usually do not hedge nor add Stop loss etc  for what I see as long term positions aka 6m or more, years position.silver hurts, and AGL did too until I exit with major loss when they posted their woke announcement


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## Joules MM1

CRB hangs onto (back into) its channel








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




...for now


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## DaveTrade

Sean K said:


> Agree. $18 would be a screaming buy. It almost doesn't matter where you get in at this stage if you have a 5 year horizon, IMO.



Sean if you want to buy at a discount for the long term then you could sell puts at your price.


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## qldfrog

DaveTrade said:


> Sean if you want to buy at a discount for the long term then you could sell puts at your price.



true


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## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> what I see as long term positions aka 6m or more, years




6m years is definitely a long term position.


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## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> 6m years is definitely a long term position.



Ok rephrase 6 months or years....


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## wayneL

As we know, or should know by now, silver and gold are the most manipulated markets on the planet... Espeeeecially silver.

Our old friends JPMorgan keep getting caught, keep (happily) paying the fines, and keep making a motzah.

But.... this makes Silver the most undervalued commodity Evah! It just makes it a waiting game.


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## qldfrog

wayneL said:


> As we know, or should know by now, silver and gold are the most manipulated markets on the planet... Espeeeecially silver.
> 
> Our old friends JPMorgan keep getting caught, keep (happily) paying the fines, and keep making a motzah.
> 
> But.... this makes Silver the most undervalued commodity Evah! It just makes it a waiting game.



My view as well, just hurting now


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