# Hovnanian (HOV) study



## ducati916 (9 December 2006)

I have a position in this as of today @ $35.69
I won't disclose for the moment if it long or short, I would like some techies to give me their unbiased viewpoint [analysis]

jog on
d998


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## Kauri (9 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> I have a position in this as of today @ $35.69
> I won't disclose for the moment if it long or short, I would like some techies to give me their unbiased viewpoint [analysis]
> 
> jog on
> d998




    What nonsense. What conclusions would you expect to draw from barely 5 months of fundamental data? On second thoughts.......


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## ducati916 (9 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*

Buuuuuut, this is not a fundamental trade, this is a short-term trade based on a couple of factors, and I was simply asking for an opinion, analysis, guess, whatever.

So up or down?
Any levels in this timeframe 3mths, that you feel may be relevant important, correlate to Saturn, anything you like.

I'll reveal my position before the market opens, so no cheating.
jog on
d998


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## Kauri (9 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> Buuuuuut, this is not a fundamental trade, this is a short-term trade based on a couple of factors, and I was simply asking for an opinion, analysis, guess, whatever.
> 
> jog on
> d998




  If it is not a fundamental trade, then could it possibly be a technical trade... surely not.
  I am sure you won't mind my cutting and pasting.....



> Technicals.........total waste of time. Amen.For myself case closed.


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## ducati916 (9 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> If it is not a fundamental trade, then could it possibly be a technical trade... surely not.
> I am sure you won't mind my cutting and pasting.....
> 
> 
> ...




I just love the techies, always jumping to conclusions prior to engaging the old grey matter.

Fact.
Correct, as stated, it is not a Fundamental trade.

But neither did I state that it was a technical trade. The MACD & Bollinger Bands obviously led you to the wrong conclusion.

This is in point of fact a _synthetic arbitrage,_ which really doesn't classify as a technical trade at all, it does however rely on valuation, thus, is closer if you will to a fundamental basis.

jog on
d998


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## Kauri (9 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*

You have just got to love obfuscation, always provides a handy exit.   
   Thanks for the entertainment, and for the bottle of wine my friend now owes me for my predicting your response..   :alcohol:  

   Nyaapa ngaanya katakurra. Nyuntuka kata purlkanya.


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## ducati916 (9 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*

Ya gotta love 'em, techies;



> _Thanks for the entertainment, and for the bottle of wine my friend now owes me for my predicting your response.. _




Absolute geniuses in hindsight trading.
jog on
d998


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## wayneL (9 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*

Lets cut the Duc some slack folks, as a new concept for ASF, this will be interesting.


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## Kauri (9 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*

:band 


   Two bottles...   love you...

   Pampultjarra!!


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## Bobby (9 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> :band
> 
> 
> Two bottles...   love you...
> ...



Thanks for the belly laugh !!


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## yogi-in-oz (9 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*



Hi Duc,

HOV ... some simple analysis, from the chart you have 
supplied, your position is likely to be short, because:

PRICE ACTION

At the recent high, candle count is becoming extreme
at 11, taken from early-November lows.

Using the daily close only, the candle pattern is an
evening star at the recent high, so fall is likely.

Latest two candles have finished on their lows, with
high volume, so likely to be more downside ahead.

---

VOLUME

Increased steadily on rising prices and has maintained
high volumes, as traders have bailed out on the recent
down-days, as well.

---

SUPPORT

Likely to be found at the gap, around 33 on the last upleg.

That 33 level is also a 50% retracement of the most 
recent rally from early-November, making it a critical
level for support, where there's likely to be an ambush
for unwary shorts.

---

OTHER INDICATORS

As Bollinger and MACD are both derived from the price
itself, they are lagging indicators and probably only
useful, as confirmation of our previous analysis (???)

---

TIME CYCLES

Would not be short, after 15122006, as there's a
couple of strong and positive cycles coming into
play, over the next couple of weeks.

     15-18122006 ... positive spotlight on HOV, could
      also bring some very significant long-term changes (?)

     22-27122006 ... more positive news ...???

          02012007 ... difficult aspect here - finances???

          09012007 ... short rally here???

     12-15012007 ... 2 cycles here, may bring news of
                              further difficulties ???

          24012007 ... negative cycle, finance-related???

          30012007 ... further negative news expected

          14022007 ... negative spotlight on HOV

Then, several minor cycles, until a significant and
positive cycle (finances?),  on 13032007. 

More later ..... 

---

In summary, our trading plan for HOV, would 
roughly read:

Short, until 15122006, then reverse.

Go long, until year's end.

Short in the New Year, until 08012007.

Short the next rally, around 12012007, for a long
ride south ... maybe even until, about 12032007, 
then long again.

Hope this helps.

happy days

  yogi



=====


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## rederob (10 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> You have just got to love obfuscation, always provides a handy exit.
> Thanks for the entertainment, and for the bottle of wine my friend now owes me for my predicting your response..   :alcohol:
> 
> Nyaapa ngaanya katakurra. Nyuntuka kata purlkanya.



Drink it around a warm fire.
Wati ngaalu warru ma-tjarrungarrala mantjilkitjalunku mulya pungu. Ngaltjutjara ducati!


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## ducati916 (10 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*

*yogi*

Thank's for taking the time to provide your analysis.
It is always revealing when asking for analysis in public, who the real traders/investors are, and those who talk a lot.

Your analysis agrees with my own in the short time frame that I am looking at, that is over the next 1 to 4 weeks, and that analysis was based on the technicals, specifically MACD & Bollinger Bands.

The position however as stated is a synthetic arbitrage, thus I am neutral and get paid up or down. As this is a synthetic arbitrage, it should be called a RISK arbitrage, as it does carry risk, but it is fixed.

yogi, if you & enzo want the details, PM me, that way I can filter out the peanuts.

*kauri*

2 for 2..........damn you're good. I'm sure you'll be 3 for 3 later, there's no getting round the fact, hindsight traders are destined to be billionaires.

jog on
d998


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## Kauri (10 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> *kauri*
> 
> 2 for 2..........damn you're good. I'm sure you'll be 3 for 3 later, there's no getting round the fact, hindsight traders are destined to be billionaires.
> 
> ...




   There you go making assumptions again. I actually _forecasted_ that your next post would contain both of the words *nonsense* and *peanuts*, so I am 2 from 3.

   Maybe it is the lingering affects of the wine, but I am sure you will be able to explain away this apparent contradiction.



> But neither did I state that it was a technical trade. The MACD & Bollinger Bands obviously led you to the wrong conclusion.







> Your analysis agrees with my own in the short time frame that I am looking at, that is over the next 1 to 4 weeks, and that analysis was based on the technicals, specifically MACD & Bollinger Bands.




   Weya wanti. Watjarnu wantitjaku.


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## Realist (10 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*

I would not short this stock at all.


For the purpose of this experiment I will buy long at 35.69 and hold for 4 weeks.


The odds are in my favour, shorting don't work folks!!


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## wayneL (10 December 2006)

*Re: Hovnanian*



			
				Realist said:
			
		

> I
> shorting don't work folks!!




LOL


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## ducati916 (11 December 2006)

*kauri*



> _Maybe it is the lingering affects of the wine, but I am sure you will be able to explain away this apparent contradiction._




Obviously you have cognitive problems.

The trade is a synthetic arbitrage. That is not a technical trade.
I use this style, precisely because I have no faith in technical analysis, mine included. Therefore, although I included my *technical* analysis to Yogi [due to his time spent in providing his analysis for me] I assign a 50/50 outcome to my analysis based on the technicals.

Technical analysis is a 50/50 proposition. I don't like 50/50.

jog on
d998


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## tech/a (11 December 2006)

> Technical analysis is a 50/50 proposition. I don't like 50/50.




Thats what your getting on your fundamental thread!!!

If you learnt how to turn a profit from less than 50/50 win rate you wouldnt frustrate the hell out of yourself constantly looking for the Holy Grail.


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## ducati916 (11 December 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Thats what your getting on your fundamental thread!!!
> 
> If you learnt how to turn a profit from less than 50/50 win rate you wouldnt frustrate the hell out of yourself constantly looking for the Holy Grail.




Currently that's true.
However, we are not even at 1yr for any of the portfolio, and even less for the later purchases. As to being frustrated, not yet, if it's the same or worse in 2.5yrs, then I might concede frustration.

Besides, technical analysis is not a systems methodology. TT is a systems methodology, it's most certainly not technical analysis.

jog on
d998


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## ducati916 (20 December 2006)

Just a little update on HOV.

Reported earnings at close yesterday after the bell, today gapped down.


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## stoxclimber (20 December 2006)

I suppose this is designed to make fun of the technical traders? If one looks at their history in terms of accurate predictions, the results are quite interesting...

but probably no worse than those who think they are trading on fundamentals when they are falling in love with one stock and holding through a huge fall...


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## ducati916 (22 December 2006)

Strategy and update + 4 other trades are detailed here for any interested;

http://ducati998.wordpress.com/



jog on
d998


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