# BKN - Bradken Limited



## GreatPig (9 February 2007)

Can't find any thread for Bradken - surprised it hasn't been mentioned before. The new quiet achiever perhaps 

From around $2.10 to $9.75 in less than two years - not quite the performance of Paladin, but not too bad nevertheless.

While I first bought in at $2.33 back in June 05, unfortunately I haven't held all that time. Most recently bought in late October last year for $6.02 and now, 3 months odd later, am sitting on a 61.8% profit.

Still showing strong growth on good volume over the last few days, so hopefully more to come.

Cheers,
GP


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## drmb (9 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Nice chart! What do they do? Do you mind if I paste or link it it to a thread I started called Nice Charts? I put TCQ and IMD there but this also looks great.


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## reece55 (9 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

GreatPig
First, can I say that it is great to have someone review some different stocks on the ASX -  you have a habit of pointing out the beauties on the exchange and also give us fresh, non mining stocks to examine (even thought this one is a mining boom by product). 

This stock has done nothing but go vertical since October 06 - great pick up GP. I guess it never hurts to go with the companies that are servicing the mining boom and this one is a clear indicator at that. All I can say is keep holding till the trend finishes, because at the moment it is all blue sky. Barclays are now on the register and takeover rumors persist..... The move up is not likely to end yet....... Valuation however looks extremely stretched!

Cheers


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## mmmmining (9 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Still a mining related stock, you can not avoid mmmmining.....

Another comment, too risk to jump on this one now. It required very high growth rate to maintain the SP appreciation momentum. I bought it around $4 about a year ago.  I might just hold it without adding any further position.

I think it might be a good idea to approach another group of mining related companies with reasonable valuation, that is the equipment hiring companies, such as COA, BOL, and NHR, etc. They do have exposure to construction cycle as well. But just have a look at how much work in hand by LEI, DOW, MAH.... and growing.... 

It is a shame that Lucky Aussie land has the third world road network; and port facilities.


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## Halba (10 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

goodness what a crazy stock!!

is it getting ahead of itself?

a quick look at the valuation/mngmt suggests it aint. This stock's management looks first class and i suppose the market is taking a bet on US expansion = blue sky?


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## Kauri (10 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



			
				drmb said:
			
		

> Nice chart! What do they do? Do you mind if I paste or link it it to a thread I started called Nice Charts? I put TCQ and IMD there but this also looks great.




    Not sure how much they have expanded recently but they used to specialise in casting rail bogies, shovel/excavator bucket teeth, and a lot of cast components for ore handling/processing equipment. With the expansion and new mining coming on line they still have a lot of growth in new orders, and a reliable source of repeat business ( i.e amazing how quickly hardened bucket teeth wear/break). They have been in this business for many years and have very little competition.


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## michael_selway (11 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Not sure how much they have expanded recently but they used to specialise in casting rail bogies, shovel/excavator bucket teeth, and a lot of cast components for ore handling/processing equipment. With the expansion and new mining coming on line they still have a lot of growth in new orders, and a reliable source of repeat business ( i.e amazing how quickly hardened bucket teeth wear/break). They have been in this business for many years and have very little competition.




Hi do you know who their competitors are (if any)

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 32.3 47.5 53.8 59.4 
DPS 21.0 27.2 30.0 34.0 * 

thx

MS


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## Halba (11 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

50c eps, so should be 20 p/e if growing high, so thats $10


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## chris bartlett (13 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

dividend tomorrow of 14.5c


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## j4mesa (15 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

A big drop today...........

It seems to be a healthy retracement..............as long as it does not breach the support level of 8.8 IMO


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## coyotte (16 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Interesting this is also a TechTrader2 Stockfrom a few weeks ago.

Like to see that 8.82--9.04 Gap Filled before any move back UP.

GMMA's are still very strong.

ADX(18) with BBs have  been indicating a correction for the last 6 days.

I have the current trend line @ 8.75 min close for Fri 16th.


Cheers


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## coyotte (16 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Footnote :

If the gap is not filled by close Mon 19/2 , then the trend line will have to be breached 

Cheers


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## Halba (16 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

this will be back up today itself prolly


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## UraniumLover (24 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

What worries me about this one is Fund Managers like Invesco are pulling out as they are worried about slow down. This is taking a long term view.
Short term i don't see the mining sector slowing but with the danger of Fund selling it could put a dent in the share price.


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## reece55 (24 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



			
				UraniumLover said:
			
		

> What worries me about this one is Fund Managers like Invesco are pulling out as they are worried about slow down. This is taking a long term view.
> Short term i don't see the mining sector slowing but with the danger of Fund selling it could put a dent in the share price.




Uranium lover - they may not necessarily be getting out.... I know they have sold about 2% in the last little bit, but they may simply wish to reduce their exposure.....

and on the positive side, Barclays have taken an extra 2.5 % since Jan, so they obviously see further price appreciation here......

Cheers


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## rhen (24 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

IDL must not be overlooked here too.
Since a purchase at 25c in Dec 06, the share closed Friday at 38.5c
While you're researching, have a bopeep at its major customers.


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## UraniumLover (24 February 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> Still a mining related stock, you can not avoid mmmmining.....
> 
> Another comment, too risk to jump on this one now. It required very high growth rate to maintain the SP appreciation momentum. I bought it around $4 about a year ago.  I might just hold it without adding any further position.
> 
> ...





I attend to agree more with mmmmining on a first entry point situation. I prefer Stocks like NOD for first entry who don't only support the mining industry.  Fund Manager money should flow increasingly in that direction as more secure future growth.


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## UraniumLover (1 March 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Seems to have hit it's support levels at 8.50 and reached near it's bottom now. Don't think it will go down much further. Glad held off on this one until the 6000 point correction which was always on the cards before making my move on this one.


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## Halba (1 March 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I bought in near support.

Small amount will top up again under eight. This stock has better mngmt.


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## UraniumLover (1 March 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

If it's up by the end of trade tomorrow and the all ords is positive i may make a move.


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## UraniumLover (3 March 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Good to see BKN go up in this down slide of the all ords and bounce off 8.50 support levels. Very interesting to see our friends INVESCO Australia Ltd buying another 100 000 shares on 28 feb after reducing their exposure before the all ords correction. This is despite further falls in the all ords to possible 5500 support levels. Looks like futher declines Monday as well after seeing US market go down. May join you very soon on this one Haliba. Especially if PDN profits continue to erode.


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## Halba (3 March 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

This seems a pretty solid stock. I don't think Monday will batter it, the individual stock is very good.


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## UraniumLover (11 March 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> This seems a pretty solid stock. I don't think Monday will batter it, the individual stock is very good.



Agree. Seems strong around 8.50. Didn't stay too long below that. 
I'm happy with getting it at 8.40 so will hold with little stress. Should go 10 + with time I believe.


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## Halba (11 March 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

It's held up extremely well. This could be classed as a "defensive" stock - its going to do well even if markets correct, as its a key supplier in this resource boom which is going to last for a longggg time.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (15 March 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

It seems a little resilient to the downside. Nice Gap up today and has filled it. Is it going to close strongly?


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## Halba (15 March 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

This share has been performing strongly. There is nothing to indicate to the contrary. Dow can throw whatever it wants at it, it still does not go down.

Its highly leveraged to the China boom because it gains $$ every tonne of ore moved.


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## Dutchy3 (29 June 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I'm a buyer ... chart latter ... via CFD.

Performing well in what is overall a launguishing market


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## R0n1n (29 June 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

great to see this stock running.... I only came in yesterday.. Pity I picked up a small parcel. .. Lets hope it keeps running...


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## Dutchy3 (29 June 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Market Depth is 6 buyers for each seller .... no one that has bought this stock and not sold has lost any money .... so sellers are few and far between ...

Servicing the mining industry too ... one thing I do know is that when the resource sector is running consumables are not even looked at as a line item cost ... and far too hard to control


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## Dutchy3 (4 July 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Nice gap and reasonable day again today. New computer and screen so heres to see if the uploads still work


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## reece55 (4 July 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Dutchy3 said:


> Nice gap and reasonable day again today. New computer and screen so heres to see if the uploads still work




I'm with you Dutchy, the nice trend continues........

BKN shows no signs of slowing down, all the best to all longs here...

Cheers


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## drmb (18 July 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



reece55 said:


> I'm with you Dutchy, the nice trend continues........
> 
> BKN shows no signs of slowing down, all the best to all longs here...
> 
> Cheers




Share Quote as at 2:22 PM Sydney Time, Wednesday, 18 July 2007 BRADKEN LIMITED FPO    CommSec Margin Lending LVR: 60%  
Code Bid Offer Last Change* Open High Low Volume 
BKN 11.390 11.400 11.400 +0.280 11.350 11.480 11.230 280,333 

Seemed to get the staggers between Feb and mid-June but now seems to be reaching new high again today (on moderate vol) and on 2 or 3 of last 6 trading days. I happily hold in my SMSF


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## drmb (19 October 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Closed up on a red day 12.430 +0.51c (+11.9%) market seems to have like announcement on the 17th Oct _Bradken Ltd Acquires 75% of Cast Metal Services Pty Limited_ Now at all time high


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## nizar (19 October 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



drmb said:


> Closed up on a red day 12.430 +0.51c (+11.9%) market seems to have like announcement on the 17th Oct _Bradken Ltd Acquires 75% of Cast Metal Services Pty Limited_ Now at all time high




Im pretty sure it wasn't 11.9% but it was up nonetheless.
Continuation from the blue sky close yesterday.
Looks the goods.


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## drmb (19 October 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



nizar said:


> Im pretty sure it wasn't 11.9% but it was up nonetheless.
> Continuation from the blue sky close yesterday.
> Looks the goods.




Whoops, sorry! Was up +4.28% in the day. Maybe that 12% was the figure for the past 2-3 days? Divided by 12 (or 11) carry the 1, or 3 or ... uumm duh, back to the calculator. 

Yeh but still it was good to see and I happilly hold in SMSF,


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## michael_selway (19 October 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



drmb said:


> Whoops, sorry! Was up +4.28% in the day. Maybe that 12% was the figure for the past 2-3 days? Divided by 12 (or 11) carry the 1, or 3 or ... uumm duh, back to the calculator.
> 
> Yeh but still it was good to see and I happilly hold in SMSF,




Yeah its not bad

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 45.8 59.5 69.6 76.7 
DPS 31.5 40.0 46.0 53.0 *

thx

MS


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## drmb (30 October 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Lift that game BKN, tote that barge, lift that bale!! 

Oh, it did again! Love it, on another red day market shows confidence in this mining support stock, closed on day's high 14.35 up 85c (+6.3%). However, low volumes - shows tightly held atm? 

RSI >80, MACD pointing skywards. 

BKN is manufacturer and supplier of consumable parts, equipment and refurbishment and maintenance services to resources and rail freight industries. Nick Greiner (former premier of someeasternstate) is Chairman.


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## drmb (1 November 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Up again today, over $15 and up more than 3% this morning. Somehow the market seems to have decided this is  good thing, but low volumes and looking a little parabolic are the negatives

at 11am today 15.220 15.260 15.190 0.510 3.47 14.810 15.250 14.770 85,754 
Ho hum, up about 40-50% in 6 weeks, but seems people regard it as a boring old blue chip that pays divies! Thanks Great Pig for putting me on to this  got any more like this???


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## nizar (1 November 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



drmb said:


> Up again today, over $15 and up more than 3% this morning. Somehow the market seems to have decided this is  good thing, but low volumes and looking a little parabolic are the negatives
> 
> at 11am today 15.220 15.260 15.190 0.510 3.47 14.810 15.250 14.770 85,754
> Ho hum, up about 40-50% in 6 weeks, but seems people regard it as a boring old blue chip that pays divies! Thanks Great Pig for putting me on to this  got any more like this???




Yes its been a good performer for me as well.
Up over 30% in the 3 weeks since i bought it.

But be careful of posts like this they can be considered as ramping since you havent got anything of substance in your post.

Well my other big winner so far is MIN. Its not a blue chip, but it does pay dividends, and because the top 5 shareholders hold 80% of the stock, it doenst take much to make it run.


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## michael_selway (1 November 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



nizar said:


> Yes its been a good performer for me as well.
> Up over 30% in the 3 weeks since i bought it.
> 
> But be careful of posts like this they can be considered as ramping since you havent got anything of substance in your post.
> ...




Hm both companies pretty expensive!

ANy risks u think with these companies Nizar?

*BKN - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 45.8 59.5 70.4 76.7 
DPS 31.5 40.0 46.0 53.0 

MIN - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 16.9 24.1 25.5 28.7 
DPS 9.5 11.8 13.5 14.8 *

thx

MS


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## nizar (1 November 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



michael_selway said:


> Hm both companies pretty expensive!
> 
> ANy risks u think with these companies Nizar?
> 
> ...




Michael,

I can see you havent changed your style.
Still posting earnings up like you always used to.

Forunately or otherwise, My style has changed markedly over this time.

No longer do I look at company earnings, or anything at all what the company does. I ONLY look at the TREND of the SHARE PRICE.

If its going up, and it triggers an entry (there are 4 filters in my entry trigger) then i buy it and KEEP HOLDING it until it hits my trailing exit. My trailing exit increases as the price increases to lock in increasing levels of profit.

But how do I sleep at night not knowing what my company even does?

Well I can take comfort in knowing that Im trading a system that has been WELL TESTED.

Why stick to a trading plan if you don't know even whether the plan is inherently profitable?

*So I dont trade according to how I feel or what i think.
But rather -- using I system I KNOW has worked in the past and has a HIGH PROBABILITY of working in the future.*

Any risks with these companies?
I cant answer that because I dont know the specific companies.

BUT I can tell you this. Any investment in anything carries risk. The trick is quantifying and managing that risk.


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## michael_selway (5 November 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



nizar said:


> Michael,
> 
> I can see you havent changed your style.
> Still posting earnings up like you always used to.
> ...




Hi Nizar, would you have been stopped out today?

If not what price?

thx

MS

"Bradken (BKN) is one of the leading manufacturers and suppliers of consumable parts, capital equipment and associated refurbishment and maintenance services to the Australian resources and rail freight industries. BKN has 13 manufacturing facilities across Australia and New Zealand with diverse capabilities."


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## nizar (5 November 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



michael_selway said:


> Hi Nizar, would you have been stopped out today?
> 
> If not what price?
> 
> ...




Hi Michael,

Have a look at my blog, I have the chart posted its the second one.
The stop is at $12.74.

But bear in mind my system is weekly. So if the weekly CLOSE is below my stop, then i will exit the next day.

You're thinking damn $12.74 thats alot of profit giveback.
And thats true, but you have to be willing to give back open profit if you want to ride the longterm trend. Thats the nature of trend following systems and why they are so hard to trade.


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## UraniumLover (9 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

this share has been a no brainer as well as other shares which are supporting the mining industry. Fundamentals are very strong as long as emerging markets like China and India buy our resources ..
 so am not surprised it has been going up since i bought it last year .


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## clowboy (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Ouch,

Not much good having a stop today?  Or do you have garunteed stops even if it gaps down past your stop?


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## michael_selway (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



nizar said:


> Hi Michael,
> 
> Have a look at my blog, I have the chart posted its the second one.
> The stop is at $12.74.
> ...




Hi Nizar, did the stop work for your today?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 45.8 62.9 74.8 86.5 
DPS 31.5 41.0 47.5 49.0 *



> For immediate release
> Thursday, 13 December 2007
> EARNINGS GUIDANCE
> Bradken advises that results generated after the first quarter show profit growth below market expectation and
> ...


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## Julia (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

That's the biggest drop of any of my shares ever.  Unlikely to make any sort of quick recovery either.

Nizar, I'd also be interested to know if you were still holding how you fared today?


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## Prospector (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Ouch - this has been my biggest loser ever - $13,000 down in 1 day!  Still up on the price I bought in at, but it had been travelling so well of late.  How can they not get the expected gains from mining - the whole damn country is mining.  Can you tell I am  :

Hey Julia, we are in sync - in both losses and the timing of our posts!


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## UraniumLover (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

well they say some one has to lose money for others to gain .
I will be surprised if it goes below 9.00 . Long term think will go above this level as it's servicing the expaning mining industry. May pick some up around 9 level. Boy , what a massacre today ..


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## tronic72 (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



UraniumLover said:


> well they say some one has to lose money for others to gain .
> I will be surprised if it goes below 9.00 . Long term think will go above this level as it's servicing the expaning mining industry. May pick some up around 9 level. Boy , what a massacre today ..




Anyone know which institution sold their holding today? Haven't see na drop like that for a while. Turbulent times we are trading in.


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## GreatPig (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Sheesh... bad luck to all you holders.

What surprises me most though is that I didn't buy this one yesterday...

GP


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## nikkothescorpio (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



GreatPig said:


> Sheesh... bad luck to all you holders.
> 
> What surprises me most though is that I didn't buy this one yesterday...
> 
> GP




Nice call GP - I'm a bit like that - but I generally do far better snubbing my nose at something and then watching it shoot off much higher. eg Just bought AED a few days ago at $4.00 and then got out when it looked downward bound at $3.67....an of course as soon as the market heard I'd sold the elastic was cut and it snapped back up to the near $6 levels now!

When I tell the wife she is like, well why did you sell!

haha anyway grabbed some of these at $9.01....next stop $8?

Nah - looks fundamentally good co - high PE and current environment I guess meant it was going to be hit hard on the downgrade.

I mean really - is it 40% less of the company it was before hand?  Of course not.


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## Julia (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Prospector said:


> Ouch - this has been my biggest loser ever - $13,000 down in 1 day!  Still up on the price I bought in at, but it had been travelling so well of late.  How can they not get the expected gains from mining - the whole damn country is mining.  Can you tell I am  :
> 
> Hey Julia, we are in sync - in both losses and the timing of our posts!



Hi Prospector, you obviously have a few more of BKN than I.  So that's the bad bit for you.  But, you were smart enough to buy earlier.  I only bought this one a couple of months ago so I'm well in the red today.  Still a long term hold for me unless they come out with anything to the contrary.

GP, yesterday was your lucky day, huh!


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## Prospector (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Julia said:


> Hi Prospector, you obviously have a few more of BKN than I.




Had Julia, sold them in disgust!  Maybe $1000 profit instead of $14,000!



Julia said:


> But, you were smart enough to buy earlier.




Ah, but not smart enough to sell them yesterday.  Who would have thought though.  There must be some real issues there if they havent capitalised on the mining boom though - crikeys, every other man and his dog has!


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## grace (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I've bought some of these today by selling a dog, so hope I haven't sold a dog to buy another dog!  
I personally think they have a good future, for this mining cycle.


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## reece55 (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

What a move down today, still it overshot it's fundamentals by a long shot....

For those looking at buying in now, here is a question for yourself...

Would you buy a business at 19x earnings with a flat to negative profit outlook?

Because my answer would be a definite no.... 

Cheers


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## nizar (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Michael, Julia,

My system is based on weekly timeframes, and my trailing stop is currently at $12.74.

So if it closes the week below $12.74, then I will sell sometime during next week.

Its a pity to have to close this trade at a loss, being one of my biggest winners in terms of open profit, but on the wider scheme of things, its just another trade.


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## michael_selway (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



grace said:


> I've bought some of these today by selling a dog, so hope I haven't sold a dog to buy another dog!
> I personally think they have a good future, for this mining cycle.




dog eat dog? 

btw what dog did u sell today?

thx

MS

http://news.smh.com.au/bradken-share-price-plunges-40/20071213-1gto.html


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## grace (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



michael_selway said:


> dog eat dog?
> 
> btw what dog did u sell today?
> 
> ...



To finance this buy I sold some of my NAV holdings (I have way too many and that was making me nervous - they have been trending down - although my avge buy price was 50c - done quite well - shouldn't call them a dog I guess.  IMO they are more speculative in nature than BKN, but only time will tell).
What does btw stand for?  I am newish here.


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## insider (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Did anybody short this stock using Contract For Differences? You would've made a killing today that's for sure...


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## lbradman (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Wow what a drop but drops like that make me remember the old saying "Buy when theres blood on the streets". So I did... at 9.70. Heres hoping for a rebound tomorrow. fingers crossed.


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## Miner (13 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



grace said:


> To finance this buy I sold some of my NAV holdings (I have way too many and that was making me nervous - they have been trending down - although my avge buy price was 50c - done quite well - shouldn't call them a dog I guess.  IMO they are more speculative in nature than BKN, but only time will tell).
> What does btw stand for?  I am newish here.




BTW stands for By the Way. There are many jargons in this site.
BTW I read one posting about flat to negative prospective for BKN.
If I go back to presentation in AGM (always rosy) then real issues are lack of prgress at client side in rail. There was a warning in forecasting that to gear up warning they need more orders. Ironically without order BKN has also decided to expand Adelaide Foundry. That is more capital cost and depreciation costs - lower value of shares tomorrow.

Regards


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## Prospector (14 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Miner said:


> Ironically without order BKN has also decided to expand Adelaide Foundry. That is more capital cost and depreciation costs - lower value of shares tomorrow




That has been talked about for some time in Adelaide, so no new news.  The word was the State Labor Govt didnt agree to the expansion until after the Federal Election because most people are against it - it is in the middle of Adelaide.  And now the Labor Federal Member (Kate Ellis) has slammed her local pollies because it is in her electorate.

Funny thing is, well, not funny really, was I heard about the expansion yesterday morning on the radio while in the car - and thought that was good news for BKN.  I hadnt logged on to my Trading Account at that time.  By the time I got home I saw that BKn had 'lost' me so many thousands, so sold them in disgust.  Oh well, lucky FMG and FDL are doing ok


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## Miner (14 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Prospector said:


> That has been talked about for some time in Adelaide, so no new news.  The word was the State Labor Govt didnt agree to the expansion until after the Federal Election because most people are against it - it is in the middle of Adelaide.  And now the Labor Federal Member (Kate Ellis) has slammed her local pollies because it is in her electorate.
> 
> Funny thing is, well, not funny really, was I heard about the expansion yesterday morning on the radio while in the car - and thought that was good news for BKN.  I hadnt logged on to my Trading Account at that time.  By the time I got home I saw that BKn had 'lost' me so many thousands, so sold them in disgust.  Oh well, lucky FMG and FDL are doing ok




Adelaid is a funny town. I remember a very good foundry was closed in the heart of Adelaide (only 5 mins drive from airport) in 2003 due to protest from public and EPA . I bought some stuff from the place a throw away price from auction on behalf of my employer.
That company was taken over by BKN now. Again the same Adelaide City has allowed expansion for BKN foundry,
Pollies and locals are just mercury drops on floor - it can tilt either way.
Any way probably good time to buy BKN now. 

Regards


----------



## grace (17 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I see BKN has opened a trading window for 4 weeks.  Might be a dumb question, but what does this mean exactly?


----------



## Prospector (17 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



grace said:


> I see BKN has opened a trading window for 4 weeks.  Might be a dumb question, but what does this mean exactly?





Hardly a dumb question - well, I dont think it is coz I don't have a clue either!
And subject to no further announcements?  Haven't heard of this before  

OK, a check on another sight suggests it allows people within the company (or those who might be restricted from buying/selling shares due to 'inside information')  have now been allowed to buy/sell shares for a month without restriction, unless there is another announcement made!


----------



## grace (17 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Prospector said:


> Hardly a dumb question - well, I dont think it is coz I don't have a clue either!
> And subject to no further announcements?  Haven't heard of this before
> 
> OK, a check on another sight suggests it allows people within the company (or those who might be restricted from buying/selling shares due to 'inside information')  have now been allowed to buy/sell shares for a month without restriction, unless there is another announcement made!




Whatever this trading window is, it didn't help the sp today.
Credit Suisse today issued an outperform on Bradken with a target of $12.00.


----------



## michael_selway (17 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



grace said:


> Whatever this trading window is, it didn't help the sp today.
> Credit Suisse today issued an outperform on Bradken with a target of $12.00.




Hm forecasts are still not bad, i think it just got too expensive at $15

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 45.8 62.9 74.8 86.5 
DPS 31.5 41.0 47.5 49.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## sfx (18 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



grace said:


> Whatever this trading window is, it didn't help the sp today.
> Credit Suisse today issued an outperform on Bradken with a target of $12.00.




At least the directors aren't selling off like ROC Oil. They had numerous Directors and other management partially sell down on their holdings. Confidence is at a low overall - esp with this market environment ?! 

I agree that forecasts still don't look too bad for BKN though... but then again who knows...


----------



## hardcoremike (21 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

just wondering if anyone is holding onto BKN for the medium term?
if so, what do you think the future prospects, is the SP likely to hit 10 within 1 year?


cheers.


----------



## Sean K (21 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



hardcoremike said:


> just wondering if anyone is holding onto BKN for the medium term?
> if so, what do you think the future prospects, is the SP likely to hit 10 within 1 year?
> 
> cheers.



Why do you seem to think that it will hit 10 in a year hcm? Value, trend, ???? Or, is this just a total pluck? It's great to hear how people put 12 month valuations on companies. Cheers! kennas


----------



## hardcoremike (21 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

just a wild guess mate- i don't think it'll get back to the original levels, but maybe a few dollars below.

i guess it hasn't quite reached the bottom yet?

cheers.


----------



## Sean K (21 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



hardcoremike said:


> just a wild guess mate- i don't think it'll get back to the original levels, but maybe a few dollars below.
> 
> i guess it hasn't quite reached the bottom yet?
> 
> cheers.



Looking at the ann that drove the collapse, I can't really see the justifcation for it. What am I missing?


----------



## flinders (21 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I went into BKN just over 12mnths ago @6.25 in S/Fund for longer term.happy over time frame  up to 15+..
charts looking steady climb then  wallop,  cant understand such a drop after statement.still in there,believe will slowly recover over time.(still ahead)


----------



## ba229 (21 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



kennas said:


> Looking at the ann that drove the collapse, I can't really see the justifcation for it. What am I missing?




I am the same.

Was this company really valued that high on the back of expected profits?

It's not like it has been producing great dividends anyway (in my opinion).

I am holding in the medium term simply because this has been a darling stock of mine over the last 2 years.


----------



## oldblue (30 December 2007)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

This market is just not prepared to tolerate profit downgrades.
Will be good buying when the SP stabilises and starts to show some strength but I'm not hurrying to invest just yet.


----------



## oldblue (3 January 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I'm still not in, but is anything specific causing this stock to drop almost 5% today, or is it just the state of the market?


----------



## hardcoremike (3 January 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

i can't see any announcements so imo, it'd be the emotions doing the selling.
good time to keep a close eye out as to when theres stability
cheers


----------



## Julia (3 January 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



oldblue said:


> I'm still not in, but is anything specific causing this stock to drop almost 5% today, or is it just the state of the market?



Suggest it's the general state of the market.  I have several which are down about that much today and only a couple which are up.


----------



## Julia (4 January 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Well, my comment of yesterday now seems like rubbish - market is up today and BKN still down.

Nizar, did you sell?


----------



## oldblue (4 January 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Julia said:


> Well, my comment of yesterday now seems like rubbish - market is up today and BKN still down.
> 
> Nizar, did you sell?




Well for whatever reason, it seems the right stategy to leave BKN alone until it finds a level.

Time enough to buy then.


----------



## Miner (4 January 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



oldblue said:


> Well for whatever reason, it seems the right stategy to leave BKN alone until it finds a level.
> 
> Time enough to buy then.




You are probably right.
Every time I put a low trigger the SMS from Commsec comes to say BKN has passed the limit.
Ironically my friendly broker at Bell Potter still maintained its original recommendation as BUY . As I have posted before when Bell says Buy - Just sell the beast.

Regards


----------



## Miner (5 January 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

thought the attached document from BPS will say something. BUY BKN AT $9.40 AND BUY AT DIPS. How dip is dip only Bell Potters can say. 
If I have had the ability I would award non metallic gold coin  to the great researcher from BPS. 

Enjoy the report.

Regards


----------



## oldblue (5 January 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Thanks, Miner.

BPS make it sound like BKN is a screaming buy at current prices but I think I'll wait for this big dipper ride to end.


----------



## ROE (18 January 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I cant see anything special about this Stock 

Share holder equity decreasing -- bad
Debt Rising -- Bad
Outstanding shares increasing -- Bad


----------



## oldblue (18 January 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Directors have been buying in reasonable quantities. ---Good! 

Don't have their level of confidence. I'm still waiting.


----------



## ROE (18 January 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Directors buying is a good sign but I'm a skeptical bastard and sometimes
I questions their motive 

I mean sure they spend a couple of hundred K on the stocks but how much money are they making in return? ... their salary is some where in millions
and really a couple hundred K is nothing extraordinary for them.

but for me to lose 20K or something that a fair chunk of my income and for them to lose a couple hundred K it maybe be lose change for them... they get the luxury of making it back in Bonuses regardless of how well a company is run these days 

I like it better where they have significant of their wealth ties to a company they run like FLT, WWA etc... that provides a better pictures of how much stake they have in the game.


----------



## oldblue (18 January 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I'd normally be right up there with you ROE in the scepticsm stakes but directors of BKN don't seem overpaid by today's standards. M/D collected $1.7m for his efforts last year but  other directors ranged from $94k to $186k (Chairman - NG) so I don't think that they are making an empty gesture by their buying.
In any case, I'm waiting for this skittish market to settle before committing myself. Have made too many mistakes buying in falling markets to want to repeat the experience.


----------



## Judd (18 January 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

An irrelevancy probably.  AFI became a substantial shareholder in BKN on 10/1/07.  Same mob that dumped its entire holdings in CNP before the brown matter really hit the air-conditioner.


----------



## Wysiwyg (1 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



michael_selway said:


> Yeah its not bad
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...




Will the interim dividend be above 10 c???It has been increasing every year but steadying growth reported!!!


----------



## michael_selway (2 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Wysiwyg said:


> Will the interim dividend be above 10 c???It has been increasing every year but steadying growth reported!!!




They havent announced this yet have they? If not do you know when?

thx

MS

*Date: 22/1/2008 
Author: Michael Smith 
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 18 
Australian-listed mining engineering firm, Bradken, has insisted its long-termprospects remain strong. The company has achieved 30 per cent annual earningsgrowth for four years. However, in December 2007, the group predicted a flatfirst-half profit, thanks to delays in producing rail cars, a poorly-priced UKcontract and unexpectedly low growth for customers' mining projects. Sharesin Bradken have dropped 55 per cent since that warning. The stock ended trade$A0.10 higher on 21 January 2008, at $A6.75. Goldman Sachs JBWere recentlyupgraded its rating for Bradken shares from "hold" to "buy" *


----------



## pajm (2 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I have been a holder of BKN since early 2006 purely in the knowledge of AFI holding together with BKN servicing a booming mining sector. The initial fall in the sp last year was certainly disconcerting, driven further with recent market overkill. However, I increased my holdings during the recent market spill with knowledge of AFI re-entry and Comm. Securities also becoming a major holder. I have had good success over the years in following Comm. Securities holdings (NXS, AVO and AWE). The market is a lottery at times as far as I am concerned and following some of the big end of town one hopes to at least lessen the risk. Good timing for the DRP to be back in anticipation that (hopefully) we will see sp head north again. SP looks like for the time being it has bottomed out around the 6 to 6.50 range. Rock on!


----------



## oldblue (4 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Half year result was a little better than expected and on the strength of that I've taken a small position.
Co seems confident of the next 6-12 months. I'd be happier if operating cash flow was a little stronger but we can't have everything the way we want it?


----------



## michael_selway (4 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



oldblue said:


> Half year result was a little better than expected and on the strength of that I've taken a small position.
> Co seems confident of the next 6-12 months. I'd be happier if operating cash flow was a little stronger but we can't have everything the way we want it?




BKN not bad results today

*Outlook and Strategy
“Bradken’s long term strategy remains unchanged. We believe the long term mining production expansion in Australia will
continue as each bottleneck is removed. Our work on margin growth continues to deliver improved performance through
capital investment, the deepening of the value add to our customers and by way of further vertical integration,” said Mr
Hodges.
“We maintain capacity to expand through aligned acquisitions in Australia and overseas. In a period of higher interest
rates and tightening credit, we anticipate there may be some downward adjustment in acquisition values.”
“The next period will see increasing costs and tightness in the labour market, which our current programs are addressing.
Our overheads, while on plan, have increased ahead of recent growth levels and will be restrained in the short term to
enhance profitability.”
“Power & Cement is expected to return a normal level of profitability in the second half as the completion of the
unprofitable contract, from product already made in Australia, will not impact on its capacity to complete orders from its
significant order book. In addition, we are expecting growth in mine production volumes and demand from infrastructure
projects delayed from the first half. A full six months contribution from recent acquisitions and associated synergy benefits
will also provide impetus in the second half of this financial year.”
“We therefore maintain our previous guidance for the full year and expect EBITDA growth of around 20% and EPS growth
of around 15%.”*


----------



## oldblue (5 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



oldblue said:


> Half year result was a little better than expected and on the strength of that I've taken a small position.
> Co seems confident of the next 6-12 months. I'd be happier if operating cash flow was a little stronger but we can't have everything the way we want it?




SP ended the day up 13.4%! Market obviously likes the result more than I did.

Should have taken a much bigger position!!


----------



## michael_selway (5 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



oldblue said:


> SP ended the day up 13.4%! Market obviously likes the result more than I did.
> 
> Should have taken a much bigger position!!




Not today however!

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 45.8 54.7 63.7 73.0 
DPS 31.5 36.5 42.0 49.0*


----------



## oldblue (6 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Yes, looks like my timidity has kept me out of trouble here!

I'll still be looking to buy some more if/when an uptrend develops.


----------



## pajm (6 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I believe BKN have been a good buy for the last couple weeks. I increased my holdings on 11.01 @ the $6.30's range - prior to that week of insanity on the market. They have held their own since with the volatility and therefore reckon they bottomed out. They got oversold on the back of downgrade in Dec. dove tailing with the correction. Oversold like a lot of good stocks. One's person's panic is another's picnic.


----------



## oldblue (6 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



pajm said:


> I believe BKN have been a good buy for the last couple weeks. I increased my holdings on 11.01 @ the $6.30's range - prior to that week of insanity on the market. They have held their own since with the volatility and therefore reckon they bottomed out. They got oversold on the back of downgrade in Dec. dove tailing with the correction. Oversold like a lot of good stocks. One's person's panic is another's picnic.




I'm with you on that, pajm, but given the state of the market I'll be looking for an uptrend before I add to my position.


----------



## pajm (6 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Certainly hope oldblue we do not have the hurley burley of Jan. market again in short term as I imagine could possibly test BKN below 6.00 range.


----------



## Miner (6 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I noted BKN as a buy recommended by Huntley (on 4 and 6 Feb), Inter Suisse, Bell Potter (on 5 Feb).
Directors bought the share at much higher price than what is today.
Market got plunge but this little foundry kept head strong and upright.
I personally believe with Adelaide Foundry expansion there is good show from this company.
IMO $7 is good price now with half yearly result isout.

Good luck


----------



## Miner (8 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Fact is stranger than fiction

Today Commsec Research recommended BKN as BUY/ Outform.
On the same day ASX has reported CBA has ceased to be a major share holder.
Does not match: who ramped whom ? If Commsec is so sure on its research then why they sold off?

Probably as some one said when all brokers agree it as BUY then you SELL. and Vice versa. I have followd this for Bell Potter recommendation - whey they say buy then I sell. They hardly said SELL so I buy using some research and some punt.

Cheers


----------



## pajm (8 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I hold NXS and I remember someone noting on the thread once when CBA sold their holding that were still buying them for their super (don't know how they knew) so not too sure if they are doing same here. CBA have been yo yo with their holding - briefly in Dec. and now again. So.........who knows!?


----------



## Muschu (10 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Hi 
I noticed in the Eureka Report [8/2] reference to AFI "picking off some bargains, such as Bradken."
I gather they bought around the $6 mark.  [Currently just over $7].
With a 12 m high of over $15 is there any consensus here as to reasonable expectations for 2008?
Thanks
Rick


----------



## Muschu (13 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

It seems CBA is once again [rapid turnover] a major BKN holder.  Is this correct?  I think an announcement of 7/2 said they'd ceased to be a major holder and one of y'day said they were back in again.... Strange world.


----------



## Judd (13 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Muschu,

It is not CBA itself.  It is different organisations, possibly with different boards and investment officers, which may be associated with CBA.  Best sometimes to look at the actual schedules attached to the ASX announcement rather than relying on the headline .

Cheers


----------



## Muschu (13 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Thanks Judd. I realised that but also wondered, as CBA associates, about renewed confidence from that area re BKN.


----------



## Miner (14 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

For the benefit of all I have attached two announcements from CBA in ASX. The announcements were meant for CBA shareholders - so no matter how many associates are there the net owner is CBA share holders.
Commsec recommended strong performer and a bUY for BKN on 7th Feb report. Ironically on 4 Feb they lost the major shareholder status by selling off BKN. Once again on 7 Feb they became again major shareholder. Where is the change of science in 3 days for so good risk managers, bla bla and astute buying. Like any horse trader they behaved and that is why the banks get sucked into sub prime , bad category etc areas making the whole market in turmoil.

Enjoy with two reports and surely many of us have seen it.


----------



## oldblue (18 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Three directors have announced increases to their shareholdings.  

Only a few thou but good to see them putting their money to good use.


----------



## Judd (18 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Miner said:


> For the benefit of all I have attached two announcements from CBA in ASX. The announcements were meant for CBA shareholders - so no matter how many associates are there the net owner is CBA share holders.
> Commsec recommended strong performer and a bUY for BKN on 7th Feb report. Ironically on 4 Feb they lost the major shareholder status by selling off BKN. Once again on 7 Feb they became again major shareholder. Where is the change of science in 3 days for so good risk managers, bla bla and astute buying. Like any horse trader they behaved and that is why the banks get sucked into sub prime , bad category etc areas making the whole market in turmoil.
> 
> Enjoy with two reports and surely many of us have seen it.




What on earth are you on about?  It is nominee companies, Citicorp,  National, and the like which are doing the buying/selling (Refer to the schedules attached to the notices).  It is NOT CBA itself.  Stop misleading or, preferably, just reading the headlines and nothing else.


----------



## Miner (18 February 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Judd said:


> What on earth are you on about?  It is nominee companies, Citicorp,  National, and the like which are doing the buying/selling (Refer to the schedules attached to the notices).  It is NOT CBA itself.  Stop misleading or, preferably, just reading the headlines and nothing else.




Dear Judd

Thanks for reading my post.
I would take extra caution on a report saying misleading when the reports are exactly reproduced. 
The holdings were announced by CBA  and not created by me.

If you do not like the announcements PLEASE do not read them. But PLEASE do not call it was misleading. 

I have an excellent vocabulary to say some thing else to respond you. However my school teacher always advised me that "*human does not bite a dog even a dog bites a human"*
Enjoy the forum


----------



## tony montana (12 March 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

any news on the front out there about bradken...there must be something positive about this stock


----------



## Miner (13 March 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I was advised by BPS broker that BKN due to very high debt equity ratio is not favoured by many people at this moment though technical capability is very good. Further with stronger dollar value (my opinion) BKN cost of production is high. They I believe have a chinese operation but overall a bit pricy.

Regards


----------



## pajm (16 March 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Makes me wonder miner about brokers saying about high debt equity ratio when I consider AFIC holding. BKN came on my radar as a result of AFIC initial holding in 2005. They sold and came back in January this year, and I topped-up as a result. There is a good article in Melb. Age today with Bruce Teele from AFIC. He mentions how they got out of ABC, Centro and some of Asciano over past 12-18 months as a result of debt levels related to expansion - good calls. AFIC are conservative, so hopefully they have got it right with BKN. I back them accordingly but will monitor though to see if they continue to hold.


----------



## tony montana (29 April 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

six weeks since any posts on this stock and its gone up by 25% in that time with no announcements.... cant wait to see what will happen when some good news come out about bkn.


----------



## oldblue (26 June 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

BKN up 45c today on no news. In fact, no news since the confirmation of profit guidance a few weeks ago.
Any thoughts out there?


----------



## pajm (26 June 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Not too sure oldblue. Market a funny beast at the moment. Hoping it may have run over 8 with that recent run but stalled, reflecting overall market turning sth. again.


----------



## prana (27 June 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

It's not a strange world. Holdings get xferred from one trust to the other come June, to offset against gains and losses. Many funds are measured on yearly gains and losses. Like it or not, that's your call. Even better, sometimes, massive losses see even lower Junes, and a small rebound in July.


----------



## oldblue (27 June 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



prana said:


> It's not a strange world. Holdings get xferred from one trust to the other come June, to offset against gains and losses. Many funds are measured on yearly gains and losses. Like it or not, that's your call. Even better, sometimes, massive losses see even lower Junes, and a small rebound in July.




I don't know that that's got a lot to do with BKN's SP. No sign of unusual turnover which you would associate with window-dressing by Funds.


----------



## prana (27 June 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

oldblue - I was being a  muppet and replying to Feb/March posts re change substantial holdings ... feel free to ridicule, I'm happy to be the clown of the day :


----------



## oldblue (27 June 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Not to worry, prana. We all have our Rip van Winkle moments!
Meanwhile, BKN up another 13c today in an otherwise soggy market.


----------



## tony montana (30 July 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

so i supose with all thats happening with bkn,trading halt and buying another casting company and now fund raising with shares its still not enough to get people posting on this thread hey.....oohh well....i have invested in this stock because of the close ties to the mining industry and some advice i got from a friend....would be nice to here what other people think about this stock.


----------



## boid (9 August 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

been gradually selling down...still holding some and will top up in the SPP - well worth it...like $1.80 in the money already


----------



## yang (10 August 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



boid said:


> been gradually selling down...still holding some and will top up in the SPP - well worth it...like $1.80 in the money already




yer, will be looking to top up on the SPP meself...

this one has run rather hard over the past few weeks, I will be interested to see  how BKN holds up if the resource sector continues to weaken - what are others thoughts with regard to this?


----------



## boid (10 August 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

i read from one of the bkn reports long time ago...its not so much commodity prices that are important for them but volume.  The volume ramp up takes time...but its what the BHPs and RIOs have been trying to do for last couple of years and i think they are now just beginning to come through...


----------



## Miner (11 August 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

I hope we know BKN Foundry at Henderson WA has been fined by Worksafe for negligence and unsafe practice with the unfortunate death of a young person on his first day of work, 

The amount of fine is $100K

Probably this is a start of a bigger problem for the company even if Henderson a small plant acquired from Downer EDI


----------



## tony montana (16 August 2008)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

as sad as it was for that young boy to lose his life...100k wont realy affect a company of that size.....doesnt justify it though...and lets hope they have turned the work place around so there are no more tragic stories like that.    :bad:


----------



## YELNATS (17 February 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

BKN has been deserted by major holders BTT, UBS & WBC in recent days, driving their price lower, despite reporting record profits. Their outlook may not be that rosey but the sp is at a 12 month low, a 10c dividend is payable soon, and management seems to be taking a sensible approach to capital preservation.

So I'm think that perhaps a venture into BKN is worthwhile at present.


----------



## oldblue (17 February 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

It's certainly looking interesting.
But I'll wait to see this SP trend turn around. I don't see any need to be in a hurry in this market!


----------



## michael_selway (17 February 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



YELNATS said:


> BKN has been deserted by major holders BTT, UBS & WBC in recent days, driving their price lower, despite reporting record profits. Their outlook may not be that rosey but the sp is at a 12 month low, a 10c dividend is payable soon, and management seems to be taking a sensible approach to capital preservation.
> 
> So I'm think that perhaps a venture into BKN is worthwhile at present.




Hi, it appears their Debt is an issue?

Bradken achieves record first half results
Dec 08 Dec 07 Change
NPAT and minorities $34.9m $23.2m Up 51%
EBITDA $90.7m $53.6m Up 69%
EBITDA margin 14.7% 14.9%
Sales Revenue $615.8m $358.8m Up 72%
Earnings per share 28.3 cents 21.9 cents Up 29%
Dividend per share 10.0 cents 15.0 cents Down 33%
LTIFR (Aus, UK, China) 4.3 10.0 Improved 57%

*Net Debt at December 2008 of $426 million includes $164 million of net borrowings from the Engineered Products Division. The Company’s gearing remains sound with Net Debt to Net Debt plus Equity improving from 60% to 55% and Net Debt at 2.20 times EBITDA.*

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 54.2 60.9 54.0 63.9 
DPS 37.0 21.0 29.7 30.0* 



> Date: 12/2/2009
> Author: Luke Forrestal
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 20
> Australian mining services companies performed well in the first half of2008-09, but the outlook for the full year is uncertain. Engineering groupBradken has reported a record interim net profit of $A34.9 million, a rise of 51per cent. Heavy equipment hire firm, Emeco, expects a record interim net profitof $A39.1 million, but it has downgraded its guidance for the full year










thx

MS


----------



## YELNATS (2 April 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

BKN is up a huge 22% so far today. Took it in last month's tipping competition, so today's rise is a week too late.

Took some profit, but still holding the bulk of it, however.


----------



## YELNATS (3 April 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

BKN up another 22% today and now a significant 52% over the past 2 days.

Anyone else holding this stock and any conjecture on long this run will last, or is the beginning of a long upward trend?

NB - I continue to hold.


----------



## Miner (3 April 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



YELNATS said:


> BKN up another 22% today and now a significant 52% over the past 2 days.
> 
> Anyone else holding this stock and any conjecture on long this run will last, or is the beginning of a long upward trend?
> 
> NB - I continue to hold.




I am holding only a fraction of holding as I was too nervous (from previous missed opportunities) not to keep them and unloaded in two occassions last two days. 
I for a change earned some profit but not good enough to make the total portfolio.

Some thing going too good with BKN and very nicely 22% each day rise without any announcement. Can I be cynical to say it is being managed carefully to avoid flag from ASX system ? 

Do not know if the Bradken themselves are  doing it or some one else is eyeing on BKN ? We will definitely know it in next week


----------



## oldblue (3 April 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

BKN had the "Please explain" from the asx yesterday and came back with the " I know nothing" line.
Maybe it's just a belated realisation that the SP has been beaten down too savagely. After all, directors have been pretty consistent accumulators for some time now.

Disc: No longer holding.


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## Ferret (3 April 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

They got a speeding ticket yesterday.          

Gave the standard answer - "I know nothing"!

Sure looks like something is up though.


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## michael_selway (3 April 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Ferret said:


> They got a speeding ticket yesterday.
> 
> Gave the standard answer - "I know nothing"!
> 
> Sure looks like something is up though.




Yeah not bad today






thx

MS


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## YELNATS (6 April 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Ferret said:


> They got a speeding ticket yesterday.
> 
> Gave the standard answer - "I know nothing"!
> 
> Sure looks like something is up though.




Up a bit more today to as high as $2.70. Looks like the "know nothing" reply to the speeding ticket hasn't deflated the sp rise. Maybe there is something about to unfold though.


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## YELNATS (16 April 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

BKN up to $3.24 closing today on its' high, which is always nice. Up around 130% since Feb 17th when I entered.

Has been a good runner over the past 2 months including the 10c fully franked dividend.

Any ideas on how much further this one could run in the near term?

Still hold though have taken some profit.


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## YELNATS (23 April 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Finally exited all positions in BKN today at $3.30. May go higher in the short term but with 92% net profit in 2 months I'm satisfied with this run. 

May re-enter if it retraces below $3.

Wish all forays were as good as this one has been.


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## Muschu (7 September 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

One day I'll understand this perhaps - or not.  
BKN went XD on 11/8 and I bought on 12/8.
Dividends paid today but I miss out -- correct?
Advice welcome.
Rick


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## oldblue (7 September 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Muschu said:


> One day I'll understand this perhaps - or not.
> BKN went XD on 11/8 and I bought on 12/8.
> Dividends paid today but I miss out -- correct?
> Advice welcome.
> Rick




XD means " ex dividend" - ie, "Without dividend".

If you buy XD, you buy without the benefit of the dividend.

The opposite, in the period between announcement of a dividend and the XD date is CD - " cum dividend" - when a buyer is entitled to the divvy.


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## Muschu (7 September 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



oldblue said:


> XD means " ex dividend" - ie, "Without dividend".
> 
> If you buy XD, you buy without the benefit of the dividend.
> 
> The opposite, in the period between announcement of a dividend and the XD date is CD - " cum dividend" - when a buyer is entitled to the divvy.




Makes sense - thanks.  I thought there was a "recording date" somewhere between the XD date and the payment date - and that this [the recording date] may be the key to who receives, or does not, the dividend.


----------



## oldblue (7 September 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Muschu said:


> Makes sense - thanks.  I thought there was a "recording date" somewhere between the XD date and the payment date - and that this [the recording date] may be the key to who receives, or does not, the dividend.




Best to ignore the "recording date" in these circumstances. Settlement takes place three days after the trade ( T+3 in the terminology ) so recording date is usually 3 days after the last date cum div. But CD and XD are the ones to watch!


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## Muschu (8 September 2009)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



oldblue said:


> Best to ignore the "recording date" in these circumstances. Settlement takes place three days after the trade ( T+3 in the terminology ) so recording date is usually 3 days after the last date cum div. But CD and XD are the ones to watch!




Hi oldblue
By 'recording date' I hope you didn't think I meant the date the shares were paid for.  I was referring to a date, other than the XD date, on which ownership had to be in place in order to be entitled to the dividend,
Anywa, I just checked my bank statement and the dividend was received ... .not a lot but I've decided to keep it.  
Regards
Rick


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## two up (10 June 2010)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

So, does anyone know why Bradken is dropping in price as much as it is lately??? Is it because of the share raising??


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## Eager (7 February 2012)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

A reasonable result today all things considered, but the share price closed 2.7% down. Dividends increased slightly and the current yield is 5.2%. Second half results are traditionally stronger, and the outlook is for this to continue.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20120207/pdf/01266299.pdf

I hold BKN.


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## Julia (7 February 2012)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

How long have you held BKN, Eager?  I held it from fairly early in 2006 to 2008 and it did well.


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## Eager (8 February 2012)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



Julia said:


> How long have you held BKN, Eager?  I held it from fairly early in 2006 to 2008 and it did well.



I (meaning either we or her  )have actually held them several times! 

Nov 2006-Jun 2008, 35% gain. My finger hovered over the Sell button the day before they crashed in Dec 2007 when they were near $15, honest! I followed them down to $8.44. Oh well.
Jun-Sep 2008, different owner  , 15% gain;
Nov 2008-Dec 2009, doubled our money. 
In again individually from mid 2010, currently 9% ahead, and dividends have paid off 12% of the purchase price since.

BKN have been very good for us over the journey.


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## beatthemarket (20 June 2012)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Since the beginning of the ‘Risk off period’ (2 April 2012) they have underperformed the XAO by 26.7%.  This underperformance, it seems, is due to the earnings downgrade and a loss of confidence in the business.  Our view is that the businesses are sound.  The problematic rail business is in only about 15% of earnings and for the mining products business the bad news about licence loss and product delays should now be in the past.   About 50% of their earnings are driven by production volumes and whilst commodity prices are softening no one is suggesting that volumes of coal and iron ore are going backwards.  Still looking pretty oversold to me at these prices...


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## brettc4 (14 October 2012)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Looking through some charts and saw just how far Bradken has fallen this year.

We appear to have a triangle forming at the moment, and while we have some higher lows, we also have lower highs. The down days are on above average volume, I see no other way than down for Bradken in the near term.
I expect we will see $4.60 before long.


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## piggybank (29 December 2013)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*


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## VSntchr (5 December 2014)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Market likes the announcement today but my read is that it is not factoring in the the takeover with the (non-binding) price offered at $5.10. Makes sense, as the last $6.00 offer materialised to a big fat nothing.

The spiel looks to be trying to convince shareholders that it's not in their best interests too..despite being at a big premium to current price:


Proposal comes at low-point in cycle
We've recently made a great acquisition
We are reducing costs and boosting EBITDA
Order intake has improved after low point in 4Q13

Additionally, they snuck in this line "the board had approved a small equity raising, via a placement....In light of the current proposal, this has been put on hold".
Interesting to see a mining services company talking this way after we have become used to the usual rhetoric around uncertain future with low demand going forward etc etc...


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## notting (5 December 2014)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

They are also suspect of using take over 'proposals' for raising capital with respect to their large stake in ANG.
They made a bid for ANG, ANG did a capital raising and then BKN then gave up the bid!


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## skc (5 December 2014)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



VSntchr said:


> The spiel looks to be trying to convince shareholders that it's not in their best interests too..despite being at a big premium to current price:




That's my read of the announcement as well... they don't really want to sell.

Although in the mining services space, BKN is a slightly unique company in that it is mostly a manufacturer of mining products and consumerables. So it doesn't have a gang of contract miners and it has large fixed assets that are not the usual cranes and excavators etc. A PE outfit might be interested to see if they can ride out the current downturn without the listed market scrutiny, and make gains from the operational leverage when the tide turns. 

Interesting to see how this play out. The failure rate of takeovers has been particularly poor recently.


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## notting (28 January 2015)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Still didn't think the market would be smart enough to hit it that hard when the inevitable happened.
Now for the capital raising!
They should have planned all that and aligned the stars, so they could have stayed in a halt till they get  some money. Maybe they did and no stake holders wanted any more BKN!
Gonna be pretty dilutionary now.
Almost makes it worth getting in to get the offer, but mining services, well no.
Could be in cents in 18 months.


----------



## notting (15 July 2015)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*

Well it nearly got there,  into the cents that is, in only 6 months too!
Managed to pull off a short squeeze today by confirming earnings and hinting that it is still potentially in play.
This mob have a history for questionable 'in play' announcements regarding their interests. Remember this little episode - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5242&p=806803&viewfull=1#post806803
Dividend next month will probably help shorters cash in and be a little reluctant to get back in till that's done.


----------



## notting (21 April 2016)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



notting said:


> Well it nearly got there,  into the cents that is, in only 6 months too!
> Managed to pull off a short squeeze today by confirming earnings and hinting that it is still potentially in play.
> This mob have a history for questionable 'in play' announcements regarding their interests. Remember this little episode - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5242&p=806803&viewfull=1#post806803
> Dividend next month will probably help shorters cash in and be a little reluctant to get back in till that's done.




Still in play,  my my.......
It took it only another 6 months to get from 110 ish to .38c  all the while take over rumors abounding.  Still abounding.  Action? -  No.  :crap:


----------



## skc (21 April 2016)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



notting said:


> Still in play,  my my.......
> It took it only another 6 months to get from 110 ish to .38c  all the while take over rumors abounding.  Still abounding.  Action? -  No.  :crap:




Can a company sue a suitor for continued approaches like a sexual harassment case? Some people just won't take no for an answer. I say go hostile on-market @ 30% premium and see what holding it can capture.


----------



## notting (21 April 2016)

*Re: BKN - Bradken*



skc said:


> Can a company sue a suitor for continued approaches like a sexual harassment case? Some people just won't take no for an answer. I say go hostile on-market @ 30% premium and see what holding it can capture.




I think BKN are paying them for the informal bugger all on the table approaches. (It's - satire don't sue me BKN)
But you are right if they do not make an aggressive grab now, you cannot imagine how they could ever have been genuine in the first place. 30c from $2.50 gimmee a break  Still not taking it? BS!  They have to or it really is a total scam.


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## notting (13 May 2016)

Have you ever seen such optimism!!
Or have shorters just lost their minds and bailing out onto dry land!:bonk::silly:
Hhmmm short Bradkin $1.275 - :homer:


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## notting (26 May 2016)

Here we go.  There is a rather odd looking take over offer for BKN.  Then a massive run up and Austin (BKN owns a big chunk) sells something which ends the run up then does this - 



> Eligible shareholders will be entitled to subscribe for 2 new shares
> at $0.08 per share for every 1 Austin share held as at 7:00pm (Australian Eastern Standard Time) on Monday, 6 June 2016.
> The offer price of A$0.08 per share represents a 50% discount to the closing price of Austin shares on 23 May 2016 (being the last trading day before announcement of the Entitlement Offer) and a discount of 25% to the
> theoretical ex-rights price (TERP) of A$0.107.




Hmm 50 percent discount.  Swell.  

What's going to happen next, price crashes and BKN buys it?  Lets wait and see


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## notting (27 July 2016)

Due to recent momentum I put a bid on this at 1.12 just before the average :dunno: restructure news.
It then took off and by 22.5% to 1.355 I missed it.  NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

I also missed PRG yesterday by one tick.  Up today by 11%

Kill me



PS buy the rumor sell the fact!


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## notting (28 July 2016)

notting said:


> PS buy the rumor sell the fact!




Looks like longs are lining up to dump on the squeeze. Fat sellers at 1.70 thus far - (very short term opportunity, 1.665)


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## System (18 May 2017)

On May 17th, 2017, Bradken Limited (BKN) was removed from the ASX's official list at the request of the Company, pursuant to Listing Rule 17.14, following the completion of the compulsory acquisition by Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd of all the issued shares of the Company.


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