# HZN - Horizon Oil



## imajica (11 May 2006)

Managed to buy a small parcel of these a few days ago for 38 cents a share. Whats everyone's prediction for the share price over the next few weeks?


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## markrmau (11 May 2006)

With long term oil at about $60-65/barrel I ascribe 40-42c fair value for hzn. Sentiment could see the SP range in area of 35-55c.

I am sorry but I am not willing to discuss how I arrive at these values.


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## coladuna (11 May 2006)

I had a small parcel, which I sold yesterday at a small tidy profit but bought back in today, although I bought it when the price was quite high (46.5c).
I think it'll skyrocket once again when they confirm the amount of oil recoverable at Beibu, which I expect to be significant.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (21 August 2006)

Thinking I might get into these guys tommorrow morning. Anyone else share my optimism on these guys for a quick trade


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## NettAssets (21 August 2006)

I would have liked to see it higher than the open of a couple of days ago.

You are more game than I at catching falling knives.

John


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (21 August 2006)

Just have a feeling about this one, the next few days will see though, also like ARU for tommorrow. 
Think I will have a punt on both. If I'm wrong you can have a laugh at me at weeks end.


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## NettAssets (21 August 2006)

Hope you're laughing

Im tied right up until thursday with options.
just hope LHG can make a few more cents

John


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## BAM (19 September 2006)

Hi all,
The stock is on a downward trend at the moment, but I think when they start producing oil from the recent discoveries offshore China the price will rise. I believe that they are on track for production early next year.
Another good sign is that Roc Oil have a major stake in the wells.
Does anyone have any thoughts about the mid to long-term prospects of Horizon?


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## Sweet Synergy (30 October 2006)

Overall volume confirm hasn't been perfect but looks like this one might be turning around???  Market a bit undecided today but great volume.


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## LifeisShort (1 February 2007)

Looks like this stock has bottomed out according to charts. Oil price has rebound a bit too. Production should be happening in 12 months so I've decided to start accumulating this stock. I like horizon as it has quite an interesting portfolio in NZ, Thailand, China, US......good selection with the pride and joy the Maari field in NZ which they have a stake of 5mbo. Anyone else interested in this one?


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## samson (3 February 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> Looks like this stock has bottomed out according to charts. Oil price has rebound a bit too. Production should be happening in 12 months so I've decided to start accumulating this stock. I like horizon as it has quite an interesting portfolio in NZ, Thailand, China, US......good selection with the pride and joy the Maari field in NZ which they have a stake of 5mbo. Anyone else interested in this one?




Yes mate, tip-toed my way into HZN at 11c about 18 months ago ”” wish I'd kicked the door down getting in now! Heavily diluted but a strong set of assets and appears quality management.  Assuming the POO starts moving back up, we'll see a re-rating in HZN.

Also been following your comments on NWR, have a few oppies there, good minds thinking alike

Cheers


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## LifeisShort (3 February 2007)

Not wrong there. Good to see you have NWR.....have any BMN? Anyway HZN looks like being a nice oil producer in the making.....some really good blocks in  excellent areas and you are spot excellent management. Its a pity that it looks like no exploration this year as company is concentrating on producing in NZ and China. at 200 mil cap I think once production starts should see a rerating and hopefully by that time will see oil price climb a bit.


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## samson (5 February 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> Not wrong there. Good to see you have NWR.....have any BMN? Anyway HZN looks like being a nice oil producer in the making.....some really good blocks in  excellent areas and you are spot excellent management. Its a pity that it looks like no exploration this year as company is concentrating on producing in NZ and China. at 200 mil cap I think once production starts should see a rerating and hopefully by that time will see oil price climb a bit.




No BMN, have been a little skeptical about the U fever and missed some great gains.

No exploration likely for HZN, but should have some news on Lei Dong (potential farmins, seismic re-analysis, etc) and always potential for positive news on the Gulf of Thailand project.  Then there's always the possibility of a takeover....

Cheers


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## LifeisShort (5 February 2007)

Yes the downside is no exploration planned this year but like you said thre might be some other interesting developments. I'll be tracking the NZ progress closely.


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## surfingman (7 February 2007)

The Mauri Bay is set to start up porduction in April 2008 and china having good potential in 2008, Might hold off on a buy these ones for a few months.


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## petervan (28 March 2007)

With oil on the rise this company looks a good buy at the momement.By July they should be producing 50000 barells a day from N.Z grounds and 15000 barells a day from China.ABM-AMRO values them at0.44 cents,directors have bought heavily recently and oil going up.They could have a good week?


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## michael_selway (1 April 2007)

petervan said:


> With oil on the rise this company looks a good buy at the momement.By July they should be producing 50000 barells a day from N.Z grounds and 15000 barells a day from China.ABM-AMRO values them at0.44 cents,directors have bought heavily recently and oil going up.They could have a good week?




Hi do u know what the mine life of HZN is?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -0.3 -0.3 4.1 10.1 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS


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## powerkoala (28 May 2007)

wow, someone just bought 1 M shares, and buyers are stacking up.
is it something going on? 
long time no news for HZN even though oil pricei is moving up.
maybe ann soon?
any thought?


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## michael_selway (28 May 2007)

powerkoala said:


> wow, someone just bought 1 M shares, and buyers are stacking up.
> is it something going on?
> long time no news for HZN even though oil pricei is moving up.
> maybe ann soon?
> any thought?




Powerkoala, do u know if HZN has a limited mine life?

Also AED if you know.

thx

MS

*AED - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -4.2 -11.0 234.6 150.2 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *


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## fonterra (24 January 2008)

Anyone following this stock here?

The project at China seems to be a very genuine with more upside chance than downsides, and that factor doesnt seem to have factored into its sp yet.  With both the partners PSA and ROC already reflected in their higher sp.


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## twosips14 (31 January 2008)

Holding onto this one for a while yet. Looks like a very good prospect for the future. 

Looks to be in a holding pattern for now (between 29c and 35c) though while the market is volatile.


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## Superfly (8 March 2008)

Up 3.5 no news out... drill report on WEI due... should be at depth now... hmmm

( HZN holder )


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## Superfly (16 May 2008)

Up to 0.44 -.45 today.... no news out ... having a nice week...... hope this continues ...


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## BESBS Player (7 August 2009)

Hi all.

Been buying these over the last week as a BESBS (during drilling) play. While I like CUE as a company, I thought that there might be a little better leverege for the punters in HZN given the SP had dipped below CUE for much of this last week. Still a month to see what eventuates as the drill turns. Hoping for a 25% return as the day traders dip in later.

Time will tell...


Holding HZN


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## BESBS Player (25 August 2009)

Still holding on to HZN as the drill bit turns. Would love 25% profit. Getting closer to that level but won't hold to the bottom unless early good news is released...

Holding HZN at 18c


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## shoe crew (25 August 2009)

hey besbs player,
Manaia is a low risk appraisal well that is going to flow around 3000 BOPD...
the fact that Manaia has flowed oil already, although 40 years ago, and that it was drilled on the edge of the structure, means that there is plenty of upside when drilled updip


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## Bonk (29 August 2009)

HZN needs that deal in PNG to work ; should be hearing something now ? If it falls over , so will the hZZZZZZZn price


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## shoe crew (30 August 2009)

Hey Bonk,
HZN doesnt need the deal,
not on those terms anyway...
I worked out the pricing of the deal, and it comes to about $1 dollar per barrel (BOE) that P3GE are paying... very very cheap...
paying 55million US for billion dollar assets...
now if the deal is off HZN would fall abit, but HZN have a whole heap of support from Maari, and Manaia looking very good...
inground valuations are far too low, compared to the much higher valuations at production stage...


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## BESBS Player (4 September 2009)

Latest ASX announcement today. So far so good - hydrocarbons as expected. Now the interesting part of the drilling starts...next 1000m shall tell the story.


Holding HZN at 18c


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## JeSSica WaBBit (5 September 2009)

Hi BESBS,

just curious, is this a BESBS play for you?

If so, does the presence of hydrocarbons change your BESBS theory and do you hold until they results are announced or does this just mean you hold for a longer time closer to spud because things are swinging in the favour of hydrocarbons and a positive result but still sell before spud?

Would like some feedback on this so i can get into your head to try and understand how you do the BESBS thing and what influences you. I have seen a few posts of yours and understand you know your stuff so hopefully i can learn something from this.

HZN holders, hope this is an OK question to ask here and although it is tied to BESBS it is also aligned with this particular drill so worth asking i think.

JW


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## BESBS Player (8 September 2009)

Hi JW,

Good questions.
Initially I entered into HZN as a BESBS play but like many of the longer drillings (ie. 30 days +), any SP run tends to occur mid way down once we get closer to results and the punters know that mechanical failure is less likely (or at least it has been free of mechanical breakdowns to that point). HZN fits this model.

In this case, HZN is also an appraisal well, so the odds of success are higher than the usual 10% wildcat strike rate (although some parts of the GoM and Cooper Basin are better than 10%). With this in mind, I waited hoping for early hydrocarbon shows.

At this stage, I am still in HZN.

I'll be watching now for further positive drilling news soon. If no news and we start to get towards TD, I'll jump out quickly as I hate to make a loss and this is already higher risk than my usual plays. By the time I get out, I'll probably drop 20% of my profit but given I am set at 18c, there is a buffer to protect my capital. If the good news does occur shortly, I'll be still in and cash in...

Not sure if this helps. 


Cheers,
BESBS


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## BESBS Player (14 September 2009)

Decided to jump ship from HZN...finished today. 

Given that testing has been delayed for a few weeks, I decided to take the profits and move the cash to OEX. While I still like HZN and might re-appear in a few weeks, I'm happy to punt that a sudden rise in the OEX SP as a BESBS play is more likely in the next 4 weeks (immediate time frame) than HZN rocketing now that the testing is slightly delayed. 

Good luck to all holders. No reason why HZN still can't motor along once testing resumes...

Bought HZN at 18c, out at 25.5 ave.  (35% profit)


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## subi1 (14 September 2009)

BESBS Player said:


> Decided to jump ship from HZN...finished today.
> 
> Given that testing has been delayed for a few weeks, I decided to take the profits and move the cash to OEX. While I still like HZN and might re-appear in a few weeks, I'm happy to punt that a sudden rise in the OEX SP as a BESBS play is more likely in the next 4 weeks (immediate time frame) than HZN rocketing now that the testing is slightly delayed.
> 
> ...




There is also meant to be an announcement this week about their PNG project which could provide stimulus if they get a good deal.


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## munga (15 September 2009)

subi1 said:


> There is also meant to be an announcement this week about their PNG project which could provide stimulus if they get a good deal.




ann out today it eqates to over 5c per share surprised it hasent moved.
must of been factored in


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## budgy (16 September 2009)

Hello everyone,
For those of you  not aware euroz securities released an updated research paper yesterday on HZN.
In it they subscribed an immediate value of 37c and a short term target of 47c on confirmation of mainia and m2a wells in new zealand.Today the stock closed at 28.5c with a high of 29c.It is not hard to see that a considerable gain short term could be made on this stock.
Disclosure; i own this stock
Please do your own research and seek professional advice and buy at your own risk
Good luck


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## Miner (16 September 2009)

budgy said:


> Hello everyone,
> For those of you  not aware euroz securities released an updated research paper yesterday on HZN.
> In it they subscribed an immediate value of 37c and a short term target of 47c on confirmation of mainia and m2a wells in new zealand.Today the stock closed at 28.5c with a high of 29c.It is not hard to see that a considerable gain short term could be made on this stock.
> Disclosure; i own this stock
> ...



Congratulations Budgy for your maiden posting.

Could you attach the research report from Euroz ?
I noticed on 4th Sept Bell Potter also stated CVN as buy. They turned around from Sell to Buy in three weeks time. 
THis time I followed their advice at 180 degree. So when  they said buy I sold CVN 

Disclaimer DNH


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## Miner (17 September 2009)

budgy said:


> Hello everyone,
> For those of you  not aware euroz securities released an updated research paper yesterday on HZN.
> In it they subscribed an immediate value of 37c and a short term target of 47c on confirmation of mainia and m2a wells in new zealand.Today the stock closed at 28.5c with a high of 29c.It is not hard to see that a considerable gain short term could be made on this stock.
> Disclosure; i own this stock
> ...



Congratulations Budgy for your maiden posting.

Could you please attach the research report from Euroz ?
I noticed on 4th Sept Bell Potter also stated CVN as buy. They turned around from Sell (4 Aug 09) to Buy on 4 Sept 09. 
You call it as a research by a host of experts (i call idiots) and with so many financial modelling, research - all rubbish

This time I followed their advice at 180 degree. So when  they said buy I sold CVN 

Disclaimer DNH


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## munga (18 September 2009)

sold out today (28.5c) just feel running to hot
plus lack of ann in near term if right will jump back in around 25/26c


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## random (23 September 2009)

I came across a little info on HZN in an ABM Amro report - speculative with high exposure to oil price it says.

Didn't really say very much but did a little research and liked what i found so bought in on 9 Sept.

So far so good and am quietly confident of its short to mid term future. Good cash flow coming up and costs under control - all in all i like it.

I know some of you have made a nice profit earlier and got out (understandably) but i can't see any reason for bailing out other than pocketing a real tangible profit and not risking losing it.

Im on this train for a little while i think - looking good.


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## Atlas79 (23 September 2009)

I'm on this one, got in about a year ago (fortunate timing indeed.) 

Enormous volume of shares were traded last Friday.


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## magnale (20 October 2009)

And again to-day an enormous number of shares traded ; perhaps to-wards 0.40 cents  in the next few days ..anyone have any thoughts ?


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## munga (20 October 2009)

research from euroz
Australian Equities Research

________________________________________
Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN $0.32) – Buy

________________________________________

Price Target: $0.49

Reason for Update: NZ Appraisal Drilling & Company Update

What We Know:
HZN has announced that a reservoir section of 1524m was penetrated with an approximate net-to-gross of 60-70% at the Manaia appraisal well. 
Drilling logs plus gas-ratio analyses confirm the presence of hydrocarbons throughout the net reservoir sands. 
Pre-drill estimates indicate that the main reservoir at Manaia contains 58mmbbls of oil in place (OIP).
Operator OMV has indicated that it intends to complete the Manaia well as a producer.  
Flow-rates and revised volumetrics will be assessed post the completion phase, in the coming weeks.  
In place volumes of 35mmbbls estimated for the M2A zone.  The M2A appraisal well will also be completed as a producer; flow rates and volumetrics are expected in the next two weeks.
HZN has announced sale of 50% of its interest in PRL4 (Stanley field) to Talisman (TSX listed E&P) for US$60m, comprising: US$30m cash paid Sept 14 and two tranches of US$8m and US$22m to be applied to development at either/both PRL4 and PRL5.
Talisman has also taken a 50% interest in PRL5 (Elevela-Ketu field) by securing STO’s interest for the US$20m consideration offered originally by P3GE. As a result, HZN’s PRL5 interest has increased to 50%.
An appraisal development drilling campaign for PNG is expected to commence in the Mar Q. 
FID for China (Beibu Gulf) is anticipated for mid FY’10.  
HZN has cash of US$33m and debt of US$36m as a Sept 30.
What We Think:
Success at Manaia and M2A warrants an increase to our total Maari valuation based upon our estimated increase to recoverable reserves to ~85mmbbls.  
In addition, we assume that plateau production of 35kbbls/day is sustainable to 2013 given the horizontal completions (C/F vertical used at Tui) used in the development.
We have also adjusted our cash and debt to reflect HZN’s net debt position of US$3m as at Sept 30.
Our resulting valuation has improved to A$0.39/sh.  Our price target has also improved as a result to A$0.49/sh based upon the upside we view for HZN’s gas interests at PNG.
Our recent upgrade to our PNG nominal valuation reflects the US$140m implied by the recent Talisman transaction (US$60m in cash for 50% of Stanley, valuing HZN’s retained 50% at US$60m, plus the US$20m implied value of HZN’s 50% interest at Elevala-Ketu based upon the US$20m paid to STO by Talisman).
We view that the PNG sale largely values the short-term condensate potential.  In addition, Talisman’s recent dealings in PNG (Rift Oil for US$177m and NGE) is part of a broader gas aggregation play to improve the economic viability of their proposed Pandora LNG development and/or to participate in future trains at Exxon’s PNG-LNG development.
As such, tremendous upside can be seen crystallising from the gas at Stanley and Elevala-Ketu in the medium term. Using an in-ground price of US$0.25/GJ (broadly in-line with the implied transaction value paid for Rift Oil) for HZN’s independently certified resources, equates to ~A$110m to HZN or $0.10/sh upside to our valuation, underpinning our price target.
We see upside of a further $0.10/sh to our valuation and price target from both Maari and China in the short-term.  We believe that the successful development of M2A and Manaia will encourage the Maari JV to consider debottlenecking facilities to increase production by at least 5kbopd. This would add a further A$0.05/sh to our valuation.
Similarly, FID for Beibu Gulf (HZN 14.7%) will de-risk the project (currently we apply a 50% discount to our NPV). This will increase our valuation by US$50m (A$0.05/sh).
Investment Case
HZN remains the most compelling small oil exposure on the ASX, with a strong underlying cashflow to fund an clearly defined, achievable growth strategy.  Management continues to execute operationally and corporately to deliver value to shareholders, the PNG transaction no exception.  We retain our Buy recommendation with a $0.49/sh price target.  

HZN’s Maari asset continues to build as a cornerstone asset that offers strong, stable, long-term cash flow to leverage growth potential of the remainder of its portfolio.   In addition, we believe that the Maari development has the capacity to add further upside via increased plateau production rates.  Additional catalysts and increases to valuation exist with impending FID at China and crystallization of value from HZN’s material gas resource at PNG.


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## tinhat (22 March 2012)

The market is repricing HZN based on a couple of factors. The Mitsubishi stake in the PNG prospects is another sign that the pieces of the puzzle are coming together to start developing these prospects and puts a look through price on these assets that showed the market cap of HZN was too low. The upgrade of the estimate of the resource at PRL 21. The current (cyclical?) rise in oil prices is no doubt helping push the whole sector along.

My short term, low end target is for $0.42 but I think the potential is much greater than that over the next couple of years. Yet this is a volatile stock and is better suited to trading in and out of over the cycles.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=28837999-9697-21ED-364287B239DFC3AA


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## Bonk (24 March 2012)

Yes this has been hard even for oil analysts , and in the past week they have admitted that the game is coming together to make sense . Strachan used a header "Horizon of GAS" as he realised the PNG game . By mid April they hope to have more of the game in PNG . The majors are now with it ! This is important .

HZN is looking much better after this week , and can only move on to increase value . 

1. China .... progressing ;oil product 9 months away

2.  NZ ....... More action in NZ Nov 2012 ; drilling reserves

3.  PNG ..... "Horizon" of Gas/Liquids .

Now , the analysts are to play catch-up as so much is happening , most will wait till a result from Ketu-2 well ! A couple have put out new numbers this week , Macquarie Equities =55c ; Stockanalysis =65c .

Late April 2012 will see 5-6 more reworked numbers as all catch-up with the "game".

I hold HZN , I personally see a good game played through to Feb/Mar2013 in areas 1. 2. & 3. above ....


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## tinhat (1 May 2012)

Weak quarterly production figures just in for the Maari field continuing a long stretch of troubles with these wells. That said, the latest forecast EPS figures I have (Reuters Thompson 27/4/12) are still too low IMHO. The market capitalisation is still too low IMHO. Market doesn't seem phased by the lower production, probably concentrating on the promising progress of the Chinese field and of the prospects for production to commence at the Stanley field in the medium term.

These little producers can be quite frustrating to hold. HZN is the twin to MML in my portfolio. Both full of promise, but yet to live up to their potential.


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## tinhat (10 October 2012)

ROC have found oil in the first of three exploratory drills they are conducting in the Beibu Gulf resource and it will be added into the current Beibu Gulf development project.


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## tinhat (30 November 2012)

HZN is hitting resistance at 44c.

Very interesting comments in the chairman's address to the AGM:



> Over the last 3 years we have realised a total of US$55 million in pre-tax profits
> from the sale of part of the Company’s PNG assets, in the process of managing
> our current interests in PRLs 4 and 21 down to 50% and 45% respectively.  This is
> an example of success arising from continual review and tailoring of Horizon
> ...




The true value of HZNs assets have been crystallising over the past year or so. First there was Mitsubishi buying an interest in PRL4 and PRL 21 which gave a look-through valuation of HZN's share of those assets of $330m and raised the prospects of seeing the fields going into development. This raised the issue of HZN needing to take on debt should the development go ahead. The chairman's comments above though, suggest that HZN are keen to sell further interest in order to see the development go ahead but at acceptable risk and gearing ratios for HZN. I think this is a great strategy for shareholders. It will realise some of the value in these assets, which, IMHO, have been completely discounted out of the share price! So, relative to the current share price, this would represent a windfall for investors, especially if it ends up being paid out which is the direction HZN is heading in - returning excess earnings to shareholders. In the current economics, a medium sized LNG processing plant should be feasible to exploit production in this area which is described as the "PNG sweet spot".

The current price appreciation has also come on the back of the recent discoveries of substantial additional resources in Beibu Gulf which will be exploited as part of the current development project.

It is tempting to sell at 44c but I don't think the market has caught up yet with the true value of HZNs assets.


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## PinguPingu (3 December 2012)

52week high today on decent volume so far, analyst mean of 0.51, good assets, it is tempting to buy


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## tinhat (27 May 2013)

Does anyone have an opinion on the deal with Osaka Gas Co? Seems like a good deal to me on first glance. If the look-through value of Horizon's share of PRL4 and PRL21 based on the Mitsubishi deal was around $330m then selling 40% of that stake (with the more recent exploration leases thrown in) for $204m seems like a good deal on the surface.

I don't currently hold HZN.


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## rcm617 (27 May 2013)

Looks pretty good to me and gives a look through value of $500m.
Market doesn't seem to have liked the fact that it is predicated on HZN being granted the Stanley Development license and the second payment being paid once a FID is made on a LNG project.


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## Bonk (29 June 2013)

The Osaka deal needs more info , probably why the Market is shy .  Expect more clarification on matters of obligation and confidentiality in coming 2 weeks.


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## tinhat (29 June 2013)

Bonk said:


> The Osaka deal needs more info , probably why the Market is shy .  Expect more clarification on matters of obligation and confidentiality in coming 2 weeks.




I don't hold HZN at the moment but i have had some success with it over the past couple of years. Let us know when you hear anything


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## Bonk (18 August 2013)

A lot has happened lately . No more info on the Osaka factor . Ofcourse this is a lot better than people know . I am happy to embrace it . HZN has done a CR and retail part is currently open . The Institutional side was fast , and lately it has been revealed the big interest taken on by the Commonwealth Bank. The market just doesn't get it . Sentiment will change next months and we wont have todays values. Lots happening so refer ASXann. for detail 

Increased my holdings by 20% last week


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## tinhat (2 October 2013)

Well HZN is certainly a share that has taught me that the share market can certainly disappoint a fundamental analyst or "value" investor. I've been in and out of this stock based on the price action but also with a conviction that this company is a good investment. That's how I do 80% of my stock buying these days - only invest in companies which have decent fundamentals but time entry and exit based on the price action around the perceived value.

Currently I hold HZN and I have found the price action in the past month, and especially yesterday, leading up to today's announcement as quite interesting. The beginning of the month saw big turn-over that pulled the price back down into a tight range through September (quite unusual for this stock). [edit to add that I forgot they did a capital raising]. Yesterday the price really dropped prior to today's announcement of drilling results and a big lift.

Maybe I'm being too cynical. The price of oil has been steadily dropping of late. It does seem, looking at the chart, for whatever reason, that the price has been in an accumulation phase until today's price action.


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## So_Cynical (3 October 2013)

The recent capital raising would of weakened the SP, often the SP will trade at around the issue price soon after and can stick around at that level for quite a while...i had a 'look' at Horizon for the first time today and subsequently have added it to a watchlist...some potential.


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## Flipper (13 November 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> The recent capital raising would of weakened the SP, often the SP will trade at around the issue price soon after and can stick around at that level for quite a while...i had a 'look' at Horizon for the first time today and subsequently have added it to a watchlist...some potential.




Just wondering what people think of the below announcement? So_Cynical are you still casting your eye over this one?

HORIZON OIL (HZN) ADVISES STRONG GAS FLOWS DURING PRODUCTION TESTING 
OF KETU-2 APPRAISAL WELL IN PRL 21, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 


Horizon Oil advises that it has recorded strong gas/condensate flows during production 
testing of Ketu-2 appraisal well in PRL 21, PNG. The flow test has confirmed the high 
deliverability of the Elevala sandstone reservoir and also that the condensate gas ratio 
(CGR) is consistent with that of the nearby Elevala and Tingu accumulations (see map 
below). 

Ketu-2 was drilled in the first half of 2012 and successfully appraised the lateral extent of the 
Ketu-1 discovery well at a location 8.9 km southeast of Ketu-1. Ketu-2 was completed for 
future service as a production or gas re-injection well with a 5-1/2" completion string and a 
Xmas tree installed on the wellhead. The lower 9 m of the Elevala sandstone was perforated 
and flowed gas at a rate of over 20 million cubic feet of gas per day (mmcfd) through a 
48/64" choke, with an undetermined rate of condensate. A retrievable plug was set and the 
well suspended in May 2012, until required for further testing and service. 

After the recent flow testing of the Tingu-1 discovery well, announced on 28 October 2013, 
the test unit and separator were moved to the Ketu-2 site and test operations began on 
2 November 2013. Meanwhile Parker Rig 226 is being moved to the Stanley site in PRL 4, in 
preparation for drilling of the Stanley-3 and -5 development wells. The rig is about 65% 
rigged down at Tingu-1. 

During the comprehensive multi-rate test sequence, the well flowed gas consistently at rates 
of 35 - 40 mmcfd through a 56/64" choke, with no produced water and minimal CO2 and H2S. 
The CGR stabilized at a rate of 50-60 barrels of condensate per million cubic feet of gas, in 
line with the Elevala and Tingu accumulations and about double that of the Stanley field 
CGR. The test has confirmed the good flow properties of the Elevala sandstone reservoir at 
this location. 

The current operation is to set retrievable plugs, pressure test and safely suspend the well 
for future use before rigging down the test equipment. 

The production test data for Ketu-2, as well as analysis of fluid samples acquired during 
testing, will be included with all the other information obtained on the Elevala, Ketu and Tingu 
hydrocarbon accumulations and utilised in the FEED study, which is currently underway. 
The intention is to submit a development licence application in March 2014 for a combined 
development of the PRL 21 fields, which will be of considerable scale.


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## pixel (22 November 2013)

Hi Flipper,

I let others interpret the announcements and utterings from various analysts; the Market will usually integrate all the pros and cons and arrive at a consensus price where buyers and sellers meet.

Currently, it seems that buyers have returned and sellers demand more than a few days ago. 
Yesterday, my chart suggested support may have been established and the fall arrested; therefore, I started buying a small starter pack and added a few more today.


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## Garpal Gumnut (22 November 2013)

pixel, that is a brave call, I like the phrase "starter pack ".

gg


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## tinhat (22 November 2013)

pixel said:


> Hi Flipper,
> 
> Currently, it seems that buyers have returned and sellers demand more than a few days ago.
> Yesterday, my chart suggested support may have been established and the fall arrested; therefore, I started buying a small starter pack and added a few more today.




Pixel, the HZN price for weeks was unusually narrow and it looked like it was winding up for a break either way. I hold HZN. I believe that this company has been fundamentally undervalued by the market the past couple of years but because it's share price and the underlying oil price vary so much I have traded into and out of it. I hold at the moment but...

My question to you, as a T/A is what weight do you give to the underlying commodity when looking at a company like HZN? Do you think that the oild price has bottomed out for the time being?


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## prawn_86 (22 November 2013)

tinhat said:


> My question to you, as a T/A is what weight do you give to the underlying commodity when looking at a company like HZN? Do you think that the oild price has bottomed out for the time being?




TA essentially reflects supply and demand, so the underlying commodity (oil) is already factored into the price movements


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## piggybank (13 December 2013)

Company Secretary Appointment/Resignation - http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=HZN&E=ASX&N=773785


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## tinhat (14 April 2014)

PNG government gives approval for Stanley project at last! From what I have been reading around the place it looks like the PNG government is quite keen to get the whole Western Province LNG project going (which Stanley will also supply in the long run). the cash from the Osaka deal now becomes due too. I've done OK trading in and out of HZN over the past few years but I held all the way through the last dip while other holders obviously lost patience over the PNG license. Now I have to hope that the market will wake up and catch up to the new fundamentals of HZN.


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## rcm617 (14 April 2014)

tinhat said:


> PNG government gives approval for Stanley project at last! From what I have been reading around the place it looks like the PNG government is quite keen to get the whole Western Province LNG project going (which Stanley will also supply in the long run). the cash from the Osaka deal now becomes due too. I've done OK trading in and out of HZN over the past few years but I held all the way through the last dip while other holders obviously lost patience over the PNG license. Now I have to hope that the market will wake up and catch up to the new fundamentals of HZN.




I thought it was most likely the uncertainty over the license that was holding back the share price, however this news has hardly caused a blip.
Probably a lot of stale holders getting out at the moment, so might see a steady rise over the next few weeks. Quarterly might give it a bit of a boost with full production from Beibu and Maari back on line.


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## tinhat (23 April 2014)

HZN up 10% today.

I don't subscribe to AFR but this is the headline:


> *Horizon Oil in possible takeover*
> Oil and gas junior Horizon Oil has caught the eye of a suitor, with the company understood to be in takeover discussions. Sources say an announcement is possible this week.




I'd be quite disappointed if the board recommends any offer less than 55c but I'd probably take anything down to 50c as a bird in the hand. 60 would be fair. The license to start production is waiting for the official ceremony and the talk is that an agreement to supply of Ok Tedi is a done deal as it was a prerequisite of the production license from the PNG government. Supplying Ok Tedi will mean gas sales from the get go rather than having to reinject all the gas back into the well.


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## DB008 (25 April 2014)

*Horizon Oil, Roc Oil halted on takeover talk*



> Oil and gas junior Horizon Oil and potential suitor Roc Oil Company have both entered a trading halt following rumours of a takeover bid. Both companies cited a potential transaction as the reason to halt trade.




http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/horizon_oil_roc_oil_halted_on_takeover_RpMSNWmIrvyXffD5aj2WrL

I purchased too early. Timing is everything, l'm only up 4.9%...


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## skc (29 April 2014)

DB008 said:


> *Horizon Oil, Roc Oil halted on takeover talk*
> 
> 
> 
> ...




May I propose...

WORST. MERGER. ANNOUCEMENT. EVER.

Actually it's probably not that bad strategically. But shareholders in HZN have probably built up some nice expectations over the weekend... and instead see HZN fall by 10%.


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## VSntchr (29 April 2014)

skc said:


> May I propose...
> 
> WORST. MERGER. ANNOUCEMENT. EVER.
> 
> Actually it's probably not that bad strategically. But shareholders in HZN have probably built up some nice expectations over the weekend... and instead see HZN fall by 10%.




Lol SKC, couldn't help but link this:


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## skc (29 April 2014)

VSntchr said:


> Lol SKC, couldn't help but link this:





Lol. I had the same thought in mind, although it was on an episode where the Comic book guy had an episode of heart attack.


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## samgribbles (29 April 2014)

Disappointed.  HZN has far more near to mid term upside than ROC with HZN looking at some significant cash inflows in the pipeline.

If I wanted risk diversification I would do that within my portfolio.  I am in HZN for HZN prospects.

Late June for the Independent Expert's Report???

Lets hope the broker analysts pull the deal apart.  

I note though that sometimes in these kind of mergers that the respective Boards may have already sounded out the thoughts of major shareholders.

Looking forward to tomorrow's AFR.

Grrr


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## tinhat (30 April 2014)

After the initial disappointment that the news was not a take over offer for cash as might have been speculated, volume traded today was the highest since 01/06/2010 (as far as I can tell looking back over my chart).

That an arbitrage has opened up between ROC and HZN since the announcement might be because the market has decided that HZN's PNG gas interests might be the more attractive assets in the medium/long term and/or that there is more chance of a competing take over offer for HZN coming from an other party, or is simply a repricing of risk over the Stanley development project given that ROC will now be able to provide much of the financial and soft capital required for the development with much less dilution than farming out would require (especially if you consider that the PNG assets have barley been priced into the share price in recent times.


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## tinhat (25 June 2014)

If the fall in the share price today was because of the mystery "confidential, unsolicited, indicative and incomplete [takeover] proposal" received by ROC, then it seems to be a complete over-reaction by whoever was selling. With or without the merger with ROC, HZN has a positive future in the PNG Stanley project, albeit with a degree of project and sovereign risk. 

Thomson consensus forecasts for EPS are 3.3c for 2015 and 4.1c for 2016.

I bought a few more today and will sell if there is a bounce tomorrow as i am already long.


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## tinhat (4 August 2014)

Looks like the marriage has been called off. ROC oil has recommended the takeover offer from Fosun International Limited. Share price down 6.8% today on the news. I wonder if there will be any takeover interest in HZN.


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## pixel (29 September 2014)

Around midday, I revved up my usual scan and got HZN as a result.
For a moment, I wondered if I should start buying at 31c, but that was quickly overtaken by 31.5 being bid: there was one particular buy order for some 83,650 (from memory). Shortly after I had added a starter bid of my own, I looked again and found the 83k buy order had been pulled and reentered BELOW mine. That happened several times when other smaller bids came in below ... and made me think: What if this dude simply wants to create* the impression *of strong demand, but isn't really interested in buying at 31.5c? What could be the motive for such a ruse, other than possibly the intention to sell one or two ticks higher? 
So I pulled my buy order and waited...

Check the chart: Once buyers stopped eating into the 32c offers, trades retreated and closed at 31c.




Now we still have a Trinity signal underneath, but a Shooting Star candle that suggests 32c is the likely Primary Resistance and we'll see a pullback towards 29c or lower. Until I find proof of buying support and subsequent reversal, I'll let others do the buying.


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## pixel (8 October 2014)

I'm back on with a small position.
In spite of a falling Crude Oil price, today's announcement was met with a positive response.
Momentum has turned up again, respecting the Bullish Divergence trendline.




Stop Loss at 29c; a drop below that level would invalidate the entry signal.
First target 32c; if it breaks, 34c is next.


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## piggybank (20 November 2014)

Falling knife - stand clear


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## tinhat (31 October 2015)

I was going to enter HZN in the November stock tipping comp but decided to back CAJ instead. I had already written up a brief rationale so here it is:

HZN - Horizon Oil please.

This stock has regained investor confidence on the back of a decent quarterly report. Fortunately, they hedged a large value of sales to a favourable price which has helped them generate enough cash flow to buy back $20 of the convertible bonds which mature next year. Improved production at their NZ and China oil wells indicates they will have sufficient cash flow to buy up the convertible bonds. Optimism is growing for their PNG assets as there is a strong business case of demand in western PNG for this gas if they develop production and the agreed sale of 40% of these assets to Osaka Gas provides certainty around funding.

Having recovered from an August low of $0.65 up to $0.12 though - this stock might well take a breather and sit at the $0.12 support level for a while, especially given the current price of oil.


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## tinhat (31 October 2018)

HZN is my pick for the November stock picking competition. The short explanation for picking Horizon Oil is based on speculation that something big gets announced regarding the proposed Western LNG project at November's APEC meeting in Port Moresby. Horizon Oil own a stake in each of the on-land LNG prospects that are proposed to form the Western LNG project.

PNG LNG has been the long frustrated strategic focus of HZN for years. The company got into some trouble when a whole heap of redeemable bonds matured and had to be repaid right when the price of oil fell over the cliff. HZN had tried to pull a rabbit out of the hat through a proposed merger with the more cash laden ROC oil but a ROC shareholder revolt and a successful unsolicited takeover offer from a rival bidder killed off that lifeline. HZN subsequently had to raise the money to fund the buy-out of the maturing bond holders through a mix of a capital raising and subordinated convertible debt borrowing from IMC. This saw HZN shares fall from 46c in 2014 down to a low of around 3.7 cents in 2016 while the CEO maintained what some shareholders considered an overly generous salary during a period of duress.

From time to time, including more recently, there has been a bit of argy bargy between the PNG government and the Western LNG license owners, quite a lot of changing of hands and interests in the ownership of the fields and the PNG government have threatened to cancel licenses to try and get the project moving. Earlier this year, Repsol, the major partner in the gas fields, who some accuse of dragging the chain in getting the development up, sold out to the Chinese Changcheng Group. More recently the PNG Government appear to have become more focused on the Western LNG project.

The economics of the project have also improved with the recovery in oil prices because some of the LNG fields contain a high amount of condensate which might be able to be economically stripped and shipped prior to the major capital investment required to development gas pipelines aggregating the fields to feed a floating LNG plant.

Additionally, through a deal in which it sold part of its stake in Western LNG to Osaka Gas back 2013, Osaka is due make a payment of US$130m to HZN upon an investment decision being finalised.

HZN is also a junior partner in producing off shore oil fields in New Zealand and China which are performing well allowing HZN to substantially pay down debt, especially the convertible debt to IMC averting the worst case scenario of the other shareholders getting diluted through IMC converting the debt to equity.

I've been following and trading into and out of HZN for a few years. I'm not a fan-boy of off-shire oil extraction or a fossil fuel based future, but Western LNG could be a major economic development for the western provinces of PNG where many people live without electricity. It is quite possible that some of the Western LNG production will be used for electricity generation for western PNG.


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## debtfree (14 June 2021)

It's been a little while since the last post so a quick chart update below. It seems to be over it's pullback in 2020 and now heading in the right direction with a bit more volume.


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## bux2000 (4 October 2021)

So it looks like I am the lucky one to kick it off and thanks Tech for the learning opportunity and how better to learn than with a bit of skin in the game.

I apologise in advance if the chart doesn't look that flash.

Bought 10,000 shares at .098c = $980
Stop loss at 10,000 shares at .094c = $940
= $ 40 Potential loss + brokers fee

HZN came up on a scan indicating unusual volumes.

Thanks

bux

Attachments​





HZN Chart.png
11.1 KB · Views: 9


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## tech/a (5 October 2021)

Thanks for the chart bux 
I see the logic in taking the position and also the
logic in the stop position.

But I also see some risks. Could you expand on Why 
you took the trade , placed the stop where it is AND 
any risks or comments on the chart you think should
be or were considered in the process of taking the
trade. Or anyone else care to add?


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## bux2000 (5 October 2021)

Hi Tech here goes,

Background

I have been holding a small amount of ATS since my initial purchase 28/03/2020 @ .012c added to 31/03/2020 @ .014c and again 16/06/2020 @.033c.
I also hold CVN which I entered 1/09/2020 @ .195c

I have also taken a position in COE recently 30/09/2020 @ .26c    a position to backup my October stock .........I just hope it doesn't now come under the spell of the dreaded "commentators curse" 

All these charts appear to be looking similar enjoying a recent uplift so it seemed logical to look for another opportunity within that sector.

Because I am not skilled enough to have developed a trading system, this leads me to ask is it better to take one larger position within a sector or spread the risk within that sector? Obviously one position is easier to manage.

To this trade

I took this position after seeing HZN appeared to be lagging behind similar Companies in the sector as outlined above but shaping up to be a similar chart.

I accessed the risk for this trade as low (acceptable) with an entry at .098c and an exit with a stop loss set at .094c

I should add I set the Stop loss at  .094c and not .095 the upper support level, because I have been taken out of trades previously when the trade bounces of that support. I hope that makes sense.

I would certainly appreciate any feedback and always appreciate the help I am given.  Also I certainly didn't include any of my positions above to gloat but only to give a background for my reasoning.

Thanks

bux


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## qldfrog (5 October 2021)

That is an interesting trade gentlemen.
I am also interested in the key decision used to enter and set these milestone prices
FWIW, i do not have your clues, and do mostly systematic trading.
HZN was bought yesterday via my systems so statistically a potential good entry per my criteria..as did quite a few *energy* sector players.
In the sea of red we have in NY this early morning, oil is up 2% so not too bad a choice it seems now...


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## qldfrog (5 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> That is an interesting trade gentlemen.
> I am also interested in the key decision used to enter and set these milestone prices
> FWIW, i do not have your clues, and do mostly systematic trading.
> HZN was bought yesterday via my systems so statistically a potential good entry per my criteria..as did quite a few *energy* sector players.
> In the sea of red we have in NY this early morning, oil is up 2% so not too bad a choice it seems now...



My post left before i could read @bux2000 answer.thanks for the details:makes sense.why not trying a trailing stop loss or is it too volatile?
On these shares,SL are often just dream wishes


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## bux2000 (5 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> On these shares,SL are often just dream wishes




So true and so quickly through the stop without triggering the SL

My very simple methodology of keeping trades that become positive and selling those that become losses or showing only small gains, has worked  .......*SO FAR *......for me, although now some 200+ trades later I have a portfolio that shows not much annual taxable profit but some good Capital Gain.

After thinking through what @tech/a has been saying you can perhaps have both and that is starting to make sense too.

bux


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## tech/a (5 October 2021)

Bux is this looks like a shorter term trade with that tight stop---Correct?
Thanks for the commentary ----- excellent makes perfect sense.

Just a few comments on the trade and chart.


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## bux2000 (5 October 2021)

Thanks Tech,

Sorry to answer your question about short term trade, not sure I guess for me perhaps longer term if shows promise, be very interested to know how you might see it ?

I must admit I find all this fascinating  ......I probably should be concentrating more on my day job but I figure I deserve a bit of a break every now and then. 

OK so thinking about it maybe I should have looked for an entry closer to .095c if there is a pull back today.........but would that be a time to add or just wait and see ?

Yeh I know but I just think its all so cool ? I probably would still make more money out of buying a lotto ticket.   but I do that anyway 

With the market down this morning as @qldfrog has said it will be interesting.

Thanks again for your time

bux


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## Sean K (5 October 2021)

@bux2000 

What's your sell or profit taking plan Bux?

And, I know we're trading charts, but any idea why it tanked on 13 Aug? I've looked at their anns and no explanation... I wouldn't have bought this without looking at the reasons for the tank. Also slightly concerned about resistance at 10c.


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## qldfrog (5 October 2021)

kennas said:


> @bux2000
> 
> What's your sell or profit taking plan Bux?
> 
> And, I know we're trading charts, but any idea why it tanked on 13 Aug? I've looked at their anns and no explanation... I wouldn't have bought this without looking at the reasons for the tank. Also slightly concerned about resistance at 10c.



out of the systems, one daily out today


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## peter2 (5 October 2021)

@kennas *HZN* returned 0.03 capital on 13/8/21. That's why some unadjusted charts show the gap.
I agree that 0.10 may provide some resistance. I also wouldn't buy something just below potential  resistance.

@bux2000, if you want to establish a short term trading activity it's vital that you create a consistent process. A process that makes you evaluate every chart in the same way. I'll post my charts as an example of my process.






*Weekly chart* first. Price is already in an established weekly up trend that started with the BO at 0.05. There was another BO opportunity near 0.07. My aim is to buy at the earliest opportunity for the best RR. Starting a long trade now, we must realise that we're late into this trend. Knowing this, I would apply short term trading tactics. Price continues higher and I grab a quick profit or I take a quick loss if price falls.

The upper panes show the relative strength comparision between the stock price and the XAO index. The price of *HZN* has been going up faster than the XAO since the BO >0.05 in Jan21.

*Daily chart*: Understanding that this opp is a short term one we look for a setup with an acceptable RR. In this regard I agree with the trade setup proposed by @tech/a. It's a break-out of a ledge and happens well below any possible resistance at 0.10.

My charts use the Supertrend to colour the bars. I scan the market each afternoon looking for the 1st blue bars. Notice that the 1stBB coincided with the ledge BO. If this setup passes my trade checklist I would buy before the close or on the next open. The choice of where to place your initial stop loss should depend on your trading style. Select the tightest SL for a short term trade. If your aim is to hold *HZN* for longer (medium term) then I'd suggest using an iSL a little further away.

Included in my checklist is the question, "is the underlying commodity (that's relevant to the company) going up ?" That's oil, yep.

Edit: I didn't mention any evaluation of the trading volume, but it's also important. During the formation of the price ledge, there was an attempt at a shake out and volume dried up. A good indication that supply is running out (or being withdrawn). This helps price go higher quickly.


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## bux2000 (5 October 2021)

Hi  @peter2 ,

Thank you for taking so much of your time to give commentary. Your sharing makes so much sense and my commentary extremely amateur especially the charts which are clear and make so much sense.

I appreciate your opinion, it is just a shame we can't somehow get hold of tomorrow's Charts today.  

All the very best

bux


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## tech/a (5 October 2021)

@bux2000 *What is your take after today?*



peter2 said:


> Select the tightest SL for a short term trade. If your aim is to hold *HZN* for longer (medium term) then I'd suggest using an iSL a little further away.




I concur with Pete in general terms with the above.

But will add a strategy I have used in the past.

With a longer term trade Im looking to get on a good run with as many shares as I can but limiting my risk.
I can do this 3 ways (If people have other ways please share).
(1) Take a position where the stop is tight and be prepared to have a few false starts. (Exit then buy again)
(2) Take smaller initial position and buy more on pull backs. (Wider stops)
(3) Take smaller positions and buy as opportunity presents. (Wider stops)

In all cases I place a stop at B/E when +1R and on* EACH* position has its own stop if adding


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## bux2000 (5 October 2021)

tech/a said:


> In all cases I place a stop at B/E when +1R and on* EACH* position has its own stop if adding




Hi Tech, 

look forward to your commentary on COE if it triggers a buy for you.

The line above I am afraid had me squinting very tightly but unfortunately that didn't help me to break the code  
If I understand correctly you would trade each added position separately.............but that's where my code breaking ability ceases  no University training but I am sure you would understand.

As far as  HZN goes I am not sure if I would move my stop loss at this stage even consider dropping it to .092 but am very interested to hear alternative views.

Thanks to everyone

bux


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## bux2000 (5 October 2021)

Just another look at a weekly chart .096 seems to be a good support level so maybe raise the stop to .095.

bux


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## peter2 (5 October 2021)

@bux2000  The downside exposure in your HZN trade is the difference between your entry (0.098) and your iSL (0.094) is 0.004. This is the value of your unit of risk or R multiple. Tech/a is suggesting that once price gets to +1R (0.098 +0.004 = 0.102) you should consider raising your exit stop to break even (BE, 0.098). Once price gets above 0.010 the next tick value is 0.105. Once price gets to 0.105 it shouldn't go back to 0.098 so this is a logical place for your exit. 

Your next post hints of micro-managing. Leave your iSL where it is until price moves significantly (up to 0.105 or down to your exit). Starting your trade near potential resistance (0.10 level) means you haven't given price any room to move around and this is going to drive you crazy as you wonder what to do next.


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## tech/a (5 October 2021)

I’m pretty aggressive and would move up each day
wether price rises falls or stagnates.
in increments but it’s not my call, it’s fine where it is.
Do what your comfortable with. Be you not me!

I like my buys to move! UP.
I also like them to prove themselves so they have to
rise into my buy.

Just saw Pete’s post 100% agree


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## bux2000 (5 October 2021)

Thanks again Peter  a 💡 moment for me.

Thanks to you as well Tech and yes you are right about comfort........unfortunately the boredom of the nuts and bolts of life can sometimes get in the way of having a little flutter.

All the best

bux


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## frugal.rock (6 October 2021)

kennas said:


> And, I know we're trading charts, but any idea why it tanked on 13 Aug? I've looked at their anns and no explanation...






bux2000 said:


> All I can say is if you look at *ATS CVN COE* charts they all tanked as you say about the same period.



If you look at a oil futures chart, it's a bit clearer.
The date mentioned is around mid point of a $10 poo pullback.






If your not considering underlying (commodity) prices in your trades, you might want to consider it. 
Correlations are common and normal especially when a company is a one trick pony.


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## tech/a (23 October 2021)

My apologies for not following this up.


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## Country Lad (3 March 2022)

Let's hope it maintains its habits. 






Fairly low amount hedged at a reasonable price and is increasing output. Also some BPT which looks like it broke out today.
Not expecting great things, just parking some of the spare cash for later use.


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## Telamelo (24 August 2022)

With oil price moving up.. took a punt on cash flow positive oiler *HZN* @ 0.14c  noting they report results tomorrow morning  (chance perhaps of dividend/capital return being announced tomorrow imo)

DYOR & due diligence as always..

Cheers tela


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## Telamelo (25 August 2022)

HZN announcement


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