# U.S. Portfolio



## Duarte

In this thread I will share trade ideas, charts, notes, and some viewpoints.

The U.S.Portfolio is a market timing portfolio designed to get profit with market trends.

The portfolio invests in companies, exchange traded funds (ETFs), leveraged ETFs, and Inverse ETFs listed on United States Stock Exchanges.

In order to see what is going to happen before it takes place the U.S. Portfolio has an important rule:

“All trade ideas and stop loss orders must be sent to this thread, with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening, and automatically placed on the market after the market opens. The orders will be executed at the opening price, except in the case of stop loss orders."

I consider 5 USD per buy or sell order.

The start value of the portfolio is 35 000 USD.

For this work I will use my experience, memory, intelligence, technical indicators, some are proprietary other are familiar to all people as Relative Strength Index, MACD or Stochastic Oscillator, and some fundamental indicators.

I will try my best … 

Avoid “end of race” mistakes. If things are not going well I will not put too much money in stock market. Cut my losses instead of hoping that market will come back. Not play like an addict. I will be objective. I will be an investor or a trader, whatever is considered most advantageous in a particular situation. I will control emotions, apply the reason, not repeat mistakes, and think for myself.


That ´s it. 

I'll start it soon.


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## Duarte

I looked for the US stocks on my watch list, and I saw that the large majority is in overbought zone.
For that reason, I'm going to wait a little longer so I can get a better idea of what the market is going to do.


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## Duarte

Some time ago, I have done a longer-term analysis.
Now, I've done a little update.

Chart 1 - S & P500 index monthly candlestick chart between January 1966 and March 2013.







My guess about what is happening is that the S & P 500 since 2000 is following the path between 1968 and 1983.
This suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term.

Chart 2 - The following chart shows the Price ROC indicator between January 1966 and March 2013.






The triple bottom pattern that the indicator did in 1994 was repeated between 2011 and 2012.
After the triple bottom pattern in 1994, the S&P 500 rose during 5 years.
This also suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term.


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## Duarte

My guess is that the S&P 500 will rise to its resistance line, close to the level of 1575.
That said, in the very short term I have doubts that the market will rise.


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## So_Cynical

Duarte said:


> I looked for the US stocks on my watch list, and I saw that the large majority is in overbought zone.
> For that reason, I'm going to wait a little longer so I can get a better idea of what the market is going to do.




Seriously Duarte...you had to look at a US watchlist to realize that the market has had a bit of a run up? 

been living in a cave for the last 5 months?


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## CanOz

So_Cynical said:


> Seriously Duarte...you had to look at a US watchlist to realize that the market has had a bit of a run up?
> 
> been living in a cave for the last 5 months?




lol......:sleeping:


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## Duarte

So_Cynical said:


> Seriously Duarte...you had to look at a US watchlist to realize that the market has had a bit of a run up?
> 
> been living in a cave for the last 5 months?




living in a cave??? 5 months????

I think that message was not directed straight at me
....


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## Duarte

A few days ago, I had a problem with the computer battery charger, but its ok now.
Next week, I ´ll start making trades.


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## Duarte

Now, I am going to look again closely for the period between January 1968 and January 1985, as well as, for the period between November 1999 and March 2013.


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## Duarte

I compared the previous period with the current period, and I came to the conclusion that the S&P500 after reaches its resistance line (key value: 1575) can follow the path 1 or 2, in the first chart.


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## Duarte

Today, the U.S. Portfolio will start.

I ´ll buy DLPH, RWT, EXH, ERX, XIV, UPRO, and EDC.


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## Duarte

Below are the annotated charts:


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## Duarte




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## Duarte

The current U.S. Porfolio


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## Duarte

VELOCITYSHARES DAILY INVERSE VIX (XIV) reached my stop. 

The current portfolio:


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## Duarte

Tomorrow, I will buy again XIV (VELOCITYSHARES DAILY INVERSE VIX)
(I will try again.)


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## peter2

I wanted to let you know that someone is watching. Good luck and stick to your trading plan. You do have one don't you? 

My first impressions are that you are getting into the trend a bit late and using a reasonably tight initial SL. This combination will produce many quick losses as the markets have a tendency to pull back quite often. It will be very important that you manage to get a few large wins. I'll be watching your trade management as you continue. 

You've come to the right forum if you want more accountability and critical examination. 

I notice you are investing a set amount for each trade and placing your SL about 3-5% away. I hope you are aware that the price volatility may be very different in each market. A 3-5% exit stop might be OK with a low volatility market (like an index) but may be inappropriate for a leveraged ETF, or higher volatility stock. A good example of this is your first closed trade on the XIV market which didn't last one day.  Is the VIX (the real one) going to go up slowly or fast? I think the volatility can go up fast and down slowly as people are more fearful initially and take longer to calm down. If you agree, then think about what this means for your trade in the inverse vix ETF (XIV).


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## Duarte

DIREXION DAILY EMERGING MARKETS (EDC): The stop price has been reached.

Current portfolio:


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## Duarte

peter2 

Thank you for your message.
Yes, I have a plan, is a kind of decision making method.  

On 25 February, XIV fell by more than 16 percentage points, and I had to take that into account.
I placed the stop which I believed to be correct at that time.

The market has gone up, but the portfolio started a few days ago and, because of this, I need to be even more cautious.


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## Duarte

I will use stop loss orders very close to the current price, while the S&P 500 index remains below 1625.


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## Duarte

Updating of stop loss orders


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## Duarte

Today, I ´ll buy:

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc: (NYSE: TMO)


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## Duarte

Annotated chart:


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## Duarte

Portfolio:


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## Duarte

DLPH paid a dividend of 0,17 dollars per stock in 3/13/2013.
64*0,17= 10,88
RWT paid a dividend of 0,28 dollars per stock in 3/13/2013.
125*0,28= 35
35+10,88 = 45,88 
I added this amount to the portfolio.


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## Duarte

Current portfolio:


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## Duarte

I've updated the buy price of ERX, UPRO, and XIV.

The opening price of ERX, on 12 March, was 64,48 USD.
The opening price of UPRO, on 12 March, was 114,45 USD.
The opering price of XIV, on 13 March, was 22,75 USD.

Note: All orders are executed at the opening price, except in the case of the stop loss orders.


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## Duarte

Current portfolio:


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## Duarte

Today, I will buy more ERX and XIV, and I also will buy KRC.


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## Duarte

KRC annotated chart:


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## Duarte

Buy price (Average price) of XIV = ((22,75*55)+(23*54))/(55+54) = 22,93
Start date (Average date) of XIV = March 13, 2013

Buy Price (Average price) of ERX = ((64,48*43)+(67,30*22))/(43+22)=65,43
Start Date (Average Date) of ERX =March 14, 2013


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## Duarte

Current portfolio:


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## Duarte

Updating of stop loss orders


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## Duarte

Despite the two negative trades, the first week of the portfolio was slightly positive.


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## Duarte

The following stocks and ETFs reached the stop price yesterday.

Delphi Automotive Plc (DLPH), 
DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BULL 3X SH (ERX), 
PROSHARES ULTRAPRO S&P 500 (UPRO), 
VELOCITYSHARES DAILY INVERSE VIX (XIV),
Kilroy Realty (KRC).


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## Duarte

Listed below are two closed trades:


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## Duarte

Here is a portfolio update:


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## Duarte

Things did not go well this week.
I will adjust my strategy.
I try to choose a certain strategy or another depending on how market moves, and the result obtained.

The market is still too overbought. 
At some point in the future the market will come down.
However, the question remains as to when.
At this moment, I have technical indicators to point in one direction, and others to point in another direction, which means I need to be cautious.


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## peter2

You sold at your exits as you had intended, so I would say that things went as planned. The market has gone sideways for the past two weeks and the increase in volatility has triggered many of your exit stops. This doesn't mean that you have to adjust your strategy. Your trend following or momentum strategy will work when the market moves again. It's important that you are still trading when this happens or you will miss out again. 

My initial impressions are that you need to get into the move earlier using break-out tactics or buy the pullbacks. Once the trade moves in your favour you will be able to ride out future sideways movement and still be in when the price moves higher. I think your entries are late and this is placing your trades under pressure as you use tight exit stops. 

Trading is mainly risk management. Manage your risks well and you will be around long enough to profit from favourable conditions. One aspect of risk management is understanding the correlations of your selected markets (stocks). I've already mentioned that when the market goes down the volatility rises and the XIV will drop quickly. You have also traded multiple ETFs that are highly correlated to the market direction and hence to each other (XIV, ERX, UPRO). You will profit from all or none depending on the immediate movement of the SP500. 

If the market goes down do you have any plans to trade short? Now might be the time to hold a mixture of both longs and shorts in accordance with your interpretation of the charts.


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## Duarte

> 3/27/2013
> What is the most common investor mistake? Trading–getting in and getting out at all the wrong times, for all the wrong reasons. You’ve heard it before: Most investors are their own worst enemies. My dad taught me this investing axiom at an early age. In fact, Dalbar Inc. documented it recently in a report available online called “Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2012.” Google it, and you’ll see evidence from a 20-year study.
> 
> Most mutual fund buyers, for example, badly lag the very funds they buy (and sell) because of bad timing. The average mutual fund holding period for equity or fixed income is only about three years. It’s too short. Moreover, in the last two decades, stupid switching into and out of funds has cost equity fund holders more than four percentage points in annualized returns and bondholders even more–nearly six percentage points.
> 
> The solution, of course, is to trade less.



VIEWPOINT of Ken Fisher


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## Duarte

peter2 said:


> You sold at your exits as you had intended, so I would say that things went as planned. The market has gone sideways for the past two weeks and the increase in volatility has triggered many of your exit stops. This doesn't mean that you have to adjust your strategy. Your trend following or momentum strategy will work when the market moves again. It's important that you are still trading when this happens or you will miss out again.
> 
> My initial impressions are that you need to get into the move earlier using break-out tactics or buy the pullbacks. Once the trade moves in your favour you will be able to ride out future sideways movement and still be in when the price moves higher. I think your entries are late and this is placing your trades under pressure as you use tight exit stops.
> 
> Trading is mainly risk management. Manage your risks well and you will be around long enough to profit from favourable conditions. One aspect of risk management is understanding the correlations of your selected markets (stocks). I've already mentioned that when the market goes down the volatility rises and the XIV will drop quickly. You have also traded multiple ETFs that are highly correlated to the market direction and hence to each other (XIV, ERX, UPRO). You will profit from all or none depending on the immediate movement of the SP500.
> 
> If the market goes down do you have any plans to trade short? Now might be the time to hold a mixture of both longs and shorts in accordance with your interpretation of the charts.




Thank you for your message.
I agree with you, but I also think that I opened too many positions.
If the market falls I will buy inverse ETFs, but I do not know when I will.


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## Duarte

Here is the current portfolio:







A happy Easter to everyone!


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## Duarte

I discovered that there was a rounding problem in EXCEL sheet.

To calculate the Return I used the following formula: (Quantity*Close Price)-(Money), but to avoid the rounding problem I'm going to use the following formula: (Quantity*Close Price)-(Quantity*Buy Price).

The rounding problem has very little effect on portfolio but I have also decided to fix the previous trades.


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## Duarte

Here is a current portfolio update:


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## Duarte

I realized that I get stopped out to many times.
The reason this happened it was because I traded a lot.
I will trade less, if I trade less, I get stopped out less, and my broker will get less commission from me.
At this moment, my technical indicators are mixed, so I'll not risk a lot.


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## peter2

> I realized that I get stopped out to many times.




I agree with you. 



> The reason this happened it was because I traded a lot.




This is not the reason you were stopped out too often. Basically the market stalled and many people decided to take profit after the recent bullish rally. This caused an increase in volatility and the profit taking caused prices to fall slightly. This small price pullback triggered many of your sell stops. Your current trade management does not allow this to happen and you had to close many trades. You should consider how often you see small pullbacks in an up trend and you should modify your management style to account for them. 

On your charts you mark the observation that price has gone past a recent high (break out). I notice that you buy many days later. Do you think it might be better to buy the break-out or on the very next day after the break-out? What is your reason for buying much later? 

All your charts show a very strong price trend. If you agree that an up trend consists of higher highs and higher lows then you must allow price to make another higher low. This means that your trade management must allow price to pullback and make a higher low.  Your trade mgt style must allow you to get the price movements that you need to reach your objectives. I don't know what these are so all my suggestions are of a general nature.

If you are concerned by the total amount of your losses at this early stage then you need to learn about managing your portfolio heat (total open risk). Including this to the money mgt part of your trading plan will help you manage the number of open trades and keep the amount of open risk within your comfort zone. 

I think you should stop trading or start only a few trades while considering these aspects I've mentioned. 
(i) Entries can be improved. Are you trading break-outs or not?
(ii) Placement of your initial stop loss (size).
(iii) Trade management style, method of your trailing stop once it's above break-even.
(iv) Risk per trade (depends on the size of your initial SL, but also your equal size position sizing model) 
(v) Portfolio heat (total open risk).

I hope you consider my suggestions carefully as I'm trying to be helpful.


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## cynic

At the risk of being off topic, I'd like to offer an insight into the potential impact of word/phrase choice when offering advice.

Please consider the following two examples (i & ii) of the various ways in which similar items of advice might be worded:

(i) When proffering advice one shouldn't be excessive in the use of phrases containing words like "should" or "shouldn't" as their arrogant and dictatorial nature always antagonises the recipient and provokes a dismissive and/or rebellious response. You should never tell the recipient what they must or mustn't do as these terms always come across as judicious and offensive. One must always exercise care in the use of absolute words such as "never" and "always" as failure to do so will result in the creation of inappropriate generalisations.


(ii) When proffering advice it is often helpful to avoid terminology that has the potential to belittle or invalidate a recipient's personal efforts.
Substitution of absolute wording with more amenable alternatives can often result in advice that is more palatable to the recipient. Whereas one might want to use the word "should" one could substitute the word "could", this may result in a greater sense of empowerment on the part of the advice recipient. If one wishes to use words like "always","never" and "will" one might consider substituting softer terms such as "often","seldom" and "may". Instead of phrases like "must do..." one could consider substitution with the phrase "usually do..." (or perhaps "might consider doing...").Such substitutions might serve to reduce the risk of unintended generalisations.  

Which of the above (i & ii) is more dictatorial and arrogant? Which is more likely to antaonise the target audience?  Which has the better chance of being graciously received and considered? 

Whilst contemplating the answers to these questions, one might like to consider how this concept may also have a bearing on one's trading performance.

P.S. Like other posters to this thread, I'm trying to be helpful.


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## Duarte

Duarte said:


> I compared the previous period with the current period, and I came to the conclusion that the S&P500 after reaches its resistance line (key value: 1575) can follow the path 1 or 2, in the first chart.




The two paths remain open as long as the S&P 500 remains below to 1625.

If, over the next two months, the S&P 500 remains below to 1575, I think that the S&P 500 will follow the path 1, but if the S&P500 rises above 1625, I think that the S&P 500 will follow the path 2.

I will continue to evaluate on a monthly basis the possibility of happening one of the paths.


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## Duarte

peter2 and Cynic:

Thank you very much for your comments and good cooperation.

I will attempt to reply to a few of the questions.

I'm not worried because I get stopped out.
I think that I opened too many positions, and because of this, I get stopped out too many times. 
When I started the portfolio I bought DLPH, RWT, EXH, ERX, XIV, UPRO, and EDC.
It would have been better if I only had bought 3 stocks, and not 7. If it were so, I would be stopped out only 3 times, and not 7.

In these particular stocks or ETFs, I have not waited for the breakout, and it wasn't because of this that I bought. This was circumstantial. 

I just started the portfolio a few weeks ago, but this does not mean that I don’t have trading experience.
It will take some time to see the results.

At this moment, I look more closely for the big picture, and as I wrote before, my technical indicators are mixed, so I'll not risk a lot.

I am not in a hurry at all. I remain calm and I trust myself. Stock market trading is a marathon, not a sprint.


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## Duarte

Listed below is one closed trade:


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## Duarte

Here you can see the portfolio update:






I now wait for the next buy signal of my technical indicators.


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## Duarte

The U.S market remains very strong. Looking at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index we note that the S&P 500 is already above the key level of 1575. As I have written before, if it continues above of 1575 in the next two months, that would be very positive in the long term.
However, this period is still one and a half months away.







This week the CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment Index * was displaying very bullish sentiment with 77%bulls. In rather stark contrast the AAII Investor Sentiment (American Association of Individual Investors) ** reflects very bearish sentiment, with 19,30% bulls and 54% bears, which is surprising since historically, when the market trend is up and new highs are being made, the number of bulls tends to increase rather than decrease.


These AAII Investor Sentiment numbers are typically seen at market bottoms, not during price advances. The traditional interpretation of sentiment readings is contrarian, meaning that AAII Investor Sentiment is giving a bullish signal, and also suggests that Investors are trying to guess a top. We can also consider that investor confidence is lower than it ought to be in the context of a rally, but this is not the traditional interpretation of sentiment readings.

In conclusion, the number of bears suggests that the market will rise but my technical indicators for U.S. market still show mixed signals, so I will not put much money in the stock market. I, however, will follow the market developments next week closely and maybe I will buy one or two shares or ETFs.


(* Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the Consensus Inc. (Consensus - National Futures and Financial Investment Newspaper). The CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment of Market Opinion shows the positions and attitudes of professional brokers and advisors. Polling is conducted on Consensus web site with a Thursday cutoff and Friday release. The survey is available on Saturday for free on the Barrons web site at Barron's Market Lab Table - Barrons.com).

(** Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors). Polling is conducted on the AAII web site with a Wednesday cutoff and Thursday release).


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## peter2

Duarte: Good to see you back, I thought we had lost you. While you were away and waiting for your "next buy" signal of your technical indicators, you missed out on the continuation of a very strong trend up. The trend is still up and still strong. I know many indicators are signalling "overbought" and sentiment is looking for a pullback. It's been like this for most of the swing up. Are you trading price, indicators or sentiment? 

My systems primarily depend on the market trend (Up = buy) and the indicators/sentiment tell me how much (indicators overbought and sentiment is uncertain = invest 60 - 80% or start a few shorts in the weak sectors (like gold)). For me the biggest risk when the trend is up and strong (like now) is not being invested and I miss out on the opportunity.

It's good that you are posting your thoughts as you can review them and see what works. You can then use the feedback to improve your system. Indicators (including sentiment numbers) should add to our edge, not distract us from trading.


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## Duarte

Peter2: Easier said than done, isn't it?
I have since several months ago a leveraged long position in the S&P 500 and shows substantial profit.
I also have a long-term market timer portfolio in another forum, but in this portfolio I use the technical indicators in a different manner.
Don't worry. I will not leave the forum
If you like, you can create a topic to share your market signals and then you can use the feedback to improve your system.


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## Duarte

I will buy shares of Kilroy Realty: (NYSE: KRC).


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## Duarte

See annotated chart:


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## Duarte

The following is the current portfolio:


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## cynic

Duarte said:


> ...If you like, you can create a topic to share your market signals and then you can use the feedback to improve your system.




+1

I distinctly recall having offered similar advice to a forthrightly critical poster in another thread. Regretfully said poster chose not to accommodate the suggestion on that occasion. Perhaps this time will be different! (But I won't be holding my breath!)


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## Duarte

The following is the market timer portfolio.


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## Duarte

The following is the market timer portfolio chart.
The chart is updated on a weekly basis.


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## Duarte

Below are the charts along with brief commentary.

The following two monthly charts give a long-term perspective for the S&P 500.

I am going to look again closely for the period between 1967 and 1984, as well as, for the period between 2000 and 2013.
In December 1980, the S&P 500 closed above to its resistance line and then fell for 20 months. For that reason, even if the index closes above to its resistance line, the fall will remain possible. On the other hand, if the index rises above 1625 (above 3,17% of its resistance line), it is more likely to go up rather than down. 
At this time, the two paths remain open but the very bearish sentiment supports the continuation of the rise.
Let's see what happens. This month and next month will be very important to trace the path for long term.


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## Duarte

The following daily chart gives a short-term perspective for the S&P 500.

The rally that began off the November low has been persistent.
In the context of a Bull Market, the 50 day moving average often serves as a support and that is what happened last Friday.
If the index falls below the 50 day moving average, this will be interpreted as a negative signal.


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## Duarte

4 New Buys


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## Duarte

Annotated charts:


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## Duarte

The following is the portfolio:


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## Duarte

Today, I was unable to write it on time.  :-(

4 New Buys and 1 New stop loss order


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## Duarte

Annotated charts:


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## Duarte

Listed below is one closed trade:


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## Duarte

Current portfolio:


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## Duarte

CURE reached the stop loss order yesterday.


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## Duarte

1 New Buy and 1 New stop loss order


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## Duarte

Annotated chart:


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## Duarte

Current portfolio:


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## Duarte

The following is the market timer portfolio:
(The chart is updated on a weekly basis.)


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## Duarte

Below are some annotated charts:


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## Duarte




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## Duarte

Up until now I have adopted a prudent and defensive investment strategy, but now I ´ll search a more aggressive valorization strategy opting for an increased market exposure, in order to catch the benchmark index. At the same time, however, I will take into account the 6-month unfavorable seasonality period, which begins on May 1 and ends on October 31 of the same year, and I will keep my eyes wide open to the possibility of trend reversion in the coming months.


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## Duarte

3 Buys:


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## Duarte

The following table shows the Auxiliary calculations:


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## Duarte

2 Buys for today:


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## Duarte

The following is the market timer portfolio:


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## Duarte

The following daily chart gives a short-term perspective for Apple Inc: (NASD: AAPL)

AAPL rallied since the stock put in a bottom in April 4, 2013. Since then, the stock already climbed 18,32%.
At the moment, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the previous high, and despite the price is still lower than the previous high, 463,53, I think this is a positive sign. Another positive sign is that the exponential moving average 10 green has just crossed with the rise the exponential moving average 50 purple, something that did not happen for a long time.


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## Duarte

The following table shows the Auxiliary calculation:


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## Duarte

The following is the current market timer portfolio:


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## Duarte

2 Buys for today:


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## Duarte

Here is the annotated chart for Nuskin Enterprises Inc: (NYSE: NUS):


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## peter2

I'm pleased to see that your portfolio is looking much better.


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## Duarte

The following table shows the Recently Auxiliary Calculation:






The following is the market timer portfolio update:
(The chart is updated on a weekly basis.)


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## Duarte

The portfolio still remains lower than the benchmark (S&P 500), and is still far from having developed its full potential, but it is now positive. I think more in portfolio result than in trade results. I will buy, sell and adjust the weight of each security in the portfolio on a dynamic basis and over time in the light of the varying market conditions, my goals and perception. 
That said, next week I will possibly make some changes.


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## Duarte

3 New Buys:






Only some time later I will post the annotated charts and update the portfolio.


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## Duarte

Monday last week, I had a computer problem. The hard disk stopped working and I took some time to recover the information. Now things are getting back to normal.

I made two modifications: 
I have changed the calculation of the weighted average price to 3 decimal places. And I stopped provide an approximation of the money used for the trade and started to provide the real money used for the trade. (The money used for the trade is not used for calculating the trade gain or loss.)


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## Duarte

The following table shows the Recently auxiliary calculations:


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## Duarte

The following table shows the Recently Closed Trades:


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## Duarte

The following table shows the Closed Trades:


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## Duarte

The following table shows the Money from dividends:


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## Duarte

The following table shows the portfolio:


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## Duarte

I saw an error with the closed trades table.
The Recently closed trades table showed the quantity of 16 for UGLD, and I just typed 6. -I fixed the error.


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## Duarte

The following table shows the Closed Trades:


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## Duarte

The following table shows the portfolio:


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## Duarte

I will update the stop loss orders.


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## Duarte

The following is the list of recently closed trades:







The following is the list of closed trades:






The following is the list of money from dividends:






The following is the current portfolio:


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## Duarte

The consensus of technical indicators that I utilize is on the sell signal.
I will update the stop loss orders and will buy SQQQ.


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## Duarte

I do not have a clear idea of what is the direction of the market will be. 
I do not know whether I ought go long or short. So, I do both at the same time. 
In a few days time, I will have a better idea of what is happening.

The following is the list of recently closed trades:






The following is the portfolio:






The following is the updating of stop loss orders:






The following is 1 buy:


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## Duarte

The following is the list of the last auxiliary calculations in the U.S.:






The following is the list of the last closed trades in the U.S.:


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## Duarte

I've been hesitant to buy, but now I decided to buy. I will use a small percentage of the portfolio. If market rises, so after I increase the exposure.

8 New Buys:


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## Duarte

The following is the last closed trade in the US:






The following is the portfolio:


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## Duarte

I am going to look to the period between 1967 and 1984, as well as, for the period between 2000 and 2013.
As I have written before now, my guess about what is happening is that the S&P 500 since 2000 is following the path between 1968 and 1984.
At this time the key is to understand if the breakout above the long-term resistance line was or not decisive.
When the breakout is decisive, the resistance level then becomes a support level, but I don ´t know yet whether or not this will happen. My big question is this:  Will red support line hold?


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## Duarte

3 Buys:






The following are the annotated charts:


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## Duarte

9 Buys:


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## Duarte

The following are the auxiliary calculations:







The following is the last closed traded:







The following is the porfolio:


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## Duarte

2 Buys:


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## cbc

Duarte said:


> The following are the auxiliary calculations:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The following is the last closed traded:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The following is the porfolio:




Nice run er Duarte...

Looks like u had some good runs.

Good work,

I'd post my trades but I'v only been trading XOM


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## Duarte

cbc said:


> Nice run er Duarte...
> 
> Looks like u had some good runs.
> 
> Good work,
> 
> I'd post my trades but I'v only been trading XOM




Thanks cbc.

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The following are the auxiliary calculations:






The following is the porfolio:


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## Duarte

I took too much time to buy. For example, I bought EVC for the first time on June 12. Since then, has risen more than 38%, but I bought very few quantities and I took too much time to buy more. I could have done better.

I've been buying and selling with a delay on average of 3 to 4 days when compared with the consensus of the technical indicators that I use. This has influenced the portfolio result because the US market has risen at a very fast rate. I will try to buy and sell more quickly. 
However, I also have a US long term market timer portfolio and the two portfolios complement one another.


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## cbc

Yea fair enough Duarte,

You got 8/10 right so ur picking them well m8,  I wouldn't stress on that

Ur also lucky that u had such a small portion of your portfolio on Rad.

Ur losses were minimal due to this.


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## Duarte

cbc said:


> Yea fair enough Duarte,
> 
> You got 8/10 right so ur picking them well m8,  I wouldn't stress on that
> 
> Ur also lucky that u had such a small portion of your portfolio on Rad.
> 
> Ur losses were minimal due to this.





It was not simply a question of luck. I decide the position size. I have few quantities of SUNE and RAD because for now I don't expect that these stocks will rise a lot.
Generally, I try to buy more when the stocks goes up and I sell when the stocks goes down. But in the case of EVC I was not fast enough. I'm going to try to improve. We will see how things go.


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## cbc

Duarte said:


> It was not simply a question of luck. I decide the position size. I have few quantities of SUNE and RAD because for now I don't expect that these stocks will rise a lot.
> Generally, I try to buy more when the stocks goes up and I sell when the stocks goes down. But in the case of EVC I was not fast enough. I'm going to try to improve. We will see how things go.





Yup,  u hit a nice sweet spot on the us,  just looking at a chart now and it's been a nice run over the last 3 weeks.  People obviously buying in after the correction.

Very good theory to buy when the stocks r going up.  Plain common sense.  Some people get confused with this and try saying to buy on the way down.


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## Duarte

3 Buys:


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## Duarte

The following are the last auxiliary calculations:






The following is the porfolio:


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## Duarte

The following is the porfolio:


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## cbc

Looks like 10 / 10 for me.

Nice work.


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## Duarte

The following is the porfolio:







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The following is the porfolio weekly chart:






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EVC is not going well.
However, I believe that, on the whole, things are going well, but things could get even better.
My goal with a majority of stocks is achieve a return greater than UPRO.
I know that this will be very difficult to achieve, but I am very exigent with myself.
If the market continue to move up and if I can't achieve this then I will change my strategy.


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## Duarte

The following is the porfolio:






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The following is the porfolio weekly chart:






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The portfolio reached yesterday a new annual maximum weekly.
All the trades are having profit results.
I would say that so far, so good.


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## Duarte

I will put stop loss orders in all open positions.
An increased number of technical indicators that I use for short term trading are changing to sell signal and I have more doubts than usual about the future direction of the market in short term.


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## Duarte

I made a mistake when I wrote the stop loss order of EVC, I wrote,7,53, but I wanted to write 5,73.


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## MARKETWINNER

Dividend champions and value stocks will outperform others in 2014.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sorry-haters-unloved-stocks-had-a-great-year-2013-12-26#!
Sorry, haters: Unloved stocks had a great year
Stocks that analysts rated negatively in 2013 did better than the ones they liked

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.


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## Duarte

Today I close this portfolio and I start another US stock market timer portfolio in the forum. I will also start a long term market timer portfolio.


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## Duarte

The following is the closed trades list:


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## Duarte

The following is the porfolio:


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## Duarte

The following is the porfolio weekly chart:


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## Duarte

The goal was to share trading ideas in the forum before being executed and make a good result in the portfolio. I think that the goal has been reached. The result could be better, but considering that I didn ´t trade from 28 October 2013 to 31 January 2014, the result was good. 
I hope I get an even better result by the end of the year in next portfolio.


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## peter2

Good work Duarte. I hope you learned a bit about yourself and your trading system by posting here.


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## Duarte

I will create a new thread with the name “US Intermediate term market timer portfolio”.


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