# XAO Technical Analysis



## Sean K (27 October 2006)

Just thought I'd start a thread just on analysing the XAO. Anyone who has a diffent version of where they think the All Ords might be heading please feel free to post an alternate, or different perspective. 

This might be an opportnity for any other T/As to put their particular analysis on where the XAO is going. Fib? Gann? EW? Would like to see any of that overlayed on my simple charting. 

By my reckoning looks to be getting heady again. In the upper ranges of the general tend, hovering on upper BB and over 80 on stochastics. Might be due for a pause. Support established at 5100, which might be around where it'll pull back to and where the 200d ma will probably hit the line if it does fall back to that level. MACD turning which could also indicate the start of some more consolidation, before heading north again.


----------



## tech/a (27 October 2006)

*Re: XAO*

Kennas.

Radge called the last XAO low at The 4700 type level and called a wave five at around the 5400 level from memory.I cant find his post on this,but I do remember I was impressed by the accuracy.
Perhaps he will comment.
I do notice when volatlity increases then the index comes off.
There is no real volatility in the current trend so I think all is safe for the bulls currently.


----------



## swingstar (27 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

tech, did he say a wave 5 from 4700 will end at 5400?


----------



## wavepicker (27 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Just thought I'd start a thread just on analysing the XAO. Anyone who has a diffent version of where they think the All Ords might be heading please feel free to post an alternate, or different perspective.
> 
> This might be an opportnity for any other T/As to put their particular analysis on where the XAO is going. Fib? Gann? EW? Would like to see any of that overlayed on my simple charting.
> 
> By my reckoning looks to be getting heady again. In the upper ranges of the general tend, hovering on upper BB and over 80 on stochastics. Might be due for a pause. Support established at 5100, which might be around where it'll pull back to and where the 200d ma will probably hit the line if it does fall back to that level. MACD turning which could also indicate the start of some more consolidation, before heading north again.




Hi Kennas,

 Have been stewing over the XAO for a while now.  Looking at a long term chart from an EW perspective we are in the later stages of cycle wave 3.  Thought this impulse had finsihed back in May, when we succesfully shorted. The mid point of the first leg of the correction was expected to end at 4716(actual was 4726pts).  Expected the  market to trend sideways for some months before breaking to lower levels to finish that first leg of a multi year sideways move. Instead we got the sideways move but the market broke higher. 
However all that has done is confirmed that this correction we have had was 4th wave. If this is the case it should be the last move up in this cylce wave 3 and end the bull phase for quite a while.

Wave 4 contracting triangles precede the last move in an impulse (wave 5). The move out of such of a formation is short, swift and is called a thrust. It length on many occasions is approximately equal to the height of the triangle. In this case the the terminus of the triangle is at 4931 pts, and the height of the triangle is 694 pts. Thus an approximate target would be 4931+694 = 5625 pts. Of course it could a little lower or higher and the primary consideration is to count 5 waves in this last leg. It should be noted that this figure also would be the point of the upper trend channel when extended from the top of red wave 3. Wave 5's are on many occasions accompanied with a divergence in the MACD or other osicaltors. If they start to roll over this could be a confirmation. Also there is less participation in a wave 5 compared to the previous third wave and the volume thins out.

Primitive trend channels on occassion are not accurate, therefore have constructed curvilinear channels based on cycles. These look like Bollingers but are not as they have the lag removed, and are projected forward using curve fittin techniques. When the inner cycle intersects with outer cycle we have reliable pivot points where a trend change is a high probability. In this case, the 5400-5600 area is one of major resistance in terms of time and price. Bollingers are a waste of time unless you take the lag out of the equation.

have charts, but unable to upload due to size limits imposed by this site

Hope this helps


----------



## swingstar (27 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> have charts, but unable to upload due to size limits imposed by this site




Hi wavepicker

You might be able to upload them at http://www.tinypic.com, if not PM me and I can upload them (I'll give you my email to send).

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (28 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				swingstar said:
			
		

> tech, did he say a wave 5 from 4700 will end at 5400?




Yes,cant remember exact figures----they werent round.


----------



## Porper (28 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				swingstar said:
			
		

> tech, did he say a wave 5 from 4700 will end at 5400?




That is correct Swingstar, about 4750 and called the top of wave 5 at 5400.


----------



## Sean K (28 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't really understand EW that well but have enclosed what I think might be the count in the bull run that started in 03. 

My count has us already having reached a stage 5 and we've just had a significant corrective down wave A, B, C. Now heading in an upward cycle again. This count seems a bit arbitrary to me however, and I've had to adjust the chart to my count.....

I'm not sure what type of cylce we are in. (Primary? Cylcle? Supercycle?)

I also don't have the ability to place Fibonacci numbers on my charts so can't use that confirm my count, or give it more fidelity.

In my research on EW I found a couple of interesting quotes:    

"if you put 10 Elliott Wave analysts in a room, you'll get 12 opinions". 

"Elliott Wave called 10 of the last 3 crashes." 

Having said that, I am very keen to understand this and test it, and incorporate it with all the other information available on business cyles, geopolitics, and even Gann.....


----------



## Kauri (28 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kennas,  
                 I'm not up on E/W much myself but one rule that seems set in stone is that W3 can never be the shortest wave.


----------



## wavepicker (28 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> In my research on EW I found a couple of interesting quotes:
> 
> "if you put 10 Elliott Wave analysts in a room, you'll get 12 opinions".



This true, but you can have various wavecounts and they can all pointing to the same thing. When that happens you know you are on a winner.




> "Elliott Wave called 10 of the last 3 crashes."



I presume you are referring to Bob Prechter.  He picked the bull run of the 80's in 1978 when everyone was bearish he then picked the top when everyone was bullish and told his subscribers to exit the mkt in 87, 1.5 weeks before the crash. he called the peaks in the Nikkei 225 in 1990 and the peak of the Nasdaq.

However he has also been repeatedly wrong calling for a top in the DJIA since 1995 and has been woefully wrong.

Elliott Wavers like other TA practioners make heaps of mistakes, they also make stunning forecasts. Unfortunately that is the nature of the business we are in and when dealing with probabilities of future price movement.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (28 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> Elliott Wavers like other TA practioners make heaps of mistakes, they also make stunning forecasts. Unfortunately that is the nature of the business we are in and when dealing with probabilities of future price movement.
> 
> Cheers




Yep, the key seems to be 'probabilities' with all T/A, and when you combine that with other market factors you can get a clearer picture of what direction certain stocks, or the XAO, might go it. 

Wavepicker, do you look at T/A first, or F/A when trying to decide on a stocks movement? Or does T/A factor in F/A and thereore you don't need to look at it?

Sorry if you've already gone through this on the T/A v F/A thread..


----------



## nizar (28 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> I presume you are referring to Bob Prechter.  He picked the bull run of the 80's in 1978 when everyone was bearish he then picked the top when everyone was bullish and told his subscribers to exit the mkt in 87, 1.5 weeks before the crash. he called the peaks in the Nikkei 225 in 1990 and the peak of the Nasdaq.




Thats a VERY impressive record. He and his followers mustve made a bucketload during those times.


----------



## GreatPig (28 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Thats a VERY impressive record



Well if you make enough predictions about everything, you'll eventually get a few spectacularly right.

GP


----------



## wavepicker (28 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Thats a VERY impressive record. He and his followers mustve made a bucketload during those times.




Every Guru has his day I suppose. All it takes is 1 or 2 bad calls and their reputation dies very fast. He did win the 1984 trading championship with a 444% gain in 4 months which was a record back then. (There have been much bigger gains in comps since then)

Where he came apart was with his long term forecasts. Forecasting in the short term is hard enough, but making a very long term forecast is something else!!


Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (29 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> Every Guru has his day I suppose. All it takes is 1 or 2 bad calls and their reputation dies very fast. He did win the 1984 trading championship with a 444% gain in 4 months which was a record back then. (There have been much bigger gains in comps since then)
> 
> Where he came apart was with his long term forecasts. Forecasting in the short term is hard enough, but making a very long term forecast is something else!!
> 
> Cheers




Hi,

I've been out drinking so please excuse my arrogance. Superman, Batman, and Spiderman would struggle to be accurate with longterm forecasts. In fact nobody can be accurate with long term forecasts, and I mean LONG-TERM.

Enjoy your day


----------



## Wilma (29 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Hi,
> 
> .......In fact nobody can be accurate with long term forecasts, and I mean LONG-TERM.
> 
> Enjoy your day




This is not an accurate statement imo.

LONG-TERM is a relative term and could mean different time-frames.  LONG-TERM for a true day trader who doesn't hold open positions overnight might say a week is LONG-TERM.  An investor might say LONG-TERM is months or years.

*Either way, it is possible for someone to be accurate with LONG-TERM forecasts.  Their credibility should be based on the percentage of times their forecasts eventuate.*

Forecasting should also include the probability of the forecast eventuating.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (29 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Wilma said:
			
		

> LONG-TERM is a relative term and could mean different time-frames.  LONG-TERM for a true day trader who doesn't hold open positions overnight might say a week is LONG-TERM.  An investor might say LONG-TERM is months or years.
> 
> *Either way, it is possible  for someone to be accurate with LONG-TERM forecasts.  Their credibility should be based on the percentage of times their forecasts eventuate.*



Wilma,

For the purposes of this thread it might be better to keep it SIMPLE as most would - using fractals of time only complicates things. Refer to the quotes from Dic.com.



> Quote: Dictionary.com
> day trader
> n.
> A speculator who buys and sells securities on the basis of small short-term  price movements.






> long-term
> 
> –adjective 1. covering a relatively long period of time: a long-term lease.
> 2. maturing over or after a relatively long period of time: a long-term loan; a long-term bond.
> 3. (of a capital gain or loss) derived from the sale or exchange of an asset held for more than a specified time, as six months or one year.


----------



## rosie (29 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

fwiw the XAO at the May high squared out the price range from 21/3//05-5/5/05...370 points. 370 days from 5/5/05 was the May high. 370 days-/+ has been a valid period previously with the XAO/SPI. Thurs, was 370 days from 21/10/05 low. The next important time vibe using that square is 11/11/06. IF this is a valid higher double bottom the Index has much further to climb, when l look at stocks many appear to be struggling (over lapping waves) the Index itself has taken a long time to climb back up, 35 days to go down & 135 days to get back the same point.


----------



## Sean K (30 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some fundamental factors that lead me to think we are going to push through to all time highs in the near term include:

Interest rate rise is factored in.
Leading into the Christmas Cheer period.
Commodities are holding, with some rising considerably.
Oil looks to be going to hold around $60.00. 
POG looks to have made a higher low, perhaps set to turn and break through $600.
Companys have reported faily well over the past few weeks. No surprises.
M&A speculation and activity will keep some stocks fully priced for a while.
US inflation seems to be contained, although there are mixed signals.
Regional geopolitics settled a little with Thailand and Nth Korea stable, for the moment.
There are a much higher than average number of people logged into ASF on a daily basis.   
The pe ratio for the XAO is below long term trend. (Read this a few days ago, haven't got the figure) 
The Bull is back!

So, I think that could pull back to 5200 in the short term and probably find a bit of support there, or worst case 5100 where it should bounce, and then push through 5400 by the end of the year. If good news keeps coming out of the US, then perhaps it'll just keep pushing on up....


----------



## nizar (30 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Some fundamental factors that lead me to think we are going to push through to all time highs in the near term include:
> 
> Interest rate rise is factored in.
> Leading into the Christmas Cheer period.
> ...




Agree. THis is also the way i see things. I think current PE is 13, compared to a historical average of 15, or something along those lines.

I think the next push upwards will be more based on oil/gold and the resource stocks leading the way just like january-may this year.

But it'll be really nice if this rally blends into the seasonal Santa Claus rally.


----------



## Space Cadet (30 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Below is an updated Excel spreadsheet and summary charts of the major ASX indices' PER's.

The PER's are calculated using companies forecast 2007 EPS.

Imo we're at about fair value now but probably still a little on the pricey side.


----------



## Space Cadet (30 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

and these were the ASX PER's a few months back before the correction we had to have.


----------



## Sean K (30 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Similar except the ASX 200 and 300. Interesting. 

Got an overall market per, perhaps that tells a story?

Space cadet, your avatar is FREAKIN ME OUT! Aaaahhhhh!


----------



## Space Cadet (30 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kennas

XAO has been added to the spreadsheet and charts for you.

I can upload only a cut-down version of the spreadsheet containing the XAO PER data because of size limits on this site (even using ZIP compression).

Between this and the previous spreadsheet you can see all the data that was used and how the PER's are calculated.


----------



## Sean K (30 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Cheers.

What's the difference between weighted and unweighted. 19.4 looks pricey on the unweighted XAO...


----------



## Space Cadet (30 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Cheers.
> 
> What's the difference between weighted and unweighted. 19.4 looks pricey on the unweighted XAO...




*The Unweighted PER * is the Average of the individual company PER's calculated by:

company PER = (share price) / (forecast 2007 EPS)

*The Weighted PER * then weights each individual company PER according to its market cap as a percentage of the total index market cap before averaging the PER's

Also, the forecast EPS and market cap data are sourced from commsec who have forecast 2007 EPS for only 437 companies when the data was downloaded last week and their  are 491 members in the XAO index.

Index company members, including the XAO, are downloaded from the S&P website.

The spreadsheet ignores companies in the averages calculations where there is no EPS data available.

So if you have an updated more extensive source for EPS data then you could insert it into the 'Data' sheet in the spreadsheet.


----------



## Space Cadet (30 October 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The x-section of unweighted ASX indices PERs shows that the mid to small caps are driving up the ASX300 and XAO indices.

This is also seen in the weighted PERs where the relatively smaller weighting of the mid to small caps (compared to the large cap ASX100 stocks) mostly negates their affect on the average PERs.

IMO the ASX50/100/200 PERs are at about fair value and so could have a little further to go if sentiment stays positive, but if their PER's are at 18+ if the previous all time highs are retested then I doubt the rally would continue much further in the short term.


----------



## Sean K (2 November 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO looking toppy IMO. Won't take much for profit takers to sweep in to those stocks that have driven the recent run. I'm not feeling very confident in investing atm. Perhaps the golden run of the last 5 weeks could be coming to an end?

By the chart there could even be a pull back to the 5100 level before pushing on to all time highs once again. 

Our economy is still very sound less farmers, and pending US stability therefore China growth story.....

Note the similarities between now and the May correction.


----------



## CanOz (2 November 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I agree that we're ripe for a pull back but i can't see a correction happening. The volume has not dropped off the way it did back in May. Allot of money has come into the market over the last few weeks....maybe some the lower volumes lately (Last three sessions below 21 ma) are investors nervous about the Fed's decision next week?

Sorry but i can only see the volume on Etrade..not Bigcharts.

Anyone else have any opinions?


----------



## Sean K (8 November 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I can't see volumes either. 

Still toppy. If it falls, where's support? Support lines are dropping away, and away. I suppose the previous all time high would give it a bounce, but next best support is still down at 5100 really.   

Overbought on slow stochastics and has been for a while. Way above 200 d ma. 

A correction in the XJO is probably due which will bring ours on. Maybe not a 'correction' but surely a pullback...


----------



## Edwood (27 November 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hey all - am new to ASF - anyone here able to recommend a good day trading thread for XAO & the indices in general?

cheers


----------



## Sean K (27 November 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Edwood said:
			
		

> hey all - am new to ASF - anyone here able to recommend a good day trading thread for XAO & the indices in general?
> 
> cheers



Try 'Trading the SPI'. I think that was the thread title. cheers.


----------



## spitrader1 (27 November 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Edwood said:
			
		

> hey all - am new to ASF - anyone here able to recommend a good day trading thread for XAO & the indices in general?
> 
> cheers



try this
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=95360#post95360

be carefull though-lesser men have perished here.


----------



## Edwood (27 November 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ta spit & kennas


----------



## rosie (17 December 2006)

*XAO*

Price on XAO is interesting.  

Cheers.


----------



## wavepicker (17 December 2006)

*Re: XAO*



			
				rosie said:
			
		

> Price on XAO is interesting.
> 
> Cheers.




Hi Rosie, what is it you see here??  

Perhaps the tenets of a multi month correction are in the making??

Interested to hear anybody elses opinion on this chart??


----------



## rosie (18 December 2006)

*Re: XAO*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> Hi Rosie, what is it you see here??
> 
> Perhaps the tenets of a multi month correction are in the making??
> 
> Interested to hear anybody elses opinion on this chart??




Hi wavepicker, I see your name sake (waves) I see price vibrating off  important turning points, we'll soon know if price action is valid or not.   

Cheers.


----------



## Sean K (18 December 2006)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Support as shown. It's hard to see it below the second strong line, around rosies 61% retraction. Although the bears will disagree of course.   The next correction might send it there perhaps. We're due.


----------



## Sean K (4 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Could this be the start of a pullback or does the Santa Rally go through to end of Jan?


----------



## theasxgorilla (4 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think there is a pretty clear up trend line in there that is yet to be reached or broken, but it's getting close.


----------



## judge (4 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Below is the weekly XJO chart (ASX200 Index) with the Stochastic and MACD indicators and the avge PER's for the major market indices.

XJO is still clearly in an uptrend but once the index PER's start rising to 20-22+ I then start anticipating a technical correction, but not a crash at this stage.  Fair market PER imo is around 17-18 atm.

Food for thought


----------



## theasxgorilla (7 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

More bearish MACD divergence on the XAO.   The last divergence of this kind appeared around the peak in May 06.  Be alert, not alarmed...


----------



## wavepicker (7 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> More bearish MACD divergence on the XAO.   The last divergence of this kind appeared around the peak in May 06.  Be alert, not alarmed...




IMO this was the last leg up in the XAO. New highs may not be seen this year like previous years. Will be some excellent trading opportunities both short and long this year. Expected this market topout between 5622-5645 range. Went a little further (5670).

Thought correction May was it, but the consolidation and final blowoff (5th wave) made the picture much clearer.

Cheers


----------



## wintermute (10 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Kennas, 

               A while back I made the observation that the humble RSI had been quite a good indicator of pullbacks of the XAO.... 5 year monthly chart below   and 2 year weekly (with an exception) shows once RSI reaches 80 a drop ensues relatively soon after....

Note I haven't read the whole thread, nor understood all of the more technical stuff of those posts that I have read, but thought this very simple test was worth mentioning  

Tony. 

PS. I tried to inline it, but it just gave me a link.... strange as others seem to have done so successfully...


----------



## Sean K (10 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wintermute said:
			
		

> Hi Kennas,
> 
> A while back I made the observation that the humble RSI had been quite a good indicator of pullbacks of the XAO.... 5 year monthly chart below   and 2 year weekly (with an exception) shows once RSI reaches 80 a drop ensues relatively soon after....
> 
> ...



Thanks Tony, interesting chart. Clearly shows the bull run with the RSI running high the whole time with those corrections. Has just come off as you point out. 

This 3 year weekly has the MACD falling over, Slow Stochastics falling from overbought, and the BB diverged with the XAO running close to the top, but just comming off. Perhaps the green circle will bring it back to a 3 year support line (up for argument) which is also around support at 5300 ish? That 200d ma is a long way away however. Perhaps it'll be closer when the XAO drops back a bit?


----------



## swingstar (10 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

RSI divergence has been fairly consistent with a lot of corrections on XJO... I *will* code it one day... Would like to test it with various exit strategies. From eyeballing it seems to have a very high probability of a pullback, but that is useless without knowing when to get out.


----------



## wintermute (10 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

yeah the weekly is a little more consistent (except at the begining of the chart)  the monthly sometimes went over for a while, sometimes just touched 80, but as an early warning signal I think it is ok, then you can look at other signs...  

Unfortunately the other drawback is that it doesn't seem to really have a correlation to how big the pullback is going to be.... but thought it was interesting just the same  

Tony.


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Making yet another high.

Concerned a little that it's running away from the 200 d ma - long term ave....I see a pullback to the 5300-400 range as a healthy break in the short term, for long term gains...

I tried to put an EW count on this but I can't fit one in with fidelity. 

Can anyone else?


----------



## Uncle Festivus (22 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hi kennas,
One indicator that I use is the divergence from the 200 d ma. If your chart program can create it, well worth it. I'll try to post a pic.


----------



## theasxgorilla (22 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

UF, this sounds like a good indicator.  Post it up! 

I also use the distance between price and the 200-day MA but I just eye-ball it as opposed to using a crafted indicator.

BTW, I hope everyone is LONG the market right now!


----------



## Edwood (22 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

afternoon - a possible area for a pause, pattern is starting to look complete, however the breakout over resistance at previous all time highs looks pretty bullish


----------



## Edwood (23 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

any wavers out there who can critque this?  alternative is that we print a lower low and make a 5 down - 5667 area on my chart looks important support.  note that my numbers vary slightly from XAO due tot he instrument I'm trading but the pattern should be pretty similar


----------



## theasxgorilla (23 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Love your work Edwood.  5761 is a 144-line...might be where the wave 5 is headed?  Who knows...but I like your counting.


----------



## Edwood (23 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Love your work Edwood.  5761 is a 144-line...might be where the wave 5 is headed?  Who knows...but I like your counting.




thanks Gorilla - seems to fit but beware there might be bits that need to be tweaked, altho overall it looks like higher to me.  I see Bill McLaren is suggesting we might get an exhaustive spike, which could take us to 5,800 area, but I think a lot depends on whether the US & Europe can hold support.


----------



## Edwood (23 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

oops!  I see I spelt McLarens name wrong  but doesn't seem I can edit my post - anyone know how to edit?


----------



## Nick Radge (23 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Your A-B-C at the bottom looks incorrect. 

On daily chart, I think we're either near completing a running flat wave-b of wave-(iv) or we've already started the wave-(v) higher. I was looking for another pull back toward 5500 but not sure that's going to happen if we go too much further.


----------



## Joe Blow (23 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Edwood said:
			
		

> oops!  I see I spelt McLarens name wrong  but doesn't seem I can edit my post - anyone know how to edit?




For twenty minutes after you post you will see an 'Edit' button next to the 'Quote' button on your post. Click this to edit your post. Keep in mind you only have 20 minutes from the original post time to make alterations.


----------



## Edwood (23 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Your A-B-C at the bottom looks incorrect.
> 
> On daily chart, I think we're either near completing a running flat wave-b of wave-(iv) or we've already started the wave-(v) higher. I was looking for another pull back toward 5500 but not sure that's going to happen if we go too much further.




ah ok - yes I was tossing up between 1-2 out of the low or A-B-C, thanks for your feedback Nick


----------



## Edwood (23 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Joe Blow said:
			
		

> For twenty minutes after you post you will see an 'Edit' button next to the 'Quote' button on your post. Click this to edit your post. Keep in mind you only have 20 minutes from the original post time to make alterations.




ok thanks Joe, I see that now


----------



## Edwood (24 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

updated count - rejected at the 1.68 fib extension of my waves 1 & i






looks like a bear flag forming on 1min chart, possible 13 pts out of it.


----------



## mmmmining (25 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

People just cannot wait for the long weekend, sell, sell...
I guess next week will be a tough one when all professionals are back to work. A round of profit taking is on the corner...
But for mining companies, the stake is high because the quarterly report is due...


----------



## Edwood (31 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

the earlier count showed the last month, here is the last 12 months.  Wave 3 = 1.618 x 1, so good possibility of some resistance around these levels (note this is based on ASX200 not XAO)


----------



## Nick Radge (31 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Your wave-v is also the higher degree wave-3, so the current move higher must be a wave-5


----------



## Edwood (31 January 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Your wave-v is also the higher degree wave-3, so the current move higher must be a wave-5




sounds fair - so v = 3, we've had 4 and now in 5, which looks to be extending.  the chart is based on 24 hr data tho so there'll be some differences from XAO I'd suspect.


----------



## Edwood (1 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

10 day view - looks to be running out of steam, lots of divergence showing now


----------



## Edwood (1 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Making yet another high.
> 
> Concerned a little that it's running away from the 200 d ma - long term ave....I see a pullback to the 5300-400 range as a healthy break in the short term, for long term gains...
> 
> ...




hi Kennas - had a crack at a weekly count on ASX200 - the fibs all seem to work out OK.  if 5 = 1 we could push up to 6,100-ish


----------



## wavepicker (1 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Edwood said:
			
		

> hi Kennas - had a crack at a weekly count on ASX200 - the fibs all seem to work out OK.  if 5 = 1 we could push up to 6,100-ish




Edwood,

Might be better and more valid performing a count on actual EOD data rather than CFD bid data from reuters. It can make a difference.


----------



## feng77 (3 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

still some divergence in MACD after todays trading day

http://widdly.com/users/feng/ASX/XAO/Chart/


----------



## >Apocalypto< (6 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Edwood said:
			
		

> hi Kennas - had a crack at a weekly count on ASX200 - the fibs all seem to work out OK.  if 5 = 1 we could push up to 6,100-ish




From the chart u posted on the weekly Aussie200.

Looking at the bottom indicator it has hit the top line so some kind of pull back could be expected going on past   what do u think? 

I am also turning bearish as it pulled so far of it trend lines I feel a 200+ pull back is on the cards.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (7 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

today a hell of alot of puts where bought on the XJO 

Calls Traded: 2238   	Puts Traded: 8217  now does this mean much?

that's the frist time i have seen it lean that much to one side in a long time when we are at a top.

some over zealous bears maybe or something more?


----------



## dodgers (7 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Found this T/A view from a major broking house today. Just wondering if others share their view that we're close to the top of wave 3 for this bull run with a corrective wave 4 imminent before uptrend resumption for a final fifth wave...??

_Given the continued uptrend over recent weeks it is likely that wave 3 within the sequence from the 4758 June 2006 low is still unfolding. Structurally the third wave appears to be close to complete and is approaching important wave relationship resistance at 5905 where wave 3 equals 2.618 the length of wave 1. This is a likely place for a fourth wave correction to occur from. Weakness through support at 5760 needs to occur to provide an initial indication that the market has begun a fourth wave retreat, with downside risk then to the 5285 to 5489 region (fourth wave of lesser degree range) before uptrend resumption for a final fifth wave._

What are your thoughts?


----------



## Edwood (9 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Trade_It said:
			
		

> From the chart u posted on the weekly Aussie200.
> 
> Looking at the bottom indicator it has hit the top line so some kind of pull back could be expected going on past   what do u think?
> 
> I am also turning bearish as it pulled so far of it trend lines I feel a 200+ pull back is on the cards.




hi Trade It, been away for a week - good to see ASX still up here!  also think we are heading for a correction, agree the RSI is moving into overbought territory but in the past its run up for some time while more o/bought


----------



## Edwood (9 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				dodgers said:
			
		

> Found this T/A view from a major broking house today. Just wondering if others share their view that we're close to the top of wave 3 for this bull run with a corrective wave 4 imminent before uptrend resumption for a final fifth wave...??
> 
> What are your thoughts?




have seen a very similar count on XAO in the last few days Dodgers from a UK-based house, definitely sounds feasible imo


----------



## dodgers (10 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks Edwood

Being a non-chartist, I can't figure out where the wave 1 peak might have been. Any ideas?

cheers
dodgers


----------



## Edwood (11 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hi Dodgers, using XAO on bigcharts (which may not be completely correct) it looks to be around 5,100, give or take a few


----------



## Edwood (12 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

don't know if you've noticed Dodgers but XAO has just now bounced back from 5,905 - can it take it out now I guess is the question


----------



## dodgers (12 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks Edwood, I'm guessing it can crack 6000 before correcting but thats exactly what it is....a guess


----------



## Edwood (13 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Trade_It said:
			
		

> today a hell of alot of puts where bought on the XJO
> 
> Calls Traded: 2238           Puts Traded: 8217  now does this mean much?
> 
> ...




could be institutions hedging their long positions Trade-It as we approach a 'key' level, or they're betting on a fall.  either way their covered.  imo high amounts of open interest can act as a support and resistance - so lots of short interest can help to drive the market higher as they're forced to cover as the market moves higher


----------



## Sean K (20 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is this looking toppy and ready for a bit of a breather?   

Top of a wave 5 perhaps?

If we get a 10% correction this would bring it back to the 5400 level, where there is some support also.

Looking for some good shorts here, or perhaps the spi.


----------



## Sean K (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is the China syndrome going to can the US like it has UK? And then us? Could this be the start of the inevitable correction that we have to have? 1st stop could be 5700, then around 5450 ish. That's about a 50% retractment from the latest 5 wave push. Or, am I being too bearish? 

Shorting the spi looks like it could be a cunning plan, shortly.


----------



## tech/a (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Good call Kenna's hope you took an O/N position.--short.


----------



## Realist (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It is a good call Kennas. If not a bit late.

But I'm betting you did not short anything, or even sell anything?

You're not a 'shorting' type of guy are you?

5400 is quite bearish and I can't see us hitting that again.  Have to see how China goes tonite first though...


----------



## Sean K (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Realist said:
			
		

> It is a good call Kennas. If not a bit late.
> 
> But I'm betting you did not short anything, or even sell anything?
> 
> You're not a 'shorting' type of guy are you?



Hi Realist. I've sold 3/4 of my portfolio over the past 3 months. Is that enough? I didn't put a short position in yesterday, but a 'correction' doesn't usually happen in one day.


----------



## TheRage (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Hi Realist. I've sold 3/4 of my portfolio over the past 3 months. Is that enough? I didn't put a short position in yesterday, but a '
> correction' doesn't usually happen in one day.



 Hi Kennas,

I am a little bit like you in that I have been progressively selling down over the last two months. The only reason I haven't been buying back in had nothing to do with me thinking there will be a crash, which it looks like ther might be a correction today, but rather I was having trouble finding shares at a fundamentally cheap price. Who knows the next few months might be good buying opportunities. Many people who I know and work with etc keep telling me its not timing the market but time in the market. I guess they have been conditioned to say this so that they feel better watching their money drop like flies. Well done on the chart and also for selling off your assets. 

Cheers
Ryan


----------



## chris1983 (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well you would be cashed up now Kennas preparing to take advantage of this.  If I had of been selling down I would of been taking just as big of hits from the taxman which is why I have stemmed me away from doing that.  Also im in for the longer term.  Guys but seriously..in regards to energy stocks...Uranium has not taken a backward step during any correction of late.  Energy is needed.  This won't last.  The government in China is cracking down on speculation..and some figures show hints of an economic slow down.  This is just all speculation and an over reaction.  A healthy correction will probably come into play and then we can look at higher highs in the next run up.  Whats your opinions?  I'm expecting to take some hits like the last correction I'm but not expecting it to last long.  Actually if I see any good stocks get absolutely belted I'll be calling my girlfriend and tell her to transfer funds quick.


----------



## Sean K (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				chris1983 said:
			
		

> Well you would be cashed up now Kennas preparing to take advantage of this.  If I had of been selling down I would of been taking just as big of hits from the taxman which is why I have stemmed me away from doing that.  Also im in for the longer term.  Guys but seriously..in regards to energy stocks...Uranium has not taken a backward step during any correction of late.  Energy is needed.  This won't last.  The government in China is cracking down on speculation..and some figures show hints of an economic slow down.  This is just all speculation and an over reaction.  A healthy correction will probably come into play and then we can look at higher highs in the next run up.  Whats your opinions?  I'm expecting to take some hits like the last correction I'm but not expecting it to last long.  Actually if I see any good stocks get absolutely belted I'll be calling my girlfriend and tell her to transfer funds quick.



I don't think anything will be spared. Gold will be smashed even though it's not a commodity. Uranium stocks will as well, even though demand/supply hasn't changed and the price is more likely to hit $100 as opposed go back under $80. Just the way of the market. Probably an opportunity to take some positions once the dust settles. I wouldn't be trying to catch this falling knife though.


----------



## chris1983 (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I don't think anything will be spared. Gold will be smashed even though it's not a commodity. Uranium stocks will as well, even though demand/supply hasn't changed and the price is more likely to hit $100 as opposed go back under $80. Just the way of the market. Probably an opportunity to take some positions once the dust settles. I wouldn't be trying to catch this falling knife though.




I agree.  I dont think anything will be spared.  Maybe Bannerman. haha .

You'll have a lot of investors running scared.  You think the drop would be as bad as a falling knife...hmm I dont think it will be..but eh what do I know.  I'll be holding.  I sold some stocks in the last correction and it was the worst move I have made in the past year.


----------



## Sean K (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				chris1983 said:
			
		

> I agree.  I dont think anything will be spared.  Maybe Bannerman. haha .
> 
> You'll have a lot of investors running scared.  You think the drop would be as bad as a falling knife...hmm I dont think it will be..but eh what do I know.  I'll be holding.  I sold some stocks in the last correction and it was the worst move I have made in the past year.



LOL. I bought back into BMN yesterday, so I hope you are right.   

Bigger picture looks like 5400 could be the first step back towards the long term trend.


----------



## Realist (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Your graph should be logarithmic shouldn't it Kennas?


2000 to 4000 is the same as 4000 to 8000 to me.     


If it aint logarithmic the trend will just go up and up quicker and quicker over time.


----------



## Sean K (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Realist said:
			
		

> Your graph should be logarithmic shouldn't it Kennas?
> 
> 2000 to 4000 is the same as 4000 to 8000 to me.
> 
> If it aint logarithmic the trend will just go up and up quicker and quicker over time.



You're right, it's not. Gotta find me one of those. But probably not as quick as above? Perhaps.


----------



## chris1983 (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeah that looks possible..but economic growth is different in recent years with the added boom of China and India coming into the mix of late.  I just cant see it happening..the markets are different now.  This is a little scare and I think sellers will be sorry in the end..guys like youself with funds will be the ones laughing when you pick everything up cheap.

Energy is needed by those two countries and needed badly.  Gas is needed in the US.  This wont last.  Both china and India are expanding.  Anyway its going to be an interesting day.  I can watch some of my paper gains dissapear.  Oh yay.  I think the 5400 benchmark on the graph will be the more likely of the possibilities.


----------



## Sean K (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Realist said:
			
		

> Your graph should be logarithmic shouldn't it Kennas?
> 
> 2000 to 4000 is the same as 4000 to 8000 to me.
> 
> If it aint logarithmic the trend will just go up and up quicker and quicker over time.



11 Years 2000-4000. 2 years 4000-6000?


----------



## professor_frink (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Realist said:
			
		

> Your graph should be logarithmic shouldn't it Kennas?
> 
> 
> 2000 to 4000 is the same as 4000 to 8000 to me.
> ...



yes and no. When looking at a chart of the Dow going back to the 1920's it will look parabolic, but for looking at recent history, linear scale is what you want to look at. The blow off tops are alot easier to spot in linear


----------



## Sean K (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				chris1983 said:
			
		

> Yeah that looks possible..but economic growth is different in recent years with the added boom of China and India coming into the mix of late.  I just cant see it happening..the markets are different now.  This is a little scare and I think sellers will be sorry in the end..guys like youself with funds will be the ones laughing when you pick everything up cheap.
> 
> Energy is needed by those two countries and needed badly.  Gas is needed in the US.  This wont last.  Both china and India are expanding.  Anyway its going to be an interesting day.  I can watch some of my paper gains dissapear.  Oh yay.  I think the 5400 benchmark on the graph will be the more likely of the possibilities.



I'm not that bearish, and Realist is right, the graph doesn't provide a truly accurate picture, but it's close. I think 5400 ish could be as deap as this goes, if it actually is the start of a decent correction. I'm not in the Bears den yet claiming recession/depression. Even though the Chinese numbers were ordinary, it could be a short term thing. I haven't studied it enough yet, or even understand economics enough to make a qualified claim however. I'm just parroting the news papers. Long term  markets go up.


----------



## Realist (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> 11 Years 2000-4000. 2 years 4000-6000?





2000 to 4000 is a 100% increase

4000 to 6000 is a 50% increase

But yes I agree 2 years to go 4000 to 6000 is very very quick.

Alot of good reasons for that though. Maybe the market was a little undervalued 5 years ago? 

And Companies are making huuuuuge profits now.. So there are fundamnental reasons.

Look at Woolworths yesterday for instance.  BHP and RIO.

So if you matched the average PER's over the years to the graph the ASX is slightly overvalued at best now.

Yeah we'll get a little correction or two, and the market wont soar, I see no crash coming though (without some major event like War breaking out)


----------



## wintermute (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I wouldn't be at all surprised if this is a week long (or less) correction  from memory (though I wasn't actually in the market) the bargains only lasted for a few days after Sep 11.  And from something I read this morning, the drop in the US is the biggest one day drop since Sep 11...

Tony.


----------



## GreatPig (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting place for the low to touch today.

I wonder if it's defining a new trendline, or just pausing before the next plunge...

GP


----------



## Sean K (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Interesting place for the low to touch today.



There is a little bit of support around 5800 so it seems a likely place for a pause.

There's conjecture what phase this is, but to me it looks like the start of an A B C down after a pretty clear 5 wave push up. Couldn't get too much clearer than that could it?

Perhaps some consolidation over the next few days before heading to 5700, recovery to the new resistance to be formed at 5800 before moving back to the long term trend around 5450 ish (probably in May). Then back on up. 

Just a pluck. Will be interesting to see how it does unfold though.


----------



## doctorj (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting, but isn't wave 3 usually the longest and never the shortest?


----------



## Sean K (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Interesting, but isn't wave 3 usually the longest and never the shortest?



Interesting, as in nice colours?   Nice eh? I just love drawing these things. I should have done art at uni.

Yeah, I understand wave 3 supposed to be the longest, but I'm not sure about the _never _ part. I've come to accept that T/A of any sort is all probabilities and never certainties. There's always exceptions to every rule. In fact, I couldn't say T/A is a rule anyway, it's just a guide. There's a whole bunch of charts out there that don't conform to support and resistance lines, fib, or EW in the slightest. But they would be the exceptions. 

This longer term chart also shows a wave 5, with a couple of anomolies in it. The wave 3 is the longest here. Whatever the case, I think we're in for at least a 3 wave downward move in all probabilities. On this long term chart the A B C could take it down to 4800 ish, but I'm not that bearish. Yet.


----------



## chris1983 (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well we can only tell tonight.  A lot of investors who sold out will be hoping its a larger correction.  If it starts pulling back up tomorrow after they got out today they will be quite sorry.  It allready recovered quite a bit from the morning.  Atleast the Shanghai index showed recovery today.  Its still going very strong considering its recent rises.


----------



## Sean K (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				chris1983 said:
			
		

> Well we can only tell tonight.  A lot of investors who sold out will be hoping its a larger correction.  If it starts pulling back up tomorrow after they got out today they will be quite sorry.  It allready recovered quite a bit from the morning..so keep an eye out for people hammering the forums saying its not over.  Atleast the Shanghai index showed recovery today.  Its still going very strong considering its recent rises.



The chart isn't going to go directly up, or down. The second chart is 3 year weekly so all the bumps are taken out. There might be some consolidation sideways movement before a definate trend reappears. Might take a week or 4...


----------



## GreatPig (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				chris1983 said:
			
		

> If it starts pulling back up tomorrow after they got out today they will be quite sorry



The way I look at it, selling today and missing out on gains tomorrow is an annoyance, but the funds are safe and more opportunities will arise. Not selling today and losing another packet tomorrow could prevent those future opportunities from being taken at all.

GP


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 February 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Interesting, as in nice colours?   Nice eh? I just love drawing these things. I should have done art at uni.
> 
> Yeah, I understand wave 3 supposed to be the longest, but I'm not sure about the _never _ part. I've come to accept that T/A of any sort is all probabilities and never certainties. There's always exceptions to every rule. In fact, I couldn't say T/A is a rule anyway, it's just a guide. There's a whole bunch of charts out there that don't conform to support and resistance lines, fib, or EW in the slightest. But they would be the exceptions.
> 
> This longer term chart also shows a wave 5, with a couple of anomolies in it. The wave 3 is the longest here. Whatever the case, I think we're in for at least a 3 wave downward move in all probabilities. On this long term chart the A B C could take it down to 4800 ish, but I'm not that bearish. Yet.




Very nice chart and interpretation Kennas

However as I've recently posted in the PANIC!! thread I believe the wave 5 was longer than the wave 3 and the reasonable ABC retracement will be to 50%, i.e. 5500, as there is support at that level and that is where a cautious accumulation should begin.

Garpal


----------



## chris1983 (1 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> The way I look at it, selling today and missing out on gains tomorrow is an annoyance, but the funds are safe and more opportunities will arise. Not selling today and losing another packet tomorrow could prevent those future opportunities from being taken at all.
> 
> GP




I agree with what you have said Gpig..but I really didnt think this would last which is why I didnt sell off anything.  I guess thats a risk I'm taking by not selling out..but to me I only believe this correction would be short lived.  I reckon it will be a 100+ point rise today on the DOW.  Too many bargains..they wanted any reason for a sell off and the chinese market gave it to them.  I learnt from the last correction not to sell.  Do you guys really see the economies weakening atm?  They are going so strong..China/India/USA.  Just have to watch inflation figured in the US.. Ive never been in a crash..so I have no idea how to pick one..but from the looks of things it was a bit of a sell off for nothing?(Panic panic panic).  The movement on the DOW should let us know which direction its heading..so now we wait


----------



## GreatPig (1 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Seems like the XAO is moving up a well defined channel now, since the bull run started in early '03.

That puts the bottom at just under 5400 right now.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Sean K (1 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Seems like the XAO is moving up a well defined channel now, since the bull run started in early '03.
> 
> That puts the bottom at just under 5400 right now.
> 
> ...



It should come back to the mean at least in the next few months. It had moved about 15% away from the 200d ma as well, and each time it has moved away like this the past 3 years there has been a correction of about 8ish %. It's been due, and we've been saying that in this thread since early Jan. It's still got some way to go to be a healthy chart IMO, and that level is closer to 5400 than 6000. It's also bounced well off the 200d ma, so if it approacheds that again, I'd get set for some long positions if the economy is still sound.


----------



## GreatPig (1 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Actually that blue line on my chart down below 4200 is closer to a long-term mean.

Nice short if you can get it 

GP


----------



## theasxgorilla (2 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A bit of fun analysis on the XAO...

Currently falling down an 8x1 (very fast), but historically more likely to fall down a 4x1 or a 2x1 when correcting.  So unless the uber bears are actually right and we are in the early stages of some meltdown scenario, the velocity of the current fall should slow.


----------



## wavepicker (2 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> It should come back to the mean at least in the next few months. It had moved about 15% away from the 200d ma as well, and each time it has moved away like this the past 3 years there has been a correction of about 8ish %. It's been due, and we've been saying that in this thread since early Jan. It's still got some way to go to be a healthy chart IMO, and that level is closer to 5400 than 6000. It's also bounced well off the 200d ma, so if it approacheds that again, I'd get set for some long positions if the economy is still sound.





Only trouble kennas is that "the mean" as you call it is not really a good representation of the actual mean. The current data point on your 200 MA is reflective of the 200 MA at 101 periods ago. So your current 200MA level should actually be aligned with price point of 101 periods back.

Only then you can really establish an accurate deviation away from a nominal level and as to whether the market is at high probability for a reversal or whether it will keep trending

Cheers


----------



## CanOz (2 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is it relevant to use the channel trend lines on a 5 minute chart like this?


----------



## Sean K (2 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> Only trouble kennas is that "the mean" as you call it is not really a good representation of the actual mean. The current data point on your 200 MA is reflective of the 200 MA at 101 periods ago. So your current 200MA level should actually be aligned with price point of 101 periods back.
> 
> Only then you can really establish an accurate deviation away from a nominal level and as to whether the market is at high probability for a reversal or whether it will keep trending
> 
> Cheers



Have you got software, or a program, that does this? I'll put it on the Christmas list.


----------



## theasxgorilla (2 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> Only trouble kennas is that "the mean" as you call it is not really a good representation of the actual mean. The current data point on your 200 MA is reflective of the 200 MA at 101 periods ago. So your current 200MA level should actually be aligned with price point of 101 periods back.




I don't get this.  Can you elaborate, please.


----------



## CanOz (3 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> Is it relevant to use the channel trend lines on a 5 minute chart like this?




Can someone shed some light on my query please?


----------



## Edwood (3 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> Can someone shed some light on my query please?




Hi CanAU - you prob need a trend line along support, which would give a descending triangle - bearish continuation pattern.  fwiw out of hours we're down to low 5,700's so appears to have played out as a bearish triangle anyway (with the benefit of hidsight mind! )

hope this helps!

Ed

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....t_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle


----------



## wavepicker (3 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Have you got software, or a program, that does this? I'll put it on the Christmas list.





kennas,
most softwares will handle displacing of MA's either forward or back. Any softwares that enable you to write code and set up custom indicators are best ie :-

-Wealthlab
-MS
-Amibroker
-Excel

There are more as well but you gotta look for them

ASXGorilla

What I am saying is that the lag in the MA must be taken into consideration. 
By allowing for the lag and moving the MA back in time (by how much depends on the type of MA you are using and it's span) we are then aligning the MA with price, MA's as used conventionally are out of phase with price due to the lag component.
From here you will see that when price crosses the MA it will move an equal distance in the opposite direction (from the MA) compared to the distance to the MA previously made before crossing the MA. This is especially the case in a sharp move. In many cases price is merely acting like a pedulum. By doing this we are calibrating the equilibrium of that pendulum.

Cheers


----------



## professor_frink (3 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> kennas,
> most softwares will handle displacing of MA's either forward or back. Any softwares that enable you to write code and set up custom indicators are best ie :-
> 
> -Wealthlab
> ...



morning wavepicker,
interesting thoughts  
I've done a little bit of experimenting with displacing ma's(obviously nothing as indepth as what you're describing!), but I'm still not quite sure what you're talking about here. When looking at a chart like the one you posted, it looks easy to spot where the trend got ahead of itself, but how do you know in realtime?
By that I mean, the MA won't arrive at the current price action until 'x' periods(whatever the displacement is) after the current bar.

Do just estimate where it wil be when it catches up? Or have I completely missed the point(something I'm quite good at  )


----------



## wavepicker (3 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				professor_frink said:
			
		

> morning wavepicker,
> interesting thoughts
> 
> By that I mean, the MA won't arrive at the current price action until 'x' periods(whatever the displacement is) after the current bar.
> ...




What you have just described above is what happens when using a MA in a conventional manner. However the way I have plotted the MA on the chart, the MA is reflective of the current price bar at that particular moment in time.

When corrected, you will see that the MA is no longer either above or below the price action as used in a conventional manner. Rather the MA is now "centered". When we have small deviations either way from the MA( a slower than normal rate of price change), this would suggest for the current trend to persist (Cycle is damped). When we have large deviation from the MA to an extreme(markets tend to reverse after a climax of some sort).  The beauty of a market that has reached an extreme is that you can then estimate with reasonable accuracy where price will find either support or resistance in the subsequent move, because the subsequent move will move exactly the distance from the extreme point to the MA but in the opposite direction. 

It should be stressed that this approach is very much to be used for taking contrarian positions. It is also hugely dependant on the span of the MA you decide to use(which in itself must be a close approximation of the dominant cycle)


----------



## CanOz (3 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Edwood said:
			
		

> Hi CanAU - you prob need a trend line along support, which would give a descending triangle - bearish continuation pattern.  fwiw out of hours we're down to low 5,700's so appears to have played out as a bearish triangle anyway (with the benefit of hidsight mind! )
> 
> hope this helps!
> 
> ...




Thanks mate, i was just wondering how relevant the pattern might be on such a short term chart. I'm really interested in the SPI and XAO/XJO analysis, but i have no idea if the the same patterns and trend analysis i use for daily and weekly charts can be applied to the SPI's 5 minute charts. 

The trend had jumped out at me and i was curious. Funny though, how i didn't even see the decending triangle.

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink (3 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> What you have just described above is what happens when using a MA in a conventional manner. However the way I have plotted the MA on the chart, the MA is reflective of the current price bar at that particular moment in time.
> 
> When corrected, you will see that the MA is no longer either above or below the price action as used in a conventional manner. Rather the MA is now "centered". When we have small deviations either way from the MA( a slower than normal rate of price change), this would suggest for the current trend to persist (Cycle is damped). When we have large deviation from the MA to an extreme(markets tend to reverse after a climax of some sort).  The beauty of a market that has reached an extreme is that you can then estimate with reasonable accuracy where price will find either support or resistance in the subsequent move, because the subsequent move will move exactly the distance from the extreme point to the MA but in the opposite direction.
> 
> It should be stressed that this approach is very much to be used for taking contrarian positions. It is also hugely dependant on the span of the MA you decide to use(which in itself must be a close approximation of the dominant cycle)



Sorry wavepicker, I probably should have put it slightly differently  

How do you displace an MA backwards and have it showing a value at the current date?
I've attached a chart to illustrate. The green displaced MA, is behind the normal MA by the amount of the displacement. 

Or is your idea of moving an MA backwards different to what a charting program does to it?


----------



## nizar (3 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Seems like the XAO is moving up a well defined channel now, since the bull run started in early '03.
> 
> That puts the bottom at just under 5400 right now.
> 
> ...




Yeah i think that trendline is significant.
Below 5400 and it could be all over.
Agree with Kennas also, XAO is likely to move closer to the 200dma like on previous corrections before we can continue the uptrend.


----------



## Sean K (3 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Yeah i think that trendline is significant.
> Below 5400 and it could be all over.



Unless the States implodes then I think the market might keep going after this correction. Too much money floating about, Future Fund, profits still going up, Baby Boombers selling houses.....Hopefully the market can keep going until China starts consuming the majority of it's own trinkets and doesn't realy on the US consumer. Few years off yet perhaps.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (4 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kennas

I tend to agree with you, I do not think this is the end of days even if it does drop below 5400.

from looking at the weekly asx chart and going by what a healthy trend looks like  we have not had a real correction yet on either the weekly or the monthly chart.

I am not a bear yet, just in case I wont be quiting the day job anytime soon!


----------



## Sean K (5 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hitting support at 5700 ish, fallen through BB, oversold on Stochastics, MACD divergence looking silly, I anticipate a bit of a rest at this level and some bargain hunters to buy in. Could have another bad day, but in all probabilities should stabilise, maybe a short rally, before heading to the next support level perhaps.


----------



## Magdoran (5 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is the problem with lagging indicator styles, and a real problem with high momentum bearish moves trying to use moving average/oscillators to calculate when and where the bullish counter tends are going to come for re-entry short, or for when to take profits when short.  

The conventional use of this kind of approach in a classic ending diagonal pattern just doesn’t work, simply because these tools were specifically designed for gentler (bullish) markets.  If you try to use these without understanding their limitations it may signal long entries in the middle of a fast move down - not what you want.

So RSI, stochastics, MACD, Bollinger bands etc are susceptible to high momentum bearish moves because they are lagging way too much, especially in fast moves based on fear.  The price action and pattern I have found is a far better indication of probability – retracement tools can be beneficial used in conjunction with the pattern of trend and the price bars and volume.  But the rationale behind bullish conventional thinking about volume is I believe an error.  The underlying can accelerate down on very little volume.  The lack of buyers can be just as powerful as an abundance of sellers.  Get both and you have a capitulation move in the making.

Make no mistake about it, this is a fast move down.  Just go back to the corrections in the past and look at the chart.  Note the bullish counter trends and what they look like.  They will come in this campaign, and may appear quite strong and sharp, but these represent SELLING opportunities currently from where I sit.

When obvious support is hit and a bounce occurs, this can often be a bull trap, and once the counter trend is done, the bearish drive may well continue with a vengeance.


Regards,



Magdoran


----------



## Sean K (5 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> This is the problem with lagging indicator styles, and a real problem with high momentum bearish moves trying to use moving average/oscillators to calculate when and where the bullish counter tends are going to come for re-entry short, or for when to take profits when short.
> 
> The conventional use of this kind of approach in a classic ending diagonal pattern just doesn’t work, simply because these tools were specifically designed for gentler (bullish) markets.  If you try to use these without understanding their limitations it may signal long entries in the middle of a fast move down - not what you want.
> 
> ...



Yes, lagging indicator which I use to confirm price action as many people might do. Combined with other indicators, and the price action we get a clearer picture. Sometimes. My point in the above was that there are a few indicators, plus the price reaching a support level that would lead to a reasonable conclusion that 5700 might be support, and there may be a rebound from here. 

Totally agree with a counter trend. Investors may think they have seen a bottom and start picking up 'bargains', only to see then next fall. Wave C perhaps. As I've said, I estimate this to end at 5450 ish support. 

All the indicators have a place IMO, even BB in this case. But none of them should be used in isolation, which I do not.

Just my opinion based on the probabilities lining up. Hope I'm wrong for new investors gone long and can't see the long term picture at this moment.  

All the best,
Sean


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (5 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I estimate this to end at 5450 ish support.





Agree Sean, this is where I too see ultimate support, but if its tested now then I don't think we will see a May correction, unless the mkt recovers very very strongly after testing 5450,


----------



## chops_a_must (5 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Yes, lagging indicator which I use to confirm price action as many people might do. Combined with other indicators, and the price action we get a clearer picture. Sometimes. My point in the above was that there are a few indicators, plus the price reaching a support level that would lead to a reasonable conclusion that 5700 might be support, and there may be a rebound from here.
> 
> Totally agree with a counter trend. Investors may think they have seen a bottom and start picking up 'bargains', only to see then next fall. Wave C perhaps. As I've said, I estimate this to end at 5450 ish support.



Just looking at the chart there Kennas, I'm thinking 5650 is more likely to be support. Thus, lining it up quite well with what some people have predicted (~5260 [can't find where I read it right now]) as the 'bottom' in this particular move.


			
				magdoran said:
			
		

> So RSI, stochastics, MACD, Bollinger bands etc are susceptible to high momentum bearish moves because they are lagging way too much, especially in fast moves based on fear. The price action and pattern I have found is a far better indication of probability – retracement tools can be beneficial used in conjunction with the pattern of trend and the price bars and volume. But the rationale behind bullish conventional thinking about volume is I believe an error. The underlying can accelerate down on very little volume. The lack of buyers can be just as powerful as an abundance of sellers. Get both and you have a capitulation move in the making.



And unless we see some stability/ recovery over the next night or two, capitulation is what we will get I think.


----------



## Sean K (5 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Just looking at the chart there Kennas, I'm thinking 5650 is more likely to be support.
> 
> And unless we see some stability/ recovery over the next night or two, capitulation is what we will get I think.



Yep, I agree, 5650 ish. I did have this posted a while ago, not sure why I've moved it up to 5700. Maybe just approximating. I'm not saying it will turn on an exact price, but somewhere around this level. Plus or minus a few points. 

Just a probability, of course. There's too many factors at play to give a definitive, precise answer to the markets movements. 

Mag seems to have found a way though.

If you're there Mag, can you refer me to the thread and time that you were calling the 'crash', and the price targets you nominated. Did you also give a target price for the drop? Cheers.


----------



## Magdoran (5 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Yep, I agree, 5650 ish. I did have this posted a while ago, not sure why I've moved it up to 5700. Maybe just approximating. I'm not saying it will turn on an exact price, but somewhere around this level. Plus or minus a few points.
> 
> Just a probability, of course. There's too many factors at play to give a definitive, precise answer to the markets movements.
> 
> ...



Hello Kennas,


The price target was hard to work out for the last leg up until about 10 days out from the climax.  The cycle was about as clear cut as they come, and allowed a good forecast in time from a month out – but the cycle had to be mature enough for me to calibrate everything.

This is the beginning I think of a bear campaign that may last for months…  Best shot guess for this cycle to terminate currently is 18 July, but this really needs confirmation in the way the pattern plays out, and there are alternatives to this, but this is currently my highest probability (assuming this is a bear campaign in the weekly chart). I still need to confirm that the cycle that led to the high is still the dominant cycle, and this really requires more data.  My assumption is that it is still valid currently.

14 March and 01 April are the next key time increments.

Price is more difficult.  Three are 3 different time frames involved here.  What time frame do you want? – what price and when?  I can call some but not others with the current data and forecast…

Yes I do have targets for the drop of course… but there are many in different time frames…


Mag


----------



## wavepicker (5 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

5700 may offer some "minor support", however to me is is quite clear this market will be visiting approx 5500 or perhaps sub 5500 before we get a countertrend. So until those lecvels are reached or close to being reached, I for  one will remain short


----------



## Magdoran (5 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Yep, I agree, 5650 ish. I did have this posted a while ago, not sure why I've moved it up to 5700. Maybe just approximating. I'm not saying it will turn on an exact price, but somewhere around this level. Plus or minus a few points.
> 
> Just a probability, of course. There's too many factors at play to give a definitive, precise answer to the markets movements.
> 
> ...



Sorry, the forecast was on the Trading the SPI Gann thread, but that was time based...

I have never posted my downside targets because they are complex... and involve time points and contingencies in the pattern.


Mag


----------



## Magdoran (5 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Yep, I agree, 5650 ish. I did have this posted a while ago, not sure why I've moved it up to 5700. Maybe just approximating. I'm not saying it will turn on an exact price, but somewhere around this level. Plus or minus a few points.
> 
> Just a probability, of course. There's too many factors at play to give a definitive, precise answer to the markets movements.
> 
> ...



Ok, just pulled out my maximum crash target as an example by 18 July based on the cycle into the high, hence it is totally unconfirmed:  4178.48.

Don’t panic though since this is such a raw probability way to early to confirm, but as you can see, this is not of much value now, since it may never happen.  It’s possible, but I have no way at this point of assigning probabilities…


----------



## Sean K (5 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, 5660 at the moment which is close enough to 5650 ish support. Might have another bad day, but I think a pause here could happen. I've gone though quite a few of the top 20 stocks and they are all reaching or just breaching support lines. I suppose this might be a test of this 'support level' theory. Stochastics are off the chart. 

I'm expecting something like the May correction here.


----------



## ducati916 (5 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That EMA, whatever it is [200EMA is my guess]
That's where you'll find support over the next 2/3 weeks.
Whether it'll hold remains to be seen.

If I was *technical* which I'm not, that's where I'd be looking to get back in long. Before that point, no chance baby.

Day-trades, different kettle of fish.
Trend trading..........200EMA

jog on
d998


----------



## nizar (5 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Well, 5660 at the moment which is close enough to 5650 ish support. Might have another bad day, but I think a pause here could happen. I've gone though quite a few of the top 20 stocks and they are all reaching or just breaching support lines. I suppose this might be a test of this 'support level' theory. Stochastics are off the chart.
> 
> I'm expecting something like the May correction here.





From May to September was like a 5month sideways market.

Id really prefer like Oct2005, 8% in 3 weeks. Then onwards and upwards again.


----------



## Sean K (6 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

With weight of pressure down on the XAO, the 5650 support level may be bypassed for the next support at 5450 at this rate.


----------



## CanOz (6 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> With weight of pressure down on the XAO, the 5650 support level may be bypassed for the next support at 5450 at this rate.




ON THE TICK ITS JUST BOUNCED OFF 5627.2

Cheers,


----------



## Magdoran (6 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> With weight of pressure down on the XAO, the 5650 support level may be bypassed for the next support at 5450 at this rate.



Kennas,


How are you generating your “support” targets in price?  What method are you using?  Can you project a time point too, or is this linear horizontal support via a retracement method, or are you using some kind of moving average?

Can you project fairly precise areas of support consistently?  If you’re trading this short, where will you take profits (partial or full)?  Are you looking to play the bullish counter trend to?


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Sean K (6 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> Kennas,
> 
> How are you generating your “support” targets in price?  What method are you using?  Can you project a time point too, or is this linear horizontal support via a retracement method, or are you using some kind of moving average?
> 
> ...



Hi Mags, just previous highs and lows. Areas of conjestion. Previous highs should be support. 

I'm starting to think however, that in radical moves like this, that these support and resistance lines become less valid.

They've certainly worked for me in the past. Buy support, sell at resistance...Pretty basic stuff, but has worked in a 'stable' market. Not sure how it works in this environment. Although, perhaps this is stable: A constant flow down hill....


----------



## Magdoran (6 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Hi Mags, just previous highs and lows. Areas of conjestion. Previous highs should be support.
> 
> I'm starting to think however, that in radical moves like this, that these support and resistance lines become less valid.
> 
> They've certainly worked for me in the past. Buy support, sell at resistance...Pretty basic stuff, but has worked in a 'stable' market. Not sure how it works in this environment. Although, perhaps this is stable: A constant flow down hill....



Hello Kenas,


Not a bad method for locating potential areas of support/resistance, but remember in fast moves (especially fear driven panic moves) that these areas may not offer the same kind of effect compared to an orderly bull market trend.

Try using a retracement tool from pivot points (say a key low to a key high), and examine how bearish moves tend to behave in the horizontal divisions.  If you study enough patterns, you can work out the probabilities for price levels of support and resistance.

In this case, this is a fast corrective move which trades very differently from other patterns.  Try going back to your studies on key market tops and look at the fast corrective moves with the retracement tool for a while and see if you can see a correlation between the patterns and the divisions of the range. (Also, try doing this in weekly and monthly charts too for comparison).

You might find this enlightening to revisit this in conjunction with what you’re doing.  Hope this is helpful.


Kind Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Sean K (6 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> ON THE TICK ITS JUST BOUNCED OFF 5627.2
> 
> Cheers,



Bounced off this twice now. Too early to tell, but maybe there is some support around here. Some attempted bargain hunting coming in. Hope it is for those buying.....


----------



## chops_a_must (6 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> Ok, just pulled out my maximum crash target as an example by 18 July based on the cycle into the high, hence it is totally unconfirmed:  4178.48.
> 
> Don’t panic though since this is such a raw probability way to early to confirm, but as you can see, this is not of much value now, since it may never happen.  It’s possible, but I have no way at this point of assigning probabilities…



If this is your worst case scenario, what was your figure for the "best case" scenario on the upside? Given that we have probably seen the first lot of serious support today, what are the projections from here? I presume a bounce at this level reduces the probability of the worst case scenario?

Cheers.


----------



## Magdoran (6 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> If this is your worst case scenario, what was your figure for the "best case" scenario on the upside? Given that we have probably seen the first lot of serious support today, what are the projections from here? I presume a bounce at this level reduces the probability of the worst case scenario?
> 
> Cheers.



Best case for the bulls is a full continuation of course… but I think this is pretty unlikely given the pattern, but possible.

This kind of bullish drive is expected in such volatile markets, the norm being a 75% retracement of the first drive down for the lower high.  This can happen now, or this could be a brief 1-4 (prefer 2) day counter trend.

But this is a strong bullish move, larger than I expected at this point.

The other common situation in patterns like this is a marginal top coming in around the 25% extension from low to the first high (in this case 23rd Feb), or 12.5% extension (50% extensions can end a move but I think this is much less likely from the pattern).

So any of these are possible.

We’ll just have to wait and see…


Mag


----------



## Teddy Bear (6 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Magdoran,
Tks for that you just answered my current burning question.
TB


----------



## Sean K (6 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> Hello Kenas,
> 
> Not a bad method for locating potential areas of support/resistance, but remember in fast moves (especially fear driven panic moves) that these areas may not offer the same kind of effect compared to an orderly bull market trend.
> 
> ...



Thanks Mag, will look into it. I haven't studied the difference between fast corrective, or bullish moves, but would assume they wouldn't play out the same way, as I've alluded too. Having said that, this hasn't finished yet, and we may still see the pattern I have projected just on support and resistance. 

I also try to combine fib retractments to these sorts of patterns and if they hit support lines, and possibly a 200d ma, then they have more validity. Still, basic stuff compared to your analysis....

Interesting watching this play out. Today was a great surprise. Perhaps there's just too much money laying around for this market to stop going up and away...??

I still think this will play out over about 3-6 weeks. Not 8 days....

Sean


----------



## nizar (6 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Today was a great surprise.




Really?
Even corrections have up days.

And if we are up again 2mrw and i think we will be and XAO should hit 5800 (your target) and then fall back again.

Tomorrow the lower high should be made. That will really get the bulls excited, and see some money from the sidelines come back in.


----------



## Sean K (6 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Really?
> Even corrections have up days.
> 
> And if we are up again 2mrw and i think we will be and XAO should hit 5800 (your target) and then fall back again.
> ...



Yep, but I was very surprised by a 2% dead cat....I haven't seen a cat bounce so high. I am pretty sure it's dead though. Perhaps it was because the fall has been so sharp.....

Too early to call for me about hitting 5800 soonish. Might go sideways for a little bit, or punters might think it's too good a opportunity to lock in some losses and sell out tomorrow to live another day. I think there's still plenty of people out there sitting on paper losses from jumping on the bull a bit late. There's still too much static in the air for any clear direction IMO. 

Of course, I am hoping for a quick and simple A B C down to 5450, so we can get on with a continuation of the running of the bulls........


----------



## theasxgorilla (7 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Yep, but I was very surprised by a 2% dead cat....I haven't seen a cat bounce so high. I am pretty sure it's dead though. Perhaps it was because the fall has been so sharp.....




I had a bet on with a colleague.  He thought that we were due for another 1%+ drop today...I said that the market would not close more than 0.5% lower...I didn't expect to win the bet like this 

Coffees are on him for the rest of the week.


----------



## Bush Trader (7 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm still unsure

The question we must ask ourselves, is who is leading whom?  A small rise in the US resulted in a firm start in AUS, then strong afternoon as a result of solid gains in Asia.  Both Europe and US had a great night after the Asian rally.  Now SPI up 108.  It will be interesting to see how the Asian markets proceed this afternoon.  Will people use this opportunity to exit, or will the bulls rain supreme, dismissing such notions of the Yen carry trade as rumour and myth?


Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus (7 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hello Bush Trader,
Friday may give some indication on how strong this rally will is. Last Friday showed that there was always going to be selling pressure to the close as nobody (daytraders mostly?) wanted to left exposed to the market over the week-end. I assume it would be similar this Friday too if todays rally fizzles a bit. Sideways day Thursday maybe. I posted a thread (stagflation under the radar) about the economic news in the US being largely ignored overnight, so maybe the US will start factoring the fundamentals again, & the consequent effect for our market.


----------



## Sean K (7 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Really?
> Even corrections have up days.
> 
> And if we are up again 2mrw and i think we will be and XAO should hit 5800 (your target) and then fall back again.
> ...



XAO double topped 5800 and has just retreated dramatically to 5775. You might be correct Nizar, but too early to tell. Will be interesting to see how it finishes.


----------



## Bush Trader (7 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Bush Trader said:
			
		

> Will people use this opportunity to exit, or will the *bulls rain supreme*, dismissing such notions of the Yen carry trade as rumour and myth?
> 
> 
> Cheers




Sorry Reign not Rain, we need rain to plant the crops!


----------



## Kauri (7 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just mucking around putting a few lines on the 5min XJO...


----------



## Sean K (7 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Just mucking around putting a few lines on the 5min XJO...



Clear resistance between 5800 and 5850. 5780 ish looks to be support for now. Interesting.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (7 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Comrades,
The XJO has hit my 50% retracement level at 5825 and looks to be hitting resistance. What do we think?


----------



## Sean K (7 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Comrades,
> The XJO has hit my 50% retracement level at 5825 and looks to be hitting resistance. What do we think?



Could even be Wave B done. I was expecting this to takes weeks, not a couple of days.


----------



## theasxgorilla (7 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO looks like closing around 5791...right on the 40-day EMA.


----------



## Sean K (7 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Might have been just blind luck on this occasion, but 5650 and 5800 targets reached for wave A B. Happened a little faster than expected. 

Wonder if we'll get the Wave C to 5450? 

Lots of factors influencing this of course. Might keep pushing on up with great data out of the Evil Empire.


----------



## chops_a_must (7 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Comrades,
> The XJO has hit my 50% retracement level at 5825 and looks to be hitting resistance. What do we think?





			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Could even be Wave B done. I was expecting this to takes weeks, not a couple of days.



Perhaps sideways movment tomorrow and Friday? Followed by a breakdown either beginning on Friday, or early next week, coinciding with negative news from the US? I can't see how it can be good news in the US.

This would probably then go close to matching up Magdoran's timeframe.

In the immediate term it doesn't look good, but still looks like a good sign for the continuation of the trend after.


----------



## wintermute (8 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well I'm pretty new at this trend line drawing stuff but here is what I came up with this morning.... 




I'm making a big assumption here that we are going to follow a similar  pattern to May last year... 

Tony.


----------



## Kauri (8 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just mucking around drawing some lines on the 5min XJO...


----------



## nizar (8 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wintermute said:
			
		

> Well I'm pretty new at this trend line drawing stuff but here is what I came up with this morning....
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Hey Tony,

What points value is the right Apex of the triangle you have drawn?


----------



## wintermute (8 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Nizar, I didn't save the project... grumble grumble.. But on reloading it kinda put some of the stuff back... I believe it is at 5632 strange number but that was based on me duplicating the slope of the line further down for May last year, and it coincidentally lined up perfectly with the low point so far... 

Tony.


----------



## nizar (8 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

2mrw i think its important whether or not the XAO will burst through 5800 or whether it will face resistance there.

Good recovery from the lows 2day.


----------



## Sean K (8 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> 2mrw i think its important whether or not the XAO will burst through 5800 or whether it will face resistance there.
> 
> Good recovery from the lows 2day.



Yes, very good recovery this afternoon. But only back where it started really. This could go on for days before we get clear direction.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (8 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XJO finishes at  5822, only due to the phantom bull surge this arvo on little selling pressure?. 

A question for Fibonacci experts - what does it mean if the chart bounces between 2 fib levels eg between 50% & 38.2%?. 

From from the 10 min XJO chart, what conclusions could be had, given, as I think, that the surge this afternoon was without substance, and the data from the US over the next 2 nights could be fairly ordinary?.


----------



## lamborghini (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All the trend lines drawn here for the XAO are good and point to the uptrend being still well in place.

BUT, trends reverse some time!

There is no point trying to pick it, best to be ready for it and plan how you trade it.

In uncertain times, physcology is even more important. 

I believe last 40 minutes of Friday trading will tell the short term story!

Physcologically traders don't like leaving open positions over the weekend because if any news comes out it is usually bad news.

Is this upward movement a "Dead Cat Bounce"?  Time will tell.

I'll trade it short if it is and long if it isn't.

For the record, I predict it is a dead cat bounce and next week we will see another small fall. In the weeks and months ahead I also predict fall through supports leading to a plunge bigger than last week.  Maybe .... around MAY 2007.

There it is! Right or wrong it is in writing and only time will tell.

NOTE: I've detected some institutional money heading to BIO Techs and away from resources. I still like many resource stocks though.


----------



## Kipp (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				lamborghini said:
			
		

> For the record, I predict it is a dead cat bounce and next week we will see another small fall. In the weeks and months ahead I also predict fall through supports leading to a plunge bigger than last week.  Maybe .... around MAY 2007.
> 
> There it is! Right or wrong it is in writing and only time will tell.
> 
> NOTE: I've detected some institutional money heading to BIO Techs and away from resources. I still like many resource stocks though.



I am curious as to why you picked MAY 07, any reasoning or are you just playing Nostradamis?  From Winterminute's chart (which I quite liked) retracements in the XAO (well, the last 3 anyway...) seem to occur at roughly 7-8 month intervals... Mar 05, Oct 05, May 06 and now Feb 06... so I think we'll see our NEXT correction before May.


----------



## theasxgorilla (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> A question for Fibonacci experts - what does it mean if the chart bounces between 2 fib levels eg between 50% & 38.2%?




I think it simply confirms their validity as support and resistance levels and indicates that the index is  behaving in a nice, geometric fashion.  Should make predicting future direction easy now, right?


----------



## Sean K (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I think it simply confirms their validity as support and resistance levels and indicates that the index is  behaving in a nice, geometric fashion.  Should make predicting future direction easy now, right?



If they coincide with price support and resistance levels then they have even more probability of validity.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From what i can see on my chart using my analysis.

I am thinking this correction is over and we may start to move up again. so much buying support and yesterday was a real bullish show weak lead and so much buying support at the end of the day.

On the weekly chart the bulls are taking control also i dont belive things move in sync with the calender oct 05 correction oct 06 no correction. April 05 correction April 06 no correction.

I am looking for one more positive bar on the weekly with good volume to give confirmation.

All the people that think i am nuts please yell at me!

Just like what was said in above post only time will tell.

*above is my opinion and nothing more*


----------



## Sean K (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Jobs data out of the US soon could determine things. If they go the way some analysts think then Monday could be choppy. The only thing that is certain at the moment is uncertainty.


----------



## Kauri (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I haven't got a working understanding of volume characteristics yet but I would have thought that if this was a genuine rally it should have increasing volume, not decreasing???


----------



## >Apocalypto< (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> I haven't got a working understanding of volume characteristics yet but I would have thought that if this was a genuine rally it should have increasing volume, not decreasing???




the only thing missing for me now in voloume on the weekly.

but from what i have learn t need heavy volume on break out, deacressing volume could mean no one is selling and there is only buying.


----------



## professor_frink (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Trade_It said:
			
		

> From what i can see on my chart using my analysis.
> 
> I am thinking this correction is over and we may start to move up again. so much buying support and yesterday was a real bullish show weak lead and so much buying support at the end of the day.
> 
> ...




Not so much of a criticism here, more of a suggestion- the last couple of weeks have been a dream for anyone trading the index off support and resistance. If you can find any resistance above where we are trading this morning  , I'd be careful about opening longs.

But then again, I'm a pretty good fade, so you might wanna stay long, and watch the resistance breakdown


----------



## Uncle Festivus (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> I haven't got a working understanding of volume characteristics yet but I would have thought that if this was a genuine rally it should have increasing volume, not decreasing???




I agree. My thesis is that those that didn't sell last week are seeing where it all ends up, so the market is being driven by low volume buyers, which could evaporate on the first signs that it might be a dead cat bounce. This would then be compounded by those who were indecisive then entering on the sell side. This is where you get the more damaging correction after one's like last week. I could be proven wrong, as is the case most day's  . As with kennas, employment figures out tonight in the US may have a big impact, so people may not want to be exposed over the weekend?.


----------



## Beethoven (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> I haven't got a working understanding of volume characteristics yet but I would have thought that if this was a genuine rally it should have increasing volume, not decreasing???




Of course volume is decreasing at the sight of a correction.  People who have sold out are waiting for signs that the correction is over and that the bull is back.  Obviously people who are long, volume doesn't matter because they are long and it is possible that they are buying a bit more at a cheaper price.  People are also indecisive with the movements of the markets and sit out on the sidelines.  I believe that the fundamentals are still good in Australia and that this correction wont be a long one and was only driven because of the correction of the chinese markets which are atm recovering.


----------



## nizar (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				professor_frink said:
			
		

> the last couple of weeks have been a dream for anyone trading the index off support and resistance.




Agree


----------



## >Apocalypto< (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Beethoven said:
			
		

> Of course volume is decreasing at the sight of a correction.  People who have sold out are waiting for signs that the correction is over and that the bull is back.  Obviously people who are long, volume doesn't matter because they are long and it is possible that they are buying a bit more at a cheaper price.  People are also indecisive with the movements of the markets and sit out on the sidelines.  I believe that the fundamentals are still good in Australia and that this correction wont be a long one and was only driven because of the correction of the chinese markets which are atm recovering.




That is what the charts are telling me, this is just a respose to high rises with a freak sell off in China.


----------



## stoxclimber (9 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				professor_frink said:
			
		

> Not so much of a criticism here, more of a suggestion- the last couple of weeks have been a dream for anyone trading the index off support and resistance.




not for anyone trading following this threads predictions though!


----------



## lamborghini (10 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

MAY correction is of course just an est.   Crashes have never happened directly from a high or all time high.  So I choose May as that will give enough time for the buyers to drive it up again with a false sense of security.

look at 1929 or 1987 or even 2000 there was steady weakness (sometimes for months before) like a warning, then bang one day the sellers consistantly tip over the buyers and down she comes.  

In a 20year period the Top 20 worst months were:
Feb - 4 times
Jan,Mar,May,Sep,Oct,Nov - 2 times
Apr,Jun,Jul,Aug - 1 time
December - 0 times

Top 20 best months(surprisingly)
Oct,March,July - appeared most often in top 20

Stats can be misleading and I don't think the market cares what month it is.
Oct has historically been a good uptrending month. - But it has had 2 of the biggest falls in history too. Over time Oct would be down 1%

End of history lesson.

PS: My first ever share trade was in sept 1987  shortly after starting my first job at a stock broker. I'll never forget the frenzy of activity. The brokerage made heaps of money but knew the good times were over for a while. 

There are some similar feelings around the market now. 

A tip I was given then by a wise old broker: "The time to get out is when stocks make front page news and the average person is talking about stocks around the water cooler or coffee machine!"


----------



## Uncle Festivus (10 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I agree lambhorgini, although I don't take any notice of what month it is, the market will always do it's thing irrespective. There are only 2 things that will crack the bull run in the Australian market, that is, reduction of super money or a US recession. With no compelling reasons to sell, the XAO will just keep rising due solely to super inflows and private equity takeovers. 

I'm just wondering what effect the introduction of new super rules after June will have on super inflows. Up till then there will be an almost tidal wave of people salary sacrificing into super to be able to withdraw it tax free after 1 July. Now if a lot of baby boomers decide to spend the kids inheritance this could be the first real drawdown in funds avaiable for equity purchases which up till now has ensured the bull market just keeps on keeping on. 

Of course, if there is a US recession then there will be reduced demand for raw materials for China, and a downturn in the commodities bull, which could feed into employment directly, further reducing super inflows.


----------



## lamborghini (10 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I agree with you too Uncle.
Can you explain if there is a US recession, how Demand of resources from China would be affected though?

The superauation thing is the real deal!     Baby boomers will bring the market down.   Simple reason, super (and 401k in US) are mostly invested in the stock market.   So if someone wants to access their well deserved super, the fund manager must sell to pay them out!

Even if 10% of super funds are drawn down, it would equate to 10% extra sellers in the market, pushing the prices lower.


----------



## CanOz (11 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				lamborghini said:
			
		

> The superauation thing is the real deal!     Baby boomers will bring the market down.   Simple reason, super (and 401k in US) are mostly invested in the stock market.   So if someone wants to access their well deserved super, the fund manager must sell to pay them out!
> 
> Even if 10% of super funds are drawn down, it would equate to 10% extra sellers in the market, pushing the prices lower.




Sounds like Kiyosaki's "prophecy". He refers to it as a crash of huge proportions...maybe it will be just a long bear market.... Until the next generation does something "equitable" with thier savings....errr, sorry i mean credit.

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a (11 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hmm lets think about this logically.

Super in this country is compulsary.
There is a higher ratio of people contributing to super than liquidating Super.
Those who retire generally wont liquidate all their Super preferring some form of Annuity.

Think this Self fullfilling Super thingy is another Doomsday falacy.(Thats a personal view).


----------



## Uncle Festivus (11 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				lamborghini said:
			
		

> I agree with you too Uncle.
> Can you explain if there is a US recession, how Demand of resources from China would be affected though?




This topic has probably been debated thoroughly on other threads, but, as I see it, the effects of a slowdown in the US will incur a direct reduction in exports from China due to lower demand. And, I'm not conviced by the BRIC argument being able to 'carry' the world economy in a US downturn, as their respective economies are not robust enough to function autonomously. 

Taking China as the pinup example, there are too many 'extremes' eg extremes of growth, extremes of corruption driving this growth, extremes of overinvestment, extremes of environmental degredation, and eventually as seen recently, an extreme of market correction(s?)

The only question for me is how will our market handle bad news external to it, while still flushed with cash looking for a home?. There is another possible negative to the stockmarket recently with some funds expanding into real estate. The stockmarket may have a competitor for super funds at last?.


----------



## CanOz (11 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Hmm lets think about this logically.
> 
> Super in this country is compulsary.
> There is a higher ratio of people contributing to super than liquidating Super.
> ...




Kiyosaki only refers to the 401k plans in the US and overweight bias towards equities. His view is very "doomish", agree. 


Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus (11 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Hmm lets think about this logically.
> 
> Super in this country is compulsary.
> There is a higher ratio of people contributing to super than liquidating Super.
> ...




tech/a, if we are talking about oz, then I think it's pretty solid as far as continued inflows to super, but you would have to think there would be some percentage who would take lump sum withdrawals, due to the tax free status, is that correct?. As for the US, their super is basket case status, too little too late.


----------



## theasxgorilla (11 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> I'm just wondering what effect the introduction of new super rules after June will have on super inflows. Up till then there will be an almost tidal wave of people salary sacrificing into super to be able to withdraw it tax free after 1 July. Now if a lot of baby boomers decide to spend the kids inheritance this could be the first real drawdown in funds avaiable for equity purchases which up till now has ensured the bull market just keeps on keeping on.




I think that the baby boomers spending the kids inheritance MAY occur in some instances.  But that just means that the kids have to be clever and understand where that money will be spent and preposition their investments eg. health care sector, beachside property, retiree capital management to name a few.  Wealth will not be destroyed, it will change hands.

In anycase, I don't think that the retirees are going to really start retiring _en masse _and drawing down benefits for up to another five years.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (11 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> In anycase, I don't think that the retirees are going to really start retiring _en masse _and drawing down benefits for up to another five years.




Yes, most probably. I thought the baby boomer gen were starting to retire now/2008?. On balance though, all things being equal, up till July lot's of super money going in, after 1 July may revert to normal inflows so maybe have affect on market/XAO. Just one of those things to look out for, only 3 months away?. A bullish bias till then, flat/down after??

Talking about super, one of the rules of investing is to diversify. If everyone in Australia relies on super for their retirement, and nearly all of that is in equities, what happens if the market crashes, ie a fair dinkum one?. Talk about having all your eggs in the one basket!  I notice a couple of funds diversifying into real estate trusts now; have they woken up already or just the smart money at work?


----------



## theasxgorilla (11 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Yes, most probably. I thought the baby boomer gen were starting to retire now/2008?. On balance though, all things being equal, up till July lot's of super money going in, after 1 July may revert to normal inflows so maybe have affect on market/XAO. Just one of those things to look out for, only 3 months away?. A bullish bias till then, flat/down after??




What you describe is a key reason why I don't believe that this pullback is the beginning of a bear market.  It may be sharper and possibly deeper than other pullbacks since March '03, but the underlying reality of increasing super contributions and the 'once-off' will resume bullish price action soon enough.  As for baby boomers retiring now.  A quick trip to the financial planner is all that many need to remind them that they can't afford to retire yet.  Boomers will work until 65 (at least), even if it's part-time.  That puts us at 2012(ish) before the oldest actually retire.   



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Talking about super, one of the rules of investing is to diversify. If everyone in Australia relies on super for their retirement, and nearly all of that is in equities, what happens if the market crashes, ie a fair dinkum one?. Talk about having all your eggs in the one basket!  I notice a couple of funds diversifying into real estate trusts now; have they woken up already or just the smart money at work?




This is one of the key reasons why the US does not have compulsory super and instead has voluntary 401ks.  The conservatives thought exactly as you describe.  Thank God for Paul Keating.


----------



## CanOz (11 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Its interesting to note how many buyers came in the week following the sell off. In other minor corrections, its taken longer to see the buying return. 

To me this looks postive, at least in the short term....any other comments on this?

This is a weekly of the xao.

Cheers,


----------



## Wysiwyg (11 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> Its interesting to note how many buyers came in the week following the sell off. In other minor corrections, its taken longer to see the buying return.
> 
> To me this looks postive, at least in the short term....any other comments on this?
> 
> ...




The circled corrections show an initial drop and then a further decline of various degrees.The further decline is yet to appear  this time.Although past performance is no indication of future perfomance.


----------



## CanOz (11 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Wysiwyg said:
			
		

> The circled corrections show an initial drop and then a further decline of various degrees.The further decline is yet to appear  this time.Although past performance is no indication of future perfomance.




I realise that its early, but it just looked to me that buyers returned in force, as the close was way way off the low for last week. As opposed to the second weeks of the other corrective moves.

I can't show the volume, but i can see it on Power Etrade and the volumes are close, but less on the week after the big fall, in all of the instances including the most recent. 

Maybe its still distribution. Just seems different this time.

Cheers,


----------



## Kauri (12 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If she makes it through here it looks like the next resistance may be the 61.8% fib??


----------



## Uncle Festivus (12 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is all well & good, but is 1% per day making anybody else nervous? The lead from wall st was absent (15 points?) Japan looks to be down, so what's driving this? Is it too high too fast again, and getting ahead of itself?

It will flush out the shorts at least? Interesting day tomorrow


----------



## Porper (12 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> This is all well & good, but is 1% per day making anybody else nervous? The lead from wall st was absent (15 points?) Japan looks to be down, so what's driving this? Is it too high too fast again, and getting ahead of itself?
> 
> It will flush out the shorts at least? Interesting day tomorrow




I wonder how much of the bounce we are having is due to closing out short positions.

I agree with Kauri, we are through the 50% fib retaracement and heading towards 61.8%, and I would expect the next leg down any time now.

It should be similar in length to to wave A, which would take us under 5500.

I just can't see that we can bounce straight into new highs after the very sharp drop.I think the crowd will get more nervous as we approach old highs and away we go.....................down again.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (12 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

300 points in 5 days! Do we take a breather or charge ahead?.


----------



## theasxgorilla (12 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm not sure about tomorrow, but 5650 seems like a rather critical support level.  Breach that again anytime soon and we've got a deeper _correction_ on our hands.  Although another day like today and you'd have to start to become ever so bullish, wouldn't you?


----------



## CanOz (12 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I can't believe theres not more analysis going on here. What huge day considering the recent falls....is this distribution at its finest? I can't see the volumes for the day, but that candle looks bullish to me.

Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus (12 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> I can't believe theres not more analysis going on here. What huge day considering the recent falls....is this distribution at its finest? I can't see the volumes for the day, but that candle looks bullish to me.
> 
> Cheers,




Hi CanOz,
My simplistic approach doesn't see any volume in this surge, being a public holiday in some states and also being a Monday, when some say the super funds get their buying orders filled. Other major markets are straining tonight, we'll just have to see where the Dow finishes, but I expect a retracement tomorrow.


----------



## CanOz (12 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thats exactly what i suspected, a lack of volume. My limited experience has left me short of expectations here. Seems like a curious anomoly to me....why would such a lack of volume be able to push prices higher in the broader market at this stage?

 

Cheers,


----------



## theasxgorilla (12 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> I can't believe theres not more analysis going on here. What huge day considering the recent falls....is this distribution at its finest? I can't see the volumes for the day, but that candle looks bullish to me.
> 
> Cheers,




  It's bullish alright.

Today’s 1% rise on the XAO makes it even harder to answer the question, where are we? The "Elliott Wavers" believe that the initial drop was a wave A and this move up from the support found at 5650 is a corrective wave B.

I can tell you exactly where we are according to my (technical analysis) reference points. The XAO is now substantially above the 40-day SMA and its broken up through the 4x1 line. Today’s bullish price action is particularly intriguing as it occurred on slightly _below average_ volume. VMAers might tell you this suggests that _below average_ force was required to effect an _above average_ price move.  Adding further to this bullish picture of the XAO is the observation that 4 out of the last 5 days have closed very near to their highs.

To temper this bullish perspective, a exerpt from Prechter and Frosts 1978 Elliott Wave Principle...

_"During the A wave of a bear market, the investment world is generally convinced that this reaction is just a pullback pursuant to the next leg of advance. The public surges to the buy side despite the first really technically damaging cracks in individual stock patterns." The B-wave rallies that follow exhibit "aggressive euphoria and denial."_


----------



## CanOz (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> It's bullish alright.
> 
> Today’s 1% rise on the XAO makes it even harder to answer the question, where are we? The "Elliott Wavers" believe that the initial drop was a wave A and this move up from the support found at 5650 is a corrective wave B.
> 
> ...




WTF does it say about wave C!!!!


----------



## theasxgorilla (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> WTF does it say about wave C!!!!




If we get a zig-zag correction (a la May 06) then during a zig-zag wave C can often be as long as wave A.  Projected from today's high this puts us right at the 5480 support level, or the 50% retr. zone.


----------



## CanOz (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Struth...the next couple of days will be the critical juncture.

Still...what an amazing time to be watching...much more so than May.....for me anyway.

Cheers,


----------



## Kauri (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> It's bullish alright.
> 
> Today’s 1% rise on the XAO makes it even harder to answer the question, where are we? The "Elliott Wavers" believe that the initial drop was a wave A and this move up from the support found at 5650 is a corrective wave B.




    Not necessarily..     there's more than one way to skin a dead-cat..


----------



## Kauri (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

and not too sure about interpreting vol yet, but would todays low vol signify a lack of committment from buyers??


----------



## theasxgorilla (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Not necessarily..     there's more than one way to skin a dead-cat..




Touche  

The trend (in my eyes) is still up, so I maintain a bullish-bias.  Perhaps you can explain the possible implications (price targets?) of a 5-wave move down?


----------



## theasxgorilla (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> and not too sure about interpreting vol yet, but would todays low vol signify a lack of committment from buyers??




I intepretted it as a lack of committed sellers, therefore with the trading that did occur the buyers were forced to chase higher prices to fill their orders due to a lack of depth of sell orders.  I'm a noob at this VMA stuff though.


----------



## nizar (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ASXGorilla - 5480 is pretty close to the 200dma as well, which is where the XAO has found support on previous corrections eg. mar05, oct05, may06.

Can - Maybe you should do more than just watch theres stocks breaking out all over the place and also with CFD indices you can do well.


----------



## Kauri (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I intepretted it as a lack of committed sellers, therefore with the trading that did occur the buyers were forced to chase higher prices to fill their orders due to a lack of depth of sell orders. I'm a noob at this VMA stuff though.




  I'm a nooby too, so far I have found that  another bar or three (hic) helps to clarify it.


----------



## theasxgorilla (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Can - Maybe you should do more than just watch theres stocks breaking out all over the place and also with CFD indices you can do well.




I have some shorts in via CFD at the moment, and may place one more tomorrow.  The absolute best case for me would be that the shares I've shorted tank...the rest of my shares that I hold medium-to-long term positions in also fall (but don't stop me out) and form troughs, and then at the confirmation of the troughs and resumption of bullishness I can pyramid and away we go until October 2007.

Sound a little too good to be true?


----------



## CanOz (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> ASXGorilla - 5480 is pretty close to the 200dma as well, which is where the XAO has found support on previous corrections eg. mar05, oct05, may06.
> 
> Can - Maybe you should do more than just watch theres stocks breaking out all over the place and also with CFD indices you can do well.




Oh no, i'm FULLY commited long in two stocks atm, stops in place though. Just facinated with the price/volume characteristics of the XJO, absolutely bewildered. I will be trading long and short soon, bit of learning left to go though, thanks Nizar.

Love that comment about "more than one way to skin a dead cat"...that has got to be the comment of the year! Very clever Kauri.

Cheers,


----------



## coyotte (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I intepretted it as a lack of committed sellers, therefore with the trading that did occur the buyers were forced to chase higher prices to fill their orders due to a lack of depth of sell orders.  I'm a noob at this VMA stuff though.




This is the point that confounds me -- one often hears it on Bloomberg.

What is more important -- Lack of Sellers or Lack of Buyers?

Would have thought that the BUYER was the KEY -- after all the value of anything is what the next BUYER is willing to pay.

Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All I can say is that I saw the same volume pattern emerge in the DOW before the correction, and I see it in the XAU now. Buy orders having to be filled, sellers on the sideline waiting to see what happens?. As per earlier post, after a gain of 1% do we really think we are going to get another, especially when all states are trading tomorrow, and the DOW is down at the moment?. CBA hardly moved yesterday, banks might be showing the way for the stocks that are still overvalued at these levels, and end of ex div season?.


----------



## theasxgorilla (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> This is the point that confounds me -- one often hears it on Bloomberg.
> 
> What is more important -- Lack of Sellers or Lack of Buyers?
> 
> ...




It's complicated isn't it?

I find it's much easier to observe on the smaller-cap shares that have lower average daily volume.  In some instances you can have several days on end where volume is very low, bordering on absent.  And you know what?  That's okay, because whilst there might be buy and sell orders both higher and lower than the current bid/offer, neither side is budging.  If a large enough order enters to the buy side then it will push prices higher as it will have to work it's way up through those sell orders in the system, chasing prices higher.  This makes sense right, price moves up on high volume.  Logical.

But now think about what it would mean if price moved up substantially on below average volume.  It would mean that all the sell orders at and above current levels had dried up.  Any buyer who wanted to get even the smallest of fills would have to work his way up through thinning sell side market depth, thereby chasing prices much higher.

So, sometimes a lack of sellers can say as much as a large buy order says about what _the crowd_ thinks.

Today, on the XAO, we had a lack of sellers.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Today, on the XAO, we had a lack of sellers.




Smells like a bull trap to me. Is this the plateau day before the bystanders decide to pull the pin. The major banks are leading the way down, most in the red after the spurt this morning. The tape suggesting buy orders are being met with the sellers today, at least for the banks. March SPI and index options on Thursday, Friday the sell-off?


----------



## theasxgorilla (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks ominous, doesn't it?


----------



## Uncle Festivus (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A bit of conjecture about whether or not we are at EW point 'B', what do you think? It's back below my 61.8% fib level now.


----------



## Sean K (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Smells like a bull trap to me. Is this the plateau day before the bystanders decide to pull the pin. The major banks are leading the way down, most in the red after the spurt this morning. The tape suggesting buy orders are being met with the sellers today, at least for the banks.



Maybe. That gravestone doji yesterday maybe confirming sentiment change, sellers comming in. If it breaks 5650 on the down side then we still could find 5450 ish. Will be back closer to 200d ma then, which has been good support for the past 3 years. I did read a number of bullish reports this am suggesting confidence still out there on more gains this year. Not sure if we're done with this correction yet though. Another good opportunity and we may have a bit more weakness.


----------



## Kauri (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Maybe. That gravestone doji yesterday maybe confirming sentiment change, sellers comming in. If it breaks 5650 on the down side then we still could find 5450 ish. Will be back closer to 200d ma then, which has been good support for the past 3 years. I did read a number of bullish reports this am suggesting confidence still out there on more gains this year. Not sure if we're done with this correction yet though. Another good opportunity and we may have a bit more weakness.




   kennas,
             My charts aren't showing a gravestone doji...  didn't the XAO close on its highs??


----------



## theasxgorilla (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> A bit of conjecture about whether or not we are at EW point 'B', what do you think? It's back below my 61.8% fib level now.




The move up breaks down into 3 waves, so yes, I'd suggest that B (or 2) has concluded.


----------



## Sean K (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> kennas,
> My charts aren't showing a gravestone doji...  didn't the XAO close on its highs??



Hmmm, must be a problem with Big Charts.


----------



## Kauri (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Hmmm, must be a problem with Big Charts.



   Not sure, but the doji seems to be todays action so far???.. if so yesterdays bar might be missing??


----------



## GreatPig (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's my current EOD chart.

GP


----------



## CanOz (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Not sure, but the doji seems to be todays action so far???.. if so yesterdays bar might be missing??




LOL! I thought i had too many beers last nite, could have sworn i saw a big white candle!

Cheers,


----------



## Kauri (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Resistance becomes support... temporarily???


----------



## dodgers (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's todays t/a view from macquarie..

_The market was unable to hold the break of Fibonacci resistance at 5884, finding rejection today. I see the retreat as the start of next major downwave of a sequence that began at the 6050 February high. This process should take the index to a break of the recent 5614 low, with downside risk to the 5486 January low. A break of support at 5833 would provide
a degree of bearish confirmation. Alternatively, renewed gains to a break of the 5922 resistance would suggest that something altogether far more positive is unfolding, necessitating a re-think._


----------



## Porper (13 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				dodgers said:
			
		

> Here's todays t/a view from macquarie..
> 
> _The market was unable to hold the break of Fibonacci resistance at 5884, finding rejection today. I see the retreat as the start of next major downwave of a sequence that began at the 6050 February high. This process should take the index to a break of the recent 5614 low, with downside risk to the 5486 January low. A break of support at 5833 would provide
> a degree of bearish confirmation. Alternatively, renewed gains to a break of the 5922 resistance would suggest that something altogether far more positive is unfolding, necessitating a re-think._





I think they are correct.

Wave B is probably complete now.A rejection of higher prices today, and that after wall street doing well overnight.Wave C is going to be long.

Who dare go short ?????????


----------



## Kauri (14 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well you don't see 23.6% Fib mentioned often but it has come to the rescue today...


----------



## lamborghini (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This weeks dip finally came! Glad I put money where my mouth was last week and Short sold BHP & NAB.

Although there may be inflows from Ausie Super until June I don't see the reason people will buy on mass with these inflated prices and PE ratios.

Of course, each stock needs to be considered on its own.

This is still only a corrective stage still, but FEELING more like 1987 every day!

Looking at the market facts:
It's taking much more "good news"  to hold/drive up shares. While a hint of bad news is creating record sell-offs.

Just normal market factors will drive this baby down let alone a war or terror attack.   Too much bad news possible and too many traders around that have only seen upwards movement and think it will always be so!

I'm not into dooms day or anything just a realist! Hard to maintain clarity sometimes when your making good money!

Now that I've learned to make a bit of money up or down I'm just not biased which way the market goes!


----------



## theasxgorilla (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Volatility anybody?


----------



## Atomic5 (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Any thoughts on this relentless rally today?
Someone just came in the room and noted that if you turn it upside down you get yesterdays chart.


----------



## Porper (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Any thoughts on this relentless rally today?
> Someone just came in the room and noted that if you turn it upside down you get yesterdays chart.




I am amazed by the extent of the rally today.Don't really know what to make of it.Finished on it's highs on very large volume.Very Bullish on it's own.

However when you look to the left of the chart at the preceding price action, obviously not all is well.

Very confusing.


----------



## theasxgorilla (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Any thoughts on this relentless rally today?
> Someone just came in the room and noted that if you turn it upside down you get yesterdays chart.




The APPT perhaps?

"Aussie Plunge Protection Team"??


----------



## Atomic5 (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I wish that was funny


----------



## rico01 (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Any thoughts on this relentless rally today?
> Someone just came in the room and noted that if you turn it upside down you get yesterdays chart.





I think it one of those rubber catsthey bounce high you   .


----------



## Edwood (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Porper said:
			
		

> I am amazed by the extent of the rally today.Don't really know what to make of it.Finished on it's highs on very large volume.Very Bullish on it's own.
> 
> However when you look to the left of the chart at the preceding price action, obviously not all is well.
> 
> Very confusing.




no doubt there are a lot of shorts having to reverse, bit of a bear trap on Dow today, comfortably went through 12,000 to suck in more shorts then it rallied hard as it reversed & the shorts covered.  I'd imagine its a similar picture on ASX


----------



## Atomic5 (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dead rubber cat falling from sky tommorrow ....

... or later, or _not_.....

Is the cyclic nature of the market no longer recogniseable because it is so tampered with?  

I think it was either Bloomberg or CNN that did a spot on naked short sellers today, just after the incredible DOW close, about how you can either buy or sell _%1000 _ of a company, ie: stocks that don't exist.

 what the .....?!


----------



## Uncle Festivus (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Dow up 0.5%, S&P500 up 0.7%, the XAO up 1.8%. Mmmm something out of balance here. Either the US markets are lagging or our market is overconfident.

Next critical level for XAO is the old bounce back high between 5870 & 5890, another 1% away. The local climate is looking good, just don't know how much the US is going to hold it back. 

The US financial oligarchs are firmly in control, but for how long?.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There is something out of balance, the XAO has had some froth skimmed till January, the Dow is sitting at Novembers levels.

But then again UF you were spouting GM would be bailed out by the Fed last night just prior to their 3Q profits , not to mention hysteria on the lower end of the leverage market getting squeezed causing all the domino's to fall instantly!.

What pie is youre finger in Festy, or are you going to be noisy for weeks to come.


----------



## Sean K (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> The Dow up 0.5%, S&P500 up 0.7%, the XAO up 1.8%. Mmmm something out of balance here. Either the US markets are lagging or our market is overconfident.



I just think our economy is at a different stage to the US. We're generally pretty solid, low jobless rate, interest low, good company profits, and people can just afford to buy a house. Dramatic rises in rates will effect us, but the next change might be down. US recession will eventually effect us but not for a while.


----------



## Nick Radge (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It was futures expiry today. If you look closely you will see many stocks had very high volumes which is the arb's unwinding their positions. If you also take a look at the opening you will see some massive parcels - many from ABN Amro Morgan.


----------



## wayneL (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Follow the Yen. It's the leading indicator at the moment.

$0.02


----------



## Kauri (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting to see that the stock ASX only managed to put on 1/4% today....


----------



## Uncle Festivus (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> There is something out of balance, the XAO has had some froth skimmed till January, the Dow is sitting at Novembers levels.
> 
> But then again UF you were spouting GM would be bailed out by the Fed last night just prior to their 3Q profits , not to mention hysteria on the lower end of the leverage market getting squeezed causing all the domino's to fall instantly!.
> 
> What pie is youre finger in Festy, or are you going to be noisy for weeks to come.




Hello 'doingkinkystuffinrubber'   

No, I wasn't talking literally last night, but it's a possibility in the future as there is some conjecture about the strength of their balance sheet. There was talk of bankruptcy not so long ago, & I don't see them selling many more cars, less so in a possible recession maybe. Got a finger in the house loan business too - a good combo.

Domino's falling instantly, no I didn't say that - it will take time; you have heard of derivatives?

My pie is a gold plated cash pie.

What's your pie made of these day's?  Any predictions?


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Cheers Festy,

My coffee's had some froth skimmed, but considering its nearly full and was empty at the start, it was long overdue .

How far the band unwinds is anyones guess, certainly many pigs have had their heads in the trough of late. Its my sneaky suspicion that the little ones who got a leg up to reach the trough will squeel first......I'll start to worry when the big ones stop picking at their bones and the trough's empty.


As for the predictions on the noise, wouldn't have a clue


----------



## Kimosabi (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I just think our economy is at a different stage to the US. We're generally pretty solid, low jobless rate, interest low, good company profits, and people can just afford to buy a house. Dramatic rises in rates will effect us, but the next change might be down. US recession will eventually effect us but not for a while.




We aren't much different to the US at all, they've got very low unemployment, low interest rates, good company profits etc.  NSW, VIC aren't far from Recession.  If it wasn't for the commodities boom Australia would probably be in recession already.

Now with the US looking like it's going into recession and the US Consumer's ATM drying up, consumer spending, housing and business investment will start drying up, that means less demand for goods from China, which then means less demand for our commodities and commodity prices going down.

This then means that unemployment goes up and all those people who bought their over-priced assets can't pay off their mortgages and credit card debt.  This then means that Housing and share prices start coming down because people have to sell their shares/houses to try pay off the debts.

The only thing we don't have that the US has is an over-supply of housing and that's about it.  It won't take much to turn the Australian economy on it's head and the Achilles heal is most people have way too much debt.


----------



## Dr Doom (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes it's a simple equation Kimosabi, so I wonder why it's not being understood?. Australia is too reliant on being the worlds quarry; then again, we have stuff all else to give them.


----------



## TheAbyss (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Isn't the fact that we do have something to sell, (commodites) a good thing? At least we have something to prop us up and ride things out.

Saying that we would be in a recession without the commodities boom is like saying we would be naked if we didnt have our pants on! We have them and that is the salvation to get us through the other market pressures.

Forgive me if i am over simplifying things please.


----------



## wintermute (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Now I realise that this chart is of the Dow and not the XAO, but since our market seems to have a bit of an obsession with what the US does (although if you plot the XAO against the DJIA over the last 5 years there is actually quite a decoupling) I thought I'd post it.

I wish I didn't look at this this morning actually, as I've been tense all day as a result... even two glasses of wine hasn't helped relax the shoulders... I know I should just get over it, but I've been stressing about whether I should have sold more... conflicted at the moment, because I feel some of my holdings could be ready to take off any time (wishful thinking I suspect) so don't want to sell them down..... 




Basically I'm just looking at patterns here, and it could be nothing, but if we follow what happened last may, then expect that drop to 5400 to start real soon now  

Tony.


----------



## theasxgorilla (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Yes it's a simple equation Kimosabi, so I wonder why it's not being understood?. Australia is too reliant on being the worlds quarry; then again, we have stuff all else to give them.




Tourism.  Where is you national pride man???


----------



## Seaking (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> The APPT perhaps?
> 
> "Aussie Plunge Protection Team"??




I've called them the "Aussie Pattern Painting Team"
For the last few weeks they have been busy painting triangles and flags to lure us in and then pounce on the breakout and beat it to a pulp.. Today they seem to have changed tactics and used their considerable technical talents and deep pockets to fill some gaps... What a team!!!


----------



## coyotte (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As well as Nick's explanation ,

Don't know if anyones noticed on their charts -- BUT
IMO some of the XJO stocks have some very bullish signals from yesterday.

BHP --- some GAPS up there that need filling ??
JMB --- forming a Ascending Triangle ??
ALL --   Broke out of a Ascending Triangle into a possible Straddle ???
ZFX --   Forming a Eq- Triangle from yesterday ? and a nice GAP to fill.


This Correction , if it is one, may not play out as simple as most of us are assuming .
After all it's a correction in EW analysis --- other schools may have different view

Cheers


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kimosabi said:
			
		

> We aren't much different to the US at all, they've got very low unemployment, low interest rates, good company profits etc.  NSW, VIC aren't far from Recession.  If it wasn't for the commodities boom Australia would probably be in recession already.
> 
> Now with the US looking like it's going into recession and the US Consumer's ATM drying up, consumer spending, housing and business investment will start drying up, *that means less demand for goods from China, which then means less demand for our commodities and commodity prices going down.*
> 
> ...





Your equation makes a very big assumption,

You assume that reduced consumption in the US = Reduced buying of Chinese Exports = Reduced Commodity Prices,

What About the others in BRIC? Brazil, India and Russia?

Also China does have domestic consumption now you know, A hell of alot of Chinese are buying Fridges, Microwaves, TV's even cars, alot of domestic demand there


----------



## coyotte (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Your equation makes a very big assumption,
> 
> You assume that reduced consumption in the US = Reduced buying of Chinese Exports = Reduced Commodity Prices,
> 
> ...




But if the world's biggest market does a Humpty Dumpty --- How is Asia going to fill the shortfall of orders?


Cheers


----------



## wayneL (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Also China does have domestic consumption now you know, A hell of alot of Chinese are buying Fridges, Microwaves, TV's even cars, alot of domestic demand there



They can only afford the domestic consumption because of income from exports.

Export market goes kerplunk, domestic consumption goes kerplunk also.


----------



## surfingman (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> But if the world's biggest market does a Humpty Dumpty --- How is Asia going to fill the shortfall of orders? Cheers




298,444,215 peoples spending power is are hard to replace



> Also China does have domestic consumption now you know, A hell of alot of Chinese are buying Fridges, Microwaves, TV's even cars, alot of domestic demand there.




I have a friend in China a factory manager is on $125 US a month, she said its an average wage for that sector, not much disposable income over there with the large gap in demographics of wages.


----------



## Dr Doom (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Your equation makes a very big assumption,
> 
> You assume that reduced consumption in the US = Reduced buying of Chinese Exports = Reduced Commodity Prices,
> 
> ...




The wealth does not filter down to that level my friend. As per above post, the reason why China is exporting junk to the world is because they pay peanuts for wages ie no purchasing power, barely enough to live by, in a polluted, corrupt system. Unemployment is high, lots of empty apartment blocks. The China story is a sham.


----------



## nizar (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wintermute said:
			
		

> Now I realise that this chart is of the Dow and not the XAO, but since our market seems to have a bit of an obsession with what the US does (although if you plot the XAO against the DJIA over the last 5 years there is actually quite a decoupling) I thought I'd post it.




Exactly every1 thinks we follow the US markets but if you look in 2005 the DOW was flat and XJO returned about 20%. Fair difference.


----------



## CanOz (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				surfingman said:
			
		

> 298,444,215 peoples spending power is are hard to replace
> 
> 
> 
> I have a friend in China a factory manager is on $125 US a month, she said its an average wage for that sector, not much disposable income over there with the large gap in demographics of wages.




125 USD per month, are you kidding....or is she? A factory manager in China would pull in at least 600 USD per month. If you want i can get you the national average.

Cheers,


----------



## surfingman (15 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The national average would be interesting to know if you can get it, thats what she told me 125US a month for managing a factory not sure of size.


----------



## theasxgorilla (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Exactly every1 thinks we follow the US markets but if you look in 2005 the DOW was flat and XJO returned about 20%. Fair difference.




I'm sure there is a correlation, but I would call it moderate...not strong.  During the period you refer to it was low.


----------



## Kimosabi (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Your equation makes a very big assumption,
> 
> You assume that reduced consumption in the US = Reduced buying of Chinese Exports = Reduced Commodity Prices,
> 
> ...




What you have to realise is the US economy is nearly half of the Worlds economy.

That's why when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.

And let me give you the tip, the US is developing a nasty bout of pneumonia.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kimosabi said:
			
		

> What you have to realise is the US economy is nearly half of the Worlds economy.
> 
> That's why when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.
> 
> And let me give you the tip, the US is developing a nasty bout of pneumonia.




Thanks for the tip, allow me to return the favour,

Be careful when betting against the US consumer, they've proven to be very resiliant in the past


----------



## Atomic5 (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I heard a report saying that the US market comprises only 25% of the Asian export market, and that since the possible collapse of the US dollar seemed an issue last year, especially during the May-Sept period 2006, that the European markets have looked at steps at minimising their vulnerability to the US market, should it capitulate.

_IF_ the two recent panic dips could be seen as Yen based rather than US consumer market based .... then perhaps the rest of the world might be able to get on with it without them, should the US go under.

But that's _IF._ The last two panics sure seemed US based. 

I also can't see that the US Fed will _allow_ this bull run to end until late April 2007, and not at least until the Chinese raise rates. Im also basing this on last year, when the market faltered in Feb but then rallied hard until the end of April before the Chinese rate rise which arrived 1st May.

(Thats my opinion but I always get it _wrong_)


----------



## theasxgorilla (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> I heard a report saying that the US market comprises only 25% of the Asian export market, and that since the possible collapse of the US dollar seemed an issue last year, especially during the May-Sept period 2006, that the European markets have looked at steps at minimising their vulnerability to the US market, should it capitulate.




I'd agree with this...if you go to Europe and buy stuff you'd be surprised how much is being manufactured locally.  Spain, Turkey, Italy, eastern Europe.  You don't get the inundation of Chinese imports that you get here.


----------



## Atomic5 (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I'd agree with this...if you go to Europe and buy stuff you'd be surprised how much is being manufactured locally.  Spain, Turkey, Italy, eastern Europe.  You don't get the inundation of Chinese imports that you get here.



Gorilla

Dont forget Germany, who competes with China in the 'Penny Market' goods area (including food, electrical, some IT, furniture, cars etc.) in that German goods are as cheap, only made with German technology, which is better quality. They even ousted a discount US chain who wanted to move into the German market but failed to gain a foothold.

Note also there are not that many Asian cars in Europe, even though there are a LOT of small cars. Even Mercedes makes a 2 cylinder which is just everywhere.

And if you remember it was GM who wanted to buy FIAT when FIAT was in trouble 2 years ago. FIAT rejected the offer and their share price has since doubled, looking to triple, having regained it's EU market share, while GMs lot has looked a lot worse.

There might be a lesson there.

That said, there are still a lot of Chinese products on the EU market, and there must still be enough risky interdependence with the US because they all go into shock, even more than the Australasian markets, at the mere hint of a US recession.


----------



## Atomic5 (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Someone just called the US dollar a "DOG" on Bloomberg.


----------



## Kimosabi (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Someone just called the US dollar a "DOG" on Bloomberg.




Source???


----------



## Dave31 (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

are we seeing a friday sell off here?


----------



## Sean K (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kimosabi said:
			
		

> Source???



Golly, there are so many analysts calling the US $ a dog or simliar, we hardly need a quote. This has been known for some time. Well, I thought it had anyway.


----------



## Atomic5 (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kimosabi said:
			
		

> Source???




Im looking for it on the internet, and/or waiting for for them to rerun the interview.

Bernard Lo on Bloomberg was interviewing someone about the US $ meltdown (that again) and he just blurted out that [someone - I didn't catch the name] called the US $ a "dog".


----------



## Sean K (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Dave31 said:
			
		

> are we seeing a friday sell off here?



Punters taking strength to clear positions before the uncertainty of the overnight action.


----------



## Kauri (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Double, double toil and trouble,
Fire burn and caldron bubble.


----------



## Kauri (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Re last post...

  Triple witching is for the US markets tonight...


----------



## bean (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Triple Witching-Us markets watch closely
http://www2.barchart.com/mktcom.asp?code=BSTK&section=indices


----------



## tech/a (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ever thought that this "May" not be the top?

I think there is evidence that it may not be yet.
I havent the time to post up the "evidence" today but will do so over the weekend.

*While not yet conclusive it is compelling*--well I think so.
Against the tide of opinion.


--6415-6435--


Yeh yeh I know I'm a nutter.


----------



## Atomic5 (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You're saying it will (edit: might, looks like it will) rally until the end of April like last year?


----------



## nomore4s (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Ever thought that this "May" not be the top?
> 
> I think there is evidence that it may not be yet.
> I havent the time to post up the "evidence" today but will do so over the weekend.
> ...




Be nice if you're right, looking forward to seeing the "evidence"


----------



## Rogue Trading (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry for the late post but it has took a day for me to get registered.
The yanks were up .5 % & the xao goes up 1.8%. What goes here? The xao seems to go down slow and back up quick. So much for up on the stairs and down on the elevator. Seems like the other way round at the moment.
Are we that much better than the rest of the world?
theasxgorilla who is the aussie plunge protection team?
Waynel   nice bear skin.

Regards.
Rogue Trading


----------



## wayneL (16 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Rogue Trading said:
			
		

> Sorry for the late post but it has took a day for me to get registered.
> The yanks were up .5 % & the xao goes up 1.8%. What goes here? The xao seems to go down slow and back up quick. So much for up on the stairs and down on the elevator. Seems like the other way round at the moment.
> Are we that much better than the rest of the world?
> theasxgorilla who is the aussie plunge protection team?
> ...



Haha! I love the nick, good one.


----------



## Sean K (17 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Might be a bit of short term support estab at 5800, which will be tested Monday. Our Wednesday is going to be crucial next week. Expectations of poor housing data out of the US on their Tuesday morning is going to push the market significantly one way or the other. General view seems to be bad karma from what I've read. Batten down the hatches on Wednesday morning! Or get some shorts in Tuesday afternoon maybe......Maybe. 




			
				Reuters said:
			
		

> *Housing may feed stocks' angst in a Fed week*
> Fri Mar 16, 2007 5:37PM EDT
> 
> By Cal Mankowski
> ...



http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1623976920070316?pageNumber=1


----------



## theasxgorilla (17 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Rogue Trading said:
			
		

> theasxgorilla who is the aussie plunge protection team?




Someone to blame when the _correction we had to have_ doesn't go as deep as it ought to and tech/a's Elliott Wave count manifests in the form of a new all-time-high.


----------



## ducati916 (18 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Rogue Trading said:
			
		

> Sorry for the late post but it has took a day for me to get registered.
> The yanks were up .5 % & the xao goes up 1.8%. What goes here? The xao seems to go down slow and back up quick. So much for up on the stairs and down on the elevator. Seems like the other way round at the moment.
> Are we that much better than the rest of the world?
> theasxgorilla who is the aussie plunge protection team?
> ...




It may have more to do with the inability, or greater difficulty of shorting the market for the non-institutional trader on the ASX than US bourses.

Also and this is merely an observation on my part, I trade/invest in the US and tend to monitor the US closely, so a bias as well but; the US as a trading community is far more bearish than the ASX guy's [this forum] who are still generally bulls looking to resume the trend up.

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916 (18 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For the charties who love this stuff, check out these two;



jog on
d998


----------



## nizar (18 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> For the charties who love this stuff, check out these two;
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Duc,

Bullmarket resumed after the period shown on the left chart in 1998-1999, so the bullmarket will resume soon for us??


----------



## ducati916 (18 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Duc,
> 
> Bullmarket resumed after the period shown on the left chart in 1998-1999, so the bullmarket will resume soon for us??




That's the point, the bullmarket died at that point.
The index went marginally higher until March 2000 and goodnight.

New highs should not of their own accord define the market, unless there is broad participation. This participation in a purely *technical* sense is missing again in the US

More importantly the sectors that led the market higher, are dying and may very well lead the market lower.

jog on
d998


----------



## Atomic5 (18 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Might be a bit of short term support estab at 5800, which will be tested Monday. Our Wednesday is going to be crucial next week. Expectations of poor housing data out of the US on their Tuesday morning is going to push the market significantly one way or the other. General view seems to be bad karma from what I've read. Batten down the hatches on Wednesday morning! Or get some shorts in Tuesday afternoon maybe......Maybe.
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1623976920070316?pageNumber=1




Am I the only person who sees Bernanke as the boogey man? Must come from living overseas and seeing his every waking breathing moment last year live on cable 24 hours a day thru winter. I started seeing him as the US dollar's greatest ever weapon of mass destruction after watching his alleged and torturous market-crippling struggle against inflation from May-September last year. Everytime he uttered the word "inflation" the market would panic & dive. (It didn't help that it was one of the coldest iciest winters an Australian overseas could ever wish not to experience, to add the the unpleasant memory of it - cold, dark and depressed.)

Hence, Bernanke's mouth scares the hell out of me ... He is criticised by some as being too Keynesian in his economic philosophy (Keynes is post WWI !)

The Fed meets next week (Tues Wed) and unless I have it all wrong, they want him to drop rates in order to help the US housing market: ie - if house prices in the US manage to regain 10% of their value, apparently the fallout from the subprimes will be contained. 

If house prices fall 10% as expected, the fallout will cause all sorts of illnesses everywhere. 

If Bernanke pulls out his "hawkish" inflation myopia this week, investors will probably start running helter skelter .... inflation data/indicators were a little higher than expected Friday.

Then we'll have US inflation/Fed rates-control panic plus the sub-prime fallout. And I am not even a bear. 

http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/bernanke.jpg
young bernanke


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (18 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

To all those who are citing the old equation 

US Slowdown = Reduced consumption of Chinese Exports = Reduced Chinese Demand for Commodities = Reduced Commodity Prices

Have a read of this http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=9&id=5102

Also see that figure for reserves? $1.1 TRILLION US!

All those who have been or are in China will agree that the Govt is going nuts getting China ready for the 2008 Olympics, PRIDE is a very big thing over there so "The New China" must be ready for the world to see no matter what the cost!

We have at least 1 year left minimum in this Commodity Boom - Minimum!


----------



## Atomic5 (18 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> To all those who are citing the old equation
> 
> US Slowdown = Reduced consumption of Chinese Exports = Reduced Chinese Demand for Commodities = Reduced Commodity Prices




It will stop when the media stops placing the US at the centre of the universe. It seems very hard to convince the old boys that the US does not rule and that our collective future prosperity has not been designated to the bad consumer tastes of millions of polyester clad SUV driving mall-crawling lard butts.


----------



## nizar (18 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> That's the point, the bullmarket died at that point.
> The index went marginally higher until March 2000 and goodnight.




Marginally higher??
It almost touched 12000 at the peak, or about 15% higher than the 10300 dispayed on your chart.

But your point is valid.

The weakness signalled the beginning of the end.


----------



## theasxgorilla (18 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> It will stop when the media stops placing the US at the centre of the universe. It seems very hard to convince the old boys that the US does not rule and that our collective future prosperity has not been designated to the bad consumer tastes of millions of polyester clad SUV driving mall-crawling lard butts.




Media is a powerful tool, is it not?  I'm sure Mr Murdoch would like us to all continue to believe that the US is the lynch-pin of our well-being and prosperity.  When I consider the alternatives...Russia, China...I still think that US/UK national security values are better aligned with Australia.


----------



## wayneL (18 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> The Fed meets next week (Tues Wed) and unless I have it all wrong, they want him to drop rates in order to help the US housing market: ie - if house prices in the US manage to regain 10% of their value, apparently the fallout from the subprimes will be contained.



This is the dilemma for  BB, lower interest rates and bye-bye to a USD already in trouble. This will increase INflationary pressures in the US making interest rates negative in real term (already close to that) and destroy the incentive to save at all. This temporary prop would make things far worse later.

USD chart


----------



## Atomic5 (19 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> When I consider the alternatives...Russia, China...I still think that US/UK national security values are better aligned with Australia.




Yes, I agree. But during 'panics' the market demand and supply balance in the resources market is often sited, and in that area there are very different circumstances for each country:

The UK has a % (?) of companies who have mining $ interests in Africa, Australia, even Canada, etc - resources for export.

The USA's ambition with regard to resources appears to also be self-sufficiency, and 'on-shore' in the sense that if they dig up Uranium in eg: Colorado, it's to power their own stations. If they dig up oil it's to oil their own plants and cars etc and to rid themselves of a dependency on hostile 3rd world suppliers.

With Australia, the population's needs are small compared to the resources available, so the idea is to export the excess to China and others at a premium. 

In this scenario, *in simple terms*, the US is not the centre of the universe for Australia, given that the US is supposeldy only 25% of the Asian export market, and _should_ be able to survive any US crash quite well.


----------



## Dr Doom (19 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> US Slowdown = Reduced consumption of Chinese Exports = Reduced Chinese Demand for Commodities = Reduced Commodity Prices




_One half of the "Reduced demand for commodities" equation (above) is probable, the other half (below) is fact._

The US may/may not go into reccession, China actively trying to cool things down. If the cycles line up..... not god for commodity based Oz

~~~~~~~~
BEIJING (AP) -- China's central bank said Saturday it will raise key interest rates by more than a quarter percentage point in a move to cool torrid economic growth -- the fourth increase in a year.
The 0.27 percentage point hike in one-year deposit and lending benchmark rates will go into effect Sunday, the People's Bank of China said.

That would raise lending rates to 6.39 percent and deposit rates to 2.79 percent, the bank said in a statement on its Web site.

The new rates will "promote the good, fast development of the national economy" by guiding an increase in credit and investment, preserving price stability and steady operation of the financial system, the statement said.

The rate hike is the latest in a series of measures China's leaders have taken to slow an economy they fear is running at an unsustainable pace. Four years of double-digit economic growth, largely driven by investment and exports, have left the financial system flush with cash.

In recent months Chinese leaders have been sounding the alarm about excessive lending, worried that it would push growth too fast and thereby accelerate recently rising inflation or touch off a debt crisis if imprudently made loans go bad.

Low deposit rates have also encouraged a rush by ordinary Chinese into the country's buoyant stock markets, exposing them to greater risks as a two-year bull market begins to flag.

Premier Wen Jiabao, at a news conference Friday, ticked off a list of economic problems, citing *excessive investment, credit and liquidity * and swelling foreign exchange reserves.

"My mind is full of concerns," he told reporters.


----------



## theasxgorilla (19 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> With Australia, the population's needs are small compared to the resources available, so the idea is to export the excess to China and others at a premium.
> 
> In this scenario, *in simple terms*, the US is not the centre of the universe for Australia, given that the US is supposeldy only 25% of the Asian export market, and _should_ be able to survive any US crash quite well.




I lean this way myself, but I don't have any hard facts to substantiate.  My money remains in the Aust market in any case, so my bets are placed   I hope you (we) are right!


----------



## Atomic5 (19 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As we speak various opinions are doing the internet rounds: here's an article circulating under different titles for the same article eg: 'Asia, Europe Wont Survive US Meldown', to 'Why Catch Cold if the US Sneezes'.

I like the Golman Sachs London opinion:

_"O'Neill says the world economy can "decouple" from the U.S. "The evidence is pretty strongly in our favor."_

[_

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/editorial/detail.asp?ID=104914&GRP=i

*Europe, Asia can't stand U.S. slowdown*
2007/3/18
By Michael R. Sesit Bloomberg

As the US$13.3 trillion U.S. economy slows, will the rest of the world pick up the slack? 

It's a question that has bedeviled economists. The debate over whether global growth can weather a steep U.S. slowdown has all the earmarks of a number-crunching exercise, and it is already having an effect on stock prices in Asia and Europe. 

The U.S. economy is slowing. Gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter compared with 5.6 percent in the first three months of 2006. [ .... ]

"We see some downside risks to our own U.S. forecast, which is below consensus," says Jim O'Neill, Goldman Sachs's global head of economic research in London. He notes the recent increase in stock-market volatility, widening credit spreads and the potential unraveling of the yen-carry trade. 
O'Neill says the world economy can "decouple" from the U.S. "The evidence is pretty strongly in our favor." 

[ .... ]

The 13-country euro area, Japan, the U.K. and the four so- called BRIC countries -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- all reported stronger growth in the fourth quarter than the U.S., he says. "It appears that the U.S. has indeed stopped being the 'engine' of world growth." 

The ability of other countries to emerge from the U.S. economy's long shadow may reflect more wishful thinking than logic. No doubt, it will eventually happen, especially as some of the bigger emerging countries mature. Right now, the world still needs the U.S. consumer. 

The global economy is too dependent on exports to the U.S., whose trade deficit was US$765.3 billion in 2006, while Asia and Europe lack sufficient domestic demand to offset reduced U.S. spending on overseas goods, says Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. _ 

[ .... ] 

_The U.S. accounts for 24 percent of Japan's total exports, 84 percent of Canada's, 86 percent of Mexico's and about 40 percent of China's, he says. 
Just as China is dependent on the U.S., other countries rely on Asia's second-largest economy. So a U.S. slowdown that hurts China will reverberate in Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and commodity producers such as Russia, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Brazil. 

The earnings of European companies' U.S. units plunged 64 percent in 2001, according to Quinlan. Those declines in the biggest and most-profitable market for many German, U.K., French and Dutch enterprises resulted in reduced orders, lower profit, slower job growth and weak business confidence. After expanding 3.9 percent in 2000, euro-area growth shrank to 1.9 percent in 2001, 0.9 percent in 2002 and 0.8 percent in 2003. 
"As the U.S. economy decelerates and as the dollar continues its slide, Europe will sink or swim with the U.S. in 2007," Quinlan says. Affiliates of European Union companies generate 42 percent of their non-EU earnings in the U.S., he says. 

If the naysayers are wrong about decoupling and Goldman Sachs is right, the world may even help the U.S. economy through its slowdown, O'Neill says. 
"If the U.S. has a massive housing correction, what better time to do it than when the rest of the world can help pick up the slack." 

"Happy Slowdown" is his motto. 
The U.S. will be hoping O'Neill is right. _


----------



## Atomic5 (19 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> _One half of the "Reduced demand for commodities" equation (above) is probable, the other half (below) is fact._
> 
> BEIJING (AP) -- China's central bank said Saturday it will raise key interest rates by more than a quarter percentage point in a move to cool torrid economic growth -- the fourth increase in a year.




OK good point. Do you have a date for the article, or more importantly a date for the rate rise and link to the article?


----------



## Dr Doom (19 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> OK good point. Do you have a date for the article, or more importantly a date for the rate rise and link to the article?




It was orginally posted by Ducati in the Gold Price thread - 

AP
China Announces 0.27 Pct. Rate Hike
Saturday March 17, 2:23 pm ET 
By Audra Ang, Associated Press Writer

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/67e92d54-d54d-11db-a5c6-000b5df10621.html


----------



## Atomic5 (19 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's already happened! on the weekend,  ...   
phew! and the market took it quite well so far. I was going to go %100 cash when that happened Im so nervous.


----------



## Rogue Trading (19 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Re: Aussie Plunge Protection Team, on further thought over the weekend, could the Team be Mining Giants? After record corp. profits could they have funds set aside to prop up any falls? As we appear to be one giant quarry, could the biggest quarry players prop up the entire market?
In the correction so far the yanks are down appox. 8%. Aussies down appox. 3.5 %. Go figure? 

Rouge Trading


----------



## Atomic5 (19 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

More from my previous article. 

_Goldman Sachs predicts Japan and the euro area will grow 2.4 percent this year and the U.K. by 2.9 percent. The New York based investment bank sees Brazil expanding 3.5 percent, Russia 7 percent, India 8 percent and China 9.8 percent. Its projection for world GDP is 4.2 percent, down from 4.8 percent in 2006. 

[.... ]

The U.S. economy is slowing. Gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter compared with 5.6 percent in the first three months of 2006. 
 _


----------



## Atomic5 (19 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Probably not a particularly intelligent semi-rhetorical comment, but why raise rates in China when the US is slowing, if the US market is that important to Chinese prosperity?   

There's another Chinese rate rise on the cards for the Second Quarter!


----------



## mmmmining (20 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Probably not a particularly intelligent semi-rhetorical comment, but why raise rates in China when the US is slowing, if the US market is that important to Chinese prosperity?
> 
> There's another Chinese rate rise on the cards for the Second Quarter!




Uncle Sam still believe increasing interest rate in China will bankrupt Chinese shoemakers, so the Jack and Joe shops in USA will survive.

On the other hand, rising rate in China has a very little impact on Chinese economy because average Chinese put more than one-third of their income in saving account. Most people pay cash for everything, even house. It might have an positive impact on consumers for getting more interest from saving bank.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (20 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> US Slowdown = Reduced consumption of Chinese Exports = Reduced Chinese Demand for Commodities = Reduced Commodity Prices




Now there will be some slow down but it won't effect the Chinese that much, why? they have a local market of 1 billion people!

This is what my girl friend and couple of her friends have told me when i said that.


----------



## CanOz (20 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> It might have an positive impact on consumers for getting more interest from saving bank.




Unlikely, the rate for a savings account is 3% less than the prime lending rate. People here are pouring money into ETFs and stocks looking for a better return than the bank can give them.

Cheers,


----------



## theasxgorilla (20 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Given the US market's 1%+ gain overnight, are we expecting an UP day on the XAO today?


----------



## CanOz (20 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Given the US market's 1%+ gain overnight, are we expecting an UP day on the XAO today?




I say up, everything i've got on my depth screens is up in pre open.

Could be a big day.

Cheers,


----------



## ducati916 (20 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ASX.G baby,

It's a deceiving market, I've been short all day, and making money.
The US market although it's having big days, they are up and down, and the up just isn't that broad currently.

jog on
d998


----------



## Atomic5 (20 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like the Chinese rate rise has been interpreted as an extreme vote of confidence by the Chinese in the world economy. All of the EU and US were green today. The DOW was up 100points at one point.

Lets see if this week's US inflation data & Fed comments can keep the smiles on those US faces. I always get the feeling they are the only fakers at the party.


----------



## Gutterboy (20 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

G,day smart people,
I am just starting out,and would  like to learn how to interpret charts.
Where do i start?
Can someone point me in the right direction.
Help appreciated.Thanks

Sorry!wait up....stupid question, i just submitted this and saw th posts at the bottom of the page.
Im new.


----------



## Sean K (20 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Gutterboy said:
			
		

> G,day smart people,
> I am just starting out,and would  like to learn how to interpret charts.
> Where do i start?
> Can someone point me in the right direction.
> Help appreciated.Thanks



Try Chartschool, for a start. Good luck. 

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school


----------



## Gutterboy (20 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks mate


----------



## dodgers (20 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The US data's not out yet but what does everyone think...we must be close to the top of wave B now, I'm thinking down from here..


----------



## Sean K (20 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				dodgers said:
			
		

> The US data's not out yet but what does everyone think...we must be close to the top of wave B now, I'm thinking down from here..



hmmmmm...
breaking news:



> U.S. housing starts rose 9 pct in February  8:32 a.m.
> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The pace of U.S. home construction rose 9 percent in February, beating analysts' predictions and running against dismal news in the subprime home financing sector, a government report showed on Tuesday.


----------



## mmmmining (20 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I heard about people from Europe, Mexico, Central and South America are buying US houses for years. It is one way to have an American dream. Hopefully it is not a nightmare in a few years.


----------



## wahoo (21 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As well as the good news though:

Starts are down 28.5% compared with February 2006.
Building permits, which are not as affected by weather, fell 2.5% in February


Here's an interesting EW vid 'bout real estate and the correction - talks about it peaking in mid late 2005. Also parallels subprime peak the previous year

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PufPdUfhKA


----------



## Kimosabi (21 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wahoo said:
			
		

> As well as the good news though:
> 
> Starts are down 28.5% compared with February 2006.
> Building permits, which are not as affected by weather, fell 2.5% in February
> ...




Where can I get an Elliott Wave Analysis of Perth Housing Prices?


----------



## wahoo (21 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ummmm...... I can give u a swell report - 2.1m @ rotto


----------



## theasxgorilla (21 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesing that the US is up again over night...strong bar, open at low, close at high...and our market is up, but still struggling to push through 5900.  Early days yet.

Are we expectinig data or something today in Aust?


----------



## theasxgorilla (21 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO closing down around it's lows for the second day running...relatively strong resistance at 5900...additional resistance being provided by the 2x1.


----------



## CanOz (21 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks Gorilla, finally something interesting to look at!

Cheers,


----------



## Atomic5 (21 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wahoo said:
			
		

> Ummmm...... I can give u a swell report - 2.1m @ rotto




They have houses on Rottnest now?, not just those indestructable looking concrete bunker things that you could rent?

As for data. I know that the US Fed will give it's views on inflation and rates.
No-one expects the Fed to lower rates though.


----------



## nomore4s (22 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

G'day All,

I realise this could be a bit simplistic but could an ascending triangle be forming?
I don't have the skills of the more seasoned T/A people, but found this interesting so I thought I would post it anyway.


----------



## Atomic5 (22 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

US & EU markets were flat this morning ahead ofthe Fed. However the US Fed just made his announcement (he is truly a god)- 'to keep rates steady' wihc was expected, but the surprise was that he did not express his usual bias to tighten. Markets reacted positively - all green to go.


----------



## Kauri (22 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The last two times in this current dip that we had  wide ranging days (in red boxes) the following day the market couldn't hold them and completely reversed, forming important swing points... will it happen again today-tomorrow?? A short of the ASX200 from todays highs may be interesting...


----------



## >Apocalypto< (22 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				nomore4s said:
			
		

> G'day All,
> 
> I realise this could be a bit simplistic but could an ascending triangle be forming?
> I don't have the skills of the more seasoned T/A people, but found this interesting so I thought I would post it anyway.




It was on the daily and it broke it today great another saw it too!!


----------



## >Apocalypto< (22 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> The last two times in this current dip that we had  wide ranging days (in red boxes) the following day the market couldn't hold them and completely reversed, forming important swing points... will it happen again today-tomorrow?? A short of the ASX200 from todays highs may be interesting...




Did you go Short?? options or CFD's?

If you did when did you place it cuz i see high was on the close.


----------



## Atomic5 (23 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> The last two times in this current dip that we had  wide ranging days (in red boxes) the following day the market couldn't hold them and completely reversed, forming important swing points... will it happen again today-tomorrow?? A short of the ASX200 from todays highs may be interesting...




Looks like it's might be choppy from here on until the real end.


----------



## theasxgorilla (23 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Resistance at the 1x1.  In Gann, price action on the high side of the 1x1 as drawn from the previous major peak (in my application of this tool) starts to suggest that we should be looking long for our next trade(s)...but as it stands it's providing resistance...it might turn price around here and co-incide with the conclusion of the Elliott Wave corrective of the corrective count.

Time will tell, it always does.


----------



## Kauri (23 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Trade_It said:
			
		

> Did you go Short?? options or CFD's?
> 
> If you did when did you place it cuz i see high was on the close.




Trade It
   No,what I posted was only an observation, for me there was and still is nowhere enough meat on the bone to warrant a trade either way. Still waiting for it to decide which direction it is going to take. Where did you take your longs, and why?
         Cheers
                  Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto< (23 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Trade It
> No,what I posted was only an observation, for me there was and still is nowhere enough meat on the bone to warrant a trade either way. Still waiting for it to decide which direction it is going to take. Where did you take your longs, and why?
> Cheers
> Kauri




Hi Kauri,

Went long just after  second sell off 4 days ago cuz it confirmed  short term upward support line broke my resistance line, and had volume day after sell off, obv was directed up.

Enough for me!

On the 19th were i entered it is a long way back to 5750 XJO i have tight stops and no probs with a re enter.

Plus the continuation pattern i saw was confirmed yesterday so
I am am still holding 5900 in my support. (yet to be seen though!)

I was worried you went short yesterday was not sure how that would turn out.

God it is quiet today!! calm before a storm or just a buyer break!!


----------



## >Apocalypto< (28 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well things looking red today US fell slightly off the horse.

Not going to be a bear yet, but i have dropped anything that is leveraged over the XJO.

But my share CFD's are not looking two bad in pre open.

Thoughts Guys back to shaky ground?


----------



## mmmmining (28 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oil is high
Gold is high
Israel issued travel warning
Iran took British soldiers
US moving more aircraft carriers
Bush is in trouble both in senate and in house... 

Looks like something is going to happen. The question is when?


----------



## Sean K (28 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mmmmining said:


> Oil is high
> Gold is high
> Israel issued travel warning
> Iran took British soldiers
> ...



Teetering on the edge. See Middle East disaster thread for article on US build up on Iranian border. Probably nothing, but  , Iran is much more capable than Iraq was.....

But, aren't wars good for the economy?


----------



## Atomic5 (28 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The ASX barely blipped Tuesday and today Wednesday only 40 points down.   Im impressed.

The US Fed Chairman is set to make an economy statement today. He will ramp it, my guess.


----------



## Kimosabi (28 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mmmmining said:


> Oil is high
> Gold is high
> Israel issued travel warning
> Iran took British soldiers
> ...





There is some speculation circulating around the traps that the US or Israel is going to have a swipe at Iran in April...


----------



## sam76 (29 March 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just a question from a guy who's having a stab at T/A

does today's XAO chart show a cup and handle formation??


----------



## Rogue Trading (3 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Go figure. Yanks up 9 points on the dow and the SPI goes up 30+ points.
Aussie plunge protection team doing a good job. Will be interesting if we get a interest rate rise.

Rogue Trading


----------



## Pat (4 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So the XAO hits an all time high of 6079 and no posts.

Some say where in 3 wave correction, yet the all ords seem to be rocketing.

Any thoughts on whats happening?


----------



## wayneL (4 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pat said:


> So the XAO hits an all time high of 6079 and no posts.
> 
> Some say where in 3 wave correction, yet the all ords seem to be rocketing.
> 
> Any thoughts on whats happening?



euphoria


----------



## Uncle Festivus (4 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pat said:


> So the XAO hits an all time high of 6079 and no posts.
> 
> Some say where in 3 wave correction, yet the all ords seem to be rocketing.
> 
> Any thoughts on whats happening?




Too much money, too few assets to buy?


----------



## professor_frink (4 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pat said:


> So the XAO hits an all time high of 6079 and no posts.
> 
> Some say where in 3 wave correction, yet the all ords seem to be rocketing.
> 
> Any thoughts on whats happening?




Thinking of going short


----------



## Pat (4 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> euphoria






Uncle Festivus said:


> Too much money, too few assets to buy?




I'm not too sure what your refering to. I guess I need you guy's to elaborate?


----------



## Sean K (4 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm beat. I'm still waiting for 5450.  

This has lost me. Perhaps the world is so awash with money, that the other fundamentals are getting pushed aside for the moment.


----------



## wayneL (4 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> This has lost me. Perhaps the world is so awash with money, that the other fundamentals are getting pushed aside for the moment.



That answers Pats question


----------



## vishalt (4 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just follow the leader and short when another correction happens guys, no use fighting trends here lol.. before you blink RIO could be $120 and BHP $45.


----------



## Pat (4 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'm beat. I'm still waiting for 5450.
> 
> This has lost me. Perhaps the world is so awash with money, that the other fundamentals are getting pushed aside for the moment.




Nice Answer.

And the repercussions of "pushed aside fundamentals"?
Don't think the answer will be good.


----------



## Pat (4 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Thinking of going short




LOL.

I wasn't expecting it to break 6000 so soon.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (4 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pat said:


> LOL.
> 
> I wasn't expecting it to break 6000 so soon.




I would be wary about shorting xao at present. Below is a semi log chart of xao since 1982, about the time I first bought in to the market. I found second guessing the xao to be an expensive exercise. This chart includes a Gann fan. It shows nothing extraordinary (excuse the pun) about the xao's rise recently. 

Without a classic distribution with lower highs and lower lows, it would be unwise to short the market at present. That is not to say that one might "fluke" a correction, but so far no one has convinced me that this market is correcting. 

Garpal


----------



## Kimosabi (4 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would be wary about shorting xao at present. Below is a semi log chart of xao since 1982, about the time I first bought in to the market. I found second guessing the xao to be an expensive exercise. This chart includes a Gann fan. It shows nothing extraordinary (excuse the pun) about the xao's rise recently.
> 
> Without a classic distribution with lower highs and lower lows, it would be unwise to short the market at present. That is not to say that one might "fluke" a correction, but so far no one has convinced me that this market is correcting.
> 
> Garpal




I think your looking in the wrong spot, I think XAO is fundamentally ok, the problems aren't in Australia but in the US.  If/when the US takes a dive, we'll go for a dive in sympathy...


----------



## wintermute (5 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'm beat. I'm still waiting for 5450.
> 
> This has lost me. Perhaps the world is so awash with money, that the other fundamentals are getting pushed aside for the moment.




Hi Kennas I can't remember whether I mentioned this here before, I know I have elsewhere, but my original thoughts on this corection were that there wouldn't be one, or that it would be a small one, and then we would see a parabolic rise in the All Ords, followed by a significant crash late this year or early next. I'm talking 1987 like... I've been watching (not lately) the RSI on the XAO and making comparisons (on a log scale) to what happened in 1987, will have to re-visit now that the all ords has returned to over 6000 and see how it looks... The fact it is 20 years since the 87 crash may (or may not) be significant too. 

My basic feeling was that we would have a woosy correction and everyone would sigh a sigh of relief believing that it was the correction we had to have, and then the market would go on to new and dizzying heights, just when everyone was thinking "It's different this time" using whatever the latest reason is, it will come crashing down fueled by the amount of leveraged money in the market. 

Part of the reason I didn't sell more before this correction was because I thought I'd miss out on the parabolic rise... the tricky part is timing the exit... RSI somewhere around 87 I think would see me out...

BTW I'm back in full time employment now, so my time for research has evaporated somewhat  

Tony.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wintermute said:


> .... just when everyone was thinking "It's different this time" using whatever the latest reason is, it will come crashing down fueled by the amount of leveraged money in the market.




I think this sums it up nicely. Just when everyone thinks they are back in their comfort zone and economists/analysts are patting themsevles on their collective backs, the real correction will come out of the blue. The dynamics have changed I think with the last correction a month ago so that (I hope?) investors/traders are not so blindingly bullish, but are aware of the changing world economy fundamentals, especially in the US. In the meantime, go along with the game but sit next to the exit door just in case.


----------



## IFocus (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I belong to the EW group thinking this was a major ABC correction, clearly this is very unlikely now and a retest of the old high and the market will likely head higher.

Wintermute’s  comments about comparing 87 to now is interesting, the thing that I keep wondering about is that company earning’s and valuations are not as distorted now as 87 (saw a chart somewhere) and Comsec keeps saying the current PE is below the mean average (fundamentals is not my strength). 

Maybe for a serious correction there will need to be a major event for example involving China such as China invading Taiwan rather than a correction based on market dynamics.  

Focus


----------



## Kimosabi (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Maybe for a serious correction there will need to be a major event for example involving China such as China invading Taiwan rather than a correction based on market dynamics.
> 
> Focus




The correction will be triggered by the US...


----------



## wintermute (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OK I fired up incredible charts and here is what I saw  




I'm postulating that we are at the point now where the cross-hair is in 1987. there was a little pullback there before the stratospheric rise... note that the RSI has now gone past the point where it corrected the last three times, but everyone things we've had our correction!!

Tony.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wintermute said:


> OK I fired up incredible charts and here is what I saw  Tony.




And it is a chart ...yes?


----------



## wintermute (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hehehe you probably viewed whilst I was editing.... I changed the chart and added a few more words  

Tony.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wintermute said:


> hehehe you probably viewed whilst I was editing.... I changed the chart and added a few more words
> 
> Tony.





I hope you get what you see. I don`t think it is such a big deal because you only lose mo in the rush out. The markets always go up over time but nonetheless a healthy dose of pessimism is good to stay grounded. Thankyou to all pessos. Someone will pick it eventually.


----------



## wintermute (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ahhh ok, I missed the sarcasm  thought the chart was missing.... 

I've posted a similar chart before this correction, and thought it would go one of two ways, either a decent correction and then onward (with RSI dropping back to a more normal level), or a woosy one and the RSI keep on rising, well guess what, the RSI has not come back under 80... If it goes on up to 87 and follows a similar pattern to 1987 (any numerologists out there  ) and we see the parabolic rise in the index as well, then I think we will be looking at a crash rather than a correction next time. If you see RSI heading for 90 be on your guard!! If you hear analysts and every man and his dog saying it is different this time be doubly on your guard... by all means make the most of the rises but there is one thing about the markets, patterns repeat.  No matter how many times people say it is different this time, reality wins out in the end  

Have a look at the monthly chart over the last 5 years and look at what has generally happened when RSI edged over 80... It's not all smoke and mirrors 

I'm not being pessimistic, just making observations, if those observations tell me to beware then I will act.  Right now they are just observations  

Tony.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wintermute said:


> ahhh ok, I missed the sarcasm  thought the chart was missing....
> 
> I've posted a similar chart before this correction, and thought it would go one of two ways, either a decent correction and then onward (with RSI dropping back to a more normal level), or a woosy one and the RSI keep on rising, well guess what, the RSI has not come back under 80... If it goes on up to 87 and follows a similar pattern to 1987 (any numerologists out there  ) and we see the parabolic rise in the index as well, then I think we will be looking at a crash rather than a correction next time. If you see RSI heading for 90 be on your guard!! If you hear analysts and every man and his dog saying it is different this time be doubly on your guard... by all means make the most of the rises but there is one thing about the markets, patterns repeat.  No matter how many times people say it is different this time, reality wins out in the end
> 
> ...




You want sarcasm.....I thought RSI was Repetitive Strain Injury.Thankyou for your "observations".I think they are pessimistic.


----------



## timelord (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You don't think China adds a new variable to the cycle?  We do seem to be resource driven.


----------



## Sean K (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



timelord said:


> You don't think China adds a new variable to the cycle?  We do seem to be resource driven.



China needs the US to keep buying their trinkets to keep growing at 10% + a year. The paradigm will shift in the next 5-10 ish years, when the Chinese middle class replace the US consumer as their no 1 customer. In the mean time the US-China-Australia relationship may produce a down turn but long term the future is very bright for our resource driven economy IMO.


----------



## wintermute (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

yeah China does, but the thing I personally think is "going wrong" is unsustainable gains (capital gains that is) in certain areas, at the moment I think it is restricted to spec mining stocks, and starting to be biotech and IT, but these only make up a small percentage of the market overall. I think people will start to think that gains of 40% in a week are normal and to be expected. if the marketin general goes into a buying frenzy then we can see a massive rise in a short period of time, usually followed by a crash. 

If the market continues on at it's current rate then I can't see this scenario happening, but if it takes off and goes nuts then that is a different story. As there is no evidence yet of it going completely crazy this is all just speculation based on a pattern on a chart, however if that pattern starts to repeat (especially the huge gains in a very short period) then one needs to stop and pay attention or risk being caught unaware. 

One thing that may fuel this sudden rise is the amount of capital that will be looking for a new home as a result of private equity buyouts.  If share prices are pushed up because of extra demand, and then that demand dries up (and so do the gains, and dividend yields are now low compared to the elevated  sp's) then there is only one likely outcome, people cash up and look for greener pastures elsewhere... when that starts to happen the leveraged players HAVE to get out (as the sp drops due to lots of sellers and no buyers), all of a sudden you have a domino effect.  I'm not trying to predict when it will happen (or even if) but it's happened before and it will no doubt happen again... keep an eye on the chart and specifically the RSI, and you might be able to work it to your advantage  

A crash is only a bad thing if you get caught by surprise! 

Tony.


----------



## chops_a_must (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wintermute said:


> I'm not trying to predict when it will happen (or even if) but it's happened before and it will no doubt happen again... keep an eye on the chart and specifically the RSI, and you might be able to work it to your advantage
> 
> A crash is only a bad thing if you get caught by surprise!
> 
> Tony.



The RSI is not a reliable indicator IMO. You have used it to try and predict movements of stocks in my time here that have turned out to be very very wrong.

The RSI is a relative indicator (as the name suggests) and it is not that much higher than the recent peaks. To me, it looks to be breaking out, so the RSI is likely to go a lot higher IMO than what you are suggesting.

Far from the bulls saying it is "different this time", the bears seem to be the one in this category. Crashes don't have a habit of happening in election years. Nothing fundamentally has changed. Commodities are starting another run, companies aren't overly in debt, PE ratios are nowhere near historic levels for crashes. The only sector that appears overpriced is the financial sector, and perhaps U stocks. The financial sector is the one likely to bring everything down, but we wont know the full impact of events for a year or more.

I doubt the chances of a crash in October are very high. People will be so conscious of it happening, that it wont. Instead, I'm guessing that it will be next year (after elections) and after the full impact of the financial disasters will start to have a real impact.


----------



## wintermute (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Chops, which stocks?? The only time I use RSI is to try and predict a pullback.. the only time I recall doing this here was on MCR which did pull back.... it didn't pull back as far as I would have liked it to but that was because I was hoping for a gap to be filled, which had nothing to do with whether the pull back occurred when RSI was showing overbought..... 

Have a look at the RSI for the last four  corrections and if you still think it is unreliable then fair enough... it won't tell you down to the day, but will give a fair indication a few weeks in advance IMO... 87 was an anomaly, and from what I can see another anomaly may be starting to form.....  Note that RSI is only reliable if there is a correlation with past events for a particular stock or index.. in this case I think there is. 

Tony.


----------



## constable (6 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As with most indicators they can be taken out of context and are evidence after the fact. Furthermore, relevant only to certain trading time frames!
Which trading time frame is a more relevant question?? Depends how you trade and what your entry/exits point require I suppose.


----------



## Sean K (10 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'd be interested to see how EW ers have adjusted their count since we didn't get an ABC corrective move? Are we into wave 5 now? Cheers.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (11 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some great points made on this page.

On the monthly chart of this trend, there is no real correction yet.

A retracement of 33-38% is roughly 1500 points and a healthy pull back.

So I hope it happens. 

Agree that RSI can move into overbought territory and stay there quite a while before it moves back.


----------



## GreatPig (11 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Back in the danger zone for another pullback?

It hasn't managed to stay above the yellow line for long so far.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## tech/a (11 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'd be interested to see how EW ers have adjusted their count since we didn't get an ABC corrective move? Are we into wave 5 now? Cheers.





Here is Advanced Gets Count with wave 5 still open (dynamic).
The internal wave count isnt correct (This happens as the software works on algorithms) its not a problem once you know.

The second chart is my own dynamic wave count as of april 4th my view is that this is still a wave 3 in the internal structure building the final 5 wave up move.


----------



## x2rider (11 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi folks 
For what my opinion is worth, I agree with tech. I still have some distance between the closing today and my 21 day bollinger bands. 
The entry for me was on the break about the previous high and I have increased my position every 20 points. I am not sure on the 6400 range but would certainly see me with a tight stop at anything over 6300.

Cheers martin


----------



## wavepicker (11 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Here is Advanced Gets Count with wave 5 still open (dynamic).
> The internal wave count isnt correct (This happens as the software works on algorithms) its not a problem once you know.
> 
> The second chart is my own dynamic wave count as of april 4th my view is that this is still a wave 3 in the internal structure building the final 5 wave up move.




Tech,

Not sure how you/AGET have numbered your weekly chart. But the way my version of AGET numbers the weekly chart, the swings are grossly out of proportion and it lacks the "right look". Numbering the weekly chart in the  context of a typical EW structure, will show that this index cannot rally past 6361, otherwise it would mean an invalidation and thus a more bullish scenario is playing out.

Although AGET  was proven to be correct in this instance with it's rather primitive wave count, this is quite often NOT the case, and the wavecounts it generates are simply not good enough to trade from consistantly. Just my thoughts after a number of years of experimentation. Also these wave counts  are too simplified. This is for a reason, because it was designed to be used  in conjunction with other tools withing AGET for a semi mechanical trading system. ie Type 1 abd 2 trades alongside with trend channels, PTI, and displaced moving averages.

I have the May correction last year as "sideways" wave 4. These usually precede the last actionary wave in a sequence. My own wave count and cycles work picked the last correction (Late feb) to within 1-2 days before it actually happened. Unfortunately got the timing of the current rally wrong. Nevertheless the warning short has been fired accross the bow already with the last correction.
The picture in the DJIA is much clearer at present(a clear impulse down and abc countertrend up) and that is what I am using as a benchmark at present. Not to mention the CRB Index  in the US which has clearly impulsed down and is now finishing wave C of it's abc countertrend.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (12 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Waves.
I cant agree more re your comments on GET.
As you know these are daily charts. You could well be right.
Your experience with Elliot is well beyond mine.


----------



## mmmmining (13 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My God, It's Friday, the 13th!


----------



## Sean K (20 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I've just been comparing the current situation with the previous positions of the XAO just prior to a correction, and it looks to me like it could be soon. Notice similarites in MACD, Stoch and RSI before the worst corrections and the smaller ones. Looks like a smaller one is due now. If the market keeps flying then it will turn into a larger one IMO. Not a call to bears, just an observation.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (20 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I've just been comparing the current situation with the previous positions of the XAO just prior to a correction, and it looks to me like it could be soon. Notice similarites in MACD, Stoch and RSI before the worst corrections and the smaller ones. Looks like a smaller one is due now. If the market keeps flying then it will turn into a larger one IMO. Not a call to bears, just an observation.




Kennas,

Been waiting for you to return to this topic with your analysis. Much enjoyed.

I agree with you I am sitting out of the xjo at the moment as I am leaning towards a fall coming soon as well.


----------



## nizar (20 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kennas.
Notice how it was only 2 months ago when we had the last correction (not even). Other corrections are more widely spaced ie. several months.

DOW up by 140pts at the minute


----------



## Moneybags (21 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm no expert on charts or analysis of any sort really.........but I do think the last correction was a little light on (not that I'm complaining). 

One thing I have noticed though is my WBC (Westpac) shares have jumped a dollar in 6 trading days.........now this is telling me that people are jumping back into banks. 

Am I imagining things.......maybe........but I think there is a real sense of nervousness out there.

MB


----------



## Sean K (21 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Kennas.
> Notice how it was only 2 months ago when we had the last correction (not even). Other corrections are more widely spaced ie. several months.
> 
> DOW up by 140pts at the minute



Yep, DOW having a great run and at all time high I think. I agree with the spacing point, however I don't think the last correction was deep enough and therefore the next one could possibly come on a little sooner. Perhaps I'm being overly cautious? Paranoid even?  

If you're a long term investor, then you'd either have the 'I don't care about short term movements' attitude, or perhaps 'bring it on, it will be a great buying opportunity'.....


----------



## reece55 (21 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yep, DOW having a great run and at all time high I think. I agree with the spacing point, however I don't think the last correction was deep enough and therefore the next one could possibly come on a little sooner. Perhaps I'm being overly cautious? Paranoid even?
> 
> If you're a long term investor, then you'd either have the 'I don't care about short term movements' attitude, or perhaps 'bring it on, it will be a great buying opportunity'.....




Kennas
I don't think you are being paranoid here.....

The ASX S&P 200 on Wednesday reached the furthest % gap it has been from it's 200 SMA since inception. As of Friday, it is 14.03% off the 200 day moving average.... It's now at twice the standard deviation from the average. If the Dow is anything to go by (and obviously they are not direct related however it is interesting to note), in 10 years the Dow from peak to trough in each wave has only gone above 15% twice, both times only lasted less than 1.5 months and every single time at the peak they lost < 15% every time.

Add to that we are only 7 trading days off May.....

I'm not saying we will crash, but the parabolic trend of late is a little concerning. 

In saying that, if people want to squeeze out a little more, go ahead. But statistically, it doesn't bode well.......

Cheers


----------



## CanOz (21 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



reece55 said:


> Kennas
> I don't think you are being paranoid here.....
> 
> The ASX S&P 200 on Wednesday reached the furthest % gap it has been from it's 200 SMA since inception. As of Friday, it is 14.03% off the 200 day moving average.... It's now at twice the standard deviation from the average. If the Dow is anything to go by (and obviously they are not direct related however it is interesting to note), in 10 years the Dow from peak to trough in each wave has only gone above 15% twice, both times only lasted less than 1.5 months and every single time at the peak they lost < 15% every time.
> ...




Hmmm, slightly off topic question Reese, but i'm just curous...Do you use both FA and TA, i see you some reference to both in your posts?

I'm still waiting for a selling climax to be noted in the volume of the indices....i haven't seen it happen yet, but every decent correction is preceded by a large increase in volume and little upside gained, usually a few days before the buyers disappear altogether.

Any thoughts on this?


----------



## wintermute (21 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

At the risk of wearing out my welcome, I'm going to post my 1987 comparison chart once more, as I think the resemblance is getting stronger... I've been saying for a while I thought we would see a short sharp correction followed by a period of euphoric buying then a crash... below is the chart that makes me think that this is a possibility.




Nothing is ever exact, but I think when we start to think about 20 year cycles, and look at the similarities (and there are some noticable differences too) then it isn't outside the realms of possibility.

Something that Alan Koher said on the finance section of ABC news a month or so ago, to me seems like the catalyst for the euphoric buying (he recently mentioned this again in Eureka report, though this time he called it panic buying).  That catalyst was the huge amount of money that will become available for investment when ordinary holders have their shares bought out in private equity deals, ie coles and qantas... He bandies about figures of $50 billion looking for a new home!! that sort of buying demand is sure to send prices up, but the demand will eventually run out, and shares will be at much higher P/E levels... this (combined with leveraged money) will I think be what triggers the crash, with panic setting in and prices dropping far below what is reasonable as an over-reaction.  However I don't see this crash happening in the short term... if this does happen we will need to see the XAO go to I'd say well over 7000 before the end of the year... 

Alan Kohers advice (from memory) was to ride it up and sell into the stupidity!
 

Tony.


----------



## reece55 (21 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Hmmm, slightly off topic question Reese, but i'm just curous...Do you use both FA and TA, i see you some reference to both in your posts?
> 
> I'm still waiting for a selling climax to be noted in the volume of the indices....i haven't seen it happen yet, but every decent correction is preceded by a large increase in volume and little upside gained, usually a few days before the buyers disappear altogether.
> 
> Any thoughts on this?




Hey can aussieuck, I use T/A to trade markets - F/A has a distinct time lag and being a young and impatient person, it just doesn't suit me to trade on this basis. If you were a patient, long term investor, it could work for you. Plus, I am an accountant by trade, so I have severe bias because I can see the loopholes Companies use when preparing reports. In saying that however, I love analysis of Companies from a F/A point of view, because its study is extremely interesting. So, it's always fun to comment on F/A IMO and I try to add value to the F/A investors where I can.....

I do agree with you in regards to the selling climax - we are not quite there yet. We haven't seen those tight ranges with heavy volume yet. But I think that statistical evidence suggests we are very close to this waves top. So, from my point of view, if you were trading the SPI or index or were highly leveraged, I would want tight stops and wouldn't be holding positions overnight on index positions. Sure, you are going to give some money away on the spread, but from my perspective, risk/reward says be careful at the moment. Be happy for anyone to challenge me on this however!

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (21 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wintermute said:


> At the risk of wearing out my welcome.........
> 
> Alan Kohers advice (from memory) was to ride it up and sell into the stupidity!
> 
> ...



Hi Tony. That RSI is looking untidy isn't it. I hope a correction comes sooner rather than later to keep the market healthy for just a bit longer. Until I master shorts!


----------



## reece55 (21 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wintermute said:


> At the risk of wearing out my welcome, I'm going to post my 1987 comparison chart once more, as I think the resemblance is getting stronger... I've been saying for a while I thought we would see a short sharp correction followed by a period of euphoric buying then a crash... below is the chart that makes me think that this is a possibility.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Tony
Whilst I believe the market is overbought, the comparison to the 87 crash statistically isn't there......

I wish I had it with me, but Tricom have actually transposed the lead up to the 87 crash over todays market. If this were the case, we would have a rise to about 12 K until April 08 and a fall of 6000 points in a couple of months after that.....

It really gives you an idea of how hot those 80's were..... I will post it on Monday to give you look, because it is very interesting.....

Cheers


----------



## wintermute (21 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks Reece, I was looking at how much it rose (basically doubled in two years!!) so it would have to be pretty damn spectacular to match that, but we might have a mini version, if it doesn't correct again soon?? 

Tony.


----------



## chops_a_must (21 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wintermute said:


> At the risk of wearing out my welcome, I'm going to post my 1987 comparison chart once more, as I think the resemblance is getting stronger... I've been saying for a while I thought we would see a short sharp correction followed by a period of euphoric buying then a crash... below is the chart that makes me think that this is a possibility.




Read the data thread as to why this comparison is pointless and useless.


----------



## Sean K (24 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bit of resistance developed there at 6200 ish. MACD starting to fall over (Ooo), bearish Stochastics going through 50 (untidy), RSI not extended on the 6 month chart, and is now under 80 on the 3 year weekly (OK). DMI/ADX still strong, not on this chart (Good). Slightly conflicting signals....


----------



## chops_a_must (24 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like an ascending triangle forming to me Kennas...


----------



## UPKA (24 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

dunno if this is the right place to post, but does anyone know what caused the suddent spike in share prices between 11-12 oclock today?


----------



## bvbfan (24 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Release of mild CPI data putting the case for further rate rises on hold temporarily


----------



## x2rider (25 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hi chops
I would have to agree . That is a nice looking chart . If it was a share you would certianly have it in your watch list .
 I have tried to trade it intraday for the last few days and haven't had much luck but my longer term hold is going well . 
 I would be looking to take another position when the numbers go above 6250. The index had to have a rest of some sorts and looks like it is .

O well nice to see and we'll all be keeping a close eye for he breakout

 Cheers Martin


----------



## UraniumLover (25 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

An interesting article .. 

The ASX is getting over bought short term and the most likely course for the next few weeks to a couple of months is – correction mode.  Traders may be lucky and get a chance to sell into this market this week and wait for buying opportunities over the coming weeks, some will be even luckier and pick some of the winners that are set to go against the tide.  A look at the Resources Bourse for my offshore friends…

The ASX has now risen sharply by about 10% and you will note the short term peaks above – in November, start of January, end February and now potentially… where this market has gotten overheated and needed a pause.  This combined with seasonal factors seems to suggest traders should tread warily and investors should apply caution right about now.  We do not see a long protracted decline, Down Under we are in a long term resources boom and the ASX is overweight resource stocks compared to other international indices.

Further to this comment - there are some stocks, particularly in gold and base metals that are poised for a run, even right now.  Uranium stocks in my PDF product have very attractive charts, the stuff of dreams and investors have been cleaning up and many of these stocks now need a pause.  We are about to find out what the potential new Labor Government intends to do with their Uranium Mining Policy so all breaths are now held in check awaiting the outcome next weekend.  I daren’t guess at the outcome as advice or even opinion – however I can say noises from the moderates indicate that common sense must prevail.  I’ll just wait and see, including the reaction of many of the overheated uranium stocks.  The market is expecting a pro-uranium mining result.  There may be some “live cat” bounces on any meaningful pull backs in the near term.


----------



## Sean K (26 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> 1219 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 price action unhealthy, market could fall 200 to 350 points on any bad news, say Goldman Sachs JBWere traders. They note recent inability to hold gains, particularly after "sensational" CPI number, which, they say, puts RBA rate hikes off the agenda for a while. Note market unsure about AUD strength, with many companies cum downgrades as a result. "Once it turns nasty, these will be the first ones to be singled out for some special treatment," they say. Index up 0.4% at 6212.2. (DWR)




200 points would take it to the 6000 support line mark so my pluck is about there.


----------



## nizar (26 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kennas,
If it breaks 6000-6050, then maybe we will revisit February lows as the next support?


----------



## Sean K (26 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Kennas,
> If it breaks 6000-6050, then maybe we will revisit February lows as the next support?



Possibly. 550's a big drop, and 8% is a decent correction. I'm not sure if our market conditions are set for that. There's not too much froth in the ASX appreciation and the overall pe doesn't seem too high. It's about the long term ave I think? Do you know where it's sitting?? Should be some support at 5900 too you'd think so that could be the 2-300 correction mark. 300 is a 5% drop which would be a meaningful pause.


----------



## chops_a_must (26 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Possibly. 550's a big drop, and 8% is a decent correction. I'm not sure if our market conditions are set for that. There's not too much froth in the ASX appreciation and the overall pe doesn't seem too high. It's about the long term ave I think? Do you know where it's sitting?? Should be some support at 5900 too you'd think so that could be the 2-300 correction mark. 300 is a 5% drop which would be a meaningful pause.




About 5450 on the 200d MA, and about 5960 on the 50d MA.

I still favour one more breakout before we see a dive. Bar a negative international event, there is absolutely no reason for a sell off. A lot of negative overhangs have all but been lifted.

The XAO is very near the close MA, and if you want to use the RSI, there is still room to move both on the weekly and daily. So, it still has room to run in the short term IMO, and that is the event that I favour.


----------



## hacheln_mice (26 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi all, first post here.

I did a bit of quick number crunching on XAO, and plotted the % difference between the 50SMA against the 200SMA.  Make of it what you will.

As you can tell, the Feb correction is not noticeable on the curve.  All it did was flatten the ascent.

Cheers.


----------



## Kimosabi (26 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



hacheln_mice said:


> Hi all, first post here.
> 
> I did a bit of quick number crunching on XAO, and plotted the % difference between the 50SMA against the 200SMA. Make of it what you will.
> 
> ...




Is this 2006 or 2007, dates on the chart are 2006.


----------



## hacheln_mice (26 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's another comparing the 5SMA v 200SMA.  As you can see, the positive discrepancy is the largest its been since 98/99.

Note also how the XAO has slowed its advance in recent days, while the US went vertical.  This reminds me of April of last year when XAO slowed and US woke up from its March slumber.

I'm not making any calls though, just presenting the facts.


----------



## hacheln_mice (26 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whoops, how embarrassing. 

First chart was labeled wrong.  Here's the corrected version, pardon the mess.


----------



## Kauri (27 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

May be way off line but below is the way I am trading the XJO currently via E/W.


----------



## Out Too Soon (27 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I noticed the Chinese mkt has risen 45% since last time it triggered a world-wide correction, what's the odds the tail will wag the dog again when next the Chinese mkt bubble pops causing expected May correction everywhere else.

i.e don't bother analysing the ASX, Dow or Nasdaq, just tell me when China's gonna go POP!


----------



## WaySolid (27 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Read the data thread as to why this comparison is pointless and useless.



I'd like to see something useful in this thread to compare it against.

It's interesting to see just how far we still are from the 80's euphoria yet.


----------



## nizar (27 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



WaySolid said:


> It's interesting to see just how far we still are from the 80's euphoria yet.




Exactly.


----------



## wintermute (27 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks Waysolid  nice to see a relative graph!  

My interpretation has been mostly focused on RSI (which seems to polarise people) not on magnitudes of the actual index, but it is reasuring to see that the magnitudes are no where near the same, so if we were to get a "crash" it would be a small one in comparison to 87.  I'm just looking at a similar pattern as I perceive it  

Tony.


----------



## nomore4s (29 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Was looking at the XAO on a weekly chart (over 5 years) using a logarithmic axis. It looks to be in a fairly tight up trending channel, but what got my attention was that every time it looked to push through or did break the top line it pulled back into the channel and toward (generally came down to meet) the 30 week MA. Maybe we could be due for a pullback toward the MA?


----------



## Sean K (29 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Was looking at the XAO on a weekly chart (over 5 years) using a logarithmic axis. It looks to be in a fairly tight up trending channel, but what got my attention was that every time it looked to push through or did break the top line it pulled back into the channel and toward (generally came down to meet) the 30 week MA. Maybe we could be due for a pullback toward the MA?



Thanks Nomore, what level on the XAO does the 30 d ma equate to on your chart atm?


----------



## nomore4s (29 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Thanks Nomore, what level on the XAO does the 30 d ma equate to on your chart atm?




Around 5830


----------



## Out Too Soon (30 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Good graph Waysolid, maybe we should compare it to China at present.


----------



## WaySolid (30 April 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Shenzhen composite index.

Impressive returns.


----------



## Sean K (1 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some nice healthy consolidation occurring at the moment, especially amongst the overbought uranium speccies. The XAO is even looking like it's about to get into oversold territory on the stochastics. Notice the past few times the stochs have gone below the 'oversold' line at 20. Found a bottom each time. Maybe we're about to get there again. All three indicators here are still heading down though. Pretty short term bearish really.


----------



## GreatPig (1 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Notice also the strong RSI divergence between this peak and the previous one.

GP


----------



## nizar (1 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Some nice healthy consolidation occurring at the moment, especially amongst the overbought uranium speccies. The XAO is even looking like it's about to get into oversold territory on the stochastics. Notice the past few times the stochs have gone below the 'oversold' line at 20. Found a bottom each time. Maybe we're about to get there again. All three indicators here are still heading down though. Pretty short term bearish really.




True, i agree with GP as well.
Should be back up and roaring by next week. Maybe.


----------



## OscarC (1 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> True, i agree with GP as well.
> Should be back up and roaring by next week. Maybe.




I agree. General cycles point to a run up to August-September. I believe we will have a great run-up till then

Cheers

Oscar


----------



## chops_a_must (3 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Looks like an ascending triangle forming to me Kennas...






kennas said:


> Some nice healthy consolidation occurring at the moment, especially amongst the overbought uranium speccies. The XAO is even looking like it's about to get into oversold territory on the stochastics. Notice the past few times the stochs have gone below the 'oversold' line at 20. Found a bottom each time. Maybe we're about to get there again. All three indicators here are still heading down though. Pretty short term bearish really.



I'm not sure how you are meant to read the indicators for indexes, or how you read indicators personally, but I always take it as an incredibly bullish sign if the indicators are all reading bearish whilst the price is staying flat (on stocks at least). In fact, I look for these set ups. Maybe the XAO goes in the potential breakout thread... or the outstanding breakout thread tomorrow?

Anyway, I hope you are able to make some good money in this little run Kennas.   And after that, we'll have a clearer picture of where everything is going.

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## Edwood (3 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> I always take it as an incredibly bullish sign if the indicators are all reading bearish whilst the price is staying flat (on stocks at least). In fact, I look for these set ups. Maybe the XAO goes in the potential breakout thread... or the outstanding breakout thread tomorrow?
> Cheers,
> Chops.




that consolidation looked very much like a wave 4 imo Chops so if I were long I'd probably be looking to use the jump to lighten up a bit as I think we're close to a turn - all imho - we could see another couple of hundred on XAO / ASX but I reckon it'll be cooked by then
Ed


----------



## Sean K (3 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Anyway, I hope you are able to make some good money in this little run Kennas.   And after that, we'll have a clearer picture of where everything is going.
> Cheers,
> Chops.



I haven't really. Just chugging along. I'm still more than fully invested though - about 130% ie, 30% drawn down on the margin loan. I'm normally at 50%. I've made a mistake by not having any financials over the past year. I've been relying on managed funds to invest in those for me.


----------



## mildew79 (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

wave traders will suggest we are in for a last run. wave trading is very accurate in predicting xao but i would not be so confident to be on margin atm. 

remember this last year??? we had a false break and alot of traders / investors poured there money in. one day later we had a reversal and they were left with there pants down.

djia due for profit takers also (see chart). this may well be the trigger.


----------



## Sean K (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mildew79 said:


> wave traders will suggest we are in for a last run. wave trading is very accurate in predicting xao but i would not be so confident to be on margin atm.
> 
> remember this last year??? we had a false break and alot of traders / investors poured there money in. one day later we had a reversal and they were left with there pants down.
> 
> djia due for profit takers also (see chart). this may well be the trigger.



Thanks Mildew. The MACD divergence on your charts makes my ears prick up, although it looks to have just started to turn up again, as it did May 06. I have RSI about 75 ish so possibly a bit more to go before a top as you say. Interesting.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Back in the danger zone for another pullback?
> 
> It hasn't managed to stay above the yellow line for long so far.
> 
> ...




GreatPig can you please post up an updated XAO chart with the Yellow line?

Thanks


----------



## chops_a_must (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> that consolidation looked very much like a wave 4 imo Chops so if I were long I'd probably be looking to use the jump to lighten up a bit as I think we're close to a turn - all imho - we could see another couple of hundred on XAO / ASX but I reckon it'll be cooked by then
> Ed



I agree.

I don't know much at all about EW theory and identification etc. but even to a layman like me, it looks pretty clear we are into a W5 with W1 ending in May last year.

It also looks as if a lot of blue chips have been in very long W4 consolidation patterns. Some for 9 months or more. So to me, the question is: how long will this W5 last? And if the blue chips have had such a long W4 consolidation, is this W5 on the index part of a larger wave structure? Because if it is... the eventual W5 may not be until the end of this year or next... which to me is the likely scenario given the consolidation length of a lot of blue chips, as well as current market conditions.

But since the start of the year, I have been putting money into slightly more negative stocks, gold and precious metals, as well as stocks with mainly domestic demand... whilst shortening my trading horizon.

Given the DOJI appears to have led this wave move... and its W5 has preceeded the others, we may perhaps get a week or so of warning. In any case, I'll be looking at re-arranging my holdings when the DOJI begins to level.

Cheers,
Chops.

P.S. Gold above $700 would be another signal for me to be on my toes...


----------



## Sean K (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> I agree.
> 
> I don't know much at all about EW theory and identification etc. but even to a layman like me, it looks pretty clear we are into a W5 with W1 ending in May last year.
> 
> ...



Wave 5 has a direct correlation to Wave 3. If wave 3 is greater than 1.62, or extended, which I think it was, the Wave 5 ratios are:

Wave 5 either
= Wave 1, or
= 1.62 x wave 1, or
= 2.62 x wave 1

So, what's that add up to ??

A waver might be able to correct this. I'm a jube.


----------



## chops_a_must (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Wave 5 has a direct correlation to Wave 3. If wave 3 is greater than 1.62, or extended, which I think it was, the Wave 5 ratios are:
> 
> Wave 5 either
> = Wave 1, or
> ...



Lol.

Thanks for that Kennas.

By naked eye, it looks as though we could already be in the bottom range of those cases then, with the top side nearing 7000. But yeah, need a waver to help us I think.


----------



## Kauri (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Still in the early E/W learning stages but this is how I am trading the current XJO.. the coloured boxes are the possible min.. typical..and max turning points of the current W5 as I have it labelled.    The larger degree waves have slightly different areas... but also don't discount that waves can and do travel a lot further than expected at times..


----------



## Edwood (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

yep thats the '4' I was referring to Kauri - ie the most recent consolidation

3 can't be the shortest, so 5 could just keep extending.  fwiw I reckon we are all in China's hands now... read an interesting comment on that recently, apparently they now own the equivalent of 50% of Fannie Mae!!!!


----------



## Edwood (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

sorry, last post cryptic - your 3 is longer than 1 so it would be valid for 5 to extend...


----------



## mildew79 (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i suppose the question is, how much upside profits are there to be had? and is it worth the risk of missing correction bargains?

i dont think there is to much left. feel my money is better waiting for value entries on a down move.

closing all my positions before each days end atm. intra day only(no overnight holdings)

nice e/w kauri.


----------



## GreatPig (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As requested.

Note that since last time I've moved the top yellow line up a fraction, which makes it appear as resistance now rather than the support it might have become before.

One of the uncertainties of this sort of thing. I've noticed a similar thing with charts in Guppy's newsletters, where he'll maybe comment on some trend line now acting as support but where my same trendline is placed a little different and appears to be acting as resistance. It's all open to interpretation.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Edwood (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

good charts guys.  a little off topic but relevant for all of us imo is a recent long-term chart for China.  with 1million new accounts opening a week and people buying using equity withdrawal and credit cards...  late-comers will be toasted


----------



## Kimosabi (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> good charts guys. a little off topic but relevant for all of us imo is a recent long-term chart for China. with 1million new accounts opening a week and people buying using equity withdrawal and credit cards... late-comers will be toasted





  This is the most awesome chart ever, pity it's not the ASX though....


----------



## Edwood (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

aye its wicked alright - from a guy called Marty Chenard - don't know that we'll get to his target but food for thought.  problem is I don't want to be short ASX yet, but am nervous taking longs


----------



## GreatPig (4 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Today's action looks interesting. Can it remain above the channel though, or do I need to adjust the line again? 

Cheers,
GP


----------



## wintermute (5 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi greatpig, this is my interpretation of a long term trend channel for the XAO... from this interpretation I'd say we broke above the channel (which has been going for almost 20 years) a while back. 

I take some liberties with my trend lines, with breaches every now and then, I'm not sure whether it is important for them to be 100% parallel or not, but I have ensured that they are. 

Anyway not going to try and interpret it, except to say that to me it looks pretty bullish!




Tony.


----------



## UraniumLover (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> aye its wicked alright - from a guy called Marty Chenard - don't know that we'll get to his target but food for thought.  problem is I don't want to be short ASX yet, but am nervous taking longs




Correction due in a week or so looking at the MACD and slow stocchastic indicators which are near peaks in my opinion. Will be very surprised if it doesn't hit soon.


----------



## wintermute (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Certainly from my perspective the RSI is looking rather perilous as well, monthly is way over bought, and weekly is now once again getting very close to the 80 mark.... if you look at the last few corrections it has generally happened at the point where monthly rsi was at or over 80 (around the 83 to 85 mark) and the weekly RSI also touched 80.

I'm still in two minds about it though, I think that the "correction that wasn't" in march may have taken the caution out of a lot of investors, thinking that the correction for this year has been and gone.  Time will tell I guess  but I'm not planning at this stage to start offloading like before I did a couple of months ago in anticipation of the correction in March (which I was a couple of weeks too early on). 

Tony.


----------



## nizar (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



UraniumLover said:


> Correction due in a week or so looking at the MACD and slow stocchastic indicators which are near peaks in my opinion. Will be very surprised if it doesn't hit soon.




Yeh??
Well i will be very suprised if we have a correction soon because rather than focussing on (lagging) indicators, i usually focus on price.

And if you look at the previous 4 or 5 corrections, the XAO had gone very verticle just prior to the correction, on this occasion we have been doing sideways for about 3 weeks prior to the big candle on wednesday. Just shows how much money was on the sidelines bracing themselves for the correction.

If we have say 2 more weeks of straight upwards movement then maybe but as it stands, i dont believe we are about to have a correction.

In my opinion..


----------



## wavepicker (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Yeh??
> 
> And if you look at the previous 4 or 5 corrections, the XAO had gone very verticle just prior to the correction, on this occasion we have been doing sideways for about 3 weeks prior to the big candle on wednesday. Just shows how much money was on the sidelines bracing themselves for the correction.
> If we have say 2 more weeks of straight upwards movement then maybe but as it stands, i dont believe we are about to have a correction.
> ...




It's quite true that markets often "climax" before a reversal, but other times they may exhibit distribution before a reversal, so just because the previous corrections ended with a climax, does not necessarily mean this will be the case. Quite often after a very long bull market there may be a top building process which takes quite some time to unwind. Look at the the DJIA for instance in 2000-2001. 

We are quite fortunate to have had such a strong trend for so long, this is not your "normal" market as these sorts of rates of change of price will not last forever. Everyone who enters the market knows this, but the question is where and when? Anyone can enter the market, but knowing when to get out that, that is much harder and ultimately peoples hope and greed will be much greater than their common sense.

Remember your bullish comments just prior the last correction Nizar??  "Let the good time roll on", 2 days later  the market tanked itin a big way. So given the bullishness by most people in the market at present, one would not be surprised to see quite another significant correction very soon. Thereafter the bull may continue and you will have pundits doubling up their positions and buying every pullback imaginable and from every rebound from another correction. Until one day we won't make a new high and they will get burned like most did in the dot com era and 87 era, but most pundits today are quite young and did not participate in those manias and as such have no fear. For them, the markets(all markets)  have only one direction "up" because that is all that they that theyknow.

Every mania is unique in that it's different from the last, very few have been able to call a level and time when the psychology will start to shift and a major trend change will occur.  Some have been fortunate enough when all the right patterns at various degrees of trend have come togther at the right time. 
The only things that all manias have had in common throughout history is that the warning signs were there long before the market finally peaked, and they have ended in bust without exception.

Good Luck


----------



## nizar (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Remember your bullish comments just prior the last correction Nizar??  "Let the good time roll on", 2 days later  the market tanked itin a big way.




Yeh i do remember that.
Corrections come at times when nobody expects, and since youve got time to read back through the posts of several months ago, how many people then correctly called for the correction before it happened, probably not many, except maybe you of course 

As for your "bullishness by most people" comment??
From my observations, most people on here are bears calling for a correction - in the odd one out saying that this run will continue for some time...


----------



## wavepicker (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Yeh i do remember that.
> Corrections come at times when nobody expects, and since youve got time to read back through the posts of several months ago, how many people then correctly called for the correction before it happened, probably not many, except maybe you of course
> 
> As for your "bullishness by most people" comment??
> From my observations, most people on here are bears calling for a correction - in the odd one out saying that this run will continue for some time...





Nizar, I don't have much time to look at the old posts. In fact I have made but 2-3 posts here in the last few months. I just remember your comment because it was in direct opposition to certain other posters here( I can't remember who ATM) back then. No disrespect to you though intended

Sure there are bears calling for a correction this site, but let's face it, most of the talk has been on individual stock threads here, with the odd posts on systems and international markets etc. Obviously a large proportion of this community is specualting on individual stocks. You see when we have a correction and the holders of these intruments find their investments retreating, I have noticed more talk shifts to systems and analysis.  Quite normal I would say, because in a strong bull market most have the impression they can make $$ doing nothing, whereas nothing can be further from the truth. When the bear comes, then some turn to TA, and realise that this business takes work and effort and is not as easy as they first thought it was.

As for calling a peak on this site 2 months back. I publically did not. There was only one person who did and that was Magdoran, the price level and the day. An excellent call

Will be interesting to see what the market does from here on end.

Cheers


----------



## chops_a_must (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

WP,

Just wondering how you can personally reconcile the cautious tone here whilst proclaiming such an aggressive outcome for a blue chip such as OXR?

Up or down, I'll trade the market on what's in front of me. If you are more cautious now than ever, or if your caution changes during different times, to me it says you aren't in the right frame of mind to be trading anyway (not directed at you WP, but making a general point). At the moment you should have plans in place for any outcome, but that is the same as at anytime IMO.

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## constable (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> WP,
> 
> At the moment you should have plans in place for any outcome, but that is the same as at anytime IMO.
> 
> ...




Chops what is your plan when the day rolls around when the market, on open smashes thru your stop loss?
Unless you are that far in the black you couldnt give a toss (and im sure there are quite a few out there), to have plans in place for any outcome is a bit of a trading utopia!


----------



## chops_a_must (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



constable said:


> Chops what is your plan when the day rolls around when the market, on open smashes thru your stop loss?
> Unless you are that far in the black you couldnt give a toss (and im sure there are quite a few out there), to have plans in place for any outcome is a bit of a trading utopia!



Well yeah, I'm happy with my returns for the year already, so it isn't a big deal for me. Even a 10-20% correction/ crash which would annoy me wouldn't be the end of the world for me. I'm not holding any losses at the moment, and most stops are at breakeven, and if stocks do gap through my stops, I would look at getting out at the original (previous) stop.

But you can bet your bottom dollar, if this did happen, I'd be at the Perth Mint in short time. Lol!


----------



## wavepicker (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> WP,
> 
> Just wondering how you can personally reconcile the cautious tone here whilst proclaiming such an aggressive outcome for a blue chip such as OXR?
> 
> ...




Hi Chops,

My opinion/expectation for something like OXR is for a move over the next 12 months. I expect this move up to the terminal move.  I could also be very wrong as we are dealing with probabilities here.

My responses are just general observations I see to the hyper bulishness at times. As far as caution goes, it does not exist in my trading but only patience. The only things that exists in the markets are possibilities/probabilities and no certainties both bullish and bearish. At the moment in the market all I see is recklesness speculation with $$ being thrown on anything that is moving up.  

In so far as being in the right/wrong frame of mind to trade, that is governed ones circumstances ( ie psychology, time contraints, distractions among othings). Just because you trade anything that moves, does not mean you are in the right frame of mind. Anyone can put on a trade. For me certain criteria have to be met with regard to:
-price
-pattern of the trend
-cycles
-time 

before a trade is to be considered.

At the moment the main thing on most pundits minds is where prices are going. Which means there just following everyone else.

As for as having plans in place for any outcome, ask the rabbits who speculated in 87 and 2000 what happened to their contigency plans. I'll tell you what happended, that got gapped right through very quickly.

Cheers


----------



## wintermute (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Hi Chops,
> 
> At the moment in the market all I see is recklesness speculation with $$ being thrown on anything that is moving up.




Absolutely!!! It astounds me at times just how high stocks are climbing based on nothing but speculation!  This is I think actually one of the signs that the market is getting to the point where it will start to go parabolic and every man and his dog will be jossling to get a position. 

I try to pick stocks that I think are undervalued and wait for them to be re-rated, It surprises me how often people say get off it and get onto something that is making money!! making 30% gains in a week is great if you can get them, but IMO it is far from normal!! 

Just another reason why I don't think we are going to see a correction in the short term, I think we will see the market go nuts, followed by a crash... if it happens the scary part will be trying to ride it and deciding when to pull the pin, BUT hopefully if the right stocks have been picked, even if caught holding a few the effects wont be quite so drastic. 

Tony.


----------



## chops_a_must (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wintermute said:


> Absolutely!!! It astounds me at times just how high stocks are climbing based on nothing but speculation!  This is I think actually one of the signs that the market is getting to the point where it will start to go parabolic and every man and his dog will be jossling to get a position.



Yes, it is happening, but at the moment it seems to be limited to U stocks mainly. Warning bells will ring when everything goes vertical, even stocks that are losing money. At that stage it will probably be worth while closing every trade at the end of the day. That way you can still get some return without risking any of your money...

It's probably just as well for me I have ethical problems with U stocks. Lol.


----------



## nizar (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> As for as having plans in place for any outcome, ask the rabbits who speculated in 87 and 2000 what happened to their contigency plans. I'll tell you what happended, that got gapped right through very quickly.





Wave.
People so tend to focus on the negatives but i reckon there were professionals who wouldnt cleaned up during 1987 and also during the dot.com. Why cant we just be those guys instead of the rabbits?
I think if we had a 20% fall in one day most of us would still be ahead for the year. If every one of my stocks halved id be sitting on about breakeven. So lets keep things in perspective here, if we were to have a repeat of 1987, then please lets have 1986 first we are nowhere close to the spike that occured before that crash. October 1986 to October 1987 all ords return was 88%, we are sitting on about 24%. Long way to go. They say history repeats itself, so i say, please history, repeat yourself now! 

Chops.
Stops should only move one way. And thats up.


----------



## chops_a_must (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Chops.
> Stops should only move one way. And thats up.



Yes, I realise this, but that comment was in response to a "what if?" And as such, in an instance where my current stop was gapped past, I would be looking at getting out above the level I had previously considered acceptable.


----------



## nizar (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Yes, I realise this, but that comment was in response to a "what if?" And as such, in an instance where my current stop was gapped past, I would be looking at getting out above the level I had previously considered acceptable.




Yeh well each to his own.
I dont change my trading plan to incorporate what ifs.
My stop never moves down.
I take it you assume that any big red day is the start of a "correction" and then we will be off an away again.
I dont make such assumptions.
How about if the next day is a gap down below your "new" stop  

Remember you can always buy back. And yeh your average price may not be so good and you may have chopped a winner too early or whatever, but for me, im happy to pay the cost of insurance.


----------



## chops_a_must (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I shouldn't need to repost Niz... but, *"I would be looking at getting out above the level I had previously considered acceptable."*

But I'm confused... If it gapped past your stop... you wouldn't sell? I set rather wide stops... so if they do get hit, I see it as a pretty significant move, likely to move on the market/ stock longer than a day or 4.

And no, I don't see any big red day as the beginning of a correction Lol. Just take a look at the piss takes on the market commentary thread...


----------



## wavepicker (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Wave.
> People so tend to focus on the negatives but i reckon there were professionals who wouldnt cleaned up during 1987 and also during the dot.com. Why cant we just be those guys instead of the rabbits?
> I think if we had a 20% fall in one day most of us would still be ahead for the year. If every one of my stocks halved id be sitting on about breakeven. So lets keep things in perspective here, if we were to have a repeat of 1987, then please lets have 1986 first we are nowhere close to the spike that occured before that crash. October 1986 to October 1987 all ords return was 88%, we are sitting on about 24%. Long way to go. They say history repeats itself, so i say, please history, repeat yourself now!
> 
> ...




Chops I think if we had a 20% fall many would see that as a buying opportunity. It probably would be too, but what if a retest failed, just like it did in the dot com era?? This is where psychology comes into play. So pretty soon you are sitting on 40% loss instead of the original 20%. Ohh, and beleive you me most will buy back in!!! You can bet on it. What you say about 86 is quite true, but also if you look at the long term  history of the index, this last few years has sent the index parabolic with rate of change ever increasing. When markets go almost vertical they don't stay that way long. Almost like a capitulation move in reverse. If anything a move in the opposite direction will at least pause the trend for a while. Don't get us wrong, I am trying to be a doomsday merchant here, just realistic. Sure the market may be bullish for a while to come, but descent correction would be more healthy for it to use a "springboard" to send prices higher, don't you think?? Continuing with this sort of rate of change of price will almost certainly cause catastrophe.


----------



## UraniumLover (6 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Remember your bullish comments just prior the last correction Nizar??  "Let the good time roll on", 2 days later  the market tanked itin a big way. So given the bullishness by most people in the market at present, one would not be surprised to see quite another significant correction very soon.
> Good Luck




I agree wiith this analysis WavePicker. . I think you should listen to what the indicators are saying Nizar as you may get your pants wet once again..

I'd rather pull out earlier than latter when it's too late.
So i still stand by my statement of 1-2 weeks of upward movement before a correction may occur.
 It's impossible to know exactly when but that's my estimate.
WavePicker maybe able to enlighten us when it may occur.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (7 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have seen a RSI indicator sit in over bought for about 2 weeks while the price kept on rising in RIO Tinto.

I take over bought signels as nothing more then a maybe what could happen.

I am in China right now so can't post any charts but like the night a correction will come then as long as there is still hunger there will be another rise.

Historicaly we are in shakey months right now but that does not mean anything. trends and prices are random and are never exactly the same. all we can do is watch and take the nessercy action to profit from the situation.

I must say China is a amazing place the city I am in now was half as small 2 years ago! The economy here is just unbelievable.

Some of the chinese are really living it up. but for a chinese the cost of living is as high to slightly higher then in Australia!


----------



## mildew79 (7 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

there are to many mugs making money at the moment. no trading plans, no exit strategies, no profit targets, and no risk management. it is usually when these mugs feel they are onto a good thing the market dishes a wake up call in my experience.  

ill be waiting on the sidelines until it happens (i shall still trade intra day). for me to change my mind i shall need to see many indicators return to an oversold position.


----------



## steven1234 (7 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't think a major correction is imminent as there is too much money sitting on the sidelines waiting to jump in at the moment (including all the super money).  

As for after June... anything can happen.


----------



## nizar (8 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

With BHP in the M&A spotlight and its share price about to break all time highs of $32.00, this could carry the market higher.

RIO also has just broken its May 2006 high.

Its been banks, financials, and industrials carrying our market the last year or so. Maybe time for resource and oil stocks to join them?

I was going to say resources and oil stocks take over the lead, but too much super money pouring into banks, financials and industrials. Last month banks were 4.6% which is heaps going by historical measures i read somewher...


----------



## Moneybags (8 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Niz,

I'm not sure what to make of all this. Bulls versus bears and all that. But I did notice my Bank stocks jumping considerably recently and took this as a sign people were readying themselves for a correction. Now I'm not so sure.

The jump in BHP & RIO yesterday surprised me, especially as BHP was looking lethargic only a few days ago and looking to reverse. I'm hoping BHP will head higher and crack last years high, and reward the faithful.

MB


----------



## nizar (8 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Todays Age:

_Recent UBS analysis suggested that, if spot prices were to prevail, BHP's valuation would be more like $60 a share and Rio's more like $149 a share._

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...cles-of-raiders/2007/05/07/1178390225870.html


----------



## mildew79 (8 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

amazing advances by bhp and rio. does look enccouraging for you holders.

still, my trading rules shall not allow me to enter at this stage. ill watch and congratulate from the side for a while yet 

although the xao index and materials have enjoyed a good run the last few days, many of the shares i recently exited have not yet returned to my exit price.....interesting. 

expect selling pressure on the dj @ 13400 - 13600.


----------



## steven1234 (8 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Budget released, tax cuts announced.  

Could this persude some to not sell off and take profits this financial year?  

Could we see a sell off after 1 july 07 where the profits from the current bull run are taken (so as to avoid paying taxes in this period)?


----------



## wavepicker (8 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just mulling over XAO tonight trying to look at the charts as objectively as possible. We just might be coming up to some sort of correction here(How big not sure yet). The critical level is 6362pts. If that is breached then the wave count posted is invalidated and something completely different is happening. We have a "throwover" on the weekly chart where wave 5 has penetrated the upper channel on lower vol. Sometimes these may precede a correction.

Zooming into the daily chart there is the  possiblity that we have a completed impulse here but there are also other possibilities.

All the dominant cycles on the daily chart appear to be either topping or already pointed down. Have determined the average cycle lengths from earlier cycle minima and projected forward an expected cycle length. But cycles do expand and contract as time goes by so these expected cycle lengths may not be very accurate and should only be used as a guide. Nevertheless they do show valuable information about the pattern of the trend and about the price patterns forming

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (9 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Just mulling over XAO tonight trying to look at the charts as objectively as possible. Cheers



Thanks WP. I have to agree with what you've generally got there, although I'm still very much a newbie with EW. I haven't seen that charting software before, what is it? kennas


----------



## wavepicker (9 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Thanks WP. I have to agree with what you've generally got there, although I'm still very much a newbie with EW. I haven't seen that charting software before, what is it? kennas




Hi Kennas,

The software is Advanced Get, although it has not generated the wave counts. They are just my thoughts at present. Generally just use AGet as a whiteboard and maker. Lower chart was generated from Globar Forex Trading platform, Dealbook360, but code for cycles was generated by myself

Cheers


----------



## nizar (9 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Just mulling over XAO tonight trying to look at the charts as objectively as possible. We just might be coming up to some sort of correction here(How big not sure yet). The critical level is 6362pts. If that is breached then the wave count posted is invalidated and something completely different is happening. We have a "throwover" on the weekly chart where wave 5 has penetrated the upper channel on lower vol. Sometimes these may precede a correction.
> 
> Zooming into the daily chart there is the  possiblity that we have a completed impulse here but there are also other possibilities.
> 
> ...




Thanks for your thoughts.
Nice software as well


----------



## hacheln_mice (9 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just raising a possibility here.  Most recent major declines (May 2006, Feb 2007) have been preceded by a broadening wedge formation, so maybe the next correction might be the same...?  This has got a target of ~6500 by mid June. (Sorry, used xjo here).

Just food for thought for the chart chompers out there, nothing more.


----------



## Nick Radge (9 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*







*BOTTOM LINE 
9/5:*
EW Trend: Up  _*CAUTION!*_
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: n/a
*4/5:*
EW Trend: Up
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: n/a 
*LAYMANS ANALYSIS 
9/5:*
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 43 secs)
It's only been a few days since the last update, but today was no ordinary day. When you see two of the top six capitalised stocks go through the roof and back again, you need to take notice. RIO and BHP were all action on rumour and innuendo. Who really knows? What we do know from a technical perspective is that both exhibited classic traits of blow-off tops. I stated just recently (May 1st) that BHP had the possibility of hitting $32.50. Today's high? $32.58. Today's close? $31.93. Volume wasn't overly high at all, so quite possibly we can look at it's movement as lack of follow through demand. RIO is a slightly different, and more bearish concern. My target was $101.52. Today's high? $99.69. Today's close? $95.50. But, the big difference is volume. RIO had ultra high volume. This combined with a low close suggests supply and in turn suggests we may have seen a serious high. Yes we could go on with it, but it says to me that the market doesn't think so. This is a classic blow-off top in RIO and I suggest anyone who has been long basis my analysis of late March take serious note. The XJO also missed the "squeeze" to 6400 by just a few points. An old market adage, "don't be a dick for a tick" basically means it's not about perfection. We've achieved what we expected and we're now showing signs of reversing - now. We may well see the XJO back to 6100 over the coming few weeks - CAUTION.
*4/5:*
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 36 secs)
The pace of these gains is unrelenting. We're seeing something truly special in these markets driven by the resources boom and the influx of funds from SMSF's. At the rate we're going we could see 6700 by end of June. At this stage however we're getting very close to being over-extended but we may still squeeze to 6400 over the next week before completing this stage of the trend. Assuming that will occur, I would then expect, aligned with the US market, a reversal of these current gains back to the 6000 to 6100 area, aligned with the major highs set in February. There is of course always a chance that the anticipated reversal will only show itself as a sideways consolidation pattern without a great deal of underlying weakness. Either way, further gains through to 6700 are still possible. It would take a break back through 5917 so suggest this current pattern has terminated. 

*TECHNICAL DISCUSSION 
9/5:*
The XJO has pushed within 18-points of the 6400 target for this wave. It;s highly probable that we've seen a wave-v and therefore the intermediate degree wave-(iii) high. As such we should now expect wave-(iv) to unfold back toward 6100 over the coming weeks. Today was not high volume, but the low close combination suggests lack of demand. Lack of demand means that it may not take a great deal to knock the market back down again. If RIO and/or BHP come out and refute these rumours we could see quite a dramatic reversal of fortune. I stress caution here. The risk is to the downside and 6100 is in my sights, although this is still seen as a corrective move within a larger up trend. It would take a break below 5917 to get bearish though.
*4/5:*
The impulsive pattern discussed earlier this week has sub-divided into a smaller degree labelled in MAGENTA. The wave-v target for this structure is circa 6400 coinciding with the upper side of the channel. A completion of this degree wave-v will therefore signal the completion of the intermediate degree wave-(iii) and this will be followed by some setbacks as wave-(iv) unfolds. I guess we need to continue to suggest this strength remains firmly in place until June 31. By that stage we could see the 261.8x wave-(i) at 6700.


_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information._


----------



## wavepicker (9 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> *BOTTOM LINE
> 9/5:*
> EW Trend: Up  _*CAUTION!*_
> Price Trend: Up
> ...





Totally agree re your analysis on RIO Nick.  Today could well be a top in the making for RIO of some degree.  I have the sideways move in RIO  for the last number of months as some sort of  contracting triangle 4th wave(not sure what degree of trend at this stage and it doesn't matter). The point here is that these patterns precede the last actionary wave in an impulse(wave 5 and these are usually by the height of the triangle itself) added to the last wave of the triangle (subwave e). The ensuing wave 5 is usually quite a sharp "thrust" or blowoff and usually happens on lower volume.

If I have seen these patterns once, then I have seen them 1000 times!! I hope other EW paractioners start to take notice of these, as a number of practioners have posted fine examples in other threads. They can be a very poweful signal.

Will be inetersting to see what follows in the days and weeks ahead.

Cheers


----------



## nizar (9 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Totally agree re your analysis on RIO Nick.  Today could well be a top in the making for RIO of some degree.  I have the sideways move in RIO  for the last number of months as some sort of  contracting triangle 4th wave(not sure what degree of trend at this stage and it doesn't matter). The point here is that these patterns precede the last actionary wave in an impulse(wave 5 and these are usually by the height of the triangle itself) added to the last wave of the triangle (subwave e). The ensuing wave 5 is usually quite a sharp "thrust" or blowoff and usually happens on lower volume.
> 
> If I have seen these patterns once, then I have seen them 1000 times!! I hope other EW paractioners start to take notice of these, as a number of practioners have posted fine examples in other threads. They can be a very poweful signal.
> 
> ...





Also agree regarding RIO with both Wave and Nick.
But remember RIO has very small weighting on the indices compared to BHP...


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (9 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just remember guys a Takeover offer for RIO at $110- $130 would screw your theory re Blow Off top, I was told todays buying was mainly Insto's, Friday and Monday was Overseas Insto's, Tuesday and Today were local


----------



## reece55 (9 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Just remember guys a Takeover offer for RIO at $110- $130 would screw your theory re Blow Off top, I was told todays buying was mainly Insto's, Friday and Monday was Overseas Insto's, Tuesday and Today were local




True..... however one thing to note in the mix is that on Monday, according to the ASX, 2.6% of RIO's stock was short sold. To me, this wasn't insto's buying from a price action point of view - the run up was generated on rumour. We got to 99.60 level just before 2.00 pm, where the insto's are normally on lunch and then it was strategically sold down throughout the afternoon. My opinion - this is just rife rumours - Rio confirms BHP isn't in the mix and the close on the middle of the bar reeks of impulsive, scrambling buyers, the shorts covering at all costs and strategic sales of stock by big holders.... I am with Nick here, everything points to a sell down tomorrow. If the rumours were true, my feeling is we would have closed on the highs, because the instos would have wanted in at all costs....

However, for the broader index, today was definately a warning sign in general.....

Best of luck to all traders!

Cheers
Reece


----------



## Nick Radge (12 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here is an updated chart but with my seasonal timing dates added in. The horizontal lines are typical seasonal changes in trend and you can see that of late they hold well against the EW counts that I have. Note to the far left that Mar 2 was the start of seasonal strength and also coincided with the significant lows. 

Green means seasonal strength coming in
Red means seasonal weakness coming in
Grey means sideways.

We've possibly got a wave-(iii) in place (mentioned a few days ago) which coincides with seasonal weakness starting on or near May 14 and running through to May 21. Therefore I'd be looking at this period as the wave-(iv) decline to unfold down to the support area.


----------



## Edwood (22 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

so given that we've had no retrace to speak of Nick I guess you'd be looking for onwards & upwards from here from May 21?

I ran some automated point & figure counts across ASX / XAO a few days ago, gave targets in the low 6,400's then up to 6,700 & 6,800


----------



## wavepicker (22 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have been doing a study into Cycles Analysis now for a number on years in order to resolve ambiguities or flaws in other methods that I such as EW. 

I have progressed a very far, but so far have not been able to extrapolate combinations of current cycles into the future( although much can be gleaned and in fact forecast, without doing this simply looking at the cycles at the current juncture)

The Foundation For the Study Of Cycles in the USA have created a peice of software called Techsignal based on historical data for conducting Cycles Analysis. The more data it has to work with the better the results that can be expected. 

Someone requested they do a study on the Aussie market (in this case the SPI200)

The results seem to gel quite nicely with other forms of analysis on this thread such as EW. This is a computer generated forecast and does not mean it will happen!! But it's just interesting how it fits in with other analysis

http://cyclesresearch.net/SPI200.htm


----------



## nizar (22 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> I have been doing a study into Cycles Analysis now for a number on years in order to resolve ambiguities or flaws in other methods that I such as EW.
> 
> I have progressed a very far, but so far have not been able to extrapolate combinations of current cycles into the future( although much can be gleaned and in fact forecast, without doing this simply looking at the cycles at the current juncture)
> 
> ...




Hi wave,

Had a look at the link , is the projection supposed to read 5400-ish by the beginning of June?

DId i read it correctly?

I noticed how the program was way off at the beginning of the chart.


----------



## wavepicker (22 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks that way nizar, but once again I am not exactly sure how reliable this thing is as I have never used it.

Yes it was way of the mark the on the left hand side. Down the bottom of the chart there is list of how many cycles have been used for the analysis. There are 11 boxes that are checked. Theoretically there are infinite number of cycles possible but I dare say this has used the dominant cycles for the analysis(based on an FFT analysis) to make the projection. If all the cycles were used, and then summed together then the cycle trace should exactly match the original price series.

I have seen various neural network softwares that do a similar thing. Sometimes their projections are spot on and other times they are way off the mark.  Just thought I would post this as a comparison to other analysis being put forward.

Cheers


----------



## Teddy Bear (24 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dear N/R,
Could you up date and repost your chart as very interesting and would like to see more.  Tks
TB


----------



## be_8_el (25 May 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Here is an updated chart but with my seasonal timing dates added in. The horizontal lines are typical seasonal changes in trend and you can see that of late they hold well against the EW counts that I have. Note to the far left that Mar 2 was the start of seasonal strength and also coincided with the significant lows.
> 
> Green means seasonal strength coming in
> Red means seasonal weakness coming in
> ...






hi N Radge, im newbie to chart.
 From your chart here is that means that the major correction will not happen till 24 june?


----------



## nizar (4 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think the bull is back guys.

We havent had this sort of action on the XAO on a monday morning for a while now.

After sideways for most of May, i think its time to begin the next upleg.

After going up for a bit, then maybe we can have a correction.

But for now, just sit back, and enjoy the ride


----------



## hacheln_mice (4 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Don't think it's time to sit back just yet.  Still need to get above that broken trendline.  The turn cycle is also approaching.


----------



## nizar (5 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks to me like a classic break into blue skies


----------



## Sean K (5 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Looks to me like a classic break into blue skies



Could be, but it's also poked it's head up through the BB, moved a long way from the 200d ma, stochs moving to overbought, and the *MACD is diverging from the chart*. Spells consolidation at least to me. But, I've been saying that for 6 months.  

I'll be right one day.


----------



## hacheln_mice (7 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think one always needs to keep in mind 'dynamic' resistance such as the underbelly of a broken trendline or the upper rail a channel before considering a breakout into 'blue skies'.  That's why I was somewhat skeptical of the breakout on Monday.  I'm not saying that we can't go any higher, just that we need to keep in mind that the upside will _tend_ (but not guaranteed) to be limited by the resistance areas shown.

That said, if 6286 holds for a few days, then this would be somewhat bullish in the short term.


----------



## hacheln_mice (8 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Mind the broadening pattern, and the divergences.  Just something to think about...


----------



## CanOz (8 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Agree HM, nice charts too.

Got to get some shorts on me thinks!

Cheers,


----------



## dodgers (8 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's macquarie's view..

Prices traded through critical support at 6232 today, closing below this level. Given the break there is a high risk that the 6428 high of recent days ended wave v of 5 of a sequence from the June 2006 low (how this fits into the longer term structure is less clear), implying that a major downturn has begun. Further trading below 6232 and a break of lower support at the 6149-57 region would strongly suggest that this is the case, with downside risk then to the 5614 March low and potentially further. Prices need to recover through resistance at 6340 to negate the downside risk and to signal that the advance is not yet complete.


----------



## dlineinvestor (8 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hacheln mice's chart reminded me of the T/A signal of when an instrument comes up to meet a broken trend line. You short it, something I missed.
The points about the broadening out trend angles are very powerful factors too. The news released this week about US bond yields jumping past 5% hasn't help either. With lower base metal prices at the moment no significant news can offset these factors. As strong demand for base metals are still in effect perhaps a second run will take place on stronger base metals news.


----------



## Sean K (9 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

6250 looks more important now. Should probably see a rise back to 6300 ish, on Monday with US recovery, oil off, and with the US _expected_ to continue gains next week, perhaps there's a little left to run. 

MACD still diverging, and the markets about 11 % above the 200 d ma. Was about 13% in May 06. Other indicators on 6 month chart look pretty bearish!!

On down side, support should remain at 6250 ish, minor 6150, then 6000, and 5700 _ish_ on the long term chart. Potential collision with 200d ma at 6000 ish should be a floor IMO, with long term bull in tact. 

Will be a mountain of resistance at 6400 now, but the longs will hope Shane Oliver is right. 

When was he predicting the XAO to double by?


----------



## nomore4s (13 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Was looking at the XAO on a weekly chart (over 5 years) using a logarithmic axis. It looks to be in a fairly tight up trending channel, but what got my attention was that every time it looked to push through or did break the top line it pulled back into the channel and toward (generally came down to meet) the 30 week MA. Maybe we could be due for a pullback toward the MA?




As per post 415 above, updated chart. Just pulling back into channel now but 30week MA is at around 5925.


----------



## nomore4s (13 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And here's a 2 year weekly chart. Been in trading channel since around Sept 06, now hitting support at 6200 (also some support on daily chart at this level), maybe interesting if it breaks this level considering it didn't break this support even during the "May correction" last year, next support at 6120 ish? Then after that under 6000?


----------



## theasxgorilla (15 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I use the 40-day and 200-day simple-moving-averages as reference points to ascertain whereabouts the index is relative to previous measures.

From my observations anytime the closing values on the XAO start to toy around with the low side of the 40-day SMA its been a sign to pay closer attention as a _correction_ might be around the corner.  For obvious reasons downside penetration of, and in particular a daily or more significantly a weekly close below 6200 must suggest that we can expect to see a deeper pullback than what we have.

As per Kennas's observations, the index is a LONG way north of its 200-day MA.    A rebalancing of this relationship may be due.  Its probably worth stating that I wont actually make any trades based on this information, so its put here simply for interest sake and a bit of fun.


----------



## Magdoran (15 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> I use the 40-day and 200-day simple-moving-averages as reference points to ascertain whereabouts the index is relative to previous measures.
> 
> From my observations anytime the closing values on the XAO start to toy around with the low side of the 40-day SMA its been a sign to pay closer attention as a _correction_ might be around the corner.  For obvious reasons downside penetration of, and in particular a daily or more significantly a weekly close below 6200 must suggest that we can expect to see a deeper pullback than what we have.
> 
> As per Kennas's observations, the index is a LONG way north of its 200-day MA.    A rebalancing of this relationship may be due.  Its probably worth stating that I wont actually make any trades based on this information, so its put here simply for interest sake and a bit of fun.



Seeing a moving average style of analysis prompts me to make an observation about why I think this type of approach at this juncture in the market is potentially flawed.  Moving averages in my opinion are a very rough tool at the best of times, and are fundamentally flawed because they are a lagging indicator.  Hence as wavepicker says quite rightly that you need to account for the lag in an effective way if you’re going to use them.

The chart shown here looks great if you believe markets are static, and will always have a uniform trend.  Unfortunately this is a mistake.  Sometimes markets will trend in a fairly consistent manner, and sometimes they don’t.

What I think is happening currently is along a key concept McLaren covers in his “Foundations” DVD set, and that is understanding blow off moves.  The core characteristic of blow off moves is that the upward slope of multiple trend lines gradually become more and more acute till the underlying is almost vertical, and “screams” into a top, and either distributes, give a false break and reverses, or has a sharp counter trend and continues.

This is why moving averages can get you in at the wrong time and out at the wrong time (McLaren covers this in telling detail in the “Foundations”).  They can’t differentiate between normal tends and blow off moves.  They just don’t understand different types of trend, period.  (RSI for instance can give misleading “overbought” signals in a bullish blow off and get you out or short at the wrong time).  

Indeed, oscillators and the moving average class of indicators also misread bearish capitulation moves, where the rate of descent INCREASES, and spikes down hard.  Or, the opposite occurs, and the trend slackens off and the angle of the trend becomes more mild, and the oscillator/moving average gives a false positive, and gets you into a trade against the trend at the wrong time, or out of a position when you should be entering it or holding on.

I agree that there should be a correction at some point, and probably a strong one retracing at least somewhere ranging from one quarter to three eighths (or more) of the whole 2002 bullish campaign onwards, but the question is when?  In a blow off move, it is very difficult to tell at this point, since the apparent pattern can be misleading.

I know the levels look ripe for a major pull back right now by conventional means, EW, and even some forms of envelope analysis.  But what I see is a set of cycles still showing bullish attributes that for me are still compelling (by non conventional means).  What I see in the pattern is a set of potential ending diagonals (that wavepicker is a master at), but still think there is strong enough demand to push the market higher currently, or even blow off into a tip of some sort.

The threat to all markets currently is the price action in the US bonds, and potentially crude oil from what I can see.  The T bonds look like they may recover in the interim, but I am swayed by McLaren’s position that these are just stating to trend down (effectively increasing interest rates) for at least the medium term one a bullish counter trend fails (assuming it fails).  Add in the prospect of oil resuming bullishly (it’s looking bullish in the charts from what I can see), and this may have a negative impact on Equity indexes.

The question is if and when this may contribute to a corrective move of some sort, and then if one does eventuate, how far will it move?  My best shot guess is not yet – I expect bullish activity till at least the middle of July, and if the pattern sets up right, may continue and extend beyond this after some kind of halt or pull back.  Just read through my various post on different threads to get the picture.  Of course this is just what I’m seeing, and of course I will modify my views as the market plays out.


Regards,


Magdoran


----------



## Sean K (15 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> Seeing a moving average style of analysis prompts me to make an observation ........................ Of course this is just what I’m seeing, and of course I will modify my views as the market plays out.
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Magdoran



Hi Mag, Thanks for your extensive post, once again. (you must be a damn good typist! I think I've said that before)

In regard to the indicators, I think most of us posting in these threads are generally only using them i as confirmation of a trend, or event, and they are never used in isolation. I really only comment on them to show new investors interested in TA what to look for in conjunction with the chart/price action. I agree, laging, lagging, lagging...

Yes, bound to have a correction, and you don't need to be Mr Elliot to come up with that conclusion. (I'll be right one day!) So, very interested in your time analysis.

As far as time goes I remember you had a date in June as being very important. Was it 12 June? Since that has passed what was your next date for a significant event? Some time in Aug. Sorry, I can't remember where it was posted. 

I am very interested that you mention some fundamental factors in your analysis such as demand and oil, but I had the impression that anything outside of the chart was irrelevant in EW/Gann? 

Can I also ask, what are the bullish attributes to the time cycles you talk about. Can you paste a chart to identify these for me?

I am in a quandry at the moment as to where the general market is going. There is so much liquidity out there trying to find a home and the economy seems sound. RBA Stevens came out with 7 more years of good times yeaterday, but I think that was just in relation to his tenure as Governor.  I'm also thinking the the industrialisation of Chindia is having a more significant effect than even the bulls anticipated. We could be riding the back of a resources boom never seen in history for some years to come. Perhaps any short term corrections are just a waste of time analysing?

Cheers,
kennas


----------



## Magdoran (15 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Hi Mag, Thanks for your extensive post, once again. (you must be a damn good typist! I think I've said that before)
> 
> In regard to the indicators, I think most of us posting in these threads are generally only using them i as confirmation of a trend, or event, and they are never used in isolation. I really only comment on them to show new investors interested in TA what to look for in conjunction with the chart/price action. I agree, laging, lagging, lagging...
> 
> ...



Hello Kennas,


The 12 June date was the one forecast by Bill Mclaren as a potential date of interest given it was 90 calendar days from the major low.  He has since revised this to the June 01 high, and has also altered his cycles to line up with that high.  

I posted this up out of interest since the cycle he was using is different to mine, which is why on that post in the “Trading the SPI Gann techniques” thread I included his cycle as a potential flaw in my thinking at the time.  The cycles I was using lined up around mid July, but noted that this may only be a resistance point in a strong blow off move based on the pattern of trend at the time.

Of course a major correction can come at any time now, all the key EW practitioners agree on this - wavepicker and Nick Radge for instance – both are seeing ending diagonals, and wave structures that suggest a terminal wave structure is in place (see earlier comments on this thread).  

I agree with their interpretation of the EW structure, but the time cycles for me don’t line up to suggest the same probability for a high coming in until mid July for a range of indexes (around the 15-20 July) – I have posted up my current actual projections on various threads.  These are contingent though on the pattern playing out.

And yes, this could extend to a number of later dates in August and October, but posting these up now will only confuse people – if I posted up a sea of dates with no analysis or explanation in context with the underlying, this would be of little value.  I try to give my best shot interpretation of what the time point could mean in the context of what the underlying is doing, and once the time point has passed give an appraisal of what this means, even if it is to say the cycle is no longer valid, or that the way the underlying moved into the date suggests a modification to the original interpretation.

Why I look at other charts outside of the actual chart I’m looking at, is when another factor (oil or a metal for example that is relevant to the underlying you are looking at) could effect the underlying you are currently forecasting, especially something relevant say like Zinc prices are to ZFX.  Also, currency fluctuations, interest rates (bonds) etc are all relevant to major indexes, aren’t they?  Not to take the potential effect these have into account is possible; I just don’t think it is prudent.  What they can do is to ameliorate or magnify the patterns I am seeing, and can accelerate of slow a trend sometimes if you can work out the effect accurately enough.

As for the future, I really don’t know if a catastrophic crash is around the corner or not.  The reality is that this bull run is statistically within the top 10 runs in history, and may move even higher up that ladder in the near future – hence some caution is certainly prudent.  But statistics are just that – statistics.  As Douglas says, “every moment in the market is unique” and “anything can happen”.

What I can say is that the China bubble is huge, and parallels bubbles in history such as the British South Seas Bubble in 1720 and the Tulip bulb mania in Holland in the 1630s.  When the Shanghai composite collapses, who knows what the effect will be outside of China.  But that’s the problem, when is the music going to stop, and who’ll be holding the parcel?

Another point to consider is the effect hedging and being able to use bearish instruments will have.  Whether this works to insulate organisations from risk via hedging, or if in fact these instruments will accelerate any bearish effects is uncertain.

What I can say is that I’d expect a retracement of at least 25% of the run up in the XAO from the 2002 low to whatever the high will be, maybe 33%, maybe 5/8ths of the range, maybe more – 50%, who knows.  What it will probably be when it gets going is short and sharp (reads deep).  Recovery times may be quick like the 1987 scenario which saw a sustained rally from the bottom, or maybe recovery will be slow and drawn out like the post 1929 market that took decades to really recover.

The big changes in our times are technology and consequently productivity.  How commodities will react will be telling, but I suspect that the commodity boom is only really mid way through, although of course some commodities may well correct while others stagnate in the midst of many booming.  Since the XAO has benefited from the resources boom, this is the Achilles heel.  If commodities such as LME metals fall, this could be disastrous for the whole resources sector.  But this is the moot question.

Add to that inflationary factors such as Crude Oil prices, US bond rates, and currency fluctuations, and this makes the whole exercise a nice tangle of interrelationships, hence the plethora of “Experts” commenting currently.

As for posting up my full working charts – this will just confuse people since I have pioneered a unique style of analysis (I believe so since I haven’t seen anything like I’m doing anywhere else), and a lot will look bizarre if you don’t understand how it all works.  Also, once the indexes trade into key time increments, then I will be able to better interpret what may be going on.  Currently the DAX is the clearest index I can see at the moment, and my projections for it and relevant chart is on the “International Index Trading” thread if anyone’s interested.

As for the XAO and the US markets, the fact that the bar on the 12th of June traded down into the increment for me suggested a bullish pattern, wheras if it screamed into a top here, then McLaren’s forecast may have proven correct.  I still think the cycle I’m using is effective, hence I’ll stick with it, but the 90 cycle he is using is still working in tandem to locate pivot points, so it is useful.  When the two line up, the effects have been evident.

Hope that helps!


Warm Regards


Magdoran


----------



## theasxgorilla (15 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> Seeing a moving average style of analysis prompts me to make an observation about why I think this type of approach at this juncture in the market is potentially flawed.  Moving averages in my opinion are a very rough tool at the best of times, and are fundamentally flawed because they are a lagging indicator.  Hence as wavepicker says quite rightly that you need to account for the lag in an effective way if you’re going to use them.




With regards to accounting for lag, you are probably right.  There could be another dimension added to this analysis that accounts for lag using rate-of-change or some other measure to quantify how strongly the index is pulling away from its moving average.  And perhaps a _better_ moving average could have been chosen, like an exponential.  And with regards to being "rough", again, yes, you are probably right.  But for those who are reading this and wondering if moving averages are a useless indicator and ought to be immediately ditched in exchange for something more sophisticated or refined, a balanced answer should include reference to those people who use something as "fundamentally flawed" as an average in their trading and continue to make profits.

To quote Ed Seykota's site (http://www.seykota.com):

_*"A trend is a general drift or tendency in a set of data.  All measurements of trend involve taking a current reading and a historical reading and comparing them.  If the current reading is higher than the historical reading, we have an up-trend.  If lower, we have a down-trend.  In the improbable event of an exact match, we have a sideways trend."*_

Using a moving average can be a simple, visual way of determining if you have a trend, how far that trend has moved over a period of time and how far away it is from a reference point.  Its simple and effective.  You could say my preference is to be "The Beatles" in my analysis, rather than say, Stevie Ray Vaughan or Tommy Emmanuel.  Or as Miles Davis would put it, "I always listen to what I can leave out,".  I'm keen to eliminate that which seems superfluous.  



Magdoran said:


> The chart shown here looks great if you believe markets are static, and will always have a uniform trend.  Unfortunately this is a mistake.  Sometimes markets will trend in a fairly consistent manner, and sometimes they don’t.




The use of the MAs on a market that has shown patterns in its trending for the last 4 years can be a form of adaptive analysis.  Think of it like a blue print for a trading system that has a set of paramaters determined from back testing on a large body of historical data.  If the market steps outside of the parameters of that blue print then it suggests we are in uncharted territory.  Time to find a system, or in my case, a new reference model.  Markets are always the same in that they're always changing.  We know this.



Magdoran said:


> This is why moving averages can get you in at the wrong time and out at the wrong time (McLaren covers this in telling detail in the “Foundations”).  They can’t differentiate between normal tends and blow off moves.  They just don’t understand different types of trend, period.  (RSI for instance can give misleading “overbought” signals in a bullish blow off and get you out or short at the wrong time).




When we discuss a good trading system that uses moving averages getting you in and out at the wrong time, we're probably refering to whip-sawing, right?? Its real, it exists, and its part of trading.  Moving averages can be used effectively in trend following systems that rely on high R multiple trades to offset the +/-1R trades that occur during whip-saws or false positives or whatever you want to call them.  For this reason systems such as this can often be "wrong" more than 50% of the time.  We should not confuse being right with being profitable.  They're two different needs.  Given enough time a trader will adopt a system which suits his/her needs and personality.

My analysis is backward looking.  And it will always lag the market, as I am using purely price as an indicator of price.  I don't pretend to be able to see beyond the last bar on the chart and I don't need to be "right".  Hunches are good enough.  What I can tell you is when price is behaving differently in this move than what it has done previously, the signficance of that is up to each of us to weigh.



Magdoran said:


> I agree that there should be a correction at some point, and probably a strong one retracing at least somewhere ranging from one quarter to three eighths (or more) of the whole 2002 bullish campaign onwards, but the question is when?  In a blow off move, it is very difficult to tell at this point, since the apparent pattern can be misleading.




This doesn't really tell us anything new.  I remember going to numerous market presentations around 2001/02 and being told by suited-up "experts" what to expect.  Single digit returns for the remainder of the decade was bandied around repeatedly.  Nobody saw this bull market coming, nobody saw the duration or strength that it has shown and nobody will see its end.  If you are going to forecast, forecast often...isn't that how the saying goes??


----------



## Wysiwyg (15 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Put your hand up if anyone sees a smarter bull market now.opcorn:


----------



## Lachlan6 (15 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thought I'd pull this one up. Pretty interesting as it shows that two corrections in 05 were proceeded by bearish MACD divergences. However the one in 06 and earlier this year were not. Notice the large bearish divergence in the index at the moment.


----------



## Magdoran (15 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> With regards to accounting for lag, you are probably right.  There could be another dimension added to this analysis that accounts for lag using rate-of-change or some other measure to quantify how strongly the index is pulling away from its moving average.  And perhaps a _better_ moving average could have been chosen, like an exponential.  And with regards to being "rough", again, yes, you are probably right.  But for those who are reading this and wondering if moving averages are a useless indicator and ought to be immediately ditched in exchange for something more sophisticated or refined, a balanced answer should include reference to those people who use something as "fundamentally flawed" as an average in their trading and continue to make profits.
> 
> To quote Ed Seykota's site (http://www.seykota.com):
> 
> ...



Hello TAG,

I knew when I made the comment that you’d probably respond – not detracting from your informative posts, but seeing MAs used in your analysis twigged a motivation to comment...

I think you are missing my point I have raised in many posts before:  In my view, moving averages actually obscure the chartist/analyst from seeing much of what is going on in the market.  As McLaren said, it’s trading “shadows against a wall”.

Looking backwards won’t alert you to patterns suggesting a probability of a change in trend.  If you do this, you won’t see the cliff, or the spring board.  A lot of course depends on the time frame you are trading/investing in.  Basic MAs can help for the long term (as tech has done with techtrader).

Anyway, my comments were about using MAs to predict where and when a potential crash/correction would be actually.  You were using the 200 day moving average as the basis for that analysis.  My response was that a blow off trend can fool a moving average system, even a long term one.  They aren’t a forecasting tool, and have in my view negative effects to chart analysis (as much as some rudimentary ones to try to keep you on the right side of the trend.  But they obscure counter trends, false breaks, exhaustions etc.  I’m sure you ‘d agree with this, wouldn’t you?

As for forecasts, actually, I have made a range of forecasts on this site, as you know – there are some that are current right now, so yes, I have said some things that are new if you were looking...  What I’m saying now is, yup there are patterns alerting us to the potential for a correction of some sort, the problem is when.  I’m saying, I can’t tell you when the correction is likely to happen right now, but what I can say is I don’t think it’s likely at least until the middle of July.  How the market trades into that point will let me make forecasts with much more certainty.

What you need to grasp is that the forecasting style hinges on key “choke” or “tipping” points where outcomes that are in the balance can have major effects into the future, and identifying them and utilising them.  It’s like one of those SciFi movies where they go back in time and stuff something up, and the future changes (you know the time line idea – Bradbury did an early version of this about shooting dinosaurs in the past, and one guy treads on an ancient moth, and changes the present as a result).

I look at it this way, the charts of the future are not yet written.  I do not believe in a deterministic universe, or a deterministic market.  But I am swayed by chaos models, and the idea of estimating probabilities, and deciphering market patterns.  I do believer that there is an inherent order to markets, and that if you look at the market the right way there are a host of clues that give you a significant edge that are unorthodox.  So, in my view, moving averages and oscillators are misused by the majority, and in many cases actually obscure the aspiring technical analyst from really seeing the market.

By the way, I do have some really long range forecasts, but I’m not going to post these on a public forum, especially when there are so many possibilities that can intervene in the interim, but some in their original form survive and work like a charm.... the majority though can be right in time or price, but often not both.  Hence I only post up shorter range forecasts which are easier to grasp, rather than a full campaign map... who’d read it anyway?


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## theasxgorilla (15 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> Looking backwards won’t alert you to patterns suggesting a probability of a change in trend.  If you do this, you won’t see the cliff, or the spring board.  A lot of course depends on the time frame you are trading/investing in.  Basic MAs can help for the long term (as tech has done with techtrader).




If you're prepared to trade with 15 minute data you can take what works with MAs on a weekly chart and make it work on any hourly chart.  Your trade opportunity will increase, as will the occurance of the patterns you describe.



Magdoran said:


> Anyway, my comments were about using MAs to predict where and when a potential crash/correction would be actually.  You were using the 200 day moving average as the basis for that analysis.  My response was that a blow off trend can fool a moving average system, even a long term one.  They aren’t a forecasting tool, and have in my view negative effects to chart analysis (as much as some rudimentary ones to try to keep you on the right side of the trend.  But they obscure counter trends, false breaks, exhaustions etc.  I’m sure you ‘d agree with this, wouldn’t you?




I agree, utterly.  Although I question how much we need to identify these patterns to be effective _traders_.  The answer is of course different for different traders.

NB. Technically I wasn't predicting, but working some rudimentary stats which said that of the 11 times the XAO has closed below its 40-day SMA during this bull run, 7 of those have resulted in continued _corrective_ price activity.  Its not sophisticated by any stretch, and if you spend a lot of time on the science of market geometry it probably seems crass.  But there are people out there who use the 200-day MA.  Try googling "200-day moving average" and compare the hits you get against other MA lengths.  Its my summation that irrespective of whether its a magic MA length or not, that there are many non-technical analysis types who use this MA as their sole technical thermostat if you like.  The XAO has NEVER closed below its 200-day MA during this bull run.  That is worth knowing, IMO, as the day it does it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.


----------



## rico01 (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don,t want to butt in on your  arguing but do think there is a slight chance the market is gettin a little ahead of itself . My data doesn,t go back far enough  to show where we are in comparison to the 87 correction,I'd like to see a chart going back to prior 87 if anyone can do it.
  I think this chart tells  astory though any comments?


----------



## rico01 (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rico01 said:


> I don,t want to butt in on your  arguing but do think there is a slight chance the market is gettin a little ahead of itself . My data doesn,t go back far enough  to show where we are in comparison to the 87 correction,I'd like to see a chart going back to prior 87 if anyone can do it.
> I think this chart tells  astory though any comments?




 sorry  having problems loading charts


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rico01 said:


> sorry  having problems loading charts




Here you go rico1, a monthly chart back to Jan 1980

Garpal


----------



## rico01 (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Here you go rico1, a monthly chart back to Jan 1980
> 
> Garpal




well thank you 
 what i was trying to point out is how far ahead we are  above the average trend  and if history were to repeat itself  we most likely are going to get  back to that average


----------



## IFocus (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Guys 

A couple of clichés come to mind

“a dog and his bone, a duck and his mogie” LOL no disrespect directed at anyone.

Tech what’s that saying “if you keep doing the same thing expecting a different result…….” 

Perhaps a different approach to the method of your interaction with Gann practitioners may result in another outcome.

Personally using charts makes sense to myself if I want to progress to a higher level of understanding. Progress in my own case is always exponentially faster when I remove my projection of self-worth from the discussion i.e. the need to be right. 

Mean while here is one of GET’s EW take on the weekly and daily for the XJO the weekly i find interesting a move back to the minor wave perhapes?


----------



## Sean K (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rico01 said:


> well thank you
> what i was trying to point out is how far ahead we are  above the average trend  and if history were to repeat itself  we most likely are going to get  back to that average



With the time scale I think you need a semi log chart to see the 'true' trajectory of the index. This will make it less parabolic. Sorry, haven't got one. Anyone? Or disagree?


----------



## rico01 (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rico01 said:


> well thank you
> what i was trying to point out is how far ahead we are  above the average trend  and if history were to repeat itself  we most likely are going to get  back to that average




Here is my chart finally


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> With the time scale I think you need a semi log chart to see the 'true' trajectory of the index. This will make it less parabolic. Sorry, haven't got one. Anyone? Or disagree?




Interesting comment. The recent increase in XAO does appear less dramatic on a semilog scale.

Enclosed is the semilog.

Garpal


----------



## IFocus (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Agree Kennas

Also current market valuations are more than realistic 87 was way out of whack current concern for me is China market PE 40 to 50 compare Australian PE 14.9 how the Chinese manage this will affect us


Here is the XAO monthly semi log

Focus


----------



## rico01 (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Interesting comment. The recent increase in XAO does appear less dramatic on a semilog scale.
> 
> Enclosed is the semilog.
> 
> Garpal




Can someone explain semi-log, I haven,t heard that term before.


----------



## IFocus (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A real basic way of explanation is compare the numbers of a 1% rise of the index today at  6000 and a rise of the index of 1% at 2000 points in 1987

Focus


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rico01 said:


> Can someone explain semi-log, I haven,t heard that term before.





Below is a definition from Metastock help page which explains it as well as I've seen. I was  never good at maths or calculus. Basically it "costs" as much in todays dollars to go from 6000 on xao to 12000 on xao as it did "cost" to go from 3000 to 6000 on xao. The relative move is the same. Thus in doubling your money you have travelled the same distance on the Y axis. Thats how I think it through


Semi-log Scale.  

  In a semi-log scaled chart, the distance between each point is exponential.  For example, the distance between 30 and 60 (a 30 point, 100% increase) is the same as the distance between 60 and 120 (a 60 point, but still 100% increase).  Semi-log scaling is used to compare relative price changes rather than physical point changes.


Garpal


----------



## rico01 (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Below is a definition from Metastock help page which explains it as well as I've seen. I was  never good at maths or calculus. Basically it "costs" as much in todays dollars to go from 6000 on xao to 12000 on xao as it did "cost" to go from 3000 to 6000 on xao. The relative move is the same. Thus in doubling your money you have travelled the same distance on the Y axis. Thats how I think it through
> 
> 
> Semi-log Scale.
> ...




thank you GG & IF
I have been looking at it  and now realise that on the right side of the chart th e value for 1000 / 2000 / 3000 and so on get closer together the higher they are taking out that parabolic thing you were talking about however we have got the 20th ann of 1987 coming up  and i,m sure there's someone [who reads and writes on this thread ] might have some thoughts of there  own to add you know history always repeats.


----------



## theasxgorilla (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> A real basic way of explanation is compare the numbers of a 1% rise of the index today at  6000 and a rise of the index of 1% at 2000 points in 1987
> 
> Focus




Apologies for ranting on topic.

Another way is to say it is that a doubling of the index from 1000 to 2000 is represented on the Y-Axis by the same 'length' of price as a doubling from 2000 to 4000 or 4000 to 8000.

On the attached chart you can see that during the greater up move which ran from '82 to '87 the market doubled more than two times.  This bull market, by comparison, has barely doubled once in over 4 years.  Its the duration (time) of this bull market that makes it significant.  That combined with the otherwise benign nature of any pullbacks.

You will see from the chart that the '82-'87 run was significantly interupted by a somewhat deep pullback around Jan-Jun '84. The absense of such a hiccup during this bull market means that its longer in duration than the the one from '84 to '87.  But the price moves have not been as aggressive.  It's that old time-price interplay which is the favoured space of the Gann analysts.

And it makes a lot of sense too.  I don't pretend to believe the world is as balanced as 1 unit of price for every 1 unit of time, because the real world is not...but the simple idea that *in this bull market price has travelled less in more time* should tell people that this bull market is less aggressive than the '82-'84-'87 move.  When price and time are more balanced then in the real world fundamental factors have a greater chance of keeping up eg. productivity gains which translate to earnings (the real reason many buy and sell shares).

To stir the pot further, as an avid follower of technology the time we live in today is teeming with technology driven productivity gains.  The limiting factor is the *time* to adapt and implement them into businesses and our daily lives (7 yrs since dotcom...long enough for us to learn how to say iPod).  As an example, think of all the people who still don't use a GPS and drive around and around and around wasting time.  The mass-adoption of this single tool alone will increase productivity out of sight.

I think there is more upside potential going forward than what people think.


----------



## doctorj (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This cat fight has gone on long enough.  I've moved a number of off topic posts to this thread.  Please continue that there.  This thread is for the analysis of the XAO only - not Zinc, ZFX, tea leaves or anything else.


----------



## theasxgorilla (17 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rico01 said:


> we have got the 20th ann of 1987 coming up  and i,m sure there's someone [who reads and writes on this thread ] might have some thoughts of there  own to add you know history always repeats.




I prefer the Mark Twain variant, "history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme".

Yes, this October ought to be an interesting time.  Or if enough clever people pre-empt it the peak may come a little earlier than the expected fact.  I wonder if this could be what is happening with this most recent peak, prior to what was expected to be a last ditch rush to amass super contributions before June 30 cut-off.


----------



## Magdoran (18 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



doctorj said:


> This cat fight has gone on long enough.  I've moved a number of off topic posts to this thread.  Please continue that there.  This thread is for the analysis of the XAO only - not Zinc, ZFX, tea leaves or anything else.



Thanks doctorj,


I love the title, “Handbags at 20 paces”, very funny.  I almost lost my lunch when I read the title… hahaha!  

Fully agree that it was off topic and concur with the way you have dealt with it.


Well done on the way you transferred it, an excellent handling of the content which retained the integrity of what transpired.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Kauri (18 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In todays West Australian.... might support the market for a little whiles yet???


*Fund ready to invest, despite market concerns
*

_17th June 2007, 11:00 WST
The $51 billion Future Fund will begin investing by the end of this financial year - only weeks away - regardless of concerns it may be entering at the top of the market.
The investment fund was established by the federal government in 2006 to meet Commonwealth government superannuation liabilities, estimated to hit $148 billion by 2020.
The fund is estimated to be worth more than $51 billion, with $42 billion in contributions from the government, and a little under $10 billion in Telstra shares.
The fund’s general manager Paul Costello said today the fund, which appointed Watson Wyatt head David Neal as its chief investment officer last week, was "on track" to achieve its plan of investing before the end of this financial year.
"We’ve always said that we will begin investing in this financial year, and of course that’s now only a couple of weeks away," Mr Costello told ABC TV.
"So that remains on track ... and that plan will be executed."
But asked if he was concerned the fund might be investing at the top of the market, which in the past few years has witnessed unprecedented gains, Mr Costello said, "I think that’s a concern for all investors".
"We’re absolutely clear that this is not a good time to be investing a large portfolio as a few years ago might have been, so we spend quite a bit of time thinking around that," he said.
"We know that there are many investors who have been punished for standing on the sidelines for too long waiting for corrections to happen which do take some time.
"Equally there have been investors who have been punished for jumping in to markets without being sensitive, so we are trying to run a middle road there."
Mr Costello was again forced to defend the appointment of US-based Northern Trust as the fund’s global custodian.
The appointment of an overseas bank raised concerns among unions and the federal opposition, not least because of its links to the collapse of US energy giant Enron.
"I think there was a great deal of comment made before people perhaps really understood what the role the custodian was, and appreciated that by definition a global custodian must be a global organisation, it must be a global bank,” he said.
"We remain absolutely convinced that this is the right call for us."
But the fact the Future Fund had become such a politically sensitive body would have no impact on the body’s independence, Mr Costello said.
"We value our independence,” he said.
"Government has been very clear with us - they believe the fund will only be successful if it feels free to make decisions that it believes are appropriate for the portfolio.
"The board is of the same view... We will continue to make the decisions that we think are best for the portfolio irrespective of comment that sometimes might flow."
Mr Costello said how the money would be spent would be decided by the government of the day - and was not an issue of concern for the fund.
Labor has promised, if it wins the upcoming election, to use $2.4 billion from the fund to help pay for a national high speed fibre-optic broadband network.
The policy has been condemned by the government as undermining the fund’s intent of meeting superannuation liabilities.
"Our job is to manage the contributions that are given, and government has been clear about what they expect back from that, so really these other issues are not ones that we spend a great deal of energy (on),” Mr Costello said.
AAP 
_


----------



## Kimosabi (18 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> In todays West Australian.... might support the market for a little whiles yet???
> 
> 
> *Fund ready to invest, despite market concerns*
> ...




I'm not sure this is a good thing or bad thing, but the CEO looks like he should be in the know.  I wonder if he is a neo-con...

William A. Osborn the CEO of Northern Trust, is also Director of Caterpillar Inc., Nicor Inc., Tribune Company and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

http://www.chicagofed.org/about_the_fed/board_of_directors_osborn_william.cfm


----------



## Kauri (18 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From "Inside Business" 2 years back...



PETER COSTELLO: I think that there's a lot of lessons that the Australian Government could learn from looking at the New Zealand experience. 
*Paul Costello runs the New Zealand Superannuation Fund*, which began investing 18 months ago. Similar to the Future Fund but much broader, it will help fund the country's universal pension for Kiwi citizens over the age of 65.

ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: Being a very big fish in a small pond, the NZ Fund has invested most of its money offshore. 
PAUL COSTELLO: Because of the size of the fund relative to the local market, we've had to keep our allocation to it quite modest. We allocate just over *7 per cent of our assets to the local equity market and around 10 per cent to the local bond
market. *


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kimosabi said:


> I'm not sure this is a good thing or bad thing, but the CEO looks like he should be in the know.  I wonder if he is a neo-con...
> 
> William A. Osborn the CEO of Northern Trust, is also Director of Caterpillar Inc., Nicor Inc., Tribune Company and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
> 
> http://www.chicagofed.org/about_the_fed/board_of_directors_osborn_william.cfm




Does he have a handbag or is he a fundamentalist ?

Garpal


----------



## hacheln_mice (20 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking at the vertical rally, we should be targeting 6500 by next Monday.  In terms of the broader market, it still appears to be a 'wait and see' game as to which way it'll break.


----------



## WaySolid (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Forgive me if this has been posted before. Where does the 40 odd billion government contribution come from for the future fund?.. 10 billion in TLS, ok, but the rest? Is that a future contribution or dollars sitting in a bank account somewhere?

The Chinese have a 1 trillion + war chest as well which could be extra gunpowder for the market boom, the big ASX resource companies must look very juicy in their eyes I guess, not sure how those sort of things would be judged from a foreign investment stand point, probably fair game I imagine.


----------



## Kauri (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A picture says it better than I can.....   ..


----------



## GreatPig (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some interesting pre-open figures showing in one of my watchlists right now...

Option expiry again.

GP


----------



## theasxgorilla (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

1.36% drop on the S&P500 last night, confirmed a lower high...not looking good.


----------



## GreatPig (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ah... this looks better 

(except for BHP of course)

GP


----------



## happytrader (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Some interesting pre-open figures showing in one of my watchlists right now...
> 
> Option expiry again.
> 
> GP




Hi GP

Not today. The June options expiry date is the 28th. 

Cheers
Happytrader


----------



## reece55 (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> A picture says it better than I can.....   ..




Yep, thats pretty much it Kauri. Same view I have had for quite a while, we have a definite broadening top formation and even through we had a record close, we actually didn't breach our all time intra day high....

Not a good sign at all..... But lets not get depressed, hopefully the short game will appear!

Cheers


----------



## GreatPig (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				happytrader said:
			
		

> The June options expiry date is the 28th.



Well maybe some warrants then.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## professor_frink (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Some interesting pre-open figures showing in one of my watchlists right now...
> 
> Option expiry again.
> 
> GP




SPI rollover is today.


----------



## DB008 (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

the past few trading days have had a stellar run.  l think that it will dip for sure with some profit taking today. l predict atleast a 40-60 point drop today easy. Then again, just my 2 cents


----------



## Sean K (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



DB008 said:


> the past few trading days have had a stellar run.  l think that it will dip for sure with some profit taking today. l predict atleast a 40-60 point drop today easy. Then again, just my 2 cents



Well, an easy way to predict it is to have a look at the futures Danny. Down 47, so in your guestimated range. Well done.  Doesn't mean it will happen of course. We sometimes have news released during the day that effects our market.


----------



## nizar (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Well, an easy way to predict it is to have a look at the futures Danny. Down 47, so in your guestimated range. Well done.




LOL thats probably what he did, but he made a range so it wouldnt be obvious


----------



## DB008 (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All good. l was just looking at how the US markets travelled last nite. 150 or so point drop on the dow last night. l'm only a very very beginner. But, l am finding that it's easier to read the indicies and commodities than stocks. Just my opinion.


----------



## hacheln_mice (21 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like the short term run to 6500 stalled and the short term trend might break.  

I've been looking for a broadening wedge, but Kauri's take on it looks good too.  Here's a shorter timeframe look.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (23 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A little bit bearish? Megaphone top forming on the weekly and hang man on the daily?
Edit - just saw Kauri's post - concur.


----------



## reece55 (23 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> A little bit bearish? Megaphone top forming on the weekly and hang man on the daily?




I am with you UF - we failed to make a new high and the SPI is down some 60+ points at present.......

Be prepared for a red couple of days IMO, 6240 now forms support, secondary support at 6100........ Time to start to be conservative and maintain tight stops........

Brian Shannon on Alpha Trends says it best IMO (www.alphatrends.blogspot.com), trading is a defense game - time to start using that defense.....

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (23 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> A little bit bearish? Megaphone top forming on the weekly and hang man on the daily?






> The expanding triangle, which is also known as a broadening top, usually consists of three peaks, each higher than the previous peak, and two valleys, the second lower than the first.




We've had 3 peaks each slighly higher (or was the second higher? - pretty similar), and two valleys, second lower. 

Uncle, what's the target from such a formation? The distance between the large end of the triangle to the downside? I get 6000? Matches support. What's the fib retractment there? Interesting.


----------



## tech/a (23 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Aget is giving a couple of counts.

The more aggressive is the First Chart with a wave 3 rather than a wave 5.




*I actually prefer THIS *to the second possible count as the wave 4 pattern seems to abrupt in its formation in the second chart below--ie To short relative to wave 1

This is the count for a completed wave 5 this leg--Note the short wave 4 and wave 1





So I'm confident now that unless 6170 is breached that there is further steam in the XJO this leg is nearing completion however if the low of 6170 is intact and a new high is made first target is 6610 then 6850.




Again from a pattern view I dont think this is completed yet. Although just to confuse the short term pattern "Could be complete" as a wave 5 of 5 at the arrow.(*From my own count *of this wave 5) and this is now a complex correcive move part of the wave 4 correction.

Im sure others could have variations to these counts.
Bottomline not over yet till 6170 breached,and not continuing until another higher high is in place.

From a pattern perspective and Ive been looking more closely at these since Moggie and Waves pointed out their importance.

*This being a terminating WAVE 3 makes the most sence.
Looking for a wave 4 corrective move before a wave 5 completion.*


----------



## Dutchy3 (23 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

With the Dow off 158 I'd doubt too many of us would expect the ASX to rally on Monday .... Indeed I've been watching momentum fall away now for a few weeks .... I can't see 6400 taken out before 6200 has another visit.

This being said 6200 will have to be an absolute rock .... else I see not 6400 but  back to 6000ish ...

Not overall bearish at this stage (LONG oilers my exposure of choice at the mo) still picking the right sector and stocks within will now be even a greater sought after skill


----------



## reece55 (23 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dutchy3 said:


> With the Dow off 158 I'd doubt too many of us would expect the ASX to rally on Monday .... Indeed I've been watching momentum fall away now for a few weeks .... I can't see 6400 taken out before 6200 has another visit.
> 
> This being said 6200 will have to be an absolute rock .... else I see not 6400 but  back to 6000ish ...
> 
> Not overall bearish at this stage (LONG oilers my exposure of choice at the mo) still picking the right sector and stocks within will now be even a greater sought after skill




Absolutely Dutchy, couldn't have said it better myself.....

No matter what your view, EW, Gann, etc, we are still in a bull market, even if we head back to 6000 IMO. I mean, we really haven't had any sideways action for so long, I favour a sidewards for a while before we get a break in a new trend, be that bullish or bearish. 

It will be a stock pickers environment, you just have to be on your toes and tighten the stops......... Trading on the assumption of a correction is a losers game - trade in the sectors that show strength on the long side and sectors that show weakness on the short side. At the moment, the XJM's and XEJ's are hot, the XHJ's and XFJ's are not.....
Cheers


----------



## Dutchy3 (23 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi R55

Hasn't it been amazing ... I had a look at the weekly XJO since 2003 and the run has been spectacular .... I agree with the overall bull market comments ... 

If Bond yields to click up towards the end of the year I can see the Financials stall and expect that we might then see the old demarcation between resources  and the balance of our market reappear ...

Really we see it now in daily news ... families in NSW and VIC scratching around and asking what boom ... here in the WA it's all quite mental.


----------



## reece55 (23 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dutchy3 said:


> Hi R55
> 
> Hasn't it been amazing ... I had a look at the weekly XJO since 2003 and the run has been spectacular .... I agree with the overall bull market comments ...
> 
> ...




Hi Dutchy....

Yep, obviously there are sectors in the market I think are just stupidly overvalued (i.e. most of the smaller miners that are not producers with a sniff of U!!), but overall what everyone has to remember is that these are trading conditions that come up one in every 2 decades or so. Instead of saying how expensive it is, you need to relish it and make your $$, because in my humble opinion, it's reasonably easy to do so at present. I have just had a ball in the last couple of weeks here on the ASX.

It has been an incredible transformation for our country, specifically WA, but now even here in SA we are really reaping the benefits. We can't keep up with the work that is available for newly listed mining entities, it's just incredible........ And realistically, it is well overdue. Specifically in the mining industry, we had major underinvestment, and now the balance is shifting the other way.....

Cheers


----------



## Dutchy3 (23 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ahhh ... I'm an avid navy fan and SA have been kicking goals ... what with the ASC and now the AWD I'd love to work in those industries ... I'm in Health and I can tell you just how hard it is to compete with the resource industry for my support staff positions ... 10 years in the resource industry prior to this so I know what the attraction can be ..


----------



## zuluwarrior08 (23 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



reece55 said:


> Absolutely Dutchy, couldn't have said it better myself.....
> 
> No matter what your view, EW, Gann, etc, we are still in a bull market, even if we head back to 6000 IMO. I mean, we really haven't had any sideways action for so long, I favour a sidewards for a while before we get a break in a new trend, be that bullish or bearish.
> 
> ...





Ill second those thoughts.
Fundamentals havent changed much, and I dont think any of our listed financials had too much to do with the hedge fund woes in the US, That said in the little time Ive been learning, or market seems to be like a little puppydog following the DOW. Here's a question, how much do you think an interest rate rise in the US would have on us over here?

I think the CPI figures released soon will have a huge impact as volatility seems to have increased over the last 3-4 months, and investors are reacting to news/events more violently than last year. do you agree?


----------



## nizar (24 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Aget is giving a couple of counts.
> 
> The more aggressive is the First Chart with a wave 3 rather than a wave 5.
> 
> ...




6850?
I like


----------



## hacheln_mice (24 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The past week saw us very strongly, and as long as we don't retrace too much of it, we should have a launch pad set for a possible blowoff style move.  I suspect the next move up might be on fumes though because the market internals are just so horrible (see Advance-Decline for all ords-blue line).  Notice how the XAO is flirting with all time highs yet the A-D is still bumming around near the bottom of its range...

Advance-Decline Chart courtesy of http://sttc.net.au/~stever/ad_aord.html.

That said, I'd like to reiterate my view that I still think the long term bull still has a lot of puff left.  It's just that I'm not as optimistic about the medium term.


----------



## theasxgorilla (24 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



hacheln_mice said:


> The past week saw us very strongly, and as long as we don't retrace too much of it, we should have a launch pad set for a possible blowoff style move.  I suspect the next move up might be on fumes though because the market internals are just so horrible (see Advance-Decline for all ords-blue line).  Notice how the XAO is flirting with all time highs yet the A-D is still bumming around near the bottom of its range...




Cool chart Hacheln.  As you say, it makes this move out of the June 13 low look rather suspect.  I get the impression from looking at some of the Sector and individual ASX20 constituent share charts that money has been pouring into Energy (Oil, Gas???) and Materials (RIO, BHP and a host of mid-small caps) and WES creating a divergence of sorts with the banks, TLS, WOW etc. which are all down well off their highs.

I agree that those that have broken out and are racing right now (RIO, BHP, WES, WPL) will probably, eventually pull back into line with broader market weakness and when they do we can expect the XAO to reflect this.  What the AD line isn't showing is the market cap of the issues being compared and hence the raw money flow into the big issues that have had massive moves recently like RIO, BHP, WES and WPL.  Money flowing out of the many into the few?


----------



## Uncle Festivus (25 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Cool chart Hacheln.  As you say, it makes this move out of the June 13 low look rather suspect.  I get the impression from looking at some of the Sector and individual ASX20 constituent share charts that money has been pouring into Energy (Oil, Gas???) and Materials (RIO, BHP and a host of mid-small caps) and WES creating a divergence of sorts with the banks, TLS, WOW etc. which are all down well off their highs.
> 
> I agree that those that have broken out and are racing right now (RIO, BHP, WES, WPL) will probably, eventually pull back into line with broader market weakness and when they do we can expect the XAO to reflect this.  What the AD line isn't showing is the market cap of the issues being compared and hence the raw money flow into the big issues that have had massive moves recently like RIO, BHP, WES and WPL.  Money flowing out of the many into the few?





I sense something like this happening too. I have been looking at some data at http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/Bulletin/ , specifically the F07 report.
I have struggled to create some charts with Open Office from this data (maybe someone with Excel can do a better job) but I think the main thrust of the data is that there has been an allocation of funds to one sector, in this case Banks, & an under allocation to others eg resources.

The charts date from Dec 1979. What is also apparent is that maybe there is still a lot more scope for relative adjustment between the sectors ie a pullback in the banks and continued strength in resources, with each balancing the other so a flat XAO? Banks & resources seem to take turns in taking the market up or down, with increased volatility and daily range.

Another observation is the parabolic nature of total market cap & the banking indices. Is this in itself sustainable at this rate? Does it even mean anything?


----------



## hacheln_mice (27 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Margin call anyone?
------------------------
Despite the ugliness of the fall, we're still in a trading range.


----------



## CanOz (27 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL! Thank god all i lost was my own money...I just opened up a short on the mini Aust 200 to hedge tomorrows losses.....a sure way to get the market to go the other way!

Cheers,


----------



## theasxgorilla (27 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Significant support at 6200/6210 level...although neither the XAO or S&P500 have broken their previous major low, it don't look good 

The range of today's down bar was pretty aggressive, combined with a close right down on the low.  All eyes on the US tonight...although it hasn't broken the lows of 7th/8th of June, 4 of the last 5 bars have been very weak.


----------



## Awesomandy (27 June 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ok.. I don't have access to the technical data at the moment, so I'll just have to go with my gut feeling...

With the .HSI down only 98 points, and the .N225 down 217 points, I'm not worried at all at this stage. I don't think the index will crash tomorrow, as I don't seem to be able to find any news that would trigger such an action (although I can be wrong). I would say that some bargain hunters might start hanging around their brokers tomorrow morning, so the market may actually regain some of today's losses. 

And, as for margin calls... I'll start worrying about it when it drops another 25%. 
(But then, if the market drops so much, a margin call probably won't be the first thing on my mind).


----------



## Dutchy3 (4 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dojo day today cover LONG. Not a signal to go short at this stage yet surely this is the oomph run out of our little corner of the world, and with interest rates remaining on hold ....


----------



## CanOz (4 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hmmm, yeah not much of a day really was it? Telecomm and materials were the place to be, but energy got trashed despite firming support in oil.

The DOW is looking bullish now, maybe theres just no liquidity coming into the market yet this F'Year?

Cheers,


----------



## gfresh (4 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm fairly new to the whole technical analysis thing.. however looks like convergence forming. Tomorrow should be another fairly neutral day like today for the XAO I have a feeling.

DJO move into strong positive territory after the traders return relaxed after their Independence day tomorrow? have had some time to digest getting over the subprime jitters, and some positive news earlier in the week. Should follow through to a nice rise here on Friday?

Will be good to break 6400, but strong resistance there so far.. Chief CBA economist Craig James predicts a 6600 XAO by end of 2007 year, and more usual growth next 12 months.

Couple of quotes:



> With the Australian and global economies in good shape and valuations still favourable, we expect the sharemarket’s bull run to continue over 2007/08. But returns are expected to be more “normal” at around 15 per cent, a step down from the experience of the past four years.




and



> We retain a “soft” target for the Australian sharemarket of *6,600* by the end of 2007. While the target appears easily achievable, the concern is that total returns on shares are continuing to grow well above longer-term averages,
> pointing to the risk of a correction. A target of 6,600 implies total returns on shares near 20 per cent and an unprecedented fifth consecutive year of above-normal returns.* The All Ordinaries and ASX 200 indexes are expected to reach 7,000 points by June 2008.*


----------



## hacheln_mice (5 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Since the last big drop, there was no lower low in this broadening formation, as such my opinion of the market is now less bearish...of course, if we don't make a higher high, then we could be in for a symmetrical triangle formation.


----------



## GreatPig (5 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What bothers me is the dropping off of both RSI and MACD while the prices essentially move sideways, and the increasing volatility. Both bearish signs IMO.

Having said that though, there does seem to be reasonable support around 6200.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## gfresh (5 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Further to my graph yesterday, nice blue candle today.. thought things would be neutral with the DOJ closed last night, but guess I was wrong. Possible upwards breakout.. Very close to 6400.. will be very telling next few days.. 

3 failed breaks past 6400 would be a very bad sign IMO


----------



## Awesomandy (5 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> 3 failed breaks past 6400 would be a very bad sign IMO




I'm still a newbie, but I wonder if patterns such as the triple top would apply to an index as well? 

Using the above chart, it seems to show that buying interest is drying up, with a few days of trading in a very narrow range (except for today), with volume decreasing each day. (hopefully, I'm not speaking complete rubbish)


----------



## theasxgorilla (5 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> I'm still a newbie, but I wonder if patterns such as the triple top would apply to an index as well?




Certainly...however many a flat-topped ascending, 3 or 5 wave, triangle pattern was a triple-top before it became a breakout...connotations intended with the WorldCom example too!


----------



## hacheln_mice (8 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Maybe the consolidation we had was a stealth correction.  After some thinking, I'm putting my bull horns back on.  I think this next up move might actually break the 6400 level...lets hope so.


----------



## CanOz (8 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You could be right HM. Some bullish divergence happening. One thing is for sure, Prof and Edwood, Trade It and the other index traders will be watching what happens when that resistance is touched!

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto< (8 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> You could be right HM. Some bullish divergence happening. One thing is for sure, Prof and Edwood, Trade It and the other index traders will be watching what happens when that resistance is touched!
> 
> Cheers,




Hi Can I am all ready long in the xjo, after a saw some confrimation on this latest push to 6400.

Keeping it small until i see it break 6400 as last rise turned rather quick off the top.

be a great place to add if it can break 6400.

watching with interest.


----------



## CanOz (8 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Hi Can I am all ready long in the xjo, after a saw some confrimation on this latest push to 6400.
> 
> Keeping it small until i see it break 6400 as last rise turned rather quick off the top.
> 
> ...




Figured you would be TI. What you make of that bullish divergence?

Cheers,


----------



## hacheln_mice (9 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Personally, I don't see that as positive divergence because that second drop did not form a lower low.


----------



## reece55 (9 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Right, well I have posted a copy of the XJO, not XAO here, but the point is the same. There is still bearish divergence on our MACD and we are at the edge of the defined trend range.... So the billion dollar question is where to from here. Could be a triple top, but we would need to break down through 6180 for that to occur. Then again, we could just be exiting from a 2.5 month period of accumulation, confirmation here would be a break of 6410 and we are very close....

I'm not a big one on making market calls, but considering the worldwide index view, the probabilities would have to lean towards another bullish move up....... Any views here, Tradeit, I know you are sitting on the sidelines waiting for confirmation......

Cheers


----------



## CanOz (9 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



hacheln_mice said:


> Personally, I don't see that as positive divergence because that second drop did not form a lower low.




Hmmm, looked it up from John L. Person's - Technical Trading Tactics, page 118, refers to a similar situation as Bullish Convergence, price makes a double bottom, Stoc makes a higher low....actually i incorrectly referred to it as Divergence. I could be interpreting this wrong HM. By all means set me straight, i'm no expert on TA thats for sure, and curious to know.

In anycase...it was bullish for today!

Cheers,


----------



## theasxgorilla (9 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As the XJO is an aggregated constituent instrument its probably not worth getting pedantic about 1 or 2 points here and there, so it's plain to see that todays move took us to that significant resistance level of 6400.  We've been above it ever so slightly, but never convincingly.  Breakout, sideways or turned around...tomorrow's price action could be any of these.

Asia was up today, Europe IS up, Americas still yet to come.


----------



## reece55 (9 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> As the XJO is an aggregated constituent instrument its probably not worth getting pedantic about 1 or 2 points here and there, so it's plain to see that todays move took us to that significant resistance level of 6400.  We've been above it ever so slightly, but never convincingly.  Breakout, sideways or turned around...tomorrow's price action could be any of these.
> 
> Asia was up today, Europe IS up, Americas still yet to come.




Cheers ASX, agreed that one shouldn't get too pedantic about the precise price targets, don't be a dick for a tick!!!!

Let's hope it's a breakout tomorrow moving us out of the trading range were in............ BHP is way way way up however, so not much room to move at the moment.....

Cheers


----------



## CanOz (9 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



reece55 said:


> BHP is way way way up however, so not much room to move at the moment.....
> 
> Cheers




Your not wrong, and as a result so is the XMJ, parabolic.

Cheers,


----------



## theasxgorilla (9 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



reece55 said:


> Let's hope it's a breakout tomorrow moving us out of the trading range were in............




I suspect the financials may be the key...if they reverse/breakout then they'll stop acting as a anchor for the index which is being led by the materials (as canaus pointed out) and energy to a lesser degree.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (9 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Guys never say a stock or market does not have room to move, A market can do anything up or down!

make your plays off the evidence being presented not of assumption based on personal feelings. That's the way I approach it.

tonight being critical, maybe maybe not if it does fall tonight why will the flood gates open?

I have made a preemptive play, added another long to the xjo as the charts in on the dow and xjo for now say yes higher prices can expected while it sits on its current short term trend line. DOW lagging on the chart compared to the xao and xjo. As we are looking to test mayor resistance dow still to meet it. on all thee charts negative 45 degree harmony has been broken. with only major resistance to be beaten. Also note volume drops off in a diagonal descending fashion on the dow and xao that is text book volume behavior in a ascending triangle continuation pattern.( I have the text books to prove it!)

Can, 

I am seeing good things here right now in our market and on the dow. This is a valid short term trend with a good angle just above 45 degrees very bullish.

will it hit new highs or retreat back to its support is up to the market to decide but either way i am ready for whatever move comes.

green arrows are my buy points, tight stop on the second entry.

sorry for all the pfd's have to get a new image writer for bourse.

good trading.


----------



## CanOz (9 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks TI....truely interesting times, thats one of the things i love about this interest, anything can happen, each moment in the market is unique, never will there be an absence of an opportunity to learn something new...

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto< (9 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Thanks TI....truely interesting times, thats one of the things i love about this interest, anything can happen, each moment in the market is unique, never will there be an absence of an opportunity to learn something new...
> 
> Cheers,




I agree with you 100%

Wall st up right now...........


----------



## Uncle Festivus (10 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

One thing that troubles me for the oz market is the influence of just a few stocks eg BHP & ZFX masking a weak underlying market. Take out these 2 and a handfull of others & we have a pretty ordinary market - hardly inspiring. 
The banks, apart form CBA, have failed to keep the pace too.

While it still has room to move, BHP's chart is parabolic on the monthly and getting close to the top of brokers near term price targets, some breathing space needed perhaps.
Any serious profit taking with these 2 and the indexs will come off a bit I think.


----------



## gfresh (10 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

.. or if you took out the growth in resource stocks altogether 

Already a few comments out of the US about 'sitting on the sidelines', and 'fully valued' may not lead to much further growth there - which will probably hold us back as well. 

Couple of possibly telling comments, taken from today's US market wrap:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/09/markets/markets_0530/index.htm?postversion=2007070917



> During the regular session the near-highs for stocks, coupled with earnings anxiety, kept many investors on the sidelines.
> 
> "We took some money off the table," said Brian Gendreau, a strategist at ING Investment Management in New York City. "[The market] is pretty close to being fairly valued."




and..



> Last week the Dow rose an impressive 1.5 percent, while the S&P 500 muscled its way to a 1.8 percent gain.
> 
> "Just common sense alone tells you that's too much," said Hugh Johnson, chairman of the asset management company Johnson Illington Advisors. "I don't care what the news is, we take a breather."
> 
> ...


----------



## nizar (10 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just failed at 6400ish again the XAO.
That cant be good.

Some significant resistance there now


----------



## hacheln_mice (10 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As long as we don't break the last low at 6216, she'll be fine.  But now I'm putting my trading range cap back on .
-----------------------------
Here's an interesting chart comparing the relative strength of XAO with XSO (small ordinaries).  Notice how sustainable market rallies occur when XSO is stronger and corrections ensue when new highs in the market are coupled with relative weakness of XSO v XAO.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (10 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Evening all,

Well plan A has changed and I have now moved to plan B.

We failed with a positive drive to beat 6400 on a third time XJO. Wall St futures are down with a possible negative influence coming into todays trading. I was stopped on my add to the xjo and also closed my other xjo contract after seeing the days action. also closed my ASX share position to lighten my exposure 

Now waiting to see if this short term trend line stands up to this new test. But there has still been some fun trades made off the bottom to the top in the last couple weeks.

This side ways market has just got more confirmation.

Good trading


----------



## Awesomandy (11 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The SPI Futures is down 63 points last time I checked, so that's a little worrying for those holding long in the index (or holding long in most of the bigger stocks, for that matter). I guess we'll really have to very carefully look at how low it drops this time to say where the index is heading in the near future.


----------



## gfresh (11 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am not sure how much indication we can truly gather from the SPI at the moment.. as just the other day it was +20-30 points. Now it's down, may be equally go up when today's down goes back up again?


----------



## professor_frink (11 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> I am not sure how much indication we can truly gather from the SPI at the moment.. as just the other day it was +20-30 points. Now it's down, may be equally go up when today's down goes back up again?




what are you saying here gfresh? I don't quite understand.


----------



## gfresh (11 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

what I was getting at is that any movement down may be cancelled out quickly, as per recent movements.. but I am not an expert on the SPI


----------



## professor_frink (11 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> what I was getting at is that any movement down may be cancelled out quickly, as per recent movements.. but I am not an expert on the SPI




oh ok then. What the overnight session in the SPI will tell you is roughly where the day session will open. I say roughly, as there can sometimes be small gaps on the day session open. Once the cash market is open- the SPI and XJO move in tandem.


----------



## CanOz (11 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> what I was getting at is that any movement down may be cancelled out quickly, as per recent movements.. but I am not an expert on the SPI




Pssssssst, Gfresh, wrong chart.

Cheers,


----------



## nizar (15 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

With oil up and the DOW up on friday, I think XAO is looking good for a close at or above 6,450 and a break into blue skies.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (15 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> With oil up and the DOW up on friday, I think XAO is looking good for a close at or above 6,450 and a break into blue skies.




I would like to see that Nizar I closed my xjo longs on friday afternoon at our latest fail to break and close over 6400 now not making any new long plays until we close above it on xjo at a new hight to confirm the break out.


----------



## theasxgorilla (15 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Check out http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com if you want an indication of what happened to our market on Friday, the SPI overnight and the US markets.  I think he makes a good case that supports Nizars assessment that a breakout is on the cards Monday morning.

ASX.G


----------



## wavepicker (15 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Check out http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com if you want an indication of what happened to our market on Friday, the SPI overnight and the US markets.  I think he makes a good case that supports Nizars assessment that a breakout is on the cards Monday morning.
> 
> ASX.G





Not sure about the significance of this breakout just yet, but after analysing the pattern of the trend, there is descent probability this breakout will probably be a dud, at least in the near term. Have time cycles for some type of top(short or long term not sure just yet) for mid July. Have another date of August 22nd but not sure of the significance of this (ie a higher high or lower high just yet).

The way I am playing it, this breakout will stall early next week and prices will probably move back down to approximately 6200 before doing anything else. So I am seting up for a short term position, short position either Monday evening or Tuesday, and will assess again thereafter.

Cheers


----------



## CanOz (15 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As GP pointed out, the banks are showing divergence. Heres the XFJ.


----------



## hacheln_mice (15 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Not sure about the significance of this breakout just yet, but after analysing the pattern of the trend, there is descent probability this breakout will probably be a dud, at least in the near term.




I'd have to agree with that.

In regards to the new high in the US, have a read of this.

We'll probably be stuck in this trading range for a while unless the likes of NAB, ANZ and WBC get off the a$$e$ and start rising.


----------



## ozambersand (15 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I second your wish about the banks getting off their derrieres. 

Being only new to all this, I am still trying to get a picture of what is happening and looking at what has happened in the past to try to understand today's market a bit better (and why my bank shares are down!)

Just for fun  I downloaded the three year figures for the XAO and the XFJ, then adjusted the figures of the XAO by deducting the difference at the starting point from each figure so that the two lines matched up at the start. This shows the way the two indices have moved relative to each other over the last three years. 
This is what it looks like and underneath is one with the XMJ added in and the same manipulation done (ie adjusting figures to give them the same starting point and then adjusting each figure with the same amount).
In the actual scheme of things it's probably not too startling. However, having them superimposed really shows the input onto the XAO the resources boom has made.
It's the only thing that is keeping the XAO in positive territory and really demonstrates Uncle Festivus's comments above.
I suppose if there is only a finite money to be invested, they have to take it out of somewhere to put it into resources and the financials are obviously the ones that are suffering because of it.


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ozambersand said:


> I second your wish about the banks getting off their derrieres.
> 
> Being only new to all this, I am still trying to get a picture of what is happening and looking at what has happened in the past to try to understand today's market a bit better (and why my bank shares are down!)
> 
> ...




Ozambersand

Just because XMJ is at 14000 that does not mean it is 'worth' more than the XFJ at 7500.

Is the y-axis of your charts a point change or percentage comparison? If it is points moved I'm not sure that will make a lot of sense as far as showing anything. As the materials index is at 14000 and the Financials at 7000 but the financials are twice the market capitalization. That is why the XFJ is so important to the movement of the XJO/XAO being a market cap weighted index.

Since three years ago the XMJ has gone from 7000 to 14000 about 100% gain, while the XFJ has gone from 4500 to 7500 about 66% gain, but since the market cap of XFJ is twice that of XMJ it has had a far greater effect on the market indices.


----------



## ozambersand (15 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks for comments. I take on board your points. I still have a lot to learn about indices and the figures they quote. 
What I am trying to show is how the market capitalisation of the two have varied over time and how their percentage of the XAO total market capitalisation has changed.
I understand now that the fact that the market capitalisation of the financials is so much more than the resources will mean that a 10% growth in financials looks less than a 30% growth in resources as the starting figures are so different, when in fact it could be the same amount of capital.
Is there any way we can show this?
Ideally it would be good to look at it with the areas underneath coloured so that you could see the change in the contribution to the total market capitalisation over time for the different sectors.
This time I have done the left axis as percentage growth from the start point from each index on the same day. Is this any better? I created the charts by downloading the index figures from Commsec. If there are places where you can see the variance in actual total market capitalisation for the sectors over time I would be interested in seeing those.
It wasn't meant to be too serious, just trying to illustrate the fact that the only reason the XAO is fairly steady while the XFJ's has been going down is because of the dramatic rise in the resources index.


----------



## wavepicker (15 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



hacheln_mice said:


> I'd have to agree with that.
> 
> In regards to the new high in the US, have a read of this.
> 
> We'll probably be stuck in this trading range for a while unless the likes of NAB, ANZ and WBC get off the a$$e$ and start rising.




Thanks halcheln, very interesting and unique analysis there, will be interesting to see what happens. Have attached my take/intepreatation of the current pattern of the trend in the DJI

Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto< (16 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wavepicker

I think your analysis is right on the money. Thanks for posting your chart great stuff.

There are problems with the magic number of 6400 on the xjo and for the highs set on the all ords as well.

Whether on not the dow rises or falls does not as you have all seen off the last 4 days tell us that we will follow into blue sky's. If you want a example see the charts of both indexes this time last year the dow broke out in july we banded till September.

I am also with wavepicker now thinking we will stay in this band. We have had lots of good reasons to bust out. The buyer confidence at the current time just aint there.

So back to the side lines for me right now on my xjo trades.


----------



## nizar (16 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Wavepicker
> 
> I think your analysis is right on the money. Thanks for posting your chart great stuff.
> 
> ...




Agree, theres definately bearish sentiment in the local markets.
Significant resistance at the 6400 level now, looks like we will range trade for a while.


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Agree, theres definately bearish sentiment in the local markets.
> Significant resistance at the 6400 level now, looks like we will range trade for a while.




I would think the more bearish sentiment the greater chance we will have of breaking out on a short cover rally or sucking underinvested traders into the market. It seems that everyone is thinking the same thing i.e. range bound. Is there no one out there that is Bullish after a two month consolidation?


----------



## wavepicker (17 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Wavepicker
> 
> I think your analysis is right on the money. Thanks for posting your chart great stuff.
> 
> ...




Not sure TI,

Lets. see what comes of it, we might need a few more minor subdivisions to finish off first. Have not taken trade yet will decide tonight, the market has put in one minor push today to finish the pattern but at the end of the day we are still talking probabilities when assessing any pattern so will monitor and if  all looks good will take it. If it works out, should be good for a few days at least though

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker (17 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just went short TI,

with stop just above last nights swing high and trade triggered after market fell away at the 75% of the range of the 1st swing down from the high(lower high). Will add to position slowly if trade continues to go in my favour.

Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla (17 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> I would think the more bearish sentiment the greater chance we will have of breaking out on a short cover rally or sucking underinvested traders into the market. It seems that everyone is thinking the same thing i.e. range bound. Is there no one out there that is Bullish after a two month consolidation?




I'll step out and say I am bullish, still.  It's the _goldilocks_ economy in the developed world and party time in emerging markets don't you know???

I still look to October this year, as 20 yr anniversity of Black Monday and 10 yr anniversary for Asian crisis, for any actual fireworks.  This sideways move is just time chatching up with what price has done since the beginning of the year.  The US has already broken out 2 days ago and support is holding steady on the S&P500 at the 1550 level.  XAO is still coiling for some reason...whatever the reasons I don't see them as terminal.  Residual shell-shock from RIO perhaps?


----------



## Edwood (17 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

near term we could see a swing lower to fill the gap but overall given the partial decline printed, breakout above and o/seas action you'd have to think we are going higher - unless its a bull-trap.  so I'm giving the trend the benefit of the doubt & treating this 2month-odd consolidation as a continuation pattern


----------



## Edwood (17 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi wavepicker feel free to stick any o/seas stuff on the international index thread.


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Edwood that gap has well and truly been filled today on the SPI if not yet on the cash. What’s the charting software you use? I never get those gaps mine starts the day where it finished the day before.


----------



## Edwood (17 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Trembling Hand - yes I guess if you are taking last nights close as todays open you won't get these gaps.  to be fair its a bigcharts chart that one so may not be 100% on the money, was away from my system at the time was just to show the move really.

ASX200 (which I'm using as a surrogate for XAO here - not the same thing but good enough for what I'm doing) is getting close to it now.  my point was that once the gap is filled I am looking for higher, imo, but at the moment the gap still exists for the method I use


----------



## Edwood (18 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

gap filled seems to have found support all looks a bit corrective (just using the same chart TH to show the fill)


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> gap filled seems to have found support all looks a bit corrective (just using the same chart TH to show the fill)




No prob Edwood. Was just interested because the opening auction makes gaps not that common in our market.

 I think its getting pegged to 6350 for options expiry tomorrow.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The XJO that is


----------



## professor_frink (18 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> No prob Edwood. Was just interested because the opening auction makes gaps not that common in our market.
> 
> I think its getting pegged to 6350 for options expiry tomorrow.




Interesting thoughts Trembling Hand, hadn't even thought of options expiry.

It will be interesting to see if it can be pegged to that level tomorrow- that selloff in the U.S this morning didn't look too pretty, and has barely stopped all day. It looks like we might see 6200 again fairly soon.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That XFJ chart is going to be looking pretty good by the end of trade today. It has just gone green. Just about completed a change of trend. I have been banging on about that for weeks and if so I reckon new highs aren’t that far away. Has made a higher Low 5 days ago and now showing relative strength to the rest of the market. Being the largest cap sector in the market it’s important.


----------



## professor_frink (18 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> That XFJ chart is going to be looking pretty good by the end of trade today. It has just gone green. Just about completed a change of trend. I have been banging on about that for weeks and if so I reckon new highs aren’t that far away. Has made a higher Low 5 days ago and now showing relative strength to the rest of the market. Being the largest cap sector in the market it’s important.




maybe. I'm still not convinced at this stage. As much as the financials could push the index up, I can't see them doing that if the U.S tanks. For me, it's a case of whether the action on the ES night session was the real thing or not. It's pretty rare to see that kind of movement at that hour, so my first thought is that it very well could be. We'll know for sure in a few hours


----------



## >Apocalypto< (18 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Based on the current sentiment in the market and now that we are really in this band, any negitive influence on the street could see us return to support and retest it.

So some more choppy times to come I think. But looking for a bounce off the bottom to play a xjo Long!


----------



## gfresh (18 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Will be an interesting night.. some negative sentiment for Bernanke's speech already seems to be built into our market. 

To be honest, I think a fall of the XAO below the resistance of 6200 would actually be a good thing to sort things out now, rather than later.. this sideways wave action really isn't doing much either way.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (18 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> Will be an interesting night.. some negative sentiment for Bernanke's speech already seems to be built into our market.
> 
> To be honest, I think a fall of the XAO below the resistance of 6200 would actually be a good thing to sort things out now, rather than later.. this sideways wave action really isn't doing much either way.




gfresh,

I would like to see this continuation pattern hold, a drop though support would suggest further down side and more unstable times. I don't agree, it wouldn't be a good thing. The side ways action is doing some thing, its a consolidation period that adds more punch to the break out the longer its stays in the range.

I have posted a chart of this time last year as you can see we were in a range that lasted a couple of months then broke out. funny to say also that the dow also broke out before we did like last year and it broke out in july as well just like this year lol and inflation was the main worry! oh and who said history does not repeat! this year its combined with sub prime.

Some differnces from this range to last year, there is more over head resistence this time to last time. Last year was oppersite more base touches and only two over head. Last may was a real correction into the range this year we have not had a true sell off into this range. Just some observations.

Good trading.

See chart.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (18 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> gfresh,
> 
> I would like to see this continuation pattern hold, a drop though support would suggest further down side and more unstable times. I don't agree, it wouldn't be a good thing. The side ways action is doing some thing, its a consolidation period that adds more punch to the break out the longer its stays in the range.
> 
> ...




correction dow started trend in july broke range in august. 

cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Trade it 
Yes I agree we have not had a down side break to a consolidation in over 3 or more years. If it broke that would be worry.


----------



## gfresh (18 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I agree it could go either way..  and it's very similar to last year. 

The only reason I say 'now rather than later' is that the catalysts for such a move, such as high oil prices, high dollar (hurting exporters, while yes commodities also going up, reducing the effect a little), worries over in the US over housing, and Chinese starting to get quite worried about over-inflation, are more present now. 

If they were passed over, then surely that would give greater reason for a larger correction within the next 12 months which would be worse news, because the problems are still underlying.. A break under 6200 in the XAO would may still be less than 5%, and give room for further rises this year. For it to get truly nasty there would have to be a lot of continuing (very) negative news over subsequent days/weeks to cause it to form a downward trend. No local news to suggest that at the moment.

Also a constantly oscillating index may not encourage further investment, and wealth into the stock market to drive things further when some people already have doubts forming. While you can view the current moves as consolidation (positive), you can also see it equally as uncertainty (negative). Looks more like the later to me, I would have thought consolidation would be a lot flatter (e.g. mid-July 06 as you've shown). 

This article here suggests such a correction is both overdue and probably welcome: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,22028586-5001942,00.html


----------



## gfresh (18 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was just going to add on the graph of our ASX200 vs their S&P500 that as you can see our ASX200 is still rocketing along at some 25% up on last year. 

We are still ahead of the US, but if they go down any significant extent, we're going down to follow.


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> I agree it could go either way..  and it's very similar to last year.
> 
> Also a constantly oscillating index may not encourage further investment, and wealth into the stock market to drive things further when some people already have doubts forming. While you can view the current moves as consolidation (positive), you can also see it equally as uncertainty (negative). Looks more like the later to me, I would have thought consolidation would be a lot flatter (e.g. mid-July 06 as you've shown).
> 
> This article here suggests such a correction is both overdue and probably welcome: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,22028586-5001942,00.html




I say good luck taking trading advice from a newspaper. That is the oldest bull market story for the last 200 years. " We need a 10% correction"

I have been saying that I think negative sentiment is good for new rises it leaves a lot of people to still come into the market. The last thing you want as a Bull is everyone looking for new highs. On my blog this morning I posted this chart. Has no one noticed the two lower lows and ever so slight change in the falls recently?


----------



## CanOz (19 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Agree with you TH...not much time to add much here except that several sectors too were at support, where they had bounced before...some closes off the lows yesterday too suggesting buyrs coming back. It is realistic to expect a range for some time yet.

Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus (19 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just taking the timescale out a bit to weekly, there seems to be a number of things showing up which have been played out today in a big way. 
The first is the banks underperformance relative to the rest of the market & the catch up today. The second being BHP's parabolic top formation and 'correction' (and tendancy to buy assets at the top of the cycle & pay too much al la RIO?).
Each one without the other & we get the sideways action of the last few months. What we need is a synchronised effort with the 2 sectors firing together for a sustained period, if only for the blow-off top. 
Until then, & taking our que from the US, not much to indicate a breakout style resumption of the bull I'm afraid. MACD rolling over?
Also, something about tax free super redemptions now having an effect?


----------



## gfresh (19 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> I say good luck taking trading advice from a newspaper. That is the oldest bull market story for the last 200 years. " We need a 10% correction"




There is no trading advice in that article, just some comments from senior analysts  Anyhow.. back to the technical analysis here.

We've just had 11 trading days above 6360, and today a large upward candle, pushing us very close to that 6430 mark which has been a resistance level - surely this is a fairly positive signal?


----------



## nizar (19 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A strong overnight performance from the Yanks, and maybe XAO will break out its range?

Interesting how todays rise was almost the exact reverse of yesterdays fall.

A close above 6450 would just about confirm it for me.


----------



## Edwood (20 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I make a gap of around 30 outstanding from yesterdays open - looks as tho we could leave that one now for the trip back down


----------



## nizar (20 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> A strong overnight performance from the Yanks, and maybe XAO will break out its range?
> 
> Interesting how todays rise was almost the exact reverse of yesterdays fall.
> 
> A close above 6450 would just about confirm it for me.




Well DJIA up 82 pts to record close, base metals up, gold up, oil up.
Looks to me like its breakout time 
And yes -- That means blue skies


----------



## CanOz (20 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Well DJIA up 82 pts to record close, base metals up, gold up, oil up.
> Looks to me like its breakout time
> And yes -- That means blue skies





Just a darn shame it wasn't a Tuesday!

Cheers,


----------



## Wysiwyg (20 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This leveling out period from May has certainly sorted the wheat out from the chaff.With a million new explorers out there and only some that are gonna make it , this spell has been great for research.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (20 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XJO / XAO

Guys I should have updated yesterday afternoon but i was to lazy after seeing us not only hold our highs but close above the high made in the morning it totally changed my mind. seeing yesterdays break of the minor trend line triggered me to take a short which was stopped yesterday morning.

Main point that made me take a long yesterday was the dynamic of the markets changed buyers were buying there was no afternoon retreat, 2nd we confirmed the support level with a strong push. see Trembling hands chart and G fresh for the support line i am talking about. 

today looks like the real deal technically, (and all nizars good points) ig xjo is already above 6400. But until i see a close at 4.00pm on xjo above or strongly above 6400 i am still 50/50. I prefer to see a strong rise over 6400 close on or above 6410.

great sights guys and good trading.

Can, Nizar happy days on sek huh i saw i made red yesterday not to worry the angle was way to high looks like 5x1 so let it retrace to the 33 - 50% point and look for it to rebound great add oppertuity there. I sold already took profits but now I look at it feel i was a touch to hasty, I may look to jump on board as well if it drops to that % range!


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What, were have all the "test of the lows" gone? 

Gee it dosen't take much to get  Bearish to Bullish swing here does it?




Trade_It said:


> XJO / XAO
> 
> today looks like the real deal technically, (and all nizars good points) ig xjo is already above 6400. But until i see a close at 4.00pm on xjo above or strongly above 6400 i am still 50/50. I prefer to see a strong rise over 6400 close on or above 6410.




Trade_It I think you are right there.
Google just got hammed after the close on its report. As I have been posting recently our market is starting to look good, but I'm not going to get a rush of bullish blood today, It will be easy as she goes today.


----------



## nizar (20 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Just a darn shame it wasn't a Tuesday!
> 
> Cheers,




LOL so true!


----------



## Uncle Festivus (20 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> What, were have all the "test of the lows" gone?
> 
> Gee it dosen't take much to get Bearish to Bullish swing here does it?




Yes, one eye on the bigger picture; yesterday's gains only made back the previous days losses. Still to convincingly 'break' the top of the trading range on both XAO & XJO.


----------



## professor_frink (20 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> What, were have all the "test of the lows" gone?
> 
> Gee it dosen't take much to get  Bearish to Bullish swing here does it?




Why would that surprise you? 



nizar said:


> Well DJIA up 82 pts to record close, base metals up, gold up, oil up.
> Looks to me like its breakout time
> And yes -- That means blue skies




That's the not the first time you've said that recently Nizar, and everytime you do the market tanks. Keep up that kind of record and you'll be almost as good at forecasting as I am


----------



## nizar (20 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> That's the not the first time you've said that recently Nizar, and everytime you do the market tanks. Keep up that kind of record and you'll be almost as good at forecasting as I am




LOL yes Prof.
Thats why im a trader, not an ANALYST! LOL


----------



## Awesomandy (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hmm... the xao closed at 6421.8... pretty much right on the resistence line. Given that today is Friday, and the upwards movement towards the end of the day, I would like to say that we are taking off. But then, I guess it pretty much depends on the US now, as there are hardly any news to come by in Australia as we slowly move into the profit annoucement season.


----------



## wayneL (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> Hmm... the xao closed at 6421.8... pretty much right on the resistence line. Given that today is Friday, and the upwards movement towards the end of the day, I would like to say that we are taking off. But then, I guess it pretty much depends on the US now, as there are hardly any news to come by in Australia as we slowly move into the profit annoucement season.



Looks like the yanks are raining on the parade.

Dow -150 atm, SP500 -16


----------



## Sean K (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Looks like the yanks are raining on the parade.
> 
> Dow -150 atm, SP500 -16



Google and Cat spoiling the show. Seems like it's mostly financials being sold off recently and tech is taking a break. 

Shame for our markets, I thought the hold above 6450 was pretty bullish short term.


----------



## theasxgorilla (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Shame for our markets, I thought the hold above 6450 was pretty bullish short term.




I thought the same thing.  Although what threw me was that my portfolio gained about 4% on Thursday and did nothing on today's technical breakout.  I haven't delved into it yet to try and figure out which shares drove todays breakout.  Nothing to do now except hurry up and wait for Monday


----------



## Nick Radge (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here is the seasonal pattern for July. Looks like sideways to down on all time frames from today till month end...










_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> Hmm... the xao closed at 6421.8... pretty much right on the resistence line. Given that today is Friday, and the upwards movement towards the end of the day, I would like to say that we are taking off. But then, I guess it pretty much depends on the US now, as there are hardly any news to come by in Australia as we slowly move into the profit annoucement season.




I would think the waiting for the news to drive the market higher can get you in all sorts of trouble. I would not be surprised when the likes of BHP report they sell off once their good news is out.



kennas said:


> Shame for our markets, I thought the hold above 6450 was pretty bullish short term.




I am often surprised about comments like this. I really don't know how you trade/invest, for all I know you could be blowing the doors off, but it seems a lot of people’s outlook on the market depends on what happened last night in the US. We are continually getting Bearish to Bullish back to Bearish comments on every swing and turn in the US. I would think the right approach would be more like asxgorillas approach. Delve into the price action in OUR market. 



theasxgorilla said:


> I haven't delved into it yet to try and figure out which shares drove todays breakout.  Nothing to do now except hurry up and wait for Monday




Which I see as some welcome leadership coming from the Financials the last week or more. Especially as the sell the good news season starts soon with the Materials reporting. They are looking a bit toppy if some other stocks can take leadership as they pull back/ consolidate we will still break to new highs.


----------



## Sean K (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Here is the seasonal pattern for July. Looks like sideways to down on all time frames from today till month end...



I was aware of this seasonal sell off but wasn't sure if it related to Aussie stocks, and hadn't seen a chart. Is this XAO or DJI, or does it matter?

How's August look? If it's a positive month, then topping up on long term holdings on the dips in this sell off (if it continues, or happens for us) might make sence for 'investors'. Or, it may be a more confident entry point for 'traders' perhaps? 

(yes, I know exits are more important Niz :  )


----------



## Sean K (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> I am often surprised about comments like this. I really don't know how you trade/invest, for all I know you could be blowing the doors off,



You're suggesting that the US doesn't influence the Australian, or any other, market?


----------



## nizar (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> You're suggesting that the US doesn't influence the Australian, or any other, market?




I think hes trying to a get us to invest/trade with a more longer term view.



kennas said:


> Or, it may be a more confident entry point for 'traders' perhaps?




What do you mean exactly?
More confident entry point to buy what?
The index? Or bluechips?

Im personally not fussed what the index does, sometimes i dont check what the broader market is doing. I just focus on my stocks and on individual stocks.


----------



## gfresh (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We do take some cues from the US at points, however we don't blindly follow every single move..

blue = ASX200
red = SPX (US S&P500)

1st is 1 year, 2nd is 5 year..

It's possible the spread may become larger unless the US can pull out of their issues somewhat, and as long as our resources boom, and strong retail spending keeps things ticking.


----------



## Nick Radge (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

kennas,
that seasonality shown is the XAO. I now have a new toy that can calculate any stock or index on 3 separate time frames then plot them. Combined with the Elliott Wave and volume analysis it offers extra confluence.

The correlation to the US is interesting. You will find that Australia has tended to move away from the US moves over the recent years unless the US moves >1%. The correlation jumps to 92%.


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> You're suggesting that the US doesn't influence the Australian, or any other, market?




I’m surprised that people go from Bullish to bearish so quickly based on the US overnight action. *I think the little Aussie market and some other Asian markets actually lead moves*. Rather than always following the US like a lot of people seem to think. A lot of yesterdays moves in the US are just that, yesterdays moves. 
For example on the 18th the US was down nearly .5% but the next day, only 4 hours later, we opened up and went higher. Then that night the US Followed, Yes there you go I said it the US follow our move. In fact I mentioned it in my blog for three days we lead the US moves. Its not always that way, but the blind statement that we follow the US is just WRONG.
I trade the SPI intraday, have for a while, a lot of my trades come from fading the initial reaction on the open to the US because many times they only matter for the first 15 minutes. If you brought the Aussie open to sell on the close because of an up day in the US or the opposite for a down US you would be Toast. On a bigger time frame have a look at the big hits we have taken and think about what were the drivers, the US was not the first market to take hits. Think recent China meltdown in Feb, Commodities meltdown March 06 etc.


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> kennas,
> that seasonality shown is the XAO. I now have a new toy that can calculate any stock or index on 3 separate time frames then plot them. Combined with the Elliott Wave and volume analysis it offers extra confluence.
> 
> The correlation to the US is interesting. You will find that Australia has tended to move away from the US moves over the recent years unless the US moves >1%. The correlation jumps to 92%.




Nick
Can you do intraday correlations? For example I would love to know the correlation between the XAO/XJO afternoon session (the start being say 2 pm to the close) and the US open session to see how predictive our market is. Rather than reactive as so many think it is.


----------



## krisbarry (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am out of the market for a few days, so I wouldn't mind a correction, I hope that you could all help me out with my request...It only takes a slight global sell down


----------



## Awesomandy (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> I’m surprised that people go from Bullish to bearish so quickly based on the US overnight action. *I think the little Aussie market and some other Asian markets actually lead moves*. Rather than always following the US like a lot of people seem to think. A lot of yesterdays moves in the US are just that, yesterdays moves.




It's a bit of both, I think. When there's nothing much happening here or in Asia, we look at the US. Similarly, when there are nothing much there, they look at Asia/Europe for directions. A little bit like a dog chasing its own tail, if you ask me, and this will continue to happen until some news break out somewhere, then some markets would go up/down/whatever and the rest of the world would follow if that news has any kind of relevance to their local conditions. 

Anyway, back to the XAO. It certainly doesn't look very good for our Monday opening at this stage, so perhaps the break would have to wait another day. Although it now appears that I'm much better at looking at stocks directions rather than index directions.


----------



## wayneL (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> I’m surprised that people go from Bullish to bearish so quickly based on the US overnight action. *I think the little Aussie market and some other Asian markets actually lead moves*. Rather than always following the US like a lot of people seem to think. A lot of yesterdays moves in the US are just that, yesterdays moves.



So new highs in Oz on Monday ya reckon?

If on Monday, the SP500 goes 60-100 points in the tank, you don't think Tuesday might be a bad day on the ASX?

Institutions are global and it is not individual markets who lead or follow, rather, it's these global instos who lead. "Where" a move originates from is virtually irrelevant, it's "who" is leading the move.

So these days the place that leads a move can be anywhere.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Agree and diagree Wayne.

we do follow the us at times and other times we move in our own way. look at when the us broke out and made three rises in a row we did nothing at all apart from weaken futher.

but on the same token we will follow on other days. i treat the US and other markets as a influence and nothing more.

But for sure Monday could get interesting with a very negative start on the SPI and our very aprehensive push above 6400. I sold my iGxjo contract last night seeing that fall on the US. to me that did not seam a normal reaction, I want to see how the us players react to that fall and how we look at this new influence.

but bye the way we have been acting in the last week may rise on Monday. 

metals are up oil down a touch so the miners have support from that area, but from what i have seen in selling rushes (if we get one) not many sectors if any are safe on open.


----------



## wayneL (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Agree and diagree Wayne.
> 
> we do follow the us at times and other times we move in our own way. look at when the us broke out and made three rises in a row we did nothing at all apart from weaken futher.
> 
> ...



Ah yes,

But there is the "what". ASX is a resources market predominantly. If "they" are buying tech, for e.g., it won't show up in the ASX etc.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Ah yes,
> 
> But there is the "what". ASX is a resources market predominantly. If "they" are buying tech, for e.g., it won't show up in the ASX etc.





Damn true Wayne,

that we are. it's a hard one for me to try to call we made a text book strong break out on high volume on the xao chart but we really struggled to do it and on Friday it was a whipey day with out much true drive till the last 30 min.

so with all of that i was hard for me to take a line on that long i am really 50/50 on Monday but like i said there is a hefty defect on the spi to bring us in. also on my watch list most of my top 20 shares did not show much conviction on Friday.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As per gold thread, I'm expecting some negative bias to resources, $AU and XAO, XJO generally?, next week based on some intervention in the $US and the implications for commodity prices. 

It doesn't help that the XAO, XJO  tried very hard Friday to break out but it looks like another flat to down week ahead if based on resources, unless an X factor appears eg takeover.

Banks also tried hard but only soon to be x div CBA really delivered.
Can anybody put some positive spin on this market that can possibly drive it onward & upwards??


----------



## wavepicker (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Post #603 was EW chart of the DJI. It may as well have been the XAO as the pattern was similiar. Both imply a test back down to the base of the consolidation (Wave 4). In the case of the DJI that is a drop of 700 to 800 points at a minimum. In the case of the XAO I should think this would be back to 6200??

The date off this high on the DJI was suppose to be on the 16th July( as I am primarily working from an SP500 chart and that did top on the 16th. The DJI did one day later ( a bearish non confirmation)

So plenty of scope for a move down here and opportunities for trades on the short side next week.

Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla (21 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Or, it may be a more confident entry point for 'traders' perhaps?
> 
> (yes, I know exits are more important Niz :  )




Not necessarily...depends on whose persuasion you go with, and what you're trying to buy.  Buying for dividends for example, you might be satisfied with the increased yield during a dip...if you never intend to sell.

Apologies for momentarily being off topic.


----------



## Sean K (22 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> but the blind statement that we follow the US is just WRONG.



Did I say 'blindly follow'? By the look of the last fews years charts, you could say 'generally follow' perhaps. Check the XAO and DJI 2 years. As has been metioned however, global action can influence any market, but the US has been the 'global action' for some time perhaps. The US following a rumour on the Chinese trading floor is only a very recent anomoly.  



nizar said:


> What do you mean exactly?
> More confident entry point to buy what?
> The index? Or bluechips?



The best time to buy anything is during a correction in a long term bull market, IMO. As long as it's in the sector driving the bull perhaps. At the moment I would have to consider any pull back/correction in the materials sector in Australia to be a great opportunity to top up, unless the long term bull is over, which I don't believe it is right at this moment. Chindia is going to be buying our metals for another 10 years, at least. This is more of an 'investment' approach though, Niz, and not a very short term trading approach such as buying on breakouts to all time highs. Different courses for different horses.  

Just my impressions.


----------



## nizar (22 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> This is more of an 'investment' approach though, Niz, and not a very short term trading approach such as buying on breakouts to all time highs. Different courses for different horses.
> 
> Just my impressions.




Why do you consider buying on breakouts or all time highs to be a very short term trading approach?
Some long-term trend following systems eg. average trade length 1yr, use such an entry, or is 1yr very short term for you?

Theres an article i posted (originally posted by Nick) in the thread titled "Initial stop -- Is it required". Its a good read and highly recommended.


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Ah yes,
> 
> But there is the "what". ASX is a resources market predominantly. If "they" are buying tech, for e.g., it won't show up in the ASX etc.




Just to stick with my annoying posts I would have to again disagree about the "ASX is a resources market predominantly". 
	                 % of market Cap
Financials		38.7%
Fin-x-Property 		30.3%
Materials	             	19.7%
Industrials		8.7%
Property Trusts		8.5%
Consumer Staples		5.8%
Consumer Discret		5.5%
Energy	             	4.8%
Teleco Services		3.5%
Health Care		2.4%
Utilities	             	2.0%
Info Technology		0.5%

True though that they have an unusual weighting in our market. The S&P 500 is around 14% for energy and materials and a lot of their materials sector aren't miners.


----------



## CanOz (22 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> The correlation to the US is interesting. You will find that Australia has tended to move away from the US moves over the recent years unless the US moves >1%. The correlation jumps to 92%.




Friday was greater than 1%, yes? So we have a 92% chance that the XAO/XJO will follow.

Cheers,


----------



## Sean K (22 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Why do you consider buying on breakouts or all time highs to be a very short term trading approach?
> Some long-term trend following systems eg. average trade length 1yr, use such an entry, or is 1yr very short term for you?
> 
> Theres an article i posted (originally posted by Nick) in the thread titled "Initial stop -- Is it required". Its a good read and highly recommended.



Thanks, I'll check it out.

I'd consider longer term to be 3-5 years, what do you? You're probably right about long term technical traders buying on breakouts to all time highs, and there's probably long term fundamental investors who buy on dips into undervalued territory. Maybe there's managers who do both? Personally, I do both, depending on the stock. 

I know very little about 'system' following, I pretty much just make it all up as I go , following some loose guidelines I've established over the years. I have a written plan for every stock which I update along the way. I'll get around to developing something more robust one day, hopefully before I lose Rach's house.


----------



## Sean K (22 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> The US following a rumour on the Chinese trading floor is only a very recent anomoly.



Hmmmm, I'm not sure about this in retrospect. Maybe it's not an 'anomaly' and there's a changing paradigm, or the US has always moved to global events? What happened during the Asian financial crisis a few years back?


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here is why I think the reaction to the overseas moves is not that great of an idea. Since January 05 the SPI (with the XJO/XAO the open is always the same as the previous close so I have to use the SPI day session data as a proxy for the XJO/XAO) has gained a sum total of only *241* points during the day trading session. While the market has gone up 2500 points!!! All of the gain has come in the overnight gaps. If you are getting bullish/bearish on an intraday basis, based on the overnight moves in the US you would be placing bets that are baked into the market right on the open. Most of the day moves are filling and fading around the general trend i.e. Bullish since January 05.

If you are a longer term trader reacting to overseas moves is going to just shake you out of the trend and make you place bets anticipating a short term move that is not going to play out during that day. So don't flip your trades if the longer-term trend is in your favor.

Two other points from this data if you trade intraday the opening movement is no great indication as to the way you should trade during the day.

If you are a long-term trader you get rewarded for the added risk of holding overnight.

Will have a post on my blog tomorrow with the data and further analysis.


----------



## theasxgorilla (22 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Two other points from this data if you trade intraday the opening movement is no great indication as to the way you should trade during the day.
> 
> If you are a long-term trader you get rewarded for the added risk of holding overnight.
> 
> Will have a post on my blog tomorrow with the data and further analysis.




Interesting insight TH...I'll be looking out for that post.

ASX.G


----------



## Edwood (23 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Here is why I think the reaction to the overseas moves is not that great of an idea. Since January 05 the SPI (with the XJO/XAO the open is always the same as the previous close so I have to use the SPI day session data as a proxy for the XJO/XAO) has gained a sum total of only *241* points during the day trading session. While the market has gone up 2500 points!!! All of the gain has come in the overnight gaps. If you are getting bullish/bearish on an intraday basis, based on the overnight moves in the US you would be placing bets that are baked into the market right on the open. Most of the day moves are filling and fading around the general trend i.e. Bullish since January 05.




cheers for that Trembling Hand - interesting stats!


----------



## Edwood (23 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> if you trade intraday the opening movement is no great indication as to the way you should trade during the day.




Hi again TH, just a comment but if you're talking SPI (and associated products like XJO etc) the opening movements often set the tone for those products for the day, imo


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> Hi again TH, just a comment but if you're talking SPI (and associated products like XJO etc) the opening movements often set the tone for those products for the day, imo




Just posted a worked example on my blog but bottom line no. A gap down is still 50/50 each way for the rest of the day. 

Here’s the meat of the post;
If the market gaps down you would expect that it would work in your favor to trade short that day but the SPI has gaped down on the open more than 0.3% 133 times since January 05. It has closed that day higher than the open 67 times (50%), if you got bearish on an overnight gap down and were intraday position trading by the end of the day you would be at a loss 50% of the time. If you take a gap of 0.5% down on the open which has occurred 78 times it has again closed higher than the open 40 times being again about 50%.


----------



## Edwood (23 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Just posted a worked example on my blog but bottom line no. A gap down is still 50/50 each way for the rest of the day.
> 
> Here’s the meat of the post;
> If the market gaps down you would expect that it would work in your favor to trade short that day but the SPI has gaped down on the open more than 0.3% 133 times since January 05. It has closed that day higher than the open 67 times (50%), if you got bearish on an overnight gap down and were intraday position trading by the end of the day you would be at a loss 50% of the time. If you take a gap of 0.5% down on the open which has occurred 78 times it has again closed higher than the open 40 times being again about 50%.




Hi TH - interesting stuff, will take this over to the SPI thread, 

Ed


----------



## wavepicker (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As per posts #603 and 662, indices getting smashed as expected.
Correction should carry at least to base of the consolidation range.

Was a classic EW setup for a short, got shaken out on the repeated retest early on but went short again last night as pattern looked too convincing.

There are way too many bulls in market at present!!!. How significant is this correction??. It might be the most significant for the year. Overseas indices such as FTSE and DAX have classic EW termination patterns (Ending Diagonals). But if it ends up being shallow, then I have a very significant cycle termination of 15- 22 August. For the current move down we may get some support(not sure how significant yet) in time coming in the next 2 days however.

Cheers


----------



## Edwood (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> As per posts #603 and 662, indices getting smashed as expected.
> Correction should carry at least to base of the consolidation range.
> 
> Was a classic EW setup for a short, got shaken out on the repeated retest early on but went short again last night as pattern looked too convincing.
> ...





parked itself for the moment WP but prob not for long.  what indicator/s are you using to say there are too many bulls?


----------



## theasxgorilla (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> parked itself for the moment WP but prob not for long.  what indicator/s are you using to say there are too many bulls?




Lol, I wondered the same thing.  Sounds awfully subjective to me.  Nothing wrong with that though.


----------



## wavepicker (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No indicators, just general observations and bullish comments by financial media. Market has more downside testing to do before "unparking itself".

If this is not the most significant turn for the year and we get another leg up, then the next high expected in the 3rd week of August should be significant

Cheers


----------



## Edwood (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

yeah fair enough if it works WP.  you could be right has put in lower high, will be watching that trend line today & take it from there, decent gap down for the open


----------



## wavepicker (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Lol, I wondered the same thing.  Sounds awfully subjective to me.  Nothing wrong with that though.




I forgot ASG, you did mention before that you had much trouble interpreting EW and found it subjective. Well I agree with you EW is subjective, except these EW patterns, to me they are not subjective they were high probability. If anything, they pointed to a correction of at least a few days, later on anything can happen, and we might continue bullishly for another leg. But for now take it one pattern at a time, and the market falling. Once again support in time is 25/7/-26/7, this might be minor support or major support, but based on the patterns alone (FTSE, SP500, DJI) we should get some further downside testing before any rally starts.

Good Luck


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Waves.*
When in your view can you say that wave 5 has completed for the DJIA?
I felt comfortable that the XJO had infact passed resistance at around 6440 by enough to warrent the continuation of bullish pricing in that Index.

It is possible that any correction could be short lived.But rather than analysis thats a guess.
Unless 6170 is taken out convincingly--I cant say with any confidence that anything is over or changed.
So I'm still a BULL.


----------



## wavepicker (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> *Waves.*
> When in your view can you say that wave 5 has completed for the DJIA?
> I felt comfortable that the XJO had infact passed resistance at around 6440 by enough to warrent the continuation of bullish pricing in that Index.
> 
> ...




Hello Tech,

Depends which wave 5 you are talking about. If it’s a supercycle target then I estimate it could trend as high as 14550 if it extended. It could also finish right now!! 
We have been in the “zone” IMO for a  reversal of some type  for a while now, that is why I have been cautious in taking up longer term long positions in stocks.

All the long term cycles are “very mature” in terms of cresting ATM. Much more in fact than we had at the 87 peak. Most pundits are looking at this bull market climb in terms of % in comparison to the 87 top saying we are nowhere near the % rise of 1987. Nothing can be further than the truth and IMO they are not measuring it correctly, as Magdoran says this market an aberration, and I would say I have to agree with him. 
This last high might be quite significant as it meets the minimum requirements in terms of various cycles long and short coming together at approximately the same point in time. (Interesting that both Mag and I using 2 different TIME based methodologies have come up with this last peak date of 16Th July for the SP500). To me that says a lot. I would be more confident with the August 10-22 zone however but this may or may not happen. This time period should be a high of some type, but whether it is a higher high or lower high I don’t know. Then again it probably doesn’t matter too much does it??? It’s only 3 -4 weeks away!!! So now is a time for caution IMO.



Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The open is going to stink if you are a bull but the more important news today could well be the CPI at 11:30. If it's high it could really stink things up today, if its friendly we could bounce and as Tech/a pointed out until we print a break of the recent uptrend its still in tacked. Just a look ahead its not uncommon for the US to rally the next day from these kind of big falls especially in earnings season. A classic wall of worry keeping the Bearish levels high.


----------



## Awesomandy (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Definitely a fair drop overnight, but everything are still pretty much within the trend, so I'm not worried at the moment. The current yo-yo movements of late can be unsettling for some, especially after an extended bull period we've had of late, but personally, I'll just wait and see what happens, as the answers will present itself when the index breaks ~6450 or ~6200. Until then, there's probably not too much money to be made chasing the index.


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> As per posts #603 and 662, indices getting smashed as expected.
> Correction should carry at least to base of the consolidation range.
> 
> Was a classic EW setup for a short, got shaken out on the repeated retest early on but went short again last night as pattern looked too convincing.
> ...




Just a quick stat on big gaps down on the Aussie market. Since January 05 it has gaped down from the day session more than 1% 25 times. If you take the close from the day it gaped down and looked ahead three days later it has closed higher 22 times. The average gain from the close on the first day to close three days later for the 22 positive times has been 98 points.


----------



## wavepicker (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Just a quick stat on big gaps down on the Aussie market. Since January 05 it has gaped down from the day session more than 1% 25 times. If you take the close from the day it gaped down and looked ahead three days later it has closed higher 22 times. The average gain from the close on the first day to close three days later for the 22 positive times has been 98 points.




Good stats TH, those are good odds.  One observation made by myself and another Elliotician on this forum, was that the intraday wave structures on the XAO from 2-3 days ago appeared to “corrective” in nature. This might be a clue, in that perhaps this is just a correction and not something much bigger. Just because these wave structures were corrective however does not mean that we won’t have a big correction but does show that the correction will probably be fully retraced when it’s over by an impulsive move.

If this is in fact a correction lasting a few days, then a rally to the next time cycle high  in August(this would be a longer time cycle termination) would look more convincing than this one(In particular for the SP500-not sure about XAO) 
Long term time cycles  are at or nearly at a peak so any further upside should be limited or at best a slowing of upward momentum.

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Good stats TH, those are good odds.  One observation made by myself and another Elliotician on this forum, was that the intraday wave structures on the XAO from 2-3 days ago appeared to “corrective” in nature. This might be a clue, in that perhaps this is just a correction and not something much bigger. Just because these wave structures were corrective however does not mean that we won’t have a big correction but does show that the correction will probably be fully retraced when it’s over by an impulsive move.
> 
> If this is in fact a correction lasting a few days, then a rally to the next time cycle high  in August(this would be a longer time cycle termination) would look more convincing than this one(In particular for the SP500-not sure about XAO)
> Long term time cycles  are at or nearly at a peak so any further upside should be limited or at best a slowing of upward momentum.
> ...




This is what I can never figure out with 'Idiot Wave Theory' how do you know what Wave we are in? Maybe that just makes me the Idiot.


----------



## wavepicker (25 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> This is what I can never figure out with 'Idiot Wave Theory' how do you know what Wave we are in? Maybe that just makes me the Idiot.




Hello TH,

It doesn’t really matter which wave you are in, it is only of secondary importance, this where most come unstuck.  The pattern is what matters especially in this case. Refer post #603 where I posted a chart of the DJI last week..

You can figure out the probable wave count from the structure of the pattern. In this case the count is not important. You had a sideways consolidation (contracting triangle wave 4). These types of patterns ALWAYS precede the final move up in an impulse in this case wave 5(depending on the degree of trend you are looking at). If it was a correction then it would have preceded the wave C. That pattern was the big giveaway.  I find EW just as subjective as the next person sometimes, but it does has positives and this is one of them. If it’s too subjective then give it a miss and find a market that is conforming to EW tenets!!

What was good about this wave 5 was that it was accompanied by a time cycle on the 16th July.   In this case I don’t know how much of a correction we are gonna get . It could be quite large it could be small, but based on the pattern and probabilities, it might be good for a test toward the base of the consolidation and that is where I would probably be looking. It’s explained in post # 603

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (26 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> I would be more confident with the August 10-22 zone however but this may or may not happen. This time period should be a high of some type, but whether it is a higher high or lower high I don’t know. Then again it probably doesn’t matter too much does it??? It’s only 3 -4 weeks away!!! So now is a time for caution IMO.
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers




Here is my bit for the BEARS.

Woke up screaming in the middle of the night remembering the junction between wavepickers August 22nd peak date and BHPs results announcement on the same day!!!!
Could it be our biggest cap stock blows the doors off, but because of the big run its had we get sell the news and it rolls the whole market over. Could that be our last great day, The day the bulls say I told you so, the bulls go to bed with the sound of victory trumpets still ringing in their ears only to wake up the next day and watch the materials start a down trend.


----------



## wavepicker (26 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Here is my bit for the BEARS.
> 
> Woke up screaming in the middle of the night remembering the junction between wavepickers August 22nd peak date and BHPs results announcement on the same day!!!!
> Could it be our biggest cap stock blows the doors off, but because of the big run its had we get sell the news and it rolls the whole market over. Could that be our last great day, The day the bulls say I told you so, the bulls go to bed with the sound of victory trumpets still ringing in their ears only to wake up the next day and watch the materials start a down trend.




Hi TH,  the August 15-22nd zone is a point in time and that is all. It could be a higher high than the last peak it OR it might be a lower high of some type. Not saying bull is over, just taking it one step at a time ATM. What is interesting is that the SP500 for example has found OBVIOUS resistance at the level of the year 2000 peak. Now best to focus on the pattern of the trend as is the best clue to what the market has in stall. Time cycles are merely a guide and perhaps alerting us to be cautious at this juncture.

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (26 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Hi TH,  the August 15-22nd zone is a point in time and that is all. It could be a higher high than the last peak it OR it might be a lower high of some type. Not saying bull is over, just taking it one step at a time ATM. What is interesting is that the SP500 for example has found OBVIOUS resistance at the level of the year 2000 peak. Now best to focus on the pattern of the trend as is the best clue to what the market has in stall. Time cycles are merely a guide and perhaps alerting us to be cautious at this juncture.
> 
> Cheers




I was being a bit foolish but I am worried about the reporting season starting now. Not that they will be bad but that the good news is baked in already. Especially the miners as they are ones that have held the market up if they crack and something else does not stand up i.e. the financials it could get a bit ugly.

Not really any surprise that the 2000 highs on the SP500 have acted as resistance if they didn't in some way well, T/A would be rubbish!


----------



## hacheln_mice (26 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hmmm.  The morning slide seems to be caused by more hedge fund problems...except this is now an Australian problem too....

I'd like to think the 61.8% retracement of the recent move at 6315 will hold and be a buying opportunity...or we'll be testing 6220 again.


----------



## tech/a (27 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hmm stage set for some interesting market action.
Going to be expensive for long term porfolio holders like myself.
Still no guarentee's this will freefall.
However O/N volume on the DJIA suggested supply was strong,rather than lack of demand.

Sell off/retrace/stronger sell off common reversal pattern.
6170 becomes the focus on our market.
*How this level reacts when and if hit.* Will determine future market probabilities.

Current market top is very close to final (similar but varied) wave 5 measurements given by many.
The in ability of the market to take out the 6440 high convincingly seems to at this point indicate that the top is in.(Fooled me!).


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Hmm stage set for some interesting market action.




Yes I'm long that idea!

Today the consolidate, run again game is dead, not the bull market. We will need a new playbook until the highs are taken out convincingly and I can't see anyone thinking that will happen for some time. We have not had a down side break to a meaningful consolidation in 4 years. This will be the start of a new game for many!


----------



## Sean K (27 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Yes I'm long that idea!
> 
> Today the consolidate, run again game is dead, not the bull market. We will need a new playbook until the highs are taken out convincingly and I can't see anyone thinking that will happen for some time. We have not had a down side break to a meaningful consolidation in 4 years. This will be the start of a new game for many!



I'm not convinced yet. Our economy is cooking. Europe and BRIC are cooking. The US sub prime issue has not yet translated to weaker profits across the board. Maybe it's the start, but it's not conclusive. Normal correction for me, to be proven wrong of course!


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'm not convinced yet. Our economy is cooking. Europe and BRIC are cooking. The US sub prime issue has not yet translated to weaker profits across the board. Maybe it's the start, but it's not conclusive. Normal correction for me, to be proven wrong of course!




When the next break high and then consolidation happens how many are going to think about the pain their long portfolios had taken today and factor in the chance of a downside break rather than just another run up? As I recall even the Bears on this forum were thinking a 'Test of Lows' not a break. I think this will change the way people think. I'm not saying the Bull is dead just the game has changed. Of course today still has to play out.


----------



## Sean K (27 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think we could get to 6200-6150 and still be going OK. Then it gets more risky approaching the 200 d ma and last significant peak at about 6000. Breaking that, and I'll put on a bear suit. I think the diverging MACD has been a give away for the previous several weeks.


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I think we could get to 6200-6150 and still be going OK. Then it gets more risky approaching the 200 d ma and last significant peak at about 6000. Breaking that, and I'll put on a bear suit. I think the diverging MACD has been a give away for the previous several weeks.




The SPI have us at 6080 for the open!!!!!!


----------



## CanOz (27 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Will this bounce? Thats quite a gap.


----------



## Awesomandy (27 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> The SPI have us at 6080 for the open!!!!!!




It was at a nice and round 6000 just then, now at around 6050. Together with a possible crash, there is going to be a lot of volatility around. Perfect time for those who have a short-mid time frame and trade on having the volatility coming back to its normal levels in a few months time.


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

God only knows what its like to hold a long CFD account through this kind of mess. I imagine you would have nothing left if you were 50%!

That's what I meant about.



trembling Hand said:


> Today the consolidate, run again game is dead, not the bull market. This will be the start of a new game for many!


----------



## CFD (27 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> ~~
> I think this will change the way people think. I'm not saying the Bull is dead just the game has changed. Of course today still has to play out.




Well you picked me in one!

Seems to me (being wise after the event) that only looking for and having long positions has a risk. The risk being that no matter how good the (in my case stock) selection, they can get over run by the market sediment. This risk would be reduced if one could identify a few short positions to hold with the longs (CFDs) in an overall up trending market.

Just one little question, how do I do that.


----------



## Awesomandy (27 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CFD said:


> Well you picked me in one!
> 
> Seems to me (being wise after the event) that only looking for and having long positions has a risk. The risk being that no matter how good the (in my case stock) selection, they can get over run by the market sediment. This risk would be reduced if one could identify a few short positions to hold with the longs (CFDs) in an overall up trending market.
> 
> Just one little question, how do I do that.




If you've picked good long positions, even during the bad times, they'll recover the quickest, so, in that sense, it is not too bad if you've done your homework, and have enough financial depth to ride out the troughs. As for identifying short positions, I'm not an expert in that, but from my limited knowledge, you can consider shorting an index, which will act as an insurance against the market sentiments going the wrong way. You can pick a short position that is, say, in a different sector (e.g. you think interest rates will rise very quickly, so you might short a stock or 2 in the consumer discretionary sector), or you could even short another company in the same sector (e.g. if you think bhp will rise more than rio, you can buy long in bhp, and sell short in rio, as this will also give you some protection in the resource sector).

I'm not sure how accurate I am, but that's what I know about shorting and hedging your positions.


----------



## CanOz (27 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CFD said:


> Well you picked me in one!
> 
> Seems to me (being wise after the event) that only looking for and having long positions has a risk. The risk being that no matter how good the (in my case stock) selection, they can get over run by the market sediment. This risk would be reduced if one could identify a few short positions to hold with the longs (CFDs) in an overall up trending market.
> 
> Just one little question, how do I do that.




How do you pick high probibility longs?

If you looks for strength coming in, then look for weakness for a short....then look for a downside target with S&R or triangle targets etc.

Cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CFD said:


> Well you picked me in one!
> 
> This risk would be reduced if one could identify a few short positions to hold with the longs (CFDs) in an overall up trending market.
> 
> Just one little question, how do I do that.




Think the real issue is not should I short/hedge but the real problem with CFDs is value at risk. If you factor in a hit like today you would be a lot more cautious with leverage. Just stated a post about this in the derivatives forum. 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7697


----------



## CanOz (31 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone think we and the rest of sane asia could be leading the US?

We bounce, they bounce...

Interesting to see what happens today when we continue to retrace into old support....will we continue the correction and then tonite the US too?

Cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Anyone think we and the rest of sane asia could be leading the US?
> 
> We bounce, they bounce...




I have said it many times before, but I'm sick of arguing that one, so no comment from me, or is that a comment. 

Ah stuff it I will comment. Watch out today the US rises are already baked in good chance to sell the open i reckon or at least not get to carried away on the US move.


----------



## CanOz (31 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> I have said it many times before, but I'm sick of arguing that one, so no comment from me, or is that a comment.
> 
> Ah stuff it I will comment. Watch out today the US rises are already baked in good chance to sell the open i reckon or at least not get to carried away on the US move.




Agree. I've got one last position to sell, hoping for a little strength to sell into....Then i'm all cash with a few shorts on my watch list ready and waiting.

Just looking at where the Aussie 200 spiked down, tempted to take a long into 6140-50...i think i'll just watch.

Cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone thinking that if we are down tomorrow they will Short? I would like one more hit down lower with some real panic selling. Thinking that will be the end of it, not that I ever get what I want to happen. Just wondering anyone thinking hear is the place to get Short?


----------



## >Apocalypto< (31 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Anyone thinking that if we are down tomorrow they will Short? I would like one more hit down lower with some real panic selling. Thinking that will be the end of it, not that I ever get what I want to happen. Just wondering anyone thinking hear is the place to get Short?




I am with you TH,

I am also thinking of short possibilities yet i hate to trade against the trend.

there was a quick 54 pts long to be made on the spi last night but if any had it, hope they got out of it quick this morning on open.

I will wait to see how the us futures shape up tonight around 9.30pm. to confirm the short.

I have no money in stocks or our lovely xjo right now . Have a long on the AUD from yesterday and a short on the EUR/GBP this morning.

if there is a nice negative influence yesterdays push and more might be released. will be watching where the next sell down stops looking for higher lows right now.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No I'm not thinking of shorting, in any case im a flipper 10 to 30 minutes in most trades. I was thinking that its would be hard to put on shorts here the chances of a bounce back rally would get even higher if we had one more whoosh lower. All in all unless your a long term player I'm not sure which way I would go this week. Anyone thinking something else?


----------



## CanOz (31 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Agree. I've got one last position to sell, hoping for a little strength to sell into....Then i'm all cash with a few shorts on my watch list ready and waiting.
> 
> Just looking at where the Aussie 200 spiked down, tempted to take a long into 6140-50...i think i'll just watch.
> 
> Cheers,




6150 on the nose by my mini Aust 200 chart...and down she goes...


----------



## >Apocalypto< (31 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> 6150 on the nose by my mini Aust 200 chart...and down she goes...




Can you take that long mate? it sure came back like a rocket. hope you did and had a nice little earner.


TH,

if that's the case whatever happens, happens. there are plenty of intraday shorts to chase on the spi today hade a nice drop and v reversal into close at the moment you must be rolling in it.

no shorts or longs for me still watching, looking for a long once this shows signs of progression.

notice the dow found support on its fib point which is also a support line wonder if it can hold it, if it can that will make it very significant on the short term.

TH, not trying to be a smart ass here but we followed the dow session last night to the tee. Dow opened up fell into negative then rallied into the close.

well u know how our day went. so at times we dont not follow the us lead or we do our own thing based on other influences.

but come on mate you really think the yank investors give two hoots what our little market does (unless invested).


----------



## CanOz (31 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Can you take that long mate? it sure came back like a rocket. hope you did and had a nice little earner.





No TI, i'm still learning so happy to watch it for now....besides i had such a crappy connection that i had to use the original charts.


What are your critical levels on this? I see this 6150 level, and if we get through that then i think i had 6180 as the next resistance?

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto< (31 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> No TI, i'm still learning so happy to watch it for now....besides i had such a crappy connection that i had to use the original charts.
> 
> 
> What are your critical levels on this? I see this 6150 level, and if we get through that then i think i had 6180 as the next resistance?
> ...




yep nice target Can,

I have 6050 - 6150 on the ig xjo and possible resistance at 6180 - 6200 if the support is a little out please dont come at me with abuse as its straight out of the memory no chart in front of me at present.

currently I am not in a rush to be back long, I can't say yet, that this has found any feet. I am looking for the next test to show higher low or confirmed support down the line.

Can make paper trades on the xjo see how u go. (its damn cheaper right now as well!)

good on u.......


----------



## CanOz (31 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> yep nice target Can,
> 
> I have 6050 - 6150 on the ig xjo and possible resistance at 6180 - 6200 if the support is a little out please dont come at me with abuse as its straight out of the memory no chart in front of me at present.
> 
> ...




Yeah, i'm just looking to see where the next leg down might start really. I was thinking that this is really just a retracement before a larger move down and i thought we might have seen the end of it today, but until i see the night session and the how the US goes before it opens i'll watch and wait...and then watch some more!

Cheers,


----------



## wayneL (31 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> TH, not trying to be a smart ass here but we followed the dow session last night to the tee. Dow opened up fell into negative then rallied into the close.
> 
> well u know how our day went. so at times we dont not follow the us lead or we do our own thing based on other influences.
> 
> but come on mate you really think the yank investors give two hoots what our little market does (unless invested).



Exactly!

They couldn't give a %^$. Japan, HK, Frankfurt, London, yes. But ASX?

It's like, AS who?


----------



## Sean K (31 July 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Exactly!
> 
> They couldn't give a %^$. Japan, HK, Frankfurt, London, yes. But ASX?
> 
> It's like, AS who?



We *rarely *get a mention on CNBC US version, CNN US or even Asia version, or BBC business news.


----------



## wayneL (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> We *rarely *get a mention on CNBC US version, CNN US or even Asia version, or BBC business news.



In the UK they don't even know if we have a market at all... and are not interested.


----------



## tech/a (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Time to evaluate where we are.


----------



## nomore4s (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Time to evaluate where we are.




Will be interesting to see if we follow the Dow or the UK and Germany today.


----------



## theasxgorilla (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Will be interesting to see if we follow the Dow or the UK and Germany today.




Or neither, with a _fence-sit_ day!


----------



## Sean K (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Or neither, with a _fence-sit_ day!



I'd be happy with that. It would allow me to put some more shorts on. The bear is waking up in me.


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Will be interesting to see if we follow the Dow or the UK and Germany today.




The Materials sector held up OK in the US especially after the strong Europe. So they might do relatively OK today but Macquarie Bank has said today that the credit problems in the States has hit one of its funds. So the credit mess is starting to show up in the Aussies wealth management sector. And the Financials have been in a down trend since May, smart money out of them a long time ago!! 
Would like a nice panic hit down to flush out the last of the weak longs. Think that three day hit was to fast for most to get out, think many are still desperately hoping for a bounce.  Not to mention bring in some late short players to squeeze later.


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Smells a bit panicky out there today. Financials getting poll-axed. 
I'm sure everyone is pulling up charts looking for support? Hope we don't bounce in the next couple of days. Will be just an opportunity to get short again. Think while we are down here might as well wash out everyone. A good old fashion capitulation is what we need early next week like we got on 14th of June 06. Then we will have a new game to play. Squeeze the in to late shorts.


----------



## Awesomandy (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Would like a nice panic hit down to flush out the last of the weak longs.




I closed out a few positions this morning, actually. May be it's time to re-evaluate where I put my stop losses/profit stops. I'm still pretty new at this - I was lucky enough not to have much money on the market during the past correction periods.


----------



## powerkoala (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How low we will go ?
before 12pm, XAO still in -90 area.... but now, it goes lower and lower.
currently at -137 and still going down.
I guess our market is really at the panic state now.


----------



## gfresh (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anybody would think the banks are about to go out of business.. when they'll probably be soon annnouncing record profits. 

XJO just about to breach the 6000 mark  edit.. bye 6000


----------



## Sean K (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yep, fear is winning. Just as likely the US will have some ++ earning results tomorrow and we will bounce. On the other hand......time to have some equity to pick up some bargains shortly. Maybe. 

On the XAO alone, 6000 ish support, which is also around about the 200 d ma, which is likely to be a cushion.


----------



## tech/a (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Why is it fear?
Why is it not common sense business,taking notice of Fundamental catalysts?


----------



## powerkoala (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yep, fear is winning. Just as likely the US will have some ++ earning results tomorrow and we will bounce. On the other hand......time to have some equity to pick up some bargains shortly. Maybe.
> 
> On the XAO alone, 6000 ish support, which is also around about the 200 d ma, which is likely to be a cushion.




That's mean we ONLY have another 45 point to go.
Phew..
This really looks bad coz banks got hammered.
Time to go for long lunch


----------



## dj_420 (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

market seems to have dropped into a freefall

look at low for JML, absolute panick selling IMO


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dj_420 said:


> market seems to have dropped into a freefall
> 
> look at low for JML, absolute panick selling IMO




Think we are now getting a lot of margin call selling but no fear yet. Thats a couple of days away. I'm guessing.


----------



## Sean K (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Why is it fear?
> Why is it not common sense business,taking notice of Fundamental catalysts?



LOL. That's a joke right?


----------



## springhill (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OMG the market is dropping faster than Jenna Jamesons underpants!!!


----------



## aaronphetamine (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The market is dropping faster than your mothers skirt when the mail man comes around.


----------



## GreatPig (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

To put it a bit more in perspective, we've currently just lost the last four month's gains. And given that three months of that was mostly sideways, you could say it's essentially just one month's worth of gains.

The bottom of the channel each of the earlier main corrections reached is currently around 5800 (XAO). If it significantly breaches that, then it will have fallen out of the channel it's been in since early 2003.

Then I'll start wondering if it's a bear market. After that, my longer-term trend line since the 1987 crash is still down around 4200.

It's also interesting to look at where the three main Fib levels fall in the current run up from 2003. They just happen to line up pretty well with each of the three main corrections back to the bottom of the channel we've had since then.

And if the market does keep falling down to those Fib levels, my longer-term trend line (the blue one) may just meet the falling prices somewhere between the 38.2% one and the 50% one.

Or we could be pushing through 7000 by Christmas... 

Cheers,
GP


----------



## GreatPig (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And if we look at the Fib levels for the run up since the last main correction a year-odd ago, again they line up quite nicely with the three mini-corrections during that period (although the Feb one was large enough to line up with pretty much any value ).

Cheers,
GP


----------



## tech/a (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> LOL. That's a joke right?




No.

Many large player (funds) were selling through June.
These guys supply support volume AND buying volume when bullish periods are in force.
Once they are gone then you need to sell to whoever sees value at the price your selling at. If they dont see it as current value then a large chunk of support disappears.
They feed off of the public when they least expect it---TOPS when selling
BOTTOMS when buying.


----------



## chops_a_must (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> No.
> 
> Many large player (funds) were selling through June.
> These guys supply support volume AND buying volume when bullish periods are in force.
> ...



Yep. "God" knows why anyone would have been buying financials in the last 4-5 months...


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> No.
> 
> Many large player (funds) were selling through June.
> These guys supply support volume AND buying volume when bullish periods are in force.
> ...




Yep in hind site i was writing about that increased volume on declining stocks during June and start of July while we where nudging highs. Funny thing I was starting to get bullish a week out from the top as the XFJ looked to be turning around. But was just a trap.


----------



## nomore4s (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Having a crack at the 6000 mark

Nearly 190 points down for the day, wow


----------



## powerkoala (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am glad it's all over for today.
Now is time to count how much $$$ we lost 
Never imagine, this nightmare happens again. 
Last time on May 2005.


----------



## UPKA (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

today made me rethink my trading strategy. i guess its all a learning curve, bt paying a heavy price for it, losing over 2mths worth of profit over the last 3 days...


----------



## aaronphetamine (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Would some one please be able to post how long it has been since the XAO fell 198 points in one day please !

So the markets closed at 5989 points. wow what a day! its been quite interesting and sad for me.


----------



## Pommiegranite (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



aaronphetamine said:


> Would some one please be able to post how long it has been since the XAO fell 198 points in one day please !
> 
> So the markets closed at 5989 points. wow what a day! its been quite interesting and sad for me.




More to the point...when was the last time XAO fell this much in percentage *terms*?


----------



## professor_frink (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pommiegranite said:


> More to the point...when was the last time XAO fell this much in percentage *terms*?




after september 11.


----------



## Temjin (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No fun for me either. I pretty much brought my at the top and have no control over it because they are all in managed funds.  So much for a long term portfolio while I continue my trading studies. The good thing is only 35% of my portfolio is in Aussie equities and dollar wises, I didn't invest much in the first place. 

I do feel really bad for those who are heavily long and with a much much larger portfolio though...  

So 10-15% technical correction is on its way after all.


----------



## Mozart56 (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> No fun for me either. I pretty much brought my at the top and have no control over it because they are all in managed funds.  So much for a long term portfolio while I continue my trading studies. The good thing is only 35% of my portfolio is in Aussie equities and dollar wises, I didn't invest much in the first place.
> 
> I do feel really bad for those who are heavily long and with a much much larger portfolio though...
> 
> So 10-15% technical correction is on its way after all.




I kept buying on the way down hoping for a bounce that never came .. will sleep uneasy tonight if the DOW falls yet again.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Why is it fear?
> Why is it not common sense business,taking notice of Fundamental catalysts?




Agree with that Tech/a. Some over reliance of technical support levels etc. can be dangerous. The party may be over so watch the fundamentals eg liquidity and debt.
There is a time for technical analysis, but I'm not sure it is now?


----------



## UPKA (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

even with the surge in metal prices overnite, it didnt do the resource stocks any good, i think tonite the metal price might drop a lil, wont do good to tomorrow's market... or am i js being a pessimist?


----------



## powerkoala (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



UPKA said:


> even with the surge in metal prices overnite, it didnt do the resource stocks any good, i think tonite the metal price might drop a lil, wont do good to tomorrow's market... or am i js being a pessimist?




Time to become BEAR.
Seems that the jitters goes all the way to ASIA. 
Nikkei lost 377 point
Kospi lost 4%
I think it seems hard to see any green side in Europe today, and it won't be green as well in DOW. Only if bargain hunters jump on board, but I doubt it.


----------



## dj_420 (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

only have 2 positions open now. these two will have to weather the storm. exited one long term stock only 15% off its highs so not to bad, closed another position at break even.

just have to grin and bear it for other positions now.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> No fun for me either. I pretty much brought my at the top and have no control over it because they are all in managed funds.  So much for a long term portfolio while I continue my trading studies. The good thing is only 35% of my portfolio is in Aussie equities and dollar wises, I didn't invest much in the first place.
> 
> I do feel really bad for those who are heavily long and with a much much larger portfolio though...
> 
> So 10-15% technical correction is on its way after all.




u better check the aussie dollar temjin it took another smashing this afternoon as well against the us$


----------



## chops_a_must (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think we are going to get to about or just above 5800 on the XJO and XAO. I think this was said elsewhere.

It's a 38.2% retrace off the high, from the june 2006 low. It also represents the bottom of a possible ABC correction. IFF it turns out to be a quick downturn. If it fails at this level I will close all my open positions, irrespective of stops. 

I am fortunate in having half of my portfolio free carried, and wont sell them. But still, it's pretty bad out there. And I'm used to watching terrible displays, being a Freo supporter and all. Good training for this I suppose. 

Just time to watch, wait and find those stocks that really aren't being sold off despite those Grizzlies. And get them on the rebound. Bam.

Chins up people.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> I think we are going to get to about or just above 5800 on the XJO and XAO. I think this was said elsewhere.
> 
> It's a 38.2% retrace off the high, from the june 2006 low. It also represents the bottom of a possible ABC correction. IFF it turns out to be a quick downturn. If it fails at this level I will close all my open positions, irrespective of stops.
> 
> ...




Great post chops,

On the topic of shares holding out I notice CSL is holding up very well for a top 20.

it's made the news papers time to get long ha ha.
Sharemarket plunges on US fears. the age


----------



## gfresh (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> More to the point...when was the last time XAO fell this much in percentage terms?




Percentage is the important one. 

September 17th, 2001 - 5.02%
previous to this: September 12th, 2001 - 4.32%

At the moment we are down 7.11% from high of 24th July. 

Not all is terrible at the moment, after September 11, we've had higher cyclical falls, they just have been spread out further over weeks & months.


----------



## Bushman (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone tell me how much the market lost with the collapse of Enron, Worldcom and the like? My apologies but was not much interested in the share market back then.  As an aside, Enron cost the firm I was working for at the time everything (poor old Arthur Andersen - talk about a house of cards). 

I cannot see how anyone can compare a shock like September 11 (ie attack on the US mainland) to a shock/correction of a credit crunch due to a bunch of NINJA ('now income, no job, awesome) loans going bust and a few naughty hedge funds being caught with their fingers in the cookie jar? Or is that just me being stupid? 

Anyway if anyone has some info, let me know. If you are all doom and gloomed analysed out, I understand too. 

Thinking of adopting the classic ostrich trading strategy and burying my chops in the sand for 3 months. I've done my research, have my timeframe in place (CGT bless its cotton socks), have my longer term view on the global economy and will live or die by this stubborness. Man if I survive this there might even be a book out of this. 'Ostrich Manoeuvres in the Stock Market Correction'. 

Oh ****e....its hard to bear, no bull!


----------



## theasxgorilla (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Why is it fear?
> Why is it not common sense business,taking notice of Fundamental catalysts?




I think it's fear that _finally_ market participants are taking notice of Fundamental catalysts   Seriously.


----------



## theasxgorilla (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> Not all is terrible at the moment, after September 11, we've had higher cyclical falls, they just have been spread out further over weeks & months.




I don't think that comparison puts this into adequate context.  Sept 11 occured after one and a half years of a bear market in the US.  This has occured after 4+ years of bull markets globally.  A better comparison might be Oct '87 or '97.  I'm not suggesting this is where we are again...but the contexts are more comparible.


----------



## wayneL (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> A better comparison might be Oct '87 or '97...



...or '29? 

Particularly with regards the credit situation.


----------



## Bushman (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> ...or '29?
> 
> Particularly with regards the credit situation.




Oh well I was getting tired of working anyway...


----------



## Bush Trader (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bushman said:


> Anyone tell me how much the market lost with the collapse of Enron, Worldcom and the like? My apologies but was not much interested in the share market back then.  As an aside, Enron cost the firm I was working for at the time everything (poor old Arthur Andersen - talk about a house of cards).
> 
> I cannot see how anyone can compare a shock like September 11 (ie attack on the US mainland) to a shock/correction of a credit crunch due to a bunch of NINJA ('now income, no job, awesome) loans going bust and a few naughty hedge funds being caught with their fingers in the cookie jar? Or is that just me being stupid?
> 
> ...





There is an old saying that "The Bull is hard one to ride, and with it's wild bucks and spins, it carries only the bravest and most skillful of riders."  Mabey its not that old, however you know what I talking about.  The queastion we have all got to ask ourselves is has the credit cycle (liquidity, appetite for risk) really imploded?  If so what will be the wash out over the next 3 months, 6 months, ...... 2 years etc.  How will this effect the commodity super-cycle, interest rates, exchange rates, the gold market etc.

The run has been very good for a while, this mess is going to shake out the highly geared investor, and those that panic.  I used to get all tied up in knots over events like this.  Wait for the dust to settle and choose wisely.  I have never failed to make money long buying quality during a correction, however I have purchased too early before.


Good luck


BT


----------



## Edwood (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

is this the debt you mean Wayne? and that chart is a couple of years old now...


----------



## Captain_Chaza (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> I don't think that comparison puts this into adequate context.  Sept 11 occured after one and a half years of a bear market in the US.  This has occured after 4+ years of bull markets globally.  A better comparison might be Oct '87 or '97.  I'm not suggesting this is where we are again...but the contexts are more comparible.




The interest  rate in those days was 13%-/18% & 21% 
That is what you can call a "Credit Squeeze"

This is just a little water off a duck's back IMO and while 
Panic Reigns it should not be respected 
ie: IMHO    DYOR!


----------



## wayneL (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> is this the debt you mean Wayne? and that chart is a couple of years old now...



Yes, but because of computing power, the credit derivative industry is exponentially bigger, more complex and convoluted, and fraudulent now than then.

I'm trying to find some charts and explanation I saw on another forum regarding credit swap spreads or something (beyond me) that showed the true direness of the situation... basically a severe credit crunch approacheth.


----------



## theasxgorilla (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Captain_Chaza said:


> The interest  rate in those days was 13%-/18% & 21%
> That is what you can call a "Credit Squeeze"




Interest rates need to be considered relative to debt levels.  Absolute numbers do not allow for a direct apple against apple comparison.  You gotta dig a little deeper.


----------



## nizar (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well i sold out of most of my positions, 8 out of 9, on Monday's open.
I really didnt like it how the market closed down so solidly on friday, went through the 6200 support as if it wasnt even there.

The other position i sold it today.

The weekend gave me some time to reflect and Iv decided that i want to save what Iv got for my systems trading.

I didnt really want to experience a large drawdown, especially since i dont have a clue as to whether i know what Im doing (yet ). All i know upto this point is bullmarket.

Now onto XAO analysis, if this bullmarket is to go on, well, we need the 200dma which is around 5900ish, to hold. If not, then it could get ugly


----------



## EZZA (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

whats going on guys, support broken at 6200, and little of 6100 broken.
next support is at 5900.  is it time to get out for a little while until it picks up again.  cause it looks pretty ugly, just under 6000. 


anyone with any views, market being oversold b/c of sub prime exposure, factoring in of interest rate rises?  or is the market a little overvalued.


----------



## wayneL (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Interest rates need to be considered relative to debt levels.  Absolute numbers do not allow for a direct apple against apple comparison.  You gotta dig a little deeper.



Exactly! Also against inflation levels... especially wage inflation.


----------



## theasxgorilla (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



EZZA said:


> anyone with any views, market being oversold b/c of sub prime exposure, factoring in of interest rate rises?  or is the market a little overvalued.




How about this, markets are never over or undervalued, they're simply perceived.  And today, the perception of many was, "I want my money instead of my shares!" :


----------



## chops_a_must (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Yes, but because of computing power, the credit derivative industry is exponentially bigger, more complex and convoluted, and fraudulent now than then.
> 
> I'm trying to find some charts and explanation I saw on another forum regarding credit swap spreads or something (beyond me) that showed the true direness of the situation... basically a severe credit crunch approacheth.






theasxgorilla said:


> Interest rates need to be considered relative to debt levels.  Absolute numbers do not allow for a direct apple against apple comparison.  You gotta dig a little deeper.






wayneL said:


> Exactly! Also against inflation levels... especially wage inflation.



I'm no economist, but know my history, and throughout history the shift in _control_ of debt appears to coincide with a shift in the control of economic power.

And it's only negative for the ones in debt. It's just another signal for the shifting global economic balance. Just like it was when Prussia owned the French in the late 19th century, and when the US began owning the British post wars... 

There is going to be real hypersensitivity to inflation in the foreseeable future, as that will indicate the unavoidable spread of the credit crunch.


----------



## reece55 (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> How about this, markets are never over or undervalued, they're simply perceived.  And today, the perception of many was, "I want my money instead of my shares!" :




Couldn't agree with you more ASX.G - stock markets are about the supply and demand for equities. Under/over valuation simply dictates how hot or cold the winners and losers will be......

Take PDN - when it was hot, the share price was booming and no one thought it would go anywhere but up. Now, downgrades have been taken into account by analysts who state there is value, but people continue to sell it down......

It's a simple equation - more sellers than buyers, over/under/sideways valued = price going down and the inverse. Everything else is secondary....

Cheers


----------



## insider (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Once again I fail to act to market conditions as Uni gets hectic with work... It looks like I'm locked in for a while again... It's perfect timing isn't it... Bargains will certainly begin popping up...


----------



## theasxgorilla (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> It looks like I'm locked in for a while again...




If you mean that you missed selling when you ought to have...consider this...one way to stop a loss in falling shares is to close the position.


----------



## CanOz (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Well i sold out of most of my positions, 8 out of 9, on Monday's open.
> I really didnt like it how the market closed down so solidly on friday, went through the 6200 support as if it wasnt even there.
> 
> The other position i sold it today.
> ...




Good decision Niz, i just kept tightening stops up last week, got taken out of MPO by stops, and then on Monday i exited SEK finally, a bit late but still a profit. 

In cash and having some fun with shorts...mostly paper trades...but i've two to open tomorrow...if you look at the sectors, we're due to either bounce or push through completely for another sharp drop....will be watching the US tonite...however relevant.

Cheers all.


----------



## insider (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Where do you think the market needs to fall to before we call it a collapse... 5800 points... didn't the last correction have a fall about 600 points? Correct me If i'm wrong please.


----------



## springhill (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This term 'collapse' has really got me scratching my head. Sholdnt we possibly be looking at time frame losses rather than point number losses? Which is the worse of the two situations? If we lost 600 points which were gained in extremely quick time? Or is the parameters of a collapse easier defined by the time it took to make the gains? I guess what i am asking is which is more critical, the points loss or the X amount of months it took to make whatever the market eventually looses? If its only 4-6 months, i would call that a correction, 12 months worth, well then the term collapse should be used more freely.


----------



## Captain_Chaza (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Let's Go a Sailing?

OR 

Should we wait a while?

Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## insider (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> Where do you think the market needs to fall to before we call it a collapse... 5800 points... didn't the last correction have a fall about 600 points? Correct me If i'm wrong please.




Well it fell about 400 points... last correction... Spring hill does have a point about using time frames but somebody such as myself should not be trusted to give such advice... sooo far this correction has knocked out 500 points or 4 months of gains... the last correction knocked out about 1.5 months of gains or 400 points... How should we think about it...

This correction is a lot quicker and shraper... and currently the US markets are about to lose another 150 points


----------



## powerkoala (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

good news, Dow looks like in Green area.
up 32 points at the moment.
hope it will stay green until close.


----------



## CanOz (1 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> good news, Dow looks like in Green area.
> up 32 points at the moment.
> hope it will stay green until close.




poof...gone. Spiked up at the open....might be a bit choppy tnite as WP says...

Hand onto to your shorts!

Cheers,


----------



## powerkoala (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> poof...gone. Spiked up at the open....might be a bit choppy tnite as WP says...
> 
> Hand onto to your shorts!
> 
> Cheers,




false alarm.. 
now RED 53 points...
oh my... better buckle up and go to sleep...
enough for today excitement...
let's pray for the best tomorrow..


----------



## GreatPig (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't think too many successful trading systems are based on prayer...

GP


----------



## wayneL (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just some alternative XJO targets.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> I don't think too many successful trading systems are based on prayer...
> 
> GP




But many trading systems are.


----------



## theasxgorilla (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Just some alternative XJO targets.




Hahaha, for tomorrow WayneL, or just by the end of the week?? 

I know Gann Fanns or geoangles or whatever you like to call them should ordinarily be drawn from significant highs and lows, or from closes.  But in essence they're still effective for measuring the trajectory of price relative to time no matter where you place them.  The peak I've drawn it from has significance in Elliott Wave terms as many have it pegged as the end of an impulse leg. 

Using this peak for the origin of the geoangle, then in price/time terms this move is still not that dissimilar to May '06.  Price could be thought of as falling more sharply over the last few days, so as to catch up with time and square things, somewhat, if you subscribe to that way of thinking.

An interesting stat from Nick *****'s Chartist service tonight...Wednesday the 1st of August was the 2nd biggest one day fall in XJO history.


----------



## Gurgler (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like we might be in for a better day - IF we follow the DJIA. From CNN Money: 

*11th hour rally on Wall Street 
Major gauges manage late session rally after a tumultuous trading day with very high volume.
By Jessica Dickler, CNNMoney.com staff writer
August 1 2007: 5:07 PM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied late in the session Wednesday as investors scooped up beaten down shares before the closing bell. 

The Dow Jones industrial average (up 150.38 to 13,362.37, Charts) jumped 150 points, or 1.2 percent. 


The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index (up 10.54 to 1,465.81, Charts) added 0.7 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index (up 7.60 to 2,553.87, Charts) gained 0.3 percent.

All three major gauges were mired in the red for most of the trading day until blue chips led the broader market higher with less than 20 minutes left in the session. *


----------



## Bushman (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's green today - DJIA up 150 points overnight so that reverses yesterdays fall. 

I think the letter for the next few weeks is 'V' for volatility. All it will take is another mortgage company to raise liquidity concerns and down she'll go. 

But it looks like 'bargain hunters' have returned. Wonder where the ASX will go - a cautious toe in the water or gangbusters? 

Not doing a very good job in putting my head in the sand.


----------



## CanOz (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> Well it fell about 400 points... last correction... Spring hill does have a point about using time frames but somebody such as myself should not be trusted to give such advice... sooo far this correction has knocked out 500 points or 4 months of gains... the last correction knocked out about 1.5 months of gains or 400 points... How should we think about it...
> 
> This correction is a lot quicker and shraper... and currently the US markets are about to lose another 150 points




You might have another opportunity to take some profits if this bounce is significant enough to bring in some liquidity again. But be aware of another sharp decline after that.

Cheers,


----------



## Fab (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> You might have another opportunity to take some profits if this bounce is significant enough to bring in some liquidity again. But be aware of another sharp decline after that.
> 
> Cheers,




I heard on the news that the bounce was in the last 30 minutes of trading and lead by Healthcare and engineering company which are marginally represented on the asx. On the other side mining companies should go down again because commodities price were down again. I hope I am wrong but that was Commsec report comments


----------



## nizar (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> An interesting stat from Nick *****'s Chartist service tonight...Wednesday the 1st of August was the 2nd biggest one day fall in XJO history.




How long has the XJO been around for?
Not that long, i think its about 8-10years yeh??

Still a significant stat, but imagine if it was the 2nd biggest one day fall in the history of the XAO?


----------



## Edwood (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> How long has the XJO been around for?
> Not that long, i think its about 8-10years yeh??
> 
> Still a significant stat, but imagine if it was the 2nd biggest one day fall in the history of the XAO?




sorry haven't seen the article - is he talking absolute or % terms?


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just an observation. I have never seen so many long-term chats in my life as I have seen in the last week. I have even seen a trend line going back to 1987! Come on you cannot tell me that every one has been trading/investing off the weekly charts. I know its what you do when one support level is broken, you go back and find the next. But I still think the speed of this meltdown has been so fast that a lot of "Trades" have now turned into "Investments". I don't think previous support is that important here, the think I'm looking at is where any snap back rallies are going to meet resistance and roll over again. It would be the rarest of occasions for us not to retest yesterdays lows in the coming weeks in someway.


----------



## Sean K (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> I don't think previous support is that important here, the think I'm looking at is where any snap back rallies are going to meet resistance and roll over again.



Isn't previous support the resistance you are looking for?  I think I know what you mean.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Isn't previous support the resistance you are looking for?  I think I know what you mean.




Yep you got me there. 
Not very well explained on my part.


----------



## CanOz (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Just an observation. I have never seen so many long-term chats in my life as I have seen in the last week. I have even seen a trend line going back to 1987! Come on you cannot tell me that every one has been trading/investing off the weekly charts. I know its what you do when one support level is broken, you go back and find the next. But I still think the speed of this meltdown has been so fast that a lot of "Trades" have now turned into "Investments". I don't think previous support is that important here, the think I'm looking at is where any snap back rallies are going to meet resistance and roll over again. It would be the rarest of occasions for us not to retest yesterdays lows in the coming weeks in someway.




Excellent point TH, i've got three open sell stops in various positions around yesterdays lows...i'm not wanting to miss the next sharp drop...too many points to miss out on.

Cheers,


----------



## UPKA (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

the next couple of weeks will be volatile. subprime jitters want to get out, bargain hunters wanna jump in, u'll find the index graph rougher than a roller coaster ride! so trade with caution guys!


----------



## Edwood (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

plenty of gaps around to keep things interesting anyways


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Seems like there is just no bids to hold up the futures or most Stocks and down they go. Everywhere. This will really start to mess up peoples accounts. Many stocks are well below yesterdays lows! 

Nasty!!


----------



## Awesomandy (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We've now lost all of the 100 points gained in the past few hours, and it's 90min till close. Very interesting...


----------



## UPKA (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> The higher closing prices of the US indices last night does not tell the story of a nervous and directionless night, where the S&P 500 switched between positive & negative territory an amazing 30 times. The rally only really occurred in the last 20 mins with the Dow rallying 185 points. An unconvincing close with rumours of a futures trading error adding to the market concern the rally was not well supported. The VIX, a gauge of stock-market volatility and nervousness at one points climbed to the highest in more than four years, closing at 23.68 up 0.16.




from an internal newsletter i recieved this morning, quiet interesting


----------



## billhill (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Until the subprime issue goes away i think markets will remain nervous. I am out of my positions because I believe its highly likely that if two bear sterns funds as well as maquarie can be affected by subprime problems there are likely to be more. And all it gonna take for another fall is one prominent fund to say we are having problems.


----------



## Kauri (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was speaking to a broker this morning and he said that most of his clients were as nervous as Shane Warne on Fathers day.


----------



## Awesomandy (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> as nervous as Shane Warne on Fathers day.




That's a good one. 

We are on the way back up again, apparently. Up 45 points, but while I'm typing, it's back down to 28 points up.


----------



## UPKA (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> That's a good one.
> 
> We are on the way back up again, apparently. Up 45 points, but while I'm typing, it's back down to 28 points up.




that js shows u how nervous the investors r, when they see red, everyone started to dump. so any bad news coming out of US will see another bloody day here in Aust tomorrow...


----------



## Bushman (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



UPKA said:


> that js shows u how nervous the investors r, when they see red, everyone started to dump. so any bad news coming out of US will see another bloody day here in Aust tomorrow...




It's like a school of fish at the moment. Quite amazing too especially when the pilot is fluctuating between fear and greed. There are so many lessons to be learnt from this for next time around. Number one is flee to cash when you hear the words 'credit', 'US' and 'crunch' in the same headline. It would have been handy to have the funds to snaffle a few bargains in the next few days rather than suffer the daily ignominy of belligerent red. 

Ha ha. The old timers must be loving hearing us novices be constantly amazed and befuddled by the market. What did they call it in Vietnam? Veterans had the 'thousand yard stare'. We should dub it the 'thousand point stare'. 

Wonder what Aunty Dow has instore for us tonight? Seeing it leapt up and down like a yo-yo yesterday there is not much point taking too much comfort from the hard yards put in by 'bargain hunters' at the close yesterday. 

Good luck with the head scratching.


----------



## Pommiegranite (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bushman said:


> It's like a school of fish at the moment. Quite amazing too especially when the pilot is fluctuating between fear and greed. There are so many lessons to be learnt from this for next time around. Number one is flee to cash when you hear the words 'credit', 'US' and 'crunch' in the same headline. It would have been handy to have the funds to snaffle a few bargains in the next few days rather than suffer the daily ignominy of belligerent red.
> 
> Ha ha. The old timers must be loving hearing us novices be constantly amazed and befuddled by the market. What did they call it in Vietnam? Veterans had the 'thousand yard stare'. We should dub it the 'thousand point stare'.
> 
> ...




One crumb of comfort is that the DOW is an 'evolving creature' in that it gets used to bad news and soon takes it in it's stride.

When 9/11 hit, it was a shock and the DOW got hit. Subsequent terrorist alerts/bad news in Iraq/possible conflict with Iran/N Korea then seemed to get ignored by the market i.e it became a way of life

I reckon by next week, the DOW will plough forward based on what it should i.e corporate earnings.

By next month, the words 'crunch,credit,US' will be shrugged off as a way off life, and we'll wonder what all the fuss was about.

On that subject what were the last 2 corrections all about? I've forgotten


----------



## CanOz (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pommiegranite said:


> One crumb of comfort is that the DOW is an 'evolving creature' in that it gets used to bad news and soon takes it in it's stride.
> 
> When 9/11 hit, it was a shock and the DOW got hit. Subsequent terrorist alerts/bad news in Iraq/possible conflict with Iran/N Korea then seemed to get ignored by the market i.e it became a way of life
> 
> ...




This is the craziest post i've seen for some time Pomme. You're attributing every sell off to news?

Price action creates news to hang on it because it sounds better than _"the DOW fell today because there were not any buyers around, the funds all sold last week and stupid moms and dads where left holding the bag"_

We've just seen an obvious period of distribution like none recent, we need to see some buyers enter before prices will move up. 

Cheers,


----------



## Pommiegranite (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> This is the craziest post i've seen for some time Pomme. You're attributing every sell off to news?




I find your logic very disturbing. Firstly because you have decided to analyze my post beyond the neccessary. Where did write that "I attribute every sell off to news"? 

I'll throw your logic back at you and ask you "You're not attributing any sell off due to any news?". 

FWIW..IMO..Sell offs happen due to a combination of news and fear



CanOz said:


> Price action creates news to hang on it because it sounds better than _"the DOW fell today because there were not any buyers around, the funds all sold last week and stupid moms and dads where left holding the bag"_




Rubbish...absolute rubbish!! So when the DOW fell 600 point *after *the attacks on the WTC, what you are infact saying is that this price action created the news to hang around it?



CanOz said:


> We've just seen an obvious period of distribution like none recent, we need to see some buyers enter before prices will move up.
> 
> Cheers,




We need good news/lack of bad news so buyers will enter....please don't put the cart before the horse.


----------



## insider (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I believe the last correction was a double serving of a slumped US housing Market and an expected interest rate rise...


----------



## steven1234 (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It will be interesting to see if we get the late friday afternoon dump tomorrow.  

Or will people anticipate the late afternoon dump and liquidate prior to lunch... then the flock will see the sell off  and sell off even more in fear, only for bargain hunters to come to the rescue just before close 

The XJO nudged the 200 day moving average today.  The XAO is getting close.  

I'll be watching for a sell off tomorrow (and bargains).  The bottom can't be too far  (i hope).


----------



## Awesomandy (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



steven1234 said:


> The XJO nudged the 200 day moving average today.  The XAO is getting close.




Yes... in fact, from today's intra-day activities, it actually looks like we bounced off it just before 3pm.


----------



## CanOz (2 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pommiegranite said:


> I find your logic very disturbing. Firstly because you have decided to analyze my post beyond the neccessary. Where did write that "I attribute every sell off to news"?
> 
> I'll throw your logic back at you and ask you "You're not attributing any sell off due to any news?".
> 
> ...




Ok, my apologies for being a little agressive there...

Its just that it really gets to me how the media fits stories around much (but not all) of the price action that we see in the markets. Take oil futures for example, watch the spot chart and then flip back and forth between that and CNBC and listen to the rubbish about how nervous traders sold off because of this and that, not a mention that prices hit a key support or resistance level and traders took profits becuase they were locked in holding and hoping from the last advance or decline.

I agree that major news moves markets, but when we are ripe for a technical correction people blame the news on the fact that there are no buyers around....the buyers left the building ages ago and its only the weaker hands that are causing the prices to fall by having to accept lower and lower prices to get a fill.

If you want to know how the markets use news then look at RIO recently, the big end of town got out on the day they announced the Alcan takeover...sell the news.

The balance of supply and demand determines the prices of stocks, futures and currencies, thats a fact. News determines what happens to the price action when participants act on it given the balance of supply or demand already in the price of the issue.

When the buyers do re-enter the market, the real buyers not the everyday traders, it will be in the form of absorption buying or capitualation. Then a period of consolidation before prices start to move higher from the mom and dads etc, paying up for a stock because theres not enough to go around.

Cheers,


----------



## gregcourageous (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The dow has opened very nicely... up 40 points so far... anything could happen yet though...


----------



## wayneL (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Ok, my apologies for being a little agressive there...



Canucks are so polite! 

I found it truly refreshing when I was in Canada.


----------



## chops_a_must (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The XAO looks to have bounced off the 61.8 retrace level of the recent run. All things point to at least positive action, rather than a continued slide. But, most importantly these key levels (200dma etc.) have been respected so far. It has to giddy up now, otherwise I will be worried.

Strangely enough... I've enjoyed all of this. I must have issues. Lol!


----------



## Bushman (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Strangely enough... I've enjoyed all of this. I must have issues. Lol!




No issues there mate. I've enjoyed it a heck of a lot.   

That or we both have issues. I'll let you know what my shrink says about the matter. 

Dow up 1% over night.


----------



## Pommiegranite (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Ok, my apologies for being a little agressive there...
> 
> Its just that it really gets to me how the media fits stories around much (but not all) of the price action that we see in the markets. Take oil futures for example, watch the spot chart and then flip back and forth between that and CNBC and listen to the rubbish about how nervous traders sold off because of this and that, not a mention that prices hit a key support or resistance level and traders took profits becuase they were locked in holding and hoping from the last advance or decline.
> 
> ...





Hey..no worries Canaussieuck. Please accept my apolgies too.

About news items relating to markets, I classify them into 2 distinct types:

a.Genuine Events - affect markets
b. Reporting - i.e views which can lead to panic and also recovery.

I think its the second type that can be utter rubbish.


----------



## UPKA (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Another volatile day in US last nite, im expecting the similar sort of thing in XAO today, Subprime worries r cooling down, could be a turning point now.


----------



## Pommiegranite (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



UPKA said:


> Another volatile day in US last nite, im expecting the similar sort of thing in XAO today, Subprime worries r cooling down, could be a turning point now.




I thought that volatility was down last night.
Also, thats 2 updays in a row (first time in 3 weeks)


----------



## CanOz (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is the XJO but you get the idea...

Any takers for this scenario?

Cheers,


----------



## Sean K (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> This is the XJO but you get the idea...
> 
> Any takers for this scenario?
> 
> Cheers,



Looks like the Feb 28 picture, and we know what happened there. It just bounced. I think we're dependant on sub prime debacle announcements atm. No bad news, and back up. Bad news, and..........


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Looks like the Feb 28 picture, and we know what happened there. It just bounced. I think we're dependant on sub prime debacle announcements atm. No bad news, and back up. Bad news, and..........




Really, watch RIO today and spin that one as sub prime for me!


----------



## UPKA (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Really, watch RIO today and spin that one as sub prime for me!




RIO is a different story, but due to its weight its bringing down the resources sector, and Ni fell below US$30k/t, hope things will recover on monday!


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



UPKA said:


> RIO is a different story, but due to its weight its bringing down the resources sector, and Ni fell below US$30k/t, hope things will recover on monday!




Exactly. A different story. *Another story*! Not just sub prime. Cost problems. From RIO,

"Underlying earnings for the half fell 6% to US$3.53 billion from US$3.75 billion in the first half of 2006, coming in below market expectations of US$3.7 billion. "

Add to the sub prime; Cost problems, removal of the takeover premium (have a look at AWC, STO, CGJ), credit problems leaking into Aussie wealth management sector. 

My point is don't look at just yesterdays problems. There may well be more that you have to think about?

Oh. add to that. Some good old Fashion sell the news after reports


----------



## Kauri (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> This is the XJO but you get the idea...
> 
> Any takers for this scenario?
> 
> Cheers,




  Cannie,
           I see it pretty much the same way at the moment.
     Cheers
..............Kauri


----------



## tech/a (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In the short term I'm a little different.
I think this is a stronger move than thought.
I'm looking for a larger pattern here,than previous "corrections"
So rather than a 3 wave I'm looking more at a 5 wave initial corrective move.
Of which this is the start.
This is an XAO chart.


----------



## Sean K (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Really, watch RIO today and spin that one as sub prime for me!



Can you expand on that TH. And why the hostility?


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Can you expand on that TH. And why the hostility?




Sorry no hostility was meant. Boy do I need some sleep. Maybe I'm getting delirious after trading all day and night for a week!! :screwy:
Some how the game changed last week. The reason for the trigger was Sub prime but there is other problems out there and spreading.

Rio Tinto said the cost pressures affecting the entire mining industry carved US$503 million from earnings while rising commodity prices added US$513 million and increased volumes boosted earnings by US$302 million. 

The Feb correction looked like a correction and played out like one. Up down then back up on unwinding of hot money ie. China, commodities, carry trade etc.
This one has been a 3 month consolidation then a big down side break after some serious distribution in the Financials. That is Different we have not had that kind of stealthy distribution since the start of the bull run 03.

Yes the Sub prime mess is baked into this market but I have some worries about the Materials selling off after their reports and really that's all that has held us up the last 3 months.


----------



## wavepicker (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am looking for this index to move higher from here(assuming a low is in place, and if it's not, it's close)

If one draws an ascending straight line  along the lows of the last major consolidation of the uptrend and extended it into the future, that is where I would be looking. That coincides with 6300-6350.

Looking also at the chart attached, the market has reached a  lower extreme of the cycle such that it only has a very small probability of staying at in the near future. A rally back to the nominal level being the pink line (90 day MA representing  the 90 day cycle) that runs through the centre of the price action. Such a target is quite probable(based on earlier extremes either bullish or bearish in the past)

I have a point in time for this for 13-14th August, but not 100% sure of these dates as yet.

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> I am looking for this index to move higher from here(assuming a low is in place, and if it's not, it's close)




I don't think many would be surprised with some sort of snap back rally but are you saying you expect something more than that?


----------



## wavepicker (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> I don't think many would be surprised with some sort of snap back rally but are you saying you expect something more than that?




I am saying I am expecting a move back to the range I quoted, then to continue bearishly, assuming this move is a countertrend.


----------



## chops_a_must (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, it's falling off a cliff at the moment...


----------



## numbercruncher (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No need to fear, the Plunge Protection Team is at work


----------



## gfresh (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

They're pumping furiously on two continents right now.. 

We had the US last night and the night before make a late day charge, and we've had a V curve on the ASX last two days as well. Question is, will there be a Friday afternoon selloff?


----------



## insider (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's intereting to see that the XAO the Hangseng, Nikkei, Shangai markets etc. have fallen more than the Dow Jones during this correction... What Surprises me is why does an American problem influence the world more than it's own economy?


----------



## powerkoala (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> It's intereting to see that the XAO the Hangseng, Nikkei, Shangai markets etc. have fallen more than the Dow Jones during this correction... What Surprises me is why does an American problem influence the world more than it's own economy?




Really good question. Until now, i am still wondering what is really going on here? Correction due to subprime mortgage concern??? But DOW already rebound in 2 days, yet our market still in negatif sentiment area.
Nikkei maybe down due to political problems and subprime concern, but ASX??
I thought only Macquire got this problems, or I might be wrong.


----------



## theasxgorilla (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> It's intereting to see that the XAO the Hangseng, Nikkei, Shangai markets etc. have fallen more than the Dow Jones during this correction... What Surprises me is why does an American problem influence the world more than it's own economy?




Take a look at the DJIA on a chart compared with the indexes you just mentioned (not including Shanghai).  Its price action doesn't look the same.  Its a very unusual index.  Only the 30 largest companies are included and it is price weighted, which means that a $1 move in $20 stock can be offset by a $1 fall in a $100 stock, even though the relative % changes are vastly different.  This guy did some good analysis of why its a pretty poor index:

http://www.bullnotbull.com/archive/stocks-6.html

The US market overall is better represented by the S&P500, IMO.


----------



## theasxgorilla (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I'm looking for a larger pattern here,than previous "corrections"
> So rather than a 3 wave I'm looking more at a 5 wave initial corrective move.




If you are correct, and my understanding of EW is still okay, then a 5-wave impulse move down to complete the A (as yet incomplete) would be very telling.

*WavePicker*...is there any chance of seeing the cycles chart you posted with a log price scale?

I see what its showing but I wonder if it makes this probe below the bottom of the bands look excessive compared with other (so-called) corrections due to the flat price scale?

ASX.G


----------



## Pat (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Take a look at the DJIA on a chart compared with the indexes you just mentioned (not including Shanghai).  Its price action doesn't look the same.  Its a very unusual index.  Only the 30 largest companies are included and it is price weighted, which means that a $1 move in $20 stock can be offset by a $1 fall in a $100 stock, even though the relative % changes are vastly different.  This guy did some good analysis of why its a pretty poor index:
> 
> http://www.bullnotbull.com/archive/stocks-6.html
> 
> The US market overall is better represented by the S&P500, IMO.



Gorilla I have always questioned myself as to why the DJIA consits of only 30 co's. Why is the media is so concerned with the DOW? And how 30 co's can (losely) represent the US market?


----------



## wayneL (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pat said:


> Gorilla I have always questioned myself as to why the DJIA consits of only 30 co's. Why is the media is so concerned with the DOW? And how 30 co's can (losely) represent the US market?



The DOW is only for muppets. That's why the media uses it.

S&P 500 is what you should look at.


----------



## Pat (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> The DOW is only for muppets. That's why the media uses it.
> 
> S&P 500 is what you should look at.



I can certainly see the similarities between the XAO and S & P 500 (does it make sense to call the S & P 500 the OEX?  ), in the last 6 months the XAO is almost a mirror of the S & P 500.
Also, who came up with "standard and poors"? I could think of better names...


----------



## theasxgorilla (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> S&P 500 is what you should look at.




This is practically all I look at to get a meter of the US markets.

But on the topic of equivalent indexes here and in the US, I wonder whether the Russell2000 is a little more appropriate to compare with our XAO...just in terms of the size of the US market vrs our market and therefore the relative size of each (inverted) tip of the iceberg that the XAO and Russell2000 represents.  The S&P500 might be closer to the XJO?

Disclaiminer: I haven't put much thought into this, just pondering.

ASX.G


----------



## wayneL (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pat said:


> I can certainly see the similarities between the XAO and S & P 500 (does it make sense to call the S & P 500 the OEX?  ), in the last 6 months the XAO is almost a mirror of the S & P 500.
> Also, who came up with "standard and poors"? I could think of better names...



SP 500 is SPX. OEX is the SP100


----------



## wayneL (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> This is practically all I look at to get a meter of the US markets.
> 
> But on the topic of equivalent indexes here and in the US, I wonder whether the Russell2000 is a little more appropriate to compare with our XAO...just in terms of the size of the US market vrs our market and therefore the relative size of each (inverted) tip of the iceberg that the XAO and Russell2000 represents.  The S&P500 might be closer to the XJO?
> 
> ...




The Russell2000 is a mid cap index and excludes large caps. So is more comp[arable to the Aussie "Small Ords"


----------



## Captain_Chaza (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> The Russell2000 is a mid cap index and excludes large caps. So is more comp[arable to the Aussie "Small Ords"





My apologies for not answering  the PM's I recieved 
This Little Bear Hunter has been VERY BUSY!


As I understand it

The DOW is 30 Stocks 
the S&P is 500 Stocks 


The XJO is 200 stocks 
The XAO is ~ 530 stocks

All the Indecies have all the Heavywiegts
Only a few smalls are added for respectability

Once you get you head around this you will see 
WHO are the LEADERS 
and
Who are the LAGGARDS

Ahoy there dear Professor

Does the SP500 lead the DOW?

Does the XAO lead the XJO?

It would be very interesting for you/anyone to do a confirmation of charts

Re:  Learders and Laggards

"It's as easy as That!"

I think we would all  love to see what I believe to be true in these charts

Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## Pat (3 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> SP 500 is SPX. OEX is the SP100



That is right  was looking at bigcharts and got crossed, big charts has the S & P 500 symbol as SP500. Why are these symbols not universal?


----------



## gfresh (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> The DOW is only for muppets. That's why the media uses it.




I think most just see it as a general indication of the stock market in general over there, as it represents the largest, and therefore some of the the key drivers that makes up the market sentiment as a whole. If one went up, while another went down it might tell a different story. 

Why the media still choses the DOW when they could equally refer to the S&P who knows, I guess it defines the thoughts of Americans. Biggest is best? 

As for Chaza's question.. maybe somebody can interpret these


----------



## gfresh (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

United States S&P (500) vs Aussie XJO (200) for the last few months, and last few days

Looking at the daily, at times they appear to have many of the same turning points, even though they take place more than 10 hours apart!


----------



## tcoates (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Certainly was a roller coaster ride this week. (And my stocks are still down, and I will be out, watching and waiting patiently (hopefully).) But I saw in the yahoo finance pages that the DOW had dropped another 2%. Oh Dear. But there were days when the US went up by xxx this week also. And there were pundits here wondering why AUS did not do the same. I decided to have a quick look at the weekly stats and see how each market faired over the week (see attachment). 

I am not going to over analyze, while the daily fluctuations may seem great, on a weekly timescale appear to level out. And the XAO went down by 1.7%. And for the "non-muppets", here is the XJO

XJO	6,081.50	6021.00	0.99%

(Now to hope that I pulled all the correct numbers.) Need to look at things on a grander scale. Though I still think the AUS market will crap itself on Monday after seeing 2% drop elsewhere in the world. There, I have stuck my head out, but hey, if I am wrong, and it goes up, I dont really care either.

Tim


----------



## CanOz (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoaates_au said:


> Certainly was a roller coaster ride this week. (And my stocks are still down, and I will be out, watching and waiting patiently (hopefully).) But I saw in the yahoo finance pages that the DOW had dropped another 2%. Oh Dear. But there were days when the US went up by xxx this week also. And there were pundits here wondering why AUS did not do the same. I decided to have a quick look at the weekly stats and see how each market faired over the week (see attachment).
> 
> I am not going to over analyze, while the daily fluctuations may seem great, on a weekly timescale appear to level out. And the XAO went down by 1.7%. And for the "non-muppets", here is the XJO
> 
> ...




Well for starters, IG Markets have the ASX200 at 5880 ish at the finish of the US sessions....so expect an open somewhere around there depending on the gap....looks like another day of short scalps

Cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Captain_Chaza said:


> Once you get you head around this you will see
> WHO are the LEADERS
> and
> Who are the LAGGARDS
> ...




I would suspect that as soon as you find some sort of confirmation about who is the leading or lagging it will be about to change. This is always a common theme in markets, financials vs Materials, Small cap vs Big Cap, Tech and Bio vs Mega Cap Industrial. And between markets, US vs Aussie or Specie vs established. It is just the flow of big money trying to find the next hot sector. Recently the DOW has lead because of the so called comeback of the Mega Caps. I think theses Leaders and Laggards are important to keep an eye on. Have a look at the our Financials they have been in a down trend since MAY! The big money have been slipping out the door for months. The Leaders and Laggards are important but they are rarely the same ones.



gfresh said:


> United States S&P (500) vs Aussie XJO (200) for the last few months, and last few days
> 
> Looking at the daily, at times they appear to have many of the same turning points, even though they take place more than 10 hours apart!




If you think we only respond to the US and not at TIMES try and predict the next move you have no understanding of how the big money play this game. Retail traders look at what happened last night in the US. professionals (Hedge Funds, Banks, Prop Traders & Successful Individuals) Look at what will, could, should happen next and position them selves for that. Perfect example last two days jumps in the US ignored by the big money in Asia and knock the market down after it gaped up.


----------



## Fab (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> I would suspect that as soon as you find some sort of confirmation about who is the leading or lagging it will be about to change. This is always a common theme in markets, financials vs Materials, Small cap vs Big Cap, Tech and Bio vs Mega Cap Industrial. And between markets, US vs Aussie or Specie vs established. It is just the flow of big money trying to find the next hot sector. Recently the DOW has lead because of the so called comeback of the Mega Caps. I think theses Leaders and Laggards are important to keep an eye on. Have a look at the our Financials they have been in a down trend since MAY! The big money have been slipping out the door for months. The Leaders and Laggards are important but they are rarely the same ones.
> 
> 
> 
> If you think we only respond to the US and not at TIMES try and predict the next move you have no understanding of how the big money play this game. Retail traders look at what happened last night in the US. professionals (Hedge Funds, Banks, Prop Traders & Successful Individuals) Look at what will, could, should happen next and position them selves for that. Perfect example last two days jumps in the US ignored by the big money in Asia and knock the market down after it gaped up.



I would be surprised so if on monday the ASX does not register a big drop follwing the lead from Wall Street.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Fab said:


> I would be surprised so if on monday the ASX does not register a big drop follwing the lead from Wall Street.




Yes It will be a high volume down day. A lot of people will be selling exiting last weeks positions and for every panic sell or new short there will be someone on the other side buying back their short position or getting long with a view to the week ahead. Who will they be? On balance not the retail trader I would think.


----------



## Sean K (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Yes It will be a high volume down day.



Because of the US? Because of sub prime?


----------



## UPKA (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think Friday's sell off in US is just a panic sell be4 the weekend. the problem of Subprime should have less effect on energy and meterial stocks, as our market is dominated by these stocks, i think the coming monday shouldnt be as bad as the drop in US.


----------



## Kimosabi (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



UPKA said:


> I think Friday's sell off in US is just a panic sell be4 the weekend. the problem of Subprime should have less effect on energy and meterial stocks, as our market is dominated by these stocks, i think the coming monday shouldnt be as bad as the drop in US.




I hope you all realise that the Subprime Debacle has only just begun!!!

It has about another 18 Months to run out and we haven't even seen the worst of it yet....


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



UPKA said:


> . the problem of Subprime should have less effect on energy and meterial stocks, as our market is dominated by these stocks,




No our market is not dominated by energy and material.
The largest Cap sector is.......You guessed it....Financials at 30% if you include property its at 38% almost double Materials at 19 % and energy is only 4.8 % of our market.

The credit problems will result in unwinding of hot money in everything. BHP was down 3.5% in the US last night. more than the market.


----------



## CanOz (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



UPKA said:


> I think Friday's sell off in US is just a panic sell be4 the weekend. the problem of Subprime should have less effect on energy and meterial stocks, as our market is dominated by these stocks, i think the coming monday shouldnt be as bad as the drop in US.




Are you confident enough to put a long trade on the SPI?

Cheers,


----------



## numbercruncher (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kimosabi said:


> I hope you all realise that the Subprime Debacle has only just begun!!!
> 
> It has about another 18 Months to run out and we haven't even seen the worst of it yet....





Exactly !! Plunge protection team did a crap job Friday !


Seems like everyone has got up out of there seats and slowly walked towards the door, assuring us "dont worry all is cool" - Theres only one door in this room, what happens when someone screams "Fire" ?

I wonder .......


----------



## wayneL (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> No our market is not dominated by energy and material.
> The largest Cap sector is.......You guessed it....Financials at 30% if you include property its at 38% almost double Materials at 19 % and energy is only 4.8 % of our market.
> 
> The credit problems will result in unwinding of hot money in everything. BHP was down 3.5% in the US last night. more than the market.



All is interconnected though. If resources go into the tank in Oz, so does everything; property, financials, tiddlywinks... the whole shebang.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> All is interconnected though. If resources go into the tank in Oz, so does everything; property, financials, tiddlywinks... the whole shebang.




Yep. Is not the time to be a "china is still strong ostrich"


----------



## Pommiegranite (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> All is interconnected though. If resources go into the tank in Oz, so does everything; property, financials, tiddlywinks... the whole shebang.





Even gold producers/near producers with financing arranged?


----------



## wayneL (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pommiegranite said:


> Even gold producers/near producers with financing arranged?



There is two theories of course (as always)

1/ Gold will shoot up to $764,494,474,874,654 an oz (or some equally bizarre figure) as the world economy and fiat currency collapse etc etc.

2/ POG contains a speculative value for which the credit bubble is responsible and gold will go the same way as everything else; down.

Both arguments are equally compelling, but it comes down to whether any financial apocalypse is hyperinflationary or deflationary... and that all depends on how freakin' stupid Bernanke et al want to be from here on.

In my view, a deflationary recession would be miles better than a hyperinflationary depression.

If we get hyperinflation, I would want to be holding physical and/or proxy physical and not miners.


----------



## GTBC (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking at the candle sticks of the xao on Friday, Little volume and movement, being a doji.
This is a positive sign,not a bad sign.Hopefully it will gradually crawl back up. A 6100 to early may have no backbone.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GTBC said:


> Looking at the candle sticks of the xao on Friday, Little volume and movement, being a doji.
> This is a positive sign,not a bad sign.Hopefully it will gradually crawl back up. A 6100 to early may have no backbone.




Fridays action is what made me think totally bearish green doji just above the close shows indecision. We had two poor attempts to move forward. USA markets was just as unsure the two rises came out of the negative in the last 30 min of business.

A slightly lower red candle on low volumes is a continuation candle. 

Both the days on the US and our market told me to watch out the only reason I did not go short last night was due to the last minute surges on the dow, I did not want to stay up all night! I saw it as a matter of time before the selling continued.

Lets hope this next plunge can be an exhaustion move and show a true bottom.

I will be looking to make some intraday plays on monday could pluge and rally or plunge with minor rallies, I am quite sure we are going to give back all of the last two gains on Monday, most likely more.

Good trading.


----------



## Pommiegranite (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Fridays action is what made me think totally bearish green doji just above the close shows indecision. We had two poor attempts to move forward. USA markets was just as unsure the two rises came out of the negative in the last 30 min of business.
> 
> A slightly lower red candle on low volumes is a continuation candle.
> 
> ...




Isn't the market closed on Monday? Might not be such a bad thing


----------



## oshcomau (4 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pommiegranite said:


> Isn't the market closed on Monday? Might not be such a bad thing




"Due to a Public Holiday in New South Wales, Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory, Monday, 6 August 2007 will be an ASX non-settlement day. Please note the ASX will remain open for trading."


----------



## Edwood (5 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

here's a stockcharts P&F count for ASX200 targetting 5,450 - does anyone subscribe to Updata who could give one of their counts?

cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

With the news all over the weekend of the mess in the US on Friday and the stories of interest rates rising on Wednesday and a public holiday in NSW with all the Mum & Dad traders, sorry investors, watching the open with time to do something about their knocked around accounts, the setup for a retail traders panic open is just about perfect.


----------



## Sean K (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'd expect a bounce of some sorts here. Support + 200 d ma, plus where is the BB? Way oversold. Looks like crash material really.  The bouce on the stochastic might be a signal of buying....Haven't seen the MACD look like that for some time. And the trend hasn't gone under the 200 d ma since.....when...03?  Maybe I'll wait a bit....


----------



## Temjin (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is there a case for big crash?

There are just quite a few bullish news out there and I am finding it hard to believe that the market will continue to crash below whatever support (be it 200 MA) given our strong economy at the moment and the China boom. 

Of course, there is a case for the US will really go into a long-predicted depression and drag the rest of the world to it. Too much uncertainty at the moment. 

The last time the ADX- value went up that high was the 911 too. 

Ohhhh, do anyone notice some people in your office looked a bit..."down" recently?  I certainly could tell in my office for the last few days.


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'd expect a bounce of some sorts here. Support + 200 d ma, plus where is the BB? Way oversold. Looks like crash material really.  The bouce on the stochastic might be a signal of buying....Haven't seen the MACD look like that for some time. And the trend hasn't gone under the 200 d ma since.....when...03?  Maybe I'll wait a bit....





We have 4 months of longs trapped in this fall. When we fall like this it is rare that we go straight back up without some sort of retest. We have had many "corrections" since 03 but none have done the Technical damage of this fall. The Financials are a mess they gave up on their 200 day MA last week. And I have yet to see any short covering. (SPI open interest has risen not fallen). Think the second test of the lows would be a better time to think about longs. I'm sure many are still playing by the fundamentals are still good game but if you look at what has been falling since May the big guys that move the big Caps who play by the Fundamentals seem to be disagreeing since May.


----------



## nomore4s (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What is surprising me atm is the how alot of people are treating this current correction. People seem to be under the impression that the sub prime problems have nothing to do with the Aussie economy & market and will go away as quickly as they appeared, I'm no economist but if the problems in the USA are deeper than what everyone thinks or has an affect/spreads to the overall American economy that surely has to have an affect on the rest of the world, us included.

Alot of the comments on the threads atm are "this or that is cheap" or along these lines and people are expecting the stocks to bounce back quickly and to be retesting highs shortly. This seems to be especially true on some of the spec stock threads.
But what if the type of market we're in is changing? While I don't think we will drop straight into a bear market, I think it's starting to look like we will be in a sideways market for a while - for at least the next few months, maybe even longer - 1 year+. It appears to me that alot of people have fallen into a "habit" of trading a bullmarket or have only ever traded a bullmarket and seem to think that the good times will continue for ever and are failing to plan for the next phase of the market.
So to me now is the time to start looking at different strategies for a different type of market (be prepared, and if the bull continues keep your current strategies).

I have attached a chart with the last 3 larger corrections circled. The first thing I noticed about this latest correction is the distribution at the top before the fall and how sharp and hard it has fallen compared to the last 2. Judging by the sideways action after the correction in May last year we could be in for an extended sideways pattern after the fall stops. 
And unless America finds some support somewhere shortly I don't think that the 200mda will hold up.

Sorry for the rant, my 2c worth. The more knowledgable/expirenced will no doubt have a different/more informed view, please feel free to correct anything.


----------



## Pommiegranite (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> What is surprising me atm is the how alot of people are treating this current correction. People seem to be under the impression that the sub prime problems have nothing to do with the Aussie economy & market and will go away as quickly as they appeared, I'm no economist but if the problems in the USA are deeper than what everyone thinks or has an affect/spreads to the overall American economy that surely has to have an affect on the rest of the world, us included.
> 
> Alot of the comments on the threads atm are "this or that is cheap" or along these lines and people are expecting the stocks to bounce back quickly and to be retesting highs shortly. This seems to be especially true on some of the spec stock threads.
> But what if the type of market we're in is changing? While I don't think we will drop straight into a bear market, I think it's starting to look like we will be in a sideways market for a while - for at least the next few months, maybe even longer - 1 year+. It appears to me that alot of people have fallen into a "habit" of trading a bullmarket or have only ever traded a bullmarket and seem to think that the good times will continue for ever and are failing to plan for the next phase of the market.
> ...




No mention of the Chindia factor??????????????


----------



## powerkoala (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pommiegranite said:


> No mention of the Chindia factor??????????????




True.
Our market seems really over panicking. 
Just look how others go?
Nikkei rebound from -200 to -65.
Yet even US market, the one who cause the problems, down less than ASX.
If true US is collapse, market trend turns side to bear market, it won't be this year though, considering China and India demands still high.


----------



## numbercruncher (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Funny how China is shrugging all this off ....


Makes me think the fed will let it run down till China takes a hit too (>:


----------



## >Apocalypto< (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> Funny how China is shrugging all this off ....
> 
> 
> Makes me think the fed will let it run down till China takes a hit too (>:




U guys make me laugh.

Always with the china thing,

China will crumble when it crumbles ATM I would suggest you concentrate on the leading influence to our markets the numero uno USA.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For what it's worth, I am thinking a bit of a rally is in the offing tonight and for a while at least ie the coming weeks? Just in time for a real correction come October, after this qtrs US data comes out, and GDP takes a bath, and a home builder goes bust?


----------



## Captain_Chaza (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Crikey Crew

We have been through a lot over the last few years
What's all the Panic about
Maybe I have missed something

Wars (Albeit Off-shore)
Aids
Terrorist Attacks
Bird Flues and Mad Cows

This just a simple matter of the changing of the Guard

The Big Buck is no longer the Big Buck
Ego is Everything to the Yanks and they will not take this lying down

But 

They have no choice
The Seas they are a Changing

This is not a CRASH IMO 

This was a Real Crash/Credit Squeeze!

Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## powerkoala (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were poised to open higher Monday as investors saw something positive in the Bear Stearns shakeup as far as the credit crunch is concerned.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, let see how things are going tonight.


----------



## nomore4s (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pommiegranite said:


> No mention of the Chindia factor??????????????




While I agree that the Chindia thing will provide opportunities over the next decade if the US economy starts to seriously falter it will have an effect on China imo. China will to some extent feed off itself with internal growth *but* without other countries consuming Chinas exports there is no way it continue to grow at the rate it's now growing. I think people over estimate the whole Chindia thing - USA is still the dominate economy in the world, if nothing else the last couple of weeks should show just how much influence the American market still has over ours.



Trade_It said:


> U guys make me laugh.
> 
> Always with the china thing,
> 
> China will crumble when it crumbles ATM I would suggest you concentrate on the leading influence to our markets the numero uno USA.




I agree.


----------



## theasxgorilla (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> Is there a case for big crash?



I actually expected a bigger fall today that what we got.  It's almost like the market goes limit down, as opposed to free fall.  Perhaps markets are actually becoming more efficient these days?


----------



## chops_a_must (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> I actually expected a bigger fall today that what we got.  It's almost like the market goes limit down, as opposed to free fall.  Perhaps markets are actually becoming more efficient these days?




Same.

Tomorrow is going to be a key day in my opinion. We have a lot of key stocks sitting on key support levels; a lot of stocks bumping the bottom of their long term trend lines and the major indexes at a key level.



			
				nomore4s said:
			
		

> But what if the type of market we're in is changing? While I don't think we will drop straight into a bear market, I think it's starting to look like we will be in a sideways market for a while - for at least the next few months, maybe even longer - 1 year+. It appears to me that alot of people have fallen into a "habit" of trading a bullmarket or have only ever traded a bullmarket and seem to think that the good times will continue for ever and are failing to plan for the next phase of the market.
> So to me now is the time to start looking at different strategies for a different type of market (be prepared, and if the bull continues keep your current strategies).




I think we already have a bear market in the financial sector, and rightly so!! What we will know tomorrow, and probably more clearly by the end of the week, is if the materials and energy sectors can de-couple themselves from the financials. As so far, I can see no reason why materials should have matched the falls of financials, and in a lot of cases have fallen further.

Personally, I expect a bounce. It could perhaps be the bottom of a short ABC correction, perhaps not. But am more than prepared for the converse outcome. Either way, it is going to be a very busy day tomorrow for me on the markets I think...


----------



## Pommiegranite (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pommiegranite said:


> One crumb of comfort is that the DOW is an 'evolving creature' in that it gets used to bad news and soon takes it in it's stride.
> 
> When 9/11 hit, it was a shock and the DOW got hit. Subsequent terrorist alerts/bad news in Iraq/possible conflict with Iran/N Korea then seemed to get ignored by the market i.e it became a way of life
> 
> ...




I mentioned the above before and stand by it. Investors are more savvy and less risk averse, therefore the market bounces longer and stronger from each correction.

This doesn't mean that economic Armageddon won't come, but I believe it will come out of leftfield and when we least expect it...we need a few more bear to turn bullish before it will happen

'Speculate to Accumulate' is the norm these days and not just for the minority.

Feel free to throw eggs at me!


----------



## sam76 (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were poised to open higher Monday as investors saw something positive in the Bear Stearns shakeup as far as the credit crunch is concerned.
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> Well, let see how things are going tonight.




Dow futures are up half a percent as we speak

Futures

North/Latin America

INDEX VALUE CHANGE OPEN HIGH LOW TIME 
DJIA INDEX 13,339.00 73.00 13,216.00 13,349.00 13,216.00 07:08 
S&P 500 1,453.40 10.40 1,439.50 1,454.40 1,434.00 07:17 
NASDAQ 100 1,949.75 10.25 1,933.50 1,952.75 1,931.00 07:09


----------



## Bushman (6 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> Dow futures are up half a percent as we speak
> 
> Futures
> 
> ...




US Futures up on some cautious optimism returning to the financial sector.

'Meanwhile, UBS upgraded Merrill Lynch to buy from neutral, saying the fallout from the mortgage and credit businesses is mostly discounted in the broker's valuation. Merrill Lynch shares rose 1.8% in pre-open moves while TD Ameritrade , also upgraded by UBS, rose 3%. 
In addition, Merrill Lynch reiterated a buy rating on Deutsche Bank , noting that the stock of the German bank now trades on a premium to Wall Street peers.' (Quoted from US website Market Watch article 'US Futures rise amid Merril Lynch upgrade'). 

Sounds a bit like some mutual back slapping but the Dow went down on Friday on the back of a downgrading of Bear Stearns and a mild weakening in the US employment figures so this could give the Dow a piggy back over night. Some good news for the financials at the very least. 

PS: Bear Stearns still will report a profit for July despite the two hedge funds collapsing. Does this mean one of the chief protaganists have 'contained' the sub prime damage. Has been a real barometer for this correction so far.


----------



## gfresh (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The initial catalyst for this was mortage defaults.. these are not going to stop overnight, and in fact may pickup in the next few months.. so there will still need to be caution for a while to come. 

Looks like some internal pumping going on.. amazing what words from a few of the majors can do to the market.


----------



## dhukka (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> The initial catalyst for this was mortage defaults.. these are not going to stop overnight, and in fact *may* pickup in the next few months.. so there will still need to be caution for a while to come.
> 
> Looks like some internal pumping going on.. amazing what words from a few of the majors can do to the market.




Not may, will


----------



## UPKA (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Not may, will




Hey Dhukka, js wondering where u got that graph from? cheers


----------



## Bushman (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Not may, will




It's not what happens, it is whether the impact matches the markets expectations of what will happen. The key to the news on Merryl's is ' *the fallout from the mortgage and credit businesses is mostly discounted in the broker's valuation*'. So it is the impact that is not discounted in the valuation that will cause the next fall. Sub prime has been floating around for sometime now. 

My reading of it anyway.

Wonder if the US markets have factored in rate neutral decision or a rate fall for Benanke's first big call. I suspect it is a rate neutral decision.


----------



## tech/a (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*dhukka*

Can you explain the graph?


----------



## dhukka (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



UPKA said:


> Hey Dhukka, js wondering where u got that graph from? cheers




Stole it from the BIG PICTURE. Barry Ritholtz got it from Credit Suisse. You can see the name partially cut-off at the bottom of the graph.

Edit: Sorry Ritholtz got it from this blog which got it from Paul Lamont of Lamont Trading Advisors Inc. who got it from Credit Suisse.


----------



## dhukka (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> *dhukka*
> 
> Can you explain the graph?




Fairly self-explanatory isn't it? The bottom axis represents months until certain classes of mortgages reset. The 'You Are Here' refers to May when the post was first written. So you need to move down between month 7 and 9 to see where we are now. From this graph *November 07* will be the peak.  

This data was put together in January whilst sub-prime and Alt-A mortgages were still being sold by the bucket-load. So expect the right-hand side of the graph to be a little understated.


----------



## Bush Trader (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone prepared to bet that it dosen't hold 6000 points on the 4:15 close as the bounce trade exit for the night?


----------



## dhukka (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bushman said:


> It's not what happens, it is whether the impact matches the markets expectations of what will happen. The key to the news on Merryl's is ' *the fallout from the mortgage and credit businesses is mostly discounted in the broker's valuation*'. So it is the impact that is not discounted in the valuation that will cause the next fall. Sub prime has been floating around for sometime now.
> 
> My reading of it anyway.
> 
> Wonder if the US markets have factored in rate neutral decision or a rate fall for Benanke's first big call. I suspect it is a rate neutral decision.




A couple of points:

I don't follow Merril Lynch. I have no idea if their current share price reflects it's intrinsic value. You've cited one analysts opinion who says the effect of the current credit crisis is already reflected in Merril's valuation. 

Noone really knows how deep this credit squeeze will go or for how long it will last. We do know it has just begun and it will get worse. To be making the call at this point in the game that the problems in credit markets are reflected in Merrils price IMHO is premature. 

Remember the first estimates of potential losses in a credit crunch are usually the kindest.


----------



## Bush Trader (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bush Trader said:


> Anyone prepared to bet that it dosen't hold 6000 points on the 4:15 close as the bounce trade exit for the night?




6013.6 - I was wrong.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here is an interesting chart. It's the 10 day average of gainers minus losers for the ASX. Because of XAO/XJO are so dominated by 10 or so Big Caps the charts don't always show the true momentum in the market.
As you can see on balance there has been more stocks going down than up since Mid April. After the melt down we had in February things never really got going again. Yes we had a snap back rally in most stocks but they soon stop rising as we continued to make new highs in the indexes. As you can see in the chart the momentum peaked on April the 16th then each push higher was with less and less stocks rising. Not only that each swing lower was making a lower low on the momentum chart while the XAO/XJO was rising

The period from the start of May to the meltdown last week was a *distribution* rather than another consolidation, IMO. The Divergence between this and the XAO is quite amazing. Since this chart peaked on the 16th of April the XAO continued to add some 280 points while broad momentum turned very negative. This was hidden in the XAO because of a select couple of Big caps holding up (BHP, RIO, CBA etc). As we now know the smart money have been selling with volume this market for a while now. What S$#+'s me is I used to keep track of this chart when I was Swing trading but as I now only intraday trade I let this one go.


----------



## Edwood (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

nice chart TH - looks as tho we could be near a bottom?

here's a longer term chart to put things in perspective, that weekly 50ma has acted pretty well as support in the past, wonder if it will hold now


----------



## juw177 (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Amazing chart TH and a sound analysis. How did you generate that?


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



juw177 said:


> Amazing chart TH and a sound analysis. How did you generate that?




Thanks juw177, 

I have a Database of all the EOD prices for the ASX. I can scan a query for most things after I stuff around with it for a while c: . I run a adv/dec query for each day and feed the results into a spreadsheet for the chart. I only use stocks with 3 letter codes just to eliminate a lot of the rubbish. Bit of stuffing around really but I think it always pays to look a bit deeper than a couple of standard charts.


----------



## wavepicker (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting information TH,  You can also get A/D ratio(Breadth) info at www.bigcharts.com  if you have use for this sort of info.

Whilst this is interesting information in that it gives you an idea that the market is slowing, that's all it does. Despite the momentum slowing this can be deceiving in that the market can hold up for quite a long time before moving in your desired direction of speculation. So how one goes about perfoming precision swing trades and timing  using such indicators and other lagging indicators in isolation is beyond me. Whilst I think that this is interesting information it could also be better utilized when used with other methods.  IMO the three most important factors in order are as follows:-

-Pattern
-TIME
-Price Level

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Whilst I think that this is interesting information it could also be better utilized when used with other methods.




Exactly. One chart does not make a good setup IMO too. That's why I use this one, the XAO/XJO and a whole heap of other stuff. Just another tool to dig into the market. 

Owning one shovel doesnt make you a tradesman.


----------



## Bushman (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> A couple of points:
> 
> I don't follow Merril Lynch. I have no idea if their current share price reflects it's intrinsic value. You've cited one analysts opinion who says the effect of the current credit crisis is already reflected in Merril's valuation.
> 
> ...




I am not commenting on Merril's performance? I was using it as an indicator for the financial sector. I agree - it is one broking houses opinion amongst all the other opinions. What stuck in my mind was that the valuation had an expectation of some credit fall out factored in the share price. 

I agree that the credit situation has a lot further to play out. However my point is that the market will start to factor that in to the share price.   If the situation deteriorates and further affects the overall liquidity of the market and consumer sentiment, then there will be further corrections. However that may lead to a reduction in US interest rates as Bernanke chooses to place a floor on the US markets at the expense of being an 'inflation fighter'. All idle speculation at the moment.  

For what it may be worth, I am still expecting a bumpy ride here and in the US over the next few weeks, a smoother September and then further volatility in October. As for longer term (1 to 5 yrs), I think global economic growth will be the winner as 2 billion Chinese and Indian consumers attempt to have what we have. It will be interesting to see how the Chinese autocracy deals with an increase in consumer might as well. After that - who cares? I will hopefully be living on an organic farm in the Byron Hinterland.    

Great chart TH. Very useful and informative tool. Would be more than interested to see it at the end of two weeks and then at the end of September.


----------



## Jadefox (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wavepicker,

I wonder if you'd mind recommending some learning material on pattern and time - perhaps your favourite book/course on elliot wave and the same on time/cycles?

I have some understanding of these but nowhere near deep enough.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Interesting information TH,  You can also get A/D ratio(Breadth) info at www.bigcharts.com  if you have use for this sort of info.
> 
> Whilst this is interesting information in that it gives you an idea that the market is slowing, that's all it does. Despite the momentum slowing this can be deceiving in that the market can hold up for quite a long time before moving in your desired direction of speculation. So how one goes about perfoming precision swing trades and timing  using such indicators and other lagging indicators in isolation is beyond me. Whilst I think that this is interesting information it could also be better utilized when used with other methods.  IMO the three most important factors in order are as follows:-
> 
> ...




Great Post WP,

the lagging issue is the main reason I have cut my reliance on indicators to a bear minimum as well. 

-Pattern
-TIME
-Price Level

excellent information there for anyone looking to take the next step in becoming a pure chartist.

good trading


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Great Post WP,
> 
> the lagging issue is the main reason I have cut my reliance on indicators to a bear minimum as well.
> 
> ...




Is divergence not a pattern?????

Is Indices making highs on less advancing stocks a lagging indicator????


----------



## wavepicker (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Is divergence not a pattern?????
> 
> Is Indices making highs on less advancing stocks a lagging indicator????




Thanks TI, just my 2c worth.  

I like you have been throught he "indicator phase" during the early stages of my trading and was severely dissapointed more often than not focusing more on the indicator  and thus trading the indicator and not price. Using lagging indicators is like chasing shadows across the wall.

Trending Hand,

Ofcourse advancing issues Vs declining issues is not a lagging indicator. I was actually referring more to the use of the 50 EMA and other lagging indicators

Having said that the advance/decline indicator is not a leading indicator either, but when used in combination with what you refer to as "idiot wave" and alongside volume analysis, it can be extremely helpful. But one needs a thorough understanding of these disciplines to understand what I am trying to say here. For example in a 3rd wave in many cases volume and breadth will be expanding, however one of the clues ON OCCASION of validating or even figuring out you are in a fifth wave(apart from pattern alone) is by this very indicator and volume. This is because the market "thins out" coming into a top as people only end up buying the good bluechips or "the ones they can depend on", which ultimately is a mistake also. There are better (more consistant) ways to validate a fifth wave I have learned long ago, but with regard to indices this is still one that can be used. 

As for a divergence being a pattern, sure. But let's look at it. It's a pattern of advancers vs decliners not of price, thus no cycles/time information can be interpreted from it, so for timing a trade it probably pretty poor, perceived divergences can easily unwind and be false signals especially in a strong bull market. Price patterns on the other hand can be symmetrical in terms of geometry and some instances certain types of shapes by their very structure can give you very valuable clues to the probabilities of certain types of pattern that may follow. Isn't the behaviour of price and the way markets move the best indicator of all?? The study of types of trends and patterns within the trends is the basis of succsfull trading. Once this is learned, then indicators might be used as a confirmation or validation .

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Thanks TI, just my 2c worth.
> 
> I like you have been throught he "indicator phase" during the early stages of my trading and was severely dissapointed more often than not focusing more on the indicator  and thus trading the indicator and not price. Using lagging indicators is like chasing shadows across the wall.
> 
> ...




Yep. I agree.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (7 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Is divergence not a pattern?????
> 
> Is Indices making highs on less advancing stocks a lagging indicator????




Dont take it personally TH no one is attacking you or your chart. I personally, at the moment have moved away from using indicators as my first port of call, I look at the pattern of the price action. CCI18 is a back up to my thoughts. In the very near future I will drop indicators all together. I used to use a MA + MACD cross over system. but I felt i could not see why things were about to happen I only saw it happing and after the most important time to act, which I am slowly strating to see now. This suits me more and is the path I am taking. Whatever works for u is great.

I personally agree with wavepicker i think his post is excellent, there is a whole new world out there away from indicators.

XAO

Yes I see divergance in the CCI now as well, that does not say it will break out all it says is in the last few periods there is alot of buying pressure.

Last Friday the cci told me to buy the XJO and that would have been a guaranteed stop out, but the price told me to stay out and on Friday night it fell. I did not know it would fall for sure but the action on the us and xjo warned me that it was not strong.

XAO cont:

Currently for this moment it looks like a base is being felt out. on the dow much more so, is this accumulation? I can not tell u that at this current time. What I can tell u is maybe this is a consolidation pattern to more selling or it may be a bottom time will tell. the indicators will only tell u what the current price action is telling them. Divergence is not a guarantee its only a guide to the possible.


----------



## theasxgorilla (8 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I feel compelled to chime in:

1. TH, I believe what you identified via AD vrs XAO analysis is a discrepancy caused by the market-cap weighting of the index.  BHP, RIO and until recently the financials leading the charge and pushing the index to new all-time-highs.

2. All, people who use indicators are not in technical analysis kindergarden.  It is not a forgone conclusion that the evolution of a technical trader is via simple tools like moving averages toward exotic technical analysis techniques like Elliott Wave or cycles analysis.  No one knows how the markets work, but at the core of every successful trader I bet you will find a belief that they have _something_ that works.  Belief in the paradigm is key, not necessarily the paradigm itself.  Many things work.  Some intellectuals can't believe that it can be simple so they find a complex paradigm through which to view the markets.

3. All, people who do not appropriate indicators like you do are not lesser traders.  I know two traders who appropriate the same toolset differently.  One is an intellectual, the other is a multi-millionaire and the person who developed the toolset they follow is dead.  Who does it the _right_ way?


----------



## wavepicker (8 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> I feel compelled to chime in:
> 
> 1. TH, I believe what you identified via AD vrs XAO analysis is a discrepancy caused by the market-cap weighting of the index.  BHP, RIO and until recently the financials leading the charge and pushing the index to new all-time-highs.
> 
> ...





Hello ASG,

Firstly there is no right or wrong toolset.  In the end it’s all up to your interpretation and then application.

I am basing my comments on my personal experiences using lagging indicators over the years. I have had very mixed messages from using such indicators like MA’s  and that is not to say I have completely abandoned such concepts as I still will use a MACD on occasion in combination with other methodologies. There are individuals that swear by the use of certain indicators and then there are those whom if you gave tomorrows newspaper still would not be able to trade profitably. Use what works for you CONSISTANTLY, for me I was unable to be consistent with such tools, and had more success and less distractions simply by looking at price.

Most traders using a simple MA’s for example don’t even know what the MA is representing, it’s strengths, its limitations, not to mention that they using it plain wrongly. An MA is probably the most useful indicator one can use if used correctly. Ask yourself what is an MA representing?? It’s representing the sum of the cycles greater than the span selected for that average. But there is a catch; the last data point for example in an MA is not representing the average of the span of the last X amount of price points. To do this one has to displace the average backward in time by the span/2 such that it’s in phase with price and now you have a leading indicator.

In terms of being simple, well that depends on the individual doesn’t it?? What is exotic about Gann or EW?? With EW for example it comes down to pattern recognition more than anything.  The key is to first learn about trends, types of trends and patterns as well as how markets move. This is paramount IMO.  Gann, EW, Cycles, time studies can then me integrated within this if one desires.

The market is a complex beast, and whether you use exotic/complex tools or even just simple ones such as a simple MA is up to personal preference. In the end it boils to deciding 3 things:-

-deciding when the market is trending
-participating in that trend
-recognizing when that trend is at risk of ending


Using an MA to determine this IMO just does not do the trick for me, especially when trading derivatives where TIMING is paramount. 


If I had to start all over again, I would just focus on price and the patterns of the trends. That is simplicity ASG

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey guys, be nice.
My Chart was just to show the problems with an index that is way to top heavy. I was not banging the table saying this is THE indicator we all must use. I thought it was just a good example of recent distribution more so than the XAO chart. Nothing more. 
For me it will always be each to his own. MAs, MACD, EW, Fundamentals, the Stars, Dart board, whatever. They will all work for someone.


----------



## steven1234 (8 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was expecting the market to tank today on news of an interest rate rise.  It looks like the rise was expected and factored into prior days trading.  

This makes the current "bargains" in the market look even better.


----------



## CFD (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ASX, TI, TH and WP

Congratulations on this latest friendly banter. By offering your views and not taking responses personally you have collectively provided some very interesting posts that have been most enlightening.


----------



## steven1234 (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Time for some conspiracy theories....

Speculation was that the correction was triggered by selling by hedge funds liquidating to pay up calls from lenders due to sub prime worries.  The hedge funds sold the good stocks as no one would buy the loans.  

This is where the conspiracy theory comes in.... There was lots of super money sitting on the side lines waiting to get into the market.  Now the funds are not stupid to plough it into the market prior to the end of financial year (immediately upon receipt).  They have waited until there was weakenss to buy in cheap, and to help this opportunity arise they have helped the correction occur by selling up to cause fear in traders.  Once the prices dropped they were the only ones buying shares on the way down.

Ie the current correction was an exageration caused by instutional investors who manipulated the market so they could park the super $$ they were holding as cash.  

Anyone think there may be some thruth to this conspiracy theory?


----------



## Trembling Hand (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



steven1234 said:


> Time for some conspiracy theories....
> 
> Speculation was that the correction was triggered by selling by hedge funds liquidating to pay up calls from lenders due to sub prime worries.  The hedge funds sold the good stocks as no one would buy the loans.
> 
> ...



If I had to choose between a Conspiracy i.e. Market Manipulation by the big boys the world over....

Or Stupidity i.e. too many ignoring a Fundamental problem (Credit Markets Imploding) and to many Long and leveraged in to few stocks to late in a run.

I will always take the stupidity as the cause.


----------



## CanOz (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CFD said:


> ASX, TI, TH and WP
> 
> Congratulations on this latest friendly banter. By offering your views and not taking responses personally you have collectively provided some very interesting posts that have been most enlightening.




I agree folks, i've really enoyed this.

Cheers,


----------



## insider (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's simply playing done by the big boys... The XAO fell more than the US markets yet it's an american problem with minimal exposure to the XAO... I think  people forgot that our biggest trading partner is China...


----------



## billhill (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				insider said:
			
		

> I think people forgot that our biggest trading partner is China...




Don't forget though insider that china's biggest trading partner is the US. If the US are buying less from china then china will buy less from us. I think the biggest concern regarding the subprime is that it sparks a US recession and that it flows on to everyone else.


----------



## insider (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



billhill said:


> Don't forget though insider that china's biggest trading partner is the US. If the US are buying less from china then china will buy less from us. I think the biggest concern regarding the subprime is that it sparks a US recession and that it flows on to everyone else.




I suppose, however it still doesn't justify XAO's sharper fall... The saying goes that when the US sneezes Australia catches a cold... This time it was more like  Influenxa type A... Lets put things into perspective and keep a closer eye on these things from now on as the walls are showing cracks which can only mean there's something wrong in the foundation...


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Originally Posted by tech/a
> I'm looking for a larger pattern here,than previous "corrections"
> So rather than a 3 wave I'm looking more at a 5 wave initial corrective move.




Seems to be on track.


----------



## nizar (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Seems to be on track.




Where to from here?
New highs or down or sideways in your opinion??


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Once wave 1 completes expect a wave 2 then 3 possibly a 5 wave wave B
in a 3 or 5 wave correction.
All this tellls us at the moment is that this is likely to be a longer corrective move than anything previous.
Lots of possiblilities could develope but until things are played out we cannot be definative.
However the corrective move is as expected (Well by me).


----------



## Kauri (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A good chance of it falling from this general area for mine.... 
  Cheers
...Kauri


----------



## CanOz (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was wondering if it was toast earlier today (6175)  Kauri, and then i heard about Europe...down she goes i reckon. This WAS the bounce!

I'm short the ASX 200 now...like to think i could hold it O/N this time...

Cheers,


----------



## numbercruncher (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> I was wondering if it was toast earlier today (6175)  Kauri, and then i heard about Europe...down she goes i reckon. This WAS the bounce!
> 
> I'm short the ASX 200 now...like to think i could hold it O/N this time...
> 
> Cheers,






Nice work, you should do well, Ill barrack for you tomorrow (>:


----------



## insider (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yep the European markets are copping a slapping... Do you know what time it is? It's not Peanut Butter Jelly Time ! :bananasmi It's time for more falls


----------



## Kauri (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> I was wondering if it was toast earlier today (6175) Kauri, and then i heard about Europe...down she goes i reckon. This WAS the bounce!
> 
> I'm short the ASX 200 now...like to think i could hold it O/N this time...
> 
> Cheers,




  Good one Cannie.... everything I use points *initially* to about the 5600 mark ...  
  Cheers
...Kauri


----------



## numbercruncher (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Retailers weighed in with monthly sales results and some reports were likely to only further sour Wall Street's mood.
> 
> Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. said its same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, fell 4.6 percent in July, rather than rising 3.2 percent as Wall Street had predicted. Same-store sales are regarded as a key measure of a retailer's health.
> 
> ...




http://http://www.mercurynews.com/markets/ci_6581316?nclick_check=1


Ahh its finally all working through to retailers ......

One step closer to game on!


----------



## countryboy (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dow futures down by over 100 pts was as much 190 pts friday we could be in for another hit


----------



## chops_a_must (9 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> http://http://www.mercurynews.com/markets/ci_6581316?nclick_check=1
> 
> 
> Ahh its finally all working through to retailers ......
> ...




Yep. If anyone needed more proof as to the closeness of the US to recession, it's right here with neon lights flashing around it.


----------



## CanOz (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL! From CNBC a few moments ago:



> "The investors are like deer in the headlights," said David Dietz, chief investment strategist at Point View Financial Services. "Those initial hopes going back a couple of months that the subprime crisis could be contained in terms of asset class and geographically are completely off the table.  As a result, investors are left scratching their heads."




Gotta love CASH....thining about moving some into the Chinese market.


----------



## powerkoala (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

oh I really hate this now.
bounce 3 days and then got wipe again back to the fall.
what the heck is happening?
FED comments is comforting, RBA seems encouraging, EUROPE got hammered, and we back falling apart. 
Does any Reserved Bank out there can help to solve this subprime mortgage problems?


----------



## wayneL (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> Does any Reserved Bank out there can help to solve this subprime mortgage problems?



They caused it!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## ducati916 (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Volatility*


Risk had been severely underpriced, as it reprices, expect more of the same.
We had a pretty wild open just now as the financials dropped the shoe they'd just picked up.

jog on
d998


----------



## insider (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How low can it go? 5600 here we come


----------



## dhukka (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> oh I really hate this now.
> bounce 3 days and then got wipe again back to the fall.
> what the heck is happening?
> FED comments is comforting, RBA seems encouraging, EUROPE got hammered, and we back falling apart.
> Does any Reserved Bank out there can help to solve this subprime mortgage problems?




Rather than solve the problem the Federal Reserve Bank in large part created the problem. The damage has been done.


----------



## UPKA (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Rather than solve the problem the Federal Reserve Bank in large part created the problem. The damage has been done.




they created the problem, and they also didnt address the market of the issue. so now we have investors facing uncertainty, any bad news big or small will trigger a sell off! there r no economic news coming out of US this few weeks, so rough times r still ahead!


----------



## >Apocalypto< (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> oh I really hate this now.
> bounce 3 days and then got wipe again back to the fall.
> what the heck is happening?
> FED comments is comforting, RBA seems encouraging, EUROPE got hammered, and we back falling apart.
> Does any Reserved Bank out there can help to solve this subprime mortgage problems?




this is now worse then may06 in regards to buyer traps, the way it has been rising  then sold off in massive chunks.

Power, I hear you, the only advice I can tell you is to sit out of the markets if your a short to medium term trader and really wait for confirmation before buying back in. 

trading 10-4 markets at the moment is a real death trap on the long side. I was looking for another red day to confirm a higher low but at presesnt there is way to much emotion in the markets, with the vertical rallies and vertical sell downs.

It's a time to sit on the lines and wait. 

Good trading.


----------



## powerkoala (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> this is now worse then may06 in regards to buyer traps, the way it has been rising  then sold off in massive chunks.
> 
> Power, I hear you, the only advice I can tell you is to sit out of the markets if your a short to medium term trader and really wait for confirmation before buying back in.
> 
> ...




yeah, i did sit back for days and seeing market rebound still not entering.
the second rebound made me think, is it already the time to jump in?
and now i got trapped again. thought the FED comment and RBA were strong enough to put the market back on bull track. i guess i was completely wrong. 
looking at chart and volume didn't help at all against bad news. still many things to learn. 3 years trading still not enough. jeez.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> yeah, i did sit back for days and seeing market rebound still not entering.
> the second rebound made me think, is it already the time to jump in?
> and now i got trapped again. thought the FED comment and RBA were strong enough to put the market back on bull track. i guess i was completely wrong.
> looking at chart and volume didn't help at all against bad news. still many things to learn. 3 years trading still not enough. jeez.




Don't beat yourself up about it Power as I am sure there are many in your position this morning. for the next time look for a test of the new rally to confirm that there is strong demand to soak up the new weakness if that forms a higher low that can be good confirmation. but its not a gimie by any means.

when markets are in the situation like they are now its very difficult to determine if its a new trend or not. there is so much emotion in the markets now, makes them act in very wild state as people are buying up big for what they think are bargins, while others dump in fear. Hence the vertical angles of the rises and falls. ( that is my own opinion, not sure if it's 100% accurate).

Three years or 15 years does not make a difference, mistakes can be made by any one, I hope it did not hit you to hard. Good trading Power


----------



## insider (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm dumping everything today... I'm selling MTN and CTS at discounted prices so if your interested you know where to find me...


----------



## powerkoala (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

thanks a lot for your supports, guys.
i really love this forum.
cheers


----------



## motion (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> I'm dumping everything today... I'm selling MTN and CTS at discounted prices so if your interested you know where to find me...




Insider having never been through a correction. do you personally think it's better to take a loss now or ride out the correction ? 

I know you can not comment on my position but I'm just interested as you are dumping everything..

The companies I hold for me a long term and I see them as having a loss in today’s market but a gain in the future.. but maybe the money is better in the pocket at the moment... Just interested in your thoughts on why you are dumping all ?

Thanks


----------



## Temjin (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What a drop! I finally had to fax the forms and get my managed funds out. Even though they are in for the long term, I am still too uncertain about the futures. The cash can be better utilised elsewhere for now.


----------



## Julia (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> What a drop! I finally had to fax the forms and get my managed funds out. Even though they are in for the long term, I am still too uncertain about the futures. The cash can be better utilised elsewhere for now.




Aren't you contradicting yourself here, Temjin?
You say "they are in for the long term" but you are pulling everything out?
Presumably if you have selected a managed fund for the long term you would have expected there were going to be times like this when your holdings will take a dive before recovering?
Is there a fee for withdrawing from  your managed fund?


----------



## Sean K (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motion said:


> Insider having never been through a correction. do you personally think it's better to take a loss now or ride out the correction ?
> 
> I know you can not comment on my position but I'm just interested as you are dumping everything..
> 
> ...



Fair question and points motion. One thing gained in the short term by unloading is peace of mind. Not sure how you put a dollar figure on that. Even those who have been through significant corrections before still feel it. It's hard not to be emotional about it as an investor. While we're in the middle of it, with all the emotion which causes the volatility, it's very hard to see what's out the other side. And in this particular case, the bears seem to have some good arguments for the destruction of the universe, which doesn't help!  Not saying dumping is the right or wrong thing to do, just a general comment.


----------



## insider (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motion said:


> Insider having never been through a correction. do you personally think it's better to take a loss now or ride out the correction ?
> 
> I know you can not comment on my position but I'm just interested as you are dumping everything..
> 
> ...




The companies I invest in are purely speculative... High return High Risk... They are also Uranium... That's doing crappy at the moment.... The Market is positioned to go lower... There are so many good reasons to run for the door... I was stupid enough to hold on for this long as it is my third correction but I missed the greatest portion of opportunity to get out while I was finishing up at UNI ... I was trying to get 50% CGT Now I have no Excuse as it is all gone... I still have CTS though


----------



## insider (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Fair question and points motion. One thing gained in the short term by unloading is peace of mind. Not sure how you put a dollar figure on that. Even those who have been through significant corrections before still feel it. It's hard not to be emotional about it as an investor. While we're in the middle of it, with all the emotion which causes the volatility, it's very hard to see what's out the other side. And in this particular case, the bears seem to have some good arguments for the destruction of the universe, which doesn't help!  Not saying dumping is the right or wrong thing to do, just a general comment.




Hey Kennas You were right when you told me that 50% CGT is for chumps...


----------



## juw177 (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> Hey Kennas You were right when you told me that 50% CGT is for chumps...




What is wrong with 1 year holds (not that I am planning to do something like that anytime soon). The tax can make 20% difference in profit.

With hindsight it is easy to say that. You are only a chump if you plan to trade short term initially and when you start losing, you change your outlook to a 1 year investment.


----------



## Bush Trader (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motion said:


> Insider having never been through a correction. do you personally think it's better to take a loss now or ride out the correction ?
> 
> I know you can not comment on my position but I'm just interested as you are dumping everything..
> 
> ...




Depends how your invested, and how long you've held for.  The avearge size of your hold etc.  Just remember you will have friction cost associated with getting in and out with each hold (brokerage).  Factor this in as a percentage of each position, what will it cost you to get out and then back in. Are you leveraged in your positions?  Are you exposed to small caps or finiancials.  Remember with so much volitility if your that nervous about the job long term then there will be a better day than to today to get out, choose an upswing, such as yesterday.  I think we are going to see big swings either way for quite some time, good for the day traders perhaps.


Good luck


BT


----------



## Temjin (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Julia said:


> Aren't you contradicting yourself here, Temjin?
> You say "they are in for the long term" but you are pulling everything out?
> Presumably if you have selected a managed fund for the long term you would have expected there were going to be times like this when your holdings will take a dive before recovering?
> Is there a fee for withdrawing from your managed fund?




Not necessary. The portfolio is in for the long term, but why would I want to continue to hold a losing position if my view on the equity market is bear for the short term? There is no such thing as "long term investing", only "long term trading". Cutting lose short and then invest the cash back in other performing, non-equities asset is a better alternative at the moment. 

The only fee for withdrawing those funds right now is the 0.6% spread.


----------



## insider (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



juw177 said:


> What is wrong with 1 year holds (not that I am planning to do something like that anytime soon). The tax can make 20% difference in profit.
> 
> With hindsight it is easy to say that. You are only a chump if you plan to trade short term initially and when you start losing, you change your outlook to a 1 year investment.




No way... If you play the correction properly you will make more than enough money to pay for the tax difference...


----------



## Julia (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> There is no such thing as "long term investing", only "long term trading".




Really?


----------



## motion (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Fair question and points motion. One thing gained in the short term by unloading is peace of mind. Not sure how you put a dollar figure on that. Even those who have been through significant corrections before still feel it. It's hard not to be emotional about it as an investor. While we're in the middle of it, with all the emotion which causes the volatility, it's very hard to see what's out the other side. And in this particular case, the bears seem to have some good arguments for the destruction of the universe, which doesn't help!  Not saying dumping is the right or wrong thing to do, just a general comment.




Thank you kennas, you are correct peace of mind with the cash in the pocket. I have to agree with the emotional part as this is the part I really have trouble with, as I always think things will go back to  the prices they are and I have learnt sometime they do and sometimes not... 

Thank you for your comments.




			
				insider said:
			
		

> The companies I invest in are purely speculative... High return High Risk... They are also Uranium... That's doing crappy at the moment.... The Market is positioned to go lower... There are so many good reasons to run for the door... I was stupid enough to hold on for this long as it is my third correction but I missed the greatest portion of opportunity to get out while I was finishing up at UNI ... I was trying to get 50% CGT Now I have no Excuse as it is all gone... I still have CTS though .




insider thank you for your comments, I'm still new at share trading and it's hard to understand what to do sometimes when being placed in this position, emotions run wild and money just runs out the door in a blink of an eye.


----------



## jtb (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Motion,

Depends on what your stocks are and how confident you are in them?
Can you do without the money for a few months?
Are you going to take a belting (>50%) or are you only down 20%?

I've been through half a dozen good gut churners and as you would have seen in the swings lately and earlier this year and in the past what goes down does come up

If your company has a couple of years worth of cash, isn't a mega speccie with 1% chance of success and good assets I believe it pays to just kick back and go away (from the screen) for a while.


Just remember next time you can say you've experienced a correction.

Bear down mate and put it down to experience


----------



## >Apocalypto< (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> There is no such thing as "long term investing", only "long term trading"




that is one of the dumbest calls i have heard. From a person that preaches so much knowledge about trading and systems and what it takes to become a great trader, how can u make that statement. Investing and trading are two very different approaches to making money from the markets. Each have there own advantages and disadvantages, require different timing strategies. 

Temjin I advise you get some more real life market experience. Welcome to the real world!


----------



## dj_420 (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jtb said:


> Motion,
> 
> Depends on what your stocks are and how confident you are in them?
> Can you do without the money for a few months?
> ...




i agree with that

ive sold my short termers - which were speculative at best and held onto a select few which i believe will benefit out the other side, such as PDN, GBG and JML.

also looking to get back into AED oil. JML, PDN producing now, GBG to be producing next year along with AED. so although have taken a belting on those long i am long term with those so prepared to weather some short term pain for long term gain.

cut UMC loose over last couple months for 200% profits, now well down from point at which i sold at.


----------



## powerkoala (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> that is one of the dumbest calls i have heard. From a person that preaches so much knowledge about trading and systems and what it takes to become a great trader, how can u make that statement. Investing and trading are two very different approaches to making money from the markets. Each have there own advantages and disadvantages, require different timing strategies.
> 
> Temjin I advise you get some more real life market experience. Welcome to the real world!




well, maybe he/she is confusing enough with all the bloody red on the screen, and can't see the different of those two words.
LOL


----------



## Temjin (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> that is one of the dumbest calls i have heard. From a person that preaches so much knowledge about trading and systems and what it takes to become a great trader, how can u make that statement. Investing and trading are two very different approaches to making money from the markets. Each have there own advantages and disadvantages, require different timing strategies.
> 
> Temjin I advise you get some more real life market experience. Welcome to the real world!




Well, that's my own belief Trade_It.

I understand investing and trading are two very different approaches. How about I reword this, I don't believe in the term "long term investing" because I never liked the idea of invest, diversify and then sit on it without doing anything regardless of the market condition for the long term.

I have an exit plan when I "invest" for the long term. I exit my positions if my original assumptions are wrong, that is, the market is no longer bull for the short term and there are too much uncertaintely in the market. Of course, I may be wrong in this, but I am just exercising my own plan I have had in mind. 

My definition of long term trading is one may invest for the long term but he/she is always better off to have a proven plan (you can call it investing/trading/whatever) to enter or exit the market whenever deemed necessary to profit and cut losses short. 

What's the difference between investing and long term trend trading anyway? (long term as in years) 

That is why when people say they invest for the long term, and they exercise trading techniques (sell, wait for correction, go back in again later with fundamental confirmation), are essentially long term trading.

Hope that clears up things a bit. Of course, you may have your own belief in the definition of investing and trading. To me, only trading make senses because everyone does it subconsiously anyway, though not necessary in a disciplined way and with a plan.


----------



## motion (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jtb said:


> Motion,
> 
> Depends on what your stocks are and how confident you are in them?
> Can you do without the money for a few months?
> ...




jtb thank you for your comments and looking at this like this is an excellent way for myself to view my portfolio. I see my stocks as having either one of those qualities and some having all...  I think this is a good lesson and can only make me wiser. Thanks 



			
				Bush trader said:
			
		

> Depends how your invested, and how long you've held for. The avearge size of your hold etc. Just remember you will have friction cost associated with getting in and out with each hold (brokerage). Factor this in as a percentage of each position, what will it cost you to get out and then back in. Are you leveraged in your positions? Are you exposed to small caps or finiancials. Remember with so much volitility if your that nervous about the job long term then there will be a better day than to today to get out, choose an upswing, such as yesterday. I think we are going to see big swings either way for quite some time, good for the day traders perhaps.
> 
> 
> Good luck




Bush Trader, thank you for your comments, yep I learnt that lesson the hardware and now factor the friction in no matter what. You have some very good points here. time to sit back and take it all in. =


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lots of post on here today. I wounder if that's because everyone is now in cash? Nothing to do? Not buying not selling?


----------



## >Apocalypto< (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> Well, that's my own belief Trade_It.
> 
> I understand investing and trading are two very different approaches. How about I reword this, I don't believe in the term "long term investing" because I never liked the idea of invest, diversify and then sit on it without doing anything regardless of the market condition for the long term.
> 
> ...




I see your points.

You are talking about having a plan which every Investor / Trader should have.

Investors that do not have a plan and buy in with hope and nothing more, are gamblers in opinion.

There is a chapter in Market wizards on David Ryan - Investment as a treasure hunt. That really defines what investing is all about. It also shows with the right plan and approach how financially rewarding long term investing can be.

Good trading.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Lots of post on here today. I wounder if that's because everyone is now in cash? Nothing to do? Not buying not selling?




Temjin,

One of my observations is when ever we have a sell off or correction the thread heats up and once the market stabilizes it quietens down.


----------



## Temjin (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Temjin,
> 
> One of my observations is when ever we have a sell off or correction the thread heats up and once the market stabilizes it quietens down.




Heh, doesn't that explains alot already? Cos a massive sell off or correction is exciting or alarming (dependant on one's current position) and obviously attract people coming in here to look for other opinions. 

It's important that everyone should be responsible for themselves and don't take anyone else opinion here without consulting YOURSELF first.

If you made a mistake, then learn from it and try again later. If you made the right decision, then also learn from it and try to do it again next time.

Do anyone else notice a change in their general "atmosphere" in your own office? (if u are working) You can obviously tell certain people are fairly paranoid or stressed at the moment. At the end of the day, it's always good to have a plan because it detachs you emotionally from being one of them.

Going way off topic anyway.

My opinion is that there are just too much uncertainly going on right fundamentally wise right now. I have not seen anyone who could give a definite answer on how all this credit bubble will affect the rest of the market or even down to the individual companies. While the politicans say it's all ok and encourage everyone that everything will be fine because we have a strong economy, the economists/seasoned investors will say the credit market may be worse than expected and have already started affecting other industries. (with problems still hidden from the general public) 

So what I am going to do is to listen to my own technical reasons and take a cash position regardless of the fundamentals for now. 

(P.S: and no, I'm not day trading the equity market right now, and don't plan to do so for this particular occasion yet)


----------



## CanOz (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Lots of post on here today. I wounder if that's because everyone is now in cash? Nothing to do? Not buying not selling?





This is the time to be trading indices in my view. Other than that i haven't even had time to short individual stocks.

Cheers,


----------



## tcoates (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> One of my observations is when ever we have a sell off or correction the thread heats up and once the market stabilizes it quietens down.




The makings of a new indicator.

Tim


----------



## dhukka (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> There is no such thing as "long term investing", only "long term trading".




Where to start with this stunningly ignorant assertion. A long term investor does not worry about market dips, corrections or crashes, hence why they are called long term investors. They do not mind seeing 10, 20 or 30% share price drops. In fact such market pullbacks afford them the opportunity to load up on more of their chosen stocks. 

They are not interested in trying to time their entry and exit levels perfectly. If they have purchased companies with good economics at reasonable prices there is no reason to worry. 

Although we shouldn't be too hard on Temjin without people like him it would be more difficult to make money.


----------



## CanOz (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Where to start with this stunningly ignorant assertion. A long term investor does not worry about market dips, corrections or crashes, hence why they are called long term investors. They do not mind seeing 10, 20 or 30% share price drops. In fact such market pullbacks afford them the opportunity to load up on more of their chosen stocks.
> 
> They are not interested in trying to time their entry and exit levels perfectly. If they have purchased companies with good economics at reasonable prices there is no reason to worry.
> 
> Although we shouldn't be too hard on Temjin without people like him it would be more difficult to make money.





Everyday the market drops adds another bunch of long term investors!

Cheers,


----------



## insider (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Where to start with this stunningly ignorant assertion. A long term investor does not worry about market dips, corrections or crashes, hence why they are called long term investors. They do not mind seeing 10, 20 or 30% share price drops. In fact such market pullbacks afford them the opportunity to load up on more of their chosen stocks.
> 
> They are not interested in trying to time their entry and exit levels perfectly. If they have purchased companies with good economics at reasonable prices there is no reason to worry.
> 
> Although we shouldn't be too hard on Temjin without people like him it would be more difficult to make money.




I think you need to read between the lines... He was maybe trying to say that in the end people only look out for their wallets and really don't care about the company they invest just as long as they make them money...


----------



## Temjin (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ahhhh, it doesn't matter.  You have your own beliefs on how to make money in the market and I have my. You can invest for the long term and buy more when it is at the bottom of a correction because you believe in the fundamentals of the companies. And I can trade for the long term and exit when a correction occur and buy back when the trend resume. 

At the end of the day, don't we all invest or trade for the same reason, and that is to make money? 

The differences between us is we have our own individual style, you play on fundamentals, I play on technicals.

P.S: I didn't expect this long term trading and investing would evoke such a reaction from some of you. How about we just do our own ways and get along? Not to mention get back to the thread topic.


----------



## Awesomandy (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Everyday the market drops adds another bunch of long term investors!




That is very true. A friend of mine is now an ultra-long-term "investor", having lost at least 15% of his money in the past half a year. 

I think I'm a bit of both... I have a portfolio that I'm going to hold for a long time - they are ones which I'm interested in the long term capital growth, and I won't sell them unless there are major changes in the economic conditions and/or the fundamentals of the companies.

I also have some money allocated for short term opportunities, mostly speculative buys/sells.

I've closed out of everything in the short term portfolio for quite some time now, and I've even sold some of the long term stocks as it now appears that the credit bubble is bursting.


----------



## tcoates (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Settle down peoples. Its only a discussion. A nice simple explanation can be found here -

http://www.qwoter.com/college/Trading-Basics/Investor_vs_Trader.html

Regardless, people who use fundamentals (investors) _may_ also look at a chart (and maybe technicals) to better time their entry. 

Tim


----------



## >Apocalypto< (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> Ahhhh, it doesn't matter.  You have your own beliefs on how to make money in the market and I have my. You can invest for the long term and buy more when it is at the bottom of a correction because you believe in the fundamentals of the companies. And I can trade for the long term and exit when a correction occur and buy back when the trend resume.
> 
> At the end of the day, don't we all invest or trade for the same reason, and that is to make money?
> 
> The differences between us is we have our own individual style, you play on fundamentals, I play on technicals.




Temjin,

I understand what points your making.

Some long term investors are hope junkies they hold and hold and hold thinking its gunna go up its gunna go up.

Little do they realize they bought in at the top of the bull market and it may take 5-10 years to get there money back. If they bought blue chips lots of penny dreadfuls drop off the board in bear campaign's, that is a stupid waste of time and money. but the smart astute long term investors see the bottom buy in at acumilation patterns and take the whole whack of the bull run sell just after the top and make a killer% they do not need to worry about all the minor ups and downs they use the bigger ones as adding points. they also enjoy a much more relaxed trading experience. But I am like most I love the rushes!

*I would advise any one wanting to see what long term investing is all about, read chapter in Market wizards on David Ryan - Investment as a treasure hunt.*

Really changed my opinion about long term investing.


----------



## Julia (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Temjin,
> 
> Little do they realize they bought in at the top of the bull market and it may take 5-10 years to get there money back. If they bought blue chips lots of penny dreadfuls drop off the board in bear campaign's, that is a stupid waste of time and money. but the smart astute long term investors see the bottom buy in at acumilation patterns and take the whole whack of the bull run sell just after the top and make a killer% they do not need to worry about all the minor ups and downs they use the bigger ones as adding points



Could you clarify your second sentence above?  i.e. "if they bought blue chips lots of penny dreadfuls drop off the board in bear campaigns...."
Sorry, but I'm really not able to make sense of what you have said.


----------



## juw177 (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoaates_au said:


> Settle down peoples. Its only a discussion. A nice simple explanation can be found here -
> 
> http://www.qwoter.com/college/Trading-Basics/Investor_vs_Trader.html




Gee, they just ripped a page out of Michael Covel's book and turned it into an advertisement.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Julia said:


> Could you clarify your second sentence above?  i.e. "if they bought blue chips lots of penny dreadfuls drop off the board in bear campaigns...."
> Sorry, but I'm really not able to make sense of what you have said.




No worries Julia I wrote it in a hurry.


Only if they bought blue chips, lots of penny dreadfuls drop off the board in bear campains...."


More on that, don't get me wrong blue chips bite the dust as well eg Enron.

My point is: if you buy in the top of a bull market and the stocks you own are all .10 - 1.20 stocks

Be very careful applying the old buy and hold strategy as a lot of these penny dreadfuls can fall of the boards in bear markets. 

Hope that makes sense Julia.


----------



## Temjin (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> *I would advise any one wanting to see what long term investing is all about, read chapter in Market wizards on David Ryan - Investment as a treasure hunt.*
> 
> Really changed my opinion about long term investing.




Understood Trade_It. I will reread that chapter again cos I have already read all of the Market Wizards. Just some wizards catch my attention (and suit my style) more than others. 

Again, you can only trade/invest what you believe in. Hell, even some people may find day trading more "comfortable and relaxed" than others. 



			
				tcoaates_au said:
			
		

> Settle down peoples. Its only a discussion. A nice simple explanation can be found here -
> 
> http://www.qwoter.com/college/Tradin...vs_Trader.html




Make sense to me.


----------



## insider (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Do you hear that? That's the sound of a 222 point drop... it's so quiet now... I wonder if the Yank Markets are going to tank tonight?


----------



## powerkoala (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> Do you hear that? That's the sound of a 222 point drop... it's so quiet now... I wonder if the Yank Markets are going to tank tonight?




dow pre market already tank -82 points..
so expect no mercy


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> dow pre market already tank -82 points..
> so expect no mercy




Perfect. If it opens up you will just get people shorting the open. Best start will be a down open then a slow squeeze higher.


----------



## powerkoala (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Perfect. If it opens up you will just get people shorting the open. Best start will be a down open then a slow squeeze higher.




perfect only if you have cash left. 
if not, just watching the bloody red screen.
better turn it off and sleep:


----------



## juw177 (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wait up Dow Jones!


----------



## Awesomandy (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The ftse is down another 110 points as we speak, so good luck to those shorting.


----------



## Pommiegranite (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> The ftse is down another 110 points as we speak, so good luck to those shorting.





That was expected as Europe closed while the Dow was still halfway down the slide last night.


----------



## springhill (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What does this say about the Aussie investor psyche when we cant follow the US lead upwards? In that i mean any gains they have made in the last 2 weeks our market has only followed say 60-70% of their lead, but we are more than happy to follow their trends downwards in percentage terms outstripping their leads by a good 10-20%. Severe lack of confidence in the US. Are we all just awaiting the crash? Are we that piss weak that as soon as our investments fall a few dollars we run screaming for the hills? Discuss


----------



## powerkoala (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

massive lost on europe market and pre market of dow jones.
almost 3% on every market in europe.
pre market already -170.
jeez.. 
look this problem will be around for a while.
5600 for XAO ?
if this keep going, maybe 5400 or even back to 4800.
reserve banks action around the world really make investor worried.


----------



## numbercruncher (10 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



springhill said:


> What does this say about the Aussie investor psyche when we cant follow the US lead upwards? In that i mean any gains they have made in the last 2 weeks our market has only followed say 60-70% of their lead, but we are more than happy to follow their trends downwards in percentage terms outstripping their leads by a good 10-20%. Severe lack of confidence in the US. Are we all just awaiting the crash? Are we that piss weak that as soon as our investments fall a few dollars we run screaming for the hills? Discuss




Maybe Aussie investors are more Informed and Realistic than there American cousins?

Perhaps we are accepting in the fact that our current enormous prosperity is commodoties driven and completely dependant on exports, and that if there is a downturn in demand things could get Bad pretty quick.

The repricing of risk is happening quickly, I wonder if this will be followed by a repricing of assets, seems a logical conclusion .........


----------



## theasxgorilla (11 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



springhill said:


> What does this say about the Aussie investor psyche when we cant follow the US lead upwards? In that i mean any gains they have made in the last 2 weeks our market has only followed say 60-70% of their lead, but we are more than happy to follow their trends downwards in percentage terms outstripping their leads by a good 10-20%.




I don't think you can read that much into it.  Different markets, different overall capitalisation, different overall liquidity levels, different sector sizes.

If I was to read anything into Aussie psyche I would suggest that in spite of being renowned as a bunch of gamblers we're a  lot more cautious and a lot less _blinkers-on_ bullish (read: sceptical) than some of the muppets (to borrow WayneL's terminology) in the US.


----------



## Edwood (11 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

SPI put in a new low then made a big reversal o/night - could be wave 1 / A down complete - Monday for an up day


----------



## Bush Trader (11 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> SPI put in a new low then made a big reversal o/night - could be wave 1 / A down complete - Monday for an up day




Would you like to post a chart?

Thanks

BT


----------



## wavepicker (11 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just thinking of some possible outcomes here.  There might be some possible support here. I saw support before last week but it only led to a temporary rally. The market should open weaker on Monday and then start this rally. Only problem is, will this be a very small rally to aproximately the lower major purple wave 2 and the market continues bearishly into a 3rd wave or will it be a more substantial rally at approximately the higher purple wave 2 and a higher point than the last rally we had??
  I feel that the market has to make a more substantial rally first before moving down hard again. Just my thoughts though, and the market wil do what it likes in the end


----------



## CFD (11 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> ~~
> the market wil do what it likes in the end




Yes and in the process it will have those EW lines fannying about all over the place. :  Between not knowing where to put a line until after the event and then not knowing what line it is until after another event, it's in a realm of its own. 

To make sense of it as WP does and then being able to summarise it so, requires a high level of skill and dedication. 

Just my strange way of saying I appreciate your posts WP, didn't know whether to post this or not, hope it's taken the right way.


----------



## wavepicker (11 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CFD said:


> Yes and in the process it will have those EW lines fannying about all over the place. :  Between not knowing where to put a line until after the event and then not knowing what line it is until after another event, it's in a realm of its own.
> 
> To make sense of it as WP does and then being able to summarise it so, requires a high level of skill and dedication.
> 
> Just my strange way of saying I appreciate your posts WP, didn't know whether to post this or not, hope it's taken the right way.





No worries CFD,

Just tossing up some possible scenarios here,  there is nothing high probability here, if there was I would have said so.

Have not taken any trades based on what is posted on these charts, will see how it trades early next week.


----------



## CanOz (11 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> No worries CFD,
> 
> Just tossing up some possible scenarios here,  there is nothing high probability here, if there was I would have said so.
> 
> Have not taken any trades based on what is posted on these charts, will see how it trades early next week.





Thanks WP for the post, i got stopped out of a couple WallSt. Index CFD trades last nite and the last one was the reversal. I would like to think we could pick the end of the next little rally too, its quite profitable to get in on those inital moves down!

Cheers,


----------



## chops_a_must (11 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> No worries CFD,
> 
> Just tossing up some possible scenarios here,  there is nothing high probability here, if there was I would have said so.
> 
> Have not taken any trades based on what is posted on these charts, will see how it trades early next week.




I agree with your postulations here. Friday smacked of a semi exhaustion.

Another rally into another dive would create havoc and panic. I don't think dip buyers are out, but another dive would surely shake them out, get rid of all short term buying support and lead to that large W3 down. The next move down is going to be especially nasty after central banks having pulled out all stops to prop markets up.


----------



## Edwood (11 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

yep thats the count I'm looking at wavepicker, similar on FTSE fwiw



wavepicker said:


> There might be some possible support here....




SPI bounced off the 5,830 area o/night, up to 5,970's so Monday could see a short covering rally



wavepicker said:


> Only problem is, will this be a very small rally to aproximately the lower major purple wave 2 and the market continues bearishly into a 3rd wave or will it be a more substantial rally at approximately the higher purple wave 2 and a higher point than the last rally we had??
> I feel that the market has to make a more substantial rally first before moving down hard again. Just my thoughts though, and the market wil do what it likes in the end




plenty of pumping going on and we're into summer holiday season in the US and Europe so volumes should be down.  I think its options expiry this week too


----------



## wavepicker (11 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> yep thats the count I'm looking at wavepicker, similar on FTSE fwiw
> 
> 
> 
> ...




 It was an execllent pattern and time point in the SP500 that signalled the down move 3 weeks ago. If we are in a bear market, I hope we get just as good a pattern to signal the lower high up.

There are varying opinions around the place from financial commentators. Some say this is still bullish and some say it's a bearmarket. All the more reason for one to stick to his own analysis. I tend to believe that the probabilities favour this as the early stages of a bear. How high it too high in the market and how low is too low?? Can we actually measure the market to answer these questions and say that probabilities favour a bear market??

The following chart is of the XAO monthly bars. It can be seen that 3  long term cycles below( I should note there are theoretically infinite number of cycles in the market however), 14Month, 28 Month and 57 Month, have exhibited gentle sine wave like behaviour for the last 20 odd years. THE MARKET MOVES IN CYCLES. After everyone of these cycles has topped it then moves below the zero line. Then we have had this very high amplitude move this last 4 years. This shows that this current bullmarket is an abberation like 1987 was, but even worse. This chart was created(4/07/07 )before the market moved down,  as you can see all this cycles were mature and cresting. 

So if we take the largest of these cycles the 57 month, it's good 1000 pt drop from +800 peak to -200(the low of the last oscillation). Now add the moves of the smaller cycles as well, the 28 month and 14 Month and this is even bigger. This implies a move back to 4450!!  

Now this does imply timing, it's only an observation. There is no certainty here, just like any form of analysis it is open to interpretation, but based on these charts, if the market has not topped, when it does, it looks like a long way down! But cetainly these 3 cycles look very mature and appear to have crested and are pointed hard down. Gravity will not be defied.

Cheers


----------



## steven1234 (12 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On the XJO chart it looks like the 200 day moving average is providing support.  Every time it has dropped under it looks like bargain hunters jumped into the market.    

The XAO is yet to drop under the 200 day moving average.  

I will start getting worried when both indexes close under the 200 day moving averages.  Which close below do you guys think is more critical to the overall market sentiment, XJO or XAO?  

So far i have used the 200 day moving average as an indicatior of when bargains are available, ie when the market will turn.  So far so good as it has resulted in profitable trades (eg i bought JML on monday at 1.20, on thursday it was up 17.5% on my purchase price and on friday it was still up 8.3%.)


----------



## insider (12 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey wave picker if you don't mind me asking where do you get these cool graphs from?


----------



## wavepicker (12 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> Hey wave picker if you don't mind me asking where do you get these cool graphs from?




In this instance I did them in excel. If you are going to do this sort of analysis then either of the following would be most suitable:-

-amibroker
-weathlab
-XL Analyzer

Cheers


----------



## insider (12 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks wave picker...

How do you all think tomorrow will go in terms of the XAO? will it go down or will it go up?

The reason why I ask is because I've noticed that easy access market information like The Herald Sun News paper or television seem to have a positive view that markets will recover soon and everything is cheap so buy up! whilst harder to get reports seem to be bearish contradicting the other info. 

What are your thoughts? I guess we will see who is telling the truth...

My opinion is the harder to find info is more accurate but that's my opinion...


----------



## steven1234 (12 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well if all the smh readers belive there are bargains to be had, we should see an up day.  Something to do with lemmings theory...

I personally am of the view that the aussie market has overreacted, and likewuse the US overreacted to news from the french bank and so on and so on.  On the day the French bank frose the funds, the french index almost held steady, but the US and aussie tanked big time??  If the loss has been transferred to the French bank, why are the aussies and yanks worried (although I appreciate they may just see this as the tip of the ice berg).

The lesson learnt from all this is that markets are driven by sentiment.  It now appears the price of many shares may be below their value.  

What advice would i give client's if i was a paid financial adviser?  I would have to be conservative and warn of a bear market.  If you tell you client's to invest in bargains and they loose their money i would not expect to see them again....   I guess the only way to cover yourself is to predict the market will be volatile.


----------



## theasxgorilla (12 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> How do you all think tomorrow will go in terms of the XAO? will it go down or will it go up?




Up.  I think world markets will interpret the lack of selling pressure below 1455 on the S&P500 on Friday as bullish.  The drive down by a few of the top XAO shares I've been watching like BHP, RIO and WPL look just about exhausted, for now.


----------



## insider (12 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think it will go down... 3.7% down for the ftse... crazy... and the sp500 only finished in the green due to late buying by CBs... so the real value of sentiment is masked...


----------



## wavepicker (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> Thanks wave picker...
> 
> How do you all think tomorrow will go in terms of the XAO? will it go down or will it go up?
> 
> ...





Who knows insider, perhaps open lower and finish stronger in the arvo?? Posted some ideas in post #996


----------



## Sean K (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think because of the dramatic fall Friday, 'bargain hunters' will push it up, maybe 50 points. Managed Funds who are cashed up, and the Future Fund will be investing pretty heavy for the long term, IMO. Mums and dads, amateur retail investors, and those needing to pay off margin calls are selling now. I'm probably going to be selling!


----------



## Trembling Hand (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> SPI bounced off the 5,830 area o/night, up to 5,970's so Monday could see a short covering rally




Always possible but I'm not counting on it. The only real short covering I have seen recently was on 7th and that didn't create any great rally. Thou it was at the start of the 3 up days. Which they then reloaded before Friday. The Shorts on the SPI have been spot on since we have hit the highs back in Mid July and I would think they will not fold so easily. Any strength during this week will just give them another re-load point.


----------



## Sean K (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am a bear in a bull suit but I see things leaning into the bear den while the market is still going quite well. 'Quite well', I here you scream?  Even after the last weeks volatility, what % gain have we made the past calander and FY? 

Of course, past performance is no indication of future performance, but it's better than guestimates of events that have not occurred, on assumptions not yet proven half reliable. 

 

Correction in a long term bull.


----------



## insider (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The reserve bank are scheduled to release the new inflation rate tonight... things will be interesting tomorrow...


----------



## Edwood (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

bit of a run out of the blocks today - but looking for it to run out of steam around here


----------



## CanOz (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> bit of a run out of the blocks today - but looking for it to run out of steam around here




I was thinking a bounce now (6020 on my 5 minute chart) into 6057 ish and then short it...but i can't be around to watch it.

Cheers


----------



## Edwood (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

yeah you don't want to be away from it in these markets unless you're stop is at evens.

how did you get on with the Hang Seng closing early on you?

ASX turned back by the .618 retrace of last weeks drop - lets see if its got the legs to push on through it now


----------



## Lachlan6 (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Market looking to turn weak now after it seems like it may be rejecting the 50% retracement level from last Monday's lows to the temporary highs last Friday. Crucial support now the 200 day EMA and after today's weakish efforts, we may be seeing these levels either tommorow or again very soon.


----------



## CanOz (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> how did you get on with the Hang Seng closing early on you?




Not well, IG has refused to budge, virtually insinuating that i should have had the intellegence to realise that they had defaulted to the MM data from the S&P 500 futures, even though that data was not represented on the screen in any way.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Not well, IG has refused to budge, virtually insinuating that i should have had the intellegence to realise that they had defaulted to the MM data from the S&P 500 futures, even though that data was not represented on the screen in any way.
> 
> Cheers,




oh thats a shame - typical hey.  how would you have ended up had the market not closed early?  I saw your chart on the other thread and it'd broken out of your channel and put in a higher low


----------



## CanOz (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> oh thats a shame - typical hey.  how would you have ended up had the market not closed early?  I saw your chart on the other thread and it'd broken out of your channel and put in a higher low




I've actually got that chart too, the market dropped considerably, if i would have caught 2/3 of the move down, i would have banked about 31,000 HKD! 

Would have been a nice result from my first HS trade. My IB application is completed and i just have to supply a few details. I'm keen to short this next move, but if i'm not prepared then i'll let it go. I reckon it will take a while to become familiar with another platform.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> I've actually got that chart too, the market dropped considerably, if i would have caught 2/3 of the move down, i would have banked about 31,000 HKD!
> 
> Would have been a nice result from my first HS trade. My IB application is completed and i just have to supply a few details. I'm keen to short this next move, but if i'm not prepared then i'll let it go. I reckon it will take a while to become familiar with another platform.
> 
> Cheers,




oh no, sorry to hear that Can - bummer.  make sure you get a paper trading account with IB.

be very careful with Hang Seng holding over lunch breaks & out of hours, it can put in some huge gaps between sessions


----------



## CanOz (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> oh no, sorry to hear that Can - bummer.  make sure you get a paper trading account with IB.
> 
> be very careful with Hang Seng holding over lunch breaks & out of hours, it can put in some huge gaps between sessions




Good idea Edwood on the paper trading account. I need to practice my edge until i can execute it blindfolded...

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Good idea Edwood on the paper trading account. I need to practice my edge until i can execute it blindfolded...
> 
> Cheers,




Just be careful if you are going to look at the HK futs canuck- sim trading fills can sometimes be quite different to what you will get in real trading.


----------



## CanOz (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Just be careful if you are going to look at the HK futs canuck- sim trading fills can sometimes be quite different to what you will get in real trading.




Thanks Prof, great advice as always.

Cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Does this look like its about to change the trend and break out? Would you put this on your potential breakout list.
Hope not its the XAO upside down.


----------



## CanOz (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks bullish to me TH..LOL! I read somewhere that it was good to look at charts inverted to see if you had reverse analysis...where was that?

So TH, you think today was as much of a retrace as we'll get?

Cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Looks bullish to me TH..LOL! I read somewhere that it was good to look at charts inverted to see if you had reverse analysis...where was that?
> 
> So TH, you think today was as much of a retrace as we'll get?
> 
> Cheers,




Really not sure here. Stack of resistance above us (old range support from May to June, Most of the MAs, old highs etc) that's not news to anyone. What worries me is a lots of the Sub-sectors have completely broken down, Financials, Con Disc, Con Stable, Mid caps. Energy looks to be following. The only thing holding up the XAO from crossing that 200 MA is the Industrials and Materials. got BHPs report on the 22nd as a important date, sell the news good or bad? 
I see no reason to load up on longs here, chance of rally straight back up without a retest and therefore a chance to get in are very slim. But then again it does worry me that a lot of people think the same. That is a rally then roll over. I would be very disappointed if Mr market played out the way we want it to. 

Would love a June the 14th 06 kind of day. When we open down big like the world is coming to an end and then the big boys come out and go nuts to carry us back to finish up and save the day.


----------



## Trembling Hand (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oh and another thing. We have some 375,000 contracts out on the SPI. That is about 25% more than the rest of the year. and nearly double what it was through last year. that's a lot of rocket juice to put under this baby on an up move or a lot of fuel for a real blow up. Its been very interesting that on balance we have not had any real short covering or exiting of longs but the opposite an increase of postions. Both SPI Bulls and Bears seem to still be confident of winning this game.


----------



## Magdoran (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Does this look like its about to change the trend and break out? Would you put this on your potential breakout list.
> Hope not its the XAO upside down.



Inverting charts is really interesting to do, and I do this occasionally to see if my analysis changes.

Oddly enough I do this to bullish charts since I seem to have a bearish bias sometimes…

Interestingly wavepicker and I did this on occasions after the Feb 23 2007 high.  Ironically it looked a lot like this chart…  I’m not sure what that means – (I ignore MAs by the way).

What we need on this chart is volume though, that can tell you a great deal about what is going on.

It’s funny, but some people who’d come over to see some charts one day thought I must have been vain because I had a mirror on my computer desk… until I told them to hold it up to their head on an angle so they could look at the inverted image on the screen!


Mag


----------



## wavepicker (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> Inverting charts is really interesting to do, and I do this occasionally to see if my analysis changes.
> 
> Oddly enough I do this to bullish charts since I seem to have a bearish bias sometimes…
> 
> ...





Hi Mag,

I guess too many people here have forgotten what a bearish chart actually looks like. Just about about everything has been bullish for the last 4 years!!

That's why I also like to look at many other markets that are very volatile such as FX, teaches you to be unbiased!!


----------



## Awesomandy (13 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> I guess too many people here have forgotten what a bearish chart actually looks like. Just about about everything has been bullish for the last 4 years!!




That is very true. In fact, for newbies like myself, I've never been through a crash or an extended bear market. I like to think that I know quite a bit about the theory side of things, but the condition like we have now is definitely providing a great learning experience.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (14 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> That's why I also like to look at many other markets that are very volatile such as FX, teaches you to be unbiased!!




That's the Damn truth WP, 

FX has really helped me in that regard, looking at all different types of markets and market situations.


Cheers


----------



## motion (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> The companies I invest in are purely speculative... High return High Risk... They are also Uranium... That's doing crappy at the moment.... The Market is positioned to go lower... There are so many good reasons to run for the door... I was stupid enough to hold on for this long as it is my third correction but I missed the greatest portion of opportunity to get out while I was finishing up at UNI ... I was trying to get 50% CGT Now I have no Excuse as it is all gone... I still have CTS though




Well insider, I’m the first to admit my mistakes and when we where talking the other day I could not understand why you where dumping all your shares, but after you explaining this to myself, it became more clear why you where going through this process.

Well until yesterday I was looking to hold my shares long term and I was adamant that there was no reason to sell based on company fundamentals. Well after the market close yesterday that changed. I now know how you where feeling, some of my stocks dropped up to 15% yesterday and this was a big hit for my profile, but I decided to hold on as my total portfolio was down 14.51% at close and the market was looking it could turn either way over the next few days.

But this morning when I woke up and read the dow being down another 200%, made me think I need to sell my stocks due to the fact I'm now watching my money fall lower and lower and with 14.51% of my portfolio gone, what’s going to happen today maybe I could be at 20% loss on my portfolio. 

So insider I guess before I had not experienced what you had and now I think I’m in the same boat it's time for me to bail the ship before I loose more. 

That said the companies I have invested in are all companies I believe have value to add when the market corrects it self. But I guess now I'm asking myself when will that be and how much do I need to loose before it happens and will this come back to the prices I bought at... These are the questions going through my head when looking at my bank balance.  

I guess this is just one of the learning processes of dealing in the share market. Thanks again for people’s comments looks like I’m going to be sitting on the side  line for the moment, washing windows at traffice lights trying to get some money back or until I can see a chnage in the market.


----------



## TjamesX (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If the XAO follows the dows lead today it will likely close below its 200 day SMA for the fist time since the bull run started.... but it should still be above the 200 day EMA.

I'm not a technical person, but if it doesn't bounce off these levels this and next week (and continues to fall lower) then it is likely that it would signal a pshycological change in market sentiment???

TJ


----------



## numbercruncher (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think we are getting awfully close to down ward pressure feeding off itself because of bad sentiment.

Speculative stocks with no income are getting pounded , worse to come i fear ....


----------



## chops_a_must (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



TjamesX said:


> I'm not a technical person, but if it doesn't bounce off these levels this and next week (and continues to fall lower) then it is likely that it would signal a pshycological change in market sentiment???
> 
> TJ



Yeah.

It looks like this morning has just about put the final nail in the coffin of this market. It's clear this credit crunch is not going to ease... so now I'd say we are in Wavepicker's W3 down.

Only trades I am in now are free carries.  

It's going to be a good (don't really mean that) couple of weeks before the dust settles IMO.

The next few months will be very interesting.


----------



## Jadefox (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As mentioned by someone earlier the 5800 is an important level - 0.618 of the move up from the June 2006 low. Wouldn't be surprised to see a counter-trend rally from that level.


----------



## chops_a_must (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Jadefox said:


> As mentioned by someone earlier the 5800 is an important level - 0.618 of the move up from the June 2006 low. Wouldn't be surprised to see a counter-trend rally from that level.




We had that...

and now it's through with momentum...

This is going to get nasty.


----------



## Jadefox (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> We had that...
> 
> and now it's through with momentum...
> 
> This is going to get nasty.




It's at about 5832 according to my screen chops.


----------



## chops_a_must (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Jadefox said:


> It's at about 5832 according to my screen chops.



That 58ish level was of the XJO. The XAO retracement was above 59ish.


----------



## nizar (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Its gonna take a really long tail if we are to close above the 200dma.

Is it all over??


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is that the capitulation we had to have?

I'm playing the bottom picking game here.

:microwave


----------



## Jadefox (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> That 58ish level was of the XJO. The XAO retracement was above 59ish.




My apologies chops - I forgot that this is an XAO thread.


----------



## chops_a_must (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Its that the capitulation we had to have?
> 
> I'm playing the bottom picking game here.
> 
> :microwave



I'd be looking at these as levels of importance for the XAO:

5800, 5600, 5390, and if it does really really crash, just above 5100.


----------



## waz (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like the market doesnt want to go below 5800.
Now starting to pickup.

I havent got access to all my stats (as im at work)

But can anyone tell us what the drop has been since the high point to todays so far reached low. Also % drop would be nice.
From memory it was 6450 to 5838..

So down a lil over 600 points, which is almost 10%.


----------



## Jadefox (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XJO high to low approx 613.5 points or 9.53%


----------



## powerkoala (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well, i guess it's time to say goodbye to everyone 
see you next year or when market goes north again

- just kidding -


support 5800, if this break, then i really dunno what will happen to our lovely market.


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How about some calming words from some Bulls? you know the Kind "china is still strong", "this is just a correction" "Company's are still making money" Come on guys where are you?


----------



## sam76 (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> How about some calming words from some Bulls? you know the Kind "china is still strong", "this is just a correction" "Company's are still making money" Come on guys where are you?





ABN Amro Morgans private client adviser Bill Bishop said concerns about the US subprime market have taken their toll on the Australian stock market.
``An acceleration in subprime woes in America have floated across the Pacific and the financials are being hit,'' he said.
``Nothing's been left alone. You could really say there have been significant falls across virtually all sectors.
''(But) it was odds on it was going to be a bad day after America's rather precipitous fall last night.''
Mr Bishop said that, with the reporting season going well, the slump was sure to end.
``It will finish,'' he said.
``We've had a volatile market for three or four weeks now and it's probably going to remain that way, but the good stocks are doing well, the reporting season is going well. It's just unfortunately not holding the market up, but that's life.
``Sanity will prevail in the end.''


----------



## insider (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here are some calming words from the bulls... AT LEAST YOU STILL HAVE YOUR HEALTH


----------



## powerkoala (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well, if everyone didn't sell, the price won't go down right?
so who still believe in bulls here?
i do, but the rest of the market don't


----------



## Julia (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> well, if everyone didn't sell, the price won't go down right?
> so who still believe in bulls here?
> i do, but the rest of the market don't




You might find that those with confidence just prefer not to jump up and down and make a lot of noise.


----------



## Bush Trader (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> well, if everyone didn't sell, the price won't go down right?
> so who still believe in bulls here?
> i do, but the rest of the market don't




I havn't bought nor sold yet.  I have made that mistake in corrections before  jumping in too early.

Look a the materials correction last year - how long did it run?

Answer -  Mid May to late September  -  remember BHP found support at $24 after peaking at $32 mid May.  I had puitchased parcells of the stock thoughout the whole period (testing to say the least), which I am still sitting on.  Whith the amount of influence BHP has on the XAO we had better hope that it holds.

Don't ask me how much further this has to go, I have no idea. When a few  punters thought the sky would fall in during the Feb correction there was talk of firm support a t 5400 - I think this was Kennas's number from memory. 

It my belief that things like leveraged investments, CFD's, margin loans, and "stop losses" are the greatest reasons for the modern markets over-correcting.  How many of you have been stopped out on trades since early August?  How many of you have sold stock to cover margin calls?

I'm still a bull, however it will far more cautiously.

Good luck to all those long


----------



## Kimosabi (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> Here are some calming words from the bulls... AT LEAST YOU STILL HAVE YOUR HEALTH




That's exactly what we need, healthy bulls for the slaughterhouse...


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bush Trader said:


> I havn't bought nor sold yet.  I have made that mistake in corrections before  jumping in too early.
> 
> Look a the materials correction last year - how long did it run?
> 
> ...




I'm guessing the "correction" will end when people stop comparing this to previous ones. 
This is different. This was *distribution* then a fall. Not a run up of hot money and an Unwinding of leverage. This is a bubble bursting in credit, not a nasty pull back and run higher which in its self is a part of a bubble. Bubbles do not unwind in three weeks and when they involve hard assets (US houses) they tend to have effects on the world economy.

Just before you start jumping up and down I didn't say that stocks where in a bubble, just credit. and the Financing of Real estate. What sort of effect does that have on the economy. Ironically part of this mess is a result of the Japanese real estate bubble that goes back 20 years. Have a look at what has driven this credit bubble. The Yen carry trade. Its so linked you have to laugh. Rates that are so low tyring to stimulate growth that has never really got going since money was poured into Sub prime real estates bubble 20 years ago have had there effect 20 years later to fund anther credit/real estate mess. To perfect to believe.


----------



## numbercruncher (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Only green on all my watchlists is ZAUWBA


----------



## TjamesX (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Just before you start jumping up and down I didn't say that stocks where in a bubble, just credit. and the Financing of Real estate. What sort of effect does that have on the economy. Ironically part of this mess is a result of the Japanese real estate bubble that goes back 20 years. Have a look at what has driven this credit bubble. The Yen carry trade. Its so linked you have to laugh. Rates that are so low tyring to stimulate growth that has never really got going since money was poured into Sub prime real estates bubble 20 years ago have had there effect 20 years later to fund anther credit/real estate mess. To perfect to believe.




The problem is credit (and the housing wealth effect) has fueled the spending boom that has seen profits rise. I would expect the credit issues to subside in the day to day headlines and the XAO to recover over the next weeks... the question is has the debt bubble let the cat out of the bag from a fundamental point... and will this cause the market pshycology to change...

Self fullfilling prophecies and confidence work both in the upwards direction and down

TJ


----------



## Bush Trader (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This may be of interest


Aussie Equities Support At 5798

Source:FN Arena News - August 15 2007 

The Tech Wizard notes the local market continues to be plagued by the fallout of what once used to be known as the US subprime crisis. It is now in its 4th week of ongoing turbulence.
From a technical point of view he says key support for the XJO (S&P/ASX200 index) is at the 38.2% retracement at 5798. If this level would be broken the next support lies at the 50% retracement at 5600.
(A special note for non-tech heads who are wondering how a market that only fell a few percentages can have a retracement level of 38%. The Tech Wizard explains the level is calculated from the last major low back in June 2006 at 4760 to the high four weeks ago at 6436).

He believes only time will tell whether the current “correction” will turn out the advent of something sinister or simply the mother of all buying opportunities


----------



## Sean K (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

IMO there would have to be a cat bouncing off a stair tomorrow morning.


----------



## Bush Trader (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> I'm guessing the "correction" will end when people stop comparing this to previous ones.
> This is different. This was *distribution* then a fall. Not a run up of hot money and an Unwinding of leverage. This is a bubble bursting in credit, not a nasty pull back and run higher which in its self is a part of a bubble. Bubbles do not unwind in three weeks and when they involve hard assets (US houses) they tend to have effects on the world economy.




Yes I agree with you, however there has been alot of punter and fund money on the sidelines waiting for this, entrys and exits only add to the volatility in my opinion.




> Just before you start jumping up and down I didn't say that stocks where in a bubble, just credit. and the Financing of Real estate. What sort of effect does that have on the economy. Ironically part of this mess is a result of the Japanese real estate bubble that goes back 20 years. Have a look at what has driven this credit bubble. The Yen carry trade. Its so linked you have to laugh. Rates that are so low tyring to stimulate growth that has never really got going since money was poured into Sub prime real estates bubble 20 years ago have had there effect 20 years later to fund anther credit/real estate mess. To perfect to believe.




I suppose that's why they call it a credit cycle


Cheers


BT


----------



## billhill (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

First close below the 200 day ema since the begining of this bull market. Signs are not looking to good technically. obviously the next critical level is around 5800 so will be keenly waiting to see what happens.


----------



## britishcarfreak (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's amazing how absurd our Aussie overreaction is to the US market.  Look at this All Ordinaries vs the Dow Jones.  Today is just ridiculous. 9.5 % down compared to 1 month ago vs 6.3% down for the Dow Jones.

OR are Aussies smarter and ahead of the US - and they're just lagging behind us....   I don't think so.


----------



## GreatPig (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well here we are again, essentially at the bottom of the channel that's been in place since early 2003, and where each of the other main corrections has turned back into a new uptrend.

It's already broken the 200 day MA, so for me this level is now important. If it drops below the channel, my longs will be off and packed in moth balls for a while! :

Cheers,
GP


----------



## dubiousinfo (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well that was scary today.
Is it safe to come out yet :couch
Probably not.




kennas said:


> IMO there would have to be a cat bouncing off a stair tomorrow morning.





Here kitty kitty kitty.........


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



billhill said:


> First close below the 200 day ema since the begining of this bull market. Signs are not looking to good technically. obviously the next critical level is around 5800 so will be keenly waiting to see what happens.





Sorry to be such a bear, but if it goes, the next support is 5500 and after that 5000 . 

Garpal


----------



## dhukka (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's interesting how every time a support line is broken technical analysts come up with a new one. So if it breaks through support does that mean it wasn't really support? 

I guess if you keep drawing support lines lower and lower you'll eventually get to the 'real' support line. Then you'll be able to explain the stock market's movement as a bounce off the support line....after the fact of course. 

Hey here's an idea, maybe there is no support, maybe support just exists as an imaginary line on a chart, that has no relevance to movements in stock prices? 

Nah couldn't be.


----------



## wavepicker (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You said it Garpal,

this market has only moved down 50% of where it should eventually move for this first leg down. There is much more to come IMO, if not in the short term then in the medium term.

The market has a habbit of giving back gains very quickly especially when it comes to speculative miners. Easy come, easy go!! -


----------



## eMark (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Well here we are again, essentially at the bottom of the channel that's been in place since early 2003, and where each of the other main corrections has turned back into a new uptrend.
> 
> It's already broken the 200 day MA, so for me this level is now important. If it drops below the channel, my longs will be off and packed in moth balls for a while! :
> 
> ...




What would your typical scenario be? Would you sell up your stocks regardless of whether they are in a loss or profit scenario? Just curious as to what you would do? I guess I'm a long myself, as at the moment I have no choice with the "paper" losses I currently hold.


----------



## waz (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Im with you brittishcarfreak,
im at a loss as to why the XAO has fallen harder than the Dow Jones.
It would be good to compare it against the S&P500 aswell


Even though its the mortgage crisis which is getting all the media/forum attention. It would appear that the fall in commodity prices has been a bigger contributor to the fall. well in Australia.

Although, while losses in sub-prime will be gone for good, and will continue to occur for the next few months
At least commodity markets can pick up again. especially when you consider that inventories are falling for a number of metals. So while it may be hard to determine a price for a debt instrument (making it almost worthless) there will always be a price for a metal.

Something we can look further at, is what has happened with low-doc home loans in new Zealand. Over there int rates are for home loans are pushing 10% (and maybe more). But so far they havnt had many defaults.
Can the same be expected in Australia???

So my point is, the harder the fall, the bigger the bounce.


----------



## wayneL (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> It's interesting how every time a support line is broken technical analysts come up with a new one. So if it breaks through support does that mean it wasn't really support?
> 
> I guess if you keep drawing support lines lower and lower you'll eventually get to the 'real' support line. Then you'll be able to explain the stock market's movement as a bounce off the support line....after the fact of course.
> 
> ...



Yup.

Support is only support when there's support. I prefer the term "potential" support.

There may be fundamental/psychological reasons for support, and these can be charted, but not just because someone draws a line.


----------



## theasxgorilla (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



waz said:


> im at a loss as to why the XAO has fallen harder than the Dow Jones.




One way to explain it might be the big fish, little pond analogy.  The ASX is a little pond.  When big fish from the ocean want to liquidate their positions the limitations of liquidity in our market are revealed more readily than what might happen if the same fish removed equivalent positions on a much larger market like the US.  Or it might be the absense of an Aussie plunge protection team?


----------



## spooly74 (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



britishcarfreak said:


> It's amazing how absurd our Aussie overreaction is to the US market.  Look at this All Ordinaries vs the Dow Jones.  Today is just ridiculous. 9.5 % down compared to 1 month ago vs 6.3% down for the Dow Jones.
> 
> OR are Aussies smarter and ahead of the US - and they're just lagging behind us....   I don't think so.




Could be due to the fact we have done so well, in US$ terms. 
Offshore funds could grab some good profits.

Volatility is huge at the moment too.


----------



## wavepicker (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Yup.
> 
> Support is only support when there's support. I prefer the term "potential" support.
> 
> There may be fundamental/psychological reasons for support, and these can be charted, but not just because someone draws a line.




In an earlier post I mentioned that IMO this leg down in the indices is only 50% done at best over the medium term. Why would this be? Well I have looked at two of the "heavies" in the XAO, being BHP and RIO. Both have high probability patterns in place, and if these patterns play out as well as other similar patterns/setups that have traded in the past, these should be money for jam for those short in the coming weeks/months, if not already.

This should make quite dent in XAO in that time period. These are classic textbook EW patterns, they don't come much better. Just my 2c worth, not financial advice though.

Good Trading to all


----------



## numbercruncher (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. investors will look to a rash of economic reports for direction Wednesday while taking in a global stock sell off prompted by fresh credit fears.
> 
> At 4:43 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were lower, with a comparison to fair value pointing to a flat open. U.S. stocks have finished lower the past four sessions.





http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/15/markets/stockswatch/


More pain on the way ? ....


----------



## wayneL (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> At 4:43 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were lower, with a comparison to fair value pointing to a flat open. U.S. stocks have finished lower the past four sessions.




 These journos really are muppets! Comparison to fair value at 4:43 AM is total BS and points to SFA.


----------



## ozambersand (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Where can I find figures for market turnover and volumes of trades for the XAO over a period of time? 

For example, today's  market turnover was $A 8,481,442,489.00 but I would like to get a feel of the figures over a period of time and the accompanying volume of trades and I can't find it listed anywhere.

(Sorry I suppose this should be in the Beginner's forum but it does relate to the XAO! I did do a search of the forum but didn't come up with any site that stores that info)


----------



## nomore4s (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's a logarithmic 5 year daily chart of the XAO. Prices now at the bottom trend line. Pretty strong tend line about to be broken.


----------



## brettc4 (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think we have a problem listening to financial journalists.  Most of them would have never seen a market like this, and even if they had, the market dynamics are completely different, the local and global economies are different.  TO me they are just putting a finger in the air and hedging their bets either way and hoping the mass of the population cannot tell they have no idea about what's going on.

The bad thing, the mass of people do not know what is going on so they hear these reports and think, well they are in the media, CNBC, Wall Street journal whatever, they must knoww hat is going on. Lets get out before it gets any worse.

I would like to see this exact situation played out with no media commentary, it would be so much different.
A couple of companies would come out down the track and say;
"Huh, we have a credit issue, wrote off some bad loans, raised some additional capital, the numbers will be down a little next year, but on the whole things are still alright".

And people would sell off that company but it wouldn't be this widespread.

Basically I think we let the media get away with too much, and one the whole we let them.

Fox News, we report you decide.
Sounds like; McDonalds, Worlds favourite fries.
Who do you believe?
The Truth is out there.


----------



## ozambersand (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wow, if that upturn that happened after the bottom in Feb 2003 is repeated tomorrow, I'd be kicking myself that I didn't buy some call warrants today.

I couldn't wait for an answer to my question re historical data so checked out a few sites and found some data on the Sydney Morning Herald site.

Some of the posters here said they wouldn't look at starting to get back into the market until the volumes picked up. (At least that's what I think they said!  )

So, I graphed the volume (/000), the value (/0,000) and the XAO index in Excel to try and see what sort of pattern results with upturns.

This is what the figures gave. Now I am NOT a chartist, so can anyone interpret these and see if there is a pattern here? You can see the end of the financial year spikes, but I would be interested in anyone else's theories as to why other ones occurred and what to look for.

(Also, am curious why if volumes and value of trades is still high, why the ASX share price is down so much? Is it tied to the XAO?)


----------



## insider (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Ftse is doing crap and so is every other European Market so maybe the US dips again tonight...

The US opens in 41 minutes people... How will it go?


----------



## GreatPig (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				eMark said:
			
		

> What would your typical scenario be? Would you sell up your stocks regardless of whether they are in a loss or profit scenario?



The few positions I have left have mostly all just poked their noses down below their trend lines today, so any more movement down would see them gone irrespective of the index.

I guess if the market was still in a strong uptrend I might wait a bit longer on the likely probability that they'd recover, but not at the moment.

GP


----------



## >Apocalypto< (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is this a bull market still, or is this a birth of a bear? 

I can not say, it's to early to tell for me.

What I do know:

We are in a strong short term down trend, which we needed to have! its a 10% correction now normal. From the may sell off low point to the highs I have a fibb measurement.

We are now at 38%, I personally dont think its over and i see 50% hit that lines up with a trend line. As wavepicker has noted, the next real rally from the low point which I think will be around the 50% point will sell this to me. A fast sharp push that fails and falls back to or under the rally point will send a word of warning to me. If we rally fall rally, strat to show a range of support, that is a posible sign of accumulation a positive sign as long as a good support base is found.

Until that is shown this is a very tricky situation and I am not confident to be bargain hunting so to speak.

Time will tell members, right now the current driving trend is down!

Good trading.

see chart...


----------



## Magdoran (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> It's interesting how every time a support line is broken technical analysts come up with a new one. So if it breaks through support does that mean it wasn't really support?
> 
> I guess if you keep drawing support lines lower and lower you'll eventually get to the 'real' support line. Then you'll be able to explain the stock market's movement as a bounce off the support line....after the fact of course.
> 
> ...



Dhukka,


It really depends on which technique you are using.

The system I use works very effectively.  In fact sometimes it is freaky when you see support and resistance come in to the cent.

The problem with this era’s “orthodox” approaches is that they only work in specific conditions if they work at all.

Remember, “Support” and “resistance” involves the dimension of time too, and used in concert with price can be very effective.

The lines being drawn on the amateur charts are hardly a measure of effective technical analysis.

If you are in doubt, look at my XAO call for 23 Feb, and the comment I made about a week out from the high which quoted the most likely level of resistance to within one index point.

That is the kind of resistance call you should be paying attention too, not the hopeful lines drawn on amateur bull's charts.

If you take the time to understand how to locate price harmonics and McLaren’s concept of the “division of the range”, and road tested it heavily trying to make or break it, then maybe you’d have a different perspective.

But to make a sweeping claim like you have indicates to me that you haven’t really examined this quadrant of thinking, hence my challenge.

Completely up to you of course if you want to find out more, and put the necessary time and effort in.


Kind Regards


Magdoran


----------



## GreatPig (15 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If you take Fib levels over the whole bull run from early 2003, the 38.2% level is around 5000, the 50% level around 4560, and the 61.8% level around 4110.

If the market fell back to that 50% level over quite a few months, it would meet up with my longer-term trend line from post-'87, which is currently around 4230 and rising at 6.8% a year.

GP


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I’m going to be a gutsy here and say there should be temporary support tomorrow for the XAO, since it’s hit some key time angles – not strong support, but enough with such exhaustive moves that some key stocks look like they have exhaustion bars down.

I’m not saying the bear drive is over (although it may be for a while), but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some reversals and minor moves for some stocks for a couple of days.

If we do get a rally, there is the danger of a major lower high coming in signalling another leg down, but I have to say that I see conflicting patterns at this juncture.

In the weekly it just looks like it needs another leg up to complete… but this does not preclude a very strong bearish drive in the interim.

I suspect we’ll get a counter trend between tomorrow and early next week.  How strong this is and if it can make a higher low will say a lot about this bear drive.

Regards


Magdoran


----------



## wavepicker (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> I’m going to be a gutsy here and say there should be temporary support tomorrow for the XAO, since it’s hit some key time angles – not strong support, but enough with such exhaustive moves that some key stocks look like they have exhaustion bars down.
> 
> I’m not saying the bear drive is over (although it may be for a while), but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some reversals and minor moves for some stocks for a couple of days.
> 
> ...




Fully support your view Mag,

The last time for support which was accompanied by a 5 wave structure only led to a very small day rally. It was either going to be that or something slightly higher which didn't materialize.  It seems that using a variety of methods ranging from your Gann Analysis to Fib Time Analysis, that the dates you have quoted 20-22nd August might be significant. I could envisage that a nice zigzag(abc move down) could be in place by that time. Thereafter I don't have any further significant dates till mid to late September, so the rotation in terms of price is upward/sideways in that timeframe.  Having said that I am under the assumption that this will be a countertrend and later lead to a capitulation type fall(as wave C's  can be a lot like wave 3's) to end this leg down. I am bearish this market till November, for this leg down.

Cheers


----------



## wayneL (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOLOL

"Bearish" A parody song


----------



## Lachlan6 (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It looks quite messy in the short term at least. I have a minimum downside target of 5657 for the not too distant future based on a downside projection of the range as posted. Notice the rallies last week, were only able to cover 50% of the highs in July. Hmmm, says to me this market has still quite a bit of falling to do before we accumulate for a while and then decide what to do next.


----------



## Edwood (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

SPI hit 5,700 o/n Lachlan so another 43 lower could easily get there today


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Fully support your view Mag,
> 
> The last time for support which was accompanied by a 5 wave structure only led to a very small day rally. It was either going to be that or something slightly higher which didn't materialize.  It seems that using a variety of methods ranging from your Gann Analysis to Fib Time Analysis, that the dates you have quoted 20-22nd August might be significant. I could envisage that a nice zigzag(abc move down) could be in place by that time. Thereafter I don't have any further significant dates till mid to late September, so the rotation in terms of price is upward/sideways in that timeframe.  Having said that I am under the assumption that this will be a countertrend and later lead to a capitulation type fall(as wave C's  can be a lot like wave 3's) to end this leg down. I am bearish this market till November, for this leg down.
> 
> Cheers



Hello wavepicker,


Certainly a plausible scenario.  Privately the ABC was my favoured pattern, but I’m wary that the XAO has moved further than other indexes (especially the US, where the sub prime meltdown ironically is located).

It's funny, but when on the short side, one must not get too cocky; these markets can rally up on you very sharply with this kind of volatility...  

The problem with the time cycles at this point is that pitch can overcome support and resistance in time, hence I'm cautious.

The 3% move in the XAO yesterday makes me think that a counter trend must emerge soon and arrest the move down since markets seldom move in straight lines, and even though the bears are in command right now, this kind of volatile market can chop sharply and very quickly, so if short it's important to take that partial profit when you see exhaustive bars...

The big question is whether this is a correction nearing its end and a bull market will resume (albeit in a choppy consolidation), or if there is a counter trend up to make a significant lower high, and further downside?

The counter trend that comes out of this will say a lot.  Having studied various tops the pattern that emerges will give clues as to which way this market may play out.



Regards


Magdoran


----------



## >Apocalypto< (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> LOLOL
> 
> "Bearish" A parody song





Wayne,

that was a classic! now that's the type of tunes we need to hear in Australian Idol!

Also, I love your Avatars lately!


----------



## CFD (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Would be most unusual for our market to rise over a federal election period, with the likely outcome that the polls are forecasting. A change to right wing Labor, ie Hawke/Keating was just tolerated, anything else no chance.


----------



## wavepicker (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hello Mag, hope you are well and brilliant!!



Magdoran said:


> It's funny, but when on the short side, one must not get too cocky; these markets can rally up on you very sharply with this kind of volatility...




So very true, that is why when trading this sort of volatility timing is of the essence




Magdoran said:


> The counter trend that comes out of this will say a lot.  Having studied various tops the pattern that emerges will give clues as to which way this market may play out.





Well as Maclaren says, if one is going to succeed in this business, then 90% of ones positioning must come from countertrends. Understanding the pattern of trend and types of countertrends together with timing is paramount, especially with regard to derivatives.

So it will be interesting to see the move that comes from this. From my perspective the patterns in the market are quite clear at present, these views are based from the long terms patterns/wave structures that are in place together with Cyclical Statistical studies. Offcourse anyhting is possible in the market and sometimes things don’t go as planned or expected. There are no certainties and one has to be cognizant of this and have contingency plans in place.

Let’s see what happens early into next week then


----------



## springhill (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> The 3% move in the XAO yesterday makes me think that a counter trend must emerge soon and arrest the move down since markets seldom move in straight lines, and even though the bears are in command right now, this kind of volatile market can chop sharply and very quickly, so if short it's important to take that partial profit when you see exhaustive bars..




Hi Magdoran i have no idea what an exhaustive bar is, or looks like, for those of us less experienced and informed could u provide an example and explanation please?


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



springhill said:


> Hi Magdoran i have no idea what an exhaustive bar is, or looks like, for those of us less experienced and informed could u provide an example and explanation please?



I'll put up a couple of examples - looking for bearish ones, but have a few things on, so will fire them through hopefully for the XAO when I can...

Mag


----------



## powerkoala (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ok guys this is really getting messy now.
touching 5660. 
another 60 we will break and goes to 5000.
this is mad.
we are reseting back to december year 2007.
all booming for the past 7 months are gone in 4 weeks.
what will happen?
what will drive ppl back to market?
interest rate cut?
any idea anyone?


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



springhill said:


> Hi Magdoran i have no idea what an exhaustive bar is, or looks like, for those of us less experienced and informed could u provide an example and explanation please?



Had this one in my stable of top studies...


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



springhill said:


> Hi Magdoran i have no idea what an exhaustive bar is, or looks like, for those of us less experienced and informed could u provide an example and explanation please?



And another...


----------



## numbercruncher (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oh My Goodness .......


----------



## CanOz (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> Oh My Goodness .......





Yeah! WOW....dropping like a lead blimp....on the daily s2 now, short again if it goes through that!


----------



## rub92me (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Panic has definitely taken over now. This is the maddest rush to the exits I've ever seen in my 6 years of trading. All bets are off as far as I'm concerned ...


----------



## powerkoala (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

this is insane.....


----------



## wavepicker (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like the age of easy $$ for bulls just got a fraction harder.....

Navigating the markets from now on might require doing some work


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



springhill said:


> Hi Magdoran i have no idea what an exhaustive bar is, or looks like, for those of us less experienced and informed could u provide an example and explanation please?



Just revised the 1993-94 top example, with all the exhaustive bars marked.  This is an excellent example of how bearish moves can play out, and what to look for to either exit shorts or take profits along the way down.

(McLaren suggests exiting half at projected points of support – you can take 1/3rd off if confident, or 2/3rds off if nervous for example so at least a portion of the position allows the winner to run, but prevents a winner from turning into a loser if the market reverses strongly on you – reduces the chances of overstaying a position.)


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> Oh My Goodness .......




Yes Hopefully Magdoran will be posting todays bar as an exhaustion bar?


----------



## sleeper88 (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

how much can the market fall?..there's no adequate word to describe this


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Woops, thought this would find support around this time...  today in fact for some and tomorrow for other stocks...  Oh well, can't always get 100% of the move now can you?

This will be interesting to watch.


----------



## brendan87 (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If there were accusations of the Aus market extending beyond fair valuation during the bull-run, then I make the accusation the Aus market has moved far below fair valuation.


----------



## wavepicker (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brendan87 said:


> If there were accusations of the Aus market extending beyond fair valuation during the bull-run, then I make the accusation the Aus market has moved far below fair valuation.




Has it?? How do you work out fair value??  Something is only worth as much as what another is willing to pay. In the end the market will do what it likes


----------



## hacheln_mice (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, there goes the trendline from the 2003 lows. (Today's candle is not on there, but it pierces right through it.)


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The price action today has now moved right out of scope for my analysis in the short term.  

This is now a capitulation in progress, and who knows where the bottom is.  I have projections, but in my experience this kind of panic move is extremely difficult to predict.  It’s beyond my skill to make any meaningful projection while this is in play…

The only thing that will give an indication will be when a counter trend rally comes in, and how strong and how long it lasts… 

Time points become of limited value in a panic move since pitch (strength of the move) often overcomes support in time (McLaren concept).


Mag


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

To add to the FUN the SFE is closing in 15 min. To fix a problem!!

No lead from the FUTs market. Things may cool down a little here


----------



## dhukka (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> Woops, thought this would find support around this time...  today in fact for some and tomorrow for other stocks...  Oh well, can't always get 100% of the move now can you?
> 
> This will be interesting to watch.




So I guess your support wasn't really support either mag?


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> So I guess your support wasn't really support either mag?



On the contrary, my comments were out of fear for short positions… and I was acting totally as a chartist looking at the bars…

Actually the support did occur, pretty much to the point, but that support was temporary, as I stated.  The concept of support is not immutable and is only relevant in time, just like resistance works, but can be overcome even the next day.  It all depends on the pattern.

In my style “time angles” may be broken and recovered, they are not like trend lines, and my time points are still in the future, and they are quite reliable, but not infallible…

Panic moves are an exception, or very buoyant bull moves.  McLaren identifies this as “pitch” overcoming support and resistance in time.

Hence you are absolutely right, in these times support and resistance projections become problematic…  But this market hasn’t hit key time and price increments since 10th August…

But the start of this bear drive was projected for the S&P 500 to the day from about a month out (but got the price wrong – time is my strong suit, not price).  So my style works in specific conditions, but not all the time.  Same goes with Elliott Wave and other styles.

Equally projecting where this market is likely to go to is also possible (probably more in time than price – but not yet, when a counter trend comes in is required).  In the interim when the price action is in between time and price increments, trying to work out what will happen each day is challenging and not a strong suit of mine….  I do know some people that are proficient in intra day analysis.  This is not my strong suit.  I’m geared for position trading.

So, yes, projection support at this point in time is highly problematic, I will concede that.  But longer term support is a different matter.  A lot depends on your style, doesn’t it?


Mag


----------



## Sean K (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Fear and greed.

The market over and undershoots. 

Right now is an undershoot IMO.

Great opportunity for those prepared. 

Good luck!


----------



## dhukka (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> On the contrary, my comments were out of fear for short positions… and I was acting totally as a chartist looking at the bars…
> 
> Actually the support did occur, pretty much to the point, but that support was temporary, as I stated.  The concept of support is not immutable and is only relevant in time, just like resistance works, but can be overcome even the next day.  It all depends on the pattern.
> 
> ...




I don't know Mag, clearly you are light years ahead of me in your understanding of technicals. After I did my SIA course on technical analysis course I never looked into it much further. 

I understand your point that: 



> "The concept of support is not immutable and is only relevant in time, just like resistance works, but can be overcome even the next day.




It's just that a lot people seem genuinely surprised when their supposed support lines don't hold -  a bit like the French with the maginot line.


----------



## sleeper88 (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All Ordinaries 5,560.50 -241.00 -4.15 13:24 
ASX 100 4,486.90 -184.00 -3.94 13:24 
ASX 200 5,556.00 -232.00 -4.01 13:24 
ASX 300 5,565.40 -236.20 -4.07 13:24 

Hang Seng 20,760.91 -614.81 -2.88 13:25 
Jakarta Comp 1,908.84 -120.24 -5.93 13:24 
Nikkei 16,047.46 -428.15 -2.60 12:30 
Philipines - PSI 2,992.03 -138.31 -4.42 13:24 
Shanghai Comp 4,788.40 -81.49 -1.67 13:25 
Thailand SET 752.32 -21.60 -2.79 13:24 
Taiwan Weighted 8,303.14 -289.90 -3.37 13:25 
Straits Times Index 3,154.02 -119.23 -3.64 13:25


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> It's just that a lot people seem genuinely surprised when their supposed support lines don't hold -  a bit like the French with the maginot line.



Nice analogy!  Good point, and agree fully...


Mag


----------



## jammin (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> This is now a capitulation in progress, and who knows where the bottom is.



All Ords down 250 for the day, so far. That sure does sound like capitulation, and it doesn't sound very nice.


----------



## dhukka (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Dhukka,
> 
> Instead of taking cheap shots at TA why don't you tell us when this will bottom or counter rally to continue down.
> 
> or don't your pretty Little PE's and company reports tell u that!




Trade_it,

Firstly PE's are of no use to me, I don't look at them. Secondly I'm not stupid enough to try and pick a bottom. Honestly I have absolutely no idea where the bottom is and it really isn't that important to me. I will look to buy companies with solid fundamentals that are trading at significant discounts to fair value.


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hello Joseph,


I think dhukka has a valid point there about the limitations of any method of trying to understand the market, and it is true that many technical analysts do get it wrong… as they must.  No method is infallible, is it?

The challenge I think is to find an approach that yields consistency and good risk management.

I have a high level of respect for proficient Fundamental analysts.  Buffet didn’t get rich by chance, and Jim Rodgers (who worked initially with Soros at the time their fund quadrupled and wrote “Hot Commodities” and “The Investment Biker” where he travelled all over China noting their growing infrastructure) is still a commentator I sit up and take notice of.

I believe the best teams have equally strong technical and fundamental players in them.  I have a lot of time for good FA players, and listen to posters such as Ducati who have an insight into the way companies are structured and run – the balance sheet and what is on it (and also what is NOT on it) can reveal a lot about a stock.

So, please, let’s not get into a debate over styles.  I want it on the record that I have the utmost respect for gifted fundamental analysts.


Warm Regards


Magdoran


----------



## numbercruncher (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Its getting scary, they should close the market and send everyone to the Pub to have a chat about this .....


----------



## Jadefox (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wow! 5500 broken - that's about a quarter of the entire move up from 2003.
Hope any patient bears out there are finally being rewarded. Dramatic stuff!


----------



## Nick Radge (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Comments from _*last*_ night...










*BOTTOM LINE 
15/8:*
EW Trend: Down
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Down
Broker Consensus: n/a


*LAYMANS ANALYSIS 
15/8:*
The market is making a clear statement; it's no bearish slouch. Todays price action basically puts to rest any suggestion of a secondary bounce and provides, unquestionably, a cleaner and, dare I say it, more reliable pattern. Today's chart revisits the Share Price Index Futures (SPI) for September delivery on a 60-minute time frame. Semantics aside, its a glimpse of the inside workings of the ASX-200 (XJO) where we can better ascertain the pattern position within the larger daily time frame. It's not pleasant. Swan dive, cliff, whatever you want to call it, *but we're peering over the edge here and unless we can get a move back above 5900 we're on our way to 5525 minimum in this move*. Our call for a possible Bullish Divergence has all but collapsed. We're now sitting on the lower side of a support band from 5825 through to 5875. Any brief consolidation here would only continue to confirm the bearish pattern and would be an adjunct to further weakness. 


*TECHNICAL DISCUSSION 
15/8:*
The 3-wave bounce discussed on Friday has basically taken shape within a lower time frame. The statement being made however is the smooth and impulsive price action from that bounce shown here. We now appear to be in a wave-(iii) which paves the way for further declines into wave-(v) near 5500. Not a nice picture, but that has been the score since the first impulse off the July highs. My charts continue to show a corrective phase labeled as waves-A and -B. That may well be incorrect depending on how one wishes to view the June/July highs. My view is the conservative view. If we take the move to date off the highs as a new bearish 5-wave pattern, then things look severe. We are approaching the trend line extending off the 2003 lows, but as I have stated in these pages before, I place more emphasis on horizontal support, not diagonal. Today was also the first time that the 200-day moving average has been cleanly breached for 4-years. I don't personally place any emphasis on the 200-day ma but many pundits do. The cleanest and most reliable patterns are those shown in price and today shows it's turned down with considerable force.


----------



## Kauri (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There you go, I go out fishing for a couple of hours and look what happens!!!!
 Cheers
..Kauri


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This was scary back 20 years ago!


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That drop after the Futures closed at 12:45 looks like Traders that are holding longs SPIs shorting for a hedge (Like me) as soon as we got the time the SFE was coming back everyone covered and now back to where we started.


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Compare 1987 with this current chart - 1987 was much steeper! (so far).


----------



## >Apocalypto< (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*RBA comes to the rescue*

Australia added a larger-than-usual amount of $2.5 billion in 
cash to the banking system [ID:nSYD31497], while South Korea said 
it would take all possible measures to stablise domestic 
financial markets [ID:nSEO75339]. 
Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index <.AXJO> fell 166.4 
points to 5,621.0 by 0424 GMT, after sliding as much as 5.3 
percent earlier, the biggest one-day percentage fall since April 
17, 2000.


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That's one hell of an intraday rally going on...  the close will be very interesting...


----------



## springhill (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> That's one hell of an intraday rally going on...  the close will be very interesting...




Thats what i thought too, any idea on the implications if we close only 50-100 points down, or conversly if the rally fails and we finish 150-200 down. Should we put more weight on intraday action or EOD in this scenario? Possibly the rally has too much momentum and is destined to fail?


----------



## brendan87 (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Has it?? How do you work out fair value??  Something is only worth as much as what another is willing to pay. In the end the market will do what it likes




Holding constant all assumptions about future fundamentals - Fair value is a direct function of one's discount rate. Whether yours is higher or lower than the "market's" determines whether current prices are fair value for you or not.


----------



## GreatPig (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is going to be a huge hammer bar. Hopefully that will be as bullish as it's supposed to be!

GP


----------



## insider (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

what does a hammer signify?


----------



## powerkoala (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ok... now what is going on ??????
are we riding a deadfast roller coaster ?????
down 5% and now rebound 160 points ?????


----------



## springhill (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> This is going to be a huge hammer bar. Hopefully that will be as bullish as it's supposed to be!
> 
> GP




Hi GreatPig could you example and explain what a hammer bar is? Cheers


----------



## GreatPig (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> what does a hammer signify?



See here. Scroll down to the bit on hammer.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Gundini (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Who pushed the buy button, and why?

ZFX has rallied $1.80 from its low...

Have "They" decided all is good again?


----------



## motion (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yep I agree CBH & MTN is making a come back, it's like they have just flicked a switch.... very interesting how fast the market can turn around...


----------



## wayneL (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gundini said:


> Who pushed the buy button, and why?



The RBA.
To prop up the market.


----------



## powerkoala (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ags become green with 8% up 
bsm also with 16% up
and mee with 22% up 
who push the "buy" button????
and why you didn't tell me first????


----------



## GreatPig (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> The RBA.
> To prop up the market.



As long as they do it again tomorrow...

GP


----------



## UPKA (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> what does a hammer signify?




If we get a good nite in US tonite, and we could a rally here tomorrow seeing the hammer today.


----------



## insider (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ok so the a bullish day is expected tomorrow...


----------



## tcoates (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Might not be the final end point for the XAO but have a bottom now (todays low) worth re-testing in the following week(s).

Tim


----------



## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoaates_au said:


> Might not be the final end point for the XAO but have a bottom now (todays low) worth re-testing in the following week(s).
> 
> Tim



Absolutely!


----------



## insider (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think I have a new expected bottom which is 5200 points... 5600 is easily achievable


----------



## UPKA (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What I'm worried about is that the sell off was caused by the computer glitch in SFE btw 12-2pm, the caused traders to sell stocks. so was it a fake bottom? may be this is not the end! Just like in Feb, the sell off on Wall St wasnt caused by China, by a computer glitch, i really dont know wat to think of the market now...


----------



## powerkoala (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> Ok so the a bullish day is expected tomorrow...




are u sure?
are we there yet?
pls tell me then i will come out.
still hiding under my pillow though


----------



## wayneL (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



UPKA said:


> If we get a good nite in US tonite, and we could a rally here tomorrow seeing the hammer today.



Dow future are down 76 and SP futures down 9. Doesn't mean a hell of a lot at this stage, but don't start counting chickens just yet.


----------



## UPKA (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Dow future are down 76 and SP futures down 9. Doesn't mean a hell of a lot at this stage, but don't start counting chickens just yet.




consider it up, it was at -200pts when our market opened. bt the u can hardly tell anything from teh futures....


----------



## CanOz (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Really seems to hinge on the Yen...still testing support on the USD/JPY chart.

Cheers,


----------



## trinity (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/08/16/1186857663339.html?sssdmh=dm16.274171

Someone is optimistic ... and, I do hope he is right too...


----------



## GreatPig (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well there's the hammer anyway.

Impressive if nothing else... 

Cheers,
GP


----------



## CanOz (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trinity said:


> http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/08/16/1186857663339.html?sssdmh=dm16.274171
> 
> Someone is optimistic ... and, I do hope he is right too...





As Wayne says...MUPPET!


----------



## insider (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My view on charting is that it is a system that is based on conformity... A lot of chartists are simply relying on everyone to conform an the same priciples... It doesn't have any real merit in many situations because if the DOW went down tonight the XAO will fall again tomorrow and this time hugely...


----------



## spooly74 (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> My view on charting is that it is a system that is based on conformity... A lot of chartists are simply relying on everyone to conform an the same priciples... It doesn't have any real merit in many situations because if the DOW went down tonight the XAO will fall again tomorrow and this time hugely...




I`m not so sure about that, there was some real strength in the afternoon to finish nearly 4% of its lows  .
Never seen such a double act!


----------



## ozambersand (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It was real scary watching it. 

Maybe the Future Fund was acting as our very own Plunge Protection Team???


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> My view on charting is that it is a system that is based on conformity... A lot of chartists are simply relying on everyone to conform an the same priciples... It doesn't have any real merit in many situations because if the DOW went down tonight the XAO will fall again tomorrow and this time hugely...




I must disagree.

Support and resistance lines can be seen to provide guidance to market action. See my yesterday post where I suggested 5500 and 5000 as next support levels. Its not tea leaves as opposed to fundamental analysis whereby the market plummets with the lowest p/e for some time and reasonable earnngs predicted on capital investment going forward. Anyone who doesn't follow the charts at least for guidance to a fundamental approach is "brave".  If the market provides support at this level then forward analysis can be done after further market action. If it falls then 5000 is next support. If it goes through 5000 then we are into unknown territory.

Garpal


----------



## Bush Trader (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's an interesting question, what was really behind the ralley this arvo.

I thought of something interesting this arvo whilst I was out in the paddock wishing that we wern't looking down the barrel of another dought.

Does anyone think that it was future fund money that was injected into the market that has been on the sidlines after TII?

Food for thought


Cheers


BT


----------



## Kimosabi (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I personally think that once the fat lady stops singing the XAO will be back down to 3,500...


----------



## chops_a_must (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bush Trader said:


> Here's an interesting question, what was really behind the ralley this arvo.
> 
> I thought of something interesting this arvo whilst I was out in the paddock wishing that we wern't looking down the barrel of another dought.
> 
> ...




That money is in a hedge fund in the US, and no-one can be sure as to its safety...

I doubt that's what it was today.


----------



## Bush Trader (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> That money is in a hedge fund in the US, and no-one can be sure as to its safety...
> 
> I doubt that's what it was today.




That was smart of treasurer Costello, He should have ordered his minions to put it all into NWE, hey chops!


----------



## chops_a_must (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> That money is in a hedge fund in the US, and no-one can be sure as to its safety...
> 
> I doubt that's what it was today.



Although it could explain the "hardware" being "installed".

Maybe some fund manager got an emergency late night call. Lol!


----------



## chops_a_must (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bush Trader said:


> That was smart of treasurer Costello, He should have ordered his minions to put it all into NWE, hey chops!




You can't argue with its performance.


----------



## wavepicker (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For those interested in EW, this is my take on the long term pattern of the XAO. It calls for a third wave to have just completed. The alternate scenario calls for a 5 wave structure to have completed. Makes little difference really because both have bearish implications for the short to medium term, only the degree of trend is different.

In this chart one case see what I have labelled as red wave 2(crash of 87). This was a savage correction as most wave 2's are. In Elliott parlance though, it's a strong guideline that if wave 2 is sharp, then wave 4(red wave 4 in this case which is now) might be a sideways or complex move. This is why IMO this market will be choppy and had to navigate for investors in the next few years. Now this is not cast in stone, it just happens more often than not. It happened in the DJIA in the late 60's after the 20 year bull run out of the depression lows, running into then late 70's (the so called bear market of the 70's) which was a choppy sideways mess that made buy and holders very frustrated.

The interesting aspect of this chart, is that if this is actually the case then this is the first leg down if this ends up being a sideways market eventually.This might finish around 4450/4500 if it turns out as expected(0.382 level).

In post #1002 I posted another chart of the XAO. This was a statistical Cycle analysis chart. That chart measures an intrument as it moves from one extreme to another, similar to a pendulum. You will notice that the lowest of the 3 green lines under the pink line is also 4450/4500 and has confluence with this chart( @ the 0.382 fib level of the range of the red 3rd wave) Just looking at this chart, it's clear to see that the price data is "contained" between the outer bounds of these envelopes 95% of the time. As such it would have a very low probability of staying out of these bounds for an extended period.

Just some ideas


----------



## theasxgorilla (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Although it could explain the "hardware" being "installed".




I actually can't believe they did that in the middle of the day in this market...was anyone else who watches the SPI noticing anything odd with their feeds prior to the outage???


----------



## vicb (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The most stupid thing I ever saw. Why?
It would be a stupid thing to do on flat week but now???


----------



## tech/a (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Waves.*
A good longterm snap shot.
The retracement could well be 50% or 61.8% in the extreme.
However currently 38.2 is the first longterm level to watch,until proven otherwise.
This ensuing bear market is likely to last years.
I've seen a couple of counts Waves and all as you do see this as a wave 3 correcting to wave 4 in the longterm.


----------



## professor_frink (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> I actually can't believe they did that in the middle of the day in this market...was anyone else who watches the SPI noticing anything odd with their feeds prior to the outage???




everything was fine. They even gave us advance warning of the outage. The exchange should be able to cope with the high volume at the moment, as volume at rollover time is higher than what we saw today.


----------



## -merry (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/14/news/international/pluggedin_gumbel_contagion.fortune/index.htm


----------



## tcoates (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

More interesting links (this one is for the S&P500)

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/petch/2007/0814.html

Tim

PS. I was looking for stuff on fibonacci time extensions when I came upon this link. If anyone has a useful link on this topic could they PM me. Thanks.


----------



## CanOz (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is anybody aware of the beautiful swan dive that the USD/JPY pair just did?

SPI Futures down too, just went short....again

Cheers,


----------



## dhukka (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Is anybody aware of the beautiful swan dive that the USD/JPY pair just did?
> 
> SPI Futures down too, just went short....again
> 
> Cheers,




traders in NY just showed up for work


----------



## CanOz (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> traders in NY just showed up for work




I think this thing could go alot lower...we're still not to the May 06 lows yet...with the possibility/rumour of a US rate cut on traders minds...who knows how low it could go...i think its being priced in now


----------



## dhukka (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This one is for those of you out there like me who earn your money in yen. I'm no chartist but this looks very pretty indeed.


----------



## hacheln_mice (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The AUD/JPY just crapped itself.  The XAO could be following suit big time tomorrow if the AUD doesn't jump back within the weekly channel starting from 2000.


----------



## wavepicker (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> *Waves.*
> A good longterm snap shot.
> The retracement could well be 50% or 61.8% in the extreme.
> However currently 38.2 is the first longterm level to watch,until proven otherwise.
> ...





Thanks Tech,  as you say the fib level might well be important. Not just from an EW viewpoint but togther with the confluence of other methodologies too.

My thinking is this market has made a capitulation low today or if it hasn't then will do in 2-3 days after a few minor subdivsions are mopped up. Perhaps use this as springboard for a countertrend rally into late Sept/early October before another major wave C leg takes hold on the downside. There seems to be a major timecycle termination in November which might finish this leg down.

Cheers


----------



## insider (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How long do you guys think the bounce will last... or is it a return to the bulls?


----------



## wayneL (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

dhukka, halcheln, CanOz,

Staring slackjawed at the JPY/EVERYTHING action.

This is not good.


----------



## chops_a_must (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> How long do you guys think the bounce will last... or is it a return to the bulls?



It'll bounce like an anvil does on water.


----------



## dhukka (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> dhukka, halcheln, CanOz,
> 
> Staring slackjawed at the JPY/EVERYTHING action.
> 
> This is not good.




On the contrary wayne - great stuff. Actually the AUD/JPY is only back to where it was in September last year - hoping for a little more strength in the yen yet.


----------



## insider (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> It'll bounce like an anvil does on water.




what's an anvil?


----------



## springhill (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> How long do you guys think the bounce will last... or is it a return to the bulls?




LOL OMG that is such an optimistic point of view its nearly absurd to even consider  after today and the sheer panic that set in, the bulls have well and truly been put in their pens, bargain hunters out in force this arvo. Peoples faith in the ASX has been rattled to the bone and will take a long time for them to have the confidence to face the market again, especially mum and dad investors. I dont think we have seen the worst, but are not far off it IMO. I hope the bulls do return, but this was a purge we needed to have


----------



## insider (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> what's an anvil?




Oh an AN-VIL  yeah they can float... if the water was frozen


----------



## chops_a_must (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> what's an anvil?



It's a big metal thing that lands on cartoon characters...


----------



## wayneL (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> On the contrary wayne - great stuff. Actually the AUD/JPY is only back to where it was in September last year - hoping for a little more strength in the yen yet.



Oh it's great to trade, but a worry otherwise.

I don't mean this to sound patronizing, but my concerns extend beyond my back pocket.


----------



## aaronphetamine (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey insider, when can you take my car into your west coast customs hanger and pimp my ride ?


----------



## insider (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I do miss the bulls... That's the only time I made money... Now I gotta settle for ING's savings maximizer account... I was sitting on a 1400% return and now I gotta settle for 6%... sorry i meant 6.15%


----------



## insider (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No no we don't pimp rides... We ride pimps instead... much better mileage...


----------



## numbercruncher (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Ahead of the opening bell, the Commerce Department reported home builders in July started construction on the fewest number of new homes in more than a decade, with housing starts falling 6.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.381 million.
> 
> In other early data, the Labor Department said first-time applications for state jobless benefits climbed for last week for a third week in a row to their highest level since June 16.




http://www.nasdaq.com//aspxcontent/newsstory.aspx?textpath=20070816\ACQDJON200708160915DOWJONESDJONLINE000524.htm&cdtime=08%2f16%2f2007%20+9%3a15AM


----------



## insider (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The DOW is Down on the open...


----------



## springhill (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> The DOW is Down on the open...




To be honest Insider i was expecting it to be worse, but then again they have a full days trading ahead of them to crumble :bricks1:


----------



## BentRod (16 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just about everytime the futures have been sharply lower we have had a bounce lately.

wait and see I spose.


----------



## BIG BWACULL (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> No no we don't pimp rides... We ride pimps instead... much better mileage...



All good till you blow the O Ring


----------



## dhukka (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Oh it's great to trade, but a worry otherwise.
> 
> I don't mean this to sound patronizing, but my concerns extend beyond my back pocket.




I understand what you mean, my thoughts have been dominated by my back pocket recently.


----------



## dubiousinfo (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Can somebody check the radar screen. Any helicopters on the horizon ?


----------



## wayneL (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> I understand what you mean, my thoughts have been dominated by my back pocket recently.



Well I must admit, my back pocket gets priority too. 

Worrying about all else comes second.


----------



## BentRod (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dubiousinfo said:


> Can somebody check the radar screen. Any helicopters on the horizon ?




The chopper is MIA.

S&P is down 33 ATM.

Brutal.

Interested to see how the close goes.


----------



## Sean K (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I can not help but think there are some long term bargains looming for those with cash. I traded banks yesterday, but I'm almost tempted to buy and hold today. Looks like capitulation across the board to me. Hmmmmm


----------



## wayneL (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I can not help but think there are some long term bargains looming for those with cash. I traded banks yesterday, but I'm almost tempted to buy and hold today. Looks like capitulation across the board to me. Hmmmmm



Doesn't look like capitulation to me. Just steady controlled (but heavy) selling.

I reckon a capitulation low would be a 600 point (or more) day on The Muppet Index (Dow)


----------



## theasxgorilla (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Doesn't look like capitulation to me. Just steady controlled (but heavy) selling.
> 
> I reckon a capitulation low would be a 600 point (or more) day on The Muppet Index (Dow)




The Muppet Index...I like it


----------



## wayneL (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> The Muppet Index...I like it




Hahaahha!

Priceless!


----------



## Sean K (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> The Muppet Index...I like it



Is that the Cramer cooking show?


----------



## chops_a_must (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> The Muppet Index...I like it





I think this is more apt:



Ahahahahahaha!

Looks like the Cookie Monster has his shorts on, and the muppets are having their cores handed back to them...


----------



## wayneL (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> I think this is more apt:
> 
> Ahahahahahaha!
> 
> Looks like the Cookie Monster has his shorts on, and the muppets are having their cores handed back to them...





It's looks like the post grad course at Hogwarts


----------



## dubiousinfo (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like the ben and the PPT finally got back from lunch. Dow looks to be coming back for the close.


----------



## wavepicker (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ahhhh.....

There is nothing like seeeeing red first thing in the morning. But according to our marvelous treasurer this is just a correction, so there is nothing to wory about, is there??


----------



## wayneL (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dubiousinfo said:


> Looks like the ben and the PPT finally got back from lunch. Dow looks to be coming back for the close.




Looks like the Plunge Exacerbation Team fell asleep on the job.


----------



## wavepicker (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Looks like the Plunge Exacerbation Team fell asleep on the job.




Either that, or they have cut there hands too much catching a very sharp falling knife and backed off


----------



## Kauri (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting day coming up, do we follow Europe i.e FTSE off 4%... the LME down significantly across the board.. or the U.S where the printing presses are running hot ..???
 Cheers
.Kauri


----------



## tech/a (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Watching the crowd behaviour is interesting.

Once stock appears great value then in come buyers.
Cautiously at first.
Stock gets to a point that even the most bearish see value.
This happened yesterday and will happen today.
The constant yet often very predictable "Crowd Behaviour" can be seen in Waves and cycles.

You can clearly see the difference between this move and the last at around 6000.

The pullback is longer deeper and more drawn out.
You'll find the "Bounce" will be shallower and not as well supported as before.
For those that can read the market its exciting times.
Volatility is king to short term Tape readers.
This sort of volatility is pretty rare.
Indexes,Stocks,Currencies all at once.


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Watching the crowd behaviour is interesting.
> 
> For those that can read the market its exciting times.
> Volatility is king to short term Tape readers.
> ...




I have never had such a poor win/lose ratio as the last week. Yet I doubt I have ever made as much money. If you get on a ride the intraday ranges are so big one good one makes up for 10 bad (if you stick to your stops). 
For some these are the best of times.


----------



## Magdoran (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have to say, the US market looks like it had a huge reversal day too.  Of course this low is likely to be retested, and how that pans will tell us a lot about the trend.  

This sort of heavy downside testing can wash out the sellers (to an extent that reads clean out the smaller players and the not liquid unhedged leveraged players).

However, given the 7% move down in copper overnight, and the 2-3% move down in various oil futures around the world, this cannot auger well for the resource sector, having seen significant bearish drives in nickel and to some extent zinc over the past 6 months.

I wonder how much of this is a knee jerk reaction to the equity markets?  The two tend to move in generally opposite cycles (commodities and equities), but not always.

For me, I’m focusing more on the weekly chart for the XAO, hence there are several scenarios to consider.  These are basically that this move down might be THE low and see a failed retest that is not taken out later (higher low) and resumes the bull market (maybe as late as the end of the year), or this is the first leg of an ABC or 5 wave structure down, with more downside to come along the lines wavepicker has been indicating.  The other alternative is some kind of basing/consolidation pattern with a lot of chop till it resolves (one plausible scenario is a final weak wave 5 of the bullish drive that either fails, or makes a marginal high or double top).

For me the jury is still out since I haven’t had the time to fully examine this to the level I need to.  Hence I’m retaining a flexible posture to go either way depending on how the next few days pan out.  I do have clear cycles running in the US and European markets, and for the XAO.  The challenge for me now is to do the due diligence and construct a forecast based on the culmination of all I’m seeing.

Interestingly if you look at a lot of the resource stocks (BHP, OXR, ZFX), these all displayed a kind of reversal yesterday, finding support and some even moving into positive territory.

Given the pounding of the commodities (LME futures in particular), I wonder how this will effect these stocks over the next few days.  I have to say the effect could mean further downside if these commodities do not recover soon.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## UPKA (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> However, given the 7% move down in copper overnight, and the 2-3% move down in various oil futures around the world, this cannot auger well for the resource sector, having seen significant bearish drives in nickel and to some extent zinc over the past 6 months.




Copper has rebounded in early trade, up 10% now. once the market settles, the resources will bounce right up with it.


----------



## Magdoran (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



UPKA said:


> Copper has rebounded in early trade, up 10% now. once the market settles, the resources will bounce right up with it.



Which market? - I focus on the LME personally... Other markets do odd things, but I'd argue the LME is pretty good as the leader... others may differ...


----------



## waz (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The XAO has had 5 changes in direction in the last 1.5 hours

opened up, went down, went up, went down, and now up again, all within a tight band.
now its only up 2.8 looks like today we will close just flat if people cant make up their minds. It looks like any resources losses will be offset by banking sector gains.

Is it safe to say the banking sector reached its turning point yesterday?
we will find out monday


----------



## insider (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Because the DOW last night still fell in the red... We should just call all the markets around the world The Dow Jones...


----------



## springhill (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



waz said:


> The XAO has had 5 changes in direction in the last 1.5 hours
> 
> opened up, went down, went up, went down, and now up again, all within a tight band.
> now its only up 2.8 looks like today we will close just flat if people cant make up their minds. It looks like any resources losses will be offset by banking sector gains.
> ...




Perhaps this suggests that the market is at exactly where it should be at the moment, taking a calming breather. There seems to be an armwrestle between bulls and bears to see who takes control. The bears have fear on their side to push them and the bulls have opportunity. All seems very ying/yang to me. I for one am comfortable with how this is playing out would hate to see a large push up or down in the next week as either would be destined to fail IMO


----------



## professor_frink (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



springhill said:


> Perhaps this suggests that the market is at exactly where it should be at the moment, taking a calming breather. There seems to be an armwrestle between bulls and bears to see who takes control. The bears have fear on their side to push them and the bulls have opportunity. All seems very ying/yang to me. I for one am comfortable with how this is playing out would hate to see a large push up or down in the next week as either would be destined to fail IMO




There are quite a few phrases that come to my mind to describe today's market action. Calming breather is not one of them!


----------



## rub92me (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> There are quite a few phrases that come to my mind to describe today's market action. Calming breather is not one of them!



Yep, looks more like the first steps of a 1 year old. Up. Oops fell down again.  Let's try this again, etc.


----------



## Awesomandy (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rub92me said:


> Yep, looks more like the first steps of a 1 year old. Up. Oops fell down again.  Let's try this again, etc.




For those who don't trade on the volatility, it's probably a better idea to just go on a fishing trip now, and come back after the market has made up its mind.


----------



## spooly74 (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> For those who don't trade on the volatility, it's probably a better idea to just go on a fishing trip now, and come back after the market has made up its mind.




No way Andy.

The fish will still be there next week but the markets don`t often act like this.

Tryng to take in as much as possible, and cheers for all the informed commentary and analysis on this thread 

Glued to the screen


----------



## MS+Tradesim (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Can't be bothered posting a chart but I wonder about the thoughts of experienced traders who do TA on the XAO. What I'm looking at on the 5min chart for today looks like a downwards sloping triangle. Baseline around 5650ish. Thinking it could go either way from here but if it breaks downwards initial target around 5500. Any thoughts?


----------



## IFocus (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is a chart XAO monthly semi log

Not trying to alarm, I am not a bear valuations at the top end don’t suit a serious crash but you never know emotion is a powerful driver.

The real support is 3500 to turn this move into a real bear market that needs to be broken I think.

Pink lines are the 50% / 61.8 % Fib retracements, running the fib over the chart it tends to fit quite nicely which increase’s the probability that it may mean some thing.

One last thought, I have friends who have used fundaments successfully over a long time (think early 80’s) absolutely love these types of conditions. You know 1987, the Russian / Asian / 9/11 etc things.  They keep a list of company’s they want to own with entry prices they think is beyond reason but reachable in a falling market driven by fear.
In other words they have a trading plan to steer them through such occasions made out long before.

I am not that clever and can only trade what the chart is telling me now……

Hope this helps
Focus


----------



## Awesomandy (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



spooly74 said:


> No way Andy.
> 
> The fish will still be there next week but the markets don`t often act like this.
> 
> ...




Of course, it's definitely a good idea to stay around to learn as much as we can. My previous comment refers more to the monetary side of things rather than its literal meanings - just keep the cash out of the market for those who don't trade on volatility.  (Well, it appears that my brain is in its usual Friday afternoon mode)

I'm still at work, so no charts here, but if you look at the intra-day chart today, it looks a bit more like a chart of 3 months worth of action - a descending triangle has formed, with support at ~5650. 

And, if you ignore the spikes at the start of the day, you can also see a downward channel, with multiple lower highs and lower lows.


----------



## theasxgorilla (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> Because the DOW last night still fell in the red... We should just call all the markets around the world The Dow Jones...




Haven't you been paying attention Insider?  Its The Muppet Index.   The S&P500 actually closed up .32%, which is why the Dow has been unofficially renamed.


----------



## insider (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Haven't you been paying attention Insider?  Its The Muppet Index.   The S&P500 actually closed up .32%, which is why the Dow has been unofficially renamed.




hehehe... well it seems the muppets are the puppeteers... but of course I was serious about the whole renaming thing


----------



## Awesomandy (17 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I wonder if it means anything, but the XAO and XJO are now in parity again. They closed at 5670.3 and 5671 respectively. As discussed earlier, we could see that the XJO dropping more each time there was a fall in the past couple of months, but now, XJO has recovered, and is now in parity with XAO again. So, if we assume that the earlier discussions to be correct, can we now say that the smart money is back into the market (and may be even that the bull is going to recover)?


----------



## >Apocalypto< (18 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> I wonder if it means anything, but the XAO and XJO are now in parity again. They closed at 5670.3 and 5671 respectively. As discussed earlier, we could see that the XJO dropping more each time there was a fall in the past couple of months, but now, XJO has recovered, and is now in parity with XAO again. So, if we assume that the earlier discussions to be correct, can we now say that the smart money is back into the market (and may be even that the bull is going to recover)?




maybe due to the fact that the top stocks lost so much and became very attractive to bargain hunters.

*look out, monday looks like a buying fest!*


----------



## GreatPig (18 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Maybe a spike open then a drop off?

Love to have the time to sit and play with it, but I have to work, and the NAB trading platform will likely be too slow again to be able to safely trade fast moving prices anyway.

GP


----------



## Jadefox (18 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Thanks Tech,  as you say the fib level might well be important. Not just from an EW viewpoint but togther with the confluence of other methodologies too.
> 
> My thinking is this market has made a capitulation low today or if it hasn't then will do in 2-3 days after a few minor subdivsions are mopped up. Perhaps use this as springboard for a countertrend rally into late Sept/early October before another major wave C leg takes hold on the downside. There seems to be a major timecycle termination in November which might finish this leg down.
> 
> Cheers



\

Waves,

Which timecycle period are you refering to?


----------



## wavepicker (18 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Jadefox said:


> \
> 
> Waves,
> 
> Which timecycle period are you refering to?





This is an overlap period of various cycles as follows:-

-19 Year 5 month cycle
-4 year Cycle
-1 Year Cycle
-4 Month cycle
-1 Month cycle


to name but some

The same overlap period was evident for the peak, that is also a reason why this fall was expected approx this year by those that use this method of cycles.

The 19 year cycle(Metonic) is everywhere you look in markets. For example look at Gold that peaked in 1980 and bottomed in 1999. The last stockmarket crash was in 1987 this one now is just over 19 years and 5 months later. Aussie dollar topped in 1988 and now again 19 years and 5 months approx after


----------



## springhill (18 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> The last stockmarket crash was in 1987 this one now is just over 19 years and 5 months later.




Little too soon to be calling this one a crash IMO
Call it a crash when it actually crashes .... for now its a correction


----------



## wavepicker (18 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



springhill said:


> Little too soon to be calling this one a crash IMO
> Call it a crash when it actually crashes .... for now its a correction




 Just gave some examples of the cycle length,  for some I am sure it feels like a crash


----------



## numbercruncher (18 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Just gave some examples of the cycle length,  for some I am sure it feels like a crash





lol yes , especially all those muppets that where/are leveraged up to the eye balls - Guess thats the benefits of going pty ltd


----------



## insider (18 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> lol yes , especially all those muppets that where/are leveraged up to the eye balls - Guess thats the benefits of going pty ltd




I was going through a magazine a full page ad for CFD's was in there... "with as little as $300 you will have a $10,000 Buying Power using leverage with us" I'm 50% sure this is not just any correction... i know of Push Bike Couriers that invested in Uranium... What a laugh, I think this is a signal to get out while we're ahead... just my opinion


----------



## Jadefox (18 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> This is an overlap period of various cycles as follows:-
> 
> -19 Year 5 month cycle
> -4 year Cycle
> ...





Thanks Waves


----------



## springhill (19 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> I'm 50% sure this is not just any correction... i know of Push Bike Couriers that invested in Uranium... What a laugh, I think this is a signal to get out while we're ahead... just my opinion




I guess that means you are 50% sure that it IS just a correction .... and you think this is a signal to stay in. Talk about having a foot in both camps!! No disrespect intended


----------



## wavepicker (19 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



springhill said:


> I guess that means you are 50% sure that it IS just a correction .... and you think this is a signal to stay in. Talk about having a foot in both camps!! No disrespect intended




Only one problem, by the time most decide this more than a correction,  it will be too late. So next couple months/weeks will be a time for decision for most. Will a rally bring a buying opportunity OR will it simply be the last chance to sell before getting cleaned up by another leg down?

Good luck......


----------



## Awesomandy (19 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Only one problem, by the time most decide this more than a correction,  it will be too late. So next couple months/weeks will be a time for decision for most. Will a rally bring a buying opportunity OR will it simply be the last chance to sell before getting cleaned up by another leg down?
> 
> Good luck......




The way I see it is that, it's probably best to sell now. Even if the market rebounces now, it will still have its down days. If it's a crash, then you've sold out, and it's not too bad. If it trades in a range, either you'll have to trade on the volatility, or you would make more money in a bank. If it goes up again, it is still going to be quite volatile, and then it would just be a matter of picking the next low in the uptrend to reenter the market. There is an off-chance of the market just shoots up to levels in the past, but given that the credit problems won't be solved overnight, I see this scenario as extremely unlikely.


----------



## CFD (19 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> ~~
> The 19 year cycle(Metonic) is everywhere you look in markets. For example look at Gold that peaked in 1980 and bottomed in 1999. The last stockmarket crash was in 1987 this one now is just over 19 years and 5 months later. Aussie dollar topped in 1988 and now again 19 years and 5 months approx after




Hang on, you're giving credence to a 19 yr cycle when it's 19 yrs from peak to bottom, peak to peak and bottom to bottoms.


----------



## tech/a (19 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> it will be too late.




*Already is!!*


----------



## Kauri (19 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As I have posted previously the XAO getting ahead of the XJO was one of many warning signs to me that all was not well.... I notice that now they are both around the same level. Not withstanding the weightings etc the All Ords has by definition the ASX200 in it... so the main difference for mine is the XAO includes the more spec (relatively) issues in it. Does the fact that the XJO has now bridged the gap mean that money is flowing back into the top-end, and/or the small punters on the speccie stocks have got a dose of cold feet/ margin calls/liquidity problems of their own, and are bolting?? Time alone will tell, but I doubt that anyone who seriously trades the markets believes that this is the end of the problem.
  On the Fed dropping the rate and the subsequent rally in the U.S markets, I suspect it was only making the rate official after they had actually effectively dropped the rate by injecting more cash/liquidity than was needed. A feel-good/confidence rally that ignores the fact that there are still the bulk of the worldwide mob that are still in up to their eyeballs in CDO type securities yet to go public on at least their involvement, let alone the depth of it. For a possible hint of the Feds actual thoughts on the Fed fund rate keep an eye on the actual rate compared to the Feds official rate, if they pump in more liquidity and keep it below the official rate, another cut may be on the cards, with the resultant "traders bonanza" knee-jerk market reaction....
   Above are my fundementally challenged musings only after a hard night on the turps....
  Cheers
....Kauri


----------



## Sean K (19 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> ....... Time alone will tell, but I doubt that anyone who seriously trades the markets believes that this is the end of the problem......................... if they pump in more liquidity and keep it below the official rate, another cut may be on the cards, with the resultant "traders bonanza" knee-jerk market reaction.... Above are my fundementally challenged musings only after a hard night on the turps....
> Cheers
> ....Kauri



General consensus does seem to be more paain to follow over the coming months, but is that just people jumping on a bandwagon....there's still lots of noise and fear out there.....I agree, a full interest rate cut is on the cards, I wonder what GS will do? He seems confident that inflation is a bigger risk than US credit, and he knows more than me about tax and stuff......what's the budgie saying?


----------



## Mofra (19 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Not withstanding the weightings etc the All Ords has by definition the ASX200 in it... so the main difference for mine is the XAO includes the more spec (relatively) issues in it. Does the fact that the XJO has now bridged the gap mean that money is flowing back into the top-end, and/or the small punters on the speccie stocks have got a dose of cold feet/ margin calls/liquidity problems of their own, and are bolting??



Kauri,

For mine it just seems like a bog standard, good ol' flight to quality. Happens anytime volitility rises in the market. The Fed cutting rates should (in the ST/MT) weigh down the US$ which is (historically) bullish for gold (traditional inverse relationship), which should also benefit from some fund inflows as treasuries change their hedging strategy away from the US$ to gold (especially if the Fed continues to cut rates in the coming months).

Cheers


----------



## Kauri (19 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> General consensus does seem to be more paain to follow over the coming months, but is that just people jumping on a bandwagon....there's still lots of noise and fear out there.....I agree, a full interest rate cut is on the cards, I wonder what GS will do? He seems confident that inflation is a bigger risk than US credit, and he knows more than me about tax and stuff......what's the budgie saying?




 Hi Kennas,
              The rate I am talking about is the Fed fund rate that affects interbank lending etc... separate to the FOMC interest rate....  
              The budgie.... hate to say it but he is currently taking a dive... thankfully he is a playfull bugger and not actually falling off the perch...

  Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Captain_Chaza (19 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Mofra said:


> Kauri,
> 
> For mine it just seems like a bog standard, good ol' flight to quality. Happens anytime volitility rises in the market. The Fed cutting rates should (in the ST/MT) weigh down the US$ which is (historically) bullish for gold (traditional inverse relationship), which should also benefit from some fund inflows as treasuries change their hedging strategy away from the US$ to gold (especially if the Fed continues to cut rates in the coming months).
> 
> Cheers




Flight to Quality???

Please point out to me when anybody EVER said anything else!!!

Eg "Flight to Crap"????


----------



## Sean K (19 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Hi Kennas,
> The rate I am talking about is the Fed fund rate that affects interbank lending etc... separate to the FOMC interest rate....
> The budgie.... hate to say it but he is currently taking a dive... thankfully he is a playfull bugger and not actually falling off the perch...
> 
> ...



IRT interest rates, yes, I knew what you meant, I shouldn't have linked my comments about Aus rates to it. I think the US Fed will drop rates but I do not think we will, unless it is more clear that our economy is being effected by the US thingy. You need to talk more to that budgie. Maybe give him some free range fly time!


----------



## wavepicker (19 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CFD said:


> Hang on, you're giving credence to a 19 yr cycle when it's 19 yrs from peak to bottom, peak to peak and bottom to bottoms.




Yes, because this time analysis method is different. It's not measuring from peak to peak, valley to valley, as traditional cycles analysis is done. It's only concerned with points in time(highs or lows) *relative* to a fixed cycle such as calendar month, year etc. More imortantly it shows that there is order in the market as the same time points relative to the cycle repeat into the future.


----------



## nizar (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I wonder where we will stand EOD.
I suspect levels significantly lower than +150.


----------



## insider (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What do you guys think of the Hurricane? Does anyone think that there maybe an effect on the Markets if it gets its way with the 1000+ oil platforms?

Didn't buy anything today... I don't like the volumes... itsa a bit thin


----------



## Sean K (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> I wonder where we will stand EOD.
> I suspect levels significantly lower than +150.



Are we taking bets? $1.00 on 5761.


----------



## nizar (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Are we taking bets? $1.00 on 5761.




5783.

Now, having said that, watch it go to the moon!  LOL


----------



## sails (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> I’m going to be a gutsy here and say there should be temporary support tomorrow for the XAO, since it’s hit some key time angles – not strong support, but enough with such exhaustive moves that some key stocks look like they have exhaustion bars down.
> 
> I’m not saying the bear drive is over (although it may be for a while), but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some reversals and minor moves for some stocks for a couple of days.
> 
> ...




Congratulations Mag on an great call!  Even though, in hindsight, price skidded through your price support, time still worked.   Now we have to see what clues we are given from here.


----------



## bean (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> What do you guys think of the Hurricane? Does anyone think that there maybe an effect on the Markets if it gets its way with the 1000+ oil platforms?
> 
> Didn't buy anything today... I don't like the volumes... itsa a bit thin





I was listening to a program from US financialsence
Anyway one of the guests said that this Hurricane will be a CAT 5 and it will head for the platforms.  I think some platform supply 25% of US Natural gas.
Also on the Nymex just over a week ago the Natural Gas contract.  The volume was huge, what you may see with a high/or low in the market and as he said it wasn't a high


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am surprised to not see more discussion today re the XAO

The XAO opened at 5670 and closed at 5927 *Thats a 257 point Rally! *

Why the lack of chat? Cat caught a few Bears tongues? I'd imagine that quite a few were caught short today,

So what do we think a hard bouncing dead cat?

Or the bottom was found last week?

I don't think we're out of the woods just yet, but I reckon that the "Panic" has left the market, hell today was a clear sign that greed is still prevalent in the mkts


----------



## alankew (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Think that the dead cat died swallowing a super bouncy ball.Dont think it is finished yet though but should give peole who want(ME)the chance to get out of some duds and take a breather.Might only be paper losses but still hard to watch.One day last week I just walked away from the screen and spent the day in the sun and felt much better for it.Congratulations to those people who had the guts to buy in on Friday


----------



## billhill (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Volumes weren't too impressive today so have to be cautious about the upward move even though it was 257 points. The sub prime issue still hasn't gone away so still have to worry about that aswell. Agree that we are probably looking at a dead cat bounce. However IMO the bounce may last a few days barring any more hedge fund collapses in the meantime.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

BHP rallied 7.5% on 26m shares which is above avg volume ie not thin

I used this as a general indicator that most were rallying on avg to above avg buying,

Maybe its because BHP is reporting on Wednesday


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I am surprised to not see more discussion today re the XAO
> 
> The XAO opened at 5670 and closed at 5927 *Thats a 257 point Rally! *
> 
> ...



Lack of chat: Any experienced bears pretty much expect Fed/CB manipulation and/or short covering rallies... par for the course.

"I'd imagine that quite a few were caught short today": You betcha! Most try to short too late and get caught by these rallies.

Bottom found?: Who knows? But plenty of rot to work through yet and many (including me) remain convinced of impending recession. My City of London connections warn of nasty surprises to come, of which even they don't know the extent or location. Backrooms are *weeks* behind and nobody even knows their own true position.


----------



## Wysiwyg (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



billhill said:


> Volumes weren't too impressive today so have to be cautious about the upward move even though it was 257 points. The sub prime issue still hasn't gone away so still have to worry about that aswell. Agree that we are probably looking at a dead cat bounce. However IMO the bounce may last a few days barring any more hedge fund collapses in the meantime.




Yes , a large move on the indices but the individual stocks watchlist made modest to neglible gains.Caution aplenty.


----------



## tech/a (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just a thought.


----------



## insider (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Lack of chat: Any experienced bears pretty much expect Fed/CB manipulation and/or short covering rallies... par for the course.
> 
> "I'd imagine that quite a few were caught short today": You betcha! Most try to short too late and get caught by these rallies.
> 
> Bottom found?: Who knows? But plenty of rot to work through yet and many (including me) remain convinced of impending recession. My City of London connections warn of nasty surprises to come, of which even they don't know the extent or location. Backrooms are *weeks* behind and nobody even knows their own true position.




I have a sneaking suspicion that the recent Cut was simply there to post pone inevitable bankruptcies.. Maybe I'm being too skeptic... 1 day of gains or even a week is still no indication of the end of the turmoil... However in the short term there are plenty of opportunities to make cash... I don't want to risk holding over night...


----------



## EZZA (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hey guys, market has been on a rollercoaster, so wasn't expecting such a big turn around.

for those that reckon we could potentially be looking at a dead cat bounce, anyone have any projections on how low we can go?

i personally don't think we shouldn't see the market drop too much lower, but new lows are potentially on the horizon.


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



EZZA said:


> hey guys, market has been on a rollercoaster, so wasn't expecting such a big turn around.
> 
> *for those that reckon we could potentially be looking at a dead cat bounce, anyone have any projections on how low we can go?*
> 
> i personally don't think we shouldn't see the market drop too much lower, but new lows are potentially on the horizon.



That's the $64,000,000 question... literally, because if anyone new that, $64,000,000 would be easy to bag.

We may have seen the bottom, we may eventually see 3,500, or any point in between.

Nobody knows.


----------



## tech/a (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Wayne*

Those here havent been that far off the mark!!


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> *Wayne*
> 
> Those here havent been that far off the mark!!



On the swings, yes. The eventual bottom remains to be seen.


----------



## chops_a_must (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Lack of chat: Any experienced bears pretty much expect Fed/CB manipulation and/or short covering rallies... par for the course.
> 
> "I'd imagine that quite a few were caught short today": You betcha! Most try to short too late and get caught by these rallies.
> 
> Bottom found?: Who knows? But plenty of rot to work through yet and many (including me) remain convinced of impending recession. My City of London connections warn of nasty surprises to come, of which even they don't know the extent or location. Backrooms are *weeks* behind and nobody even knows their own true position.



I'm not convinced.

Not enough volume for my liking. The rate of buyers today was well below the rate at which people were prepared to sell.

The only one of my blue chips that I follow that had above average volume was ZFX. Perhaps it's short covering? I wouldn't know...


----------



## Kauri (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For some strange reason I actually like the volume.... looks positive to me...   
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## numbercruncher (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Found this interesting ...




> The credit crunch has raised the cost of mortgages even for borrowers with pristine credit and put further downward pressure on home prices. David Adamo, CEO of Luxury Mortgage, a mortgage banker in Connecticut, says that three months ago he could sell a high-quality $3 million mortgage to 20 different banks at an interest rate of 6.75%. Today only two will even consider buying the loans, and they want 10%.




http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/17/markets/risk_returns.fortune/index.htm

You can see why people like RAMS are having such a hard time and getting hammered on there stock prices, we are still to see many of the RAMifications of all this imho


----------



## bean (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



EZZA said:


> hey guys, market has been on a rollercoaster, so wasn't expecting such a big turn around.
> 
> for those that reckon we could potentially be looking at a dead cat bounce, anyone have any projections on how low we can go?
> 
> i personally don't think we shouldn't see the market drop too much lower, but new lows are potentially on the horizon.




Nothing much has changed from last week.  The Fed lowered the rates because the money they were throwing at the banks/markets was not getting to the smaller banks and financial institutions.  It was to ease pressure for the financial markets.  
	
	



```
To stop the possiblity of a Crash not to start a rally.
```
If the FED were so concern they would had lowered the rate sooner.
But they got concerned as the market was on the brink.

Markets hate uncertain times and they have plenty of it at the moment.


----------



## tech/a (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> On the swings, yes. The eventual bottom remains to be seen.





Well I guess we now know the swings and when we know the eventual bottom we will know how close the analysis presented here was/is.


----------



## dhukka (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I am surprised to not see more discussion today re the XAO
> 
> The XAO opened at 5670 and closed at 5927 *Thats a 257 point Rally! *
> 
> ...




I suspect the lack of chat is because today's action was no surprise at all after what we saw in the US and Europe on Friday. A rally was fully expected. Confidence may have returned - for now, but nothing has fundamentally changed from last week. Like WayneL I see a US recession on the horizon. Another mortgage broker went belly up in the US on Saturday whilst another Hedge fund blew up in Europe today. 

Maybe we've seen the bottom, maybe not, too early to tell IMHO.


----------



## numbercruncher (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> 6:44am:  Stock futures point to flat open after big gain that followed Fed cut to discount rate; overseas markets jump.




http://money.cnn.com/index.html


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Strange all this talk of eventual bottom etc while here I am thinking where will the eventual top be?

I whole heartedly agree we are not out of the woods yet, however feel that the drops where overdone, especially in the Blue Chip end of the market,

Looks like I'm a lone Stronger for Longer Resource Bull


----------



## numbercruncher (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nothing wrong with being a resource bull, Iron ore for the win!!


Damn site better bet than Financials anyway (>:


----------



## bean (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am still a resource sector bull
However
Mining companies or explorers need money they chew it up at a fast rate
Money is now tight and will become tighter
How will they raise money (options won't that dilute the stock)
If US goes into a recession yes demand will be there from developing countries but demand will be less.
Why are resource stock hit harder in a downturn people wan't to get liquid.
And the resource is in the ground (it may not come out) you have valued a company base on its resource (based on the resource coming out of the ground)


----------



## Bushman (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bean said:


> Money is now tight and will become tighter
> QUOTE]
> 
> I am yet to see any evidence of money being tight for bankable resource feasos. Please give me an example of a project not getting off the ground in recent times where JORC estimates and production costs made for a viable project?
> ...


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bushman said:


> bean said:
> 
> 
> > Money is now tight and will become tighter
> ...



LOL

That would be valid comment 3-6 months from now. Give it some time, then we'll see if it is affecting projects or not.


----------



## bean (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bushman said:


> bean said:
> 
> 
> > Money is now tight and will become tighter
> ...


----------



## Awesomandy (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> I'm not convinced.
> 
> Not enough volume for my liking. The rate of buyers today was well below the rate at which people were prepared to sell.




There would be quite a few buys to cover around today, I think. As for the volume, well, it's like we are at the farms. Produce has been increasing steadily, and there were bumper crops/livestocks for a few years. Then, suddenly, the rain stopped coming. There's now a drought, and all the farmers are selling their livestocks, since they have no grass/hay to feed them. 

Just when things are starting to look very bleak, there's a downpour lasting 3 days. Farmers rejoyce, and the livestocks market shoot up. A lot of farmers are now holding onto their sheep, cows, etc, hoping that the worst is over, and that more rain would come. At the same time, you have those who are off-loading their livestocks since the higher prices can cover their mortgages, and that, after years of bumper seasons, they believe the drought is likely to continue to a while yet. 

Nobody knows if the drought is over or not, but, given historical weather patterns, in Australia, chances are that the drought is not over yet. I sometimes wonder if there's a correlation between farming and the share market. Shares are called stocks, and the most steady blue chips can be called cash-cows as well. Coincidence? I think not!


----------



## numbercruncher (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Perhaps the lower volume is the direct result of contracting credit markets, less (borrowed) money available to "snap up the bargains" ?


----------



## Kauri (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Perhaps the low volume meant that there were not many sellers, and the fact that the close was at the top of a very tall bar means that the buyers had to keep chasing, bidding higher....
 Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## numbercruncher (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Very plausible Kauri !

I suspect theres alot of nervous money sitting on the side lines too.

The US result tonight will set the tone i guess!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As for those commenting on the tightness of money for Aussie Resource stocks, see my Iron thread I started today,

The Chinese just stumped up $750m for the Mid West Infrastructure plan just so they can get their Iron Ore!


----------



## bean (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> As for those commenting on the tightness of money for Aussie Resource stocks, see my Iron thread I started today,
> 
> The Chinese just stumped up $750m for the Mid West Infrastructure plan just so they can get their Iron Ore!



So  What!!
In a bear market fundamentals go out the door for a while


----------



## theasxgorilla (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bean said:


> So  What!!
> In a bear market fundamentals go out the door for a while




Some would argue this is also the case in a bull market.  The only thing that matters is whether you'll have to pay more for the asset later.


----------



## Bushman (20 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bean said:


> So  What!!
> In a bear market fundamentals go out the door for a while




This is a volatile market, not a bear market. ASX jumped up 4% today, recovering a substantial portion of the losses over the last month. Nothing bearish about that price movement. The next low will tell us more IMO.  

$750m is a long term investment pointing to continued demand for iron ore. It is as much an indicator as subprime defaults. 

Which of the two will most affect Aussie miners? 

Bears are far from stupid.


----------



## dhukka (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> As for those commenting on the tightness of money for Aussie Resource stocks, see my Iron thread I started today,
> 
> The Chinese just stumped up $750m for the Mid West Infrastructure plan just so they can get their Iron Ore!




The Chinese also stumped up $3bn for a share of Blackstone. How's that one working out so far?


----------



## bean (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Some would argue this is also the case in a bull market.  The only thing that matters is whether you'll have to pay more for the asset later.




Yes but what is the share price worth not knowing what you will pay for it later and if the market is in a bear !!!!
Not as much it it is a bull market.
Fundamentals go out the door 
I am a Gold Bull
I know which ones to buy and which ones not to.
I have watchlist coming down to my price range.
I will buy for fundamental reason for those stocks. Resourses will recover not as much and a lot of speculative stocks.  Bye bye birdie could be the case.


----------



## Magdoran (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sails said:


> Congratulations Mag on an great call!  Even though, in hindsight, price skidded through your price support, time still worked.   Now we have to see what clues we are given from here.



Thanks Margaret, 

I fully agree, we need to see what clues come out of this.

I saw that in time and price it looked like it was ripe to reverse.  It didn’t hit a cycle point or key support in time or price, my “hunch” or intuition was based purely on straight charting, but with a sense of how it was moving in price and time.  I expected a reversal on that day, which happened, but I didn’t envisage such a deep capitulation.  

Which is why I couldn’t give the exact price projection in advance for the capitulation, however it did hit a price harmonic which became obvious once it’d happened, but this kind of move has to reveal itself to tell you which one of several possibilities is the dominant one in order to calibrate to determine the probabilities for moves that will occur into the future.  Essentially I need these kind of moves to line up sufficiently to validate a pattern.

The price action on the day confirmed my view that it would reverse that day and find support.  That’s what I saw in TIME (I didn’t have a price, still don’t... yet – the pattern has to unfold to a point I can do this in specific circumstances.  I use time above price). People should remember that in my style, time is often more important to me than price levels.  I see support and resistance in TIME. 

Till people get their head around this paradigm shift, I fully expect people to think this is crazy magic voodoo stuff, rather than what it really is which is the art of understanding how markets trend in time and price, recognising cycles and importantly recognising COUNTER TRENDS (which is actually a really hard concept to learn – don’t just read the words and think about it conventionally, look beyond the obvious meaning to what I’m really getting at).

Incidentally, I just got back from Sydney, and had the visa issued on Monday, so I’m in a chaotic state of turmoil to put the permanent move into action!  (Hence my lack of comments today, but just looked at the bar now).

I’d be very wary of interpreting that this move up is necessarily a resumption of the bull trend.  While I see this as a possibility, I don’t see this as a probability.  I remain neutral right now in a flexible posture until I can see a clear signal of either a continuation of the bull market, or a confirmation of a bear market.  This move could be a counter trend to a strong bear drive in a “C” wave as presented by wavepicker.

Me, I just don’t know... yet.  (Unfortunately I might have to miss all the fun since I’m moving, and may be out of commission for a while till I get set up again).  But for those who can see the support and resistance as I do can trade this little turbulence long and short for a while if they know what they’re doing.  

Trade_IT for example can confirm the real time identification of the majority of the recent turns in the market (particularly the S&P 500) to the day for a while now in private emails.  There are other member’s I have done this with too from time to time when they have sent PMs or requested to be CC’d in on emails between wavepicker and I from time to time on subjects we let newer traders “ride shotgun” with us to help them learn, but not as financial advice to trade, but as a “back stage pass” to see us in action.

I think though that it is dangerous to assume anything at this point.  However, there may be better traders out there than me who know for sure what will happen.  That’s not me, I only work in probabilities, and every moment in the market is unique ala Douglas for me...

But I will say this - there is a lot of resistance around here for the XAO.  Longs need to be wary if short term, and if I was trading this leg up, I’d be taking half profits off around these levels, since this could snap back hard just as easily as rally up strongly.  That low needs to be tested at some point and a higher low come up convincingly with a bullish pattern before I’d be assuming anything bullish at this juncture.  Even then, this could be a short lived extension of a counter trend before wavepicker’s big “C” makes the existing move look like a walk in the park.  The emerging pattern will tell us a lot about what is going on, but it needs to unfold for me...

Currently I have two different dates for the XAO – 23 August or 28 August, and I’m not sure if either are relevant yet (could be just one, both, or neither).  I need to see what the XAO does on these days.  Whatever it does will tell me something.  If I am able to I will comment around these dates before I move if possible and give my best shot interpretation on the run.

Kind Regards



Magdoran


----------



## Magdoran (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I am surprised to not see more discussion today re the XAO
> 
> The XAO opened at 5670 and closed at 5927 *Thats a 257 point Rally! *
> 
> ...



I wasn’t around today to comment, YT, 


Many clearly indicated they saw the capitulation day as a reversal, or didn’t you read the comments on this thread?  This move is an extension of that expression in the market.  Surely this was a glaring probability to everyone reading this thread, and I would have thought to many that a rally up to around these levels was a high probability in the making (perhaps not so much in 1 day, but certainly in this kind of time frame).

Who needed to say anything?  It’d all been said… why comment on the obvious?  Even a complete novice could see what was going on.  I suspect many were just too busy doing than chatting.

Please, why not give your projections in advance too, and see how you fare?  That’d be fun!  Maybe we can learn from you YT!


Mag


----------



## Magdoran (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Lack of chat: Any experienced bears pretty much expect Fed/CB manipulation and/or short covering rallies... par for the course.
> 
> "I'd imagine that quite a few were caught short today": You betcha! Most try to short too late and get caught by these rallies.
> 
> Bottom found?: Who knows? But plenty of rot to work through yet and many (including me) remain convinced of impending recession. My City of London connections warn of nasty surprises to come, of which even they don't know the extent or location. Backrooms are *weeks* behind and nobody even knows their own true position.



Fully agree Wayne...


----------



## Magdoran (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> On the swings, yes. The eventual bottom remains to be seen.



Concur...


----------



## Magdoran (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> I suspect the lack of chat is because today's action was no surprise at all after what we saw in the US and Europe on Friday. A rally was fully expected. Confidence may have returned - for now, but nothing has fundamentally changed from last week. Like WayneL I see a US recession on the horizon. Another mortgage broker went belly up in the US on Saturday whilst another Hedge fund blew up in Europe today.
> 
> Maybe we've seen the bottom, maybe not, too early to tell IMHO.



Concur...


----------



## Sean K (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bean said:


> I know which ones to buy and which ones not to.
> I have watchlist coming down to my price range.



Care to name these bean? Perhaps put the list in the gold thread, with the prices you are going to buy them at. Cheers.


----------



## tech/a (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bean said:


> *Fundamentals go out the door*
> I am a Gold Bull
> I know which ones to buy and which ones not to.
> I have watchlist coming down to my price range.
> *I will buy for fundamental reason *for those stocks.




Is that *REALLY* you Rowan?


----------



## insider (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The XAO seems to be making a run for it... Quick! break its legs!


----------



## GreatPig (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> I just got back from Sydney, and had the visa issued on Monday, so I’m in a chaotic state of turmoil to put the permanent move into action!



You need a visa to move from Melbourne to Sydney? 

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Sean K (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

6000 looks pretty important here. It we don't consolidate around here, and/or break through, then does this then turn into a five wave down? Alternately, if we break up, then correction over! Onward and upward the bull monster climbs!!  

Or not...


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't think we're through yet, US Subprime/Credit jitters may persist for at least another 2 weeks, after that it'll be like Bird Flu, Korea Nuke tests or Terrorism, mkt will get used to it,

I'm not expecting a break above 6000 till end of the week, but then BHP reports full year results tomorow so could go either way on that 1 result alone!


----------



## wayneL (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I don't think we're through yet, US Subprime/Credit jitters may persist for at least another 2 weeks...



Then comes the next phase, as it impinges on growth.


----------



## Kimosabi (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I don't think we're through yet, US Subprime/Credit jitters may persist for at least another 2 weeks




ha, 2 weeks, your dreaming, the subprime debacle has got another 18 months to play out by itself.

Don't be surprised to see some banks blow up, a couple of hundred hedge funds blow up, and some of these private equity deals blow up etc etc


----------



## CFD (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Magdoran said:


> ~~
> People should remember that in my style, time is often more important to me than price levels.  I see support and resistance in TIME. ~~
> Magdoran




I see this as making perfect sense. If I was to nominate a future date, you could see where it is on a time scale. If I was to nominate a future price, you couldn't find it on a price chart or relate it to a place in time. 

People are conditioned to seeing a price prediction as confirmation of a predicted outcome. ie if xxx support does not hold the price will fall.

Not that I have a clue as to your method!


----------



## Gurgler (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have been reading this thread for over a week now and I am in awe, not so much of the knowledge (wrought from experience, I judge) displayed in the postings, but more so in the generosity of those who have shared it with us.

Thank you for your time and effort - in effect devoted to enlightening others. 

I continue to learn.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kimosabi said:


> ha, 2 weeks, your dreaming, the subprime debacle has got another 18 months to play out by itself.
> 
> Don't be surprised to see some banks blow up, a couple of hundred hedge funds blow up, and some of these private equity deals blow up etc etc




Reminds me of May 2006, we were expecting base metals and China to collapse back then, 

Also not too long ago we were expecting Bird Flu to wipe out the world and well "I'm still standing"

Now we're expecting this to wipe out the US financial sector aka the World, 

Looking back on these posts in 3-6months time will be interesting either way


----------



## wayneL (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Now we're expecting this to wipe out the US financial sector aka the World,



We were commenting on straw man arguments in other threads...

POINT*** The financial sector IS taking it where the sun don't shine. For instance, look at this chart for Countrywide Financial Group, USA's largest homelender (not even sub-prime)




**** can happen in financial markets and **** IS happening. The credit markets are an absolute mess and this has yet to fully impact equity markets. It could take months or even years.

Even the high and mighty are being affected. See Goldman sachs:




Markets have shrugged off corrections because of easy credit. It is now time to:
1/Facilitate an orderly unwinding
2/Prop it all up again and further inflate the bubble.

One thing is for sure, if CBs go for option 2 and problems are not addressed, then we could be looking at total meltdown at some point in the future.

I know which I'd prefer.!!


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Reminds me of May 2006, we were expecting base metals and China to collapse back then,
> 
> Also not too long ago we were expecting Bird Flu to wipe out the world and well "I'm still standing"
> 
> ...




Something I posted on my Blog last week,

For the Addicted Bulls. From Wikipedia,

Denial is a defense mechanism in which a person is faced with a fact that is too painful to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence. The subject may deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether (simple denial), admit the fact but deny its seriousness (minimisation) or admit both the fact and seriousness but deny responsibility (transference).The concept of denial is particularly important to the study of addiction.

Have a look at the Charts of anything. Currencies, stocks, Indexes, If you don't see this "correction" as different can you please explain to me how its the same??


----------



## Sean K (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> We were commenting on straw man arguments in other threads...
> 
> POINT*** The financial sector IS taking it where the sun don't shine. For instance, look at this chart for Countrywide Financial Group, USA's largest homelender (not even sub-prime)



Good charts Wayne, Looks like sub prime might be factored in already? :

If Chindia etc is all factored in, then how much of these charts is sub prime/credit related fall factored in? MBL half price, all the banks in Australia smashed, and sub prime has barely touched us. If at all. One hedge fund and a couple of losses. Some of it MUST be factored in. Just how much, may be the question. Do these stocks halve again?


----------



## Bushman (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Something I posted on my Blog last week,
> 
> For the Addicted Bulls. From Wikipedia,
> 
> Denial is a defense mechanism in which a person is faced with a fact that is too painful to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence. The subject may deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether (simple denial), admit the fact but deny its seriousness (minimisation) or admit both the fact and seriousness but deny responsibility (transference).The concept of denial is particularly important to the study of addiction.




Denial is a powerful state of mind.

Here is another definition:

dog·ma (dÃ´gm, dg-)
n. pl. dog·mas or dog·ma·ta (-m-t) 
2. An authoritative principle, belief, or statement of ideas or opinion, especially one considered to be absolutely true. See Synonyms at doctrine.


----------



## nizar (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And the lesson from this correction/crash is...
... Always use stops!


----------



## bean (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For years, greed has been the underlying force in the markets. Now fear is replacing it.
Once underway, fear is an even stronger force. While central banks try to hose down the market's fear-flames with money, it doesn't change the liquidity problem. Lenders fear to lend and borrowers fear to borrow. Money "in the system" is of no real help. Someone has to borrow it. Who will?


"By Harry Schultz, International Harry Schultz Letter"


----------



## insider (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> And the lesson from this correction/crash is...
> ... Always use stops!




Ding ding ding! I concur... My personal lesson was forget about tax discounts like 50% CGT... I already saved more money by selling


----------



## wayneL (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Good charts Wayne, Looks like sub prime might be factored in already? :
> 
> If Chindia etc is all factored in, then how much of these charts is sub prime/credit related fall factored in? MBL half price, all the banks in Australia smashed, and sub prime has barely touched us. If at all. One hedge fund and a couple of losses. Some of it MUST be factored in. Just how much, may be the question. Do these stocks halve again?



Whether it's all factored in I don't know. But I do know backrooms are weeks behind and many instos don't even know their own true position.

As equally as this could be the bottom, it might not... just have to wait and see I guess. I suspect the bigger names (GS et al) could see further downside. But just an opinion on that one.


----------



## numbercruncher (21 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bean said:


> For years, greed has been the underlying force in the markets. Now fear is replacing it.
> Once underway, fear is an even stronger force. While central banks try to hose down the market's fear-flames with money, it doesn't change the liquidity problem. Lenders fear to lend and borrowers fear to borrow. Money "in the system" is of no real help. Someone has to borrow it. Who will?
> 
> 
> "By Harry Schultz, International Harry Schultz Letter"






Exactly and it unleashes that most primal instinct of all, Self Preservation.


----------



## Bushman (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here is an article which is quite balanced on the issue I thought. Echoes what a lot have said on both sides of the argument. Have a read. Amazed by the computer sell downs in '87 and '98. 

Did not realise that the Dow actually showed a marginal gain in CY 1987 (2.26%).

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118756974903802456.html?mod=most_viewed_day


----------



## Awesomandy (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Whether it's all factored in I don't know. But I do know backrooms are weeks behind and many instos don't even know their own true position.




Quite a few places were already a few weeks behind to start off with. Then, there are the fund of funds, which rely on all of their currently held fund to provide at the minimum a reasonable estimate before they can even value their own fund.


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Whether it's all factored in I don't know. But I do know backrooms are weeks behind and many instos don't even know their own true position.



Yes, but this is my point. So far, the big financial institutions have hardly had reason to complain. Growth, profits and earnings. A couple who have direct exposure to US sub prime have reported on it. However, Australian companies who might have links to sub prime have been smashed. If they present some problems, it will be as expected, and they've already been punished. Perhaps they'll get a further whipping, but it seems clear that bad news is already incorporated into the market. We're off 10% without an earnings downgrade anywhere. In fact, many companies are reporting record profits and projecting double digit growth. Again!....:dunno:


----------



## Awesomandy (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> We're off 10% without an earnings downgrade anywhere. In fact, many companies are reporting record profits and projecting double digit growth. Again!....:dunno:




The profits records and earnings forecasts were using numbers up to the year ending 30 June, and the sub prime problems only really started hitting in July. Therefore, I am actually expecting quite a few record profits and high growth forecasts. Just give it a few months, when everyone who has been severely affected by the current credit issues start issuing profit downgrades...


----------



## springhill (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> The profits records and earnings forecasts were using numbers up to the year ending 30 June, and the sub prime problems only really started hitting in July. Therefore, I am actually expecting quite a few record profits and high growth forecasts. Just give it a few months, when everyone who has been severely affected by the current credit issues start issuing profit downgrades...




Sorry i cant agree with that, as the US Mortgage Carnage thread shows, the subprime issue was alive and well back in March, and well before then. So why werent people running for the hills then? No, they decide to risk their money for another 4 months? I think not. This is more a media driven beat up IMO, bad news sells papers. Not to say there isnt some effect from this subprime problem, but the general public has no real idea what lies beneath and are merely jumping at their own shadows.
Ive seen people posting the big money left the building ages a go via the back door. Well judging by the number of Insto shareholding and Director holding increases, IMO they are silently slipping back in, while the plebs quiver in their boots


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



springhill said:


> Sorry i cant agree with that, as the US Mortgage Carnage thread shows, the subprime issue was alive and well back in March, and well before then. So why werent people running for the hills then? No, they decide to risk their money for another 4 months? I think not. This is more a media driven beat up IMO, bad news sells papers. Not to say there isnt some effect from this subprime problem, but the general public has no real idea what lies beneath and are merely jumping at their own shadows.
> Ive seen people posting the big money left the building ages a go via the back door. Well judging by the number of Insto shareholding and Director holding increases, IMO they are silently slipping back in, while the plebs quiver in their boots




 "silently slipping back in" maybe but the average punter does not need to put many hundreds of mil into the market. Most Insto will drip money in to any market because they have to. If they just beat the averages they are geniuses. 
The Average Punter can be fully invested in 10 minutes. I see no reason to not take notice of the mess the market is in and be cautious. I'm pretty sure the aim of most people here is not to beat the averages by 1% per quarter like the Insto but rather,
1. Preserve Capital
2. Make money

You don't make money as a punter beating the averages by a couple of percent if they are down 10%


----------



## powerkoala (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO BREAK 6000 pts
now 6002 and back to 6000 
is this confirming bulls are back?  
or bears pretend to be bulls?


----------



## caleb2003 (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

After watching a bit of Bloomberg last night I have to agree, the media are stoking this fire whenever they can.  The amount of Anal-ysts on their using the sensational words like meltdown, fiasco, disaster etc just to make a name for themselves is ott


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wavepicker. You had today as an important date, think as a possible high  using EW. I had it pegged as danger day months back on the possibility of some nasty selling in the Materials sector. Well I was a bit late on that but still am interested to see what plays out here. 

Whats your thoughts still see this time as important?


----------



## wavepicker (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



springhill said:


> Sorry i cant agree with that, as the US Mortgage Carnage thread shows, the subprime issue was alive and well back in March, and well before then. So why werent people running for the hills then? No, they decide to risk their money for another 4 months? I think not. This is more a media driven beat up IMO, bad news sells papers. Not to say there isnt some effect from this subprime problem, but the general public has no real idea what lies beneath and are merely jumping at their own shadows.
> Ive seen people posting the big money left the building ages a go via the back door. Well judging by the number of Insto shareholding and Director holding increases, IMO they are silently slipping back in, while the plebs quiver in their boots




Totally disagree with your argument here. The media moves the markets, how ridiculous. Once again, another example of someone trying to justify why the market has done what it has done.

The market forces are internal, dynamic, and feed upon themselves. Social trends are pathological, there is nothing you can do start them or stop them. All you can do is participate or get out of the way if positioned in the wrong way.

When time is up the trend must change, if it wasn’t the subprime news worsening then it would have been something else that coincided with a market peak. 
 The warning signs have been there for months/years that this market is an aberration, those that saw this took action earlier, those that got caught up in the trend, becoming euphoric and complacent can deal with the pain.  What were they thinking anyway?? IMO they are in a denial of reality, forever looking for reasons to project the current upward trend into the future. They have only themselves to blame and should be responsible for their actions instead of looking for reasons why the market turned. 
The market turned because it turned, it will do what it wants when it wants to. Trade what you see not what you want or expect to happen.


----------



## wavepicker (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Wavepicker. You had today as an important date, think as a possible high  using EW. I had it pegged as danger day months back on the possibility of some nasty selling in the Materials sector. Well I was a bit late on that but still am interested to see what plays out here.
> 
> Whats your thoughts still see this time as important?





Hello TH

Yes that was 20-22nd August as high. However the time point  "inverted" between that post and now. By that I mean that we got another important time point which was a high on the 31st July. Subsequently the August 20th date then became a low instead , however this came 2-3 days earlier than I expected.

The this rally should persist till the 3rd week of September, perhaps a little beyond as the next rotation which is a high is due then. The next rotation after that which should coincide with a low is appox mid November.  So I am expecting the current trend up to persist if I am reading it correctly, but what sort of trend will this be?? It might be a choppy trend that chews up time until then??. Would at least expect some sort of retest of the lows,let's see.


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Totally disagree with your argument here. The media moves the markets, how ridiculous.



The media has no influencial in our society, including markets? I would hesitantly disagree with that brush. 

Individual investors are influenced by what people say on this forum. Extrapolate that.


----------



## powerkoala (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Hello TH
> 
> Yes that was 20-22nd August as high. However the time point  "inverted" between that post and now. By that I mean that we got another important time point which was a high on the 31st July. Subsequently the August 20th date then became a low instead , however this came 2-3 days earlier than I expected.
> 
> The this rally should persist till the 3rd week of September, perhaps a little beyond as the next rotation which is a high is due then. The next rottation after that which should coincide with a low is appox mid November.  So I am expecting the current trend up to persist if I am reading it correctly, but what sort of trend will this be?? It might be a choppy trend that chews up time until then??. Let's see




thanks for your analysis wavepicker.
seems that buyers convidence are back somehow. 
XAO had been up for the past 3 days.
hope this is a good sign.


----------



## wavepicker (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> The media has no influencial in our society, including markets? I would hesitantly disagree with that brush.
> 
> Individual investors are influenced by what people say on this forum. Extrapolate that.




Ohhhh the media does have influence on our society alright, but it does not move the markets. If it did then I would not waste my studying charts , just think about  it Kennas just read the paper and you know what the market is gonna do the next day!!!!! If only it was that easy


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Ohhhh the media does have influence on our society alright, but it does not move the markets. If it did then I would not waste my studying charts , just think about  it Kennas just read the paper and you know what the market is gonna do the next day!!!!! If only it was that easy



I'm very interested in media/social dynamics and whether it's the public that moves the media, or media moving the people, and I think we could be somewhere in a whirpool situation, where one triggers the other, triggers the other, and momentum kicks in creating a vortex which sucks everything around and down with it. You can't discount the media's influence in creating a crash. If there was NO communication, and interpretation, then we'd be sitting around twiddling our thumbs, wondering what to do. 

In the mean time, we'll continue to overshoot, and undershoot, and it's important to make the most of those opportunites, IMO.


----------



## chops_a_must (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Totally disagree with your argument here. The media moves the markets, how ridiculous. Once again, another example of someone trying to justify why the market has done what it has done.



Almost as ridiculous as an "invisible hand" wouldn't you say?


----------



## wavepicker (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'm very interested in media/social dynamics and whether it's the public that moves the media, or media moving the people, and I think we could be somewhere in a whirpool situation, where one triggers the other, triggers the other, and momentum kicks in creating a vortex which sucks everything around and down with it. You can't discount the media's influence in creating a crash. If there was NO communication, and interpretation, then we'd be sitting around twiddling our thumbs, wondering what to do.
> 
> In the mean time, we'll continue to overshoot, and undershoot, and it's important to make the most of those opportunites, IMO.




Kennas,

What if the devil came to you one day and gave you the newspaper headlines, big stories, economic data for the next year.

Do you think you could successfully trade the market with this information in those 12 months???  Take a headline story of a war for example, there have been headlines about war before and the market has been up a lot, and headlines before and the market has been down a lot?? How do you know??

The answer is simple, you don’t, because it just doesn’t work this way. The only things you need to know are as follows:-

-decide if the market is trending
-participating with that trend
-determine when the trend is at risk of ending


----------



## Bushman (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> The market forces are internal, dynamic, and feed upon themselves. Social trends are pathological, there is nothing you can do start them or stop them. All you can do is participate or get out of the way if positioned in the wrong way.
> 
> The market turned because it turned, it will do what it wants when it wants to. Trade what you see not what you want or expect to happen.




This post is remarkable. To deny a human element in market movements is ludicrous. How can you say that the market will do what it wants to when it wants to? It is not some mythical demigod to be in awe off. It is shaped by human emotion and desire as much as it is shaped by human logic. Those that can stand apart from the rhetoric will do the best. This completely analytical approach to a social science cannot be right.  

To say that the media has no influence on the market is fallacy. The media is the most powerful influence in our society. If you want to take media influence to an extreme, one day read about how the media was used in whipping up genocidal practices in Rwanda, Germany etc. It shapes people's decisions and taps into the primordial fearful response. What do we read about - crime, political scandal, celebrity scandal, market collapses, pandemics, global warming, Y2K. Fear sells newspapers by the truckload and what better combination than fear and financial safety. 

I get the feeling that this is an argument on which neither side will budge so maybe there is not much point in writing this. But I know what has made me fearful in the current climate - screaming headlines of doom and gloom. Maybe it is just me and I am not a cold clinician of a mythical beast that does as it chooses?


----------



## CFD (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> ~~
> Yes that was 20-22nd August as high. However the time point  "inverted" between that post and now. ~~




Does this make the trend from now, more likely to be choppy?


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Kennas,
> -decide if the market is trending
> -participating with that trend
> -determine when the trend is at risk of ending



- It's still trending up
- I've participated in it going up
- I've done my best to participate in it going down (not very successfully - I'm crap at shorts)
- It is at risk of ending

It hasn't ended yet. 

PS, this chart would look much better on a semi log.


----------



## chops_a_must (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bushman said:


> This completely analytical approach to a social science cannot be right.
> 
> I get the feeling that this is an argument on which neither side will budge so maybe there is not much point in writing this. But I know what has made me fearful in the current climate - screaming headlines of doom and gloom. Maybe it is just me and I am not a cold clinician of a mythical beast that does as it chooses?




Well, by definition no analytical analysis applied to any social science can be valid. It just depends where you classify things...


----------



## CFD (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bushman, just to continue the discussion on your view,
"To say that the media has no influence on the market is fallacy.".

I see the media influence sending prices higher than they might otherwise be, or in a down trend sending them lower than might otherwise be the case. However I do not see them reversing anything but a minor trend.

This is one reason why I like WP's view of plotting time rather than price.


----------



## wavepicker (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> - It's still trending up
> - I've participated in it going up
> - I've done my best to participate in it going down (not very successfully - I'm crap at shorts)
> - It is at risk of ending
> ...




I am very happy for you Kennas,

Now please answeer the question in the last post


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Kennas,
> 
> What if the devil came to you one day and gave you the newspaper headlines, big stories, economic data for the next year.
> 
> Do you think you could successfully trade the market with this information in those 12 months???



WP, I don't quite understand the 'question'. 

If ANYONE gave me the headlines for the next 12 months and it was true, I'd be all over it. 

Back to the Future II material. 

Oh, maybe you mean, REAL headlines.

Well, we all have the ability to judge them don't we. Some more than others. I hope I'm in the some zone.


----------



## Bushman (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CFD said:


> Bushman, just to continue the discussion on your view,
> "To say that the media has no influence on the market is fallacy.".
> 
> I see the media influence sending prices higher than they might otherwise be, or in a down trend sending them lower than might otherwise be the case. However I do not see them reversing anything but a minor trend.
> ...




Sorry maybe I did not explain myself well enough. 

I agree with you re the underlying trend. The media accelerates a trend by flaring up spot fires into bush fires with its screaming headlines. This is not to deny a long term trend caused by real underlying issues. To only say it is a media beat up is wrong and to deny the underlying cause and likely effect.  There are sound economic arguments pointing to the fact that the US is living beyond its means. Inevitably it will have an impact on the US economy even if the US Feds relieve the pressure on market liquidity and the US consumer.   

I like the idea of plotting time. In my view price movements in the real time information age or the leveraged hedge fund age will be excacerbated in the short term in times of uncertainty.


----------



## wavepicker (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bushman said:


> This post is remarkable. To deny a human element in market movements is ludicrous. How can you say that the market will do what it wants to when it wants to? It is not some mythical demigod to be in awe off. It is shaped by human emotion and desire as much as it is shaped by human logic. Those that can stand apart from the rhetoric will do the best. This completely analytical approach to a social science cannot be right.
> 
> To say that the media has no influence on the market is fallacy. The media is the most powerful influence in our society. If you want to take media influence to an extreme, one day read about how the media was used in whipping up genocidal practices in Rwanda, Germany etc. It shapes people's decisions and taps into the primordial fearful response. What do we read about - crime, political scandal, celebrity scandal, market collapses, pandemics, global warming, Y2K. Fear sells newspapers by the truckload and what better combination than fear and financial safety.
> 
> I get the feeling that this is an argument on which neither side will budge so maybe there is not much point in writing this. But I know what has made me fearful in the current climate - screaming headlines of doom and gloom. Maybe it is just me and I am not a cold clinician of a mythical beast that does as it chooses?




Actually I never denied human element in market movements, don’t know where you came up with this. It is combined social mood that is important.  As far as logic goes, what happens in the market much of the time is far from logical. In fact what seems logical is usually what does not happen.

Yes the media has a profound impact on society, but it is not what makes markets move. Just think about it newspapers don’t usually don’t tell you what is going to happen, but what has happened. So how on earth anyone uses the media to forecast the market I have no idea.

As for analytical approach it has much merit and goes hand in hand with social science. Firstly an acceptance that there is order in the markets to some degree, and as such at times forecasts with a high probability of succeeding can be made, even though it goes against the grain of the way people such as yourself think.


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> In fact what seems logical is usually what does not happen.



Aren't waves and time based on logic? Since we're getting into the nitty gritty.


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

1228 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% at 6027.9 after hitting 6-day high of 6029.5 on broad-based recovery from early fall to 5964.9. Traders increasingly turning bullish, with index breaking its downtrend line at 5969.0 and leading stocks such as Macquarie Bank, National Australia Bank, CBA, also breaking downtrend lines. Traders again suspect Future Fund has been buying. Results/outlook driving surge in QBE, CSL, Downer, Allco. Short covering evident on Macquarie and Babcock & Brown. Consolidation now expected before BHP results at 0600 GMT. Some traders worried about costs, since Rio Tinto costs blew out. But others focussed on revenue growth and capital management. BHP's reaction to downtrend line, now A$35.97, critical. (DWR


----------



## springhill (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Totally disagree with your argument here. The media moves the markets, how ridiculous. Once again, another example of someone trying to justify why the market has done what it has done.
> 
> The market forces are internal, dynamic, and feed upon themselves. Social trends are pathological, there is nothing you can do start them or stop them. All you can do is participate or get out of the way if positioned in the wrong way.
> 
> ...




Next time before you jump on your one eyed bandwagon wavepicker why dont you read my post properly. Nowhere did I implicitly say the media drives the market. I actually said they were beating the crap out of this situation to drive THEIR OWN SALES. Read it again if u have to. Kinda funny how when things went to **** the other week the activity on this site increased exponentially ie. people seeking clarity and different opinions than the on side printed in the papers and on the news of doom and gloom. Where are the one hit wonders this week? The people asking what should we do? Not interested cos the clouds have lifted somewhat.
I was making the point of the instos slipping back in, which they are undoubtably doing, they are the ones who start upward momentum (as they also do downward), while Joe Average catches on months later.
Im not trying to justify anything the market will act how it wants and my little 15 line post will have no bearing and fade into oblivion, like yours and all the others. Not justifying, discussing!
Dont put words into my argument that were never there


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Traders again suspect Future Fund has been buying.  (DWR




I'm sick of hearing about this. Its a load of ****

What if the future fund investing is actually the perfect contrarian indicator. This Bull has convinced so many people its going to last for ever that even the Bureaucrats are now in on. Its like the mining companies hedging further falls in metal prices right at the bottom of the last bear market in metals.
What if this is the same but reverse. I personally have little faith in Peter Costello and his bean counters timing this thing at anything other than the top of the market.

Yes I know its ran buy smart people. But since when does the government time anything other than when the bull has already bolted. (Pun Defiantly intended)

Just like the tops in the market pull in the last of the retail investors this could be just another one (it is your money=Tax)


----------



## wavepicker (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> If ANYONE gave me the headlines for the next 12 months and it was true, I'd be all over it.




What I am saying is that if knew the headlines in the news before the events actually happened, for the best part you still would have no idea of how to invest yor hard earned. News is of little value, you would probably have an equal chance of succeeding consulting your horoscope.

If you think I am being silly well just go into "Training Mode" on your preferred trading software, scroll the chart back 5 years and grab the news headlines that were current at the time (excluding market data ofcourse) and see how succesfull you are, in other words backtest  it and see if there is any correlation. The answer will surprise you.

Anyway enough of this C.RAP....  I have better things to do


----------



## Kauri (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just as an aside, I got this in todays West Australian newspaper.... a paper that actually, on this occasion, tells it as it is???



> The newswires say there is a "short squeeze" in Macquarie Bank and Babcock & Brown, *the traditional excuse when you don't know*, although there was a positive article on Macquarie Bank in the Wall St Journal overnight and Babcock & Brown are finding their feet again having fallen an unbelievable 49 per cent from top, to bottom. They have results tomorrow and are very likely to dispel myth and imagination and instil a more fundamental confidence.




  Cheers
.....Kauri


----------



## theasxgorilla (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bushman said:


> It is not some mythical demigod to be in awe off. *It is shaped by human emotion and desire as much as it is shaped by human logic. *Those that can stand apart from the rhetoric will do the best. This completely analytical approach to a social science cannot be right.





Most profound Bushman...I like it 

...and don't forget the inevitable _shaping_ effect that 9% of everyone's income having a good chance of finding its way into the market will have.


----------



## IFocus (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> News is of little value




Hi Waves

Hate to be a nit picker but...

Not strictly true, I shared your view until a few years ago I was shown a method of using market moving news trading the Emini that was highly effective. 
Like all good trading ideas it was simplicity in itself.

Focus


----------



## moses (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not sure that I like the look of this...

Candle: Advance Block
Pattern: reversal
Reliability: moderate

Identification
Three white days occur. Each successive day opens within the body of the previous day and closes above the previous day. The bodies of the candles get progressively smaller with the upper shadows of day 2 and 3 getting progressively longer.

The Psychology
Each successive candle is smaller and closes further from its intraday high. This isn't necessarily extremely bearish, but it's certainly less bullish. It hints that the bounce is losing steam because each attempt to rally intraday fails by a greater degree.

The bearish Advance Block is similar to the bullish Three White Soldiers and bearish Deliberation.


----------



## chops_a_must (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> As for analytical approach it has much merit and goes hand in hand with social science. Firstly an acceptance that there is order in the markets to some degree, and as such at times forecasts with a high probability of succeeding can be made, even though it goes against the grain of the way people such as yourself think.



I disagree. I don't think you can have an analytic approach towards the social sciences, as at some time, the analysis will have to be from a perspective. Markets and economics don't exist seperately from us, and hence it is at some point an idealism. And with idealism comes a refutation of the scientific.

Acceptance of order requires an assumption. You can't put the cart before the horse.

Probability is mutually incongruent with social science. However, if you want to equate the markets to number theory, game theory decision theory etc. etc. (and EW works well in these) then probabilbemileismatic away. 

But it's just a load of wank really.

It doesn't change a person's profitability.


----------



## Kauri (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Probably doesn't mean much, but it's fun drawing lines anyway...
 Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## tech/a (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Kauri*
Ah its a sign--Wembly stadium buy Leighton!

*Moses* I think possibly another 100 in it. (points).
For the XAO I have around 6090
No higher than 6190.

Which probably means buy Star Casino!


----------



## IFocus (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The XAO inverted.......


----------



## wavepicker (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Hi Waves
> 
> Hate to be a nit picker but...
> 
> ...




Hi focus, understand where you are coming from, I have been doing similar with regard to FX for 4 years now, ie trading release of economic data etc. The news may cause a "pseudo wave" or movement within a micro trend in the market but in most cases is insignificant over the medium to longer term trend but great if you are highly leveraged to take advantage of the micro move(if you get the direction right). More often than not the release of the news cannot predict which way the market will trend and market will oscillate up and down repeatedly before it settles into any trend either in the logical direction as per what is interpreted by the news or completely opposite. As such many such strategies employ an each way bet of some type or similar strategy.

Once again I say for the most part anyone who had tommorows headlines (not market data) one day advance or even 6 months in advance would still not be able to effectively trade the market IMO

Rober Prechter who has done much work in area of Socionomics and studied social trends for year in detail gives some great examples of this both in his video courses and books, well worth reading.

Cheers


----------



## chatty (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am wondering how the problem in sub-prime mortgage can impact the world/australian economy as a whole.

I myself think it should not be a big issue for Australia/ASX. The banks lend money against home being mortgaged.  Generally, with sub-prime mortgage the banks will seek mortgage insurance to mitigate their risk from the inability to service debt from the borrowers. Even without mortgage insurance,the bank is covered by home mortgaged.The lenders can always get their money back from forclosure.  The maximum loan loss may probably be 10-15%???

And when we compare sub-prime mortgage sector with the rest of the economy.How big is it? Tiny?  

So I think we are not facing liquidity issue yet.Yes, it is gonna be harder from the company like RAMs to seek loans/funds from the lenders but I believe under this economic circumstance, other business sectors in Australia should not have any issue to seek financial fundings.  I believe financial institutions should not have an issue seeking off-shore fundings as the proportion of low-doc loans in Australia are by far less than the US.

If the problem in the US starts from big corporations fail to repay their debts,I think that should be a concern because this big corporations normally can get loans without providing securities against their loans.  In this case,we will start to see the liquidity issue. When big corporations default their loan it means bank will potentially loss 100% of their fundings which will affect the depositors/investors.  Then, the whole economy.

Regarding the concern about Chinese market bubble, is it really bubble? Are the investors there using CFD,margin call a lot?  I suspect they have no where to bank their money as they can't really invest their money overseas (except the government), can they? So where else can their money go to?

China is in the situation where the government has huge reserves, the investors have a lot of cash there they don't know where to go and that drive         its PE ratio to nearly 40.

I have been reading a lot of opinions in this thread and just try to make a decision about what I am going to do with my portfolio.  My portfolio is very small as I am still learning.  I started my investment with $15,000. Last month, if I sold everything I would have got $24,000 and gain about 9000. But I only cashed out $12,000 and left $12,000 in the portfolio. Today my portfolio value drop quite a lot, it only worth about $7,500.  I am not sure whether i should sell everything now or better wait and see.


----------



## tasmanian (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> The XAO inverted.......




thats a great picture there Ifocus.

nice breakout healthy pullback too support before off we go again.im sure everyone would be licking there lips if that was a stock they were holding.id be happy with it atm if it was me.

im feeling pretty confident we will go higher yet on that chart.i just get the feeling and by the looks of the xao chart this so called correction is far from over yet

just about time to open up those shorts again.


----------



## wavepicker (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> I disagree. I don't think you can have an analytic approach towards the social sciences, as at some time, the analysis will have to be from a perspective.




I don’t think this is quite true.  The example of this is the EWP. It is an excellent representation of mass mood as expressed in liquid market patterns on many occasions, especially when coupled with sentiment.



chops_a_must said:


> Acceptance of order requires an assumption. You can't put the cart before the horse.




Order has nothing to do with putting the cart before the horse Chops. What is order anyway?  Yes it is an assumption, a subjective one at that. However that assumption is not made easily, it’s only made after seeing things happening over and over many times. Order can manifest itself in many ways in the market, from repeating patterns, repeating price points, and repeating time points and as is most seen CYCLES. Have given numerous examples in this forum. There is no guarantee the same order will continue to unfold into the future as the cycle can miss a beat only to re appear at later stage. But it nevertheless is there.

There is no doubt that there have been many examples given by Mag, myself and others on this forum (quite successful forecasts in fact), that there exists some type of order in the market

Now if you don’t buy into this argument I really couldn’t give a fat rats a.se!!  You are simply part of the majority that creates the trends in the markets place that people that can relate to what I am saying will profit from.  I mean if you didn’t have a bunch of people like yourself that were willing to buy OXR at over $4 for example, then we would have no one to make $$ from 

.


----------



## Mofra (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chatty said:


> I myself think it should not be a big issue for Australia/ASX. The banks lend money against home being mortgaged.  Generally, with sub-prime mortgage the banks will seek mortgage insurance to mitigate their risk from the inability to service debt from the borrowers. Even without mortgage insurance,the bank is covered by home mortgaged.The lenders can always get their money back from forclosure.  The maximum loan loss may probably be 10-15%???



Hi Chatty,

You may be underestimating the secondary effects of the sub-prime meltdown - the tightening of credit policy. We have almost no direct exposure to the sub-prime meltdown (Australia works differently, securitised lenders being 100% MI covered) however tightening of credit leads to reduced economic activity and therfore often reduced growth.

FWIW, MI covers the lender 100%, however in the event of any loss the MI will pursue the borrower for every cent.


----------



## motorway (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> What is order anyway? Yes it is an assumption,




order stands in contrast to disorder

What makes order out of disorder is

 energy

order = energy = information  >---< disorder = entropy = random

mkts exhibit both random and the non random 
( time frames / resolutions )

We can use charts of various kinds to detect and hitch our wagons
to the flow of  information of energy.

One aspect that reveals the non random ( for eg )
is in the distribution of runs and reversals of a price series

order is or isn't


motorway


----------



## numbercruncher (22 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> August 22 2007: 9:33 AM EDT
> 
> 
> NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks opened sharply higher Wednesday as credit markets calmed down a bit and speculation grew on Wall Street that a Fed rate cut was coming, maybe soon.
> ...




http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/22/markets/markets_nyopen/index.htm

Green Thursday ~


----------



## vert (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

dont mind having a go at some drawings myself Kauri, have been playing with this and the DJI since we seem to follow them.


----------



## ozambersand (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry to butt in on this interesting conversation, but I have a couple of questions:

Are 0.6 and 0.7% considered to be big moves in the US? Would I be right in saying that lately (both here and OS) there have been jumps at the start of the day but the market gets the jitters towards closing time and has been dropping back to almost where it started.

Also how closely do the figures in the overnight SPE futures ASX200 mirror what tends to happen the next day?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'm very interested in media/social dynamics and whether it's the public that moves the media, or media moving the people, and I think we could be somewhere in a whirpool situation, where one triggers the other, triggers the other, and momentum kicks in creating a vortex which sucks everything around and down with it. You can't discount the media's influence in creating a crash. If there was NO communication, and interpretation, then we'd be sitting around twiddling our thumbs, wondering what to do.
> 
> In the mean time, we'll continue to overshoot, and undershoot, and it's important to make the most of those opportunites, IMO.



Kennas,

The people who are what we would call the smart ones don't listen to the media. The media reports for whatever is manufactured for whatever eventuates. The result means story A gets printed and not story B, or vice versa. It is for the pops and grans and the fools who follow it. Unfortunately the list of fools grows with every bull market so there must be some negative effect. But with institutions etc always buying and selling it isn't worth following at least to the extent of trading by it.

Charts don't lie.


----------



## Sean K (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> I'm sick of hearing about this. Its a load of ****
> 
> I personally have little faith in Peter Costello and his bean counters timing this thing at anything other than the top of the market.
> 
> Yes I know its ran buy smart people.



Do you just mean it's old news TH? Or that it has NO effect on the liquidity in the markets? Along with all that other super money that's been injected? 

Also, you think the creation of the Future Fund has been designed to try and ride the bull market with people's tax money? And they are timing it badly? 

I thought the Fund was put together to pay for poor Baby Boomers in retirement and had no link to what stage the market was in. They created it to time the Boomers, not the markets. Now they've got all this cash, they have to invest, it's part of the mandate isn't it?

Isn't the fund being run by investment professionals? Some guy who used to run a big bank I think, along with a few helpers who may have suitable qualifications and experience.  

I don't mind hearing about the FF injecting money into the market....no biggie.


----------



## chops_a_must (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> I don’t think this is quite true.  The example of this is the EWP. It is an excellent representation of mass mood as expressed in liquid market patterns on many occasions, especially when coupled with sentiment.



It is a judgement made from looking through a line of abstract concepts applied to a complex group of data never wholly being able to be known at any one time.



wavepicker said:


> Order has nothing to do with putting the cart before the horse Chops. What is order anyway?  *Yes it is an assumption*, a subjective one at that. However that assumption is not made easily, *it’s only made after seeing things happening over and over many times*. Order can manifest itself in many ways in the market, from *repeating patterns*,* repeating price points*, and *repeating time points* and as is most seen CYCLES. Have given numerous examples in this forum. *There is no guarantee the same order will continue to unfold into the future* as the cycle can miss a beat only to re appear at later stage. But it nevertheless is there.



How can you assume something to be true, refute the other side, and at the same time deny the validity of the assumed truth into the future? That's certainly not analytic or scientific. And all I have to say to this is, "All swans are white!" 



wavepicker said:


> There is no doubt that there have been many examples given by Mag, myself and others on this forum (quite successful forecasts in fact), that there exists some type of order in the market
> 
> Now if you don’t buy into this argument I really couldn’t give a fat rats a.se!!  You are simply part of the majority that creates the trends in the markets place that people that can relate to what I am saying will profit from.  I mean if you didn’t have a bunch of people like yourself that were willing to buy OXR at over $4 for example, then we would have no one to make $$ from
> .



I have NO DOUBT that EW works. But extrapolating this to anything outside of price action is bound to face problems.

And FWIW I didn't and would never have taken a trade on OXR above $4 (I mean, I wouldn't even put a $50 bet on it ffs!); use basic EW analysis to trade from and benefit greatly from your posts.

Like I said, this is just a bunch of wank. I just happen to think that EW is very good in the numbers games, and should be taken as nothing more.

Cheers,
Chops.

Oh and P.S. I think it would be very hard to apply time analysis to markets when modern economic theories were developed by inductivists who were not as interested in time as were their contemporary philosophical antagonists.


----------



## wavepicker (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vert said:


> dont mind having a go at some drawings myself Kauri, have been playing with this and the DJI since we seem to follow them.



Excellent chart vert,

is this how you expect this current uptrend to pan out? 

Wish we had more analysis like this on this thread


----------



## wavepicker (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> It is a judgement made from looking through a line of abstract concepts applied to a complex group of data never wholly being able to be known at any one time.



All analysis involves judgement. Every day at work I assess brake squeal/clutch shudder on vehicles based judgement.  When I land the a plane it's based on judgement. But I am judging from the basis of a trained observer. The same applies when analysing the market. It's called experience, and anybody can attain it but takes hard work which very few are willing to do. Very often there are patterns there just looking at you in the face, you just gotta do some work to find them.




chops_a_must said:


> I have NO DOUBT that EW works. But extrapolating this to anything outside of price action is bound to face problems.




Yes it does work all the time, however trying to find it in it's simplest form all the time is not always possible. The number 1.618 and other sequences crop up everywhere ie in nature, etc , maybe even in you chops


----------



## tech/a (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Vert*

Where can I get the formula for the "OH__SHIIT" Indicator.
Do you have a "EUREKA" one as well!


----------



## vert (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

wavepicker,  yes this is how i would like it to pan out with some refinements on the way of course. Dont know all the rules to wave analysis, really should get some education on it because I like what i have seen of it by others which is where I've got my basics from.
My target for wave 1 is 6069 61.8 of the whole down move, I thought that yesterday was the day but with the dow up 145 points we might go a bit higher today. Still we must have a little pullback any day as we cant keep going straight up. If and when w1 is confirmed then i predict w2 to be 61.8 of w1 5700. 
If this follows my probability this will be similar to the correction in 2006


tech/a, no formula mate just if it goes there OH SH>T
My eureka one is if it breaks 6450 

First chart asx200 2006, 2nd 3rd are DOW.


----------



## Sean K (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

17 Aug


kennas said:


> I can not help but think there are some long term bargains looming for those with cash. I traded banks yesterday, but I'm almost tempted to buy and hold today. Looks like capitulation across the board to me. Hmmmmm



Was 17 Aug capitulation?

I tend to think this is just a recovery in a longer term down trend, or sideways movement, but if the XAO cracks 6200 then it's technically going back up.


----------



## hacheln_mice (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It'd be interesting to see if they close the All Ords above the 61.8% of 6094 retracement from the lows at 5490.


----------



## insider (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How do you think the Feds are going to go about the markets... Do you think an interest rate cut is likely?


----------



## moses (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So...all ords up 2.5% to 6149.7, with a wee burst of energy at the close.

Where to now?


----------



## wayneL (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> How do you think the Feds are going to go about the markets... Do you think an interest rate cut is likely?



The markets seem to be punting on that likelihood.

But I don't know, they have a dollar to defend as well. But nothing is too ridiculously accommodative for the Fed/CB cabal.


----------



## powerkoala (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> How do you think the Feds are going to go about the markets... Do you think an interest rate cut is likely?




well, if no cut... market will go down again.
then xao will be hmm... well back to 5500?
think today's action is too way far ahead.
market is really hoping Fed will cut rate.
but who knows what might happen.
quite happy though. at last 4 days Green in the rows.
will it be a week straight in Green, i wonder?


----------



## Rafa (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

this recovery has been too quick for my liking... only made one trade and made 5k 

doesn't make up for my overall portfolio loss 

but its been an interesting thread... keep it up.


----------



## Porper (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moses said:


> Where to now?





Well, looking at the smaller time frame it looks like we may well have a consolidation at least, probably a pullback to the red lines below (normal retracement area) before the start of the next wave up which, if we have our bull hat on will probably take us to new highs.

I feel bearish (emotions), but the chart does look fairly bullish.

Definitely a 3 wave movement down, cannot be anything other unless it is 3 waves down to a wave A, in which case we are going very, very much lower :eek

the weekly oscilator is just turning bullish, the smaller time frame (below), will be in overbought territory tomorrow.


----------



## theasxgorilla (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Rafa said:


> this recovery has been too quick for my liking...




Maybe, but in an attempt to be as objective as possible with the analysis, the patterns that you see on a weekly and monthly chart right now can only indicate one thing...a notable lack of selling pressure below 6,000.  And if Porpor's worse case scenario Elliott Wave count is correct then this is still a wave B, and we're probably still going higher from here before we go lower than we were.  Retesting of the all-time-highs can't be out of the question.  But even it we get there or go higher again, retesting of the recent lows after that also can't be out of the question.  Hows that for a hedged bet?   Can you tell I'm just like everyone else in this thread...no idea what will happen next.

ASX.G


----------



## moses (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Maybe we'd better ask Ben B. what he plans to do with rates.


----------



## powerkoala (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moses said:


> Maybe we'd better ask Ben B. what he plans to do with rates.




anyone knows his number or email address?


----------



## Nick Radge (23 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The video shows the daily count and how this counts fits...





*BOTTOM LINE 
23/8:*
EW Trend: Corrective (?)
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: n/a


*LAYMANS ANALYSIS 
23/8:*
VIDEO ANALYSIS (3 mins 0 secs)
In last week's update of the All Ordinaries Index (XAO) I mentioned the very positive close and what was then required to label the decline as a corrective movement rather than a new downtrend. That has now been achieved and we're seeing strong follow through evidence to back it up. Whilst price action since last weeks dramatic lows does not completely eradicate an ongoing larger corrective argument, it certainly puts a much more positive spin on the condition of the market. I can't quite get fully bullish again until we see new highs, but the price patterns have given us a round of reasons to think that its possible. If we stall and start to fail before we hit new highs then there could be some further uncomfortable road bumps to endure but we can dissect the outlook using some price levels as guidelines. The most important level is 5788. Should the ongoing bullish argument hold water then we must stay above that at this stage. We could well travel all the way back to the highs if we hold that level. Even a decline over the coming week of a few hundred points would still keep the immediate bullish argument alive, in fact I would expect that we'll see some near term downside before another go higher.  With the key level in place we'll continue expecting higher prices. 


*TECHNICAL DISCUSSION 
23/8:*
Any way you wish to look at the daily chart (refer video) we have a 3-wave decline off the highs and the impulse waves of that decline show reasonable equality. We must concede that the move has not been an impulse and that it's now a completed correction or it's the first part of a much larger corrective move. The strength off the lows has been very strong as well. Today's chart is the 30-minute window allowing us to peek inside the activity off the lows. Its a clear impulse which is now tackling so transient resistance. We may have a reason to expect a wave-iii high anywhere here and a wave-iv decline to follow. So long as we hold above the wave-i highs we should be focused on the continuing bullish argument, at least for the short term. Each step of the way we can build the levels to validate or invalidate the argument. On a slightly longer term time frame we have not necessarily invalidated an ongoing complex correction whereby the 3-wave decline of the highs is in fact a larger degree wave-(A). That is still a plausible scenario. But again, this argument is starting to have some holes poked into it. An impulse can only be a wave-1 or -A so if we're talking bearish then this doesn't quite fit the wave-A scenario, unless we're seeing some elongated corrective move higher. Possible. But it's starting to look like a piece of swiss cheese.



_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information._


----------



## vert (24 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

thanks nick for your analysis, much appreciated 
on 30 min chart could it be w5 of a larger w1? with w3 being 6050 and w4 5990
if so where would larger w2 be destined 50%?


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Shortish term picture I'm looking at a H&S appearing, target 6500 ish. 

Awaiting further price action. Early days. 

All those lagging indicators are starting to look very interesting.


----------



## Nick Radge (25 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Vert,
Proportion or "look" are very important to the interpretation. Note the chart below shows the adjacent corrections to be out of proportion. As such the "safest" interpretation is that we're yet to see the wave-iv, although we're more than likely in it now







Its important to build a case, pattern by pattern. Firstly, the move off the major highs was a  clear 3-wave with equality. Secondly the rejection off last weeks lows has been very powerful, not only the blow-off seen on Thursday itself but the follow through since. Thirdly, the fact that we've moved beyond the 61.8% retracement of the complete decline confirms a corrective structure and not an impulse and in turn flips the momentum from down to up. It does not mean that we can't keep going lower in a much larger corrective move but there is more evidence on this lower time frame suggesting we're impulsing higher. That may not be a new wave-1 higher. It could be a wave-A of a larger corrective move than would still probably see new highs made.


----------



## motorway (25 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Mkts trend ...........Mkts reverse

Sentiment is important in recognizing technical positions

trends culminate with one sided sentiment and a uniformity of trading methods

nothing succeeds like success until it doesn't

With everyone long the same stocks 
It is No mystery what gets sold down


Sentiment can be measured by various indicators

Best to look past the behaviour of cap weighted indexes or proxies
and examine whole mkt behaviour

Here is a total mkt 2% bullish percent chart............

The software plots every stock on the ASX as a 2% x 3 P&F chart

Then plots the % that are on a simple P&F buy signal as a 1 x 3 P&F chart

That will oscillate between 0 and a 100

with 30%, 50% and 70% important levels

Also relevant is the P&F buy and sell signals themselves..
( Any reassertion on a P&F chart should not be ignored )




> Bull Confirmed - Bull confirmed is, just as it sounds, the most bullish signal the index emits, giving traders a green light to take on multiple long positions with confidence. In the bull confirmed phase, the Bullish Percent Index has a column of X's on its right edge, and this column must have surpassed the next column of X's over to the left by at least one square. Since a market that is in bull confirmed mode is upwardly trending, directional indicators such as MACD are more appropriate than oscillators during this phase.
> 
> Bear Confirmed - Again, just as it sounds, the bear confirmed phase is the most bearish signal the index gives. In this mode, the Bullish Percent Index has a column of 0's on the far right edge of the chart, and this column must surpass the next column of 0's to the left by at least one square down. Since a market in the bear confirmed mode is trending downward, only short positions should be considered during it, and directional indicators are again the weapons of choice.
> 
> ...





Crossing of the 50% line is also a very important indication ...........


I think if You integrate this with  an Index  chart and esp look for confirmation from Volume ( Where is the following .. With the buying or the selling )... You have a useful map delineating where We are in regards to sentiment...

The real test will come when mkts head down again... 

motorway


----------



## RichKid (26 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This material should be relevant to some of the issues discussed a few pages ago in relation to financial markets and socioeconomics. fwiw I tend to follow the general logic of EW and wavepicker's comments about the significance of news (cf the volume analysis techniques discussed by Wyckoff and Tom Williams which provide estimates of price moves before the headlines are even published). If there is sufficient discussion we can split these posts into a new thread.  I don't have access to the full article yet (referred to below) to attach it here but I would say it's worth reading in its entirety.



> The herd's suffering mood swings again
> By Ross Gittins
> SMH August 25, 2007
> http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...1187462526662.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
> ...


----------



## motorway (26 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Unfortunately, when investors in a modern financial setting look to the herd for guidance, they do not realise that most others in the herd are just as uninformed, ignorant and uncertain as they are," the authors say.
> 
> Buyers in a rising market appear unconsciously to think, "the herd must know where the food is - so run with the herd and you'll prosper". Sellers in a falling market appear to think, "the herd must know there's a lion racing towards us, so run with the herd or you'll die".
> 
> ...







> LeBON and CROWD BEHAVIOR
> Mass Psychology
> As a stock market operator, you must keep your own counsel.  It is vital that you not become swept in by the emotions of the crowd.
> There is a tremendous underlying tendency toward convergence and conformity on Wall Street.  Current appraisals of the market, estimations of the future, favorite industrial groups and their major stocks all reflect moves toward consensus.  This is a mindless conformity in as much as the crowd usually exaggerates a trend and in the end under performs the market averages.
> ...





On the significance of a below 30% on the Bullish percent chart



> For a basic market strategy, think of the play moving from one end-zone to the other corresponding to the levels of the bullish %:
> 
> The Low risk area is below 30%
> 
> Almost everyone who wants to sell has already sold.( But Only) Once the “play” starts moving up from this area (indicated by reversals on the p&f chart of the bullish %) it is then time to start playing  offense i.e. aggressively buy stocks, attempting ( intelligent) bottom-fishing in stocks off lows.





Now intelligently means .... Not while a down trend is still in play..

(Catching a falling knife Vs picking up a (finished) fallen one cheaply)

In Wyckoff Terms We

Must have a combination of stopping volume that stops the downtrend that 
Not just creates a pause in the downtrend... And better to wait for the secondary test to confirm that the stopping volume was in fact a  selling climax.. (climax = ending action)

On this chart of the DOW ..Clear stopping Volume.. But still in a downtrend
Hence a shorter term traders entry only..

I can not say Selling Climax

The supply line has not been negated...

By Comparison

Charts of Aussie indexes do show similar supply lines that have be negated.
successful test would set up major buy points.
Same with many stocks...

Until a successful test.... All unconfirmed
and those supply lines could get reset or realigned...

Smart(er) money's intent is revealed in the Volumes
because they first have to buy or sell.

motorway


----------



## lusk (27 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking at that chart of the DOW above is the low volume on the attempt at a trend reversal anything to be concerned about?


----------



## Nick Radge (27 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lusk,
In the near term it may be a concern because it suggests "lack of supply" rather than "demand". However, the background has clear bullish demand which remains the over riding factor. It may be retested on low volume, which would be a very bullish proposition.


----------



## theasxgorilla (27 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



lusk said:


> Looking at that chart of the DOW above is the low volume on the attempt at a trend reversal anything to be concerned about?




Any buying must be at higher prices as sellers were exhausted into the lows...lack of supply.


----------



## theasxgorilla (27 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry Nick...missed your post.


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Volume in our market the last week has not been as pathetic as in the States. As far as the direction of the next move it could be huge. We have nearly 500,000 contracts open on the SPI, this is a LOT. It has been around 300,000 all year and more like 250,000 all of last year. We got no selling out by the longs during the last two weeks and no net short covering, both sides seem to still be pretty confidant of their chances. This could really ad a lot of power to the next move. To unwind this you would think it will have a big influence on the XJO/XAO. The same seems to have happened in the S& P 500 futures in the States. So I still expecting a lot more volatility from here. Maybe not this week but we will have one side trapped soon rather than later.


----------



## powerkoala (27 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

will xao reach 6200 by today?
high 6195.
only 5 more to go


----------



## insider (27 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> will xao reach 6200 by today?
> high 6195.
> only 5 more to go




I think 6200 will be very hard to break cos of it's resistance... Needs another green night in the US


----------



## powerkoala (27 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> I think 6200 will be very hard to break cos of it's resistance... Needs another green night in the US




what a joke  6199.9 just now 
lol... guess somehow market read your mind Insider


----------



## insider (27 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> what a joke  6199.9 just now
> lol... guess somehow market read your mind Insider




bahahaha I hope it means there's gonna be a green night tonight... 

Importantly it does need to finish over 6200


----------



## motorway (27 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



lusk said:


> Looking at that chart of the DOW above is the low volume on the attempt at a trend reversal anything to be concerned about?




I note Nicks comment..

If the last bar is a lack of supply.. The the previous bars with the closes in the middle, 5 of them, are absorption and there as been a test on a shorter time frame...

Those bars do qualify for absorption.. There was supply ( closes in the middle ) but price held and moved up (Higher lows ) through that supply
and the last bar shows strength..
However on this time scale... The volume is lower on this last bar. Which in the context of the position in the trend ( approaching the supply line ) is also suggesting some  faltering  in demand..

Very important to watch the range of the next bars and look out for any shortening of the thrust....

If We have had absorption.. Then then overhead resistance should be decreased and We should see no shortening but ease of movement instead..

A lot depends on Your time frame..

motorway


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We all know that the recent meltdown was not your every day correction but have a look at this chart. The amount of stocks hitting 6 month lows was the Largest that I have data for (back to 02).


----------



## CFD (28 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> I note Nicks comment..
> If the last bar is a lack of supply..
> ~~
> However on this time scale... The volume is lower on this last bar. Which in the context of the position in the trend ( approaching the supply line ) is also suggesting some  faltering  in demand..
> motorway




Nice post MW. I find comments on this last bar on your chart interesting as I try to learn of the VSA way of reading charts. Close above open, close above yesterdays close, close near the days high, you can't get much more of a demand bar than that! But what to make of the low volume? Was it lack of supply or lack of demand? If it was not for Nicks comment I would have been sure it was lack of demand, it is a demand bar after all and the reduced volume could be fewer buys willing to pay the higher price.

Either way the chart needs a high volume day to confirm the up move, which looks like it could be mostly over by the time it's confirmed.


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My amateur options for XAO in the coming weeks, broadly speaking. 

Subject to a war or hurricane here or there.


----------



## Kauri (29 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Allowing that all trend-lines etc are only vindicators, they sometimes fall in interesting places...
 Cheers
..Kauri


----------



## gregcourageous (29 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Allowing that all trend-lines etc are only vindicators, they sometimes fall in interesting places...
> Cheers
> ..Kauri




From my limited chart knowledge I'd like to see it bounce off the 6000 mark, then keep heading upward again.


----------



## explod (29 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nice pattern Kennas but a strong resistance line could be drawn parallel at 6200.     

I would like to see it continue to the moon too Greg but what we want will be different to what pans out IMHO


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Nice pattern Kennas but a strong resistance line could be drawn parallel at 6200.



Agreed, this becomes very important now. I thought it was on the last up leg, and since it failed, my $$ is on the bears side. Holding long term stocks but going to hedge.


----------



## gazelle (29 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like the 27th August was a 45 deg counter out from the top.
I am setting up for the possibility of a 3 - 4 day cntr trend into 3rd Sept which expires a medium term cycle. Will have to wait and see what unfolds. 

18th Sept 2007   -/+3   is 20 years out from 87 top . including leap years we have a window between 18th - 23rd Sept,  20 year cycle might or might not be significant but it is handy to know. 

Regards Gazelle


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whats the chance of a short squeeze here. Seems everyone is looking at some sort of decline from the highs put in a couple of days ago. We have a very High put/call ratio record Futures out and many waiting for a signal to get short. I agree the markets all look bad but I know what happens when to many are leaning the same way.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (29 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> We all know that the recent meltdown was not your every day correction but have a look at this chart. The amount of stocks hitting 6 month lows was the Largest that I have data for (back to 02).




Nice work trembling man.


----------



## powerkoala (29 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ok guys, now, where do we go from here?
XAO bounce strongly. back to 6101 area. that's 1% bounce from today sell off. does this mean 6100 will be a good support point from here on or still going down to 5978 area as before?
any chartists expert opinion?


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Whats the chance of a short squeeze here. Seems everyone is looking at some sort of decline from the highs put in a couple of days ago. We have a very High put/call ratio record Futures out and many waiting for a signal to get short. I agree the markets all look bad but I know what happens when to many are leaning the same way.




High to answer my own question  . It happened yesterday all day to the intraday players and we have a good chance of it knocking the Bears around for a week or two. Monday is a holiday in the States and that has historically been a positive time. this sucker could run for a week.




It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Nice work trembling man.




Thanks.


----------



## Sean K (30 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> ok guys, now, where do we go from here?
> XAO bounce strongly. back to 6101 area. that's 1% bounce from today sell off. does this mean 6100 will be a good support point from here on or still going down to 5978 area as before?
> any chartists expert opinion?



If it breaks above 6200, chart says 6700 to me - extension of tenuous inverse H&S breakout. 

That'll come back and bite me....ouch


----------



## GreatPig (30 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kennas,

You need to be more of a politician:

Prices will advance to 6700, unless they don't in which case they'll decline to 5800, or hover somewhere in between.

Now let anyone prove you wrong... 

GP


----------



## powerkoala (30 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Kennas,
> 
> You need to be more of a politician:
> 
> ...




lol 
of course...
it can be anytime between 2007 to 2010 as well.


----------



## moses (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

After a very boring day there seems to be a rally on the XAO at the moment. Any ideas why?


----------



## powerkoala (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ok somehow XAO is climbing back to 6197.7 high today, after we are trading in blind for almost 3 hours. 
still climb to 6198.2.
is it going to break 6200 today?
kind of weird, seeing DOW and SP500 in negatif area yesterday. 
is is because of nikkei up strongly due to job report?
any opinion guys?


----------



## alankew (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Moses according to ABC news there was a problem at S+P who supply the market date so at about 12"30 there was no info available-not sure if this explains why things are up though,thought there might be caution going into the weekend wit the Dow down overnight


----------



## Edwood (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> ok somehow XAO is climbing back to 6197.7 high today, after we are trading in blind for almost 3 hours.
> still climb to 6198.2.
> is it going to break 6200 today?
> kind of weird, seeing DOW and SP500 in negatif area yesterday.
> ...




we're consolidating near the highs of this bull-flag so there is a chance of a break upwards.  perhaps the market thinks Ben will say nice things tonight so people want to get out of shorts


----------



## powerkoala (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moses said:


> After a very boring day there seems to be a rally on the XAO at the moment. Any ideas why?




yeah, i almost fall asleep then just realize that XAO is way up high.
make me thinking why ?
FED bernanke is going to give speech.
will this signal the rate cut already ?
or this just the beginning of another drop (if no cut?)


----------



## powerkoala (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

holy cow...
6201.... ?????
is this for real ????


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moses said:


> After a very boring day there seems to be a rally on the XAO at the moment. Any ideas why?




Come on Guys its a classic short squeeze all over the place. Hong Kong, Japan, The Yen, our SPI. to many short no sellers left.


----------



## sam76 (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Come on Guys its a classic short squeeze all over the place. Hong Kong, Japan, The Yen, our SPI. to many short no sellers left.




Hi TH,

Can you elaborate on what a short squeeze is?

Just for the dumber ones out here


----------



## SevenFX (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bounced of 6192 briefly (R1) but still early I guess.

Which should serve as good support... yes

SevenFX


----------



## moneymajix (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bush to Outline Subprime Mortgage Initiative CNBC.com

President George W. Bush will outline reforms on Friday intended to help homeowners with subprime mortgages avoid default, a senior U.S. administration official said on Thursday. 

"He will also discuss reform efforts to prevent these kinds of problems from arising in the future," the official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. 

Financial markets around the world have been in turmoil in recent weeks as defaults have risen on so-called subprime mortgages to less creditworthy borrowers. The Federal Reserve has taken steps to increase liquidity in markets and faces calls for interest-rate cuts to head off a broader credit squeeze that could drag economic growth down. 

Bush in a statement scheduled for 11:10 a.m. in the White House Rose Garden will discuss the need for Congress to pass Federal Housing Administration reform legislation aimed at giving the agency the flexibility to help subprime mortgage borrowers, the official said. 

The risk of a credit squeeze stemming from rising defaults on subprime mortgages has fueled worry that consumers will trim spending at a rate that could tip the economy into recession. 

An administration official told Reuters that Bush "will discuss his willingness to work with Congress in a bipartisan way to reform the tax code to help troubled borrowers rework their loans." 

Stock prices fell on Thursday on concern that credit market upheaval was spreading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 50.56 points to close at 13,238.73. 

Bush is also expected to direct Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Housing Secretary Alphonso Jackson to work together on an initiative to help troubled mortgage holders obtain services and products needed to prevent default, the official said. 

He will discuss the need for rigorous enforcement of predatory lending laws and strengthening lending practices, the official said.


----------



## powerkoala (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ok... 
i may be stupid...
but 6212 just now...
as far as i know,
huge resistance in 6200 area... it is very hard before to break this level.
but today.. after few hickup in indexing, now break this resistance easily ??
well.. maybe someone knows that FED will be "kind" tomorrow or will he????


----------



## Edwood (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> ok...
> i may be stupid...
> but 6212 just now...
> as far as i know,
> ...




so once the resistance goes... party on!

no-one knows what Ben will say - its 'gambling' to hold into what could potentially be a major market announcement - better to wait for the news to come out then play the move.  so if you're short you'll want to cover beforehand


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> Hi TH,
> 
> Can you elaborate on what a short squeeze is?
> 
> Just for the dumber ones out here



___________
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In finance, a short squeeze is a rapid increase in the price of a stock that occurs when there is a lack of supply and an excess of demand for the stock.

Short squeezes result when short sellers cover their positions on a stock. This can occur if the price has risen to a point where these people simply decide to cut their losses and get out. (This may happen in an automated manner if the short sellers had previously placed stop-loss orders with their brokers to prepare for this eventuality.) Since covering their positions involves buying shares, the short squeeze causes an ever further rise in the stock's price, which in turn may trigger additional covering.

___________

I flagged the possibility of this happening on Wednesday as it seemed that every one had positioned themselves for for a retest of the lows.
As usual what happens when many are learning the same way we go in the opposite direction.


----------



## powerkoala (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> so once the resistance goes... party on!
> 
> no-one knows what Ben will say - its 'gambling' to hold into what could potentially be a major market announcement - better to wait for the news to come out then play the move.  so if you're short you'll want to cover beforehand




very true.
sold some yesterday coz i think today will be RED day.
yet, i was wrong.
still waiting for the "party" to pick up few more


----------



## sam76 (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> ___________
> From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
> 
> In finance, a short squeeze is a rapid increase in the price of a stock that occurs when there is a lack of supply and an excess of demand for the stock.
> ...




Wicked.  Thanks mate.


----------



## professor_frink (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> Hi TH,
> 
> Can you elaborate on what a short squeeze is?
> 
> Just for the dumber ones out here




here's quick explanation sam-

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp


Interesting move this afternoon, been pretty aggressive buying across the entire region. U.S futures have moved in sympathy and the DOW is up over 80 already. Could be a big up evening if Europe decides to join in later this afternoon.


----------



## sam76 (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> here's quick explanation sam-
> 
> http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp
> 
> ...




Wicked. thanks mate.


----------



## professor_frink (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> Wicked. thanks mate.




no worries Sam, only just saw Trembling Hand's reply to your question


----------



## powerkoala (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

looks like the "party" just started
6230 fellas....
wooo hooo....
let see how far can we go


----------



## Edwood (31 August 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

possible target now we've broken out, but anywhere up here will complete the pattern, look to be in iii of 5 imo


----------



## tech/a (1 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Waves.*

It seems some leading E/W pundits are calling a time line on the S&P as 31/8-6/9/07 as the top of the current corrective move before a resumption of the bear trading phase.

how does your time analysis sit with this?


----------



## wavepicker (1 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> *Waves.*
> 
> It seems some leading E/W pundits are calling a time line on the S&P as 31/8-6/9/07 as the top of the current corrective move before a resumption of the bear trading phase.
> 
> how does your time analysis sit with this?




Hello John,

I see a similar date(s) specifically between the 4th and 6th (SP500 and most indices), however IMO this will only cause a temporary snapback to the current upmove. Would not surprise me if the indices put in some sort of consolidation thereafter before putting in a final recovery high to finish this countertrend later this month/early next(need to do some more work to get a more accurate target date). Another date to look at is 19th Sep(not sure of significance yet). It is my thinking that the market needs to chew up time first, and you can bet your bottom dollar it will confuse 90% of the pundits in the process, so I think it will first do some rather fancy footwork and take out all the shorts and stops before finally moving. (Just my opinion)

Incidentally, I have a very significant fib time date on the 14/15 November, and the 21 to 24 of March 2008. So might pay to keep these times in mind.
Please understand that I am still learning to apply this stuff, so don't take my word as gospel.

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker (1 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is something that the Foundation For The Study Of Cycles has come up with in the US for the DJIA.

It's based on FFT analysis of market data. As you can see that their projection is slight out of phase with price ATM(projection comes in late) . So I would only look at it as a rough guide in terms of possible future market direction . Also the magnitudes(price levels)  I would not trust 100% either, once again to be used only as a guide.

The problem with this sort of approach is that the further you look into the future, the less the accuracy. However if one looks at 1/2 the span of a cycle into the future then the forecast might be more credible.

I should also add the that the dates on the earlier post where in no way derived from this chart or type of analysis.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well the XAO is looking pretty good here as far as recapturing the old range but yet again the Big Caps are masking the weakness in the market. We have the ASX 20 about to hit new all time highs yet the Small cap index is back where it was in April. Have a look at this chart of the 6 month new highs it has been in a downward trend since the start of the year. Can we print some good numbers here to show some spine to this rally or are we going to roll over and print another lower high?


----------



## Edwood (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

nice chart TH

looks like SPI will be opening today around mid-6,300's.  gee I'd be a bit miffed if I'd dumped my portfolio during the recent correction, who would've thought we'd be back up here 3 weeks later!


----------



## tech/a (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well I dumped a couple of sizable longterm portfolios and Im *ANYTHING BUT *miffed.
I'm cashed.
I'm enjoying a change of pace short term trading.
I've mitigated risk.
Currently I'm no better or worse off than when I sold (A few K difference).
I'm far from convinced that this is going to signal a return of the longterm bull.

If it does then back I'll go.
No big deal.


----------



## krisbarry (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am quite suprised about this..did you buy back into the market a few weeks back? A bottom was signalled and it was very obvious!

then we just experienced the biggest weekly rise in 30 years...what a missed oppourtinity if you didn't.

Amazing that you geared heavily in the property market and rode the biggest housing boom in 30 years but missed the stock market boom of late.


----------



## tech/a (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kris.

Just bad analysis I guess.
I'll just have to be happy with picking up the last 5 yrs then.


----------



## Sean K (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Stop_the_clock said:


> Amazing that you geared heavily in the property market and rode the biggest housing boom in 30 years but missed the stock market boom of late.



Yep, tech really missed the boat I reckon.


----------



## Edwood (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Well I dumped a couple of sizable longterm portfolios and Im *ANYTHING BUT *miffed.
> I'm cashed.
> I'm enjoying a change of pace short term trading.
> I've mitigated risk.
> ...




yeah I'm not too worried about you Tech, you know what you're doing!   I'm more feeling for any who panicked themselves out round the lows or had to get out to meet margin calls & seeing current levels must wonder wth has happened.  nothing wrong with being in cash at the moment, this volatility should be with us for a bit longer yet


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If you have a look at a lot of the Specie stuff it is still well below where it was in mid July. The strength of this rally is really only because of the top 15 Big Caps. This rally is pretty weak as far as broad based stocks participating.


----------



## krisbarry (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Kris.
> 
> Just bad analysis I guess.
> I'll just have to be happy with picking up the last 5 yrs then.




You have certainly done well over the last 5 years, no doubt about it and I am very proud of your achievement.

Just suprised that you need so much convincing evidence to turn that bear into a bull again


----------



## rub92me (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Stop_the_clock said:


> You have certainly done well over the last 5 years, no doubt about it and I am very proud of your achievement.
> 
> Just suprised that you need so much convincing evidence to turn that bear into a bull again



To stay in this game and win the war in the long term you need to manage your risk. Picking bottoms and tops in hindsight is a losers game.


----------



## Edwood (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> If you have a look at a lot of the Specie stuff it is still well below where it was in mid July. The strength of this rally is really only because of the top 15 Big Caps. This rally is pretty weak as far as broad based stocks participating.




cheers for that TH, was wondering about the internals


----------



## GreatPig (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A comment from Guppy's latest newsletter:



> Gamblers have made money on the rebound. Long term traders are not gamblers, so caution rules until there is proof of trend stability.



Cheers,
GP


----------



## krisbarry (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am fully in the market again, and have been enjoying steady profits over the past few weeks.  I am a strong bull till at least Jan/Feb 08, and at that time I will become a bear, and switch all my money to cash.

Remember the 6 month theory bull run...correction...bull run...correction etc.


----------



## Kauri (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Stop_the_clock said:


> I am quite suprised about this..did you buy back into the market a few weeks back? A bottom was signalled and it was very obvious!
> 
> then we just experienced the biggest weekly rise in 30 years...what a missed oppourtinity if you didn't.
> 
> Amazing that you geared heavily in the property market and rode the biggest housing boom in 30 years but missed the stock market boom of late.




  STC,
        The fact that the recent bottom and subsequent rise was so obvious to you, coupled with the fact that my Budgie is eyeing off the bell in his cage, along with a few other boring observations.... has me looking to my shorts again....   
  Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Sean K (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> STC,
> The fact that the recent bottom and subsequent rise was so obvious to you, coupled with the fact that my Budgie is eyeing off the bell in his cage, along with a few other boring observations.... has me looking to my shorts again....
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



Kauri, if he starts attacking it, please PM me. Cheers!


----------



## krisbarry (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes please PM me too...you know what happens when budgies in cages attack bells


----------



## Porper (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Stop_the_clock said:


> A bottom was signalled and it was very obvious!
> 
> then we just experienced the biggest weekly rise in 30 years...what a missed oppourtinity if you didn't.





I'm not convinced the bottom was obvious, what analysis do you base this on S.T.C.?

As far as the biggest weekly rise in 30 yrs, well all I know is that all my scans are 90% for short trades, so the rise is mostly in the big blue chip companies.

I don't yet have a mechanical trading plan so my "discretion" has been used and I am out except for a couple of long termers.

The odd very quick trade is still possible, but like many here I would doubt we are going to get a big broad based Bull Market again for a while.If I am wrong, like Tech A says, no big deal, just trade  what the market tells us.

If that means getting back on and missing 5% of the rise, so what it will have been worth it for the insurance it provides.


----------



## CFD (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone watching for a transfer of ownership from the "strong hands" to the "weak hands", would have to be having a close look these past months.

tech/a never actually said why he thought this correction would be worse than any others he endured during last 5 years!


----------



## Kauri (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just pretty lines on a chart really, but it's still fun drawing them..  ..
 Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## steven1234 (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think its a little premature to think the bull is back.  

The "speccies" are yet to rally.  When this happens the bull is back.  The larger cap compies have run on good results.  Once the vaule in the larger cap companies is no longer as apparent, the bulls should invade all the species in search of value


----------



## Uncle Festivus (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yep short term daytraders heaven eg XTL back to previous highs - too high too fast maybe. Long term I think Kauri's 'cone of silence' formation is still intact. Even shorter term, a pull back is on the cards, as soon as tomorrow. Todays action says a lot - up 50 pts then steady selling into it - short the rallies?


----------



## rub92me (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Stop_the_clock said:


> I am fully in the market again, and have been enjoying steady profits over the past few weeks.  I am a strong bull till at least Jan/Feb 08, and at that time I will become a bear, and switch all my money to cash.
> 
> Remember the 6 month theory bull run...correction...bull run...correction etc.



I don't remember the 6 month theory. What authority is sprouting that one? So much to learn, the mind boggles


----------



## tech/a (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> coupled with the fact that my Budgie is eyeing off the bell in his cage,




*Thats the funniest line Ive read in years.*

So I went out and bought a budgie!!!
And I thought I had a handle on analysis.
You learn something every day.
Thanks for the heads up.


----------



## Awesomandy (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I cashed out everything a month ago, and I'm still holding cash now. Not exactly miffed though, and my gut feeling tells me that I'm watching a ticking time bomb. Of course, I have no backups for gut feelings, but I guess I'm in a bit of an extended sabbatical for now. Also, I'm not very comfortable with the just the bluechips holding the market up. After the euphoria of record profits of the last financial year, all they need is a bit of news to set off panic alarms, and we'll probably be a few hundred points down again.


----------



## Gurgler (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kauri:

Can you just run these excerpts by your budgie and get us some local reaction?

From and article out today:
*Japan Could Drive Global Economic Slowdown*
FN Arena News - September 05 2007 

By Greg Peel

*Re Japan's economy:*
*The London Telegraph reports Japanese wages have fallen for the last eight months in a row. Over that period business investment has fallen 4.9%, with the pace of decline gathering speed in the last few months. The Japanese government has applied a "fanatical" fiscal squeeze that has cut the deficit from 8% of GDP in 2003 to 1.5% this year. Critics suggest Japan was too quick to raise the interest rate from zero.*



*Re US market:*
*Meanwhile, the situation becomes increasingly dire in the US. Concerns are not currently being reflected in a buoyant stock market. ......

..... The biggest immediate problem for the US is that large parts of the US$2200bn commercial paper market remain shut. Short term borrowing through the issuance of corporate debt is what keeps the world's biggest companies rolling along. 

The Telegraph suggests the Fed has been "stunned" by the ongoing freezing of activity in commercial paper. The rush to 3-month US Treasuries has been the fastest on record, eclipsing even 9/11 and the 1987 crash. *


*
And lastly:*
*Fuelling fear in US financial markets is the great unknown. Who owns all the worthless mortgage-backed securities and how many? September may be a month when some of this information is divulged, as US financial institutions begin to provide pre-results for the third quarter. German bank IKB was one of the first victims to disclose its exposure to subprime securities, forcing a bail-out by the Bundesbank. IKB has said this week its losses could reach E700 billion.*


Are there dominoes wavering somewhere out there?

Source: http://www.fnarena.com/index4.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=D402468C-17A4-1130-F5D5FE1FCD2ED893


----------



## sam76 (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wanna see something really scary?

The specter that is haunting the markets lately goes by the name "1987." A stock market runup, a buyout boom, high-yield bonds, increased government regulation, tax hikes on investments and buyouts. It all seems eerily familiar to many people with long memories. And the chart above is not exactly re-assuring. 

But, surprisingly, some traders take the similarities to 1987 as a contrary indicator. 
"There's no way the Fed will allow October 19, 1987 to happen all over again," a trader told us Monday night after his fifth scotch.

For some people, there's always a bull market somewhere. And the assumption that a rate cut can and will save the markets-or even the broader economy-may be wishful thinking. Or just the scotch talking. 

The Federal Reserve's intervention is credited with the fast recovery in the Dow in 1987, when the stock index finished slightly up for the year. A gross domestic product grew 3.7 percent in 1987's third quarter, and continued in to grow in the subsequent quarters. There was the Fed fueled rock growth of 7.2 percent in 1987's fourth quarter, 1.9 percent in 1988's first quarter, 5.2 percent in 1988's second quarter, and 2.2 percent in 1988's third quarter. Buyouts resumed. High yield debt kept finding buyers. Jim Cramer famously made a lot of money.

But it didn't last long. The leveraged buyout market came to a crash in 1989. The Dow turned bearish the next year. The country went into a recession. And many believe that the bear market and recession were on the early nineties were made far worse by the Fed's 1987 intervention, which inflation hawks say created the illusion of prosperity and led to lots of capital misallocation. When market realities began to set in and capital started fleeing the dead-ends into which it had been led by the siren song of easy money, the pain really started?

Is the Federal Reserve trying to trod a more careful path this time? One thing's for sure, if they don't cut rates in September some will no doubt scream "they don't know what they're doing." But it's still an open question whether the Punch Bowl Caucus really understands what it's doing.


----------



## Nick Radge (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Also something scary...the collapse in 1929 happened 55 days after the peak. The collapse in 1987 happened 55 days after the peak. September 12 is 55 days after the recent peak...

An important day. Review #1387

Consider,

1. The count from that chart
2. Today's price action, specifically the close and volume
3. What the next probable pattern will be


----------



## rub92me (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gurgler said:


> Kauri:
> IKB has said this week its losses could reach E700 billion.



Um, that should be E700 million rather than billion I think..


----------



## insider (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I sold out today... tooo much doom and gloom again... Scares the CR4P out of me... In the speckies to many supports are breaking and I can't stand there and not do anything to stop it... The word out  there is that September is going to be bad... I can't support this because it is nothing more than unsubstantiated cr4p but if the lemmings are going to sell up then make the most of it...


----------



## vert (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

head and shoulders breaking down 
its up to the dow tonight


----------



## Kauri (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The reason I was short today... and will remain short until I get another warning from my Bell-Ringer... 
   although there are probably other more valid E/W counts out there, I see both of mine pointing to a small drop (300 points odd?).... _*initially at least*_... 
 Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## insider (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Recent days seem to indicate a slow turn around... it will most likely end up going down


----------



## stoxclimber (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> Wanna see something really scary?





That chart is highly misleading, throw log scales on that thing and put in the recent DJI returns and see how similar it looks.

For the record, the R^2 of DJI 1987 returns to DJI 2007 returns is 29.7%.
Time to jump off the bridge i think


----------



## >Apocalypto< (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> STC,
> The fact that the recent bottom and subsequent rise was so obvious to you, coupled with the fact that my Budgie is eyeing off the bell in his cage, along with a few other boring observations.... has me looking to my shorts again....
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Excellent comments Kauri,

I am also looking to short patience is a virtue, hope makes some of us money

Kauri,

So the budgie is the secret not the EW huh!


----------



## >Apocalypto< (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rub92me said:


> To stay in this game and win the war in the long term you need to manage your risk. Picking bottoms and tops in hindsight is a losers game.




excellent comment!

Rub92,

how are u doing against yogi in oz now in the comp?


----------



## wavepicker (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech,
Re post #1457

We anticipated the market to pullback between 4-6 September as stated in that post.(At the time I was not sure of the price level only the time).

Is this the resumption of the bear trend??  Anything is possible, but it's my opinion that time is not ready for the bear to continue just yet. I mentioned in that post the late September/early October range would be a higher probability. I have 2 key dates for this. The first one is 28th September and the second is 5th October. These a very key dates and like 16th July coincide with key cycle dates. They prety close togther so it (5 trading days) so it should be too much of a problem.

I am working with the scenario that the market will rally into these dates. I have no idea if it will be a struggling or strong rally, however I favour a struggling rally and I have no idea once again what the price level will be. 

If the market falls into these dates, then it will be the opposite and the market should set up for a continuation of the rally, however IMO this is a lower probability.

On the chance that the market makes a false break new high, we may have the  scenario of 3 waves down from 16th July and 3 waves up from the 17th August. If that ends up being an irregular(expanded) flat correction from the 16th July, then it will be a very fast move down(impulse) to finish the correction??


Cheers


----------



## rub92me (5 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> excellent comment!
> 
> Rub92,
> 
> how are u doing against yogi in oz now in the comp?



No need to look in the rear-view mirror just yet based on 6 months results.


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Two days ago a posted a chart of the 6 month new highs which showed the lack of stocks pushing to new highs since the start of the year. It has now ran right up against the down trend line going back to the start of the year. 

Another chart I watch is the Advance/Decline 10 day average that started to roll over Monday which is no surprise as the last 12 days has been just about straight up. But was has been a surprise is the continuing push higher after we dropped off the very negative readings of 16th and 17th of August out of the 10 day calculations. On Friday we printed a new high for the year with Tuesdays/Fridays short covering rally.

I'm still cautious here but open to the possibility that although many things are looking negative, like everything except the ASX20, we are butting up against some not so looked at resistance. And I'm always more inclined to take notice of what people aren't watching than what everyone is. If we can print higher highs on the XFJ, 6 month highs or stay positive on the Adv/Dec chart I will reluctantly have to start getting a bit Bullish.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (8 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

there will be some damage on the asx come monday so look for this thread to heat up!


----------



## explod (8 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> there will be some damage on the asx come monday so look for this thread to heat up!




Maybe, but more often lately the ASX has been doing its own thing.  Chindia is the new frontier for AUz.    But no doubt if current dow continues, it will be subdued allright


----------



## >Apocalypto< (8 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Maybe, but more often lately the ASX has been doing its own thing.  Chindia is the new frontier for AUz.    But no doubt if current dow continues, it will be subdued allright




Explod my point is, I have noticed that this thread becomes rather inactive once the market is rising nicely, but when it starts correct, fall, 1-2 day smashing the posts in here really pick up!

come Monday see what happens.


----------



## explod (8 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Explod my point is, I have noticed that this thread becomes rather inactive once the market is rising nicely, but when it starts correct, fall, 1-2 day smashing the posts in here really pick up!
> 
> come Monday see what happens.




Apologies T. I.,   probably ramping two days early.  Dow recovered a few points so should pull my head in and hit the sack.   Step Daughter's whisky good stuff.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (8 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Apologies T. I.,   probably ramping two days early.  Dow recovered a few points so should pull my head in and hit the sack.   Step Daughter's whisky good stuff.




Yep I hear u, I just closed my dow short time for bed!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (11 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Also something scary...the collapse in 1929 happened 55 days after the peak. The collapse in 1987 happened 55 days after the peak. September 12 is 55 days after the recent peak...
> 
> An important day. Review #1387
> 
> ...




Hey Nick,

tomorrow is the 12th and your post has been in the back of my mind :couch: :hide:

Has anything happened over the last few days that may change/strengthen the possibility etc?

Cheers


----------



## powerkoala (11 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Nick,
> 
> tomorrow is the 12th and your post has been in the back of my mind :couch: :hide:
> 
> ...




so far, all markets in europe are green.
waiting for Ben B speech in berlin for further hints.
will this make tomorrow BIG downfall or BIG jump??


----------



## sassa (11 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> so far, all markets in europe are green.
> waiting for Ben B speech in berlin for further hints.
> will this make tomorrow BIG downfall or BIG jump??




Bernanke's speech is to be on global imbalances.With this in mind,I don't think it will have much influence on the market tonight in America or tomorrow in Oz.


----------



## Nick Radge (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My comments to subscribers last night was the DJIA had completed its corrective phase and was more than likely now on its way to 13,900 as a _minimum_. However, this in direct conflict with the most probable pattern in the XJO. The XJO has had a 3-wave decline (30-min chart) off the Sept 5 high but its not, in my view, of typical depth suggesting that more is to come.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> *My comments to subscribers last night was the DJIA had completed its corrective phase and was more than likely now on its way to 13,900 as a minimum.* However, this in direct conflict with the most probable pattern in the XJO. The XJO has had a 3-wave decline (30-min chart) off the Sept 5 high but its not, in my view, of typical depth suggesting that more is to come.




Hey Nick,

Thanks for the update, wow 13,900 sure would be nice for the DJIA!

Its amazing how the XAO was on the 6,200 line yesterday, if Bernake's speech killed US markets XAO would have been ripe for a fall below it, luckily US rallied strongly last night and has thus given Aus mkts breathing space above the 6,200 line,

So it looks like Kennarico's Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is still in play


----------



## GreatPig (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Also have recent support line now acting as resistance.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Nick Radge (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Solid rejection of gains today. The corrective state of play remains...


----------



## krisbarry (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Solid rejection of gains today. The corrective state of play remains...




I believe it has nothing to do with that...as soon as the Japanese PM resigned then the XAO slid.


----------



## Edwood (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Stop_the_clock said:


> I believe it has nothing to do with that...as soon as the Japanese PM resigned then the XAO slid.




slid all day tho didn't it STC?  did he resign at the XAO open?


----------



## Nick Radge (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Rejection is rejection. The market is showing its not ready to rise.  The reason is irrelevant.


----------



## wavepicker (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In posts # 1437 and 1474 I posted IMO that this current rally/countertrend would persist till late Sept/early Oct, to be more precise the 28th Sept and 5th Oct look to be very significant in terms of time assuming the market rallies into these dates. Like mid July, these dates coincide with a termination and overlapping of various significant cycles.

In terms of the SP500 and XAO there is a slight disparity. Both have major cycle culminations on the dates I just mentioned, however on the way to these dates the 17 Sep plus or minus 1 day has the XAO making a low of sorts, however the SP500 should form some sort of high on the 19th Sep(smaller cycle date).

This is hinting to me the the XAO and possibly SP500 is currently in some sort of brief sideways consolidation pattern for now and will most probably move out of this type of pattern after the 19th Sept to new recovery highs, but not sure of the level. Irrespective if this ends up being a truncation or a minor new high, IMO we will thereafter see a fast move back down into mid Novemeber (I will be gutsy here and say 14/15th Nov). I think this rally since 17th August may well end finishing as a zigzag, in which has an impulse might follow since that will be wave C of a flat or irregular correction(not sure which yet)

There appear to be some really nice plays coming up and the volatility ain't gonna ease up soon IMO.

Cheers


----------



## krisbarry (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Rejection is rejection. The market is showing its not ready to rise.  The reason is irrelevant.




News would have leaked all day before his offical resignation...so again I stand by my statement that it has nothing to do with TA, its the resigantion of a PM with close ties to Australia that did all the damage!


----------



## wavepicker (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Stop_the_clock said:


> News would have leaked all day before his offical resignation...so again I stand by my statement that it has nothing to do with TA, its the resigantion of a PM with close ties to Australia that did all the damage!




Once again another one trying to justify what the market did that particular day. Like Nick says it's irrelevant(and what's more probably too late to do anything about it), what's more important is "What might the market do from here?". Once again the cause would be irrelevant, what is relevant is realising the probabilities/possibilities and formulating a plan to best take advantage of them.

Cheers


----------



## wayneL (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Stop_the_clock said:


> News would have leaked all day before his offical resignation...so again *I stand by my statement* that it has nothing to do with TA, its the resigantion of a PM with close ties to Australia that did all the damage!



You'll have to. No one else will.


----------



## Porper (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Stop_the_clock said:


> News would have leaked all day before his offical resignation...so again I stand by my statement that it has nothing to do with TA, its the resigantion of a PM with close ties to Australia that did all the damage!




I think you are missing the point S.T.C.

It doesn't matter what causes markets to move, we could give a million reasons why price rises or falls.It matters not one iota as long as the analysis is proven to be correct as time progresses, it remains valid.

If you are going down that path, how do you explain prices rising on perceived bad news and vice versa.


----------



## motorway (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> so again I stand by my statement that it has nothing to do with TA




So you are agreeing or disagreeing With Nick Radge ?

The market is showing its not ready to rise. The reason is irrelevant.

The  observation ( the TA ) is not a reason..

Observations  (the  TA ) are aways  relevant.
But do need context.

The reasons for the observations are often 







> Just so stories



The only relevance  they have  is in recognizing manipulation and hence
 technical positions.



> A just-so story, also called the Ad hoc fallacy, is a term used in academic anthropology, biological sciences, and social sciences. It describes an unverifiable and unfalsifiable narrative explanation for a cultural practice or a biological trait or behavior of humans or other animals. The use of the term is an implicit criticism that reminds the hearer of the essentially fictional and unprovable nature of such an explanation. Such tales are common in folklore and mythology (where they are known as etiological myths — see etiology).
> 
> The phrase was popularized by the publication in 1902 of Just So Stories by Rudyard Kipling, which are fictional and deliberately fanciful tales for children which pretend to explain animal characteristics such as the spots of a leopard (e.g., "How the Leopard Got His Spots").




motorway


----------



## Nick Radge (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Must also be why the Hang Seng rallied 200+ points into the close...

I'm not saying TA _caused _the decline. I'm simply pointing out continued evidence of what the technical picture (in my humble opinion at least) is suggesting.


----------



## Awesomandy (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In fact, given the unpopularity of the outgoing Japanese PM, the market would've shot up if there were any effects at all. A new PM would give people hope that economic growth in Japan might increase.


----------



## Bushman (12 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

'O, say can you see by the dawn's early light  |ye - through  
  What so proudly we hail'd at the twilight's last gleaming?'

Rise by the Yanks over night was some good old American patriotism in remembrance of September 11. Aussie pragmatism ensured that the local bourse did not join the chest beating for to long. 

Remember the 'P' word amongst your charts and doji stars wizards. Psychology. But hale to the Bhuddist trader, connecting only with the moment, ignoring all external stimulus.  

Shinzo Abe resigning was to be expected given the scandal that has rocked his term in office.   Japan has had 29 individuals serve as prime minister since WWII. Compare that to Australia and you will see that a Japanese PM resigning early is not an unusual scenario. Definitely would have had limited impact on our local traders. 

Sayonara.


----------



## Kauri (13 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The rounding top and the 6200 mark still seem to hold a bit of sway...
  Have dabbled a bit with time in my spare time and a couple of days either side of 26 Sept and likewise 10 Oct pop up as being potentially important, for what it's worth...
  Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (13 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Stop_the_clock said:


> News would have leaked all day before his offical resignation...so again I stand by my statement that it has nothing to do with TA, its the resigantion of a PM with close ties to Australia that did all the damage!




Stop the clock people!
It was Technical Analysis that did it! Now, if only we knew what to do about it.


----------



## krisbarry (13 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I like it when 10/10 people disagree with me:


----------



## vert (14 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Watching the dow at the moment and its looking pretty good (still plenty of time to revervse). Looking at my charts there seems to be a similar inverted H&S patern forming like last years correction. If the dow closes strong and breaks my blue decending line then the horizontal (neckline) blue line should be next. last years correction took 3 months, this time the start was the 26/07 and so 3 months makes 26/09 which is in line with Kauri's first time line on his XAO chart. If this falls into place i predict we (XAO) maybe break the last highs around this date and then go on to 6900 which is fib 161.8 around the 10/10 (maybe just important because its my dads birthday)
Also Kennas's inverted H&S seems to be holding up so far with the neckline acting as support now.
Anyway thats another way to look at what might be install
Go the dow and go the PIES(collingwood)


----------



## rub92me (14 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vert said:


> Watching the dow at the moment and its looking pretty good (still plenty of time to revervse). Looking at my charts there seems to be a similar inverted H&S patern forming like last years correction. If the dow closes strong and breaks my blue decending line then the horizontal (neckline) blue line should be next. last years correction took 3 months, this time the start was the 26/07 and so 3 months makes 26/09 which is in line with Kauri's first time line on his XAO chart.



3 months from 26/07 gets us to 26/10 not 26/09....


----------



## vert (14 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

woops, think i better go back to counting on my fingers 
oh well lets see what happens then
good night on the dow, ftse and base metals anyway should be good for us here today


----------



## Trembling Hand (14 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The open may not be as pretty as most are expecting. World Futures are taking a bit of a hit after the US closed. Talk of a UK bank needing emergency funding from the Bank of England.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6994099.stm


----------



## sassa (14 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vert said:


> good night on the dow, ftse and base metals anyway should be good for us here today




This will have a major bearing on the market here next week.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/20761445


----------



## motorway (16 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nice Juncture that should provide some pointers

On balance I see the circled area as absorption

I see Two possible scenarios
A reaction back near the half way point
setting up a good buy zone

Or a move to new highs from this congestion zone ( already enough cause built for that to happen )

I favor a move to new highs to some extent ...

Much less likely at this stage do I see much weakness occurring
The move up from the low spike was definitive ( breath at that point on the bullish% posted earlier was a possible very oversold )

I particularly see the character of the last bar as very positive
and the overall "theme" in the circled area as absorption

Just My opinion



> *Remember this:*
> A chart indication means that a stock is probably going so far in a
> certain direction only so long as its behavior continues to conform
> with the original indication. You must always be on the alert for
> ...





motorway


----------



## motorway (16 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Everyone can see the same lines and charts
It is the character that matters

Not what happens .. HOW it happens

the upthrust bar at the trend line
gave a strong appearance of weakness

Would have had people looking to go short

A Wyckoff ... last point of supply..

Subsequent response
the follow through

suggests to Me that
What selling there was 
As been absorbed

By smarter money
Who took advantage of the lines in the sand...

Again it is now  the subsequent response that matters...

Views and opinions
motorway


----------



## austek (17 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Seems to be two bob each way to me. 

 A real heart stopper for those of us sitting on the sidelines and waiting to get back in at a reasonable price.
We had the weak close Sept 5 yet many hopeful stocks rising on very low volume, was enough to push the XAO above the 6200 level. 

Hopefully today or later this week we can get some market direction. 
Still showing too much weakness for me atm.

austek


----------



## wavepicker (17 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is my take at the XAO pattern in the coming weeks.  I actually emailed this chart to two posters from here(Magdoran and Trade It) on the 27th August before the current consolidation started, stating that we where about to enter a sideways market for a few weeks.

If I am correct with this analysis, then the market will break to new recovery highs(this may all time high or a truncation, either way it should be close) in the next few weeks to complete this pattern before turning down again. Ofocurse I could be wrong and could turn down earlier, but I feel that TIME is most important and would prefer for the pattern to confirm the cycle point dates stated on the chart. This sideways contracting pattern  might actually be quite similar to the one put in on the 16th of July just BEFORE the final false break high was made. They are a great occasionaly, warning you that a trend maybe at risk of ending.

So if it does work out that way we might see a big move start in the weeks ahead.

Cheers


----------



## rub92me (19 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So does anyone think the XAO will not go up today??


----------



## Porper (19 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rub92me said:


> So does anyone think the XAO will not go up today??




Don't think today matters in the slightest, we will know early next week where we should be heading.Until then, I am out.

When the market is euphoric like today,a good sign to stand aside i.m.o.


----------



## motorway (20 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Update of the P&F chart

Trends arise from certain technical positions.

Transfer of ownership
( Weak to strong to weak to strong-------> )

And building of contingency

( What people are gonna do .. When it starts/finishes  going up/down/sideways etc..)

The last bricks are often laid in the horizontal zones seen  on P&F charts.

P&F charts have a trend constant. ( supply and demand is being added or subtracted. That is the only thing that can  make the chart move)

Because they are a chart of a( traded) price continuation Vs a (traded ) price reversal......

The  posted boxes themselves are in effect woven out of volume price and time.

This chart is poised to break higher

Several bullish characteristics are apparent..


The width from where preliminary demand appeared
The reversal rally from the low pole
The inability of the price action to make a 3 box reversal
(since the low ) .
several one and two box step backs that have tested and confirmed the strength...
And the small congestion zone recently formed.

A reaction back to the 50% level marked 
would only be "natural" ( hence healthy ).

But there is enough work already done to make new highs........


Now I am just Sharing some P&F technique for those interested.

No advice Just for Discussion...

Such a  reversal from the (one , can be another thing if We see another ) low pole
tends to  negate a bearish definition.

The small congestion zone
can be considered a "stepping stone" built above the main zone of accumulation.........

The shape is suggestive of absorbing supply
( hence an old name " a ladle"  and as a pivotal zone  of a change of the equilibrium of demand and supply " a fulcrum " )

again


> Remember this:
> A chart indication means that a stock is probably going so far in a
> certain direction only so long as its behavior continues to conform
> with the original indication. You must always be on the alert for
> ...





Patterns make up larger patterns
There is  a possibility that on a larger scale
A large reversal formation is being built
with the low pole as the  mid pattern reaction.

My opinion would be that the characteristics above 
make that at this stage doubtful.
As would  coordinating with the vertical bar chart.

motorway


----------



## Edwood (20 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Update of the P&F chart




cheers for the updated pnf Motorway.  that pole reversal does look bullish and it looks as tho we'll get a double top breakout here but think it will be constrained by that line of 4 X's at the previous highs.  if that goes should get a decent move...  dunno what you'd call that?  a quintuplet breakout?


----------



## Edwood (20 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

MW - just for interest sake - continuing on with your pnf is it possible to add a vertical count off the row of x's out of the pole?  ta in advance,


----------



## motorway (20 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Ed

here is the above chart as a 3 box reversal

Vertical counts have a whole different logic underlying them..

The chart does graphically show how strong the XAO had been
How much more significant this correction .

But how much more significant the rally from the bottom of the pole

Bullish% went to 18% at the low

It is now back to nearly 50%

That is 50% of stocks are on P&F double top buy signals....

Vertical Counts rely on a thrust and ease of movement model
They give much larger targets..

The downside target as been negated
the first upside vertical count looks reasonable

the large one ( which takes in the pole ) is still to be properly activated
and looks ambitious....
However it should be as  it is classifying the pole and reversal as 
aggressive accumulation..

How would We recognize aggressive accumulation

one way is an aggressive rally out of an oversold position

The 18% bullish percent  + the Pole reversal


Counts are stop look and listen points
measure the relative strength of the rally
( By their fulfillment or negation )

But should look to the most modest counts first

If You ride trends that constantly fulfill counts
Your are riding along with the smart money..

No smart money
No accumulation

Then P&F charts 
look like they have been drawn from roulette wheels

and not "manipulation"

Got to fly

Should coordinate The 1 box rev with the 3 box

and add the bar chart

You have triplescopic vision  at the very least

motorway


----------



## Edwood (20 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

nice one Motorway thanks v. much for the detailed response & analysis!  its always useful to see what pnf targets are out there as they have an uncanny knack of being achieved.  hear what you're saying re: the high target

so trend is intact, we're heading for a quadruple top pnf breakout so could encounter some resistance here, but otherwise it all looks good for higher levels (imo)


----------



## motorway (22 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

An Update on the Bullish% chart

Again... Every stock on the ASX is charted as a 2%x3 P&F chart
Then the % that are defined as bullish by having the last column of Xs
exceeding the previous columns of Xs  ( A three box reversal  double top buy signal ) is charted on a 1x3 P&F chart that will oscillate between 0 and 100.

It is important to distinguish between The Trend and The Position..

These two aspects of all market behavior, are built from each other and form and create each other..........

Maximizing profit is being in harmony with trends.

The line of least resistance.

Harmony is not the same as following................

When weak hands start following trends.
The strong hands start to  take advantage of the position of those trends.
When weak hands become focused on position ..Strong hands have already anticipated the new emergent trends...

Trend and position have ( at least  ) two aspects...

There is the position in terms of position in the trend
and there is position in terms of  the  breadth of the trend.

The bullish % is an easy way of obtaining a bottom up view of an aspect of a markets technical position.  whereas analyzing an  index is giving a top down view..

With less than 50% of stocks on a P&F bullish definition..
Many stocks are still in vicious downtrends 
But it is in (some of)  these stocks ( many of these are smaller stocks ).
That the strongest technical positions will be found...
And the strongest and most profitable longs will in the fullness of time  be found.

However , Oversold needs to be confirmed by the presence of accumulation.
Without the confirmation of accumulation all you have is a still ongoing downtrend and the catching of falling knives that will cut deep.

The same with overbought and its confirmation by distribution

Some pondering on trend and position

Wyckoff said it back in 1908
The study of responses......

A strong Technical position ensues when all who would sell have sold .
When lower prices can no longer  stimulate any following..


motorway


----------



## Bronte (23 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For those that are interested:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autumnal_Equinox_Day
Today is our: *Spring Equinox 23rd September 2007 *
Any members know why this is *so* important to XAO Analysis?


----------



## doctorj (23 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bronte said:


> Any members know why this is so important?



The ying and the yang are finally balanced today so the chi is finally in balance with the feng shui which gives the best time of year to read the tea leaves and talk bollocks?.

Am I close?


----------



## Sean K (23 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bronte said:


> For those that are interested:
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autumnal_Equinox_Day
> Today is our: *Spring Equinox 23rd September 2007 *
> Any members know why this is *so* important?



Isn't there a Gann thread somewhere Brontman?


----------



## Bronte (23 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bronte said:


> For those that are interested:
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autumnal_Equinox_Day
> Today is our: *Spring Equinox 23rd September 2007 *
> Any members know why this is *so important to XAO Analysis?*



Lol doc,
Hi kennas,
Relevant to 'XAO Analysis'
Brontdog


----------



## Jadefox (23 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Bronte,

Would be good if you could elaborate. I'm aware that it's significant but not sure how. What can we expect - a turning point of some kind? Please share what you know - if you don't mind.


----------



## Bronte (23 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Jadefox said:


> Hi Bronte,
> 
> Would be good if you could elaborate. I'm aware that it's significant but not sure how. What can we expect - a turning point of some kind? Please share what you know - if you don't mind.



Of course 


High 21st September 1987 
High 25th September 1997 (10 yr anniversary).
High ???? September 2007 (20 yr anniversary). Maybe.....


----------



## Bronte (23 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bronte said:


> *High 21st September 1987 *
> High 25th September 1997 (10 yr anniversary).
> High ???? September 2007 (20 yr anniversary). Maybe.....



*ALL ORDS (XAO) Chart:*


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bronte said:


> *ALL ORDS (XAO) Chart:*




Thanks for the post and information.


----------



## Nick Radge (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sep 1977? The market rallied some 30% in the following 12-months.

Sep 1967? The market rallied some 27% in the following 12-months.

Sep 1957? Market rallied 5% in the following 12-months

I can go back to Sep 1877 if we want some real statistical samples, although even then its borderline relevance.


----------



## Bronte (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Sep 1977? The market rallied some 30% in the following 12-months.
> 
> Sep 1967? The market rallied some 27% in the following 12-months.
> 
> ...



That would be interesting, please do.
Thank you Nick


----------



## Bronte (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Thanks for the post and information.



You are very welcome


----------



## Nick Radge (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For you Battman? Busy painting my toe nails...


----------



## >Apocalypto< (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> For you Battman? Busy painting my toe nails...




what is that post about Nick?


----------



## Nick Radge (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> what is that post about Nick?




A long and sullen history I'm afraid.


----------



## Bronte (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nick you need to chat with Battman64
Not now we have Record Highs in the Aussie markets
After the market closes please.
If that is OK with Joe 
Live Chat here please.


----------



## Bronte (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bronte said:


> Nick you need to chat with Battman64
> Not now we have Record Highs in the Aussie markets
> After the market closes please.
> If that is OK with Joe
> Live Chat here please.



Fantastic day on the markets 
Apart from visiting Reefcap regularly (not posting)
We haven't had any contact with you since inviting you to our home..
Two and a half, three years ago (Trading Expo At Burswood, Perth)
Please believe us.. it is the truth.
I hope you accept to chat Nick.


----------



## doctorj (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nick & Bronteman - could you please consider continuing this discussion via ASF's private messaging feature, where possible, I'd like to keep this thread on topic.

Thanks,
doctorj


----------



## Go Nuke (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Um yeah..isn't anyone concerned about the XAO getting back up to those triple tops we had lately?

I'm guessing its all up to whatever news comes out of the U.S this week.

Housing figures from what ive seen on CNBC.
That doesn't sound good to me at these times of housing crisis in the U.S


----------



## theasxgorilla (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Go Nuke said:


> Um yeah..isn't anyone concerned about the XAO getting back up to those triple tops we had lately?
> 
> I'm guessing its all up to whatever news comes out of the U.S this week.
> 
> ...




Still not out of the woods yet, BUT, based on the close today the resistance around 6400 (triple tops if you like) is looking like being toasted.  Another strong day or two and you'd have to say it's blue skies for the XAO.

What does CNBC say about the rally on the XAO?


----------



## GreatPig (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's my interpretation. Broken recent trendline resistance to be back on top of the trendline, but now squashed between the line and the ATH resistance.

Looks rather promising though.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## WaySolid (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Sep 1977? The market rallied some 30% in the following 12-months.
> 
> Sep 1967? The market rallied some 27% in the following 12-months.
> 
> ...



Yeh it's an interesting one the decennial pattern. 

Larry Williams was big on this, though there really aren't enough samples to make something of statistical relevance (based on my meagre understanding), I know of anecdotal research that digs a bit deeper (into the 1800's and so forth) which seems to confirm something 'might' be going on, but good luck basing a trading strategy around it..

Good for selling newsletters though.


----------



## nizar (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well well well...
looks to me like a blue sky close.

Seems like the bull is back... 

Should be good.


----------



## nizar (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Sep 1977? The market rallied some 30% in the following 12-months.
> 
> Sep 1967? The market rallied some 27% in the following 12-months.
> 
> ...




Nick, are you saying we are likely to get some sort of rally starting from Sep 2007?

How about more recent years such as September 1987 and September 1997?

I would expect the 12-months after September 1987 probably wouldnt have been positive.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Sep 1977? The market rallied some 30% in the following 12-months.
> 
> Sep 1967? The market rallied some 27% in the following 12-months.
> 
> ...




Thanks for the post and information.


----------



## nizar (24 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And I just noticed the last 5 weeks lows to highs on the XAO is about 17%... Nice.


----------



## powerkoala (25 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

for all the bears out there.
are you hiding in the caves?
XAO just turn green after red for couple minutes.
now just breaking record high at 6490.
YES. it is almost 6500.
are we riding to a new wave of bulls?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (25 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

STRONGER FOR LONGER!


----------



## Nick Radge (25 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Nick, are you saying we are likely to get some sort of rally starting from Sep 2007?




I'm not saying anything. My response was made to a comment that alluded to the spring equinox being a bearish event. However, the perpetrator of that comment, as usual, left it open ended so as to never be proven incorrect. (Very similar to the technique of using delayed charts to call movements in the SPI I might add)

A more appropriate comment would be:

"Following the spring equinox of September 1987 and September 1997 we may expect to see a decline/rally....blah blah blah"

What we are left is a hanging comment that will work either way.

I would also say that making a comment based on a two-sample event is quite ridiculous and proves nothing more than randomness. I only had to add 3 more decades to prove the randomness of the comment. As WaySolid has stated, good luck basing a trading strategy around it.

We could use some real stats that people can learn from:

*September:*
September signifies everything that can go wrong with the market and holds the title for many of the major highs as well as lows for investors. September has been the start of 3 major bear markets, including the longest in duration; 110 months from 1987 to November 1996. The combined total bear market months of these 3 declines has been 152, however what is notable are their swiftness. The peak to trough decline in 1987 is the most memorable, lasting just 5-months. 1960 lasted 2 months and 1997 lasted just a single month. The average monthly decline for these 9 solitary months is -11.67% making September a nasty period to enter the market. September has also been the absolute low of 4 bear markets (1969, 1970, 1998, 2001). August seems to offer a lead for an impending negative September. There is a 72% chance that September will be negative if August has also been negative, although this failed to alert us in 1987. The average decline after a negative August is -2.83%. *The last 5-trading days of the month offer a positive respite with an average gain of +1.1% into month end. *

*October*
One wonders about the psychological impact that 1987 has had on this generation of investors. It’s one that is most in our minds even though the worst bear market (1970 – 1974) was more devastating in terms of depth and peak-trough duration. It’s clear that the days leading into the shaky end of October still haunts investors. The broader index drops consistently from mid-month till month end, possibly a flight-to-quality dash to cash. It also seems that should no damage occur in October investors are brimming with confidence and plunge headlong back into the market come November. October is the end of the worst 6-month investment period. A positive September lead appears beneficial for October gains.  There is a 71% chance that October will be follow higher after a strong September, and 8 of the last 10 positive September years have led to a positive October with the average gain being +2.05%.


----------



## nizar (25 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> We could use some real stats that people can learn from:
> 
> *September:*
> September signifies everything that can go wrong with the market and holds the title for many of the major highs as well as lows for investors. September has been the start of 3 major bear markets, including the longest in duration; 110 months from 1987 to November 1996. The combined total bear market months of these 3 declines has been 152, however what is notable are their swiftness. The peak to trough decline in 1987 is the most memorable, lasting just 5-months. 1960 lasted 2 months and 1997 lasted just a single month. The average monthly decline for these 9 solitary months is -11.67% making September a nasty period to enter the market. September has also been the absolute low of 4 bear markets (1969, 1970, 1998, 2001). August seems to offer a lead for an impending negative September. There is a 72% chance that September will be negative if August has also been negative, although this failed to alert us in 1987. The average decline after a negative August is -2.83%. *The last 5-trading days of the month offer a positive respite with an average gain of +1.1% into month end. *
> ...




Thanks for that.


----------



## Edwood (25 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> for all the bears out there. are you hiding in the caves?




they've all been stuffed by the Fed


----------



## Edwood (25 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

slightly off topic but I see a new market is being set up in Oz as a hub for 'green' matters - looks interesting.  Good to see that Australia is taking a lead in the field (no pun in intended)

http://www.fexclimate.com/Public/Default.aspx

http://www.fexclimate.com/Public/NewsItem.aspx?NewsId=1


----------



## motorway (25 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just switch focus to the S&P300 index

It is clearly in BULL Confirmed STATUS



> *Bull Confirmed - Bull confirmed is, just as it sounds, the most bullish signal the index emits, giving traders a green light to take on multiple long positions with confidence. In the bull confirmed phase, the Bullish Percent Index has a column of X's on its right edge, and this column must have surpassed the next column of X's over to the left by at least one square. Since a market that is in bull confirmed mode is upwardly trending, directional indicators such as MACD are more appropriate than oscillators during this phase. *
> Bear Confirmed - Again, just as it sounds, the bear confirmed phase is the most bearish signal the index gives. In this mode, the Bullish Percent Index has a column of 0's on the far right edge of the chart, and this column must surpass the next column of 0's to the left by at least one square down. Since a market in the bear confirmed mode is trending downward, only short positions should be considered during it, and directional indicators are again the weapons of choice.
> 
> Bull Correction - The bull correction mode, following only a bull confirmed phase, is a sideways market or a market experiencing a correction after a bull confirmed phase. The chart features a column of 0's on the right edge that has yet to pass the last 0's column. Long positions should be taken with caution because a bull correction can reverse into a bear confirmed. During the bull correction mode, look to oscillators like stochastic for insight into timing trades.
> ...




I have also overlaid the Bullish% chart on the Daily bar chart

It tells a nice story
The interaction of various aspects of trend, position, and volume.

(Three of Wyckoff's four qualities, The fourth being time as in duration).

What Do We use P&F for.... Many reasons

But one is to set tests that market behavior must pass
(unlike a Bar chart it is a pure (smoothed) wave chart)

Tests and responses...

In the current bull trend there has never been such a loss of confidence..

This  is very significant.... And Yet We are back to new highs So soon after a classic selling climax.... P&F will set new tests and We will have new responses....

The volume spikes are important..


The trend will sustain itself by reaction and rotation.

motorway


----------



## powerkoala (25 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

6503.....
no need to say anything


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> The volume spikes are important..




Motorway

I'm never that sure how much credence to give to a derivative induced volume spike. As a large amount of that volume is unwinding of arbitrage positions. 

I would think the if you take out the futures roll over the volume on that chart would have been in decline the last two weeks.


----------



## motorway (25 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Point taken

Still We have had more that a short covering rally
and the subsequent action and the subsequent volume
will clarify...

What happens to demand now ...

Does it dry up and price reacts back
Start to rotate
(focus on relative strength)
keeps chasing the resource story..

That could be said (derivatives) about earlier Volume spikes as well...

What matters in deciding if any of that volume was "good buying"
is the subsequent response..


Point taken though...

Cap weighted indexes are in some way suspect.

The Bullish% chart (and those like it) give another view.

Every Stock in the universe has equal weight.

Bullish% is a market breath indicator associated with Chartcraft .. (A.W. Cohen)...

It is a class of chart designed to be a "trend barometer" .
And I see many similarities to other "position sheets" like Richard Wyckoff's and
Alexander Wheelan's

It is a bottom up "inductive" analysis....

In Bullish% method.... on the 13nov06 the B% was in very overbought territory. It then traced out a "topping pattern" and was signalling bear confirmed well before the index turned down...


It is now in a very strong position.............

Bullish% while related to Wyckoff"s position sheet is simpler
and much simpler than Wheelan's (study Points in Point and Figure)




> We may, if we wish, employ the reverse of this procedure, namely,
> the inductive method of reasoning from the particular to the
> general. That is, we may form our conclusions by first analyzing the
> positions of individual stocks. Then by classifying these
> ...




Every stock is either in a Bullish or Bearish position on a 2%x3 P&F chart
(can make it more or less sensitive ie 1% or .5%, But You must work with Your data set, and in keeping with Your needs)

When we combine all the individual stock positions
We have Our Barometer...



> A barometer is an instrument used to measure atmospheric pressure. It can measure the pressure exerted by the atmosphere by using water, air, or mercury. Pressure tendency can forecast short-term changes in the weather. Numerous measurements of air pressure are used within surface weather analysis to help find surface troughs, high-pressure systems, and frontal boundaries.




On the market it  measures buying and selling pressure.
Sunny days can only last so long
And a storm can not blow hard for ever..

Tension builds and is released
When markets are very oversold or overbought
It is time to be especially aware of the divergences and convergences.
We would like to see where the smarter money might be.



> to help find surface troughs, high-pressure systems, and frontal boundaries.





motorway


----------



## sassa (25 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> 6503.....
> no need to say anything




Please call tomorrow and rub it in when the index reaches new heights???Pre-market reports from America say that the dim outlooks of consumer confidence and August home sales COULD raise the threat of recession.The CNN headline was-"Consumer Woes Hit Wall Street."
We know that pre-market reports are leaked and the market futures are down.The European markets are down but there is still time to rally before opening of the NYSE and plenty of time if the leaked reports were hot air.


----------



## Awesomandy (25 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> 6503.....
> no need to say anything




If it was over 6500 at closing, I would've seriously consider dumping my bear suit. It looked a little fizzled this afternoon though, and finished at only 6490. It has gone up 29.8 points but more than 20 points were solely from BHP, so it looks very worrying for me - apart from the Olympic Dam rumour, the market hasn't gained much at all. 

For now, I'll remain cautious, and sit out for a little bit longer (apart from some day trades). The European market is down around 1% at the moment, and it appears that the US open might be down as well. But then again, there is still plenty of time to make up lost ground. In the worst (best) case, I'll just put the bear on a bbq.


----------



## theasxgorilla (26 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Cap weighted indexes are in some way suspect.
> 
> The Bullish% chart (and those like it) give another view.
> 
> Every Stock in the universe has equal weight.




*Motorway*, that's a terrific chart you've posted where the index is super-imposed together with the the bullish%.  Reveals the difference (and divergences) between the cap-weighted measures and attempts to do likewise across the broader market.

Cap-weighted indexes are suspect in a sense...but the implication is that it typically takes more money flow (force in VSA??) to move those top end stocks, so there for it makes some sense that they should have greater effect on the outcome of the index.  On the other hand it helps to keep that in perspective if you're holding stocks from a _lesser-cap_ portion of the index...particularly if your stocks are going nowhere or down...I suppose 

Thanks for sharing.

ASX.G


----------



## Sean K (26 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> 6503.....
> no need to say anything



PK, you probably could say a little more.....Why do you think we're hitting all time highs when US recession is highly probably? And for that matter, why has the US recovered so quickly to support our market?


----------



## Trembling Hand (26 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> If it was over 6500 at closing, I would've seriously consider dumping my bear suit.
> 
> For now, I'll remain cautious, and sit out for a little bit longer (apart from some day trades). In the worst (best) case, I'll just put the bear on a bbq.




Bear in mind not in action is probably a straight jacket not a bear suit.

I would thing there are stacks of people on the side lines here. Just waiting for "confirmation" that we are not going to crash 87 style. Just to sucker them in closer to the top than a good bottom.


----------



## powerkoala (26 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> PK, you probably could say a little more.....Why do you think we're hitting all time highs when US recession is highly probably? And for that matter, why has the US recovered so quickly to support our market?




this is worrying me, kennas.

xao at record high due to metal prices bounce back strongly and oil price dip below $80, but it appears only few "bluechip" sp got bulls. we know BHP and RIO are the major contributors, but both of them due to "rumors" such as BHP is sitting on the most biggest gold deposit and RIO takeover from BHP.
yesterday, all europe markets end up in red area, as well pre market from us. 
but us market bounces up strongly at close.

so are we in the new bull trend or "few" ppl trying to make us think we are (the ppt maybe) ?


----------



## Sean K (26 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> this is worrying me, kennas.
> 
> so are we in the new bull trend or "few" ppl trying to make us think we are (the ppt maybe) ?



No matter what the fundamentalist economists tell us about the market, the charts are saying we are in a long term bull market trend. So, they are either wrong, or they are wrong.... 

I don't understand the fundamentals of the market enough to comment in detail, so while it's going up, I'm fully invested and learning to hedge my position. Fine principle when you got in a few years ago perhaps....


----------



## powerkoala (26 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> No matter what the fundamentalist economists tell us about the market, the charts are saying we are in a long term bull market trend. So, they are either wrong, or they are wrong....
> 
> I don't understand the fundamentals of the market enough to comment in detail, so while it's going up, I'm fully invested and learning to hedge my position. Fine principle when you got in a few years ago perhaps....




well, i can't agree 100% for sure.
still jitters about us recession though.
we will see how aussie will go from here.
regards.


----------



## Sean K (26 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> well, i can't agree 100% for sure.



Of course. I'm expecting to be called naive shortly.  

No fishing smilie required.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (26 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> well, i can't agree 100% for sure.
> still jitters about us recession though.
> we will see how aussie will go from here.
> regards.




There is no recession.


----------



## Sean K (26 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> There is no recession.



You talking about Aus or US market Snake? Some commentators are saying the US is already in recession, or parts of it anyway. Just not Wall Street perhaps!


----------



## Awesomandy (26 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> PK, you probably could say a little more.....Why do you think we're hitting all time highs when US recession is highly probably? And for that matter, why has the US recovered so quickly to support our market?






trembling Hand said:


> Bear in mind not in action is probably a straight jacket not a bear suit.
> 
> I would thing there are stacks of people on the side lines here. Just waiting for "confirmation" that we are not going to crash 87 style. Just to sucker them in closer to the top than a good bottom.




I think the bad data was already expected and priced into the market, and now that they have been confirmed, it appears that there are hopes that interest rates may be lowered further. The result seems to be that the fund managers have taken a shopping trip. 

I think the market will have to adjust sooner or later (and my gut feeling is that it is probably very soon), so I'm a bear in that sense. However, while some people (esp. hedge funds) are still trying to milk the very last drop of goodness from the current trend, I might as well join in for the ride.


----------



## theasxgorilla (26 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> so are we in the new bull trend or "few" ppl trying to make us think we are (the ppt maybe) ?




In short I doubt anyone knows the answer to that question.  I'd like a weekly close at all-time-highs, at the high of the bar with a decent range, well clear of any previous support levels to be comfortable saying we're off again.  What is worth noticing is that in spite of attempts to draw correlation between our market and the US/Europe it is quite clear that our market is it's own entity.  Don't get me wrong...there is extreme correlation between world equity markets, and as a rubber band stretches we're probably not going to ever draw too far away from some amount of anchoring to the US...but given that we're so resources heavy as an economy it only stands to reason that events in those markets have a disproportionate effect on our parochial little market.


----------



## sassa (27 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> I think the bad data was already expected and priced into the market, and now that they have been confirmed, it appears that there are hopes that interest rates may be lowered further. The result seems to be that the fund managers have taken a shopping trip.
> 
> I think the market will have to adjust sooner or later (and my gut feeling is that it is probably very soon), so I'm a bear in that sense. However, while some people (esp. hedge funds) are still trying to milk the very last drop of goodness from the current trend, I might as well join in for the ride.




The posturings of some of us in this thread have turned out to be hot air at the moment and nothing else.I would like to say that your analysis so far is a well thought one.While negative events are still to occur,the effects they will have on the market would appear to be minimal given the response to the ones that have already taken place not only by the Fed and financial institutions,but foreign investors as well.All I can see now is another bubble to be dealt with somewhere in the future.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (27 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> You talking about Aus or US market Snake? Some commentators are saying the US is already in recession, or parts of it anyway. Just not Wall Street perhaps!




I was talking about the US Kennas. There is no official recession regardless of what the doomsayers are saying. How are you hedging? With CFD's?


----------



## Sean K (27 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> I was talking about the US Kennas. There is no official recession regardless of what the doomsayers are saying. How are you hedging? With CFD's?



Yep, and the index. Plus I've reduced my stock holdings from 40 ish to 8.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (27 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

FWIW, a few of my indicators are indicating? a 'tapering' or overbought situation. Consolidation or pullback soon? Full moon tonight?


----------



## chops_a_must (27 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> FWIW, a few of my indicators are indicating? a 'tapering' or overbought situation. Consolidation or pullback soon? Full moon tonight?




Odd that, because mine are suggesting that the blue chips are breaking out left, right and centre, with the mid caps perhaps following suit tomorrow.

I think it's important to note that the performance of the index of late has been almost purely due to BHP. If we get others joining in, it could get pretty spectacular.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (27 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Odd that, because mine are suggesting that the blue chips are breaking out left, right and centre, with the mid caps perhaps following suit tomorrow.
> 
> I think it's important to note that the performance of the index of late has been almost purely due to BHP. If we get others joining in, it could get pretty spectacular.




Yes, it's very bullish, but a few indexs are having trouble keeping up with the action eg XDJ, so as you say, is it a case of the rest of the market staging a catch up rally too or the leaders to have a breather? From the low of the correction to today is nearly a 20% gain I recall from memory, stand corrected? Either way, a breathtaking advance all the same to levels where a few of the bobble head stockbrokers were saying we were due for a 'healthy' correction only a few weeks ago in the midst of the 'correction we had to have'?


----------



## Awesomandy (27 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Full moon tonight?




It was 2 nights ago, actually, so it looks like the werewolfs bought into the market. 



chops_a_must said:


> I think it's important to note that the performance of the index of late has been almost purely due to BHP.




Yes, that's is quite worrying, I think. If we take BHP out of the index last week, XAO would be at least 40 - 50 points lower than what it is currently. Having said that, however, the market is stronger today as a whole, after the 100 points rise in the US last night.


----------



## sassa (28 September 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Congratulations to the bulls for the breaking of the 6600 barrier today at 2.53pm.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Where have all the crash like 1987 Bears gone?
Where have all the comparison charts from previous crashes gone???


----------



## Edwood (2 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

in denial TH







as soon as that pennant broke to the upside the bears had no choice but to go to ground


----------



## CFD (2 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If you are referring to October, I think there may be a few days left.


----------



## Awesomandy (2 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Where have all the crash like 1987 Bears gone?
> Where have all the comparison charts from previous crashes gone???




Still waiting, actually.
The XAO has gone about 20% up bottom to top in the past 45 days, and that's quite scary, in terms of how high it has went, and how things will be when somebody realises, whoops, this is perhaps a little bit too high.


----------



## Bithead (2 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting to read this thread now. Today I got a bit worried and cashed the portfolio - down to three holdings now (BHP, SMX, BNB). That was before I found this thread tonight.

I gotta admit, it feels scary up here - the charts look solid enough, but, well, it IS a long way down if the market decides to drop. So I'm taking a rest for a couple of weeks and looking for a new strategy. But on the bright side, the air up here is great! And the ride has been spectacular! 

Mid caps do have potential as the earlier poster suggested, but I'm looking for any selections to hold long in case it does go. Suggestions and reasons?

  Bithead

PS. if it does go down, I'll jump deeper into BHP...


----------



## >Apocalypto< (4 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Where have all the crash like 1987 Bears gone?
> Where have all the comparison charts from previous crashes gone???




Looks they will be making a come back soon TH


----------



## Awesomandy (4 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Looks they will be making a come back soon TH




I wouldn't say so, really.
Even a drop of 20% now would mean we are going to be at ~5280, which is still higher than where we were exactly 1 year ago.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Looks they will be making a come back soon TH




What I find interesting is it seems that many have missed out on one of the best moves in recent times because of Fear. I would imagine that most punters here can get in slowly and out in an instant but many have watched this rise for weeks and done nothing but call themselves Bears. Now as we top out with a good chance to drop hard if the "market" doesnt like the US jobs reports they have gone quiet and will probably not short anything until we have a nasty down day if at all.

It would nice to hear from a Bear that has actually shorted something rather than someone who is all cash. Not meaning to be a ****hole just don't think that is all that Bearish but rather paralysis.


----------



## nizar (4 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Looks they will be making a come back soon TH




Maybe XAO finds support at the previous highs of 6450? It was resistance for a while.

Then away again?


----------



## >Apocalypto< (4 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> What I find interesting is it seems that many have missed out on one of the best moves in recent times because of Fear. I would imagine that most punters here can get in slowly and out in an instant but many have watched this rise for weeks and done nothing but call themselves Bears. Now as we top out with a good chance to drop hard if the "market" doesnt like the US jobs reports they have gone quiet and will probably not short anything until we have a nasty down day if at all.
> 
> It would nice to hear from a Bear that has actually shorted something rather than someone who is all cash. Not meaning to be a ****hole just don't think that is all that Bearish but rather paralysis.





Good points TH,

I was in and out long on the xjo during the recent rises also long a fair amount on the AUD/USD

But i missed alot of the move due to my need to run in and out, was it fear or  inexperience a bit of both but the other day i looked at that move and thought jeez that was 800+ points a massive move.

I am short on the xjo from 11.30 also just went short on the AUD/USD.

will it crash i don't know.

one more point,

this move up was a massive hope run in my opinion we smashed the us in drive due to the BHP issue that really drove us up last couple weeks! yes there were normal continuation points in the trend, but it was still a impulse from the low that got fueled and fueled. that is my 2cents.......


----------



## gfresh (4 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Last couple of weeks BHP and CBA have rallied quite well.. 

Together they make up 14.54% of the XAO index (9.8% and 4.74% capitalisation respectively), and today they both fell quite significantly.


----------



## sassa (4 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> Last couple of weeks BHP and CBA have rallied quite well




Simply a case of "follow the leader."


----------



## Awesomandy (4 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> But i missed alot of the move due to my need to run in and out, was it fear or  inexperience a bit of both but the other day i looked at that move and thought jeez that was 800+ points a massive move.




I think that the size and speed of the recent move is quite rare, so I wouldn't say that you have done something wrong. In fact, those who would've stayed long in the market for the whole duration is either very smart, very brave and/or very stupid. The fact is, you have identified some opportunities, and you have put your money where your mouth is, so that's pretty well done in my books.


----------



## jtb (4 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Maybe XAO finds support at the previous highs of 6450? It was resistance for a while.
> 
> Then away again?




Will be interesting to see won't it Niz, because I'm wondering if thats where we'll diverge from he DOW


----------



## >Apocalypto< (5 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> I think that the size and speed of the recent move is quite rare, so I wouldn't say that you have done something wrong. In fact, those who would've stayed long in the market for the whole duration is either very smart, very brave and/or very stupid. The fact is, you have identified some opportunities, and you have put your money where your mouth is, so that's pretty well done in my books.




Cheers Andy,

We will see how the next few days work out.

If you look at the chart there where some text book entry's on the daily and on smaller time frames. I am not talking about day trading 4 hour is the lowest time frame i look at on the charts these days.

there was a band/range on the daily, the rate cut was a ripper entry broke minor range and showed buyer push, then BHP backed it very nicely! 

I have only been looking at charts from 08/05 that last move up and down is the biggest market moves I have ever seen. from looking at bottoms in sell offs. It did not look right to me from the angle of assent. but it held out based and broke out again so now i am thinking that its a very new learning experience for us all. That break of the bottom held no doubt about that. But now we are here can it be sustained.

Good trading Andy.


----------



## rub92me (12 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Will we ignore the sell-off in the US overnight again today? The SPI came back from an overnight high of 6897eek to 6800, so my bet is we'll see the XAO come off a fair bit too today. Then again, nothing would surprise me in the current climate though.


----------



## justjohn (12 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

the usual Friday profit -taking should happen  would'nt be surprised if there is a fair bit wiped off today:


----------



## Gekko (14 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So whats the consensus for the forthcomming week?

By trading/investing will be based around:

- a positive monday
- with 2 weeks of consolidation at these index levels

A bout of profit taking may dampen early Nov, but Dec looks like shaping up as a corker


----------



## sassa (14 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gekko said:


> So whats the consensus for the forthcomming week?
> 
> By trading/investing will be based around:
> 
> ...




Gekko,
You fail to explain your predictions,particularly why December is shaping up to be a CORKER.I presume you mean that the index is going to soar into the sky.I have learnt a lesson over the past 8 weeks.Predicting the market is impossible.If you have got it right,then it can be called a fluke."I told you so," is a phrase that should not be connected to the stock market.
No doubt,Monday should be positive.The Dow went up after our last trade on Friday and this is enough impetus to give our market a push.
"A bout of profit taking may dampen early November."It may dampen any day or days well before then.
Are these predictions or are you forearmed with knowledge that we all would like to know?


----------



## Sean K (15 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Did the XAO really hit 6800 today? WTF!! 

'Perhaps we'll find a way out of this correction?' LOL 

Can't keep running away like this. 

MACD on this chart just starting to fall over maybe.

Support back there, which looks pretty strong to me....


----------



## Bush Trader (16 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is a concern! It smells of a correction or at least some significant profit taking, what will it be greed or sence?

Cheers


BT


*Downgrades Continue In Market 
FN Arena News - October 16 2007 
By Greg Peel*

As the local stock market has hit new highs, FNArena has specifically been following the recent spate of analyst downgrades of stock recommendations. From October 5 to 12, the count was 29 downgrades to 12 upgrades, and when only ASX 200 stocks are considered that count was 24 to 6.
After two more days trading, another 17 stocks have been downgraded by analysts, with 8 upgrades.  Removing non-ASX 200 companies, the count is 11 to 5.

To summarise, overall down/upgrades since October 5 are running at 46:20 while the ASX 200 ratio is 35:11. Some stocks have been down/upgraded by more than one broker.

In almost every case, the main reason cited for the downgrade was a share price that had run too far beyond valuation. In almost every upgrade case the story was the same, only opposite.

New stocks to hit the downgrade team in the ASX 200 are AED Oil (AED), Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), Emeco Holdings ((EHL)), St George Bank ((SGB)), Westpac Bank ((WBC)) and Zinifex ((ZFX)). Outside the ASX 200 were AJ Lucas ((AJL)) and Treasury Group ((TRG)).
New stocks on the upgrade side are Crane Group ((CRG)), Metcash ((MTS)) and GWA International ((GWT)).

There were three downgrades and three upgrades for AGL Energy ((AGK)) this morning, meaning that stock came out neutral after a company specific profit downgrade and subsequent share price fall. Publishing & Broadcasting ((PBL)) downgrades continue following demerger uncertainty. The AED downgrade was anticipation of a lower oil price, while Macquarie put the sword to BHP Billiton ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) yesterday. Citi has been responsible for today's bank downgrades in an overall review of valuations.

As the ASX 200 crosses into negative 1% territory again this afternoon, it is fair to say today has been the first down-day of any significance since the Fed interest rate cut. This has followed a similar session in the US where analysts there, too, are beginning to suggest a pullback might be healthy. The Australian rally has been fuelled mostly by stronger commodity prices, which in turn have been fuelled largely by a weaker US dollar. Analysts at GSJB Were note there is "an almost universally positive sentiment" towards the resource sector at present.

Universally held opinions are always dangerous.

Weres highlights a shift away from mature G7 economies and into emerging market economies. (The analysts say "and Australia", but given Australia's success is derived from emerging markets you might as well call it an EM as well.) Before today the Hang Seng is up 44% year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite 122%, and the ASX 200 Resources 52%.

In Australia, industrial valuations are now back in the "extreme" zone, notes Weres, with the resource sector trading at a PE of 15x compared to the long term industrial average of 14.7x. Resource stocks usually trade at much lower PEs than their industrial counterparts because of commodity price volatility. Australian stocks are currently being "priced for perfection", notes Weres, suggesting no risk is being built in at all.

While China looks scary at 23x, PE s are backed up by 21% expected earnings growth. Such growth expectation is not the case in Australia, where industrial PEs are at 17.2x (over the 14.7x average). The inflation-adjusted figure is 19.7x, which is even more alarming given inflation risk is increasing. 

Small cap PEs are higher than large cap.

GSJB Were is advising a pullback to a Neutral stance on resource stocks.


----------



## wavepicker (16 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I just love it.

When the market starts to look the least bit shaky again the bulls flock to this thread looking for answers!!


----------



## Bush Trader (16 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> I just love it.
> 
> When the market starts to look the least bit shaky again the bulls flock to this thread looking for answers!!




I just put my bull out with the heifers, ..... no seriously.


Cheers


BT


----------



## Porper (16 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> I just love it.
> 
> When the market starts to look the least bit shaky again the bulls flock to this thread looking for answers!!




Quite interesting, we are at all time highs, just had the slightest of pullbacks and people are talking 87 again.

I don't think it would take much of an effort for the pros to take money from the mums and dads.It happened in August and will probably happen again.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (16 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Corrections are healthy. 
What is the panic picnickers?


----------



## sassa (18 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

WOW! Nearly 1% in three quarters of an hour.
What's happening?


----------



## sassa (18 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think I've seen history.I cannot recall seeing the All Ords rise over 1%
after a negative lead from Wall Street overnight.Yes?No?


----------



## nikki (18 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> I think I've seen history.I cannot recall seeing the All Ords rise over 1%
> after a negative lead from Wall Street overnight.Yes?No?




what negative lead from wall street? did you see the strong buying when the DJIA and S&P were both down nearly 1% in the afternoon (US time). 

the DJIA reversed after hitting resistance at around 13800.


----------



## Awesomandy (18 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Still, it needs to go up again tomorrow. We don't really want to have a resistance forming at the all time (closing) high of 6779.6.


----------



## Edwood (18 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

S&P was positive & Nasdaq was up 1% - Dow is not a good index to monitor imo, doesn't show the real story


----------



## austek (18 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Don't get me wrong, I only trade aust stocks, but the Comsec head up sheet showed FTSE up 63, HANG SENG up 486, Nas up 28, Nickkie up 150, S&P up 2.7 so I agree the market looked pretty much positive to me.

austek


----------



## nizar (18 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



austek said:


> Don't get me wrong, I only trade aust stocks, but the Comsec head up sheet showed FTSE up 63, HANG SENG up 486, Nas up 28, Nickkie up 150, S&P up 2.7 so I agree the market looked pretty much positive to me.
> 
> austek




The Hang Seng is the new DAX. Its a machine.



> In a report released earlier Thursday, Morgan Stanley Research analysts downgraded the view on Hong Kong markets to cautious sell, in view of stock valuations, which have "become untenable".
> 
> "We see a 30% probability of a correction to 24,000 in the coming three months, which would take us down to fair value, from there we could resume the bullish trend," the report added.




Source

30,000 to 24,000 is 20%  
Established markets like Hong Kong don't fall by 20%.
But I guess in 2000 it went from 18,000 to the 2003 low of about 8,000 which is >50% so anything is possible


----------



## wayneL (18 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> 30,000 to 24,000 is 20%
> *Established markets like Hong Kong don't fall by 20%.*
> But I guess in 2000 it went from 18,000 to the 2003 low of about 8,000 which is >50% so anything is possible



Look back more that 4 years.


----------



## theasxgorilla (18 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> The Hang Seng is the new DAX. Its a machine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




There is an explanation for the growth which once again lies in the equation of demand out-stripping supply.  Chinese investors are allowed to invest outside of China in select Hangseng listed stocks, skewing the index.

Frankly, Morgan Stanley is licking its finger and sticking it in the air with it's probability estimation and 'best-guess' at timing of a correction.  It's not a statistical equation...its a question of how much money do Chinese investors have and how big is their need to find and investable home for it off-shore.

It's the old saying, markets can stay irrational longer than...blah blah.


----------



## Gurgler (18 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As an educator of prospective Chinese emigrants, I see a lot of potential "offshore" investors amongst the parent group. 

There doesn't seem to be any stop to the enthusiasm of some locals. There is a strong history of saving amongst Chinese nationals; they are seeing 'investing'  in equities as  a more profitable form of saving - and the resource base is enormous AND they love gold!


----------



## greenfs (18 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We should not forget that the Chinese Govt has established its own Future Fund war chest with USD200B waiting to be spent, in the event of presumably any market correction, which restores sh value


----------



## Gurgler (19 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From an article entitled "Only human" in the Economist today, this sobering thought:
*
"The central banks' unprecedented public standing, which helped them in the fight against inflation, has also proved a double-edged sword. Blind faith that the Fed will always save the day encourages people to take even greater risks. Greed, unless it is reined in by fear, reaches out towards the calamitous moment when the central bankers' defences fail."*

Source: http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=9972381


----------



## wavepicker (19 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well the forecast some weeks ago (SP500 and XAO) was they would make some sort of high on 5th October  ± 1 day.

As mentioned back then this might be a second degree countertrend lasting 11-14 days OR it could be something bigger. Could not tell which 

The last high made in the SP500 came in 3 trading days later(just to throw a spanner in the works) than the date expected above and in the XAO 5 days later (assuming these highs hold that is) This was in contrast to the high on the 16th of July was  bang on time and the low on the 17th August which was also bang on time

It was clearly evident yesterday that the rally of the Wednesday arvo to late yesterday was a dud. Looking at the pattern on a micro level on an intraday chart it’s quite easy to see that the rally was a an EW double zigzag pattern which means it was corrective and not impulsive, as such the decline of today comes as no surprise.


The significant dates are 14/15th November and 20th November. Trouble is will this be a high or a low?  I would expect it to be a low of sorts


Cheers


----------



## sassa (19 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> Still, it needs to go up again tomorrow. We don't really want to have a resistance forming at the all time (closing) high of 6779.6.




What's your prognosis?
Market has topped?Profit taking?Wary of American economy?Financials overvalued because of bad debt?


----------



## >Apocalypto< (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> What's your prognosis?
> Market has topped?Profit taking?Wary of American economy?Financials overvalued because of bad debt?




I am short on the xjo,

I am calling this a correction to trading range. support at 6648. see what happens there.


----------



## Awesomandy (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> What's your prognosis?
> Market has topped?Profit taking?Wary of American economy?Financials overvalued because of bad debt?




It's more of a technical point of view, actually. Looking at the daily closing numbers, we have now touched ~6780 a 2nd time and then fell away from it. Ok, it's only been a week, since this has happened, so it's too early to make this call, but it's looking like there may be a chance that we won't break this mark for a while.

Still, stepping away from the (absolute beginner's) technical view, I still think that the worst is yet to come. I've been informed by an ex-fund manager that this is just the tip of the iceberg. The US housing numbers are on the way down as well. I've read articles which have the hypothesis that share market down turns would follow housing down turns. I'm not sure how valid this is, but I read it more than 6 months ago.

I also wouldn't take in too much of the large profits from a few of the companies. e.g. Intel. A short term market correction would not change the demand for computer chips, and they would still sell bucket loads of them where the economy is growing (i.e. China, India). Besides, their products would have to go from their factory -> wholesaler -> retailer/computer shop, which means if there's a downturn in consumer spendings, they wouldn't notice it back at Intel for at least a month or 2.

It would also be interesting to see where the money is coming from for the banks. If the profits are still unrealised and sitting in illiquid asset, well, personally, I wouldn't really count them as profit. If, in the worst case, the market crashes, they'll need a lot of luck finding a buyer for those assets at a reasonable price.

Of course, there are positive signs as well. China is still buying commodities like there's no tomorrow, if the current price and fx trends persist, I've been told that we could start up a smelter operation, melt the 5/10/20c coins, and sell them as scrap metal to make a profits because the scrap metal would be worth more than the face value of the coins.


----------



## nizar (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> I am short on the xjo,
> 
> I am calling this a correction to trading range. support at 6648. see what happens there.




All the best brother.
Looks to me like a double top on the daily.


----------



## Awesomandy (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> I am short on the xjo,




Good call. You're already in the money now.


----------



## reece55 (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> I am short on the xjo,
> 
> I am calling this a correction to trading range. support at 6648. see what happens there.




Jo
If your up mate, your target has been met NOW!

Heavy selling in the US tonight, congrats on the short, looks to be a big winner....

Cheers
Reece


----------



## nizar (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oh wow, looks like all that black friday 20th anniversary stuff turned out to be self-fulfilling


----------



## kgee (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

200 points down at lunchtime...man i'm going to start looking at tea leaves for the answer
still a long way from 87


----------



## Awesomandy (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kgee said:


> still a long way from 87




It's virtually impossible for a repeat of 87. After all, it was helped by the first generation of computer trading. 

Still, look at where we are now. If you pulled everything out when the markets hit the bottom in August, you are still very likely to be worse off then being remaining fully invested and then selling, say, on Monday when it opens.


----------



## sassa (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> I am calling this a correction to trading range. support at 6648. see what happens there.




What type of reaction or correction will we see Monday in response to the American market fall?


----------



## Sean K (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> What type of reaction or correction will we see Monday in response to the American market fall?



Probably 1.5 - 2 %.

Sheep will jump off the cliff. 

Wolves will take advantage.....


----------



## sam76 (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Probably 1.5 - 2 %.
> 
> Sheep will jump off the cliff.
> 
> Wolves will take advantage.....




smartest thing I've read all morning.   

have a good weekend all.


----------



## professor_frink (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> What type of reaction or correction will we see Monday in response to the American market fall?




Futures closed the evening session @ 6591, so you would  expect the XJO to be at about 6560-6565 at monday's open.

Personally, I'm expecting to see some longs puking up their positions right on open monday morning, followed by a pretty quick, but savage short covering rally in the first half hour before the main trend of the day asserts itself, which could go either way. It'll be a  good test for the bulls- they've run it up very hard since the August lows.


----------



## wavepicker (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The way I am looking at this, the next low in this current swing down has a good probability of being 14/15th November plus or minus a few days.  

The correction that started on 16th July was a 3 wave affair. The subsequent move up since the August low has been a 3 wave affair.

In EW parlance this gives only 2 possibilities as to what may follow.

•	The correction that started on the 16th July is unfinished and this is wave C of an irregular correction which will be an impulse and complete the correction.


•	The other possibility is that the market is tracing out a huge “Ending Diagonal” pattern and these generally subdivide into 3 waves for 12345 and wave 4 will overlap wave 1.
	If this is the case the current leg down will be deep but not lower than the last correction and will most likely  result in another leg up into next year.  If the “Ending Diagonal” pattern is happening,  then it will probably resolve in a very fast and deep move down next year.


Now which of these 2 pattern is tracing out?  Well it all depends on TIME.  For the wave C of the irregular flat scenario to be playing out, then the market has to take out the August 17 low by mid November. This will in effect complete the correction that started on the 16th July. Given that it’s only 4 weeks away then it might be a very fast move down.

If the market is unable to take out the August 17th low by mid November then most likely we get another bull leg up into next year (Jan –March). If this is the case it will be a very very significant cycle point high.

So either way IMO it all comes down to TIME. The cycle point for this last high was determined  at least 2 months in advance, just like the cycle point for the low 14/15th  November has determined in the same way.

Just the way I see it ATM


----------



## nikki (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

thanks Nick for the post.

how does your reading of the DJIA and S&P support your views. for e.g. has the DJIA stopped at 13 500 because of support or shock!! i.e. if the DJIA slides again because it closed below support will it not fall again on monday? the selling in the last 1 hour of the DJIA was heavy and fast.

i noticed that DJT did not slide as much as the DJIA. does this indicate some support or resistance to the overall move downwards.


----------



## sassa (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Sheep will jump off the cliff.
> 
> Wolves will take advantage.....




Exactly,the psychology of the market-_fear and greed.
_.
But the question to be answered is which one will be the stronger on Monday.
Will the momentum of the market be replaced with doubt?Perhaps we may have a repeat of August-down one day,up the next.
Will our correction be insignificant because,as David Iron(equity director,ABN AMRO)said on Thursday,"We've got a pretty strong economy,we've not got the exposure to the sub prime and we've a really significant boom in resources."Will decoupling have an effect?
There is a concensus among some economists in America that valuations have crept above the level associated with the top of a bull market.This upward trend is an indicator that the bull cycle is trending into a bear cycle.
This time the fear of economic uncertainity is coming to be the major driving factor in the American markets.Will the contagion spread here?


----------



## Nick Radge (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

nikki,
The patterns in the DJIA and S&P are slightly different but point to the same conclusions, that is, we should test the August lows again with a reasonable probability. The ASX pattern is called a 'running flat' which is where wave-(B) runs above the prior high. The US indices show a standard 'flat' pattern where wave-(B) makes a double top with the prior high. They both point to a return to the start of wave-(A) which was the August lows.

An important element of this scenario is what we witnessed back at those lows which was extremely high volume and complete rejection. This is clear background strength that will not go away. There is a very high chance that those buyers back then will step up to the plate again at the same levels. 

Nick

_
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## >Apocalypto< (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> nikki,
> The patterns in the DJIA and S&P are slightly different but point to the same conclusions, that is, we should test the August lows again with a reasonable probability. The ASX pattern is called a 'running flat' which is where wave-(B) runs above the prior high. The US indices show a standard 'flat' pattern where wave-(B) makes a double top with the prior high. They both point to a return to the start of wave-(A) which was the August lows.
> 
> An important element of this scenario is what we witnessed back at those lows which was extremely high volume and complete rejection. This is clear background strength that will not go away. There is a very high chance that those buyers back then will step up to the plate again at the same levels.
> ...




So have you been shorting the market Nick, are you short now?

I know wavepicker is the only member to have been warning of this since October 5th, if this is going to test the lows.

Wavepicker called this on the 5th of the month so hats off to you Wavepicker well done on your call.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> What type of reaction or correction will we see Monday in response to the American market fall?




Sassa,

when that support broke last night the range i had was also busted. So this is a new correction.

Like Bob pointed out there could be a fast counter on the cards soon. I am looking to add to my trade and sell the rallies.

Monday could see a fast panic break down in the morning madness, where and how fast the market can find buyers will tell us something. but personally i am really unsure of what Monday will bring.

we will know soon.


----------



## wavepicker (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> So have you been shorting the market Nick, are you short now?
> 
> I know wavepicker is the only member to have been warning of this since October 5th, if this is going to test the lows.
> 
> Wavepicker called this on the 5th of the month so hats off to you Wavepicker well done on your call.





Thanks Joseph,

It took an extra 3/5 trading days(SP500/XAO) than we first anticipated and had me scratching my head there for a while but looks like producing the goods now.

We have had a pretty good run with the movements  indices since July and when the "Master Of Time" - Magdoran re emerges we will have even more resources from which draw from. But for now, we are looking at mid November as the next important date and then Feb-March 2008 thereafter. 

Cheers


----------



## Awesomandy (20 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> An important element of this scenario is what we witnessed back at those lows which was extremely high volume and complete rejection. This is clear background strength that will not go away. There is a very high chance that those buyers back then will step up to the plate again at the same levels.




Personally, I'm not so sure if this will be as strong this time round. In August, there was a lot of greed around. People think that they should take advantage of the drop to buy into the market. If we head back into this range, I think that there will be a lot of fear that, perhaps the bull is really ending. But then, if there are enough buyers to form a double bottom for the indices, we would all be more than happy to join in. 



wavepicker said:


> But for now, we are looking at mid November as the next important date and then Feb-March 2008 thereafter.




In a way, I think this is how it will play out in real life as well. Say, the markets will keep moving down for a couple of weeks. Will the Feds come in to cut rates again? 

If they do, then we'll probably see another rally. Then there's Xmas holiday period, New Years, and then the Chinese New Years in Feb, and it would be around late Feb/early March when people start sorting out the mess. 

If the Feds don't cut rates, the markets will drop at a very quick rate. Sanity hits, and there will be a period of consolidation. Then, in a few months time, people will most likely start thinking "America is ill, but the rest of the world is still pumping along rather nicely." I would think that, at this time, the more stable/established and resource-heavy markets will start to recover.

Well, that's my  on a Saturday night (so, read with caution).


----------



## >Apocalypto< (21 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



reece55 said:


> Jo
> If your up mate, your target has been met NOW!
> 
> Heavy selling in the US tonight, congrats on the short, looks to be a big winner....
> ...




Hi Reece,

Thanks, yeh I am glad this one went to plan was squeezed out on a couple prior attempts!
I took two on Thursday night took profits on one Friday and holding the other, stop on break even.

The break on the Dow was a big surprise. 

How are you going? you been in the markets much? That was a great move up just massive! (from last bottom)

This is the IGxjo chart you can see the set up very well here. 

1. Main trend finished.
2. Price action chewed up time suggesting that was it.
3. Price made a near vertical thrust, failed at a new high confirmed a lower high also shows trend line as resistance.
4. Now, that support area has been broken.

Looking to sell the next rally.

Good trading to u Reece.


----------



## Nick Radge (21 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Trade_It,
It certainly is a great call by Wavepicker. No doubt about it. The evidence of a wave-(B) failure has been in place for numerous months. My own analysis looks at price patterns and their alternates as I'm sure Wavepickers' does as well. Until wave equality was met off the August lows then there has always been a risk of another significant leg down. Agree I don't attempt to pick it to the day, but the opportunity for shorts has been in place for several weeks once we started seeing minor overlapping.

Am I short. No. That's not part of my trading plan. I operate many strategies the core of which is longer term trend following. So yes, I am long and yes, I will take some pain come tomorrow. However, I also understand and more importantly accept that these excursions will occur from time to time. My trading  plan suits me and my requirements and will keep me in goos stead for the rest of my life. Thats all that interests me. 

I do not use time as Wavepicker does. I use seasonals which i personally find to be the most robust way of applying time to the markets. This is not to say what Wavepicker does is not appropriate - because clearly it has shown itself to be right here. However, it does not sit well with me. Gold is a very good example where seasonals showed the way forward when others were unable. Gold has always performed very strongly into and out of September. As Wavepicker will attest to from private mailings, I have been very long Gold since August. 

FWIW, if Gold has a positive October then there is an 89% chance of having a positive November.



> Personally, I'm not so sure if this will be as strong this time round. In August, there was a lot of greed around. People think that they should take advantage of the drop to buy into the market. If we head back into this range, I think that there will be a lot of fear that, perhaps the bull is really ending.




Awesomandy, 
You may well be right. I've put my view on the table for all to see. The drive into the August lows was not greed. It was panic. Nothing else drives prices like that except fear and panic. However, that panic was met by strong buying, the Smart Money if you like. They do not go away in a flash.

The Elliott Wave patterns suggest a return to those lows and then a reversal (unless we're going into a long term secular bear market). Secondly the volume shown back then is called background strength and usually it will contonue to hold.

Away from the technicals we cannot overlook other issues. The business cycle still has some time to run before peaking. Secondly, the China and India demand for our resources will not go away any time soon and whilst the Republicans let the dollar slide there will be continued demand for commodities. Lastly November is the start of the strongest 6-month period for stocks around the globe. The seasonal pattern has been around for over 50-years. The timing of the technicals and these secondary issues is the basis of my thinking.

_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## nikki (21 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

anyone have thoughts on this: i noticed that the DJIA broke the second line (below 13800) of support just at its close! i have no idea how to put a chart up!

it did this towards the end of the close of the market on friday!!

is this a natural sign that the DJIA will slip to its next support which seems very dangerous and far away. will this not be fueled with the 4-5% drops in the markets in asia which we will probably see tommorrow - followed by 2-3% in europe.


----------



## CFD (21 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> ~~
> I know wavepicker is the only member to have been warning of this since October 5th, if this is going to test the lows.
> ~~




Yes, congratulation wavepicker, on having the courage to stay with the call after it did not first go as thought by 5/10 and of course for making the call in the first place.  

You and Magdoran must be an awesome combination whenever you get together.


----------



## Gurgler (21 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nikki

I'm a little confused about which support level you are referring to - but then maybe I'm looking at the wrong chart (or looking at it incorrectly - I'm a very much new to this!).

Here's my chart. Talk me through the support you are seeing broken. Perhaps you meant 13500?


----------



## wavepicker (21 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hello Nick, How’s things?

Well done on the Gold position and hope it continues favourably.

I did not take Gold long position this time around instead opting to trade domestic stocks. The world seems to be “all the same market” these days as almost everything seems to be rising in unison because of liquidity in the form of credit that has flooded the markets over the last 5 years.

As far working with TIME it really depends on your market goals and the type of trading one aims to conduct. Both Magdoran and myself trade derivatives where timing is paramount and as such Seasonal tendencies may not be as effective at times.

What I use has nothing to with seasonalities, but rather uses  pattern analysis, and fixed time cycles. The end cycle points are not merely time points, they are the actual terminations of Elliott Waves and these can be determined from a very long way back in terms of time but not necessarily price or pattern(yet). I am sure there are very few who know of, or are using this approach.


I am fairly new at time analysis and certainly not in the league as Mag from whom I have learnt much. I have not seen anyone who has timed the market with such consistency as he has, and his methodology is by far the best I have seen to date in terms of working with time and price. 

It is not merely Mclaren applied, because I feel that Mclaren has not released the entirety of his knowledge for public consumption. Mag has pioneered his approach and taken it to a completely new level IMO.

Both our methods are different to each others, both have advantages and both have disadvantages. We have recently partnered to study both our methods in greater depth and hopefully fuse them together into a superior approach in the months ahead.

I had studied and battled with price level for years. This has been a drag on me.  Pattern analysis in the form of EW was a  great boost, but finally coming to the realization that the X axis is the easier on superior axis to use, has given tremendous confidence. Having said that, this approach is not for everyone, and requires adopting a completely different mindset to that of the traditional TA player. For starters, forget about moving averages, indicators, even traditional trendlines as they are more a distractions and will cause you to make errors when using our type of approaches.

Having said all that, it does not matter how good analysis one has, if they lack the correct psychological makeup or have not developed the traders midset which is much more important, everything else means jack!


Cheers


----------



## nikki (21 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gurgler said:


> Nikki
> 
> I'm a little confused about which support level you are referring to - but then maybe I'm looking at the wrong chart (or looking at it incorrectly - I'm a very much new to this!).
> 
> Here's my chart. Talk me through the support you are seeing broken. Perhaps you meant 13500?




sorry gurgler. i am wrong. it broke 13645 which seemed like a weakish support anyway. 

for some reason i thought it had broken 13489 which appears like a strong support line. 

if it breaks that i think 13335, 13182 are the next supports. after that, god help us all


----------



## Lachlan6 (21 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My take on the (XAO) is to still take a bullish outlook, UNTIL the wave structure is confirmed as a corrective Wave A,B,C advance. Therefore, this will be confirmed, only when the current wave (4), breaks through the top of the extended Wave (1), being at 6358. The likelihood of this occuring has increased somewhat after Wall Street's horrid Friday session so the retracement tommorow will be important. I am personally looking for support tommorow at 6570, being the typical Wave (4) 38.2% retracement level. If this hold's, who know's, but it is a good level to go off. 

If the market can bounce straight off these levels it will be very bullish, however if it doesnt and continues falling, the 6358 level must be watched like a hawk. The three retracement lines are the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% of the Wave (3) advance.


----------



## nizar (21 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lachlan6 said:


> My take on the (XAO) is to still take a bullish outlook, UNTIL the wave structure is confirmed as a corrective Wave A,B,C advance. Therefore, this will be confirmed, only when the current wave (4), breaks through the top of the extended Wave (1), being at 6358. The likelihood of this occuring has increased somewhat after Wall Street's horrid Friday session so the retracement tommorow will be important. I am personally looking for support tommorow at 6570, being the typical Wave (4) 38.2% retracement level. If this hold's, who know's, but it is a good level to go off.
> 
> If the market can bounce straight off these levels it will be very bullish, however if it doesnt and continues falling, the 6358 level must be watched like a hawk. The three retracement lines are the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% of the Wave (3) advance.




Hi Lachlan,

I'd say 6440-ish is a key support as well, being resistance for so long.


----------



## Edwood (21 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

gee there's a bit of back-slapping going on over here at the moment - did someone call the trade of the year or something?


----------



## SevenFX (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Futures closed the evening session @ 6591, so you would  expect the XJO to be at about 6560-6565 at monday's open.
> 
> Personally, I'm expecting to see some longs puking up their positions right on open monday morning, followed by a pretty quick, but savage short covering rally in the first half hour before the main trend of the day asserts itself, which could go either way. It'll be a  good test for the bulls- they've run it up very hard since the August lows.




Morning Professor.

Just few questions on your post..

Are you expecting to see the bargin hunters step in early (perhaps missing August Lows, & now being confident from August rally) to buy in early... only to get slaughtered by overall selloff.

The SPI seems to be pointing to a big gap down, so would not thing it will even come close to closing gap...is that your view...????

Also would you say there's a weak chance of closing UP (green day) and more likely chance of closing further down and your reasons would be appreciated.

Thanks
SevenFX


----------



## Kauri (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Thanks Joseph,
> 
> It took an extra 3/5 trading days(SP500/XAO) than we first anticipated and had me scratching my head there for a while but looks like producing the goods now.
> 
> ...




  Hi waves
                Miners time routines both have the end of this month/beginning of next month as potentially important, followed by another window in mid-November.
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## wavepicker (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Hi waves
> Miners time routines both have the end of this month/beginning of next month as potentially important, followed by another window in mid-November.
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Hello Kauri, Miners routines look to be quite impressive in the right hands.  There is no doubt IMO that all highs and lows in the market are proportions of previous ones both in time and price and as such are related mathematically.

The only problems here are:

-which are the signifacant ones?
-We can also end up with too many possibilities and it's up to us as traders to reduce the number of possibilities and stack the probabilities in our favour

Not 100% sure how Miners routines work but I dare say the try to acheive some of the above which can make them quite useful.

I guess an in depth knowledge OF EW can also help a lot here.

Cheers


----------



## Kauri (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Hello Kauri, Miners routines look to be quite impressive in the right hands. There is no doubt IMO that all highs and lows in the market are proportions of previous ones both in time and price and as such are related mathematically.
> 
> The only problems here are:
> 
> ...




 Waves,
          Here is the latest Miner DTP report, is in its raw form, to try to get the significant points I filter out the results to show..i.e. only those points that come in with a score of 50+..
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## juw177 (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

we were down -150 points early morning and this has bounced back already by 10:30 to -125 points. I know technically, this has more to fall, but that quick bounce has got to count for something??


----------



## SevenFX (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



juw177 said:


> we were down -150 points early morning and this has bounced back already by 10:30 to -125 points. I know technically, this has more to fall, but that quick bounce has got to count for something??




IMO it traded sideways at open, found a uptrend, now enteraining a reversal...so no real direction while the buyers n sellers slug it out...

SevenFX


----------



## wavepicker (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Waves,
> Here is the latest Miner DTP report, is in its raw form, to try to get the significant points I filter out the results to show..i.e. only those points that come in with a score of 50+..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Thanks Kauri,

Looks to be quite a powerful software.


----------



## nikki (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

xjo is looking awfully dangerous. it is dancing around 6555 - with asia trading at more than 3% drop and future for the DJIA looking  - i think this afternoon is going to be ugly!!!


----------



## >Apocalypto< (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nikki said:


> xjo is looking awfully dangerous. it is dancing around 6555 - with asia trading at more than 3% drop and future for the DJIA looking  - i think this afternoon is going to be ugly!!!




yep,...... run for the hills!


----------



## Porper (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lachlan6 said:


> My take on the (XAO) is to still take a bullish outlook, UNTIL the wave structure is confirmed as a corrective Wave A,B,C advance. Therefore, this will be confirmed, only when the current wave (4), breaks through the top of the extended Wave (1), being at 6358. The likelihood of this occuring has increased somewhat after Wall Street's horrid Friday session so the retracement tommorow will be important. I am personally looking for support tommorow at 6570, being the typical Wave (4) 38.2% retracement level. If this hold's, who know's, but it is a good level to go off.
> 
> If the market can bounce straight off these levels it will be very bullish, however if it doesnt and continues falling, the 6358 level must be watched like a hawk. The three retracement lines are the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% of the Wave (3) advance.





I agree with Lachlan, we are still bullish.

I differ in that I don't think this recent high can be a wave 3, not only is it shorter in length than wave one (which is fine as long as wave 5 is shorter than wave 3), but it just seems too short in this bull market.It does subdivide nicely into 5 waves so I am thinking that we are subdividing now and if prices do continue up, we will get a long extended wave 3.

I think that we can go down to 6400 and still remain bullish.

We were 2 or 3 days out on the time projection for a reversal, so pretty good.

The next important time projection is 15th November, not sure what this will be, but at the moment leaning towards another impulse higher.


----------



## SevenFX (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> yep,...... run for the hills!




WHAT and leave you to make all the profits... LOL 

Not much range here as triangle tightens, so perhaps a rally mid arvo.


----------



## Awesomandy (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



SevenFX said:


> WHAT and leave you to make all the profits... LOL
> 
> Not much range here as triangle tightens, so perhaps a rally mid arvo.




I agree. It as gapped down rather horribly in the morning, but by 9:20am, the up trend was taking place already. I note that the HSI is doing something similar. It gapped down at open, but now has recovered to be only around 800 points down. Unless there are further bad news, I don't think there are going to be much down side in the next 24 hours. 

(Sorry, no charts. Work internet is very restrictive.)


----------



## CanOz (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Again though, same old story, watch out for the Yen, unless theres not much much left to unwind, its hitting fresh highs against major FX.

Cheers,


----------



## Lachlan6 (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The XAO is sitting at a very interesting point at the moment. Suffice to say the law of alternation is occuring here as the wave (4) can now be considered as a possible zig-zag corrective wave, as opposed to the flat corrective wave (2). In terms of retracement's, it is spot on the 38.2% level from the base of wave (2) and 1.618x the wave a. If the market reverses from here back upward, look for much higher levels. If it continues lower, see my earlier post.


----------



## evwatkins (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just had a bit of a browse, Dow futures are -112


----------



## professor_frink (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



SevenFX said:


> Morning Professor.
> 
> Just few questions on your post..
> 
> ...




Sorry SevenFX, was busy this morning and didn't get a chance to reply. Basically it all boils down to the size of the gap. When they are this big, we will close higher than we open more often than not.

As far as covering the gap, I'd be very surprised if we did that this afternoon, or even tomorrow for that matter.

Cheers


----------



## nizar (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Basically it all boils down to the size of the gap. When they are this big, we will close higher than we open more often than not




I think its important to understand what the open really is.

The level of the XAO at 10:00am when the ASX opens is not really a true indication of the "open" because most of the companies haven't began trading at.

So while 10:00-10:08 often appears to be a trend its not an accurate one.

The actual opening this morning (at 10:08) was about 6550 for the XAO. 
Will we get a white candle. I think so.


----------



## nikki (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



evwatkins said:


> Just had a bit of a browse, Dow futures are -112




I have not seen the Dow futures reverse 112 points so i think we are in for a rought night. However, the Dow futures at this time of the day always reflects what other Asian indices are doing particularly the Nikkei.

Good luck to all.


----------



## Awesomandy (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> but by 9:20am...




I meant 10:20am. I blame it on the Monday.
*smack head on desk*


----------



## professor_frink (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> I think its important to understand what the open really is.
> 
> The level of the XAO at 10:00am when the ASX opens is not really a true indication of the "open" because most of the companies haven't began trading at.
> 
> ...




sorry, just to clarify, I was referring to  the SPI in my previous post


----------



## >Apocalypto< (22 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nikki said:


> I have not seen the Dow futures reverse 112 points so i think we are in for a rought night. However, the Dow futures at this time of the day always reflects what other Asian indices are doing particularly the Nikkei.
> 
> Good luck to all.




the dow futures can be misleading at this time of day.
a true indication of the dow lead is about 10:30pm - 11:30 pm Melbourne time.
even if the dow opens down it still dose not 100% mean a wash out or a red day!

Last hour of Wall st can be a potent one!


----------



## austek (23 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My take on the main index charts are that the DJIA has respected previous resistance , meaning 'resistance  now becomes support' and that the XAO has shown respect for support at 6579.

 To my mind this gives us a reasonable chance that the XAO will run to 7000 before we get our correction, not after.

Then again, I do see my self as a super optimist.  Any thoughts on this from the more experienced chartists ?

austek


----------



## Whiskers (23 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



austek said:


> My take on the main index charts are that the DJIA has respected previous resistance , meaning 'resistance  now becomes support' and that the XAO has shown respect for support at 6579.
> 
> To my mind this gives us a reasonable chance that the XAO will run to 7000 before we get our correction, not after.
> 
> ...




Well, there seems to be a lot more buyers lineing up so far this morning, even in resource and gold.

I guess we'll see if their courage holds, shortly.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (23 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

IG xjo, 4 hour chart.


trend is broken sell off is in force I am watching this rally now to add to my short position.

will be watching to see how deep it can rally, looks good to me but need to see confirmation.

What I want to see is a rally minor breach of the 38.2% fib point then it backs off quickly leaving a tail as the breach that would confirm a normal trend moving down. Safe to think more down side to come.

a higher low will change my mind about my add or holding on to my other position. Or a close above the support followed by more positive action will change my thinking to creeping trend but that can be a set up to a fast trend up or down once it makes it's mind up.

new price bar opened 15 down so that idea of a normal trend situation is looking better.

Good Trading


----------



## SevenFX (23 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Trade_It 

Great to see your analysys & charts, as us apprentice fx traders like to soak up all we can get.

Sure there's a lot of readers, on the side soaking it all up 2..

Thanks Again.
SevenFX


----------



## CanOz (23 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



SevenFX said:


> Trade_It
> 
> Great to see your analysys & charts, as us apprentice fx traders like to soak up all we can get.
> 
> ...




Ditto, love your simple approach TI, always makes me think theres hope for me someday.

Cheers,


----------



## nizar (23 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> IG xjo, 4 hour chart.
> 
> 
> trend is broken sell off is in force I am watching this rally now to add to my short position.
> ...




Nice chart.
From that chart, it definately looks like the trend is broken.
I saw it and thought wtf?? what market is this?
Then I saw the timeframe


----------



## austek (23 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Appreciate the chart & comments TI.  Will wait with interest on how it pans out.  Things are'nt always as clear as they look on the surface.

I offloaded most of my port yesterday and the rest this morning.
Focus now will be on getting in at the right time and with the right stocks, after the expected correction.

austek


----------



## SevenFX (23 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting to note Trade_It your 38.2% also aligns with the 50% as shown below from different points not to mention the now red resistance line it approaches.

SevenFX


----------



## SevenFX (23 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So Trade_It it's fair to say we missed the 38.2 or 50% retracements, but whats the weaker 61.8 (your 50%) looking like as we approach.... which I'm guessing we wouldnt wan't to 'see a tail much past the 61.8 (your 50%) mark.

If so, Is this bounce known as a suckers rally, or dead cat bounce...????

EDIT: Stellar run today, perhaps fueled by the HS up 1000...???

SevenFX


----------



## >Apocalypto< (23 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thank you guys for all your kind words!


Today was a real thrust upwards, resistance is being found on the 50% point, I noticed that support was found on the 23% point.

i will let you in a mistake I made today. on open i watched the price rise then fall rise then fall i assumed it may keel over so i went short! i was knocked out for 25 points.

What i did wrong notice there is a minor trend line on the counter trend, i should have waited for confirmation of that being broken with selling. Another point I have found is that on 4 hour charts there is much more noise then a daily, waiting for patterns and confirmation is a key. I have often ran into a play with out really looking at it objectively from all angles (most importantly waiting for confrimation) only to be chased out. 

Updated chart of the igxjo 4 hour

I have mapped out a couple possibilities, they are not based on anything scientific!

A fail at the 50% is still a good sign for the sell off to continue but as its a four hour chart it anit concrete!

For now I am waiting and watching the counter move to see how it fairs. a lower high form the current bottom is a long play i will take. My stop on my short is a profit stop now so if it's hit it's hit. I am tiring my hardest to not care about taking as much as i can just take something. Cuz after all this is shorting a bull market and a short term uptrend until the market corrects 68.1% of this current up move.

That is wear 4 hour charts will let u down it looks like a full on bear move but on a daily or weekly its just a small bleep see those time frames.

plus I don't have the skill that some members have to pick dates and points. (you know who u are!)

Good trading guys.


----------



## nikki (23 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

fantastic charts trade_it. 

learnt something interesting from the mistake you made - thanks for sharing!


----------



## nikki (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i noticed the DJIA did well overnight but has not managed to get as far as 1372 which i see as resistance to an upward trend developing. assuming by the end of this week we still care about the US 

trade_it, i assume that as long as the DJIA does not trade above 1372 and stay there the kind of reversal you discussed yesterday is still in play.


----------



## JimBob (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It seems to me that the main reason the Dow went down Friday was because some old people lost some money 20 years ago and wanted to have a little bit of a crash for old times sake  Alzheimers should kick in and those oldies will forget about it all until next year.


----------



## Porper (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



JimBob said:


> It seems to me that the main reason the Dow went down Friday was because some old people lost some money 20 years ago




You must be a wipper snapper Jim Bob, people who are just 40 got caught in the 87 crash, so wouldn't exactly call them old.

The anniversary of that may have panicked some into selling, but some would say that the smart money were taking advantage of this and spooked everybody.

It's still unlikely that we will surge to all time highs straight off though, but who knows, this is a very powerful bull market we are in.


----------



## sassa (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



JimBob said:


> It seems to me that the main reason the Dow went down Friday was because some old people lost some money 20 years ago and wanted to have a little bit of a crash for old times sake  Alzheimers should kick in and those oldies will forget about it all until next year.




Don't know how old you are JimBob but apparently not a old as some of us "oldies."
A bit of advice from an "oldie"-you are no certainty to reach that age.


----------



## sassa (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What's causing the sharp selloff in the XJO and Nikkei?


----------



## Nyden (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> What's causing the sharp selloff in the XJO and Nikkei?




Quite. I'm rather uncertain of that myself - portfolio started off all green this morning; now it's all neutral or red 

I hope we see another green day tomorrow in the US markets, or we're really going to suffer :


----------



## sassa (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> I hope we see another green day tomorrow in the US markets, or we're really going to suffer :




Market indicators in the U.S. are not showing a rosy start,but it's early time.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> What's causing the sharp selloff in the XJO and Nikkei?




Sassa I think the weakness on our markets was due to the CPI data that was released today.

maybe another pre election rate rise coming, why i think it was due to this the aud shot up and the euro did nothing against the usd they normally move in tan dame but a rate rise here does nothing for the euro.


----------



## sassa (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Sassa I think the weakness on our markets was due to the CPI data that was released today.
> 
> maybe another pre election rate rise coming, why i think it was due to this the aud shot up and the euro did nothing against the usd they normally move in tan dame but a rate rise here does nothing for the euro.




It took a while to react.The Nikkei has been tumbling faster.


----------



## Nyden (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Sassa I think the weakness on our markets was due to the CPI data that was released today.
> 
> maybe another pre election rate rise coming, why i think it was due to this the aud shot up and the euro did nothing against the usd they normally move in tan dame but a rate rise here does nothing for the euro.




See, I was thinking that as well ; but surely Australian news doesn't effect Australian stocks. We only follow the US! 

Obviously I'm being sarcastic.

But, haven't the prospects of another rate rise already been discussed / thought of? Would have thought the idea of increased inflation wasn't new 

Whatever happened to putting a positive spin on bad news!


----------



## sassa (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> It took a while to react.The Nikkei has been tumbling faster.




Nikkei has fallen because of the strengthened yen affecting exporters.


----------



## rub92me (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whatever is causing it, momentum has definitely turned this afternoon. Agree that a red day in the US could lead to further sell-offs tomorrow. Singapore and Hong Kong indices also falling off a cliff at the moment.


----------



## Nyden (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rub92me said:


> Whatever is causing it, momentum has definitely turned this afternoon. Agree that a red day in the US could lead to further sell-offs tomorrow. Singapore and Hong Kong indices also falling off a cliff at the moment.





Seems as if our short-term fate is once again in the hands of Wallstreet, definitely seems to be happening a lot lately.

I'm glad the market's finally closing now; hopefully a good nights rest (coupled with a hopefully green day in the US ) will restore some faith!


----------



## Kauri (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> What's causing the sharp selloff in the XJO and Nikkei?




  May have something to do with it??  
 Cheers
...........Kauri



> Traders are seeing good selling of the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY by US funds ahead of some event risk in the US later today. The AUD/JPY has slumped below 103.00 after trading up to 103.85 earlier while the AUD/USD has fallen below the pre-CPI level around 0.8995. The market was long the AUD/USD before the Aus CPI and went longer after the number increased speculation that the RBA would hike rates on November 6. Longs are unwinding *due to concerns that the rally on Wall Street this week will come to a thumping halt after Merrill"s releases their quarterly profit, which is expected to be a shocker and US Existing Home Sales reminds everyone how bad the state of the US housing market is.*





> Carry trades remains under pressure as early London traders enter
> the market. *Chatter over Merrill Lynch's Q3 earnings, due for release later
> today is all the rage. Newspaper articles are putting the debt losses anywhere
> between 6-14bln, much higher than Merrill"s previously indicated loss of $5bln.
> ...


----------



## SevenFX (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Kauri.

Can you say where these posts are quoted from...

Thanks
SevenFX


----------



## dhukka (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wednesday was always building as a potential red day in New York with more lousy housing data due, homebuilder earnings and an awful earnings report from  MER expected. 

As for the weakness today in the ASX, some of it may be due to S&P contemplating downgrading a bunch of Australian and New Zealand MBS as well as the higher than expected CPI number. 



> Standard & Poor's may cut the credit ratings of 207 Australian and New Zealand residential mortgage- backed securities as turmoil in the U.S. subprime market spreads to home-loan insurers.
> 
> It's the first time in five years S&P has put securities backed by Australian and New Zealand mortgages on negative ``creditwatch,'' said Kate Thomson, an analyst at S&P in Melbourne, said today. Placing the bonds on Creditwatch negative, which means a rating cut is possible within 90 days, may drive yields on the debt higher.
> 
> ...


----------



## qr2007 (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is the cause of the loss.

Asian exporter shares fell, erasing early gains, after the New York Times reported Merrill Lynch & Co. will probably add $2.5 billion more in writedowns in the wake of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. 

Pls look at the news.

Another RED day tomorrow.

Cheers


----------



## sassa (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



SevenFX said:


> Hi Kauri.
> 
> Can you say where these posts are quoted from...
> 
> ...




One source-
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119319811534969583.html?mod=mktw


----------



## Kauri (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



SevenFX said:


> Hi Kauri.
> 
> Can you say where these posts are quoted from...
> 
> ...




 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## sassa (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



qr2007 said:


> This is the cause of the loss.
> 
> Asian exporter shares fell, erasing early gains, after the New York Times reported Merrill Lynch & Co. will probably add $2.5 billion more in writedowns in the wake of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis.
> 
> ...




Could this have an affect also.These comments come from a contributor to MarketWatch.
(1)The Libor rate has jumped 64 basis points.This rate is now roughly the level that set off the credit crisis that prompted a liquidity rescue in August.
(2)The iTraxx Crossover Index that measures spreads on corporate bonds has jumped a 100 basis points since last week.Peter Berezin,a strategist at Goldman Sach,said investors have been shaken by last week's drop in the home builders' sentiment and by fresh falls in the ABX index,which is 80% below par,for sub prime debt.Sell offs in the ABX and housing related credit have to be well respected as they point to HUGE losses that have yet to surface.
We are about to possibly see one of many today.


----------



## qr2007 (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There are many articles about it but here is one of them

"Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Asian shares fell, erasing early gains, after the New York Times reported Merrill Lynch & Co. will probably add $2.5 billion more in writedowns in the wake of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=alpw2G1EgRwo&refer=stocks

Cheers.


----------



## trendsta (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

US really havent got their house in order..

All these  raw materials denominated in USD, are going up (soft commodities, metals, precious metals, oil etc etc). Sooner or later this is going to impact corporate earnings.. US corporations are in no place to pass on those costs to consumers, who are already suffering from higher credit and housing downturn, together with potentially worsening job market ... Add to that US is a net importer and China the net exporter.. China is also going to get affected by increasing costs, due to its currency partially pegged to USD, and everything being in USD making them more expensive ... This will result in increased import prices for US consumers... Not looking good at all.. The lowering of rates is going to strangle the US, although at a later time than not intervening.. 

If USD was not the reserve currency it would be suffering the fate of Argentina or if it kept printing money Zimbabwe..


----------



## dhukka (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



qr2007 said:


> This is the cause of the loss.
> 
> Asian exporter shares fell, erasing early gains, after the New York Times reported Merrill Lynch & Co. will probably add $2.5 billion more in writedowns in the wake of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis.
> 
> ...




gr,

I hope you don't believe everything you read in the news just because Bloomberg or CNN reported it. Financial commentators often invent reasons to explain why markets rise and fall. These reasons often appeal to the rational mind as we try to make sense of an irrational mechanism such as the stockmarket.  

I'm not saying the the story you quoted is wrong, but don't be so quick to believe whatever the press presents as truth.


----------



## qr2007 (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> gr,
> 
> I hope you don't believe everything you read in the news just because Bloomberg or CNN reported it. Financial commentators often invent reasons to explain why markets rise and fall. These reasons often appeal to the rational mind as we try to make sense of an irrational mechanism such as the stockmarket.
> 
> I'm not saying the the story you quoted is wrong, but don't be so quick to believe whatever the press presents as truth.




Thank you
I will keep it in my mind.


----------



## sassa (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trendsta said:


> China is also going to get affected by increasing costs, due to its currency partially pegged to USD, and everything being in USD making them more expensive




Interesting what Warren Buffett said about Chinese stocks today-

  Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett said investors should be ``cautious'' about China's stocks after the country's benchmark index more than doubled this year. 

``We never buy stocks when we see prices soaring,'' Buffett said today in Dalian, northeastern China, where he's visiting a subsidiary of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. ``We buy stocks because we're confident of the company's growth. People should be cautious when they see prices rising.''

It reminded me of an old hotel broker friend of mine."If you're going to buy a hotel,don't buy one that is a succes.Get one that needs building up.You buy it cheap and enjoy the windfall when you sell it."


----------



## trendsta (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> Interesting what Warren Buffett said about Chinese stocks today-
> 
> Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett said investors should be ``cautious'' about China's stocks after the country's benchmark index more than doubled this year.
> 
> ...




Im not surprised.. Buffet invested in petrochina way back, made his money, and is out .. If recent rumors are true he is buying into Brazil .. 

The current events are only leading to devaluation of currency.. maybe its a political play to see who backs off first US or China .. US has always wanted China to unpeg its currency.. various negotiations didnt work, maybe this little trick will ?? 

This little ploy is creating massive imbalances and bubbles... something / anything can trigger it off ..


----------



## CanOz (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trendsta said:


> The current events are only leading to devaluation of currency.. maybe its a political play to see who backs off first US or China .. US has always wanted China to unpeg its currency.. various negotiations didnt work, maybe this little trick will ??
> 
> ..




What devaluation are you referring to, the USD?

Cheers,


----------



## trendsta (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> What devaluation are you referring to, the USD?
> 
> Cheers,




yup the USD... 
Its not so much all these things are rising, its more that USD is falling .. If the store of value is falling, and losing its base value, then its not performing the function for which it was invented (maybe im being too drastic here) ... 

point being there is only so much value it can lose before people lose confidence in it .. after all its only a piece of paper with george washingtons picture.. its only saving grace is that over the many decades the rest of the world has decided to use it as its reserve currency. 

overall a rising inflation (despite the "official US CPI numbers) and slowing economy does not bode well ..


----------



## roland (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> What devaluation are you referring to, the USD?
> 
> Cheers,




I have a feeling that the emerging world benchmark will be based on the Euro, the US is losing it's appeal as current benchmark due to percieved lack of physical liquid security for the greenback


----------



## dhukka (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

MER results out.  Writedowns of *$7.9* billion, remember they flagged writedowns of only $5.0 billion a few weeks ago. Loss per share of *-$2.85 *against analyst expectations of a loss of *-$0.45*. It's going to ugly for MER today .


----------



## sassa (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> MER results out.  Writedowns of *$7.9* billion, remember they flagged writedowns of only $5.0 billion a few weeks ago. Loss per share of *-$2.85 *against analyst expectations of a loss of *-$0.45*. It's going to ugly for MER today .




And not only MER.


----------



## trendsta (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> And not only MER.




who else??


----------



## sassa (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trendsta said:


> who else??




The other financials.Countrywide could be significant as it is expected to report a $1B-$2B loss on Friday for the Quarter.


----------



## Kauri (24 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> after news reports that Merrill Lynch is going to release another multi-billion revision in the value of its sub-prime portfolio when it releases results this AM. When the results were released the actual write down of $7.9bn from the original $4.5bn exceeded expectations but not fears ($10bn), and earnings in ongoing operations did better than expected, the actual EPS loss was lower than expected. *This has left equity markets in slightly better shape heading into the US session.*




  I guess it's all down to the existing home sales in a couple of hours now..
 Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## SevenFX (25 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> It reminded me of an old hotel broker friend of mine."If you're going to buy a hotel,don't buy one that is a succes.*Get one that needs building up.You buy it cheap and enjoy the windfall when you sell it.*"




As long as the research for it being cheap, is based on bad management, etc, etc, hence not bad positioning...

The Old "Worst House in the best Street..." Theory (PPP) as you can always change the house but you can't change the street (can you)

SevenFX


----------



## nizar (25 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nice Recovery on the DOW.
Looks like a reversal to me.


----------



## qr2007 (25 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Asian financial stocks may fall on Thursday after Mizuho Financial Group booked losses related to U.S. subprime mortgages, and shares of Merrill Lynch & Co. dropped to a two-year low in Wednesday's U.S. trading.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...813-40FD-43B7-85AA-8A1CE1695CD9}&siteid=yhoof

U.S. "undoubtedly in recession": Jim Rogers

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071024/investment_rogers.html?.v=3

Any comments ????? Pls....


----------



## Whiskers (25 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What a hairy start today! Down, up, down up... 

One gets the feeling that once the market decides which way to go, it want's to get there fast.


----------



## SevenFX (25 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> What a hairy start today! Down, up, down up...
> 
> One gets the feeling that once the market decides which way to go, it want's to get there fast.




Yes choppy start again...

It seems to be bouncing between a 50 & 61.8% retracements of yesterdays highs lows and having tested the 61.8% a retest may help to set its direction.

Though the overall retracement from the August lows doesn't seems to be showing much weakness atm.

EDIT: TIS also swinging pendilium like either side of 6647 being todays daily pivot.

SevenFX


----------



## dj_420 (25 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Nice Recovery on the DOW.
> Looks like a reversal to me.




Rumour is FED is going to open the rate window a little more.

I was actually looking to go long on the Dow last night, it got too late however with uni assignments due this morning and I missed the big reversal


----------



## nizar (25 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dj_420 said:


> Rumour is FED is going to open the rate window a little more.
> 
> I was actually looking to go long on the Dow last night, it got too late however with uni assignments due this morning and I missed the big reversal




You still got assignments due?
Thats unlucky, just exams for me (which is not much better), next week!  

You would've made good money on that long  even if it was just a few contracts.


----------



## sassa (25 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Nice Recovery on the DOW.
> Looks like a reversal to me.




Everybody shortenin',shortenin',shortenin'.(My apologies to the songwriter)


----------



## Captain_Chaza (25 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Talk about Rotten Luck 

Here we go Between a Rock and a Hard Place again


----------



## dj_420 (25 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> You still got assignments due?
> Thats unlucky, just exams for me (which is not much better), next week!
> 
> You would've made good money on that long  even if it was just a few contracts.




Lol, yeah last assignments were done today, still exams to go.

Only learning indices and futures trading at the moment. I like the short term aspect at the moment considering how the rest of the actual markets look.


----------



## Whiskers (25 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Captain_Chaza said:


> Talk about Rotten Luck
> 
> Here we go Between a Rock and a Hard Place again




Yeah, that's the feeling I was getting late this morning, I'm not much into charting the indicies yet, but I'm starting to get the drift a bit from what all you regular guys and gals are posting.


----------



## SevenFX (26 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Captain_Chaza said:


> Talk about Rotten Luck
> 
> Here we go Between a Rock and a Hard Place again




You could always Trade the range CC, and IMO if it breaks the 6700 mark there could be more upside give it gets through S2 at 6732

Or the downside to this channel could see us around the 6400-6300 mark

SevenFX


----------



## SevenFX (26 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Insto's and Traders must be havin a real long Lunch this FRIDAY...:


----------



## Whiskers (26 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well... we are holding above 6700, the Hang Seng has hit new highs and the Nikki is kicking on. 

Looking Good or about to burst a bubble. 



> 'Expectations for rate cuts in the US is the major driver that's pushing the Hong Kong market higher,' said Castor Pang, strategist at Sun Hung Kai Financial.
> 
> At 10:35 am (0235 GMT), the Hang Seng Index was up 310.80 points or 1 percent at 30,160.11, after hitting an all-time high of 30,320.06.
> http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/10/25/afx4265339.html


----------



## SevenFX (26 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Well... we are holding above 6700, the Hang Seng has hit new highs and the Nikki is kicking on.
> 
> Looking Good or about to burst a bubble.




Hi Whiskers.

I'm looking for 6705-6 to see which way the break will be, or push further on to 6733 where R2 will be tested.

Yes... HS seems stong on highs, but not a big day there compared to recent days...

SevenFX


----------



## Nick Radge (27 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Post #1628.  The Elliott Wave count suggested two scenarios based around the 6550 level. Because its rejected, and in light of increased strength on the US indices,  the recent dip was a wave-c and therefore -iv low. In turn the larger trend remains in place, for the moment at least, and that we could still be on target for an impulsive pattern off the August lows and not corrective. If that is the case then 7000 _minimum_ is probable.  

This to me is the beauty of Elliott Wave. Validate or invalidate the patterns act accordingly. 

As per post #1638, I remain 100% long stocks with emphasis on Gold. There is an 89% chance Gold will have a positive November. November is also a very strong month for stocks as the Santa Claus rally gets up steam.


_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Kauri (30 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I guess that would be akin to poking a Bear with a sharp stick. :sword: 



> Sydney, October 30: Writing in today"s WSJ noted Fed watcher Greg Ip states that while the market is convinced a 25 BP cut in rates by the Fed tomorrow is a near- certainty and 50 BPS is a possibility, the Fed is unlikely to give 50 BPS any serious consideration and the debate will be *whether to ease 25 BPS or deliver no cut at all*. Ip wrote on the weekend that the Fed was likely to cut 25 BPS in part not to disappoint the markets and in part to take out insurance in case their not so pessimistic view of the US economy is out of sync.
> In this article Ip appears to be more 50/50 saying that the Fed can mitigate potential market disappointment with no cut by issuing a statement opening the door to a future cut. Ip gives further justification for the "No-change " option by saying: "The case for remaining on hold comes down to the economic forecast. While housing data has deteriorated further, there is little sign so far that it has spilled over to the broader economy. Fed officials don't appear to have significantly altered their forecast of a return to moderate growth next year. Helped by last month's rate cut, many market interest rates have come down. Stocks have recovered from their swoon two weeks ago. While inflation concerns have receded, they haven't disappeared, especially given the dollar"s drop."


----------



## Whiskers (30 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> I guess that would be akin to poking a Bear with a sharp stick. :sword:



 

Aah now I get it.  

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if the fed decided not to cut and appease the market by saying they will revisit it next meeting.

I guess that will also bring some cash back to the US that has been looking for higher interest return overseas or at least slow the flow to help liquidity in the US. It would stabalise the $US and bring some stability to the markets for awhile. 



> *Fed Won't Cut Again Unless Data Worsen*
> By John M. Berry
> Oct. 15 (Bloomberg)
> 
> ...






> *Wall Street Wants 50, Fed May Give Zip for Now*
> By John M. Berry
> Oct. 24 (Bloomberg)
> 
> ...


----------



## nizar (30 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think 25bp is factored in already.

Anything except 50bp would get a sell off IMO.

Or maybe 25bp and some nice wording for the comments we may still go okay.


----------



## Gurgler (30 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Aah now I get it.
> 
> Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if the fed decided not to cut and appease the market by saying they will revisit it next meeting.
> 
> I guess that will also bring some cash back to the US that has been looking for higher interest return overseas or at least slow the flow to help liquidity in the US. It would stabalise the $US and bring some stability to the markets for awhile.




Also consider this viewpoint from The Economist:

*Market.view 

Is Merrill the tip of the iceberg?
Oct 28th 2007
From Economist.com

If so, who is the Titanic?

IS THERE such a thing as panicky resilience? That might be the best way to describe the mood in stockmarkets. The S&P 500 index ended this week up a steely 2.6%. Yet nervousness is everywhere, with the flimsiest of rumours sending share prices sky-rocketing or lurching. Markets leapt on Wednesday after someone whispered that the Federal Reserve was about to announce an emergency rate cut. It was nonsense. The next day AIG, the world’s largest insurer, tumbled by 8%, before recovering, on unsubstantiated fears that it would suffer a whopping loss on its $33 billion of subprime mortgage-related assets. 

While some investors have clearly been getting carried away, the crisis in credit markets is far from over””and may be about to get worse. One depressing indication of this was a vast, $8.4 billion writedown this week by Merrill Lynch, an investment bank.

 The most striking (and overlooked) aspect of this was that it involved mostly securities that only a few months ago had been considered platinum-plated: collateralised-debt obligations (CDOs), or tranched pools of mortgage-backed securities, that were not only rated triple-A, the highest level, but had also received extra credit enhancement, making them “super senior”. Until recently it was assumed that such well-protected paper could not lose its value. No longer. Worryingly, hundreds of banks, insurers and hedge funds around the world hold such securities. Fooled by false alchemy, they face a terrible reckoning.  

Woefully slow at first to act, rating agencies are now falling over each other to downgrade these securities. This week Moody’s marked down a big batch of CDOs, some of them highly rated. This caused another plunge in the ABX indices, which are used to bet on subprime-backed bonds. One index of AAA-rated securities fell to just over 80 cents on the dollar. Those reflecting poorer-quality paper languish below 20 cents. *


It will be very interesting to see which way the Fed jumps - any wagers?

Source: http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/marketview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10048962


----------



## Bush Trader (30 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whilst we’re on the discussion of rate cuts and their effects on US markets, lets all turn our eyes closer to home in the same context.  OK we all know that the US FED are in a damned if they do damned if they don’t type of predicament.  Cut the rates, save the loans, appease the investors, and deflate the currency, all very inflationary.  Don’t cut the rates, potential market reaction, potential housing market collapse, fall in equity, adding more gearing to the already highly geared, save the currency temporarily, less inflationary, “the recession we had to have” rhetoric.

Australia.  US cut rates, currency rises, we increase interest rates, and currency rises further.  Then exporters profit profits slump - BHP for example loses aprox $60 million for every cent the Aus$ rises against the US. 

Who is at the biggest risk of a falling US $ and a rising Aus$ even if the China and India storey remains intact?  What about interest rate effect on our own financial sector?  What about our already crippled agricultural sector, which will have it’s own internal inflationary effects whilst experiencing falling export incomes and a rapidly declining terms of trade? What percentage of the XAO does this effect? Or our commodity exporters could start being paid in RMB and Rupees. That will make the brokers earn their keep.


I’m scared; tell me I needn’t be (don’t forget I earn my money from agriculture and I’ve seen the pain of a rising currency!)


Cheers


BT


----------



## dhukka (30 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bush Trader said:


> Whilst we’re on the discussion of rate cuts and their effects on US markets, lets all turn our eyes closer to home in the same context.  OK we all know that the US FED are in a damned if they do damned if they don’t type of predicament.  Cut the rates, save the loans, appease the investors, and deflate the currency, all very inflationary.  Don’t cut the rates, potential market reaction, potential housing market collapse, fall in equity, adding more gearing to the already highly geared, save the currency temporarily, less inflationary, “the recession we had to have” rhetoric.




Firstly the Fed cutting interest rates will NOT save loans, the damage has been done on that front. Nor will it prevent a housing market collapse - that is already in process and cannot be stopped by anything the Fed does. The Fed is largely irrelevant, except as you acknowledge, for it's effect on sentiment.


----------



## Whiskers (31 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well the US Consumer Confidence number is down. The question is whether that is actually a bad thing from the fed's perspective. Will the fed see a slight fall in consumer confidence as enough of an anti-inflationary sign and not cut rates for fear that if they over cut rates, the economy might turn too quickly and they might have to increase rates again relatively soon afterwards as in 1998?



> *The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Declines Again*
> October 30, 2007
> 
> The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which has been declining since August, fell further in October. The Index now stands at 95.6 (1985=100), down from 99.5 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased to 118.8 from 121.2 in September. The Expectations Index declined to 80.1 from 85.0.
> ...


----------



## Bush Trader (31 October 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Firstly the Fed cutting interest rates will NOT save loans, the damage has been done on that front. Nor will it prevent a housing market collapse - that is already in process and cannot be stopped by anything the Fed does. The Fed is largely irrelevant, except as you acknowledge, for it's effect on sentiment.




There are still more loans tittering on the edge that have not folded.  I am not saying that cutting rates can repair damage already done, however it could reduce further blood letting in the sector.  Investor’s perception of the cut (or no cut) will have the biggest impact on markets, whether it is Stocks, bonds, currency or real-estate.


Cheers


BT


----------



## nizar (1 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Blue skies AND A HALF i think for today.
Gold, oil, s&p, DOW.


----------



## sassa (1 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Blue skies AND A HALF i think for today.
> Gold, oil, s&p, DOW.




What gives with our market?1.30p.m. and only 50 points up.One would have thought we would be over the 1% mark.Perhaps 6850 may be achieved by day's end.It looks like 7000 is out of the picture for a while.


----------



## Temjin (1 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> What gives with our market?1.30p.m. and only 50 points up.One would have thought we would be over the 1% mark.Perhaps 6850 may be achieved by day's end.It looks like 7000 is out of the picture for a while.




As someone has said already, the market has already factored in a 25 bps cut. Volatility will only occur on no cut or 50bps cut. No real surprise move this time. Just another confirmation that the Feb will sacrifice their dollars and try to save their houses. 

Got gold anyone?  (getting fond of this line now)


----------



## sassa (1 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> As someone has said already, the market has already factored in a 25 bps cut. Volatility will only occur on no cut or 50bps cut. No real surprise move this time. Just another confirmation that the Feb will sacrifice their dollars and try to save their houses.
> 
> Got gold anyone?  (getting fond of this line now)




With the cut factored in,why aren't we seeing sideways movement?I still wonder if our market would be where it is if there hadn't been a sub prime problem and hence no rate cuts to give the market what I term an _artificial boost._


----------



## Whiskers (1 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> With the cut factored in,why aren't we seeing sideways movement?I still wonder if our market would be where it is if there hadn't been a sub prime problem and hence no rate cuts to give the market what I term an _artificial boost._




Sassa, I'm inclined to think our market may have been even stronger, but for the subprime problem. I think gold was going up anyway and our dollar would not be so strong against the $US resulting in stronger profits for our exporters.

I note the fed made a fairly strong statement not to expect any more rate cuts. I wouldn't have been surprised if they had decided not to cut, because there were conflicting signals out there in the US economy.

I think clearly our biggest problem is the strength of the $A relative to commodity prices. It may be that the $ exchange rate will not change significantly for awhile, but we may get some benifit from cheaper imports and production costs over time.

I'll bet the US is exploiting some advantage of the realignment of currencies. It remains to be seen how quickly Aus can exploit some advantage from the current situation.


----------



## sassa (2 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So what happens today?The market has regained some ground from its early lows.Will the pattern be the same as the Dow-up and down in small troughs before a bigger selloff before the end of trade?Or will our market show that it is not really affected by the troubles in America as a lot of analysts and economists put it,and at the end the day have only a moderate loss?


----------



## Gurgler (2 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> So what happens today?The market has regained some ground from its early lows.Will the pattern be the same as the Dow-up and down in small troughs before a bigger selloff before the end of trade?Or will our market show that it is not really affected by the troubles in America as a lot of analysts and economists put it,and at the end the day have only a moderate loss?




The latter, I feel. The BBC/CNN market analysis we hear in Asia says that Aust. is dancing to a different drum economically. Chinese manufacturing is up, see attached:

*Chinese Manufacturing Sector Running Smokin' Hot
FN Arena News - November 01 2007 

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck


They must have been gazing with their mouth open, the economists at CLSA. Only two months ago things seemed so clear: the global economy was slowing down and so would Chinese exports. With a central bank on a continuous tightening path surely the only way forward was for a gradually slowing in overall activity?


Imagine the faces all around when the data for October were being assessed… CLSA’s China Purchasing Manager’s Index surged to its highest level in 31 months in October.


Along with it, input inflation showed up at its highest level in sixteen months, while supplier lead times experienced their sharpest increase in 37 months.


CLSA economist Eric Fishwick points out the survey revealed signs of stresses emerging in the supply chain with a reported lack of capacity in transport and some supply side bottlenecks. Output prices increased in October, but this is more a response to spiralling input prices than any margin enhancement, he believes.


The latest data suggest Chinese manufacturing production rose for a twenty-third successive month in October. Furthermore, CLSA highlights, the rate of expansion quickened to the fastest pace since April 2004. Output was driven higher by a further strong rise in incoming new orders, with the latest increase only marginally weaker than September’s two-and-a-half year high. CLSA believes the main strength of demand again came from the domestic market, as growth of new export orders remained relatively modest.


Also, the economists believe a portion of the latest rise in new business was met through the depletion of warehouse stocks of finished goods, which fell for the seventh month running in October, and at a solid pace.


Surely, CLSA’s latest assessments must be like music in the ears of those experts who believe a slow down in the US economy does not necessarily spell trouble for China.


CLSA’s PMI surged to 55.2 in October, up from 55.0 in September.*


----------



## sassa (2 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gurgler said:


> The latter, I feel. The BBC/CNN market analysis we hear in Asia says that Aust. is dancing to a different drum economically. Chinese manufacturing is up, see attached:
> 
> *Chinese Manufacturing Sector Running Smokin' Hot
> FN Arena News - November 01 2007
> ...




I note there is a disclaimer in the report in the second last paragraph.It has particular overtones of MarketWatch,Bloomberg,Wallstreet and Fed reports.If a slowdown in the largest consumer of all does not necessarily spell trouble for China,then it will spell the next-a loss of markets.Not only the U.S.but those countries connected to the same problem(aka,those in Europe).The IMF has issued a warning on the slowing of global growth.


----------



## GreatPig (3 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO currently moving into a rising wedge. The yellow line is the top of the channel it's been in, and always corrected from, since early 2003.

Will it correct from there again, or will the new rising trend line hold for a channel breakout? It's also showing a bit of bearish RSI divergence though.

At least it looks reasonably positive for Monday, along with the US holding last night.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Sean K (5 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hmmm, I was expecting a positive day today.... 

MACD has been looking dodgy for a bit. 



> 1053 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 down 1.1% at 6620.9 on fears of slide on Wall Street, losses accelerating after Citigroup confirmed additional US$8 billion-US$11 billion writedowns. Break of support at 6648.4 targets 6542.9. Resources initially rose after commodity price gains, but BHP now leading market down with 2.0% fall. Rio up 0.7%, but well off its high. Woodside near flat as surging crude oil might hurt economic growth. Newcrest up 1.2% after testing record high on gold price surge. CBA leading banks down with 1.7% fall, with expected RBA tightening undermining yield attraction. Macquarie Group down 3.5%, Babcock & Brown down 3.6% as U.S. peers should suffer again tonight. Nufarm resumes trade at 0025 GMT after confirming bid from CemChina-Blackstone consortium. (DWR)


----------



## Kauri (5 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Don't know if it means much but my Budgie just pointed out that the XJO/XAO spread is widening again... currently out to 35-40 points..    the big end of town stealthily moving again...   
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## moses (5 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO going into free fall?


----------



## Awesomandy (5 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moses said:


> XAO going into free fall?




The support ~6600 seems to be holding.


----------



## sassa (5 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> The support ~6600 seems to be holding.




But will it support after the market in America has a possible large downer tonight?


----------



## Gurgler (5 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> But will it support after the market in America has a possible large downer tonight?





This is indeed the question - together with the extent (if any) that the Oz market has already factored in the concern. Essentially, are we acting in a proactive rather than reactive mode?

We will see.


----------



## sassa (5 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A prediction or not?Scary,if it turns out to be true.

Crash is coming, warns top investor," write Peter Weekes and Jason Dowling in The Age. The gentlemen have spoken with Leo de Bever, the chief investment officer of the Victorian Funds Management corporation. He thinks that when things can't get any better, they don't. 

--"The man responsible for investing AU$41 billion of the State's money has warned mum-and-dad investors to prepare for a massive sharemarket crash. He says a dramatic downturn is inevitable as the rapid rate of investment is unsustainable, and the repercussions of the US$300 billion subprime lending crisis in the US are yet to be felt fully."


----------



## sassa (7 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The indicators presage a downward trend for the opening of the American markets tonight.The Spi 200 is down 72 points at this time.Unless the
markets in America respond like they did last night,it looks like today's gains in the ASX might be turned around.


----------



## godzillaismad (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All sorts of negative news coming out of US today! How does a $39 billion write-off by GM sound? 53% profit shortfalls and a swag of negative news articles, would have spooked some investors. The current correction is just the beginning...


----------



## Kauri (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> *Nov.5*..Don't know if it means much but my Budgie just pointed out that the XJO/XAO spread is widening again... currently out to 35-40 points..  the big end of town stealthily moving again...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




 Surprising how often something so simple gives a timely warning??? ( the Budgie that is..   ) Gap out to 44 odd now.. 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Sean K (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Surprising how often something so simple gives a timely warning??? ( the Budgie that is..   ) Gap out to 44 odd now..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



I must send the budgie a tip. S/he's hedging my position right now. 

Kauri, got an address for me to send some seed or some other budgie paraphernalia?


----------



## sam76 (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

0446 GMT [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 down 2.7% at 6513.3 after hitting 6488.5 as Asian markets fall by similar amount. DJIA futures down 0.6%, S&P 500 futures down 0.8% as traders expect Wall Street to plunge in reaction to Morgan Stanley's write downs and weak results from AIG and Cisco after the close of regular U.S. trading. But Wall Street usually doesn't close down anywhere near as much as expected when U.S. stock index futures predict sharp falls. And Bernanke gives congressional testimony tonight so he could well smooth things over. Also, U.S. stocks might benefit from a view that all the bad news might be out for the short term. But longs taken after Citigroup's writedowns last week are under water now, so the stakes are increasing. Traders fear that if enough bad news is thrown at the U.S. market it could go into a sustained slide. (DWR)


----------



## SevenFX (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> Traders fear that if enough bad news is thrown at the U.S. market it could go into a sustained slide. (DWR)




This is why the market is so choppy, given many don't know which position will hold...??? and which to fold.

I'm guessing that noone (other than a minority of shorts) is goona want that to happen, and so the bad news seems to keep trickling out, to avoid the 07 avalanche(???)

SevenFX


----------



## Bush Trader (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This was published a few days ago, it may be of interest to those who hav't seen it.

Cheers


BT



*Lack Of Value? Or Too Many Investors Chasing The Same Ideas?

FN Arena News - November 08 2007 

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena*

One does not need advanced software packages or many years of first hand experience around the traps to see that the Australian share market is struggling to push the S&P/ASX200 index beyond 6700.

Simply draw a chart of Australia's major shares index over the past few weeks and you instantly see the market has tried four times to push the index beyond 6700 and every time the attempt failed and shares rapidly retreated. Depending on how the market will fare over the next few sessions, we may now be experiencing a fifth attempt since mid-October.
To some market observers there is no secret why the market is finding it difficult to move higher from here: it's a valuation issue. The idea that the Australian share market is currently at fair value, if not slightly overvalued, was confirmed by a survey by two journalists of the Australian Financial Review on Monday.

Eleven out of eighteen stockbrokers and other financial institutions that provided their projections for the S&P/ASX200 index forecast the index would be at its current level, or lower, in three months from now. Six from these experts believe the index won't be higher in six months either.

The two most positive projections came from AMP and Commonwealth Bank signaling the index could be at 7000 by January and by 7200-7250 at the end of April next year. This implies further maximum upside potential of circa 5 to 8% on a three to six months horizon, dividend payouts not included.
Other indicators seem to point to a similar conclusion. Since early September the balance between recommendation upgrades and downgrades for individual stocks has swung in favour of more downgrades and the pattern has remained in place for ten weeks now. The past seven days alone saw 43 downgrades versus 20 upgrades.

Most of these downgrades are being issued because share prices are believed to have run too far ahead of their underlying valuation. Think Harvey Norman (HVN), or JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), or the Australian Stock Exchange ((ASX)). Even BHP Billiton ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) received some downgrades recently due to short term valuation issues.

My personal favourite indicator is the gap between price targets for the major banks and their share prices. History shows that whenever share prices for the major banks exceed brokers' price targets they are poised for a pull back - this often means the rest of the market is due for a retreat as well.

Four weeks ago I reported share prices for the likes of Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), Westpac ((WBC)) and St George ((SGB)) were trading above average twelve month price targets while National ((NAB)) and ANZ ((ANZ)) were each staring at a small gap only. Less than a week later the market retreated.
I also wrote that the most logical way to create further upside was for the banks to positively surprise with their FY07 results. ANZ failed in its attempt, but Westpac and St George did exactly that while management at CommBank reiterated its operational targets. As a result securities analysts raised their forecasts, and price targets, for most of the banks. (National Australia Bank reports this Friday).

However, as the higher price targets were met by rising share prices, the major banks landed exactly in the same position again by mid last week. All it took was for further subprime/CDO wobbles to resurface in the US and share prices in Australia, including the banks, pulled swiftly back from new record highs.

So where are we now? With the exception of ANZ (recent disappointment) all major banks are again trading near their average price targets. This again would suggest the Australian share market is poised for another confrontation with its valuation limits, and soon.

The difference with four weeks ago, however, is there's no short term prospects left for further increases to price targets. With the exception of National Australia Bank (FY07 report on Friday) all major banks have now reported, either through FY07 results or at the annual shareholders meeting in the case of CommBank - so whereto from here?

Some market experts have argued the next upside should come from increasing price/earnings (P/E) multiples. The argument is that as confidence in China's economic resilience grows so will the market's confidence in the sustainability of demand for energy and resources. As the rest of the world views Australia as a lower-risk leverage opportunity into this Asian growth story, the market as a whole is likely to be re-valued, hence the higher PE ratios, which translates into higher share prices and an index that can confidently move beyond 7000 and higher.

But maybe the Australian share market doesn't need such an "act of investor mania".

It's not just the banks who saw their price targets move higher over the past four weeks. The same applies to many other companies, such as Telstra ((TLS)) for instance. A detailed analysis of current valuations and share price targets for all 231 individual stocks in the FNArena database that are at least covered by five out of ten experts we monitor has revealed that current average price targets for exactly 50% of these stocks suggest further upside potential of at least 8% (dividends not included).

This group (representing about half of the S&P/ASX200 index) comprises of many financial stocks -from HFA Holdings ((HFA)) to Mortgage Choice ((MOC)) to Austbrokers ((AUB))- and many financial service providers -from Computershare ((CPU)) to Henderson Group ((HGI)) to Tower Australia ((TAL)).

In addition, this group also contains many exporters whose earnings have been hit by the strong Australian dollar, such as Billabong ((BBG)) and ResMed ((RMD)), but also remarkably many energy and base metals companies such as ROC Oil ((ROC)), Zinifex ((ZFX)) and even Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.

So maybe the real question is not whether Australian shares are nearing full valuations, but whether investors aren't chasing the same group of stocks - and thus a narrower scope for returns while ignoring opportunities elsewhere?
Also, the fact that BHP and Rio Tinto are still in the cheaper half of the market (determined by the difference between share prices and average price targets) suggests we're far off from a resources mania still.


----------



## IFocus (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Surprising how often something so simple gives a timely warning??? ( the Budgie that is..   ) Gap out to 44 odd now..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Kauri do you think your Budgie could give some lessons / mentoring to my Galah George?

Focus


----------



## sassa (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For anybody interested,this link gives market changes every minute worldwide.

http://stock.rbc.ru/demo/index.0/intraday/index.eng.shtml?sort=LAST_CHANGE_PERCENT&dir=ASC


----------



## sassa (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The SPI 200 has certainly found some bounce tonight.Up 66 points at 10.27.


----------



## stoxclimber (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's because of the RIO news no doubt


----------



## sassa (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoxclimber said:


> It's because of the RIO news no doubt




Bloombergs has this article.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPuWfN5U4lT0&refer=home


----------



## sassa (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> The SPI 200 has certainly found some bounce tonight.Up 66 points at 10.27.




And has further increased 33 points in the last 10 minutes.Something has given it impetus.


----------



## vishalt (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

unbelievable


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> unbelievable




Why?


----------



## sassa (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoxclimber said:


> It's because of the RIO news no doubt




This is part of an article at The Times.

"In its letter, BHP Billiton sought to pursue discussions with Rio Tinto regarding its proposal. Rio Tinto rejected the proposal." 

The company added: "BHP Billiton has again written to Rio Tinto and intends to continue to seek an opportunity to meet and discuss its proposal with Rio Tinto. 

"There can be no assurance that any transaction or offer will result from BHP Billiton's proposal."
So we again have the market reacting to(for want of a better word)rumour.


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

While Rio rallies 25% in London and the mining sector is up 10% this could have a big flow on effect. Ever since the August melt down takeover’s have gone very quiet as supposedly credit has dried up. I believe the offer was a script one but still the news of a big aggressive take over will warm many a traders heart. If they think they can get credit of 160 billion then parts of the world economy are still very much looking at a continual bull market. 

Just what Santa’s little helpers need to kick off a nice Silly season rally.


----------



## sassa (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> And has further increased 33 points in the last 10 minutes.Something has given it impetus.




Add another 35 in the last 15 minutes.The SPI 200 now stands at 134.


----------



## Awesomandy (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ever since August, I find that the market has been very sensitive to any news, and the general trend is massive over-reaction. I'm getting the impression that whenever there's a piece of bad news or 2, everyone thinks the world is going to be over, but if there's some other good rumours, all the money flows back in to give the market a kick along. Times such as now are certainly pretty weird.


----------



## sassa (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> Ever since August, I find that the market has been very sensitive to any news, and the general trend is massive over-reaction. I'm getting the impression that whenever there's a piece of bad news or 2, everyone thinks the world is going to be over, but if there's some other good rumours, all the money flows back in to give the market a kick along. Times such as now are certainly pretty weird.




How true.This remark regarding the BHP-Rio Tinto possible merger is spot on-

"There can be no assurance that any transaction or offer will result from BHP Billiton's proposal."


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> Ever since August, I find that the market has been very sensitive to any news, and the general trend is massive over-reaction. I'm getting the impression that whenever there's a piece of bad news or 2, everyone thinks the world is going to be over, but if there's some other good rumours, all the money flows back in to give the market a kick along. Times such as now are certainly pretty weird.




Yep agree. That just goes to show how reacting to news articles and yesterday's moves is a recipe to get cut to bits. You need to be trading in anticipation of the next move and fading this mess.


----------



## eMark (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> Add another 35 in the last 15 minutes.The SPI 200 now stands at 134.




Where do you get your up to the minute SPI 200 info from?

Thanks

eMark


----------



## M34N (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



eMark said:


> Where do you get your up to the minute SPI 200 info from?
> 
> Thanks
> 
> eMark



Try this: http://www.sfe.com.au/content/prices/rtp15sfAP.html

Not "up to the minute" as it clearly states "All Prices are DELAYED by a minimum of 15 minutes."


----------



## M34N (8 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wow +131 at 11:10PM, was interesting watching it go from -5 a little earlier in the night then just rocket up after the RIO announcement. Had a high of +160 earlier on but has pulled back since BHP has fallen in London trading.


----------



## sassa (9 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



eMark said:


> Where do you get your up to the minute SPI 200 info from?
> 
> Thanks
> 
> eMark




http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html


----------



## sassa (9 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Wow +131 at 11:10PM, was interesting watching it go from -5 a little earlier in the night then just rocket up after the RIO announcement. Had a high of +160 earlier on but has pulled back since BHP has fallen in London trading.




Pulled back to 27 overnight but now back to 79 an hour before market opens after a late surge in the Dow from -192 to -33.Seems to be a pattern evolving in America with selloffs and late rallies,followed by a triple digit fall.Anybody with any theories?
Probable reason for rally(and here today) was Bernanke's report to Congress.I include a quote from MarketWatch about his report.
"The good news: The Fed might cut interest rates again. The stock market loves lower rates. 
The bad news: The economy may do even worse than the tepid growth now expected. The stock market hates slow growth."
The market for some reason only focuses on the good news.


----------



## Kauri (9 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> Pulled back to 27 overnight but now back to 79 an hour before market opens *after a late surge in the Dow from -192 to -33.Seems to be a pattern evolving in America with selloffs and late rallies,followed by a triple digit fall.Anybody with any theories?*
> Probable reason for rally(and here today) was Bernanke's report to Congress.I include a quote from MarketWatch about his report.
> "The good news: The Fed might cut interest rates again. The stock market loves lower rates.
> The bad news: The economy may do even worse than the tepid growth now expected. The stock market hates slow growth."
> The market for some reason only focuses on the good news.




  A little bit of grist for the mill..   
Cheers
..........Kauri



> Nov. 8.  Dealers are now noting speculation behind the sharp rally on the stocks this afternoon despite the lack of fresh, positive fundamental news. One rumor is speculation, emerging from the equity market and then the bond market, that the Fed will cut rates tomorrow, which is the reason for the sharp rise in stocks this afternoon. Forex traders are very skeptical on the rumor and most laughed it off but the speculation is being fuelled by an analysis article from a US bank that notes the correlation to the strange stock market recovery just before the Fed rate cut in August. Dealers who don"t believe the rumor also note that despite the downbeat comments from Bernanke today and the bond markets pricing in a Dec rate cut, that Bernanke did not appear at all inclined to cut rates from those who watched the speech today.


----------



## sassa (9 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Market has dropped from opening high.Rio Tinto shares back to $131 after hitting $138 on nearly 5.5 million volume.BHP has a large 26 million volume trade and down about 1%.
Bit of disparity between markets on these shares.
In London, Rio went up 22% and BHP declined 6%.
In America,Rio went up 3% and BHP declined 4.4%.
On the ASX,Rio gained 25% to fall back to 15% whilst BHP has lost 1%.


----------



## M34N (9 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> Pulled back to 27 overnight but now back to 79 an hour before market opens after a late surge in the Dow from -192 to -33.Seems to be a pattern evolving in America with selloffs and late rallies,followed by a triple digit fall.Anybody with any theories?
> Probable reason for rally(and here today) was Bernanke's report to Congress.I include a quote from MarketWatch about his report.
> "The good news: The Fed might cut interest rates again. The stock market loves lower rates.
> The bad news: The economy may do even worse than the tepid growth now expected. The stock market hates slow growth."
> The market for some reason only focuses on the good news.




In regards to your theory, I just think that once the Dow hits a certain low (in the latest cases, it seems to be -100), there's always enough people out there waiting for stocks to get hammered enough for them to be comfortable enough to buy at a relatively lower price. I know I don't wait for the highs to buy in  It makes making money easier when the markets swing like this, so you won't find that many day-traders complaining.

Plus like you said, putting things into context, and people most likely expecting a Christmas rally (which is only about 5-6 weeks away), it's a good time to buy into any dips.


----------



## sassa (9 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> Seems to be a pattern evolving in America with selloffs and late rallies,followed by a triple digit fall.




Perhaps the pattern will continue tonight with the market indicators starting to spiral south.


----------



## sassa (11 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The start of another week.The Spi 200 down 78 points at the moment,all markets in America down on Friday and the euphoria of the proposed BHP-Rio merger.Will the latter be enough to ensure a positive day for our market as it was on Friday?
Problems are not going away in the biggest consumer market of all and a writer at MarketWatch had this to say-
 " U.S. stocks are poised for more weakness next week, after a slide in the Nasdaq wiped out hopes that technology shares could pull the market out of the subprime pain felt by financial institutions on Wall Street."
The Americans must not feel the euphoria about possible BHP-Rio merger as us as Rio shares lost 1.3% on Friday.


----------



## Awesomandy (11 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> The start of another week.The Spi 200 down 78 points at the moment,all markets in America down on Friday and the euphoria of the proposed BHP-Rio merger.Will the latter be enough to ensure a positive day for our market as it was on Friday?
> Problems are not going away in the biggest consumer market of all and a writer at MarketWatch had this to say-
> " U.S. stocks are poised for more weakness next week, after a slide in the Nasdaq wiped out hopes that technology shares could pull the market out of the subprime pain felt by financial institutions on Wall Street."
> The Americans must not feel the euphoria about possible BHP-Rio merger as us as Rio shares lost 1.3% on Friday.




Just a couple of observations... 
I don't think the BHP-Rio thing will hold the market up. Rio opened on Friday (in Aus) at pretty much the highest point, and then fell gradually... lost about $7 by 4:15pm(iirc). 

Also, tech stocks definitely won't be able to keep the market up. If they can do it this time, it probably won't happen in a few months time, unless those companies have large markets in the emerging economies such as China, India, etc. I personally think that, if there are money trouble in the general population, technology would most likely be one of the first thing I would cut spendings on.


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> ... the euphoria of the proposed BHP-Rio merger.Will the latter be enough to ensure a positive day for our market as it was on Friday?
> Problems are not going away in the biggest consumer market of all and a writer at MarketWatch had this to say-
> " U.S. stocks are poised for more weakness next week, after a slide in the Nasdaq wiped out hopes that technology shares could pull the market out of the subprime pain felt by financial institutions on Wall Street."
> The Americans must not feel the euphoria about possible BHP-Rio merger as us as Rio shares lost 1.3% on Friday.




EUPHORIA!!!!

What Euphoria The price of RIO is only a bit over 1% above the bid.
BHP is lower than when the news Hit. FMG and some others have had a good jump but they are still in a one month range bound pattern. Friday advancers to decliners was about equal.

Euphoria....... come on!

Oh and some Dude who for all you know has never placed a trade in his life is saying next week is a down week so that’s it! We should be selling this week. Because Nick Godt has said so. Who the hell is Nick Godt. CBS thinks so highly of him you can’t even find his Bio on their site. Come on! Cut and paste like this have just about turned this tread into the "not worth reading list”. If you think his dribble is worth it I hope you will be shorting hard on the open and hanging on till he says we will be having a big week.


----------



## nizar (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> EUPHORIA!!!!
> 
> What Euphoria The price of RIO is only a bit over 1% above the bid.
> BHP is lower than when the news Hit. FMG and some others have had a good jump but they are still in a one month range bound pattern. Friday advancers to decliners was about equal.
> ...





What do you expect from guys that get paid by opening their mouths, not by trading profitably


----------



## CanOz (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Personally i'm hoping for a selling climax before a nice rally into Christmas for our little index!

Watch those volumes and closes!

Cheers,


----------



## Kauri (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just some musings from one who is fundementally challenged.  ..
  Cisco reports lower earnings going forward due to reduced spending, particularly by Wall St firms.. is the sub-prime now officially spilling over?? Maybe the reports due this week from the big US retailers due this week will shed some more light on this??? Where Wall St leads... we follow??
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Sean K (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Just some musings from one who is fundementally challenged.  ..
> Cisco reports lower earnings going forward due to reduced spending, particularly by Wall St firms.. is the sub-prime now officially spilling over?? Maybe the reports due this week from the big US retailers due this week will shed some more light on this??? Where Wall St leads... we follow??
> Cheers
> ........Kauri



Might have to wait for a summary of the reports. Not sure why GM went pear shaped? Was it people no longer being able to update or one off tax or something? When Harvey Normal electrical devision starts going soft, it might be hitting us. The worst case will be when people stop buying beer. Watch the beer division from Fosters.  By that stage, it might be the bottom....


----------



## dhukka (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Just some musings from one who is fundementally challenged.  ..
> Cisco reports lower earnings going forward due to reduced spending, particularly by Wall St firms.. is the sub-prime now officially spilling over?? Maybe the reports due this week from the big US retailers due this week will shed some more light on this??? Where Wall St leads... we follow??
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




I heard a great line on Bloomberg last week in an interview with some guy I can't remember. The question was posed "Do you think subprime is contained" He replied "sure, it's contained to planet earth."

Cisco's results were good but the forecast going out was not bullish. The reason for the Cisco's comments go something like this: Given the huge writedowns by many Wall Street firms, staff layoffs, and general belt tightening in the compensation area do you think they will be making big investments in technology next year?


----------



## dhukka (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Might have to wait for a summary of the reports. Not sure why GM went pear shaped? Was it people no longer being able to update or one off tax or something? When Harvey Normal electrical devision starts going soft, it might be hitting us. The worst case will be when people stop buying beer. Watch the beer division from Fosters.  By that stage, it might be the bottom....




GM's huge writedown was the writing off of deferred tax assets. When a company makes a loss (as GM has been doing for years) those losses can be offset against future profits. However there is a time limit on the period to which the tax credits can be applied. GM's move to write off the deferred tax assets sends a signal that they are no longer confident about being able to offset those losses in the near term.

Is it related to subprime? Yes and No. GM was in trouble a long time before subprime reared it's head.  They lost *-$10.4 *billion in 2005 and another*- $2.0* billion in 2006.  

However one of the reasons that they have changed their outlook is because of the poor performance of their mortgage origination arm GMAC - which of course is subprime related.


----------



## Sean K (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> I heard a great line on Bloomberg last week in an interview with some guy I can't remember. The question was posed "Do you think subprime is contained" He replied "sure, it's contained to planet earth."
> 
> Cisco's results were good but the forecast going out was not bullish. The reason for the Cisco's comments go something like this: Given the huge writedowns by many Wall Street firms, staff layoffs, and general belt tightening in the compensation area do you think they will be making big investments in technology next year?



Maybe I'm not seeing things too clearly, but there seems to be quite a few good reports out this season, less the financials. 

What is Goodle up to? 

And, one of ours:



> MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Computershare Ltd. (CPU.AU), the world's largest share registry company, Monday upgraded its earnings guidance following a strong start to the fiscal year.
> 
> The Melbourne-based company said it expects earnings per share growth of more than 30% for the year to June 30, 2008.
> 
> ...



Tech seems to be generally going fine. 

Just a perception of course. And, I'm not well read.


----------



## dhukka (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Maybe I'm not seeing things too clearly, but there seems to be quite a few good reports out this season, less the financials.
> 
> What is Goodle up to?
> 
> ...




There are some great reports out this season from technology companies, Google being one of them. And yes less financials, homebuilders and retail earnings look good but you can't ignore 40% of the market. S&P500 earnings are in negative territory overall this quarter. 

The pullback in the NASDAQ last week had as much to do with Cisco's outlook as with the fact that some of these tech companies have run up too far too fast IMHO. Google's share price graph below is representative of quite a few in the tech sector that needed to take a breath.


----------



## mickqld (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just pulled this from reuters. Can see a nice DOW rebound tonight on this news.



Top US banks organise $82bn bailout fundFrom correspondents in New York
November 12, 2007 08:15am
Article from: ReutersFont size: + -
Send this article: Print Email 
THE top US banks agree on the structure of a backup fund of at least $US75 billion ($81.6 billion) to stabilise credit markets, The New York Times reported overnight.

Citing a person involved in the discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity, the Times said that Bank of America, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co officials reached agreement late on Friday, approving a more simplified structure than had been proposed during the course of some two months of negotiations. 

?We cleared all the big hurdles,'' the newspaper quoted its source as saying. ?We agreed to a much simpler structure that we think can get done, rather than optimise it for everyone,'' the person said. 

Discussions began in early autumn when the US Treasury Department convened a meeting. 

Previous versions of a backup fund had been widely considered infeasible, spurring doubts about the prospect for a final plan, the Times said. 

The proposed fund could begin operating by the end of the year, the newspaper reported, and the banks could start asking some 60 financial institutions to contribute to the fund in the next five to 10 days. 

US Treasury Department officials declined to comment, the newspaper said. 

The fund is meant to avoid a severe credit market disruption, according to its organisers, by either providing time for asset prices to recover or, more likely, at least discourage structured investment vehicles from unloading their holdings en masse, the Times said. 

The fund also needs the major credit rating agencies' blessings.


----------



## Kauri (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> THE top US banks agree on the structure of a backup fund of at least $US75 billion ($81.6 billion) to stabilise credit markets, The New York Times reported overnight.
> 
> Citing a person involved in the discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity, the Times said that Bank of America, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co officials reached agreement late on Friday, approving a more simplified structure than had been proposed during the course of some two months of negotiations.



If it smells bad   :flush:    it doesn't matter how much you spray air-freshener about, it will still stink until it is flushed....
 Hiding/diguising Wall St's losses is not going to give much joy to the millions of Americans being turfed out of thier houses by these same banks/institutions, but I have no doubt that the punters will see it as a positive and charge back in.....
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> If it smells bad   :flush:    it doesn't matter how much you spray air-freshener about, it will still stink until it is flushed....
> Hiding/diguising Wall St's losses is not going to give much joy to the millions of Americans being turfed out of thier houses by these same banks/institutions, but I have no doubt that the punters will see it as a positive and charge back in.....
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




You certainly are in good form Kauri.

Very eloquently put.


----------



## sassa (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mickqld said:


> Just pulled this from reuters. Can see a nice DOW rebound tonight on this news.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




The Japanese markets musn't think much of it.

Japan Stocks Fall to Lowest in More Than a Year; Exporters Drop 

By Patrick Rial

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks dropped to the lowest this year after reports of subprime losses at U.S. banks sent the dollar tumbling, clouding the profit outlook for companies including Matsu****a Electric Industrial Co. 

Matsu****a, the world's largest maker of consumer electronics, dropped to the lowest in two weeks. Japan's benchmark Topix index fell to the lowest since June 2006. 

In the U.S., the Standard & Poor's 500 Index slumped 1.4 percent on Nov. 9 after Wachovia Corp. announced losses on subprime-related investments, while Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. also said their earnings may suffer. 

``It's not just the decline in U.S. stocks that we need to worry about; investors are reducing risk, which is causing yen strength across a lot of currencies, and that's bad for the exporters,'' said Norihiro Fujito, a senior strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co. in Tokyo


----------



## sassa (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Markets dropping rapidly both here and in Japan and Hong Kong.Nikkei down 3.5%,Hang Seng down 4% and ASX down over 1%.Market indicators for the S & P 500,Nasdaq and DJIA starting to fall also.Any news for sharp decline?


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> Markets dropping rapidly both here and in Japan and Hong Kong.Nikkei down 3.5%,Hang Seng down 4% and ASX down over 1%.Market indicators for the S & P 500,Nasdaq and DJIA starting to fall also.Any news for sharp decline?




What can’t find an article by a talking head to explain it?

Don't worry you will be able to find one tomorrow about the todays action by someone who doesn’t trade because they can’t. 

What about a bit of analysis of price action from you rather than cut and paste news??


----------



## juw177 (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> What can’t find an article by a talking head to explain it?
> 
> Don't worry you will be able to find one tomorrow about the todays action by someone who doesn’t trade because they can’t.
> 
> What about a bit of analysis of price action from you rather than cut and paste news??




I think I have a good spin on this one: oil price fears, subprime fears and profit downgrade fears. What a genius I am.


----------



## Whiskers (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm thinking it might have something to do with a new regulation that Kauri posted, and this article that I posted, on the Immemant and Severe Market Correction thread.



> It sounds like the US might be bracing for another dump this week.
> 
> Could be that FASB regulation 157 forcing the hand of the money merchants.[
> 
> ...


----------



## sassa (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> What can’t find an article by a talking head to explain it?
> 
> Don't worry you will be able to find one tomorrow about the todays action by someone who doesn’t trade because they can’t.
> 
> What about a bit of analysis of price action from you rather than cut and paste news??




Don't notice too much analysis on price action on your typepad.Please to see you have a disclaimer that commences,"I make mistakes."Certainly are a few spelling and grammatical ones in the only two I read.Perhaps a bit of cut and paste for the articles you draw some of your information from would be a great help.


----------



## austek (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Forgot one, 'Rate hikes'.

But anyone looking at a chart from across the road would see some serious support has been broken on several Indices.


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 November 2007)

*Re:*



sassa said:


> Don't notice too much analysis on price action on your typepad.Please to see you have a disclaimer that commences,"I make mistakes."Certainly are a few spelling and grammatical ones in the only two I read.Perhaps a bit of cut and paste for the articles you draw some of your information from would be a great help.




My point is that this thread is titled *XAO Analysis *but it seems to have become a place to cut and paste articles from journalist. Ones that like most "news" out there is just rehashing of generalist dribble made-up to explain price movements by people that don't actually participate in the market, don't really understand it and will probably never will. 

This poor excuse for information has its place, like misinforming the lazy, but in a thread about analysing the market when it used as 'the' comment rather than some evidence or extension of an idea it just downgrades the usefulness of this thread.

There has been some great, unique and impressive market analysis on this thread of all types by independent market participants. A lot are not my cup of tea, a lot are opposite to what I think but mostly they are very informative in their own way and add to the ongoing discussion. I just fail to see what cutting and pasting populist media rubbish can add to a thread titled *XAO Analysis*. If I'm wrong I'm more than willing to listen to why or how such ordinary "news" is worth reprinting. 

Just as a note my information doesn't come from 'articles' to cut and paste. My info comes from watching charts, the ticker and forming my own opinion from the action I see myself as well as a good hit of fading the headlines.


----------



## sassa (12 November 2007)

*Re:*



trembling Hand said:


> My point is that this thread is titled *XAO Analysis *but it seems to have become a place to cut and paste articles from journalist. Ones that like most "news" out there is just rehashing of generalist dribble made-up to explain price movements by people that don't actually participate in the market, don't really understand it and will probably never will.
> 
> This poor excuse for information has its place, like misinforming the lazy, but in a thread about analysing the market when it used as 'the' comment rather than some evidence or extension of an idea it just downgrades the usefulness of this thread.




Most threads on this forum have posts that are completely away from the title.Many people cut and paste.If one was to rely on only people giving their own "opinion"in this forum,many EXCELLENT articles written by JOURNALISTS,who would get information from analysts and economists far more credentialled than(insert names you would like to, including....)in this forum.
It is not only obligatory to give credit to the writer of the article you have cut and pasted,but also,good manners.If you take other people's articles and rewrite them in your own words,it is called plagiarism.
So how many posts in this thread would you excoriate because they don't give an "analysis?"
To finish off,your first two threads to me were pure sarcasm and as the immortal bard said,"It is the lowest form of wit."Go back through the thread and do the same post to people who do a lot of cutting and pasting.


----------



## Gurgler (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Okay, sassa ands tremblingHand - can I just make a suggestion?

If you wish to continue this discussion-for-two, perhaps you might consider using PM. Actually you both have valid points/opinions/contributions (I consider), but it's not wise to allow any thread to turn into one-on-one attacks.

BTW I recognise that I am guilty of quoting articles, TH, but that is because I don't feel qualified/experienced enough to offer the calibre of analysis I have read on this thread, however, I do want to be a part of the forum, not just an observer - and thus I try to contribute. I will try my hand at adding commentary or opinion next time - hopefully not too facile. If I do so, I hope that readers will recognise that I am learning as I go and give me positive, constructive feedback and suggestion (without rancour). Perhaps, it's just a matter of degree, sassa?

Just my attempt to find some middle path.


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sound good Gurgler.

As far as adding your own words. Knock yourself out. Nothing to fear in adding your opinions or questions and even articles if they are helpful in getting you point across.


----------



## theasxgorilla (13 November 2007)

*Re:*



trembling Hand said:


> My point is that this thread is titled *XAO Analysis *but it seems to have become a place to cut and paste articles from journalist.




Posters,

TH has a point here.  Cutting and pasting entire articles about something to do with finance in some part of the world and inferring it to be connected with XAO Analysis is a bit too much of a stretch.  I won't pull the original articles as they're now well and truly part of the history of this thread.

Going forward, feel free to find a more appropriate thread for this kind of news, or failing the existance of one, don't hesitate to create your own.

Thanks,

ASX.G


----------



## Awesomandy (13 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We might have a quiet day on the market today. We had a public holiday in the US, and FTSE is up a little (33 points). The futures are pretty much steady at the moment. However, the points difference between the XAO and XJO is now 78 points. AUD/USD now down to around 88c. JPY/USD is just on110. It looks like we need some seriously good news to get things back up again.


----------



## macca (13 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Andy,

I have been watching the XAO / XJO gap as well.

I have had a look back through the charts and I can't find a bigger gap anywhere ( not exhaustive, but over recent times)

The only thing I can think of is that the BIG money is going home and we have an influx of Euro money playing the smaller resources.

Or, perhaps it is the money flowing into small cap funds being  invested into the market.

Anyone else have any thoughts on it ?


----------



## nizar (13 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XJO was leading for about 2 years before earlier this year when the XAO started taking over.
Obviously means the small stocks are making more gains than the top200.

Re: DJIA, it must be getting awfully close to where it rebounded in the last correction??

I have 12845 as the lowest close with 12517 as intraday low.

So we should be near the bottom of this correction?

I think so. The DOW has given up more than 1000pts from the top.

Thoughts??


----------



## Sean K (13 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> XJO was leading for about 2 years before earlier this year when the XAO started taking over.
> Obviously means the small stocks are making more gains than the top200.
> 
> Re: DJIA, it must be getting awfully close to where it rebounded in the last correction??
> ...



I agree. 12800 ish for me. Maybe equates to 6450 ish on the XAO if they move together ish.


----------



## nizar (13 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I agree. 12800 ish for me. Maybe equates to 6450 ish on the XAO if they move together ish.




Yeah and 6400-50 on the XAO is where that stubborn resistance was from back in June/July.


----------



## Trembling Hand (13 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



macca said:


> Hi Andy,
> 
> I have been watching the XAO / XJO gap as well.
> 
> ...




Macca 
I knocked together a chart of the smallest 200 companies in the XAO. I call them the SAOs(Smallest Allordinaries) and compared it to the XAO. As you can see they are growing faster than the Large caps. That would be the reason for the XAO outperforming the XJO. If fact if this trend continues this divergence could really open up. What is interesting is the lower low just put in from the SAOs something to watch? A bit of flight from risk?


----------



## dj_420 (13 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XJO chart shows a few things:

Looks like a blow off top at 6,859. Looks like old resistance could form support at 6,414. A break through this level and I put next level of support at 6,200 ish where we had a period of consolidation and showed some sort of support.

Next level after that would be 6,072.

In past 200 MDA has provided some sort of support, in recent months however it has dropped straight through that point. 

XJO in definite downtrend just depends where we will find some support.


----------



## nikki (13 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

DJ_420 and trembling hand - just wanted to say thanks for your charts. i found your analysis helpful and very interesting.

i read this on a news service:

"The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index was up 1.0% at 6519.5 around 0251 GMT after hitting a seven-week low of 6437.3 in early trading.

The index has found support from a former major resistance level near 6437.0, after falling 6% in the past seven days.

"We were trading yesterday in anticipation of the U.S. crapping out and it didn't," said Goldman Sachs JBWere senior trader Patrick Crabb. "There's lots of volatility, but some of those stocks that were poleaxed are attracting some interest."

Seems like someone else called the bottom today on certain type of trading activity anyway (e.g. ABS).


----------



## rub92me (15 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Quite a sell off in the afternoon for the XAO, the slide masked by significant gains on ZFX and FMG (I'm assuming they're in there?). Not out of the woods yet in my opinion.


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rub92me said:


> Quite a sell off in the afternoon for the XAO, the slide masked by significant gains on ZFX and FMG (I'm assuming they're in there?). Not out of the woods yet in my opinion.




Mostly Futures driven I would think. Once we stalled at yesterday’s highs and rolled over taking out the mornings lows that gap from yesterday would of been standing out to be fill on Future Traders charts like Dogs ****.


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just to illustrate the changing market of the last 6 months compared to the 4 year bull run.  I have marked on the XJO chart below consolidation periods followed by breakouts. There has only been two downside breaks from a consolidation since the Bull run started and they have been in the last 4 months!!

I'm thinking that some peoples 'systems' will start to stall if they don't make adjustments to them. That is of course if what I believe will be more of a stop start market continues. That the game may well turn into more of a buy low sell a bit higher game rather than a buy and wait for the break high.


----------



## Sean K (20 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

EWers could put some more detail in the 5 wave down on this probably but wonder if the 6450 ish will hold?


----------



## MS+Tradesim (27 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What's up with the XAO today? Has risen solidly since 1:20pm.


----------



## Awesomandy (27 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> What's up with the XAO today? Has risen solidly since 1:20pm.




Not really sure, but I'm guessing it's due to Abu Dhabi's shopping trip.


----------



## Nyden (27 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> What's up with the XAO today? Has risen solidly since 1:20pm.




I noticed that, risen quite sharply. I don't know if it will hold though - certainly hope it does though p

Could be "bargain" hunters, punting on a green day in the US overnight? I was hoping to see volatility disappear over the holiday season, so far it hasn't panned out.



In truth though - maybe people are just becoming desensitised to the US movement overnight, I know I sure am - I used get quite upset over a plunge of .5-1% in the US markets...now, a 2.3% plunge doesn't even phase me. I just roll my eyes & wait for it to bounce back...yet again.

So, perhaps others like myself have just gotten sick of it! Continuing on with business as usual, it is all rather irrational, & inefficient.


----------



## Kauri (27 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How the Nikkei reacts to Citi/ADIA news after their Sushi break will decide our afternoon I think...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## dhukka (28 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Today's rally off the lows was a sucker's rally. The Citi news is not good. Straight away if you are Citi shareholder you've just lost *4%* of your money because of the dilution of the ADIA investment. On top of that the *11%* they have to pay on the ADIA units means an annual cost of *$825* million impacting earnings. 

Not to mention that this *$7.5* billion is not anywhere near enough to shore up their capital ratios. Expect further asset sales or further dilutive investments going forward.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (28 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes, the US has started to sell their assets at firesale prices - desperate times ahead? 

The market perverseness continues? Could be the start of a belated bullish phase leading into the next interest rate cut by the US Fed (on the road to zero %)? The markets generally are short term oversold. Should be a couple of days of strong gains ahead, then back to the bear.


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Today's rally off the lows was a sucker's rally.




The sucker being those that did not benefit from it you mean?


----------



## nizar (28 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, the US has started to sell their assets at firesale prices - desperate times ahead?
> 
> The market perverseness continues? Could be the start of a belated bullish phase leading into the next interest rate cut by the US Fed (on the road to zero %)? The markets generally are short term oversold. Should be a couple of days of strong gains ahead, then back to the bear.




Damn, you really are a permabear arent you Uncle?

A rate cut would fuel the santa claus rally like no 2mrw.


----------



## wavepicker (28 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Should be a couple of days of strong gains ahead, then back to the bear.




Although I have a bearish bias myself and I have been previously bearish the market(months ago), I don't think this will be the case. 

The market looks to be churning at present and will be probably reverse here to put in one final leg above to approx 7100 by Feb/March 2008 before turning bearish. I had earmarked a low for the current leg down for either 15th Nov Or 20th Nov but it came late  again by 6-8  trading days for both the XAO and SP500.

If this does actually unfold this way, it will setup up nicely for the mother of all EW Ending Diagonal Patterns next year(DJI and SP500) which may setup a very large move down and. I so I have actually been long this market on some stocks since 15th of November and went long some others last week, but in the back of my mind I have Feb/March timeframe which I will be paying close attention to.

Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus (28 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Damn, you really are a permabear arent you Uncle?
> 
> A rate cut would fuel the santa claus rally like no 2mrw.




Couldn't care less about a 'label' being applied as to view oneself as either a bull or a bear limits your objectivity when investing/trading. I am bearish.

If we are going to call the shot's then the bears have quite a bit of ammo up their collective sleeves; it's just I havn't seen a convincing argument for the bull these day's .

Rate cut's? Another one step forward, two steps backward again as far as the US goes. The Aussie market is a different story - for now at least? Still tradeable either way; everything is tradeable?


----------



## austek (29 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I could fall either way, as I see the XAO declining within a bullflag and when it breaks up it breaks up.  One of many buy signals for me.

Being 95% in cash I would prefer to see price rise 95 today, hit the the flag top and give us one last leg down toward 6200/6300, and offer a significant candle tail to show it's time to get back in.

Is my optimism showing?


----------



## nikki (30 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

wavepicker:

really like your analysis only because it confirms what i read somewhere else, re expect the DJIA to test new highs in this current rally only to realise the impact of currency devaluations (caused by drops in interest rate) and bad fundamentals, etc. means stocks are seriously overvalued. this will then lead to a significant drop in value in S&P and DJIA like 2000/2001.

this translates well in terms of what you say because December/January/February are usually the best months for the Aussie indexes - perhaps it will be time to reinvest in cash come february??


----------



## >Apocalypto< (30 November 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

lately I have only been trading FX,

But the xjo today caught my eye, I am long from this afternoon.

looks the deal to me, support found around the 38% fib point we have a higher low moved though down trend line, CCI just above zero price above 21 MA. XAO had a nice volume bar yesterday.

Dow also meting some of my entry requirements.

this ticked off so many boxes I decided to take up a long position. my stop is under the 50% point of the last three bars.

I am thinking the us may be red tonight. don't want any plunges!


----------



## gilbo (1 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm with you Nyden - I just wish a few more were de-sensitised to the Dow. With our squillions of super dollars looking for a home and China & India going gangbusters I think we should just occasionally be looking at the US rather than following religiously, certainly from a resource stock perspective and probably across a few more sectors.

It's interesting though watching the sub-prime debacle unfold - anyone have any views on when the majority of the bad news will have outed and we can try and put some of this volatility behind us? Perhaps when the major US banks complete their year-ends and we can all have a look at their financials in full (if anyone can understand 'em)?


----------



## nikki (1 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

no way are we finished with bad news - but i have noticed that as soon as markets are feeling like they are oversold the media start looking for more good news stories and make a big deal out of them?

it is like the august turn around when suddenly bad news stories were ignored because the market was oversold and who cared billions were being written-off!!!!


----------



## Uncle Festivus (8 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gilbo said:


> It's interesting though watching the sub-prime debacle unfold - anyone have any views on when the majority of the bad news will have outed and we can try and put some of this volatility behind us?




That's the dangerous misconception that the current volatility is ephemeral and all will be back to normal after Bush & Paulson do their magic. The reality is there is a huge disconnection between the financial markets and the real economy in the US. The markets may rally on each rate cut but the intrinsic momentum will be to revert to negative adjustments over time.



nikki said:


> no way are we finished with bad news - but i have noticed that as soon as markets are feeling like they are oversold the media start looking for more good news stories and make a big deal out of them?
> 
> it is like the august turn around when suddenly bad news stories were ignored because the market was oversold and who cared billions were being written-off!!!!




Yes, someone has to balance the stary eyed ramping journos .
I give it next Friday, the ramifications of the rate cut will surface and reality will dictate a judicious shorting strategy eg CBA?


----------



## hacheln_mice (9 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Despite XAO holding up very well, the internals of the market is pretty average.  It is a stock picker's environment.


----------



## Sean K (9 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> EWers could put some more detail in the 5 wave down on this probably but wonder if the 6450 ish will hold?



6450 _ish _proved to be support and end of a W5. Now perhaps in a W5 up approaching resistance around the 6750/6800 level and maybe time for a breather. I'd expect the potential 50 point rate but to provide a significant bounce, however, what if it's just 25 points and this is factored in? Potential turnaround point perhaps. Crystal ball is looking at a potential double top with a 6000 _ish _target. MACD says next step down to me but hard to see 6200 breaking....


----------



## Kauri (9 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> 6450 _ish _proved to be support and end of a W5. Now perhaps in a W5 up approaching resistance around the 6750/6800 level and maybe time for a breather. I'd expect the potential 50 point rate but to provide a significant bounce, however, what if it's just 25 points and this is factored in? Potential turnaround point perhaps. Crystal ball is looking at a potential double top with a 6000 _ish _target. MACD says next step down to me but hard to see 6200 breaking....




Hi Kennas,
  I'm having a classic schitzophrenic moment... can't decide which way I think it will go, watching, and waiting, for me....
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## RichKid (9 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



hacheln_mice said:


> Despite XAO holding up very well, the internals of the market is pretty average.  It is a stock picker's environment.



Nice work. Thanks very much for the chart hacheln, a decline in market breadth is characteristic of a fifth wave in EW and  signals the advent of a corrective sequence.

A similar type of divergence is referred to in Dow Theory as well, if I recall correctly, as 'non-confirmation' (DJIA vs Transports). There may well be divergence bw the major Aussie index (XJO/XAO) and the corresponding 'transports' here (ie a local 'non-confirmation' parallel per Dow Theory), I wonder if anyone in the local market has studied this aspect of internal weakness religiously over the long term. 

The question is really- have we reached the end of the final minor degree impulsive sequence? Using timing tools will be very useful now as the final wave may shoot away before it collapses. The end is in sight for this degree of trend if the AD line is any clue. A weekly line chart of the same study since the start of this bullmarket should confirm this- especially in relation to the greater breadth in Wave 3 of the same degree. Wavepicker would know more about the nuances of this indicator.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (10 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting stat from Inside business yesterday - if you take out BHP, RIO and the top 25, the market has so far this year returned minus 1%. Looks like there is a lot riding on those 27 companies for our super returns, going forward as they say?


----------



## austek (11 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hope I'm wrong here as I am 50% into the market, but I see the XAO forming a small bear flag pattern, not a very bullish sign as I see it.

Any opinions to the contrary ?


----------



## willow (15 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hello, I noticed someone mentioned Dow theory on this thread recently. For those interested an interesting article on the Financial Sense website www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm showing a compelling bit of evidence that this bull run may be very well over. According to the article a primary trend change has been confirmed on the DJIA using Dow theory. These bearish primary trend changes apparently have only had 3 false readings out of 30 since Dow came up with the theory over 100 years ago. It's also interesting some Elliot Wave people are saying this could be the end on the 5th wave.
The chart I posted shows the only 4 divergences on the longterm stochastic momentum indicator I use, one is recent and has yet to be confirmed by the XJO. The prior 3 all happened at market corrections including the major bear market before this bull run and the time of the Sept 11th correction. The turning of this longterm momentum indicator comes a bit late for my liking but has so far proved very reliable. The pullback to the smoothed RSI trendline gives a clear warning of possible trouble and helps with an earlier signal, this has happened on all 3 occasions. A break of the RSI trendline first then a diverging pullback second, in conjuction with a divergence of a very longterm momentum indicator. At the end of the chart we now have a similar scenario yet to be proven. The latest RSI divergence doesn.t look a pretty picture either. 
Of course my latest trendline could prove incorrect and the bull run may go further but used in conjuntion with Dow theory and a possible end of a 5th wave I will be backing off on long trades for the time being. Hope this helps. Cheers.


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



willow said:


> The chart I posted shows the only 4 divergences on the longterm stochastic momentum indicator I use, one is recent and has yet to be confirmed by the XJO. The prior 3 all happened at market corrections including the major bear market before this bull run and the time of the Sept 11th correction.




Looking at the chart you have posted I only really see one incident when it could of signalled trouble that being late 02 falls where it put in lower lows. The other times it didn't put in lower lows but just pull backs in the uptrend.
I know the times where you are talking about but in the context of a long term weekly chart they are just pull backs to the trend line not exactly a major correction as seen in a weekly time frame.


----------



## willow (16 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Quote; Looking at the chart you have posted I only really see one incident when it could of signalled trouble that being late 02 falls where it put in lower lows. The other times it didn't put in lower lows but just pull backs in the uptrend.
I know the times where you are talking about but in the context of a long term weekly chart they are just pull backs to the trend line not exactly a major correction as seen in a weekly time frame. 

Hello Trembling Hand. I myself would call a fall from 3500 to 2700 a major correction, that is the major correction I speak of, others may call it differently and that's OK with me. My post was mainly for those who are not interested in being involved on any pullback or correction whatsoever. If someone wants to wait for a series of lower lows and highs on the weekly chart before taking action then that's ok with me too. I trade more shorter term than that so I often hold off  on trading when things are starting to look iffy. Even a pullback on a weekly chart to me is trouble. And at the moment with experts on Dow theory  having the odds being in their favor and the weak longterm technichals then I'm backing off until evidence and time reveals itself a bit more. I look for only what I think are the best short term trades and only trade them on a limited scale or stand aside at times like this then jump back in on new evidence of a trend developing. The weeklies help with the longterm picture. Hope this explains things a bit better. A lot of misunderstanding comes from the different timeframes one uses, on forums. Cheers.


----------



## nikki (16 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Willow, thanks for sharing these ideas with us. I appreciate it.

The interesting thing is that you confirm your views using the Dow theory article you refer to. I have a problem with that particular reading of the Dow Theory for two reasons:

(1) if you look at the utilities it had new highs last week before the pull back. for some dow theorists this suggests that the transport will move to new highs next followed by the industrials. this is very different to the particular dow theory that the article you refer to uses.

(2) the article uses the closing low (rather than intraday) as an indicator of the low established back in august. i think this is convenient if you want the november low to be a lower low.

So, i am new to all this stuff but the fact that the MACD on the DJIA is showing potential upward move with some good news i for one would not be shorting the market in Aus at the moment. Having said that i trade mostly small caps and i am doing pretty badly at the moment anyway??????


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



willow said:


> My post was mainly for those who are not interested in being involved on any pullback or correction whatsoever. If someone wants to wait for a series of lower lows and highs on the weekly chart before taking action then that's ok with me too. I trade more shorter term than that so I often hold off  on trading when things are starting to look iffy. Even a pullback on a weekly chart to me is trouble.




That is my point. Why would you look at a weekly chart and read something into it on a lower time frame. Why wait for a seris of weekly periods to trade on a daily basis. A weekly chart could take months to turn and if it does then and you are trading on a daily basis, like most, surely the daily chart would of signal trouble ahead much sooner.


----------



## willow (16 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Gooday Nikki, I'ts good to have more insight on Dow theory. I've been following that website for a while now and I find them very thorough in the evidence they produce, but granted it doesn't surprise me you have found evidence to the contrary or a different way someone looks at it. Another website I follow and respect says this will be a good year for stocks and gives their reasons why. I am listening to these fellows because my technicals are also giving a warning to be cautious, nothing else, not to jump on shorts yet, or longs, just stand aside and watch.
I am glad you will be doing what you believe and going long, I have found it is better to do your own thing than follow what others say and usually more profitable. Good luck.


----------



## willow (16 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Trembling Hand, of course I look at the dailies and I see difficult trading since mid October. The reason for the weekly chart apart from what the chart itself is showing, is because that is what I decided to post. To me it shows a better picture of what we could be in for and I will revert back to the dailies to take action. Did you find it interesting how a pullback happened on the Xjo after the rsi pulled back to it's trendline on those few occasions?. Of course things may change and these rsi pullbacks fail. Just check out what I posted then do what you want, I'm not that interested in spending too much time defending my position. Cheers.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (17 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

August repeat anyone?


----------



## numbercruncher (17 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Santa Clause'


----------



## MS+Tradesim (17 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We've been really bad and Santa is going to put coal in our stocking.


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> August repeat anyone?




Option market makers doing the usual taking out of expiring options.


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> We've been really bad and Santa is going to put coal in our stocking.




Maybe you could sell it to China


----------



## Nyden (17 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

224 points? What the heck is that  
Even by Dow standards, that's a pretty heavy drop. 

I honestly thought we'd avoid a drop today - considering we already dropped last week rather considerably 

Has anyone had any success in taking a market vacation - as in just not looking at the market for a month or 2, & hoping for the best?


----------



## GreatPig (17 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Time to hit the bottom of the channel again?

Around 6115 by my chart.

GP


----------



## motorway (18 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some P&F studies using the S&P 300

( There is a lot of noise in the broader market and the 300 contains what matters anyway )

Bullish % is bear confirmed ( but not from an overly overbought position )

45% of stocks in the  300 are  still  on a P&F 3box reversal double top buy signal..........

The bullish% is posted as a P&F chart and as a line chart superimposed on the bar chart ( note the long standing divergence . Signs of a maturing bull market )

IF we designate the top as a top ( distribution ) and identify preliminary supply... climax and a last point of supply.......Then the count , (which carries with it an implication--> Distribution means lower prices , and an objective------> a stop look and listen point.) Would have this back to the bottom of the trend channel.

If the same themes can carry forward..Then there could be very good buying at that level...If not.. then new themes will be needed to carry the market forward ( rotation.. watch the relative strengths )

What does not happen is as important as what does ( The Bullish% could go to bull confirmed....... downside implications negated etc )

OF those stocks still on P&F buy signals .. There are a lot of high pole warnings ( so a little lower and there will substantial fall in the bullish%
The oversold level reached on the last correction as noted at the time was extreme... hence there was a powerful rally without a cause ( rally from oversold position )

Posted material on the bullish% before
Google should throw up a few links.

for discussion

also note the ease of movement on the bar chart atm

motorway


----------



## Whiskers (18 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> 224 points? What the heck is that
> Even by Dow standards, that's a pretty heavy drop.
> 
> I honestly thought we'd avoid a drop today - considering we already dropped last week rather considerably
> ...




Cheer up Nyden, tomorrow will be a better day. I promise. 

The US seems to be relatively calm, might finish less than .5% down for Dow and S&P, Nasdag maybe less than 1%. Cu, Zn & Ni have taken a bit of a hit,  but $US gaining a bit against the $A, and gold holding up. 

I think we over estimated or mistimed the US reaction to the subprime rescue plan. I'm going to get a bit of shut eye and wake up to a better start here 

Oh gaud just as I speak gold came back a couple.


----------



## Nyden (18 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Cheer up Nyden, tomorrow will be a better day. I promise.
> 
> The US seems to be relatively calm, might finish less than .5% down for Dow and S&P, Nasdag maybe less than 1%. Cu, Zn & Ni have taken a bit of a hit,  but $US gaining a bit against the $A, and gold holding up.
> 
> ...





.5, eh?  One more day like this, & I'm turning off the computer for 2 weeks! 

I seem to have developed a cold or the likes, & I'm not thinking clearly - so, perhaps the vacation is the best thing right now


----------



## Nyden (18 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Cheer up Nyden, tomorrow will be a better day. I promise.
> 
> The US seems to be relatively calm, might finish less than .5% down for Dow and S&P, Nasdag maybe less than 1%. Cu, Zn & Ni have taken a bit of a hit,  but $US gaining a bit against the $A, and gold holding up.
> 
> ...






I hope you didn't bet the house on that promise there, mate 

I've been thinking - is there anything that could truly *save* us this time, like the last? Last time we obviously had the US rate cut, which obviously set us up for huge gains, but - rate cuts just don't seem to help anymore? My question is, what possible trick could any government have up their sleeves to help this time?


----------



## MS+Tradesim (18 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> I hope you didn't bet the house on that promise there, mate
> 
> I've been thinking - is there anything that could truly *save* us this time, like the last? Last time we obviously had the US rate cut, which obviously set us up for huge gains, but - rate cuts just don't seem to help anymore? My question is, what possible trick could any government have up their sleeves to help this time?




There are no rabbits in the hat. Cutting interest rates takes 6-9mths to flow through into the economy despite any short-term rally it might produce. The problem is the greed and stupidity of the American banks and hedge funds and brokerages who created all sorts of financial instruments to on-sell, instruments that are backed by high-risk debt ie sub-prime mortgages. Think about it...bundle up a billion dollars worth of sub-prime mortgages and sell it. The next insto borrows $9b, puts in a $1b of their own money and then buys $10b of these products. The underlying mortgages are people who couldn't normally afford loans getting into the market through honeymoon deals and when the loan resets to a higher interest rate they are in trouble. Get 1000s of people in the same boat and the defaults hit and the onsold mortgages are worth nothing. It's like the mother of all margin-calls on the instos holding leveraged parcels of these products. The same greed and stupidity underwrites the whole American economy and the west in general where saving and investing was replaced by buying on credit and living beyond one's means. The resets on these loans peak around April next year so I believe the worst is yet to come.

I feel for all the responsible people who are hurting because of this debacle but I don't see any way any government can prevent the consequences of the mess we're in.


----------



## Whiskers (18 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> I hope you didn't bet the house on that promise there, mate
> 
> I've been thinking - is there anything that could truly *save* us this time, like the last? Last time we obviously had the US rate cut, which obviously set us up for huge gains, but - rate cuts just don't seem to help anymore? My question is, what possible trick could any government have up their sleeves to help this time?




No Nyden. I'm not hurting too much yet. 

As soon as I turned my back and went to bed, the bludy yanks started jumping over cliffs again. 

One consellation is we got the bath over early then started to refloat a bit as the day went on.

I do concur with MS+Tradesim. The yanks are unbelievably greedy, cunning and deceitful in their commercial dealings and exporting their troubles.

I think the US needed to address the $ as a prerequesate of the yanke superiority complex as a factor of their Consumer Confidence. It looks to me like base metals might have been oversold a bit by traders along with stocks to get cash back into a firming $US and it also helps to lessen the need for further interest rate cuts.

So long as our economy stays sound I think we will bounce back better that the yanks, once they settle down and figure out where they're at.


----------



## Nick Radge (18 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bullish interpretation anyone...








_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## nizar (18 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Bullish interpretation anyone...




Nick, on your chart today looks quite similar to what happened on that day that marked the turning point of the correction in mid August.


----------



## M34N (18 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Actually, looking a bit closer at that chart, one could almost say that we are due for a technical rebound? We've had 5 days of excessive losses (on pretty much the same things that have been happening since August), and we finished near a day high after recouping some 2% today. If the bulls get their way, we could go up another 4-5% with a given a Santa rally (maybe somewhere around the 6500 region again), but if the US goes down again tonight, we will probably retest the 6100 level again or possibly lower. Will be interesting times ahead.

I'm tipping a rebound myself, probably through to Christmas, then a drop back after everyone recovers from their hangovers 

Just my


----------



## Real1ty (18 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Actually, looking a bit closer at that chart, one could almost say that we are due for a technical rebound? We've had 5 days of excessive losses (on pretty much the same things that have been happening since August), and we finished near a day high after recouping some 2% today. If the bulls get their way, we could go up another 4-5% with a given a Santa rally (maybe somewhere around the 6500 region again), but if the US goes down again tonight, we will probably retest the 6100 level again or possibly lower. Will be interesting times ahead.
> 
> *I'm tipping a rebound myself, probably through to Christmas, then a drop back after everyone recovers from their hangovers *
> 
> Just my




Later in the week is when the direction will come imo.

Bear and Stearns and Morgan Stanley report and if these are bad, i think santa will be well and truly buried.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (18 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Bullish interpretation anyone...
> 
> 
> 
> ...




great post nick, you show clarity in the panic. 

much enjoyed and appreciated.

Nizar depending on the next rally and how it fairs to the sellers. I am also looking for higher low or divergence to get in long. I personally think the market is changing it's behavior. I don't think it's changing for the better either! time will tell can't be one sided in any picture no matter how one sided it seems.


----------



## nikki (19 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

a broker i read suggested that if the XJO closes below 6330 this week the primary trend will start to be down?

is anyone able to help me understand why this might be the case and what it might mean.

when i saw the market rallying all day yesterday i thought i saw August repeated but am now not so sure?

any ideas would be greatly appreciated.


----------



## tronic72 (19 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think it's pretty simply. The Market was due a correction and it has come but due to factors such as the drought (see record wheat prices), the recent centro and RAMs disasters (Sub Prime issue) and the fact that the US is close to recession the positive signs for buyers just don't exist (I know there's others).

Yesterdays carnage was much less severe than it would otherwise have been due to bargain hunters (myself included) If the Aussie market doesn't follow Wall St's very small turn around then we could see more drops.

Speaking for myself I've purchased select parcels during every drop since prices started falling last week, thinking each fall would be the last and hoping the shares I purchased would buck the trend. As we've all seen, very few shares have done this since late last week. If I don't see a turn around I'll be taking my money (and my bat and ball) out of play, as I've already lost on the last few falls and can't continue to do that without murdering my capital. I think other bargain hunters will start to be less inclined to jump back in and you may see more falls but without yesterdays recovery.

We'll know in 30 minutes.


----------



## chops_a_must (19 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I would have expected a much harder rally today. Most of the stocks are just filling the gap from yesterday. The SPI is really struggling to do that though. We've had a lot of big name stocks break down from triangles, and they can't even retest those levels. After thinking I would be all long today, it just looks like another opportunity to position for shorts.


----------



## Nyden (19 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That was most dissapointing. All of my stocks started great, but ended just awful 

Bloody yanks, when are they going to rally already!
A nice +300 good points tonight would be just great, +3% on Zn, 6% on Copper, I'm starting to doubt that it's going to happen :

Sigh, when is it earnings reporting season here


----------



## Whiskers (19 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nikki said:


> a broker i read suggested that if the XJO closes below 6330 this week the primary trend will start to be down?
> 
> is anyone able to help me understand why this might be the case and what it might mean.
> 
> ...




Hi Nikki

6330 is the closing price on the weekly chart for 3 weeks ago and pretty close to four weeks. A bit of a support level. I have shown the level (horizontal line) below on the daily. What is also interesting is yesterdays low failed to penetrate the neckline of a head and shoulders and today backed further away. 

Not to say it cant turn around again though. But I've been noticing strength in the greenback (maybe orchestrated), as posted yesterday and am leaning to a bit of a recovery since Goldmans posted a good result yesterday and provided Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley are not too bad.

Hang in there Nyden. It'll come better mate. I promise... truely.


----------



## nikki (19 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

thanks whiskers and tronic72 for your views.

similarities with the august correction is amazing when you compare today's candle as well.

good luck everyone.


----------



## $20shoes (19 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm still concerned about the XAO though it does seem to be a resilient little bugger. Nonetheless, we have had a reasonably muted response on the DOW and S&P500 to the central bank's half a trillion dollar bailout that is in play for whoever needs salvation - what a Christams present!!!
Shouldn't the markets have rallied with more gusto on this news? If the market doesnt believe this is the answer, then the XAO will surely follow the S&P down further?

Apologies for the messy looking chart, but I've borrowed an analysis technique that is used by David Petch who does his own t/a for subscribers as well as posts to http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=David+Petch

The technique involves the use of multiple Bollingers to gauge major turning points. 

You can see that at (1) the XAO has reached unprecedented levels of volatility for this bull run, and warns of the potential for a intermediate top (note the distance between the upper and lower 55 day MAs (green bands). 

Also note that when the upper green band runs a lot higher than the price action, there has historically been a correction. I have pointed these out at "Top".

Note, also the long term stochastics breaking below 80 confirms our correction. 

You can also see that the August correction followed a "top". However, the lower BBs in this case came up to meet the price, allowing for a volatile and sharp correction. 

What we have now is different. We have a top that followed huge market perturbations. Our upper BBs are gently curving down now and the down leg has not waited for a squeeze with the lower green MA. It much more resembles the top put in May 06 but this time we have more bearish sentiment in the market. It almost looks like it is rolling out of a top and is ready to commence a down leg - I'm still skeptical about calling a top since the Aussie economy is bubbling along nicely. Still, very interested in what Jan-Feb will bring 

Note the Stochastics still show further falls are possible despite the strong support at these levels. 

One other concern from chart posted Whiskers. Note, in the August correction the ADX climbed up to about 42 indicating a strong move but getting to the overdone side. So far this time the ADX has only just now started turning up, so it potentially has more room to move on a downward correction.


----------



## Whiskers (19 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> I'm still concerned about the XAO though it does seem to be a resilient little bugger.
> 
> 
> It much more resembles the top put in May 06 but this time we have more bearish sentiment in the market. It almost looks like it is rolling out of a top and is ready to commence a down leg - I'm still skeptical about calling a top since the Aussie economy is bubbling along nicely. Still, very interested in what Jan-Feb will bring
> ...




I do agree with you $20shoes.

In the short term though I think 5 red candles in a row is getting a bit overdone. Unless it is the start of a wholesale crash which I don't see coming yet, I reckon we are due for a little recovery till the market works out whether it needs to go lower again.

I'm still inclined to agree with the EW's like wavepicker that about Feb will be a cruical time with the likelyhood if a correction were to occur it would be then.


----------



## wayneL (19 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> Note the Stochastics still show further falls are possible despite the strong support at these levels.




Notwithstanding that further falls are certainly possible, how does the stochastic show this? It's just a mathematical construct.


----------



## dhukka (19 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A simple observation from a non-chartist. Looking at the XAO and the major US indices, they have all put in lower highs and lower lows. At what point do you call a bear market?


----------



## chops_a_must (20 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> A simple observation from a non-chartist. Looking at the XAO and the major US indices, they have all put in lower highs and lower lows. At what point do you call a bear market?




I think it's pretty clear. This time around, the correction seems to have a completely different feel to it. There is a point of realisation here in Australia at least, that if a top 50 company can go belly up, than any can. And that of course means absolutely no premium paid at all on anything.

Property trusts and financials look to now be in a long term down trend. BHP and RIO have blown up and off on now dead merger/ takeover rumours. Energy is having counselling about it's personality problems. Energy retailers are downtrending. I just can't see new highs from here for a while. There is just nothing left there. I'm not saying it wont, but it would take something extraordinary to see us at all time highs any time soon.

What makes this correction different for mine, is that it wasn't coming off an all time high, it was coming off a lower high. It is more like a break down, rather than a dip. 

Perhaps the final nail in the coffin will be profit growth slowing in retail. But... trade it as you see it, as it comes etc. But to me, it will be a bit uphill trading long if the sectors themselves are downtrending.


----------



## willow (20 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A series of bearish patterns  for the newbies to observe. A pull back may stall at head and shoulders neckline or the down sloping line of the symetrical triangle or maybe neither but a good place to consider. Cheers


----------



## $20shoes (20 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Notwithstanding that further falls are certainly possible, how does the stochastic show this? It's just a mathematical construct.




WayneL, point taken as it is indeed just a lagging indicator. However, the main point I was trying to make was that the XAO is not necessarily oversold at these levels, as it has more obviously been in previous corrections when price came down to lower trendline.


----------



## wayneL (20 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> WayneL, point taken as it is indeed just a lagging indicator. However, the main point I was trying to make was that the XAO is not necessarily oversold at these levels, as it has more obviously been in previous corrections when price came down to lower trendline.




Cheers $20shoes,

Thanks for the clarification.


----------



## Nick Radge (20 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just to clarify my position regarding my last chart, that count was an alternate suggestion and is not the primary count I think headlines the market. For this to be valid we'd need to see 6700 breached again and with the wobbles being seen at present and lack of Santa's appearance I don't think too much upside is plausible. 

Below is what I have been running with for a number of months and suggests a return to the August lows. A break of those lows places us into bear market phase of which I think we will see a 1989 - 1994 repeat scenario. Copper, being a lead indicator for economic expansion, is breaking down through significant supports. Interest rates are rising and will soon be at an important level from an asset allocation perspective. 2007 has been a year of 'a few good stocks'. Remove those and its actually been a bad period. My 2c...







_

This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## austek (20 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

< "Spare me the mantra that the “fundamentals” are sound. Credit is the ultimate fundamental." >
                         --------------------------------
wayneL, your mantra reminds me of something I learnt during a Coxwain course.
the Captain of the 'Titanic' made his maiden speech 2 weeks before the Titanic sank -

"I have guided many ships in my 25 years as a Captain and frankly it has been a rather uneventful journey" .....and we were told that the Titanic was classified as 'fundamentally sound' days before it's final voyage.

Then I guess the ship would have had a chart room


----------



## hacheln_mice (21 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Below is what I have been running with for a number of months and suggests a return to the August lows. A break of those lows places us into bear market phase of which I think we will see a 1989 - 1994 repeat scenario. Copper, being a lead indicator for economic expansion, is breaking down through significant supports. Interest rates are rising and will soon be at an important level from an asset allocation perspective. 2007 has been a year of 'a few good stocks'. Remove those and its actually been a bad period. My 2c...




So true.  The rather obvious underperformance of the small caps suggests the market is held together by a few stocks.  Smokes and mirrors.


----------



## GreatPig (21 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If the XAO does fall back towards 5400, then it will well and truly have broken out of the channel it's been in since early 2003.

On a weekly chart, there's some bearish RSI divergence showing, which I think supports that possibility as well.

The blue line around 4300 at the moment is a longer term trend from after the '87 crash, and the red one around 3600 is the very base of the same trend. The slope of those trend lines is around 6.8% pa, compared to the 19% pa of the current channel.

GP


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



hacheln_mice said:


> So true.  The rather obvious underperformance of the small caps suggests the market is held together by a few stocks.  Smokes and mirrors.




Yep. There is just no momentum left in this market. Each rally has less and less to it in terms of the amount of stocks participating. BHP, CBA, WOW etc are fooling anyone that thinks the Bull is still running. Negative divergence grows everywhere you look.

The chart below is the 10 day Avg market breadth. Its been the same pattern since August last year. We get an broad oversold rally from a meltdown then each rally after that is with less and less stocks participating until we get a implosion again and then the pattern repeats.

Only good thing that can be said is every time we get down here we really hard. For a while


----------



## Whiskers (21 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Up a few points so far today. Looks like we might live to *bear* another day. 

Not expert with this, but it appears we have come back from the 50% mark in every leg up of the bull so far.


----------



## Logique (21 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nice piece of analysis Whiskers. The chart under would add weight to the supportiveness of that 50% fibonacci retracement level. The Bears hadn't ought to get too cocky just yet.


----------



## rub92me (21 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Yep. There is just no momentum left in this market. Each rally has less and less to it in terms of the amount of stocks participating. BHP, CBA, WOW etc are fooling anyone that thinks the Bull is still running. Negative divergence grows everywhere you look.
> 
> The chart below is the 10 day Avg market breadth. Its been the same pattern since August last year. We get an broad oversold rally from a meltdown then each rally after that is with less and less stocks participating until we get a implosion again and then the pattern repeats.
> 
> Only good thing that can be said is every time we get down here we really hard. For a while



Great chart trembling Hand!, gives a very refreshing new perspective on what's going on. What data source / software do you use to make these charts, or do you calculate it manually based on your standard EOD data?


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rub92me said:


> Great chart trembling Hand!, gives a very refreshing new perspective on what's going on. What data source / software do you use to make these charts, or do you calculate it manually based on your standard EOD data?




Thanks. It’s pretty surprising how little momentum is left in this market. If you are an index trader it doesn’t matter so much but if you are a stock picker playing on the long side is getting harder and harder.

I have EOD data in a MS Access database and run Queries that I plot in Excel.
I think it always pays to look beyond the way to top heavy Cap-weighted indexes.


----------



## hacheln_mice (21 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Nice piece of analysis Whiskers. The chart under would add weight to the supportiveness of that 50% fibonacci retracement level. The Bears hadn't ought to get too cocky just yet.




Who're you calling a bear? I'm always bullish on the stocks I own.


----------



## Awesomandy (22 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> if you are a stock picker playing on the long side is getting harder and harder.




I definitely agree with that. I generally keep track of around 20 - 30 largish stocks. They are more for personal entertainment rather than money making, and if someone asks me what's worth considering, I could give them a few suggestions. However, lately, I have ran out of such suggestions. There's really nothing worth buying given the current risks, unless we head into the more speculative end.


----------



## sassa (22 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Repeating the words of Alan Wood,"Merry Christmas and _caveat emptor."_


----------



## willow (24 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Trendline still intact on this XJO chart. The 34 week ema has seen a close below it again, the first being in August since prices rose above it at the beginning of the bull run in 2003.


----------



## willow (24 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

These extreme oversold readings of the ROC indicator marked by the arrows and corresponding with the vertical lines on the chart have the same thing in common. They occured when the XAO had been trending up and are more than 3 years away from any other extreme reading which is suggesting the market had changed it's stripes by this heavy fall in momentum. While most of these proved to be good trading opportunities [depending on ones time horizon] the market in all cases accept the most recent,[ as yet?], fell back to near or beyond the levels caused by the heavy fall in momentum, before being able to continue another uptrend. This is suggesting to me a move back to the August lows or beyond. Time will tell. 
Time to put the charts away and enjoy the family. Happy Xmas


----------



## Peakey (26 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Type A divergence showing.

The recent low over the last week, has not registered a lower low on the stochastic compared to the mid November lows.


----------



## Nyden (27 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Why are you all still on holiday? Christmas is over, get back into the markets! 

Really surprised at the lackluster gains today, base metals were way up, we had 2 days of Dow Gains that should have been facotred in (guess the yanks don't have an equiv of boxing day).

Guess the total lack of volume today explains as to why gains were modest  Everyone's still on holiday! Slackers


----------



## M34N (27 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Why are you all still on holiday? Christmas is over, get back into the markets!
> 
> Really surprised at the lackluster gains today, base metals were way up, we had 2 days of Dow Gains that should have been facotred in (guess the yanks don't have an equiv of boxing day).
> 
> Guess the total lack of volume today explains as to why gains were modest  Everyone's still on holiday! Slackers



Volumes too low to push the market much higher, look at BHP, only 5.6m traded today = _at best_ only half the normal rate. But looking at some stocks, like WPL, STO, NCM, volumes were lower but they were pushed still pretty high, with WPL closing at a day high +4%. Also note the very few buyers of MQG during the 4:00-4:10 close, it dropped some 1% at the close thanks to the little buying.

Don't expect much until around Jan 7th.


----------



## chops_a_must (28 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



willow said:


> Trendline still intact on this XJO chart. The 34 week ema has seen a close below it again, the first being in August since prices rose above it at the beginning of the bull run in 2003.



I know from your other chart, you are more cautious than this suggests. But I'll add my 2 cents worth anyway. There are a number of visual differences that seperate the last few months from all those other corrections so far. The August correction came off a rounded top. The first correction in this bull market to do so. All the others have been off parabolas almost.

The December correction was the first in this bull market that wasn't coming off an all time high. I think that is pretty significant. All of the worst corrections in history (from what I've seen anyway) come off highs that have failed to take out recent all time highs.


Nick Radge said:


> Just to clarify my position regarding my last chart, that count was an alternate suggestion and is not the primary count I think headlines the market. For this to be valid we'd need to see 6700 breached again and with the wobbles being seen at present and lack of Santa's appearance I don't think too much upside is plausible.
> 
> Below is what I have been running with for a number of months and suggests a return to the August lows. A break of those lows places us into bear market phase of which I think we will see a 1989 - 1994 repeat scenario. Copper, being a lead indicator for economic expansion, is breaking down through significant supports. Interest rates are rising and will soon be at an important level from an asset allocation perspective. 2007 has been a year of 'a few good stocks'. Remove those and its actually been a bad period. My 2c...



Whether or not we are in a bear market (I think we probably are, hell I'll claim to be the first calling it, after wayneL or someone did 3 years ago.), you've probably got to trade it as such. We've had a gap down through suppport (17/12) off highs, which hasn't even looked like being filled. So to me, the market looks to have confirmed a breakdown and it's just a signal to get short. I think for the time being at least, yes, we are in a short term bear market at the very least.


----------



## CFD (28 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nice post chops.


----------



## Nyden (28 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Damn Bhutto, if the US markets hadn't gone & had a mass sell off we would have had a good day. How can the huge rise in commodity prices over the last few sessions be totally ignored? Every single base metal is sitting in the green right now, it's not like it's "news" or anything that the entire region there isn't stable

I understand the whole concept of risk aversion, just feels like we're getting screwed here, is all  Alright, rant over


Obviously this whole Bhutto mess has led to panic/risk aversion selling that really isn't based on any fundamentals other than the chance of turmoil?
....Which wouldn't even really affect many stocks here directly?

Very selfish of Bhutto really, these countries should put their chaos on the back-burner until the credit crunch sorts itself out! ...Obviously joking


----------



## willow (29 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Reading another article by Tim Wood to-day. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm He mentions 4 year cycles from one bear market low to the next and that the Dow is in the second longest cycle since 1896. I put to-gether a monthly chart using my very limited knowledge of these 4 year cycles. I'm going on appearance and time in this chart and the limited information that one gets from a small article. My data only goes back to 1980. I nearly wasn't going to post this chart being out of my usual reference but here goes. The point mainly I suppose is that it is no surprise at this moment in time for a correction. I think the average on these times om this chart is about 50 months at the moment.

Chops A Must, you bring up a very significant bit of analysis and worth more than 2 cents. I mainly posted the chart with the 34 week ema just to show a general picture. I noticed you re-posted Nick's chart. Seeing Nick's impressive charts and getting his view on this forum is a big bonus. I don't know much about Elliotwave and leave that to the experts like Nick Radge. Looks like the technical evidence building. Cheers.


----------



## willow (30 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For those interested about Dow theory, if you are still around Niki. The article by Tim Wood in my post above also mentions how "some analysts use the Utilities in Dow theory", and because of this I'd say a different possible outcome is seen at times. According to Tim Wood the Utility sector came into being after Dow's death and is not a part of Dow theory. Only the relationship between the Industrials and Transport are used.  For those who didn't get to read my first post, here is the link on Dow theory again. He also adds other relationships to back up his analysis further.http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wood/2007/1214.html


----------



## willow (30 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry but I wrote a couple of the times wrong  on the monthly chart. Here is the chart with more the proper times within reason. It still averages out at 50 months so far. My brain gets a bit bamboozled doing figures for to long. Cheers


----------



## treefrog (30 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CFD said:


> Nice post chops.




agrees wif CFD

and while its a long time since treefrog went to chart school, he seems to remember something about taking care not to place much weight on trendlines over long periods of time 10+ years unless they were on a semi-log price scale to bring prices over different decades into some relativity


----------



## Uncle Festivus (30 December 2007)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Whether or not we are in a bear market (I think we probably are, hell I'll claim to be the first calling it, after wayneL or someone did 3 years ago.), you've probably got to trade it as such. We've had a gap down through suppport (17/12) off highs, which hasn't even looked like being filled. So to me, the market looks to have confirmed a breakdown and it's just a signal to get short. I think for the time being at least, yes, we are in a short term bear market at the very least.




How would a double top on the monthly S&P500 look then - a bit bearish? If the ASX20 start to look sick......this bull game is over?






willow said:


> For those interested about Dow theory, if you are still around Niki. The article by Tim Wood in my post above also mentions how "some analysts use the Utilities in Dow theory", and because of this I'd say a different possible outcome is seen at times. According to Tim Wood the Utility sector came into being after Dow's death and is not a part of Dow theory. Only the relationship between the Industrials and Transport are used. For those who didn't get to read my first post, here is the link on Dow theory again. He also adds other relationships to back up his analysis further.http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wood/2007/1214.html




....... FedEx Corp., *the second-largest* U.S. package-delivery company, reported a 6.3 percent drop in quarterly profit because of softer demand for freight shipments and higher fuel costs. 
``We see challenging near-term economic trends,'' Fred Smith, chief executive officer, said in a statement on Dec. 20.


----------



## willow (1 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We are above the 38% level and nearing the 50% level on this pullback from it's most recent high. Note the dominant candle, (dominant candles must have high volume as apposed to a long candle). Anybody who is a keen candle fan will know that the open close and middle part of these candles can often be areas of support or resistance, price is near this level. We also have a 26 day ema, notice it has acted as support and resistance several times on this chart. And I won't forget to mention the head and shoulders neckline. After observing and trading these patterns over the years I have found they will usually do one of two things, either drop like a stone from around here, after spending a short amount of time near the neckline, and that time could be slightly above or below the neckline or may start ranging in that area for a while before heading in either direction. There is also an internal trendline which I haven't added where the price is now sitting under.
I used to post charts using internal trendlines for I have found them valuable at times but if someone feels like being a critic they can't resist to reply about such a line and I didn't want to clutter the chart with every thing I see. All charts in log scale. Cheers

Uncle Festivus, Thanks for your reply and top chart. I have to admit I look at the monthlies sometimes even though I trade off the dailies, would also like to  add 1 hour and 5 minute charts to the collection, one day. Cheers


----------



## Sean K (3 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Start of 5th leg down EW ers?


----------



## willow (3 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Santa may have come after all, he,s just circled the globe from the other end this time.

 1-Stall, 2-Fall, 3-and nothing small, that,s all. 

I believe number one has been achieved and looks like no2 also, now we want 3. Cheers.


----------



## wavepicker (3 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In the following thread post #93

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6953&page=5

looked at the XAO from an EW perspective with 2 probable Ending Diagonal patterns. This suggested one final leg up(not necessarily to new highs) to suggest this pattern had completed.

The date range for this cycle to complete was 10/01/08- 31/03/08.

Just looking at the DJIA it too is tracing out a similar pattern that would look more convincing with one last rally toward 14000. If this happened it would most likely be an abc leg up.

A break below the last low of 12707 pts would suggest the Ending Diagonal is already completed and the market is very bearish and that last leg up to 14000 will not happen. So if we are going to have low for a rally for the pattern to complete it would have to find support in the next 2 trading days.

Cheers


----------



## Kauri (3 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Trying to keep it simple.. (not too hard for me : ) ... 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Trader Paul (3 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Hi folks,

XAO/XJO astroanalysis ... both use the same time cycles and 
the critical dates for 2008 should be, as follows:

        07012008 ... minor and positive

        14012008 ... significant and positive 

     18-21012008 ... minor and positive news

 1801-08022008 ... an underlying negative cycle, for
                           hitechs and biotechs, particularly???

     06-08022008 ... 3 cycles to bring positive news/moves.

     03-06032008 ... news should trigger a STRONG move

        07032008 ... negative spotlight on XJO

     25-26032008 ... 2 cycles with negative news

     04-07042008 ... positive spotlight on XJO ... 

        11042008 ... positive news driving now

        14042008 ... difficult cycle here

        21042008 ... positive cycle ... forex-driven ???

        25042008 ... difficult news expected = flat trading???

More later .....

happy days

 paul



=====


----------



## nikki (3 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



willow said:


> Santa may have come after all, he,s just circled the globe from the other end this time.
> 
> 1-Stall, 2-Fall, 3-and nothing small, that,s all.
> 
> I believe number one has been achieved and looks like no2 also, now we want 3. Cheers.




hi willow, thanks for the earlier ref to the dow theory. i had read the guy you had referred to but his assessment uses the intraday low as confirmation of a bearish move on the DJIA. a lot of his arguments rides on that observation!

i tried to make sense of your comments above and i need more help - do not understand santa talk at the best of times.  

thanks to you and wavepicker for your charts. i appreciate reading your different perspectives.


----------



## willow (3 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nikki said:


> hi willow, thanks for the earlier ref to the dow theory. i had read the guy you had referred to but his assessment uses the intraday low as confirmation of a bearish move on the DJIA. a lot of his arguments rides on that observation!
> 
> i tried to make sense of your comments above and i need more help - do not understand santa talk at the best of times.
> 
> thanks to you and wavepicker for your charts. i appreciate reading your different perspectives.




Hi Nikki, I think you meant to write that he uses the closing price to pick the low and not the intra day low, I,m not sure. But I think the reason he uses the closing price is Dow himself probably did, I believe line charts were more popular then, than they are now. This is all I can think of. In any case if Tim has done all his other analysis going back a hundred years on Dow theory using closing prices and has come up with the odds of 10 to 1 for the DJIA to  now see a significant decline then I think it doesn't matter as long as he was consistant and stayed with the closing prices. I have not the resources to check it out myself but if I had I think it would be worth doing.

The Santa comment was just about the bullish rally most of us expect to see this time of year called the Santa rally but like everything else in the stockmarket it can do something else instead. I have heard the odds are high for this rally to happen at around Xmas. I was just making a joke to insinuate the shorts may be seeing Santa this year.

Because of other peoples analysis such as Wavepickers and being on the wrong side of the market many times, as happens with most of us. I try not to marry an opinion, in case Wavepicker is right and that Santa might come for the bulls after all. If I don't have a strong opinion I am better prepared to get out quick if I am wrong. It is good that an Elliotwave practitioner or a Fundamentalist or  people like me who are more orientated to indicators and whoever else, can all have differing opinions and make a living from trading at the same time. There is obviously something else at work here. 
My expectation is to see the head and shoulders pattern to reach it's measured target but in the end we can only take what the market will give us. 
And thanks for your appreciation of our charts. It's good to here this at times. Cheers.


----------



## chops_a_must (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Just looking at the DJIA it too is tracing out a similar pattern that would look more convincing with one last rally toward 14000. If this happened it would most likely be an abc leg up.
> 
> A break below the last low of 12707 pts would suggest the Ending Diagonal is already completed and the market is very bearish and that last leg up to 14000 will not happen. So if we are going to have low for a rally for the pattern to complete it would have to find support in the next 2 trading days.
> 
> Cheers




Looks like we are going to be there sooner rather than later WP. Rejections of the December lows from the DOW, which I have been a broken record about, and now from the S&P as well, points to something pretty nasty I feel. Negative Novembers through January historically point to shocking future market behaviour apparently.

Just furious I haven't been able to trade off the analysis (so far) I've been spruiking here recently. Just about every market met my parameters for massive shorts tonight.  Ah well... at least I know they work!


----------



## wavepicker (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Looks like we are going to be there sooner rather than later WP. Rejections of the December lows from the DOW, which I have been a broken record about, and now from the S&P as well, points to something pretty nasty I feel. Negative Novembers through January historically point to shocking future market behaviour apparently.
> 
> Just furious I haven't been able to trade off the analysis (so far) I've been spruiking here recently. Just about every market met my parameters for massive shorts tonight.  Ah well... at least I know they work!




You might be right.  I have not taken any positions long or short in the DJI or XAO, have been waiting instead. 

The bullish scenario still has not been invalidated and if there is any chance of this happening then it must start next week and the lower converging trendline on the DJI chart will act as support together with a time cycle low which comes into play between now and tuesday. Even so, any rally that will eventuate will probabaly carry below the previous highs.

So for now waiting till next week to make decisions 

Cheers


----------



## slix_88 (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hmm, considering list nights Bearish attitude in the US markets after reports on weaker than expected job growths and a rise in unemplyment...would anyone say the aussie indexes are in trouble on monday?

Considering the sharp declines in the NASDAQ (~3.8%) and DJIA (~2%), the XAO is also in doubt of a sharp fall...

However, would the effect be that great considering how the jobless growth is America's problem, compared to the low unemployment we have in AUS? I personally am going for a flight to safety and am going to re-enter after everything has bottomed out.


----------



## M34N (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



slix_88 said:


> Hmm, considering list nights Bearish attitude in the US markets after reports on weaker than expected job growths and a rise in unemplyment...would anyone say the aussie indexes are in trouble on monday?
> 
> Considering the sharp declines in the NASDAQ (~3.8%) and DJIA (~2%), the XAO is also in doubt of a sharp fall...
> 
> However, would the effect be that great considering how the jobless growth is America's problem, compared to the low unemployment we have in AUS? I personally am going for a flight to safety and am going to re-enter after everything has bottomed out.



SPI shows -141 points, which is -2.2%, suggesting that would be the kind of fall we're in for on Monday. I have a feeling though it may be worse, lower commodity prices, which has been the only thing really lifting the market lately, have gone down, and I would tip something closer to -160 points at the least, maybe -200 if the sellers really move in. The bad Centro news after the close yesterday, and the NAB/ANZ lifting their lending rates without the RBA doing it for them will only add to the bad news come Monday.

I think it's clear from here, if there is no big rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in the US, at least 0.5%, then the only way for the market will be down. The US is clearly heading for a big downturn, possible recession, so a big cut is needed, and that will be the only thing that will lift these markets. Until then, I don't see much reason to buy in, maybe some speculative gold/oil stocks, which will spike on a lower US dollar leading to the next FOMC meeting.


----------



## dhukka (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> I think it's clear from here, if there is no big rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in the US, at least 0.5%, then the only way for the market will be down. The US is clearly heading for a big downturn, possible recession, so a big cut is needed, and that will be the only thing that will lift these markets. Until then, I don't see much reason to buy in, maybe some speculative gold/oil stocks, which will spike on a lower US dollar leading to the next FOMC meeting.




I'm surprised that people think Fed Funds rate cuts will turn the markets around over any period of time except in the very short term. The Fed has cut 100 bps so far, what has that accomplished for the direction for the stockmarket? What did it accomplish in 2001-02? 

The chart below shows that shortly after the Fed lowered rates for the first time on January 3rd 2001 the S&P500 staged a short rally before falling precipitously through Feb & Mar. By the time the S&P500 had rallied back to the *1315* level in May 2001 the Fed had cut interest rates 250 basis points. The S&P500 then fell off a cliff to the end of August rallied again in October holding up into early 2002 before completely rolling over by Jul 2002 staying depressed right through until June 2003. By the time the Fed was done they had cut 500 basis points in 2 and half years and the S&P500 had fallen almost *50%*.    

Not saying that this time will be the same but just pointing out that Fed rate cuts don't have a good track record in preventing stock market declines.


----------



## vishalt (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Not saying that this time will be the same but just pointing out that Fed rate cuts don't have a good track record in preventing stock market declines.



Do you have analysis from any other timeframes?

I think its also important to keep in mind those cuts happened when there were a multiple of things: NASDAQ Crash, 9/11, and a confidence shock in corporate America (Enron/Worldcom)


----------



## M34N (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> I'm surprised that people think Fed Funds rate cuts will turn the markets around over any period of time except in the very short term. The Fed has cut 100 bps so far, what has that accomplished for the direction for the stockmarket? What did it accomplish in 2001-02?




I still believe the market _can_ go higher and continue this bull run we've had, but it will take some serious action from the FOMC to do so. They can head off a recession by lowering rates and encouraging employment, lending, housing prices, etc, but it's going to take time for these to flow through and for confidence to be restored. The latest employment figures from the US is very disturbing in my opinion, and if nothing drastic is done, things will get much worse. Business confidence has fallen, consumer spending is falling, business spending is down, employment lower, lower housing prices, tighter lending practices, higher number of defaults - the writing is on the wall.

But you're right, a rate cut will mostly lead to a short term rally, but the actions of the past few rate cuts should flow through soon, and that should hopefully help restore some confidence in the market, reduce tensions with the credit crisis and help prevent a recession.

But like vishalt just said before, 2001-02 was a very volatile period and a different time with a different set of circumstances. Terrorism, global security and corporate collapses can't be solved with reduced lending rates. The _majority_ of problems occurring now can be solved with a FOMC rate cut, but again, only time will tell.


----------



## dhukka (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> Do you have analysis from any other timeframes?
> 
> I think its also important to keep in mind those cuts happened when there were a multiple of things: NASDAQ Crash, 9/11, and a confidence shock in corporate America (Enron/Worldcom)




Granted every recession and downturn is characterized by different circumstances. The last recession saw stocks at extremely high multiples however no housing bubble and no significant slowdown in consumer spending Incidentally the Fed had done the majority of their cutting (350bps) prior to 9/11. 

The early 90's recession was not half as bad for the stockmarket as 2001 although the first *150bps* of cuts had little effect.   

The Fed began cutting interest rates in *July 1990*, by October of that year the S&P was *-20%* lower, the Fed had only cut twice (50bps) by this time. By January 1991 the Fed had cut *150 bps*, the S&P was still *-16%* lower than July 1990. 

In February the S&P rallied back to the previous high in July and then traded sideways for the bulk of the year finally rallying in December 1992 to a level about *10%* higher than July 1990.  The Fed had cut *425* bps by that time. 

The Fed stopped cutting by Sep 1992, *525* bps in total, the S&P had traded sideways for 9 months still about *10 -11%* above July 1990.


----------



## chops_a_must (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> I think its also important to keep in mind those cuts happened when there were a multiple of things: NASDAQ Crash, 9/11, and a confidence shock in corporate America (Enron/Worldcom)




We have a housing crash, you can replace Enron/ Worldcom with Bear Stearns this time around (with others sure to come in this down turn). All you need now is a freak political event, and it's the same scenario.


----------



## dhukka (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> I still believe the market _can_ go higher and continue this bull run we've had, but it will take some serious action from the FOMC to do so. They can head off a recession by lowering rates and encouraging employment, lending, housing prices, etc, but it's going to take time for these to flow through and for confidence to be restored. The latest employment figures from the US is very disturbing in my opinion, and if nothing drastic is done, things will get much worse. Business confidence has fallen, consumer spending is falling, business spending is down, employment lower, lower housing prices, tighter lending practices, higher number of defaults - the writing is on the wall.
> 
> But you're right, a rate cut will mostly lead to a short term rally, but the actions of the past few rate cuts should flow through soon, and that should hopefully help restore some confidence in the market, reduce tensions with the credit crisis and help prevent a recession.
> 
> But like vishalt just said before, 2001-02 was a very volatile period and a different time with a different set of circumstances. Terrorism, global security and corporate collapses can't be solved with reduced lending rates. The _majority_ of problems occurring now can be solved with a FOMC rate cut, but again, only time will tell.




IMHO practically none of the current problems can be solved by Fed easing. Whatever the Fed does from here will be too little too late. The US has never avoided recession when the unemployment rate rose *0.5%*. After yesterday the US unemployment rate has risen *0.6%* from it's trough.  

Yes the Fed can address liquidity concerns but liiquidity is not the problem, it's solvency. Home prices are falling, with the largest whack of mortgage resets yet to come. Commerical Real Estate is starting to tip over. Consumers are stretched and now defaults on consumer loans of all types are rising. Manufacturing is contracting, corporate earnings are negative. The Fed is now reaping the consequences of pursuing an asymmetric approach to monetary policy and asset bubbles.


----------



## willow (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Re-posting the chart I posted on the 17th of december showing the RSI signals where they topped out from under their trendlines in line with the market topping out. While the RSI was diverging with price it had also  formed a head and shoulders pattern in most of these situations, and was actually pulling back to the neck-line of the head and shoulders when the market topped out. 

I have now added the  decline times and the percentage falls from the market high to the low and a vertical line at the end of the chart, where I had pointed out on the 17th this latest signal. I know these times may be irrelevant to what to expect this time because of other observations such as the steeper rise as like the one we had in 1987, where a 50% decline was recorded. But they are of interest. This rise has not been as steep as 87 but is steep all the same. Only a 10% decline reached at this stage.

I posted this chart before it had become obvious that the latest high had failed on the weekly chart. I suggested the next day after posting it in a reply to a poster that it is a good time to step aside and in a sense prepare to short. I did both of these because of my analysis of this chart, and other charts I posted in the daily time-frames, and because I also noticed it had become increasingly difficult to pull a dollar out of long positions. And of course I used Tim Wood's Dow theory analysis. 

The day after I posted the latest daily chart on this thread ( 1st jan p96 ). I loaded up with shorts expecting the 50% fib and the mid section of the dominant candle to prove strong resistance with the neck-line of the head and shoulders pattern, I added to these shorts on the following day when my expectations were confirmed, and getting in at the right price on that day was not an easy task, I missed at least half planned trades but managed to enter some of those yesterday. The day on the 2nd when the market rose throughout the day proved the best time to purchase and if I was wrong i was able to have all my stops close by. All this commitment without knowing a thing about fundamentals and nearly as much about Elliotwave or anything else, just plain technical analysis, patterns and indicators and using different time-frames. And don't get me wrong I am not knocking these disciplines. I just believe there is some valuable stuff here for those who choose to learn it.

I have also put in the divergence line (in orange ) on the RSI at the end of the chart. When I see a steep divergence like that I never ever ignore it. Remember this is a smoothed long term momentum indicator, making it a more meaningful signal. These steep divergences can prove to be powerful signals. 

As this market goes down I will take profit along the way and not hang around long for any powerful bounces and try to re-enter again at some stage. Cheers.


----------



## insider (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



willow said:


> Re-posting the chart I posted on the 17th of december showing the RSI signals where they topped out from under their trendlines in line with the market topping out. While the RSI was diverging with price it had also  formed a head and shoulders pattern in most of these situations, and was actually pulling back to the neck-line of the head and shoulders when the market topped out.
> 
> I have now added the  decline times and the percentage falls from the market high to the low and a vertical line at the end of the chart, where I had pointed out on the 17th this latest signal. I know these times may be irrelevant to what to expect this time because of other observations such as the steeper rise as like the one we had in 1987, where a 50% decline was recorded. But they are of interest. This rise has not been as steep as 87 but is steep all the same. Only a 10% decline reached at this stage.
> 
> ...




Hey Willow I appreciate the research you do. Its pretty good that you showed  that typically there is an average of a 16.5% decline every time within a two month period regardless of a following bear market. For us to reach that 16.5% decline the All Ords needs to fall about 400 points  to about 5900 points... Given the lack of good news coming out it is quite achievable. And Monday is still yet to respond to D. Jones' Friday night smashing...

The question maybe now; Is there going to be a Bear Market to follow?


----------



## vishalt (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I agree, hats off to willow for some very nice research. 

But past rate cut results might not necessarily indicate what happens now, and then there is still the possibility of Australia/Asia rising independent of the US due to the demand from China, I mean we tanked the NASDAQ crash exceptionally well compared to other stock markets. 

Lets hope for all our sake that the US growth numbers somehow come out good!


----------



## dhukka (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> I agree, hats off to willow for some very nice research.
> 
> But past rate cut results might not necessarily indicate what happens now, and then there is still the possibility of Australia/Asia rising independent of the US due to the demand from China, I mean we tanked the NASDAQ crash exceptionally well compared to other stock markets.




Ahh the decoupling theory that the Chinese Government itself doesn't even believe. 



> Lets *hope* for all our sake that the US growth numbers somehow come out good!




There it is again, hope springs eternal, twice in one night, Alexander Pope would be proud.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks willow

The monthly XAO back to 1980 doesn't exactly fill one with confidence. 

RSI on top

gg


----------



## numbercruncher (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ahh, a little story of  " Hope "


My Scottish Grandmothers family motto was " Spero Meliora " or " I _Hope_ for better things ".

In 1557 The Clan Johnstone burnt the building in which the most important members of her family were inside and slaughtered anyone who tried to escape. In one blow her once powerful Clan was almost wiped out.


Beware of placing to much faith in hope 

I guess the moral of this little tale is to not put all your eggs in one basket, or in this case all your relatives in one building


----------



## vishalt (5 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Ahh the decoupling theory that the Chinese Government itself doesn't even believe.



Please don't assume I said decoupling, I meant specifically that our resource stocks continue upwards due to solid demand from BRIC economies.


----------



## Awesomandy (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> I think its also important to keep in mind those cuts happened when there were a multiple of things: NASDAQ Crash, 9/11, and a confidence shock in corporate America (Enron/Worldcom)




I tend to look at the current events in this way:
1. Instead of the tech wreck, we now have the sub prime problem.
2. we most likely won't have another 9/11 (hopefully, we'll never have to go throught something like this ever again)... but rather than thinking of it as the cause, I like to think of it as the catalyst. Most of the problems with the financial markets at that time were created before 9/11 happened.
3. Confidence shock in corporates. Every time the economy takes a turn to the south, there will be companies going bankrupt, and, unfortunately, I think it will be the same this time round. This year, the most at risk will be the financial sector. We have already seen a few victims e.g. Rams, Centro, and I would think that there will be more companies going down the same path - to oblivion.

I think that dropping interest rates is only delaying on the inevitable - zero or negative growth of the economy while the problems flush/fix themselves out.


----------



## vishalt (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> I tend to look at the current events in this way:
> 1. Instead of the tech wreck, we now have the sub prime problem.
> 2. we most likely won't have another 9/11 (hopefully, we'll never have to go throught something like this ever again)... but rather than thinking of it as the cause, I like to think of it as the catalyst. Most of the problems with the financial markets at that time were created before 9/11 happened.
> 3. Confidence shock in corporates. Every time the economy takes a turn to the south, there will be companies going bankrupt, and, unfortunately, I think it will be the same this time round. This year, the most at risk will be the financial sector. We have already seen a few victims e.g. Rams, Centro, and I would think that there will be more companies going down the same path - to oblivion.
> ...



That's a good point!


----------



## nizar (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks willow
> 
> The monthly XAO back to 1980 doesn't exactly fill one with confidence.
> 
> ...




Yes point taken.
BUT take a look at that the price action on that chart and tell me what you see.
Look at an even longer term chart (say, 100 years) of the stockmarket, and tell me what you see.

Well here's what I see. Corrective moves generally last 2,3,4,5 years, BUT over time, the market *ALWAYS* goes up.


----------



## vishalt (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Yes point taken.
> the market *ALWAYS* goes up.



Is that so? 







Take a look at that abomination ^^ a.k.a Japan's 225 Nikkei average. 

Imagine you held those blue-ship shares of a country who had once a "world model" of an economy, 17 years past that and you still have a stock market that's nearly 26,000 points down from that day. And joy for those folks still holding as Japan as on the verge of ANOTHER recession. 

Ofcourse maybe in another 20 years it might finally get back up, or maybe not, but geez, long wait, I guess they've already passed those shares onto their kids or grandkids though.

Even the major Euro markets (FTSE, Dax) haven't broken past their all-time highs since the tech bubble burst!

But I'm guessing they'll just take a LOT more time and really - who wouldn't be frustrated at waiting for those to get back lol


----------



## nizar (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> Is that so?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I meant XAO.


----------



## chops_a_must (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> I meant XAO.




Mmmm... world markets, including Australia's, are much more like Japan's in the 80s than ever before.

I can look at a chart and say the XAO ALWAYS goes down as well.


----------



## Awesomandy (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> Take a look at that abomination ^^ a.k.a Japan's 225 Nikkei average.




I wonder if there is some sort of an accumulation index as well? If there is one, I still very much doubt it would be above the high set in the 80s, but it would be interesting to have a look at.


----------



## willow (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks for the positive feed-back people and Garpul gumnut for posting the 1987 event. It certainly makes you wonder. Here is a link to a website I check out regularly for their short term veiw of the market. These guys are expecting a big move soon. It will be interesting to see what happens now, there is clearly excitement in the market place. Cheers.
http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp


----------



## sam76 (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> Is that so?
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Yes, but the Japanese market more thean QUADRUPELED in only 5 YEARS

Unsustainable in anyones language.


----------



## nizar (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Mmmm... world markets, including Australia's, are much more like Japan's in the 80s than ever before.
> 
> I can look at a chart and say the XAO ALWAYS goes down as well.




My point was that in the long term, the XAO has always gone up.
Look at a 50 year or 100 year chart.

If you can look at a long term chart of the XAO and show me how it always goes down, please do. It would be news to me  

And our market, DID NOT quadruple in 5 years the way Japan did 
Neither did any other world market except maybe China, So.....
MMMMMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......


----------



## chops_a_must (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> If you can look at a long term chart of the XAO and show me how it always goes down, please do. It would be news to me



After 87, after 2001, after August this year. At some point, it always goes down.


----------



## nizar (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> After 87, after 2001, after August this year. At some point, it always goes down.




Yeh, but for 2,3,4,5 years, then back up again, which is what I said in my initial post about this whole topic.

Anyway, i think we will just agree to disagree at this point.


----------



## tech/a (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm with Nizar on this one.

But hey we could have that 1 in 100 yr event!
This is only to Y2000!!---gets better!


----------



## >Apocalypto< (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> My point was that in the long term, the XAO has always gone up.
> Look at a 50 year or 100 year chart.
> 
> If you can look at a long term chart of the XAO and show me how it always goes down, please do. It would be news to me




Totally agree with you Nizar, it may move down in the short term on those charts, like for a year or two but the overall trend is up. that is as plain as day to see!

when u look at the 87 crash now, it looks rather small in the overall picture.

*Tech* great chart, I was looking for something exactly like that but I had no luck in finding it for free.


----------



## numbercruncher (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*





Look how many years after 87' it took to reach the same high.

Would'nt want to be geared in a similar situation now would we


----------



## lioness (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> Is that so?
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Vishalt,

That is just being silly to compare the XAO to the Nikkei - it is like comparing a pitbull to a sausage dog, totally different animals and breeds.

Please - you can do better than argue this.


----------



## treefrog (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I'm with Nizar on this one.
> 
> But hey we could have that 1 in 100 yr event!
> This is only to Y2000!!---gets better!




at last, someone posts an LT chart with the value on a log scale

relevant to state that the value (cost) of a $1 share 100 years ago would cost in today's momey $25

the current discussion on whether the ozzie market goes up or down is nonsense for a number of reasons
1. anyone suggesting that the posts saying it goes down meant it always and continuously goes down is deliberately trying to misrepresent
2. similarly for the contrary view

the current 5 yr run on the ozzie market is an exceptional bull run and anyone who thinks it won't correct is obviously still attending high school


----------



## vishalt (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



lioness said:


> Vishalt,
> 
> That is just being silly to compare the XAO to the Nikkei - it is like comparing a pitbull to a sausage dog, totally different animals and breeds.
> 
> Please - you can do better than argue this.



How? I think it's an improbable yet realistic scenario for any stock market... I'd agree it was a bit silly if I mentioned the NASDAQ which is tech dominated, but the companies in the Nikkei 225 are pretty big entities and very diversified. However at the time there was a huge property bubble in Japan, I don't think we're in a commodities bubble as China and India are truly industralising and that it's a long term process and our companies have very realistic valuations.


----------



## barrett (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I hope this isn't off topic, & I am no technician, but.. this 8-month rounding top that has formed in the dow looks bearish in the short term.. from what I have seen the rounding tops are fairly reliable formations.  If we look at that great chart that willow posted, it suggests that we are not looking at a catastrophe here, certainly not with this dovish fed... but maybe a further fall in the dow and in the XAO by association, in the short term.  And given the currently gloomy outlook among US stock market timing newsletters (currently only 28% long according to the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index).. the buying opportunity will probably come sooner than most will be ready for.
cheers barrett


----------



## nizar (6 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I'm with Nizar on this one.
> 
> But hey we could have that 1 in 100 yr event!
> This is only to Y2000!!---gets better!




Thanks for the chart tech, I have been looking for that the whole weekend!


----------



## chops_a_must (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Yeh, but for 2,3,4,5 years, then back up again, which is what I said in my initial post about this whole topic.
> 
> Anyway, i think we will just agree to disagree at this point.




I think you missed the humour/ academic point I was making. 

You can look at a chart, cut it up, say it always goes up, and always goes down, selecting what you want to see. They are mostly the two directions it moves in the long term. So if markets will always go up, and will always go down, you are left with the ways in which you have to trade.

Personally, I was just reacting to the statement that "it ALWAYS" goes up. When you take into account inflation, it is clear that markets definitely do not always go up. Oil and gold being two examples. Past events/ data certainly don't rule out the possibility or probability of future outcomes. After all, you don't know where you are on the die roll, or coin flip, within the distribution. Law of large numbers and all that jazz...


----------



## theasxgorilla (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> We have a housing crash, you can replace Enron/ Worldcom with Bear Stearns this time around (with others sure to come in this down turn). All you need now is a freak political event, and it's the same scenario.




I wonder if you refer to 911 here Chops?  Curiously it actually occured halfway through the bear market and managed to bottom it for almost 9 months.  The London bombings saw new all-time-highs.  The risk of a freak political event is ever present...why stop speculating now???


----------



## hacheln_mice (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's some charts with some squiggly lines drawn on.

Draw your own conclusions please.

Sidenote: Perhaps the small cap index paints a clearer picture of the Aussie market conditions.


----------



## Whiskers (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't see any signs of mass sell offs yet. I see buyers lowering their bids but not a lot of sellers jumping yet. If you ignore a few financials and big resource stocks the rest of the market probably isn't all that bad.

Anyone see it different?


----------



## >Apocalypto< (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I don't see any signs of mass sell offs yet. I see buyers lowering their bids but not a lot of sellers jumping yet. If you ignore a few financials and big resource stocks the rest of the market probably isn't all that bad.
> 
> Anyone see it different?




XAO  	6262.7 		-122.7	-1.9% 

that's a healthy little bout of profit taking....... 

Rest of the market see attachment....


----------



## Lucky_Country (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think the market is getting sick of bad news from US and has already factored in a recession so anything but a recession is viewed as a positive.
I think some stocks have reached their low and unless they come out with individual bad news they aint going lower.
Now all that being said if China and India were too slow that then may have a more negative impact but read a post on bloomberg today staing India growing at 9% and 2008 is going too be a bumper year for growth there


----------



## Sean K (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> I think the market is getting sick of bad news from US and has already factored in a recession so anything but a recession is viewed as a positive.
> I think some stocks have reached their low and unless they come out with individual bad news they aint going lower.
> Now all that being said if China and India were too slow that then may have a more negative impact but read a post on bloomberg today staing India growing at 9% and 2008 is going too be a bumper year for growth there



This is a interesting point Lucky_Country. As we know, the market is a forward looking beast, but with what information, and how far? How much fear and greed is factored into the long term funnymentals? The point about whether a recession is factored in is important, and it probably is, but how deep? And, does recession in the US precipitate a world recession, or is it just a sentimental effect? With all the 'information' that may or may not be correct, due in large part to  Hogwart's Accounting Principles, who the heck knows exactly where the world stands funnymentally? I resort to Nizar's long term XAO chart which shows the market trending long term UP. Short to medium term corrections present opportunities for those not putting their eggs in one little basket.


----------



## treefrog (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> I think the market is getting sick of bad news from US and has already factored in a recession so anything but a recession is viewed as a positive.
> I think some stocks have reached their low and unless they come out with individual bad news they aint going lower.
> Now all that being said if China and India were too slow that then may have a more negative impact but read a post on bloomberg today staing India growing at 9% and 2008 is going too be a bumper year for growth there



Yep, good points idgehuh (hard to pronounce)

Are we beginning to release uncle sam's wall st coat-tails?


----------



## the barry (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> I think the market is getting sick of bad news from US and has already factored in a recession so anything but a recession is viewed as a positive.
> I think some stocks have reached their low and unless they come out with individual bad news they aint going lower.
> Now all that being said if China and India were too slow that then may have a more negative impact but read a post on bloomberg today staing India growing at 9% and 2008 is going too be a bumper year for growth there




I agree.

It's also important to note that the state of the US economy is reflective of poor management rarther than being a reflection of world markets. If the sub prime mortgage issue wsa taken out and America didn't have the Irag expenditures on its sheets we may be talking about how good a shape the world markets are at the moment and let the bulls run.

Large growth in Russia, India and China should mean an overall healthy market. Strong overseas economy's may mean that america picks up some strength and gains some stimulation in manafacturing/employment due to lower purchase prices due to a weaker US dollar.


----------



## Lucky_Country (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think the economies of China and India are far greater than the size of the US and most of there demand is too feed the homegrown growth not all but some of it is US related.
Now the US plus EU now thats a big economy factor but again the growth of China India Russia Brasil far outweighs the combination of US and EU.
China the biggest urabanisation the world has ever seen.
India burgeoning middle class want good standards of living with modern infastructure.
World growth is basically shifting EU and US will not match the pace of Asian growth and has reach saturation point.
Oh by the way Japans growth died years ago !


----------



## numbercruncher (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

US 9 trillion dollar consumer economy, China 1 trillion dollar consumer economy.

The average wage in China is about 2pc of the average wage in the US. I dont see a boom in Ipods and Plasmas in the developing world anytime soon.

Decoupling is a untried "theory".






> AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY-CHINA
> Project manager: £12,173
> Software engineer: £6,998
> Accountant: £4,677
> ...






> AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY-INDIA
> Project manager: £5,220
> Software engineer: £5,344
> Accountant: £2,956
> ...




http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4436692.stm


----------



## Temjin (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> US 9 trillion dollar consumer economy, China 1 trillion dollar consumer economy.
> 
> The average wage in China is about 2pc of the average wage in the US. I dont see a boom in Ipods and Plasmas in the developing world anytime soon.
> 
> ...




Combine US economy and the Europe economy and one will see how small the Chinese consumer economy is truly is, which remain a largely export based gdp.


----------



## treefrog (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> US 9 trillion dollar consumer economy, China 1 trillion dollar consumer economy.
> 
> The average wage in China is about 2pc of the average wage in the US. I dont see a boom in Ipods and Plasmas in the developing world anytime soon.
> 
> Decoupling is a untried "theory".




fair comment

but if we are looking at growth, where in macro terms does it come from??

Personally I am convinced it is all but all from population growth

1950 2.55billion; 1960 3.0b; 1970 3.7b; 1980 4.5b;
1990 5.3b; 2000 6.1b; 2010 6.8b; 2020 7.6b etc

so ozzie shares are looking good as long as people want a bicycle instead of walking. a motor bike instead of peddling, a car instead of a mb, an ice box instead of sour milk. a frig instead of etc etc

only downside risk is the greenies overdoing the global warming issue and stopping growth which means (probably) - industrialised areas must reverse growth because try telling the peasants they can't have a bicycle or a few more kids


----------



## dhukka (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> I think the economies of China and India are far greater than the size of the US




Yes, you do think that the combined economies of China and India are far bigger than the US but that doesn't make you right. In fact it makes you horribly wrong. 

2007 GDP estimates in $US

*USA   13.5 trillion
China     3.1 trillion
India     1.0 trillion*



> and most of there demand is too feed the homegrown growth not all but some of it is US related.




Again utterly false, asian economies are becoming ever more reliant on exports. 



> Now the US plus EU now thats a big economy factor but again the growth of China India Russia Brasil far outweighs the combination of US and EU.




USA   13.5 trillion

Germany 2.9 trillion, France 2.3 trillion, U.K 2.4 trillion = *7.6 trillion*

Total USA, France Germany U.K = *21.1 trillion* (That's leaving out a sizeable chunk of Europe)

China 3.1 trillion, India 1.0 trillion, Brazil 1.1 trillion, Russia, 1.0 trillion =  *6.2 trillion.*

You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.


----------



## Whiskers (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm not here to speak for Lucky_Country, but I thought he was talking about the rate of growth of the economies, not the absolute size.

I don't know the numbers for growth off hand but I am inclined to think that the US consumer spending may slow a little maybe to zero growth, but it isn't going to dry up all together. The other economies may be much smaller in absolute GDP terms, but so long as they keep growing at a much faster rate than the US, the Aus economy will be no worse off, maybe still gain a bit because of the need for our resources in those countries. The China's and India's are still going to manufacture all those goods and the US will still consume most of them just not quite so many as before. 

Assuming the US growth @ 1% is $135b. China @ 6% is $186b... China alone will grow by a larger $ value than the US in the short term. 

I don't see a 1% fall in the US growth rate equating to a 1% fall in China's exports, let alone growth.


----------



## Lucky_Country (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Growth is what drives share prices not recession.
China and India are the high growth countries of the world, read somewhere cant remember where that Chinas oil consumption was growing by 400,000 bopd.
Australian resources are spending billions of dollars expanding there operations too meet demand and they would not be doing this if it were just a 1 or 2 year demand equation.
Bloomberg today said India growing at 9% China last I heard 11%
This is just the infrastructure boom wait till they do start buying ipods and plasmas.
Some of this demand has also been caused by global warming updating power generators too more climate friendly ones LNG and U308 and that is a worldwide episode


----------



## CFD (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Isn't this thread meant to be on analysis?


----------



## chops_a_must (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> I think the market is getting sick of bad news from US and has already factored in a recession so anything but a recession is viewed as a positive.




Ummm... didn't we just see a >2.5% sell off based on US jobs numbers?

How does that in any way suggest this had been factored in?

We did not however breach support today, so I'm now holding a few other things. Tight stops blah blah blah.

ASXG - It was just a reference to another person's point. As someone more inclined to look at T/A, I don't really believe in political events effecting the markets overly on a whole (election years are different though). I'm more inclined to take into economic policy decisions than anything. The reaction of the U bubble to the Labor announcement is typical of the reasons I'm personally sceptical of political influence on markets on the larger level.


----------



## wavepicker (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Indices at the crossroads this evening.

As well as a potential completed EW abc(blue waves a and c approx equal)in my top EW count(Ending Diagonal) from earlier post:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=240459&postcount=1910

there is also potential for a bounce tonight/tommorow due to a cycle point low. This low maybe the siginificant if it holds. The next major cycle point is a high and it does not come into effect until late Jan/Early February. Failing that a break below 12,707 pts would be quite bearish


Cheers


----------



## treefrog (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Indices at the crossroads this evening.
> 
> As well as a potential completed EW abc(blue waves a and c approx equal)in my top EW count(Ending Diagonal) from earlier post:
> 
> ...




hard to believe there won't be a bounce tomorrow - there are some seriously oversold indicators on lots of stocks


----------



## wayneL (7 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> hard to believe there won't be a bounce tomorrow - there are some seriously oversold indicators on lots of stocks




Futures up about half a percent too at this stage, Europe up a bit. A technical bounce looks a "possible" certainty.


----------



## Sean K (8 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> A technical bounce looks a "possible" certainty.



LOL


----------



## hacheln_mice (8 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I don't see any signs of mass sell offs yet. I see buyers lowering their bids but not a lot of sellers jumping yet. If you ignore a few financials and big resource stocks the rest of the market probably isn't all that bad.
> 
> Anyone see it different?




All Ords down 2.27%, Small Ords down 2.37%, Midcaps down 3.14%.

Looking at those numbers, I would have thought that it was the large caps that was propping up the markets rather than dragging it down.  Seems like the advance decline is telling the same thing...

At least the trend line from 2003 (in the all ords) hasn't been convincingly broken yet...

That being said, even if the trend line does break, it doesn't necessarily signal a bear market (trading range most likely).


----------



## prana (8 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

similarly, the DJI is forming a long term support from 1990 on the log chart, and the DJI has a third test of horizontal support at 12800 thereabouts - up forming a wedge, so this is a critical point and could spell troubles for Australian Equities if it went underneath. My gut feel is that both indices will respect the support but it's just a feel and is as reliable as a fish behind the wheel.


----------



## treefrog (8 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



hacheln_mice said:


> All Ords down 2.27%, Small Ords down 2.37%, Midcaps down 3.14%.
> 
> At least the trend line from 2003 (in the all ords) hasn't been convincingly broken yet...
> 
> That being said, even if the trend line does break, it doesn't necessarily signal a bear market (trading range most likely).




agrees with miss mousey

thought I'd toss in a little more explanation of how those lines work as its obvious there are a few fundamentalists about

when there is two or more price hi or lows at the same number a solid horizontal line appears - like the bottom two lines

when there are more hi or low numbers that hit that solid orange line (the same number) they make holes in it and it becomes a dotted orange line

thereafter, when that number occurs again it may be at one of these holes and it can fall through (as happened on the top orange line)

then; the dotted line becomes a dash/dot line making it even easier to fall through next time

all the while (if there are enough low numbers) there can be a slopey green line which forces the numbers to keep going up except that this also gets holes in it and can allow the numbers to fall through  

at the moment there is a green slopey one and an orange one at the same place stopping the numbers from falling:

BUT, they both have holes in them

hmmmmmm Your file of 116.5 KB bytes exceeds the forum's limit of 78.1 KB for this filetype.


----------



## hacheln_mice (8 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> agrees with miss mousey
> 
> thought I'd toss in a little more explanation of how those lines work as its obvious there are a few fundamentalists about
> 
> ...




Glad to see you taking the piss out of charts.  How's fundamental analysis working out for ya  .


----------



## Nyden (8 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Did I miss something?  ASX was up 16pts when I went out this morning, came back to a drop of 44! Not very analytical of me, but what the heck happened?


----------



## MattB (8 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i've not been amongst stock trading for too long, so I still scratch my head at the markets behaviour! 
some have been posting charts analyzing against the resent bull run from 2003...   well, that's been a 'short' 5 year trend...   what about the 25 year uptrend?   Is there possibilities that it could correct to this more sober upward channel? ..that would mean the XAO 'should' be on 4500!


----------



## treefrog (8 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



hacheln_mice said:


> Glad to see you taking the piss out of charts.  How's fundamental analysis working out for ya  .




I use both fund and tech together - well a not too deep version - reasoning that there are a lot of charties and a lot of fundies and its buying power that moves prices so if enough of either get into the market (or out) then it moves - and if it moves I can cream off a little - the pigmallion trading system I call it - charts are always trumped by fundamentals though

will try again for the missing chart


----------



## treefrog (8 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Did I miss something?  ASX was up 16pts when I went out this morning, came back to a drop of 44! Not very analytical of me, but what the heck happened?




its ZFX, OXR, and BHP mate - bluddy lead weights they are


----------



## nikki (8 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

did the XAO go up today because people were buying to short the market even further. it then fell on fundamentals of fear!

was the DJIA move up at the closing minutes of yesterday something similar - i.e. buying defensively to prepare for a potential break of the 12800 support.

not sure - i was just trying to understand the 'fundamentals' of the sudden moves in the DJIA and XAO today?


----------



## willow (8 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Gooday Barrett, your rounding top on the Dow is also coming off a  doulble top on the Dow, check out Uncle Festivus chart a page or two back. Cheers.


----------



## willow (9 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry about the above post, I was thinking of the SPX. Looks like a big head and shoulders or rounding top on the daily at the same level of the double top  on the monthly. Cheers.


----------



## Sean K (9 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Untidy.


----------



## Logique (9 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Useful chart kennas, 
the lower XAO high at 6740 followed by falling through the 200SMA, then a break down below 6200.  Untidy is one word for it. Not good for the near term prospects.


----------



## GreatPig (9 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This doesn't inspire a lot of confidence either.

GP


----------



## M34N (9 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeah it doesn't look that good in the short term. Technical rebound any time soon? Or possible further down side? FOMC meeting coming up soon, should spark some bargain hunting *when* (not if ) they slash rates.

But the last few "corrections" we had, the market fell 10%, then rebounded a fair bit all 3 times. Happened in March, August and even November, this is the only bullish case I can think to buy in.

But the US reporting season coming up, maybe a lot of the selling in the last couple sessions in the US has been in anticipation of negative news, and anything good will most likely spark a frenzy of buying, and anything bad, well... how much lower can it go?


----------



## professor_frink (9 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Yeah it doesn't look that good in the short term. Technical rebound any time soon? Or possible further down side? FOMC meeting coming up soon, should spark some bargain hunting *when* (not if ) they slash rates.
> 
> But the last few "corrections" we had, the market fell 10%, then rebounded a fair bit all 3 times. Happened in March, August and even November, this is the only bullish case I can think to buy in.
> 
> But the US reporting season coming up, maybe a lot of the selling in the last couple sessions in the US has been in anticipation of negative news, and anything good will most likely spark a frenzy of buying, and anything bad, well... how much lower can it go?




Personally, I think we'll more than likely bounce over the next few days- today's action for our market was a great technical bounce off the Feb 07 highs, and was combined with a fib retracement of some kind(don't have my charts up to look right now at exactly what it was). Asia was quite strong today too- the kospi and nikkei futs managed to finish in the green.

Combine that with the Dow looking heavily oversold IMO, we could rally over the next few days. Maybe


----------



## treefrog (9 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Personally, I think we'll more than likely bounce over the next few days- today's action for our market was a great technical bounce off the Feb 07 highs, and was combined with a fib retracement of some kind(don't have my charts up to look right now at exactly what it was). Asia was quite strong today too- the kospi and nikkei futs managed to finish in the green.
> 
> Combine that with the Dow looking heavily oversold IMO, we could rally over the next few days. Maybe




agrees with the bounce

on the XJO, the frog fib projection is back up for a potential double top - ie bounce from 6000 to 6800 (assuming the bounce gets some steam up)


----------



## treefrog (10 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

so why all the grizzles (unless you are a yank)

XAO outperforms 500 by 100% over 10 years


----------



## austek (10 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The XAO has fallen thru several support lines since last November and traders seem to apply their own labels to them minor, major, intermediate etc.

Does tech analysis have some correct means to identify these areas of support.

6560 I see as minor support from last Oct
6460 was clearly resistance last Jul & again Jan2 but did not act as support
6370 was resistance May and became support Nov. I consider this major supp
6021 was resist feb 07 and became weak support Aug29 (not reached yet)
5490 was the Aug low, and below here I feel a bear market is upon us.

Just trying to get my head around correct terminology for these support areas while we have a lull in the market and be ready to jump in if/when the market shows a strong bounce form support


----------



## willow (11 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's the SPX going back 40 years showing around the time of significant 14 month CCI trendline breaks with the turning of Sochastic momentum at the over-bought zone. These lines can be drawn in other places as well and in nearly all cases the very minimum to expect is several months of tight monthly consolidation. The odds favor some sought of decline to me, though, looking at this chart. Cheers.


----------



## chops_a_must (11 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some absoolutely fantastic analysis there Willow. Full credit to you.

IMO what happens to the market as a whole depends WAY too much on what happens here with BHP:


----------



## powerkoala (11 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well, looks like XAO won't follow the lead from US anymore.
3 days up from DOW doesn't help to lift our beloved market.
seems the negatif sentiment so strong.
would we test the low on august 07?


----------



## numbercruncher (11 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is this the decoupling folks speak of ?


As they say, becareful what you wish for


----------



## Buffettology (11 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is absolutely not looking good!

Isnt it the US who are in a supposed recession already, not us?  ha ha.

It appears the market is factoring in a US recession already, so once the figures are released (probably 6-12 months due to time-lags), we may not see any major ramifications.


----------



## treefrog (11 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



willow said:


> Here's the SPX going back 40 years showing around the time of significant 14 month CCI trendline breaks with the turning of Sochastic momentum at the over-bought zone. These lines can be drawn in other places as well and in nearly all cases the very minimum to expect is several months of tight monthly consolidation. The odds favor some sought of decline to me, though, looking at this chart. Cheers.




yep, really top stuff willow

seems the market gets a itch every four years when its bouncing sideways but extends the urge to scratch to 7years when in bull mode

CCI I take it the Commodity Channel Index

cheerz


----------



## treefrog (11 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> well, looks like XAO won't follow the lead from US anymore.
> *3 days up from DOW doesn't help to lift our beloved market*.
> seems the negatif sentiment so strong.
> would we test the low on august 07?




might be a tad early to say we have separated but agree three is surprising


----------



## treefrog (11 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Good thing I had already drawn in that thick horizontal line On the XJO at 6000 - that has stopped today's bear run


----------



## korrupt_1 (11 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I also drew a thick Yellow Line at 6000 and put a sign up saying "Do not feed the Bears"

I think some silly people feed the bears so now the bears have breach the zone and are making a habbit of coming back for more...

I've drawn a line at 5800 and a sign saying "Bears Beware - use of lethal force allowed".

Another line at 5500 and a sign "Bear skins for sale!"

ie... 5500 could be a real possibility before this mess gets better... anyone agree with me on that call?


----------



## reece55 (11 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> I also drew a thick Yellow Line at 6000 and put a sign up saying "Do not feed the Bears"
> 
> I think some silly people feed the bears so now the bears have breach the zone and are making a habbit of coming back for more...
> 
> ...




I would be surprised if the 5,400 levels aren't tested again. 

However, I would be wary that the market is due for a bounce and it isn't going to happen next week. Certainly the S&P 500 is starting to show evidence of a bounce and we would obviously follow suit.

My view anyway!

Cheers


----------



## rub92me (11 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> I also drew a thick Yellow Line at 6000 and put a sign up saying "Do not feed the Bears"
> 
> I think some silly people feed the bears so now the bears have breach the zone and are making a habbit of coming back for more...
> 
> ...



You'd have to keep waving the signs and shout a lot. Bears don't see static objects too well


----------



## powerkoala (11 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

maybe we should start hunting the bear down.
everyone equip your rifle and start shooting.
i think next week xao will be better after this week battering.


----------



## Gurgler (11 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

At close: All Ordinaries: 6,054.4  down 92.9.

That's equivalent to a drop of 1.51% after the DOW rose 0.92% last night. Now that's what I call divergence!


----------



## Whiskers (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



reece55 said:


> I would be surprised if the 5,400 levels aren't tested again.
> 
> However, I would be wary that the market is due for a bounce and it isn't going to happen next week. Certainly the S&P 500 is starting to show evidence of a bounce and we would obviously follow suit.
> 
> ...




I'm going with those who claim a turnaround early next week. 

There's still good support yet. Until 6018.9 is comprehensively broken, I'm not too worried about roaming bears. 

They'll probably have to go hungry fo a bit longer yet.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gurgler said:


> At close: All Ordinaries: 6,054.4  down 92.9.
> 
> That's equivalent to a drop of 1.51% after the DOW rose 0.92% last night. Now that's what I call divergence!






Whiskers said:


> I'm going with those who claim a turnaround early next week.
> 
> There's still good support yet. Until 6018.9 is comprehensively broken, I'm not too worried about roaming bears.
> 
> They'll probably have to go hungry fo a bit longer yet.




I confused now, DOW was up but our market went down, DOW was down this morning by 250, so our market will go up Monday????? Maybe Tuesday Whiskers, you'd think there was a rebound to come sooner or later?


----------



## Whiskers (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> I confused now, DOW was up but our market went down, DOW was down this morning by 250, so our market will go up Monday????? Maybe Tuesday Whiskers, you'd think there was a rebound to come sooner or later?




Yeah it's a bit like that Uncle. I'm thinking Tuesday too.  

I have put my devils advocate hat on and am speculating that the banks that most of these especially US forcasting economists work for might be hammering the news a bit for their own benifit.


----------



## Lucky_Country (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Quarterly and half yearly reports due out soon thay may give our market some stimulus and show AUS is partially decoupled from the US.
Resources are expecting record profits this year combined with takeover activity should give us a boost
The old saying you gotta hit rock bottom before things get better apply too the market atm and we aint hit bottom yet imo


----------



## treefrog (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> Quarterly and half yearly reports due out soon thay may give our market some stimulus and show AUS is partially decoupled from the US.
> Resources are expecting record profits this year combined with takeover activity should give us a boost
> The old saying you gotta hit rock bottom before things get better apply too the market atm and we aint hit bottom yet imo




particularly so this round of announcements the market will be looking well forward for earnings and growth projections - a good result that is months old not likely to help at all


----------



## tronic72 (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Our Market will be slaughtered on Monday. The DOW and NASDAQ feel nearly 2% on Friday so the XAO doesn't stand a chance. 

I'm taking my Bat (money) and Ball (laptop) and going home.


----------



## markrmau (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tronic72 said:


> The DOW and NASDAQ feel nearly 2% on Friday so the XAO doesn't stand a chance.




Not at all. Start thursday. The SP500 (forget the dow rubbush) rallied 1% or so. XJO lost over 1%. SP500 looses over 1%. MER up 5%  (!! WTF ??) 

Monday we will drop for first 10 minutes before ending up slightly (<.5%)


----------



## dhukka (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> Quarterly and half yearly reports due out soon thay may give our market some stimulus and show AUS is partially decoupled from the US.
> Resources are expecting record profits this year combined with takeover activity should give us a boost
> The old saying you gotta hit rock bottom before things get better apply too the market atm and we aint hit bottom yet imo




Good quarterly and half year reports are not evidence of decoupling. You would not expect to see earnings weakness in Australia at the same time as the US. Their will be a lag effect and will also depend on how deep and protracted the US slowdown is. ASX company profits will be solid through at least June 2008.

Mining company profits have been declining for several quarters and actually peaked several quarters ago. More importantly as treefrog points out will be company outlooks.


----------



## nikki (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Good quarterly and half year reports are not evidence of decoupling. You would not expect to see earnings weakness in Australia at the same time as the US. Their will be a lag effect and will also depend on how deep and protracted the US slowdown is. ASX company profits will be solid through at least June 2008.
> 
> Mining company profits have been declining for several quarters and actually peaked several quarters ago. More importantly as treefrog points out will be company outlooks.




shhhhooooshhhhhhhhhhh Dhukka - i am hoping for a rally on such news so i can sell into the strength!!!! i would expect miners like RIO and BHP to report huge gains. I am sure RIO will report differently only to boost its SP for a solid take-over.

anyone know when the big traders will come back into the aussie markets (instititional ones i mean). i think the drops have been exagerated because of fewer people trading this time of the year. i am not suggesting the institutional investors are bullish but i figure they have to park their money somewhere??

i am calling for a flat XJO and XAO on monday until the DJIA breaks 12500 - otherwise there is no reason for further pressure on our indexes.


----------



## wavepicker (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tronic72 said:


> Our Market will be slaughtered on Monday. The DOW and NASDAQ feel nearly 2% on Friday so the XAO doesn't stand a chance.
> 
> I'm taking my Bat (money) and Ball (laptop) and going home.




It maybe that a good proportion of the US decline has was already factored in on Fridays XAO decline tronic. Perhaps a 35-50 pt decline on open and then after 1:30pm we will see if we get a continuation or not.


----------



## nizar (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Even if this is the start of a bearmarket, both the DOW and XAO are oversold and i would expect some sort of technical bounce next week.


----------



## Lucky_Country (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> particularly so this round of announcements the market will be looking well forward for earnings and growth projections - a good result that is months old not likely to help at all




Good results from the last quarter affect forward earnings as do bad results.
New projects have come onstream in the last quarter may or may have not performed as well as predicted maybe even outperformed that is why they may give us a bounce or worst case a fall in that companys sp.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

3 pretty pics to consider. First two show XAO activity during last two US recessions. 3rd looks at what might happen now.


----------



## nizar (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> 3 pretty pics to consider. First two show XAO activity during last two US recessions. 3rd looks at what might happen now.




Longterm trend line (pre-2003) will still be intact even if we get to 4800, or whatever that 30% low was.

Perhaps a more important question is not how low we go, but rather how long it will be until the bottom is in.


----------



## Edwood (12 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> I confused now, DOW was up but our market went down, DOW was down this morning by 250, so our market will go up Monday????? Maybe Tuesday Whiskers, you'd think there was a rebound to come sooner or later?




all sessions SPI followed DOW down so we should have a decent gap down to open on Monday & 'ideally' we'll retrace some of the gap.  Northern Rock failing to get rescue funding in the UK may not help general banking sentiment so Monday could still be weak and we could go lower yet, but overall for next week I'll be biased towards longs


----------



## $20shoes (13 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

An aside, interesting because it does not occur that often is the dead cross of the 50day EMA of the 200 day EMA on the S&P. This has just occurred this week on the S&P500. Though it has no real forecasting capabilities by itself, anecdotally the index either recovers (ie, a golden cross):

i ) within a few weeks with some possible consolidation before the next leg up, 

OR  

ii) if it cannot recover in a few weeks, the index goes into a much longer term period of consolidation or turns bear - both periods lasting months to years. 

Dead Crosses going back to 87 have only occurred 7 times:

Jan 08 till ??

Oct 2000 dead cross lasted until May 03 golden cross (bear market)

Oct 98 dead cross lasted 3 weeks while index traced out a double bottom

dEC 94 - lasted 4 weeks (end of consolidation phase - part of a broader basing phase - before bull market run)

aPRIL 94 dead cross lasted until Aug 94 golden cross (index ranging for most of 94 caused the dead cross)

Aug 90 dead cross lasted until Feb 91 golden cross (bear market)

Oct 87 dead cross lasted until Oct 88 golden cross (bear falls followed by basing phase)


----------



## treefrog (13 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> An aside, interesting because it does not occur that often is the dead cross of the 50day EMA of the 200 day EMA on the S&P. This has just occurred this week on the S&P500. Though it has no real forecasting capabilities by itself, anecdotally the index either recovers (ie, a golden cross):
> 
> i ) within a few weeks with some possible consolidation before the next leg up,
> 
> ...




top post!! - tend to forget these macro indicators

and applying to the local indexes(sectors) which (according to these EMA's) are already in a bear market

top20 - no
smalls - no
energy - no
materials - no
industrials - YES!
con discretionary - YES!
con staples - no
health - no
tech - YES!
utilities - YES!
properties - YES!
finance - YES!


----------



## willow (13 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some really good charts and information is being posted here, it's nearly information overload. Here's the XJO chart with two main trendlines of support broken for the second time, the major trendline going back to the beginning of this bull run and the 34 week ema. 

The weekly close has found support at the red trendline. But according to the chart I posted on p95 with the ROC extreme readings a move to the August lows or lower is likely to occur eventually (dotted blue line). Also looking at the 4 year cycles I'd say it's not over yet and I'd expect more of a decline with such a steep angle of ascent. Cheers.

Treefrog, yes it was the Commodity Channel index, one of my favorite indicators along with stochastic momentum.

Chops a must, Glad you appreciate the chart, I agree with you on BHP. I notice it's weekly relative strength is losing ground from high above and is looking similar to September 2006 when it traveled sideways for quite a while before breaking new ground. Cheers


----------



## treefrog (13 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

lust a passing thought: sorry, meant just - or maybe I didn't:

if NWS was still a weighting in our market we would definately be bear by now - NWS $32 to $22 in last 10 months


----------



## insider (14 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> LOLOL
> 
> "Bearish" A parody song





I just wanted to go through some of the older posts and see how relevant it is at present time... Nice one WayneL


----------



## powerkoala (14 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ok.. this looks good,
xao rebounce from the low 5970 and now at 6030.
that's around 60 point.
can't see support at 5970 before.
will this be a dead cat or a good start for rebound after correction?
any ideas guys?
cheers


----------



## Whiskers (14 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> I just wanted to go through some of the older posts and see how relevant it is at present time... Nice one WayneL




Whats this... the new US national anthem!!!??? 

Some people just have too much spare time on their hands. :


----------



## powerkoala (14 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well well....
this is surprising, the first time we have green in XAO, LOL 
bounce strongly now.
all major banks are green.
bhp, rio also green.
tomorrow will be a good start.


----------



## numbercruncher (14 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Goldman cuts China 2008 growth forecast to 10 pct
> 
> BEIJING, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has cut its forecast for Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year to 10 pct from 10.3 percent to reflect the impact of a recession it expects in the United States.
> "Given the significant contribution to growth from net exports, a meaningful slowdown in global demand, triggered by a U.S. recession, would surely have a visible impact on China's growth and corporate profitability," Hong Liang, the investment bank's chief China economist, said in a note issued on Monday.
> Goldman now expects net exports to contribute 1.6 percentage points to China's 2008 GDP growth instead of 1.8 points. It estimates that net exports accounted for 3.4 percentage points, or almost a third, of projected 2007 GDP growth of 10.4 percent.




http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7222763


Might not be so good for resource demand growth eh ?


----------



## moXJO (14 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wonder how much wider this ascending wedge is going to get. I doubt there is enough to push it to the upper line again. And will be watching for that break to the downside. Stranger things have happened though ,so will have to see if support holds. Can’t see it holding for too long with current economic news though.

Following the wedge made buy and sell points look easy with a little hindsight though


My first try at posting a chart so sorry if it doesn't come out


----------



## GreatPig (14 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If you plot it on a log scale, it's more of a parallel channel than a wedge, especially if you start back in early 2003.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Kauri (14 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Talk/rumours of both an early 50 bp cut and Bush's US$100 Billion stimulating exercise may be helping to prop the market somewhat...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers (14 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Talk/rumours of both an early 50 bp cut and Bush's US$100 Billion stimulating exercise may be helping to prop the market somewhat...
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




And it might not end there...



> Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials signaled they've shifted their stance in favor of taking out greater ``insurance'' against the increasing risk of recession.
> 
> 
> Traders anticipate at least a half-point reduction in the target rate for overnight loans between banks this month, according to contracts quoted on the Chicago Board of Trade.
> ...


----------



## treefrog (14 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> well well....
> this is surprising, the first time we have green in XAO, LOL
> bounce strongly now.
> all major banks are green.
> ...




what on earth are you saying? - you are a bear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## powerkoala (14 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> what on earth are you saying? - you are a bear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




LOL, i am just pretending to be a bear and will change my costume once xao goes north


----------



## treefrog (14 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XJO 5min charts - significant double top formation (almost complete) on today's action


----------



## treefrog (14 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> XJO 5min charts - significant double top formation (almost complete) on today's action




complete now but down move still has a way to go

sorry, next time will give this a different postcode - best in breakout alerts i'd guess


----------



## korrupt_1 (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was just looking at last night's after hour trading chart for the SPI and there was a massive spike down then back up again within minutes. There was about 50 points down and up again...

I bet a few ppl would have been stopped out and then again a few ppl would have entered the trade and made an instant 50 odd points in minutes....

Is this why people have been complaining that some CFD brokers are shonks? ie they manipulate the prices to stop you out of a trade, etc?


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> I was just looking at last night's after hour trading chart for the SPI and there was a massive spike down then back up again within minutes. There was about 50 points down and up again...
> 
> I bet a few ppl would have been stopped out and then again a few ppl would have entered the trade and made an instant 50 odd points in minutes....
> 
> Is this why people have been complaining that some CFD brokers are shonks? ie they manipulate the prices to stop you out of a trade, etc?




That had nothing to do with the CFD MM. Something happened last night with a huge Futures trade across all Index Futures Asian, US and Europe or a big time Data failure. I think it was around 6:15 last night. I would guess it had something to do with the migration of contracts to the GLOBEX exchange which was happening last night. 

Someones Big Bad Black Box blew up?


----------



## wayneL (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> That had nothing to do with the CFD MM. Something happened last night with a huge Futures trade across all Index Futures Asian, US and Europe or a big time Data failure. I think it was around 6:15 last night. I would guess it had something to do with the migration of contracts to the GLOBEX exchange which was happening last night.
> 
> Someones Big Bad Black Box blew up?



Fat finger trade??

CME busted the SP/ES trades.


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Fat finger trade??
> 
> CME busted the SP/ES trades.




Have trading Bots got fingers?


----------



## Edwood (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

doesn't look like all trades were busted tho including stops etc...

To GLOBEX traders:
Mon Jan 14 06:37:46 2008 EST

GLOBEX CANCELLED TRADES UPDATE

Further to our earlier bulletins; although not confirmed, we understand that there was a mass order error by another financial firm which resulted in a large imbalance in the GLOBEX order book, and the subsequent spike in the market. GLOBEX cancelled (busted) trades which occurred outside of the no-bust range in their equity index futures and future options. We believe we have manually removed all of the cancelled trades from customer accounts. This is a manual process, so customers should use the previous price ranges as guidance, and contact customer service if you believe that your position is incorrect. It is important to note that all other trades will stand. This includes trades which have been executed because of the large market move, including stop and conditional orders that may have been triggered by the price move. It shall also include orders that were triggered by an execution price of a trade that was subsequently cancelled by GLOBEX. Clients should manage their current positions. We understand that clients may be adversely affected by the ruling made by GLOBEX, and have made a formal complaint to the exchange.


----------



## wayneL (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Have trading Bots got fingers?



Sure, and they're bound to get fat sitting around in front of a screen all day like that.


----------



## nikki (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

crazy index??????

does anyone know why the selling pressure was on our index earlier today. was it just CNP or was there something else?

i have not seen such nervous trading?


----------



## Captain_Chaza (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nikki said:


> crazy index??????
> 
> does anyone know why the selling pressure was on our index earlier today. was it just CNP or was there something else?
> 
> i have not seen such nervous trading?




The word at sea is that  Citigroup will write off 24 $Billion BIG Bucks tonight in the USA and sack 24000 pilgrims

Salute and Gods's speed


----------



## numbercruncher (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Captain_Chaza said:


> The word at sea is that  Citigroup will write off 24 $Billion BIG Bucks tonight in the USA and sack 24000 pilgrims
> 
> Salute and Gods's speed





Some more carnage !

Typing that into google has plenty of hits !




> January 14, 2008 7:48 AM EST
> CNBC is reporting at its website that Citigroup (NYSE: C) could write-off up to $24 billion, related to subprime and CDOs, and lay off 20,000 workers. Citigroup is also reportedly considering a dividend cut.
> 
> Citi is also expected to raise up to $15 billion from various foreign entities including Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.
> ...




http://www.streetinsider.com/Basic+Content/Citigroup+(C)+Could+Write-Off+Up+to+$24B,+Raise+More+Capital/3260964.html


----------



## nikki (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

thanks for that! i thought that news had come out during yesterday's trading day!! I read it on bloombergs before the US market closed this morning at 7?


----------



## Nyden (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sigh. Can we just have *one* bloody green day? The US has been having quite a few of them! Whole world was up, but the good ol' ASX has to buck the trend  When did Australian investors become so nervous? What exactly is this based on?

The Australian economy is in fair shape, we have good fundamentals, *we're* not going into a recession, & as far as I can see - base metals aren't plummeting. There's no logic here! 

We sell off on some fearful rumor, & decide not to buy back in when it doesn't pan out.

Our market needs to start focusing on our base metal stocks again, & ignore banks, & property


----------



## powerkoala (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Sigh. Can we just have *one* bloody green day? The US has been having quite a few of them! Whole world was up, but the good ol' ASX has to buck the trend  When did Australian investors become so nervous? What exactly is this based on?
> 
> The Australian economy is in fair shape, we have good fundamentals, *we're* not going into a recession, & as far as I can see - base metals aren't plummeting. There's no logic here!
> 
> ...





i am agree with you..
hate looking at my portfolio every day just to see they are all red.
really confuse what will drive our market up


----------



## Kauri (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I guess we are tagging the Nikkei... which after a day off yesterday... is a tad nervous of C et al...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## evwatkins (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I just sold all my shares, had $31k invested and was still worth $34k

will consider entering again on a ver down day. anyway was happy to take some profits whilst i can


----------



## Whiskers (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I'm going with those who claim a turnaround early next week.
> 
> There's still good support yet. Until 6018.9 is comprehensively broken, I'm not too worried about roaming bears.
> 
> They'll probably have to go hungry fo a bit longer yet.




So far so good. The 61.8% retracement might just hold yet. But my few stocks are all in the XMJ and it's holding fine.

All you EW's are a bit quiet! 

What signals are you getting?


----------



## Kauri (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> So far so good. The 61.8% retracement might just hold yet. But my few stocks are all in the XMJ and it's holding fine.
> 
> All you EW's are a bit quiet!
> 
> What signals are you getting?




 My post from 03/01/08.. a bit quiet sose I don't see much to add... so far anyways.... 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## nizar (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Sigh. Can we just have *one* bloody green day? The US has been having quite a few of them! Whole world was up, but the good ol' ASX has to buck the trend  When did Australian investors become so nervous? What exactly is this based on?
> 
> The Australian economy is in fair shape, we have good fundamentals, *we're* not going into a recession, & as far as I can see - base metals aren't plummeting. There's no logic here!
> 
> ...




Try not to check the market everyday if you dont have to.
That may help.


----------



## M34N (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Seventh day down in a row, metal prices up, gold and oil up, Dow Jones up at least twice in those seven sessions, but we're down. I must admit, I never thought today would be a negative day, especially after the smooth trading day overnight in the US for once, would of thought that would of added to the positive mood for once. But looks like the Centro mess is just adding to the negativeness overall. Disappointing really.

My only question for the experts here is; what's the next support level for the XJO/XAO? We opened firmly at above the 6000 mark, then peaked at 6040, and dipped down to around 5940 with some support there. So if 5940 is broken tomorrow what's the next down leg to?


----------



## chops_a_must (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nikki said:


> thanks for that! i thought that news had come out during yesterday's trading day!! I read it on bloombergs before the US market closed this morning at 7?




It did (well rumours anyway). I traded off it. But C was up for the day.  But who knows how the US markets will react? They've had a history of reacting incredibly strangely to bad news. Futures are down a bit at the moment.

Nyden and others, the all ords are not dominated by miners, apart from BHP and RIO. Overall, our market is led by retailers and financials. I'm not sure how many times people have to say this...


----------



## Nyden (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Nyden and others, the all ords are not dominated by miners, apart from BHP and RIO. Overall, our market is led by retailers and financials. I'm not sure how many times people have to say this...




Chops, I of course understand this. But are our retailers / financials doing so bad as to warrant 7 days of losses? Last I saw, we had record sales over the Christmas break. Last I heard, our banks aren't going bankrupt. 

Essentially, it is my belief that *our* shopping, & spending habits are doing fine. Do our banks lend to Americans? Not as far as I know. So I guess I just don't understand, as on a fundamental basis things seem to be alright here. But, I guess fundamentals are out the door right now, aren't they  Markets are all fear, & panic

I guess it just frustrates me that a few stocks can do so much damage out of stupidity. CNP should have never even hit $1, it should have bombed & remained at 40c. The buy-in on that was pure 100% gambling, & that rubbish belongs on the roulette table, & not in the markets. The downfall on that, coupled with more darn rumors from the US triggered yet more fear, & cost us the green day we would have had.


----------



## Nyden (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Try not to check the market everyday if you dont have to.
> That may help.




I know you're right Nizar, & I'm sure you know you're right as well!

Easier said than done though in current market conditions, I'm an investor; but of course I don't want to see my capital halved.

What's even more difficult is trying to keep a level head, & not becoming irrational with the rest of the mob.

I guess you become addicted to watching the markets like a hawk, it's like a car-crash; very difficult to look away!


----------



## Real1ty (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Chops, I of course understand this. But are our retailers / financials doing so bad as to warrant 7 days of losses? Last I saw, we had record sales over the Christmas break. Last I heard, our banks aren't going bankrupt.
> 
> Essentially, it is my belief that *our* shopping, & spending habits are doing fine. Do our banks lend to Americans? Not as far as I know. So I guess I just don't understand, as on a fundamental basis things seem to be alright here. But, I guess fundamentals are out the door right now, aren't they  Markets are all fear, & panic
> 
> I guess it just frustrates me that a few stocks can do so much damage out of stupidity. CNP should have never even hit $1, it should have bombed & remained at 40c. The buy-in on that was pure 100% gambling, & that rubbish belongs on the roulette table, & not in the markets. The downfall on that, coupled with more darn rumors from the US triggered yet more fear, & cost us the green day we would have had.




You have to remember that the market is working on what is going to happen in the future, and to a far lesser extent the past.

I think a lot of people have undersold the effect the Banks have had, raising interest rates independent of the RBA.

We have high inflation, banks raising rates, possibly the RBA raising, a possible recession in the US and a probable global slowdown, record oil etc etc.

Maybe the Australian market has positioned itself for the inevitable while the US places their faith in Ben to pull them out of the shizzle?, yeah good luck with that.

Our markets are not all fear and panic, and by the way you are talking you either haven't seen many fear markets or have forgotten.
I think you might need to re evauate your strategy because if you are frustrated now in this current market, you might be pulling your hair out at some stage this year.


----------



## chops_a_must (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> *Essentially, it is my belief that our shopping, & spending habits are doing fine.* Do our banks lend to Americans? Not as far as I know. So I guess I just don't understand, as on a fundamental basis things seem to be alright here. But, I guess fundamentals are out the door right now, aren't they  Markets are all fear, & panic



If you are going to say things like that, perhaps you should take a look at your position in the market. Our banks have eventually admitted exposure to sub-prime. Some of our councils have been caught up. As far as I'm aware, per capita we are the most in-debted nation in the western world. Spending habits are fine I'm sure. 

Credit is an international fundamental, and the basis of it is dictated from the US. These are really really basic things.


----------



## korrupt_1 (15 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From what I understand, Fund Mangers are the real power behind our little aussie index. They have the funds to move the market and whatever they want, they can usually achieve. Of late, I've heard that FM's are lightening their portfolios of exposure to the equity markets. They are selling anything that looks like a rally to get the best exit prices. They just don't care about what the rest of the world is doing. All they know is they must get the cash off the tables and put safely under the bed. The cash is now being put into things like precious metals and fixed term deposits.

When will they come back? when they think the market is stable and has a sense of direction again. It's possible they are waiting for even lower prices before  coming back... maybe 5800's or even 5500's will get their attention?

Lets all hope that it never gets that far, but if it does, make sure you have some funds ready to trade cos it will be a wicked ride back to the top again!!


----------



## Sean K (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

28 Nov



wavepicker said:


> Although I have a bearish bias myself and I have been previously bearish the market(months ago), I don't think this will be the case.
> 
> *The market looks to be churning at present and will be probably reverse here to put in one final leg above to approx 7100 by Feb/March 2008 before turning bearish*. I had earmarked a low for the current leg down for either 15th Nov Or 20th Nov but it came late  again by 6-8  trading days for both the XAO and SP500.
> 
> ...



WP, Have you officially revised this view as the time cycles for the 7100 high seems a little off. 

You picked a 'low' around 20 ish Nov which ended up being a bounce up to what looked to be almost a double top to me with a target of about 6000 ish, and then the current more significant move down started about 10 Dec. Since then it's been down, down, down. Not the significant rally you had anticipated from as early as last October.

Any revised time and price projections?

Apologies if you have already done this in the thread somewhere. Ignore this if you have.


----------



## chops_a_must (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From memory Kennas, he put up some stuff in the EW thread. The last high he projected then, to me, seemed to line up with a retest and fail of resistance (December lows) on the S&P 500.


----------



## Kauri (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think I must have struck it lucky... for once.. by a couple of days anyways..  (posted pre new year)  :luigi:

*



Re: The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread 

No idea where she is headed.. could have completed a WC and be resuming an uptrend, just as easily could be in a W1-W2 of a deeper WC.. also my very simple count be complete rubbish..  ..
The two time routines point to a period around the middle of January being significant.. possibly.. but as most of the indicated time points are around a week or so apart I guess that if I give them a couple of days leeway either side I can claim ... well...something???
Cheers and a happy and prosperous year to all
.......Kauri
		
Click to expand...


*


----------



## vishalt (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Going to be ripped apart today, futures down nearly 100. 

The Aussie market hasn't had one decent rally since this correction (or bear market) started.


----------



## wayneL (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> Going to be ripped apart today, futures down nearly 100.
> 
> The Aussie market hasn't had one decent rally since this correction (or bear market) started.




The US went further into the tank after hours too. A shocking open in store for the XAO for sure.

Dow -336 & SP500 -44 at time of writing.


----------



## chops_a_must (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> The US went further into the tank after hours too. A shocking open in store for the XAO for sure.
> 
> Dow -336 & SP500 -44 at time of writing.




DOW done another 20 points.

It was to do with Intel earnings after the bell.

Looks like that breakdown I was sprouting about happened and hit my target about 10 minutes after I decided to get some sleep.  Chops = tarded.

What would be your position on a potential mini-crash here over the next few days Wayne? All the fed stalling with the PPT, seems to have just barrelled up downside momentum rather than ensuring a quick, healthy, short and sharp sell off.


----------



## wayneL (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> DOW done another 20 points.
> 
> It was to do with Intel earnings after the bell.
> 
> ...



Well the mocking, smirking, baying perma-bulls (Krudlow et al) are having their credibility nuked at the moment. The folks (here in the UK at least) that were feigning unconcern, are openly sh!ting themselves right now.

Sentiment is taking a swan dive and though I've always favoured the "japanese" scenario, a volatile sell off wouldn't surprise me now.


----------



## dhukka (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Well the mocking, smirking, baying perma-bulls (Krudlow et al) are having their credibility nuked at the moment. The folks (here in the UK at least) that were feigning unconcern, are openly sh!ting themselves right now.
> 
> Sentiment is taking a swan dive and though I've always favoured the "japanese" scenario, a volatile sell off wouldn't surprise me now.




That's what we want, all out panic, to make things nice and cheap. Although the last time we looked likely for a big sell-off Helicopter Ben came in with mid meeting cut to the discount rate, any bets on a mid meeting rate cut tonight?


----------



## Sean K (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Although the last time we looked likely for a big sell-off Helicopter Ben came in with mid meeting cut to the discount rate, any bets on a mid meeting rate cut tonight?



They must be seriously considering this now. Odds on probably.


----------



## wayneL (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> That's what we want, all out panic, to make things nice and cheap. Although the last time we looked likely for a big sell-off Helicopter Ben came in with mid meeting cut to the discount rate, any bets on a mid meeting rate cut tonight?



The ECB thinks the Fed can't lower much more because of the USD apocalypse.

Will they trash the dollar? (further that is)

Well, I am incapable of being surprised by these clowns now, so who knows?


----------



## evwatkins (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

im so glad i sold everything yesterday


----------



## numbercruncher (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wholesale inflation shot up in 2007 by the largest amount in 26 years and that wouldnt of seen all of the effects of all the previous cuts, punters now saying 100pc chance of .5pc cut and like 40pc chance of .75

These guys are surely going to trash the dollar, i have basically zero confidence that they can find the " balance ".

More bank results this week ...... smell that ..... sorta smells like carnage , contagion , apocalypse and apple pie all at once 

But Im just a pessimist lol, and have been wrong more than once .....


----------



## dhukka (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> They must be seriously considering this now. Odds on probably.




Yep I think it's a high probability. If they don't do it tonight then they go into blackout mode since it is only 2 weeks until the next meeting. Although as Steve Lemming Leisman said last night on CNBC, it is unusual for the Fed to do an emergency cut this close to a meeting.


----------



## Nyden (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> If you are going to say things like that, perhaps you should take a look at your position in the market. Our banks have eventually admitted exposure to sub-prime. Some of our councils have been caught up. As far as I'm aware, per capita we are the most in-debted nation in the western world. Spending habits are fine I'm sure.
> 
> Credit is an international fundamental, and the basis of it is dictated from the US. These are really really basic things.




I agree, & understand that we have problems, but I just didn't think to this extent. Oh, don't worry about my position, I have 0 exposure to banks, & retailers. I just hold onto a few resources stocks at the moment that I feel have some upside to them  But, I'll be selling many positions on those as well!

It's not really frustration either, but rather lack of understanding I suppose.


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just some dribble from a mad man.

When the time comes to buy, you won't want to.

I'm in.


----------



## Awesomandy (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ignore me... My brain had temporarily gone haywired.


----------



## vishalt (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm glad me and my Dad have gone short !!!1

(I still have BHP long though but shorted the British listed one)


----------



## zhang66777 (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> I'm glad me and my Dad have gone short !!!1
> 
> (I still have BHP long though but shorted the British listed one)




would you mind to tell me what the british listed one is, and where i can find it, thanks a lot


----------



## zhang66777 (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am quite new here, would you, any experienced trader, mind to tell me have you seen us  or australia or whatever market has fallen for 10 days in a row without any breath, please tell me, thanks.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



zhang66777 said:


> I am quite new here, would you, any experienced trader, mind to tell me have you seen us  or australia or whatever market has fallen for 10 days in a row without any breath, please tell me, thanks.





Try 2002-03. Several times in one 12 mth period......


----------



## zhang66777 (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> Try 2002-03. Several times in one 12 mth period......




sorry, i didn't  get you, i couldn't find any fall in 10 days row without 1 or 2 day breath from the image you attached, usually 7-9 days fall then 1-2 days breath, am i wrong, please correct me, thanks


----------



## Sean K (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



zhang66777 said:


> sorry, i didn't  get you, i couldn't find any fall in 10 days row without 1 or 2 day breath from the image you attached, usually 7-9 days fall then 1-2 days breath, am i wrong, please correct me, thanks



Are you from the Guiness Book of Records zhang? 

Don't be too concerned, it will stop falling one day.....

I hope you're not a retiree who recently got their super paid out and put it all in a US/UK property trust....


----------



## rub92me (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wouldn't be surprised by a bit of a bounce in the afternoon. (Some rate cutting rumours from the US, plus the generally oversold market. I'm tempted myself to use some of my cash to buy some 'bargains', but then again today's bargain could be tomorrow's disaster - catching falling knives and all that. )


----------



## MS+Tradesim (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



zhang66777 said:


> sorry, i didn't  get you, i couldn't find any fall in 10 days row without 1 or 2 day breath from the image you attached, usually 7-9 days fall then 1-2 days breath, am i wrong, please correct me, thanks




It wasn't clear from your post that you meant 1 or 2 days breath. To me, that is not stopping for breath. But if you want to be technical, then no I don't think in the chart I posted there are any strict falls of 10 days.

It's pretty much irrelevant though. The markets are going down and it will bottom when it bottoms. As has been said many times by many people, there will be sucker rallies on the way down.


----------



## dhukka (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



zhang66777 said:


> sorry, i didn't  get you, i couldn't find any fall in 10 days row without 1 or 2 day breath from the image you attached, usually 7-9 days fall then 1-2 days breath, am i wrong, please correct me, thanks




In the last 24 years I could only find one instance of the XAO falling 10 days straight,

9/13/1990	1494.9	*-1.2%* 
9/14/1990	1480.1	*-1.0%* 
9/17/1990	1477.4	*-0.2%* 
9/18/1990	1472.3	*-0.3%* 
9/19/1990	1451.7	*-1.4%* 
9/20/1990	1446.8	*-0.3%* 
9/21/1990	1428	 *-1.3%* 
9/24/1990	1412.5	*-1.1%* 
9/25/1990	1393.8	*-1.3%* 
9/26/1990	1385.7	*-0.6%*


----------



## Nyden (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rub92me said:


> Wouldn't be surprised by a bit of a bounce in the afternoon. (Some rate cutting rumours from the US, plus the generally oversold market. I'm tempted myself to use some of my cash to buy some 'bargains', but then again today's bargain could be tomorrow's disaster - catching falling knives and all that. )




I decided to take the plunge & make a couple of purchases, so far sitting on small losses. Starting to think it was a mistake! Although, even cash isn't "king", as interest rates don't even keep up with inflation! 


The fact that I've bought, means we'll go down tomorrow :

Is this a record though? Surely we're close to it! 10 days of straight losses, just amazing. Then again, no one complained when we had 10 days of straight gains.

I think for sentiments sake we need at least one green day, just to lift the mood.

& dhukka, wouldn't it be exciting then if tomorrow we broke the record!


----------



## zhang66777 (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> It wasn't clear from your post that you meant 1 or 2 days breath. To me, that is not stopping for breath. But if you want to be technical, then no I don't think in the chart I posted there are any strict falls of 10 days.
> 
> It's pretty much irrelevant though. The markets are going down and it will bottom when it bottoms. As has been said many times by many people, there will be sucker rallies on the way down.




thanks a lot, i am just learning how to find the suitable point to short, i am not sure the market will keep going down without any rally or it will have one sucker rally on the way down, i guess you answered my question, thanks a lot


----------



## zhang66777 (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> In the last 24 years I could only find one instance of the XAO falling 10 days straight,
> 
> 9/13/1990	1494.9	*-1.2%*
> 9/14/1990	1480.1	*-1.0%*
> ...




thank you so much to dig so deep for me, really appreciate


----------



## dhukka (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just some more pointless statistics;

This is one of the worst runs I could find. XAO fell 17 out of 19 sessions in late 1984. 

*11/19/1984	775.1	-0.9%
11/20/1984	771.2	-0.5%
11/21/1984	774.3	0.4%
11/22/1984	772.7	-0.2%
11/23/1984	770.1	-0.3%
11/26/1984	765.6	-0.6%
11/27/1984	752.5	-1.7%
11/28/1984	751.2	-0.2%
11/29/1984	745.3	-0.8%
11/30/1984	749	0.5%
12/3/1984	740.1	-1.2%
12/4/1984	737.7	-0.3%
12/5/1984	737.6	0.0%
12/6/1984	727.2	-1.4%
12/7/1984	726.1	-0.2%
12/10/1984	724.2	-0.3%
12/11/1984	724	0.0%
12/12/1984	721.2	-0.4%
12/13/1984	716.4	-0.7%
*


----------



## zhang66777 (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Just some more pointless statistics;
> 
> This is one of the worst runs I could find. XAO fell 17 out of 19 sessions in late 1984.
> 
> ...




would you mind to tell me where you found this kind of info,  by the way, you think that is pointless, then would you mind to tell me the market direction in your opinion, it will fall straight to 5500 or this week some time it will become green for one or two days then fall again or before 5500, it will stop falling somewhere

i am just totally lost, welcome any opinion, thanks


----------



## Sean K (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



zhang66777 said:


> would you mind to tell me the market direction in your opinion, it will fall straight to 5500 or this week some time it will become green for one or two days then fall again or before 5500, it will stop falling somewhere
> 
> i am just totally lost, welcome any opinion, thanks



 If we knew this with any certainty, we would all be gazillionaires. 

I think you are right with what you say above. 100% certainly a possibility.


----------



## Real1ty (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



zhang66777 said:


> would you mind to tell me where you found this kind of info,  by the way, you think that is pointless, then would you mind to tell me the market direction in your opinion, it will fall straight to 5500 or this week some time it will become green for one or two days then fall again or before 5500, it will stop falling somewhere
> 
> i am just totally lost, welcome any opinion, thanks




zhang.

By the sounds of things you are an experienced investor/trader so the best thing for you to do is make up your mind before you do anything.

You said, you are lost, that's ok.
Then what you need to do is work out, with as much confidence as you can, where you think the market is going to go in the short term and long term

You won't lose any physical money by not buying, only what you MIGHT have made.
Nobody on here can tell you where or when the bottom of the market is but most can tell you which direction they think the market is heading.

That's a starting point for you, where do you think the market is heading, down, up or sideways?

Don't get too technical and try and pick bottoms and bounces etc, work out the actual trend or direction you believe it is going to take first.


----------



## dhukka (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



zhang66777 said:


> would you mind to tell me where you found this kind of info,  by the way, you think that is pointless, then would you mind to tell me the market direction in your opinion, it will fall straight to 5500 or this week some time it will become green for one or two days then fall again or before 5500, it will stop falling somewhere
> 
> i am just totally lost, welcome any opinion, thanks




You can get this info by downloading historical prices from Yahoo Finance. Only goes back to 1984 for the XAO but much further for US indices. I like looking at statistics like these but I think they are pointless to a certain degree in that they are of little use in predicting the future. 

Where do I think the market is going? I think kennas answered that as well as anyone could. I have no idea and have little interest in picking bottoms. About as specific as I can be is to say that I think it will go down further from here. That doesn't mean it won't bounce. In fact I fully expect we will get some short sharp clearing rallies but they will ultimately fail and the market will continue lower.


----------



## zhang66777 (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> zhang.
> 
> By the sounds of things you are an experienced investor/trader so the best thing for you to do is make up your mind before you do anything.
> 
> ...




thanks a lot, make my mind much more clear.


----------



## zhang66777 (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> You can get this info by downloading historical prices from Yahoo Finance. Only goes back to 1984 for the XAO but much further for US indices. I like looking at statistics like these but I think they are pointless to a certain degree in that they are of little use in predicting the future.
> 
> Where do I think the market is going? I think kennas answered that as well as anyone could. I have no idea and have little interest in picking bottoms. About as specific as I can be is to say that I think it will go down further from here. That doesn't mean it won't bounce. In fact I fully expect we will get some short sharp clearing rallies but they will ultimately fail and the market will continue lower.




totally agree, thanks


----------



## mfp (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



e:)vwatkins said:


> im so glad i sold everything yesterday




Me too, sold off the last 30% of my holdings yesterday. I'm loving this today, don't want to offend anyone but i really do hope the market heads towards 5000 and below now as i suspect it will.


----------



## GreatPig (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just took a quick look back along the XAO to the '87 crash, and since then, the biggest peak to trough drop I can see (from visual inspection only) before a new significant upward period was from mid '89 to the start of '91, when it fell from about 1782 down to about 1204. That's a 32.4% drop.

The next biggest looks to me to be the period between Mar 2002 and Mar 2003, where it dropped from about 3440 down to about 2666. That's a 22.5% drop.

From the most-recent high (based on the close value) at around 6854, a 22.5% drop would take it to about 5312, and a 32.4% drop to about 4633. 5800 is a drop of 15.4%. 5312 is back to about the May 2006 peak, while 4633 is around the Sept 2005 peak.

So there's still room for more...

GP

Edit: the '87 crash itself was about 50%.


----------



## kash (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> That's what we want, all out panic, to make things nice and cheap. Although the last time we looked likely for a big sell-off Helicopter Ben came in with mid meeting cut to the discount rate, any bets on a mid meeting rate cut tonight?




Is the mid meeting cut tonight? They are saying .5%. Could this stop our free fall!!! The aussie market in general is still quite strong


----------



## Nyden (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kash said:


> Is the mid meeting cut tonight? They are saying .5%. Could this stop our free fall!!! The aussie market in general is still quite strong




Kash, it's a rumor. Probably won't substantiate to anything


----------



## Synergy (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kash said:


> Is the mid meeting cut tonight? They are saying .5%. Could this stop our free fall!!! The aussie market in general is still quite strong




You would have to assume a .5% cut would be just about fully built into the market now? a .75% cut my lift spirits but geez this is getting hard to take.


----------



## grace (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From the posts I read today, everyone thinks we are in a bear market, would that be correct.  Is there much hope of reaching our previous high this year?


----------



## Nyden (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



grace said:


> From the posts I read today, everyone thinks we are in a bear market, would that be correct.  Is there much hope of reaching our previous high this year?




Hmm, I don't think that's correct. A lot of people still believe this to be a correction. 

Well, fortunately we're at the beginning of the year, a whole 12 months left to perhaps recover  Or do a lot more damage!

I think the general consensus is that no one really knows where our bottom is. No one knows if the US will be able to lift spirits, there's just a lot of theory out there, but very little fact.


----------



## dhukka (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kash said:


> Is the mid meeting cut tonight? They are saying .5%. Could this stop our free fall!!! The aussie market in general is still quite strong




Mid-meeting cut is a rumour, Wall Street supposedly sold off last night partially because they didn't get a mid meeting cut. IMO, being only 2 weeks from a Fed meeting I have my doubts that the Fed will cut before then. Even if they do I expect it to to have the same effect the last 3 rate cuts have had. 

That is that there will be a short sharp rally that will fail to break through new highs and we will ultimately end up lower than we are today.


----------



## Real1ty (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Grace.

Hopefuly this will help

What do you think it would take to turn around the market and give investors some positive sentiment?

Then ask yourself

What are the chances of that happening

Nyden: There is never any fact in the future direction of a sharemarket but there is plenty of facts to be researched and how many of them are positive?


----------



## mayk (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Market especially in US is acting quite stupid. Intel gave a 51% increase in profit and its stock price was hammered. What else do you except 100%? In normal scenario it would have lifted the stock price a bit higher.. We are living in crazy times. 

Because of the current market sentiment I donot think we will see a bull in the first quater of this year, after intel smashing I don't think anyone else will be spared unless like IBM it exceeds -some god forsaken expectation.

I have decided to convert all my holdings into cash ( I am a fool for not doing it earlier ), and wait for this mad-rush-to-bottom to finish and then will start shopping around for the best oranges in the market. 

Now nothing matters it seems majority of the banks and financial institutions want a recession so that they can be rescued by US government and Fed. I think major players are manipulating the US stock market and 'engineering' a crash.


----------



## explod (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Hmm, I don't think that's correct. A lot of people still believe this to be a correction.
> 
> Well, fortunately we're at the beginning of the year, a whole 12 months left to perhaps recover  Or do a lot more damage!
> 
> I think the general consensus is that no one really knows where our bottom is. No one knows if the US will be able to lift spirits, there's just a lot of theory out there, but very little fact.





A lot of theory and little fact.  You have to be joking or are we on different planets.

Fact is the US have overspent for the last 15years, are now in massive debt and the party is over.   Poor old humpty dumpty.


----------



## Kauri (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The market has pretty much been obeying Newtons law since the start of November... the only thing that has changed is that the _investors_ pain threshold is coming into view... I thunk..

I'm missing terms like.. 
It's not a loss until you sell..
Bought more because they are cheaper.(as opposed to buying more because it is performing the way I planned)..
It's different this time..

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Nyden (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> A lot of theory and little fact.  You have to be joking or are we on different planets.
> 
> Fact is the US have overspent for the last 15years, are now in massive debt and the party is over.   Poor old humpty dumpty.




Heh, I've been misunderstood.

In reference to the theory/fact argument - I of course mean as to which direction the markets are heading. Of course it's fact that it's a big mess, but I refer to theory as in the theory of interest rate cuts, the theory of a continuing commodity demand from Asia, & the theory of many other factors; negative or positive. Basically, anything of the future. All of which is conjecture. 

Which is why no one can truly say what is going to happen for the remainder of the year.


----------



## dhukka (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mayk said:


> Market especially in US is acting quite stupid. Intel gave a 51% increase in profit and its stock price was hammered. What else do you except 100%? In normal scenario it would have lifted the stock price a bit higher.. We are living in crazy times.
> 
> Because of the current market sentiment I donot think we will see a bull in the first quater of this year, after intel smashing I don't think anyone else will be spared unless like IBM it exceeds -some god forsaken expectation.
> 
> ...




You may want to ask yourself, who is the stupid one? Intel got smacked because they missed earnings expectations for the fourth quarter and they also guided lower than the market was expecting for the first quarter of 2008. 

IBM rallied because they beat expectations significantly. Do you see how that works? Considering that the market is basically down on its hands and knees pleading for rate cuts the conspiracy theory doesn't hold much water. 

Once again it seems someone is spitting the dummy because reality didn't do what they wanted it to.


----------



## wavepicker (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> 28 Nov
> 
> WP, Have you officially revised this view as the time cycles for the 7100 high seems a little off.
> 
> ...





Hello kennas, sorry for the late reply as not much time at present. 

The scenario I put forward has obviously not materialized, the break of the Dec low invalidated it. There was never any doubt these declines would come but I expected then to come after a another rally(but not necessarily to new highs) ending in Feb but it came early instead. This happens sometimes in ED patterns and it would have been easier to pick with that last leg up though!!

This is a strong third wave down and is yet to finish.

I expected this bull trend to end early last year but it extended. Look at the chart attached below(SP500). These are cycle points or points in time that repeat within a chosen cycle. These are a TIME study only NOT price magnitude.  Point 16(purple) is the one that is of interest. Cast your eye back to the left of the chart in 1987 you will also notice another point 16. It is just to the left of the vertical red line. Twenty years later I have again plotted that line(1 super long term cycle) and I would have expected to once again reach a peak at that cycle point 16 just to the left of that red line. The problem here is that I am talking about an accuracy of 5-8 bars and on this chart each bar is 1 month and that when it becomes difficult to pinpoint accurately, suffice to say the warning signs are there because it was due mid last year.

You will also notice that from one purple cycle to another point there other green coloured numbers. The most you can have is 3 of these between each successive purple cycle point and the last one comes either on time or EARLY.

Now look at the next chart. I have zoomed in here and viewing the next time cycle down(4 year cycle). The last green cycle point 3 is expected just to right of vertical blue line. That is where I expected it to finish. In this time frame the distance between the same coloured vertical lines is 4 years(1 cycle). The last time the blue vertical line occured was early 2004. The green 3 is just to the right of this line.

On this occasion it came early and this does not happen often. As mentioned earlier you cannot have more than 3 green cycle points in between 2 successive purple cycle points. The last green cycle point within that series will come ON TIME OR EARLY. Well on this time it came early(in October). At the time I was not sure then if we needed another leg up to  coincide  with green number 3 due in Feb/March which could well now end up being a low.

Presently working to try and improve the accuracy, although this pretty good especially in the smaller cycle timeframes(ie daily charts). These cycle points coincide nicely with completed EW waves. Once a long term cycle point is known then one approximately knows when the next one will occur. One can then estimate potential points in time in forward timeframes from years before. When multiple cycles of different degrees of trend culminate in the same aproximate rime zone then large moves can be anticipated.




Hope this helps 

Cheers


----------



## CamKawa (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> Grace.
> 
> Hopefuly this will help
> 
> What do you think it would take to turn around the market and give investors some positive sentiment?



What turned it around in 1987?


----------



## cordelia (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Hello kennas, sorry for the late reply as not much time at present.
> 
> The scenario I put forward has obviously not materialized, the break of the Dec low invalidated it. There was never any doubt these declines would come but I expected then to come after a another rally(but not necessarily to new highs) ending in Feb but it came early instead. This happens sometimes in ED patterns and it would have been easier to pick with that last leg up though!!
> 
> ...




That is very scarey....Thanks for posting that chart. I had a  bad feeling about all of this so I staterd selling off all my stocks last week. I have lost a lot of money this last month but I just got tired of watching it disappear. 

I am sure there will be a slight recovery but where to? I am a long term investor and normally this sort of drop wouldn't bother me. How long it would take to recover from a crash is anyone's guess and I can't wait for 3 or 4 years to get my money back.  MQG's price drop was a worry today.

I'll come back when its not so nerve racking....


----------



## numbercruncher (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> What turned it around in 1987?




Time, around about a decade


----------



## wavepicker (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cordelia said:


> That is very scarey....Thanks for posting that chart. I had a  bad feeling about all of this so I staterd selling off all my stocks last week. I have lost a lot of money this last month but I just got tired of watching it disappear.





I understand your pain, I went through it back 2000 during the dotcom crash promised myself never to be caught in that situation again. 

Have spent years since trying to gain as much knowlege as I can since about markets and be better prepared next time.

Cheers


----------



## explod (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Heh, I've been misunderstood.
> 
> In reference to the theory/fact argument - I of course mean as to which direction the markets are heading. Of course it's fact that it's a big mess, but I refer to theory as in the theory of interest rate cuts, the theory of a continuing commodity demand from Asia, & the theory of many other factors; negative or positive. Basically, anything of the future. All of which is conjecture.
> 
> Which is why no one can truly say what is going to happen for the remainder of the year.




Happier with this input except that I'd bet my sox that we will not have a stockmarket uptick this year  like 07.  In fact my hairdresser would probably correctly predict a down year.   When he does it will be time to buy the good ones again.

But like all, not happy with the current turn of events though.

Even stopped out of my blue chip goldies today


----------



## explod (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Heh, I've been misunderstood.
> 
> In reference to the theory/fact argument - I of course mean as to which direction the markets are heading. Of course it's fact that it's a big mess, but I refer to theory as in the theory of interest rate cuts, the theory of a continuing commodity demand from Asia, & the theory of many other factors; negative or positive. Basically, anything of the future. All of which is conjecture.
> 
> Which is why no one can truly say what is going to happen for the remainder of the year.




Happier with this input except that I'd bet my sox that we will not have a stockmarket uptick this year  like 07.  In fact my hairdresser would probably correctly predict a down year.   When he does it will be time to buy the good ones again.

But like all, not happy with the current turn of events though.

Even stopped out of my blue chip goldies today


----------



## theasxgorilla (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> Time, around about a decade




Yes, yet I would be quite confident (even without having the precise data needed to backtest) that there was still plenty of bullmarket-esque, periods during the ensuing 10 years.  Good if you turned on a LTTF system after the '87 collapse, or your LTTF got you out without too drastic a drawdown.


----------



## Whiskers (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking at the standard deviation channel for the last 28 years (yellow) we potentially have room for a decent correction. Even though we seem to have broken down from the current Bull trend, I'm still thinking we've had a bit of over-kill for the moment and are due for a bit of a bounce.

Just out of interest, can someone post a standard deviation channel chart from further back.


----------



## Synergy (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lets all draw on the same graph... Just wanted to put it into perspective...


----------



## willow (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The head and shoulders on the XJO has come pretty close to hitting the minimum expected target to-day. I notice a lot of times these targets can be accurate and a lot of times they are not. I also posted the head and shoulders top in 1987 to show you what I mean. Still more to come yet I'd say, I was waiting for a flag or even some rest time by now but looking back at the top of some bull runs this sought of behavior can be seen. Cheers.


----------



## Lucky_Country (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I try not too forget the fundamentals of why I invested.
AUS companies on a whole in pretty good shape.
AUS has things the rest of the world wants Iron Ore, Coal, Gas, Uranium, being the main ones IMO.
Short term pain long term gain I never seem too be able too pick the bottom and am down on a few investment BHP being the most suprising one. That being said I have no doubts it will recover and make me a profit in a near term time frame as will alot of other stocks on the xao.
Technical CORRECTION Fundamental BULL is my point of view.


----------



## treefrog (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Synergy said:


> Lets all draw on the same graph... Just wanted to put it into perspective...




so very roughly 1300% pa since '82, so mean growth gives a correction target of 4000??


----------



## motorway (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

“If winter is here, can spring be far behind?”
Percy B. Shelley

And THAT is the question

Not how long it takes to make new highs
But how long before something starts going up...


At the Winter solstice... Rituals were needed to remind those who had forsaken all hope that... EVERYTHING is cycles and that good times would return..

Minds think in straight lines.. when nature is all curves..

Identifying bottoms IS important ( not picking, not guessing etc )

For that We need a good clock in order to have any chance of pinpointing the 
"shortest day"

Yes , Percy, unfortunately spring can be far behind...
But yes it will come...

Update of some charts that have been posted previously...

Daily bar and volume overlaid with
bullish percent
percent above 200 EMA
A/D

and cumulative up down volume ( of every stock in the XAO )
( You can see some nice divergences earlier BUT NONE NOW )

also the same P&F previously posted
It could start soon start to define a larger distribution pattern .

there is following
there is reacting
then there is responding

A good start at an inductive analysis ( working from the technical position of particular stocks rather than the action of the composite index )

Google will give some good background to bullish percent
( Like all P&F it is a timeless chart that times ( who or what draws the columns ? )

some info previously posted



motorway


----------



## treefrog (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> so very roughly 1300% pa since '82, so mean growth gives a correction target of 4000??




big whoops! - lose the "pa", should have been 1300% since '82


----------



## theasxgorilla (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Synergy said:


> Lets all draw on the same graph... Just wanted to put it into perspective...




For sure...not much is going to substitute for the vigour of a prolonged bull market like pre-'87 and '03-'07.  However, if you are running a LTTF system those little rises I marked up on the chart are tradable.  And if conditions were such that your system managed to latch onto a handful of beneficiaries during these positive periods then you will be adding to your equity during them and maintaining that equity during the inevitable declines.  In otherwords, what the newspapers and forum posters are reporting as bad times eg. "now we're in a bear market", "it's not as good as it once was!", "the bullmarket is dead!" etc. can still include periods with agreeable conditions for operators of LTTF systems.

LTTF = Long Term Trend Following.

ASX.G


----------



## cordelia (16 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> I try not too forget the fundamentals of why I invested.
> AUS companies on a whole in pretty good shape.
> AUS has things the rest of the world wants Iron Ore, Coal, Gas, Uranium, being the main ones IMO.
> Short term pain long term gain I never seem too be able too pick the bottom and am down on a few investment BHP being the most suprising one. That being said I have no doubts it will recover and make me a profit in a near term time frame as will alot of other stocks on the xao.
> Technical CORRECTION Fundamental BULL is my point of view.




That may be true but when you buy a share you are not buying a product. You are buying it to sell again (hopefully for a profit) like everyone else. There's no intrinsic value. Shares prices move based on human ideas about certain things and that's all Therefore consumer confidence is extremely important and the recent sell offs say it all as far as I am concerned. That is also a fundamental!

I have always bought stocks for the long term based on fundamentals but   these are the ones i 
 have lost money in by getting out of the market at this point. It may rebound but it may not but I KNOW I won't lose anymore money. That's more important to me than losing the opportunity to make more money in a market that is just too volatile and dependent on many hidden factors and maybe having to wait three to four years for it get back to previous levels.

I am not a gambler. I  only let my shares devalue to the point where I could use the loss as a CGT offset. It began to surpass that point. If there is a real  drop in the share market then I want to have some money left to pick up the bargains and not have to wait until prices go up again. I have done enough wishful thinking in the last few months.

I think its important to look at statistics but examine the facts. Look at what is happening with credit. Its so obvious what will happen. When people run out of money ( and that includes big intitutions) they have to start selling things (shares included) and because they are desperate they will take what they can get. Those who have cash are the winners.

Where's all the cash gone that has been liquidated from the sale of shares recently? Somewhere else and I can't see it coming back anytime soon. I for one won't be putting my cash back in the market until this US sub-prime stuff has bottomed out and I am sure I am not alone. I don't believe I am being pessemistic just a realist.

In today's fin review p16. there is an article regarding Goldman Sachs the worlds largest securities firm, describing how they bet on the decline of the sub-prime mortgage market for most of last year and hedged against it. I believe that the entire truth has yet to be revealed and those who know it already have already positioned themselves to deal with it.

my thoughts only and after all only my opinion

this is an interesting article

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:dow_theory


----------



## nizar (17 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> For sure...not much is going to substitute for the vigour of a prolonged bull market like pre-'87 and '03-'07.  However, if you are running a LTTF system those little rises I marked up on the chart are tradable.  And if conditions were such that your system managed to latch onto a handful of beneficiaries during these positive periods then you will be adding to your equity during them and maintaining that equity during the inevitable declines.  In otherwords, what the newspapers and forum posters are reporting as bad times eg. "now we're in a bear market", "it's not as good as it once was!", "the bullmarket is dead!" etc. can still include periods with agreeable conditions for operators of LTTF systems.
> 
> LTTF = Long Term Trend Following.
> 
> ASX.G




Interesting how you have this view yet you are still not up and running.
There will never be a perfect time to enter the market, this can only be seen in hindsight.
Remember what your main man Curtis Faith said about outcome bias ?


----------



## zhang66777 (17 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

any comments about today's market, why here is so quiet today


----------



## Sean K (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Hello kennas, sorry for the late reply as not much time at present.
> 
> Cheers



Thanks WP. I note you're using the SP500 for the analysis. You're assuming then that we will move in concert with the US, and/or you are trading the SP500? kennas


----------



## Nyden (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Do *any indicators* say we're due for some kind of bounce? Even a 'sucker' rally? It is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain a long-term view throughout all this.

What's the highest interest rate paying savings account? 

I myself tend to bounce back with confidence once a little sunshine hits (one measly day of green!). But we haven't had it in what feels like weeks.

I would *think*, with the upcoming US rate cuts, the earnings report season, that we would be going sideways / gaining here...apparently not.


----------



## wayneL (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Do *any indicators* say we're due for some kind of bounce? Even a 'sucker' rally? It is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain a long-term view throughout all this.



Indicators don't tell you a thing that price/volume doesn't already tell you. They're just artificial mathematical constructs.


----------



## theasxgorilla (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> *Interesting how you have this view yet you are still not up and running*.
> There will never be a perfect time to enter the market, this can only be seen in hindsight.
> Remember what your main man Curtis Faith said about outcome bias ?




Don't forget start date bias.  Be my guest, drive your system headlong into a bear market. :

All things in good time Niz.  Whats the hurry, am I missing out on something?

BTW, Curtis isn't my main man...*I* am my main man!


----------



## >Apocalypto< (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Thanks WP. I note you're using the SP500 for the analysis. You're assuming then that we will move in concert with the US, and/or you are trading the SP500? kennas




I speak with WP fair bit, so I think I can answer this one for you. WP please correct me if i am wrong with anything.

WP uses the S&P500 as it shows a much broader spread of us stocks. the dow only covers the top 30, s&p shows 500 stocks. that can help u see more on a wider scale of what's happening in the us market.

Now is WP trading the S&P last time we spoke no but with all the short money on offer, that may be a yes and best if WP clarifies it! 

This seams different to any correction I have seen on the xao from 2003 but April 05 was also a big one. Last August I am still connecting to the current problems. what worries me this time is that we have been in a long bull market for over 4 years and we have tangible sickness in the worlds largest economy, perfect excuse for fear to take over from greed. I think it all depends on what point you bought into the trend, will determine how uneasy you may be feeling right now, but that's  personal opinion only.


----------



## nizar (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Don't forget start date bias.  Be my guest, drive your system headlong into a bear market. :




Who was to know in October that this would be a bear market?
Unless of course -- you are a hindsight trader! :


----------



## Bronte (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

SPI made its Record High on 1st November 2007
20 years previously on 19th October 1987
The All Ords was then the Physical.


----------



## wayneL (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bronte said:


> SPI made its Record High on 1st November 2007
> 20 years previously on 19th October 1987
> The All Ords was then the Physical.



What is the significance of this?


----------



## >Apocalypto< (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> What is the significance of this?




that is exactly what i was going to ask!


----------



## Sean K (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I've had 5650 as key long term support and I'd expect a technical bounce from around here. 

Haven't seen the RSI that low for quite some time...


----------



## Bronte (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bronte said:


> SPI made its Record High on 1st November 2007
> 20 years previously on 19th October 1987
> The All Ords was then the Physical.



Just a very interesting fact.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I would be going long TLS. The brokers will be making many a call today.

MARGIN CALLS!!

The panic we had to have?


----------



## wayneL (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bronte said:


> Just a very interesting fact.



So is the date of the Gettysburg address, wgat is interesting about it?


----------



## tech/a (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Come on Wayne!

11/2/any year is important for me!
Its my birthday.
While this repeats fine!

Significance maybe seen by some and not others.


----------



## Bronte (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thank you


----------



## GreatPig (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> So is the date of the Gettysburg address



You know, for many years I always thought the Gettysburg address was where someone lived... 

GP


----------



## wayneL (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bronte said:


> Thank you



Why mention it if you once again refuse to state the significance of the dates.... and 2 months in hindsite.

Easy question, if indeed you have an answer.


----------



## tech/a (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm seeing shake outs on lots of charts followed now buy very strong volumes in buying.

Could well be the brakes being applied.


----------



## powerkoala (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

do we have our own PPT to stop this madness?
12 days down in the row.. and now xao already hit the bottom when august correction was.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Futures are looking good right across Asia all made lows in the first couple of minutes trade and pushed higher.

The last couple of reversals from big down trends have started in Asia the day after a big plunge in the US. So far So good.


----------



## theasxgorilla (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> The panic we had to have?




Haha, took the words right out of my mouth.


----------



## dhukka (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> do we have our own PPT to stop this madness?
> 12 days down in the row.. and now xao already hit the bottom when august correction was.




If you are going to succumb to your emotions and join the panic (which I fully encourage) at least have the decency to get your facts straight. This is the *10th* day in a row the market has been down. The market was up 12.8 points on January 4th. You don't count weekends you see. Secondly, we are not yet at August lows. On August 16th we hit a low of *5,490.80* on the XAO.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> If you are going to succumb to your emotions and join the panic (which I fully encourage) at least have the decency to get your facts straight. This is the *10th* day in a row the market has been down. The market was up 12.8 points on January 4th. You don't count weekends you see. Secondly, we are not yet at August lows. On August 16th we hit a low of *5,490.80* on the XAO.




Keep em Honest dhukka!

*
Bronte*

I also want to know the meaning of your dates.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here comes the Tiger to Kill the Bear.(for a day or two?)

Japan is nearly Green, Korea not far behind. Hong Kong trying hard.


----------



## GreatPig (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think I'm going to end up close to green today as well now.

And with today looking like it's going to end with a gapped hammer bar, I'm staying long for the weekend.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## powerkoala (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

wow...
120 pts rebound????
what is going on??


----------



## tech/a (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I'm seeing shake outs on lots of charts followed now buy very strong volumes in buying.
> 
> Could well be the brakes being applied.





Saw it at 10 am!
Thats whats going on!


----------



## sails (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Between BHP and the banks, it looks like panic buying this afternoon!  Be interesting to see how it proceeds from here...


----------



## Kauri (18 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> wow...
> 120 pts rebound????
> what is going on??




A well timed leak is as good as a rate cut anyday...
 stock markets recovering amid talk that the US government stimulus package will be rushed through and could be upped to *150 BLN USD* from the 100 BLN originally floated. The NY Times says that Democratic leaders are encouraged by talks with Bush and hopes are high that a compromise can be reached so that the package can be introduced within the one to two month time frame that Bernanke said would be necessary to have an impact. The FT reports that some sources say that the package could be as high as *150 BLN USD*.The old rumours of the Fed  announcing an emergency rate cut are still doing the rounds, but I think everyone is tired of it already.
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Awesomandy (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO has been down 10 days in a row, and with DJI slightly lower as well, there's every chance that we'll be down for 11 straight days. I'm just wondering, what is the longest continous falls in the history of XAO? 7, 8 days happen every now and then, but 10 is cutting it pretty close, I would think?


----------



## tech/a (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Evidently haven't had 10 days lower in a row for 26 years.


----------



## theasxgorilla (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Evidently haven't had 10 days lower in a row for 26 years.




That's very interesting...evidently it is different this time


----------



## mfp (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> XAO has been down 10 days in a row, and with DJI slightly lower as well, there's every chance that we'll be down for 11 straight days. I'm just wondering, what is the longest continous falls in the history of XAO? 7, 8 days happen every now and then, but 10 is cutting it pretty close, I would think?




I would say 11 straight is a certainty. We only rallied Friday on talk of a Bush rescue plan which people presumed would drive the DOW much higher. Instead, it sank again. You'd have to say a 100+ point drop is on the cards Monday.


----------



## reece55 (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> I would say 11 straight is a certainty. We only rallied Friday on talk of a Bush rescue plan which people presumed would drive the DOW much higher. Instead, it sank again. You'd have to say a 100+ point drop is on the cards Monday.




Yep, the futures point to about 70 points.....

Mind you, that doesn't mean that we will close in the red, there could still be some buying on Monday.... but boy, it's going to take a lot to motivate the players in this market and I think everyone was expecting some miracle to be relayed to the market last night in the US and quite plainly it was just selling.... err I mean business as usual.

Cheers


----------



## Gundini (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Isn't there a holiday in the States Monday? 

This may give the Local Bourse a bit of fuel, especially with little direction elsewhere, and the fact that the "all is not doom and gloom" stories are abound throughout the press. www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23075733-462,00.html I don't have the Saturday paper, but I am sure the "we can weather the storm" and "great companies at discount prices" stories will be there too. 

So, I think those in the market may enjoy a dash of Green on Monday, not before time either... Albeit while the Lemmings top up, or double down...


----------



## M34N (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gundini said:


> Isn't there a holiday in the States Monday?
> 
> This may give the Local Bourse a bit of fuel, especially with little direction elsewhere, and the fact that the "all is not doom and gloom" stories are abound throughout the press. I don't have the Saturday paper, but I am sure the "we can weather the storm" and "great companies at discount prices" stories will be there too.
> 
> So, I think those in the market may enjoy a dash of Green on Monday, not before time either... Albeit while the Lemmings top up, or double down...



Think about this:

US market Thursday down 3%, our market Friday down 3% then rallies back to only 1% down on 100+ point US futures (+1% gain), US Friday finishes -50 points (_instead_ of being positive) with banks leading the way down again on average -2%, and futures here pointing to falls of at least 1% (-75 points).

What positive is there for people to invest Monday? If anything, it is _almost _ guaranteed we will have a worse day Monday than Friday! The only bright spots on our market could be oil stocks and other basic resources. Should see the sucker rally on Friday that we had with the banks quickly evaporate, will be interesting to see the falls the financials have.

But you know what, the more I type this out, the more I realise that in this market environment, *anything can happen*. But it looks like an 11th down day in a row is certain, and surely there has to be an up day SOMEWHERE on the horizon? A technical bounce was tipped by a few here this week and that never eventuated. Looking at the SPI chart over the last month is quiet scary indeed, but IMO, things are starting to look ridiculously cheap again, irrespective of a US recession.


----------



## nikki (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*things are looking cheap on the XAO and XJO*

given that most of the solid gains in the XJO and XAO came from stocks on th XMJ the other sectors are looking wildly attractive for long term investors - except that as many of us expect they will be even more attractive in a few weeks????

many on this forum have highlighted how BHP and RIO have blinded us to how sick our charts were 11 sessions ago. well!!! things are looking even worse for those stocks which did not benefit from massive gains after the august correction.. . . . . . great buying opportunities comming up for those who are not trading short term. . . . . . . . 

good luck to all next week.  i cannot believe the SPI was showing a potential 1% gain when i went to bed last night !!!! george bush must have been very impressive indeed . . . .


----------



## Nyden (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Think about this:
> 
> US market Thursday down 3%, our market Friday down 3% then rallies back to only 1% down on 100+ point US futures (+1% gain), US Friday finishes -50 points (_instead_ of being positive) with banks leading the way down again on average -2%, and futures here pointing to falls of at least 1% (-75 points).
> 
> ...





So, we need to balance out from losses we *should* have had? That's assuming too much logic. If we're going to say that we follow the Dow to exact lengths, why didn't we rally last week on days when they did? The US has not had 11 days of losses. 

We usually seem to follow the FTSE, yet they're about 100 pts ahead of us, & I submit that we are relatively oversold as a whole. 

Maybe we've hit something close to the bottom? I just cannot see another 5 days of losses. Next week we start kicking off some earnings reports, & I've got a feeling people may be buying in ahead of those.


I think there's a chance (slim) for a green day Monday, but of course I'm sure many will be able to claim future foresight which begs to differ, bears only seem to embrace decoupling when it suits them, go figure! :


Everyone keeps saying this time is different, credit is ruined, bla-bla..., & comparing it to the major crashes we've had. Yes, this time is different! The markets will never recover! Sell! Sell your house, buy a bunch of canned food, gold, & a bunker in the woods. The world is not coming to an end. You see these absolutely ridiculous articles popping up everywhere now on how the world is essentially over, & it's utter garbage.

The US economy will flare up again, with or without inflation; it will. Do you think the people there are just going to give up on home-ownership? Car ownership? A life devoid of any luxury / stability? When I go outside, & leave these forums / the stock market, guess what? The world looks the same as it did 2 years ago. I still see people in the shop, I still see cars on the road, I still see houses being bought / sold, & I still see what I constitute as life going on.

The point is, people have become accustomed to a way of life. One way or another, the US is going to be *forced* to continue giving it to them.

_Side note_; I'm sure many things are fundamentally lacking in my argument, but this is me just fighting back for my own sentiment. I'm just a little tired of perma-bears & their end-of-world mentality, is all.


----------



## M34N (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> So, we need to balance out from losses we *should* have had? That's assuming too much logic. If we're going to say that we follow the Dow to exact lengths, why didn't we rally last week on days when they did? The US has not had 11 days of losses.
> 
> We usually seem to follow the FTSE, yet they're about 100 pts ahead of us, & I submit that we are relatively oversold as a whole.
> 
> ...



Nyden,

First things, I'm not a bear, far from it : But lets be realistic, the US economy is in shambles, even the Fed chairman Bernanke has admitted that FOMC intervention is not enough! What other alarm bells need to be rung on how serious the US downturn is?

As for us following the US trends, well, obviously it's not a perfect synchronization, but it's a fairly good indicator. What I was pointing out was that the Dow was down 3% on Thursday, and we followed suit by being down less than 1% the next day in _anticipation_ of a US rebound their Friday, which _never eventuated_. So that leaves us some 2.5% ahead/better off than the Dow. And thus, my point being, what rosy picture can be painted after those statistics? :

Either way, I agree, next week surely can't continue this ridiculous downtrend, maybe a small rally up later in the week, but again, too much uncertainty surrounds the markets at the moment and I want to see clear signs that it's safe to invest again rather than just gamble on it.


----------



## Nyden (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Nyden,
> 
> First things, I'm not a bear, far from it : But lets be realistic, the US economy is in shambles, even the Fed chairman Bernanke has admitted that FOMC intervention is not enough! What other alarm bells need to be rung on how serious the US downturn is?
> 
> ...




& I do continue to appreciate how bad their economy is. But their economy is not going to suddenly *reverse* & cease buying anything. I wouldn't touch banks, & I wouldn't touch retailers - American, & Australian. 

Meanwhile we have Asia which is still growing, we have our own country which is still growing, and I believe that our resources sector bull is alive & well, & will definitely assist our market in remaining afloat.

Well, my only stock market exposure is resources at the moment, & both of them (only 2 stocks, diversifying doesn't seem to do much lately, just gives you greater losses across even more sectors! ) announce their Q2 report on Wednesday. I cannot envision a drop either, if excellent profits are made.


Edit;
Furthermore, the FTSE only finished .01% down (in otherwords, completely flat), whilst the Hang Seng, & Nikkei finished in the *green*. I honestly believe we might follow them on Monday.


----------



## Gundini (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Think about this:
> 
> What positive is there for people to invest Monday? If anything, it is _almost _ guaranteed we will have a worse day Monday than Friday! But you know what, the more I type this out, the more I realise that in this market environment, *anything can happen*. But it looks like an 11th down day in a row is certain.




May be the people are just sick of the run of red days and may bottom fish as there is likely to be little direction from OS markets.

Maybe the Insto's will manufacture a clasic pump and dump to allow an unweighting prior to the US resuming on Tuesday. 

Either way, there will more than likely be opportunities to trade in the green on Monday and Tuesday IMO...

This is not to say the market won't finish in the red, just that you may see a little more green over those couple of days, due to:

"Dear Client,

We would like to advise that due to the Martin Luther King Holiday in the United States on Monday 21 January trading hours will be limited on some instruments".


----------



## M34N (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> & I do continue to appreciate how bad their economy is. But their economy is not going to suddenly *reverse* & cease buying anything. I wouldn't touch banks, & I wouldn't touch retailers - American, & Australian.
> 
> Meanwhile we have Asia which is still growing, we have our own country which is still growing, and I believe that our resources sector bull is alive & well, & will definitely assist our market in remaining afloat.
> 
> ...



FTSE is more weighted towards resources, which with BHP, Rio, Xstrata, Anglo American etc all closed 2%+ higher minimum (some 6-8%!), so to see the heavyweights make massive gains like that and the general market close  .01% down suggests there must of been much larger falls in other sectors of the market *cough* financials *cough*. Look at the DAX, down 1.3%. Our market is 40% weighted in financials, so there's going to be some big bleeding there. But on the flip side, resources doing well will help significantly to limit our losses, but to be green? That's a bold bet to be making in this market.

Japan and Hong Kong finishing in the green was mostly to do with the Bush $150B US package, which did what to invigorate the US market? Look at the Nikkei futures, down 1%. Same with Hang Seng. The fact still remains, the US is still the largest economy in the world, and any slow down there *will* affect China, and *that* is what will cause us to slow down, but not go into a recession.

Anyway, like you, I am only invested in resources, and again, like yourself, only in two stocks. Financials used to be a part of my portfolio, but not since October, and looking at the downtrend they've had, I am glad I made that decision.


----------



## M34N (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gundini said:


> May be the people are just sick of the run of red days and may bottom fish as there is likely to be little direction from OS markets.
> 
> Maybe the Insto's will manufacture a clasic pump and dump to allow an unweighting prior to the US resuming on Tuesday.
> 
> ...



Yes I agree, there will be pockets of green, but to suggest the whole market will be green? Based on a public holiday in the US on Monday? That's the most optimistic thing you can say about this market?

Dear god, thinking about that has made me more worried about the market on Monday, lol... :

But anyway, I do hope you're right, but lets be realistic, "maybe's" aren't enough to boost the market at the moment. We need solid, clear actions by reserve banks, governments and even corporations on solving the credit crisis and stopping the never-ending stories of mega record-breaking losses.


----------



## Kauri (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> & I do continue to appreciate how bad their economy is. But their economy is not going to suddenly *reverse* & cease buying anything. I wouldn't touch banks, & I wouldn't touch retailers - American, & Australian.
> 
> Meanwhile we have Asia which is still growing, we have our own country which is still growing, and I believe that our resources sector bull is alive & well, & will definitely assist our market in remaining afloat.
> 
> ...




 I think we tend to follow the Nikkei during the day, particularly when the U.S is off... below are what IG are showing for,,
  Dow..
  Nikkei..
  FTSE100..
  German30.. 
  Also realise that the Nikkei had a good day in part to the (rumoured) activity of the PKO..
  Soc Gen in Europe rumoured to be writing off a few more Bln.. showing possibly more sub-pain shocks yet to come from Europe..
  It may be raining on Monday..
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## IFocus (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A couple of thoughts

XAO has reached down 17% during this current move, the run down to 2003 was 23% total. 

Current market valuations are I though about the risk in 6 to 9 months not the profits about to be reported

A USA recession and flow on to Asian economies, substantial risk to earnings I would think. Note no certainties here just talking about risk and uncertainty markets hate supposed unknown risk if that’s makes sense.

Focus

PS Rich Kid understand your point about Nick but I would reaffirm Techs sentiment also make the point there are plenty of links from Chartist pointing to this site which can only be a good thing for Joe.


----------



## tech/a (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

While I feel we have reached the bottom of this move.
The retracement will not reach old highs.
Do not expect 6310 to be taken out.
Nor yesterdays low.

I'll be looking at some longs.


----------



## Real1ty (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Something that seems to have slipped under the radar in amongst all the carnage is the CPI figures are released on Wednesday.

The RBA has it's own version where they take out volatile items and that is the version they will make an interest rate judgment on.

For those considering buying back in early this week, you would want to hope the figure is lower or as expected, although they would probably be leaning towards keeping things unchanged in these times of economic uncertainty and can claim the banks have done part of their job for them....


----------



## >Apocalypto< (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> I would say 11 straight is a certainty. We only rallied Friday on talk of a Bush rescue plan which people presumed would drive the DOW much higher. Instead, it sank again. You'd have to say a 100+ point drop is on the cards Monday.




got to love positive thinking!


----------



## chops_a_must (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Saw it at 10 am!
> Thats whats going on!




I posted similiar sentiments at 10.01am on the SPI thread, and I'm just a noob. : Closed out all my shorts on the Friday open, and took a long in one thing. Would have done with more but work and not being able to be in front of the comp etc etc. Monday might be better though.

To those who want to sell/ short, be my guests. Chances are, over the next few days you will have to cover anyway. No markets I trade or watch give up lows without even the smallest fight.

I have some lengthy thoughts on the XAO, but am too exhausted to write them up at the moment. Here is some:

I'm looking at a suck up into about 6000 on the XAO, forming a bearish pennant/ bear flag, Wave iv, whatever. Which is probably similar to what Kauri is seeing.

Any break of Friday's lows and close below will be a clear sell. Any closes above (generally) the lows and below 6000, will be a buy for me.

My basic short term trade strategy on this:

The easiest (and closest) stops, are for longs. All of the "DEFINED" risk is with stops for longs. Indicating all the best R/R is with the longs for the very short term.

Fading stocks with breaks of support back to support, or preferably buying stocks on support which have not broken support.

Not wanting to hold for longer than perhaps 2 weeks at most here. Unless something unexpectedly positive happens.

Basic short term analysis:

Had an exhaustion capitulation onto support, with a sharp rally, on stopping and exceptional volume. Couple that with the philosophy of never shorting on support, you have easy conclusions from basic analysis.

Doesn't change my medium term, 12-18 month, view of this market however.

P.S. - I don't think the SPI has ever closed 11 days down in its history. I will wager it will close positive. Don't read too much into Friday night SPI trading. It's notoriously negative so far as I can see. Calls for a 100+ point fall on Monday are complete nonsense, considering there is no US trading Monday night. And it would mean a doubling of percentage losses from Friday night's US trading.


----------



## nizar (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Im expecting some sort of rally next week.

XAO the RSI is sitting on 25. The last time that happened was the August low just before the rebound. The last time before that was in 2003.

The rally may take us back to 6400/6450 at the most, but I can't see a new all time high for some time (years??).


----------



## nizar (19 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Doesn't change my medium term, 12-18 month, view of this market however.




Which is?


----------



## chops_a_must (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Which is?




A bear market that will take us down to about 4400 or just below in 3 movements. 

Lines up with fib numbers, a H&S target if it forms above, and breaks the support at 5650 ish, and perhaps even a wave count if this ends up being a W1 of 5. Would mean about an average total move for a bear market as well...


----------



## nizar (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> A bear market that will take us down to about 4400 or just below in 3 movements.
> 
> Lines up with fib numbers, a H&S target if it forms above, and breaks the support at 5650 ish, and perhaps even a wave count if this ends up being a W1 of 5. Would mean about an average total move for a bear market as well...




I'd be happy with that.
So the bottom in about 18 months?
Nice.


----------



## mfp (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> got to love positive thinking!




I'm completely out of the market and loving watching this slaughter unfold, so for me this is not only *positive thinking*, but I would say *realistic thinking*.


----------



## mfp (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> P.S. - I don't think the SPI has ever closed 11 days down in its history. I will wager it will close positive. Don't read too much into Friday night SPI trading. It's notoriously negative so far as I can see. *Calls for a 100+ point fall on Monday are complete nonsense, considering there is no US trading Monday night. And it would mean a doubling of percentage losses from Friday night's US trading*.




Complete nonsense? How you can say that astounds me. We rallied *120 points* from Friday's low based on an *expected big rally* that night on the DOW, which not only did *not eventuate* (meaning we could/should give that rally back), but it actually *fell a further 0.5%*. Based on these figures, saying the possibility of a 100+ point drop on our market Monday is complete nonsense is ridiculous. Also, I don't understand  how your comment about no US trading Monday night will prevent our market from having the losses it should have (based on what happened Friday night) on Monday. If anything it may temporarily prevent any further losses Tuesday.


----------



## Sean K (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> Complete nonsense? How you can say that astounds me. We rallied *120 points* from Friday's low based on an *expected big rally* that night on the DOW, which not only did *not eventuate* (meaning we could/should give that rally back), but it actually *fell a further 0.5%*. Based on these figures, saying the possibility of a 100+ point drop on our market Monday is complete nonsense is ridiculous. Also, I don't understand  how your comment about no US trading Monday will prevent our market from having the losses (I believe) it should have on Monday. If anything it may temporarily prevent any further losses Tuesday.



Well, we'll see on Monday mfp. You putting a dollar on a 170 point loss? I think that's what you're saying? 

I think we may touch around 5650 (-150) and bounce. The cat will be unconscious and maybe climb to around between 6000-6200 in the coming weeks until it settles into a stuper for the following 12 months ish. 

On the other hand, the market will do anything it damn well likes!!


----------



## Nyden (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> Complete nonsense? How you can say that astounds me. We rallied *120 points* from Friday's low based on an *expected big rally* that night on the DOW, which not only did *not eventuate* (meaning we could/should give that rally back), but it actually *fell a further 0.5%*. Based on these figures, saying the possibility of a 100+ point drop on our market Monday is complete nonsense is ridiculous. Also, I don't understand  how your comment about no US trading Monday night will prevent our market from having the losses it should have (based on what happened Friday night) on Monday. If anything it may temporarily prevent any further losses Tuesday.




Yes, but as I stated before MFP; that is far too *logical*. You are placing intellect on the market itself, as if it is an entity that needs to now 'make up' for losses...

(Once again, to repeat myself; this is nonsensical logic. By that argument, we're due in for some *gains* from the rallies we missed over the last 11 days!)

It does not work that way, selling is not some kind of exact science, where suddenly people sell because they should have on Friday. They aren't going to suddenly stop selling because we've now equalized with the Dow, either. They sell from their own interpretations of news, & their own fears of what the dow will do next.

As stated; these buyers / sellers, do not need to worry about what the Dow will do Monday night, because it's closed. This means there will be a lot less fear in the markets; & we may see some fundamental buying, or technical buying based on some expected rally : - especially on the resources front.


----------



## mfp (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Well, we'll see on Monday mfp. You putting a dollar on a 170 point loss? I think that's what you're saying?
> 
> I think we may touch around 5650 (-150) and bounce. The cat will be unconscious and maybe climb to around between 6000-6200 in the coming weeks until it settles into a stuper for the following 12 months ish.
> 
> On the other hand, the market will do anything it damn well likes!!




No i never said 170 point loss, that's pushing it, and no i'm not putting a dollar on anything! Lost enough of those already. But it is interesting you think -150 is a possibility for Monday and i'm talking complete nonsense for suggesting -100.


----------



## Nyden (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> No i never said 170 point loss, that's pushing it, and no i'm not putting a dollar on anything! Lost enough of those already. But it is interesting you think -150 is a possibility for Monday and i'm talking complete nonsense for suggesting -100.




Yes, but he is also expecting an afternoon rally.

I don't believe we'll see a loss that size anyway though. 
Resources are all up, gold is up, positive lead from other world markets in those sectors; so I don't expect to see much red there, if anything I hope to see green.

& If that is the case, I really can't see banks/retailers pulling us down 100pts, especially if we see green in other sectors.


----------



## wayneL (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This market is itching for a rally too. Unless more corpses float to the surface Monday, she goin' up. 

But the open will certainly be in the red... and plenty of corpses about to bob up.


----------



## mfp (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Yes, but as I stated before MFP; that is far too *logical*. You are placing intellect on the market itself, as if it is an entity that needs to now 'make up' for losses...
> 
> (Once again, to repeat myself; this is nonsensical logic. By that argument, we're due in for some *gains* from the rallies we missed over the last 11 days!)
> 
> ...




I agree with you Nyden, it is definitely not an exact science. Therefore, are you also saying that our market could actually fall "harder" than the US market? Or does the fact it is not an exact science only work in our favour? For example, rather than mention the rallies we missed over the last 11 days, what about the rallies we've had over the last 5 years that the US hasn't? Don't forget the XAO has piled on about 154% (about 2700 to 6850) from its recent bear market low to bull market high, while the DOW only rose about 102% (about 7000 to 14160).


----------



## Nyden (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> I agree with you Nyden, it is definitely not an exact science. Therefore, are you also saying that our market could actually fall "harder" than the US market? Or does the fact it is not an exact science only work in our favour? For example, rather than mention the rallies we missed over the last 11 days, what about the rallies we've had over the last 5 years that the US hasn't? Don't forget the XAO has piled on about 154% (about 2700 to 6850) from its recent bear market low while the DOW only rose about 102% (about 7000 to 14160).




There is reasoning there though. We've gone up so hard partly because of the resources boom. Quite a large % of our index is resources based, & the price of commodities has absolutely soared in the last 5 years.

& Furthermore, we're talking about short-term trends here, not 5 years back. You're mentioning us missing the "deserved" losses of Friday, & I'm mentioning missing the deserved *gains* of only a few days before then. What, we're allowed to miss gains from Tuesday, but not the losses from Friday? Pfft.

Of course it's possible for it to fall harder, but there would be no fundamentals behind it, or even fear behind it. 

The fear factor is partly negated by the fact that we're 'safe', at least until Wednesday (from a plummeting dow)

On the fundamental front, and technical front; many are saying we're oversold, & due for a bounce. Once again; I mention resources. All base metals up, FTSE, & other world markets; showed green for many resource-based stocks. Did I mention a fair % of our market is based on that? I can't foresee a 100pt drop without resource stocks coming to the anti-party


Furthermore, unless you're short in the market MFP, it isn't very nice to wish for people to continue to lose more money. : (Little sarcasm there) Perhaps it's just part of the 'lost' communication of the internet, but you're coming off sounding a little arrogant. You were fortunate enough to pick a good time to sell, & you now seem convinced that since you're out, the markets must now fall to all time lows?



mfp said:


> Or does the fact it is not an exact science only work in our favour?



Sorry, couldn't resist! :


----------



## tech/a (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thursdays low wont be taken out Monday.
Great opportunity day Monday.


----------



## mfp (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Furthermore, unless you're short in the market MFP, it isn't very nice to wish for people to continue to lose more money. : (Little sarcasm there) Perhaps it's just part of the 'lost' communication of the internet, but you're coming off sounding a little arrogant. You were fortunate enough to pick a good time to sell, & you now seem convinced that since you're out, the markets must now fall to all time lows?




If you were out of the market would you wish for it to continue to fall or reverse and go up? All time lows!! Now that would be nice.


----------



## Nyden (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> If you were out of the market would you wish for it to continue to fall or reverse and go up? All time lows!! Now that would be nice.




It may be overly selfless of me, but I always wish for the market to go up. I always wish for people to make money. If I sold out of the market, & it rallied hard for 11 days straight; although I would *kick* myself, I would of course be very happy for those still holding.


----------



## Sean K (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> No i never said 170 point loss, that's pushing it,



Yes, sorry,  you said a 120 point turn around on the rumour and then the US went down .5% which whould mean .5% for us which is about 28 points which equals 148 points.... 

And, I said that we may see 5650, as a bottom, and then a bounce, as mentioned above. Not that this was the final close.



tech/a said:


> Thursdays low wont be taken out Monday.
> Great opportunity day Monday.



I think we're a big chance for the low, but I think it will be a great opportunity too. 

However, the bears are, overall, in control right now. Damn you Wayne!!!


----------



## wayneL (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> However, the bears are, overall, in control right now. Damn you Wayne!!!



Yeah but we're doing all the bloody work at the moment, get off your @ss you bulls, we need a break!


----------



## numbercruncher (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My prediction for Monday is down 100 to 150 at close. 

But I wish all involved the very best


----------



## Sean K (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Yeah but we're doing all the bloody work at the moment, get off your @ss you bulls, we need a break!



OK. 

Short term interest rate cuts to calm and provide.
Institutions ordered to halt rate rises.
Policies to change ARM and fix easy lending principles.
Failures of morgage lending arms and liquidity distributed to continue solvency. 
Institutions with failing business units linked to easy credit/sub prime sack CEOs, change policies, and grown brains.
US citizens stop buying the latest V8 pick up, every year, and start using public transport.
China continues to grow at 10% pa for the next 15+ years and overtakes the US as the world's greatest economy around 2030 ish. 
India follows China very closely and they become the world's economic and military super powers by the year 2040. 
Australia provides India and China with the bulk of their resources over the next 20 years, supporting our economy, so that any short-mid term perceived economic fallout from the US fails to effect economic growth in Australia out to 2040 ish.
High probability of a world war concentrated in the Middle East/W Asia with 'superpowers' staking claims on energy. Depending on time frame, the US may fail to a Russian/Chinese/? coalitian - who does Australia side with? - cultural ties will probably rule
Around 2050 ish, BRIC slows down and Australia's resources become less important due to world growth and alternatives to building and construction.
Australia is in deap doo doo....

Sorry if I left out anything, but until Chindia starts to subside, I think the Aussie economy will be long term up.


----------



## GreatPig (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Another thing to consider. After the last two sharp down runs the turning point was signalled by a red bar with a long tail, as we had on Friday.

In both cases it didn't jump up the very next day, but did start to rally after 2 or 3 (trading) days. Of course the second one didn't last long, but was a small opportunity.

GP


----------



## numbercruncher (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Sorry if I left out anything, but until Chindia starts to subside, I think the Aussie economy will be long term up.





Maybe China doesnt need to Subside, maybe it wasnt as big as claimed in the first place ?



> WASHINGTON - THE size of China's economy is overestimated by some 40 per cent based on the most current measures, but it is still the world's second-largest, the World Bank said yesterday.
> 
> China still ranks as the world's second-largest economy with more than 9 per cent of world production, but that was lower compared with 14 per cent under the old methodology.




http://www.straitstimes.com/Free/Story/STIStory_187873.html


Doesnt bode so well for the Decoupling club, havnt heard much from them lately ?


----------



## wayneL (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> OK.
> 
> Short term interest rate cuts to calm and provide.
> Institutions ordered to halt rate rises.
> ...



Holy Crap! Whose side are you on?

The first 5 or 6 points would guarantee world economy megadoom!


----------



## Sean K (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Holy Crap! Whose side are you on?
> 
> The first 5 or 6 points would guarantee world economy megadoom!



Maybe I missed a few changes in direction there.

Perhaps linked around the policies, V8s and war.


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Another thing to consider. After the last two sharp down runs the turning point was signalled by a red bar with a long tail, as we had on Friday.
> 
> In both cases it didn't jump up the very next day, but did start to rally after 2 or 3 (trading) days. Of course the second one didn't last long, but was a small opportunity.
> 
> GP




One of the things that continues to amaze me is that when we reach these extreme oversold levels way to many people/novices (that's just a guess) look to the US for direction. But these reversals start in Asia not the US.

21st of Nov 05 we stopped going down and rallied the US a week later

14th of June 06 we stopped going down and rallied the US the same night.

16th of August 07 we made a low. the US did the same that night.

People still look to the US for direction without the evidence that the US is what you should be looking at.


----------



## wayneL (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> One of the things that continues to amaze me is that when we reach these extreme oversold levels way to many people/novices (that's just a guess) look to the US for direction. But these reversals start in Asia not the US.
> 
> 21st of Nov 05 we stopped going down and rallied the US a week later
> 
> ...




Blame it on the medja muppets.


----------



## dhukka (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In the interests of garnering opinions of ASF members on whether the XAO will decline 11 straight days or not and some shameless self promotion. Please visit my blog and vote in the poll on the top right. fundamentalanalyst


----------



## >Apocalypto< (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> I'm completely out of the market and loving watching this slaughter unfold, so for me this is not only *positive thinking*, but I would say *realistic thinking*.




yep agree side lines seem like the best place to be right now, I am only trading Forex so I know what u mean by enjoying the show!


----------



## bearinthere (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

def 11 straight. could be one for the record books


----------



## IFocus (20 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We have not had the climax volume day yet  heavy but no spike  because  buyers haven't stepped up or committed yet I think a little lower still but I wont have money on that opinion.


----------



## dhukka (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some more useless statistics;

Looking at data from 1950, the record for consecutive day declines on the S&P500 was *12*, back in April/May 1966 shown below. On two other occasions the S&P500 fell *11* consecutive days, November 1969 and October 1971. 

*4/22/1966	92.27	-0.2%
4/25/1966	92.08	-0.2%
4/26/1966	91.99	-0.1%
4/27/1966	91.76	-0.3%
4/28/1966	91.13	-0.7%
4/29/1966	91.06	-0.1%
5/2/1966	90.9	-0.2%
5/3/1966	89.85	-1.2%
5/4/1966	89.39	-0.5%
5/5/1966	87.93	-1.6%
5/6/1966	87.84	-0.1%
5/9/1966	86.32	-1.7%
*


----------



## Whiskers (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I'm going with those who claim a turnaround early next week.
> 
> There's still good support yet. Until 6018.9 is comprehensively broken, I'm not too worried about roaming bears.
> 
> They'll probably have to go hungry fo a bit longer yet.




Well, timing may have been a bit out,  but I think there are stronger signs that we are closer to a turnaround now. Apart from the fundamentals that Aus is in far better shape than the US (even after allowing for some decline in exports) the standard deviation channel from the previous highest high is penetrated and I woud expect a bounce to bring it back into trend, similar to last August.

There are a few days penetrating the 61.8 fib (6018.9) however the weekly candle spreads it, so I don't think it is comprehensively broken yet, until we get a weekly candle completely under the 61.8 fib and extending below 100%.

Since the uptrend from 03 seems to be broken, I'm also going with a change of trend from the August low, because that seems to be the signal that things were going to slow down a bit. So far I think the new trend for maybe the next few months or year, until the US settles down, will be more sideways with a good chance of being slowly up.

I would say we were due for a change of trend since we broke out the top of the post 87 deviation channel last April. But we are still above the mid line of the 28 year trend channel.

In summary I am leaning toward the XAO coming back to around 6,000 shortly... if it goes the other way and we get a weekly candle below the 100 fib, then I will have to conceed a bear market... maybe.

Ok bears come and get me... if you can!


----------



## heredownunder (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey Wiskers, great charts and info. What do you use for your charts?
Why did the share market basically take off from about 2003? Will this just be the third bounce off the 5600-ish mark, as previously in March and August?


----------



## Wysiwyg (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Well, timing may have been a bit out,  but I think there are stronger signs that we are closer to a turnaround now.




That`s sort of funny in a way. Possible candidate for the SFS club.


----------



## Whiskers (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



heredownunder said:


> Hey Wiskers, great charts and info. What do you use for your charts?




Thanks heredownunder, but if my judgement is not right the're not worth a cracker.

That chart is by Incredible Charts.



> Why did the share market basically take off from about 2003?




Basically, China and India started taking more resources from Aus and growing their economy faster and the US picked up a bit.



> Will this just be the third bounce off the 5600-ish mark, as previously in March and August?




Thats what I reckon... er, hope.


----------



## Whiskers (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Possible candidate for the SFS club.




Yeah, trying to keep a sense of humour in depressing times. 

But what is the SFS club?


----------



## Wysiwyg (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Yeah, trying to keep a sense of humour in depressing times.
> 
> But what is the SFS club?




Smelly Finger Syndrome (crass, I know )


----------



## Whiskers (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Smelly Finger Syndrome (crass, I know )




:nono: 

Yes, well, I'll let that one through to the keeper.


----------



## Sean K (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Holy Crap! Whose side are you on?
> 
> The first 5 or 6 points would guarantee world economy megadoom!



Wayne, just going back to this, by your comment I get the feeling you have assumed my points were supposed to be a bullish solution to the credit crisis. Far from it really. It's simply my vision of where we are headed. And in the long term, I see Australia's economy going ok. 

In the short term obviously, certain things are going to occur in an attempt to get the US out of trouble. They will try, and probably only delay real pain, but there's a chance that short term mechanisms may soften any crash, and give time for more robust policies to be put in place to set them up for a more stable long term. It is more inevitable that there will be a great deal of short term pain. No doubt. It's obviously happening now, and in the UK with housing. But, not in Australia. Yet. 

There is certainly a lot of detail missing in my broad brush predictions, but that's the way I see it going. Perhaps I need to expand on these things a little more.

It's certainly not a naive blindly bullish attempt to paint an easy solution to the systemic problems of the US and other western materialistic want it now nations.  

Would be interested to see your vision of the next 40 years.  In 10 words or less....


----------



## wayneL (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Wayne, just going back to this, by your comment I get the feeling you have assumed my points were supposed to be a bullish solution to the credit crisis.
> 
> Far from it really. It's simply my vision of where we are headed. And in the long term, I see Australia's economy going ok.
> 
> ...



I think I'd need to construct a rather complicated flow chart, as there are literally dozens of scenarios that "could" develop. Some areas I have really no clue as to how they will develop, eg, the impact of retiring boomers, peak oil/energy supply, decoupling etc would need to be thought out on an if - then basis.

The thing I am certain of is that western gu'mints will continue to seek out short term, politically expedient solutions to long term problems, sacrificing long term economic viability. China will kick the west's @ss because of this.

The thing to bear in mind is that China has a grudge against the west and will sink us if they can... but they'll use us first.

If we could imprison as Keynesians we might have half a chance. But we're on the slippery slope IMO.

Perhaps Oz will be useful as a quarry and may fair better, but that depends which way the flow chart flows.


----------



## Sean K (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Perhaps Oz will be useful as a quarry and may fair better, but that depends which way the flow chart flows.



That's more than 10 words Wayne!! 

We're already a quarry aren't we?

Yes, agree on the China comments, but they only have themselves to blame in the main for the fall from power. If they had have been a expansionist, colonising nation in the 1400s we'd all be speaking Mandarin probably. Maybe they were just biding their time..... 

Looking forward to the flow chart!! 

Hmmm, is this XAO analysis? Sorry folks.


----------



## nizar (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers.
Great chart, thanks for that contribution.

So my conclusion from that is that we could fall to 4,200 on the XAO and still be in the longterm uptrend.
Works for me.


----------



## dhukka (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> In the interests of garnering opinions of ASF members on whether the XAO will decline 11 straight days or not and some shameless self promotion. Please visit my blog and vote in the poll on the top right. fundamentalanalyst




Results from my poll are in, thanks to the fifteen people who voted, (sorry 14 I voted myself). Anyway *10* think the XAO will decline today and make it 11 straight declines. *5* are looking for the XAO to close higher.


----------



## IFocus (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> That's more than 10 words Wayne!!
> 
> We're already a quarry aren't we?
> 
> ...




Kennas other than Japan China has never had an out look of of world dominance they have a record of building rabbit proof fences and looking inwards maybe this time will be different


----------



## Uncle Festivus (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Results from my poll are in, thanks to the fifteen people who voted, (sorry 14 I voted myself). Anyway *10* think the XAO will decline today and make it 11 straight declines. *5* are looking for the XAO to close higher.




Sticking my neck out here, but I think maybe today might surprise a few people - some big sell orders being well bought into. Big daily range back to positive finish? Buying the XJO, CBA (dividend play forgotten?), OXR today.


----------



## numbercruncher (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Sticking my neck out here, but I think maybe today might surprise a few people -




kimosabe say he who sticks out neck get head chop off


----------



## Sean K (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> kimosabe say he who sticks out neck get head chop off



Confucius say, cauring EOD plices before runch end up with baurs chopped off.


----------



## wayneL (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is not going to script, who's in charge here.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Chop!. Mmmmmm....... maybe the script is still being written..... genuine panic selling today......please put me back in the bears den . Is there gonna be a bounce? Starting now?


----------



## tech/a (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wayne.

Testing Fridays low as per script.
XJO Friday 5619
Today 5622

I'll get on to it!
Expect results after lunch.


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The script is getting stretched out due to the US Holiday.
I believe the script writers have it penciled in for tomorrow just before the US open.

Which is going to hurt me I'm getting the Cucumber Rumba from swing longs.

:whip


----------



## tech/a (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> The script is getting stretched out due to the US Holiday.
> I believe the script writers have it penciled in for tomorrow just before the US open.
> 
> Which is going to hurt me I'm getting the Cucumber Rumba from swing longs.
> ...




Ahhhhhhhhhhhh!

The problem is simple.

All script writers are on Strike!

One way to get attention just cut a few 100 billion out of the economy!


----------



## ithatheekret (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm waiting for the instos to go for lunch , they may come back merrier today with any luck , the US closure creates a bit of a blackhole for the game ones , so let's hope they have one or two , too many Stellas at lunch .

When the US circus starts again , we may get an idea just how low we can go.


----------



## GreatPig (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> All script writers are on Strike!



Maybe they're just rerunning the script from "The Sting".

GP


----------



## Awesomandy (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Wayne.
> 
> Testing Fridays low as per script.
> XJO Friday 5619
> ...




I think we should be alright for now. It's back up to around the 5700 mark.


----------



## Temjin (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> I think we should be alright for now. It's back up to around the 5700 mark.




Just broke intraday low now. 35-40 mins left to go back above previous low, I doubt it. Looks like we have a "confirmed" low breakout. 

At least my gold hasn't moved a tid. hehe Though my gold shares did suffer a little bit.


----------



## mfp (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> Complete nonsense? How you can say that astounds me. We rallied *120 points* from Friday's low based on an *expected big rally* that night on the DOW, which not only did *not eventuate* (meaning we could/should give that rally back), but it actually *fell a further 0.5%*. Based on these figures, saying the possibility of a 100+ point drop on our market Monday is complete nonsense is ridiculous. Also, I don't understand  how your comment about no US trading Monday night will prevent our market from having the losses it should have (based on what happened Friday night) on Monday. If anything it may temporarily prevent any further losses Tuesday.




Errr...ummmmm.....yes, complete nonsense "chops a must"


----------



## mfp (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Yes, but as I stated before MFP; that is far too *logical*. You are placing intellect on the market itself, as if it is an entity that needs to now 'make up' for losses...
> 
> (Once again, to repeat myself; this is nonsensical logic. By that argument, we're due in for some *gains* from the rallies we missed over the last 11 days!)
> 
> ...




No, it doesn't work that way. Of course people won't suddenly sell because they should have on Friday. And yes, there will be a lot less fear in the markets today because the US market is closed tonight, so we may see some fundamental buying ...LOL  (PS XJO -122.30 as I write, just off intraday low)


----------



## mfp (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Make that XJO -141.60 with 6 mins to go, breaking Friday's low and taking out the Mar 07 and Aug 07 closing lows.


----------



## numbercruncher (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> My prediction for Monday is down 100 to 150 at close.
> 
> But I wish all involved the very best





Phew !

I was nearly wrong for the first time this year 

Ill take a chocolate browny today please


----------



## chops_a_must (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> Make that XJO -141.60 with 6 mins to go, breaking Friday's low and taking out the Mar 07 and Aug 07 closing lows.




Yep. Who would have thunk it?

Clearly it was Asia dragging us down today though. With RIO down 8%, BNB >10% and CBA down 5%, that is some serious weight.

100 points just seemed like such an arbitrary figure. Why not 150? That's where all the swing lows were.

And in my opinion, unless something is pulled out, we are in serious crash trouble for tomorrow, tomorrow night and Wednesday. Serious serious trouble. So it may be wise to cool it with those smilies and things. Even though I ended the day short, and stand to gain a lot if that does pan out, people will be ruined by this. And that's something I think you should be aware of and respectful of, because I don't think you are. What's playing out is just not good for anyone. And even though I stand to gain a lot here, I am mindful of what damage is potentially going to be done...


----------



## Gundini (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> Make that XJO -141.60 with 6 mins to go, breaking Friday's low and taking out the Mar 07 and Aug 07 closing lows.




Arhhhh.... this is why you are sooo happy.....



mfp said:


> I'm completely out of the market and loving watching this slaughter unfold, so for me this is not only *positive thinking*, but I would say *realistic thinking*.


----------



## juiceman (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All dump and no pump to-day   guy's
This is a time to be very carefull, either which way


----------



## mfp (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Yep. Who would have thunk it?
> 
> Clearly it was Asia dragging us down today though. With RIO down 8%, BNB >10% and CBA down 5%, that is some serious weight.
> 
> ...




OK I have been a bit of a smarty pants I agree, I apologise if i'm getting up people's nose. But I too have been hurt by the recent falls, it's just that i'm so relieved at my decision to get out a couple of weeks ago and save myself a fortune. Good luck to everyone over coming days and weeks.


----------



## MichaelWhyte (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> And in my opinion, unless something is pulled out, we are in serious crash trouble for tomorrow, tomorrow night and Wednesday. Serious serious trouble. So it may be wise to cool it with those smilies and things. Even though I ended the day short, and stand to gain a lot if that does pan out, people will be ruined by this. And that's something I think you should be aware of and respectful of, because I don't think you are. What's playing out is just not good for anyone. And even though I stand to gain a lot here, I am mindful of what damage is potentially going to be done...



Yep, currently sitting on $150K paper losses.  Been feeding the margin calls for a week now.  So far thrown $50K good money after bad.  Bought up big on fundamentals, BHP, NAB etc.  The pain is starting to get to the point that tomorrow looks like my exit day.  Sell down the remaining $700K worth of stock and sit it out.  Lock in $150K of losses and lick my wounds.

I keep saying: Tomorrow must be the end of the drop, but then it just keeps going.  Today broke resistance levels that I'm not comfortable with.  Just goes to show the importance of a good trailing stop loss.

At least if I exit now and wait for the turmoil to pass I'll only lock in $150K loss which is largely what I made over the last two years or so.  I'll still have cash in the bank of $130K and will be able to sleep at night again.

The pride before the fall.  Vanity is an evil curse.

Cya,
Michael.


----------



## Porper (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> And in my opinion, unless something is pulled out, we are in serious crash trouble for tomorrow, tomorrow night and Wednesday. Serious serious trouble.




Most people think the same as you Chops.Usually the crowd are wrong so could be time for a quick hard bounce.

Yes some people will get burnt and yes, maybe even ruined but to be honest it is all about protecting capital and with the strong performance over the past few years people should be able to get out without losing too much.

We can still trade but must limit losses with stops or be prepared to "invest" with a longer time frame in mind.There is no doubt that we will be higher than we are now in a few years at most.


----------



## dhukka (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Thursdays low wont be taken out Monday.
> Great opportunity day Monday.




Hmmm


----------



## Awesomandy (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> I think we should be alright for now. It's back up to around the 5700 mark.






Temjin said:


> Just broke intraday low now. 35-40 mins left to go back above previous low, I doubt it. Looks like we have a "confirmed" low breakout.




Ok... it's my bad... I jinxed it.


----------



## dhukka (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And on the 11th day the market said, "I shall smite thee that have gone long."

Well that's one for the record books, taking out the 10 consecutive day decline in 1990. This is the first time in *24* years (that's all the data I have) that the XAO declined* 11* days in a row. Any takers for tomorrow? Poll on my blog for any that are interested.


----------



## rub92me (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I fixed the problem. Changed the colour settings on my screen. Tomorrow will be green no matter what.


----------



## Bushman (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wow - and today was the biggest decline over the 11 day period. 

With no lead from the US overnight, I see no reason for a relieving rally tomorrow. We follow blindly us Aussies and if there is no lead we fumble around looking for the light switch. I think it will be down but not 160 pts - maybe 30 pts?  If the Dow tanks Tuesday night then it could be capitulation day. All time All Ords records is 13 days straight. We are on track. So while everyone is losing money, at least we will be a part of history. 

I have just enacted my rescue plan - enter BHP and wait for those bear rallies. Hope I don't have to wait 2 years or however long it takes for sub prime to recede from investors consciousness.


----------



## korrupt_1 (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Any takers for tomorrow? Poll on my blog for any that are interested.




Nice presentation of the losses... it really depicts the health of the AU Market.

Going with the pattern, I'd say tomorrow will be down between 0.1%- 0.5%. More bloody sheeding!!!!

But lets hope that's NOT the case... I pray to God that "on the 12th day, God awards all those that went long with huge gains and good fortune"


----------



## Kauri (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

..  artyman:  and on the 12th day of Christmas          
      my banker said to me...  :band         

Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## skint (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> And on the 11th day the market said, "I shall smite thee that have gone long."




lol. Hopefully day 12 won't be the market saying "I shall cleft thy portfolio in twain."


----------



## Nyden (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, you were right MFP, but - as stated by someone else, my annoyance was only with your "arrogance" & untactful joy at the markets falling apart!

That's it, I'm joining the muppets. At least a nice term deposit is guaranteed gains, & not losses! 

I just hope tomorrow gives me a nice exit opportunity 
Whether it's up, or down - I'm out.


----------



## M34N (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I predicted a fall today, but even I never expected these falls... wonder when the blood shed will stop!

Seeing blue-chip stocks like BHP -4.4%, CBA -4.6%, NAB -2.9%, MQG -3.7%, RIO -7.9% just makes me wonder if this selling is logic-based or just band-wagon jumping because everyone else is doing it? The old adage "buy when there's blood in the streets" seems to really apply here. Aussie banks have clearly stated they have LITTLE or NO exposure to US sub-prime loans, yet get beaten down to oblivion based on what? And resources were up in London and NY trading overnight, and our top resource stocks decline over 4%, WORSE than the banks?

Anyone bold enough to say this is becoming ridiculously overdone and it's time to put your money in? How much further/longer can this madness go on for? 11-straight days of declines is just ludicrous!


----------



## Nyden (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> I predicted a fall today, but even I never expected these falls... wonder when the blood shed will stop!
> 
> Seeing blue-chip stocks like BHP -4.4%, CBA -4.6%, NAB -2.9%, MQG -3.7%, RIO -7.9% just makes me wonder if this selling is logic-based or just band-wagon jumping because everyone else is doing it? The old adage "buy when there's blood in the streets" seems to really apply here. Aussie banks have clearly stated they have LITTLE or NO exposure to US sub-prime loans, yet get beaten down to oblivion based on what? And resources were up in London and NY trading overnight, and our top resource stocks decline over 4%, WORSE than the banks?
> 
> Anyone bold enough to say this is becoming ridiculously overdone and it's time to put your money in? How much further/longer can this madness go on for? 11-straight days of declines is just ludicrous!




Heh, with a couple more US banks probably reporting major losses in the coming days, I can see this going on for the rest of the week 

Why bother chasing a dividend if the capital in the stock is going to be slapped around


----------



## M34N (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Heh, with a couple more US banks probably reporting major losses in the coming days, I can see this going on for the rest of the week
> 
> Why bother chasing a dividend if the capital in the stock is going to be slapped around



What's worse, I wonder if even the Fed's will lower by more than 0.5% in the US? Imagine that's all they drop by, probably see another massive sell-off. IMO the only thing to stimulate the market is going to be a bigger cut than that, and I don't see that happening.

Then there's the threat here with our reserve looking at raising rates! Madness, banks lifting rates _on their own accord without reserve bank help_ then the reserve raising rates again on top of that.

Is the world going mad? lol


----------



## Nyden (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> What's worse, I wonder if even the Fed's will lower by more than 0.5% in the US? Imagine that's all they drop by, probably see another massive sell-off. IMO the only thing to stimulate the market is going to be a bigger cut than that, and I don't see that happening.
> 
> Then there's the threat here with our reserve looking at raising rates! Madness, banks lifting rates _on their own accord without reserve bank help_ then the reserve raising rates again on top of that.
> 
> Is the world going mad? lol





Apparently it is!

I'm going to go mad with it 

I'm staying clear of the markets until irrational *exuberance* returns, as opposed to irrational fear.

I was hoping for a sucker rally this week to exit on!! It isn't going to happen  Should have sold out last week. 

The scary thing is; there is *no* safe sector. Even gold stocks have fallen 2-3%!


----------



## mfp (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Well, you were right MFP, but - as stated by someone else, my annoyance was only with your "arrogance" & untactful joy at the markets falling apart!
> 
> That's it, I'm joining the muppets. At least a nice term deposit is guaranteed gains, & not losses!
> 
> ...




I apologised for my insensitivity several posts back.


----------



## Nyden (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> I apologised for my insensitivity several posts back.




Heh, mate there really isn't a need for that though! It's we stubborn suckers who keep holding on, of course I'm glad for you!  I only wish I had those kinds of fortunes. 

On the bright side, at least capital losses don't expire!!


----------



## stockwhizben (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

im with you Nyden, out tomorrow as well
im quite late to rush to the exit but first time this type of decline has happened to me - i thought little ol' me hoping and hoping would stop the declines 
My recent new found thinking is that there are more falls to come on the all ords and based on my assumption that:
1. the US will drop further after poor or below expectation 4th qu results from banks and other companies.
2. the fed will cut by 0.5, the market will want 0.75, and down she goes again 


as an aside, in general would house prices come off by a poorly performing sharemarket?


----------



## Synergy (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Anyone bold enough to say this is becoming ridiculously overdone and it's time to put your money in?




Overdone? It's burnt to a crisp!!!

Looking at a couple of graphs it looks like we're down almost 18% from our high. DOW looks to be only down around 15%. It seems totally lacking in logic that we would be falling at a faster rate than the problem itself!! I get the feeling today that we have just gone too far now. Not to say it won't continue, but my feeling is that any big players sitting on the sidelines must be getting very itchy indeed.


----------



## Temjin (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Apparently it is!
> 
> I'm going to go mad with it
> 
> ...




Yeah, even the gold stocks are beaten down badly. Though most of money are into pure gold and silver bullion ETF. So they haven't moved much at all despite the 11 straight days decline.

So anyone have the statistics for when was the last 12 consecutive decline days?

"Statistically" speaking and even if we ARE in a Bear market, a technical rally will occur to relieve the oversold condition.

And I bet that the bulls will take this as a signal that they will continue to buy on the way down.


----------



## Bush Trader (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Apparently it is!
> .
> 
> The scary thing is; there is *no* safe sector. Even gold stocks have fallen 2-3%!



Apologies that this is in the XAO thread, however I think the comments a warranted.


The plunge across all sectors is predominately due forced selling on margin, CFD etc, which creates further fear/panic: often the profitable transations are sold to plug the other holes.  This behaviour has not finished yet.  If the FED cuts rates over market expectations, yes equities will rally, however gold stocks should out perform any market rally due to the impact on the US$ and it's inverse effect on the gold price.  My suggestion is setting up a Gold stock watch list with the Sep 30 prices set in the cost basis coulun, it may assist in attempting to recognise value and help you concentrate your individual research. Food for thought perhaps in what are testing times on all investors.


Cheers



BT


----------



## numbercruncher (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stockwhizben said:


> im with you Nyden, out tomorrow as well
> im quite late to rush to the exit but first time this type of decline has happened to me - i thought little ol' me hoping and hoping would stop the declines
> My recent new found thinking is that there are more falls to come on the all ords and based on my assumption that:
> 1. the US will drop further after poor or below expectation 4th qu results from banks and other companies.
> ...




Yes it would be in my humble opinion a natural progression for this to effect the realestate market, Low interest rates then stella market returns helped people push up RE prices beyond fair and logical prices - both these ingredients are now under a full frontal assault.


----------



## Kauri (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The IG futures currently for the
  ASX200,,
  Dow..
  Nikkei..
  FTSE100..
  German30..

 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Nyden (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bush Trader said:


> Apologies that this is in the XAO thread, however I think the comments a warranted.
> 
> 
> The plunge across all sectors is predominately due forced selling on margin, CFD etc, which creates further fear/panic: often the profitable transations are sold to plug the other holes.  This behaviour has not finished yet.  If the FED cuts rates over market expectations, yes equities will rally, however gold stocks should out perform any market rally due to the impact on the US$ and it's inverse effect on the gold price.  My suggestion is setting up a Gold stock watch list with the Sep 30 prices set in the cost basis coulun, it may assist in attempting to recognise value and help you concentrate your individual research. Food for thought perhaps in what are testing times on all investors.
> ...






Yeah. I believe aside from a few short rallies, we're going to keep going down 

Any room in the bear den lads? 
World's ending, fundamentals, credit, money is worthless, gold is king, banks going to go bankrupt... is that about the gist of it?


----------



## Bush Trader (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Yeah. I believe aside from a few short rallies, we're going to keep going down
> 
> Any room in the bear den lads?
> World's ending, fundamentals, credit, money is worthless, gold is king, banks going to go bankrupt... is that about the gist of it?




If you believe that then sell and go short.  There are many clichÃ©s such as "A bull market carries very few passengers" or "if you are going to buy are Bull then by a young one as the older ones often result in less calves" etc.  I don't know if you were trading back in '02-03 however these were also frustrating times, however stick to your investment fundamentals as you have outlined below.


Cheers


BT


----------



## sassa (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

SPI 200 futures down 81 for opening tomorrow as at 7.50pm.


----------



## wayneL (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone watching SYCOM?

Just ticked over at 5480. 

This is surprising even me.


----------



## M34N (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> SPI 200 futures down 81 for opening tomorrow as at 7.50pm.




Yes was going to say, it's now -105 at 7:55PM

Starting to get worried now.

Dow futures down 239... things are looking very grim indeed.


----------



## doctorj (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Anyone watching SYCOM?
> 
> Just ticked over at 5480.
> 
> This is surprising even me.



Capitulation? Or should I swing by Perth Mint and pick up some of their finest on the way home from work?


----------



## wayneL (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



doctorj said:


> Capitulation? Or should I swing by Perth Mint and pick up some of their finest on the way home from work?



Dunno. Maybe another corpse floating to the surface we don't know about yet? Seems strange with a US holiday today.

Just guessing.


----------



## lesm (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like Europe is taking the lead from Asia at the moment.

FTSE and DAX down -116 and -243 respectively.

DOW -266


----------



## marklar (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



doctorj said:


> Capitulation? Or should I swing by Perth Mint and pick up some of their finest on the way home from work?




Grab some for me doc, you know I'm good for it.  

Trust me :hide:

m.


----------



## chops_a_must (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Most people think the same as you Chops.Usually the crowd are wrong so could be time for a quick hard bounce.
> 
> Yes some people will get burnt and yes, maybe even ruined but to be honest it is all about protecting capital and with the strong performance over the past few years people should be able to get out without losing too much.
> 
> We can still trade but must limit losses with stops or be prepared to "invest" with a longer time frame in mind.There is no doubt that we will be higher than we are now in a few years at most.




I really don't think insults like that are necessary. I'd be mortified, fearing for my life to be honest, if everyone thought like me. Wouldn't be enough chemists in Australia for everyone. 

All that has been necessary of late, is to be just in front of the herd. In fact, I remember messaging ithaeekret about feeling the US markets were delaying the inevitable. The next night, started this run. I called this breakdown partly anyway, alongside Willow's charts.

Contrarians have been smashed. They have been buying US financials for months. There is way too much power in the herd at the moment to fight it.

The futures are telling a tale. If there is a capitulation on open, and if it looks like coming back, I will close my shorts, hang on to my longs. Opposite for the opposite etc. So was I just a part of the herd... or were they following my tracks? You tell me! 

I worry because we have a situation where short term traders, swing traders and dip buyers (not to mention all the buy and holders piping up on this page) may all be stuck in long positions, and looking to close them all at once. We may witness a long squeeze on a magnitude we have not seen before here in a long time.

And you full well know there is no way of controlling risk, or protecting capital in these potential black swan events. So that's why I worry. I imagine things gapping stops en masse is not pleasant to witness. But we know most people here don't use stops, full stop. Which is even more frightening.

I think it's rich someone espousing risk management, who holds INL. 

The next level is the August intraday low. Futures are holding that at the moment by the looks. I'm not sure how valid that support is though. Would like to see another gap down and rally tomorrow. Friday's obviously wasn't it... Really just need SOME evidence of a bottom. I have a long term negative bias. But I see this level of support smashing as not helpful or healthy IMO.


----------



## Kauri (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I hear a few damp washers hitting the floor, maybe enough to warrant a bounce at some stage soon, but untill I can hear the unmistakeable sound of soggy towels being thrown into the ring I'll keep looking for the short side...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto< (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> ..  artyman:  and on the 12th day of Christmas
> my banker said to me...  :band
> 
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




HA hA HA 

KAURI U CRACK ME UP!


----------



## Nyden (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> I hear a few damp washers hitting the floor, maybe enough to warrant a bounce at some stage soon, but untill I can hear the unmistakeable sound of soggy towels being thrown into the ring I'll keep looking for the short side...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri





Kauri, your metaphors & rumors always keep me entertained 

I unfortunately believe any rally will be very short-lived, I've sat on 3 days of losses waiting for this rally, that will struggle to recover one or two of the days :

Any rally we have will be stopped dead by another US bank reporting another major loss, or something of the likes.

By the way, when does your budgie go upside down? 


Edit;
The SPI 200 seems to be recovering a little? Was at 120 I think, now at 88...let's hope it continues that trend to a slightly less shade of red!!


----------



## Porper (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> I really don't think insults like that are necessary.
> 
> I think it's rich someone espousing risk management, who holds INL.




I can't see that I insulted anybody, obviously certain members are emotional to say the least.

As for INL, yes I am holding a loss but as you or anybody else for that matter doesn't know how many how can you possibly comment on my risk management skills.

As for your comment that you can't mitigate risk in this market.............absolute rubbish.CFD's give guaranteed stop losses for one and how about trading in very small amounts until the volatility diminishes.

All the people patting themselves on the back for being out of the market because they saw it coming should have been shorting..........with GSL.


----------



## 3MT (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Now that we know what fear really is, any rally would make us quick to sell way below previous resistance levels. Many will see the coming relief rally as an exit door too.

I fear the bulls reported missing the last 11 days have been slaughtered.


----------



## Bushman (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/rconrad/2008/0119.html

Quite a good article given the circumstances. Keep the emotion out of it. That extends equally to bull and bear markets.

The question we all ponder now is what is the rational course of action to take? I think the author's point on not sweating on 'timing the market' is a good one. So too is the fact that the indicators are pointing in different directions - equity values down, commodity prices up, inflation up, umemployment down, house clearances still up etc etc. No wonder nobody knew which direction to go!! The only change now is that the market has become extremely risk averse and is shooting first, asking questions later. This now extends to pricing in a US recession even though nobody knows for certain the extent of this. 0% growth is a recession - good companies will still be highly profitable given we have had record profits reported in the last 12 months.   

I take further solace in the author's point that a rapidly declining ASX 200 will provide future 'slack' for capital appreciation.  It was a great bull run and there should still be a commodities supercycle over the longer term (IMO off course). Time to make rational decisions boys & girls. As my father always said, 'don't cry over spilt milk'.


----------



## Temjin (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Contrarians have been smashed. They have been buying US financials for months. There is way too much power in the herd at the moment to fight it.




Just wondering, what are your basis that the "contrarians" have been buying US financials for months?

The well known contrarians that I know have been SELLING US financials even BEFORE the subprime crisis.

ok...I think I got it. You meant after the correction, the sentiment was bearish and being bullish was regarded as a contrarian. That does make sense.  hehe

But the original contrarians were right all along anyway.


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We have some real scary numbers on SYCOM

SPI down 160 points from the close.


----------



## vishalt (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wow, SPI down 200+, this is a crash D;

Dow futures have been pummeled 400 points


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> Wow, SPI down 200+, this is a crash D;
> 
> Dow futures have been pummeled 400 points




Yep, UK down 5.3%.

She will be halted soon!


----------



## wayneL (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Yep, UK down 5.3%.
> 
> She will be halted soon!




Man this is Fugly!

YM was -500 a couple of minutes ago


----------



## reece55 (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Man this is Fugly!
> 
> YM was -500 a couple of minutes ago




What's the go guys, what is the reason for this rapid decline tonight.....

Or is it just reality hitting home that the US is going into recession and BRIC can't solve the worlds financial problems.....

Cheers


----------



## wayneL (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



reece55 said:


> What's the go guys, what is the reason for this rapid decline tonight.....
> 
> Or is it just reality hitting home that the US is going into recession and BRIC can't solve the worlds financial problems.....
> 
> Cheers




There's gotta be something going on behind the scenes... but what?


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The PPT is wiping out everyone so the can start fresh tomorrow.


----------



## evwatkins (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

DOW futures -436 points wakakaka


----------



## habs (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

absolutely amazing to watch this all unfold.... some company's in big trouble it seems (centro,mfs, who knows who else), an amazing time to learn and implement lessons for the future, ive learned more in the last week than in the last year.
incredible


----------



## numbercruncher (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The useless good for nothing backed by thin Air USD gaining in value is the bit that winds me up ! 


Surely must be some news around, google is yield zero, zip, nada


----------



## Kauri (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Fear... and panic... healthy human emotions... to be followed by opportunistic greed...
  Quite a few posts around the traps today along the lines of " I'm selling, no bottoms in sight, crash, disaster, et al"... I thunk... 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## vishalt (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lawl I went short on 4 FTSE contracts just before close on Friday, SO LUCKY.


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Come on Guys. Cheer up. We now have the end of the world priced in. If it doesnt eventuate well we ...............may get an up day.


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Fear... and panic... healthy human emotions... to be followed by opportunistic greed...
> Quite a few posts around the traps today along the lines of " I'm selling, no bottoms in sight, crash, disaster, et al"... I thunk...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




The best one is this thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=248259

People are getting dark on the short sells.

That's a beauty.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

French banks started this freefall. Is this the bottom?


----------



## wayneL (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I believe this takes us to the > 20% (on SPI anyway) correction necessary to call a bear market.


----------



## Gundini (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Futures/Crystal Ball ?


SPI 200 5,369.00 -227.00 5,576.00 5,592.00 5,355.00 07:02 


DJIA INDEX 11,633.00 -473.00 12,130.00 12,140.00 11,605.00 07:01


----------



## vishalt (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

4800 seems very real from here!


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I believe this takes us to the > 20% (on SPI anyway) correction necessary to call a bear market.




Not if I can help it I'm buying the odd SPI and Z here.


----------



## Awesomandy (21 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm actually thinking it might bounce a little... and finish at a slightly higher point. It's oversold on the currently available news, I think. Besides, such a big drop might convince some of the bargain hunters that this is the bottom, and they will probably start looking for some value towards the later half of the day.


----------



## numbercruncher (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Reports emerged last week that Australian investment funds hold almost *$30 billion *in unsecured “kangaroo bonds” linked to US and British financial institutions, many of which have been hard hit by the worsening credit crunch




http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/jan2008/econ-j21.shtml


----------



## Kauri (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Kauri, your metaphors & rumors always keep me entertained
> 
> IBy the way, when does your budgie go upside down?




Often.. but when he takes a bath it worries me....
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## korrupt_1 (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Did we just witness a climax sell-off? Could this be the bottom (atleast in the short term?)

Any predictions on what the XAO/XJO will do on open? Panic sell-off followed by a big bounce?


----------



## chops_a_must (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> I can't see that I insulted anybody, obviously certain members are emotional to say the least.
> 
> As for INL, yes I am holding a loss but as you or anybody else for that matter doesn't know how many how can you possibly comment on my risk management skills.
> 
> ...




I find this insulting: "Most people think the same as you Chops." Especially, like I say, when I've traded like I have, and given the analysis like I have.

GSL's don't give you a guaranteed price. If they are DMA, they have to take the price of the market. And if they are a MM, well, you should know the story. And there are people who don't like using CFD's, because of the debt component anyway.

And you can't really control risk on this environment. The ONLY thing you can do, is have rules relating to the size of your trades compared with your account size. Brett Penfold from memory points this out. My point is, that you can't completely, or accurately control your risk in this market because of massive gapping problems.


----------



## EZZA (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Did we just witness a climax sell-off? Could this be the bottom (atleast in the short term?)
> 
> Any predictions on what the XAO/XJO will do on open? Panic sell-off followed by a big bounce?





I reckon it could be a bit of a bloodbath today, hoping not too much of one. i'm expecting a big dip at the start of the day hopefully with some value buying towards the end of the day.


ASX expected to open lower	22/01/2008 07:09AM AEST 	
The Australian share market is expected to open sharply lower on a negative lead from Asian and European markets and large falls in commodity prices. At 0700 AEDT on the Sydney Futures Exchange, the March share price index futures contract was down 158 points at 5,438. Today, the NAB business survey for December is released and retailer Harvey Norman Ltd releases second quarter sales data. The Australian stock market closed sharply lower yesterday, with $40 billion wiped off its value following losses in United States markets caused by lingering recession fears. It was the 11th weak session in a row and the longest losing streak in the market since January 1982. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index fell 166.9 points, or 2.9 per cent, to 5,580.4, and the broader All Ordinaries shed 168.5 points, or 2.91 per cent, to 5630.9.


----------



## tech/a (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hold on to your seats.

If youve never been through a crash your about to!

This* IS *it!


----------



## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Hold on to your seats.
> 
> If youve never been through a crash your about to!
> 
> This* IS *it!




To be fair, we closed 168 down yesterday didn't we? Futures point to another drop of the same price, just saying. It isn't like we're going to plummet 500 pts today!

I think we're already half way into the crash!


----------



## arminius (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

that sounds fair enough cordelia.
but
is this not where a redistribution of wealth occurs? there are bucketloads of cash sitting in the banks of arabia, asia and russia. it is not in their interests to see the global financial system tank, and they can buy chunks of 'western' companies on the cheap. 
to me, and im no expert, money doesnt disappear...it just goes somewhere else. in this instance to those people with new found productive capacity. 

empires come and go. dubya bush et al have done more damage to the US than most beforehand, but other powers fill any void. im not saying the US is doomed, but it has slipped. 

china, india, russia, S arabia etc cannot be ignored. and we are positioned well too. there are a lot of wealthy people in OZ, and a v large middle class. if the markets really tank, a chance exists for aussies to buy up big for a boom that will continue for decades. 

just my 2 bobs worth.


----------



## dutchie (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Come on lets talk this market up.

Geez theres some bargains out there!!

LOL


----------



## treefrog (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Hold on to your seats.
> 
> If youve never been through a crash your about to!
> 
> This* IS *it!




a lot like the scene where the The Illinois Nazis are car chasing the Blues Brothers heading through a construction site. They break through several barricades (support and resistance levels), jam on the brakes, and stop just before they go off of a bridge. They slam the car into reverse and flip through the air to escape (go short after executing their trading stop) - But the Illinois Nazis didn't execute theirs at all and go over the bridge and fall and fall and fall - even when the sreet looms below (we assume that will stop the fall) but they go through the street on impact and keep going to an unknown bottom somewhere - maybe. - they held their long positions


----------



## Kauri (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

seat of pants navigating now... but the theory (for wht it is worth) says todays drop will put us in a typical W3 area... will the PPT/PKO then pull us up into a W4... or is Newtons law all the way... interesting to say the least...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## dhukka (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> And on the 11th day the market said, "I shall smite thee that have gone long."
> 
> Well that's one for the record books, taking out the 10 consecutive day decline in 1990. This is the first time in *24* years (that's all the data I have) that the XAO declined* 11* days in a row. Any takers for tomorrow? Poll on my blog for any that are interested.




Only 9 respondents to yesterday's poll. All 9 voted for 12 days consecutive declines, no surprises there.


----------



## wayneL (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

SPI opens -215


----------



## numbercruncher (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Hold on to your seats.
> 
> If youve never been through a crash your about to!
> 
> This* IS *it!





Id consider that a ramp to benefit your short.


----------



## L plates (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't !!

This is a crash that started yesterday.
Have a look at the world indices, most have begun a massive sell off that no doubt will continue today.
Hope you have bars on your windows if you're up high !!


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like a bounce off 5400 ish support at the moment. Follow though might depend on Asia.


----------



## rub92me (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

First small bounce happening; will it be bouncing all the way down again though?


----------



## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rub92me said:


> First small bounce happening; will it be bouncing all the way down again though?




What about the Comsec factor? Half the sellers might not have even been able to post their orders through yet!


----------



## tech/a (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Its NOT today you need worry about.

Its tommorow AFTER US trading.

Asian Indexes will only reflect in general terms their outlook on the US.
Of course there are *2 days *of leading indicators here.

Add 50% for underestimate and well----you get the picture.
Todays the Entree,tommorow the Main course,and there will be desert.(Rally followed by Coffee).


----------



## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Its NOT today you need worry about.
> 
> Its tommorow AFTER US trading.
> 
> ...




Agreed Tech.

I posted on the other thread that I believed tomorrow to be the day of reckoning :

We're currently 100pts ahead of the FTSE as well, I think today we've got much further to drop.


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Looks like a bounce off 5400 ish support at the moment. Follow though might depend on Asia.



Yikes, maybe 5300 support? Hooly dooly. 

Capitulation? Will depend how we end the day won't it. Way up off lows and maybe. At the bottom, and golly.....


----------



## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yikes, maybe 5300 support? Hooly dooly.
> 
> Capitulation? Will depend how we end the day won't it. Way up off lows and maybe. At the bottom, and golly.....




Maybe the 4400? :


----------



## chops_a_must (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yikes, maybe 5300 support? Hooly dooly.
> 
> Capitulation? Will depend how we end the day won't it. Way up off lows and maybe. At the bottom, and golly.....




Pull up a chart of BHP. That's telling the story atm. Breaks here and bye bye :flush:


----------



## Kauri (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Was looking for a fourth wave around here, but it seems the fifth column has it for the time being.
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yikes, maybe 5300 support? Hooly dooly.



Bounce off 5300? 

If keep calling these bounces I'l get one right. 

Sort of the opposite to the bears calling for a correction.......

Where's the bar?.............


----------



## numbercruncher (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Bounce off 5300?
> 
> If keep calling these bounces I'l get one right.
> 
> ...





LOL ... new saying .....



The Bulls have called 15 of the last 5 bounces


----------



## treefrog (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> LOL ... new saying .....
> 
> 
> 
> The Bulls have called 15 of the last 5 bounces




luv it numbers......................................................................................


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> LOL ... new saying .....
> 
> The Bulls have called 15 of the last 5 bounces



LOL. 

I've called 3 of the last none so far. 5650 and 5400. 

Now, definately, capitulation over at 5300..... 

I'll be able to have this call in the forward of my next book, 'Calling the Bottom Successfully, with kennas'


----------



## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Bounce off 5300?
> 
> If keep calling these bounces I'l get one right.
> 
> ...




I wouldn't call it a *bounce*, but so far it's recovering a little 

Except, of course; Dow futures aren't exactly filling me with confidence 

Watch the mass sellers come in before the close.


----------



## stockwhizben (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

excellent. its recovering. time to buy back in. must be the bottom now


----------



## marklar (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Its NOT today you need worry about.
> 
> Its tommorow AFTER US trading.



Indeed, they've got a couple of days of losses in other markets to catch up on first :22_yikes:
Think I'll take the next few days to draw myself some pictures to try and comprehend the global sentiment and market reactions to each other  :dunno: goodness knows I won't be buying anything.

m.


----------



## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stockwhizben said:


> excellent. its recovering. time to buy back in. must be the bottom now




Heh, it's probably because of the time of the day. All the sellers out to lunch :


----------



## Hephaestus (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My bets on a coming low of 4800, and a flatline for an extended period.  The XAO has been totally obsessed with anniversaries since the 20 year 1987 celebration.  

What scares me:

Look at the LONG term XAO. Extend the troughs from 82, 91, 93, 95, 99 and 03 to find my REAL concern = 3200...


----------



## MattB (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Hephaestus said:


> Look at the LONG term XAO. Extend the troughs from 82, 91, 93, 95, 99 and 03 to find my REAL concern = 3200...




This is what I said a few pages back 

seems a lot (most?) of the XAO charts are being looked at from extremely short term (3yr?) timeframes...    well, what about the less aggressive uptrend that was happening for 20yrs before 2003?   ....a return to that would mean 4500?


----------



## GreatPig (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is what I have for the longer term trend, which is running at around 7% pa.

The blue line is currently about 4350, and the orange line about 3680.

GP


----------



## Gundini (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"3680" OMG 

Better buy a bigger ute, or maybe a Tipper to cart all the shopping home at those prices... lol

Not that I think for a minute it isn't possible...


----------



## treefrog (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> This is what I have for the longer term trend, which is running at around 7% pa.
> 
> The blue line is currently about 4350, and the orange line about 3680.
> 
> GP




good stuff oh great pig!

used the compatible L's for your axes too I see - Long term Vs Log scale - nice compact story - who needs words


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here we go. Margin liquidation sale. Just getting dumped!!


----------



## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Watch the mass sellers come in before the close.




What's my prize? :

I really didn't expect it to plummet this much though! We're looking to hit 400 here, just wow.

Holders must really be feeling the pain


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> LOL.
> 
> I've called 3 of the last none so far. 5650 and 5400.
> 
> ...



Can I go 4 for 0?


----------



## Gundini (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And Dow Futures heading south again, maybe in the 500+ range soon.

DJIA INDEX 11,626.00 -480.00 

Wayne seems to be able to get more accurate futures I notice after a few well timed postings last night.

Are they available to us meer mortals Wayne... lol


----------



## derty (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Watch the mass sellers come in before the close.



Nice call! I'll give you a pat on the back (to collect just go and sit under the back end of a cow) 

What did you base this on? hunch, experience or a some hard figures like the US futures?


----------



## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



derty said:


> Nice call! I'll give you a pat on the back (to collect just go and sit under the back end of a cow)
> 
> What did you base this on? hunch, experience or a some hard figures like the US futures?




Not a hunch  Was a bit of sarcasm really, as it's happened every day of the past 11!

My theory is; same reason the mornings differ from the middle of the day. People are all rushing for the door now before the close. Just as people were rushing for the door before the open. Based on an expected loss tomorrow, ugh, messy stuff.


----------



## chops_a_must (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Not a hunch  Was a bit of sarcasm really, as it's happened every day of the past 11!
> 
> My theory is; same reason the mornings differ from the middle of the day. People are all rushing for the door now before the close. Just as people were rushing for the door before the open. Based on an expected loss tomorrow, ugh, messy stuff.




Nah, it's to do with Margin Calls, which TH has pointed out, and trades off...


----------



## Kauri (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Not a hunch  Was a bit of sarcasm really, as it's happened every day of the past 11!
> 
> My theory is; same reason the mornings differ from the middle of the day. People are all rushing for the door now before the close. Just as people were rushing for the door before the open. Based on an expected loss tomorrow, ugh, messy stuff.




Predicting the market direction is simple.. to about 75% accuracy.., same as predicting the weather.. fine today then fine tomorrow.... down today then down tomorrow.... I guess that's what trends are all about.   .........really...   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Nah, it's to do with Margin Calls, which TH has pointed out, and trades off...




Well obviously, but that was already pointed out :

But, I honestly believe; rushing to the exit is playing a role there.

You can see on these very forums the progression of attitudes throughout the day, more people getting antsy & jumping ship. I believe this same attitute will continue until 4:10

Infact, heck - every 15 minutes on TV I'm hearing market crash (during the ad break). People are becoming very spooked, time to bunker down!


----------



## treefrog (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> This is what I have for the longer term trend, which is running at around 7% pa.
> 
> The blue line is currently about 4350, and the orange line about 3680.
> 
> GP




if we place the fib retrace projection on the mar03 to oct 07 run we get the 50% level at  4770 and 62% at 4290 - so nicely around your zone piggy


----------



## treefrog (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ding dong!
is that avon calling??
nope, margin!


----------



## cordelia (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Well obviously, but that was already pointed out :
> 
> But, I honestly believe; rushing to the exit is playing a role there.
> 
> ...




The general public is now heavily involved thanks to the media but it boils down to keeping an eye on your investments IMO and paying attention to what is going on in the world. Which is what I should have been doing all along. Fortunately I got out early......

I have heard a lot of people say "I will ride it out" but that depends on how long you are prepared to wait and how old you are......you could be dead before you recover your money.

I'm sure there are a lot of retirees out there thinking along those lines....


----------



## >Apocalypto< (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Latest US futures, not looking so nice.*


----------



## tech/a (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

DJIA.

-700 + at sometime tonight.
Even a duck can see that.


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> DJIA.
> 
> -700 + at sometime tonight.
> Even a duck can see that.



No you can't, that's just a downramp. Can you provide any reason for this, like your crash call this morning?


----------



## numbercruncher (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> No you can't, that's just a downramp. Can you provide any reason for this, like your crash call this morning?




Yah exactly same comment I made to him this morning, my favorite was his Friday comment when he said that absolutely no chance of Thursdays low being broken Monday 

Pure lamp in the direction of his bets


----------



## chops_a_must (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> DJIA.
> 
> -700 + at sometime tonight.
> Even a duck can see that.




I reckon we'll see -1000 at some point. H&S target there, lots of support...

Geez... our market really bent over in the last ten minutes didn't it? Poor thing... it's not nice seeing something sell their body out of necessity.


----------



## numbercruncher (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Im literally blown away by the sheer amount of sellers vrs buyers, shows just how much potential downwards pressure remains


----------



## Gundini (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> DJIA.
> 
> -700 + at sometime tonight.
> Even a duck can see that.




Surely it wouldn't be hard to imagine -700 tonight, given the fall we had, and the fact they are double our index amount...

Scary thought just the same. 

If tomorrow is Red, does this equal our longest run of down days, 13? EVER?


----------



## vishalt (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Absolutely vaporized, jesus christ Hang Seng down 10%. 

I think the US market could do a lot worse than 500, the Dow is pretty liquid and could go quad figures in my opinion, so I hope everyone has some form of hedging or has taken a small loss lol. 

I'm going more short!

Wow @ the banks and financials. 

**** the US.


----------



## tech/a (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Prove---disprove---prove---disprove.

So ya onto me!


----------



## dhukka (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And on the 12th day, the market said; those who did not learn from yesterday's smiting have been smited some more. 

So the record breaking streak has extended to *12 *days. Anyone want to go for *13*? All depends on the US tonight. Many shall be staying up late I suspect. No poll on my blog today, might start one here though


----------



## Gundini (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If the truth be known, what is to stop the DOW dumping around 1100 points, or a tad over 10%. A lot of our stock closed 10% + down, majors, and the DOW futures are abysmal... Key support is bound to be smashed, around 12000, and I would consider the next major key level to be 11000. 

Anyone disagree? The timing is right, the futures are saying it, while I don't believe it, it is their Monday (1st day of the week). What's going to stop it?

PPT?


----------



## powerkoala (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

12 days straight in the row.....
will the 13 days become miracle or doomsday ??
can't comment anymore


----------



## skating101 (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

who wants to short the dow with me heck ive already bet enough money on it already


----------



## MS+Tradesim (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In 50yrs I'll be telling my grandkids "I reee-meemburr the keer-ash of 08."
"Yeh, sure gramps! *crazy old bugger's lost it*"


----------



## numbercruncher (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> In 50yrs I'll be telling my grandkids "I reee-meemburr the keer-ash of 08."
> "Yeh, sure gramps! *crazy old bugger's lost it*"




LOL


And I only recoooped me losses on yer 10th Birthday sunny


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'd be intersted to see some stats on if you bought the index at the start, or 'bottom' of a crash, on how well off you'd be.

I have some spare beer money right now....


----------



## Bushman (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> And on the 12th day, the market said; those who did not learn from yesterday's smiting have been smited some more.
> 
> So the record breaking streak has extended to *12 *days. Anyone want to go for *13*? All depends on the US tonight. Many shall be staying up late I suspect. No poll on my blog today, might start one here though




Is the excitement getting to you Dhukka? Your graph shows 22/01/09. 

I hope 22/01/2009 will be showing a nice stable 1% rise as we reach the bottom of the bear market and sail off into the sunset once again. Or, more likely, the bulls take their Red Bull and the next asset bubble emerges.


----------



## dhukka (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some more useless tidbits:

After today's close the XAO has shed *-24%* from it's closing high on November 1st. In the last bear market the XAO shed *-22%* from peak to trough which ran from March 2002 (peak) to March 2003 (trough). In two and half months the XAO has shed more than the entire decline of the last bear market.


----------



## dhukka (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bushman said:


> Is the excitement getting to you Dhukka? Your graph shows 22/01/09.
> 
> I hope 22/01/2009 will be showing a nice stable 1% rise as we reach the bottom of the bear market and sail off into the sunset once again. Or, more likely, the bulls take their Red Bull and the next asset bubble emerges.




You got me there Bushman, obviously it is getting to me. I'll make the requisite changes in time for lucky 13 tomorrow.


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Some more useless tidbits:
> 
> After today's close the XAO has shed *-24%* from it's closing high on November 1st. In the last bear market the XAO shed *-22%* from peak to trough which ran from March 2002 (peak) to March 2003 (trough). In two and half months the XAO has shed more than the entire decline of the last bear market.



Time to back up the truck then?

What is that gambling principle where you bet against the streak??? 

My 'support' lines have been decimated. 

Back to the taxi....


----------



## nikki (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

isn't a drop below 20-24% as part of a correction a once in a 20-30 year event. is there this much fear in the market about the fundamentals of our companies and economy. . . . . . . 

a broker i am read was saying that there wasn't panic selling today ........ anyone have a sense of volumes to know if this was the case or not!!!! how does one judge panic selling......


----------



## Temjin (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm kinda following some of the HK based internet forums on their stock market, and believe me, the general "mood" there is a lot more pessimistic than we have here. At least we can crack a joke or two in times like this. People are talking about SUICIDING and how much in DEBT they are in over there. Plus blaming on the Amercians. hah

Anyone got the data for the longest losing streak the index have had since its introduction? How many 13s, 14s, 15s?


----------



## dhukka (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Time to back up the truck?  Not quite but I'm having a dip.  I bought my first stock in 14 months today. Could have been a big mistake. Oh well, time will tell. I just see too many bargains everywhere.


----------



## IFocus (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Finally real volume on wide range bar a lot more people came to market today, depending on the US tonight may get a chance of narrower range tomorrow but those expanding bars don't look good


----------



## trading_rookie (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Closed at 5222...Can't recall who it was but I think it was Lateline Business' last show for the year and Ali's guest was predicting the XAO would close the year at 7000pts!


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Time to back up the truck?  Not quite but I'm having a dip.  I bought my first stock in 14 months today. Could have been a big mistake. Oh well, time will tell. I just see too many bargains everywhere.



Well done dhukka, I was a lemming selling today. However, because I'd been buying the past 14 months it may have made up for your non buying. Wonder if there's a way to quantify that? 

Whatever the case, I agree that buying today is a long term positive in good stocks that will be the first to advantage in the flight to quality. Whatever they are....WOW, QBE ....


----------



## MS+Tradesim (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I took two dips today. Remains to be seen what will happen. Still tons of cash left though. In the meantime...... :alcohol:


----------



## moXJO (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There were so many simple kinds of patterns setting up on different stocks (DT tris H&S etc) problem was at the time I thought the targets that they were pointing to were to low and dismissed them.Last few days has proved me wrong


----------



## CFD (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Finally real volume on wide range bar a lot more people came to market today, depending on the US tonight may get a chance of narrower range tomorrow but those expanding bars don't look good




Unfortunately you could not say the buying volume overcame the sellers, as was the case back in August.

What chance the Fed intervenes tonight?


----------



## dhukka (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some more pointless statistics;

Today's decline was the biggest one day fall since *October 16th 1989* when it plunged *8.12%*. The *-7.18%* fall on *October 28th 1997* was just eclipsed by today's *7.25%* plunge.


----------



## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CFD said:


> Unfortunately you could not say the buying volume overcame the sellers, as was the case back in August.
> 
> What chance the Fed intervenes tonight?




Even if they do, would absolutely scream desperation. Could actually have the *opposite* effect.

You buyers sure are game


----------



## Whiskers (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Aus market is so over-sold! 

UNLESS it is the case that the US has finally infected the rest of the world with it's incurable disease.

The RSI is below 10, Williams -100 for last two days and three of twelve, and fast stockastic 0 for two days and three of twelve.

Looking at the chart, when you compare the DOW, Nasdaq or S&P 500 to the XAO, the XAO seems to have been more volatile lately, ie over-reacting to bad news from the US more so than the US markets themselves.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hmmm....history repeating itself? I am seeing distinct similarities with the 2001 initial crash. March 01 we have a sell-off followed by rally to a new high. This moves into an expanding channel (wedge?). Eventually selling pressure results in a plunge from the middle of the channel. Compare with where we are now in these two charts. 

(EDIT: Ps. Highs on chart in 02 were followed by a second movement down to below Sep 01 low. Not looking that far ahead at moment)


----------



## M34N (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

SPI is still showing -71 at 7:00PM now, after losing over 7% today that's nearly another 1.5%, and it's still early days!

I shut down virtually all my positions today, some big losses incurred, but I fear what's coming tonight in the US is going to be even worse than what the Dow futures show; -641 for the Dow, how can there be _any_ up-side potential? Seems we are doomed to go down for a 13th straight day.

Oh well, we had a good run for the past 4 years, and we had *plenty* of warning leading up to this latest crash, live and learn.

I also had to shake my head at this comment on the Portfolio page on E*Trade:



> Please note that AFGHA, AFG, AHUG, AHUGA, AXQ, CGF, MFS and MFSG have been suspended from the ANZ E*TRADE Share Investment Loan Approved Securities List*. ANZ recommends that you closely monitor your margin loan. For further information please call the client services team on 1800 639 330 (Monday to Friday, 8am to 6pm AEST).
> 
> * Approved Security List is subject to change without notice.




It only had MFS listed there yesterday, I wonder what else will be on that list tomorrow? BNB? MQG?


----------



## josjes (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> The Aus market is so over-sold!
> 
> UNLESS it is the case that the US has finally infected the rest of the world with it's incurable disease.
> 
> ...




Panic/Crash is rare. If it happens, all technical support resistance is out of the window. RSI, Stochastic measurement has no bearing. That's my view.


----------



## dhukka (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If past bear markets are anything to go by we will experience some short sharp rallies that last several days or weeks that may add as much as *10%* or more. To be proven wrong of course.


----------



## chops_a_must (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Finally real volume on wide range bar a lot more people came to market today, depending on the US tonight may get a chance of narrower range tomorrow but those expanding bars don't look good




Hmmm...If that was a futures chart, I would be looking at going long in the very near term...looking at a swing back. Very very conflicted here. The only precedent appears to be the 87 falls, which lasted about a month. This has lasted about a month since the December breakdown. But 87 was straight down with only a brief break before breaking down again. But now looks like an ending diagonal to the downside is forming. If Europe doesn't rally to a significant gain, I will say it has further to fall, if it does, I'm going to have to seriously consider my only open short.

Some almighty gap fills in Europe going on...

Was thinking we might open the US in a circuit breaker, but that seems unlikely now.

I really don't need this the day out from a holiday! Lol!


----------



## tech/a (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well Maybe not all that bad.

Early days but normally sets the pace.
Europe is GREEN.

Sucker rally anyone?


----------



## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

SPI 200 is 6 pts up, could we finally see the end of bloodshed tomorrow? Of course we will, as I just sold. The ultimate indicator! Only kidding


----------



## theasxgorilla (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Some more pointless statistics;
> 
> Today's decline was the biggest one day fall since *October 16th 1989* when it plunged *8.12%*. The *-7.18%* fall on *October 28th 1997* was just eclipsed by today's *7.25%* plunge.




Today is my birthday.  So I'll have little trouble remembering the day it all happened back in 2008.  Woke up not too long ago with some elephant running around in my head crashing into things after being out 'dancing' and such last night to see this.  Totally amazing.  So, I suppose we were just following the US again right Dhukka?   Eventually people will get it.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Well Maybe not all that bad.
> 
> Early days but normally sets the pace.
> Europe is GREEN.
> ...




hmmm as well the eur/usd and usd/chf show signs aswell i have noticed, if un influenced by news. usdchf weakening and eurusd strengthening. London shows a small demand for risk!


----------



## zhang66777 (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

would you mind to tell me where you can get the historical chart, cos i can only get the historical price from yahoo? thanks a lot



MS+Tradesim said:


> Hmmm....history repeating itself? I am seeing distinct similarities with the 2001 initial crash. March 01 we have a sell-off followed by rally to a new high. This moves into an expanding channel (wedge?). Eventually selling pressure results in a plunge from the middle of the channel. Compare with where we are now in these two charts.
> 
> (EDIT: Ps. Highs on chart in 02 were followed by a second movement down to below Sep 01 low. Not looking that far ahead at moment)


----------



## zhang66777 (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i am quite new, would you mind to tell me some basic stuff, many thanks.

1. where can i find out the future index, cos somebody said it drop more than 600 now, but i don't know where to find it, and what is the name of that index

2.how to short dow or xao

sorry for the basic question, and thanks again


----------



## MS+Tradesim (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



zhang66777 said:


> would you mind to tell me where you can get the historical chart, cos i can only get the historical price from yahoo? thanks a lot




I buy EOD data from Paritech and real-time data from eSignal - I use Metastock to chart with. That's what you're seeing in my post. I'm sure there would be some basic free stuff available online but I just don't know where. Maybe someone else knows?


----------



## zhang66777 (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

thanks



MS+Tradesim said:


> I buy EOD data from Paritech and real-time data from eSignal - I use Metastock to chart with. That's what you're seeing in my post. I'm sure there would be some basic free stuff available online but I just don't know where. Maybe someone else knows?


----------



## tech/a (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

FTSE holding up.Quite a reversal from this morning.
Expecting US fed rate cut .5%
Will see how it fared after USA trading.
Off to TV and Bed


----------



## dhukka (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Today is my birthday.  So I'll have little trouble remembering the day it all happened back in 2008.  Woke up not too long ago with some elephant running around in my head crashing into things after being out 'dancing' and such last night to see this.  Totally amazing.  So, I suppose we were just following the US again right Dhukka?   Eventually people will get it.




Happy Birthday ASXG, funny that even though the US wasn't open last night people are still blaming them because of the credit crunch etc. What's the bet if the US rallies on a rate cut people will be saying it's unfair because we sold down further than the US?


----------



## Lucky_Country (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

When will we see a rate cut ?
Do we have too wait till the 29th Jan or as early as tonight from the fed ?


----------



## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hmmm, Channel 10 has turned a little bearish.

I keep hearing 100 billion wiped off Aus market, _and it's not over yet_

Could that affect the average mom & dad sellers tomorrow? I believe so.


----------



## cordelia (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gundini said:


> If the truth be known, what is to stop the DOW dumping around 1100 points, or a tad over 10%. A lot of our stock closed 10% + down, majors, and the DOW futures are abysmal... Key support is bound to be smashed, around 12000, and I would consider the next major key level to be 11000.
> 
> Anyone disagree? The timing is right, the futures are saying it, while I don't believe it, it is their Monday (1st day of the week). What's going to stop it?
> 
> PPT?




It may seem hard to grasp because most of the people in this forum have been discussing this possibility for some time but the geberal public have only just begun to realise that the market is going down. Everyone is adding fuel to the fire, most of all the media. I can't see it going anywhere but south for a while. It's a classic case of panic selling and common sense has been thrown to the wind.

Try shouting "fire" in a crowded room and see what happens. The panic has set in and the stampede is gathering momentum.

Anyway I had some good advice from my mum today after she watched the news. "be careful in the share market and it pays to always listen to the abc to know what's going on". 
I didn't have the heart to tell her that by the time you hear it on the abc it's too late


----------



## nikki (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i see green everywhere. . . . . . .wow . . . wow . . .wow. . . i have forgotten what green looks like?????    

well, except the DAX??


----------



## willow (22 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is interesting. If we add an extension to the head and shoulders target we come within 2 points of price stopping at the target. 
I saw this technique in one of Martin pring's books and he showed some fine examples. Could be something to it. 
Now if this latest target is breached significantly the next move would expectedly take us to 4602 on the XJO, according to this type of measuring. Cheers.


----------



## rub92me (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So maybe we've overdone the crash a bit in Australia. XAO down almost 10% in 2 days and the Dow down about 1.2 %. Will be some interesting gap-ups today I think


----------



## >Apocalypto< (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I see a rally today fellas. US did what i thought would happen a futures recovery off the lows!


----------



## tech/a (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There are 2 ways to bleed to death.
Catastrophic trauma or Slow prolonged Haemoraging.

Throwing a band aid on a catastrophic trauma victim isn't going to do much.

Even a .75% rate cut couldn't pull up the prolonged move down.

This week is report week and figures are expected to reflect the true state of the US economy---and that's NOT a bright optimistic out look.

STILL closing off 128 points,US traders must have thought it Xmas being able to get out of longs without too much damage.

If you think its all over---your gambling.


----------



## chops_a_must (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> There are 2 ways to bleed to death.
> Catastrophic trauma or Slow prolonged Haemoraging.
> 
> Throwing a band aid on a catastrophic trauma victim isn't going to do much.
> ...




As I said on another thread, US futures rolled over after close. Nasdaq was killed thanks to AAPL. Friday swing low was not taken out.

Anyone looking at going long here for anymore than a very short term trade must have rocks in their heads. Tech and China are the last cards in the deck, and the US hasn't realised yet they may well be stuffed. I would be looking for a severely down day tomorrow in the US. What are people going to buy now? Even the market leaders appear stuffed, and all this mess is spreading to the 'sure things'.

In 87 there are three trading days that stand out. People might be well advised to look at them, and perhaps see where we might be in relation to that...


----------



## moXJO (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> As I said on another thread, US futures rolled over after close. Nasdaq was killed thanks to AAPL. Friday swing low was not taken out.
> 
> Anyone looking at going long here for anymore than a very short term trade must have rocks in their heads. Tech and China are the last cards in the deck, and the US hasn't realised yet they may well be stuffed. I would be looking for a severely down day tomorrow in the US. What are people going to buy now? Even the market leaders appear stuffed, and all this mess is spreading to the 'sure things'.
> 
> In 87 there are three trading days that stand out. People might be well advised to look at them, and perhaps see where we might be in relation to that...




Wise words from chops imo


----------



## dhukka (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> As I said on another thread, US futures rolled over after close. Nasdaq was killed thanks to AAPL. Friday swing low was not taken out.
> 
> Anyone looking at going long here for anymore than a very short term trade must have rocks in their heads. Tech and China are the last cards in the deck, and the US hasn't realised yet they may well be stuffed. I would be looking for a severely down day tomorrow in the US. What are people going to buy now? Even the market leaders appear stuffed, and all this mess is spreading to the 'sure things'.
> 
> In 87 there are three trading days that stand out. People might be well advised to look at them, and perhaps see where we might be in relation to that...




Interesting that the only piece of good news that was expected on Tuesday (unless you expected a 75 bps fed rate cut) was taken negatively. AAPL down *13%* in after market trade. And you can see why, 2Q08 forecast eps growth of just* 8%* for a stock that is trading at 40x earnings. Might get a nice suckers to sell into today.


----------



## chops_a_must (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Interesting that the only piece of good news that was expected on Tuesday (unless you expected a 75 bps fed rate cut) was taken negatively. AAPL down *13%* in after market trade. And you can see why, 2Q08 forecast eps growth of just* 8%* for a stock that is trading at 40x earnings. Might get a nice suckers to sell into today.




Yep. Might be a massive couple of days to get shorts on. I might need to stop by target.

If the market fades that open today, all hell will break loose.


----------



## moXJO (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is there an RBA decision on rates at 11:30 today?


----------



## dhukka (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> Is there an RBA decision on rates at 11:30 today?




Not unless is it an emergency meeting. CPI comes out today though which would normally gives an indication of where the RBA is headed on interest rates. However given the current situation they may stand pat in Feb.


----------



## moXJO (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wow the flock is running full steam ahead this morn


----------



## Nyden (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> Wow the flock is running full steam ahead this morn




Yeah, we'll see a mass rally today - simply because I closed out of my final positions yesterday :

Oh well, I won't be re-buying any time soon, markets are headed for more turmoil if you ask me!


----------



## moXJO (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

lol I know this guy is probably joking but funny none the less.Probably what a lot of new traders are doing.



> Im gonna max my credit card to the max to buy more today






> im gonna call my grannie and get a $10000 loan to make the most of the rise today


----------



## Gundini (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

BHP up nearly 8%

All green today it seems, relief for those finally!

33.400 +2.400 +7.742 %


----------



## IFocus (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

270 point jump on open coming up pump and dump or bargain hunters ?


----------



## Gundini (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"The rally we had to have"


----------



## Nyden (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gundini said:


> BHP up nearly 8%
> 
> All green today it seems, relief for those finally!
> 
> 33.400 +2.400 +7.742 %




Current markets are a gamble, & I refuse to do that

Lost gains, perhaps, realised losses, a definite :
But, I'm convinced we're in for a case of 1 step forward, 2 steps back for a long time now.


----------



## chops_a_must (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gundini said:


> BHP up nearly 8%



Blow off bottom by the looks. Thanks part to the muppets in the US holding it up on their index. 

And I happened to be short it. Lol!


----------



## panikhide (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Current markets are a gamble, & I refuse to do that
> 
> Lost gains, perhaps, realised losses, a definite :
> But, I'm convinced we're in for a case of 1 step forward, 2 steps back for a long time now.




Crazy - yesterday was the day I cashed in BHP. 

The thought that this is a case of 1 step forward, 2 steps back is appealing. Maybe today is the day to sell and do the opposite of what the herd is doing.


----------



## nikkothescorpio (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yup - is definitely bouncing back waaaaay too quick for my taste.

I mean look at it rationally - the sum of all problems wasn't that the US Fed had their rates 0.75pts too high - so why would doing this all of a sudden make it shiny happy?

A few days of green but revisit to these lows and then a tad more within a short period.


----------



## Nyden (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



panikhide said:


> Crazy - yesterday was the day I cashed in BHP.
> 
> The thought that this is a case of 1 step forward, 2 steps back is appealing. Maybe today is the day to sell and do the opposite of what the herd is doing.




It'll all come down to what the dow does tonight, the unfortunate thing is; waiting until Wednesday was my original plan (waiting for earnings reports), but I decided to do it yesterday instead...guess emotion got the best of me.


No point in saying should've, could've... it's easy enough to say these things in hindsight, but that would have been *gambling*, & not investments.


----------



## chops_a_must (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nikkothescorpio said:


> I mean look at it rationally - the sum of all problems wasn't that the US Fed had their rates 0.75pts too high - so why would doing this all of a sudden make it shiny happy?



The sum of all problems was that rates were too low in the first place.


----------



## Nyden (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> The sum of all problems was that rates were too low in the first place.




I've got a feeling today is just panic _buying _ 

All the punters trying to get back losses, & trying to jump on the new "bull" 

When do they release the figures on if China is actually being affected? That will be one of the true catalysts for our market, at least.

FTSE didn't rally this strong, sucker rally anyone?


----------



## J.C. (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like you're on the money Nyden, 20 minutes in to the days trade and XAO already up 300 points! I refuse to be fooled though, not going to be a sheep this time!


----------



## Morgan (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> I've got a feeling today is just panic _buying _
> 
> All the punters trying to get back losses, & trying to jump on the new "bull"
> 
> ...




Despite the jump in the All ORds, from what I'm observing this morning on many stocks (ie twice as many buyers as sellers for a similar total number of units) - I get the feeling the "smart money" is still offloading.  

Pretty much all in cash now and resisting the urge to panic buy


----------



## Temjin (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hahah a quote for the day



> Never fight against the federal reserve




Did anyone realise that the biggest gain in the stock market history was the day AFTER the biggest LOST day? 

The federal reserve cut did came as a surprise, but then the pattern of a big day down and then a big day up was almost a history repeat of the 1929s! 

The smart money will definitely sell on the rally up.


----------



## Kauri (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

in... and out... on the same day... for me anyways... until the markets resolve one way or tother.. in my ears volume and ranges will speak loudest...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## dhukka (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

CPI came in at an elevated *0.9* for Dec qtr. Normally I would say an RBA rate rise would be a given. However the last few weeks have been less than normal. 

Anyone know where I can get a quote on Aussie interest rate futures? Nick Radge mentioned they had priced in a further rise a few weeks back. Interesting to see what they are saying now.


----------



## Sean K (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> CPI came in at an elevated *0.9* for Dec qtr. Normally I would say an RBA rate rise would be a given. However the last few weeks have been less than normal.



 They almost have to with a 9 don't they Dhukka. 7 no, 8 coin toss....


----------



## dhukka (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> They almost have to with a 9 don't they Dhukka. 7 no, 8 coin toss....




Yeah I thought a *.6* would be no, *.7* would be iffy, *.8* most likely *.9* foregone conclusion. The RBA sat back in December and talked about global credit problems. However an RBA speech last week suggested they don't see major fallout for the Australian economy from the US slowdown and see inflation as the biggest risk. Looks like a hike is to me, the Aussie dollar seems to be confirming that.


----------



## Nyden (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> CPI came in at an elevated *0.9* for Dec qtr. Normally I would say an RBA rate rise would be a given. However the last few weeks have been less than normal.
> 
> Anyone know where I can get a quote on Aussie interest rate futures? Nick Radge mentioned they had priced in a further rise a few weeks back. Interesting to see what they are saying now.




I should hope they raise them, I'm cashed up!

If they don't, it's utter responsibility. It's their job to curb inflation, not protect the foolish.


----------



## dhukka (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> I should hope they raise them, I'm cashed up!
> 
> If they don't, it's utter responsibility. It's their job to curb inflation, not protect the foolish.




Agreed it's not their job to bail out investors. However I think the inflation scare is overdone. Deflation will be the theme in 08. THe RBA might be giving back interest rate hikes by the end of the year or into early next.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

By the time US economic contraction actually filters through the global system and effects are felt by Australian companies I don't think inflation for us will be an issue. I wonder if RBA would be better off holding rates given the lag time for their effects to be felt. The banks have already upped rates under their own steam. I could be wrong as I'm not up on economics.


----------



## Whiskers (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> By the time US economic contraction actually filters through the global system and effects are felt by Australian companies I don't think inflation for us will be an issue. I wonder if RBA would be better off holding rates given the lag time for their effects to be felt. The banks have already upped rates under their own steam. I could be wrong as I'm not up on economics.




I agree. I think the RBA is well aware of the down line consequences of a US slowdown and will err on the side of caution this time and hold.


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Anyone know where I can get a quote on Aussie interest rate futures? Nick Radge mentioned they had priced in a further rise a few weeks back. Interesting to see what they are saying now.




http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm

But its a day behind


----------



## dhukka (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm
> 
> But its a day behind




cheers TH


----------



## dhukka (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From the link supplied by TH:




> As at 22 January, the SFE 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures February 2008
> contract was trading at 93.215, indicative of a 17% expectation that the RBA will change the Target Cash Rate by at least 25 basis points from 6.75% to 7.00% on the 6th of February 2008 (ie, compared to a 83% expectation of no rate change). The table below highlights how market expectations of a rate increase for February 2008 has evolved in recent days.
> 
> Trading Day ----No Change ----        Increase to 7.00%
> ...




You can see expectations of a rate hike clearly took a dive yesterday. Will be interesting to see where they are after today.


----------



## tech/a (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> hahah a quote for the day
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Snap.
Pretty well my own view of the situation.
minimise loss if you have it and get set short if you have CFD's.

May not come off tomorrow but likely to continue its fall sooner than later.

Expect volatility until the market has time to absorb the figures coming out and the impact on dropping of rates.

Lots of "reactive" trading going on.
DANGEROUS.


----------



## doctorj (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Snap.
> Pretty well my own view of the situation.
> minimise loss if you have it and get set short if you have CFD's.



Since when have you been a discretionary trader???


----------



## Aussiejeff (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> By the time US economic contraction actually filters through the global system and effects are felt by Australian companies I don't think inflation for us will be an issue. *I wonder if RBA would be better off holding rates given the lag time for their effects to be felt*. The banks have already upped rates under their own steam. I could be wrong as I'm not up on economics.




Good point about the lag involved. The advent of high speed broadband transactions involving Trillions of dollars around the planet on any given day means the slow, plodding deliberations of Reserve Banks worldwide are more often than not going to be somewhat out of sync with what is happening in the *NOW*. They usually base their decisions on inflation figures from the dim dark past, generally not taking into account the massive dailly shifts that can wreck whole financial markets in the interim between the figures THEN and the reality NOW.

The surprise early "pre-emptive" rates cut move by the US Fed Reserve might have set a precedent. I wouldn't be surprised to see this faster reacting, "pre-emptive" approach used more often by RB governors around the globe. I personally think it's time RB's moved into the 21st Century anyway and became more actively involved in macro and micro economic management, rather than often allowing the economy to swing too far one way or the other before acting. Maybe under Rudd, that is what the Aus RB will attempt to do?


AJ


----------



## tech/a (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



doctorj said:


> Since when have you been a discretionary trader???




August 2007.
CFD's This month.
Opened an account with Pacific Trader a couple of weeks ago.

Still a systems trader when the climate is right.
Only using 20% of available funds for discretionary--thats enough.


----------



## tech/a (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XJO 5 min chart

UGLY if long.
Xmas if short


----------



## vert (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

just dropped 40 points the last 5 mins 

is the rally over ???????????


----------



## nikki (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> As I said on another thread, US futures rolled over after close. Nasdaq was killed thanks to AAPL. Friday swing low was not taken out.
> 
> Anyone looking at going long here for anymore than a very short term trade must have rocks in their heads. Tech and China are the last cards in the deck, and the US hasn't realised yet they may well be stuffed. I would be looking for a severely down day tomorrow in the US. What are people going to buy now? Even the market leaders appear stuffed, and all this mess is spreading to the 'sure things'.
> 
> In 87 there are three trading days that stand out. People might be well advised to look at them, and perhaps see where we might be in relation to that...




Hi Chops_a_must, would you mind point out what you mean by your last comment.


----------



## chops_a_must (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nikki said:


> Hi Chops_a_must, would you mind point out what you mean by your last comment.




Get a daily chart of the xao. Scroll to 1987. There is a long bar. I'm not going to tell you which other two bars you should be looking at, but it should be very very obvious. Perhaps I should have said 4 bars. :


Tech. Are you basing your trades on my SPI comments? :


----------



## nikki (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Get a daily chart of the xao. Scroll to 1987. There is a long bar. I'm not going to tell you which other two bars you should be looking at, but it should be very very obvious. Perhaps I should have said 4 bars. :




hmmm - i did that straight after posting my comment. i see what you mean?


----------



## CamKawa (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Why does XAO look like closing higher on the .75% rate cut news when DOW closed lower today?


----------



## chops_a_must (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> Why does XAO look like closing higher on the .75% rate cut news when DOW closed lower today?




Well, we've tanked harder than them. But my opinion: big players were selling to monkeys on the swing low.

It had every opportunity to do more... and why didn't it? Supply.


----------



## CamKawa (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> It had every opportunity to do more... and why didn't it? Supply.



Yes it certainly looks hard to by GOLD at the moment.

What do you reckon, is this just a dead cat bounce?


----------



## Whiskers (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> It had every opportunity to do more... and why didn't it? Supply.




Just a bit of cautious optimism, til everyone is happy that Bush and the Fed get their act together.


----------



## Temjin (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



doctorj said:


> Since when have you been a discretionary trader???




Heh, I almost had to ask that question too.

But then I am also a bit into discretionary. Practical experiences will help toward the development of systematic trading systems. 

Tomorrow will be a tough one to crack.


----------



## cordelia (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Get a daily chart of the xao. Scroll to 1987. There is a long bar. I'm not going to tell you which other two bars you should be looking at, but it should be very very obvious. Perhaps I should have said 4 bars. :
> 
> 
> Tech. Are you basing your trades on my SPI comments? :




I have a daily chart but I can't zoom in on it ..do you have a link to one..I have been looking thru the forums to see if I can find one but no luck.

cheers
S


----------



## chops_a_must (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*


----------



## treefrog (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


>




attaboy chops - ta


----------



## rub92me (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The 1987 drop exceeded 20%. This time it's different. Honest.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

An 87 style fall-out is certainly possible. Other possibility is an 01 type of follow-up:


----------



## chops_a_must (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> An 87 style fall-out is certainly possible. Other possibility is an 01 type of follow-up:




The test will be clearing out Friday's lows IMO. Bulls really should have been expecting that and wanting that. I'll be bearish until I see that.


----------



## cordelia (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

thanks for that


----------



## GreatPig (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> XJO 5 min chart
> 
> UGLY if long.
> Xmas if short



Well I tried to go short soon after opening this morning when the index was up around 350 points, but the only shorting I have access to at the moment is put warrants and it became too hard.

Firstly, NAB online trading was very slow, and I could barely get market depth let alone place a trade. Secondly, the warrant MM wasn't at all helpful, pulling its offer during that period of time so that I couldn't have bought even if the broking platform was working okay.

In the end I got so sick of taking ages to get a market depth that just showed no offers, and sometimes no bids either, that I gave up.

GP


----------



## wayneL (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Buyers Remorse?

Europe is down this morning. I would have expected a euphoric follow through if this relief rally had any legs.

Still early here, but sellers are in control again.


----------



## numbercruncher (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yah there really isnt any good news around at all , no reason for any serious rally, even the Fed cut, pffft , was always coming at some stage , and just pushes the US (and the rest) closer to the brick wall !

Maybe the market just needs one gynormous blowout so we can start over... 

To much forward growth was/is priced into equitys, the players are seriously starting to see that tomorrows profits cant be assumed using yesterdays calculator


----------



## wayneL (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Well I tried to go short soon after opening this morning when the index was up around 350 points, but the only shorting I have access to at the moment is put warrants and it became too hard.
> 
> Firstly, NAB online trading was very slow, and I could barely get market depth let alone place a trade. Secondly, the warrant MM wasn't at all helpful, pulling its offer during that period of time so that I couldn't have bought even if the broking platform was working okay.
> 
> ...



I really get confused why Aussie MMs behave this way. Shafting traders is profitable for sure, but guaranteeing that most will just eventually abstain.


----------



## willow (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here is the 1929 chart of the DOW when it crashed. Circled is a similar scenario to Chop's post of the 1987 chart and the place where Temjin mention the big day up after the big day down. Also looking a bit like to-days XAO.


----------



## sails (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I really get confused why Aussie MMs behave this way. Shafting traders is profitable for sure, but guaranteeing that most will just eventually abstain.




Option MMs have also not been making continious markets (and largely ignoring option quote requests)  for the last two full days - not even BHP, our most liquid optionable stock - and it's option expiry tomorrow.  Unbelievable 

The broker suggested getting as many people as possible to send an email to the ASX complaining at the MMs thumbing their noses at the rules.  I'm not sure it will do any good as I think they are a law unto themselves.  However, if anyone else has been adversely affected, may be worth putting in a complaint to the ASX.


----------



## willow (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Forgot to mention the three things the 1929 Dow chart, the 1987 and 2007 XAO all have in common is a head and shoulders pattern brought them all tumbling down. Something to remember after a long run-up. Cheers.


----------



## motorway (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In normal times "good" stocks go UP
and "bad" stocks go DOWN....

The same as 

Just like in normal times the Police lock the bad guys up and let the good guys
go about their business...

However in times of panic and mayhem... Curfews are imposed and everybody out and about is suspect......

Good people even can get shot........

(up to each and everyone to define what good IS for their own purpose)

Bullish percent has hit the lowest reading since 1992 (as far back as My data goes)

it is at 6.6%   -----------> That means that only 6.6% of all stocks in the ALL ORDS are on a 2%x3 simple buy signal (It is up to you to determine if a buy signal is a BUY signal)

The seasons of the mkt follow one another..........

It is WINTER that is both an ending and a beginning........It is in Winter that the shortest day comes and goes......... (NOT spring)

The bullish % is a calendar of the market seasons

moving from solstice to solstice always to and fro across the equator...........
Always being contrary, always hinting that this too will pass

That everything that matters is cycles

What is the SUN as far as the mkt is concerned?

sssh.....smart money...

In Winter there is struggle for survival
and also FALSE DAWNS

Too early emergent growth is in danger of late frosts

BUT Just as the shortest day comes early in Winter
So the bottom in a mkt comes early too...

It is not about how long to new highs 
It is about (when looking to go long)
How soon the bottom is passed...

And where is the new real emergent growth...

6.6% is an extreme low reading
But
The mkt moves in it's own Time

In Smart Moneys Time..

Which is the  same Time all the P&F charts of all the stocks in the XAO 
Move, or not as the case may be...



motorway


----------



## GreatPig (23 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Shafting traders is profitable for sure



And yesterday during the big drop, the call warrant I'd had a day or two before spent the whole day with the offer nearly twice the price of the bid. I didn't check what the price really should have been, but I think the bid was way too low - not nice for anyone who might have still had some and was wanting to get out.

Understandably, there were no trades of that warrant during the day.

GP


----------



## motorway (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Mkts trend ...........Mkts reverse
> 
> Sentiment is important in recognizing technical positions
> 
> ...




Bump this post from the time of the August Correction.. ( the point is  about one sidedness, it's danger and opportunity ).

It has  some context and explanation  

A Cap Weighted index is in a sense unreal
What does it mean that it is at some level it was in the past ?

Does it mean all the constituents are doing  exactly the same thing ?
Are the constituents even the same ?

The bullish percent is a bottom up view
( without the bottom there is no top down , there is nothing ! )

And be very  clear...
The B% is Bear Confirmed

But everyone knows that (6.6%! ) by now..
Hence------------>

Even the  Newspapers have it on their front pages



> The low risk area below 30%: Almost everyone who wants to sell has already sold. ( but only ) Once the indicator starts moving up from this area (indicated by reversals on the p&f chart of the bullish %) it is time to start accumulating growth stocks and to attempt bottom-fishing in stocks at multi-year lows.



 ( maybe )

DYOR

motorway


----------



## dhukka (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bless those media muppets with their silly headlines. marketwatch.com is currently running a headline that says "Apple shares cored"


----------



## wayneL (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Bless those media muppets with their silly headlines. marketwatch.com is currently running a headline that says "Apple shares cored"




Must be how they are feeling themselves...


----------



## theasxgorilla (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> A Cap Weighted index is in a sense unreal
> What does it mean that it is at some level it was in the past ?
> 
> Does it mean all the constituents are doing  exactly the same thing ?
> Are the constituents even the same ?




It's a worthwhile question to get you thinking...so relatively speaking, it could always be worse or better than August.


----------



## Gundini (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Let's say, a gentlemens decline for the futures:

I remember when 100 points down hurt me financially. 

2 days x Hundred point down day left me reeling!

These times must be heart breaking for many... 


SPI 200 5,283.00 -96.00


----------



## korrupt_1 (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Upside down head-shoulder formation?

A few scenarios

1. Rally from here to higher resistance levels (5800's?)
2. Retest of the 5400 zone and then higher levels.
3. Failure of the 5400 zone (5200 looks like a good target)
4. 5200 fails then we could be in for new lows (4800 perhaps?)

Perhaps some spec buys at 5400?
Breach of 5400 spec shorts with targets to 5200?

It was good to see that the SPI bounced off the lows quite strongly. I'm slightly bullish in my views now. Up until 4 days ago, I've been a bear and shorting it like there is no tomorrow. Now I'll be considering some spec's long. Perhaps a buy on a rebound of 5400???

Anyway, these are just some of my thoughts... don't blame me if it goes pear shape


----------



## Sean K (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Upside down head-shoulder formation?



 Dodgy H&S, but the double bottom on that gives me a target of 5700.


----------



## wayneL (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Dodgy H&S,



Tasmanian head(s) and shoulders?


----------



## wayneL (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Tasmanian head(s) and shoulders?




Pre-op that is.


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Tasmanian head(s) and shoulders?




LOL


----------



## MS+Tradesim (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Triangle break on XAO 5min. Will see if it holds. May support Kennas' run to 5700.

EDIT: Hmmm. Nope, looks like collapsing as of 13:00


----------



## MS+Tradesim (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nope. Failed for the moment.


----------



## Whiskers (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey, it's quiet here today. Strong finish today. All the bears in despair.  

I'm still of the view that it was overkill and we will settle back into a roughly sideways pattern for the next few months. 

Contrary to some high profile headlines most businesses in the US learnt a lesson from the last recession and are not heavily geared and are well placed to survive any recession or borrow at better rates to take advantage of opportunities.

My thinking is that once they had to report bad news they got stuck into the write downs to get them out of the way ASAP so the next round of reports has little or no bad news. Thats the smart psychological way to go. 

Japan did the opposite and witheld their write-downs for longer and is one of the main reasons for their slow economy. 

While there is no doubt the US has fundamental problems, it is not going to be the end of the world as we know it just yet... at least not here in Aus.


----------



## nomore4s (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Dodgy H&S, but the double bottom on that gives me a target of 5700.




I'm with Wayne, waiting for a major lower high, where that will be and how strong this next rally is could be telling. At this stage I'm thinking somewhere between 5900 - 6000, could depend on how much fight the bulls have left in them.

Would be expecting another test of 5200 at some stage.


----------



## Buffettology (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> I'm with Wayne, waiting for a major lower high, where that will be and how strong this next rally is could be telling. At this stage I'm thinking somewhere between 5900 - 6000, could depend on how much fight the bulls have left in them.
> 
> Would be expecting another test of 5200 at some stage.




I agree.


----------



## nizar (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> I'm with Wayne, waiting for a major lower high, where that will be and how strong this next rally is could be telling. At this stage I'm thinking somewhere between 5900 - 6000, could depend on how much fight the bulls have left in them.
> 
> Would be expecting another test of 5200 at some stage.




Im with you.

I reckon the bottom will be 4500-ish.
Maybe not this year.


----------



## korrupt_1 (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Hey, it's quiet here today.




... and I am thankful that it has been... i need a break!!!


----------



## dhukka (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> If past bear markets are anything to go by we will experience some short sharp rallies that last several days or weeks that may add as much as *10%* or more. To be proven wrong of course.




Looks like we are getting a decent rally out of this. Already bounced more than *7.0%*. However if history is any guide, we should be wary of short sharp bounces because they usually fail and the market ends up diving lower. The chart below shows a couple of short rallies in 2002-2003 that ultimately failed.


----------



## VViCKiD (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So wat does everyone think is the go for tommorow ?
I sold my BNB today and am hoping to get back in at about 17.50 - 18.00 ?
This will offset some capital gains for the year.... 

BNB has bounced back like crazy lately !


----------



## roland (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



VViCKiD said:


> So wat does everyone think is the go for tommorow ?
> I sold my BNB today and am hoping to get back in at about 17.50 - 18.00 ?
> This will offset some capital gains for the year....
> 
> BNB has bounced back like crazy lately !




Hi Vicki, futures are looking for a strong upward move, but I don't think that they have fatctored in the latest news regarding Societe Generale's problems.

Personally I think you may have sold your BNB a little early - but if you made a profit, then no one can argue.

I think we are in for another good day tomorrow.


----------



## Whiskers (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



VViCKiD said:


> So wat does everyone think is the go for tommorow ?




Another 2 to 3% higher, maybe more on the strength of less negative news from the US. 

I see your point dhukka, but I think we were overdone down because of the failure of Bush and the Fed to act sooner. Now that it appears that the economy has Bush's full attention and the Fed has jumped into gear, whether or not it is the right gear, the market has and will get what it wanted.

Roland, I don't think Societe Generale's problems will have much of an affect since it is a fraud issue with some potential to recoup it. 

PS: And base metals and POG look like firming too.


----------



## VViCKiD (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



roland said:


> Hi Vicki, futures are looking for a strong upward move, but I don't think that they have fatctored in the latest news regarding Societe Generale's problems.
> 
> Personally I think you may have sold your BNB a little early - but if you made a profit, then no one can argue.
> 
> I think we are in for another good day tomorrow.




Damn u're right.. I jumped the gun on that one .... I think I am gonna stick that money into OXR. I sold BNB at a loss... My biggest loss so far...


----------



## Kauri (24 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Another 2 to 3% higher, maybe more on the strength of less negative news from the US.
> 
> 
> Roland, I don't think Societe Generale's problems will have much of an affect since it is a fraud issue with some potential to recoup it.
> ...




 Soc Gens problems have been doing the rounds for the best part of this week... methunks they have been factored in and then some..  
Cheers
........kauri


----------



## dhukka (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I see your point dhukka, but I think we were overdone down because of the failure of Bush and the Fed to act sooner. Now that it appears that the economy has Bush's full attention and the Fed has jumped into gear, whether or not it is the right gear, the market has and will get what it wanted.





Whiskers,

That the US government is getting involved by implementing a fiscal stimulus should tell you that things are bad. The government always shows up late to the party. By the time they pass a bill and mail out the checks it will be *3Q08*. 

Also it continues to amaze me that people think interest rate cuts can actually do anything significant. What we saw on Tuesday in the US was Bernanke postponing the inevitable. The market may rally for a few days or a few weeks but when the hit wears off the junkies will come back down to earth. The Fed cut *500* basis points in the last easing cycle while the S&P fell *50%*.    

Whilst we had quite a precipitous fall with *12* consecutive declines in the XAO.   History tells us that the market never recovers on it's first try, it usually fails several times before the market ultimately hits bottom. Even in *1987* when the XAO fell further and more sharply than we saw this time around the market had two very short, sharp rallies of more than* 5%*, both of which failed. You can see the charts here.
Of course every bear market/correction/crash is different. However history suggests what we are seeing now is nothing more than the usual sucker's rally.


----------



## Whiskers (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Dhukka

I know the US is in a mess and like you, I think they are not going about fixing it the best way... but I'm just taking an observational position in that the yanks are what the are and they will do what they do. 

Based on the premise that they will keep proping up their economy until it ultimately fails my theory is that the rest of the world will steadily disconnect from reliance of it so that when it does gasp it's last breath it's influence/impact on the rest of the world will be significantly reduced.

In the meantime, as I have said before, given that the Fed had broadcast that they would cut rates agressively to save the economy, I think we wouldn't have had the last few days of heavy falls if the Fed had made it's cut promptly last thursday or friday as the market expected. 

The US indicies may well decline a bit further, but now that Bush and the Fed have jumped into gear I reckon we will get back to around 6000 and pretty much trend sideways. I don't know if you noticed an observation I posted with a chart earlier that the Aus market moved more wildly relative to the US. 

My theory is that the main concern was not so much about the health of the US economy, but the lack of action to address it. That is I reckon people were afraid their economy would spiral totally out of control because everyone was sitting on their hands. Now that they have jumped to attention I think the perception is (rightly or wrongly) that whatever needs to be done will be done.

It's a forward looking market and I think there is also an element of perception that there will be a change of US government at the end of the year and they just have to survive till then and almost anyone will manage the economy better than the Bush administration.

I guess we will have to see who turns out to be right.


----------



## Sean K (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> XJO 5 min chart
> 
> UGLY if long.
> Xmas if short



How did this trade go Tech?


----------



## Snakey (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Looks like we are getting a decent rally out of this. Already bounced more than *7.0%*. However if history is any guide, we should be wary of short sharp bounces because they usually fail and the market ends up diving lower. The chart below shows a couple of short rallies in 2002-2003 that ultimately failed.




I think you might have the wrong chart....see 1929 and 1987... they might point you in the right direction


----------



## dhukka (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Snakey said:


> I think you might have the wrong chart....see 1929 and 1987... they might point you in the right direction




See my blog with a chart of 1987 here.


----------



## dhukka (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> How did this trade go Tech?




Tech has been a good contrary indicator this week. Just do the opposite of what he did.


----------



## Snakey (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> See my blog with a chart of 1987 here.




Fully agree with what your saying in your blog and good  work but is it possible to change/edit the time frame of the current (2008) chart to the same as the others to give a better comparison with the others.....2008 says jan ..jan..feb..feb..mar..mar others say jan..feb..mar
this will give a better picture of what the future holds
cheers dhukka


----------



## dhukka (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The current chart is a shorter time frame because obviously I cannot provide details of the bottom and the subsequent rally off that bottom. The point of each graph was to show that the market has never rebounded and continued higher on it's first try. Will this time be different?


----------



## Sean K (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Dodgy H&S, but the double bottom on that gives me a target of 5700.



5700.

I didn't trade it of course.


----------



## kash (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Now what direction? Will it continue to 6000 over the next two weeks with america's rescue program and aussie reports coming out. Or will it have to retreat before it comes back up


----------



## Snakey (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> The current chart is a shorter time frame because obviously I cannot provide details of the bottom and the subsequent rally off that bottom. The point of each graph was to show that the market has never rebounded and continued higher on it's first try. Will this time be different?




No Dhukka I dont believe it will be different but an in scale chart will show you 2008 looks more like 1987 than the others with a very sharp drop off and very short first rally similar to 1987. Bottom on xao for me will be 4000-4500 just by looking at the 10 year chart. I know you cant chart the future but if your 2008 chart includes up to 1/6/2008 it will give you the right scale even though the remainder will be blank. Thats if its possible with your setup.


----------



## dhukka (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Snakey said:


> No Dhukka I dont believe it will be different but an in scale chart will show you 2008 looks more like 1987 than the others with a very sharp drop off and very short first rally similar to 1987. Bottom on xao for me will be 4000-4500 just by looking at the 10 year chart. I know you cant chart the future but if your 2008 chart includes up to 1/6/2008 it will give you the right scale even though the remainder will be blank. Thats if its possible with your setup.




Yeah, I could do that snakey but can't be bothered to be honest, creating those charts was a bit of a pain. It would only take about  15 mins to change it and re-post but it's a bit fiddly.  

Agreed 2008 looks more like 1987. 2002-03 and 1994-5 saw *22%* declines from peak to trough, 1987 was *50%*. I think this time round will be somewhere between those two.


----------



## TMC19 (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> An 87 style fall-out is certainly possible. Other possibility is an 01 type of follow-up:




Or it could be what has been posted previously - 01 type follow up.

To state that the market has never rebounded and continued higher on it's first try is a very general statement and I'd question the accuracy. 

I know the circumstances are always different in each situation (and we are supposedly in a bear market now) but didn't we bounce back from the first subprime fallout in Aug this year to a record high without too many 'sucker rallys'

I think that with the reporting season in Australia upon us and the US Gov/Fed working in tandem and doing all they can to support their economy there is a fair chance this downward spiral could correct itself.

But hey who knows, I'm certainly being very cautious at the moment but am a bit more optimistic than I was a week ago.


----------



## numbercruncher (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Never bet against the Fed as they say .....

These guys just make a mockery out of capitalism and free markets, their Interest rate is now lower than Inflation and likely to go lower, essentially free money.

How the USD retains any value at all is a joke, guess we can now expect US corporations etc to start snapping up all the worlds assets with their free "funny" money ?

I reckon if the USD wasnt used as the worlds reserve it would be worth like 1/10th of what it is now. I still think the end game will be the same, complete collapse of the USD and perhaps all fiat currencys, but who knows how long any of that will take, just got to play the game I guess, least we get decent Interest rates down here to protect the value of our money.


----------



## dhukka (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



TMC19 said:


> Or it could be what has been posted previously - 01 type follow up.
> 
> To state that the market has never rebounded and continued higher on it's first try is a very general statement and I'd question the accuracy.
> 
> ...




The statement that the market has never rebounded to new highs on it's first try is specific to those situations that I posted on my blog. That is where the market fell more than *20% *from it's highs. I only have data back to 1983 and I cannot find 1 instance where it has defied the trend I pointed out. Of course, there is a first time for everything.


----------



## korrupt_1 (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wow... what an nice rally right from the open... we're now 100 points up from the open... just amazing!!

Been wanting to scalp a few points on shorts... but just when I'm about to put an order through.... i chicken out thinking this rally has intent and wants to be somewhere higher today....

Any chance of profit taking at EOD? Might be a chance to scalp some points on the down side... Then again, I might take my money and play blackjack at the casino... better odds i'd say!


----------



## powerkoala (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

wow, this is a surprise xao up 3% to 5778 now.
will this be the turning point for a new wave ?
or super dead cat bounce while waiting for us action to solve the problems?


----------



## Kauri (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As alluded to earlier in another thread maybe the spectacular collapse of the markets earlier this week was because over 3 days Soc Gen fire-sale style closed out $8Bln of its rouges positions.. not because of an impending implosion of the worlds economy as feared, and Uncle Ben also bought it and dropped an emergency 0.75% for the wrong reasons..   I need to rethunk my views on XJO, gold, et al, (carries already rethunked...  )... Plan B...
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## powerkoala (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well, this is really big bounce.
almost breaking 5800 area.
will it stay at this level ?
any chartists opinions for this new trend?


----------



## Sean K (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> well, this is really big bounce.
> almost breaking 5800 area.
> will it stay at this level ?
> any chartists opinions for this new trend?



Bloody hell, Aug 07 revisited. I thought 'it was different this time'. LOL

It's not a 'trend' yet, IMO. The cat may still be dead.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think a lower high will confirm if the market will keep going. I am waiting to see what happens on the next downward test. 

*HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS PEOPLE!*


----------



## MS+Tradesim (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Although I didn't call this outcome, check out the charts I posted here:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=249100&postcount=2384

and here:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=249837&postcount=2458

What we're seeing now is not unprecedented. Whether it continues remains to be seen.


----------



## korrupt_1 (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The cat must have had springs on it's feet to bounce this high!!!

I was expecting a bit of resistance at 5600 and particularly 5700, but that came and went in a blink of an eye.

A retest of 5700 followed by a good bounce off that would give me confidence that 6000 is on the card. Failure of 5700 could see a retest back to 5600.

Where it is now, is slightly below 5800.  7 trading session ago, that zone saw much consolidation, so one would expect 5800 to be good resistance level that should contain further increase.

Conditions are overbought and I'm thinking of some spec shorts back to 5700. Anyone with me on that?


----------



## GreatPig (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Around 5800 would be the target for that double bottom showing on the chart.

GP


----------



## J.C. (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone have any thoughts of how the long weekend will affect this last hour of trade? People buying more? selling more? neither? Since we miss a day of trading where the world markets do not... whats the history here?


----------



## powerkoala (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

wow 5851 ... 
this is madness or preparing for australian day celebration ??


----------



## cordelia (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Has anyone seen a chart that drops down continuously and then goes straight back up.......


----------



## korrupt_1 (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone have a sense of de-ja-vu??? this looks kinda like what happened in Aug???!! It's rallied 700pts in about 1.5 days??!!!!!!!!


----------



## Whiskers (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Bloody hell, Aug 07 revisited. I thought 'it was different this time'. LOL
> 
> It's not a 'trend' yet, IMO. The cat may still be dead.




The cat is still alive and kicking... I promise. 

BTW FWIW on the weekly XAO this week is now a huge hammer,  the parabolic SAR on the daily indicating buy  and I'm still happy that on fundamentals it was too over-done... courtesy of that little 'rouge trader'.


----------



## korrupt_1 (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The SPI is offically rigged!!!!!!!

100 points in 30 minutes?!!!!!!!! Has that ever happened before?!!!

All up 250 points in from 10am to 4.30pm


----------



## MR. (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No one likes being left behind!   So we all must have jumped back in.  Worries, recession? "What are you talking about"

If all are setting stops and moving them up as the market increases would this mean the market can turn again and plumit real quick?


----------



## moXJO (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks to telstra my ADSL has been out the last 2 days, so have been missing all the fun. I have to say I was not expecting such a sudden bounce. Will RBA's decision to lift rates have an effect?? Seems like madness at the moment, unless the media has decided to downplay a US recession now. Surely it was not all based on the rouge trader.

Seems like the media barons control the markets, talk about the ultimate way to ramp....
Simple chart patterns playing out again at least


----------



## Edwood (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> The SPI is offically rigged!!!!!!!
> 
> 100 points in 30 minutes?!!!!!!!! Has that ever happened before?!!!
> 
> All up 250 points in from 10am to 4.30pm




more worryingly moves like these make Aus look like a 3rd world market


----------



## Nyden (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I wish there was some actual commentary here : We've had 3 days straight of fairly significant gains, even at the end of the week of the long weekend, yet - no one's calling a bottom? Any T/A insight? Some form of pattern?

I keep wanting to re-enter (at least, temporarily), but am concerned of what this rally actually 'is'. I keep thinking the day I enter, we'll plummet 10% the next day :

Forget the bottom, have we once again hit the 'top' of this rally? Is the next resistance level 5900 or 6000?

I guess I want a crystal ball! Darn, I wish a bottom could be called without hindsight :


----------



## Kauri (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> I wish there was some actual commentary here : We've had 3 days straight of fairly significant gains, even at the end of the week of the long weekend, yet - no one's calling a bottom? Any T/A insight? Some form of pattern?
> 
> I keep wanting to re-enter (at least, temporarily), but am concerned of what this rally actually 'is'. I keep thinking the day I enter, we'll plummet 10% the next day :
> 
> ...




More to the point... how do you see it..
It will be you investing your money ..  
for mine the bottom is well and truly in....
until it sags...
and another bottom surfaces.....  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Nyden (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> More to the point... how do you see it..
> It will be you investing your money ..
> for mine the bottom is well and truly in....
> until it sags...
> ...




Oh, I do personally believe the bottom has been reached; but at the same time ... I seem to be convinced that this isn't going to last.


----------



## juw177 (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nick, 5800 has already been broken through. Any change in your analysis?


----------



## Nick Radge (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No. I'm wrong if we break up through 6100. The higher this bounce goes the _less_ likely we'll see 4800 in the near term and _more_ likely we'll see 4800 as the larger wave pattern unfolds.


----------



## korrupt_1 (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Very good article... but that was written shortly after the crash.... I wonder what they will be saying now?

This latest rally has smashed 5900 and looks to challenge 6000... do they still think 4800 is the utlimate target now?? I'd like to know what they think.

My feel is that 5200 was the bottom... it was tested twice and failed to breach. Now with aggressive cuts on the table, fraud by SG and their 'rouge trader' was the reason for the massive sell-offs, strong and healthy AU ecomony, still relatively strong Chinda growth.... how can you say that the worse is yet to come?

This is just August all over again...

I feel sorry for all those traders that had their account smashed and lost heaps of money, only to see the market bounce back within hours... this is such a cruel game....


----------



## finnsk (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From memory in May 2006 the market went down a lot and then back up and then back lower again I was long ZFX from $13.00 sold at bottom just under $10.00 with in a week back upto $12.50 then back down to $8.00 so it will not surprise me if we are going back down again


----------



## MR. (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

“this is such a cruel game“

That is exactly what it is a “game” Watch whats happening. I hope Nick reply's. One of the first things I look at when reading posts is how long the poster has been trading. (ASF anyway) 
What their motives are you don't know. 

I think its a bit like “Time in the market, not Timing the market”
Everyone knows the market will one day be higher. 
And in my words “with companies profits inflated from all sorts of easy money over the last few years, it is going to go down.” Sorry I can't draw.


----------



## motorway (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> It's a worthwhile question to get you thinking...so relatively speaking, it could always be worse or better than August.




BOTH

Sentiment was worse ( maybe an all time worse )
hence it was also better

and where did the volume come in ?
and what happened ?

motorway


----------



## korrupt_1 (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ok, i was just talking to a friend (who can obtain information from people in the trade) that today's MASSIVE rally was due to force buying. A majority of the rally was not from local fund managers, but more likely from overseas hedge funds that wanted to close out their shorts before the weekend. it was a case of "close the position at all costs". As they close, they pushed prices higher and higher causing many local traders to close out their shorts adding fuel to the fire.

Makes me think that if they wanted to get out of their shorts so desperately,... what do they know that we don't? Do they expect higher prices?

Wasn't this a similar thing that happened to the days leading up to the 'crash'? Overseas fund managers pulled out of all long trades knowing that things were going to get worse? As they sold off their longs, they depressed prices causing a domino effect?

Anyway this is all just speculation and theories.


----------



## MR. (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Copied the following two posts from  *Imminent and severe market correction * thread. Both are dated 4th *April 2007*
And it repeats over and over....... 

*KENNAS*
Oh no, here we go again. I anticipate another round of doomsayers claiming the world is about to implode because the market is toppy and the US housing sector looks ill. This has been going on for some time. Eventually they will be right of course. 

I look forward to the bears rampaging across this thread with gusto. 

*PORPER*
We've been hearing this so much even I got sucked in and have been shorting the market for months.Obviously losing a rather large chunk of my profits for the year 

Any sane person would be going with the market and not fighting against it.

Bound to crash now


----------



## M34N (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> ok, i was just talking to a friend (who can obtain information from people in the trade) that today's MASSIVE rally was due to force buying. A majority of the rally was not from local fund managers, but more likely from overseas hedge funds that wanted to close out their shorts before the weekend. it was a case of "close the position at all costs". As they close, they pushed prices higher and higher causing many local traders to close out their shorts adding fuel to the fire.
> 
> Makes me think that if they wanted to get out of their shorts so desperately,... what do they know that we don't? Do they expect higher prices?
> 
> ...



There could be something to this.

My example: CBA. It was $52.75 at 4:00PM, then at the 4:10PM close, $53.71. That's a near 2% rise at close, on a blue-chip stock. Also BHP; $36.35 > $36.80. All the banks had big gains at the close, note NAB and ANZ.

Some big buying at the close on a long weekend, during these market conditions? Buying into banks of all things! Something is going on alright.

But it's scary to think what will happen over the next 2 trading sessions in the US, and a FOMC meeting coming up after a 0.75% emergency rate cut -- could there be more left to come? Drop more or hold steady?

It's going to be very volatile, that's for sure.


----------



## IFocus (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> ok, i was just talking to a friend (who can obtain information from people in the trade) that today's MASSIVE rally was due to force buying. A majority of the rally was not from local fund managers, but more likely from overseas hedge funds that wanted to close out their shorts before the weekend. it was a case of "close the position at all costs". As they close, they pushed prices higher and higher causing many local traders to close out their shorts adding fuel to the fire.
> 
> Makes me think that if they wanted to get out of their shorts so desperately,... what do they know that we don't? Do they expect higher prices?
> 
> ...




If so then I would imagine its simply about risk next trading day is after two sessions of US and Europe


----------



## Buffettology (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> This latest rally has smashed 5900 and looks to challenge 6000... do they still think 4800 is the utlimate target now?? I'd like to know what they think.
> 
> My feel is that 5200 was the bottom... it was tested twice and failed to breach. Now with aggressive cuts on the table, fraud by SG and their 'rouge trader' was the reason for the massive sell-offs, strong and healthy AU ecomony, still relatively strong Chinda growth.... how can you say that the worse is yet to come?




I was just talking to the smartest guy I know who works professionally in the market for about 20 years now.  This guy is insane with his predictions and trades (not a value investor like me, but a complete and utter freak trader) and he beleives we have reached our bottom at 5200.  This guy works for one of the worlds largest banks, in charge of equity for the firm in India, Hong Kong and China.  

On another note, I talked to probably the second smartest guy I know who works in the markets (not with quiet the same success), but has years beyond many I know and experience unrivaled in world stockmarkets, and he beleives the bottom is well below 5200.  This guy is a professional trader and has done so for a living for years.  

ha ha.  Its really a mixed bag.  

My opinion, I dont have a clue anymore!  I closed some positions today, will close some more if the market goes higher on Monday, but I think we are definately in for a LOT more volatility of which we will see before we get much past the 6000 mark.  But hey, opinions at the moment, dont mean much!


----------



## wayneL (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buffettology said:


> I was just talking to the smartest guy I know who works professionally in the market for about 20 years now.  This guy is insane with his predictions and trades (not a value investor like me, but a complete and utter freak trader) and he beleives we have reached our bottom at 5200.  This guy works for one of the worlds largest banks, in charge of equity for the firm in India, Hong Kong and China.
> 
> On another note, I talked to probably the second smartest guy I know who works in the markets (not with quiet the same success), but has years beyond many I know and experience unrivaled in world stockmarkets, and he beleives the bottom is well below 5200.  This guy is a professional trader and has done so for a living for years.
> 
> ...




At least we've narrowed it down to two possibilities:


----------



## Buffettology (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> At least we've narrowed it down to two possibilities:




ha ha, exactly my point!  

Nobody has an absolute clue, so do what you want, your guess as is good as the next persons!  Expert or not!


----------



## korrupt_1 (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

great... buffetology's 2 smartest friends have conflicting ideas.... we're doomed!!! but i'd go with the smartest guy's views.... he is the smartest for a reason, yeh?

anyway, i'm going to make a scrafical offering this weekend for guidance... maybe a lamb... then at least i can throw it on the BBQ afterwards for the AU day weekend 

(appologies to vegetarians and animal rights people... i'll just go to my butcher instead...)


----------



## insider (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> (appologies to vegetarians and animal rights people... i'll just go to my butcher instead...)




People are too politically correct these days... Have whale instead 
i say


----------



## Nyden (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think everyone needs to lay off the liquor tonight, everyone's just a hint too silly! :


----------



## roland (25 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> I think everyone needs to lay off the liquor tonight, everyone's just a hint too silly! :




well it is the night before Australia Day, we have a duty to be a bit silly!


----------



## roland (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

US futures are looking good, hopefully a long weekend won't dampen the mood.


----------



## cordelia (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As a matter of interest has anyone seen a chart that looks like the recent xao with all the consecutive down days and following up days? It looks very unusual.


----------



## GreatPig (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There are a few similar situations back along the XAO into the '90s, although with not so many consecutive down days.

GP


----------



## Nick Radge (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We're seeing this bounce phase exactly as expected. As I stated in that analysis I preferred the 'jagged' bounce which is known as a zigzag. A zigzag has three leg; up, down, up again. So we're now seeing the first 'up'. The US has dropped overnight, so quite possibly we've seen that first 'up' leg finished and expect a drift lower again to complete the second 'down' leg. This could take a week or two but basically we're in a directionless zone with continued downside bias.

There are two patterns at work; one small and one larger and more sinister one.  Both have the ability to take prices to 4800 but the fact that this bounce has gone a little higher than what is 'typical' suggests that the smaller pattern will only have enough energy to only just take out the 5200 lows this time around and not get to the 4800 level.



_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Sean K (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Holy crap, Oliver is calling the market to go lower. Run for the hills!! 



> "If it is a bear market, it is quite normal to have quite sharp rallies," Dr Oliver said.
> 
> "These bounces can be quite sharp - five to 10 per cent - then the downturn resumes again.
> 
> "I think we will see the market come back down to the lows we saw on Tuesday in the next few months and possibly go a bit lower."




Important to point out the IF it's a bear...


----------



## IFocus (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> People are too politically correct these days... Have whale instead
> i say




Prefer roasted Japanese Whaler myself......


----------



## wayneL (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Holy crap, Oliver is calling the market to go lower. Run for the hills!!
> .



That's IT!

I'm now a bull. :


----------



## dhukka (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> That's IT!
> 
> I'm now a bull. :




ha ha, yep Mr All Ords 7000 by March is now bearish. Brilliant, it's time to buy with your ears pinned back.


----------



## Timmy (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> A Cap Weighted index is in a sense unreal
> What does it mean that it is at some level it was in the past ?
> 
> Does it mean all the constituents are doing  exactly the same thing ?
> ...




This is a great chart Motorway - the Bullish Percent chart at this post, have not seen a better display of sentiment/psychology - whatever it is called.  I don't imagine it is intended as a stand-alone tool, but what a great adjunct to other tools.  Going through my head now are all sorts of possibilities for using something along these lines on an intra-day basis ...bottom-up sentiment indicator, how handy would that be for SPI traders etc?


----------



## austek (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

With all the panic & hysteria that follows severe market falls on the XAO such as now and the recent fall in August, I was asked by a friend today whether I had re-entered the market yet.  This was my email reply -

_*"Not yet but soon.   The market will either shoot up or become volatile sideways, which is the way I’m leaning.

I intend to cover both scenarios and get in at the next higher low if it shoots up.

 If the market stuffs around as I think it will, (just look at the DOW JONES down another 173 points Friday night) I will take a nibble at the next move down. I doubt it will hit the 4800 suggested by Nick Radge and Colin Twiggs,
although I hope it does. 
 Hopefully it will fall to the 5200 low or the 4800 mark, either way doesn’t really matter.  The market will do what it wants.

 I’ll nibble at the half tail position (ala Dr Ehlder) if I’m quick enough, as long as the stocks I want are purchased at low risk.

 Then add more when a previous high is broken.

The downtrend line has already broke but I am suss that it may turn down a bit more, perhaps a retest of the trendline who knows.

Hope to be almost fully in by the time when price makes a higher low

I see further confirmation that the trend has resumed when the 10e crosses the 30e and this date is always the same date as to when the Macd crosses up thru zero (this cannot be an accident)

 Not game at this stage to pyramid any stocks until volatility settles.  Pyramids can ruin a good trade if not perfectly timed

 And nothing is perfect in this caper."*_

The reason I post this is, I am only interested in timing the re-entry into the general market.     
Can this be improved upon without the inevitable risk of picking bottoms?

I'm not really qualified to be giving friends/traders/investors advice so would be interested to here from more experienced traders on a specific re entry
plan.

cheers   austek


----------



## Kauri (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

very simplistic and no more than has been posted already... the way I am looking at xjo at the monent... can change as quickly as ..
Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto< (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> The cat must have had springs on it's feet to bounce this high!!!
> 
> I was expecting a bit of resistance at 5600 and particularly 5700, but that came and went in a blink of an eye.
> 
> ...




Nice analysis korrupt_1

Hell of a double bottom on the chart. a retrace of 38 - 61% of the current move would be acceptable. See what happens on the US on Monday night.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Prefer roasted Japanese Whaler myself......




Vote 1 whale meat!

Funny thing i saw on the news. they interviewed a fella in Japan who ran a whale meat biz. He told the reporter " they're just big fish I don't see the big deal" I love that this is his area of expertise and he thinks they're fish! 

ok back to topic, i think down on Tuesday, no hang on maybe up!


----------



## theasxgorilla (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



austek said:


> The reason I post this is, I am only interested in timing the re-entry into the general market.
> Can this be improved upon without the inevitable risk of picking bottoms?




Presumably you are trading off charts?

What time frame?  If you are not trading intraday then the answer to your question is no.  If you are not trading weekly then the answer to your question is no.  My opinion only of course.

ASX.G


----------



## IFocus (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Vote 1 whale meat!
> 
> Funny thing i saw on the news. they interviewed a fella in Japan who ran a whale meat biz.* He told the reporter " they're just big fish I don't see the big deal" I love that this is his area of expertise and he thinks they're fish!*
> 
> ok back to topic, i think down on Tuesday, no hang on maybe up!




For this reason alone research should be carried out by harpooning Japanese whalers (humanly of course I believe its painless) just to see how small their brains really are............


XAO still think we are at the mercy of the US as sentiment is ruling our market currently IMHO all down to Monday's US market then we will follow for a little while yet down or side ways is my view, no trades until I see a pattern plenty of cockroach's to come yet I expect.

Focus


----------



## RichKid (26 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> *For this reason alone research should be carried out by harpooning Japanese whalers (humanly of course I believe its painless) just to see how small their brains really are............
> *
> XAO still think we are at the mercy of the US as sentiment is ruling our market currently IMHO all down to Monday's US market then we will follow for a little while yet down or side ways is my view, no trades until I see a pattern plenty of cockroach's to come yet I expect.
> 
> Focus




ROFLAO!! clever comeback (...as long as we don't really do that to anyone).

As for XAO, one more trading day to go in the US before we can start a more up to date guessing game again, I'm watching with interest.


----------



## Whiskers (27 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From last weekend:


Whiskers said:


> Since the uptrend from 03 seems to be broken, I'm also going with a change of trend from the August low, because that seems to be the signal that things were going to slow down a bit. So far I think the new trend for maybe the next few months or year, until the US settles down, will be more sideways with a good chance of being slowly up.
> 
> 
> In summary I am leaning toward the XAO coming back to around 6,000 shortly... if it goes the other way and we get a weekly candle below the 100 fib, then I will have to conceed a bear market... maybe.
> ...




So far so good. The XAO came back as expected, not quite 6,000, but near enough. On the weekly although the tail went below 100% the weekly candle finished above the 78.6%, so I not going bearish yet. 

There is another technical reason to support my assumptions, but I will keep that one to myself for now, just in case I've made a complete balls-up  ... except to say that it's about proportion. 

I'm not expecting much retracement in the next week, ie I will be very surprised if it goes below 5,700. Provided Bush gets his finger out and delivers the 'rescue package' asap fwiw and gives a good state of the union address and the Fed doesn't dissapoint the market by reneging on another cut,  I expect the market to trend in the post Aug 07 low SDC and push up beyond the post Oct high SDC in the coming weeks... just to disprove a down trend and confirm consolidation or continuing slower Bull run.


----------



## Snakey (27 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> From last weekend:
> 
> 
> So far so good. The XAO came back as expected, not quite 6,000, but near enough. On the weekly although the tail went below 100% the weekly candle finished above the 78.6%, so I not going bearish yet.
> ...





This chart looks like a bowl full of uncooked spagetti


----------



## Whiskers (27 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Snakey said:


> This chart looks like a bowl full of uncooked spagetti




It does a bit and one could say the market is like that at the moment... but I know what it means. :


----------



## CFD (27 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> It does a bit and one could say the market is like that at the moment... but I know what it means. :




And congratulations on posting xao analysis in the  XAO Analysis thread. Is this still allowed?


----------



## motorway (27 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Timmy said:


> This is a great chart Motorway - the Bullish Percent chart at this post, have not seen a better display of sentiment/psychology - whatever it is called.  I don't imagine it is intended as a stand-alone tool, but what a great adjunct to other tools.  Going through my head now are all sorts of possibilities for using something along these lines on an intra-day basis ...bottom-up sentiment indicator, how handy would that be for SPI traders etc?




Try this one

visualize what the demand and supply curves are doing 


The Bullish % never has stayed at the bottom long ( days ! )

( so what should We be doing )

On relative strength (CRS )
as a guide

In flood tides
An anchor is likely to have the best .

Make sure You don't buy anchors

ie DEAD WEIGHTS

A key word on reversal patterns atm
is "DELAYED ENDING"

The bullish percent prev extreme low reading was oct 97

motorway


----------



## motorway (27 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Remember the seasons of the market unfold in their own time
Each season sows the seeds of the next

Winter is the beginning
BECAUSE it is an end...

Enough work YET ?

motorway


----------



## motorway (27 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here is OCT 97
B% fell to 13 at the bottom

What was the story then at the bottom ?
What was the sentiment ?

DYOR

The future is not the past
one day the world might really end

RISK is always present

motorway


----------



## >Apocalypto< (28 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

IFocus For this reason alone research should be carried out by harpooning Japanese whalers (humanly of course I believe its painless) just to see how small their brains really are............

Ha ha ha,
yep could not agree more!


XAO still think we are at the mercy of the US as sentiment is ruling our market currently IMHO all down to Monday's US market then we will follow for a little while yet down or side ways is my view, no trades until I see a pattern plenty of cockroach's to come yet I expect.

Tonight the us will tell us what the feeling is. If the xao breaks this low then look out. it would then appear that we are in a bear market! bargins will become a lot cheaper!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I enclose two charts. 

The first is a monthly xao which shows the fibmeister, fibonnaci's retracement from recent highs to 1987.

Its interesting that the August 2007 lows were at the 23% retracement level.

Who knows where our market will now settle 
the 38% at 4700
the 50% at 4000 a nice round number
or at 62% at 3320

The 3320 would be a good support resistance line, as the market lurked about this level between March 2000 and June 2002, then it fell 900 points before before the last bull run began in 2003.

The second is a monthly semilog chart which shows the magnitude of the rise from the lows of 1982 to the highs of 1987, a fivefold increase from under 500 to 2306. Thus it is not inconceivable that similar rises or retracements may occur in the future.

Looking at these charts over the weekend,  I've become very very bearish on our market, very.

gg


----------



## numbercruncher (28 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Seems we now have advisors encourage people to bail!




> INVESTORS are being warned to batten down the hatches as the boom times end and hard times loom.
> 
> One financial planner is even warning of a depression as others also quickly move their client's money out of shares and into safe haven investments such as government bonds and term deposits.
> 
> ...




http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23119439-14334,00.html


----------



## roland (28 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I enclose two charts.
> 
> The first is a monthly xao which shows the fibmeister, fibonnaci's retracement from recent highs to 1987.
> 
> ...




bear or bull, I love looking at long term charts like this. Unless you have really doggy stocks then where is all the gloom? I guess like me, being a trader many now have to turn into a hold and wait investor. 

I suppose the real trick would be to try and build enough financial resources to benefit from market dips. When the dip keeps dipping, then there is a real problem with being able to keep up.


----------



## Bushman (28 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> Seems we now have advisors encourage people to bail!
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Wonder when they are going to advise people to run on the banks and stash their cash under the mattress? Actually that would be a poor option given the predictions for inflation. 

At least all the angst will lead to disenfranchised trader to pen the modern version of Waltzing Matilda....

'Once a disinterested Gen X'er, camped by an empty dam'


----------



## Wysiwyg (28 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I enclose two charts.
> 
> The first is a monthly xao which shows the fibmeister, fibonnaci's retracement from recent highs to 1987.
> 
> *Its interesting that the August 2007 lows were at the 23% retracement level.*gg





It is also a note the August correction wasn`t a 23% retracement from highs.I`m sure you didn`t mean that though.??      were  =  are ???


----------



## numbercruncher (28 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bushman said:


> 'Once a disinterested Gen X'er, camped by an empty dam'






Under the shade of a Federal reserve promissory 


.......


----------



## M34N (28 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bushman said:


> Wonder when they are going to advise people to run on the banks and stash their cash under the mattress? Actually that would be a poor option given the predictions for inflation.




I agree. Just more media scaremongering to pander to the public, painting the gloomiest picture possible by quoting "experts" to justify their agenda. Same thing happened during the Feb and Aug corrections last year, they sure panned out like the media said it would 

Fact is that no-one knows where things are, it's going to be the Wall St brokers and billionaires that decide where the market will go, not some "expert" mum and dad investors.


----------



## Temjin (28 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> Seems we now have advisors encourage people to bail!
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I'm in love with that FP now. hahah But then the general public tend to believe that "economists" are generally right. So oh well...you are either a contrarian or a victim. Who do you want to be? 

Though he didn't mention anything about ramping inflation and possible hedge against it by investing in precious metals or other commodities.


----------



## numbercruncher (28 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Fact is that no-one knows where things are, it's going to be the Wall St brokers and billionaires that decide where the market will go, not some "expert" mum and dad investors.





I wouldnt underestimate the Mums and Dads - Atleast a Trillion Dollars in Australian Super funds now, thats a serious serious amount of financial force.

What would you do, Close to retirement, relying on your Super and markets where like they are, youd either be very worried or heading for safe havens im sure.

Not so bad for us youngins still got decades to accumulate.


----------



## numbercruncher (28 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

One little thought I just had, many managed superfunds allow switch-overs between asset classes effective the first of the month, could there be a ship load of redemptions out of say Australian shares, Balanced funds etc to go into cash for Feb 1st, resulting in tons of selling this week ?


----------



## cordelia (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> I wouldnt underestimate the Mums and Dads - Atleast a Trillion Dollars in Australian Super funds now, thats a serious serious amount of financial force.
> 
> What would you do, Close to retirement, relying on your Super and markets where like they are, youd either be very worried or heading for safe havens im sure.
> 
> Not so bad for us youngins still got decades to accumulate.




well if i were close to retirement I would certainly be looking at the safe haven of a cash fund especially if interest rates are on the rise. Older people like certainty especially with no earning capacity. The whole point of a super fund is financial security when you can no longer work. The stock market doesn't really meet that requirement right now.

I don't mind the volatiliy but I would hate to have my life savings invested in the market right now.


----------



## Whiskers (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I enclose two charts.
> 
> The first is a monthly xao which shows the fibmeister, fibonnaci's retracement from recent highs to 1987.
> 
> ...






Garpal, you better put the charts away, or you may never invest again. 

Context is all important... but i'm sorry to say that aint it.  



M34N said:


> Fact is that no-one knows where things are, it's going to be the Wall St brokers and billionaires that decide where the market will go, not some "expert" mum and dad investors.




Actually I find many mum and dad investory quite savy and modest about their life experiences re investing. I haven't seen too many panicking re the general market in Aus. 

Investment success is more about psychology than economics. When you understand a bit about the psychology of people you can get a pretty good idea how people will react and therefore where the markets will go. 

One of the best books I have read years ago is *"Think and Grow Rich" by Napolean Hill. *It's a simple little book, but it carries a powerful message to begin a successful life. You wil know when you have got it. *Joe has it on special now.*


----------



## kash (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

When is the next american Fed Meeting? Do you think they will follow up with another .5% cut so close after the last cut?


----------



## Whiskers (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kash said:


> When is the next american Fed Meeting? Do you think they will follow up with another .5% cut so close after the last cut?




Starts Tuesday US time and should make ann Wed afternoon.

I'm expecting them to cut 25 to 50 because the market is expecting it and seems to have factored it in and I don't think they will not want to dissapoint the market.

But just because I expect them to do what they usually do and react like they usually react doesn't mean that they might get their gut in knots with anxiety and procrastination and not do what they usually do as I expect they won't.


----------



## kash (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

thanks


----------



## Buffettology (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I actually only expect a cut of 25 basis points.  I dont think it will be as high as 50.


----------



## Nyden (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What's with the sudden recovery? 
Dare I say we're in for a green day?

I wish a trend could just be defined, bear or bull ... sick of this undecided fence nonsense :


----------



## Aussiejeff (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> What's with the sudden recovery?
> Dare I say we're in for a green day?
> 
> I wish a trend could just be defined, bear or bull ... sick of this undecided fence nonsense :




It's not as secure as sitting on a fence....

More like a high wire over the Grand Canyon I'd say.....


----------



## Nyden (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> It's not as secure as sitting on a fence....
> 
> More like a high wire over the Grand Canyon I'd say.....




Hmmmm, yes it is too much of a gamble

Today for instance, as someone else mentioned on another thread; is today the last buying opportunity, or the last selling opportunity?

Lest we forget, the last 'expected' rate rise was followed by a decline! A rate cut of 50bps is *already* completely factored in. If we get 50bps, it's business as per usual (which could mean further declines), if it's 25 - we get a massive sell off. 75? And they have very little room for continued drops...


----------



## Nyden (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> It's not as secure as sitting on a fence....
> 
> More like a high wire over the Grand Canyon I'd say.....




Oooooops, ASX has fallen off the wire! 
Did we really perceive Bush's address to be that bad?


----------



## kengaikl (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Hmmmm, yes it is too much of a gamble
> 
> Today for instance, as someone else mentioned on another thread; is today the last buying opportunity, or the last selling opportunity?
> 
> Lest we forget, the last 'expected' rate rise was followed by a decline! A rate cut of 50bps is *already* completely factored in. If we get 50bps, it's business as per usual (which could mean further declines), if it's 25 - we get a massive sell off. 75? And they have very little room for continued drops...




What do you mean by factored in? i reckon the markets are so volitile now that its pretty much impossible to factor in anything. Even if they get a 25bps cut if the market wants to go up it'll probably make up some excuse ie smaller cut means smaller problem.


----------



## MR. (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Re: attached file.



The file is from last nights ABC news. 
The straight lines in Red, Black and White were added by me. 
The graph is the movement in the price of Australian shares less inflation over the past 80 odd years.

Observation by added RED line: Between Approx 1930 and 1980 (50 years) Australian shares as an average was equal to inflation. 

Observation by BLACK and White lines: Is the range in the long term trend as I understand it.

The average P/E of companies at the moment are about 12. 
So whats going on? How much of this spike is due to mining exports? 
How much is due to technology? (automation) 
How much is due to debt boosting profits for the short term?

comments anyone, additions?


----------



## Aussiejeff (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Oooooops, ASX has fallen off the wire!
> Did we really perceive Bush's address to be that bad?




We have seen a real "de-coupling" of WORLD markets vs the US market since the sub-prime fiasco came home to roost. IMO I don't think the rest of the world has any confidence left in the vaunted US Plunge Protection Team.

Anyway, come to think of it, aren't the world financial markets driven by an army of rogue traders shuffling Trillions of funny money around the planet - rather than government officials? So, maybe non-conformance of the markets with the expectations of the "norm" will become the norm?

And gawd help world financial markets if the engine room (China) runs out of coal in less than 5 days..... maybe that looming possibility is giving some folk (including meself) the jitters.


AJ


----------



## kash (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I do not think the fed will drop rate soon after such a big drop. Hopeful there is a little bounce tomorrow to take some profits before everyone gets disappointed with the Fed decision


----------



## chewy (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

thats crossed my mind too kash - also that Aus could increase rates at same too - surely we'd drop some then. But then again the Fed may well cut (which could actually make their decision look less like it was saving the market and more like it is to fight off recession) and Aus could leave on hold (due to global issues and banks own 0.1-0.2 increases) in which case we would probably rally hard.  Meh I've held through all this so far may as well hold and see.


----------



## Lucky_Country (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

August last year we saw a sharp drop followed by a big bounce and that was the start of the bear market.
Over the last week we have seen a sharp drop followed by a big bounce does this mark the start of a new bull market ?


----------



## Nyden (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> August last year we saw a sharp drop followed by a big bounce and that was the start of the bear market.
> Over the last week we have seen a sharp drop followed by a big bounce does this mark the start of a new bull market ?




August didn't signal a bear market? At least, I don't think it did. August was just a correction, we were still in a bull ... we reached highs even?

Some would argue we're entering a bear now.

I'm still undecided :


----------



## korrupt_1 (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

aarrrghh... who is feeling the frustration with the AU markets?!!! 

VIX at all time highs again... This is just madness... DJ up 1.5% last night, yet we close 2.5% down... wtf?!!! even the Japs were up 3% today?!! 

I asked my magic 8 ball... "are we in a bear market?" it replied "maybe"... 

sonofabitch!!


----------



## wayneL (29 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> aarrrghh... who is feeling the frustration with the AU markets?!!!
> 
> VIX at all time highs again... This is just madness... DJ up 1.5% last night, yet we close 2.5% down... wtf?!!! even the Japs were up 3% today?!!
> 
> ...



Is there a VIX on the Aussie market?

'Cause CBOE's VIX is 10% of its highs @ 27.8%


----------



## kash (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well america up last night lets see if we can manage some green


----------



## Nyden (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Are we going to start zig-zagging here again? 130pt drop, followed by a 106 gain (could very well go to 130)

Did yesterday merely reveal to us that a lot of gamblers have bought in as of late? The slightest things trigger a downward spiral?

Oh, how I missed the days of nice steady gains over a year 


I feel that we may get some selling pressure towards the end of the day though ...  anxiety ahead of the fed, as that could really go either way; no matter what the drop. Are people "hoping" for a 75bps? Could be red if they "only" get a 50bps ...


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Did yesterday merely reveal to us that a lot of gamblers have bought in as of late? The slightest things trigger a downward spiral?




Yesterday was the usual option market makers turning on their sell BOT 2 days out from expiry.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Yesterday was the usual option market makers turning on their sell BOT 2 days out from expiry.




great point TH and with the current nerves in the market that created the panic.

Who said the option markets have lost all there Liquidity!


----------



## sails (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> great point TH and with the current nerves in the market that created the panic.
> 
> Who said the option markets have lost all there Liquidity!




LOL - they provide plenty of liquidity *when* it suits them.  

Heard they were fined for failing to provide a market last week - but the fines are probably only pocket money so nothing to stop it happening again when they prefer long lunches (eg 10am to 4pm) to providing option quotes


----------



## korrupt_1 (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Serriously, what's the go with the SPI today?

DJ up last night... and we are down AGAIN? Expected a small fade, but not into the red!!! This is so familiar now...

Also Asia is up for today so far...

Are we in oz truly down under and turn everything upside down?... argh!!! 

As far as I am concerned... the Aussie SPI is totally @#$%^&!!!! It's truly a 3rd world index....


----------



## Nyden (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And we're in the red!

Pretty remarkable fall from the 115+ we were at just *hours* ago...
We'll probably bounce a little, then go deeper into it :

& Korrupt; I think we *need* to fall much further, do our markets really reflect the current risk? We had a run of panic-buying, & now everyone is sobering up & realising "crap I shouldn't have bought".

Our markets have soared over the past few years, & a lot of our stocks are valued on the premise that the good times will never end, we have so many stocks with a P/E ratio of 40 ... frankly, in this market I feel that even a ratio of 10 is too high!

Too many jumping on the wagon too late in the game ... which increased share prices based on nothing


But, the reason for today is probably some rumor going around, or fear of what the US will do tonight based on the whole rate thing. Aussies have just lost their taste for risk, I know I have.


----------



## Edwood (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

nothing to worry about imo, just filling the gap from last nights close to set up for a move higher


----------



## >Apocalypto< (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some more disappointment out of the US combined with a 200+ drop, could really send us plunging! 

lets hope they get there 50point cut!


----------



## kengaikl (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I reckon everyones shorting the market just in time for the FED to disappoint the market with a small cut just like last time. If they aint gonna cut atleast 50 to 75 bps they might as well leave the rates as they are. The markets wants to be surprised for it to move up. Personally i reckon even a 50 bps point cut will probably disappoint too.


----------



## Nyden (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trade_It said:


> Some more disappointment out of the US combined with a 200+ drop, could really send us plunging!
> 
> lets hope they get there 50point cut!




But, are they already expecting that? :
A 50bp cut is not a guaranteed green day.

Some would say the waiting for Christmas is far more enjoyable than Christmas day itself ... after tonight, what do the US have to look forward to for a while? More major bank losses? The next rogue trader? Next piece of bad housing data?

& Over there in the States, what with the low interest rates; the markets are about one of the only places you can keep money with half decent returns ... here in OZ, we have high interest accounts with 8% returns, so a lot of conservative people are avoiding the markets completely here.


----------



## kengaikl (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Please bloomberg, CNBC or any other business related news and media stop freaking out investors.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> I reckon everyones shorting the market just in time for the FED to disappoint the market with a small cut just like last time. If they aint gonna cut atleast 50 to 75 bps they might as well leave the rates as they are. The markets wants to be surprised for it to move up. Personally i reckon even a 50 bps point cut will probably disappoint too.




Sadly i think you are right, the FED has put themselves in a bad situation. from now on investors are all going to look for salvation anytime something goes wrong. these are just normal behavior patterns of a market. for markets to go up they need to go down as well.


----------



## Edwood (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

a large cut may do more harm than good now tho in terms of confirming that things are a complete mess.  the 75pt cut was supposedly called before the market knew about SocGen - a smaller cut now or no cut may signal that things are not that bad after all.  either way I'm likely to be flat tonight (altho have just taken a small long looking for a bouncette)


----------



## Nyden (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> a large cut may do more harm than good now tho in terms of confirming that things are a complete mess.  the 75pt cut was supposedly called before the market knew about SocGen - a smaller cut now or no cut may signal that things are not that bad after all.  either way I'm likely to be flat tonight (altho have just taken a small long looking for a bouncette)




Yes, we might be in for a little bounce here, but I'm not convinced it'll last until close. I believe anxiety will leave us fairly in the red at the close.


& Yes, shorters awaiting the sea of red tomorrow :


----------



## Real1ty (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am betting on a .5 cut because Ben does what the market wants.

I believe the Aus market is factoring in a global slowdown combined with our high inflation issues and the possibility of a housing correction, amongst other things.

I believe our market falls are a realisation of the times to come, combined with a great past few years and the US and asian markets are living in delusion....there time will come.

This is purely a gut feeling on my behalf but IF the US and Chinese markets start to tank later, you might find we won't have the same type of % losses as them for the above stated reasons.


----------



## Edwood (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Yes, we might be in for a little bounce here, but I'm not convinced it'll last until close.




depends how comfortable people will be holding shorts before a rate call where the expectation is for a cut & market rally - if anything we are more likely to see a rise into close as shorts close - imo


----------



## Nyden (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> depends how comfortable people will be holding shorts before a rate call where the expectation is for a cut & market rally - if anything we are more likely to see a rise into close as shorts close - imo




Well, different point of views I guess.

I certainly expect anything *but* a rally from the US tonight. They've already rallied 2-3 days based on the upcoming rate cut. They *rallied* based on bad housing data! On the hope of further cuts. Heck, time was - a market rallied on good news, dropped on the bad ... 

They've already rallied on the cut, it's already factored in. I believe (just my opinion, not worth a lot! Heh  we'll see a strong sell off in the US tonight, (edit) & here in OZ towards the close ... which so far seems to be supported. We're just sinking lower & lower here ... down 40


----------



## Awesomandy (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> I am betting on a .5 cut because Ben does what the market wants.




According to the futures, the odds for a 50bps cut has dropped from 86% yesterday to 75% a little while ago.


----------



## skating101 (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I expect a 50 bp cut will bring in the buyers and will inflate everything until about lunchtime then there will be a massive selloff which is likely to continue for a bit


----------



## kengaikl (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Todays markets are already predicting that the feds going to disappoint.
I feel that the feds going to surprise the hell out of everyone.


----------



## numbercruncher (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

US the next carry trade nation you reckon ?  Feds already lending to it customers below Inflation !


----------



## korrupt_1 (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> I believe anxiety will leave us fairly in the red at the close.





Good call Nyden... looks like it did continue to tank right until the close.. only 9 points of it's lowest low today...

One would have thought there would have been a short covering rally to close the day, but that was just wishfull thinking... I 'betted' a few longs in hoping to catch that wave, but kept getting wiped-out  lost a few K's there...

It's all up to the yanks now... just hope they dont make a dog's breakfast out of it.. but knowing them.. they are likely to do that anyway....

For my 2c's worth ,my prediction for fed rate cuts:
0 point - market crashes - we open tomorrow at around 5400's (in line with Jan 20th's close)
25 point - market crashes - we open tomorrow at around 5500's (lower congestion band around Jan 24th)
50 points - market could crash or rally
75 points - hello MOON, here we come!! - we open around 5800's (back to where started today)


----------



## Aussiejeff (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> depends how comfortable people will be holding shorts before a rate call where the expectation is for a cut & market rally - if anything we are more likely to see a rise into close as shorts close - imo




Nope...

I think I'll dub the ASX "The Little Aussie Bleeder".... and I see blood all the way back through the 5,000 pt long term trend line for the All Ords before any serious turn-around can eventuate.

Chiz,


AJ


----------



## mfp (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The DOW seems perfectly poised for a huge dump tonight, like "buy the rumour, sell the fact". I also think it is overdue for a big surprise to the downside, unlike what we have seen of late where it has rallied on days that European and Asian markets have tanked. Furthermore, it's interesting to note that this 800 point rally off the recent 11700 intraday low has stopped just short of 12500, the August intraday low.


----------



## Buffettology (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ive got a bad feeling about the rest of this week!

I see the Fed only cutting rates 25bps (too hard to tell the effects of their last rate cut considering most effects dont hit the statistics until a year + and anymore could dramatically reduce their ability for further action needed).  I think we will see a DUMP in the US overnight.

Dont think we would see a 75bp cut, highly highly unlikely!


----------



## Bushman (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buffettology said:


> Ive got a bad feeling about the rest of this week!
> 
> I see the Fed only cutting rates 25bps (too hard to tell the effects of their last rate cut considering most effects dont hit the statistics until a year + and anymore could dramatically reduce their ability for further action needed).  I think we will see a DUMP in the US overnight.
> 
> Dont think we would see a 75bp cut, highly highly unlikely!




After the early spike, we lost 3.4% intraday (5850 to 5650). So the market has factored in a Barry Crocker on the DJIA I would say. 

Whether it is 25 bp or 50 bp is splitting hairs IMO. It is the psychological impact of any Fed move. 'We will not let you fall' is the message being projected to the itchy fingered trading and investing masses. An emergency 75 bp cut last week boomed that message out to the Yanks loud and clear. This rate cut is the icing on the cake. So now it is how deep the recession given the Fed is on our side that needs to be decided. 

Personnally I say 50 bp to re-inforce the 'BOLDNESS OF BEN'. Shock and awe is the American way.


----------



## stockwhizben (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

(with the banks getting smashed, goodbye superannuation returns! whats with the safe steadfast cba of late. hmmm)

i agree with the comment about after tonight the US has nothing left to look forward to apart from more dismal earnings and poor economic data

any comments on my prediction that all ords could rocket once bhp and rio report? up until today i thought this would happen now not so sure after Woolworths got done over even after reporting big numbers.
if the bhp numbers arent massive or show signs of slowing the all ords will plummet i believe. 

i also believe the fed will cut by 25 for the reason their market is still holding up and has not been a catastrophic fall and they will think they have done a fair bit with the 75 earlier

ps. Nyden. Have you bought back in on anything or you out? the index stock?


----------



## Lucky_Country (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A 50 BP cut will provide the stimulus needed for a recovery as it has all been long overdue in the US.
BHP and RIO reports should be steady and inline with expectations. Hikes in Iron Ore and Coal will also be a bonus.


----------



## tex.willer (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi,

Just because the market was in a bull run for 4 1/2 years, doesn't mean it will continue to do so forever.

The "smart" heads on Wall street thought that house prices don't fall. All the data during the past 6 months has proven them wrong. Consequently, they got stuck.

The Nikkei peaked at about 40000 in 89, 90. Now it's 13000. They've had close to 0 interest rates ever since.

It took the Dow from 1965 till 1983 to clear 1000 points properly.

My personal opinion is, too many people are "scared" to miss out on the next big bull run.

Consequently we get the pack buying and selling and the increased volatility we've had.

Cheers


----------



## Nyden (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stockwhizben said:


> (with the banks getting smashed, goodbye superannuation returns! whats with the safe steadfast cba of late. hmmm)
> 
> i agree with the comment about after tonight the US has nothing left to look forward to apart from more dismal earnings and poor economic data
> 
> ...




I'm holding out on the index funds; waiting for the markets to cease this volatility, or just buy in a little closer to the distributions date 

Still out, I keep wanting to buy in ... but then I'm reminded by days like this :

I don't think we'll rocket, then again I don't know where we're headed in any term


----------



## kash (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This BP cut was meant to be 75, but they did it early. Can see them following up with another one so soon. I think it will be a token 25 BP because if they do nothing I think we no where the market is going.


----------



## Bushman (30 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All this talk of rate cuts, and the necessity of rate cuts to stimulate immediate posterity, has me thinking of the future. Keynes and his disciples have so indoctinated the higher echelons of the capitalist structure that they must not let the economy fall into recession no matter what the circumstances. Yet everything I have read about markets is that operate most efficiently when left to reach supply and demand equilibrium by themselves. So the quesion is why does the Fed continue to intervene in the markets and not allow them to purge themselves of the excesses of various debt fuelled asset booms? Is it because Bernanke and Co are the standard bearers for the Baby Boomers, the generation who wanted it all and damned be the future? 

Does business truely want or need Fed intervention? With the exception of the housing sector and the Wall Street wizards who have profited handsomely from the glut of cheap debt awash in the market, the answer must be a resounding 'no'. Sound businesses with strong balance sheets are in the best position to ride out a natural cycle of economic contraction, safe in the knowledge that they have taken the measures to protect shareholder wealth for use when markets return to a natural growth cycle. Yet, as we have seen, when a bubble bursts, all market participants get savaged in the flight to liquidity. How then do these companies feel when the Fed intervenes time and time again with swads of printed money? 

This is a question for the ages. I read an interesting anecdote in an article the other day. Apparently when Jean Baptiste Colbert, the finance minister for King Louis XIV of France in the 17th century ('who was a fanatic government intervener under the Mercantilist economic philosophy'), asked a group of businessmen what he and the King could do for them and their industries, they vehemently replied, "Laissez-nous faire!" Leave us alone!

There are numerous profitable Australian companies who would be shaking their collective heads when faced by Bernanke's continued efforts to provide those who least deserve it with a liquidity boost to simply replace the money they have evaporated with their financially geared business models. This is madness and it will come back to bite future generations of investors as the excesses of the bubble economy remain locked in the balance sheets of the greedy bankers becoming fat off valuations they know can only be propped up by further liquidity.

I have given up boozing and smoking as I know that I will pay in the future for the whims and folly of today. When will the US capitalist machine, and its small Australian and Japanese love children, cure itself of its addiction to cheap US dollars? When will punters accept the natural cycle of supply and demand? The two go hand in hand in there is not the generational will power to accept lower returns today for the good of wealth creation for future generations. So we all sweat on 50 bp to save the day, unsafe in the knowledge that the toxicity of malignant debt will fuel the asset bubble and stock market crash of tomorrow. 

Worrying times....


----------



## kengaikl (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Bushman said:


> All this talk of rate cuts, and the necessity of rate cuts to stimulate immediate posterity, has me thinking of the future. Keynes and his disciples have so indoctinated the higher echelons of the capitalist structure that they must not let the economy fall into recession no matter what the circumstances. Yet everything I have read about markets is that operate most efficiently when left to reach supply and demand equilibrium by themselves. So the quesion is why does the Fed continue to intervene in the markets and not allow them to purge themselves of the excesses of various debt fuelled asset booms? Is it because Bernanke and Co are the standard bearers for the Baby Boomers, the generation who wanted it all and damned be the future?
> 
> Does business truely want or need Fed intervention? With the exception of the housing sector and the Wall Street wizards who have profited handsomely from the glut of cheap debt awash in the market, the answer must be a resounding 'no'. Sound businesses with strong balance sheets are in the best position to ride out a natural cycle of economic contraction, safe in the knowledge that they have taken the measures to protect shareholder wealth for use when markets return to a natural growth cycle. Yet, as we have seen, when a bubble bursts, all market participants get savaged in the flight to liquidity. How then do these companies feel when the Fed intervenes time and time again with swads of printed money?
> 
> ...




The only reason the Fed continues to intervene in the markets and lower rates is to hope that soon the credit markets will return to normal. THAT IS THE MAIN REASON. Without functional credit markets even the most prudent banks/businesses face difficulty raising funds to continue their operations.


----------



## Kimosabi (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> The only reason the Fed continues to intervene in the markets and lower rates is to hope that soon the credit markets will return to normal. THAT IS THE MAIN REASON. Without functional credit markets even the most prudent banks/businesses face difficulty raising funds to continue their operations.



I'm still trying to work out why a privately owned institution is allowed to manipulate the money supply and monetary policy of an entire country...


----------



## korrupt_1 (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

50bp cut by the feds

SYCOM trading around 5610 prior to announcement.

Jumped to 5670 in 2 minutes.


----------



## stockwhizben (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

my prediction today is up 100 pts at the open, then a fall off over the rest of the day to settle up but not as high. after the 75 cut last week this happened and i bought in at the open and got stung big time with the drop off as the day wore on.


----------



## kash (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What the market wants the market gets. Benny must be worried. I didn't expect it but hope this will steady the market. Or does this say that the situation worst and theres more come


----------



## wayneL (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stockwhizben said:


> my prediction today is up 100 pts at the open, then a fall off over the rest of the day to settle up but not as high. after the 75 cut last week this happened and i bought in at the open and got stung big time with the drop off as the day wore on.



US indices are now selling off hard from their highs. SPI is 5606 just before US close.

Looks like ASX open will be flatish to down. Failing that, it will be up. (Professionals hedge folks )


----------



## rico01 (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stockwhizben said:


> my prediction today is up 100 pts at the open, then a fall off over the rest of the day to settle up but not as high. after the 75 cut last week this happened and i bought in at the open and got stung big time with the drop off as the day wore on.




The dow is now off 3 points so we could be in negative terrritory again today


----------



## Nyden (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rico01 said:


> The dow is now off 3 points so we could be in negative terrritory again today




Try 63 :

Unfortunately, I think we're headed for more red today; aside from the rate drop, nothing's changed. We were negative in sentiment yesterday, we'll be negative today.

I'd prefer our markets remain stable though, I want the RBA to up our rates


----------



## wayneL (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

He doth cut too much. LOL


----------



## Aussiejeff (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Try 63 :
> 
> Unfortunately, I think we're headed for more red today; aside from the rate drop, nothing's changed. We were negative in sentiment yesterday, we'll be negative today.
> 
> I'd prefer our markets remain stable though, I want the RBA to up our rates





Oh dear. The PPT just got washed down the US's crappy plug hole. The "Little Aussie Bleeder" will slash it's wrists today.... bring more mops and buckets!

Time to dig that bunker out the back yard.....

P.S. Is the world heading for a "barter" economy once the funny paper and e-money becomes worthless?


AJ


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nah think we will be going higher. If I had to guess. A close higher than the low put in the morning.

The end of the world is now priced into to market. What I see getting us into trouble now is a breaking up of commodities. I'm looking to fade any more bad news as a tactic from here. But at the same time not getting carried away with any up side. The chances of a retest of the low of 5500 are high I just don't think yet.


----------



## numbercruncher (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think there was enough bad news yesterday to finish red today


----------



## Real1ty (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Nah think we will be going higher. If I had to guess. A close higher than the low put in the morning.
> 
> The end of the world is now priced into to market. What I see getting us into trouble now is a breaking up of commodities. I'm looking to fade any more bad news as a tactic from here. But at the same time not getting carried away with any up side. The chances of a retest of the low of 5500 are high I just don't think yet.




Got no idea where we are headed today.

I don't believe we are priced for the end of the world yet, but we are someway there.

O/S markets are no where near it yet, imo.

More carnage to come once the afterglow from Benny's present fades and the kids playing with their toy realize it is a cheap made in China that breaks.....


----------



## Sean K (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> The end of the world is now priced into to market.



Salient point TH. 

As the market is a forward looking beast, just when is the worst factored in? 

The Bears have been proclaiming that we had worse and worse to see, while the Bulls have continued to come out with cup half full solutions based on stronger for longer, global decoupling from the US theories. 

Just where are we now?


----------



## MR. (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Just where are we now?




On the Giant Drop at dream world!

Brakes come on soon! Don't they? (-2.8% first 35 mins)


----------



## Aussiejeff (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Salient point TH.
> 
> As the market is a forward looking beast, just when is the worst factored in?
> 
> ...




I can see a lot of Bears sniffing piles of Bull**** on the ground, but no sign of the horny critters themselves...


----------



## Bushman (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> On the Giant Drop at dream world!
> 
> Brakes come on soon! Don't they? (-2.8% first 35 mins)




The smell of metal on metal is wafting through the air. Here is the rapid ascent... to be followed by a sell off like yesterday? 

Very entertaining and enlivening a dull day at the office.


----------



## powerkoala (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ok.. this is a joke right?
after we down 2.8% now we go up to green area ?????
rally for 160 points in 1 hour ?
what the $^#@@# is wrong with our market ??


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



powerkoala said:


> ok.. this is a joke right?
> after we down 2.8% now we go up to green area ?????
> rally for 160 points in 1 hour ?
> what the $^#@@# is wrong with our market ??




Nothing wrong with this market my fury little friend.

What you are seeing is a wash out. And Squeeze.


----------



## finnsk (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> What you are seeing is a wash out. And Squeeze.



Please explain


----------



## Kauri (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ASX20 seems to be leading the way... can guess why of course..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Buffettology (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



finnsk said:


> Please explain




Squeeze, now the market has turned around, those with shorts forced to buy the stocks to hedge their bets, pushing the prices even higher.


----------



## finnsk (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buffettology said:


> Squeeze, now the market has turned around, those with shorts forced to buy the stocks to hedge their bets, pushing the prices even higher.



Thank you


----------



## Kauri (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> ASX20 seems to be leading the way... can guess why of course..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Only a guess of course..
 Asian share markets in generale have moved into the black following after hearing *rumours/stories* that MBIA have strengthened their capital position by 1.5 BLN USD and plan to raise additional capital to help maintain their triple-A rating with the ratings agencies.
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## josjes (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You are right Kauri.
See news just coming:
http://www.rttnews.com/sp/breakingnews.asp?date=01/30/2008&item=135

Gary C. Dunton, MBIA Chairman and CEO, said, ”We have now strengthened our capital position by $1.5 billion, including the recently completed $1 billion surplus notes offering, and we intend to raise additional capital in the coming weeks.”

MBIA said its comprehensive capital plan, which would improve position by over $2 billion, has been recognized by Fitch Ratings, and has been affirmed Triple-A ratings with a stable outlook. Standard and Poor's Ratings Services, has also affirmed the company's Triple-A ratings with a negative outlook. The company said it would continue to work with Moody's Investor Services, which has placed MBIA's ratings on review for possible downgrade, as the company's capital strengthening plan progresses.


----------



## MR. (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For those who didn't know, here is some data with regards to the 1987 crash and now which I have put together. Hope some find it interesting:

Attached is a report from channel 9 before the US crashed in 1987. Dramatised but "Don't Panick" the All Ords just dropped 80 or 3%.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJ_AJodDDXI

In the month leading up to the 1987 stock market crash the DOW had dropped 11%
In the month leading up to the 22/1/08 the DOW had dropped 9%

On the day of the US market crash 19/10/1987 (before US markets opened and crashed) Hong Kong closed down 11%, Japan was down 3% and Australia was down 4%.
On the 22/1/08 Hong Kong closed down 9%, Japan down 6% and Australia down 7%. Then the FED's 0.75%  saved the day is my opinion.

In the 1987 crash the US dropped 22%,  Australia 25%, Japan 15% and (Hong Kong 33% a week later.)
Two days after the crash (the bounce) the DOW had gone up 16%, Hong Kong didn't get a bounce, Japan went up 10% and Australia had gone up 3%. 

Three weeks later the DOW was 15% down, Hong Kong was 45% down, Japan was 18% down and Australia was 45% down (from the day before the crash). 

Note: The All Ord's over the last two corrections ie: 16/8/07 and 22/1/08 bounced back hard and what an easy way to make money your thinking right?.... *But in 1987 after a 25% fall in one day the All Ord's only came back 3% before falling further to a total of 45% three weeks later.* It didn't bounce.  
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^AORD&a=749&b=16&c=1987&d=10&e=11&f=1987&g=d

In the three weeks from the 1987 crash the DOW and the All Ord's erased a years share market growth. The DOW and the All Ord's have already erased a years growth now, without “the US crash.” 

Damage done all the same. Perhaps there is time to put the mattresses out under the windows!


----------



## rja2439 (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All I DEFINATELY know is that Tracey Grimshaw has been on tv for too long. Gotta love that big doo of hers back then haha


----------



## kengaikl (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All this talk of a market crash is truely mad. The market hasnt been this cheap in 18 years. The PE 's are below the long term average and if im not mistaken through out history sharemarket crashes occur when PEs are in their high 20's to 30's. World markets seem to have fallen more than the US markets where all the problems are coming from. People should just get over it, so what if the US slows down. The 97 asian financial crisis had a bigger impact to Australia and yet we were able to pull through.


----------



## habs (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

just a rambling thought...

In a year or year and a half when the whole sub prime thing is really out in the open and over and done with, the market just might wake up to just how cheap some stocks have become in australia. The amount of value out there atm is just staggering in some of the smaller stocks, im not going to name them, but there are plenty that are hovering at unrealistic current prices, purely  because of market instability at the moment.


----------



## Buffettology (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> All this talk of a market crash is truely mad. The market hasnt been this cheap in 18 years. The PE 's are below the long term average and if im not mistaken through out history sharemarket crashes occur when PEs are in their high 20's to 30's. World markets seem to have fallen more than the US markets where all the problems are coming from. People should just get over it, so what if the US slows down. The 97 asian financial crisis had a bigger impact to Australia and yet we were able to pull through.




I think its more about sentiment than fundamentals.


----------



## kash (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Now the big question where will the market go tomorrow?


----------



## kengaikl (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kash said:


> Now the big question where will the market go tomorrow?




UP!


----------



## Aussiejeff (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kash said:


> Now the big question where will the market go tomorrow?




Away?


----------



## sam76 (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

off?   :scratch:


----------



## Buffettology (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> Away?




I dont get it.

I think it may go up tomorrow and the next day.  But a fall is most definately on its way in the coming weeks.


----------



## kash (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buffettology said:


> I dont get it.
> 
> I think it may go up tomorrow and the next day.  But a fall is most definately on its way in the coming weeks.




What do you think will be the contributing factor of this coming fall? Rate rise? Reporting seasons not meeting expectations? World market uncertainty?


----------



## Bushman (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kash said:


> What do you think will be the contributing factor of this coming fall? Rate rise? Reporting seasons not meeting expectations? World market uncertainty?




I think it is more a case that your Joe average investor now feels a bit like A-rod when he takes on the Fed (as is Federer, not the Federal Reserve). He has taken a helluva a beating over the last six months and he expects to take a helluva beating in the immediate future. 

Just put it down to that funny little feeling deep inside - and I'm not talking about love here.


----------



## MR. (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So as the last 3 lines of my last post indicates, you guys already know. There isn't going to be a US crash. 
And I've been checking the US markets each morning. Dummy!

I know the P/E's look good. But I want to know how much of that profit is linked to the excessive debts Joe Average has racked up not just here but all over the world? Which ofcoarse flows through China and commodities.


----------



## tex.willer (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How much of this economic boom is debt driven is the key ...

What if there's slowdown in China => Slowdown in Aus => Falling dollar => rising unemployment => 500 billion private net foreign debt?

Will our local house prices keep on rocketing in that case?


----------



## zhang66777 (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

is there anybody who can tell me why today our market is up, especially rio and bhp?
thanks


----------



## Nick Radge (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> is there anybody who can tell me why today our market is up




Yes, we've entered a new cycle. Its called "Spin and Rinse" and comes before "Hang Out to Dry"


----------



## josjes (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That is euphimism for fund managers pushing up prices to dress up their portfolio performance at the end of the month. Correct Nick ?


----------



## Bushman (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> But I want to know how much of that profit is linked to the excessive debts Joe Average has racked up not just here but all over the world? .




Just heard the Tricomm CEO on ABC radio state that their margin loan book has decreased from $2b plus in June 2007 to $950m in January 2008. This has been the direct result of margin calls over the six months. Ouch!! So the leverage boom in Aussie securities has been substantially 'unwound' over the last 6 months it would seem. Multiply that by X and there are a lot of 'mums & dads' licking their wounds out there. 

Ah the joys of debt...


----------



## zhang66777 (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Yes, we've entered a new cycle. Its called "Spin and Rinse" and comes before "Hang Out to Dry"




do you mean you don't think that bhp will increase the offer?
one more question what will happen if bhp really increase the offer, i think rio will drop anyway even after takeover, what do you think?


----------



## Nick Radge (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> That is euphimism for fund managers pushing up prices to dress up their portfolio performance at the end of the month. Correct Nick ?




I was being facetious. You however have made a very valid point that I hadn't considered. A down night in the US may see us play some catch up tomorrow.


----------



## zhang66777 (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> I was being facetious. You however have made a very valid point that I hadn't considered. A down night in the US may see us play some catch up tomorrow.




please tell me, i am quite new, i don't have any idea about takeover and the consequence of that,thank you very much


----------



## Buffettology (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kash said:


> What do you think will be the contributing factor of this coming fall? Rate rise? Reporting seasons not meeting expectations? World market uncertainty?




What bushman says.  A rate rise could trigger it off also, but if the US remians strong, we should remain relatively strong also.  Once sentiment turns for the worst there also, I think we will face a dramatic fall.

Everybody keeps talking about P/E ratios, remember, they dont take into account profit.  Companies over the last several years have been dramatically decreasing costs, hence, greater profit margins.  Therefore, P/E ratios can now be slightly higher than long run historical ratios and the company stil be the same "value".  

So I think its more your last option, world market uncertainty.  Nobody even knows if the US IS in recession yet, remember economists have predicted 15 out of the last 5 recessions!  It will really all have to unfold and the figures released until we see the true state of things and where we are headed.  I for one, beleive this will be bad, with possible stagflation and hence a HUGE problem for the US, which of course will feed through to the rest of the world.


----------



## korrupt_1 (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



zhang66777 said:


> please tell me, i am quite new, i don't have any idea about takeover and the consequence of that,thank you very much




hi zhang,

Generally the taken over goes up and the taker goes down. in this case bhp goes down, rio goes up. 

Thats what normally happens, but of late anything can happen and it's just too risky betting on what-ifs. wait for a trend and go with it...

Really you should be discussing this over on the bhp or rio thread. This thread is for discussing the xao in general.

Good luck with your trades


----------



## JTLP (31 January 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buffettology said:


> remember economists have predicted 15 out of the last 5 recessions!




WOW! They are predicting 3 recessions in 1! Is that a super recession?


----------



## Buffettology (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

WOW, the DJ has fallen over 1% on the back of a 50bp cut!  Interesting to see how this pans out!  I think if it closes down, the ASX is going to be in panic mode at open!


----------



## wayneL (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buffettology said:


> WOW, the DJ has fallen over 1% on the back of a 50bp cut!  Interesting to see how this pans out!  I think if it closes down, the ASX is going to be in panic mode at open!



I smell PPT involvement atm. (looking at price action/intraday support)

Don't be surprised by some green by the end of the session.


----------



## Buffettology (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I smell PPT involvement atm. (looking at price action/intraday support)
> 
> Don't be surprised by some green by the end of the session.




I agree by the looks of it now.


----------



## wayneL (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buffettology said:


> I agree by the looks of it now.



PPT doesn't have to do all that much; support, it get it moving and traders take over... brilliant!


----------



## Sean K (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> PPT doesn't have to do all that much; support, it get it moving and traders take over... brilliant!



Wayne, is the 'PPT' a term now used by jaded Bears to explain the Bulls taking over the running?  Seems the PPT is picking up a few cheap shares at the moment. 

(disclaimer: I have no idea about the stock market, but am prepared for the 'real' crash)


----------



## wayneL (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> *Wayne, is the 'PPT' a term now used by jaded Bears to explain the Bulls taking over the running?*   Seems the PPT is picking up a few cheap shares at the moment.
> 
> (disclaimer: I have no idea about the stock market)



There are certainly times when this is true, and could even be the case in this instance. Just my opinion. 

Disregard if appropriate.


----------



## Nyden (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sigh, wish the US would just have it's crash already! It's due for a 1000+ plummet, dammit.

Then I could actually start doing something, re-enter the market a little without fear of losing another 20% in 2 days :

Maybe a whole bunch of Aussie funds will sell today, can only hope 


Edit; Perhaps average joe is too busy with this superbowl thing over there to sell? :


----------



## Sean K (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> There are certainly times when this is true, and could even be the case in this instance. Just my opinion.
> 
> Disregard if appropriate.



As you know, I'm running through the streets of Pamplona at the moment.


----------



## wayneL (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> As you know, I'm running through the streets of Pamplona at the moment.




 Dangerous game


----------



## nizar (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



JTLP said:


> WOW! They are predicting 3 recessions in 1! Is that a super recession?




THis is GOLD!  Haha good stuff


----------



## IFocus (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Dangerous game




Looks like a bull market to me.........


----------



## wayneL (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Looks like a bull market to me.........




Notice...no bears. They've headed for the Pyrenees.


----------



## korrupt_1 (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

wow, hands up if you expected that overnight... bad news in US, and the DJI rallies, WTF!! Sounds like the good old days of buy good news, buy bad news are back!!

our aussie SPI has been doing massive swings lately...

by a really rough calculation (i mean really rough), we've done around 3000 points over the last 8 trading session from peaks to dips since the crash on Tuesday 22nd.


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> wow, hands up if you expected that overnight... bad news in US, and the DJI rallies, WTF!! Sounds like the good old days of buy good news, buy bad news are back!!




The US went up for the same reason the Asian markets went up yesterday.

The sellers have been washed out and its time for the squeeze.


----------



## Kauri (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some of the possible drivers of the US market which may affect the colour of our day.. or the way we squeeze our fresh brekky oranges...
Some stock reports attributing afternoon gains on stocks on the conference call from MBIA who does not see its rating in trouble and who actually offered AMBAC $5 bln in reinsurance. 
Bad news from ratings agencies has been mostly ignored today in this stock rally with S&P reporting that a rise of a downgrade is at a two-year high and with Moody"s raising expectations of subprime losses to 14-18% earlier this morning from current actual losses of only 1.5%. Earlier today, Fitch downgraded US Auto ABS bonds and also reported that losses on Prime US auto ABS surged 60% in December on a year-over-year basis. The FDIC warned today that hundreds of thousands of foreclosures are looming and also noted today were a number of job layoff announcements. 
S&P has cut FGIC ratings and put MBIA and XLCA on ratings watch negative. The move was announced only 8 minutes before the market close, fuelling the sharp fall in the stock market off the highs.


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Some of the possible drivers of the US market which may affect the colour of our day.. or the way we squeeze our fresh brekky oranges...




Kauri,

Do you actually trade off all this news you collect or just like reading??


----------



## Kauri (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> Kauri,
> 
> Do you actually trade off all this news you collect or just like reading??




Check my posts re my trading... usually.. sorry.. always.. posted in real time...   I find the "news" laced with my attempts at T/A serve me quite well. However, each to his own I guess.
  The "news",  or more accurately rumours, I post are what is actually floating around the floors... I strangely enough find it more helpfull than the oft quoted.. profit-takers have moved in... bargain-hunters appeared..... at al.. usually trotted out by "talking heads" to explain away what they can't explain...
  Where, or more inportantly which direction, is the aforementioned squeeze going to take us?? 
  Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Where, or more inportantly which direction, is the aforementioned squeeze going to take us??
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




As i said yesterday.

UP


----------



## Kauri (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


> As i said yesterday.
> 
> UP




  So regardless of what is happening in the world and BB's mind.. yesterday was a wash and squeeze... and when the market goes up today it is still a wash and squeeze???  and if the market goes up on subsequent days we are still washing and squeezing for all we are worth... when do we run out of lemons to squeeze.. when the market turns... when profit-takers step in.. when someone changes the rates.. when a downgrade to a monoline happens... when China starts shutting down refineries.. when a "talking head" tells us... when the PPT says it's time for a break... or maybe when my budgie falls off its perch???
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> So regardless of what is happening in the world and BB's mind.. yesterday was a wash and squeeze... and when the market goes up today it is still a wash and squeeze???  and if the market goes up on subsequent days we are still washing and squeezing for all we are worth... when do we run out of lemons to squeeze.. when the market turns... when profit-takers step in.. when someone changes the rates.. when a downgrade to a monoline happens... when China starts shutting down refineries.. when a "talking head" tells us... when the PPT says it's time for a break... or maybe when my budgie falls off its perch???
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri


----------



## IFocus (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> So regardless of what is happening in the world and BB's mind.. yesterday was a wash and squeeze... and when the market goes up today it is still a wash and squeeze???  and if the market goes up on subsequent days we are still washing and squeezing for all we are worth... when do we run out of lemons to squeeze.. when the market turns... when profit-takers step in.. when someone changes the rates.. when a downgrade to a monoline happens... when China starts shutting down refineries.. when a "talking head" tells us... when the PPT says it's time for a break... or maybe when my budgie falls off its perch???
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




It would be really handy if you could let us know when your bugie takes his next bath....


----------



## Kauri (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trembling Hand said:


>





sorry..   
 I take it we are washing out the sellers and it is a short squeeze we are experiencing???

  I would have thought if a short squeeze was on the table it would have happened on 23rd..24th..and 25th of Jan.. (along with Tricoms margin call problems).. but I can't really see a mass of shorts being established over the past3 days that are being squeezed that would not have already been through the juicer last week?? (last bar is todays. so far)


----------



## numbercruncher (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Another Bearish signal for you all to mull over 



> Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Australian manufacturing shrank in January for the first time in almost two years after raw- material costs increased and financial markets slumped.
> 
> The performance of manufacturing index fell 8.4 points to 49.2 from December, PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Australian Industry Group said in a report released in Canberra today. That's the first reading lower than 50 since May 2006, which indicates manufacturing is contracting.




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aR9yhfmd9Yp4&refer=home


----------



## Bushman (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> Another Bearish signal for you all to mull over
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aR9yhfmd9Yp4&refer=home




Given the many who are invested in commodities, an increase in raw material costs is a good thing if it reflects higher commodity prices. 

The financial markets bit is a bearish signal...


----------



## MR. (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> I would have thought if a short squeeze was on the table it would have happened on 23rd..24th..and 25th of Jan.. )



Does make sense.....

A question, does anyone think here there is anything in the following volumes to sellers and buyers?


WOW totals (Buyers 650) (Sellers 390) but the volumes units are about the same.

RIO totals (Buyers 1040) (Sellers 480) but the volumes units are about the same.

Similar for many others eg: BHP, CBA, NAB. there are twice the about of buyers as sellers for the same units and it has been like this for days!

My un-educated guess:
- The educated are unloading to the unsuspecting?
or
- The educated are buying small amonts adding to their holdings from panicking sellers.

Does it depend on which side of the tree you sit on for an answer?
comments:


----------



## MR. (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thats fence not tree. Blooooooody un-educated................................


----------



## Buffettology (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



JTLP said:


> WOW! They are predicting 3 recessions in 1! Is that a super recession?




I guess you would call it a "great depression", if all their recession predictions eventuated


----------



## IFocus (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> Does make sense.....
> 
> A question, does anyone think here there is anything in the following volumes to sellers and buyers?
> 
> ...




I am not sure you can always read to much into the big caps depth it can be an indication and it can be manipulation, big buyers and sellers are loath to show their hand as others can take advantage.

Some time you can see the foot print in the course of sales on the size of the buy sells but in the end price is king.


----------



## Buffettology (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Some of the possible drivers of the US market which may affect the colour of our day.. or the way we squeeze our fresh brekky oranges...
> Some stock reports attributing afternoon gains on stocks on the conference call from MBIA who does not see its rating in trouble and who actually offered AMBAC $5 bln in reinsurance.
> Bad news from ratings agencies has been mostly ignored today in this stock rally with S&P reporting that a rise of a downgrade is at a two-year high and with Moody"s raising expectations of subprime losses to 14-18% earlier this morning from current actual losses of only 1.5%. Earlier today, Fitch downgraded US Auto ABS bonds and also reported that losses on Prime US auto ABS surged 60% in December on a year-over-year basis. The FDIC warned today that hundreds of thousands of foreclosures are looming and also noted today were a number of job layoff announcements.
> S&P has cut FGIC ratings and put MBIA and XLCA on ratings watch negative. The move was announced only 8 minutes before the market close, fuelling the sharp fall in the stock market off the highs.




Some good analysis Kauri, thx.


----------



## Buffettology (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> The "news",  or more accurately rumours, I post are what is actually floating around the floors...




Absolutely the most important thing to me also.  I have a live feed to the floor on Wall Street which I usually try to watch also at least for the opening hour or so to get the feeling for the day.


----------



## dhukka (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

When I read posts like this I get vision of a child with his hands over his ears  repeating "I can't hear you, I can't hear you", which is fine as long as you keep your hands over your ears. However sooner or later you have to take them away and face reality. 



kengaikl said:


> All this talk of a market crash is truely mad. The market hasnt been this cheap in 18 years. The PE 's are below the long term average and if im not mistaken through out history sharemarket crashes occur when PEs are in their high 20's to 30's.




I assume your talking about forward PE's, which are practically useless around economic turning points. It's baffling why investors continue to put so much faith in forward earnings estimates of analysts. Just 6 months ago, S&P500 earnings growth was forecast at *10%+*.Latest figures show about a *-20%* decline.  



> World markets seem to have fallen more than the US markets where all the problems are coming from. People should just get over it, so what if the US slows down. The 97 asian financial crisis had a bigger impact to Australia and yet we were able to pull through.




Again the false expectation that global markets should move in sync. Of course we'll pull through, we always do. However, the 97 asian financial crisis is going to pale in comparison to the unwinding of the largest credit bubble in history and thus its effects will be much deeper and long lasting.


----------



## cordelia (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buffettology said:


> Absolutely the most important thing to me also.  I have a live feed to the floor on Wall Street which I usually try to watch also at least for the opening hour or so to get the feeling for the day.





how do you get live feed


----------



## kengaikl (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> When I read posts like this I get vision of a child with his hands over his ears  repeating "I can't hear you, I can't hear you", which is fine as long as you keep your hands over your ears. However sooner or later you have to take them away and face reality.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Time will tell....BHP, RIO, BNB, CBA, ANZ, forward PE's are still inline with expectations just to name a few. BNB infact has upgraded their profit guidence for the year. I donno why you say the forward PE's are practically useless. With Iron ore to remain tight this year its hard to imagine BHP of RIO to not meet expectations. Btw these companies that i have mentioned make up nearly 20%+ of the ASX200 and their forward earnings for this year and next are absolutely solid. Chinese GPD figures out yesterday show that the slow down in the US has yet to effect their economies and as long as they continue to grow is hard to see that the demand for our resources to drop.


----------



## Buffettology (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> Chinese GPD figures out yesterday show that the slow down in the US has yet to effect their economies and as long as they continue to grow is hard to see that the demand for our resources to drop.




Remember, this slowdown is JUST showing up in US figures now.  It will take time before it hits China.

Remember time lags are extremelly important and can make a MASSIVE difference to economic data.


----------



## Buffettology (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cordelia said:


> how do you get live feed




Cable TV.


----------



## Captain G (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just a quick question to all the wise & experiencved. I keep getting caught in these type of rally days thinking it's bottoming, but logic says there is not much to be positive about down the track. But, is a lot of this type of buying we're having and market uplift based on people buying in order to short the market?  What are peoples thoughts ?? Cheers


----------



## dhukka (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> I donno why you say the forward PE's are practically useless.




I didn't say they are practically useless. I said they are practically useless *around economic turning points*. Big difference. Hence analysts completely stuffed up 4Q07 US earnings forecasts because the US now finds itself at such an inflection point. Australia is not .....yet. 



> With Iron ore to remain tight this year its hard to imagine BHP of RIO to not meet expectations.




I agree, Australian company profits to June this year should reflect a strong Australian economy and strong demand for commodities. 



> Btw these companies that i have mentioned make up nearly 20%+ of the ASX200




20% of earnings, or 20% of market cap? Are you implying that this statistic is somehow a positive? 



> and their forward earnings for this year and next are absolutely solid.




Most analysts would be afraid to attach such certainty to forecasts  18 months out. This will be an interesting prediction to revisit in 18 months time. 



> Chinese GPD figures out yesterday show that the slow down in the US has yet to effect their economies




Of course it hasn't, there is always a lag. I wouldn't expect to see any discernible slowdown in Chinese growth until at least the second half of this calendar year. Even then, the slowdown will probably not be major. My views are predicated on a US recession that will be deeper and longer than 2001 or 1991-2.  



> and as long as they continue to grow is hard to see that the demand for our resources to drop.




Continue to grow at what rate? If they continue to grow at *11%*, sure I agree. How about *8%* or *6%*? The IMF recently cut its global growth forecasts, and that is predicated on no US recession.


----------



## MR. (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> Chinese GPD figures out yesterday show that the slow down in the US has yet to effect their economies




I like the "yet" but I would say that.

If I cry wolf long enough it will come. I do very little day trading and I'm not about to increase my volume. So what's left for me?


----------



## kengaikl (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You guys are absolutely right WE ARE DOOMED!!!!!!!


----------



## Real1ty (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A bit of a reversal developing on Asian markets.

Will be interesting to see if it continues and if it does, how hard it will hit us.


----------



## Bushman (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> You guys are absolutely right WE ARE DOOMED!!!!!!!




Oh no the bear pack claims another victim... sell into the rally now. Abandon hope all ye of the predominant faith. 

BHP, RIO and BNB are speculative buys at the most. 

PS: jaded bulls and bears are not very good with sarcasm.


----------



## MR. (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> You guys are absolutely right WE ARE DOOMED!!!!!!!




I hope you prove us wrong! 

Thanks for your posts.  Perhaps in a month or so the numbers here will be the other way round. ie Bulls/Bears 

Either way I'm not going to lose.


----------



## kengaikl (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

BHP really punched the bears right in the face today. Thats what you get for shorting fundamentally sound stocks. 

Long run the bulls always win.


----------



## josjes (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> No. I'm wrong if we break up through 6100. The higher this bounce goes the _less_ likely we'll see 4800 in the near term and _more_ likely we'll see 4800 as the larger wave pattern unfolds.



So far the zig-zag pattern you predict has been following the script, with the exception on the magnitude of the bounce. Do you still see 6100 as the magic number ? i.e if we break 6100 we will shoot up to bullish view, and if 6100 failed then we'll see 4800 sometime in the middle of the year ? 
Do you think you can update your EW analysis ? (which I think is one of the best )


----------



## IFocus (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So far going to script volume spike (sellers washed out), buying bounce (shorts getting squeezed?), price rising on falling volume (lack of selling pressure) and of course then the next step is.......


----------



## MR. (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> BHP really punched the bears right in the face today. Thats what you get for shorting fundamentally sound stocks.
> 
> Long run the bulls always win.




Sorry I must be misundertanding this post Kengaikl. 
Are you attempting to have ago at some of us?   

I also have _a vision of a child with his hands over his ears_ and a mouth that doesn't know when to shut up!


----------



## kengaikl (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> Sorry I must be misundertanding this post Kengaikl.
> Are you attempting to have ago at some of us?
> 
> I also have _a vision of a child with his hands over his ears_ and a mouth that doesn't know when to shut up!




Hay Mr i reckon BHP will punch the bears in the face again on monday. Its up around 8% in london rio's up 10%. These 2 stocks would probably push the index up 100 points on monday. Im only having ago at the at you because you dont look at the fundamental strengths of companies like RIO and BHP.


----------



## Nyden (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> Hay Mr i reckon BHP will punch the bears in the face again on monday. Its up around 8% in london rio's up 10%. These 2 stocks would probably push the index up 100 points on monday. Im only having ago at the at you because you dont look at the fundamental strengths of companies like RIO and BHP.




Hello Kengaikl,

I think the issue is - many are looking at the fundamentals, or rather; re-evaluating them.

That's the very problem right now; these 'solid' fundamentals are currently in question. The growth of commodity prices is in danger at the moment, if China slows down, if the US hits a recession; with growing costs for these companies ... can they maintain these prices if commodity prices do not grow / decrease in the coming months / years?

The commodity sector has run very hot in the last few years; perhaps many companies currently have prices that reflect the hopes / gamble that this run is going to continue, which it may / may not.


Can you imagine though, if things do deteriorate here badly though? Imagine every single average joe moving his /her super fund out of stocks, & into cash ... a mass of sellers, with very few buyers.


----------



## mayk (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Why are we discussing RIO/BHP in index?? Ahh is it because it accounts for 20% of XAO index. If that is the case then I will shut up

All depends on the USofA tonight regarding monday. Strong metal prices will see BHP in green, but again , after two-three days of consecutive rise some red days are also present. 

Eitherway I sold out of bhp today with a small profit. Small brokeage fees makes you do that. . 

On topic of XAO, I guess general sentiment is bullish again and the prime reason I suspect, is the Feb dividend and reporting season, which might be really good. 

The only worrying aspect, apart from US, is the local interest rate rise in coming days.


----------



## wayneL (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> Long run the bulls always win.




Another one of those useless platitudes, a cliche'.

Of course with qualifications, it's dead right and has mathematical underpinnings, but the qualifications are as important as petrol to a Porche.

For instance, I will guarantee you that each one of the the intelligent bears on this site is in reality a bull in the long run. In fact most bears are only bears so they can subsequently be bulls.

This is not a team sport and bears don't wear jumpers with numbers on them; it's a discussion board, so rational discussion will get you much further.

If you like BHP, fine, tell us all the reasons why it won't be affected by the approaching problems in the world economy.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How is BHP & RIO relevant to a thread on the XAO? My futures data is now up from the close today some 150 pts, possibly due to the fireworks about to happen Monday with the BHP attempted t/o of RIO, & the blocking stake by Chinalco and partner Alcoa.
If rationalisation in industries and companies paying absurd/irratioanal premiums to own other companies is a sign of a market top then this is it!



> Aluminium giant Alcoa has joined forces with China's state-owned Chinalco to take a £7bn, 12pc stake in Rio Tinto, throwing BHP Billiton's takeover plans for Rio into chaos.


----------



## kengaikl (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Another one of those useless platitudes, a cliche'.
> 
> Of course with qualifications, it's dead right and has mathematical underpinnings, but the qualifications are as important as petrol to a Porche.
> 
> ...




At current long term contract prices BHP is supplying iron ore to China at around $60. Spot price for iron ore is atleast 3 times the long term contract prices. So if BHP gets its way of increasing Iron ore prices by even 25-30% its earnings will definately be affected. If BHP's takeover of RIO is sucessful it will control around 40% of the worlds iron ore. By then it will have as much bargaining power as the middle east has over oil. Therefore in the long run i believe BHP will have the power to actually control prices of commodities. Which means a small slow down in the US if there is will have little or on impact of its earnings.

sorry i know this forum is only for discussing the XAO but 'cos it makes up nearly 10% of the index i feel it's justified.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> Chinese GPD figures out yesterday show that the slow down in the US has yet to effect their economies and as long as they continue to grow is hard to see that the demand for our resources to drop.




"as long as they continue to grow"....yes, that's the problem now?...... 1 month doesn't make a trend but......



> Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, cooled in January as growth in shipments overseas slowed.
> The Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 53 from 55.3 in December, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics said today in an e-mailed statement. A CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets PMI index slipped to 53.2 from 53.3.
> Exports grew at the slowest pace since 2002 in the fourth quarter, indicating that recent yuan gains, the cooling global expansion and cuts to some export-tax incentives are biting.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> If BHP's takeover of RIO is sucessful it will control around 40% of the worlds iron ore.




I can hear Homer Simpson now.....Doh!!!!!!
Or Colonel Klink.......Chinalco!!!!!


----------



## Real1ty (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> BHP really punched the bears right in the face today. Thats what you get for shorting fundamentally sound stocks.
> 
> *Long run the bulls always win.*




Does this also apply to Japanese bulls....


----------



## Nyden (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Speaking of BHP/Rio, I don't understand as to why both are going up so high?

Isn't the fact that a stake has been taken up in Rio, make it more likely BHP will fail on the bid, or end up overpaying?

It is just me, or is our entire market just one big speculation at the moment? Too many questions, too few answers. & Unfortunately for us cash holders, this time doesn't seem to be much different... sigh, stellar recovery here we come :


----------



## Kauri (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Aluminium giant Alcoa has joined forces with China's state-owned Chinalco to take a £7bn, 12pc stake in Rio Tinto, throwing BHP Billiton's takeover plans for Rio into chaos.




  Just an idle thought... a bit of leverage to pry out the ali assets that would be in BHP's stable if/when the T/O materialises???   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A Nice peice of news to trade... if you had it at _hand_   and if you go in for that sort of thing of course..


Lindsay Tanner"s announcement that Australia will halve the tax on foreign investments in locally managed funds from July 1 ...The tax change may attract as much as A$13bn a year...   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## cordelia (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Another one of those useless platitudes, a cliche'.
> 
> 
> For instance, I will guarantee you that each one of the the intelligent bears on this site is in reality a bull in the long run. In fact most bears are only bears so they can subsequently be bulls.
> ...




You make a good point...

sometimes I am a bear in the morning and a bull in the afternoon and vice versa.
I run with the hares and hunt with the hounds whichever suits me....

you can't be one thing all the time.....you need to be flexible imo   

back on topic:.....I think that BHP has come up in this thread because it seems to be aligned to the xao. I am cautious about getting back into market for longer thn a day because it is too volatile and I don't have the nerves or know how to deal with it. I think the time to get back into the market was last week and I am sure those who did have done some profit taking...Volume didn't look too great today.


----------



## mayk (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Speaking of BHP/Rio, I don't understand as to why both are going up so high?




A couple of speculations:

1: Maybe it is wish full thinking that bhp will walk away or will not sweeten up its bid for rio.
2: Someone is playing up with BHP shares, so that it is around $40 mark, just for merger ?
3: People are trying to use inverse logic they are equating  1 RIO =3.5 BHP, in the hope that it will materalize. So, as RIO goes up so does BHP.
4: People just like BHP so much and are head over heels in love with it.

In fact BHP was punished quite severely during the correction 'mini-crash' and it is just returning to its upward trend.


On a side note: Isn't it, a sign of a bull market, when companies are trying to buy each other etc? Seems to be the case in BHP/RIO and MSFT/YHOO case. So this might put another tick for those who are in the badwagon of bull market.


----------



## vishalt (1 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Monday is going to be absolute fire. 4%+ and that's just conservative imo. 

The price the British listed BHP is at, our BHP should be at around $44 to match.

I love it how everything happens in these markets at once, like all in the one week: 

1) Vale in talks with Xstrata
2) Alcoa + China snap up Rio Tinto
3) Microsoft for Yahoo
4) Credit Agricole "exploring" SocGen


----------



## bvbfan (2 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

BHP 11%
RIO 3%

banks
CBA 6%
NAB 5%
WBC 4%


add in the other banks and the resource companies won't be able to hold the ASX200 up without the banks also rallying.

While I like resources, banks/financials are in trouble I feel.


----------



## Random Walk (2 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Speaking of BHP/Rio, I don't understand as to why both are going up so high?
> 
> Isn't the fact that a stake has been taken up in Rio, make it more likely BHP will fail on the bid, or end up overpaying?




Exactly!  If the bid is more likely to fail, BHP’s share price might rise given that the share price of the bidder seems to fall in most takeover bids.  (Similar to the share price action for another example close to our hearts;  ZFX’s takeover bid for Allegiance.)

How much of the rally we're seeing is due to BHP/RIO?  If their share prices fall back on their large gains (e.g. maybe b/c BHP announces a higher bid), will the fall on the XAO spook investors and create panic selling?


----------



## wavepicker (2 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Seems to me there is a good chance of clear run till mid March. 

Cycle point low (red 5) was confirmed witht he higher low on Thurday. The next rotation, which will be a cycle point high (red 6) is not due till mid March which tells me we might have an upward bias till aproximately mid March.

This means we should get 3 smaller cycle points highs in a row (blue 9,11,13)
which in EW is 5 waves (3 highs in a row) to complete red cycle point 6. So i am looking for these 3 blue cycle highs in a row between now and mid march to complete assuming what I am saying is actually valid.

All numbers are points in TIME, they do not represent price levels, take no notice were they have been placed relative the y axis scale

Cheers


----------



## MR. (2 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> Hay Mr i reckon BHP will punch the bears in the face again on monday. Its up around 8% in london rio's up 10%. These 2 stocks would probably push the index up 100 points on monday. *Im only having ago at the at you because you dont look at the fundamental strengths of companies like RIO and BHP*.




I must be feeling mighty punch drunk now, and this is going to keep the XAO from turning?.... What are we talking about here.... I don't care if it went up or down on one or two days!!!   good volume of responces though! 

Well I don't look at charts if thats what you are referring!   Put it this way, when Company Directors send me charts I run to the hills and that has put the final nails in two iron ore coffins for me.... I am MR. Fundamental.

As for your RIO and BHP both great companies (nearly bought both recently)and perhaps still with great prospects. What I think you have missed here is at what price? I think you are a year too late! What you are quoting is yesterday's hyp. 

So back to the topic. XAO. A group of people are by far smarter than just one. (meaning me)  This is why I am here. I question myself all the time! And I question to myself, others postings to try and see their angle if any. There are far smarter people here than me. There is nothing really left for me here at the moment. As I said day trading (or weekly) is not something I want to get further into. I think there's enough already doing this.

My Analysis: The XAO is finally turning with the rest of the world.
Good Luck....


----------



## Nyden (2 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is anyone holding any shorts? Going to be a painful day on Monday for shorties.

Can it be 'healthy' to be recovering this fast? It seems way too erratic, at this rate; we'll be at 7000 in a month or 2 

When you look at past crashes, (this was obviously a mini crash, but still) it takes months / years to recover back to the highs.

I myself am even feeling the greed / desire to 'panic buy' as to not miss the mass of gains that may be coming, but where are we headed? How can a zig-zag be healthy? :

If we can drop hard on something solid, how can we rise on nothing but sentiment? Surely the problems haven't just up & vanished ... Is this a market based on nothing but hot air? 



Perhaps this is what is to become the norm of crashes, what with almost every Australian having online access ... fast selling, fast buying. I'm sure the % of internet users has vastly increased since even just our more recent crash, could this be a factor? And if that's the case, gone are the days of buy/hold/never sell ... nothing will ever be valued on fundamentals as everything becomes 'hot', markets will just be a big ol' casino!


----------



## kengaikl (2 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Random Walk said:


> Exactly!  If the bid is more likely to fail, BHP’s share price might rise given that the share price of the bidder seems to fall in most takeover bids.  (Similar to the share price action for another example close to our hearts;  ZFX’s takeover bid for Allegiance.)
> 
> How much of the rally we're seeing is due to BHP/RIO?  If their share prices fall back on their large gains (e.g. maybe b/c BHP announces a higher bid), will the fall on the XAO spook investors and create panic selling?




BHP and RIO are basically the same business just that BHP is larger and is cheaper interms of PE's. So if there is interest in RIO shares logically there will also be interest in BHP shares, especially if BHP are trading at a lower PE that RIO.


----------



## cordelia (2 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Perhaps this is what is to become the norm of crashes, what with almost every Australian having online access ... fast selling, fast buying. I'm sure the % of internet users has vastly increased since even just our more recent crash, could this be a factor? And if that's the case, gone are the days of buy/hold/never sell ... nothing will ever be valued on fundamentals as everything becomes 'hot', markets will just be a big ol' casino!




Nyden...You have raised an interesting point..i believe the internet has made a difference to the way things play out.....certainly some people know about events before the news reports them. However I don't think it can be attributed to the Internet alone...its communication in general..cable TV etc etc.

There's a lot of avenues for those who wish to find out information ahead of the pack. Take this forum for example....I have learnt so much by reading the excellent posts here that reading the newspaper or watching the news has become a bit of a waste of time...

How much research you do is a matter of choice. Technology has empowered those willing to take responsibility for their own finances (amongst other things) but not everyone chooses to embrace it. It might surprise you to learn how many people have very little knowledge of current technology. ...particularly the Internet....and still rely on mainstream media for info.

 I wouldn't have thought  *all* Australians who trade shares belong to this forum....or do so online. Be interesting to find out.

It stands to reason that those who have access to news ahead of others  react sooner than those who are still dependent on newspapers and the six o'clock news to keep them informed....Today different groups of people find out things at different stages. A crash seems to be a more drawn out event...

It maybe that in previous crashes the *majority* of people (not all) were reliant on mainstream media to find out what was going on.....Information was not as readily available as it is now to the general public.....Hence the majority found out pretty much at the same time and the reactions swifter.....

We live in a different world.


----------



## MR. (2 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"Everything" happens quicker.....

How is it that so many people in the past are caught by a market crash and recession?  Something to think about. 

I came through 87 and later paid 16% on my house and 19% interest on my factory. 
Seeya.....


----------



## nikki (2 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

wavepicker,

can i ask whether elliot wave theories predict the same outcomes whether you have entered into a bear market (not that i have a clue what that means). . . . also, would not your plotting these days have to sit on top of what you migth see in the DJIA (whether we like it or not) . . . . . .

thanks for posting your chart . . . . . .


----------



## motorway (2 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Try this one
> 
> visualize what the demand and supply curves are doing
> 
> ...






> Remember the seasons of the market unfold in their own time
> Each season sows the seeds of the next
> 
> Winter is the beginning
> ...




Just Update those charts
B% moved up from that low of 6.6% to 28%

The P&F displays the shape of a  classic market cycle
Those Seasons --->Winter through Summer to Winter

( S curve following a Minsky pattern ?)

But There has been a real shift in Demand supply reality
So I do not expect that any deep retracement of the entire cycle is warranted ( China is real etc )... But that does not mean that the next cycle will be as spectacular as this ( at the level of the XAO as an index)..

Maybe more ranging and creeping like the cycle previously
(ther will  still be a summer though ) but that depends 

A little window on how adaptive and sensitive P&F is
The B% will be very fast in reflecting support ( buying pressure ) and resistance ( selling pressure )

At 6.6% a Market is broken or very very oversold ( remember the shortest day comes early at the beginning of winter)
Now the B% will adapt very quickly
and help reveal  market structure... ( possibly a narrowing of activity as demand and supply lines converge a little more )


motorway


----------



## Whiskers (2 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From last week:


Whiskers said:


> On the weekly although the tail went below 100% the weekly candle finished above the 78.6%, so I not going bearish yet.
> 
> 
> I'm not expecting much retracement in the next week, ie I will be very surprised if it goes below 5,700.  I expect the market to trend in the post Aug 07 low SDC and push up beyond the post Oct high SDC in the coming weeks... just to disprove a down trend and confirm consolidation or continuing slower Bull run.




Having a bit of a longer term look on the weekly chart this time, still pretty much going to plan. Importantly, only the tail dipped below 5,700, and I see the usual indicators tending positive for the near future.

People have made some resemblences to the last Aug correction and 1987 crash. My view is that mid 06 is probably a better comparison.

Just for illustration purposes I see the XAO trending something similar to mid 2006 for the next few months, ie we have found bottom and will tend fairly flat around the long term trend line (yellow) for a few weeks until we establish where to go from there, which I am still inclined to think slightly bullish.

Next week I might reveal my notion of proportion in the context of why a fibonacci retracement of the same percentage to 1987 is not applicable.

Interesting concept you use motorway. I vaguely understand the technology, but I think I get the philosophy behind it. I think my notion of 'proportion' is roughly about the same thing.


----------



## willow (4 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This folds up the series of charts I've posted since the 15th Dec 07 on this thread. The chart below was posted on the 24th dec p95 and is now updated showing the warning it suggested was indeed worth taking notice of. It is one of the charts I used to give me cautious confidence to go in heavily on the pullback of the recent head and shoulders neckline on the daily chart. p94+96.

The arrows on the rate of change indicator are at the extreme oversold level and are all over 3 years away from any previous extreme reading. The vertical bars on the XAO are in conjuntion with these arrows. 

These events occured while the XAO was trending up and gave a clear sign of loss of momentum in the trend. In all cases apart from one, the low on the XAO where the extreme readings occured was eventually breached. The only period where it didn't happen was the 97, 98 period where a double bottom of the weekly close occured instead. 

I want to thank this forum for giving me the opportunity to post these charts. It has truly been an adventure and a highlight in my trading career. To be involved in a fall of such magnitude can only make one grateful. I would like to add for the people who need it, that once you find a method you are comfortable with and have tested it then be patient (wait for the best opportunities, etc), cautious (go in small until you build up your experience and your account, etc), and finally, to learn to take the hard times gracefully, it is easier and quicker to learn from them when you aren't cursing over them or putting yourself down and believe me it is learning from these hard times that plays a major part in helping to make us successful traders. We have paid a fortune for these lessons so make the most of them.

A famous trader once said "it takes a great deal of boldness and a great deal of caution to make a great deal of money in the stockmarket" Cheers. Willow


----------



## Whiskers (4 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



willow said:


> This folds up the series of charts I've posted since the 15th Dec 07 on this thread.
> 
> I want to thank this forum for giving me the opportunity to post these charts. It has truly been an adventure and a highlight in my trading career. Cheers. Willow




You're not leaving us are you willow?


----------



## treefrog (4 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

closest (but not quite yet) to a cross since the last one - way back in june 2003


----------



## Sean K (4 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> closest (but not quite yet) to a cross since the last one - way back in june 2003



Need a semilog chart for that timeframe I think frog. I imagine we might still be above. To be confirmed by a greatpig chart.


----------



## treefrog (4 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

nice bear run on the XJO this arvo - looking likely to close the day in the red
financials appear to be doing most of the damage


----------



## powerkoala (4 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

here come the roller coaster....
up 180 points.. down 180 points....
end up 39 points....
this market really drives me mad 
tomorrow will be down... 200 points... 
then up 200 points and end up down 39 points..


----------



## kash (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Should be a down day today with the rates decision due and amer. down. Probably will drop fast but with BHP/RIO T/O maybe becoming formal tomorrow and BHP half yearly report due should finish only slightly down as people wait to see what happening.


----------



## GreatPig (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> To be confirmed by a greatpig chart



17 & 34 weekly?

This is what I have: just crossed (blue and green lines). Last cross, in opposite direction, was around June/July 2003.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Logique (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The XAO is still in "death cross" where the 50 EMA has crossed below 200 EMA, which is a bearish sign. I can post up a chart if the mods want, but its easily checked by traders.


----------



## austek (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I Like the simplicity of 'big pig' chart and the "log" method using longer time frame averages to show the severity of the market as of now.

Does this mean what I think it means, a beeaarrr market for the coming years or just a volatile hiccup over a few months.


----------



## austek (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I could have added my own thoughts in that we sit out or short term trade the volatility until it becomes clearer that the 50e may close below the 200e.

Then we start to look like the stagnant period in the nineties


----------



## cordelia (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



willow said:


> I want to thank this forum for giving me the opportunity to post these charts. It has truly been an adventure and a highlight in my trading career.
> A famous trader once said "it takes a great deal of boldness and a great deal of caution to make a great deal of money in the stockmarket" Cheers. Willow




Thanks very much for posting the chart together with such an excellent explaination. I am new to charting and most of the time don't really understand all the terminology so its really helpful when someone makes an effort to clarify what it all means so that the less knowledgeable can grasp it too. I am sure I am not the only one to appreciate the extra effort it takes to do this.

thanks Willow


----------



## nikki (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

could someone help me understand what the significance of the crossover is between the EMA's.......

does it reveal more in terms of whether we are bearish, etc. . ... . . . . .

thanks for your charts.


----------



## treefrog (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nikki said:


> could someone help me understand what the significance of the crossover is between the EMA's.......
> 
> does it reveal more in terms of whether we are bearish, etc. . ... . . . . .
> 
> thanks for your charts.




mostly depends on what your trading period is nikki - the two mentioned when applied to weekly charts are used by some to indicate a reversal of sentiment - but they can also be used on the day charts and they would be much quicker and cross more often - five times quicker roughly speaking

whole thing depends how you have decided to trade/invest and what gives you exit and entry signals


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> whole thing depends how you have decided to trade/invest and what gives you exit and entry signals




I am yet to see a trading system that works with MA cross overs.

Has any one??

They are big time lagging signals. Surely you don't need a MA cross to know that we have been in a nasty market.


----------



## treefrog (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I am yet to see a trading system that works with MA cross overs.
> 
> Has any one??
> 
> They are big time lagging signals. Surely you don't need a MA cross to know that we have been in a nasty market.




agree TH agree - far too much behind the action but........., keep hearing that some of the funds like them


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> keep hearing that some of the funds like them




Yeah? could you imagine the investor presentation.

"Yes we think we can invest your 200 million and beat the market, we have a great system. Its call a MA cross over."

They would roll out the door laughing.


----------



## insider (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> 17 & 34 weekly?
> 
> This is what I have: just crossed (blue and green lines). Last cross, in opposite direction, was around June/July 2003.
> 
> ...




Hey guys I need clarification... What is the EMA 17 and the EMA 34?  What is the difference between the two?


----------



## treefrog (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



insider said:


> Hey guys I need clarification... What is the EMA 17 and the EMA 34?  What is the difference between the two?




from commsec's tech analysis info:

An indicator is a mathematical calculation that can be applied to a security's pricing data, volume data, or a combination of both.  The result is a value that is used to anticipate future changes in price. A moving average fits this definition of an indicator. Moving averages are examples of trend following, or "lagging," indicators. These indicators are superb when prices move in relatively long trends. They don't warn you of upcoming changes in prices, they simply tell you what prices are doing (i.e. rising or falling) so that you can invest accordingly.   

Simple Moving Average
The Simple Moving Average is calculated by adding the closing prices for the most recent n intervals of time (or "bars") and then dividing by n. For example, a 21-bar moving average references the closing price of a security over the past 21 bars. The indicator sums all 21 closing prices and divides by 21, which produces the average price over the past 21 bars. The Simple Moving Average gives equal weight to each bar.

Exponential Moving Average
Some market technicians believe that more weight should be attributed to more recent price action. These analysts may prefer to use the Exponential Moving Average because it does just this.  An exponential (or exponentially weighted) moving average is calculated by applying a percentage of today's closing price to yesterday's moving average value. 

For example, to calculate a 9% exponential moving average of a company, first, we would take today's closing price and multiply it by 9%.  We would then add this product to the value of yesterday's moving average multiplied by 91% (100% - 9% = 91%). 

The only significant difference between the various types of moving averages is the weight assigned to the most recent data.  Once this "weighting" scheme has been determined, it is held static over the range of calculations


----------



## insider (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> from commsec's tech analysis info:
> 
> An indicator is a mathematical calculation that can be applied to a security's pricing data, volume data, or a combination of both.  The result is a value that is used to anticipate future changes in price. A moving average fits this definition of an indicator. Moving averages are examples of trend following, or "lagging," indicators. These indicators are superb when prices move in relatively long trends. They don't warn you of upcoming changes in prices, they simply tell you what prices are doing (i.e. rising or falling) so that you can invest accordingly.
> 
> ...




Cheers TF... thanks for clarifying this for me... I hope the recent findings paint a clearer picture of where the market is heading 4 all...


----------



## korrupt_1 (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I am yet to see a trading system that works with MA cross overs.
> 
> Has any one??
> 
> They are big time lagging signals. Surely you don't need a MA cross to know that we have been in a nasty market.




I mainly use the MA to confirm a trend so I can scalp some points... generally i use 10WMA crossing either 240WMA or 480WMA depending on the scale I use (5 minutes to 1 second)... Success is about 70% or so for around 10 points... but not all cross overs are tradable... things I look out for are slope of the 240WMA, Bollinger Bands, MACD and RSI... 

A good scalp could yield me 50+ points, but on average, I aim for just 10 points.

Attached chart was of today's action. 5 minute scale with multiple MA. The white arrows indicated breakouts of prices from the MA "rainbow" - technically I should have waited for the cross-over, but I usually pre-empt and go in first - as it's clear that MA Crossovers are laggy.

From 10am to 4pm, there were 2 good scalps and 1 that was questionable... 

I think this is loosely based around the GMMA method.

Stop losses of about 10 points is a must with a 1:1 risk/reward ratio is acceptable for scalping (for my style of tradign anyway). The aim is to win more than loose.


----------



## treefrog (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> I mainly use the MA to confirm a trend so I can scalp some points... generally i use 10WMA crossing either 240WMA or 480WMA depending on the scale I use (5 minutes to 1 second)... Success is about 70% or so for around 10 points... but not all cross overs are tradable... things I look out for are slope of the 240WMA, Bollinger Bands, MACD and RSI...
> 
> A good scalp could yield me 50+ points, but on average, I aim for just 10 points.
> 
> ...




hi korrupt one:

but while this system "works" it appears that is only so because you are trading before the cross - if you wait for the actual cross the move is pretty much over which confirms TH's point that ma systems lag too much to work


----------



## Nick Radge (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> I am yet to see a trading system that works with MA cross overs.
> 
> Has any one??




TH,
Apparently (not apparently, actually) some Macquarie advisor's were on the sales route last year flogging a MA crossover system...a 22 week and 35 week system. Nothing else. No position sizing. No stops. No nothing. 22 week over, buy. 22 week under, sell. Best thing since sliced bread. Easy money.

Needless to say that its been spanked for about 6-months now and their client who employed me to run it for them has thrown in the towel.

Easy money or easy commissions?


----------



## nomore4s (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> TH,
> Apparently (not apparently, actually) some Macquarie advisor's were on the sales route last year flogging a MA crossover system...a 22 week and 35 week system. Nothing else. No position sizing. No stops. No nothing. 22 week over, buy. 22 week under, sell. Best thing since sliced bread. Easy money.
> 
> Needless to say that its been spanked for about 6-months now and their client who employed me to run it for them has thrown in the towel.
> ...




Surely you're kidding, how could you sell something like that with a clear conscience?
Fair enough selling a crossover system (not that I'd use one) but without some sort of money mangement is pretty poor.


----------



## wayneL (5 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> TH,
> Apparently (not apparently, actually) some Macquarie advisor's were on the sales route last year flogging a MA crossover system...a 22 week and 35 week system. Nothing else. No position sizing. No stops. No nothing. 22 week over, buy. 22 week under, sell. Best thing since sliced bread. Easy money.
> 
> Needless to say that its been spanked for about 6-months now and their client who employed me to run it for them has thrown in the towel.
> ...



It's easy to see how a lot of folks in instos can end up with a pretty poor view of technical analysis.


----------



## Kauri (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

not too promising one would think...

ISM Non-Manufacturing tumbles to 41.9 Versus 54.4  
* VERSUS 53.0 EXPECTED*.


----------



## dhukka (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> not too promising one would think...
> 
> ISM Non-Manufacturing tumbles to 41.9 Versus 54.4
> * VERSUS 53.0 EXPECTED*.




That's a really nasty number. Below 50 means contraction, but a reading below about 44 is recessionary. 

But don't worry, China has a lot of people, they all want flat screen TV's, they need our resources, they are immune from global forces, China China China, could we get a China smiley Joe?


----------



## numbercruncher (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Go China - Go China - Yeah - Yeah - Yeah

Were all freakin doomed @

Hang on, weve got India and Russia too  

Thats one serious tumble on the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index


----------



## wayneL (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> could we get a China smiley Joe?


----------



## korrupt_1 (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Don't worry... the PPT will come and save the day....


----------



## Kauri (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> That's a really nasty number. Below 50 means contraction, but a reading below about 44 is recessionary.




They must have hoped that by slipping it out 65 mins early no-one would notice it   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> That's a really nasty number. Below 50 means contraction, but a reading below about 44 is recessionary.




 Something else to mull over on a quiet night..
Regressing quarterly ISM Non-Manufacturing over GDP growth gives a 
72.8% correlation since the series began in 1997.  Should the current reading 
stick for the next two months, GDP growth should fall by 1.0% in the first 
quarter.

 MMMmmm
..........Kauri


----------



## dhukka (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Stop it you guys, you're all a bunch of recessionista pessimistas. 

Reality is no fun, everyone close your eyes and repeat after me, China! China! China!


----------



## Kauri (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Stop it you guys, you're all a bunch of recessionista pessimistas.




It's not all bad news...

 *US bond yields* have continued to fall, with fresh lows on the ten-yr bond currently being traded at 3.537% as the market prices in a 90% chance of a total 75 bp in rate cuts for the March and April meetings.  

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Buffettology (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Damn, we are in for an interesting Wednesday!  Im sure there were a lot of people taking short positions the last couple days!  Sure to make a packet!


----------



## Nick Radge (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*







*BOTTOM LINE 
4/2 :*
EW Trend: Corrective   
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: n/a


*TECHNICAL DISCUSSION* 
*4/2:*
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 27 secs)
*LAYMANS: *The bears have offered conciliatory gestures to the bulls over the last week or so but its more than likely that they'll wrestle back control and drive prices lower, most likely taking out the major lows recorded on Jan 22nd and 23rd. I have said constantly that bear market rallies are confusing and nasty for traders, new and old. What we've just witnessed is a classic example. Short. Sharp. Powerful. Enough to make you stop and think that, yes, just maybe, the bull is back. The important level we've been watching was 6105. Above that suggests the bear trend moves back to a more neutral state. We tried hard today, so very hard, to take it on but today instead was a day of rejection and bear control. The close was at the lows of the session and there can only be one answer for that activity - sellers. The good news, if I can suggest such, is that this sharp advance has taken the 'sting' out of the market, at least for the near term. Its probable that the expected declines now should just nudge the January lows by a small margin only. Summary - expect weakness over the coming weeks back to 5200 or a tad lower. We should then bounce before embarking on another round of selling which will take us through to the 4800 level.

*TECHNICAL:* The pattern off the January lows extends up in a perfect a-b-c correction and todays weak close basically suggests the advance has completed at todays highs. We're either at a wave-iv or larger degree wave-A level and that weakness should set in almost immediately. The depth of this wave-iv has been extreme and this usually means wave-v will be stifled. As such I'm looking for the 5200 lows to be tested and perhaps breached, but only just. This next thrust down will complete the wave-v and also the larger degree wave-3. The wave-4 bounce could be a long winded affair taking several months before another nasty wave-5 takes hold and drives prices down to 4800. The Reserve Bank meets tomorrow ans its widely expected that rates will rise. This is fully priced into the market. What we need to listen out for is the rhetoric coming from the Bank. If they offer the slightest hint that rates have gone high enough then we'll see some strength and confidence return. However, its starting to be expected that another rate rise will be on its way. If the RBA mentions this then we'll be back at 5200 very quickly indeed.  

*TRADING STRATEGY 
4/2:*
An aggressive trader could short this market right here but quite frankly the volatility is just too extreme for many accounts to handle. Possibly the better alternative is to sell call spreads above the market for the February and/or March expiry. High volatility and time decay will see these spreads drop quickly if the markets start to quieten down. Any move above 6105 would be reason to reverse the short spreads and stand aside until the pattern returns. The holding of any long stock positions should be managed aggressively and stops tightened up accordingly.  


_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

_


----------



## tex.willer (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Stating the obvious, looks like the cat tried to bounce and was smashed off the ground again.


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> It's not all bad news...
> 
> *US bond yields* have continued to fall, with fresh lows on the ten-yr bond currently being traded at 3.537% as the market prices in a 90% chance of a total 75 bp in rate cuts for the March and April meetings.
> 
> ...




Maybe courtesy of Big Bank derivative gamblers piling into the monstrous smoking kitty with what's left of their dwindling asset cover....?? I really don't want to be around if/when that smouldering derivatives pot goes up in theirs (and our's) faces.

Looks like the Fed might have to ride rates all the way to 0% within 3 months, at this rate of economic collapse in the US. What can they do then???


AJ


----------



## Santob (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> Maybe courtesy of Big Bank derivative gamblers piling into the monstrous smoking kitty with what's left of their dwindling asset cover....?? I really don't want to be around if/when that smouldering derivatives pot goes up in theirs (and our's) faces.
> 
> Looks like the Fed might have to ride rates all the way to 0% within 3 months, at this rate of economic collapse in the US. What can they do then???
> 
> ...




Negative Interest rates?? j/k. This'd be akin to the government giving away money, or printing it...hang on a second....


----------



## tex.willer (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

True, the bond yields have dropped.

The biggest market, Forex, disagrees that the Fed will drop the rates. The dollar index was up on yesterday and steady during the trading session. The gold price dropped as well.


----------



## Kauri (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> True, the bond yields have dropped.
> 
> The biggest market, Forex, disagrees that the Fed will drop the rates. The dollar index was up on yesterday and steady during the trading session. The gold price dropped as well.





 flight to safety.. especially in bad times..
also for what it is worth a lot of punters see the US now being pro-active in their attempts to get things sorted economically, whilst the Eurozone is seen to be in denial and acting re-actively and slowly.. the spin is that the US will then come out of it earlier and more robustley...
 by the way.. a few Eurozone financial institutions that have had Ninja turtle eggs quietly incubating in their cellars are now noticing that they are starting to hatch... Kowabunga dude... RBS???
cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Nyden (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hammering in the US, BHP profits a hint off some estimates, & increasing bid, base metals took a beating ... perhaps a wave of panic selling then? :


----------



## tex.willer (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

panic selling = continuing Deleverage


----------



## numbercruncher (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Somethings not quite right in the world when Politicians are talking pay cuts for themselves ! 



> Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard says a suggestion by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd that politicians might take a pay cut to set an example for the country is a serious one.




http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/06/2155396.htm?section=justin


----------



## Sean K (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> Somethings not quite right in the world when Politicians are talking pay cuts for themselves !
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/06/2155396.htm?section=justin



Hooly dooly!!! Wayne's Four Horseman arriveth.........


----------



## Bushman (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> Somethings not quite right in the world when Politicians are talking pay cuts for themselves !
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/06/2155396.htm?section=justin




It is called Labour's 'War on Inflation'. Razor gangs are currently scouring the country, slashing and burning to curb the great evil. 

Would have thought a 'GLOBAL RECESSION' would take care of inflationary pressures in the Australian economy. But go for it Kevin and Julia - lead heroically by example. Heck I might go to the boss today and ask for a bit less myself. For King & Country.


----------



## wayneL (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Hooly dooly!!! Wayne's Four Horseman arriveth.........




Good God! What next? The 144,000 in white robes? Seven angels with seven plagues?


----------



## numbercruncher (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Good God! What next? The 144,000 in white robes? Seven angels with seven plagues?





Oh man ... 




> Americans have long taken the wonders of medical science for granted, watching as disease after disease has been conquered with antibiotics, vaccines, better nutrition and pharmaceutical "miracle drugs." But today, the magic isn't working ? and something scary is happening.




http://worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=45860


----------



## numbercruncher (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> BHP really punched the bears right in the face today. Thats what you get for shorting fundamentally sound stocks.
> 
> Long run the bulls always win.




Perfect day for you to increase your holdings then Ken


----------



## Kauri (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Swan says that the high AUD is subject to market influences, one of which is the tighter monetary policy espoused by the RBA. The RBA hiked its official cash rate 25 bp yesterday to 7.0%. Rudd noted yesterday that the latest rate hike will really hurt _*(the economy).*  Sheesh Kev.. the average punter will appreciate that as they turn their pockets inside out..._
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## tex.willer (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Unfortunately for Labor, they got elected in the middle of a global market tubulence.

The average person will be unable to distinguish that it's world forces operating at the moment.


----------



## Nyden (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone else think we'll be down 200pts+ by the close today? Might get a lot of folks closing their positions ... futures aren't exactly inspiring for a global rally.

Then again, if history repeats over the last few weeks; we're due for a rally Thurs/Fri ... I don't have the stomach for it though.  Is it a case of today's bargains are tomorrow's forecasts? Or are bargains just bargains?

Edit; Of course, just wild crazy speculation!
Alright; some analysis! Does seem to be on an intraday downtrend :


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Anyone else think we'll be down 200pts+ by the close today? Might get a lot of folks closing their positions ... futures aren't exactly inspiring for a global rally.
> 
> Then again, if history repeats over the last few weeks; we're due for a rally Thurs/Fri ... I don't have the stomach for it though.  Is it a case of today's bargains are tomorrow's forecasts? Or are bargains just bargains?
> 
> ...




The Lil' Ozzy Bleeder just slit the other wrist..... lookit all that scarlet.....

*sigh*

PS: Mebbe touch down at 5000pts this dive-time?


----------



## tex.willer (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not trying to be a pessimist... I would love to read the opinion of the experienced forum chartists/traders.

It seems pretty obvious that last year the market was way ahead of itself.

Your thoughts appreciated.


----------



## treefrog (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> Not trying to be a pessimist... I would love to read the opinion of the experienced forum chartists/traders.
> 
> It seems pretty obvious that last year the market was way ahead of itself.
> 
> Your thoughts appreciated.




just can't help liking 4760 on your monthly or the weekly or the daily - its the 50% retrace of that stella bull run and some nice support there tex


----------



## nomore4s (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not a fundie but with WOW & now BHP reporting rather poor results, is the writing on the wall that we won't be saved by reporting season?

Alot of the bulls have been saying we will be shielded from a downturn in the USA by demand from China/India and our economy won't be affected as much etc etc. But if companies like BHPs net profit is already starting to drop, the upside is looking alot more limited than the downside atm, especially if we get any sort of slow down in China.

The banks are the ones I'll be watching with interest if profits aren't to expectations the next 6-12 months could be very very interesting considering the amount of time the flow on from the problems overseas will take to filter through to us here in Oz.


----------



## Buffettology (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Not a fundie but with WOW & now BHP reporting rather poor results, is the writing on the wall that we won't be saved by reporting season?
> 
> Alot of the bulls have been saying we will be shielded from a downturn in the USA by demand from China/India and our economy won't be affected as much etc etc. But if companies like BHPs net profit is already starting to drop, the upside is looking alot more limited than the downside atm, especially if we get any sort of slow down in China.
> 
> The banks are the ones I'll be watching with interest if profits aren't to expectations the next 6-12 months could be very very interesting considering the amount of time the flow on from the problems overseas will take to filter through to us here in Oz.




Pretty much the discussion in the BHP thread.

It appears the writing is on the wall.

I thought there would be a good chance reporting season would pull us out, but it appears the last hope is gone!

Looking at your thread and seeing your picture out of my peripheral vision, I thought it was a nuclear bomb mushroom cloud!  Appropriate, but a bear causes just as much damage!


----------



## tex.willer (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If you analyse the BHP reports 6 months ago and now, you'd notice that Nickel was an important part in it's earnings.

Nickel price has come off probably 10000$ per tone in the meantime.

I will leave the conclusion to you guys.

Taking the metal prices the past few months, I simply could not justify in my own mind BHP at close to $48, China or no China.


----------



## numbercruncher (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It can only get worse ...

Why is everyone so convinced with China ?

Average Chinaman earns 2pc of average American. They say 3 cents out of every 1 dollar Americans spend on Chinese goods actually makes it back to China.

They are not going to plug the short fall of a Recessionary US, they have their own asset bubbles, Internal Debt and Inflation problems etc.

Too many are maxed out on Debt, the ultimate fundamental.

Decoupling doesnt exist, it might oneday, but not till after a big downturn and reshuffle.

Companies are still priced on old Growth.

I cant see any good/growth news, can any of you ?

Thought I might add, My house is already full to the brim with cheap Chinese Junk, is yours too ? I bet the average American already has his fair share of Cheap goodies too, maybe we really are already saturated with cheap toys to boot, reducing demand going forward ?


----------



## Whiskers (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From last weekend.


Whiskers said:


> Having a bit of a longer term look on the weekly chart this time, still pretty much going to plan. Importantly, only the tail dipped below 5,700, and I see the usual indicators tending positive for the near future.
> 
> People have made some resemblences to the last Aug correction and 1987 crash. My view is that mid 06 is probably a better comparison.
> 
> Just for illustration purposes I see the XAO trending something similar to mid 2006 for the next few months, ie we have found bottom and will tend fairly flat around the long term trend line (yellow) for a few weeks until we establish where to go from there, which I am still inclined to think slightly bullish.




Keep your shirts on people! It's gonna be all right. 

Vertical line is roughly where I reckon we are compared to June 06 and August 07. 

The worst is over for us.  (Bludy hell I hope so now I've said that)


----------



## >Apocalypto< (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> From last weekend.
> 
> 
> Keep your shirts on people! It's gonna be all right.
> ...




Looks to me as if it wants to retest that low. That looked like a classic counter rally. You will want to see that low hold.

cheers


----------



## Whiskers (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> Looks to me as if it wants to retest that low. That looked like a classic counter rally. You will want to see that low hold.
> 
> cheers




:aus:


----------



## cordelia (6 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Good God! What next? The 144,000 in white robes? Seven angels with seven plagues?




Bring on the sacrificial virgins....where's the nearest volcano?


----------



## Logique (7 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sincerely hoping for the prediction of the worst being over to be right!

I'm not claiming that the chart below is anything other than a simplistic look at one piece of overall market behaviour, but it might be helpful for those looking for re-entry. While the chart is for the DJIA, the XAO is showing a similar pattern. 

The psychological obstacles of 
1. the recent years bull run giving the feeling that we might have gotten ahead of ourselves, and 
2. continual battering from sub-prime and fear of US recession,

these just won't seem to go away. What can turn this all around in the short term? Some good company results announcements would help, but I fear we are just going to have to wait for the turmoil in the US financial system to play out.


----------



## Kauri (7 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Sincerely hoping for the prediction of the worst being over to be right!




 I feel that there are a lot of Ninja turtle eggs starting to hatch in the European institutions cellars, and although most of them will be on the smallish side, combined they may provide the makings of the next omlette. 
A lot of monolines in the US are worrying more about whether the eggs they have been sitting on are actually rotten, and...aahhh. what the kell.. bargains everywhere.. I'm off to fill me boots..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## IFocus (7 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Still more cockroaches to come I think, after that plague and pestilence mind you I would swap all of that for the mossies at my place currently.

Looking at the chart its still pointing down wards IMHO


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Still more cockroaches to come I think, after that plague and pestilence mind you I would swap all of that for the mossies at my place currently.
> 
> Looking at the chart its still pointing down wards IMHO




IFocus, I like your work. You don't need a chart out to 1987 to read this market, your comments on that day action is spot on IMO. Lots of people are pulling up weekly and long term charts back to 1987!. When I bet they don't normally trade off them. (if you do fine)

People often talk about lack of discipline in trading in relation to not sticking to their plans. Wonder what people think about making a major shift from one time frame to another. Part of normal analysis or lack of confidence in their normal system?


----------



## treefrog (7 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

what's this we are in - another 600 points down in 6 days deal - 450 in 4 so far


----------



## motorway (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Interesting concept you use motorway. I vaguely understand the technology, but I think I get the philosophy behind it. I think my notion of 'proportion' is roughly about the same thing.----------Whiskers.







> certain types of volatility cluster belong to certain types of trader






> Because each price depends to some extent on the previous price, the market is not a random walk






> any free market situation will have a drift exponent ( A trend constant




But...



> But time is  dynamic and  a measure of time is needed which will stretch and contract as the ( dynamics of the )system changes.
> 
> "*Time eats things*" .
> 
> You have to define time dynamically




That is either from a 1926 text on P&F
or From the work at http://www.olsen.ch/...

It is hard to say.. because they are the same..

Note the trend constant since 1982 !



> CHAOS IS SEASONAL
> Certain events appear to occur in an irregular sequence of
> nonrepeating patterns. Such a picture, which corresponds to
> the scientific notion of chaos, may seem to be useless in preparing
> ...




This is either from 1931 or by Theodore Modis 


It is How much not how long
It is not random walks  it is 

"Followings"

clustering
seasons and cycles

But make sure *T*ime does not eat you

Had to make the chart small to fit the context 

A random Walk ?

motorway


----------



## MR. (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In 1930 and 1955 the American share market (Dow) was at the same value, after 25 years.
In 1965 and 1982 the American share market (Dow) was almost the same value after 17 years.

From the Dow's high in (1929 at 330) to (2007 at 14000) the American market has increased by 5% compounding over 78 years.

However the market in 1929 was so over priced that 3 years later the Dow dropped by 87% from approx' 330 to 43.

From 1932 (the low at 43) to 2007's high the Dow had increased 9% compounding over 75 years.

From 1982 to 2007's high the Dow had increased 12% compounding over 25 years.
From 1982 to 2003 the Dow had increased by 11.5% compounding over 21 years.
From 2003 to 2007's high the Dow had increased 13% compounding over 4 years.

Australia (XAO / All-Ords)
From 1982 to 2007's high the XAO had increased 11% compounding over 25 years.
From 1982 to 2003 the XAO had increased by 10% compounding over 21 years.
From 2003 to 2007's high the XAO had increased 22% compounding over 4 years.

If we had another 22% rise in Australia in 2008 and the Dow had no growth, this would bring us in line with the Dow's 1982 to 2007 figure of 12% compounding as above.

My guess is that mining in Australia from the likes of BHP over the past 5 years has only added a few percent to that 22% compounding figure above. For example both CBA and WOW both have increased 20 odd percent compounding over the past 5 years. 






So the over all market was flat for 20 years, then raised for 15 years, then went flat for 15 years and raised again for 25 years. 

What next? Just thinking out loud and tring to work out what I am going to do... 


I don't feel safe with my superannuation in shares over the next 10-20 years! I guess alot of people just added to their share super'. Hmmmm 
Look out The Debt Bubble.....

Whats with the increase with volumes over the last 8 years?


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> Whats with the increase with volumes over the last 8 years?




In part computer arbitrage trading.


----------



## numbercruncher (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*





Nice little graph to compliment MR. post , without growth this = big trouble.


----------



## Buffettology (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting post Mr and numbercruncher.

How much of that debt growth in Australia do you attribute to the out of control income/house price ratio?  But your right, a slowdown in growth will lead to serious troubles!

Like the US used to think debt was managable and not a bad thing if the economy kept growing.  This is what was taught to me in Uni several years ago!  Funny how most things taught are then re-written just a few years later!


----------



## Whiskers (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> A random Walk ?




I think only to the extent of emotional excesses... ie the time for each lesson to be learnt (and enacted) before the next step/cycle can begin.

But then 'probability' can narrow the trajectory a lot.


----------



## MR. (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buffettology said:


> Like the US used to think debt was managable and not a bad thing if the economy kept growing.  This is what was taught to me in Uni several years ago!  Funny how most things taught are then re-written just a few years later!




Uni', I wonder where I'd be if I went to Uni'....  I wonder where I'd be if I had started year 11...  I suppose it reflects in my simplisticly worded posts..... 

But finiancially it is another story.


----------



## prawn_86 (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> Whats with the increase with volumes over the last 8 years?




That i can answer! 

The internet and increased ease of communications


----------



## numbercruncher (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Exactly, every armchair gambler on the planet can buy and sell in a flash


----------



## MR. (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



numbercruncher said:


> Exactly, every armchair gambler on the planet can buy and sell in a flash



Also TREMBLING HAND & PAWN_86

OK. With these volumes and without the market increasing in price, what happens next? Stay tuned.........


----------



## motorway (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The chart does not look scary
note how the 87 peak emerged from a significant decline
and note how far above the trend (line )constant ,it rose..

look at the rally from 1983

note the action it arose from ( oversold .. so there was catch up as well as 
a real story ...China )

At this stage it only looks like a correction of a bull market

and the chart will work it's way to the two trend lines  ( APEX ? )

The bullish %  ( which aggregates every P&F chart in the mkt )
Hit that low of 6.6%

THERE WAS NO SUPPORT

but the volume surged
and ( short covering accepted ) there was good buying..

B% continues to recover and ( IF you want to take it mechanically ( I wouldn't  ) is close to BULL confirmed...

I think we are still in Winter ( but the shortest day comes in the first third of winter )

Minsky pattern refers to Hyman Minsky and the build up of bubbles from leverage

Hedged Borrowers ...( cover principle and interest out of real cashflow )
Speculative ( cover interest only )
Ponzi ( cover nothing .. rely on Phantom Capital Gains )

All of that even down to some of the hedged borrowers needs to unwind..
But mkts will ( they always do ) tend to mark the bottom  quickly ( discounting the future while scared to death ) ( B%at 6.6% !!! )

look after 87 the first bottom was the bottom

The P&F is a digital computer in graphic form

The fluctuations are made by differences of opinion ( yes No, X O , 100101 )
There is only a limited random walk at work here
The P&F chart  has an old name ... A manipulation detector..
By looking at price in dynamic time it reveals "Hidden Order"

The P&F chart says it is not how long that does the work
but how much ( How many times must opinion be tested by fluctuations until the "Hidden Order" is revealed...

test response, test response

Everyone might well be underwater ( ponzi & Speculative borrowers )
That point marks the lows...
The fluctuations will reveal how soon they stop holding their breath..



motorway


----------



## Buffettology (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

^^^^^^^^^^^^^



English please?  

So what is the outcome of that post?  You think the bottom is near and then the bull run will continue?  

Man, I really gotta start getting more into T/A even if its just so I can understand some of these posts on charting and trend analysis.


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> OK. With these volumes and without the market increasing in price, what happens next? Stay tuned.........




No increase in price?????

By the way that increase is to be expected as an Index grows. Company's grow, more shares are issued, & split and merged and funds raised etc etc.

More trading that is to be expected. Have a look at any long term volume figures of a company that has tripled in price. volume also increases. 

Not sure what you are getting at here


----------



## motorway (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buffettology said:


> ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Bottoms come quicker than everyone expects

esp those who do not take the advice of the three monkeys ( see no news hear no news etc )

and so at a much higher price and much later "experts" will then say "now is the time to Buy"...

Bottoms come quicker .. because mkts very quickly get around to discounting the future... esp when panic produces an oversold state as well

It is only the bottom that is important
 waiting for new highs so as to be able declare a new bull market is unimportant ( and costly )...

Also USA is not like JAPAN.. ( I see a large difference )

A Bullish percent  ( earlier posts , Google ) of  6.6%
either IS the bottom , or is the start of a severe bear mkt ( can not see that atm )... How can everything  be a sell with no support ? ( and the make up of that 6.6% would contain a number of "dead horses" eg if a stock was  delisted , it could still be above the "last point of support")

In a Acc/Diss cycle... There is the distance travelled ( a lot of basic TA only looks at this and tries to follow along often at the wrong time )...There is acceleration and deceleration as cycles start and begin to end (  measuring thrusts and reactions  of the buying and selling waves)  
Then there is the "Position" that action and reactions spring from

ie: There is the trend , but also the position in the trend
Position is contrary to trend ... ( a better word maybe is complimentary to trend )

a trend builds an oversold or an overbought "position"

It is common for the "public" to be fooled here too..

B% is an aggregated chart of every stocks position on a P&F chart

( a P&F chart is a chart of technical positions.. among other things )

It moves contrary to trend.............

(over 80% it is flashing amber and red
under 30% it will soon be flashing green)

and as I said it does not remain at panic levels long
It is just too exhausting to remain in a panic mode.

Then there is Volume,, where it comes in and what it does
Volume confirms that the oversold position is an oversold position etc
Volume also reveals junctures of starting and stopping etc

What ( or who ? ) makes the columns change on the P&F chart ?..
Realizing that , is the key to understanding them and making use of them.



> The S-shaped curve is a visualization of the natural law
> that governs growth . This curve depicts the
> how far you have gone. The second visualization of the same law is the
> the rate of growth, the life cycle.
> ...




P&F charts display nice acc/dis cycle ( S curve )

( pattern and symmetry of price ( demand and supply ) in Dynamic Time )

The how far
The how much
and "promise for the future"

B% is one measure of that promise
as are the horizontal congestion zones on the individual charts

( a cause that will have an effect )

( again what or who makes a P&F chart move sideways ? )

B% is often combined with option strategies ( I note your interest in options )



motorway


----------



## IFocus (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> IFocus, I like your work. You don't need a chart out to 1987 to read this market, your comments on that day action is spot on IMO. Lots of people are pulling up weekly and long term charts back to 1987!. When I bet they don't normally trade off them. (if you do fine)
> 
> People often talk about lack of discipline in trading in relation to not sticking to their plans. Wonder what people think about making a major shift from one time frame to another. Part of normal analysis or lack of confidence in their normal system?




Hi Th just trying to stay on the right side of the market (aren't we all) the candle on the 4th at the top of the ABC correction is as good as it gets allowing to get set short and take the next couple of bars.

The other is time frame, I am looking to trade the market time frame, currently a one to two bar proposition IMHO.

Focus


----------



## treefrog (8 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> ................So the over all market was flat for 20 years, then raised for 15 years, then went flat for 15 years and raised again for 25 years.



nice chart Mr.
Hmmmmmmm, not hard to adjust those slopes and flats to:
flat til 1950 (20yrs)
rising next 15 ('50-'65)
then flat '65-'83 (18yrs)
rising '83-2000 (17yrs)
flat 2000-2018??

bottom line - are we just in consolitation which of course includes a few bears - its just that they don't show up on the larger scale


----------



## motorway (9 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> The S-shaped curve is a visualization of the natural law
> that governs growth .




This is the Acc/Dis cycle that occurs on all magnitudes
On the largest scales .leverage is an important factor



> This curve depicts the
> how far you have gone.




2003 to 2007 ....The price range of the chart...



> The second visualization of the same law is the
> the rate of growth, the life cycle.
> This curve is linked to how much momentum you have
> acquired: how difficult it will be to stop you.




These are the blue lines marking the lengthening and shortening of the thrust
of momentum also the depth of reactions back
But with the P&F also the horizontal Vs the vertical movement

less thrust more fluctuations ( order giving way to chaos )



> The third visualization
> is the up-and-down-and-up curve. It is linked to the
> force that drives the growth process: the promise for the future.




Because mkts are about following ( and are not random )
Technical positions are built that are counter to the trend itself

So trend creates position and position creates trend

The B% is one version of the up down and up curve

trend and position .... lead and follow each other..




> The predictive power associated with these curves comes
> from their symmetry.




The 1 box reversal chart is the foundation.. The box size of 1.25% has been chosen because it has defined the action very well...

The 3 box rev chart qualifies and informs the 1 box..it helps clarify..

The B% chart made extreme lows in Aug 2007 and just recently...
It quickly has moved to Bull alert , to Bull confirmed and is currently at bull correction

I note the width of the current  congestion and it's shape
differences of opinion are being sorted 
unlike in Aug

I also note the high, low ,higher high, lower low, pattern
This current congestion is an exhaustion of that pattern
Congestion is  a sign of new factors that will create new followings..




> CHAOS IS SEASONAL
> Certain events appear to occur in an irregular sequence of
> nonrepeating patterns. Such a picture, which corresponds to
> the scientific notion of chaos, may seem to be useless in preparing
> ...






Look at 2004 to 2006 







> Once a trend enters a high-growth season, fluctuations become
> less significant.




look at 2006 to 2007 on  to 2008 







> In
> particular, chaos is associated with periods of stagnation.




because markets are about "following"

They can make bottoms very quickly
when all are selling and no one is buying
bottoms can come almost instantly

That We will find out.
I would like to see the congestion zone narrow
and the B % to move towards 50% ( because it is an aggregation of non linear charts it is extremely quick in responding a pull back can lead to a large move in sentiment .. The point of resistance moves lower.. unlike a moving average that is ensnared in time )



> This “critical” model builds on the idea that the volatility, or variation, of price changes can quantitatively measure how much the market may fluctuate.




motorway


----------



## motorway (9 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For Comparison
Here is the DOW

Bubble ? What Bubble !

Not in this stock market

this market is in an entirely different position to the XAO

Both Because of where it has come from and what the consensus of those future prospects are... ( consensus often is wrong )

The chart is full of inertia and differences of opinion

It is a chart ( compared to the XAO ) of stagnation

one long winter ? ( so far )



Motorway


----------



## Whiskers (10 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From last weekend:


Whiskers said:


> Just for illustration purposes I see the XAO trending something similar to mid 2006 for the next few months, ie we have found bottom and will tend fairly flat around the long term trend line (yellow) for a few weeks until we establish where to go from there, which I am still inclined to think slightly bullish.




Good support established about 5,665.

There is now higher highs and higher lows pointing to another higher high this week. 

If I understand motorway correctly he is looking for/expecting a bit more bullish sentiment and momentem... and I think we will get it.

The bold black down trend line needs to be broken through this week and I think it will be and probably reach 6,100 or so. 

Push a bit further and we're starting to seriously turn this little down trend off and settle into a sideways consolidation.


----------



## wavepicker (10 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> From last weekend:
> 
> 
> Good support established about 5,665.
> ...





Totally agree with motorway and yourself, in the near term the market will move sideways to up. In fact I am looking for a target of 6244pts by the 10 to 11th March. For me based on the EW,Time cycles, and Fibonacci relationship studies I am doing this is a high probability target. Part of the reasoning for this was made in the following post:-

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=254258&postcount=2745

Now this analysis is not cast in stone as there are no guarantees or certainties in the market, but the evidence is overwhelming to me anyway that the date of 10-11 March will be very important.

However this is not the end of the bear campaign just yet, and this rally will be eventually fully retraced starting after the 11th March.

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker (10 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Totally agree with motorway and yourself, in the near term the market will move sideways to up. In fact I am looking for a target of 6244pts by the 10 to 11th March. For me based on the EW,Time cycles, and Fibonacci relationship studies I am doing this is a high probability target. Part of the reasoning for this was made in the following post:-
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=254258&postcount=2745
> 
> ...




The following I was going to post in the ‘Elliott wave Analysis “thread, but because it’s an analysis on the XAO I thought it might be better on this thread.

A word of warning though, this analysis is for those who are interested in EW, Time Cycle and Fibonacci Analysis relationships. If you are not interested in these Trading Strategies then ignore this post.

This analysis is NOT trading advice, merely my opinion and some interesting relationships in play at the moment in the market. There are no certainties in the market only possibilities and probabilities. 

This is a study for the XAO in Elliott Wave Structure, Fixed Time Cycle Analysis, and Fibonacci relationships both in price and TIME.
I will start by looking at Elliott Wave Structure, firstly in the Long Term and working our way down to the short term. This will be necessary as first we need to see what the market is has done in the past (in terms of wave structure), where it is now, and where it might be going in the near term

*XAO_ Elliott Wave Analysis*
Firstly looking at the Long Term EW Monthly chart going back since 1984:

Wave 2 I have labelled as the 1987 crash, this was a very sharp sell off and under EWT if wave 2 is a sharp correction then chances are that wave 4 of the same degree of trend (what we are in now), will more than likely be a sideways affair i.e. a triangle or some variation thereof OR and flat or irregular flat. I have listed some of the probable scenarios below in terms of wave structure. What should be apparent here is that the market will most likely be range bound between  it’s all time high and the final low of this leg down (when it complete) for quite a long time. This will be a multi year sideways or range bound market. As such it will be a traders market, not a buy and holders market and the days of high rate of change of price that we have had for the last 4 years is over. It’s going get much tougher for the fundies to make it. 


A wave 4 usually retraces between 0.382 and 0.500 the price of the entire 3rd wave. A common place for wave 4 to complete is the lower point of the span of wave 4 of one less degree. So that would be a wave 4 within major red wave 3 in the above diagram. Pink wave 4 at 4694 pts looks like a good place for support. It also coincides with the 0.382 retrace of the entire red wave 3 advance.
If we were to make the assumption that red wave 4 is currently in the first leg decline of a contracting triangle (and I am not saying with confidence that is what is happening as it could be any of the patterns shown above), then the most likely place for that first leg of that contracting triangle would the 0.382 level or approximately 4694pts. 


Now zooming in the chart into the present daily EW chart juncture(the chart that follows), my most probable count based on the long term chart is as follows in the 3rd attachment.



This chart is basically saying that the first leg down of the triangle or flat or whatever type of wave 4 we are in is not over. At the moment there are many bears saying we are going lower in the near term. I believe that will be the case eventually but the market needs to still unwind sideways to upward before the next leg start down. For various reasons in the pages to follow you will se why I believe that will be the case, but also remember the are no certainties in the market and I am also only evaluating probabilities here. We have an unfilled gap at 5835pts, IMO the market will go up and fill it before it comes down and we also have are currently in an uncompleted wave structure. The market will struggle sideways for a few weeks before blowing off to the 6243pt level(which is the 0.618 retrace level) before heading south again. My target date for this high is 10 or11th of March. The price level is based of the confluence of 3 things:

•	Retrace of price from top to bottom
•	Assuming we get a contracting triangle pattern blue wave b forming
             the thrust upward will be the approximate height of the triangle.
•	The squaring of both price and time

Some weeks ago on the XAO Analysis thread I had posted the chart below using fixed term cycles for repeating highs and lows over the medium term. The numbers on this chart represent possible points in TIME of when a change in trend and certain degree is due. The positioning of the numbers is only valid on the time scale, disregard their position relative to the price axis as it serves no purpose. This is purely a time study(refer 4th attachment)

Based on when the last time red point 6 occurred it should arrive again in approximately mid March.  According to this strategy then because red point 5 has already made a low then the market is bullish till mid March. These cycle points are our termination points for our Elliott Wave Structures in TIME, so using this method we are now able to quantify our wave counts as being the most probable ones in the earlier charts.


*Fibonacci Price and Time relationships-Putting it all Together*

Many traders are aware of the importance of Fibonacci relationships in price retracements and price extensions. These relationships not only manifest themselves in price but more importantly in time. The Fibonacci number sequence is as follows:-

•	1,  1,  2,  3,  5,  8,  13,  21,  34,  55,  89,  144,  233,  377………

Very often from price pivot to pivot i.e. a high to high, low to a low, low to a high or high to a low end up being one of the numbers of this sequence in terms of time in traded bars OR calendar days. The key is to find if the sequence occurs in either of these formats historically and then project forward. Other times the market may show these Fibonacci relationships in Traded Bars and then continue the sequence in calendar days or vice versa. 

The reasons for this is that TIME has more than one “dimension”

I should note here that in addition to the above number sequence being active in  TIME , the twin numbers of the above are also active:-

•	 2,  4,  6,  10,  16,  26,  42,  68,  110,  178,  288,  466,  754………

A great example of Fibonacci Time relationships is apparent at the current juncture in the XAO, refer to chart on 5th attachment:

As can be seen from this chart, Fibonacci number counts starting from 4 different points in time (which are actually high or low pivots) all cluster at the 11/3/08 date when counting Trading days forward. What is fascinating about these relationships is that each count hits a high or low in order of the Fibonacci sequence:-

•	Blue Numbers: 55, 89, 144.
•	Red Numbers:  34, 55, 89.
•	Pink Numbers: 21, 34, 55.
•	Green Numbers: 34.


*Squaring Of Price and Time*
We are now in a position square both price and time to obtain both a price level and time point (date) that the market should turn on.
We are looking for precision here, so phi relationship in time should also be apparent in price. In this case the 01/11/07 high to the 22/01/08 low in terms of time extended forward from the 22/01/08 date by 0.618 gives date of 10/11 March.(see 6th attachment in the next post)

At the same time 0.618 retracement of price high to low gives us a price point of where the market should turn at on the 10/11 March of 6244 pts. Time will tell if this will be proven correct. Now if price falls into this date then the market will be bullish thereafter or if price rises into this date it should be bearish. Our fixed Time Cycles Analysis (as does EW) says it will rise into this date.

*Conclusion*
The market is not random, it moves up and down in patterned way, and has order in terms of TIME. It also at times exhibits accuracy as shown with these Fibonacci relationships.

As WD Gann once said, it is Natural Law that binds the market together. Every top and bottom is related mathematically both in TIME and Price. It’s all there staring at you in the face, but you just have to know where to look for it. Sometimes it’s very hard to find, other times it’s easily seen but it is there.

The Fixed Time Cycle Analysis tells you approximately were a pivot should be. Together with Elliott Wave Analysis and pattern analysis it is the guide because the Fixed Time Cycle points are the termination points of Elliott Waves at various degrees of trend. The accuracy here is up to 8 traded bars, Fibonacci ratios and counts can then be used to help one determine with more accuracy when a time point will occur and at what level (price).


----------



## wavepicker (10 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

6th attachment for post 2842:


----------



## Sean K (11 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks WP, some great info there. kennas


----------



## nizar (11 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Thanks WP, some great info there. kennas




I second kennas' comments.
Some great work there.

WP, maybe you mentioned it, and I just missed it, but when in your opinion roughly will the final 4600-4700 target be reached?

Do the probabilities point to the bottom being in 2008 or further down the track?


----------



## wavepicker (11 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> I second kennas' comments.
> Some great work there.
> 
> WP, maybe you mentioned it, and I just missed it, but when in your opinion roughly will the final 4600-4700 target be reached?
> ...




Hello Nizar, just remember 11th March might only turn out to be a minor point and I could be wrong too. The post was primarily to show the relationships in play at the moment. 

I am only taking it one step at a time ATM and have not thought about what happens after the Fib date for the timing of the next cycle point. However I would say approximately mid May based on earlier cycle points.

Mid May will be a major cycle point of the same degree we had in November, and as such I would be looking to be bullish the market till 2009 after that point.

Cheers


----------



## the barry (11 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Thanks WP, some great info there. kennas




Not if you are long, lol. Where is the bull? Time to return to the paddock.


----------



## austek (11 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wave Picker, whether your dates and counts are right or wrong, it gives us battlers who do not have this knowledge the ability to plan for the road ahead give or take days or weeks in the accuracy or lack of.

Thanks for putting in the effort and sharing.  Takes my breathe away.


----------



## IFocus (11 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks for all the work WP and putting it up on the thread looking forward to seeing how it plays out as always

Focus


----------



## wavepicker (11 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks Ifocus and Austek, no probs.

Barry, you may well be right. Time will tell...

Cheers


----------



## austek (11 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

WP luv your work and I am now sticking my head into Robert Miner's Dynamic Trading book to get a grip on time projection, and have one question.

If it takes 55TD from Aug low to Nov high, why use 34 TD from Jan low to next high in March instead of 55TD.  

Hoping it's just a simple question requiring a simple answer


----------



## wavepicker (11 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



austek said:


> WP luv your work and I am now sticking my head into Robert Miner's Dynamic Trading book to get a grip on time projection, and have one question.
> 
> If it takes 55TD from Aug low to Nov high, why use 34 TD from Jan low to next high in March instead of 55TD.
> 
> Hoping it's just a simple question requiring a simple answer




Thanks Austek, Miner is probably is not a bad place to start. I must admit I have not been studying and applying TIME for that long and did not look at Miners work. I just applied it through trial and error.

The main point I was trying to make in that chart was the 11th of March and that fact that so many counts starting from 4 different places ALL cluster on the same date(11th March). Two points clustering is a high probability of a turning point, but four points makes it a very high probability. The question now is will marke a high or a low. In the analysis I mentioned that IMO it will mark a high. Either way it has a good chance of being important. 34TD from the 22 Jan low clusters on the 11th March. 55TD from 22 Jan might also be important but have to quantified this yet. The next major time cluster, almost as important as the 11 March is the 27th May, and by my reckoning that might be a high, but it is a long ways off, let's focus on one move at a time for now.
Nizar asked the question earlier when to expect the next major low. Not sure about this yet.

For your info Tech did start a new thread on a book written Jeff Greenblatt who uses similar approaches using both Fibs and Lucas Numbers. I have heard this book is quite good. Here is the link to techs thread:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8924

I should note that there are a myriad of Fibonacci turnpoints possible all over the place and by using Lucas numbers as well as Fibs does not help. This is where using Fibs in isolation is a problem. Our job is to reduce the possibilities not increase them. That's where the Time Cycles and EW help, they are the guide and warn you of an approximate date ahead, by using the Fibs/Lucas numbers we can then narrow down to most probable date. Fibonacci Time analysis as Miner promotes can be like looking for a needle in a haystack at times.
Cheers


----------



## Porper (12 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Thanks Austek, Miner is probably is not a bad place to start. I must admit I have not been studying and applying TIME for that long and did not look at Miners work. I just applied it through trial and error.
> 
> The main point I was trying to make in that chart was the 11th of March and that fact that so many counts starting from 4 different places ALL cluster on the same date(11th March). Two points clustering is a high probability of a turning point, but four points makes it a very high probability. The question now is will marke a high or a low. In the analysis I mentioned that IMO it will mark a high. Either way it has a good chance of being important. 34TD from the 22 Jan low clusters on the 11th March. 55TD from 22 Jan might also be important but have to quantified this yet. The next major time cluster, almost as important as the 11 March is the 27th May, and by my reckoning that might be a high, but it is a long ways off, let's focus on one move at a time for now.
> Nizar asked the question earlier when to expect the next major low. Not sure about this yet.
> ...




Miner isn't a fan of fixed time cycles but with the market being dynamic, growing as time goes on, his theory seems to be the higher probability projections are made using recent swings, ie.low to low, low to highs etc, etc.Theory is that each cycle or wave will terminate at or near a cluster of all these projections.Sometimes this seems to work, others you can have 5 or 6 projections and they will be all over the place, so of no value, much like any other form of analysis, sometimes there isn't any helpful info.

Miner does acknowledge that sometimes fixed cycle counts do occur regularly and these are helpful, as are squares and anniversary dates.

At work, will post some examples if anyone interested when I have more time.


----------



## austek (12 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks Porp I for one am interested to get a start in that direction, pertaining to the XAO.  
Wait with interest


----------



## CFD (12 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Great work WP, pleased to see you are still studying these relationships. Looks like it might be a life long journey,  congratulations on your efforts so far and your willingness to post them to help the understanding of these works by others.


----------



## Porper (12 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



austek said:


> Thanks Porp I for one am interested to get a start in that direction, pertaining to the XAO.
> Wait with interest





Just a quick short term chart with some projections on.

If the count is correct we will terminate wave 5 of 3 around the 5000 level, time projections point to 05th  March.

Please note that Wavepicker has done much more work on his chart using various tools,and is further on in his understanding of time analysis. This is just using recent swings, measuring and projecting using fib.mainly to show people interested the basics, a starting point if you like.

All we have done is measured low to lows, low to highs and projected forward from various points to try and gain a clue as to where the trend may complete.(This is all in Miners book).You can see the cluster is around the 05th March.This makes this date a strong probability as a turning point.

If 6168 is broken the count is incorrect, if we do travel down to around the 5000 area we have only completed wave 3 of 5 so should expect a bounce up to wave 4, followed by another , maybe final leg down to complete the 5 wave structure.


----------



## nomore4s (12 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some good support starting to form around 5600.

Sorry no chart at work, may post one later tonight


----------



## wavepicker (12 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Miner isn't a fan of fixed time cycles but with the market being dynamic, growing as time goes on, his theory seems to be the higher probability projections are made using recent swings, ie.low to low, low to highs etc, etc.Theory is that each cycle or wave will terminate at or near a cluster of all these projections.Sometimes this seems to work, others you can have 5 or 6 projections and they will be all over the place, so of no value, much like any other form of analysis, sometimes there isn't any helpful info.
> 
> Miner does acknowledge that sometimes fixed cycle counts do occur regularly and these are helpful, as are squares and anniversary dates.
> 
> At work, will post some examples if anyone interested when I have more time.




Hello Porper. 

The way I am applying my fixed cycles is completely different to using anniversary dates and squares. In fact it's the best cycles analysis method aside from what Magdoran's geometric approach that I have seen. The fixed cycles approach I use is closely tied in with EW and the cycles points are in fact terminations of waves. It has specific rules and guidlelines for it's use like EW does. Rather pinpointing an exact date it alerts you to potential change in trend approaching. It's major advantage is that it (along with EW) quantifies the signifance of a turning point(i.e degree of trend) compared to other approaches Then other methods(such as Fibs or even Gann geometric approaches)  are applied to obtain further accuracy. Applying fibs like Miner is saying has much merit, but applying them in isolation without any other confluences is like looking for a needle in a haystack as mentioed in an earlier post, as there are many possibilities.

BTW, I think we got the pivot we were looking for today, even now looking at the DJIA it has formed an ED on it's 50% retarce of the move down and IMO is going to rally

Cheers


----------



## Kauri (12 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> BTW, I think we got the pivot we were looking for today, even now looking at the DJIA it has formed an ED on it's 50% retarce of the move down and IMO is going to rally
> 
> Cheers




 Miners automatic Fib Time routine.. in the lower ind. panel.. done several weeks ago... filtered to show only the major hits... may tie in with your findings....
  and where the dow goes so we follow???
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## chops_a_must (12 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The only stick in the mud that I can see is the financial index poking through vital support.

CBA earnings tomorrow will be absolutely crucial for the market. Would want to see some of the financials kick up a bit, and if they do, a triangle breakout on the XAO looks good to me. Certainly wouldn't want to be short, but don't want to be buying with ears pinned back either. Going to be a matter of picking the right stocks I feel.


----------



## wavepicker (12 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Certainly wouldn't want to be short, but don't want to be buying with ears pinned back either. Going to be a matter of picking the right stocks I feel.




Good point Chops, we must not forget also that we are still in a bear campaign and any rally will probably be only a brief opportunity.


----------



## wavepicker (12 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Just a quick short term chart with some projections on.
> 
> If the count is correct we will terminate wave 5 of 3 around the 5000 level, time projections point to 05th  March.
> 
> ...





Hello Pete,

I also came with that cluster as well for the 5th March before finding the 11th March date but it was too far away from my expected Cycle point so kept it as an alternate . Also came up with  21st March which is another possibility, but the pattern of the trend as we approach the time (in the right direction hopefully) will be the best guide.

As mentioned earlier, there are a myriad of possibilities available.

I tend to look at following aspects to narrow them down:

-Pattern
-Time(Cycle Points)
-Lastly price Level


----------



## Porper (12 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Hello Porper.
> 
> 
> BTW, I think we got the pivot we were looking for today, even now looking at the DJIA it has formed an ED on it's 50% retarce of the move down and IMO is going to rally
> ...




I agree wavepicker, something has to give,I have the XAO still bearish (although today wasn't a good day for that scenario)and the Dow bullish.I posted this chart on another forum this morning, so with a high probability that the XAO will not go down while the Dow rallies, then one is incorrect.

I know which I think is incorrect.


----------



## wavepicker (13 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Miners automatic Fib Time routine.. in the lower ind. panel.. done several weeks ago... filtered to show only the major hits... may tie in with your findings....
> and where the dow goes so we follow???
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Looks like we are getting the move we expected Kauri, hopefully a good day today


----------



## sassa (13 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> and where the dow goes so we follow???
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




The Dow or the more accurate indicators? of the American market,the Nasdaq and the Wilshire 5000.


----------



## Kauri (13 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> The Dow or the more accurate indicators? of the American market,the Nasdaq and the Wilshire 5000.




I actually use the S+P500 as the most typical of the US market... but as the subject was the Dow,,, well when in Rome..
>>>>
.......Kauri


----------



## Kauri (13 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm not convinced that we are going to have a great rally from here... todays financial sector notwithstanding.... if the Dow/S+P rallied overnight mainly on Buffett then when it really sinks in that he is only offfering to insure the monos top flight gear.. and at a premium of 1.5x what it is currently set at.. then the euphoria may fade as quickly as it arrived...
 Also although a lotof the writedowns in US and some of the bigguns in Europe have surfaced.. one country that has a very large financial investment in all things American has been noticably absent at the coming out party.. when, as opposed to if, they make a late appearance, possibly through March, we may have more mayhem to contend with... unless of course in the meantime...   
  just rambling
.................Mrs Watanabe..


----------



## Porper (13 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> I'm not convinced that we are going to have a great rally from here... ..




I thought yesterday was maybe the start of a run up but today the sellers appeared again.Basically we don't know what we want to do.

Well most counts have us in a wave 3 down still, terminating around 5000 (see chart earlier).I haven't dared project wave 5 yet......................... but it has to be around 4500 ish.

Then pin ya ears back for the next leg up...................maybe.


----------



## chops_a_must (13 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> I'm not convinced that we are going to have a great rally from here... todays financial sector notwithstanding.... if the Dow/S+P rallied overnight mainly on Buffett then when it really sinks in that he is only offfering to insure the monos top flight gear.. and at a premium of 1.5x what it is currently set at.. then the euphoria may fade as quickly as it arrived...
> Also although a lotof the writedowns in US and some of the bigguns in Europe have surfaced.. one country that has a very large financial investment in all things American has been noticably absent at the coming out party.. when, as opposed to if, they make a late appearance, possibly through March, we may have more mayhem to contend with... unless of course in the meantime...
> just rambling
> .................Mrs Watanabe..




I don't think it was ever going to be that strong a break. Triangle breakouts on downtrends tend to be pretty weak, and faded quickly from a novices observation.

I don't think you can deny the effect that CBA had on the market today though. Really sapped the energy of the bulls. And unless the financials rebound from around here, there is going to be a lot more pain  for the whole market I feel. A rebound is possible, given some scratchy support and a fib point. The next support is about 20% away for the financials though. Has been very impotent compared some other areas. 

A lot further to go until this all ends for sure.

XFJ chart for those interested. As you can see, the continued breakdown after the lacklustre rebound is a worry. W5 starting on that index for E wavers???:


----------



## dhukka (13 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just on the financials, since the All Ords peaked on November 1st they are all doing worse than the broader market. NAB off *-30%*, CBA off *-25%* WBC down *-25%* and ANZ down *-22%*


----------



## wayneL (13 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Just on the financials, since the All Ords peaked on November 1st they are all doing worse than the broader market. NAB off *-30%*, CBA off *-25%* WBC down *-25%* and ANZ down *-22%*




Defensives eh? Another fallacy gets credit crunched.


----------



## chilliaa (13 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Just on the financials, since the All Ords peaked on November 1st they are all doing worse than the broader market. NAB off *-30%*, CBA off *-25%* WBC down *-25%* and ANZ down *-22%*





Yes isnt it great, i havent felt so happy in years.  Finally value is coming from every angle.  I am like a kid in a candy store.


----------



## wayneL (13 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chilliaa said:


> Yes isnt it great, i havent felt so happy in years.  Finally value is coming from every angle.  I am like a kid in a candy store.




chilliaa,

Geniune question: Why do you believe the banks are good value at this point?


----------



## numbercruncher (13 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Australia has one of the highest Debt to Income ratios on the planet.

Atleast a Trillion dollars worth, its going to come home to roost sooner or later.

With interest rates skyrocketing many many households wont be able to service this debt.

Inflation is probably the only way out (income, prices etc to play catch up to realestate and debt), be alot of pain along the way though as it all feeds an inflation cycle 

I suspect the market believes (amoungst other things) the home to roost is happening sooner than later, hence the banks starting to get spanked 

Futures point to 75pc chance of another RBA rise next month


----------



## Uncle Festivus (13 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> .. one country that has a very large financial investment in all things American has been noticably absent at the coming out party.. when, as opposed to if, they make a late appearance, possibly through March, we may have more mayhem to contend with... unless of course in the meantime...
> just rambling
> .................Mrs Watanabe..




Kauri... I think Japan will throw a very good party when the time is right - apparently lot's of people will be unexpectantly invited .



> Just as battered investors had begun to glimpse signs of recovery in America, the next shoe has dropped with an almighty thud in Japan. Echoes are rumbling across the Far East.
> 
> The Tokyo bourse has crumbled, suffering the worst start to the year since the Second World War. The Nikkei index is down 17 per cent since Christmas, and the shares of Japanese banks are leading the slide. Mizuho Financial, Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui have all been punished as hard or even harder than those US banks at the epicentre of the sub-prime debacle.
> 
> ...



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...08/02/10/ccjapan110.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox


----------



## Buffettology (13 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> chilliaa,
> 
> Geniune question: Why do you believe the banks are good value at this point?




I agree, I havent found one bank that is good value at this point.


----------



## wavepicker (14 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> I'm not convinced that we are going to have a great rally from here... todays financial sector notwithstanding.... if the Dow/S+P rallied overnight mainly on Buffett then when it really sinks in that he is only offfering to insure the monos top flight gear.. and at a premium of 1.5x what it is currently set at.. then the euphoria may fade as quickly as it arrived...
> Also although a lotof the writedowns in US and some of the bigguns in Europe have surfaced.. one country that has a very large financial investment in all things American has been noticably absent at the coming out party.. when, as opposed to if, they make a late appearance, possibly through March, we may have more mayhem to contend with... unless of course in the meantime...
> just rambling
> .................Mrs Watanabe..




Other worldwide bourses are rallying as expected. Did Aussie market put in a pivot on Monday as was the expectation from the analysis I posted?? Will bank fallout continue to send our market lower?
My opinion is the worst is over for the time being. Not expecting our market to blast off from here, but at least trend cautiously sideways to upward until all the negativity is washed out.

Some of the banks(not all) appear as if they were completing or are still in  fifth waves yesterday. Among them CBA. If it has not completed that 5th wave then it would have to be only a few days away. This does not mean their bear market is over though but at least a rally as short as it may be could be in the making soon.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (14 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> chilliaa,
> 
> Geniune question: Why do you believe the banks are good value at this point?



I agree that falling off highs does not indicate value, but must make them _better_value at least. I'm watching those banks with interest. Been smashed, maybe deservedly, but when they become 'good value' is the question. Rumours an _Australian_ bank is going to report sub prime losses this am won't put a floor under these blood sucking fee monsters.



> 0828 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD sharply lower overnight on rumors that an Australian bank is facing losses on subprime mortgages, according to Westpac FX strategy. Speculation in markets partly accounted for slide from 0.9040 to lows around 0.8940. AUD/USD was the main underperformer among the major currencies. AUD/USD now 0.8965. (JEG)




Is this XAO Analysis?  Sorry.


----------



## korrupt_1 (15 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just looking at the last 2 weeks action...

Seems that a decending triangle is forming... lower highs... (although not a perfect decending trangle as the lows are also higher too)

A break of 5750 might be a signal for higher prices...

A break below 5500 could be very very bad indeed... It seems that 5520-5540 has seen some VERY STRONG support so far.

I just wish I was game enough to trade these levels... the market is bonkers and needs to be hospitalised for mental problems...:bonk:


----------



## chilliaa (15 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> chilliaa,
> 
> Geniune question: Why do you believe the banks are good value at this point?




The time to start sniffing around is when everyone else is distressed.  I still dont like CBA as had a faster rise last year and is thus more highly priced than the other banks.  But ANZ and NAB are are BEGINING to look ok.  (Still prefer ANZ though cause of better consistency in their earnings).

I am not saying bet the house at this stage, but start to nibble, i am also refering to the financial sector in general.
The only sector i am avoiding is the resource and resource linked contractor stocks.  This will probably hammer my short term performance, but in the long term i feel alot more comfortable.


----------



## Buffettology (15 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Just looking at the last 2 weeks action...
> 
> Seems that a decending triangle is forming... lower highs... (although not a perfect decending trangle as the lows are also higher too)
> 
> ...




Korrupt, with your chart, after its first low, it doesnt rally to form a high above the following highs, wouldnt this indicate it is NOT a descending triangle?  Though I do note that the chart is over a VERY small timeframe.  

Furthermore, wouldnt resistance be just above 5700 (as opposed to above 5750?).

Chilliaa, why are you avoiding the resources boom?  It appears fundamentally, reasonably safe.  Its not like the tech boom where you have absolutely rediculous prices based upon absolutely no fundamentals but simply a belief that e-commerce is the "way of business in the future".

Cheers


----------



## chilliaa (15 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buffettology said:


> I agree, I havent found one bank that is good value at this point.




To be honest I cant make a really strong BUY case at the moment.  Because I think provisioning as been under accounted for the last 5+yrs.  The other issue is historical shrink in margins (even before this credit crisis stuff happened, refer to the banks 2007 annual reports and you will see what I mean).

At the end of the day, you have to make a 'bet' (I hate using that word), on where you see the Australian economy in several years down the track.  If we have a 'soft patch', I think the banks will pull through.  However if the economic climate gets rough then their stock has much further to go.

For myself I dont know the answer to that, so I bought ANZ earlier this year at about $26 which represented around 3% of my portfolio.  Obviously the current price is lower, I am not buying more because of the risks mentioned above, but at the same time I am selling.

I have been recently buying other financial related stocks: MQG, BNB AMP and CPU during the recent turmoil.  

If ASX can get down to around $35 I will start to pick that one up as well.


----------



## chilliaa (15 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chilliaa said:


> TTo be honest I cant make a really strong BUY case at the moment.  Because I think provisioning as been under accounted for the last 5+yrs.  The other issue is historical shrink in margins (even before this credit crisis stuff happened, refer to the banks 2007 annual reports and you will see what I mean).
> 
> At the end of the day, you have to make a 'bet' (I hate using that word), on where you see the Australian economy in several years down the track.  If we have a 'soft patch', I think the banks will pull through.  However if the economic climate gets rough then their stock has much further to go.
> 
> ...




Sorry in reference to ANZ should have said also NOT selling.


----------



## Whiskers (16 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> The market will struggle sideways for a few weeks before blowing off to the 6243pt level(which is the 0.618 retrace level) before heading south again. My target date for this high is 10 or11th of March. The price level is based of the confluence of 3 things:
> 
> •	Retrace of price from top to bottom
> •	Assuming we get a contracting triangle pattern blue wave b forming
> ...




Struggle is the operative word alright, but I'm still happy with that projection.

Started week on a downer, probably on (allegations of) fundies doing a bit of manipulation, but after that it got higher highs and higher lows again and consequently gave the down trend line a nudge but hasn't broken through yet. Might have the effect of extending the up kick a bit. 

With more news of market intervention here and abroad, to regulate the maverick institutions who fail to abide by conventional protocols and push the envelope, I think it will continue to have a steading effect minimising market downside, ie strongly doubt massive sell offs a-la 87 etc.

The weekly candle close has been still been above the 100% fib. Probably the most significant indicator this week is a likely crossover under the ADX suggesting continued subdued momentum generally sideways to up.

To me the P&F chart is still a little bullish. Interested to see motorways estimation and B%.

US holiday monday. We might go positive this time although the daily moves are a bit of doing the opposite to what you think the opposite of what you expect.


----------



## motorway (16 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Interested to see motorways estimation and B%.




I will post more commentary on this later

But I will put these charts up now

There is only 

*.* Price ---The range of each move ( wave of buying and selling )
*.* Volume----The quantity traded
*.*  Time-------As in the sense of duration--- how long

               and in the context of Positon

*.*  Position

OK ???

each wave of buying and selling  has a certain, price range, volume and duration.... and a certain position...

            Position is Prospect   

There four  things make up what Richard Wyckoff called the "four qualities"

and what reveals is the "character of the behavior"   of these four qualities

convergent/divergent but also  inharmonious and harmonious...

In context............Position is Prospect...


hence there is the trend and also the position in the trend.

the B% is a bottom up ( inductive ) map of position
it cycles between overbought and oversold

However we need the other three "qualities" to confirm that oversold is oversold...........

P&F is also a chart of positions..... on one axis is the price continuation ( trend ) on the other is price reversal ( risk )

P,V,T & Position... have various attributes



A 3 box reversal P&F I assume we have all seen .... The columns are drawn
by demand and supply... in this method of P&F   the top of a rising column is the last point of supply ( the last point of resistance ) the bottom of a falling column is the last point of demand ( the last point of support )

because it unfolds in it's own time ( hint time is only another name for motion )  it is non linear and adaptive....eg The Points of resistance are moving higher and lower as demand and supply curves shift and rotate ..



So what is called a double top buy signal is simply prices moving past the "last point of supply" ( it need not be a buy signal )

The B% charts every stock on the ASX as a 2% x 3 P&F and then charts the number as a percent that are above "the last point of supply"

So it is a calendar of "Position" ( With a good calendar, compass and map ? )

and Position in context is Prospect

so some charts.

B% and volume as a line chart

P&F as a 1.25% x 1 with some 45 degree trend lines ( reduced to see the whole cycle )

P&F again but just looking at the current action

( P&F and the bar charts will move at different speeds )...

"Secondary tops and bottoms"

on the way up above and then below the 45 degree trend
on the way down below and then above the 45 degree trend

B% is moving higher ( even though the index moved lower )

The 1 box P&F has narrowed ( demand and supply curves closer together)

The shape of the pattern from the bottom is strong ( called a recoil )

P&F also reveals harmony ( or lack ) between range and trend ( eg the count )

there is only P,V,T & Postion . You can either use them as tools for judgement
indications or as mechanical indicators ( even charts can used as indicators  )

The blue lines on the P&F are measuring the thrust of the waves...
( They and the move to horizontal )

motorway


----------



## Sean K (17 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> I will post more commentary on this later



So what's it telling us motorway? We're trending down?


----------



## nizar (17 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> So what's it telling us motorway? We're trending down?




LOL I dunno about you bro, but motorways posts above just went way above my head...

Can anybody offer an english translation?


----------



## korrupt_1 (17 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buffettology said:


> after its first low, it doesnt rally to form a high above the following highs, wouldnt this indicate it is NOT a descending triangle?




hi Buffettology

*scratch head* ... my understanding of a descending triangle is one that forms LOWER HIGHS... yet it bounces off a strong support line (in this case around the 5200-5250 zone) ... a break of this support zone will see much lower prices.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/descendingtriangle.asp




> Though I do note that the chart is over a VERY small timeframe.



The time frame is 2 weeks. I guess different traders trade to different time scales. Somes days I trade to monthly charts, others 1 second charts... it all depends i guess.. the price action for the last 2 weeks has been stagnating so I thought a chart for the 2 weeks would be an appropriate analysis of the current situation.




> Furthermore, wouldnt resistance be just above 5700 (as opposed to above 5750?).




A reversal of the down trend is what I'm referring to... feb 13 saw it just miss 5750.... also price action on the jan 28/29 saw much congestion around 5700-5750, however a break of 5750 led to higher prices... hence my analysis that a break of 5750 is a SAFER bet for higher prices - not 5700.

In summary, break 5500 on high volume will confirm a descending triangle and lower prices. Alternatively, a break above 5750 will likely see higher prices...


It's fun reading other people's anaylsis... you can read it from all sorts of angles and come up with as many conclusions but still, you end up exactly where you left it - the current price and a bowl of spagehtti


----------



## motorway (17 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> So what's it telling us motorway? We're trending down?




B% is the calendar..... We are in winter , but the shortest day is probably behind us ( That is the low ),,,But at this part of the curve the volatility will be high and chaos reigns..



> Winter is the beginning and the end. Death comes naturally
> only in winter. That is why survival becomes the name
> of the game. People are anxious, confused, and frustrated,
> and explore new directions. During the chaos of the winter
> profound changes take place.




But all things are never EQUAL.... people work hard to survive hence consensus projections , projections are Not prospect, they are useless as predictions , are always wrong at extremes....The safe bet is always the end of the world is NOT nigh...



> Winter is the most
> difficult but also the most fertile season. Despite low morale,
> innovation and creativity are at a high.




The whole cycle P&F show all the seasons



> ALTERNATING BETWEEN GROWTH AND CHAOS
> A naive but illuminating model for the alternation between
> order and chaos is the image of an elderly person who with a
> shaking hand tries to draw an S-shaped curve. While drawing
> ...




We are in a period of chaos.... The interaction between weak and strong hands causes the "fluctuations"

The B% reached an extreme low ( projecting it would have meant the end of the world or at least a world ) , so a move up was very likely.( look at the previous posts ). ( Postion is Prospect )...
B% ( as said before ) quickly moved to bull alert, bull confirmed and into bull correction....It is moving up after a test....With volume in harmony ( Volume is still high on the down waves  though )

That move up from the extreme point was a strong "recoil"  
and is consolidating in a sideways extension as demand and supply curves come closer together ( liquidity is building at the bid offer spread after it had ''vanished" )

I still want to see the B% move to 50% ( That could happen very quickly because the point of resistance is lower eg BHP is not above that point, but very close to it now )

I want to see the volume subside on any down waves...

A classic use of the B% reading at present is to buy strong relative strength stocks and those with very clear ending action already confirmed ( those stocks leading the waves ) and/or tighter  risk management ..

Depends also on your time horizon too



> Turbulent markets occur at cycle extremes when, as a result of offsetting cycles, StrongHands and WeakHands are at cross-purposes.





How strong are Your HANDS ?

This is also another way of stating Position Vs Projection..
strong hands are buying from a  strong position
weak hands are selling on scary projections

The higher volume suggests some more sideways
with bias to moves UP

USA is not Japan.... the USA will quickly find another bubble to get excited about..

Interesting article in the Fin Review on that point..




> Every upward or downward swing in the market, whether it amounts to many points, only a few points, or fractions of a point, consists of
> numerous buying and selling waves. These have a certain duration;
> they run just so long as they can attract a following. When this
> following is exhausted for the time being, that wave comes to an end
> ...




There is only the P,V,T & Position -------of those waves !
look at the large Scale P&F 
Just get in harmony with those seasons

It is still Winter ... sitting on the sidelines is OK.
But not too long ... because the explosive growth comes in spring.
In Winter the hard work is being done ( The future stars ).


The earlier quotes are from Theodore Modis , AN S-SHAPED TRAIL
TO WALL STREET ...



> So what's it telling us motorway? We're trending down?




whatever it is telling us....It is a test and then we see the response..

Poor response then , that tighter risk management comes into play...

It is a study of responses ( the green writing )

I think We have seen the low atm...


For Discussion only 

motorway


----------



## korrupt_1 (17 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting read Motorway...

I had to read it about 5 times to understand 

Can I summerise? You are saying that the worse has passed? But we're still in for a bit of dark gloomy winter days still? however, just be ready for some explosive rallies to higher prices?(ie the coming of spring.)

If the worse has passed, and the low has been made (or the shortest day), then   does that mean we can expect to be in a bull market again very soon?

What line of analysis is that where you compare stock markets to the season? I've never heard of this before until now?


----------



## Buffettology (17 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> It's fun reading other people's anaylsis... you can read it from all sorts of angles and come up with as many conclusions but still, you end up exactly where you left it - the current price and a bowl of spagehtti




ha ha, very true.

Just something to think about:

"Upper Descending Trend Line: At least two reaction highs are required to form the upper descending trend line. These reaction highs should be successively lower and there should be some distance between the highs. If a more recent reaction high is equal to or greater than the previous reaction high, then the descending triangle is not valid."

Note the last scentence, in your graph, there appears to be a reaction high that is LOWER than the final two that follow.....though, there are two reaction highs at the end of the charting period, which alone can be used.  However, not sure if the timeframe is long enough.........


"Duration: The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months, with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months."

As you say, the lows are higher also, so I just dont think its a very strong signal at the moment, but thats most definately just in my humble opinion.

Cheers


----------



## motorway (17 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Interesting read Motorway...
> 
> I had to read it about 5 times to understand
> 
> ...




There are seasons to everything
minds think in straight lines to their peril

again Position Vs Projection

There are four phases of a market campaign...

A B% chart is a type of chart called a "trend barometer"

( wyckoff devolped his in 1916 )

It is the divergence between it and the other "qualities" that make it useful .

In the old times on the shortest day of the year .. There was a solstice festival to remind everyone that the "good times" were soon to come back

else people would panic as if the trend would continue ( thinking  in straight lines )... however You could only have a festival if you had a calendar, a barometer....


some more from Modis 



> I have divided the natural-growth cycle into segments and
> used the four seasons as a metaphor. Winter reflects the critical-
> growth period encountered during the beginning and the
> end of a natural-growth process.
> ...




Old age wisdom. All new again.....

Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, Markdown

Seasons.....

The only thing causing me to be cautious is the short time we have been in winter..... Yet the P&F says enough "work" has be done

But remember the shortest day is not the end of winter it is only in the first third..

Important point!



motorway


----------



## chops_a_must (18 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's winter is it?

Geez... I could have sworn it was otherwise. Must be all that linear thinking.


----------



## CFD (18 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I always think what a great shame it is when someone of far greater knowledge and understanding than mine goes to such time and effort to explain their views, only to be met by curt one liners.


----------



## lioness (18 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Chops, you would be better off trying to learn from motorway, rather than displaying your sarcasm.  Please refrain from those cheap one liners, they are putting the whole forum off.


:microwave


----------



## chops_a_must (18 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CFD said:


> I always think what a great shame it is when someone of far greater knowledge and understanding than mine goes to such time and effort to explain their views, only to be met by curt one liners.




It is after all the XAO analysis thread, yet a seasonal analysis and winter solstice is used as a point of reference. I do not know whether different types of seasonal analysis works, but have read you are much better off buying into the aus market after october, and selling in may, historically.

And I especially have a problem with using a winter solstice as a reference point, because after all, it is the summer solstice somewhere else. So couldn't "winter" analysis be the same as "summer" analysis? So any comparisons between the two extremes are thus nullified and void.

If P&F shows all of the seasons, does it show Autumn, Spring, Winter, Summer all at the same time, and all at the same time as hot and wet, and cool and dry?


----------



## Whiskers (18 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

 

Chops the seasons are used metaphorically to relate the rythem of the market. It has no relation to the natural seasons, especially not time wise. 

PS:

cycles of the market is probably a better word.


----------



## Porper (18 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CFD said:


> I always think what a great shame it is when someone of far greater knowledge and understanding than mine goes to such time and effort to explain their views, only to be met by curt one liners.




When people don't understand something they either ignore it, ridicule it or try and be clever.

Other people just like the sound of their own voice.

I am sure a lot of us don't understand all of Motorways posts, but the effort and knowledge he has is second to none on here, and if we can take a little bit on board each time it has to be good.


----------



## chops_a_must (18 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Chops the seasons are used metaphorically to relate the rythem of the market. It has no relation to the natural seasons, especially not time wise.




I know that whiskers.

I was just trying to convey that one person's summer is another's winter etc. etc. 

I just have a personal gripe with post-modernist metaphorical and analogous argument constructs, because far from being opposed to linear thought as proposed above, they hide cognitive bias. Which can be seen in the argument, "there are four phases of a market campaign", and there are also four seasons, so we equate them. But we know there are not 4 seasons, depending on where you live. So the bias there is quite obvious.

Just for fun.

Cheers.


----------



## motorway (18 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> I was just trying to convey that one person's summer is another's winter etc. etc.




Ask Centro shareholders if it's winter ( or tricom etc margin loans ! credit bubble ) the signs of Winter are everywhere..

Winter is winter... I gave a definition in the post

It does not matter what someone thinks (post-modernist metaphorical and analogous argument constructs )

Winter is still winter

I defined it thus 







> Winter is the beginning and the end. Death comes naturally
> only in winter. That is why survival becomes the name
> of the game.




when the B% hit 6.6% and then volume surged

The difference between those stuck or  trapped in a linear mode
and those not was very clear


Just as winter is a reality
so is accumulation ..
You can think what you like (post-modernist metaphorical and analogous argument constructs )... But that won't change a thing

one thing that has struck me as I have posted the B% ( since the August correction) is how real and useful it has been...

The seasons are a useful analogy as Modis states



> The seasons metaphor is not used for poetic reasons. The
> advantage over more traditional segmentations is that our
> familiarity with images and mechanisms associated with nature’s
> four seasons can shed light and guide us through
> ...




A definition of the real is what works
pretending winter is summer
does not work

The B% is objective  It does not matter what you think

If it is 6.6% and volume surges and prices move up
that is a useful measure of reality..

For those who were selling it did not matter what they thought..

Real things are like that..


I think Theodore Modis would laugh about being equated to  post-modernist metaphorical and analogous argument constructs ...


motorway


----------



## theasxgorilla (18 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> The safe bet is always the end of the world is NOT nigh...
> 
> USA is not Japan.... the USA will quickly find another bubble to get excited about..
> 
> ...




Couldn't agree more on both counts.  Can't help but get the feeling that we're just waiting for a WorldCom and an Enron, and then a long enough period of time for the global finance players to find new opportunities and start trusting one another once again, and then we're off again.

Will we see another low before that time arrives?  If I cast my eye back to the softer patches in the history of the XAO, even when it's bearish it tends to bounce along, as opposed to utterly falling out of bed.  You could be right...for the short to medium term that most recent low may remain in place.

Thanks ever so much for some sobering analysis.

ASX.G


----------



## theasxgorilla (19 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Treefrog has posted up some information regarding Market Indicators, in particular the B% covered by Motorway here.   To give discussion of these indicators the focus they ultimately require, and to preserve the flow of discussion on the XAO thread I've given them a new thread here:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9957

Thanks,

ASX.G


----------



## treefrog (19 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Treefrog has posted up some information regarding Market Indicators, in particular the B% covered by Motorway here.   To give discussion of these indicators the focus they ultimately require, and to preserve the flow of discussion on the XAO thread I've given them a new thread here:
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9957
> 
> ...




A bit disappointing you bumped those ASX.G - posted them here because I think most following this thread were hard put to readilly understand what motorway is going on about and some clarification in plain speak was needed


----------



## austek (19 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Don't feel disappointed tree frog, those of us who need clarification perhaps 99% of us, are quite capable of clicking over to the thread .

I for one appreciate the clear & precise explanation given, and will reread motorways comments to see if we get some hint of where this places the ASX
right now.

The more skilled traders in this Country seem to be evenly divided of whether our market is bullish still or the bear market has started.

Even if we are not in a bear market right now, we must be on the verge.


----------



## austek (19 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Meant to say, the skinny ledge forming on the XAO is making me nervous.  
Although I am trading still this market as a bear market rally.


----------



## korrupt_1 (19 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

wow... almost perfect range trading! look at it bounce off the trend lines!

Symetrical triangle forming... where will it go next?

Was disappointed that it didnt go higher than 5700 this morning. That would have been a good sign that bears are coming back....

I'm not able to get volume information. Anyone able to post a chart with volume? (I assume volume is very low) 

Oh well... lets see where things go tonight... it's all up to the American's tonight... I might put a spec buy at 5550... with stop loss @ 50pts and targets at maybe 200pts (1:4 risk/reward )


----------



## MRC & Co (19 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sure does look like it Korrupt!

I have no volume either, my chart says the exchange provides no volume data.  

Either way the apex is mighty close and it appears past the 75% point already, obviously, it has to break one way or the other very soon!  

However, its estimated 75% break in line with the previous trend, so a downward breakdown looks more probable!  Not sure if that is a good thing or a bad thing at this present point!

But like you say, the US overnight is going to be the driving force, but if it goes up a reasonable amount, I think tomorrow we might get an upside breakout!  

And you mean if it broke 5700, a good sign the bulls are coming back?


----------



## korrupt_1 (19 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> And you mean if it broke 5700, a good sign the bulls are coming back?




hehe.. sorry, the *bulls* are back in town if it broke 5700... but when 5850 is broken, i'd say the heard of bulls are back 



> However, its estimated 75% break in line with the previous trend




Also, I read in some text that the stronger the support line, in this case 5500-5550, the more explosive the break will be when it does go lower.

Yikes... could this be the beginning of what some here have been expecting as the 4700's as the ultimate low? I say... BRING IT ON AND GET IT OVER AND DONE WITH, so we can go back to 'NORMAL' (whatever that is)


----------



## MRC & Co (19 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I actually think we are more likely to see an upward breakout if anything (but as we already said, a lot comes down to the US overnight).  But hey, just my opinion.  

Good luck!


----------



## Kauri (19 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

some more possible bank news from tother side may have an affect/effect??  I thunk..
check out gold and the yen swaps... risk aversion??
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## treefrog (20 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The current market correction should be viewed relevant to the significant size and haste of the move itself.
Enthusiasm for the return of the bull market is premature: just look at the weakness in the bull's weekly efforts since Nov 07. Of course there will be UPward blips - even significant exhaustion breaks. 
Taking the weekly over the last 15 years and applying the linear regression line over the last 10 and last 15, we are sitting on the 10 now (ie where we should be taking into account all the price action of those 10yrs) with the last few weeks telling me obviously more downside coming to return us to the 15yr LR line
And as the market is prone to over react, I love the confluence of the 10yr 50%fib with the 38%fib of the 15yr and reackon if the teddybears' picnic continues we will see at least a significant bounce from that (ie the 4800 level).
PS  Y axis log scale irrelevant to both fib levels and linear regression lines


----------



## korrupt_1 (20 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I guess there are two lines of thought to help us through this fog of war with the SPI... Technicals or Fundamentals.

I agree that Technicals say that 4700's is a real possibility in this current market shake up, however, going by Fundamentals, in the last few weeks, there has been some real big bomb shells dropped that had this news broken in Nov/Dec 07, it would have seen the SPI drop significantly more - however, the market's reaction to this news has been mild and almost expected.

I'm wondering what level of Fundamental news would it take for the SPI to dump from 5600 to 4700's (900 points!!)? The US confirms that it's in a recession?


----------



## treefrog (20 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> I guess there are two lines of thought to help us through this fog of war with the SPI... Technicals or Fundamentals.
> 
> I agree that Technicals say that 4700's is a real possibility in this current market shake up, however, going by Fundamentals, in the last few weeks, there has been some real big bomb shells dropped that had this news broken in Nov/Dec 07, it would have seen the SPI drop significantly more - however, the market's reaction to this news has been mild and almost expected.
> 
> I'm wondering what level of Fundamental news would it take for the SPI to dump from 5600 to 4700's (900 points!!)? The US confirms that it's in a recession?




wonders how many fundamentalists are factoring in the $A rise to parity - can't say I've noticed a lot of co's adjusting their forecasts for it - they simply have not / did not accept it was happening.
Many forecasts still appear based on the US$/$A exchange of 76c so future earnings may need to be adjusted up to 20% for some.
Of course, all co's are affected differently by the exchange rate changes - some even benefiting


----------



## motorway (20 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> (ie where we should be taking into account all the price action of those 10yrs) with the last few weeks telling me obviously more downside coming to return us to the 15yr LR line
> And as the market is prone to over react




Why should we be ?

The move since 2003....

Has it been the  increase in stock prices that has led people to believe there is a commodity boom ( and hence the move is a bubble that will burst and take prices back down to "where we should be"  eg like the tech bubble)

Or has there been a "real fundamental"  shift , a real commodity boom that is underpinning the positive sentiment
and so the price rises since 2003 have been warranted .



> the market is prone to over react




true .. But what is the real action and what is the (over ) reaction..

Depends on time scale.... ... But I think on time Scales that matter to investors ..

It is the current reaction that is the over reaction...........

This is esp the case with the XAO. I think other markets are differently placed.


bubble dynamics are often in play  when prices grow greater than at an exponential rate ( so you see log charts that look like arithmetic charts usually do  )................

I think our market is naturally caught up in a bit of contagion ..
It stopped going up and that always catches people out so a bit of unwinding..

But there is no bubble to burst..only some resting and  a bit of a step back ( Which is not good  if you have  very large margin loan etc )

No Bubble is an important point..




Thoughts for discussion

motorway


----------



## Whiskers (20 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> The current market correction should be viewed relevant to the significant size and haste of the move itself.




Gee treefrog, for a moment I thought you got my notion of 'proportion' that I mentioned a few weeks ago to allay fears of any similarities to 87 etc... but not quite.



korrupt_1 said:


> I agree that Technicals say that 4700's is a real possibility in this current market shake up, however, going by Fundamentals, in the last few weeks, there has been some real big bomb shells dropped that had this news broken in Nov/Dec 07, it would have seen the SPI drop significantly more - however, the market's reaction to this news has been mild and almost expected.




I'm in agreement there korrupt, it will take some shocking news to cause a big drop. I reckon a short mild resession is pretty much factored in. 

I like wavepickers point in the EW thread that first of all it's important to try to get a feel of the general trend and for me that includes a feel for the underlying value of the market. 

Motorway, we use different tools, but so far I can't fault your commentry.

For me, the XMJ is doing well getting back up there. All we need is a bit of time for the financial to flush out the last of their surprises, cos I think that is what is basically holding our market back... uncertainty about what some companies are prepared to disclose. That will probably come with the march qtr reports.


----------



## IFocus (20 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO closed on it low, volume not giving to much away but did edge up a bit, seems plenty of price rises for resources could not hold the market up. I think we will move down from here.

Tomorrow looking to me to follow though down... but we are still in the buy zone from 31-01-08 so a bounce wouldn't surprise.

Seeez where the stock for a each way bet? 

Focus


----------



## treefrog (20 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Gee treefrog, for a moment I thought you got my notion of 'proportion' that I mentioned a few weeks ago to allay fears of any similarities to 87 etc... but not quite.




hmmmmm, sarcastic and quoting out of context - not sure I understand your purpose whiskers, but then maybe its the blinkers you have on that limits your perspective


----------



## Whiskers (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> hmmmmm, sarcastic and quoting out of context - not sure I understand your purpose whiskers, but then maybe its the blinkers you have on that limits your perspective






Not sarcastic at all, treefrog. Simply mentioning that for a moment, from your first line, I thought we might be on the same wave length re proportion, ie the extent of the market move relative to where it was. But as I read on... not quite, ie my interpretation of proportion, although it does include fibonacci, in the larger picture for 'proportion' analysis it is only in the early part of my analysis and in different context that you use and I use deviation rather than regression lines which according to my analysis puts the XAO just above the 50% fib retracement from the 4th Feb high which 'coincidently is also just below the long term (18 yr) standard deviation line on the log chart. 

Not sarcasm or critism, just different methodology.


----------



## korrupt_1 (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Geeze... what a night of sheer panic and excitiment!

since the compression of the trading range, one would had to have a guess at which way it would break... up was what most of us were hoping for... but Technicals said down was the more likely scenario... (ie symetrical triangle formation, price will break in the direction of the larger trend - in this case down)

But then.... after the dumping... RSI levels we're low and one would have speculated a bounce of some sort...

I'd always say... TRUST THE TECHNICALS and GO WITH THE TREND!!


----------



## motorway (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Geeze... what a night of sheer panic and excitiment!
> 
> since the compression of the trading range, one would had to have a guess at which way it would break... up was what most of us were hoping for... but Technicals said down was the more likely scenario... (ie symetrical triangle formation, price will break in the direction of the larger trend - in this case down)
> 
> ...




And the Volume ?

Where is the highest Volume on the chart ?
What was the result ?

is the trend really down ? atm

motorway


----------



## korrupt_1 (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> And the Volume ?




You are absolutely right... Price movement WITHOUT volume don't mean squat... only MOVEMNT + VOLUME will provide good indication of the market's sentiments...

So my next question.... where do you get volume information from? My provider (IG Markets) doesn't have that information.


----------



## treefrog (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kengaikl said:


> All this talk of a market crash is truely mad. The market hasnt been this cheap in 18 years. The PE 's are below the long term average and if im not mistaken through out history sharemarket crashes occur when PEs are in their high 20's to 30's. World markets seem to have fallen more than the US markets where all the problems are coming from. People should just get over it, so what if the US slows down. The 97 asian financial crisis had a bigger impact to Australia and yet we were able to pull through.




rules 1-10 in trading any timeframe ken
never let emotion get in the way of "seeing" what is actually happening and trade accordingly as the market is never wrong - irrational, stupid, etc etc but never wrong, and that is because the market is judge jury and executioner

I head much the same said about the Oz banks several weeks ago - and at the same time the observation that Oz banks didn't know how much they were exposed to the US mess: "but not much" was the banks response.
recent announcements by the banks that they are exposed "but not directly very much" have been dribbling out since and will I suspect for a few months yet


----------



## gfresh (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

2pm swan dive again.. 

co-incidence? doubt it...


----------



## treefrog (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

still rangebound but some nice runs as the mini bulls battle the mini bears


----------



## MRC & Co (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Geeze... what a night of sheer panic and excitiment!
> 
> since the compression of the trading range, one would had to have a guess at which way it would break... up was what most of us were hoping for... but Technicals said down was the more likely scenario... (ie symetrical triangle formation, price will break in the direction of the larger trend - in this case down)
> 
> ...




Yeh, this is just craziness hey!

You know what is really starting to FUKC me off, is that it doesnt matter if you look at individual stock trends, the XAO trend or what, when it comes down too it, its probably better to study the trends of the US index ATM!  Just when it looks like its gonna breakout, the US falls, then as it looks like its gonna breakdown, the US rises!  

Lot of information to take into account at the moment, which really makes it very hard indeed, if not impossible and throws my philosophy of "keeping it simple" out the window!

All I can take from this is one should have been:  Going long on gold equities which reflect the underlying commodity and shorting the sh*t out of the banks!  Only real things to do when the market hits such instability (due to a credit crunch) and inflation rises!

Really hard to make sense of much at the moment!


----------



## josjes (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes, study the trend of DOW and FTSE. Where they lead we follow. At the moment, market is basically being driven by one factor. The fate of the Monoline Insurers/Bond Insurers, ie. MBIA AMBAC and the like. 
Where these company shares price lead, Financial follows. Where financial leads, the whole market follows. Last night MBIA closed up 4%. So it looks like market is placing bet that short term wise, there will be satisfactory solution at least. I will place my 'bet' on the market breaking the symmetrical triangle up north and we will get a nice rebound up for at least till mid-March. Until then the market will get a reality hit on the real issue of recession and concerted global growth slow down. Watch out for commodities in mid-March then.


----------



## roland (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I, for one, declare the market BORING. I've gone from having up to 6 trades a day to 1 a week - if that.

It's as much fun as fishing in a swimming pool...


----------



## Porper (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



roland said:


> I, for one, declare the market BORING. I've gone from having up to 6 trades a day to 1 a week - if that.
> 
> It's as much fun as fishing in a swimming pool...




Not sure how you see it as boring Roland, we are having wild swings at the moment, today on the ASX was good stuff for day traders, same as DOW last night.Having said that you need to be trading the Blue chips for the volume.


----------



## MRC & Co (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Not sure how you see it as boring Roland




Yeh, I actually find it exciting, a bit too exciting!  Im finding the hours I sleep per day are diminishing exponentially!  

Still beating the index, but my money would have been better served in the bank over the last several weeks  and thank god half of it was, until the last two days.............

Though, as most think, that their luck (I mean skills ), are going to turn around soon, ha ha, heres hoping!


----------



## chilliaa (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> wonders how many fundamentalists are factoring in the $A rise to parity - can't say I've noticed a lot of co's adjusting their forecasts for it - they simply have not / did not accept it was happening.
> Many forecasts still appear based on the US$/$A exchange of 76c so future earnings may need to be adjusted up to 20% for some.
> Of course, all co's are affected differently by the exchange rate changes - some even benefiting




Who really cares if the $A rises to parity, what does up will come down. I think its more important to look at the long term average rate of the $AU when doing fundamental analysis.  The rest is just market noise, at least for the long term fundamental investor.


----------



## treefrog (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chilliaa said:


> Who really cares if the $A rises to parity, what does up will come down. I think its more important to look at the long term average rate of the $AU when doing fundamental analysis.  The rest is just market noise, at least for the long term fundamental investor.



ILU cares (or maybe the shareholders who don't get a div care) with management blaming the high $A - one of many to come I fear:
down 14% today on the announcement after the market already factored in a 27% drop in the last few months prior to today's ann. - can't see how the LT fundies would be happy somehow
as I pointed out - this is significant and inadequately factored into many projected eanings, but hey, in a forum like this its OK to shoot the messenger.


----------



## Real1ty (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chilliaa said:


> Who really cares if the $A rises to parity, what does up will come down. I think its more important to look at the long term average rate of the $AU when doing fundamental analysis.  The rest is just market noise, at least for the long term fundamental investor.




Well considering the A$ is going to have a big effect on a large amount of Australian companies, i would suggest everyone would "care"

I don't believe it will get to parity, but i certainly won't be doing what you suggested and look at long term A$ averages, as we are not working with averages now or in the immediate future.

I take on board your point, for a long term investor, but even then, some consideration needs to be considered, as we are dealing with a very different scenario to what we have in the past, hence the averages are not quite as relevant as in the past.


----------



## roland (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Not sure how you see it as boring Roland, we are having wild swings at the moment, today on the ASX was good stuff for day traders, same as DOW last night.Having said that you need to be trading the Blue chips for the volume.




Well, it's boring 'cause I am stuck all in the red with no cash. My "wild" swings are generally 1 step forward and then 2 steps back. I'm not playing indexes because I haven't learnt how.

I'm just having to sit here and watch my holdings go sideways - guess I'm doing something wrong.

Just waiting now for some dividends so I can play again


----------



## Porper (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



roland said:


> Well, it's boring 'cause I am stuck all in the red with no cash. My "wild" swings are generally 1 step forward and then 2 steps back. I'm not playing indexes because I haven't learnt how.
> 
> I'm just having to sit here and watch my holdings go sideways - guess I'm doing something wrong.
> 
> Just waiting now for some dividends so I can play again




You are not alone Roland, it is extremely hard to make a profit in this market unless you are a seasoned trader and have been through this type of market before.Not many around.

Staying out of the market is a stategy i.m.o if things aren't working out.The good times of trend following will be back.Preserving capital is everything.Profits are a secondary thought and a bonus in times like these for most of us.


----------



## roland (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> You are not alone Roland, it is extremely hard to make a profit in this market unless you are a seasoned trader and have been through this type of market before.Not many around.
> 
> Staying out of the market is a stategy i.m.o if things aren't working out.The good times of trend following will be back.Preserving capital is everything.Profits are a secondary thought and a bonus in times like these for most of us.




Thanks for the comments, food for thought. I was looking good before the sub prime fallout, up about 40K for the year, now I am minus 50K. Just makes me feel stupid.

I do feel a little less stupid when I see my super, and my Colonial Managed funds suffereing just as much. Then, on the other hand, I could be even more stupid for having everything tied to the market.

Time to bring up the 100 year graph of the market to make it all seem worthwhile again.


----------



## chops_a_must (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



roland said:


> Well, it's boring 'cause I am stuck all in the red with no cash. My "wild" swings are generally 1 step forward and then 2 steps back. I'm not playing indexes because I haven't learnt how.
> 
> I'm just having to sit here and watch my holdings go sideways - guess I'm doing something wrong.
> 
> Just waiting now for some dividends so I can play again




There are still really good charts out there. Admittedly they are getting harder to find... but there are some. Lots of range trading and dip buying opportunities if you are into that side of things. Time to paper trade some different methods perhaps?

Anyway, back to the XAO... I don't know how you could see this as anything but a bear flag/ pennant at the moment. You would have to expect some kind of big move from here either way though surely.


----------



## Porper (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



roland said:


> Time to bring up the 100 year graph of the market to make it all seem worthwhile again.




Know how you feel, my super is abysmal but with well over 20 yrs to retirement, we should be ok, feel for those that are retiring now though.

100 year graph will look good 

By the time we are 150 yrs old this will seem like a correction the size of a pin head .


----------



## treefrog (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> ILU cares (or maybe the shareholders who don't get a div care) with management blaming the high $A - one of many to come I fear:
> down 14% today on the announcement after the market already factored in a 27% drop in the last few months prior to today's ann. - can't see how the LT fundies would be happy somehow
> as I pointed out - this is significant and inadequately factored into many projected eanings, but hey, in a forum like this its OK to shoot the messenger.




add STO to the A$ casualties


----------



## wavepicker (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Following on from the analysis in the following posts:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258028&postcount=2843

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258028&postcount=2843


Back then is was assumed Fixed Cycle point red 5 was completed on the 7/2/08. The markets have meandered sideways since then putting in a minor false break low yesterday and as such cycle point red 5 was yesterday. (Unlike the US Indiced whereby this came when expected)

There was slight error in the spacing between the yellow and green lines on the right hand side of the fixed cycles chart. As such the high(red cycle point 6) expected in approx mid March, should have actually read 20-25th March.

Also because the market is trending down, the low came slightly later compared to when the market was in an uptrend and the highs come slightly earlier. Ofcourse when the market is trending up it's the opposite, the highs come late and the countertrend lows come early. *This is known as left translation and right translation,* and must be taken into consideration doing such analsysis. For more info see 1st attachment below(from Walter Bresserts site)

In those last posts I made mention of the target dates, 10/11th March and 21 March. Nothing has changed, and although our approximate cycle point date for red 6 is now 20-25th March I am still banking on 10/11 March being crucial(as countertrends should finish early because we are now in a downtrend.) and also because the 11th March has cropped up everywhere I have looked in individual stocks.
*However still have 21st March as an alternate just in case it decides to go for another run. *

The EW chart in the second attachement is the XJO 8Hr chart. It is a zoomed up chart of the earlier analysis I made. In my opinion blue wave b finished yesterday and the market is about to have upward breakout. Three waves always unfould against the one larger trend. We have had an pink abc up from the 22/1/08 low which I have labelled blue wave a. A zigzag down pink abc with intervening pink wave b contracting triangle, these(contracting triangles) precede the last move in a sequence(pink wave c finishing yesterday) and the move down is usually a thrust usually the same height of the widest point of the triangle. I beleive that completed in the selloff yesterday.That then completes major blue wave b.


So where to now? In the initial analysis I mentioned a target of 6244pts. That was a probable choice based on a perfect squaring of both price and time (0.618 in price and in time from the high). In the current chart if we take the height of major blue wave a and add it onto the low we had yesterday(bluw wave b), we get a target of approx 6244 pts which is another confluence.

To answer chops question from the "Elliott Wave Analsysis Thread" of is the move down from the peak impuslsive(ie are we now in a wave 4?) ? I don't beleive this to be the case(but ofcourse admit that I can be wrong), however will stick with the current count above as the top count for now

Cheers


----------



## MRC & Co (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just a quick question wavepicker, wouldnt it be a better idea to do this analysis on the US indicies?  

Just looking at that symetrical triangle that is forming in the XAO (very close to the apex now, has to break one way or the other), but wont that break be determined by movements in the US?  I mean, if it goes up, we could see a breakout here, if it falls, we could see a breakdown? (though I aknowledge the graphs generally show some simlarity over the longer term).  

Cheers


----------



## korrupt_1 (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



josjes said:


> ... a nice rebound up for at least till mid-March... Watch out for commodities in mid-March then.




I recall reading a thread somewhere that says that *March 11th* is a keydate according to some 'way-out-there' technical study.... was something to do with Gann,Guppy or EW or something.... (??? )

So people... mark the week that March 11th falls on in your diary... could be wild times!


----------



## wavepicker (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Just a quick question wavepicker, wouldnt it be a better idea to do this analysis on the US indicies?
> 
> Just looking at that symetrical triangle that is forming in the XAO (very close to the apex now, has to break one way or the other), but wont that break be determined by movements in the US?  I mean, if it goes up, we could see a breakout here, if it falls, we could see a breakdown? (though I aknowledge the graphs generally show some simlarity over the longer term).
> 
> Cheers




have done the analysis on both the XAO and SP500. In fact most of the analysis links back to the SP500,and points to the same conclusion for both. It's not a matter of index following another. 

Tha market will what it has to do. The current medium term cycle is up till that March date(s). The longer term cycle is down till April(will show at a later time). When the TIME is up the trend will change.


----------



## MRC & Co (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> have done the analysis on both the XAO and SP500. In fact most of the analysis links back to the SP500,and points to the same conclusion for both. It's not a matter of index following another.
> 
> Tha market will what it has to do. The current medium term cycle is up till that March date(s). The longer term cycle is down till April(will show at a later time). When the TIME is up the trend will change.




Interesting, so much for decoupling huh!  

Thanks for that wavepicker, good to see someone actually put in some timelines, cant say I could possibly do it on my techniques, I just look for long-term fundamentals and go day by day as far as the technicals.  

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> I recall reading a thread somewhere that says that *March 11th* is a keydate according to some 'way-out-there' technical study.... was something to do with Gann,Guppy or EW or something.... (??? )
> 
> So people... mark the week that March 11th falls on in your diary... could be wild times!




March 11th and 21st I made reference to in an earlier post last week. Both are important but currently favouring 11th with 21st as alternate. Will have to weigh it up as time approaches, in which case wave structure(pattern of the trend) will give valuable clues)

21st March is also am important date with many Gannists

Cheers


----------



## josjes (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> March 11th and 21st I made reference to in an earlier post last week. Both are important but currently favouring 11th with 21st as alternate. Will have to weigh it up as time approaches, in which case wave structure(pattern of the trend) will give valuable clues)
> 
> 21st March is also am important date with many Gannists
> 
> Cheers



I favour March 11. March 21 is Good Friday. March 18 is the Fed meeting for a rate cut. The past 3 Fed rate cut, the market always in advance consistently rallied.  Following each meeting, there is a bearish pattern of lower stock-market highs which, after usually one more big bounce, leads to a lower low.


----------



## chops_a_must (21 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> To answer chops question from the "Elliott Wave Analsysis Thread" of is the move down from the peak impuslsive(ie are we now in a wave 4?) ? I don't beleive this to be the case(but ofcourse admit that I can be wrong), however will stick with the current count above as the top count for now
> 
> Cheers



Makes a lot of sense to me WP.

I thought we may have tested those previous lows at ~6200 on the sharp move up, but it didn't happen.

6244 is near enough to the 61.8 retrace I have of the total move down thus far. ~6150 is the 61.8 retrace of the "mug" count that I have. An ABC move from this correction would also get it close enough to these areas to be valid.

Any break down and I would favour the high 4700s personally.

But... I am net long... just playing individual stocks on their merits... so maybe there is something in that. A lot of key stocks on support, or near enough to, that I can't see a reason for them to go through. Either way, I'm prepared, as hopefully all are.

But thanks heaps for the detailed revisit, it is much appreciated.

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## korrupt_1 (22 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

     <-- this is how I feel about the SPI ATM...

Sorry for a completely useless posting... but I am really really !@#$%^&** with these wild 100+ point swings.. I mean what has FUNDA*MENTAL*LY CHANGED?


----------



## MRC & Co (22 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> <-- this is how I feel about the SPI ATM...
> 
> Sorry for a completely useless posting... but I am really really !@#$%^&** with these wild 100+ point swings.. I mean what has FUNDA*MENTAL*LY CHANGED?




ha ha ha ha ha, I feel you bro!  Its starting to get to me also lately! 

Infact, I am going on a holiday in about 5 minuets and will not be able to check the net for a few days.  

Hopefully I can keep to that habit and just ride it out from here-on in.  It starts to eat at you after a while, so much time and effort researching and selecting stocks, only to have the index turn on you and end up down either way!  

FundaMENTALS have well and truly gone out the window lately!  With all this credit crunch (stagflation) fear, and it is a very real fear, sentiment is driving the market!  Hard to even determine fundamentals in relation to individiual stocks ATM as future growth forecasts mean close to NOTHING!


----------



## GreatPig (22 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Struggling to break through the downtrend line, and the consolidation along 5600-ish is running out of room, so one has to give very soon.

GP


----------



## chilliaa (22 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> this is how I feel about the SPI ATM...
> 
> Sorry for a completely useless posting... but I am really really !@#$%^&** with these wild 100+ point swings.. I mean what has FUNDA*MENTAL*LY CHANGED?




Whats the matter|?|???
Since when did short term movements have any impact on fundametal analysis.  Either you are a trader or an investor.  But if you are an investor thinking like a trader you are going to get hammered

For fundamental investors this market is absolutely fabulous
Hehe the main purpose of a correction is to move assets back to their rightful owners


----------



## wavepicker (22 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Makes a lot of sense to me WP.
> 
> I thought we may have tested those previous lows at ~6200 on the sharp move up, but it didn't happen.
> 
> ...




I am net long as well chops, have been so since early this week. I know it's quite frustrating at present but have to hang in there. In actual fact it's actually quite good RR setup, with a stop marginally below the previous low of the sideways move. The XAO pattern is actaully quite skewed at this juncture due in part from the bank weakness.  The US Indices give a much clearer picture IMO with some good EW contracting triangles in the cash market data see below both in the DJIA and SP500. They look like they will resolve within the next 2 sessions. Triangles form because the market is waiting for something to give it direction, usually associated with news. Perhaps as josjes mentioned, the fed may come out with something to give the markets some stimulus coming into the next meeting. Not sure could be anything!! That's why the best things to work with are the patterns. 

Still favour the a move north to complete the pattern before heading south again. This is a classic countertrend move and positioning correctly in the countertrend move completion is the best place to make $$. (assuming I am right about the wavecount that is!!)To me the termination of the countertrend for a position on the short side is more important than the upward "thrust" that precedes it, even though that in itself will be quite tradeable


----------



## nikki (23 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi All,

Has anyone noticed that the XMJ not only established a higher low but is also about to rise above the lower high it set up before the downturn in january. 

Does the bullishness in this index say anything about where the XAO may head? 

Cheers to all -


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nikki said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Has anyone noticed that the XMJ not only established a higher low but is also about to rise above the lower high it set up before the downturn in january.
> 
> ...




The biggest sector in the XAO is still the XFJ. BHPs (& a few others)run last year masked the weakness in the XJO. Most stocks had stopped going up after the April 07, then went nowhere to down. 

Its the banks/Fins that move the XAO/XJO. The XMJ lead higher into the end of December last year. And look where we are. We really need a broad rally in the Financials to move the XAO. With them having been hammered lately the chances of a snap back are on the cards. Its probably the test after that that will count for the rest of the year.


----------



## chops_a_must (23 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> I am net long as well chops, have been so since early this week. I know it's quite frustrating at present but have to hang in there. In actual fact it's actually quite good RR setup, with a stop marginally below the previous low of the sideways move.
> 
> Still favour the a move north to complete the pattern before heading south again. This is a classic countertrend move and positioning correctly in the countertrend move completion is the best place to make $$. (assuming I am right about the wavecount that is!!)To me the termination of the countertrend for a position on the short side is more important than the upward "thrust" that precedes it, even though that in itself will be quite tradeable




Yah. Like I said previously, there are a lot of key stocks sitting on support or so it looks. Just going through the charts again today, a lot look like potentially breaking out, rather than down. So the common sense approach is to buy them, with stops below the support, and reverse if it does break. That gives the best r/r, which is what is key to your strategy in the extreme, I've noticed.

I don't trade indices on anything other than intraday timeframe, but my individual stock bias is influenced by the indices.

Agree with TH though. Materials, mining and a few others are giving bull signals, financials need to do something to move the market though. And even if they do, I still wouldn't go long them. In fact a lot of the materials look really incredibly and relatively strong, and just need a kick I feel. The financials may give that kick.

Will probably be waiting for ex-div time on the majority of these financials to get very short. Unless the market breaks down, in which case you'd be twisting my rubber arm to get short...

Cheers.


----------



## nikki (24 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Chops_a_must,  what are some of the stocks you talk about in your note. Just interested in studying them to see what you mean?

Cheers.


----------



## powerkoala (26 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

xao now at 5751.
high 5769.
breaking 5700 area and staying here.
does this mean bulls are back ?


----------



## korrupt_1 (26 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

another choppy ride today... still the upper resistance at around 5700 (XJO) is still impeding higher prices. One can hope (if you are long) that the massive gap made yesterday would be a nice support zone if the US does go through some profit-taking tonight...

also,... i'm starting to take the bull out of the cupboard now and let him run free.... have been noticing that the bad news lately hasn't really cause much more mayhem on the SPI...

A few weeks ago, it was a case of "ALL NEWS was bad news"... now, it's "BAD NEWS - isn't really that bad" anymore and "GOOD NEWS is actually good news?!!" Hey hey.... are we back to the gold old times of a bull market for the time being??


----------



## ShareIt (26 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> another choppy ride today... still the upper resistance at around 5700 (XJO) is still impeding higher prices. One can hope (if you are long) that the massive gap made yesterday would be a nice support zone if the US does go through some profit-taking tonight...
> 
> also,... i'm starting to take the bull out of the cupboard now and let him run free.... have been noticing that the bad news lately hasn't really cause much more mayhem on the SPI...
> 
> A few weeks ago, it was a case of "ALL NEWS was bad news"... now, it's "BAD NEWS - isn't really that bad" anymore and "GOOD NEWS is actually good news?!!" Hey hey.... are we back to the gold old times of a bull market for the time being??




hehe... I wish! I think there is more price manipulation going on at the moment more than anything.... I find it all amusing that everytime in the US the index is about to snap, some breaking news comes through (as we have seen on Friday and Monday)... someone is definately pulling some strings, one big bubble building up if you ask me


----------



## powerkoala (27 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

xao break 5800 area...
now at 5827... 
will this confirm bulls are back ??


----------



## korrupt_1 (27 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thought I'd share this 'hot tip'.... heard from someone that a (large) investment firm have some options that for them to be in the money, it will need to be >5800 (xjo) by expiry of options trading tomorrow...

Another something to mull over while you watch the SPI gets 'manipulated' and 'massaged' to some grand scheme that only the rich and powerful are privy too...


----------



## shaunm (27 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Thought I'd share this 'hot tip'.... heard from someone that a (large) investment firm have some options that for them to be in the money, it will need to be >5800 (xjo) by expiry of options trading tomorrow...
> 
> Another something to mull over while you watch the SPI gets 'manipulated' and 'massaged' to some grand scheme that only the rich and powerful are privy too...




hey korrupt,
Can you elaborate further as to what this may mean for the general market?
If they sell in the money what may happen?


----------



## korrupt_1 (27 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't fully understand option trading, but in general, for their options trade to be profitable, they need to have the XJO >5800 by expiry. It's like a binary bet that it will be +5800... if so, they make money, if not, they lose...

However, this is the twist... since they are a large investment firm (an overseas bank),... they can and will (if they can) manipulate the market to make sure that it does hit their target...

It's either that or their option trade is a hedge of some sort?

Another thing is, from what this person told me, this option trade was performed about 2 weeks ago when the XJO was around the the 8500's


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> However, this is the twist... since they are a large investment firm (an overseas bank),... they can and will (if they can) manipulate the market to make sure that it does hit their target...




One of the many problems with such theories is that there is someone else just as big on the other side of such trades if it exist.


----------



## MRC & Co (27 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Thought I'd share this 'hot tip'.... heard from someone that a (large) investment firm have some options that for them to be in the money, it will need to be >5800 (xjo) by expiry of options trading tomorrow...
> 
> Another something to mull over while you watch the SPI gets 'manipulated' and 'massaged' to some grand scheme that only the rich and powerful are privy too...




Well their options are still not ITM.  Would be if they were trading the all ords but they are trading the S&P200 right.  Plus depending on the premium they payed, it will have to hit above 5800 for them to breakeven and doubt a large investment firm would buy way OTM options in any kind of large quantity (so their premiums would probably be a decent amount), unless they had some HUGE news...........or wanted to play with their investors.........infact, I would think they would only buy large quantities of calls in a market like this if they were DITM.  Then again, I do not work in an options trading area of a firm.

Might well be some profit taking tomorrow, heck I know I made a handy 4% today overall, incredible!  That covers a couple weeks trading right there!  

But I do agree with the above posts, sentiment appears to be changing.  Bad news seems factored in already, so we might well see the bulls gain some power over the next little while.


----------



## numbercruncher (28 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

String of news out in the US Wednesday, probably all bad, Ben goes to Capitol hill and the USD hit an all time Low ....

Probably all a good mix for Red, so korrupts tip may end up in the money ! No use for looking for rationality out there It seems, just gotta trade with the sentiment I guess !~


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> I don't fully understand option trading, but in general, for their options trade to be profitable, they need to have the XJO >5800 by expiry. It's like a binary bet that it will be +5800... if so, they make money, if not, they lose...
> 
> However, this is the twist... since they are a large investment firm (an overseas bank),... they can and will (if they can) manipulate the market to make sure that it does hit their target...
> 
> ...




korrupt. I think this is just crap. February XJO & SPI options expired last Thursday(21st) not toda. There was not any unusual volume. today single stock futures expire and I don't see an large options trade over all 200 stocks being placed that would make you "Hot Tip" of over 5800 logical. This kind of stuff needs to be backed up with some evidence or I think its ramping. As the options have been taken out 1 week ago what you have stated looks WRONG. please provide some evidence of such hot tips or leave them out of a good thread.


----------



## wavepicker (28 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Following on from the analysis of the XAO was posted -090208

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258027&postcount=2842

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258028&postcount=2843

The following EW chart was shown with the expected pattern of trend shown by the arrows. The target was 6244pts and the date 11th March as the preferred time cycle count and 21st march as the alternate. 

So far the pattern of trend has traced out as expected and pink wave b of the contracting triangle has completed and pink wave c is currently in progress. These usually retrace 50-61% of wave c. Not much else has changed, this is a countertrend rally and should be fully retraced when it is complete and I expect market to continue on to fresh lows.

The SP500 has also a similar pattern of trend

Cheers


----------



## chops_a_must (28 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Following on from the analysis of the XAO was posted -090208
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258027&postcount=2842
> 
> ...




We are obviously going to get a retest of that breakout point. Any thoughts or targets if it doesn't bounce off?


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> We are obviously going to get a retest of that breakout point. Any thoughts or targets if it doesn't bounce off?




 retest is starting to look like failure


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dirty, Dirty day!  

Just no love for the banks, SPI bids are melting away. Looks like the melt down we had to have isn't over just yet.


----------



## IFocus (29 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes expanding volatility as we head south time to see if buyers step up this arvo or tomorrow as we head in to the buy zone again......


----------



## josjes (29 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This market is really testing the steeliest of nerves. You need to be half-brained impaired to be sticking with your conviction/plan. The EW chart in theory looks good, but I have doubts to see how this market can jump from 5620 to 6200 (10%) in the next 2-3 weeks. In a bull market yeah that's easily done, but we are in midst of bear market. For this to happen, there must be string of good news from financial sector to jump start this bounce. At the moment all I can hear and see are gloom and doom coming from the financials.


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



josjes said:


> You need to be half-brained impaired to be sticking with your conviction/plan. The EW chart in theory looks good, but I have doubts to see how this market can jump from 5620 to 6200 (10%) in the next 2-3 weeks. In a bull market yeah that's easily done, but we are in midst of bear market.




Weird enough the steepest rallies happen in bear markets. When it gets going there is no supply from above as most have been washed out. Nothing for the shorts to cover into and punters have a stack of cash to add more fuel to the fire.

With that said today the Bulls have a bit of work to do or its going to look like a failure.


----------



## Whiskers (29 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Yes expanding volatility as we head south time to see if buyers step up this arvo or tomorrow as we head in to the buy zone again......




Monday, I think you mean eh.

Yeah, it was getting into the over bought area a bit on Wed. 

Travelling in a bit narrower band than I thought it would, but I'm still expecting it to kick higher as you say late today or monday. 

Thinking, a bit further down the track with the next EW wave down, we'll probably get a bit of end of quarter jitters but I don't see or anticipate anything yet that will cause a severe downleg.

josjes, as I got plenty of crititism for on the immement and severe market correction thread, I don't think it will be as bad as some fear, mainly because Ambec and MBIA didn't get down graded as some expected.  Also China's economic iniatives look like lifting their local consumption to turnaround their reliance on exports and Indian demand for our resources still look good. 

As TH pointed out earlier the financial sector is what's holding the XAO back and I think that is out of distrust for what they are telling us. Once the March qtr reports are out there I think people will start to get a bit more confidence overall.


----------



## IFocus (29 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Monday, I think you mean eh.









> josjes, as I got plenty of crititism for on the immement and severe market correction thread, I don't think it will be as bad as some fear, mainly because Ambec and MBIA didn't get down graded as some expected.  Also China's economic iniatives look like lifting their local consumption to turnaround their reliance on exports and Indian demand for our resources still look good.





I think until all the bad news is out its just going to be chop plenty of cockroaches to come out yet I suspect, domestic= rising interest rates, rising inflation, add global financial chaos all I keep seeing is risk and rising gold prices!

Still the market will keep doing what it likes.......


----------



## MRC & Co (29 February 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> rising inflation, add global financial chaos all I keep seeing is risk and rising gold prices!




 

So buy gold!  Seems the most obvious investment out there ATM!  Though, I have been known to be wrong (but who hasnt)!


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> So buy gold!  Seems the most obvious investment out there ATM!  Though, I have been known to be wrong (but who hasnt)!




Really?? looks a little toppy to me. Although I have been known to be wrong


----------



## Kauri (1 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> So buy gold! Seems the most obvious investment out there ATM! Though, I have been known to be wrong (but who hasnt)!




Buy butter... cheese... milk... never forget the dream...
Cheers
............ miraka ma miere..


----------



## Whiskers (1 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> ............ miraka ma miere..




Ka mau tewhi. Tina pai Kakariki. 

Enei tangata matu korekau. 

Milk clear honey ? 

E ki, E ki? Ne ra?


----------



## Gurgler (1 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Buy butter... cheese... milk... never forget the dream...
> Cheers
> ............ miraka ma miere..




Kauri, please explain - for us non-kiwis. What dream are you refering to?


----------



## motorway (1 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For those interested

B% is now at 40.4%... ( remember it has come up from 6.6% )

The number of stocks rising above their last point of supply continues to increase quite steadily ( next week will provide very good test )

The last Bar sometimes I see Wyckoff Traders sometimes

refer to as a resurrection bar...

price did move down but then demand  moved up...
A number of other stocks ( eg BHP ) have signs of "absorption" at resistance
and look to be close to adding to the B% reading..



> Constructing the Technical Position Barometer is a quick task requiring no more than a day-by-day
> plotting of the total number of stocks in each position. ..........the barometer shows at a glance whether the number of stocks in certain positions are gradually
> increasing or decreasing. This becomes a significant clue to the growing strength or weakness of the
> market's technical position.






> As a double check of your conclusion about the market's position from the Position Sheet, compare it to
> an independent conclusion drawn from the trend chart of  averages------------------
> contradiction between the Position Sheet and trend chart ---- if it
> shows up, it's time to re-think some deductions.
> ...





motorway


----------



## motorway (1 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here is an example  of a stock in that 40.4%
and one that is not..


ABS gave a no vote in Aug 2007 near $7
and has never voted yes since

WPL gave a yes vote in Feb 2008 ( stocks "vote" only once when the switches occur )

motorway


----------



## Whiskers (2 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> For those interested
> 
> B% is now at 40.4%... ( remember it has come up from 6.6% )
> 
> ...




Good stuff motorway.

I was noticing something similar. The stockastic sometimes turning down a little with the market but the Williams% staying up.



> price did move down but then demand moved up...




Not an easy concept to comprehend let alone pick. Causes me a few late nights, when when the market is uneasy, sorting throught stocks.


----------



## IFocus (3 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just looking over DOW / S&P500 / XAO EOD charts, polishing the crystal ball, reading candles etc 

Currently XAO being affected by US sentiment..... 

Trend is down over all (deep that one I know) but the DOW and more so S$P threatening lower moves but both will be entering so called value areas.

All three show weakness on the 2nd minor peak after Jan low and the XAO will confirm this on a close below 5507 barring short covering / rally this arvo this could be today.

Trembling are we going for a rally today on the SPI?


----------



## Kauri (3 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

the dow looks suspiciously like a W4 to me... at the moment that is..   
Cheeers
..........Kauri


----------



## IFocus (3 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Drop in volume? buyers stayed out, shorts didn't cover, now we wait for the US


----------



## MRC & Co (3 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Drop in volume? buyers stayed out, shorts didn't cover, now we wait for the US




Yeh, I was hoping we would see a rally into the close.

Time to wait for the US as you say, which I think is odds on to see some kind of a fall (though I beleive not too dramatic).  

Only time will tell!


----------



## sam76 (3 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, I was hoping we would see a rally into the close.
> 
> Time to wait for the US as you say, which I think is odds on to see some kind of a fall (though I beleive not too dramatic).
> 
> Only time will tell!





Here a nice little futures indicator (it's in German though)

http://tools.boerse-go.de/index-tool/#Scene_1


----------



## josjes (3 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> I am net long as well chops, have been so since early this week. I know it's quite frustrating at present but have to hang in there. In actual fact it's actually quite good RR setup, with a stop marginally below the previous low of the sideways move. The XAO pattern is actaully quite skewed at this juncture due in part from the bank weakness.  The US Indices give a much clearer picture IMO with some good EW contracting triangles in the cash market data see below both in the DJIA and SP500. They look like they will resolve within the next 2 sessions. Triangles form because the market is waiting for something to give it direction, usually associated with news. Perhaps as josjes mentioned, the fed may come out with something to give the markets some stimulus coming into the next meeting. Not sure could be anything!! That's why the best things to work with are the patterns.
> 
> Still favour the a move north to complete the pattern before heading south again. This is a classic countertrend move and positioning correctly in the countertrend move completion is the best place to make $$. (assuming I am right about the wavecount that is!!)To me the termination of the countertrend for a position on the short side is more important than the upward "thrust" that precedes it, even though that in itself will be quite tradeable



The symmetrical triangle has been broken to the downside, this violates one of the 3 assumptions you have for this hypothesis of a strong bounce at 11 March. I think an update is called for.


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



josjes said:


> The symmetrical triangle has been broken to the downside, this violates one of the 3 assumptions you have for this hypothesis of a strong bounce at 11 March. I think an update is called for.




I think you have just provided it!!


----------



## motorway (4 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

some talk of "it's the seventies again " 

one thing seems  certain , cycles are speeding up..
But apart from that they are always the same ( only different  )..
And it is not just about the USA anymore...

B% increased again today

So ( If it is all about the USA ) here is the S&P then and now

or whenever ......



motorway


----------



## Whiskers (4 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> B% increased again today
> 
> So ( If it is all about the USA )




I'm also betting more bullish... beginning to think I'll not join the bears for a long while yet, mainly cos I'm not exposed to the financials.

I'm smelling another decent up-kick. Today in particular was oversold again with buyers standing back waiting for news.

The US ISM Factory Index just came in marginally better than forecast. While production and inventories were down a bit, new orders were only marginally down.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> The US ISM Factory Index just came in marginally better than forecast. While production and inventories were down a bit, new orders were only marginally down.





Whiskers, you turned into a fundamentals trader?


----------



## IFocus (4 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Todays XAO


----------



## wayneL (4 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ifocus,

You missed a very important technical point:

:


----------



## Whiskers (5 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Whiskers, you turned into a fundamentals trader?




Always been basically fundamental, TH. Just turn more to tech stuff when things get more choppy. 

Starting to worry or wonder about wavepickers EW preferred march 11 high though. If that is going to be a high, the following down leg is likely to shoot the bottom out of wayne's 'Oh **** zone' if we don't get a hell of an upleg asap. 

Unless they are only teeny weeny little waves! 

My thinking was and basically still is more of an 06 style sideways motion for a few months until we cleared out the financials worries, probably until after some march reports come out and or the $A eases back a bit. I'm thinking the strong $A is probably hurting our market more than all the internal US stuff. 

As I mentioned earlier I get the same sense of growing bullishness about the Aus market as motorway and for me with pretty good commodity prices holding up and expected to for the near future, I'm finding it harder to rationalise our market being held back for too long. I reckon our market is just waiting for something to 'click', to get us going again. Probably something like, so what if the financials are giving us the sk!ts atm, the resource boom will make that look like a blip on the past horizon. I wish I could put my finger on it.

Any chance the current EW count may extent much further, months, years maybe, before a major down leg?

PS: Wall street just about to close and done a lazerous again in the last hour. Maybe the problem is the size of the funds and PPT buggerising around the market and just confussing the life out of everyone.


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

First level for the Bears to defend today looks like 5460-5500 on the XJO. 
Looks like a close over there could lead to a reflex rally back to highs of recent consolidation, yet the Bears will probably still control the market. We really need a higher high. Something that the market just hasn't been able to achieve recently.

Would not be surprised to see today as an inside day(SPI high was 5463 yesterday) with a big move to come in a day or two. If I had to put 2 bob on it I would guess down. If we go up the bears will just dump on the rally and probably cause another lower high. Either way we have a high of 5750 from Feb 27th and a low from yesterday 5350 on the XJO as important points to watch for breaks.


----------



## IFocus (5 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Up dated chart for Wayne 

Looks like the sellers finished off the day....


.


----------



## wavepicker (5 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



josjes said:


> The symmetrical triangle has been broken to the downside, this violates one of the 3 assumptions you have for this hypothesis of a strong bounce at 11 March. I think an update is called for.




Sorry to let you down with the late reply, but I aint running a forecasting service here with a paid subscription. I offer only my opinion with some  probabilities of what the market might do, just like everyone else. There are no certainties, my views are NOT trading advice, sometimes they turn out OK and sometimes they don't.

With that aside, my EW count has NOT been invalidated YET, only *the type of pattern* I was expecting for blue wave b within major green wave b has been violated. That is why I have not updated yet. Refer may last post:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=265536&postcount=2967

"In that post I had as the preferred blue wave b pattern as a 'contracting triangle". Instead it appears we have a zigzag pattern in progress, and in the US Indices we might have flat corrections in progress. I can only try and call patterns based on the data available up to that time, once more data points are added and the patterns start to take a more recognizable shape, then better judgements and probabilities can be made. 


My primary date for a peak plus or minus a few days of 11th March to complete major green wave b seems highly unlikely at this point.(Them's the breaks unfortunately) BUT, the date of 11th March still appears it may be significant for something, the question is will it be a high or low or will it only be a minor wavelet?? That I can't answer at the moment.
I must say here that a forecaster you follow and made mention of to me  had a date of 3rd March and he has had to change his outlook.

So at this point the alternate date(mentioned in my last post) of 21st March plus or minus a few days(which was my least preferred option) for a high in green wave b might be a better chance for a termination. 
Unless of course I have it completely wrong and the market continues bearishly to new lows as anything can happen.



Trembling Hand said:


> I think you have just provided it!!




TH, that is typical of you to start sharpening the knives this early. You did the same in July of 2007 when I stated it was a high probability we were coming into a significant top, and a few days later the market had it's biggest correction for the year to your complete and utter surprise. Then you come up with your solution as to how easy it would have been to pick the market was about to tank with your homemade advance/decline chart (Hindsight is wonderful thing)

Since you are such an authority with your brillant track record over the last 7 years of your experience in markets, perhaps you can share some of your knowledge and trading prowess with the community of this forum instead of  nit picking what others are trying to share.


All the best

Wavepicker


----------



## osmosis (5 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I thought this article in The Age was quite poignant, if not a bit bleak.

http://business.theage.com.au/watch-out-below-is-the-best-investment-advice/20080305-1x15.html


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> TH, that is typical of you to start sharpening the knives this early. You did the same in July of 2007 when I stated it was a high probability we were coming into a significant top, and a few days later the market had it's biggest correction for the year to your complete and utter surprise. Then you come up with your solution as to how easy it would have been to pick the market was about to tank with your homemade advance/decline chart (Hindsight is wonderful thing)
> 
> Since you are such an authority with your brillant track record over the last 7 years of your experience in markets, perhaps you can share some of your knowledge and trading prowess with the community of this forum instead of  nit picking what others are trying to share.




Bloody hell. wavepicker you seem to be jumping at shadows yet again. I was not having a go at you, your methods, EW or your interpretation of EW. I was simply stating that josjes had answered his own question that the the triangle had broken to the down side.

As for the rest of the comments I can hardly be botherd with a response.


----------



## wavepicker (5 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Bloody hell. wavepicker you seem to be jumping at shadows yet again. I was not having a go at you, your methods, EW or your interpretation of EW. I was simply stating that josjes had answered his own question that the the triangle had broken to the down side.
> 
> As for the rest of the comments I can hardly be botherd with a response.




Fair enough apologize for the misunderstanding in this instance, but you have referred to Elliott Wave as "Idiot wave" in the past so please understand my "jumping at the shadows".


----------



## josjes (5 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Sorry to let you down with the late reply, but I aint running a forecasting service here with a paid subscription. I offer only my opinion with some  probabilities of what the market might do, just like everyone else. There are no certainties, my views are NOT trading advice, sometimes they turn out OK and sometimes they don't.



No offense WP, I was just stating that perhaps change of analysis or forecast is due now since we have a broken support.  Your view on the EW analysis is appreciated in this forum, well for me anyway, I am here to learn from other people experience.


----------



## Whiskers (5 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> My primary date for a peak plus or minus a few days of 11th March to complete major green wave b seems highly unlikely at this point.(Them's the breaks unfortunately) BUT, the date of 11th March still appears it may be significant for something, the question is will it be a high or low or will it only be a minor wavelet?? That I can't answer at the moment.
> I must say here that a forecaster you follow and made mention of to me  had a date of 3rd March and he has had to change his outlook.
> 
> So at this point the alternate date(mentioned in my last post) of 21st March plus or minus a few days(which was my least preferred option) for a high in green wave b might be a better chance for a termination.




Wavepicker, Just noticed 21st March is Good Friday and the 20th is the Autumn equinox (where are you trader paul) and of couse the US Fed is meeting between the 11th and 21st.

I certainly go with the significent period before easter, on current information a little high. That being anticipated, then some cooling off until after some local March qtr reports surface seems quite reasonable to me. 

The issue then becomes where art thou green wave c... so a flatter green wave c is possible?


----------



## wavepicker (6 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Wavepicker, Just noticed 21st March is Good Friday and the 20th is the Autumn equinox (where are you trader paul) and of couse the US Fed is meeting between the 11th and 21st.
> 
> I certainly go with the significent period before easter, on current information a little high. That being anticipated, then some cooling off until after some local March qtr reports surface seems quite reasonable to me.
> 
> The issue then becomes where art thou green wave c... so a flatter green wave c is possible?




Also Whiskers,

- from the low 22/1/08 to the high 4/2/08 was 8 fibonacci trading days

- the zigzag decline we had from 4/2/08 to today(5/3/08) was fibonacci 21  trading days

-from 5/3/08 to 21/3/08 will be another 13  fibonacci trading days

20-25th March period also coincides with another approximate medium term fixed cycle point.

Remembering also I had 11/03/08 as another significant date if we rally into this date it could mean a short pullback before perhaps heading to 21/3/08??

Makes for some interesting trading


----------



## Whiskers (6 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not gonna stay in that buy zone for long I don't think, ifocus.

Since being oversold for a couple of days, it looks like we should get clear of the intermediate down trend line (bold black) again and I think for good this time. 

The post Nov high down trend (red) is blending into the post Aug low sideways/uptrend channel very nicely. 

Also I can see plenty of room for wavepickers EW to trend in the blue channel for the time being.

Just like to mention also that yellow long term trend line has proved to be good support for the june 06 'waver' and the the 87 crash. That being said I'm not suggesting it's a universal support area... just when the circumstances are relevant.

PS: When I did my 'proportion' analysis, thats just the area where it calculated out.


----------



## korrupt_1 (6 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> .... the 20th is the Autumn equinox ...




Also, 20th is Options Expiry... Have noticed on Options Expiry days, sometimes prices get bumped around quite a bit - especially during the cross trade between 4-430pm.


TremblingHands: I have checked my dates on options expiry. In regards to this post: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=265174&postcount=2966

That call on the target of 5800 by an option trader was a total mistake in regards to dates...  i've explained to you in the PM and would like to clarify in this forum that sometimes mistakes happen... my credentials maybe questionable now, but hey... as they say, DYOR and 'hot tips' are what they are and needs to be suspicous of...

For the record, It seems that my source passed on information from someone else who had made 2 mistakes... 1) information was already 1 week old and 2) a mix up on Options expiry dates for index and single stocks are different. Honest mistakes happens... Such mistake should not have happened and if you DYOR like TH did, you'll pick it up... TH, If you want a pat on the back... you can have one...

I promise I wont post anymore 'hot tips'... i'll just keep them for myself next time.


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> TH, If you want a pat on the back... you can have one...




Well it would be a nice change from what I have been getting.


----------



## MRC & Co (6 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dont worry Korrupt, you made a mistake and learnt from it!  Your credibility is still fine with me!

I think Whiskers may be right at least in the short-term.


----------



## korrupt_1 (6 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

thanks mrc & co 

I count 4 attempts to crack 5460 (XJO) in the past few trading session... what a stubborn line to breakout of... the bulls needs to muster the heard to get past that.

Anyway... the lows are getting higher, so it's a good sign. Ascending triangle formation taking shape...  I think it's possible we may test the lower 5400's before this happens (as those long for the day cover back???)... but who knows... it may take a short cut and power past 5460 before EOD today...

My trading plan: go long on the break of 5460 - maybe wait for a pull back after the initial break. Look for a bounce off 5460 to confirm that it has now become a support level - and then enter the trade. Target would be 100pts.


----------



## sassa (6 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> it may take a short cut and power past 5460 before EOD today...




EOD-end of day or eve of destruction?


----------



## Whiskers (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> EOD-... eve of destruction?





Are you really that pessimestic sassa?


----------



## korrupt_1 (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

was so hoping that the ascending triangle pattern would hold for the short term and a breakout higher would occur... looking very bleak atm... SPI -70pts & DJI -200pts

EOD could indeed be eve-of-destruction


----------



## ShareIt (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> was so hoping that the ascending triangle pattern would hold for the short term and a breakout higher would occur... looking very bleak atm... SPI -70pts & DJI -200pts
> 
> EOD could indeed be eve-of-destruction




I believe so... The US has their key employment report coming out tommorrow Friday and anything bad (which I believe will be) is gonna see a major down globally.


----------



## Aussiejeff (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ShareIt said:


> I believe so... The US has their key employment report coming out tommorrow Friday and anything bad (which I believe will be) is gonna see a major down globally.




Yup. Unless the PPT announce a shocking and surprising 0.5 - 1% rate cut in the next 24hrs, the USS "Unca Sam" will likely list a further few degrees to port..... unfortunately, some of the crew who were supposed to be manning the pumps have abandoned ship and were last seen swimming rapidly towards Cuba.... 

Tis such a shame we can't seem to chop through the cable attaching HMAS "Oz" to the stern of the sinking USS "Unca Sam"....

Ahhh... let the good times roll, eh? 

Chiz,


AJ


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I guess the only thing the longs can hope for here is a higher low.  Which as I pointed out two day ago we just haven't been able to achieve. Until such time as a higher high or higher low there is no reason to think the long side is safe.

Something I will be watching for is a hard and fast afternoon recovery. Its in my 'what if play book' at the moment but I gotta say its way down the back of it. 

With Monday closed its going to be painful for long punters and the shorts have controlled the SPI for a long time, I'm not expecting them to give up now. Especially since the chances of some real mess occurring around 2 to 3 pm margin call time today.


----------



## ShareIt (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> With Monday closed its going to be painful for long punters and the shorts have controlled the SPI for a long time, I'm not expecting them to give up now. Especially since the chances of some real mess occurring around 2 to 3 pm margin call time today.




Just checked http://www.asx.com.au/about/operational/trading_calendar/asx/2008.htm and it seems Monday is open...


----------



## korrupt_1 (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

whats the go guys?

Break the lows of around 5300's and we're looking at the next support level of the lows made in late Jan of around 5170's????


----------



## IFocus (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Something I will be watching for is a hard and fast afternoon recovery. Its in my 'what if play book' at the moment but I gotta say its way down the back of it.




This afternoon will be interesting to see if we get a kick up late from the shorts who don't want to hold over the weekend (Nick Radges point).

If we don't then Waynes technical indicator on my earlier chart will come into play sooner rather than later.

Whiskers I think for any move up we have to smash through the 5578 area (over head resistance) which would then provide the rallies to be shorted again, in the mean time I expect more churn, primary trend is down.

The current little consolidation is likely to be a continuation point to move further down IMHO.

Lets see what happens this afternoon.


----------



## sassa (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The news from America was woeful last night-

"Today was the day the roof officially fell in on the US economy. News from Europe involving bank trouble at UBS (NYSE: UBS) and an inadequate rescue of Ambac (NYSE: ABK) helped push at least a half a dozen major financial stocks to 52-week lows.

The Fed then came out with news that is as bad as anything it has passed along this year. Americans' percentage of equity in their homes fell below 50 percent for the first time on record since 1945. 

According to the AP "Moody's Economy.com estimates that 8.8 million homeowners, or about 10.3 percent of homes, will have zero or negative equity by the end of the month. Even more disturbing, about 13.8 million households, or 15.9 percent, will be "upside down" if prices fall 20 percent from their peak."

On the heels of that news The Mortgage Bankers Association said that "proportion of all mortgages nationwide that fell into foreclosure shot up to a record high of 0.83 percent in the October-to-December quarter." The delinquency rate for all mortgages climbed to 5.82 percent in the fourth quarter. That was up from the 5.59 percent in the third quarter and was the highest since 1985.

Due to the price of oil staying over $100, gas prices are also moving up. The national average price of a gallon of gas rose 0.7 cent overnight to $3.185, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service.

For people who don't know what a recession looks like, this is it."

Douglas A. McIntyre
http://www.247wallst.com/

-and doesn't look like it will be much better tonight.Pessimistic Whiskers?Sure am.With credit markets tight and slowing worldwide spending,I am again out of the market and into fixed interest to recoup some losses.
The buyers to take a backseat today and wait for the news from the good old U.S. of A tonight?Iwould think so.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ShareIt said:


> Just checked http://www.asx.com.au/about/operational/trading_calendar/asx/2008.htm and it seems Monday is open...




Oh! Thanks just us slack Victorians having the day off.


----------



## waz (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Back in January we broke below 5500 and bounced up almost 500, today we have broken below 5300, does anyone think we will see a similar size bounce?


XAO is now at its lowest point since Oct '06


----------



## ShareIt (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



waz said:


> Back in January we broke below 5500 and bounced up almost 500, today we have broken below 5300, does anyone think we will see a similar size bounce?
> 
> 
> XAO is now at its lowest point since Oct '06




I think 5000 will be the bounce line


----------



## Kauri (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

a chart I posted a couple of months back.. (note that the levels are not important.. it is the psychology that is the point....)  
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## IFocus (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> a chart I posted a couple of months back.. (note that the levels are not important.. it is the psychology that is the point....)
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




Kauri I sort of understand Galah psychology but duck psychology I admit is beyond me.......


----------



## korrupt_1 (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i'm betting 5180 (XJO) will be the do or die line...  (Jan 22 low's)

Indicators are moderately oversold and a technical bounce cannot be rulled out... 

Watch out for the 2pm and 3pm movement... could either a) continue this downward spiral or b) a counter rally... if the counter rally gets momentum... there would be plenty of punters short covering lifting the SPI higher and away from doom and gloom... 

Feel sorry for those sorry buggers who are either margin called or are forced to liquidate... that reminds me.... if by 3pm, a trader who can't meet their margin calls... their positions gets liqudated right? That would put more pressure on the SPI yeh?


----------



## panikhide (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> a chart I posted a couple of months back.. (note that the levels are not important.. it is the psychology that is the point....)
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




Hi Kauri

I'm a little confused. Are you saying that your prediction is that after these 'steps' down on the XAO from the highs in November to the level we are at today will be followed a trip into the 'Eddy Groves zone' before a massive bounce that starts in April and continues until June, which is based on the collective psychology of investors?

Or is there something more to it?


----------



## IFocus (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



panikhide said:


> Hi Kauri
> I'm a little confused. Are you saying that your prediction is that after these 'steps' down on the XAO from the highs in November to the level we are at today will be followed a trip into the 'Eddy Groves zone' before a massive bounce that starts in April and continues until June, which is based on the collective psychology of investors?Or is there something more to it?





I think I can interpret, Kauri is saying if you are a duck laying on your back on the road you are "A dead duck"


----------



## IFocus (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

US EOD S&P500 from last night last candle is telling, note the move down from the circle area.


----------



## panikhide (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> I think I can interpret, Kauri is saying if you are a duck laying on your back on the road you are "A dead duck"




Really? I thought the attention might be on the mother duck and that the message was stay off the road, even if there is something on the road that you really want. Alternatively, maybe there is a right time to get what you want from the road and it's just a question of knowing when it safe to step out there.

Or maybe we shouldn't be using analogies to try to predict the market's direction.


----------



## Kauri (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

sorry.. this should clear it up a tad...



panikhide said:


> Hi Kauri
> 
> I'm a little confused. Are you saying that your prediction is that after these 'steps' down on the XAO from the highs in November to the level we are at today will be followed a trip into the 'Eddy Groves zone' before a massive bounce that starts in April and continues until June, which is based on the collective psychology of investors?
> 
> Or is there something more to it?






Kauri said:


> a chart I posted a couple of months back.. *(note that the levels are not important.. it is the psychology that is the point....) *
> Cheers
> ........Kauri


----------



## IFocus (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



panikhide said:


> Really? I thought the attention might be on the mother duck and that the message was stay off the road, even if there is something on the road that you really want. Alternatively, maybe there is a right time to get what you want from the road and it's just a question of knowing when it safe to step out there.
> Or maybe we shouldn't be using analogies to try to predict the market's direction.




Hi Panikhide
Please ignore my flippant comments just trying to engage Kauri's excellent humor


----------



## panikhide (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Hi Panikhide
> Please ignore my flippant comments just trying to engage Kauri's excellent humor




It's okay. I'm not taking it that seriously - just trying to (a) understand where he thinks the market is going and (b) have some fun with the duck logic (although I must point out that I do like my analysis about picking the right time to step onto the road).

Apologies to those who just want to focus on the XAO.


----------



## Whiskers (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> This afternoon will be interesting to see if we get a kick up late from the shorts who don't want to hold over the weekend (Nick Radges point).
> ---
> Whiskers I think for any move up we have to smash through the 5578 area (over head resistance) which would then provide the rallies to be shorted again, in the mean time I expect more churn, primary trend is down.
> ---
> Lets see what happens this afternoon.




Hang on for the whiplash this arvo! 

Anyone notice the US futures, fwiw this far out!

smash through the 5578... sounds good to me.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Hang on for the whiplash this arvo!
> 
> Anyone notice the US futures, fwiw this far out!




What about them?? They are flat.


----------



## Kauri (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



panikhide said:


> It's okay. I'm not taking it that seriously - just trying to (a) understand where he thinks the market is going and (b) have some fun with the duck logic (although I must point out that I do like my analysis about picking the right time to step onto the road).
> 
> Apologies to those who just want to focus on the XAO.




I don't usually go the prediction route, and actually don't trade the SPI... often... but for what it is worth I have been following this track for a whiles now.... 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> What about them?? They are flat.




Exactly, as I say fwiw... it's not a foregone conclusion that the route will continue tonight.

Yesterday there also seemed to be wide spread profit taking across precious and particularly base metals.


----------



## Sean K (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Would have to assume Wavepickers 11 March decision point will be a LOW.

2 trading days. Wonder if 4800 is possible?


----------



## tex.willer (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The laws of gravity applies even to the stock market ... With the fuel gone (cheap debt), so has the bull run.

Has anyone actually had a look at a weekly or monthly chart of XJO?


----------



## MRC & Co (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Would have to assume Wavepickers 11 March decision point will be a LOW.
> 
> 2 trading days. Wonder if 4800 is possible?




Could well be, or perhaps by the 22nd or there abouts...........?

Either way, I was only JUST in the red today, after being green for nearly two weeks.

So I will continue to hold tight and hope!

These next couple weeks are really going to be crucial with all the important data coming out.  Its make or break time, but if its bad, we may go down past 4800!

Anyone still shorting the financial sector?  It just continues to implode and generate cash for all riding this short trend all the way to the bottom!


----------



## MRC & Co (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> The laws of gravity applies even to the stock market ... With the fuel gone (cheap debt), so has the bull run.
> 
> Has anyone actually had a look at a weekly or monthly chart of XJO?




I would say its gone past that point, its like a black hole at the moment, nothing is escaping, defying the laws of gravity!  If you cant escape its gravitational pull, might as well ride it all the way to the end!


----------



## tex.willer (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

When ( not if ) the commodities bubble bursts, we will find out the true low of the market ...


----------



## IFocus (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Anyone still shorting the financial sector?  It just continues to implode and generate cash for all riding this short trend all the way to the bottom!




I missed getting on board SUN.......one of the better banking shorts.



> When ( not if ) the commodities bubble bursts, we will find out the true low of the market ...




Good point! Have been listening to Kauri's rumours where there is smoke......


----------



## korrupt_1 (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Too low to short... conditions are slightly oversold...
Too uncertain to long... medium trend is still down...

Tonight could be just as volatile as last night with the US Emplyoment report out 830am NY Time

http://www.econoday.com/clients/bas...ment_situation/year/2008/yearly/03/index.html

It's gonna either be: ,  or


----------



## IFocus (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Todays bar was a real crusher on a slight fall in volume, I have taken the buy zone box off the chart.......on to Waynes technical indicator


----------



## Awesomandy (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Too low to short... conditions are slightly oversold...
> Too uncertain to long... medium trend is still down...




And that makes us... sitting ducks?


----------



## sam76 (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*


----------



## MRC & Co (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Too low to short... conditions are slightly oversold...
> Too uncertain to long... medium trend is still down...
> 
> Tonight could be just as volatile as last night with the US Emplyoment report out 830am NY Time
> ...




Stick with the trend I say!

Keep the banks shorted and the precious metals and base metals long!  

Set tight stops.  Once the trend changes, get out and look for the next market/sector movement.  

Thats my method at least.  Pretty simple, but very effective so far.

See how we go, dont want to get too far ahead of myself and end up with my fingers burnt! 

Its this, or CASH!  Only two ways I see profitable in this market.


----------



## theasxgorilla (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> The laws of gravity applies even to the stock market ... With the fuel gone (cheap debt), so has the bull run.
> 
> Has anyone actually had a look at a weekly or monthly chart of XJO?




You bet.  Although I look at the XAO...it's an XAO thread after all.  Will mark up a chart and post it late on...time for work!

ASX.G


----------



## Bush Trader (7 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> When ( not if ) the commodities bubble bursts, we will find out the true low of the market ...




Couldn't agree more.  At the moment we have see a flight to commodities for cover, whaich has atrificially stabilised the quality stocks in the sector. It would be an interesting calculation to put the big two back at their Dec/Jan 07 levels of BHP $25 and RIO at $65 with their current weighting of the XAO index and see what number spits out.  I had a rough stab at it and I'm no professional but the number is aprox 4570.  Any thoughts.  Another methodology woulld be to take the two back to a forward P/E Ratio of 9 (which has provided good support in the past) and calculate the price and from there weight it against the effect of the XAO. Am I on the right track?


Cheers



BT


----------



## josjes (8 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Stick with the trend I say!
> 
> Keep the banks shorted and the precious metals and base metals long!
> 
> Set tight stops.  Once the trend changes, get out and look for the next market/sector movement.




Looks like the trend has started to change :
Last night US market, green lights on:

Financials up 0.3%, Regional Banking up 1.94%, REIT up 1.7%.

Red lights on:

Materials, Energy, Gold Mining shares dropped between -2-4%.
BHP/RIO dropped -3.2%
DBA (Soft commodities ETF) -4%


----------



## tex.willer (8 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

1 day doesn't constitute a trend change ...


----------



## MRC & Co (8 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> 1 day doesn't constitute a trend change ...




Absolutely.

But it was weird to see the banks rally!  Still, base metals held up queit well and the POG remained relatively stable.  Was set for a slowdown anyways after its recent run.  Next time it runs, 1000 is being cracked!


----------



## >Apocalypto< (8 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From what I have learnt from trading in the last 2.4 years is never call a spoon a spoon! as bad as something looks, is this right am I really looking at this picture from all angles??

From glancing at the 1day 5 year chart it's as plain as day we are more then correcting it sure looks like a bear market!

But I hate to be set in a direction cuz whenever I am it goes the other way!

What I can see on the 1 day 1 year is a descending triangle (bear cont pattern) broken with more down side to come Monday, the last support/cluttered counter rally area looks a lot like the one circled last year. Is this a set up to the last thrust lower? I will go out on a limb and say we could put in a new low. The spi did have a end of session rally that may hold it up a tad. I am no expert on using the spi to predict the xjo or xao so don't quote me. 

cheers
Joseph


----------



## IFocus (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Posting a Chart of the XMJ

Some may have noticed that RIO and BHP broke through support today....

Chart has ominous implications for XAO IMHO


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Posting a Chart of the XMJ
> 
> Some may have noticed that RIO and BHP broke through support today....




Don't mention the miners and down in the same sentence. :behead:


----------



## MRC & Co (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Don't mention the miners and down in the same sentence. :behead:




ha ha, yeh, technically, the miners are looking very very shaky!  Overnight will determine if this was just a whipsaw.  

Fundamentally, cant see anywhere else anybody would want to place their money......?


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> ha ha, yeh, technically, the miners are looking very very shaky!  Overnight will determine if this was just a whipsaw.
> 
> Fundamentally, cant see anywhere else anybody would want to place their money......?




Agree its still an each way bet technically. You could argue that they have put in a couple of lower highs since Nov 07(which is a down trend) but equally this could turn out to be a higher low since mid Jan (up trend)


----------



## MRC & Co (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Agree its still an each way bet technically. You could argue that they have put in a couple of lower highs since Nov 07(which is a down trend) but equally this could turn out to be a higher low since mid Jan (up trend)




Yeh, though in this instance, I would be inclined to look at intermarket analysis.  Downtrend in this current market is not an overly bad sign.  XMJ is based on equities afterall, needs comparison to both underlying material prices and broader index movements.


----------



## Nyden (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> ha ha, yeh, technically, the miners are looking very very shaky!  Overnight will determine if this was just a whipsaw.
> 
> Fundamentally, cant see anywhere else anybody would want to place their money......?




Well, that's a little silly (unless you're referring to placing within the market)

There seems to almost be a sentiment that the stock market is a must, & that one must *always*, & forever have stock market exposure ... which just isn't so :

People can place their money in term deposits, & high interest accounts over the short / medium term. One should not rely on commodities being the only "safe" place left to invest in ... commodities could very well turn sour as well. All that's needed is a catalyst; evidence that China is slowing down - or any other number of things. 

Commodities are artificially inflated by speculation, in my opinion. Traders, buying in to hedge against inflation, & the undying hope / faith in China. If that 'hot money' suddenly disappears, commodities will be left to be priced based on actual demand; & if it turns out, that there is indeed a slow down ... well, seems pretty obvious to me.

Seems to me, that commodities are also staying afloat based on disruptions (as a result of power shortages), & not a mass of increased demand; which also represents *further* speculation. The theory of further disruptions to these mines, & once again, what if this doesn't pan out?

I, basically have no faith in any sector of this market at the moment; & believe we have much further to fall in the course of this year, especially if the undying enthusiasm of this commodities bull-uble (being cheeky) finally dies.


----------



## chops_a_must (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Agree its still an each way bet technically. You could argue that they have put in a couple of lower highs since Nov 07(which is a down trend) but equally this could turn out to be a higher low since mid Jan (up trend)




Was going to write about this in a bit of depth later.

Further to your calls and those of Ifocus, looks like we are in a short term downtrend within a still clear long term commodities uptrend.

The problem is, even on a dip from here, without breaking the more important lows, it has the potential to fall quite a way, and put a heap of pressure on the XAO.

XMJ
XMM
and
XEJ

provided. XEJ, the energy index, looks the most bearish of the lot.

Cheers.


----------



## chops_a_must (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> People can place their money in term deposits, & high interest accounts over the short / medium term. One should not rely on commodities being the only "safe" place left to invest in ... commodities could very well turn sour as well. All that's needed is a catalyst; evidence that China is slowing down - or any other number of things.



But if we get a run on a local bank, or a major from a western country, the whole thing will change.

Hell, even I'm looking at buying things simply because I don't want all my money in the bank.


----------



## MRC & Co (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Well, that's a little silly (unless you're referring to placing within the market)
> 
> There seems to almost be a sentiment that the stock market is a must, & that one must *always*, & forever have stock market exposure ... which just isn't so :
> 
> People can place their money in term deposits, & high interest accounts over the short / medium term.




No (you probably gain that sentiment of the stockmarket being a must because you are posting on a stockmarket forum).  

Tell someone in the US to put their $$ in term deposits, what happens?  

I am not just talking about the stockmarket being a "must".  I am talking about commodity markets in general (you can buy the real stuff if you want) which, in turn, are "coincidently" reflected to some degree in our material prices of their related equities.  

How much is a short-term deposit paying in the second largest global economy of Japan?  

How about property in US or even Australia?  

You put your cash in the bank here, I would have made 7% (averaged out, around) since July 1.  I have made 24% so far otherwise.  Must say, I just cannot accept 3-4% real returns per annum, before tax (even in a bear market).  Maybe my risk will bite me in the short-term (though with my stops not too much and certainly nowhere near to wiping out my 24% gain), but I beleive it will pay off in the long-term.

Cheers


----------



## MRC & Co (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> But if we get a run on a local bank, or a major from a western country, the whole thing will change.
> 
> Hell, even I'm looking at buying things simply because I don't want all my money in the bank.




Imagine that, WOW.  Last time I recall a run on the banks was in Argentina quiet some time ago now, am I right?  

Never could have imagined it happening in a major Western economy and still dont think it will happen.  But man would it be a peice of history if it did, they would (and still will) be writing textbooks about this moment for the next generation.........


----------



## chops_a_must (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Imagine that, WOW.  Last time I recall a run on the banks was in Argentina quiet some time ago now, am I right?
> 
> Never could have imagined it happening in a major Western economy and still dont think it will happen.  But man would it be a peice of history if it did, they would (and still will) be writing textbooks about this moment for the next generation.........




Nope. Wrong. Northern Rock.

And I think we will definitely see more. I can't see how we couldn't...


----------



## Nyden (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> No (you probably gain that sentiment of the stockmarket being a must because you are posting on a stockmarket forum).
> 
> Tell someone in the US to put their $$ in term deposits, what happens?
> 
> ...





I do of course appreciate that, but, here in Australia, we do have the exposure to a strong dollar, & an acceptable rate of interest; in short, we're fortunately not the US, or Japan.

Are you a trader, or an investor? If you're a trader, granted - this might be a great time for you. However, an investor might not be having such a great time : I understand that in the long-term the market will most likely bounce back; but, is this going to happen in 1 or 2 days? Most likely not. 

All I'm saying, is that the markets aren't going to make up a years worth of profits in a matter of days (& stay there) ... & as an investor, there's really no need to remain in the markets until a new positive trend is established (this, perhaps, especially relates best to less-seasoned investors), which imo is quite a ways off.


& Chops, well - I tend to believe that our banks are very safe. In fact, I read in another thread; something about our top-4 banks being covered by the government? Although, I'm not too sure on how accurate that is.


----------



## MRC & Co (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Nope. Wrong. Northern Rock.
> 
> And I think we will definitely see more. I can't see how we couldn't...




Yes, however I am talking about a run on the banks (as in a country-wide or perhaps even global in this case) phenomena.  I seem to recall television footage in Argentina of lines out the front of banks all over the place.  

Something to really get the media buzzing and set fear into the hearts of all of the population.  Perhaps this gloom and doom should be in the severe and immiment market correction thread.  

Would be a sight I never expected to see!


----------



## MRC & Co (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> I do of course appreciate that, but, here in Australia, we do have the exposure to a strong dollar, & an acceptable rate of interest; in short, we're fortunately not the US, or Japan.
> 
> Are you a trader, or an investor? If you're a trader, granted - this might be a great time for you. However, an investor might not be having such a great time : I understand that in the long-term the market will most likely bounce back; but, is this going to happen in 1 or 2 days? Most likely not.
> 
> ...




Yes, I beleive its called the four pillars policy or something.  Backed by the RBA.  

I was an investor, but cut my losses and started learning everything I could about trading as soon as the bull-market ended.  Unfortunately, I didnt set stops and ended up having a lot (about half) of my capital gains wiped out!

I agree, anybody investing on a fundamental basis (investors) should wait for a turnaround in the trend (which is in essence, using TA).  

The basis of this debate was where are "people" (global population of investors), going to put their money?  Some makets have to go up, surely?  They are not going to stash notes under the matress.  If you are happy with a small return, then you can put your money in the bank in Australia and still generate real returns.  But that is only a FRACTION of the global invesment community. The rest have to invest somewhere and the key I beleive, is to figure out where...........

Hence, my basis for rising commodities.  Perhaps far beyong their supply/demand derived price.  I didnt see the investors pulling out when speculation was driving their value stocks in the bull market (WOW, JBH etc), some of the best returns can be made with speculation, note better to use trailing stops in these instances in preference to stops at a support/pivot point IMO.  Either way, I will be stopped out if this materials downtrend continues and will wait for a reversal of the downtrend.  If this was a whipsaw, I will remain in my positions and hope for the bull to continue to run!  

Enjoy those bank returns while they last, because at least I beleive this is probably the largest real return you will make on them for a while.  Stagflation is a very true reality and even Australia is not immune.  How much more is there to run in the legs of the AUD?  Perhaps a little more interest rate and purchasing power parity.....?

Just updated the post so may want to re-read.


----------



## Nyden (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Enjoy those bank returns while they last, because at least I beleive this is probably the largest real return you will make on them for a while.  Stagflation is a very true reality and even Australia is not immune.  How much more is there to run in the legs of the AUD?  Perhaps a little more interest rate and purchasing power parity.....?




Yes, I'll be allocating a certain amount of funds into an early-release term deposit at a locked in rate, as I do believe the rates will peak quite soon .. although, would be nice to see 16%! We've reached about 12% quite a few times over the history of interest rates ... I'm sure we'll see them again, eventually : Couldn't exactly snicker at 16-17% of assured return, especially for international investors.

Has anyone done any calculations on where the XAO would be if the entire commodities sector were to undergo a massive decline? We're essentially where we were during the "crash" right now, yet it all seems to be localized around the financial sector. What if the commodity stocks were also to hit their lows?


----------



## MRC & Co (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Yes, I'll be allocating a certain amount of funds into an early-release term deposit at a locked in rate, as I do believe the rates will peak quite soon .. although, would be nice to see 16%! We've reached about 12% quite a few times over the history of interest rates ... I'm sure we'll see them again, eventually : Couldn't exactly snicker at 16-17% of assured return, especially for international investors.
> 
> Has anyone done any calculations on where the XAO would be if the entire commodities sector were to undergo a massive decline? We're essentially where we were during the "crash" right now, yet it all seems to be localized around the financial sector. What if the commodity stocks were also to hit their lows?




Remember, if IRs get that high, so will inflation.  So your real rate of return will remain relatively static.

If inflation gets that high, will be cost push (not demand driven) and this is likely to come from where?  Soaring commodity prices


----------



## Nyden (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Remember, if IRs get that high, so will inflation.  So your real rate of return will remain relatively static.
> 
> If inflation gets that high, will be cost push (not demand driven) and this is likely to come from where?  Soaring commodity prices




Not *entirely* true, as mentioned - international investors would love it. Not all countries experience inflation at the same rate, at least; in certain sectors!

Not to mention; it could still be very beneficial for locals here. Not everything is affected by 'inflation' at the same rate ... ie inflation is currently fairly high at the moment; yet, I can still buy a TV for the same price (cheaper, in fact!) as I could 3 years ago ... same goes with Computers, Cars, certain services (telephones, etc), certain foods (my chinese takeout has remained at the same price for 4 years) ... I guess it all depends on your lifestyle, & current financial situation. 

For me? For the moment at least, I say bring it on :


----------



## MRC & Co (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Not *entirely* true, as mentioned - international investors would love it. Not all countries experience inflation at the same rate, at least; in certain sectors!
> 
> Not to mention; it could still be very beneficial for locals here. Not everything is affected by 'inflation' at the same rate ... ie inflation is currently fairly high at the moment; yet, I can still buy a TV for the same price (cheaper, in fact!) as I could 3 years ago ... same goes with Computers, Cars, certain services (telephones, etc), certain foods (my chinese takeout has remained at the same price for 4 years) ... I guess it all depends on your lifestyle, & current financial situation.
> 
> For me? For the moment at least, I say bring it on :




Look at the basics, why would the RBA rise IRs if the inflation rate was in check?  Isnt this something they directly started targeting in 91-92 I beleive?  There is always going to be a strong correlation, unless of course stagflation causes a re-think (i.e. US Fed).

Of course certain goods in the "basket" rise at different rates.  But what does this have to do with the price of eggs?  

If this is cost push, commodity derived inflation, most sectors will wear it!


----------



## MRC & Co (10 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Of course certain goods in the "basket" rise at different rates.  But what does this have to do with the price of eggs?




Sorry, had to go out so only could reply quickly before, in relation to my brief quote earlier.  

Many of the goods you mention depend on deregulation, economies of scale/scope etc.  This has a lot to do with their price decrease over recent times and something that is limited. Also remember, as Chinese incomes grow (estimated around 20% this year I beleive), these types of goods are going to dramatically increase!  We are only seeing the beginning of this global paradigm shift (if that makes sense).

Anyways, this has got a bit off topic.

Good luck!


----------



## IFocus (11 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Have three charts today starting with XMJ which took a beating no surprises, seems materials was a sell (now seen as a risk IMHO) and some of the money went into XFJ 

Net result XAO went down on higher volume but we closed below January low.


----------



## MRC & Co (11 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This was the exact result I DIDNT want to happen (but cant say I didnt expect, as to why I set tight stops).

Ah well, as long as the XMJ keeps tumbling I will get in at cheaper prices!  

I expect this trend to continue Wednesday, Thursday, as the banks try to bounce until once more, Friday comes along and we see some US inflation figures released (our Friday night I beleive), so Monday and into next week (Fed rate cut) should see this trend reversed again and some cheap commodities come back to the fore.  

Just my opinion.


----------



## nikki (12 March 2008)

*where are you wavepicker!*

Hi Wavepicker, 

your 10/11 march dates were spot on as important turn around times in the psychological shift of the markets!! Might have signalled the bottom for the short term anyway ??? Perhaps the 20/21 march dates might signal a temporary top. Will be watching those dates carefully as well.

I used the dates to go long yesterday - speculation off course - but with the SPI up 195 points i will certainly be interested in today's market actions.

Thanks for your posts in the past


----------



## IFocus (12 March 2008)

*Re: where are you wavepicker!*



nikki said:


> Hi Wavepicker,
> 
> your 10/11 march dates were spot on as important turn around times in the psychological shift of the markets!! Might have signalled the bottom for the short term anyway ??? Perhaps the 20/21 march dates might signal a temporary top. Will be watching those dates carefully as well.
> 
> ...




Agree Nikki Wave nailed it good luck with your position


----------



## sassa (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am surprised by the lack of comments in this thread today as to the action taken by the Fed and the positive effect/s it should have on our markets in the short/long term.


----------



## powerkoala (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> I am surprised by the lack of comments in this thread today as to the action taken by the Fed and the positive effect/s it should have on our markets in the short/long term.




yes, really positive reaction..
up 4% and now 120 pts profit taking..
i believe, many ppl just want out even with huge action from the FED.
i dunno whether xao already hit the bottom, coz today's trading can be considered as dead cat with rocket bounce...
correct me if i am wrong.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like a 'get out at a better price' rally day. Great start but sellers off loading all day. So can the Fed do the same tonight, and every day from now on ?


----------



## Sean K (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Could be just another step down the ladder until all the skeletons are out of the closet. I thought there was potential for much of the bad news to be factored in months ago, but I was well wrong. Continuing to pump money in is actually part of the problem not the solution now. The dead wood needs to be cleared and they need to get on with the recession and make changes to bide time to the next one.


----------



## wavepicker (12 March 2008)

*Re: where are you wavepicker!*



nikki said:


> Hi Wavepicker,
> 
> your 10/11 march dates were spot on as important turn around times in the psychological shift of the markets!! Might have signalled the bottom for the short term anyway ??? Perhaps the 20/21 march dates might signal a temporary top. Will be watching those dates carefully as well.
> 
> ...




Thanks for the compliments Nikki but at times like these I like to analyse that forecast and actually looked at what turned out to be good and what didn't.

Firstly, I must say that only 1/3 of the analysis turned out to bang on. That was the actual date and it's significance.

I was expecting a high on that date which was dead wrong, and the EW pattern of trend I expected was dead wrong too. The EW analysis and Fixed Time Cycle Analysis was bang on for me between mid last year and Nov 2007 in a NORMALLY trending market. However due to the momentum of the move down my expected lows came later than expected and highs came earlier than expected.(Momentum overcame pitch)

Clearly I have some work to do to improve this strategy(need to play around with slightly different Cycle increments) in the future and so it's back to the drawing board for now, although I went long a position yesterday so that turned out OK for now.

The 21st March date is an important cycle point too and perhaps it might be a short term high as you mentioned.


Cheers


----------



## josjes (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi WP, can you share with us the next few Fibonacci dates that are significant to watch out for. You mentioned 21 March and some dates in May or April. What are they? And the reasoning if you care to? 

Thanks.


----------



## IFocus (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Takes more than one bar to make a chart but to days shows some rejection clearly Oz markets have not quite gotten with the program yet unlike the US included the S&P500 chart which closed on its highs last night.

Looking though the charts there just seems to be so many more short candidates than longs.


----------



## korrupt_1 (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Where are we heading?

Fed's rate announcement next week... 100% probability they will cut rates.

No real doom and gloom news on Gloomberg (yet)

Fib lines between the really really really stubborn resistance at 5460 (XJO) and the bottom looks to concur with price support/resistance zones.

If there is a rally tonight... Fib lines will give some clues as where it may peak. Likewise, support may be found at around 5220 and 5170 (XJO). Just now the  50% fib line was rejected...

A break of 5220 (XJO) is likely to be bearish and see further downside. A break of today's peak at 5370 (XJO) looks to be really promising for a retest of that 5460 (XJO) line.

Lets see how this one plays out...


----------



## IFocus (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

korrupt that rally on your chart shows a nice head and shoulder


----------



## sam76 (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> korrupt that rally on your chart shows a nice head and shoulder





Hey mate, could you give me a little lesson on the relevance of the H&S on that chart? Is it to be viewed - or +?

IIf I were to hazard a guess, it would be seen as negative as the pattern can only be finished if the price continues down?

Thanks,

S


----------



## IFocus (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sam as I was reminded the other day H&S patterns are a reversal patten, to be of significance they need to be at the top of a move or trend. Conversely a reverse H&S are at the bottom of a move or trend.

As a pattern they may fail as often as work just depends on the market cycle look at BHP or XMJ on a weekly chart lovely H&S's.

For the pattern to work price must break below the base normally a line drawn across the lows in this case the 5224 area then the pattern is confirmed and price is expected to move to a projected distance.

Hope this helps


----------



## sam76 (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Sam as I was reminded the other day H&S patterns are a reversal patten, to be of significance they need to be at the top of a move or trend. Conversely a reverse H&S are at the bottom of a move or trend.
> 
> As a pattern they may fail as often as work just depends on the market cycle look at BHP or XMJ on a weekly chart lovely H&S's.
> 
> ...




Cheers,  I kinda get it but I must admit it is a bit past my bed time now.  I'll have another look at this tomorrow and pull out one of those trading books I haven't got around to reading yet.

Thanks for you help IFocus


----------



## korrupt_1 (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> korrupt that rally on your chart shows a nice head and shoulder




aye.. sure does look like a H&S on the 1hr... didnt see it until u pointed it out.... 

Based on the charts... i'd give it a higher probabilty it will move lower... I might speculate a trade to go short on a break lower of 5220... targets to maybe 5170 and stops at 5270 (R/R of 1:1 - worth the risk?)...

i'm going cross-eyed looking at charts all night...  

sam76: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp


----------



## sam76 (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"The "head-and-shoulders" pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend-reversal patterns."

Ahhhhhh......

Got it.

Cheers for the link korrupt_1.

I'll have to check out the rest of that site - very convienient

ta


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> For the pattern to work price *must break below the base *normally a line drawn across the lows in this case the 5224 area then the pattern is confirmed and price is expected to move to a projected distance.




Yes, thats the important point.



IFocus said:


> korrupt that rally on your chart shows a nice head and shoulder




Only problem with that chart is thats its a 24 hour SPI chart. 60% of the price bars are outside the cash market and mostly just worthless noise. have a look at the complete lack of volume. As you can see from the same chart with only Cash times makes a big dif.


----------



## korrupt_1 (12 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> mostly just worthless noise




It may be outside the cash-markets and the volume is pathetically low... but I wouldn't say its worthless... it WILL define the cash-market's rough opening quote (infact I sometimes trade the 'gap' between SYCOM quote and cash-market opening quote - easy few points for scalping)

If you monitor the nightly moves, you will be able to maximise your trades. It gives a complete chart of the market... Also the SPI IS a 24hr market... so why not track it on a 24hr basis? (or 22hrs considering the breaks and resets)


----------



## treefrog (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

note that even the "forever bull"s are quietening the last few weeks but still enough optimistic bull posts to get a chortle or two

assuming the market is bullish (uptrend) for the green arrows and bearish (downtrend) for the red arrows, I am having difficulty deciding which way the market is going atm but I'll keep working on it.


----------



## theasxgorilla (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> assuming the market is bullish (uptrend) for the green arrows and bearish (downtrend) for the red arrows, *I am having difficulty deciding which way the market is going atm but I'll keep working on it.*




Sarcasm treefrog?


----------



## austek (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

TF
the chart tells the story.  Was up a lot and down a bit.
Now it's down a lot and (I would expect) up a bit.


----------



## sam76 (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The falls in that chart seem to be getting steeper.


----------



## Awesomandy (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking at the green arrows, the lengths are getting shorter and shorter, and it's getting steeper and steeper. At the same time, the red arrows are getting steeper as well. IIRC, a number of dead bulls have the same pattern.


----------



## zarfius (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A bit of a beginner question.

If the head and shoulders pattern is a classic sign of trend reversal from a bull market to a bear market, is there a similar sign for a bear market to bull?


----------



## Real1ty (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



zarfius said:


> A bit of a beginner question.
> 
> If the head and shoulders pattern is a classic sign of trend reversal from a bull market to a bear market, is there a similar sign for a bear market to bull?





I am into fundamentals but my understand of a H&S is it is a trend reversal but as far as i can tell from the daily, there is no H&S.

I'm only in FAR for Senegal, so any weakness for me will be another buying opportunity.


----------



## Trembling Hand (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



zarfius said:


> A bit of a beginner question.
> 
> If the head and shoulders pattern is a classic sign of trend reversal from a bull market to a bear market, is there a similar sign for a bear market to bull?




Same but upside down.


----------



## korrupt_1 (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Zarfius,

An inverted H&S would give the opposite... (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inverseheadandshoulders.asp)

However, another trend indicator used to show that the market has taken a new direction is the Moving Average. Some professionals use the 200day and 50day MA to determine if a new trend has started. (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp)


----------



## zarfius (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks guys 

I've leaned more in the past week reading these forums than I did reading half a dozen books.

Many years to go, but well on my way


----------



## treefrog (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



zarfius said:


> A bit of a beginner question.
> 
> If the head and shoulders pattern is a classic sign of trend reversal from a bull market to a bear market, is there a similar sign for a bear market to bull?




you may be looking for something like is detailed in this link

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b


----------



## MRC & Co (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> you may be looking for something like is detailed in this link
> 
> http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b




Stockcharts are gold!

I have a few charting books and cant say ANY are nearly as good as stockcharts.  Not even Guppy!

Just my opinion.

H&S (including inverted) is pretty easy to understand, just go to that link.


----------



## IFocus (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well sounding like a stuck record but the buyers disappeared again today as we got the follow through from yesterday. 

Todays close was 1/2 a point below Jan low. 

Now we sit on the edge........consolidation or.... 

Interesting how we have been leading the US a little could be due to bad news after US close while they have good news during their open funny that, any way the S&P over night rejected the box nicely.


----------



## MRC & Co (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeh, I think we will test the sub 5000s over the next few trading days (until perhaps the rate cut).  However, interesting to see how the market reacts to a US rate cut.  Has it already been factored in?  Will it be enough to cause a bit of a rally?


----------



## treefrog (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well folks, as this is the XAO analysis thread, here's some breakup of the XAO into it's sectors with composite sector performance forecasts courtesy westpac


----------



## korrupt_1 (13 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hi guys, my speculation last night of the spi failing 5220 (xjo) will see more downward movement came true. fib line, base line of the h&s pattern and a lower low all indicated lower levels was imminent.

first target was 5170. that support held for a single bounce before failing. next target is 5080. failing that, I agree with mrc & co's sub 5000 might be a real possibility.

however, with rate cuts, wavepicker's 21st EW date for a peak & options expiry next week we could be near the bottom of this rotation... as long as 5080 holds, I still hold hopes for a good rally still.


----------



## Logique (14 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A daily chart for 2008,
is finally showing some bullish divergence in the price compared to various technical indicators, whether you look at our market, the US or the UK. I can post charts if Mods wish, but there are plenty of charts already in this thread. Factor in talk of this possible 0.75% rate cut in the US.  If we can get some relief from the the seemingly endless stream of negative announcements, who knows, we may just claw back some lost ground over coming weeks.

Fundamental value out there? A couple that I follow, 
PTN annual divid forecast 8.5c / share price 55c = 15.4% unfr. tax deferred.  AGF final div announced 0.14 / share price 0.99 (net asset value 1.75 per share) = 14.1% unfr., just for the final divid. Obviously there is much more to look into before buying into these or any other stocks. I'm just making the point that there are lots of stocks out there that will reward the investor once the market turns.

But please, proceed with extreme caution in such a volatile environment.


----------



## korrupt_1 (14 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not much happening today... the volume must be really low? Can someone confirm volume if they have that data? No buyers, no sellers... atleast it's a break from all this whipsawing... probably more action towards EOD.

Been looking at fib lines between the 5460 (XJO) resistance and the tripple bottom low of 5080. Seems like we're currently at another important fib line. I'd speculate that if at the close of the cash market and it has broken 5230, I'm thinking we're heading to atleast 5270 or even higher.

Again, if the bulls cant break through 5230, I'm guessing we're going down again to maybe around 5170.... where fingers cross (if you are bull) support will hold and a bounce occurs... I'm wondering if a spec long at 5170 is a good R:R setup with targets to 5300's and stops down at around 5080.

Anyway too many uncertains and its friday and its a meltdown in adelaide atm... might just go have a cold beer and call it done for this week.


----------



## IFocus (14 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Say we are running around / about 900mil volume daily average currently 533,000,000


----------



## Sean K (14 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Potential double bottom. Maybe.


----------



## MRC & Co (14 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Potential double bottom. Maybe.




Looks like it well could be.

With this IR cut coming, could be a combination of technicals and fundamentals pushing equities up for its next little bounce in its crash cycle!


----------



## dhukka (14 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Looks like it well could be.
> 
> With this IR cut coming, could be a combination of technicals and fundamentals pushing equities up for its next little bounce in its crash cycle!




Oh goody, the bottom callers are back. Of course this must be the bottom, those rate cuts are so effective and all, one more ought to do it.


----------



## korrupt_1 (15 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

US CPI data came in unchanged allowing the Feds to continue more aggressive rate cutting. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avLckFjXrWEE&refer=home)

SPI has rallied some 100pts from the bottom of SYCOM trading in about 90 minutes.

5170 (XJO) has been a very good spring board so far... amazingly (or not) it has now stalled at the 5270 level (the 50% fib line on my chart above)... Expecting it to rotate lower as profit taking kicks in... if it can hold above 5230 all night and into the morning, I'm still bullish that higher levels to around 5450's is still possible by sometime next week. If it can crack 5270 tonight, 5315 is in sight.

Ahh.. but we're in a confirmed bear market and hedge fund managers know to short all rallies, and so it's possible that we may not see the likes of higher levels anytime soon...


----------



## korrupt_1 (15 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OMG !!! Complete madness.. from 5200 to 5300 in 1hr, then tanked from 5300 to 5100 in 45minutes!!!!!!!!!!!!

thats a 300pts round trip in just under 2 hrs...

I'm stunned and shell shocked!!! !@#$%^&*(&^$#%#@ ^     

All technicals are OUT THE DOOR!!!

Here's a theory: Smells like someone in the US had to liqudate urgently and desperately at any price!!!!


----------



## sassa (15 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Financials up Wednesday,down Thursday,up Friday.One would expect down Monday on the Bear Stearns' trouble and further down with the reporting of the big 4 in America next week with analysts(God love 'em) predicting 3 to have eps less than half predicted at the beginning of the Q and the other down a further third.


----------



## tech/a (15 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> All technicals are OUT THE DOOR!!!




How do you come to that conclusion?
There are many technically analysed calls on this thread way below 5000.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> How do you come to that conclusion?
> There are many technically analysed calls on this thread way below 5000.




I couldn't agree more. Fundamentalists are the only ones calling a bottom at present. See already many posters charts going back to 90's. Until this market goes sideways for a good number of months it is in the hands of the gods. 

gg


----------



## Crumpy (15 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Can someone tell me the site to track SPI futures?

Thanks


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Crumpy said:


> Can someone tell me the site to track SPI futures?
> 
> Thanks




For what reason. you can get them delayed at http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/futures_summary.htm its the AP contract. Also at http://www.bloomberg.com


----------



## chilliaa (15 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am a complete beginner about the futures market.  I understand the academic stuff about futures.
Does the futures market opperate outside of ASX trading hours?
If so how can i see the updated information?  The figure on bloomberg doesnt seem to be changing?
Help appreciated


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chilliaa said:


> I am a complete beginner about the futures market.  I understand the academic stuff about futures.
> Does the futures market opperate outside of ASX trading hours?
> If so how can i see the updated information?  The figure on bloomberg doesnt seem to be changing?
> Help appreciated




Because its the weekend.

spi is trading from 9:50am to 4:30pm then from 5:10pm to 7 am.


----------



## Real1ty (16 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chilliaa said:


> I am a complete beginner about the futures market.  I understand the academic stuff about futures.
> Does the futures market opperate outside of ASX trading hours?
> If so how can i see the updated information?  The figure on bloomberg doesnt seem to be changing?
> Help appreciated




If you can't work out for yourself what hours the futures market trades and where to see updated information, i would suggest you are not ready to be trading in the futures market.

IF you do decide to trade futures, the broker you decide to use should give you a platform that will provide you with real time data.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (16 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> If you can't work out for yourself what hours the futures market trades and where to see updated information, i would suggest you are not ready to be trading in the futures market.
> 
> IF you do decide to trade futures, the broker you decide to use should give you a platform that will provide you with real time data.




A bit harsh man, what u were never a beginner? Why don't u help the guy out with information so he does not have to learn the hard way.

Last time I checked this was a place were people came to share and learn about trading.

Che Che cheers


----------



## chilliaa (16 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> A bit harsh man, what u were never a beginner? Why don't u help the guy out with information so he does not have to learn the hard way.
> 
> Last time I checked this was a place were people came to share and learn about trading.
> 
> Che Che cheers




Its ok i dont mind the critiscm, actually i have no intention of trading futures.  I was just curious because it may give an indication of the next days ASX opening.  Especially if it could reflect the information from the prior nights trading in the USA.
But from what i am being told here, the ASX futures do not trade overnight?


----------



## brty (16 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi chilliaa,

The SPI contract trades overnight. You can follow it with a delay from futuresource.com.

Here is the link to the March contract on an hourly chart.

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=APS H8-SFE&o=&a=V:60&z=800x550&d=medium&b=bar&st=

I hope it works.

Use the choices below to choose a different contract or month or timeframe. Because the info is free it is delayed by 20 mins during trading hours, but appears to be live sometimes in afterhours, don't know why.

bye

brty


----------



## theasxgorilla (16 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Because its the weekend.
> 
> spi is trading from 9:50am to 4:30pm then from 5:10pm to 7 am.




5:10pm to 7am is overnight, last time I checked...but not over the weekend...right TH?

ASX.G


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeah they all vary but the first 24 hour Futures open around 8 am Monday(forex Futs, Globex ) and the last close about 8 am Saturday morning Aussie time(late Friday arvo New york). nothing trades over the weekend.


----------



## Sean K (17 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So, 11 March was what?


----------



## Aussiejeff (17 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> So, 11 March was what?




4 days before the Ides?

LOL


----------



## sassa (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What happens today?Rise or fall?Futures up 4.
Financials to win or lose?
Is our sentiment with the DJIA with a modest rise of .18% or with the broader Nasdaq(-1.6%) and S & P 500(-.9%).Lehman and Deutsche started the buying when the S & P dipped under January lows.
Should be an up week really with the Fed tomorrow,the Visa ipo on Wednesday and options and futures expiration on Friday(USA times).


----------



## treefrog (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> What happens today?Rise or fall?Futures up 4.
> Financials to win or lose?
> Is our sentiment with the DJIA with a modest rise of .18% or with the broader Nasdaq(-1.6%) and S & P 500(-.9%).Lehman and Deutsche started the buying when the S & P dipped under January lows.
> Should be an up week really with the Fed tomorrow,the Visa ipo on Wednesday and options and futures expiration on Friday(USA times).




wonders how many will hold positions over easter in this turmoil - a bit of selling wed arvo and thurs perhaps


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> - a bit of selling wed arvo and thurs perhaps




Or maybe short covering! The SPI March Contracts Open interest is continuing to rise into expiry. SPI PUT/Call is also rising, lots of hedges to be trimmed??


----------



## MRC & Co (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sassa and TH, I think are correct.

Seasonality and sentiment indicators from my observation, would lead me to beleive this will be an up week.

Is it just me?  Or does TA generally seem to be worthless as of late?  EW, triangles, head and shoulders, double bottom reversals, the list goes on.  How many have been right, in comparison to how many have been wrong?  Just something to think about.

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Sassa and TH, I think are correct.
> 
> Seasonality and sentiment indicators from my observation, would lead me to beleive this will be an up week.
> 
> ...




No I was just putting up the other side of what could happen into the long weekend. As per the SPI thread end of week tend to rise recently as the shorts have this market by the you know what.

As for TA not working. You are kidding aren't you. The most basic of TA patterns, ie lower lows lower highs, have lead the way since Dec 07.

I think there are many that have been right on this current downtrend. Its the bottom pickers who have thrown TA out the window in spite of a huge trend that have been wrong.


----------



## Porper (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Is it just me?  Or does TA generally seem to be worthless as of late?  EW, triangles, head and shoulders, double bottom reversals, the list goes on.




I agree, I think we need some order and stability in the markets to really use E.Wave and patterns to their full potential.If the US tanks it seems patterns and a lot of the analysis can be discarded, next to useless.

Or at least only trade stocks with patterns that are going with the trend, ie, down.


----------



## treefrog (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Sassa and TH, I think are correct.
> 
> Seasonality and sentiment indicators from my observation, would lead me to beleive this will be an up week.
> 
> ...




I use both F/A and T/A and have found that unexpected fundamentals are always always trumps - forget T/A in those situations. Even a strong LT trend can be quickly reversed for individual shares with a surprize ann. but composites usually require several announcements to confirm a turn and therefore tend to turn slowly as in current situation 
of course the 87 crash was an exception just a large bang! "you hear that! what was it?" " your share portfolio just fell off the top shelf and scattered on the floor mate - but a lot landed straight in the bin, so that was lucky eh?"


----------



## MRC & Co (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> .
> 
> As for TA not working. You are kidding aren't you. The most basic of TA patterns, ie lower lows lower highs, have lead the way since Dec 07.
> 
> I think there are many that have been right on this current downtrend. Its the bottom pickers who have thrown TA out the window in spite of a huge trend that have been wrong.




Well, basic TA is definatley still worth its weight in gold 

Up, down, sideways trends.

Have you read this thread, especially recently?  TA coming from all angles and has rendered itself completely useless.  

I am not a bottom picker, price movement and consolidated strength are still required for me to move long.

Time will tell.  Maybe my sentiment and seasonality indicators will proove as useless as chart patterns and all the other TA analysis (which I agree, can be very useful generally).  I am by no means a TA basher.

Porper, that is why intermarket analysis is also required.  Check out VantagePoint (expensive, but the best in the business at intermarket analysis).

Treefrog, I agree, fundamentals always have the capacity to change any kind of technical trend.


----------



## IFocus (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> This afternoon will be interesting to see if we get a kick up late from the shorts who don't want to hold over the weekend (Nick Radges point).
> 
> If we don't then Waynes technical indicator on my earlier chart will come into play sooner rather than later.
> 
> ...




MRC & Co  in the current situation not sure what else matters...... but that the primary trend is down, nothing has really changed from when this was posted


----------



## MRC & Co (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Current trend is down and I am a firm beleiver in the trend is your friend!  Dont get me wrong!

I am also very interested in all these responses of negativity.

Let me point out a few other indicators, not including TA. 

Put/call ratio rising yeh?  Sentiment very bearish.  Ever heard the saying "dont fight the fed", i.e.  IR cuts are historically followed by some kind of rally.  

Triple witching week, i.e. Stock options, stock index options and stock index futures expire this week.  Two days preceeding public holidays are more often up than not.  

Again, listen to what I am saying:  I do not try to pick the bottom.  Price strength and consolidation are required first, this feeds back into my theory "trend is your friend"!  

No doubt, I could well end up like wavepicker and be completely wrong, but at least we are putting our analysis out there, which only helps in the evolution of your trading style and can catch out things that are wrong so we can learn from there.  

Time will tell, and if the market does not move up this week, it wont bother me because I wait for price action.  

Interesting to see divergence between NASDAQ/S&P and the Dow.

Also interesting to see a rally into the close.  Who was buying in and why?


----------



## brty (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi all,

The primary trend is UP. It has been for the last 150+ years.

A secondary trend maybe down.

But then again a tertiary trend may be occurring in the same direction as the primary trend.

It all comes down to the timeframe you are trading. 

For the primary trend to be down, we would need 20-30 years of declining prices before it changed. Will we get them?; I don't know for sure, however I have more confidence in the system than many here.

bye

brty


----------



## Porper (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> that is why intermarket analysis is also required.  Check out VantagePoint (expensive, but the best in the business at intermarket analysis).





MRC, what is intermarket analysis when it's at home. ? How do they analyse, as in what method ?


----------



## treefrog (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> Hi all,
> 
> The primary trend is UP. It has been for the last 150+ years.
> 
> ...




I take it you are long the market then brty - sorry to hear that


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> I take it you are long the market then brty - sorry to hear that




Yeah since 1858!

The Southern Pick & Shovel Co. has been a ripper since then, Not to mention the Eastern Coach Co.


----------



## MRC & Co (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> MRC, what is intermarket analysis when it's at home. ? How do they analyse, as in what method ?




When its at home, what do you mean?

Intermarket analysis is done by using comlpex neural networks to compare and contrast all inter-related markets that impact on eachother.  It is very much TA, but on a broad scale with highly sensitive computer software.

I dont understand the exact mathematics behind it, but have read the book by Louis B Mendelsohn "Trend Forecasting, with Technical Analysis" and very much agree with the basic principles.  My cousin has traded for a living off this program alone for years and swears by it.  I personally, would want to use it in addition with other methods.  

Damn expensive though, so I would get the book, give them a call and read the website before even considering buying.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Interesting to see divergence between NASDAQ/S&P and the Dow.
> 
> Also interesting to see a rally into the close.  Who was buying in and why?




Actual there was way more selling than buying. Market breadth was 4 to 1 negative last night. If you want to talk divergence thats negative. Price weighted DOW is rubbish.


----------



## Porper (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> When its at home, what do you mean?




Sorry, bit of  English, Yorkshire slang.It basically means I don't know/understand.

Anyway seems far too complicated for a tradesman like myself.Suppose the question is how accurate is it ?


----------



## MRC & Co (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Actual there was way more selling than buying. Market breadth was 4 to 1 negative last night. If you want to talk divergence thats negative. Price weighted DOW is rubbish.




DOW, S&P and NASDAQ all moved higher in afternoon trading.  Not overly important to me, considering they didnt all break into positive territory and close there (called a V-bottom reversal), but still better than a further capitulation from the morning jitters.

Either way, this is only retrospect.  I have stated my peice, time will tell.  If Im wrong Im wrong.  Im happy with that.  All part of the learning curve.

Porper, VantagePoint now allows you to trade many markets, from commodities, stocks, FOREX etc.  You can choose the ones you want to pay for (depending on what your preference of trading is).  It is between 70-80% accurate (this is the bit I am sceptical of, exactly how this is derived and plan to ring them to find out, as there are multiple ways to trade using VantagePoint, either intraday or position).  I personally havent used it yet, but have it here and just need to get the code to use it from my cousin so I can take a look for myself.  The maths is too complex for me also, so outcome is all I will look for.  While I hate not understanding the WHYs of things, sometimes its the only option if the outcome speaks for itself.  Trouble is, when things change, it takes longer for those who dont know the why to catch on.


----------



## brty (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Treefrog,

You don't have to feel sorry for me, I have been long a couple of bank shares since Monday of last week, they are still in profit.

I've raised my stop, so baring a huge gap down, I'll be fine. I've been in cash since last year when we sold a few properties.

bye

brty


----------



## IFocus (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Narrow range day on rising volume as the current *bear primary down trend *continues unabated. There seems to be some ongoing sloshing of money maybe from materials to financials. S&P/ASX200 index weighting for materials now 27.1% verse financials 28.2%.

Included the XMJ again as the XMJ threatens to take us lower IMHO, this chart showing a minor head and shoulders formed in the current price action. A break of the neck line (green line) could well take us down to test the major neck line area.


----------



## tech/a (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What you think Porper/Waves anyone?


----------



## treefrog (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> What you think Porper/Waves anyone?




from 2,3,4, I get first possible extension (point 5) of 4775 - so a way to go yet before the bounce, but then I only use fib extensions - too much detail in elliot waves for frogs
but if I use your point A for point 4 it gives 5 (bounce) at 4870 - a bit higher  (prefer this for point 4)


----------



## tech/a (18 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Frog

Yes those retracements have been mentioned before.
I make it around the same as you for a wave 3 (Corrective move) on Weekly's

Monthly is showing 4765 in a wave 4 leg completion.
So more likely your 4775 looking significant.
Trading below 4965 will see the above daily chart proven in correct.


----------



## mayk (19 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wavepicker must have a crystal ball to see the unfolding of events to suggest 11-th and 21-st of march as important dates: 12-being the date of injection of 200B by RBS in to economy; and 19-20-being the Fed rate cut and more than expected results of Gold-man Sucks and Left-man Bros. 

Nice work Wavepicker.


----------



## MRC & Co (19 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Where did that primary trend go?  

Appears seasonality is winning the day for the moment.  Just need the big rate cut now and its a done deal!  

So the question is: dead cat bounce or momentum?  Early days yet, should know by 3:50pm our time.


----------



## MRC & Co (19 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Where did that primary trend go?
> 
> Appears seasonality is winning the day for the moment.  Just need the big rate cut now and its a done deal!
> 
> So the question is: dead cat bounce or momentum?  Early days yet, should know by 3:50pm our time.




Well here goes. 

I will be looking for this bounce to run for a while now (no time-limit, only so long as price movements keep me in, but could be longer than expected with all the bears jumping on me, no doubt more will come into this thread again).  Never fight momentum, strength usually preceeds strength and best to play it this way until seen otherwise.  Really like the fact that there was a bit of a fightback by the bears later in the day, only to see the smart money come in strong late.  Two more days of tripple witching week and two more days before the public holidays begin in the US.  Which are only good signs for the market Thursday, Tuesday our time.

Wonder how many will be left on the sidelines with their ballz in their hands.......... Only to switch to bulls right before the next downturn.  

As I stated earlier, crash cycle anyone?

Also note, the Russell 2000 performed extremelly well and as such, small caps should have their best go today.  Best to watch for a continuation of this pattern to know which sector/area to move into.

Good luck!


----------



## cordelia (19 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Also interesting to see a rally into the close.  Who was buying in and why?




Couldn't a rally into the close suggest that shorters are closing out their positions? Just wondering


----------



## MRC & Co (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cordelia said:


> Couldn't a rally into the close suggest that shorters are closing out their positions? Just wondering




Yes, it could.

However, its always good to see price strength into the close.  

Next two days are the real tests for momentum.

I have scoured over nearly every single possible indicator (that I know of and learning the ones I dont) and trading style over the past few months, trying to make heads or tails of this market mess.  Hence why I have thrown sentiment and seasonality into the mix, both of which appear seldom used on this forum, or at least discussed.  My conclusion, momentum trading is the current way to go.  Have to be VERY careful of whipsaws doing this however with the extreme volatility of late.

Like in the late 90s, many market tools/indicators are prooving blunt and obselete.  

Things change, best to keep up with it.  A LOT easier said than done! 

Good luck to all no matter your positions or trading style!


----------



## tech/a (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Hence why I have thrown sentiment and seasonality into the mix, both of which appear seldom used on this forum, or at least discussed.




Sentiment = VSA and Wyckoff,Motorway has quite a thread going.
You could also search Tradeguider.
Of all the Analysis "Worth" using I have found VSA and Elliott/Pattern combination to be the best for shorter term trading.


----------



## chops_a_must (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> What you think Porper/Waves anyone?




I'm looking for about 4750 here tech. I think I've posted that before. I think it will really bog just under 5000 though.

Eventually looking for the low 4000s...

Not exactly sure what strategy I'm going to employ at or around that 4700 point... if it gets there.

Financials still have about 10% to go until they get support by my watch. Matches up roughly...

MRC... I think you are a pretty good trader if you've been making money on stocks the last week. Had I not been too busy to trade them, I'm sure I would have copped it from stocks. You might as well be buying/ selling on the opens and closes. Will be a very interesting day. A lot of nerves no doubt.

Anyway, this is what I've been going off for the XAO for quite some time:

Cheers.


----------



## MRC & Co (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes, but still rarely seen, only a couple of guys actually posting it.  I see a lot more TA than anything else, hands down.

Good luck!  Sure to be a LOT of nerves today as you say chops!

Making money on stocks this last week?  Na, more like breaking even!  Infact, Im having some time on the sidelines if we have a downer overnight.  Falling into the habbit of over-trading!


----------



## chops_a_must (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Making money on stocks this last week?  Na, more like breaking even!  Infact, Im having some time on the sidelines if we have a downer overnight.  Falling into the habbit of over-trading!



I think most traders have at some stage battled with or are addicted to trading.


----------



## MRC & Co (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> I think most traders have at some stage battled with or are addicted to trading.




Yes, I agree.

I always try to remain as disciplined as possible and usually dont have a problem.  However, there have been a few trades lately which afterwards I thought, "WTF did I do that for?" 

Might be time to sit it out for a while.

Good luck to all, you sure will need it over this next little while!


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Infact, Im having some time on the sidelines if we have a downer overnight.  Falling into the habbit of over-trading!






chops_a_must said:


> I think most traders have at some stage battled with or are addicted to trading.




Over trading is a load of Bull####. If you have positive expectancy you can't trade enough!

Would you say that Tiger Woods is over playing golf? No because he wins most the time. Could I over play golf? Yep because I'm crap at it and I'm wasting my time where I could be doing something more productive.

Don't confuse a cliche for a problem.(negative expectancy)


----------



## BradK (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

SOMEONE is addicted.... and overtrades... Doopdidoo... da dooo... *whistle whistle*...


----------



## MRC & Co (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No, you have a trading method and should stick too it!  Testing.  

Making trades based more on emotion and less on your criterion is not good, hence over-trading.

And it is possible to over-play golf!  If you do, you will end up with endless injuries!  Any sportsman knows this!  Chops might have an example.........


----------



## chops_a_must (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Over trading is a load of Bull####. If you have positive expectancy you can't trade enough!
> 
> Would you say that Tiger Woods is over playing golf? No because he wins most the time. Could I over play golf? Yep because I'm crap at it and I'm wasting my time where I could be doing something more productive.
> 
> Don't confuse a cliche for a problem.(negative expectancy)




If you've noticed, Tiger does _taper_ for a lot of tournaments. It's why he doesn't burn out. If he played every tournament like everyone else, he wouldn't be as effective because he's a power athlete. He just chooses the ones he wants to win.

I'd say it's the same with trading... if you aren't prepared, you wont perform at your best. Some people are obviously going to perform better at higher frequencies than others... Purely mechanical yeah fine, if you have an edge/ positive expectatio trade more, but if you are a discretionary trader, why wouldn't it affect your performance?

My we are grumpy lately... :



MRC & Co said:


> And it is possible to over-play golf!  If you do, you will end up with endless injuries!  Any sportsman knows this!  Chops might have an example.........




I have no idea what you are talking about...


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> No, you have a trading method and should stick too it!  Testing.
> 
> Making trades based more on emotion and less on your criterion is not good, hence over-trading.




I will disagree 100% with that. If you have a trading "plan" you know works there is no way in the world you will stray from it. greed will keep you on it just fine. The only reason you would stray from its is because you think its not that good and you must try something else.

In that case it isn't emotion or over trading that is the problem. Its lack of an edge.


----------



## MRC & Co (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I will disagree 100% with that. If you have a trading "plan" you know works there is no way in the world you will stray from it. greed will keep you on it just fine. The only reason you would stray from its is because you think its not that good and you must try something else.
> 
> In that case it isn't emotion or over trading that is the problem. Its lack of an edge.




You can look through my trade back-log!  

I am still quiet a fair way up for the year (though, my methods have become in-effective as of late, but I bet most have......).  Would have been a LOT more effective if I set tight trailing stops, this is the part that has killed me.  Hindsight hey!  Where are your predictions?  Seem to be awefully few!  Everything is easily predicted from behind your computer with complete secrecy huh 

As for not straying from a trading plan, are you kidding me?  Over-confidence in past success has a funny way of dealing with people!  Greed breeds greed, which in turn, breeds further aggression, which in turn breeds poor decisions.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

TH

Love your work!!


----------



## MRC & Co (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> TH
> 
> Love your work!!




Wow, sharp Tech/a!  

Im stating opinions, alternatives, here to learn and here to test.  

No more, no less.

Each to his own.


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Where are your predictions?  Seem to be awefully few!  Everything is easily predicted from behind your computer with complete secrecy huh




Sorry if I offended you but I disagree. thats all 

As for predictions I got a blog full of them. Maybe the one about the miners and gold some should of considered rather than falling in love with an idea. If you would like me to send through some statements no prob just pm me. You may be surprised to find I do know what I'm doing here.


----------



## tech/a (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Wow, sharp Tech/a!
> 
> Im stating opinions, alternatives, here to learn and here to test.
> 
> ...




Excellent.


----------



## MRC & Co (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Insinuation is offending.  Anyways, next topic.

I dont need trading statements, you have enough experience so Im sure you know what your doing!

I read the gold blog, but stuck to my methods.  Either way, I actually got out more than I thought yesterday, weakness preceeds weakness and all that!  Too bad it took the big hit last night, as another fall overnight and I was planning on exiting 100%.  Now all out without too big losses.

Excellent.


----------



## tech/a (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Insinuation is offending.




I know what you mean and how you feel I get it often.


----------



## IFocus (20 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO got slammed today nothing like rejection thanks to materials and energy unfortunately I was hoping for a decent run up still may happen but unlikely soon. As we run lower it seems 1/2 the XAO stocks are becoming penny stocks price wise. 

Have thrown up the Materials XMJ again to show a clean break of the smaller H&S neck line not unusual for the neck line area to be retested before continuing lower.

Hope everyone enjoys the Easter break and if traveling a safe return.


----------



## sidswingerhead (21 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Only new to this site, but great thread ppl, keep up the analysis and education....


Luv it.............. swinger


----------



## Logique (21 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We see plenty of gloomy posts in here, I thought I'd post up a chart with some indicators might make a few people feel a bit better. 

Who knows, the chart might even play out as bullish divergence. We have seen in recent days plenty of Buy side money out there that can drive markets a long way if the mood changes. Sure would be nice if the XAO would hold above 5000. The US was up strongly last night, so an up day is likely on Tuesday.

All the same, the XAO would need to rise a long way before breaking above the down-channel.


----------



## sassa (21 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> We see plenty of gloomy posts in here.......
> The US was up strongly last night, so an up day is likely on Tuesday.




As long as the Americans don't reverse today's up on Monday.The market has a habit of doing this.


----------



## MRC & Co (21 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> As long as the Americans don't reverse today's up on Monday.The market has a habit of doing this.




Is the US market open on Monday?  I thought their easter holidays were the same as ours, Friday & Monday.

Logique, I have been the only bull in here since the day before the IR cut (though very tentative bull and only short-term).


----------



## sassa (21 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Is the US market open on Monday?  I thought their easter holidays were the same as ours, Friday & Monday.
> 
> Logique, I have been the only bull in here since the day before the IR cut (though very tentative bull and only short-term).




According to the NYSE calendar,they are open for business.


----------



## MRC & Co (21 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting, thanks sassa.

Generally, the day after the break, follows on from the trend on the last day of trade the previous week.  

If not, its usually a warning sign.


----------



## sassa (23 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Interesting, thanks sassa.
> 
> Generally, the day after the break, follows on from the trend on the last day of trade the previous week.
> 
> If not, its usually a warning sign.




The downgrading of Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers to negative over the weekend by S & P should have effect on the financials in America on Monday.This would spill over to our market on Tuesday.


----------



## MRC & Co (23 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> The downgrading of Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers to negative over the weekend by S & P should have effect on the financials in America on Monday.This would spill over to our market on Tuesday.




Yes it will.  Very hard to predict at the moment, big news overlapping big news all the time.  Making this a true mess!  Ah well, I will try trade it as best I can.  At least minimise losses, smaller position sizing and tighter stops are on their way for me.  

Man, this thread has been D E A D lately!  Seems 75% of the ASF Community have either been wiped out, or given up trading this mess.


----------



## sassa (23 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Yes it will.  Very hard to predict at the moment, big news overlapping big news all the time.  Making this a true mess!




Bad news?? always comes after markets have closed but good?? or convenient?? always during market hours.I wonder why the Goldman Sachs,Lehman Brothers downgrade wasn't released on Thursday along with the good news that propelled the market in the good old U.S.of A.Was it a case of CYA?


----------



## Awesomandy (24 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> Bad news?? always comes after markets have closed but good?? or convenient?? always during market hours.I wonder why the Goldman Sachs,Lehman Brothers downgrade wasn't released on Thursday along with the good news that propelled the market in the good old U.S.of A.Was it a case of CYA?




It's been like this for many many years. All the bad news get released after the close on Friday, hoping that, with the extra time to absorb the information, the stocks won't drop as much (if at all). People can be forgettful sometimes, or somehow rejustify their current long positions. On the other hand, good news always get release during (or just before) the trading hours, giving them a boost.


----------



## Logique (24 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thats a little unexpected that the US market would open on Easter Monday. It will be interesting to see what happens. Checking the June DJIA Futures contracts on the US Sunday night, currently showing up by +211 points.


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Thats a little unexpected that the US market would open on Easter Monday. It will be interesting to see what happens. Checking the June DJIA Futures contracts on the US Sunday night, currently showing up by +211 points.




Nah sorry to disappoint you they are just 20 points up from the last close.

Whatever you are looking at its probably not updated from last week


----------



## Logique (24 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OK sorry if I've misled anyone. What I'm looking at is the CNNMoney Pre-market indicators page, dated 3/23 at 8:57pm (US), which has now moved to DJIA +263 points. We know that pre-market doesn't always match the close, so it needs to be taken in that cautious light.


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> OK sorry if I've misled anyone. What I'm looking at is the CNNMoney Pre-market indicators page, dated 3/23 at 8:57pm (US), which has now moved to DJIA +263 points. We know that pre-market doesn't always match the close, so it needs to be taken in that cautious light.




I think that must be from the open on the last trading day, Thursday morn open US time, not from the close on Thursday. and since the Dow was up some 200 points its not that much of a move as it stands now.

Here is the Dow Futures as of 12:57 Oz time. not much move really.


----------



## AnDy62 (25 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well the DOW has been up about 440 pts since we lasted traded. If it were a fair world, our market should rise by about 200 pts


----------



## MRC & Co (25 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes, this momentum that started with the last multiple IR cut and last weeks seasonality is looking very nice indeed.

Next week, more strong seasonality factors should kick in.  

Price action has confirmed my sentiments and I have accumulated two small caps (with the Russell 2000 divergence lately), I am also looking at some tech stocks based on NASDAQ performance, along with a financial.

Just need further confirmation of price momentum and I will continue to accumulate until the turn.

Cheers


----------



## IFocus (25 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO still in the box no range break out yet more churn or breakout tomorrow? Appears to be weaker or trailing the US S&P500 as the S&P has moved back into the range above

.


----------



## Logique (25 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nice one MRC,
and agree with IFocus that we need box breakout on the XAO to confirm daily trend change.  If we were in a bull market, wouldn't you go long financials and property trusts atm!  On daily technical trend they look cherry ripe.


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What was Wavepickers next date for a top or bottom? 21 March? Maybe a bottom. Would be good to see an update of the analysis. Doesn't seem to be going quite to plan, unless the plan was rejigged considering the market action and we have new dates for a high, or low ....


----------



## Kauri (26 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A lotta _Talking Heads_ in the media saying that the bottom is in... so might be a good time to pull on the old pair of stubbies again ....  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## $20shoes (26 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> What was Wavepickers next date for a top or bottom? 21 March? Maybe a bottom. Would be good to see an update of the analysis. Doesn't seem to be going quite to plan, unless the plan was rejigged considering the market action and we have new dates for a high, or low ....




No EW analysis here, but for what its worth....the chart shows 3 Bollinger Bands set at 21, 34 and 55 day. 3 x BBs are used to show the volatility in different time frames, the RED being short term, BLUE intermediate and GREEN MAs longer term.

I have drawn in black dashed vertical lines as examples of how you might try to anticipate a bottom. Note that as the price commences a downswing the upper BBs push up but then curl over as a bottom is put in. 

Also, you often see at least the RED and BLUE bottom BBs try to curl around and encapsulate the bottom's price action. You can see at the last black vertical line (on 23rd Jan)that the bottom BBs couldn't turn (curl up) because of the sheer volatility in the down swing. In fact the green band just kept traversing downward suggesting the possibility that a bottom wasn't in.  

What am I looking for now? As of yesterday's price action the upper Blue and Red BBs have curled down suggestive of a possible bottom. The lower green band has curled up also suggesting a reprieve. I want to see the lower RED AND BLUE bands curl up in the next day or two to give confirmation to a temp bottom. 

Note the huge distance between the upper and lower green bands. With such huge volatility, all the price action can do is simply claw back or retrace some of its lost ground. 

Whats my call?? The longer term Stochastics could show some strength until 4th April. The price could climb to between 5500 and 5700, where some of the volatility will be removed. The bottom BBs will then be in a position (alignment ) to commence the next protracted downswing to 4500-4400.


----------



## Broadway (26 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> A lotta _Talking Heads_ in the media saying that the bottom is in... so might be a good time to pull on the old pair of stubbies again ....
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Hey Kauri,

I gather stubbies are shorts? Not beer?

Is there anything else you base this on? eg. usd and gold turning in the last 48 hours? Or just longs pressure running out?

thx.


----------



## Gurgler (26 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Hey Kauri,
> 
> I gather stubbies are shorts? Not beer?
> 
> Is there anything else you base this on?




Yes there is another vital parameter he uses, the budgie! What's s/he saying Kauri? Still securely anchored to the perch/off its food?


----------



## MRC & Co (26 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On the sentiment polls I have read, bulls are now turning above the bears, but still not a strong differential.  I beleive there is still some room for this rally to run.  Perhaps back to the 5600-5800s, though I dont like making price predictions, as I prefer to trade price action.  

These little rallies are normally short and steep!  Before the next downleg in the crash cycle begins.  

Im in on 5 small caps.  Doing ok at the moment, but a sharp turn (not out of the question with this volatility), could change that very quickly.

I will hope to see more positive divergence from the Russell 2000 tonight, it has been going very strong lately!


----------



## wavepicker (26 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> What was Wavepickers next date for a top or bottom? 21 March? Maybe a bottom. Would be good to see an update of the analysis. Doesn't seem to be going quite to plan, unless the plan was rejigged considering the market action and we have new dates for a high, or low ....




Sorry for the late reply. Refer to the following post re your querry:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=270106&postcount=3082

Will try to update soon, been busy at present testing a new trading system developed for FX markets(and later applicable to all markets) with Apocalypto(Joseph).


----------



## MRC & Co (27 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I dont have volume for indicies, any VSA guys here who do and can run some analysis?

From my observation, volume on most stocks in this recent little rally has been very thin! Suggesting specialists are out of the market and will probably shake out quiet a few more weak hands sometime soon.......

No real high volume on low spreads following the last downturn on the charts I have read.  Maybe only one or two bars, but nothing indicating much entry by professionals.


----------



## korrupt_1 (27 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Guys, something just occured to me... end of quarter (EoQ)... does this mean anything?

Do fund managers play hokey pokey with the SPI to meet a certain portfolio goals?

I'm just wondering if EoQ would see some large price manipulation happening on our little aussie index? I dont have access to intraday data going back that far to see if EoQ is of importance...


----------



## MRC & Co (27 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From my understanding, end of quarter doesnt make much difference.  Each quarter does, but only on tripple witching week, which has already passed.


----------



## Awesomandy (28 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> From my understanding, end of quarter doesnt make much difference.  Each quarter does, but only on tripple witching week, which has already passed.




I would think that there may be some importance at the end of the quarter, as some hedge funds would crystallise their incentive fees on a quarterly basis. However, not all funds have their incentive fees paid out each quarter, and I would imagine most of them to have their own strategies anyway. So, the overall net result would probably end up to be quite close to zero anyway if they want try to manipulate the market at the end of a quarter.


----------



## MRC & Co (28 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I dont base my analysis on what I think, or logical reasoning.  Only on what I have read is statistically probable. 

To date, I havent read anything about strong historical performance towards the end of each quarter.  

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Mark Ups! what about mark down for the quarter end.


----------



## ShareIt (28 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm loving this short squeeze rally


----------



## korrupt_1 (28 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Very solid consolidation happening since it gapped higher over the long easter weekend. Tight trading band of around 120pts over 4 days of trading.

What's the norm after a consolidation? Does it go off in the direction it was heading before? ie... up in this case?

Also, gaps usally gets closed, there was a huge gap over the easter break... any chance of that getting closed? hmmm... what do fundamentalist and technicals say about that?


----------



## MRC & Co (28 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Where is the gap?

Much depends on what kind of gap it is, but I cant see one.

I cant see volume, but I like the fact we have closed near the highs now over a few consecutive days.  Perhaps today was a "test" with the longer tail.

Most comes down to the US anyways, so I dont bother much with XAO analysis these days.

Dont think fundamentals come into it much at the moment with this volatility (at least in the short-term).

I personally, expect to see an up-week next week and then some more carnage..........


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There's gaps everywhere on the SPI which is the driver for the XAO.

A big one at 5580 to 5480,
A Bigger one 5200 to 5330. (SPI numbers)


----------



## MRC & Co (28 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So which gap on the SPI will fill TH?  The one above where we are at 5580 to 5480 or the one below 5200 to 5330...........?


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

got a coin.


----------



## korrupt_1 (28 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's the graph of the gap I'm talking about...

I realise I've posted the 24hr SPI chart (not the XAO/XJO)... but remember the aussie index is traded approx 20hrs/5days a week.

March 20th (eve of Easter Friday), the SYCOM market closed at midnight. Last price was 5141 (XJO).

Easter Monday, market was still closed. Come Tuesday March 25th when the AU market re-opened, there was a 230-odd point gap.

From my experience, gaps eventually get filled most of the time, ie, the SYCOM closing price and the cash market opening price, there are usually gaps. These gaps close up eventually - but not sure what's the go with this 230pt gap ?


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 March 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Futures traders use the cash hours to calculate gaps not the 24 hour charts!!


----------



## korrupt_1 (1 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Futures traders use the cash hours to calculate gaps not the 24 hour charts!!




... perhaps, but from what I've traded, the 24hr gaps gets closed almost all the time. I can't think of one gap that has not been closed in the last few months anyway.

The "gap trade" is very lucrative if you can spot a good setup. Today was a fine example. Last overnight quote was 5355. The index reopened at 5377. "Easy" 23 points. The larger the gap, the more 'pull' it has. I've noticed gaps of >20pts are easy trades. < 10pts needs caution and anything < 5pts is probably not worth trading.

The only point i'm making about this 230pt gap is that it's like a black hole or vaccum that's probably holding the index back from going further. Having said that, I've never seen a 230pt gap before and have no idea on how it will affects things. My feeling is that we may very welll close this gap in the near future - I only say this cos the 5400 (XJO) barrier is not giving way, so it can only head in the other way.... which is back down...


----------



## tech/a (2 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> What you think Porper/Waves anyone?




Seems pretty well on track.


----------



## dodgers (2 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

whats your view on the bottom of the last leg tech/a, 4800?


----------



## sassa (3 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Seems to be a feeding frenzy on the market today.


----------



## korrupt_1 (3 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I get a feeling it could be a pump and dump day...


----------



## MRC & Co (3 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> I get a feeling it could be a pump and dump day...




I thought the same Korrupt.  Was surprised to see it hold steady.  ASX is looking strong in comparison to the US at the moment (perhaps some catchup from the blows it was taking previously) or maybe just represents we are in a better situation than the US.


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Last two days been good volume up days. Open interest dropped for the first time in a week yesterday on the SPI probably again today. Would suggest a good amount of covering. SPI call buying rising, good sign.


----------



## bryan_palmer (3 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Does this suggest the market volatility is over and we are going to get some stability?


----------



## MRC & Co (3 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bryan_palmer said:


> Does this suggest the market volatility is over and we are going to get some stability?




Nope.  

Suggests this little rally is looking ok, I will keep riding the trend as I stated back at the IR cut.  Dont think it will last long, possibly only days or weeks, will probably look to profit take around Tuesday and Wednesday next week, all going according to plan.


----------



## tech/a (3 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dodgers said:


> whats your view on the bottom of the last leg tech/a, 4800?




My current view.
This could alter depending on what happens at each expected move point.
5900 ish and 4800-4300 ish




Expected timing for end wave 4 April 18-22nd


----------



## $20shoes (3 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Possible sticking point tomorrow?? According to an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, the XAO is now at a point of resistance (see blue cloud above today's price action). The clous represents a dynamic region of support/resistance. 

The lagging Chikou span (jagged purple line) is simply the price action displaced backwards by 26 days, and it has some candles it needs to clear (see brown ellipse around 25th Feb) before a more bullish posture can be assumed.

All the other ellipses on the chart are simply highlighted points of support resistance to show the chart may have some merit.


----------



## mickqld (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry for not learning how to post a chart but it appears to me that the DOW , FTSE and ASX charts are all showing on a 10 year weekly cycle a bullish crossover on the MACD. It has been at least 6 months or longer on these 3 indices since there has been a positive MACD cross. May just be indicating a positive turn for a while on the markets. 
Comments and criticisms welcome please,


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mickqld said:


> It has been at least 6 months or longer on these 3 indices since there has been a positive MACD cross. May just be indicating a positive turn for a while on the markets.




You got it.

Just showing what has happened in the markets recently (they have gone up), lagging indicator remember.


----------



## Whiskers (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> Possible sticking point tomorrow?? According to an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, the XAO is now at a point of resistance (see blue cloud above today's price action). The clous represents a dynamic region of support/resistance.




Todays close is pushing against the Bollinger band and your blue cloud $20shoes. The stockastics suggest it has about run it's run for the moment, but another small rise day will make a good neckline for an inverse head and shoulders. Ease off for a few days before charging onwards and upwards. 

Tech/a, your leg up looks good to me, but is there a particular reason you think the 5th leg will go so low? I'm not an EW expert. 

Edit: Actually if an inverse head a shoulders does form there is a good chance it may invalidate your count, tech/a.


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech, couple of questions.  Doesnt EW generally only involve 3 waves down? Layman speak.

Also out of interest, do you ever add geometry to your EW?


----------



## tech/a (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Firstly I'm no Elliott Expert. Id say a basic and evolving understanding.
Began dabbling 10 yrs ago and only really seriously looking at it around 12-18 mths ago. One of the few "forward looking" forms of analysis with credence ---in my view.

W
The higher this move goes the shorter the last leg.
As Elliott is dyanamic in form it could also invalidate the current count and Ive marked on the chart where that is.

MRC
Geometry--in basic form ie wave lengths with the addition of time that would bring in some geometry,other than that no. What did you have in mind.

Corrective moves can be 3 waves as in ABC
Larger moves consist of 5 waves down and 3 waves in the up moves.
The 5 waves down form the "A" of a larger 3 wave ABC pattern.


----------



## wayneL (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Tech, couple of questions.  Doesnt EW generally only involve 3 waves down? Layman speak.
> 
> Also out of interest, do you ever add geometry to your EW?



Not all corrective wave patterns are 3 waves. There are more complicated correctives such as triangles (5 waves), double & triple zig-zags. double & triple 3s... and there is nothing to stop a impulse on a down leg.

There is also the question of degree, which can muddy the waters (and have EW theorists punching each other's lights out)


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> The lagging Chikou span (jagged purple line) is simply the price action displaced backwards by 26 days.




In that case is it just another line for the sake of another line??


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks fellas,

Nothing in mind really Tech, just finished reading "Trading the SPI" (thats about book number 15 in the last couple months and still havent scratched the surface of my pile!!!!  EEEK!) and was interested to see Brett Penfold add geometry to EW in his "triple reversal point swing trading strategy".  Also saw him talk about Frank Dilernia (something like that) and his Fibonnaci pivots Wayne.

I never knew you used EW Wayne?  Is it one of the things you studied on your way to establishing your trading plan, or something you actually use day to day?  Guess the former from observation.

Cheers


----------



## $20shoes (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> in that case is it just another line for the sake of another line??




Cloud charts are messy looking but each line has its place. The Japanese have been using Cloud charts since the 1960s. The process took 20 years to perfect starting in the 1940s; it is still commonly used in Japanese markets today. The cloud charts also use wave analysis btw. At a basic level, the study looks for stalling points within a larger move 9, 18 and 26 days ahead. They combine this with the thickness of the cloud plotted 26 days ahead of today's price action to see if the cloud and wave will give an idea of when the market is likely to change trend. Ichimoku day counts are plotted from intermediate his/lows and look for clusters similar to Fibo. However, the study uses a Timespan principle of 9, 18, 26, 33, 42, 65, 76, 129, 172 and 257

Regarding the Chikou span, take a look at my original chart once more. See how the Chikou crosses through the candles on or about the 5th Oct 2007. Now from that point on, trace the line with your eye and tell me what happens each time it hits a candle cluster? (Don't forget that this line represents the price action from 26 days into the future.)...I can count four times where the Chikou has faithfully respected the candles as resistance; and very obviously so. So potentially, it is more than just another line; if it  works well on a stock/index (its not always so obvious), it might help us determine how bullish or bearish our posture.

some ichimoku cycles as applied to XAO in pic below (we take the bars) -


----------



## wayneL (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> I never knew you used EW Wayne?  Is it one of the things you studied on your way to establishing your trading plan, or something you actually use day to day?  Guess the former from observation.
> 
> Cheers



I worked for a short time at an EW software firm as trader and had a minor hand in writing their EW course. (It was well dodgy financially, so I left.)

I don't annotate the charts or really think about EW per se, but I do mentally note wave structure. I've probably forgotten more about it than I remember, but yes, I use it in a very loose and liberal sense.


----------



## nomore4s (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Also saw him talk about Frank Dilernia (something like that) and his Fibonnaci pivots Wayne.




I'm pretty sure Frank posts on this site occasionally.


----------



## nomore4s (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Todays bar has a very tight range with high volume and a weakish close.

A warning shot maybe? This wave up may continue for awhile longer but todays bar looks like it might be running out of steam. Some effort in that bar for not much result.

I would also like to see some support around the white box on the next leg down for a continued bullish argument. This area is around the 50% level of this move up from the bottom as well as having that small area of consolidation.

But I do think we will at least test the 5200 level again at some stage.

My


----------



## IFocus (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi $20shoes

Thanks for the commentary on Cloud charts have seen others (Kauri / Itha over on the forex) use the cloud but I didn't understand the purpose. 

How do you incorporate it into taking a position?

Focus


----------



## motorway (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> (Don't forget that this line represents the price action from 26 days into the future




No all the lines represent the past price action





> By and large, the calculations for ichimoku charts are similar
> to moving average techniques but use the historical highs and
> lows rather than a series of closing prices.




They are then displaced forward and backwards 




> An ichimoku chart is a trend-following system with an indicator
> similar to moving averages. What makes it unique, however,
> is found in the strategy to time-shift the trendlines to the
> past for the delayed line and to the future for the preceding
> ...






> Note the key time spans of nine, 26, and 52 days in his
> formulas. The time span of 26 days would correspond to the
> number of business days (Saturdays included) in one month
> when this charting method was devised and tested. So the time
> ...





Displaced  Moving Averages.

dyor
motorway


----------



## josjes (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> Cloud charts are messy looking but each line has its place. The Japanese have been using Cloud charts since the 1960s. The process took 20 years to perfect starting in the 1940s; it is still commonly used in Japanese markets today. The cloud charts also use wave analysis btw. At a basic level, the study looks for stalling points within a larger move 9, 18 and 26 days ahead. They combine this with the thickness of the cloud plotted 26 days ahead of today's price action to see if the cloud and wave will give an idea of when the market is likely to change trend. Ichimoku day counts are plotted from intermediate his/lows and look for clusters similar to Fibo. However, the study uses a Timespan principle of 9, 18, 26, 33, 42, 65, 76, 129, 172 and 257
> 
> Regarding the Chikou span, take a look at my original chart once more. See how the Chikou crosses through the candles on or about the 5th Oct 2007. Now from that point on, trace the line with your eye and tell me what happens each time it hits a candle cluster? (Don't forget that this line represents the price action from 26 days into the future.)...I can count four times where the Chikou has faithfully respected the candles as resistance; and very obviously so. So potentially, it is more than just another line; if it  works well on a stock/index (its not always so obvious), it might help us determine how bullish or bearish our posture.
> 
> some ichimoku cycles as applied to XAO in pic below (we take the bars) -




Thanks $20shoes for taking the time to post the chart. Must say this concept is something new and looks quite amazing after I take time to understand your explaination. It is also quite enlightening to see the convergence of EW analysis and your analysis, both conclusion is that the resistance we are expecting is around 5800 give or take 50 points, and it is high probablity that we are not able to go pass that resistance and go sideways for at least a few month more, now whether it will break to new low and hit 4800 that is the $$$ question. Can you post and update your Japanese chart if it foretells that scenario. Thanks again.


----------



## motorway (4 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here are some ( no exotic sounding names )

Moving Averages

A 9 period and a 26 period EMA

BUT

Both shifted forwards 26 bars


motorway


----------



## IFocus (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Here are some ( no exotic sounding names )
> 
> Moving Averages
> 
> ...





Interesting thanks Motorway, I remember looking at displaced MA's some time ago.........went back to price action / VSA


----------



## Broadway (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I noticed MQG and BNB took a hit all day today.
And now with poor employment figures from the US and a down looking USD index,  I think next week may just start our next ride down for a while.

I personally hope it doesnt last too long.


----------



## vishalt (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Guys, 

I have a question?

When will the Aussie market STOP going up? lol

I hope we see 4000 so I can claw in with the cash.


----------



## MRC & Co (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> And now with poor employment figures from the US and a down looking USD index,  I think next week may just start our next ride down for a while.
> 
> I personally hope it doesnt last too long.




I agree and agree, will be interesting to see how the US moves over the rest of the evening.  If it ends down, I will exit my positions on Monday.

I am looking for the next shift downwards next week.  

nomore4s makes an interesting point on effort, volume and outcome.  

Damn Wayne, you have done it all!  Good to see you still revert back to K.I.S.S principles, nearly every book I have read written by successful traders all say the same thing.  Trade set-ups and plans change, but the same principle is espoused.

I find my most simple methodology also reaps the greatest rewards, though I am inquisitive to learn various strategies.  Even if just for the fun of learning!


----------



## $20shoes (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> No all the lines represent the past price action
> 
> 
> They are then displaced forward and backwards
> ...




If I am looking at the Chikou span (ma displaced backwards) at any one point in time, then I am seeing the price action that took place 26 days forward from that point (the future, from Chikou's perspective). A matter of wording I suppose... 

Yes, the study is this at a crunch (MAs moved forward/backward)...Josjes, it does look amazing, but in reality it is very very simple...In fact the name "Ichimoku Kinko Hyo" translates as chart - at a glance - meaning from one quick look you should be able to quickly assess how bullish or bearish a stock is.

Motorway, you explanations sound dismissive, but let me give a little more detail. BTW, it took close to 20 years of backtesting to work out that a 9 day MA gave the best results when used with 26 day MA. This is all the backtesting we have on this study...if you want to muck about with different timed MAs good luck to ya. (PS, backtesting was in Japanese markets)



Agree entirely about it being displace MAs, but your chart is misleading in the way you simply choose two lines to displace forward, and you give no reason why the Ichimoku study would choose to do this with certain MAs.  I assume you quickly read something on the internet by Ken?


One line of the cloud is calculated by adding the 9 and 26 day values and dividing by two (midpoints are used, because the study really focuses on two halves of a market; above and below midpoints). The line is then plotted 26 days ahead. 

The second line of the cloud is significant - it is the midpoint of the last 52 days, essentially to Western thinking, similar to a 50% retracement level. That is, there are two halves of the market above and below this line. 

It is definitely a trend following system. It is definitely simple...I presented it here as an alternative to EW discussion and blind freddy can see that there are 26 day cycles (approx) occurring on the XAO and that the lagging MA could be useful.

JosJes - if I feel the study will help tell a picture about possible movements that back up or counter EW analysis then I will happily post.

Ifocus - I don't personally use it to take a position. I use it more as a secondary tool to perhaps give weight to more western indicators that I typically use (and to digress, and thanks to Tech/As postings I am really trying to develop a more mechanical and backtested system...and it would be painful to try to incorporate this into a backtest).

For example, a couple of pages back I used a BB analysis and stochastic indicator to predict some buying strength up to the 5th April. In the background I was using Ichimoku to help confirm the 5th as a possible target.


----------



## motorway (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

People can get excited by the "exotic"

Ichimoku--- is a default indicator on updataTA

So I have had a  look at it on bar and P&F charts

It is a lagging indicator....It follows along even though it is drawn in front.

Nomore4.... has correctly identified resistance. It is selling pressure, supply.

The thrust  ( Geometry ) of that bar has shortened... And Volume has increased..

Demand and Supply leave behind artifacts...We can give them names like MACD or RSI or Ichimoku

They give a Static context....But we deal with a dynamic one.

Resistance is not some line
it is someone selling NOW


I ask

what
how & why

What is the geometry of the waves of buying and selling ( Not talking about Elliot's Waves either ) thrust and reaction
how is the volume 
why is accumulation or distribution

With  RSI or MACD , Ichimoku etc 
You can optimise these to the behavior of past demand and supply

You can fight yesterdays war tomorrow...Only thing is your opponent is unlikely to play along..




> Note the key time spans of nine, 26, and 52 days in his
> formulas. The time span of 26 days would correspond to the
> number of business days (Saturdays included) in one month
> when this charting method was devised and tested. So the time
> ...




ASX does not trade Saturdays



> but your chart is misleading in the way you simply choose two lines to displace forward,




Two lines that  matched the Ichimkou was the reason

The rhythms of the market are broken rhythms.



> meaning from one quick look you should be able to quickly assess how bullish or bearish a stock is.




A stock  goes up or it goes down is there much else?

motorway


----------



## $20shoes (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> People can get excited by the "exotic"
> 
> 
> It is a lagging indicator....It follows along even though it is drawn in front.
> ...




Thanks again for your comments. I can't disagree with you Motorway, it is certainly just that - a lagging indicator. 

And you raise some very good questions that all traders should constantly be asking themselves. 

You won't get an argument from me that Supply and Demand TODAY is the key. So much can simply be derived from a Volume Histogram and its corresponding bar or candle.  On that point , I would have been a much better trader earlier on, if someone had forced me to study nothing but volume against a price chart (no indicators or trend lines allowed) for  2 years.  

That said, an indicator should be helpful in graphically displaying historical waves/extremes of demand/supply. 

Say with VSA, which is what i asume you are alluding to, if one studies a single bar in isolation, they know a lot about today's trading psychology, but that can't put that into a broader context. So even VSA needs to be backward looking to get some perspective. Even EW must concede the use of historical movements to try to predict a future wave.


----------



## tech/a (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There is a place in analysis for lagging indicators.
I like Stochastic Divergence.
I use lagging indicators in systems tests.
Motorway uses P&F charts with past history charted and geometry applied.

If your trading short term you'll want to deminish or remove as much lag as possible. VSA is as close as you'll get.
Rather than for buy and sell analysis I find history is handy for selection of UNIVERSE to trade. Both short and long.


----------



## vishalt (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Futures pointing to ANOTHER decent rally, almost 1%. 

I seriously hope there's more red to come so we can get better buys, banks look too expensive at even these levels D:


----------



## CFD (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I like to use a lagging indicator to set a trail stop.


----------



## tech/a (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You didnt buy in the middle of March?

If not how then do you determine a "Right time" to buy?
and a "Right time" to sell.
Should we be selling bank stock at "this level"?


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> Futures pointing to ANOTHER decent rally, almost 1%.



No they aren't. About 20 points higher than cash close Friday arvo.


----------



## vishalt (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> No they aren't. About 20 points higher than cash close Friday arvo.




No you're wrong. 

S&P/ASX	5,693.00	39.00	0.69


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> No you're wrong.
> 
> S&P/ASX	5,693.00	39.00	0.69




Really. It may help if you know what you are quoting. That 39 point move is from the close of SPI futs @ 4:30. Which has NOTHING to do with cash close value. Which should be taken at the ASX 4:10 auction time or even 4:00.

As you can see from the posted chart the SPI fell some 30 points after the cash close on some serious high volume games. You are quoting the wrong value :
So hope you don't get to excited about your false figures.


----------



## korrupt_1 (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That was a serrious dump with a few minutes left... must be traders wanting out before the weekend and expectation of bad results from the US Jobless Claim data... It's a shame the US didn't tank much as it would have been a healthy rotation back to value.

It's interesting to note that large spikes that occur during the cross trades can be very lucrative if you have quick reflexes, fast broadband and some hunger for risk. There is always some counter-move in the opposite direction.


----------



## motorway (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> Thanks again for your comments. I can't disagree with you Motorway, it is certainly just that - a lagging indicator.
> 
> So even VSA needs to be backward looking to get some perspective. Even EW must concede the use of historical movements to try to predict a future wave.




Yes we need context.. And dynamics are always unfolding..

There is accumulation before mark-up
Distribution before mark-down

So the context is the story unfolding

Here is something you might find interesting

It could be any indicator...

With Ichimoku..I have found these settings more relevant on P&F

Now any indicator becomes adaptive when placed on a P&F chart
( I have only made the cloud and the lagging line visible )

The columns have no fixed time scale

When Support and Resistance changes a column changes.

So the time frame of any indicator expands and contracts

When it is on  P&F chart ..

As tech states I use P&F I do not use many indicators

I do place some EMAs  on 1 box reversal charts.

( Help measure that geometry... was that a meaningful thrust etc )

Ichimoku looks nice... But whether it reveals or conceals.. I am not so sure.

P&F have such clarity already .. You can just see the small accumulation zone.
P&F makes dynamics and change of dynamics very obvious...

The nature of a chart drawn by support and resistance and not time.

motorway


----------



## tech/a (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Would you call a trend line or a support and resistance line (Rather than area) an indicator or are we defining indicator as Oscillator formulas?


----------



## motorway (5 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

support is where demand overcomes supply..

It is  the bottom of every  column on a P&F chart..

We can not say the same thing of a bar chart
because the chosen time frame splits waves up artificially..

We can say when time is drawing  the next bar 
demand and supply were at a certain point in time

hence why the close is so important along with the range.
On the P&F a the close is always the last point of support
or of resistance

Lines are frames to help identify behaviour and change of behavior

I think of them as like a carpenters straight edge..

They help reveal the straight from the curved...

indicators I define as things that count time twice
once as duration and once as a time frame

So something like OBV gives indications but is not an indicator by my definition  ( time is present but only as duration )..

Same with trend lines ( horizontal or vertical ) they do not count time twice..
and they can ( should ) be drawn from points of interest

This point to that point ( the points having a POINT )

Just like a carpenter

A moving average is always non optimised to what will matter


motorway


----------



## $20shoes (6 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Motorway, thanks for the chart. Looks interesting, and something I might look into a little further. To be honest, I've never really used P&F charts (no particular reason) but I understand the concept.
Appreciate the time and effort your put into your responses...


----------



## Broadway (6 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> You didnt buy in the middle of March?
> 
> If not how then do you determine a "Right time" to buy?
> and a "Right time" to sell.
> Should we be selling bank stock at "this level"?




These are the ultimate questions. What determines a top or bottom before they happen? How do you enter or exit into strength, before the corner happens?

Would it be possible for you to share some of your secrets, Tech/a?

What did you use to determine the middle of March as the right time to buy?

Was it financials hitting a low with volume, or other factors like gold or USD?

SPI and other futures' volume confused me because of expiry/changeover. And then the Easter gap up meant entering longs after easter felt like coming late to the party.

cheers.


----------



## MRC & Co (6 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> And then the Easter gap up meant entering longs after easter felt like coming late to the party.




Be careful about this, its always better to come "late to the party" once price action has confirmed momentum.  Not pick bottoms and tops.

I think you misinterpreted the point of techs post, it was basically stating you cannot determine the "right" time.

VSA best use I find, from my short time of using it, is in the use of spotting tops and bottoms.  High volume on narrow spreads with consolidation after a large up or downturn.  Probably the most reliable pattern of VSA from my research.  Check out SDG and JBH lately, looks like accumulation after a period of strong distribution (if thats the correct terminology).

I personally used seasonality and sentiment indicators, along with price momentum, to buy into this latest rally.  Has reaped terriffic benefits over the last couple weeks despite the warnings!


----------



## motorway (6 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Would you call a trend line or a support and resistance line (Rather than area) an indicator or are we defining indicator as Oscillator formulas?




The best indication and definition 

IS where the volume comes in...

this is the principle of the "creek"

It is about identifying a top and a bottom
If you can not identify a top or a bottom ( on the scale you are interested )

DO NOT ENTER..

Broadway asks a good question
which has many answers

some can not identify a bottom until 
We are nearly at a top.
and can not identify a top until we are at a bottom

eg How else do we explain the 
extreme volume at bottoms ?

It is only a question of
did they jump or get pushed


nomore4's chart shows us  a flow of supply has been encountered

This is the "creek"

That has to be jumped 
either by absorption or by a back-up  & jump

creeks are minor and major
and are often found along the rally tops..

But they are not lines
but where the volume comes in..


motorway


----------



## MRC & Co (6 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> creeks are minor and major
> and are often found along the rally tops..




This one is in all probability, very major!  More of a river than a creek so to speak!

Found along this rally top!  

Cant be much more room to move upwards, without positive news, especially in relation to company profits.


----------



## Whiskers (7 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Cant be much more room to move upwards, without positive news, especially in relation to company profits.




People are naturally optimistic, MRC. A lack of unexpected bad news for a reasonable time will allow oportunistic buying to develop. 

Love to see around 5,720/30 or so today or tomorow before running out of steam this time to improve probability of a shot well over 6,000 next run up.


----------



## MRC & Co (7 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is looking a hell of a lot like a crash cycle to me.  5 or so consecutive lower highs now.  Momentum slowing at the moment, big sign to take those profits for all those who werent left holding their ballz after the last IR cut.

Cannot see how this could break 6000 without some profitable news or something big!  

At best, I think we could see a consolidation or a run to about 5800, assuming most bad news is behind.  However, cannot see that.  Subprime time lags mean this crisis is nowhere near ending.  Jobless rates sure to remain high and with commodities appearing to still have some strength, inflation is sure to be high (especially in relation to oil).  Not to mention, flooding the money supply never bodes well for inflation.  Unless news on these economic indicators are better than expected (who knows, could be with the way they manipulate their statistics).  

However, I sure know which way my money will be as this momentum changes.  Either on the short side, in gold or in the bank! Probably all of the above.  

Good luck!


----------



## tech/a (7 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> These are the ultimate questions. What determines a top or bottom before they happen? How do you enter or exit into strength, before the corner happens?
> 
> Would it be possible for you to share some of your secrets, Tech/a?
> 
> ...




No secrets just analysis.

All analysis including mine will ultimately be proven correct or in correct.
People often think technical analysis is meant to be predictive.
Its not its anticipatory. If you look back at the first chart I posted around the 18th I think it was my conclusion that this was nearing a bottom in the current move.I didnt catagorically know but analysis pointed to a possiblility and I was anticipating a bullish move into further analysis,which is yet to be proven.

The trick is what you or any of us do with our analysis.For me it is concerntration on long trades until this move is proven to be over,wether that is where my analysis has anticipated or not is yet to be proven.

As for the type of analysis for me its (longerterm) Elliott. Yes some fundamentals helped falling oil/gold. But not one governing form.
Shorter term its a combination of Elliott,VSA and conventional analysis.

When it comes to application well thats 14 yrs of learning/testing/and applying,hardly practical to write up in a paragraph.

Sorry I cant be of more help.

*MRC*
Dont know about a crash cycle but definately a longer term corrective move.
Some expect this to last for up to 7 yrs ( before a new high 6880+).


----------



## MRC & Co (8 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> *MRC*
> Some expect this to last for up to 7 yrs ( before a new high 6880+).




Where did you read that Tech?

I cannot say I am bullish, however 7 years before a new high.  Now that would be a depression!


----------



## tech/a (8 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Where did you read that Tech?
> 
> I cannot say I am bullish, however 7 years before a new high.  Now that would be a depression!




It was an Elliott count I saw from a few scources based upon a long term chart (Not sure the timeframe but may have been yearly) that showed a wave 4 corrective move lasting 7 yrs before moving to a new wave 5 which in itself had a projection longer than the wave 3 on that chart (Which is common on indexes).
I didnt keep a copy---should have as it would have generated discussion.
If I come across it I will post it here.


----------



## MRC & Co (8 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> a wave 4 corrective move lasting 7 yrs before moving to a new wave 5 which in itself had a projection longer than the wave 3 on that chart (Which is common on indexes).
> 
> I didnt keep a copy---should have as it would have generated discussion.
> If I come across it I will post it here.




Ive never seen an EW chart over nearly that longer timeframe!  

Interesting to hear wave 5 in indices is commonly longer than a wave 3.  

Sure would generate discussion!  

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (8 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Advanced Gets *Monthly* count.




Sorry about the size.
This link migh be better to view.

http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c68/sceptik/ASXwave4monthly.gif


----------



## wayneL (8 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Ive never seen an EW chart over nearly that longer timeframe!




FWIW, I think that's where EW works best as a prediction tool, though a blunt instrument to be sure. The Keynesian rabble in charge take the edge off of it with intervention. IMHO.


----------



## MRC & Co (8 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Keynesian rabble, ha ha, you sure hate those economists eh Wayne!  

Tech, cheers for the chart.

Just to confirm, this analysis states wave 4 will end anywhere from where it is currently, to the yellow/red elipse?  Isn't wave 4 generally shallow (a retracement of between 30-50%) and forms some kind of a triangle?

Also shouldn't impulse wave 3 be smoother, instead of having a dip of multiple years?  Also, in the guidelines, wave 1 & 5 are generally the same length, is this different with indices?  And corrective wave 4 retracement hasn't been annotated with any of ABC yet as its still a work in process right? 

Cheers


----------



## nizar (8 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

2014 lol.

Can we even predict what the market will do tomorrow? :


----------



## tech/a (9 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Keynesian rabble, ha ha, you sure hate those economists eh Wayne!
> 
> Tech, cheers for the chart.
> 
> ...





The elipse is dynamic it will move around with price.
Elliott is a dynamic analysis and this is why so many have a problem with its application. Its far easier for people to deal with finite points and hard and fast rules than it is to deal with fluid ones.

So currently this is what Elliott analysis is telling us.
There are general rules and yes the patterns are still in progress.


----------



## tech/a (9 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> 2014 lol.
> 
> Can we even predict what the market will do tomorrow? :




Yes.
Up
Down 
Or
Neutral


----------



## dutchie (9 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Love your analysis there Tech/a.

The one direction we can confidently say that the market can't go is *left*.

Cheers

dutchie


----------



## MRC & Co (9 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Elliott is a dynamic analysis and this is why so many have a problem with its application. Its far easier for people to deal with finite points and hard and fast rules than it is to deal with fluid ones.




Tell me about it, of all the methods I have studied (though only looked at EW briefly), its probably the hardest.  I just find so much creativity goes into EW, when my brain prefers as you say, finite points and hard and fast rules.


----------



## Whiskers (9 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Speaking about finite points and something easier to understand, it's probably time I explained one of my key concepts that I was going to explain some time ago, for the market not falling below 5,000 or 4,000 or even below 3,000 as some 'bad'  scenerios indicate... the (or at least my) concept of proportion. 

The market rose about 520% into the 87 crash. 

The 07 bull market rose about 260% to November.

Just looking at the chart I can see that the proportions of 87 and 07 peak markets are so different, so for me, just a fib retracement on this scale isn't enough.

The 87 market gave up about 50% from it's peak. 

But, since the 07 peak only rose 1/2 as much in (roughly) the same time period as 87... 260/520 = 1/2, and given the 87 crash was about as bad as it gets, then I would expect the 07 correction to be not worse than about 1/2 of the 87 crash, ie 25%.

So 6873 - 25% = 5155.

That is what I saw and still see as the worst case scenerio... about 5155.

The yellow lines are the long term standard deviation channel... which also played a supporting role.

I'd hate to think I'm backing the wrong horse, so any comment on the logic or maths?... supported by evidence of course.  :


----------



## motorway (9 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have said it a number of times eg below ( underline added )

87 was a bubble



and remember the long term P&F chart I posted a few times ..

enough work is enough work

classic action atm on a small scale

motorway










motorway said:


> Why should we be ?
> 
> The move since 2003....
> 
> ...


----------



## tech/a (9 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Rather than a crash analysis suggests that overtime the 50% retracement (Of the main wave 5 move) could occur.

There could be a prolonged period of lack luster price action.

Even so moves in the index of 1000+ points again overtime will provide opportunity for those working in shorter timeframes.

However those who hold longterm or those who are investors---I believe will be frustrated no end by the whipsawing of their capital bases with no appreciable growth.


----------



## motorway (9 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Rather than a crash analysis suggests that overtime the 50% retracement (Of the main wave 5 move) could occur.
> 
> There could be a prolonged period of lack luster price action.
> 
> ...




I think at these junctures

( emerging ) relative strength analysis will be important

Not based on points in time ( wrong ) .
But points of interest..

motorway


----------



## Whiskers (9 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> I have said it a number of times eg below ( underline added )
> 
> 87 was a bubble
> 
> ...




Yes, I remember, motorway. 

Seems nothing has happened to change your position either eh!

I'm being a bit provocative picking a bottom,  but I'm curious about what people think about the market holding above 5,000 closer to 6,000 in the short to medium term, say to the end of the year... a bit of a mid term review if you like, such as tech/a and motorways thoughts.


----------



## Sean K (12 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Halted at long term resistance. 

But still potential break from the downtrend. 

Might look a little different on a semilog, but not too much.  

Was that a bottom? 

hmmmmmm


----------



## eclipse (12 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It seems to be heading much lower over coming days, the news is bleak.  I think more government intervention (dropping rates further in the US) needs to take place before we see a real bottom.


----------



## Whiskers (12 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Was that a bottom?
> 
> hmmmmmm




I think others probably think so too... but, I'm (fairly) confidently calling it.  

I'm surprised there hasn't been a crowd climbing all over the rational of my main (worst case scenario) technical calc's. 

I think it's hard to fault because as motorway highlights, this time is not a bubble.



eclipse said:


> It seems to be heading much lower over coming days, the news is bleak.  I think more government intervention (dropping rates further in the US) needs to take place before we see a real bottom.




The markets had hit the top of their short term cycle and were about due for a sideways spell or a bit of a retrace... as indicated by stockastics.

So for me a little negative news will be amplified because the trend has just turned down as opposed to a few days ago headlines were saying that the market didn't seem to care about bad news, it still went up.

I'm fairly confident we won't see a lower low and I think another small Fed rate cut is still on, and will be the que for the US market to kick up, most likely to a new higher high.

I'm also still confident the USD will recover a bit in the near term (few months) as soon as the credit issues will allow pumping it up a bit and that will be the key to our market kicking on in earnest again.


----------



## motorway (12 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Monday should be revealing

XAO as been trying to go up 
since the first arrow


motorway


----------



## tech/a (12 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> I'm fairly confident we won't see a lower low and I think another small Fed rate cut is still on, and will be the que for the US market to kick up, most likely to a new higher high




And the world will live in peace and famine will be eradicated.
This is for the archives.

Oh and 
S-t-o-c-h-a-s-t-i-c-s


----------



## ShareIt (12 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey All,

I know this is for the XAO but considering that we get most of our lead from the US, I think we have a possible bear trap set coming into Monday / Tuesday... 

The options exp. is this week and Friday (yesterday) has just seen a big shift in market sentiment to the PUTs, mind you that the volume was reasonably lighter this week on the retracement.... 

It also looks like we have a possible inverted head and shoulders on the DOW starting from 1st Jan... up until now the market has been shaking off all bad news, so for this sell off to happen seems very much like a trap and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a run to the 13,500 mark... 

As for a new low.... I wouldn't rule that out just yet, although I don't think it will come just yet either... just a heads up, anyone else share this view?


----------



## MRC & Co (12 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ShareIt said:


> ... up until now the market has been shaking off all bad news




I thought last week would be a turning point downwards for the US, however was quiet impressed with its resilience.

Fridays low close and weakness all day (Monday generally follows on from Friday), is a worry however.  Sentiment poll I last saw indicated bulls above 50%.........

Other than the fact it's April, I don't see much more strong seasonality in place until the end of the month and the Fed decision.

Things look in trouble to me.  My long positions were pretty much all liquidated on Friday.  Only BHP and EQN remain.

See how we go.

Cheers


----------



## ShareIt (12 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Other than the fact it's April, I don't see much more strong seasonality in place until the end of the month and the Fed decision.




Thanks for the input  

I think there is some positive bias and that would be that the expectations have just been lowered for this week's reporting... What I mean by this is, with GE off the mark, analysts will likely lower the expectations of reporting for companies this week, and if we get a better than expected results from a few of these companies, that will kick start the rally.... 

Let's see... either way it will be exciting


----------



## MRC & Co (12 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ShareIt said:


> Let's see... either way it will be exciting




Yeh, at least it will be fun!

I seem to have been in synch with the market lately and picking the turning points pretty well.  Though, we all know that can't happen too often, so my good run is probably coming to an end 

See how long my sentiments last.....


----------



## wildmanchris (13 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> I thought last week would be a turning point downwards for the US, however was quiet impressed with its resilience.
> 
> Fridays low close and weakness all day (Monday generally follows on from Friday), is a worry however.  Sentiment poll I last saw indicated bulls above 50%.........
> 
> ...




I'm still liquid as well - there may be a few good numbers coming out but i'm worried what the banks are going to say when their numbers are reported.  If they are bad could see a wave down.  I think friday was a turning point for some more losses IMHO.

Itching to see the bottom though.

From bloomberg:

How much more is going to be written down?


----------



## treefrog (13 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

agree motorway and whiskers, 4yr rise is not a bubble - at least not a traditional one. Oz economy is good so why the savage correction?
solely US based for mine - their engine room has been stuffed for years but propped by international investment there and ongoing support for that investment - so there is the bubble
problem is how far they unwind and how far we are sucked down with them.
our downer has been an exhaustion break and quite savage.
currently in consolidation with still more downside pressure.
do not think your percentage comparisons are relevant whiskers as fundamental reasons for each correction are fundamentally different.
looking at the relative price movement on the Oz market it is hard not to see a continuance down to firmer support at the 50% level - over the next six weeks or next six months? sorry don't know.
US PE's are bad (20) and getting worse so a lot of pressure still emerging


----------



## ShareIt (13 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wildmanchris said:


> I'm still liquid as well - there may be a few good numbers coming out but i'm worried what the banks are going to say when their numbers are reported.  If they are bad could see a wave down.  I think friday was a turning point for some more losses IMHO.
> 
> Itching to see the bottom though.
> 
> ...




I think banks might have some ugly figures but I also think they will stress more the fact that this is nearing the end of the crisis as they have already done (Meryl Lynch and JP). I personally believe they are pulling legs or don't really know but want to bring stability. So in the short term, the path of least resistance is up.

To add, GE had some bad results which shouldn't have been a great shock considering it was their financial area that was to blame. If all other financial banks are reporting losses then what makes them immune? but the good to take out of it is that expectations this week will not be as high and this could give the boost


----------



## prescient (13 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi everyone. My first post on this forum and a fantastic wealth of information and knowledge to be found on here!

For what my opinion may be worth - 2twocents!? ) I unfortunately believe that we will see the all ords progress lower from here - IMHO the heavy weighting of financials in our Aussie index is going to make this inevitible... Based on the financial's failure to hold their recent gains and the likelihood of further financial fallout to come.


----------



## IFocus (13 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I think others probably think so too... but, I'm (fairly) confidently calling it.
> 
> I'm surprised there hasn't been a crowd climbing all over the rational of my main (worst case scenario) technical calc's.
> 
> ...





Hi Whiskers the XAO rise is not a bubble (I think) *but* and its a big but the rise has been driven largely by an expansion of credit both here and obviously globally as the perception of a low risk environment prevailed and there was a large amount of spending on what ever.

The perception of the risk environment now at least to me is that its now high risk and until the credit and credit losses are unwound we head lower with bounces along the way.

I cannot see how we will not break the recent low or at the very best bounce around like a yo yo at that level.

We will need to head into another credit expansion of some sort some where before a serious rise is achieved or sustained.

As always only an opinion I don't really expect any of us to actually get the call right but it is a great puzzle I just love markets..........


----------



## Sean K (13 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prescient said:


> Hi everyone. My first post on this forum and a fantastic wealth of information and knowledge to be found on here!
> 
> For what my opinion may be worth - 2twocents!? ) I unfortunately believe that we will see the all ords progress lower from here - IMHO the heavy weighting of financials in our Aussie index is going to make this inevitible... Based on the financial's failure to hold their recent gains and the likelihood of further financial fallout to come.



I'm still unsure, but hope the world has woken up to the systemic problems and systems, and things are being put in place to turn things around. Since there's so many bears about, it'll be a time to be bullish again shortly! 

This isn't semi log, but there seems to be a little risk in a H&S setting up here, with a target around the 4500 mark, on a break down. 

Having said that, I also think there's a chance that 5150 ish support was a bottom as posted earlier. 

Will just depend on how it responds to the S&R lines clearly in the chart. 

My natural instincts are expecting support to hold and a break to the upside but that's just hope probably. 

Perhaps WPs key time line point around 11 and 21 March was a bottom, and not the top anticipated..


----------



## dhukka (13 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> do not think your percentage comparisons are relevant whiskers as fundamental reasons for each correction are fundamentally different.




That's the key point, the comparison is of little value and therefore the analysis. The bubble that those can't see or choose not to acknowledge is the massive bubble in credit that has underpinned an increasing dependency on debt to fuel consumption and investment that in turn has driven record high and unsustainable profit margins for corporations. Australians and the Australian economy have been eager participants and thus will not be immune from reversion to the mean.


----------



## MRC & Co (13 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> The bubble that those can't see or choose not to acknowledge is the massive bubble in credit that has underpinned an increasing dependency on debt to fuel consumption and investment that in turn has driven record high and unsustainable profit margins for corporations. Australians and the Australian economy have been eager participants and thus will not be immune from reversion to the mean.




Yeh, agree, this is what will ultimately drive any move in the long-run and its not looking promising for investors at the moment.  Only more chop!  

That being said, I am glad we have the strong commodity sector here!


----------



## wayneL (13 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> That's the key point, the comparison is of little value and therefore the analysis. The* bubble that those can't see or choose not to acknowledge is the massive bubble in credit that has underpinned an increasing dependency on debt to fuel consumption and investment that in turn has driven record high and unsustainable profit margins for corporations.* Australians and the Australian economy have been eager participants and thus will not be immune from reversion to the mean.






IFocus said:


> Hi Whiskers the XAO rise is not a bubble (I think) *but* and its a big but the *rise has been driven largely by an expansion of credit both here and obviously globally* as the perception of a low risk environment prevailed and there was a large amount of spending on what ever.




Guys, this is the point that is continually overlooked by "the all is well" brigade.

When economists (and muppets at trading home in their pajamas, scratching their balls in front of a screen) consider that growth in the economy this century has been entirely driven by expansion of loose and easy credit, rather than productivity, they get very worried.

I sense that those in high places who overlook this are doing so intentionally. If they are so seriously cognitively biased that they don't actually see it, then we are in deeper doo-doo. That is a big possibilty.

Gu'mints so far have done nothing other than try to prop up the credit status quo, when we really need urgent action on making economies productive again.

We need to get rid of these perverted Keynesian t0ssers rather urgently. The big problem is that universities are churning out more perverted Keynesian t0ssers. The true thinkers that come through the system won't get positions where they count.

Best have @ss covered for future probabilities.


----------



## Nyden (13 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> (and muppets at trading home in their pajamas, scratching their balls in front of a screen)




Off topic, but this has probably been the 4th+ time you've made that descriptive portrayal of home traders  Is that all you do today? Invest in a scratching device, & a set of clothes! : Many of our female traders will be quite upset about your anatomical assumptions as well 


Oh, right; should add some analysis. Err, umm - US markets were slaughtered on Friday, expect the same for us tomorrow ... futures point to it as well. I believe that the recent push-up in commodity stocks will also come down very quickly throughout this week ... just a theory. As it was more based on sentiment / confidence returning (of the bottom perhaps being reached) ... than actual fundamentals.


----------



## wayneL (13 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Off topic, but this has probably been the 4th+ time you've made that descriptive portrayal of home traders  Is that all you do today? Invest in a scratching device, & a set of clothes! : Many of our female traders will be quite upset about your anatomical assumptions as well




Yeah I suppose that's getting a bit tired. But, it's bad form to add to self deprecation... and you miss the point of the portrayal. 

I'll be sure to highlight one of your many foibles in the near future. 

At least I've balls to scratch... have you?


----------



## vishalt (13 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Soo futures are pointing down 83 points to the 5400 level, -1.5%. 

Unsurprisingly, since we love to suck fine American parts (either that or our market is owned by offshore money), we'll go down an easy 2.2% just like the Dow has IMO. 

I'm wondering what will get hit tomorrow because I had the feeling that the financial slump was mostly priced in but I guess I'm wrong! We don't really have any multinationals as diversified as GE, but oh well, we'll just go down anyway hey.


----------



## happyjack (14 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The "Aussie 200" is going horizontal and its Bolinger has narrowed right down, It is going to do something exciting its just a matter of whether it has got tired of hitting resistance and is going up or whether it is going to break through. You pays your money and you takes your choice.

Happyjack


----------



## prescient (14 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> I'm wondering what will get hit tomorrow because I had the feeling that the financial slump was mostly priced in but I guess I'm wrong! We don't really have any multinationals as diversified as GE, but oh well, we'll just go down anyway hey.




I think in this market it is really difficult (and dangerous!) to analyse current share values and conclude that _anything_ has been 'priced in'. The biggest issue we face is that we don't know what lies ahead - inflation, recession, stagflation?!, and big debt writedowns (almost $750bn more to go according to the IMF's guess!!) all contribute to this uncertainty. Industrials and discretionaries seem to be as precipitous as the financials right now... and that's scary.


----------



## Whiskers (14 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> do not think your percentage comparisons are relevant whiskers as fundamental reasons for each correction are fundamentally different.




Yes, agree the (economic) fundamentals are always different.



> looking at the relative price movement on the Oz market it is hard not to see a continuance down to firmer support at the 50% level - over the next six weeks or next six months? sorry don't know.
> US PE's are bad (20) and getting worse so a lot of pressure still emerging




But how many of us have looked at markets and perceived things like this. I know I have.

*And what of the increased debt driving profits arguement? * 
In the 87 crash PE ratios were very high... based on nothing more than hot air from entrenpeneurs. At least this time there is something behind the PE's albeit debt based assets that have fallen in value... but will eventually go up again. 

There is much more that could be said about that, but for me it's just how modern capitalist society is going :sheep: (not me though)... 
the changing dynamics of what most people want and the lengths they are prepared to go to to keep up with the jones's. :sword:


For me the bottom line for the movement in markets is not so much the fundamental economic analysis/outlook, but more pier pressure perception.

Most people don't want to get left behind in social or technological trends or material possessions and conversely most don't want to be the last holding the parcel of falling income/assets when the music finally stops.

The yanks won't tollerate a falling USD forever, importing inflation, making overseas travel/holidays more expensive :twak: and eroding their economic status on a PPP basis. :viking:

Then the AUD will ease a bit and our market will :jump:


----------



## Whiskers (14 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> *And what of the increased debt driving profits arguement? *



Take 2.  (Just because we tend to take a lead from the US)

Thats mainly confined to the financials... and probably many consumers.

An observation I made a while ago and reiterated below by a couple of leading intellectuals  ... is that many businesses are not burdened with debt, nor is the ability to raise debt a problem for them.

But as these fine gentlemen point out it's a bit of a see-saw battle to see who is winning, ie how much damage the financials will do in the meantime.

I think once people see that the US isn't going to evaporate away and China and India etc continue growth, the XAO will outshine the US markets again. 



> *Recession Has Bernanke, Greenspan Agreeing Companies Have Cash *
> 
> By Rich Miller
> 
> ...


----------



## vishalt (14 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prescient said:


> I think in this market it is really difficult (and dangerous!) to analyse current share values and conclude that _anything_ has been 'priced in'. The biggest issue we face is that we don't know what lies ahead - inflation, recession, stagflation?!, and big debt writedowns (almost $750bn more to go according to the IMF's guess!!) all contribute to this uncertainty. Industrials and discretionaries seem to be as precipitous as the financials right now... and that's scary.



But the underlying quality of our banks compared to the US is robust, no bank has reported a net *LOSS* for as long as the eye can see. 

No Aussie bank has had a $24 billion sub-prime writedown whereas all the US majors have and they have fallen less than our banks which is disturbing. 

And either way, for a bank, no matter inflation/recession/stagflation - banking and groceries are the 2 things we will always need.


----------



## wildmanchris (14 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Im assuming that you mean no Australian Bank has ever reported a loss.

Which Bank?
From Bloomberg


----------



## davo8 (14 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prescient said:


> I think in this market it is really difficult (and dangerous!) to analyse current share values and conclude that _anything_ has been 'priced in'. The biggest issue we face is that we don't know what lies ahead - inflation, recession, stagflation?!, and big debt writedowns (almost $750bn more to go according to the IMF's guess!!) all contribute to this uncertainty. Industrials and discretionaries seem to be as precipitous as the financials right now... and that's scary.




I agree. The losses worldwide will certainly be higher than that, and who knows where they will land?

Avoid financials & discretionary (recession possibilty) and anything where the business model depends on debt (eg infrastructure). Choose from energy, health, tech & materials. Or stick to cash.


----------



## Broadway (15 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

While I sit at home in my pyjamas scratching my balls, Im going to be brave and publicly call a short term bottom.

The last 2 days reminded me alot of March 17,18 with the weekend panic and the flat accumulating Monday.

Possibly all the future bad company reports are baked in from Friday nights hammering.

Just wondering if anyone else agreed or disagreed?


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I will throw my  in.

I said yesterday in the SPI thread I'm was looking for up afternoons this week. So I'm with you.


----------



## tech/a (15 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Disagree.

So far been copy book. 3 waves up in the last up move.
Completing a Wave B in an A,B,C correction.
This could now quite possibly be wave 1 in the 5 wave wave C.

While 5657 (XJO) remains intact then so does this analysis.


----------



## wayneL (15 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'll throw my  in with Broadway and TH.

Looking at option data, my conclusion is that the US (and hence the XAO) has run out of fair dinkum sellers. 

Have a look at VIX, it's just a tad complacent next to the price action, there is not a lot of fear, just basically reflecting realized volatility... bullish at this point of proceedings.

PUT/CALL index, while picking up the swing sell, is still in buy mode.

Something unexpected will need to happen to take out the low, and unless there are more "big" surprises, it will be the numbers next and subsequent quarters that will take out this market.

Meanwhile, US investors are falling for the spin from Wall St.


----------



## vishalt (15 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prescient said:


> and big debt writedowns (almost $750bn more to go according to the IMF's guess!!) all contribute to this uncertainty. Industrials and discretionaries seem to be as precipitous as the financials right now... and that's scary.



Aren't they the fools who forecast such bullish world growth last year?

If they say more losses are to come then the sub-prime mess is probably over lol


----------



## Kauri (15 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vishalt said:


> Aren't they the fools who forecast such bullish world growth last year?
> 
> If they say more losses are to come then the sub-prime mess is probably over lol





Yep!!! It was all polony anyways...  



> Babcock and Brown - $22.50 BNB has very little exposure to the sub-prime, and sub-prime was a balloney excuse to dump financial stocks which have done very well anyway. I bought into it as it kept falling. BNB profit surged by 65% as well as giving an improved outlook, if it falls more I'll simply buy, and same if it rises past key resistance levels.


----------



## JTLP (16 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

3 big days coming up on the US economic calender:

- Tues = Housing Market Index
- Weds = Consumer Price Index + Industrial Production
- Thurs = Jobless claims

Whats the possible bearing of all these...hmmm


----------



## Whiskers (16 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



JTLP said:


> 3 big days coming up on the US economic calender:
> 
> - Tues = Housing Market Index
> - Weds = Consumer Price Index + Industrial Production
> ...




Bearing... probably North... maybe NE. 

Blame kauri for keeping me up for that one. :


----------



## wavepicker (16 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Bearing... probably North... maybe NE.
> 
> Blame kauri for keeping me up for that one. :




Hope so, went long 2 days ago on financials with options. May the winds blow our way!!


----------



## davo8 (16 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Have a look at VIX, it's just a tad complacent next to the price action, there is not a lot of fear, just basically reflecting realized volatility... bullish at this point of proceedings.




You're obviously not reading the US news & blogs I am. Apart from the fact I've never seen a bear market this short, you've got (a) frozen credit market (b) financials going bust and laying off staff (c) consumer downturn (d) employment downturn (e) shopping mall closures & bankruptcies (f) high inflation, oil & food prices (g) jingle-mail on prime mortgages.

Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?

Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.


----------



## wayneL (16 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> You're obviously not reading the US news & blogs I am. Apart from the fact I've never seen a bear market this short, you've got (a) frozen credit market (b) financials going bust and laying off staff (c) consumer downturn (d) employment downturn (e) shopping mall closures & bankruptcies (f) high inflation, oil & food prices (g) jingle-mail on prime mortgages.
> 
> Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?
> 
> Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.




LOLOL

Davo,

You've obviously not read the great bulk of my posts. Understandable as you don't seem to have been around long.... but I 1,000,000% agree with you. My view for trading is short term, I don't argue with the tape.

But long term, the Anglo economies are rogered. My point is that the "majority" are currently hypnotized by "the all is well", bobblehead propaganda. There are not enough new sellers at the moment to take this lower.

Meanwhile, the pollyannas are grinding it higher. Earnings reality will eventually sink in, but not yet.

Cheers, 
always nice to have another bear around. 

PS







davo8 said:


> (g) jingle-mail on prime mortgages.



LOL


----------



## Broadway (16 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Im going to be brave and publicly call a short term bottom.




My original post did mention short term, I should have quantified that by saying that I was thinking in the next week or two.

We all expect the sky to fall later this year.


----------



## ShareIt (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> You're obviously not reading the US news & blogs I am. Apart from the fact I've never seen a bear market this short, you've got (a) frozen credit market (b) financials going bust and laying off staff (c) consumer downturn (d) employment downturn (e) shopping mall closures & bankruptcies (f) high inflation, oil & food prices (g) jingle-mail on prime mortgages.
> 
> Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?
> 
> Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.




The pitfall of following the wall street hype, a road that often leads to losses... you are right, it is all negative, but the charts points up in the short term, so trade up


----------



## wayneL (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> davo8 said:
> 
> 
> > You're obviously not reading the US news & blogs I am. Apart from the fact I've never seen a bear market this short, you've got (a) frozen credit market (b) financials going bust and laying off staff (c) consumer downturn (d) employment downturn (e) shopping mall closures & bankruptcies (f) high inflation, oil & food prices (g) jingle-mail on prime mortgages.
> ...




More short term analysis :

Have a look at VIX today; it is ploughing through recent lows and relative to the news flow and where the index is, this is a relatively complacent market, but not at extremes of complacency... Bullish.

Equity Put/Call is in still in a medium term buy signal and US investor dudes and dudesses are putting a hell of a lot more weight on good news than bad news.

The punters still don't believe the real economy is in trouble.

We goin' higher.

Caveat: Unless the sky starts falling very soon. :


----------



## chops_a_must (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> More short term analysis :
> 
> *Have a look at VIX today; it is ploughing through recent lows and relative to the news flow and where the index is, this is a relatively complacent market, but not at extremes of complacency... Bullish.*
> 
> ...




Was speaking to MRC about this specific thing just a few seconds ago, before you posted this. 

Major major breakdown on the VIX tonight.

Time for some hail mary plays? Thinking about it seriously...


----------



## MRC & Co (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Time for some hail mary plays? Thinking about it seriously...




Might need a higher divine power in this environment, perhaps an our father will do :engel:


----------



## wayneL (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was thinking something more secular and hedonistic.


----------



## Kauri (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> More short term analysis :
> 
> Have a look at VIX today; it is ploughing through recent lows and relative to the news flow and where the index is, this is a relatively complacent market, but not at extremes of complacency... Bullish.
> 
> ...




 Aahh., but they depend on those outstanding pillars of financial turpitude, the anylists...  the trick is to call for earnings to be around say 60c... but they surprise to the upside and come in at 64c... great news, lets rally hard on that, things are not as bad as they seem.. ooops, yes the earnings in the corresponding period were 140c and yes they have more than halved, but shhh, thats not the way we look at things..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ShareIt (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If you have a look on the DOW, we are coming very close to an inverted head and sholders neckline... if that breaks, hello XAO!


----------



## Edwood (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9985.htm

credit crises over then?  looks like its all been a big wave 4...


----------



## Kauri (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> http://www.safehaven.com/article-9985.htm
> 
> credit crises over then? looks like its all been a big wave 4...





 Back in NZ there seems to have been a lot of small waves... building up to a biggie??? 
  Here's another to add to the list..  
* NZ...  Investors in an AMP Capital Investor fund have foregone their quarterly payment as the global credit crisis fallout continues.*

AMP Capital's Strategy Income Partnership fund posted a slightly negative 0.08 per cent return for the March quarter.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/dominionpost/4483355a6034.html 

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.




How do you know when its a Bear market? we get no good news.

How do you know when its Turned to a Bull market? we get no good news and rally.

Whats the diff?? Its what the punters are doing not what the fools are writing about. (don't flame me for calling Bull I'm talking the swings not the long trend. OK flame me is you would like)


----------



## CFD (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> ~~
> Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?
> Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.




That is the question, has everything your refer to been built into the price already? I do not see anything in the rest of this post or subsequent posts that detracts from wayneL's view that it has.

A stock does not always fall on the release of bad news, especially if the news is already know to those who do most of the buying and selling volumes. As Kauri said if a figure of 60c return has been factored in and the result turns out to be 64c why would the price go down, notwithstanding it's a poor result compared to the return of a year ago. It's not that unusual for a company to announce a record profit result only to see the share price go down (usually makes for a good divi play) presumably because better results had already been factored in.


----------



## Edwood (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> Back in NZ there seems to have been a lot of small waves... building up to a biggie???
> Here's another to add to the list..
> * NZ...  Investors in an AMP Capital Investor fund have foregone their quarterly payment as the global credit crisis fallout continues.*
> 
> ...




cheers Kauri - I think the biggest worry here has to be the property market.  Stats came out a while ago showing that the biggest sector here in terms of numbers employed is 'property' - not just builders & estate agents but when you include the associated services such as legal, planning, mortgage broking, cleaning, lawn mowing, letting agents etc etc etc we're talking more than agriculture & manufacturing.   Immigration is down, rates are up & holding - the property slump is well under way...


----------



## davo8 (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> LOLOL
> You've obviously not read the great bulk of my posts. ...
> always nice to have another bear around.
> PSLOL




Oops. Sorry. You're right. Mea culpa. I read your latest as eager to dive back in as if nothing had happened.

Regardless of the US gloom & doom, my reading is mostly bear here too. The XAO, XJO, XFJ etc all making lower lows and well below the MA x-over. Only energy, health and materials relatively unscathed.

Even if this was normal cyclical, bear markets last say 10-14 months (and 1987 didn't hit bottom for 5 years) so we couldn't expect to avoid losing money with buy and hold until late this year and can't expect too many trends to follow either.

So what do you trade if you're not into short runs against the trend? Small miners? Penny dreadfuls?


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> So what do you trade if you're not into short runs against the trend? Small miners? Penny dreadfuls?




I believe the saying goes there is always a bull market somewhere. Ya just gotta look harder.


----------



## Santob (18 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What just happened to the XAO ?? a 100pt spike?


----------



## Broadway (18 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Santob said:


> What just happened to the XAO ?? a 100pt spike?




I think it's because miners have been going up and up forever lately (25% in a month for bhp), and finally broke their trend today. The RIO/BHP takeover was sweetened and made public yesterday, which is always a good idea to sell news that becomes public.

But im just guessing.

Aussie banks and miners started declining yesterday in fact. Which is a little odd because the US is sailing up just fine. Especially their banks were up 2-3% last night.

There was heavy selling of the spi right from the minute it opened, so it must have been some influence that started before the day began.


----------



## MRC & Co (18 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have no idea what that spike was, looks like an error though.  Too clean.


----------



## Santob (18 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Most likely an error, it went back up to the open price.


----------



## Broadway (21 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think predictions are fun!

That last one week rally will end tonight. South for a few days now.

Vix/Trin/put-call ratio and bonds all suggest a turnaround imo.

Plus for the fundy's - bad B of A news.

Anyone else got an opinion on where the XAO will finish at the end of this week?


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My Crystal ball is saying UP. Some particular aggressive buying today on the SPI. Not your usual local swingers playing the game today. Would not be surprised to see the highest weekly close in 10 Weeks come Friday.
How's that for a prediction?


----------



## wavepicker (21 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Posted this chart 1 week ago when market was trending down. So far so good but unlikely it will finsih up as depicted!!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=283151&postcount=129


----------



## ColB (21 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some say up, some say down, but can someone please tell me why the all ords would drop down to the 4800 mark.  Does that mean 15-20% lower based on todays value.  I've just seen my portfolio creep up from being nearly $50k down to now just $20k down.  If the all ords are going to head back to under 5000 I think I might need to bail out of many stocks soon.  What to do??  Any advice appreciated all you guru's.  ColB


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ColB said:


> If the all ords are going to head back to under 5000 I think I might need to bail out of many stocks soon.  What to do??  Any advice appreciated all you guru's.




All just personal opinions/guesses i.e. not investment advice. for all you know we haven't even $50,ooo between us.


----------



## nomore4s (21 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> My Crystal ball is saying UP. Some particular aggressive buying today on the SPI. Not your usual local swingers playing the game today. Would not be surprised to see the highest weekly close in 10 Weeks come Friday.
> How's that for a prediction?




I agree TH.

Todays bar looks quite promising, strong up day, close at the high, increasing volume after Fridays low vol down day.

In an earlier post I wanted to see some support around the 5350-5400 area for an on going bullish view, we seem to have got that.

Now need to overcome the resistance at 5700, but atm it looks promising, but as we all know that could change tomorrow.

PS - Would still expect 5200 to be tested at some stage, but bullish for the moment.


----------



## Whiskers (21 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> I agree TH.
> 
> Todays bar looks quite promising, strong up day, close at the high, increasing volume after Fridays low vol down day.
> 
> ...




Yeah, I concur.

But, these EW's are a concern re medium term outlook. As per a conversation with tech/a earlier in thread, it seems we need to get a bit over 6,000 this leg up to reduce the EW prospect for their low below 5,000.

I'm still thinking up toward 6,000 + for a couple or three weeks and... 



> PS - Would still expect 5200 to be tested at some stage, but bullish for the moment.




another low, but not lower low about late May.

I'm still bullish for the rest of this year, but timing of kick is dependent on when the USD strengthens a bit. I'm thinking the USD/EUR may have to pop up to 1.62/3 to precipitate this.


----------



## nomore4s (22 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?




I don't know if the bad news is completely priced in or not, but I do know the bad news is not having the same effect it was. So I would have to guess it has been priced in to some extent.

We will need some thing new to get us to a new low I would think, and I'm sure it's not far away (just for all you bears).


----------



## Kauri (22 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not the XAO butt...  if you tink the 200 follows the SP...   finely balanced.. as opposed to myself who is finely unbalanced.. I am told..

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## CFD (22 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's a girl!


----------



## MRC & Co (22 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ColB said:


> Some say up, some say down, but can someone please tell me why the all ords would drop down to the 4800 mark.  Does that mean 15-20% lower based on todays value.  I've just seen my portfolio creep up from being nearly $50k down to now just $20k down.  If the all ords are going to head back to under 5000 I think I might need to bail out of many stocks soon.  What to do??  Any advice appreciated all you guru's.  ColB




Cannot give advice, I trade on a day to day basis.  Price action, so I do not believe in predictions (though like all, I do like to make them ).  But more just for the fun, I never trade them if price does not go according to plan.

4800 is based on one simple premise, company profits.  F/A at it's finest and I tend to agree.  When this could be hit, no idea.


----------



## ShareIt (22 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ColB said:


> Some say up, some say down, but can someone please tell me why the all ords would drop down to the 4800 mark.  Does that mean 15-20% lower based on todays value.  I've just seen my portfolio creep up from being nearly $50k down to now just $20k down.  If the all ords are going to head back to under 5000 I think I might need to bail out of many stocks soon.  What to do??  Any advice appreciated all you guru's.  ColB




Perhaps hold on for a little longer because the buyers have seemed to taken back control as of yesterday. Today that 5,600 level was defended quite well... and looking at the US, same story, the buyers have taken control and defended it so far. A good close below the 5,600 level might be a time to cash in (a good close meaning a 50 - 100 point close below, that way you avoid a possible down fake)....  goodluck


----------



## davo8 (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ColB said:


> Some say up, some say down, but can someone please tell me why the all ords would drop down to the 4800 mark.  ColB




1. Because the fundamentals depend on company profits. If there is bad news to come, as insiders get it prices will drop.
2. Because the cashflow depends on whether investors as a whole are entering or leaving the market. Cash at 8%+ will keep some people out (including me).
3. Because the charts say the trend is down. There is no bottom (yet); there is resistance overhead around 5700-5900 and support at 5200; and no-one knows which will hold.
4. Because the known bad news is priced in, but the unknown bad news yet to come is not. The US markets are levitating against a general downturn. I believe a major drop in the US would see our 5200 level fail, and 4800 is the next natural target.


----------



## Junior (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> 2. Because the cashflow depends on whether investors as a whole are entering or leaving the market. Cash at 8%+ will keep some people out (including me).




Remember, however, that the cash rate in the US is next to zero, and the XAO is still following the US market.


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Punters she going to pop its head over this resistance? I Would like to order a tight range day tomorrow with an pop Friday morning please.


----------



## ShareIt (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Punters she going to pop its head over this resistance? I Would like to order a tight range day tomorrow with an pop Friday morning please.




One pop coming up, but you will have to wait till monday.... i got to serve the Anzac customers first on Friday, fully booked restaurant so will be closed all day


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ShareIt said:


> One pop coming up, but you will have to wait till monday.... i got to serve the Anzac customers first on Friday, fully booked restaurant so will be closed all day




Whoops!! 

OK lets see if I can organize the Big Boyz to make a bang tomorrow.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Punters she going to pop its head over this resistance? I Would like to order a tight range day tomorrow with an pop Friday morning please.




Being a volume tracker TH, can we use the Dow as a close proxy correlation for the XAO? Trying hard to pop without volume support? What would tip the Dow over the resistance? Or is it capitulation time again?


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Being a volume tracker TH, can we use the Dow as a close proxy correlation for the XAO? Trying hard to pop without volume support? What would tip the Dow over the resistance? Or is it capitulation time again?




Yes its at an important level for sure. Interestingly the open interest on the SPI had a HUGE jump on Friday & Monday to back up my big boyz stepping up theory. Over 22,000 contracts added during that time. 

Interesting that the equities vol has dropped off while the Futures has picked up or been constant in the case of the US. Punters been scared off just as we push up? Always hard to figure if a rise on small vol after a big drop is a positive (no more sellers) or a negative (no real conviction from the masses)

In any case I believe that the market has been controlled by the Futures since this meltdown started and for once it looks, just a bit, that the big Futures swingers may have swapped sides.

But you would think the shorts haven't lost control yet. (hows that for a fence sit?)


----------



## MRC & Co (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Always hard to figure if a rise on small vol after a big drop is a positive (no more sellers) or a negative (no real conviction from the masses)




After a large drop, better to see volume high or pick up on narrow ranges if consolidating or larger upward ranges if pushing higher again (either way, best to see volume I beleive).  Indicates accumulation.  From what I have read and observed.  The ranges and close are key.


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> After a large drop, better to see volume high or pick up on narrow ranges if consolidating or larger upward ranges if pushing higher again (either way, best to see volume I beleive).  Indicates accumulation.  From what I have read and observed.  The ranges and close are key.




Yes BUT,

Has the accumulation happened on the drop? A meltdown like we have been through has shaken the weak and sent them packing. Who is left. The un-leveraged, patient and strong. Have they been on the end of a bargain? Time will tell.

Motorway etc would maybe able to explain things better. But have we had accumulation or capitulation or distribution on this drop. And who has been on the other end.


----------



## wavepicker (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some possible short term weakness for this evening??


----------



## Whiskers (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Some possible short term weakness for this evening??




I find myself agreeing with you again, WP.

I've been thinking we won't kick on too hard until next week after the FOMC meet and probably top out this leg up in early May. 

I see you have a 5 there, so if this wave is toppy, how many wavelets  (if that is the right term) in a sub wave down can we expect... in a week?


----------



## ShareIt (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Being a volume tracker TH, can we use the Dow as a close proxy correlation for the XAO? Trying hard to pop without volume support? What would tip the Dow over the resistance? Or is it capitulation time again?




I think we have already broken the resistance on the DOW, but not the S&P... If you look at the DOW, we have an inverted head and shoulders pattern and a break of the neckline. The last day candle is sitting beautifully on this neckline on lighter volume pullback... volume was slightly higher than the previous day, but if you look at the intraday moves, that volume came at the end of the day to take the DOW off the neckline... this inverted head and sholders pattern is very bullish in my opinion and a measurement from the bottom of the head to that neckline sees a run of the DOW up to the 200 MA... all the "smart money" has bought already at the second double bottom (huge volume spikes), so if we see huge spikes in volume on this next way up, I see this as the big boys feeding and to take caution of a possible reversal... but for now it looks like we are going up


----------



## ShareIt (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Some possible short term weakness for this evening??




I would say that this is a very bullish pattern... an ascending triangle.... although the MACD is slacking off, note that we are not making higher higher's on the XAO at point 3 and 5, so this cancels out a negative divergence so far... perhaps one more pullback to the rising support and then a pop up


----------



## tech/a (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In answering TH's question



> But have we had accumulation or capitulation or distribution on this drop. And who has been on the other end.




I have perhaps a different way of finding an answer.
Rather than looking at the index I'll have a flick around the main drivers of the index.

BHP,RIO,Banks,WOW, to name a few.
I'll turn their periodicy to *WEEKLY.*
Flick through 10 or so charts---do you see strength---weakness or flat?

In the Weeklies I'm seeing flat no conviction.

Now flick over to *MONTHLY.*
What do you see.
I see no conviction,I see weakness.

I see volume but no price increase (Appreciable)
Where there is----BHP as an example I'm seeing it run out of puff.

Little effort.


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Some possible short term weakness for this evening??




Interestingly wavepicker that pattern looks diff when only using cash data.


----------



## Whiskers (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ShareIt said:


> I would say that this is a very bullish pattern... an ascending triangle.... although the MACD is slacking off, note that we are not making higher higher's on the XAO at point 3 and 5, so this cancels out a negative divergence so far... *perhaps one more pullback to the rising support and then a pop up :*2twocents




That's what I was trying to say. 

The extra volume coming from a (presumed) FOMC rate cut.


----------



## wavepicker (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

TH, Whiskers, ShareIt,

I am not sure either, just mulling over the pattern myself. In EW parlance this pattern might be a "leading diagonal" which means it might pullback to the span of wave 2 before heading north again OR if it's a more bullish pattern as ShareIt is talking about it could be a series of nesting  1-2's . The only problem with the bullish case is that the individual drives up are 3 waves which are corrective not impulsive.

TH, my data is not cash data, I would have more faith yours I think.

Looking at the 4 Hr chart, it concurs with the 1hr chart, i.e we get a minor pullback and then the market heads north until it reaches the next cyclical  extreme between 5750-5800


----------



## ShareIt (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> That's what I was trying to say.
> 
> The extra volume coming from a (presumed) FOMC rate cut.




LOL... sorry, didn't catch you


----------



## wavepicker (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I find myself agreeing with you again, WP.
> 
> I've been thinking we won't kick on too hard until next week after the FOMC meet and probably top out this leg up in early May.
> 
> I see you have a 5 there, so if this wave is toppy, how many wavelets  (if that is the right term) in a sub wave down can we expect... in a week?





Hello Whiskers, I suspect this would be a short correction perhaps 2-3 days?? One would expected a 3 wave correction.

Refer to chart attached. Cycle point blue 3(shown by red arrow) due any day now.

Cheers


----------



## Broadway (23 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I guess we can all agree we are at a critical point.

Every move up is resisted, and every move down is supported.

The USD index just made a bottom with volume, and the associated currencies have reversed.

Gold and oil will fall now. Oil loves to bounce between the 10's, so will likely fall to $110.

How these events effect the xao, im not sure. But last time the usd made a bottom with good volume was mid march, and we climbed from that fairly well.

Important few days ahead. If we break up we keep going, if we break down we keep going.


----------



## ShareIt (24 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Whoops!!
> 
> OK lets see if I can organize the Big Boyz to make a bang tomorrow.




looks like the big boys have stepped in today, collecting for the next move up


----------



## treefrog (24 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> .
> 
> Looking at the 4 Hr chart, it concurs with the 1hr chart, i.e we get a minor pullback and then the market heads north until it reaches the next cyclical  extreme between 5750-5800




hi WP
what indicator are your spagetti lines - something other than EW stuff? curvilinear regression maybe?


----------



## wavepicker (24 April 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> hi WP
> what indicator are your spagetti lines - something other than EW stuff? curvilinear regression maybe?




Hello treefrog, these curvilinear envelopes are something I have been working on for a few years now based on Cyclical Analysis. The blue line is the summation of various cycles established by FFT. The other lines are devations of price about the blue(nominal level) based on historical excursions away form the nominal. When price reaches an extreme, at a minimum it will revert back to the Nominal level(sometimes all the way to the opposite extreme). One can also perform multi timeframe analysis to gauge the significance of the bigger cycles ie look at 4hr chart as well and even daily.

I still am not where I want to be with this tool, it's a long term project and at present just experimenting via trial & error. One thing for sure though, even at this stage in it's development it leave lagging Bollingers for dead!


Last night it was a high probability that we would get a pullback on the 1 hr chart, we got that all the way back to the nominal. The question is though, is the pullback over? Not sure yet it might be,  as it has already satisfied the minimum requirements for the short term correction. Need to study further.

I posted these charts because it showed good short term confluence with the the fixed cycle chart in my last post

Cheers


----------



## Logique (2 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> We see plenty of gloomy posts in here, I thought I'd post up a chart with some indicators might make a few people feel a bit better.
> 
> Who knows, the chart might even play out as bullish divergence. We have seen in recent days plenty of Buy side money out there that can drive markets a long way if the mood changes (21 March 2008).



 Bears, are you feeling nervous?  I don't mind admitting some nervousness about some shorts. From here its all about follow through, and (please) no more announcement shocks. Wouldn't hurt if oil would go down either. On the whole though, the market seems to be rousing itself.


----------



## sassa (8 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Only one post in the last 2 weeks.Do we declare this thread RIP-rest in peace or remove it promptly.


----------



## MRC & Co (8 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Bears, are you feeling nervous?  I don't mind admitting some nervousness about some shorts. From here its all about follow through, and (please) no more announcement shocks. Wouldn't hurt if oil would go down either. On the whole though, the market seems to be rousing itself.




Good post in hindsight.

Oil has gone up and the market still remains robust.  

I heard an analyst in the pits of Wall St say last night he thinks the fact that the markets have moved higher despite record oil prices, leads to the assumption that the oil price is in a bubble and the markets will continue to trend higher.  Not sure how he came to that conclusion..........


----------



## Awesomandy (8 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Good post in hindsight.
> 
> Oil has gone up and the market still remains robust.
> 
> I heard an analyst in the pits of Wall St say last night he thinks the fact that the markets have moved higher despite record oil prices, leads to the assumption that the oil price is in a bubble and the markets will continue to trend higher.  Not sure how he came to that conclusion..........




I think it's now just a given fact that oil will just keep going up no matter what. It also depends on who you listen to as well. GS estimates that oil will reach $200, while Citigroup estimates that oil will retreat back down to $40. Might as well just put the "ignore" sign up for the time being.


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Despite all the noise from the Muppet's there continues to be no evidence that high oil is bad for the stock market


----------



## vciscato (11 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Despite all the noise from the Muppet's there continues to be no evidence that high oil is bad for the stock market




Hi,
I can't agree with your quote about oil price is not bad for stocks.
The recent falls on the DOW was related mainly from high oil prices. If oil prices remain even at current levels for a sustained amount of time will cause severe inflation and high interest rates. This will no doubt cause stock prices to fall further.

Cgheers,
vic


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vciscato said:


> I can't agree with your quote about oil price is not bad for stocks.
> The recent falls on the DOW was related mainly from high oil prices.




Really? I'm must of been wrong I was sure I was trading a credit crunch. I thought that was pretty clear. Cannot remember even the Muppet's blaming that one on Oil



vciscato said:


> If oil prices remain even at current levels for a sustained amount of time will cause severe inflation and high interest rates. This will no doubt cause stock prices to fall further.




Sure high interest rates are bad for stocks BUT if you had that as a starting point for investing (high oil is bad) you wouldn't of been in stocks since 2004 when oil started to break out. You would of missed the best bull market Oz has seen in decades.

In the two charts below of oil going to the moon and the XAO can you tel me which period that oil has been bad for stocks?


----------



## SGB (13 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Food 4 thought!!


----------



## nizar (13 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



SGB said:


> Food 4 thought!!




Interesting how far we've falled in only 5-6 months compared to the previous bearmarket.

We have already beat it in percentage terms I believe.


----------



## Whiskers (14 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just looking at the charts... the XMJ and XMM up over 3% helping push the XAO up to within 50 odd points, an easy days trade of 6,000. 

Although it's been hugging the upper bollinger band, I'm not seeing any FA or TA to stop it going on a little bit further yet in this up leg.

From memory the EW's probably should be starting to swing less bearish re any final down leg... maybe zig zag sideways now eh?


----------



## Nyden (14 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Strange that there isn't more discussion here ...
We're nearly back at 6000! Why are we rallying so hard over these last couple of weeks? What's changed? Is the risk of a global downturn no longer there, or has the perception really just changed that much that everything is now OK? 

Surely a lot of TA projecting 4800 is now out the window? I'm just really surprised as to not see any new analysis happening here. I really didn't expect it to hit near on 6000 so soon! End of the year ... maybe, but not in a matter of weeks, or even months - I guess I honestly expected it to bob' around the 5500 range for quite some time


----------



## nizar (14 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Strange that there isn't more discussion here ...




Not really, this thread has always been full of bears.
Oh dont worry they'll be back on here once we have our next 100pt down day, saying the world is going to collapse


----------



## wayneL (14 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Not really, this thread has always been full of bears.
> Oh dont worry they'll be back on here once we have our next 100pt down day, saying the world is going to collapse



Niz,

I've reviewed the last 80 posts on this thread and there is scarcely a bearish post at all. The vast majority are neutral - i.e. looking to trade whichever direction it's heading.

I think your above post is unnecessarily antagonistic, not to mention inaccurate.


----------



## professor_frink (14 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Strange that there isn't more discussion here ...
> We're nearly back at 6000! Why are we rallying so hard over these last couple of weeks? What's changed? Is the risk of a global downturn no longer there, or has the perception really just changed that much that everything is now OK?
> 
> Surely a lot of TA projecting 4800 is now out the window? I'm just really surprised as to not see any new analysis happening here. I really didn't expect it to hit near on 6000 so soon! End of the year ... maybe, but not in a matter of weeks, or even months - I guess I honestly expected it to bob' around the 5500 range for quite some time




You should have picked up on how things work around here by now Nyden! When the market goes up, people post in the small cap threads. When the market goes down, they come into the index/general market discussion threads

I'm with you expecting it to be range bound for quite awhile. Whilst it has run up pretty well recently, don't know that it is any sign that the good times are on their way back**


** get long folks, I'm a great fade!


----------



## Trembling Hand (14 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> I'm with you expecting it to be range bound for quite awhile. Whilst it has run up pretty well recently, don't know that it is any sign that the good times are on their way back**




We are still in a range, its just that the range is about 2000 points. 



professor_frink said:


> ** get long folks, I'm a great fade!




Boy! your gone negative on yourself recently Professor??


----------



## professor_frink (14 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> We are still in a range, its just that the range is about 2000 points.



As long as the intraday volatility stays as is, I'll be happy!



Trembling Hand said:


> Boy! your gone negative on yourself recently Professor??




Na, no more than usual!

Prolly spending too much time in front of the screen at the moment!


----------



## Uncle Festivus (14 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Not really, this thread has always been full of bears.
> Oh dont worry they'll be back on here once we have our next 100pt down day, saying the world is going to collapse



I'll bite .

Well we are certainly seeing some resistance here on the DOW & FTSE, so unless we get another dose of positive pontification from the bobble heads at the central banks and they start distributing exuberance pills en masse, we may get a pullback going into the weekend? The ascending wedges have been broken to the downside; end of reporting season; rating - on credit watch negative


----------



## nizar (14 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Niz,
> 
> I've reviewed the last 80 posts on this thread and there is scarcely a bearish post at all. The vast majority are neutral - i.e. looking to trade whichever direction it's heading.
> 
> I think your above post is unnecessarily antagonistic, not to mention inaccurate.




LOL the comment was nothing more than tongue-in-cheek.
No need for a full blown investigation Mr. Moderator


----------



## wayneL (14 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> LOL the comment was nothing more than tongue-in-cheek.
> No need for a full blown investigation Mr. Moderator



I'll take that as a face-saving climb down then. 

Keep up the tongue in cheek stuff though, with some practice, you might become good at it one day.


----------



## MRC & Co (14 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> When the market goes up, people post in the small cap threads. When the market goes down, they come into the index/general market discussion threads




I have actually found it's pretty much a wash between the XFJ and the XMJ at the moment.

XSO has been going absolutely nowhere fast in this recent little run, with little volatility.


----------



## MRC & Co (15 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On another note, has anybody seen any sentiment polls lately?  

The one I find most useful and comes out each Monday, to my surprise after this recent run lately, has the bears out in force still, at over 45%!


----------



## MichaelD (15 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> On another note, has anybody seen any sentiment polls lately?
> 
> The one I find most useful and comes out each Monday, to my surprise after this recent run lately, has the bears out in force still, at over 45%!



All I read about is how terrible things are. Mark Hulbert in the US is fond of writing about the contrarian viewpoint and how the bears are firmly in control of the sentiment - and how this is in fact compellingly bullish. It interests me that whenever he writes along these lines that he gets howls of discontent from his readers...and yet all I can see is a series of higher highs and higher lows over here.

Resistance Mr. Market? Bah! Never heard of it.

The bears might be screaming but the market over here sure isn't listening and my system is giving pyramid signal after pyramid signal.


ps no doubt this post will trigger a major downwards movement in the market.


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MichaelD said:


> ps no doubt this post will trigger a major downwards movement in the market.





That's alright you have till tomorrow arvo, about 2 O'clock i reckon.


----------



## wayneL (15 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MichaelD said:


> All I read about is how terrible things are. Mark Hulbert in the US is fond of writing about the contrarian viewpoint and how the bears are firmly in control of the sentiment - and how this is in fact compellingly bullish. It interests me that whenever he writes along these lines that he gets howls of discontent from his readers...and yet all I can see is a series of higher highs and higher lows over here.
> 
> Resistance Mr. Market? Bah! Never heard of it.
> 
> ...



Yep, there is simply a dearth of sellers. Anyone who is going to sell based on the current fundamentals, already has done; hence the market trickles upwards. 

Chuck in the weak (bear) hands that don't want to miss a rally and it's all up until new info comes to hand.


----------



## MRC & Co (15 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes, that is my point.

At these levels, I thought the poll may turn more bullish this week (signalling it's time for a fall), but to my surprise  the bears are still kicking!  May be some room to run yet..........though I would imagine 6000 a huge milestone to break and hold for a while!


----------



## MRC & Co (15 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey, enough of the teasing , I'm waiting for some funding to go through to my IB account so I can take advantage of some of these US power set-ups!

Good analysis, only one I'm not so sure on is the oil, I am looking for some kind of a retracement from these levels.  On that note, a friend came to me today and asked how he could invest in oil and whether he should open a futures account to do so.........oh no!


----------



## kash (16 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How will the end of tax year effect the xao. Will there be upward movement until mid june then people selling off for capital losses? Some speccies that have fallen would have to be hit?


----------



## nizar (16 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO just about to meet the 200dma, which is sitting a touch below 6100.
Should be interesting to see what happens next week.


----------



## ShareIt (16 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> XAO just about to meet the 200dma, which is sitting a touch below 6100.
> Should be interesting to see what happens next week.




are you sure about 6100? Commsec S**** software is showing a touch below 6200.... could you please confirm?


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ShareIt said:


> are you sure about 6100? Commsec S**** software is showing a touch below 6200.... could you please confirm?




Depends on what you use. I have the Simple 200 MA is at 6080ish and Its already over with ease the Exponential 200 MA @ 5910ish.


----------



## ShareIt (16 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Depends on what you use. I have the Simple 200 MA is at 6080ish and Its already over with ease the Exponential 200 MA @ 5910ish.




thank you so much... i use the simple as well and Comsec software is showing around the 6200 area.... first touch of the 200ma mmm... usually a pullback


----------



## Uncle Festivus (16 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> That's alright you have till tomorrow arvo, about 2 O'clock i reckon.



Missed it by 45 min there TH, not too shabby though .


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> That's alright you have till tomorrow arvo, about 2 O'clock i reckon.






Uncle Festivus said:


> Missed it by 45 min there TH, not too shabby though .




Yes sorry Uncle. My crystal ball indicator was slightly out yesterday. After I gave it a good polish it told me that the entry was @ 2:00 on the first lower high. 

When your manipulating the market you gotta take your opportunities hey!


----------



## Uncle Festivus (16 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yes sorry Uncle. My crystal ball indicator was slightly out yesterday. After I gave it a good polish it told me that the entry was @ 2:00 on the first lower high.
> 
> When your manipulating the market you gotta take your opportunities hey!




The big boys don't seem to want to hold on over the week end though. Wonder if the Yanks will do the same tonight, or if they get some really bad news it might go up again . My winter shorts look mighty fancy .


----------



## sassa (16 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Opinions on the market?Some will be correct for part of the time while the rest will be wrong.So what about this opinion-
"But some fund managers are wary about the market's heady gains.

"From here on, I find it hard to expect much more out of the market," said Robert Hook, portfolio manager at SG Hiscock & Co. "One risk is a reality check in terms of profit announcements when we get into the reporting season."
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/080516/19/1qtu3.html


----------



## wayneL (16 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> Opinions on the market?Some will be correct for part of the time while the rest will be wrong.So what about this opinion-
> "But some fund managers are wary about the market's heady gains.
> 
> "From here on, I find it hard to expect much more out of the market," said Robert Hook, portfolio manager at SG Hiscock & Co. *"One risk is a reality check in terms of profit announcements when we get into the reporting season."*
> http://au.biz.yahoo.com/080516/19/1qtu3.html




Dunno about that. US investors have largely ignored the diabolical trend in earnings. Looking deeper into the psychology of the market, folks seem to think - yes, earning are crap, but this is the bottom (in earnings) and we will buy now, ready for the next great earnings season.

Investors can collectively delude themselves for a long time, particularly with Bubblevision doing a number on them.

My personal opinion is that earnings reality will bite... but not yet.

Other lagging factors will have to come into play first.


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> Opinions on the market?Some will be correct for part of the time while the rest will be wrong.So what about this opinion-
> "But some fund managers are wary about the market's heady gains.




And some will believe a throw away line from some fundie that may or may not be quoted in context.


----------



## MRC & Co (16 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Have to say I agree with Wayne, delusional is the word for the times!

Good for some swing traders, but there is sure to be some falling knives in the future, just waiting for a few more bulls to come out of the woodwork!  They are slowly building up momentum!


----------



## davo8 (18 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> US investors have largely ignored the diabolical trend in earnings. Looking deeper into the psychology of the market, folks seem to think - yes, earning are crap, but this is the bottom (in earnings) and we will buy now, ready for the next great earnings season.




No, they know there is no great earnings season coming soon. They know the analysts' forecasts are impossibly optimistic, that the lay-offs and bankruptcies and the real bite in the recession are still ahead.

But they really have no choice. Cash and treasuries are negative real, inflation is 8% or more, so if you have to keep your funds in USD then equities may at least give some protection against inflation. You can be sure anyone big who is buying is backed up by hair-trigger program selling, or big option plays.


----------



## CamKawa (19 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just had a quick look at XAO. Its RSI is sitting at 71.84, anything over 70 is considered overbought and it's at the top of the Bollinger Band. A sell off might be in the wings here. Will commodities lead the charge down?


----------



## Uncle Festivus (19 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is anyone able to post a chart of the XAO or XJO without BHP, RIO, SGB or WPL included ie 'situation' stocks? Interesting to see what the rest of the market is doing?


----------



## nizar (19 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Is anyone able to post a chart of the XAO or XJO without BHP, RIO, SGB or WPL included ie 'situation' stocks? Interesting to see what the rest of the market is doing?




Bear for life ey, Uncle?
Keep up the good work 

I dont know the answer to your question but I do recall I think 2006 when the XAO rose ~20% and the return without resources was about 3-4%.
So its definately not a new phenomenon.

Just imagine where we would be now if the banks were running!


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Actually despite the common belief the bull market in the XJO/XAO has been a Banks/XFJ lead bull not a Materials/Commodity producer/Miners rally.

The fins have tracked with or slightly above the XAO in % terms while the XMJ has LAGGED up until late last year. As a sector it has only just taken over the bull in relation to the XAO.

Who would a thought we haven't even had a materials lead bull. Yet


----------



## davo8 (20 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> Just had a quick look at XAO. Its RSI is sitting at 71.84, anything over 70 is considered overbought and it's at the top of the Bollinger Band. A sell off might be in the wings here. Will commodities lead the charge down?




How can you seriously analyse the XAO as a whole? It's kind of like analysing India and Brazil as if they were one market. You've got energy and materials going gangbusters, financials way down and utilities and consumer sectors wobbling. It's kind of like herding cats!


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> How can you seriously analyse the XAO as a whole?




Of Course you can. And you can trade it as well. Just like a diversified company.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (20 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Bear for life ey, Uncle?
> Keep up the good work
> 
> I dont know the answer to your question but I do recall I think 2006 when the XAO rose ~20% and the return without resources was about 3-4%.
> ...




Huh, how's that bearish, just a simple question, just like davo8 ie are the big constituent indexes relevant for detailed analysis anymore, or should we just look at the sub indices for a clearer big picture? 

Even the XJO is mostly influenced by the XTL components ie a handfull of 'situation' stocks and so doesn't give an accurate picture of the whole market or sentiment?

It's good for market commentators to sprout the XAO charging ahead, but what is the market _really_ doing if you take out the mover stocks?


----------



## CamKawa (20 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Of Course you can. And you can trade it as well. Just like a diversified company.



You can trade the indexed funds like SFY and STW which closely follow XAO.


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> You can trade the indexed funds like SFY and STW which closely follow XAO.




Or you could trade what actual moves the whole market. SPI


----------



## dodgers (20 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The market seems to be unsure where to go from here, it seems we may have turned a corner - anyone thinking of putting their SHORTS on?


----------



## korrupt_1 (20 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dodgers said:


> The market seems to be unsure where to go from here, it seems we may have turned a corner - anyone thinking of putting their SHORTS on?




On my 1hr charts (XJO), the MA are starting to cross lower indicating shorts are on the table. Maybe a pullback to sligthly higher levels before executing a speculative short with targets back to the supports levels made on the 12th and 13th.

Personally, I'm waiting for support about 50 points lower to get long.

.


----------



## Whiskers (20 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm looking at the weekly chart and I reckon, looking at the standard deviatian channel, we could have a minor correction back to 5,800'ish also, and still be in uptrend, then push on for one more leg up well into the 6,000's in this move.

From my untrained EW eye, that would then look like the completion of 5 waves up... and pretty much set us up for a sideways/up trend to continue.


----------



## Aussiejeff (21 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

After last night's mini-rout on Wall St, I can put on my Expurt Hat and confidently predict - _"Here cometh the next down leg...."_

AJ


----------



## explod (21 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> After last night's mini-rout on Wall St, I can put on my Expurt Hat and confidently predict - _"Here cometh the next down leg...."_
> 
> AJ




And if you can take any notice of an ol Ex who has lost his spurt it may well Explode down.  On Bloomberg "Hedge Funds Facing Peril..."  worth a look, too big to post here.  80 Trillion could just implode, the Fed Reserve will be scratching over that.

Anyway, yep we will be down today.


----------



## james99 (21 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Save that, unsurprisingly, several in the oil and gas sector continued to advance overnight on oil and gas prices spikes and presumably we can expect that to be reflected in corresponding increases in that sector today.


----------



## Boggo (21 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking at around 5800 for the XAO and if wave 5 plays out on the XFJ we could have 4000 on that.

My


----------



## MRC & Co (21 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Have to say, for the first time since I stated I thought we had turned the corner in March and went long (which we did), I am now strongly bearish.

This corresponds with bullishness back into gold.  

I think we are seeing a momentum shift in both.  



Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Boy lets face it we are all Bears now. the Bull market is dead. 1 drop and its the end of the dead cat run. :

I've been playing short since Friday arvo but thats it. I have flipped and now playing long (mostly ) since this morning.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (21 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Judging by what I'm seeing right now, it's not going to take much to spook this market - some 'get me outa here' selling going on?


----------



## Whiskers (21 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Boy lets face it we are all Bears now. the Bull market is dead. 1 drop and its the end of the dead cat run. :




He he, yeah here we go again. 

Hold onto your shirts people... it's a bear trap looming!!! 

It's just that the cycle of all the 'stars'... oil, the USD, a hint of higher inflation and the POG have all aligned against the stockmarket together again. 

What if oil demand destruction is coming (which I think is) and the POG mini breakout is an over-reaction? 

Where's an EW'er when we need one! This is only a wave four retrace... isn't it? 


PS: Yeah uncle... that's all it is. Some easily spooked people are spooked!!!


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> - some 'get me outa here' selling going on?




I reckon this is just a mid week spiral down to let the 'players' get some volume.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (21 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> PS: Yeah uncle... that's all it is. Some easily spooked people are spooked!!!




Is the herd spooked yet?? Too early to say? Lot's of trigger fingers though who don't want to get caught out _again_. It will be an interesting auction this arvo.


----------



## MRC & Co (21 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Lot's of trigger fingers though who don't want to get caught out _again_.




Absolutely, my itchy trigger finger is well away from the gun, but that being said, I had a pre-determined stop on SEK hit today.  

Only 3 positions left open, bought some GOLD and some SBM (a breakout today, at least a lot of interest, see how it closes).  Small parcels and the sidelines look a good place for me at the moment.........

Not many set-ups presenting themselves over the last few days!

On another note, neither the XMJ or the XFJ look strong to me at the moment.....is one ready to carry the load?  These two indices have been carrying the XJO lately IMO, with funds sloshing between them, but one remaining robust at any given time.

Sentiment poll released Monday, while still seeing quiet a few bears, had less than previous weeks and on top of that, far more neutrals........

Maybe a consolidation at the 5600 level rather than the 5800 level to be seen......


----------



## nizar (21 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> On another note, neither the XMJ or the XFJ look strong to me at the moment.....




On the contrary, it looks to me that the XFJ is just about to break out of an ascending triangle on the daily


----------



## MRC & Co (21 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> On the contrary, it looks to me that the XFJ is just about to break out of an ascending triangle on the daily




Yes, a downward breakout looks much more likely.

Though, a pretty loose ascending triangle, not much even resistance at the top of the triangle.


----------



## sassa (22 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Any particular reason/s for turnaround today.


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I reckon this is just a mid week spiral down to let the 'players' get some volume.






sassa said:


> Any particular reason/s for turnaround today.




Don't fight the guns. You will have you head handed to you on a stick.


----------



## CamKawa (22 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> Any particular reason/s for turnaround today.



The Australian share market bounced back this afternoon, after falling more than 1% earlier in the day. The early falls came after  heavy losses on Wall Street overnight and weaker base metals prices, although record crude oil prices buoyed energy stocks.

At 3.01pm, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was up 0.5%, or 29.4 points, to 5852.8.

After posting earlier losses, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto helped lead the market up. BHP was recently trading at $48.20, a rise of 2.84%, or $1.33, while Rio was up 1.55%, or $2.32, to $152.37.

http://www.businessday.com.au/shares-bounce-back-20080522-2h0e.html

If BHP and Rio rally then XAO will such is their weighting.


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Business day!! what a load of Rubbish. Why do you guys read that crap. 

Its just jurno's trying to put an explanation to something they don't understand after it has happened.


----------



## skuld (22 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Umm, so what happened today? Anyone care to explain and provide charts?


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skuld said:


> Umm, so what happened today? Anyone care to explain and provide charts?





What always happens. SPI traders pushing and pulling, today right on schedule they PUSHED.


----------



## skuld (22 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> What always happens. SPI traders pushing and pulling, today right on schedule they PUSHED.




So a push after hitting 5800 as support? Can we expect a move up to 6000 now (as I noticed in the charts from the previous page)?


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My Crystal ball only sees a couple of sessions ahead. BUT I'm guessing a rise for tomorrow morning session then a roll over in the arvo. Deja' vu like.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (22 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> My Crystal ball only sees a couple of sessions ahead. BUT I'm guessing a rise for tomorrow morning session then a roll over in the arvo. Deja' vu like.




Hey, what time will the dog roll over? Within 1/2 an hr now  14:20 was the spot today?


----------



## skuld (22 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> My Crystal ball only sees a couple of sessions ahead. BUT I'm guessing a rise for tomorrow morning session then a roll over in the arvo. Deja' vu like.




Heh3x ... hope the big players use the same crystal ball as yours, TH. And thanks for the chart.


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Hey, what time will the dog roll over? Within 1/2 an hr now  14:20 was the spot today?




Hard to tell Uncle. Been flogging the crystal ball pretty hard lately. Its getting all grumpy. But if I threaten to use the cheap windex on it its saying either 12:13 or 3:12 or is that 12 to 3. :freak3::dunno:


----------



## nizar (22 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skuld said:


> Umm, so what happened today?




TH started accumulating, thats what happened


----------



## Uncle Festivus (22 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> TH started accumulating, thats what happened



Well he's an apprentice * Big Gun Million dollar daytrader now *.

Nizar, how's your prime beef going, hit some more bear fat recently?


----------



## Broadway (25 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So, where's it going next week?

Obvious answer is further down, but im seeing some volume on ym, er2 and dax that makes me a bit unsure. Dx, gold and oil have paused.

Anyone want to say 'up' by next weekend?


----------



## wildkactus (25 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Broadway,
I'll go with up, think it has retraced to a little patch of short term support. maybe down on monday then up for the rest of the week.

But my star guide could well be upside down.


----------



## MRC & Co (25 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Anyone want to say 'up' by next weekend?




I don't.


----------



## Sean K (25 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOVE to see an EW perspective of what HAS been....

LOL


----------



## Whiskers (25 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> LOVE to see an EW perspective of what HAS been....
> 
> LOL




I second that kennas.

I tried to pry out a commentry from one on the 20th, but no luck so far.

I suspect it's anxious times insofar as if the market turns up for another leg this week, as I expect, the worst case scenerio's will have to be revised and turn all eyes to the up side. 

From 20th May:



Whiskers said:


> I'm looking at the weekly chart and I reckon, looking at the standard deviatian channel, we could have a minor correction back to 5,800'ish also, and still be in uptrend, then push on for one more leg up well into the 6,000's in this move.
> 
> From my untrained EW eye, that would then look like the completion of 5 waves up... and pretty much set us up for a sideways/up trend to continue.


----------



## davo8 (27 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I suspect it's anxious times insofar as if the market turns up for another leg this week, as I expect, the worst case scenerio's will have to be revised and turn all eyes to the up side.




Well I don't do waves so I can't help you. But my crystal ball tells me the index is going sideways for a while: miners up, banks down and everyone else in between. Anything with financial or US exposure is highly sus, but if the supercycle is true those miners are never going to get any cheaper.


----------



## Broadway (28 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wildkactus said:


> Broadway,
> I'll go with up, think it has retraced to a little patch of short term support. maybe down on monday then up for the rest of the week.
> 
> But my star guide could well be upside down.




Nope, your star guide is spot on.
Dx just made a bottom, gold has collapsed and all the indexes are behaving like we won't be down here again for a long time.

Nice call, do come back and let us know when we hit top - cheers.


----------



## juw177 (28 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Nope, your star guide is spot on.
> Dx just made a bottom, gold has collapsed and all the indexes are behaving like we won't be down here again for a long time.




Maybe I am watching some different charts to you? I mean sure the DJ is up a little, USD is up, gold is down, oil is down. I just don't see any reason to call a bottom at this stage.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (28 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Nope, your star guide is spot on.
> Dx just made a bottom, gold has collapsed and all the indexes are behaving like we won't be down here again for a long time.




A long time?

Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip sliding away


----------



## CamKawa (28 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A historical look at bear market rallys.
http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588...html?_i_referralObject=753536046&fromSearch=n


----------



## Kelpie (28 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> A historical look at bear market rallys.
> http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588...html?_i_referralObject=753536046&fromSearch=n





Thanks CamKawa for that interesting link.......sobering to say the least.


----------



## CamKawa (28 May 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Great contribution, thanks Nick.


----------



## Broadway (1 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I thought last week was fairly interesting.

At the start of the week the USD made a bottom, which in the past few months has meant a rally in equity markets in Aus and overseas. (remember mid-march and mid-april?)

Well, the rest of the world kept to this script and climbed most of the week.

But the xao got pressured from falling base metals and oil, ending down.

So the xao seems to have decoupled from the world for a while, and I think this theme will keep going.

So my crystal ball is telling me the XAO will be heading UP for this week coming, especially because copper, bhp and the spi all seem to have increased volume on friday. (and the spi tried to climb friday night as well.)

As for the rest of the world I see them heading down over the next few days, mainly because the usd looks to be turning down, and us bonds looked to have turned up.

Anyone else agree or disagree? Feel free to comment.
I'm only commenting for 1 week ahead. I'm sure there will be another correction in the next 6 months, but what interests me is the next week coming.

Have a good week.


----------



## Euler (2 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Re Index intraday live data  ..... 

can anyone advise if the indices (XAO, XJO, etc) are dynamic live calculation feeds from the ASX or are they snapshots.

I'm looking at a particular live feed and the XJO update is at 30seconds intervals.

Need to work out if the indices calculated at this rate or whether it is determined by your data provider.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Euler said:


> can anyone advise if the indices (XAO, XJO, etc) are dynamic live calculation feeds from the ASX or are they snapshots.




All indices are live snap shot.


----------



## Euler (2 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> All indices are live snap shot.




What time frame?


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Euler said:


> What time frame?




Who cares?? They are not tradable. If you want a leading indicator have a look at futures. Ever Exchange is diff ASX every 30 secs on the min and 1/2 min. US exchanges every 15 sec.


----------



## Euler (2 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Who cares?? ........ ASX every 30 secs on the min and 1/2 min .....




Only interested in ASX, so if it's 30sec it answers my query.
thx


----------



## Whiskers (2 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, just looking at my indicators... I think I can safely call leg 4, iv, d, or whatever, done and the kick on for leg 5, v, e, or whatever, is underway.

PS: Woops, one of them just went away. 

Some nervous traders not wanting to hold overnight.


----------



## Boggo (3 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting chart after today in relation to its retracement zone.

If it holds above approx 5790 then I think my count is valid.

6400 next ?

My 

Mike

.


----------



## Whiskers (3 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> Interesting chart after today in relation to its retracement zone.
> 
> If it holds above approx 5790 then I think my count is valid.
> 
> ...




Sounds about right to me. 

But the brits and yanks aren't doing us any favors yet.

A bit of a slow start. Mondayitis I think. 

After they come back from lunch they should wake up and get going.


----------



## juw177 (3 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> After they come back from lunch they should wake up and get going.




They sure got going. Lunch in the US and DOW went from -150 to -200 within 15min.


----------



## wayneL (3 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It looks as though credit crunch phase II is getting underway; US & UK financials in a spot of bother. This will impact.


----------



## theasxgorilla (3 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> It looks as though credit crunch phase II is getting underway; US & UK financials in a spot of bother. This will impact.




I don't see anything too serious on the equity indices, but treasuries look very soft.


----------



## theasxgorilla (3 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> I don't see anything too serious on the equity indices, *but treasuries look very soft.*




Scratch that comment...data blip.


----------



## wayneL (3 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> I don't see anything too serious on the equity indices,




No, but it's very grim on the High Street. 

ref: Bradford and Bingley are in deep sh!te. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...ectors/banking_and_finance/article4047716.ece


----------



## wayneL (3 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> No, but it's very grim on the High Street.
> 
> ref: Bradford and Bingley are in deep sh!te. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...ectors/banking_and_finance/article4047716.ece




More:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={C36129D1-6EA6-4357-9869-51413980BC53}



> ...Standard & Poor's cut its debt ratings on three large brokerages, adding to earlier losses stemming from upheavals at Wachovia Corp. and Washington Mutual Inc.
> 
> The ratings agency disclosed its downgrades involving Lehman Brothers Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. and Morgan Stanley in a release, citing *"the potential for more write-offs."*
> "Concerns in the financial sector have been in the spotlight, following trouble at the U.K. lender Bradford & Bingley, while management shake-ups at Wachovia and Washington Mutual have unsettled the markets as well," said analysts at Action Economics.


----------



## Boggo (3 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yep, the XFJ (S&P ASX 200 Fin) is going to be the fly in the ointment.

Could the bottom right of this piccy be a possibility ?

Mike
.


----------



## davo8 (3 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> It looks as though credit crunch phase II is getting underway; US & UK financials in a spot of bother. This will impact.




It's a bit early. The curtain goes up on phase II in around July-August. This is just the orchestra tuning up.

We should get a good bit of fall out, but if the housing market turns here like everywhere else, we'll soon find out if they are as good as we've been told they are. Watch the XFJ!


----------



## Whiskers (6 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> LOVE to see an EW perspective of what HAS been....
> 
> LOL






Whiskers said:


> Well, just looking at my indicators... I think I can safely call leg 4, iv, d, or whatever, done and the kick on for leg 5, v, e, or whatever, is underway.
> 
> PS: Woops, one of them just went away.
> 
> Some nervous traders not wanting to hold overnight.




Well, as they say... if you want a job done well ya gotta do it yourself. 




Whiskers said:


> (From post and DJIA chart on Immiment and Severe Market thread.)
> 
> 
> ... and I think I may have worked it out. :bananasmi
> ...




I agree with the more recent part of Boggo's count and his projection. 

It seems to me that the leg 5 *target is 6258 minimum*.

PS: I charted up on my med/long term chart which does not include Fridays action, not the daily/short term one that I got my initial false start signal from.

The yellow line is the long term Standard Deviation Line that I initially figured into my support base.


----------



## theasxgorilla (6 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers...can wave 4 overlap the top of wave 1?


----------



## wayneL (6 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Whiskers...can wave 4 overlap the top of wave 1?



Nope.

Can't call it a diagonal either.

Gotta be corrective.


----------



## Whiskers (6 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Whiskers...can wave 4 overlap the top of wave 1?




I believe there is an exception that applies here, that it can in a highly leveraged market, but only on a daily chart. 

But as I say, I'm new at EW and would be interested to know if anyone can put a good explination as to why this exception shouldn't apply here.


----------



## Whiskers (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Nope.
> 
> Can't call it a diagonal either.
> 
> Gotta be corrective.




What do ya mean by a dioganal?


----------



## wayneL (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> What do ya mean by a dioganal?




A leading diagonal is also a 5 wave pattern (identified by Frost and Prechter) that can form wave one of an impulse of a larger degree. In the leading diagonal, wave 4 CAN overlap wave 1, however, the pattern is a converging one, whereas the current pattern in XAO is diverging.

This destroys its potential as a diagonal.


----------



## wavepicker (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Whiskers...can wave 4 overlap the top of wave 1?




I have been working and trading from this chart. I posted this chart originally in the Elliot Wave Analysis Thread about 2 months back. The arrows I put in back then, and are what I expected the pattern of trend to trace out shown by the arrows and trendlines.

As you can see the market overran the expected timeframe  for the peak by about 2 weeks. But the pattern of trend appears to be correct(so far) and intact. The initial rally off the lows at on the 22/1 was clearly 3 waves. the subsequent move down has been 3 waves, and the last rally has been 3 waves. This is getting easy isn't it fellas? So what is the most probable wave structure to follow? Most likely another 3 wave structure. These past patterns can gives possible(not certain) clues to the future patterns. I should think there is good chance the last low will act as some type of temporary support fo the sideways pattern.
 The projection for sub 5000 I will stick with for now.

Hope this Helps

Cheers


----------



## Whiskers (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> A leading diagonal is also a 5 wave pattern (identified by Frost and Prechter) that can form wave one of an impulse of a larger degree. In the leading diagonal, wave 4 CAN overlap wave 1, however, the pattern is a converging one, whereas the current pattern in XAO is diverging.
> 
> This destroys its potential as a diagonal.




Again, according to my literature a diagonal (triangle) is most often converging, but can be diverging, albeit uncommon.

Also, wave one of an impulse doesn't necessairly have to be a converging diagonal.

But I'll work on it more over the weekend.


----------



## Sean K (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We're probably lucky we have Monday off for the hysteria to dissipate, and then we'll have the chance to take in the likely US recovery on Monday. Although, quite happy gold has had a stiffy.


----------



## nizar (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Wave,

What do you mean by "final target" ?
Then what?


----------



## wavepicker (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Hi Wave,
> 
> What do you mean by "final target" ?
> Then what?




That should be the end major wave A down, probably no later than November. As you can see it will most likely be a 3 wave structure down. After that I am a bull and would expect a good 1 year rally. Will have some good Cycles Analsyis to help us out as to when rally will be building up. I am quite confident we in a fourth wave here relative to crash of 87 wave 2 which was sharp correction. Law of Alternation guides to wave 4 being sideways or rangebound.

refer to charts 1 and 2 of the following post months back:


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258027&postcount=2842


Regarding Ending Diagonals

the following chart is an example of an ending diagonal before the market changes direction abruptly:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=239019&postcount=96


----------



## Lucky_Country (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Doubt we will see the previous lows again.
Does anyone theink they can pick BHP up at $33 again or maybe WPL, STO, RIO back to the levels they were at the last market bottom.
Oil at record highs, massive gas deals being done, Coal price rocketing.
The banks well they have been struggling but the Australian banks have proven to be well placed to handle the sub prime crisis.
Time will tell but our market is prepared to handle the worst.


----------



## wavepicker (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> Doubt we will see the previous lows again.
> Does anyone theink they can pick BHP up at $33 again or maybe WPL, STO, RIO back to the levels they were at the last market bottom.
> Oil at record highs, massive gas deals being done, Coal price rocketing.
> The banks well they have been struggling but the Australian banks have proven to be well placed to handle the sub prime crisis.
> Time will tell but our market is prepared to handle the worst.




Go the Villa!!!!!!


----------



## Sean K (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> Doubt we will see the previous lows again.
> Does anyone theink they can pick BHP up at $33 again or maybe WPL, STO, RIO back to the levels they were at the last market bottom.
> Oil at record highs, massive gas deals being done, Coal price rocketing.
> The banks well they have been struggling but the Australian banks have proven to be well placed to handle the sub prime crisis.
> Time will tell but our market is prepared to handle the worst.



We could see the lows again and a bit further, but it just depends on your investment horizon and how you deal with this. Are you a trader or long term investor? This is the problem with a lot of the discussuion here. The trend since 1900 is up.


----------



## Lucky_Country (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Margin calls were the curse of the previous drop and alot have exited their positions already.
Oil majors will profit bigtime when the market re opens on Tuesday and that includes BHP which as well all know moves the ASX more than any company.


----------



## tech/a (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Longterm or short term its going to hit the pocket.
Either from stops or unrealised loss or a munch out of unrealised profit.
Then ofcourse there is the short side.


----------



## wayneL (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> Margin calls were the curse of the previous drop and alot have exited their positions already.
> Oil majors will profit bigtime when the market re opens on Tuesday and that includes BHP which as well all know moves the ASX more than any company.



But BHP is waaaay off its NYSE highs, barely up much at all. Add in some exchange rate change from Friday and it could even be negative on the ASX.


----------



## mfp (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> We're probably lucky we have Monday off for the hysteria to dissipate, and then we'll have the chance to take in the likely US recovery on Monday. Although, quite happy gold has had a stiffy.




Lucky? I'd say we could be very unlucky because i'm sure many would be wanting to dump holdings first thing Monday morning in case the US follows through with another horror night, which is very likely since several stocks i noticed closed exactly at their day low. Watch the sheer panic Tuesday morning if that does eventuate. As for being happy that gold rose $25 or whatever, i think that at best goldies will only hold steady on Tuesday, but who knows what gold will do Monday anyway.


----------



## Lucky_Country (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lets hope the IO contracts are finalised soon that should give the market a boost especially if they suprise on the upside.


----------



## Sean K (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mfp said:


> Lucky? I'd say we could be very unlucky because i'm sure many would be wanting to dump holdings first thing Monday morning in case the US follows through with another horror night, which is very likely since several stocks i noticed closed exactly at their day low. Watch the sheer panic Tuesday morning if that does eventuate. As for being happy that gold rose $25 or whatever, i think that at best goldies will only hold steady on Tuesday, but who knows what gold will do Monday anyway.



IMO, we are very lucky that we have the day off so that the F&G settles, that's all. If we were open tomorrow morning, then there'd be quite a few taxi drivers wanting to change into the head on lane...


----------



## IFocus (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> Margin calls were the curse of the previous drop and alot have exited their positions already.
> Oil majors will profit bigtime when the market re opens on Tuesday and that includes BHP which as well all know moves the ASX more than any company.




Most of the stocks hit by margin calls on the last trip south were pretty much basket cases any way. Being in down trends for some time as institution's moved to reduce their risk exposure.

Rising oil price is going to feed back into commodities and economy's in general maybe it will take time may be not.

An oil shock will dent the consumer immediately every where.

My SMSF is still waiting since November 07 for 4800 maybe it will come maybe it wont.

S&P chart from last nigh......thats a big candle down

.


----------



## davo8 (7 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Rising oil price is going to feed back into commodities and economy's in general maybe it will take time may be not.
> An oil shock will dent the consumer immediately every where.
> My SMSF is still waiting since November 07 for 4800 maybe it will come maybe it wont..




You better believe it. Looks like the Aussie construction industry just fell off a cliff: http://economics.hia.com.au/publications/PCI.aspx. HIA/AIG PCI index was down for April and nose-dived for May. Also, house prices are down, so we just might be following the rest of the world, if about 12 months late.

A consumer-led recession is still possible even if mining holds up. 4800 here we come.


----------



## AnDy62 (8 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> . 4800 here we come.




If you are so sure, actions speak louder than words. Place a few shorts etc. Good luck with them


----------



## IFocus (8 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



AnDy62 said:


> If you are so sure, actions speak louder than words. Place a few shorts etc. Good luck with them




There is no certainty in markets but plenty of opinions including my own


----------



## MRC & Co (8 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> There is no certainty in markets but plenty of opinions including my own




Very very true.

On that note though, I have 11 positions open, 3 on oil, 1 on gold and 4 shorts.  

Definately looking for lower prices on the back of high oil prices, however, just encase, I have 3 'regular' longs as a bit of a hedge (mainly in the NASDAQ) FWIW.


----------



## nizar (8 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Very very true.
> 
> On that note though, I have 11 positions open, 3 on oil, 1 on gold and 4 shorts.
> 
> Definately looking for lower prices on the back of high oil prices, however, just encase, I have 3 'regular' longs as a bit of a hedge (mainly in the NASDAQ) FWIW.




Amazing how everybody thinks that high oil prices are a disaster for the stockmarket.

Look at DOW and ASX200 against oil for the last 5 years 

I think TH has a chart somewhere which shows this nicely.


----------



## MRC & Co (8 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes, a period of economic growth, leads to higher oil prices.  

However, in a period of economic slowdown or perhaps even recession, and parabolic oil pices, what do you think the result will be?

Any chart is the past, we are now looking at a period of stagflation.  Are IRs going to keep falling to stimulate economic growth, or rise to combat inflation?  Fiscal policy in a floating exchange rate economy is not nearly as sharp instrument, as the crowding out effect applies.  

Amaizing how people think skyrocketing all-time high oil prices will not affect the stockmarket in this kind of economic climate..........


----------



## wayneL (8 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Amazing how everybody thinks that high oil prices are a disaster for the stockmarket.
> 
> Look at DOW and ASX200 against oil for the last 5 years
> 
> I think TH has a chart somewhere which shows this nicely.




Roll on $500 oil then. That'll stimulate the stock market nicely.


----------



## nizar (8 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Roll on $500 oil then. That'll stimulate the stock market nicely.




500 is only the beginning, brother.
I can see $50000000000000 in a few years time


----------



## wayneL (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> 500 is only the beginning, brother.
> I can see $50000000000000 in a few years time




So when that happens XAO 50,000,000,000,000,000,000?


----------



## GreatPig (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeah, but take out the top few oil companies and it will only be 95.

GP


----------



## sassa (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> IMO, we are very lucky that we have the day off so that the F&G settles, that's all. If we were open tomorrow morning, then there'd be quite a few taxi drivers wanting to change into the head on lane...



It seems the luck is in.The SPI futures have moved from -114 to +3 according to Bloombergs this afternoon.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html


----------



## Trembling Hand (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sassa said:


> It seems the luck is in.The SPI futures have moved from -114 to +3 according to Bloombergs this afternoon.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html




Well you are getting what you paid for there. The SPI closed @ 5580 on Friday. Its still 100 odd down.


----------



## davo8 (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



AnDy62 said:


> If you are so sure, actions speak louder than words. Place a few shorts etc. Good luck with them




What I'm sure of is that high returns on property and banks are history. I've sold the lot. What I don't know is the timing on this rippling through the market. Months? A year? So no shorts.

I'm happy to sit on cash, gold and energy stocks until things get a lot cheaper, and the next bubble gets going.

Anyone want to take a punt on how the ASX will do tomorrow?


----------



## nomore4s (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Anyone want to take a punt on how the ASX will do tomorrow?




Surely that will depend to a certain extent on the US tonight?


----------



## Kelpie (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> What I'm sure of is that high returns on property and banks are history. I've sold the lot. What I don't know is the timing on this rippling through the market. Months? A year? So no shorts.
> 
> I'm happy to sit on cash, gold and energy stocks until things get a lot cheaper, and the next bubble gets going.
> 
> Anyone want to take a punt on how the ASX will do tomorrow?




SPI futures up 5 points ATM - I rekon we'll see a fall of less than 1%  in the XAO tomorrow.


----------



## Lucky_Country (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Futures up !
Is this the de coupling we want and need ?


----------



## wayneL (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

SPI futures are not open yet. They cannot be up or down at this point.


----------



## Kelpie (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> SPI futures are not open yet. They cannot be up or down at this point.




I mean the SP500 futures in the US. Take a look at

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html


----------



## M34N (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lucky_Country said:


> Futures up !
> Is this the de coupling we want and need ?




Answered as above!


----------



## wayneL (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kelpie said:


> I mean the SP500 futures in the US. Take a look at
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html



Don't need to, I have live data.

But yse, SP500 up 5 at this point in time; but this point in time (1 hour before cash open) is meaningless. Let's see where it closes.


----------



## roland (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I just use Yahoo Finance for a suggested trend:

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.2.  Stock futures suggest a slightly higher start to the trading day.  In deal news, Honeywell (HON) announced that it signed a definitive agreement to sell its Consumables Solutions business to B/E Aerospace (BEAV) for $1.05 billion.


----------



## MRC & Co (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Don't need to, I have live data.
> 
> But yse, SP500 up 5 at this point in time; but this point in time (1 hour before cash open) is meaningless. Let's see where it closes.




Exactly.  

Not really pointing to anything more than another night of chop to me, but it's impossible to tell at this point.  Only marginally pointing higher.  

Disappointing


----------



## Kelpie (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Don't need to, I have live data.
> 
> But yse, SP500 up 5 at this point in time; but this point in time (1 hour before cash open) is meaningless. Let's see where it closes.




I think that it's not completely meaningless...... I mean +5 or -100 like it was earlier today does give some indication of sentiment...doesn't it?


----------



## wayneL (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kelpie said:


> I think that it's not completely meaningless...... I mean +5 or -100 like it was earlier today does give some indication of sentiment...doesn't it?




At an hour before open, it may give an indication to the open, but where the market goes during the day is an entirely different matter. It will be the close of the SP500 tonight (and of course SYCOM) which will gives a better indication of where the XAO/XJO open on Tuesday.

Until then, all is speculation.


----------



## MRC & Co (9 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kelpie said:


> I think that it's not completely meaningless...... I mean +5 or -100 like it was earlier today does give some indication of sentiment...doesn't it?




I never saw the S&P500 futures down 100 

Up just over 6 (live) as I type.

The pattern on the hourly is looking ominous IMO, anyone predicting a collapse at some point today?


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Guys PLEASE when quoting futures *PLEASE PLEASE* check where they closed on the ASX the day before. All the website your are using are rubbish.

They never give the close from the ASX close. And if there is a holiday they are giving the close from the overnight session. So what is happening is you are all quoting 5 points up from a 110 point drop on Friday night.

You cannot rely on these website for quotes. If you have to use them then check where the actual Cash market closed and work out the change from there. It gets tiresome to be always pointing this out. God help you if you trade off this sh*t


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You will not see this on the XAO/XJO because of the staggered open BUT there is a potential for an Island reversal (Exhaustion Gap of some sort) today on the SPI. Will of course need a big night OS and then a bit of spine from the Big Boyz but just a thought with fin year end coming up.


----------



## Whiskers (11 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's my big picture of the XAO. 

I've taken on board a number of comments, but in the final analysis and prioritisation of what I think is the intent of EW, I used that as the criteria to establish my change points. 

What was getting difficult for me was the range of different publications/authors not always agreeing on some of the fine detail, hence my quest to try to understand the philosophy behind EW so as I could prioritise my criteria rather than relying on the 'letter' of some publications/authors.

I had to strip all my indicators off the chart so it could be legible.

If I'm right the XAO will be moving on and up at a bit better rate than the US market. By me I think it looks like we are about the bottom of wave 4 of leg 1 of the next impulse wave, while the US looks to have completed wave 2 and jells with my FA belief that we will out perform them as they now go in to bat to save the USD.  

One issue I pondered for awhile is whether there necessairly has to be minor waves in every wave and I couldn't find anything to clarify the subject.

Case in point. The big down thrust c-iii by my criteria was a significant move in itself with no descernable minor waves (minute maybe, but I don't do minute) , but many have minor waves along it. For me it looks bigger on candle and OHLC charts than the volume, price action and time shows.

Another cross check for me was the *P&F chart *showing that this little correction is still a long way of coming back to the down trend line. *Motorway, your the expert there. What say you?*

I see many different systems. Is there a universaly accepted coding system for EW?

Comments welcome.


----------



## Whiskers (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It looks like this wave can go down to abt 5,300 and still be valid.

That's based on an exemption to the 'normal' wave count rules in a market driven by leverage. I think it's probably fair to say the market is being affected pretty badly by futures atm.

Having said that it seems that it would be getting a bit extreme if it went past the the bottom of wave 2, 5,380.


----------



## Nick Radge (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Your wave-iv's keep overlapping the highs of wave-i which is not allowed. As such these moves are corrective, not impulsive.


----------



## Whiskers (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Your wave-iv's keep overlapping the highs of wave-i which is not allowed. As such these moves are corrective, not impulsive.




Is it really that black and white, Nick?

As mentioned earlier, I notice exemptions to rules like that one and it seems to me the current circumstances qualify.

Also, it seems to me that just looking at candles or OHLC charts can be misleading, ie they just shows time and price levels. Isn't EW a function of volume as well as price and time? Isn't it the interpretation of all three in context and proportion that makes EW unique?


----------



## wayneL (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I notice exemptions to rules like that one...



Where?



Whiskers said:


> ...and it seems to me the current circumstances qualify.



Why?


----------



## Nick Radge (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There are 3 core rules in EW and yes, they are black and white. You have broken one.

You are exhibiting a classic example of forcing your own opinion and bias into the analysis. The market is clearly saying one thing yet you're unwilling to see it. Do so at your own peril.


----------



## Whiskers (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Where?
> 
> 
> Why?




This is one web site that leaves the door open to exceptions... and isn't the nature of all the trouble in the world economy today, especially the stock markets, the 'exceptional' level of leverage in the markets. 




> MOTIVE WAVES
> Motive waves subdivide into five waves with certain characteristics and always move in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree. They are straightforward and relatively easy to recognize and interpret.
> 
> Within motive waves, wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1, and wave 4 never retraces more than 100% of wave 3. Wave 3, moreover, always travels beyond the end of wave 1. The goal of an impulse is to make progress, and these rules of formation assure that it will.
> ...


----------



## dhukka (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Jaysus Whiskers.

You keep posting your amateur antics and asking for advice. However, when that advice is contrary to your own analysis you reject it even though you admit your just an EW beginner. You called a bottom at 5800, now the bottom is 5300, eventually you'll be right but your analysis doesn't hold any water. How about listening to someone who knows what they're on about?


----------



## wayneL (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> This is one web site that leaves the door open to exceptions... and isn't the nature of all the trouble in the world economy today, especially the stock markets, the 'exceptional' level of leverage in the markets.




This text that you quoted, specifically excludes the current XAO action as an impulse on at least two points.

It ain't an impulse.


----------



## Whiskers (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> This text that you quoted, specifically excludes the current XAO action as an impulse on at least two points.
> 
> It ain't an impulse.




Which two... that ain't affected by exceptions?


----------



## wayneL (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Which two... that ain't affected by exceptions?




1/ XAO is a cash market, not a futures market. Therefore the exception is not considered.

2/ The overlapping exception mentioned for futures markets is very brief, viz, intraday or a single close. This wave has settled into the overlap.

Sorry mate, there is just nobody in your corner on this one. No impulses here.


----------



## Boggo (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We are drifting off the thread subject slightly but I just thought I would post one of Robert Miner's commit to memory rules re W4.

"Wave-4 should not make a daily close into the closing range
of the Wave-1"

(my underline)

Mike


----------



## Porper (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> We are drifting off the thread subject slightly but I just thought I would post one of Robert Miner's commit to memory rules re W4.
> 
> "Wave-4 should not make a daily close into the closing range
> of the Wave-1"
> ...




Boggo, he also states that this is ok for futures etc.If wave 4 penetrates wave 1 it is not seen as a impulse.

At work so no chart but the recent price action has closed into wave 1, therefore it is an A,B,C correction, we are in wave 1 of an impulse down.No question at the moment, it would take a large move up to invalidate this count.


----------



## Boggo (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Boggo, he also states that this is ok for futures etc.If wave 4 penetrates wave 1 it is not seen as a impulse.
> 
> At work so no chart but the recent price action has closed into wave 1, therefore it is an A,B,C correction, we are in wave 1 of an impulse down.No question at the moment, it would take a large move up to invalidate this count.




Agreed. In whisker's post there was reference to "territory" of wave 1, I was quoting Miner as being more specific.

Mike


----------



## MRC & Co (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> As mentioned earlier, I notice exemptions to rules like that one and it seems to me the current circumstances qualify.




Oh god, this is one reason I have never gravitated towards EW.  So many guidelines and everybody appears to have their own slightly different, interpretation.

This is one reason I like the way Nick implements EW analysis, basic rules and only a few guidelines, keeps it simple, yet logical.  That being said, I still don't take much notice of any EW analysis.  A quick look at the chart in a couple different timeframes can tell me which way it is trending, and whether highs or lows are overlapping is what I use to determine strength of the trend.  I'm a simple man  

Back to XAO, getting flogged!    Currently have 9 shorts (as of a day or two ago, can't remember, too much beer), and 2 longs.


----------



## Whiskers (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I understand what you guys are saying, but can I draw your attention to the exceptions.

_This rule holds for all *non-leveraged *cash basis markets._

Are you telling me the share market is non-leveraged these days?


----------



## Porper (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> This is one reason I like the way Nick implements EW analysis, basic rules and only a few guidelines, keeps it simple, yet logical.




Miner uses E.Wave in a much more basic fashion than Nick Radge.Very simple is his motto.He doesn't label complex corrective moves where as Nick does.

Who knows which is better ? I prefer the more complex personally, but either works.


----------



## MRC & Co (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I understand what you guys are saying, but can I draw your attention to the exceptions.
> 
> _This rule holds for all *non-leveraged *cash basis markets._
> 
> Are you telling me the share market is non-leveraged these days?




Regardless of rules, do you personally understand and agree with the logic that a wave 4 should cross through the top of a wave 1 and still remain bullish?

That is the real question IMO.


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> as of a day or two ago,




Not too late in an accelerating trend?


----------



## MRC & Co (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Not too late in an accelerating trend?




Well I have had quiet a few shorts on for a while now, well before it's large fall a few days back.  

Just had my other few longs stopped out and only seen mainly short set-ups over the last several days...........

Got my eye on quiet a few long set-ups to hedge, but nothing takes my fancy at the moment, bit risky for me, but I can only 'trade what I see'.


----------



## tech/a (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Miner uses E.Wave in a much more basic fashion than Nick Radge.Very simple is his motto.He doesn't label complex corrective moves where as Nick does.
> 
> Who knows which is better ? I prefer the more complex personally, but either works.




Ill bet he still holds to the 3 foundation rules of Elliott.




> This rule holds for all non-leveraged cash basis markets.
> Are you telling me the share market is non-leveraged these days?




This statement makes Radges observation



> You are exhibiting a classic example of forcing your own opinion and bias into the analysis.



even clearer as W is forcing not only his view of EW but also his view of the market to substantiate his response.

Harmless in discussion but damaging if you have a 100k of long trades on based on fallacious analysis.

Porper
Simple or Complex what does your EW tell you?


----------



## wayneL (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Ill bet he still holds to the 3 foundation rules of Elliott.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




The other consideration is the configuration of the component waves.

In an impulse, waves 1 & 3 (and 5) must be 5 wavers, either diagonal triangles or impulsive. Wave 3 *must* be impulsive.

We don't see this in the current pattern, the component waves are all corrective.

Baboom.


----------



## theasxgorilla (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Harmless in discussion but damaging if you have a 100k of long trades on based on fallacious analysis.




I struggle to see how this statement can be true in light of all the discussion recently about analysis.  Remember, IT'S NOT THE ANALYSIS!

What's likely to be more important is how well he manages his bad trades


----------



## tech/a (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Its not about *how* you cross the road either.
But you dont step out in front of a bus---do you?

All part of "managing" wouldnt you say?


----------



## theasxgorilla (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Its not about *how* you cross the road either.
> But you dont step out in front of a bus---do you?
> 
> All part of "managing" wouldnt you say?




Well I have my own opinion, but I'm commenting on the fact that your's appears to be contradictory, depending on what you are trying to prove.

IMO analysis will continue to be all important.


----------



## tech/a (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> IMO analysis will continue to be all important.




I totally agree---but its not what makes you the money!


----------



## theasxgorilla (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I totally agree---but its not what makes you the money!




Still struggling...


----------



## Whiskers (12 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> The other consideration is the configuration of the component waves.
> 
> In an impulse, waves 1 & 3 (and 5) must be 5 wavers, either diagonal triangles or impulsive. Wave 3 *must* be impulsive.
> 
> ...




I have 5 micro waves penciled in.

I agree with theasxgorilla and techa/a, that at the end of the day it's about managing your trades.

All I'm saying is I'm keeping my options open on the grounds of exceptional circumstances before I definitively call it an impulse up or another correction down. 

Yes my FA analysis does suggest my proposition is correctand I have seen other EW'ers use fundamental and other TA in collaberation. 

Since the decline started all the so called experts have been so sure it was going to be the biggest recession, even depression in the US and spread to Aus and world wide. But we haven't had a single quarter of negative growth yet and now some of those experts are starting to say there won't be a recession, the concern is more inflationary.

I find as many different forcasts with EW's. 

I have consistantly maintained that the correction was overdone... in no small part based on the reported amount of leverage in the markets and the effect that leverage, including in the commodity and futures markets were having on the share markets and actual economy.

Just a little foot note about that overlap rules... I often find termonology like minor overlap allowed... internal parts only... up to about 10 or 15%. 

The fundamental premise of EW is that it's supposed to be a tool to reflect the rythmic flow of the market sentiment. To ignore the influence increasing and unprecedented leverage has on the market and people's sentiment and to religiously stick to a rule that has been qualified from the start in terms of leverage seems to me to be a bit foolish. 

Whats important is I agree and foresaw that the current leg/sub leg is corrective and if the price falls below the low I mentioned it probably invalidates my count. Other technical indicators also suggest stronger support around 5,300, that if broken means more correction.

I will see where it turns before I call it definitively and then gauge the next set of possible ranges from there... in conjunction with my FA. :


----------



## davo8 (13 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> The other consideration is the configuration of the component waves.
> In an impulse, waves 1 & 3 (and 5) must be 5 wavers, either diagonal triangles or impulsive. Wave 3 *must* be impulsive.




I guess it's stuff like this that convinces me (again) not to do waves.

A simplistic view of the chart leads me to conclude it will test support again at around 5100, and what happens after that depends on what opens O/S.

Anyone really, really sure I'm wrong?


----------



## theasxgorilla (13 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> *I guess it's stuff like this that convinces me (again) not to do waves.*
> 
> A simplistic view of the chart leads me to conclude it will test support again at around 5100, and what happens after that depends on what opens O/S.
> 
> Anyone really, really sure I'm wrong?




If doing wave counts yourself is a problem you can always do what I do and 'outsource' your counting


----------



## MRC & Co (13 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> If doing wave counts yourself is a problem you can always do what I do and 'outsource' your counting




To ASF?  Plenty of wavers here!  I beleive one even goes by the name......


----------



## lusk (13 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> I guess it's stuff like this that convinces me (again) not to do waves.
> 
> A simplistic view of the chart leads me to conclude it will test support again at around 5100, and what happens after that depends on what opens O/S.
> 
> Anyone really, really sure I'm wrong?




l was exactly the same l never gave EW a chance because it seemed so complicated, l didn't believe that something like that could work.

It won't replace what you've already learnt it will add to it.


----------



## dhukka (13 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Since the decline started all the so called experts have been so sure it was going to be the biggest recession, even depression in the US and spread to Aus and world wide. But we haven't had a single quarter of negative growth yet and now some of those experts are starting to say there won't be a recession, the concern is more inflationary.




More straw man arguments. The overwhelming consensus believed a recession would be avoided except for a brief period where the majority tipped just above 50% on the recession call back in March. Who are these so-called experts that predicted the biggest recession/depression?  Exaggeration doesn't add credence to your arguments, it just detracts from them. 

The US domestic economy contracted in the first quarter of 2008, the only thing that kept GDP positive was the export sector, not to mention a ridiculously low PCE deflator.  The head of the NBER, (the group that ultimately decides on the recession call) said recently;



> "I think we're heading for a recession," said at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York. He stressed that he was speaking from his personal opinion, not that of the NBER, the unofficial arbiter of U.S. recessions."My sense is that the risk to overall GDP growth over the next six months is still very significant," he added.
> 
> The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based NBER has not declared a recession and is unlikely to do so for many months. Feldstein, who is also an economics professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, will step down from his NBER post at the end of the month."




Employment has contracted for five straight months and the unemployment rate has risen more than *1%* from the trough. Both of those metrics have never happened outside of a recession. Yes employment losses are small on a comparative basis, but these numbers will be revised downwards over the next 12 months which is always convenient for the no recession camp because the recession is usually done by that time.


----------



## Porper (13 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Ill bet he still holds to the 3 foundation rules of Elliott.




Absolutely Tech, never wavers, only difference is that if the count isn't simple, Miner will move on, fine for people trading the vast US markets, always more to find, a bit trickier trading the ASX.


Porper


tech/a said:


> Simple or Complex what does your EW tell you?




The count is fairly easy, even for a novice at the moment.

I posted the same expanded flat pattern that Whiskers now has, but it was along time ago and it was quickly invalidated.

Not only has that count invalidated a clearly defined rule, it has also broken important guidelines.

Even if we were to surge to all time highs from here, the Expanded flat correction would not be valid, I haven't even looked at that scenario as to me it just is so unlikely.

We are quickly accelerating to those recent lows, support levels, volume will be very important defining where we go from there.Not my strong point, Tech will be the one to ask then.


----------



## MRC & Co (13 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Employment has contracted for five straight months and the unemployment rate has risen more than *1%* from the trough. Both of those metrics have never happened outside of a recession. Yes employment losses are small on a comparative basis, but these numbers will be revised downwards over the next 12 months which is always convenient for the no recession camp because the recession is usually done by that time.




This is the one that get's me.  

Unemployment is one of the ultimate determinants for recession and it doesn't look to be recovering anytime soon.  As is the nature of the economic loop.  

Add to that the sub-prime debarcle is far from over with long lags involved, high oil causing trouble implementing any further IR cuts, and you have a HUGE mess.

No matter what any other economist tells me, I see the US having an extremelly hard time getting out of an official recession, despite any Bernake propeganda.


----------



## Whiskers (15 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ok,ok, ok... it's an a, b, c... but only a little one (lower case), but I'm penciling in a big 1 and 2 for now also. : 

I'm gonna have another dig about that over-lap rule. 

I've read in a couple of places that in diagonal triangles wave 1 and wave 4 should come within 10%, generally, or nearly always overlap. This extract isn't what I'm relying on atm, but makes my point.



> Leading Diagonal
> 
> When diagonal triangles occur in the fifth or C wave position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described. However, it has recently come to light that a variation on this pattern occasionally appears in the first wave position of impulses and in the A wave position of zigzags. *The characteristic overlapping of waves one and four *and the convergence of boundary lines into a wedge shape remain as in the ending diagonal triangle. However, the subdivisions are different, tracing out a 5-3-5, or 5-3-5-3-5 pattern. The structure of this formation (see Figure 10) does fit the spirit of the Wave Principle in that the five-wave subdivisions in the direction of the larger trend communicate a "continuation" message as opposed to the "termination" implication of the three-wave subdivisions in the ending diagonal. This pattern must be noted because the analyst could mistake it for a far more common development, a series of first and second waves, as illustrated in Figure 5.
> 
> http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics2.htm


----------



## wayneL (15 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Leading Diagonal
> 
> When diagonal triangles occur in the fifth or C wave position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described. However, it has recently come to light that a variation on this pattern occasionally appears in the first wave position of impulses and in the A wave position of zigzags. *The characteristic overlapping of waves one and four **and the convergence of boundary lines into a wedge shape remain as in the ending diagonal triangle*. However, the subdivisions are different, tracing out a 5-3-5, or 5-3-5-3-5 pattern. The structure of this formation (see Figure 10) does fit the spirit of the Wave Principle in that the five-wave subdivisions in the direction of the larger trend communicate a "continuation" message as opposed to the "termination" implication of the three-wave subdivisions in the ending diagonal. This pattern must be noted because the analyst could mistake it for a far more common development, a series of first and second waves, as illustrated in Figure 5.
> 
> http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics2.htm


----------



## wavepicker (15 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hello Whiskers,

Good to see you are having a crack at this and it's great to have another opinion on this thread. 

Not trying to criticize in any way but I feel I can add to what you have already posted.

IMO the main emphasis with EW is not counting, it's pattern recognition just like with traditional pattern analysis. Everything should focus around the expected or recognized pattern tracing out. 

 If you can imagine the price action as an IC engine, then the pattern of the trend is the foundation or the engine block. Everything else such as indicators, wave counts, time Cycles and Cyclic Analysis and trendlines to name a few are what bolts onto the block. Understanding types of trends and patterns of trends is crucial.

In terms of EW one crucial aspect that I always keep in the back of my mind:
*The larger patterns control the smaller patterns.*
The EW patterns in question need to have *the right look*. If at *first glance *they don't, it's easy, forget them and move on and find or for something that does. 

Now have a good look at the last chart you posted. You have labelled this circled wave 1. What do you know about a wave 1? Well firstly it has to be be an impulse, 12345. These can either be a normal impulse(with no overlaps) OR a leading diagonal triangle wherbeby the wave 4 low overlaps the top of wave 1.(The minor waves of a leading diagional count as 5's not 3's)

To me at first glance this wave structure looks like a (abc). Therefore this leg up from 5130 to to 6060 is most likely not a wave 1 but rather something else. Remember 3 waves always unfold against the one larger trend, the one larger trend is down. Now have a good look at the minor subdivisions of this leg up I have talking about. Do they look like your standard impulse waves? Absolutely not, to me they they look more like 3's. This is especially the case where you are trying to count an impulse and you come accross overlaps. Remember overlaps mean the price action is corrective in nature. Ending diagonals do crop up, but leading diagonals are very rare. So remeber a struggling, choppy overlapping trend = corrective. 

The pattern/count you have indentified on the current leg down is spot on IMO but I would label it as wave a of another abc move down not wave 2 for the reason stated earlier. So currently the market should rally into a minor b wave up and retrace 38.2 to 50% of the last leg down before heading south again to complete wave c of the larger abc pattern.

There is nothing difficult here. Too many people unecessarily condemn EW as too difficult when in fact it's actually quite easy. All it requires is time and effort to understand the types of pattern you are dealing with and learn to trade around them.

Because EW is very graphical in nature, it can trake a while to grasp what is presented in books and courses. EWI has the best resources for learning EW. If you invest in their 10Hr DVD tutorial, it's probably much easier and quicker to grasp.



Cheers


----------



## Boggo (15 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Along these lines Wavepicker ?


----------



## wavepicker (15 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> Along these lines Wavepicker ?




Hello Boggo, yes could be a wave 4, could also be a wave B. Does not really matter as they both imply the same.


----------



## Whiskers (15 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wavepicker, yeah I actually looked at the wave count your talking about, but I liked the look of the present way for the moment based on the asumption that it's about to turn and I reckon there's a bit of positive divergance going on.

So I'll be watching closely how high this next leg takes us.

Btw wavepicker, actually tech/a, porper, any ew'ers for that matter... whats your view of increased leverage in the markets distorting EW analysis?


----------



## motorway (16 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Another cross check for me was the P&F chart showing that this little correction is still a long way of coming back to the down trend line. Motorway, your the expert there. What say you?




clarity clarity clarity  



> Thus the 3 point ( reversal  ) chart brings out a condition that is not always
> immediately apparent from a casual glance at the 1 point ( reversal )chart. It
> is important to observe and remember in this connection that the
> inability of a stock to reverse its trend three full points or more,
> ...






> DO NOT fritter away your time reading the financial news and
> gossip columns. The less you know of this stuff the better off you
> will be. Much of this material may be colored by the opinions and
> prejudices of the writers whose business is journalism, not
> ...




The chart give it's own interpretation
consider it with the B% chart

notice how wide the mkt is ?



> Whereas bear markets generally terminate in narrow price movements
> to the accompaniment of low volume and listless trading, bull
> markets terminate in relatively wide price swings accompanied by
> high volume and more or less feverish activity, although volume may
> ...




Look for where the behavior changes IMPORTANT

length of columns . follow through
highs lows

A bit busy atm

over to you 

Some quotes from Richard D Wyckoff , who was a prolific user of P&F or

"Figure Charts"

Also consider what Livermore's Market Key ( A chart in Tabular form )
Would look like  as a chart 


motorway


----------



## motorway (16 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

One Box Reversal 

You want to look at the relationship
of the vertical "thrust" to the Horizontal

The 45 degree trend  ( secret P&F business )
 ( relates to information flow ...manipulation )

And ( among other things ) helps define "legs"

notice the change from vertical to the horizontal
How the thrusts shortened
How the reactions deepened

SUPPLY..... 



> on the ( one box reversal )
> figure chart  we find the greatest aid: (a) in determining how
> far a stock should go; (b) when it meets opposition, viz., when it
> has about reached the end of its move; and with the help of the
> ...




Reduced the size to fit some context

45 degree movement is essential to understand.


motorway


----------



## juw177 (16 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think what Motorway is saying is that the P&F chart suggests there will be a test of the previous down bar. If the test comes with high volume panic and frenzy, a reversal is likely. Otherwise there will be a double bottom break down.


----------



## tech/a (16 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Whiskers.*
How much of the market is controlled by domestic "leveraged funds".
Id say very little.
The big end of town use more than 1000s of domestic punters in all the big caps which move the market.

Even so leveraged or not--Elliott principal in my view isn't altered.

Like all analysis Elliot,Support Resistance,P&F
its simply a technical landscape which supplies the analyst points of reference which in time will be proven OR disproven.

The benifit of Elliott is that as the market morphs so to does the analysis,when its both proven and disproven.
When practitioners get their head around this they can truely understand the "complexity--simplicity " of Elliott.




> only difference is that if the count isn't simple, Miner will move on,



A very important point for traders.
There are plenty of counts which just scream at you.


----------



## motorway (16 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> whats your view of increased leverage in the markets distorting EW analysis?




I do not use EW.

But leverage has a large effect on reactions

High levels of margin ( cfds margin loans etc ) act like stop loss cascades..
So when a shakeout or profit taking occurs

reactions can be  deep and violent  







> look how wide the market is





But Emerging from a bear market

when margin levels are lower (look at the breakout from 2003 on the P&F )

Stocks pause but cash continually flows into the market
and reactions can be very  shallow..

Wait for the pullback WHAT pullback 

Guess When margin use is at it's highest ?

( JUST LOOK AT THE CHART )

The identification of changes in margin as altering  the depth of reactions.
Was made at least as early as the late 1920s



motorway


----------



## tech/a (16 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

M/W

Along the same lines.
Ive noticed aggressive shock moves from *auto stop placement software*.
If you look at a logical technical stop---and I'll use CUE as an example as this was discussed on Radges site.
115 traders were at the same stop level--I was a couple of cents above the "logical level".I was filled with no slippage however others which were at the logical level suffered enormous slippage as the 115 trades were filled from the depth of buyers.
This all took a few seconds.

Even so i still dont think this alters the longterm analysis.


----------



## Nick Radge (16 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

CUE was never a recommendation of mine. I can't see why my name is brought into this?


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> How much of the market is controlled by domestic "leveraged funds".
> Id say very little.
> The big end of town use more than 1000s of domestic punters in all the big caps which move the market.




You are forgetting or don't realize the XAO is controlled buy the SPI swingers (leveraged). And they have most definitely been in control of our little Aussie market ALL of this year.


----------



## tech/a (16 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nick apologies.
I will be more careful when mentioning your site.
I only did as some here who were involved in the discussion would remember the discussion.
Never meant to imply it was a recommendation of yours.

But can see clearly how this could be *misconstrewed*.

So I'll make it as clear as possible that you had *NO* recommendation on CUE.
It was purely an observation of mine.


----------



## GreatPig (16 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That's CEY, not CUE.

GP


----------



## davo8 (17 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



juw177 said:


> I think what Motorway is saying is that the P&F chart suggests there will be a test of the previous down bar. If the test comes with high volume panic and frenzy, a reversal is likely. Otherwise there will be a double bottom break down.




So in other words, the market will go up, or down.

Is there anything in that complicated wave stuff to disagree with or improve on the simple view that the primary trend is down and we're headed for a re-test of support at 5170-ish?


----------



## tech/a (17 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> That's CEY, not CUE.
> 
> GP




So it is!


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Is there anything in that complicated wave stuff to disagree with or improve on the simple view




What else do you want a money back guarantee. :


----------



## Boggo (17 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> So in other words, the market will go up, or down.
> 
> Is there anything in that complicated wave stuff to disagree with or improve on the simple view that the primary trend is down and we're headed for a re-test of support at 5170-ish?




Davo8, my view of the world is that it will climb up to around the 5600 area and then resume its downtrend.

I may be completely wrong but its probably closer to a sensible reply 
The UK is very strong tonight which may be an indication of how the US may behave which as you are aware can have an overriding influence.

Just my


----------



## Whiskers (20 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The XAO is getting a bit close to the low the other day of 5,399.

The indicators seems poised for a take-off again soon... the MACD is continuing to converge. 

...maybe a bit of a bounce by the close today to get going north again

...or I might have to revise my EW count again.


----------



## Broadway (20 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> The XAO is getting a bit close to the low the other day of 5,399.
> 
> The indicators seems poised for a take-off again soon... the MACD is continuing to converge.
> 
> ...




Agreed, volume across the financials in asx20, and volume across the asia indexes.
And plenty of spi DOM pressure up.

We'll see what happens..


----------



## davo8 (20 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> The XAO is getting a bit close to the low the other day of 5,399. The indicators seems poised for a take-off again soon... the MACD is continuing to converge. ...maybe a bit of a bounce by the close today to get going north again




Or the wave-free suggestion that we're just headed for a test of 5200? If the US is sick tonight, watch out below!


----------



## MRC & Co (20 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Or the wave-free suggestion that we're just headed for a test of 5200? If the US is sick tonight, watch out below!




lol, there is a lot of surfing going on around here huh!

Big obvious thing for me, crude has formed a beautiful bullish flag on low volume.  Though, would like to see volume dropping off.  

That being said, I am definately a believer in gaps being filled and that one below looks far from a breakaway or runaway gap with prices struggling to push further.  

I think it is going to break one way or the other, though that gap close may act as support to take off from if it comes to fruition.  Anything below that and I am definately bullish on the XAO.  

Trying to add some more longs to hedge my overweight shorts at the moment, until this flag breaks.


----------



## explod (20 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well Comsec at a seminar yesterday were reported to have said that it will be above 6000 by the end of the year.

After todays effort on a DJIA rise last close, I wonder at that.


----------



## MRC & Co (20 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Well Comsec at a seminar yesterday were reported to have said that it will be above 6000 by the end of the year.




Comsec crystal ball is probably about as accurate is 99.999% of other peoples! 

50%


----------



## >Apocalypto< (21 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Such beautiful moves on the XAO long move down to double bottom. to clean rally up to clean rally down. non choppy clean moves. 

I am now getting more bullish on the daily i think we will keep moving down a touch to 5200 -5100 think at that point a bottom could come in. range to rally. if the low / support breaks then time to look at were the first counter gets to.

See chart

Good trading


----------



## wavepicker (21 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Agreed Joseph. 5100-5200 has good chance of offering support, but the bounce IMO will be only good for a couple of hundred points before the 5K level gives way. 

I am still banking on 4600-4800 before we get a sustained rally and not a suckers move. If one thinks prices are cheap now, I think there will be even better value and opportunities in the future

Cheers


----------



## CamKawa (21 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Well Comsec at a seminar yesterday were reported to have said that it will be above 6000 by the end of the year.
> 
> After todays effort on a DJIA rise last close, I wonder at that.



Well I think XAT is running a little bit behind Comsec's 20 Jul 2007 plan already. Here's a quote "CommSec expects the ASX 200 index to reach 7,000 points by June 2008." from https://www.comsec.com.au/public/news.aspx?id=849 it's currently at 5295.


----------



## CamKawa (21 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> I am still banking on 4600-4800 before we get a sustained rally and not a suckers move. If one thinks prices are cheap now, I think there will be even better value and opportunities in the future
> 
> Cheers



Do you think that will be "the" bottom or just "a" bottom, or is it too hard to tell?


----------



## >Apocalypto< (21 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Agreed Joseph. 5100-5200 has good chance of offering support, but the bounce IMO will be only good for a couple of hundred points before the 5K level gives way.
> 
> I am still banking on 4600-4800 before we get a sustained rally and not a suckers move. If one thinks prices are cheap now, I think there will be even better value and opportunities in the future
> 
> Cheers




for sure mate.

My view is of the short term only. I got a tip from from a certain system I am using that a bounce on the S&P500 could be coming. 

that support is also a triangle pattern that has more bearish implications.

cheers mate


----------



## wavepicker (21 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> for sure mate.
> 
> My view is of the short term only. I got a tip from from a certain system I am using that a bounce on the S&P500 could be coming.
> 
> ...





gee I woould not mind seeing it one day, must be pretty unique and quite an edge!


----------



## >Apocalypto< (21 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> gee I woould not mind seeing it one day, must be pretty unique and quite an edge!




mate you would not believe it if I told you!


----------



## davo8 (21 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Agreed Joseph. 5100-5200 has good chance of offering support, but the bounce IMO will be only good for a couple of hundred points before the 5K level gives way.
> 
> I am still banking on 4600-4800 before we get a sustained rally and not a suckers move. If one thinks prices are cheap now, I think there will be even better value and opportunities in the future
> Cheers




Couldn't agree more. There's just too much bad news still not factored into the prices. The real bargains are still months off. Don't forget 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992...


----------



## wavepicker (21 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*




CamKawa said:


> Do you think that will be "the" bottom or just "a" bottom, or is it too hard to tell?




Who knows! We all have our views and most of the time they are wrong, but personally when the time comes I will expecting a MAJOR low, but for the market still to be choppy and range bound for years. Nevertheless we can get some good rallies. 

I would not be surprised to see a one year rally after this low with a similar pattern of trend to the (3 waves) that we had in the decline. That is the pattern I am playing with.  After such a strong bullmarket 3rd wave that lasted 20 years 1987-2007, we usually have such consolidations. 
As an example just look at the DJIA after the depression lows till it's high in 1966. It was range bound for years(15-16yrs). That period was similar to what we have been seeing of late, war, spiralling inflation and an oil shock.

 I don't think our market will exhibit a consolidation for as long, I was thinking more like 4 -7years when looked at relative to the 20 year 3rd wave.


----------



## wavepicker (25 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Gonna stick my neck out here and call a termination for this current leg down.

I am looking for approx a 50 % upward retrace of the last leg down to complete wave e and this sideways green wave B and before we head south again.

Any opinions and comments welcome


----------



## SGB (25 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Gonna stick my neck out here and call a termination for this current leg down.
> 
> I am looking for approx a 50 % upward retrace of the last leg down to complete wave e and this sideways green wave B and before we head south again.
> 
> Any opinions and comments welcome




Good to see you back WP,
enjoy your analysis. Nothing wrong with sticking the neck out. 
Mines go a bit shorter lately

SGB


----------



## wavepicker (25 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



SGB said:


> Good to see you back WP,
> enjoy your analysis. Nothing wrong with sticking the neck out.
> Mines go a bit shorter lately
> 
> SGB




Thanks SGB. My neck neck has been shortened considerably over the years too!!

Seems to be quite a bit of confluence building up here. 8Hr Cycles Analysis backs up EW structure for a multi day rally here. Prices have reached an extreme relative to the Nominal trend, and thus ahave a high probability of at least retracing back to the blue nominal level in the days ahead. Mind you this might only be a short term rally. Apocalypto and myself saw this in the SP500 last night and it has set up a nice long trade this evening.

Cheers


----------



## Whiskers (25 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Wavepicker

Since the XAO did that last little WOOBLY it stuffed up my 'L' plate count. I remember you saying usually the waves stick out, just look right, and I thought the count you have looked more obvious, but I'm unsure... no actually I haven't a clue, why you would call such a short wace 'c' relative to 'a'.

 In other words, what's the significance of such a long wave 'a' compared to 'c'?

Excuse me for scrawling over your chart.


----------



## dhukka (25 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> no actually I haven't a clue,




Finally we get some clarity from Whiskers.


----------



## Whiskers (25 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Finally we get some clarity from Whiskers.




Humility, dhukka... humility.

You wanna try some one day. :


----------



## wavepicker (25 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Hi Wavepicker
> 
> why you would call such a short wace 'c' relative to 'a'.
> 
> ...




Generally wave a = wave c. This is only a *guideline*. It happens more often than not. It is not a rule. True the obvious scenario is that wave a =c and that could well happen. In fact if using EW in isolation that is the preferred scenario i would use. But at present in the context of the Cycles Analysis it is a lower probability IMO. Time will tell.....


----------



## Broadway (25 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I hope it's a bottom, but its a fairly gradual bottom, which makes me nervous.

All the right elements seem to have happened.

Lots of volume, large block trades scattered around, put call ratios doing what they should do at bottoms. etc.

Some capitulation, good volatility in asia, options week came and went, lots of bad news. XLF has turned up.

Problem is that every time it rallies, theres no real follow through that Ive seen so far. So many bears out there with itchy sell buttons, jumping on any weak retracement.

Plus a whole new pile of resistance from new people looking to break even.

I guess people are looking for a sensational piece of good news, but no-one can imagine where thats coming from. Fed wont help.

I hope it goes up for a while, but one more episode of really ****ty capitulation wouldn't surprise me either.


----------



## Gundini (25 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> I hope it's a bottom, but its a fairly gradual bottom, which makes me nervous.
> 
> All the right elements seem to have happened.
> 
> ...




Well thought out Broadway, and interesting optimistic view on the future. 
I love this insight, and thankyou for it. 
Myself.... I can't see anything but a suckers rally, not enough water under the bridge just yet, although I must admit getting itchy fingers of late, but what stock represents a bargain in these times? 

Looks a bear market to me. 

PS: Thanks for revitalizing this thread!


----------



## SGB (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It’s come to crunch time for the XAO over the next couple of days IMO.

As the graph shows we have currently hit a major trendline which starts at the beginning of the Bull campaign back in 03, and finishes on the 38.2 retracement levels.

Agree WP, that we will be heading more south in the near term, but I feel if it does not see green on Monday or Tuesdays and trendline collapses , that downdraft will be a lot sooner than later.

Watching with caution. 

SGB


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



SGB said:


> As the graph shows we have currently hit a major trendline which starts at the beginning of the Bull campaign back in 03, and finishes on the 38.2 retracement levels.




Wondering if that trend line is really there. That is it looks like the 03 trend has already been broken. well and truly back in JAN


----------



## Temjin (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Wondering if that trend line is really there. That is it looks like the 03 trend has already been broken. well and truly back in JAN




I agree, that trend line shouldn't be there. The long term one has already been decisively broken back a while ago.


----------



## SGB (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My Apologies, Not the major,

I got a bit excited there thinking about next week. 
I was working on a Gann Fan Point. Just happened to be there.


----------



## MRC & Co (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



SGB said:


> My Apologies, Not the major,




Not a major, but still an area of support nonetheless.

I would hope to see a capitulaiton should it (or the actual pivot low) be breeched.  The sooner the better.  

Angry at myself, have been adding longs to hedge all my shorts, but they keep getting stopped out!  Now back to 9 shorts and 3 longs!


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting game all this week. We have gaped down heavily overnight from crappy OS leads BUT the Big Boyz have tried hard to fix things. We have actually risen every day this week!! From the open that is. The two charts below show what I mean. The left one is the overnight SPI movement, while the right is the movement during day hours. Very unusual pattern, red nights green days, topped off today with a great effort on big volume. If this isn't a healthy effort from the Boyz showing a bit of a change from risk adverse to risk taking god knows what will hold this dog up.


----------



## MRC & Co (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeh, that is very strange.

I would think a bit of a breather would be in store after it's recent run, but I am starting to feel like the US markets may just be about to capitulate.  

I only have 2 shorts open on the ASX, everything else is in the US currently.

Strange time, really getting to the point where everything appears like it is ready to break, one way or the other.  From the indices, to both gold and oil.  Even wheat is getting back it's strong momentum, all looking like a very ominous sign globally.  

I really think we are in unchartered waters and it's scary to think what might come to be.  Might be MUCH MUCH worse than people expect IMO.  

Global paradigm shift is about the only way I can explain it.


----------



## tcoates (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not hinting at direction or (insert word here)... You might also disagree with my placement of the trend lines and/or use of log scale. But here is a monthly chart back to '87...




Another interesting note that is volume on both the XAO and Dow over time... On the XAO it seems to be constant (?) over time 0.5B to 1B


http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^AORD#chart1:symbol=^aord;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=ohlc;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

for the DJIA the volume is expanding somewhat (possible association with increased volatility?) from .9B (2000) to 4B today. Chart here...

 http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=ohlc;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
 
Might mean nothing, but...

Tim


----------



## theasxgorilla (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoates said:


> Not hinting at direction or (insert word here)... You might also disagree with my placement of the trend lines and/or use of log scale. But here is a monthly chart back to '87...




On the contrary, I think it puts things into relatively clear perspective.


----------



## SGB (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> You might also disagree with my placement of the trend lines and/or use of log scale. But here is a monthly chart back to '87...
> 
> 
> Tim




Quite an interesting read. Where is that middle line ending in current values.
Looks around the 5000 mark.


----------



## MRC & Co (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> On the contrary, I think it puts things into relatively clear perspective.




It does.  

4000 anyone?


----------



## tcoates (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Chart updated with middle line extended. At current time it is around 4500... You can extend the line to see where it could go 




Tim


----------



## Whiskers (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The proff just alerted me to the 'death of the oil (highjackers) speculators' bill passing the US congress.

Have'nt got the full gist of the bill yet, but on face value it should put an end to this spirialling highjacked oil price threatening to drive the world into recession.

In my opinion it has been that factor alone that has continued to put downward pressure on world stock markets. All the subprime credit crunch stuff has pretty well fhizzled out now, still without a recession, let alone the worst depression since... when ever it was.




> professor_frink said:
> 
> 
> > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBOhMpxHVbJE&refer=home
> ...


----------



## wayneL (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> The proff just alerted me to the 'death of the oil (highjackers) speculators' bill passing the US congress.
> 
> Have'nt got the full gist of the bill yet, but on face value it should put an end to this spirialling highjacked oil price threatening to drive the world into recession.
> 
> In my opinion it has been that factor alone that has continued to put downward pressure on world stock markets. All the subprime credit crunch stuff has pretty well fhizzled out now, still without a recession, let alone the worst depression since... when ever it was.




Well since the announcement, oil has gone down by a whopping.... errrr... umm... it's gone up.

August crude @ > $141 now.

Credit crunch fizzled out????? Oh my!!! Have a closer look Whiskers, it has just transmogrified in a credit crisis.


----------



## sassa (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> The proff just alerted me to the 'death of the oil (highjackers) speculators' bill passing the US congress.
> 
> Have'nt got the full gist of the bill yet, but on face value it should put an end to this spirialling highjacked oil price threatening to drive the world into recession.
> 
> In my opinion it has been that factor alone that has continued to put downward pressure on world stock markets. All the subprime credit crunch stuff has pretty well fhizzled out now, still without a recession, let alone the worst depression since... when ever it was.



There are certainly some "if's" and but's" about this bill.



> ``Sentiment may push prices down initially,'' said Mark Pervan






> Crude oil for August delivery fell as much as $1.03, or 0.7 percent, to $138.61 a barrel in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $139.38 a barrel at 9:35 a.m. Singapore time



And is $139.64 now.


> The measure is ``not likely to be bullish,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York. ``You can argue that it may not be effective, but I don't know that you can actually argue that it's bullish.''
> 
> The measure needs to be passed by the Senate and signed by the president before becoming law.


----------



## Whiskers (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Well since the announcement, oil has gone down by a whopping.... errrr... umm... it's gone up.
> 
> August crude @ > $141 now.
> 
> Credit crunch fizzled out????? Oh my!!! Have a closer look Whiskers, it has just transmogrified in a credit crisis.






sassa said:


> There are certainly some "if's" and but's" about this bill.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Gees, it's hard to be the bearer of good news around here. :

But hang on, I said "pretty well" fhizzled out... and anyway the senate and bloomin ole oil man Bush might not sign off on it yet. 

Those big bad ole speculators might know more than us little pip squeaks.

Augh... I think I'll have to call it a night while I figure out the meaning of this one over another schnaps or two... _transmogrified_...  hmm.


----------



## wayneL (27 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Augh... I think I'll have to call it a night while I figure out the meaning of this one over another schnaps or two... _transmogrified_...  hmm.






Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1) - Cite This Source - Share This
trans·mog·ri·fy    Audio Help   /trÃ¦nsˈmɒgrəˌfaɪ, trÃ¦nz-/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[trans-mog-ruh-fahy, tranz-] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–verb (used with object), -fied, -fy·ing.
to change in appearance or form, esp. strangely or grotesquely; transform.


----------



## rederob (28 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> It does.
> 
> 4000 anyone?




Errrrr, ummmmmmm ..... yes.
Tim's earlier chart shows that there have been significant corrections, bringing back the allords to a nice support point before resuming the business as usual channel.
What's different this time?
It's the changing of the guard.
It's the baton pass from West to East.
It's going to be interesting as there are divergent driving forces.
The West is debt laden and trying to maintain strong currencies.
The East is cashed up and in no hurry to appreciate their currencies.
The West is buying into Asia to maintain profits.
The East is buying into corporations to secure raw materials and increase its access to international markets.
I think we are looking at a few years for these themes to work through.
In the interim, global markets will do it tough.
The US will be most deeply affected by a quadruple whammy: Massive debt; weakening purchasing power; over dependence on oil; and loss of markets.


----------



## MRC & Co (28 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rederob said:


> Errrrr, ummmmmmm ..... yes.
> Tim's earlier chart shows that there have been significant corrections, bringing back the allords to a nice support point before resuming the business as usual channel.
> What's different this time?




If you read my earlier posts, you will see the big grin is because I want it to happen (being loaded with shorts) and as stated, I agree it could.


----------



## theasxgorilla (28 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The suspense of weekends like this kills me...I want to fast forward to next Friday and find out whether the US market closes below those significant lows and whether the XAO reaches 5200 already.


----------



## Whiskers (28 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> The suspense of weekends like this kills me...I want to fast forward to next Friday and find out whether the US market closes below those significant lows and whether the XAO reaches 5200 already.




Yeah me too. I'm itching overwhelmingly to get into a couple of positions before Bush signs off on the oil speculator bill.

I think rederob has summed up the bigger dynamic pretty well. But I have this feeling that something out of the ordinary is going to happen with this new US oil legislation which will change things substantially... not unlike the FED deciding to lend direct to large corporations.


----------



## JZ009 (29 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dow Jones went down 350pts on last thursday night, another 100 points on friday night, and AUS SPI 200 futures hardly moved after all.

Does that mean we expect share market to drop heavily on Monday, or the market itself has found its bottom? Bargin hunters will buy just because everything is so cheap from a long term perpective?


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



JZ009 said:


> Dow Jones went down 350pts on last thursday night, another 100 points on friday night, and AUS SPI 200 futures hardly moved after all.
> 
> Does that mean we expect share market to drop heavily on Monday, or the market itself has found its bottom? Bargin hunters will buy just because everything is so cheap from a long term perpective?




I've said it once or twice before(maybe 1000 times). You cannot take US results and think the ASX will follow them. you especially cannot take a 30 stock index and apply their daily ticks to our market. If you have a look at a proper index the US did nothing Friday.

And if you decided to to anything more than the lazy "the Dow did this then the ASX will do that" you would of seen that what dragged the DOW down was stocks that have little to do with the XAO. Also the materials/energy plays ended up 1-4% in the US.

Rant Rant.


----------



## tech/a (29 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On Friday I had 5 long positions.
All shorter term and all increased in price.
2 I closed and 3 remain open.

Even in periods of volatility there will be stocks which continue to rise as if in defiance of the general index.
If trading longer term the challenge of course is to find these gems and have the 
ability to milk as much as you can from them.


----------



## DB008 (29 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

BUT...
At opening, the XAO did drop over 100 points on Friday. So, we do take a lead from the US Index IMO. If the DOW sheds more than 2.5% in my view we will most liekly (70%) also be heading on a slide.
We did recover during the day, but still finished down.
As they said in the Incredible Charts Newsletter that l want to point out, the DOW has lost 1000 points in the last 3 weeks. Is that a sign or what?


----------



## JZ009 (29 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I've said it once or twice before(maybe 1000 times). You cannot take US results and think the ASX will follow them. you especially cannot take a 30 stock index and apply their daily ticks to our market. If you have a look at a proper index the US did nothing Friday.
> 
> And if you decided to to anything more than the lazy "the Dow did this then the ASX will do that" you would of seen that what dragged the DOW down was stocks that have little to do with the XAO. Also the materials/energy plays ended up 1-4% in the US.
> 
> Rant Rant.




I agree with what you saying. But it is just too many times that SPI200 fell just about exact of 50% what Dow Jones was doing. For a recent example, Thursday night, DOW fell 350 pts, SPI 200 fell as low as 170 pts on Friday Morning, before it recovered throughout the day. There certainly is a some sort of colleration between the two. 

Fair enough that you can not compare US companies with XJO, but it will cetainly dictate where the aussie market will go and size of the movement for the first half hour. I predict when the aussie market opens on Monday, SPI 200 future index will fall between 40-50pts.....to reflect the fall in DJ.


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



DB008 said:


> As they said in the Incredible Charts Newsletter that l want to point out, the DOW has lost 1000 points in the last 3 weeks. Is that a sign or what?




This is where I think this type of analysis is wrong, The DOW did this we will follow type comments. (yes she is all linked in the end BUT)
We ended up every day this week from the open(see my spi charts above) in spite of persistent downward momentum in the US. 
Friday we were close to 1:1 advancers to decliners with the US dow 3.5% that night!!!!.
We lost only 1% for the week which was pretty much the Monday morn drop. 
The true US indexes have not taken out their last lows unlike the dodgy DOW.

If you are thinking we are 1:1 with the DOW what hope have you got of ever looking and finding divergence????????????????????
US moves certainly on a intraday basis should be faded not followed.



JZ009 said:


> Fair enough that you can not compare US companies with XJO, but it will cetainly dictate where the aussie market will go and size of the movement for the first half hour.



 Actually we started to rise before the ASX was fully open so it was pretty much baked in in the first tick of each stock on Friday. Then we went our own way.



JZ009 said:


> I predict when the aussie market opens on Monday, SPI 200 future index will fall between 40-50pts.....to reflect the fall in DJ.



 Lov it. lets see hey.


----------



## nizar (29 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Friday we were close to 1:1 advancers to decliners with the US dow 3.5% that night!!!!.




Hi TH.

I agree with the rest of your arguments in this post (and generally) but what does advances:decliners have to do with percent movement?

I think the weighting of the components is an important factor to consider as we could well have 1:1 advancers/decliners and still fall 3.5%.


----------



## JZ009 (29 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In general...I think the ASX market will rise over the next week, but start dipping in the new phase of downward trend...starts Thursday night, US unemployment figure.....

I can't see how the stock market is going up in the short term, provided that inflation is up, interest rate (possibly one more) up, unemployment up, retails sales down....i just could not think of any positive economic news at the moment....

What do you guys think?


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> what does advances:decliners have to do with percent movement?




Not much. But not many people trade an index so index percentages are not much value.



nizar said:


> I think the weighting of the components is an important factor to consider as we could well have 1:1 advancers/decliners and still fall 3.5%.




But my point was just because a funnily grouped basket of 30 stocks in the US fell doesn't mean that you should throw your hands up, dump your stocks on the open and turn mega Bear. The Adv/Dec ratio showed that there was a large degree of stocks showing bullish divergence against the DOW. That half of the ASX doesn't give a toss, at the moment, what the 'Muppet Index' does.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



JZ009 said:


> I agree with what you saying. But it is just too many times that SPI200 fell just about exact of 50% what Dow Jones was doing. For a recent example, Thursday night, DOW fell 350 pts, SPI 200 fell as low as 170 pts on Friday Morning, before it recovered throughout the day. There certainly is a some sort of colleration between the two.
> 
> Fair enough that you can not compare US companies with XJO, but it will cetainly dictate where the aussie market will go and size of the movement for the first half hour. I predict when the aussie market opens on Monday, SPI 200 future index will fall between 40-50pts.....to reflect the fall in DJ.




No chocolates on that call!! Well the points movement was right just the direction wrong. 
Interestingly the rest of Asia has also given a big yawn to the DOW 1% fall


----------



## JZ009 (30 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> No chocolates on that call!! Well the points movement was right just the direction wrong.
> Interestingly the rest of Asia has also given a big yawn to the DOW 1% fall




It seems that the market will be closed down by 30-40 pts.....there is no support for the market ......I suspect when the Hang Seng reopens, you will see the negativities ----.....


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



JZ009 said:


> It seems that the market will be closed down by 30-40 pts.....there is no support for the market ......I suspect when the Hang Seng reopens, you will see the negativities ----.....




LOL
The HSI reopens @ 4:30.

So first we were going to drop "40-50" on the open because of the Muppet index. we did the opposite!!

Now there is no support and we are going to drop when?? after we close

Keep them coming JZ. V.funny


----------



## JZ009 (30 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> LOL
> The HSI reopens @ 4:30.
> 
> So first we were going to drop "40-50" on the open because of the Muppet index. we did the opposite!!
> ...




If you have been checking the market, surely I don't need to tell you when
SPI 5223.00  -39.00.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So JZ just to be clear that was because of the DOW?? Or the soon to open HSI or was it that the little old ASX went its own way today?


----------



## juw177 (30 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Holy crap, 140 point swing in the SPI from open to close.

In the last few weeks, the SPI has held up well when the Dow tanked. You could have consistently made money by shorting the SPI on XAO close and covering it when the Dow opens. But people have caught on to this so now a drop in the dow no longer causes a drop in the SPI.

And you know what happens when people catch onto a trend, it will do something unpredictable like it did today.


----------



## JZ009 (30 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> So JZ just to be clear that was because of the DOW?? Or the soon to open HSI or was it that the little old ASX went its own way today?




Just a little tip for you, that was beacause of DOW. If DOW was going up by 100pts, you will not see ASX going down today.


----------



## professor_frink (30 June 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



JZ009 said:


> Just a little tip for you, that was beacause of DOW. If DOW was going up by 100pts, you will not see ASX going down today.




Sorry mate but you are full of ****

The original post from yesterday- 



> Fair enough that you can not compare US companies with XJO, but it will cetainly dictate where the aussie market will go and size of the movement for the first half hour. I predict when the aussie market opens on Monday, SPI 200 future index will fall between 40-50pts.....to reflect the fall in DJ.




Unfortunately the only thing we did at today's open was rally. Probably not a good idea to try and gloat when what you originally said was wrong.


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Boy Oh Boy. The Financials today joined the Consumer Disc, Consumer Stables, Healthcare, MidCaps, Industrials & Property by taking outs its March lows . That bit of buying pressure from last week has evaporated this week.


----------



## juw177 (1 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Futures and sentiment in the US point to a frightening day on the DOW tonight... and we will probably follow suit in the morning.


----------



## wayneL (1 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yowza!!

I wonder what an XAO in the 4000's will do to sentiment?

As a side issue, I want to go back to Geraldton & Perth for a couple of weeks and claim my guru status.... (I told them so) 

:batman:


----------



## explod (1 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Yowza!!
> 
> I wonder what an XAO in the 4000's will do to sentiment?
> 
> ...




Sentiment will be a bit bent.  But on looking at the Dow I see 3 support points that could well break with the news coming to light which would put it also at 4000.    Just have a good look at the 10 year Dow Chart and tell me that this idea is not on the cards, and will the cat get among the pidgions then, no he.s been sipping my left overs, ambivelent and willing to be a sucker all the way.


----------



## MichaelD (1 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm going to stick my neck out and say we are bottoming.

I've never seen such an avalanche of negative news and sentiment in the media. It seems an absolute certainty that the world is about to implode if you believe them and you have any sense now is the time to short the market. Going long right now seems like the stupidest idea in the world.

Therefore, it must be right.

Go LONG!


----------



## wayneL (1 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MichaelD said:


> I'm going to stick my neck out and say we are bottoming.
> 
> I've never seen such an avalanche of negative news and sentiment in the media. It seems an absolute certainty that the world is about to implode if you believe them and you have any sense now is the time to short the market. Going long right now seems like the stupidest idea in the world.
> 
> ...




Might need a capitulation low first.


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Might need a capitulation low first.




Commsuc & Etrade must be due for a meltdown again. 2morrow??


----------



## Kelpie (1 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Might need a capitulation low first.




wayne, could you please describe for a layman like me, what you actually mean by 'capitulation'? many thanks.


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's the final give up of the weak hands, a shake out. When the worried and leveraged give up hope and puke out their holdings into a large fall on big volume. When the pain of holding into a falling market finally kills all hope. like on 16th Aug 07, 22 Jan 08. Normally get a big drop on the open then a huge rally the same day as there is no more selling left.


----------



## wayneL (1 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kelpie said:


> wayne, could you please describe for a layman like me, what you actually mean by 'capitulation'? many thanks.



What he said ^^


----------



## Kelpie (1 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> It's the final give up of the weak hands, a shake out. When the worried and leveraged give up hope and puke out their holdings into a large fall on big volume. When the pain of holding into a falling market finally kills all hope. like on 16th Aug 07, 22 Jan 08. Normally get a big drop on the open then a huge rally the same day as there is no more selling left.




Thanks Mr Hand - that explanation was just what I needed!


----------



## dhukka (1 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Might need a capitulation low first.




A final capitulation is what has been missing in the last month. If you take out January of this year when the XAO fell *-11.3%*, the XAO just had it's worst single month decline (*-7.6%*) in almost 10 years. In August 1998 the XAO fell (*-8.3%*). However the decline has been very orderly. No real panic, the VIX has not broken out above 24. I'd feel much better about another bear market rally if we had a good old capitualtion day.


----------



## nizar (1 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Might need a capitulation low first.




Double bottom at 5,200 maybe?


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So, we need another capitulation? Having had a couple already isn't enough? Maybe not. 

I note the US media has been calling the requirement for a last shakeout recently. Like being at 2 year lows isn't enough for them either.

Do we really need another capitulation, or is the worst June since 1940 or something good enough?

Yes yes, the bears (financial realists who know best) will tell us there's a long long way to go, the world is about to explode, Stalone is making another Rocky, and Barry Manalow is making a come back. 

Long term chart looks like we've had a nice capitulation, thank you very much.

But what the heck, lets have a few more, I need somewhere to park some cash. 

Nice support at 3500, once those speed bumps at 5000, 4500, 4000 ish are smashed. 

(sorry, not a semi log)


----------



## Kimosabi (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Nice support at 3500, once those speed bumps at 5000, 4500, 4000 ish are smashed.



Yep, I agree 3500 looks like the time to start seriously looking at jumping in back in...

I reckon houses are going to loose up to 2/3rd's of their value and we are going to see a big drop in M1 and M3 with so much debt being wiped out, because our money is based on debt...


----------



## MichaelD (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Might need a capitulation low first.



Can't help but feel the US open at the moment is exactly that. Interesting times.


----------



## wayneL (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MichaelD said:


> Can't help but feel the US open at the moment is exactly that. Interesting times.



I wouldn't call it a capitulation low, but buyers certainly jumped all over it. At least some sort of rally looks like it's on the cards.

Interesting, certainly in view of POO & POG.


----------



## theasxgorilla (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I wouldn't call it a capitulation low, but buyers certainly jumped all over it. At least some sort of rally looks like it's on the cards.
> 
> Interesting, certainly in view of POO & POG.





I'm 20 minutes delayed here but the SPY looks like it might give the low at 1257 a crack before too long!


----------



## wayneL (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> I'm 20 minutes delayed here but the SPY looks like it might give the low at 1257 a crack before too long!



Sheesh! I drop missus off for an appointment in town (bad idea at peak hour in Cheltenham ) and the market turns to crap by the time I get back!

Big, fast swings there.


----------



## korrupt_1 (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Could this be the bottom? Time will tell...


----------



## juw177 (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Everybody around the world are looking for the big bounce.
And when everybody is thinking it will happen, it probably won't happen. So chill out guys.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Love it. Any of the "We follow the DOW" boys like to explain today's and yesterdays nasty falls INSPITE of the DOW action?????????

:sheep:


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Love it. Any of the "We follow the DOW" boys like to explain today's and yesterdays nasty falls INSPITE of the DOW action?????????
> 
> :sheep:



Dow opened down 100pts down, recovered those 100pts, went down another 100pts and recovered those 100pts. Roller coaster. Time still for the XAO to recover too. Too early to call.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Dow opened down 100pts down, recovered those 100pts, went down another 100pts and recovered those 100pts. Roller coaster. Time still for the XAO to recover too. Too early to call.




You cannot be serious? So now we trade the same intraday pattern as the DOW!


----------



## Sean K (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> You cannot be serious? So now we trade the same intraday pattern as the DOW!



Did I say that? 

Perhaps I might have said calling intra day movements of where the final figure will be at the bell is a bit preemptive.


----------



## korrupt_1 (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I find doing opposite to what the DOW does has a higher probability of success... more often than not. When the...

... DOW goes UP.... SPI fades DOWN
... DOW goes DOWN... SPI fades UP...

This strategy works best when the DOW moves about +/-100pts the night before. (Probably the result of "fading the gap" strategy)

Backtest it to confirm... 

Although, if it was this easy, everyone will be onto it. So having said that... anything goes and nothing is gauranteed to work.


----------



## Wysiwyg (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> You cannot be serious?




John Mc Enroe



kennas said:


> Did I say that?




That`s funny.



.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

She going to break out?? She has been pushing one way for some time. You would think if it does it would be in danger of falling back.


----------



## CamKawa (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

WTF TH, your chart is upside down.


----------



## MichaelD (2 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> WTF TH, your chart is upside down.



That was in fact the point of the post (and a very well made one indeed, too I might add TH).


----------



## wayneL (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Yowza!!
> 
> I wonder what an XAO in the 4000's will do to sentiment?




SYCOM just ticked below 5000


----------



## M34N (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dow Jones Basic Resources Index down a whopping 9.5% today, BHP down 6% and RIO down 8% in NY, what's going on there? Haven't seen a move like that for a long time, especially with the USD going down again, would of figured this would of supported the resources, including oil going up again.

Who knows where support will be once 5000 is breached, 4800? 4600? Might be time to short the big miners. Interesting to see ConocoPhillips, Exxon, Newmont etc in the US down with oil/gold up, risk aversion?


----------



## dhukka (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A nice spike in the VIX overnight. Could the NFP report give us the catalyst for a capitulation bottom tonight? At least for this leg down of the current bear market?


----------



## lusk (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> A nice spike in the VIX overnight. Could the NFP report give us the catalyst for a capitulation bottom tonight? At least for this leg down of the current bear market?




If you consider the other times the VIX has spiked you would think that it has to get upto around 30, its only gone up 1.5 to 25.5.


----------



## dhukka (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



lusk said:


> If you consider the other times the VIX has spiked you would think that it has to get upto around 30, its only gone up 1.5 to 25.5.




Yep, you would want to see it closer to *35*, however last night was the first time since March it breached 25 and stayed there. Indications are that the NFP report could be weaker than expected tonight, might be a catalyst to get it over the 30 mark if we get some volume behind a sell off. 

Note that the chart below has not been updated for last night's jump to 25.92.


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lets see the Banks lead us out of hell here. Maybe not today but thats what I'm looking at. A bank lead recovery.


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Lets see the Banks lead us out of hell here. Maybe not today but thats what I'm looking at. A bank lead recovery.



It's gotta happen one day. One day.....................


----------



## MichaelD (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Sheesh! I drop missus off for an appointment in town (bad idea at peak hour in Cheltenham ) and the market turns to crap by the time I get back!




(Reminds self of why bottom picking is such a bad idea.)


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MichaelD said:


> (Reminds self of why bottom picking is such a bad idea.)



Some aren't up to it obviously.


----------



## Aussiejeff (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MichaelD said:


> (Reminds self of why bottom picking is such a bad idea.)




I hope you wash your hands afterwards.... :hide:


AJ


----------



## Temjin (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just a tid below critical support now, bloody oil.


----------



## CamKawa (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO is 5085 -126.6 (-2.5%). I didn't think it would fall that much at the open. Bring it on!


----------



## >Apocalypto< (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> Just a tid below critical support now, bloody oil.




Oil is the hedge of the centry for stock portfolios right now!


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Japan has just gone GREEN!!


----------



## Sean K (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Japan has just gone GREEN!!



Signs of capitulation?


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Signs of capitulation?




I have to add that the shorts are just SO strong on the SPI. They will probably lose today but really they have this market by the short n curlys.

They just mark the market down at will. Quite an amazing thing to see when they get going, if your not long that is!!


----------



## sam76 (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Japan has just gone GREEN!!





what is this "green" you speak of?


----------



## theasxgorilla (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I have to add that the shorts are just SO strong on the SPI. They will probably lose today but really they have this market by the short n curlys.
> 
> They just mark the market down at will. Quite an amazing thing to see when they get going, if your not long that is!!




Saw the SPY last night and figured the XAO was due to do something significant today...woke up this morning and it looked like we were headed for a 3% decline...instead, we ended up just of 2% down.  Still, it looks technically damaging to me.

Re the SPY: respect the outside bar.


----------



## prana (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm no chartist, but thougth I might as well ask it. When Greenspan and Bernanke left rates at 1% until 2003, the SPI grossly deviated from the long term support line creating the mother of all asset growths. That's a no brainer, everyone knows that. If the XJO fails to hold support at 5000 (or 4980 thereabouts set back in 06) then the next serious support is quite far down (around 3500-4000) 

Now my question, Australia as I know it (and correct me if I am wrong here) consists mainly of 2 massive industries, Commodities (metals and energy) & Financials. Now the financials have retreated to levels close to early 05's (its unfortunate that the XFJ doesnt go quite back far enough). WBC itself, for example, is quite close to the support line extended from 03, the same goes with ANZ (looks slightly below) and CBA (slightly above). 

So, let me see, if the financials index has retraced that far back, if the XJO is to retrace back to support lines set by long term charts, then, either the financials have to suffer further (very very) serious losses , or the miners are going to get into serious retracement - ie the BHP, RIO, WPLs. Any chartists want to comment on this? 

I've been hedging inflation with oil and just wanted to hear some opinions/comments from others. (XMJ XEJ still looking strong as ever but could change easily on a futures crash (comments??)) Interesting times ahead...


----------



## M34N (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Probably the best news we'll have is coming tomorrow, when the US markets close for the 4th July public holiday and close early tonight!

How ironic to see that the markets react today by boosting the banks and punishing the miners for once, maybe the miners aren't as invisible as everyone seems to think anymore. Shorting time? The big boys have a long way to fall if the financials are anything to go by.


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> How ironic to see that the markets react today by boosting the banks and punishing the miners for once.




No not at. Thats just the normal cycle of the market. As predictable as the sun coming up tomorrow.

 Its still coming up tomorrow isn't.


----------



## M34N (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> No not at. Thats just the normal cycle of the market. As predictable as the sun coming up tomorrow.
> 
> Its still coming up tomorrow isn't.



Normal cycle? What's normal in this market exactly? lol

BTW, I meant invincible not invisible  damn late nights


----------



## Broadway (3 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

GO THE USD !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Please give us a 1-2 week rally - perfect timing with the USA holiday.


----------



## MRC & Co (4 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Its still coming up tomorrow isn't.




Depends where you live


----------



## Sean K (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Breaking 5200/50 ish support was important I think. 

Lower support of the churning in early to mid 06 is a real possibility. 4800 ish. 

Although, that H&S looks ugly.


----------



## wavepicker (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like markets setting up for some fireworks this evening with US futures and overseas bourses down sharply as I type. Bernanke speaking this evening so would not be surprised to see similar if not greater volatility compared to last night. Not to mention jobless claims and consumer sentiment numbers due out later in the week.


Target for this leg of the leg of the bear campaign is approx 4680 pts. Whether we capitulate down to that low now or rally first and then move down toward that number is anyones guess.


----------



## Whiskers (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think we are more severely impacted by the oil price this time than the sub prime credit crunch. This time the ball is firmly in the US hands and I reckon they will be compelled to take more extraudinary steps before our market can turn around.

Extract from the Immement and severe market correction post:

World production @ 90m bpd x $140 = a $12.6trillion industry.

With a 70% speculator factor and 100:1 leverage, that's a $12.6t industry controlled by an investment of $88billion.

That's an industry about the size of the US GDP controlled by speculative interests.

On the current economic facts with oil at current levels capitulation of many economies seems inevitable... unless the US acts quickly... which I suspect they will.


----------



## wayneL (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> With a 70% speculator factor and 100:1 leverage, that's a $12.6t industry controlled by an investment of $88billion.



There is no 100:1 leverage in the oil market, it is closer to 10:1

Also any lunatic, whether individual or institution, that is fully leveraged up on the available margin, WILL blow up.

Your sums are just not how it works at all.


----------



## nizar (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> There is no 100:1 leverage in the oil market, it is closer to 10:1




Hi Wayne,

Is this the maximum available leverage in every futures contract?
Or is it different for every market?

Just curious.

Thanks.


----------



## caribean (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> On the current economic facts with oil at current levels capitulation of many economies seems inevitable... unless the US acts quickly... which I suspect they will.




Ummm, just a question...which part of the "US" is going to be the part that's
going to save us, by bringing the cost of oil down????
Multi choice:
1, the US oil lobby
2,the US govinmint
3,the US people
4,all of the above


----------



## wayneL (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Hi Wayne,
> 
> Is this the maximum available leverage in every futures contract?
> Or is it different for every market?
> ...




It is different for each market and can be different for the same market at different times.

It's calculated on volatility by a formula known as SPAN.


----------



## prana (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> On the current economic facts with oil at current levels capitulation of many economies seems inevitable... unless the US acts quickly... which I suspect they will.




What? You mean Helicopter Ben to print more money and ignore inflation further? I think Bernanke and his printing convoy has created enough  inflationary pressures for everyone else, please Ben. Let Ron Paul take the drivers seat.


----------



## dhukka (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I think we are more severely impacted by the oil price this time than the sub prime credit crunch. This time the ball is firmly in the US hands and I reckon they will be compelled to take more extraudinary steps before our market can turn around.
> 
> Extract from the Immement and severe market correction post:
> 
> ...




This just keeps getting better. Not only does he not have a clue how the oil futures market works, he is now tyring to explain away all his wrong calls by blaming it on oil. The market would not have put in new lows if it wasn't for oil. The US recession that has already arrived will be the fault of oil, not the effect of the biggest credit bubble in 75 years or possibly ever. Carry on Whiskers, this is amusing.


----------



## Whiskers (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> There is no 100:1 leverage in the oil market, it is closer to 10:1




Do you want a bet on that? 

I've seen leverage up to 100:1 offered. How much do ya wanna put on the table? 



> Also any lunatic, whether individual or institution, that is fully leveraged up on the available margin, WILL blow up.




Again to paraphrase from another post:



> The first point is that most of the anti speculator arguments are based on the assumption, I think incorrectly, that the surplus oil is being stored somewhere.
> 
> A specific point I made in an earlier post is what if some of the oil producers are double dipping, buying contracts to deliver their own oil and then not have to deliver it (to themselves), but help drive up the price for the next round.
> 
> ...






prana said:


> What? You mean Helicopter Ben to print more money and ignore inflation further? I think Bernanke and his printing convoy has created enough  inflationary pressures for everyone else, please Ben. Let Ron Paul take the drivers seat.




Nooo... by passing tighter regulations so that it can at least be seen who is trading the contracts and cut out any artifical market manipulation.

Dkukka oh dhukka, if you jumped across the road into traffic as quickly as you jump to conclusions and onto anyone that you detest, then it's no wonder you can't see anything but gloom and doom. 

The point I'm making is that I think the US congress at least is seeing another spectatular catostrophe in the making because of a severe lack of oversight, accountability and transparency in another sector of markets under it's control... ie the oil market, and are desirious to get it fixed (better regulated) before it blows up in their faces like the property and financial sectors.


----------



## prana (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> another spectatular catostrophe in the making because of a severe lack of oversight, accountability and transparency in another sector of markets under it's control... ie the oil market, and are desirious to get it fixed (better regulated) before it blows up in their faces like the property and financial sectors.



Ummm the President Ben Mugambe, oops I mean, The US Federal Reserve IS the oversight, the one who left the printing machine on overnight without parental guidance, the same one who allowed excessive consumption, also the same ones  that left rates at 1% for way too long, might I add, the same one who ignored inflation until some 2 months ago before sounding hawkish about rates.  ...

I think I quit from this discussion, this doesn't appear to be a productive direction.


----------



## wayneL (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Do you want a bet on that?
> 
> I've seen leverage up to 100:1 offered. How much do ya wanna put on the table?



Not in the major, market moving exchanges you won't. Maybe some pissant CFD provider might. But I don't think hedge funds would be using CMC or whoever LOL.

In any case, any muppet actually using that much leverage deserves to blow up, and they will. The daily range in Oil is more than that these days.


----------



## Temjin (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Do you want a bet on that?
> 
> I've seen leverage up to 100:1 offered. How much do ya wanna put on the table?




So you are willing to bet that EVERY SINGLE traded contracts out there are leveraged to 100:1? That's a big bet there.  Anyone who does real hedging through the oil market would immediately debunk your theory because they don't play on leverage at all. Every positions they put in are backed up by real physical oils. 

Like WayneL was saying, you only seem to think every players out there are using 100:1 CFD contracts. But they only account for an insignificant portion of the volume traded out there. 



Whiskers said:


> The point I'm making is that I think the US congress at least is seeing another spectatular catostrophe in the making because of a severe lack of oversight, accountability and transparency in another sector of markets under it's control... ie the oil market, and are desirious to get it fixed (better regulated) before it blows up in their faces like the property and financial sectors.




You are definitely quick to blame the US regulators on world oil speculations. They do not have the ability to control every single future markets out there, beside their own anyway. This is why I am astonished at their stupid attempts to "regulate" the future markets by limiting "long positions" and making them to report/identify themselves if they have placed over a certain number of long positions. Sure they can do that in their own future exchanges, but the business will simply goes elsewhere in other country's exchanges where they have no legislation power over it. Stupid I tell you.

The rise in oil prices are driven by both speculations and real fundamental factors anyway.


----------



## dhukka (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Dkukka oh dhukka, if you jumped across the road into traffic as quickly as you jump to conclusions and onto anyone that you detest, then it's no wonder you can't see anything but gloom and doom.





Again overestimating your importance. Detest is such a strong word, the most I can muster is mild contempt with a tinge of pity (the pity usually last about half a second and then vanishes). 

The straw man arguments continue. I see plenty to be optimistic about with each passing day that the stockmarket (that you continually incorrectly called higher) continues to make new lows. Gloom is building and with it opportunity. 

It is you that cannot see past your **** tastes like sugar outlook of the world and that is why you continue to be wrong.


----------



## Whiskers (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prana said:


> Ummm the President Ben Mugambe, oops I mean, The US Federal Reserve IS the oversight, the one who left the printing machine on overnight without parental guidance, the same one who allowed excessive consumption, also the same ones  that left rates at 1% for way too long, might I add, the same one who ignored inflation until some 2 months ago before sounding hawkish about rates.  ...
> 
> I think I quit from this discussion, this doesn't appear to be a productive direction.




The Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC is the authority in the US.

They have been given instructions to monitor trading on a daily basis as opposed to weekly previously and require the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange to adopt position limits used in the U.S. They have also been told to gather more data on unregulated trading, including over-the-counter swaps.

And more regulation is currently in the congress. 

It seems pretty obvious to me that the more regulated an industry becomes the less volatile it is and the less likely to attract speculative investors and consequently prices become more stable.


----------



## wayneL (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Not in the major, market moving exchanges you won't. Maybe some pissant CFD provider might. But I don't think hedge funds would be using CMC or whoever LOL.
> 
> In any case, any muppet actually using that much leverage deserves to blow up, and they will. The daily range in Oil is more than that these days.




Whiskers,

Let me give you an idea.

The high so far today on the NYMEX Q contract is $142.44 with the low so far being $138.68. 

That is a range $3.76 - Nothing out of the ordinary
= 2.7%

Just to cover that range so far today, without any pad, would need a leverage ratio of *37:1*, and would entail an immediate margin call.

100:1 on oil is just plain ****ing stupid... absolutely idiotic... suicide.

As I type this, oil is breaking below the above-mentioned low, making the figures even bigger.
*
No institution is using leverage of 100:1 on oil!!!*


----------



## wayneL (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

FYI

Nymex oil margins:


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Do you want a bet on that?
> 
> I've seen leverage up to 100:1 offered. How much do ya wanna put on the table?




As I pointed out to you a week ago and Wayne has again shown margin has nothing to do with the equation. Not for anyone who trades for a living. Not the the funds, not to the big swinging dicks that move the volume.

That 1% margin you are quoting is rubbish. That is for retail Market Maker model Not FUTURES. Where the Market maker takes the other side of **** traders and then waits till they blow up. And no the orders never make it to the real market as hedges either. They don't last long enough to bother hedging. Why hedge against someone playing Russian Roulette


----------



## Whiskers (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> So you are willing to bet that EVERY SINGLE traded contracts out there are leveraged to 100:1? That's a big bet there.






*Why are people focusing on the wrong things.*

It's pretty clear that none of you are of a 'legalistic' mind. 

No, no , noooo Temjin, Wayne and TH. I said I've seen *up to *100:1 leverage offered. 

*The MAIN point is firstly that the speculative part of the oil market is huge about equal to the US GDP *and secondly that there is POTENTIAL there for small amounts of money to control and manipulate a big chunk of a (rising) market.

Struth, for the sake of some maths 100:1 was a nominal number as part of the worst case scenerio. 



> You are definitely quick to blame the US regulators on world oil speculations.




Well I suppose you could call it blame, they seem to be the culprit of the moment, but as I've often pointed out I take an observational position looking for the sentiment and action that is driving the market.

Repeat, the main point... who would feel comfortable with speculative interests controlling 70% of a 12 to 13 TRILLION DOLLAR industry, a vital industry at that?

Stupid or otherwise I'm not judging because I can't change it... just trying to pre-empt the mob and the market.

*Wayne* the main question being asked is can you or anyone categorically, I mean categorically say there is no market manipulation happening?

For example if an oil producer or related entity was buying back their own contracts to force up the price for refiners.



Trembling Hand said:


> As I pointed out to you a week ago and Wayne has again shown margin has nothing to do with the equation.






Nothing at all!

Well if higher margins were required in the largest commodity market in the world it would take more money to get the same size position for a start.

And isn't it a fact as I mentioned last post?



> It seems pretty obvious to me that the more regulated an industry becomes the less volatile it is and the less likely to attract speculative investors and consequently prices become more stable.




Isn't leverage and the 'speculatice' portion of the market the core issue of what all this oil speculation business and legislation is about?

Again repeating myself, but rightly or wrongly, it doesn't affect me, but given the world wide outrage about the price of oil and the political will to minimise the adverse effects on the economy and that tighter regulation and accountability is happening as well as higher margins and limits on the number of contracts held... are you seriously trying to tell me that oil won't become less attractive to speculators and fall in price as they leave the market?

PS: Getting a little off topic, but just clarifiny the original point about the potentional impact of oil market regulations on the economy and stock market.


----------



## Trembling Hand (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Nothing at all!
> 
> Well if higher margins were required in the largest commodity market in the world it would take more money to get the same size position for a start.
> 
> ...




Whiskers god help you if you ever decide to trade leverage. Let me spell it out very clearly. Traders do not trade on minimum margin. Read it again PLEASE. Traders do not trade on minimum margin. and AGAIN Traders do not trade on minimum margin.

The only ones that look at minimum margin as to how many contracts they can buy are IDIOTS. For god sake think about it. 

But that aside you still are obviously lacking a fundamental understanding of how futures function. And why they are the BEST tool capitalism has at pricing a commodity. But this is way off topic.


----------



## davo8 (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prana said:


> Now my question, Australia as I know it (and correct me if I am wrong here) consists mainly of 2 massive industries, Commodities (metals and energy) & Financials. Now the financials have retreated to levels close to early 05's (its unfortunate that the XFJ doesnt go quite back far enough).
> So, let me see, if the financials index has retraced that far back, if the XJO is to retrace back to support lines set by long term charts, then, either the financials have to suffer further (very very) serious losses , or the miners are going to get into serious retracement - ie the BHP, RIO, WPLs. Any chartists want to comment on this?




The ASX is more than that: you have to include property, manufacturing and all the consumer stuff at least. So far the miners pull us up and the financials slap us down. Now that mortgages are hard to come by (or afford), construction has tanked and that takes with it lots of consumer stuff.

You can expect to see widespread losses in all sectors, especially property and consumer discretionary with possibly near recession conditions. If China gets sick after the Olympics, things could get quite sticky.

I've been predicting 4800 for months, but it could go even lower. Forget the charts -- they'll only tell you after it's all over.


----------



## davo8 (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> PS: Getting a little off topic, but just clarifiny the original point about the potentional impact of oil market regulations on the economy and stock market.




My view after extensive reading is that speculation is not the dominant influence on the price of oil, and that the proposed regulations will have little or no impact.

Regardless, this is wrong place to look. The main driver for the current down leg in the USA (and here) is still the credit crunch, phase 2. There is massive wealth destruction going on and so far oil is just a nasty added problem.

I said months ago and I say again now: the US economy is looking over a cliff. Do not expect bottom this year -- first we need a few more bank failures. IndyMac, WaMu, Wachovia, Lehrman, etc.

The ASX is in a bear market and the really bad news is only just starting. The construction industry is currently falling apart, property values are dropping and banks are struggling. Consumer discretionary is weak and resources are vulnerable to post-Olympics China. 4800? 4500? Who knows?

I know you're a permabull, but this really isn't the right time yet.


----------



## wayneL (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers,

The point you are missing is that for speculators to be able to actually "control" the market, requires them to take physical delivery. Otherwise the arbitrageurs will simply pull it back into line with the price of physical.

The spot futures price only tracks the physical price, plus cost of carry, plus or less other minor factors. It wouldn't matter if speculators are 90% of the futures markets, unless they take physical delivery, they cannot manipulate price, beyond minor swings.

The western muppet, brainless clueless pollies screaming for lower oil prices may as well piss into the wind.

If prices come down, it will be due to other factors, not related to speculation.


----------



## Whiskers (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Whiskers god help you if you ever decide to trade leverage. Let me spell it out very clearly. Traders do not trade on minimum margin. Read it again PLEASE. Traders do not trade on minimum margin. and AGAIN Traders do not trade on minimum margin.
> 
> The only ones that look at minimum margin as to how many contracts they can buy are IDIOTS. For god sake think about it.





 
*Why are people focusing on the wrong things.*

For heavens sake TH where did I ever use the word minimium in the context that traders only pay the minimium? 

I didn't. I actually agree with what you and Wayne say about trading on the minimium margin. It's flirting with disaster. 

*The point is that if margins are raised then all other things being equal speculators won't be able to buy the same amount of contracts.* 



> But that aside you still are obviously lacking a fundamental understanding of how futures function. And why they are the BEST tool capitalism has at pricing a commodity. But this is way off topic.




On the contrary, I have a perfectly good knowledge of futures and how they can potentially be abused in this specific case, but you guys are obsessed with trying to relate everything to the 'conventional' market.

Again I repeat, I'm not passing judgement on the system because it's a waste of time because I can't change it. You can get as emotional as you like about changing the system, but don't take it out on me... I'm just the messenger.

I'm simply pointing out that in the eyes of *Americans who consume more than twice the oil of China, the second biggest consumer,* that they are seeing oil as a vital resource and I'm betting they will do as much as they can to keep the price of oil as low as possible.

REPEAT. The oil industry is the worlds largest commodity market.. it's huge, $12 to 13 trillion, the US is by far the worlds largest consumer of oil... it is hurting them... they feel speculators should not control such a large stake and will do what it takes to relieve that pain.


----------



## Whiskers (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Whiskers,
> 
> The point you are missing is that for speculators to be able to actually "control" the market, requires them to take physical delivery. Otherwise the arbitrageurs will simply pull it back into line with the price of physical.
> 
> The spot futures price only tracks the physical price, plus cost of carry, plus or less other minor factors. It wouldn't matter if speculators are 90% of the futures markets, unless they take physical delivery, they cannot manipulate price, beyond minor swings.





Wow didn't this topic stir up a hornets nest. 

Wayne, thats the original point of the example I quoted earlier (maybe on the other thread). Man have we been side tracked since then.

Can you categorically say that for example, oil producers haven't been bidding on and buying back some of their own contracts 'under the counter' so to speak, to force up the bids of refiners? 



> If prices come down, it will be due to other factors, not related to speculation.




There are a lot of people in congress in particular that would dissagree with that.

I personally think it will depend on how tight the US regulates down the oil market.

Hi *davo8*.

No I'm actually not a perma bull, just always looking for a bullin oppertunity ...but I reckon the US reckons they can see a way to 'fix' the oil price hike by september or so.


----------



## MRC & Co (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> Like WayneL was saying, you only seem to think every players out there are using 100:1 CFD contracts. But they only account for an insignificant portion of the volume traded out there.




Aren't CFDs purely a synthetic market, so they only mirror the underlying, therefore, they actually don't account for any of the volume traded..........


----------



## wayneL (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

They may, but if the producers did that, they would be reported in the COT as "commercials" and not as "speculators".

So what you are postulating, is not manipulation by speculators AT ALL, but manipulation by "commercials".

This is an insurmountable hurdle to your hypothesis that "speculators" are to blame for high oil prices. They are not.


----------



## wayneL (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Wayne, thats the original point of the example I quoted earlier (maybe on the other thread). Man have we been side tracked since then.
> 
> Can you categorically say that for example, oil producers haven't been bidding on and buying back some of their own contracts 'under the counter' so to speak, to force up the bids of refiners?



They may, but if the producers did that, they would be reported in the COT as "commercials" and not as "speculators".

So what you are postulating, is not manipulation by speculators AT ALL, but manipulation by "commercials".

This is an insurmountable hurdle to your hypothesis that "speculators" are to blame for high oil prices. They are not.




> There are a lot of people in congress in particular that would dissagree with that.
> 
> I personally think it will depend on how tight the US regulates down the oil market.



You think congressmen know anything? Surely you jest!

Anyway, half of congress are oil-men and have no interest in lower prices.

I would be surprised if there was any effective regulation beyond a bit of window dressing.


----------



## caribean (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If you like looking at charts (history), then take a look back at what happened in the 70's...the story is not that dissimilar,if you do look at what happened in the 70's, then please scratch bellow the obvious to find out who realy made money out of that situation.
Fundamentaly, you've got Iraq in a mess and possibly Iran being attacked, that translates to instability in the hubb of the oil producing region in the world.
Do you realy think that a lot of the US pollies (oil lobby)care about their own people or the rest of the world ?
We're running out of oil (or so they say), perfect reason to allow drilling in all
the regions they were not allowed to drill into previously, like Alaska?
Apologies if all this has been covered previously, i have not read all of the thread.


----------



## Temjin (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Geez, aren't we all getting off topic a little?  

Whisker, here is something that might interest you. Tell us what you think. I don't pretend to know everything about the future markets. 

http://www.investmentrarities.com/06-10-08.html


> The unprecedented price volatility in crude oil, grain and other commodities, has focused our attention and galvanized a collective opinion. "Too much speculation" is the cry of the day. There appears to be much truth in that statement, since few can point to supply and demand factors that account for the shocking price moves. But maybe we are not looking closely enough at the speculation angle.
> 
> The most visible culprit for the excessive speculation is said to be the index funds. These are huge institutional funds that hold significant long positions in many commodity futures markets (but not in COMEX gold or silver futures). I have previously written about index funds. This is an important topic, although I have been clear to state that I have no vested interest in whether they continue to hold their big long positions or not.
> 
> ...




And to be back on the topic, it looks like the 5050 is holding. With energy start going through a corrective phase, we might see a new uptrend again, for a short time anyway.


----------



## dhukka (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> *Why are people focusing on the wrong things.*
> 
> It's pretty clear that none of you are of a 'legalistic' mind.
> 
> ...




Is there a smiley for back-pedaling? In your initial post there was no mention that your figures were for a worse case scenario. The fact is, you can't be sure if the leverage is 10:1 or 100:1. To keep throwing out figures of $88 billion controlling an oil market the size of US GDP is just pure speculation (pardon the pun).  The 70% speculative interest is also not a given. In short you are using very rubbery figures to come to your conclusion.


----------



## Whiskers (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There's a video interview here, http://money.cnn.com/ called *Loose rules govern commodities* which highlights the current issues in the oil market.

I'll get back to discuss the implications to the Aus market later when I have more time.


----------



## Trembling Hand (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers two things,
1. If you want to discuss this further why don't you start another thread rather than recking this good one. 

2. I cannot believe that that is what you are using to back up your argument. If you want to act on this crap from CNNNNNNNNN knock yourself out. But just goes to show how lost you are in your argument. Why don't you learn how the futures markets work first. Before long you will be citing investment advice from your local football club newsletter.


----------



## wayneL (9 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Before long you will be citing investment advice from your local football club newsletter.





It would probably be better than that offered by CNNNNNNNNNNNNN.


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Can some tell us when Commsuc and EasyTrade crashes. Would have to be getting close to to long on retail overload system trade.


----------



## IFocus (10 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OK my turn to throw darts at Whiskers

Buffet the other day said he didn't believe the current oil price run up was because of speculators........... I believe him


----------



## IFocus (10 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Can some tell us when Commsuc and EasyTrade crashes. Would have to be getting close to to long on retail overload system trade.




LOL you could be onto some thing there


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The rest of Asia is giving a big Yawn to the US "Bear Market Lows".

Korea and Japa's about to turn Kermit.


----------



## Whiskers (10 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> OK my turn to throw darts at Whiskers
> 
> Buffet the other day said he didn't believe the current oil price run up was because of speculators........... I believe him



:couch... missed too.


----------



## wavepicker (10 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just a quick post of my musings for the XAO.

The monthly EW chart wave count I have been working with since late last year and since then have maintained a target of 4600-4700 for this first leg (green wave a ) of red wave 4.  This is the 0.382 fibonacci retrace from the low of 1987 to the high of 2008 red wave 3. Wave 4's usually find support at approx 0.50 retrace of wave 3's. Another common support level is the "span of previous 4th wave of one less degree" This is pink wave 4 within red wave 3 and also lines up with the 0.382 retrace level.

The cycles analysis chart below that price has fluctuated within the bounds of the 48 month cycle. (ths chart is using data from last month and not current). The long term lows have traditionally found support at the second band below the nominal level. The second band below for this current leg down coincides with 4700 and the loweely with the last band 4200. This gels nicely with the EW fibonacci red wave 4 target for green wave a.

The 3 cycles I have extraced are the 4 year, 2 year, and 1 year cycle. The 1 and 2 year cycles have almost bottomed but the 4 year cycle still has a fair ways to go and should make up the bulk of the component when the low at 4600-4700 happens but will monitor closely in case it looks like falling further.

Good trading to all

Wavepicker


----------



## Whiskers (10 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



caribean said:


> If you like looking at charts (history), then take a look back at what happened in the 70's...the story is not that dissimilar,if you do look at what happened in the 70's, then please scratch bellow the obvious to find out who realy made money out of that situation.
> Fundamentaly, you've got Iraq in a mess and possibly Iran being attacked, that translates to instability in the hubb of the oil producing region in the world.




Yes, but also *a lot of things are different this time*, not the least of which is substantial changes in the dynamics of the markets and the tools used and the regulations that haven't changed much in half a decade.



> Do you realy think that a lot of the US pollies (oil lobby)care about their own people or the rest of the world ?




While they are in the run-up to their elections they certainly care about the perception of their constituents whose main concern is oil prices.



> We're running out of oil (or so they say), perfect reason to allow drilling in all
> the regions they were not allowed to drill into previously, like Alaska?




Right or wrong, it's the perception that matters and consequently a lot of resources are being thrown into alternative fuels and energy and opening up additional energy resources. If OPEC is in fact not running out of oil soon they face substantial demand destruction and share of world market occuring over the next couple of years... and I don't think they would like that.



wayneL said:


> They may, but if the producers did that, they would be reported in the COT as "commercials" and not as "speculators".
> 
> So what you are postulating, is not manipulation by speculators AT ALL, but manipulation by "commercials".
> 
> This is an insurmountable hurdle to your hypothesis that "speculators" are to blame for high oil prices. They are not.




Ok, you may have got me on a technicallity on the double meaning of speculator.

But the point is the overwhelming perception of people enpowered to change the dynamics of the oil industry is that they just don't have enough information to know exactly who is doing what... Hence their urgency to find out whether the market place is being manipulated and in any case close loop holes anyway.



Temjin said:


> Whisker, here is something that might interest you. Tell us what you think. I don't pretend to know everything about the future markets.
> 
> http://www.investmentrarities.com/06-10-08.html




Good article Temjin. One of many out there.

Shorts may be turning long, but the rather obvious example I mentioned earlier potentially could cause that to happen, and there may well be other untoward things happening. 

That author is being pretty presumptious because *he does not know what he cannot know, because the current system apparently doesn not provide enough information about who is doing what*, especially in the satelite markets that feed into the US.



Trembling Hand said:


> Whiskers two things,
> 
> 2. I cannot believe that that is what you are using to back up your argument. If you want to act on this crap from CNNNNNNNNN knock yourself out. But just goes to show how lost you are in your argument. Why don't you learn how the futures markets work first. Before long you will be citing investment advice from your local football club newsletter.




Ok TH, I'll give you the same scaulding I gave WayneL on another thread for the same thing.

You obviously detest this particular news service, but the message is the same all over the US and the world. It's important to get over your emotional attachments and concentrate on the content and context. 

The content of that video is foremost on peoples minds in the US and coming into election season it's also foremost on political minds of all persuasions trying desperately to appease their constituents well before the November elections. Hence the probable biggest overhaul of the oil market in half a century by November on top of the similar currently engaging regulatory shake-up of Wall st, the financial sector and mortgage sector in half a century.

It's perception that matters most and 'fixing' the oil price problem is the problem foremost on most US minds at the moment. So whoever can make a dent in the oil price by November is going to have a handsome advantage.

If nothing changes our resource boom and economy will suffer exponentiolly more than most if nothing changes. 

*The bottom line for the Aus market *... I think the likely scenerio is substantial change probably in half a century in the regulation of the oil markets on top of the biggest overhaul in the same time of Wall st, the financial and mortgage sectors will result in a stronger USD and lower oil having an exponentially better effect for the Aus economy in terms of continuing strong demand for our resources and lower production costs.

Ok, end of class. TH and WayneL, stay behind and write out 100 times ' I promise to pay attention and not to be silly buggers in class'. :

Oh, I nearly forgot... dhukka, :blbl:


----------



## wayneL (10 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Yes, but also *a lot of things are different this time*,



I stopped reading right here.


----------



## caribean (11 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No, unfortunately i think nothing has changed, if anything it's worst....
Don't take this as an attack to your views, Whiskers.
Good luck with your trading.


----------



## theasxgorilla (11 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Just a quick post of my musings for the XAO.
> 
> Good trading to all
> 
> Wavepicker




Thanks for the analysis WP...there seems to be, what's that word, _confluence_ of measurements around the 4600-4700 region.  That fits somewhat with my gut feel which suggests to me that the XAO can't fall too much further, whilst it still feels like it's not done yet.  How that for some _precise_ licked-finger-in-the-wind analysis


----------



## wavepicker (11 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks ASX, this seems to be a very clean long term impulse in the XAO. In so far as this bear market goes, there are a few points that are important. In this wave count, red wave 2 was a "sharp" crash/correction (87 crash) . The most likely pattern of trend for this market in the coming years as an EW guideline would be a sideways market(Law of Alternation). Not too disimilar to the DJIA in the 1970's after it had finsished a very powerfull 3rd wave from the depression lows till 1966. That bear (sideways) market lasted from 1966-1976.
I think it would be fair to say that if we had a similar scenario for the XAO, we shoud expect a choppy sideways affair lasting approx 4 years plus or minus 6 months. As per the 4 year cycle in the chart.( the average 4 year cycle fluctiations in that chart range from 3.5 to 4.5 years).

I think it's also important to note that when the 4 year cycle bottoms, it does not necessarily mean the bottom of the bear market. The lowest point could actually come in during this current leg down, but the subsequent sideways trend (if that's what we get) should end in approx 3 years time and most likely coincide with the bottom of the 4 year cycle.

I am looking for this current leg down to finish by November.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (12 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Need to change the DJIA to the YOYO index. 

250 down, and now it's up. 



edit: and now 60 down.

LOL


----------



## CamKawa (12 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> In the last post I mentioned that November might see a termination to this current leg down, but after a closer look it maybe earlier than that. Possibly as early as late July/early Aug, but current wave count does not look completed at this stage
> 
> Cheers



The market is looking a bit oversold at the moment and may start to rally this week, but putting wave counts to one side, I really can't see any rally getting too far off the ground until US house prices start to form a base and I’ll be surprised if that happens in next a 4-6 weeks. I’d go back to your bottom forming in November theory.


----------



## Nick Radge (12 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think a significant question that needs to be asked, is why, when Australia has great exposure to commodities and China, are we one of the worst performing markets globally. The reason is that we have the 4th largest current account deficit in the developed world. That's not going away anytime soon nor is wage inflation. As such the RBA will continue to tighten rates placing more pressure on households outside of petrol and food costs.


----------



## wavepicker (12 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> The market is looking a bit oversold at the moment and may start to rally this week, but putting wave counts to one side, I really can't see any rally getting too far off the ground until US house prices start to form a base and I’ll be surprised if that happens in next a 4-6 weeks. I’d go back to your bottom forming in November theory.




It could do OR a wash out dive soon, perhaps intraday - with huge volume and rotation of positions -  If this washout were to happen, it would suggest a more lasting bottom. Even so there will be retests and bottom building for quite a while

Cheers


----------



## dhukka (12 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> I think a significant question that needs to be asked, is why, when Australia has great exposure to commodities and China, are we one of the worst performing markets globally. The reason is that we have the 4th largest current account deficit in the developed world. That's not going away anytime soon nor is wage inflation. As such the RBA will continue to tighten rates placing more pressure on households outside of petrol and food costs.




Nick, 

Wage inflation in Australia has been tame so far. The Aussie economy is slowing clear signs of slowing, e.g in terms of credit growth. PSI, PMI. No doubt this month's 2nd quarter inflation figure wil be nasty but it's difficult to envision more than 1 more rate rise from the RBA.  The SFE futures implied yield curve has almost flattened. The NAB has penciled in a *6%* cash rate for the end of 2009. How can the RBA contine to raise rates without the risk of throwing the economy into recession? Or are they that firghtened by inflation they don't care?

How about this for an overly simplistic view of why we have one of the worst performing stockmarkets. The strong AUD. The XAO has done worse than the FTSE100 and the S&P500 in percentage terms from peak to trough. However measured in AUD the XAO has outperformed the FTSE and is only 2% worse than the S&P500.


----------



## theasxgorilla (12 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Wage inflation in Australia has been tame so far.




Are you for real?  When I hear the numbers my friends and ex-colleagues are getting back in Aust I realise I'm better off going back there than I am to London.  They didn't all magically become 50% more skilled either.


----------



## theasxgorilla (12 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> I think a significant question that needs to be asked, is why, when Australia has great exposure to commodities and China, are we one of the worst performing markets globally. The reason is that we have the 4th largest current account deficit in the developed world. That's not going away anytime soon nor is wage inflation. As such the RBA will continue to tighten rates placing more pressure on households outside of petrol and food costs.




Yeah, I must admit, I've seen rabbits pulled from empty hats, but I can't see such a magical bright future for the Aust economy/markets just now.  Even if things do kick into gear again I expect that internally people are going to struggle...the number of millionaires will still increase, but the higher wages and cap gains will be eaten by higher mortgage and non-discretionary spending costs...externally the high AUD and high relative wages will mean that Aussies could stand to be become the next Irish or Norwegians going on O/S holidays or buying up O/S property for cents in the dollar...but we'll become known as an expensive place to live/holiday.


----------



## theasxgorilla (12 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Muschu said:


> b] Put the majority of their portfolio into stocks with high dividends and live off the dividends?




Nick has some criteria for determining what constitutes a good stock and a good time to buy such a stock for this kind of strategy.  With where the market is today I expect that a few of these might now be hanging low enough to pick.

This is his IP btw, so we're can't reasonably expect him to disclose it here, but it's some food thought anyhow.


----------



## davo8 (12 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> I think a significant question that needs to be asked, is why, when Australia has great exposure to commodities and China, are we one of the worst performing markets globally. The reason is that we have the 4th largest current account deficit in the developed world. That's not going away anytime soon nor is wage inflation. As such the RBA will continue to tighten rates placing more pressure on households outside of petrol and food costs.




Not really. There is no linkage between the CAD and the market.

The reason is that the ASX has a disproportionately large finance sector, it was the finance sector that was responsible for the excess gains we all enjoyed over the last 3 years or so, and it was the finance sector that crashed. Just check the XFJ & XPJ to see what I mean.

We have built a thriving economy and rich lifestyle on debt, and when the debt unwinds we all get to pay for it. The CAD is a symptom, but the net foreign debt is what will trigger a crash sooner or later.


----------



## Muschu (12 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Nick has some criteria for determining what constitutes a good stock and a good time to buy such a stock for this kind of strategy.  With where the market is today I expect that a few of these might now be hanging low enough to pick.
> 
> This is his IP btw, so we're can't reasonably expect him to disclose it here, but it's some food thought anyhow.




Thanks ASX - and I totally respect Nick's position.  Timing is an issue I am attempting to address.

I really appreciate your response.

Best wishes

Rick


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Are you for real?  When I hear the numbers my friends and ex-colleagues are getting back in Aust I realise I'm better off going back there than I am to London.  They didn't all magically become 50% more skilled either.




I`ll second that.Since 2003 I have worked for up to 150% more per hour than I was back then.I felt guilty at the beginning because I didn`t think the rates were in line with the normal work skills required.


----------



## theasxgorilla (12 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> We have built a thriving economy and rich lifestyle on debt, and when the debt unwinds we all get to pay for it. The CAD is a symptom, but the net foreign debt is what will trigger a crash sooner or later.




Debt can also be inflated away.  And while it is asset prices can keep going up.  No crash, but everyone still becomes progressively worse off.


----------



## kotim (12 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It appears clear to me that the ASX bank stocks are currently in wave 5 declines.  As we know the All ords are effectively controlled by the direction of the banks.  So if we are in fact in wave 5 on the downside at the moment then we can’t be too far away from bottoms, which will hold at the very least for a number of months whilst we have some sort of ABC up.  Elliot wave can be prone to over analysis when the patterns are not clear.  However those bank patterns look obvious to me., for whatever its worth.


----------



## dhukka (13 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Are you for real?  When I hear the numbers my friends and ex-colleagues are getting back in Aust I realise I'm better off going back there than I am to London.  They didn't all magically become 50% more skilled either.




Absolutely for real. I'm sure you can find loads of people who have seen their wages increase rapidly but the fact is wage nflation has not gotten out of hand on a country-wide basis. This from the RBA meeting minutes from the June 3rd meeting:



> Members took careful note that, despite the sustained strength of the labour market, aggregate wages growth had remained contained, according to the latest data. The wage price index increased by 0.9 per cent in the March quarter, keeping year-ended growth steady at just over 4 per cent.


----------



## kotim (13 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Other than individual pockets real wage growth goes backwards.  Most people do not take into consideration taxation.  When you buy something in  the market place your paying the price that is inclusive of tax.  However when you get a pay rise most people do not get a wage rise that takes into consideration the tax that is taken away.

Most people will pay somewhere along the 30-40% tax .  Lets say one third for the purpose of this and understand that inflation is now running at over 4%.  So in other words to actually get 4% wages growth that is equal to inflation one has to get 4% plus the tax that they would pay, so we are saying that to end up with 4% you need to get 6%.

Now how many people are going to get a pay rise of 6% for the last year gone by and the coming years/s whilst inflation is around 4%.


----------



## davo8 (13 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> It appears clear to me that the ASX bank stocks are currently in wave 5 declines.  As we know the All ords are effectively controlled by the direction of the banks.  So if we are in fact in wave 5 on the downside at the moment then we can’t be too far away from bottoms, which will hold at the very least for a number of months whilst we have some sort of ABC up.




I don't believe in EW, but on fundamental grounds I agree, the bottom for banks could be near. That depends on how bad the current downturn in housing gets. If it's similar to UK/Europe, we're in serious trouble too.

If you think the ASX is dominated by banks, it's fair to say you've only studied the past 15 years or so. Banks are historically boring and low growth, and I am convinced they will be so again. Those waiting for banks will be standing on the platform after the train has left.


----------



## theasxgorilla (14 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Absolutely for real. I'm sure you can find loads of people who have seen their wages increase rapidly but the fact is wage nflation has not gotten out of hand on a country-wide basis. This from the RBA meeting minutes from the June 3rd meeting:




Then unfortunately we have the circumstance of the rich getting richer and in relative terms the poor getting poorer.  Howard's policies were always going to lead to this and Rudd won't stay elected by straying to far from it either.


----------



## korrupt_1 (14 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

2 days of very strong reversal candles.... can't help but feel that the bottom of this leg down was formed...

next question is... *if* this (was) the bottom... how high will the next leg up go?


.


----------



## Sean K (14 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> 2 days of very strong reversal candles.... can't help but feel that the bottom of this leg down was formed...
> 
> next question is... *if* this (was) the bottom... how high will the next leg up go?
> 
> ...



So far yes, and well spotted. If the Fed does another round of money printing and loans it out at 0% ish then maybe a leg up for a bit. 

Just compounding longer term problems perhaps, unless they start letting some people be accountable for their actions.


----------



## Whiskers (14 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> 2 days of very strong reversal candles.... can't help but feel that the bottom of this leg down was formed...
> 
> next question is... *if* this (was) the bottom... how high will the next leg up go?
> 
> ...




Gettin close to bottom, I think too.

I firmly believe the oil price is the key. I think it's getting very close to correcting in a big way... this week? 

Adding in a bit of 'L' plate EW, we might have a tad lower to go yet. EW'ers comments?


----------



## wavepicker (14 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Gettin close to bottom, I think too.
> 
> I firmly believe the oil price is the key. I think it's getting very close to correcting in a big way... this week?
> 
> Adding in a bit of 'L' plate EW, we might have a tad lower to go yet. EW'ers comments?





I hope your right but, me thinks it will be perhaps 200-300 points lower and perhaps find a floor for this leg in a few weeks. 

I feel we still need that washout phase to come in


----------



## theasxgorilla (14 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> I hope your right but, me thinks it will be perhaps 200-300 points lower and perhaps find a floor for this leg in a few weeks.
> 
> *I feel we still need that washout phase to come in*




The part where people who have been holding start thinking, "to hell with this _correction_ I'm liquidating!".


----------



## GreatPig (15 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Even with today's push down, it's showing some bullish RSI divergence.

GP


----------



## davo8 (15 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Looks like that 4800 level discussed back in June is in play today...




Which June? 4800 has been on the cards since at least Feb this year.

And since we're obviously not at the bottom, next stop 4200 or so (but I guess another correction is not out of the question).


----------



## explod (15 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Even with today's push down, it's showing some bullish RSI divergence.
> 
> GP




From left to right the chart tells me down.   And the markets across Europe indicate more of the same tomorrow.


----------



## GreatPig (15 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Certainly looking like that divergence mightn't last at this point.

GP


----------



## Boggo (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Looks like that 4800 level discussed back in June is in play today...
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=301493&highlight=4800#post301493
> 
> I'll update another chart tonight but bigger picture still has 4200 as a potential target




I have been watching this come down to the first target, these target levels seemed far fetched then but its hit the min C target nicely today.

Scary stuff !


----------



## Sean K (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Looks like that 4800 level discussed back in June is in play today...
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=301493&highlight=4800#post301493
> 
> I'll update another chart tonight but bigger picture still has 4200 as a potential target.



I've only seen you ever mention 4800 Nick.


----------



## Snakey (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I've only seen you ever mention 4800 Nick.




don't forget Snakey's prediction of 4200 back in January:bekloppt:


----------



## Whiskers (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Gettin close to bottom, I think too.
> 
> *I firmly believe the oil price is the key. I think it's getting very close to correcting in a big way... this week? :*o
> 
> Adding in a bit of 'L' plate EW, we might have a tad lower to go yet. EW'ers comments?




Hey, don't forget little ole me either. 

Ye ole oil is startin to look pretty shakey tonight. Sub 140's been down to about 135 so far.


----------



## Sean K (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How about this bear market action.

The YOYO was down 2% at one point and is now up .3% after oil dropped most in 3 years. And gold follows with a 15 buck tumble in a few moments. 

Entertaining stuff. 

All that after GWB gave one of the most uninspiring press conferences in recent years. And that's saying something. What a goose.


----------



## Whiskers (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeah kennas... will be good to see oil get a bit battering. 

Looks like it might settle around 138 for now, but the weekly chart looks like it's just hanging on.

I reckoned it was gonna make a perfect evening star last week... until those speculators got in and supported it. :

But apart from my FA, I think EW was indicating the end of a multi year wave 5 from $49 anytime soon also. I'm still trying to get some better EW info, but it seems the correction will probably go well below 100 again... then the bulls start snorting again all over the world.


----------



## wavepicker (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

While I am on the topic of EW in other threads, these are my current musings . Since December last year I lave maintained a level of 4600-4700 in my EW charts. See monthly EW chart and Cyce Analysis in this post:-

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=313121&postcount=3747


It's been a challenge trying to map out the smaller subdivisions, pattern of trend and dates, as the market has fallen much faster than I expected. I expected it to hang around the 5000/5500  in a sideways formation for longer before tanking, but that's trading!!

I beleive we are at the tail end of green wave C now. Getting close blue wave 3 termination  of green wave C. But still have whiles to go yet. Some important dates that are appearing ATM are 24th July and 15th Aug. Although I think 24th July as a Fib date might find some support, I think a major low might come in mid August. (See fixed time cycles) chart attached. Interestingly this fixed cycles chart consistantly shows that when 3 cycle points in a row either blue Intermediate term or red medium term complete, then the end of a larger cycle is completed. This was the case at the peak of 2008 and on the 17/3/08 when reactions in the opposite direction started. ATM we are nearing the completion of 2 cycles. It is not a necessity to complete 3, but just intetesting to note. If we need to complete 3 then the rally approaching in Aug mightonly be temporary before one last leg completes.

Some target levels, there is a strong Fibonacci cluster between 4687 and 4691, and that is where I am placing my bets for this leg down for a possible completion. 

This is concurred by the Cycles Analysis chart in the link above. Throughout it's history of the last 25 years, any correction/crash made has found support and std deviations below the Nominal level I have calculated in that chart. The second std deviation on this chart is at 4650-4700. The lowest band( 3std devations) is at 4200, and one cannot rule out a drop to this level albeit being a lower probability based on this chart. Not saying that is the end of th bear, but a rally at least back to the blue line and beyond(which would be substantial) would be a very high probability.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> While I am on the topic of EW in other threads, these are my current musings .



WP, You really need to update us on the gold count too and why is was so wrong. There must be an explanation, and it'd be nice to know for educational purposes. Cheers, kennas


----------



## wavepicker (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> WP, You really need to update us on the gold count too and why is was so wrong. There must be an explanation, and it'd be nice to know for educational purposes. Cheers, kennas




Not sure yet Kennas. Like everyone I do get things wrong. 
The near term swings/analysis has been wrong and  invalidated, but the longer term has not. So if it holds at the previous or below the previous high it is still valid.

With Oil looking like it may have come of the boil and even perhaps be on the verge of ending one of biggest speculative manias of the last 20 years, then Gold might follow soon.

Will update charts soon, want to see more PA play out first.


----------



## Sean K (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> With Oil looking like it may have come of the boil and even perhaps be on the verge of ending one of biggest speculative manias of the last 20 years, then Gold might follow soon.
> 
> Will update charts soon, want to see more PA play out first.



Cheers.

Yes, I can see this happening, as I am a believer that the POO is one of the vital ingredients for POG support. Others in the gold thread seem to think it may completely decouple at some point, but I'm not so sure. 

Interesting POO way off, and POG finally held up today, although it obviously fell a lot mid day with oil. 

Sorry, off XAO topic.


----------



## wavepicker (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Cheers.
> 
> Yes, I can see this happening, as I am a believer that the POO is one of the vital ingredients for POG support. Others in the gold thread seem it may decouple at some point, but I'm not so sure.
> 
> Sorry, off XAO topic.




Kennas, I know jack about fundementals too. But I do know a bubble chart when I see one. The chart of Oil has gone parabolic and is starting to look like that of the Nasdaq back in 2000. Although I thought it may have found a top $20 lower  than what it is trading now it is still a bubble in my eyes. The trouble with bubbles, especially in commodities is that it can be a waste of time looking for tops as the rate of change of price changes so fast. But the warning signs are there from long before and Oil does have that distinctive parabolic spike top about it!!


----------



## nizar (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> the market has fallen much faster than I expected. I expected it to hang around the 5000/5500  in a sideways formation for longer before tanking, but that's trading!!




I tend to agree wholly.
I thought we would see more sideways and less tanking and that if 4600-4800 was to be reached that the market would get there maybe towards the end of the year-ish.

I dont trade based on my analysis so its nothing more than an opinion.


----------



## springhill (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting how the market is up 2day when almost every other market OS was in the red.... is this the start of the dead cat bounce, or are people starting to see value in the market? Of all my stocks i own or on my watchlists, volume of SDL is the one i keep an eye on to use as a barometre of the market sentiment of the day. Currently at around 20 million shares traded, hasnt seen this volume for a week or 2


----------



## Sean K (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



springhill said:


> Interesting how the market is up 2day when almost every other market OS was in the red.... is this the start of the dead cat bounce, or are people starting to see value in the market? Of all my stocks i own or on my watchlists, volume of SDL is the one i keep an eye on to use as a barometre of the market sentiment of the day. Currently at around 20 million shares traded, hasnt seen this volume for a week or 2



Day's not over. In this market a rumour could send it down 2% in seconds. Hold on to your hat!


----------



## Broadway (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Im just guessing ofcourse, but maybe the speeches by Paulson and Bernanke and the SEC chairman last night were somewhat reassuring.

They were quite honest about alot of topics. I picked up bits and pieces, like Bernanke feels we haven't reached peak oil, that they are chasing and catching wall street guys who are spreading rumours, and they will be making it harder in the future to massively short financial institutions.

All the regular banks are up 3-4% today.

And hopefully a vix around 32 might be enough for some bears.

Who knows, time will tell.


----------



## Whiskers (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Im just guessing ofcourse, but maybe the speeches by Paulson and Bernanke and the SEC chairman last night were somewhat reassuring.
> 
> They were quite honest about alot of topics. I picked up bits and pieces, like Bernanke feels we haven't reached peak oil, that they are chasing and catching wall street guys who are *spreading rumours*, and they will be making it harder in the future to *massively short financial institutions*.
> 
> ...




That's them bludy speculators and market manipulators again. 

Hope they loose their shorts... er I mean pants and end up fully exposed, 'naked'. :


----------



## wavepicker (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like some support in time could be creeping here. Also concured by Cyclic Bands, which have reached an area whereby a regression to mean might be starting to build up soon as prices have reached an extreme relative to the Nominal, ofcourse could be a minor bounce and could continue lower but getting closer IMO. Cycle point blue 12 point due any time now in the Intermediate Cycle Timeframe of the Fixed Cycle Analysis

Doubt this would be a major low as still uncompleted EW subdivisions and also not enough TIME up yet.


----------



## Whiskers (16 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oh dear, according to further study of my micro count, I have to adjust my target *DOWN* again to about 4812. 



wavepicker said:


> Doubt this would be a major low as still uncompleted EW subdivisions and also not enough TIME up yet.




Augh, common WP those speculators and manipulators have had too much of a go already. :

Not to worry too much I suppose... oil will strip them down to their 'shorts' pretty soon and they'll be rushing to get rugged up in 'longies' here again to avoid being left out in the cold.


----------



## davo8 (17 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Doubt this would be a major low as still uncompleted EW subdivisions and also not enough TIME up yet.




For my money EW is still voodoo but seems we agree: this is NOT the bottom. It doesn't look like at all like one, and there is too much fundamental bad news yet to come from US, Europe and local.

An average bear market drops 28%, or about where we are; a bad one more like 40% from peak, which is around 4100. Will it go that low? It just might, and there will be some great bargains then.


----------



## nizar (17 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> It doesn't look like at all like one, and there is too much fundamental bad news yet to come from US, Europe and local.




Remind us again how you know about which news is yet to come?


----------



## Sean K (17 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Kennas, I know jack about fundementals too. But I do know a bubble chart when I see one. The chart of Oil has gone parabolic and is starting to look like that of the Nasdaq back in 2000. Although I thought it may have found a top $20 lower  than what it is trading now it is still a bubble in my eyes. The trouble with bubbles, especially in commodities is that it can be a waste of time looking for tops as the rate of change of price changes so fast. But the warning signs are there from long before and Oil does have that distinctive parabolic spike top about it!!



POOs fall has certainly had an instant effect on the perception in the US market. While a major contributor to inflation and reduced spending, it's not the root cause of the US/world problems, and any correction in POO may give the market's a break, but not completely turn them around. Maybe. 

US certainly starting well, but who knows what could happen through the day...


----------



## wayneL (17 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Remind us again how you know about which news is yet to come?




It's like having a boil. 

You can't see it at first, but you know it's there. You know it's only a matter of time before it comes to a head and bursts, spewing pus and dead tissue all over the place.

Quite easy really... cause ===>>> effect.

Anything else, Grasshopper?


----------



## wavepicker (17 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> POOs fall has certainly had an instant effect on the perception in the US market. While a major contributor to inflation and reduced spending, it's not the root cause of the US/world problems, and any correction in POO may give the market's a break, but not completely turn them around. Maybe.
> 
> US certainly starting well, but who knows what could happen through the day...




Obviously POO has been in a "blowoff" for a while. One thing about blowoff trends that is interesting:-

Countertrends are usually 1-2 days. If a countertrend usually exceeds 4 days, then the trend has most likely fractured.  If the merket exceeds 4 days in a row down, then watch for the first counter back up. If it's only one day, then I am short to the buggery on the next down day!

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker (17 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> For my money EW is still voodoo but seems we agree: this is NOT the bottom. It doesn't look like at all like one, and there is too much fundamental bad news yet to come from US, Europe and local.
> 
> An average bear market drops 28%, or about where we are; a bad one more like 40% from peak, which is around 4100. Will it go that low? It just might, and there will be some great bargains then.





Think what you may, EW maybe voodoo, and sometimes it drives me mad too!! But anything that can give someone an edge(especially in this market!) is well worth pursuing.

How low? We can only wait and see, but as time gets closer the market will give us clues. EW might be voodoo and inconsistant, but on the other hand cycles extracted from past market data are not. They simply cycles- no subjectivity.  Although they cannot pinpoint an exact high or low, they will alert you to an upcoming change and perhaps help you with the most likely wave count too.
 Example: last September, some cyclic analysis charts I posted alerted us to the fact that the uptrend was very mature and due to turn. The market ran higher for another 2 months, but the warning signs were there. Each to their own!



Cheers


----------



## nizar (17 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Anything else, Grasshopper?




WTF ?? 
The question wasn't directed at you my friend.


----------



## wayneL (17 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> WTF ??
> The question wasn't directed at you my friend.



OK. Just ignore what I said then.


----------



## davo8 (17 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Remind us again how you know about which news is yet to come?




Simple really. I read, I research and I use my brain. The broad trends are there for everyone to see. The news is just filling in the detail.

For some good reading, may I suggest:
Nouriel Roubini



> # This is by far the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression
> # Hundreds of small banks with massive exposure to real estate (the average small bank has 67% of its assets in real estate) will go bust
> # Dozens of large regional/national banks (a’ la IndyMac) are also bankrupt given their extreme exposure to real estate and will also go bust
> # Some major money center banks are also semi-insolvent and while they are deemed too big to fail their rescue with FDIC money will be extremely costly.
> ...




Bank failures, pictures of people queuing to get their money out, sad stories, bankruptcies all make great news. This is how I know that news is coming, even though I don't know which banks or which pictures will make up that news.

This is one source of many. Do your own reading, as I do.


----------



## nizar (17 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Simple really. I read, I research and I use my brain.




Thanks Davo, will take that on board buddy


----------



## MRC & Co (17 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I belive it's called 'global macro' davo. 

Some of the richest men on the planet have used it to amass their millions/billions.  

Hope you had your shorts on the banks, consumer cyclicals, USD and longs on gold and energy over the past year.


----------



## Snakey (17 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not the bottom yet my friends 
temporary p!ss poor turn around IMO


----------



## white_goodman (17 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Snakey said:


> Not the bottom yet my friends
> temporary p!ss poor turn around IMO




bring on the bad news i wanna hit bottom in roughly 2 months


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Simple really. I read, I research and I use my brain. The broad trends are there for everyone to see. The news is just filling in the detail.
> 
> For some good reading, may I suggest:
> Nouriel Roubini
> ...



Since we all know this davo, it must be factored in to the market already right?


----------



## MRC & Co (18 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Since we all know this davo, it must be factored in to the market already right?




But what do we know?  How bad is it?  

Many knew the financial system was shot long ago, but how many held shorts on the banks the whole way down?  Obviously, the carnage that has been seen in recent times, was not 'factored into expectations'. 

Sometimes I'm not so sure if you can take anything from market expectations or the fact of whether or not they were 'factored' into price yet.  Market takes time to move, so a longer-term situation may take a long time for it to sink in and play out (even though a lot of people can 'see' it coming), and hence we get a sharp, yet gradual move in one direction, with many ebbs and flows along the way.

I mean in hindsight, was it obvious the USD was going to fall?  With a financial and housing crisis, Bernake givaways, falling IR's and high inflation?  It was almost universally recognised at the time, but few 'realised' this at the time.  Still, the USD continues to take a beating.  

I know some algo bots are starting to look at 'expectations' and predict price movements based on news releases, will be interesting to know if they have any success.  

Expectations are an area that has always baffled me, with absolutely no logical, rhyme nor reason behind them.  Bet the bots don't pull any useful data out of their black boxes!  Just my bet.


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> But what do we know?  How bad is it?



Yes, it could just as easily be assuming that the future is better than it's going to be. 

Our market's off by how much compared to average earnings downgrades? Market pe is about 11 ish, and long term average is 15 ish. We seem to be factoring a bit of a slow down you'd reakon. 

But yes, might not be enough. Perhaps the market forward pe needs to get down to about 5...


----------



## wavepicker (18 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Market has rallied as per expectations in last post in this thread. Is it a major low? Impossible to tell yet. But as mentiond in last post, EW sub divisions appear incomplete and more importantly fixed time cycle points show not enough time has elapsed.

Rather than putting 100% faith in these tools best to look at the pattern of the trend first. The move down has so far lacked one key ingredient and that is the final  congestion followed by exhaustion or thrust down.

This congestion I beleive is wave 4 currently in progress, and it this pattern that may cause the market to show as a divergence in the oscillators in the weeks ahead. As such this wave 4 might  a sideways affair which may pecede that final low to our target which most likely will be a false break, and fast moves in the opposite direction start from false breaks.

Oil is in it's 4th day down, that's a close enough sign for me to say the trend maybe fractured. But go short now? Not yet!  We need to see what the countertrend looks like. If it is a counterend it will 1-2 days max, and we should not get close > than 75% of the range down. Then I will short.

Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla (18 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Market has rallied as per expectations in last post in this thread. Is it a major low? Impossible to tell yet. But as mentiond in last post, EW sub divisions appear incomplete and more importantly fixed time cycle points show not enough time has elapsed.




Agreed, I wouldn't bet on it being a low, but it looks more like a low than at any other time during this down move.  The small tail and the two strong up days suggest that move could well be done for now.


----------



## theasxgorilla (18 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Simple really. I read, I research and I use my brain.




If only that were all there was to it


----------



## theasxgorilla (18 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Since we all know this davo, it must be factored in to the market already right?




I think everyday it's in the process of being factored and priced in.  It's nigh on impossible to determine the extent to which other investors will (over) react, and hence the efficient market hypo is bogus.


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> I think everyday it's in the process of being factored and priced in.  It's nigh on impossible to determine the extent to which other investors will (over) react, and hence the efficient market hypo is bogus.



Merrill announced a second quarter loss of $4.9b, and I think it went up 10% on the good news.  Down in after close trade though I think.


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Merrill announced a second quarter loss of $4.9b, and I think it went up 10% on the good news.  Down in after close trade though I think.



Of course, I may also underestimate the number of muppets investing out there too. Like me.


----------



## theasxgorilla (18 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Of course, I may also underestimate the number of muppets investing out there too. Like me.




...or people with big-time exposure without time on their side marking to market the dollar value of their losses every day.  Or knowing that when they do it'll be a lot less than what they thought they were going to retire on in the next few years.


----------



## davo8 (19 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Since we all know this davo, it must be factored in to the market already right?




That's conventional wisdom, but nothing conventional can explain FRE & FNM going from >$20 to $5 in less than a month. Those are heavily analysed companies, and the analysts got it wrong.

These investment guys have never seen a housing collapse and credit crunch before. They don't know how to analyse it. Roubini is an economist, and he's been pretty accurate for the past 12 months. And there are others, if you know where to look. Plenty of hedge funds have been getting it right too -- but not all.

We have just seen a technical bounce driven by covering shorts, and it won't hold. The US financial sector is toast. The US broad economy will follow. Our market could go to 4200, and it may not recover for a year or more. Remember 1987?

I'll be looking for cheap stocks soon, but not banks.


----------



## Sean K (19 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

DJI is entering a significant support area.

Not sure what it equates to with the XAO, or even if they are aligned at the moment.

Up is down, and down is up..... 

eeeeeek!!!

Whatever the case, on the sum of the S&R buying in this zone might me a decent long term plan. Unless, we all have no idea. 

The bears are definately out of their caves right now and eating the bulls alive. Ouch.


----------



## Porper (19 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> DJI is entering a significant support area.
> 
> Not sure what it equates to with the XAO, or even if they are aligned at the moment.
> 
> ...




I posted this chart a couple weeks ago to a few on ASF privately before my computer died, which is why the data stops on the 02nd july. 

Not going to get into the E.Wave debate, as I have my own views and haven't the time to try and convince people that it does have some merits.

I have been watching the support that Kennas has put on his chart for a while, (red line on attached chart), this to me gives more support to the confluence of price projections and makes this area stronger  support (short term) at least.

Also look at the time projections for a turn around.Could be argued they are a week out, still of use to identify a probability zone for a change of trend, albeit maybe a short term one.

I am currently working on the next move, but if this bounce ends quickly and we go below this recent low on high volume it is extremely bearish.trying to push up through this support/now resistance would be almost impossible even medium term in my view.

So to summarise, support and resitance zones used in conjunction with E.Wave give higher probability outcomes.The more confluence the better.


----------



## rub92me (22 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Absolutely amazing. The bears finally take a day off on our market and we make the biggest gain for quite a while. Yet, not a single poster celebrating  (Not even Whiskers ). 
p.s. Yeah yeah I know, it's another bear trap, sucker rally, it won't last, etc. but can't we just be happy for 1 day. :


----------



## Whiskers (22 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rub92me said:


> Absolutely amazing. The bears finally take a day off on our market and we make the biggest gain for quite a while. Yet, not a single poster celebrating  (Not even Whiskers ).
> p.s. Yeah yeah I know, it's another bear trap, sucker rally, it won't last, etc. but can't we just be happy for 1 day. :




Hehehe, I'm desperately restraining myself, rub92me.

I'm fairly confident oil has past it's peak, but the other component of my reserection of the Aus market is the weakening of the AUD against the USD... or more precisely the strengthening of the USD index. That hasn't kicked in yet, and although (according to my new "L" EW count) one target has been met, I'm still a tad cautious of our market going a bit lower to that 4,812. 

It just looks like the last few days are, to quote the proper venacular of EW'ers, a bit corrective... ie might be a little widening of the little wave four of that last minor wave iv.

From my post the other day, I'm still cautious of the 'speculator' influence, although it looks like life is being made harder for them, mainly by regulations in the US, I am expecting a substaintal recovery once the consensus begins to emerge that the oil bubble has burst, which I feel should lead to some recovery of the USD index and confidence that the world economy will keep on carrying on. 



Whiskers said:


> Oh dear, according to further study of my micro count, I have to adjust my target *DOWN* again to about 4812.
> 
> 
> 
> Augh, common WP those speculators and manipulators have had too much of a go already. :


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> From my post the other day, I'm still cautious of the 'speculator' influence, although it looks like life is being made harder for them, mainly by regulations in the US, I am expecting a substaintal recovery once the consensus begins to emerge that the oil bubble has burst,




Hey Whiskers. Have you ever thought about the possibility that the fools with their "I'm doing all I can" regulations actually make the POO rise??

Thought about that one?


----------



## Whiskers (23 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Hey Whiskers. Have you ever thought about the possibility that the fools with their "I'm doing all I can" regulations actually make the POO rise??
> 
> Thought about that one?




Well yes TH, but how about you tell how you think so!


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Well yes TH, but how about you tell how you think so!





Well I reckon you can't answer how. Even though you are an expert on the futures manipulators.


----------



## Whiskers (23 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Well I reckon you can't answer how. Even though you are an expert on the futures manipulators.




But TH, the POO has fallen since the new regulations were passed. Yes, I thought about what you propose, but I figured it wouldn't happen and it hasn't happened.

I don't pretend to be an expert of futures, but I do know a little about forensic accounting... which is the jist of the point about the potential for commercials to manipulate the market that I previously discussed with wayneL. 

On balance my judgement is that the extra regulation would make it harder to speculate in the broader sense of manipulation of the market... and that seems to be born out in the price movement so far.

So why are you being so coy about sharing your theory?


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Figured Whiskers you haven't a clue.

You go about trying to squeeze speculators your are just as likely to cause a squeeze of the weak. In this case the shorts. Creating a SHORT SQUEESE higher.

The assumption that speculators are ALL long is just dumb. And shows a lack of understanding of what moves markets.


----------



## Whiskers (23 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Figured Whiskers you haven't a clue.
> 
> You go about trying to squeeze speculators your are just as likely to cause a squeeze of the weak. In this case the shorts. Creating a SHORT SQUEESE higher.
> 
> The assumption that speculators are ALL long is just dumb. And shows a lack of understanding of what moves markets.




Basically, if I recall correctly, the new regulations just bring satelite markets that feed into the US up to the same level of margin with the US markets and impose a much higher level of accountability and transparency across the whole oil market. 

How are the new regulations squeezing the shorts?


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> How are the new regulations squeezing the shorts?




Presumably the increase margin is a some kind of attempted to stop manipulation, as uniformed as that is. All that will eventually do is squeeze who ever is the weakest. And pull backs aside. I would bet the Longs have more fire power than the weak and wary shorts.


----------



## Whiskers (23 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I thought this little note on oil worthy of keeping in mind in the context of the Aus market. 

I noticed this from EWI's latest newsletter. I don't have a paid subscription, because I already knew this. :

Maybe someone who has a subscription or a proficient EW'er could eloberate. 

http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=gw


----------



## wavepicker (25 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On the 16th July I posted we had important turn dates coming up on both 24th July and 8-15th August. 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=315090&postcount=3789

The 24th July turn date marked a high last night, and this IMO is setting up a very important low coming. Last nights turn was further quantified by the Cycle Bands as an important high and that markets neded to revert back to the nominal.

All eyes now on Aug 8th-15th, will this be a higher low or a lower low?  Either way it will be a very important one IMO:


----------



## Porper (25 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> On the 16th July I posted we had important turn dates coming up on both 24th July and 8-15th August.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=315090&postcount=3789
> 
> ...




As Wavepicker has posted a chart with time analysis on, thought I would do the same.Then Trader Paul can do the same as he challenged E.Wavers on another thread.

My count is slightly different to most.(more an alternate count).Most have my wave 4 as a wave B and we are in the wave C now.My next significant date is 19th-21st August.

This count has us starting a A,B,C correction.Either count has us short term bullish, however if this pans out we will be going to 4000 !!!


----------



## korrupt_1 (25 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking a bit oversold??


----------



## CamKawa (25 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I've got my RSI set at 14 days on the close and there's still plenty of room down below 

With MACD giving a buy signal who's brave enough to buy NAB at -12.2% off then?


----------



## wavepicker (25 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> As Wavepicker has posted a chart with time analysis on, thought I would do the same.Then Trader Paul can do the same as he challenged E.Wavers on another thread.
> 
> My count is slightly different to most.(more an alternate count).Most have my wave 4 as a wave B and we are in the wave C now.My next significant date is 19th-21st August.
> 
> This count has us starting a A,B,C correction.Either count has us short term bullish, however if this pans out we will be going to 4000 !!!




Let's see what happens Pete, long term analysis is always very difficult. Luckily I made a quick trade at QAN a few weeks ago( which I exited 2 days ago) ago and caught a good rally to the upside due to Oil getting smashed.

I have a target of 4686-4691 for the XAO  low. Is that the bottom for this leg?  Well not sure yet, but statistically speaking the 2nd lower std deviation below the Nominal level of the Cycle Bands Analysis I use has provided rock solid support for the last 21 years(which is as far as I have data for). That level is approx 4700.  The next band which is -3 std deviations below our nominal level is approx 4200. If it does reach that level it will be the first time ever. So that is why I favour the 4700 level approx ATM.

However anything is possible isn't it!!

No matter how long the bear campaign lasts, there will be many rallies and still opportunities

Should be an interesting next few months

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And to excite Paulie even more here is some Aget analysis which is algorithmic and in my view the least accurate. But as we have 2 views one a cycle analysis and the other an alternate count to many I throw this one into the ring.
Its showing the wave 5 as in complete as yet. If it does make a lower low then Petes count is unlikely.As for time 8--12th August.


----------



## wavepicker (25 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hello Tech, what has been your experience  with the AGet Make or Break estimate in the past? Would be interesting to do some backtesting on it to see how it stacks up.

I have done some quick historical projections for the XAO, sometimes the market falls short of the Make or Break target and othertimes exceeds it. This can be anything up to plus or minus the 200 pts above or below the nominal of the Make or Break range. Nevertheless, seems to be quite useful as a guide.


AGet also gives other potential targets for W5 completion, one at 4700 and another at 3897.

Cheers


----------



## Boggo (25 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

An A B C correction off the Nov 1st high ??
I am not sure I like these bright colours


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Boggo.*

Interesting that wave 5 projection from Get and yours are pretty close.

*Waves.*
Wave 5s seem to be more on the mark.
Wave 3s often exceeded.
I think the accuracy lies in the count.
Obviously correct counts are more likely to conform to the MOB than those which are obviously arithmetically labelled "To Fit".

Same goes for corrective counts I have found.
To be honest if its not obvious I ditch Aget and most of the time I cant see a label count myself so move on. Often Get will give me the Basic wave count formation---as you know you can label it many ways with the software.

The same observation with the elipse.
If the counts "Correct" the elipse is un canny as is all the analysis from Fib to  cycles in Elliot---well at least thats my experience.


----------



## wavepicker (25 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> If these things happen, 4700 is way too optimistic. If not, we could get lucky. I don't think you can read those things in your wave counts.




I would not even want to try......

The events you mentioned are purely random like your motto. You mentioned *IF* they happen.
If they did, how could you possibly make head or tails of them?? i.e there has been talk of war before and the market has been up a lot and other times there it has been down a lot. How do you make a decision as to which way to trade from such political statements or events?

The motion of the market is internal and dynamic, the equity "events" ultimately end up having only a small impact on the overall direction of the market over the long term. Studies in the past on the key elements of market motion break it down as follows:-:

-Forseeable fundemental events  *OR* some exogeneous force,
account for 75% of all price motion.The effect is smooth and slow changing.

 -Approximately 23% of market motion is *Cyclic* in nature and is "semi predictable", the basis of which as an example is in the Cyclic Analysis charts I have previously posted

-Random events account for only 2% of price change of overall market motion

It's the 23% that I land others who practice TA like to focus on.

Next then, is there order in the market? The answer as far as I am concerned is very much YES. If there was no order or cycles, then we would not be able to trade succesfully from our charts by recognizing patterns or patterns of trend. For that matter our cycle points would not repeat at fixed time intervals either.  

Having said that, for the market to have order is one thing, that does not imply it has accuracy, therefore it's impossible to find that holy grail!!



Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla (26 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Let's see what happens Pete, *long term analysis is always very difficult.*




I agree.  Is the XAO at 4800 when the AUD/USD is at 96 cents meaning the same in various relative macro terms as when the index was at the same level and the cross-rate was 76 cents?  Too many things change over time which relate to the meaning of the index at a particular level to expect long term wave counts to be precise.


----------



## tech/a (26 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

An alternative count which I think more likely.
End result very similar the path taken slightly different.


----------



## Boggo (26 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Most predictions and associated variations seem to be ending in the same area.

This is a manual input except for the fib projection (am open to corrections)

There could be 200 points in a short of the XJO on a break below 4787 ?
(attached pic below is XAO)

I think its amazing that the XJO represents over 70% of the value of the overall market.

Mike


----------



## davo8 (27 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> -Forseeable fundemental events  *OR* some exogeneous force,
> account for 75% of all price motion.The effect is smooth and slow changing.




True, an attack on Iran would be have a major effect that would last at least months, but it would pass. The generals may know if it's on, but the market is not betting on it.

The 800lb gorilla is the ongoing implosion of the US property and credit markets: first sub-prime, then most residential, then commercial, then everything else, taking banks and finance stocks with it. This is a known, durable, severe force but there is disagreement about the magnitude.

If it's as bad as I think it is, this will be the biggest bear in 70 years, and will shake the foundations of the US government and monetary system, as well as triggering a world recession.

If you can't quantify that, you can't predict how low or how long. You can easily find 100 long-term cycle analysts and after the event 1 or more of them will be proven right, but no-one yet knows which!

The outcome of this process is not priced into the market because the market doesn't yet know what's going to happen. You can find experienced traders making and losing fortunes right now, because they've never seen anything like this before.

TA tells you what other people think will happen, not what really will happen. Often they coincide, but these are uncommon times.


----------



## tech/a (27 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> TA tells you what other people think will happen, not what really will happen. Often they coincide, but these are uncommon times.




T/A analyses what has happened.
T/A can offer insight into the carrying forward of past and current sentiment.
*All analysis* is there to be confirmed or rejected.
It neither right nor wrong.


----------



## MRC & Co (27 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You may not be too far off Davo.

Most of what is happening now, is still lagging into the data.  

Just for the sake of it, here is a piece I wrote a few years ago.  Feel free to attempt to rip it to shreds those who enjoy their economics.  If you want the graphs I am referring too, I can post them up seperately, but theres quiet a few of them.

Not that I agree with all of it, it was just to proove a point and makes one think where we currently are, and what is really 'known' as of yet by your average trader/investor.  I am sure the guys at the Central Bank know a LOT more the dire times we are in than they let out.  So how much has really been, 'factored into expectations'?

Will post it in a tick.


----------



## MRC & Co (27 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

“Time lags involved make a counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy impractical.”

The business cycle is characterised by four stages and is driven by investment and the accumulation of capital.  Governments believe the business cycle can be fine-tuned through the use of fiscal and monetary policy.  Fiscal policy is a plan to be administered over numerous years and its blunt nature is shown using 2 examples of policy in the 1991/92 recession.  Fiscal policy writers face both recognition and administrative/political time lags.  Fiscal policy’ crowding out effect is a further lag, leading to added difficulties for policy writers.  Real-time output gaps and quarterly national accounts data are analysed for the use of monetary policy, followed by an analysis of monetary policy time lags.  Finally, a practical example of the Australian economy in the early 90s is used to show how the complex nature of the economic system and time lags lead to macroeconomic policy impracticality.  

A business cycle is characterised by an expansion, peak, contraction and trough.  There are several theories attempting to explain the business cycle, the main theories being Keynesian theory, Monetarist theory and Rational Expectations theory.  However, all agree that investment and the accumulation of capital play a crucial role in the business cycle.  When a shock hits the economy, such as the dot.com bubble burst, investment is hit.  When investment in new capital slows, recessions begin and vice-versa when investment accelerates, as viewed in figures 1) and 2), of which further show 5 business cycles over the past two decades in Australia.  
In an expansion, investment increases quickly and the stock of capital grows rapidly.  This rapid capital growth means that capital per hour of labour is growing.  Thus labour becomes more productive and the law of diminishing returns begins, therefore, whilst the quantity of capital increases, the quantity of labour remains constant, and eventually productivity per unit of capital falls. Leading to a fall in profits and less incentive to invest.  Investment falls over time, and when it falls by a large amount, recession begins.  With slow/falling capital growth per hour of labour, businesses see opportunity for profitable investment and the pace of investment accelerates, thus leading to an expansion.  (McTaggart, 2003).  

Figure(s) 1), 2)


Governments believe through the use of both monetary and fiscal policy, economic cycles can be “fine-tuned”, thus reducing threat of recession and ultimately enabling long-term sustainable economic growth. 
Fiscal policy is defined as, the government’s attempt to influence the economy by varying its purchases of goods and services and taxes to smooth the fluctuations in aggregate expenditure.  (McTaggart, 2003, p831).  
Monetary policy is defined as, the attempt to control inflation and the foreign exchange value of the domestic currency and to moderate the business cycle by changing the quantity of money in circulation and adjusting the interest rate. (McTaggart, 2003, p835).

As the budget is a plan of government expenditure to be administered over a period anywhere from one to four or more years, the flexibility of the budget and therefore fiscal policy is rather limited. Unlike its counterpart monetary policy, fiscal policy is incapable of rapid adjustment when it becomes necessary to respond to emerging developments.  Otherwise known as a “blunt” tool. (John, 2002).  This was seen in the 91-92 Australian recession, where 2 fiscal policy packages were observed.  
1.	1 nation package – proposed infrastructure spending, on ports, railways, airports etc.  The package was intended to be counter-cyclical, however by the time decisions were made, plans were developed and policy was implemented, the money was spent a couple of years after the recession was noticed.  (Applegate, 2005)
2.	Working nations package – focused on training and skills development of workers, a large focus was also on reducing the NAIRU.  Money in this plan was spent faster than the 1 nation package, however planning was still involved and unemployment had moved up by the time the plan was implemented.  (Applegate, 2005).  Overall, though, the most important conclusion yielded by a study of these packages is that neither will have more than a marginal impact on the economic problems facing Australia and particularly on unemployment.  (Quiggin, 1997).  


The business Council of Australia recognised two problems with fiscal policy in its 1999 submission of 'Avoiding boom/bust: macroeconomic reform in a globalised economy'. They were a time lag in policy development and implementation, and a distinct link to political decisions. (John, 2002)
A recognition time lag, most often than not, has accompanied fiscal policy in that the economy may already be more than six months into a recession or inflation before the fact appears in the relevant data and is acknowledged. (Jackson, 1998).  I.e. employment numbers lag behind the economy.  At first employers work their employees harder when business increases (expansion), in time, new employees are hired.  Vice-versa occurs in a contraction/recession.  Thus loan approvals, confidence surveys (both consumer and business confidence), employment forecasts and investment intentions are used in order to attempt to predict numbers in advance.  Forecasts are however, not good at picking turning points in the business cycle.  (Applegate, 2005).  
Administrative and political time lags are evident as there is a clear link between the time fiscal action is recognised and the time it is actually implemented. (Jackson, 1998).  Also known as decision lags, of which are lengthy, as tax and expenditure changes have to go through a lengthy parliamentary decision-making process.  (Calmfors, 2003).  Tax cuts are faster to hit the economy, however if assumed to be a one off cut, may simply be saved.  (Applegate, 2005).


----------



## MRC & Co (27 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Such delays reduce the flexibility of fiscal policy prompting many, including the Business Council of Australia, to suggest the creation of an autonomous government body. Similar to the Reserve Bank of Australia, this body would have the powers to make small across the board adjustments to tax rates within one or more major tax areas. This is a minority view. (John, 2002).  It is however, hard to know the impact of tax cuts, if seen as temporary they might be saved, furthermore, the cuts could be spent on imports, thus it is hard to predict the multiplier.  

Another major source of debate, pointing to the impracticality of fiscal policy in the medium run is shown below in figure 1.

An increase in government spending leads to an increase in demand, leading to an increase in output. As output increases, so does the demand for money, leading to an upward pressure on the interest rate, moving the equilibrium point form A to A' in the ISLM model graph. The increase in the interest rate, which makes domestic bonds more attractive, also leads to an appreciation of the domestic currency, represented by the movement along the interest parity cure from point A to A', reflecting the same change in the interest rate from the ISLM model graph. 
Both the higher interest rate and the appreciation decrease the domestic demand for goods, off setting some of the effect of government spending on demand and output. (Blanchard, 2000).  This effect, known as the “crowding out” effect, is not experienced for some time after the initial change in government spending, further making it difficult for policy makers to accurately and successfully implement counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy.

Successful macroeconomic management involves a process of continual reassessment of the state of the macro-economy. Among many things that policy-makers would like to know about the current state of the economy is the extent to which the level of aggregate economic activity exceeds (or falls short of) the economy’s productive capacity.  (Gruen, 2002, p1).  The gap between actual output and the economy’s potential output, is the output gap.  This output gap, must however, be able to be measured with relative accuracy in real-time, not only in hindsight.  It is difficult to measure the output gap either in real-time or in hindsight, simply because the level of potential output on which they are based is unobservable, including problems such as the uncertainty pertaining to the true structure of the economy and hence the relationship between potential output and economic data on actual output and inflation etc.  (Gruen, 2002).  On a paper written by Gruen, Robinson and Stone: Output gaps in real time: are they reliable enough to use for monetary policy?, it has been concluded using results from 121 vintages over a period of 30 years, from 1971 – 2001, that estimates of the output gap in real-time are relatively accurate.  (Gruen, 2002).  Gruen however, also states common logic in his paper, there remains an irreducible degree of uncertainty associated with output gaps generated in real time. The problem of ‘not knowing the future’ is still an important one and there will always be times when the best available estimates of the output gap made in real time will turn out, with the benefit of hindsight, to have been badly flawed.  (Gruen, 2002, p32).  
Furthermore, estimates of quarterly national accounts are a useful guideline for the implementation of macroeconomic counter-cyclical policy.  However, an RBA discussion paper written by Stone and Wardrop states: Initial mismeasurement has also frequently been quite persistent, often largely remaining even several years after the period being measured.  (Stone, 2002, p21).  Thus, quarterly measurements of the national accounts cannot be taken seriously when implementing monetary policy due to time lags in the attainment of accurate information, as shown with the use of the Taylor Rule at the time of monetary policy implementation and using the same formula with numbers gained from hindsight.  Orphanides pointed to this flaw in the Taylor rule and further states in relation to the use of quarterly national accounts figures, they indicate ‘the profound importance of appreciating the information problem for successful policy design’.  (Stone, 2002, p21).  Finally, it is of paramount importance to remember that uncertainty pertaining to the economy is not only derived from the difficulty of measuring future paths of key economic variables such as aggregate output, but further, in knowing where those variables are now, and where they have been in the past.  (Stone, 2002).  

A recognition time lag is observed when implementing monetary policy, in that data simply gives a “rearview mirror” through which to view the economy.  An impact lag is further evident, in that there are several quarters between a cut in interest rates and the response on aggregate demand.  
It is estimated output growth falls by 1/3 of a percent in the first and second years, and 1-6 of a percent in the third year, after a 1 percent increase in the short term interest rate (IR).  (Gruen, 1997).  Therefore, the majority of the effect on growth occurs more than a year after a change in the IR.  IR changes further have a lagging effect on the exchange rate, further complicating counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy.
For example, a fall in the IR is supposed to raise the cost of foreign goods, in that it deprecates the Australian dollar (AUD), however it may take a while before domestic buyers switch from imported products to domestic products.
Furthermore, we do not know the "natural rate of unemployment," which is the rate below which we would start to experience increasing inflation. We further, do not know the exact relationship between interest rates and aggregate demand.   (King, 2003).  This is known as model uncertainty.  The combination of model uncertainty and time lags makes a mockery of the notion of "fine tuning" the economy to always be at optimum performance.  (King, 2003).
A research article published at the RBA agrees with the notion it is impractical to fine-tune the business cycle and states: “These relatively long lags, combined with the problems inherent in forecasting economic growth more than a year into the future, point to the difficulty of trying to use monetary policy to iron-out fluctuations in the business cycle.”  (Gruen, 1997, p24).  

Furthermore, monetary policy aims to achieve medium-term price stability.  While output is a leading indicator of inflation, success in the persuit of medium-term price stability does not depend on being able to “fine tune” the business cycle.  (Gruen, 1997).  “Prolonged swings in output can and should be avoided, but the policy lags are long enough, and uncertain enough, that it is futile to try to use monetary policy to finetune the business cycle.”  (Gruen, 1997, p24).  

A practical example of why time lags lead to ineffective counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy when interacting with the complexity of the domestic economy and global shocks (both demand and supply side), is the example of the recession in Australia during 1990/91.   
Australian recession 1990/91 – firstly the United States experienced a recession, as it is the largest economy in the world, this dramatically impacted negatively on the Australian economy, as both Australian and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) generally interact very closely.  Further, in 1988 the Australian economy was growing rapidly, inflation was already high and there were fears of it growing further due to demand pressures.  The RBA began to increase interest rates.  However, as part of the general move towards financial deregulation, the link between base money and broader monetary aggregates broke down.  (McTaggart, 2002, 767).  Illustrated in Figure 3).  M3 continued to grow whilst the money base contracted, meaning contractionary effects of monetary tightening weren’t felt for some time and the economy continued to grow.  Figure 4) illustrates the recession Australia felt in 1990/91.  The recession was caused by a decrease in both aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS).  AD fell due to the slowdown in the US economy, leading to a fall in exports and a slowdown in the growth rate of the quantity of money, leading to an increase in the IR and a decline in investment.  Hence, to a leftward shift in AD from AD0 to AD1.  AS decreased because the money wage rate continued to increase throughout 1990 at a similar rate to that of 1989.  Shown by a shift of the AS curve to Short-Run Aggregate Supply 1 (SAS1).  Note:  Long-run AS curve is not shown.  The combined effect was a fall in real GDP of $3 billion, from $451 billion to $448 billion and an increase in the price level from 88 to 90.  
During the recession, real wages rose and so did unemployment as shown in Figure 5).  This was due to the Accord, with wage increases being granted on expected future outcomes, however the rapid fall in inflation due to monetary tightening in 1988 was unexpected, hence although money wage increases were moderate, the real wage rose rapidly as the price level hadn’t risen nearly as high as expected.  (McTaggart, 2002).  

Figure 3)                                                              Figure 4)   


Figure 5)


----------



## MRC & Co (27 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The way the system of the economy operates is complex, time lags add to the complexity policy writers face, these factors combined make counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy impractical, as witnessed in the above example.  In some cases governmental actions can actually worsen the state of the economy when trying to use monetary and fiscal policy to “fine tune” the business cycle.    

Finally, effects of policy taken today will impact on the economy over years, however, no-one is accurately able to forecast that far ahead.  The forecast horizon of policy makers is less than one year.  (McTaggart, 2002, 790).  Furthermore, it is not possible to predict the exact timing and magnitute of the effects policy will have on the economy.  (McTaggart, 2002).  Clearly it is evident time lags make counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy impractical.  

The business cycle is inherent to any economy, characterised by expansion, peak, contraction and trough and driven by investment and the accumulation of capital.  Governments use fiscal and monetary policy in order to attempt to fine-tune the business cycle.  Fiscal policy is however, a plan for expenditures over multiple years and due to both recognition and administrative/political time lags is ineffective in the use of counter-cyclical policy.  The crowding out effect further lags behind initial expenditures/tax cuts, leading to difficulties measuring the magnitute of economic effects for policy writers.  Real-time output gaps can be measured relatively accurately, however the fact that no-one can ever predict the future leads to the notion that even the best forecasts may be badly flawed in hindsight.  Quarterly national accounts data is further unreliable for economic estimates due to the time lags in the attainment of useful data.  Furthermore, the majority of effects of monetary policy hit the economy over a year after initial action, thus due to time lags and the problems inherent in forecasting economic growth more than a year into the future, make “fine-tuning” the business cycle impractical.  Finally, an example of the Australian economy in the early 90s recession, highlights the fact that time lags combined with the complex nature of the economy lead to policy producing detrimental economic results.

Cheers

Important part is the lags in data and time it takes for things to play out.  We are just seeing the very tip of the iceburg IMHO.  Give it another year or two until we really start to see some messy statistics.  We are in the contraction phase, at the start of a recession IMO.  At least in the US, which will of course, affect the global economy and hence, the XAO.


----------



## theasxgorilla (27 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> *T/A analyses what has happened.*
> T/A can offer insight into the carrying forward of past and current sentiment.
> *All analysis* is there to be confirmed or rejected.
> It neither right nor wrong.




You beat me to it.


----------



## wayneL (27 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> You beat me to it.



I just couldn't be bothered.

I discovered through recent investigations (which you know about G) that there is a whole world out there who have:

1/ a vested interest in dissing TA
2/ been indoctrinated into regarding it as voodoo
3/ has had the purpose of TA misrepresented to them
4/ unable to see past the indoctrination

What random walkers fail to realize is that the random walk hypothesis and technical analysis are not incongruent with each other. They are two sides to the same coin. Just differing philosophy on the exploitation of price.

My observation is that it may come down to credibility. Supposing Martha Higgins, a wealthy retired widow is advised by her financial wealth skimmer..... errr I mean adviser, to buy XYZ share. Martha, a bit wary of this chap's picks questions further. What is going to sound better to Martha:

1/ This share is fundamentally cheap, the PE, ROI, ROE and BS ratios all indicate this share will appreciate in value.

2/ The red line crossed the blue line.

???


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I just couldn't be bothered.




Had a long winded post hours ago but couldn't be bothered hitting submit. 

Luckily, your one line has summed it up V.nicely.



wayneL said:


> 3/ has had the purpose of TA misrepresented to them




I wonder how many of the punters trying to use TA are under the same misrepresentations?? Unfourtantly I think many.


----------



## tech/a (27 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bloody hell MRC are you an economic reporter?



> is advised by her financial wealth skimmer..... errr I mean adviser,




Classic!


----------



## MRC & Co (27 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Bloody hell MRC are you an economic reporter?
> 
> 
> 
> Classic!




lol, I was a Ministerial advisor on some topics.

Though, forget half of it already these days!  

Not sure how much relevance it is, but 'expectations' and 'lags' have been talked about lately on the thread a bit, so made me remember this piece I wrote.  Then again, I also wrote a piece on the effectivness of both fiscal and monetary policy 

Bloody economists hey!


----------



## theasxgorilla (28 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Give it another year or two until we really start to see some messy statistics.  We are in the contraction phase, at the start of a recession IMO.  At least in the US, which will of course, affect the global economy and hence, the XAO.




Why is it different this time?  Australia weathered the last US economic recession rather well.


----------



## wayneL (28 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Why is it different this time?  Australia weathered the last US economic recession rather well.



Well you have to look at at why recessions happen, why the US had a recession and why Oz  didn't.

The simplest explanation is that recessions are the result of malinvestment, the US had a high level of malinvestment, whereas Oz didn't.

Is this time different? Is Oz malinvested? The answer will tell us whether Oz has a recession this time.


----------



## MRC & Co (28 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Why is it different this time?  Australia weathered the last US economic recession rather well.




Personally, as discussed previously, this recession (if it happens and as Davo already stated), is completely different to anything I have witnessed seeing before.

Global Paradigm shift taking place and Australia is pretty well placed in comparison to many other economies.  This growth in the East is further compounding, each year requires more and more resources to keep up with growth demands.  

I'm still waiting to see how the US plans to get out of it's stagflation problem without causing a major recession.  Look at how Japan dealt with its liquidity trap, and that is at least somewhat managable.  

The lags I pointed out in relation to monetary policy are one reason I stated it is complete CB nonsense to increase rates right after they have just slashed them.  So what are they going to do?  How are they going to stop inflation?  Expansionary fiscal (though, basically useless in a floating exchange rate economy) and monetary policy, subsidising failing industries and companies, it is just getting out of control.  This has got to be one of the biggest instances of patch up mode I have studied, and ultimately, there is only one outcome IMO, which will take time to play out and come up in the data (of which is ultimately what affects the markets).  China will slow, Europe will slow.  All suffering from increasing inflation being driven by cost-push in the West and demand-driven in the East.  Wouldn't like to be a policy writer at this time in the West .

I think most of this is covered in the "imminent and severe market correction" thread.


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> I was a Ministerial advisor on some topics.




Ha! No wonder we are in such a mess!!


----------



## MichaelD (28 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I discovered through recent investigations (which you know about G) that there is a whole world out there who have:
> 
> 1/ a vested interest in dissing TA
> 2/ been indoctrinated into regarding it as voodoo
> ...




I'm biting - but see next comment.



wayneL said:


> What random walkers fail to realize is that the random walk hypothesis and technical analysis are not incongruent with each other. They are two sides to the same coin. Just differing philosophy on the exploitation of price.




I completely agree with you on this point, which makes your first points all the more fascinating - care to expand on them a little?


----------



## MRC & Co (28 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Ha! No wonder we are in such a mess!!






Well they listen to advice about............0% of the time!   

Not that my advice would make much difference!  lol.

Agree with the EW target by Nick though, fundamentally, I would think the low 4000s sometime within the next year would be a fair call.


----------



## white_goodman (28 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Here is the weekly chart we've been working with. If symmetry is to be made then 4200 is the target...
> 
> 
> 
> ...





thank god im half way thru your book, its starting to all make sense...


----------



## white_goodman (28 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Well they listen to advice about............0% of the time!
> 
> Not that my advice would make much difference!  lol.
> 
> Agree with the EW target by Nick though, fundamentally, I would think the low 4000s sometime within the next year would be a fair call.




are you from an economics background? yes im new


----------



## Muschu (28 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> ..... I would think the low 4000s sometime within the next year would be a fair call.




That's quite a long time-frame but, given this volatility, maybe it is impossible to say otherwise.  

Oh well..... Must keep smiling.


----------



## davo8 (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Most of what is happening now, is still lagging into the data.
> 
> Just for the sake of it, here is a piece I wrote a few years ago.  Feel free to attempt to rip it to shreds those who enjoy their economics.  If you want the graphs I am referring too, I can post them up seperately, but theres quiet a few of them.




I'm broadly familiar with these arguments. There is another argument that because of these lags and political considerations, governments generally make things worse. Governments should make and enforce the rules, but not try to "tune" or "drive" the cycle.

However, the present situation is not an ordinary cycle. We have had a lengthy period of unusual credit expansion, which is now unwinding along classical "Austrian" lines. Government intervention in the USA is almost certainly making things worse in the long run, but is inevitable. RBA raising rates here will probably precipitate credit unwinding, which will be painful but is also inevitable. Our children may again buy houses for 3-4x incomes.

We have now had a further piece of bad news: the ANZ and I repeat: there is more to come. Banks have made bad investments and have now lost their primary means of generating income. The consequences will be severe. Platitudes about our banks being "safe" are meaningless.

I thought I would own CBA forever. I now doubt I will ever own it again.


----------



## davo8 (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I discovered through recent investigations (which you know about G) that there is a whole world out there who have:
> 1/ a vested interest in dissing TA
> 2/ been indoctrinated into regarding it as voodoo
> 3/ has had the purpose of TA misrepresented to them
> ...




I have no vested interest and I draw my own conclusions. Much of TA (including some in this forum) is voodoo. It relies on making predictions that are vague enough they can be justified after the event, but are not scientifically testable. I am happy to put money on that.

Random walk is even worse: it predicts nothing and is routinely proven wrong even when it does that!

TA is a useful guide to (a) what the market thinks is going to happen (b) what some knowledgeable individuals are doing in the market. The challenge for proponents of TA is to know when to stop. 

History is a better guide to the long-term behaviour of markets than EW or Kondratiev or whatever. The last crash is a better guide to this crash than any levels you can draw on graph paper.


----------



## wayneL (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> It relies on making predictions that are vague enough they can be justified after the event,




This is where TA gets seriously and intentionally misrepresented. Apart from the esoteric schools of Gann & EW (and even then I'm not so sure they are supposed to predict), it does not "predict", nor does it rely on any prediction. It deals in probabilities and expectancy, thus is probably closer to game theory.

The big problem is that the vast bulk of TAers don't understand this either, and probably explains the failure rate.


----------



## wayneL (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MichaelD said:


> I'm biting - but see next comment.
> 
> I completely agree with you on this point, which makes your first points all the more fascinating - care to expand on them a little?



Michael,

I had occasion to walk into the world of financial planning and have a bloody good sniff around.

I walked out unimpressed and underwhelmed (apart from the cash these bastards manage to skim from the financially inept).

While I was in the devils den, I was exposed to various financial propaganda as espoused by Satan's spawn. Part of that is a completely pre-emptive campaign against charting of any description; mouthing such hollow and easily disprovable nonsense such as "there is no such thing as a rich chartist". Baaaaaaaahhh!

Whether technical analysis is suitable for any individual - and for the vast majority of FPs and their clients, it isn't - is beside the point.

(**)In the absence of genuine financial knowledge, analytical skills, ethics and morals, about the only thing FPs rely have to sell, is *perception*.

It is the perception that they are knowledgeable is what these clowns try to promulgate. They do this by:

1/ Baffling clients with bullsh!t, random walk theory, EMH, fancy software projections etc.

2/ Undermining any kind of intellectual competition, particularly that which seeks to educate their clients enough to think they can do it themselves.

3/ Undermining any sort of financial activity that requires regular low commission attendance to an individuals portfolio (options are a big no-no, also see (**) above). This takes away time they should be pitching to new clients.

Hence TA or any sort of active trading/investing is totally against the FPs self interest... they'd probably screw it up anyway.

This is where the Time in rather than Timing the market comes from. They don't want to see the client after they have secured their commissions, except maybe once a year to try and churn the portfolio a bit.

These attitudes become entrenched in the FP community and take on the form of dogma. They are repeatedly mouthed without any thought as to their accuracy, it is simply a mantra that they don't realize is BS.

Don't get me wrong, many FPs are very genuine, but it is simply the environment they live in. Few are worth a cracker.

There, rant over.


----------



## wavepicker (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> I thought I would own CBA forever. I now doubt I will ever own it again.




That's the sort of pessimism that hints to me that we are approaching a market bottom of sorts. Not necessarily THE bottom, but probably a major one.

Sentiment and EW or even most other TA for that matter go hand in hand. 

It's a far cry from the  hyper bullish cries on these boards 12 months ago!!

Cheers


----------



## MRC & Co (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> I'm broadly familiar with these arguments. There is another argument that because of these lags and political considerations, governments generally make things worse. Governments should make and enforce the rules, but not try to "tune" or "drive" the cycle.
> 
> However, the present situation is not an ordinary cycle.




lol, that other argument is exactly what I wrote.  See the conclusive paragraph.  But agreed, we are not in an ordinary cycle, far far from it and one reason I throw much seasonality out the window at the moment.

White_Goodman, yes, from an economics background.  That being said, short-term, T/A is FAR more useful than any form of fundamental analysis. 

Wayne, don't get me started on Financial Planners.  After finishing Uni and working in my field, I went on to study a Diploma of Financial Services (RG146), and let me say, recieving good results at Uni, I never failed one piece of assessment.  With the diploma, I went on in my assignment advising 'clients' that property and bank equities were NOT 'low risk investments', and to perhaps write covered calls against their bank stocks if they want to continue to hold for the longer-term.  I also stated voluntary superannuation contributions were not the most 'effective' and 'efficient' form of investment for a couple to make.  Needless to say, I was failed, options were too risky, bank stocks and property are traditionally 'low-risk' and hence, shall therefore remain so, whilst superannuation is the golden arches of financial advice.  WTF!!!!!  Also needless to say, I will never complete this rediculous diploma.  

Other than that, agree with everything Wayne said.  Not to mention, time in the market is all well and good, whilst you are in a period of industrialization and economic boom times.  What macro or micro policies can really make much of a difference to economic growth/productivity, other than perhaps technological improvements?  Add in an ageing population and soaring inflation, wiping out much nominal growth, what is left for the long-term?  Golden era in the West is over IMO.  Time in the markets mantra may be all but over and long-term investments and stockbrokers may be replaced by active trading firms, hence, a move towards hedge funds already.  

WP, last sentiment pole I looked at and the one I actually find the most useful, had more bulls than bears at last weekly release.


----------



## the bard (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Aaarrgh!!Oh the pain!!


----------



## wavepicker (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> WP, last sentiment pole I looked at and the one I actually find the most useful, had more bulls than bears at last weekly release.




Which one was it?? Was it referencing Aussie market or US market?  Can you post it?

Was also just commenting on Davo's comments more than anything.


----------



## MRC & Co (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Which one was it?? Was it referencing Aussie market or US market?  Can you post it?




I used lowrisk and tickersense (cheaper than Barrons   and I hear just as reliable).  

I find tickersense a LOT more accurate and the only one I now use.


----------



## CamKawa (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting site.
http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/blogger_sentiment_poll/index.html


----------



## MichaelD (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hmmm - the lead story on ABC news this evening - the stock market horrors.

Capitulation tomorrow anyone?


----------



## tex.willer (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MichaelD said:


> Hmmm - the lead story on ABC news this evening - the stock market horrors.
> 
> Capitulation tomorrow anyone?




Capitulation tomorrow???

Very optimistic ... When our jobless rate increases, the real deleveraging will occur and the bottom in the market.

As a side note, check this out

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200807/s2310191.htm


----------



## Beej (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> Capitulation tomorrow???
> 
> Very optimistic ... When our jobless rate increases, the real deleveraging will occur and the bottom in the market.
> 
> ...




And conversly - check this out:

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200807/s2313890.htm

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## white_goodman (29 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> Capitulation tomorrow???
> 
> Very optimistic ... When our jobless rate increases, the real deleveraging will occur and the bottom in the market.
> 
> ...




10-15 years for the next bull market? is that how log a typical cycle is in equities...in property from high to high or low to low they say roughly 7


----------



## davo8 (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> That's the sort of pessimism that hints to me that we are approaching a market bottom of sorts. Not necessarily THE bottom, but probably a major one.
> 
> Sentiment and EW or even most other TA for that matter go hand in hand.




Then you'd be seriously misguided, or at least rather naive. My message on banks has been consistent for months, and I see no reason yet to change. This is like a python that swallowed a goat. So far, the goat is not even half way through, and we can't tell if the python will survive.

The basics of how banks make money has been severely and permanently damaged. I expect most of our banks to announce reductions in EPS, with further falls in price, before we see anything like a bottom.

TA can't tell you that, because the market as a whole hasn't worked it out yet. You can scratch a living momentum trading as the knowledge diffuses through the market, but you only get the leavings.

To make a serious killing you only need do 2 things. One, bet heavily against the market; and two, be right.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> You can scratch a living momentum trading as the knowledge diffuses through the market, but you only get the leavings.
> 
> To make a serious killing you only need do 2 things. One, bet heavily against the market; and two, be right.



I love it!! An expert in other peoples methods. So much so that he knows how much I scratch out.


----------



## wayneL (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I love it!! An expert in other peoples methods. So much so that he knows how much I scratch out.




Haha! You beat me to it TH.

...and confirmation of what I've written above.


----------



## nomore4s (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I love it!! An expert in other peoples methods. So much so that he knows how much I scratch out.




lol, If I don't understand or use it, there's no way it can work!:

Don't you know there's no such thing as a rich TA or day trader.:


----------



## wavepicker (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> TA can't tell you that, because the market as a whole hasn't worked it out yet. You can scratch a living momentum trading as the knowledge diffuses through the market, but you only get the leavings.
> 
> To make a serious killing you only need do 2 things. One, bet heavily against the market; and two, be right.





Davo, 

Unfortunately you are very wrong with those comments. Go to the link below and read the charts I posted on ANZ late last year, days before ANZ started this multi month decline. Not only did I trade the move(mind you I was not heavily against the market), but it was against a trend that had lasted for years,  *T/A WAS RIGHT* PS: that trade did help heavily to my account.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=215962&postcount=49

Voodoo, fluke, lucky guess?????  Or just taking a high probablility trade offering a good risk/reward. 

More importantly we are coming into a historic low in the next few weeks IMO

Did your Random Walk analysis alert you that a huge decline was about to start? Of course not


Cheers


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Then you'd be seriously misguided, or at least rather naive.



Well, lump me in the poor misguided naive camp too.  I agree with WPs sentiments there. Catch ya, gotta get back to the taxi...


----------



## theasxgorilla (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ladies and gentlemen,

This is a polite reminder that this is the XAO analysis thread.  All methods of analysis are welcome but please refrain from pie throwing regarding whose method is most valid.

Thanks,

ASX.G


----------



## sam76 (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

what was the dip all about?


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Someone fat fingered QBE at $0.02
Then the SPI went nuts.!!


----------



## korrupt_1 (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thought it was something sinister with my CFD provider....

So, whats the go when someone fat fingers an order? Is it reversible? Or does someone gets into very very big troubles?


----------



## doogie_goes_off (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What - they accidentally sold at $0.02 ??? WTF, I was confused at the dip myself but it's a little funny. Most traders have one bad stuff up, but a share like this at 2c, must have a useless broker!


----------



## Snakey (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

double or triple bottoms of 4900 we need to see a break down to at least a close of 4800 to confirm a lower bottom. here we are entring the 8 month of this downturn and still no bottom in sight imo. 
1 month is my time frame for the bottom. 

any one else like to give there forecast timeframe for the bottom?


----------



## sam76 (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Error wipes QBE out

QBE's share price 

July 30, 2008 - 3:13PM 

The sharemarket plunged 100 points this afternoon after an error in a sell order effectively wiped QBE Insurance off the ASX-200 index.

A trader error in a sell order sold 500,000 QBE shares at 1/10th of a cent. Stock in QBE, which opened at $23.09, plummeted to near worthless for eight minutes on the exchange.

"Clearly this was an accident,"  said Australian Securities Exchange spokesman Matthew Gibbs.

The exchange's dispute committee met quickly after the plunge, he said, and cancelled all orders for QBE stock that priced it $22.20 and under.

"Because the price error was so drastic, it effectively removed the stock from the index," he said.

QBE Insurance had no comment on the market event.


----------



## gav (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What will happen to the poor person who made that mistake? 

What is stopping me from buying 1,000,000 BHP shares (that i cannot afford), waiting for it to go up 10cents then selling the lot 1hr later?  And if it backfires, just say it was a typo as I meant to buy 1,000 shares?


----------



## TheAbyss (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gav said:


> What will happen to the poor person who made that mistake?
> 
> What is stopping me from buying 1,000,000 BHP shares (that i cannot afford), waiting for it to go up 10cents then selling the lot 1hr later?  And if it backfires, just say it was a typo as I meant to buy 1,000 shares?




The fact that you do not have the money/equity in your account will stop most individuals. If you are in the employ of someone with an account large enough or are fortunate enough to have 40 mill in your acc, then nothing as that is a legitamte tactic if you care to risk it and you can find someoone willing to buy $40 mill worth of BHP in a session (or about 14% of a days trading)

Either way i cant see you getting your money back as 10 cents is a small fraction of the BHP sp so not really a legit error. Try selling them at 3.90 a shae instead of $39.00 and you might get your money back


----------



## steven1234 (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"Trader error" my a$$.  

I think its just another tactic used to drive sentiment down and induce selling.  

Does anyone know where where i can find a chart that would show index volumes so i can confirm whether my theory that the instutitions cleaned up with buys after the so called "trader error"


----------



## CamKawa (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is QBE for today.


----------



## steven1234 (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What about the index overall. 

I'm sure many would have expected the worst and sold off on the drop.  Someone must have been buying if the indext didn't drop off.


----------



## professor_frink (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



steven1234 said:


> "Trader error" my a$$.
> 
> I think its just another tactic used to drive sentiment down and induce selling.
> 
> Does anyone know where where i can find a chart that would show index volumes so i can confirm whether my theory that the instutitions cleaned up with buys after the so called "trader error"




all trades below 22.20 were canned.


----------



## davo8 (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Unfortunately you are very wrong with those comments. Go to the link below and read the charts I posted on ANZ late last year, days before ANZ started this multi month decline. Not only did I trade the move(mind you I was not heavily against the market), but it was against a trend that had lasted for years,  *T/A WAS RIGHT* PS: that trade did help heavily to my account.
> 
> More importantly we are coming into a historic low in the next few weeks IMO
> 
> Did your Random Walk analysis alert you that a huge decline was about to start? Of course not




I genuinely hope that you made a pile of money, but you were late. 

I have no truck with random walk, but on purely fundamental grounds the decline in financial stocks was clearly signalled from around Sep 07, and the recent losses of NAB and ANZ were clearly visible back to Feb/Mar 08, when they under-provisioned.

You may find that banks are tradeable right now, but I tell you with certainty that they are not investable. Ben Graham wouldn't touch them and neither shall I.

Historic low: maybe, but not a bottom. For that you'll probably have to wait 12 months. I'll post a piece of Belkin as an example of what I'm expecting.


----------



## davo8 (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Most global stock indexes have decisively broken below their 200 week moving averages, which is a major trend reversal. The intermediate term (3 month) and long term (12 month) model forecasts point down. We recommend taking advantage of every minor rally to close long positions, go short and shift out of tech and cyclicals into defensive groups. Stock indexes haven’t yet had the big surge in volatility (5% daily NASDAQ moves down and up amidst a declining market). That is probably approaching. Bear market trading is typically more productive selling into those big percentage bounces, rather than selling into big declines and then watching the market bounce back in your face.
> 
> Potential downside targets after a 200 week average breakdown are 1) the 200 month average and 2) The previous 2002-2003 lows. Those levels are 25%-47% below current levels for most stock indexes. U.S. financial indexes are already there (BKX, XLF). So don’t think it can’t happen for the broader market and other currently elevated indexes, stocks and groups.”
> 
> ...




For the ASX that means below 4000.


----------



## wavepicker (30 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> For the ASX that means below 4000.





Hey davo, I thought you classified TA as Voodoo???
 The Belkin Report is telling us what we already knew 6 months a go, a major trend reversal!!  Talk about a lagging indicator commentator!!


----------



## professor_frink (31 July 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> For the ASX that means below 4000.




If we get that low, I'll be backing the truck up and opening up the bottom drawer


----------



## wavepicker (3 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

August is here and the next few weeks look like they might be very interesting IMO with some good opportunities coming up.

Firstly as mentioned in my last post I think this leg down will find a low between 8th and 15th August. July 24th was expected to be significant from weeks earlier and it ended up marking the high of the last countertrend up.(Although back then was not sure it would mark a high or a low) This was using fixed cyles analysis

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...postcount=3837


I have been looking at the monthly Cyclic Analysis and it concurs that we the 4686-4690 area was a reasonable probability of ending this leg down. The previous Monthly Cycle Analysis (see link below) on the 25/6/08 hinted we had much further to move down with all cycles pointed hard down.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...postcount=3747

In the current monthly analysis we have reached the upper band below the nominal , a level which has held rock solid support for the last 25 years. That is not to say it will hold but neverthless interesting. The 1 year cycle has bottomed and the 2 year cycle appears to be reaching a low. The 4 year cycle has a fair way to go, but a low in it does not necessarily have to coincide with a low in price as mentioned in earlier postings. In fact if this market continued net sideways for another 3 years that 4 year cycle could continue falling and reach and bottom.

In the shorter term SP500 daily chart shows pretty much the same, the 1 year cycle coming into a low and with the 45 and 120 day cycles appear to be bottoming in the next few weeks.

There is much pessimism about the place ATM, everyone is saying how bad things are going to get(just look at the financial press headlines). Not saying that they are wrong, eventually things might end up deteriorating, but this negative sentiment from a contrarian perspective when combined with the message hinted in the charts I have posted might give enough evidence that a rally could be in the making starting in the weeks ahead.

Will be interesting to see what pans out.

Cheers


----------



## Porper (3 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> August is here and the next few weeks look like they might be very interesting IMO with some good opportunities coming up.
> 
> Firstly as mentioned in my last post I think this leg down will find a low between 8th and 15th August. July 24th was expected to be significant from weeks earlier and it ended up marking the high of the last countertrend up.(Although back then was not sure it would mark a high or a low) This was using fixed cyles analysis
> 
> ...




Very interesting Wavepicker,

I have had the 19th August as significant for a while as per my last posted chart

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=22696&d=1216942866

This is using time cycle ratios, fixed time cycles, ratios of various swing relationships and giving a cluster zone.We then narrow this zone as best we can giving a high probability zone for a reversal.

However, whichever count I use (and there are 3) I get this last low on the 16th July as significant, and unlikely to get broken short term.Going by market sentiment this seems highly unlikely, however we must stick to the analysis and not let outside fundamentals get in the way.If this is dissproved we can then ammend the count to the most likely scenario.

The chart of the DOW is giving an even stronger signal that the July low is unlikely to be broken short term.On that I have a bounce up to 12000 before a possible break to the downside.There is exceptionally strong support going right back to 1999 around our recent lows.


----------



## explod (3 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Based on fundamentals I believe that the stock market correction in the medimu to longer term has only just begun.   As some analysts (who predicted this down turn accurately up to 5 years ago) have said, "what we have now is just the ringing of the bell for the start of the game".  Another said, "we are just up to the National Anthem.

However putting all that aside, have the wave analysts put the ruler over the period of 1929 through to 1932, in which time some markets dropped up to 90% ??

Some predict, with fundamental support, that this time will be worse.


----------



## Porper (3 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Based on fundamentals I believe that the stock market correction in the medimu to longer term has only just begun.   As some analysts (who predicted this down turn accurately up to 5 years ago) have said, "what we have now is just the ringing of the bell for the start of the game".  Another said, "we are just up to the National Anthem.
> 
> However putting all that aside, have the wave analysts put the ruler over the period of 1929 through to 1932, in which time some markets dropped up to 90% ??
> 
> Some predict, with fundamental support, that this time will be worse.




You always get extreme views Explode, from those that say we are at a bottom to some suggesting triple figures for the DOW.

One thing is for sure, if this is to be the worst Bear market ever and we get the DOW to 900 or whatever it doesn't matter whether you have money in cash, Gold or pidgeon Pooh, the world as we know it will have self destructed.

One person sharing this view is Prechter and Elliot Wave International.They are encouraging subscribers to take out all cash with American banks and put it in Swiss banks or safe overseas bamks where it is safer....supposedly.Mind you he has been predicting Armageddon for so many years it is not funny.To me he has now lost all credibility.

We are getting extreme pessimism now from the media and Joe public.Maybe a sign that the end of the downturn is nearing ? or maybe we will self destruct, who knows.


----------



## explod (3 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> You always get extreme views Explode, from those that say we are at a bottom to some suggesting triple figures for the DOW.
> 
> One thing is for sure, if this is to be the worst Bear market ever and we get the DOW to 900 or whatever it doesn't matter whether you have money in cash, Gold or pidgeon Pooh, the world as we know it will have self destructed.
> 
> ...




On the contrary, there is a lot of optimism as well.   Many are saying interest rates will drop here in Aus., soon so our troubles are over.

If you want to seriously consider some of the economic signals from back then and the reasoning behind the rationale you may learn that the projection of armaggeddon was soundly based on good economic fundamentals.   And in the final take it is very simple, we have been spending more than we have earnt.  Of course the tricks to try and put the day of reckoning off are merely making the final outcome worse.  The predictors who may have called it too early probably would never believe that there would be so much lying jawboning and cheating of the people by world banks to do so.   The world is at tipping point now with oil, food and lack of production against the value of money, not to mention dreadful drought in many places where large populations are starving as we speak.

Nice to live in Fairy Land I know, but if one is to survive financially one has to have the eyes wide open.


----------



## Porper (3 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> The world is at tipping point now with oil, food and lack of production against the value of money, not to mention dreadful drought in many places where large populations are starving as we speak..




Large populations have been starving for ever explod, nothing new here.That is the world we live in.Greed rules.







explod said:


> Nice to live in Fairy Land I know, but if one is to survive financially one has to have the eyes wide open.




If one is to do more than "just survive" you must also have your eyes open.

I will repeat myself, if things are as bad as you make out Explod and as suggested the Dow makes 3 figures no matter what you do it won't make a scrap of difference how you measure your money, it will be almost worthless, as will your Gold, barrels of oil or whatever else you think has monetary value.

Yes, we all know the world has spent more than it has earnt, what we don't know is how all this is going to pan out in the next decade, that includes yourself, who has no idea also, just like everybody else, all you have is an opinion.


----------



## wavepicker (3 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Guys,

I don't think anybody knows if this is a secular bear or not. Notice in the post I said the market maybe coming into a low *for this leg down*.
In earlier posts based on *EW Law of Alternation*, I and Nick Radge mentioned we might be in for a sideways market for a number of years. 

There are other possibilites, YES we could have a prolonged downward trend, but ATM I as a trader are focusing on the short to medium swings and as always take it one move at a time. Probabilities now favour a rally come mid August, a tradeable rally and that is what I am concerned with.

Explod, who are these analysts who predicted the start of this bear market from 5 years ago. I would like to read their comments they posted 5 years ago that this index(XAO) or an other index would reach 6800+ in November 07. 
If they got these numbers right then they (and YOU) with such an accurate Crystal must be must be mega rich right??? My experience in the past(and I know rederob disagrees) is that fundementals lag the market. When the subprime problem first surfaced last year in August the market tanked and then rose to new highs in November. It's only now after the market has sold off dramamtically how fundemntally bad this issue has become. BUT the market moved first. If things are to improve in the near future, the market will move first and then the fundemental good news will surface months after. ATM all we hear is bad news in the financial press, and at the market peak last year it was good news.


Pete, thanks for comments and analysis. It's great our number/analysis line up. We have done our hard work, hopefully soon the market is playing ball with our thoughts and decides to work for us too!!

Cheers


----------



## explod (3 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Large populations have been starving for ever explod, nothing new here.That is the world we live in.Greed rules.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Not so, having grown up on the land I know that one can survive providing there is a reasonable water source.  I do have a plan through all of this for myself and family.

Overpopulation of humans is a new slant to this planet and starvation on the current scale is greater (by sheer numbers) than ever before.

20% of the US population is also living under the poverty line.    I could go on and on but dont' need to.  Have checked the fundementals that I need to be reasonably aware.   And I am never certain of anything as things change, but I am ready to make the changes as required.   I have and can survive sleeping under a barbed wire fence, few others will be able to.   It may not come to that, but ready.  And there will allways be alternative investments that will rise, this is just knowing human needs and greed.

I never spoke of a Dow at 900, I do know that we have real problems going forward and IN MY OPINION (Opinion only) there is a long way to the bottom of this yet.


----------



## explod (3 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Explod, who are these analysts who predicted the start of this bear market from 5 years ago. I would like to read their comments they posted 5 years ago that this index(XAO) or an other index would reach 6800+ in November 07.
> If they got these numbers right then they (and YOU) with such an accurate Crystal must be must be mega rich right??? My experience in the past(and I know rederob disagrees) is that fundementals lag the market. When the subprime problem first surfaced last year in August the market tanked and then rose to new highs in November. It's only now after the market has sold off dramamtically how fundemntally bad this issue has become. BUT the market moved first. If things are to improve in the near future, the market will move first and then the fundemental good news will surface months after. ATM all we hear is bad news in the financial press, and at the market peak last year it was good news.




I have no crystal ball and have been out of the market for 12 months except for 2 gold specs I hold for the longer term.    My physical gold and silver, (45% of my invetment holdings) are up 40% since this time last year.   

Just follow a long term simple fundamental.  And when the taxi driver starts to tell me about gold I will be out very quick.   When gold hit $US1000 it was recently stated it did not even make it onto the front business page of the Wall Street Journal, that will apparently be another sign to sell.

The books, I have quoted many times.  All out on loan at this time but two titles off the top of my head,  "Financial Armageddon" (2006)  and "How to Survive the Crash"(2002)   Have been particularly accurate on the failure of the US banks and fall of the US dollar.


----------



## Porper (3 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> I have and can survive sleeping under a barbed wire fence, few others will be able to.   It may not come to that, but ready.






There will be a lot of warning before things get that bad that I have to live under a barbed wire fence.Maybe I should go and buy a roll just incase 

As we cannot give advice on ASF I wont say please lighten up and stop worrying about something that is highly unlikely to happen.

More reason to enjoy life while you can Explode before Armageddon hits.


----------



## wavepicker (3 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> My physical gold and silver, (45% of my invetment holdings) are up 40% since this time last year.




Traded against USD Physical is approx 40% compared to last year. Traded against the AUD it's only up 18.5%. You have probably made a  lot less than you think, sorry to dissapoint.



explod said:


> The books, I have quoted many times.  All out on loan at this time but two titles off the top of my head,  "Financial Armageddon" (2006)  and "How to Survive the Crash"(2002)   Have been particularly accurate on the failure of the US banks and fall of the US dollar.





Yes but did they say at what level the indices (Dow Jones or SP500) would topout and when implod??? You did not answer the question.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (3 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Based on fundamentals I believe that the stock market correction in the medimu to longer term has only just begun.   As some analysts (who predicted this down turn accurately up to 5 years ago) have said, "what we have now is just the ringing of the bell for the start of the game".  Another said, "we are just up to the National Anthem.
> 
> However putting all that aside, have the wave analysts put the ruler over the period of 1929 through to 1932, in which time some markets dropped up to 90% ??
> 
> Some predict, with fundamental support, that this time will be worse.




5 years ago was 2003 the start of the bull market. so these guys were calling a bear market before a bull had even got going my god these guys are good!

Do you have their contact number Explod? I want to call and make sure tomorrow is not my last day on earth and i should stay home under my bed!


----------



## Whiskers (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How certain of your (big picture) count are you EW'ers?

Most of you seem to think we are in a significant wave four.

Here's a controversial thought for you!

Mind you I'm inclined to think it's right, even thought I don't yet have detailed accurate charts going right back, I started from the beginning and worked more mathematically to arrive at this proposition on a rough line chart.

What if we made a blow off top for the end of Super Cycle one last year and we have now put in the bottom of the first Super Cycle wave two?

A short sharp correction of about 29% to the bottom the other day would qualify for the bottom.


----------



## wavepicker (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> How certain of your (big picture) count are you EW'ers?
> 
> Most of you seem to think we are in a significant wave four.
> 
> ...




Anything is possible Whiskers. I suppose no one can answer this question can they until the market gives us a few more clues in the years ahead?


----------



## Porper (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> How certain of your (big picture) count are you EW'ers?
> 
> Most of you seem to think we are in a significant wave four.
> 
> ...




When does your count start from Whiskers ?

This wave 2 (if it is ) isn't even a year old yet so we must have some sort of equality in waves.Also 29% for a wave 2 is very short, a wave 4 of 29% would be better 

But in exceptional times like these you can get strange price action so text book counts can go out of the window, maybe put up a chart and we can have a look.


----------



## explod (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> 5 years ago was 2003 the start of the bull market. so these guys were calling a bear market before a bull had even got going my god these guys are good!
> 
> Do you have their contact number Explod? I want to call and make sure tomorrow is not my last day on earth and i should stay home under my bed!




You and many others forget the big picture.    There was a general bull to the Dot.com bubble.   If you look at the 10 year Dow Chart you will see that the 2002/03 rise coincided with the US fed feeding cheap money into the system.  The huge run up in the Dow was built on cheap borrowed money.  Any good economist worth his salt recognised this and could see the folly.  As I stated yesterday it was beyond incredible that the US Govt and the Fed could fool the sheeple for so long.

In 03 the Dow was 7,500     On what has been revealed of late the real value will be very much below that.

And a few explode'sions now and again is good for reality.   Waves, go for it, it is all usefull.    My Dad held his cattle in the tought times and sold in the good.   He certainly looked at the trends and cycles but not in isolation.  This thread is about the whole picture of the XAO.

Short term if you like but be ready for anything in this market.


----------



## brty (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi,

If I've uploaded it correctly, the following graph shows the performance of the XAO over the last 107 years (retrospectively calculated prior to 1980). What is noticeable is that the fall from 70-74 was greater for our market than the 29-32 crash. 

Apart from those 2 events, plus the 87 crash where the market fell 45-55%, there have been 5 other occasions where the market fell 25-36%. Also noticeable is that on most occasions the major falls occurred in the first year from the top.

brty


----------



## CamKawa (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is a monthly chart of XAO back to 1979. As you can see we have some way to go yet before XAO gets back to it's trend line, let alone become oversold.


----------



## CamKawa (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

With XAO being heavily influenced by the DOW I'd thought I'd post a long term monthly chart of it. Do you notice anything different about the last 2 decades? Possibly a bit deleveraging ahead of us maybe?


----------



## tcoates (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think that chart (below) should use a log scale...

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=^DJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=ohlc;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=1;logscale=on;source=undefined


Tim


----------



## Whiskers (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> When does your count start from Whiskers ?
> 
> This wave 2 (if it is ) isn't even a year old yet so we must have some sort of equality in waves.Also 29% for a wave 2 is very short, a wave 4 of 29% would be better




Porper, I went back to the 1860's when the first stock exchange was setup in Melbourne. So far I only have a rough monthly line chart from the 1900's and some literature about a couple of significant corrections between the 1860's and 1900. So it's a bit presumptious, but since I haven't seen an EW count going back that far, I thought it worth a quick mainly mathematical exercise and a question.

I was rather hoping someone had a count from the very beginning, to save me the trouble... cos I'm quite a devils advocate, even of my own reasoning... rarely take anything for granted if I can analyise it for myself.

The thing that prompted me to query the big picture count is that I saw a promo EWI video dated mid june on oil and they seemed to be fully expecting the minor and intermediate counts of the last primary leg to go well past $160.

The other thing that I understand Elliott originally did was marry his FA with his EW count to get the most probable count.

I'll see if I can get some sort of a chart pre 1900 and label it up.



> But in exceptional times like these you can get strange price action so text book counts can go out of the window, maybe put up a chart and we can have a look.




My point precisely. Since EW is becoming more widely known and used it seems to me that if large institutions used it and with the amount of money that's been floating around the last decade or so, one should at least consider the possibility that they might exploit EW, thus distort the original EW rules, after all that's what human nature usually does with rules.


----------



## motorway (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> My point precisely. Since EW is becoming more widely known and used it seems to me that if large institutions used it and with the amount of money that's been floating around the last decade or so, one should at least consider the possibility that they might exploit EW, thus distort the original EW rules, after all that's what human nature usually does with rules.







> “I had heard about technical analysis and chart patterns, and looking at this stuff I would say, what kind of voodoo is this? I was very, very skeptical that technical analysis had value. So I used the computers to check it out, and what I learned was that there was, in fact, no useful reality there. Statistically and mathematically all these tools ”” stochastics, RSI, chart patterns, Elliot Wave, and so on ”” just don’t work.
> 
> If you code any of these rigorously into a computer and test them they produce no statistical basis for making money; they’re just wishful thinking. But I did find one thing that worked. In fact almost all technical analysis can be reduced to this one thing, though most people don’t realize it"
> 
> ...




and that is before "they" are considered 

IE: He also said he found EW very useful and "these guys"  should not be discouraged.

IF it boils down to "one thing"
That usually ends up being two things
That the "one thing" results from.

motorway


----------



## wavepicker (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> This is a monthly chart of XAO back to 1979. As you can see we have some way to go yet before XAO gets back to it's trend line, let alone become oversold.




Is it a necessity to reach that trendline though? Is the trendline an accurate level of where prices should regress to? I guess sometimes it is and sometimes it isn't. If you look at the correction of the DJIA from 2000-2003 when it lost 39% it didn't even come close to touching that trendline.

It maybe that the market does not reach that long term trendline on this leg down, in fact probabilities favour that it won't.


----------



## CamKawa (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*




wavepicker said:


> Is it a necessity to reach that trendline though?




Maybe not.




wavepicker said:


> Is the trendline an accurate level of where prices should regress to?.



Leonardo Fibonacci may disagree with me. I've added the retracements to the chart. Though I don't think XAO lends itself to Fibonacci analysis very well.




wavepicker said:


> I guess sometimes it is and sometimes it isn't. If you look at the correction of the DJIA from 2000-2003 when it lost 39% it didn't even come close to touching that trendline.



I think the US economy has the potential to be in more trouble now than it was during the dot com crash and thus feel a bigger correction could be on the cards. I'm preparing myself for the worst possible outcome and hoping I'm wrong.


----------



## motorway (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Is it a necessity to reach that trendline though? Is the trendline an accurate level of where prices should regress to?




Well it could reach that trendline at any time or no time

IE...It could reach it when the index is above  7000

eg in ten years time when ever or when never

Just keep projecting the line forward

I bet ( have not looked ) that GM in USA  has regressed back to old ( very old ? ) trend lines...

But all that is beside the point ?

A trendline must be kept sensitive

A number of factors

eg square root of time just one..

motorway


----------



## Nick Radge (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have data back to 1875 but have not put a count to it as yet.

This is the count I have been using since 1954 that I have discussed earlier in this post within my March 2007 Special Report. I stand by that view, that is, we should see a very similar period like we did from 1988 through 1993. 





_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## wavepicker (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Well it could reach that trendline at any time or no time
> 
> IE...It could reach it when the index is above  7000
> 
> ...





Trendlines need to be constantly adjusted as they are too rigid and not dynamic enough. Under certain circumtances a trendline channel can be quite useful, especially in EW.

I prefer the use of constant width envelopes myself using centered moving averages with the span set by the determined dominant cycle. (see below ont he XAO Monthly chart) The envelopes extrapolated forward hint at a signficant countertrend sometime soon.

Already it has been demonstrated by various cycle techniques (both fixed and dynamic that this rally is due).Cycles are real, they exist in the market. The hard part is finding the significant cycles to use.

Another technique that adds to the confluence of the previously stated 4600-4800 target zone is by the use of a half span centered average. If we are currently running a 48 span cycle on monthly chart( 48 bar centered MA) then it's half span(24 centered MA) when extrapolated forward by eyeballing should give us a target of approx 4656.(this technique i used to pinpoint low in Gold in 2006)  I have previously mentioned the 4686-4691 level has a strong fib cluster. This may or may not be significant but, there seems to be similar messages from varying techniques around these levels

Cheers


----------



## motorway (4 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wave I see by the widening of your channel

That it is adaptive
and is tracking the "action"
to some extent
and giving a definition of high and low

But is the lookback dynamic or static ?

I see cycles as structural but not periodic !

Here is one of My main charts of the XAO

We have congestion
( the most important aspect)

OK another word for congestion is "FULL"

what alternates with FULL ? is Emptiness

Now which way ?

We need to identify light or heavy

and then is the element of "time"

The movement from dullness to activity

We can all clearly see the pattern ( OF P,V & T )
and what happened at the last "juncture"

This is even more significant juncture
( more congestion, the full is fuller  )

There would seem to be significant overhead resistance
and support is "distant" (  a lot of fluctuations separate. )

between the 7 ( July ) and the first bottom
is a very preservating pattern DOWN

It is a "battle formation" ( is it already dissipated ? )

note how significant the objective resistance line ( 45 degree ) 
has become ( as last time ).

Full Empty

beware empty

But we need to see lightness 
in order to go long

If going long the XAO
a point of negation ( stop loss point ) is clearly defined...

But I would not be going long atm
if the XAO was a stock

the entire pattern links up
to give significant downside objectives

( hint.. these are not the fluctuations of a coin toss
these fluctuations are all connected )

If the trend line is penetrated
a key word ( from the P&F literature )
& question

is ostensible
the opposite of which is profound 

motorway


----------



## Whiskers (5 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What I have done here is I have used Nicks raw chart for clarity, since it seems I agree with Nick on his wave (1) and (2) points and I agree with WP that the top of 1987 is a wave one... but we all differ from there. 

The most significant difference is where I place my cycle *III*.

Yeah, I know you say wave threes cannot be the shortest... in this case by about 13 points from memory, about .5%. Is'nt that a bit trivial when you consider that there's at least an element of arbitraryness in the rules.

Why I place it there is partly about what I mentioned in the earlier post and that notion of 'proportion' and a bit about something motorway alluded to... but we'll let ya all work that one out for yerselves. :

... and because Nicks leg (3) is a staggering 15 times leg (1) in price. I don't get that. Similarly but to a lesser extent, WP's second largest degree wave three, is something like five times wave one and wave five nearly double again.

... and also because when one considers the numbers and the market at the time Elliot came up with his rules the numbers are so exponentionally bigger now so that the slightest inaccuracy will be exponentially magnified over time... and as I said earlier if everyone, or enough to move the market is aware that it was approaching a correction time, wouldn't you get in early.

It looks to me like the perfect deception 'they' (refer Motorways post) would employ. All those who are strict stickers for rules would have dismissed it as a wave three and set themselves up for a miss-cue later on. 

Yeah I know that last bit is a bit cynical... but, I like it anyway.


----------



## Porper (5 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> What I have done here is I have used Nicks raw chart for clarity, since it seems I agree with Nick on his wave (1) and (2) points and I agree with WP that the top of 1987 is a wave one... but we all differ from there.
> 
> The most significant difference is where I place my cycle *III*.
> 
> ...




Hello Whiskers,

You can't really have waves of lower degree (your primary waves) lasting longer in time than your cycle waves.Your cycle 2 from the 1987 crash only lasts a couple of months.

If you look at Nick Radges or Wavepickers charts you will see they have one thing in common and that is wave equality.

Not critisizing, just an observation, it is always good to look at some E.Wavers charts to get the feel of how they place a count.Practise makes perfect, keep it up.


----------



## wavepicker (5 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Long term forecasts can be very difficult with EW, Kondratieff or whatever method one uses. 

Not sure if Nick has one (I don't) would be a long term inflation adjusted chart of the All Ordinaries. I think a wave count on such a chart might be of more value and very interesting IMO.


----------



## Porper (5 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Long term forecasts can be very difficult with EW, Kondratieff or whatever method one uses.
> 
> Not sure if Nick has one (I don't) would be a long term inflation adjusted chart of the All Ordinaries. I think a wave count on such a chart might be of more value and very interesting IMO.




I agree, going back so far gives a false picture.I have seen a inflation adjusted count from way back but can't remember where now, maybe Elliot Wave International, I'll see if I can find it.

I remember thinking in real terms that the stock market as a whole hadn't done that well.


----------



## Whiskers (5 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> wave equality.




Yeah Porper, that's a concept I had in mind but from a different perspective.



wavepicker said:


> long term inflation adjusted






Porper said:


> I remember thinking in real terms that the stock market as a whole hadn't done that well.




Interesting points guys. 

I was curious about how you reconcile all that in the context of the basic rules and guide lines. 

Good fodder to consider in my analytic and devils advocate hats.


----------



## Whiskers (5 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> A trendline must be kept sensitive
> 
> A number of factors
> 
> ...






motorway said:


> I see cycles as structural but not periodic !




Not sure we're on the exact same wave length here motorway, but these are concepts I'm having trouble with... or maybe it's the others  ... with EW.


----------



## motorway (5 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well the proverbial

7 good years and 7 bad years

suggests a cycle that is periodic in time

cycles in the stock market cycle

but are not periodic in time

Hence 

Chaos 
is deterministic

but not predictable

Low tide follows high tide
for the very fact there is a high tide

it is inevitable

With tides in the market
We can identify high and low
 in a structural sense
but can not name the day

WHEN !

But We can be ready
and adapt

Because in the proverbial sense
the 7 good years does follow the 7 bad

Joseph effect....

So

Play what is in front of you
and know what the structure is.

need to do both..

but to predict in sense of time
is to guess and gamble ( imo  )

You can not be right but only early or late,
You are just wrong !


Problem arises
because time is just another name for movement

So time is connected, but the speed becomes a factor

When it has moved enough
the time is up

Trend lines
are really valid only 
in a frame of two points of similar magnitude ( see not time )
after that they become fantasy lines (imo  )
ie they have lost sensitivity. they no longer inform us of much .

motorway


----------



## wavepicker (5 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This post follows on from earlier analysis some weeks ago:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=318065&postcount=3837

back then it was mentioned based on that analysis we were expecting a low for this leg to come in between 8th-15th Aug. I specifically like the 8th as it's 55 fib trading days from the peak give or take a couple of days. TIME IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PRICE. The target I mentioned back then for that timeframe was between 4686-4690pts based on long tern fib clusters. If the market does find support at this level it will be interesting as it will RE AFFIRM my long term MONTHLY wave count that I have previously posted on this thread. That chart was marked such that the advance from the low of 1987 till 2007 was a third wave.

I have re posted the updated EW daily chart from that last post and left the arrows with expected pattern of trend intact on that chart. 

The fixed cycle analysis both in the Intermediate and Medium Term tells us we are coming into a major low here completing 4 degrees of trend. If it is correct then this should be a substantial rally with the next rotation or HIGH not due till mid October and then there is another cycle above that one that is not due till years end so the rally will persist till then IMO!!

The EW pattern of trend im play ATM has just completed a 4th wave(blue 4th wave) OF Green wave C. Contracting triangles precede the last move in an impulse and that is what we have here. As a measured move, the thrust out of the triangle should terminate at the 4686-4690 level but it has already completed the requirement today(by making a new near market low) of completing the 5th wave. So we might go lower from here to the target but then again we already might be there as we are only a few days away.

Based on this I have started opening up a new portfolio today of longs and will be slowly easing back into the market in the days ahead. NON are resource stocks commodity related. And if I'm wrong then.... :

Good Trading to All

Cheers


----------



## motorway (6 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> eg square root of time just one..




Whiskers

There are log scales
and then there are arthimetic scales

But how does price actually scale
( through time/levels )

does a stock at .01
move the same as a stock (even the same stock) at 100. ?

If you tossed a fair coin
10000 times

what outcomes could be expected ?

Are you going to get exactly 5000 H & T s ?

There is a hint
in how price scales

both arithmetic and log charts
distort the true trend

So very long trendlines
over large price ranges

are no longer sensitive
to the real...

motorway


----------



## qmanthebarbarian (6 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Play what is in front of you
> and know what the structure is.







motorway said:


> Problem arises
> because time is just another name for movement
> 
> So time is connected, but the speed becomes a factor
> ...




motorway, great post. though i think you're wasted in technical analysis. you should be a fiction writer or failing that a university professor...


----------



## Whiskers (6 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Motorway, you sure are a mysterious, even mystical fella... not giving much away, making everyone think it out for themselves. You're not a teacher or philosopher by any chance eh? 

You remind me of that old chinese man, Miyagi in The Karate Kid... and I'm Daniel.


----------



## davo8 (7 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> Leonardo Fibonacci may disagree with me.




I rather doubt it. The ratios you call Fibonacci are actually the "golden ratio", and Leonardo Pisano (aka Fibonacci) did not know that the sequence he described was related to it, yet alone that these ratios would be used in stock speculation.

Does the market move on golden ratios? I rather doubt it, but if enough people believe and if it's in all the software, then I suppose it could come to be so.

I see these ratios more as guidelines that help the eye to see patterns and give them a scale.


----------



## MRC & Co (7 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> I see these ratios more as guidelines that help the eye to see patterns and give them a scale.




Why do you need fib points to see patterns or give them a scale?


----------



## >Apocalypto< (7 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> You remind me of that old chinese man, Miyagi in The Karate Kid... and I'm Daniel.




Miyagi was Japanese mate.


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Motorway, you sure are a mysterious, even mystical fella... not giving much away, making everyone think it out for themselves. You're not a teacher or philosopher by any chance eh?





I`m a fan too.I have little understanding what the (koan like) posts say but strangely that is why I enjoy reading them.


----------



## Whiskers (7 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> Miyagi was Japanese mate.




Oh, he was too... sorry Miyagi.


----------



## Sean K (7 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> I`m a fan too.I have little understanding what the (koan like) posts say but strangely that is why I enjoy reading them.



I don't make it past the first line.


----------



## jaithomson (8 August 2008)

*ASX 200 Forecast*

Does anybody have any forecasts for the ASX 200 today?

 - I'm thinking it will fall roughly 50 points throughout the day.


----------



## suprsnipes (8 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Australia 200 ...

Watch 4876 - 4883


----------



## CanOz (8 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



suprsnipes said:


> The Australia 200 ...
> 
> Watch 4876 - 4883




Did i just see a bounce off 4876ish?


----------



## the bard (8 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like a bullish hammer today boys and girls! Who said something would happen around the 8/8/08? Good call on that one.


----------



## the bard (8 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It was Wavepicker, good work!


----------



## wavepicker (8 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



the bard said:


> It was Wavepicker, good work!




Hello The Bard.

On my charts I had 8th August. I came about this date by counting 55 Fibonacci traded days forward from the 19 May high. Only problem is, I made a mistake as I counted 58 days forward which is the 8th August!!! The actual forecasted turn date was suppose to be 5th August which makes it BANG on right. FREAKY!!! The price target was 4691 and the market missed it by 130 odd points but it was close enough IMO. All this was forecasted from months earlier.

Also the dead giveway(irrespective of price and time) was the pattern of trend(EW). That wave 4 triangle was enough for me to decide to open a new portfolio of longs on Monday as stated in my earlier post.



PS, Those charts I posted on in that last were my last on this site. For various reasons I have decided to move on and focus on my trading in greater detail and also to spend more time with family and hobbies.

I have enjoyed posting on this site, made lots of friends and great trading conversation. I apologise to anyone I may have upset whom I did not see eye to eye with. No hard feelings, this is just forum to pass the spare time and not to be taken too seriously. Just entertainment value for me.

I wish all the best ofl success with your trading in the future, Good time to be long ATM IMO.

Take Care

Wavepicker


----------



## CanOz (8 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Hello The Bard.
> 
> On my charts I had 8th August. I came about this date by counting 55 Fibonacci traded days forward from the 19 May high. Only problem is, I made a mistake as I counted 58 days forward which is the 8th August!!! The actual forecasted turn date was suppose to be 5th August which makes it BANG on right. FREAKY!!! The price target was 4691 and the market missed it by 130 odd points but it was close enough IMO. All this was forecasted from months earlier.
> 
> ...




Hi WP, I'm interested in your thoughts on the S&P 500.


----------



## nizar (8 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> PS, Those charts I posted on in that last were my last on this site. For various reasons I have decided to move on and focus on my trading in greater detail and also to spend more time with family and hobbies.
> 
> I have enjoyed posting on this site, made lots of friends and great trading conversation. I apologise to anyone I may have upset whom I did not see eye to eye with. No hard feelings, this is just forum to pass the spare time and not to be taken too seriously. Just entertainment value for me.
> 
> I wish all the best ofl success with your trading in the future, Good time to be long ATM IMO.




Thanks for posting here wavepicker.
One of the few quality quality contributors to this site.
You will be missed.
All the best to you and your family.


----------



## Whiskers (8 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Also the dead giveway(irrespective of price and time) was the pattern of trend(EW). That wave 4 triangle was enough for me to decide to open a new portfolio of longs on Monday as stated in my earlier post.
> 
> 
> 
> PS, Those charts I posted on in that last were my last on this site.




Augh, c'mon WP... you can still have a little peep in here ocassionally... even if only to see what people are saying about you. 



Whiskers said:


> [From post 3828 (22nd July)]
> Hehehe, I'm desperately restraining myself, rub92me.
> 
> I'm fairly confident *oil has past it's peak*, but the other component of my reserection of the Aus market is the *weakening of the AUD against the USD*... or more precisely the strengthening of the USD index. That hasn't kicked in yet, and although (according to my new "L" EW count) one target has been met, I'm still a tad cautious of our market going a bit lower to that 4,812.
> ...




By george, I think I'm getting the hang of this EW stuff. 

Can I claim genius status for calling it correct!


----------



## CanOz (8 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Hi WP, I'm interested in your thoughts on the S&P 500.




Hmmm, i guess this won't be forthcoming?

Any other EWavers care to comment on the S&P 500?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## the bard (8 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

See ya wavepicker, have a good one, thanks for the positive feedback re your posts. All the best!!


----------



## MRC & Co (9 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> I apologise to anyone I may have upset whom I did not see eye to eye with. No hard feelings, this is just forum to pass the spare time and not to be taken too seriously. Just entertainment value for me.
> 
> I wish all the best ofl success with your trading in the future, Good time to be long ATM IMO.
> 
> ...




All the best.  Enjoy the hobbies and time with the family.  

Though we didn't always see eye to eye, it is all entertainment and enjoyed some of your analysis.  Come back when you get free time.  

Agree on the long ATM.

Good luck.


----------



## Porper (9 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> PS, Those charts I posted on in that last were my last on this site.




Very sorry to here that Wavepicker.

I enjoyed and learnt from your posts a great deal.We don't have many experienced E. Wavers on here, you were probably the most experienced and had an understanding beyond probably all of us.

Good call on the change of trend.

Have fun in your new ventures.


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Forums can be (are) very time consuming.
Waves has I'm sure come to that conclusion long ago.
There does come times when we question why the hell we spend so much time doing this when in reality our time can be better spent.

Its an interest which isnt shared by many of our friends---all here would associate with that.
There is no point even discussing this sort of stuff with 99.9% of the world---they just glaze over.(not just E/W--infact most financial discussion).
atleast here we have people with opinions and genuine input AND interest.

So here we are.

Just cut down your time here Waves.
Your opinion and discussion is valued by many here---hope to see it appear from time to time.
Thanks for your time in the past.
Enjoy--that---is what life is all about--we only get one! (Well I think so anyway).


----------



## Sean K (9 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Forums can be (are) very time consuming.



But, we're all here for a reason.

And, we've all seen people say goodbye forever only to return not long after.


----------



## wavepicker (9 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks, Tech, Porper, CanOz, whiskers, and the bard and anybody else I have missed.

Tech, unfortunately I have promised THE COOK and my kids I will spend much less time on the PC in the evenings, so whatever time I do have I really need to spend on actual trading and trading analysis.
 I will try to pop in from time to time but if anyone would like to discuss any EW or Cycles related stuff you can reach me here:

passthebuckrapidly@yahoo.com

I hope most went long this week!!  I am long to the buggery but not commodities or precious metals stoxx. 

8-9 years ago I got burnt in the tech wreck of the nasdaq. I never wanted to ever look at tech stoxx again after that. But for the first time I actually see the Nasdaq leading the US markets and looking at buying tech stocks. Mind you not any old tech stoxx, but mainly those related to clean technology and climate change. Some interesting opportunities IMO. 
As for precious metals and commoities, they are out favour and will be asleep for 2-3 years IMO

All the Best

Wavepicker


----------



## BentRod (9 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Very disappointed that you will be cutting back your posting Waves.

I don't post much but have probably read every one of your posts. 
Plently of other lurkers in the same boat too I'd imagine.

PS. lolz@passthebuckrapidly


----------



## Plan B (9 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wavepicker,

I would just like to say that your input has certainly been appreciated in here over the years! (has it really been that long ) And I for one truly appreciated yours and Magdorans words of caution back last year well before all the sh*t hit the fan and I can only say that I truly, truly do hope that you stick your head in here in the future to warn all the plebeians that you think things are getting a little too inordinate and to be careful! 

Your words of caution are certainly welcome around here in my books!

Take care :star::star::star:


----------



## davo8 (9 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Why do you need fib points to see patterns or give them a scale?




Stock charts are normally shown with the zero suppressed, which makes it hard to visually see the vertical scale. Adding a set of scaling ratios allows the eye to pick out pattern features more easily and judge their significant.

The ratios themselves are relatively unimportant. There is no science behind them, and no way to prove that particular ratios work better than others. The "golden ratio" has been shown to be useful in art, architecture, design and other human endeavours, so it's not surprising it's useful here. However, other ratios would work just as well if people learned to use them.

Obviously if enough people use the same ratios there is the additional advantage that you can predict how the market will observe certain points, but I have no reason to believe institutional investors use them, except when stalking amateurs.


----------



## alankew (9 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wavepicker,like a few others on this thread,dont have the knowledge to comment on your charts etc but love reading your posts on this thread.Predictions have been amazing,thanks from us mere mortals and good luck.Al.Actually maybe if we all keep posting our thanks and congrats he(?!!!!!!!!!)will stick around at least answering these posts


----------



## macca (10 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

HI all,

Yep, I am another keen reader of Wavepickers absorbing posts.

I wonder WP, would you consider posting a monthly chart with a small commentary, just as an overview of the market ?

I am sure we would all appreciate it

All the best and good trades to you


----------



## Uncle Festivus (12 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

FWIW, I see  some rising wedge reversals forming again, most notably on the FTSE, although still forming on the DOW as well?


----------



## GreatPig (16 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some bullish RSI divergence showing on the weekly chart now. Seems to be finding support around those old July/Aug 06 levels (ie. these levels  - also just above the 50% Fib level).

GP


----------



## pennywise75 (16 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Some bullish RSI divergence showing on the weekly chart now. Seems to be finding support around those old July/Aug 06 levels (ie. these levels  - also just above the 50% Fib level).
> 
> GP



With Divergence, do you think is a more useful divergence MACD, RSI, ADX?


----------



## CamKawa (16 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



pennywise75 said:


> With Divergence, do you think is a more useful divergence MACD, RSI, ADX?



They don't mean that much in isolation. If you can get a couple of them to team up together and point in the same direction then you have a stronger case.


----------



## GreatPig (16 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't know, but I mainly only look at RSI. Daryl Guppy seems to think it's one of the more reliable indications, although it isn't very good for timing.

GP


----------



## harrisonhan (18 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO has rebounded.--- The first target is 5609.


----------



## $20shoes (18 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Haven't posted for a while, so I thought I'd share from a long term weekly Bollinger perspective. 

What I'm looking for is a constriction of the long term BBs (green 55 week bands) to signify that a major bottom is in. You can see this principle at work at point 1, where the Stochastics bottom out - at the same time the upper Green band turns down and the lower green band turns up. The removal of the longer term volatility often signifies the end of a major move, and of course a trend reversal is then a possibility.  

At "2" it looks like the blue band wants to wrap around this latest lower low signifying a minor bottom, but a rally from here (more volatility)  would force the blue band further down and we would then be looking for yet another lower low at 4300-4400. 

You can see that as of today, the green bands are showing no sign of constricting. The Stochastics are in the process of bottoming out, but being longer term we may have 4-5 months before this completely plays out. If we make @ 4400 in the next 2 months, the upper 55 week BB will be turning down - I'll be looking for the all the lower bands to wrap around the 
lower low at this point.


----------



## explod (18 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> Haven't posted for a while, so I thought I'd share from a long term weekly Bollinger perspective.
> 
> .




Yep it looks on the oversold side but from my trend perspective a little lower in the next day or so would see the next major support down towards the 4,000 area.

Based on some of the very ominouse news being forced to the surface in the US due to litigation threats against Lehman Bothers would say we could be in fact in for a very rough trot.


----------



## Broadway (18 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



harrisonhan said:


> XAO has rebounded.--- The first target is 5609.




Interesting prediction. 

I do prefer being a bull than a bear, 

Could you give us all a hint why you say this?

thx.

And welcome to the asf forums.


----------



## davo8 (19 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



harrisonhan said:


> XAO has rebounded.--- The first target is 5609.




Can I quote you?

Or, more to the point, do you want to put some money on that?


----------



## MRC & Co (19 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Can I quote you?
> 
> Or, more to the point, do you want to put some money on that?




Yeh, I thought it could potentially hit 5400 area.  

But the DOW is showing a very weak trend, the S&P500 looks very bearish and the NASDAQ looks the only half bullish index.  

Any negative movement from US will push us further down to fresh lows, along with the potential further demise of the resources sector.

Not looking bullish at all ATM for the XAO IMO.  

Sentiment polls are down the middle at the moment, so no clear indication from them either way.

Seasonality shows this is generally not a bullish time of the year either.


----------



## Sean K (19 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, I thought it could potentially hit 5400 area.
> 
> But the DOW is showing a very weak trend, the S&P500 looks very bearish and the NASDAQ looks the only half bullish index.
> 
> ...



I agree, pretty bearish sentiment out there from what I've read.

Perhaps more likely a breakdown from this little wedge?

I suppose from the previous trend down is more likely. 

Not sure what any EW numbers and letters in the tea pot say.

Watch, and shoot!


----------



## korrupt_1 (19 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If i recall correctly, when the DJIA hit -20% and was officially declared a bear market, it rebounded... 

I think - without consulting the charts (going by memory here) - our XAO did something similar too... The ultimate result was that we headed lower and lower to sub -20% ...

I expect the DJIA will do something similar... head towards sub -20% losses as well... We could see the DJIA retest it's lows sooner than later... if this is so, then we could see further downward presure on our XAO


----------



## tex.willer (19 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



harrisonhan said:


> XAO has rebounded.--- The first target is 5609.




Surely a lot closer to 4609 than 5609.

Could have been a typo


----------



## Broadway (19 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some parts of asia are looking quite unwell. Perhaps dragging down on the xao .

I thought the Chinese markets may have got a boost from the olympics, in terms of sentiment, but they are getting killed. I wonder if they have a PPT?


----------



## tech/a (19 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Perhaps the Chinese index would have a little more impact than the Hangseng!

Here is the SSE.


----------



## BentRod (19 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Brutal.

What do you reckon Tech...wave 2? lol:


----------



## tech/a (19 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Haha.

Thought more avalanche.
But hey I can here them from here---"Its only a correction"!


----------



## CanOz (19 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Haha.
> 
> Thought more avalanche.
> But hey I can here them from here---"Its only a correction"!




A friend of mine has a best mate from Australia that was a hedge fund manager in Shanghai. He said they packed up a month ago and went home. 

"Nothing to buy"

CanOz


----------



## Aussiest (19 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> If i recall correctly, when the DJIA hit -20% and was officially declared a bear market, it rebounded...
> 
> I think - without consulting the charts (going by memory here) - our XAO did something similar too... The ultimate result was that we headed lower and lower to sub -20% ...
> 
> I expect the DJIA will do something similar... head towards sub -20% losses as well... We could see the DJIA retest it's lows sooner than later... if this is so, then we could see further downward presure on our XAO




Yes, i agree with this. Call it a hunch, but i think we are in for one more low, then it will bounce, but how high i do not know. I reckon it'll bounce back up to the current level of support, then we'll be stuck in a trading range between the 5000 and 5600ish mark, for a while. Until the crisis is officially declared over.


----------



## wayneL (19 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Haha.
> 
> Thought more avalanche.
> But hey I can here them from here---"Its only a correction"!




Buy the di... err, troug... errr, valley.... err, buy the abyss!!!!


----------



## GreatPig (19 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What's the problem? If you'd bought in June 05 you'd still be well ahead... 

Too bad for those who mortgaged their grandmothers in late 07 though.

GP


----------



## MRC & Co (20 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Too bad for those who mortgaged their grandmothers in late 07 though.
> 
> GP




The sad thing is..........I read this was a common occurance!  I bet quite a few aren't enjoying these olympics, but hey, at least they still have a sense of national pride!


----------



## davo8 (20 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiest said:


> Yes, i agree with this. Call it a hunch, but i think we are in for one more low, then it will bounce, but how high i do not know. I reckon it'll bounce back up to the current level of support, then we'll be stuck in a trading range between the 5000 and 5600ish mark, for a while. Until the crisis is officially declared over.




I wish I had a crystal ball that could make predictions like that.

All I know is (repeat after me): this is not the bottom. 

The credit crunch has wasted the finance sector. We're headed for a recession (or close to it) and so far we've only seen the downturn in residential and consumer discretionary. It has yet to ripple through the general economy and affect company profits. Forward P/Es are too high.

I'll put in my guess for 4300-4500 and a recovery mid next year, maybe. But it could be far, far worse.


----------



## Sean K (20 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On the XAO chart, the MACD somewhat divergence to the chart indicates an up, but wouldn't want that support around 4900 to bust.

Similar sort of picture on the mini 200.

If that line breaks, might be a few points in a short there. 

Next stop?


----------



## explod (20 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> On the XAO chart, the MACD somewhat divergence to the chart indicates an up, but wouldn't want that support around 4900 to bust.
> 
> Similar sort of picture on the mini 200.
> 
> ...





Yep, and on the five year weekly a break of a 100 points here sees the next support around 4,500 and, dare we consider, below 4000 ouch


----------



## Sean K (21 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Yep, and on the five year weekly a break of a 100 points here sees the next support around 4,500 and, dare we consider, below 4000 ouch



I'm thinking 4600 ish as the next stop on this breakdown, if it occurs.

Still looking pretty bearish until this triangle breaks up a bit.


----------



## treefrog (21 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'm thinking 4600 ish as the next stop on this breakdown, if it occurs.
> 
> Still looking pretty bearish until this triangle breaks up a bit.




thought this def'n worth *bear*ing in mind:
*Descending Triangle *
A price bar pattern in which the slope of price bar highs and lows are converging to a point so as to outline the pattern in Right Triangle. The hypotenuse in an Descending Triangle should be sloping from higher to lower and left to right. Chartists frequently buy or (go-long) on a break up and out of the Descending Triangle or sell (go-short) on a break down and out of the Ascending Triangle. However, Descending Triangle are generally thought to demonstrate a stronger bias towards predicting a break down and out of the Triangle, particularly when the trend leading to the formation has been down.

join your own dots - thats why you did all those dot patterns at age 4 - practice!

ps - down another 50 today not shown


----------



## skyhawk (21 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hello All,

I am new to this website and this is my first post. I have been around the trading game for 16 years and had the misfortune of a major financial setback during the techwreck days. Fortuntely I have been lucky enough to avoid the carnage of the last 10 months.

I have been reading into the history of this thread and some excellent ideas & posts here. I will be keenly following the comments and ideas made by tech/a and wave picker.

My  is as follows.

The current pattern of the market is unclear at present
If we get a move up from here in the next 2-3 sessions ir may confirm a weekly pivot in place
Further downside although quite a possibility, will be limited and probably if it traces out will be a minor false low and the market will shoot back up to the resistance point of the current triangle
I think this is a good time to start looking for long positions and a rally is imminant


----------



## CanOz (21 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyhawk said:


> Hello All,
> 
> I am new to this website and this is my first post. I have been around the trading game for 16 years and had the misfortune of a major financial setback during the techwreck days. Fortuntely I have been lucky enough to avoid the carnage of the last 10 months.
> 
> ...




What If........?

The triangle breaks to the downside? Is it more probable given that market is in a downtrend? Where is the next support level? Is this consolidation pattern above or below support or resistance?

What are the overseas markets positioned to do?

Some food for thought.

Cheers,



CanOz


----------



## Broadway (21 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think the ES found some volume last night.

Maybe up for a few days.


----------



## CanOz (21 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Short covering?


----------



## nomore4s (21 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> What If........?
> 
> The triangle breaks to the downside? Is it more probable given that market is in a downtrend? Where is the next support level? Is this consolidation pattern above or below support or resistance?
> 
> ...




Interesting point Cana.

The fact the market hasn't been able to break through the resistance at 5100ish is a worry. A break to the downside would see 4750ish at least you would think. If this were a stock it would be setting up perfectly for a short.

Time for a capitulation low maybe? Would be expecting a capitulation low to touch at least 4600ish. All pure speculation though


----------



## Whiskers (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyhawk said:


> Hello All,
> 
> I am new to this website and this is my first post. My  is as follows.
> 
> *The current pattern of the market is unclear at present*




Hi skyhawk... Welcome aboard.

I'm getting a pretty clear picture mate. 

Oil bugged, the AUD headed for low 80's for awhile and the POG heading north again and some  commodities following suite pretty soon. 

Just looking at the XAO, a pretty tight bollinger squeeze coming on.

I think we'll probably be up tomorrow, heading toward 5200'sh before we have a significant down patch again.


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyhawk said:


> Hello All,
> 
> I am new to this website and this is my first post. I have been around the trading game for 16 years and had the misfortune of a major financial setback during the techwreck days. Fortuntely I have been lucky enough to avoid the carnage of the last 10 months.
> 
> ...



Hi skyhawk, yes there's some good contributors here. Perhaps you could post up some charts to support your positions above, sounds pretty random to me. Cheers, kennas


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It may be premature to call a halt to this retracement. 

A yearly chart of the XAO back to the lows of 1981 to the present shows that 4400 or 3650 is a more realistic target.

This is calculated on fibonnaci retracement from the 2007 highs, to the 38% and 50% levels. This would get it back into the long term trend as shown by the fibonnaci fan.

gg


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> It may be premature to call a halt to this retracement.
> 
> A yearly chart of the XAO back to the lows of 1981 to the present shows that 4400 or 3650 is a more realistic target.
> 
> ...



Would be good to see that on a semi log for more perspective gg.

Might flatten out a little more.

Yo no tengo.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Would be good to see that on a semi log for more perspective gg.
> 
> Might flatten out a little more.
> 
> Yo no tengo.




You did ask for it, it might provide too much encouragement for the bulls though!
Any more calculus and it will be going straight up. Calculus I believe is a stone, and we all know what happens to stones when you toss em in the air.

gg


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> A yearly chart of the XAO back to the lows of 1981 to the present shows that 4400 or 3650 is a more realistic target.




Is that comparing apples to cumquat's?

Considering that many of the big caps of the 80 then 90 and now noughties are very different companies. Just think of NWS as an example nothing then everything (10% of the index) then nothing again.

Is that trend-line actually a trend-line or just a random collection of numbers that happen to be getting larger?


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Is that comparing apples to cumquat's?
> 
> Considering that many of the big caps of the 80 then 90 and now noughties are very different companies. Just think of NWS as an example nothing then everything (10% of the index) then nothing again.
> 
> Is that trend-line actually a trend-line or just a random collection of numbers that happen to be getting larger?



TH, I agree the composition of the index has changed a bit but doesn't it still represent the market psychology of the day? I think the very long term trend is pretty uniform isn't it? Just from memory..


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> TH, I agree the composition of the index has changed a bit but doesn't it still represent the market psychology of the day? I think the very long term trend is pretty uniform isn't it? Just from memory..




No real idea to tell you the truth Kennas. It will no doult prick the punters interest and belief they are being smart when the ABC muppet pulls up the same chart in a couple of months. So yes it will have some "market psychology" effect.

Just that long term index charts are a bit funny, especially the small ASX market, in that they are not the same as a single stock chart or even a sector chart for that matter. They are not what they once were if you get where I'm coming from


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Is that comparing apples to cumquat's?
> 
> 
> Is that trend-line actually a trend-line or just a random collection of numbers that happen to be getting larger?




Its a fibonnaci fan. I don't normally draw it on a semilog, so cannot vouch for its significance.

_Fibonacci Fan Lines are displayed by first drawing a trendline between two extreme points.  MetaStock then draws an invisible vertical line through the second extreme point.  This vertical line is then divided at the Fibonacci levels of 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8%.  Finally, three trendlines are drawn from the first extreme point so they pass through the invisible vertical line at the above three levels.  (This technique is similar to the method used to calculate Speed Resistance Lines_

gg


----------



## Beej (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Its a fibonnaci fan. I don't normally draw it on a semilog, so cannot vouch for its significance.
> 
> _Fibonacci Fan Lines are displayed by first drawing a trendline between two extreme points.  MetaStock then draws an invisible vertical line through the second extreme point.  This vertical line is then divided at the Fibonacci levels of 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8%.  Finally, three trendlines are drawn from the first extreme point so they pass through the invisible vertical line at the above three levels.  (This technique is similar to the method used to calculate Speed Resistance Lines_
> 
> gg




I would suggest doing that analysis on a LONG term chart without log y axis is just meaningless.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## wayneL (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Beej said:


> I would suggest doing that analysis on a LONG term chart without log y axis is just meaningless.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej



That might be so Beej,

But an assertion of meaninglessness without meaningful evidence is, ummm... meaningless.

Let us know why you think that.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Beej said:


> I would suggest doing that analysis on a LONG term chart without log y axis is just meaningless.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




You may well be correct, do you have any evidence though or is it just a hunch. I'm unsure whether Fibonacci used a semi log with his rabbits or not. I'm not saying your incorrect.


gg


----------



## tcoates (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Possible head and shoulders pattern (see red line sloping down) using weekly chart. Needs to break down through the red line to confirm. The Fib. lines is only used to determine target - though target is from high (mid Oct '07) to intersection with red line...




Tim


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoates said:


> Possible head and shoulders pattern (see red line sloping down) using weekly chart. Needs to break down through the red line to confirm. The Fib. lines is only used to determine target - though target is from high (mid Oct '07) to intersection with red line...
> 
> Tim



Yeah, this was thrown up some time ago. (maybe even by me - damn I'm good, lol  ), but leaves a pretty desperate target doesn't it. It's end of the universe stuff almost.


----------



## tcoates (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kennas,

The most recent Smart Investor has David Hunt (President of ATAA) has targets of 4164 and "ultimate target" of 3440 (sometime next year). Ming you, he is referring to the XJO. But there is not much diff between the XJO and XAO chart wise.




and the crash in '87 took off a good chunk off the index. Declines between '87 and today, have taken between 50% and 61% off the prev up move?!?

As for the prev. post re "head and shoulders" ... my mind does not go back that far (doh). Also if the index goes below (say) 4500 that would validate the head and shoulder pattern.

Tim


----------



## korrupt_1 (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

crikey!!... you bears are not painting a very good picture for us bulls 

i'm wondering,.. if the XAO does get to as low as 3000's... what would the value of our blue chips be at then?

I'd snap up a zillion BHP shares if it gets to $20's


----------



## Sean K (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> I'd snap up a zillion BHP shares if it gets to $20's



What's a zillion @ $20 ? 

I might be able to afford a 100@$20 by then...

Nice long term plan though, I like it!


----------



## Whiskers (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoates said:


> Possible head and shoulders pattern (see red line sloping down) using weekly chart. Needs to break down through the red line to confirm. The Fib. lines is only used to determine target - though target is from high (mid Oct '07) to intersection with red line...
> 
> 
> 
> ...




H & S is more unreliable the steeper the slope isn't it... especially when sloping with the trend?

I'm thinking trend lines and formations are getting a bit arbitrary now, since there's some very substantial changes occurring in the dynamics of the economy and regulatory enviornment... ie probably the biggest over-haul in decades (mainly in the US, but which filters through to us) which I think many people have not fully comprehended, let alone factored into the medium term. 

But having said that, I guess it'll only be a matter of time until the genie-asses find another way to wrought the system.


----------



## Beej (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> That might be so Beej,
> 
> But an assertion of meaninglessness without meaningful evidence is, ummm... meaningless.
> 
> Let us know why you think that.




I already provided reasoning when making the same point weeks ago in another XAO analysis thread. So here goes again - you are plotting linear projection lines. If you don't use a log y/price axis, then as you move further along the x-axis (time), the "linear" rate of price change in any projection is reflecting in effect an ever-decreasing (exponentially) rate of return (either positive or negative). The log chart let's you use a linear projection (straight line) to reflect a constant rate of return (in % terms) either way.

For a short term chart (say < 1 year) this may not matter much as the difference is minimal. When you are charting over 20-30 years it matters a lot.   Just think about the cumulative inflation since 1981 for example to get the idea.....

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## tcoates (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From 

http://www.trending123.com/patterns/head_and_shoulders.html

"The neckline can slope up or down. An upward sloping neckline is considered to be more bullish than a downward sloping one, which indicates a weaker situation with more drastic price declines. It is rather rare to have a downward sloping neckline for this pattern."

That said...

"The lack of a volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is an indication that this pattern may not be reliable. In addition, if the volume has remained constant, or was increasing, over the duration of the pattern, then this pattern should be considered less reliable."

From my perspective volume has not really been decreasing.

Tim


----------



## brty (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi,

Just to put the possible falls into perspective, I have shown below the % declines from the peak prices for the XAO going back to the turn of the century (1900).

These figures are based on those posted by Prof fink, and are XAO recalculated backwards, since it only came into existence in 1980. The actual source is unknown, but it does seem reasonably accurate when I compare to some older books I have.

It is also only on a monthly close basis, not the absolute highs and lows.

Biggest falls high to low.

1914-1916  26%
1929-1931  46%
1937-1942  32%
1951-1953  33%
1970-1974  55%
1980-1982  37%
1987-1988  43%
1989-1990  27%
2007-2???  25% so far, taking the july monthly close of 5050.

What does it all mean?? Hell I've got no idea, except that a much larger fall is possible without being out of the ordinary.

We have falls of this magnitude or larger on average every 12 years. It's been 17 years since we had a fall this big.

The last time there were 17 years between large falls '53-70, the market fell 55% over 4 years, and that was after a mining boom!!!

Given the state of credit markets and the reverberations still to be felt, somewhere in the 3000's seems likely, but may not occur for a year or two.

brty


----------



## dhukka (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> It is also only on a monthly close basis, not the absolute highs and lows.
> 
> Biggest falls high to low.
> 
> ...





That's the problem with using month end totals, you miss some significant peaks and troughs. It was only 6 years ago that we had a *+20%* correction. From Feb 14th 2002 - Mar 13th 2003 the market fell *-22%*.

btw weren't you one of the biggest cheerleaders a few months back?



brty said:


> Hi,
> 
> I love this thread, all the doom and gloom.
> 
> ...




XAO at the time *5663.7*


----------



## korrupt_1 (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

With the introduction of online trading, and better public knowledge of the stock markets,... do you think that there are more 'Mum and Dad' style of investors out there that will add liquidity to the markets? I mean, the only reason why it goes up is because there's a flow of money INTO the system... With more savvy traders utilising online brokers, this just makes it easier for people to access it right?

Therefore, is it possible that the  extreme lows of 3000's might be avoided because there's so much more relative liquidity now than it was in the early 1900's to 1980's???

Im not sure about you guys, but 3000's seems really extreme (I'm sure others have mention this before)... I do believe that mid 4000's might be possible, but can't really believe -  and justify - that it can go much lower...


----------



## brty (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Dhukka,

There are many other corrections that come in at 15-20% just like that one did. The problem is that I only have the monthly close data going back as far as 1900, not the intra monthly highs and lows.

I think it is best to compare like with like, hence why that particular correction did not show up higher and why I used the July close of 5050, not the low.

That post of mine you decided to highlight, I still stand by. The market will not go straight down on all probability, it rarely does.

 In fact most of those large declines had retracements of 60-80% towards the top before making the ultimate low, from an intermediate low, the exception being the '87 crash (very fast from top to bottom) and the '29 crash where the retracement was ~20%.

Basically money can still be made going long on carefully selected stocks, with stop losses, as I suggested around the middle of march. In another thread I suggested time to cash in profits, in the middle of May, but you didn't highlight those posts.

Also the index is an index, not individual stocks. You would not be able to find one stock that has gone even close to mimicking the performance of the index over the last 108 years, which by the way is 6.4% pa, to last years high, not the often touted 9%+.

I am also not married to a position, circumstances change, my opinion will change according to what is happening in the markets.

Happy trading

brty


----------



## dhukka (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> Hi Dhukka,
> 
> There are many other corrections that come in at 15-20% just like that one did.




That one didn't come in between 15 - 20%, it was 22%. 



brty said:


> The problem is that I only have the monthly close data going back as far as 1900, not the intra monthly highs and lows.




Yes that is the problem and therefore the reason your analysis is just not very useful. 



brty said:


> That post of mine you decided to highlight, I still stand by. The market will not go straight down on all probability, it rarely does.




That's nice that you stand by your post, but your post did not say anything about the market not going down in a straight line, it said:



> The probabilities lie in the market going higher in both the median and long term.




The market going higher in the long term is a platitude, what do you define as the medium term? 6, 12 months?

I must have missed your May call. You came on the imminent & severe market correction thread back in March to tell everyone we would get a tradeable rally, yet another platitude. You don't get any browny points for pointing out the obvious.


----------



## skyQuake (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Aussie super funds have not been selling. A few have mandates that prevent from from doing so, other have 50year horizons. So thats one good thing... till ppl start doing some redemptions.
Long term investors have been eating divvies and income streams for many years without fear of loss. 
They never had to worry about capital loss before... I would think with the recent turmoil some are getting quite worried (esp BNB holders lol). Why hold 'dangerous' banks when they can ear a nice 8% on a term deposit with no risk? This imo will eventually spark some sort of proper panic selloff.


----------



## Beej (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Aussie super funds have not been selling. A few have mandates that prevent from from doing so, other have 50year horizons. So thats one good thing... till ppl start doing some redemptions.
> Long term investors have been eating divvies and income streams for many years without fear of loss.
> They never had to worry about capital loss before... I would think with the recent turmoil some are getting quite worried (esp BNB holders lol). Why hold 'dangerous' banks when they can ear a nice 8% on a term deposit with no risk? This imo will eventually spark some sort of proper panic selloff.




Yes those are interesting and valid points. Remember though that 8% cash returns have only recently been available, with the last time cash was king being back in the early 90s. Interest rates are coming down - the more the economy slows the faster they might come down. So what might happen if the cash return drops quickly to say 5 or 6% (gross before tax) max, and many blue chip stocks are able to reaffirm their ability to return a gross dividend return (ie including franking credits) in the order of 6-10% (11.5% at current prices for some the banks like ANZ and NAB!)? If this situation was coupled with some improvement in sentiment (ie appetite for risk is OK), then a lot of money could flow back into the market. If however sentiment remains low, then that low interest rate situation might simply spell more sideways action. 

Surely, something really bad and currently unexpected would have to happen to spark another really big sell-off? Not saying it won't happen, but what could that be? And will things really get that bad economically - or will this just be a "regular" slow down? I guess this is what is meant by uncertainty.....

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## skyQuake (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

RBA can drop rates all it wants but if the credit crunch worsens, the cost of funding for banks will be prohibitive again... Inflation is still well above the 2-3 band, and once the RBA figures out its not slowing, cuts may stall.

Anything can spark a panic. And the financial press will blame it on something completed unrelated. I can see it now "BABY WHALE OUTRAGE CAUSES FINANCIAL MELTDOWN"

The decline so far has been relatively calm. No jumping out of the windows yet. A few months down and we can see real panic start if US doesnt lead us out of it.


----------



## skyhawk (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoates said:


> Kennas,
> 
> The most recent Smart Investor has David Hunt (President of ATAA) has targets of 4164 and "ultimate target" of 3440 (sometime next year). Ming you, he is referring to the XJO. But there is not much diff between the XJO and XAO chart wise.




David Hunt. Geez
mate I wouldn't trust that guy for anything.
I went to various seminars that he runs through his co ADEST, where he promotes high profile gurus both local and overseas(mainly Gann and Elliott guys). Went to a few of these a few years ago with some other traders. For a seasoned chartist/trader Hunt should focus on his trade rather than trying to make a killing charging mega prices for people to see these guys!! 
What's worse the forecasts both Hunt and these gurus were expecting back then never even eventuated..... Makes you wonder how this clown became head of the ATAA


----------



## wayneL (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyhawk said:


> David Hunt. Geez
> mate I wouldn't trust that guy for anything.
> I went to various seminars that he runs through his co ADEST, where he promotes high profile gurus both local and overseas(mainly Gann and Elliott guys). Went to a few of these a few years ago with some other traders. For a seasoned chartist/trader Hunt should focus on his trade rather than trying to make a killing charging mega prices for people to see these guys!!
> What's worse the forecasts both Hunt and these gurus were expecting back then never even eventuated..... Makes you wonder how this clown became head of the ATAA



Like any "guru" who is in to prediction; you shout the one call you got right in 1968 from the mountaintops and let 150,000 bad calls since, disappear into the mists of time.

It was like a couple EWers that used to post here (now banned) called gold and oil doomage. They were crowing about how right they called it... but forgot about the intervening up wave and crook timing that made them look like Wallies.

I called a bear market and economic doomage... I'm a guru... oops I called it a couple of years too soon...let's just ignore that shall we.


----------



## brty (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi,

Dhukka,

Don't know what I have done to upset you so much, but don't really care either.

On a monthly closing basis, the fall from '02-'03 was 17.39%.
The highest monthly close was 3363 in march with the lowest monthly close in '03 being 2778 in feb. No it's not the absolute highs and lows, but neither are any of the other corrections.

There were other corrections of similar magnitude on a monthly closing basis. None of those were included either.

I have included corrections of 25%+ as the large ones, would you prefer 22%?? or 20% or maybe 15.67845623%, you have to draw the line somewhere.

If you have better data going back to 1900, then plenty of people as well as I would love to see it.
Going back to 1980 is a cinch for absolute highs and lows, but that is not the longer term. We can only compare like with like.

In your opinion is not making any type of comparison at all with history a better alternative??

What data IS more useful going back to 1900 for the Australian market??? I have not seen any but would love to.

brty


----------



## gav (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> What data IS more useful going back to 1900 for the Australian market??? I have not seen any but would love to.
> 
> brty




Data before 1980 is NOT 'data', as the ASX was not around


----------



## theasxgorilla (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoates said:


> The most recent Smart Investor has David Hunt (President of ATAA) has targets of 4164 and *"ultimate target" of 3440 (sometime next year)*. Ming you, he is referring to the XJO. But there is not much diff between the XJO and XAO chart wise.




If he's going to get page space in Smart Investor he might as well say something memorable.  I find both of these targets very hard to fathom, but the latter especially so.


----------



## brty (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Gav,

Have you got something that is better to show the performance of the Australian market prior to 1980??

I'd love to see it.

brty


----------



## skyhawk (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Like any "guru" who is in to prediction; you shout the one call you got right in 1968 from the mountaintops and let 150,000 bad calls since, disappear into the mists of time.
> 
> It was like a couple EWers that used to post here (now banned) called gold and oil doomage. They were crowing about how right they called it... but forgot about the intervening up wave and crook timing that made them look like Wallies.
> 
> I called a bear market and economic doomage... I'm a guru... oops I called it a couple of years too soon...let's just ignore that shall we.




A big Gotcha wayneL, 

Just on Oil and Gold, doesn't look like anyone who was bearish was too far wrong now, especially looking at the carnage of the last month. Wouln't you agree?
Especially if your horizon is longer term..... :


----------



## CamKawa (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gav said:


> Data before 1980 is NOT 'data', as the ASX was not around



According to Premium Data

"The official ASX historical record only commences in 1992. Other vendors may offer data that goes back further than 1992, but this data in unlikely to contain adjustments for splits, consolidations, capital returns etc. In other words, it is likely to be inconsistent with subsequent data. "


----------



## dhukka (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> Hi,
> 
> Dhukka,
> 
> ...




My comments have nothing to do with being upset, I just like to set the historical record straight. If you want to use your month end data go ahead, but it distorts the true depth of historical bear markets and excludes some altogether like the one in 2002-3. You said yourself you can't even be sure of the data pre 1980 so you don't even know if you're comparing like with like. 

Again, what do you consider to be medium term? And if you don't mind, could you answer the question that I asked twice before but you refused to answer regarding your claim that:



brty said:


> Let's see if there is any argument with the following examples.
> 
> Will ANZ bank will make $1.6B less this year than last year?
> 
> ...




my question was:



dhukka said:


> I would be interested to see how you arrive at that calculation


----------



## brty (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi,

A link on the ASX website takes you to the S&P website. I found the following.....



> 1979 The All Ordinaries index was created, with a base date of December 31st 1979, replacing the regional indices, which were independantly run out of the Sydney and Melbourne exchanges.




Ok I was a day out, it started at the end of '79.

Also interesting from the same document.....

1992 The Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE) issues the first equity futures contract in Australia.

That is patently wrong. I was trading equity futures in the '80s, the SPI was trading from the early '80's. The size of the contract was divided by 4 around that time.

brty

brty


----------



## Broadway (22 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like a triple bottom did form on the ES. One more dip which finds strong volume, and we may have a bottom that could last a week!

I find these short-term bottoms can really sneak up on me.  And they always seem to be around the times of the worst banking rumours.    Coincidence?


----------



## wayneL (23 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyhawk said:


> Just on Oil and Gold, doesn't look like anyone who was bearish was too far wrong now, especially looking at the carnage of the last month. Wouln't you agree?
> Especially if your horizon is longer term..... :



The thing is, those turkies weren't just bearish, they were naming dates. getting them absolutely wrong, and still claiming the win when "eventually" the market corrected.

We all get it right sometimes... "eventually". But faux gurus have to feed their egos with BS.


----------



## MRC & Co (23 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> RBA can drop rates all it wants but if the credit crunch worsens, the cost of funding for banks will be prohibitive again... Inflation is still well above the 2-3 band, and once the RBA figures out its not slowing, cuts may stall.




While I loosely agree with the general premise of your post and was generally an inflation bull, I am now unsure.

Commodity prices coming off and labour market driven inflation appears to be slowing from what I am aware, with the economy slowing.

Not to mention, the yield curve is pointing to a fall in rates, so the collective crowd is looking for at least a large enough fall to allow a rate cut.  Perhaps not to back within the target rate, but enough to allow a cut.  So much for time lags eh!  Reserve Bank Cowboys!


----------



## Sean K (23 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyhawk said:


> I have been reading into the history of this thread and some excellent ideas & posts here. I will be keenly following the comments and ideas made by tech/a and wave picker.
> 
> My  is as follows.



skyhawk, I'm still really interested in your justification for your comments on the market direction. 

Maybe a chart, or further analysis....

Cheers,
kennas


----------



## davo8 (23 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> RBA can drop rates all it wants but if the credit crunch worsens, the cost of funding for banks will be prohibitive again... Inflation is still well above the 2-3 band, and once the RBA figures out its not slowing, cuts may stall.
> 
> Anything can spark a panic. And the financial press will blame it on something completed unrelated. I can see it now "BABY WHALE OUTRAGE CAUSES FINANCIAL MELTDOWN"




Perhaps true, but think about it: why do we need to import debt? Why can we not make all the debt we need?

The answer is that our banks already have toxic US debt, and when that goes sour they will need to recapitalise. And when that happens you get (a) dilution and (b) low profits and low dividends. Which is why I think bank shares are headed lower. They will survive (I hope) but I'm not buying.

And yes, anything can spark a panic, but it won't catch hold and turn into a raging inferno unless fundamentals are already pretty bad.


----------



## AnDy62 (24 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I thought our debt importing stemmed from our CAD and Consumption outweighing National Saving (Investment) not from the inability of our banks - sort of by definition we are debt importers - but yeah the credit crisis is definitely not helping things.


----------



## davo8 (25 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



AnDy62 said:


> I thought our debt importing stemmed from our CAD and Consumption outweighing National Saving (Investment) not from the inability of our banks - sort of by definition we are debt importers - but yeah the credit crisis is definitely not helping things.




Chicken or egg? When debt is cheap and plentiful, especially since Australia is a good credit risk and pays good interest rates, there is a continuous inflow. Cheap debt encourages people to overpay and bid up the prices of assets like houses, and spend on consumption. Cheap debt is the cause of our CAD and lack of saving, not the other way around.

Debt is getting expensive and harder to find, and for the first time in years the balance of payments is positive. Surprise!

Tighter credit may be the only thing to fix our problems, but it isn't likely to be pleasant!


----------



## MRC & Co (25 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Cheap debt is the cause of our CAD and lack of saving, not the other way around.
> 
> Tighter credit may be the only thing to fix our problems, but it isn't likely to be pleasant!




And an increase in interest rates will appreciate the AUD, loosely speaking?  Imports cheaper, exports more expensive (for foreigners), what effect will this have on the CAD?  

Cheap debt also encourages investment, right?  Not sure it only encourages people to bid up the price of houses and consume.  What does consumption encourage, other than a CAD?  And what will this do to the CAD in % of GDP terms?


----------



## Whiskers (25 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I like it! The market is plugging away making slow, but steady progress. 

Looking pretty well bought today though. I'd say a couple of days off are in order now... back to say about 5020/30ish, before chugging on up to 5200 or so.


----------



## skyQuake (25 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Today's levels are pretty important imo. Break of 5050 means 5300 if we get follow thru at 5100. Otherwise down we again again.


----------



## davo8 (25 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> And an increase in interest rates will appreciate the AUD, loosely speaking?  Imports cheaper, exports more expensive (for foreigners), what effect will this have on the CAD?
> 
> Cheap debt also encourages investment, right?  Not sure it only encourages people to bid up the price of houses and consume.  What does consumption encourage, other than a CAD?  And what will this do to the CAD in % of GDP terms?




Higher interest rates encourage foreigners to buy AUD. Lower interest rates should benefit the CAD. Consumption is non-productive, a misuse of scarce resources. Consumption is the reward you get for working hard, not a good thing in itself.

Low interest rates encourage direction of capital into non-productive purposes such as residential housing, not productive investment.


----------



## davo8 (25 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I like it! The market is plugging away making slow, but steady progress.
> 
> Looking pretty well bought today though. I'd say a couple of days off are in order now... back to say about 5020/30ish, before chugging on up to 5200 or so.




Good to see our permabull has not been discouraged by being wrong so often.

This is a secondary correction in a bear market. The bottom is yet to come. October should be good.


----------



## MRC & Co (25 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> 1) Higher interest rates encourage foreigners to buy AUD. Lower interest rates should benefit the CAD.
> 
> 2) Consumption is non-productive, a misuse of scarce resources. Consumption is the reward you get for working hard, not a good thing in itself.
> 
> 3) Low interest rates encourage direction of capital into non-productive purposes such as residential housing, not productive investment.




1) How so?

2) GDP (by which growth is measured when inflation has been accounted for), is C+I+G+NX?

3) Micro policy can deal with such an issue?


----------



## doogie_goes_off (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A downward lead from the Nasdaq and Dow will probably see the XOA retreat back to 5020-5050 today IMO. Support likely to form ~5000 over the next few weeks and then recovery by end of quarter and stability from the first interest rate cut. I did note however that lending was still on the increase in recent economic stats. Could be a reason for the RBA to sit tight, this would see the resource sector suffer a little which could see the 5000 punched through, otherwise it looks like pretty steady sailing.


----------



## Sean K (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyhawk said:


> Hello All,
> 
> I am new to this website and this is my first post.
> 
> I have been reading into the history of this thread and some excellent ideas & posts here. *I will be keenly following the comments and ideas made by wave picker.*






kennas said:


> skyhawk, I'm still really interested in your justification for your comments on the market direction.
> 
> Maybe a chart, or further analysis....
> 
> ...




I'm also interested as to why you'll be following wavepickers posts?

Someone to look up to eh?


----------



## tech/a (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'm also interested as to why you'll be following wavepickers posts?
> 
> Someone to look up to eh?




Kenna's

Whats the problem with following a poster?
Waves is also a favorite of mine.


----------



## wayneL (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Kenna's
> 
> Whats the problem with following a poster?
> Waves is also a favorite of mine.




Yep,

I also liked how he was right 50% of the time... awesome. :


----------



## tech/a (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Yep,
> 
> I also liked how he was right 50% of the time... awesome. :




At least he posted analysis for public scrutiny and debate.
Some of us do.
Which will be either proven to be correct or not---50/50 well it depends on what you do with each 50.


Others pass purely opinion.
Your comment above has no value---in my not so humble opinion.


----------



## wayneL (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> At least he posted analysis for public scrutiny and debate.
> Some of us do.
> Which will be either proven to be correct or not---50/50 well it depends on what you do with each 50.
> 
> ...



It wasn't meant to have value, so that's OK. :

...and it's not required for you you to teach me how to suck the sausage. 

Thanks.


----------



## tech/a (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> It wasn't meant to have value, so that's OK. :
> 
> ...and it's not required for *you you *to teach me how to suck the sausage.
> 
> Thanks.




A touch of the "Joe Bjelke-Peterson's" there Wayne!


----------



## wayneL (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> A touch of the "Joe Bjelke-Peterson's" there Wayne!



They tell me it's genetic.


----------



## Sean K (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Kenna's
> 
> Whats the problem with following a poster?
> Waves is also a favorite of mine.



Yes, you are right Tech, I have read probably every one of your posts since joining, thank you.

Maybe skyhawk will be following every one of wavepickers posts also.

There are some great contributors on this site.


----------



## nomore4s (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nice rebound today


----------



## noident (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Everyone pretended today that nothing much happened overnight in the US (the DOW going down 2%) and seemed to bet heavily on the DOW recovering in the next trading session. Chances are that it will. But what if it doesn't, what if the DOW goes down another 1.5-2% tomorrow, what will XAO do - go down 4%?


----------



## nomore4s (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



noident said:


> Everyone pretended today that nothing much happened overnight in the US (the DOW going down 2%) and seemed to bet heavily on the DOW recovering in the next trading session. Chances are that it will. But what if it doesn't, what if the DOW goes down another 1.5-2% tomorrow, what will XAO do - go down 4%?




This is not entirely correct.

The XAO opened down due to the DOW, we were under 5000 for most of the morning. So I don't think anyone was pretending nothing happened overnight.

I'm not sure what triggered the turn around all I know is that the afternoon and the close were strong. Was lucky not to get closed out of some longs today that ended up performing well.

The market will deal with whatever happens overseas tonight tomorrow but I doubt the XAO will go down by 4% if the DOW goes down by another 2% tonight (famous last words)

Seems to be some strength in the market atm but it would need to break 5200 with some conviction to have me feeling more relaxed about a decent rally.


----------



## CanOz (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> This is not entirely correct.
> 
> The XAO opened down due to the DOW, we were under 5000 for most of the morning. So I don't think anyone was pretending nothing happened overnight.
> 
> ...




I see Rio reported a good result, was that enough to spur a rally or was it after the bell?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## white_goodman (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> If he's going to get page space in Smart Investor he might as well say something memorable.  I find both of these targets very hard to fathom, but the latter especially so.




4164 target...little specific aint it?

i personally think that we havent seen the worst of it yet, the economy is on the knife edge atm and i beleive we may hit some sort of recession, though i dont know to what magnitude...

low 4000's seems quite feasible


----------



## noident (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> I see Rio reported a good result, was that enough to spur a rally or was it after the bell?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...




Well, RIO's result came in at 4pm and the market started to recover pretty much after it fell on the open...


----------



## Porper (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yes, you are right Tech, I have read probably every one of your posts since joining, thank you.
> 
> Maybe skyhawk will be following every one of wavepickers posts also.
> 
> There are some great contributors on this site.





We all have our favourite posters.When a newbie nothing wrong with that, infact it can be a good influence .

If into Elliot Wave Wavepicker was probably the most knowledgable on this site bar none.
He also put his analysis on here for all to see.A lot of the so called Guru's on here do not and only post after the fact hindsight trades.

I have no idea about his success rate, but he wasn't afraid to put himself up for scrutany.


----------



## CanOz (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



noident said:


> Well, RIO's result came in at 4pm and the market started to recover pretty much after it fell on the open...




Ahh, right. I just tuned in a few minutes ago and saw the recovery and the RIO ann. 

I wonder what the volume was like today, as a good dose of it and a high close might indicate a little rally may be on the cards?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Porper (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> I wonder what the volume was like today, as a good dose of it and a high close might indicate a little rally may be on the cards?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...




Very light volume Can.It was a good comeback today but we are just range bound i.m.o.

We are just as likely to get a rally in the US tonight only for us to go down tomorrow.

A pretty dire market to trade, that is what I am finding anyway, although I don't day trade so can't comment on market conditions for that.

I am hoping for the next leg lower to arrive soon, this last low didn't appear convincing and the rise since certainly in no way can be seen as impulsive.Although we could also say that the longer this consolidation goes on the more chance that it is a solid bottom.

So really I don't know


----------



## nomore4s (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I've been having good success with retail type stocks lately - strange in this type of market(?)

Some good trades I've had lately - taken mainly as short term swing/reversal type trades

WOW, FGL - Probably stopped out early on these 2

Current open trades - DJS, JBH & SEK (not really a retail stock but)

Stocks I've had entry signals on but not taken due to not wanting to carry too many in this sector - BBG & HVN - in hindsight I should have taken them  but I suppose it's all about managing risk atm. May still get a chance to enter these stocks if another entry signal appears (lower low & strength)

Has anyone else noticed this sector rebounding?

JBH & DJS in particular seem to be trending nicely atm


----------



## CanOz (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Very light volume Can.It was a good comeback today but we are just range bound i.m.o.
> 
> We are just as likely to get a rally in the US tonight only for us to go down tomorrow.
> 
> ...




Thanks for that Porper, FWIW i agree with you 100%. I haven't traded the Aussie Market for a month or more, got burned on slippage too many times, thought i'd stick to the US.

In the US there is a little descending Triangle playing out on the ES and last night it almost touched the bottom. I sort of thought maybe a bounce and then hopefully a decline from that. Volume's been light in the US too, as seasonally expected. 

Woeful market to trade but excellent for learning how to manage risk in a choppy market. I too am hoping for a slide equal to the last leg. Anything can happen, lots of speculation about it at the moment, what with the conventions going on and all. 

I've got some Capital gains queries for you, i 'll PM you when i get a spare moment.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (26 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Very light volume Can.It was a good comeback today but we are just range bound i.m.o.




Not from the Gents that matter. Those nutty SPI traders came out with some very aggressive volume today. And the result was.........As always when the BOYZ come out to play a large range day in the opposite direction the punters expect.


----------



## Whiskers (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Good to see our permabull has not been discouraged by being wrong so often.
> 
> This is a secondary correction in a bear market. The bottom is yet to come. October should be good.




I'm not a permabull, davo. I'm just pragmatic. :

...and when have I been wrong? 

A "_secondary correction in a bear market_"... BULLoney.

Look here mate... just follow this space and you'll be right. 



Whiskers said:


> I like it! The market is plugging away making slow, but steady progress.
> 
> Looking pretty well bought today though. I'd say a couple of days off are in order now... back to say about 5020/30ish, before chugging on up to 5200 or so.




US looking like finishing pretty flat. Commodities off a bit. Oil and Gold not a lot changed, but I know which way they will eventually go... so it looks like a flat to slightly backward day for the Aus bouse.

Just as I predicted... hear that, predicted it would.


----------



## wayneL (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I'm not a permabull, davo. I'm just pragmatic. :
> 
> ...and when have I been wrong?
> 
> ...



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_biases


----------



## Porper (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> I've got some Capital gains queries for you, i 'll PM you when i get a spare moment.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...





Capital gains queries, what's that again ?

I think I can remember those, is that where the market just doesn't keep chopping around taking your money from you ?


----------



## dhukka (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I'm not a permabull, davo. I'm just pragmatic. :
> 
> ...and when have I been wrong?
> 
> ...




Talk about delusional. You get a couple of days right and you're nostradamous. Noone has been more consistently wrong than you with respect to your calls on the direction of the markets and the economy for that matter.


----------



## skyQuake (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XJO failed 40s again. Nothing bullish till that level gets smashed.

EDIT... suddenly i realize that this is an XAO not XJO thread...lol.
all previous posts and targets were JO based


----------



## Real1ty (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Capital gains queries, what's that again ?
> 
> I think I can remember those, is that where the market just doesn't keep chopping around taking your money from you ?




Ahhhh, the good old days:


----------



## Whiskers (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_biases






> *Cognitive biases are instances of evolved mental behaviour*. Some are presumably adaptive, for example, *because they lead to more effective actions or enable faster decisions*. Others presumably result from a lack of appropriate mental mechanisms, or from the misapplication of a mechanism that is adaptive under different circumstances.




Thanks for that wayneL. 



dhukka said:


> Talk about delusional. You get a couple of days right and you're nostradamous. Noone has been more consistently wrong than you with respect to your calls on the direction of the markets and the economy for that matter.




*Hey dhukka, how many times have you put a precise forecast on the forum for critique*? *None *that I recall... please correct me if I'm wrong.

As for my 'precise' forecasts, you obviously don't get around the forum enough.

Who's dellusional! My post that you refer to has been pretty spot on.

Some that come to mind that I specifically posted;


The peak of RAU last year,
the EXACT end point of wave B, I think most people call it, of the XAO,
The peak of LOD a few weeks ago,
the recovery and minor top reversal of MDX the last few days,
the top of oil and continuing fall... oil again thread,
the peak of gold last year (I think I posted that) and the recent bottom of gold... gold thread,
and lets not forget the bottom of the XAO... which is still in tact.
oh, and to stay long BHP despite software alerts of possible shorts on a recent thread tech/a started,
the top of the AUD, and
the bottom of the USD index.

Now lets be clear, there are plenty of others doing or capable of doing what I'm doing and better... but many couldn't be be bothered copping such vitriol from .......... for their trouble, instead of 'professional' or at least curtious critique.

Me, on the other hand... I intend to stand by the battlements to defend to the last standing man, woman and child, the rights, liberty and sanity of anyone that isn't permantly and irreversibly affected by PermaBear syndrome. :


----------



## nomore4s (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Thanks for that wayneL.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




You're a guru whiskers, just keep telling everyone how good you are.


----------



## Whiskers (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> You're a guru whiskers, just keep telling everyone how good you are.




LOL, your tongue in cheek I presume. 

No actually, I'm normally fairly shy and timid. 

I'm just picking up on a lot of tips and information from the forum. As I said there are no doubt plenty of others that are doing a better job, but when bad manners and unprofessionalism creeps in and starts verbalising and slandering people I get my gander up a bit to straighten them out... otherwise there would be no good news here... everything would be construed by the sad permabears to be just a temporary respite from the virtual end of the world.


----------



## dhukka (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Thanks for that wayneL.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




You've listed 10 times you have claimed to be right. I could easily list 20 when you have been wrong. Do you really want me to dig up every time you've been wrong? You know it will be embarrassing. Anyway it appears you're only kidding yourself as others have indicated.

As for making specific forecasts, I don't often do it for the simple fact that I have very little idea about short term movements of the stockmarket. Since this forum is dominated by traders and technical analysis a lot of people forget, or don't seem to be able to fathom, that short term market movements are of little interest. However I have made a specific call on the XAO bottoming out between 3400 - 3800 and on another thread said ANZ will trade closer to $10 than $15 by the time it's seen the worst. 

The only other time I have made predictions about the short term movement of the market is on my blog. Every month I make a prediction about whether the market(XAO) will go up or down the following month. I've been doing it since June last year. In 14 months I got it right 10 times. However I am not silly enough to think it has anything to do with a superior ability to forecast monthly movements.

I can see the point of putting up forecasts for everyone to see and critique if you are willing to admit when you are wrong and learn from your mistakes but unfortunately for you, you don't fit into that category. Kind of reminds me of a little pearl of wisdom I once read:



> it is better to remain silent and thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.




You've certainly removed all doubt Whiskers.


----------



## dhukka (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> LOL, your tongue in cheek I presume.
> 
> No actually, I'm normally fairly shy and timid.
> 
> I'm just picking up on a lot of tips and information from the forum. As I said there are no doubt plenty of others that are doing a better job, but when bad manners and unprofessionalism creeps in and starts verbalising and slandering people I get my gander up a bit to straighten them out... otherwise there would be no good news here... *everything would be construed by the sad permabears to be just a temporary respite from the virtual end of the world*.




Once again with the straw man arguments. We hear this continually about anyone who has a bearish outlook on anything whether it be housing or the stockmarket. It is simply a platitude that doesn't hold any water.  Many of us have seen bear markets and economic cycles before and know they end and that we eventually come out of them.


----------



## Whiskers (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> As for making specific forecasts, I don't often do it for the simple fact that *I have very little idea about short term movements of the stockmarket*.




Fortunately, some of us do. 



> Since this forum is dominated by traders and technical analysis a lot of people forget, or don't seem to be able to fathom, *that short term market movements are of little interest*.




Well, how about that. I guess if your an armchair critic and only count your money box every decade or so, it probably wouldn't matter much.

But for those of us that trade, the short term swings are VERY important.



> However I have made a specific call on the XAO bottoming out between 3400 - 3800 and on another thread said ANZ will trade closer to $10 than $15 by the time it's seen the worst.




Yes and those targets are still over the otherside of the back of bourke somewhere and simillarly 'lost' in the outback.



> I can see the point of putting up forecasts for everyone to see and critique if you are willing to admit when you are wrong and learn from your mistakes but [cut]




This is what I mean by verballing people... you know, like crooked cops put words in peoples mouths and witnesses to try to make a case out of lousy investigation.

Put up your facts without the name calling and (attempted) verballing and get on with the critique of the data and forecasts. 

What was another one of your unprovoked and unsolicited lines that you used on another thread... something like, "Do ya punk". 

C'mon dhukka, how about starting to act a bit professional in your language at least, if not your expertise.

The day I start resorting to such pathetic name calling, someone come and shoot me.


----------



## theasxgorilla (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

C'mon gents.  I agree it's fun to lock horns and let out some hot air, and besides consensus and mutual agreement would be boreish.  However please let's keep it at an intellectual level.


----------



## dhukka (27 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Fortunately, some of us do.




Yes some do, although you can't include yourself in that category because your track record clearly shows you can't. 





Whiskers said:


> Well, how about that. I guess if your an armchair critic and only count your money box every decade or so, it probably wouldn't matter much.
> 
> But for those of us that trade, the short term swings are VERY important.




You've missed the point here Whiskers, FOR ME it's not important, I fully understand that for people who trade the markets it is important.  





> Yes and those targets are still over the otherside of the back of bourke somewhere and simillarly 'lost' in the outback.




Well time will tell and unlike yourself I'll freely admit to getting it wrong. 




> This is what I mean by verballing people... you know, like crooked cops put words in peoples mouths and witnesses to try to make a case out of lousy investigation.
> 
> Put up your facts without the name calling and (attempted) verballing and get on with the critique of the data and forecasts.




As posted here previously, there are 5 examples of your wrong calls that took about 20 minutes to find on just one thread. Do you want more? 



> What was another one of your unprovoked and unsolicited lines that you used on another thread... something like, "Do ya punk".




Dear oh dear you need to get out more. This is a line from a Dirty Harry movie that I suspected was well known, maybe not? I was asking whether you want to bet 10 cartons of beer instead of one. 



> C'mon dhukka, how about starting to act a bit professional in your language at least, if not your expertise.




see above, there was no name calling. 



> The day I start resorting to such pathetic name calling, someone come and shoot me.




If that day comes, let me know if you need a hand.


----------



## davo8 (28 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> But for those of us that trade, the short term swings are VERY important.(




Of course, and if you're making short term forecasts you should say so, clearly. That's not the way your posts read, IMHO.

My recollection is that you have consistently called a bottom and recovery on at least 3 occasions, at various points between 5500-6000 and you've been wrong every time and you're still wrong. 

My interest is a time frame of weeks to months to years. Bear markets provide massive opportunities for long investors when they finally do bottom, but only when the false bottom-callers have finally been flushed out and gone home. That time is at least months away, and perhaps up to a year. For an example, look at Oct 1992 or Mar 2003, with gains of 50% inside a year, spread across all sectors.

Your charts and waves are no use when the events unfolding are not priced into the market. Your short term bottoms are just secondary corrections and traps as the world slides into recession. Call them as you see them, but repeated after me: this is not THE bottom.


----------



## Porper (28 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> , but repeated after me: this is not THE bottom.




I doesn't matter what form of T/A or F/A you use, nobody that I know of has predicted this latest bear market accurately, that includes the experts.

You will always get people spouting they called it, let's face it we can only go up, down or sideways so some people will call it correctly some of the time.Nobody all of the time.

Bottom line is none of us know if this is a bottom or not, we only make educated guesses.

If anybody can prove otherwise please divuldge.

Strict risk/money management is essential to survive in this market i.m.o. a lot of newbies and others wont make it.

It is clear now why the saying "95% give money to the 5%" is probably true.


----------



## Whiskers (28 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> I doesn't matter what form of T/A or F/A you use, nobody that I know of has predicted this latest bear market accurately, that includes the experts.
> 
> 
> Bottom line is none of us know if this is a bottom or not, we only make educated guesses.




I think thats the point, porper. 

We can feel confident enough that we are attuned to the right chords that are moving the market to commit to something or not. In this caper the proof comes later. 

I think the term is judgement. It's a personality thing to a large extent. There have been some good threads about personality types and how they tend to behave and trade. I know my style well and work with that. Part of my traits is being up the front, sometimes too far ahead of   the paradigm shift. 

Others like to take less risks and hang around further back in the paragigm shift, ie wait to see the proof before they move. 

Some hang around or even fall behind the paradigm shift. They would be the ones that tend to buy at the top and sell at the bottom when emotions and sentiment are at their peak.

From my technical indicators, I'm thinking the XAO will probably come back a tad tomorrow again and maybe monday before completing minor wave 1 up.

I'm thinking a bit of fridayitis and also oil is due to make a new low anytime, probably not a big move lower, but lower none the less. This will cause BHP to retreat a bit because of it's weight in the index and regardless of oil BHP looks set for a minor correction anyway.


----------



## Whiskers (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well oil nudged up a little taking gold with it to within a smidgen on my target, now they are both on the way down in line with forecasts.

The permabears and doomsdayers will probably get a bit perked up again with that, : but I've got orders waiting to get filled in the temporary malay. 

So, it's off to bed for a good night sleep now and see what booty I can reap tomorrow.


----------



## Porper (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Well oil nudged up a little taking gold with it to within a smidgen on my target, now they are both on the way down in line with forecasts.
> 
> The permabears and doomsdayers will probably get a bit perked up again with that, : but I've got orders waiting to get filled in the temporary malay.
> 
> So, it's off to bed for a good night sleep now and see what booty I can reap tomorrow.





Whiskers, the market has a tendency to give us a good kicking when we  think we are invincible.

We all have times when we call it right, this can last for what seems to be ages.

This is when we are at our most vulnerable.You obviously think you have got it sussed.I suggest you are approaching this point.


----------



## wayneL (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Well oil nudged up a little taking gold with it to within a smidgen on my target, now they are both on the way down in line with forecasts.
> 
> The permabears and doomsdayers will probably get a bit perked up again with that, : but I've got orders waiting to get filled in the temporary malay.
> 
> So, it's off to bed for a good night sleep now and see what booty I can reap tomorrow.




Temporary Malay? I always thought once a Malay, always a Malay. 

I'm actually wondering which forecasts gold and oil are in line with, 'cause they don't line up to any I've seen.


----------



## Whiskers (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Whiskers, the market has a tendency to give us a good kicking when we  think we are invincible.
> 
> We all have times when we call it right, this can last for what seems to be ages.
> 
> This is when we are at our most vulnerable.You obviously think you have got it sussed.I suggest you are approaching this point.




Hi, porper... yeah I know that all too well. But *my main aim is to provoke more discussion re positive events and investment opportunities for the average investor, cos I was starting to get a bit depressed by what I believe is an illogical and unjustified imbalance and over preponderance of bad news and negativity towards the Aus economy and investment oppertunities for the average person.*

Also as I have said often, I'm relatively new to EW although I'm very familiar with a few other  types of cycle analysis and I am trying to encourage intellectual dialogue or even healthy debate on, to what extent the market is predictable. Too that extent I'm hoping for some critique particularly from other EW'ers re their interpretation of the signs.

For me my other cycles analysis has proven to be very helpful for me in other aspects of my life and I'm beginning to think maybe EW is the missing link for me to much better quantify and time the market moves re entry and exit points.

At the end of the day, these types of forums are often over-run with rampers and ego hounds. This forum does a good job of maintaining some integrity of it's posts. While I'm having a bit of fun atm rebuffing some of the negativity, I can assure you I have been putting in some pretty long hours of research so that I'm happy to put my money where my mouth is, as opposed to just being an armchair critic... so that my posts and other that post opportunities in these markets are seen as more for their educational value than interpreted as just an ego trip. So I will be having a bit of a break to recharge my batteries before too long.



wayneL said:


> Temporary Malay? I always thought once a Malay, always a Malay.




WayneL... you damn pedant, you... 

Ok you got me... I'll blame the late night... it should be malaise!  

mal·aise (m-lz, -lz) n.
1. A vague feeling of bodily discomfort, as at the beginning of an illness.
2. A general sense of depression or unease



> I'm actually wondering which forecasts gold and oil are in line with, 'cause they don't line up to any I've seen.




Why, mine of course! :

But surely, I'm not the only one who sees oil and gold going in opposite directions and consolidating for awhile. 

But, just out of interest, what do the forecasts you see for oil and gold say?


----------



## wayneL (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> WayneL... you damn pedant, you...
> 
> Ok you got me... I'll blame the late night... it should be malaise!
> 
> ...




You sure you don't mean:

*Melee*

me·lee     Audio Help   /ˈmeɪleɪ, meɪˈleɪ, ˈmɛleɪ/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[mey-ley, mey-ley, mel-ey] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun
1.	a confused hand-to-hand fight or struggle among several people.
2.	confusion; turmoil; jumble: the melee of Christmas shopping.
Also, mÃªlÃ©e.

Or perhaps *MielÃ©*?

Then you could see what comes out in the wash. 

Boom Boom


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What about *malleable,*

*mal·le·a·ble* (m
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





l
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	







-
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




-b
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




l) 
_adj._ *1. *Capable of being shaped or formed, as by hammering or pressure: _a malleable metal._
*2. *Easily controlled or influenced; tractable.
*3. *Able to adjust to changing circumstances; adaptable: 
*4. *Able to adjust to past circumstances to suit: Whiskers mind is malleable because he only remembers the time he is right.


----------



## Whiskers (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> What about *malleable,*
> 
> *4. *Able to adjust to past circumstances to suit: Whiskers mind is malleable because he only remembers the time he is right.




Augh c'mon TH, that's as off the mark as some of the negativity and bruised egos around the place. 

Just as a point of interest, I didn't start this point scoring, right, wrong, play the man instead of the ball sideshow. I've never professed to be perfect only to offer some counter thoughts and possibilities.

It's only more recently that I have made a couple of hard and fast predictions.

Unfortunately, it's the bad sports and sore loosers that play the man instead of the ball and then try to verball the umpire and the crowd that the opposition was 'bad'.

Good sports just get on with the game and focus on where to score the next goal. :


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers i was never that good at ball sports. 

But I do love a bit of sport......

*sport* 
_Noun_
*1*. an activity for exercise, pleasure, or competition: _your favourite sport_ 
*2*. such activities collectively: _the minister for sport_ 
*3*. the enjoyment gained from a pastime: _just for the sport of it_ 
*4*. playful or good-humoured joking: _I only did it in sport_ 
*5*. _Informal_ a person who accepts defeat or teasing cheerfully 
*6*. *make sport of someone* to make fun of someone 
*7*. an animal or plant that is very different from others of the same species, usually because of a mutation 
*8*. _Austral & NZ_ _informal_ a term of address between males 
_Verb_


----------



## Whiskers (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Whiskers i was never that good at ball sports.
> 
> But I do love a bit of sport......
> 
> ...




Ok... but in cricket venacular, I still call it a 'wide' ball... which you can't dismiss a batsman from even if he has a wild swing at it, unless he tries to go for a run, in which case you would have to considerably improve your aim to hit the stumps to get him out.   




Perhaps it should be... mÃªlÃ©e.

MielÃ©?... ah well, since the market is being a bit resiliant to easing back so far, I'll go and do my washing in my el-cheapo 'Samsung'.


----------



## Awesomandy (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ok, so it appears that nobody here knows their sport rules 100%... Anyway sport details aside, the XAO is knocking at the 5200 level today. Shouldn't we be all watching that?


----------



## dhukka (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Augh c'mon TH, that's as off the mark as some of the negativity and bruised egos around the place.
> 
> Just as a point of interest, I didn't start this point scoring, right, wrong, play the man instead of the ball sideshow. I've never professed to be perfect only to offer some counter thoughts and possibilities.
> 
> ...




We all live our own realities and yours is defintiely unique. No you've never claimed to be perfect, but nor have you ever admitted to being wrong. I think that is what most people object to. When it comes to your past predictions, you see what you want to see, and that's fine but you should not whinge about being called on it.  You also assume for some reason, that  because you make predictions that you should be immune from criticism from those who don't make predictions. You do not inhabit the moral highground because you decide to make predictions. 

I can't speak for others, but the main reason I don't make predicitons, particularly over the short term, is that for the vast majority of the time, I don't have a clue. Not because I lack some technical skills or understanding but because I realise that humans are notoriously bad at predicting. In short prediction is a mugs game and there is plethora of evidence that show that to be the case. That's not to say people shouldn't try, if you want to make predictions knock yourself out, a lot can be learned along the way, but just don't be surprised if poeple have a good old chuckle at your attempts.     

Even poeple like wavepicker, who seems to have garnered a following, have a success rate no better than a coin toss. The problem is people have a natural tendency to remember the right calls and forget about the wrong ones. Probably for the same reason you can go to the bookshop and find many books on how to make a million dollars but you won't find many on how to lose the same amount. This tendency can falsely lead to the belief that your methods are working or that you have some special predictve powers rather than just blind luck. 

My call of 3400  - 3800 on the XAO is not based on any techincal analysis, at best it is an educated guess based on economic fundamentals, but since I know that forecasting is a mugs game, I don't have any solid convictions that my targets will be realised. If they are, I will have to ackowledge that it had more to do with luck than good analysis.  

Also the claim that you are simply positing your predictions for educational value are disingenuous at best. The fact that you feel it is your duty to take on the cause of the 'average investor' by providing them with 'opportunities' speaks volumes to the size of your ego. 

btw - didn't you predict the market would be down today?



Whiskers said:


> From my technical indicators, I'm thinking the XAO will probably come back a tad tomorrow again and maybe monday before completing minor wave 1 up.


----------



## rub92me (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> Ok, so it appears that nobody here knows their sport rules 100%... Anyway sport details aside, the XAO is knocking at the 5200 level today. Shouldn't we be all watching that?



Naah, the Whiskers - dhukka duel is far more entertaining. :


----------



## Whiskers (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rub92me said:


> Naah, the Whiskers - dhukka duel is far more entertaining. :




Now, now mate... you keep your eye on the job now.

I'm just having a bit of sideshow fun with some armchair critics splitting hairs. 



Awesomandy said:


> Ok, so it appears that nobody here knows their sport rules 100%... Anyway sport details aside, the XAO is knocking at the 5200 level today. Shouldn't we be all watching that?




Exactly, Awesomandy.

I'm proud to be half a split hair right ... afterall my initial forecast after the previous couple of flat days was to head for 5200. 

But damit, I must have been getting effected by the permabears when I erred on the side of caution looking for the minuette wave iii to end a bit sooner. But it will come nonetheless, now probably monday as was one of the window days I mentioned. 

But hey, I'm thrilled the market kicked on a bit harder this minuette leg iii. It pushed right through the upper projections like a fresh randy young bull. If ya want me to post another chart with the minuette details just say so.

So, predicting the market is pot luck heh. Well I guess coming from an armchair critic that doesn't trade... I mean where the hell do ya begin to explain... except to say by definition if one is to trade the market one has to make an educated guess at the short term movements. I hope there ain't many of you just taking pot luck, like 'flipping coins' into a poker machine.

But to be fair to my old mate dhukka, he's a brilliant librarian of all manner of statistics and economic ideologies, but the only problem is the market often doesn't give two hoots about economic ideology and past statistics.


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Now, now mate... you keep your eye on the job now.
> 
> ......
> 
> But to be fair to my old mate dhukka, he's a brilliant librarian of all manner of statistics and economic ideologies, but the only problem is the market often doesn't give two hoots about economic ideology and past statistics.




Ha ha! 

Never seen a real trade from either of you actually....

LOL

It's all just words from this side of the fence.......

Post a real trade up for us, just once...


----------



## Whiskers (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Ha ha!
> 
> Never seen a real trade from either of you actually....
> 
> ...




Hows this mate.

The details and charts are posted on the MDX thread.

I didn't get any orders filled today, due to the lovely bullishment/Bullishness (oh what the hell, some pedant will sort that out) of the market... and I aint gonna spit them out till I get my slice of the cheap pie... then I'll crow. 

PS: Just to clear the hot air that I only admit to wins, you will find a recent acknowledgement on the GCR thread that I have cut losses as well as taken profits... you know in the name of pragmatism. Another that I acknowledged somewhere early after joining the forum was NIA now POS.


----------



## lusk (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Hows this mate.
> 
> The details and charts are posted on the MDX thread.
> 
> I didn't get any orders filled today, due to the lovely bullishment/Bullishness (oh what the hell, some pedant will sort that out) of the market... and I aint gonna spit them out till I get my slice of the cheap pie... then I'll crow.




You made money but why did you bail? you cut your winner short.


----------



## Whiskers (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



lusk said:


> You made money but why did you bail? you cut your winner short.




Well that's where I'm applying my newfound interest in EW thanks to the other EW contributers on the forum, I figured it had a too strong minor wave i... it gapped up a fair bit. I reckoned it will come back sooner rather than later to fill the gap for minor wave ii. So I took the oportunity to trade a swing elsewhere in the meantime.

But, I'll be in again when my target is reached... hoping I can spread my cash around enough to cover all my selections.


----------



## dhukka (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> So, predicting the market is pot luck heh. Well I guess coming from an armchair critic that doesn't trade... I mean where the hell do ya begin to explain... except to say by definition if one is to trade the market one has to make an educated guess at the short term movements. I hope there ain't many of you just taking pot luck, like 'flipping coins' into a poker machine.




I didn't say it was completely pot luck, what I am saying is don't underestimate the role of luck or randomness when you make a correct call. As said before, we all suffer from the bias of wanting to believe that because we got it right, it must be because our method is right. E.g. I went to the pub on Friday night wearing a bright red shirt and got laid, ergo I'll wear the same shirt to the pub next Friday and get laid again.  

All the studies I have seen done on the ability of so called experts to predict future events show that they have no better predictive powers than the average punter, (and are sometimes worse) be it in economics, politics or the stockmarket. As you know (or you should know) a profitable trader does not necessarily need to get his calls right. Here's a quote from Nick Radge:



> If you are like most people and believe that most important aspect of successful trading is being correct, unfortunately, it's your own ego you're caressing. You can be be a highly profitable trader and lose more often than not - indeed, some of the world's top traders lose more often than not.




Some may argue that because they have years of experience and have studied various forms of technical analysis that they have an advantage in predicting market movements. That may be so, but I'm willing to bet someone flipping a coin could probably do as well 99% of the experts. Go back a year or more on this thread and show me all the experts that predicted where the the XAO would be.  

We could easily test my theory. Open a new thread and post every Friday by 5:00 p.m, what direction you think the market will move the following week. I'll flip a coin, heads = up, tails = down and I'll post that. Of course it would have to be run over a considerable length of time to get a decent sample size but no reason it couldn't be done.


----------



## dhukka (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Ha ha!
> 
> Never seen a real trade from either of you actually....
> 
> ...




I think you're a little slow kennas since I've told you before, I don't trade, so why would I post up a trade?


----------



## brty (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi,

Dhukka,



> what I am saying is don't underestimate the role of luck or randomness






> a success rate no better than a coin toss




What is random???

How can it be that yesterdays market action that affects the actions of many market participants today, be regarded as 'random' in any shape or form??

The factors that affect stock movements are many and varied, but thinking it is random is a mistake. 

A coin toss is a separate event from the last toss, the coin does not have a memory, that is random.

The market behaves in ways that can by measured by probabilities according  to past events. On any occasion the bet can be wrong. A 50/50 system can be a huge winner if you are prepared to cut the losses immediately while aiming for much larger winners. Failure to understand that, and just pick on the bad calls, means a lack of understanding of the game.

We all make many predictions/bets everyday, with high probabilities on our side. For instance, whenever you drive your car, you are betting that the guy  in the car coming the other way, will stay on his side of the road. Most of the time that prediction/bet is successful, but for some it is the wrong bet, that has happened to me. 

Your theory of having a coin toss vs market picking direction for the following week is a silly idea, because my choice is up every week. Past history will show you that the indexes have a positive bias over the long term. Your random coin toss will lose.

brty


----------



## dhukka (29 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> Hi,
> 
> Dhukka,
> 
> ...




brty,

When you decide to answer my questions that I've repeatedly asked of you, I might consider answering yours.


----------



## brty (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi 

Is this what you are referring to, it is old ????

Still you have no answers..




> Again, what do you consider to be medium term? And if you don't mind, could you answer the question that I asked twice before but you refused to answer regarding your claim that:
> 
> Quote:
> Originally Posted by brty View Post
> ...




The ANZ bank one was simple, the SP had fallen ~40% The $1.6b was ~40% less profit. That was clearly obvious to anyone who knew anything about bank shares. Also any losses early on, that are unexpected, are just about always much less than the final picture, hence the market gets conditioned to feel better about the events.

The medium term?? Anything from a few months to a couple of years.

Now about the questions I asked of you.............that you did not answer...



> If you have better data going back to 1900, then plenty of people as well as I would love to see it.
> Going back to 1980 is a cinch for absolute highs and lows, but that is not the longer term. We can only compare like with like.
> 
> In your opinion is not making any type of comparison at all with history a better alternative??
> ...




brty


----------



## dhukka (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> Hi
> The ANZ bank one was simple, the SP had fallen ~40% The $1.6b was ~40% less profit. That was clearly obvious to anyone who knew anything about bank shares.




Actually it's quite the opposite, to anyone who knows anything about bank shares, your statement is quite ridiculous. Since I used to be a bank analyst I might know a little about the topic. Firstly, you posted that back on March 11th (thanks for getting back to me so soon) ANZ at that time closed at *$20.85*. 

So is it your belief then, that the stock price should at all times perfectly reflect the earnings expectations of the company? Sounds suspiciously like the silly EMH hypothesis. Why does a 40% drop in the share price necessarily mean the market is pricing in 40% lower earnings? Could it be that the market is pricing in future uncertainty, maybe a realization that the bank was overpriced? Some US banks will make full year losses this year and next, should their share prices therefore be $0? 

Your belief was obviously that the stock price back in March had too much downside priced into it. So you must think its really underpriced now at $16.61?  I assume your going long since the market (according to your rational) is now pricing in a 50% drop in earnings even though the company gave guidance that earnings will be down 20-25%. Must be a no brainer.




brty said:


> Also any losses early on, that are unexpected, are just about always much less than the final picture, hence the market gets conditioned to feel better about the events.




Not sure I can decipher this but if investors have learned anything from the current meltdown in finacial stocks. The first estimates of losses are always the rosiest and the final numbers are much worse. Every quarter we hear that writedons are over but some (such as Citi and Merrill) keep writing down huge amounts even after statements to the contrary just months prior. Anaylsts of US bank stocks have been revising their forecasts consistently down for almost a year now.



As for your other questions, I'll get back to you in about 5 months, sounds about reasonable doesn't it?


----------



## brty (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dhukka,

It will probably take you that long to work out an answer, or hope that others have forgotten the questions that you had no answer for.

By the way, here is the other post I made in the line of predictions, that you did not see...



> I would be expecting a pullback over the next month or so as many good stocks are looking a little overbought after there 20-30% rises in the last 2 months.




That was made on the 20th May in the Imminent Market correction thread.

You did not like the monthly close numbers, but offered no alternative, Do you think that history is a useful guide for market moves or not???

brty


----------



## NZTurtle (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Meh, I came on here to read about the XAO, not watch handbags at 30 paces... Can you guys go and start your own thread?
Cheers
T


----------



## Sean K (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> I think you're a little slow kennas since I've told you before, I don't trade, so why would I post up a trade?



Yes, appologies dhukka. I'm out of line. No one actually needs to be trading to have an opinion of where the XAO is going.


----------



## tech/a (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Good morning girls!

XAO still conforming to current analysis.
Here is a weekly chart showing the current wave 4 retracement.

All analysis remains the same for me relative to previous posts.


----------



## Sean K (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Good morning girls!
> 
> XAO still conforming to current analysis.
> Here is a weekly chart showing the current wave 4 retracement.
> ...



Possible 3400 bottom on 5. Crikey! Is that system generated Tech?


----------



## prana (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Possible 3400 bottom on 5. Crikey! Is that system generated Tech?




Dum question, but I thought EW is 5 up and 3 down ? (not 5 down) So we are at the end of the 3'rd down, starting the 1st up ?


----------



## tech/a (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kennas.

See chart.

Prana.
Corrective moves are 3 waves ABC
Longer corrective moves are 5 waves down A
3 waves up B
and 5 waves down again to complete the pattern C


----------



## tech/a (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

P&F gives a very clear picture of where we are currently.

Double top.
This is a 25 piont box size and a 1 box reversal chart.
Tradeguider doesnt plot the 1 box size reversal charts correctly but will do.


----------



## white_goodman (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

im only a beginner at tradeguider but to me from my newbie analysis it looks like the XAO is gonna bounce off and move back down because there wasnt enough effort to get through the top line.... tech/a what do you suggest this chart means?

come to think of it theres increasing volume coming up to the line.... it may go above and then quickly come back down into the range


----------



## motorway (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

tech

I have trouble tracing out the price path on that P&F

O are up it seems ?
X is down ?

But when you move across to a new column
You seem to have a adjacent  Os and Xs

eg the top in July the columns alternate but they are at the same level ?


Possibly the program can not handle a 1 box reversal at all

You could try a 2 box reversal instead
it has a similar trend constant as a one box chart.

try 25 pt and 10 pt .

*when the chart moves across
It has to be initially diagonally

that top in July for example looks wrong*

There appear to be other inaccuracies as well.

eg top at the end of April...
Try and trace the price path..

The three O and three X have to be wrong


motorway


----------



## motorway (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

P&F there is Box and reversal

Here is a 5 reversal 25 pt chart....

Big picture with NO LAG or LOOK back

( is is not a daily weekly monthly but then again it is )

Clear Pattern ?

5 box reversal chart Condenses the fluctuations 
that produce the trend ( grey line) 
Yet it still moves as the mkt moves

LOOK LEFT
What do you see

Also the behavior of the bottoms .

IF there is no trend visible on a 5 rev chart
There probably isn't one

periods of congestion are obvious

This one looks very significant

every change of column is a pure test and response
( intrinsic time ? )

This could be the bottom
The composite man does not wait till it goes down to distribute.
But a move back to the 50% zone would be key..

Looking left it is an obvious zone of support

test response , test response..



You can see a trap move from the bottom of this congestion 

motorway


----------



## Sean K (30 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Kennas.
> 
> See chart.




Yes, nice chart. 

Thanks.


----------



## tech/a (31 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

M/W yes your right.

I'm looking for the settings in the software so I can alter it.
But agree that it doesnt seem to handle 1 box reversals let alone get the direction of X's and Os correct!---just a setting problem I'm sure.


----------



## motorway (31 August 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here is the 25 x 3 reversal chart...

There is a 45 "Diagonal Forecasting"" line drawn from the top.
And I have let the software place the vertical counts
I have put (I hope  ) a logical Horizontal Count...

Note the the pattern ( Not as in technical pattern but the shape of demand and supply ) since clearing the "Diagonal"  

*Break of a triple top with rising supports*

for discussion

The 1 box will break it's diagonal first
the 3 box qualifies and confirms the 1 box
The 5 box condensing the horizontal even more will only break it's diagonal
well after a new trend as emerged..
But can give extreme clarity.


P&F  the chart what it can be is often
mistaken for a particular trading system that make use of the P&F chart
A trading method is not a charting method
with P&F it is often misunderstood as such.

How many ways can one use a bar chart ?
Same !

motorway


----------



## Whiskers (2 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Motorway, I'm working on my P&F, I really am, but they just ain't working for me yet. 

Sorta like my neighbour and an aunty... they can pick up a bit of wire and bend it and devine for water. The neighbour bought the block beside me because he reckoned there was water there in an area not renouned for underground water. Anyway the other day he drilled two shallow holes and got more than enough for house and garden in both. 

But do you think I can get them bludy bits of wire to work for me! 

Anyway, it looks like tomorrow should be down a bit more, but 5300+ looks a real possibility late in the week or next.


----------



## white_goodman (2 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

to my reckoning it hasnt had enough effort to pass through 5200 and will bounce down tomorrow and possibly thursday...


----------



## motorway (3 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Motorway, I'm working on my P&F, I really am, but they just ain't working for me yet.




Whiskers

It is the original  chart of the market's waves

 The waves of just 
demand and supply

The waves the Composite Operator generates.






> A person watching the tide coming in and who wishes to know the exact spot which marks the high tide, sets a stick in the sand at the points reached by the incoming waves until the stick reaches a position where the waves do not come up to it, and finally recede enough to show that the tide has turned.
> 
> Charles Dow





motorway


----------



## theasxgorilla (3 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> You can see a *trap move* from the bottom of this congestion




Sounds ominous...what is a _trap move_ exactly?


----------



## CanOz (3 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

After that reversal last night in the US / commodity sell off, i'll be stuffed if the XAO and XJO don't get taken for 2% today!

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## tech/a (3 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Sounds ominous...what is a _trap move_ exactly?




Trap move was for shorts.


----------



## brty (3 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> what is a trap move exactly?




Head fake, running the stops, bear trap/bull trap. Basically moving the market in the opposite direction of the big upcoming move. 

It is what catches the amateur traders thinking it is another breakout in the current direction.

If you are a large trader, think hedge fund here, then in order to get the volume you need, you need to push the market to where you can get that volume.

brty


----------



## Whiskers (5 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Since the Aus economy is pretty much driven by our agricultural and mineral resources this comparison chart over the last year gives a pretty good visual picture of why the outlook is looking better all the time for the Aus economy.

Oil (in $US) is falling quite rapidly as the USD rises, but gold and commodities are pretty much retaining a steady helm in AUD which all equates to much better terms of trade for the Aus agricultural and mining sectors.

My guess is that it will take at least another three or four months for oil to bottom out probably sub $80, some are suggesting $60. 

Given that the cost of oil has been the most significant driver of production costs and inflation recently, it's only a matter of time until lower oil reflects into a much better local and international busines enviornment.


----------



## wayneL (5 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Since the Aus economy is pretty much driven by our agricultural and mineral resources this comparison chart over the last year gives a pretty good visual picture of why the outlook is looking better all the time for the Aus economy.
> 
> Oil (in $US) is falling quite rapidly as the USD rises, but gold and commodities are pretty much retaining a steady helm in AUD which all equates to much better terms of trade for the Aus agricultural and mining sectors.
> 
> ...




Other folks are a bit more concerned it seems.

SYCOM:


----------



## dhukka (5 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Anyway, it looks like tomorrow should be down a bit more, but 5300+ looks a real possibility late in the week or next.




hmmm......... maybe next week eh Whiskers?


----------



## Whiskers (5 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Other folks are a bit more concerned it seems.
> 
> SYCOM:




Yes indeed wayneL. But that's the fragility of human nature.

At the risk of (as porper warns) an inflated ego being prequel to disaster... I have checked my facts, statisticts and methodology and am not so quietly confident. 

The main issue at the moment is oil. It needs to edge a bit lower to finish the leg A close to $100. The USD index (and stock markets) are chanting at the bit to kick higher, but it needs oil to move a bit more first.

Sorta like a bit of constipation atm. 

I'll post a chart later when I have a bit more time with more analysis to soothe the nerves of all ye bear-dazzled folks.




dhukka said:


> hmmm......... maybe next week eh Whiskers?




Why not, dhukka, after all that was and still is, my forecast!


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> The main issue at the moment is oil.




Really?? I'm pretty sure our biggest market cap sector started breaking down with oil.  And I'm also pretty sure that the XAO made new lows not seen for two years when oil topped out.

So the problem is high oil?? Nothing like a market cliche to gloss over the facts hey?


----------



## Porper (5 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Really?? I'm pretty sure our biggest market cap sector started breaking down with oil.  And I'm also pretty sure that the XAO made new lows not seen for two years when oil topped out.
> 
> So the problem is high oil?? Nothing like a market cliche to gloss over the facts hey?




Quite interesting that a few weeks ago when oil was flying it was bad for the markets.

Quite interesting that now oil is going down.....................it is bad for the markets


----------



## Whiskers (5 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Really?? I'm pretty sure our biggest market cap sector started breaking down with oil.  And I'm also pretty sure that the XAO made new lows not seen for two years when oil topped out.
> 
> So the problem is high oil?? Nothing like a market cliche to gloss over the facts hey?




Well, that's sorta fair enough lagging TA. 

But, it's a bit of a complex FA thing that is driving the markets.

You need to grasp the 'chicken and egg' issues to know how it will unfold.


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whisker the complexity I struggle with is the rubbish you sprout which is not backed by the facts.

You know....... lagging "expert" excuses.


----------



## dhukka (5 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Really?? I'm pretty sure our biggest market cap sector started breaking down with oil.  And I'm also pretty sure that the XAO made new lows not seen for two years when oil topped out.
> 
> So the problem is high oil?? Nothing like a market cliche to gloss over the facts hey?




Well put TH. The high oil nonsense was obvious for anyone who bothered to look at the facts. 

*July 15th* - Oil tops out at USD*$147* and change, the XAO closes at *4910*.

*August 5th* - Oil drops a  sharp *-20%* to about USD*$117*. How does the stockmarket react? Makes a new low at *4882*. 

*September 5th* Oil now at USD*$107.50*, a full *-27%* lower from the peak and where is the stockmarket? Less than *1.0%* higher than where it was when oil peaked. 

Yeah it's obviously all about oil.


----------



## dhukka (5 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Why not, dhukka, after all that was and still is, my forecast!




Ahh well lets see. The XAO closed at 4949.5 today. That means it needs to rise 70 points every day for 5 consecutive days to meet your target. Hell maybe you won't need 5 days, maybe it shoots up 120 points on each of Mon, Tues and Wed. Maybe Hitler will retroactively be awared the Noble peace prize. 

Anyway since I'm a sport and since your a man of your word and willing to put your money where your mouth is, how about we put another carton a beer on the line?


----------



## Whiskers (5 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Whisker the complexity I struggle with is the rubbish you sprout which is not backed by the facts.
> 
> You know....... lagging "expert" excuses.




You know what mate, one really needs to be at peace with oneself... a prerequesate, before you are able to connect to the ' ? ' and just 'know', before one is able to provide metaphysical proof to the satisfaction of the sceptic or uninitiated. 

Gotta dash... but hang in there now and I'll talk to ya more later.


----------



## Whiskers (7 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, here's my weekend musings. I've consulted the '?' and have got the latest word. 

Earlier, I forecast that the XAO will head toward 5300 next stop. 

I hold my hand on my heart and solemnly swear to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, that the XAO will make at least 5278 for the next high, maybe this week... otherwise next week will do.  

Oil may have bottomed for the moment, but it could nudge a little bit closer to 100, before consolidating sideways say 100 to 120 range before going south again.

The AUD has fallen to just above .80, but will go lower on strength of the USD. This has reflected in an effective modest AUD price rise for gold and commodities generally. Better terms of trade for Aus businesses generally I think.


----------



## Nyden (7 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Well, here's my weekend musings. I've consulted the '?' and have got the latest word.
> 
> Earlier, I forecast that the XAO will head toward 5300 next stop.
> 
> ...





Whiskers mate, you're one of those posters that really tick me off :

Why do you insist on using words like *will*, and phrases like "before going"? You are entitled to your forecasts, and I appreciate any and all member contributions - but that's what they are, forecasts! Heck, weathermen don't even communicate their forecasts with such "confidence"; as they have the humility to understand that the forecast may be wrong.

The AUD might not go lower, the situation in the US may deteriorate more so, and the AUD might still make a climb back to parity. I don't know if this will happen, and neither do you.

I can see from this, as well as other threads - that a few people share my annoyance here. All I'm asking at least, is that you reduce the cocky-tone, and quit portraying yourself as such a permabull! Accept that there are problems and potentially huge risks in this current market; and we're not going to suddenly climb back to the glory days overnight.


Edit:
Oh, and it's probably rather disrespectful as well. Many people are losing a lot of hard earned money lately (myself not included  with this awful market, and I'm sure it isn't exactly heart-warming to them to listen to you spouting off on how fantastic things are to be.


----------



## Whiskers (7 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nyden, don't get ticked off (with me or the market) mate... get even. 

Find out why you are not having any 'luck' picking the market. Just as an aside, there is no such thing as luck. We all make our own destiny.

Some have also been 'ticked' off with all the doom and gloom sayers... some of them just armchair critics.

But me, I put my money where my mouth is and I'm here to show anyone that is prepared to listen and do the hard work for their own particular circimstances that there are good profit making opportunities out there.

Again Nyden, what's the point of getting ticked off. That's just emotional frustration coming out! Remember investing and trading decisions should not be made on an emotional basis. 



> Edit:
> Oh, and it's probably rather disrespectful as well. Many people are losing a lot of hard earned money lately (myself not included ) with this awful market, and I'm sure it isn't exactly heart-warming to them to listen to you spouting off on how fantastic things are to be.




Well, would you prefer I drown them in self pity and endorse the doomsdayers... and just curl up under a rock somewhere waiting for... err becoming a self-fulling profecy.


----------



## M34N (7 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Well, here's my weekend musings. I've consulted the '?' and have got the latest word.
> 
> Earlier, I forecast that the XAO will head toward 5300 next stop.
> 
> ...




Whiskers, a couple points/questions.

Firstly, thanks for at least having a go and telling us what you think may happen instead of just going over what has already happened - I, for one, appreciate it and enjoy reading your posts/analysis. 

Now, I'm interested in what makes you think the market will move this way? And more importantly, which sectors do you expect to perform the best/worst?

Cheers mate.


----------



## white_goodman (7 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hmmm i have a different view to whiskers atm... i believe where in a sideways trading range and after the last days strong move down i think it will retest jsut above in between the blue lines and if theres a lack of effort itll move down through the blue trading lines and then through the black ones...

and by a few peoples reckoning finishing off wave C to 4200ish...


take this all with a grain of salt... sea salt its better for cell volumisation...


----------



## Whiskers (7 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Whiskers, a couple points/questions.
> 
> Firstly, thanks for at least having a go and telling us what you think may happen instead of just going over what has already happened - I, for one, appreciate it and enjoy reading your posts/analysis.
> 
> ...



Hi M34N

"Have a go"... that's the good old Aussie motto, eh.

Well from a FA  perspective one has to find out what is actually moving the market at a given time. I believe that the oil price has overshadowed all the other subprime and credit crisis issues to the point of exassipating the dire outlook for the economy when the aforementioned issues were past their worst, at least in terms of the stock markets. 

Then I have made some judgements about the flow-on effects such as a higher USD and better commodity prices in AUD as a consequence.. in essence better terms of trade because of the lower AUD. 

Then I use TA to help determine the mini cycles of the ASD/AUD, price of Oil and gold (and commodities), the AXO and my trades.

For example I use a number of taylored and tested lagging indicators which I find helpful in determining the strength/fullness of a swing/cycle, some shown on chart... eg an easy one is the last candle near the bottom of the bollinger bands is an indication that the stock/index is getting close to finishing it's trend and may reverse. Also the trend is showing higher highs and higher lows. Another is the Elliot Wave wave count shown which is the source of my minimum target. Mind you I'm still serving my apprenticeship with EW, but I feel as though I've taken to it like a duck to water.

Of course it's not a simple as one or a collection of  indicators. It ultimately boils down to the quality of ones research and methodology and the faith one accrues in it.

But having said all that, there's risk analysis... that other traders talk about often. For me I proof read/test as many of my analysis as I can... then look at the risk v reward of my trade/nvestment choices. I'm biased toward the resource sector, excluding oil atm and selected retail and financial's.

Hi white_goodman



> and by a few peoples reckoning finishing off wave C to 4200ish...




I don't subscribe to that target. As I understand most people using that target base it on the length of wave C = wave A. But that is a subjective analysis with EW that people have to decide upon.

For me, wave C does not have to equal wave A, It can also be .618% of wave A which is where I place it modified slightly by other proportions in lower degree cycles.


----------



## Nyden (8 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Nyden, don't get ticked off (with me or the market) mate... get even.
> 
> Find out why you are not having any 'luck' picking the market. Just as an aside, there is no such thing as luck. We all make our own destiny.
> 
> ...




Heh, been out of the market for quite a while Whiskers; I've missed a hell of a lot of losses - if that isn't smart investing, I don't know what is :

So, no - I've had no "bad luck" picking the market. 

What has frustrated me whiskers is your attitude - not your analysis. I've gotten just as ticked off at gold bugs - spouting what *will* happen ... ugh, I hate that word with a passion.

You just sound a lot like those "experts" on the Nine news a few months back; telling mum and dad investors not to sell, that we're oversold, due for a bounce ... and look at us now. Poor blighters.


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

US Futs are loving the Freddie & Fannie bail-out, Up over 2%

Should be a nice gap up on the open.


----------



## nomore4s (8 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> What has frustrated me whiskers is your attitude - not your analysis.




Hit the nail on the head there Nyden.


Unless we see 5200 taken out with some conviction I tend to have a slightly bearish view atm.
The line of least resistance appears to be down atm but that could well change within a couple of days.


----------



## Porper (8 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Hit the nail on the head there Nyden.
> 
> 
> Unless we see 5200 taken out with some conviction I tend to have a slightly bearish view atm.
> The line of least resistance appears to be down atm but that could well change within a couple of days.




I don't have the chart at hand, but if you plot all the interest rate cuts, positive intervention by the fed etc you will notice that all good news initially produced a rally followed by the largest sell offs to date.

"It will be different this time"................love that quote


----------



## Whiskers (8 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> What has frustrated me whiskers is your attitude - not your analysis. I've gotten just as ticked off at gold bugs - spouting what *will* happen ... ugh, I hate that word with a passion.
> 
> You just sound a lot like those "experts" on the Nine news a few months back; telling mum and dad investors not to sell, that we're oversold, due for a bounce ... and look at us now. Poor blighters.






nomore4s said:


> Hit the nail on the head there Nyden.
> 
> 
> Unless we see 5200 taken out with some conviction I tend to have a slightly bearish view atm.
> The line of least resistance appears to be down atm but that could well change within a couple of days.






Porper said:


> I don't have the chart at hand, but if you plot all the interest rate cuts, positive intervention by the fed etc you will notice that all good news initially produced a rally followed by the largest sell offs to date.
> 
> "It will be different this time"................love that quote




Augh, c'mon guys... so you're happy with the permabears saturating the environment with the market WILL get worse and everyone will lose money and becoming a selffulling prophecy. 

 Oops, you are bears. :


----------



## korrupt_1 (8 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

seen this happen way too often... US gov steps in to help an failing stock, market goes crazy and futures surge.. the euphoria will only last a few hours before they realise how dire things are... and then things go bear-shape again...


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

_"***SHHHH-HHH!!***

There now children.... all's well - trust me....


Unca Sam" 

U.S.S. (United Soviet States)_


----------



## korrupt_1 (9 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting comments from Allan Kohler from ABC finance tonight...

Said that the reaction from the rescue of Fannie/Freddie was similar to that of the rescue that Bear Sterns was given.

Also, said that after BS was given a life line to bail out, the market rallied... raises the question, could this Fannie/Freddie rescue give some confidence to the market for another similar rally?


----------



## theasxgorilla (9 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Also, said that after BS was given a life line to bail out, the market rallied... raises the question, could this Fannie/Freddie rescue give some confidence to the market for another similar rally?




I don't know, but a move of 3.57% today (to the upside!) on the XAO certainly just got my attention.  Safe to say we're still in a support/resistance zone, albeit now a lot closer the top than the bottom.  With the breadth of today's move one must give credence to the idea that we'll see 5400 before we see the low side of 4882. 

Edit: something _closer_ to 5400, at least on the high side of 5200/50.  I'm not gonna put a specific number out there because it plays little role in my opinion.  Not when you're trading individual stocks at least.  And I don't care for bragging rights


----------



## tech/a (9 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> raises the question, could this Fannie/Freddie rescue give some confidence to the market for another similar rally?




The fundamental basis of the US monetary situation still remains.

SPI is un impressed.


----------



## theasxgorilla (9 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> *The fundamental basis of the US monetary situation still remains.*
> 
> SPI is un impressed.




The fundamental basis of the US monetary system was rearing it's ugly head in the latter part of 2006 when fore-closure rates accelerated markedly.  The stock market (as represented by the muppet index at least) on the other hand went on to make four subsequent new all-time-highs in the ensuing 12 months.

Divergences between stock prices and reality are not all that uncommon.


----------



## jaithomson (9 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So what are we suggesting for today. SPI Futures are down 20 odd points, so the market will open lower - will it hit the 5150\5200 mark..? or go bear below 5000..?


----------



## JZ009 (9 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> So what are we suggesting for today. SPI Futures are down 20 odd points, so the market will open lower - will it hit the 5150\5200 mark..? or go bear below 5000..?




It is now so important for SPI200 Sep contract to hold 4970. If it does not hold, we might be going down again.


----------



## Whiskers (9 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



JZ009 said:


> It is now so important for SPI200 Sep contract to hold 4970. If it does not hold, we might be going down again.




The SPI doesn't drive the market. It's just those futures traders  trying to guess which way it will go.

Oil has pretty well steadied but I'm thinking it may give us a short stab under the psychological $100 barrier just to give some encouragement that it will eventually go below 100. 

The next big factor I think will be the USD index shooting well over 80 (from 79'ish now) and the AUD falling further to at least .7570 pretty soon. 

Gold is consolidating nicely around $US800 and other metals are generally holding too and I think poised to move higher despite the USD gaining.

That should lay the ground work for the XAO to kick on stronger.


----------



## JZ009 (9 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> The SPI doesn't drive the market. It's just those futures traders  trying to guess which way it will go.
> 
> Oil has pretty well steadied but I'm thinking it may give us a short stab under the psychological $100 barrier just to give some encouragement that it will eventually go below 100.
> 
> ...




Global slow down will not do any favour to the commodity prices. Metal/oil prices movement has been reflected in today's BHP price once again i.e $36.47 down 3%. Any potential gain in XJO will be limited by falling stock prices of commodity stocks....


----------



## theasxgorilla (9 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> So what are we suggesting for today. SPI Futures are down 20 odd points, so the market will open lower - will it hit the 5150\5200 mark..? or go bear below 5000..?




It's a hindsight call, but I would not have expected today to be an up day after yesterday's move, even on the back on the SPY posting 2+%.  See what the US does tonight.  More strength might be enough to take the XAO to 5150-ish tomorrow...but really, who the heck really knows???


----------



## Trembling Hand (9 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> The SPI doesn't drive the market. It's just those futures traders  trying to guess which way it will go.



 OMG!!

Do you ever worry about the statements that you dribble without knowing the facts??


----------



## Whiskers (9 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



JZ009 said:


> Global slow down will not do any favour to the commodity prices. Metal/oil prices movement has been reflected in today's BHP price once again i.e $36.47 down 3%. Any potential gain in XJO will be limited by falling stock prices of commodity stocks....




Global slowdown issue aside for a moment, there are some pretty serious currency revaluations going on that is going to change the playing field quite considerably in favour of the Aus export commodity and tourism economy in particular.

I think BHP is being hit because of the oil price falling. When people realise how much that will be offset by higher returns from commodity prices it will turn around.

The following charts are for gold, but it's a similar story for other commodities. The AUD price is rising and with further falls in the AUD it gets better.


----------



## Whiskers (9 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> OMG!!
> 
> Do you ever worry about the statements that you dribble without knowing the facts??




Hook, line and sinker...

:bite:

:ald:


----------



## tech/a (9 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> The following charts are for gold, but it's a similar story for other commodities. The AUD price is rising and with further falls in the AUD it gets better.




Man I gotta agree with T/H.

This isnt even high school economics.


----------



## Whiskers (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Man I gotta agree with T/H.




Tech/a, in case you didn't notice TH's earlier idea of sport and the  ... I was just playing some sport with him... but I guess 'right fighters' don't even like the same sort of practical jokes played back on them. 




Trembling Hand said:


> Whiskers i was never that good at ball sports.
> 
> But I do love a bit of sport......
> 
> ...






tech/a said:


> This isnt even high school economics.




That's very true, but what's your point? 

I was arguing that the 'global slowdown' that some people are still a bit preoccupied with is being over-rated and is not as important in the direction of the markets as the falling oil price and consequent currency revaluations and the flow-on effects.

But I guess if you still hold to the theory that the world is headed for recession and stock markets will go lower, oil staying high and commodities going lower, then I suppose you don't see the significance ot it.


----------



## wayneL (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I hope nobody bought up on the ludicrous euphoria on Monday.


----------



## tech/a (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> But I guess if you still hold to the theory that the world is headed for recession and stock markets will go lower, oil staying high and commodities going lower, then I suppose you don't see the significance ot it.




I trade whats given to me through analysis.
Have 2 trades WPL and BHP short have current
analysis for the XAO at around 4300-4100 in a wave 5

Been that way for weeks.
Until price action and analysis tells me otherwise thats the way it is for me.
All news and economic noise doesnt come into MY equation.
ponder and Hypothesise on----


----------



## jaithomson (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech\a - very intersting. I agree, except for when major news hits like the US government bailing out Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae. So what is your prediction for today, it currently sits at 4840ish... down another 100..?


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> So what are we suggesting for today. SPI Futures are down 20 odd points, so the market will open lower - will it hit the 5150\5200 mark..? or *go bear below 5000..?*




_"If you go out in the woods today
You're sure of a big surprise.
If you go out in the woods today
You'd better go in disguise.

For every bear that ever there was
Will gather there for certain, because
*Today's the day the teddy bears have their picnic....*"_

 :horse:


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I hope nobody bought up on the ludicrous euphoria on Monday.




Not this little black duck.... plucked me feathers out months ago...  

Hey, anyone seen where that dead moggy got to??? :bounce:

... and some more important questions to be answered...

- Will the PPT bail out Lehmans?

- Who will be the next major US bank to sink into the primeval ooze?

- Will CERN create an artificial black hole even bigger than the World Financial Markets? 

:bananasmi:


----------



## tech/a (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> Tech\a - very intersting. I agree, except for when major news hits like the US government bailing out Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae. So what is your prediction for today, it currently sits at 4840ish... down another 100..?





I'm not trading "Today" or "Yesterday" or "Tommorow"

I'm trading my analysis and until it reaches a target and indicates that its either run it course OR the analysis is no longer valid its as I have stated in previous posts above.

Various pieces of "News" have no bearing until it alters the analysis I have in place.


----------



## CanOz (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was quite surprised this morning that the SPI was down *4*% just after the US closed. Even the Nikkei was only down just over 1%.....should be an interesting day for the Asian markets.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## deadset (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We've got oil $103, 7 hours outage at the London Stock Exchange, and Lehman Brothers dropping 40%.  

Will oil get any lower tomorrow ?
Will the $AUD drop below 0.80 ?

BHP haven't been down to $34 for a while.


It's been interesting already.


----------



## korrupt_1 (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I've not sure if I'm using 'Andrew's Pitchfork' correctly,.. but it seems that the lower channel has failed to hold. Not sure what this means, but i'm putting on clean underwear just incase... :


----------



## Sean K (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> I've not sure if I'm using 'Andrew's Pitchfork' correctly,.. but it seems that the lower channel has failed to hold. Not sure what this means, but i'm putting on clean underwear just incase... :



Nice short opp on a break down through 4800..


----------



## Whiskers (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> _"If you go out in the woods today
> You're sure of a big surprise.
> If you go out in the woods today
> You'd better go in disguise.
> ...




Lol. That's very funny.



korrupt_1 said:


> I've not sure if I'm using 'Andrew's Pitchfork' correctly,.. but it seems that the lower channel has failed to hold. Not sure what this means, but i'm putting on clean underwear just incase... :




This doesn't apply to the XAO, but if correct goes north with my XAO forecast.

Do EW'ers think it's a valid proposition?


----------



## Sean K (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Lol. That's very funny.
> 
> Do EW'ers think it's a valid proposition?



 5 EW'ers will have 10 different opinions, and then be able to adjust those opinions on a daily basis to suit one of the 'rules' about EW.

Just what happened to skyhawk and his love for wavepicker anyway?


----------



## Porper (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> 5 EW'ers will have 10 different opinions, and then be able to adjust those opinions on a daily basis to suit one of the 'rules' about EW.
> 
> Just what happened to skyhawk and his love for wavepicker anyway?





Oh, Kennas you are such a cynic.

I'll just have a look through my Elliot Wave for beginners book


----------



## Sean K (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Oh, Kennas you are such a cynic.
> 
> I'll just have a look through my Elliot Wave for beginners book



 LOL

Yes, me too. What is it? 

5 up, 3 down, add in a few x's and y's, or even a 'c' and a 'd'. Add in some numbers related to the swirls of a snail, and then make sure you understanhd if you are subminuette, or supercycle. Then, adjust according to the stars.

Sorry, it's late here, and I'm bored... 

Rio is boring.....



LOL


----------



## motorway (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Lol. That's very funny.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Hey Whiskers ,, does it matter what elliot's waves are doing ?

What do the actual objective waves reveal

I would not be short atm

What do you see

the chart is a .05% x 3

being a %log chart it will amplify  the appearance of reactive ( springiness )
support .... I have marked some ,,,,,

We have opposing vertical counts as well

look at the mid line ..

If we got a 1000 people of all ages and experience
and asked them to mark the top of every buying wave
and the bottom of every selling wave..

They would all agree without any special training
Because these waves are real and objective
and of stark clarity..


motorway


----------



## Porper (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Do EW'ers think it's a valid proposition?




Whiskers,

The first wave against the trend is wave A.

So basically move your labelling to the left and you will find your wave d becomes wave e.

So any break of your lower trend line is very bearish.

I am not saying that is where we are going, just that your triangle following E.Wave theory should break to the downside, not up.

Hope this helps.

This was sourced from the beginners guide for cynics which I have just sent to Kennas


----------



## sam76 (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What caused the spike in the all ords just before?


----------



## tech/a (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> What caused the spike in the all ords just before?




Buyers.
Many of the ASX20 had a spike.
I would say that most are expecting the reversal of today tommorow.
But by the look of it the spike was and is being met by enough selling to push it back down.

Trade the longterm trend not the noise.
If the longterm trend looks threatened then re evaluate.

*Hey Chuck Norris.*

Punch into Google 
"Find Chuck Norris" then hit 
I'm feeling Lucky and see what you get.


----------



## korrupt_1 (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Other international indexes are up too... it must be some global news...

DJ up some 50pts then back down just as quick


----------



## sam76 (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Buyers.
> 
> 
> *Hey Chuck Norris.*
> ...




LOL you're a funny old duck aren't you?  

Cheers for the info as well.


----------



## Frank D (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech/A...

_"trade the long-term trend and not the noise"...._

its been friggin noisy for the past 9 Weeks


*Premium Report:- *

_"4852 is the trend guide today...above 4852 then the expectation is double R44 range upwards = 87 points"_


That's why there was a 'spike' up,  the SPI is just doing it's usual Primary Trend rotations within the daily timeframes.

Thank god for the noise......


----------



## sam76 (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That chart looks like a cross between snakes and pacman.


----------



## korrupt_1 (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> That chart looks like a cross between snakes and pacman.





Didn't you know that trading is just one huge video game?


----------



## roland (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> That chart looks like a cross between snakes and pacman.




I was thinking it looked more like some of my electronic circuit diagrams - just need to add a couple of transistors somewhere then it would make a good astable oscillator


----------



## justjohn (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No Chuck ,looks like the plans to my house


----------



## Whiskers (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Hey Whiskers ,, does it matter what elliot's waves are doing ?




Hi motorway. 

Well, it's just that EW seemed to come to me like second nature. I think it's making me much better at finding my short term price range/swings on trades... as well as the market.

But I'm still working on my P&F.



> What do the actual objective waves reveal
> 
> I would not be short atm
> 
> ...




I can see and understand what you say here. 

Objectivity v subjectivity... that's the issue. I'm gonna have a go at porper about that now. 



Porper said:


> Whiskers,
> 
> The first wave against the trend is wave A.




Yeah.



> So basically move your labelling to the left and you will find your wave d becomes wave e.




Oh yeah, why would I want to do that.  The minute count doesn't work then.



> So any break of your lower trend line is very bearish.




Ha, ha... I thought so. :



> I am not saying that is where we are going, just that your triangle following E.Wave theory should break to the downside, not up. Hope this helps.




Only if you still think the trend is down. I reckon we have had a clear trend reversal for wave i and wave ii is the triangle which will break up.



> This was sourced from the beginners guide for cynics which I have just sent to Kennas




Oh dear, mate... oh well, more market noise to confuse the sceptics.


----------



## Porper (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Only if you still think the trend is down. I reckon we have had a clear trend reversal for wave i and wave ii is the triangle which will break up.
> 
> 
> 
> .




Whiskers, 

I gave you the benefit of the doubt before concerning your cocky attitude.

You asked an opinion on the E.Wave triangle, I gave you mine in good faith.

You now act as if you are some sort of expert,trying to laugh off any help. 
I suggest you learn the basics of Elliot Wave before advocating you are an elliotician.

A second wave triangle eh 

I'll give you a clue.This is a rule of Elliot Wave...................

"Wave 2 may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle."


----------



## Porper (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Wave 2 may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle.
> Oh dear, mate... oh well, more market noise to confuse the sceptics.





And before you try and worm your way out of it Whiskers by saying your triangle is a wave B, forget it.That isn't how you meant it or labelled it.

Have a good evening.


----------



## Whiskers (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Porper mate, keep ya shirt on eh. 

I know one fundamental rule of any analysis... well two actually... oh, what the hell, make it three.

One should not analyise when emotional.
One must keep an open mind.
One must have an eye for detail.

*You called it wave '2', mate, not me... I called it 'ii'.*

By definition wave 'ii' is a wave 'b'.

I've drawn an illustration to show more clearly. A triangle can appear as minute wave ii of iii which could make 1 of 5 impulse or diag triangle.

It may unfold to be wave ii of iii which could make 1 of 3, or (1) or even (a).

There are a number of possibilities, but in any case it's normal to start with the lower wave counts and add the higher counts as they come apparent.


----------



## Whiskers (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> [*]One must have an eye for detail.
> [/LIST]
> 
> 
> By definition wave 'ii' is a wave 'b'.




Ooops... this is better.


----------



## white_goodman (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

how can elliot wavers have two totally opposite analysis?


----------



## sam76 (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think it depends on where they start their count from or something like that...


----------



## wayneL (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> how can elliot wavers have two totally opposite analysis?




Because EW in real time is not a science, it's a hypothesis. You analyze based on assumptions which may prove to be correct or false as time and market action unfolds.

Then, you change the count in retrospect and shout about how right you got it. :


----------



## brty (10 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

WGoodman,

It is easy how different theoreticians can come up with different analysis. When looking at what Whiskers wrote, it makes perfect sense....



> can appear as minute wave ii of iii which could make 1 of 5 impulse





> It may unfold to be wave ii of iii which could make 1 of 3, or (1) or even (a)







> There are a number of possibilities




Remember it is called Elliott Wave THEORY, not Elliott Wave Fact.

EW is OK after the fact, but not a very good tool for prediction with an accuracy record you can statistically analyse. You can work out that past 3rd waves have a r/r of say 8/1. 

However you think you are buying a third of a 3rd, but later it turns out to be a, ii of b, in the cycle low extra x blah blah blah, therefore what you put your money on was not the setup you had studied.

brty


----------



## Porper (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> By definition wave 'ii' is a wave 'b'..



Really, well I didn't know wave "ii" was a wave B, thanks for that Whiskers, highly entertaining.



Whiskers said:


> I've drawn an illustration to show more clearly...



No comment I could go on but wasting my breath.
As I stated a couple of posts ago, you didn't label it as a wave B and you never meant it to be as well as you know.

Anyway enough from me, you know best Whiskers, have fun.

Suffice to say this is the exact reason that Elliot Wave has a bad reputation.Lack of understanding.


----------



## Nick Radge (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> how can elliot wavers have two totally opposite analysis?




And you think fundamentals are any better? here is the Broker Consensus for NAB. Let's think about that:

1. Its one of the biggest stocks
2. Banking analysts ONLY live, breathe and analyze banks
3. They're all paid > $300k


----------



## Aussiejeff (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> And you think fundamentals are any better? here is the Broker Consensus for NAB. Let's think about that:
> 
> 1. Its one of the biggest stocks
> 2. Banking analysts ONLY live, breathe and analyze banks
> 3. They're all paid > $300k




For some reason, I couldn't make head nor tails of those expert recommendations, so I tried looking at them from a different viewpoint and suddenly they became crystal clear...


----------



## Sunder (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> For some reason, I couldn't make head nor tails of those expert recommendations, so I tried looking at them from a different viewpoint and suddenly they became crystal clear...




To be honest, it made more sense to me when rotated sideways


----------



## Sunder (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It just occured to me that my previous post as a first post might not be as humorous as I intended it, so let me introduce myself.

"Long time lurker, first time poster, etc, etc"

I work in IT security, and although I've been playing with standard equities for a few years, this is my first foray into a bear market, and first attempt at CFD trading. I have to say, IT HURTS! (My investment capital down 25% since July 1st)

I do have a very dry sense of humour, so excuse any posts that might offend. 

Still learning both in selection and trading discipline, so I'll enjoy being here with you for a bit.


----------



## wayneL (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> It just occured to me that my previous post as a first post might not be as humorous as I intended it, so let me introduce myself.



This is a traders forum, we all have dark humour.


----------



## Trembling Hand (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> It just occurred to me that my previous post as a first post might not be as humorous as I intended it, so let me introduce myself.




Actually it is very funny!! I would say spot on too.


----------



## Dutchy3 (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just selling this one into the close today ....

DJIA futures off a bit (albeit not much) ...

Looking like a soft close lacking any real support ...

I don't have the XAO so please excuse me positing here as its the XJO I'm refering to. Trade this via CFD ...

I'll post a chart tonight with my reasoning ... I see this is nice and lively so will start up a XJO specific post if this gets on the clooective goat ....

I'm only slightly short and will have to cover if this rallys into this weekend coming.


----------



## Real1ty (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Actually it is very funny!! I would say spot on too.




I agree.


I don't use very much T/A apart from very basic stuff but i do enjoy the banter in this thread.

EW reminds me of football.

A set of rules, the umpire interprets them as he sees fit, the crowd roars its displeasure or approval.


----------



## brty (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

With new yearly lows on the XAO, this doesn't look good now. 

With 6 touches at these low levels and now new lows, this goose looks cooked. I'm holding cash and ignoring all long signals for individual stocks with the index at new, new lows.

Of course as I type this the market has rallied 20 points, but I have to do what my system says. 

brty


----------



## Dutchy3 (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> With new yearly lows on the XAO, this doesn't look good now.
> 
> With 6 touches at these low levels and now new lows, this goose looks cooked. I'm holding cash and ignoring all long signals for individual stocks with the index at new, new lows.
> 
> ...




Rally's are a pain ...

Selling more now .... if the Dow rallies overnight I will most certainly need to cover into the weekend


----------



## Aussiejeff (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> This is a traders forum, we all have dark humour.




Yessssss, my pretty!

You may also note that many ASF'ers have been contemplating Black Holes of late.

Ver-r-r-r-y Dark Humor indeed....


 :axt:


----------



## Sunder (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> With new yearly lows on the XAO, this doesn't look good now.
> 
> With 6 touches at these low levels and now new lows, this goose looks cooked. I'm holding cash and ignoring all long signals for individual stocks with the index at new, new lows.
> 
> ...




Do you not believe in shorting?

My "feel" is that this is the start of another leg down. We've been testing this support level quite a while now, and it's finally broken it. Without some good news in the next few days, I think we're going to go settle at a lower level until some news puts confidence back in the market.


----------



## white_goodman (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i dont think we are in a downward jsut yet tomorrow on the dow and asx looks for a up move imo


----------



## korrupt_1 (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> i dont think we are in a downward jsut yet tomorrow on the dow and asx looks for a up move imo




Then explain the 100pt drop since the open this morning?

This is after good news on employment data...

I don't know... we're at a key point... it's all up to the Dow tonight... it's going to be either a bounce on this support level or the beginning of further new lows...


----------



## Sunder (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> i dont think we are in a downward jsut yet tomorrow on the dow and asx looks for a up move imo




I wouldn't bet all my money on it, but the failure of the last upwards movement to create or even match the previous high, says to me that support is failing. If not on this touch, then very very soon. 

I've got a small short on it. If it breaks support, then the next rally fails, I'll be opening up my short a bit and expecting a few week down wave.


----------



## white_goodman (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Then explain the 100pt drop since the open this morning?
> 
> This is after good news on employment data...
> 
> I don't know... we're at a key point... it's all up to the Dow tonight... it's going to be either a bounce on this support level or the beginning of further new lows...




you may be right might be very make or break tonight....

i jsut dont think there was enough effort today to get out of the channels, it should bounce up tomorrow, well hopefully for me cos im still long on 99% of my stocks...maby jsut wishful thinking


----------



## white_goodman (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> I wouldn't bet all my money on it, but the failure of the last upwards movement to create or even match the previous high, says to me that support is failing. If not on this touch, then very very soon.
> 
> I've got a small short on it. If it breaks support, then the next rally fails, I'll be opening up my short a bit and expecting a few week down wave.




i think that is very smart idea, lets just wait and see tomoz, i have a feeling monday might be a big day if we go below tomorrow


----------



## Dutchy3 (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I sold it more on the CLOSE

I do hope the DOW falls out of bed tonight ... Fannie and Freddie drags GDP down a few more points than anticipated (or similar) ...

I've got the 4850 line on the XJO too I'll be watching the futures now very closely


----------



## IFocus (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> It just occured to me that my previous post as a first post might not be as humorous as I intended it, so let me introduce myself.
> 
> "Long time lurker, first time poster, etc, etc"
> 
> ...




Sounds like you will fit right in, welcome to the forum.


----------



## skyQuake (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> To be honest, it made more sense to me when rotated sideways




lol well done.


----------



## tech/a (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> I agree.
> 
> EW reminds me of football.
> 
> A set of rules, the umpire interprets them as he sees fit, the crowd roars its displeasure or approval.




A common observation.

But if you think about analysis any form of analysis and as has been shown with the Fundamental analysis above---interpretation of the exact same information can lead to a wide and varied result.

All analysis is correct until proven invalid or just plain wrong.
The ability to admit and take appropriate action when you know its either invalid or wrong makes the difference to your bottom line.


----------



## white_goodman (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

the overall consensus is still circa 4200 id say... this sideways action is difficult for me picking stocks atm, id rather one way or the other atleast i can make my decisions easier


----------



## tech/a (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> the overall consensus is still circa 4200 id say... this sideways action is difficult for me picking stocks atm, id rather one way or the other atleast i can make my decisions easier




So why then havent you been short for the duration of this concensus?

Its been a while!


----------



## white_goodman (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> So why then havent you been short for the duration of this concensus?
> 
> Its been a while!




ive only been trading seriously for 3 weeks prior was jsut learning, research, reading etc...


----------



## tech/a (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Fair enough


----------



## sassa (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Fair enough




Because he/she goes under white-


----------



## Dutchy3 (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

SPI of about 40 odd atm. Really need about 60 - 70 down on the close tomorrow ....

Else nervous nellie for the weekend ...


----------



## Dutchy3 (11 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That's better ... SPI off 70 now


----------



## white_goodman (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dutchy3 said:


> That's better ... SPI off 70 now




hmmm someones gonna be nervous this weekend perhaps


----------



## Dutchy3 (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bugger the weekend ... I'll be netural on the close if this rally holds!


----------



## jaithomson (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Do you think we will eventually go dwon today..? god hope so.... my sell is at 4777...!!


----------



## Dutchy3 (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That would be a logical sell point ... I'm trying to be too cute by far.


----------



## korrupt_1 (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

good chance of  a fade today... dow goes up, spi goes down...

also expecting US retail and ppi data tonight... anything goes...

when does the sept spi contract expires? next week?


----------



## white_goodman (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> good chance of  a fade today... dow goes up, spi goes down...
> 
> also expecting US retail and ppi data tonight... anything goes...
> 
> when does the sept spi contract expires? next week?




i suspect a rise today on low volume showing some weakness and setting up for a plunge monday... we shall soon see


----------



## jaithomson (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

cool... I like plunges, especially when my toilet is blocked 

Hope it does down, otherwise Im bust..!


----------



## white_goodman (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> cool... I like plunges, especially when my toilet is blocked
> 
> Hope it does down, otherwise Im bust..!




if you read before ive only been trading seriously for 3 weeks... my opinion carries about as much weight as a feather


----------



## Nyden (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Might just be time to start buying again - average folk all seem to be shorting now? 


What's with all this talk of nervousness over the weekend, and being 'bust' if the market doesn't go down?! Let me get this straight; so - you've been burnt by being long in the market ... and now the solution is to throw more money at the market?

Honestly, call up gamblers anonymous people! The stock market is not the only bleeding thing you can do with your money. If you're not making gains, and worst yet if you are losing money - and cannot seem to trade this very difficult market ... then leave it. Put it all in the bank, and wait for stability to return! Ugh, the stubbornness...


----------



## Sean K (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Might just be time to start buying again - average folk all seem to be shorting now?
> 
> 
> What's with all this talk of nervousness over the weekend, and being 'bust' if the market doesn't go down?! Let me get this straight; so - you've been burnt by being long in the market ... and now the solution is to throw more money at the market?
> ...



Nyden, the risk is TOTAL meltdown, not just a few over levereaged financials, commod specs, and the like. The market as we know it may not exist if the worst case scenario of US meltdown occurs in the next few months. 

Im starting to be concerned about my cash sitting in the ANZ  vault...

US may run into depression, and then a single domino falls....

For a while anyway..... opportunities will eventuate..


----------



## Nyden (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Nyden, the risk is TOTAL meltdown, not just a few over levereaged financials, commod specs, and the like. The market as we know it may not exist if the worst case scenario of US meltdown occurs in the next few months.
> 
> Im starting to be concerned about my cash sitting in the ANZ  vault...
> 
> US may run into depression, and then a single domino falls....




I think that's a tad too uber-bear for my liking Kennas.
I honestly do believe we're headed for much larger losses; but I do not believe we'll start seeing Aussie banks go bust.

 ... Well, maybe ANZ and NAB will : Heck, might even be best to stick with small banks like Bendigo.


----------



## Sean K (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> ... Well, maybe ANZ and NAB will : Heck, might even be best to stick with small banks like Bendigo.



Thanks mate, so if I get the  first $100K back, as is some US bank policy, Im rooted,...

The big 4 do not have enough exposure to US drama, but once our RE going on the big dipper.... eeeeek.


----------



## Sunder (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like this morning's rally is losing momentum.

I'm not sure it's going to close in the red, but that's a pretty pansy effort after the drops we saw after the last few days. I'm getting more and more confident of a several week slide down.


----------



## korrupt_1 (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> i suspect a rise today on low volume showing some weakness and setting up for a plunge monday... we shall soon see





So how about this fade today? when it works, it works nicely... expecting some selling pressure as we close off towards the end of the week... especially with the US retail data out tonight,... also DJ up some 150pts last night on 'speculation'... that is not a good fundamental reason for a rally... any surprise bad news and it'll drop like a lead weight...


----------



## nomore4s (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

nice bounce this arvo though


----------



## Sunder (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> nice bounce this arvo though




gotta hurt the shorters... from 0.4 to 1.7% gain in about 45 mins!

It's retreated a bit though. Media is attributing it to the Lehman news released at 2:30


----------



## korrupt_1 (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Media is attributing it to the Lehman news released at 2:30




I take what the Media report with a pinch of salt... nevertheless it was a nice rally indeed... didnt expect that - especially on the back of a Friday and a potentially volatile US session...

Other international indexes didnt do much..  so rally could be atrributed from short covers (me included)...


----------



## white_goodman (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

looks like we are still sitting in that sidewyas trading channel for now, im still at work but how was the volume for the day, low volume?


----------



## tcoates (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You can get volume information here

http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/mkt/indexDetails.ac?idx=XAO

As for whether it is low volume... that is determined by the system you follow.  I have a couple of variations on VSA and...

* one system (Joel) would have today as a day of "no demand"

* one system (my variation) and another borrowed from another forum would consider as average volume

* Bug volume indicator would also indicate average volume.

Take your pick  

Tim


----------



## jaithomson (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oh nooo..! floating above 4900, thats gotta hurt the shorts at 4800. Any guesses Monday what may happen, or even tonite on Wall Street..?


----------



## white_goodman (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoates said:


> You can get volume information here
> 
> http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/mkt/indexDetails.ac?idx=XAO
> 
> ...




yeh i got increased but average volume in tradeguider... from what ive seen on the DOW chart they should rise but who knows honestly...if we dont get any bad news on the weekend i wouldnt be suprised if we had another up day on the XAO on Monday


----------



## jaithomson (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Doesn't look like the US Government is going to buy out Leyman's....

Do you think the Dow Jones will go up or down tonite ? - as this will reflect our market (even though it will be closed at the time...)


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We are seeing lower highs and lower lows.

Nothing out of the ordinary.
There is no indication of alteration of direction for any length of time---Still range bound.


----------



## Whiskers (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> 5 EW'ers will have 10 different opinions, and then be able to adjust those opinions on a daily basis to suit one of the 'rules' about EW.




Well... if I may, I'll adjust my opinion... since the landscape has changed slightly while I was away. 

Well, here goes! For better or worse, one of them must be pretty close to right. :

I'm thinking if this wave C is to extend to the low 4,000's it pretty well has to keep going south from here.

On the other hand since we hit a bit of a pothole and 2 or B is a tad lower, which sets up a Flat, if it makes a new high which is still my preferance, we could see a substantial kick higher... C would have to be a five wave impulse.


----------



## roland (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Well... if I may, I'll adjust my opinion... since the landscape has changed slightly while I was away.
> 
> Well, here goes! For better or worse, one of them must be pretty close to right. :
> 
> ...




well Whiskers, I guess you gotta be right one way or the other  It's either up or down - good call!


----------



## wayneL (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



roland said:


> well Whiskers, I guess you gotta be right one way or the other  It's either up or down - good call!




Ahhhh! The hedged call. Now we know Whiskers is a true expert.


----------



## nomore4s (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Ahhhh! The hedged call. Now we know Whiskers is a true expert.




lol, and no doubt like the other "experts" he'll be shouting from the rooftops about how he got it right:


----------



## white_goodman (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> lol, and no doubt like the other "experts" he'll be shouting from the rooftops about how he got it right:




why make predictions if you cant gloat about being correct after the fact

Disclaimer: 10% of predictions are true


----------



## jeflin (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Well if you make enough predictions about everything, you'll eventually get a few spectacularly right.
> 
> GP





Isn't that the job of most analysts, brokers and investment bankers?


----------



## white_goodman (12 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jeflin said:


> Isn't that the job of most analysts, brokers and investment bankers?




yeh...lucky them


----------



## jaithomson (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone got any predictions for Mondays ASX200..? Are we really going to hit below 4500 like australianstockreport.com.au and chartchat.com.au tells us..?


----------



## nomore4s (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> Anyone got any predictions for Mondays ASX200..? Are we really going to hit below 4500 like australianstockreport.com.au and chartchat.com.au tells us..?




Who knows mate, will have to wait till Monday to find out


----------



## wayneL (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> Anyone got any predictions for Mondays ASX200..? Are we really going to hit below 4500 like australianstockreport.com.au and chartchat.com.au tells us..?




Not on Monday.


----------



## Sunder (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> Anyone got any predictions for Mondays ASX200..? Are we really going to hit below 4500 like australianstockreport.com.au and chartchat.com.au tells us..?




If we knew, we'd all be lying about in the Bahamas instead of checking stock forums after midnight 

Dow is currently down, but hardly convincing. 4500 on Monday though? Not unless Hurricane Ike changes its mind and hits New York instead. Even then, probably not quite 4500.


----------



## jersey10 (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Not on Monday.




Tuesday?


----------



## jaithomson (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

When would we hit 4750..? I have a HUGE sell at 4777, I made a bit of money on it late the other night, but I fell asleep at the keyboard before I could close the order, and woke up to 4900+ Dooohhh..!


----------



## MRC & Co (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> I take what the Media report with a pinch of salt... nevertheless it was a nice rally indeed... didnt expect that - especially on the back of a Friday and a potentially volatile US session...
> 
> Other international indexes didnt do much..  so rally could be atrributed from short covers (me included)...




I would give that media report on Lehman more weight.  

It was what caused that rally.


----------



## Sean K (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> If we knew, we'd all be lying about in the Bahamas instead of checking stock forums after midnight
> .



Or laying on a beach in Rio de Janeiro...:


----------



## dhukka (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Anyway, it looks like tomorrow should be down a bit more, but 5300+ looks a real possibility late in the week or next.



 Nope bever happened,



Whiskers said:


> I hold my hand on my heart and solemnly swear to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, that the XAO will make at least 5278 for the next high, maybe this week... otherwise next week will do.




I see how this works, you just keep pushing it out a week until you get it right.




Whiskers said:


> Gold is consolidating nicely around $US800 and other metals are generally holding too and I think poised to move higher despite the USD gaining.




Actually as it turned out, it didn't consolidate at $800. 

Well at least he's consistent........................ly wrong. No wonder he's turned into a hedger.


----------



## jaithomson (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How is the ASX200 sitting at 4972..? What the..? Will it go down after no bailout of leyman last night..?


----------



## Sean K (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> How is the ASX200 sitting at 4972..? What the..? Will it go down after no bailout of leyman last night..?



These questions are getting really tedious.

|What is your opinion?


----------



## Sunder (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> How is the ASX200 sitting at 4972..? What the..? Will it go down after no bailout of leyman last night..?




This one is pretty simple. May I guys?

Every quarter, S&P calculate the market cap of the biggest 200 companies on the Aussie Stock Exchange. Each company then gets a weighting, depending on their market cap. 

At short intervals during the trading day, and about 5 minutes past 4, they calculate the last sold price of each share within those top 200 companies. These prices then weigh into the index depending on the company's market cap.

At the end of the day on September 12th, 2008, after all the prices were considered, the index sat at 4972. 

Pretty simple, hey? </sarcasm>

Seriously though, you sound like one very panicky trader. I know your questions are more or less rhetoric, but seriously dude - knowing the market is knowing the thought process of every single person who has access to trade the market. All we can do is use some mass market psychology (mostly technical, but some fundamental analysis) to guess what happens next. And if something we didn't factor in turns up during the period of our analysis, then our analysis may (or may not) need to change.

The answer is, try to learn about people in groups. We learn not to yell "FIRE!" in a nightclub, because we know what happens when someone does. Now go out and figure out what happens when someone yells "****, I think we borrowed too much" in a stock market.


----------



## korrupt_1 (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> I would give that media report on Lehman more weight.
> 
> It was what caused that rally.




I'm no so sure,.. our market rallied some 100pts in the closing hours of trading, yet in the same time frame, international index barely moved...

If Lehman's news was the cause of the rally; then you'd think other index would have reacted in similar as well...


----------



## MRC & Co (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> I'm no so sure,.. our market rallied some 100pts in the closing hours of trading, yet in the same time frame, international index barely moved...
> 
> If Lehman's news was the cause of the rally; then you'd think other index would have reacted in similar as well...




The out of hours S&P also started rallying at the news, some big players got on board the SPI, and others were squeezed.  

Other international indices would depend on their composition, not largely financial based, then you wouldn't expect much movement on positive fundamental bank (financial sector) news, right?  

Not saying that news is always the be all and end all and what drives markets intraday, but it can have a big effect and in this case, it did.


----------



## jaithomson (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What about good old Technical Analysys, Bollinger bands, you know, all the good stuff - what are they indicating..?


----------



## nomore4s (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> What about good old Technical Analysys, Bollinger bands, you know, all the good stuff - what are they indicating..?




They are indicating that it could move up, down or sideways from here

Mate just give it a rest we understand that you have a bad position open but we don't know for sure what will happen on Monday.


----------



## jaithomson (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hurricane Ike looks like it will cause Oil prices to rise..


----------



## Whiskers (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Seriously though, you sound like one very panicky trader. I know your questions are more or less rhetoric, but seriously dude - knowing the market is knowing the thought process of every single person who has access to trade the market. *All we can do is use some mass market psychology (mostly technical, but some fundamental analysis) to guess what happens next. And if something we didn't factor in turns up during the period of our analysis, then our analysis may (or may not) need to change.*
> 
> The answer is, try to learn about people in groups. *We learn not to yell "FIRE!" in a nightclub, *because we know what happens when someone does. Now go out and figure out what happens when someone yells "****, I think we borrowed too much" in a stock market.




Good stuff Sunder.

But invariably you get some galoot with a vendetta and not much better to do with his time than stalking you and yelling 'FIRE' or some other alarmist nonsense as below.

If only he was active in the market, rather than an armchair critic crying doom and gloom all the time... and for all we know with an altera motive.

Also, unless you are keen to loose money, it *is* a good idea to HEDGE your positions in some way... even if all you are trading with is your ego. 

PS: 
*ga·loot      */gəˈlut [guh-loot] 

an awkward, eccentric, or foolish person.  
A person, especially a clumsy or uncouth one.

*un·couth  *

aarchaic : not known or not familiar to one : seldom experienced : uncommon, rare bobsolete : mysterious, uncanny
a: strange or clumsy in shape or appearance : outlandish b: lacking in polish and grace : rugged <uncouth verse> c: awkward and uncultivated in appearance, manner, or behavior : rude



dhukka said:


> Nope bever happened,
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## M34N (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> Anyone got any predictions for Mondays ASX200..? Are we really going to hit below 4500 like australianstockreport.com.au and chartchat.com.au tells us..?




http://www.sfe.com.au/content/prices/rtp15sfAP.html

Bookmark this 

Predominantly a rise in resource stocks Monday, BHP and RIO up around 9% in NY trade, big drop in US dollar spurred resources across the board, solid gains for silver, copper and gold, big jumps in the XAU/HUI, large jump in AUD vs USD, biggest gain in 6 months for EUR vs USD... perfect storm. Banks will probably keep a lid on gains though.


----------



## MRC & Co (13 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> http://www.sfe.com.au/content/prices/rtp15sfAP.html
> 
> Bookmark this
> 
> Predominantly a rise in resource stocks Monday, BHP and RIO up around 9% in NY trade, big drop in US dollar spurred resources across the board, solid gains for silver, copper and gold, big jumps in the XAU/HUI, large jump in AUD vs USD, biggest gain in 6 months for EUR vs USD... perfect storm. Banks will probably keep a lid on gains though.




Yeh, this slosh of institutional funds from commodities to the USD is sure to take a breather.  Haven't looked closely, but Dr Copper hasn't faired too badly in the last few days, perhaps an indication of a turnaround of some sorts in broader base metals.  Banks are all over the shop with this latest news.........


----------



## Whiskers (14 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ever have one of those days when you get that feeling that something just isn't quite right.

I've just realised My XAO data was corrupted, the red candle on the 4th Sept and apparently no one else did either, but when checking other scources I also found Incredible Charts corrupted back on the 5th of Aug, the low tail on the red candle.

Not the end of the world in itself, but a headache when trying to plot trends.

Well, in hindsight the abc I had around the 4th Sept certainly didn't apply  ... but I'm happy with it now.


----------



## jaithomson (14 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

how certain are you..?


----------



## Real1ty (14 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> how certain are you..?




How certain are you that his or anyone elses answer on this forum is worth YOU punting YOUR $ on?


----------



## Greg71 (14 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> how certain are you..?




Jai,

Bollingers indicate a downtrend, both are pointing down on a daily and are sideways and contracted on the weekly, with a bearish bias (below ma's).

5220 resistance and 4880 support, which it has just bounced off after Friday's effort.

Overall it's clearly in a downtrend, trading well below a 150 day ma, which is also pointing down. You might get some action trading the channel between current support and resistance, but it looks risky as the index is in a definite downtrend. You'd be swimming against the current, being bullish.

Greg.


----------



## korrupt_1 (14 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> What about good old Technical Analysys, Bollinger bands, you know, all the good stuff - what are they indicating..?




dude,.. you sound like you betted your life's saving on a short...

not all trades will go as planned, so if a trade does goes pear-shape, then IF you have good risk and capital management, then your loss will be minimal... take it and move on to the next trade... no point in getting all paniced and worried over it. you'll just aged yourself faster and life is too short already...

fwiw, the market is definately trading in a channel,.. a breakout of the channel could see further moves in that direction...

Monday morning could see a sharp rally as more short positions are covered. The Lehman news is starting to take substance and could push it higher, but as we're still in a down trend, expect to see heavy selling coming in on all rallies..


----------



## Sunder (14 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What's interesting is this link from ASF here: 

http://compareshares.com.au/show_news.php?id=S-514705

It says CBA analysts are calling bottom, but I haven't been "this sure" of a downward slide since May. 

Every "reasonable period" exponential moving average is down
MACD is negative
RSI is negative
Bollinger bands indicate down
Money flow indicates down.

Sure there has to be a turning point somewhere, and the nature of turning points is that you change your momentum from down to up. But it's a brave man to get on the news and call bottom when it hasn't really started turning yet.

What are people's take on this? My feel is that we should be going down, but the "lack of bad news" rather than real good news might drive us to another bear market rally.


----------



## CanOz (14 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> What's interesting is this link from ASF here:
> 
> http://compareshares.com.au/show_news.php?id=S-514705
> 
> ...





I'm feeling slightly bullish from a technical perspective, however i feel very bearish from a macro fundamental perspective.....does that make sense?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## jaithomson (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wall street down 250 points...!!!


----------



## korrupt_1 (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> Wall street down 250 points...!!!




looks like you've been given a chance....


----------



## sam76 (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

2338 GMT [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 expected to open down 2%-3% amid WSJ reports Lehman expected to file for bankruptcy protection. AIG also in focus, with WSJ reporting AIG plans asset sales, new capital. Friday's surge in metal prices should see resources outperform, but resource majors likely to fall amid steep falls in overall market. Major banks could fall 3.0% or more. Traders nervous about how overall market will react to prospect of Lehman failure and question marks about AIG. With volatility likely exacerbated by U.S. news flow and Asian holidays, S&P/ASX 200 could bear brunt of offshore investors' attempts to hedge financial risk. Technically, break of July low at 4758.5 could trigger weekly support line from falling wedge pattern at 4690.0. Daily close below 4772.0 (50% retracement of 2003-2007 rise) would target next major Fibonacci retracement at 4282 (61.8% retracement), according to Dow Jones technical analysis. Index last 4903.8. (DWR)


----------



## Sunder (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> 2338 GMT [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 expected to open down 2%-3% amid WSJ reports Lehman expected to file for bankruptcy protection. AIG also in focus, with WSJ reporting AIG plans asset sales, new capital. Friday's surge in metal prices should see resources outperform, but resource majors likely to fall amid steep falls in overall market. Major banks could fall 3.0% or more. Traders nervous about how overall market will react to prospect of Lehman failure and question marks about AIG. With volatility likely exacerbated by U.S. news flow and Asian holidays, S&P/ASX 200 could bear brunt of offshore investors' attempts to hedge financial risk. Technically, break of July low at 4758.5 could trigger weekly support line from falling wedge pattern at 4690.0. Daily close below 4772.0 (50% retracement of 2003-2007 rise) would target next major Fibonacci retracement at 4282 (61.8% retracement), according to Dow Jones technical analysis. Index last 4903.8. (DWR)




Did you write that analysis? 

Dammit, that's almost exactly how the market fell this morning. 

If you wrote it, can I just hand all my money to you?


----------



## jaithomson (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How good..! Back in the game..!


----------



## brty (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Jaithomson,



> Hope it does down, otherwise Im bust..!






> How good..! Back in the game..!



It probably does not matter that you are now making a profit, you have all the tendancies of going bust in this game.

You are chasing tips/thoughts of everyone else, you are obviously overtrading your account size and relying on hope/luck.

You need to get your act together while you still have capital.

brty


----------



## korrupt_1 (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> The Lehman news is starting to take substance and could push it higher




The above should now read "The Lehman news is starting to fall apart and could see prices pushed lower"

... in a few hours the fundamentals can change on a dime... such volatility...


----------



## CAB SAV (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> The above should now read "The Lehman news is starting to fall apart and could see prices pushed lower"
> 
> ... in a few hours the fundamentals can change on a dime... such volatility...




Your'e not kidding. It is facinating though. I'm wondering if the USA fed's have got any more rabbits in their hat to pull out tonight.


----------



## blogs (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A cheery comment from The Age 

"It's the worst situation for the US banking system since The Great Depression."

Lets just get the cleanout over and done with-its like pulling teeth....


----------



## JZ009 (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> How good..! Back in the game..!




Was lucky shorting the index at the top on Saturday morning..... 

Aussie index probably going to recover a bit this afternoon, and then leave its fate with US markets tonight....


----------



## tech/a (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As Ive said nothing has changed.
Still bearish from my previous analysis there has been nothing to suggest any different.
Until there is----


----------



## gav (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The XJO has recently found support at 4800 and keeps bouncing off it. I reckon the US will get smashed tonight, and we will follow tomorrow. It will fall through 4800 easily tomorrow IMO...


----------



## korrupt_1 (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*LOST*
One white fluffy bunny rabbit. Goes by the name *BUNNY*. Very cute and cuddly... Anyone finding Bunny, please call the US FEDs so they can pull it out of a hat...​


----------



## justjohn (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If the rabbit out of the hat doesn't work tonight they might just as well pluck a hare from there ars-


----------



## Whiskers (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeah, but beware... 

how does that nursery rhyme go again... when the bears come out to play... 

We've had all this before... but with oil going the other way this time...


----------



## wayneL (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Yeah, but beware...
> 
> how does that nursery rhyme go again... when the bears come out to play...
> 
> We've had all this before... but with oil going the other way this time...




You can't plot a MACD divergence unless a pivot point low is in. Clearly we don't have that yet. 

...and think about why oil is off. I don't think POO is much of a factor at this point (my opinion).


----------



## CamKawa (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*




Whiskers said:


> how does that nursery rhyme go again... when the bears come out to play...



I'm not sure. How about... the bulls get impaled on a very large stake?


----------



## Whiskers (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> You can't plot a MACD divergence unless a pivot point low is in. Clearly we don't have that yet.




That's sorta my point. Beware that it may be just a pothole... (the latest chapter of bank/financials re-organisation) in a market that naturally is looking to see what's around the corner, economy wise.



> ...and think about why oil is off. I don't think POO is much of a factor at this point (my opinion).




Agree POO has nothing to do with this pothole, but POO has a lot to do with the short to medium term state of the economy. The outlook has gotta be better this time than previously... hasn't it? 

I don't see the world caring too much whether a couple of US based financials continue as is or revamped, so long as customers don't loose money and the system doesn't collapse.

At this point, it's looking to me like just another inevitable reorganisation that had/has to occur to be able to move on... a legacy of the past.



CamKawa said:


> I'm not sure. How about... the bulls get impaled on a very large stake?




Or a bear getting impaled on a stirring bull's horns.


----------



## kotim (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

we need a big washout, if we don't get it, it means that we have to have a long term slow release, or in other words a very long term base.


----------



## dhukka (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> You can't plot a MACD divergence unless a pivot point low is in. Clearly we don't have that yet.
> 
> ...and think about why oil is off. I don't think POO is much of a factor at this point (my opinion).




Wayne,

You just don't understand the fundamentals mate, it's all about oil. I mean sure the market is hitting new lows even though oil is off *-30%* from its highs. You see its just got to go bit lower and everything will be allright, promise. Afterall, those nasty investment banks use up so much oil for their CLO's CDO's and what not.


----------



## wayneL (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Wayne,
> 
> You just don't understand the fundamentals mate, it's all about oil. I mean sure the market is hitting new lows even though oil is off *-30%* from its highs. You see its just got to go bit lower and everything will be allright, promise. Afterall, those nasty investment banks use up so much oil for their CLO's CDO's and what not.


----------



## skyQuake (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Wayne,
> 
> You just don't understand the fundamentals mate, it's all about oil. I mean sure the market is hitting new lows even though oil is off *-30%* from its highs. You see its just got to go bit lower and everything will be allright, promise. Afterall, those nasty investment banks use up so much oil for their CLO's CDO's and what not.




What im worried about is that some ppl will take that post at face value...


----------



## lesm (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> *LOST*
> One white fluffy bunny rabbit. Goes by the name *BUNNY*. Very cute and cuddly... Anyone finding Bunny, please call the US FEDs so they can pull it out of a hat...​




Was that your rabbit. Oh..Oh...we lost our jobs ...the bank took our house..then the bank went bankrupt...we were hungry..looks like we ate your rabbit...you can have the skin back if that helps.


----------



## tech/a (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So ugly so early.---Nice.

And a very un happy FTSE.


----------



## auric (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

which way tomorrow??  
pnf chart XAO


----------



## wayneL (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> So ugly so early.---Nice.
> 
> And a very un happy FTSE.




The CAC has Cacked it too.


----------



## skyQuake (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey tech/a u see it cracking SPI low tonight? It's held pretty good so far.


----------



## Whiskers (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> What im worried about is that some ppl will take that post at face value...




Me too, but I don't think the average invester/trader is quite that silly.



Whiskers said:


> *Beware that it may be just a pothole... (the latest chapter of bank/financials re-organisation)* in a market that naturally is looking to see what's around the corner, economy wise.
> 
> 
> *Agree POO has nothing to do with this pothole*, but POO has a lot to do with the short to medium term state of the economy.






dhukka said:


> Wayne,
> 
> Afterall, *those nasty investment banks use up so much oil for their CLO's CDO's* and what not.




You would have to be a galoot!

...and in the meantime oil has plunged into the low 90's.


----------



## dhukka (15 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Me too, but I don't think the average invester/trader is quite that silly.
> 
> 
> You would have to be a galoot!




You would be wouldn't you? Yet that has been your exact argument. However, Whiskers the great revisionist is on the job. If the world doesn't fit your predictions just revise them to fit the outcome. What has he got left? completely wrong on technicals, completely wrong on fundamentals. What was that mantra again?



Whiskers said:


> my main aim is to provoke more discussion re positive events and investment opportunities for the average investor,




This needs a bit of revising



Whiskers said:


> my main aim is to provoke more discussion re positive events and investment opportunities for the average investor....



 to lose money,

Ahh that's better.


----------



## Whiskers (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Gaud, here we go again... you galoot, dhukka... I posted a nice winning trade the other day.

Since I and at least most other investors/traders choose our time to buy and sell by the short, medium or longer term cycles of the market and our investment/trading strategy, this may well prove to be the best buying swing for some time.

But dhukka haven't you got something better to do with your time than to get around spuriously carrying on a vendetta against anyone who has a different opinion to you.

You do realise that you intimidate some from posting for fear of savage and unscrouplously vendictive harrasment around the forum, don't you. Is that your altera motive!

How about you put up some good fundamental or technical analysis why the current financial reorganisation in the US will have such a significant long lasting impact for Australia and is not another over reaction?

You know put something substantial up to support your 'super'-bear propaganda.

Just as one indicator, I don't see any 'end of the financial world' type buying in gold yet.


----------



## dhukka (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Gaud, here we go again... you galoot, dhukka... I posted a nice winning trade the other day.
> 
> Since I and at least most other investors/traders choose our time to buy and sell by the short, medium or longer term cycles of the market and our investment/trading strategy, this may well prove to be the best buying swing for some time.
> 
> ...





Once again the straw man arguments arise. End of the world, super-bear eh? The worst day we had in the stockmarket in the last decade was January 22nd of this year and whilst chicken littles were running around screaming the sky is falling, I bought stock and then traded it out a week later for a 20% profit. As repeated ad nauseum, the further this market goes down, the more opportunities arise. 

As for putting up supporting arguments. They are all over this forum and unlike yourself I can don't need to revise them.


----------



## Whiskers (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Once again the straw man arguments arise. End of the world, super-bear eh? The worst day we had in the stockmarket in the last decade was January 22nd of this year and whilst chicken littles were running around screaming the sky is falling, *I bought stock and then traded it out a week later for a 20% profit*.




But, you said a few days ago that you don't trade!



> As repeated ad nauseum, the further this market goes down, the more opportunities arise.




Oh, thats it... you want to drive the market down to get some bargains.



> As for putting up supporting arguments. They are all over this forum and unlike yourself I can don't need to revise them.




Well, shouldn't you be held by the same rules as everyone else and referance the particular ones you rely on in a particular arguement!

Surely it's not too hard to summarize in a sentence or two... cos you know us active investors/traders haven't got the time to stalk around all of the threads... c'mon, there are some newbe's around that surely would gain from a quick precise of your compound wisdom.


----------



## dhukka (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> But, you said a few days ago that you don't trade!



 I don't. It was a rare opportunity. If you played a game of cricket in the back yard once, would you call yourself a cricketer? I'm not a trader, and I don't trade. 



Whiskers said:


> Oh, thats it... you want to drive the market down to get some bargains.



 What a ridiculous statement. How could anyone hope to drive the market down posting on ASF? Unlike yours, my analysis doesn't rely on hope. 



Whiskers said:


> Well, shouldn't you be held by the same rules as everyone else and reference the particular ones you rely on in a particular arguement!



 Yes I should, 



Whiskers said:


> Surely it's not too hard to summarize in a sentence or two... cos you know us active investors/traders haven't got the time to stalk around all of the threads... c'mon, there are some newbe's around that surely would gain from a quick precise of your compound wisdom.




It wouldn't do you any good whiskers, the rose coloured glasses have been welded firmly to your noggin.


----------



## tech/a (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Very ugly.

Some significant trading today I feel.
Those short----enjoy
Those long----well simply you shouldnt be.


----------



## tech/a (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*For those who see some symmetry.*




*For those who like to perhaps consider symmetry going forward.
*


----------



## Struzball (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Exciting


----------



## nomore4s (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Be interesting to see how the XAO reacts today, as alot of the news was known yesterday but I think the effect it had may have been underestimated.

Wonder how our financials will hold up.


----------



## tech/a (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I dont think there is any doubt "How" it will react.
Its how it finishes the day which will tell something more about the immediate future.
It is possible that many are starting to realise that this isnt going to go away.
Bank collapses will effect massively wide sections of business.

Personally I think you'll see the following unfold.
(1) Early morning panic sell off. say -180
(2) Systematic "Bargain" hunting say to around -80-100
(3) Late trading fear and sell off - say around -180 ish.

I love this clock and commentary---just watch it for a while and get a grip of the massive consumption WITHOUT production.

http://www.babylontoday.com/national_debt_clock.htm

SPI currently


----------



## CAB SAV (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Won't be looking for "bargins" just yet. Last time states had a significant fall like this was 9/11 and "fallout" took weeks before market settled down and so did ours. Will be waiting till US election is over & their blind euphoria returns before considering to re enter. Short till then at least.


----------



## mayk (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think the big miners are holding the XAO today... The impending announcement of an expected rate cut might spur a short rally in the street tonight. Alternatively, if AIG goes under then there is a slight change that all hell might break loose and we might see actual blood on the street.


----------



## white_goodman (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mayk said:


> I think the big miners are holding the XAO today... The impending announcement of an expected rate cut might spur a short rally in the street tonight. Alternatively, if AIG goes under then there is a slight change that all hell might break loose and we might see actual blood on the street.




what will that mkean to our big banks and financials?


----------



## Frank D (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I haven't bought back into Financials since the exact lows in July 
@ 4876:- pump and dump and exit @ the 3-week highs @ 5100

But i'll be moving back into Financials shortly....


----------



## Porper (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Frank D said:


> I haven't bought back into Financials since the exact lows in July
> @ 4876:- pump and dump and exit @ the 3-week highs @ 5100
> 
> But i'll be moving back into Financials shortly....




Frank, let us know exactly when you buy up big, especially as you bought at the exact low in July, then got out at the exact top.That's marvelous.


----------



## dhukka (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Wayne,
> 
> You just don't understand the fundamentals mate, it's all about oil. I mean sure the market is hitting new lows even though oil is off *-30%* from its highs. You see its just got to go bit lower and everything will be allright, promise. Afterall, those nasty investment banks use up so much oil for their CLO's CDO's and what not.




Oil at *US$92* a barrel. Just a little lower perhaps?


----------



## Frank D (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Porper,

The same reason Why I bought the exact lows in March @ 5056 and traded 900 point up move into MAY.

The same reason Why I bought in July, but this time the exit was based 
on the June breakout.  That's why I exitted:- breakout and expectation of
 a continuation down in this Quarter.

The Market is now trading around September lows, why do you think the market is holding up today.

Am I buying again....  NOT YET, but very very soon.

Because I don't think the September  lows will hold, but i'm still looking for a
 3-month UP move in the next Quarter, and then the market will go lower in 2009, once again making lower lows.

And I'll guarantee one thing, i'll be buying the lows in the market in 2009, 
just like I did in 2003.  And there are many old heads in this forum  now 
that were around on that day in March 2003.

Next time don't be a friggin smart *a**


----------



## Porper (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Frank D said:


> Porper,
> 
> 
> Next time don't be a friggin smart *a**




You know the exact reason why I was a smart *a* as you put it.

Telling everybody what a hero you were getting the exact tops and bottoms is a pointless exercise unless you put your money where your mouth is at the time.


----------



## nomore4s (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Be interesting to see how the XAO reacts today, as alot of the news was known yesterday but I think the effect it had may have been underestimated.
> 
> Wonder how our financials will hold up.




Well not as bad as I thought it would be, I had a feeling we would see some sort of strength (relative to overseas markets) after yesterday.

Been a bit of a mixed bag for the financials, WBC is even in the green


----------



## justjohn (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think yesterday took a bit of sting out of today MQG is down almost 18% over the last 2 days


----------



## Sunder (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Well not as bad as I thought it would be, I had a feeling we would see some sort of strength (relative to overseas markets) after yesterday.
> 
> Been a bit of a mixed bag for the financials, WBC is even in the green




I'm surprised as well. 

I think the big news tonight is the Fed meeting. I doubt 25bp cut when you're already sitting at a 2% target cash rate does much for you, but it might help the market up a touch tomorrow. If they cut 50bp, they're really risking inflation and skyrocketing "gas" prices over again.

I don't think it's over yet, but might be time for a breather.


----------



## white_goodman (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> I'm surprised as well.
> 
> I think the big news tonight is the Fed meeting. I doubt 25bp cut when you're already sitting at a 2% target cash rate does much for you, but it might help the market up a touch tomorrow. If they cut 50bp, they're really risking inflation and skyrocketing "gas" prices over again.
> 
> I don't think it's over yet, but might be time for a breather.




calm before the storm maby?


----------



## korrupt_1 (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> calm before the storm maby?




yes.. but which way is the wind blowing?


----------



## Nyden (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> yes.. but which way is the wind blowing?




Hopefully in the same direction as a lead-brick off the side of a cliff 
I really am awaiting some signal that a bottom has been reached; but what I'm really looking for is a major reduction in volatility.

I think for that to happen; we really need to see _blood on the streets_ as it were; and I just don't think we've seen that yet. Where are all the stories on the tele about old couples with ruined super funds, and people losing the lot? When this sort of thing becomes common story, and the average punter starts shorting (already starting to happen ... at least from what I can see from this thread  ... just might be time to buy.

Of course, with my bearish view on base-metals ... who knows where we'll be by the time that happens


----------



## white_goodman (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> yes.. but which way is the wind blowing?




ahh tooche....

whats the chances of more fallout in the US with there major banks? have the US had their reporting season like we've jsut had?


----------



## white_goodman (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

why was there such low volume today, is there something wrong with my graphs or did alot of things seem to move down on no volume?


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> why was there such low volume today,




Because your data is wrong. 
I got it as the highest volume since June Futs/Option Rollover


----------



## tcoates (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

white_goodman,

I have posted this link elsewhere

http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/mkt/indexDetails.ac?idx=XAO

The volume was highest since... well... end of June 08

Tim


----------



## auric (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

looks interesting at the moment still no sign of capitulation i am sitting on the sidelines at the moment with just a couple small buys in csm sector
need a decent down day and a period of consolidation to get keen
pnf xao comsec eod data up to 16/09/2008


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For the people that like to see the crossing of hands....


----------



## auric (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

the hand
increased volume closing above its low could say a reversal candle? if we can form a base here over the rest of the week and then break to the upside
we might start floating again but i wouldnt like to put all my money on it until the full ramifications of these cdo etc come out,i still think we will have to leg down to approx 4200 then consolidate before we start getting confidence
but who knows interesting times?
all i know i am cashed up;
 not like 87 when i was totally in the market and not happy


----------



## Sean K (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Didn't wavepicker call a significant bottom a few weeks ago?

That wasn't long after he called gold going down down down, before if rose $100 too?

Maybe skyhawk needs to choose a better mentor?


----------



## white_goodman (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



auric said:


> the hand
> increased volume closing above its low could say a reversal candle? if we can form a base here over the rest of the week and then break to the upside
> we might start floating again but i wouldnt like to put all my money on it until the full ramifications of these cdo etc come out,i still think we will have to leg down to approx 4200 then consolidate before we start getting confidence
> but who knows interesting times?
> ...




if the area gets retested on low volume in the next few days it may trigger an up move.... will be interesting to see what affect AIG has on the dow and in turn us...


----------



## auric (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

as my wife says when i open my charting program back to goat entrails


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Something has t US futs all jumpy in the last 30 min. ES (S&P500) is up 25 points since US close.


----------



## korrupt_1 (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Something has t US futs all jumpy in the last 30 min. ES (S&P500) is up 25 points since US close.




another volatile day.. great!


----------



## wayneL (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Something has t US futs all jumpy in the last 30 min. ES (S&P500) is up 25 points since US close.




AIG deal?


----------



## Porper (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> AIG deal?




If so, another massive spike up on the cards to make everybody cover their shorts.

Then the inevitable slow demise again probably.


----------



## korrupt_1 (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

sept futures expires tomorrow right?


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> sept futures expires tomorrow right?




Yep, why?


----------



## korrupt_1 (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yep, why?




looking out for funny business...

well... thats normal on any given day.. but looking out for more than normal funny business...


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The only thing that it will effect is that there will be huge volume tomorrow and the start will be staggered more than usual.

Yet to see anything happening on the actual rollover day.


----------



## sails (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> looking out for funny business...
> 
> well... thats normal on any given day.. but looking out for more than normal funny business...




And then option expiry next week - often another time for more funny business than usual...


----------



## jaithomson (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

we almost hit 4700 - go the shorts..!


----------



## Sean K (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Didn't wavepicker call a significant bottom a few weeks ago?
> 
> Maybe skyhawk needs to choose a better mentor?



I think it was 'significant' BOTTOM around 4800? 

Anyone else remember?



Where is skyhawk anyway?


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whats ya point Kennas?


----------



## Sean K (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Whats ya point Kennas?



Just refreshing memories...

Having some fun.



Read into it what you will.


----------



## bankit (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

4770 is a very major support level as it is 50% of the range of the start of the bullish run up on 13th March '03 and the top at 6783 on 1st November '07

Close today was 4769.7


----------



## Porper (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> This doesn't apply to the XAO, but if correct goes north with my XAO forecast.
> 
> Do EW'ers think it's a valid proposition?




 The new E.Wave guru had a E.Wave triangle breaking to the upside as well 

Maybe some will have a bit less of an ego now.


----------



## white_goodman (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bankit said:


> 4770 is a very major support level as it is 50% of the range of the start of the bullish run up on 13th March '03 and the top at 6783 on 1st November '07
> 
> Close today was 4769.7




hmmm but bad news coming from the US tonight or tomorrow will have enough 'effort' to smash that support line me thinks


----------



## nomore4s (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> The new E.Wave guru had a E.Wave triangle breaking to the upside as well
> 
> Maybe some will have a bit less of an ego now.




lol, I doubt it. Remember there was also a hedged call , so I'm sure we'll all hear about how it was called correctly.


----------



## bankit (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> hmmm but bad news coming from the US tonight or tomorrow will have enough 'effort' to smash that support line me thinks




Agreed. 

If it breaks we are heading down a lot further. 
I can not see a bottom in as yet  :headshake


----------



## white_goodman (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> lol, I doubt it. Remember there was also a hedged call , so I'm sure we'll all hear about how it was called correctly.




yeh you can never be wrong if you bet both ways....

however i see no harm in having a stab at a price level as long as you can back it up with a well supported theory or chart...


----------



## Sunder (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We have an classic inverted hammer today.

When that comes during a downward trend, that usually indicates shorts are closing their position.

Undecided what I want to do. I don't believe we are anywhere near bottom, but it could be a bit of a resting period as the AIG and Lehman deals (or lack of deals) works its way through the market. I fear a bear market rally, but I guess I'll read it from tonight's trading in the US, and Futures at 7am tomorrow.


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> We have an classic inverted hammer today.
> 
> When that comes during a downward trend, that usually indicates shorts are closing their position.




Could ya explain this one for me? With some evidence would be nice. If not, at least your thinking


----------



## Whiskers (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> The new E.Wave guru had a E.Wave triangle breaking to the upside as well
> 
> Maybe some will have a bit less of an ego now.




T'was a possibility to consider mate. Gotta keep an open mind eh. 



nomore4s said:


> lol, I doubt it. Remember there was also a hedged call , so I'm sure we'll all hear about how it was called correctly.




Nah, no need to doubt it. 

After all it ain't over til the fat lady sings.



white_goodman said:


> yeh you can never be wrong if you bet both ways....
> 
> however i see no harm in having a stab at a price level as long as you can back it up with a well supported theory or chart...




That's the spirit mate. 

But, I did pick the top of this little swing. She (the fat lady) must have been sitting in the passenger seat... caused this bit of a pothole to be felt a bit worse that's all. 

But hey, It hasn't changed the big picture.

After all I don't abandon a trip just because the car hit a pothole and got a flat... or if some dude has a crash and delayed me for a bit. 

Don't panic folks... she'll be all right.

Oh, and I only use EW as a range finder to select my target. I'm still driven by FA. 

Porper mate how about you put up your EW chart for scritiny? What is your current count and projection... or why it can't possibly go up?

Anyone else for that matter got the balz to post a chart. If yer come under attack from the ravenous bears, I'll come to yer aid and beat em off a bit.


----------



## skyQuake (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Anyone else remember?
> 
> 
> 
> Where is skyhawk anyway?




buried in rubble after a skyquake


----------



## Awesomandy (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> We have an classic inverted hammer today.




With the XAO right on the fib level, I'm not surprised that people are closing their shorts. If it breaks this level, they'll just open them up again. (But then, given the time I have at the moment, my current analysis resembles mostly to the "lick your finger and stick it in the air" method.)

There's no way telling what might happen though. Looking at HBOS (in ftse) today... last close 184.73, open 200.00, current intra-day low 88.00 (yes, eighty eight p only), last traded price (as I type) 191.00. Good luck trading on this one.


----------



## Sunder (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Could ya explain this one for me? With some evidence would be nice. If not, at least your thinking




The usual thinking is that in a downward trend, any spikes up aren't usually bulls trying to pick bargains, but failing to drive the price up, but rather shorters that want to close, and so are short spikes. 

And so there is usually a continuation of the existing down pattern with a few hours of upward movement like we saw today. This doesn't mean the downward slope has fully ended, but rather that there is enough doubt for a large portion of the shorting community either want to lock in profits, or are uncertain enough of the direction to pull out.

As for evidence? Since when did reading chicken guts require evidence?


----------



## Julia (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> In Australia meanwhile, the Reserve Bank flooded the financial system with over $4 billion in cash this morning as it sought to keep cash rates steady while the fate of American International Group (AIG) was being sorted out in New York.
> 
> 
> After adding $A2.1 billion on Monday and $A1.895 billion Tuesday to meet a system deficit of $A1.39 million over the two days, the RBA added $A4.285 billion today to meet a system deficit of $2.18 billion. That was after the Exchange Settlement Account was left flush Tuesday night with over $4 billion in cash and nervous Australian banks wanted quick cash overnight in case AIG or some other big problem got worse.



The above quote is from today's Crikey.com.
Apologies if this is a silly question, but when we hear that "The RB flooded the financial system with over $4 billion in cash this morning......" etc, does this mean - in terms of the mechanics - that it simply makes that much more cash available for interbank borrowing from the Reserve?

If that's wrong, could someone kindly outline how it all actually works?

With thanks.


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thats what I thought you would say but I reckon you are wrong. Have a look at the chart today and there was nothing but selling from the open.

As for evidence you can always find it in Open interest or put/call ratios. Will be a bit hard to figure so close to expire but e will see tomorrow when the stats are out. I just didn't see any covering today.


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On second thoughts I know where you are coming from. Just the amount of shorts covering on a early morning pop would be miniscule.


----------



## Sunder (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Thats what I thought you would say but I reckon you are wrong. Have a look at the chart today and there was nothing but selling from the open.
> 
> As for evidence you can always find it in Open interest or put/call ratios. Will be a bit hard to figure so close to expire but e will see tomorrow when the stats are out. I just didn't see any covering today.




I'm wondering what you mean by "nothing but selling from the open", as every trade needs to have a counter party. 

Unless you mean offers to sell? I have a hard time putting any credibility in the "market depth" figures. I've seen shares where there are 1000 buyers for 10,000,000 units, and 200 sellers for 2,500,000 units, (roughly, obviously. I think it was MQG quite a few months ago) and the share price still fell that day.


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No I mean it did nothing but go down from the open. Sellers over whelmed the buyers and the price fell.

In fact I was waiting for the volume to hit prices higher on the open and there was a distinct lack of volume moving up, much to my dismay!


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And yes mostly large orders sitting in the DOM attract movements rather than repel IMHO....


----------



## korrupt_1 (17 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

futures down nearly 200pts since the high this morning...

feels like capitulation is getting closer... any day now, all hells going to break loose... then the buying frenzy will start... and I have pockets full of loose change from lunch to buy a few lots


----------



## barry593 (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

50% as someone pointed out previously...  this is on the XJO...


----------



## skyQuake (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We broke that fair and square. Should finally see some proper panicky selling .
(XJO around 4550s). Some blood on the streets tomorrow morning...


----------



## tech/a (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Julia said:


> The above quote is from today's Crikey.com.
> Apologies if this is a silly question, but when we hear that "The RB flooded the financial system with over $4 billion in cash this morning......" etc, does this mean - in terms of the mechanics - that it simply makes that much more cash available for interbank borrowing from the Reserve?
> 
> If that's wrong, could someone kindly outline how it all actually works?
> ...




Yes Julia.


----------



## mayk (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Now I often wonder what happened to the great theory of decoupling 

Anyway, today we might have a controlled panic, with an uncontrolled panic on Friday. Thursdays, I don't think are renowned for capitulation.  Septembers and Fridays make a deadly combination.


----------



## Sean K (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> buried in rubble after a skyquake



LOL....

skyhawks call for that significant bottom must be able to be explained away by something. Might as well be a quake....


----------



## theasxgorilla (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mayk said:


> *Now I often wonder what happened to the great theory of decoupling*
> 
> Anyway, today we might have a controlled panic, with an uncontrolled panic on Friday. Thursdays, I don't think are renowned for capitulation.  Septembers and Fridays make a deadly combination.




That's an economic theory...not necessarily share market based.

Don't think that will change the fact that the XAO is toast today.


----------



## Sunder (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Don't think that will change the fact that the XAO is toast today.




This is weird. Last futures trade was down 153 points - more than 3%

But every ASX200 share I look at, the pre-open price is set to skyrocket, and there are far more buyers than sellers. 

Some fantastic news released between 7am and now?

Toast - but which side is getting burned, the longs or the shorts?


----------



## Kauri (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> This is weird. Last futures trade was down 153 points - more than 3%
> 
> But every ASX200 share I look at, the pre-open price is set to skyrocket, and there are far more buyers than sellers.
> 
> ...




wait untill the pre-open auction opens... see how many spec buy orders placed yesterday are pulled...
  incidentally.... get in quick and buy banks with your ears pinned back..

Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Sunder (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> wait untill the pre-open auction opens... see how many spec buy orders placed yesterday are pulled...
> incidentally.... get in quick and buy banks with your ears pinned back..
> 
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Ah, so you think that a lot of people were speculatively "picking bottom" and now when it was clear the US didn't behave, they'll pull?

This far out from start of trade, I'll believe that. 

Too bad if a few of them couldn't get to work today to cancel their orders


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Its Futures expiry Sunder you will have the Arbs crossing hands on three months worth of work. It means nothing.

Certainly not anything in a directional bet sense.


----------



## Sunder (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Its Futures expiry Sunder you will have the Arbs crossing hands on three months worth of work. It means nothing.
> 
> Certainly not anything in a directional bet sense.




My turn to ask you to explain something 

What is the effect of futures contract expiry on the market? I've never really looked into futures trading.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You have three month of arbitrage and hedges buying/selling the Futures and doing the opposite with stocks. What they are trying to do is not place directional bets but rather take profit between the two mispriced instruments.

Come expiry when you have to deliver the product or cash or roll into the next contract stock prices have realigned. So mostly the trades are unwound.

You will see huge volume. Everyone gets excited about it but they mean nothing in terms of a directional bet. Same thing kinda happens with options expiry next week.


----------



## wayneL (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Same thing kinda happens with options expiry next week.



You can get stocks pinning to certain strikes as MM's flip stock back and forth to hedge delta. But no directional connotations


----------



## Temjin (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ouch, it's a bloodbath, 160 points down! 

The next fib support level from 2003 - 2007 is at 4300.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*OMG!!!*


----------



## Sunder (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I took my 76% gain on my shorts and ran.

My feel is that it's got a bit more to go, but I'm not willing to risk my gains to try to chase the last few percent. I'm not a greedy man, after all 76% in less than a week should be a good return for anyone!

Carnage.


----------



## bankit (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> The next fib support level from 2003 - 2007 is at 4300.




I agree that range 4275/4300 is the next Fib support. It is also where we have the high of 20/06/05 and the low of 21/10/05


----------



## dhukka (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Still early days but it seems fairly tame in comparison to Jan 22nd when we dropped more than 400 pts.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Still early days but it seems fairly tame in comparison to Jan 22nd when we dropped more than 400 pts.




Yeah I think the shorts may have a hard time holding this down today.


----------



## Green08 (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just just 4599.2 XAO down 170.5


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> I took my 76% gain on my shorts and ran.
> ................
> after all 76% in less than a week should be a good return for anyone!




Sunder what point is quoting return on margin 

I have a Futures account a CFD account and a Cash account.

I can make exactly the same trade and get the following results,

Shares 0.2%
Futs 3.8%
CFD 43%

Which one is the best trade? Only thing that's worth quoting is points NOT ROM.


----------



## korrupt_1 (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> *OMG!!!*




Well put.... but you left out "F"


----------



## tech/a (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> *OMG!!!*




Clearly you were short and this is the reaction of a very happy camper!!


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Clearly you were short and this is the reaction of a very happy camper!!




Nah Tech. 100% cash overnight....... every night.....in any case rarely get excited about wins.


----------



## Aussiest (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We'll be in for a bounce tomorrow, you watch. But, how long-lived... who knows?!

Sensible decision about cash over-night Tremble. I bet your hands aren't trembling too much now


----------



## Whiskers (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ok you bears and shorters and speculators and whatever else :, this pot hole is quite big enough thank you very much.

Time to get things back on track here. 

According to the law of rubberbands and EW Expanded Flats and psysic, this has got to turn around pretty quickly and pretty soon.

Since this B wave is getting a bit stretched, the rebound C has gotta go for six... way over the heads of yer bludy bears.


----------



## jono_oz (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

USA/CNN:  SEC puts 'naked' short sellers on notice
Regulator enacts new ruling banning 'naked' short selling on all public companies.

Bring on the same laws here and pronto!


----------



## Aussiest (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeah, i reckon it'll bounce tomorrow, but how far? I don't see that we can have another bull run until all this stuff in the U.S. is sorted out, and what if it does leak over to here?

Not using TA, and using common sense only (i wonder if i have any left), the fallout from this mess would have to take at least one year to sort out? Think about it on a smaller scale with credit card debt default and things like that, only translate it to a larger scale. Imo, and i'm not very educated at all of this, this is the beginning of the end stage of the credit crisis (??), where the fears are being realised.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jono_oz said:


> Bring on the same laws here and pronto!




LOL. That will fix every thing


----------



## tech/a (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers.

Can I recommend a good book?


----------



## nomore4s (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> LOL. That will fix every thing




lol, yeah it sure will. That's the reason the stock markets worldwide are getting punished. Damn short sellers.

Got nothing to do with companies over loaded on debt and major banks going under due to excessive debt and creative accounting and the short term thinking (greed) of these companies. All the dodgy practices are finally coming home to roost and they can't sweep it under the carpet anymore.

But if we stop short selling that will fix everything


----------



## Aussiest (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> All the dodgy practices are finally coming home to roost and they can't sweep it under the carpet anymore.




Yeah, it seems that way.


----------



## Whiskers (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Whiskers.
> 
> Can I recommend a good book?




By all means Tech.

By the way what do ya think the current situation is?


----------



## Porper (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Porper mate how about you put up your EW chart for scritiny? What is your current count and projection... or why it can't possibly go up?
> 
> Anyone else for that matter got the balz to post a chart.




Whiskers, my thoughts and charts haven't changed from my previous analysis on here.

I fully admit I thought we would get a bigger bounce, but the medium term end target remains the same for now and that is XJO around 4000.

I sent this Nasdaq chart privately to a few on here on the 14th August (the e.o.d top)

Just because it was a very clear count.Much clearer than the DOW or XJO.So far it is spot on.If it stays accurate we have far, far lower to go.Pretty scary if it pans out, unless you are short of course.

You asked why we can't go higher.

We can, just highly unlikely from an Elliot Wave point of view.


----------



## white_goodman (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

stopping volume today?

low volume up move tomorrow showing weakness then another plunge down monday?


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> stopping volume today?




Thats funny. Why the large volume?


----------



## white_goodman (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Thats funny. Why the large volume?




wouldnt have a clue, something bout option expiries or something, jsut trying to ask the question


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Whiskers.
> 
> Can I recommend a good book?




I got one...........


----------



## tcoates (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> stopping volume today?
> 
> low volume up move tomorrow showing weakness then another plunge down monday?





I saw the large volume also. But I wont go so far as to call it that. Anyway the close was in the bottom half by my calculations (that's using my eyes).

Tim


----------



## white_goodman (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoates said:


> I saw the large volume also. But I wont go so far as to call it that. Anyway the close was in the bottom half by my calculations (that's using my eyes).
> 
> Tim




yeh im jsut suggesting we might get a breather tomorrow before another plunge monday, possibly a good opportunity to get some more shorts


----------



## Porper (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I got one...........




After that, this very advanced E.Wave book is a must for very serious analysts


----------



## mit (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Doom and Gloom, Doom and Gloom. I think that talk about the end of the world is a little overstated. I think that some of the debt junkie companies are going to get washed out (and anybody who has read FIASCO or Liar's Poker can't doubt that they may deserve it)  but I don't think that we are going to see massive unemployment.

I was flicking through the ASX100 today (surprising how many companies are still going okay on the charts) and noticed the high volume. Unfortunately the lion's share of the volume was in the am and the afternoon rise was at a lighter volume so I think that the bounce will be short lived. I think that the next stop will be around 4200.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> After that, this very advanced E.Wave book is a must for very serious analysts




PERFECT, I got that one. From the back cover,



> Elliot the cat lives by the sea, a perfect place for a fish-loving cat to be. At least it would be, if only he could catch one! How is Elliot the harbour cat going to get his dinner? Hitching a ride on a fishing boat seems like a good idea, until it all goes horribly wrong!



:


----------



## dhukka (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> PERFECT, I got that one. From the back cover,
> 
> 
> Quote:
> ...




That's absolutely brilliant. Surely the author is an ASFer?


----------



## jono_oz (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

RE: John Mack CEO of Morgan Stanley.
"After the strong earnings and $179 billion in liquidity we announced yesterday - which virtually every equity analyst highlighted in their notes this morning - there is no rational basis for the movements in our stock or credit default spreads," Mack wrote.

He continued: "What's happening out there? It's very clear to me - we're in the midst of a market controlled by fear and rumours, and short sellers are driving our stock down."


I am sure making short selling illegal is not the only solution to changing the direction of this market, and he might be must making up all these figures. Though having watched this thread for some months now, I can tell that making figures say what you want them to say is an art alive and well practiced! But you can't deny that 'naked short sellers' are driving the 'correction we had to have' for their own ends and not for any moral crusade to fix the evil structure of over bloated investment banks.


----------



## tech/a (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And so when all shorts start getting covered?


----------



## dhukka (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jono_oz said:


> RE: John Mack CEO of Morgan Stanley.
> "After the strong earnings and $179 billion in liquidity we announced yesterday - which virtually every equity analyst highlighted in their notes this morning - there is no rational basis for the movements in our stock or credit default spreads," Mack wrote.
> 
> He continued: "What's happening out there? It's very clear to me - we're in the midst of a market controlled by fear and rumours, and short sellers are driving our stock down."
> ...





This short selling is to blame argument, would have to be one of the biggest bogus loads of nonsense I've ever heard. As Barry Ritholtz of the Big Picture recently said:



> Wow, this guy Christopher Ailman is utterly clueless.  I don't usually say things like this, but "Way to keep your eye on ball, genius!"
> 
> I don't have much of a problem with the uptick rule -- its pointless, and is easily worked around by hedge funds -- but i can take it or leave. And, I agree that rules against naked short-selling -- already illegal -- should be enforced.
> 
> ...



Great Interview with Nouriel Roubini  who points out the flaws in business models of MS and GS and why they are ultimately doomed in the current environment. If your business is sound, it will be the short sellers that will get burned, not the other way round.


----------



## Awesomandy (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> yeh im jsut suggesting we might get a breather tomorrow before another plunge monday, possibly a good opportunity to get some more shorts




I think so too. A lot of work has been done recently already, and there's a bit of a gap to cover as well. I'm also taking a guess, and would say that there's quite a bit of shorts to be covered. While I don't have the evidence, it does look to me that shorts are being covered towards the end of each the day for the last few trading days, so we might see a little bit more of that just as the weekend is arriving. I wouldn't say that we'll plunge again on Monday, however, but sooner or later, given recent events, I would imagine that it is likely for the xao to head down to the 38.2 fib level (~4275 points) in the future.


----------



## tcoates (18 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Totally unrelated to the XAO but ...

Reading about all the doom and gloom... Waiting patiently on the sidelines. Watching Lateline and listening to some guy talk about the US markets...

Had a look at the VIX and is approaching levels not seen since Nov 2002 (and prev Apr 1998). At both these times the there was a "dip" in the indices.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX#chart1:symbol=^vix;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

and (for the DOW)...

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart2:symbol=^dji;range=19980102,20080917;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

FEAR RUNNING RIOT

Makes a contrarian (?) indicator, but I would wait for a bit of a downturn there before I thought there was a change in direction.

Funnily, one of the pages that I was on had a link to this news article also

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2008184337_stoxcenter17.html

My point... Whether it is short sellers doing all the damage, or bad debt, or bad business is neither here nor there. It has to be FEAR (lack of rationale thought?) pure and simple at the moment. FEAR of losing what you once had - $$$. And that will drive it down further until someone sees value in it....

... and the cycle starts over.

Tim


----------



## Whiskers (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I got one...........




Read that one years ago. Haven't you noticed?



Porper said:


> After that, this very advanced E.Wave book is a must for very serious analysts




Now porper mate, that's not true. My pussy cat is a terrific hunter, even with only one front leg, he still rounds up them mice very nicely.



dhukka said:


> That's absolutely brilliant. Surely the author is an ASFer?




I could get into some connotations of your avatars, but to match it in your demeanor, well that's a bit beneath me.

But hey, look... I've got a good book for you lot... cover below.

Also a little quiz. Tell me what is this quote and which book it is from.

_The immediate economic potential for an individual, an industry, or society can be explained by examining the technology gap, the best practices possible with current knowledge, and the practices in actual use._

And, what is the question on page 185 of Napoleon Hill's best seller?


----------



## white_goodman (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

strong lead from the US this morning?


----------



## mayk (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It seems Paulson's plan will lift the market. 

Well, we might get a short sucker rally. Will be a tough day for shorters, but I guess all the smart ones would have covered their shorts by now, suckers as usual would have been caught again. 

This plan might not take the banks to their former glory immediately, but surely provide stability to the market, which is desperately needed. 

I think US Govt. has started providing a proper solution long overdue, which they were postponing for the next administration. 

The big question is will XAO go below 4000? Any opinions?


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jono_oz said:


> But you can't deny that 'naked short sellers' are driving the 'correction we had to have'




Ah more denial. Pity the poor punter trying to make money in the markets when they can't even see the state the market is in.

Reminds me of a timely quote "It's the economy, stupid"


----------



## tcoates (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Originally Posted by *jono_oz*
> 
> 
> _But you can't deny that 'naked short sellers' are driving the 'correction we had to have'_




Well somebody believes that

*FSA to ban short-selling of financial stocks*

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/16102460-85a0-11dd-a1ac-0000779fd18c.html

But that would just the short sellers to look elsewhere?!?

Tim


----------



## tech/a (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Little has changed*.
Perhaps some recognition of the dire straits world financial markets are in.

You cant run economies from a printing press.
Handing a bomb victim a bandaid wont stop them bleeding to death.

Now watching for old support to become the new resistance.


----------



## GreatPig (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting point the XAO is at right now in terms of the trend since 1987 (the earliest I have data for). Pretty much back at the main trendline, but still a bit of room for overshoot as has previously occurred.

If it breaks through those levels, then we really are in a bear market! 

The slope of that trendline is about 7% pa, if I remember correctly (it was some time ago I worked it out). The lower orange trendline is currently around 3840.

GP


----------



## korrupt_1 (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

DOW Futures up almost 100pts since closing... Still on the eurphoria of last nights huge gains...

AU should have a very nice gap up this morning...


----------



## Struzball (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Stocks keep rising ie, MQG opened 33.00, dropped to 31.50, risen to 34.00, could the reason for its rise be punters desperate to close their shorts from yesterday?

Surely people can't be THAT optimistic following a 30% fall in SP yesterday.


----------



## white_goodman (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Struzball said:


> Stocks keep rising ie, MQG opened 33.00, dropped to 31.50, risen to 34.00, could the reason for its rise be punters desperate to close their shorts from yesterday?
> 
> Surely people can't be THAT optimistic following a 30% fall in SP yesterday.




if it closes off the highs... i know what ill be doing


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's something for discussion. 

Someone with HUGE pockets are throwing around big orders in the FUTs , 100 lots and greater.

Don't tell me that's not MQG desk with the buy button turned up to 11 


Shorts are manipulators. LOL


----------



## Greg71 (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If they need to start making up new rules, like banning short selling, there must be something fundamentally wrong.


----------



## TheAbyss (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Also a little quiz. Tell me what is this quote and which book it is from.
> 
> _The immediate economic potential for an individual, an industry, or society can be explained by examining the technology gap, the best practices possible with current knowledge, and the practices in actual use._




Paul Zane Pilzer Unlimited Wealth Six laws of Wealth generation
Cant help with the question on Think and grow rich though, sorry.


----------



## Sunder (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

End of a crazy day. I think I have adrenaline burnout

Anyone game to make comments about what will happen over the weekend?


----------



## tech/a (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> End of a crazy day. I think I have adrenaline burnout
> 
> Anyone game to make comments about what will happen over the weekend?




Yes.

The Preliminary Finals will be played in the AFL on Saturday.
I'll go for a long Bike Ride Sunday.


----------



## white_goodman (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Yes.
> 
> The Preliminary Finals will be played in the AFL on Saturday.
> I'll go for a long Bike Ride Sunday.




yeh i dont know what im gonna do, Manlys got the week off


----------



## CAB SAV (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> End of a crazy day. I think I have adrenaline burnout
> 
> Anyone game to make comments about what will happen over the weekend?




Same, big day, big week. Guessing market probably Ok till later in week. Still lot of crap to come.
Anyway, w/end starts now for me, off to pub.


----------



## lular (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A question for those with (much) more knowledge.

Just an observation ( have been doing some research on E/W in past days).

If Im counting correctly aren't we due for another leg down at some stage soon?:nuts:


----------



## Panacea (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> yeh i dont know what im gonna do, Manlys got the week off




Manly are too strong for the Warriors. Too much skill, too much power, too much talent.


----------



## korrupt_1 (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*OMG!!!!*

*Market has gone BUNTA!!!*


----------



## subaru69 (19 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> *OMG!!!!*
> 
> *Market has gone BUNTA!!!*




I know this won't last forever but let's revell whilst we can and sorry shorters but you've done me no favours recently.


----------



## Whiskers (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> *OMG!!!!*
> 
> *Market has gone BUNTA!!!*




Why are you so surprised? 

Heck, even a poor old house cat saw it coming. 



Whiskers said:


> Ok you bears and shorters and speculators and whatever else :, this pot hole is quite big enough thank you very much.
> 
> Time to get things back on track here.
> 
> ...


----------



## korrupt_1 (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Why are you so surprised?
> 
> Heck, even a poor old house cat saw it coming.




We all knew it was coming... but never on this magnitude... that's what surprised me... comon guys, be truthful... did u think it would recover this fast?

Almost 500pts from bottom to peak in less than 24hrs.... 

The amount of agressive buying over this global rally has really surprised me... this has got to be one of the largest one day recovery in history...


----------



## nunthewiser (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> We all knew it was coming... but never on this magnitude... that's what surprised me... comon guys, be truthful... did u think it would recover this fast?
> 
> Almost 500pts from bottom to peak in less than 24hrs....
> 
> The amount of agressive buying over this global rally has really surprised me... this has got to be one of the largest one day recovery in history...




to be followed soon by the biggest one day fall across the globe in history , watch this space things are warming up for the sucker punch that will knock ya socks off....... only my opinion , listen dont listen gunna be intresting regardless


----------



## Whiskers (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> We all knew it was coming... but never on this magnitude... that's what surprised me... comon guys, be truthful... did u think it would recover this fast?
> 
> Almost 500pts from bottom to peak in less than 24hrs....
> 
> The amount of agressive buying over this global rally has really surprised me... this has got to be one of the largest one day recovery in history...




No, I didn't expect this sort of a bounce... because I really didn't think this 'pot hole' would get so deep. 

But as it got deeper I could see no other option than the US regulators really jumping on 'suspicious' activity particularly 'naked' shorting, since they had threatened to previously if the market couldn't regulate itself.

I think it's just going to be a fact of life now that a few greedy and unscroupulous operators have tried to exploit the market going up then down again and got the lawmakers really pissed off enough to force their hand to more heavily regulate and monitor the system.

While some problems still exist in the US it just seemed inevetable that something like this would happen... I can't just recall the exact phrase I used some time ago (U F might recall )... bit it was basically that the worst of the US economic fallout would be deferred to another day.


----------



## Speewha (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hello,

The last hurrah of the Lemmings is nigh 

Regards


----------



## nomore4s (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> While some problems still exist in the US it just seemed inevetable that something like this would happen... I can't just recall the exact phrase I used some time ago (U F might recall )... bit it was basically that the worst of the US economic fallout would be deferred to another day.




lol, some problems still exist?

How has anything changed? What problems did they actually fix?
Nothing, just applied more bandaid fixes to make it look like they are doing something. 

We could all end up paying the price for these shortsighted attempts to fix things imo.


----------



## white_goodman (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> lol, some problems still exist?
> 
> How has anything changed? What problems did they actually fix?
> Nothing, just applied more bandaid fixes to make it look like they are doing something.
> ...




not could we WILL...

can someone explain to me how the CEO of MQG sold all his shares and no-ones talking about it?


----------



## mit (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> No, I didn't expect this sort of a bounce... because I really didn't think this 'pot hole' would get so deep.
> 
> But as it got deeper I could see no other option than the US regulators really jumping on 'suspicious' activity particularly 'naked' shorting, since they had threatened to previously if the market couldn't regulate itself.
> 
> ...




Naked shorters may send the price down but these companies are going broke. The fed may have saved some of their mates but there is still the recession. This might be the bottom (Although it wouldn't surprise me to see another downleg, I was expecting the market to drop another 200-300 pts) but I doubt that the market will do anything but go sideways for awhile.


----------



## MrBurns (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> UBS surged 31.7 per cent, Barclays advanced 29.2 per cent and HBOS jumped 28.9 per cent in Europe.
> 
> In the United States, midway through trading Goldman Sachs had gained 25 per cent, Citigroup jumped 24 per cent, Merrill Lynch rose 25 per cent, Bank of America soared 36 per cent and Wachovia climbed 32 per cent.




Some lucky bastards were onto this no doubt, I have to wait 3 years to get some of those returns that they got in a day.

I guess you have to be prepared to lose the lot though.


----------



## korrupt_1 (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mit said:


> ...the market will do anything but go sideways for awhile.





i'll second that opinion... with reporting season coming, i can't see high expectation of large profits we've seen in the last few years... the market will have no reason to return to the levels it once was.

range from 4500-5200 for the next 6-12months


----------



## M34N (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> lol, some problems still exist?
> 
> How has anything changed? What problems did they actually fix?
> Nothing, just applied more bandaid fixes to make it look like they are doing something.
> ...




I agree. Nothing has changed, it's only the fact that 'confidence' has been restored in the financial system by the US Government by bailing out AIG, then setting up a fund to take the burden of debts off other financial institutions. What concerns me is who is going to pay the $US500-or-so billion that it's reported to cost to fix these problems? Point being, the debt is still there, and someone is still going to pay for it. So how has the problems over the past week been fixed? Like you've said, another temporary fix.

Was interesting to see the US dollar getting dumped again last night, but the Dow up 350 points, it's pretty obvious this is just short covering. Think about this; gold was up $90 or around 11% for the week, while the Dow finished down 40 points or about 0.3%. So instead of people shorting all these stocks, where will the money go?

Personally, I reckon we may see more money pumped into commodities because of the falling dollar and this ban on shorting stocks, thus putting more pressure longer-term on the market with higher costs and higher interest rates eventually. Stagflation anyone? 

Interesting times!


----------



## MrBurns (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The more I think about it this is just to save the necks of the big guys. 
The man in the street gets nothing really and he's paying for it.


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey whiskers I'm hopping you have some of your usually after the fact analysis on oil vs Equity markets.

A couple of weeks ago you main theme was high oil was killing the markets. Last night oil jumped 5% but equity markets around the world had their biggest jump in 20 odd years.  Surely if oil high oil is the driver of the markets woes, like you were stating a little while ago, I wouldn't be looking at a screen of *green.*


----------



## Ferret (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Last night oil jumped 5% but equity markets around the world had their biggest jump in 20 odd years. :confused::eek: Surely if oil high oil is the driver of the markets woes said:
			
		

> green.[/B]




You didn't notice there was a little bit more news out there last night than just the oil price?


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Ferret said:


> You didn't notice there was a little bit more news out there last night than just the oil price?




Really???? 

thansks for that


----------



## jaithomson (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



lular said:


> A question for those with (much) more knowledge.
> 
> Just an observation ( have been doing some research on E/W in past days).
> 
> If Im counting correctly aren't we due for another leg down at some stage soon?:nuts:




Yes, Monday \ Tuesday is Leg Down Day.


----------



## lioness (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> Yes, Monday \ Tuesday is Leg Down Day.




Monday/Tuseday down, what planet are you from - URANUS?


----------



## nomore4s (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> Yes, Monday \ Tuesday is Leg Down Day.






lioness said:


> Monday/Tuseday down, what planet are you from - URANUS?




lol, I hope you don't have that short still open jaithomson because I doubt very much that Monday will be in the red and I woud be surprised if Tuesday is a down day.


----------



## jaithomson (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ok smarty pants - when are we due for a leg down then..?


----------



## Nyden (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> ok smarty pants - when are we due for a leg down then..?




We might not be ... ? We might be though ... ?


Personally I might just take up a long position on Monday; I really am satisfied with what I'm seeing in the media. Incredibly bearish -  a news brief on nearly every commercial break about the market ... Heck, I think I saw a commercial on Channel 7 for special hosted by that Kosh (spelling?) character about preserving capital throughout all this!


----------



## IFocus (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Daily chart of XAO shows down trend still intact

Volume suggests a bounce of some sort

Action in the US might suggest an easing of risk for the financial system

Suggest over all conditions remain the same


.


----------



## Struzball (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Does anybody believe these companies which are rescued with $1Trillion (I heard from a news update) worth of bailouts, are actually suddenly worth $1Trillion more?  
If they need $1T to 'recover', their business models are pretty well useless in which case their shares should be worthless.

After all, aren't they just transferring their debt from banks to the fed?
In which case it makes an even scarier scenario when rather than banks collapsing due to sub-prime/prime mortgages, it's the entire US government!

I don't think I would be going long for the long term at the moment at all.  But definitely a good time to earn a quick buck on the optimism of idiots over the next few days.

I bet banning shorting in the short term will be great, but horrendous for the long term.  However that's another thread.


----------



## MrBurns (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The $1T is just the debt and yes, the US taxpayer is buying the debt ridden assets in some hope of selling them again in some magical future time probably in the Twiight Zone.

While people starve in the ghettos the pricks who caused this have their debt taken off their hands thanks to the taxpayer.


----------



## Julia (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> lol, some problems still exist?
> 
> How has anything changed? What problems did they actually fix?
> Nothing, just applied more bandaid fixes to make it look like they are doing something.
> ...



It seems too obvious to even be worth the comment, but if all this debt just gets absorbed by the taxpayer (which is what seems to be being proposed) what's to say the people who caused this mess won't just go and do it all again?   Given the parlous state of the US economy, they're hardly likely to raise interest rates, so isn't that environment ripe for a repeat performance in the knowledge that whatever debacle you oversee, Uncle Sam will just put it right for you?
Maybe I'm not correctly understanding the whole situation, and am happy to be corrected.

Meantime, here is Colin Twiggs' view of the recent bounce:



> The press is full of headlines about stocks soaring and massive rallies. I cannot imagine too many fund managers rushing out to buy stocks in the middle of a market cave-in. That is how you lose your job. The current rally is not driven by new investors rushing in to snap up bargains. The SEC and UK financial regulators have both banned short selling of financial shares, forcing shorts to cover their open positions ”” causing a huge upward spike in financial stocks like Morgan Stanley [MS] and Goldman Sachs [GS].
> 
> We are undergoing another bear market rally. I often equate these to a drowning man's relief at finding a life-raft ”” before the realization dawns on him that he is still lost in the middle of the Pacific ocean without food or water.


----------



## jaithomson (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Exactly... Bear it is..!


----------



## Whiskers (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Hey whiskers I'm hopping you have some of your usually after the fact analysis on oil vs Equity markets.
> 
> A couple of weeks ago you main theme was high oil was killing the markets. Last night oil jumped 5% but equity markets around the world had their biggest jump in 20 odd years.  Surely if oil high oil is the driver of the markets woes, like you were stating a little while ago, I wouldn't be looking at a screen of *green.*






Ferret said:


> *You didn't notice there was a little bit more news out there last night than just the oil price*?




Ditto.



nomore4s said:


> lol, some problems still exist?
> 
> How has anything changed? What problems did they actually fix?
> Nothing, just applied more bandaid fixes to make it look like they are doing something.
> ...






Julia said:


> It seems too obvious to even be worth the comment, but if all this debt just gets absorbed by the taxpayer (which is what seems to be being proposed) what's to say the people who caused this mess won't just go and do it all again?   Given the parlous state of the US economy, they're hardly likely to raise interest rates, so isn't that environment ripe for a repeat performance in the knowledge that whatever debacle you oversee, Uncle Sam will just put it right for you?
> Maybe I'm not correctly understanding the whole situation, and am happy to be corrected.
> 
> Meantime, here is Colin Twiggs' view of the recent bounce:




Good to see you in this thread Julia.

The first thing I would say about Twiggs view is that it is fairly heavily based on his 'Twiggs Money Flow' chart. Money flow is OK, but when the playing field is a bit corrupted and the rules get changed through the game, money flow may be more a measure of manipulation and panic than 'normal' market dynamics.

Also in regard to nomore4s question, the main thing that has changed is that this situation will not repeat, because of the regulatory changes made and coming regarding levels of leverage, preditory selling, market regulation and disclosure etc. 

There are also numerous court cases in progress that will inevitably set precedents where people thought the law didn't apply and others that will cause new laws to be enacted.

As to what has actually been fixed... hard to know for sure, if anything... but the point I keep making is the market is more psycholigical than financial... ie to keep your 'moral' analysis seperate from your objective assessement of what is likely to happen if you want to be on the right side of the market in a timely fashion.

One thing that all this intervention has done is cut any market manipulation off at the knees, at least for now. Some argue that the governments are manipulating the market. No doubt about that, but you'd have to be a fool to abuse the system, abuse the gov and then kick sand in their face as some operators are alleged to be doing, cos simply the gov is the umpire and I haven't heard any political party outright condeming this action. So, it surely is suicide to go against the umpire and agrivate him/her on the playing field.

No doubt the rational of the intervention is to allow the mess to unwind more slowly and orderly, rather than just letting it crash into a mangled mess where there is no guarantee that Ma and Pa investers won't get hurt anyway, such as by banks facing mass depositor withdrawls and closing shop... after the chief execs have already fled with their fat pay packets and sold their shares.

From a moral perspective, I would think there is a better chance of coming to a softer landing with less damage to the general public and better chance of scrutinizing the market and the key players than letting the market go on unchecked.

The bottom line is, what's to stop the imoral, corrupt and market manipulators from further exploiting the system to further feather their own nest at the expense of the general public if it was just left to go on unchecked.


----------



## Kauri (20 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well what do you know....  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## wayneL (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> One thing that all this intervention has done is cut any market manipulation off at the knees, at least for now. Some argue that the governments are manipulating the market. No doubt about that, but you'd have to be a fool to abuse the system, abuse the gov and then kick sand in their face as some operators are alleged to be doing, cos simply the gov is the umpire and I haven't heard any political party outright condeming this action. So, it surely is suicide to go against the umpire and agrivate him/her on the playing field.
> 
> No doubt the rational of the intervention is to allow the mess to unwind more slowly and orderly, rather than just letting it crash into a mangled mess where there is no guarantee that Ma and Pa investers won't get hurt anyway, such as by banks facing mass depositor withdrawls and closing shop... after the chief execs have already fled with their fat pay packets and sold their shares.
> 
> ...


----------



## tech/a (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> lol, I hope you don't have that short still open jaithomson because I doubt very much that Monday will be in the red and I woud be surprised if Tuesday is a down day.




It appears that the majority now posting on this thread are doing little in analysis and plenty in emotion.

I agree that very soon the market will slow dramatically and turn lower again.

If people really think that bankrupt governments throwing money at a bankrupt monetary system,is going to secure you a longterm bull market---then your from URANUS.

Unfortunately this thread has become an "Hotcopper" fiasco.
Like others before me I'll leave you all to it.


----------



## MrBurns (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The US SAYS it will do this and that but lets see what they actually come up with, words are easy the reality will be almost impossible to do with any effect other than smoke and mirrors.

The market will realise this and go into reverse once again but there will be a lot of money made in the very short term, but not by me , that sort of risk level isn't for me.


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Ditto.




Thanks. so you agree it was about credit markets not oil. Good we finally agree and you have finally admitted that your opinion was wong.


----------



## dhukka (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I agree that very soon the market will slow dramatically and turn lower again.
> 
> If people really think that bankrupt governments throwing money at a bankrupt monetary system,is going to secure you a longterm bull market---then your from URANUS.





Indeed. It is almost surreal to watch the media report what is going on. Paulson and Bernanke are being portrayed as the saviours of the world. Rewind around 12 months ago and their position was that - the US financial system is fundamentally sound (that is actually still their view), that losses for financial companies would be limited to around *$100* billion, that problems in the housing market would be contained to a small area called subprime, and that it would not have spillover effects to the broader economy. 

Now we have over *$500* billion in losses for financial companies, a bill now in motion to use $700 billion to buy bad assets from banks, *$85 *billion for AIG, a guarantee from the fed of *$30*billion for Bear Stearns nasty liabilities and a couple of hundred billion to back Freddie and Fannie. 

So these guys that had no idea what was happening are now going to save the day, with one of their first masterstrokes to intiate a witch-hunt on short sellers. 

This could be the mother of all bear market rallies, but like all that have come before in this bear market, it is destined to fail and the market will ultimately proceed to new lows once reality resasserts itself IMO.


----------



## jet328 (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> It appears that the majority now posting on this thread are doing little in analysis and plenty in emotion.
> 
> I agree that very soon the market will slow dramatically and turn lower again.
> 
> If people really think that bankrupt governments throwing money at a bankrupt monetary system,is going to secure you a longterm bull market---then your from URANUS.




Completely agree tech

Just look at what US analysts are forecasting
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS
They are predicting operating earnings to GROW 50% in the next 12 months! 50%! There is just no way this is possible in the next 12 months.
Currently they are trading on a PE of ~ 20 & this is meant to be the bottom. Where is the fear or panic? When has a bear market ended & a bull market started ever on a PE of 20?

Analysts are usually late to the party & I don't think this time will be any different.


----------



## Porper (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Thanks. so you agree it was about credit markets not oil. Good we finally agree and you have finally admitted that your opinion was wong.




You have to be joking T.H.Some never admit they are wrong.

Always an answer and excuse.

I agree with Tech/A not much XAO analysis going on.Be back in a few weeks to see where  we are heading.


----------



## IFocus (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> If people really think that bankrupt governments throwing money at a bankrupt monetary system,is going to secure you a longterm bull market---then your from URANUS.




Is that anything like a black hole


----------



## bankit (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> I agree with Tech/A not much XAO analysis going on.




I have to agree with both of you on lack of Analysis. I would post more but it seems there are a couple of members who just insist on point scoring against other members. It is obviously an ego thing and it does destroy threads because the genuine posters stop posting because of the childish attitude or is it called "Cyber bashing"

If someone wants to start up a new thread on the XAO then I will post more.

I feel there are some very competent members out there, so lets try again.


----------



## theasxgorilla (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> *This could be the mother of all bear market rallies*, but like all that have come before in this bear market, it is destined to fail and the market will ultimately proceed to new lows once reality resasserts itself IMO.




You mean like the last one from '02 to '07 which interrupted the last financial Armageddon?

XAO analysis, based on US market activity late last week, XAO up on Monday, 5000 points forming resistance.


----------



## CamKawa (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well my XAO analysis is that it may skyrocket on Monday. All forms of short selling on all stocks have been banned from the ASX effective Monday.

Source: http://www.asic.gov.au/ASIC/asic.nsf/byHeadline/08-205%20Covered%20short%20selling%20not%20permitted?opendocument


----------



## MS+Tradesim (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> Well my XAO analysis is that it may skyrocket on Monday. All forms of short selling on all stocks have been banned from the ASX effective Monday.
> 
> Source: http://www.asic.gov.au/ASIC/asic.nsf/byHeadline/08-205%20Covered%20short%20selling%20not%20permitted?opendocument





So I read that including the instrument doc at the bottom of the page. It doesn't make it clear if people with open shorts are required to close them. It seems to just indicate that no new shorts are allowed - with a few restricted exceptions.


----------



## white_goodman (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> So I read that including the instrument doc at the bottom of the page. It doesn't make it clear if people with open shorts are required to close them. It seems to just indicate that no new shorts are allowed - with a few restricted exceptions.




if youve got an open short your pretty much rooted so you will probably close it anyways


----------



## Whiskers (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> The $1T is just the debt and yes, the US taxpayer is buying the debt ridden assets in some hope of selling them again in some magical future time probably in the Twiight Zone.




From an Aus, and I suppose most countries perspective, isn't it better to contain all this dubious debt on the US balance sheet where it came from, rather than continuing to let it spew out all over the world?



> While people starve in the ghettos the pricks who caused this have their debt taken off their hands thanks to the taxpayer.




I think there is some element of truth there, but you have to remember there is also a huge amount of litigation pending in the US so we just don't know yet who will get away with what.



wayneL said:


>






If you could eloberate a bit wayne, I'll see if I can help you. 



Trembling Hand said:


> Thanks. so you agree it was about credit markets not oil. Good we finally agree and you have finally admitted that your opinion was wong.




As I have said often TH, you need to be able to get some context and proportion.

My analysis was that the oil bubble was about to burst, which it did and the trend will continue to fall down to around 80, maybe a bit lower.

You should know that market trends don't go in a straight line. There are always a serious of up's and down's with bigger up's in a bull market and bigger downs in a bear market. 

Really TH a $5 or so move in oil recently is hardly here nor there, but you will recall me saying that it may fall below 100 for awhile before correcting higher over 100 for awhile before continuing to fall again.

The context of the oil  trend continuing to fall is that world wide (hyper)inflation goes off the radar and the economy improves proportionally.

In the context of the Aus market, high oil was starting to really hurt our economy, particularly our significant export mining and agricultural industries.

The oil trend won't change significantly because of the other foreseeable news that came in recent days. 



IFocus said:


> Is that anything like a black hole




Lol... thats funny, IFocus... not that I totally agree with your or tech/a's view, but I'll pay a bit of good humour where it's due.


----------



## tech/a (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Lol... thats funny, IFocus... not that I totally agree with your or tech/a's view, but I'll pay a bit of good humour where it's due.





Thank God for that!!


----------



## dhukka (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> You mean like the last one from '02 to '07 which interrupted the last financial Armageddon?
> 
> XAO analysis, based on US market activity late last week, XAO up on Monday, 5000 points forming resistance.




I don't remember any financial armageddon in 02. Can't recall the US treasury backing $1 trillion worth of mortgage assets....ever. 

btw weren't you the guy who didn't even think we'd entered a bear market as late as early January?


----------



## chops_a_must (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> btw weren't you the guy who didn't even think we'd entered a bear market as late as early January?



Along with motorway it was meant to be a giant trading range.


----------



## tech/a (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Along with motorway it was meant to be a giant trading range.





Over the longterm thats what it will be.
I dont think we will see 6880 taken out for many years--5-7.
Dont know where the bottom will be but 4100 to 4300 is the next stop--from my analysis.


----------



## chops_a_must (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Over the longterm thats what it will be.
> I dont think we will see 6880 taken out for many years--5-7.
> Dont know where the bottom will be but 4100 to 4300 is the next stop--from my analysis.



From memory, 4300 was the next level down after 4700, and 3700-3800 after that, on my charts.


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey isn't this going to be funny. The rally will be because shorts are no longer able to "manipulate" the market with their 1% of market cap. And the punters will still be saying that this volume was the shorts covering


----------



## tech/a (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO as of tonight Weekly Chart.


----------



## Sunder (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Does anyone know how this affects holding negative CFDs?

Since it's a derivative, I presume it's exempt from the short selling ban?


----------



## theasxgorilla (21 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> I don't remember any financial armageddon in 02. Can't recall the US treasury backing $1 trillion worth of mortgage assets....ever.




Touche dhukka.  For about the last 20 years experts have been predicting that with every downturn this one would be the big one.  We'll find out eventually if it really is different this time.

Absolute numbers mean little BTW...you know how it is, inflation and all.



dhukka said:


> btw weren't you the guy who didn't even think we'd entered a bear market as late as early January?




If I went back and looked at that chart I'd come to the same _technical_ conclusion.  If you want to say "I told you so", you can have that call, it hasn't helped your portfolio.


----------



## dhukka (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Touche dhukka.  For about the last 20 years experts have been predicting that with every downturn this one would be the big one.  We'll find out eventually if it really is different this time.
> 
> Absolute numbers mean little BTW...you know how it is, inflation and all.




Have they? Good for them, not sure what the relevance of this statement is. Anyway to date, this bear market has already equaled the biggest in terms of peak to trough declines in the last 20 years. It's always at least a little different isn't it? As you said we'll find out in due course exactly how different.  




theasxgorilla said:


> If I went back and looked at that chart I'd come to the same _technical_ conclusion.  If you want to say "I told you so", you can have that call, it hasn't helped your portfolio.




Then maybe it's time to stop looking at charts? My aim is to outperform the market over the full cycle. My measley portfolio is down less than half the current market decline. I'm happy with that result.


----------



## theasxgorilla (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Have they? Good for them, not sure what the relevance of this statement is. Anyway to date, this bear market has already equaled the biggest in terms of peak to trough declines in the last 20 years. It's always at least a little different isn't it? As you said we'll find out in due course exactly how different.




You said it may soon be the mother of all bear market rallies.  I was being facetious by suggesting that '02 to '07 was in fact a bear market rally.  I don't see it as being beyond the realm of possibility that we see something similar engineered, which ultimately patches things up well enough to convince people to start going long _something_ again.




dhukka said:


> *Then maybe it's time to stop looking at charts? *My aim is to outperform the market over the full cycle. My measley portfolio is down less than half the current market decline. I'm happy with that result.




To what end?  I went to cash in June/July '07, based on chart analysis.  There is more than one way to skin the same cat, you know that.


----------



## Whiskers (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> There is more than one way to skin the same cat,




:22_yikes: 

Sufferin Succotash... ain't nobody gonna be skinnin this little black cat! 

:run:


----------



## Kauri (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm sometimes tempted to join in on all this pontificating and posturing... but luckily find that I am too busy trading...   
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## CamKawa (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> I'm sometimes tempted to join in on all this pontificating and posturing... but luckily find that I am too busy trading...
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri



So what's your plan of attack today Kauri? Will you covering shorts and loading up on longs?


----------



## Kauri (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> So what's your plan of attack today Kauri? Will you covering shorts and loading up on longs?





   while everyone was debating the correctness/validity of thier predictions I actually slipped in a small post stating my plan of trading last thursday... before the rally..    butt in the midst of all the chest thumping it passed unnoticed... oh well... another day, another dollar...

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## dhukka (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> You said it may soon be the mother of all bear market rallies.  I was being facetious by suggesting that '02 to '07 was in fact a bear market rally.  I don't see it as being beyond the realm of possibility that we see something similar engineered, which ultimately patches things up well enough to convince people to start going long _something_ again.




Actually I agree it's a possibility, just not the most likely one. However I don't rule anything out. Putting more cash into the market does not depend on it reaching a particular level. If individual company fundamentals warrant it, then I will be putting some to work.


----------



## nunthewiser (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> while everyone was debating the correctness/validity of thier predictions I actually slipped in a small post stating my plan of trading last thursday... before the rally..    butt in the midst of all the chest thumping it passed unnoticed... oh well... another day, another dollar...
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




nice chest thump!


----------



## marcadrian (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kauri,

Are you planning to do the same with banks today?

marcadrian


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I reckon a short of the mornings highs will be in order. 

Just for a play here is the the time......11:43...


----------



## marcadrian (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I reckon a short of the mornings highs will be in order.
> 
> Just for a play here is the the time......11:43...




TH I am still learning this game... bear with me.

Am I right in guessing that what you are saying here is that we will see a spike until 11.43am at which point it will all come crashing down and you would want to have shorted those previously high positions for a nice sweep? With this ban on short selling, are people still shorting via CFDs? Do they have to be MM CFDs?

I understand what will drive the spike initially (even I am itching to get in) but what event/psychology will pull it back down?

Please correct me if I misread.

Cheers
marcadrian


----------



## Kauri (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I reckon a short of the mornings highs will be in order.
> 
> Just for a play here is the the time......11:43...




The good hole USofA agrees with you it seems...  
Cheers
...........Kauri

 US equity futures are lower in early Asia and traders say this has led to AUD/USD selling after the pairing jumped to 0.8403 in early trading. US equity futures are lower in early Asia and traders say this has led to AUD/USD selling after the pairing jumped to 0.8403 in early trading.


----------



## MrBurns (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think I must be a bit slow but it just occurred to me that this just might be designed to get the Democrats across the line in October .....so after the election the party will be over ?


----------



## Kauri (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



marcadrian said:


> Kauri,
> 
> Are you planning to do the same with banks today?
> 
> marcadrian




   I'm planning to manage my open trades... won't be adding... needs confirmation of the bailing plan now.. initial euphoria will fade untill then .. I thunk..

there is bi-partisan support emerging among US lawmakers to give quick approval to the US Treasury 700 BLN USD proposal to bail out US financial institutions. According to the NY Times, Democratic lawmakers said Sunday that they shared the sense of urgency, though they called for "reciprocity" to ensure that not only Wall Street investors but also Main Street taxpayers would get relief. And they said they wanted to press ahead, probably in a parallel initiative, with a new economic stimulus package. Senator Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, said legislators would not imperil the proposal by adding too many extras. "We will not Christmas-tree this bill. The times are too urgent."
*US equity futures are sharply lower, as investors might be a bit disappointed that the proposal is still being debated and nervous that some of the details of the Treasury plan might be tinkered with*

Cheers
...............Kauri


----------



## Kauri (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> nice chest thump!





and an even better trade... beats the heck out of point scoring... for me anyways..    

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I will be playing with the index Futures.

My call is just a game. Just to fill in time and give the impression that I'm on this thread to analyses the XAO when my real intent it to lurk until I can flame someone. So not advice on a trade set up...DYOR etc.

With that out of the way my thinking is after huge days we often get inside days. Especially in the states. They had a huge day on Friday so the odds are for an inside day for them tonight.

As our open looks to be a gap up of around 100 points there will be a lot of froth and bubble as the trapped shorts cover and the desperate open new longs. But my thinking is with close to 500 points up by then in 3 days most of the flippers will move in and start dumping into this strength.

These are all just intraday thoughts. No crash on my radar just oscillations. In any case the medium tern trend has changed and the previous broken range has been recaptured.


----------



## BentRod (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> nice chest thump!




Your allowed to thump if you post a few realtime :


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

WHAT A JOKE!!!!!


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is just to funny :homer:  :bananasmi


----------



## finnsk (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Has the market been delayed today???


----------



## Green08 (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thinking the same thing.  All stock i look at as of  As at 22/09/2008 9:56:05 AM in in 
ENQUIRE
What does that mean?


----------



## Real1ty (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



finnsk said:


> Has the market been delayed today???




It opens at 10.30am, not sure why yet.


----------



## CAB SAV (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I feel like a spare root at a wedding.


----------



## wayneL (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

They're considering my "ban buying" proposal.


----------



## mayk (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think some servers might have crashed ( as my etrade has also frozen up!!). Might be the amount of load is unprecedented..


----------



## deadset (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was wondering what is going on, it simply says "No trades were found as at 10:07 AM ..."

I was starting to think we were in Russia or maybe there was a ban on buying.

No sweat, take a breather.


----------



## Real1ty (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> So I read that including the instrument doc at the bottom of the page. It doesn't make it clear if people with open shorts are required to close them. It seems to just indicate that no new shorts are allowed - with a few restricted exceptions.






> 22 Sep 2008 at 00:06:34 (GMT)
> *IMPORTANT NOTIFICATION: Australia - ban short selling for 30 days. We refer to ASIC's decision on 21 September 2008 to ban all short selling of Australian listed securities. This means all ASX CFDs on the platform have been disabled for shorting until further notice. *Existing shorts will be allowed to stay open for now*. The ASX 200 index tracker will trade as usual.




"stay open for now"

How long is "for now"....lol


----------



## Prospector (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Even NAB didnt know about it until this morning.  I am having pc troubles and thought it was me so I rang tech support!


----------



## GreatPig (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

NAB shows all quotes as "closed". They were "pre-open" up till 10:00 though.

GP


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> They're considering my "ban buying" proposal.




LOL


----------



## white_goodman (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> NAB shows all quotes as "closed". They were "pre-open" up till 10:00 though.
> 
> GP




there was a terrorist attack at 20 bridge street....

ahh probably not j/k..


----------



## white_goodman (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I reckon a short of the mornings highs will be in order.
> 
> Just for a play here is the the time......11:43...




better delay that time by 30mins


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is what the punters wanted. No one losing money. All is good in fairyland


----------



## Green08 (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Many people trader or not must be glued to their computer screen.  Can we start breakfast with red wine?


----------



## prawn_86 (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sure is strange times.

In 50 years time when everything is gov owned once again i'll be able to say to the grandkids "I was around when capitalism was in its prime, and then fell in a heap. Lucky we now have our steadily re-adjusted gov issue portfolios"...


----------



## awg (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Prospector said:


> .  I am having pc troubles and thought it was me so I rang tech support!





i am having repeated connection difficulties too...it is immediately fixed when i run network diagnostics...could be a big nuisance if i trade near open, not sure if this is due to high server traffic or what


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Who is wanting to place some bets on the ASX not even opening at 10:30??


----------



## BentRod (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You taking em?:


----------



## M34N (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I didn't even know they could delay the market like that without any formal notice? I only just read it on the Age!

well here we go everyone!


----------



## hsv2001 (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't believe they would just be able to open the market at 10:30am now without an announcement to why the delay is there, this could cost people money, unless they start the pre-open stage again. But even on the ASX website their is no information and the ASX status is CLOSED at 10:32am Sydney Time.


----------



## M34N (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

E*trade showing time as 22 Sep 2008, 10:33 AM, still no trading...

is this a joke???


----------



## Green08 (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm still not open at 10.33am.  Anyone else with a problem?  Is there a new start time?


----------



## STYLSH (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Who is wanting to place some bets on the ASX not even opening at 10:30??




You win!


----------



## MrBurns (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This will just be some crap about banning shorting then the market will soar until they realise nothings changed and the bailout is engineered by Bush who cant even find a bearded tinted person with the entire US army at his disoposal.


----------



## CamKawa (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"Trading on the Australian Stock Exchange has been delayed 30 minutes this morning, pending an announcement from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission."

What are they going to say now?

Market open delayed


----------



## Real1ty (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dealer Broadcast
22 Sep 2008 at 00:34:38 (GMT)
The ASX market opening has been delayed beyond the 10:30 start.


----------



## deadset (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How come when the markets rose high in the US on Friday, I had a feeling that it wouldn't translate.

Does anyone know what's going on ?  Any announcements anything ?

Might head down to Star City instead.


----------



## Prospector (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Pre open with 10.40 announcement.  Hmm, couldnt they have worked this out over the weekend?


----------



## M34N (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Who is wanting to place some bets on the ASX not even opening at 10:30??




What's scary is, I'm not even sure if this is intended as a joke or not, and what's even WORSE than that, is it actually did happen!

Unbelievable, now I've seen everything!


----------



## Green08 (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Joe's forum might just break the record

Most users ever online was 767, 22nd-June-2007 at 02:18 PM.


----------



## mayk (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well now when the market will start it will cause panic, so long for a green day. Also ASX ( or in my case IB) is not acknowledging my stock order. Well a classic case of Murphy's Law ..


----------



## Green08 (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Prospector said:


> Pre open with 10.40 announcement.  Hmm, couldnt they have worked this out over the weekend?




That came and went next bet


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> What's scary is, I'm not even sure if this is intended as a joke or not, and what's even WORSE than that, is it actually did happen!
> 
> Unbelievable, now I've seen everything!




No it wasn't a joke. I would of given 10 to 1 odds for it not opening. 

Anyway futs open at 10:50. ASX open at 11:00. So they say? third time lucky??


----------



## CamKawa (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You'd reckon ASIC could put something on their web site about this? Nooooo.
http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.ns...leases+and+advisories?openDocument#advisories


----------



## deadset (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Do not press the red button.


----------



## white_goodman (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mayk said:


> Well now when the market will start it will cause panic, so long for a green day. Also ASX ( or in my case IB) is not acknowledging my stock order. Well a classic case of Murphy's Law ..




that, along with US futures might make it a red day (can we still short with CFD's?)


----------



## prawn_86 (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Perhaps ASF should band together and try and sue ASIC or the ASX for 'lost income' and 'hardship'

Take all the gun traders here average daily earnings and say that this 1 hr lost cost $X amount equates to a total of X dollars, plus compo for hardship 

Who's up for it?


----------



## CamKawa (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ASIC ban short selling and just look at the market stability... LOL


----------



## white_goodman (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> ASIC ban short selling and just look at the market stability... LOL




this is the new way to stop global recessions....no markets... if theres no trading the stocks cant go down


----------



## CamKawa (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> this is the new way to stop global recessions....no markets... if theres no trading the stocks cant go down



Maybe ASIC will come out and say every time the DOW futures turn red they will shut the market...  Oh, but only for just a 30 day trial.


----------



## Struzball (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> ASIC ban short selling and just look at the market stability... LOL




I thought a ban on short selling would reduce volumes in times of downturns, but this is REDICULOUS


----------



## TheAbyss (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> this is the new way to stop global recessions....no markets... if theres no trading the stocks cant go down




Yep, ASIC got their lead from the Russians who tried it last week for 48 hours to stave off total market failure and opened after the US solution was announced. Quite fortunate for them really wasn't it as they couldn't have closed the doors for much longer could they? Although anything is possible isn't it?


----------



## marcadrian (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just got sent this from a friend... perhaps it is wise advice?

If you had purchased $1,000 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00. With Enron, you would have $16.50 left of the original $1,000.
With WorldCom, you would have less than $5 left. If you had purchased $1,000 of Delta Air Lines stock you would have $49 left. If you had purchased United Airlines, you would have nothing left.

But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the cans for aluminium recycling, you would have $214.

Based on the above, the best current investment strategy is to drink heavily, and recycle.


----------



## nomore4s (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I reckon a short of the mornings highs will be in order.
> 
> Just for a play here is the the time......11:43...




I think you might be right TH, it looks like we'll get a buying frenzy when the market does finally open, but then I think we'll see a fair bit of selling especially if people not being able to hedge plays true.

Dow futures are also down over 100 atm (long way till open though)


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Still not all is well. She seems to be stuck at N's

only have a market LOL


----------



## dubiousinfo (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like the Warrant MM's for Macquarie dont want to play with us today. LOL


----------



## white_goodman (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

geez look mat em sell out, wish i could short


----------



## Green08 (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

When it opened BNB shot up 114% $1.80 now it has dropped quickly to $1.29 and there is no shorting


----------



## white_goodman (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Green08 said:


> When it opened BNB shot up 114% $1.80 now it has dropped quickly to $1.29 and there is no shorting




liquidating entire portfolios it seems


----------



## GreatPig (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ABN Amro still have quotes on their Mini shorts - and some trades just went through on one I was looking at.

GP


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have to say I am enjoying todays action. I mean you will have to laugh if we end the day negative. Just like what the rest of Asia is looking at currently.


----------



## Struzball (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I have to say I am enjoying todays action. I mean you will have to laugh if we end the day negative. Just like what the rest of Asia is looking at currently.




Once people realise that in 30 days time people will short the hell out of everything I'm sure it'll drop back to normal..  (whatever normal is)


----------



## Green08 (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

TH, do you think Americans will see through the smoke and mirrors of the fed and gov to retrace or they will believe its good (getting lumped with god knows how much debt) and go positive.


----------



## MrBurns (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Green08 said:


> TH, do you think Americans will see through the smoke and mirrors of the fed and gov to retrace or they will believe its good (getting lumped with god knows how much debt) and go positive.




This might help - 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12498


----------



## Green08 (22 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Mr Burns - I'm so glad you are reading my link as are others. I fairly sobering lot of wriitngs I just hope more people wake up.


----------



## M34N (23 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Was interesting to see the US dollar getting dumped again last night, but the Dow up 350 points, it's pretty obvious this is just short covering. Think about this; gold was up $90 or around 11% for the week, while the Dow finished down 40 points or about 0.3%. So instead of people shorting all these stocks, where will the money go?
> 
> Personally, I reckon we may see more money pumped into commodities because of the falling dollar and this ban on shorting stocks, thus putting more pressure longer-term on the market with higher costs and higher interest rates eventually. Stagflation anyone?




Oil +15%
Gold +4%
Silver +7%
Copper +3%
US$ Index -2%
DJIA -3%

Didn't take long did it? So obviously now the evil short sellers are moving into commodities, but note that the US banks dropped over 10%, with financials down 7%, both the worst performing sectors. So now who do we blame?


----------



## tech/a (23 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> So now who do we blame?




The US Government for the gross mismanagement of the worlds largest economy.

So another fun day ahead.


----------



## Sunder (23 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> The US Government for the gross mismanagement of the worlds largest economy.
> 
> So another fun day ahead.




My feel (easy to say after open) is that this is just a "breather", unless Congress stops the bailout. I think we're due for a bit of a sucker rally soon.* 

*opinion only - I'm holding longs.


----------



## MrBurns (23 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

IMHO - It's only a matter of days before all this comes unstuck, the whole idea is flawed. In the end market forces will dictate what happens on the way down just the way it did on the way up.

It's sheer desperation that people have pushed the index up based on the hope that George Bush can fix the worst financial crises in the history of the free world.

As soon as the penny drops, and that won't be very long, we will see the real consequences of all this.


----------



## Sunder (23 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> IMHO - It's only a matter of days before all this comes unstuck, the whole idea is flawed.




I agree with the assessment, but disagree with your time frame. Markets can be irrationally exuberant for a very long time when it comes to money.


----------



## Struzball (23 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> It's sheer desperation that people have pushed the index up based on the hope that George Bush can fix the worst financial crises in the history of the free world.




I'm not sure I'd trust GWB to invest $100 of my money wisely let alone $1T.  GWB should have checked in the beginners lounge on these forums initially.

GWB: Hey guys, I saved up a trillion dollars and thinking about where to start in this trading thing anyone got any advice/books to read?  I'm thinking fundamental analisis but keen to learn about techincal analysis.

Paper trade first
You're not ready for trading, you should invest first
TRY CFD'S!!
No way CFD's are too risky.
Put it in a savings account and sit it out..

etc..


----------



## dhukka (23 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Struzball said:


> GWB: Hey guys, I saved up a trillion dollars and thinking about where to start in this trading thing anyone got any advice/books to read?  I'm thinking fundamental analisis but keen to learn about techincal analysis.




Allow me to make a slight modification: 

GWB: Hey guys, I *got a margin loan for* a trillion dollars and thinking about where to start in this trading thing anyone got any advice/books to read?  I'm thinking fundamental analisis but keen to learn about techincal analysis.


----------



## professor_frink (23 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Allow me to make a slight modification:
> 
> GWB: Hey guys, I *got a margin loan for* a trillion dollars and thinking about where to start in this trading thing anyone got any advice/books to read?  I'm thinking fundamental analisis but keen to learn about techincal analysis.




So thats the problem, he's been taught Elliot wave by Whiskers. No wonder the world is in such a mess!

So should the solution be to ban technical analysis? Or ban Whiskers


----------



## Awesomandy (23 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> So should the solution be to ban technical analysis? Or ban Whiskers




Just ban all Elliot waves that point to a down trend, and at the same time, ban all sales of stocks below the last traded price. That will fix it.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (23 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Speaking of EW, For those who are interested, the XAO is at a very interesting juncture. Since Nov 07, it has traced out x2 impulse (5 waves) waves separated by (a)-(b)-(c) correction that started in mid-march. Hence the overall move downwards from Nov 07 could be considered completed if it's viewed as a large correction. However, if the current Sep lows are broken (labeled as b), then wave iii of (iii) will be underway (down) and will be very aggressive indeed as almost all wave 3s are. The current Wave ii correction up appears to be tracing out an expanded flat (not unusual in wave 2 positions) that should complete the c portion of wave ii with 5 small waves up to fib resistance levels.


----------



## korrupt_1 (23 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Speaking of EW, For those who are interested, the XAO is at a very interesting juncture. Since Nov 07, it has traced out x2 impulse (5 waves) waves separated by (a)-(b)-(c) correction that started in mid-march. Hence the overall move downwards from Nov 07 could be considered completed if it's viewed as a large correction. However, if the current Sep lows are broken (labeled as b), then wave iii of (iii) will be underway (down) and will be very aggressive indeed as almost all wave 3s are. The current Wave ii correction up appears to be tracing out an expanded flat (not unusual in wave 2 positions) that should complete the c portion of wave ii with 5 small waves up to fib resistance levels.




Can you throw up a chart? picture is a thousand words


----------



## OzWaveGuy (23 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Must of missed the upload before...


----------



## Whiskers (23 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> So thats the problem, he's been taught Elliot wave by Whiskers. No wonder the world is in such a mess!
> 
> So should the solution be to ban technical analysis? Or ban Whiskers






Awesomandy said:


> Just ban all Elliot waves that point to a down trend, and at the same time, ban all sales of stocks below the last traded price. That will fix it.




No no no no... you guys need me to keep yer all alert to the market going north. It is going north yer know. Just look at that pothole... it's just about patched over. :



OzWaveGuy said:


> Speaking of EW, For those who are interested, the XAO is at a very interesting juncture. Since Nov 07, it has traced out x2 impulse (5 waves) waves separated by (a)-(b)-(c) correction that started in mid-march. Hence the overall move downwards from Nov 07 could be considered completed if it's viewed as a large correction. However, if the current Sep lows are broken (labeled as b), then wave iii of (iii) will be underway (down) and will be very aggressive indeed as almost all wave 3s are. The current Wave ii correction up appears to be tracing out an expanded flat (not unusual in wave 2 positions) that should complete the c portion of wave ii with 5 small waves up to fib resistance levels.




Well hello, OzWaveGuy.

I've claimed an 'L' plate in EW, and as you may have guessed, am having a wee bit of trouble getting someone to pass me on a 'P' plate. 

But the good news is my count looks a lot like yours, particularly to the Flat ABC currently playing out.

Tell me though... why do you have your target at 5500? 

Isn't the range for a flat ABC a bit wider?

Why do you think it's a wave two rather than a new wave one?

I'll put a best case scenerio... assuming todays low was ii, wave iii could take out 5700 and the max is well in play. Oh man, you watch me cop it now. The bludy bears are many and fierce around here.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Whiskers, It looks as though you have the drop from Nov 07 as a large A-B-C correction (couldn't quite tell as the chart doesn't go back that far). If true, then your final wave C should have most likely ended at the Sep low - good news for the bulls and reflects my point that XAO is at an important juncture to prove this correction scenario correct. Falling below Sep lows will then indicate another 5 wave pattern is unfolding (down),which unfortunately is my preferred scenario at this stage (in addition, looking at resource sector indicates a complete 5 wave down pattern, so we're in a corrective phase) The 5500ish target shows a bunch of Fibonacci resistance - an area that I'll be watching very closely


----------



## wayneL (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Hi Whiskers, It looks as though you have the drop from Nov 07 as a large A-B-C correction (couldn't quite tell as the chart doesn't go back that far). If true, then your final wave C should have most likely ended at the Sep low - good news for the bulls and reflects my point that XAO is at an important juncture to prove this correction scenario correct. Falling below Sep lows will then indicate another 5 wave pattern is unfolding (down),which unfortunately is my preferred scenario at this stage (in addition, looking at resource sector indicates a complete 5 wave down pattern, so we're in a corrective phase) The 5500ish target shows a bunch of Fibonacci resistance - an area that I'll be watching very closely




Hi wavepicker,

You really think we'll get to 5500?

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Waves.

Why the different handles?


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone thinking of a dump and run on the open may want to play a wait and see game.

Funny things are a happening in the FUTS. Apparently all is well in la la land.

Someone throwing some more money at the banks??

this is the Dow Futs,


----------



## CamKawa (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Someone throwing some more money at the banks??



Could it be this bloke?

Berkshire to invest at least $5 billion in Goldman


----------



## jersey10 (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone thinking of a dump and run on the open may want to play a wait and see game.
> 
> Funny things are a happening in the FUTS. Apparently all is well in la la land.
> 
> ...




Mr Buffett?


----------



## Whiskers (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm a bit curious about what people see as the tell tale signs for the Aus markets direction... apart from following the herd after the fact.

While the details of the lastest US economic rescue plan isn't clear yet, for me it was always gonna be the case that they would intervene to stop the rot. 

Also for me probably the main indicator for the Aus market recovering is the strengthening of the USD as an indication of the world community regaining some confidence to reinvest in the US due to the administrations intervention and also the falling cost of oil. 

I found it impossible to reconcile the sustainability of high oil prices given the future prospects of the US. Demand destruction was always going to happen and once it sets in people often change their habits to consume less and or switch to alternative energy sources.

Joining the bigger dots in inevetable domino sequence... maybe with a bit of ESP or somethin... with the US continuing to function relatively normaly after the dust of all the regulatory changes and rescue packages settles, it seems to me that all the FA still reconciles with TA for the Aus market to rebound well.


----------



## Porper (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Tell me though... why do you have your target at 5500?
> 
> Isn't the range for a flat ABC a bit wider?





Whiskers, there are 3 basic types of flat corrections.

Regular, running and expanded.

On your count it can't be a regular as wave B ends too far below wave A.

With a running flat wave C will end below the end of wave A, we are in the zone for that scenario now, although in terms of time it is too short.

So we are left with an expanded flat where wave C can end "substantially" above wave A.

However you are a bit optomistic with 6500.

There is confluence around 5450, max 5660.


----------



## Porper (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Waves.
> 
> Why the different handles?




Yes, if it is you Wavepicker why not post under your original nick.

I and others enjoyed your posts, whatever politics is going on behind the scenes is irrelevant to most of us I would imagine.


What's the story ?


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just an update on the runny rabbits. :flush:


----------



## korrupt_1 (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Just an update on the runny rabbits. :flush:




what goes up, must come down...


----------



## OzWaveGuy (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Yes, if it is you Wavepicker why not post under your original nick.
> 
> I and others enjoyed your posts, whatever politics is going on behind the scenes is irrelevant to most of us I would imagine.
> 
> ...




Sorry to disappoint  This is my first time in this forum - but love EW - it's never wrong - only the way one reads it


----------



## dhukka (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Yes, if it is you Wavepicker why not post under your original nick.
> 
> I and others enjoyed your posts, whatever politics is going on behind the scenes is irrelevant to most of us I would imagine.
> 
> ...




Well just hypothesizing here, but if you create a new identity (and noone knows about it), then you can't be linked to your previous one.  You can start with a clean slate and build up some kind of guru status for making a few approximately accurate calls. Problem is, when you start making some inaccurate calls and the crowd suddenly realizes you're not the chosen one, you have to create a new identity, and around we go again.


----------



## Frank D (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

_"first time in this forum - but love EW - *it's never wrong *- only the way one reads it" _


Oh my God.... i'm going to have fun ripping into you.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Well just hypothesizing here, but if you create a new identity (and noone knows about it), then you can't be linked to your previous one.  You can start with a clean slate and build up some kind of guru status for making a few approximately accurate calls. Problem is, when you start making some inaccurate calls and the crowd suddenly realizes you're not the chosen one, you have to create a new identity, and around we go again.




Got it all worked out - OzWaveGuyII


----------



## wayneL (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Frank D said:


> _"first time in this forum - but love EW - *it's never wrong in hindsight*" _
> 
> 
> Oh my God.... i'm going to have fun ripping into you.




I think that's what he meant to say Frank ^^^^^^^^


----------



## dhukka (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> Could it be this bloke?
> 
> Berkshire to invest at least $5 billion in Goldman




Buffet will be hoping it works out better than his foray into Salomon Brothers. He is definitely extracting his pound of flesh with *10%* preferreds callable with a 10% premium and warrants to boot.


----------



## prawn_86 (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Sorry to disappoint  This is my first time in this forum - but love EW - it's never wrong - only the way one reads it




Couldnt the same be said of ANY form of analysis? Its all right in theory, rarely in practice


----------



## OzWaveGuy (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prawn_86 said:


> Couldnt the same be said of ANY form of analysis? Its all right in theory, rarely in practice




It depends, EW has a set of very defined rules that need to obeyed that operate at all degrees in the market. I'm not certain, that other methods are so concise. In addition, EW pre-defined patterns (eg corrections) in the market give clues as to what may happen next (eg 4th wave triangle will be followed by 1 more push up (or down) followed by a correction back down (or up) to the triangle area). Having said that, I will still need to determine entry and exit points using technical analysis (eg trade setups), trading on the waves alone is very difficult unless clear patterns can be easily seen. www.elliottwave.com has some good library material on wave formation.


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> It depends, EW has a set of very defined rules that need to obeyed that operate at all degrees in the market. I'm not certain, that other methods are so concise.




Cannot see what is not precise about higher highs, higher lows etc.

I'm mean a 10 year old can pick a trend.


----------



## tech/a (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Frank/Wayne/Anyone else Ive missed with the same view.(Re Elliott.)

Having trouble with the way people see Elliott or any other analysis for that matter.

It will simply be proven correct or wont.
In Franks analysis his levels will either be proven correct or will be exceeded where then the next level or time frame comes into play.
Elliotts no different.
A count is a count given the information we have up to today.
If it is proven wrong then that count will alter given the information we have from price action.

All analysis can and does alter during the process of trading---Fundamental analysis certainly does!

You guys are like religious fanatics your religion is better than everyone elses when infact its has the same end point----to help read what the market is doing.


----------



## nunthewiser (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

amen


----------



## Frank D (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech,

The major difference between my model and methodology is, it uses 3 out
 of the 4 most critical components of technical analysis;-

*Support-Resistance, TIME and Price.*

It doesn’t use volume.

I already know where the most logical and robust areas of support 
and resistance reside.  I already know what and how I’m trading weeks 
in advance.

Elliot wave uses *1 component out of the 4:- price.*

And what’s even worse still, every wave count (high and low:- Price) 
is factored in after the event:- lagging  

I used Elliot wave in the 90’s before most even started trading or even
 looked at technical analysis, so I’m well versed in Elliot Wave and  all
 its failings.


----------



## rub92me (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sigh...I think maybe we should have a separate 'mine is bigger than yours' thread. Maybe we can post some pictures and youtubes too


----------



## prawn_86 (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rub92me said:


> Sigh...I think maybe we should have a separate 'mine is bigger than yours' thread. Maybe we can post some pictures and youtubes too




Yeh isnt there a seperate elliot wave thread for you guys to debate this on? Please use the appropriate threads not just the first you come across.


----------



## Whiskers (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Frank D said:


> I already know where the most logical and robust areas of support
> and resistance reside.  I already know what and how I’m trading *weeks
> in advance*.




Can you give us a chart summary for the XAO for the next few weeks.


----------



## wayneL (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Frank/Wayne/Anyone else Ive missed with the same view.(Re Elliott.)
> 
> Having trouble with the way people see Elliott or any other analysis for that matter.
> 
> ...



Ahahaha

Tech, you have the wrong end of the stick... again.

Your view here is not incongruent with mine.

And when have I ever said my goat's entrails are better than anyone else's... NEVER. We're all just tossing coins.


----------



## mayk (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

By the way what a way to welcome a new member....


Some analysis on the before and after passing of bill scenario will be greatly appreciated. My hunch is that we might have a down day Thursday and Friday, followed by a rally on Monday (on the back of bill enactment). 

I think the bailing plan is losing its momentum already, and even if it is passed, it will lose its luster.


----------



## white_goodman (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mayk said:


> By the way what a way to welcome a new member....
> 
> 
> Some analysis on the before and after passing of bill scenario will be greatly appreciated. My hunch is that we might have a down day Thursday and Friday, followed by a rally on Monday (on the back of bill enactment).
> ...




futures atm are up 130 odd points, shall prove interesting


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Can you give us a chart summary for the XAO for the next few weeks.




There's a year and a half of it here whiskers,

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6588


----------



## OzWaveGuy (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mayk said:


> By the way what a way to welcome a new member....
> 
> 
> Some analysis on the before and after passing of bill scenario will be greatly appreciated. My hunch is that we might have a down day Thursday and Friday, followed by a rally on Monday (on the back of bill enactment).
> ...




Thanks mayk. My short term view  is similar to what u describe. A push up on the XAO appears to be occuring (and will hopefully complete the expanded flat pattern I discussed previously), hence the "positive news" should carry the index up to sometime late next week or perhaps the week after before some "bad news" or "loss of confidence" kicks in.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Thanks mayk. My short term view  is similar to what u describe. A push up on the XAO appears to be occuring (and will hopefully complete the expanded flat pattern I discussed previously), hence the "positive news" should carry the index up to sometime late next week or perhaps the week after before some "bad news" or "loss of confidence" kicks in.



Hi Oz wave guy,

Could you post a chart so I can view that expanded flat pattern better?


----------



## OzWaveGuy (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Hi Oz wave guy,
> 
> Could you post a chart so I can view that expanded flat pattern better?




No problems. Larger Chart is here --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=339876&postcount=4599

Discussion --->https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=339845&postcount=4597

No real change except the final leg up 'c' completed a small wave (I) up and possibly wave (II) down (although I suspect one more small leg down needs to complete wave (II) as shown)


----------



## bankit (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> No problems. Larger Chart is here




I would go along with that projection as there is wave equality as well at 5500


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=24201&stc=1&d=1222240719


----------



## jaithomson (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

5500. Really..? Everyone has so many differnet opinions. Yesterday it was Bullish, today Bearish...

Australianstockreport.com.au wreckons we are due for 4800 in the next couple of days... who really knows i guess.


----------



## jaithomson (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Now they are saying we will hit 5150 tonite... Make up your dam mind..!


----------



## white_goodman (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> Now they are saying we will hit 5150 tonite... Make up your dam mind..!




well atleast thats good news for everyone, after all we are all long lol


----------



## korrupt_1 (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> 5
> Australianstockreport.com.au wreckons we are due for 4800 in the next couple of days... who really knows i guess.




omg, those clowns are pathetic... over priced for a rubbish report.



> Yesterday it was Bullish, today Bearish...




what do you expect? it's volatiles times. a 1000 point rally, then mirrored the next day doesn't happen during normal markets... 

anything goes... short term technical charts are useless... the long term chart is still heading south...


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> short term technical charts are useless...




This has been put by a few ASFers in various ways. I find it some what of a strange comment


----------



## jaithomson (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

those clowns are pathetic... over priced for a rubbish report.



Who would you recommend..?


----------



## skyQuake (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> This has been put by a few ASFers in various ways. I find it some what of a strange comment




yeah stop sitting there and making money. The charts dont work anymore you know


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> Who would you recommend..?



 Your own hard work. Can't beat it. EVER!!



skyQuake said:


> yeah stop sitting there and making money. The charts dont work anymore you know



 Yes, apparently not!!


----------



## barney (24 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> omg,
> anything goes... short term technical charts are useless... the long term chart is still heading south...





No disrespect intended here Korrupt, cause I am also learning to appreciate the different time frames of "investment", but from where I stand, the short term technical chart, particularly in the current state of the market, is the only chart that makes any sense at the moment .............. 

Its probably more about our individual concept of what determines a short, medium or long term chart ................. eg. For some, a 1 hour chart is short term ................ for others, a 1 minute chart is an eternity  .............. 

For me personally ..... I'm open to suggestion/advice, but, the longer the chart time, the wider the stop required, and in the current climate, the more risk involved ................. Just an observation ...... I could be totally wrong however ...... Cheers.


----------



## davo8 (25 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I'll put a best case scenerio... assuming todays low was ii, wave iii could take out 5700 and the max is well in play. Oh man, you watch me cop it now. The bludy bears are many and fierce around here.




I wouldn't want to disappoint...FA says you're wrong. The downturn in the US, Europe and Oz has yet to be fully priced -- the worst is yet to come. Too many bad things haven't happened yet. Banks going bust, hedge funds blowing up, bail-outs, the usual stuff.

You've called lots of bottoms, but this is not it, not yet. Another day, another bounce. October is still a good month for bad news. You'll see.
:grenade:


----------



## jaithomson (25 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Davo8 - I agree.


----------



## Sunder (25 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wow.

If there was ever an indecisive day, this is it. Traded up and down within a -1% range today a lot.


----------



## deadset (25 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

waiting for decisions in the US it seems.  how long can it wait ?  I would think anything beyond 2 weeks would put a bit of pressure on.


----------



## IFocus (25 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> 5500. Really..? Everyone has so many differnet opinions. Yesterday it was Bullish, today Bearish...
> 
> Australianstockreport.com.au wreckons we are due for 4800 in the next couple of days... who really knows i guess.




Yep that's what makes a market opposing opinions and its only ever some ones opinion no one really knows.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (25 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Today's market action, whilst down may be the start of a bigger push up as 5 small waves up (wave I) followed by a 3 wave correction down (wave II) seems to have been completed. Although there's every possibility that further downside action is possible considering the larger wave (II) has only corrected 23% of wave (I). Usually at least a 38%+ correction should be seen for 2nd waves, although 23% is usually considered a minimum - the next 1 or 2 trading days should provide more visibility on the short term wave structure. Today also marks the 3rd inside day on the XAO which may result breakout  - hopefully forming wave (III) up


----------



## korrupt_1 (25 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bets for US interest rate cuts are increasing so it could coincide with OZWaveGuy's opinion for a high push up from here... but ofcourse, once up, it'll get sold down again...


----------



## OzWaveGuy (25 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Bets for US interest rate cuts are increasing so it could coincide with OZWaveGuy's opinion for a high push up from here... but ofcourse, once up, it'll get sold down again...




Also, the S&P500 futures seems to be almost completed on a triple zig-zag correction from the sep 19th high, so a solid break out of resistance (possibly proceeding a false breakout) tonight could be on the cards.


----------



## Boggo (25 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have just been going through an Elliott Wave exercise which has got me plotting 5 waves on SLB to around October 2002.

The pattern is somewhat similiar to the current chart of the XAO (or do I need to have a night off  )


----------



## OzWaveGuy (26 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> I have just been going through an Elliott Wave exercise which has got me plotting 5 waves on SLB to around October 2002.
> 
> The pattern is somewhat similiar to the current chart of the XAO (or do I need to have a night off  )




Nope - it's all good! There is a strong similarity with XAO, the current leg up could certainly be wave C of an expanded flat that should break the recent high.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (26 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As discussed last night, a breakout of the triple zig-zag correction did occur (after the "default" false breakout) on the S&P500 futures (almost exactly on 61.8% fib retracement), so hopefully today's action on the XAO displays the start of wave III up as discussed previously (although I'm yet to see a solid 5 wave pattern up on the Aussie Futures this morning which may not confirm the XAO wave III as yet )


----------



## Sean K (26 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Today's market action, whilst down may be the start of a bigger push up as 5 small waves up (wave I) followed by a 3 wave correction down (wave II) seems to have been completed. Although there's every possibility that further downside action is possible considering the larger wave (II) has only corrected 23% of wave (I). Usually at least a 38%+ correction should be seen for 2nd waves, although 23% is usually considered a minimum - the next 1 or 2 trading days should provide more visibility on the short term wave structure. Today also marks the 3rd inside day on the XAO which may result breakout  - hopefully forming wave (III) up



Got any timings for us on these eventualities OzWaveGuy, or are you pure EW?


----------



## OzWaveGuy (26 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Got any timings for us on these eventualities OzWaveGuy, or are you pure EW?




Hopefully we should see the end of the downside action today and thus complete the small wave (II) down which appears to be forming a flat (with a B wave failure), hence the last leg down should play out in 5 small waves that hit or go just beyond the XAO low from the 23rd (thus forming a double bottom). The S&P500 futures appears to be correcting from the 5 wave up breakout last night in a wave 2 down that must not drop below 1185 (strong resistance at 1189). I'm still not entirely satisfied that the XAO Wave (II) will hit only 23.6% correction, but it implies that market has a good level of confidence that higher values can be reached. More later


----------



## OzWaveGuy (26 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wave (II) down completed today at almost bang on 38% retracement of wave (I), something I was really in favor of. I'm not usually satisfied of a 23% retracement of most waves, until it's evident that the market has moved on from the correction. What's more, the leg down today developed in a clear 5 waves down, thus providing more credibility that wave (II) was a flat (3-3-5 wave formation), in this case with a B wave failure as previously discussed. It looks though the next leg up - wave (III) is forming, and I believe that the chances of wave (II) further correcting with a double flat correction is low considering that it's taken a long time for wave (II) to form v's wave (I) (which formed in 68% of the time wave (II) took to develop). Also, S&P500 futures retraced almost all of last night's move to within 2 points of the 1185 low that was discussed earlier - if it had hit 1185 it would have had me rethink the whole short term view - what's 2 points between friends, right? Right now, the S&P500 futures needs to move up from the current lows and form wave 3 of 3 for the current bullish view to remain intact.


----------



## Porper (26 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Wave (II) down completed today at almost bang on 38% retracement of wave (I), something I was really in favor of. I'm not usually satisfied of a 23% retracement of most waves, until it's evident that the market has moved on from the correction. What's more, the leg down today developed in a clear 5 waves down, thus providing more credibility that wave (II) was a flat (3-3-5 wave formation), in this case with a B wave failure as previously discussed. It looks though the next leg up - wave (III) is forming, and I believe that the chances of wave (II) further correcting with a double flat correction is low considering that it's taken a long time for wave (II) to form v's wave (I) (which formed in 68% of the time wave (II) took to develop). Also, S&P500 futures retraced almost all of last night's move to within 2 points of the 1185 low that was discussed earlier - if it had hit 1185 it would have had me rethink the whole short term view - what's 2 points between friends, right? Right now, the S&P500 futures needs to move up from the current lows and form wave 3 of 3 for the current bullish view to remain intact.





This is the alternate count I am looking at.

Before the E.Wave critics jump in, it is more than valid to watch 2 counts at once.

One will be invalidated leaving of course one.

As I have said before I find the Nasdaq count the clearest which suggests much more pain to come.

At the end of the day, the bail out plan in the US (or lack of ) may dictate short term direction.Medium term we look like we are going down.


----------



## Greg71 (26 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I s'pose it's a lower trough and a lower peak.


----------



## $20shoes (27 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't think the XAO has enough wind in its sails to walk the upper BB bands. 
It just doesn't have enough spunk yet. In a consolidation scenario where the bands are showing little volatility, and you then get an emotional extreme pushing hard against the green 55day BB (on the 18th for eg), you often get two scenarios -
i) its a head fake that precedes a decent rally
ii) its a warning of the next emotional direction the market wants to take after it has a breather; a shot across the bow, so to speak. 

I think we may see a euphoric move (with bail out approval) pushing up against the upper BB bands, maybe closing at 5300 in next week. But I'm sceptical that a decent rally will ensue. ( Note the Money Flow and RSI divergences longer term would suggest a bear market rally is indeed a possibility...I just can't see it being long lived). 

I just get the feeling that the XAO wants to indulge in “a little of the old ultra-violence".


----------



## Broadway (27 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think the xao is heading up for a few days. (but im a permabull so dyor)

I find patterns and support on the ES helpful, as it pulls the xao around.

I think the US markets are surprised at the effort and debate going into the 'rescue package' as opposed to blindly throwing money into a bailout. I think the markets are impressed by the debate, and are factoring in a rise prior to an announcement next week.

Washington Mutual temporarily got in the way, and last night's gains were impressive despite negative Wachovia rumours.

It's interesting that the recent short term bottom (17,18,19 september) happened around futures rollover time. This was the same in March. The 'bottom volume' I was looking for was hidden in the rollover volume, which is somewhat annoying, because I would have liked 140 ES (400 spi) points in 24 hours..


----------



## jaithomson (27 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bring on the bailout so we can buy, then sell like crazy i say...


----------



## OzWaveGuy (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The small wave (II) correction wasn't quite content at a 38.2% retracement. The XAO headed down to a 50% retracement (to within 1 point) of wave (I) today, and developed a slightly different corrective pattern than that was previously discussed . 

Instead of a flat (3-3-5), a double zig-zag formed which displays as two a-b-c (5-3-5) corrections separated by an X wave as shown). Picking the type of correction is like pulling hens teeth until the correction is just about over.

Interestingly, the Aussie Futures never looked in a position to drive upwards since the Friday close as a clear 5 wave advance wasn't visible (nor on the S&P500) and formed what looks to be an expanded flat with the C wave down hopefully finishing soon where bullish divergences on the RSI and Price rate of change are visible. A clear 5 waves up needs to materialize very soon on both the XAO and the Aussie Futures to validate the current count.

Also, I thought I'd post a snapshot of the real estate sector which displays one of the best Elliottwave Patterns I've ever seen here ---> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=341958&postcount=732


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Also, I thought I'd post a snapshot of the real estate sector which displays one of the best Elliottwave Patterns I've ever seen here ---> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=341958&postcount=732




The property Trust(XPJ) is not the "real estate" sector.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> The property Trust(XPJ) is not the "real estate" sector.




Sorry, my slip. Still a great EW pattern and reflects the mood in that sector!


----------



## nunthewiser (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL but no disrespect nor offence intended but my take on the elliot wave spruikers and readers of said patterns have the advantage of being able to change the "pivot " points on a daily basis using new fandango phraseology and numbers quoted until one day they might get it right , gawd bless a freee market hey


----------



## nunthewiser (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

wooden spoons for sale


----------



## tech/a (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL but no disrespect nor offence intended but my take on the elliot wave spruikers and readers of said patterns have the advantage of being able to change the "pivot " points on a daily basis using new fandango phraseology and numbers quoted until one day they might get it right , gawd bless a freee market hey





AND if the fundamentals of a company alter do you simply stay with your analysis or alter it accordingly.
OR if a trend is broken do you simply ignore it and trade the trend regardless.
This is one of the benifits of Elliott --The analysis tells you WHEN its incorrect and gives you the opportunity to "Reset" it given what is known.

I personally use Elliott in my analysis and has given me just the edge I need.
Ive also posted realtime trades which only seem to get comments if they fail.

The latest Ive made public were these.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12119

Frankly I think comments like these show the lack of experience in analysis.
Perhaps then you'll remain "Nunthewiser"


----------



## nunthewiser (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> AND if the fundamentals of a company alter do you simply stay with your analysis or alter it accordingly.
> OR if a trend is broken do you simply ignore it and trade the trend regardless.
> This is one of the benifits of Elliott --The analysis tells you WHEN its incorrect and gives you the opportunity to "Reset" it given what is known.
> 
> ...




um the way ive read the posts here lately is calling a rise to a certain level each day then changing the numbers at where it turns each time because it didnt happen . I too use elliot amongst other other tools but basically at the end of the day it is merely another view from behind until someone gueeses it right then they sing how accurate they or there methods used were.
i have no comments on anyones posted real time trades as i post mine too in other places and know exactly where ya coming from .
like i said no offense was intended was merely pointing out what i see


----------



## nunthewiser (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OH DEAR!.........



"Frankly I think comments like these show the lack of experience in analysis.
Perhaps then you'll remain "Nunthewiser"

 LOL
now who showing a lack of experience dear ?? .um i merely pointed out some failings in your beloved elliot and some of the posts here and now you wish to attack me personally , grow up dear and confront or answer my posts in a mature manner 


thanks in advance 
an open minded when it comes to trading and investing Nun


----------



## OzWaveGuy (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> AND if the fundamentals of a company alter do you simply stay with your analysis or alter it accordingly.
> OR if a trend is broken do you simply ignore it and trade the trend regardless.
> This is one of the benifits of Elliott --The analysis tells you WHEN its incorrect and gives you the opportunity to "Reset" it given what is known.
> 
> ...





tech/a, can you tell me how you find Advance Get wrt EW? Accuracy overall performance and cost? thx in advance


----------



## Porper (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Instead of a flat (3-3-5), a double zig-zag formed which displays as two a-b-c (5-3-5) corrections separated by an X wave as shown). Picking the type of correction is like pulling hens teeth until the correction is just about over.




In my experience (which isn't too long) these type of corrections are next to impossible to trade.

We could even get another zig zag making it a triple.No way I know of that can tell you this.

It can't be a combination as only one zig zag is allowed.

I still favour that we are in a wave 3 impulse down although we could get another correction testing the recent highs.

There are times when any type of analysis gives conflicting information.E.Wave is no different.

I am waiting for confirmation, probably a break of the recent lows before trading full positions again.


----------



## tech/a (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> I too use elliot amongst other other tools but basically at the end of the day it is merely another view from behind until someone gueeses it right then they sing how accurate they or there methods used were.




This I find an amazing comment from someone who "Uses" Elliott in their analysis.
Its not a comment I have ever seen from an exponent of Elliott---rather from those who simply dont understand the analysis.


----------



## jaithomson (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So..? Up, Down tomorrow..? What do you think..?


----------



## mayk (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> So..? Up, Down tomorrow..? What do you think..?




Flip a coin the best analysis right now.


----------



## nunthewiser (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Good grief!, remind me not to question elliot wave accuracy and "change the story  analysis until its right" approach again .

have a lovely day


----------



## tech/a (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Good grief!, remind me not to question elliot wave accuracy and "change the story  analysis until its right" approach again .
> 
> have a lovely day





I'll be happy to.


----------



## tech/a (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> So..? Up, Down tomorrow..? What do you think..?




Thats pretty easy.
just go here at anytime and you'll see where we are likely to open (if the market opened in the next minute).

http://futuresource.quote.com/quotes/quotes.jsp?s=AP-SFE=1

Right now if we opened we'd be solidly down.


----------



## IFocus (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL but no disrespect nor offence intended




None taken




> But my take on the elliot wave spruikers and readers of said patterns have the advantage of being able to change the "pivot " points on a daily




Not aware of any sprukers around at the moment on ASF but when they do turn up it tends to be a pack dog attack by various members including myself.

I have found EW to fail often like any other analysis but it can let the market come to you, when it holds up it can give a very nice where are we now insight to the market.

A general misunderstanding by users, purveyors, and those that comment generally is that its should be some how be infallible I never understand this. 

I to was a skeptic (so was Tech BTW) years ago but had another go learning from Nick Radge which helped a lot.



> basis using new fandango phraseology and numbers quoted until one day they might get it right




EW has been around for a very long time nothing new about it.

BTW support level broken today interesting to see if any follow through


----------



## wayneL (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

FWIW on EW

...it's no different to any other type of "pattern" trading. As long as it's used in a prove-disprove(to paraphrase Nick) manner and not as a strict predicting mechanism.

Also FWIW, there is a lot of wild swings in sentiment at the moment making it very difficult to trade any sort of pattern system in the normal way we're used to (IMO).

I've gone from being a strategist with a big map of the battlefield on a huge table, in a big cigar smoke filled room, pushing little models of armies and battleships around with sticks - to slipping on black clothes, blackening my face and sneaking around the jungle with an AK47 (don't jam up when they get dirty like the stupid m16) and my bayonet in my teeth, making a few raids, slitting a few throats and getting the hell away before "they" know I'm there.

This is guerrilla warfare as far as I'm concerned and the normal rules don't apply.


----------



## tech/a (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> I to was a skeptic (so was Tech BTW) years ago




More so Gann. Always had a respect for Elliott as I kept seeing it in terms of waves and others useage.
Really couldnt get my head around the application.
Do now.

Gann is similar but still leaves me cold re application.
While Elliot will have a few "points of interest" Gann will have 30.


----------



## chops_a_must (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				WayneL said:
			
		

> Also FWIW, there is a lot of wild swings in sentiment at the moment making it very difficult to trade any sort of pattern system in the normal way we're used to (IMO).
> 
> I've gone from being a strategist with a big map of the battlefield on a huge table, in a big cigar smoke filled room, pushing little models of armies and battleships around with sticks - to slipping on black clothes, blackening my face and sneaking around the jungle with an AK47 (don't jam up when they get dirty like the stupid m16) and my bayonet in my teeth, making a few raids, slitting a few throats and getting the hell away before "they" know I'm there.
> 
> This is guerrilla warfare as far as I'm concerned and the normal rules don't apply.



AKA terrorist trading. :


----------



## IFocus (29 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> FWIW on EW
> 
> ...it's no different to any other type of "pattern" trading. As long as it's used in a prove-disprove(to paraphrase Nick) manner and not as a strict predicting mechanism.
> 
> ...




LOL you might be interested in some cheap Russian hardware off the coast of Africa.......


----------



## tech/a (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Thats UGLY*


----------



## jaithomson (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

uuugghh!!!


----------



## tech/a (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Didnt get any better.
Think we will get a very strong reaction particularly in the Financial sector.
The USD strengthened on the news sending the AUD lower.
I expect that resources will fair better in the next few days if not today.
I'm expecting a large spike down in just about everything.


----------



## wayneL (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dunno Tech, 

Though gold up a bit, copper and oil took it up the khyber.
 BHP down *-14.2%* on NYSE.


----------



## CamKawa (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Dunno Tech,
> 
> Though gold up a bit, copper and oil took it up the khyber.
> BHP down *-14.2%* on NYSE.



Falls like that make for fairly exhilarating trading as it’s difficult to control risk. If BHP closes 15% lower today what can traders do? Just frantically wave the 2% rule at market?


----------



## CamKawa (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ASIC banned short selling to solve this problem. Looks like they are going to have to ban long sellers now as well.


----------



## CamKawa (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Actually, l wouldn't mind betting the ASX suffers a strategically placed computer glitch this morning. Who’s going to bet against me? Winner gets a poke in the eye.


----------



## Temjin (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> ASIC banned short selling to solve this problem. Looks like they are going to have to ban long sellers now as well.




Heh They might just ban trading all together, for a few days, just like the Pakistians. Or disallow selling below a certain price or something. 

What a bloodbath though!  I was expecting a bailout cos Buffet was betting on it (with a few cool billion too). Not sure if  he expected this or not, or is he expecting the first bill may fail and a second one will save the day?


----------



## dhukka (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> Actually, l wouldn't mind betting the ASX suffers a strategically placed computer glitch this morning. Who’s going to bet against me? Winner gets a poke in the eye.




Yeah and I bet you won't be able to get into Comsuck either.


----------



## Glen48 (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So do you buy more when they go down or panic?


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Glen48 said:


> So do you buy more when they go down or panic?




This morning isn't the day to ask that question if you havn't already planned for it.

And if that is the case it certainly is not the time to act on it.


----------



## tech/a (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Dunno Tech,
> 
> Though gold up a bit, copper and oil took it up the khyber.
> BHP down *-14.2%* on NYSE.




There is no doubt that everything will suffer from the end of the financial world as we know it---panick selling.



CamKawa said:


> Falls like that make for fairly exhilarating trading as it’s difficult to control risk. If BHP closes 15% lower today what can traders do? Just frantically wave the 2% rule at market?




I have 2 long trades both in the resource sector. I will be pulling my stops.
Standing aside and watching for opportunity.---It will come. Sub $30 BHP---nice!!



dhukka said:


> Yeah and I bet you won't be able to get into Comsuck either.





Nothing surer.
Whatever the crowd is doing I'll be doing the opposite---mind you timing is important.
No that doesnt mean buying my brains out today---but it does mean watching carefully.


----------



## CamKawa (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Glen48 said:


> So do you buy more when they go down or panic?



panic


----------



## chops_a_must (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lol @ Wavepicker.

Maybe we should let him short his own cred. Maybe then he could get something right.

Will be looking to buy some gold stocks today, depending...


----------



## chops_a_must (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> panic




Yeah, it's time for people to start running around, cracking people's heads open and feasting on the goo inside.


----------



## dhukka (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> There is no doubt that everything will suffer from the end of the financial world as we know it---panick selling.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Yep, this will be the best opportunity since an 22nd..... or maybe tomorrow will be even better.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm looking to play for longs either right on the Futs open or around 10:10 to 10:30.

Thinking is we close higher than we are on the cash open or low of the morning.

Either way its going to be a high volume, big range **** fight today.


----------



## Nyden (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'll definitely be keeping my eye out today as well; certainly looking forward to seeing a bit of carnage


----------



## Aussiejeff (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> ASIC banned short selling to solve this problem. Looks like they are going to have to ban long sellers now as well.




Might have to include banning auto stop loss triggers too.... 

Funny how share trading volumes have plunged around the world since the first day of the ban....


----------



## chops_a_must (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> Might have to include banning auto stop loss triggers too....
> 
> Funny how share trading volumes have plunged around the world since the first day of the ban....




Apart from some people here, you could see that a mile off.

Difficulties in controlling risk, means no buying.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> Funny how share trading volumes have plunged around the world since the first day of the ban....





Have they??


----------



## white_goodman (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Have they??




i beleive they have....

why dont they just ban volume.... only 10 trades per stock per hour... will stop volatility..


----------



## dhukka (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Yep, this will be the best opportunity since an 22nd..... or maybe tomorrow will be even better.




Should have been Jan 22nd


----------



## CamKawa (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO volume looks to me like it's holding up alright. The candle with a green line through it is the first day of the short selling ban.


----------



## skyQuake (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Gonna be fun seeing CFD's and Margin Lenders liquidating when cash opens. So imo long open, short cash, then long after open again 
Have fun guys!


----------



## Struzball (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> XAO volume looks to me like it's holding up alright. The candle with a green line through it is the first day of the short selling ban.




...and the day of the announcement of a $1T injection... which is gone now.

*edit: oops sorry didn't see VOLUME


----------



## Porper (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, didn't take long for that count to sort itself.


Looks like the wave 3 down is going to get on with job today.

Strong and powerful is common for a wave 3, and we are going to get it big style today.

Wouldn't be surprised if we get a bounce up to the underside of the ledge that has formed since mid August at some point before making our merry way much lower again.

The world is ending scenario is here.Soon be time to get bullish again.


----------



## Green08 (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

CNBC Trading matters they have two conflicting reports


The markets will open at 10am and the other markets open in 30 mins.  They can't get an aswer!

We are to open 375 down on the XOA


----------



## Temjin (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, news.com.au confirmed that an ASX spokesman confirming the opening hours will be as per normal. Reuter had it wrong apparently.


----------



## Nyden (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> Well, news.com.au confirmed that an ASX spokesman confirming the opening hours will be as per normal. Reuter had it wrong apparently.




... From CommSec

Extension to ASX Opening Phase< Tuesday 30th September 
Group 1 (A-B) 10.00am
Group 2 (C-F) 10.04am
Group 3 (G-M) 10.08am
Group 4 (N-R) 10.12am
Group 5 (S-Z) 10.16am


----------



## bankit (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From Commsec:
Extension to ASX Opening Phase Tuesday 30th September 
Group 1 (A-B) *10.00am*
Group 2 (C-F) *10.04am*
Group 3 (G-M) *10.08am*
Group 4 (N-R) *10.12am*
Group 5 (S-Z) *10.16am*

*Whoops! crossed*


----------



## sam76 (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

2352 GMT [Dow Jones] After a record rout on Wall Street overnight following Congress' failure to pass a US$700 billion bailout of the financial system, the ASX is staggering the opening of Australian share trading. The time between the alphabetical opening of stocks will be extended by several minutes. Further comment from the ASX wasn't immediately available. SFE 200 pointing to a 7% drop when the Australian market opens. (SVM)


----------



## Kauri (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nikkei looking relatively good... so far...


weak Japanese data and the relatively buoyant Nikkei considering the Wall Street plunge  look to be supportive. The Nikkei is currently down 179.67 points or 1.53% at 11,563.94, not much given the 777.68 point or 6.98% plunge in the DJIA to 10,365.45.

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Struzball (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Etrade seems to be grinding to a halt, the market isn't even fully open yet.


----------



## nunthewiser (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Struzball said:


> Etrade seems to be grinding to a halt, the market isn't even fully open yet.




power etrade working fine here


----------



## dhukka (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well I must say it has been a bit disappointing so far. Not near enoough panic for my liking.


----------



## Struzball (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Well I must say it has been a bit disappointing so far. Not near enoough panic for my liking.




Worlds still turning


----------



## Nyden (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Well I must say it has been a bit disappointing so far. Not near enoough panic for my liking.




Must say I agree

Although; I believe I've become rather desensitized. How *normal* is it to see bluechips fall near on 10% in one day?


----------



## Struzball (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Struzball said:


> Etrade seems to be grinding to a halt, the market isn't even fully open yet.




When i try to go to 'my portfolio' in Etrade.

'You do not have access to the requested feature. Please contact us to resolve this problem. '

Cool


----------



## jaithomson (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like she is winding back.... but how far and for how long...?


----------



## wayneL (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Well I must say it has been a bit disappointing so far. Not near enoough panic for my liking.




Yep, most of the chatter is about what to buy. No capitulation in sight.

Nor a bottom.


----------



## white_goodman (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Yep, most of the chatter is about what to buy. No capitulation in sight.
> 
> Nor a bottom.




hmmm hope people bought into some good opportunities this morning


----------



## dhukka (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Yep, most of the chatter is about what to buy. No capitulation in sight.
> 
> Nor a bottom.




Yeah, today looks like a walk in the park compared to Jan 22nd. No tell tale signs of a bottom here yet folks.


----------



## nomore4s (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> hmmm hope people bought into some good opportunities this morning




The question is will they be good buys come tomorrow or Monday


----------



## Nyden (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> hmmm hope people bought into some good opportunities this morning




Nope, not yet. I'm still hoping for some much heftier losses towards the bell.


----------



## ozambersand (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Must say I agree
> 
> Although; I believe I've become rather desensitized. How *normal* is it to see bluechips fall near on 10% in one day?



Falls that high in bluechips are not common, however what I find interesting is that for some of those bluechips, such as CBA their price today is still 10% higher than this year's low point. While QBE is 20% higher than it was in July.
So while they may be 5% lower than yesterday, in terms of long term trading it is not as significant. Now, if we get the same result for two more days in a row that's a different matter! 
That's why I prefer to use longer timeframes when looking at stock prices.


----------



## chops_a_must (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> hmmm hope people bought into some good opportunities this morning




Crazy to buy in the morning.

If you are dead keen on buying, you wait until the 3pm margin call today in these conditions, or on open tomorrow.

It's a different story with gold stocks though...


----------



## korrupt_1 (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone post a chart of the VIX compared to the other recent huge fallouts?

Is the VIX off the scale yet?


----------



## tech/a (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> hmmm hope people bought into some good opportunities this morning




Wallet firmly in pocket.
You'll see when its ok.
"V" bottom very unlikely.
Buying seems to have pulled up for now.
Wait for the dust to settle and see whats left!


----------



## mazzatelli1000 (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Anyone post a chart of the VIX compared to the other recent huge fallouts?
> 
> Is the VIX off the scale yet?




Ask WayneL, he knows very well how large the VIX moved


----------



## wildthing (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How is this Korrupt


----------



## korrupt_1 (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wildthing said:


> How is this Korrupt




thanks...

46.72!!! that's incredible... almost off the charts !!!


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not buying. Ya kidding??

Been buying with my ears pinned back.


----------



## kotim (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The 4300 area on the xao is the 1-1 ratio down with the initial wave down.

We have 50% of all time price at the 3450 area which is also conincidentally the same area as the tops of the 01-02.  We cannot go down to this area, If we even get close to this area then when you realise how far below where we currently are it is it would mean that the major banking stocks and mining stocks etc would have to fall at least 60-80% of all time prices.  Stocks like Suncorp could even fail and that cannot be allowed to happen

When you realise how much more we would go down to reach that area and then equate that to overseas markets, then kaboom.

The devestation on the economy would be the greatest equaling the great depression era. 

The United states congress WILL offer a solution in the next few days becasue they HAVE TO.  I personally expect us to false break below the 4300 area and then pull up in line with congress passing the required solution.

The 1987 market dropped 50%, however our banks ( which control the economy) hare allready experienced falls of 40-50%.  Don't forget ANZ and westpac dropped just over 60% of their all times high in the crisis that followed.

But at the end of the day it is just talk, will I have the guts to go into the market at the 4300 area, we shall see.


----------



## Sunder (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, it has hit support created a few days ago.

I'm feeling once bitten at the moment, but I do have a small holding.


----------



## korrupt_1 (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Not buying. Ya kidding??
> 
> Been buying with my ears pinned back.




i've heard that expression a few times "ears pinned back".. what does that mean? to go in with confidence? or is it a gamble and hoping for the best?


----------



## Sunder (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> i've heard that expression a few times "ears pinned back".. what does that mean? to go in with confidence? or is it a gamble and hoping for the best?




I was curious too, so I googled it:



> “To have one’s ears pinned back” means to be chastised, scolded or verbally disciplined in a very forceful manner, or, by extension, to be soundly defeated in a contest or an argument. It’s an American phrase that first appeared in the mid-19th century, and although “to have one’s ears pinned back” is by far the most common form, the Dictionary of American English also lists “to get one’s ears knocked down” and “to get one’s ears chewed down” as synonyms meaning “to receive a severe scolding.” All of these phrases are, incidentally, distinct from such sayings as “to have one’s ears lowered,” meaning to get a haircut. The British use of “pin one’s ears back” to mean “pay close attention” appears to refer to an animal raising its ears in alertness, an action also known a “pricking up” its ears.




Strange.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Strange.




We aren't in America or google.

ever seen a grey hound run?? or a rabbit? or a grey hound run after a rabbit??

In any case we have ran 200 points UP since the open (futs)


----------



## undertoe (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i knew what you meant, anyone else doing any buying?


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> what does that mean? to go in with confidence? or is it a gamble and hoping for the best?




No hoping, they work or they don't 

Just to be clear Like my post before the open saying that I expect a higher close than the open. Have bought the open and more on the way up. Half flipped off now. the rest trailing stops to the close.

I'm not that interested in holding much overnight but will reassess if trailing stops aren't taken out (which I doubt they will survive).


----------



## wildthing (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



undertoe said:


> i knew what you meant, anyone else doing any buying?




Was thinking bout buying BHP....has hit support at $31.00 ish 3 times now since August 07....so should be a long term support........but it skipped too hi.....will wait for retracement later today?

Cheers


----------



## IFocus (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> The 4300 area on the xao is the 1-1 ratio down with the initial wave down.
> 
> We have 50% of all time price at the 3450 area which is also conincidentally the same area as the tops of the 01-02.  We cannot go down to this area, If we even get close to this area then when you realise how far below where we currently are it is it would mean that the major banking stocks and mining stocks etc would have to fall at least 60-80% of all time prices.  Stocks like Suncorp could even fail and that cannot be allowed to happen
> 
> ...





Monthly Log chart below of XAO interesting 87 got smashed (I read 61.8% retrace)where here we are seemingly in bigger trouble and just bleeding down and people talking about buying

I am still don't feel the fear is high enough to buy (the VIX certainly thinks so) maybe I will miss the bottom this time around.


.


----------



## Sunder (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> We aren't in America or google.
> 
> ever seen a grey hound run?? or a rabbit? or a grey hound run after a rabbit??
> 
> In any case we have ran 200 points UP since the open (futs)




So more "The British use of “pin one’s ears back” to mean “pay close attention” appears to refer to an animal raising its ears in alertness, an action also known as “pricking up” its ears." definition?

As in go in paying very close attention?


----------



## korrupt_1 (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> So more "The British use of “pin one’s ears back” to mean “pay close attention” appears to refer to an animal raising its ears in alertness, an action also known as “pricking up” its ears." definition?
> 
> As in go in paying very close attention?




yes... i think that's what it means...

to enter the trade with confidence but fully alert and ready to act.

ie.. when u see a lion hunt... it's ears are pinned back... fully alert and ready to pounce.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL or like this....


----------



## dhukka (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey TH, shouldn't the market be up today since oil is off *$15 *since last week?


----------



## jaithomson (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

bahhhaaaha


----------



## deadset (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A horse or dog pin their ears back just before and as they strike.  

BHP looks sweet in the 31s, are you getting some ?


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Hey TH, shouldn't the market be up today since oil is off *$15 *since last week?




Just a pot hole I believe.


----------



## dhukka (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Just a pot hole I believe.




Oh yeah, forgot about them potholes, although personally I think it's more like a crater.


----------



## jaithomson (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If Wall Street bounces back a little tonight it may setup a good opportunity for shorts tomorrow at the open? What do you think.?


----------



## nunthewiser (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

was a nice call earlier actually TH , well done , bet it wasnt elliot wave induced


----------



## IFocus (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> was a nice call earlier actually TH , well done , bet it wasnt elliot wave induced




Don't mention the war


----------



## nunthewiser (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Don't mention the war




hahahahah .....it was a nice call tho


----------



## tech/a (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> was a nice call earlier actually TH , well done , bet it wasnt elliot wave induced




Smart arrrsssse

Its always eye opening to see your indepth analysis, care to put some up?


----------



## Nyden (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kicking myself a bit for not buying this morning, came close; but I was waiting for that panic that just hasn't eventuated yet 

ANZ, BHP, OZL, STW ... isn't hindsight wonderful :


I guess having been out of the market for so long; a bit of restraint has crept up on me. I really should start setting up a new long term market plan


----------



## nunthewiser (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Smart arrrsssse
> 
> Its always eye opening to see your indepth analysis, care to put some up?




OH DEAR!!!

back to name calling i see ... cmon now darl no need for that 

i post my analysis in the live chat section on a daily basis and have done for years 

now please sit back down , chill out and have a nice cup of tea before you get anymore emotional over my tounge in cheek comments


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Don't mention the war



 too late I think



nunthewiser said:


> was a nice call earlier actually TH , well done , bet it wasnt elliot wave induced



 No caffeine induced 



tech/a said:


> Smart arrrsssse
> 
> Its always eye opening to see your indepth analysis, care to put some up?




Come on Tech be kind. Tell ya what I will send you 2 free tickets to my next seminar. "How to make money while everyone else isn't"  ($3000 of value free!!)


----------



## nunthewiser (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ps , if u do a search of my posts i dare say you will find a few of my comments regarding market situations and various other subjects 

have a lovely day


----------



## tech/a (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> ps , if u do a search of my posts i dare say you will find a few of my comments regarding market situations and various other subjects
> 
> have a lovely day




I'll have a search and see what I can find.
TH its all about timeframe.


----------



## nunthewiser (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dear tech/a.......... now i am a little concerned that this discussion has got a little out of hand , in the past i have enjoyed your posts and actually respected your calls REGARDLESS of being right or wrong ...... um i dunno why you feel the urge to attack me personally as my original discussion was NOT actually to you and it was in regards to my observations on the elliot wave guesses being bandied around . i do appologise if my observations and comments regarding EW upset you but will strive to keep my comments regarding said anylasis to myself and in the chatroom from now on and let bygones be bygones 
be well 

luv nunthewiser


----------



## jaithomson (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ladies please... enough of the sob talk.

Back to business - so, tonitagh.. What are we predicting..?


----------



## tech/a (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I'll have a search and see what I can find.
> TH its all about timeframe.





Dont mind learned comments from anyone.
But dont suffer fools easily.
Had a look---as expected.
Carry on.


----------



## Whiskers (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Hey TH, shouldn't the market be up today since oil is off *$15 *since last week?






Trembling Hand said:


> Just a pot hole I believe.






dhukka said:


> Oh yeah, forgot about them potholes, although personally I think it's more like a crater.




Oil is in a corrective phase ABC... just dropped a bit lower than first thought for B, so C will probably only get marginally above recent highs in the next few days or so.

But as for the XAO, yes it's still just a pothole... albeit a double pothole.

Sorry, I haven't been frolicking in here with yers, but I've been busy on something that hasn't looked quite right with the larger degree wave patterns that I adopted from (the experts) for a starting point. 

Might have somethin to report later. 

But for what it's worth TH made a good call this morning... it wasn't going to go down all day.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> Back to business - so, tonitagh.. What are we predicting..?




An inside day.....


----------



## nunthewiser (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Dont mind learned comments from anyone.
> But dont suffer fools easily.
> Had a look---as expected.
> Carry on.




so because i disagree with said analystic comments regarding XAO guesstimates i am a fool, now ?


----------



## white_goodman (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Oil is in a corrective phase ABC... just dropped a bit lower than first thought for B, so C will probably only get marginally above recent highs in the next few days or so.
> 
> But as for the XAO, yes it's still just a pothole... albeit a double pothole.
> 
> ...




yeh TH just earned himself a Christmas Card from me


----------



## tech/a (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> so because i disagree with said analystic comments regarding XAO guesstimates i am a fool, now ?




In one breath you say you use Elliott in your analysis and in the other you show a lack of understanding as the wave counts alter.
If you actually understood Elliott you wouldnt make such un educated comment.


Mind you I am talking of those who actually have obvious Elliott knowledge and its pretty obvious who they are.


----------



## nunthewiser (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> In one breath you say you use Elliott in your analysis and in the other you show a lack of understanding as the wave counts alter.
> If you actually understood Elliott you wouldnt make such un educated comment.
> 
> 
> Mind you I am talking of those who actually have obvious Elliott knowledge and its pretty obvious who they are.




LOL yes its darn obvious regarding the recent elliot predictions allright ..um also i said i use elliiot as ONE tool in my analysis , to me its just another way of viewing a chartand the use of said tool is open to so many variations as well as the count differing to different time frames anyways , dunno why this conversation still going as think that its personally a waste of time trying to poinbt out flaws to those that can only see with one eye ,
end of subject with me and do hope that you havent been following the said predictions here that have been using elliot to guess where the market was going next 

be well


----------



## white_goodman (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL yes its darn obvious regarding the recent elliot predictions allright ..um also i said i use elliiot as ONE tool in my analysis , to me its just another way of viewing a chartand the use of said tool is open to so many variations as well as the count differing to different time frames anyways , dunno why this conversation still going as think that its personally a waste of time trying to poinbt out flaws to those that can only see with one eye ,
> end of subject with me and do hope that you havent been following the said predictions here that have been using elliot to guess where the market was going next
> 
> be well





yeh i wouldnt use elliot as you only tool, i personally dont use it, but like to see when you guys post charts which agree with my own analysis


----------



## Porper (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> my original discussion was NOT actually to you and it was in regards to my observations on the elliot wave guesses being bandied around .




Nunthewiser,

You know full well that you are being antagonistic with quotes like the one above.

I also think you know that nobody (that I know of) uses Elliot Wave in isolation.

This is an XAO analysis thread, so whichever method people use that's what they post.

E.Wave is as valid as any other trend indicator, whether you like it or not.

Food for thought, how many people are surviving or prospering in this market ?

I know some, I also know they use Elliot as PART of their analysis.


----------



## tech/a (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL yes its darn obvious regarding the recent elliot predictions allright ..um also i said i use elliiot as ONE tool in my analysis , to me its just another way of viewing a chartand the use of said tool is open to so many variations as well as the count differing to different time frames anyways , *dunno why this conversation still going as think that its personally a waste of time trying to poinbt out flaws to those that can only see with one eye ,
> end of subject with me and do hope that you havent been following the said predictions here that have been using elliot to guess where the market was going next *
> be well





You should really do your homework before casting aspersions.

Take a look here from post 36 on with regard to use of Elliott in my analysis.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12119&page=2

Now look back through this thread and you'll see my Elliott Wave analysis hasnt altered on the XAO/XJO for months.

Try post 3153 onwards and tell me how hopeless the analysis was!


----------



## OzWaveGuy (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I see EW is getting a lot of discussion here - it's good to see everyone jump in. The reality is that corrections in EW are always hard to predict at the best of times let alone in choppy markets as we're seeing right now until they're almost over. However, it doesn't mean EW as a tool is wrong only the way one interprets it (like any other method).

Back to the analysis, the final leg up did complete on the 23rd with 5 waves up, forming a Irregular flat correction, where wave c doesn't recover the ground of wave b. However, there's still an outside chance that the wave ii correction hasn't yet completed and today's low (a very low volume day) actually marked the end of the b wave as shown in the alternate count in blue. Even if the alternate count comes into play it's doubtful that wave c will recover all of wave b and will probably form a irregular flat correction - five clear waves up from today's low will prove the alternate count.

The preferred wave count is down, although clear 5 waves down from the wave ii high is yet to unfold to validate the next short term moves. Ultimately the longer term count on the XAO is still extremely bearish with 3rd waves usually the most aggressive esp at several degrees (in this case wave 3 of 3)


----------



## jaithomson (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Back on a rally - just blown past the 4700 mark...


----------



## skyQuake (30 September 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We failed a recovery rally. Was hoping to see it through but lunchtime killed it.
Financials did ok but market leaders BHP and RIO tanked hard. Don't think this bear market is even close to finished.

Maybe in the coming days or weeks we'll see this break finish up proper.


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> Ladies please... enough of the sob talk.
> 
> Back to business - so, tonitagh.. What are we predicting..?






Trembling Hand said:


> An inside day.....




LOL. Up 5% and still an inside day!! :bong: Interesting times we live in. Something to tell the grandkids.


----------



## white_goodman (1 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> LOL. Up 5% and still an inside day!! :bong: Interesting times we live in. Something to tell the grandkids.




how ridiculous, lucky for those who bought yesterday... I personally wouldnt want to hold over tonight tho, you never know with this market


----------



## wayneL (1 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> how ridiculous, lucky for those who bought yesterday... I personally wouldnt want to hold over tonight tho, you never know with this market



With intraday moves like this (and frequent bloody gaps in the opposite direction), who needs to hold overnight.

Ahhh day trading!


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Ahhh day trading!




Shhhh!!:nono:

You will get Nioka banging on about "ethical investment" and not ripping off the system. Wysiswyg about rigged moves. Whiskers about EW seeing into the future and ROE & Freedy2 about it being impossible to make money daytading. And countless others about TA not working anymore.

:behead:


----------



## GreatPig (1 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The biggest problem with day trading is finding time to do it while you're at work. 

GP


----------



## white_goodman (1 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> The biggest problem with day trading is finding time to do it while you're at work.
> 
> GP




ahh the biggest problem is to find time to work whilst day trading


----------



## Whiskers (1 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> I see EW is getting a lot of discussion here - it's good to see everyone jump in. The reality is that corrections in EW are always hard to predict at the best of times let alone in choppy markets as we're seeing right now until they're almost over. However, it doesn't mean EW as a tool is wrong only the way one interprets it (like any other method).
> 
> Back to the analysis, the final leg up did complete on the 23rd with 5 waves up, forming a Irregular flat correction, where wave c doesn't recover the ground of wave b. However, there's still an outside chance that the wave ii correction hasn't yet completed and today's low (a very low volume day) actually marked the end of the b wave as shown in the alternate count in blue. Even if the alternate count comes into play it's doubtful that wave c will recover all of wave b and will probably form a irregular flat correction - five clear waves up from today's low will prove the alternate count.
> 
> The preferred wave count is down, although clear 5 waves down from the wave ii high is yet to unfold to validate the next short term moves. Ultimately the longer term count on the XAO is still extremely bearish with 3rd waves usually the most aggressive esp at several degrees (in this case wave 3 of 3)




Hi OzWaveGuy

As mentioned earlier I'm relatively new to EW, but I've been studying it up mighty hard particularly the last couple of days because I just felt something wasn't right with the larger degree count I adopted from previous Ew'ers more experienced than me. 

Since you are the most recent EW posting I'll relate my thoughts to your chart. I originally had my wave (i) or A where you have to make an ABC zig zag pattern (that most were talking about), but I have since changed my mind... partly because B retraces more than 50% of A which seems more like a Flat. 

I thought your placement of wave* i* back in last Oct was not exactly in the right place, ie that it should have been a bit lower down... but then I realised you may be calling a little diag triangle followed by an expanded flat and calling wave *v* of *(i)* an impulse for the wave *(i)* to be an impulse. I'm inclined to see *v* as an abc, which would make it an (invalid) diag triangle because *i* and *iv* don't come within 10% of overlapping. I'm curious about your thoughts there.

I think I'm more comfortable with the following... an (a) (b) (c) expanded flat which looks like panning out for (c) up to make wave *2 *or a *(1)* to *(5)* diag triangle to make a wave *(5)* around recent lows to make *1*

PS: My charts were from yesterdays close.


----------



## kotim (1 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers, Make Elliot as plain as can be and if it does not set out like an easy Elliot then the chances are that you will be wrong.

The first wave down is a clear 5 wave structure, there is then an ABC structure up and now we are down.  In Wave structure think alternation and as we can see the first wave down was 5 waves we can expect the C wave down to be a three wave structure.  In other words if the A wave is 5 waves then we can expect the c wave to be 3 waves.

At least that is my belief, the only other problem with Elliot is trying to work out in what cycle your in. 

Anyway good luck to everyone who trades


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers you are making the same mistake that every newb makes IMHO. Failing to become an expert and testing before implementing. It really is a joke!!

It happens time and time again. Someone finds something that on the first look seems like the holy grail or that resonates with them then they spend a couple of weeks reading up every thing they can. And hit the ground running. But from all my observations of expertise, especially in trading, the MAIN ingredient is practise. Hundreds of hours of it.

If you are trading off this tripe you are posting I would, IMHO, say you are in the same class as the dudes that post in the beginners threads about trading fulltime without actually testing or doing anything to justify their confidence in their own abilities.

But any way carry on.  I got to give it to you its entertaining if nothing else.


----------



## Whiskers (1 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Whiskers you are making the same mistake that every newb makes IMHO. Failing to become an expert and testing before implementing. It really is a joke!!
> 
> It happens time and time again. Someone finds something that on the first look seems like the holy grail or that resonates with them then they spend a couple of weeks reading up every thing they can. And hit the ground running. But from all my observations of expertise, especially in trading, the MAIN ingredient is practise. Hundreds of hours of it.
> 
> ...




Hey, what do ya mean 'tripe'... I have already posted my illustrious results : and didn't I tell ya beware of pot holes... it's not the bottom fallin outa the market. 

TH, I take it you have no faith in EW. 

EW certainly is not the first nor the critical tool for my decision making.

Yes I do use it as a range finder to assist my trading quite well. I rely on FA first other TA then see how EW lines up or not. 

As you know people post to get insight from others, a bit of fun, boost their ego , ramp or whatever.

Basically I'm sharing 'intelligence'  to collectively find the right path of the market.


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> TH, I take it you have no faith in EW.



 Its not EW I have no faith in. It is people who are experts after a couple of weeks using something that I find a bit bemusing.

Thats all.


----------



## Whiskers (1 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Its not EW I have no faith in. It people who are experts after a couple of weeks using something that I find a bit bemusing.
> 
> Thats all.




Oh, gee TH... it must be at least six months now... and I'm still on 'L' or 'P' plates or somthin. Can't call me an expert. That's why I'm sticking it out there for critique... or to be proved correrct.


----------



## white_goodman (1 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Oh, gee TH... it must be at least six months now... and I'm still on 'L' or 'P' plates or somthin. Can't call me an expert. That's why I'm sticking it out there for critique... or to be proved correrct.




yeh dont be a dick about it, only be a dick if hes saying it is correct. If he wants some help to see if its right whats the harm in helping him out...

whiskers from a beginner it looks okish to me, i dont really like EW tho


----------



## tech/a (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

To me the practical application of ANY form of analysis is far more important.

Attempting to label any complex corrective wave down to the most minor of timeframes is --to me---quite pointless.
If you understand Elliott you'll realise there are often different counts---each as valid as the other until proven incorrect.

Ive been trading this count for months.




Set me up very well for shorts off the wave 4 high---still have one NWS open.
The is no eveidence yet that this count is not currently valid.
*My view is many here are attempting to find counts which suit their view of NEWS and FUNDAMENTALS,rather than letting the analysis play out.*

Who cares if today is a minor wave "C"
The most important thing is being on the correct side of a move,my timeframe is higher and longer than T/Hs and if you were trading a lower timeframe then if you had R/T Elliott wave *youd be using 5 min or so Elliott analysis to trade these timeframes NOT DAILY!* To get on the right side of the market.
I'll bet there was a wave 5 end on the day before yesterday in many of the lower timeframes.(Cant confirm this as I dont have R/T but I do know someone who has so will get a chart or 3 and see!).

*Incidently the chart above is currently showing a wave 5 of 5 or the "Possible" end of this move.
Yet to be confirmed as it could extend lower.*


----------



## brty (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech,

Why do you have the May high marked Sept 1st on your chart???

brty


----------



## tech/a (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> Tech,
> 
> Why do you have the May high marked Sept 1st on your chart???
> 
> brty




Hmm must be a typo.


----------



## Porper (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> Whiskers, Make Elliot as plain as can be and if it does not set out like an easy Elliot then the chances are that you will be wrong.




I agree here, simple is good.It is impossible to trade double zig zags, triple 3's etc in my experience.



kotim said:


> Wave structure think alternation and as we can see the first wave down was 5 waves we can expect the C wave down to be a three wave structure.  In other words if the A wave is 5 waves then we can expect the c wave to be 3 waves.




T/H is right here, people are trying to trade off E.Wave (in this case) without having a firm understanding.

The above quote just an example.Wave C cannot be 3 waves, always 5 as it is an impulse wave.It can be a diagonal but we won't go there.

Alternation as an example would be wave 2 being a zig zag, so in theory wave 4 should be a flat or complex pattern.


----------



## Whiskers (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> To me the practical application of ANY form of analysis is far more important.
> 
> Attempting to label any complex corrective wave down to the most minor of timeframes is --to me---quite pointless.
> If you understand Elliott you'll realise there are often different counts---each as valid as the other until proven incorrect.




Not sure it's pointless tech/a, because surely while the lower degree waves are guided by the higher degree, they can forewarn (especially when corroberated by other analysis) of any deviation from the most likely path... but again I suppose it depends on the time frame one trades.

I monitor my stocks and indicies hourly as well for entry and exit points but don't normally count EW hourly... just as an example the hourly of the XAO looks likely to come back a bit more from here... supported by other indicators and charts not shown... pending later developments  that may sway it.

PS: tech/a, I'm curious... I see you have a 3 in green box at top of chart. Did you start that five count from the Aug low and if so why?


----------



## OzWaveGuy (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Not sure it's pointless tech/a, because surely while the lower degree waves are guided by the higher degree, they can forewarn (especially when corroberated by other analysis) of any deviation from the most likely path... but again I suppose it depends on the time frame one trades.
> 
> I monitor my stocks and indicies hourly as well for entry and exit points but don't normally count EW hourly... just as an example the hourly of the XAO looks likely to come back a bit more from here... supported by other indicators and charts not shown... pending later developments  that may sway it.
> 
> PS: tech/a, I'm curious... I see you have a 3 in green box at top of chart. Did you start that five count from the Aug low and if so why?




Right, it all depends on time scales your interested in trading with. However, smaller degrees will help confirm the larger degrees you're interested in. Hourly charts give a wealth of info and most chart packages let you see a fair bit of data. Also, I find changing the view to a line v's bar chart can provide more clarity on the patterns forming.


----------



## deadset (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So what is going to happen tomorrow ? , this is the first time in a long time that I can say I honestly have no idea of what possible trends may be.

Anyone willing to say now what they think may happen ?  

I can see things going either way, there's been a bit of a build up in anticipation already.  

I've pretty much sold off lately.  I'm more concerned about the compounding of any negative news right now.  

I think I'll just put my news blinkers on and concentrate on the actual prices tomorrow.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Same old pattern.

Up in the morning then down in the arvo

OR

Down in the morning up in the arvo......


----------



## OzWaveGuy (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Hi OzWaveGuy
> 
> As mentioned earlier I'm relatively new to EW, but I've been studying it up mighty hard particularly the last couple of days because I just felt something wasn't right with the larger degree count I adopted from previous Ew'ers more experienced than me.
> 
> ...




Hi Whiskers,

The wave ii from Nov last year is most likely an expanded flat, not unusual for wave ii positions. As far as the rest of the analysis, it's very similar to tech/a's graph, although my analysis differs in that it shows we're into wave (iii) down already. Ideally i'd like to see 5 waves play up from here to confirm the expanded flat before heading back down as opposed to the c wave in the current count. Interestingly the Alt wave b has taken almost exactly the same time to develop as wave a has in the expanded flat scenario, so a good time relationship there - time will tell if the alt count plays out 

It does look like the XAO is completing 5 waves up today with a correction to finish it off. However, i'd like to see 4923 breached to confirm it. cheers


----------



## Nyden (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't think we'll see a rally of any sort for the US in the coming days; just because I believe that the bailout is/was already priced in. It was already priced in when the DOW plummeted the other day; and that was why it plummeted ... because the expectation failed to eventuate. 

The way I see it; DOW will either plummet, or stay flat  (I'm leaning more towards heavy losses)
Heck, the US markets may still plummet even after bailout goes through; just because it might start to sink in just how serious this all is? Either that, or a lot of people are just waiting for the good news to sell into ... all being the clever bunnies they are 


 ... should be explanatory where I believe the XAO to be headed then, since we pretty much follow the US markets lately.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



deadset said:


> So what is going to happen tomorrow ? , this is the first time in a long time that I can say I honestly have no idea of what possible trends may be.
> 
> Anyone willing to say now what they think may happen ?
> 
> ...




It's a tough call at the moment as there's not a confirmed short term trend on the XAO. 

However, what I can say is that the S&P500 futures looks to be consolidating into a triangle pattern, which if breached to the upside could take the index to around 1200 or more. If the triangle pattern is confirmed, then there may be few days of upside momentum before resuming the downtrend (triangles appearing in corrective positions imply the main trend will resume shortly after being breached). 

This would imply further upside activity in the short term on the XAO and fits with a possible small 5 wave pattern up today.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> Whiskers, Make Elliot as plain as can be and if it does not set out like an easy Elliot then the chances are that you will be wrong.
> 
> The first wave down is a clear 5 wave structure, there is then an ABC structure up and now we are down.  In Wave structure think alternation and as we can see the first wave down was 5 waves we can expect the C wave down to be a three wave structure.  In other words if the A wave is 5 waves then we can expect the c wave to be 3 waves.
> 
> ...




To help clarify, wave alternation is where waves will differ in type and usually time eg: if wave 2 is a zig-zag, then wave 4 could be a triangle or a flat and can also apply in corrections esp triangles, hence seeing these helps patterns confirm the count

In terms of a, b and c waves in corrections and their structure there are rules on how they are to treated eg: 5-3-5 (zig-zag), 3-3-5 (flat), 3-3-3-3-3 (triangle), so swapping a 5 with a 3 and vice-versa isn't a valid method. Corrections are the most difficult to predict and where most EW analysis fails is in their interpretation, esp when double and triple flats and zig-zags are forming. I think Glenn Neely does a smashing job at covering corrections and their formation


----------



## chops_a_must (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> I don't think we'll see a rally of any sort for the US in the coming days; just because I believe that the bailout is/was already priced in. It was already priced in when the DOW plummeted the other day; and that was why it plummeted ... because the expectation failed to eventuate.
> 
> The way I see it; DOW will either plummet, or stay flat  (I'm leaning more towards heavy losses)
> Heck, the US markets may still plummet even after bailout goes through; just because it might start to sink in just how serious this all is? Either that, or a lot of people are just waiting for the good news to sell into ... all being the clever bunnies they are
> ...




You have learnt a heap in 12 months Nyden. 

Those expecting a rally would already be in, it's not exactly a hidden secret - so what happens when it passes and people use it to start selling into? However, the market does some crazy things. 

I'm leaning towards the next tank being near option expiry. Just a guess really.


----------



## Porper (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> I think Glenn Neely does a smashing job at covering corrections and their formation




I think you are referring to "Mastering Elliot Wave" by Neely, errrrrrrrrrrr Ozwaveguy 

If you came out of Cambridge or Oxford university then you may understand half of that book.Monowaves and polywaves, not for me.

There is some good stuff , but most of it you can get free at Elliot wave international i.m.o.

Anyway way off topic.

My count stays the same until wave 2 high is broken and it is proved incorrect.Even if it is, we should only get another test of the highs in the recent consolidation range, then impulse down again.


----------



## IFocus (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Sigh. Can we just have *one* bloody green day? The US has been having quite a few of them! Whole world was up, but the good ol' ASX has to buck the trend  When did Australian investors become so nervous? What exactly is this based on?
> 
> The Australian economy is in fair shape, we have good fundamentals, *we're* not going into a recession, & as far as I can see - base metals aren't plummeting. There's no logic here!
> 
> ...





Chops I was thinking the same remember this Nyden.............how do you feel?


----------



## OzWaveGuy (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> I think you are referring to "Mastering Elliot Wave" by Neely, errrrrrrrrrrr Ozwaveguy
> 
> If you came out of Cambridge or Oxford university then you may understand half of that book.Monowaves and polywaves, not for me.
> 
> ...




Agreed. If someone can take it all and dump it into a charting package - would be very cool -  it's a very heavy book . Having said that, there are several chapters on corrections that really help that EWI don't cover in any real depth.


----------



## Nyden (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Chops I was thinking the same remember this Nyden.............how do you feel?




Ha, well isn't that just a blast from the not-so-distant past 

Well right now I feel exhausted from a rather lengthy run! Healthy body, health mind - it's my latest resolution.

In all honesty though, I feel a little ... well I don't exactly have a word for it - strange, I guess; having people watch me grown and develop? : Quite pleased though at the fact that more seasoned inventors believe me to be coming along


----------



## dhukka (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Found this long term chart of the VIX for those interested.


----------



## BentRod (2 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Great Chart Duk.


----------



## jaithomson (4 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What s everyone leaning towards in for the ASx200 on Monday?

Would we see a decline or inscreast in price...>


----------



## tech/a (4 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I reckon it will be that bad they will take a holiday.


----------



## Porper (4 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> What s everyone leaning towards in for the ASx200 on Monday?
> 
> Would we see a decline or inscreast in price...>




You would have to bet on weakness.

Looking at the chart you can only conclude that we are set for another strong down leg.

That is how I am set up anyway.Short, follow the trend.


----------



## Sean K (5 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> What s everyone leaning towards in for the ASx200 on Monday?
> 
> Would we see a decline or inscreast in price...



Jai, Why does just about every post of yours end in a question mark?

Why not add in your own thoughts?

Do you think a 1.5% drop on the DJI is a positive or negative lead?

Or do you think any other news announced since the close might turn it around?

Or, what`s you TA telling you?

kennas


----------



## NZTurtle (5 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Quite pleased though at the fact that more seasoned *inventors *believe me to be coming along



I'm hoping thats a typo
I can't see any strength coming to the fore in the next couple of weeks. Trend is down, high uncertainty so there will be a continuation of downwards drift (and thats a positive perspective...) into a period of consolidation...
Sorry, I can't justify this heavily but it is just some thoughts from what I see and read.
Still be the odd star and value pick


----------



## Nyden (5 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



NZTurtle said:


> I'm hoping thats a typo
> I can't see any strength coming to the fore in the next couple of weeks. Trend is down, high uncertainty so there will be a continuation of downwards drift (and thats a positive perspective...) into a period of consolidation...
> Sorry, I can't justify this heavily but it is just some thoughts from what I see and read.
> Still be the odd star and value pick




Think you misquoted me, I'm a complete bear at the moment. None of my posts for months have said anything about a market going up over anything above the short term :

Oh, I misinterpreted you! Yes, it was a typo - meant to be investors, of course  I should hardly think we have many invetors around here :


----------



## jaithomson (5 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

:ald:







kennas said:


> Jai, Why does just about every post of yours end in a question mark?
> 
> Why not add in your own thoughts?
> 
> ...





It ends in a question mark as it a question.... Just like the 5 QUESTIONS you just asked. Pretty straight foward really.


----------



## Struzball (5 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> :ald:
> It ends in a question mark as it a question.... Just like the 5 QUESTIONS you just asked. Pretty straight foward really.




LOL, I think you're missing the point there a little.


----------



## tech/a (5 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Struzball said:


> LOL, I think you're missing the point there a little.





Actually I think he answered it perfectly and Id be suprised if Kennas doesnt agree!
I'm sure you see my point Struzball.


----------



## tex.willer (5 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No money available to leverage, not bull run.

All the way down till we deleverage properly. Even then, it will be "save to invest", not "borrow to invest" for quite some time.

With some exceptions, most of the stocks will be grinding up once the bear has gone to hibernation.


----------



## Sean K (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Actually I think he answered it perfectly and Id be suprised if Kennas doesnt agree!
> I'm sure you see my point Struzball.



I agree, a question does end in a question mark, and I too have failed to add any value to this thread recently.


----------



## Logique (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

An XAO Fibonacci retracement hypothetical. Any mathematicians on board. I'm not a mathematician.

OK let's see.  Feb 2003 = 2800 ; Oct 2007 = 6750 ; Leg = 3950 
Retracement by Fibonacci ratios 21 34 55 89 144: 

6750 - (% of 3950)
21% = 5920
34% = 5407
55% = 4577
89% = 3234
144% = 1062

Other ratios I have seen used
66% = 4143
78% = 3669

If only it was so simple. Many other macro economic are factors in operation. I had thought somewhere between 4000 to 4500 for the downleg, but perhaps need to start thinking about 3500 to 4000.


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> An XAO Fibonacci retracement hypothetical. Any mathematicians on board. I'm not a mathematician.
> 
> OK let's see.  Feb 2003 = 2800 ; Oct 2007 = 6750 ; Leg = 3950
> Retracement by Fibonacci ratios 21 34 55 89 144:
> ...




Well, if we stay in the Big Bad Bear Cave for long enough, the long term trend might just fit that range...


----------



## tech/a (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> I had thought somewhere between 4000 to 4500 for the downleg, but perhaps need to start thinking about 3500 to 4000.




If trading breaks below these levels of 4200 ish then yes.


----------



## GreatPig (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think over that time frame, the XAO makes more sense with a semi-log scale.

In the charts below, the lower red line is currently around 3850, but could be around 4000 or so when prices reach it if the current downward trend continues at about the same slope.

GP


----------



## OzWaveGuy (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The XAO continues to drive down, and should now become more aggressive now that it is has entered Wave iii of (iii). The previous alternate count for  wave c completing wave ii should be well and truly out of the picture. 

There was some discussion last week that wave (IV) up in the diagram appeared to be impulsive (5 waves) that would have allowed further upside potential. It turned out not to be the case, and if fact was a double zig-zag correction. One giveaway (after further analysis) was the wave structures in wave (IV) operate very tightly between parallel lines - pointing to a corrective wave versus an impulse wave. Almost all impulse waves fall outside the parallel lines quite considerably. In many cases what looks like a "perfect" elliott wave where all points (5) touch the parallel lines are in fact double (or triple) corrective waves.

In the short term, Wave (V) appears to be subdividing and will become the extended wave count,  suggesting further downside action before a correction plays out and will form wave II circle up. The aggressive downtrend will then continue (for some time).


----------



## chops_a_must (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well... it went down more softly than a soccer player today.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I thought I'd post some longer term outlook charts using Elliottwave on the XAO. If anyone else has a view, pls post if possible

Chart 1 shows the logic used in predicting the Medium term outlook, but using the bull leg from early 2003 to show wave relationships. Charts 2 and 3 assume that wave 3 is the extended wave (as it usually is).

Chart 2 shows the outlook based on the completed wave (ii)

Chart 3 further refines the outlook using completed wave ii of a lower degree


----------



## OzWaveGuy (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> I thought I'd post some longer term outlook charts using Elliottwave on the XAO. If anyone else has a view, pls post if possible
> 
> Chart 1 shows the logic used in predicting the Medium term outlook, but using the bull leg from early 2003 to show wave relationships. Charts 2 and 3 assume that wave 3 is the extended wave (as it usually is).
> 
> ...




This should read "Chart 2 shows the outlook based on the completed wave 2" not wave (ii)


----------



## CamKawa (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Possibly finishing up at 1000? Gee and I thought I was bearish.


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

FTSE down 5%, DAX same, CAC craking 6%. US futs down 2.5%.

Makes me feel a little bullish. for opportunities of the bouncy type. :bounce:


----------



## GreatPig (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> Possibly finishing up at 1000? Gee and I thought I was bearish.



The yields should be good though, for whatever companies are left.

GP


----------



## chops_a_must (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Makes me feel a little bullish. for opportunities of the bouncy type. :bounce:



I agree. Any time is a good time to be chasing breasts.


----------



## kotim (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It is much more likley that this movement down will be an ABC with one of the down legs subidviding into a 5 wave movement and the other leg alternating with a 3 leg movement.  The problem with the above analysis is that ultimatley the 5 waves down would only be an a leg, so then we would have to have a b leg up and then some sort of c leg down again.  This is extemely unlikely givent he size of the ranges involved

Generally speaking it is a requirement that after 5 waves down the abc retracement must exceed the wave 4 high to be a able to be classified as an ABC retracement.  The high on 18 May exceeded the wave 4 high of the 5 waves down, therefor it is likely that 18 may 08 is the B wave high.

Anyway have a look at 4273 which is the 61.8 retrace of the bull run up, 4316 is the 1-1 ABC move down off the top, if we consider that the 18 May high is infact the B wave high.  I expect that this area will pull the market up, at least for a while and then we will see how it goes.

The strange thing is that whatever count end up being right, if we trully do get down to the low 3000's then we are going to have a humungus recession in Australia.  It would basically mean that as far as stocks are concerned everyone who lent on margin in the bull run up would have completely doen their capital.  When we start thinking about that it means that there would also have to be a horendous housing market slump because so much money was borrowed by investers against their property equity and the share equity they had.  

Personally I don't think it will happen but anything is possible.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> It is much more likley that this movement down will be an ABC with one of the down legs subidviding into a 5 wave movement and the other leg alternating with a 3 leg movement.  The problem with the above analysis is that ultimatley the 5 waves down would only be an a leg, so then we would have to have a b leg up and then some sort of c leg down again.  This is extemely unlikely givent he size of the ranges involved
> 
> Generally speaking it is a requirement that after 5 waves down the abc retracement must exceed the wave 4 high to be a able to be classified as an ABC retracement.  The high on 18 May exceeded the wave 4 high of the 5 waves down, therefor it is likely that 18 may 08 is the B wave high.
> 
> ...




Right, terrible times would lie ahead if the levels are reached  However, to your point, corrections tend to end in the price range of wave 4, hence a possible ending point is in the range of the 1987 low (which appears to play out in a multi-year triangle ending in Nov 1992).


----------



## Whiskers (6 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> FTSE down 5%, DAX same, CAC craking 6%. US futs down 2.5%.
> 
> Makes me feel a little bullish. for opportunities of the bouncy type. :bounce:






chops_a_must said:


> I agree. Any time is a good time to be chasing breasts.




Yep... starting to look like a breast, on the Dow at least!


----------



## Sean K (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> :ald:



So jai, is this some sort of Gann analysis here? 

I wonder where we'll go today?


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> So jai, is this some sort of Gann analysis here?
> 
> I wonder where we'll go today?




My No-Gann & Billy Elliot systems are signalling a rise............

From the early morning lows...... Now which one and what time....


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Actually very disappointed in that rally into the US close we had the set up of some real fear and give up when the dow was down 700 odd points.

Oh well. Now we get just another down day.


----------



## brty (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

TH,

Did you get any sleep last night??

It is relevant because I have noticed a change in my trading performance in the past due to a bit of sleep deprivation. 

Just something for all traders to be aware of in the age of 24 hour markets.

When performance changes and you start thinking it was just a bad day, it could be partially the sleep factor.

brty


----------



## dhukka (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Actually very disappointed in that rally into the US close we had the set up of some real fear and give up when the dow was down 700 odd points.
> 
> Oh well. Now we get just another down day.




Yeah that was disappointing, these orderly declines are becoming a little boring. Now if the RBA only goes 25 bps today and waffles on about inflation we could get another sell-off in the arvo.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> TH,
> 
> Did you get any sleep last night??
> 
> ...




LOL. Yep I'm pretty aware of the mind going nutz from lack of sleep. In a previous life I owned bakeries. Ive done my fair share of 36 hour shifts :bloated:

But when its raining cats and dogs from a cloud with a silver lining you got to make hay. :70:


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> My No-Gann & Billy Elliot systems are signalling a rise............
> 
> From the early morning lows...... Now which one and what time....




HA!!

Who said Voodoo doesn't work!!


----------



## skyQuake (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> HA!!
> 
> Who said Voodoo doesn't work!!




Ahahaha nice call. Did you manage to hold it?


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL


----------



## dhukka (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Now if the RBA only goes 25 bps today and waffles on about inflation we could get another sell-off in the arvo.




No waffling there, looks like the RBA are on the case. This is like watching the same movie over again, remember those euphoric Fed rate cuts? How effective were they in the end?


----------



## chops_a_must (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> No waffling there, looks like the RBA are on the case. This is like watching the same movie over again, remember those euphoric Fed rate cuts? How effective were they in the end?



We've bounced and run off about the area we should have IMO Dhukey.

Lots of support where the US markets are now as well. At the worst we'll get choppy trading for a little while here IMO.

First real area for having a nibble at bottom drawers for me...


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> No waffling there, looks like the RBA are on the case. This is like watching the same movie over again, remember those euphoric Fed rate cuts? How effective were they in the end?




This is obviously a classic pump and bump in the futs.

Criminal!! When is Kev 747 going to out-law buying the futs?? :


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The cut has also give the Nikkei, Kospi, as well as the little old market in the US a big kick along.

LoL tail waging the dogie.


----------



## TheAbyss (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Story going around that the big banks are working in unison to reduce rates world wide to improve the credit markets which is why the Aus Reserve reduced 1% instead of the anticipated .5%


----------



## Whiskers (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



TheAbyss said:


> Story going around that the big banks are working in unison to reduce rates world wide to improve the credit markets which is why the Aus Reserve reduced 1% instead of the anticipated .5%




Yeah, I've heard that too. We might finally get some meaningful international cordination gong here now to get out of this pothole.

Probably Aus was good place to start with our banks in better position than most... which brings me to...



OzWaveGuy said:


> The XAO continues to drive down, and should now become more aggressive now that it is has entered Wave iii of (iii). The previous alternate count for  wave c completing wave ii should be well and truly out of the picture.
> 
> There was some discussion last week that wave (IV) up in the diagram appeared to be impulsive (5 waves) that would have allowed further upside potential. It turned out not to be the case, and if fact was a double zig-zag correction. One giveaway (after further analysis) was the wave structures in wave (IV) operate very tightly between parallel lines - pointing to a corrective wave versus an impulse wave. Almost all impulse waves fall outside the parallel lines quite considerably. In many cases what looks like a "perfect" elliott wave where all points (5) touch the parallel lines are in fact double (or triple) corrective waves.
> 
> In the short term, Wave (V) appears to be subdividing and will become the extended wave count,  suggesting further downside action before a correction plays out and will form wave II circle up. The aggressive downtrend will then continue (for some time).





Hey, OzWaveGuy... a few days ago I contemplated a five count down leg too, but I'm still  leaning toward the Expanded Flat wave one reversal scenerio on my indicators.

Just looking at your chart what do you think about a zig zag wave b, ie wave b bottom about todays low?


----------



## nunthewiser (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> We've bounced and run off about the area we should have IMO Dhukey.
> 
> Lots of support where the US markets are now as well. At the worst we'll get choppy trading for a little while here IMO.
> 
> First real area for having a nibble at bottom drawers for me...




my call chops regardless if u want it or not ..........

this aint the bottom , we have not seen the low as yet BUT this SHOULD be a nice lil sucka rally , very tradeable very suckable ... 

not gunna call a base number as in my book its currently unforseeable BUT will stick neck and nuts out saying we havent seen it yet 

cheers 

a non bottom found nun


----------



## jaithomson (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I agree - put your shorts on boys, and we can all go for a surf tomozzo.


----------



## nunthewiser (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> I agree - put your shorts on boys, and we can all go for a surf tomozzo.




im not talking tommorow lets get that straight . im talking overall 

cheers big ears


----------



## chops_a_must (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> my call chops regardless if u want it or not ..........
> 
> this aint the bottom , we have not seen the low as yet BUT this SHOULD be a nice lil sucka rally , very tradeable very suckable ...
> 
> ...




I agree. But this 'should' be about the zone of a short term bottom. Long term trend lines point towards 3800-4000, but I have been playing to this area for nearly a year now...

Need to see how it reacts and what plays out from here, to know the next move...


----------



## nunthewiser (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> I agree. But this 'should' be about the zone of a short term bottom. Long term trend lines point towards 3800-4000, but I have been playing to this area for nearly a year now...
> 
> Need to see how it reacts and what plays out from here, to know the next move...




yep , make hay while the sun shines some mortgaged to the hilt farmer once told me


----------



## Porper (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The count is panning out nicely from the chart 2 weeks ago.

No reason to suspect it will deviate from here.

We are declining in a subwave 3 of 3 of the larger degree Wave  C.

Time wise I have this Thursday/Friday as significant.Also 31st October more so.
At this stage a possible short term bottom.

I have 3600 as a possible wave 3 or C bottom.

Of course I reserve the right to change the count in hindsight to suit whenever I please.


----------



## nunthewiser (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> The count is panning out nicely from the chart 2 weeks ago.
> 
> 
> Of course I reserve the right to change the count in hindsight to suit whenever I please.




 spoken like a true EW chartist 

lol cheers for ya view


----------



## Whiskers (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Time wise I have this Thursday/Friday as significant.




Did I read correctly somewhere the US going to lift the short selling ban on thursday?

PS: Aparently so. 



> US set to lift short-selling ban
> October 4, 2008 - 9:23AM
> 
> 
> The US Securities and Exchange Commission have said it would lift its temporary order banning short selling of financial shares next Thursday.http://news.theage.com.au/business/us-set-to-lift-shortselling-ban-20081004-4toz.html


----------



## Porper (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Did I read correctly somewhere the US going to lift the short selling ban on thursday?




What Ban ?

I have 4 short positions open on the NYSE.
2 opened last night.


----------



## ariesto (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Did I read correctly somewhere the US going to lift the short selling ban on thursday?




i dont think so
there is no such thing to lift hte short selling ban
as it would hurt the stock exchange more as Dow JOnes has fallen below 10k point


----------



## Whiskers (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> What Ban ?
> 
> I have 4 short positions open on the NYSE.
> 2 opened last night.




On financials?


----------



## M34N (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well there go the Dow futures down again, and SPI down again over 130 points.

And let the roller coaster continue!


----------



## Porper (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> On financials?




Wouldn't have a clue Whiskers.

I don't have any interest in what the company does when I trade (some exceptions).

If IB allows me to short my chosen stock then the trade goes ahead.


----------



## chops_a_must (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ariesto said:


> i dont think so
> there is no such thing to lift hte short selling ban
> as it would hurt the stock exchange more as Dow JOnes has fallen below 10k point



Lol.

I love that logic.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Yeah, I've heard that too. We might finally get some meaningful international cordination gong here now to get out of this pothole.
> 
> Probably Aus was good place to start with our banks in better position than most... which brings me to...
> 
> ...





From here, it probably wouldn't be an expanded flat anymore, but a Running Flat where waves A and C don't overlap. If the leg up from today turns into 3 waves up, then the current count stands. If the leg up from today turns into 5 waves up before heading down to new lows, then a running flat may be at hand.

The odds are remote that a larger flat is developing as the current count shows wave c almost = wave a (a and c waves in most flats will tend toward equality). Wave b is almost 161% of wave a which is another factor in why I've labeled the count as is. Hope this clarifies my current count


----------



## jaithomson (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So my only question for you now is - will the ASX 200 hit 4400 or below tonite..?


----------



## nunthewiser (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> So my only question for you now is - will the ASX 200 hit 4400 or below tonite..?




what do you think jai?


----------



## Whiskers (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Hope this clarifies my current count




Year, thanks... I understand your count and considered it, but for the moment there seems to be some positive MACD divergence holding up ok which I'm wondering if it's pointing to some stubborn price resistance breaking and a robust turnaround a-la a flat wave C.


----------



## jaithomson (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

um... I dont know.. Im a newbie to all this. Wave C, B.. gets me confused. Im just chasing your thoughts if it would hit that low tonite thats all....


----------



## nunthewiser (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> um... I dont know.. Im a newbie to all this. Wave C, B.. gets me confused. Im just chasing your thoughts if it would hit that low tonite thats all....





ok thats fair enough , but any reason why you think that number instead of a different number or upwards move ?


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> um... I dont know.. Im a newbie to all this. Wave C, B.. gets me confused. Im just chasing your thoughts if it would hit that low tonite thats all....





Jai just a hint. You are better off thinking about what to do if we rise above today or fall below today rather than trying to figure out if its going to actually do it or not. Predictions are a fun game but have nothing to do with making $$. Plans and action make $$.


----------



## jaithomson (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well its dropped 100 or so points already after market close today and the dow has been consistently down recently. I have a nasty sell position open at 4393 and we all now about the dreaded next day margin call... 

So I duess im really asking so I can sleep easy tonite, or not..


----------



## nunthewiser (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Jai just a hint. You are better off thinking about what to do if we rise above today or fall below today rather than trying to figure out if its going to actually do it or not. Predictions are a fun game but have nothing to do with making $$. Plans and action make $$.




spot on


----------



## jaithomson (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Im with ya - thats good advice much appreciated. I'm a little to agressive when it comes to buy\selling atm, but I really appreciate your input. 

As the market rose today, what is your next move..?


----------



## tech/a (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> Im with ya - thats good advice much appreciated. I'm a little to agressive when it comes to buy\selling atm, but I really appreciate your input.
> 
> As the market rose today, what is your next move..?




Jia you cant be serious hes given the answer above.

But perhaps I could hazzard a guess.

If it rises he will buy.
If it falls he will sell.

Fortunately as traders we dont have to place our trades tonight and hold them till tommorow night.
We can actually trade what the market gives us without actually CARING what its going to do tommorow,in the next hr or the next week!


----------



## jaithomson (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That is unless you get caught... with a short @ 4400..? You would be wanting to find other peoples opinions as to whether the Dow would increase\decrease tonite to try and clear the position, wouldnt you..?


----------



## skyQuake (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nope, if its underwater u should have been stopped out already. If its in the black, you chuck some trailing stops on and close a bit of the position depending where your targets are.

Whole new ball game if you're position trading/swing trading, but similar principles apply.


----------



## Whiskers (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This mineweb article relates particularly to potential for gold hoarding by the chinese... but it's interesting to note the suggestion that the chinese may still be net savers, ie with a bit of spare cash. 

Just gotta get them to throw a bit more our way and we should be alright. 

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=63918&sn=Detail


----------



## chops_a_must (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> This mineweb article relates particularly to potential for gold hoarding by the chinese... but it's interesting to note the suggestion that the chinese may still be net savers, ie with a bit of spare cash.
> 
> Just gotta get them to throw a bit more our way and we should be alright.



That's right Whiskers. We've just got to dig our way out of this hole.

We need to tell the Chinese to "dig up, stupid" for us.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> That is unless you get caught... with a short @ 4400..? You would be wanting to find other peoples opinions






Nah mate that's 200 points against you!! I carn't believe you are still holding that . That's is a bad trade. 

You have risked 200 points what is your target?? 3800??

Madness.


----------



## Whiskers (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> That's right Whiskers. We've just got to dig our way out of this hole.
> 
> We need to tell the Chinese to "dig up, stupid" for us.




Well, I'm not fussy how we do it, and that's how we've mostly done it... but my connotation was a little broader than that. Yer need to broarden yer perspective a bit to see the oppertunities, chops.

If they are net savers as opposed to net borrowers as is most of the west, then they surely are someone to keep close economic ties with to keep our economy moving. Afterall, they want something we have a good amount off apart from gold and iron ore most among the commodoties, there's education and tourism etc that we can sell to relieve them of some of their cash.


----------



## jaithomson (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Nah mate that's 200 points against you!! I carn't believe you are still holding that . That's is a bad trade.
> 
> You have risked 200 points what is your target?? 3800??
> 
> Madness.




My target is 4400, just so I can clear the position....fingers crossed...


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> My target is 4400, just so I can clear the position....fingers crossed...




Mate no wonder your asking fearful questions all the time. If you are trading with real $$, without this sounding like a personal attack, you have no friggin idea what you are doing.

STOP TRADING.

You have held a position that's been 300 odd points against you to just get back to break-even. Its not done this way. When you spew up this trade you need to go back to the drawing board and learn about stops and R:R.


----------



## Julia (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just in case people are thinking today's interest rate cut and the subsequent rally on the market means everything is just okey dokey out there, consider this on just one aspect of the European situation from Crikey.com today:



> Iceland remains the focus in Europe. Trading was suspended in banks, financial stocks and guaranteed bank deposits, joining Denmark, Ireland, Germany, Italy and Greece in doing so.
> 
> But banks heavily sold the citizens and businesses foreign currency loans at low interest rates in recent years (shades of our Swiss Loans Affair in the 1990s). The plunge in the kronor, the country's currency, has seen the size and cost of those loans balloon: the currency shed 20% last week alone after the bailout of the third largest bank, Glitnir.
> 
> ...


----------



## dhukka (7 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We've seen this movie before. In a climate of deleveraging, deflating asset prices across all classes and tight credit, rate cuts aren't much good for anything except dead cat bounces.


----------



## jaithomson (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thats what I thought. So eventually it will go back down past 4400....


----------



## skyQuake (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Before or after your margin calls? Or in the event of a sharp rally your broker liquidating the position on market?

Heed TH's advice. You're gonna lose sleep and possibly money sticking with your position.


----------



## jaithomson (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I can extend until this Thursday afternoon AUS time, should be ok....


----------



## chops_a_must (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

He gave you the best advice you are going to get.

Either take it on board and take some responsibility for yourself, and your own trading decisions, or stop asking questions for answers of what you want to hear.

Because until you do the former, no-one is going to care about giving you the latter.


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL. I have done enough damage today..... again!!

Happy trades everyone.


----------



## moXJO (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Jai in the event you get out of this unscathed( or even with a gain)I would probably take my finger off the button for a while and stop using the share market to gamble. Just remember sometimes luck will get you deeper in until you lose the lot. So don’t mistake getting lucky in a trade to it being equal to a good trade or you will simply be in the same position again in future

Having stops and a trading plan are vital. Otherwise you get exactly where you are now in the land of hope and pray.


----------



## Sean K (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> On my charts I had 8th August. I came about this date by counting 55 Fibonacci traded days forward from the 19 May high. Only problem is, I made a mistake as I counted 58 days forward which is the 8th August!!! The actual forecasted turn date was suppose to be 5th August which makes it BANG on right. FREAKY!!! The price target was 4691 and the market missed it by 130 odd points but it was close enough IMO. All this was forecasted from months earlier.
> 
> Wavepicker



I suppose 300 points and 2 months off isn't too bad either...

Freaky!


----------



## chops_a_must (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I suppose 300 points and 2 months off isn't too bad either...
> 
> Freaky!




Freaky enough to create how many new accounts Kennas?


----------



## Sean K (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Freaky enough to create how many new accounts Kennas?



I've lost count, but perhaps he's also related to Cramer who only a little while ago called a bottom and is now saying 7700 on the Dow is a real possibility.



He's a gem isn't he? 

I suppose the market's a slightly dynamic place at the moment and we should all be allowed to adjust our views on the run.... eeeeek!!


----------



## chops_a_must (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I've lost count, but perhaps he's also related to Cramer who only a little while ago called a bottom and is now saying 7700 on the Dow is a real possibility.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's a bit late for a five year plan...

If you're still there now, you'd have to look at what you would almost want to be buying anyway. He should be talking about options if he wants to lower people's risk profiles. Learning about options has been a godsend for me, when looking at the market now. Gives you a lot less fear and a big opportunity to hedge when buying through here.

FWIW, from a noob perspective, looks like volatility is being sold on all but things commodities...


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

S&P ASX futures currently [size=+1]down -266pts[/size]

$AU [size=+1]down 1.6c to $US .7061[/size]

Not sure last night's SuperUpbeat assessment of the Oz economy by our esteemed Swan Diver can sustain the sliver of green grass that yesterday poked it's head above the blood-stained desert floor.... metinks the on-going credit drought will out the real state of the economy.

How many more smug, smiling "experts" are we going to hear in our media spouting the guvmint line that "she's right mate - the lil' Aussie Bleeder is as fit as a Bondi Iceberg - none of these overseas Tsunamis can touch us".

IMO this tiny, tiny economy is hanging by a thread. In June 2008 according to ABS our *Net Foreign Debt To GDP Ratio* had grown alarmingly to a whopping *54%* (around 43% in 2002 and only 37% in 1996) and to top it off, the June figures showed *$AU1.07Trillion* of Net Foreign Liabilities. Since those figures, the $AU dollar has plummeted, so the situation now is far, far worse. We have to somehow fund that rapidly growing mountain of Foreign Liabilities with a plummeting dollar!

Sure, we are relatively ok as long as the gold silk thread (trademarked CHINA) doesn't snap. If it does, well - we ain't seen nuthin' yet.


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> yep , make hay while the sun shines some mortgaged to the hilt farmer once told me




looks like its gunna rain instead


----------



## korrupt_1 (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> looks like its gunna rain instead




you can still make hay when it rains 

another bounce today with high probability of global rate cuts?

never did I anticipate this much volatility!

Can someone update another VIX chart please? It must be really off the scales by now?


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> you can still make hay when it rains
> 
> another bounce today with high probability of global rate cuts?
> 
> ...




 gday Korupt and yes .my post was in regards to some other dribble i was posting last night  rain never stopped play here.

have a great day and enjoy the opportunitys which will definately present themselves around open


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bring on the *CAPITULATION *I say. All this hope is doing no good for the markets.

Its been the easiest play in the book, buying the gaps down but this time its different. I want BLOOD.

I want the Talking heads and investment guru's to start to talk about return off capital rather than long term return.

I want two or more really ugly closes instead of strong ones.

We may get that today. I don't think we have the same chance of a strong close. Then again just like Pavlov's dogs I know what the futs traders are going to do, buy the opening dips


----------



## tcoates (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Korrupt - here it is...

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX


----------



## brty (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

TH,

I think you are funny.

Jaithomson,

I've got a great game for you to play.

It is called pin the tail on the donkey.

But it is played on the cliff top.

You go first. I'll put the blindfold on you, spin you around 3 times and if you can place the tail correctly I'll give you a $100.

There is no cost to you whatsoever.

I'll just ease your burden by holding your wallet till you complete the task.

When you have won the first $100, the offer stands open to play as long as you like.

brty


----------



## nomore4s (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jaithomson said:


> That is unless you get caught... with a short @ 4400..? You would be wanting to find other peoples opinions as to whether the Dow would increase\decrease tonite to try and clear the position, wouldnt you..?




Man kissed on the @rse by a fairy again. Keep playing with fire and you'll get burnt.

On a more serious note, it will be interesting to see how today plays out.
I'm thinking we'll see some level of panic after last nights action in the US and yesterdays eurphoria at the rate cut, the close today will be telling.

Was watching the Today show this morning and Karl was talking about the interest rate cut and how it could serve as a blueprint for other countries to help stabilise the markets because of yesterdays bounce, and here I was thinking that the US had already been slashing rates


----------



## Whiskers (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Can someone update another VIX chart please? It must be really off the scales by now?




... we'll get over it though


----------



## tech/a (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If my name was Jai and I had a short on at 4400 and I had no idea what I was doing Id be *COVERING right NOW*


----------



## skyQuake (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> If my name was Jai and I had a short on at 4400 and I had no idea what I was doing Id be *COVERING right NOW*




Yep, you made money through sheer luck. Count your blessings and learn some risk management.


----------



## Sean K (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Good timing tech. Was about a bottom there.

For the moment...


----------



## white_goodman (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> If my name was Jai and I had a short on at 4400 and I had no idea what I was doing Id be *COVERING right NOW*




stop shouting its hurting my ears


----------



## amory (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> If my name was Jai and I had a short on at 4400 and I had no idea what I was doing Id be *COVERING right NOW*




morning.  but your name's John isn't it?  bet you didn't expect to find me still around, frankly I didn't either.  is that the XJO you are referring to?  meaning that the worst is now over?

seeing that we are in uncharted waters, I wouldn't argue with that.  but noticed something interesting.  contrary to expectation, the leading golds for once decided not to follow the Dow down, but to go up on the strength of a modest rise in the POG.  looks to me like they are expecting something important is yet to occur.  the only thing I can think of, short of total meltdown is a collapse of the USDollar.  if that's on the cards, then anything goes!!


----------



## tech/a (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Amory Yes same tech/a

No not calling a bottom.


----------



## amory (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

e.g. why not BHP at $25?  you wouldn't have to go all that far back on your monthly chart, in fact one might say we are within cooee now!  yes those Golds today, sure makes you wonder about the XAO.  4100 to 4200 should do the trick.

which in turn, depends on the course of the DowJones.


----------



## wildthing (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Can someone update another VIX chart please? It must be really off the scales by now?[/QUOTE]


----------



## MRC & Co (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Remember people, it's not 'timing the market', it's 'time in the market'.  

Just ask those in the US in 1890 or those who 'invested' in the Nikkei 20 years ago when it was 400% higher than it is today.  

Can a whole lot of lazy cliches be thrown out of the window?  Or is it time to throw financial planners out the window?  Perhaps both.....


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Japanese traders didn't like their sushi for lunch??

They came back from lunch and turned the nasty sell switch on. 

This close will be interesting .................... I thunk!!


----------



## sam76 (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> The Japanese traders didn't like their sushi for lunch??
> 
> They came back from lunch and turned the nasty sell switch on.
> 
> This close will be interesting .................... I thunk!!







4:04pm 10/07/2008


TM 68.54, -4.84, -6.6%) consolidated operating profit for the fiscal year ending in March is expected to decline 40% from its earlier forecast as the global financial crisis dampens global auto demand and higher commodity prices squeeze margins, according to a Japanese media report Wednesday. Toyota's consolidated operating profit is likely to amount to 1.3 trillion yen ($12.9 billion), down from its earlier forecast of 1.6 trillion yen, the Nikkei newspaper reported, without citing its source. The automaker is likely to have trouble achieving its global sales target of 9.5 million units, or about 25 trillion yen, because of falling demand in the U.S. and slower growth in China, the report said. Toyota's North American sales are likely to shrink to under 14 million units, from 16 million units a year earlier. Toyota shares were down 6.2% in late morning Tokyo trading. 

could be a a part of it.


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nah, definitely bad fish.:crap:........


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Nah, definitely bad fish.:crap:........




Sh-ushi!! You'll wake the Kidz in America.....


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

overdue a bounce has bought accordingly 

my post is not to be flowed just calling it as im playing it 

all trades taken with losses in mind and all trades done with disciplined stoploss points in mind , gaps thru them go to plan b


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Bring on the *CAPITULATION *I say. All this hope is doing no good for the markets.
> 
> Its been the easiest play in the book, buying the gaps down but this time its different. I want BLOOD.
> 
> ...






Trembling Hand said:


> This close will be interesting .................... I thunk!!




To continue on my shameless self-promotion......

Death of the dip buyer???

Maybe not yet but very interesting finish to the day.

Bring on the bloody fight tonight!!


----------



## chops_a_must (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> To continue on my shameless self-promotion......
> 
> Death of the dip buyer???
> 
> ...



When the defensive stocks are copping a bath, selling chucked at anything with strength... hmmm... Must be getting close to an all out capitulation.


----------



## white_goodman (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> When the defensive stocks are copping a bath, selling chucked at anything with strength... hmmm... Must be getting close to an all out capitulation.




lets hope so, hope my pay check has come in by that time 

4200 still the target for all you billy elliots?


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Excellent news! All Ords *only* *DOWN 228 pts* or *-5%*.

Obviously the much vaunted RATE CUT has prevented a rout.

Come out ye BULLS!


----------



## Sunburnt Land (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I've been waiting patiently (anxiously!) for a decent capitulation too, although I have dipped my toe in the water a few times in the past week.

Even though the All Ords is at its lowest in years, many of the blue chips are still over 10% above their recent lows. 

I'm buying if any of the big banks or insurers start testing their 52 week lows.


----------



## Porper (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> ].
> 
> 
> Come out ye BULLS!




I think you will be lucky.

This ain't the bottom, not by a long way.

We aren't going to just turn around either.Too much damage has been done now.

When we bottom I think we will drift aimlessly for a long time.


----------



## chops_a_must (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> I think you will be lucky.
> 
> This ain't the bottom, not by a long way.
> 
> ...



The journalists astound me.

"We all know that after these downturns, the market just gets back to normal." ad nauseam.

It's ludicrous, and ignores the fact that after these sorts of moves, a whole heap of companies are usually completely finished.

So much capital has been destroyed, and leverage taken away, we just aren't going to get prolonged rebounding moves.


----------



## tcoates (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

chops,



> "We all know that after these downturns, the market just gets back to normal." ad nauseam.




Not sure what you are reading but all I can see at the moment are quotes like



> "The global growth story deteriorates by the day," Colonial First State Global Management head of investment market research Hans Kunnen said. "It is across-the-board fear that economic conditions will get seriously worse. It is capitulation."
> 
> 
> (source: http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24464974-3122,00.html)





Might be close, but I cannot see the volume to support that as yet.


Tim


----------



## CamKawa (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> When we bottom I think we will drift aimlessly for a long time.



Quite possibly and we may go back to good old dividend investing.


----------



## chops_a_must (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoates said:


> chops,
> Not sure what you are reading but all I can see at the moment are quotes like



More hearing on the idiot box.


----------



## dhukka (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunburnt Land said:


> I've been waiting patiently (anxiously!) for a decent capitulation too, although I have dipped my toe in the water a few times in the past week.
> 
> Even though the All Ords is at its lowest in years, many of the blue chips are still over 10% above their recent lows.
> 
> I'm buying if any of the big banks or insurers start testing their 52 week lows.




Good point, even at current levels the stockmarket is not cheap given the deteriorating earnings picture. In addition to the banks, none of the retailers that I'm watching such as TRS and JBH are even close to revisiting their previous lows, in fact they didn't even touch yesterday's lows.


----------



## Porper (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just looking at the charts, the Dow has lost 33%, ASX 41%.

I would say we need to get to at least 50% before any sort of bottom is formed.

This is purely my "feeling".

This would also play out using Elliot/Fib projections.

We have probably gone down too far to have a crash now, but you never know.

It would suit me better to have a large fall, and it would draw a line in the sand.


----------



## MrBurns (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Just looking at the charts, the Dow has lost 33%, ASX 41%.
> 
> I would say we need to get to at least 50% before any sort of bottom is formed.
> 
> ...




I think you're right in your average garden variety recession but I think this
may be a bit different.

I dont think we'll be done til the banks are hanging on by their teeth and BHP and RIO are relegated to junk bond status. (Thank you China)


----------



## mayk (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am now waiting for capitulation. Sad, I know. Setting quite low limit buy orders for some good fundamental stocks (mostly blue chip around 20% below their recent lows). Anyone else doing the same? Of course this question is directed to Investors/partial trader (with long term time frame 3-5 years).


----------



## Sunburnt Land (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mayk said:


> I am now waiting for capitulation. Sad, I know. Setting quite low limit buy orders for some good fundamental stocks (mostly blue chip around 20% below their recent lows). Anyone else doing the same? Of course this question is directed to Investors/partial trader (with long term time frame 3-5 years).




Take ANZ for example. 52 wk low of $15.07. 20% below this = $12.06.
Or QBE. 52 wk low of $19.50. 20% below this = $15.60.

I don't think I've got the patience to wait til these lows til I buy in, IF they eventuate.


----------



## tcoates (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

More useless stats...

* we are sitting just above the quarterly pivot (to Sep 30) at 4349. (So... presently obeying pivot points)

* though we closed below the 3 year S1 (using standard pivot point formulas)  2 days ago, the next day we closed above. Today we went straight through. XAO had previously passed the 1 year pivot support (seems so long ago now)

* 5 year S1 (year ending Dec 07) is at 3767. 

Will it get down that far? (It ain't looking up yet)

Tim


----------



## awg (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

one thing I have learned on ASF, is to look for a CATALYST preceding direction.

The catalyst i see is the almost complete breakdown of the OTC derivative system.

As noted in other threads, it is monumental in size, I have not seen any indication from any poster, on how this may be even remotely resolved.

( I did pose the question)...any clues?..gurus please reply


----------



## mayk (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



awg said:


> one thing I have learned on ASF, is to look for a CATALYST preceding direction.
> 
> The catalyst i see is the almost complete breakdown of the OTC derivative system.
> 
> ...



As far as I am aware, US FED reserve is trying to set up a centralized counter where they can be traded. I think FED inclusion might make some matters smooth and trust worthy.


----------



## mayk (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunburnt Land said:


> Take ANZ for example. 52 wk low of $15.07. 20% below this = $12.06.
> Or QBE. 52 wk low of $19.50. 20% below this = $15.60.
> 
> I don't think I've got the patience to wait til these lows til I buy in, IF they eventuate.




Well, look at the recent capitulation in January. Every thing went flat down, all sense and reasoning went out the window. It was the scariest day of all (YET!), if you ask me of this year on ASX.


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mayk said:


> Well, look at the recent capitulation in January. Every thing went flat down, all sense and reasoning went out the window. It was the scariest day of all if you ask me of this year on ASX.




Hmmm. Not IMO. In January, the World Economic Experts still had BUCKET loads of magic tricks to throw at the giant [size=+2]*Stay Puft Man*[/size] careering towards them.

Now, after throwing practically EVERYTHING (including the kitchen sink) at that sticky sucker, ol' [size=+2]*Stay Puft*[/size] is lurching ever closer. The Fed could do worse than call [size=+1]*Gho$tBu$ter$*[/size]!!! :22_yikes:


----------



## tech/a (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Remember when you could buy a house and rent it out and make a profit without any problem in the world.We just kept it for 5 yrs and made a motza.

Well it wont be long and loading up on quality stock will give you exactly the same result.
This sort of pullback only occurs once in 20+ years and only becuase the system HAS to change.

Once changed and if your set----you wont have to worry about retirement.

*Skin the volatility or ride the value.*


----------



## moXJO (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have recieved emails (asking me to subscribe*free email*)from Invest 4 profit and the chartist saying 4200 is the bottom. Am I missing some good news from somewhere?


----------



## MS+Tradesim (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting point we're at....semi-log back as far as my data goes:


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> I have recieved emails (asking me to subscribe)from Invest 4 profit and the chartist saying 4200 is the bottom. Am I missing some good news from somewhere?




..... no offense to anyone , BUT some chartists have been calling the bottom from 6200 down  gotta be right someday hey  me personally will wait till a confirmed reversal and maybe miss a cupla bucks before i jump back in with both feet .
my post is not directed at some here as many here have called this correction from the start not afterwards like so many great chartists do 

quite happy trading the volatility and panic in the meantime tho


----------



## moXJO (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> quite happy trading the volatility and panic in the meantime tho




Yes I am happy enough trading the volatility atm. Is there some significance with 4200 for EW or something?


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> Yes I am happy enough trading the volatility atm. Is there some significance with 4200 for EW or something?




I think afew in here use EW to its full extent , better off asking them , tech/a, whiskers,ozwaveguy, cupla others spring to mind 

cheers


----------



## Whiskers (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> I think afew in here use EW to its full extent , better off asking them , tech/a, whiskers,ozwaveguy, cupla others spring to mind
> 
> cheers




Heavens above, nunthewiser... I get into enough trouble around here without you nominating me as an exponent of EW. :

It's natural justice to allow anyone an "L" plate, but I'm havin the damn'dst trouble getting my accreditation even raised to "P" plate status. 

But anyway, I've been busy lookin around for signs... oil is past the point of no return, new lows and much more to come. That will obviously enable the world to recover quickly, as soon as the credit problems are resolved.

Not certain yet, but porper also noted thursday/friday as a significant period.

My intuition of all the markets is there is one hell-of-a-rebound about to unleash.

My intuition is that the trigger will come from England on thursday/friday.


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL i didnt say u guys were right i just said ya used it more trhoroughly :
he asked an EW sorta question , better u guys answering than me giving a bogans eye view on it  i cant pronounce the lingo .

gotta love that gold price eh 

cheers


----------



## chops_a_must (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> ..... no offense to anyone , BUT some chartists have been calling the bottom from 6200 down  gotta be right someday hey  me personally will wait till a confirmed reversal and maybe miss a cupla bucks before i jump back in with both feet .
> my post is not directed at some here as many here have called this correction from the start not afterwards like so many great chartists do
> 
> quite happy trading the volatility and panic in the meantime tho



Whiskers is the only one I can think of really, TBH.


Whiskers said:


> My intuition of all the markets is there is one hell-of-a-rebound about to unleash.
> 
> My intuition is that the trigger will come from England on thursday/friday.



Lol... and you've said the same thing for 1900 points! You've ridden it the whole way down!



tech/a said:


> Remember when you could buy a house and rent it out and make a profit without any problem in the world.We just kept it for 5 yrs and made a motza.
> 
> Well it wont be long and loading up on quality stock will give you exactly the same result.
> This sort of pullback only occurs once in 20+ years and only becuase the system HAS to change.
> ...



Agree Tech, and I have been waiting nearly 12 months for this period in time.

The problem is though, which companies are you going to target? You can't really tell which ones are going to go bust.

The categories listed in importance I have are:
Low debt.
Dividend paying.
Liquid options.
Defensive and low risk sectors.

Beyond that I am really struggling to be able to look at what is going to be a good buy over time.

I like some of the industrials and commodities, but they are going to be bottoming over a longer time frame IMO...


----------



## noident (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just re-read posts for 18/01/2008 through 24/01/2008.
Educational...

What strikes me though is the fact that when the rally started many couldn't believe it would last for more than a day and many placed shorts on everything that moved up.
I wonder, with shorts banned these days, what the rally will look like...


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Whiskers is the only one I can think of really, TBH.
> 
> 
> That may be the case BUT in all fairness he has made a few good calls of late and not scared to put his neck out with them
> ...


----------



## Whiskers (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL i didnt say u guys were right i just said ya used it more trhoroughly :
> he asked an EW sorta question , better u guys answering than me giving a bogans eye view on it  i cant pronounce the lingo .
> 
> gotta love that gold price eh
> ...




LOL

Yeah I reckon I'm right. 

I been picking some nice swing trades but the volatility is making it hard to judge the distance in some cases, especially in the indicies.

Still like the Expanded Flat scenerio... looks valid on the Dow also.

That being the case the rebound up leg C should be pretty well straight up as opposed to maybe 45/60 degrees for an a of and abc correction.

As for gold... if I'm correct it won't go much higher before it starts a five wave C back towards 800ish.

It all gels in for me... just waiting for the trigger from England in a day or two... maybe a massive rate cut there too... to set it off.


----------



## chops_a_must (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> as far as the other question re what to look at , i hold MTS and maybe suggest a little research for a looksie further down the track . not a ramp , just a suggestion of one to pick some bones on later
> 
> cheers



Mmmm.... a bit of synchronicity... check out my post in the MTS thread yesterday... lololololololololol.


----------



## chops_a_must (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> It all gels in for me... just waiting for the trigger from England in a day or two... maybe a massive rate cut there too... to set it off.



Yep, because now the British own the banks, cutting rates is gonna make a massive difference.

And god knows how you expect that to be bearish for gold. Anyway...


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> LOL
> 
> That being the case the rebound up leg C should be pretty well straight up as opposed to maybe 45/60 degrees for an a of and abc correction.
> 
> ...





gave my guess on gold previously on other thread 

as far as a bounce goes re xao i entered a number of small positions today , arvo /auction in anticipation of it .... a bit risky but i have my own reasons for suspecting a bounce imminent ... prolly wrong , and calculated a loss into my trade entrys , what will be will be


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Mmmm.... a bit of synchronicity... check out my post in the MTS thread yesterday... lololololololololol.




LOL i havent actually looked at the MTS thread here as yet .....oh dear , i wont point that one to ya then :

i hold and have been accumulating as an investment from around 2.30 upwards , average cost now at 3.90 not including return on investment through the fairly peese weak divvy  but hey it still pays me one and is fully franked , also i trade it and often keep stock as profit instead of cash on it ... 

will hunt down the thread and have a read
cheers


----------



## Whiskers (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Lol... and you've said the same thing for 1900 points! You've ridden it the whole way down!




Of course Chops! One has to trade it.

Oh, you were away when someone else started this arguement and I was amazed at my own prowess when forced to post my record.. : : :




> Agree Tech, and I have been waiting nearly 12 months for this period in time.
> 
> The problem is though, which companies are you going to target?




Well Chops, if you were confident with your FA, trust your TA and temper it with EW. 

I differ on the wave count to other EW'ers, but I think we still generally agree on many of the turn points.



chops_a_must said:


> Yep, because now the British own the banks, cutting rates is gonna make a massive difference.




PS: Chops, even if the gov owns the banks a massive rate cut flows through to and equates to more affordability for consumers.

Just notice the real estate auction reports in aus today for example. An instant increase in demand for housing.



> And god knows how you expect that to be bearish for gold. Anyway...




Short term a bit bearish because oil is falling faster too, remember... hence inflation/risk concerns recede.


----------



## nomore4s (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Just notice the real estate auction reports in aus today for example. An instant increase in demand for housing.




Until people start getting laid off.


----------



## chops_a_must (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Until people start getting laid off.



It's already happening here in Perth, you just don't here about it.

A lot of vacant houses around that can't be sold...


----------



## dhukka (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> My intuition of all the markets is there is one hell-of-a-rebound about to unleash.
> 
> My intuition is that the trigger will come from England on thursday/friday.






chops_a_must said:


> Whiskers is the only one I can think of really, TBH.
> 
> Lol... and you've said the same thing for 1900 points! You've ridden it the whole way down!





Yeah, Whiskers ability to call the the overall direction of the market both fundamentally and technically speaks for itself. However, I'm going to agree with him for a change. It's not exactly a difficult call to make that we are oversold in the short term. We are overdue for a bounce, could come as early as tonight if we see a turnaround midday after a sharp sell off in the US tonight. But then again maybe not. Could, if, how's that for hedging? Can I call myself a technical analyst now?


----------



## MS+Tradesim (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Yeah, Whiskers ability to call the the overall direction of the market both fundamentally and technically speaks for itself. However, I'm going to agree with him for a change. It's not exactly a difficult call to make that we are oversold in the short term. We are overdue for a bounce, could come as early as tonight if we see a turnaround midday after a sharp sell off in the US tonight. But then again maybe not. Could, if, how's that for hedging? Can I call myself a technical analyst now?




Who knows....

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^FTSE&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0...1=&study2=&study3=&bartype=BAR&bardensity=LOW


----------



## Kauri (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Not certain yet, but porper also noted thursday/friday as a significant period.
> 
> My intuition of all the markets is there is one hell-of-a-rebound about to unleash.
> 
> My intuition is that the trigger will come from England on thursday/friday.




   well... the press over in blighty agrees with you ... has done for days... even ex-MPC's are listening to you... and they even agree about the timing...
Ex-MPC member Sushil Wadhwani has called on the BoE MPC to cut UK Bank Rate by 100bp to 4.0% tomorrow (FT). UK Bank Rate has been at 5.0% since April.

Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> gave my guess on gold previously on other thread
> 
> as far as a bounce goes re xao i entered a number of small positions today , arvo /auction in anticipation of it .... a bit risky but i have my own reasons for suspecting a bounce imminent ... prolly wrong , and calculated a loss into my trade entrys , what will be will be




 gawd bless america and them darn limeys i say ........hohoho


----------



## dhukka (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like I was half a day out. Any guesses for how long this dead cat will bounce?


----------



## Sunder (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wow, Dow futures just rocketed, FTSE up, SPI futures up on the news that just about every single central bank cut by 50 basis points.

... And I'm holding a small short, and I'll be on an airplane when the market opens tomorrow.

This is gonna hurt.


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Looks like I was half a day out. Any guesses for how long this dead cat will bounce?





i  will be out tommorow, then reasses the next day


----------



## OzWaveGuy (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> I think afew in here use EW to its full extent , better off asking them , tech/a, whiskers,ozwaveguy, cupla others spring to mind
> 
> cheers




4200? Well the aussie futures almost hit that a couple of days ago - did I miss some good news? Ah yes, interest rate cut of a massive 1% - must be the master event to put everyone back on course 

Seriously, 4200 is close to a 61.8% retracement of the leg up from 2003, so it has some relevance. However, at a minimum, we still need to trace out 5 waves down to complete the second five in the 5-3-5 zig-zag correction. Already posted a longer term view here...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=345301&postcount=4828


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

u guys watchin the poms and the yank futures? , this is just absolutely amazing !


----------



## moXJO (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> 4200? Well the aussie futures almost hit that a couple of days ago - did I miss some good news? Ah yes, interest rate cut of a massive 1% - must be the master event to put everyone back on course
> 
> Seriously, 4200 is close to a 61.8% retracement of the leg up from 2003, so it has some relevance. However, at a minimum, we still need to trace out 5 waves down to complete the second five in the 5-3-5 zig-zag correction. Already posted a longer term view here...
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=345301&postcount=4828




This 4200 number was emailed to me a few weeks back and again in the past few days. It mentioned it would not go below this number. So I was interested in opinions as I know this guy is into EW


----------



## jackson8 (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

just wondering if it is possible to get chart of the futures trades for the day or past periods from usa

am interested to see the relationship between  our all ords the dow and futures chart

i realise that  all ords closely follows the dow but how much does the dow follow the previous futures

hope this makes sense


----------



## OzWaveGuy (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Wow, Dow futures just rocketed, FTSE up, SPI futures up on the news that just about every single central bank cut by 50 basis points.
> 
> ... And I'm holding a small short, and I'll be on an airplane when the market opens tomorrow.
> 
> This is gonna hurt.




Quite possibly, depending how far against you it goes. From an elliott wave standpoint there's a probable small expanded flat correction (wave c) up on the XAO and a 3rd (last) wave of a zig-zag correction up on the Aussie futures - both should see 5 small waves up to complete around the 4800 mark (61.8% retracement) on the XAO for completion.


----------



## subaru69 (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> u guys watchin the poms and the yank futures? , this is just absolutely amazing !




US has dropped rates by 50bps about an hour ago (I just realised this a few minutues back).

I saw the DOW down 150, then up 150, then up 18, now up 115. All in the space of an hour!!

It's very confusing for me


----------



## Sunder (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Quite possibly, depending how far against you it goes. From an elliott wave standpoint there's a probable small expanded flat correction (wave c) up on the XAO and a 3rd (last) wave of a zig-zag correction up on the Aussie futures - both should see 5 small waves up to complete around the 4800 mark (61.8% retracement) on the XAO for completion.




Although not using any analysis methods, my "feel" for the state of the economy is that we're not ready for a real turn around yet, just more dead cat bounces.

Since my holding is small, I'm tempted to watch to see if tomorrow holds any upwards momentum, and if it doesn't, double my short from a higher position.


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jackson8 said:


> just wondering if it is possible to get chart of the futures trades for the day or past periods from usa
> 
> am interested to see the relationship between  our all ords the dow and futures chart
> 
> ...




It don't work like that. The cash follows the futs on a second by second basis. What happened yesterday stay is the past.


----------



## rederob (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Looks like I was half a day out. Any guesses for how long this dead cat will bounce?



I still reckon the cat has all its lives, so another 9 bounces should be in order


----------



## theasxgorilla (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Although not using any analysis methods, my "feel" for the state of the economy is that we're not ready for a real turn around yet, just more dead cat bounces.




FWIW I always like to keep in mind that there is the economy (the real one and the statistical one), and the sharemarket.  Is the sharemarket an outward representation/scorecard for the real economy?  Not likely IMO.


----------



## dhukka (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rederob said:


> I still reckon the cat has all its lives, so another 9 bounces should be in order




Looks like it was the bounce that never was, US futures now pointing sharply down and Europe off *-5%* again.


----------



## brty (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Considering the rally from the IR cuts lasted a grand total of 6 minutes after the announcement, and about a hour before the announcement  and we are about 37 points down on the spoos, it doesn't look like the cat will be bouncing tomorrow.

In fact tonight maybe the time to assume the crash position.  The PPT maybe out of ammunition.

brty


----------



## mayk (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Who know, the Central banks might pull another rabbit out of their a*se to woo stock market. May be another .5BP cut will create another euphoria...


----------



## Trembling Hand (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

DUMB timing. These guys have no idea. no idea!!

They should of waited until the US opened down 2-3 % then announced. They would of had all the short Futs caught + the punters buying the cash.

We would of had a proper rally.

IDIOTS can't even organise a proper rally.


----------



## Kauri (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> DUMB timing. These guys have no idea. no idea!!
> 
> They should of waited until the US opened down 2-3 % then announced. They would of had all the short Futs caught + the punters buying the cash.
> 
> ...




  maybe the fact that with a long weekend coming up in the States and the Israel holiday tomorrow, today was clearly ear marked as the optimum day to do the dastardly deed??

Cheers
...........Kauri.


----------



## tech/a (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ho hum

I find it simply amazing that people think that to biggest single collapse in the Western monetary system is going to be solved in a day/week or month.
This will take years.

The reaction I see from traders who simply think the market will turn bullish overnight and remain there just proves how incomptent most are.

These are going to be a very challenging few years.
The bandaids are on but the hemmoraging still remains,You'll recongnise a bottom it will be long and flat not a SPIKE!


----------



## tech/a (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Note the *HEADLINE to the right.*
Aint that the truth! and it will be the same in the European markets.
This shot was taken a few minutes ago.


----------



## CamKawa (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

lol

Check out this headline.


----------



## Aussiejeff (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Last night, desperate Fed agents knocked on the [size=+1]*The Gho$tbu$ter$*[/size] garage door, but they had to flee when a [size=+2]*$uper$ized $tay Puft MacMar$hmallow Man**[/size]* appeared behind them, trampling downtown Manhattan.


----------



## MrBurns (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

BHP and RIO have gone up, aren't the public cute ? they think they're grabbing bargains ! 

HAHAHAhahahahaha 
oh I needed that..........


----------



## Aussiejeff (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> BHP and RIO have gone up, aren't the public cute ? they think they're grabbing bargains !
> 
> HAHAHAhahahahaha
> oh I needed that..........




Apparently, online gambling is a growth industry...


----------



## nunthewiser (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> BHP and RIO have gone up, aren't the public cute ? they think they're grabbing bargains !
> 
> HAHAHAhahahahaha
> oh I needed that..........




blessem


----------



## MrBurns (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> Apparently, online gambling is a growth industry...




I think we need people like this though, they need to lose ALL their money so we can step in and take over the world. Come on suckers grab those bargains !!!


----------



## deadset (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Excellent Smithers, the wheel is in motion.

----------

"Keep selling Smithers!, lucky for me I sold my own stock short via our trust account and switched to gold months ago.  The fun is only just beginning.  Oh, and keep selling all the commodities while you are at it.  I like to play awhile before total annihilation."


----------



## moXJO (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Our banks have been holding up well through this. We have not revisited their lows yet.


----------



## Sean K (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone else have 3400 as a target?

0951 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 should test major Fibonacci support at 4281.0 (61.8% retracement of 2003-2007 rise) today after DJIA fell 2.0% and European markets fell more than 5.0% despite coordinated central bank easing. Negative market reaction shows officials are well behind the curve. Late U.S. news that Fed will inject another US$37.8 billion into AIG has pushed U.S. stock index futures down 0.4% (overnight SPI futures closed before this news came out). Another negative is news Mt Gibson (MGX.AU) says customers asked for delays of iron ore shipments due to slowing Chinese iron ore demand. Base metals prices suffered major falls overnight, so resources will be pummeled alongside financials, which should fall in line with offshore peers. Major chart support at 4281.0 looks set to break as index falls out of falling wedge pattern. *Traders who have been bearish the past 12 months remain bearish, forecasting slide to 3400.0. DJIA looks headed for another 22% fall from here, so 3400.0 looks a logical prediction for S&P/ASX 200. *Index last 4388.1. (DWR)


----------



## deadset (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well CBA had an early $39-41 rise.

I'm getting dizzy already.

Looks like 4249 held firm a few times already this morning.


----------



## dhukka (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Anyone else have 3400 as a target?
> 
> 0951 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 should test major Fibonacci support at 4281.0 (61.8% retracement of 2003-2007 rise) today after DJIA fell 2.0% and European markets fell more than 5.0% despite coordinated central bank easing. Negative market reaction shows officials are well behind the curve. Late U.S. news that Fed will inject another US$37.8 billion into AIG has pushed U.S. stock index futures down 0.4% (overnight SPI futures closed before this news came out). Another negative is news Mt Gibson (MGX.AU) says customers asked for delays of iron ore shipments due to slowing Chinese iron ore demand. Base metals prices suffered major falls overnight, so resources will be pummeled alongside financials, which should fall in line with offshore peers. Major chart support at 4281.0 looks set to break as index falls out of falling wedge pattern. *Traders who have been bearish the past 12 months remain bearish, forecasting slide to 3400.0. DJIA looks headed for another 22% fall from here, so 3400.0 looks a logical prediction for S&P/ASX 200. *Index last 4388.1. (DWR)




Yep, back in March I indicated a target of between 3400 - 3800. With some fo the other targets out there in the 2000's I'm starting to look like an optimist.


----------



## skyQuake (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Have 3300s before all this is over.

Having said that, everyone has 3000s as the downside targets? Yes? Ok Time to go long!


----------



## treefrog (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> Our banks have been holding up well through this. We have not revisited their lows yet.




not sure how you see see 4050points up over 4 years and down 3150 in the next year as 'holding up well' mo


----------



## biggles (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I,ve been reading Dynamic Trader and Fibonacci time extensions, says its 50% or 61.8% of previous run which would make it around 3500 as far as i can work out


----------



## moXJO (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> not sure how you see see 4050points up over 4 years and down 3150 in the next year as 'holding up well' mo




I'm talking short term
NAB CBA WBC ANZ were lower and have been moving sideways since roughly July and are holding above the lows despite the market breaking further to the downside. I am surprised they are holding above their lows. Perhaps people running to the banks for safety? Little do they know 

 Um I'm not that blind froggy to miss the last 12 months - 4 years of action. I have been trading the ranges in the current market.


----------



## treefrog (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> I'm talking short term
> NAB CBA WBC ANZ were lower and have been moving sideways since roughly July and are holding above the lows despite the market breaking further to the downside. I am surprised they are holding above their lows. Perhaps people running to the banks for safety? Little do they know
> 
> Um I'm not that blind froggy to miss the last 12 months - 4 years of action. I have been trading the ranges in the current market.




fair enough - not always easy to pick timeframe to comment - ? LT, MT, ST?but did briefly wonder if you were referring to recent consolidation and easing of oversold momentum


----------



## Logique (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It will take something special to calm investors down, however I see the rout of past days as reassuring, something needed to purge the sytem. With so much built up momentum, I can't see a reason why XAO 3500 won't be tested, possibly even 3000.

Now very possible that the market will put in another month of October low point. At some time after that, and with no need to be rushing in, we'll pick up quality holdings at prices to brag about for years. And grind our way back up the wall of worry. 

Nobody can tell me that when the dust settles there won't be oversold value everywhere.  Just two examples mentioned elsewhere on the board - MCC share price $21 down to $6, and GCL $12 down to $4.  In 4 months, give me a break. Even if the earnings are revised downwards, these are coal exporting cash earners, and paying dividends.   (I don't currently hold either stock).


----------



## MS+Tradesim (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't see any point in making predictions as...anything can happen. Nevertheless, for the sheer fun of it, some random thoughts based on monthly. 

Curved lines are semi-log trends. Last night we hit the purple one. 4000 coincides with the blue trend and *may* be important psychologically for a breather either sideways or potential rally (rally, not a trend change). Low of 3200-3400 in '09 does not seem off the cards. Who knows? Not me. Trade well.


----------



## Trembling Hand (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like the Sushi was good today. They have the buy button turned up to full.


----------



## Captain G (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think I've got this right, but Short Selling is to be lifted in the US tonight. So, I wonder how shakey things will become again - that's if there's anything left to be shorted!!


----------



## Sunder (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking at the FTSE-100, banks and miners are going to skyrocket tomorrow. 

Hope nobody is holding open shorts on them.

I think the chinese proverb is wrong. It's FUN to live in interesting times!


----------



## tech/a (9 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ok I'm out of my box.

Im expecting a *good retracement* from here.
Taking a look at the *weekly* we have a wave 5 at the end of a wave 3 (Higher timeframe),I expect this to retrace to the consolidation area of 5000 ish.

Note the confluence of short and long term fib also the measured move of both legs of the ABC corrective move.
Some good divergence in both Weekly and Daily




Looking at the Daily chart we have an end of 5 of 5 of 5.
All of the above analysis in weekly apply to the daily.




Some good analysis on BHP at the moment havent the time to post up.


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Certainly these levels will be broken to the low side today.
Levels of 3400 are entirely possible bringing  this correction then in line with the 50% retracement in 1987.

I'm not expecting this to move down to those levels in one complete move,rather a rally first followed by further falls.

The depth of the crisis really doesnt seem to be known by any experts let alone the guy on the street.

Truely an amazing thing to watch


----------



## Sunder (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*









And I'm still holding my small short. 

Better than holding a long I guess. Blessing in disguise that I didn't have internet access during trading hours yesterday? I would likely have closed out or switched to long.


----------



## nunthewiser (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

um.........looks like a few of us called a bounce wrong eh..... amazing stuff


----------



## theasxgorilla (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Looking at the Daily chart we have an end of 5 of 5 of 5.




All appliers of Elliott Wave analysis get caught with this one...the 5th of the 5th of the 5th...it's gotta turn around.

Ever told someone they should sell because the count on a stock (according to me myself and I) was at a top???  I know I have.  ASX went from 20 to 60 something after that.  Fortunately, we're still friends.  And besides it turned out he could use the cash in a business venture.


----------



## Logique (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The US market ban on short selling was lifted last night. Don't forget that the Australian ban is set to be lifted in a week or so.

MS+Tradesim from the previous page - those are useful semi-log plots, looks like we'll hit your blue line at round 4,000 today.


----------



## chops_a_must (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> um.........looks like a few of us called a bounce wrong eh..... amazing stuff



It learns to walk and chew gum at the same time... and then it steps on a land mine.

The market just does not know where the next shot is coming from, nor does it know where the last one was shot from.

It was always going to be hard to have a strong close with the Lehman CDS auction tomorrow.

One thing's for certain, a lot of 'stable' markets are going to hit circuit breakers throughout the day today. Almost worth not going to work to watch this...


----------



## theasxgorilla (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'll stick my neck out...not for any other reason than I think I'm actually onto something...lots of large cap stocks hovering precariously on 50% retracements of their all time highs.  Found support but after last night on the NYSE it wouldnt suprise me if we see some of them break...next logical support at 61.8% of ATH...expect the XAO to fall to 50% of ATH so, 3400ish.

This is where the S&P500 stopped after the 00-02 bear market.


----------



## Nick Radge (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Almost worth not going to work to watch this...




So that's why the unemployment rate ticked up earlier this week...


----------



## chops_a_must (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> I'll stick my neck out...not for any other reason than I think I'm actually onto something...lots of large cap stocks hovering precariously on 50% retracements of their all time highs.  Found support but after last night on the NYSE it wouldnt suprise me if we see some of them break...next logical support at 61.8% of ATH...expect the XAO to fall to 50% of ATH so, 3400ish.
> 
> This is where the S&P500 stopped after the 00-02 bear market.




Would rather it's over quickly, but no guarantees it will stop there...

On another note, the VIX up another *11% to 64%!!!! Unreal!*


----------



## theasxgorilla (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> On another note, the VIX up another *11% to 64%!!!! Unreal!*




Surreal...honestly can't believe what I'm seeing...feel almost insulated from it but know that the tsunami will follow the quake.


----------



## Temjin (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Would rather it's over quickly, but no guarantees it will stop there...
> 
> On another note, the VIX up another *11% to 64%!!!! Unreal!*




Wow..and apparently, you can trade them too! lol futures and options $$$$$


----------



## Captain G (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That's what happens when you lift the ban on short selling !! I may not be too bright & don't have much to add or say on most things, especially after being burnt for saying what some may consider being dumb or obvious things, but I could see this coming and the effect it would have on the markets. This market will short itself to death if given the opportunity!! 

So, the way I see it all charting systems unforunately go out the window in this type of environment until this part of the equation & the the instability/ volatility shorting generates is stopped.

I say this not to offend any posters, especially Tech/a, for whom I have a great deal of respect & enjoy, with his experience, knowledge and work !!


----------



## chops_a_must (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Captain G said:


> That's what happens when you lift the ban on short selling !! I may not be too bright & don't have much to add or say on most things, especially after being burnt for saying what some may consider being dumb or obvious things, but I could see this coming and the effect it would have on the markets. This market will short itself to death if given the opportunity!!



That has nothing to do with it. We had massive falls without the ban, and will have one on our market again today.

The real reason for the fall is the market looking for a default from GM, and Ford. GM needs a bridging loan, and wont be able to get finance. Both of these stocks could be shorted with the ban.

Add to that the CDS auction tonight, and you have a messy set of circumstances.


----------



## nunthewiser (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

one may even have noticed a distinct lack of sucka rallys since the short ban .. forgive me if im wrong but dont the shorters have to close there positions at some point too leading to a bit of a buying spree to cover position 

but hey blame the shorters , blame the guvverment , bugga it lets blame oprah


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Captain G said:


> That's what happens when you lift the ban on short selling !! I may not be too bright & don't have much to add or say on most things, especially after being burnt for saying what some may consider being dumb or obvious things, but I could see this coming and the effect it would have on the markets. This market will short itself to death if given the opportunity!!




Pretty funny!!

but you only have to look at the HUGE increase in open interest in ALL futures markets that have banned short selling to realize that the ban has actually *INCRESED* the falls and general downward pressure. Its made targeted falls a problem for ever stock.

Bloody dumb ar$e populist decision that has back fired. IMHO


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Captain G said:


> So, the way I see it all charting systems unfortunately go out the window in this type of environment until this part of the equation & the the instability/ volatility shorting generates is stopped.




I certainly don't agree with this statement.(Going out the window)
All analysis regardless that which you use tells you something is brewing.
That's what this analysis is saying.




> All appliers of Elliott Wave analysis get caught with this one...the 5th of the 5th of the 5th...it's gotta turn around.




Another fall today wont alter the count--it will still be the 5,5,5 count.
On the weekly it will simply be an extension of the 3 rd wave.
As has been said before there needs to be capitulation.Last night or tonight may see this in the US.Personally and analytically I think we are close.
The whole world is screaming Armageddon--and it is---but also another analytic tool.

Its not time to throw analysis out the window but to be watchful of what its telling us.
As Ive said before I don't see this being a "V" bottom but a cautious slowing and reversal for a while before the final thrust down.

It will come clear and in hindsight we will clearly see it.
If we are aware we may well understand where we are at during the process.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, it's certainly raining at the moment. The DJI and S&P500 are unwinding aggressively in wave 3 of 3's. As for the XAO, it's working impulsively in 5 waves lower. As previously discussed, there was a chance that the XAO could have been an expanded flat correction on the hourly chart to complete wave II circle, as of the close yesterday an expanded flat was out of the picture. 

In any case, as previously discussed, the market action after the completion of wave II circle meant aggressive downside momentum in wave III circle (or to possibly subdivide further - most likely). The financial sector has been holding up in a sideways wave 2 and should now start to break down to push the XAO lower.

Sunder came thru unscathed, and is probably going to be in for awhile? - so some good news for some. 

The S&P500 should start to hit a series of wave 4 corrections very shortly...more about the impact to the XAO wave count later...


----------



## OzWaveGuy (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> All appliers of Elliott Wave analysis get caught with this one...the 5th of the 5th of the 5th...it's gotta turn around.




Ouch! Because someone crashes a car does that mean all cars don't work?? Elliottwave Wave is a tool, and can be used in different ways - hammering on someone's wave count ain't the right approach here. Your inclusion of "All Appliers" is a little over the top - since you haven't been reading other posts on EW in the forum.


----------



## $20shoes (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Certainly these levels will be broken to the low side today.
> Levels of 3400 are entirely possible bringing  this correction then in line with the 50% retracement in 1987.
> 
> I'm not expecting this to move down to those levels in one complete move,rather a rally first followed by further falls.




The daily is certainly showing a powerful move with closes outside of the 55day Bollinger Bands that can't be sustained much longer without a relief rally. The Stochastics are about to bottom out too, so today could be the final day of pain (for a little while).
The weekly shows we have a tad more downside left - I think we need to touch the green Bollinger Band on the weekly before a relief rally ensues: should hit it today.

Note that the weekly Bollingers are not yet indicating that a major bottom is in (though they do lag).

My 2cents... Amazing times indeed.


----------



## Muschu (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There seems to be some anticipation of a rally - which makes sense to me.  Problem is whether, and what to, buy before then and dipose of when [if] a rally occurs.  
Think it's easier for me to just stay away.....


----------



## moXJO (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From this for the last few weeks in my email


> Yes - This Is The Bottom
> 1.05 pm, October 7th 2008
> 
> I believe this is the bottom of the trend.
> ...




To this


> Dow Jones Dives 7.3%
> October 10th 2008
> 
> Global stock markets staged a mini crash overnight.
> ...



suppose today will tell if it holds or not. I wonder how many will get (have got) caught out


----------



## sam76 (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I still can't get over CBA calling a bottom a couple of weeks ago.


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wonder how many lives the dead moggy has got left? All gone?


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> I still can't get over CBA calling a bottom a couple of weeks ago.




Hey! What happened to Patch Adams face??? LOL


----------



## Sunder (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I closed my short and opened a small long while it was 5.1% down. It's now 5.3% down.

I'm calling relief rally Monday next week. The G20 consortium meeting in Washington this weekend is not going to go home without doing something decisive. I'm sure they'd rather call a international long weekend, rather than allow the weekend to end without something positive to inject into the market. 

Forget fundamental or technical analysis. I'm trying a new technique called "Sentiment analysis". In times of panic, it seems to trump every other style.


----------



## sam76 (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"In early trading, 196 shares were down, and only one share was higher"

lol

which one's that?


----------



## tcoates (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

AIZ is up 0.5c


----------



## tex.willer (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Proper deleveraging is finally underway + realization that it DOES and WILL affect China and all of it will affect the AUS consumer pockets.

A lot lower P/Es are acceptable is this conditions. All 'experts' saying some companies are good value don't tell you there will be a flood of downgrades.


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> I closed my short and opened a small long while it was 5.1% down. It's now 5.3% down.
> 
> I'm calling relief rally Monday next week. *The G20 consortium meeting in Washington this weekend is not going to go home without doing something decisive*....




Could be a good punch-up. Lots of panicked pollies and their trusty treasury sidekicks pushing their own barrows full of plastic casino chips.

What price a ringside seat??


----------



## tex.willer (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> Could be a good punch-up. Lots of panicked pollies and their trusty treasury sidekicks pushing their own barrows full of plastic casino chips.
> 
> What price a ringside seat??




Politicians can do whatever they want, the market will go wherever it has decided, regardless.

This should have happened 6 years ago. Cheap money was thrown in the fire and it's happening now and much harder, instead.


----------



## kotim (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The big banks in Australia have been going sidieways up til the last couple of days, and since yesterday they have started breaking support, have a look at a trend line under the sideways move of CBA.  CBA on a daily and weekly has been bouncing off that trendline.  So we can say that either it is being accumulated or distributed at the sideways movement.  If it is accumulation then at best have a one day false break below trend line and turn around, or we go  below those trend lines for quite  bit.

CBA is our strongest bank supposdly so if it blows a lot lower what do you think will happen with the others.  

All the financial commentators/gurus seem to suggest the financial crisis is much worse than 1987 and the worst since 1934, so when we realise that 2 ofour big banks retraced 61% of their all time high after the 87 crash, then we consider something like that has to go close to happenign again.  Worst case drop so far by any bank in this whole bear marekt has been 57 odd%. by NAB on a spike low.  

For those not aware, yesterday was not only a 1-1 movement down in price but also 1-1 movement down in time.  Price and time coming together like that does not hapen real regular and certainly big players in the game would have been aware of it yet they wer not wiling to wade into the market


----------



## Sunder (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> Could be a good punch-up. Lots of panicked pollies and their trusty treasury sidekicks pushing their own barrows full of plastic casino chips.
> 
> What price a ringside seat??




Two ways to get excitement out of this:

1. Buy a ticket to Washington and fly over

2. Randomly buy some index funds of the Dow, Footsie, Hang Seng, Shanghai, ASX, and load them up on the big screen. It'd kind of be like a 5 way boxing match. Everyone is getting smashed, and it's possible that nobody is a winner at the end.


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey, I've got a great title for a new prime-time US Game Show - 

[size=+2]*"BULLION or BUST!!*[/size]"

Waddya think?


----------



## moXJO (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> Hey, I've got a great title for a new prime-time US Game Show -
> 
> [size=+2]*"BULLION or BUST!!*[/size]"
> 
> Waddya think?




How about bringing 'Its a knockout' back. Except with world leaders instead of bogans


----------



## Sunder (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> I closed my short and opened a small long while it was 5.1% down. It's now 5.3% down.




Reminder to self: NEVER EVER go long before 11:30am on a significant down day when you expect margin calls. 

Gonna see if it recovers, then change my position to short at 2:30 before the next round of margin call selloffs.


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Reminder to self: NEVER EVER go long before 11:30am on a significant down day when you expect margin calls.
> 
> Gonna see if it recovers, then change my position to short at 2:30 before the next round of margin call selloffs.




Wasn't margin calls it was the Nikkei opening limit down over 10%.

Ya gotta know what happening out there


----------



## sam76 (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"Paulson and other leaders need to step up and tell bank they have one hour to start lending if they don't the fed's will begin borrowing to people at the rate they charge the banks. its all about competition."

Would this work?


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> "Paulson and other leaders need to step up and tell bank they have one hour to start lending if they don't the fed's will begin borrowing to people at the rate they charge the banks. its all about competition."
> 
> Would this work?




Or we SEND IN THE NATIONAL GUARD!


----------



## undertoe (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

start cracking heads, bombs work for other US problems why not this. Maybe that part comes latter


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Next little hurtle for this 11:30 bounce will be at 12:45 - 1:00 when Hong Kong opens. 

 We are 100 points off the low. Will it survive the 5 to 10 % the HSI is going to open down?


----------



## nunthewiser (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Next little hurtle for this 11:30 bounce will be at 12:45 - 1:00 when Hong Kong opens.
> 
> We are 100 points off the low. Will it survive the 5 to 10 % the HSI is going to open down?





thanks TH your a star , tis an asset here havin someone glued to the pulse


----------



## kotim (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Those who are short have to take some profit at some time, Have a looka the move up, it is not a rocket, it is gradual, so generally speaking the bigger hands are offloading their shorts to the weaker hands who think they are buying a bargain.  If the strong hands think their is more downside then they will come back in at some point and shove the weak hands down.

Ultimatley we will see after lunch who the strong hands are today.


----------



## chops_a_must (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> Those who are short have to take some profit at some time, Have a looka the move up, it is not a rocket, it is gradual, so generally speaking the bigger hands are offloading their shorts to the weaker hands who think they are buying a bargain.  If the strong hands think their is more downside then they will come back in at some point and shove the weak hands down.
> 
> Ultimatley we will see after lunch who the strong hands are today.



There are no shorts!

That's one of the problems.


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> it is gradual, so generally speaking the bigger hands are offloading their shorts to the weaker hands who think they are *buying a bargain*.




That don't make sense 

The shorts BUY to close. So they are taking stock/futs off the sellers?

Can you explain your statement a bit more.


----------



## sam76 (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Remember what Churchill said:

"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."


----------



## refined silver (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> "Paulson and other leaders need to step up and tell bank they have one hour to start lending if they don't the fed's will begin borrowing to people at the rate they charge the banks. its all about competition."
> 
> Would this work?




They have just suspended fair accounting rules, in other words, the SEC has legalised lying about your financial state, and then they expect people to lend to each other??????

If you are insolvent (as most banks are) no one will lend to you. If you are able to lie about your insolvency and everyone knows you are lying it doesn't change anything!!

Half-wit financial commentators who talk about it being a crisis of confidence have it a#$e backwards. The root cause is an insolvent financial system because of so many trillions of now worthless OTC derivatives. 

The Fed has already said it will start to lend to certain businesses. The end result will be the same, death of the system, and a massive wave of inflation.


----------



## korrupt_1 (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

someone at the ASX needs to hit the reboot button the the old commodore 64.

the carnage is just horrific... 

i have no trades open... but i'm just terrified!!! 

the way XAO is going... it;s looking like 3500 is more and more of a reality... i never ever truly believe that it could be a possibility, but i'm finally waking up to it..

Whisker's "pot hole" is starting to look like an abyss...


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Next little hurtle for this 11:30 bounce will be at 12:45 - 1:00 when Hong Kong opens.
> 
> We are 100 points off the low. Will it survive the 5 to 10 % the HSI is going to open down?




Don't say I didn't warn ya!!

:


----------



## kotim (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was specifically referring to the futures market.

When you go short say on a futures contract, to get out(flat) someone has to buy it from you, so in other words.  Most futures traders work on parameters and don't rely on trends to the same degree as stock traders, so in other words they are more likely to have a profit objective and get out at a specified profit objective.

someone has to take the other side.


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> When you go short say on a futures contract, to get out(flat) someone has to *buy* it from you, so in other words.  Most futures traders work on parameters and don't rely on trends to the same degree as stock traders, so in other words they are more likely to have a profit objective and get out at a specified profit objective.




Mate your terms are all mixed up. To close a short you "Buy to Close" the person on the other side can *only* be "Selling to open" or "Selling to Close".


There aint no buyers on the *other* side of a closed short transaction.


----------



## Whiskers (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> someone at the ASX needs to hit the reboot button the the old commodore 64.
> 
> the carnage is just horrific...
> 
> ...




Quite a crack opening up now... but there's still some positive divergence there... not calling an it abyss, yet.

I still think this latest plunge can turn around pretty quickly and mainstream society just step over it.



sam76 said:


> Remember what Churchill said:
> 
> "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."




Unfortunately this is so true with so many ex-wallstreeters in the administration.

I think part of the problem now is their fuelling further instability in the market by procrastinating instead of getting on with taking some control of the key banking institutions instead of just postulating about it.

The real economy can survive, with government taking back some or all control of some businesses, like the UK, but over there it seems that they are choking on the inevetable death of  their version of 'free enterprise' and 'capitalism'.


----------



## dhukka (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> I have made a specific call on the XAO bottoming out between 3400 - 3800






Whiskers said:


> Yes and those targets are still over the otherside of the back of bourke somewhere and simillarly 'lost' in the outback.
> (




Still looking lost in the outback are they Whiskers? I'd say you're bottom call at *4881* looks a little more lost.


----------



## skc (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Mate your terms are all mixed up. To close a short you "Buy to Close" the person on the other side can *only* be "Selling to open" or "Selling to Close".
> 
> 
> There aint no buyers on the *other* side of a closed short transaction.




Dumb question... who's the counterparty to the other side of the contract? i.e. Who's money are you taking?


----------



## marcadrian (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

HSI opens to 8% slide and at about 1pm we follow suit just like TH predicts. 
TH does this domino effect (from the Nikkei and HSI) affect our market every day at these times? I'm new to this game and learn something new from your posts every day. Very grateful.


----------



## CamKawa (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The whole futures board is glowing red at the moment which may be giving XAO a bit of a tail wind. This has got to bounce at some stage - surely!!!????


----------



## GreatPig (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

With the XAO at about 3964 right now, it's only 100 points above the red line.

Will it follow the last three times it hit that line, or will it break through and we say bye bye to the trend since late 1987?

Given that current conditions are supposedly much worse than those three times, I'm not holding my breath.

GP


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Dumb question... who's the counterparty to the other side of the contract? i.e. Who's money are you taking?



 Not sure what you mean. Every dollar won is from the person/s on the other side who lost it. Zero Sum game.



marcadrian said:


> HSI opens to 8% slide and at about 1pm we follow suit just like TH predicts.
> TH does this domino effect (from the Nikkei and HSI) affect our market every day at these times? I'm new to this game and learn something new from your posts every day. Very grateful.




Yep. also was to busy to post  but you have the 2:30 after lunch japan open that normally shakes things. As well as being the tradition margin call time not to sure about that now days with elec margin controls etc.


----------



## korrupt_1 (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> With the XAO at about 3964 right now, it's only 100 points above the red line.
> 
> Will it follow the last three times it hit that line, or will it break through and we say bye bye to the trend since late 1987?
> 
> ...




great chart... food for thought...

i was hearing that when DJ cracked 9000 it triggered automated computer selling and hence it was over done....

some anal-list are saying that there's little downside pressure at these oversold levels, so it's possible that it may bounce off that red line....


----------



## Whiskers (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Still looking lost in the outback are they Whiskers? I'd say you're bottom call at *4881* looks a little more lost.




Our banks... ANZ you mentioned getting closer to 10 than 15... is still way over there. Don't wanna repeat that one yet eh.

Well the XAO was a bottom for awhile at least... and the potential for the markets to stabalise was there... but basically hasn't occured yet as just posted above.

We will rebound faster as soon as the yanks stop jerking world confidence around and just get on with the job that they have to do, but are choking on.


----------



## dhukka (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Our banks... ANZ you mentioned getting closer to 10 than 15... is still way over there. Don't wanna repeat that one yet eh.




Have a little patience Whiskers, good things come to those who wait. 



Whiskers said:


> Well the XAO was a bottom for awhile at least... and the potential for the markets to stabalise was there... but basically hasn't occured yet as just posted above.




So basically you were right then? It was a bottom ....but just for a while. Which is the same as every other bottom that isn't THE bottom. Or it should have been the bottom because it had the potential to be the bottom? But it wasn't the bottom, so I guess you were wrong?


----------



## OzWaveGuy (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> With the XAO at about 3964 right now, it's only 100 points above the red line.
> 
> Will it follow the last three times it hit that line, or will it break through and we say bye bye to the trend since late 1987?
> 
> ...




The Elliottwave count doesn't suggest a bounce as yet, although we're getting close to a series of small but growing bounces (wave 4's), that will correct multiple wave 3's down at different degrees. Looking at the current wave structure, we need to drop another 300 points or so before major bounces may start to occur. Will post something a little later.

However, the price range of the 1987 high to low is a realistic ending to a very large a-b-c correction 

Fundamentals, interest rates changes, bank buy outs etc won't change a thing - nobody and can change what's underway. The market works in 5 waves up and 3 waves down. It just so happens we're in a 3 waves down of a very large degree (cycle degree aka bloody big!)


----------



## Porper (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> We are declining in a subwave 3 of 3 of the larger degree Wave  C.
> 
> Time wise I have this Thursday/Friday as significant.Also 31st October more so.
> At this stage a possible short term bottom.
> ...




Well I think we can say today is significant 

The count is still behaving itself beautifully.

I will set exceptionally tight stops on my short positions tonight in the US.Let the market take me out if it wants to.

Time wise we are due a bounce, so stick to the analysis.I am expecting the wave 4 to start now, so will stand aside as it wont be tradeable i.m.o.

As I said earlier, I don't think we well get a strong reversal from any bottom but a sustained sideways movement.

Having said that we aren't at the bottom yet, but getting close.

3500 to 3600 is my target.


----------



## chops_a_must (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Quite a crack opening up now... but there's still some positive divergence there... not calling an it abyss, yet.
> 
> I still think this latest plunge can turn around pretty quickly and mainstream society just step over it.



Bahahahahahahahahahahahahaaha!!!!


----------



## nomore4s (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Quite a crack opening up now... but there's still some positive divergence there... not calling an it abyss, yet.
> 
> I still think this latest plunge can turn around pretty quickly and mainstream society just step over it.






You can't be serious?

Just how far do we have to drop before you admit there is a problem? Or to remove your bullish bias?


----------



## tex.willer (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Elliot wave or not, a-b-c or 1-2-3, whatever, the market is revaluing at the moment, not panicking.

If people think this is panic, I would suggest they should change the profession.


----------



## theasxgorilla (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Ouch! Because someone crashes a car does that mean all cars don't work?? Elliottwave Wave is a tool, and can be used in different ways - hammering on someone's wave count ain't the right approach here. Your inclusion of "All Appliers" is a little over the top - since you haven't been reading other posts on EW in the forum.




Are you for real???  Toughen up dude.

I've been reading various applications of Elliott Wave for a long enough time...not just here, but like, well every bloody where.

You respond like I just insulted your religion OzWaveGuy, but you and others should learn to take it on the chin.

And on your car analogy, I'm not so worried about the specific drivers of the car, I'm more worried about the impact it has on other drivers.  Especially the impressionable ones, of which I imagine there are plenty right now.


----------



## IFocus (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> Elliot wave or not, a-b-c or 1-2-3, whatever, the market is revaluing at the moment, not panicking.
> 
> If people think this is panic, I would suggest they should change the profession.




Yes tend to agree about the lack of panic, need more volume another day like today will help some what then they may have to start  locking the windows above the 1st floor's

.


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> Elliot wave or not, a-b-c or 1-2-3, whatever, the market is revaluing at the moment, not panicking.
> 
> If people think this is panic, I would suggest they should change the profession.




Guffaw!!

Banks going broke
Insurance companies going broke.
Governments world wide throwing money (That they don't have) at the banking system to attempt to alleviate total breakdown.

Just a periodic re evaluation.

All pretty normal really.

ASX you should really learn some serious wave principal how it works and how wave counts are dynamic.
You are one of these people who have to have a definative yes/no point of reference.
Black or White.
Where wrong is wrong and right is right.

At least people here give an opinion ---- you only have one and thats Elliott Wave analysis is crap.
*Fine we get it.*


----------



## OzWaveGuy (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Are you for real???  Toughen up dude.
> 
> I've been reading various applications of Elliott Wave for a long enough time...not just here, but like, well every bloody where.
> 
> ...




Oh, I sincerely apologize, obviously my fault. Mental note to self: Ensure to verbally attack anyone who makes a mistake and hopefully this will make an impression on others to do the same instead of trying to offer assistance. Mental note saved


----------



## chops_a_must (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Yes tend to agree about the lack of panic, need more volume another day like today will help some what then they may have to start  locking the windows above the 1st floor's
> 
> .




That's a very long bar focus... 

Absolutely no signs of buying on the close...


----------



## theasxgorilla (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Guffaw!!
> 
> Banks going broke
> Insurance companies going broke.
> ...






When I showed a non-trading friend a chart of the XAO a week ago he concluded that "the market was having a sale".  When I showed him the S&P500 from last night he concluded it was now having a "going out of business sale".


----------



## tex.willer (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Guffaw!!
> 
> Banks going broke
> Insurance companies going broke.
> ...




"Greed is good" is not that good in real life.

You want a car, get a loan, want a house, get a loan, want a holiday, credit card, want plasma and LCD, credit card, want restaurant, credit card. Oh, want to catch that bull run just because China is developing and I don't want to miss out on it - mortgage my house.

Now it's time to pay for it.

What happened to save and spend. Ask the parents and grandparents.

And it's lack of regulation that allowed the banks to shovel loans out the door. They are 30x leveraged in US. It is not unexpected they are dropping like flies in mortein cloud.


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ASX replying to OZWAVE


----------



## theasxgorilla (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Oh, I sincerely apologize, obviously my fault. Mental note to self: Ensure to verbally attack anyone who makes a mistake and hopefully this will make an impression on others to do the same instead of trying to offer assistance. Mental note saved




Note from me to you: get over it.


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> When I showed a non-trading friend a chart of the XAO a week ago he concluded that "the market was having a sale".  When I showed him the S&P500 from last night he concluded it was now having a "going out of business sale".





Show him the chart on 2/11/07 and ask him what its doing.
Then ask him what its going to do without knowing what its going to do.

Many here including myself DID through analysis say exactly what it was going to do.So far out of a move of 2800 points I have one alert possibly out by 500 points---so ???

Its analysis you know the stuff you dont get involved with.


----------



## theasxgorilla (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> At least people here give an opinion ---- you only have one and thats Elliott Wave analysis is crap.
> *Fine we get it.*




No, no, no.  You got me all wrong.  I understand all about wave counts being dynamic, hence being wrong until they're not.  What concerns me is that most others don't, and if you happened to contact someone via PM (for example) who you knew held a stock (for example) and told them that the impulse count of a greater and two lesser degrees was complete and that means the stock isn't going to go up any more (for example) and that person acted on that information (for example), then I think that is dangerous application of analysis, particularly if (for example) that stock continued to make new all time highs for years to come.


----------



## theasxgorilla (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Many here including myself DID through analysis say exactly what it was going to do.So far out of a move of 2800 points I have one alert possibly out by 500 points---so ???




Where have I seen this before???


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> "Greed is good" is not that good in real life.
> 
> You want a car, get a loan, want a house, get a loan, want a holiday, credit card, want plasma and LCD, credit card, want restaurant, credit card. Oh, want to catch that bull run just because China is developing and I don't want to miss out on it - mortgage my house.
> 
> ...





Ha ha love it.
Every business (successful ones) have business loans.
Every business from time to time takes a calculated punt and leverages highly.I certainly do and I certainly have in my private life.

In the late 90s I leveraged my brains out today I'm 34% leveraged and freehold many properties and don't give 2 craps if house prices fall 40%.

A fall of 40% will have these properties EASILY positively geared.
I'll have so much equity even at 40% off today's value the banks will search me out to take their money once again and use it.

Greed's fine if you know when to go from a glutton to an anorexic.
Dont tar every person or business on the planet with the same stupidity brush.


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Where have I seen this before???




In the posts on this thread all for public scrutiny.

Thanks for your input once again ASX another piece of thought provoking analog.


----------



## theasxgorilla (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> In the posts on this thread all for public scrutiny.
> 
> Thanks for your input once again ASX another piece of thought provoking analog.




I've seen the analysis, that wasn't what I was referring to.


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> No, no, no.  You got me all wrong.  I understand all about wave counts being dynamic, hence being wrong until they're not.  What concerns me is that most others don't, and if you happened to contact someone via PM (for example) who you knew held a stock (for example) and told them that the impulse count of a greater and two lesser degrees was complete and that means the stock isn't going to go up any more (for example) and that person acted on that information (for example), then I think that is dangerous application of analysis, particularly if (for example) that stock continued to make new all time highs for years to come.





Do you reckon there would be a chance that any analyst worth his salt would wait for confirmation of any alert regardless of method used.
Opinions are posted everywhere in various forms both technically and Fundamentally---confirmation of proof of accuracy either comes or passes.
Thats analysis.
If anyone is doppey enough to take any analysis direct from a faceless post on a forum ---what can I say.


----------



## tcoates (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

tech,

Are you sure that is not you (in the cartoon) reply to everyone else 

Think that what tex (might be) saying is that people have lived off credit for too long and now it is coming home to roost. And that the notion of saving is a old concept.

asx - if some user takes advise from another user (on a forum) only has themselves to blame if things don't turn out the way they like. if the user does not understand elliot, then why should they take advise from elliot. the user seeking advise should do their own research fundamental or otherwise. not sure where, but tech said in some post (paraphrasing)

I am a builder, not a brain surgeon. You would not him for medical advice.


Tim

Cheer up... it's the weekend.


----------



## tcoates (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Do you reckon there would be a chance that any analyst worth his salt would wait for confirmation of any alert regardless of method used.
> Opinions are posted everywhere in various forms both technically and Fundamentally---confirmation of proof of accuracy either comes or passes.
> Thats analysis.
> If anyone is doppey enough to take any analysis direct from a faceless post on a forum ---what can I say.




my sentiments exactly. 

Tim


----------



## Whiskers (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> You can't be serious?
> 
> Just how far do we have to drop before you admit there is a problem? Or to remove your bullish bias?




I am well aware of the problem, just not narrow minded about the solution... that there has to be blood in the streets and wholesale panic before it's over. If you think about it what has panic got to do with finding the true value of the market. I'd suggest it tends to be a self-fulling prophecy for the market to overcorrect and provide bargains for the calm smart money.

I have picked most of the major issues well enough to trade so far. 

If you recall I've been bearish on the oil sector since before it crashed and have only been generally nuetral on the gold and minerals sector in the short term. If you recall you were trying/contemplating going long WPL recently and scoffed when I suggested strongly to go short to 43... wow thats a long way lower from where it is now you said.

If you recall on that same tread I agreed with tech/a's call to go short BHP and have only just recently contemplated that it may have bottomed.

The problem with the final fix is mostly political will (or lack of) by the US admin, as mentioned earlier due to the admin being loaded with ex-wall streeters looking after their own. They know what they have to do but are jerking the public around too much with political spin trying to avoid the inevetable government intervention in 'Sacred Wall Street business'.

The Bush admin had/have a chance to save the replubicans in office and their economy, but they have just about blown their chances together with world economic and political stability now.

There's a fair bit of meetings happening over the weekend, including the G20. 

Be interesting to see what eventuates next week if the US are still dilly dallying.


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tim who do you reckon drew the cartoon!
Obviously my misses.
There are quite a few here who can relate to that including myself!


----------



## IFocus (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> That's a very long bar focus...
> 
> Absolutely no signs of buying on the close...




Yes its a beauty and pissss no shorts allowed cannot understand this market thing who to blame now..........


----------



## OzWaveGuy (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

so tonight, S&P500, Where to?

I see 5 waves down from  1005 to 870 completed, so some maybe a bounce for a little (upto around maybe 920) before heading lower.


----------



## lular (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Yes its a beauty and pissss no shorts allowed cannot understand this market thing who to blame now..........




Read on Business Spectator that its the hedge funds being squeezed out as they need to find cash for the flood of redemptions that they anticipate.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> so tonight, S&P500, Where to?
> 
> I see 5 waves down from  1005 to 870 completed, so some maybe a bounce for a little (upto around maybe 920) before heading lower.




S&P500 futures that is


----------



## tex.willer (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Ha ha love it.
> Every business (successful ones) have business loans.
> Every business from time to time takes a calculated punt and leverages highly.I certainly do and I certainly have in my private life.
> 
> ...




I can see you haven't been graced with modesty


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> I can see you haven't been graced with modesty




Never sat well with me on faceless forums.
One could speak in the third person if that makes one more comfortable.


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Never sat well with me on faceless forums.
> One could speak in the third person if that makes one more comfortable.




We all luv ya techy.Nothing wrong with calling a spade a spade.


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> We all luv ya techy.Nothing wrong with calling a spade a spade.




You hav'in a dig?


----------



## dhukka (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I have picked most of the major issues well enough to trade so far.




This is just absolutely stunning - a real time case study in cognitive bias.


----------



## theasxgorilla (10 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Do you reckon there would be a chance that any analyst worth his salt would wait for confirmation of any alert regardless of method used.
> Opinions are posted everywhere in various forms both technically and Fundamentally---confirmation of proof of accuracy either comes or passes.
> Thats analysis.
> If anyone is doppey enough to take any analysis direct from a faceless post on a forum ---what can I say.




Alright, church of Elliottologist sermon is over...lets get back on track.  You called a retracement and the market fell almost 10%.  I commented that I've made a similar error in the past and I think it's one of the classic temptations of Elliott Wave.  I've seen so-called pros and amateurs (like me) make the same mistake.  That's all.  No verbal attack, no compaign against EW.


----------



## tech/a (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For the first time in a long time Wall street saw some genuine buying in the latter part of the session.
With a reversal of 700+ points.

So where were we.
Analysis has alerted.
*Cautious rally before final capitulation.*

The confirmation we didnt see yesterday I'm sure we will see on Monday.


----------



## Aussiejeff (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> For the first time in a long time Wall street saw some genuine buying in the latter part of the session.
> With a reversal of 700+ points.
> 
> So where were we.
> ...




Haven't they eased shorting rules? Was it just panicking shorts covering before the close that lifted the chart, then left it with no "steam", so it sank back 250+ pts in last 1/2 hour?


----------



## tech/a (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> Haven't they eased shorting rules? Was it just panicking shorts covering before the close that lifted the chart, then left it with no "steam", so it sank back 250+ pts in last 1/2 hour?




Those that had shorts could always cover them.
You couldn't take a short position in any US financials,you could in anything else.

Yes it could well have been short covering.
But for the first time I think we are seeing some application of the brakes.
But hey Ive been ever so slightly mistaken on one other recent occasion that I can remember .


----------



## Wysiwyg (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> For the first time in a long time Wall street saw some genuine buying in the latter part of the session.
> With a reversal of 700+ points.




Long at 7902 (+1 sigh) 1137 p.m. last night and out out at 8809 0637 a.m. this morning for a massive (off one position) 907 points. Scalping sux. and oh yeah am I a happy chappy.


----------



## Aussiejeff (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On reflection ... the inexplicable run up on the DOW may have been purely a *hope* run in anticipation of GWB offering manna from heaven. The timings appear to match.

When that *surprisingly* (sic) didn't happen, the inevitable charge for the exits occurred. Maybe if the speech had been timed an hour earlier, the DOW would have ended up significantly lower at the close....


----------



## Kauri (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> On reflection ... the inexplicable run up on the DOW may have been purely a *hope* run in anticipation of GWB offering manna from heaven. The timings appear to match.
> 
> When that *surprisingly* (sic) didn't happen, the inevitable charge for the exits occurred. Maybe if the speech had been timed an hour earlier, the DOW would have ended up significantly lower at the close....




Market focus is on the G7 and IMF meetings, _belief that the authorities just cannot turn a blind eye to this innate volatility and widespread investor capitulation sparked the late rally_ which shocked and surprised everyone. Some talk of the "plunge protection team" at work, but it didn"t gain much traction. The fact that Japanese life insurer Yamamoto went bankrupt last night has given some confidence that even the BoJ will be on board for a unified rate cut. Markets are twitchy and inaction by the authorities is simply not an option.

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## nunthewiser (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> On reflection ... the inexplicable run up on the DOW may have been purely a *hope* run in anticipation of GWB offering manna from heaven. The timings appear to match.
> 
> When that *surprisingly* (sic) didn't happen, the inevitable charge for the exits occurred. Maybe if the speech had been timed an hour earlier, the DOW would have ended up significantly lower at the close....




short cover rally?


----------



## Porper (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> But for the first time I think we are seeing some application of the brakes.




I tend to agree, there was definitely buying going on last night.Still not a bottom but interest is starting to show .

I was stopped out of all shorts last night also.

We need strong trends to profit substantially, the past 3 weeks was a great opportunity to top up the account balance.

If last night was a short term reversal we should see volatile choppy trading conditions return.With a tendency to a slightly up/sideways movement.

I still like the Nasdaq chart below best, very clear concise price action.Notice the gap through the retracement zones.This should get filled before the final ? leg down.

The Nasdaq has lost 46% in the past year.The herds are still panicking shouting CRASH from the roof tops.

Maybe an almost 50% downturn doesn't count as a crash


----------



## Porper (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry, forgot to attach Chart.Here it is.


----------



## Kauri (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Long at 7902 (+1 sigh) 1137 p.m. last night and out out at 8809 0637 a.m. this morning for a massive (off one position) 907 points. Scalping sux. and oh yeah am I a happy chappy.




 have you got a chart of that trade mate... I've only got the 30min S+P... by that you must have given back all of the massive profits before catching the final hours rally to _scalp_ them back???  braver man than I..     who do you trade with..and what size is the YM contract??

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> have you got a chart of that trade mate... I've only got the 30min S+P... by that you must have given back all of the massive profits before catching the final hours rally to _scalp_ them back???  braver man than I..     who do you trade with..and what size is the YM contract??
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Here is the YM which is $5 per point. I was trading that last night. And I got to say it must of been one of the nastiest moves I have seen in a long time. The drop through 8000 to 7900 was basically instant.


----------



## Broadway (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

2.95 Billion shares traded last night in the US. One of the highest days on record.

And BHP had volume late as well.

Happy hunting!


----------



## chops_a_must (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Here is the YM which is $5 per point. I was trading that last night. And I got to say it must of been one of the nastiest moves I have seen in a long time. The drop through 8000 to 7900 was basically instant.



Sounds like you got a bit hurt.

Was noticing the YM just gapping 10,15,20 points in the middle of nowhere all throughout the session. Insane. Never seen anything like it, but it sounds like what the HSI is like all the time.

Even the ES was moving half a point plus at a time. Crazy stuff. Wouldn't touch that with a 50 foot barge pole.


----------



## tech/a (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> Elliot wave or not, a-b-c or 1-2-3, whatever, the market is revaluing at the moment, not panicking.
> 
> If people think this is panic, I would suggest they should change the profession.




This post has had me pondering for a while.
My acid reply deserves an apology to *Tex.*

After considered thought I now agree.

What we are seeing is a reversion to equilibrium.
Its not panic as he says.
When there is such a push way way above an equilibrium and in this case its incredibly severe the return to an equilibrium HAS to be just as severe.
That's exactly whats happening and like 99.9% of the population I to have been caught up in the enormity of the situation and seen this as panic.
Simply its not.

The wall is coming up at 200K brakes applied at 20 meters and now the resultant unavoidable collision.
The impact is happening the aftermath is yet to come.
Who if any survive and those that do how long before they recover?

*TEX.*
My apologies and thanks for planting a seed.


----------



## treefrog (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> But hey Ive been ever so slightly mistaken on one other recent occasion that I can remember .




..........and an awful lot that you've forgotten tech


----------



## tech/a (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> ..........and an awful lot that you've forgotten tech




Yeh that happens when I get something right!


----------



## michael_selway (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Yeh that happens when I get something right!




So Tech, technically, where do you think XAO/DOW will go in the coming weeks/months?

thx

MS


----------



## tech/a (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There are 2 options with option (1) still in force.
(1) Next stop 3400 ish
(2) We see a slowing and rally back toward 5000 (havent done any analysis on where it could go.) as shown in the "wrong" chart on this thread.

Of course as I failed to point out in my previous analysis wait for confirmation.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Actually, there are many options. Anything can happen.


----------



## Boggo (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting how the 1 x 1 projection looks, is the 1 x 1.272 projection the next target, ie mid 3600 ?

Note that this is the XJO chart.

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The convergence occurs around 3250 at 1.618 on the XAO

(click to expand)


----------



## Wysiwyg (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kauri said:


> have you got a chart of that trade mate... I've only got the 30min S+P... *by that you must have given back all of the massive **profits* *before catching the final hours rally to *
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Sorry matey, all day in slumber.The chart is on the DOW thread.


----------



## bankit (11 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> The convergence occurs around 3250 at 1.618 on the XAO



 Hi Boggo,

Good work  
There is a cluster of 4 support levels around there too, so if/when we get down there then we could expect some great support and possibly a reversal.

Of course just above that level are the old highs of 3425/3444 made in February/March 2002. It will be these highs that everyone will be concentrating on.

Bankit


----------



## skyQuake (12 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Fib clusters  Simple yet effective


----------



## Sean K (13 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A few bottom callers out there at the moment, but maybe just another bump to dead bottom...

1119 [Dow Jones] Crescendo of forced selling in equities Friday, says Southern Cross Equities director Charlie Aitken. "My view is we have seen the vast bulk of forced selling and deleveraging in equities," says Aitken. Adds Friday's record NYSE volumes, record volatility, record readings of "fear" and record hedge fund and pension fund redemptions support "trading bottom" scenario. Says stock market rally may be triggered by forced sellers being exhausted. Recommends buying Australian banks. Index last up 5.7% at 4187.3. (DWR)


----------



## Logique (13 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Feb 2003* = 2800 ; *Oct 2007* = 6750 ; Leg = *3950*
Retracement by Fibonacci ratios 21 34 55 89 - classic, not the generally accepted trading Fibonacci ratios.

Retracement to: 6750 - (% of 3950)
21% = 5920
34% = 5407
55% = 4577
89% = 3234

So there is a convergence with the 1.618 retracement level of ~ 3200 in the chart posted by bankit above. But to get there it would first have to breach the 3400 - 3500 level - previous resistance, being (hoped for) new support.


----------



## bankit (13 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Retracement to: 6750 - (% of 3950)
> 21% = 5920
> 34% = 5407
> 55% = 4577
> 89% = 3234





Hi Logique,

You are quite correct in using the 89% figure as it (or more precisely 88.6%) does feature in major turning points in a number of Geometric Price patterns like the Bat, Crab, Butterfly and Gartley patterns. 

However I have that 88.6% figure as being 3146 on the All Ords and not 3234. I get that figure from a low of 2666 and high of 6873....

Bankit


----------



## chops_a_must (13 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> A few bottom callers out there at the moment, but maybe just another bump to dead bottom...
> 
> 1119 [Dow Jones] Crescendo of forced selling in equities Friday, says Southern Cross Equities director Charlie Aitken. "My view is we have seen the vast bulk of forced selling and deleveraging in equities," says Aitken. Adds Friday's record NYSE volumes, record volatility, record readings of "fear" and record hedge fund and pension fund redemptions support "trading bottom" scenario. Says stock market rally may be triggered by forced sellers being exhausted. Recommends buying Australian banks. Index last up 5.7% at 4187.3. (DWR)




It's a bottom, not the bottom.

Looks to be more than tradeable...


----------



## Logique (13 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OK nice one Bankit, 

your figures are more precise than mine.  Under more usual circumstances a fair degree of downtrend momentum exhaustion should accompany levels that low, if reached at all. We'll see soon enough. 

I found some of the double digit % gains on the ASX today very encouraging.

Cheers,
Logique


----------



## CamKawa (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's difficult for me to know where the markets heading from here. On one hand it's quite possible that XAO snakes it's way back up to 5000 over the coming months as a previous poster suggested or maybe it will sell off by the end of week. I've got no idea short term where this is heading.

One question I don't have an answer to as I haven't been following the market that long is has a bottom ever formed as result of government intervention in the past? How did bottoms form in 1933, 1987, S & L crisis, dot bomb etc?


----------



## Awesomandy (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> It's difficult for me to know where the markets heading from here. On one hand it's quite possible that XAO snakes it's way back up to 5000 over the coming months as a previous poster suggested or maybe it will sell off by the end of week. I've got no idea short term where this is heading.




There are indeed more than one options as to how it turns out in the short term, but even if it makes it way back to 5000 before going down again, it would still be a lower high than the previous high in September, so I would imagine that we are still in a down trend even if it goes back to 5000.


----------



## Ageo (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As others have mentioned before the excess money supply recently (governments pouring billions into the system) and along with other things will help the market bounce back. But once that dries up run for the hills


----------



## Nyden (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is it just me ... or is the rally not as strong as initially anticipated? Granted, 240 points is a pretty strong rally ... but considering the dow rose 11%? I'd have thought we'd see a whole lot more panic-buying (not wanting to miss the boat)

Perhaps she'll heavily run out of steam come the latter part of the day?

I don't think any news justifies the sort of gains we saw in the US overnight; global recession, anyone? :


----------



## MS+Tradesim (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nyden, I feel similarly. I've been waiting for the initial excitement to die off and as it does, the shares I'm looking at are falling off their early highs often to below their open prices. Test will be this arvo and close. But in my book this is the bear market version of a "correction" in a bull market. Nothing has really changed so far in the credit markets to my knowledge.


----------



## nomore4s (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Is it just me ... or is the rally not as strong as initially anticipated? Granted, 240 points is a pretty strong rally ... but considering the dow rose 11%? I'd have thought we'd see a whole lot more panic-buying (not wanting to miss the boat)
> 
> Perhaps she'll heavily run out of steam come the latter part of the day?
> 
> I don't think any news justifies the sort of gains we saw in the US overnight; global recession, anyone? :




Probably need to include yesterdays rally with todays.


----------



## Nyden (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Probably need to include yesterdays rally with todays.





Yes, but surely yesterdays rally didn't factor in an 11% gain? Where's the frenzy? Perhaps the fact that there is no frenzy is a good sign though


----------



## skyQuake (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bear trap rally today, similar in Dow, short coverinh haha


----------



## [t..o..m] (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"We've had a nice snapback rally in stocks today as we got that favorable piece of news about the investments in the banks," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at Morgan Asset Management, in Birmingham, Alabama.

"But these gains, this momentum, may not be sustainable. We'll see what happens tomorrow when the bond market reopens."

:batman:


----------



## nunthewiser (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Bear trap rally today, similar in Dow




agrees .... gotta luv the volatility ,


----------



## Sunder (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That's my feel as well, and it seems fairly unanimous here... But we're small time investors. Even all of us together, are not going to make a dent into amount of movement hedge funds and institutional investors make. I just hope that the institutional investors feel the same way.

My money is on that they do...


----------



## nikemi (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> Nyden, I feel similarly. I've been waiting for the initial excitement to die off and as it does, the shares I'm looking at are falling off their early highs often to below their open prices. Test will be this arvo and close. But in my book this is the bear market version of a "correction" in a bull market. Nothing has really changed so far in the credit markets to my knowledge.




As they said this morning on the news - "Stock Markets welcomed the news(coordinated actions etc), while credit markets hardly buldged."

These high jumps make me nervous at the current stage, more nervous than the big drops, seing there is not short selling even for hedging purposes once you get in at his inflated for the current situation price, there is nothing you can do when it starts falling but to ride it or sell it............. both not very profitable options


----------



## amory (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

it is not easy trying to read a lot into today's XAO ... except it has duly followed the Dow on up.

merely that the rubber band was vastly overstretched into oversold.  now that it has slackened a little, how is one to guess whereto from here?

it will take a few more days before a new trend emerges, in whichever direction of its choice.  no doubt about the Fed:  time & again they've rescued the dollar from a horrible fate.  I've been using this argument many times in the past, to explain why Gold hasn't got much of a chance.  but this would be the closest shave the US economy has had, & once again the Fed pulled a rabbit out of its hat.  you want to never underestimate uncle Sam!

after last night's mighty leap forward, a reaction could be on the cards.  my guess is, caution & some liquidity is still indicated.


----------



## sails (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Yes, but surely yesterdays rally didn't factor in an 11% gain? Where's the frenzy? Perhaps the fact that there is no frenzy is a good sign though




Might have been a bigger % up if we had the additional buying of short sellers covering (buying to close their positions) ...


----------



## Struzball (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hearing the general talk about stock markets in my office, it seems the general public opinion at the moment is that stocks are going back up and they've missed out on their chance for bargains, whereas last week they were all in a mad panic to switch their super to cash. 

Gives a fair indication of why things are happening the way they are I think.  Especially the rise today, I don't think it has anything to do with anything but the price.

So today and yesterday is everybody panicking and buying in to make sure they don't miss out on the bottom.

Next move is something will happen, ie, a drop in the DOW, another collapse, and everybody who bought in these last couple of days will realise the all ords isn't going to bounce back to 6800 over night and they'll sell madly again.

Because they lost all their money in this next big crash that will happen, they probably won't buy for a very long time, in which case will see a true bottom, where it will stay for quite a while.

I have no idea when/if this will happen but we'll see..


----------



## roland (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

After being pessimistic for so long now, it's hard not to remain so. Even after today's rise it seems that it really never gets there. Like others I am holding on to some pretty heavy percentage losses and out of the trading game.

Big rises like today only start to lick at my boots, need around 3 of these for me to free up some capital.

Now to see if the bungie zips her back in the other direction.


----------



## M34N (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



roland said:


> After being pessimistic for so long now, it's hard not to remain so. Even after today's rise it seems that it really never gets there. Like others I am holding on to some pretty heavy percentage losses and out of the trading game.
> 
> Big rises like today only start to lick at my boots, need around 3 of these for me to free up some capital.
> 
> Now to see if the bungie zips her back in the other direction.




I agree. I think too many people have been burnt for the past year now to just all of a sudden jump back in and think everything's A-OK again. We have had bounces like this before, think January of this year, and we've headed _much_ lower since then, and problems have gotten much worse since then too. So what makes it different now?

I used to trade regularly but it's more of a 'wait and see' approach now, and has been for the past year. Too many wild swings up, then just as fast down. When some stability returns, the market will continue to go up. Until then, it's a day traders market and you need tight stop losses otherwise that loss can quickly liquefy a good portion of your holdings.

Still feeling pessimistic here, and to me, nothing has changed fundamentally except governments across the world have started to acknowledge there actually is a problem. Once things become clearer and start to improve, only then will this once-burnt trader return.

As they say, once burnt, twice shy


----------



## MrBurns (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nothing has lasted more then a few days so far and the same will apply here.

The bailout - no effect
!% int drop  - no effect

Somehow throwing more money around doesnt impress me and I think the market will agree soon.


----------



## tech/a (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The derivative problem still remains.
How to unwind it is the issue.
All the government guarantee's do is cover all deposits.
Thats it.
If you think about it thats not a lot that governments are covering.
They arent covering anything else that banks maybe involved in.

So if a bank goes bust it wears everything else and the deposits are covered by governments.


----------



## MrBurns (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> The derivative problem still remains.
> How to unwind it is the issue.
> All the government guarantee's do is cover all deposits.
> Thats it.
> ...




It's a bold move aimed at confidence only, it's worked so far but if things hit the fan they wont be able to pay any more than the banks.

It's a bluff really.


----------



## roland (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> It's a bold move aimed at confidence only, it's worked so far but if things hit the fan they wont be able to pay any more than the banks.
> 
> It's a bluff really.




bluff or not, it has affected things. in my (very humble) opinion we all have to use these "bluffs" to put ourselves in a better position (or less worse position) with each bump and grind that eventuates


----------



## Julia (14 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> The derivative problem still remains.
> How to unwind it is the issue.
> All the government guarantee's do is cover all deposits.
> Thats it.
> ...



I thought they were also covering any interbank lending, i.e. if bank A lends to bank B, then bank B fails to come good with the repayment, then the government will make good the loss to Bank A.
I thought this was the measure designed to get banks lending to one another once again.
Guaranteeing deposit rates has nothing to do with easing the credit stall as far as I can see.  This aspect of the promise is clearly designed just to restore confidence amongst the population, was unnecessary in any rational sense, but is justified in that it makes everyone feel more secure.


If my understanding above is wrong, I'm happy for someone to correct me.


----------



## davo8 (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



roland said:


> After being pessimistic for so long now, it's hard not to remain so. Even after today's rise it seems that it really never gets there. Like others I am holding on to some pretty heavy percentage losses and out of the trading game.




Agreed. Just to put a figure on it, a good first target would be the support at 4000. Then there is the 50% retracement at 3900. After that is the old resistance levels at around 3500. But the big one is the bottom from back in 2003, which was close to 2700. That's close to a 60% retracement.

I've been out since Feb and although I was tempted to dabble yesterday, I can wait. We should be getting a few dismal profit reports soon...


----------



## Aussiejeff (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Agreed. Just to put a figure on it, a good first target would be the support at 4000. Then there is the 50% retracement at 3900. After that is the old resistance levels at around 3500. But the big one is the bottom from back in 2003, which was close to 2700. That's close to a 60% retracement.
> 
> I've been out since Feb and although I was tempted to dabble yesterday, I can wait. *We should be getting a few dismal profit reports soon...*




Yup. Like you, metinks a lot of Sep Qtr results are going to reveal a general malaise setting in, though I suspect much worse toxic shocks to company bottom lines will be "uncovered" during the Dec Qtr reporting period. 

aj


----------



## Ageo (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> So if a bank goes bust it wears everything else and the deposits are covered by governments.




And where does the government get the funds from to cover all the deposits?

It borrow's a little more..........


----------



## MrBurns (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Ageo said:


> And where does the government get the funds from to cover all the deposits?
> 
> It borrow's a little more..........




It wouldnt be able to that's where the fine print will come in, you'll get in back over 5 years or something like that and if they haven't got it then they'll change the rules again.


----------



## treefrog (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Julia said:


> Guaranteeing deposit rates has nothing to do with easing the credit stall as far as I can see.  This aspect of the promise is clearly designed just to restore confidence amongst the population, was unnecessary in any rational sense, but is justified in that it makes everyone feel more secure.



J,
there have been a few interviews with banker heavies of late and hard to recall exactly but I think stewart (NAB ceo and ABA exec) was saying the guaranteeing was needed because the overseas market was telling the Oz banks 'yep, good banking system mate, one of the best around with solid returns but the funds we invest/loan you are not gov. guaranteed so we will go elsewhere for now' and they were not able to get a reasonable share of available loot.


----------



## Aussiejeff (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Ageo said:


> And where does the government get the funds from to cover all the deposits?
> 
> It borrow's a little more..........




Why *borrow* when you can *PRINT* $AUBananaBuck$ for nuthin? The U$ and UK GuvMINT$ have led the way by flooding the planet with lot$ of pretty bit$ of confetti to paper over the crack$. $eem$ to have worked a treat with Wall-e$treet $o far..... $oon be able to roll around in bath$full of the $tuff like $crooge McDuck!


----------



## doctorj (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Ageo said:


> And where does the government get the funds from to cover all the deposits?
> 
> It borrow's a little more..........



No it's not!

There's so many big numbers floating around the mass media at the moment because they make great headlines.  They won't need to borrow a thing unless something goes wrong.

Take the German bail out for example - â‚¬500b was in the headlines... but if you look into it â‚¬420b was to guarantee interbank loans which money they won't need to spend unless a bank goes under. But that is less likely to happen as the main reason banks are going under is they're too afraid to lend to each other which won't be an issue if loans are govt guaranteed.

The remaining â‚¬80b is to be spent on recapitalisations.  It probably will mean more debt, but it'll buy equity for tax payers at what is arguably firesale prices.


----------



## Boggo (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just wondering how many jumped into various stocks yesterday morning, a few red lines and red faces around after that little sucker run I would think


----------



## Julia (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> J,
> there have been a few interviews with banker heavies of late and hard to recall exactly but I think stewart (NAB ceo and ABA exec) was saying the guaranteeing was needed because the overseas market was telling the Oz banks 'yep, good banking system mate, one of the best around with solid returns but the funds we invest/loan you are not gov. guaranteed so we will go elsewhere for now' and they were not able to get a reasonable share of available loot.



Thanks for that, treefrog.  Makes sense.


----------



## Sean K (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> Just wondering how many jumped into various stocks yesterday morning, a few red lines and red faces around after that little sucker run I would think



Need to qualify the perspective I think Boggo.

Maybe it depends on your time frame. If you have a 'long term' perspective, then between 3000 and 4000 seems to be a good opportunity. Some analysts were calling 'once in a generation' buying opportunity under 4200 (sorry no reference), but there's others calling 3400 ish as a bottom, so take your pick and time frame. 

Is it timing, or time in?


----------



## tech/a (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Is it timing, or time in?




Love this one Kenna's

A Financial Adviser friend of mine used (Past tense) this line all the time.

I gave him one of Radges.
*"Being wrong is OK
Its how long your wrong that will determine success or failure"*


----------



## Sean K (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Love this one Kenna's
> 
> A Financial Adviser friend of mine used (Past tense) this line all the time.
> 
> ...



Yes, I still have faith in my financial advisor who believes that it's time in, not timing, but he also believes in taking profits off the table and protecting capital. 

He's been a much much larger grizzly bear than WayneL for at least 3 years.

Can they exist together? 

I hope that I have bridged the gap, but I am way off highs experienced in April when some specific specs went balistic  ...  

Couldn't trade it because I was trying not to be killed in Venezuela at the time....

Anyway, I think we might be around a time where _time in_ is a good approach in the LONG term..

kennas


----------



## cartel31 (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lets start taking the predictions for tommorrow guys.

Right now the DOW is down on evernight trading by 78 points. XAO always follows the DOW blindly. I cant wait for the day when it will oneday break free.

Any way im thinking it will be a red day tm but just not sure how red.


----------



## MRC & Co (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cartel31 said:


> Right now the DOW is down on evernight trading by 78 points. XAO always follows the DOW blindly. I cant wait for the day when it will oneday break free.




lol.


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cartel31 said:


> Right now the DOW is down on evernight trading by 78 points. *XAO always follows the DOW blindly.* I cant wait for the day when it will oneday break free.




And I cannot wait for the day when people actually observe what happens and learn rather than making comments like that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## skyQuake (15 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> And I cannot wait for the day when people actually observe what happens and learn rather than making comments like that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




I certainly hope not! You may be rich and retired but then we have do deal with *gasp* _a rational market_


----------



## Sunder (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yes, I still have faith in my financial advisor who believes that it's time in, not timing, but he also believes in taking profits off the table and protecting capital.




I honestly think anyone who says that, has never seen a severe correction. They may have seen the small corrections which were too hard to pick, and by the time you saw the trend change, most of it had worked its way out... BUt when the market corrects 20, 30, 40, 80%, anyone who says "Don't worry, time will fix it!" all the way down, needs to have their FSL revoked. 

Would anyone who bought Japan stocks or property in the 1980s say "I'm not concerned about the last 30 years, if I hold these till my great grandchildren are 18, they'll turn a great profit"?

Would anyone who went all in the day before black tuesday say that? Before the tech bubble burst? Who borrowed 1 million dollars to dump into shares based super last year?

The reason financial advisors say it's time in, not timing, is to cover their own rears. You can't pick the very bottom or the very top of anything, but the market does move in trends. If you hold onto a trend too long the wrong direction, then I feel you're incompetent, not just using the "Time in" theory.

The first time I hear "This time it's different"/"It's a new paradigm, the fundamentals have changed"/"There won't be a reversion to the mean", I know it's time to get out of the market.


----------



## Sean K (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> I honestly think anyone who says that, has never seen a severe correction.



Yes he has. 

Part of taking some off the table is to reallocate assets and weight yourself to the classes you believe will outperform. Like cash for example, or being short. That is being in the market. 

Even Faber and Rogers have been in the market the past year. 

Sorry if I've misrepresented what I meant.


----------



## tech/a (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Going to be ugly today.

We are now going to see the low of 10/10/08 tested in the next few days.
If this holds we could then see a period of consolidation.
We may also see (If the low holds) a higher low made,inducating some stability.

A fall straight through the low and we see the next stop 3300 ish


----------



## tex.willer (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

With BHP down 17% on NYSE and XJO being heavily weighted by BHP, quite possible the low will be broken. Based on current commodity prices, the resource stocks seem quite overpriced.


----------



## chops_a_must (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> With BHP down 17% on NYSE and XJO being heavily weighted by BHP, quite possible the low will be broken. Based on current commodity prices, the resource stocks seem quite overpriced.




We will test on open IMO.


----------



## Sunder (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Like cash for example, or being short. That is being in the market.




Fair enough. I accept that. However, in a time like this when people move from "speculative stocks" to "Defensive stocks" (which have lost 40% from peak and are likely to keep losing this morning), then I think that's real rear covering. Smart money would have moved out. Really smart money would have shorted.


----------



## skyQuake (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tex.willer said:


> With BHP down 17% on NYSE and XJO being heavily weighted by BHP, quite possible the low will be broken. Based on current commodity prices, the resource stocks seem quite overpriced.





BHP in AUD terms is down 10.51% @ $26.58 from US close


----------



## roland (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well, 10% falls don't mean as much any more since I am only losing 10% value of my remaining 40% - gets to a point where I just don't really care anymore


----------



## saiter (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Damn, ASX at 4038 on open!


----------



## Struzball (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



roland said:


> well, 10% falls don't mean as much any more since I am only losing 10% value of my remaining 40% - gets to a point where I just don't really care anymore




Consolidation?


----------



## $20shoes (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'd be surprised if we didn't hold our 10th Oct low by today's close. At some point soon we have to inhale before we can blow more wind into our sails (whichever way she goes). 

Point of reference regards last few Bollinger expansions....if we can hold these lows we will have another run down that seems to exhaust as the green bands expand out to 28%. Note, its not usual that the lower red band can keep separating further away and to the outside of the longer term green bands without some pullback (I know you can't see it well on this pic).


----------



## M34N (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

With the movement on BHP & RIO today, you'd almost swear they were both ready to go bust? They dropped about as much as Babcock & Brown today.

Must say I'm very tempted to go into RIO at these prices, I never even thought with this crisis we would see it trading in this price range again.

Only time will tell how much lower it can go, but another day like this and I think it will really tempt me to buy heavily.

Anyone else feeling this itch?


----------



## explod (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> With the movement on BHP & RIO today, you'd almost swear they were both ready to go bust? They dropped about as much as Babcock & Brown today.
> 
> Must say I'm very tempted to go into RIO at these prices, I never even thought with this crisis we would see it trading in this price range again.
> 
> ...




No itch with me.  Fear will continue to push things down.   With the US going down the tubes our market will follow the Dow all the way, China is shutting some of its doors.    I had the idea some months ago that if BHP hit $20 I would be looking seriously at it.   With what we have witnessed in the last few weeks I think it will be a LONG time before even blue chips recover.

Dont' follow me, not qualified and have been wrong before.


----------



## Sean K (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Anyone else feeling this itch?



Yes, had my finger on the trigger, but I want to see if the previous XAO low holds. If not, then potenatial to fall to the 3400 ish range and all other stocks will go with it. 

So, I am on the sidelines till that event.


----------



## shag (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

my finger slipped, so i bought bhp....
i guess if it drops to 18, thats not tooo bad...
at least i got them close to the days lows.
im just hoping thie is the double dip some have been talking of.


----------



## Struzball (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't particularly go by the numbers or the charts, but the mentality behind it all.

What exactly made everybody in the last bear markets decide to start re-investing and create the new bull?

Obviously it wasn't 'bargains', or 'bailouts'.  I wasn't around for any previous ones but I'm interested to see what the media/general public start saying once we reach the turn around point.


----------



## cordelia (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yes, had my finger on the trigger, but I want to see if the previous XAO low holds. If not, then potenatial to fall to the 3400 ish range and all other stocks will go with it.
> 
> So, I am on the sidelines till that event.




The trouble is even if you buy in at the low of the day you may be faced with a gap down the next day.....so where do you put your stops?   Bit too risky for me and unneccessary risk to boot...


----------



## Ageo (16 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cordelia said:


> The trouble is even if you buy in at the low of the day you may be faced with a gap down the next day.....so where do you put your stops?   Bit too risky for me and unneccessary risk to boot...




Cordelia when most people buy on fundamentals they are buying for long term which usually means they dont have stops in place. Although they can have medium term put options to hedge themselves (also called a protective put strategy).


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Pretty disappointing morning but not all that unexpected with the shorts holding the upper hand this week. They have now pushed back below where we started the week.

Will be looking for the Friday afternoon unwind. In this case a rally into the close??


----------



## Sunburnt Land (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A rally into the close would be very welcome TH.

ASX is pretty pi$$ weak as usual, mirroring the Dow on the falls but not on the rises.


----------



## Frank D (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If there is going to be any support and short-covering into the close today...

4063 should hold, and normal short covering after 2:50pm, which could see the SPI back around 4172.

Below 4063 and I don't like the chances, as there is a maket path to continue towards the 5-day lows...

 whether it gets down to the 5-day lows on Friday is another thing altogther.


----------



## korrupt_1 (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

mother of all fades...

shocking day... perfect bull trap rally last night....

feels like there's no new buyers... the only traders are sellers and the only buyers are those shorters covering back.

only saving grace is for a small short covering into the close...

3800 clearly on the SPI's target


----------



## tex.willer (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Unless one is a super-short term trader, with the volatility so high and us trading in completely different time zone from the epicenter of the action (NYSE) why would one bother to buy something? Plus, commodities are getting slaughtered with the end nowhere to be seen.


----------



## treefrog (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

don't expect the big end to hold the market up - they are leading it down today - 
XTL S&P/ASX 20 [XTL] 2,356.300 -33.900 (-1.4%)


----------



## kotim (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There will be no strong closing rally this afternoon, Whilst the dow had an upnight, it was only 60% or so of the previous days down side, so no strength as of dow close.  It means there is more risk to the downside atthe moment and in the days of 5-10% falls who wants to risk their money.

The AUS gov't says apparenlty there is 2% growth next year, yet they have decided to substantailly prime the economy at substantial cost to the surplus.  If we genuinely are to have 2% growth next year then there is no need to prime the spending like he has.

The gov't has clearly known/suspected for some time that the indications are that the whole world is going into recession, including us, but they keep talking it up.  Can't blame them I suppose becasue whilst we would all like to know the real depth of their concern, it would devestate the markets with the psychological swings it causes on peoples minds.


----------



## CamKawa (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> The gov't has clearly known/suspected for some time that the indications are that the whole world is going into recession, including us, but they keep talking it up. Can't blame them I suppose becasue whilst we would all like to know the real depth of their concern, it would devestate the markets with the psychological swings it causes on peoples minds.



If the Aus economy does tank hard the electorate may quite wrongly blame 747 for its woes. He may be out on his **** at the end of the term, talking it up makes the most political sense in IMHO.


----------



## Snakey (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

testing the 3939 lows now and struggling but seems to be holding ...US tested lows last night and failed followed by good recovery. Should see positive results for monday good luck to those long


----------



## wildthing (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Double Bottom?
Hard to suggest anything nowadays!


----------



## Snakey (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Failed to break lows ...condolences to those short. Anyway.. shorties got enough cash now ....its time for longies to have some.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As far as analysis goes we have left the bell curve far behind.

We are in the realm of Nick Taleb's commentaries.

Chaotic theory is not that well advanced unfortunately to apply to the xao.

Fib has value.

gg


----------



## Sean K (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Snakey said:


> Failed to break lows ...condolences to those short. Anyway.. shorties got enough cash now ....its time for longies to have some.



Yes, today, so far.

Tomorrow the US may go up 5% and then down 15%....

The rollercoaster continues.


----------



## Snakey (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yes, today, so far.
> 
> Tomorrow the US may go up 5% and then down 15%....
> 
> The rollercoaster continues.




Yes, today important day...though commodity and bank stocks pulling us down hard... lucky i not invested in those has beens.
have to sit and watch it all unfold.
Maybe Australia has not found the bottom yet?


----------



## Aussiejeff (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What a weird close for the financials. Most major banks *down* 4-5% but most small regional banks *up* around 5%? What gives there?


----------



## dhukka (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> What a weird close for the financials. Most major banks *down* 4-5% but most small regional banks *up* around 5%? What gives there?




Most major banks? What are you smoking?

*NAB* *-4.85%* 
*ANZ* *-2.77%*
*WBC* *-2.36%*
* CBA* *-2.33%*, 

*BEN* *+3.18%*
*BOQ** +3.70*


----------



## treefrog (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> What a weird close for the financials. Most major banks *down* 4-5% but most small regional banks *up* around 5%? What gives there?




takeovers targets a factor??.....................................................................


----------



## barry593 (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Shortsell ban lifted today ??


----------



## awg (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> The AUS gov't says apparenlty there is 2% growth next year, yet they have decided to substantailly prime the economy at substantial cost to the surplus.  If we genuinely are to have 2% growth next year then there is no need to prime the spending like he has.
> 
> The gov't has clearly known/suspected for some time that the indications are that the whole world is going into recession, including us, but they keep talking it up.  Can't blame them I suppose becasue whilst we would all like to know the real depth of their concern, it would devestate the markets with the psychological swings it causes on peoples minds.




In all my life, I think I can only ever recall one politician saying " yes, I think we will have a recession"

That was George W Bush a few weeks ago, and look were that got him.

They just wont do it.

Paul Keating, bless his socks, still gets bagged out for his "recession we had to have remarks" 

If anyone ever expects a politician or paid media commentator to give a leading indicator, or decent heads up, they are kidding themselves.

In fact, you could almost take the exact opposite of their statements, and use that to make fin decisions and i reckon you would be miles ahead!

like FPs...paid optimists!

First half is a quote from another users post, dont know why it didnt show up as a full quote?


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



barry593 said:


> Shortsell ban lifted today ??



 Nope. but still plenty in the futs.


----------



## MRC & Co (18 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Pretty disappointing morning but not all that unexpected with the shorts holding the upper hand this week. They have now pushed back below where we started the week.
> 
> Will be looking for the Friday afternoon unwind. In this case a rally into the close??




Good call!  On that note, do you actually often trade the 4-4:30 timeframe on the futs?


----------



## OzWaveGuy (18 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Well, it's certainly raining at the moment. The DJI and S&P500 are unwinding aggressively in wave 3 of 3's. As for the XAO, it's working impulsively in 5 waves lower. As previously discussed, there was a chance that the XAO could have been an expanded flat correction on the hourly chart to complete wave II circle, as of the close yesterday an expanded flat was out of the picture.
> 
> In any case, as previously discussed, the market action after the completion of wave II circle meant aggressive downside momentum in wave III circle (or to possibly subdivide further - most likely). The financial sector has been holding up in a sideways wave 2 and should now start to break down to push the XAO lower.
> 
> ...




On Friday the 10th Oct, the Elliottwave count strongly indicated further downside on the XAO before we would start to see some wave 4 bounces before heading to new lows. The bounces appear to be happening now, but there needs to be further downside before the larger wave *iv* up commences. 

Where could the wave count take us? I've added a rough structure on the 15min chart of how the market could unfold over the coming week(s). I've taken a estimate of where wave *iii* down will end. I've used a mid-call of 138% the length of wave *i* (not shown) which is around 3400 on the XAO (as shown), before wave *iv* up starts. 

Of course, the usual caveats apply with forecasting in this forum, but the EW counts seem to be unfolding in roughly the sequence that has been discussed previously.

I've changed the wave labeling slightly to cater for further subdivisions that have unfolded - but basically the overall higher level counts remain intact. More or less subdivisions of the current wave structure will affect the termination points as discussed here. Time will eventually show us these answers.

I haven't included any alternate counts (and there are other scenarios), but the count below is the preferred.

I'm traveling OS at the moment so I'm getting to see plenty of CNN, MSNBC financial news (which I've turned off) and the information is overwhelming, conflicting and sometimes desperate in trying provide the viewer an answer on why the market is reacting the way it is (This will only get worse as the bear market wears on). 

The poll CNNMoney ran recently hit the nail on the head, CNNMoney asked  what will cause the market to recover, and the answer a high % (80% from memory) of people responded with was "time" - which is very clear to me and is indicated in the longer term EW wave counts (4-6+ year correction of the bull run from the mid 70s)


----------



## treefrog (18 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> On Friday the 10th Oct, the Elliottwave count strongly indicated further downside on the XAO .............



see above
nice post OWG - clear and unusually simple for you EWers


----------



## $20shoes (18 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The S&P500 is forming a diamond bottom. The Dow is pausing within a pennant formation (could it reverse in the short term?). Both indices are showing the first signs of contraction, though it is too early to call this confidently. The XAO is looking more gloomy than both the US indices right now...I'm not suggesting we're not going immediately lower. But there is a weight of evidence that gives me reason to pause.


----------



## davo8 (18 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> ...which is around 3400 on the XAO (as shown), before wave *iv* up starts.




That looked like a pretty complicated way to forecast a simple 50% pullback from the peak. The all time high was 6854 intra-day. Half that is 3427. Done.

I'm still kind of expecting either the 3900 or 3500 support levels to hold, but the speed of the drop suggests it will go lower. I can't wait! All those lovely cheap stocks!


----------



## tech/a (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> All those lovely cheap stocks!




Which will be at a value which is more realistic in these climates.
Don't expect a reversal in trend to be meteoric.


----------



## MrBurns (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> I can't wait! All those lovely cheap stocks!




Not cheap just revalued down, that's their real value now..... understand ?, not cheap. If they were cheap we'd all be buying them and we're not, get it ?

(people just don't seem to get it)


----------



## Sunder (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Not cheap just revalued down, that's their real value now..... understand ?, not cheap. If they were cheap we'd all be buying them and we're not, get it ?
> 
> (people just don't seem to get it)




It does amaze me how people fall for the "cheap" thought. It's like a house in a mining boom might be worth $500k, and a seller lists it up for that. Over a period of a year, mine engineers warn that there's not much more 6 to 12 months left of minerals in this mine. 

The owner of the house figuring it won't be worth that much any more in 6 to 12 months time, cuts the price to 400k to sell it faster.

Now... Knowing that the population of this town will be 0 in 18 months, when the mine is dry and everyone has moved out, is the house at 400k cheap, or not?

That's what's happening to shares, yet mass media is saying we should all be buying into shares which are now at bargain prices. Yet, I'd say a share making $2 per share at $10 during an economic boom time, is better value than a $5 share making $50c per share during a recession. 

The shares are only "cheap" if you (not to anyone in specific, asking a rhetorical question here)  expect last year's performance to continue into next year. Do you expect BHP to be selling as much iron ore into China? Do you expect CBA to continue with the low rate of default, and handing out massive mortgages? If not, upon what basis do you call these shares cheap?

These aren't bargains. They're a fire sale for damaged (but still functioning - except maybe Centro... And MFS... And.. Never mind) assets.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> That looked like a pretty complicated way to forecast a simple 50% pullback from the peak. The all time high was 6854 intra-day. Half that is 3427. Done.
> 
> I'm still kind of expecting either the 3900 or 3500 support levels to hold, but the speed of the drop suggests it will go lower. I can't wait! All those lovely cheap stocks!




Just to clarify - this chart is a snapshot of one 'small' leg down (wave iii) on a massive correction the XAO is currently enduring. The chart does not show or imply 50% drop from the high before the low is in place. 

Predicting the future is always complicated as the road can always take less or more winding curves, higher or lower declines even though the destination is relatively the same. Understanding the wave detail in shorter term charts helps understand the bigger picture and thus understanding the psychology of the herd at various degrees of trend. This will help a trader/investor to know when to get in or out, esp if your an option trader that is exposed to time decay.

As for the bigger picture FC, the 100 year chart of the XAO shows detail that doesn't support the XAO hitting the lows that many have discussed here in the forum. This is one area that EW is very good at - looking at all degrees of trend from 100+ yrs down to the minute.

On a 100yr scale the current declines are tiny (at the moment) compared to the previous 100yr market action. Although one should be very aware that at some point in time almost all stocks/indexes return to or break their respective long term trend lines. Has anyone seen where this trend line hit would be in terms of a number of the XAO index - scary indeed.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As briefly covered here...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=351515&postcount=5213

Here is the 100yr chart from the ASX, which quite frankly makes the current drop on the XAO insignificant when compared to the previous 100 years of progress.

For the purposes of this discussion, I'm focusing more on the market action since 1975. 

For those who are unfamiliar with Elliottwave, once 5 waves up (denoted as 3 waves up and 2 corrections) is complete, a 3 wave correction will usually occur and land the market back down in the vicinity of the previous 4th wave (there are a few rules on how all this works). 

This can be seen on the minute, 15min, 1hr, 1 day, weekly, monthly and yearly charts. It's simply a fundamental way that progress works. You've all heard the phrase 2 steps fwd, 1 step back - this is actually close to how the sum of all progress is measured - but instead it's roughly considered as 5 steps fwd, 3 steps back.

On the chart below, 5 waves from the mid 70s appears to be complete. A 3 wave correction to return to the 1987 market range is definitely on the cards and is supported in the current wave structures unfolding on indexes around the globe.

As mentioned in the post above, hitting of the 100yr long term trend line is also something that should be considered in the analysis. I haven't paid too much attention to it here as the last 30yrs of market action is plenty to look at. Today's unfolding bust of the credit boom that started from the 70's era certainly supports a correction of some kind whether one cares about EW wave structures or not.

One thing's for certain - the mainstream media and very few financial advisers are barely giving anyone this type of view and I cringe when i hear "the market will always recover - hold for the long term". The questions that need asking are: what do you define as the long term? How long will it take to get back to the levels we had in November 2007? The response I've heard recently from one of the news channels is: "well it's good for the economy to work a few more years after your expected retirement". 

The market will recover whether it hits the 100 yr trend line or not, but does that recovery fit into your timeframe for a successful future? For most people I know who have/are retiring - i doubt it.


----------



## Whiskers (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> The S&P500 is forming a diamond bottom. The Dow is pausing within a pennant formation (could it reverse in the short term?). Both indices are showing the first signs of contraction, though it is too early to call this confidently. The XAO is looking more gloomy than both the US indices right now...I'm not suggesting we're not going immediately lower. But there is a weight of evidence that gives me reason to pause.




If I may add to your chart $20shoes, there is also a very good morning star formation there (three candles underlined in blue).

I have literally banked money on the evening star at the top of extreme bull runs and am quietly confident that this correction is well overdone too, as indicated by the morning stars... and in EW terms it looks like a minor wave i and ii are in with iii (which typically extends), ready to launch.


----------



## $20shoes (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> As briefly covered here...
> 
> Here is the 100yr chart from the ASX, which quite frankly makes the current drop on the XAO insignificant when compared to the previous 100 years of progress.




You're starting to scare me OzWaveGuy, but thanks for the analysis, however depressing ;-) Would you happen to have a higher resolution image of that 100 year chart??

If so, maybe you could upload it to somewhere like http://transferbigfiles.com/
and paste the link here in this forum.


----------



## davo8 (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> It does amaze me how people fall for the "cheap" thought. The shares are only "cheap" if you (not to anyone in specific, asking a rhetorical question here)  expect last year's performance to continue into next year.




Please give me a little credit. I'm a value investor with a liking for dividends, so what I see is lots of cheap stocks, some of which are bound to be good value. The challenge is finding them, but even if I don't get them all right, the bias will be to the upside.

I don't plan to buy banks or other financials, because I think the business model is broken. I'll reconsider that, but not soon. Forget developers too, most of the REIT sector and infrastructure or anything heavily dependent on debt.

However, stocks with cash on hand, free cash flow, solid business model, at the right price will provide a much better return than cash over the next several years.


----------



## davo8 (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Here is the 100yr chart from the ASX, which quite frankly makes the current drop on the XAO insignificant when compared to the previous 100 years of progress.




I don't buy long term trend lines like this that ignores CPI. We had a big bout of inflation in the 1970s-80s, which caused a big boost in the XAO. There is no realistic prospect of returning to that trend line, because the scale has changed.

If you can find a 100 yr XAO rebased on CPI you will find quite a different and more believable trend in recent years. I think you'll find we're quite close to that trend.

Adjusting for CPI doesn't affect waves, so if waves are your thing you'll get much the same results.


----------



## tech/a (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oz Wave.

the count on the 100 yr chart cant be correct as Wave 3 is the shortest wave.
One of the laws of Elliott is that *Wave 3 cannot be the shortest.*


----------



## theasxgorilla (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> I don't buy long term trend lines like this that ignores CPI. We had a big bout of inflation in the 1970s-80s, which caused a big boost in the XAO. There is no realistic prospect of returning to that trend line, because the scale has changed.
> 
> If you can find a 100 yr XAO rebased on CPI you will find quite a different and more believable trend in recent years. I think you'll find we're quite close to that trend.
> 
> Adjusting for CPI doesn't affect waves, so if waves are your thing you'll get much the same results.




Great point Davo.  You'll get a more "believeable" trend, however even CPI is inconsistent and subjective.


----------



## motorway (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Great point Davo.  You'll get a more "believeable" trend, however even CPI is inconsistent and subjective.




Yes Yes Yes

and even time is inconsistent

But a trend of meaningful action Vs reaction ?

Is a Constant 

Yin and Yang

and the flow of prices ( the curvy line ) 

The difference between
The shape of clouds ( actual Supply and Demand )

and the shapes people think they see in clouds

( most what passes for TA )

The visble chart dates from 1990

2% x 1  

Objective chart
of the waves of demand and supply

getting a bulge in volume

motorway


----------



## MS+Tradesim (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Also, what exactly is being mapped as the "XAO" in these charts prior to Jan.1980 when the XAO was established? Unless the historical data was compiled with the same methodology or 'normalised' in some significant way then throwing up a 100 yr chart of the "XAO" seems to lack meaning.


----------



## motorway (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Compare !

VOLUME
TREND
CONGESTION

motorway


----------



## OzWaveGuy (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Oz Wave.
> 
> the count on the 100 yr chart cant be correct as Wave 3 is the shortest wave.
> One of the laws of Elliott is that *Wave 3 cannot be the shortest.*




Not sure I follow TA. Wave 3 is the longest on this log chart in terms of the adjusted log value. Can you elaborate.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> You're starting to scare me OzWaveGuy, but thanks for the analysis, however depressing ;-) Would you happen to have a higher resolution image of that 100 year chart??
> 
> If so, maybe you could upload it to somewhere like http://transferbigfiles.com/
> and paste the link here in this forum.




Here you go, it looks like the ASX has updated it so it's now current. http://www.asx.com.au/products/pdf/share_price_movements.pdf

Don't be scared or depressed (i overcame that some time ago) about this possible scenario unfolding. Be prepared, there will be opportunities that unfold in the gloom, and as usual when the gloom is the darkest you will know that a bottom is at hand. Contrarian indicators apply in both bull and bear markets.


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here is a closer up shot.(click on image to expand)

Wave ... what do you mean by "Contrarian indicators apply in both bull and bear markets"?


----------



## Whiskers (19 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Motorway your P&F chart seems to suggest the XAO has about bottomed bottomed out on the trend line... and talking of trend lines it seems the XAO has about bottomed out on the post 87 trendline.

The Dow seems to have broken the post 87 crash uptrend twice. Does that mean an extraordinary rebound will occur?

The trends since the 2007 high seems to show considerable convergance. Does that mean some sort of equilibrium... to turnaround?


----------



## OzWaveGuy (20 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Here is a closer up shot.(click on image to expand)
> 
> Wave ... what do you mean by "Contrarian indicators apply in both bull and bear markets"?




Contrarian indicators are a reasonable identifier that the opposite will or is about to happen. 

In 1969, the Boeing 747 was introduced into service and the BAC Concorde's first flight was in March the same year. This was a signal that the prior excesses had run their course and thus a correction was at hand - and so it was, pushing into a aggressive 5yr bear market. 

Today, the A380's first flight was in 2005, with an in-services date of 25th Oct 2007 with Singapore Airlines - this was a signal to me 3yrs ago that a the top was at hand. Sure enough, exactly 7 days after the in-service date of the A380, the XAO topped - a correction of the prior excesses had begun.

In 1999/2000, the mood was so optimistic there were a series of investment books published - Dow 36000: Published Nov 2000, Dow 40000: Published Jun 1999 and Dow 100000: Published Sep 1999. All were contrarian indicators to indicate that a top was at hand, and so it was.

The same is true in a bear market, when the gloom is at it's worst, along will come opportunity. Winning with Dow Losers: Published Dec 2003 and 
Divorcing the Dow: Published Jan 2003, again were contrarian indicators that shone the light on those that could see a bottom was in place.  

The contrarian can drive people crazy, as they are literally the only one sitting in a crowd with an opposing view. This is where many leaders in companies or government show the crowd the way forward out of the gloom and into a new era, but there is usually a cost in doing this.

Interestingly Kevin Rudd was voted in at the top of a magnificent bull market run - a contrarian indicator? Will he be the right person to lead in hard times - time will certainly tell.


----------



## Whiskers (20 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> If I may add to your chart $20shoes, there is also *a very good morning star formation *there (three candles underlined in blue).
> 
> I have literally banked money on the evening star at the top of extreme bull runs and am quietly confident that this correction is well overdone too, as indicated by the morning stars... and in EW terms it looks like a minor wave i and ii are in with iii (which typically extends), ready to launch.




XAO climbing steadily.

The $64 question is will it close above 4097.35... to qualify for a trifecta of morning stars... Dow, S&P 500 and XAO?


----------



## Whiskers (20 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I do believe we have the morning star trifecta. 

Pretty reliable sign of a bullish trend reversal. 

Oh, and the US indicies have turned to green, about 2%.  

Wouldn't wanna be a bear tonight or tomorrow I don't think.


----------



## Frank D (20 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*SPI Daily and 5-day pattern*

This was the pattern from Friday :- 4063.

Once above 4063 the expectation is a rotating back into the 50% 
levels.

This price action doesn't tell me much other than it's rotated back into
 the 50% levels:- it was going to occur on Friday or today.

Personally I would like the see market continue back towards the October breakouts @ 4434, so I can get out of my resource stocks from Friday's
 lows :- BHP and RIO.

And it wouldn't surprise me to see the market down around the Weekly lows either.


----------



## treefrog (20 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I do believe we have the morning star trifecta.
> 
> Pretty reliable sign of a bullish trend reversal.
> 
> ...




not so sure of the candles reliability whisk.
http://premium.working-money.com/wm/display.asp?art=329
"I analyzed 575 American stocks/bonds over a period of 15*20 years, from the early 1980s to the present. Using MetaStock's definition for candlestick patterns, those being international standards, I identified each candlestick formation and observed the trend starting from the day after the formation occurred. I looked for about 40 patterns and tabulated each trend's subsequent rise, decline, or neutral movement. My goal was to get statistical percentages on the most reliable candlestick formations". Giovanni Maiani


----------



## Porper (20 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Wouldn't wanna be a bear tonight or tomorrow I don't think.




I would rather be short than long.In fact my only positions are short.

A lot of talk about the bottom being in.So it probably isn't.

Plenty of time to go before I become a bull.Of course we will get the short sharp bounces.Very difficult to pick them, a lot easier to short after the corrections to the main trend.


----------



## Whiskers (20 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> not so sure of the candles reliability whisk.
> http://premium.working-money.com/wm/display.asp?art=329
> "I analyzed 575 American stocks/bonds over a period of 15*20 years, from the early 1980s to the present. Using MetaStock's definition for candlestick patterns, those being international standards, I identified each candlestick formation and *observed the trend starting from the day after the formation occurred*. I looked for about 40 patterns and tabulated each trend's subsequent rise, decline, or neutral movement. My goal was to get statistical percentages on the most reliable candlestick formations". Giovanni Maiani




That's interesting treefrog, but I can see a *serious flaw *with this guy's research method straight off.

He says he is tracking the trend movement... on the basis of one candle the day after the formation of the pattern. One candle, especially the immediate one after the formation isn't a trend. 



> The second column shows the percentage of the total found, and the last column shows the percentage that preceded a rise, fall, or sideways movement *on the following day*




It is not uncommon for the candle the day after to close lower than the last candle making the pattern... the DJIA morning star for example is lower the following few days but not a new low, so the trend reversal, uptrend is still intact.

PS: Porper, I really like the evening and morning star patterns... especially a trifecta of them. That's one hell-of-a-coincidence eh.


----------



## treefrog (20 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> That's interesting treefrog, but I can see a *serious flaw *with this guy's research method straight off.
> 
> He says he is tracking the trend movement... on the basis of one candle the day after the formation of the pattern. One candle, especially the immediate one after the formation isn't a trend.







Whiskers said:


> Wouldn't wanna be a bear *tonight or tomorrow *I don't think.




1) sorry, thought you were referring to tonight's/tomorrows candles:
2) you might have to get a lot of candle pattern texts changed too - most state the completion of the pattern is the signal, with the following candle confirming - not waiting for an uptrend to be confirmed (a higher low) - what I understood the researcher to be on about, but do agree there is also a lot of reference to trend reversals along with the hocus pocus

this is the criteria from _americanbulls.com_
Definition:*Bullish Morning Star*
This is a three-candlestick formation that signals a major bottom. It is composed of a first long black body, a second small real body, white or black, gapping lower to form a star. These two candlesticks define a basic star pattern. The third is a white candlestick that closes well into the first session’s black real body. *Third candlestick shows that the market turned bullish now.*


----------



## tech/a (20 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I do believe we have the morning star trifecta.
> 
> Pretty reliable sign of a bullish trend reversal.
> 
> .





All it's saying is that the crowd suffers from exactly the same psychology world wide.

Like all patterns they are indications.
All can and do fail.
All you can and should do is have a trade plan to take advantage of them and how to mitigate your risk if they go wrong.
Most of all wait for trades to come to you.


----------



## Whiskers (20 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> 1) sorry, thought you were referring to tonight's/tomorrows candles:
> 2) you might have to get a lot of candle pattern texts changed too - most state the completion of the pattern is the signal, with the following candle confirming - not waiting for an uptrend to be confirmed (a higher low) - what I understood the researcher to be on about, but do agree there is also a lot of reference to trend reversals along with the hocus pocus
> 
> this is the criteria from _americanbulls.com_
> ...




Yeah, my literature calls the third candle the confirmation candle, which should extend at least half way into the real body of the first candle. The three candles make the pattern.

It's a bit unclear to me, but I got the impression he was tracking the candle after the formation is complete, ie in this case the one after the third in the formation (white candle confirmation). 

Ah yes it's still possible for the XAO or even the US to go flat or marginally lower, but not a new low and the morning star still be in tact on a trend reversal, but all things considered and especially that the Dow and S&P seem to have completed a minor wave i and ii and the futures turning well green, I like the odds of the US up tonight and if thats the case, better than even bet we'll be up tomorrow.

PS:


tech/a said:


> All it's saying is that the crowd suffers from exactly the same psychology world wide.




Yes indeed... and I'm thinking with gusto.

Still amazed that we now have a trifecta... incredible.


----------



## tech/a (20 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> I would rather be short than long.In fact my only positions are short.
> 
> A lot of talk about the bottom being in.So it probably isn't.
> 
> Plenty of time to go before I become a bull.Of course we will get the short sharp bounces.Very difficult to pick them, a lot easier to short after the corrections to the main trend.





Pete I'm of the opinion we need to have a rally before having the final drop.

It seems to be setting up that way.
Id like to see a slow down in volatility with a change in consecutive up days from down.For a long while its been 3 or 4 down and one or two up.
If this reverses we could see the rally back towards 5000 I'm expecting.
But this current low is not likely to be the lowest---at this point in time.

In my opinion.


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> especially that the Dow and S&P seem to have completed a minor wave i and ii and the futures turning well green, I like the odds of the US up tonight and if thats the case, better than even bet we'll be up tomorrow.




Opens counter to the trend have very bad stats whiskers. That's trading 101.

You are better off wishing for down opens than green ones.


----------



## Ageo (20 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Pete I'm of the opinion we need to have a rally before having the final drop.
> 
> It seems to be setting up that way.
> Id like to see a slow down in volatility with a change in consecutive up days from down.For a long while its been 3 or 4 down and one or two up.
> ...




Interesting you say that Tech as the only short position i will place is if the XJO hits 5000..... (im not into short term trades as such)

All this money being pumped in surely will have to rally the markets in some way


----------



## Porper (21 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Pete I'm of the opinion we need to have a rally before having the final drop.




More than possible John.

My count has us as now in a possible sub wave 4.Wave 2 was sharp so I am expecting this wave 4 to be longer in time  but also sideways and choppy.

If we rally above 4575.20 then my lower time frame count is wrong and will re-evaluate then.

Also Elliot Wave apart, we haven't had a rally really since March,  we can't go on like this for ever.

Also, not being able to short ASX stocks has investors on the sidelines itching to get back in.Once the herd start buying we could get a massive rally.Trying to time it will be a skill few have.


----------



## mrgroundwork (21 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

short selling ban on non-financials set to continue to late november...

short selling ban on financials set to continue to late january...


----------



## stoner (21 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> On Friday the 10th Oct, the Elliottwave count strongly indicated further downside on the XAO before we would start to see some wave 4 bounces before heading to new lows. The bounces appear to be happening now, but there needs to be further downside before the larger wave *iv* up commences.
> 
> Where could the wave count take us? I've added a rough structure on the 15min chart of how the market could unfold over the coming week(s). I've taken a estimate of where wave *iii* down will end. I've used a mid-call of 138% the length of wave *i* (not shown) which is around 3400 on the XAO (as shown), before wave *iv* up starts.
> 
> ...




Hello OZG.

I am new to Elliott Wave Theory(as well as these boards). Have been looking at EWT on and off for the last 2 years.

I am wondering if you can explain your numbering of this chart as you have the upward  swing marked as (II) smaller in size than II. Please correct me if I am wrong, but should waves of larger degree not be bigger in length than those of smaller degrees? Also after circled wave 4 you have not labelled the small upward move just prior (1). 

It seems there are quite a few wave count variations possible here. I notice that you (your count) calls for further downside. The market reached an extreme on Black Friday with large volume and a capitulation move down. These are the types of moves that usually end bear markets or at least halt the downside for quite a few months. The VXO, (the predecessor to the VIX) in the USA reached an extreme FEAR level recently. These sorts of levels have not been seen since the 1987 crash. I find this a better tool to use to gauge a bear market rather than wave counts. As such I have been adding to my longs on pullbacks. 

The current decline from the peak was a 47% drop here and the DJI. If we follow the model that this move down was wave A(which I am), then wave B is usually approximately 50% rally of the decline.
 If you look back in history… crash of 29and the NASDAQ crash, you will notice these moves all started with a 47% -50% decline initially. I am using  these moves as an analog for the current move down. Thereafter 50% upward rallies(Wave B) followed which lasted almost as long as the duration of the declines. 

The killer punch in all these cases was the nasty wave C’s that followed which were at least 1.618 times as long as wave A.  So if we are headed for a longer term deflationary depression that Prechter talks about in his book “Conquer the Crash” that may actually eventuate


All the Best

Stoner


----------



## OzWaveGuy (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Hello OZG.
> 
> I am new to Elliott Wave Theory(as well as these boards). Have been looking at EWT on and off for the last 2 years...




Good questions Stone. Some quick answers...

There is a chance that wave *iv* is now underway and is forming a triangle and the wave count would fit into this scenario perfectly (eg less subdivisions have actually occurred as originally proposed under the wave iii = 138% of wave i scenario). If the triangle scenario is in fact correct there is further downside to come (perhaps 75% - 138% or more of the width of the triangle to the downside)

In terms of the VIX and other indicators (eg MACD, RSI bullish divergence) that are in extreme conditions, they certainly represent possible bounces at hand but ultimately it's the wave structure that determines the next moves. 

Once clarity is present (eg a triangle represents good clarity in most wave structures) then the remaining wave 5 with a-b-c correction can be estimated reasonably well.

So far we've seen 5 waves down from the high with a 3 wave correction - so at least 5 more waves down are required to complete a zig-zag correction (at a minimum). This appears to be completing with further downside to finish the 2nd set of 5 waves.  However, i don't think it'll stop there, there is simply too much that needs to unwind from previous excesses to turn around now - but a bounce is needed shortly.

Ultimately there are events that will soon unfold (probably later this year or early next) that will kick the bear market into high gear. This is simply a matter of negative social mood that is becoming more evident. Plenty of conspiracy theory web sites are pointing to a range of "events" that will occur or have been pre-planned to take advantage of the current situations - either way it's a factor of negative social mood


----------



## chops_a_must (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Good questions Stone. Some quick answers...
> 
> There is a chance that wave *iv* is now underway and is forming a triangle



Lol...

nice finish again this morning.

But we are forming a nice pennant of some kind by the looks...

We are at least going to test the lows in quick time, and breakout from it sometime fairly soon IMO.


----------



## stoner (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> So far we've seen 5 waves down from the high with a 3 wave correction - so at least 5 more waves down are required to complete a zig-zag correction (at a minimum). This appears to be completing with further downside to finish the 2nd set of 5 waves.  However, i don't think it'll stop there, there is simply too much that needs to unwind from previous excesses to turn around now - but a bounce is needed shortly.




Thanks for your reply Ozwave,

I am pretty much a EW novice compared to yourself and others in this forum, as still learning the wave counting ropes

In my "green as grass" opinion though after sifting Elliott Wave Principle (Frost and Prechter)repeatedly, the current decline from the October 2007 high looks more corrective than impulsive. Would be interested to hear the thoughts of other more experienced wavers?

I wonder if it is possible to determine if this actually in the next few days or does much more time have to pass.


----------



## chops_a_must (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hello,

lots of sellers out, not many buyers, great time to be a buyer, prices crashing, interest rates going down

the sun is shining, couldn't think of a better place to be buying shares

interest rates going down, inflation going through the roof, price of debt getting cheaper

imagine the profit when interest rates go to 1%

thankyou,

chopbots


----------



## MS+Tradesim (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> hello,
> 
> lots of sellers out, not many buyers, great time to be a buyer, prices crashing, interest rates going down
> 
> ...




Bwahahahhahah!!!  Snicker. Chortle! Can I play too?


----------



## roland (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> hello,
> 
> lots of sellers out, not many buyers, great time to be a buyer, prices crashing, interest rates going down
> 
> ...




This to me always seems to be a paradox, how can there be lots of sellers in relation to buyers? For every seller, there has to be a buyer to pick it up - so buyers versus sellers must balance otherwise there would be no share trading.

Of course I understand the term really menas that the holders are willing to take less for their holdings which drives the price down.


----------



## $20shoes (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Thanks for your reply Ozwave,
> 
> I am pretty much a EW novice compared to yourself and others in this forum, as still learning the wave counting ropes




Stoner, if you can stand some Gold bias, David Petch does some interesting long term analysis on the US indices and HUI, using a mixture of Stochastics, Fibs and Elliot wave counts. 

http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=David+Petch


----------



## Nick Radge (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> This to me always seems to be a paradox, how can there be lots of sellers in relation to buyers? For every seller, there has to be a buyer to pick it up - so buyers versus sellers must balance otherwise there would be no share trading.




Think of it in terms of 'desperation' of sellers vs. buyers. A desperate seller is more willing to sell at a lower price to exit. The reverse is also true - just not in this environment. If more sellers are desperate then they will force prices lower just to exit.


----------



## roland (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Think of it in terms of 'desperation' of sellers vs. buyers. A desperate seller is more willing to sell at a lower price to exit. The reverse is also true - just not in this environment. If more sellers are desperate then they will force prices lower just to exit.




Or opportunistic profit takers and short term swing traders who have picked up on the bottoms - I feel that this amplifys the volatility and stiffles any rallies


----------



## Nick Radge (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



roland said:


> Or opportunistic profit takers and short term swing traders who have picked up on the bottoms - I feel that this amplifys the volatility and stiffles any rallies




Too true Roland, which is why bear market rallies are so potent.


----------



## skyQuake (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



roland said:


> This to me always seems to be a paradox, how can there be lots of sellers in relation to buyers? For every seller, there has to be a buyer to pick it up - so buyers versus sellers must balance otherwise there would be no share trading.
> 
> Of course I understand the term really menas that the holders are willing to take less for their holdings which drives the price down.




Just be aware that there could be more sellers than buyers or vice versa. A huge seller may be dumping stock that will take 10 normal buyers to satisfy.


----------



## Indie (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*




chops_a_must said:


> hello,
> 
> lots of sellers out, not many buyers, great time to be a buyer, prices crashing, interest rates going down
> 
> ...




Hehehe, nice one.

I'm going long denial and short common sense investing.


----------



## chops_a_must (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Indie said:


> Hehehe, nice one.
> 
> I'm going long denial and short common sense investing.



hello

sure, why not

it works for property with the chopbots

thankyou
chopbots


----------



## Captain G (22 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some are saying that the bottom has been found or a bounce along, but it will be very interesting once the Fed/ Media finally states that the US is actual in a recession. When the "Fat Lady" has finally sung, that's the time when we'll see the real bottom.


----------



## Ruincity (23 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Our recent bottom of 3939 should be well and truly tested today I believe..
Might even break on open.  
Look out for a volatile day today.. 
The bear run has a while to get yet me thinks...


----------



## Aussiejeff (23 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Ruincity said:


> Our recent bottom of 3939 should be well and truly tested today I believe..
> Might even break on open.
> Look out for a volatile day today..
> The bear run has a while to get yet me thinks...




I dunno.

_Bears_ are so passe.

I thunk we should re-term _"Bear Market "_ to _"Moose Market"_ in honor of tha great Lady Palin. Nice alliteration, too.

Gee willikers, it sounds much better to say _"Dagnabbit - we done been *[size=+1]MOOSED[/size]* by them thar' banker boys"_  - rather than the tamer "BEARED".

You know it makes sense.....

:bananasmi


----------



## Temjin (23 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Captain G said:


> Some are saying that the bottom has been found or a bounce along, but it will be very interesting once the Fed/ Media finally states that the US is actual in a recession. When the "Fat Lady" has finally sung, that's the time when we'll see the real bottom.




By the time the US Fed/Media admits they are in a recession, it would be all over. The 2 x negative GDP per quarter measure for recession is plain stupid.


----------



## Real1ty (23 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> I dunno.
> 
> _Bears_ are so passe.
> 
> ...





LOL, now that's Gold.....:bier:


----------



## treefrog (23 October 2008)

*Analysisng what is there.*

Noticed an increasing number of posters on this thread posting emotion rather than analysis recently - the *I feel/think *it will....... post.
I believe that is because it simply is extremely difficult to pick dirrection on a short term basis when that short term it is extremely volatile as in the last couple of weeks, whether or not the "analysis" is TA or FA or both.
So stop guessing in a turbulent timeframe - zoom in to intraday (trades are easy because there is a lot of long quick moves) or zoom out towards the Medium Term.
It is also important to understand why the day to day market is so choppy and fundamentals are the key reason here - we are simply in a "really don't know yet period" - like waiting for tthe third umpire's decission.
There were some excellent posts awhile back (not mine) on the Imminent & Severe Market Downturn thread pointing to this current period (possibly running for a couple of years) when the market would digest poorer co results before heading further south (or consolidating) depending how bad they were.
It also seems to me that chartists are trying to predict ST dirrection from chart patterns alone - sorry, it just ain't possible in times like these.
I would mention that I use charts quite a bit for "up to date" pictures of what is and has happened but I never give precedence to charts over significant unexpected fundamentals and they abound atm.
In T/A terms only, the following is how I see the XJO/XAO on what I referred to above as a "zoom out" view.
the 50 CM oscillator can give early warnings of momentum dirrection change with "confirmation" of general direction by the 100day LR trace.
atm I note a falling wedge formation but the daily downtrend (lower lows and lower highs) still rules for now. 
As for the "seriously oversold it must go up" brigade, sorry don't agree - this downturn has been more "seriously oversold" as is apparent from the CM oscillator but that did not result in a lot of upside and the current ST daily churn is beginning to ease this quite a bit.
And jumping on my cycle I seem to be hitting a low spot every 160days both on price and momentum, and the next low is due same time as Santa, unless the fundamentals change that.
All those qualifications?? Yes, unfortunately, but then the chart has some pretty coloured bits.


----------



## gfresh (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For anybody who wants the 100 year data to plug into their charting program to study for any patterns or ideas:

http://www.wrenresearch.com.au/downloads/index.htm

(monthly average scale - but seems to correspond to charts posted earlier)


----------



## OzWaveGuy (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> For anybody who wants the 100 year data to plug into their charting program to study for any patterns or ideas:
> 
> http://www.wrenresearch.com.au/downloads/index.htm
> 
> (monthly average scale - but seems to correspond to charts posted earlier)




Thanks GF, useful data


----------



## stoner (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Certain Elliott Wavers on this board saying we are in triangle wave 4’s at present with wave 5 now in progress. Others saying pennants etc…..

The SP500 and Dow are also showing triangle patterns with EW gurus abroad touting that another wave 5 selloff is on the cards.

Although I am a novice at EW, I have briefly looked at  Mastering Elliott Wave by Neely and some of the work of the late Zoran Gayer whom based his work on that of Neely.  

On top of the conventional EW patterns in Elliott wave Principle by Frost and Prechter these guys are also working with some additional patterns. In the case of the SP500 and DJI presently , which looks like a conventional wave 4 triangle, they also talk about ENDING TRIANGLES, which is basically a failure of the wave 5 to occur. This would be akin to a bottom and then minor degree waves 1 and 2 to the upside(such a pattern also look like a triangle!!

Just another possibility before to consider before assuming a wave 5 always will occur…….


STONER


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Boy oh Boy!! she has a bad felling about her today.


----------



## Aussiejeff (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hello,

short covers must rally now

oh, but shorts banned

wonderful stuffs for a bargain


thankyou,
aussiebots


----------



## sam76 (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We love Sam76



thankyou,
fembots


----------



## CamKawa (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How would you be if you bought into this mornings sucker rally? You'd be facing a rather sobering weekend I would have thought. Support at the 2003 low of 2700 maybe?


----------



## treefrog (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Certain Elliott Wavers on this board saying we are in triangle wave 4’s at present with wave 5 now in progress. Others saying pennants etc…..
> 
> The SP500 and Dow are also showing triangle patterns with EW gurus abroad touting that another wave 5 selloff is on the cards.
> 
> ...




tech analysis is ALWAYS trumped by fundamentals stoner.
please note I did not say fundamental analysis because I think that TA will generally trump FA because of the timing thing but that will be debateable.
I have had an eye on EW for a decade or so and while I believe there is something in it, the bottom line is that you need to count the successful wavers who can say I made $Xm and did it thanks to EW and will show your my trades.
fact:-The market and liquid stocks move in a sawtooth fashion whether going up, down or sideways. 
as EW has generally had quite mixed results and an EW "industry" had developed they needed more options to fit the original rigid wave rules and to be able to "adjust" counts when wrong so therefore pirated quite a few other T/A patterns and ratios such as fibonachi, flags, candle patterns, and X-axis "time" waves etc - It is now pretty much in the paralysis by analysis bucket.
These days a wave is a wave, a triangle is a wave, a flag is a wave, a wedge is a wave; even a spade is a wave.


----------



## tech/a (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> tech analysis is ALWAYS trumped by fundamentals stoner.
> please note I did not say fundamental analysis because I think that TA will generally trump FA because of the timing thing but that will be debateable.
> I have had an eye on EW for a decade or so and while I believe there is something in it, the bottom line is that you need to count the successful wavers who can say I made $Xm and did it thanks to EW and will show your my trades.
> fact:-The market and liquid stocks move in a sawtooth fashion whether going up, down or sideways.
> ...




Clearly demonstrated lack of understanding of Elliott Application.


----------



## chops_a_must (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hello,

the mods have no humour

thankyou
chopbots


----------



## theasxgorilla (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> hello,
> 
> the mods have no humour
> 
> ...




hello,

if you want a holiday that badly just say so

thankyou
modbots


----------



## treefrog (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Clearly demonstrated lack of understanding of Elliott Application.




"Re: The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread 
All my EW skills come from the old school - Prechter's classic EW. Combined with the simplicity of Miner's style. 
I heard there is another school that is based around Glenn Neely teachings. Is it any worth to read his book? I am content around the classic style but I try to keep and open mind to any new idea."

quite true tech, but which one??


----------



## tech/a (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

T/F.

While I understand its a matter in all cases of personal interpretation (Not the counts but the application of E/W).There are in my view some serious mis understandings with regard to this analysis.
Which limits and in many cases excludes people from using E/W through lack of practical application knowledge.

I dont have the time to go through this just now but think it worth placing this in its own thread perhaps titled "Elliott Wave a better understanding of practical application".

People in my view (and ofcourse it can be argued that my view is just mine).

Complicate application.
I really dont think you have to be as good as Prechter or Radge or Naley


----------



## nunthewiser (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Personally thinking that many users of the EW application HERE need to get a better understanding of its  workings too .......no offense intended , blah blah blah

cant say ive seen too many accurate callings on situations of late by those that proffess its greatness and ready to jump at anyone that points out that it aint no better than a ruler and pencil and ANY other TA based analysis.

i think ive had this discussion before , but hey nothing like pointing out the bleedin obvious from time to time

thankyou


----------



## tech/a (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Personally thinking that many users of the EW application HERE need to get a better understanding of its  workings too .......no offense intended , blah blah blah
> 
> cant say ive seen too many accurate callings on situations of late by those that proffess its greatness and ready to jump at anyone that points out that it aint no better than a ruler and pencil and ANY other TA based analysis.
> 
> ...





I will point this out (Your post) which echo's the sentiment of most who just dont get it.

Let me ask this question.
If you analyse a company fundamentally and find it undervalued buy into it and find in 3 months its lost 20-50% of value--that analysis is wrong?

Or a Triangle pattern fails,or a pennent or a breakout fails or a trendline is broken or an M/A is broken or a candlestick pattern fails---these then are simply in accurate voodoo with little value?

ALL analysis simply supplies a setup---an opportunity to START or END a trade.
E/W is in some respects no different but in other respects very different in that ALL counts are continually DYNAMIC and can be updated from bar to bar.

Its not a flaw but an amazing advantage.
If people can understand that there is NO RIGIDITY and when disproven doesnt mean the worlds fallen in or the analysis has NO VALUE---then you'll actually begin to UNDERSTAND how to apply the analysis and never post a post like that above


----------



## Porper (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> I heard there is another school that is based around Glenn Neely teachings. Is it any worth to read his book? I am content around the classic style but I try to keep and open mind to any new idea."




Classic Elliot is 100 times easier to understand than Neely's book.

Unless you are seriously bright give it a miss.I found it so hard I gave up, but I am not that bright.

I know somebody ( a professional Trader) who also didn't complete the book.


Neely has also made some bad calls in the past and I believe is using a "new technique" called Neely river I think.


----------



## nunthewiser (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I will point this out (Your post) which echo's the sentiment of most who just dont get it.
> 
> Let me ask this question.
> If you analyse a company fundamentally and find it undervalued buy into it and find in 3 months its lost 20-50% of value--that analysis is wrong?
> ...




1. no the fundamental analysis is correct , its the same company with the same bottom line , same intrisinc value etc 
, it was the wrong use of TA or whatever calculation was used to come up with your entry price that is now 30% different

2.no just the same as EW analysis in the regards that it was wrong and it caused a failed trade/missed trade .no voodoo involved

i think you have already answered my point that it was no different to any other form of TA in form of accuracy and by  some of the calls here ,by those using it were just as way off the mark  as non users of it when it came to direction/pivot points/support etc etc .


----------



## MRC & Co (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Jesus, she was sick today!  S&P falling too, global indices are looking absolutely HORRIBLE, so much for my short-term bounce, shows the power of anyone making 'predictions'.  No point, if it hits new lows, good chance it's going lower.  

Oh god, the EW debate is back, just as the new lows points above, I don't see what is wrong with HH, HL etc.  Much easier


----------



## Whiskers (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Jesus, she was sick today!  S&P falling too, global indices are looking absolutely HORRIBLE, so much for my short-term bounce, shows the power of anyone making 'predictions'.  No point, if it hits new lows, good chance it's going lower.
> 
> Oh god, the EW debate is back, just as the new lows points above, I don't see what is wrong with HH, HL etc.  Much easier




Yeah, agree on both counts MRC.

I have only been using EW manually as a range finder, ie to identify potential swings and their degree based on my other FA and TA analysis.

But I have another 'conspiracy' (sorta) theory or maybe at least a self fullifillng prophecy theory.

With all the algirythmic and market predicting software out there today, maybe people are going with and getting what they expect from their software... self fullfilling prophecy.

But having said all that, I think we are at another significant juncture that should unfold shortly ie the USDX falling again (Details on the where is gold going thread)


----------



## chops_a_must (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> With all the algirythmic and market predicting software out there today, maybe people are going with and getting what they expect from their software... self fullfilling prophecy.



hello,

no, the reason we are in this mess is because of mechanical algorithmic trading which left an opening and least point of resistance to something that has not and could not be tested before

thankyou,
chopstalebbots


----------



## stoner (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Seems like a number of different markets are in the midst of the early stages of an Elliott Wave 5 this evening, breaking out of wave 4 triangles. 

Same patterns are evident in the DJIA and even AUS buck!

Dow looks like 7200 is a possibility based on a measured move and Aus buck 59-60. Phew! Who would have thought hat 12 months ago!
Robert Prechter believes triangles are the penultimate pattern, not the ultimate or final pattern.

It could be that stock markets are going to get a hefty global bounce in November. There are at least three events on the horizon that could provide the boost. 

First, if Obama is elected, you have the end of uncertainty about the U.S. election (and some highly irrational optimism that things will now be different, better, and nicer). Second, you'll get a new stimulus plan from the Democratic Congress in the U.S., which should give stocks a bit of a kick. And third, the big G20 meeting in Washington Kevin Rudd is headed too. Something that looks and feels good should come from that. 


The only other possibility is perhaps the if the final Prechterian wave 5 truncates, at this stage given the fear that does not look like happening


All the best

STONER


----------



## awg (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My opinion: the "govt deposit g'tee" is causing retirees in particular to redeem managed funds in droves.

Causing a major capitulation.

wont stop till gains and dividends are consistently stronger than cash rates.


----------



## M34N (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dow futures down 500/5.7% right now, Euro markets down over 6%, Asian markets down in the vicinity of 10%, is this still panic or the denial stage? An interesting article on CNBC:

Wall Street Moves Quickly From Panic to Despair



> Any company reporting positive earnings this week might just as well have kept it to themselves: investors weren't paying attention anyway. But if a company missed profit estimates or lowered its outlook, the stock couldn't fall fast enough.
> Financial Crisis
> 
> After being in panic mode the past few weeks, Wall Street is now wallowing in despair.
> ...


----------



## dhukka (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Europe down *-8:0%* plus, S&P500 futures down *-6.5%* which is 'limit down', could we see the circuit breakers in action tonight? Or will the Fed and treasury reach into their ever shrinking bag of tricks and pull something out?


----------



## gfresh (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Watching the zaniness now.. 

UK 3rd quarter GDP -0.5%



> http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5005207.ece
> 
> Britain’s economy shrank in the three months to September for the first time in 16 years, all but confirming that it is now in the grip of its first recession since the early Nineties.
> 
> Bleak official GDP figures showing that national income plunged by 0.5 per cent in the three months to the end of September, in the sharpest drop since the end of 1990, revealed that the toll from the credit crisis and housing crash has ended Britain’s longest unbroken run of quarterly growth since at least 1955.


----------



## M34N (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Europe down *-8:0%* plus, S&P500 futures down *-6.5%* which is 'limit down', could we see the circuit breakers in action tonight? Or will the Fed and treasury reach into their ever shrinking bag of tricks and pull something out?




Wouldn't be surprised to see it fall hard tonight, to be honest, but what tricks are there left to pull now? From Bloomberg:

S&P 500, Dow Average Futures Reach `Limit Down' Level



> Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Trading in futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been limited after declines in the contracts of more than 6 percent triggered a so-called limit down restriction.
> 
> *The S&P 500 futures will not trade below 855.20 until U.S. exchanges open for regular trading at 9:30 a.m. New York time*, said Jeremy Hughes, a London-based spokesman for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Dow Average futures won't trade below the 8,224 level, he said. The ``limit down'' suspension allows both contracts to trade above those levels, he said.
> 
> Stocks tumbled around the world today and U.S. index futures fell on deepening concern the global economic slump will crimp corporate earnings.


----------



## the bard (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ouch, this is getting stupid. Probably end up 200 points by the end of the night?

Who knows in this current environment????????????


----------



## Struzball (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

exciting times...


----------



## Gundini (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Struzball said:


> exciting times...




Scary times... I've never been here before... 

Someone said on a forum here:

"Short the Planet!"


----------



## treefrog (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> With the XAO at about 3964 right now, it's only 100 points above the red line.
> 
> Will it follow the last three times it hit that line, or will it break through and we say bye bye to the trend since late 1987?
> 
> ...




closed hard on that red line end of this week GP, and ominously has pushed well through in futures and CFD's after the bell.
Nice support a little further down on the big green line though - can't see it pushing through that as easily.


----------



## Ruincity (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

lol classic post.
Gotta admit I was expecting a higher green line........

Futures @ around 190 atm..  

Going to be an interesting monday.. 
Can't see us getting past support @ 3400.

Not on monday anyway.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Green range here we come.


----------



## Julia (24 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



awg said:


> My opinion: the "govt deposit g'tee" is causing retirees in particular to redeem managed funds in droves.



Undoubtedly true, but I suspect many retirees who have been following advice to "hold on, it will all be fine" may have reached the stage where they no longer have any faith in that suggestion and would have cashed out anyway.


----------



## treefrog (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> Green range here we come.




just above top of green range is 76% fib level at (and it has reached that tonight). No other S/R thereabouts though


----------



## Ferret (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Julia said:


> Undoubtedly true, but I suspect many retirees who have been following advice to "hold on, it will all be fine" may have reached the stage where they no longer have any faith in that suggestion and would have cashed out anyway.




Not sure about this.  Most self funded retirees live on dividend and interest payments.  Why would you sell up now when fully franked dividend yields are high to put the money into cash with a falling interest rate and no franking credits?


----------



## Nyden (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Ferret said:


> Not sure about this.  Most self funded retirees live on dividend and interest payments.  Why would you sell up now when fully franked dividend yields are high to put the money into cash with a falling interest rate and no franking credits?




 ... because those dividend payments may be greatly reduced


----------



## Aussiejeff (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> ... because those dividend payments may be greatly reduced




... or in a worse case, cancelled. I suspect many small / medium companys are going to be slashing dividends (even cancelling dividends in a few instances) over the coming months. I wouldn't be surprised to see the odd major reduce its divvy payouts either.


----------



## stoner (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking at Dow and SP500 chart from last night.
Alhough the falls out of this triangle look massive, in actual fact market has not moved out of the flag/triangle as most moves do. It looks like it's taking it's time.

From the day of the top, counting 377 calendar days forward( 377 is in the fibonacci sequence) we hit 10th October, which was the low at 7800 on the dow and 840 on the SP500.

In a conventional move out of a triangle the target would be 7200 in the Dow. I cannot see this happening now, in fact the low made on the 10th October will stand and the Neely forecast of an ENDING TRIANGLE looks like it might happen. Monday will be the decider and possible the last day of selling pressure which to me seems to be easing in this down move compared to the big in leading up to 10th October.

STONER


----------



## lucifuge (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The distribution of data points is not normally distributed; rather, they are log-normally distributed.  Are you able to re-present this graph on a log scale and apply linear trends? That would be more appropriate. Of course the two may converge when exponentiated, but analyzing the data in log-linear is more valid.



MS+Tradesim said:


> Green range here we come.


----------



## GreatPig (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's an update of my chart on semi-log. Looks like it's just broken down from a descending triangle.

GP


----------



## Aussiejeff (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Here's an update of my chart on semi-log. Looks like it's just broken down from a descending triangle.
> 
> GP




Hi GP.

So, from the break, anyone's guess into the uncharted zone?

Any prediction on Monday's close?




aj


----------



## MS+Tradesim (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



lucifuge said:


> The distribution of data points is not normally distributed; rather, they are log-normally distributed.  Are you able to re-present this graph on a log scale and apply linear trends? That would be more appropriate. Of course the two may converge when exponentiated, but analyzing the data in log-linear is more valid.




Just for you, though the same trends are clearly observable on the standard chart...

Anyways, I don't believe any analysis is especially meaningful under the current situation. This is a breakdown of a credit induced super cycle. I present these charts merely for interest's sake. I am completely out of the market.


----------



## mildew79 (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

so long as people are looking at charts, charting patterns will have some influence!


----------



## lucifuge (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks for that. 

I have to agree with your "lack of meaning" comment under the current situation. Even so, I remain in the market as I'm holding for the long term. 

Personally I think the Dow will be testing 7500 before long and then possible 7100. So whatever these equate to in our market.



MS+Tradesim said:


> Just for you, though the same trends are clearly observable on the standard chart...
> 
> Anyways, I don't believe any analysis is especially meaningful under the current situation. This is a breakdown of a credit induced super cycle. I present these charts merely for interest's sake. I am completely out of the market.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Although this chart isn't the XAO, the S&P500 probably contains the strongest and clearest Elliottwave patterns (in addition to the Nasdaq) that shows where the market is heading over the short term. 

There's some interesting observations in this chart should the triangle formation be confirmed as discussed below. 

If the wave iv triangle builds out over the coming days/weeks then this is a good indicator on the next market action. Usually the width of the widest point of the triangle is a good indication on the future action. In addition, I've added some points on the chart - the most interesting is that by estimating the width of the possible triangle, it has given us some possible targets. Both targets correspond almost exactly to a Fibonacci relationship of wave i.

One rule of impluse waves is: if wave iii is the extended wave, then wave i and v should be equal or a Fibonacci relationship of 61%. It's also interesting to note that wave iii is just over 161% of wave i - another Fibonacci relationship for impulse waves.

In summary, the waves on the S&P500 appear to be tracing out a almost perfect elliottwave pattern with the default fib relationships of price. If the market operates within the boundaries set below, then a break of the triangle's b-d support line (currently estimated) to the downside then wave v will be underway.

Once wave v completes, there should be a correction that takes the index up for a period of time.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Certain Elliott Wavers on this board saying we are in triangle wave 4’s at present with wave 5 now in progress. Others saying pennants etc…..
> 
> The SP500 and Dow are also showing triangle patterns with EW gurus abroad touting that another wave 5 selloff is on the cards.
> 
> ...




Stoner - not sure I follow you on this thread - are you referring to ending Diagonals? An ending Diagonal occurs in wave 5 or c positions. However, if you are referring to a 5th wave failure, then by design, the fourth wave will still need to complete (which may indeed be a triangle). You may want to elaborate.

Neely, i've read and seems to be the most concise material on elliottwave that I have seen.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Captain G said:


> Some are saying that the bottom has been found or a bounce along, but it will be very interesting once the Fed/ Media finally states that the US is actual in a recession. When the "Fat Lady" has finally sung, that's the time when we'll see the real bottom.




the media seems to be saying everything and anything. CNN said "the financial crisis was over" after the bounce on the 10th. I checked my calendar to make sure it wasn't April 1st and turned to more intelligent viewing with a re-run of the Simpsons.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (25 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> "Re: The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread
> All my EW skills come from the old school - Prechter's classic EW. Combined with the simplicity of Miner's style.
> I heard there is another school that is based around Glenn Neely teachings. Is it any worth to read his book? I am content around the classic style but I try to keep and open mind to any new idea."
> 
> quite true tech, but which one??




Neely, extends Elliott's teachings with finer methods. Most people (as shown in this forum) get cranky with elliott because the count was wrong or it was a impulse when it should have been a correction etc. Neely undertakes some very useful techniques around all of types of waves esp corrections - which are the main culprits for most people. Worth the outlay. You'll need to read it several times as there is a stack on content


----------



## stoner (26 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Stoner - not sure I follow you on this thread - are you referring to ending Diagonals? An ending Diagonal occurs in wave 5 or c positions. However, if you are referring to a 5th wave failure, then by design, the fourth wave will still need to complete (which may indeed be a triangle). You may want to elaborate.
> 
> Neely, i've read and seems to be the most concise material on elliottwave that I have seen.




Hello OWG,

Not referring to ending diagonals, contracting triangles, or any of those commonly known Elliott patterns.

Zoran Gayer who built on Neely's work discovered another pattern called an ENDING TRIANGLE or triangle truncation. These patterns occur all over the place especially in intraday currency markets. The low of 2003 in the SP500 was an ENDING TRIANGLE. Do you remember that? Prechter and his boys were waiting form a 4th wave to build and got sh.fted missing the whole bullmarket of 5 years. Great Elliott call that was huh? Their problem was they were too bearish and negative sentiment had reached an extreme. Strangely the low was reached just 3-4 months after his book "Conquer The Crash" was released which in itself is an expression of negative sentiment, one of the very tools he uses to measure the market!

Just also alerting you to the chance that your wave count may well be wrong because you have not covered all the possible wave scenarios here. Re the SP500 and DJIA another possibility there is that a low may already be in place and that the current wave count action was an impulse up on the rally that started after the 10th October, followed by an complex correction that we have had to date. This is especially true if viewing these patterns in an hourly chart. That is what I am working with presently.

I am not an Elliott Wave expert yet, although I have picked up many facets up quickly over the last 2 years. I still need to learn to the application of Elliott because that is what is important. Theory is just theory, and assuming this is a 4th wave after a fourth we have to get a fifth, then sorry but you are missing out on all the possibilities. From what I have absorbed in my studying, there can be up to three or four possibilities in terms of wave counts as your alternates. Ideally the prime count  and most alternate counts should be pointed in the right direction in the timeframe you wish to trade OR you find other means/methods to validate your wavecount. I like using Fibonacci as can be seen from the chart posted earlier.


BTW, I don't see an impulse down from the 07 peak yet. Maybe I am just not proficient in the use of Elliott yet, but I see a zigzag with wave A being an abc, wave B boing an expanded flat with minor wave c of that upward correction being and ending diagonal. Wave C down looks to possibly have been an impulse but too early to tell.

Not sure I follow the logic in waves i and ii of the chart you have posted as the position of wave ii is wrong. It should be at the earlier peak in August, but then what do you do with the wavelet that you have currently marked ii? There is a wave missing here in the count. It maybe where you have ii that needs to be a lower degree wave.  Need to think this over, will post my version of this later. Every wave needs to be accounted for in order ofr the count to be valid.


All the best

STONER


----------



## Sean K (26 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Cripes! Some intelligent, respectful, EW discussion. Flabbergasted! Nice change, ty. Kennas


----------



## OzWaveGuy (26 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Hello OWG,
> 
> Not referring to ending diagonals, contracting triangles, or any of those commonly known Elliott patterns....




Hi Stoner. Yes I understand what you are referring to. Using Neely's methods, he described situations where in a double or triple flat or zig-zag corrections the last pattern was a triangle, before the market would reverse. The whole structure looks like an impulse pattern, and most would get it wrong.

This very same phenomenon can be seen on the UK100 futures chart today. The leg up from 2003 to the recent high is a corrective B wave with a ending triangle. The following c wave actually starts lower than the ending B high and is driving down in impulse waves - So it should be a massive flat (3-3-5) correction.

I don't believe this ending triangle situation is with us on the XAO at the moment, as like the S&P500, the XAO is driving down in impulse waves.

Re the missing wave you mentioned in wave ii. Wave ii is an expanded flat with a c wave failure.

Cheers OWG


----------



## amory (26 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

one thing about Eliott-wave is that it always presents a perfect pattern in retrospect, ie once the full count is completed, but rarely - such as right now - anything more than fairly precise measured possibilities & probabilities in either direction ... at least in the immediate, short term.

I found Stoner's reference to "Prechter & his boys" quite amusing.  at the time I got the same impression, but did not want to appear rude & criticize the masters of EW.  because basically I believe in it, but with aforesaid limitations.

various analysts whom I respect, are completely undecided about the current market, this is with ref both to the Dow & consequently the XAO.  they are waiting to see which way it will break-out, up or down before committing themselves to any prediction or target.  but now for some interesting comment from Money and Markets:

_*Burning Question: Won't This All Be Inflationary? *
by Jack Crooks 

Dear Subscriber,

It's a popular notion when the financial winds are blowing unfavorably:

Money is being printed uncontrollably ... inflation is the only option ... fiat currencies are doomed.

The thing is, if you're buying into this idea, you're mostly perpetuating a misconception. Actually, inflation isn't as simple and certain as it's cracked up to be._....  ....

he then goes on to draw comparisons with the stagnant environment in Japan etc etc.  for inst he sees nothing wrong with the strength of the USDollar!  leaving one wondering about the dollar, gold, and the market overall.  my own conclusion:  it might be a good idea to stay cashed up for a little while longer, until the smoke clears ... and wave-5 makes up its mind.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (26 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Cripes! Some intelligent, respectful, EW discussion. Flabbergasted! Nice change, ty. Kennas




lol, thanks, we aim to please!


----------



## $20shoes (26 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Until proven wrong ( 99% chance of this actually), I'll continue to play Devil's advocate and suggest we are at a major low right here on the weekly charts.
No point trying to pick the bigger trends on the dailys right now. 

XAO
The left hand pic (weekly XAO) shows that we have pushed down to an extreme level on the Bollingers, and at the same time the Stochastics will spend the next few weeks bottoming out, suggesting some possible basing. 

The Bollingers are not suggesting a bottom is in. However the last two weeks have put in definite inverted hammers, suggesting a bullish bottom reversal. 

The right hand pic suggests the Head & Shoulders objective has been met right here at this level.

I have placed a longer term view of the weekly RSI since '87. 
i) you will notice that at (0), the RSI has failed to reach its lower trendline (may still), so a divergence is possibly forming. It is reaching a low it has never seen since and including '87.
ii) A Descending wedge at (1) suggests we are about to sharply correct back up from an oversold level we have never known since and including '87.

US indices
I also post the formation of high wave candles on the US indices, being put in far below the bands - Suggesting a possible loss of trend (certainly a loss of momentum). 
You can see what an extreme level they are at right now in relation to the weekly bands. Once again the Bands are not suggesting a bottom is in, but a powerful move down from here is unlikely unless we see a type of capitulation we have never historically witnessed. Stochastics both winding within a symmetrical triangle, and will perhaps do so into early December, when the next direction might be clearer.


----------



## stoner (26 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Re the missing wave you mentioned in wave ii. Wave ii is an expanded flat with a c wave failure.
> 
> Cheers OWG




Thanks OWG,

I have not applied Elliott wave much before, but through the texts I have studied I have rarely seen a failed expanded flat, although I acknowledge that these patterns do appear. Especially when wave 3 is in a real hurry to take of and that might be the reason for the truncation.

Below are some charts of what I think might be happening at this point in time. I am not sure if I have used the correct wave degree notations and nomenclature as I am new to this , but will leave as is for now.

As far as impulse waves down in current market, sorry cannot see it in the charts. Looks more corrective to me. In fact I remember Prechter labelled the decline of 2000-2003 as a series of nesting wave 1 and 2 impulses but was wrong, which was surprising because the whole corrective pattern looked like one of the patterns of his book Elliott Wave Principle! He later modified the count! The SP500 count of the last few weeks looks rather complex and outside the norm I know, and I think you will probably disagree with. But this wavecount analysis has been arrived at from combining multipe methods. Let's see if it's a crap count next week or not!

As such I am with $20shoes here and will be turning more to the bulls side this week.

All the best

STONER


----------



## treefrog (26 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

jeez team,
ever heard of K.I.S.S. - the more complex you make it the less likely people will understand it and the more likelihood of practicioners ever agreeing.
what you appear to be saying is it is going down and may retrace up if we can get some serious good news before finishing the down leg.
KISS EW states :_One complete cycle consisting of eight waves is made up of two distinct phases, the motive phase whose waves are denoted by numbers 1-5, and the corrective phase whose waves are denoted by letters a-c._
appologies for the crappy chart but from treefrog's tree this is simply (starting from the the last significant correction - a good a place as any to start from):
blue consolidation period (no wide angle wave)
waves 1-5
first wave of corrective phase (a)
(b) and (c) still coming and then flat (maybe)


----------



## stoner (26 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wish it was ALWAYS that easy treefrog.

That would be an ideal world, and we could all know when to buy and sell and be mega rich. But is ain't.

The daily charts I posted simply don't break down into simple waves that easily. Unless the way I have interpreted the Elliott Material is grossly incorrect! This is always possible with me

Your qaurtely chart analysis is much simpler, but it really depends on what horizon one wishes to trade, doesn't it?



STONER


----------



## tech/a (26 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

T/F

No different to many of the charts shown above.
simply most are in agreeance that we are in a completing wave,be it 5 or a larger wave "A". which will likely see a return of bullish conditions while a corrective "B" in 3 waves completes.Of course within these moves will be moves of lesser degree.
As confusing as it seems to some---- its pretty orderly.


----------



## Whiskers (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I still reckon this correction is overdone... an aberation, ie it could have been less severe if the US had been more decisive and made certain decisions about the regulation of the markets earlier. 

But, it now looks like we got nearly the worst case scenerio with all the commodities futures looking like they have just about gone full circle to unrealistic lows. 

But futures can't manipulate the market prices though, can they! :

Well, anyway with the big banks and funds etc that were 'allegedly' most responsible copping a thrashing, even if the US stuffs around and doesen't completely close the 'Enron Loophole,' I doubt many will be keen to repeat the dose. So as soon as the credit markets loosen up and life goes on I expect commodities will recover to more sustainable levels leading our market up again.

Getting back to my almost forgotten Standard deviation channels, it seems to confirm that the XAO has over-corrected and looks like it needs to revert northwards for quite some time.

I also note that the XAO, XNJ, XMJ and XMM to mention a few, have unusually gapped down recently also indicating a rise soon to fill them.


----------



## chops_a_must (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> But futures can't manipulate the market prices though, can they! :



hello,

what was responsible for previous booms and busts prior to futures trading, and is there really any difference

thankyou,
chopbots


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I also note that the XAO, XNJ, XMJ and XMM to mention a few, have unusually gapped down recently also indicating a rise soon to fill them.




Your Gaps are rubbish Whiskers. JUST RUBBISH!!!

Because of the ASX staggered start there are gaps every day. Just another example of someone taking "text book" TA and *not having a clue about there occurrences, probabilities or applications.*

All this TA application is laughable. It is no good unless you know how reliable or probable the patterns are. Just because its in a book or accepted "wisdom" doesn't mean it has any use. 

RUBBISH.


----------



## dhukka (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Your Gaps are rubbish Whiskers. JUST RUBBISH!!!
> 
> Because of the ASX staggered start there are gaps every day. Just another example of someone taking "text book" TA and *not having a clue about there occurrences, probabilities or applications.*
> 
> ...




It goes without saying doesn't it? How could anyone possibly put any credence in what Whiskers says when he is continually wrong?


----------



## treefrog (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Your Gaps are rubbish Whiskers. JUST RUBBISH!!!
> 
> Because of the ASX staggered start there are gaps every day. Just another example of someone taking "text book" TA and *not having a clue about there occurrences, probabilities or applications.*
> 
> ...




luv it TH, luv it. 
Bud ya'd gobba abmit tose morning sta' padderns were a dood indugator for da immenent revershal.
sorry about the mumbling - got tongue stuck in cheek


----------



## stoner (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I sense some sort of rally starting this arvo. Have just bought December calls.

This move down this morning looks like the completion of a 5th wave move breaking out of a 4th wave triangle.

Would be interested in others traders opinions on this. There could be a little joy emerging from the doom and gloom soon


All the Best 


STONER


----------



## MS+Tradesim (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Stoner,

Yes, I have no TA or FA reason to think anything different but I just have a gut-level feeling a rally is not far off. Considering one small long position. Will enter or not near close. Depends.


----------



## skyQuake (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> I sense some sort of rally starting this arvo. Have just bought December calls.
> 
> This move down this morning looks like the completion of a 5th wave move breaking out of a 4th wave triangle.
> 
> ...




Morning's price action looks like Big W


----------



## CAB SAV (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Too much data this week for me. Main Pts.
AUS-Tue. NAB Quarterly Business Survey
        WED. Skilled Vacancies

US. Tonight- New Home Sales Sept
      Tue. Consumer Confidence Oct.
      Wed.Durable Goods Orders
      Thurs. GDP Sept Qtr. Personal Consumption Sept Qtr
                Core Price advanced Sept Qtr
      Fri. Personal Income Sept. Personal Spending Sept
            Employment Cost Index sept. Qtr


Plus feds speaking in both countries.


----------



## acedrum (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Morning's price action looks like Big W




Yep 'W' for Whipsaw!


----------



## bankit (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi All,
We all seem to be struggling with our analysis with this severe downtrend, including myself. The attached is an update of my post #5122 which hasn't changed but I have added some more resistance areas in that ccorrespond with the 3260 area. If I am wrong with this target then so be it but it is food for thought.

Bankit.


----------



## treefrog (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bankit said:


> Hi All,
> We all seem to be struggling with our analysis with this severe downtrend, including myself. The attached is an update of my post #5122 which hasn't changed but I have added some more resistance areas in that ccorrespond with the 3260 area. If I am wrong with this target then so be it but it is food for thought.
> 
> Bankit.




a truckload of fib confluence there bankit - good take: someone talking my lingo at last! (although I did note your earlier post)


----------



## Whiskers (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> hello,
> 
> what was responsible for previous booms and busts prior to futures trading, and is there really any difference
> 
> ...




Well, thanks for the revampted format and pleasentry of your posts chops. I like it. 

Chops, there has always been booms and busts. Although the following report relates more specifically to commodities the principle is the same and the flow-on effects has certainly exaggerated the booms and busts of the wider markets.



> One of the fundamental purposes of futures contracts is to provide price discovery in the ―cash‖ or ―spot‖ markets. Those selling or buying commodities in the ―spot‖ markets rely on futures prices to judge amounts to charge or pay for the delivery of a commodity.
> 
> The conclusion that speculation has added a large premium to energy products has been corroborated by many experts...
> 
> http://commerce.senate.gov/public/_files/IMGJune3Testimony0.pdf






Trembling Hand said:


> Your Gaps are rubbish Whiskers. JUST RUBBISH!!!
> 
> Because of the ASX staggered start there are gaps every day. Just another example of someone taking "text book" TA and *not having a clue about there occurrences, probabilities or applications.*
> 
> ...




TH, er GRUMPY'S back... Grumpy... if you could leave your condescending attitude at home in the dunny and read the post carefully to get the CONTEXT... you might save us all a lot of unpleasentries.



> _Because of the ASX staggered start there are gaps every day._




GRUMPY, have a look at the XAO, yes XAO daily chart and tell me how many *daily candles *have gapped on the XAO in the last year or so?... oh every day heh!!!

I have only noticed two that have not filled the opening gaps during the day and they have been in the last few days.



dhukka said:


> It goes without saying doesn't it? How could anyone possibly put any credence in what Whiskers says when he is continually wrong?




Well if it's not my old mate dhukka thoughtlessly weighing in for another round of mindless insults... just for the sake of it.



treefrog said:


> luv it TH, luv it.
> Bud ya'd gobba abmit tose morning sta' padderns were a dood indugator for da immenent revershal.
> sorry about the mumbling - got tongue stuck in cheek




WHAT!



treefrog said:


> a truckload of fib confluence there bankit - good take: someone talking my lingo at last! (although I did note your earlier post)




So, fibinacci is good and true but candle formation and gaps are not!!??

You will have to excuse me for not replying with the same mindless insults and 'attempted' ridicule. 

But you might like to explain the all powerful and true aspects of fibinacci as opposed to candle formations and gaps.


----------



## shaunQ (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I know nothing in comparison to most here, so take it easy, but it seems to me that the ASX is so heavily effected by DOW movements that looking at the Australian charts would almost be meaningless. 

If you wake up tomorrow and the DOW has lost 15%, we will fall, likewise, if there is a massive, massive rally in the US we will also probably go along with it.

I agree that when everything is calmer our individual stocks have some independence, but at the moment I feel like everyone is waiting to see what is happening overseas, more than here. 

Anyway, just my .0001c


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> GRUMPY, have a look at the XAO, yes XAO daily chart and tell me how many *daily candles *have gapped on the XAO in the last year or so?... oh every day heh!!!
> 
> I have only noticed two that have not filled the opening gaps during the day and they have been in the last few days.




Oh MY GOD!!

This is exactly what I am talking about. This is the XJO chandles *with* the real open. This is what traders use who play gaps. not the muppet chandle charts that you have. your chart is like I said Rubbish for gaps.

They happen every day.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Well, thanks for the revampted format and pleasentry of your posts chops. I like it.




Whiskers, I believe you have asked reasonable questions in relation to GAPS on index charts. I have occasionally seen gaps on the XAO, S&P500, NASDAQ etc and the tendency is to fill that gap. It's always an alert for me to consider the market will probably want to cover the gap at a point in the not to distant future. Many other traders use the same technique to label a possible reversal to at least cover the gap in the index.

With the XAO opening in a staggered format until about 10:15am (or thereabouts) then this would most likely not incur gaps on the index because of the incremental opening. Hence a reasonable gap on the open does indicate volatile market action. 

If the market did not open in a staggered format eg every stock from A to Z opened at the exact same time, then there would be a GAP every almost every day on the XAO. However, this is not feasible for the ASX to undertake.


----------



## Whiskers (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Oh MY GOD!!
> 
> This is exactly what I am talking about. This is the XJO chandles *with* the real open. This is what traders use who play gaps. not the muppet chandle charts that you have. your chart is like I said Rubbish for gaps.
> 
> They happen every day.




In case you hadn't noticed TH my post and this thread particularly relates to the XAO.

I don't give a rat's **** what you trade or want to talk about. My post was in relation to trend analysis of the XAO.

Comparing the XAO to the XJO is like saying a holden is a falcon. Stupid!

Just because you have a hell of an ego and thick skull... I'll emphasise again... I was refering to trend analysis on the XAO, the recognised main trend indicator of the Aus market... absolutely nothing to do with the prefered tool or otherwise that you want or prefer to trade.

Do you get that TH. It's about trend analysis of the XAO... NOT ABOUT YOUR SELF IMPORTANCE.

And NO, they do not happen every day on the XAO.


----------



## skyQuake (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO pretty much =  XJO

The chart TH has is a _proper_ gap chart as it gets around the staggered opening problem. It takes the opening prices of all the stocks and calculates the theoretical open.

Staggered openings just mean that if the total market weight of A-C stocks open extremely high or low; AND continue moving (and all the other D-Z gap the same way and the momentum continues...), we'll get a gap.

XAO Charts:
We have a gap around 6000 from June cause the overnight session was terrible...

and how about that gap at 3220 from Dec03. Will that get filled too?


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> In case you hadn't noticed TH my post and this thread particularly relates to the XAO.
> 
> I don't give a rat's **** what you trade or want to talk about. My post was in relation to trend analysis of the XAO.
> 
> Comparing the XAO to the XJO is like saying a holden is a falcon. Stupid!



You have to be kidding. They are like skyQuake has said,


> XAO pretty much = XJO









Whiskers said:


> Just because you have a hell of an ego and thick skull... I'll emphasise again... I was refering to trend analysis on the XAO, the recognised main trend indicator of the Aus market... absolutely nothing to do with the prefered tool or otherwise that you want or prefer to trade.
> 
> Do you get that TH. It's about trend analysis of the XAO... NOT ABOUT YOUR SELF IMPORTANCE.
> 
> And NO, they do not happen every day on the XAO.




You are SO wrong.

They do. Get the data and calculate it for yourself. The open you are using is opening data for stocks A-B. Not the opening of the XAO. 

I will state it again. You candle chart is rubbish for analysing gaps for the XAO. They happen ALL the time.

Nearly as often as you post incorrect, uniformed, untested and plain wrong "analysis".


----------



## dhukka (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I will state it again. You candle chart is rubbish for anaylsising gaps for the XAO. They happen ALL the time.
> 
> *Nearly as often as you post incorrect, uniformed, untested and plain wrong "analysis".*




I vehemently disagree, they couldn't possibly happen that often.


----------



## roland (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



shaunQ said:


> I know nothing in comparison to most here, so take it easy, but it seems to me that the ASX is so heavily effected by DOW movements that looking at the Australian charts would almost be meaningless.
> 
> If you wake up tomorrow and the DOW has lost 15%, we will fall, likewise, if there is a massive, massive rally in the US we will also probably go along with it.
> 
> ...




Hi shaunQ, I used to have the same beliefs that we fall out of some mindless following of the US markets. But you know, the US markets fall or rise based on the news or events that are related to the investment world - meaning that the DOW falls because of some event, news, financial data, fed announcements etc. The US has such a global financial impact that whatever news causes the US to shift will most likely shift the AU financials as well.

So in essence, we don't follow the DOW as such, but are certainly affected by the same news.

Correct me if I am wrong guys ....


----------



## MS+Tradesim (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> Stoner,
> 
> Yes, I have no TA or FA reason to think anything different but I just have a gut-level feeling a rally is not far off. Considering one small long position. Will enter or not near close. Depends.




Well, I didn't enter long. Didn't look right with US futures falling and XAO softening through the arvo.


----------



## Whiskers (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> With the XAO opening in a staggered format until about 10:15am (or thereabouts) then this would most likely not incur gaps on the index because of the incremental opening. Hence a reasonable gap on the open does indicate volatile market action.




Quite the point, Oz WaveGuy. 

Rarely have I found that the intra day action doesn't fill any opening gap on the XAO.

On individual stocks it's a good indicator for a swing trade especially when the gap isn't filled intraday and leaves the gap between the daily candles/bars, but because I've not noticed it before on the XAO, curious to see how significant it will be.


----------



## Whiskers (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> The chart TH has is a _proper_ gap chart as it gets around the staggered opening problem. It takes the opening prices of all the stocks and calculates the theoretical open.
> 
> Staggered openings just mean that if the total market weight of A-C stocks open extremely high or low; AND continue moving (and all the other D-Z gap the same way and the momentum continues...), we'll get a gap.




Yes, I know how the market opens in a stagger skyQuake, and I also get "_It takes the opening prices of all the stocks and calculates the theoretical open_."

But in 'actually' trading stocks not indicies... that is irrelevant to the XAO.



> XAO pretty much =  XJO




The XJO = S&P/ASX 200 = 3809.2

The XAO = ALL ORDINARIES = 3768.3

But I sota know the point you're trying to make, but it's irrelevant to my original point about gaps between the daily candles of the XAO.




> XAO Charts:
> We have a gap around 6000 from June cause the overnight session was terrible...
> 
> and how about that gap at 3220 from Dec03. Will that get filled too?




Not sure about these mate... checked Bigcharts and Incredible charts and cannot find that gap on either of them either. Do you have a possible explination?


----------



## treefrog (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> .
> 
> So, fibinacci is good and true but candle formation and gaps are not!!??
> You will have to excuse me for not replying with the same mindless insults and 'attempted' ridicule.
> But you might like to explain the all powerful and true aspects of fibinacci as opposed to candle formations and gaps.




whiskers, you were the one who went way out on a limb about the high reliability of a reversal with the morning stars on the indexes - I posted the reseach which showed it nonsense - it was your choice to emphatically reject that info. As you have had a multitude of stabs at a turn I think I was entitled to point out that it didn't happen, again! I accept your criticism that it was in a mindless insult.
However, it is almost a certainty that one of your future reversal posts will prove correct.
WRT fib analysis; thanks but no thanks. I will not add to the tedious and often repetitive TA detail that is posted on this thread when there are several other specific threads for that.
And besides, if I posted fib analysis info, we would have the Elliot Wavers adding it in and calling it theirs - EW6 v2.5 or such.
Fib "all powerful and true"? no, never said that. But having traded gaps, candles and fib in normal markets, have had best roi of those with fib.
Is this a normal market? Nope.
Is TA workable in it? depends how quickly we adapt.
Is it as TH suggests "nonsense"? Almost, - a lot is over-run by, in wave terms - the 'dumpers' we are getting at present.


----------



## Whiskers (27 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> You have to be kidding. They are like skyQuake has said,




Refer to above post.



> You are SO wrong.
> 
> They do. Get the data and calculate it for yourself. The open you are using is opening data for stocks A-B. Not the opening of the XAO.





It is the one and the same. That is the nature of the XAO. If the computers could handle all trades instantaniously they would, but they can't and that's just how it works everyday, regular as clockwork.

Of course the first stocks to open trading are A, B, C etc... and those trades are adjusted according to the opening proceedure for calculating the price of each particular stock. Those prices then stand as do the one's 10 minutes later for X, Y and Z stocks. 

None of those stock trade prices are again later averaged and adjusted after all open trades have been processed to any theoritical opening price of the XAO.

It's a dynamic index and if sentiment changes based on the result of the A and B trades thats how it stays. Similarly with the closing prices.


----------



## Whiskers (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> I accept your criticism that it was in a mindless insult.




Thank you.


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers do you or have you ever seen Live Dynamic quoting of the XAO. Have you seen how the open price is even quoted? the very First tick of the day?

It would seem not. If you did you would see that it's completely fanciful as to what is actually happening on the open. even for the A-B opening prices.


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> It's a dynamic index and if sentiment changes based on the result of the A and B trades thats how it stays. Similarly with the closing prices.




FYI

Its Actually not quoted Dynamically Its quoted Live snapshot every 30 seconds.


----------



## tech/a (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> And besides, if I posted fib analysis info, we would have the Elliot Wavers adding it in and calling it theirs




Nothing new to Elliott exponents Fib has always been a companion component of Wave analysis.Its how extensions and retracements are measured always has been.

Id be interested in treefrogs "Fib analysis info".Particularly in how he uses it in his trading.

Oh and on Gaps.
Breakaway gaps wont get filled.
Not all gaps get filled.


----------



## Real1ty (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers, quit while you are behind.

I have no prediction as such but do enjoy reading this thread as i feel i can learn a little here and there and it's good for a laugh also.

You have repeatedly said you are learning EW, yet mostly when anyone who is more experienced than you offers you advice on your predictions, you immediately look to prove them wrong and attempt to validate your predictions rather than considering their opinions and experienced advice.

You have been wrong so many times on this thread and others yet when you do get something right you smugly pronounce it to the world.

You complain about being insulted but have you considered why people insult you and not others? (The answer is above)


----------



## nunthewiser (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Personally enjoy whiskers posts  right or wrong and at least he willing to stick his neck out and make a call

i dont follow anyones calls here and suggest if people are using ppls analysis here as gospel then perhaps they in the wrong game

keep em coming whiskers and all others that give it a go and aint this place for sharing views of how ya see things anyways ?

you will notice i didnt say i agree with said analysis and that goes with most ppls views here with the odd exceptions who i would be silly to ignore what they point out as time has proven they are more correct than incorrect .

thanks for ALL views here


----------



## $20shoes (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hmmm, I'm glad Whiskers is deflecting attention away from my latest analysis..good on ya' Whiskers..But I did state that I'm using weekly data...I still have 4 trading days before possibly being wrong beyond a shadow of a doubt ...though one never truly knows, until it comes to pass.

Let's not forget that we are all at varying stages of knowledge and all use different methods and disciplines (some of us use no discipline apparently). I certainly consider myself as being in the formative stages and glean a lot from more experienced posters here. But I'd hate to be taken to task so harshly by those I consider mentors. It would probably stop me posting ( I know there's an opening here, but please refrain...lol). Teachers who berate don't make for very good teachers. And to an extent, that is an unspoken role some of you have here - whether you want it or not. 
Students - if you hand in your homework, you should expect some red-ink corrections. Take it graciously...learn from it.  

Agree that if you are going to stick your cohunas out there, you deserve to cop a bit of heat. But sometimes you guys are gleefully pouring Dencorub all over those bad boys...(its not a nice experience, trust me...can't really say too much more on this subject). 

Anyway, I'm off my soapbox now...And remember kids, the world really is wonderful.


----------



## treefrog (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Nothing new to Elliott exponents Fib has always been a companion component of Wave analysis.Its how extensions and retracements are measured always has been.
> Id be interested in treefrogs "Fib analysis info".Particularly in how he uses it in his trading.




tech,
it was Boggo who posted the original 3250 fib target (posts#5119 and 5120)
bankit agreed (#5122) and reinforced.
Skyquake (#5123) and logique concurred.
can get the basic idea of fib clusters/confluence from these posts (enough to get you into trouble anyway)
All I did was concur that fib confluence is building strongly at this level as pointed out by bankit.
Yes, rudimentary fib is used in EW but not the more reliable (imo) confluence/cluster analysis referred to here.
There are salesmen out there who will sell you courses and books on it - some "free" stuff designed to suck you in and take your loot (just like the EW sites) is www.fibnodes.com/index.asp  - (di napoli system) 
In a nutshell - the 3250 level is worth bearing in mind - only 550 more points to go.
Will it go straight there or get there after a (b) upleg and final (c) leg, or not at all??? - as always just trade what is there not what you expect or hope for.


----------



## Aussiejeff (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Praise be to QGC (with some assistance by BHP) for lifting the All Ords out of its mid-day slump...

QGC up near +80% with trades worth $AU650million+ for the day - approx. twice the value of BHP.

XAO might benefit tomorrow from another mass sale by QGC holders?


aj


----------



## MRC & Co (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> FYI
> 
> Its Actually not quoted Dynamically Its quoted Live snapshot every 30 seconds.




Is it true through Reuters I think it was, you can get it quicker than every 30 secs?  Thought I heard that the other day.  Would be useful, time is of the essence on cash lately when the futs are trying to push it to new lows.


----------



## stoner (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Call it Elliott Wave Theory counting  beginners luck,

but DJIA looks to be holding the 10th October lows. Perhaps we may not get that fifth wave follow through after the 4th wave triangle pattern OZG?

It's my understanding, that if a 3rd wave has traversed "too far and too fast" as possibly in this case, a fifth wave failure is a high probability. Either that or perhaps it could be we are dealing with a completely different type of wave count (other than an impulse_ and pattern as mentioned in my last post.
 I can't for the life of me see an impulse down from the high of last year, it still looks very corrective. I will stick with that wave count in that post for now, and that one says bullish for the next few days and POSSIBLY  weeks.

All the best

STONER


----------



## Whiskers (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Whiskers do you or have you ever seen Live Dynamic quoting of the XAO. Have you seen how the open price is even quoted? the very First tick of the day?
> 
> It would seem not. If you did you would see that it's completely fanciful as to what is actually happening on the open. even for the A-B opening prices.




Yes indeed TH, I often watch my portfolio, watchlist and indicies as they progress through the opening process on my 'dynamic' platform.



Trembling Hand said:


> FYI
> 
> Its Actually not quoted Dynamically Its quoted Live snapshot every 30 seconds.




I didn't say the XAO was quoted dynamically... I said it was a dynamic index... as opposed to the 'adjusting to estimated opening price' irrelevance that you got off the topic with.



Real1ty said:


> You have been wrong so many times on this thread and others yet when you do get something right you smugly pronounce it to the world.




Well, I'm pleased that you recognise that I get it right ocassionally  ... actually, I've been right more often than wrong... and com'on Real1ty, 'smugly'... well what's wrong with a bit of self praise in jest when one gets a good call. That's part of the fun of posting on the forum.  

And I believe tech/a, among those I've dissagreed with at times, but respect none-the-less, because at least they haven't degenerated into mindless personality bashing to try to win a point... has often said wisely that it's not whether one's forecast is right or wrong, (we're all wrong sometimes) but about adapting one's analysis, and trades as the dynamics change.

Oh and no, I'm not 'behind' and I ain't quitting.



> You complain about being insulted but have you considered why people insult you and not others?




Firstly Real1ty, *these people insult and abuse quite a few posters over the time to the extent that some don't post again *to avoid being continuously insulted and abused by a few. 

*So you seem to be saying, as demonstrated by a few here, that by dissagreeing with some self-pronounced and selfrightious experts and exercising one's right to post good calls even if smugly, is legitimate grounds for someone to insult and abuse you... I don't think so mate. *

*That's getting pretty close to the (ill)logic/distortion of the provocation defence... of saying  pretty girls who go out at night as being to blame for rapists who attack them... because they were pretty and flirting.*




nunthewiser said:


> Personally enjoy whiskers posts  right or wrong and at least he willing to stick his neck out and make a call




 ...often contrarian or the devils advocate.

Thanks nun... a few have expressed a similar dissagreement but respect for my right to be different... including motorway, kennas, kauri, Julia, Cuttlefish, Uncle F, MR C among MANY others.





$20shoes said:


> Hmmm, I'm glad Whiskers is deflecting attention away from my latest analysis..good on ya' Whiskers..[/COLOR].
> 
> That's alright mate. I think. :
> 
> But I'd hate to be taken to task so harshly by those I consider mentors. It would probably stop me posting ( I know there's an opening here, but please refrain...lol). *Teachers who berate don't make for very good teachers *




You are a wise person $20shoes and a gentleman to boot. 

Oh and just on the point of morning stars arco here seems to be pretty professional and uses morning stars. 

Thanks for that arco... I owe yer one. 



arco said:


> Yes that was an idea spot, and I did scalp 300 based off that *Morning Star *(see earlier post), however, it was also possible the action might just venture in the Kumo a little more, so that was the reason to take profits early.
> 
> rgds - arco


----------



## Whiskers (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Call it Elliott Wave Theory counting  beginners luck,
> 
> but DJIA looks to be holding the 10th October lows. Perhaps we may not get that fifth wave follow through after the 4th wave triangle pattern OZG?
> 
> ...




Hey stoner, I'm one of the 'L' plate EW'ers and flavour of the day whipping boy... hope I don't get you in the bad books by association  ... but, I'm pretty much in agreement with you. 

Fwiw the Standard deviation Channel I posted earlier seems to suggest this correction is pretty close to done/overdone.

Re the Dow, of the trifecta of morning stars I mentioned earlier, the Dow is probably the most legitimate one because it had a very clear gap down. The others were actually more a step down. 

It hasn't breeched the low, so I'm still optermistic for the short term at least.


----------



## dhukka (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> ... actually, I've been right more often than wrong...




Absolutely hilarious. You are truly living in an alternate reality. :aliena:


----------



## Whiskers (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Absolutely hilarious. You are truly living in an alternate reality. :aliena:




alternate to yours... absolutely.

But really, dhukka it's sad that all you can focus on is trying to be-little others that dissagree with you.

Sorta like the stalking 'toxic' abuser/rapist in denial...  trying to rant up his (ill)logical defence.

So, since you're here, and this thread is about the XAO, not me,  what is it about the XAO you want to discuss?


----------



## dhukka (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers, you are an absolute, utter joke, you have been continually wrong on every front, fundamental and technical. You've gone beyond being a revisionist and in denial to just flat out telling lies. You have been comprehensively wrong and I will continue to point it out to set the record straight. 

As for the XAO, it will either go up or down tomorrow, that summarises the vast majority of the tea leaf reading that passes for analysis on this thread.


----------



## Whiskers (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> As for the XAO, it will either go up or down tomorrow, that summarises the vast majority of the tea leaf reading that passes for analysis on this thread.




WOW!

So... you haven't much of a clue about the XAO, don't trade, are just an armchair critic... and that somehow gives you the right to belittle the vast majority of analysis on this thread! 

And didn't you claim to be a professional... a former adviser to major banks... and teaching economics or something.

Whew, heaven help your poor students and those banks you advise/ed.

OK, since you're not interested in a positive contribution to discussion of the XAO I'll say good night.


----------



## Ruincity (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Far out..

I've only been here for a few weeks and i'm scared... 


Umm XAO analysis.

Not exactly much analysis but i'll give it a go:

From the daily XAO chart.

Dragonfly Doji:  A Doji where the open and close price are at the high of the day. Like other Doji days, this one normally appears at market turning points.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....t_analysis:candlestick_pattern_#dragonflydoji

Probably a little more of a hammer but I like the Dragonfly explanation....

Anyway seems to co-incide with with US Futures skyrocketing and the majority of asia having a good day we may be in for a short rally tomorrow at least. 
Was a decent run home for the XAO. 
Just for whiskers...


----------



## dhukka (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> WOW!
> 
> So... you haven't much of a clue about the XAO, don't trade, are just an armchair critic... and that somehow gives you the right to belittle the vast majority of analysis on this thread!
> 
> ...




Show me one person on this thread who has a better than 50% success rate at calling direction on the XAO. Most who post their technical analysis on this thread do it with humilitiy and I have no problem with them being wrong half the time, I fully expect it. However you are unable to do that, you post with an arrogance and certitude that is not waranted given your track record. 

I freely admit I have no better than a 50/50 idea of calling short term movements, if you had the ability to be honest with yourself you would too. I would like to note that my my estimate of a bottom on the XAO between 3400 - 3800 doesn't look too bad compared to the bottom you called some 1200 points ago. 

I have never been an advisor to banks and have never claimed to be, please check your facts before posting nonsense.


----------



## chops_a_must (28 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> I would like to note that my my estimate of a bottom on the XAO between 3400 - 3800 doesn't look too bad compared to the bottom you called some 1200 points ago.



2000 points I think.


----------



## chops_a_must (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Indie said:


> Hehehe, nice one.
> 
> I'm going long denial and short common sense investing.




hello,

yes, denial has worked for property investing, so why would it not shares

depression looming, corporate defaults likely, which is great for markets like we will now see

thankyou,
chopbots


----------



## Whiskers (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Ruincity said:


> Far out..
> 
> I've only been here for a few weeks and i'm scared...
> 
> ...




Good-on-ya Ruincity.


----------



## Whiskers (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Show me one person on this thread who has a better than 50% success rate at calling direction on the XAO.




Dhukka, that's the different worlds we're in... I simply don't get into personality point scoreing. 



> Most who post their technical analysis on this thread do it with humilitiy and I have no problem with them being wrong half the time, I fully expect it. However you are unable to do that, you post with an arrogance and certitude that is not waranted given your track record.




Well... you seem to take offence, most don't. What can I say, but repeat... perceived  provocation is no defence.  

_Firstly Real1ty, these people insult and abuse quite a few posters over the time to the extent that some don't post again to avoid being continuously insulted and abused by a few. 

So you seem to be saying, as demonstrated by a few here, that by dissagreeing with some self-pronounced and selfrightious experts and exercising one's right to post good calls even if smugly, is legitimate grounds for someone to insult and abuse you... I don't think so mate. 

*That's getting pretty close to the (ill)logic/distortion of the provocation defence... of saying pretty girls who go out at night as being to blame for rapists who attack them... [deserved it] because they were pretty and flirting.*_​


> I have never been an advisor to banks and have never claimed to be, please check your facts before posting nonsense.




Ok, I did ask... I'll dig up the post if I have to... but you mentioned in the context of your 'important' role as I recall, analyzing banks. Was it advising/reports/whatever to some other party. 

So OK, I'll withdraw and rephrase:
_Whew, heaven help your poor students and those (insert whoever applicable) you advise/ed_.​
...in the context that:
_But I'd hate to be taken to task so harshly by those I consider mentors. It would probably stop me posting ( I know there's an opening here, but please refrain...lol). *Teachers who berate don't make for very good teachers*​_
WOW... that morning star worked a treat on the DOW overnight. Good gains in base metals too, so a bonza day coming here by the looks.


----------



## chops_a_must (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> WOW... that morning star worked a treat on the DOW overnight. Good gains in base metals too, so a bonza day coming here by the looks.



Just like my tiger rock worked a treat in stopping me being eaten by a tiger overnight.


----------



## Nyden (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Just like my tiger rock worked a treat in stopping me being eaten by a tiger overnight.




These are very worrisome times, and roaming tigers are always a concern. I would like to buy your magic rock from you, chops.

 ... Sorry for the pointless post


----------



## Kauri (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is anyone keeping score... ???... 
    or is it a pointless draw???
      maybe all too busy analysing the XAO??

  Bemused
................Kauri


----------



## prawn_86 (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My question is will this be another bull trap? 

Personally i wouldnt expect a rise on the DOW tonight as profit takers might move in. I might just wait and see before i buy anything again


----------



## amory (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

why is everyone on this thread arguing the toss over XAO when all that's required is a glance at the DowJones of a morning?  we don't ALWAYS follow the Dow on a daily basis, but we will invariably toe the line ...

(a) on major moves
(b) on overall trend

anyone wants to predict the course of the XAO, should first try & learn how to read the Dow.  it would save a lot of unnecessary disagreement.  for instance, do we all expect a 200-point rise in today's XAO?

there you are, wasn't that easy?


----------



## nunthewiser (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



amory said:


> why is everyone on this thread arguing the toss over XAO when all that's required is a glance at the DowJones of a morning?  we don't ALWAYS follow the Dow on a daily basis, but we will invariably toe the line ...
> 
> (a) on major moves
> (b) on overall trend
> ...




yeah but that dont makea da moola !! ... big jump on the dow usually leads to a big jump on open here .. too late 70% of the time to actually enter and make a quid , the idea is to enter before the jump and sell into the strength hence all the guesswork BEFORE the fact.......just my 2 cents


----------



## white_goodman (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

whats the current count for you wavers out there?


----------



## Grinder (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> yeah but that dont makea da moola !! ... big jump on the dow usually leads to a big jump on open here .. too late 70% of the time to actually enter and make a quid , the idea is to enter before the jump and sell into the strength hence all the guesswork BEFORE the fact.......just my 2 cents




like entering an hour before the market closed yesterday, when there were indicators that there could be a bounce today.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> whats the current count for you wavers out there?




Longer Term XAO posted yesterday https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=355016&postcount=175

S&P500 Longer Term https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=354062&postcount=5307

Haven't looked at short term XAO yet, but around 4400 looks like a reasonable target area - probably a zig-zag pattern to get there. If anyone is interested, I'm happy to post the very short term wave pattern for the S&P500 wave iv triangle scenario (all session data)


----------



## white_goodman (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Longer Term XAO posted yesterday https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=355016&postcount=175
> 
> S&P500 Longer Term https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=354062&postcount=5307
> 
> Haven't looked at short term XAO yet, but around 4400 looks like a reasonable target area - probably a zig-zag pattern to get there. If anyone is interested, I'm happy to post the very short term wave pattern for the S&P500 wave iv triangle scenario (all session data)




cheers, does that mean the XAO may finish as low as 1500?


----------



## dhukka (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Just like my tiger rock worked a treat in stopping me being eaten by a tiger overnight.




Haha brilliant, I usually find sleeping with a red sock on left foot usually works for that one.


----------



## stoner (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> whats the current count for you wavers out there?




Refer to charts for XAO and SP500 as follows:-

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=354305&postcount=5317


I posted these charts last weekend, and they vary from OWG's. My analysis says the low in the SP500 occured 10th October (Supercycle wave A). The  B wave upward rally started after 10th October and we have been in that since, but is more significant now after the rejection of the 10th Ocotober lows.  

It's bery interesting at this juncture. The DJIA decline is almost as much in % terms as the crash of 29 and Nasdaq initial crash decline. Both these saw an upward rally retracing approximately 50% of the losses in almost the same amount of time it took for the decline. The nasty wave C that follows as stated in earlier posts is the killer. But for now BULLISH.

Had the ALL Ordinaries finishing this decline this week as evidenced in the numbering of the EW chart. Whether that will be right or wrong, not sure.

Will see what the market throws at us in the coming weeks chaps.

All the best 

STONER


----------



## nunthewiser (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

thanks for all discussions , analysis , arguments , humour and all other spects you luverly bunch bring to the table , i have a problem keeping within the posting guidlines and a little slow on the uptake in that dept so will bid you farewll and lurk in the shadows instead 

thanks for your genorosity 

cheers an illiterate nun


----------



## amory (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Grinder said:


> like entering an hour before the market closed yesterday, when there were indicators that there could be a bounce today.




interesting observation, Grinder!  this brings me to ...

(c) [refer my preceding post for (a) & (b) ... there ARE times when our market is actually able to anticipate the DowJones.  example:  suppose a major event takes place overseas, during our trading session but well ahead of tonite's Dow.  the kind of thing that is absolutely certain to take the Dow DOWN or UP.  eg a terrorist attack, or some good news re interest rates or the war is over, something like that.  evidently the Dow can't do a thing becoz its not trading yet, but we are!!  so we can act ahead of the Dow.

the exception, not the rule!  mind you, I don't know WHY there would have been indicators last night such as you are mentioning, but sometimes people with their ear to the ground & the right kind of contacts overseas are able to anticipate better than you & I can do.

technically one might add, a bounce was of course long overdue.  but that is insufficient basis for the commitment of money, on a hunch as it were.

Enter the Dow.


----------



## amory (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Longer Term XAO posted yesterday https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=355016&postcount=175
> 
> S&P500 Longer Term https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=354062&postcount=5307
> 
> Haven't looked at short term XAO yet, but around 4400 looks like a reasonable target area - probably a zig-zag pattern to get there. If anyone is interested, I'm happy to post the very short term wave pattern for the S&P500 wave iv triangle scenario (all session data)




that's not a very cheerful outlook!  looking years ahead ... I didn't even know one could do that ... & disregarding the various fluctuations, but 4400 is the absolute top, is that correct?  am I reading the chart correctly?

bearing in mind that it's barely a month ago the XAO first fell below that.  I mean isn't there any room for recovery in the medium term?  considering that EW chartists usually plot in a variety of probabilities, and one of them more often than not turns out to be right.


----------



## treefrog (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> thanks for all discussions , analysis , arguments , humour and all other spects you luverly bunch bring to the table , i have a problem keeping within the posting guidlines and a little slow on the uptake in that dept so will bid you farewll and lurk in the shadows instead
> 
> thanks for your genorosity
> 
> cheers an illiterate nun




sincerely disappointed to see that nun - appreciated your posts - we can all drift out of guidelines at times: know you will continue to do well despite not winning the ASF best 'within guidelines' poster award. Matter of fact don't think I will win it either.
cheerz
yes I know:topic


----------



## MRC & Co (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is my personal problem with EW.  Long-term targets.

Fundamentals obviously (at least I think it is plain obvious), drive long-term markets, not market psychology.  So I don't see how technical analysis (or a form of it - EW), can possibly predict such a thing or how some believe it can.  Years out?  WHO KNOWS how the crowd will behave, will the crisis flush itself out or not?  That will be seen with time, not psychology.  It is the short-term interpretations of immediate fundamental news or interpretation of future fundamentals, which can be traded effectively IMVHO.


----------



## treefrog (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> But for now BULLISH.
> 
> Had the ALL Ordinaries finishing this decline this week as evidenced in the numbering of the EW chart. Whether that will be right or wrong, not sure.
> 
> STONER




Hi Stoner,
subject as you say to this week confirming, we have ending down wave confluence of:
wave *c*
wave *C*
wave (a) (the biggie)
surely if EW is worth the effort, this is what it is all about and the call should be "i'm all in" rather than a timid "But for now BULLISH"??
and could you clarify bullish expectations,
is it ST bullish (a week or two)
or MT bullish ( 6-12months)?
I gather its MT, or the 50% bear exhaustion break up?


----------



## stoner (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> Hi Stoner,
> subject as you say to this week confirming, we have ending down wave confluence of:
> wave *c*
> wave *C*
> ...





Hi treefrog,

I went long 2 days ago, refer to the following post:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=354619&postcount=5326


As stated in that post, I am long Dec calls. This is not a long term trade.

To answer your questions. I had a turn date for my wave count. (Oh.... and I don't try to be an expert at EW... I am definately a begginer). That turn date was the 30th October however these do come early or late sometimes. I am not going to delve into how and way I arrived at this date, suffice to say the next one is on 7th November. I am bullish at least till then.

As mentioned earlier I am present assuming this decline has completed and that a good rally has started. I used the crash of 29 and Nasdaq as examples to this.  For now, I am only worried about navigating my trades with a bullish stance into the next week. I am not gonna say what is gonna happen long term because I have no bloody idea like everybody else here. Even if I did , I would not be game enough to stick my neck out here.

MRC.

This is my opinion regarding fundementals. They don't drive the market. People do the buying and selling in the market, and peoples perceptions of the fundementals is what drives the market. That perception is not always logical is it?

All the best

STONER


----------



## tech/a (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> This is my personal problem with EW.  Long-term targets.
> 
> Fundamentals obviously (at least I think it is plain obvious), drive long-term markets, not market psychology.  So I don't see how technical analysis (or a form of it - EW), can possibly predict such a thing or how some believe it can.  Years out?  WHO KNOWS how the crowd will behave, will the crisis flush itself out or not?  That will be seen with time, not psychology.  It is the short-term interpretations of immediate fundamental news or interpretation of future fundamentals, which can be traded effectively IMVHO.





Elliott or any other analysis doesnt predict whare a market will go.
All it does is give levels where the market could go.
These are areas of interest to the analyst until proven or disproven.
They represent possible entry and exit points nothing more.

Fundamental analysis is NO different.
If you listen to CNN views change almost hrly!
I would be interested in your practical implementation of your fundamental philosophy! In the short or long term.


----------



## Grinder (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



amory said:


> interesting observation, Grinder!  this brings me to ...
> 
> (c) [refer my preceding post for (a) & (b) ... there ARE times when our market is actually able to anticipate the DowJones.  example:  suppose a major event takes place overseas, during our trading session but well ahead of tonite's Dow.  the kind of thing that is absolutely certain to take the Dow DOWN or UP.  eg a terrorist attack, or some good news re interest rates or the war is over, something like that.  evidently the Dow can't do a thing becoz its not trading yet, but we are!!  so we can act ahead of the Dow.
> 
> ...





The only indicators I considered, whether they be deemed indicators or not; was the reaction of the overseas markets late in the day, how the AUS market reacted to this, news at play and the direction of the US futures. Ofcourse you would'nt commit funds to this type of speculation, there are too many external variables at play. However, if you were looking to make a play it's equally as credible as any other 'analysis' Im seeing in this emotion filled market. DYOR


----------



## MRC & Co (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> MRC.
> 
> This is my opinion regarding fundementals. They don't drive the market. People do the buying and selling in the market, and peoples perceptions of the fundementals is what drives the market. That perception is not always logical is it?
> 
> ...




Stoner and Tech,

Peoples perceptions of fundamentals are currently negative.  So what happens if positive news comes out, if banks start becoming profitable in the next 18 months and China resumes growth?  What is the point of your 2 year + analysis?  It is based on waves of crowd behaviour right?  But that will CONSIDERABLY alter over time, the longer the timeframe, the further that will alter.  Fundamentals drive markets in the long-run, regardless of what anybody says.  It is plain obvious.  So why has the stock market risen in the US throughout a boom period and fallen throughout a recession?  

Pretty obvious.  Not because of perceptions which can only be traded short-term IMHO, especially when it comes to application.


----------



## prawn_86 (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Its like a 'reversion to the mean' with long term fundamentals. Over short and medium terms cos prices are above or below 'fair value' but in the longer term they seem to average out.

I have to agree with MRC, I dont see how TA can forecast crowd behaivour years in advance


----------



## frenzel (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is it possible with lots of people trading on TA and using software tools, that it becomes in itself a self fulfilling prophecy?  At least to some extent? 

On a slight aside, the Fed are currently in a 2-3 day meeting on their next rate move.  Looking at the Dow chart, things strangely rocketed toward the end of the day.  Now I don't know why, as there were no major stories that I know of.  But is it possible that some news has leaked out about the Feds next move to some major players.

Announcement tomorrow US time I think, so if it is good news and made public, then could see another good run tomorrow.  Just a theory though.


----------



## motorway (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Fundamentals

are what is thought

Sentiment

is what is felt

Technicals
are a measure of what is 
actually done..

In the Beginning was the deed
thought and feelings
then follow
along with rationalizations
.....

markets go up so they can go down
on all scales..

How fine do you want to pick the bottom ?
means to what degree you follow
the waves that build

down to "dead centre"

eg YOU can not get a bull market
till there is an UP fractal

ie the red line crosses the blue

so waiting till even then is OK ( or even later
till it has moved sideways as far it moves  downwards ( need foundation) etc etc )

or follow waves 
tease apart Price Volume Time
down to the  tic that matters

Identify After
do not predict before
but always anticipate

that upside count is not really there
 and maybe becomes a downside count 

It does not exist until it is activated.


motorway


----------



## motorway (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Motorway your P&F chart seems to suggest the XAO has about bottomed bottomed out on the trend line...




Markets always Overshoot 
ALWAYS

because of expectancies

We price what we think will happen tomorrow TODAY

Such that tomorrows actual price is different

Wait for a clear bottom
A Sign of Strength
and a CLEAR --LAST POINT OF SUPPORT

A clear Jump over  the flow of supply
( a sign that "they" have all the stocks and a panic is impossible )

IF ( big IF ) we shoot under the same the top shot over

here is that chart atm  (all is flux though  )

"They"

use Price NEWS and time to manipulate
so the best laid plans are always undone

whose plans ?
Who is manipulated ?


of those who it is said 
 will never see "it" go up until after they sell.

The only thing that can tell us when that last point of support comes
is the tape... what is done , the deeds..

motorway


----------



## sam76 (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sometimes I really hate our market's position within the global time frame.

Are we celebrating yesterday or fearing tomorrow?

can't catch a break either way!


----------



## stoner (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi MRC,

I respect your opinion re fundamentals, but you have failed to answer the crux of tech/a’s question here. How does one successfully apply fundamentals in trading? 

Over 12 months ago, you would have struggled to find  economists or fund managers who base decisions from FA that were bearish the market, but there we many more cries from technicians warning of inevitable collapse. Why is this so?

The way I see it, the market movement is an expression of crowd mass psychology. As mentioned earlier its peoples perceptions that make markets move. Hope, fear and greed have always been the propellent of markets NOT fundamentals. As an example, take the dot.com boom. Was it fundamentals that drove that boom? What fundamentals? Simple answer: NONE

Another example. What drove the recent Oil bubble? Surely not just supply and demand! What has changed in  3 months for god sake?

The latest movements in the markets have been charged with one emotion: FEAR, which is the psychological reality as expressed by the movements of the stock market and other markets. The economic reality comes after that, as in a recession. So you see fundamental analysis does not lead the market, therefore you cannot successfully apply it consistently. As you mentioned, you don’t know what’s gonna happen tomorrow. The chart if properly analysed gives you something; we can look at circumstances and probable technical setups to trade from. Which is better than nothing.

When you think about it MRC, this really is a silly debate we are having here, because what causes the trends in the market is not really that important or doesn't really have to be explained. What is important, is identifying a trend irrespective of whatever has causes it, and joining in isn't and most of all trying to find ways of determing when that trend is at risk of ending. 

All the best

STONER


----------



## korrupt_1 (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sam76 said:


> Sometimes I really hate our market's position within the global time frame.
> 
> Are we celebrating yesterday or fearing tomorrow?
> 
> can't catch a break either way!




same here.... its hard work figuring which way it's going to be heading... before, the market was tamed and almost predictable,.. but now it's like a wild beast that has a mind of it's own.

lately, i've been trading 1hr trends and catching the larger moves. i get many false entries, but because of the volatility, if you catch a good run, it'll more than make up for the losses on the false entries.


----------



## motorway (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Stoner and Tech,
> 
> Peoples perceptions of fundamentals are currently negative.  So what happens if positive news comes out, if banks start becoming profitable in the next 18 months and China resumes growth?  What is the point of your 2 year + analysis?  It is based on waves of crowd behaviour right?  But that will CONSIDERABLY alter over time, the longer the timeframe, the further that will alter.  Fundamentals drive markets in the long-run, regardless of what anybody says.  It is plain obvious.  So why has the stock market risen in the US throughout a boom period and fallen throughout a recession?
> 
> Pretty obvious.  Not because of perceptions which can only be traded short-term IMHO, especially when it comes to application.




The "Method" takes for granted: 



> That the price of a stock at any given time is its correct valuation up to the instant of purchase and sales (a) by the consensus of all buyers and sellers in the world and (b) by the verdict of all of the forces governing the laws of supply and demand.
> 
> That the price of a stock reflects or crystallizes everything known about or bearing on from the first sale on the Exchange (or Prior) up to that time.
> 
> ...




the *Bold *text Qualifies all... Including fundamentals ( the rest of the text ) because the fundamentals that matter are of tomorrow and only unfold and are only known by the very few.....


Question

How much is just demand deferral atm
and not really demand destruction

guess what will reveal ?  

demand deferral will cause overshoot to the downside
those expectancies

motorway


----------



## treefrog (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Markets always Overshoot ALWAYS
> 
> Wait for a clear bottom
> A Sign of Strength
> ...




nice post Mr M - clear and (becoming) concise


----------



## dhukka (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



frenzel said:


> On a slight aside, the Fed are currently in a 2-3 day meeting on their next rate move.  Looking at the Dow chart, things strangely rocketed toward the end of the day.  Now I don't know why, as there were no major stories that I know of.  But is it possible that some news has leaked out about the Feds next move to some major players.
> 
> Announcement tomorrow US time I think, so if it is good news and made public, then could see another good run tomorrow.  Just a theory though.




I think this Fed meeting is potentially one of the least important they have had over the last 12 - 15 months. The effective Fed funds rate is currently trading below 1.0%, in essence there has already been a 'stealth' easing. I would fully expect some type of knee jerk reaction after the announcement, whatever the verdict but it will be indicative of very little. If however, as has been bandied about, a coordinated rate cut is announced in tandem with the ECB and the UK it may have more import in the short term.


----------



## treefrog (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Fundamentalsare what is thought
> Sentimentis what is felt
> Technicalsare a measure of what is actually done..
> 
> ...




also nice post Mr M 
clear and (also becoming) concise


----------



## OzWaveGuy (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Hi MRC,
> 
> I respect your opinion re fundamentals, but you have failed to answer the crux of tech/a’s question here. How does one successfully apply fundamentals in trading? ...




Agreed. Whilst fundamentals influence individual stock movement in the short term, hence Elliottwave doesn't always apply here (and perhaps where the confusion lies), but at a market level, the crowd is the one driving it - and there are patterns of how social mood can be recognized.

Changes in Interest rates, GDP, Growth, employment, oil prices are ultimately a  result of human expansion or contraction (aka progress). It is humans that drive the expansion and contraction - not market events. Market events are driven by Human social mood, whether it be positive or negative. 

You can be sure of one thing - the financial reporters will find a way to join an event to the action in the market and when the market reverses an hour later the reporter will create an alternative story as to why the market reversed.


----------



## nunthewiser (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

thanks treefrog . u know where we are


----------



## treefrog (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Hi MRC,
> 
> I respect your opinion re fundamentals, but you have failed to answer the crux of tech/a’s question here. How does one successfully apply fundamentals in trading?



frog has spent a lot of time up this tree and was once "analysed" (after answering some highly paid d'heads 50 questions as having a bias towards analysis - paralysis from analysis is near enough.
And has applied and traded many combo's on TA and FA forming the following conclusions for stocks.
1) the only way of trading pure FA (no chart) is to weigh up the fundamentals and wait for positive announcements - I have seldom heard of people trading FA: but investing yes!
2)MT is best suited to a combo
3)ST is best suited to a combo with most weight toTA

so the debate boils down to what timeframe and what market.
e.g. FX puts the lie to not being able to trade ST on fundamentals (announcements) - this market seems not to leak like the insider problems that stocks have.


----------



## MRC & Co (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Actually, many fundamentalists were calling for an end to this bull market for some time.  See Uncle Festivus, Dhukka (on the severe and imminent market correction thread).  No doubt, it is hard to invest based on fundamentals and far harder currently (as nobody actually knows what is going on).

But, fundamental news and sentiment changes over time.  Which is why I find it impossible for EW or any form of TA to give any indication of how the market will move years out from now.

IMHO, and agreed upon by others like Linda Bradford Raschke, TA works best on very short time-frames, the shorter, the better, as there is no chance for fundamental news to alter sentiment and you can therefore look for sentiment through current supply and demand, second by second if you will (see TH and scalping).  

Years?  Sentiment and CURRENT crowd behaviour gives NO indication and hence, no need for any type of TA or application.  Crystal ball gazing to me.  

Oh and fundamental news can EASILY be traded for those with the fastest execution and news feed.  Unexpected news with an expected reaction to that unexpected news, will just give you more conviction (see latest 1% interest rate slash).

You can make your own conclusions, just throwing my opinion out there, as I see most of this EW analysis for years out a complete waste of time.  Like any form of TA, only think it would work short-term.


----------



## tech/a (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Actually, many fundamentalists were calling for an end to this bull market for some time.  See Uncle Festivus, Dhukka (on the severe and imminent market correction thread).  No doubt, it is hard to invest based on fundamentals and far harder currently (as nobody actually knows what is going on).
> 
> But, fundamental news and sentiment changes over time.  Which is why I find it impossible for EW or any form of TA to give any indication of how the market will move years out from now.
> 
> ...




You may find myself as an unexpected supporter of some of your views.
I agree that ANY long term analysis of any kind can only indicate a probability.
This can and does alter with time.

Most analysis is only good for near term.
Even Fundamental.
VSA is only applicable to the next 3 or so bars in whichever time frame your trading.
Elliott I have found best in shorter time frames.
Conventional tech analysis is only applicable to the duration of a setup sell or buy---its either proven or dis proven.

I made a lot of $$s on a technical equivalent of trading "news"
I used to have live Volume increase%/Number of shares traded increase %/Gap %/and price increase % data.
A simple glance at the columns would show me instantly runners in realtime.
I could get on and then trade short term technical analysis.I vividly remember one trade which went from 5.4c to 10c over the day 4 hrs actually and I got 90% of it with some real $$s

Did very well until Marketcast folded!

Must look into that again.

Ah found it again!!
http://www.markettools.com.au/
Must ring Scott and set this up through E signal!


----------



## frenzel (29 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> I think this Fed meeting is potentially one of the least important they have had over the last 12 - 15 months. The effective Fed funds rate is currently trading below 1.0%, in essence there has already been a 'stealth' easing. I would fully expect some type of knee jerk reaction after the announcement, whatever the verdict but it will be indicative of very little. If however, as has been bandied about, a coordinated rate cut is announced in tandem with the ECB and the UK it may have more import in the short term.




In agreeance with some previous posts that sentiment is what runs markets.  If the Fed were to offer some radical rate cuts or moves, as I suspect, then this could provide a serious boost to the market, although short term definitely.  I'm still holding strong that there will be a serious announcement by the Fed tomorrow that will rock the markets on the basis of that late Dow trade.  I'm not putting cash on it, but still a hunch...

Today, the ASX reminded me of a dog you throw a ball to without letting the ball go.  It runs down the backyard, and then stops looking for the ball.  Then it slowly comes back with that stupid look on its face.  Tomorrow it could find the ball.


----------



## tech/a (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> If the Fed were to offer some radical rate cuts or moves, as I suspect, then this could provide a serious boost to the market,




Seems it was all priced into the rise yesterday.
Think its run its course.The benifits provided wont be seen for 6 mths or so.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I promise, I won't wade into any more "anti-Fundamentals drive the market" discussion - at the end of the day it's whatever works for you right?

When you wake up today and switch on the news or read the web sites today you'll probably see a headline reflecting the media's analysis of what happened on the US markets last night, and you'll say "oh ok, that makes sense" or perhaps a profanity or two depending on what happened.

But make sure you understand how the headline was eventually derived.....


----------



## M34N (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> I promise, I won't wade into any more "anti-Fundamentals drive the market" discussion - at the end of the day it's whatever works for you right?
> 
> When you wake up today and switch on the news or read the web sites today you'll probably see a headline reflecting the media's analysis of what happened on the US markets last night, and you'll say "oh ok, that makes sense" or perhaps a profanity or two depending on what happened.
> 
> But make sure you understand how the headline was eventually derived.....




So true OWG, I watched the Dow this morning swing from +120 to +280 within an hour, then watched in those last 20 or so minutes when it dropped 300 from that high. What a roller coaster indeed, and it's so very typical to see the headlines change on sites like Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch and CNBC to 'suit the mood'.

But I guess that goes to show you, what fundamentals are there in this market? It's completely irrational, and the markets will move depending on what the big boys/hedge fund managers do, not what is fundamental.

I must admit though, the price of oil went up a fair bit (+$6US) and there was no headline about how that caused the markets to fall, even though it had been rising all afternoon along with the markets. Maybe it's no longer the flavour of the month to blame oil.

Anyway here's hoping for a half reasonable day on the markets today, our market performed very average yesterday considering the gains in the US, and the US done relatively well to only lose 1.5% after that big rally. You could of sworn our market was factoring in some 6% drop on the Dow this morning by the way it traded yesterday?


----------



## CAB SAV (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Would expect our market to be positive with resources & aus going up overnight. But the 64 dollar question will be tonight when US GDP data is released. Naturally expected to go down and if falls within "range" should be Ok, but if falls more, Well, back down again tomorrow.
Could go anyway, although with a bit of "tweeking" can look ok. Just like yesterday, Durable goods up 0.8% but take out transport/DEFENCE = -0.6% down. Wars er I mean defence certainly help their economy.


----------



## sails (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> ... It's completely irrational, and the markets will move depending on what the big boys/hedge fund managers do, not what is fundamental...




I think you've summed that up pretty well...


----------



## OzWaveGuy (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CAB SAV said:


> Would expect our market to be positive with resources & aus going up overnight....




I'll stick my neck out a little - usual caveats apply as the short term market pattern isn't confirmed. There will be a rally upto the 4000point mark or at least higher than the market yesterday. Followed by a reversal down to 3800 or less, but unlikely for a new low (but possible), followed by a rally to around 4200-4300.

Interpretation for Elliottwavers, Flat 3-3-5 correction upwards on the wave C leg of a 4th wave triangle  Pattern still needs to be confirmed - but is a top count at the moment.


----------



## $20shoes (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> I promise, I won't wade into any more "anti-Fundamentals drive the market" discussion - at the end of the day it's whatever works for you right?




Can I just raise one point on whatever works for you...??

Fundamentals, tea leaves, morning stars...whatever your approach, should it not simply be an "enabler" to trade. That is, your approach SHOULD be presenting the opportunity to trade. Read that sentence one more time. You don’t want your equity to grow so you have lots of money. That’s just a by-product of a strategy that can look after itself! Got nothing to do with how clever you are in picking a winner. You simply do not know what the market will do tomorrow. So manage you bad trades, manage your bad trades, manage your bad trades.

You simply want your equity to grow so as to give yourself the opportunity to trade more and more positions. That is it!! It's so simple it is actually boring.  BUT this is compounding at work!! The end result is profits - but THAT IS just the end result. You have no control over the market. But you do have control over a trading plan that will allow your equity to grow, and hence allow your trades to compound.  And you do have control with respect to exiting the markets.


If you bank on a probability that the majority of your trades should have turned a profit at some point down the road, are you robbing yourself of _opportunity?_. Is locked-in capital actually hurting your equity graph??

The fundamentals v technical argument is interesting but skewed really, because the arguments too often applaud their own virtues, at the expense of the more pertinent points - risk/opportunity/probability.

Give me tea leaves and blue moons, if a backtest can show a reliability and probability and prove your avg win is greater than your avg loss. 

Interesting question - if I opened 10 positions by randomly drawing them from a hat (whose contents is the XJO universe ) on a moon's waning crescent, and protected my capital with a stop and a 1% equity risk, and then closed out all my open positions on a waxing crescent and repeated the same exercise over and over again for 10 years, would I or would I not have a successful trading system ?? 

XAO - I thought I should mention it as it is the XAO thread


----------



## skyQuake (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> Interesting question - if I opened 10 positions by randomly drawing them from a hat (whose contents is the XJO universe ) on a moon's waning crescent, and protected my capital with a stop and a 1% equity risk, and then closed out all my open positions on a waxing crescent and repeated the same exercise over and over again for 10 years, would I or would I not have a successful trading system ??
> 
> XAO - I thought I should mention it as it is the XAO thread




Great. Way to spoil my secret trading strategy.


----------



## $20shoes (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Great. Way to spoil my secret trading strategy.




Haha SkyQuake...I'm using that one too!!! It thought it was my own...Damn, now the market's going to discount it, just as I was on to our generation's  "Turtle Traders" road to riches...


----------



## stoner (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> I promise, I won't wade into any more "anti-Fundamentals drive the market" discussion - at the end of the day it's whatever works for you right?
> 
> When you wake up today and switch on the news or read the web sites today you'll probably see a headline reflecting the media's analysis of what happened on the US markets last night, and you'll say "oh ok, that makes sense" or perhaps a profanity or two depending on what happened.
> 
> But make sure you understand how the headline was eventually derived.....




Hi OWG,

Totally agree with your comments here.

The media will always look for fundemental reasons to justify what the market did on a particular day. It really is just unbeleivable, and how they come to these conclusions is beyond me.

What I find very interesting though is, you may see for a example a technical pattern, be it with EW, Gann, or just any TA pattern analysis. You weigh up the probabilities, take a trade and the market does what your analysis says it has a good chance of doing. It's so strange how these TA related setups seem to coincide with news releases or events.  But there is a difference, with the news, sometimes not everybody knows when they will be released or what sort of news will be handed out. The chart, everyone has access to!

There is a lot more to this than most people think

All the best 

STONER


----------



## MRC & Co (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Media news from your local TV station or CNBC etc is hardly fundamental news by which you would take note.

Squawk box, Reuters etc, where you actually get news of which institutions trade upon and move markets is real fundamental news.  GDP figures, inflation, rate announcements etc.  You get it later from the other news outlets along with their BS analysis.  You are always simply trying to get on the side of the paper IMO (unless you are trading squeezes or reactions), and these guys don't turn on the news of a morning and trade on what they hear there.

Fundamentals and TA intertwine on a daily basis.  But no form, study or application of crowd psychology over a period of years has any usefulness IMHO.  Forming global macro conclusions by those who understand it better than the average institution, now there maybe longer term credit in that.


----------



## treefrog (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

:topic but relevant to current posts

appologies to the original author who's name has dropped from my file.



> The Mars System - And Why It Wins
> Back in the late 1960s I was a young commodity broker at E.
> F. Hutton and Company. Our office was a brand new high-tech
> office (for its time) which was considered the "flagship
> ...


----------



## stoner (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some interesting Elliott Wave Theory patterns in progress intraday OWG and other wavers.

Really looks like it's out of the textbooks I have reading, and hopefully these patterns will continue subdividing upward in the days ahead.  The key date was 30th October and the low came in one day earelier than expected. Let's see if this pattern continues to surprise the bears, if anything for at leats the next week.




All the best

STONER


----------



## Whiskers (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Haven't marked EW on the hourly but those who can will see.

Getting up against the top of the bollinger and stochastic.

Another rise in base and precious metals is needed to keep her going though I think.


----------



## treefrog (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Some interesting Elliott Wave Theory patterns in progress intraday OWG and other wavers.
> Let's see if this pattern continues to surprise the bears, if anything for at leats the next week.
> All the best
> STONER




this bear won't be surprised - *day* charts threatening to break from wedgie along with momentum break so will be expecting more than an intraday trade if it confirms


----------



## OzWaveGuy (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Some interesting Elliott Wave Theory patterns in progress intraday OWG and other wavers.




Stoner, the current upward thrust appears to be dying. The thrust into the early afternoon looks like a ending diagonal. I suspect the zig-zag 5-3-5 correction is now complete. In addition, 5 small waves down + an a-b-c correction look complete. The index should turn down from here in the next corrective phase (but not to new lows). Looking for a shorting entry (with a close stop)


----------



## stoner (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Stoner, the current upward thrust appears to be dying. The thrust into the early afternoon looks like a ending diagonal. I suspect the zig-zag 5-3-5 correction is now complete. In addition, 5 small waves down + an a-b-c correction look complete. The index should turn down from here in the next corrective phase (but not to new lows). Looking for a shorting entry (with a close stop)




Let’s see what “time” brings OWG.  I suspect something else might be brewing here, and the rally will persist for longer than expected.  Today possibly had the hallmarks of a developing 3rd wave of minor degree, but we will know soon if that is right or wrong.

The low in the SP500 and DJIA on 10th October ended a major cycle, as such I will hang onto my longs for a few more days possibly even another week

All the best

STONER


----------



## OzWaveGuy (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Let’s see what “time” brings OWG.  I suspect something else might be brewing here




I still believe there needs to be a leg down, whether we see more upside tomorrow is another story. Never found a suitable entry to short today, but 5 waves up now look completed at end of trade today. Hourly indicators look oversold or have bearish divergence.

Here's yesterday's chart of what I think is occurring. We were close to 4000 today, so a leg down would be the preferred next step...


----------



## MRC & Co (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Personally, and this is just a feeling based on viewing supply and demand intraday all day, but only in the SPI.

I think someone has been capping the SPI for quite some time now, institutions needing to bail out of positions.  It was happening again today, but some global indices are showing some strength and some bigger players came out to show they wanted in as the day progressed.  Still a bit shaky, but positive signs no doubt.  

Short-term bottom?  I think so.


----------



## Kauri (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

capping, corking, decanting, point scoring.. whatever... I seem to find it more benificial to my account to just quietly trade away... or maybe that should be fade away...   

 Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## MRC & Co (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yep agreed, all my trading is done intraday these days, so whatever will be will be.  As long as volatility remains high for years to come.  

But I must admit, I don't like to see new lows being pushed for by traders (or perhaps even just one trader), with no institutions there to defend it.  It is brutal to watch (and take part in).


----------



## stoner (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> I still believe there needs to be a leg down, whether we see more upside tomorrow is another story. Never found a suitable entry to short today, but 5 waves up now look completed at end of trade today. Hourly indicators look oversold or have bearish divergence.
> 
> Here's yesterday's chart of what I think is occurring. We were close to 4000 today, so a leg down would be the preferred next step...




Thanks for your analysis and opinion there OWG. Your count seems quite plausible and I will certainly take it on board and consider whilst this trade progresses.

Do you use Elliott Waves in isolation or do you use other indicators/methods to help you quantify them?

Given that there are quite a few scenarios possible, I try not to rely 100% on Elliott waves namely because I am not yet that experienced, but also I think it’s important to have a number of good methods that compliment each other in the tool box.

When I have used Elliott in isolation previously, I found that some of my trades would fall over due to the number of possibilities out there.  After combining with other analysis, I found this a major improvement in terms of distinguishing which was the best count I should be working with. That way I could dispense with a lot of the alternates.

Another attribute that has helped me is that I have developed a mindset that does not assume the market *has* to always unfold in terms of Elliott Waves(even though it probably is, it’s difficult to see sometimes). That way I only focus on easily distinguishable patterns and forget the rest.

All the best 

STONER


----------



## MRC & Co (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> After combining with other analysis, I found this a major improvement in terms of distinguishing which was the best count I should be working with. That way I could dispense with a lot of the alternates.





What other methods do you combine with EW to experience major improvements?


----------



## tech/a (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*$20 shoes*

Spot on.

*MRC & co*

For me its VSA.
Wait for Elliott to signal a possible beginning or end of a move(Wait for the trade to come to me) and then use VSA to confirm and to set entry and or exits.

*Oz and stoner*
Some good discussion.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Do you use Elliott Waves in isolation or do you use other indicators/methods to help you quantify them?
> 
> Given that there are quite a few scenarios possible, I try not to rely 100% on Elliott waves




Really good question. I use Elliott to understand possible Market action over a period of time (depending on the degree I want to trade into). I always like to get an idea of the most reasonable or common possibilities that could occur with elliott. Using RSI, MACD divergences, trendline breaks for trade setups which help confirm waves and impending market change. 

For the short term stuff I'm finding the 60/15/5min charts pretty good  - as waves can be hidden if the timeframe is too large.

Fibonacci is also good at predicting where waves could start/finish, but not a guarantee. For example today's leg up finished exactly on 38% retracement of the b wave down on the chart  I put up earlier - so I'm looking for a direction change tomorrow. 

There are other indicators i'll use from time to time Double inside days, stochastics and a few others depending how i'm feeling

Wave C's and wave 3's are good to trade as they usually have great price movements, sometimes wave 5's after wave 4 triangles.

I don't like taking a hit on bad trades, as it means the analysis was all wrong - so i'll get out reasonably quickly.

I also like the really long term outlook as well, as it give prior warning to impending 'disasters' - hence all investments were turned to cash a little over 18months ago, probably a little early, but the XAO wave structure wasn't all that clear. 

Anyone else want to share?


----------



## chops_a_must (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> I also like the really long term outlook as well, as it give prior warning to impending 'disasters' - hence all investments were turned to cash a little over 18months ago, probably a little early, but the XAO wave structure wasn't all that clear.



Funny that.

I could have sworn you were short gold from about 700 and oil from about 80.


----------



## shaunQ (30 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ok, so commodities are up tonight, the US GDP released tonight of -.3% and US unemployment around the expected level, it seems good. Hopefully another increase in the DOW. 

Up and up tomorrow? or up and down, down, down?


----------



## stoner (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

MRC

I am not going to delve into this just now. FWIW IT has nothing to do with Fundamental Analysis or announcements, therefore would be of no interest to you.

Chops are must

What’s the point you trying to make? This is the XAO Analysis thread isn’t it?

STONER


----------



## chops_a_must (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Chops are must
> 
> What’s the point you trying to make? This is the XAO Analysis thread isn’t it?
> 
> STONER



More one for Kennas. 

I'm liking your style Stoner.


----------



## stoner (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey OWG,  been digesting your chart this morning. Once again thankyou
Been also looking at the SP500 in terns of Elliott Waves and so far this is what I make of it:
The rally over 2 days has a five wave pattern UP with one wave DOWN at the end of trading, which leads to three options: 
1.	the c wave of the triangle is not yet over - three of the five waves up were wave (a), the final two waves up (which broke down then up) plus the wave down were (b) or the start of (b), and we should have a final (c) wave UP when wave (b) ends 
2.	this c wave is breaking as a 5, and the correction will count as a flat not a triangle (flats go 3 3 5) 
3.	the correction ended on Oct14 and we are in the waves _ - [ii] of wave 5 down, with wave 2 breaking as a flat -- in which case the late day selloff was the start of wave [iii] of 5. 
Which is it?  The market will let us know within a day or so:
1.	the triangle means a higher high that ends BELOW the Oct14 high, and then we drop in wave d and rise in wave e -- call it the mish-mash-through-the-election scenario  
2.	the flat means a higher high that will end ABOVE the Oct14 high, then a drop in wave 5 that goes below the Oct10 intraday low  -- call this the fake out before the drop 
3.	the wave [iii] down means we just drop tomorrow and go below the Oct10 intraday low 

Ofcourse there is also one other option which is the one I have adopted in my own analysis which not totally based on  conventional Elliott wave analysis: bullish!   I see at least another 100 pts in the S&P shortly.  

All the best

STONER_


----------



## Sean K (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> The key date was 30th October and the low came in one day earelier than expected.






stoner said:


> The low in the SP500 and DJIA on 10th October ended a major cycle, as such I will hang onto my longs for a few more days possibly even another week



Stoner, Interesting you mention 10 Oct as the end of a major cycle and yet the market has made further lows and now the key date is 30 Oct.

Where are you getting these dates from?

Must be some sort of Gann, or Fib I assume?

Cheers,
kennas


----------



## MRC & Co (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> MRC
> 
> I am not going to delve into this just now. FWIW IT has nothing to do with Fundamental Analysis or announcements, therefore would be of no interest to you.




Actually, I scalp intraday, everyday.  So it probably would be of interest to me.  I use important levels (fade or breakout), fundamental announcements, false breaks, false breaks of false breaks (of important levels, boxes, triangles), rounding tops, V bottoms, BS (bull **** fake out) rounding tops and flags, legit flags, trade squeezes, order book, HH, HL (basic trend), volume, look at international markets (maily S&P night session and HSI + Aussie cash market), 1 + 5 min charts.  All for SPI trading.


----------



## CamKawa (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Was that the bottom or not I don't know, but it's a fair question. The case against it not being the bottom is the TED spread. It's actually ticked up a bit meaning banks once again are less willing to trust each other and it's at a level way above the norm.


----------



## stoner (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Stoner, Interesting you mention 10 Oct as the end of a major cycle and yet the market has made further lows and now the key date is 30 Oct.
> 
> Where are you getting these dates from?
> 
> ...




You didn't read my posts very carefully kennas did you?

The above mentioned dates were for SP500 not for the Aussie Index.

As for dates, they are derived from both Gann and Fibonacci but also some cycles which are not based on these which I have discovered via trial and error.  I am a fan of Alan Olivers work which incorporates both these.

All the best


STONER


----------



## Sean K (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> You didn't read my posts very carefully kennas did you?



Ah, sorry,

It's just that this comment had a XAO chart attached to it:


stoner said:


> The key date was 30th October and the low came in one day earelier than expected. Let's see if this pattern continues to surprise the bears, if anything for at leats the next week.
> 
> All the best
> 
> STONER




And, I assumed this comment meant that you too were commenting on the XAO.



stoner said:


> Chops are must
> 
> What’s the point you trying to make? This is the XAO Analysis thread isn’t it?
> 
> STONER




Apologies,

kennas


----------



## treefrog (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

bit of bargain hunting amid the smalls today?
 [XAO] 3,915.800 -41.500 *-1%* 
 [XJO] 3,951.500 -49.600 *-1.2%*

and update:
 [XAO] 3,925.500 -31.800 *-0.8%* 
 [XJO] 3,961.400 -39.700 *-1%* 
 ASX 50 [XFL] 4,008.700 -51.800 *-1.3% *


----------



## saiter (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was thought downward wave 3 was over and wave 4 had begun, but it seems as though the market is going back down, even with the Dow heading up over night!
I was going to enter the market today with BHP and WPL as they seem to follow the XAO closely (and they did!), but they both headed down too...


----------



## BBand (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO - direction up, down, or sideways?

Depends on what timeframe you are looking at!!!

Best trades - using confluence between multi timeframes (say 3)

When ALL three time frames are in alignment - bingo, you have a high probability trade!

Trend direction - you can't beat Dow theory

Best indication of a likely move - congestion (low volatility - narrow Bollinger Bands) or a candlestick reversal signal (depending where it appears)
Always wait for confirmation

Entry - no ifs, buts or maybe, price must break some form of support/resistance
Exit - depends on your risk tolerance
usually some prior support / resistance level
could be an indicator signaling a weakening of trend
could be a price range / volume signal
etc, etc

Peter


----------



## stoner (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Ah, sorry,
> 
> It's just that this comment had a XAO chart attached to it:
> 
> ...




Fair enough, I will look for another thread or site  which is more relevant to US markets.

Sorry for posting irrelevant content in this thread


----------



## Sean K (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Fair enough, I will look for another thread or site  which is more relevant to US markets.
> 
> Sorry for posting irrelevant content in this thread



Well, there are a few EW threads, and there are US index threads.

If you are only going to talk EW and US, then logically that's where your posts should be. 

However, some people also think that the XAO correlates to the DJI and S&P, depending on the significance of the move. So your comments may have some relevance here.

I'm sure everyone here would be interested in some well measured commentary on EW and it's application to the S&P no matter what. 

But, being critical about someone for not discussing the XAO in this thread seems quite the paradox. 



Cheers.


----------



## Whiskers (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BBand said:


> Trend direction - you can't beat Dow theory
> 
> Best indication of a likely move - congestion (low volatility - narrow Bollinger Bands) or a *candlestick reversal signal *(depending where it appears)




Wow, what a cue for me to make an entry again. 

DOW Morning Star still in tact supporting notion the bottom is in for the US. The other two I mentioned probably weren't strictly morning stars. 

The XAO hourly chart is looking like it will make 4000 at least.

The USDX recovery started off with a morning star as did the Spot Gold run end with an Evening Star. 

The USD/JPY has a good Morning Star bottom which supports the notion that the USDX is on the way down again.

The AUD/USD has a good Morning Star supporting that notion.

The bottom line... commodities probably bottomed too with big funds just about done with their liquidating assets to meet cash commitments, so all the signs suggesting some cash may come back into our market and keep the XAO going.


----------



## Broadway (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well there's parts of Asia that are feeling a little bullish.

Second day in a row the Kospi has gone 10% limit up.

It must have been feeling like it had some ground to make up..


----------



## stoner (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> But, being critical about someone for not discussing the XAO in this thread seems quite the paradox.
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers.




To be honest I still have no idea *what *the individual in question was discussing.



Please let's just leave it at that

STONER


----------



## tech/a (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Did everyone notice the volume spikes on most ASX 100 stocks on close?


----------



## Lukeyz (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Does that just mean that those buyers are confident of a positive open on monday???


----------



## treefrog (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Lukeyz said:


> Does that just mean that those buyers are confident of a positive open on monday???




it probably does mean the buyers are that way disposed but without a price and volume spike together it probably also means the sellers are conversely disposed to a negative open on monday


----------



## skyQuake (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

End of month rebalancing probably. Could be also because a lot of US hedge funds use Oct31 as end of FY or quarter.


----------



## Boggo (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



saiter said:


> I was thought downward wave 3 was over and wave 4 had begun, but it seems as though the market is going back down, even with the Dow heading up over night!
> I was going to enter the market today with BHP and WPL as they seem to follow the XAO closely (and they did!), but they both headed down too...




Just a minor hesitation on W4, up to 4300 and then down to 3400 is my


----------



## tech/a (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> it probably does mean the buyers are that way disposed but without a price and volume spike together it probably also means the sellers are conversely disposed to a negative open on monday





Oh there was a price spike on most I saw.

Here is a 5 min tick chart of BHP


----------



## saiter (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> Just a minor hesitation on W4, up to 4300 and then down to 3400 is my




Agreed, I guess I just had some newbie panic 

Here's my updated EW analysis. I see the XAO climbing to about 4100 before dropping to ~3500. After waves a, b and c, I think the XAO might be at ~3800. This is assuming that wave 4 is approximately equal to wave 2 and wave 5 is approximately equal to wave 1.
If this is the case, then it looks like there's a small period to make some good gains


----------



## treefrog (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



saiter said:


> Agreed, I guess I just had some newbie panic
> 
> Here's my updated EW analysis. I see the XAO climbing to about 4100 before dropping to ~3500. After waves a, b and c, I think the XAO might be at ~3800. This is assuming that wave 4 is approximately equal to wave 2 and wave 5 is approximately equal to wave 1.
> If this is the case, then it looks like there's a small period to make some good gains



and................., a longer period to make some much better gains...........going short -


----------



## saiter (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Isn't shorting banned? Also, I don't have any shares to short haha, this will be my first entry into the markets.


----------



## MRC & Co (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



saiter said:


> Isn't shorting banned? Also, I don't have any shares to short haha, this will be my first entry into the markets.




ha ha, you don't need shares to short, you borrow them.

But yes, it is banned.


----------



## saiter (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> ha ha, you don't need shares to short, you borrow them.
> 
> But yes, it is banned.




Huh? Can you explain?
Are we still talking about shares or have we moved onto options/futures?


----------



## MRC & Co (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



saiter said:


> Huh? Can you explain?
> Are we still talking about shares or have we moved onto options/futures?




Just shares.  

There are plenty of threads on shorting and how it works.  Don't want to hijack the thread.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In August 2007 and January of this year I posted some charts on the long term action of the xao since 1980.

I'd like to update them and seek comment.

Both charts are line charts and the second is a semilog chart.

In the first chart it is reasonable to expect the xao to come down to either the old trendline from 1982 which would place the xao at 3000  or the newer trendline from 1992 which would place it at 3500   

The second is a semilog and shows some interesting support and resistance lines, a 3500 seems more like a bottom , although 2350 is a distinct possibility.

The first chart by the way shows an obvious wave 3 in ew analysis, so a recovery and further falls to trendlines or support and resistance would not be out of the question.

We are in interesting charting times.

gg


----------



## saiter (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The monthly shows wave 5 stopping at 2700, and I'm guessing the corrective waves are going to take it back up to 3300-3500. Alot of assumptions were made though:

wave 3 = 1.5 x wave 1
wave 4 = wave 2
wave 5 = wave 1




Also, the EW in the daily chart that I posted before is contained in this larger wave 3, and its corrective waves will (IMO) contribute to this larger wave 4. Again, the larger corrective waves will take the XAO back to 3300-3500, which is close to the light green trend line (resistance). I believe that the larger corrective wave B will form meet the dotted purple trend line (support).


----------



## treefrog (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> In August 2007 and January of this year I posted some charts on the long term action of the xao since 1980.
> 
> I'd like to update them and seek comment.
> 
> ...




hi gg

few posts on this around pp 265/266 including update of great Pig's semilog


----------



## korrupt_1 (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hi guys,

Plenty of discussion on EW lately... would be mistaken to think this thread is more of an EW thread than an XAO one... 

What happened to the more traditional TA's like S/R, Trends, Divergence, etc...? are they no good during volatile market conditions like this?


----------



## treefrog (31 October 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> hi guys,
> 
> Plenty of discussion on EW lately... would be mistaken to think this thread is more of an EW thread than an XAO one...
> 
> What happened to the more traditional TA's like S/R, Trends, Divergence, etc...? are they no good during volatile market conditions like this?




same same as always k1 - just not fashionable. EW is in atm - not getting it right mind but that doesn't deter 'em. I think someone said the EW thread is broken


----------



## IFocus (1 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> hi guys,
> 
> Plenty of discussion on EW lately... would be mistaken to think this thread is more of an EW thread than an XAO one...
> 
> What happened to the more traditional TA's like S/R, Trends, Divergence, etc...? are they no good during volatile market conditions like this?




K1 I think that the current moves are fairly close to basic EW formations and while that is reflected in the index movements then people will be drawn to the EW discussion.

As soon as there is a divergence away from basic EW and it becomes more complex as to the outlook which is likely to occur if and when the market travels side ways then you will see a drop of about EW and a rise in its criticism. 

Following on from this point most argument about trading methods usually come from those who have limited knowledge of the method or bias in their thinking that they fail to recognize.

Another trait I often see is a distinct lack of understanding in the very basics of how to deploy a trading method for consistent returns where as most argue the merits of the method its self.


----------



## tech/a (1 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lots of trades are indicating a wave 4 up move occuring now.
If interested I am running some commentary over on Reef on a few current trades.Using Elliot and VSA. Warts and all.


----------



## tcoates (1 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Slightly off topic... but on the EW thing.... 

... think that it also provides readers (not necessarily those with knowledge) with something to grab hold of as where the market will go. It provides a degree of certainty, especially in uncertain times! 

People probably don't care when the market goes up, but when it goes down, the question is how far.  

Functions like EW (which I have only glanced at) and Pivot Points provide a glimpse into the future (til proven otherwise) where as "traditional" tools do not do this.

But here are two charts for the XAO with Pivot Points. (The again, maybe this is traditional.) The chart shows weekly, monthly and quarterly among others.

The first is the action for this week. You can see it bounced up from support and ended at weekly pivot level. But we are still below the monthly support (1) (calculated from the prev. month). Presently can only work from weekly timeframe?




Here is next week and month. We could move up to the monthly pivot and then either move higher or lower. Next month resistance is about 4600. But otherwise the move is lower compared with the current month.




FYI - the quarterly line is NOT projected forward into the next month/quarter.

What is important is how "price" reacts at the Pivot, support and resistance levels.
Tim

PS. The yearly stuff is only there to give me some sort of the reference over the years, otherwise is unnecessary (before you comment)


----------



## Whiskers (1 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Wow, what a cue for me to make an entry again.
> 
> DOW Morning Star still in tact supporting notion the bottom is in for the US. The other two I mentioned probably weren't strictly morning stars.
> 
> ...




Ooops, missprint.

Try again...

According to Morning Star's the JPY looks set to fall against the USD, EUR, GBP and AUD.

The GBP and AUD to rise against the USD and the AUD also rise against the EUR.

So if the 'stars' are anything to go by  the JPY is set for a hiding .

The USD will go lower particularly against the GBP and AUD but maintain strength against the JPY.

From the 'stars' the AUD seems to be going higher against the USD, EUR and JPY, suggesting some money flow back to Aus markets

Of interest particularly for our resource sector, USD Spot Gold fell in EUR and GBP three weeks ago, but started to rise in JPY a few days ago.

'The stars' seem to be suggesting some significant realignment of values has just started to transform with AUS a significant gainer in strength.

All the charts are here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=356581#post356581


----------



## Whiskers (1 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Lots of trades are indicating a wave 4 up move occuring now.
> If interested I am running some commentary over on Reef on a few current trades.Using Elliot and VSA. Warts and all.




Tech/a, would they be exposed to oil and construction maybe in particular?

Can you give us a link to the commentry at 'Reef'?


----------



## skyQuake (1 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And now for some good old fashioned support and resist lvls.

We've been trading inside a channel after 1987 crash. We've broken out of that channel briefly and now come all the way down. My experience with channels is that once they do a false break one way; they will break for real the other way. Recently we've seen the test and bounce around the channel support. (the image isnt too clear but we've gone through the channel support and sorta retested it)
Targets are 0.786 and 1.00 retractment zones.


----------



## MRC & Co (1 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

lol, if it's anything like the SPI, it will probably now break up through that bottom channel, take out all the weak shorts and get headed south again.  Would be pretty consistent with a current short-term low and further lows to be seen down the track.  Not to mention, this is the cash index based on the SPI


----------



## OzWaveGuy (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> And now for some good old fashioned support and resist lvls....




sQ, good and timely post...it's certainly time for a bounce or sideways consolidation....

So we either see a bottom from here - ideal scenario?
Or
We see a break of this trendline after some further sideways consolidation that may last a couple of weeks before a further drop. Then there could be one final revisit or 'kiss' of the trendline acting as resistance before more downside?

Nun - got any views?


----------



## nunthewiser (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> sQ, good and timely post...it's certainly time for a bounce or sideways consolidation....
> 
> So we either see a bottom from here - ideal scenario?
> Or
> ...




personally cannot call a bottom until i see it , i dont think we have seen the overall lows as yet BUT theres a few individual stocks that i reckon have seen them .I think that there is no hurry to be rentering for investment purposes but there sure is some beutiful short term trade ops to be had and will be had . 

re the bounce  we have been in one a couple of days now 

re not posting , it was because of points , seems i have more leeway than i thought.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Funny that.
> 
> I could have sworn you were short gold from about 700 and oil from about 80.




You've raised an interesting point. Robert Prechter discussed a "all the same markets" phenomenon that we have rarely seen before (and I haven't overlayed long term charts to validate).

The "all same markets" phenomenon that we have recently seen is where Gold, Silver, Housing, Stocks, Oil (probably heaps of others) were roughly in sync as far as each were making new highs (or thereabouts) at roughly the same time. This was reported as a rarely seen phenomenon. Now all are in decline including gold. 

From an investor psychology standpoint, this could imply that new money entering the market was trying to find place of considerable growth - oil being the most recent. All have now rolled over - cash will once again be king 

From and EW standpoint - many markets were wrapping up a large wave 5 (except gold)

I hope this isn't too far off topic. :millhouse


----------



## MRC & Co (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> sQ, good and timely post...it's certainly time for a bounce or sideways consolidation....
> 
> So we either see a bottom from here - ideal scenario?
> Or
> We see a break of this trendline after some further sideways consolidation that may last a couple of weeks before a further drop. Then there could be one final revisit or 'kiss' of the trendline acting as resistance before more downside?




I think SQ was saying though it's not clear, we have already seen a break of the bottom support line of the trend channel, followed by a retest (resistance).  

I agree with SQ, in that most trendlines (and technical patterns for that matter), are BS breakouts (false breaks), before price then goes on to breakout the other way.  It's how most markets trade IMO and definately so in the SPI.  Which would mean in all probability, a retest of that 'resistance', will actually be broken, before it will then come back down, which would show confluence with most other forms of analysis showing a short-term bottom for now but further downside to come.  However, this method would only show a test up through that resistance, meaning this rally will be short-lived, just enough to get weak shorts out and for some to start to become bullish again, which is what we are now seeing in this thread 

Very short-term long trades only IMO.  

No waves in that, just a genuine depiction of how price actually moves in reality (only a probability of course).


----------



## Sean K (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> If interested I am running some commentary over on Reef on a few current trades.Using Elliot and VSA. Warts and all.



Unfortunately not a member of Reef, so I miss out.


----------



## MRC & Co (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> The "all same markets" phenomenon that we have recently seen is where Gold, Silver, Housing, Stocks, Oil (probably heaps of others) were roughly in sync as far as each were making new highs (or thereabouts) at roughly the same time. This was reported as a rarely seen phenomenon. Now all are in decline including gold.




Gold and oil were hardly making new highs at the same time as stocks (or thereabouts).

How were you going to trade that correlation with any sort of decent application?


----------



## tech/a (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Unfortunately not a member of Reef, so I miss out.




Just takes too much time to post the analysis on 2 forums.
Its really for those who are interested in my use of VSA and Elliott combined.
Quite a few have asked for more indepth explaination there so thats where I went--not pushing the site just informing.

Back to the XAO.
I'm noticing a great number of stocks in completion of wave 3s.
I saw this at the time of the top back last year many many were in wave 5 of 5 completions. The market cant really do much else that capitulate which it did.
In this case its come to a point of oversold and needs to take a breather.
Wave 4s are often the length of wave 2s and that being the case this wave 4 isnt likely to extend much past 4500 ish (On the weekly XAO chart)
The daily is currently showing the end of a wave 5,I expect this to extend at sometime to 3200 ish.


----------



## Sean K (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Just takes too much time to post the analysis on 2 forums.



I tried to join that forum once but they rejected my email address for some reason.



Not good enough....


----------



## skyQuake (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> sQ, good and timely post...it's certainly time for a bounce or sideways consolidation....
> 
> So we either see a bottom from here - ideal scenario?
> Or
> ...




I see sideways/up consolidation, kissing the trendline and a break above (probably after some huge day in the US) before finally falling down again.
(Which kind of fits with this rally as wave 4, and final decline wave 5... well since everyone is agreed on how this is gonna play out its probably gonna do the opposite)

And as MRC & Co said, maybe I've been spooked too much by the SPI, maybe its just a nice clean channel bounce and back to the glory days : (asif)


----------



## MRC & Co (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> And as MRC & Co said, maybe I've been spooked too much by the SPI, maybe its just a nice clean channel bounce and back to the glory days : (asif)






Didn't you say the bottom of the channel on that chart had already been broken and we are now testing it again (if so, I think we will false break through it and fall back, which does suit the EW analysis)?  I don't think we are going back to the glory days, though it would be nice to see for the super holders.


----------



## skyQuake (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Didn't you say the bottom of the channel on that chart had already been broken and we are now testing it again (if so, I think we will false break through it and fall back, which does suit the EW analysis)?  I don't think we are going back to the glory days, though it would be nice to see for the super holders.




Depends on how you draw the trendlines... Its practically off by 2 pixels in the weekly...
I do think we'll _eventually_ go back to the glory days, 5? 10? 20 years? Who knows, but we'll get there eventually : D


----------



## Pairs Trader (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bring on a Santa Clause Rally!


----------



## MRC & Co (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Pairs Trader said:


> Bring on a Santa Clause Rally!




Yep, that is another thing.  From memory, middle of November through start of January are generally by a LONG SHOT, the most bullish periods throughout stockmarket history.

Long-term, as in 10+ years, I'm still not sure.  Growth of Chindia etc could cause a big problem of stagflation due to inflating commodity prices for debt ridden Western society, which will then affect those economies.  A real paradigm shift.  

Wouldn't like to be investing as such, much of my portfolio, anytime soon!


----------



## stoner (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Robert Prechter discussed a "all the same markets" phenomenon that we have rarely seen before (and I haven't overlayed long term charts to validate).
> 
> The "all same markets" phenomenon that we have recently seen is where Gold, Silver, Housing, Stocks, Oil (probably heaps of others) were roughly in sync as far as each were making new highs (or thereabouts) at roughly the same time. This was reported as a rarely seen phenomenon. Now all are in decline including gold.



I totally agree with OWG’s comments here regarding the “All the Same Market” phenomenon.

Since 2003 due to the infusion of credit more dollars have been looking for a home. This  fueled the rise and mania of many markets world wide. That is quite obvious.

MRC, sure various markets like Gold and Oil have been slightly out of sync with the rest (approximately 4-6 months). But over the slightly longer term horizon, many markets have been moving up and Gold and Oil started down within some months of each other.

I also find it amusing that 6-8 months ago, the consensus in this forum and just about everywhere else was that “The Dollar was Doomed”. How ironic that this year, the best performer has been the US Dollar. What do the precious metal bulls have to say now?

How many forecast services called 2008 the “The Year of Financial Flameout” in late 2007? I only know of one. 

All the best

STONER


----------



## MRC & Co (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

8 months?  Aren't you new?

How are you going to trade that though Stoner?  Long stocks, then at the high, quickly switch and go long oil, then go long USD once the oil rally is finished, did you time that?  

You have to know what correlates NOW, to have any chance of catching corresponding moves.  Correlations change intraday many times, let alone over a period of months.


----------



## stoner (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> 8 months?  Aren't you new?
> 
> How are you going to trade that though Stoner?  Long stocks, then at the high, quickly switch and go long oil, then go long USD once the oil rally is finished, did you time that?
> 
> You have to know what correlates NOW, to have any chance of catching corresponding moves.  Correlations change intraday many times, let alone over a period of months.




Yes I am new, but I *can* also read.  You display much angst MRC, what's your problem anyways?

As for the trading. Well I didn't, apart for  an oil short on STO with put options in October. The word *approximate* was mentioned. I had no idea what was going to happen on what day just like you and everybody else. But the obsevation re "All The Same Market" which was OWG's point is very valid, and there is no denying that.

STONER


----------



## MRC & Co (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Yes I am new, but I *can* also read.  You display much angst MRC, what's your problem anyways?




Something fishy is going on, if you get my drift.   

IMO, correlations are best used intraday, when you can spread or catch movements when one instrument deviates.  

I am not denying anything, but it's kind of pointless to trade, and there is no denying that.

As for the precious metal bulls, wrong thread.  I'm not one of them at the moment.


----------



## chops_a_must (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> I totally agree with OWG’s comments here regarding the “All the Same Market” phenomenon.



That'd be a first.

Wavepicker agreeing with anyone, including himself.




stoner said:


> I also find it amusing that 6-8 months ago,



Yes, I also find that amusing. 





stoner said:


> the consensus in this forum and just about everywhere else was that “The Dollar was Doomed”. How ironic that this year, the best performer has been the US Dollar. What do the precious metal bulls have to say now?



Yes, how ironic.

But I'm sure you didn't lose your shirt at all shorting gold on the breakout at about 700... or continually going long USD for the last 2 and a half years.



stoner said:


> How many forecast services called 2008 the “The Year of Financial Flameout” in late 2007? I only know of one.
> 
> All the best
> 
> STONER



Who cares?

I only know of one person who had a premonition that oompa loompas tripping balls on lsd, in conjunction with the pussy gnomes stealing home mortgages in phase 2, were going to bring down the world economy.

Perhaps you should start another service: "A Million and One Ways to Continually Start and Lose E-Pissing Contests".


----------



## stoner (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Something fishy is going on, if you get my drift.
> 
> IMO, correlations are best used intraday, when you can spread or catch movements when one instrument deviates.
> 
> I am not denying anything, but it's kind of pointless to trade, and there is no denying that.




Sorry, don't get your drift pal. 

The whole point was about trading it was it? It was about the this phenomenon, "All the Same Market" which was an expression that Robert Prechter used to described the market activity of the last 3-4 years.

Apart from my STO options trade, the only other trade I had going was in buying USD some years ago. I had to wait a while to not only regain my losses but actually pull in a profit but happy now.

STONER


----------



## stoner (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> I only know of one person who had a premonition that oompa loompas tripping balls on lsd, in conjunction with the pussy gnomes stealing home mortgages in phase 2, were going to bring down the world economy.
> 
> Perhaps you should start another service: "A Million and One Ways to Continually Lose E-Pissing contests".




?????


----------



## MRC & Co (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



stoner said:


> Sorry, don't get your drift pal.
> 
> The whole point was about trading it was it? It was about the this phenomenon, "All the Same Market" which was an expression that Robert Prechter used to described the market activity of the last 3-4 years.
> 
> ...




Sorry, just a disappearance of two famed wavers and reappearance of two more with similar styles, anyways back to the topic.  

Anyways, good work with the USD trade.  I just relate everything to how you could profit from it, don't see much point otherwise, that's what this game is about, what works and how do you apply it, otherwise I would just be an analyst as opposed to a trader.  But yes, a valid observation, interesting 'flight to quality' to say the least.  

Cheers


----------



## OzWaveGuy (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> How were you going to trade that correlation with any sort of decent application?




MRC - Why would I care? I was simply highlighting a 'factoid'. Same goes for Contrarian indicators, they can all propose a top/bottom is in place, but you wouldn't day trade against any of it as it all depends on your investment/trading style(s)

The people that should be taking notes on the longer term factors are those that would/are being seriously impacted by the current decline. Unfortunately it's ~90% of investors out there.


----------



## MRC & Co (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> MRC - Why would I care?




See above comment.  

Cheers


----------



## treefrog (2 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Thanks for that MRC
> 
> lol... yeah, I like to trade off my 'stars' signs even quite literally... the cycles of things.
> 
> Big 'coincidence' that so many have lined up atm... but I don't believe in coincidences.




one day you might actually find a real morning star pattern whiskers and alas, no-one will take any notice at all: hmmmmmm come to think of it. Anyway, sorry about the whack on your head, hope you are seeing less stars after the rest over the weekend.
TCL chart shows a morning star pattern: although not a particularly strong one. 
as for the DOW, there hasn't been one there of late at all: -  refer to EOD chart candles of DOW - you seem to be using something other than NYSE EOD candles whiskers.
And also take care jumping onto forex charts, the ones you have posted do not appear to be US EOD, (where most of the financial muscle is usually assumed to be). Forex charts have three or more EOD closes depending on which charts you use - asia, GMT (europe) and US.
EOD on one does not necessarilly reflect the others - particularly for candle patterns - US close posted here.

note: I am not saying the candle formations you refer to as morning stars do not indicate bullish tendancies - just that they are not morning stars for the following reasons:
pink - no gap down and negated by immediate failure and subsequent lower low
blue - no gap down (bullish indications though)
yellow (on US$v JPY) - yes/no/unclear? but the reversal flag on one hr was there regardless of EOD charts used - don't come any more classic or easy money from an exhaustion break than that - daily momentum still down (ie JPY strengthening against US$ for mine though)


----------



## Whiskers (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> stoner said:
> 
> 
> > chops_a_must said:
> ...




Quite so... one has to wonder what some of these guys are on with their somewhat incongruous language and mood at times.

Seriously, are you on drugs, Chops... lsd or something?


----------



## Whiskers (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> TCL chart shows a morning star pattern: although not a particularly strong one.




From 28/6/07! 



> ...as for the DOW, there hasn't been one there of late at all: -  refer to EOD chart candles of DOW - you seem to be using something other than NYSE EOD candles whiskers.
> 
> ...- just that they are not morning stars for the following reasons:
> pink - no gap down and negated by immediate failure and subsequent lower low
> blue - no gap down (bullish indications though)




That chart with pink and blue is NOT the Dow Jones Industrials Average.

The DOW... your bottom chart labeled INDU, clearly shows a morning star whith a tail to the low which has not yet been breeched lower.



> yellow (on US$v JPY) - yes/no/unclear? but the reversal flag on one hr was there regardless of EOD charts used - don't come any more classic or easy money from an exhaustion break than that - daily momentum still down (ie JPY strengthening against US$ for mine though)




Are you sure? ... what with Morning Stars with the USD, EUR, GBP and AUD against the JPY (on my charts)... I'll take a wager on that.



> And also take care jumping onto forex charts, the ones you have posted do not appear to be US EOD, (where most of the financial muscle is usually assumed to be). Forex charts have three or more EOD closes depending on which charts you use - asia, GMT (europe) and US.
> EOD on one does not necessarilly reflect the others - particularly for candle patterns - US close posted here.




I believe these spot gold, forex charts I posted refer to live quotes on a 24 hour global OED period... not percular to any one exchange or futures contract etc and are probably more reliable on a world wide trend basis.

I have found and discussed previously, spot quote differences between the LGE and NYMEX/COMEX for example. I suppose it gets down to which source you think is more reliable in the big picture.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Re the morning star discussion. Whiskers, when you see em' post em in the forum, always keen to see how they correlate to other analysis that myself or others use.


----------



## Sean K (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Aus 200 cash mini critial support around 3900 ish looks to have held also around break up point from downtrend line over the past few weeks.

Next hurdle around 4300.

Not sure how that equates to the XAO....


----------



## Whiskers (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Re the morning star discussion. Whiskers, when you see em' post em in the forum, always keen to see how they correlate to other analysis that myself or others use.




Will do OzWaveGuy.

I've traded off Evening Stars in individual stocks and spot gold perfectly, not so many Morning Stars, so curious to see how well a heap of them that are appearing now transpire out, but haven't done a lot of work until recently with them on indicies.


----------



## treefrog (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> From 28/6/07!
> 
> The DOW... your bottom chart labeled INDU, clearly shows a morning star whith a tail to the low which has not yet been breeched lower.




whiskers,
ever looked up into the sky on a clear night? A lot of the stars you think you see are no longer there - its just their light still travelling to earth.

The fact there is no gap down to open on the second candle means no morning star either. Sorry, but if you are going to cite candle nonsense at least get it right.


----------



## Whiskers (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> whiskers,
> ever looked up into the sky on a clear night? A lot of the stars you think you see are no longer there - its just their light still travelling to earth.
> 
> The fact there is no gap down to open on the second candle means no morning star either. Sorry, but if you are going to cite candle nonsense at least get it right.




Wow, you really are in a bad mood aren't you treefrog.

Firstly, may I suggest you get it right before bad-mouthing others.

As I said your purple and blue chart was not the DOW.

Your other chart labled 'INDU' clearly had the 'low' tail that has not been breeched yet, despite your assertion that it had.

If your chart doesn't have a gap down, maybe you should check your data.

This image is from the Big Charts web site... not my data. So if you're saying my data is wrong you're saying BigCharts and maybe others are wrong.

Incredible Charts has a gap down and the long tail, but for some reason a different, (longer) third candle... but none-the-less a morning star.


----------



## Whiskers (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> whiskers,
> ever looked up into the sky on a clear night? A lot of the stars you think you see are no longer there - its just their light still travelling to earth.
> 
> *The fact there is no gap down to open on the second candle *means no morning star either. Sorry, but if you are going to cite candle nonsense at least get it right.




Excuse me folks, for dwelling on this off topic issue, but there has been a lot of insults and abuse by some who throw plenty of mud (untruths) which unfortunately sometimes sticks and should be stamped out.

I do believe you didn't even bother to check treefrog. 

Take note of the opening and closing prices underlined in blue.

Another apology won't go astray.


----------



## treefrog (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Wow, you really are in a bad mood aren't you treefrog.
> Firstly, may I suggest you get it right before bad-mouthing others.
> As I said your purple and blue chart was not the DOW...




oh dear - never said it was - I used that as an example of different data = different formations - I posted the dow and clearly referenced it as the dow



> Your other chart labled 'INDU' clearly had the 'low' tail that has not been breeched yet, despite your assertion that it had....




I made no reference to the tail at all but that your "morning star" pattern had failed. It has failed because of the subsequent price action sideways including an EOD lower low - I have always been referring to EOD not intraday levels - can't be sure what you are referring to though as you seem to have a penchant for misquoting/misrepresenting.



> If your chart doesn't have a gap down, maybe you should check your data.
> This image is from the Big Charts web site... not my data. So if you're saying my data is wrong you're saying BigCharts and maybe others are wrong.
> Incredible Charts has a gap down and the long tail, but for some reason a different, (longer) third candle... but none-the-less a morning star.




Ah! the penny has dropped has it (one can hope): yes there are varying timeframes and even data on the same timeframe and not everyone sees the same OHLC you see. Indeed if you ever start trading it is paramount to ensure that charts and quoted prices are in synch.(the same value at the same time).

Yes, the *bigcharts* pattern is a genuine morning star: (earlier post of research data shows the success rate is 50/50 at best). Add to that, as we have just established, that not everyone gets one when you do: the result is there to see on your bigchart - another claytons morning star failure.


----------



## $20shoes (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



			
				Yes said:
			
		

> bigcharts[/B] pattern is a genuine morning star: (earlier post of research data shows the success rate is 50/50 at best). Add to that, as we have just established, that not everyone gets one when you do: the result is there to see on your bigchart - another claytons morning star failure.




I won't specifically weigh into this discussion, but some food for thought...If I have a candle pattern that has a 50/50 success rate, can I simply use this as the basis of a trading strategy?? If I could use this pattern as a simple enabler to trade, and I get me 40-50% winners ( because this formation has a 50% strike rate), then that's a good thing for a possible strategy. 

_Wait for a morning Star...depending on risk, wait for a test...go long on Highest High value in "n" days(??) and manage the trade.  _

One other point to mention is this 50% reliability. What does this mean if you break it down ??

How reliable is the signal if there is a lower low immediately to my left?; or how reliable is it,  if the candle pattern forms above a 50 day MA? Or between a 50 and 200 day MA, or when price action is below a 200 day MA???

Knowing your craft's tools and indeed how potent they are in certain climes, and in certain markets is important. Do you guys ever notice that certain patterns seem to just work across many equities, and then become less potent as the market changes, or sentiment changes?? I guess, what works one day may not work the next. 

Whiskers/Treefrog, carry on....


----------



## MRC & Co (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> One other point to mention is this 50% reliability. What does this mean if you break it down ??
> 
> I guess, what works one day may not work the next.




And what works at open, in the morning, at lunch, afternoon and close completely changes too, intraday.

Not to mention, what is 50% reliability?  The wider the stop you give it, the greater reliability.  It's why it's such an art and why it's vital to know your edge.  Mine personally, is always trying to gain a slight edge in both win % and average win to average loss, make 200+ trades a day, and it's pretty reliable day to day, so far.  

IMHO


----------



## $20shoes (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> And what works at open, in the morning, at lunch, afternoon and close completely changes too, intraday.
> 
> Not to mention, what is 50% reliability?  The wider the stop you give it, the greater reliability.  It's why it's such an art and why it's vital to know your edge.  Mine personally, is always trying to gain a slight edge in both win % and average win to average loss, make 200+ trades a day, and it's pretty reliable day to day, so far.
> 
> IMHO




All good points MRC!! And it's an art I'm still learning.


----------



## MRC & Co (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> All good points MRC!! And it's an art I'm still learning.




lol, aren't we all!


----------



## jonojpsg (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> And what works at open, in the morning, at lunch, afternoon and close completely changes too, intraday.
> 
> Not to mention, what is 50% reliability?  The wider the stop you give it, the greater reliability.  It's why it's such an art and why it's vital to know your edge.  Mine personally, is always trying to gain a slight edge in both win % and average win to average loss, *make 200+ trades a day*, and it's pretty reliable day to day, so far.
> 
> IMHO




Are you serious???!!!  200+ trades a day - that's impressive MRC.  Even if you are spending 12 hours a day trading that's still one every 3.5 minutes!  Do you have software to trade for you?  How do you manage that many trades?


----------



## MRC & Co (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jonojpsg said:


> Are you serious???!!!  200+ trades a day - that's impressive MRC.  Even if you are spending 12 hours a day trading that's still one every 3.5 minutes!  Do you have software to trade for you?  How do you manage that many trades?




Hey mate,

It's all done manually.  Manage it myself, no stops, just manual exits.  Just scalping the SPI only and the majority is done in the first hour and last hour of trading.  Same method as TH, just intraday scalping (that being said, I don't have much risk tolerance, so my stops are tight and hence, I am literally scalping 1-5 ticks at a time most of the day, except for big momentum moves), hence the large number of trades.  

But just as TH says, with that many trades, if you have a slight edge on a highly leveraged instrument (futures), you end up being able to be consistent (over a couple hundred trades your edge will generally come out) and just 100 ticks is still a couple grand a day after brokerage.  

By no means an expert yet though.  But good money off scalping can be a pretty rapid learning curve and implementation.

Cheers


----------



## Nyden (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I must admit ... I am quite shocked by today's performance. With so much negative news out and about - I'm surprised such a strong rally managed to manifest.

I must say it certainly feels as if there isn't as much fear at this moment, but this only stands to reinforce the volatility of these markets - so I shall still sit along the sidelines.

I did have a dream that the bottom was in though, so all in fellas! I jest


----------



## MRC & Co (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> I must say it certainly feels as if there isn't as much fear at this moment, but this only stands to reinforce the volatility of these markets - so I shall still sit along the sidelines.




Yeh, it felt a couple days ago, the big sellers had done most of their business and bailed out of most long positions.  Then again, this may just be them trying to position themselves to get higher prices, would make sense, it's how the big boys play.  Short-term longs still looking good though.  

IR announcement tomorrow, interesting times.

What are you looking to do Nyden, find a point at which you can invest for the longer-term and feel safe?


----------



## nunthewiser (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Calls tommorow as being the top height of the current rally, intrest rate cuts should be mainly factored in but dare say will caudse a small flurry if not a nice lil spike , BUT then we heading for employment data amongst others , personally think a few cheaper trade entrys available after tommorow .

prolly wrong , pay no heed just voicing aloud my thoughts on how im looking at it and will trade accordingly ,  oh plus i looked at my magic chart thingo and it told me the same 

no waves about it


----------



## MRC & Co (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Haven't looked, but what cut is factored in tomorrow, no change?


----------



## M34N (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Haven't looked, but what cut is factored in tomorrow, no change?




You serious?  50 basis points if not 

I personally feel this rally could go a bit longer, there's a LOT of money on the sidelines, and judging by that very large spike of around 60 points in the last 10 minutes of trade, then we could see it trend higher for the short term. There's been so much doom and gloom in the past few months that a rally in the short term, IMO, is inevitable. We've hardly had a good rally for more than a couple days since I think maybe March?

Speaking of which, did people notice those massive buy orders coming in for BHP in that last 10 mins? I noticed when I casually glanced at it, there was a few orders in there for 100,000 shares +, that's some very strong buying there. Noticed similar for MQG, RIO and a couple others. Big boys must be taking some long positions before the rate cuts and the US election results?

Either way, the long term trend is still down, and I dare say after Christmas, we should be trending back down again.


----------



## nunthewiser (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Haven't looked, but what cut is factored in tomorrow, no change?




from what i hear in the convent ppl expecting 50 ......... hey in my post im not saying im gunna be right , just voicing what i THINK will happen .


----------



## MRC & Co (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> You serious?  50 basis points if not




Yep, serious 

So you are saying a 50bp cut is factored in for tomorrow?

I thought I heard it said the way this works, is a 50bp cut is factored in by sometime in November, which means it could come this month or next.......

Really should check up closer on this, but will find out tomorrow for sure anyways.  

Was a very strong auction today hey!  Looks good.


----------



## nunthewiser (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

also my comments are not meaning rejoining the overall downtrend , just saying iam expecting a half decent pullback from  latest rally which should continue tomorow but tommorow being the top before the pullback.geez m8 its hard explaining what i mean , refer to my original post and just say you were wrong if i am , .........


----------



## M34N (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Yep, serious
> 
> So you are saying a 50bp cut is factored in for tomorrow?
> 
> I thought I heard it said the way this works, is a 50bp cut is factored in by sometime in November, which means it could come this month or next.......




Yeah it's definitely 50 basis points factored in for tomorrow.



nunthewiser said:


> also my comments are not meaning rejoining the overall downtrend , just saying iam expecting a half decent pullback from  latest rally which should continue tomorow but tommorow being the top before the pullback.geez m8 its hard explaining what i mean , refer to my original post and just say you were wrong if i am , .........




I agree nun, as much as I want the market to go up finally after so many down days, I don't think we will just pick up and move on from here. Too much damage has been done, and too many long-term investors have been burnt and will take time for them to re-enter.


----------



## saiter (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Awesome! If we keep getting these rallies then this will push wave 4 upwards, meaning that wave 5 will have a better chance of ending above 4000. Lets hope that the DOW ends up in the green tomorrow.


----------



## Nyden (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> What are you looking to do Nyden, find a point at which you can invest for the longer-term and feel safe?




Yes, the sleepless nights of 10% +/- index movements just aren't for me I'm afraid  I'm waiting for volatility to subside if anything. Slow steady gains based on improving conditions ... not speculation on what may be 2 days from now.


----------



## dhukka (3 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Haven't looked, but what cut is factored in tomorrow, no change?




SFE futures factoring 100% chance of 50bps cut with an 80% chance of 75bps.


----------



## gav (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Today I predict that the RBA cut interest rates by a further 100 points (not 50 like some suggest).  Maybe a few big buyers yesterday afternoon predict this also, and are looking to make quick buck...


----------



## CamKawa (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gav said:


> Today I predict that the RBA cut interest rates by a further 100 points (not 50 like some suggest). Maybe a few big buyers yesterday afternoon predict this also, and are looking to make quick buck...



I’ve got a feeling it may be a case of buy on the rumour sell on the news.


----------



## saiter (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well it looks like we're into the downwards wave 5 now  The XAO is already down 63.9 points.
I see this going for another 3-4 weeks.


----------



## wildthing (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Only a possibility...but I think we may see a retracement to test 3968...make a higher low and go on up till after xmas......then wave 5 down!
Maybe wishful thinking and only time will tell.
Cheers


----------



## MRC & Co (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



saiter said:


> Well it looks like we're into the downwards wave 5 now  The XAO is already down 63.9 points.
> I see this going for another 3-4 weeks.




lol, that wave wouldn't have been too fun to surf, already above open!  Lot can change in the afternoon, so calling based on morning session is way too early.

Good luck in the Cup today everyone and hopefully a 100bps cut!    Cheers.


----------



## treefrog (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> I won't specifically weigh into this discussion, but some food for thought...If I have a candle pattern that has a 50/50 success rate, can I simply use this as the basis of a trading strategy?? If I could use this pattern as a simple enabler to trade, and I get me 40-50% winners ( because this formation has a 50% strike rate), then that's a good thing for a possible strategy.




spot on $20
considering all the accepted conditions for a valid morning star:
1) downtrend
2) bear candle
3) gap down 
4) gap up (preferred) to > halfway up body of 2)
and the researched reliability of this delivering a subsequent bull candle about 50/50 is quite good if you are trying to pick bottoms (always a risk of a bad smell if you are into that mind)
It is good because the prior trend had to be down which in itself indicates continued down, so achieving a 50% success in that environment is a potential edge which is good.
My arguement is with the bulls whose promote the "MS! MS! Its a cert to go up from here!" nonsense. 
I also have an issue with the MS =trend reversal nonsense.
If a MS proves to be successful (market rises directly following), it does not mean a trend reversal.
The subsequent UP may even break the current downtrend but that also does not mean a trend reversal.
The most fundamental (?) requirement of T/A is that a downtrend has lower lows and lower highs. An uptrend needs higher lows and higher highs.
So to talk trend reversals based on a genuine and obvious MS is quite wrong: at best a low forms for a possible subsequent higher low but it is impossible to know this until the rest of the uptrend conditions have been confirmed.
Of couse there are a number of other "potential bottom" patterns that give similar 50/50 prospects to the MS as per that research.


----------



## Whiskers (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, fwiw... the NAB has put in a pretty good looking Morning Star and the ANZ a string of three, the first probably OK, second not so good and third, best shape but on a minor low... but maybe qualifies anyway.

If we are to assume stability in the financial sector is the key to the market improving, then these two must be a reasonable sign, eh?

Btw, all the other Morning Stars that I pointed out, some three weeks old, are still tracking upwards. Re the AUD/EUR, it's morning Star is confirmed with an evening Star on the EUR/AUD.


----------



## $20shoes (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> spot on $20
> considering all the accepted conditions for a valid morning star:
> 1) downtrend
> 2) bear candle
> ...




They are all good points Treefrog. Yes, you have to ask yourself: what exactly are you expecting when a condition is met, such as a MS. How can you use that to your advantage?? Is it relevant to the timeframe I'm working with...

Also, on a side note. I notice on forums (and I have been guilty of this), is that a person's bias sometimes influences how loudly they call for a signal to be valid. I'm not necessarily talking about ramping). If you're in a position, or indeed if you're in a losing position, you tend to justify your hold with a myriad of supporting data...sometimes that comes out in a subtle manner. I guess it comes back to the old flaw that you have to be correct. Sometimes, the psychology of why people post what they do ( me included) is interesting in its own right.


----------



## treefrog (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Well, fwiw... the NAB has put in a pretty good looking Morning Star and the ANZ a string of three, the first probably OK, second not so good and third, best shape but on a minor low... but maybe qualifies anyway.
> If we are to assume stability in the financial sector is the key to the market improving, then these two must be a reasonable sign, eh?




and MQG, some rippers there.
But I think I know the problem - its those pesky gap traders - every time a gap appears they come in and close it.
sorry folks XAO thread - :topic


----------



## Whiskers (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> and MQG, some rippers there.
> But I think I know the problem - its those pesky gap traders - every time a gap appears they come in and close it.
> sorry folks XAO thread - :topic




*Show us, treefrog*. 

I don't see any. The only one that comes close is the low on 18th Sept, but the 3rd candle doesn't go more than half way up the first.

C'mon treefrog, if you're trading as badly as you're getting your facts wrong, I feel sorry for you.  

There was clearly a gap down on that INDU chart you insisted was not a gap down, a Morning Star.

You should recall, that research you quoted, catagorised the success rate solely on the direction of the 'single' candle following the pattern. A flaw in determining trend analysis solely on the basis of one candle. That research seemed to be aimed at daytraders who aim to trade the following dayfrom the candle formation, hence only 50% success rate.

You seem to have forgotten that I'm not a permabull... I'm a pragmatist. I have mentioned way back in the threads where I sold out of RAU on the corroberating sign of a *bearish* Evening Star and stayed clear of LOD on the basis of another. The rest is history.

I pointed out three bearish Evening Stars as well, EUR/AUD, Gold GBP and Gold EUR.

And you might recall a little while ago nomore4's had a shot at me in similar vain to you, but he (in)conveniently forgot that apart from my being bearish oil and gold at times among others, I argued him to go short WPL to 43 when it was in the high 50's I think, and he was contemplating/trying to go long in a thread on the forum.

Candle patterns are just one of a number of indicators I follow. I just specifically mentioned them here because there seemed to be an extraudinary number of them in concert.


----------



## treefrog (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> *Show us, treefrog*.
> 
> I don't see any. The only one that comes close is the low on 18th Sept, but the 3rd candle doesn't go more than half way up the first.
> 
> ...




for goodness sake, all those you posted as MS patterns on ANZ (last ANZ one hardly a MS as sideways prior - not a downtrend) and NAB have already failed, and get this, they have failed on the basis of the charts you posted. I posted MQG because it gave a better picture of banking sentiment/action around those failures because you were rabbiting on about what financials *might* do.
People will make up their own minds whiskers about the tradeability of your stars, meanwhile I have put some aspirin in your saucer of milk and a couple of cyclamen petals in yesterday's mince to freshen up your tucker - hope you feel better soon


----------



## nomore4s (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> And you might recall a little while ago nomore4's had a shot at me in similar vain to you, but he (in)conveniently forgot that apart from my being bearish oil and gold at times among others, I argued him to go short WPL to 43 when it was in the high 50's I think, and he was contemplating/trying to go long in a thread on the forum.




Just to clear this up whiskers, I did go long on WPL - twice and both times I had +5x R/R winners, in fact I was already long when you made that call and got stopped out soon after. I also never said the price wouldn't drop only that it was a long way from the current price - never made the call that it would or wouldn't get there, I'll leave that to you.

I think I'm trading different timeframes to you mate.

I don't bother trying to argue with you or correct you as you seem to forget your bad calls and rub everyones faces in the ones you get right.


----------



## chops_a_must (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> C'mon treefrog, if you're trading as badly as you're getting your facts wrong, I feel sorry for you.



Too funny...

You've gone through fibs, regression channels, EW, and now candlesticks.

Which analysis are you going to be obsessed with next? And perhaps because you are allowing your bias to affect your analysis, rather than your analysis affecting your bias, that you feel the need to chop and change your analysis obsession after you have been absolutely caned. Rather than looking at other things that are probably leading to that instead?

Cheers.


----------



## Whiskers (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> for goodness sake, all those you posted as MS patterns on ANZ (last ANZ one hardly a MS as sideways prior - not a downtrend) and NAB have already failed, and get this, they have failed on the basis of the charts you posted.




NAB up trend certainly has not failed. ANZ has made higher highs and the higher lows made minor Morning Stars to kick on the momentum. Certainly has not failed.



> I posted MQG because it gave a better picture of banking sentiment/action around those failures because you were rabbiting on about what financials *might* do.




You made a nonsense statement about Morning Stars on MQB, there are none... and MQB is one of the last I would choose as representative of the Australian banking system and economy anyway.



> People will make up their own minds whiskers about the tradeability of your stars...




Of course they will, along with Fibinacci, EW, P&F, that kumo cloud or whatever else method. 

and because I was asked NICELY to mention any significant ones I will. 

PNA has only a small weighting in the resource sector, but fits into the larger pattern.


----------



## treefrog (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> PNA has only a small weighting in the resource sector, but fits into the larger pattern.




yep PNA may yet be a successful MS - could be a first, worth posting in the relevant thread as just a wee bit ....:topic


----------



## Whiskers (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Just to clear this up whiskers, I did go long on WPL - twice and both times I had +5x R/R winners, in fact I was already long when you made that call and got stopped out soon after. I also never said the price wouldn't drop only that it was a long way from the current price - never made the call that it would or wouldn't get there, I'll leave that to you.




Quite so.



> I think I'm trading different timeframes to you mate.




Quite so again.



> I don't bother trying to argue with you or correct you as you seem to forget your bad calls and rub everyones faces in the ones you get right.




*Illogically perceived provication or hurt is not reasonable grounds for insults and abuse. *



chops_a_must said:


> Too funny...
> 
> You've gone through fibs, regression channels, EW, and now candlesticks.
> 
> Which analysis are you going to be obsessed with next?




All of them... depending on which is more relevant or prominant at the time.



> And perhaps because you are allowing your bias to affect your analysis, rather than your analysis affecting your bias, that you feel the need to chop and change your analysis...




Huh... *You guys are extremely judgemental aren't you.* 

My trading changes with my analysis. If you spent a bit more time studying carefully you would see I have posted a mixture of bullish and bearish signals in different segments of the market.

I'm just putting out legitimate signs for analysis. 

*One thing I do NOT do, unlike a small bunch of you, is stalk the forum like the proverbial schoolyard bully, berating  anyone that looks at you the wrong way or you just feel like plowing into because you can.*

If you don't mind, get some behavioural training and learn to control your emotions. You'll be better investers/traders and citizens for the effort.


----------



## Whiskers (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OK.... EW is now my flavour of the moment.

Have we put in wave 3 on the hourly yet? 

Looks a bit of a chance to finish in green today, eh?


----------



## nunthewiser (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ok my call is there , scroll back , i have traded accordingly , bring on the red, today is the end of the top of current rally on the xao/xjo.... just an opinion pay no heed


----------



## saiter (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wow, the XAO closes 2 points up after a strong rally in the afternoon. I guess I was wrong haha, but I'm amazed that the XAO managed to track the DJI so closely. Both observed a small change!


----------



## Sunder (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm thinking we'll test resistance somewhere around the 4300 mark before falling again. 

I'm very uncertain about where we're going. The fact that we're shrugging off bad news, to me, seems like the worst has been priced in, and we'll float around aimlessly for a bit.


----------



## treefrog (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> C'mon treefrog, if you're trading as badly as you're getting your facts wrong, *I feel sorry for you*.




thanks heaps whiskers - got a bad trade running atm on XEJ thread, don't know what to do with it - you got any advice there? would greatly appreciate any comment.


----------



## Whiskers (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> thanks heaps whiskers - got a bad trade running atm on XEJ thread, don't know what to do with it - you got any advice there? would greatly appreciate any comment.




Well, if it were me, based on my data, I'd take my profits and run ASAP.

Very slight gap up... probable Evening Star coming.  You asked for it. 

Among other signs, stochastics are high on index and major componet stocks WPL and ORG.

Very high chance of oil going to new lows overnight.

Ouch... let us know how you went.


----------



## saiter (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*The monthly chart*




*The daily chart*


----------



## treefrog (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Well, if it were me, based on my data, I'd take my profits and run ASAP.
> 
> Very slight gap up... probable Evening Star coming.  You asked for it.
> 
> ...




OK but just to understand your advice:
mid trade I need to:
1) swap indicators
2) swap timescale (hrs to days)
3) swap to candle patterns that are incomplete
I'll take that on board.
Your style is a lot like chops says then.


----------



## Whiskers (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> thanks heaps whiskers - *got a bad trade running *atm on XEJ thread, don't know what to do with it - you got any advice there? *would greatly appreciate any comment*.






treefrog said:


> OK but just to understand your advice:
> mid trade I need to:
> 1) swap indicators
> 2) swap timescale (hrs to days)
> ...




Gees, that's not a very 'appreciative' comment, treefrog.

Well... for me, it's much wiser to think in terms of probability and trade risk analysis, for me both high atm... and suspect a cliff coming up and plan, than worry about what to do once you've gone over it. 

There's and old EW saying that's been going around... guide/temper your short term view by the bigger pattern/picture, ie trading shorter term indicators alone can get a bit like a donkey with blinkers on.

Anyway, I guess this difference in opinion reflects our personality to a large degree... you being a 'trend follower' and me a... well you'll need to figure that out to appreciate it. :


----------



## tech/a (4 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Personally closed all my long positions today.

Its common for these retracements in a bear market to form 3 internal waves.
So we have wave 1 (A)-- likely to have a pullback to form wave 2 (B) before continuing to 4350 to 4800 wave 3 (C).

Maybe a little early but have at least have a nice profit banked.


----------



## chops_a_must (5 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Personally closed all my long positions today.
> 
> Its common for these retracements in a bear market to form 3 internal waves.
> So we have wave 1 (A)-- likely to have a pullback to form wave 2 (B) before continuing to 4350 to 4800 wave 3 (C).
> ...




Well... we've had a breakdown of support on the VIX.

So I'm expecting a run on the XAO to about 4800, and the DOW to about 10500 in reasonably quick time.

Unless this is just a head fake and false break.


----------



## tech/a (5 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Could do Chops.4350 to 4850 is the obvious range of this move.
May not go straight to go before collecting the $200


----------



## chops_a_must (5 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Could do Chops.4350 to 4850 is the obvious range of this move.
> May not go straight to go before collecting the $200




Yeah, probably more an indication of where we will be by the end of the month.

Perhaps free parking might give people another shot to get in on this move upwards.


----------



## jonojpsg (5 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Well, if it were me, based on my data, I'd take my profits and run ASAP.
> 
> Very slight gap up... probable Evening Star coming.  You asked for it.
> 
> ...




A very high chance that did not eventuate - oil up $6.  Don't forget to read the Peak Oil thread people - you will see that oil has only one way to go IMO


----------



## chops_a_must (5 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Very high chance of oil going to new lows overnight.
> 
> Ouch... let us know how you went.



Are you going to continuously remind us of this call as well Whiskers?


----------



## nunthewiser (5 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

oh well , looks like i miss a bit of cream on the trades ......... sheet happens , still tho a buck in the bank beats a buck in the bushes anyday ....... will be other trade entrys


----------



## Whiskers (5 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jonojpsg said:


> Don't forget to read the Peak Oil thread people - you will see that oil has only one way to go IMO




Yeah, thanks jono... actually I do keep a close eye on it, although I mostly posted in the Oil Again' thread, when the Oil peak burst. 

Still think it's got one more significant leg down before it bottoms, probably in the 40's. More to to with market action and over-reaction than anything else.



> A very high chance that did not eventuate - oil up $6.




Actually, it did find new lows in USD about three/four hours after our market closed at 62.25 for US and 58.41 for Brent, before it went higher in USD.

BUT, what is important is the AUD strengthened 4 cents against the USD at the same time, from about .66 to .70. 

Haven't done the maths yet to see what oil now equates to when converted back to AUD. 

From our markets perspective it's the AUD conversion that's important. Similarly, metals and gold made small gains in USD, but probably wiped out in the AUD conversion.

The US stocks also rallied on election day, but I think that was a bit of a no-brainer given US paitriotism of late.

The $64 question is whether or not our markets follows the US and where is oil and our market or more particularly the XEJ, going to end the day, bearing in mind that oil (in USD) is still in a down trend and coming off it's overnight peak in the last few hours and the AUD, I believe has bottomed a few days ago and is in an uptrend again.

With regard to treefrogs question, it's risky and as I said could easily drop off a cliff, if solely focusing on the hourly charts... hence I would either be watching it like a mother hen or taking my profits conservatively.


----------



## treefrog (5 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Still think it's got one more significant leg down before it bottoms, probably in the 40's. More to to with market action and over-reaction than anything else.




well.........there ya go, something we agree on whiskers - 40's for oil. It's likely the Omani oil minister agrees as saw a newswire where they (Oman) included oil revenues in their 09 budget at $55 (ave for the year) but yes, yes.....:topic
oh and re the XEJ trade - not trading the oil prospects, just the retrace following oversold conditions


----------



## OzWaveGuy (5 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> oh well , looks like i miss a bit of cream on the trades ......... sheet happens , still tho a buck in the bank beats a buck in the bushes anyday ....... will be other trade entrys




Can't call them all nun . However, the next couple of days will tell where the market is heading. As of today, a possible wave c up is complete in a wave IV triangle (same on the S&P500).


----------



## Sunder (5 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was wondering about something I observed about yesterdays hanging man candle. 

When you get a hangman, people tend to say that the upward run has finished.

However, is that because they expect a morning star pattern to form the next day by gapping down lower?

If the following day starts with a gap up and continues on with strength, would you say then that a hanging man was a false signal, and was actually more representative of a hammer, indicating a bottom was tested, and respected, and the upward trend would continue?

I'm trying to learn a bit more about candlestick analysis, but I am a bit confused and amused by the multiple interpretations depending on context, both before AND AFTER a signal.


----------



## MRC & Co (5 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's just logic Sunder, apply your own to it to form your own conclusions.

I don't give my credence to a hanging man.  I personally, think a shooting star is more reliable due to the low close (high volume preferable and if the tail hits a resistance, then it's very strong IMO).

If price gaps up above a hanging man, do you think it would invalidate it?  I do.

Anyways, perhaps create a thread on candlesticks or search for one.


----------



## nunthewiser (5 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Can't call them all nun . However, the next couple of days will tell where the market is heading. As of today, a possible wave c up is complete in a wave IV triangle (same on the S&P500).




cheers , looks like i was out by a day only . in fact some of the trades closed were of only a minor rise past my exits anyways with the exception of BHP but hey not too many out there can say they can pick the exact highest and lowests 

any thoughts on ST moves except the obvious falls tommorow ? small pullback and continue rally or we finished this rally completely and heading for new lows now ?

only opinions sought not gunna hold ya ransom to them


----------



## tech/a (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Highly likely this is the end of the wave 4
This "Could" develop into a 3 wave correction to 4500 -4800 but looks unlikely with the severity of todays thrust down.

Wave 5 down is expected initially to reach 3200.
wether thats part of this move or wave 4 actually continues---which looks doubtful.(I'm noticing any corrections from this mornings fall are not supported with volume.Sellers are waiting for any move to sell into).


----------



## nunthewiser (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Highly likely this is the end of the wave 4
> This "Could" develop into a 3 wave correction to 4500 -4800 but looks unlikely with the severity of todays thrust down.
> 
> Wave 5 down is expected initially to reach 3200.
> wether thats part of this move or wave 4 actually continues---which looks doubtful.(I'm noticing any corrections from this mornings fall are not supported with volume.Sellers are waiting for any move to sell into).




cheers , yeah i think patience for now may be the winner , i got no indicators ringin in for a long buy as yet , only one actually looking at me for a trade but even that i think i may get a little cheaper yet 

thanks for your view


----------



## Whiskers (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Another Evening Star. :hide:

WPL: although only on a minor high, but everything is relative. Probably significant enough to see it go lower for a couple of weeks or so.

It's only about 3% of XAO, about 9% of Resources but about 30% of Energy XEJ.

So assuming other oil stocks trend the same way, that's gonna be a bit of a dead weight on the XAO getting up very much.

_Possible Evening Star call on XEJ, a false alarm. My Chart didn't refresh properly when I set it up_. 

So hopefully this one makes up for it.  Check for yer self.

Treefrog, did ya take yer profits yet or are yer still rideing it (XEJ)?


----------



## Boggo (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There is room for another up day but judging by the last bar I would say we could be seeing the Wave 5 take shape.

There are many stocks in a similiar pattern just begging to be shorted.
Can someone tell the 'no shorting' decision makers and their supporters that the market is going down anyway regardless of whether we can trade it or not 

My


----------



## tcoates (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes... it does appear to be in no mans land at the present. Would tend to think that it would progress towards monthly lows around 3500 (as it moved up though the pivot point yesterday but today was def. down). 

With the size of the down move today (?) would expect tomorrow to be up, even if slightly, but then...

... still would depend on size of move in DOW (and/or S&P 500) overnight.

Which all goes to show that daily speculation on the next day is akin to reading tea leaves (or the stuff you find in the bottom of a bottle of red wine). 

BUT THE GENERAL DIRECTION IS STILL DOWN.

Whiskers - I didn't know this was a WPL/Candle thread 

Could someone create a morning/evening star thread for Whiskers?

Tim


----------



## nunthewiser (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoates said:


> Could someone create a morning/evening star thread for Whiskers?
> 
> Tim




i think it depends on the timezone you are in


----------



## Whiskers (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoates said:


> Yes... it does appear to be in no mans land at the present. Would tend to think that it would progress towards monthly lows around 3500 (as it moved up though the pivot point yesterday but today was def. down).
> 
> With the size of the down move today (?) would expect tomorrow to be up, even if slightly, but then...
> 
> ... still would depend on size of move in DOW (and/or S&P 500) overnight.




Yeah, to some extent... but I'm thinking commodity prices and the AUD are probably more significant now, cos I doubt we can get much strength without the resource and agriculture sectors doing well.



> Which all goes to show that daily speculation on the next day is akin to reading tea leaves (or the stuff you find in the bottom of a bottle of red wine).




...or the stars. 



> Whiskers - I didn't know this was a WPL/Candle thread
> 
> Could someone create a morning/evening star thread for Whiskers?
> 
> Tim




Augh, com'on Tim... candles and the direction of significant stocks in the XAO and the sectors has got to be just as or more significant to the XAO as the SPI, XJO, DOW, S&P 500, Nasdaq, other futures, VIX, EW, Fibinacci etc... and certainly more relevant than a lot of the idle chit chat and personality attacking that goes on. :

PS: Smart ass, nun.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Before anyone asks - yes it's off topic. Now for my question: Does anyone know where I can get a list of the RBA interest rate rises/cuts including date and time released. The RBA site doesn't appear to have anything. Appreciate your help.


----------



## Whiskers (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Before anyone asks - yes it's off topic. Now for my question: Does anyone know where I can get a list of the RBA interest rate rises/cuts including date and time released. The RBA site doesn't appear to have anything. Appreciate your help.




Try here OzWaveGuy... and I reckon it's relevant. 

http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/AlphaListing/alpha_listing_i.html

scroll down to:
Interest Rate - Monetary Policy Changes - A2 http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/Bulletin/A02hist.xls


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> There is room for another up day but judging by the last bar I would say we could be seeing the Wave 5 take shape.
> 
> There are many stocks in a similiar pattern just begging to be shorted.
> Can someone tell the 'no shorting' decision makers and their supporters that the market is going down anyway regardless of whether we can trade it or not
> ...




Boggo you are on the money mate.

Looks like a wave 5 beginning.

One way to short is to sell any stocks you now own and buy back in at the end of the wave 5.

Otherwise options may be the go.

gg


----------



## nunthewiser (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Try here OzWaveGuy... and I reckon it's relevant.
> 
> http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/AlphaListing/alpha_listing_i.html
> 
> ...




definately relevant , in fact if one of you kind ppl want to post a chart with vols and intrest rate rises and falls dated shown on there for the last 2 years minimum (preferebly 8 but getting the daily vols might be a bit hard on them dates) id be much abliged , i dont know how to attach bits and bobs or postem here

thankyou in advance regardless


----------



## davo8 (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Wave 5 down is expected initially to reach 3200.




I doubt it. I'll pick support at 3400 based on the old 2004 support and 2002 resistance levels. Maybe it'll go lower eventually, but not in one go. Some of us have long memories.


----------



## tech/a (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

More pain tonight.
I expect upto 4%.


----------



## nunthewiser (6 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> More pain tonight.
> I expect upto 4%.




yep a bit of data due tonight and fri night 

data released tonight:chain store sales -0.3%(est),jobless claims 480K(est),productivity+costs Q3 1.0%(est) all at 12.30am EST. Tomorrow night is nonfarm payrolls Oct -200K(est),unemployment rate Oct 6.3%(est) both at 12.30am EST followed by pending home sales Sept -3.4%(est) at 02.00am EST. 

them exits not looking to bad now hey


----------



## OzWaveGuy (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Try here OzWaveGuy... and I reckon it's relevant.
> 
> http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/AlphaListing/alpha_listing_i.html
> 
> ...




Thanks Whiskers. I would never of found it 

I'll post a chart when a get time


----------



## OzWaveGuy (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Since I've been 'off topic' in some recent posts. I thought I'd share some  Elliottwave Analysis for the XAO Short, Medium and Longer Term trends in one file.

I've previously posted analysis in different categories, and the previous posts below will keep me honest. As for the XAO and S&P500, and nothing has really changed on the analysis since the last posts - the market is still unfolding with more downside to come.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=355016&postcount=175

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=354062&postcount=5307


----------



## saiter (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Since I've been 'off topic' in some recent posts. I thought I'd share some  Elliottwave Analysis for the XAO Short, Medium and Longer Term trends in one file.
> 
> I've previously posted analysis in different categories, and the previous posts below will keep me honest. As for the XAO and S&P500, and nothing has really changed on the analysis since the last posts - the market is still unfolding with more downside to come.
> 
> ...




Nice work Oz! The XAO at 1500 sounds pretty scary...


----------



## nick2fish (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



saiter said:


> Nice work Oz! The XAO at 1500 sounds pretty scary...




Yea.... So doses the earth been invaded by meat eating zombies or a fully loaded jumbo hitting a pig mid flight.... ain't never gonna happen


----------



## wildthing (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Higher Low on monday and on up to 4950?
Bullish hammer forming [yet to be confirmed], gap to be filled, and Dow futures up a bit.
What do u reckon....pie in the sky?
Cheers


----------



## skyQuake (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nick2fish said:


> Yea.... So doses the earth been invaded by meat eating zombies or a fully loaded jumbo hitting a pig mid flight.... ain't never gonna happen




When NAB collapses its a possibility; But thats wildcard scenario... Geeze 1500 would see some REAL bargains


----------



## MRC & Co (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That 1500 target is pie in the sky alright!


----------



## OzWaveGuy (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> That 1500 target is pie in the sky alright!




That's right - and many people have said the exact same line plenty of times in the past - couldn't possibly ever happen, and of course were never prepared for when it actually did. Reminds me of several Australian banks who said early in Q1 this year that their exposure to the unfolding subprime crisis was minimal - only to revise their statements weeks later.

The Dow hit 41 in July 8th, 1932, after plummeting from a high of 381 on September 3rd, 1929. A 92% decline in value, the Dow did not get back to 381 until November of 1954, twenty-five years after the peak.

And at the bottom, those who said it was over were ridiculed once again - it's perfect human nature and that's the way Elliottwave works


----------



## MRC & Co (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> The Dow hit 41 in July 8th, 1932, after plummeting from a high of 381 on September 3rd, 1929. A 92% decline in value, the Dow did not get back to 381 until November of 1954, twenty-five years after the peak.
> 
> it's perfect human nature and that's the way Elliottwave works




The DOW hit a 92% decline in value due to a great depression.

Is EW forcasting this already based on current human emotion?


----------



## tcoates (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ummm. But I have seen in posts on other forums or emails alternative points of view. Some indicate a long (5-7 years) flat period (range bound) vs an up movement after 2 years.

OzWave - there are some "must" and "if" which make it seem conditional. As such, there are alternatives? Are there not?

Tim

PS. This is not a criticism. Just thinking out loud.


----------



## chops_a_must (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> The DOW hit a 92% decline in value due to a great depression.
> 
> Is EW forcasting this already based on current human emotion?



Of course, why are you even asking this question?

As the great Elliotician, Pilus of Crapus once said, "the markets have nothing to do with buying selling, fair value and agreeable price, only emotion".


----------



## nunthewiser (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

lol when i called the markets to plummet down to 4800 at least in commsec when the xao was above 6500 i got called allsorts of mentally unstable names .not saying i think 1500 a possibility , just saying i wouldnt write anything off in these troubled times


----------



## Ageo (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nick2fish said:


> Yea.... So doses the earth been invaded by meat eating zombies or a fully loaded jumbo hitting a pig mid flight.... ain't never gonna happen




lol i love peoples ignorance!, i just hope your not advising anyone!

P.S im not saying 1500 is likely but never say never (remember you dont determine the market but it determines you).


----------



## gfresh (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OzWaveGuy, I know yours is purely a technical perspective, however does the wave count illustrated be backtested to any periods in the last 50 years? Or even longer I guess, but over similar periods to that illustrated.  

Sorry I know very little about EW, however surely if it can be predictive like this it must apply equally to previous periods in the recent past?


----------



## chops_a_must (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> lol when i called the markets to plummet down to 4800 at least in commsec when the xao was above 6500 i got called allsorts of mentally unstable names .not saying i think 1500 a possibility , just saying i wouldnt write anything off in these troubled times




Neither would I.

But something else pretty dramatic would have to get us down there I would reckon. And if it does, it's kind of irrelevant because we'll all be eating cat food anyway.


----------



## nunthewiser (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> we'll all be eating cat food anyway.




LOL dont write off cat food in troubled times either  some mighty fine lookin varietys out there  if worse comes to worse and ya cant afford cat food , theres always the cat


----------



## $20shoes (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Does anyone want to join me in a possible inverted Head and Shoulders formation for a rally up to 4800?? Come on...say you'll join me...we'll all hold hands and pretend everything is rosy ( because it'll take denial to get us there, and then we'll have room for some of the old ultra-violence once again).
Note some good divergence in the money flow during the H&S formation.


----------



## MRC & Co (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Neither would I.
> 
> But something else pretty dramatic would have to get us down there I would reckon.




Exactly.

Without some terrible unexpected news, we are not seeing 1500.  

No doubt it could get down there, if things really go haywire, but no CURRENT sentiment can price that in.  Absolute rubbish.


----------



## tech/a (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Neither would I.
> 
> But something else pretty dramatic would have to get us down there I would reckon. And if it does, it's kind of irrelevant because we'll all be eating cat food anyway.




Hmm lets try Obama assassinated and a race war in the US.

How about a few more fund collapses and a total run on Funds and banks world wide by panicked investors who are sure they will lose their entire savings.

How about a total collapse of the US/European monetary system.

Impossible?

Your also missing the point of the analysis.
All its doing is pointing to possibilities NOT certainties


----------



## MRC & Co (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

But are any of them priced into current sentiment tech?  

What is the point of a possibility when it is based on something with a tiny probability (based on it's assumptions?).  How would you trade that?


----------



## davo8 (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> As for the XAO and S&P500, and nothing has really changed on the analysis since the last posts - the market is still unfolding with more downside to come.




Agreed, but the enclosed chart is nonsense. It relies on a bogus long term trend going back over 50 years. That trend was broken forever by the onset of inflation in the 1970s. The XAO is now scaled upwards and trended upwards by inflation and can never reach those low levels again. If you adjust the XAO for CPI or GDP you will find the trend bottom is now around 3500 or so.

Also, the crash on the DOW in 1929 has already been repeated on the NASDAQ in 2000 and the SSE this year, but the conditions do not exist for it to repeat on the DOW or XAO. There is not the steep prior rise to give room for that kind of fall this time, and the market structure is totally different.


----------



## CanOz (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL dont write off cat food in troubled times either  some mighty fine lookin varietys out there  if worse comes to worse and ya cant afford cat food , theres always the cat




LOL! Your a funny nun!

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## MRC & Co (7 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> LOL! Your a funny nun!
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...




LOL, I reckon!


----------



## sinner (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ah yes, inflation could never be reversed or halted could it...


----------



## chops_a_must (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> Does anyone want to join me in a possible inverted Head and Shoulders formation for a rally up to 4800?? Come on...say you'll join me...we'll all hold hands and pretend everything is rosy ( because it'll take denial to get us there, and then we'll have room for some of the old ultra-violence once again).
> Note some good divergence in the money flow during the H&S formation.



That's how I'm trading it.

Two bob each way for now.


tech/a said:


> Hmm lets try Obama assassinated and a race war in the US.
> 
> How about a few more fund collapses and a total run on Funds and banks world wide by panicked investors who are sure they will lose their entire savings.
> 
> ...



We've already had a run on funds of sorts.

I'd say your chances of trading on possibilities rather than probabilities is not good. Long side 4800, short side lows and then 3200 after. And worry about things when and if they then reach these levels.

And yeah... we'll all be eating cat food so who cares?


----------



## CamKawa (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Neither would I.
> 
> But something else pretty dramatic would have to get us down there I would reckon. And if it does, it's kind of irrelevant because we'll all be eating cat food anyway.



The two areas of support are the 2003 low of 2770 followed by 1987 at 1200. I reckon the music might stop at 2770 but wouldn't rule out 1200. What's going to lead XAO to either of these new depths? That's an easy question to answer, the financials. Australia is sitting in the mother of all housing bubbles and while house prices have gone a bit soft this year should they really tank due to a hike in unemployment then our banks, particularly CBA Australia's biggest home loan lender, which is seen as one of the safer banks may suddenly look very risky. Oh and SGB is a joke only being down 26% in the middle of a financial crisis.


----------



## Sean K (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> The two areas of support are the 2003 low of 2770 followed by 1987 at 1200. I reckon the music might stop at 2770 but wouldn't rule out 1200.



Looks like a bump at 3400 ish first IMO, and has been discussed. This level coincides with a few supporting factors.


----------



## tech/a (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

3200 on the low side to 4800 on the high side are the 2 figures of interest as pork chop points out. Anything in between is boring.


----------



## Sean K (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> 3200 on the low side



What's 3200 coincide with?


----------



## MrBurns (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> 3200 on the low side to 4800 on the high side are the 2 figures of interest as pork chop points out. Anything in between is boring.




Are you fairly agreed that around 3200 would be the bottom and the time to buy in, not for trading but for long term holding ?


----------



## chops_a_must (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> What's 3200 coincide with?




It looks like it comes into play with some EW stuff, but from my perspective, more fib type of levels from the first leg down in this move into January this year.


----------



## Whiskers (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> The two areas of support are the 2003 low of 2770 followed by 1987 at 1200. I reckon the music might stop at 2770 but wouldn't rule out 1200. What's going to lead XAO to either of these new depths? That's an easy question to answer, the financials. *Australia is sitting in the mother of all housing bubbles *and while house prices have gone a bit soft this year should they really tank due to a hike in unemployment then our banks, particularly CBA Australia's biggest home loan lender, which is seen as one of the safer banks may suddenly look very risky. Oh and SGB is a joke only being down 26% in the middle of a financial crisis.




*I don't think it's that bad *CamKawa. Sure, Aus has some high debt levels, but we don't have the intrinsic default trigger that the US has... ie there is not a large subprime market in Aus and our financial system is much better regulated, consequently you won't see people just walking away from their homes and debt en mass. I don't see a bit of a rise in unemployment causing major problems in the housing market. 





nunthewiser said:


> LOL dont write off cat food in troubled times either  some mighty fine lookin varietys out there  if worse comes to worse and ya cant afford cat food , theres always the cat






CanOz said:


> LOL! Your a funny nun!
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...




Hey, you lot... stop scaring my cats. 

Cat's are really man's best friend... ya never know when you'll need an extra life or two.


Besides, there's not much meat on a scrawny old cat, they're mostly a few tough little muscles and cunning grey matter.

Now BEARS on the other hand are big and plentifull atm... and mostly starting to tire out, so they're easy prey ... except Panda's of course, they're protected.


----------



## mazzatelli1000 (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Now BEARS on the other hand are big and plentifull atm... and mostly starting to tire out, *so they're easy prey *... except Panda's of course, they're protected.




ahhhh a risk taker !!!


----------



## OzWaveGuy (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoates said:


> Ummm. But I have seen in posts on other forums or emails alternative points of view. Some indicate a long (5-7 years) flat period (range bound) vs an up movement after 2 years.
> 
> OzWave - there are some "must" and "if" which make it seem conditional. As such, there are alternatives? Are there not?
> 
> ...




No problems TC. There's an alternative count that puts the bottom in at around 3250 points - all described in the file posted.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> OzWaveGuy, I know yours is purely a technical perspective, however does the wave count illustrated be backtested to any periods in the last 50 years? Or even longer I guess, but over similar periods to that illustrated.
> 
> Sorry I know very little about EW, however surely if it can be predictive like this it must apply equally to previous periods in the recent past?




I suggest you take a look at www.elliottwave.com - there's plenty of free material there. As for 'backtesting' look for 5-3 wave formations at any degree of trend at any timescale on any index. Some will be very easy to spot, some will be very complex.


----------



## MRC & Co (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Are you fairly agreed that around 3200 would be the bottom and the time to buy in, not for trading but for long term holding ?




lol, want a tip Mr Burns?  

I heard nuclear power is a good invesment


----------



## nick2fish (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Ageo said:


> lol i love peoples ignorance!, i just hope your not advising anyone!
> 
> P.S im not saying 1500 is likely but never say never (remember you dont determine the market but it determines you).




I'll not buy into this fashion where the most dire prediction wins. I'll not rule out WW III or any other global disaster, for that IMO is what it would take to achieve the 1500 level. 
But I will not allow my trading strategies to be ruled by a Henny Penny "Sky is falling " philosophy
JUST MY OPINION


Ageo I may not be up to your legendary trader status, but I have traded through the sub-prime and I am still in the game so pls do not take me for a fool. Thank You, Nick


----------



## kotim (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO 3440 area will pull the market up, It is the 50% retrace of all time high, not to mention the tops of 01-02.  If you go back to 1987 you will see that it had a 50% pullback and bottomed.  50% is THE MOST IMPORTANT retracement number in the market without any doubt, whether your a technician or a fundie everybody knows what 50% means, (61.8 means nothing to fundies and many techies) so if your looking for major buying from fundies and techies look at 50%.  The 50% area will get bought up big time if and when it happens, COUNT ON IT.  

Now of course whether that stops the market long term may be a different matter, however short mid term if the marekt gets down there then we will bounce hard.

But we have to get there first, time will tell.


----------



## nick2fish (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> XAO 3440 area will pull the market up, It is the 50% retrace of all time high, not to mention the tops of 01-02.  If you go back to 1987 you will see that it had a 50% pullback and bottomed.  50% is THE MOST IMPORTANT retracement number in the market without any doubt, whether your a technician or a fundie everybody knows what 50% means, (61.8 means nothing to fundies and many techies) so if your looking for major buying from fundies and techies look at 50%.  The 50% area will get bought up big time if and when it happens, COUNT ON IT.
> 
> Now of course whether that stops the market long term may be a different matter, however short mid term if the marekt gets down there then we will bounce hard.
> 
> But we have to get there first, time will tell.




Good Post so I want to paste it again. Agree totally with the support level and subsequent retracement. This is the area of realistic outcomes that I am factoring into my trading at the moment.


----------



## nunthewiser (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nick2fish said:


> Ageo I may not be up to your legendary trader status, but I have traded through the sub-prime and I am still in the game so pls do not take me for a fool. Thank You, Nick




And that my friends is a fair call ... knows for a fact through listening to other chats/emails/forums/comments that this downturn has left many a would be trader as either a long term holder with no cash left to trade OR has left many a would be trader with no capital OR holdings to continue the game ....

well done and may the force be with you


----------



## nunthewiser (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Hey, you lot... stop scaring my cats.
> 
> Cat's are really man's best friend... ya never know when you'll need an extra life or two.
> 
> ...




 was gunna say something crude and rude regarding cats alternative name but being a nun i thought better of it.

as far as that big ole bear tiring out i reckon all he needs is a good feed of fresh money to give him back his ooomf before he swallows his next new bunch of prey..


----------



## kotim (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I've certainly noticed a few people with shinier 'coats' recently, perhaps there is truth in what those cat/dog food adds tell us.


----------



## MRC & Co (8 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> so if your looking for major buying from fundies look at 50%.  The 50% area will get bought up big time if and when it happens, COUNT ON IT.




Fundies use 50% retracements?  Never seen that side of the fence, global macro positions of institutions that is, so unsure...........

But if we move to and through that 50% level due to whatever current sentiment reading, techies will push it through even further!  A time when 'jumping the creek' and motorway comes in handy.


----------



## kotim (9 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

When you say half price (50%) everybody listens, some act and some don't, everybody wants a discount and 50% is a very serious discount


----------



## MRC & Co (9 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> When you say half price (50%) everybody listens, some act and some don't, everybody wants a discount and 50% is a very serious discount




lol, doesn't exactly GUARANTEE institutional support as you suggest.  But an important level nonetheless.

Oh and actually not part of the fib sequence if I am correct.


----------



## $20shoes (9 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> When you say half price (50%) everybody listens, some act and some don't, everybody wants a discount and 50% is a very serious discount




Of course, there is that natural tendency to look for a 50% mark as being a level of equilibrium, or a return to a mean, since it fulfils the human tendency to define "a" relative to "b" - there are two distinct parts to the market; where there is Yin, there is a Yang; where there is an action, there's an opposite reaction; where there is East, there is West. There is a a sense of harmony at a midpoint ; it has a very human and innate level of attraction.  

The concept of equilibrium is an extremely important to some Japanese traders. For example, one of the MA studies in a cloud chart marks the midpoint of the market to which the price could potentially spend an equal amount of time above and below.

Some of us may look for the midpoints in channels and bands an other studies too. 

We can only wait and see how much creedence the market gives to this level. Regarding her movements, the markets tend to behave in a very disharmonious manner concerning any calls I make!!!


----------



## skyQuake (9 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In my experience with fibs, they work better with recent trends rather than some low made so far back that everyone has forgotten about.




XJO from the all time high in Oct 07 to mid Jan this yr, the bounce was sharp like the decline. Intraday it hit 50% then came off savagely.





Similar but weaker, made new lows, then tried to bounce again. 50% arrested the rally.





Finally, this fib is the retractment of the best know trend, the 03 to 07 rally. Bounced off 50% again, tested 38.2% from the downside and failing.

You need REAL and RECENT levels to draw retracements; the more well known the trend, the better. 3400 and 3300 whatever are NOT fib retracements. Sure if you keep looking back to the past you'll find some low that agrees with those levels. 

Fib levels make for good short/medium term bounces and reversals. I use them a fair bit but would not make any long term bets relying on pure fibs. Have a look at any historical charts and show me something that has made a nice even 50% low and new highs from there.

Cheers.


----------



## davo8 (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> You need REAL and RECENT levels to draw retracements; the more well known the trend, the better. 3400 and 3300 whatever are NOT fib retracements. Sure if you keep looking back to the past you'll find some low that agrees with those levels.




But for those of us with long memories who think this fib stuff is hokum, those are support and resistance levels that were pretty solid at the time. If the April 2002 and April 2004 levels hold, I think you'll see buyers. Forget this 38% of whatever stuff, these are straight levels everyone can see and everyone will pay attention to.


----------



## skyQuake (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> But for those of us with long memories who think this fib stuff is hokum, those are support and resistance levels that were pretty solid at the time. If the April 2002 and April 2004 levels hold, I think you'll see buyers. Forget this 38% of whatever stuff, these are straight levels everyone can see and everyone will pay attention to.




Yeh, thats pretty much my point too; Not everyone believes in fibs, and the more arcane you make your fib retractments the less likely its gonna work. Visible S&R levels are more likely to be obeyed than pure fibs.


----------



## motorway (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> But for those of us with long memories who think this fib stuff is hokum, those are support and resistance levels that were pretty solid at the time. If the April 2002 and April 2004 levels hold, I think you'll see buyers. Forget this 38% of whatever stuff, these are straight levels everyone can see and everyone will pay attention to.






http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/media/stories/resources/Magic_Numbers_in_the_Dow.pdf



> Our conclusion must be that there is no significant difference between the frequencies with which price and time ratios occur in cycles in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and frequencies which we would expect to occur at random in such a time series.
> 
> In our introduction, we noted that empirical evidence from academic studies suggests  that not all of technical analysis can be dismissed prima facie. The evidence from this paper suggests that the idea that round fractions and Fibonacci ratios occur in the Dow
> can be dismissed.






Magic_Numbers  ----> There aren't any , at  least in the past.


dyor
motorway


----------



## OzWaveGuy (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Since I've been 'off topic' in some recent posts. I thought I'd share some  Elliottwave Analysis for the XAO Short, Medium and Longer Term trends in one file.




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=358838&postcount=5586

Since there's was some good discussion after the XAO post above which covered possible short to long term targets - with a long term target of 1500 points or below as a strong possibility under the current elliottwave count.

Just so there's some context to some of the global markets - this chart (if accurate)... 

http://www.stocktiming.com/Shanghai_Daily_Stock_Market_Updates/shanghai-index-update-friday.htm .

...of the Shanghai index gives an example of some of the declines that markets around the world are currently experiencing. An interesting decline considering china is the manufacturing powerhouse and many people I meet consistently point to China, India or Russia as being the backup to the global economy. It will be these countries that will suffer considerably in a recession as the services (India) or the manufacturing orders (China) will no longer be plentiful.


----------



## MRC & Co (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Did your chart and analysis also note the wild behaviour and giant bubble that developed in the Shanghai Composite?  I think it did, but that part is extremelly important in the relativity stakes.  

Interesting you point to fundamental reasons this time.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Did your chart and analysis also note the wild behaviour and giant bubble that developed in the Shanghai Composite?  I think it did, but that part is extremelly important in the relativity stakes.
> 
> Interesting you point to fundamental reasons this time.




Sorry MRC didn't have access to a longer term chart in semi-log scale that would show a better picture - the bubble you mention is 'out-of-context' without the bigger picture. The declines still represent current social mood in china, the difference being over-invested sectors will be hit quite aggressively.

Investors have been cycling through many different sectors from stocks, to housing to Oil, to Gold etc as part of a topping process which has recently completed. This large process is simply a reflection of positive social mood turning to negative.


----------



## tcoates (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ummm. But with the Shanghai index, the value more than tripled over the space of a couple of years. I think that events were unique to cause the value of the index to triple.

Look at charts on Yahoo...

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

If the XAO were to do the same as per the Shanghai index (from start of 2006 to end of 2007), then our top would have been 13000+.

But it got NO WHERE NEAR THAT VALUE.

Not sure of source, but such steep rises are bound for large(r) falls. But many charts will show you this.

I dont think the comparison is really fair.

Tim


----------



## CamKawa (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Sorry MRC didn't have access to a longer term chart in semi-log scale that would show a better picture - the bubble you mention is 'out-of-context' without the bigger picture.



Maybe a linear will do?


----------



## MRC & Co (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

But are you not saying China fell from 6000 to 1700, meaning the XAO could see similar figures (a strong possibility you say) based on current sentiment having turned negative? 

You posted the Shanghai Composite chart to give some 'context', which IMHO, it clearly does not.  One had greed FAR in excess of the other market, hence, saw far more fear.   

The only context is what is currently being seen, with Shanghai being decimated and the XAO above 4000.  

Not going to 1500 based on current sentiment.  And it is far from a strong possibility (probability) IMO.

Agree with Tcoates, unfair comparison.


----------



## tech/a (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

3200 is (A strong possibility)  and that's 50% of the 6880 top.
Then its just another 50% of that.
This hasn't unwound yet not even close.
Companies haven't even started to find things tough yet.
Demand is only now starting to come off the boil.
After Xmas it will be so quiet you'll hear a pin drop.

Companies will be going into liquidation not just banks.
Reporting time will be time to fear rather than to look forward to better figures and a stronger price in stocks.

I wouldn't be so sure that its an impossibility!


----------



## MrBurns (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> 3200 is (A strong possibility)  and that's 50% of the 6880 top.
> Then its just another 50% of that.
> This hasn't unwound yet not even close.
> Companies haven't even started to find things tough yet.
> ...




You're not the only one that thinks that way - 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13296


----------



## MRC & Co (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm not sure it's an impossibility.

I'm sure EW (which shows current sentiment like most forms of TA if I am not mistaken), has no business forecasting such a movement, based on the assumptions it makes (sentiment readings).

You are talking fundamentals tech, which is what will be required (further degeneration of the economic climate), to push this market to 1500.


----------



## skyQuake (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/media/stories/resources/Magic_Numbers_in_the_Dow.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> ...




All they did is create adjustment of rules resulting in a mechanical system, ie: they made a black box. No ta there at all and no idea how to apply it. 
Then again, you can't blame them for being academics.


Also, enough of the 1500 business. It's a target, may or may not get hit in the next 1, 2, 5, 20 years. Markets sell off on uncertainty of future conditions. Uncertainity means no investors... Personally I don't think its going to get to those levels regardless of what news comes out (unless its truly horrific and unexpected stuff like Japan sinks into the sea or something. US in recession is not gonna do much to the markets imo)


----------



## M34N (10 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> 3200 is (A strong possibility)  and that's 50% of the 6880 top.
> Then its just another 50% of that.
> This hasn't unwound yet not even close.
> Companies haven't even started to find things tough yet.
> ...




I agree mostly with this, but again, we're only going on what we _think_ may happen. The truth is, no-one knows how low we will go, whether this will be a full blown out recession lasting years, or if it's just a slowdown and we go up from here.

Is there even proof Australia is heading for recession? From the figures released by the RBA today, they seem to still be talking about positive growth of 1.5%, that's hardly unexpected considering the stellar run we've had in the economy over the past few years. It's only natural to have a slow down, but predicting 1500 on the XAO based on what _might_ happen seems a little over the top.


----------



## motorway (11 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> All they did is create adjustment of rules resulting in a mechanical system, ie: they made a black box. No ta there at all and no idea how to apply it.
> Then again, you can't blame them for being academics.




Just in case there are others who don't know what a BlackBox is



> * Black boxes: Software systems that generate buy and sell recommendations *through proprietary (undisclosed) algorithms*. Investors using a "black box" are relying totally on the program. If the black box reasoning is wrong or unreliable, you won't know; nor will you have any control over the settings. You will also not be able to properly assess the level of risk in the program, and whether the risk matches your own risk tolerance.




Some more on "magic numbers"


http://www.lhup.edu/~dsimanek/pseudo/fibonacc.htm




> Fibonacci Foolishness.
> A search of the internet, or your local library, will convince you that the Fibonacci series has attracted the lunatic fringe who look for mysticism in numbers. You will find fantastic claims:
> 
> The "golden rectangle" is the "most beautiful" rectangle, and was deliberately used by artists in arranging picture elements within their paintings. (You'd think that they'd always use golden rectangle frames, but they didn't.)
> ...




*Of course much of this is patently nonsense. Mathematics doesn't "explain" anything in nature, but mathematical models are very powerful for describing patterns and laws found in nature.*

Yes I think a lot can be revealed  by measuring the actual 
retracements ( The actual shape of clouds )---> reveals strength or weakness -relative--> changing behavior.

But very little in drawing various "magic ratios" ( the shapes we think we see / would like to see , *in* clouds )-- a nice quote on seeing such shapes  in Talebs Fooled by randomness and the peril of doing so.


motorway


----------



## OzWaveGuy (11 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoates said:


> Ummm. But with the Shanghai index, the value more than tripled over the space of a couple of years. I think that events were unique to cause the value of the index to triple.




The interesting point to note on the shanghai index is: Back in November in 2007, If anyone had stood up and said the index would be 70% lower within a year, they would have been laughed off the planet.

And the fundamental analysts would have said - there's simply no fundamental reason for such a large decline (a correction of some sort - perhaps). Now that's it has happened - what were the fundamentals that drove it down hard so quickly - anyone? Considering the mainstream financial media and analysts of all sorts kept saying strong demand from china or strong domestic demand in china.

The best fundamental analysis I've seen is to try to match a set of  fundamentals to the actual market action. The same way the financial media match the headline to the market. It can be seen time after time.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (11 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Off my fundamental soapbox 

As for XAO, One more small decline to approx 3850 should finish off wave d down on the wave 4 triangle. This would leave a small leg up (wave e) to finish off the structure at around 4100 - 4200. Once completed in the next several days, the ride down to around 3250 will be underway.


----------



## frenzel (11 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

During the great depression, stocks in the US dropped around 80%.  It didn't happen in the first year, but took 3 years to do this.  There is a definite precedent for this happening, and the current crisis has been likened to the depression in many ways.  

Is 1500 points likely?  I hope not as 20%+ unemployment is not something I would like to deal with.  But it is not impossible.  History has been there before.

I posted this link somewhere else before, but it shows the basic Dow chart during those years, but more interestingly some quotes from those of the time.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html


----------



## chops_a_must (11 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> The interesting point to note on the shanghai index is: Back in November in 2007, If anyone had stood up and said the index would be 70% lower within a year, they would have been laughed off the planet.



Not really.

I remember talking to Magdoran about it clearly being in a bubble and the likely outcomes.

And that was much much earlier than November 07.


----------



## davo8 (11 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



frenzel said:


> During the great depression, stocks in the US dropped around 80%.  It didn't happen in the first year, but took 3 years to do this.  There is a definite precedent for this happening, and the current crisis has been likened to the depression in many ways.
> 
> Is 1500 points likely?  I hope not as 20%+ unemployment is not something I would like to deal with.  But it is not impossible.  History has been there before.




No. Absolutely not. If the XAO was tracking the DOW it would have gone from under 1000 to nearly 7000 in just 5 years. Given that kind of bubble, a crash is possible. Without it, absolutely not.

In recent times the NASDAQ and Shanghai indexes have done something similar: bubble and crash, but not here. The XAO can go to low 3000s and it can stay there for years, but short of total meltdown to reach half that is impossible.

BTW I wish it would. A safe dividend yield of 20% sounds pretty good to me.


----------



## skyQuake (11 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Just in case there are others who don't know what a BlackBox is
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yeh don't go too deep into it, its a useful too. Just do simple time and price retractments; Maybe some fib fans... But if you delve in too deep looking for order in chaos you'll go mad!

-------------------------------------------------------------


On another note, Today pretty much confirmed failure, and retest failure of trendline from 1992-03-now


----------



## GreatPig (11 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just posted this on another forum. It's the XAO going back to 1875 (click on the attachment to get a larger image).

The black trend line was already on the chart, and I added the blue one, which I think is a better fit (making everything since the late 1970s pretty much part of an above-average bull run).

The time scale seems to be out a bit though, as it puts the recent high in late 2006 when in fact it was in late 2007.

GP


----------



## frenzel (11 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> The XAO can go to low 3000s and it can stay there for years, but short of total meltdown to reach half that is impossible.




Sorry, but my point is that nothing is impossible.  Who's to say that we are not in the midst of a global meltdown.  In fact, I'd argue that we are in the midst of a global meltdown.  If you'd looked at the link I posted, you would have seen similar quotes of enduring optimism whilst sitting on the decks of the titanic.  Again, it has happened before, it CAN happen again.  

Australia was actually one of the worst affected nations during the depression on the back of our wheat and wool exports at the time being completely destroyed.  Worth a read.
Now we may have changed to iron ore and whatever resource we can eak out of the ground.  Not too much has changed in our global position.  Again I don't want to see the worst, but to say that something is impossible, is to have total disregard of history.


----------



## stoxclimber (11 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> The interesting point to note on the shanghai index is: Back in November in 2007, If anyone had stood up and said the index would be 70% lower within a year, they would have been laughed off the planet.





No they wouldn't have been. Numerous commentators thought the Shanghai market was ridiculously priced - there's a reason why its called 'the casino' and ridiculously out of whack with the same equities listed on the HK market.

I wonder if your 1500 call is an armchair call or if you actually have significant money riding on this. It's a remarkable prediction so if you actually believed in it being probable you could make some serious money if it came true.


----------



## GreatPig (11 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A slight correction to my last post, since I can't edit it now: I believe the black trend line was placed on the chart by the original poster, using an exponential trend line (effectively linear regression) in Excel.

GP


----------



## chops_a_must (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What's interesting is that the financials have virtually led the markets down in each leg. They look to be moving through support now.

And most of the downside targets appear to be about 15-20% away from the current prices which also lines up with some of the downside targets on the XAO.


----------



## wavepicker (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Given all the gloom and doom on this thread a quick silly question. Has anyone been doing any buying lately?

Without going into any details and specifics of charts and analysis, to me the 10th October low in the DJIA and SP500 was quite significant.(At least for the last major leg down) I opened up some longs some weeks ago and have been  using major retests to add a little more.

Time will tell if I am right or wrong. Knowing this could only be a 4th wave of sorts and i could be wrong, stops need to be kept very tight at the low sections of the retest lows.


----------



## tech/a (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Only on a very short term basis.
I can only remember a few overnight holds in the last few months.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

IMO......... bounce due , trading accordingly , entrys on ANZ , MGX and in queue for anotherie , ALL low % loss on stoploss points ( one intends ) ... not a suggestion just pointin outr my guesstimations on the matter 

avaniceday


----------



## sinner (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> Given all the gloom and doom on this thread a quick silly question. Has anyone been doing any buying lately?
> 
> Without going into any details and specifics of charts and analysis, to me the 10th October low in the DJIA and SP500 was quite significant.(At least for the last major leg down) I opened up some longs some weeks ago and have been  using major retests to add a little more.
> 
> Time will tell if I am right or wrong. Knowing this could only be a 4th wave of sorts and i could be wrong, stops need to be kept very tight at the low sections of the retest lows.




Jumped in on ORG, IGR and OEL on the 31st Oct and jumped out of OEL and ORG yesterday just before market close. Was only really looking to recoup some previous losses in WPL and RIO so as soon as I put a dent in that I was back out.


----------



## gav (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OK, who wants to take a stab at where the XAO will finish today?  My guess is 3847


----------



## KFC soup (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

think we might finish in the green today


----------



## drsmith (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Up.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well m y guess has cash behind it , refer to post before by me


----------



## korrupt_1 (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

was long on the open
closed half already
trailing atm


----------



## OzWaveGuy (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> As for XAO, One more small decline to approx 3850 should finish off wave d down on the wave 4 triangle. This would leave a small leg up (wave e) to finish off the structure at around 4100 - 4200. Once completed in the next several days, the ride down to around 3250 will be underway.




The XAO approached the 3850 mark today (3858) but the wave structure still looks incomplete. A further decline may occur tomorrow, but the closing wave structure today also supports the start of the next leg up in the wave 4 triangle into the 4100-4200 target area. 

If a further decline occurs on the XAO in the coming days then 3750 could be the approximate target area.


----------



## wavepicker (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> If a further decline occurs on the XAO in the coming days then 3750 could be the approximate target area.




Agreed Ozwaveguy,  3750 looks better for this triangle to be in proportion here, if it does not get down that far, then the triangle scenario might be in question.

ATM wave d might looks to be a touch shallow, and the index looks like it might rally if it breaks above 4200. Either way, we should know by early next week. Today marked a minor cycle low. The next minor cycle high is not till 18/19th Nov.

So really at present it's a matter of triangulating the triangle!!


----------



## wavepicker (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This has little to do with the XAO and relates to the DJIA, but  thought I would post it here anyway:-

A quick comparison between crash lows in 1929 and now. I wouldn't put my money on it. It seems too circumstantial, but it does oddly enough though support the bullish stance. 

What is the conclusion for the chart below? Well, IF you believe it has any merit (and that can arguably be a big IF), then we are about to embark on another leg up. 

Maybe tonight will give more clarity on this issue.


----------



## Gundini (12 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> was long on the open
> closed half already
> trailing atm




Luv ya work!

Take profit, let the rest ride...

Was thinking about doing similar myself!


----------



## davo8 (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Just posted this on another forum. It's the XAO going back to 1875 (click on the attachment to get a larger image).
> 
> The black trend line was already on the chart, and I added the blue one, which I think is a better fit (making everything since the late 1970s pretty much part of an above-average bull run).




As I frequently point out, that trend was broken forever by high inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. See here, showing how the trend has shifted.

You either need to correct for CPI, or (better) look at the ratio of All Ords to GDP. See here.

We have clearly been above trend (although not as far as 1987), but anything below 4000 is already approaching historical lows.


----------



## tech/a (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That ridiculous figure of 1500 seems more likely every day.

The next interest drop likely to be another 1% is unprecedented in my time,such huge drops in such a short time.

It appears to me that world financial experts are struggling to control the downward spiral.
There is another summit days away,as they struggle to keep ahead of this.

Not all are going to be "saved" the US and the Aussie car markets are under threat.
Highly likely that the "bottom" isn't in and wont be for sometime.

A market best avoided as we can only be on the long side.
Those accumulating "Bargains" maybe bitterly disappointed as time is likely to re value many.


----------



## CamKawa (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> A market best avoided as we can only be on the long side.



I agree but not for much longer.

"ASIC today said it would extend the ban on covered short selling for non-financial securities for a further 28 days until 18 November 2008, when it expected the ban would be lifted."

Source: http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.ns...nds+ban+on+covered+short+selling?openDocument


----------



## nunthewiser (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> IMO......... bounce due , trading accordingly , entrys on ANZ , MGX and in queue for anotherie , ALL low % loss on stoploss points ( one intends ) ... not a suggestion just pointin outr my guesstimations on the matter
> 
> avaniceday




ooops


----------



## tech/a (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> I agree but not for much longer.
> 
> "ASIC today said it would extend the ban on covered short selling for non-financial securities for a further 28 days until 18 November 2008, when it expected the ban would be lifted."
> 
> Source: http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.ns...nds+ban+on+covered+short+selling?openDocument




Dont be suprised if there is another extension.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> ooops




Nun, You may have been 1 day early in your call for a bounce. Let's see where the XAO goes today after this mornings declines.


----------



## nunthewiser (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Nun, You may have been 1 day early in your call for a bounce. Let's see where the XAO goes today after this mornings declines.




yeah m8 , cheers

will see if stops are hit , no intention of acting on the usual market open auction panic


----------



## chops_a_must (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> The next interest drop likely to be another 1% is unprecedented in my time,such huge drops in such a short time.



91, 92?



tech/a said:


> A market best avoided as we can only be on the long side.
> Those accumulating "Bargains" maybe bitterly disappointed as time is likely to re value many.



You have IB don't you Tech? 

I've been trading long the Australian market, and only going short in the US. It's worked thus far. Only have 1 long to get out of here.


OzWaveGuy said:


> Nun, You may have been 1 day early in your call for a bounce. Let's see where the XAO goes today after this mornings declines.



Yes, that's it. Allow your losers to run in a highly volatile market in the hope that your analysis is right.


----------



## chops_a_must (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> yeah m8 , cheers
> 
> will see if stops are hit , no intention of acting on the usual market open auction panic




And be careful with the afternoon forced selling. That's likely to start up again on this move down I would assume.


----------



## nunthewiser (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Yes, that's it. Allow your losers to run in a highly volatile market in the hope that your analysis is right.




no my stops are my planned stops from trade entry , no intention of following anything down regardless of direction after percieved , also not in the habit of joining the other panicers on auction / early open either 

this trade is like any other trade and dealt with accordingly . i stop out , so be it , i re-enter so be it , doesent hit my stops so be it.


----------



## nunthewiser (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> And be careful with the afternoon forced selling. That's likely to start up again on this move down I would assume.




yes always a factor when supports are broken , margin call times in the arvo aint it ? dunno .. just what i hear from round the traps , never had one

oh and cheers for thoughts


----------



## chops_a_must (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> no my stops are my planned stops from trade entry , no intention of following anything down regardless of direction after percieved , also not in the habit of joining the other panicers on auction / early open either
> 
> this trade is like any other trade and dealt with accordingly . i stop out , so be it , i re-enter so be it , doesent hit my stops so be it.




As it should be.


----------



## chops_a_must (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> yes always a factor when supports are broken , margin call times in the arvo aint it ? dunno .. just what i hear from round the traps , never had one
> 
> oh and cheers for thoughts




I think at 2, 230 eastern time is when they start hitting the market. TH put that up at some time.


----------



## captain black (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

[The short selling ban]


tech/a said:


> Dont be suprised if there is another extension.




Don't want to hijack the thread but it appears ASIC are still intending to lift the ban on non-financials on Nov. 19.

http://www.asic.gov.au/ASIC/asic.ns...hort sales from 19 November 2008?opendocument


----------



## korrupt_1 (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ok... long on the open... with ears pinned back.. :

lets see where this will go...


----------



## Aussiejeff (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> ok... long on the open... with ears pinned back.. :
> 
> lets see where this will go...




***sniff*** ??

Smells like a Big Beef B-B-Q!!!


----------



## korrupt_1 (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> ***sniff*** ??
> 
> Smells like a Big Beef B-B-Q!!!




lol... perhaps, but as buffet has said... be fearful when are others are brave... and be brave when others are fearful... today is the time to be brave... (or some may think... foolish...


----------



## sinner (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nov 14 (Nov 15 AEST) is the last day for redemption calls this year to hedge funds in the US, so there will hopefully be some reprieve then. I have a bad feeling that the hedge fund deleveraging has put a stick into the spokes of the yen carry trade that cannot be stopped now.


----------



## Aussiejeff (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> lol... perhaps, but as buffet has said... be fearful when are others are brave... and be brave when others are fearful... today is the time to be brave... (or some may think... foolish...




Yeah.

I'm sure when he was bravely supporting the Fed with those brave remarks of his, someone jokingly whispered in the wings "or, be smart when others are stoopid..." LOL 

Enjoy the B-B-Q!

aj


----------



## nunthewiser (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well wasnt that an intresting day............ anyone buy any longs today ?


----------



## tech/a (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

New low by a few points low now tested.

Looks very weak.
If your buying longs now your guessing/maverick.


----------



## nunthewiser (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> New low by a few points low now tested.
> 
> Looks very weak.
> If your buying longs now your guessing/maverick.




nah , no buying longs here , stopped out of trades 10 mins after open , loss AT stoploss points already factored , just inquisitive if any viewed today as a buying op and yeah agree on your call re weak


----------



## Spek (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

New low.  Cant wait for short ban to be lifted.


----------



## saiter (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I see another 200-400 point drop before we get a bounce sometime next tuesday/wednesday. However, short selling will be allowed then so maybe not


----------



## sammy84 (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Dow Jone's October lows haven't been breached yet. I have been using their bottom as an indicator to buy as I figured as the problem started in US in will ultimately end in the US. So I am backing on a bounce tonight or for it to remain steady tonight. Is there any sense in this? It has worked so far, however I this doesn't mean I think it is right.


----------



## nunthewiser (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> I think at 2, 230 eastern time is when they start hitting the market. TH put that up at some time.




i have been informed that margin calls come at any time of day, even in the evenings when u think you are safe apparently.

certainly feeling for those in that position lately


----------



## wavepicker (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For those interested in Fib time analysis(tech?- Greenblatt stuff), the following chart may or may not be significant.

The 21st of March 2008(this is a well known Gann date)  marked a major low in the All Ords with a rally back up to 6000 starting after that day. It also marked 144 Fibonacci calendar days and 21 fibonacci weeks down from the peak. Coincidence?

Today marks 377 fibonacci calendar days and 55 fibonacci weeks down from the peak. Will this be significant? Well not sure, but market took one hell of a smashing today


----------



## cutz (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Spek said:


> New low.  Cant wait for short ban to be lifted.




Yeah, why's that.


----------



## saiter (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> The Dow Jone's October lows haven't been breached yet. I have been using their bottom as an indicator to buy as I figured as the problem started in US in will ultimately end in the US. So I am backing on a bounce tonight or for it to remain steady tonight. Is there any sense in this? It has worked so far, however I this doesn't mean I think it is right.




I've been doing the same thing as the XAO seems to have been following the DJI over the past few weeks. However, I think that the DJI still has to lose ~700 points before it starts to trend upwards again.


----------



## tech/a (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> The Dow Jone's October lows haven't been breached yet. I have been using their bottom as an indicator to buy as I figured as the problem started in US in will ultimately end in the US. So I am backing on a bounce tonight or for it to remain steady tonight. Is there any sense in this? It has worked so far, however I this doesn't mean I think it is right.




Well tonight we will see if it holds (testing the low).
Current futures while slightly down dont at this point indicate further sell off at least tonight.
This could alter as the European Markets open.

I certainly dont expect it to fall to the floor in one move.
There will be sucker rallies.


----------



## wavepicker (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The 1 hr chart indicates a completed impulse down from the 5th of November. So if anything we are setting about for a small bounce here. The question however is, is this wave 1 of a larger 5th wave decline to come in the weeks ahead or are we reaching a support level?


----------



## nunthewiser (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

data to be released in the US tonight: MBA Purchase Applications (wk11/7 , 2008) Nov 13 Jobless Claims (wk11/8 , 2008) Nov 13 International Trade (Sep , 2008) Nov 13 RBC CASH Index (Nov , 2008) Nov 13 EIA Petroleum Status Report (wk11/7 , 2008) Nov 13 Treasury Budget (Oct , 2008) Nov 13 Money Supply (wk11/3 , 2008)


----------



## korrupt_1 (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> New low by a few points low now tested.
> 
> Looks very weak.
> If your buying longs now your guessing/maverick.




i was long on the open... almost hit my SL... unfortunately, it never hit my TP target, so I closed for more or less break even... (5 points for the trouble)  but hardly worth the effort... strategy was trying to trade the gap...

yes, totally agree with you, shorts are the go... pretty much short on any rallies is where the smart money is....


----------



## KFC soup (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well the triangle is now complete.
might get a rally before g20
shanghai/shenzhen index is up more than 3% what's going on there?
more bad earning/data could see it drop though


----------



## tech/a (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like a positive night and a double bottom for us.
Even so.
To take longs today is still punting in my view.


----------



## wavepicker (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not exactly convinced we are gonna get much follow through from this 5th wave just yet. Pattern of trend might indicate we had a false break today. And fast moves in the opposite direction have a habit of coming from false breaks.

Also we finished on a low which could spell trouble for the short term continuation of the fast move we had down this week.

Cycle point analysis shows three cycle point lows in a row completed this week. This study is the time based equivalent of a five wave structure.

Shorts might need to keep stops very tight IMO.


----------



## tech/a (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And with a 100pt swing in the futures within an hr and a half.-------
And Europe opening pretty badly perhaps all aint rosy tommorow.


----------



## cbacamden (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I really hope you guys are right 

I have generally done ok over the last 7 odd years - but this is continued down run is really testing me.

Will see tomorrow


----------



## OzWaveGuy (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Like many, I was surprised by the push to new lows today and the wave 4 triangle formation would now be considered complete as of the high reached on Monday even though I was expecting a more symmetrical triangle to take shape over a longer period of time. Either way - a triangle with five 3 wave legs is complete.

The next leg down needs to be considered. Although we hit new lows today, the final wave 5 doesn't look complete from the end of wave e. Some possible targets are discussed below. Either we'll see five waves down or a ending diagonal that may be more complex to identify.

Because wave 1 was extended, the upwards correction after wave 5 completes could be swift and take the index back to the top of the triangle (wave a) or even higher. 

It should also be noted that the completion of wave 5 will also complete the alternative count which would see an end to the current declines and carry the index higher or into a more complex correction that will take some time to complete. 

The alternative count becomes invalid should the completed wave 5 low be broken after the impending correction completes - hence 1500 would then be squarely on the cards.


----------



## saiter (13 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I agree with Oz's 3428 target. This happens to be a resistance-turned-support from the 2001-2002 double top formation. I don't agree with the XAO going to 1500 if the count is wrong, as there are 2 more supports that it would have to crack through (see below)


----------



## M34N (14 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well we just tested the 2008 lows just 1 1/2 hours ago and -300 on the Dow, now it's +120 points. So the lows held, who wants to call the beginning of another rally?

Personally I feel we could get a nice bounce soon, even if it's too early to speculate, but the falls in the past few days were pretty hefty and probably overdone in the short term. Still remain long-term bearish though and agree with others about hitting new lows, just not yet.

EDIT: too slow for me to realise, Dow now +211


----------



## nunthewiser (14 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL well well well i sure am getting good at this one day out stuff

cheers ozwaveguy


----------



## prgudula (14 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

very good ending

DOW       8835.25  552.59 +6.67%
NASDAQ    1596.7    97.49 +6.5%
S&P 500    911.29    58.99 +6.92%

hope to recover some loss till next wave down..


----------



## CamKawa (14 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The DOW was 8000 at 1:00pm then closed 835 points higher. Fark me.  The share market isn't anything more than a casino. I'm staying away.


----------



## nunthewiser (14 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> The DOW was 8000 at 1:00pm then closed 835 points higher. Fark me.  The share market isn't anything more than a casino. I'm staying away.




happened like this , this time last week , all the bad data ignored and produced a rally,

blessem


----------



## M34N (14 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well that was expected, but unexpected, if that makes sense 

Nice strong close, should be good for the markets here today, all metals up.

Good for the short term trades, think BHP or one of the battered banks may be a good trade today.


----------



## nunthewiser (14 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i THINK most of the gains will be on open as normal with the odd exception but will be plenty of ops for a nice scalp here and there


----------



## Whiskers (14 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Well we just tested the 2008 lows just 1 1/2 hours ago and -300 on the Dow, now it's +120 points. So the lows held, who wants to call the beginning of another rally?
> 
> Personally I feel we could get a nice bounce soon, even if it's too early to speculate, but the falls in the past few days were pretty hefty and probably overdone in the short term. Still remain long-term bearish though and agree with others about hitting new lows, just not yet.
> 
> EDIT: too slow for me to realise, Dow now +211






CamKawa said:


> The DOW was 8000 at 1:00pm then closed 835 points higher. Fark me.  The share market isn't anything more than a casino. I'm staying away.




It's the Morning Star... I tell ya, the Mornin Star has shown the way. 

Yer gotta trust yer stars.


----------



## cbacamden (17 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OK - whats happening tomorrow?


----------



## saiter (17 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cbacamden said:


> OK - whats happening tomorrow?




I think it's going to continue on down to ~3400 before we have a true bounce sometime this week.


----------



## cbacamden (17 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think your right about down tomorrow - hope so anyway.

Down tomorrow


----------



## OzWaveGuy (17 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sounds like I might be out-gunned on tomorrow's XAO prediction. The very short term wave count is calling for an imminent bounce or maybe one more minor low before the retracement starts. This would complete wave 1 down, and wave 2 should retrace back up to 3800 or slightly higher, before the downtrend resumes.

However, there seems to be a distinct lack of price support at the current levels except:

1) on the linear chart we have retraced almost exactly 76.8% of the leg up from the March 2003 lows, and
2) We are in the vicinity of a long term trend line from the early 1990s

So perhaps a little sideways action could eventuate.


----------



## nunthewiser (17 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Sounds like I might be out-gunned on tomorrow's XAO prediction. The very short term wave count is calling for an imminent bounce or maybe one more minor low before the retracement starts. This would complete wave 1 down, and wave 2 should retrace back up to 3800 or slightly higher, before the downtrend resumes.
> 
> However, there seems to be a distinct lack of price support at the current levels except:
> 
> ...




 i think you covered all 3 scenarious there OZwaveguy


----------



## OzWaveGuy (17 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> i think you covered all 3 scenarious there OZwaveguy




At the current juncture the rules indicate "something will happen" 

Of course a small bounce would do nicely as well.


----------



## nunthewiser (17 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> At the current juncture the rules indicate "something will happen"
> 
> Of course a small bounce would do nicely as well.




Yep and my rules dictate .."when in doubt stay out"

got no signals or probabilities in any direction for tommorow for me , happy to watch


----------



## sniperdog (17 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

3600 seems like a good solid floor. I think a good bounce is well overdue.


----------



## Boggo (17 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Yep and my rules dictate .."when in doubt stay out"




Nah, go with the rule from my motocross days... "when in doubt go flat out"

Perhaps a more appropriate comment from those days would be... "when the green flag drops the bull$hit stops"

My green flag is still around the 3200 area !


----------



## tech/a (17 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> My green flag is still around the 3200 area !




Been touted for months.
Thats where I'll be looking as well.
Better stop their or Waves will look like a genuis at 1500!


----------



## OzWaveGuy (17 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Been touted for months.
> Thats where I'll be looking as well.
> Better stop their or Waves will look like a genuis at 1500!




Nah, there's going to be a reasonable bounce coming (as many suggest) and several larger ones down the track - 1500 is way off, plenty up/down opps between now and then


----------



## saiter (18 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All Ords trying to push through 3600 as we speak!


----------



## Boggo (18 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like a bounce off 3530 area (APP of 1.272), next area is around 3320 perhaps after a little sucker run up.

My 

.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (18 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Based on the market action over the last 2 days, 3350 is an approx downside target that could have some significance, assuming:

1) a small wave 4 bounce to around 3600 occurs shortly
2) wave 5 will = wave 1 (about 250 points)
3) therefore end of wave 5 = approx 3350 (or wave 5 target = 61% of wave 1 = approx 3448)

chart --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=363371&postcount=157

As the count unfolds a more accurate assessment should come to hand


----------



## Broadway (18 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think we just hit a short term bottom, spi 3500.

Over the next few days heading back up for a while.

Gutsy call I know.

We'll see.


----------



## jackson8 (18 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

just an observation and i probably am missing something,   but seeing as our xoa closely mirrors the usa dow would analysis of the dow take precedence as to what may happen here, as it seems to trigger events in our own market

just trying to understand this aspect of the markets


----------



## saiter (18 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I've been doing this for the past fortnight and it seems to be that the XAO will always follow the DJIA.
However, considering that the DJIA has ~600 points to lose before it bounces (IMO), then the XAO is going to be slightly past the support at 3450. Hopefully the DJIA will fall quickly so that the bounce can happen sometime this week


----------



## chops_a_must (18 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What are you guys prattling on about?

The DJIA isn't at new lows.


----------



## korrupt_1 (18 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jackson8 said:


> just an observation and i probably am missing something,   but seeing as our xoa closely mirrors the usa dow would analysis of the dow take precedence as to what may happen here, as it seems to trigger events in our own market
> 
> just trying to understand this aspect of the markets




yes... same comment has been made over 1000x on this forum... as much as we want to think, the markets are far from being decoupled...

With PPI data out in the US tonight and with the forecast being a shocker.... DJ's heading lower if forecast comes in accurate. SPI futures are down about 50pts already and well below this psychological 3500...


----------



## brty (18 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi,



> I've been doing this for the past fortnight and it seems to be that the XAO will always follow the DJIA.




I'm gobsmacked at the experience behind that post.

Can I have your autograph.

This is a capitulation phase when the falls of the market make no sense and seem never ending.

brty


----------



## KFC soup (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> With PPI data out in the US tonight and with the forecast being a shocker.... DJ's heading lower if forecast comes in accurate. SPI futures are down about 50pts already and well below this psychological 3500...




if the past weeks have taught me anything it's that the close is almost always the opposite to the future movement before open. maybe only during a market turmoil lol


----------



## saiter (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> Hi,
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Why certainly! _*Saiter*_

Give a newbie a chance


----------



## Spek (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Transfield suspended almost a week now.  

Could this figure from Comsec be correct? 

"Debt/Equity ratio	95.8%"


----------



## Spek (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



KFC soup said:


> if the past weeks have taught me anything it's that the close is almost always the opposite to the future movement before open. maybe only during a market turmoil lol




Ive notices that when black comes up on roulette a few times red usually comes in a few spins.  Not sure I could make a living out of it though.


----------



## tech/a (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Short sellers have had an impact on today.

Good time to go laze around a few Islands.
See you all 1/12
Enjoy!


----------



## Sean K (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Short sellers have had an impact on today.
> 
> Good time to go laze around a few Islands.
> See you all 1/12
> Enjoy!



Hitting _my_ support around 3400.

I'm not game to buy .....


----------



## jono_oz (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Short selling is good for the economy ..... blah blah bull ****! The only thing its good for is the short sellers.


----------



## sails (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jono_oz said:


> Short selling is good for the economy ..... blah blah bull ****! The only thing its good for is the short sellers.




At least we might get some decent dead cat bounces now - great for swing trading...


----------



## prawn_86 (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jono_oz said:


> Short selling is good for the economy ..... blah blah bull ****! The only thing its good for is the short sellers.




Cause the ban made a heap of difference didnt it...


----------



## Aussiejeff (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sails said:


> At least we might get some decent dead cat bounces now - great for swing trading...




Stuff the bounces.

I want to see a real dead cat. 


aj


----------



## chops_a_must (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jono_oz said:


> Short selling is good for the economy ..... blah blah bull ****! The only thing its good for is the short sellers.




So... how many listed companies went belly up when there was no short selling? 

Come on... I'll look forward to any more short selling arguments.


----------



## rico01 (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I never ever thought we could go this low but hopefully these previous peaks in 01 & 02 will act as  asome sorta support


----------



## nick2fish (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oh well the Financials are doing okay today.....
Oh thats right there is still a shorting ban on them 

Hey Prawn... how much worst it could have been with those hedge fund vultures running amok in the second biggest market correction in history (and still haven't hit bottom yet) 

Thankfully we will never know


----------



## prawn_86 (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How can, after a 2 month downtrend when shorting was banned, people still blame short sellers the day after the ban is lifted  Talk about heads in the sand.

I agree with Waynes comments, lets ban buying too so then prices are not affected by 'evil pressures' on the upside


----------



## nick2fish (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

lol.... I'd be happy with that No selling No buying  
Yeah lets all go and hibernate for about a year 
C ya next spring
(Insanity feels good, hope its permanent)


----------



## $20shoes (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, my inverted H&S now looks more like a broadening formation. (I keep looking for that positive development, but I do feel like I'm Ali playing Rope-A-Dope against Foreman right now).

Would need to hold at 3400. With respect to the 55 day Bollinger Bands (green) we would have a "relative" higher low, so long as the price doesn't traverse down to touch this band. It is a piece of evidence to suggest a rally might ensue.


----------



## AzzaB80 (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jono_oz said:


> Short selling is good for the economy ..... blah blah bull ****! The only thing its good for is the short sellers.




I don't get it ASX200 only down 0.6% after short selling ban lifted and the ignorant still blame the shorters. 

No wonder most people lose money in markets. They don't understand them


----------



## MrBurns (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This might interest some of you  - from Crikey today -





> Selling the effects of short selling short
> 
> 
> While many intelligent and respected business people blamed short-selling for their company’s ills, it appears that short-selling did not have a negative effect on share prices -- arguably, recent market falls have been exacerbated by the ban (which resulted in reduced liquidity). Since 21 September 2008, when ASIC, prompted by Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan, banned short-selling, the All Ordinaries was trading at 4,840. Yesterday it closed at 3,513 -- a drop of 27% in less than two months.
> ...


----------



## AzzaB80 (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nick2fish said:


> Oh well the Financials are doing okay today.....
> Oh thats right there is still a shorting ban on them
> 
> Hey Prawn... how much worst it could have been with those hedge fund vultures running amok in the second biggest market correction in history (and still haven't hit bottom yet)
> ...




And think of the rally we would've had when they had to cover, might have even encouraged some new buying too


----------



## chops_a_must (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



AzzaB80 said:


> And think of the rally we would've had when they had to cover, might have even encouraged some new buying too




Probably a reason the US has faired better than us.

They are actually able to hedge if they want to do some buying...


----------



## nick2fish (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



AzzaB80 said:


> And think of the rally we would've had when they had to cover, might have even encouraged some new buying too




Ok then we should have a covering rally soonish then...good news. 
Should be an interesting day 2morrow,depending on the Dow of course.

 I do feel XOA has factored in much of the downside and 3400 might hold and provide some support towards the upside

However the Dow has no right to post a gain tonite so I wonder if 3200 will be the next stop?


----------



## >Apocalypto< (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

a close under 3500 

who's for 3000????


----------



## chops_a_must (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> a close under 3500
> 
> who's for 3000????




2800 at least I reckon.


----------



## M34N (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> a close under 3500
> 
> who's for 3000????




I never thought a year ago we would get this low, so I wouldn't be surprised. I'm just shocked at how our market has managed to persist in going down despite the Dow being up, this has happened on numerous occasions lately. I believe last Thursday the Dow was up some 550 or 6% and our market could only maintain a 1.5% gain, then when the Dow lost 300 or roughly 3% the next night we lost all of those previous gains, then some.

Maybe this is that 'unrelenting selling' some people have been talking about.


----------



## chops_a_must (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> I never thought a year ago we would get this low, so I wouldn't be surprised. I'm just shocked at how our market has managed to persist in going down despite the Dow being up, this has happened on numerous occasions lately. I believe last Thursday the Dow was up some 550 or 6% and our market could only maintain a 1.5% gain, then when the Dow lost 300 or roughly 3% the next night we lost all of those previous gains, then some.
> 
> Maybe this is that 'unrelenting selling' some people have been talking about.



You could look at it this way. Why on Earth would you want to put money into Australia?

Before the mining and debt boom, structurally, our economy was rat****. And apart from mining and energy, it still is isn't it?

What has actually changed in that period? Did our government that was in power over that time reinvest the money to correct those long term structural problems, or did they actually, in real terms, reduce the investment into the sectors (education especially) that would free us from this old world economy problem?

What do we honestly offer apart from our dirt? 

So why should we be holding onto our gains when the US hasn't, in that same period?


----------



## explod (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Maybe this is that 'unrelenting selling' some people have been talking about.




Blame it on the bottom pickers.   They think they got it then the sellers that were bottom the day before sell and drive it down, so the next day todays bottom sellers hit thier stops and sell to tomorrows bottom pickers and so on.  Are ya with me.

Of course what we want is some good old consolidation over a period of 6 months.   What we are getting is an erratic downtrend that is scaring the bejesus out of everyone.   That's the technical.

Fundamentally 

there is no good news, its all bad and sounding worse each day.  I'm not qualified to give advice but if I were I'd tell averyone I know to get the hell out of it till it looks like going up strong and that could be years away.

Just MVHO as always


----------



## skyQuake (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, this unrelenting selling has had a few good drivers in the last few days.

1. New lows on the XJO cash close last thurs made by some considerate futures selling. That made sure the funds would bail out/stop buying, and dump any recently accumulations...

2. Traders pre-empting the start of the short selling ban...

--------------
Think we should see some real buying soon. We came within 10points of the 50% retracement on the XJO, and pretty much bounced off the prv highs from ages back. Maybe a few hundred points in this leg up, then reassess. Doubt the lows can be formed so easily.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Blame it on the bottom pickers.   They think they got it then the sellers that were bottom the day before sell and drive it down, so the next day todays bottom sellers hit thier stops and sell to tomorrows bottom pickers and so on.  Are ya with me.
> 
> Of course what we want is some good old consolidation over a period of 6 months.   What we are getting is an erratic downtrend that is scaring the bejesus out of everyone.   That's the technical.
> 
> ...




Very very wise advice explod.

We need a trading range/consolidation for 6 to 24 mo before I would be game to call a halt to this bear market, then a nice breakout to the upside with a retracement to the top of the range to finish it off before heading north again.

Fundamentally "I couldn't give a damn" as Bogie said.

gg


----------



## nick2fish (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> What do we honestly offer apart from our dirt?
> 
> So why should we be holding onto our gains when the US hasn't, in that same period?




Your kidding aren't you 

What have we got apart from resources, technology, agriculture.

A developed exporting nation is what you have Chops and our once prosperous customer base is all f**ked up cause of those greedy smartarse Wall Street Geeks.

What we have is a banking system largely untouched by sub prime compared with other developed nations

What we have here is a much smarter bunch of investors than those dope heads on Wall Street, and so that is why we can;t match the Dow, not because this countries fundamentals are kaput.

What has America got now ....2/10s of F**k all
Cheers and thanks for winding me up...keeps the blood flowing


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Very very wise advice explod.
> 
> We need a trading range/consolidation for 6 to 24 mo before I would be game to call a halt to this bear market, then a nice breakout to the upside with a retracement to the top of the range to finish it off before heading north again.
> 
> ...




Frankly, my dear, I don`t give a damn. Clark Gable ... Gone with the Wind.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Frankly, my dear, I don`t give a damn. Clark Gable ... Gone with the Wind.




So what *did* Bogie say in Casablanca??

Mea culpa.

gg


----------



## MrBurns (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> So what *did* Bogie say in Casablanca??
> 
> Mea culpa.
> 
> gg




Here's lookin' at you kid -


----------



## Indie (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm pretty sure there will be even more bad news over the next 12 months than there has been up to now. I wouldn't have picked 3500 by this time although I guessed 2500 as a bottom when this started. The pace of the fall has been surprising. 

Since housing hasn't officially tanked yet and some are still dreaming of government bailouts I'd have to say we will move another 30-50% down from where we are now before we have a chance of bottoming. I agree with Explod that negative psychology has to be played right out now that it has set in. I think we won't see a bottom for at least 12 months.


----------



## nunthewiser (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

data out tonight in the US: MBA Purchase Applications (wk11/14 , 2008) Nov 19 Consumer Price Index (Oct , 2008) Nov 19 Housing Starts (Oct , 2008) Nov 19 EIA Petroleum Status Report (wk11/14 , 2008) Nov 19 FOMC Minutes (Oct , 2008)


----------



## Beej (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Here's lookin' at you kid -




Plus "Play it again, Sam"

Beej


----------



## Sunder (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Beej said:


> Plus "Play it again, Sam"
> 
> Beej




According to  20 to 1, the most misquoted movie phrase.

Apparently it's "Play it once, Sam, for old time's sake".

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=LNXB3jfFvJo


----------



## GreatPig (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"Play it again Sam" was the name of a movie by Woody Allen, based around Bogie and Casablanca.

GP


----------



## chops_a_must (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nick2fish said:


> Your kidding aren't you
> 
> What have we got apart from resources, technology, agriculture.
> 
> ...




Lol.

A developed exporting nation that can't crack a trade surplus in the country's greatest boom of all time? 

We have no (virtually no) technology base.

And we can't match the Dow because we can't generate our own income to match the outflows of foreign capital. We are a debtor nation at a time we should be exactly the opposite.


----------



## brty (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world she walks into mine"


----------



## OzWaveGuy (19 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Lol.
> 
> A developed exporting nation that can't crack a trade surplus in the country's greatest boom of all time?
> 
> ...




Interesting isn't it. With our skew to Finance and Mining - both of which will suffer deeply under a global contraction. Could mean a lot of problems here should the worst happen.


----------



## brty (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ilsa, "play it once, Sam, for old time's sake".

later
... Rick "you played it for her and you can play it for me"
     ....Sam "I don't think I can remember it"
     ....Rick " If she can stand it, I can. Play it!"

brty


----------



## nick2fish (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Lil.
> 
> A developed exporting nation that can't crack a trade surplus in the country's greatest boom of all time?
> 
> ...




The wheel will turn chops , stay tuned 

The bubble deflates ...overcontraction, then the next bubble begins

Till then sit tight and listen to Ice House

"Great Southern Land"


No tech base cause we have unsupportive govts so our tech advances get shipped overseas for development. 

Its going to be tough without strong customer demand for our products, but we do have a budget surplus and a growing world population will see our commodity strengths return
As for XOA down down to 3200 and lower probably 

Cheers


----------



## chops_a_must (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nick2fish said:


> The wheel will turn chops , stay tuned
> 
> The bubble deflates ...overcontraction, then the next bubble begins
> 
> ...



I'd rather listen to the Oils' "Dreamworld".

But what have we got from this current bubble? Absolutely jack, which is my point.



nick2fish said:


> No tech base cause we have unsupportive govts so our tech advances get shipped overseas for development.



Thanks for proving my point after disagreeing. 

But also because the tertiary system is so under funded, you would be nuts if you were talented and had a good idea that needed long term work, to stay here.



nick2fish said:


> Its going to be tough without strong customer demand for our products, but we do have a budget surplus and a growing world population will see our commodity strengths return



Lol.

I doubt we will get another commodities boom like this for another 30 years or so, but energy is yet to have its day in the sun.


----------



## mayk (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Major lows achieved during last night trading in New York. Will be a complete blood bath on ASX. I am guessing today might be the capitulation we were waiting for. We might see 3100-3200 today.

Watch out tall buildings


----------



## Aussiejeff (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mayk said:


> Major lows achieved during last night trading in New York. Will be a complete blood bath on ASX. I am guessing today might be the capitulation we were waiting for. We might see 3100-3200 today.
> 
> Watch out tall buildings




Trampoline sales should skyrocket.....


----------



## $20shoes (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mayk said:


> Major lows achieved during last night trading in New York. Will be a complete blood bath on ASX. I am guessing today might be the capitulation we were waiting for. We might see 3100-3200 today.
> 
> Watch out tall buildings




Agree. The broadening formation looks like being smashed through to the downside today, and will once again move down to the lower green band for another touch (Post #5754).


----------



## korrupt_1 (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

eeeeeek!!! 

nasty surprise this morning!! what happened overnight??!!!

is this a capitulation anyone??

my feel is that entering fresh shorts would be a risky intraday trade...

but... looking across the Asian markets... it's going to be bloody blood blooding blooded day!!

should buy stocks in blood...


----------



## mayk (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> eeeeeek!!!
> 
> nasty surprise this morning!! what happened overnight??!!!



This happened 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_slZDP2pjqs&refer=home


> Fed Saw Economy Shrinking Through Mid-2009 Last Month (Update1)
> 
> Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers last month predicted the U.S. economy will contract through the middle of 2009, with some prepared to lower interest rates further in response, a record of their meeting showed.




Our old friend deflation is back.  Apart from this the Citi bank is severely sick and so is Chrysler. Bush wants to cr*p on the economy before he leaves. 

So now who is ready for a rally


----------



## Aussiejeff (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mayk said:


> This happened
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_slZDP2pjqs&refer=home
> 
> 
> ...




*DING, DING*

"Bring out yer cats..... all DEAD cats ... NO bouncy cats....!!"

*DING, DING...*


----------



## Sean K (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> should buy stocks in blood...



CSL might go OK today...


----------



## >Apocalypto< (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nick2fish said:


> The wheel will turn chops , stay tuned
> 
> The bubble deflates ...overcontraction, then the next bubble begins
> 
> ...




I agree with chops,

take away wheat, wool and our dirt and really what do we have to offer the world?

Our currency is very popular as we are a stable country but when resources are in a heap and the usd is pushing even that is out the window.

yes have a great banking system minus ANZ and MAC subprime / model affected. so how can we market CBA and westpac to the world?

auto industry looks like it's on the brink..... due to overseas problems so that's out.

on top of that whenever we produce a world class scientist they go overseas as we don't pay them enough here.

we can't even make trains here. they are building 300 or something more trains for Melbourne but that went to Poland.

We're a primary resource producer that's it.

o no I forgot we have lots of Holden's sell  (getting cheaper by the day)


----------



## >Apocalypto< (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

one thing that is surprising me in some of the posts i am reading is that we're all looking for someone or some thing to blame for the selling.

correct me if i am wrong but arnt we in a bear market? so don't prices go down in bear markets? So based on that the market is acting in a normal behavior.

I understand that this is 99% due to America. but were we not in a 4 year bull that was just about the best we ever had. Don't normal bull markets last for 4 years or round abouts? So is this a normal pattern in the scheme of things. Bull Bear markets never last for ever. 

Is it the speed of the sell off that has caught us all by surprise?

Just trowing up some thoughts


----------



## Justthinkin (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"Is it the speed of the sell off that has caught us all by surprise?"

You might conclude that this is some 'normal' bull / bear market but my concern is that this round will have lasting implications. Of particular note is that the market turn was seeded by a lack of clear information (depth and quality of credit markets), it was pushed harder by mis-information (countless revisions of possible exposure by large 'respected' financial institutions) and diligently confused by governments bleating about intervention and incorrectly representing to the market that they can and will restore the world to wherever it was.
Fundemental to an orderly market is confidence... peoples confidence in their own positions as well as confidence in the market mechanisms. What's been revealed is a very fragile market place underpinned by facts which remain facts for about 3 seconds post the announcement. Babcock's recent behaviour is a good example.

The speed... who cares. Repeatedly undermining peoples confidence...that  will hurt for sometime!

Just my thoughts! Good luck today...


----------



## the bard (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Can we stick to XAO analysis, technical analysis, not other things. Ta


----------



## kotim (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Have a look at the market in 87-89 for whats going to happen with our stocks.

When the tide turns we are going to have a big rocket under our butts, for at least 40-50% gains on individual stocks until the fallout from the property market starts more seriously impacting upon the bottom line and then we will have more big falls.  Have a look a the bank stocks and what happened to them in 87-89.


----------



## Aussiejeff (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kotim said:


> Have a look at the market in 87-89 for whats going to happen with our stocks.
> 
> When the tide turns we are going to have a big rocket under our butts, for at least 40-50% gains on individual stocks until the fallout from the property market starts more seriously impacting upon the bottom line and then we will have more big falls.  Have a look a the bank stocks and what happened to them in 87-89.




At the risk of sounding like an automaton, IMO you cannot, I repeat, CANNOT compare what is happening now to what happened w-a-a-a-a-a-y back in 87-89. That is now ancient history. The whole world's economic and financial dynamics have changed drastically and IRREVOCABLY since then.

Everyday now, NEW history is being written - history that is falling outside the "expected historical norms" - a fact that seems hard for some to swallow. 

We are in uncharted waters and better get used to that idea for the conceivable future.

Have a great day.


aj


----------



## >Apocalypto< (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> At the risk of sounding like an automaton, IMO you cannot, I repeat, CANNOT compare what is happening now to what happened w-a-a-a-a-a-y back in 87-89. That is now ancient history. The whole world's economic and financial dynamics have changed drastically and IRREVOCABLY since then.
> 
> Everyday now, NEW history is being written - history that is falling outside the "expected historical norms" - a fact that seems hard for some to swallow.
> 
> ...




so true what is happening today is a totally different situation to the 87 crash...............


----------



## Aussiejeff (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> CSL might go OK today...




**BZZZZTTTT**

Wrong guess.

Try again...


----------



## Sean K (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> **BZZZZTTTT**
> 
> Wrong guess.
> 
> Try again...



There's nothing else selling blood that I know of.....


----------



## Aussiejeff (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> There's nothing else selling blood that I know of.....




HVN sells plasma?


----------



## Sean K (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> HVN sells plasma?



144 months interest free too! 

I'm in!!!


----------



## GreatPig (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> what is happening today is a totally different situation to the 87 crash



I agree, but I wouldn't say there's no precedent for it. If you look back far enough in history, meaning over a few thousand years, I believe there have been numerous instances of credit bubbles leading to economic collapse in various societies.

Different details of course, with different financial structures, but same big picture.

GP


----------



## sinner (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On the uncharted territory claim:

 Nov 17  	 The Stock Market is Not in "Uncharted Territory"  PF   - John Mauldin

http://www.safehaven.com/article-11861.htm

Take from it what you will.


----------



## MrBurns (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There has to be a bailout of GM soon - if there is big bounce, if there isn't an economic black hole with immense and tragic human consequences.


----------



## korrupt_1 (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



the bard said:


> Can we stick to XAO analysis, technical analysis, not other things. Ta




lol.. the bard... good luck trying to keep this thread on topic... 

in times like these, pointless chit chat is what keeps everyone sane...


----------



## korrupt_1 (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> ...If you look back far enough in history, meaning over a few thousand years, I believe there have been numerous instances of credit bubbles leading to economic collapse in various societies.




You meaning the Egyptian, Roman, Asian and Amazonian empires? that were very so wealthy then all of a sudden just disappeared?

I wonder if if this is the prelude to the collapse of the modern man.... won't it be funny, say in the year 3010, they dig up the ruins of the NY Stock exchange?


----------



## Sean K (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> Amazonian empires? that were very so wealthy then all of a sudden just disappeared?



Incas didn't have money. 

They just traded corn for potatos for rice for labour. 

Maybe that's where we're headed....


----------



## sinner (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Incas had plenty of forms of currency. Cacao beans are an important one I can think of off the top of my head, oh and you know...gold and silver...



> Atahualpa offered the Spaniards enough gold to fill the room he was imprisoned in, and twice that amount in silver, in order to be freed. The Incas fulfilled this ransom, but Pizarro refused to release the Inca. During Atahualpa's imprisonment Huascar was assassinated. The Spanish maintained it was at Atahualpa's orders, and this was one of the charges used against Atahualpa when the Spanish finally decided to put him to death, in August 1533.




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inca


----------



## Sean K (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sinner said:


> The Incas had plenty of forms of currency. Cacao beans are an important one I can think of off the top of my head, oh and you know...gold and silver...
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inca



But it wasn't their currency. It was pure despotism.

Sorry, off topic....


----------



## Aussiejeff (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> But it wasn't their currency. It was pure despotism.
> 
> Sorry, off topic....




Tch, tch...

Pointless chit-chat.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> I agree, but I wouldn't say there's no precedent for it. If you look back far enough in history, meaning over a few thousand years, I believe there have been numerous instances of credit bubbles leading to economic collapse in various societies.
> 
> Different details of course, with different financial structures, but same big picture.
> 
> GP




Hi GP,

I was thinking that this could be more likened to the great depression. 

I was not much older then 6 in the 87 crash but from what I gather it did not have a major impact on the average Joe. This is having a affect just like the depression did.

Cheers


----------



## amory (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sinner said:


> The Incas had plenty of forms of currency. Cacao beans are an important one I can think of off the top of my head, oh and you know...gold and silver...
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inca




oh yes, those were the days!  get your living heart torn out atop one of those quaint Inca pyramids or let the Spaniards burn you at the stake in the name of one religion or another.  great public spectacle either way.  what do they give us nowadays?  with luck, a bunch of sneaky suicide bombers.  no entertainment value there at all.

but to get back to technicalities:  an important lesson I've learnt in my travels, when you sell by way of profit-taking its a good idea not to reinvest straight away.  keep the money in your pocket for a day or two, until you see which way the wind is blowing.

profit-taking in this case, most likely would only apply to shorts.  but the rule applies generally just as well.  for instance this market could continue on down, or else it'll turn on a dime because long overdue.  making the wrong decision now could prove very costly.

the question, is the rubber band fully extended?  if so, it could bounce back hard.  not saying it will, but the risk is about 50/50.


----------



## Justthinkin (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The following is an extract from a new feed I receive...

All sectors down. ... The ASX 200 has dropped over 50% from its high and has dropped through the key 3490 technical support level – next support at 3163 points. If the market keeps falling at the current rate, it will hit zero in 22 days.

A sense of humour helps!

Cheers


----------



## Snakey (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sounds like a lot of fear in the air at the moment...Buffet - "be greedy when others are fearful"


Thought these charts would be better at home in this thread -
Any technical traders care to comment on the charts?


----------



## Whiskers (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Justthinkin said:


> The following is an extract from a new feed I receive...
> 
> All sectors down. ... The ASX 200 has dropped over 50% from its high and has dropped through the key 3490 technical support level – next support at 3163 points. If the market keeps falling at the current rate, it will hit zero in 22 days.
> 
> ...




Yeah, but those guys obviously don't read their stars... that 'Morning Star' is still in tact on the Dow which seems to be showing the way, mostly.


----------



## joeyjoejoe (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Snakey said:


> Sounds like a lot of fear in the air at the moment...Buffet - "be greedy when others are fearful"
> 
> 
> Thought these charts would be better at home in this thread -
> Any technical traders care to comment on the charts?




those pics bear quite a scary resemblance.

i guess it all depends on if you take a 12 year view or different.

the graph wouldnt help you if you started investing last year.

but well spotted.

the only bottom ive seen lately is - AFG until then......there always room to go lower... unfortunately


----------



## motorway (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sinner said:


> On the uncharted territory claim:
> 
> Nov 17  	 The Stock Market is Not in "Uncharted Territory"  PF   - John Mauldin
> 
> ...




Really worthwhile article

Thanks

motorway



> * A significant break of the October lows could prompt "weak" holders to abandon stocks, which would create a need for a sufficient discount for "strong" holders (mainly value-conscious investors) to purchase those shares.* Again, my impression is that in the event of a clear break of October's lows, 780 on the S&P 500 would most probably be where value-conscious investors would exhibit very strong demand.
> 
> As a side note, do your best to filter out comments like "investors are moving out of stocks and into ..." or "investors are selling into this decline" or "investors are buying into this rally." On balance, investors do not sell shares, and they don't buy shares. Every share purchased is a share sold. The only question is what price movement is required to prompt a buyer and a seller to trade with each other. No money will come off the sidelines into stocks. No money will come out of stocks and onto the sidelines.
> 
> All such talk is non-equilibrium idiocy. Keep in mind that the "market" consists of different traders with a variety of time-horizons, risk-tolerances, and analytical methods (e.g. technical, report-driven, value-conscious).* It is helpful to think in terms of which group of individuals is likely to do what, and when. It is equally important to know which group of investors you belong to. As the old saying goes, if you're at a poker table and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.*


----------



## nunthewiser (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Yeah, but those guys obviously don't read their stars... that 'Morning Star' is still in tact on the Dow which seems to be showing the way, mostly.




:jerry  LOL......... gotta luv a morning star eh whiskers


----------



## MRC & Co (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> eeeeeek!!!
> 
> nasty surprise this morning!! what happened overnight??!!!
> 
> is this a capitulation anyone??




Yeh, after that quick down move just before cash open today, which saw NO bids, I thought we were really in for a capitulation day!  Loaded up and went short after the quick squeeze, only to see over 600 contracts come into the futs in a minute and it bounce right on cash open!!!!  Wouldn't be surprised to see a little bounce here in OZ!


----------



## sassa (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Yeah, but those guys obviously don't read their stars... that 'Morning Star' is still in tact on the Dow which seems to be showing the way, mostly.






"The market broke though key technical support today. More importantly

-- Prices continually pushed lower, first to 83, then 82.60 then 82.

-- Volume increased as prices moved lower.

In other words, the consolidation is over."
http://www.bonddad.blogspot.com/


----------



## korrupt_1 (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Wouldn't be surprised to see a little bounce here in OZ!




well... if it doesnt bounce quickly... its not going to bounce much at all....

i loaded up on a long on the open and was smartly taken out... lol.. that'll teach me... was expecting that dead cat bounce...

i get the feeling that some huge institutional sell order is dogging our market... the downward pressure has been immense..... someone is desperate to get out and is selling at whatever price they can get...


----------



## Nyden (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



amory said:


> the question, is the rubber band fully extended?  if so, it could bounce back hard.  not saying it will, but the risk is about 50/50.





When the carnage ends; it doesn't necessarily have to end in a mighty up rise. Many (myself included) stipulate that the market will merely trail sideways at the end of this ... perhaps for many months, or even years. By the time this is over, average-joe investors will be so fearful of the markets; that they'll swear off of them for years. Credit will be scarcely available, and few will want leveraged positions - so, there really will be nothing to fuel a mighty rise.

So long as I see comments like this, I will not be buying. People still have hope for a bounce, folk are still talking about stocks being oversold, etc ... I want to see people giving up 

Remember, there's always a chance the rubber band will snap :


----------



## cbacamden (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Im currently in each way with index warrents, with more weighted short than long.

Are we going to 3000 - I have no idea, but i hope so. I have to start making some of my losses back


----------



## sammy84 (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm banking on 3000. The bull started at 3000 and should end there. It is a shame that the whole bull was given up


----------



## IFocus (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If we can finish the week below 3400 then any thing is possible, funny I still cannot smell the fear seems more fur on the bear yet.

.


----------



## skyQuake (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cbacamden said:


> Im currently in each way with index warrents, with more weighted short than long.
> 
> Are we going to 3000 - I have no idea, but i hope so. I have to start making some of my losses back




With the way index warrants are priced. I seriously doubt you will.
They are so seriously overpriced its not funny.


----------



## disarray (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

too obvious??


----------



## tex.willer (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> When the carnage ends; it doesn't necessarily have to end in a mighty up rise. Many (myself included) stipulate that the market will merely trail sideways at the end of this ... perhaps for many months, or even years. By the time this is over, average-joe investors will be so fearful of the markets; that they'll swear off of them for years. Credit will be scarcely available, and few will want leveraged positions - so, there really will be nothing to fuel a mighty rise.
> 
> So long as I see comments like this, I will not be buying. People still have hope for a bounce, folk are still talking about stocks being oversold, etc ... I want to see people giving up
> 
> Remember, there's always a chance the rubber band will snap :




A good common sense comment! People have been jumping back into the market too quickly in the past many months fearful they will miss out on the next bull run. It ain't happening.

Bears love eating fat. There was so much fat and hot air built into the market, there's still some left to feast on.


----------



## nunthewiser (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

data out in the US tonight:Jobless Claims (wk11/15 , 2008) Nov 20 Leading Indicators (Oct , 2008) Nov 20 Philadelphia Fed Survey (Nov , 2008) Nov 20 EIA Natural Gas Report (wk11/14 , 2008) Nov 20 Money Supply (wk11/10 , 2008)


----------



## cbacamden (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For those interested I trade MINIS - so there is no margin, just interest.

I love these things - check em out if you have never seen em before. There is a reason why they have become amazingly popular in Europe


----------



## drsmith (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



disarray said:


> too obvious??



With regard to trying to pick possible trends/turning points on charts, why do some use a linear index scale (such as yours) and others use a non-linear index scale (chart two posts above). 

The non-linear scale used strikes me as the correct one to use but would obviously show a different result in where your lines intersect the index graph.


----------



## skyQuake (20 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



drsmith said:


> With regard to trying to pick possible trends/turning points on charts, why do some use a linear index scale (such as yours) and others use a non-linear index scale (chart two posts above).
> 
> The non-linear scale used strikes me as the correct one to use but would obviously show a different result in where your lines intersect the index graph.




Non-linear (or semi log) is better to draw trendlines with; and more representative of the real trend. A 60tick move when the index was 6000 is different to a 60 tick move now.


----------



## mayk (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Another day, another low achieved on DOW & S&P. Seem to be the trend here.
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI,INDEXSP:.INX,INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC

Yesterday "bargain hunters" will be hurt today. But I have a hunch that we might see a short term bottom today on XAO. 


Maybe 3100-3200. Capitulation anyone


----------



## GreatPig (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A repeat of the very long term chart I posted a number of pages back. Click on the attachment for a larger image. The black line is a linear regression line, while the blue line is one I added as an approximate trend base. The red line is a base trend line post '87.

Log scale is more accurate over larger price moves as it indicates percentage changes rather than absolute changes.

GP


----------



## Sean K (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

30 October:



stoner said:


> Really looks like it's out of the textbooks I have reading, and hopefully these patterns will continue subdividing upward in the days ahead.  The key date was 30th October and the low came in one day earelier than expected. Let's see if this pattern continues to surprise the bears, if anything for at leats the next week.






stoner said:


> Let’s see what “time” brings OWG.  I suspect something else might be brewing here, and the rally will persist for longer than expected.  Today possibly had the hallmarks of a developing 3rd wave of minor degree, but we will know soon if that is right or wrong.
> 
> The low in the SP500 and DJIA on 10th October ended a major cycle, as such I will hang onto my longs for a few more days possibly even another week




I hope stoner got rid of those longs, been all downhill since. 

And the 10 Oct major bottom actually wasn't.

I suppose he was just a beginner at EW. An amateur you might say. 

Or, maybe it was just a disprove .....


----------



## korrupt_1 (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

omfg.... what's going on out there?
am i in an alternative universe or what?
every morning i wake to check the overnight index... i find myself speechless...

so.... 3200 has been broken... where to now???


----------



## Aussiejeff (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> omfg.... what's going on out there?
> am i in an alternative universe or what?
> every morning i wake to check the overnight index... i find myself speechless...
> 
> so.... 3200 has been broken... where to now???




Your call.

Heads or tails?


----------



## MRC & Co (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



korrupt_1 said:


> so.... 3200 has been broken... where to now???




3200 hasn't been broken?


----------



## Justthinkin (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Someone made an earlier comment that second guessing this market was at best, difficult. In my mind it is irrelevant to which camp you belong... technical or fundamental. But I must express my admiration for those who diligently practice their craft picking the bottom ... a real show of courage.

For those who have any equity left and are sitting on the side, maybe they'd like to comment on the sub 3000 hypothesis. 

It's Friday, the DJIA finished on a sour note, US car makers are begging for mercy and were embarrased by a smug congressman, the punters suggesting that its time the tall poppies fell on their own swords...hmmm


----------



## korrupt_1 (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> 3200 hasn't been broken?




ah ok... maybe not intraday... but overnight....

PS I do realise that this the XJO quote... but since XAO is at a discount to XJO... XAO would be worse off...


----------



## kotim (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have attached a chart of the all ords since the 81 lows.  For those interested in Elliot, it has behaved quite well.  It is a behaviour of wave 5s to retrace to the bottom, usually slightly under of wave 4's.  It is also (apparently) likely that on extended wave 5's there is a tendancy to trade back towards closely to the wave 1 highs.  Anyway, just something to be aware of if it gets there.


----------



## IFocus (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Justthinkin A couple of points to think about




Justthinkin said:


> Someone made an earlier comment that second guessing this market was at best, difficult.




This market is just fine nice steady trends, this is as good as it gets as the moves are nice and big. Second guessing any market is gambling not trading.

Gambling is difficult because you are a net loser



> In my mind it is irrelevant to which camp you belong... technical or fundamental.




Absolutely spot on if I can just add ideally what ever method you use is good if it keeps you on the right side of the market. Plenty here keep trying to go long in a bear market with a strong down trend.

Would they try to short a bull market in an up trend? Same thing




> But I must express my admiration for those who diligently practice their craft picking the bottom ... a real show of courage.




Cannot say I feel the same way as the craft is gambling with a tough of fear and greed worrying about missing out sure way to lose money again not a serious trading method more so emotional foolishness.



> For those who have any equity left and are sitting on the side, maybe they'd like to comment on the sub 3000 hypothesis.




Let me help spin the big wheel and plonk it all on red, same thing

Not meaning to be rude Justthinkin just trying to challenge your thinking

Hope it helps


----------



## GreatPig (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Second guessing any market is gambling not trading.
> 
> Gambling is difficult because you are a net loser



That depends on the odds.

True gambling would best be simulated by totally random trades, and over the long term, the odds are in your favour (for long-only trades) as the market has trended up over such time frames.

Some time ago I (and others) did some backtests using completely random trades and the return was not surprisingly in line with the trend over the same time. However, survivorship bias needs to be considered, so the return would likely be somewhat lower than indicated by a backtest (this could be seen by comparing backtests over the all-ords and over the ASX200).

Similar to investing in an index fund I suppose.

GP


----------



## cbacamden (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yey - Nice Little Profit. My 13 trade loosing streak is broken

Thanks - for all your help guys, being a fundamental man I suck at tech analysis, so its great to have your thoughts.

Im closing all XAO positions and will review again this arvo, may risk it and go long for tomorrow.

What are the chances you recon, for a small bounce tomorrow ?


----------



## IFocus (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> That depends on the odds.
> 
> True gambling would best be simulated by totally random trades, and over the long term, the odds are in your favour (for long-only trades) as the market has trended up over such time frames.
> 
> ...




GP If I read your comments right your random trades were in only one direction or in the direction of the trend or that your testing resulted from random trades that were placed in the same direction of the prevailing trend. (wish I was more succinct)

As apposed to bottom picking which is against the prevailing trend.

Are there results for random trades counter trend?

My own win loss over the long term is generally no better than 50/50 but if I try to trade counter trend then I just don't get the home runs to pay for the losses.

I know there are plenty of counter trend strategies but I am just not that smart and stick with the simple 

Hoping I make sense


----------



## GreatPig (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> If I read your comments right your random trades were in only one direction or in the direction of the trend



The random trades were all over the period being tested, but the overall trend during that period was up. If the test period covered a time when the overall trend was down, then I'd expect the results to be in line with that trend (ie. negative).



> Are there results for random trades counter trend?



While that could be done (with backtesting), I don't really see the point. As stated above, I'd expect results to be in line with the trend on average, so random counter-trend trading should always results in losses (on average).

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Nyden (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, I've just taken up a very small position today (ANZ); so far in the green ... not sure if I'll hold overnight though - might sell off closer into the closing bell. Bought in at $13, looks like a recovery is happening; and I really expect us to finish well off into the green. I missed the boat (was at the doctors!) when I saw the recovery had already begun a little while ago though

BHP looking good as well. ... just got a little at 21.250


Might sell very quick though, could fall all the way back :


----------



## grace (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mayk said:


> Another day, another low achieved on DOW & S&P. Seem to be the trend here.
> http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI,INDEXSP:.INX,INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC
> 
> Yesterday "bargain hunters" will be hurt today. But I have a hunch that we might see a short term bottom today on XAO.
> ...




Good call perhaps.  BHP at $20.....mmmm......sweet.  Pity I was working!


----------



## Sunder (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cbacamden said:


> What are the chances you recon, for a small bounce tomorrow ?




I can tell you the chances of a small bounce tomorrow is nil. Nothing, nada. In fact, I could bet my house on it.

I'll be more specific. I don't think any shares will trade tomorrow at all, and all shares will remain stable 

It's Saturaday tomorrow


----------



## Mr Capital (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> I can tell you the chances of a small bounce tomorrow is nil. Nothing, nada. In fact, I could bet my house on it.
> 
> I'll be more specific. I don't think any shares will trade tomorrow at all, and all shares will remain stable
> 
> It's Saturaday tomorrow




Haha. I am cautiously optimistic for one on MONDAY


----------



## Aussiejeff (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Mr Capital said:


> Haha. I am cautiously optimistic for one on MONDAY




I think you'll find this dead cat bounce is purely a response to the main banks lowering interest rates by 100 basis points. 

Come Monday, everyone will wake up and reality will bite once more. Also, better hope the US doen't tank again tonight or this ASX "mini-bounce" will just turn into another "Semi-perma Bull sucker rally".

I'd seriously look at selling into the post-trade auction rather than hold in the gambling hope the US is going to follow our lead! Why should they?



aj


----------



## MS+Tradesim (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> I think you'll find this dead cat bounce is purely a response to the main banks lowering interest rates by 100 basis points.
> aj




Except that the bounce is Asia wide:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia


----------



## chops_a_must (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> I think you'll find this dead cat bounce is purely a response to the main banks lowering interest rates by 100 basis points.
> 
> Come Monday, everyone will wake up and reality will bite once more. Also, better hope the US doen't tank again tonight or this ASX "mini-bounce" will just turn into another "Semi-perma Bull sucker rally".
> 
> ...




Looks good to me.

This was at about the area a bounce should have been expected.

I was going to post tonight why I didn't think it was worth shorting anything because all of the heavy hitters on the index have passed their downside targets. So there was nothing left to go for at this stage on the short.

But geez... not able to get to a computer for a few hours, and something happens.  What happened?


----------



## Nyden (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, I have decided to leave my rather minuscule position (with a rather lovely paper gain) in play over the weekend. Simply because I believe the losses the US are facing are unsustainable over the immediate term. The fact that the Asian markets have recovered quite convincingly might just be enough to flutter a minor rally.

 ... or, the rest of Asia will start going downhill from here, the US will ignore any positives - and will plummet another 6%  Wiping out my ill-gotten greedy gains and most definitely then-some  Either way, my position is small enough to the point where I'm good with it, and I have set myself some stops. I'm more so studying myself, and my own thoughts and feelings at the moment; than any external factors ... you know, like why I didn't just lock-in a 4% gain 

I do plan to exit before it begins to plummit again, though.


----------



## chops_a_must (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's options expiry tonight, so it will likely be a moderate gain as well I would say.


----------



## Kipp (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What a rally... never would have picked that at 1:30 today!!!


----------



## MRC & Co (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kipp said:


> What a rally... never would have picked that at 1:30 today!!!




Tell me about it, holy fukcing macro!!!!!!!

That looks like something BIG is happening!


----------



## skyQuake (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Very considerate for them to squeeze the 2nd day after the ban gets lifted


----------



## cbacamden (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

he he - yes, your right about no lift tomorrow  being Saturday

Went long with small amount in warrents about 2pm today. Im up so far but will be looking  to close out very quickly if it opens down monday morning.

Hoping this is the start of a 10 - 15% short term recovery

On the other side, if/when GM and/or Citbank go under the market could easily go down 10 - 15% more

Its still a gamble at this stage, so keeping my positions very small


----------



## cbacamden (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

he he - yes, your right about no lift tomorrow  being Saturday

Went long with small amount in warrents about 2pm today. Im up so far but will be looking  to close out very quickly if it opens down monday morning.

Hoping this is the start of a 10 - 15% short term recovery

On the other side, if/when GM and/or Citbank go under the market could easily go down 10 - 15% more

Its still a gamble at this stage, so keeping my positions very small


----------



## sinner (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ah I am quite beginning to like my Friday night 7pm-7am shift.

Allows me to get paid watching the European and US markets from open to close!

Rally in the European markets currently underway with some heavy upward momentum!


----------



## >Apocalypto< (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

very impressive come back on the market today....

could smart money be that big?

either way very nice


----------



## Struzball (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Even if technical analyisis says this is the bottom, fundamentally, any company which loses 70+% of their value couldn't be worth investing in in my opinion at least.

So let's assume this is the bottom, the companies that did well in the previous bull market probably won't do so well in the next.  I would assume they'll either stagnate or dissapear.  ie, all the speculative miners etc.

I personally would bet this is a bottom, but wouldn't instantly put my life savings in the likes of bhp, rio, fmg, mqg, bnb etc.  I think there will be a new round of booming companies people will get excited about in the future, but none of them will be mining/investment banks.  Just as in the dotcom bubble, nobody is very excited about them anymore.

The reason I think this bottom will take a long time is that people will continue to get excited about the likes of bhp, then sell off etc until the whole mining boom is forgotten.

I wonder what will be the next big excitement, until then, I'm out!


----------



## shaunQ (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just posting a devils-advocate response and not wanting to spoil everyones joy and very happy for everyone who gained today..!

And I am probably bias because I missed out because I was working and couldn't join in, but it didn't seem like capitulation to me. More people jumping in at the magic 3200 mark as the "bottom". Although, I could imagine, if Monday did go down worse... then, we may have it as everyone is crushed.

All seemed a little too easy.


----------



## Nyden (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Struzball said:


> So let's assume this is the bottom, the companies that did well in the previous bull market probably won't do so well in the next.  I would assume they'll either stagnate or dissapear.  ie, all the speculative miners etc.




I disagree with that. Banks will always be needed, and as will commodities. The raging boom for commodities has been over for a while, yes - but I do believe they will eventually recover ... not to their previous highs, perhaps not even close - but there will certainly be opportunities.

Energy will most likely be the new boom; but certain mining stocks actually are energy-focused. Uranium (which BHP has, I believe), oil (another one for BHP) - and of course alternative energies (those I believe will be the  new hot spec stocks of the next boom)

Ignore me though, I'm hopped up on opiates  Cough suppressants for my laryngitis ... euphoria is an apparent side-effect, explains why I decided to stay in the market for the weekend!

Shuan, although I completely agree about this not being the bottom; the issue is (as someone else pointed out) that our markets might not go through the capitulation phase; as right now we're almost entirely trailing the US markets - and once they start to recover, we will too. Capitulation, or no capitulation, I'm afraid.

 ... then again, I'm seeing a lot of negativity here after a pretty good rally; perhaps that stands to reinforce that a short term bottom is indeed in :


----------



## outback (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It looked abit like a duck
It quacked a bit like a duck
It waddled a bit like a duck

But that rally smelt like a rat, not capitulation.


----------



## sinner (21 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



shaunQ said:


> Just posting a devils-advocate response and not wanting to spoil everyones joy and very happy for everyone who gained today..!
> 
> And I am probably bias because I missed out because I was working and couldn't join in, but it didn't seem like capitulation to me. More people jumping in at the magic 3200 mark as the "bottom". Although, I could imagine, if Monday did go down worse... then, we may have it as everyone is crushed.
> 
> All seemed a little too easy.




You and Peter Schiff both...

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=pGHODRNJqRo

Once again people laughing at him like hes crazy...


----------



## nomore4s (22 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Very considerate for them to squeeze the 2nd day after the ban gets lifted




lol, I had a feeling we could see some sort of rally after the short selling ban was lifted. People would have loaded up on shorts but I just can't see the smart money shorting anything after such a strong leg down without some sort of rally first. Instead they would have been buying the stock the shorters were selling and looking to squeeze them in the next week or so.

My current take is we will see some sort of rally now. First target is around 3600-3700 and if we can gain some traction we could push up into the 4300 area but it would take some serious effort to push any higher atm imo.

Don't think this is the bottom though, some serious work to be done before we see any decent new uptrend imo.
I think we will retest 3200 again at some stage at the very least.

As for capitulation I'm not so sure we will see a strong capitulation day due to the force of this move down and the panic and fear we have already seen in the markets. In saying that today was the type of day I've been looking for and you could call it capitulation of sorts.


----------



## Aussiejeff (22 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



shaunQ said:


> Just posting a devils-advocate response and not wanting to spoil everyones joy and very happy for everyone who gained today..!
> 
> And I am probably bias because I missed out because I was working and couldn't join in, but it didn't seem like capitulation to me. More people jumping in at the magic 3200 mark as the "bottom". Although, I could imagine, if Monday did go down worse... then, we may have it as everyone is crushed.
> 
> All seemed a little too easy.




Is the World Economy fixed? NOPE
Is unemployment going down? NOPE
Is REAL business confidence going up? NOPE
Do world leaders seem to have the answers to the Financial Crisis? NOPE
So, is this going to be a strong rally? NOPE
Ahh. Then this rally is really a bit of a punt? YEP

aj


----------



## Sean K (22 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> Is the World Economy fixed? NOPE
> Is unemployment going down? NOPE
> Is REAL business confidence going up? NOPE
> Do world leaders seem to have the answers to the Financial Crisis? NOPE
> ...



The stock market overshoots and undershoots.

And is forward looking. 

By the time the economy is fixed the bottom will have long been seen. 

A once in a generation crash represents a once in a generation buying opportunity. 

Don't miss it.


----------



## $20shoes (22 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Longer term analysis:

The sheer momentum of this bear market has expanded the Bollinger Bands to levels far beyond anything we've seen in recent times (save '87). When you have a squeeze on (a contraction in volatility), it is unusual but not impossible for the weekly price action to close lower then the green band as a trend takes off with gusto, and before it takes pause. 

However, from a BB analysis, when we are already at an historic level of expansion such as we have witnessed these last 6 weeks, it looks like we have a capitulation of sorts with prices closing against the bands, but its more a "death by a thousand cuts" than the beheading we may have expected. There's no doubt the red 21 week band is going to move outside of the green 55 week band this week or next, suggesting that the XAO is once again at an extreme of volatility. The lower bands are all in bearish alignment and almost vertical showing the sheer strength of the market. We may go lower from here but I would suggest selling pressure could not keep the current downward momentum going for more than another fortnight.

It is important to note that the sheer expansion of volatility means that at some point there will be a necessary multi-month (>9 months) period of contraction where the likelihood is a meandering market (with a likely bias to the downside before the upper bands have all curled down enough to allow another period of expansion). Note, that large periods of expansion can allow the share price to form impressive V-style retracements contained within the bands prior to a more trendless, drifting period (look for the swings when they come). 


The upper green Bollinger Band is showing early but unproven signs of curling over, whilst the lower bands are not yet wrapping around the price action. Hence, this study is not yet suggesting a longer term bottom is in. 

I have included some Stochastics throwing out possible patterns, particularly the upper pane (shorter term), suggesting some upside coming now (this looks likely on the daily with the broadening formation holding). Mid term Stochs are still trying to bottom out, and longer term still need 4-5 months before the %k would cross the %D. 

I'm looking into Jan for the bigger move up, and then a weakening off after this point. Lets see what the wind brings.


----------



## M34N (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well that was a pretty p***-poor performance today on our market, and now the SPI down over 1.5% with Dow futures down about 0.6%.

Anyone get the feeling the market _wants_ to go down?


----------



## Nyden (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Well that was a pretty p***-poor performance today on our market, and now the SPI down over 1.5% with Dow futures down about 0.6%.
> 
> Anyone get the feeling the market _wants_ to go down?




Well, yes M34N, it does "want" to go down - it's in a downtrend ...

Heck, I sold the positions I bought on Friday earlier on already (modest gain ), there's no reason to hold too long on any positions in this environment ... the way the aussie economy is looking, you'll be lucky if the company you invest in doesn't go bust


----------



## MrBurns (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Well that was a pretty p***-poor performance today on our market, and now the SPI down over 1.5% with Dow futures down about 0.6%.
> 
> Anyone get the feeling the market _wants_ to go down?




I think it wants to go up, people are thinking these are bargains (again) but I predict it will plumet to new lows within a week.


----------



## M34N (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Well, yes M34N, it does "want" to go down - it's in a downtrend ...
> 
> Heck, I sold the positions I bought on Friday earlier on already (modest gain ), there's no reason to hold too long on any positions in this environment ... the way the aussie economy is looking, you'll be lucky if the company you invest in doesn't go bust




You know what I mean though, every rally attempt is met with so much selling, there always seems to be a reason to get pushed back down every single time, without fail. It just seems so bizarre.

I am very bearish on the market myself, and even though I know things are bad, the moves down seem a bit over the top.


----------



## Nyden (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> You know what I mean though, every rally attempt is met with so much selling, there always seems to be a reason to get pushed back down every single time, without fail. It just seems so bizarre.
> 
> I am very bearish on the market myself, and even though I know things are bad, the moves down seem a bit over the top.




How can they be over the top? No one knows just how bad things could get - especially for Australia. Are our banks really that far beyond a potential collapse? Surely the public don't think so, as Rudd needed to guarantee all deposits! Why would you invest in something that could literally in a weeks time be worth zero. This sort of risk (no matter how remote) *needs* to be factored into the price, and rightly so.

Things only keep getting worse for Australia. A falling AUD hurts our importers, and the massive declines in commodity prices only stand to balance it for the miners. Consumers aren't spending - and Australia is a nation based on consumption - a consumption fuelled by boom-times.

Australia almost has nothing going for it at the moment; so any and all falls on our markets are entirely justifiable.


----------



## IFocus (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> How can they be over the top? No one knows just how bad things could get - especially for Australia. Are our banks really that far beyond a potential collapse? Surely the public don't think so, as Rudd needed to guarantee all deposits! Why would you invest in something that could literally in a weeks time be worth zero. This sort of risk *needs* to be factored into the price, and rightly so.
> 
> Things only keep getting worse for Australia. A falling AUD hurts our importers, and the massive declines in commodity prices only stand to balance it for the miners. Consumers aren't spending - and Australia is a nation based on consumption - a consumption fuelled by boom-times.
> 
> Australia almost has nothing going for it at the moment; so any and all falls on our markets are entirely justifiable.




Nyden great to see you on the right side of the market


----------



## M34N (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> How can they be over the top? No one knows just how bad things could get - especially for Australia. Are our banks really that far beyond a potential collapse? Surely the public don't think so, as Rudd needed to guarantee all deposits! Why would you invest in something that could literally in a weeks time be worth zero. This sort of risk (no matter how remote) *needs* to be factored into the price, and rightly so.
> 
> Things only keep getting worse for Australia. A falling AUD hurts our importers, and the massive declines in commodity prices only stand to balance it for the miners. Consumers aren't spending - and Australia is a nation based on consumption - a consumption fuelled by boom-times.
> 
> Australia almost has nothing going for it at the moment; so any and all falls on our markets are entirely justifiable.




Well, selling because we _might_ get some bad news, yeah it's risk aversion, but why is it that the US markets can rally, but ours doesn't? That's the part I don't get, if we follow the Dow so religiously, then why don't we go up when the US does, but instead go down again?

Again I agree with what you're saying, but my point still remains about the majority of rallies here being met with even MORE resistance and stronger selling, and end up lower again. That's the part I don't understand so well!


----------



## johenmo (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking at a few stocks, there seems to be more sellers than buyers.  So why would it go up?  It (consistently) goes up when there are (consistently)more buyers than sellers.

I remember reading a couple of years some guy saying that it will crash "soon" but his rider was that it was going to be different and was doubting if it would recover at all.  Certainly hope it doesn't do that.  General consensus seems to be forget 2008 and wait 'til 2009 for it to bottom - early to mid.

There's a lot of sorting to be done in the financial world before confidence comes back.  Picture don't look like a bottom.


----------



## Nyden (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Well, selling because we _might_ get some bad news, yeah it's risk aversion, but why is it that the US markets can rally, but ours doesn't? That's the part I don't get, if we follow the Dow so religiously, then why don't we go up when the US does, but instead go down again?
> 
> Again I agree with what you're saying, but my point still remains about the majority of rallies here being met with even MORE resistance and stronger selling, and end up lower again. That's the part I don't understand so well!




Perhaps it's because the American markets actually have more than 2 industries (finance and miners  ... I jest); not to mention the far higher volumes can amount to far higher volatility.

The US markets may rally at the drop of a hat, but when they fell 10% in one session - I think we only fell 5? So, it does cut both ways ... I'd certainly love to see a fall of 400pts in one day, but so far it hasn't happened.


----------



## otagomed (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, if we think about it, this crisis started from lehman brothers so it is the financial sector that is being hit hard.  Also the commodity prices are falling so the resourse sector is hit hard as well. And that's what ASX is made up of and that's why we are dropping while US is going up.


----------



## beerwm (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

...our banks collaspe?

in an economy forcasting growth?

Australian industries are in a better position that the US, now and for future prospects. I think the US automotive industry is under abit of question but the AU resources, im sure that will make it through.

has the dow even breached the 50%?


----------



## MRC & Co (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> not to mention the far higher volumes can amount to far higher volatility.




Are we seeing far higher volumes?  

Also, the boom times were fuelled by consumption, not the other way around.


----------



## Nyden (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Are we seeing far higher volumes?
> 
> Also, the boom times were fuelled by consumption, not the other way around.




I mean the US markets have higher volumes in comparison to ours ... 

Aussie based consumption was not the cause of our boom; I am of course referring to Australian consumer spending. When everyone is making fantastic paper gains on their super, portfolios, and RE investments - they spend. Now that everyone is losing / has lost money, they're no longer spending. Perhaps it's the chicken and the egg


----------



## >Apocalypto< (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Well that was a pretty p***-poor performance today on our market, and now the SPI down over 1.5% with Dow futures down about 0.6%.
> 
> Anyone get the feeling the market _wants_ to go down?




mate put it in perspective...

what is ruling the market now? FEAR........

If you had a crappy position and a acceptable price came your way would you hold to support the market or would you sell to cover your ass?

I don't blame the sellers..... It's a bear market


----------



## cbacamden (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As others have mentioned I was suprised today not to see some gains. I closed long position with minor gains as I think tomorrow could be down again. But im not sure enough to take a short position.

Tomorrow will be an interesting day - If its down tomorrow I recon it will keep going and step down again


----------



## Nyden (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cbacamden said:


> As others have mentioned I was suprised today not to see some gains. I closed long position with minor gains as I think tomorrow could be down again. But im not sure enough to take a short position.
> 
> Tomorrow will be an interesting day - If its down tomorrow I recon it will keep going and step down again




Same boat as you, but looks like we should have held on : Some fantastic gains over in Europe ...


----------



## drsmith (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist made the following statements over the weekend as reported by the press.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i8HpO039TzDraiyELcdq_oI0TmGw

In the final sentence of the above report he states;


> The central banks "should lower interest rates to as close to zero as possible," he said.



This is the same guy who suggested on October 12 (the weekend after the week of the October plunge) that markets could collapse by another 20%.

Now like everybody else who reads an article like this I try to read between the lines. The statement and the final sentence quoted above in particular suggests to me that Central Banks are yet to grasp the gravity of the situation in his view.

I also find it interesting as to why he would go public with such a statement. Surely he would have first raised his concerns in private with central bankers and governments. 

This coming from the IMF's chief economist strikes me as very significant and on this it would be interesting to know the views of others (Dow futures ignoring this as I type, up 154 points).


----------



## OzWaveGuy (24 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



drsmith said:


> Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist made the following statements over the weekend as reported by the press.




It's perfectly simple: FEAR.

What's the easiest way to have the general population agree with a new strategy/policy/legislation you will unleash in the near future (however bad it may be)? Fear works almost everytime and it's been used for centuries.

For example the recent $700B bailout was a good example - I heard phrases like 'rejection will mean a 2000 point decline the next day', 'martial law will need to be enacted to control the panic' ..... now that it's done - where did all the money go? Who in the main stream media is chasing it up? Is it even reported? It appears to be accepted and many countries are doing it.

Of course these days the difference is the mainstream media are part of the PR machine and will drive the message home (eg FOX news). Even Koshi was spinning the $700B bailout on Sunrise - it's been done for a reason. Greed or control are 2 that come to mind.


----------



## sinner (25 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeah what DID happen to all our bailout money?

Citi is apparently worth less now than the money the Govt put into them a few weeks ago!


----------



## Nyden (25 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Fantastic gains today - especially at the close!

Certainly wish these gains would have eventuated yesterday instead, when I obviously sold out a day too soon : Between the 2 I bought I would have made an additional 12%! 

A part of me really wants to believe that the worse has been factored in already, and that the bottom is in - but these sorts of gains have to be unhealthy. If the money coming in is just hot-money from punters, surely this is indicative of the potential for all of today's gains to be wiped out tomorrow!

The US markets have had the bounce they had to have, perhaps it's now time to be on the way back down again?


----------



## Wysiwyg (25 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Fantastic gains today - especially at the close!
> 
> Certainly wish these gains would have eventuated yesterday instead, when I obviously sold out a day too soon : Between the 2 I bought I would have made an additional 12%!




Good show Nyden. 
	

		
			
		

		
	






> The US markets have had the bounce they had to have, perhaps it's now time to be on the way back down again?




yep, the stretch up must be reaching it`s end.The next impacting news is waiting in the wings.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (25 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The XAO appears to be in a good short term situation - at the moment. 

Assuming there will not be any further progress upwards tomorrow to extend the last leg from today - 5 waves up can be considered complete. A short term correction should occur followed by at least another 5 waves up before more complex wave structures unfold as part of the larger wave (4) correction.

The impending short term downwards correction could possibly be as much as 76.8% of the leg up from last Friday, but the closest short term price support is at 3400 which is a 50% retracement - therefore a possible target to keep an eye on.

Alternatively, this current leg could subdivide further with aggressive upside potential over the next few days - either way, tomorrow morning's opening should light the way.

The S&P500 has also completed 5 waves up, thereby placing the XAO and S&P500 'in sync' over the short term.

The expectation is that this leg up will turn into wave (4) up, possibly reaching 4300 points (exactly a 38.2% retracement of wave (3) down). The shape of this correction is yet to unfold, but a flat or triangle are the top candidates.


----------



## MRC & Co (25 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Aussie based consumption was not the cause of our boom; I am of course referring to Australian consumer spending. When everyone is making fantastic paper gains on their super, portfolios, and RE investments - they spend. Now that everyone is losing / has lost money, they're no longer spending. Perhaps it's the chicken and the egg




Na, consumption comes first.  Any fall, causes a decrease in demand, supply then contracts and so production is toned down.

If you trailed your stop Nyden (moved it to BE), you may have picked up todays gains and anymore that are in the pipeline!  

All simple RR and with the force that came in on Friday accross the globe, I would say the probability is that further gains would be seen.  Someone was buying the stocks and then going to town on the futs (a case where the futs don't always lead, despite most thinking so).


----------



## Nyden (25 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> If you trailed your stop Nyden (moved it to BE), you may have picked up todays gains and anymore that are in the pipeline!




Absolutely, you're of course right MRC. I obviously majorly regret not staying in; would have multiplied my gains 6-fold ...

Of course, the fact is that I've been out of the market for well over a year, and I'm merely wetting my feet at the moment; just testing the waters


----------



## MRC & Co (25 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Absolutely, you're of course right MRC. I obviously majorly regret not staying in; would have multiplied my gains 6-fold ...
> 
> Of course, the fact is that I've been out of the market for well over a year, and I'm merely wetting my feet at the moment; just testing the waters




Yeh, that's fair.

Really do need some good trading techniques to be able to extract any cash out of this current environment.  

Hard part about getting out, is that it's hard to now time another entry with a good RR.  But nothing is concrete in this game.  Good you banked some profits.


----------



## Nyden (25 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, that's fair.
> 
> Really do need some good trading techniques to be able to extract any cash out of this current environment.
> 
> Hard part about getting out, is that it's hard to now time another entry with a good RR.  But nothing is concrete in this game.  Good you banked some profits.




Well, on the bright side it looks as though tonight may be a red night for the world markets; I hope so, at least :

 ... on the not so bright side, looks like BHP could potentially have a great day tomorrow, sure wish I had kept my entry point of $21  Always easy to say in hindsight though.

It is somewhat comforting though that we blindly follow the US markets - offers a little foresight occasionally. I just honestly want things to begin to stabilize. 12% gains don't sit too well with me I'm afraid; it's the volatility, not for me!


----------



## MRC & Co (25 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Mmmmmm, yeh, the markets more just all follow eachother.  It's one big dance.

It's working out the correlation between specific markets at any given point in time that will make you the cash.  Hence, there are a lot of spread traders out there.  You can use the correlations intraday to scalp also if you notice them.


----------



## Real1ty (25 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

While i wouldn't declare it as a sign of supreme confidence i think that these late surges in the markets are a small sign of confidence.

If people are prepared to hold overnight rather than pumping and dumping it has to be a good thing, doesn't it?

Hey, in these markets we need some light at the end of the tunnel


----------



## treefrog (26 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> tech,
> it was Boggo who posted the original 3250 fib target (posts#5119 and 5120)
> bankit agreed (#5122) and reinforced.
> Skyquake (#5123) and logique concurred.
> ...




appears not many left in the XAO bottom picking contest these days - just the fib cluster gang and tech-a, then its on to OWG's 1500 if 3200 doesn't hold


----------



## disarray (26 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sinner said:


> Yeah what DID happen to all our bailout money?




bailoutsleuth.com is covering the american bailout


----------



## cbacamden (27 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ok like Nyden, I exited with only small gain over last few days- I should have stayed in)

Anyway I went long again yesterday, and am currently showing small gains.

Im concerned about 

1 any negative news re US motor industry and 
2 a general drift down over next few days

Any thoughts ? Im so unsure at the moment that im thinking of just closing  out all xjo positions.


----------



## Sean K (27 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cbacamden said:


> Ok like Nyden, I exited with only small gain over last few days- I should have stayed in)
> 
> Anyway I went long again yesterday, and am currently showing small gains.
> 
> ...



Yes, if GM officially goes bankrupt then it could be a catalyst for the next leg down. Or, maybe bankrupt is factored in?

Generally feels like there's more risk being taken at the moment. Money is flowing into the market. A few rounded bottoms and higher highs and lows on specs. 

A Christmas rally could go on into Jan before the world completely implodes.

Or not.


----------



## cbacamden (27 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OK - Im takin a risk. The BHP has gapped away from XJO.

So I have gone short BHP and long XJO - hoping whatever happens I will gain when they come together again.

Thanks Guys,


----------



## cartel31 (27 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whats your thoughts on the price movements for the XAO, XJO tm. The DOW will be closed tm and open only half a day on Friday, but that won;t matter until Monday for us.

Any thoughts guys?


----------



## sinner (27 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cartel31 said:


> Whats your thoughts on the price movements for the XAO, XJO tm. The DOW will be closed tm and open only half a day on Friday, but that won;t matter until Monday for us.
> 
> Any thoughts guys?




The following is NOT financial advice:

When the cat is away, many mice come out to play.


----------



## Sean K (27 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cartel31 said:


> Whats your thoughts on the price movements for the XAO, XJO tm. The DOW will be closed tm and open only half a day on Friday, but that won;t matter until Monday for us.
> 
> Any thoughts guys?



At the casino, I always think that if more than 4 reds or blacks come up, that I should double up in the opposite direction. 

DOW's gone up 4 days in a row. 

Place your bets...



:


----------



## jono_oz (27 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We do seem to be oversold here when you look at the loss from Jan to now. 

USA down 32% 
Australia down 48%

USA debt as % of GDP 40%
Australia debt as % of GDP 15%

USA Budget Defecit heading to the Trillion mark and total debt at 10 Trillion
Australia ... Media panicing about a possible defecit...

I will be interested to see in 3 years time how much of Australia is still owned by Australians. Once our resources are bought by China, USA and others .. I'm sure the resource boom will return.


----------



## GreatPig (27 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> At the casino, I always think that if more than 4 reds or blacks come up, that I should double up in the opposite direction.



Gambler's Fallacy, Kennas.

GP


----------



## Sean K (27 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Gambler's Fallacy, Kennas.
> 
> GP





That was what the link went to.


----------



## nick2fish (27 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cartel31 said:


> Whats your thoughts on the price movements for the XAO, XJO tm. The DOW will be closed tm and open only half a day on Friday, but that won;t matter until Monday for us.
> 
> Any thoughts guys?




A tiny ship without a rudder on a stormy sea is what comes to mind...for some reason   

In one word directionless , in three Flat, Flat, Flat

sorry for sounding so cynical


----------



## MRC & Co (27 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm pretty sure Cameronsystems has some data on this if anybody could  be bothered checking.


----------



## GreatPig (27 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> That was what the link went to



Oh, LOL. I tend not to follow most links posted in messages, unless it's to an article that's the main point of the message.

But at least we're in agreement. 

GP


----------



## davo8 (27 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



treefrog said:


> appears not many left in the XAO bottom picking contest these days - just the fib cluster gang and tech-a, then its on to OWG's 1500 if 3200 doesn't hold




Nonsense. The 3200-3400 support is based on historical levels going back to April 2002. If that doesn't hold (and it probably won't) there are strong levels at 2900 and the final frontier at 2700 (April 2003). The market will not give up any of those levels quickly -- some of us have long memories!

My bet is the only way we'll get that low is if a bank fails, and if we're headed on that track is likely to take 12 months or more to get there. Talk of 1500 without a massive change in fundamentals is just hot air.


----------



## nick2fish (28 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cartel31 said:


> Whats your thoughts on the price movements for the XAO, XJO tm. The DOW will be closed tm and open only half a day on Friday, but that won;t matter until Monday for us.
> 
> Any thoughts guys?




Oh Well Europe markets are doing okay without the luxury of looking over thier shoulders to check on the Dow. Could be another up day 2morrow, which would be a definite bonus being Friday and all. Then all we need is another press conference from Obama on Friday night to push the Dow along for our Monday open. Thats the plan anyway


----------



## CamKawa (28 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Alan Kohler said on tonights ABC news that he suspects the bottom may be in for what it's worth.


----------



## lioness (28 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Not convinced of an absolute low, but this is how we saw it back on the 21st...
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Hi Nick,

As the XJO has obviously turned up, can you now provide an update to your analysis as 21/11/08 is now very old news. Thanks in advance.

You are now expecting a bounce no doubt.


----------



## Rockon2 (28 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

cbacamden....  You expressed concern about the US motor industry.

Ford and GM have had a lift see charts,, Not sure what it means, saviour or die,, but a chart is a chart, simple... and a fair bit of volume to boot 


Gday To Nick... Im a happy subscriber.

and A Gday to treefrog.. long time no see


----------



## cbacamden (28 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks - Very interesting.

Somone knows something I dont 

They should let em die, but I dont think they will, and maybe this chart supports that.

Thanks for letting us know


----------



## Sean K (29 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



lioness said:


> Hi Nick,
> 
> As the XJO has obviously turned up, can you now provide an update to your analysis as 21/11/08 is now very old news. Thanks in advance.
> 
> You are now expecting a bounce no doubt.



Have to wait till next week for this weeks analysis.

He's not going to provide the fee paying service to ASF'ers of course.


----------



## lioness (29 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Have to wait till next week for this weeks analysis.
> 
> He's not going to provide the fee paying service to ASF'ers of course.




Yes Kennas, you have reminded me nothing in life is for free, except capital losses from the sharemarket!!!!!!!!


----------



## davo8 (30 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> He's not going to provide the fee paying service to ASF'ers of course.




You can have my forecast for free. I've been right so far, but past performance etc etc.

1. The market WILL revisit this low (3200-ish). We have not departed these levels. Trade if you like, but stay close to the exits.

2. Most likely this is NOT the bottom. There is a lower low ahead, probably Feb, possibly as late as May. 

Rationale: the unprecedented damage done to the fabric of the US financial system will lead to a disastrous outcome. Depending on choices yet to be made that could be Japanese-style lockjaw, Zimbabwean hyperinflation or a Russian-style bond default, with the course clear by May at latest. There is no decoupling -- we are in this together.

Charts are irrelevant, because markets have not priced in these events.


----------



## Boggo (30 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> You can have my forecast for free. *I've been right so far*, but past performance etc etc.




Yep, you were right Davo, just not sure which one though...

11th October


> I confess to being very relieved. The waiting was getting on my nerves. I sold out of almost everything Oct-Feb and forecast October as "the big one" with a range of 4000-4500. Now I'm waiting to buy.




15th October


> Agreed. Just to put a figure on it, a good first target would be the support at 4000. Then there is the 50% retracement at 3900. After that is the old resistance levels at around 3500. But the big one is the bottom from back in 2003, which was close to 2700. That's close to a 60% retracement.




18th October


> That looked like a pretty complicated way to forecast a simple 50% pullback from the peak. The all time high was 6854 intra-day. Half that is 3427. Done.
> 
> I'm still kind of expecting either the 3900 or 3500 support levels to hold, but the speed of the drop suggests it will go lower. I can't wait! All those lovely cheap stocks!




6th November


> Indeed. I'm still voting for 7K on the DOW, 700 on the S&P and 3500 on the ASX.



and


> I doubt it. I'll pick support at 3400 based on the old 2004 support and 2002 resistance levels. Maybe it'll go lower eventually, but not in one go. Some of us have long memories.





7th November


> The XAO is now scaled upwards and trended upwards by inflation and can never reach those low levels again. If you adjust the XAO for CPI or GDP you will find the trend bottom is now around 3500 or so.




27th November


> Nonsense. The 3200-3400 support is based on historical levels going back to April 2002. If that doesn't hold (and it probably won't) there are strong levels at 2900 and the final frontier at 2700 (April 2003).


----------



## Sean K (30 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> Yep, you were right Davo, just not sure which one though...



 LOL

I said we would make 3400 so I was right all along too.

Ha


----------



## lioness (30 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> Yep, you were right Davo, just not sure which one though...
> 
> 11th October
> 
> ...




DAVO,

You obviously have NFI.:bonk:


----------



## MRC & Co (30 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That is a bit of effort there Boggo, but pretty damn funny!


----------



## davo8 (30 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> Yep, you were right Davo, just not sure which one though...




Thanks for that! You obviously have real skill in finding old posts. Looks like I did better than I remembered, although I think you may have missed an old post back in April-May about the crash due in October. This was from a time when the index was above 5000 and some silly people thought that was the bottom.

So, originally I expected 4000-4500 in October, and that got close. 

Once we hit the 4000 and it became clear the fundamentals were getting worse, I updated my forecast to 3200-3500, specifically around 3400. No rocket science -- these are simply my readings of the old support levels coupled with knowledge of fundamentals. That got close too.

Now I'm saying we are in another bear rally. We will revisit 3200-3400 at least once more and most likely it will not hold. If that is so, the next target is about 2900. It may take weeks or months, but definitely by May.

I say that figures of this order are predictable based on fundamentals, not charting. You guys know far more about waves than I ever want to, but I do not accept that your waves have any long term predictive power. For that you need fundamentals.

I reject any possibility of figures like 1500 based on fundamentals as we know them. It will take a major catastrophe such as a US Treasury default or war with China to make that a possibility. Events like that cannot be found in charts or predicted, so there is no point trying.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (30 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Thanks for that! You obviously have real skill in finding old posts. Looks like I did better than I remembered, although I think you may have missed an old post back in April-May about the crash due in October.




r u serious?

all I got from your posts was left no right, no left no right. I figured you were in some type of tail spin! 

I am thinking we will get to 3900 at least on this rally. have a higher out look of 4300. Wavepicker is also thinking a longer rally, with 5000 as a target. I am not in disagreement.

Also seeing good signs in the FX markets EUR and AUD vs the USD putting in bottoms. AUD I am thinking .70 - .77 

see what happens.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (30 November 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> war with China to make that a possibility.




ha ha ha that is classic! 

yeh damn them commies!


----------



## CamKawa (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A few people here are predicting a rally which may well happen. However, not everyone shares your confidence. IB doesn't have one single share to lend out to short with on any top ASX200 company. Food for thought...


----------



## Struzball (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> A few people here are predicting a rally which may well happen. However, not everyone shares your confidence. IB doesn't have one single share to lend out to short with on any top ASX200 company. Food for thought...




Somebody here, don't know who, don't know when, said the bottom will be when the average joe's are all shorting stocks.

If there are none left to short I'd imagine it must be a good sign.

I believe it's a bottom just based on the fact fuel is back under $1, interest rates are falling.  I thought to myself, so where is the problem?  People have more money, which we have to spend on something, as long as companies are around to sell to them they'll profit.  

All the fluff seems to have dissapeared from the market now, so I'm betting the markets drop to 3200 was just something people needed to see before they start piling their cash back into the market.

I'm guessing another drop near 3200 but not lower.


----------



## sails (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> A few people here are predicting a rally which may well happen. However, not everyone shares your confidence. IB doesn't have one single share to lend out to short with on any top ASX200 company. Food for thought...




Another way to look at it - if the market continues to rally, those that are short would need to buy to close if they want out - adding a lot of extra buying pressure.

Even if the market goes down again, they still have to close at some time and it will still bring buying pressure back into the market albeit at lower prices.


----------



## CamKawa (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Struzball said:


> Somebody here, don't know who, don't know when, said the bottom will be when the average joe's are all shorting stocks.
> 
> If there are none left to short I'd imagine it must be a good sign.



Who knows? What I do know is that the psychology in all this is amazing.


----------



## CamKawa (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Struzball said:


> Somebody here, don't know who, don't know when, said the bottom will be when the average joe's are all shorting stocks.



Is the average Joes smart enough to know 

1. what short selling is and 
2. how to short sell. 
3. Can you short sell with Comsuck and ETrade?


----------



## gfresh (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Many joe averages would muck around with CFD's?

Tomorrow could be another catalyst for the market to gradually improve...  if RBA continues to wear the brown pants and lowers rates by another 1%, savings accounts at this time next week are going to be offering at best 4.5% 

With those sort of pissant rates, those with money on the sidelines may well be tempted to start putting more and more cash into the market. After all, not hard to find something that pays a 4.5% fully franked divvy at the moment. 

As soon as the market at least stabilises, this will encourage more and more to start putting their money in, and eventually there will be a firm base of "buy and hold" investors, which may help set a floor for the market.

I'm kind of waiting on a print of a higher-low (say 3500), and I'm sure others are as well before committing, and well, that's probably the start of XAO uptrend . If not, wait until the next attempt at 3000 or wherever that may be.


----------



## Nyden (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> Many joe averages would muck around with CFD's?
> 
> Tomorrow could be another catalyst for the market to gradually improve...  if RBA continues to wear the brown pants and lowers rates by another 1%, savings accounts at this time next week are going to be offering at best 4.5%
> 
> ...




4.5% (even if in reality is negative - hopefully deflation will kick in though ) is still a damn-sight better than -20% though; which can happen over a matter of days in this market. So, I really don't expect a massive pour of folk into the market, not yet at least.

People in cash are in cash for a reason - they're waiting the volatility to end, and for an uptrend to begin.


----------



## Nyden (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I need to find a better way to entertain myself these holidays 

Anyone else seeing us go green by the close today? Certainly seems to be a convincing slow move up ... and the lack of large swings seems encouraging (to me) as well. Couldn't resist having a little nibble  Watch it go down 120pts now


----------



## Sean K (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

DJI has had a good bounce. 

Bear market rally? Suckers rally?

Good opportunity to take some off the table?

*Stocks Have Best 5 Days in 75 Years*

Is DJI of course, but I'm sure XAO has had a good week or so.

Probably just a speed bump right? 

Destined to break the 50% ish correction too ...... 

Or, it's factored in...


----------



## MRC & Co (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> DJI has had a good bounce.
> 
> Bear market rally? Suckers rally?
> 
> ...




Yeh, that was my thought too Kennas.

But this is traditionally a very bullish time of year, started right on time, mid-late November.  Goes through to start of Jan from memory, according to monthly seasonality.

So I reckon it's either gonna go up, or down.


----------



## Geoff (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> So I reckon it's either gonna go up, or down.




You'll have egg on your face when it stays exactly the same!!


----------



## davo8 (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> all I got from your posts was left no right, no left no right. I figured you were in some type of tail spin!
> 
> I am thinking we will get to 3900 at least on this rally. have a higher out look of 4300. Wavepicker is also thinking a longer rally, with 5000 as a target. I am not in disagreement.
> 
> Also seeing good signs in the FX markets EUR and AUD vs the USD putting in bottoms. AUD I am thinking .70 - .77




Ok, then I'll make it simple just for you. It's a bear market. The trend is down. Clear enough?

The trend was down in Feb and it was down in May and it was down in Sep and it's down now. Not sideways, not bottom, not ranging but down. Trade the rallies if you like, but keep near the exits.

I would expect 4000 rather than 5000, but that's wave stuff and I don't do waves. I do fundamentals, and they're bad and getting worse.

There are no good signs for the AUD. It will track the CRB for now, and that hasn't recovered. However, the USD has peaked and may fall back so we could get a higher AUD eventually. 

If you want a tip, try GOLD.


----------



## tasmart (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> If you want a tip, try GOLD.




hmm - Gold heading down suddenly! You shouldn't have said that

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Doesn't seem to be any news around as to why the drop??????


----------



## Real1ty (1 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tasmart said:


> hmm - Gold heading down suddenly! You shouldn't have said that
> 
> http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
> 
> Doesn't seem to be any news around as to why the drop??????




Well not in an XAO analysis thread anyway


----------



## Aussiejeff (2 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> Well not in an XAO analysis thread anyway




Well, well. No-one bothering to make comment on the pathetic performance of the XAO today and perhaps where to from here?

Is it a case of only dead-cat bounces being worthy of hype? Shame, optimists, shame. There are always two sides to a story. 

Every share market around the planet has now finished with a final hour dive. No short cover rallies. No signs of bounce back. 

Surprise, surprise ... we are now reliably informed that the US has been in recession for the past year and that IR cuts are no longer possible. Well, blow me down with a feather, but IMHO that spells further trouble for the planet.

Dead cats or no dead cats, I'll tip the XAO to hit 3,000 (or less) after trading re-opens in the New Year after the Xmas break.

Have a Merry Xmas.

:santa:


----------



## MRC & Co (2 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Geoff said:


> You'll have egg on your face when it stays exactly the same!!




ha ha, time to write some straddles or butterflies or whatever they are then!


----------



## tcoates (2 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Well, well. No-one bothering to make comment on the pathetic performance of the XAO today and perhaps where to from here?



Given the performance today though the direction was obvious - Down.

Using monthly pivot points, over the last few months the XAO has been trading between the support (or lower) and the monthly pivot point.

So unless it gets above 3720 (or thereabouts) it ain't going upwards, and support is at 3152. 

Santa rally? (Or will the Grinch steal the Christmas rally?)

Tim

PS. All the while I will sit on the sidelines watching the chaos unfold.


----------



## Aussiejeff (2 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tcoates said:


> Santa rally? (Or will the Grinch steal the Christmas rally?)




I think we've been $crooged!


----------



## cbacamden (2 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You guys that are so sure that the direction is down - are you trading that way ??

I have only been on this forum for a little while, but I am getting the idea that 60-70 % of the members seem to be experts at everything and yet dont really seem to trade much of anything.

Is anyone actually trading the xjo at the moment ??

I still have my position open (long XJO , short BHP - Warrants) - and showing an increasing profit as BHP comes back more in line with XJO (which obviously I hope will continue to happen over next few weeks)

Maybe its just me - but Im not going to express my thoughts on a subject unless im willing to put my money behind it.


----------



## shaunQ (2 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> I have only been on this forum for a little while, but I am getting the idea that 60-70 % of the members seem to be experts at everything and yet dont really seem to trade much of anything.




I think very few people would consider themselves an expert on this forum. Whether or not they are trading is irrelevant, perhaps the smartest people aren't. Who are you to judge? Personally, if someone continually posts there trade as you have I consider it just to be ramping and is of very little interest, especially on an XAO Analysis thread.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

cbacamden I guess the real question is does having some skin in the game make the comments any more relevant??

Even more important question is...does that mean that the comment is more likely to be correct.

I find the people that actually trade have a much lower accuracy level as far as calls. It aint about being right. IMHO


----------



## skyQuake (2 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cbacamden said:


> I still have my position open (long XJO , short BHP - Warrants) - and showing an increasing profit as BHP comes back more in line with XJO (which obviously I hope will continue to happen over next few weeks)




unless you're trading barriers you're probably getting ripped.



> I find the people that actually trade have a much lower accuracy level as far as calls. It aint about being right. IMHO




Hahahah we all used to be armchair experts! Its a whole new ball game once you're trading. Money management becomes far more important than accurate calls.


----------



## IFocus (2 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cbacamden said:


> *You guys that are so sure that the direction is down *- are you trading that way ??
> 
> I have only been on this forum for a little while, but I am getting the idea that 60-70 % of the members seem to be experts at everything and yet dont really seem to trade much of anything.
> 
> ...





See weekly chart below of XAO the trend is down........would you have gone short on the way up? why go long on the way down?

Putting your money on a good trading method is the go opinions and thoughts count for nothing IMHO.

Comments here on the XAO are good fun and I enjoy the comments no matter how good or bad.

.


----------



## cbacamden (2 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry if anyone found my posting of trades out of line. I tried to share the good and the bad (trying only to show the relevant trades in the forum)

Anyway - it would appear that this forum is not for me. Thanks to those that shared and put up with my ways.

All the best with trading

Bye Bye 

ShaunQ - I must have hif a nerve - he he . I dont see you in the Dec stock picking (I wonder why) - yet another expert


----------



## >Apocalypto< (2 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Ok, then I'll make it simple just for you. It's a bear market. The trend is down. Clear enough?
> 
> The trend was down in Feb and it was down in May and it was down in Sep and it's down now. Not sideways, not bottom, not ranging but down. Trade the rallies if you like, but keep near the exits.
> 
> ...




well if you had said that in the first place I would have not had any issues. 

so that's what we call this market. a bear market well I just learned something.

disagree on the aud still see it moving to .70- 79 cents. If it breaks .6060 then I am wrong. support on the chart with a double bottom to higher low. If anything it may settle into a range that tops at 70.

sell is a hedge i am long (Demo)

but that's not xao related sorry folks.


----------



## davo8 (3 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> well if you had said that in the first place I would have not had any issues.




I've been called a perma-bear since the beginning of the year, but maybe I didn't make it clear enough in this thread. Here it's mostly chartists, but charts only show what the market knows. I think the market has underestimated the severity of the problems, so the bear is bigger and deeper than you can read.

At the same time, it doesn't happen overnight and those old levels mean things, so you get bounces on the way down. Charts might help on that.

Sub-3000 is definitely on the cards, but crazy figures like 1500 are not. I can make a guess at how low the next step goes once we see the next round of company profits. 

I'm looking for bottoms in good companies with good yields as interest rates drop, but probably not soon and they definitely won't be banks! eg AGL is still doing just fine.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (3 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Folks,

An observation and some thoughts:

Being a relatively new member to ASF, I have seen a growing number of negative threads in this forum that hammer on people's trading analysis, methodology, styles etc. 

I looked back at some of the posts in this thread before the decline started on the XAO (over 12 months back) and saw that the posts were generally very polite, funny, useful and enjoyable (there's probably a few there that I didn't see that weren't so nice). But ultimately the level of negativity was low.

The way I'm approaching this bear market (and forum) is: I know the cycle of the market is down as a result of the declining social mood and it will probably get a lot worse. So rather than join in and hammer on people that disagree with me (and there's plenty that do) - I'll just continue to do what I'm doing, if there are people in the forum that gain value out of what I provide then that's a good thing. 

In addition, I have learned much from people's discussions here, trading strategy, wins and losses alike. I really don't care if people are traders or not - what I'm looking for is valuable information that could benefit my strategy, others I pass it to, or perhaps additional ideas I can give you to consider. I like to read about the wins and losses, what does and doesn't work and I accept not everyone will agree or disagree with what's posted. 

There are a heap of people that visit this forum seeking insights, ideas, innovations that they may successfully use - or want to discuss further with you in a meaningful way, and is ultimately the basis behind this forum. But it is the members that will decide this in their posts.


----------



## noirua (3 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

:topic  A very busy thread is "XAO Analysis" and is frequented by those with stacks of grey matter. However, too busy maybe to vote for ASF in the very important forum vote that concludes in about 3 days time.  If you are able to spare a moment to vote this is the link: http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html

Thanks for your time - noi


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Done:iamwithst


----------



## joeyr46 (3 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Folks,
> 
> An observation and some thoughts:
> 
> ...




Reading thru the threads I've noticed that there is a tendency to be more aggressive lately and closed minded but everything i've learnt bfrom elliotwave says this is as it should be and it's going to get worse and just bto throw in another prediction if this is a longer term bear market try 450!
Someone said the XAO should bottom around 3400 because it was a different market since the inflation of the 70's and 80s That's exactly why its going down a lot further in the medium to long term to correct the inflation (or governments being dishonest) so we,ve got to recognise what is going on short term with a longer term perspective and try to stay ahead of the game.
Watching social mood should give us the edge on which wave were inand so far for such a small bear market the mood has really swung even the government is panicking. there is no way this is anywhere near other than a short term (up to 8mths ) Bottom


----------



## joeyr46 (3 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

of course thats only an opinion or speculation and we can only trade the short term moves and allow winners to run so have to be ready to change with the trend


----------



## MRC & Co (3 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



joeyr46 said:


> of course thats only an opinion or speculation and we can only trade the short term moves and allow winners to run so have to be ready to change with the trend




Depends on the market.

I would think, trading from a daily (as most here do, so correct me if I'm wrong, as I don't trade from a daily), you would probably be better off letting a winner win at the moment, as opposed to letting it run.


----------



## Porper (4 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not posted for a while but nothing has changed from my post in September.Still the same count but further advanced.

Below is my preffered count although there is a less likely (i.m.o) count which has the latest low as being the completion of the wave C down.If that's the case the low is in.

I strongly favour another leg down as time wise it seems to fit better.


----------



## wayneL (4 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Not posted for a while but nothing has changed from my post in September.Still the same count but further advanced.
> 
> Below is my preffered count although there is a less likely (i.m.o) count which has the latest low as being the completion of the wave C down.If that's the case the low is in.
> 
> I strongly favour another leg down as time wise it seems to fit better.




It's nice to see a sensible count Porper.


----------



## Aussiejeff (4 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> It's nice to see a sensible count Porper.




Especially with some of the gyrations of the XAO lately making absolutely NO SENSE WHATSOEVER from a real world perspective.

I'm getting giddy from watching the roller coaster ride of sucker rallies & crashes. There still seems to be no shortage of guts 'n glory types declaring "this is the bottom - I'm buying big time".

Hmmm. Is there a Gamblers Anon link here? Maybe Joe should consider providing one!


----------



## Porper (4 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> It's nice to see a sensible count Porper.




I'm surprised I haven't been called Satan yet and had a deluge of abuse cast my way for even suggesting the bottom isn't in 

If I was a long termer I would be looking at selected buying  on the next dip.Nasdaq has plummeted 54%  from the high.

Fundamentally governments around the world seem to be going down the path of creating another bubble with all these bail outs, incentives and throwing money at the problem.This is the last thing they should be doing.Of course this means that the stock market could be pumping again until a few years down the track when everybody realises we are in the *hit again but 10 times worse that the *hit we are in now.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (4 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> Fundamentally governments around the world seem to be going down the path of creating another bubble with all these bail outs, incentives and throwing money at the problem.This is the last thing they should be doing.




Spot on Porper. They are doing it because pumping money has seemed to work in the past. This time, I believe the environment has changed significantly enough that confidence and trust has/is deteriorating rapidly and as a result we'll see a rocky ride for some time.

 I can only hope that through this process, corruption and system abuse will be weeded out - on a global scale (could be wishful thinking  )


----------



## wavepicker (4 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey Oz,

What's your take on the US indices at present? The EW picture seems more clearer to me ATM in the SP500 for instance compared to the XAO which has not followed the recent rally as much just yet.

Personally I think the major wave of selling (I have labelled wave A red) that started 13 months ago is done and a multi month rally is underway. Obviously there needs to be some major base buidling happening here, but I am expecting another wall of worry to be climbed back up to the 50% retrace of the decline in the next 12-18 months.

Would be interested in you views.

Cheers


----------



## OzWaveGuy (4 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wavepicker said:


> What's your take on the US indices at present?




Hi WP,

The count looks real good - it's almost the same as the alternate count I have been following. 

The juncture we're at right now is significant - if the the markets break above the previous wave 4's and higher then your count will play out. If not, and another low comes into play (probably a couple of months away) then I would see it as completing 5 waves down - and the consequences of 5 waves down on an index is significantly bearish for the longer term. 

The last several weeks have been hard to determine on the S&P500 with overlapping waves, but I think the way you have it is spot on. For my primary count the brown wave 4 of A is still underway (as a possible unfolding triangle), and another low is expected once the triangle completes (down to the 3000 or less on the XAO).


----------



## chops_a_must (4 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Here is some commentary from CNBC tonight from me and Roger Montgomery on the longer term outlook...
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=948723164&play=1




Thanks. Missed it myself but wanted to catch it.

Next time, could you get Karen Tso's phone number for me?

Cheers,

Thanks in advance,

Chops.


----------



## MRC & Co (4 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Next time, could you get Karen Tso's phone number for me?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Thanks in advance,




ROLFMAO!


----------



## davo8 (5 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



joeyr46 said:


> Someone said the XAO should bottom around 3400 because it was a different market since the inflation of the 70's and 80s That's exactly why its going down a lot further in the medium to long term to correct the inflation (or governments being dishonest) so we,ve got to recognise what is going on short term with a longer term perspective and try to stay ahead of the game.




That could have been me. I'd been expecting support at around this level (3200-3500) but it probably won't hold. It can go lower, but not all that much without some devastating change in fundamentals. The practical minimum is a market PE of about 8, and you can do your own sums on that.

My other point was that the old trend line is now meaningless because of inflation. If we got hyperinflation (we won't) the All Ords could go to 1 million and still be worth nothing and it would mean nothing.

I don't understand why you would think inflation means the index is going lower. Perhaps you'd like to try to explain that.


----------



## wayneL (5 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Thanks. Missed it myself but wanted to catch it.
> 
> Next time, could you get Karen Tso's phone number for me?
> 
> ...




Jesus! I haven't heard an Aussie accent for ages, that was a shock.

Funny how the Art Laffers of the world aren't laughing at bearish commentary any more. LOL


----------



## chops_a_must (5 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Laffer... what an ironic name.


----------



## IFocus (5 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> ROLFMAO!




Ditto


----------



## Sean K (5 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Here is some commentary from CNBC tonight from me and Roger Montgomery on the longer term outlook...
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=948723164&play=1



Thanks Nick.

You almost sound like you know what you're talking about. 

And when you get that number can you send it to me too.

Cheers!


----------



## wayneL (5 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> And when you get that number can you send it to me too.
> 
> Cheers!




You're all too late. I got the kid next door to hack into the ATO and get all details, I'm just about to call now.


----------



## nunthewiser (5 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry guys but none of you can have my number

your sincerely

Kazza


----------



## Grinder (5 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Sorry guys but none of you can have my number
> 
> your sincerely
> 
> Kazza




Nice one!


----------



## TheAbyss (5 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It looks like we are not alone in having a fancy for the brisbane lassie.

She came 20th in a Sunherald survey on "The most f---able people on Australian television this year "

http://blogs.sunherald.com.au/whoweare/archives/2008/08/

And for those who would like a peek at the girl in question.

http://www.mediaspy.org/forum/index.php?showtopic=992&pid=538226&st=550&#entry538226


----------



## Porper (5 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



TheAbyss said:


> She came 20th in a Sunherald survey on "The most f---able people on Australian television this year "





I take it you mean most favourable people on T.V. 

What does that mean ?


----------



## nomore4s (9 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO starting to look bullish to me, a lot of charts looking like they want to go up to me atm.

Guessing we may get an Xmas rally after all. If we can get above 3700 this week I can see us having a rally towards the 4300 area maybe as high as 4900-5000 if we can get some strong follow through but not so sure about such a strong rally, but you never know.

Of course in the current climate it could all change overnight


----------



## Cartman (9 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A lot of volume on the Oz Futs last friday night during the US session pointed to a push up today/tonight.  The volume tonight on our futs and the Dow is fairly tame in comparison at the moment.  If the Dow does 9000 2nite but has no volume follow through the rally could be short lived.


----------



## Aussiejeff (9 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> XAO starting to look bullish to me, a lot of charts looking like they want to go up to me atm.
> 
> Guessing we may get an Xmas rally after all. If we can get above 3700 this week I can see us having a rally towards the 4300 area maybe as high as 4900-5000 if we can get some strong follow through but not so sure about such a strong rally, but you never know.
> 
> Of course in the current climate it could all change overnight




It's time for the XAO to pooh-pooh all that stoopid gloom 'n doom eco-data and rise towards the heavens.

Prolly keep rising until late Jan-early Feb '09 when the '08 Dec Qtr company horror reports come in.

Good luck and a Merry Xmas to those punters wishing to make hay while the sun shines!

:santa:


----------



## OzWaveGuy (9 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What a market!

If the low at 12:42pm @3502 holds today, then I'm anticipating a bigger push higher with more subdivisions pushing past the recent 3670 high.

Breaking below the 3502 mark and heading under 3490 would indicate to me that the XAO is acting correctively with overlapping 3-wave structures, with possibly more downside to come.


----------



## davo8 (9 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> It's time for the XAO to pooh-pooh all that stoopid gloom 'n doom eco-data and rise towards the heavens.
> 
> Prolly keep rising until late Jan-early Feb '09 when the '08 Dec Qtr company horror reports come in.




Yes, we're due a good retracement rally. Around 6800-3200+1600=4200 would be nice. I'm sure I've still got a couple of old things around here I can sell!


----------



## jonojpsg (10 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Yes, we're due a good retracement rally. Around 6800-3200+1600=4200 would be nice. I'm sure I've still got a couple of old things around here I can sell!




Hmm, except that = 5200 which would be even nicer


----------



## tech/a (10 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Update.
Been away a while noticed the Elliot boys got their 3200 after many months.
Some fluke eh!

To NOW


----------



## Rockon2 (10 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Update.
> Been away a while noticed the Elliot boys got their 3200 after many months.
> Some fluke eh!
> 
> To NOW







Awwww Give em some credit 

wd I reckon .


----------



## OzWaveGuy (10 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Update.
> Been away a while noticed the Elliot boys got their 3200 after many months.
> Some fluke eh!
> 
> To NOW




Come on TA - Can't you give us a better chart than that?


----------



## Boggo (10 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I get 3673 at that point you have marked on your chart tech/a.

Assuming it jumps that little hurdle then up to 4200 could be a chance ??

My 

(click to expand)


----------



## OzWaveGuy (10 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> I get 3673 at that point you have marked on your chart tech/a.
> 
> Assuming it jumps that little hurdle then up to 4200 could be a chance ??
> 
> ...




I have a slightly different count, but the push up into your coloured area should be similar. Some numbers:

The 1st leg up from the 21st to the 28th is approx 467 points on the XAO. Some possible targets for the second leg up are:
a. 3900 (100% of 1st leg up)
b. 4076 (138% of 1st leg up)
c. 4188 (161% of 1st leg up)
d. 4297 (38.2% retracement of the leg down from the 19 May 08)

In addition, social mood around XMAS is very positive, and every year in the last 10 a Christmas rally has materialized (except at the end of 2000) usually starting mid December or sooner.

Getting to 4076 (138%) would place the correction at the apex of the previous wave 4 triangle. I'm expecting a 5 wave advance on this second leg, which should make it a little easier to calculate the ending point.


----------



## rub92me (10 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> In addition, social mood around XMAS is very positive, and every year in the last 10 a Christmas rally has materialized (except at the end of 2000) usually starting mid December or sooner.



I don't think we had much of a Christmas rally last year either  Dropped about 500 points mid December and never really recovered.


----------



## skyQuake (10 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



rub92me said:


> I don't think we had much of a Christmas rally last year either  Dropped about 500 points mid December and never really recovered.




Haha yeh, Well last 10 years barring 2000 was pretty much bull mkt too.


----------



## MRC & Co (10 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Haha yeh, Well last 10 years barring 2000 was pretty much bull mkt too.




lol, yeh, figures can really be taken out of context if your not careful.

Like the, markets always go up in the long-run notion.  Period of industrialization, downsizing, streamlining, multi-skilling, mass production, technological advancement, living off debt.  Only so much you can prune it back and load it full of explosives!


----------



## white_goodman (10 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Like the, markets always go up in the long-run notion.





dont think they believe this in Japan


----------



## dhukka (10 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> In addition, social mood around XMAS is very positive, and every year in the last 10 a Christmas rally has materialized (except at the end of 2000) usually starting mid December or sooner.




You mean like that great Christmas rally we had last year?


----------



## dhukka (10 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Or how about the Christmas rally of 2002?


----------



## davo8 (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jonojpsg said:


> Hmm, except that = 5200 which would be even nicer




Sorry, I got the arithmetic wrong. 50% retrace is more like
(6800+3300)/2 = 5050.

Please note the congestion levels just under 5000, so a retrace to 4900 would be a reasonable target.

If it happens, I'm sure there will be some wave to match it after the event.


----------



## Sean K (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Or how about the Christmas rally of 2002?



How was 05, 06, 07? I can't tell really well by my charts but look like they went up. So, 3 out of the 5 years mentioned there's been a rally. Therefore, there must be a very big chance a Christmas rally this year.  LOL 

Actually, there are some stats on this somewhere, probably in Radge's bottom draw. Perhaps it is just a fallacy, but the fact the market expects it to happen, probably gives it at least a 50% chance....


----------



## dhukka (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> How was 05, 06, 07? I can't tell really well by my charts but look like they went up. So, 3 out of the 5 years mentioned there's been a rally. Therefore, there must be a very big chance a Christmas rally this year.  LOL
> 
> Actually, there are some stats on this somewhere, probably in Radge's bottom draw. Perhaps it is just a fallacy, but the fact the market expects it to happen, probably gives it at least a 50% chance....




Wasn't 07 last year? The XAO finished December higher than it began the month 18 times in the last 24 years, not a bad record, but since when is a sample size of 24 of any significance?


----------



## Sean K (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Wasn't 07 last year? The XAO finished December higher than it began the month 18 times in the last 24 years, not a bad record, but since when is a sample size of 24 of any significance?



Hm, the years on my charts must be wrong.

I thought our sample size of 5 was sufficient. lol


----------



## OzWaveGuy (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Holidays usually drive positive social mood and are in turn usually positive for the market.

For example: sampling the gain/loss on the XAO of the previous 10 days before April 25th (ANZAC Day) over the last 11years shows a gain every year (however minor) except in 2000 (which did gain if you take the sample from the 18th April and would be the 2nd highest gain).


----------



## amory (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

maybe we need to define what we mean by X'mas rally.

that sudden surge just before or into the new year has been known to peter out 3 days into january, or by mid-march (the "ides of march") of to flatten out or to continue on upwards, thanks to bullish market conditions.

but the surge does frequently occur & this year we want to very much take the Obama=hope factor into account.  and the carmaker bailout, if it goes through.  and the inauguration ... when is that again, january sometime?

currently, the Dow is at a crossroads & hard to predict its direction in the medium term.  but that mid-dec/x'mas rally is highly possible.  whether a firming POG & a weakening dollar or other realities end up casting doubt & confusion, remains to be seen.

sorry just noticed it's the XAO under discussion.  but I'll leave it as it is, on the assumption that we will continue to follow the Dow on its major moves as we've always done.  the last few days are something of an aberration, mainly because the Dow has turned uncertain & directionless & left us without a clue.


----------



## Nick Radge (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Actually, there are some stats on this somewhere, probably in Radge's bottom draw




Yes, stats in the bottom draw but unfortunately not much upstairs where it counts...  

Since 1980:

*Buying Dec 1st, Selling Jan 1st*
Win% 75%
Avge Win: 1.75%

Interestingly the two largest gains occurred during the early 90's bear market, albeit a mature bear back then. Dec 1992 saw a gain of 7.03% and Dec 1993 a gain of 8.17%. 
*
Buying Dec 1st, Selling Feb 1st*
Win% 78.5%
Avge Win: 2.33%

Holding through to Feb increases returns (due to long term upward bias in market) but is also increases volatility of returns. Last year this same period had a 13% decline.
*
What about buying in December only if November was positive?*
Win% 76.5%
Avge Win: 2.18%

*And if November was negative?*
Win% 71%
Avge Win: 1.07%



_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Sean K (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nick Radge said:


> Yes, stats in the bottom draw but unfortunately not much upstairs where it counts...



I've got to get myself one of those bottom draws.


----------



## wayneL (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I've been looking everywhere for a missing "er". Has anyone seen it?

Ok look! There it is:



> draw⋅*er *    [drawr for 1, 2; draw-er for 3–6] Show IPA Pronunciation
> –noun
> 1.	a sliding, lidless, horizontal compartment, as in a piece of furniture, that may be drawn out in order to gain access to it.




</extremely pedantic>


----------



## Sean K (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I've been looking everywhere for a missing "er". Has anyone seen it?
> 
> Ok look! There it is:
> 
> </extremely pedantic>



I think we spell it the Australian way Wayne. You stinking Pom! :


----------



## Nick Radge (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

er...buy...er....sell...er...doh...


----------



## MrBurns (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Any of you experts have any idea if we're past the bottom and levelling out or stabilizing yet ? seems pretty stable over the past week.


----------



## Aussiejeff (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Any of you experts have any idea if we're past the bottom and levelling out or stabilizing yet ? seems pretty stable over the past week.




You must have seen a false bottom :arsch:

Stable? The horses bolted a long time ago. :horse:  :horse:  :horse:

Glad to be of help.


----------



## Sean K (11 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

aj, one bad half day doesn't need the poor horse to be flogged.

Give it a chance. 

Crikey, could end up green knowing this market!

On the other hand ......


----------



## davo8 (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Any of you experts have any idea if we're past the bottom and levelling out or stabilizing yet ? seems pretty stable over the past week.




That's an easy one. No.

We've touched a low point of around 3400 (daily close) and we have a bear rally. The trend is down, and we'll be back to 3400 again, and then probably lower. 

The rally (on traditional TA) should run to around 4900 (resistance  level) or until it hits the 200 day MA, or somewhere else, unless or until some really bad news intervenes.

Repeat after me: this is NOT the bottom.


----------



## Aussiejeff (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What the hell happened to trash the XAO in the last 45 mins? Can't see any news wires that might give a reason?


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSJfTQjwCjrs&refer=home

Then This (S&P500 futs)


----------



## mattlaw (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The bailout of GM apparently isnt going ahead

Auto Bailout Negotiations Fail in Senate, Reid Says (Update1) 
Email | Print | A A A 

By Brian Faler and Jeff Green

Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Senate negotiations for a U.S. automaker bailout plan collapsed, in a blow to General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, which may run out of cash early next year. 

“It’s over with,” Majority Leader Harry Reid said on the Senate floor in Washington. “I dread looking at Wall Street tomorrow. It’s not going to be a pleasant sight.” 

Reid said the Senate will take a procedural vote tonight on a House-passed plan, though he doesn’t expect it to be approved. 

“This is going to be a very bad Christmas” for many people, Reid said. “The time for talking on this is over. We should vote and move on to something else.” 

Asian stocks and U.S. index futures immediately began falling after Reid’s comments. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slumped 2.2 percent to 86.13 as of 12:33 p.m. Tokyo time, while March futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 3.4 percent. 

Connecticut Democrat Christopher Dodd, who was involved in the negotiations, said the final unresolved issue was a Republican demand that unionized autoworkers accept a reduction in wages next year, rather than later, to match those of U.S. autoworkers who work for foreign-owned companies, such as Toyota Motor Corp. 

“More than saddened, I’m worried this evening about what we’re doing with an iconic industry,” Dodd said. “In the midst of deeply troubling economic times we are going to add to that substantially.” 

Republican Bob Corker of Tennessee, who negotiated with Dodd, said, “I think there’s still a way to make this happen.” 

To contact the reporters on this story: Nicholas Johnston in Washington at njohnston3@bloomberg.net


----------



## CamKawa (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> What the hell happened to trash the XAO in the last 45 mins? Can't see any news wires that might give a reason?



That's just to blow your stops. Murphys Law says it'll probably go up in a minute.


----------



## Aussiejeff (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL. We are told over and over that stockmarkets are "forward looking" and tend to price in expectations. 

So, if that respected mantra is to be believed, then I'm shocked at how the apparently naive market has reacted to the extremely reasonable possibility and even expectation that the US auto bailout would fail at this hurdle.

How fickle.

Edit: Now the XAO is rising as sharply as it just fell. Reason? Toss a dart?


----------



## chops_a_must (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I would have thought the markets expected it to be a foregone conclusion personally. After all the money they have put everywhere else.


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> How fickle.
> 
> Edit: Now the XAO is rising as sharply as it just fell. Reason? Toss a dart?




Ever done any trading Jeff ??


----------



## Aussiejeff (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Ever done any trading Jeff ??




Aye, Cap'n!



But I've abandoned ye leaky galleon fer tha time being. Keepin' ma powder dry, matey.

Well, that is the powder I've got left.... some got damp and useless.


----------



## tcoates (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I would have to agree with chops...  

... expected it to have gone through. I do not recall any negative reports about the deal until today.



> Now the XAO is rising as sharply as it just fell. Reason? Toss a dart?




On the reaction though... down and now up. If there is only thing that I have learnt in the past while is the reactions tend to be a bit over the top - react and then think. Down to fast and then back to equilibrium of some sort. The same applies to up moves.

Tim


----------



## TheAbyss (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The vote was always going to fail first time around according to the talking heads on CNBC. Apparently the senate want to see some chapter 11 action then they will support and help them work there way back out of administration so that they learn something from the mess rather than give them a cash bail out an dthey learn nothuing other than they are bullet proof as the government has their backs.

Watch POO go up on the back of  a weakening $US while they reinvent the bailout etc plus the OPEC meeting on the 17th. If it wasnt for this bail out failing STO and WPL would have had a great day today imo.


----------



## chops_a_must (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

They need to get rid of the legacy costs full stop. All of them.

It's as simple as that.


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



TheAbyss said:


> Watch POO go up on the back of  a weakening $US while they reinvent the bailout etc plus the OPEC meeting on the 17th. If it wasnt for this bail out failing STO and WPL would have had a great day today imo.




Really?? it just lost $2 in a blink. and the US$ is gaining!


----------



## TheAbyss (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Really?? it just lost $2 in a blink. and the US$ is gaining!





I mustn't be seeing the up to the minute data you are TH. 

Oil is up significantly since its recent lows is my piont and it will increase further if the OPEC reduce as predicted. That plus the billions being spent by the US must impact on the $US which in turn will see POO and Gold increase which we have already started to see.

All just my opinion TH.

Oil as i see it is

Brent crude
(IPE)
February 2009
($US per bbl.) 45.04 0.99 +2.25% 10/12 4:00 PM  
Time: 1 week | 1 month | 6 months | 1 year 
Last: 45.04Settle: n/aHigh: 47.68Low: 43.56   
Crude oil
(NYMEX)
January 2009
($US per bbl.) 47.98 4.46 +10.25% 12/12 6:28 AM


----------



## chops_a_must (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The USD has been crumbling on the expectation the US will go on printing money indefinitely.

The halt of that expectation will put a cat amongst the pigeons.

And all that is now yesterday's results. Likely to be reversed in one session.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> The USD has been crumbling on the expectation the US will go on printing money indefinitely.
> 
> The halt of that expectation will put a cat amongst the pigeons.
> 
> And all that is now yesterday's results. Likely to be reversed in one session.




Quite the strong technical break on the USD monthly chart here chops.


----------



## MRC & Co (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> Quite the strong technical break on the USD monthly chart here chops.




Yeh, trendlines like that can be a very useful tool.

But still making LHs and LLs.  If this could form a HL and a HH now, could be something.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, trendlines like that can be a very useful tool.
> 
> But still making LHs and LLs.  If this could form a HL and a HH now, could be something.




hey MRC,

that's the million dollar pattern hey.

you have to remember with that chart that is breaking out of a bear market from 2001! 

I totally agree we need a HL to confirm it. I am watching the price point of 80-75 as a high importance area. we will have our answers in months to come aye!

Cheers


----------



## MRC & Co (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeh, interesting chart, thx.

Markets are surely fun to watch for the moment.  Nikkei today had a several % flick in a few seconds at open!  WTF, never see an index of that magnitude do something like that!


----------



## drsmith (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dow futures look quiet grim at the moment.

Over the past 12 weeks the all ords has fallen 6 times on a Monday. Of those 6 times it has subsequently fallen 5 times on the following Tuesday. Currently the index is about 120 points above it's lowest close.

Discalimer:
A day is a long time in economics at the moment let alone a Friday and a weekend for US politicians to scratch their heads over auto bailouts before the Australian market re-opens on Monday. If our market does fall on Monday, past trends cannot be relied upon as an indicator of future performance.


----------



## TheAbyss (12 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Really?? it just lost $2 in a blink. and the US$ is gaining!




Note to self, think harder. Less cars equals less oil required. Not sure how i missed that correlation.

Another lesson learned.


----------



## CamKawa (15 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone thinking that XAO may sell off after the auto maker bail-out is announced?


----------



## saiter (15 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> Anyone thinking that XAO may sell off after the auto maker bail-out is announced?




Well it looks like a failed flag to me, but if the XAO ends up closing on the opposite end in the next few days then that'd be a _failed_ failed signal... (bullish?)


----------



## MS+Tradesim (17 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Big picture food for thought....

Since 1900 there have only been 4 occasions where shares fell for two consecutive years. In 13 instances a negative year was followed by a positive year roughly equal or greater in %age terms (open to close, NOT high to low). In the last 28 years every negative year has been followed by a positive year of roughly equal or greater magnitude (open to close). On the other side, 3 out of the 4 consecutive year falls over the century involved similar sized drops. This year so far, we are down about the 45% mark which would make it the worst year in terms of open to close.

On the side of going up we have central banks running the presses hot leading to an inflation driven recovery in asset prices (though possibly still losing value in real terms). On the negative side the real damage to the global economies is such that a second falling year is a very real possibility. 

[rhetorical]
So next year do we go up by >= 45% or down another 30-50? Bets?  
[/rhetorical]

Source for second chart


----------



## Naked shorts (17 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> Big picture food for thought....
> 
> Since 1900 there have only been 4 occasions where shares fell for two consecutive years. In 13 instances a negative year was followed by a positive year roughly equal or greater in %age terms (open to close, NOT high to low). In the last 28 years every negative year has been followed by a positive year of roughly equal or greater magnitude (open to close). On the other side, 3 out of the 4 consecutive year falls over the century involved similar sized drops. This year so far, we are down about the 45% mark which would make it the worst year in terms of open to close.
> 
> ...





You do know that they change the companies that are included in the index? it isn't a true indicator of the overall market.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/po..._asxallo/2,3,2,8,0,0,0,0,0,4,1,0,0,0,0,0.html


----------



## jono_oz (17 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey guys just wondering if anyone can explain why this is happening and why it is not talked about in the media??
It seems since the middle of November the XAO has just stalled while the rest of the world has gone generally up.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (17 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> You do know that they change the companies that are included in the index? it isn't a true indicator of the overall market.




Ummm....yes, I do know that and for this purpose it's irrelevant. It's useful as a sentiment indicator. Regardless of the specific makeup of a broad market index in any given year, it will still *broadly* and roughly reflect how shares as a group are being treated.


----------



## waz (17 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was wondering the same thing and could not find an answer.
Which is why I have gone short on the DJ and FTSE and long on the Aussie200.

At the moment I think its on of the best pair trade.

So far its been paying off.


----------



## Sunder (17 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



waz said:


> I was wondering the same thing and could not find an answer.
> Which is why I have gone short on the DJ and FTSE and long on the Aussie200.
> 
> At the moment I think its on of the best pair trade.
> ...




I thought it was because as a generalisation, Australia, as a primary producer, gets hit hardest and is the last to recover when the reason for the hit is production based. 

So while we might have done well out of the Asian Crisis and the Tech wreck, which were finance and bubble related, this one, which is global recession based, is hitting us harder.


----------



## Naked shorts (17 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> it will still *broadly* and *roughly* reflect how shares as a group are being treated.




Your right about the rough part. It can be deceiving to people because they think the whole market is going up and everything will be rosey from now on when instead the old companies going bankrupt get taken off (but are still in the market, have paying customers and employees)...and the high growth ones get added.


----------



## chops_a_must (17 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> I thought it was because as a generalisation, Australia, as a primary producer, gets hit hardest and is the last to recover when the reason for the hit is production based.
> 
> So while we might have done well out of the Asian Crisis and the Tech wreck, which were finance and bubble related, this one, which is global recession based, is hitting us harder.




I think you'll find in an inflationary environment we will generally do well.

A lot of things that are core, agribusiness, gold, basic minerals that should theoretically do well in high inflationary periods, the utmost basics, we produce a lot of.

And it seems to be this that is most on the minds at the moment.

As for the charts... we are at an important junction...


----------



## dhukka (17 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> I think you'll find in an inflationary environment we will generally do well.
> 
> A lot of things that are core, agribusiness, gold, basic minerals that should theoretically do well in high inflationary periods, the utmost basics, we produce a lot of.




Agreed they do well in inflationary environments but we won't see one of those for some time. The US just recorded it's biggest 2 month decline in inflation since 1932. Inflation is the problem at the moment, the RBA along with other central banks will have their hands full trying to prevent deflation in the next 12 months.


----------



## chops_a_must (18 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We are certainly in deflation right now.

There is no doubt about that.

But I get the feeling the market is trying to work out where the printed money is going to pop up. It may be 12 months, or 3 years. And it may pop up in something well before there is "official" inflation.


----------



## dhukka (18 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Agreed they do well in inflationary environments but we won't see one of those for some time. The US just recorded it's biggest 2 month decline in inflation since 1932. *Inflation is the problem at the moment*, the RBA along with other central banks will have their hands full trying to prevent deflation in the next 12 months.




Oops, should be inflation is *not* the problem



chops_a_must said:


> We are certainly in deflation right now.
> 
> There is no doubt about that.
> 
> But I get the feeling the market is trying to work out where the printed money is going to pop up. It may be 12 months, or 3 years. And it may pop up in something well before there is "official" inflation.




Yep agreed but I think the market is getting ahead of itself again. Everyone is buying into the second half recovery story, China slowing to 6-7% but picking up again with their stimulus package. Time and time again markets have been caught out by long tail events yet we can't shake our habit of forecasting linear outcomes. What if China slows to 2-3%? Who's forecasting the effects of that?

Up until recently the US Fed has *NOT* been priniting money. This is a major misunderstanding and has been widely misreported in the media, the vast majority of the alphabet soup of programs initiated by the Fed and Treasury have been sterilised injections or repo programs, Bernanke has not started dropping money from helicopters yet, yet being the operative word, because we know from his academic leanings that he will print as much money as it takes to prevent the next great depression.


----------



## chops_a_must (18 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That reminds me Dhukka...

Your favourite man and mine, Krudlow said last night, and I quote, "Disinflation is pro-growth!"

I lost it.

Seriously, if I met him, I think I would want to punch him, but don't think I could due to the laughter.


----------



## sails (18 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It is options expiry today and I think Oz futures are also expiring.  Normally they are about a week apart.  Could be an interesting day for the Oz market...


----------



## Sean K (18 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Maybe we should take a poll on which way this is going to go?


----------



## saiter (18 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Maybe we should take a poll on which way this is going to go?




Small bounce before heading towards 2700


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Maybe we should take a poll on which way this is going to go?




No where.


----------



## GreatPig (18 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Depends how you draw it, Kennas. 

Look, look... now it's a descending triangle...

GP


----------



## Rockon2 (20 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

UP !!  

Nasdaq, Ftse , DJ , S&P, Hang seng, Nikkei, all pretty much look the same..

Its Go for a while


----------



## tech/a (20 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hmm dont know about that.
QQQQ looks like its in a wave 4 up move.
It looks pretty symetrical IE Wave A=Wave C in the 3 waves of the 4th wave.
Volume is underweight so not showing any signs of strength.
Limited upside is my current view.
Click on chart for bigger view.


----------



## explod (20 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Everything in my view follows the Dow, even the gold price at the moment.  A look at the Dow on the weekly 5 years chart is looking very dodgy, particularly the lower highs going back about 5 weeks (volume on the Dow was very much higher last night which is also omminous, getting out and perhaps the Fed trying to hold up.   Looks to me that there will be a break to the downside in the next 3 or 4 weeks with little support till about 4000.    

Interesting that this coincides with the inauguration of the new US president.

Time will tell.


I am not technical up to posting charts, but viewing on "Bigcharts"


----------



## chops_a_must (20 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Volume was due to expiration.


----------



## Sean K (24 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GreatPig said:


> Depends how you draw it, Kennas.
> 
> Look, look... now it's a descending triangle...
> 
> GP



Yep, and breaking 3400 looks pretty ordinary.


----------



## Green08 (27 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

To help those that maybe a little confused with the hours




> *Trading hours for Christmas holiday period*
> 
> During the festive season the ASX and CommSec is closed for trading on the following days:
> 
> ...



http://asxnewbie.com/index.php/Shar...ading-hours-for-christmas-holiday-period.html


----------



## Rockon2 (27 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Asian Stockmarkets where open yesterday,,,

The Nikkei up 140.... Its so close you can all most smell it


----------



## enigmatic (31 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey All I am pretty knew to all this analysis and have recently been watching the XAO with bollinger bands and was wondering if today would indicate anything in particular, normally i would of thought we would be expecting some negative days following, but like i said new


----------



## sinner (31 December 2008)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



enigmatic said:


> Hey All I am pretty knew to all this analysis and have recently been watching the XAO with bollinger bands and was wondering if today would indicate anything in particular, normally i would of thought we would be expecting some negative days following, but like i said new




Hi enigmatic, welcome,

I am also new but you should not take year-end trading too seriously. The volume of trades is very light and can give false signals which do not reflect the real situation.

Trend signals (both up and down) should be backed by a strong volume.


----------



## Sean K (1 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Agree on the volume comment, but still looks ok for the break up right now. Buying pressure has just overtaken selling on the DMI, and ADX trend weekening over the past 2 months. Look for that to start ticking up a bit higher with the prices moving up also, or down of course.... 

The poll question of which way it's going to break looks up right now, but we probably need the 3700 ish Oct low / Nov high to be beaten to claim it. 






> J. Welles Wilder developed the Average Directional Index (ADX) to evaluate the strength of a current trend, be it up or down. It's important to determine whether the market is trending or trading (moving sideways), because certain indicators give more useful results depending on the market doing one or the other.
> 
> The ADX is an oscillator that fluctuates between 0 and 100. Even though the scale is from 0 to 100, readings above 60 are relatively rare. Low readings, below 20, indicate a weak trend and high readings, above 40, indicate a strong trend. The indicator does not grade the trend as bullish or bearish, but merely assesses the strength of the current trend. A reading above 40 can indicate a strong downtrend as well as a strong uptrend.
> 
> ADX can also be used to identify potential changes in a market from trending to non-trending. When ADX begins to strengthen from below 20 and moves above 20, it is a sign that the trading range is ending and a trend is developing.


----------



## Rockon2 (2 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Click.................. 

Thank you very much 

should get to 4000 with a bit of luck




Sorry chart is xjo not xao,,,, but close enough


----------



## Sean K (2 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Rockon2 said:


> Click..................
> 
> Thank you very much
> 
> ...



Why 4000?


----------



## Rockon2 (2 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

  thats a secret Kennas


----------



## Sean K (2 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Rockon2 said:


> thats a secret Kennas



Maybe you could educate us?


----------



## Rockon2 (2 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Do you a deal........ When and if it reaches 4000  i will post my reasons

Here's a picture of me at work:


----------



## Cartman (2 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Rockon2 said:


> thats a secret Kennas





pretty close to 61.8 fib level from the high/low of november --- nice low risk short if it gets there in a hurry !!


----------



## tech/a (2 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Update on weekly XJO

Click on chart to expand.


----------



## Sean K (3 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Rockon2 said:


> Do you a deal........ When and if it reaches 4000  i will post my reasons



Thanks for your tremendous contribution to ASF. Will wait with baited breath for your analysis.


----------



## chops_a_must (3 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well... it looks like we've got quite a sizeable and broad based rally across all commodities.

Very interesting time.


----------



## theasxgorilla (3 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Well... it looks like we've got quite a sizeable and broad based rally across all commodities.
> 
> Very interesting time.




The S&P500 took off.  Anyone know the catalyst?


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> The S&P500 took off.  Anyone know the catalyst?




Shorts are on holidays in the Caribbean, longs are still at work trying to make some money.


----------



## MRC & Co (3 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Shorts are on holidays in the Caribbean, longs are still at work trying to make some money.




ha ha ha.    Maybe some truth behind that!

As Chops says, commodities are picking up.

Can't wait for this next wk or two, interesting to see who comes in to push things around, should be a few more bums on seats and some meatier action I would think!


----------



## Rockon2 (3 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> The S&P500 took off.  Anyone know the catalyst?





Its all in the charts.  

Thank you very much, Kattchiiing


----------



## Sean K (3 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Rockon2 said:


> Its all in the charts.
> 
> Thank you very much, Kattchiiing



What's in the charts?


----------



## tech/a (3 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Rockon2 said:


> Its all in the charts.
> 
> Thank you very much, Kattchiiing





Sure is and its not very convincing!


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Sure is and its not very convincing!




Yeah tech they are just rushing in to buy these bargins 

Best thing here is that the sellers are on holidays. Thats it.

Of course if you are riding this sucker up and haven't a couple of hundred mil to unload its not going to matter. As long as you get out before the sellers come back from there holidays


----------



## Sean K (3 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah tech they are just rushing in to buy these bargins
> 
> Best thing here is that the sellers are on holidays. Thats it.
> 
> Of course if you are riding this sucker up and haven't a couple of hundred mil to unload its not going to matter. As long as you get out before the sellers come back from there holidays




TH and Tech, does the volume indicate sellers on holidays, or the sellers exhausted?


----------



## Indie (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking at the charts S&P 1007 makes a W bottom and a nice extended rally. But it is a matter of getting there as we are still almost 10% off. This is a bear market so the best strategy is still to sell into any rally. Although we continue to push up despite bad news my guess is this can't last. As China continues to sink a fresh round of deleveraging should take hold and we should retest lows. But for now the charts say up, although increased volume next week will give a clearer picture.


----------



## tech/a (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> TH and Tech, does the volume indicate sellers on holidays, or the sellers exhausted?




Any up move Kennas needs to be supported by strong volume (as opposed to excessive volume).It generally means that the move will not be sustained. It also indicates as mentioned that supply isn't that prevalent holidays or not!

Conveniently that fits with my other Elliott analysis.
We need to see what happens at a top (which need only be a single bar with a reversal) Volume/Range/where the close is and next bar wise.To get a clearer picture. 
Note also that the high on 1/12/08 has been currently tested and rejected.
For this to be a sustained move long we need to see a BURST of volume to clear this resistance. Gap up over would be nice.

So currently long


----------



## MRC & Co (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Any up move Kennas needs to be supported by strong volume (as opposed to excessive volume).




This part always gets me.  

Excessive volume is fine if price keeps running, infact, some of the largest runners on indices come with excessive volume.


----------



## Cartman (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> This part always gets me.
> 
> Excessive volume is fine if price keeps running, infact, some of the largest runners on indices come with excessive volume.





often contemplate this similar issue in my limited testing  --- how do we distinguish when large volume becomes excessive  (working on the theory that excessive volume at a peak is often bearish)  ---- 

my theory on this and correct me if im on the wrong track Mirc ---- if say we are looking at a 1 minute bar as our reference, its the *position within that bar* where the heavy volume hits the market that is critical moreso than how high the bar goes etc

bludy hard to put into words what im thinking on this   ---- try again    the price level where the big players hit means different things at different times/position of the cycle (depending on what time frame we ar operating in??)

Therefore (FINALLY !!   )  those who can read the DOM correctly (not me)  can gain a big advantage by sniffing out how the deep pockets are playing the game --- 

AND    thats why index and FX traders trade short term and stock traders look to higher time frames cause thats what the deep pockets do --- yes?  no? 

man what a load of codswallop that was lol -------  actually i re-read it and it was pretty much what i was trying to say/ask/get at


----------



## nunthewiser (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

personally think we due some red , unsustainable rises on weak volumes always give me a nice lil warm fuzzy feeling


will be looking towards entering shorts at some point tommorow 

lol hey i could always be wrong too


----------



## tech/a (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> This part always gets me.
> 
> Excessive volume is fine if price keeps running, infact, some of the largest runners on indices come with excessive volume.




It gets a lot of people.
Its pretty simple excessive volume is 3x or more the 14 day SMA of volume.
You must always take in consideration where you see this take part in a chart.
At a top?
At a Bottom?
Somewhere in the middle?

*Cartman.*
I know you want Futures and Stock price behaviour to work quite differently
It doesnt.


----------



## Cartman (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> *Cartman.*
> I know you want Futures and Stock price behaviour to work quite differently
> It doesnt.





yes it does :


----------



## Cartman (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

actually it works similar ----

just on a much lower time scale --- otherwise day traders would become week traders lol ---- 

we actually agree in principle Techno --- just living in different time frames


----------



## mazzatelli1000 (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> It gets a lot of people.
> Its pretty simple excessive volume is 3x or more the 14 day SMA of volume.
> .




Tech

I have seen a 15 day moving average used in conjucntion with the upper bollinger band of a 20 day MA of volume.

When volume spikes beyond the 20 day band this is considered excessive.

Your thoughts?


----------



## MRC & Co (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Cartman said:


> bludy hard to put into words what im thinking on this ---- try again    the price level where the big players hit means different things at different times/position of the cycle (depending on what time frame we ar operating in??)
> 
> Therefore (FINALLY !!  )  those who can read the DOM correctly (not me)  can gain a big advantage by sniffing out how the deep pockets are playing the game ---
> 
> AND   thats why index and FX traders trade short term and stock traders look to higher time frames cause thats what the deep pockets do --- yes?  no?




lol, I'm not exactly sure what you mean.  But yeh, your really just looking for imbalances between supply and demand over a very short time-frame.  If a level is being defended, you want to try and work out if it will be broken or will price trade away from it (or as in most cases, it will be broken and then price will trade away from it ).  Sometimes when some HUGE size appears and there is not a hard push to break it, but neither is there much selling to really push price away from it, price will hit it, come off a little, hit it again, and you can just place your order one tick infront of it and take the flicks back and forth.  No real rules, everything works and everything doesn't!  
But yes, by watching the DOM, all you are trying to do is work out _how_ the big guys are playing the game as you said.  If there is excessive volume but price is still moving, then who cares?  Lot of sellers but also a lot of buyers.  Doesn't mean buyers will stop or that sellers will overwhelm them, regardless of where you are in the trend.  It's always dynamic, completely depends on that exact scenario.

I would say most intraday futures traders do so simply for the $$$ they can control at such a small % of brokerage.  Though, I've heard there are plenty of guys who trade NASDAQ stocks intraday.

But generally, my belief, is each index, currency pair, commodity, whatever, will have it's own group of large players, with their own styles and personalities, and hence each instrument will act slightly different to the other.


----------



## tech/a (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Mazz.
How close is that to the suggestion I have posted.
I got this from Radge when he was looking at volume.
It fits pretty well with tradeguiders Volume bands thats why I have adopted it.


----------



## Cartman (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Cartman said:


> yes it does :




actually i should qualify that statement ---- FX trades different to stocks --- index actually trades similar to stocks --- my apologies.


----------



## tech/a (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Cartman said:


> ---- FX trades different to stocks ---.




Can you show me how Supply and Demand is displayed "differently" in an FX chart please.


----------



## mazzatelli1000 (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Mazz.
> How close is that to the suggestion I have posted.
> I got this from Radge when he was looking at volume.
> It fits pretty well with tradeguiders Volume bands thats why I have adopted it.




Tech 
I've attached recent EOD CBA chart
Those touching the blue line are considered excessive
It seems as though what I have proposed seems to classify more "excessive volume bars"


----------



## tech/a (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As a comparison here are the Volume charts from Tradeguider and Mine as suggested on a metastock chart. Dont see any problems with yours.


----------



## Cartman (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Can you show me how Supply and Demand is displayed "differently" in an FX chart please.




Tech ill post a cupla charts on the Curtis thread cause they are prob more appropriate there  but i will say im not trying to discredit the way you trade in any way ---- to the contrary --- which i thought would have been obvious in a couple of my posts 

to clarify ---- i use volume for confirmation quite often in my 'narrow' world of trading  but i can trade FX  quite comfortably without it ---

y is that?  because FX is a squillion dollar beast --- what might be considered excessive volume an a given day or more to the point , in any given hour or even minute  ---- will turn out to be minuscule volume half an hour later --- im sure you get my point --

therefore u r right in the sense that it is still supply and demand but it behaves in different ways and time frames to stocks etc ---- ie one stock cycle (in time) might contain ten FX cycles ---- thats y traders luv it -- it is a T/A orientated traders dream ----- if u get it right lol 

im not discounting the S/D  but from my own humble experience, if yr gona trade FX u can quite comfortably put the VSA to one side and just trade the momentum ----- all just my opinion and should be taken with a grain of salt till people prove it for themselves ---

hope that clears up my position a bit ---- no agro from this little fella  --- unless you say bad stuff about my MUM  lol


----------



## tech/a (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sounds like I gotta get on to this FX stuff!!


----------



## mazzatelli1000 (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> As a comparison here are the Volume charts from Tradeguider and Mine as suggested on a metastock chart. Dont see any problems with yours.




Tech

It seems the appraoches yield the same sort of analysis
Thanks for the comparison.
Greatly appreciated!!


----------



## Cartman (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Sounds like I gotta get on to this FX stuff!!




in all seriousness Tech ----- someone with yr proven T/A track record only needs a little screen time on FX and u would probably have it 4 breakfast  --- ive been kinda saying this in a round about fashion for a week or so on different threads but i think u may have thought i was questioning yr current methods as iffy  ---- uh uh !! --- just offering a different perspective

actually with yr stock background i think index trading would be yr best bet for short term stuff but youll work that out yourself ---

ill take a bet with you actually ---- once you try index trading seriously (not talking scalping either --- swing or even position trades or whatever)  you will only buy stocks as an investment vehicle in the future


----------



## tech/a (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Cartman said:


> in all seriousness Tech ----- someone with yr proven T/A track record only needs a little screen time on FX and u would probably have it 4 breakfast  --- ive been kinda saying this in a round about fashion for a week or so on different threads but i think u may have thought i was questioning yr current methods as iffy  ---- uh uh !! --- just offering a different perspective
> 
> actually with yr stock background i think index trading would be yr best bet for short term stuff but youll work that out yourself ---
> 
> ill take a bet with you actually ---- once you try index trading seriously (not talking scalping either --- swing or even position trades or whatever)  you will only buy stocks as an investment vehicle in the future




Have started a thread Forex For dummies.(Me actually) on the Forex Board.
Appreciate any help.

Your bet will probably be a sure thing as I have been told this B4.
Time to get educated me thinks.


----------



## Cartman (4 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Have started a thread Forex For dummies.(Me actually) on the Forex Board.
> Appreciate any help.
> 
> Your bet will probably be a sure thing as I have been told this B4.
> Time to get educated me thinks.




haha  im still a dummy too lol ...  but if i knew what i know now 2 years ago i would have a serious capital base to work off now ----

best advice if u wanna have a crack at FX ------ Demo accounts ----- but treat them seriously (which i know u will) ---   heck im still trading with CFD providers cause thats all i can afford atm    --- no misconceptions about my place in the pecking order but i have done about 2,500 hours screen time in the last 12 months mainly on the EUR/USD ---- thats where id concentrate ---- low spread with most providers and VERY liquid market 

http://www.forexfactory.com/  ----- good place to start (im sur Joe wont mind cause its not really in competition with ASF


----------



## Naked shorts (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Sounds like I gotta get on to this FX stuff!!




You would get eaten alive :


----------



## nunthewiser (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> personally think we due some red , unsustainable rises on weak volumes always give me a nice lil warm fuzzy feeling
> 
> 
> will be looking towards entering shorts at some point tommorow
> ...




crashnburn i say


----------



## Boggo (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lets see if if the XAO is gonna close above this obtacle...

(click to expand)


----------



## chops_a_must (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Geez... that's very bearish price action today...


----------



## MRC & Co (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> Geez... that's very bearish price action today...




Yeh, there were a few buyers in there too today, at certain times, but they just got eaten alive!


----------



## michael_selway (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, there were a few buyers in there too today, at certain times, but they just got eaten alive!




Somethign strange is goign on, if you look at some resource stocks they all went up today e.g. BHP & RIO (and esp the Nickel Stocks)! But everything else down it appears

so maybe a whole new ball game now?

thx

MS


----------



## nunthewiser (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



michael_selway said:


> Somethign strange is goign on, if you look at some resource stocks they all went up today e.g. BHP & RIO (and esp the Nickel Stocks)! But everything else down it appears
> 
> so maybe a whole new ball game now?
> 
> ...




BHP actually finished way off its highs ....blessem to bits


----------



## baja (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



michael_selway said:


> Somethign strange is goign on, if you look at some resource stocks they all went up today e.g. BHP & RIO (and esp the Nickel Stocks)! But everything else down it appears
> 
> so maybe a whole new ball game now?
> 
> ...




yeah cool. All of my resource stocks have clawed back some ground. One is showing $2.50 profit.:


----------



## nunthewiser (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So i take it from some of the comments here that most are still long ?



i am not and stated entrys and thoughts a cuppl a times in various places here today and last night

..just trying to guage others thoughts now ....anyone ?


----------



## M34N (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> So i take it from some of the comments here that most are still long ?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Was long on 3 stocks before Christmas break (NCM, CBA, FMG), closed NCM and CBA last week for profits, FMG still open and at a profit but intend to sell in any sign of weakness.

Unsure on where things will go, and I personally have a rule now that I hold nothing for more than 2 weeks (or thereabouts) and cut losses quickly. Don't intend to hold for more than the short term and only put in maybe 40% of capital at any given time.


----------



## Nyden (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> Was long on 3 stocks before Christmas break (NCM, CBA, FMG), closed NCM and CBA last week for profits, FMG still open and at a profit but intend to sell in any sign of weakness.
> 
> Unsure on where things will go, and I personally have a rule now that I hold nothing for more than 2 weeks (or thereabouts) and cut losses quickly. Don't intend to hold for more than the short term and only put in maybe 40% of capital at any given time.




40% of capital? I myself have a couple of rather small long positions open - which unfortunately as of today are only break-even (were up), but as per my risk management strategy I'm only allowing 15% of my capital to be exposed in this market.

I just want to clarify - do you refer to 40% of your trading-specific capital, or 40% of all available funds? If the latter, gosh - you're gutsy.


----------



## tech/a (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> You would get eaten alive :





A little learning is a dangerous thing but ignorance is far worse.
I will heed your advice.


----------



## michael_selway (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> BHP actually finished way off its highs ....blessem to bits




Hm yeah but BHO if you look at the chart, its appears $20 is the bottom?

Also Nickel plays today, some jumped 40% (see below article). if we are in a "real" bear market, stocks can do these sort of jumps 'legitimately'?

As I say there may be a new ball game i.e. soem stocks willbe bullish and soem maybe bearish for the next few years? tech A, what do you think of this?

Thanks

MS

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story.php?/1/69424/Higher-prices-boost-WA-nickel-plays-



> The share prices of Western Australian nickel plays soared today thanks to a near 16 per cent surge in the commodity's price.
> 
> Perth-based Mirabela Nickel led the charge with its share price jumping 39 per cent, or 35 cents, to close at $1.25 today.
> 
> ...




*BHP - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 285.4 342.6 309.5 375.2 
DPS 72.7 102.2 110.0 115.4 *


----------



## nunthewiser (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



michael_selway said:


> Hm yeah but BHO if you look at the chart, its appears $20 is the bottom?
> 
> ]




sorry m8 i think we got wires crossed , i was talking about ST action as of today which was traded here ...nothing to do with long term trends etc etc ..

ps for what its worth re long term trends i think BHP will find at least one more new low overall before its done , but hey thats purely speculation and only time will point the way there


----------



## M34N (5 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> 40% of capital? I myself have a couple of rather small long positions open - which unfortunately as of today are only break-even (were up), but as per my risk management strategy I'm only allowing 15% of my capital to be exposed in this market.
> 
> I just want to clarify - do you refer to 40% of your trading-specific capital, or 40% of all available funds? If the latter, gosh - you're gutsy.




40% of my trading capital; I only play with what I'm comfortable to lose. My trading capital would account for about 25% of my total capital, so I feel comfortable to trade that amount at any given time. It used to be about 80-90% of my total capital on the market but I've learned a lot from this past year.


----------



## Rockon2 (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Still Holding Long on XAO ( xjo )  

FTSE did well last night , with an increase in Vol 

DJ and s&p didnt do to bad ,, inside day perhaps, but not a reverse to downside yet..

xao and xjo is an index made from the amount of stocks it represents, therefore it cant always be traded in a pure bar chart form imo..
Intraday yes, daily no....     Yesterday saw some profit taking from the 
last Friday buys imo... nothing more that that..
And here we are our mkt up atm with a weak lead from the US, supposedly..

anyway its a hold atm, until a signal thats clear , before reverse


----------



## chops_a_must (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Rockon2 said:


> xao and xjo is an index made from the amount of stocks it represents, therefore it cant always be traded in a pure bar chart form imo..




lol wut.


----------



## Rockon2 (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> lol wut.





Errr wut ???


----------



## chops_a_must (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Every index is made up of the number of stocks it represents.

It's not often called the Dow 30 because it represents 29 stocks.


----------



## Rockon2 (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sideline I Know,,, but they all run together.....

chart snap shot of the FTSE 5 pm WA time..

looking good for a break north imo.


and btw see the  Nikkei


----------



## GreatPig (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



chops_a_must said:


> It's not often called the Dow 30 because it represents 29 stocks.



However, if you download the list of ASX100 and ASX200 stocks from the S&P website, you'll often find they're plus or minus a stock or two from those values.

GP


----------



## nomore4s (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Starting to see alot of stocks breaking out or about to breakout of very similar ascending triangle patterns.

I think we could get a decent run with this many stocks putting in bullish basing patterns, but you never know with the market

At the moment I'm looking for a run up to around 4200-4300 and then a retest of the lows. Could change pretty quickly though.


----------



## Rockon2 (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

go baby


----------



## nunthewiser (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

figjam?


----------



## GreatPig (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> figjam?



F*** I'm Good, Just Ask Me!

GP


----------



## nunthewiser (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

good grief


----------



## TheAbyss (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> figjam?





A most humble soul indeed is Mr Rockon

Figjam= Fcuk Im Good Just ask me


----------



## Rockon2 (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

PML at NUN... camoon u knew that ! .. lol

anyway,, doesnt matter, its reading the chart that matters..


----------



## nunthewiser (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Rockon2 said:


> PML at NUN... camoon u knew that ! .. lol
> 
> anyway,, doesnt matter, its reading the chart that matters..




we at the convent prefer the humble wholesome aproach.

well done if you traded it


----------



## Rockon2 (6 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

np cheers :bier:


and i'm wrong on both those charts.... the line in ftse 5 min supp/resist should be @ 4600 not 
where i drew it in a hurry...

For those watching it or trading it,, very important...!


----------



## Sean K (7 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just breaking up through 3700. If EOD close above perhaps the 'up' voters win, on a short term 'up' move. .


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Just breaking up through 3700. If EOD close above perhaps the 'up' voters win, on a short term 'up' move. .




More likely to get a fall back into previous days action first. IMO.


----------



## MRC & Co (7 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> good grief




LOL


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Just breaking up through 3700. If EOD close above perhaps the 'up' voters win, on a short term 'up' move. .






Trembling Hand said:


> More likely to get a fall back into previous days action first. IMO.





So who is winning now?


----------



## Sean K (8 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> So who is winning now?



Looks like the 'nowhere's' have their nose back front at the moment.


----------



## Rockon2 (8 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

agree with the Nowhere's


----------



## Rockon2 (9 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Back to UP ... Nikkei, DJ, FTSE, Nasdaq, s&p,  all the lows bounced from the sweet spot, and all finished on there highs...


----------



## Indie (9 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Support at 855 is holding on the S&P atm. Trend appears up and charts would say we are a good chance for S&P 1070+. But it would most likely be lots of sideways action for 6-8 weeks on the way there. Also, there are some early signs of yen weakness which is bullish for equities in general. If USD/JPY stays over key support at 90.85 - 91.25 in DOW trading tonight, I think this confirms short-medium bullish action. Latest jobless figures will be horrible, but then again I can't remember when we last had good news.


----------



## Naked shorts (9 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Indie said:


> Support at 855 is holding on the S&P atm. Trend appears up and charts would say we are a good chance for S&P 1070+. But it would most likely be lots of sideways action for 6-8 weeks on the way there. Also, there are some early signs of yen weakness which is bullish for equities in general. If USD/JPY stays over key support at 90.85 - 91.25 in DOW trading tonight, I think this confirms short-medium bullish action. Latest jobless figures will be horrible, but then again I can't remember when we last had good news.




From my news feed


> JAPANESE TRADE OFFICIAL OUTLINES FUND TAX PROPOSAL
> - The government wants to attract  ¥10T from buyout and sovereign wealth funds and it may cut the 40% capital gains tax for foreign investors.



Perhaps the yen wont become too weak.


----------



## Indie (9 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*




Naked shorts said:


> From my news feed
> 
> Perhaps the yen wont become too weak.





I think the CGT cut will lead to a lot of appropriation of YEN from abroad and another round of deleveraging, but I think it will probably come at the end of the 1st qtr or start of the 2nd. So I'm shorting AUD against YEN long term. However, AUD/YEN has had something like 94% correlation to general market movements (DOW), this trend could change at anytime, but it's there atm.

Anyway, the market looks like it has found a short to medium term bottom but it's still a bear IMO. We look to have another 10-15% upside with lots of sideways churn.....I think.


----------



## Jonathan111 (10 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Anyway, the market looks like it has found a short to medium term bottom but it's still a bear IMO. We look to have another 10-15% upside with lots of sideways churn.....







> Poll Results: Is the next leg down, or up, or nowhere?




_ A third of the billionaires believe that the sharemarket has either already bottomed or is close to the bottom. Most believe the price of oil will remain relatively stable or fall slightly. And nearly every billionaire interviewed believes the US economy will start growing again in late 2009 or early 2010_
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/RICH-PICKINGS-Billionaires-bet-$pd20090108-N426F?OpenDocument&src=mp


----------



## tech/a (10 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Jonathan111 said:


> _ A third of the billionaires believe that the sharemarket has either already bottomed or is close to the bottom. Most believe the price of oil will remain relatively stable or fall slightly. And nearly every billionaire interviewed believes the US economy will start growing again in late 2009 or early 2010_
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/RICH-PICKINGS-Billionaires-bet-$pd20090108-N426F?OpenDocument&src=mp




There is another way of phrasing the quote.

A third of the billionaires hope that the sharemarket has either already bottomed or is close to the bottom. Most hope the price of oil will remain relatively stable or fall slightly. And nearly every billionaire interviewed strongly hopes the US economy will start growing again in late 2009 or early 2010


What we dont know is what they thought 12 mths ago when there were a whole lot more of them.
Many who were billionaires and are now simply Multi Millionaires,Millionaires or Bankrupt.
Perhaps in 5 yrs time we will be turning to those who have a wage for predictions.(My humor)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Billionaires, shillionaires.

It is a shame Jesse Livermore is not alive.

Follow the tape.

Watch the price movements. Watch the volume. Wait for momentum, and change.

You may as well ask my leftie Aunt Phoebe where the market is going as ask a billionaire.

gg


----------



## nunthewiser (10 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

pffffffffffft billionaire!..thats old hat ....... the new magic word is trillions !


----------



## tech/a (10 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Billionaires, shillionaires.
> 
> It is a shame Jesse Livermore is not alive.
> 
> ...




Ok whats she think?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Ok whats she think?




lol

She thinks we should all be sent to the gulag.

gg


----------



## Naked shorts (10 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Jonathan111 said:


> _ A third of the billionaires believe that the sharemarket has either already bottomed or is close to the bottom. Most believe the price of oil will remain relatively stable or fall slightly. And nearly every billionaire interviewed believes the US economy will start growing again in late 2009 or early 2010_
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/RICH-PICKINGS-Billionaires-bet-$pd20090108-N426F?OpenDocument&src=mp




Well looks like a third of the billionaires know that they have to try and change market sentiment.


----------



## gfresh (12 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> There is another way of phrasing the quote.
> 
> A third of the billionaires hope that the sharemarket has either already bottomed or is close to the bottom. Most hope the price of oil will remain relatively stable or fall slightly. And nearly every billionaire interviewed strongly hopes the US economy will start growing again in late 2009 or early 2010




Is very true.. I've seen lots of these sorts of comments on recovery in late 09 recently, but there has been no evidence presented to support that hypothesis, therefore it is indeed should just "hope". After all, by the end of the first quarter in 08 they were saying recovery by the end of that year 

If wrong, just keep shifting the goalposts further into the future


----------



## nunthewiser (13 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Long one resorce co
Long one banking co

small bounce due in my opinion 

could be wrong

avaniceday

i MUST point out though i am only expecting a very short lived bounce and NOT intending on holding my entrys past tommorow /thurs at latest


----------



## nunthewiser (14 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

 chug chug chug


----------



## Rockon2 (14 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yep Closed above Pivots today ...........


----------



## Sunder (15 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> chug chug chug




Were you panicking around 11 when the market was below yesterday's close?


----------



## nunthewiser (15 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Were you panicking around 11 when the market was below yesterday's close?




No as my bhp Ben and anz entrys were way below yesterdays closing prices ... no stops hit so trade still chugging along .

tell a lie i did wonder what was happening with BHP for about an hour but stuck with the plan and stop points and it closed well
LOL all that looks like its going out the window after tonights maybe outlook tho


----------



## Rockon2 (15 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes .. FTSE copping a thrashing  atm


----------



## Aussiejeff (15 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Rockon2 said:


> Yes .. FTSE copping a thrashing  atm




In fact, it was a jolly good thrashing all round.. :horse: :horse: 

C,mon ASX... giddyap!!! :horse:

*doh*

Just a pile of hor$e$****...


----------



## nunthewiser (15 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

reckons i shoulda took profits yesterday and spent on beer , dinner and hookers 
like i mentioned, instead of looking at stock back near entry points and bhp as a maybe stopout but not 
hit yet ,so no cause for alarm , just peesed i coulda had a royal old time last night on bounce trading profits



got to love this trading game 


one day i hope to be as good as others here and buy at the very bottom and sell at the very top


----------



## Aussiejeff (15 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> .... one day i hope to be as good as others here and *buy at the very bottom* and sell at the very top




With the way the ASX is haemorrhaging atm that could be a ways off, mate!


----------



## CamKawa (15 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just gone through the ASX 200. The only stocks that aren't in the red are GTP and DUE.


----------



## gfresh (15 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well the new year happy fuzzy feeling looks well and truly worn off...

Looks like the XAO is just respecting support now.. but if that goes tomorrow or the next day, looks like we're going to make a new low sometime after that below 3300  Shall be interesting to watch Europe and US tonight...


----------



## brty (15 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I believe GTP is no longer in the ASX 200.

With a market cap of only $58m, it is not likely to still be in there.

brty


----------



## nunthewiser (15 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> With the way the ASX is haemorrhaging atm that could be a ways off, mate!




yeah we still got another major downleg b4 we hit base in my view but plenty of bounces to trade in the meantime .. seems i got too greedy on this one and shoulda skimmed and left yesterday with a nice profit instead of today with peanuts and a small loss


----------



## CamKawa (15 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> I believe GTP is no longer in the ASX 200.
> 
> With a market cap of only $58m, it is not likely to still be in there.
> 
> brty



Right you are. It was removed on the 5th of December.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/20081205IN_QrtlyRebal.pdf


----------



## explod (15 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Have only popped onto this thread a few times to look and I think one post.  As I feel some huge change in the wind just thought I should pop in for a look and perhaps 

The poll says most think the XAO will go up...... well:

1.   the financial outlook seems to be worse by the day;

2.   China (our saviour) have just taken their bat and ball and gone home;

3.   The rescue packages have not worked anywhere;

4.   Lower cash rates, and in some places almost zero, have not reduced    retail rates,  money is scarce, banks do not trust anyone, including viable businesses which daily are going to the wall. 

5.   And one could go on.

Direction of the XAO is determined solely on SENTIMENT.  If the Dow goes up our market follows, particularly on the big moves.   We are a small market that cannot think for itself.

So where is the Dow going:-

Short answer, DOWN A LONG WAY

Since the US Fed fed in cheap money to rescue the Dow back in 2003 when it was at 8,000 it rose strongly by the mechanisms of refinancing. (REFINANCING funny ring to that)  a bit like Allan Bond's PARACHUTING (he went straight to gaol).    The Dow is back at the same level today, having reached the wonderful heights of 14,000 back in late 2007.

If we look at the Dow on "Big charts" all data, we find that 8,000 happens to be a strong support area going back to 1997 (then resistance).  A breach of this support would see the next major support at 4,000.   Such a drop would see huge momentum (jumping out windows too)so it is likely that the supports below that at 3,000 and then 2000 could be severely tested.

In the last 7 trading days the Dow has put in a new low each day.   This is also the more ominous in that this trend if continued will match the recent low of the Dow at the end of Novemeber of 7,600, right at the time the new US President is sworn in.    You can be sure the other side of politics will let the bad news out about then as they did to Jimmy Carter, and you gussed it, he only lasted one term.

So the XAO, maybe not as much as the Dow, we could be self contained, but certainly as much as we have fallen so far, say 2000


----------



## grace (15 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> So the XAO, maybe not as much as the Dow, we could be self contained, but certainly as much as we have fallen so far, say 2000




Such optimism!  I was preparing myself for 2700.  I'm going to start taking valium below that!

(just kidding, not a pill popper)


----------



## MS+Tradesim (20 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking pretty bearish right now.....falling pennant only had two up days. Sitting on medium term support, if we go down, next pause at the 3200 mark...maybe, maybe not.


----------



## Sean K (20 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> Looking pretty bearish right now.....falling pennant only had two up days. Sitting on medium term support, if we go down, next pause at the 3200 mark...maybe, maybe not.



I agree. Nice green and yellow chart too!


----------



## nunthewiser (20 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

PERSONALLY 


think a nice lil bounce tommorow and MAYBE friday ........in fact punting on it 

amen


----------



## MrBurns (20 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Are we somewhere near a 5 year low ?


----------



## sammy84 (20 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> PERSONALLY
> 
> 
> think a nice lil bounce tommorow and MAYBE friday ........in fact punting on it
> ...




Nun I'm with you on that one. No real technical indicators telling me to buy today, just was a bit bored of being on the sidelines and had a good feeling. I think i have to go back and re-learn money management.


----------



## nunthewiser (20 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Nun I'm with you on that one. No real technical indicators telling me to buy today, just was a bit bored of being on the sidelines and had a good feeling. I think i have to go back and re-learn money management.




dunno about you but ive got plenty of personal use indicators going off and if you may notice quite a few off there lows from when i posted . nothing to do with boredom , mainly to do with the fact i spotted some fairly easy cash.


each to there own , if you feel you need to relearn money management , fair enough 

cheers


----------



## nunthewiser (20 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ps as far as management is concerened ALL trades entered are managed with the same stoploss discipline and i am more than happy to take my already calculated loss in the beat of a heart 

hope this helps on your quest


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> No real technical indicators telling me to buy today, just was a *bit bored* of being on the sidelines and had a good feeling. I think i have to go back and re-learn money management.




What about idea and strategy development 

And on that,


Just a heads up for anyone that's not use to looking in the SPI thread there is some good stuff being posted in there currently which is of obvious benefit to the XAO.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=387655#post387655


----------



## nunthewiser (20 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Nun I'm with you on that one. No real technical indicators telling me to buy today, just was a bit bored of being on the sidelines and had a good feeling. I think i have to go back and re-learn money management.




APOLOGIES if you were being sincere . I thought you may have  been takin the pisss for my entry plans


----------



## sammy84 (20 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> What about idea and strategy development
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=387655#post387655




Haha, thanks for your concern. I'm in the process of reworking my strategy, so it has meant I have been out of the market a while. A few indicators showed up today so I figured may as well enter, still a punt nonetheless as it wasn't based on my strategy. Entered with tight stops and minimal position size however.


----------



## sammy84 (20 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> APOLOGIES if you were being sincere . I thought you may have  been takin the pisss for my entry plans




Nah not taking the piss nun, sorry you took it that way. I had a few indicators go off today, but not enough to make me supremely confident. More laughing at myself for going against my trading rules. Still I do expect a bounce by weeks end


----------



## MS+Tradesim (23 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So that's our lowest close in about 5 years. How are you guys going with your longs?


----------



## sinner (23 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> So that's our lowest close in about 5 years. How are you guys going with your longs?




+25% all up as of today close but all gold miners


----------



## nunthewiser (23 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> So that's our lowest close in about 5 years. How are you guys going with your longs?




um that was a cupla days ago but just because you asked the result was .stopped out of 2 small losses , 6% gain on other ,

overall result was just below breakeven , so yes i suppose it was a failure

ya get that


----------



## Aussiejeff (23 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> So that's our lowest close in about 5 years. How are you guys going with your longs?




I'm long cash. Does that count?


----------



## MS+Tradesim (23 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> um that was a cupla days ago but just because you asked the result was .stopped out of 2 small losses , 6% gain on other ,
> 
> overall result was just below breakeven , so yes i suppose it was a failure
> 
> ya get that




You took your stops so that would be a success in my book.


----------



## dhukka (23 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Our banks... ANZ you mentioned getting closer to 10 than 15... is still way over there. Don't wanna repeat that one yet eh.




You were saying Whiskers?


----------



## MrBurns (23 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As a general comment I have to say that the urgency is gone, I dont feel the need to get in in case I miss the "bottom" I donr really care any more if the ASX is up or down 100 points because I know it's not going to surge anytime soon.
That to me is the first sign of acceptance that the market is rooted for the medium term at least.


----------



## So_Cynical (24 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Who cares what the index is, when Gold producing stocks are up on average about 100% from there Oct-Nov bottoms....also many other defensive/conservative stocks above there Oct-Nov bottoms.


----------



## Logique (26 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> *Feb 2003* = 2800 ; *Oct 2007* = 6750 ; Leg = *3950*
> Retracement by Fibonacci ratios 21 34 55 89 - classic, not the generally accepted trading Fibonacci ratios.
> 
> Retracement to: 6750 - (% of 3950)
> ...






> Hi Logique,
> 
> You are quite correct in using the 89% figure as it (or more precisely 88.6%) does feature in major turning points in a number of Geometric Price patterns like the Bat, Crab, Butterfly and Gartley patterns.
> 
> ...




Thought it might be interesting to quote these posts from mid-October 2008, where I had used a Fibonacci 89% retracement to get a projected XAO low of 3234, but Bankit with more precision corrected this to 3146.  With the current level at 3300, these calculated retracements are rapidly approaching, and if breached - I guess we'll have to look for a new paradigm, or the next Fib ratio in the sequence.


----------



## Sean K (26 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Thought it might be interesting to quote these posts from mid-October 2008, where I had used a Fibonacci 89% retracement to get a projected XAO low of 3234, but Bankit with more precision corrected this to 3146.  With the current level at 3300, these calculated retracements are rapidly approaching, and if breached - I guess we'll have to look for a new paradigm, or the next Fib ratio in the sequence.



Any other quotes that may have been incorrect?


----------



## Logique (28 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On a technicality, it's not incorrect yet. On the contrary, so far it's correct.  
Can't let the Elliott Wavers have it all their own way.  As an analysis tool EW theory appears to be remarkably flexible, and quickly adaptable to changing circumstances.


----------



## nunthewiser (28 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> On a technicality, it's not incorrect yet. On the contrary, so far it's correct.
> Can't let the Elliott Wavers have it all their own way.  As an analysis tool EW theory appears to be remarkably flexible, and quickly adaptable to changing circumstances.




LOL watchout!! when i mentioned it was the best lil hindsight commentator in the market i got growled at


----------



## nick2fish (28 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

[/QUOTE]







MrBurns said:


> As a general comment I have to say that the urgency is gone, I dont feel the need to get in in case I miss the "bottom" I donr really care any more if the ASX is up or down 100 points because I know it's not going to surge anytime soon.
> That to me is the first sign of acceptance that the market is rooted for the medium term at least.




*Despair*: The final emotion is one of despair with the bear roaring, indexes down 20%, 30% or more, and leading stocks down 40% to 70% from their highs. Our losses have increased until we sell out in despair. We forget about stocks and the market indefinitely, instead of learning from our mistakes, giving up at the worst possible time. The market is down, but it always comes back. New sectors of stocks are emerging with new leaders ready to move ahead strongly.

Chin up Mr Burns, we may be through the worst of it


----------



## -Bevo- (29 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Once last rally possibly before we sink to new lows?


----------



## MrBurns (29 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> =nick2fish;391007]
> 
> *Despair*: The final emotion is one of despair with the bear roaring, indexes down 20%, 30% or more, and leading stocks down 40% to 70% from their highs. Our losses have increased until we sell out in despair. We forget about stocks and the market indefinitely, instead of learning from our mistakes, giving up at the worst possible time. The market is down, but it always comes back. New sectors of stocks are emerging with new leaders ready to move ahead strongly.
> 
> Chin up Mr Burns, we may be through the worst of it




It's not despair just growing indifference.

There's still a lot of cash out there waiting to go somewhere so I think we'll see spurts of overheated optimisim for a while yet but slowly it will calm down, well I hope it will, still early days I guess.

An investment unit in Port Douglas is looking more attractive every day, but once again it's too early, I'm getting sick of waiting to be honest.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (29 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL watchout!! when i mentioned it was the best lil hindsight commentator in the market i got growled at




I wonder who from....


----------



## nunthewiser (29 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> I wonder who from....




LOL wasnt you m8  ..i enjoy your posts actually ..... just like to have a lil poke at a bear with a sore head at times


----------



## OzWaveGuy (29 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL wasnt you m8  ..i enjoy your posts actually ..... just like to have a lil poke at a bear with a sore head at times




Right - I try to hold back for a long as I can  which can sometimes be a challange in this forum 

Grumpy ol' bear might be waking soon....


----------



## nunthewiser (29 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Grumpy ol' bear might be waking soon....




VERY shortly i suspect ....... looking at some "darling "stock shorts at present


----------



## davo8 (29 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nick2fish said:


> *Despair*: The final emotion is one of despair with the bear roaring, indexes down 20%, 30% or more, and leading stocks down 40% to 70% from their highs. Our losses have increased until we sell out in despair. We forget about stocks and the market indefinitely, instead of learning from our mistakes, giving up at the worst possible time. The market is down, but it always comes back. New sectors of stocks are emerging with new leaders ready to move ahead strongly.
> 
> Chin up Mr Burns, we may be through the worst of it




Define worst! 

Repeat after me: this is NOT the bottom. The index is headed lower and much time has to pass before the trend changes. Momentum trading and buy-and-hold are not good strategies at these times. Not all the bad news is factored in, and the charts can lie.

FWIW my take is that it's a good time to be stock picking, especially in key new sectors like (say) energy and gold mining, while avoiding previous hot sectors like (say) financials. And always remember: margin of safety.


----------



## michael_selway (29 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



-Bevo- said:


> Once last rally possibly before we sink to new lows?




Hm how high do you think XAo will rally to before the new lows?

thx

MS


----------



## -Bevo- (29 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



michael_selway said:


> Hm how high do you think XAo will rally to before the new lows?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Not even sure if that setup would play out, around 3930 or the upper resistance of the trendline at E it might also get stuck in some sideways pattern for awhile or some smaller triangle forms in any event I'm expecting it to take out the lows at some point.

Bevo


----------



## nick2fish (29 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> Define worst!
> 
> Repeat after me: this is NOT the bottom. The index is headed lower and much time has to pass before the trend changes. Momentum trading and buy-and-hold are not good strategies at these times. Not all the bad news is factored in, and the charts can lie.
> 
> FWIW my take is that it's a good time to be stock picking, especially in key new sectors like (say) energy and gold mining, while avoiding previous hot sectors like (say) financials. And always remember: margin of safety.




The actual entry into the bear market is my definition of worst

2008 =  FTSE down 31.3%, Dow down 34%,Nikkie 42%,Hang Seng 48%

Anyway it was a lighthearted reply to a member who I respect, if it was you I wouldn't have bothered

Repeat after me "Have a NICE day"


----------



## nunthewiser (30 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Please refer to post # 6194 if you are wondering who the clown is singing "sunshine and lollipops" along your street this morning

thankyou


----------



## OzWaveGuy (30 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Please refer to post # 6194 if you are wondering who the clown is singing "sunshine and lollipops" along your street this morning
> 
> thankyou




I think he just got run over! Hello, hello are u there?


----------



## OzWaveGuy (30 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Please refer to post # 6194 if you are wondering who the clown is singing "sunshine and lollipops" along your street this morning
> 
> thankyou




On a more serious note - what stocks did you short and are u still in?


----------



## nunthewiser (30 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> On a more serious note - what stocks did you short and are u still in?




BHP .......... covered 29.95 ......paid for loose wimmin and copious alcohol for the weekend so happy

may fall more , dunno ..

more bad news expected from the good ole US of A tonight but with this bailout hooplah i think i,ll wait until monday for another looksie at any trade positions 

and yeah i think my neighbour was tempted to run me over earlier


----------



## OzWaveGuy (30 January 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> BHP .......... covered 29.95 ......paid for loose wimmin and copious alcohol for the weekend so happy
> 
> may fall more , dunno ..
> 
> ...




Ideally, I'd like to see the XAO rally one last leg (let's pick a number, say to around 3533), before reversing


----------



## OzWaveGuy (3 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I thought I'd post an Elliott Wave medium term update here (v's the EW thread) on the XAO. I've been looking mainly at the short term moves in recent weeks which may bore the longer term investors or those who don't care too much about small a-b-c corrections etc.


----------



## nunthewiser (3 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For what its worth i went long on 2 stocks today , expecting a small rally about here , dunno how much oomf will be behind it . ST trades only

they wasnt banks 

as usual normal stoploss rules do apply 

LOL i just looked at your chart oz wave guy  how come me and you are aqlways goin in different directions on these short term moves ?

oh hang on ........ we looking at different time frames , im merely trading for tommorow

other than that i totally agrre re your direction charted

by the way .thanks for the charts and analysis very intresting reading and good too see detail


----------



## OzWaveGuy (4 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL i just looked at your chart oz wave guy  how come me and you are aqlways goin in different directions on these short term moves ?
> 
> oh hang on ........ we looking at different time frames , im merely trading for tommorow
> 
> ...





Thanks for the feedback Nun, I aim to please .

Very short term there will probably be a bounce today as 5 waves down appears complete from yesterday (although for the life of me I couldn't see it clearly on the charts yesterday, but was the first thing i could see this morning), so tight stops will be ideal  

Probably a good call Nun.


----------



## nunthewiser (4 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL . well . both my trades , still green and no cause for panic as yet .BUT xao in negative turf 

good call oz wave


----------



## sinner (4 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi guys,

Chris Vermeulen has a very interesting set of charts here comparing the current market to the 2002-3 market slump.  The charts are so uncannily similar they are worth examining. These are of course (not XAO) SP500 and DJIA charts and analysis but I am sure we will follow a rally if they do.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12513.htm


----------



## Mr Capital (4 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sinner said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> Chris Vermeulen has a very interesting set of charts here comparing the current market to the 2002-3 market slump.  The charts are so uncannily similar they are worth examining. These are of course (not XAO) SP500 and DJIA charts and analysis but I am sure we will follow a rally if they do.
> 
> http://www.safehaven.com/article-12513.htm




Doesn't Chris Vermeulen ride MOTO GP ?, lolz 
thanks for the article.


----------



## CamKawa (4 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Mr Capital said:


> Doesn't Chris Vermeulen ride MOTO GP ?



Yes, for Suzuki. Maybe he's doing a bit of moonlighting on the side during the summer break?


----------



## nunthewiser (5 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

 Check out the video also                       http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=29&ContentID=123026




Hit soundtrack composed from tumbling share price graphs

5th February 2009, 6:45 WST 






A soundtrack of the global economic crisis composed by running financial graphs through SongSmith, Microsoft's increasingly popular music software, has become a YouTube hit. 

German experimental musician Johannes Kreidler based the unsettling melodies on charts showing the sharp fall of the values of major world markets and the share prices of troubled institutions including Lehman Brothers and Bank of America. 

Although financial data may not be an obvious source of musical inspiration, Kreidler's composition has been hailed by users of the video sharing website, where it has attracted more than 160,000 views in a week. 

"Disturbing and hilarious at the same time," wrote one. Another commented: "When they make a movie about this financial crisis, these songs should be played one after the other during the inevitable montage of each company panicking." 

The bleakly humorous video is the latest SongSmith creation to go viral. The software, which allows anyone to create complete pop songs just by singing into a microphone or entering a single melody, was mocked as tacky and pointless after its launch, but has now developed a cult popularity. 

When the vocals of famous songs are run through the software, the backing tracks it adds are so unlikely that the end results often turn out as surreal reinventions of the originals. Dozens of Songsmith reinterpretations have been posted on YouTube, including a lounge jazz version of Radiohead's Creep, The Police's Roxanne reworked with a reggae beat and Eye of the Tiger as a lo-fi love song. 

Kreidler's creation sets the tumbling graph melodies to jangly, upbeat backing tracks, with perturbing results. His video, titled Charts Music, also contains tunes based on rising graphs illustrating the number of US troops killed in Iraq, unemployment figures and US national debt, which if anything are even more eerie. 

The musician's satirical intent is clear; at the end of the clip he lists the corporations he has featured among the composer credits. 

LONDON
THE TELEGRAPH GROUP


----------



## Naked shorts (11 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Check out the video also                       http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=29&ContentID=123026




Hehehehehe classic! 




nunthewiser said:


> "When they make a movie about this financial crisis, these songs should be played one after the other during the inevitable montage of each company panicking."




I'll put these songs in my movie (see blog).


----------



## gfresh (12 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I wonder if this has anything to do with the recent bullishness, especially amongst resource stocks.. 

I don't know much about the Chinese stock market, but what I can see, it either goes pretty much straight down, or straight up for several months.. It seems to be embarking on the later.


----------



## Logique (20 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Cause for enormous concern that US market indices have broken below key technical support levels.

The DJIA has broken below 7500 and the SPX below 800.  Needs to turn around real soon and consolidate from here, otherwise we can see significant further falls in the US market.


----------



## Frank D (20 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2009/02/dow-s-weekly-14th-february-2009.html

US markets were always going to go lower in February and take out
 the previous lows.

If you want to see a bounce in US markets then February lows need to hold and reverse upwards in the last Week of this month

Keep in mind i'm expecting lower lows in 2009, which should take the 
US markets into the lower 6000's.

In the short-term i'm expecting 7250 to hold in February, but then 
again Market lows will dynamically shift lower also, with the potential 
down move into 6550 in the first Quarter for 2009.

It will all depend on how the last Week of February trades on whether 
there is a 20-30% reversal upwards, or another breakout pattern lower.


----------



## Sean K (20 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Still going sideways till 3300 ish broken? Is that the tipping point for the Wavers much discussed W5 down to ? 27-2800 ish?


----------



## MRC & Co (21 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

3300 is a HUGE technical level IMO.  Last time we saw that level, was on the BNB day, where instos were dumping relentlessly, but they had absolutely no chance in hell of getting through with the protection that came in there.  Probably the most well defended level I have ever seen or heard of in the SPI.

A clean break of that, and the all-time low will in all probability, be tested and broken.


----------



## tcoates (21 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Still going sideways till 3300 ish broken? Is that the tipping point for the Wavers much discussed W5 down to ? 27-2800 ish?




Would agree with that assessment. 

Putting aside wave counts, a simpler projection down (target) can be found at...

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/trading_diary.php

(It is just (?) the distance between resistance and support subtracted from support.)

Tim


----------



## nunthewiser (23 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bounce due....... is trading accordingly ............... stoplosses....blah blah blah ........

go stox


----------



## MRC & Co (23 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Extremelly interesting day.

Broke 3300s on the SPI, only to see Citibank news come out and rally us back above it.  Timely intervention.  

Tonight should see some fireworks in the US of A.


----------



## nunthewiser (23 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Extremelly interesting day.
> 
> Broke 3300s on the SPI, only to see Citibank news come out and rally us back above it.  Timely intervention.
> 
> Tonight should see some fireworks in the US of A.




Extremely

personally think its about the time that we have the "rally we had to have"

allbeit shortlived followed by new lows allround 

i am no guru swami tis all merely personal opinion


----------



## Sean K (23 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We could break up off this very important support area but if we slide through 3300 on a bad candle on volume, next stop could possibly be 27-2800 as mentioned earlier by a few people. A potential 500 point topple. I'm looking for a high probability short moreso than a long. DOW looks like it might open up, but who knows what skeleton might jump out of the closet...

This chart looks pretty disasterous because it's not semilog, but eeeeeeek!!!


----------



## nizar (23 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> We could break up off this very important support area but if we slide through 3300 on a bad candle on volume, next stop could possibly be 27-2800 as mentioned earlier by a few people. A potential 500 point topple. I'm looking for a high probability short moreso than a long. DOW looks like it might open up, but who knows what skeleton might jump out of the closet...
> 
> This chart looks pretty disasterous because it's not semilog, but eeeeeeek!!!




Kennas.
Seriously even if we fall to 2800.
We've already fallen 51%, whats another 15% lol


----------



## wayneL (24 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> Kennas.
> Seriously even if we fall to 2800.
> We've already fallen 51%, whats another 15% lol




Yeah! If it's worth doing, it's worth doing well.

Let's go for another 51%. :bonk:

:band


----------



## Aussiejeff (24 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> DOW looks like it might open up, but *who knows what skeleton might jump out of the closet...*




The jangling bones of Citibank spooked 'em alright... 

What happened to the light at the end of the tunnel? More gloom for Lil' Ozzie Bleeder today?


----------



## nunthewiser (24 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Bounce due....... is trading accordingly ............... stoplosses....blah blah blah ........
> 
> go stox




WTF??? no stops hit as yet ......... we holding up well .SO FAR 

personally thought i was gunna get smacked this morning


----------



## Sean K (24 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> WTF??? no stops hit as yet ......... we holding up well .SO FAR
> 
> personally thought i was gunna get smacked this morning



Half my watchist is green.


----------



## M34N (24 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Half my watchist is green.




Primarily thanks to TLS and WOW I take it?? Also seeing QBE and WPL outperforming for some bizarre reason, and LGL also doing OK.

I'm confused too, would of expected at the least a good 80-100 point drop, but maybe there is a silver lining out there somewhere that I can't see? lol


----------



## MRC & Co (24 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> I'm confused too, would of expected at the least a good 80-100 point drop, but maybe there is a silver lining out there somewhere that I can't see? lol




Yeh, I was looking for a bigger fall, we opened too high.

Think we may break lows this afternoon.  Pattern looks similar to the one on the 17th Feb (think it was).  Rally in the morning, come off near the lows, consolidate, before selling off hard.  Maybe?  Maybe not.


----------



## Aussiejeff (24 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, I was looking for a bigger fall, we opened too high.
> 
> Think we may break lows this afternoon.  Pattern looks similar to the one on the 17th Feb (think it was).  Rally in the morning, come off near the lows, consolidate, before selling off hard.  Maybe?  Maybe not.




Either there's still a lot of uber-optimistic Oz punters propping the market or there's some uber-greedy, sneaky Chinese share buying going on, or a mixture of both?

Whatever the reason, the All Ords has creamed the DOW in the past week.


----------



## M34N (24 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Also interesting to note the SPI below 3,300 level at around 3,290, but the ASX200 trading just above at around 3,310, but the XAO down to around 3,270. This 3,300 level is showing VERY strong support, and even with the Dow down more than 3% overnight we are still holding up reasonably.

Even yesterday's falls were modest and factored in a big rise on the Dow for last night, which never eventuated. What's propping up our market? Maybe a nice rally being priced in for the Dow? Hmmmm.


----------



## Sean K (25 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Impressive day today, after the DOWs 3% fall. Hang one, it went 3% up!



XAO rejecting 3300 looks ominous. 

Maybe the Downs will win the prize?


----------



## nunthewiser (25 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

it can do what it wishes now  ive done what i set out to do


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Impressive day today, after the DOWs 3% fall. Hang one, it went 3% up!
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Option MM shenanigans. Take today out of the charts & Fridays volume. Move along nothing to see here ....  :sheep:


----------



## MrBurns (25 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yep spot on again - 

Predicted by well known expert - 



> The first step to recovery
> Robert Gottliebsen
> A rally on Wall Street overnight will feed into a strong performance in Australia today. Over the longer term, US banks will need to be much more upfront about their position if they want to be helped. 25 Feb 2009 8:14 AM



 

Actual result - 

S&P/ASX200  3325.2   -6.4 
ALL ORDS  3280.2   -4.8


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Yep spot on again -
> 
> Predicted by well known expert -
> 
> ...




wait for the pop


----------



## MrBurns (25 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> wait for the pop




Normaly I would but I couldn't see this turning into a "strong performance".

S&P/ASX200  3327.5   -4.1 
ALL ORDS  3281.5   -3.5


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Normaly I would but I couldn't see this turning into a "strong performance".
> 
> S&P/ASX200  3327.5   -4.1
> ALL ORDS  3281.5   -3.5




Yep was expecting more but you are right. As far as the tossers over on Biz Spec I'm going to start a thread on their poor calls. Think their disciples need a counter balance. And Free!!

In fact the pop is happening now on the Futs.


----------



## MrBurns (25 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yep was expecting more but you are right. As far as the tossers over on Biz Spec I'm going to start a thread on their poor calls. Think their disciples need a counter balance. And Free!!
> 
> In fact the pop is happening now on the Futs.




It's unpredictable now, job loss figures, big ones are being released daily, it's a real mess out there, I think there is huge potential for a large fall before long.

We now have companies reporting 50% profit reductions and thousands of job losses almost on a daily basis.


----------



## grace (25 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Yep spot on again -
> 
> Predicted by well known expert -
> 
> ...




Sorry, can you just explain that to the naive - that's me!


----------



## So_Cynical (25 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> We now have companies reporting 50% profit reductions and thousands of job losses almost on a daily basis.




And we have 40 to 95% share price reductions....and divis that now reflect those 
new market caps....how much more bad news can the market factor in until its full.


----------



## MrBurns (25 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

See this post Grace - 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=401977&postcount=6235


----------



## MrBurns (25 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



So_Cynical said:


> And we have 40 to 95% share price reductions....and divis that now reflect those
> new market caps....how much more bad news can the market factor in until its full.




I dunno we're in new territory, but stunned by it all and sick of it now as well.
The only thing left that could happen is a collapse of the financial system, could happen.


----------



## Gundini (25 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> The only thing left that could happen is a collapse of the financial system, could happen.




Too big to fall 

Your talking about our economic system to collapse? 

No way, not in Australia... We have too much good going for us...


----------



## fapturbo (26 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

10 Year 1 Week Candle Chart.

Fair to say if get close to 2850 could be close to a bottom.

Market will decide.


----------



## julius (26 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

fabturbo,

You're chart doesn't show anything. You can fit a curve to any chart after the fact and make it look like 'support'.



fapturbo said:


> 10 Year 1 Week Candle Chart.
> 
> Fair to say if get close to 2850 could be close to a bottom.
> 
> Market will decide.


----------



## MrBurns (26 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gundini said:


> Too big to fall
> 
> Your talking about our economic system to collapse?
> 
> No way, not in Australia... We have too much good going for us...




It's already happening overseas, not sure what that means for us but it cant be good.


----------



## fapturbo (26 February 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



julius said:


> fabturbo,
> 
> You're chart doesn't show anything. You can fit a curve to any chart after the fact and make it look like 'support'.




True, but it does show the range that contains most of the data in the last 10 years.

If we get a depression like event occuring and we lose around 80-90% of value from markets then XAO will end up around the 700-800 range also.


----------



## M34N (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO now at 3215 and ASX200 as 3260, this is I think a new low and looking very weak here. Anyone game enough to short or go long here? A few on my watchlist looking extremely bad (namely QBE and MQG), but there's just as much green or flat also (WOW, NCM, LGL, TLS) so defensive stocks/goldies doing OK, doesn't _feel_ like a big downleg yet so unsure what to think here at the moment?

Will have to see how it closes later on in the day, but not too optimistic.


----------



## fapturbo (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Fridays price action suggests a new lower low.

Trend is down.

Consolidation.... Move.... Consolidtion.... Move....

Lower Highs and Lower Lows.


----------



## gfresh (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

BHP broken trend also.. watchout below


----------



## Sean K (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> BHP broken trend also.. watchout below



Breaking 28 looks untidy to me. 3300 clearly broken it would seem on the XAO. Not sure how significant that Nov low at 3200 is compared to 3300. Looks like the Downs have it to me.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Not sure how significant that Nov low at 3200 is compared to 3300. Looks like the Downs have it to me.




Its a HUGE number. It was defended like I haven't seen before on the futs. Some SERIOUS money stepped up at that level, serious!!

Will be keen to see if they are as interested this time around


----------



## Mactavish (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

2800 here we come!!!


----------



## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Guy in the US, Jim Rogers seems to know what he's talking about says agriculture will be the boomer over the next 10 - 20 Years, anyone know any good agriculture stocks ?

(yes I know do your own research, whadaya think this is ? )


----------



## MRC & Co (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

NUF perhaps MrBurns.

S&P at new lows once again, our market showing resilience.  May just chop our way down to new lows at this rate.


----------



## tcoates (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Mr Burns,

The CommSec AgStocks index is made up of Australian Agricultural Co Ltd, ABB Grain Ltd, AWB Ltd, Futuris Corp Ltd, GrainCorp Ltd, Incitec Pivot, Nufarm Ltd, Queensland Cotton Holdings Ltd and Ridley Corp Ltd.

(Source: http://www.abcmoney.co.uk/news/22200775088.htm*)

* Tim

PS. Minus Queensland Cotton Holdings (http://www.qcotton.com.au/about/med...d Recommends Olam's Higher Offer 28-05-07.pdf)


----------



## MrBurns (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks fellas


----------



## marcadrian (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



M34N said:


> XAO now at 3215 and ASX200 as 3260, this is I think a new low and looking very weak here. Anyone game enough to short or go long here? A few on my watchlist looking extremely bad (namely QBE and MQG), but there's just as much green or flat also (WOW, NCM, LGL, TLS) so defensive stocks/goldies doing OK, doesn't _feel_ like a big downleg yet so unsure what to think here at the moment?
> 
> Will have to see how it closes later on in the day, but not too optimistic.




Yes currently going short on a few stocks with big market cap (above 800m) and doing very well out of it. Seems to be easy pickings at the moment on the short side of town!


----------



## sam76 (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



marcadrian said:


> Yes currently going short on a few stocks with big market cap (above 800m) and doing very well out of it. Seems to be easy pickings at the moment on the short side of town!




which means it's time to go long


----------



## hotbmw (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

were going down to 2800 and i hope so!!!


----------



## Struzball (2 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



hotbmw said:


> were going down to 2800 and i hope so!!!




Reminds me of when everyone was saying 'we're gonna hit 7000!!!!'


----------



## Sean K (3 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Its a HUGE number. It was defended like I haven't seen before on the futs. Some SERIOUS money stepped up at that level, serious!!
> 
> Will be keen to see if they are as interested this time around



Still being defended in the short term it seems. But this is ASX 200 mini, which doesn't like me much. 

Wish I was short around the 3300 level....


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Breaking 28 looks untidy to me. 3300 clearly broken it would seem on the XAO. Not sure how significant that Nov low at 3200 is compared to 3300. Looks like the Downs have it to me.




Well she is sitting 50 points lower than that . Wouldn't be surprised if it runs up to close that gap after the morning sweep is done.


----------



## tech/a (3 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Page 304 post 6069
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=304

Now reaching these levels,seen through the analysis in that post.


----------



## nizar (3 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Page 304 post 6069
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=304
> 
> Now reaching these levels,seen through the analysis in that post.




Good work.
So where to now in your opinion?


----------



## Logique (3 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Rousing performance from the brave little Aussie battler this morning, in the face of a 4.2% slump in the Dow overnight, the XAO is off just 41 points at 3163.


----------



## MrBurns (3 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Rousing performance from the brave little Aussie battler this morning, in the face of a 4.2% slump in the Dow overnight, the XAO is off just 41 points at 3163.




Good opportunity to sell......


----------



## MS+Tradesim (3 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Good opportunity to sell......




I'm not so sure.

1) USA was sold down all session.

2) We fell early and came up

3) Got hit and recovered just as quickly after interest rate decision

4) Still ticking up, now only -0.91%.

5) DJIA futs up about 1%, Nikkei has recovered to only about -0.1%

There seem to be plenty willing to support the XAO at this level. What will it take to really knock it down and keep it going? Personally, I wish it would just get flogged and bottom out and be done, but that just may not happen.

I will not be surprised if I get a bunch of long reversal signals this afternoon.


----------



## nomore4s (3 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> I will not be surprised if I get a bunch of long reversal signals this afternoon.




I've already had a few but have only taken 1 so far. Missed out on another


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Wouldn't be surprised if it runs up to close that gap after the morning sweep is done.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (3 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL. 

Ps. Got 5 signals. All have crap liquidity so none will be taken.


----------



## tech/a (3 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


>





Very cryptic.
Was scratching around for a while!
I actually thought her name was Elliott and she was going to wave!


----------



## namrog (3 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Pardon me for saying tech, but I think you will have to scratch around a bit more to decode this message.

What I'm seeing in this pattern , is a bit of self back slapping, and rightly deserved too.


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I actually thought her name was Elliott and she was going to wave!



 Nah that would be this one, 





namrog said:


> What I'm seeing in this pattern , is a bit of self back slapping, and rightly deserved too.



 Thanks, subscription news letter out soon. $$$ :brille:


----------



## barry593 (9 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What's with the 75 point negative spike in the xao / xjo  at 1430 today?


----------



## nomore4s (9 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Barry refer this thread for info


----------



## tech/a (11 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Posted this on the E/W thread.



> Time for a turn
> XAO spot on.--Simple analysis just as I like it.
> Click to enlarge.
> Looking now for a retracement to 3900 to 4400


----------



## nunthewiser (12 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For what its worth ......... i have entered 2 shorts as of this morning

time for a turn ?


----------



## MR. (12 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> For what its worth ......... i have entered 2 shorts as of this morning
> 
> time for a turn ?




and he's back.  Thought we lost you there, hunched over the keyboard......

I've never taken a short.  "Very un-productive" perhaps.......
Opportunities lost everywhere.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> and he's back.  Thought we lost you there, hunched over the keyboard......
> 
> I've never taken a short.  "Very un-productive" perhaps.......
> Opportunities lost everywhere.




been wandering the earth like grasshopper for a week or so ...... back now tho 

just another side to my trading re " short" 


not here to destroy or make anything ...merely follow the money


----------



## mitch87 (19 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

im of the opinion we have found the bottom, for now!
after a nice rally to 3,400 points, i think maybe a move back to 3,200 is likely, then a slow upward trend reaching 3,800 by june/july...just in time for the start of reporting season.in which the market will only have bad news, as the australian exports will continue to dwindle for a little longer yet, this, and a slight possibility of a recession being official by 2qcy09 may send xao back to 3,100, or lower, at this time, the us economy will be reporting firm results of recovery and the end to their recession by around 4qcy09 and the slow process of gaining the momentum all over again that once blew the economy along very nicely.I see a recovery almost immediately after australian reporting is over, and we will not be in recession for long, if at all, and a slow upward trend will start again, reaching 4,000 points this time in 2010.any thoughts??


this is just my opinion, and i wouldnt even consider it an educated opinion.


----------



## Real1ty (20 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well mitch you have certainly put your predictions out there complete with dates so if you can get somewhere close to that, you have done very well.


----------



## davo8 (21 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mitch87 said:


> im of the opinion we have found the bottom, for now!
> after a nice rally to 3,400 points, i think maybe a move back to 3,200 is likely, then a slow upward trend reaching 3,800 by june/july...the us economy will be reporting firm results of recovery and the end to their recession by around 4qcy09




No. I'll stick to my forecast, based on a solid understanding of the truly awful fundamentals and major disasters still bearing down on the US economy.

1. The US will be in recession/depression all this year and most of next. Any recovery will be slow and weak, and likely followed by a further collapse in 2011, at least partly because oil will rise sharply.

2. All countries exporting to the US will suffer eg China, Japan, SE Asia, Gulf. Australian GDP will remain subdued.

3. This is NOT the bottom. The next dip will go lower. Watch for a crisis in May. Sell while you can.:22_yikes:


----------



## saiter (21 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> No. I'll stick to my forecast, based on a solid understanding of the truly awful fundamentals and major disasters still bearing down on the US economy.
> 
> 1. The US will be in recession/depression all this year and most of next. Any recovery will be slow and weak, and likely followed by a further collapse in 2011, at least partly because oil will rise sharply.
> 
> ...




Why May?


----------



## wonderrman (21 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> No. I'll stick to my forecast, based on a solid understanding of the truly awful fundamentals and major disasters still bearing down on the US economy.
> 
> 1. The US will be in recession/depression all this year and most of next. Any recovery will be slow and weak, and likely followed by a further collapse in 2011, at least partly because oil will rise sharply.
> 
> ...




All though I share your 'long-term' views on how the US is going to turn in it's grave, and that probably the rest of the world will follow, I think it will take longer then May for it to reflect in the stock market.  In the mean time, price action is your friend and charting your way through the markets is going to prove the winning bet one would think. Chuck this fundamental crap out the window.


----------



## Sean K (21 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



saiter said:


> Why May?



Careful for specifics or any analysis off Davo. All we know is that this is NOT the bottom.


----------



## Logique (24 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Cause for enormous concern that US market indices have broken below key technical support levels.
> 
> The DJIA has broken below 7500 and the SPX below 800.  Needs to turn around real soon and consolidate from here, otherwise we can see significant further falls in the US market.



Well blow me down if the DJIA and SPX haven't moved back above these key levels, and into the bargain the XAO so far has held above the 3100 level (at 3500 plus this morning). Good fuel for the bulls, but I'm not sure a 7% overnight gain in the US indices can hold without some consolidation.


----------



## sinner (30 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Short Australia 200 Cash from last 1h bar close at 3620.

Mostly as a hedge against open longs on the market which I do not want to give up.


----------



## sinner (30 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi guys,

Will exit this position now (3556) if there is a bounce from current level, or add to the position if there is a break down.


----------



## sinner (30 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ok closed the short on a wide-arsed spread at 3562 after break of intermediate trend-line and bounce off 800MA on the 15m. 

So I lied a bit when I said this was a hedge, it was also because I was a bit bored with forex and saw a move on the index. But anyway, profits from this have hopefully offset any losses from my pretty tiny longs over the next few days. Thankfully mostly small lots on gains derived from the forex, so not too concerned, but if we fall back under the 50MA on the daily I will probably add shorts again.

I notice I am the only one posting, hope my posts are not annoying anyone!


----------



## Aussiejeff (31 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sinner said:


> Ok closed the short on a wide-arsed spread at 3562 after break of intermediate trend-line and bounce off 800MA on the 15m.
> 
> So I lied a bit when I said this was a hedge, it was also because I was a bit bored with forex and saw a move on the index. But anyway, profits from this have hopefully offset any losses from my pretty tiny longs over the next few days. Thankfully mostly small lots on gains derived from the forex, so not too concerned, but if we fall back under the 50MA on the daily I will probably add shorts again.
> 
> I notice I am the only one posting, hope my posts are not annoying anyone!




Nah. Couldn't sleep anyway!

How many pair of shorts did you say you were going to add?


----------



## Aussiejeff (31 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



saiter said:


> Why May?




Why not April?

April 1st sounds like a reasonable start date to me....


----------



## wintermute (31 March 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hmmm I made a prediction in Oct last year that the XAO would be at 4100 april 1st.  based on a variation of the chart I'm about to post.  Unfortunately I was wrong, but at the time 4100 seemed quite a long way down  

I posted this over a T$  but It might be a better place here   be warned my charting is notoriously inaccurate, and my interpretations perhaps a little unorthodox, so laugh if you must, but I reckon we saw the bottom... of course anything is possible with the worlds economic meltdown, so take this post with a bucket of salt!  

If you look far enough back in this thread you will probably see previous incarnations of this chart, I suspect some of the posts saying that we were going to see an 87 style crash. 

below from my post at T$

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Well I decided to fire up Incredible charts again, and have another look at the XAO. I've gone back to my original trend channel, with a slight adjustment for the latest plummet and turnaround, and it to me is looking quite interesting.

I haven't really used the commodity channel indicator before, but in this application it seems to be quite telling, certainly it would seem that when approaching the -200 mark it is a pretty safe bet that the current bottom has been reached (this on the monthly chart, I haven't looked at weekly or daily). This has been the case for almost all of the worst bottomings in the last 30 years.

The other thing I found interesting was the RSI. I had been using it to try and predict the top of the market (before I lost interest and foolishly stopped, otherwise I may be a lot better off now than I am)... It's normal oversold level (on the monthly) seems to be around 40, though in this case it has gone down to almost 20. I really do think we have seen the falling off a cliff stage, and whilst a recovery will probably be long and painful I think we have probably now seen the real bottom... however if you take that bottom trend line as the absolute, then there is potential for the market to stay low for a long time! it could quite easily bounce along off that bottom trendline, and could take many years to go anywhere near the top one!

I've also drawn a couple of parallel lines on the chart, one at 1750 and another at about 3300 (which is the point where the bottom trend channel was touched. we have now recovered to around 3500. What is significant about this? Well from the run up in 1987 before the crash, the XAO hit 1750 in may, 22 years later we are now sitting at just double that at 3500. That is a 100% gain in the market over a period of 22 years. The market has fallen around 50% which means a 100% gain is necessary to get back to where it was before the crash. This crash, to me looks (on the chart) to have been more severe than 1987. Anyway its not all doom and gloom, at least it looks like things are turning around, but it might be a while before the next bubble comes along. I suspect that it is largely a generational thing!

Of course this is all tea leaf reading voodoo, but it looks good on paper 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Tony.

edit:  I thought it interesting to revisit this post  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=143115&postcount=359  The worst bit is, I stopped watching the market around Sep (getting ready for birth of my daughter) and got caught holding all of my stocks


----------



## nomore4s (5 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Possible H&S pattern forming on the XAO. On both the daily & weekly charts but easier to see on the weekly chart.

Of course this is just one possiblity of many. The market will prove or disprove as it sees fit.


----------



## Go Nuke (7 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All the double tops on during the bull market were followed up with new highs.

So...a new high could be on the way.......but not yet.

The MACD is totally over cooked in my opinion and is looking to retrace soon.

A break through about 3690 and it should be the next leg up.

Just my thoughts


----------



## nikemi (7 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Go Nuke said:


> All the double tops on during the bull market were followed up with new highs.
> 
> So...a new high could be on the way.......but not yet.
> 
> ...




The only difference that i see is that both tops are formed in a bull market while our doble top here is part of the bear leg, not sure if that would make a diff. Just my observations...


----------



## MRC & Co (7 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nikemi said:


> The only difference that i see is that both tops are formed in a bull market while our doble top here is part of the bear leg, *not sure if that would make a diff.* Just my observations...




Big diff.


----------



## nomore4s (7 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like the banks run finally came to a screaming halt today. I think we'll see a retest of 3500 in the next few days, will be interesting to see if there is any sort of support there.

Chart marked up with some possiblities. 

I'm probably favouring #2 at this stage, a pullback just far enough to shake out some sellers then up towards 4300, but the market will do what it wants.


----------



## davo8 (7 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Go Nuke said:


> A break through about 3690 and it should be the next leg up.




You may be right, but I'm betting you're not. I read the chart as a primary down trend not yet broken, so we shall be seeing 3200 again. 

This is confirmed by the truly horrible economic news still unfolding in US, UK, Europe, Japan, etc. Major indicators point to an outcome as severe as the Great Depression, which should bottom in 2010 and recover slowly. The markets don't look that far ahead.

I hope I'm wrong.


----------



## wonderrman (7 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Looks like the banks run finally came to a screaming halt today. I think we'll see a retest of 3500 in the next few days, will be interesting to see if there is any sort of support there.
> 
> Chart marked up with some possiblities.
> 
> I'm probably favouring #2 at this stage, a pullback just far enough to shake out some sellers then up towards 4300, but the market will do what it wants.




Hello, yes these are the three responses I have been looking at as we approach this resistence on my chart as well. It will be interesting to see how we go. Obviously option 1 is very bullish and I will be looking to get into the large caps if this pattern emerges. If I had the money I would be shorting the **** out of Gold as well.

W.


----------



## MRC & Co (8 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All good ideas nomore.

Trouble is IMO, if that WAS infact the low for some time (perhaps years), we may just move into a choppy range, whereby there will be a serious of HL, LH, LL and HHs, making it very hard to trade, with no clear trend and no clear reference points to trade from.  

From trading intraday, these are the parts you need to stay out of, unless you fade a basic area of the range, but it's hard, because you have no clear stop placement (or reference point, as I stated earlier).  

Makes it very very tough times for EOD traders IMVHO.


----------



## davo8 (8 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wonderrman said:


> Obviously option 1 is very bullish and I will be looking to get into the large caps if this pattern emerges. If I had the money I would be shorting the **** out of Gold as well.
> W.




Again, I really wonder why. I can understand having a punt on the ASX -- there must be sectors out there that will benefit from something happening somewhere in the world. Not financials, though.

But why bet against gold? There is a significant possibility of a US or UK default (they both did during the last depression), and/or a round of serious inflation (stagflation as per the 1970s). In either case you could get your head handed to you on a platter.


----------



## nomore4s (8 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> All good ideas nomore.
> 
> Trouble is IMO, if that WAS infact the low for some time (perhaps years), we may just move into a choppy range, whereby there will be a serious of HL, LH, LL and HHs, making it very hard to trade, with no clear trend and no clear reference points to trade from.
> 
> ...




You may be right but we will have to see how it all plays out.



davo8 said:


> Again, I really wonder why. I can understand having a punt on the ASX -- there must be sectors out there that will benefit from something happening somewhere in the world. Not financials, though.




Yeah the rally in the financials hasn't been worth trading. Long term there could be more downside but they will provide some very good trading opps.


----------



## Sean K (10 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not sure how this looks on a semi-log, but on this looks to be pushing up against the channel and also horizontal resistance, so this area seems to be significant. Does it fall over and continue the downward slide, to further lows, or start going sideways, or up..

Disregard fundamentals for a moment, and consider the facts.

Of course, the lines could be placed differently to create your own facts too...


----------



## enigmatic (10 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well Kennas if you look at your chart every time it hits the outter range it has fallen heavily so with my Slim TA knowledge wouldnt this mean we would be expecting another major fall soon or is it just my different point of view of the same facts.. 

Maybe on Wednesday the trap door will open and the share market will plummet like it has the last few times could be 2500 this time


----------



## Green08 (10 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Disregard fundamentals for a moment, and consider the facts.



Aren't the fundamentals the facts Agree with enigmatic views


----------



## enigmatic (10 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry Kennas but I stole your chart and added in two other lines which i think may help with analysis of XAO


----------



## Sean K (10 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



enigmatic said:


> Sorry Kennas but I stole your chart and added in two other lines which i think may help with analysis of XAO



I'd put the second red line about 4850.


----------



## enigmatic (10 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Putting the line were i did or were you would at 4850 all depends on what your trying to prove... TA is only ever right If it fits your opinion..

The lines I placed were only supporting my view of a breakdown.. however I would most likely normally placed a few more lines in one just above 5500 the 6000 one i would of shifted down a little added one at 4900 one at 4000 and one at 3500 and one at 3100 

however all of those line are all based on your chart time scale with a different time scale for each candle stick the lines could easily and I know they would be different.
This one shows that we are still quiet Bearish doesnt it.


----------



## Sean K (10 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



enigmatic said:


> Putting the line were i did or were you would at 4850 all depends on what your trying to prove... TA is only ever right If it fits your opinion..



 I thought it was generally accepted that most resistance on the way back up is where previous lows were, that's all. I'm probably wrong.


----------



## So_Cynical (10 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Are the small red (March bottom) candles on enigmatic's chart relevant 
to anything? :dunno: can that low volume mean anything?

It is a volume candle chart right?


----------



## enigmatic (10 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm Sure your more likely to be correct then myself kennas,
I think my point was more that you can In theory places the lines any were depending on time scale and what your intended outcome.

with however your statement about them being at the previous low, could there not be some sort of overshoot resistance my be at 4900 however if something occurs to shortly break through resistance for the day on a day by day candlestick or week by week candlestick trend are we actually going to see the support line at 4900 or is it going to be seen at 4850.

And my chart is a Monthly chart so the small red candlesticks in March may or may not be relevent


----------



## tech/a (10 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Most of this analysis is on the Elliott Thread
but this seems to be playing out perfectly so far


----------



## Sean K (11 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Most of this analysis is on the Elliott Thread
> but this seems to be playing out perfectly so far



Could we be in a W2 at the moment Tech, about to start W3?


----------



## tech/a (11 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Could we be in a W2 at the moment Tech, about to start W3?




I really doubt it.

The weekly is in a wave 4 corrective move so I see this as a wave "A" on the daily.5 waves up and 3 down.
But if price action negates the current count as you know there will be another.

But for the time being will remain bullish.Thats really all I need to know.


----------



## IFocus (11 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Could we be in a W2 at the moment Tech, about to start W3?




Kennas as we are talking EW is that WW2 or WW3


----------



## MRC & Co (11 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Kennas as we are talking EW is that WW2 or WW3




LOL


----------



## Boggo (11 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is actually a chart of the XJO which I find has been fairly predictable.

Assuming that it will continue to bounce between Decision Points then something will have to give when it gets to around the 3900 area.
A break up through that area would be a significant move in the right direction.

tech/a or anyone using AGET I suspect that you may have a MOB around the 3900 area also on the XJO ?

(click to expand)


----------



## saiter (11 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Could we be in a W2 at the moment Tech, about to start W3?




This is how I'm seeing it as well. Also, the Dow also seems to be in/wrapping up a W2 at the moment.


----------



## davo8 (12 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



saiter said:


> This is how I'm seeing it as well. Also, the Dow also seems to be in/wrapping up a W2 at the moment.




I don't do waves, but the trend is down so I'll put in a bid for a major crash on the DOW within a week, 2 at most. This is based on reading a number of US souces, but especially this one: zero hedge.



> "Anyone who is doing anything sensible right now is either losing money or is out of the market entirely." These are the words of a quant trader, who is seeing something scary in the capital markets. Scary enough to merit a warning that we could be on the verge of another October 87, August 2007, or January 2008.




Lots of charts, lots of reading. And where the DOW goes, the ASX shall surely follow before too long.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> I don't do waves, but the trend is down so I'll put in a bid for a major crash on the DOW within a week, 2 at most. This is based on reading a number of US souces, but especially this one: zero hedge.
> 
> 
> 
> Lots of charts, lots of reading. And where the DOW goes, the ASX shall surely follow before too long.




The only convincing projection that I can do on the xao is included.

Testing 3000 has found support.

It may breach this but should hold just below.

If it falls below 2800 then it is women and children last!

It will take until late 2010 on the trendline for this "correction" to work itself out.

gg


----------



## Uncle Festivus (12 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



davo8 said:


> I don't do waves, but the trend is down so I'll put in a bid for a major crash on the DOW within a week, 2 at most. This is based on reading a number of US souces, but especially this one: zero hedge.
> Lots of charts, lots of reading. And where the DOW goes, the ASX shall surely follow before too long.




Zero Hedges' argument is based on volume stats, and Goldman Sachs & their capital raising smoke & mirrors show to pump the sp. Where this ends up will have an effect on the XAO, eventually. This is a weekly chart, notice the decreasing volume......ascending wedge.....hitting downtrend line???


----------



## OzWaveGuy (14 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking specifically at the upcoming Anzac Day Holiday and it's relationship to the XAO, historically the index has performed reasonably well 2 weeks before the 25th of April.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the index continue upwards considering the recent 'bumps' have failed to correct the index down to lower levels since the start of the recent rally.

I certainly won't be discounting a larger downwards correction considering the divergence on a number of momentum indicators - however, such indicators can be divergent for some time before a larger correction or change in trend eventuates. 

Historically, after Anzac Day the immediate trend was down 8 out of 11 years.


----------



## Sean K (16 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Been a pretty good run since the potential bottom. So far. Haven't made the most of it unfortunately, but glad not to have completely hibernated. Has been an awesome opportunity really. Just checking a few resourse stocks and we have 100% plus gains, and more. 

3700-3750 looks important here. There should be some decent consolidation soon you'd expect, and about here for mine. If not here, then


----------



## nunthewiser (16 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

personally think its time to get those shorts on ........

and is trading accordingly 

could always be wrong and have to use that magic "save our cash "button


----------



## nomore4s (17 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Looks like the banks run finally came to a screaming halt today. I think we'll see a retest of 3500 in the next few days, will be interesting to see if there is any sort of support there.
> 
> Chart marked up with some possiblities.
> 
> I'm probably favouring #2 at this stage, a pullback just far enough to shake out some sellers then up towards 4300, but the market will do what it wants.




All three possibilities still in play at this stage as well as the H&S pattern.

The next leg down will give alot of clues to how we will progress from here - ie bear market rally or the first leg up of an extended rally or maybe just sideways between 3200 & 3800.

To the current chart.  Some very strong bearish divergence now with 3 attempts to go higher through resistance. It would take a huge couple of days in the US to push us any higher in the immediate future imo.

I would like to see support hold at 3500 but I don't think it will, I think we will probe under that to shake a few people out and then a retest of 3800 but the market will do what the market wants.


----------



## Boggo (18 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> ...
> 3700-3750 looks important here. There should be some decent consolidation soon you'd expect, and about here for mine. If not here, then




If these two (XJO and DJI) can hang in there now then we may have seen the bottom. 
The US reporting season may change all of that but at the moment this looks to me like it has the potential to be positive.

(click to enlarge)


----------



## Struzball (19 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

General concensis here is people are just buying in for the ride.  
I think as soon as there's sign it's stopped rising for now it'll shoot straight back down to 3400.

It's probable we've already seen the bottom but this rally is unsustainable at this stage IMO.


----------



## tech/a (22 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Analysis still remains the same.
This is a wave 4 in a 5 wave up move by the looks.
Still some more to come off before moving on for a short while.


----------



## clayton4115 (24 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

my analysis indicates a bearish short term situation on the asx, what are your thoughts?


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's the truth, the recession hasn't really hit yet but is about to so fasten your seat belts.



> Wall St going 'back to reality' as recession strikes
> By North America correspondent Michael Rowland for AM
> 
> Posted 5 hours 45 minutes ago
> ...




http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/24/2551380.htm


----------



## Sean K (24 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Here's the truth, the recession hasn't really hit yet but is about to so fasten your seat belts.



Of course it hasn't really hit in Australia except for a few job losses and forward bookings lost, but it will. We all know this. Cripes, even the taxi drivers know this now. 

Thus, the markets have counted this in. 

Check charts of all income stocks on the ASX with price earnings ratios way under 14. The recession/depression is mostly factored in.

It could get worse, but lets not assume that it hasn't been factored in to current share prices, and thus create buying opportunities for those dedicated to the investment game.

Remember, the market over and under shoots. 

Trading is about making money off the price movement of stocks (etc), not the overall state of the economy.


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What the article is saying is that the US hasn't been hit by the full force of the downturn yet, so as bad as it is there now it will get a lot worse and we follow them so it's not looking good.

You know the share market better then I but I still think there is a huge crunch yet to come.


----------



## Nyden (24 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> What the article is saying is that the US hasn't been hit by the full force of the downturn yet, so as bad as it is there now it will get a lot worse and we follow them so it's not looking good.
> 
> You know the share market better then I but I still think there is a huge crunch yet to come.




Yes, but Burns - we all have access to this article, we all have access to most of the information out there; that's the whole point, and reason that markets are forward thinking.

Here's an example of what happens with markets on a whole, ahem. Company XYZ mines copper, copper all of a sudden falls drastically; thus people sell on this information, with the expectation of further falls, and for company profits to be down 50%. 

Reporting day comes, profits are only down 30%, a positive surprise - hence why "less bad" news, *is* good news, because the price had reflected more dire results!

Why do you think share prices are down 50%? People don't sell on the on-the-day implications of yesterdays bad news, they sell on what they perceive to be the *future impact* of that news.


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Yes, but Burns - we all have access to this article, we all have access to most of the information out there; that's the whole point, and reason that markets are forward thinking.
> 
> Here's an example of what happens with markets on a whole, ahem. Company XYZ mines copper, copper all of a sudden falls drastically; thus people sell on this information, with the expectation of further falls, and for company profits to be down 50%.
> 
> ...




Ok understood and well put Nyden. I have a more simplistic approach and still think that the news yet to come will be very bad, worse than people expect.

I almost always go on gut feel for these things.

But yes what you say is very well put and explains how the markets work very clearly thanks for that


----------



## zacaxel1975 (24 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It seems to have fallen off a cliff around 1.30pm today. Anyone know what that is all about?


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



zacaxel1975 said:


> It seems to have fallen off a cliff around 1.30pm today. Anyone know what that is all about?




No buyers today. Simple


----------



## Largesse (24 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

would require bravery to hold over the weekend in the middle of earnings season. also bank stress test results about to be realeased?


----------



## clayton4115 (24 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

wise to hold the short spi position overnight into the weekend?


----------



## Largesse (24 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i'm too young to be wise


----------



## Cartman (24 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Largesse said:


> i'm too young to be wise





lol --- i think that may be a wise move !!   (ie not to hold shorts for too long )

i reckon the "deep pockets" will squeeze every last drop out of this over the next week/weeks (who knows) b4 it has another *serious* dig lower ----- no T/A or charts involved in that opinion  ---- but it seems that when all the "average" punters are looking to short (and that is the vibe on the street) ----  it's time to look for the final spike high !!  ---- 

the deep pockets have to unload on somebody b4 any capitulation !!   ----- id reckon some ranging/volatility b4  any serious move to the downside  ---- could be totally wrong though -----


----------



## Struzball (24 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Cripes, even the taxi drivers know this now.
> 
> Thus, the markets have counted this in.




Amen!


----------



## MRC & Co (25 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting thoughts Cartman, thx.

I thought the false break through previous Jan highs was that final spike, but you may be right, we could perhaps get another one.

Motorway put it best, first they try to scare you out, then they try to bore you out!  

When I finally give up on running some large short positions, it will tank, completely out of the blue, based on absolutely nothing, no news, no big reason, it just will.

Have to be on the ball or by the time you notice it, that juicy entry will be missed.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (27 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Based on the cycle bands i use which are written by Wavepicker.

The SP500 1 hour has reached a area of over bought on the top of the cycle range. Looking for a turn in trend, tonight most likey but May come in tomorrow. (waiting on confrimation)

The ASX. 

Due to the sp500 lead... I belive today will be the last leg up before a trun in trend comes in and selling picks up. I will ne be looking to sell the ASX200 and SP500 tonight.

Cheers,

Based on the spi open market may not complete a move up today... look to short the sp500 only


----------



## >Apocalypto< (27 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

update.

short SPX500 (CFD) ent 857.5 stop 870.1 limit 830.5

Good trading


----------



## Sean K (27 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> Based on the cycle bands i use which are written by Wavepicker.
> 
> The SP500 1 hour has reached a area of over bought on the top of the cycle range. Looking for a turn in trend, tonight most likey but May come in tomorrow. (waiting on confrimation)
> 
> ...



If it falls over from here it means the top was actually a week or so ago, wasn't it?

So, the cycle bands will be proven incorrect?

Correct me if I'm wrong. 

The potential fallover at 3750 was pretty easy from basic S&R wasn't it?


----------



## >Apocalypto< (27 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> If it falls over from here it means the top was actually a week or so ago, wasn't it?
> 
> So, the cycle bands will be proven incorrect?
> 
> ...




Kennas, this anit time cycle points mate. They're bands set on the price that work off a dominate cycle. They show extrems in the price. this is theory / systems devaloped by Hurst.

This has been adapted by Wavepicker in his own way to make this system with some touches from myself.

At times the bands fail at times they work what system doesn't, it's what you average at weeks end that matters! At times the pa shows the trade at times you will never see it. 

This is not about being spot on to the day it's about waiting for the price to reach an extrem and give an entry. combined strict money managment and entry criteria we have the system.

I am up on my short and would not call anything failed yet

Cheers,


----------



## Sean K (27 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> Kennas, this anit time cycle points mate. They're bands set on the price that work off a dominate cycle. They show extrems in the price. this is theory / systems devaloped by Hurst.



Maybe you could show/explain what this is then to help us out?


----------



## >Apocalypto< (27 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Maybe you could show/explain what this is then to help us out?




as it's Wavepickers, what i can explain and show will be limited but I will post trades at point of taking with charts. If anyone wants me to prove trades I can do that aswell. This is still in a testing phase so I am not taking massive trades.

Members have to understand this is four years of his work and delavopment. The exact method won't be shared. As that would be like me asking Norm to give me a copy of his EA.....

Cheers,


----------



## Sean K (27 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> what i can explain and show will be limited but I will post trades at point of taking with charts. If anyone wants me to prove trades I can do that aswell.



No requirement to prove trades if they're real time.

We have your first one, based on this system we are not privy to.



>Apocalypto< said:


> update.
> 
> short SPX500 (CFD) ent 857.5 stop 870.1 limit 830.5
> 
> Good trading




This probably is not the right thread for this though. This is supposed to be regarding XAO analysis, not devoted to the theories of Machi, Wavepicker, Kinezikens, Libba, Skyhawk, or Stoner.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (27 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> No requirement to prove trades if they're real time.
> 
> We have your first one, based on this system we are not privy to.
> 
> ...





Kennas,

The s&p500 has a link to the xao so the information about it weakening is relevant to this thread. I have explained the method and I have explained my trade. 

So I think this post has the right to stay on the xao board as if the sp500 falls then there is a chance that could influence the Australian market tomorrow.

This is why i posted it in this thread. 

I you disagree with the method then that’s your opinion and go for it. You asked the questions and I have answered you.

I posting information on the sp500 and xjo has nothing to do with wavepicker the person. Its a coincidence it's his method that has produced the market direction idea.

Good trading no matter how you do it.


----------



## Sean K (27 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> I have explained the method and I have explained my trade.



No you haven't. You said this:



>Apocalypto< said:


> Based on the cycle bands i use which are written by Wavepicker.
> 
> The SP500 1 hour has reached a area of over bought on the top of the cycle range. Looking for a turn in trend, tonight most likey but May come in tomorrow. (waiting on confrimation)



So, what are these cycle bands? 

It's really pointless to mention this if you can't explain it.

Really, I'm not trying to pick a fight, or be negative towards this system, but all ANYONE here should expect is some analysis and justification behind a trading decision.

Or, maybe I missed the explanation amongst the other posts? Apologies if I did.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (27 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> Based on the cycle bands i use which are written by Wavepicker.
> 
> The SP500 1 hour has reached a area of over bought on the top of the cycle range. Looking for a turn in trend, tonight most likey but May come in tomorrow. (waiting on confrimation)
> 
> ...




The overbought means the price extrem. since it is at a over bought extrem I am sort the SP500 

What r the cycle bands? A. They're bands set on the price that work off a dominate cycle. They show extrems in the price. this is theory / systems devaloped by Hurst. high overbought extrem sell signal. low over sold extrem buy signal.

watch the spi futures things are coming off! 

I will post a chart later

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Everyones been expecting a decent break in this bullish run and we thought around the 3750 resistance would be it, but it's been pretty resiliant. I was certainly expecting a correction back to at least the 3400/500 support zone. But, it's holding up and respecting a small uptrend line which is almost sort of forming an ascending triangle. But there could be a tiny H&S in there as well. lol With 'sell in May, and go away' fast approaching, odds still must be on a breakdown.


----------



## Broadway (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yea, agreed Kennas.
The ES is walking its lower trendline, trying to cross it, and the bulls seem to be weakening.
A decent battle between bulls and bears though, standing only 10 ES points apart.
Could be a decent trendline break if it happens soon.


----------



## Sunder (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There are so many factors pointing to a downward leg, but none materialising in the Australian markets. Other markets seem to have started their leg down... I closed all my long positions yesterday and opened a smallish short on XJO using CFDs.

Watching the market spike this morning was pretty nerve wracking - especially after the late recovery yesterday. I've set my stop loss at 3800, (must close above and confirm direction the following day), but that's still a bigger loss than I really should have set. 

I'm personally looking at Chalkin money flow indicators for my primary analysis, combined with analyst expectations. Not very systematic, I know, but it seems to work fairly well on large indices.


----------



## clayton4115 (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i am still bearish on the xao, a breakout over 3800 would indicate another considerable leg up though!


----------



## Sean K (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



clayton4115 said:


> i am still bearish on the xao, a breakout over 3800 would indicate another considerable leg up though!



That is going to happen at some stage clayton. Just a question of when. A short pause and we break up, or way back down and sideways for some time? Each time we prop up against that level and fail the better the break up will be. Should be a great trading opportunity.


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> That is going to happen at some stage clayton. Just a question of when. A short pause and we break up, or way back down and sideways for some time? Each time we prop up against that level and fail the better the break up will be. Should be a great trading opportunity.




Yes. Who isn't waiting for a pull back - either to cover their shorts or to jump on.

I'm voting for stronger for longer.


----------



## clayton4115 (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

yes this bear rally has been quite resilient, maybe its overdue? i dunno, however if we break up 3800 and close above 3800 we could see 4000+ then!


----------



## jonojpsg (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yes. Who isn't waiting for a pull back - either to cover their shorts or to jump on.
> 
> I'm voting for stronger for longer.




Hmm, now where have I heard that phrase before??


----------



## waz (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My understanding that the magic number for the ASX200 was *3780*.
I think it was the January high close.
Which we almost hit today, from there it went straight down. Im sure that including today, it is the third time in the last week or so that the ASX has failed to break 3780.


----------



## GumbyLearner (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jonojpsg said:


> Hmm, now where have I heard that phrase before??




Owen Hegarty maybe?


----------



## Sean K (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GumbyLearner said:


> Owen Hegarty maybe?



No, that was stronger *forever*.

He and Twiggy need to get a bed together.


----------



## GumbyLearner (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> No, that was stronger *forever*.
> 
> He and Twiggy need to get a bed together.




LOL.


----------



## nomore4s (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Chart marked up with some possiblities.
> I'm probably favouring #2 at this stage, a pullback just far enough to shake out some sellers then up towards 4300, but the market will do what it wants.




All 3 options are still in play but option 1(refer chart from quoted post) is becoming a very real possibility now.



nomore4s said:


> Some very strong bearish divergence now with 3 attempts to go higher through resistance.




Divergence looks to have unwound as well. The fact we've held above 3500 for the moment is quite bullish, obviously need a break & hold above 3800 to confirm this.

Has anyone else had trouble finding any good short set ups lately? I have been looking but all I keep finding are potential longs.


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yes. Who isn't waiting for a pull back - either to cover their shorts or to jump on.
> 
> I'm voting for stronger for longer.




LOL. The Bears should be thanking me. my call was spot on - Start of a cascading sell off in the futs!!


----------



## sammy84 (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Has anyone else had trouble finding any good short set ups lately? I have been looking but all I keep finding are potential longs.




They have been slim pickings IMO. All continuations patterns to the long side, or base building for a breakout. A few shorts available for band trading but that is about all I have seen. 

Sort of forces your hand into being bullish.

Sammy


----------



## nunthewiser (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry Guys but in MY VIEW ........... BHP one bewt of a short setup currently ..... MY opinion only , u guys read YOUR charts how YOU see them .

i am currently short BHP and looking to add to position along the way

unhappy to be wrong  but will get over it and move on ifso


----------



## jonojpsg (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Sorry Guys but in MY VIEW ........... BHP one bewt of a short setup currently ..... MY opinion only , u guys read YOUR charts how YOU see them .
> 
> i am currently short BHP and looking to add to position along the way
> 
> unhappy to be wrong  but will get over it and move on ifso




Aren't you always short BHP though Nun?


----------



## nunthewiser (28 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jonojpsg said:


> Aren't you always short BHP though Nun?




Hell no , i trade this overpriced stock both ways actually , long , short who cares , great stock to trade


----------



## Sean K (29 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Everyones been expecting a decent break in this bullish run and we thought around the 3750 resistance would be it, but it's been pretty resiliant. I was certainly expecting a correction back to at least the 3400/500 support zone. But, it's holding up and respecting a small uptrend line which is almost sort of forming an ascending triangle. But there could be a tiny H&S in there as well. lol With 'sell in May, and go away' fast approaching, odds still must be on a breakdown.



Looks close to a decision point, although I think that support at 3625 will be the clincher. Will be the first lower low since the Mar 8 bottom. MACD looks ominous.


----------



## clayton4115 (30 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i have to agree, the momentum indicator is pointing downwards, me says, the further we go up in this bear market rally the harder we gonna come crashing down!


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes yes we are overbought.

The problem with overbought/oversold is that to get back to* "normal*" two things can happen,

We reverse and go in the other direction. 

Or

We Churn like we have for the last 3 weeks. dropping off the buying days from indicators that the sheeple use.

I may be wrong but most are looking for overbought to correct itself by dropping. IMHO it has actually done that by going nowhere.


----------



## clayton4115 (30 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i'm waiting for it to establish itself over 3800 before i will enter any long positions, then 4200 looks like the next resistance.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (30 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I may be wrong but most are looking for overbought to correct itself by dropping. IMHO it has actually done that by going nowhere.




I'm agreeing with that underlined part particularly. None of my shorts this week worked and I seriously doubt it has anything to do with being too early. None of them wanted to go down despite my fervent invective! :swear:

I'm thinking this rally is just getting second wind. There's green everywhere today.


----------



## nomore4s (30 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> We Churn like we have for the last 3 weeks. dropping off the buying days from indicators that the sheeple use.
> 
> I may be wrong but most are looking for overbought to correct itself by dropping. IMHO it has actually done that by going nowhere.




I agree, hence in my last post saying the divergence has mostly unwound and option 1 on my chart looking more and more like a possiblity now. But of course it could still break either way from here.

The most of the time markets tend to do what the majority least expects.


----------



## cutz (30 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



clayton4115 said:


> i have to agree, the momentum indicator is pointing downwards, me says, the further we go up in this bear market rally the harder we gonna come crashing down!






clayton4115 said:


> i'm waiting for it to establish itself over 3800 before i will enter any long positions, then 4200 looks like the next resistance.




So which one it’s gonna be, me personally expecting a decline (wishful thinking perhaps). That rebound off 3800 on the ASX200 looked pretty decisive with unusual heavy volume on all the stocks I’m watching, (mainly top 20) at the close.

How do you guys interpret that closing volume?


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> I agree, hence in my last post saying the divergence has mostly unwound and option 1 on my chart looking more and more like a possiblity now. But of course it could still break either way from here.
> 
> The most of the time markets tend to do what the majority least expects.




Yes I did see that nomores.

Been thinking this for a while but since I will soon be bring out a Astro-analysis tip sheet all my calls will be in hindsite :


----------



## Sunder (30 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> I'm agreeing with that underlined part particularly. None of my shorts this week worked and I seriously doubt it has anything to do with being too early. None of them wanted to go down despite my fervent invective! :swear:
> 
> I'm thinking this rally is just getting second wind. There's green everywhere today.




I'm only a couple points from stopping out my shorts too.

I would have thought to resolve the overbought position by "Staying still" would require a couple months, not just two weeks though?


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 April 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> I would have thought to resolve the overbought position by "Staying still" would require a couple months, not just two weeks though?




On the 27th of March we made a SPI high of 2720 something and a low of 3660 something. the same as yesterday. 1 month of going nowhere.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

keep your guesses boys............


the XAO has got 1 maybe 2 tops,sideways spikes, then its all over red rover , new lows all round give or take a darling or 3 

just my nunnerised opinion

pay no heed


----------



## Sunder (1 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Futures up even as late as last trade this morning... Getting ready to close out my shorts...

Bam, Market goes down, bounces off 3800 again. Some trillionaire with endless stock is selling it all off every time it gets to like 3780 or something. 

Is this a travel sideways, or is this just waiting for another leg down? It's killing me to find out...


----------



## grace (1 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> keep your guesses boys............
> 
> 
> the XAO has got 1 maybe 2 tops,sideways spikes, then its all over red rover , new lows all round give or take a darling or 3
> ...




nun, I sold off 25% of my holdings yesterday on my gut feeling.  I am back to 50% cash now (of the bit that I allocate to equities).  The other 50% is nearly all coal seam gas shares (+a few other energy stocks) so I'm happy to hold as I hate to miss out on any corporate action there.  Fingers crossed for a down leg.  It has been a nice bounce though....


----------



## Emjai (3 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

When I trade the markets, I look at the daily charts to see where the short term view is.

But, I always have to remind myself that the weekly chart is important and I need to keep a good eye on that because it gives you a good over view on what the market is doing.

You see with the chart attached, that we have a nice resistance where we are right now which is around the 3760 level.

Something I found also interesting, is that there is a nice trend line coming down, picking up the troughs in mid last year, which was a really nice support and now it's been a good resistance.

If the market can't push up through that strong resistance then I think we will at least see a pull back down to the 3,500 level which is the next support and resistance level, it's also the 38% retracement level.

This is just an option from guy who has been trading for over half a decade.


----------



## Sean K (3 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Emjai said:


> When I trade the markets, I look at the daily charts to see where the short term view is.
> 
> But, I always have to remind myself that the weekly chart is important and I need to keep a good eye on that because it gives you a good over view on what the market is doing.
> 
> ...



Just half a decade? lol

Looks like fair comment to me! 

Nice work.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (3 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kennas

WTF is that Avatar?


----------



## MRC & Co (3 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> Kennas
> 
> WTF is that Avatar?




ROLFMAO!  

Emjai, good post, simple and effective.


----------



## Sunder (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Reasonably strong break through resistance today. 

If it closes above 3800, and confirms tomorrow, I'm out. 

Anyone have a differing opinion? Is the leaked news from the US bank stress test too good? Should we wait for it to come out before closing out positions?

I guess that's bordering on asking for advice, but just wanted to know what otehr people are using to guide their decisions.


----------



## nunthewiser (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Reasonably strong break through resistance today.
> 
> If it closes above 3800, and confirms tomorrow, I'm out.
> 
> ...




PERSONALLY 

think we heading up a false break .......trading accordingly and looking to add to a cupla of positions

could be wrong ......... and will deal with it if it crosses that bridge


----------



## Sean K (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> ROLFMAO!
> 
> Emjai, good post, simple and effective.



I was taking the p!ss. Thought that was clear.


----------



## Muschu (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey, what about my 2.5 years of experience Kennas?  Quarter of a decade is mammoth! [Well it's amost that much.........]
And surely the market is overpriced now and must turn to the downside?  Can you at least do that for me please?
Rick






kennas said:


> Just half a decade? lol
> 
> Looks like fair comment to me!
> 
> Nice work.


----------



## Sean K (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Muschu said:


> Hey, what about my 2.5 years of experience Kennas?  Quarter of a decade is mammoth! [Well it's amost that much.........]
> And surely the market is overpriced now and must turn to the downside?  Can you at least do that for me please?
> Rick



It's been toppy for weeks! And now breaking up from a triangley thing and through that resistance zone. Day's not over, but WTF is going on?  Amazing bear rally, or confirmed bottom?


----------



## investorpaul (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> It's been toppy for weeks! And now breaking up from a triangley thing and through that resistance zone. Day's not over, but WTF is going on?  Amazing bear rally, or confirmed bottom?




We really need to wait until the stress test results on Thursday. I was expecting a quiet week until then, but it doesnt look like the case.

Even if this is the emergency of a new up trend, we must be due for a dip shortly.


----------



## moXJO (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well I wasn't expecting it to run this hard today. Are we in for good news or something??


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> Well I wasn't expecting it to run this hard today. Are we in for good news or something??




No it must be bad news. :


----------



## nunthewiser (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> No it must be bad news. :




blow off top?..seen the vols overall ?


----------



## outback (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"Triangley thing" I have a lot more jargoin to learn yet I can see.


----------



## Muschu (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> It's been toppy for weeks! And now breaking up from a triangley thing and through that resistance zone. Day's not over, but WTF is going on?  Amazing bear rally, or confirmed bottom?




I'm taking my bat and ball and going home.


----------



## moXJO (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Maybe some relevance to the ETS demise today. Conditions just got a little bit brighter.


----------



## grace (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Muschu said:


> I'm taking my bat and ball and going home.




Me too.  It was always going to go up after I sold a heap of stocks last week.

If those stress test results on the US banks are good, they are hiding something.  Just IMHO.


----------



## sammy84 (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> It's been toppy for weeks! And now breaking up from a triangley thing and through that resistance zone. Day's not over, but WTF is going on?  Amazing bear rally, or confirmed bottom?




If that chart was purely a simple stock it would be hard not to be bullish.


----------



## Rick_Hunter (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

one thing I dont get from this strong movement today is, how come the S&P500 hardly moved at all? still sitting on 0.3%+, hasnt this created a massive divergence now?


----------



## moXJO (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Maybe with all this bear influence from the news, we should just turn the chart upside down
(xjo not xao)


----------



## voyz (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

im so lost as to where the market is heading right now. dunno wether to long or short or jsut sit out.  but i guess im in the same boat as everyone else?


----------



## wonderrman (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



voyz said:


> im so lost as to where the market is heading right now. dunno wether to long or short or jsut sit out.  but i guess im in the same boat as everyone else?




Being short would seem dangerous due to the fact that the charts alone are quite bullish; except the fast stockastic indiactor which is approaching an overbought stage.

We must remember though that the stockmaret is not the economy, and is irrational, it is made up of the smartness and stupidness of the public, and as the past few months has shown these people can ignore the worst of economic news.

From my inexperienced trading eye it looks like we could push up to ~4200 - 4400 over the next few months, around to Oct/Nov we're we could get some pretty poor economic news which could send us back down. I have a few longs with tight stops, but am not entering any new trades until the stress test release on thursday, apparently this could be delayed though????? As you said though, it is very confusing times these markets are very crazy!

 wonder.


----------



## clayton4115 (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well i did say a few days back if th xao closes above 3800 i am in! therefore i am going to start buying as today was a huge day for the market, wasnt expecting a 2.8% rise!

i think i am more bullish now than bearish, im definately leaning towards the bull camp now.


----------



## Rick_Hunter (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My view is that the bulls are still completely in control of this rally atm, and we may be heading into the 4000-4100 range very soon (catalyst = US bank stress test = great results, no one in trouble?? I'm sure Obama government will put a positive spin on it somehow)

However, in the vvery short term, I believe we are overbought, especially at the end of today, which was very wild and overly optimistic IMO. For us to even keep at this level tomorrow, I think you'd need at least a 2-3% rally in the US markets tonight (whereby the US futures are saying otherwise for the entire day, thats why I was confused with such a massive divergence). If the US market stays flat tonight, we may very well see a short term retracement.

Anyway that's just my view, markets are always changing and weird!! thats why it's fun


----------



## ivant (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lol lets see how this all pans out. As i mentioned in my other post about the SPI200, I am still heavily short. And today i got absolutely hammered. 

But does anyone know the volume of the All Ords today? or the S&P200? the only reason i see for this is institutional selling, and God do I hope that someone can confirm this!


----------



## moXJO (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Strong day outside BB, couple more up days tues, wed?(xjo)






And if kennas triangle thingy plays out(up trend tri? close enough)+ possible old resistance points we are looking at playing with the 3980-4000(xjo) mark





Hard to tell with so much market manipulation by the insto's and US govt though.


Sorry for the xjo charts (and crappy quality)


----------



## nunthewiser (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> Lol lets see how this all pans out. As i mentioned in my other post about the SPI200, I am still heavily short. And today i got absolutely hammered.
> 
> But does anyone know the volume of the All Ords today? or the S&P200? the only reason i see for this is institutional selling, and God do I hope that someone can confirm this!




pointed at the vols earlier but got ignored because the poster obviously thinks he too refined to chat to me 

on the short subject . currently on bhp at 33.10


----------



## ivant (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> pointed at the vols earlier but got ignored because the poster obviously thinks he too refined to chat to me
> 
> on the short subject . currently on bhp at 33.10




Haha since when do I think i am too refined to chat with you?? I actually noticed that post. But I was after the physical numbers... I hope your analysis is right about the false break.. lol. As you may or may not know I have a really heavy position riding on it.. Do you know the numbers that i referred to by any chance?


----------



## clayton4115 (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ivant, when did you enter your short position? what points on the xao?


----------



## MS+Tradesim (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Given how Asia performed today, I'm surprised we didn't go higher. That's some serious movement.

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia


----------



## ivant (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



clayton4115 said:


> ivant, when did you enter your short position? what points on the xao?




About 100 points lower on the SPI200. My average entry is 3785ish


----------



## nunthewiser (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> Haha since when do I think i am too refined to chat with you?? I actually noticed that post. But I was after the physical numbers... I hope your analysis is right about the false break.. lol. As you may or may not know I have a really heavy position riding on it.. Do you know the numbers that i referred to by any chance?




LOL wasnt you i was referring too , your cool, your heads not stuck in ya rectum unlike poster it was inteneded for

sorry have no trade platforms or squat open at present .but recall seeing it around the 1.4 billion mark in the arvo re xjo


----------



## ivant (4 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL wasnt you i was referring too , your cool, your heads not stuck in ya rectum unlike poster it was inteneded for
> 
> sorry have no trade platforms or squat open at present .but recall seeing it around the 1.4 billion mark in the arvo re xjo




Lol, good good. I'm glad.  I though I snobbed you in some post. Although the rectum is actually a fun location for one's head  hahaha. 

Thanks for the number


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Rick_Hunter said:


> However, in the vvery short term, I believe we are overbought, especially at the end of today, which was very wild and overly optimistic IMO. For us to even keep at this level tomorrow, I think you'd need at least a 2-3% rally in the US markets tonight (*whereby the US futures are saying otherwise for the entire day, thats why I was confused with such a massive divergence*). If the US market stays flat tonight, we may very well see a short term retracement.
> 
> Anyway that's just my view, markets are always changing and weird!! thats why it's fun




Well there you go. Just another of many examples where Asia set the scene not lags it.


----------



## Sean K (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



outback said:


> "Triangley thing" I have a lot more jargoin to learn yet I can see.



I love triangely things!  Especially in a general uptrend hanging off a stick. Surprising how many are out in the woods at the moment.


----------



## nunthewiser (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> on the short subject . currently on bhp at 33.10




added to position at 34.45........ will add one more parcel at around 35 ish IF it gets there .......  stop set at 35.60

unhappy to be wrong


----------



## Largesse (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

anywhere i can find what economic news is due out in the states tonight?

we finally hit that top that everyone has been calling for the last 2 weeks?


----------



## prawn_86 (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Largesse said:


> we finally hit that top that everyone has been calling for the last 2 weeks?




I guess if we tested 3800 and it held that would be a big positive, old resistance turning into new support. But who knows what will happen, seems as though our rally yesterday was in anticipation of last nights DOW move.


----------



## Largesse (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prawn_86 said:


> I guess if we tested 3800 and it held that would be a big positive, old resistance turning into new support. But who knows what will happen, seems as though our rally yesterday was in anticipation of last nights DOW move.




yeh definitely appears so, yesterday was unrelenting buying all day, one of those days index traders love i guess. 

set the position, let it runnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn


----------



## nunthewiser (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Largesse said:


> anywhere i can find what economic news is due out in the states tonight?
> 
> ?




http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

has an economic calender on there giving dates and news due


----------



## Sean K (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Could yesterday be a false break through the 3750 zone? I guess we won't know until it's tested or we run away.... So, as usual, we could be heading up, down, or sideways.


----------



## nunthewiser (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> PERSONALLY
> 
> think we heading up a false break .......trading accordingly and looking to add to a cupla of positions
> 
> could be wrong ......... and will deal with it if it crosses that bridge





 agrees with kennas

unhappy to be wrong 

spose we will see shortly


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

here's one for the bears.

some interesting divergence from the big Caps, ANZ, CBA, NAB, TLS, WOW etc, they all made highs in early April.

Now you could look at that two ways it is either negative divergence OR if they get going we could really put on some serious points in the coming weeks.


----------



## Sean K (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> here's one for the bears.
> 
> some interesting divergence from the big Caps, ANZ, CBA, NAB, TLS, WOW etc, they all made highs in early April.
> 
> Now you could look at that two ways it is either negative divergence OR if they get going we could really put on some serious points in the coming weeks.



Yeah noticed that. What's the general play with market recovery? Is it large caps/blue chips first, then small caps? I thought that was the case. Probably wrong. If it is, then perhaps the larger caps diverging is a sign that we're due for a pause. I'm just guessing though. Maybe a dhukka or a rederob have some facts.


----------



## moXJO (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here’s something interesting, but potentially useless. (Please don't try and trade off it I was bored whilst looking through some charts)

The blue line(just slapped a line on to get the range) is from March 2008 rally that went to roughly halfway through may. That same blue line has been placed over March rally 2009. Now its only there as a rough guide to a big maybe. And a possible (big reach) indicator of when people finally get sick of buying. Anyway you notice both points hit the 200 day ema. All kind of lines up with everyone’s 4000-4100 prediction.

Once again sorry its xjo not xao


----------



## nunthewiser (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks re WOW

avaniceday


----------



## makingmoney (5 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

xao personal analysis is that with the current dow futures pointing slightly downward..expecting dow to open low...with contraction in the manufacting released...and all bad news with automakers...yet the news with gm auto sales 50% increase in asian market this term..seems to me alot of fancy covering up on how bad it is..everbody waiting for banking stress tests...but with the dow market sweeping the dust under the carpet..it seems to me they will brush up on the good news on the banks..and not pointing to the gloomy ones..im on cnn money.com now and even guru warren buffet is texting a speech on how banks wont fail....lmao...did he fail to neglect that he owns 7% in wells-fargo..and feels to me everbody is hoping or ramping up expectations..hmm rally i can see now...but my gut feeling is that the market will contract downwards again soon...you can only hide so much imformation...well thats my opinion...any one else with the same views? or if any im interested to see threads? 

ty   ....


----------



## CamKawa (6 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> xao personal analysis is that with the current dow futures pointing slightly downward..expecting dow to open low...with contraction in the manufacting released...and all bad news with automakers...yet the news with gm auto sales 50% increase in asian market this term..seems to me alot of fancy covering up on how bad it is..everbody waiting for banking stress tests...but with the dow market sweeping the dust under the carpet..it seems to me they will brush up on the good news on the banks..and not pointing to the gloomy ones..im on cnn money.com now and even guru warren buffet is texting a speech on how banks wont fail....lmao...did he fail to neglect that he owns 7% in wells-fargo..and feels to me everbody is hoping or ramping up expectations..hmm rally i can see now...but my gut feeling is that the market will contract downwards again soon...you can only hide so much imformation...well thats my opinion...any one else with the same views? or if any im interested to see threads?
> 
> ty ....



I'm with you. I can see the green shoots turning to burnt roots.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (6 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Been an interesting day so far. I remain neutral at this stage. Will wait to see which way we go over the next week or so.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (6 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Two downward breaks so far today. Will we go for three?


----------



## jonojpsg (6 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> Two downward breaks so far today. Will we go for three?




That's really interesting MS, I was just looking at the first chart thinking "doesn't the price/level usually drop out of a rising wedge when the trend has been down, and then hey presto, the second chart pops up and that's exactly what happened. 

If I had seen it beforehand I might have even had a crack at it


----------



## MRC & Co (6 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> Two downward breaks so far today. Will we go for three?




Nice little false break before the second drop-off!  Got some off that.........then............

Though it would break the low and got HAMMERED.


----------



## $20shoes (6 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Nice little false break before the second drop-off!  Got some off that.........then............
> 
> Though it would break the low and got HAMMERED.




Limping along after getting a little too eager. These candles, according to Bulkowski, are called "stiffys". All the lads get a little hot under the collar and need some release. The resulting rush often results in a softening of the action and could potentially indicate the start of some serious performance anxiety. 

nice how the run started with a hammer outside the bands and we could see a reversal from here.

I need to get me some more of that Bernanke-backed viagra


----------



## makingmoney (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

going on the dow this morning the bulls have the lead...so much confidence..lol...oh noes ..upcoming information is bad yet so much confidence..<---does it make sense..well im in and out gonna chop day trade ..im running with bulls 4 today..


----------



## clayton4115 (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ivant still holding his short positions?


----------



## nunthewiser (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

calls .....today as the end of this sucka rally 

i could always be wrong tho


----------



## Struzball (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> calls .....today as the end of this sucka rally
> 
> i could always be wrong tho




REJECT THE RECESSION!
REJECT THE RECESSION!

LOL the media really is pulling out all stops to keep this rally goin.

Went on longer than it should have, luckily I made a few bucks out of it.  But time to let it die, I doubt we'll revisit the low, maybe the November low.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Granted the day is not over and stress tests due tonight but I'm looking at the weekly as of now and this doesn't look like a top.  Looks more like it's just about to get started.


----------



## Sean K (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> Granted the day is not over and stress tests due tonight but I'm looking at the weekly as of now and this doesn't look like a top.  Looks more like it's just about to get started.



This is just unrelenting. Amazing run. I at least thought a drop back to 3750 to test the support, but it's just broken away. For now. Not long before a 1000 point gain. In 2 months!  This aint healthy imo.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hardly pays to be a pessimist or even a realist 

Stonger for long. take that bears. Jobs jobs Jobs


----------



## nunthewiser (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

has entered last parcel of BHP short at 35.5 .......... the bishop reckons im off my nut for fighting a trend but he aint got god on his side


----------



## Sean K (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> has entered last parcel of BHP short at 35.5 .......... the bishop reckons im off my nut for fighting a trend but he aint got god on his side



Cripes nunthe!  Not concerned it might have broken that $34 long term resistance line finally?


----------



## nunthewiser (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Cripes nunthe!  Not concerned it might have broken that $34 long term resistance line finally?




i personally got around 36 being the line to break on this expanding channel but i am dicing on the dodgy side on this trade . do have a stoploss plan intact and will use it , larger overall entry than normal so prepared to take a hit also

on hindsight i would not have entered my first parcel  currently sitting on 3460 average. may the force be with me


----------



## nomore4s (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> This is just unrelenting. Amazing run. I at least thought a drop back to 3750 to test the support, but it's just broken away. For now. Not long before a 1000 point gain. In 2 months!  This aint healthy imo.




I'm not too sure about that I was having a close look at the XAO chart and it's had some consolidation phases on the way up, imo it is actually stepping its way up nicely - will try to post a chart up tonight if I get time.



Trembling Hand said:


> take that bears. Jobs jobs Jobs




lol, I was thinking the same thing when I heard the jobs figures on the radio. First thought was the bears won't like that.


----------



## clayton4115 (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i like that weekly chart, it does look quite convincing we are on to something big here!


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> lol, I was thinking the same thing when I heard the jobs figures on the radio. First thought was the bears won't like that.




Of course they will be revised down next month.


----------



## nomore4s (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Of course they will be revised down next month.




lol, that was my second thought along with that's exactly how the bears will spin it too!:


----------



## $20shoes (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Longs rejecting 3950 on SP200 - You can add a little double top to my XJO 30 min chart below if it continues to fade out this arvo...perhaps some weight for tighter stops. 
Bulls have the weekly though..does look good there.


----------



## Gladman (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone know a good place to get XAO vs DJIA basic chart (10yr - up to date)? I've been looking for one but struggling to find one.

Also looking for good charts with 3-5 yr unemployment, money supply, interest rates and real GDP comparing AUS and US. If anyone can supply these, I would be incredibly grateful. I'm trying to do a comparison between the AUS and US economies during the build up to and during the current economic crisis to see how it has effected them and see what the different reactions have been but it is harder than it sounds to find comparison data because every website has either one or the other and often the charts will on different sites are very different, almost incomparable and hence useless for what I want.

Thanks in advance, Nathan


----------



## Rockon2 (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gladman said:


> Anyone know a good place to get XAO vs DJIA basic chart (10yr - up to date)? I've been looking for one but struggling to find one.
> 
> Also looking for good charts with 3-5 yr unemployment, money supply, interest rates and real GDP comparing AUS and US. If anyone can supply these, I would be incredibly grateful. I'm trying to do a comparison between the AUS and US economies during the build up to and during the current economic crisis to see how it has effected them and see what the different reactions have been but it is harder than it sounds to find comparison data because every website has either one or the other and often the charts will on different sites are very different, almost incomparable and hence useless for what I want.
> 
> Thanks in advance, Nathan





Try Incredible Charts    http://www.incrediblecharts.com/


----------



## seasprite (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gladman said:


> Anyone know a good place to get XAO vs DJIA basic chart (10yr - up to date)? I've been looking for one but struggling to find one.
> 
> 
> Thanks in advance, Nathan




http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/np...r+a+symbol&ma=1&maval=100&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=1024


----------



## RayG (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gladman said:


> Anyone know a good place to get XAO vs DJIA basic chart (10yr - up to date)? I've been looking for one but struggling to find one.
> <snip>
> Thanks in advance, Nathan




Try http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/  you might be able to get some of what you are looking for. The one below is 10 year DJIA versus XAO.

Ray


----------



## MS+Tradesim (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Personally I'm not one for over-analysing charts but just for the fun of it....

Weekly chart is self explanatory. We've had 5 weeks of consolidation with higher lows now broken upwards.

On the daily we are currently at a S/R level. If upward momentum continues 4000 is an obvious psychological level. 4300-ish is October's resistance. 4400-ish is possible target projection based on March closing lows to broken S/R at 3750-ish.

If we reverse, possibly 3500-ish.

Given the ridiculous rally we've had despite impossibly bad fundamentals, I'm slowly, slowly, starting to think that maybe March was the bottom.... for now. (Possibly undergo a large rally/rollover similar to Sep.01-Mar.03..?)


----------



## MrBurns (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Didn't the market rally a few times like this before reaching the bottom in the depression ?


----------



## MS+Tradesim (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Didn't the market rally a few times like this before reaching the bottom in the depression ?




But they didn't have the co-ordinated money injections now occurring via govts. and central banks. (I don't think?)  I suspect the plan is to simply inflate the problem away and let future generations unwind it. Or as is just as likely, USA will become the new 'cheap' labour market, burdened by indefeasible debt while China booms onto the stage as next financial superpower through unwinding their dependence on US dollars and indulging their own new middle-class consumer driven society.

 I'm not economically literate.

Ps. Not to say we won't have more downs and rallies, but....anything can happen. I'm still expecting at least one more leg down but this rally has taught me not to pre-empt it.


----------



## MRC & Co (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gladman said:


> Anyone know a good place to get XAO vs DJIA basic chart (10yr - up to date)? I've been looking for one but struggling to find one.
> 
> Also looking for good charts with 3-5 yr unemployment, money supply, interest rates and real GDP comparing AUS and US. If anyone can supply these, I would be incredibly grateful. I'm trying to do a comparison between the AUS and US economies during the build up to and during the current economic crisis to see how it has effected them and see what the different reactions have been but it is harder than it sounds to find comparison data because every website has either one or the other and often the charts will on different sites are very different, almost incomparable and hence useless for what I want.





Out of interest, are you doing a Uni assignment?


----------



## clayton4115 (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

all i can say is lets keep dancing while the music is playing! :dance:


----------



## makingmoney (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

looking at the xao tomorrow a possible up day..looking at the current dow futures..altho with the stress test and gm anouncing they burnt 10billion in last quarter could test the dow today..and if the dow is up in end of trade tonight im jumping on the bull train..lmao..:


----------



## nomore4s (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here is something I posted on my blog a while ago. It is an outlook I still feel has merit.


> Whether we have made the ultimate low or not I don't know. But I think we will see an extended period of sideways trading after the ultimate low along the lines of the attached chart. Please note I'm not comparing the 87 crash or economy to now just using the chart pattern as this is what I think the recovery will look like.
> 
> These are just possiblities to be proven or disproven by the markets and my outlook will no doubt change as the different possiblities play out


----------



## MR. (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> has entered last parcel of BHP short at 35.5 .......... the bishop reckons im off my nut for fighting a trend but he aint got god on his side




How can BHP now go up 5.3%?  Extended your stop didn’t you?  Hell nun,  seems almost like you’ve been set up.  ****, you should’ve  known better than to put your faith in god!  
The man deserves a badge!

It appears to me all the arm chair punters have come out in force with vivid memories of continued gains and they’re not going to be left behind.  
Are we surprised? 

Will BHP shares fall?   Yes,  along with greater falls from all other commodity  suppliers.  It’s not if.....


----------



## MR. (7 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Here is something I posted on my blog a while ago. It is an outlook I still feel has merit.




Congrats on becoming a mod there, always been helpful ......  

The range might even be higher than your 1400. Everyone has a computer at their finger tips now days news is traded quickly, the slot machines of the home.


----------



## nunthewiser (8 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> How can BHP now go up 5.3%?  Extended your stop didn’t you?  Hell nun,  seems almost like you’ve been set up.  ****, you should’ve  known better than to put your faith in god!
> The man deserves a badge!
> 
> It appears to me all the arm chair punters have come out in force with vivid memories of continued gains and they’re not going to be left behind.
> ...




yes extebded stop to 3620 as outer limit 3600 will probably see me out , i re-evaluated my chart for the widening band and willing to wear a larger loss because of it ....so be it........

i dont deserve any badges as this latest entry taught me a few manners about respecting strength and overjoyed buying and if i use the force next time i will be a perfect trader like others here 

re continued gains ........blessem i say

of course BHP shares will fall  i got divine intervention working for me

amen


----------



## nunthewiser (8 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

personally thinks nomore4s will be a good moderator  at least he got a sense of humour


----------



## MR. (8 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> yes extebded stop to 3620 as outer limit 3600 will probably see me out , i re-evaluated my chart for the widening band and willing to wear a larger loss because of it ....so be it........




Oops,...... and the US stumbles a bit. Not the financials surely!.......

Justa putin some polish on da badge for ya.......


----------



## nomore4s (8 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> Congrats on becoming a mod there, always been helpful ......






nunthewiser said:


> personally thinks nomore4s will be a good moderator  at least he got a sense of humour




Thanks. 

It's good someone appreciates my sense of humour because my other half doesn't: 



> The range might even be higher than your 1400. Everyone has a computer at their finger tips now days news is traded quickly, the slot machines of the home.




Maybe, but it I think it will be more around the 1000 point range if it does play out like that.


----------



## MrBurns (8 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No point getting too excited about this rally when you look at the chart for the last 2 years -


----------



## Nyden (8 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> No point getting too excited about this rally when you look at the chart for the last 2 years -




Yes, but eventually we *do* need to get excited Burns, perhaps this is the time, but perhaps it's not. I couldn't tell you that.

Trends are made to be broken, and clinging to a chart in the face of an enormous rally may _seem_ prudent, but when we do hit the bottom - you certainly don't want to be shorting that, or left behind for that matter.

Just remember, if trends didn't change - the market would have been at 20,000 right now 




MR. said:


> Will BHP shares fall?   Yes,  along with greater falls from all other commodity  suppliers.  It’s not if.....




You don't know that MR. Sorry, but you just don't. Folk were spouting that when BHP hit $20 too, just remember that. You're entitled to your opinion, but you can't state it as fact, is all.


----------



## MrBurns (8 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Yes, but eventually we *do* need to get excited Burns, perhaps this is the time, but perhaps it's not. I couldn't tell you that.




Exactly, no one can tell, but the chart shows nothing unusual in the long term - yet.


----------



## Nyden (8 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Exactly, no one can tell, but the chart shows nothing unusual in the long term - yet.




Maybe not, but I do believe the previous lows are simply long gone. Punters have been reminded of the good times, and I don't believe they'll make the mistake of overselling everything again.

I guess the goal is to get in on the market *before* the bottom becomes evident to the masses though, eh :


----------



## MR. (8 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Maybe, but it I think it will be more around the 1000 point range if it does play out like that.



 Assume it's not just the current expected range, just interested why? 1000?



Nyden said:


> You don't know that MR. Sorry, but you just don't. Folk were spouting that when BHP hit $20 too, just remember that. You're entitled to your opinion, but you can't state it as fact, is all.



Ofcoarse not, it's just my opinion it's too early. But BHP is not that $20- anymore.



Nyden said:


> Maybe not, but I do believe the previous lows are simply long gone. Punters have been reminded of the good times, and I don't believe they'll make the mistake of overselling everything again.



That may be right....... IMO ......... Was the market really oversold!


----------



## nomore4s (8 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> Assume it's not just the current expected range, just interested why? 1000?




No reason really, no more than a guess. The market tends to like round numbers or maybe it's just my bias for round numbers


----------



## tech/a (8 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well I feel he's pretty close.
But wouldnt rule out a lower low yet.

Other than that-------


----------



## nomore4s (9 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For anyone who actually bothers to read my posts: I've obviously been bullish for a little while now. I'm yet to see too much to change my outlook (for now anyway).

We have had option 1 play out from this chart I posted earlier in this thread. This was the most bullish outlook at the time and while I thought it was a chance I really didn't think it would play out like it has.

I would now like to see a push through 4000 and then some consolidation above 4000 before an attempt at minor resistance at 4300. I'm starting to think 4800 isn't out of the question.

A lot of charts have now broken out of very solid basing patterns and along with the current strength in the markets it has me thinking there aren't too many weak hands holding stocks atm. This means that there could be some sort of distribution phase if we are to retest the lows. This will probably happen when the majority become bullish again because atm most people are still bearish or sceptical about this rally. If we see a strong swing in sentiment but fail to push higher it will be a strong warning sign of a possible reversal.

If my other theory about a trading range is to play out, the range could be between 3500-4500/4800.


----------



## Trembling Hand (9 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nice work Nomore4s

Wait till the punters start jumping into the banks. The index could add some serious points in to time.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (9 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm with you Nomore4s. I think  4400 is plausible.


----------



## CamKawa (9 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL. I like the way you circled the bear trap, that was me. I loaded up on shorts and then got blown out of the water. I'm back in my cave now licking my wounds. I've no idea when I will come out again.


----------



## MRC & Co (9 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> LOL. I like the way you circled the bear trap, that was me. I loaded up on shorts and then got blown out of the water. I'm back in my cave now licking my wounds. I've no idea when I will come out again.




lol, could have turned into a bearish false break flipper!

Agree, 4400 is plausable after our firm hold of 3800s.


----------



## CamKawa (9 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The bullish posts here are interesting. If you have look at this chart, sentiment seems to be moving from bullish to bearish the more this rally progresses. Still, it might have some run in it yet. The DOW jumped 164 points overnight in the face of unemployment coming in at the higher end of the forecast range.







Source: http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/


----------



## nikemi (9 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i don't seem to have even a fraction of the experience that some of the participants on this forum have so i would appreciate anyone's insight on this - i look at the XAO chart and it looks like we are coming close to an important Fib number, as well as the 200 DMA as well as previous support. Is that considered signifcant?


----------



## MRC & Co (9 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> The bullish posts here are interesting. If you have look at this chart, sentiment seems to be moving from bullish to bearish the more this rally progresses. Still, it might have some run in it yet. The DOW jumped 164 points overnight in the face of unemployment coming in at the higher end of the forecast range.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yeh, I don't use these regular sentiment polls anymore, as I think most are aware these are contrarian indicators and hence, answer accordingly.

It's why I prefer to browse a forum, "do as I say, not as I do" comes to light a lot more then.  You see who is actually taking positions, not just who thinks what.  

Nikemi, I don't use MAs or Fib levels at all, so can't help on that one, sorry.


----------



## CamKawa (9 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, I don't use these regular sentiment polls anymore, as I think most are aware these are contrarian indicators and hence, answer accordingly.



Yes I agree with you, that's why I'm interpreting it literally. It was very bullish near the bottom. I'm being and contrarian contrarian or anti-contrarian... if that makes sense... maybe


----------



## nunthewiser (9 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

 we have already seen the high of this rally as pointed out by that moonbeam "nunthewiser "earlier  move along bulls


----------



## nunthewiser (9 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

oh bugga i thought i was in the "drunken rant"thread .......

as you were


----------



## Sean K (10 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nikemi said:


> i don't seem to have even a fraction of the experience that some of the participants on this forum have so i would appreciate anyone's insight on this - i look at the XAO chart and it looks like we are coming close to an important Fib number, as well as the 200 DMA as well as previous support. Is that considered signifcant?



I'd guess very significant. Need a good reason for a break here. 

So, we're probably going to push through hard.


----------



## nikemi (10 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'd guess very significant. Need a good reason for a break here.
> 
> So, we're probably going to push through hard.




Something else i find interesting though still to be proven important, is that from the high on 05/11/08 which was the high at the time to the high on 07.01.09 which was the high before the last leg down it is 63 days in total, from that high to the low on 10.03.09 it is 62 days in total, and from the low on 10.03.09 to tomorrow 11.05.09 it is 63 days. Coincidence or cycle? Would be interested to hear anyone else's views on that and if we might be coming close to a top even if it is temporary.


----------



## wonderrman (10 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I thought I would post this chart from Decision Point.com that shows an ascending wedge forming on the SP500.




The comments are here http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090508_aw.html.

It also applies to the all ords,




From the article, 



> Bottom Line: The ascending wedge pattern on the S&P 500 chart is a failry reliable signal that a short correction is due at any time. While it will make the bears happy at first, I don't think the correction will last more than a few days.




wonder.


----------



## nunthewiser (11 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nikemi said:


> Coincidence or cycle? Would be interested to hear anyone else's views on that and if we might be coming close to a top even if it is temporary.





scroll back i have my views be they right or wrong


----------



## nomore4s (11 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well after my bullish rant on the weekend today we had a somewhat bearish bar. Look at the high volume attempts to get through the resistance and the price action at the same time - yellow circles on the chart.

We are now seeing some selling into strength imo and I think we are really going to struggle to push through the resistance at 3950 ish. The question now is how severe will the next leg down be? The first level to be tested will be the green line at about 3730ish and then 3500-3600. A close under 3500 will see me bearish again.

I still think we will need to see some distribution if we are to retest the lows but who knows.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (12 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> We are now seeing some selling into strength imo and I think we are really going to struggle to push through the resistance at 3950 ish.




Yep. Above 4000 looks off the cards for the moment. How far down will we go? No idea. I'm not bearish about this yet though.


----------



## MRC & Co (12 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeh, that level holds the key here IMO.  

HUGE seller up there, this was talked about in Ivants SPI thread.


----------



## jonojpsg (12 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, that level holds the key here IMO.
> 
> HUGE seller up there, this was talked about in Ivants SPI thread.




Hey MRC, when you say HUGE seller up there, what exactly do you mean?  Do you mean there is someone selling the index at that level which keeps it from pushing through?  Doesn't the index move with the individual SPs of the companies that make it up, eg BHP, WBC, WOW, etc?  In which case, how can one huge seller stop the index from pushing through that level if the individual SPs are all moving up?  Hope this isn't a stupid question


----------



## MRC & Co (12 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jonojpsg said:


> Hey MRC, when you say HUGE seller up there, what exactly do you mean?  Do you mean there is someone selling the index at that level which keeps it from pushing through?  Doesn't the index move with the individual SPs of the companies that make it up, eg BHP, WBC, WOW, etc?  In which case, how can one huge seller stop the index from pushing through that level if the individual SPs are all moving up?  Hope this isn't a stupid question




Hey Jono,

Na, not a stupid question, a fair one.

Yes, when I mean a huge seller, I mean a huge seller of index futures (top 200 or SPI).

Which, as you say, is comprised by individual stocks, so if someone is buying individual stocks, then it will move higher.  However, they are always moving together with slight discrepancies, so if individual stock prices move too high (this means the cash index will also be high) and the futures index is kept down, then arbs will start buying futures and selling stocks.  Bringing it back into line at that level, without pushing through.  

But if individual stocks are bought up heavily, too heavily for the guys holding the index, then yes, it could break the level.


----------



## Sunder (13 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Futures down 92 points at the moment.

The next leg down starts now?


----------



## nunthewiser (13 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Futures down 92 points at the moment.
> 
> The next leg down starts now?




 started a few posts back m8


----------



## Sean K (14 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Futures down 92 points at the moment.
> 
> The next leg down starts now?



It's been called several times now. Started about 2 weeks ago, but it's just kept coming back. We'll see. Good luck Nun!


----------



## nunthewiser (14 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> It's been called several times now. Started about 2 weeks ago, but it's just kept coming back. We'll see. Good luck Nun!




Thankyou Kennas , and yes you are right it has been a mighty strong market of late and its gunna take more than this lil hiccup to kill that ...... on toes for a strong rebound . as well as shorts mentioned i also have a cupla longs in play also and keeping them normal trailing stops at the ready  , none have been hit as yet so no reason for battlestations as yet either


----------



## Sean K (14 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Great short if those blue lines fail.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (18 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey MRC,

Is this your kind of play? Double bottom. Potential break above the mid point high.


----------



## MRC & Co (18 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> Hey MRC,
> 
> Is this your kind of play? Double bottom. Potential break above the mid point high.




Not at the moment Tradeism, I would more likely be looking for a false break in this environment.


----------



## Sean K (25 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some random lines to consider.


----------



## prawn_86 (25 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Some random lines to consider.




3500 would suit me nicely for another round of buying


----------



## white_goodman (25 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Some random lines to consider.




hmm bit conflicting aint it... lets see what sort or price action appears around that 3700-3750 level


----------



## Largesse (31 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

what are the general feelings going forward from here on the XAO?

Another close above 3800 again, many have this as a decisive S/R point. Monday will likely open up again, whether or not it holds this is another question?

For me, it's a clear run through to 4000 is we can hold 3800, but looking nasty if we drop back under. 

Thoughts?


----------



## clayton4115 (31 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well we have been rangebound for a few weeks now, but if we pass 4000 then im definately bullish, i feel we need to pass 4000 before we can see any further upside, but that could probably take time so we may be rangebound for a while yet.


----------



## skyQuake (31 May 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

..or has anyone really considered that we could chop around rangebound for another month or so? Too many bulls and bears atm


----------



## Broadway (1 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Largesse said:


> what are the general feelings going forward from here on the XAO?
> 
> Another close above 3800 again, many have this as a decisive S/R point. Monday will likely open up again, whether or not it holds this is another question?
> 
> ...




I'm hopeing we hit 4000 this week.
I'm holding spi longs for a swing up.
Lots of volume in the asx20 last friday avo.
*prays to market Gods*
GM makes me nervous to be bullish lately.
I guess its all old news.


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> I'm hopeing we hit 4000 this week.
> I'm holding spi longs for a swing up.
> Lots of volume in the asx20 last friday avo.
> *prays to market Gods*
> ...




Broadway why is your large volume transactions always a positive. Why are they always a reason for getting long 

Could it not be an end of month market to print the bar/stats?


----------



## MS+Tradesim (1 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nice convincing move away from resistance at 3800-ish. See how we fare at 3950. Through that, and I'll be looking for a move anywhere up to 4400. Bounce down and we might be checking support at 3700-50 again.

See prior posts in the thread where I gave charts.


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> ..or has anyone really considered that we could chop around rangebound for another month or so? Too many bulls and bears atm




Its funny how the most recent past movements colour peoples views. 

If we run up for 5 years then we will run up next year (late 07 calls.)

If we drop 50% in a year then we are about to drop 20 % next month (early 09 calls).

If we go up 30% in two months then we are going down/up 30% next month (calls now)

Just goes to show the cliches are where the traps are,

_the trend ain't your friend anymore_


----------



## Broadway (1 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Broadway why is your large volume transactions always a positive. Why are they always a reason for getting long
> 
> Could it not be an end of month market to print the bar/stats?




Past months haven't shown this much volume at 1610. It was triple normal across the entire asx20 on friday avo. Past volume like this has worked for me on a long trade. It seems like too much volume across too many charts to be shorts. So I figure I just have to follow when the pros are buying. Plus I dont think there would be such massive shorting of stocks while we are at the bottom of a range.

As well as serious volume had been entering asia, europe and US charts on dips all last week.

Todays trend was the result of accumulation that had been building up all last week.

The start of the accumulation happened with the banks last Monday.

I can give you charts if you want me to illustrate.

btw, we may not get to 4000 this week, theres some volume on peaks in europe that im seeing.


----------



## theasxgorilla (1 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Posted this in another thread... it's worth noting IMO... XAO first daily close about 200 day MA in, oh, about 18 months.  

Lots of other technical "watch" points potentially about to unfold.  An up-bar this week gives us a confirmed technical higher low.

The 200 day SMA is flat, but if we approach and break recent highs at 3940 it may also turn up again for the first time in about 18 months.


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Past months haven't shown this much volume at 1610. It was triple normal across the entire asx20 on friday avo. Past volume like this has worked for me on a long trade. It seems like too much volume across too many charts to be shorts. So I figure I just have to follow when the pros are buying. Plus I dont think there would be such massive shorting of stocks while we are at the bottom of a range.
> 
> As well as serious volume had been entering asia, europe and US charts on dips all last week.
> 
> ...




So in your mind every big buy has no opposite but equal big sell 

LOL yes did see it and figured it was end of month rebalancing but as we now know that big 4:10 volume was index reweighting.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

people will only see what they want to ....... i too was going to point out E.O.M shifting but figured it wouldnt matter anyways


----------



## Sean K (2 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

EW'ers, when does the running flat W4 analysis be proved incorrect?


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> EW'ers, when does the running flat W4 analysis be proved incorrect?




No no. Just one more day up then its all over.... well thats been the answer for 2 months so I guess its still the answer :frosty:


----------



## nunthewiser (2 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

time to go short again 

that is a personal opinion and trading accordingly 

no advice, just where im at 

nice low % loss stop points on numerous stocks on SHORT positions not just individual stocks either . XAO /XJO looking same ..

take it with a grain of salt as im a bogan and i live in WA .what would i know


----------



## RayG (2 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ok, so it's not strictly XAO analysis but given that we are close coupled to the S&P, this analysis is interesting.  

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aW6PiO4Yzdz8&refer=home


----------



## Naked shorts (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think that all these technical indicators flying off will get all the new people to technical analysis (lots of people (dumb people)) buying because they would be under the impression that technical analysis can predict the market. I think this will cause further strength... but the momentum will wear off because the people with experience wont buy into it to keep it going.


----------



## GumbyLearner (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> I think that all these technical indicators flying off will get all the new people to technical analysis (lots of people (dumb people)) buying because they would be under the impression that technical analysis can predict the market. I think this will cause further strength... but the momentum will wear off because the people with experience wont buy into it to keep it going.




I'm buying, I'm buying....

Well, I'm not buying but looking for the falsified exuberance!

Why not?


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> I think that all these technical indicators flying off will get all the new people to technical analysis (lots of people (dumb people)) buying because they would be under the impression that technical analysis can predict the market. I think this will cause further strength... but the momentum will wear off because the people with experience wont buy into it to keep it going.




I thought most indicators have been showing over bought for a month or so. Would that mean the dumb people would of sold out/ shorted?


----------



## Naked shorts (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I thought most indicators have been showing over bought for a month or so. Would that mean the dumb people would of sold out/ shorted?




RSI isnt overbought, coppock indicator has turned around, 5-year chart *looks* like the worst is over, MACD isn't overbought (it has also just crossed up past its EMA, a buy signal), 25MA has crossed over 50MA and they are both about to cross 200MA.

I'll give it that the index is hitting upper bollinger band, and stochastic is indicating over bought. 

But no, i don't think said dumb people wont be shorting. I did read another post of yours saying that you saw some heavy resistance up there, so considering this, if it holds up, i think we will continue to see sideways action as skyquake mentioned (with the dumbies buying and smarties selling). 

Im bearish for the next two or so days (would like to see some profit taking at this resistance), bullish for a few weeks and bearish for a fair few months.


----------



## nunthewiser (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

for what its worth , ive been stopped out of 2 positions today .short .still in BHP tho


----------



## Naked shorts (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If i might add, we are also no technically in a recession anymore either (as TH has mentioned in another thread), if thats not bullish i don't know what is.


----------



## nunthewiser (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> If i might add, we are also no technically in a recession anymore either (as TH has mentioned in another thread), if thats not bullish i don't know what is.





LOL what happens when the stimulas figures are no longer counted 

bless them lil number manipulating factors


----------



## makingmoney (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hmm resistance has 2 be 4000 on the xao...with ppl still buying overpriced stocks and false leads from the dow..i thinking the next few days will shape a new resistance band of 3700-4000 (xao) my personal thts is that seiing the dow do 4 consective days in a row theres gonna be at least 2 days of downs..but given america is the king of propaganda and turning out bad news into good news..e.g gm...i think its gotta retract sooner than l8tr ....anyway gotta love nab today with ex-divid on the 4th..im been cutting the market 3 times 2day..gotta love how ppl buy up the day before ex-divid day..


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> EW'ers, when does the running flat W4 analysis be proved incorrect?




I wonder??


----------



## nunthewiser (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

out of all short positions . i may be silly but i aint stupid ...... cant stop a train with my forehead ........


----------



## makingmoney (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> out of all short positions . i may be silly but i aint stupid ...... cant stop a train with my forehead ........



^^^^^AGREED...alot of bulls..but ppl buying overbought stock..i dk..but the steam might run..out soon...c what the dow does..a fifth consective day...i highly doubt it..but thats my thts..im running shorts..on the xao tomorrow..


----------



## nunthewiser (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> ^^^^^AGREED...alot of bulls..but ppl buying overbought stock..i dk..but the steam might run..out soon...c what the dow does..a fifth consective day...i highly doubt it..but thats my thts..im running shorts..on the xao tomorrow..




happy to jump back in on a moments notice just rather nurse my longs at present rather than enter ANYTHING today . we on a edge now .... could be a strong move either way and im not content to get caught on any gaps if i pick the wrong direction


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nun when ya gonna admit it.

stronger for longer


----------



## outback (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> ^^^^^AGREED...alot of bulls..but ppl buying overbought stock..i dk..but the steam might run..out soon...c what the dow does..a fifth consective day...i highly doubt it..but thats my thts..im running shorts..on the xao tomorrow..




Not making as much sense as you might if you spoke English.


----------



## RayG (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> I think that all these technical indicators flying off will get all the new people to technical analysis (lots of people (dumb people)) buying because they would be under the impression that technical analysis can predict the market. I think this will cause further strength... but the momentum will wear off because the people with experience wont buy into it to keep it going.




Huh?  are you suggesting that the dumb people are those who are influenced by TA..

I mistakenly thought that was the subject of this thread 

Regards
Ray


----------



## nunthewiser (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Nun when ya gonna admit it.
> 
> stronger for longer






hahahahahah ok ..............


stronger for longer

until it falls into a burning heap


----------



## Naked shorts (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> Huh?  are you suggesting that the dumb people are those who are influenced by TA..




No, I'm saying that all the new people to technical analysis might think that it is a tool that can correctly and accurately predict market movements. That they might think the more technical indicators showing positive signs means the more its going to go up...you know, the things you do when you first get into technical analysis (like adding 50 trillion indicators to your charts).


----------



## nunthewiser (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

actually was rather tempted to re-enter a few shorts today including the XJO at 4000 .but like i said before , trying to stop a freight train with ones forehead is probably not the smartest idea ... good luck to those currently shorting but me myself may wait until i spot some weakness and cracks appearing ......... currently a few of my longs are looking mighty funky and i think i will just continue to hold and cherish them until such time as my trailing stops start getting attacked 


stronger for longer as that other fella keeps saying maybe the motto for now 

wouldnt actually surprise me to wake up to a mighty red day tommorow but hey would hate to be holding shorts if we get another decent green night 

gunna be gap ups all over the shop on the back of breaking 4000


----------



## makingmoney (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> can we have a drug and alcohol testing unit to last post please




i will fail with that test..but was replying to outback.? he said he couldnt understand my last post...what couldnt he understand with my post?


----------



## nunthewiser (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> i will fail with that test..but was replying to outback.? he said he couldnt understand my last post...what couldnt he understand with my post?




LOL i deleted that post as was mainly being a smartarse .....

as you were , that will be a swab test and $300 for costs 

thankyou


----------



## makingmoney (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

anyway i didnt come on this site to argue with people anyway...atm its looking as i said dow is currently 31points down on futures..ftse 100 89points down atm on futures..hmmm excellent smithers my shorts .. 2 morror on the xao  is looking good..


----------



## Real1ty (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> anyway i didnt come on this site to argue with people anyway...atm its looking as i said dow is currently 31points down on futures..ftse 100 89points down atm on futures..hmmm excellent smithers my shorts .. 2 morror on the xao  is looking good..




You might be right but there is a long way to go on the US market tonight before you can start crowing.

Good luck, you might need it...


----------



## nunthewiser (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> ..atm its looking as i said dow is currently 31points down on futures..ftse 100 89points down atm on futures..hmmm excellent smithers my shorts .. 2 morror on the xao  is looking good..





what are you actually "short " on . indicies or individual stocks ?

sorry if i missed any entrys posted , just intrested .


----------



## makingmoney (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> You might be right but there is a long way to go on the US market tonight before you can start crowing.
> 
> Good luck, you might need it...




maybe...but with this morning news on american papers saying job cut should had shown a better reaction..and also with only 1hr and 30mins to go before the dow opens ...its a good indication,that the dow will head low with there futures now @ 41 its moving quickly..my post was orginally @ 3pm today..so it was a good call)


----------



## makingmoney (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

just the indices...nothing to bold..i dont play cfd or options to much..i got burnt to hard on rio..on  a cfd when it was $60 one day and $40 the next..i usally just by stock in large volume and using lvr from bt lending to extend it like a cfd..but not as much risk..only problem u can only gain from a up not a short


----------



## nomore4s (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> maybe...but with this morning news on american papers saying job cut should had shown a better reaction..and also with only 1hr and 30mins to go before the dow opens ...its a good indication,that the dow will head low with there futures now @ 41 its moving quickly..my post was orginally @ 3pm today..so it was a good call)




It is still a long way till the close and -41 is hardly earth shattering. The US could do anything by the close - Down 100+ points or UP 100+ points or anything in between. At best the futures only point to the open.

Also it remains to be seen what effect a 100+ down day will have on our market, with the current strength it could be minimal or it could mean 100+ down day for us as well.


----------



## makingmoney (3 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> It is still a long way till the close and -41 is hardly earth shattering. The US could do anything by the close - Down 100+ points or UP 100+ points or anything in between. At best the futures only point to the open.
> 
> Also it remains to be seen what effect a 100+ down day will have on our market, with the current strength it could be minimal or it could mean 100+ down day for us as well.




hmmm 61 points down and climbing...^^^ u saying what effect the dow has on our market if any +100 or down...hmm do u day trade.....we mirror image the dow..if it has a bad day so do we..."if america sneezes the world catchs a cold" end quote..not saying we following it 100% but i say 95% chance if the dow is down...we follow the next day some what the same..


----------



## makingmoney (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well thats me 4 2nite the dow has opened atm at 10am in america its 100points down..) meh im happy...


----------



## Dr_Colossus (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dont be surprised if the DOW closes in positive territory. 
Currently down 103.
Too early to call yet.


----------



## Largesse (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

S & P to hold 930?

carnnnnnnnnnnnn


----------



## sammy84 (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> hmmm 61 points down and climbing...^^^ u saying what effect the dow has on our market if any +100 or down...hmm do u day trade.....we mirror image the dow..if it has a bad day so do we..."if america sneezes the world catchs a cold" end quote..not saying we following it 100% but i say 95% chance if the dow is down...we follow the next day some what the same..




Look back at past figures and you will be actually be surprised how little we mirror the dow. If only it was so easy to trade on that theory. The XAO is rather forward looking IMO, and often is the first market to signal another move is on the way.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> hmmm 61 points down and climbing...^^^ u saying what effect the dow has on our market if any +100 or down...hmm do u day trade.....we mirror image the dow..if it has a bad day so do we..."if america sneezes the world catchs a cold" end quote..not saying we following it 100% but i say 95% chance if the dow is down...we follow the next day some what the same..




Nope, you are wrong. 95%!!


----------



## nomore4s (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Nope, you are wrong. 95%!!




lol, I couldn't be bothered arguing the point.

Down a measley 65 odd points. The bears should probably take more notice of the fact gold, oil & copper all came down, this could potentially have more effect on our market imo.


----------



## Sean K (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Down a measley 65 odd points. The bears should probably take more notice of the fact gold, oil & copper all came down, this could potentially have more effect on our market imo.



Yeah, but I wonder what Australia being out of (official) recession means. It's international news. Or, news has nothing to do with how the market moves.


----------



## makingmoney (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Look back at past figures and you will be actually be surprised how little we mirror the dow. If only it was so easy to trade on that theory. The XAO is rather forward looking IMO, and often is the first market to signal another move is on the way.




like i said i plucked 95% as a number..no fact..but u say we dont follow international markets like the dow or ftse 100..hmm well rio on bhp where both down 4% on the ftse 100 last night..ur reakon rio or bhp well have gains today....hmm i think not...as with the dow being down..if think that well help the xao...hmm four past consec gains on the xao...hmm like i said yesterday at 3.00pm post i cant see xao doing no ups today..but thats just me..(a every day trader)


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yeah, but I wonder what Australia being out of (official) recession means. It's international news. Or, news has nothing to do with how the market moves.




But its yesterdays news. That only matters to people like makingmoney and the talking heads. They worry about what the dow did last night. What is in the papers this morning from yesterday.

Whats gonna happen tomorrow is the question.


----------



## Real1ty (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well done makingmoney on your call, you were right.

The above replies have summed up my thoughts.


----------



## korrupt_1 (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Whats gonna happen tomorrow is the question.




the sun will rise...
i will take my morning ****...
... and fade what the DOW does the night before


----------



## makingmoney (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well im not here to argue with anyone just trying to give other traders get the inside edge on the xao and help with more thts..the more information u guys have at hand the better traders we can all be ,either u follow techinical data or information or both..i follow both..but seems i might end posting my thts..seems u get sledged..well guys gl with trading today ciao 4 now


----------



## nunthewiser (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> well im not here to argue with anyone just trying to give other traders get the inside edge on the xao and help with more thts..the more information u guys have at hand the better traders we can all be ,either u follow techinical data or information or both..i follow both..but seems i might end posting my thts..seems u get sledged..well guys gl with trading today ciao 4 now





um the trick is ............... dont be so sensitive about things 

post your thoughts and grin when your right


----------



## Sean K (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My potential H&S didn't work out with that bar in the green circle pushing through, and then obviously cracking the previous high at 3930/40 ish, dished it completely. 

If that level (now weak support) doesn't hold, then need those other blue lines to play the game, or need to revise this nice bear bounce. 



I suppose the EW'ers can re-lable yesterday with another C, or 2 ....


----------



## Porper (4 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> EW'ers, when does the running flat W4 analysis be proved incorrect?





There is no wonder EW'ers have stopped posting with the constant inuendo's going on.

Anyway, for those genuinely interested 3998.50 is the magic figure, so very close to yesterdays high would be the typical retracement area for a running or expanded flat correction wave B. The US markets have a way to go though, with the S&P500 being able to get to 994.97 before seriously questioning the wave count.

As I have said numerous times, if you were to just use E.wave as a stand alone system in trading set ups you will lose money in my opinion.


----------



## drsmith (5 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It will be interesting to see the short term reaction to this.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25588971-643,00.html


----------



## Largesse (5 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

what news just hit the american markets? 2am Melbourne time


----------



## Sean K (5 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Porper said:


> There is no wonder EW'ers have stopped posting with the constant inuendo's going on.



This was a genuine question Porper. Geesh

Seems asking an EW question here is like lighting a stick of dynamite.


----------



## Naked shorts (5 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Largesse said:


> what news just hit the american markets? 2am Melbourne time




I had a look, seems like nothing came out around that time, maybe a stop loss run? Thats the time when liquidity drops off a bit because its the end of the working day for people in the UK.


----------



## Sean K (16 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Having a nice healthy sell off today. We need more of these on a smaller scale, more often. Just hate the constant run one way or the other. Hopefully we get to shake the tree and lose some pedestrains. All this straight up and down stuff is just crap.

I'm looking to an overlapping criss crossy type of movement down into the green circle and some stabilisation for this to be a friendly correction. Hopefully not just massive red candles one after the other...eeeek.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.

It provides useful guidance for long term traders as to possible points at which to attempt to predict the top of a bull trend and in the present case, the bottom of a bear.

There are too many hopeful festian fundamentalists posting hopeful scenarios of a return to an everlasting bull market.

It is not going to happen, and there is much more money to be lost on the long side.

Present fundamental economic answers seem predicated on socialist principles of bailing out the undeserving and getting the future generations to pay the debt. These attempts will fail.

Charts never lie, and I would suggest on EW principles a low of 2400 for the XAO, possibly at the end of the year, with then a sideways move for 1 or 2 years.

gg


----------



## explod (17 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> There are too many hopeful festian fundamentalists posting hopeful scenarios of a return to an everlasting bull market.
> 
> It is not going to happen, and there is much more money to be lost on the long side.
> 
> ...




Whew and Amen to that.     And the Dow will plummet to 1500 and like wonderful sheep we will follow right behind, fundamentals or not.  But fundamentals will rule the day at the end of it.   Till we all learn to pay our way in true value behind our toil, we will not climb back out of it.   

Well said Garpal


----------



## saiter (17 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.
> 
> It provides useful guidance for long term traders as to possible points at which to attempt to predict the top of a bull trend and in the present case, the bottom of a bear.
> 
> ...




Nice and simple count. I agree with it.


----------



## Sean K (17 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.



Huh? Like where?


----------



## GumbyLearner (17 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Targeted how so?

Are you into conspiracy theories?


----------



## Cartman (18 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.




no it hasnt GG ----- but it can be arranged :  

best get back to my cave methinks  :aliena:


----------



## Sean K (23 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Arriving at a make or break point imo.

If this support level holds above the 200d ma, then the bear bounce still has some legs. Massive divergence on the MACD and more than obviously trending lower. Yes, post price movement, but look bloody ugly. A very slightly lower high adding to the bearish view. Could the 200d ma provide some support to the 3700 ish support line?

Obviously a non paid for chart (sorry Beamstas), so someone elses paid for one might look different.


----------



## Nero64 (23 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Charts never lie, and I would suggest on EW principles a low of 2400 for the XAO, possibly at the end of the year, with then a sideways move for 1 or 2 years.




Yes charts don't lie (unless you have the wrong data feed) but humans beliefs and forecasting can be taken as lies. 

On a more encouraging note. If what you say is true it will give me a chance to start saving up for the big low. I wonder if they will start closing markets if we get that low.


----------



## gfresh (23 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It took 18 months to fall from ~6800 to ~3100 or around 55% 

Now we're going to fall from 4000 to 2400 (-40%) in 6 months?


----------



## tech/a (23 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Well I feel he's pretty close.
> But wouldnt rule out a lower low yet.
> 
> Other than that-------




Pretty well to "The Book"
*But you've got to be impressed with this!*


----------



## drsmith (23 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Charts never lie, and I would suggest on EW principles a low of 2400 for the XAO, possibly at the end of the year, with then a sideways move for 1 or 2 years.
> 
> gg



With regard to the scaling on that chart, should it be linear (as it is) or non-linear in the form of equal distances in the vertical scale between 1000, 2000, 4000, 8000 etc ?

This would obviously impact on how far your analysis suggests the market would fall. 1800 points is about 26% of 7000. A 26% fall from around 4000 would give a target just below 3000.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (23 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Cartman said:


> no it hasnt GG ----- but it can be arranged :
> 
> 
> best get back to my cave methinks  :aliena:





Us EW believers are in to conspiracy, if it doesn't exist we will invent it ! 

gg



kennas said:


> Arriving at a make or break point imo.
> 
> If this support level holds above the 200d ma, then the bear bounce still has some legs. Massive divergence on the MACD and more than obviously trending lower. Yes, post price movement, but look bloody ugly. A very slightly lower high adding to the bearish view. Could the 200d ma provide some support to the 3700 ish support line?
> 
> Obviously a non paid for chart (sorry Beamstas), so someone elses paid for one might look different.




Hope over reality mate see attached chart




Nero64 said:


> Yes charts don't lie (unless you have the wrong data feed) but humans beliefs and forecasting can be taken as lies.
> 
> On a more encouraging note. If what you say is true it will give me a chance to start saving up for the big low. I wonder if they will start closing markets if we get that low.




Cash is king, always will be, gives you more leverage.

gg



gfresh said:


> It took 18 months to fall from ~6800 to ~3100 or around 55%
> 
> Now we're going to fall from 4000 to 2400 (-40%) in 6 months?




So!



drsmith said:


> With regard to the scaling on that chart, should it be linear (as it is) or non-linear in the form of equal distances in the vertical scale between 1000, 2000, 4000, 8000 etc ?
> 
> This would obviously impact on how far your analysis suggests the market would fall. 1800 points is about 26% of 7000. A 26% fall from around 4000 would give a target just below 3000.




The old Fibmeister always went on linear data. Linear.

Its falling

A chart


----------



## drsmith (23 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> The old Fibmeister always went on linear data. Linear.
> 
> Its falling
> 
> A chart



Linear is a reasonable approximation for movements which are small relative to the index/individual price value but for movements which represent a larger portion of the index value ??

Consider what would happen under your scenario if the first drop was, say 30% of it's peak value and the second was, say 50%.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (23 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



drsmith said:


> Linear is a reasonable approximation for movements which are small relative to the index/individual price value but for movements which represent a larger portion of the index value ??
> 
> Consider what would happen under your scenario if the first drop was, say 30% of it's peak value and the second was, say 50%.




You and I know that, but the average punter in any market, tomatoes, sugar, oil goes on the linear data.

I go to my local veg/ vegan.crazies market on sunadays whenever I find it difficult to work out charts. I watch the ebb and flow of prices. 

It is linear.

Folk trade linear.

gg


----------



## skyQuake (23 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> You and I know that, but the average punter in any market, tomatoes, sugar, oil goes on the linear data.
> 
> I go to my local veg/ vegan.crazies market on sunadays whenever I find it difficult to work out charts. I watch the ebb and flow of prices.
> 
> ...




But they don't account for a large slice of the mkt do they? Funds and larger guys with better knowledge and access would be using semi-log charts.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> But they don't account for a large slice of the mkt do they? Funds and larger guys with better knowledge and access would be using semi-log charts.




Financial markets are your vegan.crazies veggie markets writ large. Its all buying and selling. Tomatoes and beans, BHP and RIO.

gg


----------



## RayG (24 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Cash is king, always will be, gives you more leverage.




So, how much of a dip is required before you put some of that cash to work?  3500?  lower....

Regards
Ray

BTW, I like the avatar, but, you do know what Al Capone was nailed for don't you?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> So, how much of a dip is required before you put some of that cash to work?  3500?  lower....
> 
> Regards
> Ray
> ...




2400

Nice round number.

See my chart above 1 week ago.

I pays me taxes. I see it as an investment in Australia, although I sometimes doubt the wisdom of those who spend it. 

I can sympathise with Alphonse's reluctance.

gg

gg


----------



## Sean K (24 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Hope over reality mate see attached chart



Perception is reality.

Yours does look neater though.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Perception is reality.
> 
> Yours does look neater though.




Agree it is perception.

My 3 is bigger than yours however.

Not that I like to brag about the size of my 3.

gg


----------



## tech/a (24 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nasdaq
XAO
lining up-- analysis pretty well the same.
Again I dont see much changing from the analysis I have been posting for sometime.

Its weak.
Look with skepticism at long plays and be actively involved in low risk short plays.

You should work on your basic Elliott Guys!!
*Both charts WEEKLY*
Top chart QQQQ
Bottom ORDS

Click to expand


----------



## Sean K (24 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> You should work on your basic Elliott Guys!!
> *Both charts WEEKLY*



The daily didn't represent my perception enough.


----------



## Chris45 (24 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> The daily didn't represent my perception enough.




The weekly outranks the daily on the big picture.


----------



## gfresh (26 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting juncture... if XAO can break 3950 the bear case is looking shaky for now.. (although always possibility of 4060 double-top). 

However, if we turn back down again, this could be the end of the first-half rally..


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (26 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

One basic element of TA is timing.

Coming up to the end of June in a bear market with fundos topping and tailing their books is not the time to be waiting for a breakout upwards in the XAO in July.

Its Show Day on Monday in Townsville, so I won't be able to trade, I'll be at the Show, which may be safest place to be next week.

gg


----------



## nomore4s (27 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For those that use divergence in their trading - this chart might be of interest.

In yellow I have marked divergences on the the minor higher highs and as you can see they have played out quite well in the last few months but if you have a look at the white lines the major highs are not yet showing signs of divergence. The uptrend since March remains intact for the moment.
The red box is a support/resistance zone.

Can we push up through 4100 now? Will have to wait and see.

I'm still of the opinion that if we are to see the lows re-tested we will see some distribution first. My current opinion is that we won't see 3100 tested for a decent period of time but that could change of course.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 June 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't know about the XAO but the XJO chart on the side of the ASF main page looks very toppy for a days trading.

When is the end of the year? Parachutes anyone?

I'm in holiday mode, so will look at the final fallout after the Darwin Show.


gg


----------



## Sean K (1 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just polishing up the crystal ball and I see a another potential H&S forming up.


----------



## gfresh (1 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nice one.. further to your chart Kennas.. possible target on break of neckline of 3500?? Which would fit nicely with the support level.

MACD indicating weakness as well.


----------



## Naked shorts (1 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Just polishing up the crystal ball and I see a another potential H&S forming up.




Dont know how you work without volume.


----------



## sammy84 (1 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Head and Shoulders patterns can also act as a good continuation pattern to the upside. Could be bullish or bearish from here


----------



## MRC & Co (1 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Head and Shoulders patterns can also act as a good continuation pattern to the upside. Could be bullish or bearish from here




Yes, all we have done is put in another higher low, but also a lower high.  Could go anywhere from here, not really in a buying or selling region.  Except now is a good place to sell if you are looking for a H&S to play out, as the stop would be much tighter.


----------



## gfresh (3 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Naked Shorts pointed out the volume indicators.. This is the SP500 but the volume seems quite textbook.. Looking very bearish after last night.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks all poster and Uncle Festivus.

The xao is as near you will get to a classical Head and Shoulders pattern.

I would guess on previous analysis that the xao will tank.

There is a small possibility that the right shoulder is an ascending triangle, and if it breaks out and retraces to 3950 and then takes off again I'd be bullish.

Sense over sentiment wins out though.

This is a very bearish pattern.

Sell.

gg


----------



## Gordon Gekko (3 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So what will be the trigger or black swan event that sends this sucker down in the final capitulation move?
Will California's (the 8th largest economy) attempts to remain solvent by issuing IOU's be the trigger? 
Will it come from Europe, Ireland? etc.
Swine flu, Iran, North Korea?
Massive debt and rising unemployment worldwide? (OECD)
Is this just market noise to keep the suckers on the sidelines while the smart money accumulates?
Some how I don't think so but whatever it is none of us will see it coming.

But one thing is for sure, we are living in interesting times and some will make a killing and some will probably throw themselves out of windows.

Hope we can all prosper and help each other cause I don't think we have scene anything yet

Best Of Luck

G


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> So what will be the trigger or black swan event that sends this sucker down in the final capitulation move?
> Will California's (the 8th largest economy) attempts to remain solvent by issuing IOU's be the trigger?
> Will it come from Europe, Ireland? etc.
> Swine flu, Iran, North Korea?
> ...




Agree mate

When I was in Kazakhstan the only news we got was Russian. Oil etc etc.

There are huge dangers out there, and the future is in the lap of the gods.

But the charts never lie.

I think most funnymentalists would be on Serverqual which is the new Prozac I've been told.

How can any funnymentalist exist with so much conflicting data of such dubious quality.

Watch yer charts mates.

gg


----------



## sammy84 (3 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Too many people watching this potential H&S. Another possibility that will happen is that there will be a false break of the neck line...that line of support is on a lot of peoples watch list. The fundies might then step in, market could continue past the right shoulder and provide a bullish set-up.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Too many people watching this potential H&S. Another possibility that will happen is that there will be a false break of the neck line...that line of support is on a lot of peoples watch list. The fundies might then step in, market could continue past the right shoulder and provide a bullish set-up.




Its an a ascending triangle mate, and you could be on the money.

They are a powerful TA setup.

Still its a h and s 

I'll wait and see before I put my hard earned on to it.

gg


----------



## sammy84 (4 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Its an a ascending triangle mate, and you could be on the money.
> 
> They are a powerful TA setup.
> 
> ...




Curtis Arnold in his PPS system identified H&S patterns that could be traded to the long side. When an index/stock is an uptrend and then starts to consolidate, if a H&S is formed, a break of the right shoulder creates a long set-up. In many cases this sort of set-up will also form an ascending triangle, but they are still nevertheless two different patterns. 

Same as you however, not trading either set-up, this market will give us a direction soon enough. I'm finding it hard to find short set-ups at the moment however....


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (4 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Curtis Arnold in his PPS system identified H&S patterns that could be traded to the long side. When an index/stock is an uptrend and then starts to consolidate, if a H&S is formed, a break of the right shoulder creates a long set-up. In many cases this sort of set-up will also form an ascending triangle, but they are still nevertheless two different patterns.
> 
> Same as you however, not trading either set-up, this market will give us a direction soon enough. I'm finding it hard to find short set-ups at the moment however....




Agree mate, if in doubt, stay out.

gg


----------



## Private Trader (4 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I see a fake break to the downside (between 3722 - 3757) before the bulls take charge & push the index to between 4101 - 4116. 

Note the divergence between the On Balance Volume & the Chart.

Either way it should make an interesting ride.

Good Trading!!!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (4 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Private Trader said:


> I see a fake break to the downside (between 3722 - 3757) before the bulls take charge & push the index to between 4101 - 4116.
> 
> Note the divergence between the On Balance Volume & the Chart.
> 
> ...




Good point PT.

Its exciting. 

Either increase ones kopeks or go broke.

The volume is crazy, then the markets are crazy atm.

gg


----------



## tech/a (4 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Private Trader said:


> I see a fake break to the downside (between 3722 - 3757) before the bulls take charge & push the index to between 4101 - 4116.
> 
> Note the divergence between the On Balance Volume & the Chart.
> 
> ...




Interesting.
You equate rising volume to rising markets?

A number of markets are showing similar patterns.
All bearish.
Strange to have a contrarian view.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (4 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Point taken tech

g


----------



## Sean K (4 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Interesting.
> You equate rising volume to rising markets?



I wouldn't be too happy with rising volume in a downward move, if that was the case. 

eeeeek


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (4 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I wouldn't be too happy with rising volume in a downward move, if that was the case.
> 
> eeeeek




agree Kennas, though it depends where the close ends on the bar.

gg


----------



## Private Trader (4 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Interesting.
> You equate rising volume to rising markets?
> 
> A number of markets are showing similar patterns.
> ...




Just want to clarify my view.
1) OBV - Is a measure of supply & demand. Demand has increased whilst prices have decreased, signalling an upturn will likely occur in the near future.
2) Dow Theory - 3rd time frame signals a change in trend, after a bounce at 50% retraction of the march bull run.
3) Gann Swing Charts - Daily charts indicate a turn in trend, validating the long term trend.

Good Trading!!!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (4 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Private Trader said:


> Just want to clarify my view.
> 1) OBV - Is a measure of supply & demand. Demand has increased whilst prices have decreased, signalling an upturn will likely occur in the near future.
> 2) Dow Theory - 3rd time frame signals a change in trend, after a bounce at 50% retraction of the march bull run.
> 3) Gann Swing Charts - Daily charts indicate a turn in trend, validating the long term trend.
> ...




Sometimes!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I always interpret an increase in volume with 3 bars down closing towards the lows  as selling ++
I see it on weeklies which take the noise out of the strum of daily trading.
The rest of yer points are best addressed by the techies, 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I see nothing to indicate on the charts of the xao that we are not at the beginning of a wave 5, and hopefully the last downward movement in this bear market.

The chart is moving as I suggested a week or so ago.

Enclosed is a weekly of the xao.


gg


----------



## Sean K (6 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Just polishing up the crystal ball and I see a another potential H&S forming up.



Breaking 3800 might be the catalyst, but there's plenty of support around 3700-50 ish. Interesting juncture.


----------



## jonojpsg (6 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Breaking 3800 might be the catalyst, but there's plenty of support around 3700-50 ish. Interesting juncture.




Mmmm yep, I'd say that if 3700 breaks then the @#%! will hit the fan


----------



## naughtynickers (8 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jonojpsg said:


> Mmmm yep, I'd say that if 3700 breaks then the @#%! will hit the fan




well we will find out today as 3700 will surely be breached by 10:08AM


----------



## tech/a (8 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Private Trader said:


> Just want to clarify my view.
> 1) OBV - Is a measure of supply & demand. Demand has increased whilst prices have decreased, signalling an upturn will likely occur in the near future.
> 2) Dow Theory - 3rd time frame signals a change in trend, after a bounce at 50% retraction of the march bull run.
> 3) Gann Swing Charts - Daily charts indicate a turn in trend, validating the long term trend.
> ...




Oh Yogi.

Hmm volume has increased NOT demand.
Volume has increased due to selling into muffins.

Rest is rubbish.

Nothing has changed from my original analysis.
Post #6590


----------



## Sunder (8 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



naughtynickers said:


> well we will find out today as 3700 will surely be breached by 10:08AM




Damn, I thought it would as well, but unless we lose another 20 odd points in the next 2 hours, I don't think it will.

I'm thinking of extending my shorts of the XJO if we break 3700 and confirm.


----------



## gfresh (8 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

2pm programmed buying across the board.. some good volume, this ship is turning around for a little bit (maybe!)


----------



## skyQuake (8 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> 2pm programmed buying across the board.. some good volume, this ship is turning around for a little bit (maybe!)




And dragged the SPI along. Citi started buying bhp at 1:30 and lots others.
Dragggged the SPI up

..and the XJO closes *UP *1 point today lol..


----------



## nunthewiser (8 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> And dragged the SPI along. Citi started buying bhp at 1:30 and lots others.Dragggged the SPI up
> 
> ..and the XJO closes *UP *1 point today lol..





Hi skyquake , not being picky , just intrested in how you actually know exactly who is buying 

cheers in advance


----------



## Private Trader (9 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Oh Yogi.
> 
> Hmm volume has increased NOT demand.
> Volume has increased due to selling into muffins.
> ...




Hey Buddy,
You can disagree as much as you like, but the proof is in the pudding.

Look out 4101 - 4116 before the end of August.

It takes guts but sometimes you just have to trade it.

Happy Trading


----------



## tech/a (9 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Private Trader said:


> Hey Buddy,
> You can disagree as much as you like, but the proof is in the pudding.
> 
> Look out 4101 - 4116 before the end of August.
> ...




You call that "Proof?"

Oh I see thats why it takes "guts" to trade it.
So your long---Enjoy.


----------



## Sean K (9 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> You call that "Proof?"



I'm filing this 'proof' away till August. LOL


----------



## nomore4s (14 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have been doing some research into other periods were the Aussie stock market has suffered major crashes and due to the XAO's limited history the best one to compare this current one too is the 1987 crash.

Both periods went virtually vertical before the crashes (bubbles growing & bubbles bursting -I have these periods showing up quite clearly on other charts and can post them if anyone is interested). Both periods also suffered around a 50% decline (so far for current crash).

Anyway I'd thought I'd look at some chart patterns from 1987 to see if I could get any idea of what patterns to look for and maybe be able to trade. I was actually quite surprised to see the similarities presented in the charts(weekly) so far. While not identical they are close enough for me to be keeping a closer eye on to see how it plays out from here - remember don't be a dick for a tick.

_Disclaimer_: This is a look at possibilities based purely on chart patterns and is more for general interest (I found it interesting at least) and discussion then anything else. I'm not comparing fundamentals or economic climates between these eras and tbh have no interest in discussing them.


----------



## beamstas (14 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Why people think rising volume is rising demand is beyond me  Obviously there is a buyer for every seller.

Rising Volume is rising activity.


----------



## Sean K (14 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Breaking 3800 might be the catalyst, but there's plenty of support around 3700-50 ish. Interesting juncture.



Bounced off that line (so far) but it could be just a pause. Nice pause though. Good to see buyers coming in. Maybe this earnings season is more than factored in and it'll surprise to the upside. Or not...H&S still well in play.


----------



## sammy84 (14 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> Why people think rising volume is rising demand is beyond me  Obviously there is a buyer for every seller.
> 
> Rising Volume is rising activity.




And rising activity is normally indicative of increased participation in the market, which normally means increased buying demand. I'm not saying that you want ultra high voilumes either. But up moves are not too convincing when everyone is standing on the sidelines.


----------



## Trembling Hand (14 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> And rising activity is normally indicative of increased participation in the market, which normally means increased buying demand. I'm not saying that you want ultra high volumes either. But up moves are not too convincing when everyone is standing on the sidelines.



 Depends where it is in the move. A low volume rally is a common occurrence after falls because there is no more sellers. That's very convincing.


----------



## beamstas (14 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> And rising activity is normally indicative of increased participation in the market, *which normally means increased buying demand.* I'm not saying that you want ultra high voilumes either. But up moves are not too convincing when everyone is standing on the sidelines.




You are forgetting the other side again.
"Which normally means increased buying and increased selling" - fixed.

Volume alone means nothing , you really need to look at the range.

*Rising volume can be both bearish and bullish, the same as falling volume.*


----------



## sammy84 (14 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Depends where it is in the move. A low volume rally is a common occurrence after falls because there is no more sellers. That's very convincing.




I prefer low volume rallies once the trend has changed direction/resistance being broken. For the initial move I prefer some volume confirmation that buying pressure has caused this move, and that there are now locked in buyers with this move. Otherwise an up move on low volume would require a greater study into the price/volume action preceding the move to see if the sellers are really gone, which is just another thing to get wrong :

Brad I know the concept that for every buyer their has to be a seller. And obviously you have to look at the days price action to put the volume in perspective, that goes without saying.


----------



## Cartman (14 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> Volume alone means nothing , you really need to look at the range.






sammy84 said:


> obviously you have to look at the days price action to put the volume in perspective, that goes without saying.





if i may be a little metaphoric ---

the *range* is the size of the football field u r playing on --

at certain times during the game (*price level*) --

the forwards are trying to beat the cr@p out of each other (*volume*)

thats the time to get the binoculars out


----------



## beamstas (14 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

High
Low
Close


----------



## MR. (14 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> I have been doing some research into other periods were the Aussie stock market has suffered major crashes and due to the XAO's limited history the best one to compare this current one too is the 1987 crash.
> 
> Both periods went virtually vertical before the crashes (bubbles growing & bubbles bursting -I have these periods showing up quite clearly on other charts and can post them if anyone is interested). Both periods also suffered around a 50% decline (so far for current crash).
> 
> ...




Fair enough....  But what about time frames?  Must say with reference to your charts above, I'm having a little trouble how a chart pattern spanning 87, 88, 89 and 90 can be re-produced again now all in a single year! Is it to have any meaning? 

This is what I've been looking at (since you brought it up) "87 vs 08". Take a look at the same periods in the same time frames. (you did suggest weekly?)Both hit in the month of October. Both falls were approx 50%, yes. With the second lows (3 months later) late Feb88 & early March09. From there "both" rebounded, some 32 percent, then side ways / dropped back a little over a couple of months.... very similar. So after the "dropped back a little" the low in 88 was in June then the market rallied a further 15% in a month!  

Will we now see a 15% rise in July or there abouts? 

ps: Also noticed back in 87 we had more of our own market. We didn't follow America day in and Day out!


----------



## nomore4s (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

MR. I'm not expecting the full pattern to play out this year, if it does play out like that it will be over a similar period of 3-5 years. This was basically a longer term look at what might play out in the markets over the next few years - sideways between maybe a 1000-1500 point range, but if broken down into smaller time frames (1-2 year periods) you can see you end up with smaller bull & bear trends within that range. Sometimes it pays to keep the longer term trends & patterns in mind.

While I agree alot has changed in the markets since 1987, the similar patterns to me are very telling. A lot of T/A is based around the psychology of the market participants and the similarities between these patterns (so far) shows that the 'panic' of a bubble bursting after the 'euphoria' of an over inflated bubble would appear to be much the same today as it was back then. While it remains to be seen whether this 'recovery' continues to play out as it did back in 1987, it is worth taking note of because it could provide opportunities for us traders/investors.

As for the question about July, we will have to wait and see.


----------



## Sean K (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This range looks important in the short term. Breaking down looks very bearish, where breaking up puts me in a quandary. The market (and you EW fanatics) is supposed to be giving me a chance to invest around the 3000 mark. Maybe that chance has gone. And maybe not. (That's the EW stance too I feel)


----------



## ivant (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> This range looks important in the short term. Breaking down looks very bearish, where breaking up puts me in a quandary. The market (and you EW fanatics) is supposed to be giving me a chance to invest around the 3000 mark. Maybe that chance has gone. And maybe not. (That's the EW stance too I feel)




i think one cannot exclude the possibility of 2500 until we see how october/november plays out. on a smaller time frame, the next two weeks are also very important. we fall here, and there will be a lot of pressure to bring S&P500 to 770, which is an easy break to 750. If we are around 750-800 by the end of the quarter, you can bet your last dollar we will retest 666 in late october/november. the question i ask is how much support will that scenario create. of course if we hold on, and break 950 and move towards 1000 and beyond, one could expect no resistance until 4400 on our market, and that will mean that we could really be recovering. i see the first scenario more likely.


----------



## jancha (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i think one cannot exclude the possibility of 2500 ?

In order for the market to drop that level there would have to be something alot more serious than whats already unfolded. What would the condition of the average super fund or alot of other assets be in if that were the case? You would be talking of a depression not a recession. I'm not a chartist or an economist but i think your 2500 is way off the money.


----------



## MRC & Co (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Most firms seem to be outperforming.  

Bank of America and Citi should be the most important in regards to how the Commercial finance world is fairing.  

As of yesterday just after 4pm I turned bullish again.  

Chop chop.


----------



## edz (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> As of yesterday just after 4pm I turned bullish again.
> 
> Chop chop.




Good call MRC & Co


----------



## skyQuake (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking for the final leg up after the China GDP figures, then we should have a bit of downside.
Many breaks on the majors fwiw.


----------



## Largesse (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

looking for a chunky bounce off 4050-4100


----------



## Glen48 (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Econophysicist Predicts Date of Chinese Stock Market Collapse
The Shanghai Composite Index will burst between July 17 and 27, according to a new econophysics forecast.

The boom and bust nature of economics is one of the most puzzling aspects of the modern world. In the last year or so, many people have learned to their cost that when bubbles burst, businesses, jobs, and livelihoods can go with them.

So an obvious question arises: can we spot bubbles when they occur and predict when they are about to burst? One group of theorists say that they can and have used their techniques to make an extraordinary prediction.

First, they say that they've found the telltale signs of a bubble in the growth rate of the Shanghai Composite stock-market index. And second, they say that this bubble will burst between July 17 and 27.

That's a brave move, so let's look at it in more detail. The theorist behind this prediction is Didier Sornette at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, in Zurich, who has pioneered the study of market bubbles. Last year, he used his method for spotting bubbles to reveal that oil prices where dangerously inflated.

The telltale sign of a bubble, he says, is a faster than exponential growth rate caused by a positive feedback mechanism that generates this nonlinear growth.

The faster than exponential growth rate is relatively easy to spot. According to the analysis done by Sornette and a few mates, the Shanghai Composite Index certainly seems to have had a faster than exponential growth--a 69 percent rise since October of last year.

Whether an unsustainable positive feedback mechanism is causing this growth isn't so clear. Sornette and co suggest that what is responsible is the Chinese government's massive lending spree designed to maintain its economic growth rate at 8 percent a year. China has maintained that kind of growth for some years now.

Let's take at face value the idea that a bubble has formed. What of the prediction that it is about to burst? Just how this team arrives at such a precise date isn't clear, but whatever the mechanism, this is a much more speculative move.

One thing that physicists have learned about complex systems, such as stock markets, earthquakes, and forest fires, to name just a few, is that when changes occur they are scale invariant.

That means that if you were to remove the numbers from the axes of a graph plotting this behavior, there is no way that you could identify the scale of the events by looking at the plot. This implies that there is really no difference in principle between a small change in the stock market today and catastrophic change tomorrow.

That makes predictions of almost anything, let alone the imminent collapse of a bubble, extremely hard to make. Impossible may not be too strong a word for it.

Sornette and co do not say how they make their prediction, but they do hedge it by saying, "This will lead to a change in regime which may be a crash or a more gentle bubble deflation."

But they're still predicting an end to this faster than exponential growth in the Shanghai Composite Index between July 17 and 27. That change in growth will of course happen one day, but you'd have to have very good reasons to say that it will occur between those two dates. Those reasons are missing from this paper.

I say that this is a prediction that is impossible to make. And I'm prepared to bet Sornette that he's wrong. The stakes? Let's say an arXiv blog baseball cap and T-shirt.

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/0907.1827: The Chinese Equity Bubble: Ready to Burst


----------



## makingmoney (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hmmm from the last threads i c some traders bullish atm...hmm i personally see the next few weeks a correction in the market..with up and coming reports coming in...but in august i say the bulls will come out again,lets wait and see


----------



## MRC & Co (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> hmmm from the last threads* i c some traders bullish atm*...hmm i personally see the next few weeks a correction in the market..with up and coming reports coming in...but in august i say the bulls will come out again,lets wait and see




Remember, contrarian plays don't work when *some* traders are bullish (or bearish), it's when the *vast majority *are.


----------



## Frank D (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Financial Index*

I said a number of months ago that any continuation upwards would
 be based on the Financial Index in the 3rd Quarter.

*We have a breakout of the 2008 lows, a move down into the 2009 lows, 
and price action should now be swinging back towards the Yearly 
50% levels @ 4400+ *

After last weeks push down I thought it wasn't going to play out...

But it now looks like a fake push down and prices now rising above the 3rd quarter 50% levels, which can lead to 'thrust' patterns upwards.

Reporting season in August, I just don't see any weakness simply 
becasue the current price action doesn't favour heading down.

If markets were going down, they wouldn't 'spring' back above in the
3rd Quarter like they have.

The Financial Index begins to consolidate above 3700 over the next 
5-days, it's a good bet it will go higher.


----------



## nunthewiser (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

so no one entered anything short today i take it ?

i cant im fishing ........... and will be for a few more days yet

just intrested to know how the minions are thinking


----------



## MR. (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> A lot of T/A is based around the psychology of the market participants and the similarities between these patterns (so far) shows that the 'panic' of a bubble bursting after the 'euphoria' of an over inflated bubble would appear to be much the same today as it was back then. While it remains to be seen whether this 'recovery' continues to play out as it did back in 1987, it is worth taking note of because it could provide opportunities for us traders/investors.




Your explanation above concurs with the reason for my endeavours in 87.  With the time frames and rebounds being so similar I agree that it appears to be based purely (as you put it) “around the psychology of the market participants.”  Either that or manipulation at its best, LOL. Coincidence? 

That second chart of yours should have been over the same time frame. You obviously had been looking at the same data, for the same reasons as I, but confusion occurred here when your blue line with that time frame was plotted miles out. But now get your drift.....

Will correct, those 32% rebounds in my last post, should have read 26% rebounds, was writing off memory.  That 32% rebound  is  the average rebound a year after a stock market crash, off memory. LOL 

Looking for 15. Then back to the Yen, short just still seems un-productive.  



nunthewiser said:


> so no one entered anything short today i take it ?
> 
> i cant im fishing ........... and will be for a few more days yet
> 
> just intrested to know how the minions are thinking




what ya fishin?


----------



## nomore4s (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> confusion occurred here when your blue line with that time frame was plotted miles out. But now get your drift.....




lol, sorry the blue lines aren't to scale as I had limited space on the chart to draw them.


----------



## MR. (15 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> lol, sorry the blue lines aren't to scale as I had limited space on the chart to draw them.



well well..... 



Glen48 said:


> But they're still predicting an end to this faster than exponential growth in the Shanghai Composite Index between July 17 and 27. That change in growth will of course happen one day, but you'd have to have very good reasons to say that it will occur between those two dates. Those reasons are missing from this paper.






skyQuake said:


> Looking for the final leg up after the China GDP figures




????

Shanghai Index 
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Does appear a little too high!


----------



## ivant (16 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jancha said:


> i think one cannot exclude the possibility of 2500 ?
> 
> In order for the market to drop that level there would have to be something alot more serious than whats already unfolded. What would the condition of the average super fund or alot of other assets be in if that were the case? You would be talking of a depression not a recession. I'm not a chartist or an economist but i think your 2500 is way off the money.




Didn't say it was going to happen, but as I said, I would not count it out just yet. Nothing great has happened since March. Panic could shake the boat. In terms of companies outperforming, it is very difficult for them to underperform this quarter. The bar is way too low. I think Goldman will be interesting to watch. If they can break above 155, financials could have a rally. That is a heck of a resistance line at that level. Unemployment still is a bad sign. That will most likely push house prices down. In any case, my


----------



## ivant (16 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

P.S. I am surprised that the bears broke the 880 level on the S&P. i thought there would be a lot of money at that level to keep the boat afloat. A great trick to take us through the summer months (in the northern hemisphere).


----------



## motorway (16 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Glen48 said:


> Tuesday, July 14, 2009
> Econophysicist Predicts Date of Chinese Stock Market Collapse
> The Shanghai Composite Index will burst between July 17 and 27, according to a new econophysics forecast.
> 
> ...




At a critical point 
Bubbles end
They can bust or deflate

Sornette defines a Bubble

as a growth rates above exponential
ie on a log chart the line will curve ( up or down-anti bubble )
Of course this is unsustainable..

Caused by a Synchrony emerging between market participants

In this PAPER he uses clapping at a concert as the analogy

Synchrony can only break down

Another good example is people on a boat 
all running to the one side to look at something or avoid something

The "random" oscillations take on a certain characteristic
In Sornettes terms ---> log periodic

Again this is back to differences of opinion
revealed by fluctuations

It depends on how much air is in the bubble
and outside triggers ( eg money tightening )
whether the bubble is just a temp overbought state
which leads to correction and consolidation
or a full break like in 1987

I think there is more to consider
eg where the action as come from
If it is from an oversold state
or already on top of a extended move

He identifies the "fluctuation" and projects from the critical point
Where The "Synchrony" collapses into itself..

motorway



> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=317394&postcount=9
> 
> London Bridge Is Swaying ‘Round
> On June 10, 2000, the Millennium Bridge opened to the public with great fanfare.
> ...


----------



## nunthewiser (16 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

so i take it im the only goose in these forums that entered anything short today ? 

geez next time im gunna throw the bishop overboard instead of listening to his drunken fool ramblings


----------



## skyQuake (16 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> so i take it im the only goose in these forums that entered anything short today ?
> 
> geez next time im gunna throw the bishop overboard instead of listening to his drunken fool ramblings




You're not the only goose nun! Lets see what tomorrow will bring


----------



## nunthewiser (16 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> You're not the only goose nun! Lets see what tomorrow will bring





would that be classed as a "gaggle " then ?


----------



## skyQuake (16 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> would that be classed as a "gaggle " then ?




A gaggle of nuns?


----------



## brty (16 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Does closing out profitable longs today make me a goose as well??

brty


----------



## skyQuake (16 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> Does closing out profitable longs today make me a goose as well??
> 
> brty




Only if 
a) you didn't close them at the highs in the open
b) and it rallies tomorrow 

You know being a goose is tough work, we can't just let anyone be goose.


----------



## MRC & Co (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My vote for the next few trading days is sideways to downwards chop.

After that?  Not sure yet.  

Be happy to take shorts a little higher, say 935s for now.  

Be happy to cover around the 900s.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> My vote for the next few trading days is sideways to downwards chop.
> 
> After that?  Not sure yet.
> 
> ...




I've been waiting all night for an opinion on the xao.

I dunno.

gg


----------



## Sean K (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've been waiting all night for an opinion on the xao.
> 
> I dunno.
> 
> gg



Count B.


----------



## makingmoney (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

wow 4 strong days from the dow and the bulls r out again...lol


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> wow 4 strong days from the dow and the bulls r out again...lol




I'm on the road today so don't have charts, and my driver manages to hit every pothole on the Flinders Highway, but the xao chart on asf looks a bit sick to me today.

Find a buyer.

Its a zero sum game and you don't want to be the zero.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just managed to get a link back on.

XAO looks parlous on asf chart.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thar she blows.

Wimmin n chilren first.

gg


----------



## White_Knight (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I might believe that if i hadnt heard the exact same sentiment about half a dozen times since the March lows.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



White_Knight said:


> I might believe that if i hadnt heard the exact same sentiment about half a dozen times since the March lows.




Friday can be lonely late in the afternoon.

gg


----------



## RayG (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Friday can be lonely late in the afternoon.
> 
> gg




Hi Lonely,  I'm confused,   does anyone have some insight into what's driving this rally?

My only guess is the bears are panicking....   

Regards
Ray


----------



## skyQuake (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> Hi Lonely,  I'm confused,   does anyone have some insight into what's driving this rally?
> 
> My only guess is the bears are panicking....
> 
> ...




Cause everyone was short... Massive squeeze.
But looks like a few bears are getting back into it today.


----------



## gfresh (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> Hi Lonely,  I'm confused,   does anyone have some insight into what's driving this rally?




Window dressing..


----------



## skyQuake (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> Window dressing..




For the July month?


----------



## Real1ty (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> Window dressing..




Is this the same window dressing that was being done in the lead up to the end of the financial year?

You know the theory that once the new FY begins we are headed for the Abyss


----------



## White_Knight (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You know i really think that a lot of people have had their pocketbooks and "strategy" so brutalised over the last 18 months that they simply cant see the forest for the trees anymore.


----------



## Edwood (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Cause everyone was short... Massive squeeze.
> But looks like a few bears are getting back into it today.




double witching, with a sprinkling of intc & gs to get thigns boiling


----------



## Edwood (17 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

buy the Wed into expiry, sell the monday after


----------



## MRC & Co (18 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've been waiting all night for an opinion on the xao.
> 
> I dunno.
> 
> gg




lol, sorry, my post was for the S&P, been watching it too much lately  

Assume similar for the XAO over the next few days.  Today being the first.


----------



## Edwood (18 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

we've just seen either a 3 or C - question is whether or not its completed - if it has then look for a move back to .236 or .382 zones next week, imo


----------



## nomore4s (18 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some patterns, just for interests sake. I'm probably neutral atm with a slight bullish bias. Needs to break 4100 with some conviction to make me bullish till around 4300-4600, prices back under 3900 could mean more sideways action, under 3700 and I'm bearish.

Daily chart 1st & Weekly chart 2nd.


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Some patterns, just for interests sake. I'm probably neutral atm with a slight bullish bias. Needs to break 4100 with some conviction to make me bullish till around 4300-4600, prices back under 3900 could mean more sideways action, under 3700 and I'm bearish.



And a larger, more complex, H&S is still in play.

I'm sort of hoping the alternate count is in play, and we've seen THE low.


----------



## motorway (18 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> The Primary trend of any Market cannot be manipulated.
> 
> Charles Dow




Here is The ( & I mean *THE* there is only one )
Primary Trend of the Market (200 pt chart of XAO is beyond manipulation )

It gives indication that the bottom is in ( until further notice  )

march 2009 would seem to be as significant as march 2003

Change of behavior with the last sequence of columns
_( watch the down waves when looking to go long )
_


_What do I mean by beyond manipulation
_

That there is no significant factors of a larger scale 
that can impinge and  cause dicontinuities

Not in the way that  movements on this chart can cause on eg a 50 pt chart..

This chart would give more confirmation
when the current "step back" pushes up to 4200
( thrust after reversal ?)

It could pull back down one last time ( before moving higher to 4200 ) and make a higher low
( still have seen the bottom )
setting up a very good Buy point 
with a Secondary Bottom, note straddling the Diagonal ,,

* BUT *  beyond manipulation means such normal confirmation
is not a usual consideration--> With no larger scale at work-->
What is (possibly ) more likely is that the chart pauses and corrects in time instead of price. 

As the hand ( primary trend ) holding the pendulum moves higher 
Even though the swings  _( the fluctuations ) _ do not..


motorway


----------



## wonderrman (18 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Dow looks overbought on a short-term frame, with resistance at 8,850. Would expect a decline over the next few days. No reason why the XAO wouldn't follow.

3 to 6 month time frame still looking bullish, positive reports out of the US and less worser  eco news should continue to push the market to at least 4300.

I would not rule out a rally to 5000 - 5200 before end of year if the eco news remains good enough for the masses. 

It looks like we have seen an intermediate bear market low of 3,121 on March 3. 

In 1966, the stock market topped out with the Dow at 995. By September 1967 the Dow had fallen to 786. A big rally followed, the Dow went back up to 985 in December 1968. Many called this a new bull market, it turned out to be a massive bear market rally. In December, the market turned down as the bear market took over again. By December 1969 the Dow had fallen back to 769. The market rallied again to 842 by December 1970. 

With the amounts of stimulu being provided by the US printing machine that is the Fed reserve, I don't think we have seen the end of this bear market. The low of March 6 did not feel like a typical bottom, and the amount of people who called the low as well as the quick change from pessimism to optimistic attitudes on Wall Street was strange. Usually the bears are still dominant for 6 to 12 months after a major bottom. 

Could we see a situation like what occured from 66 to 69 occur? Your guess is as good as mine. It is a scenario that could pan out though. Happy trading.



wonder. 

wonder.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Here is The ( & I mean *THE* there is only one )
> Primary Trend of the Market (200 pt chart of XAO is beyond manipulation )
> 
> It gives indication that the bottom is in ( until further notice  )
> ...




Agree, unless the bottom is not in.

And one knows what happens to those who pick bottoms.

gg


----------



## jancha (20 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> And one knows what happens to those who pick bottoms.
> 
> gg






Garpal Gumnut said:


> Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.
> 
> It provides useful guidance for long term traders as to possible points at which to attempt to predict the top of a bull trend and in the present case, the bottom of a bear.
> 
> ...




So what happens to ones that pick the bottom gg?


----------



## gfresh (20 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jancha said:


> There are too many hopeful festian fundamentalists posting hopeful scenarios of a return to an everlasting bull market.
> 
> It is not going to happen, and there is much more money to be lost on the long side.




Can you really say that with any real certainty? Where the economic reality seems to be, and where the charts go are often very out of step - logic usually never plays a part. As can be seen of the break of the H&S on the XAO which looked like the end of the rally, but has since reversed, and now looks to be testing the top again. All of this seems to be eating into the bear's timeframe of the collapse that is about to happen any moment now to take us down below 3000 in a matter of months... but which doesn't seem to be happening. Not even evident on the short-term scale. 



jancha said:


> Present fundamental economic answers seem predicated on socialist principles of bailing out the undeserving and getting the future generations to pay the debt. These attempts will fail.




Worked in the past..


----------



## Sean K (20 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jancha said:


> And one knows what happens to those who pick bottoms.
> 
> gg
> 
> ...



Unfairly targetted where?

And, what if an EW has called a bottom?

Or, what about another that has an alternate count that the March low was THE bottom?


----------



## motorway (20 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> Can you really say that with any real certainty? Where the economic reality seems to be, and where the charts go are often very out of step - logic usually never plays a part. As can be seen of the break of the H&S on the XAO which looked like the end of the rally, but has since reversed, and now looks to be testing the top again. All of this seems to be eating into the bear's timeframe of the collapse that is about to happen any moment now to take us down below 3000 in a matter of months... but which doesn't seem to be happening. Not even evident on the short-term scale.
> 
> 
> 
> Worked in the past..




Those who do pick bottoms ( and tops )
If they know how to use that information

Should make fortunes

Unless you can identify ( a better word )
a top or bottom on some scale
how else ? chart obviously shows large trends
You have to ride those  trends

H&S , EW ?

What we need is to know is , is that a storm cloud ?
Or is another a portent of fine weather .

That at sometimes one can see shapes ( of the imagination )
In them is beside the point

the 200 pt chart  ( and the XAO can move 200 pt in 30 mins )
moves LOCKSTEP ( but ahead ? ) with business and economic cycle

( It would not be primary trend if it did not )

Nomore4 brings up the option of what sornette would call an anti bubble

OK Watch for the 50pt chart to break free and start to rally within the confines
of the 200 pt chart to negate that possibility 

That would mean the sychrony is breaking down
and new cycle is starting
Markets are Minds
Minds CHANGE
If your mind does not change it gets replaced when you run out of money --> But either way the Mind of the Market changes
and will do what it will do  regardless of the pretty shapes people seem to focus on.. You Run out of money Because  you could not identify the TOP or The BOTTOM

And bought when you should have sold..

( Yes A mechanical system could do this for you ...To some extent )





> From the general formations (not so-called patterns )which are popular with some purely theoretical technicians) we are able to detect accumulation or distribution, and we see, clearly marked, the lines of support and supply. We can also identify the marking up and marking down periods to excellent advantage--------> RDW




That a cloud looks like a witch on a broomstick
does not mean that it is going to rain

Same Thing IT is form the GENERAL FORMATIONS . the PATTERNS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY and ONLY .... (a  brilliant observation )

On Sornette anti Bubble and Bubble



> , the figure chart may show many fluctuations
> while the verticals are unchanged. RDW




( see the connection ? )

Ok consider the possible divergence and convergence
between say that 200 pt chart and the 50 pt chart ( good choice for the XAO keep an eye on the 100 and 25 too )

When accumulation starts it will show up on the smaller scale charts
and the way that they start to become active..
and display a higher density of information...

watch for dullness
and then which direction activity expands towards....

gauge the probabilities ( We all know that is what it is about ? )

motorway


----------



## Real1ty (20 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jancha said:


> Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.
> 
> There are too many hopeful festian fundamentalists posting hopeful scenarios of a return to an everlasting bull market.





You are unfairly targeting hopeful festion fundamentalists


----------



## makingmoney (20 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jancha said:


> And one knows what happens to those who pick bottoms.
> 
> gg
> 
> ...




ummm 2400 by the end of the year..i would say this..dont pull 2 much faith in elliots wave 5 lmao...cause 2400 just seems out of sight...with the bulls and the dow (spin of king propaganda)there no way i can see it happening..they make bad news seem gud...u gotta c citi/gm=failed crashed companies yet the spin of the news..the bulls r still here..i say the lows of feb where the bottom,and yes agreed with the incoming infomation of end year reports it will correct itself maybe 10%..but my personal opinion is after mid august the bulls will take it through 4200 rest


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Guys jancha has posted OTHER peoples words without using the quote tags.

From my reading all jancha has asked is



> So what happens to ones that pick the bottom gg?




the rest of the post was gg's :


----------



## nomore4s (20 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Guys jancha has posted OTHER peoples words without using the quote tags.
> 
> the rest of the post was gg's :




lol, oops. It appears you are right TH - I've fixed the problem. Didn't realise the second part of Jancha's post was an old GG post.


----------



## skyQuake (20 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> On 11 November 2004 the spi neared 3866, a technical hedge fund called a major elliot wave top at 3866 announcing they would stake their reputation on it (a fatal mistake) having shorted 4500 spi contracts. The bull elephants set about proving the call wrong. The phones went white hot. The best exit offer obtained was 3920.


----------



## makingmoney (20 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

oh snap sorry jancha didnt see ur question on the bottom..my bad


----------



## Largesse (20 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


>




just a lazy -$6Million


----------



## skyQuake (20 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Largesse said:


> just a lazy -$6Million




They should have averaged and gotten out in March :


----------



## Awesomandy (20 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> They should have averaged and gotten out in March :




Just imagine how many margin calls you would get when you have up to $330m unrealised loss sitting in the account.


----------



## Broadway (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Private Trader said:


> I see a fake break to the downside (between 3722 - 3757) before the bulls take charge & push the index to between 4101 - 4116.
> 
> Note the divergence between the On Balance Volume & the Chart.
> 
> ...




Nice call back then PT. (he posted this 4th july)
You had alot of doubters.
Any chance you could show that divergence on a chart?
And are you bearish any time soon?


----------



## nunthewiser (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

for what its worth .....

i have entered BHP and TLS short as of today 

last shorts of BHP and WDC was stopped out 

lets see how these go

yours sincerely 

a.goose


----------



## skyQuake (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> for what its worth .....
> 
> i have entered BHP and TLS short as of today
> 
> ...




Still holding my shorts - NAB and a few others. US is overdue for a downmove... and if it does, watch out below! (Then Aus will have a nice squeeze after the gap down haha)


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Nice call back then PT. (he posted this 4th july)
> You had alot of doubters.
> Any chance you could show that divergence on a chart?
> And are you bearish any time soon?




Broadway I remember looking at that to see what Divergence he was talking about. As Divergence after a rally (I guess he was talking about daily) would be bearish.

I couldn't make any sense of it because 1 I couldn't see divergence and 2 it would be bearish 

Anyway we did get a false break. Which is keep with the H & S calls on this forum, think they are running at about a 20% hit rate!! good work there 

For the bears I reckon you haven't got an edge this week shorting but maybe the coin I flipped was stuffed.


----------



## explod (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Broadway I remember looking at that to see what Divergence he was talking about. As Divergence after a rally (I guess he was talking about daily) would be bearish.
> 
> I couldn't make any sense of it because 1 I couldn't see divergence and 2 it would be bearish
> 
> ...




Todays action looking like a reverse hammer.  4050 looks a bit like a resistance area too, March/paril 05 and start of this year.

just


----------



## Broadway (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Broadway I remember looking at that to see what Divergence he was talking about. As Divergence after a rally (I guess he was talking about daily) would be bearish.
> 
> I couldn't make any sense of it because 1 I couldn't see divergence and 2 it would be bearish
> 
> ...




I didnt understand the divergence he referred to either.
Im short today as well.
But not confidently.
US bonds have turned up.
Equity PCR has been low for days.
Some good volume on last night's US hod.
Other volume hints.
I've been wrong before.

Go The Bears...


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Todays action looking like a reverse hammer.  4050 looks a bit like a resistance area too, March/paril 05 and start of this year.
> 
> just




Today aint over yet.


----------



## Edwood (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

a test of 3890 area would be good


----------



## explod (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Today aint over yet.




tis now

but prolly not enough gap between yestys close to fit the reverss criteria.   Lookin shaky to me though.

The Dow knows


----------



## skyQuake (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> tis now
> 
> but prolly not enough gap between yestys close to fit the reverss criteria.   Lookin shaky to me though.
> 
> The Dow knows




Speaking of gaps, SPI has a gap to close @ 3770s.
And if dow tanks tonight, a few majors would form an island reversal.


----------



## makingmoney (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i could only hope the dow tanks 2nite but with the dow being so bullish 6days in row../sigh..i wouldn't be surprised if the dow rallies again ../sigh..gogo bears


----------



## Nyden (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> i could only hope the dow tanks 2nite but with the dow being so bullish 6days in row../sigh..i wouldn't be surprised if the dow rallies again ../sigh..gogo bears




You *hope* it tanks "2nite"? Wow, what a great basis of investing that is. If the up-trend is so apparently obvious to you, why the heck aren't you apart of it?

Oh, and may I ask - what is with the use of the 2, to substitute to? It's one character more! Are you sending these messages from a cell phone, or what?


----------



## ivant (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

2nite vs tonight, a few characters there . I guess it looks new age 

In any case, the bulls have been crazy over the last few days. I have seen some long time bears turn bullish this week, which makes me edgy. I am short pretty heavily, and down 100 points so far. The market doesn't seem to want to break the 3085ish level at the moment, but I am worried about the 960 level on the S&P tonight. If it doesn't hold, us bears could be in a little trouble. Several indicators are showing a heck of a divergence coming in. Very similar scenario to mid-June technically. Will be an interesting end to the week.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> 2nite vs tonight, a few characters there . I guess it looks new age




Yeah...saved all those 2 extras :


----------



## CamKawa (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well the Dow futures are glowing bright green on Caterpillar's profit announcement. Tonight could be another one for the bulls and break the trading range to the upside. Who's going to go long?


----------



## CamKawa (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

One for the bears though is as the market rallies volumes falling. The "green shooters" are becoming a bit thin on the ground.


----------



## nomore4s (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> Who's going to go long?




The smart question would be "Who's already long?"

I don't know why you guys are trying to fight the trend. All the doom and gloom has clouded your vision imo. We may test the bottom again in the future but why fight against the current strength?


----------



## nomore4s (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> One for the bears though is as the market rallies volumes falling. The "green shooters" are becoming a bit thin on the ground.




Why is that bearish?

Couldn't the fact no volume has come in near or at resistance mean there is no supply there? Especially since the price is still going up?


----------



## makingmoney (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> You *hope* it tanks "2nite"? Wow, what a great basis of investing that is. If the up-trend is so apparently obvious to you, why the heck aren't you apart of it?
> 
> Oh, and may I ask - what is with the use of the 2, to substitute to? It's one character more! Are you sending these messages from a cell phone, or what?




oh wait so u did understand the abrevation..lol..welcome 2 the present day..and replying 2 ur ? "why the heck aren't you apart of it?..well i would love 2 explain my ideas on overbought shares on stochastic oscillator,but im not here all night..instead of paying out my thread y dont u research stochastic oscillators? gg..


----------



## makingmoney (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

cant understand the strong dow futures pointing 2 postive open in 30mins..when the news releases coming out on du pont 62% losses and cit ..lol theres a herd of bulls moving the dow a lot of ppl confident on bad news..gg../sigh


----------



## >Apocalypto< (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> One for the bears though is as the market rallies volumes falling. The "green shooters" are becoming a bit thin on the ground.




based on what the chart shows on the new buying that's normal. the volume bust came on the trend change. selling is dropping off as they are holding and mainly buyers coming on board.

looks normal to me.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> cant understand the strong dow futures pointing 2 postive open in 30mins..when the news releases coming out on du pont 62% losses and cit ..lol theres a herd of bulls moving the dow a lot of ppl confident on bad news..gg../sigh




makingmoney,

you have to ask what does the market expect! 

they can expect lower losses which is bullish as long as they get it.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (21 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Why is that bearish?
> 
> Couldn't the fact no volume has come in near or at resistance mean there is no supply there? Especially since the price is still going up?




If you are seeing up bars, on less and less volume...how is that no supply? I would have thought thats no demand. I would want to see an increase in volume as we approach resistance, to push through it. Down days on small volume would be no supply for me.


----------



## ivant (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bear market rallies die in low volume... Just a point irrelevant to the current scenario. I am a little bit skeptic about all the green shoots. I don't think that the economy is 50% (if we get another push here) better than it was in March. The only way to know that this is a bull for sure is to test a lower level, and by this at least 800 on the S&P500. The Goldman call seems a bit dodgy to me.


----------



## ivant (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oh and what on earth is happening in the US today  SPX is down 10 points from the high of the futures, while the DOW Futs are down 25. That is a bit rare to see.


----------



## MRC & Co (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> well i would love 2 explain my ideas on overbought shares on stochastic oscillator,but im not here all night..instead of paying out my thread y dont u research stochastic oscillators? gg..




LOL

Oh God........


----------



## wayneL (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> oh wait so u did understand the abrevation..lol..welcome 2 the present day..and replying 2 ur ? "why the heck aren't you apart of it?..well i would love 2 explain my ideas on overbought shares on stochastic oscillator,but im not here all night..instead of paying out my thread y dont u research stochastic oscillators? gg..




What language is this?


----------



## nunthewiser (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Speaking of gaps, SPI has a gap to close @ 3770s.
> And if dow tanks tonight, a few majors would form an island reversal.




would that mean a red day in lingo talk?


----------



## nunthewiser (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> The smart question would be "Who's already long?"
> 
> I don't know why you guys are trying to fight the trend. All the doom and gloom has clouded your vision imo. We may test the bottom again in the future but why fight against the current strength?




yes i hold longs as pointed out amongst these pages


not fighting a trend pers^e

merely trading probabilitys

if im  wrong wear a small loss

move on

if im right wear a win

no rocket science merely tossing a weighted coin where i choose the loss of the outcome


----------



## tech/a (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Readig the market isnt that hard.



nomore4s said:


> Why is that bearish?
> 
> Couldn't the fact no volume has come in near or at resistance *mean there is no supply there? Especially since the price is still going up*?




This is true.



ThingyMajiggy said:


> If you are seeing up bars, on less and less volume...how is that no supply?* I would have thought thats no demand*. I would want to see an increase in volume as we approach resistance, to push through it. Down days on small volume would be no supply for me.




This is true.



ThingyMajiggy said:


> If you are seeing up bars, on less and less volume...how is that no supply?* I would have thought thats no demand*. I would want to see an increase in volume as we approach resistance, to push through it. Down days on small volume would be no supply for me.




This is more likely.

*Yet neither is Crystal clear.*

*Click to enlarge*


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech your volume on that XAO chart looks to have mange.


----------



## skc (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> 2nite vs tonight, a few characters there . I guess it looks new age
> 
> In any case, the bulls have been crazy over the last few days. I have seen some long time bears turn bullish this week, which makes me edgy. I am short pretty heavily, and down 100 points so far. The market doesn't seem to want to break the 3085ish level at the moment, but I am worried about the 960 level on the S&P tonight. If it doesn't hold, us bears could be in a little trouble. Several indicators are showing a heck of a divergence coming in. Very similar scenario to mid-June technically. Will be an interesting end to the week.




Personally I found ivant to be quite a good leading indicator. His analysis normally come good about 2-3 days after his post. Will be exiting my longs over the next few days...



ivant said:


> Bear market rallies die in low volume... Just a point irrelevant to the current scenario. I am a little bit skeptic about all the green shoots. *I don't think that the economy is 50% (if we get another push here) better than it was in March. *The only way to know that this is a bull for sure is to test a lower level, and by this at least 800 on the S&P500. The Goldman call seems a bit dodgy to me.




Of course the economy isn't 50% better, but back in March people may have priced things 50% worse than they should have. So today's level might be correct. Who knows?


----------



## tech/a (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hmmm.

Principal still the same though.
Using Just data.EOD.
My Metastock at the office looks more like yours.
Volume still down but less dramatic.

I'll pick up a can of Pal on the way home and give it a bath and de flea!
Thanks for the heads up
Clearly neglect on my part.


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On another note HSI, Kospi and Nasdaq have broken out to new highs and looks to be in a three day hold and consolidate pattern. Ftse and the rest of Europe Taiwan and the SP500 all have quickly moved up to break out levels. Risk currencies are on a runner.

Of course no one will give a toss if global money flows are seeking risk. After all there is indicator divergence................................ F me!!!!!!!


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oh and on yet another note,

Will be interesting to see how the 'market' handles NAB cap raising. Futs look ugly at the moment.


----------



## beamstas (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Why is that bearish?
> 
> Couldn't the fact no volume has come in near or at resistance mean there is no supply there? Especially since the price is still going up?




In VSA, generally, low volume on up moves means "No demand"
But yea, i agree


----------



## Edwood (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> a test of 3890 area would be good




oop - typo, meant 3980 initially


----------



## makingmoney (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

the dow seven straight days in a row with a uptrend...making all xao on stochastic view<---(overbought)I know the views of most threads saying trends ur friend,and you should move with the bulls..but im made a lot of money with my gut feeling..my personal opinion the general markets either being xao/dow/ftse 100 will move sideways in a 2-3wk pattern absorbing or the end year finacial reports and by mid-august onwards i feel that the bulls will come out ..i predict the xao will push through 4100 mid august..and assume the xao will trade above 4400 in september..as for the next few days sencario..im putting my cfds from long to shorts...and will see the market pull back a liitle after today..then movesideways..so as of now im shorting heavily for the next days on the  xao


----------



## Sean K (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> the dow seven straight days in a row with a uptrend...making all xao on stochastic view<---(overbought)I know the views of most threads saying trends ur friend,and you should move with the bulls..but im made a lot of money with my gut feeling..my personal opinion the general markets either being xao/dow/ftse 100 will move sideways in a 2-3wk pattern absorbing or the end year finacial reports and by mid-august onwards i feel that the bulls will come out ..i predict the xao will push through 4100 mid august..and assume the xao will trade above 4400 in september..as for the next few days sencario..im putting my cfds from long to shorts...and will see the market pull back a liitle after today..then movesideways..so as of now im shorting heavily for the next days on the  xao



That's some detailed gut feeling.


----------



## gazelle (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My research indicates The XAO will high into either the 23rd - 24th July 2009 .


----------



## prawn_86 (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gazelle said:


> My research indicates The XAO will high into either the 23rd - 24th July 2009 .




And what research would that be?


----------



## Julia (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prawn_86 said:


> And what research would that be?




I'm also fascinated to know the source of this assertion.


----------



## skc (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gazelle said:


> My research indicates The XAO will *high *into either the 23rd - 24th July 2009 .




Do you know what the XAO is smoking?


----------



## gazelle (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

90 Degrees from 6873 .


----------



## motorway (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Readig the market isnt that hard.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Price Volume & *Time*

Time suggests that it is LESS SUPPLY

Time here is the number of BARS ( DURATION )
In this rally compared to the last

Same Price Range with Less Volume But also  Time.

Ease of Movement ?

Complex( many parts ) Adaptive ( not mechanical ) non linear ( turn on a dime )

means that it is more important to measure output
Than inputs ( you can't )

What is the response
what is the response

rally up
rally down
rally back up BUT QUICKER 
lower volume = Less selling pressure

Now what is response
what is response

test response


NON-LINEARITY
The spreading of a wave is not a complex phenomenon, though, because its propagation
is perfectly regular and predictable, and its strength diminishes as its reach widens.

( describes dead things . but not live things like markets that have MINDS )


Processes in complex systems, on the other hand, are often non-linear: their effects are
not proportional to their causes. When the effects are larger than the causes, we may say
that there is an amplification or positive feedback: initially small perturbations reinforce

themselves so as to become ever more intense. An example is the spread of a disease,
where a single infection may eventually turn into a global pandemic. Another example is
the chain reaction that leads to a nuclear explosion. 


When the effects are smaller than the
causes, there is a dampening or negative feedback: perturbations are gradually
suppressed, until the system returns to a equilibrium state.


*Interactions with positive feedback are very sensitive to their initial conditions: a change
in that condition may be so small that it is intrinsically undetectable, yet result in a
drastically altered outcome.*

It just takes  1 share extra to tip the balance
eg 1 share that is not sold or one share that is

Markets are not a dead thing
can not measure inputs in a way that matters

moving average OBV etc all vacuous
will always mean different things

because of ADAPTIVENESS

Yet we can always measure RESPONSE --OUTPUTS

changes in pattern , symmetry & scale

PRICE VOLUME & *TIME*


motorway


----------



## brty (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I want what he's having.:

brty


----------



## nomore4s (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Price Volume & *Time*
> 
> Time suggests that it is LESS SUPPLY
> 
> ...







> rally up
> rally down
> rally back up BUT QUICKER
> lower volume = Less selling pressure




Motorway, I've never thought about comparing it like that before.


----------



## motorway (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Motorway, I've never thought about comparing it like that before.




With Wyckoff
You are always measuring the output
the response
in terms
of PRICE RANGE  ( on a  bar or a series of bars --> Waves)
Volume ---Activity --> seen as EFFORT

and TIME as DURATION

Very revealing very important is TIME

These three qualify and define

Time --> Does  a rally lasts longer or shorter

Ok next down move in response

say it  is half as long in terms of time
and retraces only quarter of the range back

Bullish

think of different combinations of Time ( as duration )

Say retraces all the way back but takes three times as long ?
And a three day rally then recovers all the ground ?

Very Bullish etc

But Adaptive means
just when you have it worked out it changes
So always what is the response. what is the response



> I want what he's having.
> 
> brty



example-->

You try to lose fat by running  ( running  to burn up the  fat )
So Body(MIND ) decides that you will need more fat ( for what it is being asked to do ) So you end up fatigued and Fatter
as the body(MIND) ADAPTS

Reading interesting material
on how alive things are counter intuitive and do not work like machines
Why you have to measure the outputs to know anything.

Markets ADAPT too

motorway


----------



## wayneL (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas][QUOTE=makingmoney said:


> the dow seven straight days in a row with a uptrend...making all xao on stochastic view<---(overbought)I know the views of most threads saying trends ur friend,and you should move with the bulls..but im made a lot of money with my gut feeling..my personal opinion the general markets either being xao/dow/ftse 100 will move sideways in a 2-3wk pattern absorbing or the end year finacial reports and by mid-august onwards i feel that the bulls will come out ..i predict the xao will push through 4100 mid august..and assume the xao will trade above 4400 in september..as for the next few days sencario..im putting my cfds from long to shorts...and will see the market pull back a liitle after today..then movesideways..so as of now im shorting heavily for the next days on the  xao



That's some detailed gut feeling. [/QUOTE]
Can a gut feeling be written in machine language?


----------



## ivant (22 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Personally I found ivant to be quite a good leading indicator. His analysis normally come good about 2-3 days after his post. Will be exiting my longs over the next few days...
> 
> 
> 
> Of course the economy isn't 50% better, but back in March people may have priced things 50% worse than they should have. So today's level might be correct. Who knows?




Haha or a few weeks at times  I usually end up being about 200 points off on entry. I had 50 minis short at 3905, and a further 50 at 4000. We were just of 4100 the other night. If this turns to be the turning point in the short term, I am off again. Thanks for the faith lol


----------



## gfresh (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Weekly log chart of the XAO below is looking rather too sharp compared to recoveries in the last 30 years.. 

Unless things are going to continue on a v-shaped bounce into a multi-month bullmarket (doubtful!) things are either going to slow down and go nowhere for a while or reverse again. Buying pressure looks to be running thin in general. Can't see much reason to go long from here, doesn't seem to be that many points in it..


----------



## makingmoney (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

lol @ the news on the dow----->not enough info being shared between treasury and tarp...lol(cause they dont want to show tarp how bad it really is...give every investor a warm fuzzy feeling).Just the spin king back @ work sweeping the mess un there gaint carpet.Got 2 love the propaganda king @ work again 2 hide all the bad infomation.


----------



## makingmoney (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

just curious 2 c of any other traders thoughts on the xao & dow on the next few days?I've been very hestitant in trading this week,myself personally i dont want 2 jump aboard on false rallies atm,im hoping 2 c 2-3days of a downtrend 2 get a better perspective of the general market rather than sideway movements.Any thoughts from others traders would be appreciated?


----------



## skyQuake (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> just curious 2 c of any other traders thoughts on the xao & dow on the next few days?I've been very hestitant in trading this week,myself personally i dont want 2 jump aboard on false rallies atm,im hoping 2 c 2-3days of a downtrend 2 get a better perspective of the general market rather than sideway movements.Any thoughts from others traders would be appreciated?




Positional short on a few stocks, but long a few others, fairly neutral. Price action on the majors are fairly mixed. I bet lots of bears have been burnt trying to short this rally and pick the top, and there's gonna be bulls that will try Cut and Reverse and look like a hero... And they will fund the next leg up when they get burnt.


----------



## sammy84 (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> just curious 2 c of any other traders thoughts on the xao & dow on the next few days?I've been very hestitant in trading this week,myself personally i dont want 2 jump aboard on false rallies atm,im hoping 2 c 2-3days of a downtrend 2 get a better perspective of the general market rather than sideway movements.Any thoughts from others traders would be appreciated?




I take it you have a disliking to full stops, or correct grammar in general. Not sure whether this is a new rally in the makings or not. Nevertheless I wouldn't be waiting for 2-3 days of down action. If you would have done so the last rally, you would have missed a fair chunk of it. I'm trading this as a new rally, if I'm wrong money management will help alleviate the loss.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> I take it you have a disliking to full stops, or correct grammar in general.




OMG, maybe English is their second language.


----------



## Sean K (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



>Apocalypto< said:


> OMG, maybe English is their second language.



At least.


----------



## nunthewiser (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

fwiw ....... im still holding short positions on BHP and TLS. neither have hit stops yet ........ TLS i will be switching straight round to a long if it breaks this top 

i also hold various longs as pointed out amongst these pages 

both trades happy to drop like hot potatoes once they hit the eject button mark...

p.s nice work with NAB skyquake


----------



## drsmith (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking at the TED spread I note it is back to pre-August 2007 levels.


----------



## skyQuake (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> fwiw ....... im still holding short positions on BHP and TLS. neither have hit stops yet ........ TLS i will be switching straight round to a long if it breaks this top
> 
> i also hold various longs as pointed out amongst these pages
> 
> ...




Cheers, that cap raising sure helped. Looking for 10%+ falls around here over the nxt week or so as instos unload.

What worries me is that we're so close to resistance on XJO, S&P 500, and FTSE that a brk on any one of them would trigger MOUNTAINS of stops, and probably push through with a false break. THEN everything will tank once all the shorts get flushed out


----------



## ivant (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



drsmith said:


> Looking at the TED spread I note it is back to pre-August 2007 levels.




i am very weak with that side of the market. do you see this as a bullish or bearish thing? It is sitting above 0.31. Doesn't that mean that banks are lending to each other?


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Boy oh boy the Bears are lucky that NAB is spoiling the run. The rest of Asia is up about 3% this week. Maybe some fire works come close


----------



## MRC & Co (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> What worries me is that we're so close to resistance on XJO, S&P 500, and FTSE that a brk on any one of them would trigger MOUNTAINS of stops, and probably push through with a false break. THEN everything will tank once all the shorts get flushed out




That's what I see also.  

BS rounding top looking likely!  

Would also coincide with a break down below the recent couple pivot lows on the US dollar index, again, the pattern there is looking very weak (on the flip side, the Euro is looking mightily ready to pop it's top too).


----------



## ivant (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We will definitely know by end of this week which scenario will play out  I'm in the top is in over the next few months camp, but that is not to say i am right. Out of interest who is expecting this to break and the S&P to move towards 1000?


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> We will definitely know by end of this week which scenario will play out  I'm in the top is in over the next few months camp, but that is not to say i am right. Out of interest who is expecting this to break and the S&P to move towards 1000?




Why? Why can't it just chop around and back fill a little like markets spend 99% of the time doing?


----------



## ivant (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Why? Why can't it just chop around and back fill a little like markets spend 99% of the time doing?




Lol 99% of the time during normal markets. Not sure about it doing that 99% of the time since July 07 . Obviously it can chop around, however I find that highly unlikely. Traders are still edgy about the direction, and you need to have a bull market scenario for this to chop around. Although if your definition of chop is something like the second derivative that we all talk about, and you see 300-400 point moves as normal (which seems to be the case these days) then obviously we are talking about the same thing from different angles


----------



## white_goodman (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

out of all the ASX, US and London Stocks I track I'm only geting short signals for what its worth...

personally their will be another down leg atleast before this is over. Also the correlation between the US stock market and US currency I can see being broken in the near future (ie stockmarket down but USD down aswell)


----------



## Trembling Hand (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The weekly % movements have been nothing extraordinary for the last 4 months - EXCEPT last week and the breakout weeks in March. And the stats weigh towards consolidation after those strong weeks yet everyone calls for pullbacks because it overbought!! Its seems that again people think indicators _*work*_ but don't know how they have actually acted in the past. 


Markets push and pull to various 50% levels. Its a good bet when people start calling for a pull back we get 50% of what people expect. :

Just look at the poor soles in the gold thread, always getting 50% pushes and pullbacks yet they still wait. :

(thou no doult I will wake to a god almighty crash tomorrow)


----------



## Real1ty (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> Obviously it can chop around, however I find that highly unlikely. *Traders are still edgy about the direction*, and you need to have a *bull market scenario* for this to chop around.




I would have thought "traders being edgy about the direction" is why it would chop around, not a "bull market scenario"

FWIW i'm sticking with the trend and i think we are going to *grind* higher.

Time will tell....


----------



## ivant (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> out of all the ASX, US and London Stocks I track I'm only geting short signals for what its worth...
> 
> personally their will be another down leg atleast before this is over. Also the correlation between the US stock market and US currency I can see being broken in the near future (ie stockmarket down but USD down aswell)




Out of interest, what do you get signals based on? S/R levels, overbought/sold conditions, or some other form? Stocks seem to be around upper parts of their channels that i look at, as well as some overbought conditions. would be interesting to see how other people see it at the moment.



Trembling Hand said:


> The weekly % movements have been nothing extraordinary for the last 4 months - EXCEPT last week and the breakout weeks in March. And the stats weigh towards consolidation after those strong weeks yet everyone calls for pullbacks because it overbought!! Its seems that again people think indicators _*work*_ but don't know how they have actually acted in the past.
> 
> 
> Markets push and pull to various 50% levels. Its a good bet when people start calling for a pull back we get 50% of what people expect. :
> ...




I think you are on the money there about how people use their indicators. I use them at crucial points, for example, if a market is heavily overbought at a major resistance level. That usually proves to be a good base for a move in the opposite direction. In terms of weekly moves, they have been odd. I was referring more to the range in which equities are moving. We have had many moves where the week ended close to flat, but the range was very wide, i.e. 5-7%. Actually I should stop being lazy and do a histogram of the weekly ranges tomorrow, if I don't forget.  



Real1ty said:


> I would have thought "traders being edgy about the direction" is why it would chop around, not a "bull market scenario"
> 
> FWIW i'm sticking with the trend and i think we are going to *grind* higher.
> 
> Time will tell....




I have been lacking the ability to clearly express myself over the last week or so lol, sorry . I don't think we are in a bull market at all. In fact I still see the 40% move as a bear market rally. I think my side of the fence is having less and less followers, and if the dreaded October/November doesn't play out, then most of us will be flooding the bull market side. I think markets chop around so much for three reasons: a) uncertainty, as you suggested, b) increased amount of technical traders with very different views about the same scenarios, c) increased amount of bots being ran by traders and institutions. I don't know if i have added something that doesn't have an impact, nor do I know if I have left anything out. On a side note, don't you think we could see a spike if we break the range?


----------



## ivant (23 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Speaking of the devil, we have broken 960...


----------



## nunthewiser (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

looks like another set of auto stops  gunna get popped b4 i wake in the morning again ........


oh well .. ya get that 

intresting stuff


----------



## nomore4s (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> Speaking of the devil, we have broken 960...




Make that 970 & 9000.

Can it hold onto the gains though?


----------



## Real1ty (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> I have been lacking the ability to clearly express myself over the last week or so lol, sorry . I don't think we are in a bull market at all. In fact I still see the 40% move as a bear market rally. I think my side of the fence is having less and less followers, and if the dreaded October/November doesn't play out, then most of us will be flooding the bull market side. I think markets chop around so much for three reasons: a) uncertainty, as you suggested, b) increased amount of technical traders with very different views about the same scenarios, c) increased amount of bots being ran by traders and institutions. I don't know if i have added something that doesn't have an impact, nor do I know if I have left anything out. On a side note, don't you think we could see a spike if we break the range?




It's not always easy to get accross what you mean in writing and things can also be taken the wrong way.

lol, it's a bit hard for me to answer your question about the spike now, as it has already spiked 

I'm not really big on predictions as i just follow trends but my guess, as i posted elsewhere before when the S&P was up by about 2 points, is that i think we will grind higher and to be honest i now think we are in a new bull market and it will be a V.

Of course i am realistic enough to know not only may i be wrong but we are likely to have some testing times along the way.

As always time will tell.

Edit: Woah up 19.00 on the S&P, noice!!!!!


----------



## nomore4s (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Some patterns, just for interests sake. I'm probably neutral atm with a slight bullish bias. Needs to break 4100 with some conviction to make me bullish till around 4300-4600, prices back under 3900 could mean more sideways action, under 3700 and I'm bearish.
> 
> Daily chart 1st & Weekly chart 2nd.




All looking good atm - especially on the weekly chart.

I'm a bit surprised more EWers haven't been looking for a 3 wave countertrend before going lower on the weekly chart - or maybe they have I haven't noticed.

I still favouring the long term pattern I posted earlier.


----------



## MRC & Co (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> That's what I see also.
> 
> BS rounding top looking likely!




There is the final point put in for the BS rounding top pattern Quakey boy, if so, we should be sitting right near the highs as I type this........


----------



## ivant (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> There is the final point put in for the BS rounding top pattern Quakey boy, if so, we should be sitting right near the highs as I type this........




Hmm, I hope you are right  What is a BS rounding top pattern. I only know one popular meaning of BS and thats bullsh*t


----------



## ivant (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> It's not always easy to get accross what you mean in writing and things can also be taken the wrong way.
> 
> lol, it's a bit hard for me to answer your question about the spike now, as it has already spiked
> 
> ...




Haha, I guess my question is a little difficult to answer as it started spiking as I was posting this . You are correct, it is often difficult to get meaning exactly, especially if the person typing has grammar issues as we have seen on this post haha. Regardless of whether spx goes to a 1000 or not, I think it still may be a little early to call a V shaped recovery. But you are right on the money there, only time will tell


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> I think you are on the money there about how people use their indicators. I use them at crucial points, for example, if a market is heavily overbought at a major resistance level. That usually proves to be a good base for a move in the opposite direction.



Really? My investigations have shown that after such overbought condition the bears have no edge. In fact for the short term overbought is usually followed by more momentum. Like I ranted about on Monday,

http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2009/07/good-time-to-be-bearish.html





ivant said:


> In terms of weekly moves, they have been odd. I was referring more to the range in which equities are moving. We have had many moves where the week ended close to flat, but the range was very wide, i.e. 5-7%. Actually I should stop being lazy and do a histogram of the weekly ranges tomorrow, if I don't forget.





We have only had a over 5% -7% 4 times since April. The average weekly range since then is 4.10%. That's not odd. As for the large range and finishing flat since the March lows we have only had 3 week, out of 19, were the open and close is within 1%of each other. all the others correlate reasonably well with the High/Low range.


----------



## skyQuake (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> There is the final point put in for the BS rounding top pattern Quakey boy, if so, we should be sitting right near the highs as I type this........




Haha indeed! S&P500 now 10pts off its highs after ur post. Hope u shorted it 



ivant said:


> Hmm, I hope you are right  What is a BS rounding top pattern. I only know one popular meaning of BS and thats bullsh*t




Yup, the bullsh*t rounding top. They're supposed to be topping patterns, beauty is they're very easy to get into giving punters plenty of time to get short, before a squeeze to new highs kills all the bears.
Works really well on the SPI and HSI intraday charts, however I have never really looked at one on the daily... Will have to do some work on that today.

Whats really interesting is on the S&P500, We have a daily BS rounding top (had a late squeeze) and also on the 1hr charts (with the bust through 960).

Similar on the SPI (see charts).

I'd be expecting the bears to capitulate today. As all reasons to short are dead and buried. And in motorway's words, market participant's opinions are reaching _consensus_ which is where the turning points are.

Cheers


----------



## ivant (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Really? My investigations have shown that after such overbought condition the bears have no edge. In fact for the short term overbought is usually followed by more momentum. Like I ranted about on Monday,
> 
> http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2009/07/good-time-to-be-bearish.html
> 
> ...




Lol well obviously I was wrong about the weekly volatility. Although it is rather logical, because we have had a pretty steady move in the one direction. And then May was dead. June was also quiet. In terms of overbought/oversold, RSI shows a lot of signals, a lot more than Chande's, which is why I use Chande's. Also I have a look at the daily and Weekly MACD,and try not to go short during an overbought condition when the market is in a clear uptrend (i lost many teeth in the punchup during this attempt). So it all depends how you use it I guess. I've also found that overbought/sold conditions don't work too well on the US indices, while do rather well at ours. Sometimes our index comes up as overbought 100-150 points before a resistance level, which obviously doesn't do too well, as you usually end up a good 100-150 points in the red before you even started.



skyQuake said:


> Haha indeed! S&P500 now 10pts off its highs after ur post. Hope u shorted it
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Wow that's brilliant. Let's see what happens tonight. What is your prediction? I am assuming it needs to break the 960 today? If it closes below say 958 do you think this will take a bear move into mid-late august? Or should we be waiting for a retest of the high?


----------



## CamKawa (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As I posted as few pages ago, this rally has falling volume.




However AMP sees the exact opposite...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Australian Stocks to Beat Bonds as Bull Market Begins

Stocks have rallied this year amid rising volume and increases in the number of shares gaining, known as breadth, said Nader Naeimi, who helps manage the group’s diversified funds in Sydney. AMP Capital is a unit of Australia’s biggest provider of pension plans. 

“We’re seeing a classic reversal pattern where a downtrend is starting to give way to an uptrend,” said Naeimi, adding such cycles typically lasted two to three years. “The latest rallies have strong breadth and volume, while the dips increasingly lack conviction. We’ll still have pullbacks but the broader trend from here will be upwards.” 

and AMP goes on to say

“A cyclical bull market is being born which could easily see the market approach its 2007 highs,” said Naeimi, who said in a Bloomberg TV interview in April that the bear market in global stocks had ended. “Any weakness should be seen as a buying opportunity.”
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Is this the birth of a new bull market or is AMP just full of bull? If I only had $95 bill.


----------



## MRC & Co (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

lol, can't half tell we learnt to trade next to eachother Quake!

Think you covered it all, by I would add the underlying psychology is simply that momentum is slowing and price looks ready to rollover on itself.  However, as quite a few do have time to position short, 'they' push it higher to get better fills themselves on the short side before taking it down.

I am a bit concerned however, as I would like to see higher volume on the spike (but the fact that it is summer in Europe/US has me worried).

As far as consensus, that is very true, I believe Credit Suisse was pretty much the last bank to upgrade it's view on the market to a bullish stance.

Ultimately though, I didn't get short.  On this odd occassion, I am actually waiting for confirmation as there is a really odd lack of selling pressure (no effort even required to push it through the previous resistance high).  I.e. when price was flirting with the high for those 48 odd hours, I was almost certain we would break through, as no selling pressure was coming online INFRONT of the level.  From my experience on order flow, when this happens, most of the time, the break up through is a high probability play.  

The fact that I got farked on oil being squeezed down and chopped around for 12 minutes after the US smashed the high on what was clearly not a false break, leaves a bitter taste in my mouth!!!!!!

BTW, is ASF slow as sh*t these days or is it just my comp?


----------



## ivant (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> lol, can't half tell we learnt to trade next to eachother Quake!
> 
> Think you covered it all, by I would add the underlying psychology is simply that momentum is slowing and price looks ready to rollover on itself.  However, as quite a few do have time to position short, 'they' push it higher to get better fills themselves on the short side before taking it down.
> 
> ...




As you know i am heavily short atm, but i am a little worried about the lack of selling pressure at these highs. Rarely do I get worried about my positions. About 3 times in my life. To be honest, this is not a normal situation. We are having platypus scenarios all the time, which is making this scenario very difficult to deal with, much like all the others over the last few months. Irregular is the normal it seems. Eg, crude oil's illogical moves. Up down then up again, then down and up, and constantly overshooting the logical levels. Or maybe I just need a break and go to the bahamas or cayman islands and rest for a few months. lol.


----------



## wonderrman (24 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Also the correlation between the US stock market and US currency I can see being broken in the near future (ie stockmarket down but USD down aswell)




Could I ask why you would suggest this ... generally ...

usd appreciate, tightening of liquidity, equity markets decrease

usd depreciate liquidity is flowing into equities.

The relationship is always to the opposite, why would this change? and where would the money flow to instead?

simple line charts of usd and sp500 below.

wonder.


----------



## MRC & Co (25 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wonderrman said:


> Could I ask why you would suggest this ... generally ...
> 
> usd appreciate, tightening of liquidity, equity markets decrease
> 
> ...




If there was a fast breakdown in USD, overcapacity, further risk aversion, you could see a situation of low rates (Reserve set rates), large deficit, falling dollar too rapid to be a positive for export driven growth and hence, a breakdown in the correlation.  With both a falling USD and falling equities.  

Of course, this would be a mammoth breakdown, would probably push yields far too high (steepening of the curve) with a weak UST market, and a push up in gold and perhaps the Asian region (the decoupling everyone is talking of).  

I doubt we will get there (considering Europe and Japan are no better off), but there is a chance, particularly in light of a 2nd stimulus package in the pipeline (anyone on this early if it does play out, could be paid off big time, with the potential to profit on both sides of traditional spreads)....


----------



## skyQuake (25 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ivant - I'm scaling into this trade with oppies as its a this-could-totally-blow-up in-my-face-if-I'm-wrong type of trade. 
SPI's high close was ideal, S&P and FTSE should either hold here or rally no more than 1 day before declining. Chop for a few days invalidates the pattern.

As for USD, the dollar index getting to crucial levels, but keeps making lower highs. Gold presently rallying; watching with great interest.


----------



## wonderrman (25 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Of course, this would be a mammoth breakdown, would probably push yields far too high (steepening of the curve) with a weak UST market, and a push up in gold and perhaps the Asian region (the decoupling everyone is talking of).
> .




Thank you MRC, thought the bloke was talking bout the near time.

I don't see this happening within the next 12 to 18 months.

within 10 years this could be a big possibility. 

USD will be worthless one day, just  a matter of time ....

short on time so will further comment later.

enjoy the w.e

w.


----------



## MRC & Co (25 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wonderrman said:


> Thank you MRC, thought the bloke was talking bout the near time.
> 
> I don't see this happening within the next 12 to 18 months.
> 
> ...




No problems.

The thing is, this would only take a shift in sentiment towards Asia, and sentiment can shift in the blink of an eye (who knows with China creating their own asset price bubble, but this may go on for years as we know bubbles are generally far more resilient than expected), and a shift away from the US as a 'safe haven'.  

Correlation breakdowns will often not play out, but if they do, you know clearly what the market (sentiment) is focusing on (most important part of trading IMO) and hence, it becomes easier to trade with a bias and know what you are looking for to potentially create a new correlation.  This is my understanding and experience.  

Though I'm not convinced on this argument that the USD will become worthless.  If so, what about JPY, GBP, EUR?  They will all suffer the same fate in that scenario.


----------



## haunting (26 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wonderrman said:


> usd appreciate, tightening of liquidity, equity markets decrease
> 
> usd depreciate liquidity is flowing into equities.
> 
> The relationship is always to the opposite, why would this change? and where would the money flow to instead?




** interesting charts. Here's my pet conspiracy theory -  a low US$ would also translate into a higher oil price (currently about $68) which could be a damper to a fragile recovering economy, hence it is in everyone's interest, ie, among the major recessionary economies to see an oil price decline, and the easiest way to achieve it is to drive up the US$. If the US$ were to rebound, it is likely to see the equity market falling back. I suspect the market is gearing up for this eventuality, see this link on short interest in NASDAQ.


----------



## CamKawa (26 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



haunting said:


> ** interesting charts. Here's my pet conspiracy theory - a low US$ would also translate into a higher oil price (currently about $68) which could be a damper to a fragile recovering economy, hence it is in everyone's interest, ie, among the major recessionary economies to see an oil price decline, and the easiest way to achieve it is to drive up the US$. If the US$ were to rebound, it is likely to see the equity market falling back. I suspect the market is gearing up for this eventuality, see this link on short interest in NASDAQ.



I wouldn't be surprised if the US was supporting oil at about the $60 mark. Higher oil prices -> higher inflation. The higher the inflation rate the lower existing debt becomes. Deflation on the other hand is a nightmare.


----------



## Trembling Hand (26 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> As you know i am heavily short atm, but i am a little worried about the lack of selling pressure at these highs. Rarely do I get worried about my positions. About 3 times in my life. To be honest, this is not a normal situation. We are having platypus scenarios all the time, which is making this scenario very difficult to deal with, much like all the others over the last few months. Irregular is the normal it seems. Eg, crude oil's illogical moves. Up down then up again, then down and up, and constantly overshooting the logical levels.






> this is not a normal situation.




Thats one way of looking at it.

Or 

You could throw away the idea that the markets are not acting "normally" and start at the sensible assumption that ALL traders will become out of sync with the market action and therefore to protect yourself from the inevitable you SHOULD start using correct MM and position sizing.

Are you not $85,000 offside on 1 trade - about 25% of capital?


----------



## MRC & Co (26 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Two more interesting points haunting and CamKawa, cheers.

85k offside on 1 trade, sheeeesh.  That would be painful!


----------



## Aussiest (26 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> 85k offside on 1 trade, sheeeesh.  That would be painful!




The thing is Ivan, what are you going to do if the SPI moves up another 200 points? That would be another $100k you'd be out.


----------



## ivant (26 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Haha woot woot, we are back to discussing me again . I thought we were discussing XAO and slightly touching on the economy? Interesting to see how the GDP numbers come out on the 31st...


----------



## Aussiest (26 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nahh, we're just concerned about you Ivan! :

I'm personally worried as i have shorts . Haha, we'll see what happens tomorrow and more importantly Tuesday and Wednesday, because if it builds momentum, it could rally up > 4200. But then again, you've never been wrong, just a few days or weeks ahead of your time, lol.


----------



## beamstas (26 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Gambling is a little different to trading, Ivan. You claim on your blg that you are a professional trader, but you throw positions around like a cowboy.

You are taking a total beginners attitude, that is, instead of closing out of a trade and accepting a small loss, you wait and wait until the trade turns around.

What will you do if the SPI continues upwards and it wipes out your whole account?

I'm not having a go at you, im concerned about you. You take on alot of risk for a big reward, but one day that reward just won't be there and you'll find yourself without any capital.

Just take it easy, and be careful. If im right you're only young, like me. Use compounding to grow your capital, not excessive risk. 

Im certain that one day you'll be a great trader, you seem to make some very good calls. Just take it easy on the risk side of things..

Regards
Brad


----------



## Aussiest (26 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> Gambling is a little different to trading, Ivan. You claim on your blg that you are a professional trader, but you throw positions around like a cowboy.
> 
> You are taking a total beginners attitude, that is, instead of closing out of a trade and accepting a small loss, you wait and wait until the trade turns around.
> 
> ...




This is actually one of the best posts i have read on ASF


----------



## johnnyg (26 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think one of the best in regards to Ivant was by T/H. And in regards to taking 350K out and putting it aside (savings/whatever) and seeing if he could repeat the process with the 50K he would use for trading.


----------



## nomore4s (26 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiest said:


> But then again, you've never been wrong, just a few days or weeks ahead of your time, lol.




What's the difference in this game?

Ivant has just been using his large capital base to continue to average into the trades and hold them open long enough to come back far enough to reduce his loses or produce a winner. Dangerous game imo. Virtually taking on unlimited risk hoping for another big winner but market conditions and sentiment have changed substantially from the market that produced his huge winner.


----------



## tech/a (27 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> What's the difference in this game?
> 
> Ivant has just been using his large capital base to continue to average into the trades and hold them open long enough to come back far enough to reduce his loses or produce a winner. Dangerous game imo. Virtually taking on unlimited risk hoping for another big winner but market conditions and sentiment have changed substantially from the market that produced his huge winner.





If thats the case he would be well advised to have a good look at Duc's exercise back a few years ago which focused on similar BUT without averaging down.
Had he done so he would have failed even *more* spectacularly!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2829


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Aussie casino, oh sorry, market is building up a head of steam here. Just about everything is Kermit to start the week. A push above todays highs over the next couple of days will create a hook higher pattern.

That will have the punters that like chasing squiggly lines very jumping on the long side. even on a decent pull back.


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Squishy squeeze today.

Stronger for longer anyone??


----------



## Whiskers (28 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Stronger for longer anyone??




Yep.

:hide:


----------



## nunthewiser (28 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Squishy squeeze today.
> 
> Stronger for longer anyone??




has entered numerous short positions in the last hour

but hey with my track record of last week i wouldnt be listening to me


----------



## skyQuake (28 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Gonna short some NAB, BSL, and a few others at close today 

Glutton for punishment


----------



## nunthewiser (28 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

cba , bhp , xjo here.... already entered .... got a lil excited on the spike ..

probably close will provide nicer entrys all round

who knows ......not i


----------



## MRC & Co (28 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> has entered numerous short positions in the last hour
> 
> but hey with my track record of last week i wouldnt be listening to me




Yeh, I've been flipping all over the shop lately.  Was bearish at 950, bullish again when we came back up through 900, bearish back at 935, bullish again at 945 and just now I have become bearish again. 

Home sales last night saw the usual round of buying (on better than expected news), but once it settled, it got sold off.  Obviously some profit taking in there.  Though closed up near the high again which I kind of expected.  Though, it was the first sign of weekness I have seen as far as the psychology behind the order flow of late.  

Euro + USD (+ meeting with China) + Oil are all at critical junktures.  My thoughts are we either see a slight pullback in all, before heading higher (EUR, Oil + Equities) once more, or we see a real sharp sell off (also have positive bond auctions lately, got to see how the rest of this record breaking wk plays out, which don't seem to be bringing down yields, could cause another tipping point: the high yields + positive auctions that is).


----------



## makingmoney (28 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

with only 2hrs and 30mins to go before the dow opening and the dow futures pointing downward,plus with infomation on Boa closing 10% of it's branches,and then add this week with most of the largest corporate data due for end of year results,im hoping for a downturn in the market.


----------



## MR. (28 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

View attachment aord 27-7-09 8.bmp


Here's my pretty picture. Drawn with the best of charting tools. 
Everyone else is having such great visions? 

Don't lose it, keep it close by, refer to it now and then and whatever you do don't show it to anyone. Shhhhh


----------



## makingmoney (28 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

dow futures pointing downward and expanding in contracts quickly...."excellent smithers"


----------



## sammy84 (28 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Stronger for longer anyone??




Yes


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> dow futures pointing downward and expanding in contracts quickly




What does "expanding in contracts quickly" mean?


----------



## Nyden (29 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> dow futures pointing downward and expanding in contracts quickly...."excellent smithers"




Why don't you stop trying to play what you *hope* will happen, and instead play what *actually is*. The market's in an uptrend, get over it


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Why don't you stop trying to play what you *hope* will happen, and instead play what *actually is*. The market's in an uptrend, get over it




Ain't nothing wrong with playing what you think will happened rather than expecting recent history to repeat itself.

Confirmation is for trading books and science.


----------



## nunthewiser (29 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Ain't nothing wrong with playing what you think will happened rather than expecting recent history to repeat its self.
> 
> Confirmation is for trading books and science.





thankyou

i for one am not a subscriber to all these cliche's and text book lectures that get forced upon me here 

different ppl , different strategys 

each to there own regardless of right or wrong in the outcome of the trade 

its how the trade is managed is what counts at the end


----------



## Nyden (29 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Ain't nothing wrong with playing what you think will happened rather than expecting recent history to repeat its self.
> 
> Confirmation is for trading books and science.




Providing one's thinking is actually based on something credible, as opposed to moneymakers apparent hope based on sour grapes.

He sits there late at night, watching the futures - and getting excited at any sort of weakness. Really, enough said. Different strokes, for different folks - you are right Nun, but I just get frustrated at what I see as blatant gambling. I could be wrong though, and moneymaker could be some kind of genius :


----------



## surfziggy (29 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm thinking continued uptrend with any pullbacks being bought right up, because people/funds are peed off they already missed the March rally.

I went short for about a day a week or so ago and promptly got my ass handed to me on a plate.

TremblingHand - What do you think is going to happen?


----------



## surfziggy (29 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

http://www.tickerville.com/index.php/site/comments/charts_continue_to_set_up/


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I wouldn't totally exclude a straight line up play .... 

But if I had to put my money on it as I pointed out last week its been clear that funds throughout the world have been into risk taking mode but getting late in the run. So I would say as long as we stay above the weekly opens we are moving higher. 


As for the 'overbought' forget about it. :


----------



## Sean K (29 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hooly dooly!!

Almost 500,000 views.


----------



## johnnyg (29 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some of my own ramblings.


----------



## makingmoney (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Providing one's thinking is actually based on something credible, as opposed to moneymakers apparent hope based on sour grapes.
> 
> He sits there late at night, watching the futures - and getting excited at any sort of weakness. Really, enough said. Different strokes, for different folks - you are right Nun, but I just get frustrated at what I see as blatant gambling. I could be wrong though, and moneymaker could be some kind of genius :




Well it's easy to target a thread,Actually shows me your intelligence quotient is quite low,your very arrogant.Infact instead next time try to read a post respects the person's thoughts,and maybe comment on why you think the post is wrong.Maybe with this type of methodical thinking maybe people will actually learn about the topic of the thread.
Im no genius,but make a healthy income from trading,My past posts have been my personal analysis of the general market.As for your last post on the market is ralling..lol<---blind freddy could tell you that.Actually making money on the dips in the cycle is another thing all together.Actually one question before i go,Do you actually trade?And if so good luck on the market!Cause any trader on the market right now knows the scholastic view is way overbought.Maybe your view is a one way direction up,my view is the dow still has a long way to go with incoming end of year results,And with the information i have at hand there could be a change in sediment.Anyway enough said


----------



## prawn_86 (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> Cause any trader on the market right now knows the *scholastic* view is way overbought .... at hand there could be a change in *sediment*.





So the academic scholars have been buying a lot of stocks lately?

And the pump filters must be getting changed to remove all that sediment?

Surely you mean stochastic and sentiment??


And in the future please refrain from making personal attacks on members or your posts will be removed. (That goes for all posters)


----------



## skyQuake (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prawn_86 said:


> So the *academic scholars have been buying* a lot of stocks lately?




SELL!


----------



## wayneL (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



makingmoney said:


> Well it's easy to target a thread._Actually, it shows me your intelligence quotient is quite low;_you're very arrogant._In_fact, next time try to read a post respects the person's thoughts instead_and maybe comment on why you think the post is wrong._Maybe with this type of methodical thinking <removed> people will actually learn about the topic of the thread.
> 
> I'm no genius,_but make a healthy income from trading._My past posts have been my personal analysis of the general market._As for your last post on the market is rallying..._(lol<---blind freddy could tell you that)._Actually making money on the dips in the cycle is another thing all together.
> 
> Actually one question before I go._Do you actually trade?_And if so, good luck on the market!_Because any trader on the market right now knows the scholastic view is way overbought._Maybe your view is a one way direction -  up._My view is the Dow still has a long way to go with incoming end of year results_and with the information I have at hand, there could be a change in sediment (<sic LOLOL)._Anyway enough said.




Corrected so people can actually read it.


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Corrected so people can actually read it.



Making money, is actually two words as well.


----------



## wayneL (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Making money, is actually two words as well.




There is only so much one man can do.


----------



## tech/a (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Surely you mean stochastic and sentiment??




That is an absolute CLASSIC.

In stretchers.
Having Fart Hailure.


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Having Fart Hailure.



Understandable for someone of your age tech.

breath, breath ....

Have 000 on speed dial just in case.


----------



## vincent191 (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I went in short this week and I am licking my wounds. Intra-day rallies have wiped me out real quick.
I wonder how much longer or higher the market can go. It has been a dream run upwards. Anyone agree that we are overdue for a downward correction?


----------



## Aussiest (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vincent191 said:


> It has been a dream run upwards. Anyone agree that we are overdue for a downward correction?




I think we just had it over the last two days. In all seriousness, i'm not sure. This thing looks like it's never going to stop. If Aussie results exceed expectations, we could be in for a further rise of 200 points


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



vincent191 said:


> I went in short this week and I am licking my wounds. Intra-day rallies have wiped me out real quick.
> I wonder how much longer or higher the market can go. It has been a dream run upwards. Anyone agree that we are overdue for a downward correction?



Overdue for a significant correction (or continuation of the correction according to EW) for some time. 

V shape correction is a dirty word. Um, two words. But geesh! 

Other bear market bounces have been 20-30% so still chance of a continuation of the downward-sideways move.

With so much paper money thrown at this however, we're in unprecedented territory. Just depends how that debt is sorted out perhaps..


----------



## nunthewiser (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

fwiw i have added to bhp and cba short 

bhp in profit roughly+ 3.5%

cba losing roughly - 2%

cba short including todays entry will be stopped out imminently on a strong break of todays high


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> fwiw i have added to bhp and cba short



Good, waiting for another opportunity to buy these. Lets hope they tank some way. BHP back to $27 and CBA to $30 would be great.


----------



## skyQuake (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Good, waiting for another opportunity to buy these. Lets hope they tank some way. BHP back to $27 and CBA to $30 would be great.




Problem is everyone is thinking along those lines 

Which means:

a) It will never get there (not in the nxt 5 years)
b) It will get there, everyone will buy, and it'll continue tanking and everyone gets stopped out.


----------



## nunthewiser (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Good, waiting for another opportunity to buy these. Lets hope they tank some way. BHP back to $27 and CBA to $30 would be great.





LOL on a somewhat biased viewpoint i totally agree 

crashnburn ya suckers! 

i could always be wrong also and take a smack in the chops for being so cheeky


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> cba short including todays entry will be stopped out imminently on a strong break of todays high




POP!!

:shoot::bunny: :badass:


----------



## gfresh (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL.. don't think he was the only one either..

These shorts are good feedstock for the bulls, keep it up.


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL on a somewhat biased viewpoint i totally agree
> 
> crashnburn ya suckers!
> 
> i could always be wrong also and take a smack in the chops for being so cheeky



Oh dear, 

Some cash earning 2% or something, while the market goes balistic.

Looking forward to the EW explanation...


----------



## skyQuake (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Option/warrant expiry. Warrant MMs have barrier levels to take out. Oppie MMs have books to square off. No reason to short today!


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Option/warrant expiry. Warrant MMs have barrier levels to take out. Oppie MMs have books to square off. No reason to short today!




Yep, but "normally" thats 1-2 days before exp. I guess they squared up longs yesterday, today they are blowing puts


----------



## nunthewiser (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> POP!!
> 
> :shoot::bunny: :badass:




yep


----------



## skyQuake (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yep, but "normally" thats 1-2 days before exp. I guess they squared up longs yesterday, today they are blowing puts




Used to short on close of oppie expiry on the premise that 'oh they're running it up cause of expiry'

And proceed to get belted the next day when it runs another 4 or 5% 

Post market SPI should be interesting today


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Used to short on close of oppie expiry on the premise that 'oh they're running it up cause of expiry'
> 
> And proceed to get belted the next day when it runs another 4 or 5%
> 
> Post market SPI should be interesting today




Funny you say that but back in the good old days, 2007. 5 out of my best 10 trading days came from 1 to 2 days or even the day of exp. Was a very crude bot turned on the SPI. She would just run all day.

But not any more.


----------



## Frank D (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Oh dear,
> 
> Some cash earning 2% or something, while the market goes balistic.
> 
> Looking forward to the EW explanation...




Kennas,

What happened? you used to be such a 'bull' and your sitting in Cash.

Why would you bother with EW when you don't even use it?


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Frank D said:


> Kennas,
> 
> What happened? you used to be such a 'bull' and your sitting in Cash.
> 
> Why would you bother with EW when you don't even use it?



EW has proved a distraction.


----------



## RayG (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> EW has proved a distraction.




scholastic sediment?  ... 

TA, in all it's forms is based (more or less) on patterns, it seems that some new patterns are forming should provide good fodder for future TA.

My take on the rally, (and what I've heard in the media), is that a lot of people were caught unawares by the bounce in March, and subsequent rally, and are now all rushing to get on the train before it leaves the station.  

Regards
Ray


----------



## Aussiest (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> My take on the rally, (and what I've heard in the media), is that a lot of people were caught unawares by the bounce in March, and subsequent rally, and are now all rushing to get on the train before it leaves the station.




Well, the next 2 Qtrs of data in Australia will be interesting, especially unemployment.


----------



## MR. (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Looking forward to the EW explanation...




LOL, give em a break! They're doin their best!  Got to be hard when ya keep lookin in the past. 

Ya not lettin EW distract ya again?:nono: 



RayG said:


> My take on the rally, (and what I've heard in the media), is that a lot of people were caught unawares by the bounce in March, and subsequent rally, and are now all rushing to get on the train before it leaves the station.




Shhhh (I think it's already left) but don't tell anyone..... 
(I'm not ready yet.)


----------



## MrBurns (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think it will be reversing back through the station before long.


----------



## MR. (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> I think it will be reversing back through the station before long.




No doubt. Shhhh


----------



## MrBurns (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well I damn well hope so my strategy of sitting back and doing nothing is starting to look pretty sick about now.


----------



## MR. (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Well I damn well hope so my strategy of sitting back and doing nothing is starting to look pretty sick about now.




Well I don't know about that last EW chart on the 21/7. But return it will some.  Position yourself to profit from the direction you think the market or whatever should be going. At least you'll totally accept the decision.

However, do take a look at the index from a bit of a distance (5 years) or so. She does look like she's still a bit low!   


Don't take advise from me, lol, not that ya would.


----------



## Real1ty (30 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> I think it will be reversing back through the station before long.




S&P up 16 points currently.

I hope you're not holding your breath.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sheeeesus!!!

I can smell blood in the streets. 

Bears blood. SPI futs at 4215.


----------



## wayneL (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Sheeeesus!!!
> 
> I can smell blood in the streets.
> 
> Bears blood. SPI futs at 4215.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Arh I gotta go to bed. I'm obviously just having a bad dream. This thingo cannot keep going up. I'm sure after a good nights sleep we will be back at 3800.


----------



## MrBurns (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> S&P up 16 points currently.
> 
> I hope you're not holding your breath.




Maybe if I can just hold this till Monday...............


----------



## skyQuake (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hope Ivant has closed some shorts already 

I heard there will be more bank buying today. Stay long!


----------



## Aussiest (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting thing though, DOW up around 160 for most of session, but ended on 83.74, which indicates some selling pressure to me. Could we be reaching a short term top?


----------



## Sunder (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiest said:


> Interesting thing though, DOW up around 160 for most of session, but ended on 83.74, which indicates some selling pressure to me. Could we be reaching a short term top?




Selling pressure, or profit taking?


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Hope Ivant has closed some shorts already
> 
> I heard there will be more bank buying today. Stay long!




Only $115,750 off side 

nice trade


----------



## Aussiest (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Only $115,750 off side




That's a decent deposit on a house . 

Good distinction Sunder, you're probably right


----------



## beamstas (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Oh dear,
> 
> Some cash earning 2% or something, while the market goes balistic.
> 
> Looking forward to the EW explanation...




What makes you think EW can predict the future?


----------



## Sean K (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> What makes you think EW can predict the future?



I didn't actually say that beamstas. 

I'm looking forward to the revised retrospective count. The expanding triangle W4 isn't looking good. 

It's something more complex.


----------



## beamstas (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I didn't actually say that beamstas.
> 
> I'm looking forward to the revised retrospective count. The expanding triangle W4 isn't looking good.
> 
> It's something more complex.




How does knowing what the current count is help you make money? The market leads eliott wave, not the other way around. 

As Radge said on the other thread, he was bearish, but is still long because that's what the market is currently presenting.

Just get on the right side of the market and let it do what it wants, currently the right side is long and that's where i've been for 2 weeks.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think someone is missing the irony in Kennas comments.


----------



## beamstas (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Can i get a link to this expanding triangle W4 that is being spoken of? I must have missed it


----------



## Sean K (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> How does knowing what the current count is help you make money?



Good question, the Ellioticians will need to answer that.



beamstas said:


> Can i get a link to this expanding triangle W4 that is being spoken of? I must have missed it



It's in the Elliot Wave and the XAO thread, but is just one EW perspective. Those posters here have us in a W4 of some type. There was a possible alternate count, but it hasn't been considered in detail. 

I'm looking forward to the revised count. It's interesting stuff.


----------



## beamstas (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks, Kennas.
But
I think i'll pass on that one!


----------



## Sean K (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> Thanks, Kennas.
> But
> I think i'll pass on that one!



No dramas.

I'm open to all analysis of where we've been and where we're going.

Surprised Yogi hasn't been in this thread. At all actually. Surely he should be able to see where the XAO is going!


----------



## glenn_r (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is AGET's default take on the XAO weeklies, bearish divergence with bullish volume, price action after reporting season will be interesting.

Disclaimer.

I'm only a mug Elliot Wave observer DYOR.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> *I wouldn't totally exclude a straight line up play *....




Who said markets cannot go straight up??

She's smokin today comrades. Surely this is the top?


----------



## Sean K (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> She's smokin today comrades. Surely this is the top?



Yep, must be the top right now, and down to 1500.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Hope Ivant has closed some shorts already
> 
> I heard there will be more bank buying today. Stay long!




F me you weren't joking!! 

How do you manipulate the market like that


----------



## skyQuake (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well I decided to move my SPI swear jar money into banks today 

----------------------------------

A contact was hinting at it, and told me not to short anz lol
Kinda makes sense now.. Big 4 get upgraded, last straw for sideline money to move in. Surprising number of funds listen to their insto brokers :O

Also I reckon theres a fair bit of rotation from XMJ and XEJ to financial et al.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Also I reckon theres a fair bit of rotation from XMJ and XEJ to financial et al.




Yes and no one wants anything to do with "safe" yielding TLS on this rally.

More evidence that the elephants are in risk seeking mode - Stampede any one?


----------



## Awesomandy (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> More evidence that the elephants are in risk seeking mode - Stampede any one?




The more elephants run out to the tide, the more they run back when the tide comes back in, and, unfortunately, drowning a few of them in the process.


----------



## gfresh (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

or FGL, CCL, WOW, WES, HVN, etc.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> The more elephants run out to the tide, the more they run back when the tide comes back in, and, unfortunately, drowning a few of them in the process.




Yep the little, weak, slow, dumb, sick ones.


----------



## skyQuake (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Meanwhile they trample the rabbits trying to hold them back


----------



## Beej (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> The more elephants run out to the tide, the more they run back when the tide comes back in, and, unfortunately, drowning a few of them in the process.




What if what actually happened was the elephants all stampeded inland because a tsunami arrived, (many elephants got trampled already in that stampede!!!), and now the tsunami has receded, and after waiting for a bit to be sure, the elephants are just walking (maybe stampeding a little in their exuberance!) back to the regular coast line?? The tide might even still be up!  The rabbits get trampled regardless.....

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## Chris45 (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XJO daily.
This seems to be a reasonable count so far.
(3) was approx. 1.62 x (1)
3 of (3) was approx. 1.62 x 1 of (3)
Question is, is this wave 4 or wave 1 of the new bull market?


----------



## glenn_r (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting use of Elephants and Rabbits as analysis tools, anyway do people think it's a "V" reversal or are we waiting for the "W" to form, that is the $64 question.

My money is on the "W".... but some is on "V" already.


----------



## johnnyg (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For those using the EW software, how does it determine that today was the end of wave 5 (going off the numbering on the 2 charts posted). Today closed on the high and I for one can't see any weakness.

EDIT - I re-looked and it looks as though on the above daily chart the #5 is still a little way up, so I guess this is projected from the previous waves as a possible termination point?


----------



## tech/a (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not the end of wave 5 but in wave 5.
Its just labelling it as such.

See this is where everyone has a great deal of problems with changing wave counts.
They have to change as the market is dynamic and will show onething at one time and then over time be something else.

To attempt to demonsrate 
on 20/07/09 the count was as the first chart.
on 21/07/09 the count was the second chart.
And still is.

You could have been long from the bottom of the ABC corrective move 
I have been since 14/07/09 and its been a very good 2 weeks.
Initial target for this move is 4388 which seems to be close to other types of analysis targets.

*Click to Enlarge*


----------



## johnnyg (31 July 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Cheers for the explanation tech. I too have been trading long for the past couple of weeks, regardless of the different counts for EW.


----------



## Frank D (1 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> See this is where everyone has a great deal of problems with changing wave counts.
> They have to change as the market is dynamic and will show onething at one time and then over time be something else.




Yeah the market is dynamic but elliot wave isn’t. It’s a big lagging lump of 




tech/a said:


> To attempt to demonsrate




Those charts demonstrate diddly squat. All they demonstrate is someone place their own counts on it after the fact.



tech/a said:


> You could have been long from the bottom of the ABC corrective move




Hindsight at it's best.  Tech, make sure you give me the tip next time around 




tech/a said:


> Initial target for this move is 4388 which seems to be close to *other types of analysis targets*











johnnyg said:


> I too have been trading long for the past couple of weeks, *regardless of the different counts for EW*.




Simple things like trading with the trend often do make you money.

Bloody brilliant.


----------



## MR. (1 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Frank D said:


> Bloody brilliant.




Well I'm brilliant!  Wasn't there a special thread for this? Anyway, not expecting a badge of guru status, lika suma dem uder fellas! 

14/7/09


MR. said:


> This is what I've been looking at "87 vs 08". Take a look at the same periods in the same time frames. Both hit in the month of October. Both falls were approx 50%, yes. With the second lows (3 months later) late Feb88 & early March09. From there "both" rebounded, some 26 percent, then side ways / dropped back a little over a couple of months.... very similar. So after the "dropped back a little" the low in 88 was in June then the market rallied a further 15% in a month!
> 
> Will we now see a 15% rise in July or there abouts?




The small correction in June 88 was approx 5% when the small correction in early July 09 bottomed at approx 5.5%. Then up she goes. So how much? 

15/7/09


MR. said:


> With the time frames and rebounds being so similar I agree that it appears to be based purely (as Nomore4's put it) “around the psychology of the market participants.”  Either that or manipulation at its best, LOL. Coincidence?
> 
> Looking for 15.




Well, July has ended and what the? The market this time has gone up 14%. or is that 14% so far. Whatever, I'm outer there.  Why is my hair standing on end? I thought it was a secret, but you all must have known this, you sons of guns not letting on, except for Nomore. 

The stock market is not the economy, hell no. What exactly is the stock market then?  F@#$ me. 

I know it's the "psychology of the market participants" And to think I thought the market was going lower than 3100! geezzzz 

From now on I will only trade with my new hat on. TH ya not getin ya tin hat  back period. 

View attachment TIN HAT2.bmp


----------



## Chris45 (1 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> You could have been long from the bottom of the ABC corrective move
> I have been since 14/07/09 and its been a very good 2 weeks.
> Initial target for this move is 4388 which seems to be close to other types of analysis targets.



That sounds like a beautiful "Type 1 Trade" to me. Well done! 
Are you targeting a 1.618 extension of wave 1?


----------



## dutchie (1 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Frank D said:


> Yeah the market is dynamic but elliot wave isn’t. It’s a big lagging lump of
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Hi Frank

I'm a bit disappointed in your attitude here.

IMHO you might be better off putting your time and expertise in explaining your methods in more detail rather than ridiculing other posters and analysis methods.

I understand that you don't think much of EW but a constructive comparison of your methods and EW could be more beneficial.

I appreciate both EW and your methods.

Cheers

dutchie


----------



## MRC & Co (1 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> F me you weren't joking!!
> 
> How do you manipulate the market like that




LOL, helps to have friends in high place huh!


----------



## Sean K (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Not the end of wave 5 but in wave 5.
> Its just labelling it as such.
> 
> See this is where everyone has a great deal of problems with changing wave counts.
> ...



Your last posts on the XAO a while ago made it clear you thought we were at a top, tech. Just over 2 weeks ago actually. 

I also notice that March low is now labelled a 5. So, we're seen the bottom? I thought you were very sure that that was a 3 and we were headed to fresh lows?

I suppose that can revert back to a 3 in time can't it.

Maket's dynamic, etc.


----------



## tech/a (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Nasdaq
> XAO
> lining up-- analysis pretty well the same.
> Again I dont see much changing from the analysis I have been posting for sometime.
> ...




*Was pretty right.*



tech/a said:


> Readig the market isnt that hard.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




*So was this.*

Frank I've read your work actually more than once.
Some is excellent.


Hmm doesnt re print the charts.
22/ July the Second chart
24th June the First chart

I think.

Found them


----------



## Sean K (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Huh?

No, and no.

and 11 July:



tech/a said:


> Duc.
> 
> Is it really that hard?
> 
> ...




3 days before you went long?

Very dynamic..


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

heheheheheh. just in the interest of balanced reporting,



tech/a said:


> *Was pretty right.*
> 
> *So was this.*




Yeah but this wasn't from the 8th of July,


tech/a said:


> Julia.
> 
> Nun asked for realtime examples these were what I pulled up within a few hrs.
> Nothing special about those chosen-- just making the point of being on the right side of the market.
> Short right now is the right side of the market.



  remember a few others about some sort of H&S thingo too.

:bong:


----------



## tech/a (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What?

Short right there certainly was the right side of the market.
The problem is?
Evidence at the time was correct.
Further technical evidence presented itself so went long.
What you want a daily commentary?

$500/statement
Happy to oblige.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> What?
> 
> Short right there certainly was the right side of the market.
> The problem is?
> ...




Oh I understand tech. Just highlights the BETTER method that say someone like Frank uses that has time and price levels defined before we get there rather than waiting for confirmation.


----------



## Cartman (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Short right there certainly was the right side of the market.
> The problem is?
> Evidence at the time was correct.





TH has his wooden spoon out again methinks 

just for the record though shorting any instrument when its reaching a double bottom in an uptrend is *not* recommended


----------



## nunthewiser (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> What?
> 
> 
> $500/statement
> Happy to oblige.





LOL this bit gets me every time!!


cheers tech/a you crack me up


----------



## nunthewiser (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Cartman said:


> just for the record though shorting any instrument when its reaching a double bottom in an uptrend is *not* recommended






arrghhh why didnt you tell me that before when you saw i was entering shorts!  ....bleedin hindsight experts sheet me to tears bucko .........


----------



## tech/a (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL this bit gets me every time!!
> 
> 
> cheers tech/a you crack me up




Just waiting for someone to take me up.
Joe's loves donations.
I know Ive donated!

I'm the only Muppet to take up my own offer and Lost!!
I crack myself up!


----------



## Cartman (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> arrghhh why didnt you tell me that before when you saw i was entering shorts!  ......





what --- u didnt get my email !! 

if i remember Nun u were shorting at a recent top not the double bottom  --- i like that strategy myself,  but sometimes backing the top to stop spinning is better on the second spin !! --- especially when it gets that crazy little thrust pattern which almost throws it off the table just before it stops eh


----------



## prawn_86 (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Just waiting for someone to take me up.




What exactly is it you want them to take you up on? You throw around that $500 'challenge' but never say what its for.

People said you were saying it was the time to go short, just days before you supposedly went long. So i dont see how you can 'win'  By showing you took out shorts, but got stopped out and took out longs? 

Im confused.


----------



## Annwn (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO monthly chart with a Coppick Indicator.

Mr Coppick said that the indicator has only one use and that is determining the start of a bull market.
The signal is when the indicator turns up from below the zero line, it is telling us that the market has bottomed and a bull run has started

Cheers


----------



## Wysiwyg (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Annwn said:


> XAO monthly chart with a Coppick Indicator.
> 
> Mr Coppick said that the indicator has only one use and that is determining the start of a bull market.
> The signal is when the indicator turns up from below the zero line, it is telling us that the market has bottomed and a bull run has started
> ...




Hard to deny the past facts there. Notice the price doesn`t return to previous upturn level either.


----------



## tech/a (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prawn_86 said:


> What exactly is it you want them to take you up on? You throw around that $500 'challenge' but never say what its for.
> 
> People said you were saying it was the time to go short, just days before you supposedly went long. So i don't see how you can 'win'  By showing you took out shorts, but got stopped out and took out longs?
> 
> I'm confused.




Yeah I know what they are saying.
*At the time of posting that chart short was the correct position.*
In days to come long was the correct position to be in.
Id made that clear on the second chart that one side would take control.
I went long and have been in and out of some excellent trades and am still long in some.

The $500 is for the Muppet sector who take statements like that as crap (Easily done by those who don't know how to interpret/apply Elliott.).
My integrety has been questioned.

I'm happy to prove to the Muppet's that the above statement is true by submitting live trading statements as supportive evidence to Joe.
At $500/ request.
I have requested others to do the same when I dont believe them (One did----I lost!) so dont expect to be treated any differently.

The $500 goes to Joe in support of his site.
Clear enough?


----------



## MR. (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Nothing wrong with being wrong.
> I am often.




Fixed! 
moving on......

How much higher will this leg run?  Anyone?  reason?

Apart from Annwn's "the market has bottomed and a bull run has started", do we have anything else guys?


----------



## Wysiwyg (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> Fixed!
> moving on......
> 
> How much higher will this leg run?  Anyone?  reason?
> ...




A simple look at the asx 200 weekly chart with my projected trend lines and zone of interest to go with the trend. 

With all fundamental expectations lowered or known nowadays it doesn`t take much for the economic numbers to be acceptable.


----------



## beamstas (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Am i doing it right?


----------



## Wysiwyg (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> Am i doing it right?




Yes.


----------



## beamstas (2 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Yes.




Here, you deserve one for that 
:bier:


----------



## shag (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

computer buggered. bloombergs a good read.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCbacdLSWjCs


----------



## skyQuake (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Banks still being bought 

Geeze AUD opened high


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Banks still being bought




Ouch on that open for the shorts!



skyQuake said:


> Geeze AUD opened high




Perfect. That just gave me 0.5% more to lose in Las Vegas in two days :


----------



## nunthewiser (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Perfect. That just gave me 0.5% more to lose in Las Vegas in two days :




VIVA!!!


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> The $500 is for the Muppet sector who take statements like that as crap (Easily done by those who don't know how to interpret/apply Elliott.).
> My integrity has been questioned.




No it wasn't tech. I was merely pointing out that just like the rest of us so called Muppets you haven't got the market on a piece of string. 

Unlike Skyquake who manipulates the bank stocks at will  Or like a method that Frank has developed that has some degree of success in defining moves and prices before they unfold rather than waiting for the players (like Skyquake  to show the way.


----------



## tech/a (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> No it wasn't tech. I was merely pointing out that just like the rest of us so called Muppets you haven't got the market on a piece of string.




True.

Enjoy Vegas.
Coyote Ugly Bar is decedant.


----------



## Sean K (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech, have you changed your preferred count? 

Still in a W4?


----------



## tech/a (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Post 6888.
Now its in a wave 5.

No different to any other analysis altering as buying and selling progresses.


----------



## Sean K (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Post 6888.
> Now its in a wave 5.
> 
> No different to any other analysis altering as buying and selling progresses.



No, the W5 down to new lows EW has been calling for the past few months. 

There was an alternate count that I suggested and OWG presented as an alternate count, that we had seen THE low. OWG hasn't changed his expanding triangle W4 analysis as yet.

I note that on your chart the March low now has a 5 on it. 

So, are we now in a most likely larger degree W1 off the bottom?


----------



## nunthewiser (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

 and that will be the top for the next few days


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> and that will be the top for the next few days




Nun!! ya killing the bears. Don't you know it will only top out once everyone thinks its going higher.


----------



## nunthewiser (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Nun!! ya killing the bears. Don't you know it will only top out once everyone thinks its going higher.




buggar them if they silly enough to listen to me ! 

i thought everybody already thought that ?


----------



## nunthewiser (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ooops hang on . i may have to confer with skyquake and ask him to do me a favour for the next cupla days so i dont lose too much face on an internet forum again with my outlandish calls


----------



## skyQuake (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> ooops hang on . i may have to confer with skyquake and ask him to do me a favour for the next cupla days so i dont lose too much face on an internet forum again with my outlandish calls




Psst! I have heard from a very reliable source of mine that Old man Rockefeller and Mr JP Morgan himself are buying some uh... PHW. All the stock they can lay their hands on! You'll do very well if you jump in before them and pay the spread, and be doubly sure you take out that line for 3.3 Million shares at 2.4c for your own benefit. Post hate nun before everyone else dives into this mad rush!


----------



## nunthewiser (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Psst! I have heard from a very reliable source of mine that Old man Rockefeller and Mr JP Morgan himself are buying some uh... PHW. All the stock they can lay their hands on! You'll do very well if you jump in before them and pay the spread, and be doubly sure you take out that line for 3.3 Million shares at 2.4c for your own benefit. Post hate nun before everyone else dives into this mad rush!




lol cheers for the heads up !

with the amount of contacts you got , are you sure your not marilyn monroe ?


----------



## skyQuake (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> lol cheers for the heads up !
> 
> with the amount of contacts you got , are you sure your not marilyn monroe ?




Ha! She is (was) simply one of my contacts


----------



## wonderrman (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thank you for all the ramblings regarding Elliot theory and $500. i'm sure 
most of us though are interested in the title of the thread, the XAO and 
a discussion regarding what it is doing/where it is going.

accumulation, consolidation, distribution is what we should be looking 
to identify using different time frames to form the basis of our trading. 
EW an all is fine but it is very SUBJECTIVE and relies on a persons opinion, 
all though all trading does, as gamblers we must try and eliminate as 
much subjectiveness as possible. i think many of these theories simply 
are a barrier for us to simply see what the chart is telling us, not what
we want it to say. it may work for some like the tech man but i think
many would have missed out on  this  magnificent rally because they thought
the turning point back down to a new wave 3 or 4 or what ever would occur
at 4000, but it didn't so they changed their mind and said it would occur
at 4200. it turns out they were wrong and if they only listened to what
the market was really telling them through a rising wave they would have
made money. unfortunately sins of omission are present far more then 
sins of commission in our markets. 


WEEKLY




DAILY




short term the market looks over extended, sideways action could occur like
 we've seen previously, when this has occurred the market has dropped then
 rebounded. no reason why this couldn't happen again. the market is very 
bullish though and as looking at the weekly chart there is still plenty of room 
to push higher. a move to 4600 within the next two months is very possible 
if the news continues to be seen by the public as good. 

of course this could be wrong and bears could come in and push the market 
down, it doesn't look like it but it is obviously a possibility so protect using 
stops as usual.

i do think we will see 4600 but a decline within the wave is possible and 
probable to shake out the weak. 

gotta fly  wonder.


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So let me get this right. One method is of no use because its to "subjective" but the "better" method thats put forward is followed with the lines,



> short term the market looks over extended





> sideways action could occur





> no reason why this couldn't happen again





> a move to 4600 within the next two months is very possible
> *if* the news continues to be seen by the public as good.





> of course this could be wrong





> it doesn't look like it but it is obviously a possibility





> so protect using stops as usual.



 why because you need to protect against a subjective opinion being wrong?


> I do think we will see 4600 but a decline within the wave is possible



LOL


----------



## Wysiwyg (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It`s an ingrained part of Australian culture to knock someone if they`re wrong or make a mistake.


----------



## sammy84 (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You beat me to it TH. I couldn't help but laugh as I was reading wondermans post.

You could play spot the contradiction with that post. Also...finding an apparent trend line in no way eliminates subjectiveness and it also doesn't really help tell you what the market is going to do. Furthermore not sure about the call about the XAO being overextended, one only needs to look at the last rally to see that the market can remain in what is a perceived state of over extendedness for quite some time.


----------



## nunthewiser (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

cool  we have one definate "mkt going up " . and one it will go up if it doesent go down ...and another call that mr jp morgan and marilyn monroe may have been an item


looks like my call of today being the top for a few days WILL be correct


----------



## tech/a (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kennas.

Ive tried to give you a running chart commentary hope it helps.
By the way the waves are labelled by the software and are algorithms.
Purists may not agree with the labelling. It serves its purpose for me.


----------



## MR. (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> cool  we have one definate "mkt going up " . and one it will go up if it doesent go down ...and another call that mr jp morgan and marilyn monroe may have been an item
> 
> 
> looks like my call of today being the top for a few days WILL be correct




Sheeek, I better not upset the math.


----------



## nunthewiser (3 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> Sheeek, I better not upset the math.




pay no heed , just acting the goose 

to those concerned . sorry for disrupting any serious discussion


----------



## MR. (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What! The yanks didn't get the memo?  Bugger, just have to send it again! 

ooooh 1000 on the S&P!


----------



## Sean K (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Kennas.
> 
> Ive tried to give you a running chart commentary hope it helps.
> By the way the waves are labelled by the software and are algorithms.
> Purists may not agree with the labelling. It serves its purpose for me.



Thanks Tech. Do you personally favour this count now, or prefer that we're still in a W4 waiting for the next leg down?


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I would just like to point out that some _do _have this market on a string. 



Trembling Hand said:


> I wouldn't totally exclude a straight line up play ....




On another note. Hows our young maverick going with that $500 a point short @ 3950?


----------



## Edwood (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

oo-er missus, I reckon those shorts must be feeling a little tight 

Opening gap & run at this stage of the rally - either we're bolting into the great beyond or we're close to exhausting.  I'm leaning toward the latter


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> Opening gap & run at this stage of the rally - either we're bolting into the great beyond or we're close to exhausting.  I'm leaning toward the latter




As per my pulling and pushing on the string we will get the next important move at 11:43. Stay tuned for direction.


----------



## moXJO (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> As per my pulling and pushing on the string we will get the next important move at 11:43. Stay tuned for direction.




whats at 11:43? 
china open?


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> whats at 11:43? china open?



Sorry cannot tell. You have had to kiss the popes ring to be part of the click.


----------



## moXJO (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Sorry cannot tell. You have had to kiss the popes ring to be part of the click.




I'm not going back there to kiss that, no matter how holy he is.


----------



## skyQuake (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> I'm not going back there to kiss that, no matter how holy he is.




LOL
------------------------------------------
HSI opens? pre-futs are running atm.

EDIT: Retail trade figures? House price index?


----------



## MR. (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

EDIT:  RBA?


----------



## Aussiest (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> I'm leaning toward the latter




I'm leaning on my desk.

Let's see if the gap is faded by EOD.


----------



## johnnyg (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone heard from Ivant? His blogs been quite of late.


----------



## Sean K (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



johnnyg said:


> Anyone heard from Ivant? His blogs been quite of late.



I hope he's doing ok.


----------



## Sunder (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> On another note. Hows our young maverick going with that $500 a point short @ 3950?




ya... ga ga ga ga. What?

Who did that? that's $185,000 lost so far, if they didn't close out.


----------



## moXJO (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> ya... ga ga ga ga. What?
> 
> Who did that? that's $185,000 lost so far, if they didn't close out.




Ivant


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Who did that? that's $185,000 lost so far, if they didn't close out.




Tiny amount of heat for a maverick.


----------



## beamstas (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

He was just fooled by randomness. 
Playing russian roulette is a dangerous game. 

He had dodged a few bullets but it always catches up with you..


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> He had dodged a few bullets but it always catches up with you..




Its not a loss untill its closed out.


----------



## nunthewiser (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Its not a loss untill its closed out.




LOL


----------



## beamstas (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The same luck that made him money took it away.
Oh well TH is right  Maybe if he never sells one day he can still make a profit


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> He was just fooled by randomness.




Speaking of the poor plebs that have to deal with randomness. Its now clear that my leaking of the high at 11:43 got the trading desk at the Vatican a bit flighty and they jumped the gun - by 10 min. But you get the idea.

My works done, highs in. games over, I'm out of here.

Good luck with your random bets. :


----------



## skyQuake (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Speaking of the poor plebs that have to deal with randomness. Its now clear that my leaking of the high at 11:43 got the trading desk at the Vatican a bit flighty and they jumped the gun - by 10 min. But you get the idea.
> 
> My works done, highs in. games over, I'm out of here.
> 
> Good luck with your random bets. :




Asia had rolled over while SPI was making those highs (prob shaking out those weak hands), good short there 

Wait till the bank buying ends. Then we will see a real pullback


----------



## skyQuake (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> The same luck that made him money took it away.
> Oh well TH is right  Maybe if he never sells one day he can still make a profit




Speaking of which, if you short every company under the sun, and the lenders are nice enough to never margin call you; Eventually that company is going to go bust. Maybe in 5 years, maybe in 200. Just hold and average  Have seen plenty of shares go to 0 but not any that have gone to infinity!


----------



## moXJO (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Speaking of which, if you short every company under the sun, and the lenders are nice enough to never margin call you; Eventually that company is going to go bust. Maybe in 5 years, maybe in 200. Just hold and average  Have seen plenty of shares go to 0 but not any that have gone to infinity!




Yes but a stock can only lose 100% on todays price , but gain 100% plus if going long


----------



## skyQuake (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> Yes but a stock can only lose 100% on todays price , but gain 100% plus if going long




Yeah as long as you never get margin called its fine


----------



## moXJO (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Yeah as long as you never get margin called its fine




Storm financial must have thought thats how it worked


----------



## ivant (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey kids,

Lol I am still fine. I've been trading around it. Obviously smashed in the head overall. I've been too lazy to update on the blogs. I've had a few more important things to deal with outside of trading. In any case, I'm down a fair bit as you have guessed. It is now time to see how this 1000 level plays out. I am guessing this market can go as high as 4370, anything post that and I am in a fair bit of trouble. I am guessing if overnight the US doesn't rally of manipulated consumer confidence data, I should be ok. 1000-1010 is definitely some heavy resistance. I was actually surprised for the first time during the last 3 weeks at the lack of selling last night at the 1000 level. 

On a different topic, if you do want me to post here at all, I'd appreciated if my way of trading is not questioned. Firstly, I trade the way I trade because I am not afraid to lose all my money. If I am short, every day the market moves against me when the underlying situation has not changed, I only have more reason to be in that trade.  Secondly, this is not a topic under Trading Strategies, in which case it would be on topic, but more so in the topic of discussing the market. I understand it would be a very happy moment for some of you to see my ideology to fail me (which is fine, I can understand that, people don't like having anything radially different, or something that they can view as stupid), but it is definitely off topic here.  Lastly, the way I trade is based on my psychology. I guess I will blow up a few times in my life, and hopefully not end up with suicide as Livermore did, but at the end of the day, it is the way I want to play this game 

Have fun,

Ivan


----------



## tech/a (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> but more so in the topic of discussing the market.




If you stick to this you wont have to ever worry about that will you?



> I'd appreciated if my way of trading is not questioned


----------



## skyQuake (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> Hey kids,
> 
> Lol I am still fine. I've been trading around it. Obviously smashed in the head overall. I've been too lazy to update on the blogs. I've had a few more important things to deal with outside of trading. In any case, I'm down a fair bit as you have guessed. It is now time to see how this 1000 level plays out. I am guessing this market can go as high as 4370, anything post that and I am in a fair bit of trouble. I am guessing if overnight the US doesn't rally of manipulated consumer confidence data, I should be ok. 1000-1010 is definitely some heavy resistance. I was actually surprised for the first time during the last 3 weeks at the lack of selling last night at the 1000 level.
> 
> ...




Ivant, there are those here who would like to see you blow up because they want to drag down anyone who succeeds or has an idea; there are those who would like to see you blow up cause it might teach u a lesson about averaging.
Personally I would prefer people learn and adapt without losing significant portions of capital. Enjoy your posts as they usually contain some well thought out ideas.

Having said that, most of us SPI traders are/were scalpers and think a 15 tick move is a huge move. Thus holding it a 100ts offside seems unfathomable.
Good luck and happy trading.


----------



## ivant (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just so you know, I know I made a huge mistake of not covering when the market broke 955. I was leaning towards the market hitting 985 and maybe 1000 at that point. That hurt me. Or when the market broke 3180 which gave a breakout. 2 situations that really hurt me. Oh well, learn and move on


----------



## ivant (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Ivant, there are those here who would like to see you blow up because they want to drag down anyone who succeeds or has an idea; there are those who would like to see you blow up cause it might teach u a lesson about averaging.
> Personally I would prefer people learn and adapt without losing significant portions of capital. Enjoy your posts as they usually contain some well thought out ideas.
> 
> Having said that, most of us SPI traders are/were scalpers and think a 15 tick move is a huge move. Thus holding it a 100ts offside seems unfathomable.
> Good luck and happy trading.




Lol well when I planned out my scenarios, this was the worst case scenario: second biggest rally in history at 46-8% (depends how you count it). The only one bigger was in 1938. I didn't see any major similarities between the current situation and 1938, so I thought this scenario was possible. However, when I went short, it didn't look like the S&P would break 930, and neither did it look like it would break 955. I've blown up twice in my life, but on smaller accounts. Ah well if this will be three, a great time to start over. I wish I had another 150k, I'd love to short Crude Oil at the 72 levels, and short the EUR/USD pair. Add a bit to my long VIX trade. AUD/USD at 85cents is a great fib level. This is such a great moment of trading opportunities. 

Unfortunately, I have a slight disadvantage of not being purely a technical trader. I need to use technical analysis a lot more for my entries, which I have been working on, just not enough. I don't want to get into this argument with anyone, but the fundamentals in the US are horrible. In ASIA I get the feeling they are rather overstated. In any case, what a great opportunity to short the market for those who were not in!


----------



## Aussiest (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> I wish I had another 150k, I'd love to short Crude Oil at the 72 levels...




With all due respect, you probably would have had another 150k if you had have used proper money management and set stop losses. If you are happy with the risks you are taking, then so be it. But, there's this thing called _opportunity loss_ and you're experiencing it right now.


----------



## moXJO (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Having said that, most of us SPI traders are/were scalpers and think a 15 tick move is a huge move. Thus holding it a 100ts offside seems unfathomable.
> Good luck and happy trading.




I would probably die holding spi overnight, and cry when a trade goes against me by 1%. I don't know how you manage to do it Ivant but that’s probably why I haven't traded 1k to 450k (or whatever it was).


----------



## nunthewiser (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i may not agree with your strategys ie management , but do respect your honesty 

may you catch a break

cheers ,


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> On a different topic, if you do want me to post here at all, I'd appreciated if my way of trading is not questioned.




LOL. So lets get this right. ya wanna pimp yourself as a,



> professional trader that has been trading for 8 years



 then get ya nickers in a knot when other point out what you do ain't that "professional". 

Number 1 rule in developing your internet guru status. When you make an internet claim expect to take heat on it. Unless you make it so obscure that people will glaze over it until after it happens. Just in case its wrong.

If you are unable to do that probably best to not put more than 2% of your guru status at risk on any one call. I call it "guru management" or GM.


----------



## beamstas (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Unless you make it so obscure that people will glaze over it until after it happens. Just in case its wrong.




oh wow


----------



## nunthewiser (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

now thats some funny stuff 

cheers TH


----------



## nunthewiser (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

 today was the high for the next cupla days


----------



## skyQuake (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nun, i think TH meant with this:



Trembling Hand said:


> If you are unable to do that probably best to not put more than 2% of your guru status at risk on any one call. I call it "guru management" or GM.




_today was the high for around 2% of the market for the next cupla days_


However if you are really confident, you can leverage your status and make bigger calls. Problem is you stand to lose a lot of status without proper GM.


----------



## nunthewiser (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Nun, i think TH meant with this:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




hahahahah 

excellent stuff!

with this new post management knowledge ,i am now on the path to being a forum guru 

thanks guys


----------



## nunthewiser (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> pay no heed , just acting the goose
> 
> to those concerned . sorry for disrupting any serious discussion




i had to bump this quote to remind myself this was a serious thread for serious dudes 

as you were 

apologies for all breaks in transmission yet again


----------



## skyQuake (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ok, srs discussion. Well i am 2% sure that..

ah screw it. Looks toppyyy. Major reversal in our miners today. Only one that held up was NCM which tends to be a contrarian indicator in my books. 
Bank buying should be all but finished, volume is mostly done imo.
Whats important is seeing how much buying there is when prices come down again.

Can't have a recovery based on XNJ and and XDJ

Fwiw i got meself some really OTM puts today. Expecting some sharp downmoves for a bit of a vol play but no way am I holding to maturity.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Ok, srs discussion. Well i am 2% sure that..
> 
> ah screw it. Looks toppyyy. Major reversal in our miners today. Only one that held up was NCM which tends to be a contrarian indicator in my books.
> Bank buying should be all but finished, volume is mostly done imo.
> ...




Come on Skyquake - although the Internet guru game is not a zero sum game, we can all be winners. Only those that truly leverage up their guru capital with top and bottom calls to the minute achieve exceptional guru wealth.

May I remind punters my call was right on give or take a few Internet minutes. 

Screen shot of my days guru's trade results,


----------



## skyQuake (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Come on Skyquake - although the Internet guru game is not a zero sum game, we can all be winners. Only those that truly leverage up their guru capital with top and bottom calls to the minute achieve exceptional guru wealth.
> 
> May I remind punters my call was right on give or take a few Internet minutes.
> 
> Screen shot of my days guru's trade results,




Do you toss and turn alot? I'd imagine the money is not very good for your back :

---------------

Leverage eh? Ok Today we see the high for the next 10 trading days followed by a feeble rally, followed by some consolidation. There


----------



## johnnyg (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ivant, you paid your tax bill yet for the 08-09 year?  

All the best. 

John.


----------



## michael_selway (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Do you toss and turn alot? I'd imagine the money is not very good for your back :
> 
> ---------------
> 
> Leverage eh? Ok Today we see the high for the next 10 trading days followed by a feeble rally, followed by some consolidation. There






Trembling Hand said:


> Come on Skyquake - although the Internet guru game is not a zero sum game, we can all be winners. Only those that truly leverage up their guru capital with top and bottom calls to the minute achieve exceptional guru wealth.
> 
> May I remind punters my call was right on give or take a few Internet minutes.
> 
> Screen shot of my days guru's trade results,




Omg Amercian Dollars....that wil be all worthless one day 

Thanks
MS


----------



## cutz (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Fwiw i got meself some really OTM puts today. Expecting some sharp downmoves for a bit of a vol play but no way am I holding to maturity.




Nice one skyQuake,

I notice they've been on special lately.


----------



## MrBurns (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well thats the second share boom I've missed,
I'd use the bang head icon but somehow it just doesnt seem enough.


----------



## gfresh (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not really -- there's still 50% to gain for the market to reach the old highs.. They always do eventually.. even if takes until 2019. 5% a year is surely better than in the bank?


----------



## skc (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> Not really -- there's still 50% to gain for the market to reach the old highs.. *They always do eventually.. *even if takes until 2019. 5% a year is surely better than in the bank?




Please kindly refer to the Japan share market chart since 1990...


----------



## MrBurns (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If I knew half as much about shares as I do about real estate I'd be a hero in here.


----------



## gfresh (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Please kindly refer to the Japan share market chart since 1990...




There's always one..  don't think we live in Japan with the same policies, nor are all of our banks insolvent. But sure, it's possible..

If you buy at the top you might be waiting a while, but the top was back 2 years ago.


----------



## MR. (4 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> There's always one..  don't think we live in Japan with the same policies, nor are all of our banks insolvent. But sure, it's possible..




Well, not livin in Japan just yet. Might be sooner or later if me Yen trade isn't pulled off!   Sushi Sushi Sushi.......


----------



## Sunder (5 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> If I knew half as much about shares as I do about real estate I'd be a hero in here.




So what's your call on Mosman apartments at the moment?  I'm buying a PPOR, not an investment, so the actual fundamentals are less important than an IP, but I'd still like to know if I'm making a huge mistake.


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ha!! see the poor suckers buying up the open. Fools. Don't they know I have all my guru capital leveraged short on this. They are running into a brick wall going long. Tops in. Games over.


----------



## MR. (5 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Ha!! see the poor suckers buying up the open. Fools. Don't they know I have all my guru capital ("oooh and not forgetting guru status") leveraged short on this. They are running into a brick wall going long. Tops in. Games over.




Geez ya upsetting nun's count there. Might have to change to long now!

Hangon, Hangon, think the memo's getting out!


----------



## MrBurns (5 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> So what's your call on Mosman apartments at the moment?  I'm buying a PPOR, not an investment, so the actual fundamentals are less important than an IP, but I'd still like to know if I'm making a huge mistake.




I'm in Melbourne not Sydney but as a general rule I wouldnt buy now. 
The bubble is inflating daily, not sure for how long.


----------



## skyQuake (5 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Ha!! see the poor suckers buying up the open. Fools. Don't they know I have all my guru capital leveraged short on this. They are running into a brick wall going long. Tops in. Games over.




Gave you a bit of a nudge there selling all those billions of dollars worth of shares, us gurus haev to stick together


----------



## Sean K (5 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Please direct housing comments to the appropriate thread, or aussiepropertyforums.

That tit for tat was going to go on till the snow thawed.


----------



## MrBurns (5 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Please direct housing comments to the appropriate thread, or aussiepropertyforums.
> 
> That tit for tat was going to go on till the snow thawed.




LOL so true...................


----------



## Sunder (5 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeah fair enough. Not meaning to derail the thread.


----------



## Sunder (5 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Ha!! see the poor suckers buying up the open. Fools. Don't they know I have all my guru capital leveraged short on this. They are running into a brick wall going long. Tops in. Games over.




Hey, don't worry, I'll pull out my Harry Potter wander, and yell "Levito!" or something at the stock market...

Interesting times. I'm expect the rally to run out of steam soon, so in some ways, I am in agreement with you that there's no point going long now. I'm just not quite sure if I should be closing out longs yet either... Trading system says no (Hasn't hit exit or trailing stop losses yet), gut says "TAKE THE FRIGGEN PROFIT AND RUN!!!"


----------



## nomore4s (5 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What I've found surprising about this rally is that people are surprised by the strength of it. History shows that we generally get a strong rally after seeing oversold positions based on panic and fear. We also know the stock market will overshoot in both directions and that trends can continue for far longer then anticipated. 

The pattern I posted earlier in the thread is still in play and will look to update that analysis when I have access to my data sometime next week.


----------



## MRC & Co (5 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> What I've found surprising about this rally is that people are surprised by the strength of it. History shows that we generally get a strong rally after seeing oversold positions based on panic and fear. We also know the stock market will overshoot in both directions and that trends can continue for far longer then anticipated.




But it's different this time.........right?


----------



## wayneL (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Does anyone know what these red numbers on my screen are?

What does it mean?

I used to know, but I've forgotten.


----------



## Awesomandy (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Does anyone know what these red numbers on my screen are?
> 
> What does it mean?
> 
> I used to know, but I've forgotten.




Red means it's hot, and you should buy now.


----------



## skyQuake (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Now was that a squeeze or what on the US banks. AIG up 60% :O


----------



## wayneL (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> Red means it's hot, and you should buy now.




A nice sideways consolidation will do me nicely.


----------



## surfziggy (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Slow drift lower for some more consolidation. Then another leg higher that'll have the shorts saying it can't go any higher. That's my guess, not based on anything other than my take on human psychology. Scientific huh?


----------



## skyQuake (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

TA's will look at yesterday's decline on the XJO on HEAVY volume and say WOW! That must be some MAJOR selling...

Thank you GPT for ruining the party.


----------



## gfresh (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If shorters are going to blasted at every opportunity, surely this is the beginnings of a bull market?? 

I've sold out of most positions on a pull back to somewhere between 4060-4150, but thinking because I want it to happen it's probably not going to...hmmm, this market is a wily one.


----------



## Sean K (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> I am guessing this market can go as high as 4370, anything post that and I am in a fair bit of trouble.




I am reminding myself that you said you were willing to lose all your money, so I don't need to wish you good luck.


----------



## gfresh (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

nice pop on the unemployment figures.. would have killed a few stops there.


----------



## prawn_86 (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I am reminding myself that you said you were willing to lose all your money, so I don't need to wish you good luck.




What i dont get is why would you be willing to lose all your money 

Surely at least put 100k away or a % away for the longer term each time. If Ivant keeps blowing up every few years, well then he is not going to achieve any long term goals is he. Very short sighted if you ask me. Oh well, each to their own...


----------



## skc (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prawn_86 said:


> What i dont get is why would you be willing to lose all your money
> 
> Surely at least put 100k away or a % away for the longer term each time. If Ivant keeps blowing up every few years, well then he is not going to achieve any long term goals is he. Very short sighted if you ask me. Oh well, each to their own...






kennas said:


> I am reminding myself that you said you were willing to lose all your money, so I don't need to wish you good luck.




Mods, stay with the thread and respect the wish of ivant pls. I am not siding with him but I think he has a place on this forum (either as a positive or negative example) so don't drive him away...

Feel free to start a thread called "multiple blow ups - good strategy or not" and discuss it there


----------



## nunthewiser (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

when all said and done tho .......

YES placing a decent % away would have been the right and responsible move

but would like to point out also that i do admire his honesty in this whole " trading " situation ..

we dont hear these tales here .. its 90% how great one is or "do as i say otherwise you are wrong " etc 

its is refreshing to hear someones human for a change even tho reckless but at least his story MAY ( hopefully ) teach others here a real life scenario on proper money management and teach that without said management the market will taketh away quicker and more severely than it gave 

these storys of financial mismanagement you will NOT read in a book or 99% of any other public arena .....

lol sorry SKC i only read your post after composing this masterpiece


----------



## nunthewiser (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

fwiw...

i have entered a few favourite short positions 

 but i do use a stop


----------



## Sean K (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Mods, stay with the thread and respect the wish of ivant pls. I am not siding with him but I think he has a place on this forum (either as a positive or negative example) so don't drive him away...
> 
> Feel free to start a thread called "multiple blow ups - good strategy or not" and discuss it there



Huh? I'm not posting as a Mod, and I'll say what I like in regard to other people's posts in this thread within the posting guidelines. If he doesn't want it analysed or commented on, don't post it up.


----------



## johnnyg (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> I trade the way I trade because I am not afraid to lose all my money.
> 
> Ivan




Make sure you keep enough for the tax man....225K+


----------



## skc (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Huh? I'm not posting as a Mod, and I'll say what I like in regard to other people's posts in this thread within the posting guidelines. If he doesn't want it analysed or commented on, don't post it up.




Not saying you posted as a mod... just addressing both of you as Mods since you are. 

Of course you can post what you like. I was just politely pointing out that the possible consequence may not be what other forum users like to see.


----------



## nunthewiser (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> the possible consequence may not be what other forum users like to see.





but perhaps they SHOULD see it 

not all sunshine and lollipops out there regardless of what ppl may think


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Mods, stay with the thread and respect the wish of ivant pls. I am not siding with him but I think he has a place on this forum (either as a positive or negative example) so don't drive him away...
> 
> Feel free to start a thread called "multiple blow ups - good strategy or not" and discuss it there




mate , far be it for me to ever come to the defence of a moderator, but your post makes no sense and detracts from this thread , started by kennas by the way.

I've read ivants posts and they make little sense either.

Play the ball and not the man, or else start your own thread.

gg


----------



## MRC & Co (7 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry, a bit of hindsight but still not too far off, I'm short at 1001 on S&P, if NFPs come out worse than expected tomorrow, I expect an all nighter of selling.    

Expect a pullback towards the 955-57 area.  From then, unsure as of yet.


----------



## Edwood (7 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

yeah could be the case Mr C - FTSE looks to have completed a pattern o/n - Cisco not good, UK allocated another 50bn to QE because things were worse than they thought.  Media & GS saying buy - must be due some sort of a retrace


----------



## nunthewiser (7 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Sorry, a bit of hindsight but still not too far off, I'm short at 1001 on S&P, if NFPs come out worse than expected tomorrow, I expect an all nighter of selling.
> 
> Expect a pullback towards the 955-57 area.  From then, unsure as of yet.





BHP , RIO profits expected to be an evil one also ....... 




> BHP Billiton Ltd/Plc and Rio Tinto Ltd/Plc , the world's two biggest miners, are set to report sharp falls in profit for the June half, battered by a slump in metals prices and volumes.
> 
> The December half will be even worse, as the full impact of lower iron ore and coal prices hits


----------



## NAsX (7 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> Media & GS saying buy - must be due some sort of a retrace




Yeah I can just imagine GS dumping all their holdings as they came out with that 1100 SP target for the year overnight


----------



## Sean K (7 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> BHP , RIO profits expected to be an evil one also .......



Factored in possibly.

Well, until a few weeks ago I would have thought so anyway.


----------



## gfresh (7 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

nowhere near enough.. BHP and RIO is still very expensive.


----------



## Sean K (7 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> nowhere near enough.. BHP and RIO is still very expensive.



I assume you measure that by price and earnings. What's their p/e's gfresh? What will they be after reporting? How does that sit historically, and compared to peers? How's their growth profile? Is this factored in?

I have current p/e at 17. Ooo, that does seem high.


----------



## gfresh (7 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

EPS this year will be 210cps if you're lucky (counting reduction in coal, 30% reduction in iron ore sold/dumped on spot market, coal price reductions, etc, etc) vs last year of 285cps or 26% down. So at a forward estimate that is 18x 2.10 = $37.80 which is roughly the now price, and is a best case based on profit. 

Minerals may have improved but they're still way off the highs.. Remembering many of these things only really improved in the last 3 months. The share price is now only 24% off highs of $50, almost as if recovery is guaranteed. 

Then if you look at our $AUD right now which is nudging on 84c, on it's way to 90c ? that's not really going to help either moving forward into 2010. 

Plus then you gotta take 30% off for the price they will be receiving for iron ore kicking off.. plus european demand which is a big earner for them (1/3 or something last I checked) is still pretty bad, plus japan still in the docks. US makes up a small share of earnings so not as important. China keeping the horse up, but may fade later in this year.. so still many uncertainties.

I'm rambling here as I don't have time right now to go through every single factor, but I reckon we'll see an adjustment soon to some reality.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Jeez , I wish the funds would stop scalping and just let the bloody thing fall to 2400, where it should be and then go sideways for 6 months or so.

gg


----------



## explod (7 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Jeez , I wish the funds would stop scalping and just let the bloody thing fall to 2400, where it should be and then go sideways for 6 months or so.
> 
> gg




It has no mind of its own gg, just seems to follow the Dow which they also should ..."just let the bloody thing fall"... to near naught, maybe ?


----------



## Donga (7 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What if we were knew in early 2009 that we were not going into a Depression merely another recession, that China and much of Asia were not going to slump into some US led malaise and that there would be encouraging signs of US recovery within 6 months. Would the market have fallen to 3100 or increased to where it is now? In years gone by when the US sneezed, the rest of the world caught a cold. Perhaps we're entering a new period where if the US gets a cold, some economies may just sneeze.


----------



## Muschu (7 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Jeez , I wish the funds would stop scalping and just let the bloody thing fall to 2400, where it should be and then go sideways for 6 months or so.
> 
> gg




Where it "should" be or is that where you "hope" it will be?  I'd rather trade with the flow - whatever that direction may be.  But I am upset by the pain countless small investors have suffered these many past months and hope they are not further hurt.


----------



## Broadway (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just wondering if any other traders are entertaining the idea of last friday night's US action and jobs data as a blow off top in the markets? A kind of sucker rally.

There was a fair bit of volume in the peaks of the ES YM and etfs after the jobs news, and the USD climbed significantly, which can happen around tops.
The ES fell into the close falling 8 points off the HOD. We'll see I guess.


----------



## Aussiest (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Just wondering if any other traders are entertaining the idea of last friday night's US action and jobs data as a blow off top in the markets? A kind of sucker rally.




It's funny that you say that Broadway. I have no charts or evidence to back it up, but last night i got the distinct feeling that *this *is the dead cat.

Gettin' ready to short :


----------



## explod (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiest said:


> It's funny that you say that Broadway. I have no charts or evidence to back it up, but last night i got the distinct feeling that *this *is the dead cat.
> 
> Gettin' ready to short :




Have a look at it on bigcharts (daily) take out the first hour of trade and we have a reverse hammer.

I did not follow last night, does the end of the first hour coincide with the actual release of the job numbers.


----------



## Timmy (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Have a look at it on bigcharts (daily) take out the first hour of trade and we have a reverse hammer.
> 
> I did not follow last night, does the end of the first hour coincide with the actual release of the job numbers.




I am not sure I follow you here explod, but this is the timeline, which may answer your question?

All New York times (not the newspaper!):

8.30 AM Non-farm Payroll figures released.
9.30 AM US Stock exchanges open.

The stock index futures were trading at 8.30AM (ES, NQ etc.) on the 'overnight' session of Globex.

Hope this helps?


----------



## nomore4s (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> I have been doing some research into other periods were the Aussie stock market has suffered major crashes and due to the XAO's limited history the best one to compare this current one too is the 1987 crash.
> 
> Both periods went virtually vertical before the crashes (bubbles growing & bubbles bursting -I have these periods showing up quite clearly on other charts and can post them if anyone is interested). Both periods also suffered around a 50% decline (so far for current crash).
> 
> ...




Updated charts - playing the game so far.


----------



## Timmy (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiest said:


> I have no charts or evidence to back it up,




Well, there is a lot of that about.


----------



## explod (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Timmy said:


> I am not sure I follow you here explod, but this is the timeline, which may answer your question?
> 
> All New York times (not the newspaper!):
> 
> ...




It does but shoots my theory in the foot.

Thanks for posting that out.

Cheers explod


----------



## tech/a (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks reasonable 4s


----------



## Boggo (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Updated charts - playing the game so far.




Interesting stuff nomore4s.

This is MTPredictors auto routine take on it. The last two Wave C turning points were predicted accurately, lets see if it powers on through this time.

My stops are all adjusted and tight at the moment.

(click to expand)


----------



## beamstas (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Boggo;
When you say the last points were "predicted" accurately, do you mean they actually were predicted before they happened?


----------



## MRC & Co (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Just wondering if any other traders are entertaining the idea of last friday night's US action and jobs data as a blow off top in the markets? A kind of sucker rally.
> 
> There was a fair bit of volume in the peaks of the ES YM and etfs after the jobs news, and the USD climbed significantly, which can happen around tops.
> The ES fell into the close falling 8 points off the HOD. We'll see I guess.




I was thinking the same going into the figures Broadway, assumed a bad figure would get massacred (considering this is the last area that still needs to be stabilized), but had information the figure would be better than expected, so I dumped a few contracts in there short after the figure and subsequent spike, but didn't get what I wanted, I wanted to see more selling pressure actually go down and hit the bid following the spike.

On the 60 minute, this is a perfect buy zone, hitting the top of the recent sideways zone on the retest (talking about S&P in all of this, but XAO relates pretty closely).  Not to mention, the way the Euro tanked well and truly back through the top of that recent sideways zone, leads me to believe the correlation is shot.  USD as a flight to safety has now left the radar.  Will have to see how this plays out this wk, but it's what I will be looking for.

Shorts covered at the close for a 5 point loss, so not too bad considering.  And got a USD long on.  

Note:  A USD long should perform better in various environments.  If the correlation has broken down, and equities continue to rally, so should the USD.  If however, this was just a shock but not enough to break it, and we do get a pullback in equities, the USD should rally.  Of course, it could work the other way too (but this would fly in the face of the reason the correlation broke down in the first place), so I see it as less likely.  A situation to keep very closely monitored.  It's been said before countless times, but these are truly interesting and exciting times.


----------



## Boggo (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> Boggo;
> When you say the last points were "predicted" accurately, do you mean they actually were predicted before they happened?




Yes, based on the current pattern it projects a likely outcome if it "plays by the rules"

Slight thread drift, example using RCR on 31/07 showing likely target (ignore the entry/exit bits)

(click to enlarge)


----------



## white_goodman (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Note:  A USD long should perform better in various environments.  If the correlation has broken down, and equities continue to rally, so should the USD.  If however, this was just a shock but not enough to break it, and we do get a pullback in equities, the USD should rally.  Of course, it could work the other way too (but this would fly in the face of the reason the correlation broke down in the first place), so I see it as less likely.  A situation to keep very closely monitored.  It's been said before countless times, but these are truly interesting and exciting times.




theres some strong weekly signals of USD strength coming in... particularly the GBPUSD which im following... I had previously said I expected the correlation to break down, lets see if this thing starts to crack


----------



## MRC & Co (8 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> ... I had previously said I expected the correlation to break down, lets see if this thing starts to crack




So had I, to the downside 

I got the idea right and I even picked the exact moment (thought it would happen on NFPs), but the wrong damn way!  

Lucky for those stat arb guys getting it even more wrong than me!  Gave me a free ride the other way!


----------



## Naked shorts (9 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> theres some strong weekly signals of USD strength coming in... particularly the GBPUSD which im following... I had previously said I expected the correlation to break down, lets see if this thing starts to crack




Take note of the GBPJPY correlation break away from EURUSD as-well. Total flight to risker assets took place after NFP (and all the other news that came out that day (AIG posting a profit!)). Interesting to note that any bad news coming out now is pretty much shrugged off...


----------



## Boggo (9 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Back on the XAO, a potentially significant difference not shown on my earlier chart is noted on the chart below.

(click to expand)


----------



## Broadway (9 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> but had information the figure would be better than expected.




Got an interesting chart of the sycom leading up to the news release.

I think you werent alone in that 'better than expected' camp.

USD longs should do well.


----------



## MRC & Co (9 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> I think you werent alone in that 'better than expected' camp.
> 
> USD longs should do well.




Yes, the camp I get the data from also advise most IBs, CBs and the Squawk gets the info too.  So it's pretty well know if it will be better or worse than expectations (expectations of expectations ) beforehand and some take the gamble to position for it obviously.  

USD longs should do well indeed, this for me is a high conviction trade, so on that note, the leverage is excessive!


----------



## CamKawa (10 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some are betting this rally is about to end. Bring it on. Go the bears!

VIX Shows S&P 500 Swoon in September as Worst Month Approaches 

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are increasing bets that the steepest rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since the 1930s won’t survive September, historically the worst month for U.S. equities. 

Traders are betting the VIX, a gauge of expected stock swings, will increase 13 percent in the next five weeks, according to futures prices compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the biggest spread since August 2008, right before the S&P 500 suffered the steepest two-month plunge in 21 years. The indexes have moved in the opposite direction 81 percent of the time over the past five years, Bloomberg data show.


----------



## ivant (11 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On a side note, does anyone know why there was a rally from 1.30 onwards. News from Asia?


----------



## Broadway (11 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> On a side note, does anyone know why there was a rally from 1.30 onwards. News from Asia?




Ill have a go at the answer.

There was alot of data released today at lunch from China and Japan.

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

But none of it seemed better than expected.

Possibly BHP related. (reports tomorrow I think-might be getting better than expected results) The dips in bhp today attracted volume. see chart.

Plus NAB business confidence at 1130 today was better than last time. Maybe delayed rally after the data.

Also there was significant LOD volume on the major asian index futures charts today at lunchtime eg HSI.

Copper and oil took off at that time as well.

There was also some large trades in the spi which I interpret as bullish but others would argue not.
Anyway hope that helps.


----------



## ivant (11 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Im a n00b but Ill have a go at the answer.
> 
> There was alot of data released today at lunch from China and Japan.
> 
> ...




Thanks man. Yea I was a little surprised by that. We lifted like a chopper out of nowhere. I get the feeling its more of a technical move (there was some support in a short-term channel there). I know the move wasn't massive, but futures closed above the previous highs. Interesting stuff. I guess yesterday's less-than-logical move was reversed.


----------



## Real1ty (11 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It is safe to venture out of your caves Bears.....

Get out in the fresh air and romp and stomp, stretch those tight limbs, butt heads with some Bulls, they are tired and weakened from too much gorging.

It is your time to shine, at least for the time being....


----------



## Dark1975 (12 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> It is safe to venture out of your caves Bears.....
> 
> Get out in the fresh air and romp and stomp, stretch those tight limbs, butt heads with some Bulls, they are tired and weakened from too much gorging.
> 
> It is your time to shine, at least for the time being....




haha nice call,Yeah agreed the dow opened 63 down which i spose its a bit early to call,But looking at the gloom news on jobs in the u.s,It looks like the dow will fall today.Now currently 84 points down.


----------



## Dark1975 (12 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

DOW JONES: please note: Just like to compare dow with xao





The graphs above:The dow and the xao
Note on the xao,its my personal view that with the stochastic Oscillator is close to the top as of today,It's my view that the market will either go sideways for a few days,But im thinking the xao will make a correction within the week and go downwards.
Well that's my view! Like to hear from other traders view of the upcoming month of the xao?
Sorry the thread is a bit messy,Missing alot of things e.g : resistance levels,it's late and im so tired.


----------



## Broadway (12 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> I was thinking the same going into the figures Broadway, assumed a bad figure would get massacred (considering this is the last area that still needs to be stabilized), but had information the figure would be better than expected, so I dumped a few contracts in there short after the figure and subsequent spike, but didn't get what I wanted, I wanted to see more selling pressure actually go down and hit the bid following the spike.
> 
> On the 60 minute, this is a perfect buy zone, hitting the top of the recent sideways zone on the retest (talking about S&P in all of this, but XAO relates pretty closely).  Not to mention, the way the Euro tanked well and truly back through the top of that recent sideways zone, leads me to believe the correlation is shot.  USD as a flight to safety has now left the radar.  Will have to see how this plays out this wk, but it's what I will be looking for.
> 
> ...




Looks tonight like those good job numbers friday night were a good excuse to have a 'blow off top'. And maybe the USD is still a flight to safety indicator.
Im hoping for support around ES 990 (spi 4275), it has been a strong s/r line for the last 2 weeks.


----------



## MRC & Co (12 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Looks tonight like those good job numbers friday night were a good excuse to have a 'blow off top'. And maybe the USD is still a flight to safety indicator.
> Im hoping for support around ES 990 (spi 4275), it has been a strong s/r line for the last 2 weeks.




Yeh, tonight was the first decent fall in quite some time, without immediate buying of dips.  

I'm not so sure the USD 'flight to safety' trade is still in play.  It appears so when you watch intraday, but the big moves happen independently.  If I'm not mistaken last night (first night after the correlation breakdown), S&P was up, Euro down, and tonight S&P down, Euro up.  Still think the long USD and short S&P play is the best trade out there, only one way to loose and that would defy all reasoning behind recent price action.  

990 good call, I actually was watching the same level and bought oil earlier (those cagey pit traders will usually berg the bid, pre-empting the bounce in S&P), was holding up well and I was quite proud that I was pre-empting the pre-empters, but then they swept it down 40 ticks!!!!    Should have just stuck to the S&P long!


----------



## surfziggy (12 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

>Yeh, tonight was the first decent fall in quite some time, without immediate buying of dips. 

I reckon it's just a few nerves before the fed announcement this evening and ahead of the treasury auction. If that is all as 'expected' then I reckon we'll see another move up back to the previous highs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

I think it's just more of a wait and see attitude causing traders to hold off. Last three days have declining volume on the DJ I notice.


----------



## MRC & Co (12 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



surfziggy said:


> >Yeh, tonight was the first decent fall in quite some time, without immediate buying of dips.
> 
> I reckon it's just a few nerves before the fed announcement this evening and ahead of the treasury auction. If that is all as 'expected' then I reckon we'll see another move up back to the previous highs.




Depends what you expect to see out of the Fed?  

Treasury auctions have been running for a long time now, and there are auctions nearly every night in their big weeks, which one are you talking about?


----------



## surfziggy (13 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just the reaction to it. That and the reaction to the feds comments on interest rates. Which by the looks of things today was good!

Looks to me that we're in a continued uptrend and until that changes I'm bullish. Of course it depends on your time frame! And yours may be different from mine.


----------



## Aussiest (13 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> there are auctions nearly every night in their big weeks




MRC, how to you find out about those auctions? Can you see them live?

Cheers,

Oz


----------



## Broadway (13 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey Mr C,
I have a hunch from volume today in Asia that tonight's round of US data, jobs and retail, might be 'worse than expected' and maybe a down night by the end.

Have you heard anything?

thx.

ps. Aussiest, try this site for some brief discussion of nightly auctions and how they went. Not sure about live results.
http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update


----------



## gfresh (13 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

2400 any moment now.. any moment..


----------



## Aussiest (13 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> ps. Aussiest, try this site for some brief discussion of nightly auctions and how they went.
> http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update




Thanks Broadway


----------



## MRC & Co (13 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Aussiest, Squawk reads the results to auctions out live, you can also see them if you pay for Reuters or Bloomberg.

This is some very odd price action lately, particularly the USD/equities correlatioin.  After the fed, USD rallied (obviously as no more T buying and hence, better rate differentials) with equities remaining choppy, but then USD came off again. Have a pretty hedged portfolio now, so will just ride this one out. 

Broadway, will get back to you on the data tonight.


----------



## Aussiest (13 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Aussiest, Squawk reads the results to auctions out live, you can also see them if you pay for Reuters or Bloomberg.
> 
> This is some very odd price action lately, particularly the USD/equities correlatioin.  After the fed, USD rallied with equities remaining choppy, but then USD came off again.  Obviously as no more T buying and hence, better rate differentials.
> 
> Broadway, will get back to you on the data tonight.




Thanks MRC  

That all sounds like a foreign language to me, but gives me more to research!


----------



## white_goodman (13 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

yeh i thought the correlation had changed aswell MRC, but with USD wekaness today and USD futures pointing up heavily, the correlation seems to have resumed... I have a mix of 2 shorts and one long on the NYSE atm (although 2 are at breakeven) , I think we will see some clarity in September


----------



## MRC & Co (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> I think we will see some clarity in September




Yes, I can't wait until the end of Northern Hemisphere summer, things are getting very confused and messed up at the moment.  

Yes, it's clear the runner I expected probably won't happen immediately, but still want the position, so hedging it with an asset class that will perform well in both inflationary/risk trade environments.


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I guess this means ivant has lost all his money.


----------



## Broadway (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> 2400 any moment now.. any moment..




Amazing that we are starting a new leg up again.

Doom and gloom bears and those calling for a 'depression for a decade' have rapidly gone into hibernation, licking wounds on the way. 

If I was a fund manager that was waiting for a decent pullback to get on, I would be steaming.


----------



## skyQuake (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Pity... Easy come easy go? 
Preservation of capital more important than being _right_ or making bucketloads on a call.


----------



## tech/a (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Preservation of capital more important than being right or making bucketloads on a call.




Preservation of capital I agree.
But trading in anticipation of both profit and preservation may be just as important.


----------



## prawn_86 (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I guess this means ivant has lost all his money.




Probably owes the ATO, so may even be in debt...


----------



## Aussiest (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I guess this means ivant has lost all his money.




I just cringe at the thought...


----------



## skyQuake (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prawn_86 said:


> Probably owes the ATO, so may even be in debt...




Yeah that sucks, making lots in 1 FY, then losing it in the next.


----------



## white_goodman (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

http://www.dowgoldzoom.com/images/dow_gold_zoom.pdf

some more food for thought here with a nice gold v dow comparison.

Look at early 1930's and early 1980's.


----------



## Aussiest (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Who's game for a short?


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Yeah that sucks, making lots in 1 FY, then losing it in the next.



Bankruptcy might be an option.


----------



## Sunder (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiest said:


> Who's game for a short?




I can tell you my finger is on the the sell button. It's like that card game "spoons" where the last person to grab the spoon loses, but a person who grabs a spoon for no reason also loses...


----------



## skyQuake (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Moar insto buying today, stay long. If you wanna short, maybe a punt on the close.


----------



## white_goodman (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ill be shorting US market in coming days or weeks. Im very unconvinced with this rally.

Meaning, you should all go long and make some cash


----------



## gfresh (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Fair way to fill to next resistance at ~4600. Volume yesterday was 2nd largest ever..

our banks are starting to reach P/E of 16x .. unless the insto's are going to bid them up into the 20's on expectation of a big profit increase next year.. I think that has to slow down soon.


----------



## cutz (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Yeah that sucks, making lots in 1 FY, then losing it in the next.




Surely there must be some sort of dipensation if he can show the ATO what has become of his situation, anyway feel sorry for the guy to wreck an account in such a public way, another reason i prefer keep my positions to myself, ego and trading aren't a good mix.


----------



## white_goodman (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cutz said:


> Surely there must be some sort of dipensation if he can show the ATO what has become of his situation, anyway feel sorry for the guy to wreck an account in such a public way, another reason i prefer keep my positions to myself, ego and trading aren't a good mix.




disclosing positions shouldnt be an issue if correct money mangement is used. I do it with every trade I take now, I have no problems being wrong.

I do have problems being wrong and losing my whole account however


----------



## mazzatelli (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I noticed he hasn't updated his returns since the end of June
I hope all is well


----------



## cutz (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> disclosing positions shouldnt be an issue if correct money mangement is used.




Exactly, but i still reckon the blokes public position had a negative influence on his decision making, he was waiting to be proven correct.


----------



## ivant (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lol no I haven't lost all my money. A big hit, definitely. Interesting you say 4600, I would have thought here at 4520 then 4640-50?

On a side note, S&P futs are looking at retesting the high of around the 1019 mark. That means we have gained about 150 or so points against the S&P over the last week or so.  

On a side note, what makes you all so confident that I won't make back the money I lost? Lol.


----------



## ivant (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cutz said:


> Exactly, but i still reckon the blokes public position had a negative influence on his decision making, he was waiting to be proven correct.




Actually this is true. This is why I have stopped updating the blog for a while.


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> On a side note, what makes you all so confident that I won't make back the money I lost? Lol.



The house always wins in the end.


----------



## wayneL (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Only muppets believe returns quoted on blogs anyway.


----------



## investorpaul (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This rally has me confused from a non technical point of view and from read/disussing the market what i currently see is that some people have been saying it will reverse now, oops not then maybe now, oops wrong again maybe now, dam it didnt go down maybe it will now.

Finally some of these people have gone oops, I should have been long and have/will jump in after this we will see a correction.

As a post further up the page mentioned banks are now showing P/E's of 16+ there cannot be much room for further growth unless there is a lift in earnings, otherwise P/E's will start approaching the high teens to twentys.

It is however true that the economy doesnt appear to be as bad as first predicted. I have been keeping an eye out for a trigger that could send the market down but everytime key figures or statements are released they have been positive/viewed as positive.


----------



## wayneL (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



investorpaul said:


> This rally has me confused from a non technical point of view and from read/disussing the market what i currently see is that some people have been saying it will reverse now, oops not then maybe now, oops wrong again maybe now, dam it didnt go down maybe it will now.
> 
> Finally some of these people have gone oops, I should have been long and have/will jump in after this we will see a correction.
> 
> ...




Paul

The only fundamental is credit. 

As warned, Uncle Ben and fellow CBers are shovelling it out of helicopters.


----------



## Timmy (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> The only fundamental is credit.




Wayne, do you remember the newspaper article you linked with this in it?  I was looking for that post & the link - really worth re-reading and putting in the context of what is happening now, as you say.


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



investorpaul said:


> As a post further up the page mentioned banks are now showing P/E's of 16+ there cannot be much room for further growth unless there is a lift in earnings, otherwise P/E's will start approaching the high teens to twentys.



So, the market is factoring in future earnings gains. Just like it was factoring losses some time ago. BHP was under 10 at one point. IPL on 4 or something. Make your own call as to where the market is _going_ to be ahead of the curve.


----------



## Aussiest (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Moar insto buying today, stay long. If you wanna short, maybe a punt on the close.




Without revealing your sources skyQuake, how do you know the institutions are buying?

My guesses would be:

1. Market Depth - seeing largish orders, eg, 25,000 units, going into the market?

2. "Announcements" made on behalf of company - eg, _CBA becoming "substantial holder" for MOF_

Anything else?!


----------



## wayneL (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Timmy said:


> Wayne, do you remember the newspaper article you linked with this in it?  I was looking for that post & the link - really worth re-reading and putting in the context of what is happening now, as you say.




Timmy, 

I remember it was Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph. Let me see if I can find it.


----------



## investorpaul (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> So, the market is factoring in future earnings gains. Just like it was factoring losses some time ago. BHP was under 10 at one point. IPL on 4 or something. Make your own call as to where the market is _going_ to be ahead of the curve.




I agree that it overshot when the market was crashing (based on what is now known). However I do believe the market is now factoring in earnings gains that will be hard to achieve and has over shot in this rally.

I believe the market will reverse at some point (not sure when), but it will not hit the march lows. After a pull back, it will trade sideways for 6 months plus until everyone figures out what is a realistic scenario for economic and company growth.

My opinion only.


----------



## Timmy (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Timmy,
> 
> I remember it was Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph. Let me see if I can find it.




Thanks Wayne - will hit Google myself too.


----------



## wayneL (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Timmy said:


> Thanks Wayne - will hit Google myself too.



http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/3672921/The_sky_has_already_fallen/

Found it.


----------



## drsmith (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> http://www.dowgoldzoom.com/images/dow_gold_zoom.pdf
> 
> some more food for thought here with a nice gold v dow comparison.
> 
> Look at early 1930's and early 1980's.



The two previous major cycles suggest the higher it goes the harder it falls and if history repeats we still have some way to go to hit the bottom on that ratio.

It's interesting that the early 30's contraction was much shorter than the late 60's/70's where the contraction in the ratio was during a period of high inflation. The impact on the dow was therefore much less in nominal terms than it was in inflation adjusted terms.

http://www.dogsofthedow.com/dow1925cpilog.htm

In terms of time scale the current Dow/Gold downturn looks like being something in between but if history does repeat (in terms of the bottom value) then a return to inflation will be required if the Dow is not to reach a new nominal low.


----------



## Dark1975 (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I can see from a tech view it seems to be a new leg up,And have been following the trend with gains in the last two weeks.But i have a gut feeling with too much confidence in the air that this is deja vu(meaning that i've been burnt before buying at the top end of the market.)
The quote "Be fearful when everbody is greedy"(short end buffet quote)keeps buzzing in my head.I think ill just take it from day to day i guess!


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Quite a few references popping up to previous corrections and the Great Depression and how we must likely follow.

Why?

Is it a psychological thing?

Or, are the conditions the same?


----------



## cutz (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> The quote "Be fearful when everbody is greedy"




Hi Dark1975,

Yeah that quote needs to taken with a grain of salt, it's just another one of those throwaway lines, i.e who's game enough to lay on big unhedged shorts now, but it certainly appears that the market is overcooked at the moment.


----------



## Timmy (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/3672921/The_sky_has_already_fallen/
> 
> Found it.




Thanks Wayne - good stuff.


----------



## drsmith (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Quite a few references popping up to previous corrections and the Great Depression and how we must likely follow.
> 
> Why?
> 
> ...



There's a lot of room between the the Dow hitting a new nominal low in the current cycle and the ~90% fall experienced during the great depression.

What I find interesting about the Dow/gold ratio chart is the magnitude of the fall was larger in the late 60's/70's than it was in the early 30's but the duration of the fall was much longer. The latter combined with inflation helped to cushion the impact on the Dow in nominal terms during that cycle. The duration current downtrend in the Dow/gold ratio graph is allready longer than that for the early 30's so on that comparison alone we are not following the same path as the great depression.


----------



## Dark1975 (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cutz said:


> Hi Dark1975,
> 
> Yeah that quote needs to taken with a grain of salt, it's just another one of those throwaway lines, i.e who's game enough to lay on big unhedged shorts now, but it certainly appears that the market is overcooked at the moment.




Agreed with your comments,Yeah the market is over cooked,But a great point you made in which makes a valid point: who's game to short the market at the moment.
]
cheers


----------



## waz (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I had a feeling that 4500 would be the turning point today, but didnt want to post anything for fear of embarresment. hehe

I got burned yesterday shorting before close, thinking we would get back to 4400 in the post market rounding off period, but then the german gdp figures came out, pushing up commodities, DOH. Lost 20 pips.

Anyways, as soon as I noticed Hong Kong going down I went short au200 again.
Todays short trade has done well, although yesterday I stupidly took a large position 4 times larger then what I took today. So I have only clawed back 25% of the money I lost yesterday. I wanted to take a larger position, but my emotions got the better of me.

Lesson to be learned: I should have waited till the end of the week to short the market.

FYI: 1016 is supposed the be the 38% retracement figure for the S&P 500.
Im also short on that, planning to exit at 1001.
Lets see if im a hero or zero tomorrow morning.


----------



## bugmenot (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



waz said:


> I had a feeling that 4500 would be the turning point today, but didnt want to post anything for fear of embarresment. hehe
> 
> I got burned yesterday shorting before close, thinking we would get back to 4400 in the post market rounding off period, but then the german gdp figures came out, pushing up commodities, DOH. Lost 20 pips.
> 
> ...




Good point regarding SP500.. Chekout this graph




I am going to exit some of my long positions next week and take profit.


----------



## Wysiwyg (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I got that e-mail too.


----------



## MRC & Co (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiest said:


> Anything else?!




lol, I think that is the right guess.  

An anything else that you won't be able to find out about unless you 'know people that know people'.


----------



## Awesomandy (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> Agreed with your comments,Yeah the market is over cooked,But a great point you made in which makes a valid point: who's game to short the market at the moment.




The problem is though, those who have tried to do so got burnt (unless they timed it just right. I lost almost half of my account this week, which is a bit of a minor inconvenience as I'm not planning to fund it at all. (The account is only small - I keep a large portion of my collateral elsewhere).


----------



## Timmy (14 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> I lost almost half of my account this week, which is a bit of a minor inconvenience




Yes, I imagine it would be.


----------



## wayneL (15 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Any shorters heaving a sigh of relief?


----------



## waz (15 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ching ching, s&p 500 dropped from 1016 to 997, I don't feel embarrassed any more. Looks like I am a hero now 

Although i wished I held onto my shorts in au200 from 4500. I only made 20pips when I could have made 100 pips. Doh, Im still down for the week.

Still, my lesson learned was that I should have waited till friday and not thursday to go heavy on the index shorts. I have no one to blame but myself.

Looks like s&p500 will close below 1000 for the week, this could mark the end of the bull run of the last 6 weeks.
If the s&p falls to 950ish, another 5%, that could mean the au200 will prob only fall to 4200, unless commodities fall heavily, which will happen eventually. I doubt oil will be above $70 for some time. Gold is still to drop below $950.


----------



## tech/a (15 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> unless commodities *fall heavily*, which will happen eventually




Why?
Demand is increasing/prices are rising/AUD is strong/Inventory is average.


----------



## tasmanian (15 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I wouldnt like to be short atm.I think your risk is too high.

The trend is now up.Trying to pick the top will most likely just put a dent in your account.For now the market is saying be long and stay long imo.Until a downtrend is confirmed your going to make money being in the market and buying stocks not trying to pick a top

.good luck with being short but just be careful you dont get burnt.


----------



## micksof (15 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am not one to be posting on forums as I enjoy to sit back and just see what you guys think. 

However after being a long time( 20 odd years) market observer and trader, I thought I might just add my  worth here.

1: This is not a new bull market
2: After a huge runup since July 14(Not sure if any one here knows this date  was forecast by Larry Pesavento from as early as April- excellent call he is simply the best), I think both the All Ordinaries and US markets will will enter a consolidation period lasting quite a few months before putting in new rally highs by no later than may next year before the larger bearishness continues. 

I reduced my holdings on Friday

What do you guys think?


----------



## gfresh (15 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



waz said:


> Looks like s&p500 will close below 1000 for the week, this could mark the end of the bull run of the last 6 weeks.




Nope, long tail indicates buying into the close.. I don't know why people are "guessing" at the pullback and just throwing shorts at the wall and hope some stick. Wouldn't one wait until a close with support becoming resistance at 990 before entering any serious shorts?  Oh, what tasmanian said 



micksof said:


> However after being a long time( 20 odd years) market observer and trader, I thought I might just add my  worth here.
> 
> 1: This is not a new bull market




What makes you say this? What are your indications that it is not, to spark discussion.


----------



## Broadway (15 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't think the bulls have given up yet. (in a short term time frame).
The support around es low 990s held again last night. With a fair bit of volume in US stocks and etfs at the us lod (around midnight sydney time.)
Buying into the close seemed fairly bullish.
But bears are really trying hard now.
Really pushing the market down at the sign of any bad news.


----------



## tasmanian (15 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My gut feeling says this is not a new bull market.However the market will do whatever it wants.Anyone that says what this new trend is or isnt is only guessing.Noone knows.

Maybe it is a new bull run?Why not?Who would have thought the market was going to be back at near 3000pts 2 years ago?Alot of people are saying this rally has gone too far.Those were probaly saying the last downtrend was going to turn at 6000,5000 oh no 4000 its gone too far has too stop soon? Im not going to guess.While the trend is up jump on.

Maybe we have hit a high for this rally?I dont know.It doesnt look that way imo it looks like we have had a decent upmove and are consolidating possibly for another upleg.Ill stay long and see what happens whilst there is no bad signs around.

Have a few down days is good for a trend to regather strength and get rid of the weaker hands.This is when you either make money or big money.If your sitting on some nice profits due to this uptrend the natural urge is too sell and lock in those profits.Hold tight and those profits can be alot bigger.Trends like this dont come around every month.

Look at a chart of the dow or xao.The trend is up and  strongly and has only paused for consolidation for now.Time will tell if it breaks back up or down.The xao only broke out upwards again this week.

Just remember some of the biggest rallies are after bear markets.People say we have gone up 50% too fast.So what we are still a mile off old highs.No reason this market can rally to 5000+ in the coming months.

Let the market tell you what to do.Either thats being long,short or sitting on the sidleines having a break and refreshing the batteries when the next oppurtunity presents itself.

Good luck.Whatever happens will happen just be prepared for whatever the market decides it wants to do and try to profit from that.


----------



## wayneL (15 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bull market?

Depends on the degree. There are secular and cyclical bulls and bulls of smaller degree I'm just not pedantic enough to know the name of.

Viewed from March till now certainly looks pretty bloody bullish to me. Taking a few steps back and the view is more uncertain.


----------



## $20shoes (15 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



micksof said:


> 1: This is not a new bull market




If you think about reversion, then in terms of volatility, we are still in a period of contraction, in which significant retracements of the bear run are possible (and probable). 

Although you'd be very late to the party if you tried to trade this definition, a bull run should be hitting the upper bands through buying pressure; then  having a reactive correction, and then continuing to climb those upper bands. 

You can see on the weekly Bollinger Bandwidth (lower pane) that the volatility is still excessive in terms of an historical mean, that it is still contracting, and that the price action is not yet pushing those upper bands.

I can see a move to 4900 as a possibility within this run, before a very lengthy range or more likely a swing back down to touch the lower green band.


----------



## micksof (15 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi guys,

Thanks for your thoughts. I too still maintain a bullish bias for this market until  April/May next year, however have lightened up on my holdings as I feel we will be starting a pullback soon and then a sideways consolidation in the coming months. This might be a good time to buy back at a discount before the next leg up, which I am expecting to take us to between 4960-5150.

WayneL, I agree with you about this being a secular bear, for there is nothing to suggest we have started a new Long Term Bull Market.

If one looks at some of the worst bear markets in history, from Dow Jones crash of 1929 to the Japanese experience in the 1990’s, there where great rallies back then too, these rallies made up anything between 50-61% of the decline that preceded them.
However in the end these rallies were erased.

Gfresh, the indicator I use for secular bulls and bears is the Long Term DOW/Gold Ratio that was discussed earlier. Historically this ratio has hit between as a low of 1-5 before a new bull market started. Presently it is 9.7 and I suspect it will climb to about 11 when this rally completes. You can see in the chart, that last 2 valleys occurred approximately 40 years apart. If market continues with this rhythm, then next valley will be at approximately 2019/2020. The 2 peaks have been between 34-37 years apart(fib no?) and if this rhythm is maintained then the next bull market peak will be approximately 2034. If the Dow/Gold ratio finally makes it to between 1-5, then Gold and the Dow will be approaching parity at some point.

This points to a continuation of the secular bull in Gold to about 2019. I am banking on a brief  “decoupling” of the Australian Dollar relative to Gold in terms of direction of movement between now then which might set up an excellent trade in physical Gold, similar to what happened in the late 1979-1980.


----------



## MRC & Co (15 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Why?
> Demand is increasing/prices are rising/AUD is strong/Inventory is average.




Portfolio reshuffling from Asia to West (only short-term, due to Chinese talk of monetary policy tweaking).

Risk averse bid, higher USD, bond markets.  Falling risk assets, commodities, equities.  

Falling AUD, odd the talk of rising rates saw an AUD sell-off, if by bond markets alone, aggressive tightening is already priced in (which would mean it was probably priced into the AUD too).  

Inventories such as crude oil, have been poor lately, surplus to expectations.


----------



## Dark1975 (17 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking at the Dow futures currently @ -176.00.Havn't seen it that negative for a while. News on cnn money.com for tomorrow quote"Futures dive as investors worldwide retreat amid growing anxiety about strength of the global recovery".
I said the turning point was coming this week on the previous thread,Maybe jumping the gun a bit.But i think the correction will take place in these coming weeks.
I wish i could post a cartoon of a big bear rear-ending a bull.


----------



## CamKawa (17 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> Looking at the Dow futures currently @ -176.00.Havn't seen it that negative for a while.



Futures are now down -193 points, someone’s sh1tting themselves big time.



Dark1975 said:


> I wish i could post a cartoon of a big bear rear-ending a bull.


----------



## Real1ty (17 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> Futures are now down -193 points, someone’s sh1tting themselves big time.




Yet when they are up 193 it's just ridiculous 



CamKawa said:


>




Could be a bit of premature ejac....ooops, elation there 

There has been buying before the close on all these down days so it might be a bit early for bigger players to be sh1tting themselves yet.

Of course this could be just the start but only time will tell.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (17 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thats mine!!


----------



## skyQuake (17 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> Looking at the Dow futures currently @ -176.00.Havn't seen it that negative for a while. News on cnn money.com for tomorrow quote"Futures dive as investors worldwide retreat amid growing anxiety about strength of the global recovery".
> I said the turning point was coming this week on the previous thread,Maybe jumping the gun a bit.But i think the correction will take place in these coming weeks.
> I wish i could post a cartoon of a big bear rear-ending a bull.




If its on money.com, then the gap's gonna get filled and dow will prob close green


----------



## Dark1975 (17 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> Futures are now down -193 points, someone’s sh1tting themselves big time.




haha. Cheers mate that's the picture i was looking for.


----------



## Awesomandy (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> If its on money.com, then the gap's gonna get filled and dow will prob close green




That's my feeling too. Perhaps not green at the end of the day, but my gut says it won't go lower than what it is at the moment. I don't trade the dow, but here goes a gut-trade - opened a small long on the dow with a tight stop, and off to bed I go. Wouldn't mind hitching a ride on pure luck and hopefully getting some spare change in the morning.


----------



## moXJO (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> If its on money.com, then the gap's gonna get filled and dow will prob close green




I closed some shorts on the dow, so it will probably drop 400 points or so tonight and another 1000 this week.


----------



## white_goodman (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

IN before CNBC says it was Monday Profit taking lol haha, wonder how the perma media bulls will spin today/this week


----------



## ivant (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

still low volume. id expect this to get at least 50% filled by close. during october there is no chance this will be happening. for now, its probably still early days for the bears. i learnt my lesson last week haha.


----------



## Dark1975 (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> If its on money.com, then the gap's gonna get filled and dow will prob close green




I see no green shoots


----------



## Sunder (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> IN before CNBC says it was Monday Profit taking lol haha, wonder how the perma media bulls will spin today/this week




Wow... What a turn around we had today... Maybe yesterday was mostly profit taking. 

Now that I've said this, we're going to turn aroudn again after lunch and close deep in the red.


----------



## surfziggy (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> still low volume. id expect this to get at least 50% filled by close. during october there is no chance this will be happening. for now, its probably still early days for the bears. i learnt my lesson last week haha.




So have you flipped your position now Ivan? I'm thinking this isn't that bad (yet). If we head higher from here it will look fine, but a few more days down or consolidating would be nice.


----------



## outback (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Wow... What a turn around we had today... Maybe yesterday was mostly profit taking.
> 
> Now that I've said this, we're going to turn aroudn again after lunch and close deep in the red.




Now you've said that after saying that, are we going to see a rise?


----------



## Sean K (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



outback said:


> Now you've said that after saying that, are we going to see a rise?



Probably only if it goes up.


----------



## Sunder (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like it shook off lows, but didn't make it into the green a second time.

Oh well. Small loss is better than a big loss. At the worst of the day it was only a few points from hitting my stop.


----------



## skyQuake (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This fall looks like just traders sellings, and weak hands being shaken out. Don't think too many funds are selling out yet.


----------



## gfresh (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nope.. that is why I'm not that convinced we'll have a massive correction or go on to make any lower low. 

Only traders selling out. The institutionals aren't so easily spooked to dump everything at the drop of a hat. Seeing as most of them go long anyhow, those hundreds of fundies wouldn't have much to do now would they.


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



gfresh said:


> Nope.. that is why I'm not that convinced we'll have a massive correction or go on to make any lower low.




Yes to that most likely scenario. 

I heard on Bloomberg that American pension funds have been on the sidelines during this rally and no doubt there would be other money pools wanting in.

Agreement (via)


----------



## MRC & Co (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So who was selling off all those better than expected figures......traders?  

I would think insto trading would be more likely to be dumping into strength.

Re-test of 990 tonight before coming off further.............


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> I would think insto trading would be more likely to be dumping into strength.
> 
> Re-test of 990 tonight before coming off further.............




Agree with this, dump in strength, buy in weakness.


----------



## white_goodman (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

all i know is from what im reading on COT data and market correlations, its due for a bit of a dive


----------



## skyQuake (18 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry, meant this recent dip and the past few days. Sales & trading desks been pretty quiet with no big orders either way.


----------



## MRC & Co (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Sorry, meant this recent dip and the past few days. Sales & trading desks been pretty quiet with no big orders either way.




Interesting Quake.

The markets do look very confused to me at this point.  I'm tentatively bearish, but may flip that as of Thursday.


----------



## Dark1975 (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not much volume in the market today.For e.g BHP at present time has traded $173m(where at this time in a general market bhp is trading around 280m-330m).Looks like  alot of traders are not convinced with low volume trading on the dow last night.
I personally sold alot of stock today (profit taking).Not quite sure to know if the market is consolidating for a new leg up or down.Im personally not confident in the market at the moment,I might take the profits i have made and hold out for a few days for a clearer picture.


----------



## Aussiest (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> I personally sold alot of stock today (profit taking).Not quite sure to know if the market is consolidating for a new leg up or down.Im personally not confident in the market at the moment,I might take the profits i have made and hold out for a few days for a clearer picture.




It's a tough one. One one hand, it's there for the taking, on the other, wouldn't want to miss a leg up. I'm holding out for the EOD...


----------



## Dark1975 (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wow panic has set in at the end of trading,alot of selling,Seems not ALOT of confidence in the market at the moment.
And if the dow tanks tonight,there will be a massive pullback tomorrow,Seems to me the correction is taking place now.


----------



## Real1ty (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> Wow *panic* has set in at the end of trading,*alot* of selling,Seems not ALOT of confidence in the market at the moment.




You are kidding right?


----------



## Dark1975 (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> You are kidding right?




No why? For e.g: I never seen BSL drop so quickly,Im watching the graphs of BSL/RIO/XAO with (MACD,relative strength,stochastic slow)And the down wards selling reminds me of the march lows!


----------



## Broadway (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> So who was selling off all those better than expected figures......traders?
> 
> I would think insto trading would be more likely to be dumping into strength.
> 
> Re-test of 990 tonight before coming off further.............




990 right on cue. New lower high in the ES.

First support at 982-3. Just hit, we'll see if she holds. spi about 4335.


----------



## Real1ty (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> No why? For e.g: I never seen BSL drop so quickly,im watching the graphs on BSL/RIO/XAO with (MACD,relative strength,stochastic slow)And the down wards selling reminds me of the march lows!




No offense mate but if you think that is panic and a lot of selling, you obviously haven't been in the market for very long.


----------



## beamstas (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> No why? For e.g: I never seen BSL drop so quickly,im watching the graphs on BSL/RIO/XAO with (MACD,relative strength,stochastic slow)And the down wards selling reminds me of the march lows!




Lol what a legend


----------



## Aussiest (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> No offense mate but if you think that is panic and a lot of selling, you obviously haven't been in the market for very long.




Then, how would you describe the sell off then Real1ty?

Today wasn't panic, but a bit of profit taking i guess.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone know how china's (our great hope) market is fairing today?

Should be an interesting 24 hours!


----------



## Aussiest (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> Should be an interesting 24 hours!




This is true. Heaps of ec. data out in US tonight, + Westpac L/Index and RBA stuff in Aus. Not sure how much weight Aus stuff will play...


----------



## moXJO (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> Anyone know how china's (our great hope) market is fairing today?
> 
> Should be an interesting 24 hours!




Actually posted this in another thread but might be interesting. I think China market has been factoring it in the last few weeks

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=3105309D-1871-E587-E170AAF536C0E7EB


> Recent economic growth data show the massive fiscal stimulus program instigated by the Chinese Government has provided a boost to the Chinese economy, especially in the six months to the end of the March quarter this year, but in the view of Standard Chartered there are now signs this boost is quickly fading.
> 
> This coincides with the Ministry of Finance dialing back on its monetary policy settings, making what it describes as a "moderate adjustment" without providing much detail on what this actually means. Given concerns it could mean something along the lines of increasing the deposit reserve requirement for banks or even an increase in interest rates, shares in China have sold off heavily in recent weeks.


----------



## Dark1975 (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> No offense mate but if you think that is panic and a lot of selling, you obviously haven't been in the market for very long.



No  offense taken :
Actually  been trading for six years. You looking for large selling volume from fund managers(sheep).?Cause if you waiting on large scale selling from fund managers,Well generally it's to late.The sheep only follow once a criteria of buy/sell signal hits.
Explains why our fund managers done so well for everybody this Financial year.:I'm glad im not relying on my super for retirement.


----------



## skc (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> Actually posted this in another thread but might be interesting. I think China market has been factoring it in the last few weeks
> 
> http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=3105309D-1871-E587-E170AAF536C0E7EB




Thump! That was the sound of chinese market on the afternoon open.

Sold 50% of my holdings today and yesterday... No new long trade for me until the Shanghai finds some support...


----------



## moXJO (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Thump! That was the sound of chinese market on the afternoon open.
> 
> Sold 50% of my holdings today and yesterday... No new long trade for me until the Shanghai finds some support...




Yes I'm all out at the moment- except for a leftover,  light long posi on the dow. Staying up late is burning my eyes out.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

CSI 300 INDEX	3,014.02	-157.97	-4.98%	02:36
SHANGHAI SE A SHARE INDX	2,911.70	-143.62	-4.70%	02:52
SHANGHAI SE B SHARE INDX	186.59	-6.22	-3.23%	02:53
SHENZHEN SE A SHARE INDX	969.50	-47.64	-4.68%	02:37
SHENZHEN SE B SHARE INDX	474.42	-16.96	-3.45%	02:37
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE IX	2,774.95	-135.93	-4.67%	02:52
SHENZHEN SE COMPOSITE IX	923.17	-45.22	-4.67%	02:37
SHANGHAI SE 180 A SHR IX	6,628.07	-386.06	-5.50%	02:53
SHANGHAI SE 50 A-SHR IDX	2,222.81	-120.00	-5.12%	02:53
SHENZHEN G-SHARES	4,041.87	-193.48	-4.57%	02:37
SHANGHAI G-SHARES	2,352.99	-115.68	-4.69%	02:53
SSE COMPONENT STOCK IX	11,202.46	-570.85	-4.85%	02:37

If it closes at these levels (correct me if I'm wrong) wouldn't that be a 20% correction and the start of a technical bear market??

How do you think that will be perceived by an already nervous investor counting on a stronger for longer China lead to the end of the GFC?

We have only just begun!!

Best of luck
G


----------



## Dark1975 (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Agreed with the last few posts the bears are coming out and the correction is now taking place now.Some people are waiting for fund manager's to sell so we can see larger scale volume selling!
But you got to give it a few days for them fund manger's to catch on.Cause going on the past crashes they seem to be a bit behind of events.
Then again it's not there money,no great panic yet gg


----------



## Donga (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What do you guys call a major correction? I suppose for traders a couple of hundred points can hurt if you're leveraged some. I'm struggling to see what you're seeing. I see debt, been there before. And there is economic pain still ahead, but not the depth and lows that world leaders, bankers etc were talking about earlier in the year. China cannot afford any significant slow down in growth and have the funds to drive a domestic economy, which is what they're doing. As I stated on another thread, we won't see 3900 again unless China/Asia falls in a hole (and the Shanghai dipping 20% from a high earlier in the year doesn't spook me... yet) or something like 9/11. What are your ASX major corrrection forecasts? Best of luck no matter how you play


----------



## sammy84 (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> CSI 300 INDEX	3,014.02	-157.97	-4.98%	02:36
> SHANGHAI SE A SHARE INDX	2,911.70	-143.62	-4.70%	02:52
> SHANGHAI SE B SHARE INDX	186.59	-6.22	-3.23%	02:53
> SHENZHEN SE A SHARE INDX	969.50	-47.64	-4.68%	02:37
> ...




These figures done mean much when viewed in perspective. The SC has gained over 90% this year, with pretty much no pullback.



Gordon Gekko said:


> How do you think that will be perceived by an already nervous investor counting on a stronger for longer China lead to the end of the GFC?




I doubt there are many weak holders currently, they were shaken out a while ago.


----------



## bugmenot (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Things could get ugly for those still holding long positions in September...


----------



## Gordon Gekko (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> These figures done mean much when viewed in perspective. The SC has gained over 90% this year, with pretty much no pullback.
> 
> 
> 
> I doubt there are many weak holders currently, they were shaken out a while ago.





Yes that's a good point sammy with regard to perspective.
Question:
If it has run up 90% in under a year and is now falling off a cliff over the past 2 weeks, were would you expect it to find support?
Where will the resistance come into play?

Best

G


----------



## sammy84 (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> Yes that's a good point sammy with regard to perspective.
> Question:
> If it has run up 90% in under a year and is now falling off a cliff over the past 2 weeks, were would you expect it to find support?
> Where will the resistance come into play?
> ...




I guess the is the unknown GG, for all we know it could back the 90%. I'm not to concerned about what the SC does, its a nonsensical market. It's volumes, industry sectors and the size of its moves are very different to any other market  

Budmenot look at the scale of that graph you posted, do those charts really demonstrate anything?

IMO we are in for pause/drift lower, nevertheless the bulls are still in charge.


----------



## MRC & Co (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> 990 right on cue. New lower high in the ES.
> 
> First support at 982-3. Just hit, we'll see if she holds. spi about 4335.




Yes, the deflation concerns (aided by the stats), were sure to give somewhat of a bid to bonds and hence a pullout out of 'risk assets'.  

Add in the fact that we are once again over-extended to the upside, short interest on the S&P (I think) is extremelly low.  Better than expected news has been sold off, and 990 was not only a huge level as far as previous resistance, turned support, turned resistance, but it was the 50% retracement of the previous day where 'they' closed us below the 990 level.  

Quite a bit of technical, fundamental and underlying psychological confluence there.  

I think we will either see around a 5% pullback from the high, or a move towards the previous swing high at around 955.  Not sure if we can get through there as of yet, will have to gauge sentiment along the way and see what figures come out and regulatory hints from the Govs.


----------



## MRC & Co (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Thump! That was the sound of chinese market on the afternoon open.
> 
> Sold 50% of my holdings today and yesterday... No new long trade for me until the Shanghai finds some support...




Sold today, eek.  

20% fall from the high I believe, 'technical bear market or correction', maybe a good time to buy?  The Chinese gov has the surplus and the reserves to stimulate their markets and they will.  

This should present a good chance to get long the Asian growth story and short the Western growth story for those not on it already.  Good spread to run longer-term.


----------



## white_goodman (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

is there any thinking that the market may also take a dip in September/ctober when all the independent auditors come out, combined with seasonly being a down time??

also to comment on MRC's comments (ha!) im looking to short US on weakness, long internationals on strength signals


----------



## skc (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Sold today, eek.
> 
> 20% fall from the high I believe, 'technical bear market or correction', maybe a good time to buy?  The Chinese gov has the surplus and the reserves to stimulate their markets and they will.
> 
> This should present a good chance to get long the Asian growth story and short the Western growth story for those not on it already.  Good spread to run longer-term.




Depends on what longer-term means...5-10 years, yes. In the short term, there is no Asian growth story without Western growth story imo.

The current XAO downleg feels more potent to me for several reasons.
1. Some common technical levels being reached
2. Market no longer moves up even on good news (France, Germany and Japan out of recession) - whereas it moved up on bad news (or not-as-bad news) during the rally.
3. The last leg up was the most vertical, which means it was closer to the end of the rally.
4. ivant is covering his shorts (ok that wasn't very nice, but an indicator nonetheless)

Individual shares on ASX will stay strong/hold grounds with good results, but the Oz market as a whole can't fight the rest of the world. US doesn't know we have a reporting season going on.

Most of my holdings are now takeover or right issue potentials...


----------



## enigmatic (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I would definitely agree that XAO seems to be overbought but I dont really see any need for Panic..

I'm a newbie but i would be looking more fore a break of arround 4300 and then finally after that 4150 after that i may consider bearish.

The current down turn should only be looked at as a Bullish correction especially still being above the 10day moving average.. but thats just me..


----------



## Dark1975 (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well the current futures for the dow looking very negative,And im glad i sold 95% of my portfolio(long term equities)on the xao.Time to bpay MF global to expand my CFD trading account.My view has changed to correction in ther market place.Short selling on xao tommorrow,*Should see a good pullback tomorrow on the xao.*


----------



## skyQuake (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I would be looking for longs tomorrow morning, metals and ftse rebounding as we speak


----------



## nomore4s (19 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Update on my theory, lol.

This rally looks to be on it's last legs now but I'm expecting another test of the high of this rally or maybe even a probe slightly higher. A lower high and lower low is obviously the next sign to look for.


Some divergence showing up too (2nd chart).


----------



## Sunder (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> This rally looks to be on it's last legs now but I'm expecting another test of the high of this rally or maybe even a probe slightly higher. A lower high and lower low is obviously the next sign to look for.




I agree with this assessment. Just closed out all my longs. There might be a few more bucks to squeeze out of this, but I am wary of a more sudden turnaround than I expect. 

Not sure if it'll be a strong pullback alla SSE style, or just a small retreat. For me, the price has left fundamentals now, and I'm just trading on signals alone.


----------



## moXJO (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Maybe it's time to go long with all the bearish threads out again


----------



## Sean K (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some basic S&R from my perspective.


----------



## RayG (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> Maybe it's time to go long with all the bearish threads out again




Just guessing here, but my interpretation of what's going on is,  a lot of those who are wanting the market to drop (seemingly bearish) are just looking to get in at a lower price.  

This is a bullish stance rather than bearish.  

There are a lot of super funds still sitting on cash, if the market keeps rallying they will be forced eventually to get on the bandwagon.  On the other hand, since they are looking to buy into any correction that will tend to put a floor under any pull back,  I don't think we'll see the asx under 4000 anytime soon, for that to happen you would need some kind of event that sends investors into a blind panic.  (cue the black swans)

We seem to be slowly decoupling from our dependency on the USA, after all our major customers are in Asia not the USA.

So, looking at Kennas SR chart,  I think 5000 is the next stop,  after a period where everyone sits on their hands waiting to see if there is a better buying opportunity.  Perhaps a shortlived pullback to 4100 before pushing up to 5000 or higher.

Either way, there seems to be less risk associated with being long, and a higher risk associated with being short, at least in the medium to long term.

So, my bet is 5000 by Christmas. Any takers...

Regards
Ray


----------



## sammy84 (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO is acting bearish but the S&P acting bullish. Who do you follow? I personally like to listen to one with the bigger cahunas


----------



## Real1ty (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> Maybe it's time to go long with all the bearish threads out again




It seems the bears were just suffering from premature elation...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> I personally like to listen to one with the bigger cahunas




That one is usually the bitch that lies to you all the time though


----------



## tasmart (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> Just guessing here, but my interpretation of what's going on is,  a lot of those who are wanting the market to drop (seemingly bearish) are just looking to get in at a lower price.
> 
> Either way, there seems to be less risk associated with being long, and a higher risk associated with being short, at least in the medium to long term.
> 
> ...




I'm a taker ........... but I think before Christmas!

The market is very touchy for an up! And most funds are still more cashed up than usual.

Hopefully there will be some volatility & also some consolidation - but my guess is that the consolidation will be above 5000 - more like 5200.

Interesting times

Mike


----------



## cutz (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tasmart said:


> And most funds are still more cashed up than usual.




G'Day Mike,

I'm not having a dig but because the above statement has occurred a few times does anyone have any real evidence of funds cashed up and ready to go or is it just anecdotal info from newspaper articles ?

Big funds generally don't outperform the index, if they were really cashed that means they would have bailed out before the crash but this doesn't seem to be the case, funds prices also crashed so that means most of them were fully invested, the better funds that have outperformed i would assume did their buying a few months ago.

The better funds i would also assume have the ability to go short when the time is right.


----------



## white_goodman (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

funds are not the smart money


----------



## Awesomandy (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The way I see it is, there is still a lot of cash around, and, as long as there are enough buyers, pullbacks would be limited. As soon as the market drops a bit, they'll all come in, thinking that they need to get in so they don't miss out on the potential gains anymore. Once all the sheep jump in, that's when the number of buyers reduce, and the severe leg down begins. So, in a nutshell, my opinion is that it is bullish in the short/very-short term. I am holding some longs to reflect this view, however, I'm also keeping an eye out for the turn down.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I just hope that when you all rush to the exit's you don't find that they are nailed shut!
Hey, the window over there might be an option?


----------



## skyQuake (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone think SPI is trading a bit too cheap atm?

Equivalent to around 4345 cash vs 4377 close. FTSE up lots, US futs up a bit, metals up.


----------



## nuking (20 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

me too, i got the same question and could not explained.


----------



## ivant (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

yea that was odd! why on earth didn't we move higher with them? I went long just before close, and was kind of expecting SPI to move with FTSE and then S&P. Ended up making 5 points tonight on the SPI which is peanuts. Since US open, S&P rallied from about 995 to 1005 in the same time we moved about 20 points. This is forgetting about 10-15 points that we didn't gain when FTSE gained from 5 to 10.30. Oddness all around me here. 

In terms of what was said before, I am still very bearish on the overall market. But with all the correction talk out there I am starting to get the feeling that S&P will break 1020 in a false breakout before the end of August. This market is propped up like crazy, and it is frustrating for any bear out there. I found October/November 2008 to me more predictable than the last few weeks out there in the mine fields. Let's see what September brings. My view has not changed about testing March lows either


----------



## skyQuake (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ivant said:


> yea that was odd! why on earth didn't we move higher with them? I went long just before close, and was kind of expecting SPI to move with FTSE and then S&P. Ended up making 5 points tonight on the SPI which is peanuts. Since US open, S&P rallied from about 995 to 1005 in the same time we moved about 20 points. This is forgetting about 10-15 points that we didn't gain when FTSE gained from 5 to 10.30. Oddness all around me here.
> 
> In terms of what was said before, I am still very bearish on the overall market. But with all the correction talk out there I am starting to get the feeling that S&P will break 1020 in a false breakout before the end of August. This market is propped up like crazy, and it is frustrating for any bear out there. I found October/November 2008 to me more predictable than the last few weeks out there in the mine fields. Let's see what September brings. My view has not changed about testing March lows either




US rallies, and cash equivalent is below ydays close! Divvies doesn't even acct for much...


----------



## Dark1975 (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lucky the dow is still a bit bullish,Because there's no confidence on the xao,When the dow has a few Consecutive down days next week that's when we will see how the xao holds up.
Alot of people still think this is a consolidatation(sideways movement).Well fellas time to check your charts again,With no volume and the lack of conviction from the u.s in volume..gg.
I'll go on the record to say quote " *This is a correction taking place now,not a consolidation period"*.Actually for the record being saying it all week.


----------



## Dark1975 (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Further more gogo my shorts on the financial stocks..making a killing


----------



## Sean K (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> I'll go on the record to say quote " *This is a correction taking place now,not a consolidation period"*.Actually for the record being saying it all week.



It's pretty easy to say a correction is due when the market has run up so far, so fast. 

My taxi driver taking me to school in Lima this morning was telling me he thought the Aussie market was overcooked. 

But I had another one tell me the same thing 3 weeks ago.


----------



## nomore4s (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> It's pretty easy to say a correction is due when the market has run up so far, so fast.




The question is how far do we correct? And is it then a start of a new down trend or is it just another buying opportunity in this current trend?


----------



## skc (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> The question is how far do we correct? And is it then a start of a new down trend or is it just another buying opportunity in this current trend?




Pretty one way traffic at the moment. We've broken through 4310 on the SPI which was a level held up for the past 3 days. Decending triangle target ~4150.


----------



## skyQuake (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Pretty one way traffic at the moment. We've broken through 4310 on the SPI which was a level held up for the past 3 days. Decending triangle target ~4150.




Triangle on the SPI? False brkkkk


----------



## skc (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Triangle on the SPI? False brkkkk




I hope so too for the sake of my super funds.

That's an hourly chart BTW. I would post a XAO chart if I had one.


----------



## Dark1975 (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> It's pretty easy to say a correction is due when the market has run up so far, so fast.
> 
> My taxi driver taking me to school in Lima this morning was telling me he thought the Aussie market was overcooked.
> 
> But I had another one tell me the same thing 3 weeks ago.




I actually stated this on threads before hand two weeks ago,And actually i see alot of threads of recent saying "no the bulls are in control at the moment",Actually im making a statement which many people don't make on this site,I mean there quick to dis-credit information but they dont state there thoughts on the future direction of the market.Think cause there not sure or there worried they might be wrong and there bruise there ego.
Me personally i could be wrong but my guess is the market will pull back 4100-4150 range in the next few weeks.
What's your thoughts mate on the future direction of the market?


----------



## Sean K (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On the XAO 4350 looks important, but how many times have we seemed to break some level of support and then it's bought up? We're really going to have to see some big moves on volume smashing through support for this to change into a decent down trend again. It will probably come, but I'm sick of seeing one days action as the start of the next leg down to 1500, or whatever.


----------



## Sean K (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> What's your thoughts mate on the future direction of the market?



Mate, I posted a chart a few posts ago with some blue and red lines on it.


----------



## moXJO (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Who cares what other people think so long as your making money off the move


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> I actually stated this on threads before hand two weeks ago,And actually i see alot of threads of recent saying "no the bulls are in control at the moment",Actually im making a statement which many people don't make on this site,I mean there quick to dis-credit information but they dont state there thoughts on the future direction of the market.Think cause there not sure or there worried they might be wrong and there bruise there ego.
> Me personally i could be wrong but my guess is the market will pull back 4100-4150 range in the next few weeks.
> What's your thoughts mate on the future direction of the market?




Wait...so, what are you saying? This is the beginning of the move down to break the march lows? Sounds to me like a "pull back" to 4100 implies the "bulls are in control" ? Which is what "alot of threads are saying". So you're no different to everyone else? Would you like a medal? :


----------



## skyQuake (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> I hope so too for the sake of my super funds.
> 
> That's an hourly chart BTW. I would post a XAO chart if I had one.




Ohh didn't see that. This triangle is over a few days so it may have some value. 
Its moving too slow though, we'll see how it fares over lunch.


----------



## nunthewiser (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> Who cares what other people think so long as your making money off the move




AMEN

im currently short the poms , making cash , i dont even follow the cricket


----------



## Dark1975 (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Mate, I posted a chart a few posts ago with some blue and red lines on it.




oh sorry mate didn't see that thread, looking at it now 
cheers


----------



## swm79 (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

i think its hard to remain bullish at the moment.... too much bad info contradicting the rises

think metals will have to pull back after the "de-stock, re-stock" we've just seen... even Klopers is saying the prices are overcooked and the outlook isnt great........ when BHP AND RIO are telling you the outlook isnt great i think you listen!

US job losses STILL increasing.... US late mortgage payments increased to a record - 1 in 8 yanks are either delinquent or in the foreclosure process... and has moved to "prime" mortgages because of job losses....... and the US banks go up    

So, i'm pretty bearish at the moment.


----------



## Dark1975 (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Wait...so, what are you saying? This is the beginning of the move down to break the march lows? Sounds to me like a "pull back" to 4100 implies the "bulls are in control" ? Which is what "alot of threads are saying". So you're no different to everyone else? Would you like a medal? :




Im saying the pull back will be in the next few weeks around 4100-4150,And actually it does say weeks,not months.
Cause generally I havn't got time to ramble all day cause i am trading 5 CFD shorts at the moment,I'll be back later to further comment.
But if your are asking me of the future circumstances on the xao on the next coming months,The resistance key is 4060(xao).


----------



## gfresh (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kennas: I'd agree with you in general, but even the charts look as though the current rally (from mid July) is dying.. two failed breaks and today the dominant red candle. But it could equally turn around strongly as you say with some buying to kill the shorts, and scoop up the shallow sell que. So :dunno:

Have been posturising the last couple of days, if we take the current top as 4465.. 4465 - 20% (893) = 3572 .. which would be still quite above the previous low. Back in the "old days" >20% was considered a "crash", so are we headed for another crash? or just a bit of a pulldown to somewhere in the low 4xxx range? 

There were a lot that missed out though so far this year, wonder if they will actually take action this time?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> Im saying the pull back will be in the next few weeks around 4100-4150,And actually it does say weeks,not months.
> Cause generally I havn't got time to ramble all day cause i am trading 5 CFD shorts at the moment,I'll be back later to further comment.
> But if your are asking me of the future circumstances on the xao on the next coming months,The resistance key is 4060(xao).




Was only asking you what you were actually trying to say, you were rambling about making statements that no one else makes, when it sounds to me like you're saying the exact same thing as everyone else is. 

But anyway, nevermind, I'm with moXJO on this one. Good luck with the shorts


----------



## Sean K (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



swm79 said:


> i think its hard to remain bullish at the moment.... too much bad info contradicting the rises
> 
> think metals will have to pull back after the "de-stock, re-stock" we've just seen... even Klopers is saying the prices are overcooked and the outlook isnt great........ when BHP AND RIO are telling you the outlook isnt great i think you listen!
> 
> ...



Yeah, but not too much of that has anything to do with the current charts and future direction imo.

We all know the US is bankrupt, California are giving their garbage men IOUs, Australian's unemployment rate is a crock, US unemployment rates are going to 11%, and China is misrepresenting growth, etc etc. 

We know this.

The March low factored in quite a lot of the pain, and we will see it.

Market may have overshot itself for now with so much cash on the side people were bound to jump in and many probably have so too late. 

For the past 5 months the trend has been to buy on dips, and until some important support levels are broken and punters start to really panic again, that will be the case.

I certainly agree the short term chart/candles look very ordinary....

Longer term, if the debt isn't closed off and inflation controlled, oh dear...


----------



## skc (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yeah, but not too much of that has anything to do with the current charts and future direction imo.
> 
> We all know the US is bankrupt, California are giving their garbage men IOUs, Australian's unemployment rate is a crock, US unemployment rates are going to 11%, and China is misrepresenting growth, etc etc.
> 
> ...




Iceland here we (be)come... at least we will have our, err, kangaroos.


----------



## moXJO (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Don't get all bearish guys it's just a flag, 8000 here we come


----------



## Chris45 (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Could this be a possible target for a Sep low?


----------



## swm79 (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yeah, but not too much of that has anything to do with the current charts and future direction imo.
> 
> ........
> 
> ...




but i think it does kennas. 

i think the market has been buying the idea of a slowing of bad data.... its jumping on anything it can... and cycling... but the bad data still exists, and its growing. thats my point. soon will come a time when there's no where left to jump. 

most of the market is controlled by the US consumer - what are they doing? sitting at home without jobs... and more and more of them are... i think we're just waiting for that info to hit the markets.... but it hasnt seemed to yet  

its the herd at the moment... it has to be... people buying on FY11 forecasts, not FY10

but yeah charts look very very ordinary - esp the large gap formed between us and the S&P


----------



## drsmith (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What's caused the market to go for a row of dunnies today ?


----------



## Dark1975 (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> *No offense mate but if you think that is panic and a lot of selling, you obviously haven't been in the market for very long*.




lol...nar no panic here ?I've shorted the market the last few days on financials?Going very well
But i hear there's alot of traders /wrists on the xao today


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



drsmith said:


> What's caused the market to go for a row of dunnies today ?




more supply than demand


----------



## drsmith (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Down 100 odd points is a lot of supply. More like a minor panic.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



drsmith said:


> What's caused the market to go for a row of dunnies today ?




People are finally starting to figure out that stocks were still expensive in March 09.


----------



## drsmith (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> People are finally starting to figure out that stocks were still expensive in March 09.



That would make it a major panic.


----------



## Real1ty (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> lol...nar no panic here ?I've shorted the market the last few days on financials?Going very well
> But i hear there's alot of traders /wrists on the xao today




So you are going to pull up quotes from a few days ago and apply them to today?


----------



## nunthewiser (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOL

loves the red days here ....... the bears all strut there stuff

loves the green days here ..........  the bulls strut there stuff

both saying "i told you so " 

not many saying what there doing about it though ......... oh except a few hindsight calls 

gotta love green and red days


----------



## nomore4s (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> People are finally starting to figure out that stocks were still expensive in March 09.




lol, that's funny compared to todays prices I would say they were cheap. But I suppose if you sold out back then and missed 3/4 of this rally.........


----------



## Gordon Gekko (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL
> 
> loves the red days here ....... the bears all strut there stuff
> 
> ...





I'm a bear on both green and red days! At least since the end of Aprilish

What I'm doing is sitting in CASH and not speculating!! Or I guess I am speculating by thinking I'm doing right thing being in cash?? oh ****??

Best
G


----------



## Dark1975 (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> People are finally starting to figure out that stocks were still expensive in March 09.




Agreed,By the way mate off the topic,But i love your avatarReminds me off what the bears are doing to do the bulls right now


----------



## Gordon Gekko (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> lol, that's funny compared to todays prices I would say they were cheap. But I suppose if you sold out back then and missed 3/4 of this rally.........




Sold out at 3800!! Still think I can get in much much cheaper in the next few months

G


----------



## nomore4s (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> Sold out at 3800!! Still think I can get in much much cheaper in the next few months
> 
> G




At this stage I doubt we will see new lows this year, we might test 3700 later this year though.


----------



## swm79 (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> LOL
> 
> loves the red days here ....... the bears all strut there stuff
> 
> ...




holding onto the ones i rate long term - AIO (thru SPP), FMG, AOE, CNX, STO, IFN


----------



## swm79 (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

an not entering on anything new unless i rate it on the long term fundamentals or see a cheap opportunity.............. unfortunately not at lot of them out here at all at the moment tho


----------



## Aussiejeff (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



drsmith said:


> What's caused the market to go for a row of dunnies today ?




Ummm.... a little more play by the Future Fund dumping on Telstra??? A mere $2.3BILLION worth??

At least, todays Commsec traded data seems to suggest it!


----------



## drsmith (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If thats it the directors of the FF are on a sure winner if they go short just before dumping the next lot.


----------



## Aussiejeff (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



drsmith said:


> If thats it the directors of the FF are on a sure winner if they go short just before dumping the next lot.




And around a cool $6,000,000 in one hit alone to Commsec for the trade fee?


----------



## Broadway (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



drsmith said:


> What's caused the market to go for a row of dunnies today ?




Last night copper and oil fell,us bonds rose.
Rio's crappy result, future fund selling.
xao support line of last few days broke.
Japanese bonds flew up at 10am, nikkei fell fast.

Thats how I saw it.


----------



## outback (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I've had a few trailing stops triggered today. I'm getting nervous, and happy to move back to a more cash dominant portfolio.


----------



## grace (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> Sold out at 3800!! Still think I can get in much much cheaper in the next few months
> 
> G



You must have been hitting the button about the same time as me.  I sold 25% about then.  Just waiting.....hope I don't die waiting.


----------



## RayG (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> Sold out at 3800!! Still think I can get in much much cheaper in the next few months
> 
> G




On reflection,  I would think that's a bullish stance, rather than bearish....maybe time for a new avatar?

Regards
Ray


----------



## Gordon Gekko (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> On reflection,  I would think that's a bullish stance, rather than bearish....maybe time for a new avatar?
> 
> Regards
> Ray





I'm a bull in a bear suit as long as the price is right

As soon as I go long my avitar will be the other way around, at least for a little whine.

G


----------



## Temjin (21 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I know this is a XAO thread, but I highly doubt anyone here would be THAT NAIVE to ignore the "correlation" between the US market and our local market. (or rather, the rest of the markets in the world)

I.e. The US market crash but the Aussie market continue to rise to stratosphere, think it could happen? 

Check this out.

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090821.htm?T






> *Chart of the Day*
> Today's chart illustrates how the recent plunge in earnings has impacted the current valuation of the stock market as measured by the price to earnings ratio (PE ratio). Generally speaking, when the PE ratio is high, stocks are considered to be expensive. When the PE ratio is low, stocks are considered to be inexpensive. From 1936 into the late 1980s, the PE ratio tended to peak in the low 20s (red line) and trough somewhere around seven (green line). The price investors were willing to pay for a dollar of earnings increased during the dot-com boom (late 1990s) and the dot-com bust (early 2000s). *As a result of the recent plunge in earnings and recent stock market rally, *t*he PE ratio spiked and just peaked at 144 – a record high. Currently, with 97% of US corporations having reported for Q2 2009, the PE ratio now stands at a lofty 129*.





Numbers do not lie here. To bring that PE ratio down to a more reasonable level would ultimately mean a massive increase in their earnings back to pre-bust level. i.e. the peak of the credit boom

Think it's going to happen again? 

Regardless, all this do not matters if you can trade the trend and be aware of the bigger picture. The only problem is only for those who cling on the "hope" that the market will go back to its previous peak level very soon and they still have the "buy and hold" mentality and buy the recent rally with margin. (which I see more and more people are doing so, hoping to recover their previous losses or not to miss the "train")


----------



## trading_rookie (22 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Ummm.... a little more play by the Future Fund dumping on Telstra??? A mere $2.3BILLION worth??




A T4-style sell-off to institutional investors at a 5% discount that was originally targeted at 497.7 million shares then increased to 683.7 million due to the sheer enthusiasm of the institutions surely isn’t a reason for what happened to the XAO yesterday. I’m upset they didn’t offer this discount to retail investors, since these shares qualify for the 14c final divie.

So have we de-coupled ourselves from the US – they take a 2% hit on weak Japanese GDP numbers while we apparently factored this in earlier and now the Dow up 2 days in a row (thus far anyway) and the XAO sliding into the red, down nearly 2% ready for a ‘told ya September is usually a bad time for stocks’ fall?

If only that DeLoren time-travel machine was real...stand to make a fortune ;-)


----------



## skyQuake (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trading_rookie said:


> A T4-style sell-off to institutional investors at a 5% discount that was originally targeted at 497.7 million shares then increased to 683.7 million due to the sheer enthusiasm of the institutions surely isn’t a reason for what happened to the XAO yesterday. I’m upset they didn’t offer this discount to retail investors, since these shares qualify for the 14c final divie.
> 
> So have we de-coupled ourselves from the US – they take a 2% hit on weak Japanese GDP numbers while we apparently factored this in earlier and now the Dow up 2 days in a row (thus far anyway) and the XAO sliding into the red, down nearly 2% ready for a ‘told ya September is usually a bad time for stocks’ fall?
> 
> If only that DeLoren time-travel machine was real...stand to make a fortune ;-)




Wasn't really a placement, they just wanted to get rid of shares but without incurring too much brokerage. (eg prospectus, mail outs etc) so they just placed it with instos or sophisticated investors. 

TLS only makes up 3.6% of the index which is relatively tiny. imo just traders and shorts getting set on Fri. Probably a few funds adjusting on the back of results.

Waiting for the Monday squeeze


----------



## Donga (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Screw the charts. They're great at analysing where we've been but looking through this thread I see little accuracy in future predictions especially from those preaching more doom. The bears love referring to charts though rarely commit to any numbers. Early last week I predicted, more for fun than anything else as don't consider myself a guru, we would sideways between 4200 to 4500 over the next few weeks. Well I might have been "bearish", as relish this yesterday from The Australian Business: 

One increasingly convinced we are now past the dawn of a new bull market is AMP Capital's chief economist, Shane Oliver.

In a note to clients this week, he wrote: "The evidence is continuing to accumulate that shares have embarked on a cyclical recovery. Further gains are likely.

"There are still plenty of funds on the sidelines and there is still a lot of healthy scepticism about the rally. Past cyclical upswings have seen Australian shares rise an average of 132 per cent over an average of four years.

"While we are of the view that the long-term picture for US, European and Japanese shares is constrained by high debt levels and the need to reverse policy stimulus, the longer-term picture is more positive in emerging markets and Australia. Also, as we saw in the 1970s in the US or over the last 20 years in Japan, a constrained or difficult long-term trend doesn't prevent sharp cyclical rebounds."

Which means what for the local market? Well, Oliver reckons it could mean the All Ords hits 5000 by year's end.

"There is a good chance the US S&P 500 index will gain approximately 25 per cent over the next 12 months," Oliver postulates. "In this context, a rise to 5000 for the Australian sharemarket by year-end is conceivable. Investors will need to focus on a new set of signposts as to when the rally will peak. These are likely to include measures of capability utilisation and inflation and the speed with which government stimulus is removed."

So pin your ears back and enjoy the run up to the summer break. I'll stick to my 4200 - 4500 for the next few weeks despite Oliver's exuberance. Best of luck to all traders who buy first then sell later


----------



## skyQuake (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Screw the charts. They're great at analysing where we've been but looking through this thread I see little accuracy in future






Chris45 said:


> Could this be a possible target for a Sep low?




Well Chris45 posted a pretty good chart, showing a test of resistance. Weak hands have bailed out. Shorts have gone in. Will we see a squeeze and new highs or Sept lows? Who cares, just trade it.

Similar thing a while ago testing another major level 3750s - Another chart chris45 was also kind enough to post. (do a search, i cbb)


----------



## Gordon Gekko (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*The "Money On The Sidelines" Fallacy*


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/money-sidelines-fallacy

"From the end of 2007 through Q1 of 2009, household equity has declined by 94%. Is it surprising that today's GDP number would have been a complete debacle if the consumer had been left alone to prop the U.S. economy, on whom 70% of the economy is reliant? Obama pulled a Hail Mary with the stimulus: without it there would be no debate America is in a depression right now. The only remaining question is how long can Congress and Senate extend such Subsidy programs as Cash for Clunkers before the rest of the world throws up in America's protectionist face."

A good read fi your keen.

Best 

G


----------



## grace (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> "In this context, a rise to 5000 for the Australian sharemarket by year-end is conceivable.




Shane Oliver also predicted at the beginning of 08 (we were probably 20% or so down from the high), that the market would recover to 7000 by the end of 08.

I take what he says with a grain of salt.  In fact, if he's bullish, I'm definitely bearish!


----------



## Donga (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



grace said:


> Shane Oliver also predicted at the beginning of 08 (we were probably 20% or so down from the high), that the market would recover to 7000 by the end of 08.
> 
> I take what he says with a grain of salt.  In fact, if he's bullish, I'm definitely bearish!




So Grace give us your best shot, as again these sentiments are soo loose. Likewise skyQuake re chris45 "good chart showing a test of resistance..."  C'mon guys let's see some real predictions instead of talking down the market.

Remember I'm not with Oliver with his 5000 as I predicted sideways for the next few weeks 4200-4500. However on the basis China can and will continue spend its way out of the recession and our mining (economy) will continue to recover, I believe the worst is over and we are in recovery mode towards something more sensible than the 4000s after being in the 6000s nearly two years ago.

And Grace, with the help from oversold BUY and recent MMR hopeful plus  some assistance from the positive guys in ASF (big thanks HappyTown), I've thrashed the ASX % growth with my play fund since you sold out at 3850.


----------



## micksof (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



grace said:


> Shane Oliver also predicted at the beginning of 08 (we were probably 20% or so down from the high), that the market would recover to 7000 by the end of 08.
> 
> I take what he says with a grain of salt.  In fact, if he's bullish, I'm definitely bearish!




He is an Economist, not a market technician. Economists have poor records of forecasting markets. Trying to predict market movement based on  funementals does not always work out.


----------



## grace (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Donga said:


> So Grace give us your best shot, as again these sentiments are soo loose. Likewise skyQuake re chris45 "good chart showing a test of resistance..."  C'mon guys let's see some real predictions instead of talking down the market.
> 
> Remember I'm not with Oliver with his 5000 as I predicted sideways for the next few weeks 4200-4500. However on the basis China can and will continue spend its way out of the recession and our mining (economy) will continue to recover, I believe the worst is over and we are in recovery mode towards something more sensible than the 4000s after being in the 6000s nearly two years ago.
> 
> And Grace, with the help from oversold BUY and recent MMR hopeful plus  some assistance from the positive guys in ASF (big thanks HappyTown), I've thrashed the ASX % growth with my play fund since you sold out at 3850.



Hey, don't get too defensive.  I sold 25% then, so now I'm 50% cash.  I'm a fundamental investor.  I haven't done that badly either by the way.

I guess I did sell 25% as a technical/fundamental trade.  I got that wrong.  Missed quite a bit.  I just don't think we are out of the woods yet.


----------



## Real1ty (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Donga said:


> Screw the charts. They're great at analysing where we've been but looking through this thread I see little accuracy in future predictions especially from those preaching more doom.




From memory, i think Frank pretty much predicted where we would get to a bit over a month ago.


----------



## nunthewiser (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Donga said:


> I've thrashed the ASX % growth with my play fund since you sold out at 3850.





and you are happy to post the statements here ? 

otherwise ya just another dreamtrader in my book

have a lovely day my dreaming friend


----------



## trainspotter (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My prediction is that it will rain. My prediction is that the market will go above 4000. If you look at my previous posts I also sold out all of my shares on the Thursday 13th August 2009. The market had a sideways slip down town shortly afterwards. Good opportunities for the purchase for furthermore when the "blood runs in the streets". Going hard at property at the moment. My prediction is that there will be a strong upsurge in trends towards the 5000 mark by 19th December 2009.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trainspotter said:


> My prediction is that the market will go above 4000.




You're right!!


----------



## Donga (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

GG - no offence taken and just wish you were right on my body parts, but you're about 40 years too late . Grace - sorry if came across defensive, just wishing to see some real predictions and not more talk downs. NTW - not dreaming and don't intend posting my investment details on this forum. 

Stock market wiz ain't me, just an average businessman with a few runs on the board though new to forums, and guess it shows. Feel good about where we are, and heading on the basis of China and overall recovery. In awe of those who see the falls coming and capitalise but suggest there are too many folk in here who are tilting at windmills when we're just getting over one of those rare major corrections. Thanks TS for your numbers, especially for someone who is big on property. Best wishes all


----------



## nomore4s (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Donga said:


> Screw the charts. They're great at analysing where we've been but looking through this thread I see little accuracy in future predictions especially from those preaching more doom.




rotflmao, you quite happily bag the chartists out but then quote a guy like Oliver who has a terrible record predicting the market.

There were plenty of chartist who have been spot on with this rally & market - FrankD, TH and others. Maybe read through the thread.


----------



## Donga (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks nomore4s I've seen your postings and have liked the way you use the charts to predict your numbers. It doesn't seem to be the norm though I'll take your advice and look for more of them. I've already had a lesson from the geos on PRW  I understand Oliver is going to talk up the market in his capacity at AMP however it is typical of the increasing sentiment in the media, the same media that panicked when the correction went too far IMO. Rightly or wrongly the market tends to follow these sources more than the chartists and as stated I admire those that pick the correction to sell, particulalry if they buy back before the recovery goes too far north again.


----------



## Sunder (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> Numbers do not lie here. To bring that PE ratio down to a more reasonable level would ultimately mean a massive increase in their earnings back to pre-bust level. i.e. the peak of the credit boom




On the contrary, the numbers do lie. Two things for you to ponder.

1. Remove any outliers that are more than 2 standard deviations from the mean, and see what that graph looks like. A single large bank with an "Infinite" P/E (i.e. making a loss) could skew those numbers every way to Sunday.

2. If I said totally hypothetically, that I had an investment that would return you nothing in the first year, (Infinite PE) but would give you $10 every year after that, with a AA rating. How much would you pay for it?

Think about what I'm getting at. The value of a stock is not a multiple of the next dividend or earning.


----------



## trading_rookie (23 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

@skyQuake, I agree – that’s why I was quizzing why a  ¼ sell-off of TLS shares by the FF is being speculated by some as one of the catalysts for the XAO falling nearly 2% on Fri. 

If anything their decision is based on crappy profit results from TLS and the uncertainty TLS will play in the NBN.



> Well, Oliver reckons it could mean the All Ords hits 5000 by year's end.




Oliver would have to be the ultimate bull – the world financial markets were crashing and Oliver as ever was overly enthusiastic about a quick recovery. I guess as a economist with a big ego and public profile he’d have to be otherwise he could end up like poor ex-ANZ chief economist Saul Estlake who got threatened by a former Federal treasurer for talking the economy down. 

From memory, GSJBW’s is predicting it’s best-case scenario of 6400 by Christmas 2010. I can’t see that happening so soon.


----------



## dhukka (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> *The "Money On The Sidelines" Fallacy*
> 
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/article/money-sidelines-fallacy
> ...




Ahh yes, the old cash on the sidelines meme. John Hussman describes this well. The whole article is well worth a read:



> *There's No Such Thing as Idle Cash on the Sidelines*
> 
> There was a farmer who harvested his field of corn. He sold all but 100 bushels. A few weeks later, he lent the 100 bushels of corn he had saved to a cereal maker, who gave the farmer an IOU that said “100 bushels of corn,” made a big box of corn flakes, and sold it. The next year, a famine struck. People looked hopefully at the farmer, seeing the note that said he had 100 bushels of corn. All that corn, just sitting on the sidelines! If only the farmer would put that corn on the sidelines to work, they thought, then everything would be fine...
> 
> ...


----------



## dhukka (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Donga said:


> Screw the charts. They're great at analysing where we've been but looking through this thread I see little accuracy in future predictions especially from those preaching more doom. The bears love referring to charts though rarely commit to any numbers. Early last week I predicted, more for fun than anything else as don't consider myself a guru, we would sideways between 4200 to 4500 over the next few weeks. Well I might have been "bearish", as relish this yesterday from The Australian Business:
> 
> One increasingly convinced we are now past the dawn of a new bull market is AMP Capital's chief economist, Shane Oliver.
> 
> ...




Be careful following Advice from Dr Oliver, the guy has been tragically wrong numerous times. Consider this call in July 2007:



> Market is just correcting itself
> 
> AMP Capital Investors chief economist and head of investment strategy Shane Oliver expects investors to have a rough ride for the next few months but says the long-term direct impact of the downturn will be minimal.
> 
> ...




Seriously, if you were trying to be wrong, you'd have been hard pressed to be this wrong.


----------



## Chris45 (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Re: chart posted in message #7219 on p361:
A few curious date things to ponder:
April high (start of upper trend line of almost parallel channel) was 17th
May high was 11th
June high was 12th
Average of 17 & 11 & 12 = 13.3
August high was 14th

March low was 10th
July low was 8th
Average of 10 & 8 = 9
09/09/09 (bin laden would like that date) is six months low to low from 10/03/09

Looking at the chart I posted in message #6885 on p345:
Wave 5 ran about 200% x wave 1 so we may have just completed a primary Wave 1 of our new bull market.
The 09/09/09 forecast low could be wave A of an ABC wave 2 correction.
A 50% retracement of primary wave 1 would take us back to 3815.
The January high was 3817.9 which presumably would be a support level for wave C.

However, I think it’s probably all too simple to be of any significance and I don’t really believe it’s going to amount to anything but it’s interesting to speculate.


----------



## trainspotter (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LMAO Chris45. That is the best chart analysis I have ever read in my entire life. I have copied this and will have it framed and put under glass to be hung in my "secret mens business room" or SMB for short. A black cat ran in front of me yesterday and a bird pooped on my car. Does this mean I am impervious to the market shorts or should I consult a soothsayer who will rip the innards out of a goat and advise me of the phone number of a numerologist? Go you good thing !!


----------



## white_goodman (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

god elliott wavers annoy me, the greatest repainting hindsight indicator in history


----------



## RayG (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> Re: chart posted in message #7219 on p361:
> March low was 10thLooking at the chart I posted in message #6885 on p345:
> Wave 5 ran about 200% x wave 1 so we may have just completed a primary Wave 1 of our new bull market.
> The 09/09/09 forecast low could be wave A of an ABC wave 2 correction.
> ...




ROTFLMAO   .... very perceptive ...

Regards
Ray


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> god elliott wavers annoy me, the greatest repainting hindsight indicator in history



The problem is that there seems to be a rule to cover every eventuality. Except the W3 which can't be the shortest. How you make investment decisions on that is confounding. You only know after 5 is over.... By itself, it's a turkey.


----------



## explod (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> god elliott wavers annoy me, the greatest repainting hindsight indicator in history




Maybe, but it is not just the Wave part, a reading of Prector et. al.,  indicates very thorough alignment of stock market fundamentals.

We are now in Wave V, built on hope and borrowed money, make the most of it but beware, the crash from wave Vs are not pretty and this one is the doozey of the greatest financial ponzi in history.

Am I annoying you?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> By itself, it's a turkey.




Does anyone actually trade using solely EW? I know of a few guys who use it aswell as something else, I wonder how the traders are going that use JUST EW.


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> I wonder how the traders are going that use JUST EW.



I don't think they do in isolation. OWG hasn't posted since his expanding triangle scenario went pear shaped. wavepicker hasn't posted since he was banned for having at least 5 different personalities. Funny that. Radge just posts the ones that conform to the rules about a week after. Tech uses it as a tool but is much more concerned with trade management. I haven't seen anyone prove it's an edge. Better off following MichaelD with his dart board approach probably.


----------



## nunthewiser (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I don't think they do in isolation. OWG hasn't posted since his expanding triangle scenario went pear shaped. wavepicker hasn't posted since he was banned for having at least 5 different personalities. Funny that. Radge just posts the ones that conform to the rules about a week after. Tech uses it as a tool but is much more concerned with trade management. I haven't seen anyone prove it's an edge. Better off following MichaelD with his dart board approach probably.





hahahahahahah

UH OH!

hope ya wearing headgear m8 , as you gunna pay dearly for that comment i suspect


----------



## Chris45 (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trainspotter said:


> LMAO Chris45. That is the best chart analysis I have ever read in my entire life. I have copied this and will have it framed and put under glass to be hung in my "secret mens business room" or SMB for short. A black cat ran in front of me yesterday and a bird pooped on my car. Does this mean I am impervious to the market shorts or should I consult a soothsayer who will rip the innards out of a goat and advise me of the phone number of a numerologist? Go you good thing !!






RayG said:


> ROTFLMAO   .... very perceptive ...
> Regards
> Ray




Numerology stuff was posted purely for its entertainment value. It has no significance whatsoever to real life events. Just a bit of fun. Cheers all.


----------



## brty (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Explod,



> Maybe, but it is not just the Wave part, a reading of Prector et. al., indicates very thorough alignment of stock market fundamentals.
> 
> We are now in Wave V, built on hope and borrowed money, make the most of it but beware, the crash from wave Vs are not pretty and this one is the doozey of the greatest financial ponzi in history



.

Prechter called the absolute top in '87, 91 and a few other times. He will be right eventually/ maybe, but it could be another 20 years. Following such nonesense predictions does not bode well for the hip pocket.

brty


----------



## wayneL (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Does anyone actually trade using solely EW? I know of a few guys who use it aswell as something else, I wonder how the traders are going that use JUST EW.




Correctives can be traded on their own merit IMO... unless they turn complex

WaveC ZZs and flats are a no brainer. Breakouts from 5 wave tri's are a pretty good probability trade too. Other patterns a bit harder, but it's no different to any pattern based trading... form a hypothesis, take the entries, bail if wrong.

Some fail with it because of a pathological need to be right.

<edit to add after seeing brty's post> I think the whole prediction thing with EW has knobs on it. Hypothesis yes, prediction no.


----------



## explod (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> Explod,
> 
> .
> 
> ...




Predictions are for the birds and even Precter has been caught short at the breadth of the current wave.   My interest is in the quality of fundamental analysis behind a/w theory, not to trade off, but to keep me abreast of the possiblities and aware early of market change.

It is easy to pick off errors, and one who seeks it usually ignores the successes.    Something to do with, we all want to be heroes perhaps.


----------



## micksof (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*
Perhaps you guys can show us some of the systems you use, since you think most of what everyone else is using is garbage. *This is a great opportunity for you all, which of you guys will step up first for scrutiny? After all you have put these poor other posters through the ringer.
*
*


----------



## Chris45 (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> god elliott wavers annoy me, the greatest repainting hindsight indicator in history




Of course you're absolutely correct!

No one who saw the 1974-1987 pattern could possibly have imagined the 1992-2007 pattern would have a strong fifth wave that they could make money from by being fully invested and which would be followed by a 50% correction of the entire index. You'd have to have rocks in your head to believe that. 

And of course the Fib Wave 3 extensions of 2.62 and 1.62 and the Wave 4 retracements of 0.62 and 0.5 are pure coincidence and of no significance whatsoever. Simply smoke and mirrors. 

This EW and numerology stuff is all just a bit of fun and games and you'd have to be crazy to take any of it seriously so just have a laugh and try not to get annoyed.


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



micksof said:


> *
> Perhaps you guys can show us some of the systems you use, since you think most of what everyone else is using is garbage. *This is a great opportunity for you all, which of you guys will step up first for scrutiny? After all you have put these poor other posters through the ringer.
> *
> *



I've posted just about every buy and sell for the past 3 years.


----------



## white_goodman (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> Of course you're absolutely correct!
> 
> No one who saw the 1974-1987 pattern could possibly have imagined the 1992-2007 pattern would have a strong fifth wave that they could make money from by being fully invested and which would be followed by a 50% correction of the entire index. You'd have to have rocks in your head to believe that.
> 
> ...





you just reaffirmed my point even moreso!

its the most powerful indicator/tech analysis ever... in HINDSIGHT! (ie cant make money off it)

now post me something forward looking on the right edge


----------



## micksof (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I've posted just about every buy and sell for the past 3 years.




Great, but what  has been basis of your system? Can you elaborate how this system has an edge over someone using Elliot Waves, Gann, or any other approaches that most traders use?

More to the point, have you been profitable in the last three years ?


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



micksof said:


> Great, but what  has been basis of your system? Can you elaborate how this system has an edge over someone using Elliot Waves, Gann, or any other approaches that most traders use?
> 
> More to the point, have you been profitable in the last three years ?



I do not have a 'system'. I find fundamentally undervalued stocks and then buy and sell them on support and resistance until they are fundametally or technically overbought and take profits accordingly. It's so discretionary that even I struggle to follow it. I haven't 'worked' for a few years, so I suspose it works. Best to ignore me as I don't charge.


----------



## tech/a (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> you just reaffirmed my point even moreso!
> 
> its the most powerful indicator/tech analysis ever... in HINDSIGHT! (ie cant make money off it)
> 
> now post me something forward looking on the right edge




I love dumb glass comments.
You clearly havent bothered to look back over this thread.
Rather than look for specific exact dates or price levels,Elliott provides *strong indication in anticipation.*

Clearly shown in a number of posts I have placed within this thread.

Learn how to trade with it.
It doesnt have to be that hard.

So how many are loading up long?
How many have cleared their long positions?
How many have gone short or anticipating going short?

How many have no idea what they are doing?


----------



## nunthewiser (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> How many have gone short or anticipating going short?
> 
> ?




me re antivipating 

in fact entered a small position on a certain market darling as of today , looking to add to said position as well as others 


i could be wrong but thats what the stoploss buttons for i spose


----------



## Chris45 (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> (ie cant make money off it) now post me something forward looking on the right edge




As I said, it's all just a bit of fun - bit like all of that 911 numerology stuff - curiosity value only. None of that stuff I posted before is meant to be taken seriously. Trainspotter and RayG got it (cheers guys). If anyone was able to analyze the market with any real significance, do you think they'd be posting it on an internet forum? No way!

The market will do whatever it takes to prove most of us wrong most of the time. The strong rebound today is already demonstrating just that.

Does everything have to be deadly serious all the time? I enjoy nun's comic talent  and if you can't have an occasional bit of fun, what's the point of living?


----------



## nunthewiser (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> I enjoy nun's comic talent




hey ................ i resemble that comment !


----------



## nunthewiser (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> How many have cleared their long positions?
> ?




why would i ? 

trailing stops seem to be all the rage these days .


----------



## white_goodman (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> bit like all of that 911 numerology stuff - curiosity value only.




dont know why but my mind jsut went off onto this tangent...

Spoof of the movie - Number 23


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I love dumb glass comments.
> You clearly havent bothered to look back over this thread.
> Rather than look for specific exact dates or price levels,Elliott provides *strong indication in anticipation.*



EW hasn't proven to predict prices in anticipation at all. 

Otherwise my mum, her dog, and her dog's taxi driver, would be trading EW patterns.


----------



## enigmatic (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think the key word there kennas is *anticipation*..

I can anticipate something is going to happen very strongly for a long time and probability denotes that it will happen at some point of time.
Not necessarily in the near future though.


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, I will not be surprised if someone drags up an hysterical chart that conforms to the 10 million rules of EW to prove it works in the coming minutes. We should just disregard the other 100m charts that didn't magically conform to it. 

I would really like to see OWG (and other EW'ers, including tech and Nick) keep posting in the EW and the XAO thread to keep explaining the movements of the index and how and why it doesn't conform to EW projections, or how it can be combined with money management to be an advantage. 

EW has been calling a leg down to new lows for months, and I know many people would have stayed out of the market because of that. Or, only gone half in waiting for the pullback. 

Is EW still calling that? Probably not. Now they have called a bottom and are right all along.


----------



## micksof (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> EW hasn't proven to be predict prices in anticipation at all.
> .




I take it you have applied and evaluated Elliot Waves Theory to be able to make such a statement. 

Elliot Wave is a very popular world wide. I understand this does not make better than anything else around, but for so many to be using it they must see something in it. I am not saying all users would have an edge, but they have a basis of a system. You in your last post have stated you have no system.


----------



## enigmatic (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I personally haven't Used EW myself for investing/trading so I guess I shouldn't be so quick to judge.

From what I have read EW can be an effective means of trading, however i think its use is more for confirmation of a Buy or Sell.
Which alot of TA is all about.. less about predicting more about verifying.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



micksof said:


> I take it you have applied and evaluated Elliot Waves Theory to be able to make such a statement.
> 
> Elliot Wave is a very popular world wide. I understand this does not make better than anything else around, but for so many to be using it they must see something in it. I am not saying all users would have an edge, but they have a basis of a system. You in your last post have stated you have no system.




Can you please give your definition of a system? Are you trying to say EW is a "system" and isn't discretionary?


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



micksof said:


> I take it you have applied and evaluated Elliot Waves Theory to be able to make such a statement.
> 
> Elliot Wave is a very popular world wide. I understand this does not make better than anything else around, but for so many to be using it they must see something in it. I am not saying all users would have an edge, but they have a basis of a system. You in your last post have stated you have no system.



No Mick, I have been following it for the past couple of years, but not religiously applying it, so perhaps I am wrong. I have not seen a quantatative/qualitative measure of EW's success, but I have only read a couple of their novels. An EW'er could quite easily splash up a 'how to' guide here and be a gazillionaire, but alas, no. In retrospect, perhaps...


----------



## micksof (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Apologies Sam,

I am using the word "system" quite loosely. Call it, approach, analysis, method, or even forecast it's still discretionary.

Kennas

I don't understand you. "Ew" was calling for more downside from March onward e.t.c. EW was no doing anything, it's only a small portion of Ew posters here that were, and because of this you are dismissing Elliott Wave as not a viable analysis.

The best exponent if Elliott is Robert Prechter. He shorted the SP500 a few weeks before it topped and then rode it down 850 points when stated that 5 waves are closed out two weeks before the market bottomed.

The statement that Elliott Waves was predicting further downside is fallacy. 
It seems to it's not the method that is at fault here, but rather, how it should be applied. Don't you think ?


----------



## swm79 (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



micksof said:


> Apologies Sam,
> 
> I am using the word "system" quite loosely. Call it, approach, analysis, method, or even forecast it's still discretionary.
> 
> ...




seems like a very flawed system if not everyone has the same interpretation of it - why is there only one person of note who applied it as such? 

and yet the EW's on this thread have been calling it differently??? how is it so?

i may as well flip a coin

lets shoot an arrow and then whatever it hits we'll call the target.


----------



## micksof (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



swm79 said:


> seems like a very flawed system if not everyone has the same interpretation of it - why is there only one person of note who applied it as such?
> 
> and yet the EW's on this thread have been calling it differently??? how is it so?
> 
> ...




Hey, all systems/methods have flaws, if it was a perfect world, we would all be mega rich. To be quite honest, I think most approaches including fundementals ones are open to intepretation.

"Only One Person of Note applied it as such?"  Do do you think the only people who use Elliott Waves only post on this little forum?

Let me tell ya something, at the March low the consensus of bulls would have been about 5%, no matter what method they were using, Elliott Waves, Trend folllowers, Fundemenatlists.. whatever!!

Flip a Coin.....

At the end of a day a trade is nothing more than any other form of gambling: *A 50/50 Bet*


----------



## Nyden (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



micksof said:


> At the end of a day a trade is nothing more than any other form of gambling: *A 50/50 Bet*




A 50-50 bet? Go find another hobby mate, you're obviously *not very good if those are the sorts of odds you're playing with, and more importantly; willing to accept!


----------



## professor_frink (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



micksof said:


> The best exponent if Elliott is Robert Prechter. He shorted the SP500 a few weeks before it topped and then rode it down 850 points when stated that 5 waves are closed out two weeks before the market bottomed.
> 
> The statement that Elliott Waves was predicting further downside is fallacy. It seems to it's not the method that is at fault here, but rather, how it should be applied. Don't you think ?





The best exponent is someone that has been calling for the DOW to fall to 400 since the 1980's


----------



## wayneL (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> The best exponent is someone that has been calling for the DOW to fall to 400 since the 1980's




Maybe we'd be there if not for Benny's heleicopter.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Maybe we'd be there if not for Benny's heleicopter.




And there is talk of the stimulas being unwound!

A good article on what may follow..

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sprott-beyond-stimulus

G


----------



## Buckeroo (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> And there is talk of the stimulas being unwound!
> 
> A good article on what may follow..
> http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sprott-beyond-stimulus
> ...




Thanks for the link Gek. Backs up much of what a lot of us have been saying. 

What really stood out is the following quote - 12 months ago this would have seemed like madness.



> Never before have so many government dollars been thrown at the economy to prevent a depression. When added together, the combined financial, monetary and fiscal stimuli in the US are more than the cost of the two World Wars and “The New Deal” combined.




Cheers


----------



## explod (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> And there is talk of the stimulas being unwound!
> 
> A good article on what may follow..
> 
> ...




Thanks for posting that up G/G.    Problem is that only those that already know and understand will read or believe it.

As was said earlier in the day, the current wave V is so large on so much hot air that it is not being recognised for the havoc being metered.


----------



## white_goodman (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

trick is not getting killed shorting in the next few weeks of potential up thrusts imo


----------



## tech/a (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> trick is not getting killed shorting in the next few weeks of potential up thrusts imo




Interesting opinion.
Mine is still where it has been for a while.
Bearish as we are still in a medium term up move short term down move.

Not buying longs was selling them all day. (No not shorting).


----------



## trainspotter (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The trick is not to be the pie. December 19th rally IMO.


----------



## white_goodman (24 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Interesting opinion.
> Mine is still where it has been for a while.
> Bearish as we are still in a medium term up move short term down move.
> 
> Not buying longs was selling them all day. (No not shorting).




seems a few of us are in this camp


----------



## Dark1975 (25 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> And there is talk of the stimulas being unwound!
> 
> A good article on what may follow..
> 
> ...




A bit late in reading this article,But yeah armageddon coming to a place near you! lol.Well double dip recession looks likely after the stimulus wears off.Great article btw

cheers


----------



## grace (25 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gordon Gekko said:


> And there is talk of the stimulas being unwound!
> 
> A good article on what may follow..
> 
> ...




Yes, good article there.  Are they an independant mob or something?  Or are Canadian's just plain honest?


----------



## Donga (26 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Expect all the doomsdayers will go quiet again and wait for the next few days of sell offs before they pop out again. Let's say the contrarians are correct, that there are still some fundamental wrinkles in the system to iron out (and there will always be some). As an old red ragger I recognise there are still some significant ones out there. 

Fact is China won't change their system in a hurry, they want domestic growth and have the will and $s to drive that. The US have had enough GFC  for a few years and haven't the stomach to face another. A serious downturn in the stockmarkets would slow down the real economy recovery as well. 

Some ramblings to underline my conviction the ASX will continue to recover towards 5000 with a few minor corrections along the way. 

Begs the question of will the current reforms slowly going through happen in time to avert another GFC not long after we've recovered from this one? I would be all for reducing the influence and paypackets of the finance industry for starters. ASX being reined in will not hurt, as long as ASIC is up to it.


----------



## nunthewiser (26 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Donga said:


> Expect all the doomsdayers will go quiet again and wait for the next few days of sell offs before they pop out again.  .




i used to today to add to my short position on a leading market darling ..... hey i could be wrong but i have a stoploss button for that


----------



## Donga (26 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey Nun - why the continued secrecy on your leading market darling. Weren't you taught to share in the monastery?


----------



## explod (26 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Donga said:


> Expect all the doomsdayers will go quiet again and wait for the next few days of sell offs before they pop out again. Let's say the contrarians are correct, that there are still some fundamental wrinkles in the system to iron out (and there will always be some). As an old red ragger I recognise there are still some significant ones out there.
> 
> Fact is China won't change their system in a hurry, they want domestic growth and have the will and $s to drive that. The US have had enough GFC  for a few years and haven't the stomach to face another. A serious downturn in the stockmarkets would slow down the real economy recovery as well.
> 
> ...




Struth, you need to do a bit of research, China is in all sorts of sh.t   The current reforms are failing everywhere, open the eyes and study some proper analysis.

The asx is struggling in the charts, pops up only on the us dow hot air and like it, is very close to the next tumble.

Macquarie, cant believe the price of crap here, the ponzi continues.


----------



## RayG (26 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Donga said:


> Fact is China won't change their system in a hurry, they want domestic growth and have the will and $s to drive that. The US have had enough GFC  for a few years and haven't the stomach to face another. A serious downturn in the stockmarkets would slow down the real economy recovery as well.
> 
> Some ramblings to underline my conviction the ASX will continue to recover towards 5000 with a few minor corrections along the way.




I agree pretty much with the way you are thinking,  no doubt we will see a correction sometime soon, but my feeling is that it will be a shallow dip on the XAO when compared with the US markets.  If that proves to be the case, then we can argue that the XAO is more likely to be coupled to China in the future rather than the US.  

China is a bit of a wildcard in this scenario, I don't think anyone yet understands how their economy really functions, except to say that they have enough resources (people and money) to do whatever they want.

So, still thinking 5000 by Christmas with a shallow (5-10%) pull back to maybe 4100 or so between now and then.  

Might be time to take a profit, and wait for the dip?

Regards
Ray


----------



## Donga (26 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi explod - Research on China? All I need to know is they have low labour costs, good education, funds galore and strong central planning. Politically they need to keep growing and have the bucks to fuel it, so it is and will continue to happen, baring major civil disobediance. I receive despatches from my brother who lives in China and talk with my colleaugues in our company there, that'll do me.  

Ray - I'm with you except I don't sell to get back in as a rule, admire those who do. I might trim as did today with MMR or move into other sectors at some time as heavily into mining at present, but don't think that sector is going to suffer unduly during the inevitable minor corrections on the way back to 5000. China bubble burst and all bets are off! Just my thoughts and no guru, so DYOR.


----------



## nunthewiser (26 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Donga said:


> Hey Nun - why the continued secrecy on your leading market darling. Weren't you taught to share in the monastery?





no secrecy whatsoever . in fact 90% of regulars here would already know who im referring to as its my favorite trade stock short and LONG 

bhp for those that are concerned over what im actually trading ...


----------



## Real1ty (26 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Struth, you need to do a bit of research, China is in all sorts of sh.t   The current reforms are failing everywhere, open the eyes and study some proper analysis.




Ex

What is proper analysis?

Is it an article on a blog written by someone whos opinion is the same as yours or is it figures released by Economists, Government bodies or supposedly independent bodies?

Many of the conspiracy theorists on here debunk most of the reports by a lot of the bodies or recognised Economists yet choose to link to Blogs to articles written by, in many cases (but not all), someone who has no standing in the Business or Economic community.

However many on here will remark at what a brilliant article it was.

Imo it was a brilliant article to them because it backs up their thoughts on the direction of the market, not because its statistics are any more correct or verifiable than those released by other sources.

So what is proper analysis?


----------



## wayneL (26 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> Ex
> 
> What is proper analysis?
> 
> ...



Confirmation bias. We are all guilty of it.

But as a point of order, "standing" in the business or economic community usually means a strong vested interest. I pretty much ignore those with such standing, except as an adjunct to trying to read the market mood.

"Proper" analysis would entail putting hope to one side and just consider the facts... hopefully, confirmation bias doesn't fudge the analysis.


----------



## white_goodman (26 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> Ex
> 
> What is proper analysis?
> 
> ...




this is very true the other problem is, how reliable and accurate is economic data anyway? unemployment rates are skewed, inflation data etc etc. Also the other problem is some people in the economic community with credibility have worse forecasts/opinions then some bloggers. 

I try and look at the perma bullish commentators vs the perma bears and the truth usually is somehwere inbetween, however my bias atm is bearish admittedly


----------



## explod (26 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> Ex
> 
> What is proper analysis?
> 
> ...




Proper analysis is when you stop listening or taking any notice of anyone else and go to some good books and learn to measure the real value of the markets for youself.  To measure proper p/e against liabilites hidden, (which has unfortunately become the norm) is not an easy task.

Unfortunately good and independant economists who do measure and state exactly how it is are not cheap but are very worthwhile in subscriping to.   I do not plug for anyone but you will find the right direction, if you want to.   Most people only look for who will tell them what is nice and what backs up what they want.   The markets are not like that. 

The economists in the news plug for the general financial system itself, an incestuous self serving plug to keep the fees and charges flowing from us mugs.


----------



## white_goodman (26 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

also dont marry a bias, see whats presented for analysis and come up with a bias, but dont follow it till the grave if its proven wrong.

The problem with the Schiffs of this world now, although they speak some sense, they are now married to there opinion and have to be proven right or else their careers will soon go down the drain


----------



## surfziggy (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Proper analysis is when you stop listening or taking any notice of anyone else and go to some good books and learn to measure the real value of the markets for youself.  To measure proper p/e against liabilites hidden, (which has unfortunately become the norm) is not an easy task.




The trouble with this is a market doesn't represent the true value of anything. It represents what people are willing to pay for it. Better of trying to read which way the herd is trying to run and going along for the ride. Which is why Donga hit the nail on the head methinks.

But you perma bear nutters can think whatever you choose too ;-)


----------



## white_goodman (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hitler Misses Out on the 2009 Bull Market - Video


----------



## Timmy (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> Ex
> 
> What is proper analysis?
> 
> ...




Amen to this.  
Confirmation bias is rife, as is marrying a view (subsequent posters have  mentioned these).  
Reading a lot of the articles/blogs/comments from the bears over the past months the thing that has most stood out to me has been the way most of them are absolutely incensed that the market direction has proven them wrong.  
The rage coming through the writing is almost palpable.
Happily, one day the market will fall, even if only a bit, and they can all say "I told you so", recover some face and equanimity and carry on.


----------



## Buckeroo (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Timmy said:


> Amen to this.
> Confirmation bias is rife, as is marrying a view (subsequent posters have  mentioned these).
> Reading a lot of the articles/blogs/comments from the bears over the past months the thing that has most stood out to me has been the way most of them are absolutely incensed that the market direction has proven them wrong.
> The rage coming through the writing is almost palpable.
> *Happily, one day the market will fall, even if only a bit, and they can all say "I told you so", recover some face and equanimity and carry on.*




Its funny how the bulls only listen to upstanding economic experts & the bears only listen to bloggers? What a rant.

I'm afraid if you can't digest the facts properly & only listen to people trying to increase your confidence in the face of an impending disaster, then prepare for the soup kitchen - no doubt eventually, I will be donating money to feed you.

Cheers


----------



## Timmy (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buckeroo said:


> Its funny how the bulls only listen to upstanding economic experts & the bears only listen to bloggers? What a rant.




And the sensible people listen to the market.


----------



## nunthewiser (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Timmy said:


> And the sensible people listen to the market.





amen 

while the rest whine about it


----------



## Buckeroo (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Timmy said:


> And the sensible people listen to the market.




And we all know the market is based around the cycle of emotion - I prefer to stick with the facts thanks.

Cheers


----------



## nunthewiser (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buckeroo said:


> And we all know the market is based around the cycle of emotion - I prefer to stick with the facts thanks.
> 
> Cheers





and hows that working out for you ? 

yep sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to happen whilst a 50% bounce occurs on some stocks sure sounds like a great way to make some cash


----------



## RayG (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> Hitler Misses Out on the 2009 Bull Market - Video




Loved it.... absolutely brilliant  

thanks for posting that.

Regards
Ray


----------



## Buckeroo (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> and hows that working out for you ?
> 
> yep sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to happen whilst a 50% bounce occurs on some stocks sure sounds like a great way to make some cash




Who says I'm not in stocks? I don't see how that has anything to do with your views on where the market is headed in the future.

Cheers


----------



## Naked shorts (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> and hows that working out for you ?
> 
> yep sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to happen whilst a 50% bounce occurs on some stocks sure sounds like a great way to make some cash




+1 

p.s. mods we should get a "recommend post" feature added.


----------



## skc (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buckeroo said:


> And we all know the market is based around the cycle of emotion - I prefer to stick with the facts thanks.
> 
> Cheers




The fact is that the market is based around the cycle of emotion...

So trade the emotion = trade the fact... same same.


----------



## white_goodman (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> The fact is that the market is based around the cycle of emotion...
> 
> So trade the emotion = trade the fact... same same.




same same but different


----------



## Broadway (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> Hitler Misses Out on the 2009 Bull Market - Video




'and Australia didn't even have a recession..' 

I thought asx stocks were bought again on today's dips.

Up more for the next day or two.

Maybe 'better than expected' news tonight.


----------



## white_goodman (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> 'and Australia didn't even have a recession..'




"Its ok Anna, natural gas is just in a bottoming phase"


----------



## MR. (27 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ahhh when will that market darling ever get back to that 18 or 24?

Hard not to have made some money in recent months, ha ha ha. Will admit did attack with way too little conviction.  So guess  I’m a still standin in Hitler’s office........  Think I liked the older version of that clip more so!  Avoided the drop.  Didn’t recognize the rebound.  Bugger, and Nun thought I’d know when the time was right to jump back in!   Ummm .......

Wonder if this rebound is the one I wrote of back in Feb? ..... Can't be..... We ain't even in a recession are we?


----------



## nunthewiser (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> Ahhh when will that market darling ever get back to that 18 or 24?
> 
> Hard not to have made some money in recent months, ha ha ha. Will admit did attack with way too little conviction.  So guess  I’m a still standin in Hitler’s office........  Think I liked the older version of that clip more so!  Avoided the drop.  Didn’t recognize the rebound.  Bugger, and Nun thought I’d know when the time was right to jump back in!   Ummm .......
> 
> Wonder if this rebound is the one I wrote of back in Feb? ..... Can't be..... We ain't even in a recession are we?





crashnburn market darlings to 18 

when we chatted you stated you was an investor NOT a trader .. big difference .

fwiw i still think we will see new lows before we see this bear over and done with 

dont mean im gunna sit around and wait in the meantime tho 

and yeah what recession ? ..... still sitting on a tip of an iceburg i personally think .... but hey i dont have a degree , nor have letters after my name , nor do i appear on "sunrise " in the morning  so what would i know hey ............


----------



## IFocus (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Timmy said:


> Amen to this.
> Confirmation bias is rife, as is marrying a view (subsequent posters have  mentioned these).
> Reading a lot of the articles/blogs/comments from the bears over the past months the thing that has most stood out to me has been the way most of them are absolutely incensed that the market direction has proven them wrong.
> The rage coming through the writing is almost palpable.
> Happily, one day the market will fall, even if only a bit, and they can all say "I told you so", recover some face and equanimity and carry on.




Adding to Timmy's comments a lot of arguments sort of go like the following....

"Traders do the same thing. They have an opinion and then they search for clues/evidence/support to back/justify their views. If they think the market is going up, they’ll key on the 4 indicators that tell them the market is going to rally and conveniently ignore the 3 that offer warnings. You’ve heard me say 1000 times, trade what happens, not what you want to happen or think should happen."

http://leavittbrothers.com/blog/?p=1732


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I do like the chart of the xao attached on the home page of asf.

This morning it looks like my old uncle Cecil heading for breakfast in his nursing home in Bendigo.

Slow slow keep on going , its breakfast.

Lets hope he doesn't fall over, and gets to sit down for his muesli, poor bugger.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What a diff an hour makes. Looks like Cecil has given up, dropped the plate, not a chunder though. Being led back to room !!

gg


----------



## jersey10 (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> crashnburn market darlings to 18
> 
> fwiw i still think we will see new lows before we see this bear over and done with




Really? That would be some sort of dramatic crash if it were to eventuate.  What is your timeframe for this?


----------



## cutz (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> nor do i appear on "sunrise " in the morning  so what would i know hey ............




Actually sunrise is a fairly good contrarian indicator, what's the latest from Koshy ??, good times to come, the start of a massive bull market ??

Anticipating a massive correction, got nothing to back me up though.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cutz said:


> Actually sunrise is a fairly good contrarian indicator, what's the latest from Koshy ??, good times to come, the start of a massive bull market ??
> 
> Anticipating a massive correction, got nothing to back me up though.




Cecil is asking for an ice cream bucket. Run !

gg


----------



## Sean K (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We've all been calling for a correction since late March.


----------



## moXJO (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> We've all been calling for a correction since late March.




Sooner or later we will be right


----------



## nunthewiser (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



moXJO said:


> Sooner or later we will be right




hence i have added no timeframe


----------



## jersey10 (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> hence i have added no timeframe




LOL. Fair enough.


----------



## Real1ty (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> *We've all* been calling for a correction since late March.




*WE* have?

Plenty have been unsure/undecided, myself included, but some have been calling it higher for awhile and FrankD seemed to get it pretty close going from memory.


----------



## MR. (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Like Hitler and others we know, we just need someone to blame. What was it that was said between Hitler and his adviser?

Adviser -	Mein Fuhrer, you a clearly over reacting, 
                  this is clearly a bear market rally.

Hitler -	DON’T BULL**** ME. You (we) missed the bottom.

Adviser -	Mein Fuhrer, I’m confident the market will drop under the March lows

Hitler -	Don’t give me this CNN bear market bullocks!
	WE MISSED IT

And not forgetting 
Hitler - Have any of you ever heard of Warren Buffet? 

LOL.........  The sketch was written for me! 

Next stop 2800!


----------



## Sean K (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> *WE* have?
> 
> Plenty have been unsure/undecided, myself included, but some have been calling it higher for awhile and FrankD seemed to get it pretty close going from memory.



Yes, we have.

Unless of course we've changed our minds on the way.


----------



## trainspotter (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cutz said:


> Actually sunrise is a fairly good contrarian indicator, what's the latest from Koshy ??, good times to come, the start of a massive bull market ??
> 
> Anticipating a massive correction, got nothing to back me up though.




Better get me a *BUUUCCKKEETTTTTT* if Koshy has got anything to do with it.


----------



## Real1ty (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yes, *we* have.
> 
> Unless of course *we've* changed our minds on the way.




Who is this *we* you speak of?

Is it everyone, as if so that is wrong.

Or is it a majority or a minority you are referring to?


----------



## Sean K (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> Who is this *we* you speak of?
> 
> Is it everyone, as if so that is wrong.
> 
> Or is it a majority or a minority you are referring to?



*We* is anyone who believes in EW. 



I was taking the piss.


I was calling for a decent rally from late April/early March, so I'm not wrong yet.

The 80-100% rally might be wrong.


----------



## Real1ty (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> *We* is anyone who believes in EW.
> 
> 
> 
> I was taking the piss.




lol, sorry about that i didn't pick up on that.

Point taken and i'm not a part of the *we*


----------



## Buckeroo (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> fwiw i still think we will see new lows before we see this bear over and done with




And here's me thinking nun, you were a bull under that nuns habit.

Anyway, one point to make is a bear like myself can still ride the waves of the market, but I do have certain conditions of the investment:

Use my own money
Little if any leverage
Keep away from penny little stocks - these stocks can run out of buyers
Favor stocks that derive a good part of their income from within Australia

Its a strategy which makes money and is safe. And as I've said before, I will release the bear once October has past & if things are still looking rosy. If things do turn bad a second time, I don't think it will just be a simple stock market crash.

And good on all the bulls who picked March as the turning point (oh for a crystal ball). Did you also pick the down turn last year? 

Cheers


----------



## trainspotter (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Let's get ready to* RUUUUUUMBLE *!! Bang a gong, bring it on !


----------



## Buckeroo (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trainspotter said:


> Let's get ready to* RUUUUUUMBLE *!! Bang a gong, bring it on !




Nice one TS, I'm just concerned the chair won't be enough

Cheers


----------



## gfresh (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Buckeroo said:


> And good on all the bulls who picked March as the turning point (oh for a crystal ball). Did you also pick the down turn last year?
> Cheers




No, and no.. and you don't have to, to make money, and not lose all your money.


----------



## Real1ty (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> What a diff an hour makes. Looks like Cecil has given up, dropped the plate, not a chunder though. Being led back to room !!
> 
> gg






Garpal Gumnut said:


> Cecil is asking for an ice cream bucket. Run !
> 
> gg




gg, you have done it again.

Closed well off the lows and not far off the high for the day. God i hope you don't money towards your calls.


----------



## Naked shorts (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



trainspotter said:


> Let's get ready to* RUUUUUUMBLE *!! Bang a gong, bring it on !




Yes, lets.


----------



## trainspotter (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

LOLOL. Drink anyone?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> gg, you have done it again.
> 
> Closed well off the lows and not far off the high for the day. God i hope you don't money towards your calls.




I do it on purpose mate.

The Macquarie muppets drive the market from 9.30 after "Daddy" has punished them.

About 1130 they check ASF and say **** gg is shorting, but Daddy said!, oh bugger I'll go short

They then get in to things to cheer them up over lunch , and think of Daddy, and punishment and go long for the afternoon, as does gg.

Thus is the xao.

gg


----------



## Chris45 (28 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> *We* is anyone who believes in EW.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I just checked a couple of definitions.

Forum: A medium for open discussion or voicing of ideas, such as a newspaper, a radio or television program, or a website.

Moderator: A person granted special powers to enforce the rules of an Internet forum and keep the board a friendly place, free of personal insults and avoiding conflict of interest and bias.

Now, I would have thought a good moderator would be one who keeps his personal biases to himself and allows a free exchange of ideas and views without constantly belittling those whose views differ from his.

Your sarcasm makes it obvious that you believe that anyone who believes in EW is not welcome to post on your thread.


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> Your sarcasm makes it obvious that you believe that anyone who believes in EW is not welcome to post on your thread.



It's not 'my' thread, and EW is welcome to post here or in the EW and the XAO thread. Haven't seen a decent chart from the EW crowd for some time unfortunately. I really enjoy it.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> It's not 'my' thread, and EW is welcome to post here or in the EW and the XAO thread. Haven't seen a decent chart from the EW crowd for some time unfortunately. I really enjoy it.




XAO thread has always been antipathetic to EW posts, so we just leave it alone.

gg


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Shhhh. About time for some more charts.


----------



## nunthewiser (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Shhhh. About time for some more charts.





would be good to see some to see what wave we riding now .....surfs up ?


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> would be good to see some to see what wave we riding now .....surfs up ?




Just for Kenna's and Muppet.
These are AGET generated wave counts and will not be to the liking of Elliott Purists.
Their counts will differ.
For me I just want an indication of direction and magnitude.
So my OWN indications from the charts.
So A correction coming at sometime to give a wave 4.
This wont be a very deep corrective move.
Followed by a wave 5 which also isnt going to be that powerful.
A bit ho hum.


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Just for Kenna's and Muppet.
> These are AGET generated wave counts and will not be to the liking of Elliott Purists.
> Their counts will differ.
> For me I just want an indication of direction and magnitude.
> ...



Thanks Tech. I know anything is possible, but according to EW, could the March low still be a larger degree W3, and we're still in a W4? If so, what would have to occur for that theory to be completely invalidated? It looks like we've well and truly passed the W4 down labelled by AGET.


----------



## micksof (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here we go again.......


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Thanks Tech. I know anything is possible, but according to EW, could the March low still be a larger degree W3, and we're still in a W4? If so, what would have to occur for that theory to be completely invalidated? It looks like we've well and truly passed the W4 down labelled by AGET.




Sure but not until wave 5 of the lower degree is complete.
AGET only analyses 300 bars so we need to go to WEEKLY to show what your querying.
And sure enough its still a wave 4
You normally get equality in waves as well so it seems the wave 4 is nearly there but not quite---which fits with the wave 5 on the daily to be completed.


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



micksof said:


> Here we go again.......




Meaning 
I no understand amigo.
OR
I want to be in the crowd of Muppets,with nothing to add but plenty to pontificate.


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Sure but not until wave 5 of the lower degree is complete.
> AGET only analyses 300 bars so we need to go to WEEKLY to show what your querying.
> And sure enough its still a wave 4



Crikey, so it's going to have to go through about 5200 before its invalidated on the weekly.

I wonder if that will fit in with some fundamental views that the liquidity pumped into the market is just a short to medium term jab in the arm, and that a second dip into recession will occur, which may be a little more painful before more funds are injected to keep us afloat before complete system failure....

eeeek


----------



## micksof (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Meaning
> I want to be in the crowd of Muppets,with nothing to add but plenty to pontificate.




Actually I quite enjoy reading your posts, even though I disagree with what is being presented.

I mean here we go again: Kennas Vs Elliott Wave!


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



micksof said:


> Actually I quite enjoy reading your posts, even though I disagree with what is being presented.
> 
> I mean here we go again: Kennas Vs Elliott Wave!



Yep, here we go again. Ask a legitamite question of EW and you get attacked. Same old, same old. 

'Here we go again', and you joined in Aug?

lol


----------



## micksof (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeah..August, Certaily no veteran in the forum business lol


----------



## Snakey (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

looks to be still on track with original prediction 
interesting the similarity between these 20 year charts and an overheated 1 min chart...mostly seems to find the middle in general ...half way between 3200 and 6800 could be a possibility 
whats your thoughts on these charts tech a?
cheers


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> ...*mostly seems to find the middle in general *...half way between 3200 and 6800 could be a possibility
> whats your thoughts on these charts tech a?




*Snakey*

There will always be a median.
Price will swing (at times violently) each side of it.
Its the times it swings away and when its returning to the median that we can make a $
When we trade against those swings we are not in sync and thats when we lose.
So identifying and trading in sync = better opportunity to profit.

So its now telling us that we are close to sync and we wait to see if there will be a swing away again.


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> So its now telling us that we are close to sync and we wait to see if there will be a swing away again.




Of course tech that current median line doen't really tell us much for the next 5 years.

If we go back up to 7000 and beyond and stick there or down to 2500 for 5 years that line will in hindsight not be where it is right now.

*Snakey* I'm not so sure what has become known as "smart money" are those that accumulated stocks post 95 as your chart suggests. In fact my guess is that smart money accumulated and distributed many times over in your time frame.


----------



## glenn_r (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Another view using fib trading levels showing the XAO currently trying to break through the 4500 resistance with overhead medium resistance @ 4800 and major @ 5000, the JICD also currently showing bearish divergence.


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Of course tech that current median line doen't really tell us much for the next 5 years




True.
But if we were or do get to a swing situation then we know there needs to be a correction back. Further that is the quicker and more likely that is going to be.We can see this in micro and macro frames.

I'm looking at Drivers.
Whats going to send us flying forward or plummeting downward.

I cant see any *clearly* at this point so I suspect a fair amount of boring ho hum until something festers up!


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



micksof said:


> Yeah..August, Certaily no veteran in the forum business lol



Well, really looking forward to your input mick, even though you're a forum newbie. You must have been watching for a while and are interested in EW. What's your call for the current move?


----------



## Timmy (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OK - 10 consecutive posts without anyone being called a name (specifically Muppet).

This is quite pleasant,* let us keep it this way please.*


----------



## $20shoes (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was looking back over some indicators which I tend not to use but it's interesting to see just how effective they can be sometimes - a descending wedgie on two longer term RSIs picked the bottom to the week. 

Not sure if its clear on the chart but we're playing out an ascending wedge here. I'm still bullish to the 4900 mark. Market seems to be softly, softly right now..might limp higher more than anything volatile.


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> I was looking back over some indicators which I tend not to use but it's interesting to see just how effective they can be sometimes - *a descending wedgie on two longer term RSIs picked the bottom to the week.*




!!!!

Picked the bottom? Mate thats some terribly flawed analysis.


----------



## Chris45 (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Timmy said:


> OK - 10 consecutive posts without anyone being called a name (specifically Muppet).
> 
> This is quite pleasant,* let us keep it this way please.*




*Agree 100%!!!*

Thanks tech/a and the others who posted their *CONSTRUCTIVE* analysis.

Just like mathematical probability, technical analysis is an ATTEMPT to predict the future based on historical data. Some patterns DO repeat themselves, not always exactly, but if we can pick up on a repeating pattern early enough and position ourselves correctly then we can profit handsomely!

I like the count on tech/a’s first chart because there are some Fibonacci relationships in there that suggest that it might be the correct one.


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> Just like mathematical probability, technical analysis is an ATTEMPT to *predict the future* based on historical data.




Interesting. I don't think you can say that. If the prediction part was true then that would show up in win/loss ratio of said analysis.

I'm not so sure that can be mathematically/statistically proven.


----------



## nunthewiser (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Just for Kenna's and Muppet.
> .






tech/a said:


> I want to be in the crowd of Muppets,with nothing to add but plenty to pontificate.






Timmy said:


> OK - 10 consecutive posts without anyone being called a name (specifically Muppet).
> 
> This is quite pleasant,* let us keep it this way please.*






Chris45 said:


> *Agree 100%!!!*
> 
> Thanks tech/a and the others who posted their *CONSTRUCTIVE* analysis.
> 
> .




mmmmmmm 

intresting


----------



## nomore4s (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Interesting. I don't think you can say that. If the prediction part was true then that would show up in win/loss ratio of said analysis.
> 
> I'm not so sure that can be mathematically/statistically proven.




I agree TH, T/A has nothing to do with prediction imo. When we take a trade - no matter the pattern or the analysis to enter the trade - the outcome is unknown.


----------



## Chris45 (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Interesting. I don't think you can say that. If the prediction part was true then that would show up in win/loss ratio of said analysis.
> 
> I'm not so sure that can be mathematically/statistically proven.




Well, I did say "attempt", but if you disagree then how would you define technical analysis?

Google define:technical analysis


----------



## nomore4s (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> Well, I did say "attempt", but if you disagree then how would you define technical analysis?
> 
> Google define:technical analysis




To me T/A is about trying to reveal the intentions of others and trying to get on the right side of those intentions.

No form of T/A works without good money & trade management, this to me speaks volumes about how T/A is best used in trading. If you think you're predicting anything with T/A you're kidding yourself imo.


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

technical analysis is an ATTEMPT to *ANTICIPATE* the future based on historical data

Think thats more to the point.
However Chris's chart is no more than a grapghical account of past price action expressed as an RSI. If you have a good look at the mathamatics behind it you'll see it has no predictive value in the math itself.

However the pattern Wedge and or Divergence has some Anticipatory value.
Best used with other analytical tools*.(Just like E/W).*


----------



## micksof (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Well, really looking forward to your input mick, even though you're a forum newbie. You must have been watching for a while and are interested in EW. What's your call for the current move?





Well, might take us a while on how to learn to post charts.

Let me see know what can I tell you. Firstly I am very directional trader and so the trend is now up and riding with it. How long will the current move last? Well Kennarico, I am not that good, but I think it will last into next year, at present I am banking on April to May and between 4960-5200 before we head south again.

I am heavily invested in Gold ETF's and Gold miners as I am very bullish Gold over the next 10 year. Happy now?


----------



## motorway (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> Well, I did say "attempt", but if you disagree then how would you define technical analysis?
> 
> Google define:technical analysis




The speedometer in my car does not predict anything by itself



But it is still very useful
and much can be anticipated from it
and many conclusions drawn

particularly useful when going past speed cameras for instance
Keeping in harmony

* For identifying*
You name it turning points
trends
consolidations
reversals
exhaustion

BEHAVIOURS

Everything builds bit by bit
then happens ALL at once


motorway


----------



## Chris45 (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> However Chris's chart is no more than a grapghical account of past price action expressed as an RSI. If you have a good look at the mathamatics behind it you'll see it has no predictive value in the math itself.




Don't you mean $20shoes's chart?


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> Don't you mean $20shoes's chart?




Yes sorry.


----------



## motorway (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Here is The ( & I mean *THE* there is only one )
> Primary Trend of the Market (200 pt chart of XAO is beyond manipulation )
> 
> It gives indication that the bottom is in ( until further notice  )
> ...




moved to 160 pt chart 

This chart is in full Bull MODE
and could well move to the top of the arrow ( old support there to be regained / new resistance proves )

Now again so far it  corrects only in time ( Yes these charts actually are the only type that _reveal_ Time...

But under the surface at the 80 pt level
there is energy being transferred (= work done )
and the "happen all at once" will be revealed at this level
( actually at 60 pt chart )

The moves on the 160 pt chart are 4 times as significant as the moves on the 80 pt chart BUT--- That is when it is moving..

KEY POINT the cycles of the market though infinite
are aperiodic = They can all be in the same time frame at the same time
or be in totally separate time frames at the same time..

_Only some aspects of aperiodic waves  can be reliably used to identify them_

It still looks like a BULL MARKET
and those who wait for corrections in price in Bull Markets ?

Use the 60/80 pt chart to manage risk
and time for the next move
least correction in Time becomes a correction in Price


watch out  for supply entering

motorway


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> how would you define technical analysis?
> 
> Google define:technical analysis




Chris I do not need to define it. I do not need it to attemp to predict anything for me.

I use it to confirm my bias/subconscious so I can act on an uncertain outcome. I use it to stay in a winning trade or get out of a loser quickly. End of story.

That's why I always say learn how your market moves and don't waste endless time on TA.

I'll leave that to the paper trade guru's.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think I may have worked out a simple way on TA to decide whether this is a recent low on the xao heading north or a dcb. 

I enclose a chart of the xao going back to 1980, a monthly.

I've drawn a trendline along the lows and then created a channel at the high of 1987.

I've then drawn a parallel line through the recent muppet high.

Channel analysis works on comparing channels of the same depth or multiples of.

As luck would have it the upper channel is twice the depth of the lower.

Thus I am unsure if recent price action signifies the end of the bear. Should prices retrace and kick off the 4400/4500 and then head north , I feel we can say goodbye to the bear.

Should prices fall back in to the lower channel then the xao is rooned.

gg


----------



## theasxgorilla (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> These are AGET generated wave counts and will not be to the liking of Elliott Purists.




It's one of the _ugliest_ looking counts I've seen in a long time.  Talk about forcing it in there.


----------



## theasxgorilla (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Snakey said:


> looks to be still on track with original prediction
> interesting the similarity between these 20 year charts and an overheated 1 min chart...mostly seems to find the middle in general ...half way between 3200 and 6800 could be a possibility




Very cool analysis Snakey.

Although I think that the "mean" ought to be a moving average of some kind.  I think an MA is by nature adaptive, and that old data ought not be weighted as significantly as new.  If you used a long-MA you might find that the despair phase has already completed, and now we're in the "oh $^%@ we over did it again" phase .


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> It's one of the _ugliest_ looking counts I've seen in a long time.  Talk about forcing it in there.




The daily is ugly.
Thats what you get when you use an algorithm to as you say force a count.The Weekly however looks far better.

Still has the same outcome.


----------



## theasxgorilla (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> The daily is ugly.
> Thats what you get when you use an algorithm to as you say force a count.*The Weekly however looks far better.*
> 
> Still has the same outcome.




Agreed.  Although I can't see a catalyst for how the W5 is going to get below the end of W3.  As earnings in the big end of town have held up, and subsequently dividends, prices shall move up to moderate yields.  Just a Simple Simon take on it.


----------



## Chris45 (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I use it to confirm my bias/subconscious so I can act on an uncertain outcome. I use it to stay in a winning trade or get out of a loser quickly. End of story.
> 
> That's why I always say learn how your market moves and don't waste endless time on TA.



I agree with you about the importance of learning “how your market moves” and that’s what I thought EW analysis was all about - attempting to understand how the market moves so we can form an opinion on future market direction and get an edge over a simple coin toss when the time comes to enter the market.

We don’t all work in the same time frame and if your methodology involves your personal “bias/subconscious” as well as a different time frame, then what works for you may not work for someone else.

However, I think we probably agree that TA is only a small part of the methodology and that psychology and management are the major factors that determine the win/loss ratio of a particular methodology.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Jeez,

I thought I did a brilliant channel analysis today and nobody has commented about it, good or bad.

When my analysis comes to fruition I will make sure that I stick it to you "senior people" .

From a muppet.

Sincerely, 

gg


----------



## beamstas (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> However, I think we probably agree that TA is only a small part of the methodology and that psychology and management are the major factors that determine the win/loss ratio of a particular methodology.




Luck
Is another


----------



## motorway (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> Luck
> Is another




Nothing Beats Timing




> Ecclesiastes 3:1-8
> 
> *1.To everything there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven: *
> 
> ...




If the trend is UP BUY
If the Trend is DOWN SELL & WAIT

of course it helps to be able define THE TREND ( singular )

motorway


----------



## beamstas (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> Nothing Beats Timing




Luck = The Precursor
Timing = The Hindsight

Timing is backwards looking whilst luck will determine if your timing is correct.


----------



## motorway (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> Luck = The Precursor
> Timing = The Hindsight
> 
> Timing is backwards looking whilst luck will determine if your timing is correct.




No if it is going down wait can you see on the XAO chart ( I posted )where & when  it was going down ?

Can you see when it stopped going down ?
can you see when it started to go UP ?

ssshhh atm It is still going UP

OK so far NO hindsight..

It is not hindsight to identify (objectively )
What is the trend right NOW..

or Poetically the Season

ALWAYS ALWAYS plant in Spring

yes luck plays it's part
but you will need much less and what looks like LUCK
only looks so to those who didn't know any better than to plant in WINTER

motorway


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> I agree with you about the importance of learning “how your market moves” and that’s what I thought EW analysis was all about - attempting to understand how the market moves so we can form an opinion on future market direction and get an edge over a simple coin toss when the time comes to enter the market.



 Na you have completely missed my point. I don't believe you should go to any market with a set of "rules" and then try and fit them to form your understanding.

I know its the basis for most peoples approach but......


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Agreed.  Although I can't see a catalyst for how the W5 is going to get below the end of W3.  As earnings in the big end of town have held up, and subsequently dividends, prices shall move up to moderate yields.  Just a Simple Simon take on it.




Odd waves 1,3,5 are trending waves.
corrective waves are even 2,4.
Wave 5 will always be higher/lower or equal to 3.
I think I remember reading somewhere that in some cases wave 5 wont reach wave 3--but could be wrong.

So then what then if price never makes it.
Then there will be an alternate count which will see wave 3 miraculously morph into wave 5

*GG*
Saw your chart but didnt think it very spectacular.---Sorry.
Only kidding 2x width of channel is a common technical measurement something I hadnt noticed.

Cheers
tech/a---Muppet caller.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Odd waves 1,3,5 are trending waves.
> corrective waves are even 2,4.
> Wave 5 will always be higher/lower or equal to 3.
> I think I remember reading somewhere that in some cases wave 5 wont reach wave 3--but could be wrong.
> ...




No worries mate.

gg


----------



## nomore4s (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> Agreed.  Although I can't see a catalyst for how the W5 is going to get below the end of W3.  As earnings in the big end of town have held up, and subsequently dividends, prices shall move up to moderate yields.  Just a Simple Simon take on it.




I agree and it is something the Perma bears are overlooking. Earnings so far have held up resonably well compared to the doom & gloom forecasts last year. The economy - especially in Australia & parts of Asia is still pretty good, I'm not seeing alot of hardship out there atm, life seems to be going on for the majority.


----------



## theasxgorilla (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Odd waves 1,3,5 are trending waves.
> corrective waves are even 2,4.
> Wave 5 will always be higher/lower or equal to 3.
> I think I remember reading somewhere that in some cases wave 5 wont reach wave 3--but could be wrong.




Yes, thats correct.  Remember, there are only 3-4 _rules_ in EW and none of them say that W5 must exceed W3.  As with everything not mapping to the EW rules, there are exceptions.

It was more a heads up for the less involved who might expect that the weekly count you posted is anticipating a move below the March lows.  As you have already mentioned yourself on several occasions, EW should not be used in isolation.  I find a cursory glace at reality to be useful from time to time .


----------



## $20shoes (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> !!!!
> 
> Picked the bottom? Mate thats some terribly flawed analysis.




TH, are you squabbling over *a* pronoun?? Perhaps I should have said "a" bottom. That is some fetish you have there!! 

Tech/A - no predictive value ?? My post from 26th Oct 08 - 

I have placed a longer term view of the weekly RSI since '87. 
i) you will notice that at (0), the RSI has failed to reach its lower trendline (may still), so a divergence is possibly forming. It is reaching a low it has never seen since and including '87.
ii) A Descending wedge at (1) suggests we are about to sharply correct back up from an oversold level we have never known since and including '87.

You guys crack me up with your "I've been around the blocks enough times to dismiss indicators" attitude. What the #@!& is EW if not a means to predict a target based on historical data you use to form a wave?? I can take almost any indicator - any indicator - and use this to predict future price action too. I can target off s/r, you can;t say that this is somehow incorrect or impure (just more smoothed)? Its all based on bloody maths and statistics and probabilities. Just because an indicator is backwards looking ( so is raw volume by the way) doesn't mean it cant serve a purpose. If that purpose id to define your edge and you say " I can't find an edge using backwards looking smooth ass indicators" then I would agree that they should perhaps not constitute the toolset you use to differ your approach to a market. 

Still, I loved that clear breakout signal from the lows. I ain't seen nothing as simple and as clear as that.


----------



## $20shoes (29 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oh TH, I think I know where you're coming from - 

you mean i'm using the tail to wag the dog?? lol TRUE yes and that is flawed, agreed. I was just meaning to highlight how in sync an indicator breakout was to the price action at the time - it was just a very clear signal - just wanted to share it...no biggy, and hindsight's not helping anyone!!


----------



## tech/a (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Shoes.
Analysis isn't Predicting anything its Anticipating a move.

Your wedge formation took a great deal of time to be confirmed and you could have been anticipating the analysis for sometime.In hindsite just like E/W all is crystal clear.Doesnt mean it is of no value.

I think the dismissal of indicators from my part comes from their impractical use in Discretionary trading trading oscillators in Realtime I have found to be far to slow and far to inaccurate.In Discretionary short term trading I'm looking for high win rates and lower/R/R.  They can have a part to play in Systems trading where a repetition of technical characteristics return a positive expectancy.Here I look for Lower win rates and Higher R/R.

While it may seen like anticipation and prediction are similar they are streets apart.


----------



## tech/a (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> Oh TH, I think I know where you're coming from -
> 
> you mean i'm using the tail to wag the dog?? lol TRUE yes and that is flawed, agreed. *I was just meaning to highlight how in sync an indicator breakout was to the price action at the time *- it was just a very clear signal - just wanted to share it...no biggy, and hindsight's not helping anyone!!




In hindsite this analysis is 100% accurate.
Will happen 100% of the time.


----------



## $20shoes (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Fair points Tech. I don't really disagree. When you look back in time, as per most indicators, you have to consider whether you're forcing a signal to comply to a bias or position you hold, and indeed whether that indicator is really telling you "anything" at all. It's not perhaps assisting in getting you "inside" the market. This is hard to articulate, but you almost want to pare everything back until you are "inside the matrix" dealing with what is substantial, more than the noise we tend to create. On that note, I believe Motorway, with his P&F charts, and his simple yet elegant  advice, may actually be inside the matrix .

I remember one pearl from Nick Radge (forgive me Nick, if I'm misquoting), but he said:

_You might use an indicator to help get you into the market...you might need it to actually feel comfortable about taking a trade, but it's just a crutch. The market pays it no heed...you're probably using it to help you feel better about the position you just took. If you need a crutch to help you live with your decisions, then use it. But don't forget to treat it as nothing more than a crutch._

When i started in TA, I bought plenty of books on indicators - that paragraph above is all I really ever needed. 

BTW, may have come across as overly hostile. Apologies on that front. I cite ASF and all the thousands of postings you guys write as the second biggest influence on my trading education.


----------



## beamstas (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

$20shoes,

You even stated yourself that you were looking through some indicators and just happen to notice a certain RSI would have picked "A" or "The" bottom.

Im sure that if you go and curve fit enough you'll find a different RSI amount has "pedicted" (in hindsight) the next turn in the market. 

How does this help you going forwards? 

The fact is that this certain RSI combination has no more predictive power than any other random combination. The market didn't move becuase of the RSI, you have just fit it over what the market did and now you have a narration.

The 5th sitting of the 2nd meeting of the 3rd session of the 8th parliament of Uganda was on the 3rd of March, This also predicted the bottom of the market. This has as much predictive power as your falling wedge on the rsi.


----------



## $20shoes (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> $20shoes,
> 
> You even stated yourself that you were looking through some indicators and just happen to notice a certain RSI would have picked "A" or "The" bottom.
> 
> ...




Yes understand where you are coming from Beamstas. And its a good lesson to learn too!!
The only thing I will say ( i don't want to hijack this thread to discuss T/A), as the devil's advocate, is that, although they are in no way forward looking, a confluence of signals -be they backward looking indicators or other tools/data - can provide some great anticipatory evidence. We simply don't know whats going to happen tomorrow, but from what has transpired to the left of my screen, there is a "higher" probability of an occurrence than there may have been at some other point in the past.

In this way, one may say that on my XAO chart, and looking back, it had never been so oversold; that such a long term indication of a descending wedge might be used to try and time a powerful breakout, that we saw stopping volume at the bottom, etc etc. That is, although we don't have a predictive capability, we have our "crutch" that says "you know what, the risk/reward looks good right now" - I'll wait for the market to move. I'lll use my crutch to tell me I should be long right now and I'll manage my positions like a good little boy should.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

$20shoes I agree but beamstas will not. The obvious response to your comment for the price action only guys is you don't need RSI or any other indicator to tell you we are "oversold" when the Index gets halved in a year!! 

And that a bounce is due after the leverage is cleaned out and acceleration down slows.

Indicators are not totally useless. They can be handy _some_ of the time but probably the bigger issue is that a lot of the people using them are useless. Like most methods - EW, tapereading, price action, dartboard.

Exception being Gann which well all know is a fraud, the Gannist continually prove that for us.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Indicators are not totally useless. They can be handy _some_ of the time but probably the bigger issue is that a lot of the people using them are useless. Like most methods - EW, tapereading, price action, dartboard.




TH, I don't understand what you mean here, what do you mean "Like most methods...."? They are all useless? What is useless about the people using them? 

BTW, I'm not disagreeing, just wondering what you mean if you say "indicators are not useless" but then finish off saying "like most methods"?


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> TH, I don't understand what you mean here, what do you mean "Like most methods...."? They are all useless? What is useless about the people using them?
> 
> BTW, I'm not disagreeing, just wondering what you mean if you say "indicators are not useless" but then finish off saying "like most methods"?




I'm saying peoples use of the tools are wrong. People become religiously attached to methods believing they are the source of success and just like religion defend them to the death. Without ever considering their failures. *Without considering the times that their success is fitted to their experience recalling the right pattern at the right time rather than the pattern being right.* Subconsciously or consciously recalling the right process at the right time due to building up a big database of experience & patterns.

My thinking is moving more and more to the yes you can be right more than wrong, yes you can time the market - even to the minutes, yes they are chaotic but certainly not random. Its not TA its not FA its EA - Experienced Analysis (recalling the right type of analysis/pattern at the right time). 

Have a look at the H & S thread. At last count 23% correct!! FFS!! Thats a disaster. Have a look at OWGs near on 8 months of incorrect calls based on EW!! F Me!! Its not the method its the users poor application of fitting the wrong pattern at the wrong time. 

People learn patterns/traditional TA (H&S, EW, Double tops etc) then go and look for these patterns in markets. Thats a Farkin insane approach. That's like teaching doctors disease cures before they know anatomy 101 or learn diagnostic skills. No other "professional" learning development is as stuffed up and ar$e about as trading - and the results are there to prove it


----------



## beamstas (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

TH im not arguing that Rsi is useless
Im arguing that going back over past charts and fitting an RSI over it so that it shows that it "picked the bottom" is useless and a waste of time.


----------



## motorway (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I'm saying peoples use of the tools are wrong. People become religiously attached to methods believing they are the source of success and just like religion defend them to the death. Without ever considering their failures. *Without considering the times that their success is fitted to their experience recalling the right pattern at the right time rather than the pattern being right.* Subconsciously or consciously recalling the right process at the right time due to building up a big database of experience & patterns.
> 
> My thinking is moving more and more to the yes you can be right more than wrong, yes you can time the market - even to the minutes, yes they are chaotic but certainly not random. Its not TA its not FA its EA - Experienced Analysis (recalling the right type of analysis/pattern at the right time).
> 
> ...




Tend to agree
and why i say that the universe of what should be tested is very small compared to what is

All those patterns and shapes and waves ( particular ones like elliots )
are not important

what is important are general patterns
of starting & stopping
of expectations changing
stillness and movement]
trending and consolidation
etc

To worry about Nr7 or ROC or RSI 

What is xyz doing right NOW
How is what it is doing changing
etc
Objective identification of general patterns of
up down faster slower sideways

price consolidates trends

here is a very good PDF

on Expectations Perceptions
anticipation feedback & feed-forward

very worthwhile to read

It is a easy read The Hot Dog Story that opens is very good

http://www.zyen.com/Activities/Even...s Rather Than Rules v1.4 - for email v1.0.pdf


This from another source is Key



> what most people tend to forget is that buying and selling a stock mainly means dealing with other people. When you buy a stock, it means that you find it "cheap". It also means that someone else finds it "expensive". This means that the concepts of "cheap" and "expensive" had better be measured against the group of traders who are active in the stock instead of against some other measure. Why is this? The simple answer is that on the stock market, we are not trading "reality", but rather the perception of that reality. Therefore, instead of talking about "cheap" or "expensive", we'd better talk about "expectation".  Pascal Willian




What do trading ranges/ consolidations/ congestions build ?

EXPECTATIONS  
Not only hands But minds are changed
FEEDBACK + FEEDFORWARD

& Expectations are probably all the reality there is ( and here the golden key is scale ..scale is what needs to be TESTED )

motorway


----------



## Dark1975 (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I enjoyed reading the past threads of recent with E/W and past price action expressed as an RSI.But looking at the past seven consecutive gains on the dow(besides friday -36.43)The lack of movement on the xao,I'm comparing the stochastic view on the xao to the dow.
In the next few weeks im predicting a correction on the xao to 4100-4150Comparing past performances in the month of september,I cant see the 4084 being broken as key resistance point.Then the bulls will regather again to move towards 4900 before december.





The stochastic view is well overbought for the short term,Considering how much our market follows the dow(hot air balloon),The stochastic slow on the dow is changing.
I think we know the bulls are in control in the market at present,But the bears will come out to play in my view as a short term


----------



## $20shoes (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> $20shoes I agree but beamstas will not. The obvious response to your comment for the price action only guys is you don't need RSI or any other indicator to tell you we are "oversold" when the Index gets halved in a year!!
> 
> And that a bounce is due after the leverage is cleaned out and acceleration down slows.
> 
> ...




Thanks TH. What you mention is definitely the type of thinking that traders should be conditioned to read from market movements. I guess when you instinctively know how to read price action, a lot of indicators simply become unnecessary and even superfluous. 


It seems like a lot of people, including myself, get their education ass-about and then spend the next few years wondering why their indicators aren't cutting the mustard in the real world. 

You kinda reach a point where you eat humble pie, and start trying to "unknow" all those things you thought you knew.


----------



## Boggo (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I am using the DOW as a possible guide at the moment.

The chart below assumes that we are in a Wave 3 and potential targets for that W.3 might be as indicated on the chart below.
Note also an area of potential resistance within the target area.

Just my 

(click to expand)


----------



## micksof (30 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Its not the method its the users poor application of fitting the wrong pattern at the wrong time.




You can say that again bro!


----------



## swm79 (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Multiples don't look very attractive at 5000 by the end of the year (which is what some people have been predicting)

bearing in mind - the US is the dog and we're the tail - the US consumer (representing 70% of US GDP) has lost another 1% of real disposable income in July and nearly 10% of Americans are out of a job


----------



## Dark1975 (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



swm79 said:


> Multiples don't look very attractive at 5000 by the end of the year (which is what some people have been predicting)
> 
> bearing in mind - the US is the dog and we're the tail - the US consumer (representing 70% of US GDP) has lost another 1% of real disposable income in July and nearly 10% of Americans are out of a job




Yeah the dow reminds me of a hot air balloon ready to pop!Well really has the information from wall street ever looked good?Just a rally im following at the moment.But slowly selling out of postion,at the moment only 30% of my portfolio is in the market(not much faith in this pack of cards at the moment).
Be more confident to see a correction.


----------



## swm79 (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> Yeah the dow reminds me of a hot air balloon ready to pop!Well really has the information from wall street ever looked good?Just a rally im following at the moment.But slowly selling out of postion,at the moment only 30% of my portfolio is in the market(not much faith in this pack of cards at the moment).
> Be more confident to see a correction.




i'm only going for stock i truely believe in, undervalued and ripe for a re-rating but there's not much of that out there at all at the moment. especially not in the ASX200


----------



## theasxgorilla (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



swm79 said:


> bearing in mind - *the US is the dog and we're the tail* - the US consumer (representing 70% of US GDP) has lost another 1% of real disposable income in July and nearly 10% of Americans are out of a job




It's a rather long dog though, and somewhere in the middle is China and it's however many trillion of USD reserves and a will spend them (in our resources sector).


----------



## swm79 (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

granted, but they're (China) not buying THAT much at the moment... it almost seems like their poised waiting to strike... is that why they started talking to RIO again - repairing relations before another down trend and then another attempted take over???

is it because the US 10-year bond market (which is down at 3.45% again - pricing in a correction of the market) is telling them a different story to that of Wall Street... soon one is going to have to correct itself


----------



## bowman (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A trend channel of the rally so far.

The vertical lines? 

Ummmm, I had a few drinks on the weekend and drew in the days of the full moon.


----------



## skyQuake (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bowman said:


> A trend channel of the rally so far.
> 
> The vertical lines?
> 
> Ummmm, I had a few drinks on the weekend and drew in the days of the full moon.




lol @ the stoch. Overbought? Short here  Jkjk

My experience with trend channels is that they break to the side its trending, before correcting savagely and forming a countertrend.

Have a look at old xjo charts.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> My experience with trend channels is that they break to the side its trending, before correcting savagely and forming a countertrend.




Haven't found this, but you probably have more experience than I do  

To me, today being the last day of august, makes the monthly look weak to me, high volume, narrow spread up bar, would expect it to be tested or some sort of down move from here- september not known for being too good a month usually either. 

Just a thought


----------



## Timmy (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



swm79 said:


> is it because the US 10-year bond market (which is down at 3.45% again - pricing in a correction of the market) is telling them a different story to that of Wall Street... soon one is going to have to correct itself




Agree - has been very worthwhile paying attention to the US bonds lately, wrt the Chinese mkt.


----------



## nunthewiser (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Timmy said:


> Agree - has been very worthwhile paying attention to the US bonds lately, wrt the Chinese mkt.





wrt ?


----------



## white_goodman (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> wrt ?




with respect to???


----------



## Dark1975 (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Im just slipping in to my bear suit now,Going on top of my bull suit for this month.


----------



## nunthewiser (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> with respect to???




cheers ..makes sense


----------



## Real1ty (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> Im just slipping in to my bear suit now,Going on top of my bull suit for this month.




Seems you have many suits....



Dark1975 said:


> I've shorted the market the last few days on financials?Going very well






Dark1975 said:


> Cause generally I havn't got time to ramble all day cause i am trading 5 CFD shorts at the moment,I'll be back later to further comment.
> .


----------



## Timmy (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> wrt ?




Sorry Nun, yes White got it - with respect to.


----------



## nunthewiser (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

cheers


----------



## Dark1975 (31 August 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Real1ty said:


> Seems you have many suits....




haha,I couldn't be bothered to pull up your individual threads.*But your point being?*Cause it seems you have spent some time pulling up some of my random quotes out of different threads!


----------



## Edwood (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bowman said:


> A trend channel of the rally so far.
> 
> The vertical lines?
> 
> Ummmm, I had a few drinks on the weekend and drew in the days of the full moon.




how does it look if you add the new moon days bowman?


----------



## bowman (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> how does it look if you add the new moon days bowman?




Well I'll probably be drinking again next weekend so I'll let you know. 

I really only drew these in for a bit of fun, and the only conclusion I have arrived at so far is that....ahhhh, a full moon seems to occur on avearge once a month.

But seriously, even though I only did this for a giggle, it is intriguing that the March low and the July break up from the head and shoulders pattern both occured near a full moon (and a couple of the high turning points in the channel also coincide with full moons).

However I went aggressively long just after the bottom, and the head and shoulders pattern anyway, without having this information. 

But as a short term trader and daytrader I go aggressively long on a regular basis anyway LOL.

Right now the charts and the market commentry suggests a correction is a good possibility, so I only have a few long positions and I'm restricting myself to daytrading announcements or any other momentum I can find.

Meanwhile, there's a full moon coming up this weekend, so stay tuned (and stay liquid).


----------



## Sean K (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ladies and gents, as an administrative note I think you should be aware that Micksof has been banned (again) as he is a past member who was suspended for operating multiple accounts (who actually spoke to each other) and were subsequently suspended for personal abuse. He has subsequently tried to rejoin under several different personalities that have all been suspended.

Previous incarnations of this member included:

Machi
Wavepicker
Kinezikens 
Libba
Skyhawk
Stoner

And now, Micksof.

If you look back through the threads you will find Machi congratulating Wavepicker and in one of Stoners first posts he stated he would be keenly following the posts of Wavepicker. 

It is a sad tale as Wavepicker did have great knowledge on EW and was willing to post up quite detailed charts and analysis occasionally. 

Unfortunately, operating multiple accounts and consistantly abusing people for having opinions that counter your own are not permitted as part of the Code of Conduct, and Posting Guidelines. 

Much of this you probably would not have seen as it was moderated. 

We do not often out members who have been suspended for operating multiple accounts, but if it is in the interests of other members it can be appropriate. After seven personalities, I think it was time you all knew.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ROFLMAO


funny place the internet


----------



## trainspotter (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Maybe one of his incantations should have been Cybil? LMAO

Tosser must have been a schizophrenic or sumfing?


----------



## bowman (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some people are just plain weird.

I've ALWAYS made a point of only using ONE personality online and keeping the other six for the real world.


----------



## RayG (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bowman said:


> Some people are just plain weird.
> 
> I've ALWAYS made a point of only using ONE personality online and keeping the other six for the real world.




LMAO

I also struggle with the concept of reality... tenuous grasp sometimes...

Like what's behind todays rally?  ... is the *market* losing touch with reality, maybe I need multiple personalities as well?

Regards
Ray


----------



## bowman (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> LMAO
> 
> I also struggle with the concept of reality... tenuous grasp sometimes...
> 
> ...




Yep, go figure. I suppose it helps that  Shanghai is green today. Also according to The Australian, manufacturing is on the up as are building approvals.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

your the greatest nun 





oops hang on perhaps i need another account first to make it sound realistic ?


----------



## Sean K (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> your the greatest nun
> 
> oops hang on perhaps i need another account first to make it sound realistic ?



Yes, you do.

I'll wave the infraction on this occasion.


----------



## Broadway (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> Like what's behind todays rally?  ... is the *market* losing touch with reality, maybe I need multiple personalities as well?
> 
> Regards
> Ray




ES hit volume support at 1013 last night. Bears were pushing hard but just hit too many people buying.

Sycom hinted at it.


----------



## Dark1975 (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> ES hit volume support at 1013 last night. Bears were pushing hard but just hit too many people buying.
> 
> Sycom hinted at it.




Yeap agreed ,I was watching the dow @ 96.67 @ 12.15am this morning and woke up in disbelief to see a pullback,hmm maybe my bear suit will have to be put back in the carboard for now.Need to re-chart again.


----------



## Joe Blow (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have moved all the EW related debate to a new thread in the Trading Strategies/Systems forum here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17069

If people want to continue the debate they can do so over there.

Lets just have XAO Analysis in here from this point forward.

Thanks!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (2 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

bit of no demand yesterday, volume was less than the last 4 days, narrow spread---top of channel, US confirmation overnight for those in any shorts. be interesting to see what happens around 4260....if we get that low over the coming days.


----------



## MR. (2 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> your the greatest nun




Classic.... that's funny....

Yes, you're the greatest Nun!  


PS: As I have concluded to have no idea where the XAO is going what do people think about down for the next 4 weeks before the about-face?


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MR. said:


> PS: As I have concluded to have no idea where the XAO is going what do people think about down for the next 4 weeks before the about-face?





On a side note. Don't be surprised if the rest of Asia excluding japa's and even Europe is green today. China is, Korea nearly there, Taiwan not far off. Honkers not far off.

Just go's to show the US follows Asia. :


----------



## white_goodman (2 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hey I was just wondering if someone could post an update of the dow jones vs Shanghai Composite


----------



## nunthewiser (2 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> hey I was just wondering if someone could post an update of the dow jones vs Shanghai Composite




theres a long term one in the shanghai thread but that might not be what you wanting


----------



## dhukka (2 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> hey I was just wondering if someone could post an update of the dow jones vs Shanghai Composite




Here's one of the S&P500 vs the Shanghai Composite I updated recently.


----------



## white_goodman (2 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dhukka said:


> Here's one of the S&P500 vs the Shanghai Composite I updated recently.




yeah thats the beautiful lookin one, thanks brah


----------



## Dark1975 (3 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Geez our market is still bullish.The dow in which we follow has had thin volume and scarey to think most people on wall street are trading the big four failed banks(freddie mac/citigroup/bank of america & fannie mae).As to add we all think the month of september traditionally trades downwards,further note when i see the goverment spining up we are out of a recession with still high unemployment and impending higher interest rates on the horizon i get nervous.
Well maybe im just a bear deep down,After Humphrey b bear was axed from channel nine i havn't been the samesorry just some light humour).


----------



## Dark1975 (3 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> BHP not being bullish  could change in the blink of an eye but still going lower on a daily basis ....be it a boringly slow pace
> 
> MIGHT bounce around here actually and happy to close at any given moment it hits trailing stop




More in reguards to the Financials today considering the general outlook.


----------



## nunthewiser (3 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

has removed last post as it dont fit in the xao thread


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I still reckon my simple longterm chart is a good pointer for predicting where this recent dcb imho will go or not.

If the xao dips into the lower channel on the monthly then we are back in to a bear scenario.

If it falls and touches the trendline and takes off then we are in a new bull.


gg


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> If the xao dips into the lower channel on the monthly then we are back in to a bear scenario.
> 
> If it falls and touches the trendline and takes off then we are in a new bull.
> 
> ...




No chance of a false break bear channel gg? You could call it the,

FBBCGG indicator.


----------



## Nyden (5 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> If it falls and touches the trendline and takes off then we are in a new bull.
> 
> 
> gg





And, if it just keeps going up? Perhaps there are just too many waiting for this elusive fall, having not gotten in earlier?


----------



## Sean K (5 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> And, if it just keeps going up? Perhaps there are just too many waiting for this elusive fall, having not gotten in earlier?



Seems like every dip has been bought up over the past few months. And every rally...


----------



## Awesomandy (5 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> And, if it just keeps going up? Perhaps there are just too many waiting for this elusive fall, having not gotten in earlier?




Given the current economic conditions, it doesn't seem likely to just keep going up - stocks still seem very expensive to me when there are so many uncertainty, and most of the developed countries around the world are arguably in a worse shape than we are. The fact remains that we are not decoupled from the rest of the world.

I guess I personally fit in to the camp of "waiting for this elusive fall", but still trying to milk out whatever gains there are for the time being (not that it has actually moved much over the past month in a net term). 

There's still quite a bit of cash lying around, and it appears to me that people are possibly just buying blindly at any dips. I think that, soon, people will start to think that they'll just have to get in before it's too late, dips or not. So, I'm somewhat expecting a "sheep" rally in the short term - when everyone floods in, not knowing that there's a cliff right in front of them...


----------



## Nyden (5 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Awesomandy said:


> Given the current economic conditions, it doesn't seem likely to just keep going up - stocks still seem very expensive to me when there are so many uncertainty, and most of the developed countries around the world are arguably in a worse shape than we are. The fact remains that we are not decoupled from the rest of the world.
> 
> I guess I personally fit in to the camp of "waiting for this elusive fall", but still trying to milk out whatever gains there are for the time being (not that it has actually moved much over the past month in a net term).
> 
> There's still quite a bit of cash lying around, and it appears to me that people are possibly just buying blindly at any dips. I think that, soon, people will start to think that they'll just have to get in before it's too late, dips or not. So, I'm somewhat expecting a "sheep" rally in the short term - when everyone floods in, not knowing that there's a cliff right in front of them...




Again, you can't know that there's a cliff right in front of us. Hasn't moved much in the past month?? Guess it depends on what you're in. Well over 15% last month for me ...

If the average consumer regains confidence -which is happening- then the economy will eventually begin to start following the markets, by way of a recovery.

We do not need to be decoupled from the world, because the world isn't ending.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (6 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For those interested in XAO analysis...


----------



## MrBurns (6 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I test drove a BMW M3 yesterday and was very tempted, I'd have to dob in about $100k on top of my own car.
I decided thats madness and was planning on putting the $100k into shares this week, but after seeing that I guess not.


----------



## sammy84 (6 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I use OZwaveguy's analysis as a contrarian indicator :


----------



## Largesse (6 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> I test drove a BMW M3 yesterday and was very tempted, I'd have to dob in about $100k on top of my own car.
> I decided thats madness and was planning on putting the $100k into shares this week, but after seeing that I guess not.





my old man has one.

get one. they are simply awesome


----------



## MrBurns (6 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Largesse said:


> my old man has one.
> 
> get one. they are simply awesome




I was very impressed, it's a damn race car, the noise was just fabulous.
These things deprerciate like buggery though, got caught once before not in a hurry to repeat the exercise, but sometimes I think, I'll just do it, much more exciting than any Porsche I've driven.


----------



## tech/a (6 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hire one for a month or so.

Cheaper and you'll eventually get over it.


----------



## MrBurns (6 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Hire one for a month or so.
> 
> Cheaper and you'll eventually get over it.




Wise words.


----------



## drsmith (6 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't want to be around if it falls to 300 but then that may not be an issue.

A fall of that magnitude globally would require such a serious setback to civilisation as to significantly reduce the global human population.


----------



## Muschu (6 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Hire one for a month or so.
> 
> Cheaper and you'll eventually get over it.




I agree "Wise words".  Cars, houses, boats are just that and only that.  They can become distractions to valuing family, relationships, health and the plight of so many millions of others.  

I have no answers but often have to remind myself of how fortunate I already am.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Muschu said:


> They can become distractions to valuing family, relationships, health and the plight of so many millions of others.




Buy one for your son, your girlfriend(don't yell your wife), push it up your drive way everyday and let anyone have a drive. 

Simple  

Nothing wrong with having a hobby/interest or two, not much point trying to please everyone, that has an even higher failure rate than traders. IMO ofcourse  

BTW, pfffft it aint no race car, go by the Nissan dealership and pick up a new GTR if you want a decent race car with a sound that gives you shivers : About the same money too, suck the doors clean off the M3.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Excuse me fellas if I could interrupt you conversation,

I think the Bears are in trouble here. Its very possible that we are going straight up with the talk of not letting up on the stimulus from the monkeys at the G20 over the weekend.

Thats a big green light to assets inflation. The Currencies are certainly taking it that way this morn.


----------



## swm79 (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

still, the US keeps loosing jobs... whens that going to stop?!... and they cheered on friday when they *ONLY* lost 216,000 in August because it was the lowest monthly fall in a year!


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



swm79 said:


> still, the US keeps loosing jobs... whens that going to stop?!... and they cheered on friday when they *ONLY* lost 216,000 in August because it was the lowest monthly fall in a year!




point being? .....you expect jobs to be created before any recovery starts?


----------



## Sean K (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



swm79 said:


> still, the US keeps loosing jobs... whens that going to stop?!... and they cheered on friday when they *ONLY* lost 216,000 in August because it was the lowest monthly fall in a year!



I suppose the question the stock market is asking is: 'is this as bad as it gets?'

If so, then it's a potential near term bottom. Buy, buy, buy!

Or, unemployment goes to 50% and nothing is factored in.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Excuse me fellas if I could interrupt you conversation,
> 
> I think the Bears are in trouble here. Its very possible that we are going straight up with the talk of not letting up on the stimulus from the monkeys at the G20 over the weekend.
> 
> Thats a big green light to assets inflation. The Currencies are certainly taking it that way this morn.




I know which way the USD is going to be taking it, just a matter of time for parity for the AU, and the consequences for exporters?



Trembling Hand said:


> point being? .....you expect jobs to be created before any recovery starts?




If you look at the figures within the figures, I would like to actually see some sort of genuine job creation, not just a lower level of job destruction due to government subsidised job creation. The underemployed rate is still 17% - the US is still in a depression - the focus is now on prime loans going sour, ie the second dip down is imminent?

As for the XAO, a big pffft this morning so far after the US window dressing effort. Come on fellas, you can do better than that 

If P/E ratio's are your thing, then looks like getting back to trend, perhaps even overbought already. Or maybe Mr Market is factoring in Mr Rudds 4%+ growth rates to bump up the E part, _going forward_


----------



## surfziggy (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm going to let someone else do the heavy lifting. The yanks are properly back from holidays this week. I reckon we'll see some direction then.


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Down to 4420, then a clear run to 4800, that's how I see it.


----------



## Sean K (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> Down to 4420, then a clear run to 4800, that's how I see it.



We like to see analysis and substance to the calls here. Feel free to post some analysis.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> Geez our market is still bullish.The dow in which we follow has had thin volume and scarey to think most people on wall street are trading the big four failed banks(freddie mac/citigroup/bank of america & fannie mae).As to add we all think the month of september traditionally trades downwards,further note when i see the goverment spining up we are out of a recession with still high unemployment and impending higher interest rates on the horizon i get nervous.
> Well maybe im just a bear deep down,After Humphrey b bear was axed from channel nine i havn't been the samesorry just some light humour).




In through the back door.....spooky......


> My best guess? We’re seeing a massive infusion of capital into very troubled financial institutions, no doubt aided by short covering and the participation of program traders and proprietary daytrading firms. Where is the capital coming from? Why has it poured in so suddenly (the really large infusions began in early August)? Why is it coming in at such a pace that it is dominating NYSE volume? Zero Hedge rightly wonders why this hasn’t triggered alarms at the exchange. And why is it happening with only the weakest financial institutions?
> If you were the government and you saw that these institutions were on the verge of a major fail, with billions of taxpayer dollars at risk, I’m not sure you’d announce that to the world. Nor, at this point politically, could you ask for yet another bailout package. But you would only pour money into those stocks at a frantic pace (capable of detection) if you perceived a dire need for the capital.
> I’m not inclined toward conspiracy theories, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this is not a (frighteningly necessary) coordinated capital infusion, with taxpayer dollars ultimately at work in financial markets.


----------



## MrBurns (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From Crikey, something's got to give surely.



> US unemployment a social powder keg
> Glenn Dyer writes:
> 
> Yes, Friday night's employment figures were better than expected: just 216,000 jobs went last month and the unemployment rate rose to 9.7% because more people went looking for work, a sign of increasing confidence among the unemployed.
> ...


----------



## swm79 (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> point being? .....you expect jobs to be created before any recovery starts?




i'd like to see the job losses stop at least. unemployment is now at 9.7%! 

the market is factoring in a decline in the number of job losses as meaning a slowing of the rate of losses which it believes to mean it will eventually stop.

because of that its not factoring in what the job losses are creating - a lack of production capacity.

Add to that the fact that the number of people now working part time or less hours than they usually would and what have we got? 

a hugely under-employed country who is STILL losing jobs at a phenominal rate.

how many people are going to the welfare office and cashing dole cheques?

And they're STILL rolling out the stimulus and printing MORE money.

granted the unemployment data is the laggingest of the lagging indicators... but its as though the market hears the figures and ignores them!

check out what's happened to gold in the last week - thats got to tell you something... and if it isnt why isnt oil or industrial metals outperforming it???


----------



## swm79 (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I suppose the question the stock market is asking is: 'is this as bad as it gets?'
> 
> If so, then it's a potential near term bottom. Buy, buy, buy!
> 
> Or, unemployment goes to 50% and nothing is factored in.




i think thats why at the moment the market is hovering in a "wait and see" pattern... if we dont see *REAL* positive data coming out those FY11 guidance figures the market is pricing in (not the FY10!!!) are going to seem REAL thin!

i think this rally has been on the back of the herds fear of missing out.

TH - i know you love the "looks overbought, due for a XXXX etc etc"

but i just cant see reliable REAL bullish data.

with that said, i'm not 100% bear.... my holdings arent 0... but i'm only buying things i see with real potential in FY10 or PURE long term growth plays


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



swm79 said:


> check out what's happened to gold in the last week - thats got to tell you something... and if it isnt why isnt oil or industrial metals outperforming it???



Well the tin hat brigade will tell you this is the big one and the USD is about to COLLAPSE.

A more likely cause, IMHO, is risk money playing the "what has to catch up game".


----------



## swm79 (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Well the tin hat brigade will tell you this is the big one and the USD is about to COLLAPSE.
> 
> A more likely cause, IMHO, is risk money playing the "what has to catch up game".




i totally agree that the risk money is switching to laggards. you can see that in the BHP price on a slow decline after being overbought... as traders are realising that being underweight BHP isnt such a bad thing... given that to be overweight BHP you now need the size of a small countries economy.

Plus, you can buy BHP and RIO in the UK at a substantial discount to here... for the same companies.

USD will never collapse while countries like China and Japan have their donkey bonds!


----------



## white_goodman (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Well the tin hat brigade will tell you this is the big one and the USD is about to COLLAPSE.
> 
> A more likely cause, IMHO, is risk money playing the "what has to catch up game".




personally I cant see the USD collapsing in the medium term... would be catastrophic to world exporters, the world still needs the US till another consumer steps into its place


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Heres what I'm looking at. 

It's interesting, all this doom and gloom, everything pointing to a tank back to the march lows ANY day now....but theres just one thing? It isn't happening. Yet anyway. Seems things are being supported at this stage. I think its important to be trading the now. 

Would like to see a wide push up through the 4535 I have marked on strong volume, only thing that worries me now is the current volume, would have liked to see todays bar on stronger volume...but as I say, its still going up, despite how much negativity there is. Take what I say with a grain of salt though, still learning, thought I might as well keep this thread on track.

...more on my blog for those interested.(sig)


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> only thing that worries me now is the current volume, would have liked to see todays bar on stronger volume...but as I say, its still going up, despite how much negativity there is.




Today was always going to be low volume. Tomorrow the same.


----------



## beerwm (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Today was always going to be low volume. Tomorrow the same.




why do you say that?


----------



## white_goodman (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beerwm said:


> why do you say that?




labour day, bank holiday in US and Canada


----------



## GumbyLearner (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beerwm said:


> why do you say that?




US Labor Day


----------



## beerwm (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> labour day, bank holiday in US and Canada






GumbyLearner said:


> US Labor Day




ahh, thanks


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Today was always going to be low volume. Tomorrow the same.




I know, I think it still reveals intentions. Its a holiday in the US, yes. We are still trading here, I don't see it as any different. Still activity. Same as one can tell if the news will be bad or good before its out, volume is low, still reveals activity and intentions. 

But fair point, you are using the EA. I'm just TA


----------



## Broadway (7 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just for fun, SMI picked the last 3 corners - 18th low, 26th high, and 3rd low.

Ofcourse it will stop working now it's 'out there'..


----------



## Naked shorts (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> But fair point, you are using the EA. I'm just TA




Hahaha EA will be the buzzword of 2010. TH you _really _should write a book on the subject


----------



## surfziggy (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> I know, I think it still reveals intentions. Its a holiday in the US, yes. We are still trading here, I don't see it as any different. Still activity. Same as one can tell if the news will be bad or good before its out, volume is low, still reveals activity and intentions.
> 
> But fair point, you are using the EA. I'm just TA




I refer you to what happened over christmas. XJO went up 500 points and then back down 300 points when everyone came back. Moves on small volume don't mean as much. Not to say that they aren't tradeable though.


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> I know, I think it still reveals intentions. Its a holiday in the US, yes. We are still trading here, I don't see it as any different. Still activity. Same as one can tell if the news will be bad or good before its out, volume is low, still reveals activity and intentions.
> 
> But fair point, you are using the EA. I'm just TA




Interesting that today is shaping up to have reasonable volume, so far. There's plenty doing business at these levels. I would prefer a low volume day rather than high. 

I just don't know why people have a preference to high vol. Whats the precedent for such bias? My EA indicators says that's a fade signal


----------



## bowman (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I just don't know why people have a preference to high vol. Whats the precedent for such bias? My EA indicators says that's a fade signal




Speccy explorers and junior miners are gapping up all over the place.

Is that a fade signal too?


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bowman said:


> Speccy explorers and junior miners are gapping up all over the place.
> 
> Is that a fade signal too?




If you had any common sense maybe in relation to performance of XAO to other categories of assets. maybe not.


----------



## swm79 (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bowman said:


> Speccy explorers and junior miners are gapping up all over the place.
> 
> Is that a fade signal too?




depends what metals you're talking about though.


----------



## bowman (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> If you had any common sense maybe in relation to performance of XAO to other categories of assets. maybe not.






swm79 said:


> depends what metals you're talking about though.




Rare ones, and one's that glitter.


----------



## sammy84 (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Good day for the junior miners and property trusts. Reminds me of the march rally, when the big financials lead the first half of the rally, then miners and property trusts caught up for the last half. Hard not to be bullish


----------



## Naked shorts (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



swm79 said:


> depends what metals you're talking about though.





bowman said:


> Rare ones, and one's that glitter.




Well that clears it up, here I was thinking about this kind of metal.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I would prefer a low volume day rather than high.




For what? Would of thought you would prefer more activity with your trading style? 



Trembling Hand said:


> I just don't know why people have a preference to high vol. Whats the precedent for such bias? My EA indicators says that's a fade signal




Who has a preference for high volume? I only look for high volume in the right spots eg. confirming a move either way etc, not sure what you're meaning here, I certainly don't enter on high volume up moves like I was anticipating today etc. 

Anyway, wide spread up on _stronger_ volume today is indeed what we got, exactly what I was looking for from my last post, yesterdays volume actually ended up being very good, slightly more than the day before, not too high not too low. 

...whether it can hold above 4535 we are yet to see, depending on how much higher if at all it goes today, we may see a test back to the 4535 level, which would be a decent entry. Anyway, enough from me, you're probably all sick of death of me in here haha


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

"we may see a test back to the 4535 level"

Do you mean 4435..?


----------



## nunthewiser (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Anyway, enough from me, you're probably all sick of death of me in here haha





nope 

your opinions just as valid as anyone elses here


----------



## wayneL (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> "we may see a test back to the 4535 level"
> 
> Do you mean 4435..?




I thought he meant 3545.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (8 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> "we may see a test back to the 4535 level"
> 
> Do you mean 4435..?




No I mean 4535, it depends if we hold above it or not, usually when you see a breakout into new highs, on stronger volume, it usually tests the downside, depending on how bullish it is,  so hence why I said depends how much further up we go on todays bar, if at all, so say if it pushed up to 4560, just as an example, ideally I would then watch for it to test the downside(the breakout from 4535). etc etc. dunno if I'm making sense? we may see a test anyway, but I would like to see the test above 4535, the high of the high volume day(2nd Sep). time will tell  

thanks nun


----------



## RayG (11 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> No I mean 4535, it depends if we hold above it or not, usually when you see a breakout into new highs, on stronger volume, it usually tests the downside, depending on how bullish it is,  so hence why I said depends how much further up we go on todays bar, if at all, so say if it pushed up to 4560, just as an example, ideally I would then watch for it to test the downside(the breakout from 4535). etc etc. dunno if I'm making sense? we may see a test anyway, but I would like to see the test above 4535, the high of the high volume day(2nd Sep). time will tell
> 
> thanks nun





Holding above that 4535 level nicely at present, does that mean we may see a test of last years support at around 5000 in the next few weeks?  

I don't think I can put it any simpler than the attached chart.

On a side note, 4600 as I recall was wheepo's exit point, so I guess his views and strategy are now well and truly vindicated. 

Regards
Ray


----------



## Broadway (13 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oil down nearly $4 on Friday night.
That's gotta hurt the xao early this week.
Anyone brave enough to be short?


----------



## Nyden (13 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Oil down nearly $4 on Friday night.
> That's gotta hurt the xao early this week.
> Anyone brave enough to be short?




Why would that hurt the xao? We're not Saudi Arabia. Futures are pointing to a measly couple of points down. Funny how every little event must mean we're headed for a tumble, eh?


----------



## Broadway (14 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Enough of a slide for one morning.
We might be heading back up now for a while.
Interesting to see what mood the hsi is in.


----------



## Sunder (14 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Enough of a slide for one morning.
> We might be heading back up now for a while.
> Interesting to see what mood the hsi is in.




Market disagrees - decided to sink another 15 points shortly after you posted that. :


----------



## moXJO (14 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Enough of a slide for one morning.
> We might be heading back up now for a while.
> Interesting to see what mood the hsi is in.




You trading the spi and catch the move?


----------



## Timmy (14 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Market disagrees - decided to sink another 15 points shortly after you posted that. :




Pretty easy picking off people in hindsight, eh?


----------



## Broadway (14 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Market disagrees - decided to sink another 15 points shortly after you posted that. :




Ya, stopped on that one. Called the lod too early.


----------



## skyQuake (14 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Haha those robots on WPL squeezed the crap out of the shorters. Oil down 3%? Who cares!


----------



## nunthewiser (15 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

anyone short ?


----------



## Broadway (15 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> anyone short ?




Hey nun,

I think theres more chance to go down than up. ES now around 1042/3.

Last night some volume on the peak of SMH.(plus other etfs). Makes me bearish for the next 24-48 hours.

Problem is there was alot of volume in today's asia lod, and the way yesterday's dip in the ES got pushed straight back up to 1040 was inspiring for bulls.

So im bearish but not stubborn about it.
Good luck.


----------



## nunthewiser (15 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Hey nun,
> 
> I think theres more chance to go down than up. ES now around 1042/3.
> 
> ...





cheers for that 

im currently in 2 ASX short positions entered today but BOTH on guarenteed stops just in case i get gapped overnight .

same re bearish but willing to flip at any given mo .....

Not actually trading tonight as the bourbon seemed to hold more of a attraction at the mo


----------



## RayG (15 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> anyone short ?




Taking profits today, I'm not really bearish, just expecting the long awaited correction is imminent, and getting myself positioned to buy when the opportunity comes along.

Still bullish longer term.  

Regards
Ray


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> Taking profits today, I'm not really bearish, just expecting the long awaited correction is imminent, and getting myself positioned to buy when the opportunity comes along.
> 
> Still bullish longer term.
> 
> ...




Why are you bullish long term mate?
What is long term, 20 years?
Apart from coal, gas, oil and uranium this market imho is headed for lows of the century.

gg


----------



## white_goodman (15 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Why are you bullish long term mate?
> What is long term, 20 years?
> Apart from coal, gas, oil and uranium this market imho is headed for lows of the century.
> 
> gg




just waiting for stimulus to stop or a couple of bad audits to filter thru atm


----------



## RayG (15 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Why are you bullish long term mate?
> What is long term, 20 years?
> Apart from coal, gas, oil and uranium this market imho is headed for lows of the century.
> 
> gg




Hi GG, 

You forgot Iron.  

My timeframe is more investing rather than trading,  I just dabble a bit really. 
So I see Australia as being well positioned over the next few years, particularly the resources you already mentioned.   

Regards
Ray


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> Hi GG,
> 
> You forgot Iron.
> 
> ...




I actually reckon Iron will fall in value. The Chinese are accumulating and many will sell for the lowest price just to keep cash flow.

I'm no funnymentalist though.

Just going on what I read in Ralph.

gg


----------



## Sean K (15 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> just waiting for stimulus to stop



There will probably just be another stimulus if things go pear again.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> There will probably just be another stimulus if things go pear again.





Ever tried to stimulate a pear when its falling to go back up on the tree?

gg


----------



## enigmatic (16 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry I don't actually have an updated chart for today but, I finally became bullish the XAO broke through the 250week moving average.
The chart has the 150dMVA and 250dMVA as you can see by both of them there heading upwards now.


----------



## Emjai (16 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey Everyone, 

Looking at the XAO Weekly chart -which is important. Use the weekly chart to see where the bigger pitcher.

You can see in the pitcher below that we broke the last two resistance levels and it looks like it is running to the next resistance level which also happen to be the 50% from the entire move down.

Question: Will we go straight up there with out a pull back
Answer.. No one knows, but if you can have the bigger picture in focus when your trading the daily chart then you have a much better chance of making a profitable trade. 

Anyway--Hope you enjoy the post 

Talk later

Emjai

 All information presented is for educational purposes and is based on historical data only. We simply discuss and analyze charting patterns and techical indicators. The information should never be construed as provision of financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell any securities or derivatives. Before doing so, you should seek independent advice from your financial planner or advisor.


----------



## Dark1975 (17 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Reguardless of the different views we have on the xao,Speculation on Dow will give us a better understanding on which direction we are heading!I mean the old quote still applies"*When America sneezes,the world catches a cold"*.
I mean some people may disagree but we virutally mirror image the dow as of recent.So was hoping if we could have more analysis on the dow?Or is there a dow thread in place?Anyway for the future direction and a better understanding on the xao,We should consider the future direction of the dow!


----------



## gfresh (17 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



cutz said:


> Yeah i lost my nerve and sold off 25% of my holdings this week and late last week, surely this rally is getting overcooked.




That's what we/people were saying last week, and the week before, and the month before, and ... 

The only trouble with trying to picking the top (esp if it's only a minor top), is you have to be pretty damn close, at exit, and re-entry. Sell and it goes up another 5%, and it's got to come down at least 5% before you are any better off. 

Then you'd be tempted to wait "oh it needs to comes down another 10% from here for it to be decent value". Then it may only come down 8%, by the time it turns and goes up again. Then you may be convinced it's just a false break, but by the time you realise it's not, you're probably back at the 0% mark, and may have well have just held without fluffing around


----------



## Joe Blow (18 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just removed about 30 off topic posts from this thread.

If you have any XAO analysis then feel free to post it. If you would like to talk about something else then please take it to another thread.


----------



## nunthewiser (18 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

1st target 4596

2nd target 4497 

PERSONAL OPINION ONLY

probably wrong , often am

take from it what you wish


----------



## IFocus (18 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> 1st target 4596
> 
> 2nd target 4497
> 
> ...




Nun why do you project those targets?

Using the words think, feel, etc wont cut it


----------



## nunthewiser (18 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Nun why do you project those targets?
> 
> Using the words think, feel, etc wont cut it




MY percieved pivot points as in MY percieved support bounce areas

them targets quoted are all give or take 10 points

i did point out yesterday that yesterday was the high for the short term but that post was removed as it was amongst a BHP chart and trade reply i gave

like i said .could be wrong


----------



## nunthewiser (18 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Nun why do you project those targets?
> 
> Using the words think, feel, etc wont cut it




you have a different view m8 ?


----------



## cutz (18 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not XAO specific but impacts nevertheless.

Any theories on the large gap up closing of three of the big four accompanied by large volumes.

Portfolio rejigging maybe.


----------



## Whiskers (18 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm not sure what the numbers will be, but based on the psychology or more specifically the changing sociology of the Asian community in particular... whereas it's traditionally been the case of ' when the USA sneezes, we catch a cold'... I'm expecting that paradym is gradually changing to when China sneezes...

I think we need to wait to see how the gov's follow up on all these stimulus packages... ie to see how people perceive them and what sort of financial strategy people adopt, eg more saver and lower debt or continue unabated with low savings and high debt.

But having said that I can't imagine the major gov's letting up on their committment to kneejerk the economy out of recession. As many economists are now expecting inflationary pressure to kick in, the trick will be how well they can tame inflation and follow through on all those regulatory improvements, particularly in the US, that seem to be now fading in urgency as the worst 'appears' to be over.

The bottom line... I'm going with the notion that people are starting to feel more assured that the US in particular is starting to focus more on domestic social issues than the previous obsession with the Iraq war and when people feel more secure about their social sircumstances, eg some basic public health and welfare systems, they will tend to be less concerned with their financial burden to cover these types of economic expenses themselves and carry on normal daily business. That being the case no more major shake-outs as before on 'asleep-at-the-wheel' GWB's shift.


----------



## nunthewiser (18 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

my posts re the XAO are merely my thoughts for the next few trade sessions ie next week to reach targets .NOTHING more ..


----------



## Chris45 (19 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nun, your last analysis was spot on and I bought you an e-beer but it was deleted. Congrats anyway.


----------



## RayG (19 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Joe Blow said:


> Just removed about 30 off topic posts from this thread.




Now there's an offer I can't refuse.  

Mr Burns choosing to buy big 4 Banks over a new car, is XAO analysis at it's most perceptive, and, what's more easier to understand than EW  

Regards
Ray


----------



## MrBurns (19 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> Now there's an offer I can't refuse.
> 
> Mr Burns choosing to buy big 4 Banks over a new car, is XAO analysis at it's most perceptive, and, what's more easier to understand than EW
> 
> ...




The shares have gone up $1000, the same money in the bank would have earned $18

Im not looking at the price again for 5 years

Seriously, I know the market's inflated a bit but I dont see any disasters on the horizon for a few more years yet when all this borrowing comes home to roost.

The markets come up 50% above it's lows but it's still 50% down on it's high so I figured it was a reasonable bet and I'm not trading, it's for a longer term.


----------



## IFocus (19 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> you have a different view m8 ?




No I don't have any targets currently only that the trend is up supported by rising volume, waiting to see if the move up will validate or invalidate the EW wave 4 scenario.

 I don't care if it confirms or not (I do follow EW but expecting it to work more than 50% to me defies market common sense) but being an index I would expect it to show a reasonable compliance to a pattern or two.

So still long everything until the trend goes down.  

Attached the Weekly interestingly it makes no difference whether semi log or linear this move up has been very sharp.

.


----------



## nunthewiser (19 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> So still long everything until the trend goes down.
> 
> Attached the Weekly interestingly it makes no difference whether semi log or linear this move up has been very sharp.
> 
> .





yep i have no reasons to exit any longs   except normal individual trailing stops/stoplosses.

my thoughts posted only looking at short term basis for next week , finding it hard too look much further currently 


thanks for your thoughts


----------



## clayton4115 (19 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

my analysis states we should reach 5000 quite freely.


----------



## Chris45 (20 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



clayton4115 said:


> my analysis states we should reach 5000 quite freely.



Don't suppose you'd be prepared to detail that for us would you?


----------



## clayton4115 (20 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well just going on with whats being said here and looking at the charts, we should get to 5000, (4950-5000) but i think we would see a pause at this level or even some retracement.


----------



## panikhide (21 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> Don't suppose you'd be prepared to detail that for us would you?




What he means is, would you explain the analysis behind your opinion that we are going to move to 5000 'freely'.


----------



## nikemi (21 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> yep i have no reasons to exit any longs   except normal individual trailing stops/stoplosses.
> 
> my thoughts posted only looking at short term basis for next week , finding it hard too look much further currently
> 
> ...




Some one said once that T/A is like weather forecasting the further you go in the future the less chance you have in making a correct prediction using it. It is most accurate on smaller timeframes. Makes sense i guess!


----------



## Sean K (21 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



clayton4115 said:


> my analysis states we should reach 5000 quite freely.



So, when do we get to see any of your analysis clayton?

Maybe I've missed it, but thus far all I've seen is HC.

Looking forward to you sharing.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (21 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Originally Posted by *clayton4115*
> 
> 
> _my analysis states we should reach 5000 quite freely._




Why not 7000 on the same parabolic trend?

I am noticing some hefty 'at market' selling taking out some decent sized bid orders lately, with thin sell orders on the depth, ie sellers are not putting their sell orders into the Q, but selling straight into the bid?? Is that normal? Are the insto's selling to the sheeples in lemming mode?


----------



## Whiskers (21 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The selling  seems to be more resource based atm... as the POG fell under 1,000.

Closing rally???


----------



## clayton4115 (21 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well ive got considerable amount of $$$ on the market at the moment, looking at the market like a hawke, getting ready to press the SELL button!

looks like we paused today, market seems indecisive which way to go, this week on the Dow Jones is a big week for news events.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (21 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> The selling  seems to be more resource based atm... as the POG fell under 1,000.
> 
> Closing rally???




As an example, I watch JBH closely, and there were bids sitting in the Q of up to 20k, filling several levels down the bid side, and very light Ask side volume in the order of 100's, yet the bids were completely taken out in waves of 'at market' selling, tanking the SP.

And as Clayton say's, there must be a lot of punters with itchy sell trigger fingers just waiting to cut & run at the first sign of a genuine sell off?

I'm sort of thinking the big boys are still pumping (the media) while they are dumping?


----------



## clayton4115 (21 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm sort of thinking the big boys are still pumping (the media) while they are dumping?

LOL

yeah depending on what the US closes overnight, i will make my decision tomorrow, im getting a little nervous, may close out 80% of the portfolio.


----------



## johnnyg (21 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tiny Volumes on alot of stocks today. Any ideas?


----------



## Dark1975 (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



clayton4115 said:


> I'm sort of thinking the big boys are still pumping (the media) while they are dumping?
> 
> LOL
> 
> yeah depending on what the US closes overnight, i will make my decision tomorrow, im getting a little nervous, may close out 80% of the portfolio.




Well sold 100% of my portfolio on thursday(Well like k.Rogers you got to know when to fold'em.)
But personally on a stochastic view/RSI & even on EW(Approaching last wave)seems we are near the top.From now on in,I'm only on cfd's on a daily basis,Until i see a minor correction.
Well at the moment the  dow is -78points down,Let's see how it plays out!And if so maybe the bears might have started coming out of there caves? I know i have!  
Anyway i have the view that the market is overbought on the short term view and we are either going to see a correction or a consolidation period for the final leg up to 5000 on the xao.My money is on the correction.Only time will tell


----------



## clayton4115 (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

spi down 14 not too bad


----------



## marketmania (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I've done a long term cycle analysis of Aord. Hope it helps. We are about to complete a 800 days cycle. Also two long term channels meet here. The 1987 crash too was arround that period!!!! the 2003-2007 rally was 800 x 2 days

"DO YOUR OWN HOME WORK. I JUST GIVE IDEAS"


Cheers


----------



## RayG (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> Well sold 100% of my portfolio on thursday(Well like k.Rogers you got to know when to fold'em.)
> But personally on a stochastic view/RSI & even on EW(Approaching last wave)seems we are near the top.From now on in,I'm only on cfd's on a daily basis,Until i see a minor correction.
> Well at the moment the  dow is -78points down,Let's see how it plays out!And if so maybe the bears might have started coming out of there caves? I know i have!
> Anyway i have the view that the market is overbought on the short term view and we are either going to see a correction or a consolidation period for the final leg up to 5000 on the xao.My money is on the correction.Only time will tell




My analysis is pretty much in line with your view, I also cashed out on thursday, for the reasons given earlier.  Now sitting on the sidelines (with many others I suspect) waiting for the long awaited pull-back.

The only question is how deep will the correction be, and when..

Regards
Ray


----------



## MrBurns (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> The only question is how deep will the correction be, and when..
> Regards
> Ray




Or if...........


----------



## Nyden (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> My analysis is pretty much in line with your view, I also cashed out on thursday, for the reasons given earlier.  Now sitting on the sidelines (with many others I suspect) waiting for the long awaited pull-back.
> 
> The only question is how deep will the correction be, and when..
> 
> ...




The arrogance meter is off the charts!

Just because you sold out, and just because your "analysis" indicates a pullback, the whole market has to correct deeply?

Why so dramatic with the sell button? Why not simply reduce your positions, instead of dumping them all? I'm just curious, as it sounds as though you had too much exposure to begin with, if any dips scare you that much.


----------



## Dark1975 (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> My analysis is pretty much in line with your view, I also cashed out on thursday, for the reasons given earlier.  Now sitting on the sidelines (with many others I suspect) waiting for the long awaited pull-back.
> 
> The only question is how deep will the correction be, and when..
> 
> ...




Im with you mate


----------



## johnnyg (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



johnnyg said:


> Tiny Volumes on alot of stocks today. Any ideas?




And again today, Lack of participation from O.S investors?


----------



## RayG (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> The arrogance meter is off the charts!
> 
> Just because you sold out, and just because your "analysis" indicates a pullback, the whole market has to correct deeply?
> 
> Why so dramatic with the sell button? Why not simply reduce your positions, instead of dumping them all? I'm just curious, as it sounds as though you had too much exposure to begin with, if any dips scare you that much.




Just got too nervous I guess..   the divergence between TA and fundamentals has to resolve itself sometime in the near future.  

It's not arrogant to take profits when appropriate.  (At least I hope not )

Regards
Ray


----------



## Nyden (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RayG said:


> Just got too nervous I guess..   the divergence between TA and fundamentals has to resolve itself sometime in the near future.
> 
> It's not arrogant to take profits when appropriate.  (At least I hope not )
> 
> ...




Of course not, in fact - it's prudent to do so, especially when feeling uncomfortable. However, it is arrogant to expect the market to conform to your thoughts, and feelings.


----------



## white_goodman (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Of course not, in fact - it's prudent to do so, especially when feeling uncomfortable. However, it is arrogant to expect the market to conform to your thoughts, and feelings.




on the flip side again, no-one ever lost money taking profits and it would be just as arrogant to start picking tops..


----------



## clayton4115 (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

yeah, there will always be another opportunity to enter the market and make more profits, but locking in profits is imperative, a lesson i learnt the hard way prior to the crash.


----------



## nomore4s (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



johnnyg said:


> Tiny Volumes on alot of stocks today. Any ideas?






johnnyg said:


> And again today, Lack of participation from O.S investors?




Why the concern? Just looks like low volume consolidation atm, no conviction in the selling anyway.


----------



## wayneL (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> on the flip side again, no-one ever lost money taking profits and it would be just as arrogant to start picking tops..




That depends on the size of the profits taken compared to the losses taken... but I guess that's obvious.

Hmmmmm maybe not so obvious to those who cut profits short and let their loser run (many).


----------



## nomore4s (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



clayton4115 said:


> yeah, there will always be another opportunity to enter the market and make more profits, but locking in profits is imperative, a lesson i learnt the hard way prior to the crash.




You don't have to sell out of your portfolio to lock in profits. 

Also wouldn't you need to evaluate each stock on an individual basis?


----------



## white_goodman (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wayneL said:


> That depends on the size of the profits taken compared to the losses taken... but I guess that's obvious.
> 
> Hmmmmm maybe not so obvious to those who cut profits short and let their loser run (many).



very true, should have put a disclaimer saying on the proviso you win 100% of the time or something ha


----------



## white_goodman (22 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here's a weekly article from SFO magazine...
http://www.sfomag.com/WeeklyColumns/Default.aspx


*Fear and Greed*

_By Charles Rotblut, CFA, Senior Market Analyst for Zacks.com_

The market is currently being driven by fear and greed. 

Fear is evident in the demand for treasuries. Last week’s auction of 30-year notes had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.92. According to Bloomberg, this was the highest the ratio has been since November 2007. (The bid-to-cover ratio measures the number of bids received against the number of bids accepted.)

Greed can be seen in the performance of major stock indices. Last Thursday, the Dow closed above 9,625 for the first time since Nov. 4, 2008. The S&P 500 is at an 11-month high. The Nasdaq continues to gain back lost ground.

Then there are other indicators. Many fund managers seem to be sitting on the sidelines. Gold has risen above $1,000. Signs of fear, right? 

Oil keeps rising above $70. The VIX is back at more normal levels. Signs of greed, right?

Making matters more complicated is volume. Trading activity stunk last week. It was light even when compared to recent standards. This means there is no conviction in the stock market’s movement.

If all of this has you befuddled, don’t worry, you’re not alone. While at the Chicago Board of Trade last week, I spoke with a fund manager who admitted to being baffled by the current market environment. His logic says to short the market, while his trading screen says to go long.

But Isn’t the Recovery Helping?

Right now you’re probably thinking, “Charles, I thought the economy is improving”. The U.S. is turning a corner. The ISM Manufacturing Index has risen for eight consecutive months. Employers are shedding fewer jobs. Housing is bouncing off of its bottom.

But, there are still many problems. Approximately one out of six Americans is either unemployed or involuntarily working a part-time job. Wages are stagnant. Foreclosures have remained above 300,000 for six consecutive months. Commercial real estate is deteriorating. Banks are continuing to fail, and credit remains tight.

In other words, we might be getting a recovery, but it’s a slow and painful one.

So, What Should You Do?

I’ve been calling for a prolonged trading range to form and I continue to think this will be the case. I just don’t know where the top will be. The Dow seemed to hit a brick wall at 9,600, though 10,000 may end up being the real line in the sand.

My bigger concern right now is that, over the short-term, just about any trade involves an elevated level of risk. This applies to both long and short positions. It also applies to a wide variety of assets, including stocks, bonds and commodities.

Therefore, you need to consider what your actual trading time horizon is. If you are looking for assets you can hold for a year or more, I would dollar-cost average. If you’re searching for assets to hold for only a few days, keep your stops really tight. If you’re like most investors, and just want a stock that won’t go down right after you buy it, invest with caution. I wouldn’t stay out of the market, but I wouldn’t put all of my money into it either. 

Ride the upward trend while you can, but understand that the market can stay irrational for longer than you can remain solvent. That’s fear and greed for you.


----------



## clayton4115 (23 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

hi nomore

i dont trade individual stocks, just the index.


----------



## lucifuge (23 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No offence, but this article actually ends up saying nothing. 




white_goodman said:


> Here's a weekly article from SFO magazine...
> http://www.sfomag.com/WeeklyColumns/Default.aspx
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## white_goodman (23 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



lucifuge said:


> No offence, but this article actually ends up saying nothing.




but by saying nothing, isnt that saying something?


----------



## Timmy (23 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> but by saying nothing, isnt that saying something?




You are so deep, White. 

Actually I thought the article's conclusion were pretty vacuous too.  But the author brought up some good, interesting points in getting there, which made the article worthwhile.


----------



## lucifuge (23 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> but by saying nothing, isnt that saying something?




Ok, I cracked up at this.


----------



## Dark1975 (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well my Cfd shorts are looking good for the morning!Just announced existing U.S home sales down 2.7% for august.Dow currently -66 pts down.If the dow can hold off in negative territory for the end of trade,Expect a interesting sell off day on friday for the xao!
Could be the start of the consoldation period or the start of something more sinister?Maybe a long awaited correction?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Seems to be some bears here.


----------



## Dark1975 (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Seems to be some bears here.




As my previous posts< Getting more bearish and id say a good entry point for gold atm.


----------



## Joe Blow (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just a reminder to all that this thread is for XAO Analysis. If you have some to contribute, please feel free to post it.

If you wish to discuss the economy in more general terms - or another topic altogether - then please take it to another thread.

Off topic posts will be removed.

Thank you for your co-operation.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO to be supported on the dips through to next Wednesday, ie end of qtr, then short season? 

Octoberfest for the bears


----------



## Nyden (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> XAO to be supported on the dips through to next Wednesday, ie end of qtr, then short season?
> 
> Octoberfest for the bears




Wait, wasn't September supposed to be short-season? August too, come to think of it; every month since March was supposed to be the beginning of the end.

I'm intrigued by your signature, as well. 


> juicing the present by mortgaging the future




I'm always curious as to what alternatives people who believe this, have? For arguments sake, let's say that is exactly just what's happening. So what? What would you have the world do instead? Sacrifice the present, for the future? Society isn't a human being, it's made up of them. Some are young, some are old. Allowing the present day to be ruined, could destroy the final years of many older people, as well as potentially crippling many younger people.

Yes, let us have a terrible depression of pain for the next 20 years, so that a generation that I may never even live to see, has prosperity.

Life is all about delaying the inevitable UF. Be it delaying death, environmental ruin, or even financial collapse. The future isn't even guaranteed, and although planning and foresight is always needed, it would be unfair for too many to base life on earth around generations that may not ever even exist.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Wait, wasn't September supposed to be short-season? August too, come to think of it; every month since March was supposed to be the beginning of the end.
> 
> I'm intrigued by your signature, as well.
> 
> ...





No doubt about this time though, the XAO/market is gonna tank severley in October


----------



## Sunder (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Uncle Festivus said:


> No doubt about this time though, the XAO/market is gonna tank severley in October




I thought there was no doubt about August 17, July 1, and June 15 either.


----------



## clayton4115 (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

market is showing all signs of an imminent correction!


----------



## nomore4s (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



clayton4115 said:


> market is showing all signs of an imminent correction!






And what signs are they?


----------



## MrBurns (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The big 4 are doing real well


----------



## nunthewiser (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> And what signs are they?






MrBurns said:


> The big 4 are doing real well





that one right there


----------



## Nyden (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> that one right there




I don't know, I'd say that claytons remark was an indication this rally had a ways more to go


----------



## MrBurns (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> that one right there




Ok so i'm not a share genius like you guys but I am up $5k after less than a week so I'm not complaining. Yes it will go back but the big 4 are a freeking monopoly so I cant see too much risk.


----------



## nunthewiser (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

was only kidding guys 

may the XAO hit 10,000 for mr burns and his banks 

have a great weekend


----------



## MrBurns (25 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> was only kidding guys
> 
> may the XAO hit 10,000 for mr burns and his banks
> 
> have a great weekend




Ohhh you....................


----------



## Gordon Gekko (26 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From the analyst who discovered it:

“The very rare black swan formation – note both feet and neck are complete and the rare vampire tooth variation is in place.

Be afraid. Very, very afraid.”

black-swan-formation


----------



## Sean K (26 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> I don't know, I'd say that claytons remark was an indication this rally had a ways more to go



I'm not so sure. The analysis he has provided (as always) is pretty compelling.


----------



## clayton4115 (27 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'm not so sure. The analysis he has provided (as always) is pretty compelling.




LOL


----------



## Dark1975 (1 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Traders getting cautious,The market has made great gains since march,Now the dow getting a little bearish,considering high employment still increasing slighty and now its reflecting on consumer spending.
Now im actually only trading at a daily basis for q4 on cfd & options only,For the reason that the xao could actually shape up into a W,Reguardless people following Ew/gann/fab will tell have a different technical view.


----------



## surfziggy (1 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

Jobless claims announcement tonight and Non-Farm payrolls on Friday. I think the reaction to these sets the tone for what happens next.

There seems to be a lot of talk of people waiting for a pullback to get in. But on the flipside we appear to be (and according to the perma-bears) at a potential turning point. Given that the last few bearish patterns have failed what's to say that we won't;

1) Just melt higher into the end of the year
2) Go straight up from here again

My guess is that because everyone is expecting a major pullback, it probably won't happen.

In reaction to previous comments 'the market is so overbought' blah blah, PE's are too high. So what? when did a stock market run on logic?

I'd be really interested to hear what Trembling Hand has to say. He's been spot on with the last couple of calls he made.

Also note that some people were talking about oil decoupling at the start of the week. Well look today it still is, but I'd say not in the direction people were thinking, it's back over $70 today. 

BTW holding a long GBP.AUD position, oil and in and out of SPI.


----------



## RayG (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'm not so sure. The analysis he has provided (as always) is pretty compelling.




I'm a bit fan of clayton's analysis, I use it all the time...  

Is anyone else thinking that the intra-day high on Tuesday might have been the top?


----------



## Dark1975 (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well adding to my previous posts,Currently looking at the dow,There going to be a major sell-off on the xao on friday.Im glad im finally in a 100% cash position.The momentum is changing now,Well time to slip in to my bear suit.I've concluded that in the short-term frame there could be a major pull-back.


----------



## jonojpsg (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Indeed, I just had to short CBA day before yesterday around $52 - there was no way it could be justified IMO.  Switched my super all to cash about a month ago and watched XAO jump another 6% but just starting to think now that could be wiped out pretty quick if sentiment turns - guess that's really the big thing, SENTIMENT, as it's all about the psychology of the players.


----------



## Nyden (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just noticed the last few comments removed, and I can understand why - as they were mostly banter, as opposed to analysis. *However* - perhaps the rules should be relaxed on that? I would deem certain commentary as a form of data, a form of quite useful data. The thoughts, and opinions of those that are obviously just gambling in the market, may be useful to gauge the sentiment of the average investor. 

After all, part of the reason I bought in when I did, was purely based on the extremely bearish sentiment in news articles, and the comments in this very thread ("ready for new lows", ha, good as gold). This thread has acted as something of a petri dish of sentiment, and it's something that I, at least - value. Perhaps I'm alone there though :


----------



## Sean K (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Will be interesting so see how the minor support line goes.

If defeated (probable) then I'm looking for support between those big blue lines. Haven't got an uptrend line to doodle yet.


----------



## nunthewiser (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Nyden said:


> Just noticed the last few comments removed, and I can understand why - as they were mostly banter, as opposed to analysis. *However* - perhaps the rules should be relaxed on that? I would deem certain commentary as a form of data, a form of quite useful data. The thoughts, and opinions of those that are obviously just gambling in the market, may be useful to gauge the sentiment of the average investor.
> 
> After all, part of the reason I bought in when I did, was purely based on the extremely bearish sentiment in news articles, and the comments in this very thread ("ready for new lows", ha, good as gold). This thread has acted as something of a petri dish of sentiment, and it's something that I, at least - value. Perhaps I'm alone there though :




isnt this just banter ? shouldnt tjis be removed also?

 by the way if one scrolls back and looks at my targets given one may see i also provided a chart , reasons , and numbers ..............you got any ?


----------



## nunthewiser (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

also would like to point out that the high i gave was only minor points out of the actual high and my target fall was only 2 points off the target given 

it was however a week out  

is this "gambling " also? , or was is it analysis that was pretty close to what actually has happened ?

anyways .............. as you were


----------



## Dark1975 (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well the two key resistance levels on the xao are 4524 and next would be 4278.And if we see the dow fall again tonight to the same levels,Well monday these resistance levels will be surely tested.Well i guess we will see if the bulls are still in control?Either consolidation period?Or correction?Major correction?
Well for the short term term id say a correction is going to take place on the xao only to one major factor is that we still rely on the dow(people will have different views).I've seen people say on previous posts we have decoupled from the U.S....lol.We are following the dow as a mirror.As the dow is looking like a cooked chook atm,the xao will follow!


----------



## clayton4115 (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

definately looking very bearish, market fallen 2% and no sign of an intraday recovery, i think we will pass the support at 4540 easily on the way down.


----------



## skyQuake (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Light volume day, prob selling into long wkend its less of a fall rather than getting back into line with the other world indices.


----------



## Sean K (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Over the past few months, just about every drop has been bought up.

Who knows if this was technical buying, or fundamental buying, or just because the amount of cash being pumped in by the CBs needed to find a home.

What will probably happen though, is that current administrations will probably pump more money in if there is another capitulation. 

More money that needs to find a home. Where will it go? 

Too early to be calling in the four horseman again I think. 

I am with Marc Faber. 

A few years from now, make sure you have a decent bunker.


----------



## nunthewiser (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

rather funny here on red days tho 

all the bears come out in force ...... guys its hardly a crash yet , i think most of the ACTUAL traders here would be of a mind to stick to there trailing stops on there individual holds rather than dump everything cos the market fell 100 points 

but hey i could be wrong and because its a red day ALL plans go out the window for some


----------



## Chris45 (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> by the way if one scrolls back and looks at my targets given one may see i also provided a chart , reasons , and numbers ..............you got any ?






nunthewiser said:


> also would like to point out that the high i gave was only minor points out of the actual high and my target fall was only 2 points off the target given it was however a week out



Could you post a link to, or the number of, that post? I can only find #7551 which gives some targets and a chart but no reasons or analysis unless you call "PERSONAL OPINION ONLY" a reason.


----------



## prawn_86 (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*Puts mod hat on*

As an impartial mod that does not post on this thread lets keep it on the topic of *XAO Analysis.*

That is, analysis that can be used to trade the XAO specifically. This is not a thread where you post info about buying and selling certain stocks, or talk about the economy in general.

Thanks

Prawn


----------



## Chris45 (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



prawn_86 said:


> As an impartial mod that does not post on this thread lets keep it on the topic of *XAO Analysis.*
> 
> That is, analysis that can be used to trade the XAO specifically.



*Yes!* Can we please have some *analysis*, not just the mystical plucking of numbers out of the air (unless that's what passes for analysis here).

Charts with analysis tools shown, plus explanations, would be great (eg as in kennas' post #7622).

Analysis = An investigation of the component parts of a whole and their relations in making up the whole.


----------



## prawn_86 (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just one final point:

It is fine to have an opinion (after all no-one can be certtain) but that opinion should be backed up with reasons as to why you think it is so rather than just saying its only your opinion.

_Tell us why it is your opinion, as opposed to just stating it._

Thanks

Prawn


----------



## nunthewiser (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> 1st target 4596
> 
> 2nd target 4497
> 
> ...






nunthewiser said:


> MY percieved pivot points as in MY percieved support bounce areas
> 
> them targets quoted are all give or take 10 points
> 
> i






Chris45 said:


> *Yes!* Can we please have some *analysis*, not just the mystical plucking of numbers out of the air (unless that's what passes for analysis here).
> 
> .





i gave my reasons for my "mystical numbers" 

it was analysis of what i could see from my chart

i apologise for not knowing how to  add lines or circles to my  chart at time , but i posted my thoughts in words instead

probably would help if ppl scrolled back before attacking or penalizing my posts


----------



## Timmy (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Put my mod hat on.  

Have to take off the tinfoil hat first ... there.

OK - let's move on NOW.


----------



## skc (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The sea of red makes me feel like having a red, even though it's only 2 in the afternoon. Can't see any afternoon rally given the long weekend and the non-farm payroll numbers tonight. I think I will put on a stop sell entry hedge on the index for my positions.



Timmy said:


> Put my mod hat on.
> 
> Have to take off the tinfoil hat first ... there.
> 
> OK - let's move on NOW.




How cute! a little cat with a tin hat on.


----------



## skyQuake (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> The sea of red makes me feel like having a red, even though it's only 2 in the afternoon. Can't see any afternoon rally given the long weekend and the non-farm payroll numbers tonight. I think I will put on a stop sell entry hedge on the index for my positions.
> 
> 
> 
> How cute! a little cat with a tin hat on.




Says the dog in a bear suit


----------



## skc (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Says the dog in a bear suit




I am more like a bear wearing a dog suit trading long because I am "trend following".

Dog suit is trendy, isn't it?


----------



## Chris45 (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Will be interesting so see how the minor support line goes. If defeated (probable) then I'm looking for support between those big blue lines.



Kennas, are your lines based on the bodies of the candlesticks or the highs and lows? The first (4650) and the third (4278) looks like the lows but how did you get the second at 4520?


----------



## Chris45 (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> i gave my reasons for my "mystical numbers" it was analysis of what i could see from my chart. i apologise for not knowing how to  add lines or circles to my  chart at time , but i posted my thoughts in words instead. probably would help if ppl scrolled back before attacking or penalizing my posts



I've sent a PM to nunthewiser in an attempt to smooth this. Hoping for a reply. Sorry if it came across as a hostile post. Happy trading everyone.


----------



## Donga (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



clayton4115 said:


> Ftse down nearly 1% and Dow SPI down 39 points, bearish momentum increasing!




You may be right about about a few days of bear back slapping, but IMHO not on the basis of your post. FTSE down nearly 1% is half our fall today and if Dow is constrained to anything less than 50 points tonight, you would think the correction will be minor. The overall recovery is well underway even if a little slower in the US. We have to expect a few days breather every now and then on the way back to 5000


----------



## nomore4s (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> I have been doing some research into other periods were the Aussie stock market has suffered major crashes and due to the XAO's limited history the best one to compare this current one too is the 1987 crash.






nomore4s said:


> Updated charts - playing the game so far.






nomore4s said:


> Update on my theory, lol.
> 
> This rally looks to be on it's last legs now but I'm expecting another test of the high of this rally or maybe even a probe slightly higher. A lower high and lower low is obviously the next sign to look for.
> 
> Some divergence showing up too (2nd chart).




As we look like we are approaching(or maybe reached) the top of this rally I thought I would update my chart and analysis.

It has played out nearly spot on so far - talk about fluking it. But now comes the interesting part. While I still favour it playing out as per my original analysis there is a chance we could just consolidate above 4300 for a couple of months before pushing higher.


----------



## nomore4s (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Now breaking it down to a daily chart.

This is the pattern I currently think could play out.

A test of support at 4500ish a quick rally to test 4700ish and fill the gap and then down she goes before finally making a lower high.

The lower high will be the key indicator of the start of the next decent move down imo. But like I said in my post above there is the possibility that support at 4200-4300 becomes the base that we consolidate at and we don't retest 3700 but I do favour a retest of 3700 but it is pure speculation at this stage.


----------



## RayG (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Now breaking it down to a daily chart.
> 
> This is the pattern I currently think could play out.
> 
> ...





Nice analysis nomore4s,  good to see your expected pattern finally emerging,  the interesting thing will be whether or not the 4200-4300 support holds.  

I note that dow futures are currently 100 points down, I think it's likely that the long anticipated correction is beginning.

Regards
Ray


----------



## Dark1975 (2 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well i forecasted this in previous posts of the downturn in momentum on the xao,I was 1 week early tho in my forecasts tho im happy im in a 100% cash portfolio,futures on the dow are at currently at 130 points down,Altho ppl will rush in to say it's to early,its been 4 months since large downturn in confidence(in terms of futures).
The U.S just announced a further 273 000 jobs lost,alot higher than than forecasted.Well if this plays out on the dow as a another sharp sell-off,The resistance of 4525 on the xao will be tested.Seems the w correction maybe in play now.Well when i get time will add in graphs on resistance lvls on dow/xao this weekend.Well it's time for the bears to come out of the caves it seems.


----------



## skyQuake (3 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And now everyone who shorted the bad figures has been sqeezed out. Dow is green, S&P is green. Lets see if it can stay that way or revert to pivot


----------



## Chris45 (3 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> As we look like we are approaching (or maybe reached) the top of this rally I thought I would update my chart and analysis.



I like your analysis and your comparison with the ’87 crash period and would like to add to it if I may. I’ve observed that since 1931 we seem to have been running approx. 20yr EW cycles from start of W1 of one cycle to the end of a significant bear market retracement of the entire index and the start of W1 of the next cycle. This may have something to do with our generations, I don’t know.

Aug-31 - Dec-52 = 21.3yrs (Bear market retracement: May-51, 139.3 - Dec-52, 92.6 = 33.5%)
Dec-52 - Sep-74 = 21.7yrs (Bear market retracement: Jan-70, 448.2 - Sep-74, 173.5 = 61.3%)
Sep-74 - Nov-92 = 18.2yrs (Bear market retracement: Sep-87, 2306.2 - Nov-87, 1149.2 = 50.2%)
Nov-92 - Mar-09 = 16.3yrs (Bear market retracement: Nov-07, 6873.2 - Mar-09, 3090.8 = 55.0%)

If there is some sort of a cycle here it could be that we will be chopping around for at least a couple of years, probably longer, before the next bull market takes off. Maybe up to your Oct’10 target zone, then down, and after that, who knows? Maybe a repeat of the ’70-’74 style correction.


----------



## professor_frink (3 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Now breaking it down to a daily chart.
> 
> This is the pattern I currently think could play out.
> 
> ...




thanks for your analysis nomore4s

Don't really have much of an opinion on how the market will move a few weeks out from now, but do have a slight upside bias on the US markets for the next week, and would expect our market to follow if that's the case. This could also fit in with your idea of a rally back to test the recent highs before any further selloff

2 things that stood out for me on a look at the s&p 500 this morning - we have made new 10 day lows within the context of an uptrend(simply defined by an ema), and have also made 4 consecutive lower closes.

results below of each pattern in recent times. First column is days out from the initial signal. Both suggest a slight edge in being long from here for the next week or so


----------



## Timmy (4 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Please note, we are VERY serious now about keeping this thread for analysis ONLY.  Please put posts not related to analysis (yes, like this one) into the banter thread (or somewhere else).

Thanks


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (5 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

4 hr chart shows possibility for an up day today, what do think..?


----------



## Dark1975 (7 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Possible scenario as a double top if 4761 holds out on the xao/otherwise then a leg up to 4964 on the xao


----------



## Timmy (8 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Very strong buying in the 'overnight' S&P500 futures (ES).  Moved up 4 points or so after the earnings announcement from Alcoa, but in the last 10 mins or so has moved up another 6-odd points.  These are big moves in the overnight ES at this time of day (not huge, but unusual enough to rate a mention).  Trying to see what I can find out about the move in the last 10 mins.


----------



## skyQuake (8 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Timmy said:


> Very strong buying in the 'overnight' S&P500 futures (ES).  Moved up 4 points or so after the earnings announcement from Alcoa, but in the last 10 mins or so has moved up another 6-odd points.  These are big moves in the overnight ES at this time of day (not huge, but unusual enough to rate a mention).  Trying to see what I can find out about the move in the last 10 mins.




imo alot of stops exploded, Blame aus employment figures  We're being watched as a world barometer.


----------



## Timmy (8 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> imo alot of stops exploded, Blame aus employment figures  We're being watched as a world barometer.




You might have said that in jest, but might be more accurate than you think?  

The surge in the ES came about 5 minutes after the Aus figures.  I think you are right about covering shorts.  From 1058.50 to just under 1064 in less than 30 seconds, on volume of about 6000-odd contracts.  For this time of day, that's big.  

Had a similar move a couple of months ago during earnings season, turned out to be short-covering as earning came in better than expected.  

BTW - posting this in this thread for its obvious implications for the Australian market.


----------



## skyQuake (8 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Timmy said:


> You might have said that in jest, but might be more accurate than you think?
> 
> The surge in the ES came about 5 minutes after the Aus figures.  I think you are right about covering shorts.  From 1058.50 to just under 1064 in less than 30 seconds, on volume of about 6000-odd contracts.  For this time of day, that's big.
> 
> ...




No jest at all, SPI popped up too when the data came out. I guess there was the moment of shock and figuring whether the data was dodgy because it was _too_ good. Maybe also unwinding of SPI/ES spread (judging by the aussie pop being faster than the SPI or ES pop)


----------



## surfziggy (9 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



surfziggy said:


> http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
> 
> Jobless claims announcement tonight and Non-Farm payrolls on Friday. I think the reaction to these sets the tone for what happens next.
> 
> ...




Well looks like #1 was right. Just another bearish pattern break down, the same as every other time this year


----------



## jono_oz (9 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> Well i forecasted this in previous posts of the downturn in momentum on the xao,I was 1 week early tho in my forecasts tho im happy im in a 100% cash portfolio,futures on the dow are at currently at 130 points down,Altho ppl will rush in to say it's to early,its been 4 months since large downturn in confidence(in terms of futures).
> The U.S just announced a further 273 000 jobs lost,alot higher than than forecasted.Well if this plays out on the dow as a another sharp sell-off,The resistance of 4525 on the xao will be tested.Seems the w correction maybe in play now.Well when i get time will add in graphs on resistance lvls on dow/xao this weekend.Well it's time for the bears to come out of the caves it seems.




100% cash - well I guess the interest rate rise will push that along a little  hehehe Well I can't talk actually - I was in the process of selling out. Just lucky that I had not gotten to far into it.


----------



## Out Too Soon (9 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> imo alot of stops exploded, Blame aus employment figures  We're being watched as a world barometer.




The tail that wags the dog!?!  Our interest rate rise was reported world wide  Does this mean the DOW is watching us for leadership  LOL 

PS: I admit to being unrealistically bullish & therefore my forecasts totally unreliable :


----------



## Dark1975 (9 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jono_oz said:


> 100% cash - well I guess the interest rate rise will push that along a little  hehehe Well I can't talk actually - I was in the process of selling out. Just lucky that I had not gotten to far into it.





Easy to sit on the sidelines,And correct people.So can you give my a graph or prediction on the next week's scenario's?So you think today's move on the xao is bullish?
In fact that post you pulled up of mine is a week old,Infact there has been no upward movement since that time,only a gap filled.If you actually read past posts you we realise that i still trade daily on cfd's,reguardless my porfolio is 100% in cash.


----------



## Dark1975 (12 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I guess it's fair to say looking currently at the dow futures,The start of the new leg up on the xao will start tomorrow.Time to ride the bulls for  the short-term.The indicator for the lead was tonight for me.


----------



## nomore4s (13 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Now breaking it down to a daily chart.
> 
> This is the pattern I currently think could play out.
> 
> ...




A quick update.

We've pushed up through the resistance line but it has been anything but convincing. I still favour a move to the downside or at least a decent consolidation period but with the US seemingly determined to move higher it will probably drag us higher. If we do see some weakness overseas it will be interesting to see how the markets here handle it.

I've also noticed a few resource stocks are starting to give me short signals or have short plays setting up.

We are certainly at an interesting juncture in the market.


----------



## Dark1975 (13 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> A quick update.
> 
> We've pushed up through the resistance line but it has been anything but convincing. I still favour a move to the downside or at least a decent consolidation period but with the US seemingly determined to move higher it will probably drag us higher. If we do see some weakness overseas it will be interesting to see how the markets here handle it.
> 
> ...




Nice analysis,I did share the same view as yours a few days ago(in a Double Top Scenario forming).Until the resistant line was broken.Altho the last few days with low volume trading would suggest a uncertain pause or consolidation period.
But with the xao following the dow,I assume we will go through the next leg up.Altho we will see the week ahead on wall street in waiting on the financial reports of the third-quarter on large caps(google/goldman/intell/IBM & BOA),To see if there was growth in revenue.
I'm sure they will show us the fabricated info,To rally the market higher?So the larger caps can recapitalize(brush the rest of the info under the mat).I'm sure if they asked people in Detroit with 30% unemployment how the economy was?We would get a more realistic outview!:


----------



## Dark1975 (13 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> A quick update.
> 
> We've pushed up through the resistance line but it has been anything but convincing. I still favour a move to the downside or at least a decent consolidation period but with the US seemingly determined to move higher it will probably drag us higher. If we do see some weakness overseas it will be interesting to see how the markets here handle it.
> 
> ...




Well mate after watching the late sell-offs on the dow and low volume trading in both xao and the dow,I'm now leaning more towards a consolidation or like your chart scenario of a Double top.Actually started placing short cfd's & options now.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (16 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is this as good as it gets? Please support your local market


----------



## Donga (17 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Charting... Festivus - what does the chart look like if the base year is 1998 or 2002, would either change the lines much? And in any case, what are the conclusions of the charts presented?


----------



## nomore4s (21 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm back leaning to the bullish side atm due to the continued strength in the market and I'm also seeing a few continuation patterns looking like they are close to breaking out.

There looks like a nice triangle forming on the XAO chart but it is sitting under resistance so it could break to the downside, if it was sitting above that resistance I would be extremely bullish.


----------



## Emjai (22 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey guys, 

I thought I would add my 2 cents with whats going on in the Aussie market.


----------



## Boggo (24 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Emjai said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> I thought I would add my 2 cents with whats going on in the Aussie market.




Similiar pattern of potential resistance on the weekly XJO.
Blue sky above 5200 perhaps ?

(click to expand)


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (24 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't think theres any doubt its going to act as resistance, it has respected that area twice in the past. We haven't exactly approached it with much push behind it, we have had a failed test on the daily XJO, and a weekly one that will be determined this week, may see a short term down move, but will watch for buying to come back in, no major signs of weakness just yet.


----------



## Sean K (25 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> I don't think theres any doubt its going to act as resistance, it has respected that area twice in the past. We haven't exactly approached it with much push behind it, we have had a failed test on the daily XJO, and a weekly one that will be determined this week, may see a short term down move, but will watch for buying to come back in, no major signs of weakness just yet.



Yep, this range looks daunting. Everyone will be looking at this area as a technical sell area and respond accordingly. Maybe.


----------



## GumbyLearner (25 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Yep, this range looks daunting. Everyone will be looking at this area as a technical sell area and respond accordingly. Maybe.




Have to agree 

But not on charts, more on events.

many outlets are reporting great returns  for the S&P 500 *with a reduced workforce.*

If that's a recovery then I must be JD Rockefeller himself!


----------



## enigmatic (25 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lower workforce and increase profits.. Nothing like a bit of Efficiency coming back into the Work place, I would say that is definitely a good base for a nice recovery. Well for those that are good at there job, may be a little longer for the rest of the country.

Still waiting for 2010-2011 before I will be happy once all those alt-a and Option adjustable Rates start reseting, we will either see a decline to lower then March or we will just keep chugging along.
I guess I'll just need to wait and see, Although it just peaked for the 2009-2010 period just waiting mid 2010 were the rest hit higher then 2008

Sorry for offtopic


----------



## Dark1975 (28 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well looking at currently at  the dow futures,Could this be a start in a down-turn or a simple correction,Well my personal opinion is this could be a start of a possible W forming.


----------



## sammy84 (29 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All the media is calling this current down move a pullback, the contrarian in me can't help but think that the pullback wont be as deep as expected as a result. 

For my nostradamus moment- market wont go much lower from here, somewhere around 4570, then a small bounce up, back down to support and then a head and shoulder continuation pattern similar to what we saw in june should play out. Or I'm wrong and I should have put in a bigger hedge


----------



## skyQuake (29 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Don't mean to sound doom and gloom but _everyone_ has been waiting for a pullback to buy for the last 3 months - thats why there was never a decent pullback.

Now that there is a pullback, this could go a hell of a long way longer than everyone expected.


----------



## lucifuge (29 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Don't mean to sound doom and gloom but _everyone_ has been waiting for a pullback to buy for the last 3 months - thats why there was never a decent pullback.
> 
> Now that there is a pullback, this could go a hell of a long way longer than everyone expected.




Have to agree with this.


----------



## sammy84 (29 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Don't mean to sound doom and gloom but _everyone_ has been waiting for a pullback to buy for the last 3 months - thats why there was never a decent pullback.
> 
> Now that there is a pullback, this could go a hell of a long way longer than everyone expected.




I think most of the sellers would have sold in the last two days in anticipation of a deep pullback. I couldn't imagine that anyone weak holders anticipating a pullback would be waiting for anymore confirmation to sell. I guess the only question is when will the buyers be happy to step back in again.

I'm still unhedged waiting for the possibility of more strength to return. If I'm right then this would help elavate me to semi-guru status...If i'm wrong then I'm just another faceless poster on an internet forum who seeks guru status 

Note: If we dive through the last pivot low (4557-4579) I retract all of above comments and may still be elevated to guru status at a later time


----------



## skyQuake (29 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> I think most of the sellers would have sold in the last two days in anticipation of a deep pullback. I couldn't imagine that anyone weak holders anticipating a pullback would be waiting for anymore confirmation to sell. I guess the only question is when will the buyers be happy to step back in again.
> 
> I'm still unhedged waiting for the possibility of more strength to return. If I'm right then this would help elavate me to semi-guru status...If i'm wrong then I'm just another faceless poster on an internet forum who seeks guru status
> 
> Note: If we dive through the last pivot low (4557-4579) I retract all of above comments and may still be elevated to guru status at a later time




Y'days Inflation figures were higher than expected, further affirming the need to raise rates. (maybe 50bp?) The AUD spiked up, but was sold off heavily afterwards, imo from offshore funds dumping Aus equities and unwinding from our 'risky' shores.

Theres been bank buying on EVERY pullback for the last few months. I would imagine a fair few instos would like to lock in some profits.


..Then again the buy bots could come in again and we'll see 5000 before end of the year


----------



## skc (29 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> ..Then again the buy bots could come in again and we'll see 5000 before end of the year




I think the geeks have programmed sell bots. They will take the market down with them for a month. Then guys like Goldman will switch their buy bots back on until the next quarterly earnings. They will then able to report better than expected earnings thanks to trading profits. They will receive their bonus, pay back government loans etc.

Rinse and repeat at next quarter.

Sammy... what are you when you are a semi guru? The gu or the ru?


----------



## sammy84 (29 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Sammy... what are you when you are a semi guru? The gu or the ru?




I don't mind the Ru, reminds me of the Roo, which was Wayne Carey's old nickname.


----------



## nomore4s (29 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> I'm back leaning to the bullish side atm due to the continued strength in the market and I'm also seeing a few continuation patterns looking like they are close to breaking out.
> 
> There looks like a nice triangle forming on the XAO chart but it is sitting under resistance so it could break to the downside, if it was sitting above that resistance I would be extremely bullish.




Well we broke to the downside which was always a chance while sitting under that resistance.

This now brings it into line with my longer term analysis/theory that I have dribbling about since about July. I will post an updated chart on Friday night as I won't have time tonight.

But just quickly, I do still favour a move back down to 3700ish but 4000-4100 might be enough (need to see more price action unfold). The immediate action will probably be a bounce of some sort in the next week or 2 to test the 4800 area and then down - 4500 will be the key support to be broken to see 4000-4100 tested imo.


----------



## Miro (29 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Could someone please paste a link or two on technical analysis of the S&P/ASX index? I want to read as much as I can before I decide what to do next - whether to sell or hedge against further declines.


----------



## skc (29 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> All the media is calling this current down move a pullback, the contrarian in me can't help but think that the pullback wont be as deep as expected as a result.
> 
> For my nostradamus moment- market wont go much lower from here, somewhere around 4570, then a small bounce up, back down to support and then a head and shoulder continuation pattern similar to what we saw in june should play out. Or I'm wrong and I should have put in a bigger hedge




The H&S pattern is one possibility. Whether it is continuation or reversal will only be revealed after it happens... regardless, the right shoulder offers good shorting imo.


----------



## nunthewiser (29 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> The H&S pattern is one possibility. Whether it is continuation or reversal will only be revealed after it happens... regardless, the right shoulder offers good shorting imo.





Yep Sireee , also offers a VERY nice low % loss ( risk /reward ratio as known more generally here) on stopout points if it turns out to be a continuation of current Bull trend.

Personally backing a minor bounce for the XAO for tommorow and today positioned accordingly with tight stops in case the current bearish momentum hits full steam ahaead.


----------



## nomore4s (31 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> As we look like we are approaching(or maybe reached) the top of this rally I thought I would update my chart and analysis.
> 
> It has played out nearly spot on so far - talk about fluking it. But now comes the interesting part. While I still favour it playing out as per my original analysis there is a chance we could just consolidate above 4300 for a couple of months before pushing higher.




Update.

I'm now looking for a move back towards 3700 - Major support above the lows but there is a chance we could end up only pulling back towards the top of the first rally from the bottom which is around 4000-4100 - this would also make the decline 3 waves instead of 5. I will be looking for signs from individual stocks around this area to decide on how I trade around that level. But I still favour a test of 3700 for a number of reasons.

I have also amended the target level for the next red rally to around the 4800-5400 area.

Will be interesting to see if this analysis continues to play out.


----------



## alter1217 (2 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You guys are all thinking it'll go down to 3700?? Holy ****.... 

I guess it looks like one of those bearish ascending wedges I read about on the paper... but I have a hard time believing it'll go down much further than 4200, then again I'm a newbie you guys make money off from.


----------



## Donga (2 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



alter1217 said:


> You guys are all thinking it'll go down to 3700?? Holy ****....
> 
> I guess it looks like one of those bearish ascending wedges I read about on the paper... but I have a hard time believing it'll go down much further than 4200, then again I'm a newbie you guys make money off from.




I'm with you alter, don't buy it though have seen nomore4s being fairly accurate over past few months. 4200 sounds like a reasonable correction before market rebounds from improving signs globally. Just MHO as don't go by the charts.


----------



## Out Too Soon (2 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

@alter 
Without trying to make any predictions I'd peg resistance/support at 4400, 4300 & finally 3700. No mystery about what my chart shows but then again tomorrow we could be heading up again.  I leave the predicting to those more confident to stick their neck out  




PS:  (hypocrisy follows)  my prediction is the market will head back up again by the end of the week but I am often fatally optimistic (& wrong)


----------



## Wysiwyg (2 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Don't really follow the XAO much but will throw my 2c in with 3 lines of interest from previous support/resistance. Coincidentally spaced nearly equal distance apart. Will see if any are honoured or not I suppose.


----------



## Dark1975 (3 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Update.
> 
> I'm now looking for a move back towards 3700 - Major support above the lows but there is a chance we could end up only pulling back towards the top of the first rally from the bottom which is around 4000-4100 - this would also make the decline 3 waves instead of 5. I will be looking for signs from individual stocks around this area to decide on how I trade around that level. But I still favour a test of 3700 for a number of reasons.
> 
> ...




Best analysis on ASF y.t.d.This possible scenario is in my view is close to my personal outlook.
Looking currently on the dow and ftse 100 futures currently -100.Well if we see a large red day on the dow tonight,tomorrow will be a interesting selling day,In reguards to a technical view,we could see 4488 tested.


----------



## beerwm (4 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> Best analysis on ASF y.t.d.This possible scenario is in my view is close to my personal outlook.
> Looking currently on the dow and ftse 100 futures currently -100.Well if we see a large red day on the dow tonight,tomorrow will be a interesting selling day,In reguards to a technical view,we could see 4488 tested.




not sold on 3700 - all the results/data are pretty good.

4100 will be a 20% drop, and a bear market.


----------



## Donga (5 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beerwm said:


> not sold on 3700 - all the results/data are pretty good. 4100 will be a 20% drop, and a bear market.




Agree Beerwm, expect we'll hang around this area a while before resuming the trek towards 5000.  

And funny how charts seem to add so much weight with some people. Yet Warren Buffet manages very well without them "stopped tech analysis when I turned charts upsidedown, got the same answers" and he has given me more confidence this week with his Burlington Northern play. 

Compelling quotes from recent Reserve Bank presentation... "Perhaps nowhere is the impact clearer than in the structure of our international trade, especially our exports. The recent trade data shows that Australia's four most important merchandise export destinations this year have been China, Japan, South Korea and India - all in Asia. The fifth largest is United States. Just six years ago US was ranked 2nd. Collectively, these four large Asian trading partners have accounted for around 55% of our total exports of goods over the past 12 months. Adding in the rest of Asia, the figure is around 70%" 

Elsewhere "As we have seen recently, the region has the capability to grow strongly through doemstic, not exernal demand. This really should not come as a surprise. After all the US economy, with a few hundred miilion people, has grown for many decades largely on the back of domestic, rather than foreign demend. There is no reason that the approxiamtely 3.5 billion people in Asia cannot do the same. It ultimately comes down to the policy choices that are made". 

The report of 19th Oct by Assistant Governor, Philip Lowe contains a lot of other objective reasoning from a very credible institution.   

This perspective, and somewhat reinforced by Buffett in the US still chugging away, means far more to me than any charts I see. Fundamentals analyses, and in the case of Buffett decision, based on his fundamental anlysis vs... tea leaves. Am being a little facetious as appreciate the informed chartists refer to fundamentals and also look for the next resistance levels etc, so no reflection on Dark1975 or nomore4s. Just that I place more weight on analysis of where we are and the outlook, based on more dynamics than a chart of where we've been.


----------



## Sunder (5 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Donga said:


> Agree Beerwm, expect we'll hang around this area a while before resuming the trek towards 5000.




I agree for different reasons. We've been hanging around support of 4500 to 4550 for 3 days now. Unless we break below 4400, I wouldn't expect to see any further significant down side... If we do break 4400 with any conviction though, I'd expect to see 3700 or so before we take a trek upwards again.


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It is strange in a way how this Australian Index has analysis when no matter how good the Australian economy might be looking, it is the American market that determines our fate.


----------



## skyQuake (5 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Past few days have seen lots of shorting but no real move in our markets.
ES futs were at 1040s vs SPI 4560s a few days ago.
Today they are 1040s vs SPI 4510s. Think we're overdue for a squeeze


----------



## Miro (5 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> It is strange in a way how this Australian Index has analysis when no matter how good the Australian economy might be looking, it is the American market that determines our fate.




So all the money printing in the US helps the US & AU markets, at least in the short term. Well, there's a huge increase of money supply going on in all countries, not just the US.

If all doom and gloom predictions of the US economy are correct in the long term, we'll have a massive sudden decline in the global markets when everyone loses faith in the US paper currency. Precious metals will shoot up instantly. Global markets outside US will eventually recover and the world will thrive again.


----------



## Joe Blow (5 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just a reminder to all that this is the XAO *Analysis* thread. Any targets (bullish or bearish) must be supported by some accompanying analysis.

It would be nice to see a chart but one is not mandatory.

If you are going to post, please offer something of value to those reading the thread.

Thank you. 

P.S. Not aiming this post at anyone in particular but we have been removing the odd post here and there for not offering any real content. Most posts in this thread are fine.


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> It is strange in a way how this Australian Index has analysis when no matter how good the Australian economy might be looking, it is the American market that determines our fate.



From August there has been some divergence but coming back into line now.


----------



## nomore4s (5 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Past few days have seen lots of shorting but no real move in our markets.
> ES futs were at 1040s vs SPI 4560s a few days ago.
> Today they are 1040s vs SPI 4510s. Think we're overdue for a squeeze




I tend to agree, I'm still looking for a lower high to confirm any bearish outlook.

I think we are going to retest 4750 before anymore downside. Breaking 4500 is still the key for any downside imo.

IMO a retreat to 4100 or 3700 would be a healthy correction.

I'm looking for the white scenario to play out but we could see the yellow or a number of other ones play out.


----------



## skc (5 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> I tend to agree, I'm still looking for a lower high to confirm any bearish outlook.
> 
> I think we are going to retest 4750 before anymore downside. Breaking 4500 is still the key for any downside imo.
> 
> ...




4500 was well defended on the SPI today...

I think 4650 will provide some resistance. That might end the retest before you know it. It will form a neat slanted H&S. 




On the hourly chart the 4650 level also feels important.




BTW this is my 1000th post!!! [Insert fireworks gif]


----------



## alter1217 (5 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Support level at 4300.  I should find a graph measuring Australia's GDP, and determine the slope of Australia's potential output, and place it over this... hard to find though.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (5 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



alter1217 said:


> I should find a graph measuring Australia's GDP, and determine the slope of Australia's potential output, and place it over this... hard to find though.



http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/Bulletin/G10hist.xls


----------



## Dark1975 (7 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beerwm said:


> not sold on 3700 - all the results/data are pretty good.
> 
> 4100 will be a 20% drop, and a bear market.




Just responding to your question!Sorry for the late response been away on business.
Well two sides of the coin i guess!Some traders looking to bearish movement(hence myself-a large correction to 3700 on the xao).Other traders looking at 5000 on the xao by xmas!.Spose who's right or wrong?
AnsweR: No one can predict future markets with out a crystal ball..lmao.But i guess we can refer to price action on a technical view or information.My personal investment strategies aren't perfect,But i look at risk to reward ratio!
I havn't seen price action to confirm my prediction to a lower target of 3700 on the xao,tho have seen support with infomation(unemployment figures of 10.2% in the u.s)Confirming in my mind,it aint all rosy reports coming in.

I respect your opinion,And you could be right?Important junction point in the market right now.I will follow up my information with graphs on the xao/dow to conclude and state my case for a possible extreme down turn in the market in the next few days.


----------



## $20shoes (7 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There's still a lot of sceptics who can't comprehend that this is a major rally.They've been waiting for this risk rally to tank all this while. So much money on the sidelines, waiting for a decent correction. If they don't get it here, there will be a forced wave of buying pressure. We'll go well above 5000.

see where the financials lead us....interesting juncture indeed


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Don't really follow the XAO much but will throw my 2c in with 3 lines of interest from previous support/resistance. Coincidentally spaced nearly equal distance apart. Will see if any are honoured or not I suppose.



Following on from this initial post reveals the index came within 16 points of the first zone. Unemployment figures in the USA will likely bring a further reduction in index price but the Americans are very defiant as can be evidenced with insane bull runs when the economy is going terrible.


----------



## beerwm (7 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A break of 5000 is more likely than a break of 4100. IMO

considering the XJO follows the US markets,

just looking at the SP500, HSI, the correction just looks like a norm of the past few months, 

XJO is the only one that has broke support @ 4600, and its probably not as significant the SP500 breaking support.


----------



## gamefisherman (8 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis - monthly*

Looking at the monthly could be a turn around shortly with a macd crossover, however looking at the weekly in next post not so good............this week to provide more of a picture i think..........or perhaps it has already been decided for the moment, anyway, imho forget all the noise, and focus on your own trading strategy with discipline, and all will be well........thats just my $2 worth......

good luck

cheers


----------



## gamefisherman (8 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis - weekly*

weekly chart not looking so hot atm.......again, forget the noise, trade the trend, stick to your trading plan, and all good.........

cheers


----------



## gamefisherman (8 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

loving incredible charts......no affiliiation to them whatsoever, thanx to karraway for putting me onto it..............superb..


----------



## $20shoes (9 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

onwards and upwards. correction over? I believe so. Too many buyers still trying to get in...there was distribution around our 4900 highs but looks like buyers are moving in. We'd have to target 5000 from here.


----------



## skyQuake (9 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Now the question is whether the break of uptrend for our majors earlier was the false break, or this recent spurt being the false brk...


----------



## bloomy88 (10 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



$20shoes said:


> onwards and upwards. correction over? I believe so. Too many buyers still trying to get in...there was distribution around our 4900 highs but looks like buyers are moving in. We'd have to target 5000 from here.




Gee, Dow Jones up 200+ points (2%) last night. Another day of upward movement in the All Ords coming up? Looks like we could be targeting 5000 now $20shoes...


----------



## grace (10 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Could someone do a bit of TA on the XAO?  I could do it, but it wouldn't look pretty (illustration that is - not necessarily the market).


----------



## nunthewiser (10 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



grace said:


> Could someone do a bit of TA on the XAO?  I could do it, but it wouldn't look pretty (illustration that is - not necessarily the market).





Mine isnt very pretty but here is what im looking at currently .........

Apologies for the ametureish attempt but feel i should at least try and return the courtesy you shown me previously  

just a view of a short scenario i can currently see ..... If it breaks my stoploss point i think between the stop and top of head will be a no mans land area where i would not be entering either way ....... A break of the head would see me in long.

may bounce along sideways for a few sessions from here before any definative move is made


----------



## Out Too Soon (12 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



grace said:


> Could someone do a bit of TA on the XAO?  I could do it, but it wouldn't look pretty (illustration that is - not necessarily the market).



Well Grace I'm not the right man for the job ( a bit like the blind leading the blind ) but my charts prettier than "the nuns" 




PS: dear Grace, I was not insinuating that you are blind 

Note my cheeky little caption on the chart- if it's unreadable it says "crossed PSAR just above median= bullish"  I do beleive it's a bullish signal- looking back at previous crossing of the dotted PSAR line the XAO has been bullish jun 1st, jul 14th esp as they were near that purple median line which is again the case.

Honestly tho I thing XAO analysis is a bit pointless tho as we are slave to the US mkt. If the US does the opposite XAO TA is out the window


----------



## Out Too Soon (12 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oh & "my money is where my mouth is" just proving that I'm eternally, often fatally optimistic, all my spare cash (the banks  ) is tied up in the mkt at present.


----------



## skyQuake (12 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Take my advice and throw Parabolic S&R in the bin! It fails miserably when something doesnt trend perfectly!


----------



## brty (12 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

:iagree:

Along with just about every other crutch, .....errr indicator.

brty


----------



## nomore4s (12 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Out Too Soon said:


> Honestly tho I thing XAO analysis is a bit pointless tho as we are slave to the US mkt. If the US does the opposite XAO TA is out the window




If that is true the XAO charts will have that reflected in them anyway. Also there have been plenty of posters in this thread that have shown how XAO analysis can quite reliable in determining turning points in the market.

It is not always the US that leads sometimes they follow us and Asia. While I haven't had a chance to have a good look at todays data there looked to be some weakness in the Aussie markets today and maybe Asia as well but I haven't looked at any data from Asia yet today. So now if the US shows some weakness tonight who lead who?


----------



## Donga (12 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Without being specific on timelines and for all sorts of reasons, believe we will witness the gradual demise of the US "empire" after 60-80 years akin to the decline of the British Empire from late 1800's to WWI and aftermath. After a false start from Japan, the sheer volume of population and their educated, low cost work force, will see Asia lead by Chindia with all their political challenges, take the mantle. 

So whether it be 2010 or 2012, with our resources and their demand, expect we'll see a gradual realignment to the Asian markets. Not rocket science and just my  and explains why I get frustrated with folk calling doom and gloom regarding the US troubles ahead and then talk about our next major correction. 

Trick is the timing.


----------



## saiter (13 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Donga said:


> Without being specific on timelines and for all sorts of reasons, believe we will witness the gradual demise of the US "empire" after 60-80 years akin to the decline of the British Empire from late 1800's to WWI and aftermath. After a false start from Japan, the sheer volume of population and their educated, low cost work force, will see Asia lead by Chindia with all their political challenges, take the mantle.




You're assuming that the US is going to let them. Three to four months ago, loads of people were professing that the US dollar was going to collapse, gold would reign supreme (this point on its own is just a load of ****) and the US would become some country with nothing going for it.
The thing is, the US dollar and the US itself is backed by one of the biggest and arguably the strongest military OF ALL TIME. No one is going to want to push the US off their pedestal because of this. Full Stop. "Chindia" may rise up in the ranks and beat other western nations, but there is no way that they will overthrow the US without some ridiculous firepower behind them.


----------



## CamKawa (22 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like XAO is set for a sell off.

Shares set to explode


----------



## gamefisherman (22 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

trade the trend............


----------



## nulla nulla (22 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like the bears are comming out of hibernation and trying to rally support for another downtrend. imo it is a bit early yet, they would do better to wait until the markets heat up a bit more. As was pointed out in the chatroom last week, if shorters want to target stocks they would do better to start from a high price. Apart from rio, everything else worth chipping away at is 10% - 15% off their October highs.


----------



## Logique (23 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CamKawa said:


> Looks like XAO is set for a sell off.
> 
> Shares set to explode



Over on the CBA thread, Sinner has posted a chart (22 Nov) showing how CBA has been leading the index, and CBA is at present trending down below the index.
Also I've learnt over the years that you need to be careful about going long so close to Christmas.  It would take an attractive discount to convince me to cover any of my shorts from here.


----------



## sammy84 (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Over on the CBA thread, Sinner has posted a chart (22 Nov) showing how CBA has been leading the index, and CBA is at present trending down below the index.
> Also I've learnt over the years that you need to be careful about going long so close to Christmas.  It would take an attractive discount to convince me to cover any of my shorts from here.




I think that chart posted by sinner was plainly in reference to CBA outperforming the market, rather than it being a leading indicator from movements of the XAO in anyway. Banks are poorely performing simply due to a lower US$ and the switch to resources.

Also, the XAO has over a 70% of rallying into XMAS.

I see the market going on stronger from here, we have a lot of ground to make up with US if they continue to rally. Have entered a few longs today accordingly.


----------



## Whiskers (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Also, the XAO has over a 70% of rallying into XMAS.
> 
> I see the market going on stronger from here, we have a lot of ground to make up with US if they continue to rally.




I go along with this. Just looking at the AUDUSD weekly chart, an ascending wedge coming to a point, I think the AUD has probably peaked against the USD for now and set to retreat back into the .80's. 

This would give our resource stocks in particular an extra boost assuming that the US economy has probably bottomed and our best resource customer, China, has hardly missed a beat relatively speaking.


----------



## nomore4s (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> I see the market going on stronger from here, we have a lot of ground to make up with US if they continue to rally. Have entered a few longs today accordingly.




With the current strength in the US markets I too think we could be going higher. The only problem atm is we keep seeing pretty bad fades when we should be seeing strong days, this could be a sign of some selling into strength but if we can push past this area of resistance and the US markets continue on their merry way we could shoot higher pretty quickly.

The flip side of that of course is if we do see some weakness appear in the overseas markets we could see a pretty rapid sell off in the XAO.

I'm still on the fence as far as my trading is concerned, I have a few cautious longs open (mainly longer term holdings but a few shorter term trades) and only one short. I'm happy to sit back and wait for the moment, no need to trade aggressively.


----------



## sammy84 (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> The only problem atm is we keep seeing pretty bad fades when we should be seeing strong days, this could be a sign of some selling into strength but if we can push past this area of resistance and the US markets continue on their merry way we could shoot higher pretty quickly.




Seems to be quite appropriate to talk about selling into strength at the moment. The only thing is the low volumes at present don't indicate conviction selling either. I really am struggling to understand these fade-outs. The US nearly faded-out this morning, but then rallied slightly again in the last 10min.

Interesting times, either way I feel that we are in for an explosive move one way or another.


----------



## nunthewiser (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Personally think you guys are wrong  refer to my XAO chart posted here before (ignore the red stop line as was supposed to be a range placed there and im not that good at posting charts ) the jist IS that my analysis STILL stands , not been proven wrong as YET and  also refer to the "xao banter " thread ... 

Weeklies one BEWT head and shoulder pattern on XAO, dailies confirming.

I could be wrong but i think not on this one  

I suppose thats what makes a market. one bloke thinks the other bloke is wrong regardless of who is right


----------



## sinner (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> I think that chart posted by sinner was plainly in reference to CBA outperforming the market, rather than it being a leading indicator from movements of the XAO in anyway. Banks are poorely performing simply due to a lower US$ and the switch to resources.
> 
> Also, the XAO has over a 70% of rallying into XMAS.
> 
> I see the market going on stronger from here, we have a lot of ground to make up with US if they continue to rally. Have entered a few longs today accordingly.




Hey I'm famous! People are talking about me, better sell a trading system while I can! :

I would just like to raise a few points if that is ok. These are just foods for thought I have no bias currently.

1. The SP500 rise in November has been on declining volume. Bearish.
2. The daily momentum MACD (5,35,5) and normal MACD (12,26,9) for this index have been making lower highs (divergence highs) since the Aug-Sep highs. The fade of the first 0 cross since July was the above rise in declining volume although we did manage a higher high. Indicates down-trend imminence. But this could just be a market pullback, not the resumption of the 08 bear.
3. I am not interested in shorting any index until ES has a consistent NY trading session under 990 (as this is the bullish level which caused the current breakout imho)
4. We really aren't that overbought in the context of 0% money.
5. Goldman Sachs can do whatever they like.
6. When the top comes, nobody here will have picked it.


----------



## nunthewiser (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sinner said:


> 6. When the top comes, nobody here will have picked it.






Hehehehe  i already have dude


----------



## sinner (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Hehehehe  i already have dude




Well I admit, this is as good a place as any to short considering the low vol run up on the SPX. But if you have "picked the top" then you should have a target, timeframe and exit plan, do you mind sharing them with us so we get a bit of an idea of your thinking?


----------



## nunthewiser (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sinner said:


> Well I admit, this is as good a place as any to short considering the low vol run up on the SPX. But if you have "picked the top" then you should have a target, timeframe and exit plan, do you mind sharing them with us so we get a bit of an idea of your thinking?




Scroll back in this thread for chart ..... Also Xao banter thread ...... first target 4500, will re-evaluate from there IF there is a bounce ..... i cannot give a timeframe as the ball moving at varying speeds with these lower vols... currently only short one stock as mentioned in banter thread . was short a bank also but got trailing stop hit on it ( anz) previously....

I was attempting humor on my previous post ......pay no heed .......

Back to  being a meek and godly nun in chat whilst waiting for henny penny to sqwawk


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Hehehehe  i already have dude




If indeed that is the top at 4897! History shows 50% or more  retracements after strong up moves. 50% is around 4000  points.


----------



## sinner (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Scroll back in this thread for chart ..... Also Xao banter thread ...... first target 4500, will re-evaluate from there IF there is a bounce ..... i cannot give a timeframe as the ball moving at varying speeds with these lower vols... currently only short one stock as mentioned in banter thread . was short a bank also but got trailing stop hit on it ( anz) previously....
> 
> I was attempting humor on my previous post ......pay no heed .......
> 
> Back to  being a meek and godly nun in chat whilst waiting for henny penny to sqwawk




Ah ok, I misunderstood you. I thought you said you had picked the top, which means to me you expect at least a 25% retrace from the highs! Targetting 4500 is just a healthy retrace of the trend?


----------



## skyQuake (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey whiskers, imo the correlation between the AUD and Equities market is too strong for a selloff on the AUD to be good for miners. 
It seems that the AUD has become a risk proxy for equities, (in fact correlation with emerging markets is stronger than for our bourse)
Will be very interesting to see what ahppens if the bond decides to break.


----------



## nomore4s (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Seems to be quite appropriate to talk about selling into strength at the moment. The only thing is the low volumes at present don't indicate conviction selling either. I really am struggling to understand these fade-outs. The US nearly faded-out this morning, but then rallied slightly again in the last 10min.
> 
> Interesting times, either way I feel that we are in for an explosive move one way or another.




You can only sell into whatever strength there is available. If the demand isn't there to sell high volumes into you can only off load so much without causing prices to drop too far. This probably also indicates there isn't much demand at these levels, not a good combination.

The fact is the last few times the DOW has had a 100+ point day and we would normally expect the XAO/XJO to have strong days we have had weak days. Whether the market can absorb this weakness and push higher or not is yet to be decided.


----------



## sinner (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> The fact is the last few times the DOW has had a 100+ point day and we would normally expect the XAO/XJO to have strong days we have had weak days.




Seems to me there is a valid not-necessarily-bearish reason for this though:

Every time the Dow had 100+ point day, AUDUSD and AUDJPY would be rising overnight at the same levels as well as commodities. So on the open many of the export companies making up the ASX (for example look at CVN and IAU) will have lost some competitiveness overnight. So the rise on XAO would be proportional to that?

Please correct me if this is blatantly wrong.


----------



## nomore4s (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sinner said:


> Seems to me there is a valid not-necessarily-bearish reason for this though:
> 
> Every time the Dow had 100+ point day, AUDUSD and AUDJPY would be rising overnight at the same levels as well as commodities. So on the open many of the export companies making up the ASX (for example look at CVN and IAU) will have lost some competitiveness overnight. So the rise on XAO would be proportional to that?
> 
> Please correct me if this is blatantly wrong.




No idea but I don't think it would account for the fades we are seeing halfway through the day, could be wrong though.


----------



## nomore4s (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Personally think you guys are wrong  refer to my XAO chart posted here before (ignore the red stop line as was supposed to be a range placed there and im not that good at posting charts ) the jist IS that my analysis STILL stands , not been proven wrong as YET and  also refer to the "xao banter " thread ...
> 
> Weeklies one BEWT head and shoulder pattern on XAO, dailies confirming.
> 
> ...




My longer term analysis is also still in play, we need to see the down leg eventuate shortly though or it will be invalidated and I'll have to come up with a new guess.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=505591&postcount=7685
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=507013&postcount=7699


----------



## skc (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> No idea but I don't think it would account for the fades we are seeing halfway through the day, could be wrong though.




Half way through the day? The fades start essentially right after the open today, and the same on 3 occasions last week.

Speaking of correlation... there has been strong correlation between USD, DOW and GOLD. If I understand what many are saying is that GOLD and equities have been rising at the expense of the fall in USD. But I get a sense that this correlation is breaking down. Can USD and GOLD both rise at the same time? Does that signify that risk aversion is back in vogue?


----------



## sammy84 (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> You can only sell into whatever strength there is available. If the demand isn't there to sell high volumes into you can only off load so much without causing prices to drop too far. This probably also indicates there isn't much demand at these levels, not a good combination.
> 
> The fact is the last few times the DOW has had a 100+ point day and we would normally expect the XAO/XJO to have strong days we have had weak days. Whether the market can absorb this weakness and push higher or not is yet to be decided.




Agreed and not at the same time. There may be selling into strength, but I would exactly call the last days price action 'strength'. There should have also been some conviction selling on down days aswell to accompanying this bearishness. I really dont under these fades. The US on the other hand has happy some pretty good strength in the last 10-15 minutes of trading the last few days.


----------



## nomore4s (24 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Half way through the day? The fades start essentially right after the open today, and the same on 3 occasions last week.




lol, it was purely a figure of speech.


----------



## surfziggy (25 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some questions for you (and my guesses - they may be somewhat oversimplified, I dont claim to be an economist!) :

1) Which way is the US$ headed? 
I think stagnant or down - US surely is in no hurry to raise interest rates. One way to reduce it's large debt would possibly be to let the $ slide further.
2) Which way is the A$ headed?
up or the same by token of my last answer - that and Mr Swan says interest rates are headed up.
3) Will the US, ASX markets stay strongly coupled to the way the US$ is moving?
Probably?

So, to summarise my theory is that unless there is some kind of trigger/catalyst I think we continue the same direction we have been. Plus I saw this the other day:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles...n-socgen-pharma-minyanville/index/a/25587/p/1

Societe Generale reckons that while the retail investor is highly invested, the funds aren't:

Comments?


----------



## sammy84 (25 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Surfziggy you may be right there. I guess one question is whether the US$ has been oversold and it due for a correction. I also note that gold is really starting to look streched (please note I'm a trend follower and don't like to pick tops here, but it is looking streched nonetheless). I wonder what reaction the US$ would have if the gold price starts to lower.

On another note, yet another fade out in the Australian markets after what was another bullish day in the US. The US finished well of their lows on a negative news day. Sooner or later either the US market has to drop or Aus has to play catch up.


----------



## sinner (25 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Surfziggy you may be right there. I guess one question is whether the US$ has been oversold and it due for a correction. I also note that gold is really starting to look streched (please note I'm a trend follower and don't like to pick tops here, but it is looking streched nonetheless). I wonder what reaction the US$ would have if the gold price starts to lower.
> 
> On another note, yet another fade out in the Australian markets after what was another bullish day in the US. The US finished well of their lows on a negative news day. Sooner or later either the US market has to drop or Aus has to play catch up.




Also worth to note while gold has been making new highs AUDUSD and USDCAD have not been making new highs (A/U) and new lows (U/C). Indicates to me gold is gaining some fundamental value. If gold and oil drops from here on USD strength there is NOTHING to hold up the commodity currency basket (of course, that is what the commodity currencies should want, cheaper currency = more competitive exports).


----------



## Whiskers (25 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



surfziggy said:


> Some questions for you (and my guesses - they may be somewhat oversimplified, I dont claim to be an economist!) :
> 
> 1) Which way is the US$ headed?
> I think stagnant or down - US surely is in no hurry to raise interest rates. One way to reduce it's large debt would possibly be to let the $ slide further.
> ...




I was gonna post this in the Gold and AUD threads, but since you posed the perfect prompt and the bottom line will be the effect on the XAO, I'll consolidate it here.

I'm watching for the AUD to fall against the USD pretty soon fundamentally, technically it's also indicated because of an ascending wedge, some MACD divergance and a reasonable looking H&S on the hourly, which would bring it back into the .80's.

I'm also looking for the XAUUSD to peak probably below 1,200 and generally go sideways for some time based on both my alternate counts looking for a corrective wave and the 1.618 mark just above 1,200. A similar scenario with all other metals.

This would also be consistent with the USD firming particularly against the AUD which I think was bought up heavily because we didnlt go into recession and raised interest rates first and likely to pause for a bit while the rest of the world recovers.

The net effect, all other things being equal, should be better returns for our exporters a minimal (comparatively) rise in imports and a strengthening XAO.


----------



## surfziggy (25 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Surfziggy you may be right there. I guess one question is whether the US$ has been oversold and it due for a correction. I also note that gold is really starting to look streched (please note I'm a trend follower and don't like to pick tops here, but it is looking streched nonetheless). I wonder what reaction the US$ would have if the gold price starts to lower.




I guess I'm thinking of US$ being the horse not the cart. Also, although gold has had a phenomenal run, it could stilll run higher due to its scarcity, fear, inflation fears, dollar devaluation fears etc, right? It seems to me something that is very difficult to put a fair value on. I read somewhere the other day that based on the US$ fractional backed reserves that gold *should* be worth $6400 per troy oz. I'm not a gold bug and don't subscribe to the doomsday sayers. At the end of the day something is only worth what someone else will pay for it.



sammy84 said:


> On another note, yet another fade out in the Australian markets after what was another bullish day in the US. The US finished well of their lows on a negative news day. Sooner or later either the US market has to drop or Aus has to play catch up.




If we're to maintain correlation, yes. Has anyone done any study of the correlation between the two markets and the ratio of the indexes and there change? It's a simplistic measure, but that's effectively what we're asking here, isn't it?

In other words if the S&P 500 is at 1100, and the XJO is 4700 then the ratio is 4.27272727. Depending on the ratio we're either oversold or overbought to maintain correlation. You could probabtly create some kind of chart of this automatically from the two indexes and a MA?


----------



## Whiskers (25 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Could it also be the case that the big boys in the market are waiting for the turn in the AUD and fadeing out as the day goes on when it doesn't come?

Is that a reasonable H&S on the XAO? That would set up a target around 5,100 or so.


----------



## surfziggy (25 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Could it also be the case that the big boys in the market are waiting for the turn in the AUD and fadeing out as the day goes on when it doesn't come?
> 
> Is that a reasonable H&S on the XAO? That would set up a target around 5,100 or so.




I'm not sure I understand? So they were waiting for a turn in the AUD, which they in turn expect the XJO to (possibly maybe probably) fall. In advance of this they want to bid the market up, so they can go short at the best possible price? So, if this is the case would you expect there to be divergence between the price action of some of the 'names' and the rest of the market or something else? In other words how can you measure this? Does it cause a disconnect between the SPI price and the index? Perhaps a market manipulator can explain it to me?


----------



## Wysiwyg (26 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Negative divergence on the weekly MACD, signal line cross and histogram below zero, a potential head and shoulders topping pattern on the daily chart and less market exuberance (what else is there  makes the XAO look ripe to drop. Weekly chart so things are happening at a comfortable pace.


----------



## Whiskers (26 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



surfziggy said:


> I'm not sure I understand? So they were waiting for a turn in the AUD, which they in turn expect the XJO to (possibly maybe probably) fall. In advance of this they want to bid the market up, so they can go short at the best possible price? So, if this is the case would you expect there to be divergence between the price action of some of the 'names' and the rest of the market or something else? In other words how can you measure this? Does it cause a disconnect between the SPI price and the index? Perhaps a market manipulator can explain it to me?




Essentially, if I was a big player and was confident of the AUD falling against the USD shortly, I may buy on the opens when the SPI indicated higher and sell, take small profits if the market, ie the AUD didn't fall to equate to an increase in revenue for and boost XAO listed (particularly exporting) companies as the day wore on, especially if the XAO started to loose momentum.

For me the best way to gauge this strategy is to keep a close eye on the currrencies, major indicies and the sort of stock you might buy if that were the case.


----------



## nomore4s (27 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Agreed and not at the same time. There may be selling into strength, but I would exactly call the last days price action 'strength'. *There should have also been some conviction selling on down days as well to accompanying this bearishness.* I really dont under these fades. The US on the other hand has happy some pretty good strength in the last 10-15 minutes of trading the last few days.




Well we're seeing some conviction today, lol.



nomore4s said:


> My longer term analysis is also still in play, we need to see the down leg eventuate shortly though or it will be invalidated and I'll have to come up with a new guess.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=505591&postcount=7685
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=507013&postcount=7699




Will up date my charts later tonight or tomorrow. The market has looked shaky for the last 2 weeks or so and imo was looking for a reason to sell off. 

Still need to see 4500 broken to confirm a lower low after a lower high. 

Also if we do get a sustained down leg here, it might put paid to the notion that we blindly follow the DOW? While the DOW was making new highs we were making a lower high?


----------



## derty (27 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Is that a reasonable H&S on the XAO? That would set up a target around 5,100 or so.



It looks like a H&S to me, though I thought a H&S pattern was an indication of an unsuccessful attempt to continue the up-trend and suggests a coming break down? Though I see we haven't cleared the neckline yet just above 4500. Carnage on the DOW tonight could see us test this on Monday.


----------



## skyQuake (27 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



derty said:


> It looks like a H&S to me, though I thought a H&S pattern was an indication of an unsuccessful attempt to continue the up-trend and suggests a coming break down? Though I see we haven't cleared the neckline yet just above 4500. Carnage on the DOW tonight could see us test this on Monday.




The 2nd low should be higher now lower than the first low (forming the neckline). Theres a lot less validity if its already made a lower low (and this ppl would have gotten out); so when it finally breaks the neckline there is less 'ammo' so to speak of people dumping.


----------



## Wysiwyg (28 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> The 2nd low should be higher now lower than the first low (forming the neckline). Theres a lot less validity if its already made a lower low (and this ppl would have gotten out); so when it finally breaks the neckline there is less 'ammo' so to speak of people dumping.



Well that is interesting. I have not read anywhere that it is a prerequisite to be sloping up. There is mention of generally up sloping but can be sloping down also, even horizontal. I guess we all have different interpretations.


----------



## skyQuake (28 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Well that is interesting. I have not read anywhere that it is a prerequisite to be sloping up. There is mention of generally up sloping but can be sloping down also, even horizontal. I guess we all have different interpretations.





Someone who has traded a lot more than me explained it; the H&S works because it provides a setup where a lot of people dump the stock due to a change in the trend.
If a lower low is already made, a few players would be looking to sell out, not to mention the stop losses below the last swing low. Thats some sellers taken out already. When it finally breaches the sloping down neckline a lot of the sellers are bailed out already, and the move won't be as explosive - thus more instances of pattern failure
But then again I don't really use H&S as u don't see many good ones around :\


----------



## nulla nulla (28 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



derty said:


> It looks like a H&S to me, though I thought a H&S pattern was an indication of an unsuccessful attempt to continue the up-trend and suggests a coming break down? Though I see we haven't cleared the neckline yet just above 4500. Carnage on the DOW tonight could see us test this on Monday.




Looking at the shoulders in your graph, the November shoulder is higher than the October shoulder. It would appear to indicate that the xao will go above 4800 if it can bounce before 4500. If it doesn't get support above 4500 then the next level of support appears to be 4400.

Although the Dow fell 150 last night it is still above 10,000. The banks in the U.S so far have indicated that they have neglible exposure to Dubai (as have the Australian banks) but the market is wary of the impact of indirect exposure. 

A significant impact has already been felt in the Commercial Property sectors. It appears the market is expecting some of the Dubai properties to come onto the market at significant discounts to market value, dragging down the rest of the property values as properties are sold to raise capital to invest in the Dubai bargains.

This could also partially explain the pull back in the Australian Dollar, funds being converted out of the Aud$ to be used for buying into Dubai if there is a sell off of assets to reduce debt.

And the wheels go round and round


----------



## sammy84 (30 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Assuming today’s strength holds, then we have a higher swing low. Combined with the lower swing high, the XAO could be forming a symmetrical triangle. Santa Claus rally still in play....


----------



## Kryzz (30 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Any comments re the gap? last few gaps on the index were filled and were followed by an immediate sort of push?


----------



## skyQuake (30 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kryzz said:


> Any comments re the gap? last few gaps on the index were filled and were followed by an immediate sort of push?




The staggered open screws things up. You have to find a chart that adjusts for the staggered open (called the XJO gap chart).. Haven't seen a reliable vendor of those for agessss.

There was a thread about this I think involving whiskers and TH a while ago, maybe in this thread?


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Fairly basic pattern is the symmetrical triangle. The narrowing of swing range is between 70 points now so I believe a breach of these (imaginary) boundaries will happen soon. An alternative is the swing boundaries being extended and hence breaking down the triangular pattern. Christmas cash-in may have begun.


----------



## nomore4s (9 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The XAO is starting to show signs of distribution imo, but unfortunately the only way we will know if this is distribution or not is when we break either up or down from this trading range.

The first chart shows 5 pushes up that have been met with selling with higher vol then in the preceding bars. Also the decline after the 3rd push up has increased volume and you could probably say increased spread - compare this to the 3 wave decline in June.

The second chart is just a bit of an overview of the increased volume we are seeing at the tops.

I will admit that I have a somewhat bearish bias atm so take want you want from this, but I'm pretty much on the sidelines waiting for confirmation one way or the other as this sort of market doesn't really suit my trading. Confirmation is either a break down through 4500 or up through 4900.

I think we could just meander in this range till after the New Year now but you never know what could set the market off.


----------



## Synergy (10 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I feel the coming days may give a clearer picture of the direction we're about to take leading into Christmas.

ps: are we in a wave 4 EW'ers?


----------



## nomore4s (11 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just for a bit of fun - 3 different triangles in play


----------



## Boggo (11 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Synergy said:


> ps: are we in a wave 4 EW'ers?




If this is a W.4 then the chart below (ASX 200) may be a guide to the outcome if C = A.

A break above 4800 would be nice but a break below 4560 on another run down would be the first step to the 4300 to 4400 area assuming W.4 retraces 38% to 50% of W.3.

Just my amateur 

(click to expand)


----------



## Whiskers (12 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kryzz said:


> Any comments re the gap? last few gaps on the index were filled and were followed by an immediate sort of push?






skyQuake said:


> The staggered open screws things up. You have to find a chart that adjusts for the staggered open (called the XJO gap chart).. Haven't seen a reliable vendor of those for agessss.
> 
> There was a thread about this I think involving whiskers and TH a while ago, maybe in this thread?




Yes, controversial issue... but my point was that they are generally filled. 

Re, that discussion earlier in this thread with TH, it got too much into finite detail as skyQuake illudes to. All I would say is that so long as you compare apples with apples, ie the same type of data and chart, then the comparrison is generally valid... ie if the same process deals with opening issues on each day and chart then there is a valid comparison. How significant that comparison may be is another issue.

Now... I'm in concert with the current theme of this thread... triangles. As others have indicated we are getting close to something breaking one way or another. 

I'm still leaning to a break up, which seems to be supported by my fundamentals and translated into this macro (weekly) EW count. For me the lead indicator will be the AUDUSD continuing to fall.


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Just for a bit of fun - 3 different triangles in play



So which one do you lean toward? 

The symmetrical is the more honest drawing in my opinion.


----------



## nomore4s (12 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> So which one do you lean toward?
> 
> The symmetrical is the more honest drawing in my opinion.




None really, all three really mean squat. We can break up or down from either one, none give any real idea of future direction - All they really tell us is which ever way we do break it will probably be quite a good move.

As stated earlier I favour a move down from here but it could go either way really. I don't think we will see much conviction either way till the New Year now but you never know with the markets.


----------



## Broadway (12 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Every dip gets bought.

Dubai, Greece, whatever bad news comes is hit with buying. 

Whatever good news occurs (US gdp/jobs) at the top of the range gets shorted.

There would have to be a catastophic event to send the xao/es down a long way.

Interesting that the USD and the ES went up last night. They are trying hard to divorce(from the long held inverse relationship), but if the ES falls early next week then the relationship is still present.

If anything the xao is lagging the climbing ES, and may want to catch up next week, esoecially if the ES keeps rising.


----------



## nulla nulla (12 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> Looking at the shoulders in your graph, the November shoulder is higher than the October shoulder. It would appear to indicate that the xao will go above 4800 if it can bounce before 4500. If it doesn't get support above 4500 then the next level of support appears to be 4400.
> 
> Although the Dow fell 150 last night it is still above 10,000. The banks in the U.S so far have indicated that they have neglible exposure to Dubai (as have the Australian banks) but the market is wary of the impact of indirect exposure.
> 
> ...




As at Friday 11 December 2009:







http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=au:xao

The XAO rose for 4 straight days then fell for 5 straight days before a minor bounce yesterday. The high was barely less than the height of the previous shoulder (arround 4800) while the low was higher than the previous low finding support in the low 4600 area. 

There seems to be a lack of confidence in the market atm holding it back from breaking through the 4800 resistance. The lack of confidence continues to dominate, which is odd given the news regarding Employment & Housing in Australia and the encouraging signs in China and the USA. 

In the lead up to the Christmas/New Year break I would not be surprised to see a further retrace to the 4500 support levels as volumes in turnover drop and people pull their money out for the holiday period.


----------



## Logique (13 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> If anything the xao is lagging the climbing ES, and may want to catch up next week, esoecially if the ES keeps rising.



Silly Q. what do you mean by the ES?  
Very confusing situation with the market indices, just don't know which way it's going to break.  Range trading, and not a lot of conviction. The stocks I follow do seem to react to the USD strength or weakness, so this might provide a leading indictor as others have said.


----------



## Broadway (13 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Silly Q. what do you mean by the ES?
> .




ES is the s+p500 futures.


----------



## MRC & Co (13 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Interesting that the USD and the ES went up last night. They are trying hard to divorce(from the long held inverse relationship), but if the ES falls early next week then the relationship is still present.
> 
> If anything the xao is lagging the climbing ES, and may want to catch up next week, esoecially if the ES keeps rising.




Exactly and exactly.

Once again, they tried to break the USD/ES negative correlation down on non-farms (last time failed, will be interesting to view if it will fail again once more).  

But if like you say, the ES does climb nxt wk, I will be looking for the SPI to get some panic buying to try and catch up.  

On that note, in SPI orderflow over the last few days, there has been a HUGE seller distributing, just sitting on the asks trying to take fills, and whenever other markets tank, he panics and goes to market for fills.  

Good comments Broadway.


----------



## Naked shorts (13 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Once again, they tried to break the USD/ES negative correlation down on non-farms (last time failed, will be interesting to view if it will fail again once more).




Its over, and should be for a little while yet imo. Any good news that comes out now is seen as a sign the US will raise interest rates which which causes the USD to rally.. any bad and the USD tanks before people scared of the inevitable buy into the move.  All carry currencies eventually have their run. Ive been riding it since last friday... S/L's and trailing T/P's are delicious :drink:

Of course, I could be wrong and my opinion could change 10seconds after I post this.


----------



## MRC & Co (13 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> Its over, and should be for a little while yet imo. Any good news that comes out now is seen as a sign the US will raise interest rates which which causes the USD to rally.. any bad and the USD tanks before people scared of the inevitable buy into the move.  All carry currencies eventually have their run. Ive been riding it since last friday... S/L's and trailing T/P's are delicious :drink:
> 
> Of course, I could be wrong and my opinion could change 10seconds after I post this.




Ah, interesting, I haven't been watching the figures affecting the USD close enough over nights lately, but I trust your point.  

With oil coming off so far and a good leading indicator, could be a real rally here in the USD to come yet!  

Short AUD could be a great short from here, considering it is still relatively high.....


----------



## white_goodman (13 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Id really like to see oil below 66 and AUD below 89 before i got heavy short atm, likewise Euro below 1.45's, but yeh Im pretty sure DX did good volumes off weekly support, so we may see a run to atleast 80 on zee old DX


----------



## Naked shorts (13 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Short AUD could be a great short from here, considering it is still relatively high.....



Well thing is with a strong AUD the Australian economy isnt under much stress compared to all the other high yielding nations. Plus the interest rate difference isn't all too high and the whole world loves Australia atm (cause its a non corrupt com country right next to China)

ZAR and TRY are a little bit different on the other hand..


but all eyes are on the TED spread to see if this move has momentum.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP:IND


----------



## Naked shorts (13 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



white_goodman said:


> Id really like to see oil below 66 and AUD below 89 before i got heavy short atm, likewise Euro below 1.45's, but yeh Im pretty sure DX did good volumes off weekly support, so we may see a run to atleast 80 on zee old DX




A run on a carry currency wouldn't move around like that. The moves are always negatively skewed.
http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/pictures/sdr1.GIF

Lots of research papers on the net about it.


----------



## Wysiwyg (16 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Fairly basic pattern is the symmetrical triangle. The narrowing of swing range is between 70 points now so I believe a breach of these (imaginary) boundaries will happen soon. An alternative is the swing boundaries being extended and hence breaking down the triangular pattern. Christmas cash-in may have begun.



Continuing from the previous triangle formation the index price poked through the imaginary confine by about 10 points. A few eager beavers there no doubt. A matter of time before the top line gets questioned or the price disappears through the bottom line. Usually a continuation pattern in an uptrend.


----------



## Kryzz (16 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Continuing from the previous triangle formation the index price poked through the imaginary confine by about 10 points. A few eager beavers there no doubt. A matter of time before the top line gets questioned or the price disappears through the bottom line. Usually a continuation pattern in an uptrend.




Found this to be an interesting Read, with re to the sym triangle. 

http://thepatternsite.com/TrendChanges.html

Will be watching reaction if/when price reaches the apex point, be it a break up or down from the triangle. Hugging the trendline atm, coming up to some resistance, interesting ew position too.


----------



## MRC & Co (16 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> Well thing is with a strong AUD the Australian economy isnt under much stress compared to all the other high yielding nations. Plus the interest rate difference isn't all too high and the whole world loves Australia atm (cause its a non corrupt com country right next to China)
> 
> ZAR and TRY are a little bit different on the other hand..




Yeh, agreed, but at the same time, most quantatative 'fair value' models have the AUD slightly overvalued still against the USD.


----------



## Naked shorts (16 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, agreed, but at the same time, most quantatative 'fair value' models have the AUD slightly overvalued still against the USD.




Since when do currencies ever go near their "fair value"?


----------



## MRC & Co (16 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> Since when do currencies ever go near their "fair value"?




Well it depends what 'fair value' modelling you are talking of.  

I am talking of a model much more complex than simply based on CPI.  Not that it always works, but if it aligns with other factors, only adds more conviction.

RBA comments today help too!


----------



## nulla nulla (17 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thursday 17-December 2009 AEDST the DOW closed down 10.88 (-0.10%) at10,441.12 and the NASDAQ closed up 5.86 (+0.27%) at 2,206.91. 

The Dow continues to hold above 10,400 but lacks the momentum and confidence to break through 10,500. We might have to wait until after the holiday season finishes for any clear direction to emerge. 

The XAO appears to have reached the same lack of impetus struggling between 4600 and 4700.


----------



## Logique (19 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just to present an alternative perspective on things: 
if you look at the 12 month XAO chart - compare the Sept 09 level with now = about the same. Now compare the indicators. It reads to me as divergence, thus caution, not much conviction about going higher (just yet anyway).


----------



## nulla nulla (19 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Dow finished this week at 10328 (up on yesterdays close by 20 points) having clawed its way back up from 10260 halfway through the trading session. 

The nasdaq finished on 2211 gaining a significant 31 points on the previous days close. 

The XAO closed the week on 4671 maintaining the gap with the Dow but showing some resiliance to stay above 4600. 

Next week will be a short week for trading, in the lead up to Christmas Day. I'm waiting to see if the investors taking their cash out for the holiday period are offset by bargain hunters, optimistically, setting themselves up for next year.


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> *Just to present an alternative perspective on things: *
> if you look at the 12 month XAO chart - compare the Sept 09 level with now = about the same. Now compare the indicators. It reads to me as divergence, thus caution, not much conviction about going higher (just yet anyway).



Hello, all those indicators start turning down when the XAO does so where is the divergence? Also wondering what the alternative perspective is because those indicators are mainstream?


----------



## motorway (19 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO has had Strong move UP
After UP normal to see Sideways
Even Correction like last time on this chart

THIS time NOW ?
Market has been stronger
The Pattern at the TOP reveals
That there IS supply willing to trade and at slightly lower prices

BUT the underneath of the pattern Gives some nice Pivotal Points
and The action from there has been BULLISH

There is only PRICE VOLUME & TIME
SO these are things only worth looking at

There are more down side  failures then upside ones

The most significant thing is the the action has narrowed
and slowed up..

It does not look like significant Distribution

eg A TOP

and there are no divergences where they matter ( between SCALES )

It just looks like a dull period of consolidation
at smaller scales the narrowing into triangle shape is even more clear

Demand must meet supply
must meet distribution

KEY is it has to be absorbed
If it is to become a continuation pattern
of RE accumulation

At the Low of the Column with a B in it
lower prices were emphatically rejected

So that is an important Last point of significant Support
and very much confirmed by a chart one scale DOWN in size..

As activity returns
then direction will be very important..

What to do

atm
CHART says a lot sitting on sidelines
While most others happy to keep their $$ in and wait...

I think unless/ UNTILL the chart breaks down

The TREND IS  UP ( chart )
one buys now ( WITH stops )
OR WAITS FOR the move TO BEGIN


seems mkts esp at smaller scales  ( traders )
are having failed topping patterns SO far  

RE ACCUMULATION 

ATM THE ACTION IS *NARROW* COMPARED TO THE LAST CONSOLIDATION

NARROW dull etc facilitates ?    

Motorway


DIVERGENCES ON TIME FRAME CHARTS
arise because the action is always changing speed ( time frames )
while your charts are not..
so sometimes they are real and others times 100% MEANINGLESS Artefacts ( man-made )


----------



## brty (19 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

motorway,



> There is only PRICE VOLUME & TIME
> SO these are things only worth looking at




If time is one of the things you consider important, then why do you use point and figure charts that take time out of the equasion??

brty


----------



## motorway (19 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

That leads to a large OFF TOPIC DISCUSSION ( XAO )

THE P&F CHART is a  chart of the TIME INTRINSIC of the instrument
it is the thing itself

Time of the clock is intrinsic to the Earth's movement around the sun

THERE such time has meaning it is a continuous variable
eg you can divide that movement into any intervals of fractions of a second

The time intrinsic to a stock or market is not of the clock
1 min bars 5 min bars  what about .000001 second bars ?

They have no meaning ... They are distortions of Intrinsic Time
and create spurious patterns

XAO moves how it does when it does

JUST
as the Earth around the sun does

USE the time applicable and intrinsic for each case...
A P&F chart of the EARTH is a CLOCK that goes tic tic tic
A P&F chart of the XAO has another very different intrinsic tempo

use one for the other and you find out when and why TIME is an illusion .

Motorway


----------



## motorway (21 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

While price takes time to move, time alone does not move price.
----> What is the logic for recording price, when it does not move for a given unit of time? etc _In Time FRAMES _

clock time is continuous on a CLOCK ( EARTH ETC )
BUT is discrete and discontinuous as a TIMe FRAME on A CHART

STOCKS AND MARKETS do not have orbits in fixed speeds up and down..

The pattern at the top of the chart is significant
The action is going sideways ( *The action.*.. Charts with time frames just go sideways ALL THE TIME )

So it is a TOP of something
The thrust of the buying waves shortened

Supply coming in at lower levels with more urgency and/or
rest and consolidation --> demand taking a breather

THE COLUMN WITH THE B in it very decisive
a rejection of  thrust UP & all that ground given back.



> Pricing flows originate in momentary micro-bursts of volatility that kill liquidity and displace pricing.
> 
> The better you can gauge this displacement, the smarter your next positions.




That was a significant  response to the action ( test )
That is a KEY POINT

*NOW It is a possible mid pattern reaction of an INVERSE FULCRUM*

So THE PATTERN is potentially  bearish  ( it is not complete )
and There are not higher highs in the next phase so far

So I am all ears for the bearish case... 

But WHERE is THE GOOD NEWS and should the chart ( INTRINSIC TIME ) become so dull. If this is a major TOP we should see GOOD NEWS and "Whooping UP"  facilitating distribution A WIDE mkt ( the chart really narrows and expands )

DOES THE ACTION take on a Different character ? since B

The action narrows and is not giving ground
There is demand seen at the bottom ( NOT OFF we would like to see demand OFF THE BOTTOM )

So that suggests the BULLISH case
of normal end of a LEG in A BULL MARKET ( too much doubt and not enough enthusiasm )

demand meets supply
some distribution
But reaccumulation and absorption

BUT as I said we could just wait

until the relationship between demand and supply becomes sufficiently unbalanced..One side is absorbed, differences of opinion resolved

and a movement triggers a cascade of contingent orders
BUT be READY !

Motorway


----------



## Donga (21 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sideways for a while now, Dubai scare shrugged off and if there was going to be correction it would have been in the past month or so. Global indicators slowly improve and unless we have some really bad news out of US expect we'll continue to drift until the New Year, i.e. bargain hunters to equal impatient traders. 

Mid January could be the time to be ready for another spurt.


----------



## nunthewiser (21 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well done Wysiwyg your call a cupla pages ago with the sideways chart has summed it up lately ........


----------



## Wysiwyg (21 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kryzz said:


> Found this to be an interesting Read, with re to the sym triangle.
> Will be watching reaction if/when price reaches the apex point, be it a break up or down from the triangle. Hugging the trendline atm, coming up to some resistance, interesting ew position too.



That is an interesting read thanks.



nunthewiser said:


> Well done Wysiwyg your call a cupla pages ago with the sideways chart has summed it up lately ........



They're everywhere. Never behaving exactly as they should.


----------



## brty (22 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

motorway,



> What is the logic for recording price, when it does not move for a given unit of time




I always thought markets were made up of people who bought and sold. When it comes to our market most participants participate during the hours the market is open, a set value of time. On each day the market is open for a set period (ASX) and the shares price varies during this time.

The real 'secret'  of trading is keeping it simple, by using available evidence. Time as in days or set hours (or some other time-frame) is important in knowing how the price acts/reacts. 

A meandering price has different meaning to a runaway price as the influence is reflected back on to the traders. In a rising market a runaway price will leave many trying/waiting to catch the upmove, whilst a meandering price will let everyone get aboard.

The market moves in rhythms and waves, time being an important aspect of the flow, not something only related to the size of moves by predetermined guesses (ie a box size), for my trading anyway, each to their own.

brty


----------



## motorway (22 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> The real 'secret'  of trading is keeping it simple




Exactly
why introduce Time ? Where it does belong ? to complicate things ?




> predetermined guesses




Exactly how do you know what time frame to use ? ( this is the real question see below )

Box size ?
*changes nothing*  really no need to guess.
How can it ?
Does anything real change when it is seen from different distances ?


think of what defines the top and bottom of a column
NOTHING that changes with a TIME FRAME

Something about the difference between moved base and time frame based !


Yes -->







> Time



 as in DURATION 







> is important



 in knowing how price  is acting.



> each to their own.




That goes without saying
I take it all posts are just for discussion and sharing and learning..

For the ( this ) Poster as much as anyone else.


If you look back in the thread there are a few charts I have posted 
They are only for discussion as all posts are.



> not something only related to the size of moves by predetermined guesses (ie a box size), for my trading anyway, each to their own.




Think about this How does box size change the market moves ?  

Tops and Bottoms are where they are 
and the distance between them does not change...
Again the difference between what Dupire calls time based and moved base

On time based YES it all changes with the TIME FRAMES ( slides in the P&F thread )

Time is not the problem ( From a P&F view  )We must have Time and USE Time.

It is Time frame that is the problem
Everything changes when you change time frame
because unlike the P&F chart * it is the Timeframe drawing the tops and bottoms of the bars !*

No matter what Box size or type I use
Demand and supply STILL and ONLY draws the tops and bottoms of the Columns...*Nothing REAL changes*

Motorway


----------



## nulla nulla (22 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Nasdaq, the DJIA and the XAO at respective closes for 21-12-09: The Nasdaq appears to be moving ahead with more confidence than the Dow while the XAO is languishing.


----------



## nomore4s (22 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> The Nasdaq, the DJIA and the XAO at respective closes for 21-12-09: The Nasdaq appears to be moving ahead with more confidence than the Dow while the XAO is languishing.




Nulla you might want to compare the XAO to some of the Asian exchanges, we aren't the only ones lagging behind the US.


----------



## nulla nulla (22 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How does it compare to the Dax and the Ftse?


----------



## brty (22 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

motorway,



> Exactly
> why introduce Time ? Where it does belong ? to complicate things ?




Umm, where do I start??

Time is important, it helps simplify things.

In my trading, time, linear time that the markets trade in, is vitally important.

If I implement a position then it needs to prove me right. If it doesn't, then bets off. With P&F time does not matter.

In the last week I have ended 2 positions that were going sideways, in P&F this would not have registered. In my trading assuming wrong until proved correct, I assumed wrong.

With P&F I would be down the gurgler, yet I got out of these positions with a couple of hundred $D+. (I still consider them a loss)  and a, pissed off.

As you consider any 'box size
to be important in P&F, it is instantly as useless as any other arbitrary point
considered. It is just a guess.

I go simply by price and time, human time, the real deal.

bye


----------



## nomore4s (23 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> How does it compare to the Dax and the Ftse?




Here nulla. FTSE, DAX, HSI, NIKKEI


----------



## brty (23 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi motorway,

Firstly I agree that this is OT, not the XAO thread that is in sideways motion, that I am currently out of the market.



> If the P&F is not moving why are you in the trade ?




I am in a trade simply because my indicators say to put a trade on, nothing else.



> If that is your method why would you ignore what the P&F is telling you !




umm, because my experience says it is not so, hey you have to go with what works.



> and here is a first point a charting method can be used for anything and anyway you like what makes you think you have to use it in some way that when it stops you have to stay in ?




Ummm, WTF?? could you explain this in english?? I do what works, not some eseroterical mumbogumo. Trading is simple, watch price over time ( human time), which way is the acceleration.



> All your questions are off topic so are my answers




Umm, again I'm in a blur. My questions are definately on topic, the XAO is in a sideways pattern.



> To use tools in an inept way is the practitioner not the tool
> Why stay in if Your method says to get out




I'm out, what is your point?? Clear english would help on this point, from you, that is.



> BUT IN ANY CASE THIS IS THE XAO THREAD




Ok, before we get WAY off topic, my point is that I think that human time is important, it has relevance, and my trading according to it seems to back me up (ie lots of wins). I think you have much to offer this forum, yet this little fallacy on time gets in your way of true market performance. 
I do not try to predict where the market will go. I simply go where the market is going. Time is of an essence. 

Should we start another thread???

I'm only a novice, I've only been following (and trading via shares and futures) the market for 30 years and made many mistakes in that time, what would I know??

Getting back to XAO, basically sideways. Classic technical advice would say consolidation before an up move. I'm prepared to be out of the market and wait, there is no rush.


----------



## motorway (23 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Brty

All the best for the festive season
and with your trading..



THIS *is* ALL off topic..

-----

Just been looking at the S&P500

_Now there is a tight range holding ground_
Nothing like the TOP in 2007/08 SO FAR

So no TOP there it is hard to see a TOP here
The difference is really STARK on that S&P chart

Motorway


----------



## akkopower (23 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

sideways, sideways. Maybe the little strength in the $US might make us a few points


----------



## brty (23 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi motorway,



> Nothing like the TOP in 2007/08 SO FAR




Why would you expect it to be similar???



> So no TOP there it is hard to see a TOP here
> The difference is really STARK on that S&P chart




Umm, could you explain this in English for us mere mortals??

I interpret this as "it's going sideways"

brty

PS to be helpfull, keep it simple.


----------



## motorway (23 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tops have certain characteristics

The  2007/08 had them

The action on the S&P500 now doesn't

*I am not expecting them to be the same*

I am Just comparing and looking at the behaviour of the range the S&P is in NOW

Motorway


----------



## brty (23 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

motorway,

perhaps we could discuss time here....

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18299

so that we don't go too far off topic. 



> Tops have certain characteristics
> 
> The 2007/08 had them
> 
> ...




Now if we agree, what is there to argue about???

PS, In my trading I'm not trying to predict where the market will go, It will go where it wants to, I only hope to hop on for the ride.


----------



## nulla nulla (23 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks for the additional graphs nomore4's. It appears that the DJIA, NASDAQ, FTSE and DAX are continuing to climb where the HANG SEN, NIKKI and the XAO have faltered. Although I note that the NIKKI has rebounded the most off it's recent correction.


----------



## Wysiwyg (23 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Another precision day bar ranging to the trendline. It isn't half obvious the market makers work in unison to achieve these feats.


----------



## nulla nulla (23 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So if it closes higher tomorrow is it considered an upward breakout?


----------



## lukeaye (23 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Another precision day bar ranging to the trendline. It isn't half obvious the market makers work in unison to achieve these feats.




Interesting observation.

What i find interesting is the constant rejections from that line each session.

It did not occur today? could this be the break?


----------



## Wysiwyg (23 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> So if it closes higher tomorrow is it considered an upward breakout?



Oh I don't think so and from my point of view there is the 4800 mark that has been rejected three times in the last 2 months that would be broken with serious volume.


----------



## Whiskers (24 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Oh I don't think so and from my point of view there is the 4800 mark that has been rejected three times in the last 2 months that would be broken with serious volume.




Hey Wysiwing, are you really not sure we'll break up?

Without all that 


brty said:


> ...eseroterical mumbogumo




 



motorway said:


> What to do
> 
> atm
> CHART says a lot sitting on sidelines
> ...






For me, I'm bottom picking, no stops... sure as the sun rises, and my 'magic' cycle analysis it's going up. 

From a more technical perspective, on the weekly chart, my olive, magenta and particularly blue line says so too.


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi there Whiskers. Hope you're winning the battles and have a resourceful new year. 


Whiskers said:


> Hey Wysiwing, are you really not sure we'll break up?



If it happens, it happens.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (24 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

'Twas the day before Christmas so not putting a lot of weight on this...


----------



## Sean K (24 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MS+Tradesim said:


> 'Twas the day before Christmas so not putting a lot of weight on this...



Yeah, beats 4800 looks very promising.


----------



## Logique (24 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Show the volumes with those charts - seasonally light, and as such easy to move the market, say if you wanted to rule off a good window-dressed quarter/calendar year. But am I being too cynical. Or maybe just bitter because I'm on the sideline and my system won't allow me to re-enter.
All the same, I'm not convinced by a market that's been at basically the same level for 6 weeks. You near-term bulls, name the catalysts to spur buyers into action in January?


----------



## Sean K (24 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> You near-term bulls, name the catalysts to spur buyers into action in January?



I am extremely bearish on the universe over the next 1-5 years, but something might pop up. 

Maybe Elvis will return.


----------



## Whiskers (24 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> You near-term bulls, name the catalysts to spur buyers into action in January?




Who me!?  :xmaswave

Well if I have to pin it on one single event... I've been tipping a slightly stronger USD and weaker AUD for some time, having the effect of better returns for our large export, especially resource sector.

So far so good. I think it still has a bit to run yet.


----------



## Donga (24 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> You near-term bulls, name the catalysts to spur buyers into action in January?




Sideways for three months, so there went the correction and don't need charts to interpret that. During this time US "came out of recession" and they seem to be chugging away. Our economy is outpacing the western world and Asia is outpacing everyone. Recent Reserve Bank analyses show how our balance of trade is --> Asia, and we know they need our minerals and energy. The resources sector has been drifting past few months as instos stashed up with SSPs and then sold off the ones they didn't want. Based on fundamental supply and demand futures for our miners I am very bullish for next year as demand continues to improve. Not sure about gold and can't predict world events but neither can charts. Best wishes all and good health.


----------



## nulla nulla (26 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Another positive finish on 24-12-2009 in the USA with the Nasdaq surging toward 2300 and the DJIA breaking through the 10,500 level. There appears to be a resurgance of confidence in the run up to the end of the U.S. fiscal year. Even our XAO seemed determined to hang onto 4800 on weak volumes.


----------



## jet328 (27 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> You near-term bulls, name the catalysts to spur buyers into action in January?




Not sure about Jan, but I think over the next few months we will have some 'good looking' economic numbers. When you are coming off a low base (especially YOY) its not hard to have good numbers. Also, there is still quite a bit of scepticism around


----------



## CanOz (27 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I gotta say I'm a little skeptical of the last week or so. Volume in the US was and has been really light. I unloaded everything on Thursday night before the holidays, and I'll stand aside until some nice setups appear again. I think the volume needs to come back to be more clear on the continuation of this corrective uptrend.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## DaveMac (2 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> I gotta say I'm a little skeptical of the last week or so. Volume in the US was and has been really light. I unloaded everything on Thursday night before the holidays, and I'll stand aside until some nice setups appear again. I think the volume needs to come back to be more clear on the continuation of this corrective uptrend.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...




Volume is always light around Decemeber end - all the big players are on holidays :santa:

Most major trend changes happen around March, and we've only just broken out of a consolidation pattern.  Not the time to be standing aside IMHO.


----------



## Wysiwyg (4 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone got an opinion on the declining volume in this breakout and resistance zones?


----------



## Whiskers (5 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Anyone got an opinion on the declining volume in this breakout and resistance zones?




On individual stocks, particularly smaller ones, I often see volume at low levels just before a breakout. My theory is shaky sellers have all sold out and buyers have to bid up to ask price to get their wares.

I suspect that is happening across the board with shaky sellers clearing their hand before the Xmas break and a few smart   buyers just starting to bid up a bit. 

Now, before the 'Bear' executioners come looking for a meal, my current prognosis based on my previously posted fourth wave triangle suggests the XAO should break resistance and go a bit higher... (a max of 5,233 by this theory), before a correction.


----------



## nomore4s (5 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Anyone got an opinion on the declining volume in this breakout and resistance zones?




The low volume is purely because of the Xmas period, nothing unusual. Volume should start to return this week, although I thought we would have seen a bit more volume today.

I think the breakout with some better volume could come tomorrow.


----------



## CanOz (5 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> although I thought we would have seen a bit more volume today.
> 
> I think the breakout with some better volume could come tomorrow.




Waiting for a US Lead this time NoMore? I was surprised too, especially given the strong commodity rally.

CanOz


----------



## nomore4s (5 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Waiting for a US Lead this time NoMore? I was surprised too, especially given the strong commodity rally.
> 
> CanOz




I think we're going higher now that's for sure.

With commodities looking very strong tonight I think we will break up through the 4900 resistance tomorrow(provided they hold on to the gains tonight). I think that may draw some volume out and cause a nice run. That's what I'm positioned for anyway.

I would then like to see some consolidation above that 4900 area, late this week or into next week.


----------



## nulla nulla (5 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A strong recovery on the DJIA and Nasdaq on the first day of trade for the 2010 U.S. fiscal year. More than offsetting the drop in the previous days trading being the last day of trade for the U.S. fiscal year 2009. 
Some fairly bold predictions in todays Sydney Morning Herald as to where the all ords will go over the next 18 months. NSW unemplyment to fall in the short term as advertised job vacancies increase.


----------



## gamefisherman (5 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A couple of ideas

1. The combined weighting of bhp, rio, the 4 big banks, woolies and a couple of others is enourmous, so any rises in these stocks can distort the real picture, 

2. Big Time traders are in the bahamas enjoying their well gotten gains last year and will return in mid Jan then volumes will rise again, and give us a real picture of what is happening, i would be very careful atm of going long on stocks

3. There is also a phenoma called the "Christmas rally" and it has happened this year

4. Ensure that you stick to your trading plan and have tight stops!!!!!!!

Best wishes


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm in belief that a regurgitative move is over-due. Diverging price and volume from what I have read can be a precursor to a correction.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This lil' evening star sure suggests a top hey. Not a high percentage of up days after them butt you never know in this illusion.


----------



## Annwn (6 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A look at the weekly chart

has broken previous high of 4,900 of Oct 09, approaching previous support of around 5000 area from Jul,Aug Sept of 08, 
? this will turn into a resistance level .

The daily chart looks less convincing today, have to wait until tommorrow to see if a evening star pattern forms

cheers


----------



## DaveMac (6 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> This lil' evening star sure suggests a top hey. Not a high percentage of up days after them but you never know in this illusion.




... with so many people waiting to sell at 5000, maybe the market will just never get there.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Annwn said:


> The daily chart looks less convincing today, have to wait until tommorrow to see if a evening star pattern forms



Yes a bit premature from me. Reading too much into things again.


----------



## nomore4s (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Probably due for some sort of down days.

This is what I want to see play out, but we'll see what happens.


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking back, the last time the 250 DEMA crossed up over the 250 EMA was in October 2003. On most occasions the market has gone on with it. After  a pullback I like to believe a circa 45  ° trend trajectory will be maintained.


----------



## Whiskers (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> After  a pullback I like to believe a circa 45  ° trend trajectory will be maintained.




Agree... tis also what I meant earlier...



Whiskers said:


> Now, before the 'Bear' executioners come looking for a meal, my current prognosis based on my previously posted fourth wave triangle suggests the XAO should break resistance and go a bit higher... (a max of 5,233 by this theory), before a correction.




...a minor correction.

Just expanding my thinking, for me it looks like resource prices will continue to firm. The AUD/USD has had, I reckon, a corrective recovery of late and the next rally in the XAO (after a minor correction sometime soon) most likely will coincide with the next drop in the AUD/USD... ie better news out of the US.


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Just expanding my thinking, for me it looks like resource prices will continue to firm. The AUD/USD has had, I reckon, a corrective recovery of late and the next rally in the XAO (after a minor correction sometime soon) most likely will coincide with the next drop in the AUD/USD... ie better news out of the US.



I wonder how far away that first rate rise will be in the U.S. (question for the gold fish )


----------



## skc (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Looking back, the last time the 250 DEMA crossed up over the 250 EMA was in October 2003. On most occasions the market has gone on with it. After  a pullback I like to believe* a circa 45  ° trend* trajectory will be maintained.




How do you measure angles on a chart? The two axes are apples and oranges so there really isn't a fixed ratio... or is there a commonly accepted way of plotting?


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Just expanding my thinking, for me it looks like resource prices will continue to firm. The AUD/USD has had, I reckon, a corrective recovery of late and the next rally in the XAO (after a minor correction sometime soon) most likely will coincide with the next drop in the AUD/USD... ie better news out of the US.




So whiskers with your mighty powers of prediction you believe the AUD/XAO correlation thats been as close to 1:1 all last year is gonna breakdown and then reverse?


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> How do you measure angles on a chart? The two axes are apples and oranges so there really isn't a fixed ratio... or is there a commonly accepted way of plotting?



Hi, if you measure equal distances along the x and y axes from the point of the x,y axes then that hypotenuse is at an angle of 45 °.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Hi, if you measure equal distances along the x and y axes from the point of the x,y axes then that hypotenuse is at an angle of 45 °.




LOL!!

Here is the same chart with the same line on it. Ones about 45 d the other about 30 d.

Which one should I use????


----------



## Whiskers (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> I wonder how far away that first rate rise will be in the U.S. (question for the gold fish )




Good question. 

Did you know that's actually a crystall ball I'm inside!!! 

Could be as much as two or three months away yet, but I expect the market will get a fair jump on a rate rise and start moving ahead of it. With their numbers still a bit fickle I think it's pretty obvious the FED will err on the side of caution and delay.



Trembling Hand said:


> So whiskers with your mighty powers of prediction you believe the AUD/XAO correlation thats been as close to 1:1 all last year is gonna breakdown and then reverse?




Hello TH, well two points. Firstly a correlation is just that... an historic corelation. They change, break and re-align all the time.

Secondly, what comes first, or rather what drives what? Does the market stay at a certain level to stay in some 'correlation' regardless of the fundamentals or does the correlation change when there is a substantial change in the fundamentals. Surely you're not saying that correlation is a given... a golden rule?

Maybe you can eloberate on why you think it's so important and won't break down.


----------



## motorway (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Hi, if you measure equal distances along the x and y axes from the point of the x,y axes then that hypotenuse is at an angle of 45 °.





your x axis is static DISCRETE time intervals
your y axis is CONTINUOUS  price intervals

ONLY if you keep the scale constant ON BOTH is your 45 possibly relevant

BOTH !

so many mm ( inches ) per price unit
so many mm  ( inches ) per price unit

AS GANN  did..

BUT that still won't work out optimally




Motorway


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Hello TH, well two points. Firstly a correlation is just that... an historic corelation. They change, break and re-align all the time.
> 
> Secondly, what comes first, or rather what drives what? Does the market stay at a certain level to stay in some 'correlation' regardless of the fundamentals or does the correlation change when there is a substantial change in the fundamentals. Surely you're not saying that correlation is a given... a golden rule?
> 
> Maybe you can elaborate on why you think it's so important and won't break down.




Oh they break & peter out all the time. Whenever the Global Macro boys break them. Hope your accounts big enough to handle betting against them, the bank of Britain's wasn't big enough.


----------



## Whiskers (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Hi, if you measure *equal distances along the x and y axes from the point of the x,y axes *then that hypotenuse is at an angle of 45 °.






Trembling Hand said:


> LOL!!
> 
> Here is the same chart with the same line on it. Ones about 45 d the other about 30 d.
> 
> Which one should I use????




Excuse me for buying in here Wysiwyg, but I'm pretty stoaked on caffine atm, it's raining cats and dogs, nothing much else to do and I'm feeling pretty cocky :.

*TH, you aint got equal distances on each axis!!!*

With all due respect my understanding and the way I interpreted it, Wysiwyg made that reference to his chart... which to me looked near 45deg.

*PS:* I see Motorway has 'polietly'  made the correct point/arguement... but a simple person like me  saw it simply as a simple point of reference.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I'm feeling pretty cocky :.




Good luck.


----------



## MRC & Co (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Just expanding my thinking, for me it looks like resource prices will continue to firm. The AUD/USD has had, I reckon, a corrective recovery of late and the next rally in the XAO (after a minor correction sometime soon) most likely will coincide with the next drop in the AUD/USD... ie better news out of the US.




But wouldn't continued resource strength favour continued strength in AUD?  Or is AUD going to become the other side of the USD (long) trade, alongside other global currencies (Euro, JPY, GBP etc)?  And the US 'recovery' story going to continue to booster resource/equity/USD strength?

Just trying to work out what angle your coming from....


----------



## Whiskers (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes MRC & Co, resource strength will favour the AUD, but having said that, I think that we're in the early stages of another shift in equilibrium and given the relative size of the economies and that the money shifting into the USD will come from a range of currencies, I'd expect comparitevly less would leave the AUD than most others because of the strength of our economy largely because of resource prices.

But having said that the US can absorb and will attract a lot of cash when those rates start to rise, but I think their economy is a bit further away from demanding huge amounts of resources, ie their growth will be slower, and looking further into my crystal ball, based on their growing incapacity to pay their way, I suspect they will have a modest recovery before they fall again on a lower standard of living and fade further as the predominate world economy. 

Assuming the US lowers their standard of living as I expect they will, their market will not 'crash' again, a year or two down the track rather tend to slide away a bit relative to  Aus and China for example.

But getting back to the near future, a matter of finding/feeling the equilibrium, Aus can mine a relatively huge amount, export it to China to produce more than it's growing domestic market can consume and export the balance to other countries including the US where the net effect will be greatly in favour of Aus and China, ie probably just enough to sustain the US while they think about their debt and standard of living for a year or two.


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Annwn said:


> The daily chart looks less convincing today, have to wait until tommorrow to see if a evening star pattern forms




Well the evening star pattern didn't eventuate. Thought it was a chance anyway.


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Good question.
> Did you know that's actually a crystall ball I'm inside!!!



The upside down crystal ball is exactly what I was thinking. == (laughs + ROF())

No it's all good from my point of view Whiskers. I read your posts (gawd knows why  ).

 I might give scalping on coin flips a go.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> I might give scalping on coin flips a go.




Isn't that something else you already failed @ :


----------



## nulla nulla (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Isn't that something else you already failed @ :




Is that the same as playing two-up at the casinos?


----------



## wintermute (13 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As unpopular as my XAO posts seem to be, I've returned   I've been virtually inactive in the market since Mid 2007 (and my losses reflect that). My problem is I predict stuff then fail to act on it. 

First I want to attach a screenshot of a post from another site which I made in Sep 2008.  Why? because the chart I'm going to post is based on the one in that chart (which was in turn based on the one that I used for predicting a market crash towards then end of 2007/early 2008 around 10 months before.  It probably gives me little extra credibility but I feel compelled to blow my own trumpet so to speak   What did I say in that post?  That I predicted we would not see the XAO return to 5000 until early 2010... I also felt that it would bounce off it and head back down again. Note that the prediction about the market bottom was out a bit but not by a long way date wise (about 3 weeks) the actual drop was much more severe than I expected though, more rapid and deeper hence the failure to pick the date and the value. 

Well I've updated that chart and have some new thoughts on it.  so the second chart is the current one (or at least at a week or so ago, since it is monthly it makes no difference). 

Here were my Musings on it that I made a few weeks ago (on the second chart) at another forum I post at (note I haven't been posting anywhere for some time, having a now two year old has kept me somewhat busy  ) 

**********************************************************
I've been basically an ostrich lately and only occasionally looking at my stocks only to find not much has changed (ie they still suck and I've still lost lots of money). I decided to pull out my trusty old long term voodo chart of the XAO once again.... interestingly it is still holding up. This is an evolved version of the one one I have posted here quite a few times in the past. Is it really voodoo? Probably.. but I look for patterns nothing more... I tend to agree with the comment from the OP about 5000 being important (if for no other reason that it being a psychological point) but see below for some hypothesizing on it.

Anyway attached is my long term graph with some horizontal lines which correspond to the points where the XAO fell back below the long term upper trend line, in 1987 and in 2008. Note that after the 87 crash the XAO blipped above that point (approx 1500) about 21 months after the level was broken. Also consider that the 1987 crash was much quicker and steeper than the 2007/2008 one, so they can't be directly compared (the first glaring difference in this comparison is that the bottom trend line wasn't hit in the intital fall in 1987)...

Now the next horizontal line is at 5000 which is the point that the XAO dropped below the upper trend line again in Aug 2008. it is now 17 months later and we are approaching that line. The interesting thing is that it took 6 years before the XAO went above and stayed above that fateful 1500 mark.

Can we expect something similar again this time around? My guess is we will bounce off (perhaps briefly piercing it) that 5000 line and head back towards that bottom trend channel. Maybe not rapidly, but I think we will quite probably bounce between the 5000 mark and that lower trend line for a few more years. I hope I'm wrong, but I really don't think that the world is out of the woods yet! and our markets recovery (my stocks excluded) has been a little faster than I would have expected.

Don't get me wrong, out of all of the markets in the world, I think ours is probably in one of the strongest positions, but me thinks it is too early to be hoping for another bull market.

Anyway just my musings

Tony. 
**********************************************************

So feel free to ignore, but I thought I'd put it out there  

Tony.


----------



## Logique (14 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting analysis wintermute. Very close on the low last year.
I take it you see 5000 as a psychologically significant barrier, such that the current up leg wouldn't proceed to your upper channel at ~ 5700. Certainly the index would have run a long way in a single leg if it did reach that level this time.


----------



## surfziggy (14 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

http://www.minyanville.com/articles...r-minyanville/index/a/25839/from/25839?page=2


----------



## wintermute (14 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Logique, yes my thinking is that the 5000 mark will be a psychological barrier, but also that the market tends to react in the same ways over and over again, I'm basing the bounce off 5000 (and it could well be a bit above that) on what happened after the 87 crash, simply looking at patterns and trying to predict based on what has happened before.  The two crashes are quite different however in the way they played out so it is difficult to say with any certainty or accuracy what will happen (at least with the methods I am using, a mathematician or statistician may be able to do a more accurate analysis). 

Starkler at TS posted this link http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-aftermath-of-secular-bear-markets-2893.html after my post which seems to show that what I was predicting is somewhat typical in the aftermath of a bear market.  

As with anything whether or not it plays out that way only time will tell! But I personally don't believe in efficient markets and do believe that there are patterns (mostly caused by over-reactions)..... One thing I've yet to decide though is how much (if at all) charting and technical analysis tends to re-inforce those patterns.  That is whether those patterns are there because people look for them and act on them (ie technical traders) or whether it is simply the way it is and the act of observing the patterns (and perhaps acting on them) has a minimal effect on the market at large.  

Fat lot of good it has done me, as I've never been confident enough in my own predictions to act on them, if I had have been I probably would have made a tidy profit  

edit: and yes I'm thinking we won't see that upper trend channel line hit for some time yet possibly a few years, but I'm certainly hoping I'm wrong!!  

Tony.


----------



## Trembling Hand (14 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wintermute said:


> One thing I've yet to decide though is how much (if at all) charting and technical analysis tends to re-inforce those patterns.  That is whether those patterns are there because people look for them and act on them or whether it is simply the way it is and the act of observing the patterns (and perhaps acting on them) has a minimal effect on the market at large.




Or what about because of the myriad of TA patterns known to traders they will always be able to back fit the past and therefor fool themselves into thinking that they are predicting the future ?


----------



## wintermute (14 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Or what about because of the myriad of TA patterns known to traders they will always be able to back fit the past and therefor fool themselves into thinking that they are predicting the future ?




Yep agree, all too easy to do, however if you look at my original post from Sep 2008 I think I did pretty well (or perhaps I just fluked it) in both predictions of the bottom being in 1st April 2009 (was actually about 3 weeks earlier because it fell off a cliff a little more than I anticipated) and that we would not see 5000 again until early 2010 (and we have hit 4950 in the first couple of weeks of January 2010).  This all using a VERY long term graph, and what appears to stand up as a long term channel that is the normal range in which the market stays. 

There is no doubt that between the first time I posted this chart in 2007 (or perhaps late 2006) and was predicting an 87 style crash, and NOW I have adjusted the trend channel to fit to the current conditions, until we had that low in March 09 I didn't have a recent reference point with which to get the trend channel positioned _accurately_, It was like a giant lever with small adjustments making very big differences to where it sits in the current day. 

Do you think I'm fooling myself?  

Tony.


----------



## Trembling Hand (14 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wintermute said:


> Do you think I'm fooling myself?
> 
> Tony.




Well done mate. Maybe next time step up and throw a dollar or two at it.


----------



## wintermute (14 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



surfziggy said:


> http://www.minyanville.com/articles...r-minyanville/index/a/25839/from/25839?page=2




I don't like his prediction no 3 at all!! but at least it is the DJIA.. I do personally think the US is a time bomb, but I like to (perhaps foolishly) think that if it does explode, our market will not follow them all the way into oblivion.  The H&S he talks about does show up (kindof) on a weekly chart, but not if you use a log scale as I prefer to for long range charts.  My personal feeling is a non-log chart over a long time period gives a very distorted picture. 

Tony.


----------



## wintermute (14 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Well done mate. Maybe next time step up and throw a dollar or two at it.




Story of my (Trading) life TH.  The number of times I've said now would be a good time to buy (or sell) but haven't actually done it is scary (all easy with hindsight of course).   Things fell apart somewhat when I went back to full time work though... compounded when my Daughter was born. 

I think I need to throw away my old ways and become a little more mechanical, set (and act on) realistic stops and just go for it.  I've often though about swing trading, but have traditionally been a buy and hold type.  I'll need to make the time though, which is the hardest part. On a few days leave at the moment and trying to get back into the swing of things  

Tony.


----------



## Logique (14 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks for the further info wintermute, and also to surfziggy for the link 'Ten Bold Predictions...for 2010' post on 14th Jan. 

Yes that prediction number three is one of the scariest things I've read in ages, i.e. that during 2010 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) will complete the right shoulder of a giant head-and-shoulders top on the weekly chart, and start to head south. 







> '...If history repeats, that puts us at around 5000 in 2010 and 1400 by January 2012, and it will feel like the end of the world-- just like the Mayans predicted...'


----------



## wintermute (15 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well I decided to take a further look at my chart and the attached is what I came up with.  If (and it's a big if) the market follows a similar pattern to the aftermath of the 87 crash, then My next prediction is a low of around 3700 about 17th Dec 2010. At that point it will hopefully bounce off the lower trend channel.... also if we see a repeat of 87 then it will probably be another month before we are at the top, which will be somewhat above 5000 it was 3% above the horizontal line in 87 which would be 5150... Lets see what happens  

I'm going to start re-evaluating my holdings. Having been through a number of corrections now, and not having cashed up I've missed a lot of opportunities... I want to be ready if it happens again  I am of course assuming that what I have posted pans out, and also that the stuff from surfziggy doesn't (though if it did obviously being out of everything would be a good idea!).  Somehow I don't think that we are going to see a 1929 style crash, but that's just my oppinion just as the above are just my musings  I'm not saying that this WILL happen, just that it is a possibility, and being aware of the possibility in advance can make the difference between being in a good position or a bad one  

Tony.


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Logique said:
> 
> 
> > You near-term bulls, name the catalysts to spur buyers into action in January?
> ...




So the miners must be having a great week as the AUD has taken a hammering lately. 

Hahahahahhahahahahahah 

:bananasmi


----------



## Whiskers (22 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> So the miners must be having a great week as the AUD has taken a hammering lately.
> 
> Hahahahahhahahahahahah
> 
> :bananasmi




Context mate... I say context!

That quote was on 24the Dec and as it turned out it was quite accurate.

As for now, I'm thinking this is a minor correction prompted by a number of things abroad... and a drop in gold coinciding with a fall in the AUDUSD. 

The future... I'm thinking the AUD will go lower, just starting the 'c' leg down. 

POG, count not exactly sure... probably a minor wave 4 or larger wave 2... either way don't see the POG falling much below current level, certainly not below USD1,000 at least for any significant period and other metals, copper for example, while having a pretty straight line recovery and stockpiles accumulating, are getting somewhere near where I would expect prices to level out and maybe correct a little bit.

Previously I suggested 5233 as the max for this larger degree wave up. Bottom line, I'm thinking the XAO has probably about done a minor wave 4 correction. My best guess atm, is the XAO will kick closer to 5200 before a more significant larger degree correction.

PS: I'll post a chart later.


----------



## Whiskers (22 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Talking about resources boosting the Aus economy and ultimately the XAO, don't forget sugar, a significant part of the Qld and even a bit of WA and NSW economy.

The recent best prices for a decade or so will start to flow through to more economic acticity by farmers soon... since they are generally a pretty conservative lot and their payments lag the market price.


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I've been tipping a slightly stronger USD and weaker AUD for some time, having the effect of better returns for our large export, especially resource sector.





Whiskers said:


> That quote was on 24the Dec and as it turned out it was quite accurate.
> 
> PS: I'll post a chart later.




In the mean time here is one of your "quite accurate" (hahahaha)24th Dec call on falling of the AUD while the XAO would go the other way.

Denial must be a wonderful thing!


----------



## Whiskers (22 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

TH... I repeat, context!

TH don't you know markets don't move in straight lines, ie they trend with impulses and corrections.

Note the original question.



> Originally Posted by Logique
> You near-term bulls, name the *catalysts* to spur buyers into action in January?




*Are you disputing that the 'catalyst' was a change of trend for the AUDUSD ie strengthening USD and that the XAO trend is rising and will continue to rise for the med term at least?*

Maybe that's too much to ask a scalper whose length of trade is only a few minutes or hours at most! As I pointed out earlier, many people in the real economy are pretty conservative and make decisions on longer term trends :


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Are you disputing that the 'catalyst' was a change of trend for the AUDUSD  and that the XAO trend is rising and will continue to rise for the med term at least?




You have to be kidding?? Your silly point all along is that the AUD would decline and make the exporters increase in profit and therefor share prices would rise. That is what you have been saying for months?

I have been saying that is WRONG. They are locked together. Now you are saying What? the XAO is rising and the AUD IS falling  Gives us all a good laugh why don't you and post a chart of them to illustrate it.


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Talking about resources boosting the Aus economy and ultimately the XAO, don't forget sugar, a significant part of the Qld and even a bit of WA and NSW economy.
> 
> The recent best prices for a decade or so will start to flow through to more economic acticity by farmers soon... since they are generally a pretty conservative lot and their payments lag the market price.



Oh and while I'm at it your sugar prices are rubbish as well. That chart is in USD. Thats no good to an Aussie farmer. Sugar was about $20 AUD a ton back in 2000 now 10 years later with all the increased inputs some by 300% fuel, fertiliser etc, sugar is about $27 AUD. 

Don't expect them to be celebrating or increasing their Bentley purchases.


----------



## white_goodman (22 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> You have to be kidding?? Your silly point all along is that the AUD would decline and make the exporters increase in profit and therefor share prices would rise. That is what you have been saying for months?
> 
> I have been saying that is WRONG. They are locked together. Now you are saying What? the XAO is rising and the AUD IS falling  Gives us all a good laugh why don't you and post a chart of them to illustrate it.




served and pwned


----------



## skc (23 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Talking about resources boosting the Aus economy and ultimately the XAO, don't forget sugar, *a significant part of the Qld and even a bit of WA and NSW economy.*




Sorry couldn't help but rub it in a bit here. Sugar is a $1.75b industry to the Aus economy. The Aus economy itself is ~$1T. Unless by significant you mean 0.175%....

http://www.dpi.qld.gov.au/26_6730.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Australia


----------



## Whiskers (23 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> You have to be kidding?? Your silly point all along is that the AUD would decline and make the exporters increase in profit and therefor share prices would rise. That is what you have been saying for months?
> 
> I have been saying that is WRONG.*They are locked together*. Now you are saying What? *the XAO is rising and the AUD IS falling*  Gives us all a good laugh why don't you and post a chart of them to illustrate it.




What is locked together... the AUD and the XAO... or profits?

Either way it's rubbish. none of them are 'locked together'.



Trembling Hand said:


> Oh and while I'm at it your *sugar prices are rubbish as well*. *That chart is in USD*. Thats no good to an Aussie farmer. Sugar was about $20 AUD a ton back in 2000 now 10 years later with all the increased inputs some by 300% fuel, fertiliser etc, sugar is about $27 AUD.
> 
> Don't expect them to be celebrating or increasing their Bentley purchases.




Well TH, I came from a cane farming background and live in a significant cane growing area and I can assure you farmers do track the sugar price in USD since their market is export and the international market price is quoted in USD. Furthermore they also note the AUDUSD trend re any further gain or loss through currency conversion. The price rise of the last year or so has lifted farm incomes from generally breakeven to a healthy return again. 

Fertiliser costs peaked early 09 and Potassium in particular has fallen back quite a bit since. Costs are continually being minimised through efficiency and competition, eg a lot are growing peanuts in rotation instead of small crops to increase soil organic nitrogen in a crop cycle while still getting a cash return.

To illistrate that the XAO and AUDUSD don't travel in unison or 'locked together' as you seem to be suggesting, the following charts with the more recent highs and lows of the XAO marked on the AUDUSD chart clearly shows some significant trend opposition.

What I'm suggesting is the AUDUSD peaked mid last Nov, but I'm not convinced the recent high of the XAO is a peak yet.


----------



## Whiskers (23 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Sorry couldn't help but rub it in a bit here. Sugar is a $1.75b industry to the Aus economy. The Aus economy itself is ~$1T. Unless by significant you mean 0.175%....
> 
> http://www.dpi.qld.gov.au/26_6730.htm
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Australia




Hi skc, firstly those QDPI figures are about 18 months old... and no doubt you noticed the 'Service' sector is the largest by GDP, but mining and agriculture are about 2/3rds of our exports.

Probably the most significant thing to note here is the Service sector relies on the Primary sector, mining and agriculture, and to some extent the Manufacturing sector (what's left of it) for a significant amount of their work. 

A poor primary and manufacturing sectors = the Aus economy suffers through higher unemployment and lower income, savings and investment = starved service sector.

A couple of exceptions to this formula are entertainment and education. But while they are both rising industries in AUS they too suffer if the primary production sector stumbles.

PS:Sugar and agriculture in general are the backbone of much of rural Qld and while I don't have the numbers at hand is more labour intensive than mining which is more capital intensive and consequently every agriculture dollar translates into a higher proportion of $'s injected straight back into the local community.


----------



## Wysiwyg (23 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Probably the most significant thing to note here is the Service sector relies on the Primary sector, mining and agriculture, and to some extent the *Manufacturing sector (what's left of it) *for a significant amount of their work.



Noticeably less hey. Much goods are manufactured in other countries now as Australia's cost to manufacture goods is excessive (especially wages) in comparison to other countries. However processing raw materials and energy sources has boosted significantly this century and will continue to be an employment strength in the future. The raw materials just have to be drilled, blasted, excavated, end-loaded and trucked or railed to port or to a processing plant for refinement. 

What's your thoughts on the possibility of there being a see-saw effect with Chindia and USA? Like one goes up and the other goes down and both can't have high economic growth together. Now that would be a super bull market but unlikely to happen.


----------



## Logique (23 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Note the original question.
> *Are you disputing that the 'catalyst' was a change of trend for the AUDUSD ie strengthening USD and that the XAO trend is rising and will continue to rise for the med term at least?*




Hi Whiskers. The $USD is certainly showing strength in early 2010 after the downtrend through 2009. And who knows, it may well follow through during this year. The Aust gold stocks index has been pulverised in the last couple of days, and is down on the year, while inversely the $USD index vs basket of currencies  has been up. No question in my mind that commodity prices respond to the $USD. 

I find that a lower Australian dollar vs $USD - favourable impact on exporters profits - seems to occupy investors minds more at company reporting time.

The $USD strength does indeed seem to have been a major catalyst in the new year, so this was a good call. Add into that in recent days President Obama's call for stricter controls on US banks, which caused the US market to tank, and again overnight, which we'll see here on Monday. And a third factor, the fear of the Chinese economy overheating during 2010.   



> ..that the XAO trend is rising and will continue to rise for the med term at least?



Yes I'll get onboard with that proposition, but I don't expect it to be a straight-line increase. Near term I would not be surprised to see XAO retrace to within range 4500 - 4600.


----------



## skc (23 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Hi skc, firstly those QDPI figures are about 18 months old... and no doubt you noticed the 'Service' sector is the largest by GDP, but mining and agriculture are about 2/3rds of our exports.
> 
> Probably the most significant thing to note here is the Service sector relies on the Primary sector, mining and agriculture, and to some extent the Manufacturing sector (what's left of it) for a significant amount of their work.
> 
> ...




Not sure about all these double counting and secondary flow on effects. We will be debating about the size of industries and what's more important until the cows come home. Not saying the sugar industry isn't important or doing a great job... I love my sugar. But the bottom line is... <0.2% just doesn't fit the general understanding of being significant. 

And since this is the XAO thread, I'd go out on a limb and say.. if they say the sugar industry will treble in size in the next 12 months, I doubt it will light a fire under the XAO.

Back to topic.


----------



## satanoperca (23 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi,

Lots and lots of commentary on the XAO. 

Some things to add.

1) Weekly Chart
2) MACD, ROC, RSI, SKOL indicators - your choice
3) Type A Bearish Divergence across all the indicators
4) False breakout from sym triangle
5)Apex of triangle drag price towards it 
6) Fridays Dow close, ouch

The next leg is down, the uptrend is exhausted.

Hold onto your hats.

Cheers


----------



## Whiskers (23 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> What's your thoughts on the possibility of there being a see-saw effect with Chindia and USA? Like one goes up and the other goes down and both can't have high economic growth together. Now that would be a super bull market but unlikely to happen.




Haven't factored India into my equation very much yet Wysiwyg. Probably because of all the political and social factional friction... they don't seem to be able to get their act together as effectively as China has done.

But certainly if they can get it together while China is charging and the USA still has a bit of a sting, It would be a Super Bull. But, I can't see that happening any time soon.



skc said:


> And since this is the XAO thread, I'd go out on a limb and say.. if they say the sugar industry will treble in size in the next 12 months, I doubt it will light a fire under the XAO.
> 
> Back to topic.




By 'significant' I don't mean large, but significant in the sense that it's the foundation or backbone of most of coastal queensland. It has been there for decades and has been the foundation on which other industries like mining and tourism have been able to build upon more effectively, ie much of their infrastructure and 'Service Industry' has been built up and supported by sugar over the decades while mining projects come and go and tourism waxes and wanes.

But your right, sugar alone isn't going to light up the XAO... all I am suggesting is that when the foundation of a community is solid and healthy it lends extra strength and confidence for the community the Service Sector  and other industries when they thrive.


----------



## Whiskers (23 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Yes I'll get onboard with that proposition, *but I don't expect it to be a straight-line increase.* Near term I would not be surprised to see XAO retrace to within range 4500 - 4600.




Indeed, it will be a testing time ahead. 

As you mention, the Obama effect is going to be important. He has been critised for too much talk and little action. Wall streets initial reaction certainly hasn't taken kindly to his tighter finance industry controls or health care... but I suspect the rest of the world and the general public will embrace tighter controls and a more empathetic US. 

I reckoned that the world financial crisis would have been substantially mitigated if Bush had followed through with his rhetoric, and I suspect that Obama has concluded that if the US doesn't do it now it risks an encore and going down the tube altogether with the wrath of the rest of the world. Better to muzzle things a bit to stay in the game a bit longer than risk getting replaced altogether.

I'm thinking the tighter Chinese lending controls is also a good thing in the longer term. A bit of a double whammy both coming together, but I'll wait and see for a couple of days as to whether a more significant reversal has started... ie I'll let Wall street have a day or two to get over their chokeing cough and let reality settle back in.


----------



## Aussiest (23 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I'll wait and see for a couple of days as to whether a more significant reversal has started... ie I'll let Wall street have a day or two to get over their chokeing cough and let reality settle back in.




That's what i'm thinking. Am guestimating that DOW and XAO may experience upswing on Mon, Tues, due to severe fall (DOW ~ 500 points in 3 days), i'm looking at wed, thurs for a clearer picture.

The thing that gets me is that our reporting season this quarter may not be so bad (TBC of course). What got us through the 3rd and 4th quarters last year was "better than expected" data - let's see if it holds this time round :dunno:


----------



## lioness (24 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiest said:


> That's what i'm thinking. Am guestimating that DOW and XAO may experience upswing on Mon, Tues, due to severe fall (DOW ~ 500 points in 3 days), i'm looking at wed, thurs for a clearer picture.
> 
> The thing that gets me is that our reporting season this quarter may not be so bad (TBC of course). What got us through the 3rd and 4th quarters last year was "better than expected" data - let's see if it holds this time round :dunno:




Tuesday no trading as Australia Day is a national public holiday. Come back Wednesday which may be worse for us!!


----------



## Aussiest (24 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



lioness said:


> Tuesday no trading as Australia Day is a national public holiday. Come back Wednesday which may be worse for us!!




Oops, yeah, good point! I'm used to working on public holidays, so never factor them in as 'holidays'. Could be worse for us. DOW might kick up Mon night, but overall sentiment seems bearish... Still be interested to see how our reporting season will effect the overall market though.


----------



## nulla nulla (24 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In my opinion the DOW will fall from here as the financial share holders pull their money out and stay out of the market until they find somewhere else to put it. For this we can thank Barak Obama for shooting his mouth off about what he wants to do to the big U.S merchant banks. Stupid thing is he has to get it past congress first and given they lost the "kenedy" seat I doubt he will have enough support. None-the-less, the damages is done and a retrace has started.

While Swan has assured the Australian public there is no need for such drastic action here, the initial reaction of the market is to follow the U.S lead and off load their bank shares. Given the opportunistic actions of the big 4 during the crisis of swallowing competition and consolidating their local positions (as well as expanding internationaly where bargains have arisen), I doubt we really need to savage the banks shares as much as they have and will be.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It will be a bit like Haiti, shock, then in a few days the bad guys, shorters and others will come out.

gg


----------



## nulla nulla (24 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> It will be a bit like Haiti, shock, then in a few days the bad guys, shorters and others will come out.
> 
> gg




Yep, then the margin lenders will get their calls to cough up some dollars to reduce the gearing levels or sell off to cover their positions and there will be a further sell down , then the bargain hunters will step in and push prices up a little.


----------



## satanoperca (24 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Purely from a technical perspective, will the gaps from the last two days trading and potential gap down on Monday after the falls on the Dow on Friday be filled in the coming weeks.

Going back through the years I cannot find another period where there has been three consecutive gap down days.

This is either a knee jerk reaction to China and Obama or the start of a major correction.

Either way, it would seem difficult for the market to gain enough momentum in the coming months to push back up to 5000.

Yes, I short the market and no I'm not a really bad guy.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



satanoperca said:


> Purely from a technical perspective, will the gaps from the last two days trading and potential gap down on Monday after the falls on the Dow on Friday be filled in the coming weeks.
> 
> Going back through the years I cannot find another period where there has been three consecutive gap down days.
> 
> ...




Sorry mate, there was a comma between bad guys and shorters.

Shorters are not bad guys.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From the opening it looks as if it will be down between 1 and 1.5% by the end of the day.

Folk will wait for Wall St.tonight, and Wednesday will see some movement either way.

gg


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (25 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Folk will wait for Wall St.tonight, and Wednesday will see some movement either way.
> 
> gg





Yes, and so will Thursday, and Friday, and every other trading day for that matter.


----------



## Sean K (25 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> Yes, and so will Thursday, and Friday, and every other trading day for that matter.



The charts don't exactly match BN.... or do they? Also, China has been a big influence on Australia the past year or so also, but again, just a hunch.


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (25 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What exactly are the charts meant to match?


----------



## Sean K (25 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> What exactly are the charts meant to match?



Sorry, I must have said something confusing.

Can you put up a chart of the DJI and XAO of the past 10 years? Do they match? Do we follow them day by day? I thought that you were suggesting that we blindly follow the US..


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (25 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ahh nope.. not sure why you assumed that.

GG made a post stating "Folk will wait for Wall St.tonight, and Wednesday will see some movement either way."

I was commenting that we would also see movement on Thursday, Friday etc... 

(Being sarcastic, - yes GG, thats correct, there will be movement in the stock market... perhaps some T\A of WHERE the market will move would assist..)


----------



## nulla nulla (28 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*DOW +41.87 *+0.41% at 10,236.16. *NASDAQ +17.68 *+0.80% at 2,221.41.

IMO the XAO should have a half reasonable bounce today given the oversell yesterday. However, given the increasing divergence between the DOW and the XAO since October 2009, what is more likely to happen today is the XAO will jump a little on open (or soon after) then fade and fall back to only a small gain.


----------



## Broadway (28 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> *DOW +41.87 *+0.41% at 10,236.16. *NASDAQ +17.68 *+0.80% at 2,221.41.
> 
> IMO the XAO should have a half reasonable bounce today given the oversell yesterday. However, given the increasing divergence between the DOW and the XAO since October 2009, what is more likely to happen today is the XAO will jump a little on open (or soon after) then fade and fall back to only a small gain.




I luv a near term prediction, should be alot more of them. Too many bizarre 5 year charts that no-one would ever trade from. The late ES 15 point rally after the fomc is financials related with a drop in worldwide bonds. So the aussie banks should certainly apply up pressure today on the xao. But what about the energy/mining/gold sectors? Oil, copper and gold all went down last night with the rising USD and the fomc didnt seem to change their course. But there is bullish hope for these sectors, as my charts indicate some 'bottom volume' for oil and copper which may add to bullishness if these two turn up today. I also thought the AUD and EUR had bottom volume, so the USD may turn down soon as well.

And if the USD and USB both start falling together, the ES might climb for a few days yet. We'll see, Im still learning about all these inter-relationships.


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> IMO the XAO should have a half reasonable bounce today given the oversell yesterday. However, given the increasing divergence between the DOW and the XAO since October 2009, what is more likely to happen today is the XAO will jump a little on open (or soon after) then fade and fall back to only a small gain.




I think the XAO has been more in step with the rest of Asia than the States for some time now.


----------



## nulla nulla (29 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> *DOW +41.87 *+0.41% at 10,236.16. *NASDAQ +17.68 *+0.80% at 2,221.41.
> 
> IMO the XAO should have a half reasonable bounce today given the oversell yesterday. However, given the increasing divergence between the DOW and the XAO since October 2009, what is more likely to happen today is the XAO will jump a little on open (or soon after) then fade and fall back to only a small gain.




The XAO jumped a little at open, fell back, then climbed slowy for a small gain, we are definitely out of step with the DJIA and the Nasdaq, but don't seem to be aligned with the Asian sectors completely either. Bit of a limbo it appears as we try to swap from following the US. Hopefully we wont follow the US lead from last night.


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> The XAO jumped a little at open, fell back, then climbed slowy for a small gain, we are definitely out of step with the DJIA and the Nasdaq, but don't seem to be aligned with the Asian sectors completely either.




I don't know about that. As everyone has been looking at the US make new highs during Mid Jan on a continual steady up trend, only 7 trading days ago, Asia put in highs back Sep - Nov and hasn't show any life since. We started to go flat/roll over then too but then had a false & unconvincing break at the start of Jan. have a look at these charts a lot closer to our market than the S&P500 or NAS.


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Actually if you wanted to compare the XAO/XJO to anything I would be looking at these two risk/carry trade charts (I know others wouldn't )


----------



## explod (29 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting takes above.   If the Dow was to fall below 10,000 we will have some sparks I think.

I feel (and just a hunch) that the everyone outside of Wall Street has become sceptical of the Wall Street Jaw Boning Facade.   As you note T/H the other markets are finding thier own paths now, albeit, those paths pointing south to some degree.   However the sentiment of fear will only push these markets further down if the Dow was to plummet, or from another perspective, the few outside believers in Wall Street will add to the fuel.

Just my 2 cents.


----------



## Go Nuke (29 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think we could see a possible re test of 4500.
4500 is also the 200 Day MA  for extra support.

ALTHOUGH...the RSI hasn't been this low since the bottom on Mar 09!!

Oversold enough yet??


----------



## thresher (29 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Go Nuke said:


> Oversold enough yet??




yeah maybe its time for small bounce here to around 4750


----------



## Go Nuke (29 January 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Indeed I should have quoted IF it closes under 4600 in the coming days.


----------



## nulla nulla (4 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Actually if you wanted to compare the XAO/XJO to anything I would be looking at these two risk/carry trade charts (I know others wouldn't )




The two graphs certainly align with the xao better than most other charts. We lifted slightly on the back of two 100 point rises on the djia but it appears the djia has come back to alignment with the xao (and asia?).


----------



## Broadway (4 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> The two graphs certainly align with the xao better than most other charts. We lifted slightly on the back of two 100 point rises on the djia but it appears the djia has come back to alignment with the xao (and asia?).




They not only align, they lead. The xao lags these charts.
I think the beauty of those 2 charts is that the price moves on the last 2 major corners (10th dec bottom,10th jan top) actually preceeded the price moves in the ES and XAO(check your charts). These are leading market charts. You could have made a killing and all you needed was these 2 charts. And all you needed to make them a little better was volume, and you could have picked the recent bottom 3 days ago.

The problem is that as soon as these type of relationships get too well known, they might start to break down.


----------



## nulla nulla (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Go Nuke said:


> I think we could see a possible re test of 4500.
> 4500 is also the 200 Day MA  for extra support.
> 
> ALTHOUGH...the RSI hasn't been this low since the bottom on Mar 09!!
> ...




Possible support levels at 4400, 4300 and 3750. It will be interesting to see who is first to aadvise that they have "minimal" exposure to Europe. Not that it will make any difference. Once the panic sets in, we are in for a bumpy ride down.


----------



## nulla nulla (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Amazing what a difference half an hour can make on the market. This mornings finish in the U.S. would appear to indicate that some component of the traders think todays sell down was a buying opportunity. The djia comming from over 100 points down as the sell off continued, to rally in the last half hour to finish up 10.5 points. Interesting because I expected there to be a bigger component of "pulling the money out for the weekend" causing their market to close down. The bargain hunters evidently thought otherwise.

The finish: 

The DOW +10.05 +0.10% finishing on 10,012.23;
The NASDAQ +15.69 +0.74% finishing on 2,141.12;
The DAX -98.90;
The FTSE -78.39;
The Hang Seng -676.56; and
The Nikkei -298.89.


----------



## explod (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> Amazing what a difference half an hour can make on the market. This mornings finish in the U.S. would appear to indicate that some component of the traders think todays sell down was a buying opportunity. The djia comming from over 100 points down as the sell off continued, to rally in the last half hour to finish up 10.5 points. Interesting because I expected there to be a bigger component of "pulling the money out for the weekend" causing their market to close down. The bargain hunters evidently thought otherwise.




It is the work of what is called the PPP.  The Plunge Protection team.  They step in at stratiegic times to keep things rolling smoothly.   This morning by coming in late, and half an hour before the close the volume of the day almost equalled the day before. this intervention buying turned the chart candle into a copybook reverse candle.   I watched the last hour of it all.

Have to go up the street now, back to chat later


----------



## skc (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> It is the work of what is called the PPP.  The Plunge Protection team.  They step in at stratiegic times to keep things rolling smoothly.   This morning by coming in late, and half an hour before the close the volume of the day almost equalled the day before. this intervention buying turned the chart candle into a copybook reverse candle.   I watched the last hour of it all.
> 
> Have to go up the street now, back to chat later




Apparent there's some ECB meeting over the weekend to discuss some Greeks. So a short covering rally by the shorters to make sure they are not caught in case there are some resolutions coming out of such meeting.

Reminds me of Sept 08 when every weekend was so eventful.


----------



## Broadway (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> It is the work of what is called the PPP.  The Plunge Protection team.  They step in at stratiegic times to keep things rolling smoothly.   This morning by coming in late, and half an hour before the close the volume of the day almost equalled the day before. this intervention buying turned the chart candle into a copybook reverse candle.   I watched the last hour of it all.
> 
> Have to go up the street now, back to chat later




Before that rally there was 'bottom volume' in US etfs, stocks, oil, currencies, gold, usd, bonds, sycom etc etc.

Did the PPT do all that?


----------



## explod (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Before that rally there was 'bottom volume' in US etfs, stocks, oil, currencies, gold, usd, bonds, sycom etc etc.
> 
> Did the PPT do all that?




Almost everything runs on and follows stock market sentiment, without that the US have little else, no GDP of value, falling currency value (-100% from a few years back), banks going broke by the day, property still going down to nothing and so on adinfanitum.  It is all percieved market sentiment and so strong that most other world markets follow like blind sheep, up and down day by day.   So as it turns up or down all the other (so called) percieved little important bits follow. 

This may be a bit over simplistic perhaps, but on the track and sometimes required to help move the mist of c..pola out of the eyes.


----------



## skyQuake (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Before that rally there was 'bottom volume' in US etfs, stocks, oil, currencies, gold, usd, bonds, sycom etc etc.
> 
> Did the PPT do all that?




If they keep doing that I want to join! Picking the bottom in EVERY move must be profitable


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Almost everything runs on and follows stock market sentiment, without that the US have little else, no GDP of value, falling currency value (-100% from a few years back), banks going broke by the day, property still going down to nothing and so on adinfanitum.  It is all percieved market sentiment and so strong that most other world markets follow like blind sheep, up and down day by day.   So as it turns up or down all the other (so called) percieved little important bits follow.




*Explod it would be good if you could approach your conspiracy with a little more factual info and recall to give them some credibility.* 

looking at it from my info the day went like this,

Europe opens down after a failure of Asia to bounce off lows,

US futs drift down from the pressure. Currencies & Commods like wise.

30 mins before the US cash open the US futs are back to flat.

@ about 3:00am Melbourne time oil takes it in the neck. Near on 5% in 30 mins. rumours of every type start flying. 

Us equities follows oil down as do currencies and other commods.

Oil selling stops and starts to rise. Now at this point you have ALL longs for the week washed out and into cash and a stack of shorts holding and in profit. as well as ever Johny come lately just piling into new shorts for the last trade of the week. 

Story starts that the smashing of oil was a hedgie blowing up and having to liquidate. Whats gonna happen?? logically?? Shorts are going to be caught having to cover into the close of a raising market after a panic sell. result?

just another squeeze to some - to others a conspiracy.


----------



## explod (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> *Explod it would be good if you could approach your conspiracy with a little more factual info and recall to give them some credibility.*
> 
> Story starts that the smashing of oil was a hedgie blowing up and having to liquidate. Whats gonna happen?? logically?? Shorts are going to be caught having to cover into the close of a raising market after a panic sell. result?
> 
> just another squeeze to some - to others a conspiracy.




Yep, as I said, a bit oversimplistic, wonder about that "hedgie blowing up" though, wonder how that got going, or is there something to it T/H ?


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Yep, as I said, a bit oversimplistic, wonder about that "hedgie blowing up" though, wonder how that got going, or is there something to it T/H ?




see oil chart.

EDIT; Oh see last post in oil thread.


----------



## Naked shorts (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> see oil chart.
> 
> EDIT; Oh see last post in oil thread.




Please advise me as to what kind of retard would liquidate like that?

More like thats the rumor going around so all the muppets start buying into the move.


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> Please advise me as to what kind of retard would liquidate like that?
> 
> More like thats the rumor going around so all the muppets start buying into the move.




One thats been busted by a margin call. Plenty of records of your "retards" happening before.


----------



## nomore4s (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> Please advise me as to what kind of retard would liquidate like that?
> 
> More like thats the rumor going around so all the muppets start buying into the move.




um, a retard that is forced to sell out of their position maybe?


----------



## Naked shorts (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Plenty of big traders who are smart enough to scale out positions before they are hit by a margin call and are forced to drop 20k something lots on the market in 15mins. It just seem like such a stupid mistake to make that I'm finding it hard to believe... During the GFC, yeah, but not now.


----------



## explod (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> see oil chart.
> 
> EDIT; Oh see last post in oil thread.




Yep,  could liquidation be caused by fear also ?   and wonder why ?

Anyhow all rosy again, even gold and the HUI up on the close,  back buying rainbows, no worries.  And everyone knows what my sparkle is.  

Time for a stubbie on a satdy


----------



## nulla nulla (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Go Nuke said:


> I think we could see a possible re test of 4500.
> 4500 is also the 200 Day MA  for extra support.
> 
> ALTHOUGH...the RSI hasn't been this low since the bottom on Mar 09!!
> ...




Good call, where do you see it going next? (the above quote was posted at the end of January)
Incidently what settings did you use in incredible charts to display so far back? As per attached.


----------



## Go Nuke (6 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks Nulla Nulla.

Well as an investor I hope 4500 holds 

If it fails to hold above 4600, and  can't hold 4500, the chart looks to me like I would expect a test of 4300.

I could also see it trading in a range between 4500 & 4800.

I guess I'm particularly bearish as time has gone it this all feels like the GFC2 to me with Europes woes.

As for my settings they are just standard.Over about 1 year I think it was.


----------



## Frank D (7 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Yep, as I said, a bit oversimplistic, wonder about that "hedgie blowing up" though, wonder how that got going, or is there something to it T/H ?




I'm not sure  whether the 'Hedgie blew up' or not, I just think it was a 
pure technical play that was going to happen, as seen with most 
markets this Quarter (Indexes, Currenices & Commodities)

Price gets down into key technical levels and Volume will always appear.


----------



## skc (7 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Frank D said:


> I'm not sure  whether the 'Hedgie blew up' or not, I just think it was a
> pure technical play that was going to happen, as seen with most
> markets this Quarter (Indexes, Currenices & Commodities)
> 
> *Price gets down into key technical levels and Volume will always appear*.




Is there an underlying reason for that? Or is that simply observed? Or is it self-fulfilling because so many people watch those levels? Any ideas Frank?


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Looking back, the last time the 250 DEMA crossed up over the 250 EMA was in October 2003. On most occasions the market has gone on with it. After a pullback I like to believe a circa 45  ° trend trajectory will be maintained.



Continuing on from the previous post after the cross up and since it appears the pullback has slowed 
. 
With the Aust. market subdued today in wait of the US markets to open, I have cast an eye over two MA's that cross up infrequently but when they do a rally ensues (one occasion post 1987 it died). Over the last 20 years as can be seen on the wide angle shot, there has been 5 crosses up of these MA's. Only 2 this century and one as recent as January this year. The 1991 cross rallied for 8 months but was overcome  by a short 6 month bear market before flying again.

Am I saying the markets will rally again now this cross up has happened? I don't like to commit to any firm yesses. 

p.s. circa 45 ° is not appropriate 'cause angle is time frame dependent and a circa figure not good enough really.


----------



## nulla nulla (8 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Frank D said:


> I'm not sure  whether the 'Hedgie blew up' or not, I just think it was a
> pure technical play that was going to happen, as seen with most
> markets this Quarter (Indexes, Currenices & Commodities)
> 
> Price gets down into key technical levels and Volume will always appear.




Yep I work with that. Now all i need is to find the bloody door.


----------



## nulla nulla (8 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Continuing on from the previous post after the cross up and since it appears the pullback has slowed
> .
> With the Aust. market subdued today in wait of the US markets to open, I have cast an eye over two MA's that cross up infrequently but when they do a rally ensues (one occasion post 1987 it died). Over the last 20 years as can be seen on the wide angle shot, there has been 5 crosses up of these MA's. Only 2 this century and one as recent as January this year. The 1991 cross rallied for 8 months but was overcome  by a short 6 month bear market before flying again.
> 
> ...




One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind. The reality is the world financial markets need to wake and realise that we are all in this together. If one goes then we all go.


----------



## Whiskers (8 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Frank D said:


> I'm not sure  whether the 'Hedgie blew up' or not, I *just think it was a
> pure technical play that was going to happen*, as seen with most
> markets this Quarter (Indexes, Currenices & *Commodities*)
> Price gets down into key technical levels and Volume will always appear.




I think so too. I mentioned earlier that Base Metals had a fairly striaght line recovery without any significant correction. When they corrected the XAO was bound to correct.



Wysiwyg said:


> Am I saying the markets will rally again now this cross up has happened? I don't like to commit to any firm yesses.




YES, YES, YES!  

I just posted in the EW thread, I reckon we've about completed a larger degree wave '1' and a 'v' wave down for an 'a' of a correction (2).

I don't subscribe to the theory that there is much worse to come. My logic is that even if the 'authorities' are not aware of more significant issues, they will all certainly be looking much more closely than they were in 07 and react much more promptly.


----------



## Go Nuke (9 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For what its worth there has been a divergence between the XAO and the RSI.

Higher RSI, lower XAO.

I still expect to see some support on the 200 day MA.

9800 is the 200 day on the DJIA.


----------



## professor_frink (10 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

have moved recent off topic posts into a new thread that can be found here - 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18740

Cheers


----------



## nomore4s (10 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just a reminder that this thread is for analysis of the XAO, all general comments & banter is to be posted in this thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=531752#post531752

Thanks.


----------



## nulla nulla (10 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Just a reminder that this thread is for analysis of the XAO, all general comments & banter is to be posted in this thread.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=531752#post531752
> 
> Thanks.




Would you mind providing a definition of "Analysis" so I know which site I can post in without fear of incurring your wrath?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking at the XAO chart at midday Southern Time, it looks as if the instos have initially pushed up the price and offloaded a good many stocks in anticipation of a fall on the ftse and dj tonight.

gg


----------



## nulla nulla (12 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Looking at the XAO chart at midday Southern Time, it looks as if the instos have initially pushed up the price and offloaded a good many stocks in anticipation of a fall on the ftse and dj tonight.
> 
> gg




The volumes make this analysis questionable. The only share really pumping volumes in the last two days was tls and possibly a few reits that don't know whether they should be going up to match nta or falling because their yields are lower compared to their debt heavy borrowing days.


----------



## Broadway (12 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Looking at the XAO chart at midday Southern Time, it looks as if the instos have initially pushed up the price and offloaded a good many stocks in anticipation of a fall on the ftse and dj tonight.
> 
> gg




ES down 10 so far on the china/europe gdp news that just came out.


----------



## tunrida (13 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Just a reminder that this thread is for analysis of the XAO, all general comments & banter is to be posted in this thread.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=531752#post531752
> 
> Thanks.




tends to agree with Nulla - a rough count indicates there are another 4467 posts still to be shifted


----------



## Joe Blow (13 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> Would you mind providing a definition of "Analysis" so I know which site I can post in without fear of incurring your wrath?




The XAO Banter Thread is for more general commentary while this thread is primarily intended for technical analysis of the XAO.

The banter thread was created because those who wanted to discuss the XAO purely in terms of TA were getting frustrated that more general XAO chat was taking the thread off topic and the discussion was becoming less focussed and more confusing.


----------



## nulla nulla (16 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Joe Blow said:


> The XAO Banter Thread is for more general commentary while this thread is primarily intended for technical analysis of the XAO.
> 
> The banter thread was created because those who wanted to discuss the XAO purely in terms of TA were getting frustrated that more general XAO chat was taking the thread off topic and the discussion was becoming less focussed and more confusing.




Thanks Joe.
Looking at the charts arround the world yesterday and over the weekend, I can't help but feel we are going past a 10% correction and venturing into a protracted bear market. The XAO has dropped from high 4900's (and the djia has dropped from almost 11,000).
There was a significant lack of volume in trading on the xao yesterday causing the market to slide further as more shareholders sold down. This downward spiral was reflected in the Asian and European markets overnight. The European markets are reacting to the bad news comming out of Greece and wondring if this will turn into their own version of the US sub-prime mortgage fiasco as more European countries fess up to dodgy figures and escalating debt. This appears to be effecting Australian companies with global exposure, particularly those in Infrastructure and reit's with large European and/or US property port folio's.


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My analysis is that we may see some downside shortly. RSI is overbought, resistance has been met, and on the 4 hour chart we are still in a downtrend. It will be interesting to see what happens on Wall Street tonight, as the majority of our moves are lead by them...


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> It will be interesting to see what happens on Wall Street tonight, as the majority of our moves are lead by them...




I think I have heard that one somewhere before, must be true. For anyone interested here is a spreadsheet with DOW vs XJO moves with the dates offset by one day to show what our market did after the US close. I've highlighted about 30 days out of the last 90 odd where we did our own thing by 1% or more, most times in the other direction. thats 30% of the time folks,


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm not talking about the next day, I'm talking about when the moves are occurring...


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> I'm not talking about the next day, I'm talking about when the moves are occurring...




Sorry not sure what that means? If the moves are led by "wall street" then we should be following the next day in there lead ie moving similar amount, in similar direction?


----------



## sammy84 (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> My analysis is that we may see some downside shortly. RSI is overbought, resistance has been met, and on the 4 hour chart we are still in a downtrend. It will be interesting to see what happens on Wall Street tonight, as the majority of our moves are lead by them...




I would exactly call that bounce on feb 3rd resitance.


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> I would exactly call that bounce on feb 3rd resitance.




So would I.


----------



## Edwood (26 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

not in play just yet >> h&s target


----------



## Whiskers (26 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not a good H&S imo Edwood.

I think there have been better shaped ones that have/ may succeded (red) and have/will fail (blue).

My best guess from my FA and most favoured EW count is that it may go a little lower before breaking up again for a minor b wave, before revisiting these levels and going on and upwards again... something like the blue arrow.

We have a higher high, just need a higher low... but many EW'ers are talking up the start of a wave 3 down, down, down...


----------



## Trembling Hand (26 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> We have a higher high, just need a higher low... but many EW'ers are talking up the start of a wave 3 down, down, down...




Like they have for all of 09 & now probably 2010.


----------



## Edwood (26 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Not a good H&S imo Edwood.
> 
> I think there have been better shaped ones that have/ may succeded (red) and have/will fail (blue).




Hi Whiskers yep the final shape could go higher, its more the head & distance to neckline that I'm interested in - could end up a hunchback yet


----------



## Whiskers (26 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

AP is reporting UK 4th quarter economic growth revised up from 0.1% to 0.3%... another bit of data supporting my FA of lessening chance of big falls in our market if other major markets are continuing to show some signs of improvement... but, I'm always open to a compelling arguement to the contrary.


----------



## Edwood (27 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

yep looks as tho we're out of jail for the moment, Vix recovered and now back to recent lows.
Unfortunately +ve gdp doesn't necessarily mean growth - see Japan the last 20 years.  And it doesn't solve fundamental Eur issues.  
But that doesn't mean we can't bounce near-term as you say, bull markets climb a wall of worry - problem comes when that bull market is just correcting a bear.


----------



## Whiskers (2 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> yep looks as tho we're out of jail for the moment, Vix recovered and now back to recent lows.
> Unfortunately +ve gdp doesn't necessarily mean growth - see Japan the last 20 years.  And it doesn't solve fundamental Eur issues.
> But that doesn't mean we can't bounce near-term as you say, *bull markets climb a wall of worry* - problem comes when that bull market is just correcting a bear.




Europe and the US seem to be shedding or climbing over a bit of that worry atm, all up around 1% overnight.  

Based on solid FA data, I predict we'll rise today! :


----------



## Whiskers (2 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Oh yes, I momentarily forgot about the RBA decision and that little wall of worry there today. 

According to the SMH the AUD is maintaining strength in anticipation of a .25 rise. Much of the recent data would support that, BUT...



> But the Australian Bureau of Statistics retail trade for January, the ABS building approvals for January and ABS data on government spending for December is due out.




Existing property sale prices are up quite a bit, but if new building approvals are slow that would negate that. Not sure Jan retail sales are going to be too hot and with gov stimulus spending due to ease back, I wouldn't be too surprised if the RBA defied the 'experts' and left rates steady again.


----------



## Kryzz (22 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Time to roll-over now?


----------



## jonojpsg (23 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kryzz said:


> Time to roll-over now?




Hmm, yep that looks much more like the h&s that would send us back to 3700ish  Just about time for those pesky Alt-A and Option ARM loans in US to start resetting too isn't it?  Trigger??


----------



## brty (25 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Lot's of talk for months of the imminent top and a retreat to sub 4000. This thread has gone quiet.

Lots of worries, ARMS reset , Europe, China decelerating etc...

What are the odds of a melt-UP. Virtually no-one predicting it..

brty


----------



## Kryzz (25 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Anyone have a VSA opinion here? Would an increase in volume mean a greater chance of clearing 5,000, or more a blow off top type scenario?


----------



## brty (26 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Shaun,

You're looking at xmas/holiday volume compared to now volume, no comparison in my opinion. If talking volume you need to compare like with like..

brty


----------



## Whiskers (29 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm thinking we're probably far enough advanced in this 'b' leg to make a prediction now. 

I'd say wave 'i' extended and a diag triangle formed to finish off.

I'm expecting it to reverse before 4975.5, but maybe not for a few days yet.


----------



## nulla nulla (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kryzz said:


> Anyone have a VSA opinion here? Would an increase in volume mean a greater chance of clearing 5,000, or more a blow off top type scenario?






brty said:


> Shaun,
> 
> You're looking at xmas/holiday volume compared to now volume, no comparison in my opinion. If talking volume you need to compare like with like..
> 
> brty






Whiskers said:


> I'm thinking we're probably far enough advanced in this 'b' leg to make a prediction now.
> 
> I'd say wave 'i' extended and a diag triangle formed to finish off.
> 
> I'm expecting it to reverse before 4975.5, but maybe not for a few days yet.




If you consider that the rise in late December early January was a false rally on small volumes, then the downward run from November bottomed in February and the market is now in a true rally. 
Whether or not it has run it's course and will now turn down to "Sub 4000" levels remains to be seen. The DJIA continues to test the resistance level of 10,900 - 11,000 and the xao continues to head butt the resistance level of 4950. 
In my opinion, the volumes of trade at present reflect a lack of participation and confidence in the market, making a retrace more likely (can't see the basis for it falling to 4000 and lower though).


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> In my opinion, the volumes of trade at present reflect a lack of participation and confidence in the market, making a retrace more likely (can't see the basis for it falling to 4000 and lower though).




Nulla what's so wrong with a low volume rise? In fact if I had to choose between high and low vol here my preference would be low, if I was a bull of course.

Why or what evidence or what thinking goes to high volume breaks are good. For everything I've seen and traded high volume into and through new highs is bad. (mostly)


----------



## sammy84 (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Can't have one hard and fast rule for volume IMO. I have a preference for mid-high (not ultra high) volume BREAKOUTS, buts that only because I am of the belief that less manipulation has occurred (you may call me a sceptic). 

For a trending market it is too limiting to judge volume without a hard look at the surrounding factors. This rally clearly has a lack of participation, but more so a lack of sellers. No conviction what so ever on down days. Could keep trending like this for a little while more.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Can't have one hard and fast rule for volume IMO. I have a preference for mid-high (not ultra high) volume BREAKOUTS, buts that only because I am of the belief that less manipulation has occurred (you may call me a sceptic).




Got any examples of mid-high breaks that are successful? 

That doesn't make sense, "less manipulation". If anyone is manipulating the market they *need *high volume to get *out*. You cannot *move *a market *&* get out of it at the same time on low volume.


----------



## sammy84 (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Got any examples of mid-high breaks that are successful?
> 
> That doesn't make sense, "less manipulation". If anyone is manipulating the market they *need *high volume to get *out*. You cannot *move *a market *&* get out of it at the same time on low volume.




Will provide a few charts when I get home tonight. From memory PRGO (Nasdaq listed) was a pretty good breakout on mid- high volume ( edit: attached is chart from some free web charting package).

By manipulation I am referring to disproportioned moves. It’s a lot easier to create false breakouts on low volume rather then high. I prefer to be in moves where the *probability* is that they have actual conviction with locked in buyers.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> It’s a lot easier to create false breakouts on low volume rather then high. I prefer to be in moves where the *probability* is that they have actual conviction with locked in buyers.




If it breaks out and no one sells into it what is that telling you? 

Your "conviction with locked in buyers" is a somewhat strange concept. Something along the lines of what? confirmation? Nothing worse IMO than newbies to the party jumping in on a break. *You have to ask who is on the other side supplying the volume?*

Whenever I look through the most loved stocks on ASF I always see comments about high volume pushes being positive as they happen. Come back a week later and they have fallen over almost every time. Very clear that punters jump at these moves like flies to s***. Just as clear that someone else is distributing to them.

Anyway I'm sure you can find some good examples to confirm high vol is good. The idea has been around for 100 years. I just don't see it in my trading. High volume is good to stop down moves, capitulation, punters giving up to pros. And to me I see the exact same thing in reverse, punters getting distributed to by the pros.


----------



## nomore4s (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Anyway I'm sure you can find some good examples to confirm high vol is good. The idea has been around for 100 years. I just don't see it in my trading. High volume is good to stop down moves, capitulation, punters giving up to pros. And to me I see the exact same thing in reverse, punters getting distributed to by the pros.




I tend to agree.

High volume on up moves signal time to look for an exit.
High volume on down moves signal time to look for an entry.

Weakness in strength & strength in weakness.


----------



## sammy84 (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> If it breaks out and no one sells into it what is that telling you?




Then I should hopefully have a bar closing at the top of its range. That's enough for me to have some confidence to wait and see.



Trembling Hand said:


> Your "conviction with locked in buyers" is a somewhat strange concept. Something along the lines of what? confirmation? Nothing worse IMO than newbies to the party jumping in on a break. *You have to ask who is on the other side supplying the volume?*




Conviction- Participants as opposed to market noise
Locked in buyers- Even if it's newbies, once they enter a position they would probably have a relcutance to sell at a loss. Plenty of time for me to get out before then. Agree with the notion of who is selling, however the concept of irrational exhuberence also applies and newbies jumping on a break  can always cause one push higher. By then it is free trade time and anything can happen. Would be different however if you were looking for longer trends. 



Trembling Hand said:


> Whenever I look through the most loved stocks on ASF I always see comments about high volume pushes being positive as they happen. Come back a week later and they have fallen over almost every time. Very clear that punters jump at these moves like flies to s***. Just as clear that someone else is distributing to them.




Agree, a lot of breakeven trades but only a few need to work to make money. 



Trembling Hand said:


> Anyway I'm sure you can find some good examples to confirm high vol is good. The idea has been around for 100 years. I just don't see it in my trading. High volume is good to stop down moves, capitulation, punters giving up to pros. And to me I see the exact same thing in reverse, punters getting distributed to by the pros.





Agreed in relation to down moves. These sort of moves I find have a higher success rate, specially when coupled with some form of + divergence. The only problem is that the markets seems to offer these opportunities much less. I guess all this conversationsation proves is that volume cannot be judged in a vacuum.


----------



## nulla nulla (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Nulla what's so wrong with a low volume rise? In fact if I had to choose between high and low vol here my preference would be low, if I was a bull of course.
> 
> Why or what evidence or what thinking goes to high volume breaks are good. For everything I've seen and traded high volume into and through new highs is bad. (mostly)




*IMO* the volumes at present are consistanly lower than the 2008 daily averages. This to me reflects a lack of participation in the market, which I interpret as a lack of confidence of traders being prepared to speculate on returns from investing or trading. I also suspect that there is less activity currently in the ASX from overseas investors/traders (but I can't prove this).
The comparison quoted on above was between the runup of the market during the Xmas New Year period when many of the professional traders were on annual leave. I saw this as a false rise which appeared to be corrected when the professionals came back from Annual Leave. 
The volumes on the runup from February through March has been on higher volumes (but not at the 2008 level).
I don't put to much stock in isolated spikes in volume (upward or downward price movement) as indicative as to where the market is going longterm as there is usualy a reason attached such as irrational exhuberance (upward) or Fear (Downward). 
More often than not, *IMO*,  isolated volume spikes can present a sell oportunity or an entry oportunity.


----------



## skyQuake (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey nulla, if you have a look at breakouts on volume WITH announcements vs WITHOUT announcements, you'll find some interesting stats.

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> *IMO* the volumes at present are consistently lower than the 2008 daily averages. This to me reflects a lack of participation in the market,




I doubt we will return to those volume levels in a long long time. If we do the index will likely be around 3000 or 8000.

Who would you say are no longer participating? The pros? The punters? The OS hedgies?

IMO many punters will never return after 2008(until we get to 7000-8000), Pros will always be around no matter what the conditions & there some evidence that OS money is not flowing in as strong as it was last year (clearly from the wish washy AUD).


----------



## sammy84 (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Hey nulla, if you have a look at breakouts on volume WITH announcements vs WITHOUT announcements, you'll find some interesting stats.
> 
> Cheers




Please share, would be very interesting.


----------



## nulla nulla (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I doubt we will return to those volume levels in a long long time. If we do the index will likely be around 3000 or 8000.
> 
> Who would you say are no longer participating? The pros? The punters? The OS hedgies?
> 
> IMO many punters will never return after 2008(until we get to 7000-8000), Pros will always be around no matter what the conditions & there some evidence that OS money is not flowing in as strong as it was last year (clearly from the wish washy AUD).




I suspect the overseas hedge funds have pulled a lot of their cash out exiting on a stronger aud$ and improved share prices. I haven't seen too many notices to reflect changes in substantial holdings that would indicate they are back yet.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> I suspect the overseas hedge funds have pulled a lot of their cash out exiting on a stronger aud$ and improved share prices. I haven't seen too many notices to reflect changes in substantial holdings that would indicate they are back yet.




How can you say that? 

AUD is a cent off 2 year highs and 5 cents from many decade highs. If funds had flow out the AUD would be getting/got smashed. But its not it going up.

When the elephants stampede its pretty easy to see their tracks.


----------



## nulla nulla (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> How can you say that?
> 
> AUD is a cent off 2 year highs and 5 cents from many decade highs. If funds had flow out the AUD would be getting/got smashed. But its not it going up.
> 
> When the elephants stampede its pretty easy to see their tracks.




I watch the overseas hedge funds involvement in Australian Infrastructure shares and REIT shares. If you read back through the sector announcements re change of shareholdings you will see that there have been some large exits (specifically the Canadian Superfunds exit from mig/ito and other hedge funds from the likes of CPA, DXS, GPT, and others).
When the canadian superfund exited mig, one of the speculative reasons was the increased value of the AUD$ against the overseas currencies. Although the share price was down the aud$ was up (significantly if the funds had been acquiring when the aud$ was in the us$60 cent range). 
The aud$ is not getting smashed probably because of the perceived strength of the Australian Economy on the back of the resource recovery.

The impact of the Elephants (Canadian Super Funds) stampeding out of mig is still being felt. I have their tracks across my portfolio.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> The aud$ is not getting smashed probably because of the perceived strength of the Australian Economy on the back of the resource recovery.




I'll have to agree to disagree on that one. For me it aint perception that makes something go up - its action. Or people paying higher and higher prices to meet their demand.


Thats why IMO the XAO looks like the AUUSD chart. Their both being bought.


----------



## jonojpsg (31 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I'll have to agree to disagree on that one. For me it aint perception that makes something go up - its action. Or people paying higher and higher prices to meet their demand.
> 
> 
> Thats why IMO the XAO looks like the AUUSD chart. Their both being bought.




Following that logic, should not the S&P500 look like the USDAU chart?


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jonojpsg said:


> Following that logic, should not the S&P500 look like the USDAU chart?




What?  

Thats not following any logic that exist in the market. Go find out what the risk trade is, and what a carry trade is.


----------



## jonojpsg (31 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> What?
> 
> Thats not following any logic that exist in the market. Go find out what the risk trade is, and what a carry trade is.




OK so a risk trade is buying assets that are considered higher risk, eg XAO as we are more exposed to fluctuations in demand for resources, yes?  And these fluctuations are more likely to be down as up.  And the AUD is considered a risk asset also as its value is also tied to commodoties prices.

The carry trade is where one borrows in lower interest currencies, eg USD and buys assets in higher yielding currencies, eg AUD. 

So the USD is being sold then.

On analysing the XAO then, we still need to break the resistance before heading higher - 5000 or bust.  Will something emerge that changes people from risk to risk aversion?  That seems to be what everyone is waiting for, hence the lower volumes.  Where will the next shock come from?  Is there one out there?  If not, it will take time for people to believe that, as the big guys are great at hiding the crap they have gotten us all into until they have had time to get out.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jonojpsg said:


> OK so a risk trade is buying assets that are considered higher risk, eg XAO as we are more exposed to fluctuations in demand for resources, yes?



No the risk trade is a general term to group a whole heap of trades that are occurring post 2008. They are a variation on the carry trade. Not necessarily across borders but can include that.

For example borrow money in USD, EUR, JPY & GBP (which are low interest rate) and invest in higher yielding (interest & capital return) instruments. That can include equities within the same country or outside, commodities, growth economy FX and growth economy bonds/interest rates.


----------



## nomore4s (7 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here is a chart of the XAO with a top secret, super duper divergence code: that has proven to be very reliable in the past.

It basically gives an indication of how many stocks are trending up or down based on - well that's the secret bit:

You can see how it picked up divergence before the last fall after making new highs in Jan.

While it is now telling me that less and less stocks have been participating in this rally and there is some underlying weakness in the market. It is also sending a bit of a warning that more stocks could be beginning to join in which could push us higher. Due to the nature of how this indicator is constructed there can actually be a bit of lag as stocks move into a position to be counted as trending up.

I certainly would not be shorting the market here with any sort of confidence, the market is in a bit of a strange phase atm and I'm having a bit of trouble having any real conviction either way but I do favour continued strength at this stage and my best guess is a move to around 5035-5050 this month and then review things from there if we make it. There is also a chance we could go towards 5160 this quarter.

The market will probably tank now that I've made my "prediction" so load up those shorts


----------



## nulla nulla (8 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Here is a chart of the XAO with a top secret, super duper divergence code: that has proven to be very reliable in the past.
> 
> It basically gives an indication of how many stocks are trending up or down based on - well that's the secret bit:
> 
> ...




And the first line of support at 4500 if it turns cacky today? How much longer can resources prop up the xao?


----------



## nomore4s (8 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> And the first line of support at 4500 if it turns cacky today? How much longer can resources prop up the xao?




lol, right on cue the DOW has a down night.

I would have thought the first line of support could be 4800-4850 but there is obviously more major support at 4500 but imo it is a bit early to be calling 4500 again even though we could easily bounce off resistance and head straight back down to that level.

I would ideally like to see some consolidation now around these areas before an attempt at pushing higher but at the end of the day they are only lines on a chart and whether the market respects them or not is a different matter.


----------



## jonojpsg (8 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> lol, right on cue the DOW has a down night.
> 
> I would have thought the first line of support could be 4800-4850 but there is obviously more major support at 4500 but imo it is a bit early to be calling 4500 again *even though we could easily bounce off resistance *and head straight back down to that level.
> 
> I would ideally like to see some consolidation now around these areas before an attempt at pushing higher but at the end of the day they are only lines on a chart and whether the market respects them or not is a different matter.




Some questions that I have: at what stage does the technical side of things become self-fulfilling, eg now that there has been the back off from resistance, will traders go "right, time to sell"?  How far does the index have to move down from a test of resistance to make it significant? Or will this take another test and pullback, which would make the response even stronger?  

Also, how much does the weight of numbers influence things, eg are the big players more likely to trade by TA and hence look to short as resistance is proved?  Is it wise to try and jump in ahead of them?

Thanks in advance


----------



## nomore4s (8 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jonojpsg said:


> Some questions that I have: at what stage does the technical side of things become self-fulfilling, eg now that there has been the back off from resistance, will traders go "right, time to sell"?  How far does the index have to move down from a test of resistance to make it significant? Or will this take another test and pullback, which would make the response even stronger?
> 
> Also, how much does the weight of numbers influence things, eg are the big players more likely to trade by TA and hence look to short as resistance is proved?  Is it wise to try and jump in ahead of them?
> 
> Thanks in advance




lol, How long is a piece of string?

I'm not sure I buy the self-fulfilling theory, maybe if everyone used the same methodology over the same time-frame but we know that is not the case.


----------



## jonojpsg (8 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

OK so time frame has some bearing - but when you look at the daily, which most (if not all?) traders would have a squiz at, that's a pretty good line from which it has retreated.  Surely that is going to make a percentage sit back and go, "yep, it's bounced off that resistance again"?  I guess it's the size of that percentage and the weight they carry that will determine whether it drops off another few percent.

Really though, it's only resistance until it's broken, then it's support, so maybe it is really only as long as a piece of string


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Here is a chart of the XAO with a top secret, super duper divergence code: that has proven to be very reliable in the past.
> 
> It basically *gives an indication of how many stocks* are trending up or down based on - well that's the secret bit:




Greetings. Would that be the top 500, 200, 100 or 50 stocks weighting? I won't tell. Promise.


> at what stage does the technical side of things become self-fulfilling




When the majority of bank rolls agree on it. Is it any coincidence that yesterdays close was within 2 points of the January 11 swing high close?


----------



## nomore4s (8 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Greetings. Would that be the top 500, 200, 100 or 50 stocks weighting? I won't tell. Promise.




The scan is run over the All Ords and has nothing to do with weightings.


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> The scan is run over the All Ords and has nothing to do with weightings.



Okay thanks.


----------



## Whiskers (8 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> I certainly would not be shorting the market here with any sort of confidence, the market is in a bit of a strange phase atm and I'm having a bit of trouble having any real conviction either way but I do favour continued strength at this stage and my best guess is a move to around 5035-5050 this month and then review things from there if we make it. There is also a chance we could go towards 5160 this quarter.
> 
> The market will probably tank now that I've made my "prediction" so load up those shorts




Yeah, looking a bit like a weak lead to come from Europe down over 1% and probably the US  too on Greek debt worries with an anouncement about revaluing the Yuan upwards to the USD expected soon. 

At first thought it must make all Chinese imports more expensive and if as I suspect the markets are due for a correction this could be the trigger to give it a bit of imputus.

Anyone got an estimate/prediction on how (much) a revalued Yuan will affect the Aus economy as distinct from the XAO?


----------



## nomore4s (8 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Okay thanks.




The code isn't really top secret I was just messing around.

It is based on a system/method I use to trade but I don't post much of it on ASF so it would mean nothing to most people and I couldn't be bothered trying to explain it. Those who have discussed  my trading with me and know the method I use would probably have a fair idea of how it is constructed.


----------



## nulla nulla (9 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> The code isn't really top secret I was just messing around.




Yes it is a secret, however nomore4s passed it on to the chatters in the ASF Chat room one afternoon after he had a good day and was celebrating early. For a small contribution of alcohol, the other chatters will pass on the details of his secret and very successful system.



nomore4s said:


> It is based on a system/method I use to trade but I don't post much of it on ASF so it would mean nothing to most people and I couldn't be bothered trying to explain it. Those who have discussed  my trading with me and know the method I use would probably have a fair idea of how it is constructed.




Remember, for a small contribution of alcohol, you too could share the "nomore4s secret system" and be on your way to riches and early retirement.


----------



## nulla nulla (9 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On an unrelated matter, the djia finished up 29.5 points today on the strength of a rally in financial stocks. It will be interesting to see whether this transposes as a lead in todays action in the finacial sector on the xao.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fi...n-greece-debt-fears-2010-04-08?dist=bigcharts


----------



## Trembling Hand (9 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> with an anouncement about revaluing the Yuan upwards to the USD expected soon.
> 
> 
> Anyone got an estimate/prediction on how (much) a revalued Yuan will affect the Aus economy as distinct from the XAO?




Don't count on it. Not being smooth anyway. They are stuck big time on this one. They need to do it eventually but how? Many small gradual moves is a signal to every hedgie to front run the Yuan/HKD and cause some real problems. It becomes a sure thing with unlimited trade size. 

But if they do it in one big step back to somewhere around "real value" that will cause lots of problems inside China. Then outside the benefits of their extra purchasing power to buy our rocks will be upset by the extra cost of their products.

Very sticky situation. This could be a biggie


----------



## nomore4s (15 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> I certainly would not be shorting the market here with any sort of confidence, the market is in a bit of a strange phase atm and I'm having a bit of trouble having any real conviction either way but I do favour continued strength at this stage and my best guess is a move to around 5035-5050 this month and then review things from there if we make it. There is also a chance we could go towards 5160 this quarter.




We have hit the 5035-5050 area this morning.

I want to see how the next few days play out now, especially today. There is a fair chance we will continue to get dragged higher due to the strength around atm. 

I will up date the charts tonight.


----------



## Whiskers (15 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Don't count on it. Not being smooth anyway. They are stuck big time on this one. They need to do it eventually but how? Many small gradual moves is a signal to every hedgie to front run the Yuan/HKD and cause some real problems. It becomes a sure thing with unlimited trade size.
> 
> But if they do it in one big step back to somewhere around "real value" that will cause lots of problems inside China. Then outside the benefits of their extra purchasing power to buy our rocks will be upset by the extra cost of their products.
> 
> Very sticky situation. This could be a biggie




Yeah, seems to be little head way on US pressure to revalue the Yuan, but with growth still strong but inflation slowing a bit in China there might be at least some slowing of USD's into china if China decides not to further increase or even for-shadows a decrease in interest rates at a time when the US must be getting close to a token increase.

China at 5.31% India 5.00, Brazil 8.75 and Aus 4.25 are stand outs compared to the rest of the world, although I'm not sure how closely these others are correlated to bank deposit and loan rates.

I think the RBA probably got a bit ahead of themselves with rate increases and needs to put it on hold for awhile and let the US and Europe catch up a bit and one would expect China to pull back it's stimulus a bit soon too. Regardless of the Yuan peg this should start to tip the flow of cash back to US.

Probably, not the best time to be talking about any dramatic shift in monetary policy anyway, regardless of what the US wants, until the world comes back to some stability and eqilibrium. 

As you suggest, it will have a significant impact on world markets in the calmest of times without risking calamity to appease the US atm.


----------



## nomore4s (15 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> We have hit the 5035-5050 area this morning.
> 
> I want to see how the next few days play out now, especially today. There is a fair chance we will continue to get dragged higher due to the strength around atm.
> 
> I will up date the charts tonight.




Updated chart with the indicator on it.

The second chart is marked up with some areas to keep an eye on.
I would be expecting a pullback to at least 4900-4940 area (red circle) and maybe as far as 4800 area (blue square) but I still think we are a chance for 5160ish this quarter as well.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out from here, for continued strength a pullback and then consolidation around 4900 is my favoured play before heading to 5160ish. For a more bearish view a drop below 4800 would indiacte we have well & truly dropped back into the range and means we could re-test 4500.


----------



## Sean K (15 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Follow the charts, always, imo. 

But beware of the false economy we have driving asset prices.

0% interest rates and encouragement to borrow, is not the cure. 

Troubling times.

Trying to post chart but the internet I am stealing is crapo.


----------



## nomore4s (15 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

While I'm updating charts I thought I would update my long term analysis that I posted a while ago.

Now while it has not played out to the exact pattern I was looking at (surprise, surprise) we are now nearing the major target zone I first flagged. This actually ties in a bit with my target of 5160ish. It will be interesting to see if that area does prove to be a key area.

Of course a retest of 3700 seems unlikely now, while not impossible it is unlikely at this stage. I would expect a retest of 4400-4500 at some stage though, maybe as far as 4000.

As a not there is quite strong divergence on the weekly which is interesting but I have not done any testing on that indicator on the weekly time-frame so it might mean absolutely nothing.


----------



## Sean K (15 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Now while it has played out to the exact pattern I was looking at (surprise, surprise) we are now nearing the major target zone I first flagged. This actually ties in a bit with my target of 5160ish. It will be interesting to see if that area does prove to be a key area.



Massive, MASSIVE, resistance area between 4800 and 5200. Massive. Could chop around here for some time perhaps.


----------



## nulla nulla (16 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> While I'm updating charts I thought I would update my long term analysis that I posted a while ago.
> 
> Now while it has not played out to the exact pattern I was looking at (surprise, surprise) we are now nearing the major target zone I first flagged. This actually ties in a bit with my target of 5160ish. It will be interesting to see if that area does prove to be a key area.
> 
> ...




At this point the market would need to fall more than 10% to retrace to the support levels of 4500. With China's growth accelerating despite the governments brake being applied there would have to be another major international crisis to take it lower than that.


----------



## Whiskers (16 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This might be the top. Chance of a reasonably Evening Star forming what with it being Friday and fadeing.


----------



## Edwood (17 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> This might be the top. Chance of a reasonably Evening Star forming what with it being Friday and fadeing.




looking promising at the moment Whiskers!  strong reactions in the US, Goldman down more than 10%.  Aus leading the way again?


----------



## nulla nulla (17 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

7 of the last 8 weeks have seen weekly gains on the djia, with a similar effect on the xao here in Australia. On Friday the xao finished above 5000. Last night at one point the djia fell 170 points and was below the 11,000 level but it rallied to finish above the 11,000 point. 
The fall in the US was attributed to uncertainty with how far reaching the SEC action against Goldman Sachs would be in the finance sector. Goldman Sachs dropped 13%. 
No doubt there will be an initial reaction to this on the xao on Monday. However I expect that we will see a rally after the initial fall as bargain hunters move back in.


----------



## satanoperca (17 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dj down last night, we need a 73 point drop to close the gap that remains in the XAO chart at 4924. Until then can I see the onward March continuing.

This pause, small correction is much needed with some becoming nervous that the growth in recent weeks was unsustainable.

Cheers


----------



## nomore4s (17 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



satanoperca said:


> Dj down last night, we need a 73 point drop to close the gap that remains in the XAO chart at 4924. Until then can I see the onward March continuing.
> 
> This pause, small correction is much needed with some becoming nervous that the growth in recent weeks was unsustainable.
> 
> Cheers




This subject has already been touched on by TH but........

Satan,

There are gaps on the XAO nearly everyday. The problem is because of the staggered opening and the way ASX works out the opening tick on the index it doesn't show up on index charts.

The point is trying to use the gaps that you can actually see on your charts provided by data providers like Premium Data give you "false data" as far as gaps are concerned on the XAO chart. So to place significance on one gap even though there are others you can't see due to the data you're using that haven't been filled is a bit haphazard imo.

I have attached a 1 hour chart of the SPI to show how often the indexes actually gap around.


----------



## nulla nulla (17 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Our recent gains in the xao appears to be on the back of growing and sustained confidence in the Australian Economy. The xao demonstrates a steady gain rather then spurts and appears to be relatively uneffected by the bad news popping up in various European Countries. 

The doomsayers have been sprooking a hefty retrace for some time, which has not eventuated. Personaly I think it would be more likely (a hefty retrace) if the gains had been sudden and rapid rather than slow and prolongued. No doubt the retrace in banking on the djia last night will give the shorters some "short" joy, however I will not be closing out all my holds for the crash just yet.


----------



## satanoperca (17 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> The point is trying to use the gaps that you can actually see on your charts provided by data providers like Premium Data give you "false data" as far as gaps are concerned on the XAO chart. So to place significance on one gap even though there are others you can't see due to the data you're using that haven't been filled is a bit haphazard imo.




How much significance is the question and the assumption that you made that I believe it is significant.

If we are a day or two away from closing a gap then I will wait and see if it gets closes rather than add to trades. 

The last time I addressed the gaps we have seen all the gaps closed from the last Jan correction. Significant or not, the reality is they were closed.

The XAO chart is also clearly showing bearish divergence on dailies and starting to form on weeklies. Another indicator that we will head lower for the short term. Maybe just low enough to close the gaps.


Cheers


----------



## nomore4s (17 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



satanoperca said:


> Dj down last night, we need a 73 point drop to *close the gap that remains in the XAO chart at 4924*. Until then can I see the onward March continuing.






satanoperca said:


> How much significance is the question and the assumption that you made that I believe it is significant.
> 
> *If we are a day or two away from closing a gap then I will wait and see if it gets closes rather than add to trades.*
> 
> The last time I addressed the gaps we have seen all the gaps closed from the last Jan correction. *Significant or not, the reality is they were closed*




By the bold bits you are placing significance on the gaps, you are basing your trading strategies around them. What about the gaps you can't see due to the dodgy method used by the ASX? That chart I posted shows the index spends most of its time gapping overnight and then trying to fill during the day session. The point is there are gaps all the way up from about 4650 that have yet to be closed, so why is that one gap any more significant then the others?



> The XAO chart is also clearly showing bearish divergence on dailies and starting to form on weeklies. Another indicator that we will head lower for the short term. Maybe just low enough to close the gaps.




Divergence is nice but the problem is now you are 2 days behind the move and there has been signs of divergence for a while on the XAO chart - so when do you know when to pay more attention to it? The short term top was called a couple of days ago to nearly the point and another experienced trader on this forum called the it to the date, nearly the minute in fact (to me in private discussions), this allows you to actually front run the move not follow it.

IMO you place too much importance on divergence and gaps.


----------



## satanoperca (17 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Divergence is nice but the problem is now you are 2 days behind the move and there has been signs of divergence for a while on the XAO chart - so when do you know when to pay more attention to it? The short term top was called a couple of days ago to nearly the point and another experienced trader on this forum called the it to the date, nearly the minute in fact (to me in private discussions), this allows you to actually front run the move not follow it.
> 
> IMO you place too much importance on divergence and gaps.




I cannot be bothered getting into a debate on what I place more or less significance on or whether the gaps you see or I see are any more significant than each other. As for the divergence, well it has been three days since I started placing shorts again, was I to early. Was my timing incorrect, only time will tell.

I also note that you to mention divergence and the same gap, your divergence and  gap must be more significant than mine, but please do not place to much significance of these in your trading plan, a gun GURU told me not to.

Cheers


----------



## nunthewiser (17 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> The short term top was called a couple of days ago to nearly the point and another experienced trader on this forum called the it to the date, nearly the minute in fact (to me in private discussions), this allows you to actually front run the move not follow it.
> 
> .





Yes i am a true internet guru swami.

thankyou for the accolades 

but what happens in the chatroom ..........stays in the chatroom........


----------



## nomore4s (17 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



satanoperca said:


> I also note that you to mention divergence and the same gap, your divergence and  gap must be more significant than mine, but please do not place to much significance of these in your trading plan, a gun GURU told me not to.




I don't know why I bother sometimes

I never mentioned anything about gaps, below is what I stated - there is no mention of a gap, that level just happens to be at the same level as a visible gap but it is a level I mentioned because it comes up under the same system I used to indicate the 5035-5050 area and has nothing to do with the gap. I actually think 4800 could be the more likely area now, but that will change in the next few weeks.



> The second chart is marked up with some areas to keep an eye on.
> I would be expecting a pullback to at least 4900-4940 area (red circle) and maybe as far as 4800 area (blue square) but I still think we are a chance for 5160ish this quarter as well.




This is the divergence I mentioned on the weekly. Obviously I'm *not* placing much signifcance on it at all. It was just an interesting observation.



> As a not there is quite strong divergence on the weekly which is interesting but *I have not done any testing on that indicator on the weekly time-frame so it might mean absolutely nothing.*




Gaps and divergence are handy tools and should be part of a traders toolbox, no doubt about it but the point I was making is that they need to be used in conjunction with other things and there are times to ignore them.

If you refer to my first post calling 5035-5050 area you will see I actually ignored significant divergence on the indicator because other things were telling me to ignore it.


----------



## nomore4s (17 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> Yes i am a true internet guru swami.
> 
> thankyou for the accolades
> 
> but what happens in the chatroom ..........stays in the chatroom........




You are right, you have provided some great calls and I've made plenty off them............by fading them:


----------



## nomore4s (17 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The point I'm trying to make Satan is that the XAO chart is not the same as a normal stock chart because the opening price is not accurate due to the staggered opening, so therefore the gaps that appear on the chart are not accurate.


----------



## Edwood (17 April 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> The point I'm trying to make Satan is that the XAO chart is not the same as a normal stock chart because the opening price is not accurate due to the staggered opening, so therefore the gaps that appear on the chart are not accurate.




an all sessions chart is good I find, just stick the cash open & close on it to set some context & identify gaps

Re: risk, Vix opening & closing outside the bolly a few days back gave the warning.  Vix up 20%+ at one point o/night


----------



## Kryzz (1 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> This might be the top. Chance of a reasonably Evening Star forming what with it being Friday and fadeing.




Good call whiskers, 2 weeks later a fakeout and back into the range approaching a moderate line of support, maybe a few more down days/consolidation before this pullback gets bought..yet again?


----------



## nulla nulla (2 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

After the friday night close off for the djia and the nasdaq, I would be amazed if the xao was to hold above the support level of 4800. I would not be surprised to see it test 4700 - 4720. I expect the fallout of the Henry Tax revue will push resources to have a meltdown and banks will go along for part of the ride on the growing unease of the European sovereign debt crisis.


----------



## Logique (3 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's not all bad in regard to the proposed Super Profits Tax.  It's still just a proposal. IMHO it won't get through the Senate in this term of the parliament (if it's introduced at all).  And you can expect the minerals council to lobby long and hard against it, not to mention the Coalition before and during the election. 

For junior explorers it's not too bad, because they would get the rebate on exploration costs. Only when, and if, they become super profitable - after capital and exploration costs - would they have to start paying 'super tax'. Take a look at some of our favourite trading stocks, a lot aren't in profit or anywhere near it. Yet are well regarded by traders.

I think this Super Profits Tax proposal on resources will see portfolio rebalancing away from resources towards utilities, property, consumer staples and similar defensives. Oh and cash. And a lot of foreign investment capital emigrating offshore.

The timing of this ann. from the Australian govt is one of the most annoying things. We did not need this - with the precariousness of the Greek, and perhaps other PIGS nations economies already making people jumpy. 

Almost guarantees a cycling of indices down to lower range support levels.

Edit: apology to the Mods, this post probably should have gone on the banter thread.


----------



## Whiskers (4 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kryzz said:


> Good call whiskers, 2 weeks later a fakeout and back into the range approaching a moderate line of support, *maybe a few more down days/consolidation before this pullback gets bought..yet again*?




Yeah, the AUD is in near free-fall today and the POG knocking on $1,200 again.

A couple more days of this and our resourse stocks in particular will be looking attractive again, regardless of any Henry review possible tax changes in a couple of years or more.


----------



## Logique (5 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> From *Whiskers*: A couple more days of this and our resourse stocks in particular will be looking attractive again, regardless of any Henry review possible tax changes in a couple of years or more.



Yes, agreed.

I noticed last night on tv the Newcrest CEO saying his worst case scenario of the effects of the RSPT would be a decline of 5%, although not sure if he meant profitability or company capitalisation.  

Each individual company and sector will come up with a different answer on the impact, depending upon the mix of exploration to production, and their current and anticipated 'super' profitability.

But the negative impact should not be 40% or anything like it. I'd suggest it will turn out to be a small fraction of that. That's if an RSPT happens at all. You've got exploration rebates, and also extra funding for infrastructure, such as coal loaders for instance, to soften the blow.

Take ESG. If the forward 12 month valuation is say 1.10, then applying say a minus 10% RSPT impact on that, makes it 0.99. 

The 1.10 and the 10% is purely hypothetical you understand. But ESG does a lot of rebate-attracting exploration. 10% may well turn out to be an overstatement of the impact.


----------



## adobee (5 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whats the storey behind the big bounce back on iron ore stocks today from this morning some have come into the green ??


----------



## sammy84 (5 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



adobee said:


> Whats the storey behind the big bounce back on iron ore stocks today from this morning some have come into the green ??




Oversold/relief rally


----------



## Whiskers (6 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, since all the expert EW'ers seem to have deserted us lately, I'll hang out my latest postulation for some citique.

I have two most likely counts... slightly favor the white since that was my earlier analysis, but as time goes by I'm leaning more to the yellow. 

Either way I expect a bottoming out soon.

PS: Logique, I think you're quite right here about Henry.



Logique said:


> Each individual company and sector will come up with a different answer on the impact, depending upon the mix of exploration to production, and their current and anticipated 'super' profitability.
> 
> But the negative impact should not be 40% or anything like it. I'd suggest it will turn out to be a small fraction of that. That's if an RSPT happens at all. You've got exploration rebates, and also extra funding for infrastructure, such as coal loaders for instance, to soften the blow.


----------



## nulla nulla (6 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Oversold/relief rally




or a dead cat bounce.


----------



## Sean K (7 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

4500 looks important here.

The last 25 days or so have been incredible. 

Either panic stations, or good moves to get out before we completely implode.


----------



## nulla nulla (9 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

4500 looks important as a potential support level but the combination of Labors proposed tax on the mining industry is dragging down resources and the European Sovereign debt crisis is slamming the financials. 
The speed of the recent retrace on the xao from 5000 to 4520 is dramatic (near enough 500 points in 16 days, 10%) but is not as dramatic in comparison to the drop from 6434 (02-01-2008) to 5210 (22-01-2008) 19% in roughly the same number of trading days.But that was only the start of the sub prime fallout. 
Is this recent drop the start of round two, it has broken all of my recent support lines?


----------



## IFocus (9 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here is the CBOE VIX weekly chart looking ugly compared to the last GFC

.


----------



## cutz (9 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Actually the VIX is looking rather nice.


----------



## lucifuge (9 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In the words of Pauline,  "please explain"??



cutz said:


> Actually the VIX is looking rather nice.




As an aside, the euro leaders have passed a $158 billion 'stabilization fund'. Obvious question, is this enough in the short term to arrest the recent drops in world markets?  What do people feel will happen from here? Will market(s) pick up again in the short term and bounce of recent resistance levels? Further drops beyond this point would be based on fear alone.


----------



## Whiskers (9 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Here is the CBOE VIX weekly chart looking ugly compared to the last GFC
> 
> .




Just a bit of an aftershock... a wakeup call for those lethargic greeks and spaniards etc to stop buggering about protesting and bite the bullet, err get busy plugging some leaky cash holes instead of rocking the boat, before their boat sinks underneath them.


----------



## tech/a (9 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers you called.
Click to expand


----------



## Whiskers (9 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Whiskers you called.
> Click to expand




I'm not sure what you're saying tech/a. Can you eloberate?


----------



## Logique (9 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



lucifuge said:


> As an aside, the euro leaders have passed a $158 billion 'stabilization fund'. Obvious question, is this enough in the short term to arrest the recent drops in world markets?



 Not saying we couldn't have an oversold rally, but in the near term I don't see the wider influences unwinding too quickly. 

Still a hung parliament in the UK, and maybe another election needed this year. Still uncertainty of the european PIIGS economies. Still this ridiculous proposed RSPT in Australia (ie the 'Canadian miners stimulus package'...I bet the Canadians can hardly believe their luck). Gee, if the miners have to pay more tax, do you think they might just pass this straight on to customers via increases in their prices??  Where does this end up? In your power bills and mine.

Anyway, look for the FTSE100 to hold above 5,000, the Dow above 10,000, and the All ords above 4,000 (or 4,100 as Whiskers seems to be implying, but then I don't understand that mysterious alchemy called Elliott Waves).

My gut feeling is that the Europeans will eventually get it together, and that in the meantime the strengthening US economy will provide some stability in world markets. The V-shaped recovery just became a W that's all.


----------



## tech/a (9 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I'm not sure what you're saying tech/a. Can you eloberate?




" EW'ers seem to have deserted us lately"


----------



## Trade wind (9 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What does the trumpet pattern in the chat herald?

A rebound? You could see good ol' Aussie optimism on Friday as bargain hunters moved to pick up resource stocks, before the XAO pulled back late. Doubt the super tax will have much effect beyond initial mining lobby outrage. We could well see a bounce this week, and the Sarkozy-led fighting fund to protect the Euro should bolster markets, for a while.

More likely, any rebound will be short-lived, and the XAO will break to the downside. European leaders and the ECB will have to do a lot more fancy footwork to assure markets the Euro zone won't crumble. Seems unlikely, but any whiff of bad news like another credit rating downgrade will further batter panicked markets.

Regardless, Eurodebt won't be resolved overnight and shockwaves will keep hitting recovering markets for months. Looks like we might be in for a ranging XAO somewhere between 4000 and 5000 this year.  It seems the index will struggle to get much above 5000, when recent rises have all been driven by the blue chips. How high can BHP and the big four banks (which are what, nearly 40% of the market) keep going? BHP, Comm Bank and Westpac were near record highs in April, while most of the market lagged and retail investors remain obsessed with real estate.


----------



## Whiskers (10 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> " EW'ers seem to have deserted us lately"




Oh, Yeah.

On your chart, is that your count or the software one?

I originally looked at an impulse count for your wave 5, but in the end I leaned to an abc. But I've found that often the end result can be the same for different possible counts.

So it's still anxious times to see whether todays rebound kicks on, or is the proverbial bear market rally. I'm a little buoyed by the strength of todays rebound given the US finished lower Friday.


----------



## tech/a (10 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The software.

There will be carnage on shorts before a continuation down to 4100 ish


----------



## Julia (10 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



lucifuge said:


> Further drops beyond this point would be based on fear alone.



Or perhaps further drops would simply reflect the reality of the situation, i.e. that nothing much has changed other than a shifting around of paper, contaminating the reasonable balance sheets of e.g. Germany with the junk of Greece.

For the last two and a half years, there has simply been one artificial move after another.  The fundamental problems of excessive debt are still there.


----------



## Boggo (10 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> " EW'ers seem to have deserted us lately"




Some of us amateur EW's are still around and making a quiet squid rather than copping flak 

Closed this out today, W.4 next do you think and then a final ride down on a W.5 ?

(click to expand)


----------



## nulla nulla (11 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking back to the January - Febuary 2008 xao chart, it bounced for 5-6 days after the panic downward spike, then fell back to the low point over the next 30 trading days. 
We had a bounce yesterday with the prospects of another rise today, will history repeat itself through May June 2010? Who is going to call it?


----------



## tech/a (11 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Who is going to call it?




Think its already been called above you.

Nice trade Boggo!


----------



## tech/a (11 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dont be suprised if we havent already seen the high of this Bullish move before we see a continuation of the 5 wave down trend.

Seeing a lot of different stocks doing the exact same as the index.


----------



## Boggo (11 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Dont be suprised if we havent already seen the high of this Bullish move before we see a continuation of the 5 wave down trend.
> 
> Seeing a lot of different stocks doing the exact same as the index.




Yep, that is a very nervous market at the moment.


----------



## tech/a (11 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Dont be suprised if we havent already seen the high of this Bullish move before we see a continuation of the 5 wave down trend.
> 
> Seeing a lot of different stocks doing the exact same as the index.




Short is good.


----------



## Kryzz (11 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Dont be suprised if we havent already seen the high of this Bullish move before we see a continuation of the 5 wave down trend.
> 
> Seeing a lot of different stocks doing the exact same as the index.




I'm confused, are you talking 5 waves down from the 07 highs? I see 5 waves up from the March lows, now an a-b-c correction taking place


----------



## tech/a (11 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> I'm confused, are you talking 5 waves down from the 07 highs? I see 5 waves up from the March lows, now an a-b-c correction taking place





See post #8010


----------



## tech/a (11 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Short is very good


----------



## Temjin (11 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Short is very good




A sea of red after a massive rally from DOW last night, that's a rare sight. When will you go "Short is excellent"?


----------



## tech/a (11 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Temjin said:


> A sea of red after a massive rally from DOW last night, that's a rare sight. When will you go "Short is excellent"?





When I close it out at near 4100


----------



## Muschu (11 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> When I close it out at near 4100




Organise a bit of a rally for me first would you please Tech?  I still have some stocks to give to others......


----------



## IFocus (11 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



lucifuge said:


> In the words of Pauline,  Further drops beyond this point would be based on fear alone.




Falling markets are priced on risk.

i.e. the risk of holding higher that being in cash


----------



## Whiskers (11 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Certainly a degree of volatility still. I note that the AUD is falling again (and I expect to go lower) after a rebound yesterday and with precious metals up, and base metals prices still at good levels, should buff any future negative and overseas leads for us over the next few days as the the UK parliament, our budget and concerns with the Greece bailout is digested by the markets.


----------



## tech/a (12 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Muschu said:


> Organise a bit of a rally for me first would you please Tech?  I still have some stocks to give to others......




Hope your happy!

Todays price action smells very much like a test of yesterdays high.


----------



## explod (12 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My gut says there is going to be a lot of wall papering done, elections and all, and of course the Euro union falling into line with Wall Street mentoring.  A bit of a crash soon to get all on board and then the ASX to 9000 if it can break the 5,200 resistance area for the allmighty crash for the new guvenmints hands in 2011.

Just my near as dammit bushman idea where the rain when if falls is still measured in inches.  Its just an idea (coupld be very wrong)that *cannot be explained*.


----------



## explod (17 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All quiet on the XAO thread, tide going out, index going down, batten down but make some money on the blowout.


----------



## tech/a (19 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As planned.
Now wave 5 as suggested above.
Dont you love it when the voodoo actually works!
Short is now Excellent.


----------



## Boggo (19 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> As planned.
> Now wave 5 as suggested above.
> Dont you love it when the voodoo actually works!
> Short is now Excellent.




Playing by the rules so far.
This was the view of the ASX 200 in MTP chart prediction on the 14th, the min target for W.5 at 4396 has arrived today.
The typical is predicted at 4285 !

(click to expand)


----------



## sammy84 (19 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

From memory looking at the XAO chart last night, if we close around these levels we should have some bullish divergence in place.


----------



## Broadway (19 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> From memory looking at the XAO chart last night, if we close around these levels we should have some bullish divergence in place.




Some volume around suggesting some buying.
Not huge, but some.
Euro still leading.


----------



## tech/a (19 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Some volume around suggesting some buying.
> Not huge, but some.
> Euro still leading.




As the index is falling and finishing well below the 50% level of the daily range Id say that there is little buying---more so dumping.
This last 30 mins will tell a little.
Anything below 4430 is clearly lack of support.


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Some volume around suggesting some buying.
> Not huge, but some.
> Euro still leading.



BHP and RIO had higher volume while the banks and other heavy weights were around average and lower.


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Gradual increase in volume over the last 3 days while the Index slides lower.  Does this pattern always culminate with a final drive down in points accompanied by a peak in volume.


----------



## tech/a (19 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No not always ther can be exhaustive volume if there is an obvious over reaction.But if the market believes the correction is about right then until an in balance occurs price will lose its volitility.


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> No not always ther can be exhaustive volume if there is an obvious over reaction.But if the market believes the correction is about right then until an in balance occurs price will lose its volitility.




Thanx Tech. Is the All Ords Index volume data available live with broker accounts?


----------



## Boggo (19 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Gradual increase in volume over the last 3 days while the Index slides lower.  Does this pattern always culminate with a final drive down in points accompanied by a peak in volume.




One for tech/a to describe

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a (20 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

In this case Boggo nothing flash to report just increased volume on selling.
Basic dumping.
So far todays dumping is just compounding the situation.
4100 ish looks promising---if your short.


----------



## brty (20 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On individual stocks I am getting lots of buy signals with my system/methodology. High volumes on reaching support. Bought into a few things today, some a little early in the day, a couple on the close and lows for the day.

As a general rule when I get lots of buys at the same time, it has proven to be good entry points. When I get isolated signals here and there, the tendency is for poorer performance.

Close to 50% in today after being in cash yesterday  Will probably add tomorrow if market action acceptable.

The XAO is reaching good support at 4290-4320, there may be a spike down tomorrow and then a reversal, time will tell.

brty


----------



## saiter (20 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> On individual stocks I am getting lots of buy signals with my system/methodology. High volumes on reaching support. Bought into a few things today, some a little early in the day, a couple on the close and lows for the day.
> 
> As a general rule when I get lots of buys at the same time, it has proven to be good entry points. When I get isolated signals here and there, the tendency is for poorer performance.
> 
> ...




I hope for your sake that you are correct... but other than your system's signals, what makes you think the market should reverse tomorrow? 

The XAO isn't the only market that is declining, the DJIA, HSI, DAX, FTSE and most importantly, the SSE (Shanghai), are all heading downwards.


----------



## Wysiwyg (20 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> The XAO is reaching good support at 4290-4320, there may be a spike down tomorrow and then a reversal, time will tell.
> brty



In support of this, my software acknowledges past resistance & support levels. The thick green line AT 4291.9 was considered most significant support by the software and not me. What happens next?


----------



## brty (20 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> I hope for your sake.....




You don't need to hope for me, I don't. I follow my signals, end of story. If the signals don't work, I will exit the positions.

I just thought I would add my 2c to all the negative tone around the traps. Whether any bounce has legs or not, I have no idea, but the market action over the next few days/week will give the clues. We could bounce hard, we could go sideways, but I have to be positioned to take advantage of a move if there is one.



> what makes you think the market should reverse tomorrow?




The answer to this question... How many times does the XAO go straight through a support point (from a previous up-trend), after falling nearly 6 weeks solidly for over 12% plus for 5+ days in a row without pausing/reacting?? 

My answer is not very often.. June of '02 being one time it did not work, but then you only had to wait for one more day and a 1.2% fall.

brty


----------



## nunthewiser (20 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

FWIW 

Im in agreeance with brty on a bounce due.

NOT calling this the bottom of this overall move BUT am saying that IMO there is a nice quick long trade due right about .......here..... and am positioned accordingly on a cupl of index weighting stocks plus a cupla midcaps as of today ......smaller positions , wider stops.


i could always be wrong and its armageddon ...do not pass go ,  But being the internet guru i am , i think not.


----------



## dlineinvestor (20 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> On individual stocks I am getting lots of buy signals with my system/methodology. High volumes on reaching support. Bought into a few things today, some a little early in the day, a couple on the close and lows for the day.
> 
> As a general rule when I get lots of buys at the same time, it has proven to be good entry points. When I get isolated signals here and there, the tendency is for poorer performance.
> 
> brty




I agree BRTY but from experience I also use the news as an added confirmation.
News has to confirm chart action  ...  so far no remedy has been released with regard to the greek crisis. That's where I draw the line we need news to confirm the charts.
BHP RIO QBE MQG these are all buy NOW signals BUT I will wait this one out. VERY hard to do sometimes but it will turn around one day and thats the day to get in not one day sooner

Watch the breaking of trendline though thats the safest thing


----------



## skyQuake (20 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dlineinvestor said:


> I agree BRTY but from experience I also use the news as an added confirmation.
> News has to confirm chart action  ...  so far no remedy has been released with regard to the greek crisis. That's where I draw the line we need news to confirm the charts.
> BHP RIO QBE MQG these are all buy NOW signals BUT I will wait this one out. VERY hard to do sometimes but it will turn around one day and thats the day to get in not one day sooner
> 
> Watch the breaking of trendline though thats the safest thing




I think the easy trade there was to short BHP? Obviously too many people are holding for that support level we touched today. Bad night on the dow and there will be blood on the streets tomorrow.


----------



## Wysiwyg (20 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dlineinvestor said:


> *BHP RIO QBE MQG these are all buy NOW signals* BUT I will wait this one out. VERY hard to do sometimes but it will turn around one day and thats the day to get in not one day sooner



With your conditions!!! 

=============================

Any Fib. cats in the street would have noticed a 38.2% retrace at the fat figure of 4300. A 50% retrace is also on a previous resistance level from June last year. 
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 "I opened the window to listen to the news; But all I heard was the Establishment's Blues."


----------



## Dark1975 (20 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> I think the easy trade there was to short BHP? Obviously too many people are holding for that support level we touched today. *Bad night on the dow and there will be blood on the streets tomorrow*.




Yes with dow futures pointing downwards again,And with wall street reform fails key vote heading morning news.If 4291 fails to hold up on the xao...there will be alot of blood


----------



## drsmith (20 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

At the end of the week global markets crashed in October 2008, the Dow initially tanked about 1000 points on Friday night (our time) before recovering somewhat from that point by the end of that trading session. 

Like then, a trading session is a long time at the moment.


----------



## saiter (21 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think it's safe to say that for today at least, many buyers were waiting for China's lead. IMO, the rest of the day did not mimic the SSE, probably because the XJO found its own legs. 
The attached is a comparison of the price action of the SSE (green) v. XJO (blue). The graphs were downloaded from yahoo finance. I distorted the width of the SSE graph so that I could properly overlay it ontop of the XJO graph.
Some notes: the ASX opens 2 hours before the SSE. The latter also happens to begin trading at 9:30 AM rather than 10 AM, thus trade on the ASX begins 1.5 hours earlier than the SSE (i.e. 11:30 AM EST). Furthermore, the SSE stops trading between 1130-1300 Shanghai time, hence the 'flat line' during that period.

So assuming that we're waiting on China to make our own move, where does that leave us? Well according to bloomberg.com, Europe makes up 20% of all of China's exports, and if Europe keeps going south, then I think that the SSE will follow and so will the ASX.


----------



## tech/a (21 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Only a short term fat lady singing


----------



## nunthewiser (21 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Only a short term fat lady singing




and thats allright by me.......

added to 2 midcaps 

could always be wrong and take a smack in the chops instead


----------



## dlineinvestor (22 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> FWIW
> 
> Im in agreeance with brty on a bounce due.
> 
> NOT calling this the bottom of this overall move BUT am saying that IMO there is a nice quick long trade due right about .......here.




nunthewiser and brty
Perhaps you guys read charts like I do. There u go the Dow makes a gain and into the weekend !! ?? 
What does that tell you about what we feel rather than what we see. 
We've over corrected and the charts were showing it, BHP, RIO, MQG, Blue chip in general along with the XJO. 176 point bounce from the low. Hard to believe it was possible. It would have taken real balls to go long and hold from that low, yes i though about it but didn't hold only hung on for a few points.
Once again charts don't lie. Just like the ascending wedge short signal formed with the neg divergence on the way up. So there was a buy signal on the low as well. ONE THING I WANT TO MAKE CLEAR. I'm not claiming to have picked the bottom only the fact that the opp happened again to what I think most of us thought would happen. I for one would love to see the asx stocks surge higher on Mon. The Greek/Euro resolution has still not been announced but when it does the XJO will I think be flirting with 4500 resistance once again.


----------



## Whiskers (22 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Julia said:


> Or perhaps further drops would simply reflect the reality of the situation, i.e. that nothing much has changed other than a shifting around of paper, contaminating the reasonable balance sheets of e.g. Germany with the junk of Greece.
> 
> For the last two and a half years, there has simply been *one artificial move after another*.  The fundamental problems of excessive debt are still there.




I think that's a pretty good wide angle shot of the big picture... with a bit of emphasis on "one artificial move after another". Not too cynical, but I think a touch of reality that while international, especially US market reform is proving hard and slow, and the 'big' players can still nudge the momentum a bit extra on a bit of fear.

Similarly with reducing national debt.

I recall MRC & Co, who apparently follows the FA data detail more than me, saying there has been a bit of a flight to cash of late... to reshuffle portfolios.



dlineinvestor said:


> Once again charts don't lie. Just like the ascending wedge short signal formed with the neg divergence on the way up. So there was a buy signal on the low as well.




I like your analysis.



> ONE THING I WANT TO MAKE CLEAR. I'm not claiming to have picked the bottom...




Ok then, I will now. 

I really like my most favoured count (white) now, which suggests this would be 5 of the C leg of an expanded Flat from the Jan high.



> The Greek/Euro resolution has still not been announced but when it does the XJO will I think be flirting with 4500 resistance once again.




Yes, that will be the sign for me too. I suspect the Germans in particular may have been in there doing a bit of the 'US PPT thing' to maxamise their returns and put some 'economic' pressure on the US, while Angela Merkel is putting pressure on the US for market reforms. I'd think Obamma has a bit more committment to make some substantial changes than Bush did, hence my leaning more Bullish for the longer term.

Boggo, tech/a, is your count suggesting this is 5 of an abc from the April high or are you agreeing with me?


----------



## Boggo (22 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Boggo, tech/a, is your count suggesting this is 5 of an abc from the April high or are you agreeing with me?




Yes, I think we have had the 5 of A down, hence I am tending to go with this picture, where the W.3 finished depends a bit on which book you read.
Either way I think we are at the beginning of B of an ABC that could finish below 3800 if C = A.
I am just learning this stuff so its just an amateur opinion though, I would like to see a more qualified view.

I am still short on LGL but I did buy BHP instalment warrants on Friday on the assumption that I have seen the end of A.

(Note: this chart is the XJO, click to expand)


----------



## Broadway (23 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Ok then, I will now.




It's interesting that you've called 'the bottom', whiskers.

This may well be the bottom, there are some factors suggesting it, but some factors are missing.

To support a bottom, epcr reached .92 this week (complacency in puts), there's pretty good volume in copper and other metals, as well as the aud and cad. BHP had moderate volume friday morning before the spi rally.

Against a bottom is the absence of serious volume in US stocks, etfs and futures.

But remember the march 2009 bottom was not obvious at all. Many people including pros missed it, hence they had to chase it up for months. No-one expected a 'V' bottom at that time. They were all thinking L or W, and I remember stories about fund managers who 'had' to buy in because they didnt want to be seen to have missed the bottom.

Was all the bad news then any different from the level of bad news we had this week?

No-one rings a bell when its the true bottom, I admire the courage to call it.

Personally I want to see more volume in US stocks, but you could be right whiskers, it could be 'the bottom' and we may never see these low levels again.

Anyone else think we have hit 'the bottom' this week?


----------



## tech/a (23 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Personally I think we are very close to this counts bottom and there is a chance it may have been made.
However I dont believe it is "THE" bottom.
Here is a short term and long term count I currently favor.
These counts can alter as price action alters current counts. but at this point looking forward this is how I see it.

"CLICK TO EXPAND"


----------



## dlineinvestor (23 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech,

Your analysis shows 2000 to be a possiblitliy in 2010 !

That would put bhp at an approx price of 16.00 ..... !

Do you really believe this to be a possibility ?


----------



## tech/a (23 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dlineinvestor said:


> Tech,
> 
> Your analysis shows 2000 to be a possiblitliy in 2010 !
> 
> ...




No

The Wave 5 extension shown is simply an extension of a fib ratio.
While nothing is impossible-----it is highly unlikely!


----------



## The_Snowman (23 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> Playing by the rules so far.
> This was the view of the ASX 200 in MTP chart prediction on the 14th, the min target for W.5 at 4396 has arrived today.
> *The typical is predicted at 4285 !*
> 
> (click to expand)




somehow, I am just not thinking that it is going up from here  although some bounce is probably on the cards


----------



## blueray (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just my obersavation, recently XAO seems to follow SSE more closely than it is to DOW. At 11:30 today, SSE opend and soon was up more than 2%, at the same time, XJO did a about turn and now it is up more than 1%


----------



## tech/a (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



blueray said:


> Just my obersavation, recently XAO seems to follow SSE more closely than it is to DOW. At 11:30 today, SSE opend and soon was up more than 2%, at the same time, XJO did a about turn and now it is up more than 1%




Maybe so but the analysis of the XJO
doesnt involve either the DJIA or the SSE in that so far presented.
Are you going to discuss the correlation and how it can be used to our advantage.
Would be an interesting exercise.


----------



## dlineinvestor (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No one can guarantee the outcome but perhaps you've all noticed the ominus ascending wedge pattern forming.
Appears to be a projected top out level of 4400.


----------



## skyQuake (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Missing a bit of volume on the wedge there..

SPI looks fairly bullish on the daily.

2days of running after all that crap earlier doesn't seem too much.


----------



## tech/a (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



blueray said:


> Just my obersavation, recently XAO seems to follow SSE more closely than it is to DOW. At 11:30 today, SSE opend and soon was up more than 2%, at the same time, XJO did a about turn and now it is up more than 1%




SSE not open today


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thats wrong.

 up 3.63%

lol how can the Nikkei be up -0.06% ?


----------



## blueray (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> SSE not open today




Er... not too sure what you mean by "sse not open today",  Shanghai composite index is open today and it is up more than 3% so far


----------



## tech/a (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Thats wrong.
> 
> up 3.63%
> 
> lol how can the Nikkei be up -0.06% ?






blueray said:


> Er... not too sure what you mean by "sse not open today",  Shanghai composite index is open today and it is up more than 3% so far




Better tell CNN then.

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/asia/


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

CNN??? Are you kidding? Up a negative amount just abouts sums up the worth of that data.


by the way Hong Kong, China & Japan have lunch breaks.


----------



## tech/a (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Good point.
I'm just quoting off their site.
This is the latest but chances are that will
change in an hr or so.
Shanghi is now up 3.14% which is what it was when it was closed!


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You want a free real time chart of China use this,

CSI300

http://www.google.com/finance?client=gd-stocks-gadget-1.0.0.2&q=SHA:000300

Shanghai,

http://www.google.com/finance?client=gd-stocks-gadget-1.0.0.2&q=SHA:000001

As usual the media focus on the wrong one because they are idiots. The CSI300 is the broader index which you will be following in 5 years time when China buys out the rest of the bankrupt US. The Chinese has just started trading futures on the CSI300 and surely will be the market for fellow punters looking for growth and liquidity when they open it to outside trading if the kospi is any indication of size.


----------



## dlineinvestor (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Missing a bit of volume on the wedge there




Yes IG aus200 doesn't have volume on this particular index.
I haven't found any charts showing the aus200 with volume ?


----------



## Kryzz (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dlineinvestor said:


> Yes IG aus200 doesn't have volume on this particular index.
> I haven't found any charts showing the aus200 with volume ?




This is norgate data with amibroker ..

Perhaps another low volume rally before further falls (re-test that old support level)?, U.S. futures currently in the red.


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kryzz said:


> U.S. futures currently in the red.




Best thing for this rally would be for the US to start the week down. IMO.


----------



## satanoperca (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Best thing for this rally would be for the US to start the week down. IMO.




Why so?

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



satanoperca said:


> Why so?
> 
> Cheers




Generally pros will fade the open of days and weeks especially when its against the higher term trend.

Have a look at the way the FTSE has just gone tonight.


----------



## sammy84 (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Generally pros will fade the open of days and weeks especially when its against the higher term trend.
> 
> Have a look at the way the FTSE has just gone tonight.




I would love to knows your thoughts on todays price action TH?


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> I would love to knows your thoughts on todays price action TH?




any of these would do,

:bricks1:



:fan

:bad:



Of considerable concern is the US futs down some 1.5% from their overnight close. Will be an arvo of carefully watching late Asia, Europe & US open.

Of even more concern is I just read Whiskers bottom call of a few days ago. :


----------



## brty (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I dumped several positions on the open this morning from late Thursday buys. Made a bit, lost a bit, happy to be out with this current volatility.

Better to play safe than sorry, defence, defence, defence. 

Lots of individual support levels were taken out Friday, with the corresponding bounce that was expected. It is still possible that the Bottom was on Friday, but a new closing low today (XAO) will reduce that likelyhood.

brty


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> Lots of individual support levels were taken out Friday, with the corresponding bounce that was expected. It is still possible that the Bottom was on Friday, but a new closing low today (XAO) will reduce that likelyhood.




Best case here for bulls IMO would be a continual fall for Asia into the close, a crap open for Europe resulting in the US opening down over 2% on big volume

Then Whiskers can step up and lift a few 100,000s bids in the futs to bring it back positive. Setting up a nice low print early in the week.


----------



## skyQuake (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Capitulation tonight hopefully.

Also MSCI rebal tomorrow. A fair few aussie stock added should have a nice spurt up.


----------



## Whiskers (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Best case here for bulls IMO would be a continual fall for Asia into the close, a crap open for Europe resulting in the US opening down over 2% on big volume




Yeah, it's a safe bet the bottom will be tested pretty vigeriously for awhile. At least European markets seems pretty even tonight for a change.



> Then Whiskers can step up and lift a few 100,000s bids in the futs to bring it back positive. Setting up a nice low print early in the week.




What with claims major US securities firms are allegedly keeping their hands in their pockets rather than providing liquidity in the market, it could be a rocky bottom... but, I'll give them a call to tell them I've called 'bottom' so they can start buying again.


----------



## tech/a (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Id be suprised if your far off the bottom.
4100 ish for me and <4000 all bets off.


----------



## saiter (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Capitulation tonight hopefully.




Why capitulation? IIRC, the only reason we capitulated last year was because governments worldwide were throwing money around. Now there's nothing left to give; instead, taxes are being increased/introduced and spending is being cut.


----------



## nunthewiser (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> I dumped several positions on the open this morning from late Thursday buys. Made a bit, lost a bit, happy to be out with this current volatility.
> 
> Better to play safe than sorry, defence, defence, defence.
> 
> brty




FWIW,

i,m stil in positions , not been stopped out as yet .. still green on MGX BHP .

ANZ PLA both sitting very close to my pre defined stops and dissapointed i  missed a quick skim on PLA from other days catch.Tomorows after initial flurry action will decide there fate.

smaller positions wider stops but still a loss nuntheless at present.


----------



## tech/a (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> nuntheless




Thought that was one of your relatives!


----------



## nunthewiser (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Thought that was one of your relatives!




Thats my new alter alias im gunna use to congratulate myself with if i get it right


----------



## leedskalnin (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Id be suprised if your far off the bottom.
> 4100 ish for me and <4000 all bets off.




my 3cents worth , if the usd/inx ploughs through 89.92 up to 95ish , yep 4100 (4068 for me) .

excuse the poor photography


----------



## nulla nulla (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Personaly I think it is parachute time. The engines are stalling, the wings are falling off and there is a big hole in the floor and I can't see the bottom.


----------



## nulla nulla (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Next stop 3735?


----------



## brty (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nulla,

That 3735 level is the next support, it is the level I have been thinking about. Hopefully we don't get there tomorrow 

This is set up now that if we don't get a crash/ fat fingers day in the next couple, then it should be looked at as a bullish sign, at least for the short term.

brty


----------



## Dark1975 (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well currently the dow futures down -300(not that it will decide the dow's day of trade).Very interesting times.Either way im getting itchy fingers.Any one get that sinking feeling.


----------



## satanoperca (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The SPI 200 futs is -10. Just goes to show we dont always follow the DJ especially after a big down day ourselves. Maybe we lead the world, Kevin KRUDD told me so.

We are also nearly smack on the 38% retracement level from trough to peak. Not something I pay to much attention to but never the less it is at that level.

Cheers

Holding both longs and shorts, a bit of a fight between the two.


----------



## dlineinvestor (25 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Caution:This post is purely speculative and should not be used for financial gain :

If history is anything to go by then from this chart we had a "Top" and we had a "Bottom" and we had the subprime crisis.

So once we learn how severe this Euro crisis and South Korea thing is then we can compare it to the past to guage a poss support level.

In Fib we see 50% as an important level 4062 on this chart.

Is this crisis worse than the subprime ? "Heck of a question"

In many cases I've seen a chart turn in between 50% and 38.2% That would be expected anything below that is not good.

IMO 3760 would be worst case. That's just using my gut.

Just looking at Slow Stochastic a cross on weekly would be a start, looks like we have a way to go.


----------



## nulla nulla (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All the bad news coming out of Europe only serves to amplify the panic in world markets. 
The gaps opening up in our markets, as per the post above, show we are heading into oversold areas. 
The biggest problem effecting Australia at the moment is the withdrawal of overseas investment from our share market, across the bourse, and the selling off of the Aussie dollar as investors move back to the u.s dollar.
Until that stops, there is only one direction our market will go.


----------



## tech/a (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Now I agree with Whiskers.
Particularly after last night and todays trading.

Mind you I still feel the lowest low is still not in yet and wont be until later in the year---but for now I'm confident its in place.
See analysis above for future possible price action.

POST #8063

*T/H had it spot--agree.--BROADWAY*


----------



## Broadway (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Best case here for bulls IMO would be a continual fall for Asia into the close, a crap open for Europe resulting in the US opening down over 2% on big volume
> 
> Then Whiskers can step up and lift a few 100,000s bids in the futs to bring it back positive. Setting up a nice low print early in the week.




crystal ball.


----------



## Trembling Hand (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



leedskalnin said:


> excuse the poor photography



Mate!! Have a look at these threads for ways to capture charts rather than taking photos of the screen!!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=45322
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1401


Broadway said:


> crystal ball.



 Just goes to show  . Punters act the same the world over. You don't need TA you just need an EA.

Now while I've got the markets ear I would like three days of reduced volatility with a gradual up move into Friday. See what you can organise Whiskers.


----------



## leedskalnin (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Mate!! Have a look at these threads for ways to capture charts rather than taking photos of the screen!!




this dog is too old to learn new tricks bud, here's the link http://quote2.fxtrek.com/Misc/promoChart.asp?df=iwizard2 , I dunno how to print it ???


----------



## Trembling Hand (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All you have to do is pop the chart out into an individual window which you have done. Hold down the "Alt" button (bottom left of keyboard)and hit the "PrtScrn" button (top right on keyboard)then open Paint which you will find under Start>Programs>Accessories and hit "Ctrl" & "V". then save somewhere you can find it later to post as an attachment.


----------



## sammy84 (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If this an analysis or how to print screen thread 

Looks like there will be a few trying to fade the market today, still might be the potential for a squeeze later in the day. Volumes haven't been that high the last few days however, so there might not be that many shorters to squeeze.


----------



## explod (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Now I agree with Whiskers.
> Particularly after last night and todays trading.
> 
> Mind you I still feel the lowest low is still not in yet and wont be until later in the year---but for now I'm confident its in place.
> ...




Agree t/a,  it is now in a down trend and the low pointer of the other week will be confirmed in the next few trading days.   Unfortunately there does not seem to be a lot of support beyond that..

It will show us the way.


----------



## Trembling Hand (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> If this an analysis or how to print screen thread




Neither. Its a place for smart A@#$ and A-Holes it seems.


----------



## leedskalnin (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> All you have to do is pop the chart out into an individual window which you have done. Hold down the "Alt" button (bottom left of keyboard)and hit the "PrtScrn" button (top right on keyboard)then open Paint which you will find under Start>Programs>Accessories and hit "Ctrl" & "V". then save somewhere you can find it later to post as an attachment.




Thanks TH , and now that I know how to print thanks Sammy here is some Dow analysis directly related to XAO analysis.

20 may and 25th weekly show completed RH side of head of H&S
26 may is yet to be completed tomorrow , so my best guess is a down day Dow 9910ish then up we go.


----------



## tech/a (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



leedskalnin said:


> Thanks TH , and now that I know how to print thanks Sammy here is some Dow analysis directly related to XAO analysis.
> 
> 20 may and 25th weekly show completed RH side of head of H&S
> 26 may is yet to be completed tomorrow , so my best guess is a down day Dow 9910ish then up we go.




Is there a chart in there somewhere.
Looks like a Road map for Sydney to Melbourne.


----------



## explod (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Is there a chart in there somewhere.
> Looks like a Road map for Sydney to Melbourne.




Or another assault on Mount Everest in an abstract way.

Darryl Morely in the herals Sun was talking about the All Ords today and said:-



> The All Ords is made up of about 500 stocks and when the shares of a comapny fall in price and its market capitalisation falls below a certain level, the stock is removed from the index.
> 
> Conversely, as other stocks increase in capitalisation they are added to the index.
> 
> In effect, poor performers are removed and rising stars are added so that, over time, the index must rise, as it always contains the better performing stocks




If we look at the Dow, Fannie Mai and Freddie Mack were removed as were some of the giant banks that collapsed.  So what does that really say about  markets and the great fiancial wizzes who say, hold for the long term Son.  Of course proper funds add and drop them off too but most people I suspect think its all just wonderful when in fact its all c...pola

Anyway just some musings and off topic interference in your analysis guys.


----------



## Trembling Hand (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Anyway just some musings and off topic interference in your analysis guys.




You needed the Herald Sun to tell you that! 


leedskalnin,

 what is that?


----------



## dlineinvestor (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The market is waiting ....


----------



## explod (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> You needed the Herald Sun to tell you that!
> 
> 
> leedskalnin,
> ...




Gee you give me a hard time, I realised it many years back, is why I am so sardonic at the markets et al., but thought others may benefit from the ramblings.  I will just have to go away all together with meself.  But you could be right, only bright sparks on this thread anyway.

Sorry to be off topic


----------



## Logique (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Leg down to 4,000 -on the UKX (FTSE100) perhaps, chart below. W-shaped recovery (I hope). The engine driving this market is the fear in Europe, and that's frustrating, because the economic recovery in the US looks steady. 

I don't understand Elliott Waves, and must make do with a more primitive analysis, but the import of the FTSE100 chart below is quite clear to me. 

If you think its avoidable then you must think we'll magically start getting positive announcements out of Europe. Or that the Australian proposed RSPT will magically disappear, although that has adopted lesser significance now in comparison to the shadow cast by Europe.

Don't mean to rain on anyone's parade, I'd like nothing better than the XAO to bounce off 4,000 support. But this is starting to look horribly like the same time last year.


----------



## namrog (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> leedskalnin,
> 
> what is that?




Have a close look at the chart and leedskalnin's avatar, and the chart certainly looks like Duby's arm, hand, and finger ??


----------



## nunthewiser (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Neither. Its a place for smart A@#$ and A-Holes it seems.





Hehehehe 

Amen.

by the way , good call.


----------



## tech/a (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Neither. Its a place for smart A@#$ and A-Holes it seems.




Personally I wouldnt have been so harsh on myself!


----------



## dlineinvestor (26 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Probably a bit bold ... probably just a hunch ... 

Is it possible that we are nearing this correction ?

That chart I posted in #8114 has substance recovery signals in it.
1 Positive divergence on a daily is some thing to consider and 
2 There is a surprising amount of rejection of the lows too .... ??? ...

Myself I have not heard of any amplified negative tones on the crisis in europe in fact I can't find much on the subject other than the obvious reasons it started.
Korean tensions have gone quiet.

I've missed the bottom twice now and certainly don't want that to happen again.



Will have to wait and see


----------



## leedskalnin (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Is there a chart in there somewhere.
> Looks like a Road map for Sydney to Melbourne.




Fair call tech. 
I didn't explain myself too well , I needed one more down move to complete my weekly chart on the Dow and that has happened today , I was expecting around 9910 but 9974 is good enough for me . Top chart is my pre open weekly Dow (today) , bottom chart is today's close . I never got the gist of EW but I guess this could be the end of wave A down and start of wave B up , so I'm feeling bullish in the interim .


----------



## tech/a (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dlineinvestor said:


> Probably a bit bold ... probably just a hunch ...
> 
> Is it possible that we are nearing this correction ?
> 
> ...




Before you get quietly comfortable and think its safe to go back in the water.
there is a long term Cancer growing in world economies.
Some know its there 90% of the world have no idea.
This is one of many cancers but is being used to treat all the other cancers.
Its the government propensity of printing money to plug short term debt issues.

GDP V DEBT

Zimbabwe/Greece/Iceland/Japan/Spain/Portugal all are known.

But take a look at the list below and more importantly take a look at WORLD GDP V DEBT.
Its getting close to the point where WORLD GDP wont be able to service the world DEBT.

Click on this link to see the complete list.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html


----------



## lenny (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thats some scary facts!

Thanks Tech/a


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Last nights action in the US was stronger than the Dow & S&P numbers indicated. For pretty much the first time in May we had some nice spec funds chasing spec stocks. The small and mid caps were positive which is a very welcome sign. They lead the March, April rally. Seems to be flowing on to Asian markets.


----------



## saiter (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Last nights action in the US was stronger than the Dow & S&P numbers indicated. *For pretty much the first time in May we had some nice spec funds chasing spec stocks. The small and mid caps were positive which is a very welcome sign.* They lead the March, April rally. Seems to be flowing on to Asian markets.




TH, how do you know that its specifically the spec funds?


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



saiter said:


> TH, how do you know that its specifically the spec funds?




When funds that are aggressive put money into the market they don't buy Walmart or Kraft. They go for the mid-small caps (which aren't that small by Aussie standards, 1/2 bil avg Mrk cap).

Defensive funds move bonds, USD & Big "safer" companies. Risk money moves Commods, AUD, CAD, Asian Equities etc. A lot can be learnt from throwing the charts away and looking at how asset classes are performing compared to others.


----------



## tech/a (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> When funds that are aggressive put money into the market they don't buy Walmart or Kraft. They go for the mid-small caps (which aren't that small by Aussie standards, 1/2 bil avg Mrk cap).
> 
> Defensive funds move bonds, USD & Big "safer" companies. Risk money moves Commods, AUD, CAD, Asian Equities etc. A lot can be learnt from throwing the charts away and looking at how asset classes are performing compared to others.




Very true T/H but why would you not use charts to help you in reading performance and perhaps picking the more subtle changes.

If you didnt "see" this buying without observing price action on charts how did you see it?


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Very true T/H but why would you not use charts to help you in reading performance and perhaps picking the more subtle changes.



Because people see what they want to see in squiggly lines. They put on MACD & RSI & every other thing and try to look for divergence & head and shoulder patterns and of course always end up looking at the wrong thing at the wrong time.



tech/a said:


> If you didnt "see" this buying without observing price action on charts how did you see it?




A simple quote screen. I haven't looked at a Russell 2000 chart for 2 months but I knew it had outperformed from Feb to early May and very much underperformed since the start of May. Same same for AUDJY for example. I also knew that in spite of the DOW/S&P500 chart from last night that there was a bit of money chasing prices around the place. This screen would seem to confirm that view,


----------



## tech/a (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Fair enough 
Thanks.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> A simple quote screen. I haven't looked at a Russell 2000 chart for 2 months but I knew it had outperformed from Feb to early May and very much underperformed since the start of May.




Is it just me...or is the Russell 2000 not actually on that quote screen? : 

Gotta love NT, I use the market analyzer myself too


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Is it just me...or is the Russell 2000 not actually on that quote screen? :




Different setup for different times of the day. That ones for Asia. After all I only have 5 screens.


----------



## dutchie (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> After all I only have 5 screens.




I count 7


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Different setup for different times of the day. That ones for Asia. After all I only have 5 screens.




Haha yeah I know, just stirrin  

I used to wonder why people needed so many screens, but now I understand, will have to get a couple more before I'm much older!


----------



## dlineinvestor (27 May 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This post, I don't want it to serve as a swipe at anyone but more for those that balk at their own signals when they arrive ....Just do it !



Trembling Hand said:


> Because people see what they want to see in squiggly lines. They put on MACD & RSI & every other thing and try to look for divergence & head and shoulder patterns and of course always end up looking at the wrong thing at the wrong time.




That chart I posted in #8114 has substance recovery signals in it.
1 Positive divergence on a daily is some thing to consider and
2 There is a surprising amount of rejection of the lows too .... ??? ...

Timing your entry is paramount, that's what I was questioning in my charts.

Looks like I was reading them the right way and not seeing what I wanted to see.

It was time to get long even if it was for a quick trade.

Shorter time frames, indicators can be dodgey. Daily charts are better odds.

I must learn to take my own advice ! 

U get that


----------



## brianwh (3 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm picking up comments at the moment by technical analysts that the market should bounce to the 4600 level or slightly above over the coming weeks and then the charts are showing that there will be a significant move lower to levels below 4000. I understand that the Elliott Wave charts are showing this.

I am aware that proponents of Elliott Wave theory only claim that their charts are indicating the probabilities of certain outcomes, but if these charts are widely used, wouldn't this type of prediction be self-fulfilling?


----------



## satanoperca (3 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brianwh said:


> I'm picking up comments at the moment by technical analysts that the market should bounce to the 4600 level or slightly above over the coming weeks and then the charts are showing that there will be a significant move lower to levels below 4000. I understand that the Elliott Wave charts are showing this.




If we get another day like today, that we will reach that target this week. 

Cheers


----------



## Unnamed User (3 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brianwh said:


> I am aware that proponents of Elliott Wave theory only claim that their charts are indicating the probabilities of certain outcomes, *but if these charts are widely used, wouldn't this type of prediction be self-fulfilling?*




But not everyone uses technical analysis.

Plenty who do use TA don't use EW and think it is bunkem.

More don't use it than do.


----------



## Kryzz (5 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kryzz said:


> Perhaps another low volume rally before further falls (re-test that old support level)?




Well, here we are now, seems to have played out nicely, US indicies all down >3% on Fridays close following NFP data...Monday should open with a bang!

nb: dunno why my data has that downspike


----------



## Logique (8 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO and the DJIA weekly charts, 29 EMA and 50 EMA. Both show that we need a circuit breaker and fast.  Interesting in europe how it had been about purity of economic theory by stimulus spending to avoid recession, but now it's all about sacrifice and tight budgets, exactly the opposite, and worrying to economists.


----------



## tech/a (8 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dlineinvestor said:


> This post, I don't want it to serve as a swipe at anyone but more for those that balk at their own signals when they arrive ....Just do it !
> 
> 
> 
> ...




In this case the analysis proved to be wrong.There is nothing wrong with analysis being in correct.Its what you do with it that is important.
The rising wedge in a falling market was and is a strong pattern---we saw it back in early May.



> Because people see what they want to see in squiggly lines. They put on MACD & RSI & every other thing and try to look for divergence & head and shoulder patterns and of course always end up looking at the wrong thing at the wrong time.




There are things to see in squiggly lines and in bids hitting market and in Elliott Analysis. They dont have to be made up.
But you are right in that some analysts seem to need to justify analysis that is proven to be in correct.

Analysis can also be proven to be correct.
After all ---- all analysis is doing is providing us with a point where we believe price will not fall below our buy price and when selling where we believe price will not go substantially higher than our exit price.(When long)


----------



## tech/a (8 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Likely this could be wave "B" in an ABC correction.
Giving the final completion of the 3 wave counter move in this Down trend a target of 4613
Trading below 4299 would prove this analysis wrong.
If correct then we would see a completion of the corrective move with a further 5 waves down.


----------



## Whiskers (8 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Likely this could be wave "B" in an ABC correction.
> Giving the final completion of the 3 wave counter move in this Down trend a target of 4613
> Trading below 4299 would prove this analysis wrong.
> If correct then we would see a completion of the corrective move with a further 5 waves down.




Yeah, I'm still fairly bullish based on a FA.

On TA I'm looking for at least 4613, maybe 4850ish from a H&S target.

This next leg up should define whether it's a 3 of a continuing uptrend or B of a correction.


----------



## tech/a (12 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XJO still on track with analysis.
this is a daily.

Click to enlarge.


----------



## dutchie (13 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> XJO still on track with analysis.
> this is a daily.
> 
> Click to enlarge.




tech/a thanks for the chart

(shouldn't the fib. 1.00 be placed on the blue circled  2?)


----------



## tech/a (13 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



dutchie said:


> tech/a thanks for the chart
> 
> (shouldn't the fib. 1.00 be placed on the blue circled  2?)




Sure can be if your looking for the retracement of the wave 3.
I'm looking at the corrective % for the whole move High to Low.


----------



## Whiskers (16 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Is everyone still bullish?

I'm still happy with 4850ish from that H&S target, if nothing else to pin a number on.

Also thinking we're about at a minute iii of a minor iii wave, hence a decent kick is coming up.


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (16 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Throw up a chart Whiskers...


----------



## Edwood (17 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I'm still happy with 4850ish from that H&S target, if nothing else to pin a number on.




looks feasible Whiskers, should be plenty of shorts out there to help push it higher for a while, altho we're bound to get bumps along the way


----------



## Broadway (17 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some might get nervous about their longs.
Or maybe that european bond leading story is somewhat stale.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-i...widening-european-bond-spread-20100616115723/


----------



## MRC & Co (17 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Reckon the next shoe to drop is one of 3 things:

- Portugal downgrade
- Chinese/US trade wars
- G20 finmin meeting on financial regulation

Whichever is first will spark the next down leg.


----------



## explod (17 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Reckon the next shoe to drop is one of 3 things:
> 
> - Portugal downgrade
> - Chinese/US trade wars
> ...




Agree, particularly battles on trade and perceptions of currency manipulations.    Another factor are indications by European nations and the UK to reduce spending on defence, some by up to 30%, is going to make US military producers disturbed.   

There are a lot of very complex intertwined issues quite apart from what we have understood on the GFC coming to a head of late.   We need someone to shine a torch. 

Bothersome times indeed IMO


----------



## Whiskers (17 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> Throw up a chart Whiskers...




Maybe tomorow mate. I,ve got some software problems atm... but still the same as above chart with some (dubious  ) minute and minor EW counts on the more recent candles.



Edwood said:


> looks feasible Whiskers, should be plenty of shorts out there to help push it higher for a while, altho we're bound to get bumps along the way




Yep, looks like it was a little bump today.



MRC & Co said:


> Reckon the next shoe to drop is one of 3 things:
> 
> - Portugal downgrade
> - Chinese/US trade wars
> ...




The Chinese/US trade war certainly has the potential to hick-up the market, but I think I'll go with financial regulation as the next big thing to move the market since it's been my favourite hobby horse since the GFC and seems to have faded into the background with Obama being pre occupied with the BP spill...  but I'm not sure it will move the market down. Depending what unfolds it might just be the trigger to give retail investors confidence to dip in a bit more.


----------



## MRC & Co (18 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> The Chinese/US trade war certainly has the potential to hick-up the market, but I think I'll go with financial regulation as the next big thing to move the market since it's been my favourite hobby horse since the GFC and seems to have faded into the background with Obama being pre occupied with the BP spill...  but I'm not sure it will move the market down. Depending what unfolds it might just be the trigger to give retail investors confidence to dip in a bit more.




Banks are listed companies, cutting their bottom line ----------> falling share price.


----------



## Whiskers (19 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Banks are listed companies, cutting their bottom line ----------> falling share price.




Yep, that's true... but the bottom line for the whole financial sector (not just banks) has been very volatile under current regulation, completely wipeing out many financial institutions and putting a suspicious/cautious cloud over the whole market.

Assuming the regulation and oversight is done well, as the key players driving tighter regulation are trying to prevent the GFC type crisis/losses and necessary bailout's again... I'm thinking stronger invester confidence should return to financials and the whole market generally.

My main premise for this is that people generally would prefer not to invest in a company if they thought it could be responsible for, or caught up in a GFC type incident again... that they would put a higher premium on a more stable business reigned in by good regulation and oversight than one that had free reign to exploit the system too far and bust at a moments notice. 

I think if people had a choice of risking their capital for those type of risky returns again v tighter regulated and less extreme returns and risk of loosing their capital... they mostly would choose the later.


----------



## Whiskers (19 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> Throw up a chart Whiskers...




There you go mate... but as I say my minute count (yellow) in particular is dubious since I don't go to a lot of trouble with it unless I'm in a trade and I don't trade indicies.

But, looking at it a bit closer now... I like it.


----------



## tech/a (22 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Likely this could be wave "B" in an ABC correction.
> Giving the final completion of the 3 wave counter move in this Down trend a target of 4613
> Trading below 4299 would prove this analysis wrong.
> If correct then we would see a completion of the corrective move with a further 5 waves down.






tech/a said:


> XJO still on track with analysis.
> this is a daily.
> 
> Click to enlarge.




Going down!


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (22 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Going down!




Going from Left to Right..!


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Going down!




Our friends up north have different ideas. Yuan reset by the looks of that


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (22 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Elliot Wave Theorists - this could be the next leg down, anyone keen to speculate on targets... :bricks1:


----------



## Mactavish (22 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

target: 3900


----------



## Tanaka (22 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I see the XJO between 3500-3600 by the end of the year. The market is not only testing Fibonacci levels but has hit 50 day moving average, furthermore 'Megaphone Top' pattern suggests retracement.


----------



## sammy84 (22 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The 50 day moving average knows all??? I prefer the 68 day average myself 

A lot of people calling for renewed strength lower, a little bit of caution and keeping in mind a contrarian view can't hurt. Trading is never that easy.


----------



## tech/a (23 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My update / take on current move.

A=C so that is copy book.

Expected completion of wave 5 at around 4100.

Highly likely (If it plays out that the Wave will extend to 3700 ish as it plays out a 5 wave pattern completing the 1st 5 waves down-3 waves (ABC) back up to correct then again down 5 to complete wave A of a larger pattern).

I have a short play on from 4598 and will be adding to it if the moves play out---stop 4640.
*
Click to expand*


----------



## Boggo (23 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Worst case scenario perhaps from my post a month ago, is it still a possibility, the up leg played by the rules, sub 3800 if C = A ??

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=556429&postcount=8061


----------



## tech/a (25 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> I have a short play on from 4598 and will be adding to it if the moves play out---stop 4640.




Going to plan
160pts currently
Stop 4525
Havent added yet.


----------



## Broadway (25 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Going to plan
> 160pts currently
> Stop 4525
> Havent added yet.




Some volume in Europe tech.


----------



## tech/a (26 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Some volume in Europe tech.




Yes Broadway.
I feel this maybe an interim last gasp from holders who are frustrated with the falling market.
I note the US rallied hard after the Europe close but failed to finish in the black.
I'm expecting some positive correction very soon before the big falls.

CLICK TO EXPAND

*ON Elliott.*
While I dont think Elliott is pin point accurate I like to and do use it as a Direction finder/follower. Gives me something to expect and if it doesnt happen gives me an lternative expectation which I can anticipate.
Frankly I like the way it can alter counts. It paints the anticipated picture as it pans out and then gives another----often the anticipated picture turns out to be the ACTUAL picture like it has so far.---now of course having said that it will stuff up!
There are other forms of analysis (Range and volume) I find very helpful in managing a trade. Very Simple analysis.
Stop still 4525


----------



## RazzaDazzla (27 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech,

I like your analysis! Are you short using the Sep SPI contract? If so, is your stop based on the SPI Sep price or is it based on the XJO?

I personally dove head first in my first SPI trade on Fri being short at 4436. Looking at the intraday chart I was amazed at how well I did to pick the top. I put this down to pure luck more than anything as previous paper trading attempts have been woeful!

Showing a small profit ATM, the good ole fear and greed are nagging at me. 

I'm just hoping I can put emotions aside and manage this trade as 'correctly' as possible.


----------



## ginar (27 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We are at a bit of a crossroads here . Nice downsloping channel which tech has ridden nicely . Coming up and testing TLS on a higher time frame . potential pivot here . Structure is solid with nice defined channels on both time frames


----------



## Broadway (27 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting tech volume.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX


----------



## tech/a (28 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Have covered my short position.


----------



## Wysiwyg (28 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well done on your SPI futures contract short sell Tech/A. Did you do so as a hedging strategy or simply seized the opportunity when it presented itself.


----------



## tech/a (28 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

W

Ive watched many longer term moves some Ive seen and commented on which have moved 2000pts +
Trading much shorter term.
They dont come up all that often but when they do the reward to risk is well worth the trade.
I dont think this is over by a long stretch yet but analysis tells me the balance has tipped to the long side albeit to be confirmed.

So this time I decided not to watch.


----------



## jersey10 (28 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Have covered my short position.




Tech/A when do you anticipate shorting for the next move down? or do you not plan to short again?


----------



## tech/a (28 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jersey10 said:


> Tech/A when do you anticipate shorting for the next move down? or do you not plan to short again?




Ill be following the Trade as it un folds.
The chart above gives you an indication of how I'll be trading it---if of course the analysis plays out.

Ill post anything of interest.


----------



## Market Sniper (29 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Any change in stop loss Tech?


----------



## tech/a (29 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Market Sniper said:


> Any change in stop loss Tech?




Trade is closed.


----------



## satanoperca (29 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Trade is closed.




Hi Tech/a,

From a technical perspective what has changed your mind that further falls arn't going to come to pass.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (29 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



satanoperca said:


> Hi Tech/a,
> 
> From a technical perspective what has changed your mind that further falls arn't going to come to pass.
> 
> Cheers




I have no doubt further falls will certainly be happening.
I am however expecting a pause in the downward thrust for a little while.
I may not have the timing perfect but the risk to the upside (From my analysis above) is to me greater than the possible gain letting the trade run.

As mentioned I am looking for re entry.


----------



## tech/a (29 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Short again at 4359


----------



## RazzaDazzla (29 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech,

Interesting that you're short again.

IIRC you believed the Wave 1 low had been set and you covered. On todays breaking of yesterdays XJO low of 4368 I assume your analysis is saying the Wave 1 low has not been set yet?

What are the signs to look for that will show if/when this Wave 1 low being set? Or is the XJO looking nastier and we could be looking to break the next wave B low of 4,300?

Also, what are the signs you are looking for to prove your current assessment incorrect?


----------



## satanoperca (29 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Short again at 4359




2 hours can make a world of difference as the story unfolds.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (29 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Tech,
> 
> Interesting that you're short again.
> 
> ...






satanoperca said:


> 2 hours can make a world of difference as the story unfolds.
> 
> Cheers




Should be a gymnast!

Razzle/satanoperca

I went out of the office and came back to a new low.
So Yes wave 1 proved not to be in yet.
I would have left it but----China was dropping like a stone.
Highly likely this could be exhaustive for this move---will wait and see and stay on the right side of the market as long as I can without increasing my risk.

This could also mean that this move becomes a complex corrective move rather than a copy book 5 wave impulse move.
Lets wait another 2 hrs and see what unfolds---err few days!


----------



## The_Snowman (29 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Here are some numbers for you all


----------



## tech/a (30 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sold short at 4252
Now long 4253 stop 4243
My long term trade plan is still in tact---Net Short.
Throwing in a short term opportunity if all goes well.
Low risk.


----------



## MRC & Co (30 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Highly likely this could be exhaustive for this move---
> 
> This could also mean that this move becomes a complex corrective move rather than a copy book 5 wave impulse move.
> Lets wait another 2 hrs and see what unfolds---err few days!




Not sure what all that means, but don't think we have seen the end of this move, ADP coming up, then ISM, which should front-run and be bigger than an illiquid non-farms.

1000 S&P coming right up is where my bet sits!


----------



## tech/a (30 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Covered long 4265

On the side lines.


----------



## satanoperca (30 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If todays rally from low keeps up on the XAO, I will be closing the majority of my shorts and also sit on my hands.

Cheers


----------



## Wysiwyg (30 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> On the side lines.



Tech/A, you must be on the cusp of great things trading the financial markets. With your experience, practical application and solid capital base there are no limits. While reading about Kevin Bruce I thought how, from what I have seen, you are capable of achieving more trading the financial markets than most of us aim for. In saying this though, you don't know everything and there are lessons to be learned by all of us each and every day. Good work.


> WHO IS KEVIN BRUCE?
> 
> Kevin Bruce, while nearly anonymous to the trading world, earned a fortune of $100 million trading as a trend following trader. How did he do it?
> 
> Bruce follows a strategy he first developed while a graduate student at the University of Georgia. Since then, he's added risk-management techniques. "It's mathematical. It tells us when to buy and sell and how much to buy and sell based on the odds of that trade being a winner or a loser," he says.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (30 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Covered long 4265
> 
> On the side lines.




Good work Tech! If you don't mind disclosing, how many points did you end up netting since you first started short? Also, were you short using the Sep SPI contract? Or another derivative/contract?

I personally was "aiming" to capture the same downward trend that you did. I ended up catching a measly net 72 points from such a huge move south! I kicked myself when I reassessed and saw that I should have caught at least 300 points!

Still, this was my first venture in trading the SPI so I guess you live and learn. In hindsight, my biggest fear was seeing a small profit of 20-40 points reverse into a 20-40 point loss. Had I had the kahunas to ride through this period and not keep looking at my screen and just let the market do its thing, I would have been much better off!

Another problem I had when I re-entered was my stop was way to close to the action. I was stopped out just after yesterdays day time close. Had this stop not been hit I would have been part of the 3% drop over night.

Still, you live and learn and I hope next time I will know better and not let fear get the better of me.

I personally am hopping to see a small bounce in the next 2 weeks. I then hope to be part of another downtrend that I believe will go under 4,000. We'll see what the rpice does between now and then


----------



## Wysiwyg (30 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Still, you live and learn and I hope next time I will know better and not let fear get the better of me.




This is the phase I went through awhile ago. No plan or set of rules to trade by. Jumping at shadows with no tested strategy. Fear of losing, over confident when winning. Emotional roller-coaster type stuff.


----------



## tech/a (30 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Wysiwyg said:


> Tech/A, you must be on the cusp of great things trading the financial markets. With your experience, practical application and solid capital base there are no limits. While reading about Kevin Bruce I thought how, from what I have seen, you are capable of achieving more trading the financial markets than most of us aim for. In saying this though, you don't know everything and there are lessons to be learned by all of us each and every day. Good work.




How much do you really need to know.
After 16 yrs Im afraid Ive found out that its not a lot.
Mind you you have to know a hell of a lot to understand what the not a lot is.



RazzaDazzla said:


> Good work Tech! If you don't mind disclosing, how many points did you end up netting since you first started short? Also, were you short using the Sep SPI contract? Or another derivative/contract?




September SPI
I havent tallied it up but with 1 and 2 contract trades around 300 ($8K)



> I personally was "aiming" to capture the same downward trend that you did. I ended up catching a measly net 72 points from such a huge move south! I kicked myself when I reassessed and saw that I should have caught at least 300 points!
> 
> Still, this was my first venture in trading the SPI so I guess you live and learn. In hindsight, my biggest fear was seeing a small profit of 20-40 points reverse into a 20-40 point loss. Had I had the kahunas to ride through this period and not keep looking at my screen and just let the market do its thing, I would have been much better off!
> 
> ...




Think that bounce will be days not weeks.
Look at Support and Resistance.
See how traders react at these levels.
Its still playing out as expected.
I expect a shallow poorly supported rally to the upside befor dumping resumes. (So we still agree)


----------



## sammy84 (30 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A bit of bullish divergence around (CBA, WBC and IPL to name a few). Not scattered all over the charts though to get me really excited. Worth watching however.


----------



## Boggo (30 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> A bit of bullish divergence around (CBA, WBC and IPL to name a few). Not scattered all over the charts though to get me really excited. Worth watching however.




Interesting Sammy, below are two scan result pics, one of this time last week and one based on today's EOD data, both are the same database, ie. the ASX 300.

A minor change is being sensed...
.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (30 June 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> September SPI
> I havent tallied it up but with 1 and 2 contract trades around 300 ($8K)
> 
> 
> ...




That 300 points is what I "should" have caught hold of.
I'm glad we agree on some upside before dumping continues. Maybe it will take two weeks to slowly claw up the stairs then back down the elevator shaft it goes!

With your trading Tech, do you trade based on prices in the Sep SPI or do you trade based on the prices in the XJO/XAO? Eg. short SEP SPI if XJO breaks below 4300 OR short SEP SPI if SEP SPI breaks below 4300?

I know the charts for SEP SPI / XJO are similar in shape; but price levels vary.

For the MTPredictor uses out there; Looks like MTP is calling a low for the ASX300? Would be interested to know if/when MTP calls a high for the ASX300. I've often wondered how good MTP would be for trading contracts such as the SPI. Any MTP owners use it to trade the SPI?


----------



## brty (1 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I've been getting a few buy signals on individual stock and went long with a few things this morning. I'm expecting the low for XAO either today or tomorrow.
No idea how much of a move it will be, but most years July is pretty reasonable for Aussie stocks.

I don't expect 'the bottom' but certainly long trade opportunities here.

Now, where is Mr Murphy??

brty


----------



## wade (1 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My elliot wave analysis looks like wave C will end around 3800 to 3700, 3660 is 50% of the all time range so this could be a significant support level.
I'm new to elliot wave so correct me if i have labeled wrong or anything. After this wave C can we be safe to expect another bullish long term motive wave?


----------



## tech/a (2 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Going up.


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (2 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Going up.




You must be hanging from your feet


----------



## tech/a (2 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

SPI +30
+ is up

Mind you looks pretty weak.
As noted from earlier posts expect a retracement before 
dumping again.


----------



## wade (2 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

very weak


----------



## tech/a (2 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wet sail.
Still expect that positive retracement.


----------



## The_Snowman (3 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> For the MTPredictor uses out there; Looks like MTP is calling a low for the ASX300? Would be interested to know if/when MTP calls a high for the ASX300. I've often wondered how good MTP would be for trading contracts such as the SPI. Any MTP owners use it to trade the SPI?




See the S&P 500 thread under International Markets, I am dabbling in that using MTPredictor, due to the time zone I am in. Also, currently don't have data feed for SPI or I would post charts for that.
Not sure about it calling a bottom, but if I see it, I will post a chart for sure


----------



## The_Snowman (3 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> * I've often wondered how good MTP would be for trading contracts such as the SPI. Any MTP owners use it to trade the SPI?*




On second thoughts, have you read this blog? There is more information there than you will ever need, but if you need more, go to the home page. They often hold webinars so you can see it in action, ask questions. As an owner of MTP, I can say that the support is second to none!

*MTPredictor Blogspot*

*MTPredictor Homepage*


----------



## tech/a (4 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



The_Snowman said:


> On second thoughts, have you read this blog? There is more information there than you will ever need, but if you need more, go to the home page. They often hold webinars so you can see it in action, ask questions. As an owner of MTP, I can say that the support is second to none!
> 
> *MTPredictor Blogspot*
> 
> *MTPredictor Homepage*




Snowman

I use Aget
Some features of Get are similar to MT
I have used and just used Gets Count to take a longer term short position on the SPI
Now closed.
If (1) in my *RED* labelled count is taken out then short I'll be again for wave 3
I cant see why for general direction you wouldnt use MT for trading the SPI.

This is a *WEEKLY* chart of the XJO
Click to expand


----------



## RazzaDazzla (4 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I cant see why for general direction you wouldnt use MT for trading the SPI.




Tech, I'm not being a smart ass; but your above double negative is a little confusing. You're saying that in your opinion MT would be suitable for trading the SPI? If so, I wonder how it would measure up on a intraday period? Anyone able to comment?

Thanks for your insight into aget. I will definitely be checking it out for 'automating' Elliot wave identification. This along with research I subscribe too should be quite useful. 

Your pending short entry on the SPI if/when it breaks below the (1) looks quite a good Risk/Reward trade as apposed to attempting to pick a top of the suspected weak/choppy rally What stop would be wise to use for such a trade? A % move against the opened short? Or some technical level based on the (1) and the (2)?

Once again, thanks for your continued input and discussion.


----------



## tech/a (5 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Tech, I'm not being a smart ass; but your above double negative is a little confusing. You're saying that in your opinion MT would be suitable for trading the SPI? If so, I wonder how it would measure up on a intraday period? Anyone able to comment?
> 
> Thanks for your insight into aget. I will definitely be checking it out for 'automating' Elliot wave identification. This along with research I subscribe too should be quite useful.
> 
> ...




Yes As for general direction both Aget and M/T are looking at short.
This is what I mean re general direction.

I'm trading intraday after holding a short for quite a while.
My analysis is expecting a long rally (As in positive direction not length of time)  before falling off again---harder.
The setup is for another longer term short.
However if the Retracement (When it arrives) indicates obvious weakness then I could be back in sooner.
Until then intraday it is.

I dont use Elliott intraday.


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> This is a *WEEKLY* chart of the XJO
> Click to expand




I remember N. Radge also had a lower low forecast for 2011. Must be well back over a year ago now. Lost in the ASF archives somewhere but I think it was based on an Elliot Wave analysis.


----------



## tthurlow2287 (5 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

tech/a,

can I ask which broker you use? And also which data feed / charting software?

I've been trading the Emini and am getting sick of the 11.30pm-6am hours, so I'm looking to make a switch to the SPI. Just curious as to what setup you have.

Thanks


----------



## tech/a (5 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Broker IB
Software Tradeguider RT V4 (Volume spread analysis.)
Data E signal.
Been looking at FTSE 100 Future suits my timeline.
4-10pm.

AGET charts above are EOD
Just Data.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (6 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well by what I would classify as pure blind luck, (well maybe not completely blind) I managed to be Long Sep SPI @ 4207. 

As of writing I'm 50 points in the money. Looking at the EOD chart for XAO/XJO I'm thinking it looks like a turning point. 10 down days, then todays up bar, closing well off the lows of the day.

My stop loss is a bee's appendage below todays XJO low of 4182.

Based on a 50% retracement of the last down leg, my target is ~4404. I'm considering making use of a trailing stop of some description once prices hit the 38.2% level of 4351.

In my mind a 38.2% - 50% retracement followed by the then ugly downturn.

I hope my mind is stronger this time to hang in there and not see me forego a 150+ point move in my favour like I did previsouly because I was scared of losing my open profit.

I then hope I can reverse this position from Long to short once this retracement is complete. Picking this next turning point; other than targeting the 38.2% - 50% retracement will be the biggest challenge I believe.


----------



## tech/a (6 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Day traded long today just a single contract.


----------



## Edwood (6 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

key reversal day today, looking promising, but as always we'll have to wait for direction from the US...


----------



## RazzaDazzla (6 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nice work Tech. A lazy 36 point profit! Not bad for a day in front of the screen!

If you don't mind disclosing, what strategy do you use for day trading the SPI? I've been medaling with trading A-B-C patterns but with out too much intraday luck. 

My strategies have been;
-Waiting for an ABC pattern to complete and then entering long when the parabolic SaR is broken to the upside.

-Trading Swing highs/lows: So convert ABC, 12345 to XYZ then going long/short at the suspected bottom/top of the Y by using TTE.

I think I am trying to make patterns appear as apposed to waiting for 'clear' patterns to present and then trade.

Being 88 points in the money at the moment I think I'm better of trading on an EOD basis rather than staring at screen trying to make patterns appear. Either that, or I'm just lucky! 

Must admit it's reassuring to hear and read guru's calling a short term bounce.


----------



## tech/a (6 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Its on my desk, so I trade while I work.

Entry Support or resistance
Trade management Method VSA.
Exit VSA
I prefer long term myself and if you can get on the right side like you have then you should do well.

If its clear as crystal then I'll trade longer term hold over night and add contracts.
Right now its clear but not as crystal so I'm sleeping well.
If I was to hold---it would be long and with FTSE and DAX strong youll very likely be one happy puppy.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (6 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks for the insights Tech. VSA is yet another thing to investigate on my ever continuing to grow "to do" list.

As for my trade; well it is the most in the money I have ever been. I just hope I do the right thing. I'd kick myself if I either;
a)got nervous on a retracement and sold only to forgo more upside
b)hung on too long and lost the lot.


----------



## wade (6 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Thanks for the insights Tech. VSA is yet another thing to investigate on my ever continuing to grow "to do" list.
> 
> As for my trade; well it is the most in the money I have ever been. I just hope I do the right thing. I'd kick myself if I either;
> a)got nervous on a retracement and sold only to forgo more upside
> b)hung on too long and lost the lot.




you can always halve your position if your not sure where its going, or scale your position size down as you see fit


----------



## tech/a (7 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wade said:


> you can always halve your position if your not sure where its going, or scale your position size down as you see fit




Pretty hard if your trading a single contract.
But see your point.


----------



## tech/a (7 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Thanks for the insights Tech. VSA is yet another thing to investigate on my ever continuing to grow "to do" list.
> 
> As for my trade; well it is the most in the money I have ever been. I just hope I do the right thing. I'd kick myself if I either;
> a)got nervous on a retracement and sold only to forgo more upside
> b)hung on too long and lost the lot.




*Hint*

Think in R multiple (multiples of risk).

This trade and every trade to come will have a risk to reward attached to it.

If the initial risk was 10 ticks and your now +100 you have 10:1 R/R on this trade.
Keep adding all the R multiples of loss V the R multiples of win.

Aim is to exceed accumulated loss multiples with accumulated win multiples.

If you do this getting out early or late is of no consequence in the whole scheme of trading.(Your trading business).

Yesterday at close when I exited I was happy---still am---- I will have left $$s on the table BUT my Reward to Risk is still very high.

Today's aim with any trades is to maximise reward to risk----
Small losses as big as possible wins.
*Get used to being wrong---just don't stay wrong for long!*


----------



## RazzaDazzla (7 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks Tech. I understand 100% what you are saying re. think in terms of R.

On the basis of the XJO making a 38.2% correction of it's advance from 4182 to 4292; I am now long an additional contract.

Also, the SPI has made a 61.8% correction of its advance in the last 24 hrs. This is another reason for my additional long.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (7 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well looks like this correction from yesterdays rally is going to go a lot harder than I initially thought!

I'm still holding my position, (even the additional position ) and have a my stop loss for all positions just a tick below yesterdays low.

IMO, this is the hardest part. Seeing a potential 100+ point profit in over night trading turn into a small loss!

I've got my plan, and I'm going to stick to it. In hindsight now, only error I have made was adding that additional position.


----------



## professor_frink (7 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Well looks like this correction from yesterdays rally is going to go a lot harder than I initially thought!
> 
> I'm still holding my position, (even the additional position ) and have a my stop loss for all positions just a tick below yesterdays low.
> 
> ...




If you are going to fight the predominant trend, which is currently still down, maybe have a look at scaling out of trades.

Rallies against such a momentum driven decline are often very sharp, but often don't last long.

Personally in this situation, I'd have sold half and brought my stop into BE to protect against this very possibility. You can always add back to the position later if we start printing higher lows


----------



## wade (7 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Well looks like this correction from yesterdays rally is going to go a lot harder than I initially thought!
> 
> I'm still holding my position, (even the additional position ) and have a my stop loss for all positions just a tick below yesterdays low.
> 
> ...




If your not an experienced trader (im not one of them) i think you shouldnt trade against the trend untill you become more comfortable, trading corrections seem to be less predictable and more difficult. If you make a mistake in your timing you could be in big trouble fast. That being said its good you are sticking to your plan, today did trade higher then yesterday i still expect the market to get up to the 38.2% retracement. if you get stopped out atleast you have learned not to get greedy and add to your position too soon. 

When adding to your position you should re evaluate how much you stand to lose if it goes against you, you could be adding to a position significantly further away from your stop loss. I have made the same mistakes you should always plan for the worst and keep an objective view point. In my experience i would get excited and try to add to a winning position without logical reason, especially after a few losing trades beforehand, now i try to bury any subjective views and detach myself from the dollar amount i 'could' make.


----------



## tech/a (7 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Went short 4260 After top tested and holding O/N.

Just a dabble one contract.

*Prof* makes some good points.
Whats your plan if your willing to divulge?

Mine is simple and I could be wrong---predominant trend is down.

CLICK TO EXPAND


----------



## wade (7 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

tech do you only use VSA intraday or on longer time frames?


----------



## brty (7 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech,

An interesting take and graphic representation, however why have you left out the overnight market?? The picture looks a little different with it in.

I'm currently long from the end of last week on a few stocks that are in a similar pattern. For my money the recent fast rises, on the hourly, compared to the slower falls mean that it is still likely to go higher in the short term.

brty


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wade said:


> I have made the same mistakes you should always plan for the worst and keep an objective view point. In my experience i would get excited and try to add to a winning position without logical reason, especially after a few losing trades beforehand, now i try to bury any subjective views and detach myself from the dollar amount i 'could' make.



And that is the nature of failed discretionary trading. Chopping and changing, riding on skills & experience still lacking, emotional shunts. I don't think I'm alone in knowing that money goes hand in hand with emotion. Exhilaration to despair and all the shades in between.


----------



## tech/a (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes well done Razz.
My longterm analysis has trumped my short term.


On to the next trade.


----------



## tech/a (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wade said:


> tech do you only use VSA intraday or on longer time frames?




Both

*W* Ive not found it necessary.


----------



## GumbyLearner (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Both
> 
> *W* Ive not found it necessary.




Why? I have been a member of this site for over 4 years and have found your contributions completely and utterly useless? Maybe I need more capital.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Yes well done Razz.
> My longterm analysis has trumped my short term.
> 
> 
> On to the next trade.




Thanks Tech, though I wouldn't say it was skill that got me over the line; I am only very new to this game!

I am proud in my ability to not get scared and sell when things started looking tough.

I realise the recent rallies world wide have been on light volume which I believe is in agreance with this being a bear rally rather than a new bull.

I'll keep my eyes on the screen today and start moving my stop losses up.


----------



## professor_frink (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Went short 4260 After top tested and holding O/N.
> 
> Just a dabble one contract.
> 
> ...




Was that a question directed at me tech? I can't quite tell with the way you laid out your post


----------



## tech/a (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



GumbyLearner said:


> Why? I have been a member of this site for over 4 years and have found your contributions completely and utterly useless? Maybe I need more capital.




(1) Why?
Because when trading longer term I havent required it.I'll certainly have a look at continuous contract data and see if it is helpful.

(2) Not everyone "get's it".
Rather than capital perhaps you need more education.



> I'll keep my eyes on the screen today and start moving my stop losses up




Its not a happy rally resisting at 4338



> Was that a question directed at me tech? I can't quite tell with the way you laid out your post




No Razz.


----------



## nomore4s (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Its not a happy rally resisting at 4338




Hardly surprising it's hitting resistance considering the market is up about 70/80 points, you could also say 4310 seems to be providing support.

I'd be more interested in seeing how the day closes both here and in Asia before I make any sort of commitment either way.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

SPI is definitely scared of breaking 4340.


----------



## nunthewiser (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Went short 4260 After top tested and holding O/N.
> 
> Just a dabble one contract.





What happened with this? still open? or did you find a dip to close into today?


----------



## tech/a (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> What happened with this? still open? or did you find a dip to close into today?




Copped it sweet. (4321)


----------



## nunthewiser (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Copped it sweet. (4321)




fair enough.


goes with the job.


----------



## iownasx (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

tech, still think it will crash to sub-4000?


----------



## tech/a (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



iownasx said:


> tech, still think it will crash to sub-4000?




Yes.
Not a lot has altered fundamentally infact its getting worse.
This retracement is as expected albeit late!!
Will be interesting to see the depth of it.
50% retracement is normal.
32.8% is scary (Very weak)
61.8% is unlikely but if reached or exceeded indicates a period of boring consolidation and uncertainty---directionless.

Very quick low volume Updays like we saw in the US last night dont last long and are usually balanced next open or within 2 days.
So I'm looking for a reversal to short sooner than later.

By which time Razz will be retired.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Maybe not as scared of breaking above 4340 as I thought 

Sold half my position at 4351 to lock in some profits. Letting remaining position ride with a stop just below 4335.

This has been a huge learning experience for me and I am very grateful for the words of wisdom and posts that made me question and consider my own strategy, emotions and thoughts.

Looking forward to riding the trend down when it resumes 

EDIT: Sorry, just saw previous replies. I thought I posted this earlier but it didn't post.
I'm looking forward to the retirement Tech, but I don't think it will be of this move, or the next one, or the one after that. Maybe a few thousand more.

So the standard 32.8%-61.8% retracement is on the cards. What's the stand out signs that this move has completed? Just keep an eye on prices in this vicinity?


----------



## tech/a (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Maybe not as scared of breaking above 4340 as I thought
> 
> Sold half my position at 4351 to lock in some profits. Letting remaining position ride with a stop just below 4335.
> 
> ...




Suffering sukatash---I'm green with envy!!
Well done punk!


----------



## professor_frink (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Looking forward to riding the trend down when it resumes




That sounds rather definite. What makes you say that?


----------



## RazzaDazzla (8 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech, nothing to be jealous about; I've been in awe of some of the things I've seen of yours in the past. Though I will take your envy as a compliment 

Frink; My thoughts are as per Tech's analysis. A weak corrective move up followed by continued downside circa 4,000.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Before bed last night I looked at the charts. I noticed 4390 was tagged (~50% retracement) and decided to move my stop up to 4347 as I believed (wrongly) that ~4355 should provide some level of support.

All positions closed. A little annoyed at my self for just being stopped out and then the SPI boucning back to ~4375; but then had I not moved my stop up and the SPI dropped over night I would have been equally annoyed.

All positions closed and patiently awaiting signs of weakness to then go short.


----------



## satanoperca (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Where is the volume?


----------



## professor_frink (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> T
> 
> Frink; My thoughts are as per Tech's analysis. A weak corrective move up followed by continued downside circa 4,000.




ok then no probs. Congrats on the long trade too


----------



## skc (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Before bed last night I looked at the charts. I noticed 4390 was tagged (~50% retracement) and decided to move my stop up to 4347 as I believed (wrongly) that ~4355 should provide some level of support.
> 
> All positions closed. A little annoyed at my self for just being stopped out and then the SPI boucning back to ~4375; but then had I not moved my stop up and the SPI dropped over night I would have been equally annoyed.
> 
> All positions closed and patiently awaiting signs of weakness to then go short.




I think that's a great trade. What percent of the move did you get? Anything like 50-60% would be a fairly decent trade imo. If you get the absolute highs and lows you are pretty lucky, but not necessarily prudent.

Where would you put the short entry? Below 4310 would be where I am looking...


----------



## RazzaDazzla (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> I think that's a great trade. What percent of the move did you get? Anything like 50-60% would be a fairly decent trade imo. If you get the absolute highs and lows you are pretty lucky, but not necessarily prudent.
> 
> Where would you put the short entry? Below 4310 would be where I am looking...




Thanks for the kudos skc;

My initial trade long was at 4207. My final exit was in the early hours this morning when my stop of 4347 was hit.

I added and removed additional contracts on the way up and down, but that was the guts of the move that I was fortunate enough to capture. Trust me though, it wasn't with out fear and greed lurking over my left and right shoulder!

I'm not so sure on where to go short. As Tech and other have said; expect a 38.2% to 61.8% retracement. XJO is just shy of 50% and SEP SPI is even closer to 50%. 

So maybe the last 4 days is the short, sharp uppercut ABC and the market will start turning lower from here. supporting this is that if it is an ABC, A ~ C in price movement.

OR 

This up thrust is a 5 wave move and the market is now forming a running flat wave 4; since wave 2 was sharp. 

Looking at the SPI 30 min chart;

If 4391 is broken to the upside; I might throw a cheeky long on with a very short stop in an attempt to catch the last upthrust of the wave 5.

If 4332 is broken to the downside I would think about an equally cheeky short with tight stop..

My opinion is that once 4163 is broken to the downside we will then be on a slippery slope. I would hope to be short prior to this and then add to a position once/if this level is breached.


----------



## professor_frink (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Must say that I feel like the odd one out staying net long from here:dunno:

Really don't see any reason why we won't see close to 4500 on the XAO in the next week or so, though am expecting some mild weakness tonight and monday in the US


----------



## nunthewiser (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Must say that I feel like the odd one out staying net long from here:dunno:




we can join hands professor 

i still have a couple of long holds open from recent entrys. 1 insurance, 3resources, 1 bank......... no reason to let them go as yet.


----------



## professor_frink (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> we can join hands professor
> 
> i still have a couple of long holds open from recent entrys. 1 insurance, 3resources, 1 bank......... no reason to let them go as yet.




I feel better already nun


----------



## nunthewiser (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> I feel better already nun




LOL i dunno about that m8.. im usually an excellent opposite indicator


----------



## nomore4s (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Must say that I feel like the odd one out staying net long from here:dunno:
> 
> Really don't see any reason why we won't see close to 4500 on the XAO in the next week or so, though am expecting some mild weakness tonight and monday in the US




I also agree with you Prof, without doing a proper analysis there appears to be quite a bit of strength behind this move and I currently don't think the low from the 21st of May will be breached in the near term but in saying that I also don't think we are going to zoom to new highs either. And I'm also expecting some mild weakness over the next few days.

Again without doing a proper analysis I think we won't see new lows or a serious attempt to push through 4200 until around Sept/Oct, but the market will do what the market wants.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Very nice trading ladies and gents.
It has been very interesting following this thread over the last ten days.

gg


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> I'm not so sure on where to go short. As Tech and other have said; expect a *38.2% to 61.8% retracement.* XJO is just shy of 50% and SEP SPI is even closer to 50%.




Hello, I'm sure you know but when looking at a retracement of the prevailing trend from the low (where you have the 100% at 4163 points on the chart) then the Fibonacci scale should be the other way around. That is the 0% at the low and the 100% at the high.  Though the divisions are equal so it is just a flip of numbers in the mind.


----------



## tech/a (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well look at that and on very low volume too boot.


----------



## jonojpsg (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Well look at that and on very low volume too boot.




Does that mean it's likely to turn on the 50% and follow your last line down?  Forgive me for my ignorance


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Well look at that and on very low volume too boot.




tech, what are the red, green and blue centipedes on that chart?

congrats by the way, looks like you're well and truly into guru status around here, let me know when the mugs are out


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Well look at that and on very low volume too boot.




Impressive, following on from other posts of yours.

gg


----------



## nunthewiser (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> congrats by the way, looks like you're well and truly into guru status around here, let me know when the mugs are out





lol ya reckon ?..

i can see Brty quietly grinning collecting the cash instead of accolades 

Good to see tech posting his stuff here tho.Good to see a mix up of opinions.


----------



## tech/a (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jonojpsg said:


> Does that mean it's likely to turn on the 50% and follow your last line down?  Forgive me for my ignorance




Its an area to watch from here to 4450 is where there could be a possible return to the bears.



> tech, what are the red, green and blue centipedes on that chart?
> 
> congrats by the way, looks like you're well and truly into guru status around here, let me know when the mugs are out




Its a Trend following Proprietary indicator from Tradeguider.
I have a suspicion its a moving average of parabolic SAR. In fact I'm sure it is as you can alter the periodicy---its currently 20.

Guru.
No I'm just being pro active and giving the pundits a duck to shoot. I think "Some" of us enjoy each others posts.
Analysis will be proven correct or in correct.
When its right you collect the cash and look guru.
When it fails you give back some cash and turn back to Duck!

If you bare all then your going to be fair game! Thats fine I dont mind the good the bad and the ugly---wether people admit it or not thats exactly how their trading goes as well as my own.



> Impressive, following on from other posts of yours.




Is that a Duck whistle I hear?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> lol ya reckon ?..
> 
> i can see Brty quietly grinning collecting the cash instead of accolades
> 
> Good to see tech posting his stuff here tho.Good to see a mix up of opinions.




Just going by others reactions in this thread 



tech/a said:


> Its an area to watch from here to 4450 is where there could be a possible return to the bears.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Sounds like TG  

Fair enough, I know you can trade well, the responses around here just amuse me thats all  As you were, good luck and good trading


----------



## nunthewiser (9 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My post may have come out wrong.

I respect and have a look at opinions/analysis provided by tech/a here , there are others i also watch for their posts on market related topics.

There is a lot here i dont even bother reading when it comes to market postings/discussions.

Its good to see how different traders are reading the market.

The agreement and suckjob posts bore me to tears.

its not techs fault he attracts many of these along the way .


----------



## nulla nulla (10 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The xao has bounced this week, following on from the International markets. However, it is hard to believe that we will see a big enough return of investor confidence in the market to lift the xao above 4650. 
With the ongoing problems emerging in Europe, the attempts by China to slow their pace of growth and the ever increasing debt balloon in the USA, it is realisticaly more likely that 4550 will be the upper level in a continuing downward channel.


----------



## brty (11 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nun,



> i can see Brty quietly grinning collecting the cash




You will have to change that to collected. I exited my positions on Friday afternoon. Probably a bit early after Fridays action in the US, but that is usual for me.

Some positions were not performing nearly as well as originally anticipated, and I exited flat, like OST, that looks terrible for a long. 

Other positions like OSH, much better, yet they seemed to be reaching short term resistance. (I missed STO  )

The XAO is nothing but a combination of all the stocks in it, when they separately give a good signal, it is often a turning point, as was the case last week. Where we are now the picture is different, the odds of sideways action, further rises or sudden falls are all as likely as each other, so for now I'm out, waiting for the next signal of high probability.

brty


----------



## tech/a (14 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I like to be out there.
Short FTSE 
The stop is at 5262
Entry 5243
This has relevence to XJO tommorow


----------



## nunthewiser (14 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

FWIW.

I alos am expecting a downturn from here but have not acted in a "short" position sense.

I have however exited my long ST positions as mentioned entered a few posts back.

I could be wrong and miss out on a few bucks.


----------



## tech/a (17 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Went short again from 4406.The signal was pretty clear on 14/7,15/7 and 16/7 (grouped together.)
Plus the Triple Top.




4449 on the SPI to boot.
Just the single contract.


----------



## professor_frink (17 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

tech, nun,

nice work gents

Tech, you still have the FTSE as well as the SPI short?


----------



## tech/a (17 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> tech, nun,
> 
> nice work gents
> 
> Tech, you still have the FTSE as well as the SPI short?




Closed the FTSE.
First time Id traded it not sure about the contract so closed it out for no other reason.
Made a few quid but ---


----------



## professor_frink (17 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Closed the FTSE.
> First time Id traded it not sure about the contract so closed it out for no other reason.
> Made a few quid but ---




Cheers tech.

Good luck with the short


----------



## RazzaDazzla (19 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So straight lower from here?

Or 

A bounce, back towards recent highs then down from there?

Arguments, comments, charts for and against either/neither of these?


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (21 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No clear direction atm


----------



## tech/a (21 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> No clear direction atm




I think its pretty clear longer term

Currently its still in a bearish down trend that hasnt changed and its certainly not showing that its near altering that.
We are seeing lower highs and lower lows.
So my analysis remain bearish until proven otherwise.

If your day trading then your----having fun.


----------



## ginar (21 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I think its pretty clear longer term
> 
> Currently its still in a bearish down trend that hasnt changed and its certainly not showing that its near altering that.
> We are seeing lower highs and lower lows.
> ...




About as clear as mud really ... double bottom daily late may / early july with a swing top that equalled consolidation highs of 13 may . testing the TLR from 15 april last few days with a week of whips so far . I can currently build a case for both biases longer term from here so its not that cut and dried in my mind . reference lows are 4th july with reference highs july 16 hod . whether this current upthrust is counter or not is not determined at this stage as the channel still holds ....  it certainly is a dynamic beast atm


----------



## explod (21 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> About as clear as mud really ... double bottom daily late may / early july with a swing top that equalled consolidation highs of 13 may . testing the TLR from 15 april last few days with a week of whips so far . I can currently build a case for both biases longer term from here so its not that cut and dried in my mind . reference lows are 4th july with reference highs july 16 hod . whether this current upthrust is counter or not is not determined at this stage as the channel still holds ....  it certainly is a dynamic beast atm




Good chart ginar.   We have lower highs that if not beached in the current move will see the market drop further.  6 month Dow shows the same thing and that in fact, the move is failing.   End of this week could be decider


----------



## ginar (21 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

bit closer and we live above the 5day 50 so far today with it providing support , i dont like to see price above this level after i get crossover , can indicate a weaker trend especially since we did challenge 5 day lows . the 5 day 50 is again trending up which generally doesnt bode well for trend change sticking . key levels marked on charts . still looks a coin toss


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (21 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The market will go where it wants to. Every time frame on the chart will look great in hindsight.


----------



## ginar (21 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> The market will go where it wants to. Every time frame on the chart will look great in hindsight.




comments like that are one of the reasons im reluctant to ever post on any australian forum . im not going to try and prove you wrong , im just going back into the cupboard and continue on with my trading in peace 

good luck to all


----------



## tech/a (21 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> The market will go where it wants to. Every time frame on the chart will look great in hindsight.




True.
But if you look back through the thread you'll see we have it pretty right most of the time.

If you really believe you cant skew price action in your favor to profit from aparent random price action---you---or anyone who truely believes in a totally random market--- must gamble--not trade.


----------



## Broadway (21 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> comments like that are one of the reasons im reluctant to ever post on any australian forum . im not going to try and prove you wrong , im just going back into the cupboard and continue on with my trading in peace
> 
> good luck to all




Have to agree, if you have nothing constructive to contribute then dont say anything. This thread is for analysis and all charts are welcomed. Pathetic comments from mindless douchebags are not.


----------



## jersey10 (21 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> comments like that are one of the reasons im reluctant to ever post on any australian forum . im not going to try and prove you wrong , im just going back into the cupboard and continue on with my trading in peace
> 
> good luck to all




What is the relevance of the word Australian in your above comment?


----------



## jonojpsg (21 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey ginar, just ignore BNECBD, I reckon your chart looks spot on and gives some key points to look for over the next two days that could net a nice move (down IMO).


----------



## iownasx (26 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

well these recent developments are unexpected...


----------



## professor_frink (26 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



iownasx said:


> well these recent developments are unexpected...




Which developments are you referring to, and how does these impact the XAO?


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (26 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jersey10 said:


> What is the relevance of the word Australian in your above comment?




Jersey10 there is no relevance. 

I feel its amateur hour currently on this forum.


----------



## tech/a (26 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> Jersey10 there is no relevance.
> 
> I feel its amateur hour currently on this forum.




There is now a possibility that there will be an alternate wave count toward 4600.

However like all analysis to be confirmed.
For those un interested in comments from the amateur's here just tick ignore poster.

BNECBD_DayTrader---Im still happy to read your posts though.


----------



## nomore4s (26 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> I also agree with you Prof, without doing a proper analysis there appears to be quite a bit of strength behind this move and I currently don't think the low from the 21st of May will be breached in the near term but in saying that I also don't think we are going to zoom to new highs either. And I'm also expecting some mild weakness over the next few days.
> 
> Again without doing a proper analysis I think we won't see new lows or a serious attempt to push through 4200 until around Sept/Oct, but the market will do what the market wants.




This analysis still stands and I think we will just travel sideways for a while probably between 4200-4700.


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (26 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Likewise tech /a


----------



## ginar (27 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



iownasx said:


> well these recent developments are unexpected...




Unexpected for some , no surprise to me . 



> bit closer and we live above the 5day 50 so far today with it providing support , i dont like to see price above this level after i get crossover , can indicate a weaker trend especially since we did challenge 5 day lows . the 5 day 50 is again trending up which generally doesnt bode well for trend change sticking . key levels marked on charts . still looks a coin toss




trend change didnt stick and price action told the story , the 5day50 needs to become resistance once a xover occurs . the channel held , we didnt see new 5 day lows and since weve gone onto new 5 day highs , the headfake sucked in a few no doubt


----------



## professor_frink (27 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What do you mean by "50 day50" ginar?


----------



## ginar (27 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

only thing of note on daily is a break of TLR , june highs key forward from here with the trendline support from 6july lows the key level to look at on downside .... structure tells the story  ... reading structure is the key


----------



## ginar (27 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> What do you mean by "50 day50" ginar?




5day50 is low / high / close divided by 3 over a 5day period . i calculate it on  a 2 hour adjusted to reflect 5 days , its a little more dynamic that way . its all variations on some of deelites work


----------



## professor_frink (27 July 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> 5day50 is low / high / close divided by 3 over a 5day period . i calculate it on  a 2 hour adjusted to reflect 5 days , its a little more dynamic that way . its all variations on some of deelites work




ok gotcha.

Thanks for that


----------



## ginar (2 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

looking impulsive with previous resist becoming support . another headfake to excite bears with channel test but no close below on 2 hour , almost a xover with 5day lows proving to be support , back above the 5day50 again today with 5 day highs key resistance and this mornings gap key dside key level in the short term .


----------



## brty (5 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This thread has gone quiet with the market drifting up. I notice the reduced volume on many issues that are at resistance. If I was playing the short side of the market I would be getting set at these levels, however I don't, so I will be in cash for the next little while. There is a chance that this is the top for a month or 2.

Tomorrows test of ~4650 on the XAO will tell the story, same as the test of resistance for both the SPX and FTSE.

brty


----------



## professor_frink (6 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> This thread has gone quiet with the market drifting up. I notice the reduced volume on many issues that are at resistance. If I was playing the short side of the market I would be getting set at these levels, however I don't, so I will be in cash for the next little while. There is a chance that this is the top for a month or 2.
> 
> Tomorrows test of ~4650 on the XAO will tell the story, same as the test of resistance for both the SPX and FTSE.
> 
> brty




Nice call brty


----------



## brty (6 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's a bit early to declare it a "nice call" prof.

 Let's just wait a week or so, of course by then I could have changed my mind depending on the market action.

brty


----------



## professor_frink (6 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



brty said:


> It's a bit early to declare it a "nice call" prof.
> 
> Let's just wait a week or so, of course by then I could have changed my mind depending on the market action.
> 
> brty




Sorry brty, I sometimes forget that not everyone else is a swing trader


----------



## ginar (6 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Crossroads here and with NFP in US tonight its no real surprise . Daily looks tired up against resistance zone . Channel still holds , upper line hasnt been in play for weeks . Shaky atm with tonights results the obvious catalyst which ever way it goes .


----------



## ginar (6 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Closer up on 2hr we still see impulsive type move with swing highs becoming support swing lows . Havent tested 5 day highs this week which gives a little weight to some bearish bias going forwards , this weeks lows key with last weeks high key upside . channel support another obvious level to watch . Close under that at on 2hr will be an alarm for me . Not hard to see a test of 5day lows in the short term  .    looking to be a pivotal time junction  .


----------



## RazzaDazzla (10 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Interesting day on the XJO.

I would have been short if it closed below 4539. Managed to close just above.


----------



## DocK (10 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Interesting day on the XJO.
> 
> I would have been short if it closed below 4539. Managed to close just above.




Why 4539 precisely RazzaDazzla?


----------



## RazzaDazzla (10 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Traders Trick Entry. Yesterdays bar was a new high, so a break of it's low is a low risk entry. Just my


----------



## DocK (10 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks for reply, busy reading now


----------



## skyQuake (10 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Traders Trick Entry. Yesterdays bar was a new high, so a break of it's low is a low risk entry. Just my




Would have been ok for yesterday, but what about the staggered open in general for the XJO?


----------



## RazzaDazzla (10 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Would have been ok for yesterday, but what about the staggered open in general for the XJO?




I would look to do it on close. Or if there was a significant intraday drop. To confirm; I am not concerned with the previous days bar. I am concerned with the most recent high and the subsequent low of that high bar.

That make sense?


----------



## ginar (11 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

After a little struggle for couple days it seems weve got the trendline break done and have put a lower swing low under 5day lows , resistance on futures was at 5day50 last night . im calling it an end to the trend as weve got the bend . 5day50 trending down so its ticking the boxes .... will do a chart later when im on other machine


----------



## ginar (12 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> After a little struggle for couple days it seems weve got the trendline break done and have put a lower swing low under 5day lows , resistance on futures was at 5day50 last night . im calling it an end to the trend as weve got the bend . 5day50 trending down so its ticking the boxes .... will do a chart later when im on other machine




no commentary required for this really


----------



## Emjai (12 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey everyone,

Just look at the XJO, is looks really weak  where we are right now. 

We found a nice support at the 4200 level which alos formed a double bottom and then we had a nice run up but we have struggled on a number time to break through a 4600 level.

When I was looking at the weekly chart (below) you can see that we have two major resistance lines.

Because we failed to break above these lines ..I think we are in for a major down turn coming in the next 12 months or so.

Anyway.. this is what i see happening in the charts.

Hope this helps.


----------



## Sean K (12 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Emjai said:


> Because we failed to break above these lines ..I think we are in for a major down turn coming in the next 12 months or so.



I'm not sure about 12 months, might be 36 months. Might be 3. 

Hard to call a time line on any non breakage of that resistance you've rightly pointed out really. 

5000 on the way up is bigger fence to hurdle imo.


----------



## Stops (12 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'm not sure about 12 months, might be 36 months. Might be 3.
> 
> Hard to call a time line on any non breakage of that resistance you've rightly pointed out really.
> 
> 5000 on the way up is bigger fence to hurdle imo.




Could go sideways for a long time !!!


----------



## Emjai (12 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes, you are right.

The 5000 level was a really strong resistance we all can see that.

When we are looking to trade the market we only can use what we have right now..so that's why I'm pointing out where we are right now.

I also agree with you.. we never now how long it will take to get to a price. 

Thanks for interacting.. its good to toss up ideas and other peoples opinions.


----------



## ginar (12 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'm not sure about 12 months, might be 36 months. Might be 3.
> 
> Hard to call a time line on any non breakage of that resistance you've rightly pointed out really.
> 
> 5000 on the way up is bigger fence to hurdle imo.






I try and have no bias too far into the future as im more interested in profits rather than prophets . I trade the price action in front of me via 2 hourly charts , i use my anchor chart (daily) for reference levels and i generally never look beyond those reference points until they are broken . I am a trader not an analyst although i obviously use analysis to trade . I really have little interest in where the market will be in 6 months , more like 6 days , possibly only 6 hours and maximum about 6 weeks . Too much can occur to scuttle any analysis any further out . Its all about making money , im not interested in being proficient at guru analysis . 


........... May profits be yours


----------



## Emjai (12 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I totally agree with you.

I'm a day trader of the emini and 1-5 day trader in the Aussie market.

you are right.

Its all about making money.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (22 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hung parliament likely outcome. XAO/XJO going to be a bit spooked with no clear direction for a result?


----------



## Miro (23 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

AUD gapped down 60 pips.


----------



## kash (25 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We are coming to a great opportunity soon. We have a resistant point at 4200. This means a great chance to buy. Even though we are still feeling the effect of GFC, We have not have massive worldwide news on companies collapsing. Based on this i cannot see 3100 being reached. Unless we have any savage new we should been seeing a bottom, then a start back to 5000 again by years end. All imho with fingers crossed.


----------



## Sean K (26 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kash said:


> We are coming to a great opportunity soon. We have a resistant point at 4200. This means a great chance to buy. Even though we are still feeling the effect of GFC, We have not have massive worldwide news on companies collapsing. Based on this i cannot see 3100 being reached. Unless we have any savage new we should been seeing a bottom, then a start back to 5000 again by years end. All imho with fingers crossed.



I think 4200 ish is support kash. Might be a buying op if you really think that will hold, but if it doesn't then we're in trouble. Next longer term support 4000..


----------



## kash (26 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Been out of the market for a while. Have cash sitting there waiting. This will be the third attempt at 4200. if it holds then it will go back to 5000. Some nice shares to invest in. If not then i don't think 4000 will stop it. So i will watch. But positive rise today even with bad news in us. Probably will pick some up soon.


----------



## oztrades (26 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kennas. notwithstanding the current climate but respectfully though an intimate disclosure on a 2 year chart on where the xao is heading? Wouldnt say a 6 month or YTD chart be more appropriate?


----------



## ginar (27 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

AB = CD , reference levels marked , channel marked , july lows marked , great geometry , 5day50 providing stout resistance , no bend at the end as yet


----------



## oztrades (27 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Great chart... thankyou very much ginar... puts things into perspective. Just wish this forum would let us vote on your post. Big upward tick from me. LOL

Again thanks


----------



## iownasx (29 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

haven't seen Tech/a on this thread for a while


----------



## Boggo (29 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Another view perhaps.
The short setup (TS3) on 21/06 reached first predicted target.
If the setup (TS3) on 09/08 does the same then we are looking at around 4250 as a minimum.

Just my  input.

(click to enlarge)


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



iownasx said:


> haven't seen Tech/a on this thread for a while




Nothing much to report.

Ah
Boggo we crossed.
I concur.


----------



## Sean K (31 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some squiggles on a non semilog.

Between 4000-4250 ish looks important to the downside.

4600 on the way up. 

5000 looks more important of course.


----------



## ginar (31 August 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

if we repeat ranges already done this 5th wave should take us < 4200 . reference levels marked , self explanatory ...


----------



## Boggo (2 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The goal posts have moved, this is not going to be a straight forward plot and wait...
.


----------



## Boggo (4 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO is approaching an area of potential resistance ?

(click to expand)


----------



## nomore4s (4 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> I also agree with you Prof, without doing a proper analysis there appears to be quite a bit of strength behind this move and I currently don't think the low from the 21st of May will be breached in the near term but in saying that I also don't think we are going to zoom to new highs either. And I'm also expecting some mild weakness over the next few days.
> 
> Again without doing a proper analysis I think we won't see new lows or a serious attempt to push through 4200 until around Sept/Oct, but the market will do what the market wants.




Not a bad guess, considering I didn't really put much effort into it.

It will be interesting to see what happens now as we approach this next resistance zone. 
A couple of things to note on the chart.
Green line indicates the lower highs but the green line the Above 50% indicator actually shows higher highs - meaning while the market is struggling to break through that area of resistance more and more stocks are moving to "bullish" positions - hence we could see a "breakout" of sorts.

But I'm still favouring more sideways action so I think we will head back towards 4400 before any sort of breakout but an immediate push towards 5000 isn't out of the question - I just don't know if the market will have enough oomph to get through this area yet. I think we will see some weakness next week and just how the market reacts to that weakness will be telling. If some serious weakness does come in that attempt at 4200 in Sept/Oct is still a chance but is probably my least favoured scenario atm.


----------



## Sean K (5 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

4600 to be tested here. Looks pivotal to me. If we break through, then 4500-600 _should _be support. Changes the game just a little I reckon. Makes 4200 look more bottominsh in this phase. But, if 4600 fails, even greater resistance and sideways to down bias.


----------



## tech/a (6 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> 4600 to be tested here. Looks pivotal to me. If we break through, then 4500-600 _should _be support. Changes the game just a little I reckon. Makes 4200 look more bottominsh in this phase. But, if 4600 fails, *even greater resistance *and sideways to down bias.




I look at testing and failure or success of resistance/support "perhaps" a little differently.

If this resistance at 4600 ish is tested more often I see it as becoming weaker rather than (as you point out) stronger. Those who are caught around here long once they have unloaded will see testing pass right through and as you correctly state should become support going forward.
This mornings dumping (Got me out of jail!!) at these levels was swift but has since pulled up.
A quick retest could well see a break through.
Your right an important level.


----------



## Sean K (6 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I look at testing and failure or success of resistance/support "perhaps" a little differently.
> 
> If this resistance at 4600 ish is tested more often I see it as becoming weaker rather than (as you point out) stronger.



Actually, I agree with you on that tech. Not sure if there's any stats on that, just intuitive perhaps.

4600 is around the 200d ma also which might be an additional factor.


----------



## sammy84 (7 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ASX Small Ords is off and running. September is seasonally not the best time, however I do like when the smaller end of the market is leading the way.


----------



## Joules MM1 (8 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> ASX Small Ords is off and running. September is seasonally not the best time, however I do like when the smaller end of the market is leading the way.




that pic says a thousand words.......good post, sammy


----------



## Joules MM1 (8 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

of course, prices ascending, at this stage of the rebound need to expand on breadth, otherwise the narrow nature would show a focus on stocks that are seen as earners in any weather especially as we near the weekly highs.........


----------



## Whiskers (10 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looking a bit toppy to me.

Whether it's a Triangle wave 'Ã­' or a Diagonal Triangle wave 'B', it looks to me like some corrective time coming up.


----------



## Ardyne (10 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I hope its a high base so it can break out north and head towards 5000


----------



## sammy84 (13 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Small end of town still leading the way. Shows for a healthy rally. AUD is also looking to break through that 94c mark .Looks like the risk trade is back for *the time being*.


----------



## Synergy (13 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO, XJO, no matter which way you look at it we've got a higher high today, and a higher low on the way up to go with it. A lot of previous analysis should have been disproved today.


----------



## Boggo (14 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

New areas of potential resistance on the XJO.

(click to expand)


----------



## Edwood (15 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

potential ending diagonal on ASX200, with macd divergence on the 4hr.  will be interesting to see if this gold spike can pull Aussie higher today.  suspect things'll be held up for opex on Friday before letting go


----------



## tech/a (16 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Boggo's chart depicts current state of play.
As pointed out by many other posters the threat of a return to a bear move has been currently averted.


----------



## Edwood (16 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Boggo's chart depicts current state of play.
> As pointed out by many other posters the threat of a return to a bear move has been currently averted.




yer appears to be that way tech.  ED still in play and this is still looking like an opex pump (US sitting around max pain), next week will likely see some selling


----------



## Sunder (17 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Pretty much every analyst yesterday said it was just profit-taking, and not an end of a short sharp rally. Edwood here mentioned that it was pressure from options expiry. (I assume that's what Opex means?)

Can anyone explain to me:

1. Why options expiry forces share prices down

2. How analysts knew it was only profit taking, and not a change in sentiment?


----------



## Miro (17 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Pretty much every analyst yesterday said it was just profit-taking, and not an end of a short sharp rally. Edwood here mentioned that it was pressure from options expiry. (I assume that's what Opex means?)
> 
> Can anyone explain to me:
> 
> ...



1. Why options expiry forces share prices down
- this is not true, t just makes the market more volatile

2. How analysts knew it was only profit taking, and not a change in sentiment?
- don't believe in anything they say


----------



## Edwood (17 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Sunder said:


> Pretty much every analyst yesterday said it was just profit-taking, and not an end of a short sharp rally. Edwood here mentioned that it was pressure from options expiry. (I assume that's what Opex means?)
> 
> Can anyone explain to me:
> 
> ...




yes opex = options expiry.  The options writers want as many as possible to expire worthless.  In effect it was profit taking.  Next week we will likely see same in the US, but that's not a given


----------



## Whiskers (24 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> But I'm still favouring more sideways action so I think we will head back towards 4400 before any sort of breakout but an immediate push towards 5000 isn't out of the question - I just don't know if the market will have enough oomph to get through this area yet. I think we will see some weakness next week and just how the market reacts to that weakness will be telling.* If some serious weakness does come in that attempt at 4200 in Sept/Oct is still a chance but is probably my least favoured scenario atm*.






kennas said:


> 4600 to be tested here. Looks pivotal to me. If we break through, then 4500-600 _should _be support. Changes the game just a little I reckon.* Makes 4200 look more bottominsh in this phase*. But, if 4600 fails, even greater resistance and sideways to down bias.




I agree. I can't see it breaking 4200 on this leg down.



Whiskers said:


> Looking a bit toppy to me.
> 
> Whether it's a Triangle wave 'Ã­' or a Diagonal Triangle wave 'B', it looks to me like some corrective time coming up.





I'm going with a "i" top of a continuing uptrend rather than "B" of a more significant decine atm. 



Edwood said:


> potential ending diagonal on ASX200, with macd divergence on the 4hr.  will be interesting to see if this gold spike can pull Aussie higher today.  suspect things'll be held up for opex on Friday before letting go




Spot on. Certainly let go now I think. I'm thinking 4570 ish for the 'a' leg down.


----------



## wintermute (25 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi All, just thought I'd pop my head in... seems that whenever I get some renewed interest in the market of late (last time was in Jan) I pull out my old long term XAO chart and decide I should have not bothered  

I posted back in Jan (not sure if here but definitely elsewhere) that I felt the bottom was going to likely be 3700 sometime in Dec this year.... well revisiting the chart I based that on certainly doesn't seem to be much different (except maybe I should have pushed that to Jan or Feb next year).. I think 4200 is optomistic  

Of course I'm not basing this on anything other than a suspicion that we may be seeing a similar pattern to what ensued after the 87 crash...  It is based purely on speculation that the market may go the same way, not on any fundamental analysis of economics or anything else.... just my interpretation of a few strategically placed lines on a chart. 

Tony.


----------



## Logique (26 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well I think the Bears have cause to be nervous. 

I think there is a good case on TA for saying that the cyclical bottom was in during 2009 at ~3400, and a recovery bottom earlier this year at ~4300.

And that 4900 by Christmas is entirely possible, if not likely. So lets see if we can get through the dreaded month of October.

XAO chart under is all data quarterly.


----------



## jonojpsg (26 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



wintermute said:


> Hi All, just thought I'd pop my head in... seems that whenever I get some renewed interest in the market of late (last time was in Jan) I pull out my old long term XAO chart and decide I should have not bothered
> 
> I posted back in Jan (not sure if here but definitely elsewhere) that I felt the bottom was going to likely be 3700 sometime in Dec this year.... well revisiting the chart I based that on certainly doesn't seem to be much different (except maybe I should have pushed that to Jan or Feb next year).. I think 4200 is optomistic
> 
> ...




Don't mind that analysis based in the chart, certainly the channel gives us some onwards and upwards indication though (albeit within a 2000 point range!).  One point to note on a fundamental level when comparing post-87 with post-08 is the fact that Oz went into recession in 1990 which obviously shows in the dip back down to the bottom of the channel in 1991.  Whether we dip again from now (or perhaps from around 5000 from the looks of the chart) depends IMO on whether the resources boom continues - which is to a large extent dependent on what happens in China - seems like this is going to be the defining factor in our fortunes over the coming years.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (26 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Well I think the Bears have cause to be nervous.
> 
> I think there is a good case on TA for saying that the cyclical bottom was in during 2009 at ~3400, and a recovery bottom earlier this year at ~4300.
> 
> ...




Logique mate,

Sometimes the closer you look, the harder it becomes. Bears are never nervous in late September.

I'm a great believer in Elliott Wave theory.

Have a look at the price/time in the first panel of your chart from a distance.

83-88 Wave 1
88      Wave 2
88-01 Wave 3
01-03 Wave 4
03-09 Wave 5

We are now in an ABC.

Lets C where C leaves us in the shakeout to come.

gg


----------



## sammy84 (26 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> ]
> 
> And that 4900 by Christmas is entirely possible, if not likely. So lets see if we can get through the *dreaded month of October*.
> 
> XAO chart under is all data quarterly.




October shouldn't be dread. Seasonality shows that we are in for a few good months. Was promising that we got through September unscathed. 

Good monthly stats here:

http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-sp500-average-monthly-change


----------



## wintermute (27 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jonojpsg said:


> Don't mind that analysis based in the chart, certainly the channel gives us some onwards and upwards indication though (albeit within a 2000 point range!).  One point to note on a fundamental level when comparing post-87 with post-08 is the fact that Oz went into recession in 1990 which obviously shows in the dip back down to the bottom of the channel in 1991.  Whether we dip again from now (or perhaps from around 5000 from the looks of the chart) depends IMO on whether the resources boom continues - which is to a large extent dependent on what happens in China - seems like this is going to be the defining factor in our fortunes over the coming years.




Hi Jonojpsg, certainly after a bit of a look at the shorter term daily and weekly charts there doesn't look like there is any indication that my dire prediction of 3700 in Dec seems likely (this was arrrived at by simply cloning the line from the 87 crash, so far it looks to have a reasonable correlation).  

But I do think that another bounce off 5000 followed by a revisit of the lower line in the trend channel is likely the question is when? Looking at the weekly I think it is too early to say that we are on the way back to 5000, and even the daily I'm a bit ambilvalent about,  neither look particularly good or bad to me. 

Probably I'll hold on to everything as usual and it will crash, or I will decide to sell and it will set off on a full recovery, always seems to be the way with me  

Tony.


----------



## Synergy (27 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some lines...


Anyone think that upper line holds any real resistance?


----------



## Julia (27 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A comment from Colin Twiggs which caught my eye:



> Stocks rally as we approach the end of the third quarter, but fund managers may be supporting prices to window-dress their balance sheets. Expect a mid-October retracement (as in 2007) to test the new support level.


----------



## So_Cynical (27 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Synergy said:


> Some lines...
> 
> 
> Anyone think that upper line holds any real resistance?




I don't think its realistic to look down from the top..looking up from the bottom makes more sense to me.
~


----------



## kash (28 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Quote:
Probably I'll hold on to everything as usual and it will crash, or I will decide to sell and it will set off on a full recovery, always seems to be the way with me  

Just tell us which way you go so we can do the opposite.


----------



## Whiskers (28 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> October shouldn't be dread. Seasonality shows that we are in for a few good months. *Was promising that we got through September unscathed. *[
> 
> Good monthly stats here:
> 
> http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-sp500-average-monthly-change




 Not out of sept yet, Sammy. 



Julia said:


> A comment from Colin Twiggs which caught my eye:






kash said:


> Quote:
> Probably I'll hold on to everything as usual and it will crash, or I will decide to sell and it will set off on a full recovery, always seems to be the way with me
> 
> Just tell us which way you go so we can do the opposite.




My tip  ... a little wave 'c' to finish off Sept Qtr as all those fund managers panic to lock in some profits... bottom line value as opposed to just pushing up book value, while the mid and low caps are getting a bit of attention.


----------



## Logique (30 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> My tip  ... a little wave 'c' to finish off Sept Qtr as all those fund managers panic to lock in some profits...



We won't know for sure until next week, but yes I think there is something in that Whiskers. I'm a little anxious about some of my good performers this month. Making no comment on the medium term, which is unclear to me. 

My read on world markets is that there is vulnerability to a near term correction.


----------



## sammy84 (30 September 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Might be setting myself up for a fall here but I am still relatively bullish even in light of the price action the past few days.

There was some type A bearish divergence on the XAO a few days ago that has given us a slight dip, nevertheless I am not yet worried.

AUD, Hang Seng, Russell 2000, XAO small ords and energy stocks are all bullish. The risk trade is on.


----------



## Boggo (2 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Follow up to my previous post...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=580702&postcount=8343

Note that the chart is the XJO.

Area of resistance had its effect, its now in a no mans land, does it retrace to sub 4500 first or does it reverse and break through 4700 and continue to just below 5000.

Stops adjusted, watch and wait, my 

(click to expand)


----------



## Sean K (5 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Holding above the old resistance zone spells high potential for the bottom to have been found and sideways to up movement from here. Bets off when 4500 goes.


----------



## explod (5 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Holding above the old resistance zone spells high potential for the bottom to have been found and sideways to up movement from here. Bets off when 4500 goes.




Sorry to spoil the party but it just follows the Dow.  Market in Australia does not think, we follow blindly.

The Dow for the same period as in your post Kennas.  I think the Dow is going to go down soon too.  Fundamantals are bad over there IMV.


----------



## Sean K (5 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> Sorry to spoil the party but it just follows the Dow.  Market in Australia does not think, we follow blindly.



A chart is a chart.


----------



## Joules MM1 (5 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



explod said:


> ...we follow blindly.
> ...




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=487242#post487242

at the top of that page someone has done the research for you....

as a side note you'll also see that the xjo has out perforned the spx on many ocassions (to the upside) and is in a different long-term bull market, has a propensity to higher inflationary pressures on its assets whereas the US is in a deflationary cycle.....

so, even on a long scale basis you can prove a following, you still have to trade the trend as it presents in the moment and with the xjo having a larger gain over and above the spx on year over year basis and most managers have to have a long-side exposure, where would place your bets?


----------



## explod (6 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Joules MM1 said:


> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=487242#post487242
> 
> at the top of that page someone has done the research for you....
> 
> ...




Today we followd the Dow as we do most other days.  You can rule up all the variables in the world. but we follow like the blind sheep.


----------



## sammy84 (8 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Getting a little nervous today. Didn't like the AUD sharp rejection off 99c. There is also type A bearish divergence on a few indicies. I'm tightening stops today. Still believe we are going to test 5000, but might be a breather in store.


----------



## Synergy (13 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Currently the DOW is up 5.7% for the year.

The XAO is down 3.3% 

DOW futures again looking healthy for tonights session.


----------



## nulla nulla (14 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dow closed up 75.68 losing a little ground in the closing stages to close at 11096. Yesterday we finished the session up 4.8 points to close on 4691.

If we were following the dow, we would be closer to 5500 on the pre GFC comparison or 5000 on the recovery from March 2009 to November 2009 comparison. 

I think the Dow is inflated atm, only problem is, when their bubble bursts it will bring everyone down again.


----------



## Edwood (14 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Synergy said:


> Currently the DOW is up 5.7% for the year.
> 
> The XAO is down 3.3%




don't forget the currency effect tho Synergy - AUD is up around 10% for the year on USD


----------



## satanoperca (14 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nice rising wedge pattern formed and is getting tighter and tighter, which way will it break.

Cheers


----------



## IFocus (15 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



satanoperca said:


> Nice rising wedge pattern formed and is getting tighter and tighter, which way will it break.
> 
> Cheers




Don't see many of these on the XAO

.


----------



## Whiskers (20 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, with China increasing interest rates it seems to have triggered the correction that we all knew was coming with currencies and commodities and flow through to the share market.

I think I got my "b" a bit early before, but I'm happy that it's in now, with an Expanded Flat correction, wave 'b' building up the slingshot tension for a 'c' drive towards 4,500.

Gees, I hope I got it right, ... cos I've been on the sidelines for a few days waiting... and waiting to get back into stocks at lower prices.


----------



## sammy84 (20 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Well, with China increasing interest rates it seems to have triggered the correction that we all knew was coming with currencies and commodities and flow through to the share market.
> 
> I think I got my "b" a bit early before, but I'm happy that it's in now, with an Expanded Flat correction, wave 'b' building up the slingshot tension for a 'c' drive towards 4,500.
> 
> Gees, I hope I got it right, ... cos I've been on the sidelines for a few days waiting... and waiting to get back into stocks at lower prices.




Can you pls post up a chart?  I would've thought your wave C would be a move up?


----------



## jonojpsg (20 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Can you pls post up a chart?  I would've thought your wave C would be a move up?




I think he's referring to chart in post 8361 above aren't you whiskers?


----------



## skc (21 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



IFocus said:


> Don't see many of these on the XAO
> 
> .




The expanding wedge? You can probably make the case that we just had one from May to July...


----------



## satanoperca (21 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*




cheers


----------



## Whiskers (21 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Can you pls post up a chart?  I would've thought your wave C would be a move up?






jonojpsg said:


> I think he's referring to chart in post 8361 above aren't you whiskers?




Yeah, I'm still happy with a Diag Triangle pattern for *'i'* up, rather than a corrective Triangle... but as I mentioned I think I was a bit premature with my 'b', given that I am looking for a larger degree correction.

Given the EW experts say a wave two correction is often short and sharp, although one would usually associate that with a zig zag, it looks to me like a stock market correction will be more a currency based/triggered realignment to the trade and curency wars than any other fundamentals, hence the reason I use the rubber band analogy for an Expanded Flat correction.


----------



## Sean K (21 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

4600 _should_ be decent support now you'd think so will be some task to break to the lower side.


----------



## Whiskers (21 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> 4600 _should_ be decent support now you'd think so will be some task to break to the lower side.




Yeah, that's true, but I'd expect a bit of an over reaction though given the amount of pent up anxiety about the currency/trade war... a spike down to 4,550ish in the next few days would still be about the uptrend (support) line and be near 161% to make my Expanded Flat correction scenerio valid, before continuing the uptrend.


----------



## Sean K (22 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> a spike down to 4,550ish in the next few days would still be about the uptrend (support) line and be near 161% to make my Expanded Flat correction scenerio valid, before continuing the uptrend.



4500-600 firming up imo. 

Fundamentally, the only risk is if QE2 is well under expectations. Market's factoring in $500m - $1t, I think.


----------



## Whiskers (22 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> 4500-600 firming up imo.
> 
> Fundamentally, the only risk is if QE2 is well under expectations. Market's factoring in $500m - $1t, I think.




I was watching the close, closely today on the 5 min chart... after I noticed what looked like a ivth wave Diagonal finish off... and to my expectation, but surprise, (I'd have stayed out of the market) it pushed up through the top of a Diagonal Triangle to what looks like pretty much wave 'v'... which seems to me to be the completion of a reversal correction from Wednesdays low.

In other words, I'm expecting we will be heading lower or at least close lower on Monday. 

Mind you this EW stuff is pretty vague and often  hard (for me at least  ) to get right first time... but this one looks too tempting to not call. 

C'mon all yer EW guys... what do yer think?


----------



## skc (22 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> 4500-600 firming up imo.
> 
> Fundamentally, the only risk is if QE2 is well under expectations. Market's factoring in $500m - $1t, I think.




I get this feeling that we will have buy the rumour sell the fact.

So a run up until QE2 announcement (what's the exact date?)... then after the announcement, the headline will read something like:

"Market falls on doubts that QE2 will work"
"Bigger than expected QE2 points to signficiant economic downside"


----------



## Whiskers (22 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> I get this feeling that we will have buy the rumour sell the fact.
> 
> So a run up until QE2 announcement *(what's the exact date?)... *then after the announcement, the headline will read something like:
> 
> ...





I think they will wait until after the 3rd qtr GDP (I think Friday 29th) and maybe the next FOMC on 3rd Nov... the day after their mid term elections, for an announcement. I suspect they would want a bit more data and want to avoid an announcement on the eve of their elections... wouldn't they!?

PS: Given our RBA meeting is for Nov 2nd also, and there seems to be a turnaround started in the AUD/USD and a strengthening USD generally, my bet is they will hold off any rate increase for a bit longer to see how that pans out.


----------



## jonojpsg (23 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I think they will wait until after the 3rd qtr GDP (I think Friday 29th) and maybe the next FOMC on 3rd Nov... the day after their mid term elections, for an announcement. I suspect they would want a bit more data and want to avoid an announcement on the eve of their elections... wouldn't they!?
> 
> PS: Given our RBA meeting is for Nov 2nd also, and there seems to be a turnaround started in the AUD/USD and a strengthening USD generally, my bet is they will hold off any rate increase for a bit longer to see how that pans out.




So short on Tuesday Nov 2 then in anticipation of the downward move - keeping stops tight of course


----------



## Whiskers (27 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

CPI came in at .7%... lower end of forecasts.

AUD did a dip... now what's the XAO going to do?


----------



## Broadway (27 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like it was a fun day on the SFE.
Anyone know whats been going on?
I just got back from work so missed most of it.
So let me get this right...
Spi opens up a little after the ES gets supported and NAB does well, 1130 hits with less than expected cpi, AUD crashes, rate hikes less likely, and the SFE collapses for some unknown reason. Then they open with a preopen auction system at 1.10pm where the spi is close to where it was before the computers crashed, but proceeds to slide 50 points as people panic because they dont want to hold longs while the sfe is in a glitchy state. 
But then volume kicks in, because sentiment and funds are pushing north, and maybe its just all a good buying opportunity.

Good fun me thinks


----------



## UPKA (27 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Looks like it was a fun day on the SFE.
> Anyone know whats been going on?
> I just got back from work so missed most of it.
> So let me get this right...
> ...





ASX Trade 24, or the old SFE sycom system was down for half the day, got backup around 130pm. i guess its mainly traders hedging their XAO positions on AP pushed the market straight down... 

Also there's news that beijing is cracking down on illegal capital flows, which may limit the amount of funds going overseas, meaning we'll see less and less of the chinese money into australia?


----------



## Whiskers (27 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> I get this feeling that we will have buy the rumour sell the fact.
> 
> So a run up until QE2 announcement (*what's the exact date ?*)... then after the announcement, the headline will read something like:
> 
> ...




Just been reading an article that reflects my concern that the USD correction is over cooked and artifically driving commodity prices too high.

Something is going to break soon. T'Ã­s a question of how much the surge in commodity prices (in particular) to near pre GFC highs is just exchange rate or inflated by speculation on the USD weakness.

This is one hell of a balancing act they're trying to pull off... and the longer it goes on the more I think it may rebound or recoil (in the case of commodities) with avengeance.



http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Recov...8.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=


----------



## Broadway (28 October 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> But then volume kicks in, because sentiment and funds are pushing north, and maybe its just all a good buying opportunity.




Volume...


----------



## Whiskers (2 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I wish the RBA didn't lift the rate .25 to 4.75 today! 

This so called prudent "early, modest tightening" seems more like a gamble to me.

I think they got it wrong, with so many areas of the economy slowing or flat and puting too much emphasis on our improving terms of trade, which is clearly at the mercy of the USD trade/currency wars. 

On the TA I have modified my EW count a little in light of the XAO defying gravity and MACD Divergance of late, but still see a significant correction coming.


----------



## tech/a (2 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO Weekly
In No mans land


----------



## Whiskers (10 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some wider than normal activity in the last couple of hours of US trading.

Is this finally the top I've been waiting for?

The nab October busines survey http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ober-NA-pd20101109-B228L?OpenDocument&src=hp6  reports business conditions below trend and seems to support my earlier view that the RBA jumped the gun with it's so called prudent "early, modest tightening".


----------



## Whiskers (11 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just to try and dampen any enthusiasm (and try to make my prophecy come true  from a modest recovery from the US overnight, I thought I'd mention the Dark Cloud heading up the Three Black Crows candlestick formation as of yesterdays close.

The breakout above the thin white line is consistant with a completing Diagonal Triangle pattern, but what is needed now is for the trend support about the heavy white line to be broken shortly.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I reckon we're heading for a thumping next week.  Back to approx 4600-4700.  If the big symmetrical triangle (yellow) gets busted to the downside it will spell disaster.  Smaller channel in dark blue needs to be broken first.

My chart here -   http://i51.tinypic.com/rc3axw.jpg


----------



## Logique (11 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm very much on board with the propositions you put Whiskers and Gringotts, on your the charts above. Perhaps it's just my confirmation bias operating. Don't like the negative talk about the PIIGS nations in the press in recent days.


----------



## sammy84 (11 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Seasonality has to be considered. November/December (Christmas rally) is usually a good time to be long.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not sure what the retail sales figures are in the media, but at street level, I've heard of a number of successful businesses reporting sales figures off by _up to one half_ in the last 6-12 months.  These are _very _successful long term businesses that didn't suffer at all during the GFC.  And now they are.  

The Christmas sales figures will be very telling this year I think.  I just don't get the feeling people are buying at all. I blame the astronomical rise in the cost of living (food and utilities, especially electricity).  

Watching for 3 red days with successive higher volume.  O'Neill likes these as markers of big downwards turn.  They have been pretty reliable, however the last ones in mid May were short lived.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

edit: that's small Melbourne businesses, discretionary retail, successful over the long term - now showing strong dowturns.  Big business may be a different story, but I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Cinemas, cafes and nightclubs are supposedly where spending cuts are seen first.  What are people seeing out there?  Tell us what city you're in.


----------



## Whiskers (11 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Not sure what the retail sales figures are in the media, but at street level, I've heard of a number of successful businesses reporting sales figures off by _up to one half_ in the last 6-12 months.  These are _very _successful long term businesses that didn't suffer at all during the GFC.  And now they are.
> 
> The Christmas sales figures will be very telling this year I think.  I just don't get the feeling people are buying at all. I blame the astronomical rise in the cost of living (food and utilities, especially electricity).
> 
> Watching for 3 red days with successive higher volume.  O'Neill likes these as markers of big downwards turn.  They have been pretty reliable, however the last ones in mid May were short lived.




The october nab business survey link from my earlier post (8396 I think) mentioned something similar, in part:

_National Australia Bank Ltd's monthly business survey said significant falls were registered in trading and profitability, leaving the "nascent recovery" recorded in the September survey "on hold".

Profitability was negative for the first time in more than two years, the survey said​_


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Thanks whiskers.  Tricky situation.  There won't be any handouts (stimuli) to stave off another recession.  This time it will be up to us consumers to stimulate ourselves.


----------



## lusk (12 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks whiskers.  Tricky situation.  There won't be any handouts (stimuli) to stave off another recession.  This time it will be up to us consumers to stimulate ourselves.




I wouldn't bet against it, who would have thought they'd hand out cash in the first place


----------



## Whiskers (13 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Struth, often one can't get enough 'signs' about where the market is going, but it seems to me we now have a Pennant Flag, (albeit it only a day and a half inside trading) on top of the Dark Cloud and Three Black Crows. What do yer rockon about this little succession of signs?  Is this a sign or what!? 

Ignoring my tentative EW count these latest signs with the turnaround here yesterday and over 1% falls in the US overnight seem to point to a test of recent support levels and my 50% retracement (from the August low) just below.

If my EW count is correct we have a wave III complete and the question is are we heading into a wave four or the start of that dreaded larger degree wave 'C'  that the doomsdayers reckon is coming, down to who knows where ?

PS: I hope all you guys that have been busy in the "Potential Breakout Alerts" thread are watching your backs.


----------



## Trembling Hand (13 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers I haven't read Nison Candle stick trading or know anything about EW or even Pennant Flaggy thingos but are you calling a significant top is in?


----------



## Whiskers (13 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Whiskers I haven't read Nison Candle stick trading or know anything about EW or even Pennant Flaggy thingos but are you calling a significant top is in?




Depends on how much you consider as significant. My best estimation atm is that we will test that support and probably carry on a little slow Bull, or let's say 'Bull Calf'  market. 

I haven't mastered EW by any means, but based on FA mostly including a bit of market psychology , if that TA pattern happens, it seems to be setting up a larger degree Diagional Triangle pattern which would be consistant with my FA... a slower Bull (calf) market for some time yet.

But I'm all ears if some one can convince me I've got these signs all wrong.


----------



## nulla nulla (13 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks whiskers.  Tricky situation.  There won't be any handouts (stimuli) to stave off another recession.  This time it will be up to us consumers to stimulate ourselves.






lusk said:


> I wouldn't bet against it, who would have thought they'd hand out cash in the first place




I'd be surprised if Australia would do another stimulus handout. With parity of the aud$ to the u.s$ too much of it would go overseas.


----------



## skc (15 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Struth, often one can't get enough 'signs' about where the market is going, but it seems to me we now have a Pennant Flag, (albeit it only a day and a half inside trading) on top of the Dark Cloud and Three Black Crows. What do yer rockon about this little succession of signs?  Is this a sign or what!?




Can't you argue that similiar candle patterns were observed in end of Sept/early Oct?

Dark cloud, 3 black crows, pennant...Until it broke upwards. Or perhaps they are not perfect examples of these candle patterns.

Sure looks like we are taking a breather, but it might be pretty short and sweet. That $600B can't just sit there...


----------



## Logique (15 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Well I think the Bears have cause to be nervous...And that 4900 by Christmas is entirely possible, if not likely...



Thought I'd revisit the long term chart from the Sept post. Still looks bullish to me. However I'd be more than happy to see a near term retracement, so I could do some re-balancing. So get to work you Bears.


----------



## Whiskers (15 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Can't you argue that similiar candle patterns were observed in end of Sept/early Oct?
> 
> Dark cloud, 3 black crows, pennant...Until it broke upwards. Or perhaps they are not perfect examples of these candle patterns.
> 
> Sure looks like we are taking a breather, but it might be pretty short and sweet. That $600B can't just sit there...




skc, I have to admit I was thinking along the same lines at that point. That's when I was starting to expect a retracement even though the pattern wasn't strictly right.

Firstly the dark cloud... it must appear in a clear uptrend. The first candle must be a long up candle and the second must open higher but close at least half way down the first candle.

Similarly with the Three Black Crows, the stronger the bull run the better the signal. There will be many cases of three lower highs and lower lows in a bear or choppy market.

With your pennant query, he green candle retraced too far for me. The reason I liked my pennant is because the trading was always inside the previous days candle until it broke down... a good sign for me with such a small scale pennant.

Interestingly, but probably not surprisingly it recovered a little to close pretty much on the uptrend line.


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Firstly the dark cloud... it must appear in a clear uptrend. The first candle must be a long up candle and the second must open higher but close at least half way down the first candle.
> 
> Similarly with the Three Black Crows, the stronger the bull run the better the signal. There will be many cases of three lower highs and lower lows in a bear or choppy market.




So says chandle stick myth. But do you know the stats on this set up?

or is it like the famed H & S? Running at 16% correct out come?


----------



## professor_frink (15 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> So says chandle stick myth. But do you know the stats on this set up?
> 
> or is it like the famed H & S? Running at 16% correct out come?




dunno bout that cloud cover thing, but I do know just enough about 3 consecutive down candles on the XAO to know that I wouldn't be getting short on a regular basis after it happens


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> dunno bout that cloud cover thing, but I do know just enough about 3 consecutive down candles on the XAO to know that I wouldn't be getting short on a regular basis after it happens




Mate give them some rope to play with before ya pull it tight.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Stats on 3 black crows = 76% chance reversal (American markets anyway).  See here for details.

http://thepatternsite.com/ThreeBlackCrows.html


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Stats on 3 black crows = 76% chance reversal (American markets anyway).  See here for details.
> 
> http://thepatternsite.com/ThreeBlackCrows.html





of it trading under the lowest candle. But thats hardly 76% chance of a good R:R trade that you can apply. Is it?

This quote is along my thinking,



> A check of the performance over 10 days shows some startling results: *Do not trade this if the breakout is downward.* Only upward breakouts are worth considering. If you remove the 10 day restriction, then the worst performance comes from three black crows in a bull market, regardless of the breakout direction.


----------



## tech/a (15 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> So says chandle stick myth. But do you know the stats on this set up?
> 
> or is it like the famed H & S? Running at 16% correct out come?




There is a great deal of % information bandied about on various technical 
"setups" From Elliot to Candlesticks to Conventional and not forgetting VSA.

Checking these reported results is nigh impossible. Yet many blindly follow singular setups and wonder why they dint get a similar result.
Reason 1 is the result is not correct.
2 is there are other considerations.

I have a small group who in time will be testing most setups rigorously under auditable conditions. The results will be interesting.


----------



## Whiskers (15 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> dunno bout that cloud cover thing, but I do know just enough about 3 consecutive down candles on the XAO to know that I wouldn't be getting short on a regular basis after it happens




No, I wouldn't in isolation either, prof. For me it's not about hanging everything on a single sign or signal, TA or FA, but weighing up the sum of all the signals.

Btw, actually it's probably not a strict 'Three Black Crows' since they actually should have opened higher than the previous close... but don't tell TH or I'll be running from a lynching party. 

But since the markets have become automated and faster since these techniques were originally developed, I think one needs to look for the 'psychology' behind the configuration more than the strict geometry. 



Trembling Hand said:


> So says chandle stick myth. But do you know the stats on this set up?
> 
> or is it like the famed H & S? Running at 16% correct out come?




TH, mate... how many times have I emphasised context in the past. :

It's just one tool TH (I did say sign), amongst many to gel into market analysis and risk management. You should note, in my full estimation I had earlier mentioned what looked like a bigger picture Diag Triangle EW pattern with a breakout above to finish off. The Dark Cloud supported that and my FA. The Black Crows while not technically perfect, seemed to fit for all intention purposes... and then the little pennant broke down, but maybe a bigger pennant is not complete yet, since although it has nudged through my uptrend line it want's to bounce off 4,767 atm. 

The bottom line for me though is the market action today, while not absolutely confirming my current analysis, hasn't in any way contributed to disproving it. So I'm still erring on the side of caution and thinking short and waiting for a 'sign' of bullishness to return.

PS: techa, you summed up what I was trying to get at, nicely. 



tech/a said:


> *There is a great deal of % information bandied about on various technical
> "setups" From Elliot to Candlesticks to Conventional and not forgetting VSA.*
> Checking these reported results is nigh impossible. Yet many blindly follow singular setups and wonder why they dint get a similar result.
> Reason 1 is the result is not correct.
> ...


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yep as i thought whiskers. Carry on mate.

I guess you also have the 23% drop in sugar in two days to worry about. Weren't you telling us how thats a significant driver of the Australia economy?


----------



## Whiskers (15 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yep as i thought whiskers. Carry on mate.




Ok... 




> I guess you also have the 23% drop in sugar in two days to worry about. Weren't you telling us how thats a significant driver of the Australia economy?




No, not too worried there since it's coming off a decent recent high and I think a significant element there is the currency trade wars... the AUD has also fallen back a little to buff the fall to a degree, like all commodities.

I'm thinking the US attempts to suppress it's currency (for a short term fix) may be getting exhausted, since their dependance on imports will hurt their economy too much if they carry on for too long. The USD/JPY seems to be breaking higher and may be a sign. 

...a bit of context there mate.


----------



## professor_frink (15 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Mate give them some rope to play with before ya pull it tight.




LOL!



Whiskers said:


> No, I wouldn't in isolation either, prof. For me it's not about hanging everything on a single sign or signal, TA or FA, but weighing up the sum of all the signals.
> 
> Btw, actually it's probably not a strict 'Three Black Crows' since they actually should have opened higher than the previous close... but don't tell TH or I'll be running from a lynching party.
> 
> But since the markets have become automated and faster since these techniques were originally developed, I think one needs to look for the 'psychology' behind the configuration more than the strict geometry.




whiskers, I really can't see how this can even be considered as a piece of information to be used in building the  case for a selloff. On average, following that type of 3 day selloff, the market has been pretty well neutral/very slightly bearish for about 2 days, and is generally bullish afterwards.


----------



## Logique (16 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Three black crows signals three days of rain, anybody knows that. Exactly whats happening here, the sky has sprung a leak.


----------



## Broadway (16 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So the US Fed wants to devalue the US dollar and create an equity wealth effect to bolster the US economy.
But maybe the fed plans wont work.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-trim-gains-as-treasury-yields-rise-2010-11-15

Im not a fan of crow patterns but news does get my attention.


----------



## Frank D (16 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I have a small group who in time will be testing most setups rigorously under auditable conditions. The results will be interesting.




Tech/A,

can you give me examples of two setups you'll be testing?

Frank


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

3 red days on successively higher volume is what I look for.  Hasn't happened yet.


----------



## tech/a (16 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Frank D said:


> Tech/A,
> 
> can you give me examples of two setups you'll be testing?
> 
> Frank




Frank

The Plan is to test all VSA signals to start with 
(1) Stand alone,Volume or Range close only or together.
Some are multiple bar setups.
(2) With Contributing analysis like Support /Resistance.
Stops/time in play/position in trend/background.

We are going to be using Met lab/Tradesim with "C" and metastock over a long period of time.
Son is a Doc of Physics with an interest in the analysis of stock markets from a technical view.
I haven't been able to find exhaustive research and the purveyors of techniques wont or dont want to share analysis.
Our intent is to not only answer the questions for our interest and use but to have papers available for sale.


----------



## Frank D (16 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> The Plan is to test all VSA signals to start with
> (1) Stand alone,Volume or Range close only or together.
> Some are multiple bar setups.
> (2) With Contributing analysis like Support /Resistance.
> Stops/time in play/position in trend/background.




Good luck, there’s a lot of work involved and I’ll look forward to the results.

I'll also be interested in what ‘entry’ you’ll be using to validate the testing.


----------



## Whiskers (16 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> whiskers, I really can't see how this can even be considered as a piece of information to be used in building the  case for a selloff.




If you're referring specifically to the Black Crows thingo... I did say "No, I wouldn't in isolation either". 

I did say they were not a technically correct example, but for all intention purposes it looked the part. It really is the lowest priority or weighted element of that analysis, thrown in cos it nicely joined the dots of higher priority 'signs' ie FA, some other TA that I didn't mention, likely EW scenerios, trend, the Dark Cloud and the pennant.



> On average, following that type of 3 day selloff, the market has been pretty well neutral/very slightly bearish for about 2 days, and is generally bullish afterwards.




Maybe you could show an example and I'll scruetenise whether it's the same as I'm talking about. 

I think it is reasonable to expect some sideways consolidation after a relatively strong move to let the dust settle and reeveluate things. That sideways 'consolidation' appears to be all bearish so far within a larger pennant, decending triangle, or even maybe an EW Triangle wave b.

Either way I can't see any bullish signs yet. Even the FA today is starting to weigh a bit heavy on BHP.


----------



## tech/a (16 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Frank D said:


> Good luck, there’s a lot of work involved and I’ll look forward to the results.
> 
> I'll also be interested in what ‘entry’ you’ll be using to validate the testing.




There in lies some issues.
How long is a signal considered valid? (VSA state 3-5 periods)
So for VSA at least youd want to know if the signal is valid (in context to a trade) for a buy or sell over X periods.
Not hard to do in increments.

Yes a very long process and one we will only be doing when we have time which isnt something any of us have in excess.


----------



## Whiskers (16 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Three black crows signals three days of rain, anybody knows that. Exactly whats happening here, the sky has sprung a leak.




I think that's three black cockatoos mate... at least that's the myth around here... well maybe not myth... there were a lot of black cockatoos around here before all the rain too! 

But, back to those Three Black Crows.  

The EURUSD daily chart is a more technically correct example. Again, it's a low weighting in my analysis, but it is supporting a reversal of the USD and probable exhaustion of their devaluation efforts for the moment and commodity prices by default, which also supports a breather in our market while everyone reassess where the equilibruim will fall again.


----------



## professor_frink (16 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> If you're referring specifically to the Black Crows thingo... I did say "No, I wouldn't in isolation either".
> 
> I did say they were not a technically correct example, but for all intention purposes it looked the part. It really is the lowest priority or weighted element of that analysis, thrown in cos it nicely joined the dots of higher priority 'signs' ie FA, some other TA that I didn't mention, likely EW scenerios, trend, the Dark Cloud and the pennant.
> 
> ...




Whiskers, it's truly astounding that you've missed my point, I don't think I could have been any clearer.

I highly doubt me posting charts is going to do anything, it would appear that your mind is already made up on that one, so I'll leave you to it.

Good luck with your shorts, hope it works for you


----------



## Whiskers (16 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Whiskers, it's truly astounding that you've missed my point, I don't think I could have been any clearer.




No, I got your point... you said "I really can't see how this can even be considered as a piece of information to be used in building the case for a selloff."

That's OK if you don't see, prof. Different tradesmen prefer different tools.




> Good luck with your shorts, hope it works for you




I don't believe in luck... but thanks for the thought anyway 

Everything happens for a reason... luck or chance are just ways to describe what we don't understand.


----------



## sinner (16 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> No, I got your point... you said "I really can't see how this can even be considered as a piece of information to be used in building the case for a selloff."
> 
> That's OK if you don't see, prof. Different tradesmen prefer different tools.
> 
> ...




I am pretty sure you didn't get the point.

The point is, you are using a "tool", but you just reached into the toolbox and pulled out whatever felt like a spanner.

frink is pointing out the historical results on this pattern are not generally bearish, doesn't matter if you find it geometrically or just looking for the psychology of the move. Doesn't matter if it's the lowest weighted element. In fact, you should probably do some analysis and weight it higher!

If you go to thepatternsite link Gringotts posted, or just look at the snippet which TH pasted, you can see it is not recommended to use this pattern for shorting. 

I can't believe this statement didn't give you pause:
"If you remove the 10 day restriction, then the worst performance comes from three black crows in a bull market, regardless of the breakout direction."


----------



## Whiskers (16 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sinner said:


> I am pretty sure you didn't get the point.
> 
> The point is, you are using a "tool", but you just reached into the toolbox and pulled out whatever felt like a spanner.




Oh no I'm not! Tis just that I ain't got the dodgy spanner you think I got.



> frink is pointing out the historical results on this pattern are not generally bearish, doesn't matter if you find it geometrically or just looking for the psychology of the move. Doesn't matter if it's the lowest weighted element. In fact, you should probably do some analysis and weight it higher!
> 
> If you go to thepatternsite link Gringotts posted, or just look at the snippet which TH pasted, you can see it is not recommended to use this pattern for shorting.




Yes he's pointing out Bulkowski's results from a clearly different and looser interpretation/criteria to what I explained.



> I can't believe this statement didn't give you pause:
> "If you remove the 10 day restriction, then the worst performance comes from three black crows in a bull market, regardless of the breakout direction."




*The full paragraph should have given you guys cause to pause... upward and downward breakouts!!? **The Three Black Crows is a downward reversal*.



> *A check of the performance over 10 days shows some startling results: Do not trade this if the breakout is downward. Only upward breakouts are worth considering. If you remove the 10 day restriction, then the worst performance comes from three black crows in a bull market, regardless of the breakout direction*.





I read Bulkowski's site http://thepatternsite.com/ThreeBlackCrows.html ages ago before I settled on better criteria for Three Black Crows. 

You will all note from my earlier post that I said


Whiskers said:


> Similarly with the Three Black Crows, the stronger the bull run the better the signal. There will be many cases of three lower highs and lower lows in a bear or choppy market.




My code book for Three Black Crows stipulates that a bull market is required to generate this signal. Repeating what I said earlier to try to clarify the context of the signal, this configuration will occur often in a bear or choppy market, but does not qualify as a Three Black Crows reversal signal. 

*Looking further down Bulkowski's page you would have seen his example. It clearly is in a choppy down trend, not a bull market.*You will note that Bulkowski's is using the candle configuration in a much looser criteria and consequently poorer results.

The other point to make is the same pattern in reverse, ie at the end of a bear run, signalling a bull reversal is called Three White Soldiers in my book.

PS: That 10 day restriction thingo is misleading cos it ignores the degree of the reversal. Since I'm talking about a bull market correction, it's hardly likely to last 10 days in a smaller degree correction that I'm talking about, before moving up again


----------



## Logique (17 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Great read on the Three Black Crows.
Interesting the publication using Alcoa as an example, which fell 2.7% last night. 

I'm not sure about the pattern in isolation as a pointer to price movements, more of a 'wait and see' signal, check in combination with other indicators.

A little unfair that overseas issues will drag our market down today (at least), perhaps distorting the outcome of the crows. Bring it on.


----------



## sammy84 (17 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm not convinced of this weakness. Had a look for short set ups last night and found nothing. 

Nothing sinister yet to suggesst this is more than a retracement. 

Will be going long is signs of strength appear after lunch.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Chart showing the dominant channel with lots of touches on the parallels.  A bounce back toward the white line tomorrow wouldn't be out of the question.

http://tinypic.com/r/fas8zl/7


----------



## tech/a (17 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> I'm not convinced of this weakness. Had a look for short set ups last night and found nothing.
> 
> Nothing sinister yet to suggesst this is more than a retracement.
> 
> Will be going long is signs of strength appear after lunch.




You may like to consider that while we may not have immediate signs other bourses like the US do.
I dont agree with you.
You may also be swayed by the 3 crows discussion---what if he's right!!
Trade what the market gives you.


----------



## professor_frink (17 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> You may like to consider that while we may not have immediate signs other bourses like the US do.
> I dont agree with you.
> You may also be swayed by the 3 crows discussion---what if he's right!!
> Trade what the market gives you.




What's going on on the US markets that has you worried tech?


----------



## tech/a (17 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> What's going on on the US markets that has you worried tech?




There are strong resistance technical setups which have come into play in all the RUSSELL
DJI
and NASDAQ.

With all 3 correlating strongly and the steady decline over the past few sessions-- I feel we may see only corrective up moves in a new down thrust if price falls past old resistance levels (which should act as support).
We have one on the XJO at 4600. Trading below here and it wont be nice.

I'm not happy either with my portfolio profit dissolving 50% this morning.
So 4600 the key here.


----------



## sammy84 (17 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> There are strong resistance technical setups which have come into play in all the RUSSELL
> DJI
> and NASDAQ.
> 
> ...




Fair enough.

Yeah resistance on the majors is noticeable, however, individual stocks patterns are providing less confirmation. Many stocks are holding up which seems to be showing some buying is still around. Still thinking that this is merely consolidation occuring around resistance. 

Big fan of seasonality and therefore like to be long in December when the odds are on my side.

Need to see some strength *soon though to make me want to enter. 4652 is where I am wrong. I'm not overly long at the moment so don't mind either way.

Don't like this headline in the Fairfax papers however- 'Shares tipped to recover'*


----------



## professor_frink (17 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> There are strong resistance technical setups which have come into play in all the RUSSELL
> DJI
> and NASDAQ.
> 
> ...




cheers tech

Don't really follow the russell or dow too closely, but the 1220-1225 on the SPX that I've had highlighted on my charts  for a while seems to line up with that general theme fairly well. 

Whilst the markets over there have definitely hit a bit of a roadblock for the time being, personally I still favour dip buying right now. Sentiment was definitely getting to historically high levels recently, but I usually look for some kind of deterioration in the breadth/strength of a rally before I start looking for shorts, and so far I really haven't seen enough of that yet to think that there will be much more to the current selloff than we've already seen.

Personally I'd prefer to throw some bids out there at the moment and then see how the action unfolds for the rest of the week. 

Could be wrong of course, but that's what stops are for!


----------



## Logique (17 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Chart showing the dominant channel with lots of touches on the parallels.  A bounce back toward the white line tomorrow wouldn't be out of the question.



Thanks Gringotts that chart puts things into context. Looks like some tech support for the XAO at 4700, if that fails then the all important test of 4600 like Tech said. 

I believe in that channel. So bring it on.


----------



## tech/a (17 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Could be wrong of course, but that's what stops are for!




Mine are going off like crackers now!


----------



## Whiskers (17 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I don't want to start a panic sell-off here, but has any of you noticed the Dark Cloud over the weekly chart as well... and stone the crows if that isn't a good start to another more serious Three Black Crows. 

I'm with you Sammy, I was expecting or maybe hoping around 4600ish I would start buying again... but I''m only about 60% strong on that scenerio and 40% on a bigger correction.


----------



## Edwood (17 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

and while its not a tradeable signal in its own right, don't forget we had a cluster of Hindenberg Omens not so long ago so the markets have been showing signs of underlying stress for a while.  just something to be aware of really, not suggesting we're going to tank


----------



## tech/a (18 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So there we have it a small positive retracement (expected today) and tommorow------


----------



## Whiskers (18 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Edwood said:


> and while its not a tradeable signal in its own right, don't forget we had a cluster of Hindenberg Omens not so long ago so *the markets have been showing signs of underlying stress for a while. * just something to be aware of really, not suggesting we're going to tank




I think you're quite right there Edwood. I think too often we get too obsessed with looking for 'tradable signals' and systems that we loose sight of the macro 'signs'.


Probably a good time to elaborate on my earlier 'sign'. 

It started with the Dark Cloud. Then the Three Black Crows... then the Pennant... in isolation, not too fantastic,  but when they all overlap, ie shares a common candle with each other, collectively they gain more significance. 

Then the same pattern starting to repeat in the weekly...

Now for the candle stick critics, candles as with bars or P&F or any other chart, simply reflects price action over time as you would surely have heard others explain in detail at times. The key is understanding the pattern... price action = chart pattern.

For the doubters of chart analysis, the expression 'all things being equal' or equilibruim, must never be forgotten... and one thing that has not been equal is Stimulus and again recently is the US QE bonk*.

An example in the last big bull was the amount of money flowing into the Aus market from changes to superannuation rules for example that pumped our market ahead of the pack.




tech/a said:


> So there we have it a small positive retracement (expected today) *and tommorow*------




Good question tech. 



The AUDUSD weekly is an interesting sign for me. , look at where the Dark Clouds are in the context of 'Ã¡ll things being equal' or not,  money flow,  price action and how to interpret the image or chart of that action.

Similar clues in the EURUSD and XAUUSD reinforced my top call... but the key for me as to the degree of the correction is the rate at which the USD increases and the POG and commodities come off the bonk*.

From an EW perspective my 40% concern is that the QE bonk* may have shaped the start of a larger degree expanded flat pattern correction... a (normal) correction starts, the price action rebounds extraordinarly for some reason like a QE or unexpected interest rate move, before the forces bonk* and launches it back to and probably past equilibruim.


_* Hitting the wall, a condition in endurance sports where depletion of glycogen stores results in sudden and severe fatigue​_


----------



## professor_frink (18 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I think you're quite right there Edwood. I think too often we get too obsessed with looking for 'tradable signals' and systems that we loose sight of the macro 'signs'.
> 
> 
> Probably a good time to elaborate on my earlier 'sign'.
> ...




So is it a significant top your calling now whiskers??


----------



## Broadway (18 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Commodities might be hitting some volume.

dbb,bdd,iym,jjm are general commodity etfs.
Next 4 are gold etfs.
HG is copper.
uso and uco are oil etfs.


----------



## tech/a (19 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Good question tech.




Appears to have been answered.
Would have surprised many!


----------



## Whiskers (22 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> So is it a significant top your calling now whiskers??




That's the $64 question.



Broadway said:


> Commodities might be hitting some volume.
> 
> dbb,bdd,iym,jjm are general commodity etfs.
> Next 4 are gold etfs.
> ...




I have no doubt the answer is in commodoties, ie our XMM index.

On face value it's cause for serious concern, especially if history repeats itself.

I expect the bigger picture will be clearer in a week or two... but I still favor it having another go at 4,660 ish in the next few days. I think it's significant that this rebound hasn't broke back above 4,667 (at least so far) which was support before it broke lower.


----------



## Whiskers (22 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A few posts back I mentioned a clue to the markets next big move may be in the USDJPY breaking out of down trend and particularly the case that the USD has bottomed, as has been supported by the (proper) Three Black Crows on the EURUSD, Dark Cloud's on the AUDUSD and the POG.

But what this chart does show is the opposite of the Dark Cloud, a Piercing Line bullish signal and in this case followed by and overlapping with Three White Soldiers...* the Proper application of 'that' configuration *that what's-his-name  kept calling Three Black Crows wherever they appeared.

So, what is clear is the USD has bottomed and commodoties (generally) have topped out.

I reckon the net effect on the stock market cycle will be determined by how quickly and smoothly equilibruim of the USD pans out.


----------



## Whiskers (22 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> That's the $64 question.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Ooops... obviously should have been 4,767.


----------



## professor_frink (22 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> A few posts back I mentioned a clue to the markets next big move may be in the USDJPY breaking out of down trend and particularly the case that the USD has bottomed, as has been supported by the (proper) Three Black Crows on the EURUSD, Dark Cloud's on the AUDUSD and the POG.
> 
> But what this chart does show is the opposite of the Dark Cloud, a Piercing Line bullish signal and in this case followed by and overlapping with Three White Soldiers...* the Proper application of 'that' configuration *that what's-his-name  kept calling Three Black Crows wherever they appeared.
> 
> ...




In regards to weekly candle formations, have you looked at the DX from last  week? Might be worth looking into


----------



## Whiskers (22 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> In regards to weekly candle formations, have you looked at the DX from last  week? Might be worth looking into




Yeah... interesting you should mention that.

There are quite a lot of candle formations in there,(weekly chart) but I have highlighted yellow the significant Engulfing Bullish formations on the USDX and a corresponding Engulfing Bearinh on the EURUSD where 'D' ought to have been. I have drawn the 'B', 'D' line on the USDX where I reckon it ought have been, but for 'market manipulation'. Note we also have the Three Black Crows on the EUR USD daily chart at 'D'.

I suppose the standard belief is that the USD will fall eventually as a measure of it's real worth. But my theory or notion is the USA has been hell bent on artifically lowering the USD in an attempt to cure their short term 'Ã­ll health' a pep pill... but they will eventually get their wish when the right reason becoms the mass consciousness, although when it finally comes in due course, they may wish it hadn't, realising the longer term harm it causes or at least reflects in the (mis)management of their economy.

How all that theory/notion will affect the Aus commodity driven economy over the longer term... throw in a Mining tax again a bit down the track and...


----------



## ginar (23 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

key point in price here re XJO at 4600 level , has been support for >2 months . after being resistance since early may , definate line in the sand . the trend on 2 hourly is down but im keeping a close eye support level on daily . daily does look a little messy but 2 hour looks pretty neat . on 2 hour we have 4675 as reference above with 4600 below which being tested as i type , i also do plot last night out of hours low on cash as a level to watch . we cant break 5day50 currently so the bias is down . new 5 day lows keep being made . next few days make or break . today i need to see close above 4651 to be even remotely bullish , looks unlikely . fwiw the 5dayhighs will be at 4675  area by weeks end assuming we dont break above ... price action is king , time for caution whatever your bias . fwiw i trade the xjo/200/spi so im not at all interested in any of the usdx copper etc charts out there , only time i look at those is if a trade em . its all static otherwise . i suppose i should really post on spi threads . 

.......... trade well


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

update.  A sharp bounce off the orange line looking imminent - tomorrow or day after?  Followed by a snail's pace push back up to 4750?


----------



## tech/a (23 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Appears to have been answered.
> Would have surprised many!




All going to plan from what I can see.


----------



## nulla nulla (23 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> update.  A sharp bounce off the orange line looking imminent - tomorrow or day after?  Followed by a snail's pace push back up to 4750?




Looks more like Swanston St with crossing tram lines. The downward channel suggests support at 4550, while the upward minor channel suggest support at 4600 or there-abouts. If it breaks through the upward minor channel then we can expect it to test the lower support level. If it breaks through that...........????

If it wasn't for tls going against the trend today, with massive turnover, the fall on the xao would have been much worse than it was.


----------



## ginar (23 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> key point in price here re XJO at 4600 level , has been support for >2 months . after being resistance since early may , definate line in the sand . the trend on 2 hourly is down but im keeping a close eye support level on daily . daily does look a little messy but 2 hour looks pretty neat . on 2 hour we have 4675 as reference above with 4600 below which being tested as i type , i also do plot last night out of hours low on cash as a level to watch . we cant break 5day50 currently so the bias is down . new 5 day lows keep being made . next few days make or break . today i need to see close above 4651 to be even remotely bullish , looks unlikely . fwiw the 5dayhighs will be at 4675  area by weeks end assuming we dont break above ... price action is king , time for caution whatever your bias . fwiw i trade the xjo/200/spi so im not at all interested in any of the usdx copper etc charts out there , only time i look at those is if a trade em . its all static otherwise . i suppose i should really post on spi threads .
> 
> .......... trade well




cash200 tested bottom channel on 2 hour , 5day50 now at 4634 . love structure like this , its just so tradable , bit easier than sept and oct . trend well and trully intact . might get a counter from here but for now ill keep with the primary trend on this 2 hour , lower swings in both highs and lows continuing . no bend yet . still hope for support on daily but an up night is required overseas this evening . we lose support on daily and i dont see much to catch it above 4400 . its all dynamic and evaluation is required when reference levels fail


----------



## ginar (23 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> cash200 tested bottom channel on 2 hour , 5day50 now at 4634 . love structure like this , its just so tradable , bit easier than sept and oct . trend well and trully intact . might get a counter from here but for now ill keep with the primary trend on this 2 hour , lower swings in both highs and lows continuing . no bend yet . still hope for support on daily but an up night is required overseas this evening . we lose support on daily and i dont see much to catch it above 4400 . its all dynamic and evaluation is required when reference levels fail




daily trully is messy but i thought id add it anyway , pretty ordinary guide really , should have done some range analysis , i'll tackle that another time once 4600 is dealt with one way or the other


----------



## tech/a (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> All going to plan from what I can see.




Forget the mumbo jumbo/jibba jabba.

Should have been short since those Crows flew in.
This was seen ages ago charts never turned bullish.
Pulled back weakly as expected---it was/is all there.
It isn't that hard people-------


----------



## professor_frink (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Forget the mumbo jumbo/jibba jabba.
> 
> Should have been short since those Crows flew in.
> This was seen ages ago charts never turned bullish.
> ...




In what time frame are you talking about the charts never turning bullish? Are you referring to the past few days, or on a larger timeframe going back to late august/early september? 

Sorry for the repeated questioning, but you've piqued my interest a bit here. You and I have basically looked at charts from the same country's markets, come to the opposite conclusions, yet you've somehow managed to translate that over to the local market, and anticipate that it would be a lot weaker than the US, despite saying that "while we may not have immediate signs other bourses like the US do"(here).

I'd be interested to hear a little more about the process involved here, as it doesn't quite seem to make sense to me


----------



## ginar (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is just for interest sake . possible yet not probable . this is way too far out for me to trade or almost anyone for that matter


----------



## tech/a (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Happy to do so BUT
The XJO and XAO both showed weakness technically.
While the US lined up 3 bourse weakness the local market certainly showed in their own charts. (I dont have the US charts at the office).
Weakness continues as it has for some time.

The secret with all discretionary analysis is this:-

*The Analysis IS correct until proven incorrect.
From the 3 black Crows this chart just kept throwing
up technical confirmations of weakness.*

I dont know but perhaps everyone was looking at *WHY 3 Black *crows couldnt possibly indicate a prolonged downturn and not at the story building in the chart.The Black crows were strong evidence of a clear rejection at the top confirmation continued/s to build.

Second Chart is weekly.
You can clearly see the support areaqs below the current action and also the important RED Resistance which "Could" become support.


----------



## enigmatic (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Three Black Crows would be a typical event in an over heated market, i don't see a need to panic and even consider a prolonged down turn (although depends what you define as prolonged)

the dow has run up far to quickly over the 13weeks and our market is similar although we have seen far less of a rise and far more of a drop. 

But i guess if we only look at certain signals we can see anything.

the simple truth is the market is over heated and its cooling cant expect a 40% annual growth to be maintained in the market can you.

*Interesting if you look at all the THREE BLACK CROW events over the last 3 years it seems like they are followed up with Bullish rallies more then prolonged down turns


----------



## tech/a (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> But I guess if we only look at certain signals we can see anything




This implies that looking at the charts presented we could see something contrary to that shown.
Can you point that out to me as I cant see any alternative to the analysis shown---to support a contrary arguement.

As for timeframe its simply valid until proven invalid.
When it is-----so to will my bearish trading on the index.
And others.


----------



## Logique (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes the crows are doing their work today Tech/a,
aided by North Korea. The 4615 level very important, and looks shakey. If below that, a test of 4400 is not out of the question.


----------



## enigmatic (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm not implying that isn't an early sign for a prolonged down period.
I'm just stating what i see.

Maybe my analysis is flawed however Three Black crows does not seem to actually imply a negative prolonged down period after. If anything the reverse can normal be seen. 

It is possible my use of a selective data set has limited my result though so i will investigate more.

I however would agree if we continue and broke though the 250day moving avg i would be concerned. however would still not expect Prolonged down


----------



## nomore4s (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Pretty bullish day from open today so far. Asia looking quite strong atm, as well as Gold, oil & AUD rallying strongly this AM.

Asia lead the DOW last night and it could be looking to lead it again today


----------



## tech/a (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have no idea how long the chart will remain bearish.
But from the clear rejection of the high its stayed bearish.
Nothing has shown up in charts that I'm looking at to suggest anything is pointing to a change in current analysis.
So If short remain short if thinking about going long remain thinking about going long.If undecided I understand your pain-----believe in what your seeing dont try to pick bottoms or when it will occur soon enough and you'll see it.


----------



## Logique (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just messing around with some weekly indicators, using 11 EMA. Chart attached, make your own judgements.


----------



## Whiskers (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



enigmatic said:


> *Interesting if you look at all the THREE BLACK CROW events over the last 3 years it seems like they are followed up with Bullish rallies more then prolonged down turns




Haven't you been reading this thread for the last week or two!? 



enigmatic said:


> I'm not implying that isn't an early sign for a prolonged down period.
> I'm just stating what i see.
> 
> *Maybe my analysis is flawed **however Three Black crows does not seem to actually imply a negative prolonged down period after. If anything the reverse can normal be seen. *It is possible my use of a selective data set has limited my result though so* i will investigate more*.




Are you suggesting that chart shows Three Black Crows!!!?

Investigate back a couple of pages in this thread. 




tech/a said:


> I have no idea how long the chart will remain bearish.




I''ll be worrying my hair out until week end    to see if the pattern repeats in the weekly chart... ie whether the third Black Crow comes into land under the Dark Cloud. 



> But from the clear rejection of the high its stayed bearish.
> Nothing has shown up in charts that I'm looking at to suggest anything is pointing to a change in current analysis.
> So If short remain short if thinking about going long remain thinking about going long.If undecided I understand your pain-----believe in what your seeing *dont try to pick bottoms *or when it will occur soon enough and you'll see it.




Gee, that's my favourite pass time tech. It sure gets the conversation going at times. 



nomore4s said:


> Pretty bullish day from open today so far. Asia looking quite strong atm, as well as Gold, oil & AUD rallying strongly this AM.
> 
> Asia lead the DOW last night and it could be looking to lead it again today




Yeah, my target for this immediate correction has been reached. I'd expect it to bounce around 4,650 for awhile and retrace back up near 4,767. If it breaks back above 4,767 I'll stay with my current EW count and look for a new high over the next few weeks.

If it can't break up reasonably quickly, I'll be leaning to my 40% bigger Bear scenerio... unless I get a new new sign! 

PS:


Logique said:


> Just messing around with some weekly indicators, using 11 EMA. Chart attached, make your own judgements.




 Lol... yeah, that's been on my radar for awhile.


----------



## professor_frink (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Happy to do so BUT
> The XJO and XAO both showed weakness technically.
> While the US lined up 3 bourse weakness the local market certainly showed in their own charts. (I dont have the US charts at the office).
> Weakness continues as it has for some time.




ok then, I was under the impression from your earlier post that you were seeing weakness on one bourse and translating that to another. If there were things seen on our market, then it renders my earlier comments null and void.



Whiskers said:


> Gee, that's my favourite pass time tech. It sure gets the conversation going at times.




For once I actually agree with you Whiskers. Bottom picking dips in an uptrend is pretty well one of my standard trading methods! R:R can't be beat IMHO.


----------



## tech/a (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers 

That's an interesting count.
This is a Weekly count which I favour
See the tiny wave 5 projection right at the bottom of the page?
Under 3000.I cant imagine it going there either.
But I couldn't imagine the GFC.


----------



## Whiskers (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Whiskers
> 
> That's an interesting count.
> This is a Weekly count which I favour
> ...




My preferred count assumes the bottom is a 'C', and a Bull market turning and the last high a smaller degree 'iii' of '3'... but plan B suggests 'iii' may have actually been back before the congestion, and the little top where my corrent 'iii' is may be 'v'.

So in summary, my plan A has the correction about bottomed... BUT plan A(i)  has the 'v' and a little 'a' in, and a bit of a bounce and some more correction to come. I have swapped these around a couple of times since the only difference is one level of degree... a slightly bigger correction, but still uptrend.

But, my plan B pretty much goes along with your count. Best not to talk too alarmist for the moment until we see a sign of whether the movers and shakers do what they ought to do or do more of what they want to do.


----------



## tech/a (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wow

Based on wave 3 being approx 1.618 of wave 1 that makes Wave 3 at around 8305 or around a 3250 pt Bull Run.
Must check that GFC thing again!


----------



## sammy84 (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For what it's worth:

I will be going long if the US holds into the close. Our bounce of resistance on higher volume would suggest that *should* this be a correction in part of a larger up move, now is a good time to enter. 

I would've preferred had this been an A-B-C decline and as such will only be going half my position size.


----------



## Whiskers (24 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Wow
> 
> Based on wave 3 being approx 1.618 of wave 1 that makes Wave 3 at around 8305 or around a 3250 pt Bull Run.
> Must check that GFC thing again!




I took a bit of guidance from the US markets and some FA analysis, especially that they have made recent higher highs of late as we have faded.

I put that down to the currency/trade war the US has been waging with adverse effects on our export trade. I can't see the US keeping the war up for too long or even wanting it for too long because of the extra import costs it will impose on their import reliant economy.

I'm becoming more confident that the US has lost the fight on the USD for the time being and assuming they have all learnt something in recent years and are keeping a close eye on the ball, but let the market rule, we should see our terms of trade improve in the near future. 

In that scenerio, a larger degree wave 3 up for the XAO with a bit of gusto is my plan A. 

Whether that is a wave 3 or (c) up, doesn't worry me for the time being cos it will be a good trade with conformation, or not relatively soon. 

Anyway, I've put my money where my mouth is and picked up my first' bottom pick'  for this cycle today.


----------



## Broadway (25 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> For what it's worth:
> 
> I will be going long if the US holds into the close. Our bounce of resistance on higher volume would suggest that *should* this be a correction in part of a larger up move, now is a good time to enter.
> 
> I would've preferred had this been an A-B-C decline and as such will only be going half my position size.




Exactly. Ireland will sort it out, Kimmy will go back into hiding, FBI probe is now becoming old news. And we are in a bull market from the mid year lows.

Last 2 weeks have just been a correction in a bull market. The bears got lucky with a run of bad news.


----------



## tech/a (25 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Some critical support areas.


----------



## ginar (25 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Note lower swing highs and lows , trend is down . 4600 area support on daily . we have gone under and are now retesting from below . geometry and structure still bearish whilst circled reference swing highs aren’t breached , retrace from here giving a higher swing low would give bulls hope . once reference points are broken we re-evaluate analysis . markets are dynamic and so should our opinions be


----------



## Whiskers (26 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Probabily finish on a high here today or monday from the dubious projection of my 5m EW count into the daily time frame... before a correction, test of support next week.

Since we're all psyched out on candle formations this week, I'll tthrow in a more detailed candle stick analysis. 

That Hammer on the bottom of the daily chart having a quite long handle suggests sellers were at least temporairly defeated. The next Doji reflects some indecision and todays Shooting Star suggesting a little weakness, but tempered because it's sitting on only a minor bull run.


----------



## Whiskers (26 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ooops, was watching the XMM and XMJ for short term direction and took my eye off the damn XNJ ... until the bludy thing gave we a bit of a flesh wound in the foot : draging the XAO down a bit before rebounding on the close.

So, the shooting start on the daily is a tad more defined now, but the Three Black Crows on the Weekly are not as strong as they could have been, the third crow is a bit weak. 

Actually it was the Financials XAF that I don't normally watch closely, that dragged the XAO down most. The XAF weekly chart is almost a carbon copy of the XAO. Damn, those bludy financials spoiling the party again!

Albeit the last Black Crow is a bit tired, there is nothing in sight to shoo the bastards away and the daily chook  is getting quite a bit anxious about sticking it's neck out too far for fear of one of those Black Crows pinching more of their hard earned eggs... I guess the risk of a bit bigger attack on the farm eggs or at least the farm wallet if the Financials are getting a bit tight arsed, is still there until some one takes some decisive action to protect and support the farm chicken coop that lays the golden eggs... or the crows get flatterned by an Engulfing Bull or cared off by Three White Soldies, a Piercing Line through the heart or simply the sight of a decent (old fashioned head donging war) Hammer.


----------



## Whiskers (28 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is what I was expecting, eer hoping would happen... the AUD fall sooner than commodities, in particular mining, as reflected in the USD POG.

If both H&S's come off this time they both should correct between 5 to 7% leaving the Aus market about status quo in terms of net prices and ahead of the US who will suffer a disproportionate real drop in price and earnings, assuming the USDX rises more than commodities fall, thanks to a bit of worry with the PIIGS and North Korea.

That would leave us nicely on cue (after this little correction has settled out)  to catch up to the rate of increase of the US markets for a bit, till we see when they will correct and how much.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This stalling behaviour near support doesn't feel so good.  

The market won't bid anything up from here, it's just a matter of whether it will allow further falls past support.

The buying would have to be very strong across the board for XAO to start an upwards leg, and it can't happen from where it is now.  So it's more sideways action or down.

IMO.


----------



## Logique (30 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Agree GB I think the percentage play here is to plan for the next move being down.  It's much more pronounced in Europe and the US, but I can't see the XAO bucking the trend if these bourses show weakness.


----------



## tech/a (30 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Critical support is still holding so wouldnt go Duck hunting yet.


----------



## ginar (30 November 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Critical support is still holding so wouldnt go Duck hunting yet.




Yeah at the crossroads so nothing definative atm . we got GDP tommorow so i think we wait for that . lots of earnings dgrades lately so i wouldnt be surprised if that comes in below 0.5% consensus QoQ . AUD strength wont help either . anyway ill just follow price action regardless of numbers . Be cautious out there


----------



## Broadway (2 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Where'd all the bears go?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I still don't like the look of it broadway.  Seems like too weak a base to pile on 50-60 points like it has.  So I'm betting today's gains get eaten up this afternoon or tomorrow.  

But I'll be ready to flip if I'm wrong! :


----------



## Synergy (2 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I agree things are looking rather cheery all of a sudden, but there is some rising support we've moved up off.

Certainly not 100% convinced, but it doesn't look too bad either.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Make that 70+ points!

Currently very few trading opportunities seem to be appearing, meaning short term traders are also wanting confirmation.  Can't see any good breakouts apart from SAR. 

I reckon if 5 or more good set ups appear near close, that might be a good enough reason for me to feel differently.


----------



## Whiskers (2 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Synergy said:


> I agree things are looking rather cheery all of a sudden, but there is some rising support we've moved up off.
> 
> Certainly not 100% convinced, but it doesn't look too bad either.




Yeah, I'm a bit more comfortable this correction may be over. A couple of good Hammers there to bounce off support on the daily.

As noted earlier, that third Black Crow on the weekly looked a bit tired  ... and there is an Engulfing Bull there now immediatly countering and stomping all over it... and even if it corrects back a little tomorrow (less than half the previous week candle) it will still be a Piercing Line... I gues like a little bull giving a sharp prick of a new little horn... just to say lookout, I'm here and I'm fiesty  

Not definitive signs in there own right, but it correlates with better FA data from the US and growing evidence that the Aus economy is not growing as fast as the RAB anticipated and growing indications that they got that last rate rise wrong and won't increase again for a prolonged period.

Also that ther has been significant divergance in the performance of our markets since the GFC. I suggest the US had a vested interest in manipulating their market to get the best out of the sale of their floats of shares bought in the GFC, like GM. 

There has also been significant AUD divergance to the USD price of commodities, I think mainly as a result of the US trade/currency war as indicated earlier with the USD/EUR and the USDX charts giving signs of reversal some time ago, but countered (by US manipulation?) to increase that divergance further to unsustainable levels. That divergance is showing signs of weakening and as it does translates into better returns for our export, mining and associated industries in particular.


----------



## Synergy (2 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

4 perfect contact points on the 3 year logarithmic.


----------



## Sean K (2 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bouncing off the 4600 region looks very significant to me.


----------



## Boggo (4 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Bouncing off the 4600 region looks very significant to me.




I knew you were a closet EW experimenter kennas, you picked that W.4 just nicely.
You would now agree that around 5000 is a potential W.5 target projection 

(click to expand)


----------



## Broadway (7 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

US treasuries seem to be rising after the bad jobs number on friday night.
1225 in the ES was the high we reached before the europe crisis early this year.
Might provide some resistance to the markets.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

More Doldrums.  

DOW should restest recent highs, which are about 100 points above current levels.  So we may piggy back our way up a little further.


----------



## Whiskers (7 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes, it looks like we're set to tag along for a bit longer. 

The US has been busy on the domestic front making hay while the sun shines... pumping and dumping, err that is profiting by selling their bailout share holdings. The latest being their Citigroup stake for a $12B profit.


----------



## Logique (8 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Where'd all the bears go?



Just waiting for New Moon week to end Broadway. Referring to the first post in thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18301 Lunar cycles and market moves.
Yes it all seems a bit New Age, even flakey, but I don't discount anything that might give me an edge.

And the DJIA finished slightly down overnight, looking a little double-toppy to me on daily.

(BTW I'm naturally a Bull, but have been hoping for an XAO retracement leg).


----------



## tech/a (8 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Critical support is still holding.




This hasn't changed.
Market churning.
Boring


----------



## Broadway (8 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Things went bullish yesterday evening because of the Obama tax announcement, but i think this was an aboration, sentiment might have turned south.

This was seen in the xao/spi today.

I still think the bad US job numbers I mentioned yesterday are going to have an ongoing effect. 

Gold, silver, euro, oil and commodity currencies certainly had a steep fall last night, inverted to the usd rise, ofcourse.

We'll see if the bulls fight back.


----------



## Whiskers (8 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Things went bullish yesterday evening because of the Obama tax announcement, but i think this was an aboration, sentiment might have turned south.
> 
> This was seen in the xao/spi today.
> 
> ...




Yeah, I'm with you there. 

I think the USDX will define the markets for awhile, primiarily because I think the pressure is getting too great for it to remain too artifically low.

On the TA front that Engulfing Bull Candle did complete last week, albeit off a short down leg, it may be enough of a sign to get us past Xmas without any major drama... or until the US dispose of all their GFC stock holdings. Does anyone know how much they still hold?


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> I think the USDX will define the markets for awhile, primiarily because I think the pressure is getting too great for it to remain too artifically low.




LOL Whiskers. You're now a fully fledged risk trade proponent. I guess better late than never. 


Yes yes that was then this is now. !! context context.


----------



## Broadway (9 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks like the bulls did fight back off the US 3am lod.
Bulls are a confident bunch lately.


----------



## Sean K (9 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

5000 looks MASSIVE on this chart.

If it goes, have to really question the Mar 09 'not the bottom' low. 

Present economic fundamentals have us turning to toast in the next few years I think, so quite the conundrum.


----------



## Julia (9 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Present economic fundamentals have us turning to toast in the next few years I think, so quite the conundrum.



In saying this, are you meaning global or Australian fundamentals, Kennas?
The problems in Europe and the US are just being papered over imo.


----------



## nulla nulla (10 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Although the XAO is currently bouyant and appears to be testing the 5000 level, I believe we are developing a two tiered system, Resources and Non Resources and it is the Resources that are making the xao look better than it really is.
It may not be the best examples but a comparison of RIO and WBC shows the different directions the two tiers are trading atm, particularly since May this year.


----------



## malachii (10 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Although I think your point is valid -using WBC is a little false as it is just coming out of it's ex div phase.  Not saying your wrong - but maybe just that it is a little "over emphasized" with WBC.

malachii


----------



## jonojpsg (10 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



malachii said:


> Although I think your point is valid -using WBC is a little false as it is just coming out of it's ex div phase.  Not saying your wrong - but maybe just that it is a little "over emphasized" with WBC.
> 
> malachii




If you compare from May though, WBC is trending sideways/down whereas RIO is trending up...maybe worth putting resources index against financials index?


----------



## Whiskers (10 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



jonojpsg said:


> If you compare from May though, WBC is trending sideways/down whereas RIO is trending up...maybe worth putting resources index against financials index?




Yeah I agree, I think that's the main struggle that will shape the XAO. 





Trembling Hand said:


> LOL Whiskers. You're now a fully fledged risk trade proponent. I guess better late than never.
> 
> 
> Yes yes that was then this is now. !! context context.




Oh and :thankyou: TH.


----------



## jonojpsg (10 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Yeah I agree, I think that's the main struggle that will shape the XAO.




And while this thread may not be for FA discussion, I think the financials will continue to suffer from wariness of a housing correction given the increasing amount of coverage this possibility is getting in mainstream media...as well as Euro debt concerns


----------



## Broadway (10 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Isn't the xao/spi always a struggle between banks and miners. I mean, thats all we have really. Nothing else weighs in with any gravity.

Which is good in a way, because I only have to monitor volume on 6 stocks to get hints for spi entries.


----------



## nulla nulla (11 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



malachii said:


> Although I think your point is valid -using WBC is a little false as it is just coming out of it's ex div phase.  Not saying your wrong - but maybe just that it is a little "over emphasized" with WBC.
> 
> malachii




I chose wbc as it is reported to have the highest proportion of it's income derived from mortgages. Which makes it the bank with the highest exposure to the cost of financing those mortgages (using funds raised offshore) and the bank with the highest exposure to the downside effect of any property value corrections.
I could probably have posted a chart based on the overall movement of the finance sector to provide a more general comparison. Unfortunately there isn't an indice for "non-resources". If there were I suspect this would show the same gap as the rio v's wbc, as it would include the retailers which are currently in the doldrums.


----------



## nulla nulla (11 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Another aspect that we should be wary of over the next month is the "santa claus" rally. I have noticed in the past that the xao tends to go up on lower volumes of turnover in the last few weeks of December and the first 1-2 weeks of January, to be followed by a correction in mid January.

I used to put this down to the possibility the proffesional traders were on holidays at this time of the year and that the share prices snuck up on small retail turnover, end of year xmas optimisum, only to get corrected to market value when the proffesionals came back from holiday.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Crossroads.  Yellow line now the dominant factor.  Blue parallels still being respected.  Lead up only moderately strong, but I favour it to break out upwards.


----------



## tech/a (15 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Personally I changed into shorts as of yesterday on the SPI and Today on DAX and FTSE.
Still running fairly tight stops though.

As T/H pointed out HSI tanked in arvo session and Gold getting a belt.


----------



## Synergy (15 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XSO made a pretty strong move today and is now at a 2 year high.


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Synergy said:


> XSO made a pretty strong move today and is now at a 2 year high.




A little squiggly line I like to follow to see whats happening under the 6 Stock All Ords.

Best that can be said about this rise during December is that at least its not over brought! 

The closer story is more like a very select few are masking weakness in many.


----------



## nomore4s (15 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> A little squiggly line I like to follow to see whats happening under the 6 Stock All Ords.
> 
> Best that can be said about this rise during December is that at least its not over brought!
> 
> The closer story is more like a very select few are masking weakness in many.




My above 50% indicator is also showing the same thing TH, can't post it up atm though as the computer with that data is in the shop getting some minor repairs


----------



## nulla nulla (17 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Trading since July suggests we are moving upward in a bullish channel. However we seem to be stalling arround the 4850 mark and I wonder if todays outcome is not the first of one of T/A's "black crows".


----------



## Sean K (17 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> 5000 looks MASSIVE on this chart.






nulla nulla said:


> Trading since July suggests we are moving upward in a bullish channel. However we seem to be stalling arround the 4850 mark and I wonder if todays outcome is not the first of one of T/A's "black crows".




These two lines are converging.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

+15 today, followed by afternoon sell off?

Next week - start bearish phase.  

Just my 2c.

Upside feels extremely limited.  Downside starting to open up, but still limited.


----------



## lenny (23 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Have been exploring divergences lately, Looks like we have Type A bearish divergence on the XAO/XJO and a possible double top.








This might put a hold to the santa rally
Time will tell


----------



## tech/a (23 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not a divergence until the oscillator makes a lower top AND a lower low.
Divergences are at best a 50/50 proposition---in my opinion.


----------



## nomore4s (24 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> My above 50% indicator is also showing the same thing TH, can't post it up atm though as the computer with that data is in the shop getting some minor repairs




Chart with info as discussed.


----------



## Sean K (26 December 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nomore4s said:


> Chart with info as discussed.



That support zone indicates to me that we have seen the bottom and moving sideways at worst. I'm surprised that the markets have found a way out in the short term really. I expected another failure after it became obvious that the money printing with no real substantial change in mind set was established. Maybe the next crash will be so severe to cause the change.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

No 'January Effect' this year I'm afraid.   The big spec run happened in Nov/Dec.  That, plus everyone was gearing up for it with huge expectation.

Got some biomeds running - ADO, PRR.  Normally heralds the end of the run, yes?

Sell off in specs, big caps to trundle sideways.  SDL looks toppy to me.

My 2c.


----------



## nomore4s (5 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> That support zone indicates to me that we have seen the bottom and moving sideways at worst.




Tend to agree Kennas, think we will see some sideways trading for awhile but there are obviously a number of scenarios that are possible.


----------



## skc (5 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> No 'January Effect' this year I'm afraid.   The big spec run happened in Nov/Dec.  That, plus everyone was gearing up for it with huge expectation.
> 
> Got some biomeds running - ADO, PRR.  Normally heralds the end of the run, yes?
> 
> ...




What January effect are you referring to?

Change in XJO in January over last 10 years...on average it is down 1.46%. Certainly not good in the last 3 years.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

small ords. XSO.

-1.2% now, gathering a bit of pace.


----------



## satanoperca (5 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi, 

Dont necessary like it when I see bearish divergence appear on both daily and weekly charts on the xao as indicated by vertical line.






But is still trading within the channel on the weekly chart, so until then I will stay 80% long.



Cheers


----------



## tech/a (5 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I still think its floating in Na na land.
*Will change my mind if the regression channel is broken to the downside!!*

Weekly Elliott.

Click to expand


----------



## Sean K (5 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I still think its floating in Na na land.
> *Will change my mind if the regression channel is broken to the downside!!*
> 
> Weekly Elliott.



You're calling a W5 down from somewhere around here Tech?

That's a GET count by the looks, but you think that's most probable?


----------



## tech/a (5 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kenna's

Yes there is likely to be a wave 5 down at some point.
The count will alter if the high at the wave 4 pivot is taken out,
The Regression channel is very tight and been well respected so a break below would have me running for my shorts.
The depth of the retracement back towards wave 4 indicates to me that the correction is complex and wont be as clear cut as a clearly trending market. (In my opinion of course).


----------



## Sean K (5 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Kenna's
> 
> Yes there is likely to be a wave 5 down at some point.
> The count will alter if the high at the wave 4 pivot is taken out,
> ...



So most probable is that the May 'bottom' wasn't a bottom at all?

Maybe I'm mixing up the count there.

Personally, I've been expecting another big crash just on the general socioeconomic factors at play. Psychologically everyone has been hoping that the stimulus will get us all out of the mire. But, I don't think it will without some massive sacrifices by peoples around the world - the top 1% actually. And, they won't.


----------



## tech/a (5 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kennas

Personally I think the count is wrong.
I think its a more complex corrective pattern and a clear cut direction will be a while coming I think.

I Dont think we are going to see a chart which looks nice and conforming---to any opinion Bullish or Bearish.
While we will  "think" its clear--it probably wont be.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

All eyes now starting to turn to that support trendline, begun in March 2009.

It's been respected 4 times already which in my mind is an awful lot.  I just can't see it being bounced off a 5th time, not with sentiment the way it is at the moment.  

Looks like we are going to creep towards it, rather than drop.  If support fails, 4646 is the likely test point.

Amazing the lack of matching between the US markets and ours at the moment.


----------



## Broadway (7 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Amazing the lack of matching between the US markets and ours at the moment.




Im stunned by it. (rant coming)
Similar to this happened earlier last year in march, when europe crisis hit the world, ES making new highs around 1220 and spi just running parrallel with the eur straight down, while the ES was going up. Spi totally ignored the ES. In the end the ES came down with the spi and the eur.

But why the spi takes the widening european bond spread so seriously is beyond me.
Its on the other side of the planet, asian markets ignoring it, but we seem so linked to it. I guess its that and the floods that has people spooked, but days where copper and oil both are rising get ignored...
Imo, we should be up near 5500, theres nothing thats seriously wrong with us. I dont get the lack of performance in our markets. Good banks, good miners...whats the problem??


----------



## Logique (7 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> All eyes now starting to turn to that support trendline, begun in March 2009.
> It's been respected 4 times already which in my mind is an awful lot.  I just can't see it being bounced off a 5th time, not with sentiment the way it is at the moment.
> Looks like we are going to creep towards it, rather than drop.  If support fails, 4646 is the likely test point.
> Amazing the lack of matching between the US markets and ours at the moment.



Yes can relate to those thoughts GB. 

This is a great thread, thanks all contributors. Being honest, and after thinking about it at length, I have no clue about the future of the All Ords. 

Ask me to bet the house on it, I'd say a double-dip-ish 4400 range 4500 is entirely possible this year - bearish. But the medium to long term bias being upward - bullish.

2011 a year to stock and sector pick. 2012 probably a better year across the breadth of the Aust market.


----------



## ginar (9 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

interesting juncture here . with negative GDP likely who knows . the fact that last swing high is below previous is meaningful .


----------



## Edwood (10 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> I dont get the lack of performance in our markets. Good banks, good miners...whats the problem??




perhaps the interest rate rises haven taken the wind out of the market for Aus, and added strength to AUD meaning for those offshore, holding the ccy on its own is better (and more liquid) than holding the stock market given potential global risks


----------



## Whiskers (10 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yeah, I think you're right there Edwood. As I posted earlier I felt the RBA's premptive move to raise rates last November was too premptive. 

For the future, given the way those Black Crows on the weekly chart faded and the ensuring Engulfing Bull that set up for another Three Black Crows, but they faded into what looks like a pretty good 'Cup' (shown here on the daily) with the current little decline looking like a good handle, I suspect we might bust through 5,000 before the next significant correction.

The cup dept is about 1/3 of the previous rise, the handle is in that 1/3 area now on light volume and a rise of the dept of the cup sets up the break to a bit over 5,000.


----------



## Whiskers (10 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Yeah, I think you're right there Edwood. As I posted earlier I felt the RBA's premptive move to raise rates last November was too premptive.
> 
> For the future, given the way those Black Crows on the weekly chart faded and the ensuring Engulfing Bull that set up for *another Three Black Crows*, but they faded into what looks like a pretty good 'Cup' (shown here on the daily) with the current little decline looking like a good handle, I suspect we might bust through 5,000 before the next significant correction.
> 
> The cup dept is about 1/3 of the previous rise, the handle is in that 1/3 area now on light volume and a rise of the dept of the cup sets up the break to a bit over 5,000.




Ooops, of course that should have been Three White Soldiers. 

Nobody spotted it yet!... well I suppose that goes to show nobody understands my musings


----------



## ginar (11 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Yeah, I think you're right there Edwood. As I posted earlier I felt the RBA's premptive move to raise rates last November was too premptive.
> 
> For the future, given the way those Black Crows on the weekly chart faded and the ensuring Engulfing Bull that set up for another Three Black Crows, but they faded into what looks like a pretty good 'Cup' (shown here on the daily) with the current little decline looking like a good handle, I suspect we might bust through 5,000 before the next significant correction.
> 
> The cup dept is about 1/3 of the previous rise, the handle is in that 1/3 area now on light volume and a rise of the dept of the cup sets up the break to a bit over 5,000.





Hindsite is a 20/20 thing . the RBA are likely to keep rates on hold now as circumstances have changed . This flood disaster is going to have a huge affect on GDP . The reality is in the long term the RBA really have no choice but to keep raising rates imo . RBA owes money to fed , rates are rising for RBA . they lent the banks many billions . these rate rises will/ must be passed onto banks . its just a natural progression that these rates are passed onto consumer . Some of my friends in the bond market tell me we are far from the top of the interest rate cycle , what this means to the market really is of no major concern to me as my horizon is 6 weeks in the future at most but one thing i'll say is id be trying to minimize debt as much as possible if i had any . whilst many australians took advantage of the low rates on offer as consequence of GFC i immediately took strong actions to pay of any debt , the sad thing is this govt influenced push to more debt in a time of crisis caused by excessive debt is ironic in the extreme , they inflated the bubble further rather than letting some out . it will  be clear to all in hindsite the follies of these actions but at the moment mainstream australia is blind to the dangers at hand . there is a reason the banks are holding the market back , it will be clear in time . this is probably the wrong place for this but i dont know where else this fits on ASF . whilst i do follow fundementals and economics my primary decisions are based on price action and i suggest everyone does the same for this economic maze we exist in is as clear as mud . spose i better add a chart to justify this posts existance here

the major swing lows and highs are inconslusive atm but the next one likely sets the bias for the next year or so . trendline support still there but those lower swing highs have an ominous look .  the primary trend in this time frame is  murky at best


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

+52 Ords makes things a bit confusing.

Chart-wise, there's now a risk of an upside breakout from a large symmetrical triangle.  Only needs another +50 tomorrow.  

Sentiment-wise, I don't buy it.  Micro end of the market is totally unwilling.  I'll only flip into buy mode if we see arvo buying in this sector.

My experience of symmetrical triangles is that the longer the market waits to decide a breakout (up or down), the less powerful the move.  What's that mean - more sideways action?  A "nothing" breakout?


----------



## ginar (16 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

key juncture here , previous swing highs key . Trendline support and last swing low make up the other reference points short term . break above 4815 sees 5000 being a magnet . range extension from last swing low fits nicely .


----------



## tech/a (18 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Still pretty un eventful in my view.
Nothing showing.
Weekly Chart

Click to expand or wear Coke Bottle Glasses.


----------



## Sean K (18 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Still pretty un eventful in my view.
> Nothing showing.
> Weekly Chart
> 
> Click to expand or wear Coke Bottle Glasses.



Yeah, still in no man's land but I'm more bullish after the 4500-600 region held up recently. 

Multiple areas of resistance on the way up within this zone. 

Will be hard to break through that.

So, in conclusion, I have no idea...


----------



## ginar (19 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> key juncture here , previous swing highs key . Trendline support and last swing low make up the other reference points short term . break above 4815 sees 5000 being a magnet . range extension from last swing low fits nicely .




close above 4815 today so we are looking at a breakout , i like to get a couple closes above key for a confirmation


----------



## ginar (19 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> close above 4815 today so we are looking at a breakout , i like to get a couple closes above key for a confirmation




Just zooming out a little to see the next dynamic just above 5200


----------



## nomore4s (19 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just a gentle reminder to keep this thread about *analysis* of the XAO, general discussion about the XAO can go in the XAO banter thread.

Thank you


----------



## starman45 (24 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

still rebound from 4860


----------



## Boggo (29 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

A follow up to my post on 4th Dec...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=595604&viewfull=1#post595604

It hit the first W.5 target and stopped in in its tracks, a return to sub 4800 (4770) is now likely.

Just my 

(click to expand)


----------



## Whiskers (29 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> A follow up to my post on 4th Dec...
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=595604&viewfull=1#post595604
> 
> It hit the first W.5 target and stopped in in its tracks, a return to sub 4800 (4770) is now likely.
> ...




Although my cup (post #8546) is only modestly full, I'll drink to that. 



Whiskers said:


> The cup dept is about 1/3 of the previous rise, the handle is in that 1/3 area now on light volume and a rise of the dept of the cup sets up the break to a bit over 5,000.




But, I suspect this correction will bring on a more substantial wave 3 for us to catch up with the more heavily artificially stimulated US gains. This depends on my premise that the USD will appreciate quite a bit in the short to medium term now that their domestic economy is looking better and need to get some purchasing power back.

Chart period - 2 years (from bottom of GFC).


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I hesitate to post a long term chart of the XAO with a proven trendline, going back 20 years, (a monthly of the XAO)


----------



## ginar (29 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I hesitate to post a long term chart of the XAO with a proven trendline, going back 20 years, (a monthly of the XAO)





Over 20 years i dont see much relevance in a linear chart and i on the  time frame most here look at markets from i see zero relevance but thanks anyway


----------



## Boggo (30 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I hesitate to post a long term chart of the XAO with a proven trendline, going back 20 years, (a monthly of the XAO)




Nah, you need scary looking charts GG.

(click to expand)


----------



## nulla nulla (2 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The recent bullish run appears to be running out of puff. The market is drifting sideways and is in danger of breaking out of the lower channel marker. 
Recent activity (attributed to the unrest in Egypt and fears of the closure of the suez canal ?) indicates there is an element in the market looking for any excuse to withdraw their finances at the current level, for fear of being caught in any retrace of substance. Ironicaly it is their approach that could trigger a retrace.
Fortunately, the housing, employment and consumer confidence indicators are showing glimmers of improvement which continues to underpin the djia and hopefully will propel the xao to and above 5000 (just as a precautionary measure, pack a parachute).


----------



## starman45 (3 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Important are the conquest of 4910 and the consolidation of this area in order to go towards 4950ish.


----------



## starman45 (7 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Target hit and good close above resistance.


----------



## Sean K (9 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Still pretty un eventful in my view.
> Nothing showing.
> Weekly Chart
> 
> Click to expand or wear Coke Bottle Glasses.




Is your count in jeopardy if 5000 broached?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm just a chartist, but it looks like a downtrend, with no sign of consolidation or absence of sellers.

gg


----------



## drsmith (9 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> .......it looks like a downtrend.....



Your looking at it upside down.

Still, if China stumbles, it will change direction rather quick.


----------



## starman45 (10 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hit also 5000 (psychological level).
The momentum is slightly attenuated.
Uptrend.
Chart daily.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

xao


----------



## Sean K (10 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> xao



Can you do a four yearly with the horizontal as well?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Gets a bit small and hard to see kennas, but I agree there are a few touches on the horizontals of 5000 and 4900. Week periodicity shows it.

weekly.


----------



## Sean K (10 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Gets a bit small and hard to see kennas, but I agree there are a few touches on the horizontals of 5000 and 4900. Week periodicity shows it.
> 
> weekly.



On balance of probabilities this zone seems very important to me. If it goes through, then we may have seen the 'bottom' and the EW'ers have been generally wrong. If it fails and starts making some lower lows, then ouch. Still, this could be just another false attack at breaking the sideways zone and we continue in limbo for some time..

So, it could go up, or down, or sideways.

You can quote me on that!


----------



## barney (10 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> *So, it could go up, or down, or sideways.
> *
> You can quote me on that!





Lol .....  Way off the mark Kennas.  

It can only possibly go sideways, or down, or up!  Your analysis is obviously flawed:


----------



## ginar (16 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

daily and hourly


----------



## Sean K (16 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Still going no where until that zone of resistance is broken. Until then, it has potential to break significantly lower as the EW'ers are selling. Until we break up or down it seems that we are just in a holding pattern. If we have hit an EW W4 and go down then it's a very significant move according to the EW'ers. Like, back to the bottom, PLUS! Breaking up doesn't seem to be too bad a thing though.


----------



## skc (16 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Still going no where until that zone of resistance is broken. Until then, it has potential to break significantly lower as the EW'ers are selling. Until we break up or down it seems that we are just in a holding pattern. If we have hit an EW W4 and go down then it's a very significant move according to the EW'ers. Like, back to the bottom, PLUS! Breaking up doesn't seem to be too bad a thing though.




Interesting that the world markets are in 'dual speed' mode.

China, HK, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Brazil are all in pretty significant downtrends.

US and Europe are going one way North.

Australia's kind of caught in-between... somethings got to give.

Yeah, so I agree with the up, down or sideways analysis.


----------



## ginar (16 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Interesting that the world markets are in 'dual speed' mode.
> 
> China, HK, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Brazil are all in pretty significant downtrends.
> 
> ...





fence sitting the easy thing , looks overextended to me so i see the risk being long here myself  .  naturally regardless of probabilities the possibilities need to be managed . 

this wont help the bullish bias   ....   http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-puts-australias-big-four-banks-on-review-2011-02-16


----------



## Sean K (16 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> fence sitting the easy thing



Yep, when it's required. 

I don't see any reason to jump on a bull or a bear by the charts. 

Very happy on a fence.


----------



## nunthewiser (16 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Very happy on a fence.




while your pulling splinters out ya a$$ others view this level as a bewty for a low % loss area for some long overdue shorts ...... i pointed out an entry on BHP recently in million dollar thread....i also have others 
I also hold some longs but have no reason to let them go as yet either.

could be wrong , often am but me personally view this area as a doozy of a low risk area .....

but hey thats just me and i tend to nip things in the bud fairly quick if wrong rather than try and catch a speeding train once its going.( to *me* it makes stoploss levels a lil more murky.but hey thats just me)

each to there own


----------



## Sean K (16 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> while your pulling splinters out ya a$$ others view this level as a bewty for a low % loss area for some long overdue shorts



I wouldn't be long right now either, yes. 

Depends on your time frame too I suppose.

One man's short is another man's long.

I'm always long compared to you it seems.


----------



## nunthewiser (16 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'm always long compared to you it seems.




uh?

ahha gotya....yeah sorry m8 , it does seem my comments of late always seem to disagree with yours ...... take a bow, because at least i find 90% of your comments worth reading and hence me commenting ...... currently i have 77% of ASF members on ignore so hence the lack of ppl i argue with these days ......hahahah

lol i always figure everyone else is wrong anyways


----------



## ginar (18 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

just thinking out loud , range extension repetition , last one retraced to the 50 . the break of this weeks range is likely to set the bias for a week or so imo . im looking for an eod close break of range fwiw


----------



## tinhat (18 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> just thinking out loud , range extension repetition , last one retraced to the 50 . the break of this weeks range is likely to set the bias for a week or so imo . im looking for an eod close break of range fwiw




While you are thinking out loud... what does fwiw mean please?


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tinhat said:


> what does fwiw mean please?



*F*ollowed *w*ith *i*ntense *w*aving. :bekloppt:


----------



## tech/a (19 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*F*or _*W*_hat *I*ts *W*orth


----------



## ginar (19 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tinhat said:


> While you are thinking out loud... what does fwiw mean please?




some people seek answers , some people ask them

google is your friend


----------



## Logique (19 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I was struck by how similar the DJIA chart of the ten years from 1997 was so similar in shape and indicators to the XAO ten years from 2001, right down to the indicators. It really highlights how important an XAO break and hold above 5,000 has been. 

Also, the higher the DJIA powers above 12,000, the less the 'giant-head-and-shoulders' theory will be relevant.

So it's interesting times.  Long, staying long.


----------



## starman45 (20 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Only slight loss of momentum, imho.


----------



## ginar (21 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> just thinking out loud , range extension repetition , last one retraced to the 50 . the break of this weeks range is likely to set the bias for a week or so imo . im looking for an eod close break of range fwiw




closed outside the range today circled swing low key from here with last weeks high the upper key


----------



## tech/a (22 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Party's over.
Should be short indexes.
Europe not pretty.
Sell the retracements.

I expect this move to finish around 4500

Click to expand


----------



## Whiskers (22 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Party's over.
> Should be short indexes.
> Europe not pretty.
> Sell the retracements.
> ...




Yeah, this is closer to my mark from  a couple of pages earlier.



Whiskers said:


> The cup dept is about 1/3 of the previous rise, the handle is in that 1/3 area now on light volume and a rise of the dept of the cup sets up the break to a bit over 5,000.




Europe aside, if the middle east sorts itself out for democratic elections in the next few weeks or months, I can see the market getting excited about future prospects for growth and maybe even breaking of the oil cartel to set up the larger degree wave 3 that I'm looking for, that may go to record highs. I'll post a chart when I get more time.


----------



## ginar (22 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Party's over.
> Should be short indexes.
> Europe not pretty.
> Sell the retracements.
> ...




I got the invite a week ago , reckon this party half done . whilst 4500 isnt impossible i'll deal with the key levels as they occur , rarely are markets linear therefore my thinking is a little more dynamic than most


----------



## tech/a (22 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> I got the invite a week ago , reckon this party half done . whilst 4500 isnt impossible i'll deal with the key levels as they occur , rarely are markets linear therefore my thinking is a little more dynamic than most




Didn't say it was going straight there but nothing would surprise me particularly if the US comes off strongly.


----------



## ginar (23 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> closed outside the range today circled swing low key from here with last weeks high the upper key




structure developing a little faster than i thought it would , getting into key support levels here . pretty vertical move down , normally expect a pause/ snap back here . the easy money done , little harder from here


----------



## ginar (23 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> structure developing a little faster than i thought it would , getting into key support levels here . pretty vertical move down , normally expect a pause/ snap back here . the easy money done , little harder from here




zoom out for look at daily

i like to look for common ranges , had a couple 300-330 point retraces previously so if we lose the trendline support on daily the 4600 area becomes the next point of interest for me .


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Small ords down *less *than XAO today.  -20 vs -34.  Odd?  

We're back sitting right on that trend line again.  This is now the 6th touch.  Amazing. 

XAO still above SAR(.017,.017) which has been a reasonable guide historically.

Three days of red with successive higher volume hasn't been seen yet.  Again, this has been a reasonably useful guide historically for the start of bear runs.

XAO not following DJIA sell off with anywhere near the same ferocity.

Summary:  Obviously bearish, but mixed signals on our market.


----------



## Sean K (24 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Summary:  Obviously bearish, but mixed signals on our market.



Is it the more often support is tested the more likely that it will be broken?

Or is that some version of Gambler's Fallacy?

One thing that looks important is if that support is positively broken.


----------



## tech/a (24 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Small ords down *less *than XAO today.  -20 vs -34.  Odd?
> 
> We're back sitting right on that trend line again.  This is now the 6th touch.  Amazing.
> 
> ...





We are likely to see 3 waves in this down move this is A of ABC.
So its severity will be dependent on how far A goes down
The depth of B correction
as C will be around the length of A.


----------



## Sean K (24 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> We are likely to see 3 waves in this down move this is A of ABC.
> So its severity will be dependent on how far A goes down
> The depth of B correction
> as C will be around the length of A.



Is this linked to the last EW W5 projected top?


----------



## ginar (26 February 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> structure developing a little faster than i thought it would , getting into key support levels here . pretty vertical move down , normally expect a pause/ snap back here . the easy money done , little harder from here




got our pause /snapback , retraced 50 of move down , daily trendline support intact . for ongoing bearish bias wouldnt like to see it get above the 61.8  . one things certain volatility is back and as a trader its what i like to see


----------



## tech/a (2 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As expected


----------



## Whiskers (2 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Yeah, this is closer to my mark from  a couple of pages earlier.
> 
> 
> 
> Europe aside, if the middle east sorts itself out for democratic elections in the next few weeks or months, I can see the market getting excited about future prospects for growth and maybe even breaking of the oil cartel to set up the larger degree wave 3 that I'm looking for, that may go to record highs. *I'll post a chart when I get more time*.




Well, a 1.5% fall in the US overnight has the triger fingers loosed up a bit, but I still don't see a major crash. 

I'm still happy with my previous forcast with an intermediate wave 1 now complete and a wave 2 in progress before a larger degree wave 3 up kicks in. There is a fairly strong  support just above the 50% fib retracement which should hold.

It's interesting that precious metals gained over 2% in AUD and the AUD/USD fell about 1% and although other base metals were largely unmoved, I suspect the market will trend down further with maybe the exception of precious metal stocks.


----------



## ginar (5 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ok we have soaked up some time here and the time for explorative price action is here . havent been able to get significantly above the 50 of this move down . still holding trendline support but its looking shaky . 2 key refence levels circled on daily . if we break recent lows i can see the scenario on the 2 hour getting a chance to play out . an AB = CD looks pretty basic and doable , first couple days next week will set the trend imo . price action is king , be dynamic thinker as this market volatility will test both biases . references always key


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I've changed all my trend lines.  The old ones (yellow in top chart, blue in lower chart) are no longer being respected.  New ones in black are getting lots of touches (top chart).  Spec market still very strong.


----------



## tech/a (5 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Still as expected for me.
No reason to think that the original analysis indicating an end to this current up trend isn't still valid


----------



## Sean K (5 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Still as expected for me.
> No reason to think that the original analysis indicating an end to this current up trend isn't still valid






tech/a said:


> Party's over.
> Should be short indexes.
> Europe not pretty.
> Sell the retracements.
> ...



So, that was a bottom down there? I thought that was still a 3..


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not good.  

Parabolic SaR busted this afternoon.  Looking like at least a 50 point drop tomorrow.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (9 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Looking like at least a 50 point drop tomorrow.




The 50 point drop is based on?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Based on my charts, which I was too lazy to post up, sorry.  Lots of negative signs piling up together basically.

Any of the index traders tell me what happened just then at 11am???


----------



## skyQuake (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Not good.
> 
> Parabolic SaR busted this afternoon.  Looking like at least a 50 point drop tomorrow.




Do you use it on the XJO or SPI?

Persoanlly I find it a reverse indicator.

Low's in imo


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO.  XJO turned a day earlier but basically identical.

Longish periods.  .017, .017  It's just curve-fitted but there's no rules against that.


----------



## skc (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Not good.
> 
> Parabolic SaR busted this afternoon.  Looking like at least a 50 point drop tomorrow.




Turns out to be a pretty good guess...



skyQuake said:


> Do you use it on the XJO or SPI?
> 
> Persoanlly I find it a reverse indicator.
> 
> Low's in imo




Low for today or this week?

We've went down 2.5% with the US being flat. We are in trouble if the US plays catch up at some stage...


----------



## skyQuake (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Turns out to be a pretty good guess...
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Well i thought it was lunch but have to extend that to end of day 

Major sell portfolio in the mkt. Hitting everything and anything. 
Today should be weekly lows, although tomorrow morning gap down squeeze up is the play if US gets smashed tonight.


----------



## tech/a (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> As expected




Nothing has changed.


----------



## ginar (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> ok we have soaked up some time here and the time for explorative price action is here . havent been able to get significantly above the 50 of this move down . still holding trendline support but its looking shaky . 2 key refence levels circled on daily . if we break recent lows i can see the scenario on the 2 hour getting a chance to play out . an AB = CD looks pretty basic and doable , first couple days next week will set the trend imo . price action is king , be dynamic thinker as this market volatility will test both biases . references always key




theres the completion of ab = cd , some more of the easy money done . least i got some analysis ;-)


my daily range extension calls for move <4650 , see what develops


----------



## tech/a (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

You short SPI Ginar?


----------



## Sean K (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Still pretty un eventful in my view.
> Nothing showing.
> Weekly Chart
> 
> ...






tech/a said:


> Party's over.
> Should be short indexes.
> Europe not pretty.
> Sell the retracements.
> ...






tech/a said:


> Nothing has changed.



Which one hasn't changed Tech?

Forgive me, but aren't they two different counts resulting in potentially vastly different medium term outcomes?

I mean, if the March low was the 5, then this is a minor correction and we've seen a 1.

If the March low was a 3 and we've just seen a 4 that's a significant difference.

Is there any way to tell which it is, or will we only know after it's all unfolded?

Maybe I have the charts mixed up?


----------



## tech/a (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kenna's
Everything is panning out as shown.
The first chart eventually finished in a wave 5
The second was showing a change in sentiment--and thats where we are.


----------



## Sean K (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Kenna's
> Everything is panning out as shown.
> The first chart eventually finished in a wave 5
> The second was showing a change in sentiment--and thats where we are.



Sorry Tech, I thought the first chart finished in a very big 3 at the bottom. Indicating that the last top might have been a big 4 on the way to the last leg of this big correction, which has been a long time call from EW. 

I asked not longer after the potential March 09 'bottom' if it could be THE bottom, or if it was THE W4 EW was calling at the time.

You did at one point provide an alternate count with the March low as THE bottom. I'm not sure if you did that manually or with AGET.

Is that now off the table according to EW?

It's a rather interesting situation for me. Being a skeptic of the utility of EW but wanting to understand it, and how to apply it, this seems to be a very good test in the bigger picture.


----------



## tech/a (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Being a skeptic of the utility of EW but wanting to understand it, and how to apply it, this seems to be a very good test in the bigger picture.




I'm actually with you on this,the ONLY way I got my head around it was to understand and EXPECT wave counts to alter until they are confirmed.
This is the hardest thing to come to terms with as we all want to have a definitive answer.

I use it to see where we are in terms of maturity of a move.
When I see the same or very similar counts occurring in lots of stocks and other indexes sure as hell there is going to be a culmination.
That happened in 2007.Low in March and now.


----------



## Sean K (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I'm actually with you on this,the ONLY way I got my head around it was to understand and EXPECT wave counts to alter until they are confirmed.
> This is the hardest thing to come to terms with as we all want to have a definitive answer.
> 
> I use it to see where we are in terms of maturity of a move.
> ...



Cheers Tech, always love your posts and effort to share. Kennas


----------



## tech/a (10 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Kenna's

Just noticed the first chart is a weekly chart
The second a daily.

Now I can see your confusion.
Bit hard to tell which day it is!!!

Seriously though a daily and WEEKLY COUNT can differ at times.
The weekly is showing a final wave 5 move down which marries in with the end of a wave 5 move in the daily---both are looking at a move down.

The counts are not mine but AGET's.
They are not ideal but enough to suit my purpose.


----------



## ginar (11 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> theres the completion of ab = cd , some more of the easy money done . least i got some analysis ;-)
> 
> 
> my daily range extension calls for move <4650 , see what develops




clicked under 4650 tonight so we are getting to the point where another pause / snapback has potential . the range extension on daily in the right area . geopolitical events escalating  atm . crazy world getting crazier , price action is king


----------



## skyQuake (11 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

UP AND ATOM!

Interesting how SPI's only up 10pts since the open buy a lot of the miners have reversed hard


----------



## skc (11 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> UP AND ATOM!
> 
> Interesting how SPI's only up 10pts since the open buy a lot of the miners have reversed hard




Not the most convincing reversal... a 30 pt run up from the bottom and now retraced 2/3. My view is that US has really only fallen for 1 day and the chance of a follow through is definitely there.


----------



## skc (11 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> Not the most convincing reversal... a 30 pt run up from *the bottom *and now retraced 2/3. My view is that US has really only fallen for 1 day and the chance of a follow through is definitely there.




so that wasn't *the* bottom...


----------



## Broadway (11 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My opinion is a short term bottom somewhere nearby.
iym,xlb,uym,bdd,dbb,jjc,hg,qc are all metal related.
iwm, tna are small cap.
dba, gru, moo are agriculture related.

But ive been wrong before..


----------



## tech/a (12 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Dont think *Broadway* is too far off the mark--maybe a little early and interesting that you use analysis similar to mine re ---re occurring patterns in lots of stocks at the same time similar patterns are appearing in the index.

This has proven to be a very solid and accurate pre curser to larger turns in the market.
in 2007 they were all ending wave 5/5/of 5 patterns.




*CLICK TO EXPAND*


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I hesitate to post a long term chart of the XAO with a proven trendline, going back 20 years, (a monthly of the XAO)






ginar said:


> Over 20 years i dont see much relevance in a linear chart and i on the  time frame most here look at markets from i see zero relevance but thanks anyway






Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm just a chartist, but it looks like a downtrend, with no sign of consolidation or absence of sellers.
> 
> gg






kennas said:


> So, that was a bottom down there? I thought that was still a 3..




Another look at the long term chart for the XAO.

I am looking at a low of 3500, or lower for the XAO this year.

gg


----------



## ginar (12 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Another look at the long term chart for the XAO.
> 
> I am looking at a low of 3500, or lower for the XAO this year.
> 
> gg




id be happy with that


----------



## Boggo (13 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> -re occurring patterns in lots of stocks at the same time similar patterns are appearing in the index.




Agree, a lot of similiar patterns are prevalent at the moment.

First chart below indicated a possible high around 4960 between dates shown, actual top was on 17th Feb and over 5000.

The bottom chart highlights an area of confluence around 4500 between 7th April and 9th May.

Just my , make what you want of it 

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo (15 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> The bottom chart highlights an area of confluence around 4500 between 7th April and 9th May.




We seem to have arrived early and in style.
Where to from here, current area just above 4500 is significant imo.

Same theory by two applications below.

(click to expand)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The market has a lot to contend with at the moment as someone pointed out in the 'perfect storm' thread.

I'll be looking to see how it reacts if/when any positive international or domestic news is released.  Remember, when market sentiment is very poor, positive news creates very little buying pressure.  I expect this to be the case now.  That means that I probably won't be buying if Japan suddenly declares everything is safe.  Nor will I be likely to buy if the situation in Libya is settled.

I feel like a lot of time is needed for the market to resume an uptrend.  If that's the case, a heck of a lot of money will be flowing out of small caps, and not just U stocks.

Looking for trading ideas.  Nothing much is coming to mind.  Maybe the next run up will finally involve the alternative energy stocks.

Things likely to whipsaw with all this volatility, making charts a bit problematic right now IMO.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Dont think *Broadway* is too far off the mark--maybe a little early and interesting that you use analysis similar to mine re ---re occurring patterns in lots of stocks at the same time similar patterns are appearing in the index.
> 
> This has proven to be a very solid and accurate pre curser to larger turns in the market.
> in 2007 they were all ending wave 5/5/of 5 patterns.
> ...




I must admit to being an old fashioned chartist.

Many of you guys and gals are counting angels on pinheads.

This is a bear market, it's going down.

Any indicator you mention is predicated on price, volume and time.

It's going down.

End of story.

gg



Boggo said:


> We seem to have arrived early and in style.
> Where to from here, current area just above 4500 is significant imo.
> 
> Same theory by two applications below.
> ...


----------



## Boggo (16 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> This is a bear market, it's going down.




Agreed, we saw that coming back here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=613895&viewfull=1#post613895

and here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461&p=610417&viewfull=1#post610417

and here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461&p=614162&viewfull=1#post614162

Now we are trying to find where a bottom might eventuate, any contribution ?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

3500

Three thousand five hundred.

Give or take 2-300.

See my long term chart on this thread.

gg


----------



## panikhide (16 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Our market is up 1% today. BHP is up 2.5%. This I do not understand. Has the crisis suddenly been averted?


----------



## Whiskers (16 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



panikhide said:


> Our market is up 1% today. BHP is up 2.5%. This I do not understand. Has the crisis suddenly been averted?




I'd say the 'crisis' (in Japan) was over stated in the heat of the moment and a bit of sensational journalism.

The chance of a nuclear meltdown, explosion and widespread radiation is insignificant imo. I understand the explosions have been essentially hydrogen from the sea water used as emergency cooling, but the fuel rods are not significantly hot or the containment vessels significantly damaged to likely cause any long term problems. I think the safety mechanisms built into the system have worked fairly well and it's been more logistical issues than actual unreversable damage that is slowing the shutting down of the plants.

The main reason at the start of this correction seemed to be the midle east 'crisis'. That dissapeared from the headlines for the last few days, but is still happening.

The market was due for a correction anyway imo on fundamentals. World growth is widely forcast to slow in the next couple of years after pretty much recovering from the GFC and all the stimulus packages. In the end I expect the markets will see slower world growth especially the easing of fears of runaway inflation in China as a good thing for longer term world growth. This is where I see the Aus market outperforming the rest of the world via our resources.

I'm afraid my usual chart is not working atm so I've plotted my EW count on Bigcharts. I also note there are a lot of oversold TA signals.

If my prefered count is right, we are probably at or very near this bottom and will rebound into a wave iii of 3 which should be a decent push into new post GFC highs.


----------



## skyQuake (16 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



panikhide said:


> Our market is up 1% today. BHP is up 2.5%. This I do not understand. Has the crisis suddenly been averted?




Copper ran overnight. Freeport Morgan and other bhp peers ran.

Also bhp has a fairly high beta


----------



## tech/a (16 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit to being an old fashioned chartist.
> 
> Many of you guys and gals are counting angels on pinheads.
> 
> ...





Good call GP
Youve been a great help this week.


----------



## Chris45 (16 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=613895&viewfull=1#post613895
Another excellent call by The Master!:bier:



The Feb top is looking suspiciously like a ‘failed 5th wave’ double top.

Yesterday’s wave 3 is 262% of wave 1 and the computer says this is part of a downward sequence.

If so, the XAO should now retrace to 4715 – 4760, then wave 5 could extend down to 4100 (although 4500 seems more likely).

Alternatively, this could have been just a 1 month ABC correction in the upmove, but that seems unlikely since we’ve now gone below wave 1 and that’s not supposed to happen in the cash markets.

As always, I look forward to The Master’s next contribution to confirm or correct my own humble interpretation.


----------



## Sean K (16 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=613895&viewfull=1#post613895
> Another excellent call by The Master!:bier:



Good call so far. Market can't keep going down every day so there will be a bounce somewhere. Is this the short term bottom though? We wait and see.


----------



## Whiskers (18 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> If my prefered count is right, we are probably at or very near this bottom and will rebound into a wave iii of 3 which should be a decent push into new post GFC highs.




Ok, I'm happy to call the bottom in! 

I still can't see or forsee and FA reason why this is 3 waves on 5. 

Anyone willing to share their reasoning for going down, down, deeper down?


----------



## Synergy (18 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We've seen a 50% retrace in this move now, so I guess that is a positive sign for those long.

I still have concerns about those power generating things causing problems up north though. The media may be getting bored with them, but the problem probably won't go away in a hurry, and could get considerably worse. 

And then there's this:
'Military strikes on Libya within hours: France'

I hope the bottom is in, but not overly confident.


----------



## skc (19 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Forget about the power and nuclear issues. They don't really change things too much. Lybia and Bahrain are bigger problems because of the effect on oil price. Japan selling us bonds to pay for reconstruction and national debt is another possible cause for instability. But an even bigger potential problem is the fed pre-announcing that there is no plan to extend qe2. 

Difficult for me to feel fully bullish under these scenarios. 

But we are at very interesting point on the chart that's for sure.


----------



## nulla nulla (19 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I read through the week that a lot of investment money was being pulled out of the share markets and put into bonds following the escalation of the Nuclear Power station crisis.

The crisis is continuing to escalate. The xao fell through the support level of 4650 before it bounced. Is this a genuine bounce or will we drop further on more bad news?


----------



## tech/a (19 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Party's over.
> Should be short indexes.
> Europe not pretty.
> *Sell the retracements*.
> ...




If your long STILL Sell the retracements! (Sell out to minimize loss on UP DAYS at around 4700).
from here to 4711 I expect to see some Up followed by volatility which will see consolidation for sometime.
The low is in for a while but I personally wouldn't be holding a great deal O/N
This will now form wave 4 followed by a final wave 5 down. The deeper this move up goes the longer the wave 4/5 will take to develop.

Hit and Run team!
Short on the ups and long on the negative days towards the low.
Dont trade in the MIDDLE if the price isn't at an extreme 4477-4500 (Retracements for hit and run longs) or 4700 ish for short trade setups.
This will in my veiw give least risk setups.

Be patient

*Click to expand*


.


----------



## Noddy (19 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi Tech,

A question if I may -
From your attachment 41539, how did you calculate a drop to around 4550 level ?
Thanks in anticipation.


----------



## Boggo (19 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Giday tech/a
Something is not right with the vertical price tape on your chart above (assuming it is the XAO), the W.5 high should read 5032 on 17th Feb.

My wave 4 projections below, its met the minimum, likely area of resistance is around 4750 with a maximum area around 4800.

Just my 

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo (19 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> Giday tech/a
> Something is not right with the vertical price tape on your chart above (assuming it is the XAO), the W.5 high should read 5032 on 17th Feb.




Disregard tech/a, I just worked it out, your chart is the XJO


----------



## bbker (19 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This has probably been asked enough times, but how problematic is manipulation like algorithmic tradning to charting? 

I suppose normally there is a considered tolerance taken into account to minimise its effect, even if wide scale, but I understand it's almost negligible at this time as things are looking volatile.


----------



## tech/a (19 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bbker said:


> This has probably been asked enough times, but how problematic is manipulation like algorithmic tradning to charting?
> 
> I suppose normally there is a considered tolerance taken into account to minimise its effect, even if wide scale, but I understand it's almost negligible at this time as things are looking volatile.





Becoming more of a problem I believe with Currencies and the very liquid Futs.

*Noddy.*
Pretty easy The expensive software plotted a nice Purple and turquoise line right there.

Its also around 61.8% retracement of the whole up move from May last year.


----------



## lindsayf (20 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have been waiting for a nice weekly retrace to switch my super out of cash.  Im reading mixed views about this one.  I like the weekly pinbar that has printed off the 50/61 fib level and previous SR level but when I zoom out I dont really like how strong the resistance looks at 5000 and how strong the down move was.  So Im in 2 minds as to switch or sit...therefore I'll probably sit.


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks as though the 4700  ish analysis for this leg up 
may well play out.
looking to see if this gap on the SPI this morning holds.
I expect Europe and US to come off a little tonight.
There always seems to be an exhaustive move that preceeds price and we have seen a few lately.
My bias is now bearish from analysis.
4700+ would alter my view.


----------



## AlexG1 (22 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> *Noddy.*
> Pretty easy The expensive software plotted a nice Purple and turquoise line right there.




Which particular expensive software is it that you use tech/a if you don't mind sharing?

Thanks,
         Alex.


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



AlexG1 said:


> Which particular expensive software is it that you use tech/a if you don't mind sharing?
> 
> Thanks,
> Alex.




Advanced Get

http://www.esignal.com/advancedget/features.aspx


----------



## AlexG1 (22 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Advanced Get
> 
> http://www.esignal.com/advancedget/features.aspx




Eeek - that is expensive  Do you have any recommended reading that would help decide if such a system is for me or not?  I'm still educating myself.  I'd rather get up to some sort of understanding prior to embarking on any 30 day money back guarantee or the like.  But if I could see the ROI on the money.  I assume you have found the system useful for your trading?

My current position is really that I'd like to be able to combine value investing with better market timing.  I've noticed that I could greatly improve my returns if i was able to jump in and out of my preferred stocks at strategic points - so if such timing is possible then I'd like to partake in it.  Seems like it's one of the prime advantages of being a small investor as opposed to a monster fund, so I might as well try and take advantage of that.

Alex.


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I dont think you have to buy the software.
Just need to know the basics of wave structure.
You can then apply it to your analysis to get an "idea" where you are in the life of a move. Then application of your other analysis (In my case Volume and Price structure)
to complete the decision making process.

I think there is a lot of basic Elliott Wave info on that site I gave out.

Go through the PDF's here and grab what you want.

http://search.esignal.com/search?en...Signal&site=default_collection&q=Elliott+Wave


----------



## AlexG1 (22 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I dont think you have to buy the software.
> Just need to know the basics of wave structure.
> You can then apply it to your analysis to get an "idea" where you are in the life of a move. Then application of your other analysis (In my case Volume and Price structure)
> to complete the decision making process.
> ...




Thanks will do.

Alex.


----------



## Whiskers (22 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Looks as though the 4700 ish analysis for this leg up
> may well play out.
> looking to see if this gap on the SPI this morning holds.
> I expect Europe and US to come off a little tonight.
> ...




Agree, any weakness below 4700 this week would not bode well for a strong bullish recovery.

But, if this week ends above 4840, a nice morning star (Weekly Chart) I'm extremely bullish again. :bier:... I think I can feel it coming on now.


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Looks as though the 4700  ish analysis for this leg up
> may well play out.
> looking to see if this gap on the SPI this morning holds.
> I expect Europe and US to come off a little tonight.
> ...




Appears I was a day early!
Europe now showing signs of exhaustion in this latest move.
Above analysis now appears set.


----------



## sammy84 (24 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Appears I was a day early!
> Europe now showing signs of exhaustion in this latest move.
> Above analysis now appears set.




What does last nights strength in the US and todays in Aus do to your count tech?

I was short on a few stock in the US on the basis that the test of previous support would fail. They got stopped out last night. Markets are still showing some resiliance.


----------



## Boggo (24 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

W.4 retracement range is still valid Sammy, it just has to bounce around in there and then decide if it is going to continue to comply.

Parameters below based on W.1-W.3 and W.3 retracement.

What does the auto routine in AGET say tech/a ?

(click to expand)


----------



## mikeroxoz (24 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> My bias is now bearish from analysis.
> 4700+ would alter my view.




Hi Tech/a

I find all your posts most edumacating.

Is 4699.6 close enough to alter your view? Tomorrow's action will give us all an answer I presume.

Thanks for all the fish


----------



## tech/a (24 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



mikeroxoz said:


> Hi Tech/a
> 
> I find all your posts most edumacating.
> 
> ...


----------



## bbker (24 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

So where's the bottom, tech/a?


----------



## RazzaDazzla (24 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Tech,

What's the "40 PTI" and the two vertical black lines on your posted chart? Is this a fib time extension indicating where typical wave 4 should terminate?

Thanks,
Raz.


----------



## tech/a (24 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



bbker said:


> So where's the bottom, tech/a?




Of this move IF* it plays out as is currently expected* the first target of the final wave 5 *in this move* is 4,400-4,500 by around 20/4



RazzaDazzla said:


> Tech,
> 
> What's the "40 PTI" and the two vertical black lines on your posted chart? Is this a fib time extension indicating where typical wave 4 should terminate?
> 
> ...




Yes to the black lines
*PTI is the "Profit Taking Index"* a generated value by GET using a proprietary formula.(I cant see it) It only appears during a Wave 4 correction.

It is calculated by comparing the Buying and selling momentum in wave 3 to that in the current wave 4 creating a value---a value above 35 weighs the likely hood of a wave 5 higher than if below 35 commonly a double top or bottom occurs and not a higher or lower wave 5 termination. Just one of the many tools which comes with the software.

So the XJO is highly likely to go lower than the wave 3

PEN in another thread likely to go below  wave 3


----------



## Whiskers (26 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well the week ended a tad shy of 4840 to make a nice morning star on the Weekly Chart.

But with overseas markets positive overnight I'm still going on my FA that it's uptrend from here.

So instead of a wave 4 up I'm looking for a wave 2 down a tad but not a lower low.

Does Aget and (your's boggo) change count automatically if the break goes the other way?


----------



## Boggo (26 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Does Aget and (your's boggo) change count automatically if the break goes the other way?




It will change with a strong uptrend but there are a couple of hurdles still ahead.

Refer to first chart below for the points.

First (and next) point of interest is the low of what we are currently labelling W.1 at 4877, if it breaks above (and closes above) that then it eliminates the possibility of a five wave sequence.
Next sequence should it close above 4877 would be to call all of the last down leg a wave A and the current up leg to be a wave B.
For that to be valid this uptrend cannot close above 4931 which is the 0.786 retracement of wave A and the theoretical limit for a wave B.

There has been a larger degree picture in place since the last recent low (second pic below).
While this looks good and needs to be confirmed by a new high it is not a good looking W.2 without at least and ABC.

At some point it will provide the next piece of the jigsaw.

At the moment for me I have mixed feelings (like watching your mother in law going over a cliff in a new BMW  ) as I am long and doing OK on four stocks (ALK, BSE, LYC and PRR) and would like to see the market continue up while on the other hand I can say I told you so when it turns down !

I am an amateur at this stuff and consequently a second opinion on this is necessary especially when the parameters change.

(click to expand)


----------



## Whiskers (30 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm thinking it may go a tad higher before I get my little wave ii... if my minor count is correct, somewhere before 4977.9. 

My usual charting program is still broke, but this gives the idea.

I like the look of a wave iii on the MACD crossover.

It looks like the 5 wave down count is probably eliminated as a possibility eh?


----------



## Synergy (30 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Looks to have bounced off the rising trendline on the XAO and XJO today...

But from my fairly roughly drawn lines it's broken up into the parallel channel on the XJO. Positive signs?

Appears to be at a real crossroads here though. For me if it can break up above the lower trendline I'd be more confident that it wasn't about to head back down.


----------



## sammy84 (30 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm giving little weight to XAO analysis at present  The US markets have shown so much resilience that it has pretty much made analysing the XAO redundant. Trendlines, wave counts etc in the XAO mean little at the moment. Will be keeping my focus on the US. Upcoming resistance in the 1332-1344 area in the S&P500 which if reached will hopefully provide a clearer picture.


----------



## Sean K (30 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> I'm giving little weight to XAO analysis at present  The US markets have shown so much resilience that it has pretty much made analysing the XAO redundant. Trendlines, wave counts etc in the XAO mean little at the moment. Will be keeping my focus on the US. Upcoming resistance in the 1332-1344 area in the S&P500 which if reached will hopefully provide a clearer picture.



Huh? 

A chart is a chart.

Are you trading the S&P based on the XAO?


----------



## Whiskers (31 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Huh?
> 
> A chart is a chart.




Yeah, I reckon there is a distinct parallel. 

For me the US has got a bit ahead of us as we stumble with a bit of uncertainty with all these new tax arguements and slowing growth.

But I reckon both are just starting off wave 3 of* 3* at least and maybe of *5*

Line is S&P 500


----------



## tech/a (31 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Most have given a good idea of the new Elliott counts.
Here is GET's---


----------



## Chris45 (31 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Another possible double top scenario on anniversary of 2010 top.
(GET’s MOB is projected from Feb’s Primary pivot.)


----------



## sammy84 (31 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> Huh?
> 
> A chart is a chart.
> 
> Are you trading the S&P based on the XAO?




No the other way around. I'm trading the XAO based on the S&P. To be precise I'm seeking some confluence between the US and AUS before I will be decisively long or short. Since January the XAO has been showing several signs of weakness. US on the other hand has been trending nicely. Such a situation is just knocking me in and out of positions in Aus.


----------



## skc (31 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> No the other way around. I'm trading the XAO based on the S&P. To be precise I'm seeking some confluence between the US and AUS before I will be decisively long or short. Since January the XAO has been showing several signs of weakness. US on the other hand has been trending nicely. Such a situation is just knocking me in and out of positions in Aus.
> View attachment 42190




If that is your view you should just long Australian index and short S&P500...

It is perfectly ok for XAO to not follow S&P500. Afterall our reserve bank is being quite responsible with the monetary policies (whether they are effective is another debate).


----------



## sammy84 (31 March 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skc said:


> If that is your view you should just long Australian index and short S&P500...
> 
> It is perfectly ok for XAO to not follow S&P500. Afterall our reserve bank is being quite responsible with the monetary policies (whether they are effective is another debate).




Agreed it's ok for the two indexes not to mirror. Just when there is little confluence in can make short term trading frustrating. My systems in the US is going fine, AUS I'm just getting whipsawed however.


----------



## Synergy (1 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO now moved up above both rising supports.

Do these hold any weight? Will they act as resistance going forward?

Interesting that it has broken upwards where the two trend lines cross...
10 of the last 11 days have been green now. Quite a run we've had.


----------



## Sean K (6 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Synergy said:


> XAO now moved up above both rising supports.
> 
> Do these hold any weight? Will they act as resistance going forward?
> 
> ...



Good question for EW I think.

All the signs were that this was a larger leg down. 

Does this represent a change in the count and we have really seen the 'bottom' or something more complex?


----------



## tech/a (7 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nothing has altered as yet.
Still long but topping.




Very nearly smack in the resistance zone.

I dont like the GET count.


----------



## Whiskers (7 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> I dont like the GET count.




Me neither. 

I'm more confortable for a bullish count. The morning star didn't quite make it, but Three White Soldiers are having a good go on the weekly chart.


----------



## Sean K (8 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

24 Mar


tech/a said:


> View attachment 42042




31 Mar


tech/a said:


> View attachment 42176




Tech, this seems to be a very fluid program. The difference between that being an 12345 to an ABC is huge. 

How do you trade that situation?

Just stay out until other factors provide a trigger, or just keep stops tight?


----------



## skyQuake (8 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> 24 Mar
> 
> 
> 31 Mar
> ...




Other factors like sayyy a 7.4 quake off japan again?


----------



## tech/a (8 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> 24 Mar
> 
> 
> 31 Mar
> ...




GET uses a mathematical algorithm to do counts so it will force a count to "Fit" its algorithm.
Corrective counts can become very complex--which is obvious here.
It still doesn't alter the fact that price is coming into 2 areas of past resistance.

The first at 4950 and over to the left another at 5025 is.
It will take quite some effort to push through these.
While it certainly has been belting along since the Japan tsunami it now faces a point of decision.

How do I play it?

All you can do is do what you always do that works for your trading.
For me thats constant portfolio management and hedging any weakness with index futures.To me its a warning that things are going to be harder on the long side.
So Ill be locking in profit and tightening stops,taking smaller parcel sizes and pulling back on my portfolio number---if there is going to be a pullback I wish to minimize damage and keep as much capital intact for opportunity later or on the short side.




I'm not taking myself out of the game on the long side but I am eying the risk side of being long---hard.


----------



## Boggo (8 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Just waiting for the next piece of the jigsaw at the moment.

We could be looking at a double top or one of two EW scenarios.

Charts below are weekly.

First chart is a zoom in on where we are at just now, possible double top area of resistance.

Second chart expands a bit on that and introduces another line of resistance at 5130.
A break above that would be significant as its likely that we have had an ABC correction.

The third chart is a possible current state should the 5130 be broken, we may be in a new upward wave 3 heading into 6000.

Until something gives we are just guessing which way is next and all of the above and below is based on my amateur  worth.

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a (9 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This is an XJO chart---apologies.
 But it is significant.


----------



## Muschu (10 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> This is an XJO chart---apologies.
> But it is significant.
> View attachment 42335




I rarely read this thread as the analysis is often beyond me.  But I have learned to respect the views of several analysts Tech -- you included.

I am trying to read what you have not written... Is it the case that you are saying we may now be "ripe" for a downturn?  Sorry for the naivety of the question.

Regards

Rick


----------



## tech/a (12 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Muschu said:


> I rarely read this thread as the analysis is often beyond me.  But I have learned to respect the views of several analysts Tech -- you included.
> 
> I am trying to read what you have not written... Is it the case that you are saying we may now be "ripe" for a downturn?  Sorry for the naivety of the question.
> 
> ...




Well so far today its a resounding yes.

Let me tell you that even taking evasive action today has bitten hard!!


----------



## tech/a (12 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Also note that Frank nailed it as he often does.


----------



## Muschu (12 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Also note that Frank nailed it as he often does.




Not familiar with Frank's posts but will check.  Taking evasive action here by going out!


----------



## RazzaDazzla (12 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Where to from here tech? Back down to recent lows (some type of flat pattern) or a small breather and higher highs?


----------



## tech/a (13 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Where to from here tech? Back down to recent lows (some type of flat pattern) or a small breather and higher highs?




I liken bullish moves to a train--if you want to pull it up its going to take a while.
Bearish moves are like dropping a ball on concrete---the higher and quicker it falls the bigger the bounce.

This reversal deep and quick has me think its sending a message of weakness.
There will be a bounce and its strength will tell a lot. I expect that if new highs are made it will be like extracting blood from a stone!

So my plan is to look for short opportunities on indexes and wait for signs of corrective patterns in the now much lighter portfolio.
In this fickle corrective pattern trends will be short.So my time frame also shortens more than usual as does my risk down to .25 and .5% (Portfolio long plays)

*WEEKLY XJO CHART* click to expand

*

*


----------



## Whiskers (19 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

What do people think about MA's based on Fibonacci nos?

I'm noticing the 76/78 MA seems to be a pretty good medium term trend indicator.

That being the case it suggests we're testing momentum support around now. If the Bull is to continue it likely won't go much lower than this before charging up again.


----------



## joea (19 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well I use fibonacci numbers. 55 and 89 are Fibbo numbers. I do not know where you got your average from.
I use 13 on indicators, and 34 wma to trade on. 144 or 189 to look at trend direction.
Traders use 150 or 200 . oh. well!!!!
Fibonacci Trading is an ok book. Prices should be good at fishpond.
Cheers


----------



## tech/a (19 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> What do people think about MA's based on Fibonacci nos?
> 
> I'm noticing the 76/78 MA seems to be a pretty good medium term trend indicator.
> 
> That being the case it suggests we're testing momentum support around now. If the Bull is to continue it likely won't go much lower than this before charging up again.





Curve fitting.



> I liken bullish moves to a train--if you want to pull it up its going to take a while.
> Bearish moves are like dropping a ball on concrete---the higher and quicker it falls the bigger the bounce.




Last night ball on concrete tonight---bounce---not that hard is it?


----------



## Synergy (19 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Not sure about where we are at the moment. I feel things could go either way from here. Below 4800 and things would certainly look shaky though.

Things look very similar to exactly 1 year ago, but I feel that the recent low is quite strong - I like those high volume turning points.


----------



## Whiskers (19 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



joea said:


> Well I use fibonacci numbers. 55 and 89 are Fibbo numbers. I do not know where you got your average from.
> I use 13 on indicators, and 34 wma to trade on. 144 or 189 to look at trend direction.
> Traders use 150 or 200 . oh. well!!!!
> Fibonacci Trading is an ok book. Prices should be good at fishpond.
> Cheers




I hadn't thought about it much before today and just started looking at the fib retracement numbers as a MA. I remember seeing a program once where the selected fibo retracement numbers displayed as continuous lines with the candles/bars... appearing like a multi level bollinger band. I used it for awhile on forex and rather liked it.

But, I'm open to any ideas and thoughts.

I just took 76.4 and 78.6 from a fibo retracement program. Didn't check them, although I believe 50% isn't strictly a fibo number but is often used as/like one.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (20 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Last night ball on concrete tonight---bounce---not that hard is it?




Just had a glance at the Jun SPI chart. That ball must have been a bouncy ball!

So; Was the recent down a correction and up from here to new highs? Or are we now correcting and down further.


----------



## tech/a (20 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



RazzaDazzla said:


> Just had a glance at the Jun SPI chart. That ball must have been a bouncy ball!
> 
> So; Was the recent down a correction and up from here to new highs? Or are we now correcting and down further.




Already posted thoughts here. Dont want to post it twice.
I expect a test of this low before finishing the wave count.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22194&page=7


----------



## Whiskers (21 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Curve fitting.




Maybe, but it fits pretty well. 

But then again, what MA's aren't curve fitting or curve following?

With the rationale of fibonacci and the various variations of 'magic numbers' that seemingly occur regularly in nature, it seems logical that apart from fibonacci as a pure retracement, it may be more accurate/relevant related to the MA or EMA based on same. 

On that note I'm tending to think an EMA may be more relevant.



> Last night ball on concrete tonight---bounce---not that hard is it?




...or the train just passed through a bit of a valley and got a head of steam up again?

The daily 62 EMA (based on the often used important 61.8 fibonacci) is not much diferent to the earlier 78 SMA at this point in the daily chart (bottom)... likely chance of a bounce off the curve (trend) line.

The weekly 62 EMA on the weekly (top) seems consistent with the notion that smaller degree corrections aught to bounce off the daily trend line.

I note also that the weekly is still showing a bit of MACD divergance... but if this is a wave _iii_ of iii of 3 forming, then this should be about when the MACD should start looking up.


----------



## motorway (21 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Whiskers Fibonacci is an interesting topic..
But 1.618 and .618 etc are ratios

They relate to  exponential growth 

The sequence  1 3 5 8 13 21 ... converges to the ratio 1.618 as the numbers get larger

You can start the sequence with any numbers

People do use 21 and  8 as periods for a moving average
or they might use  13 and  55 etc 

Here is where your data fitting
a 62 EMA is a different period WMA SMA etc
you can make any moving average = a 62 ema by changing the method of calculation

So what makes this one the Fibonacci one ?

If you have two averages of the same type .. THEN you can draw them in a ratio of 1.618...  If you think that is important..

If you are using just one moving average then your seed moving average is a 1 day moving average so you need to use the actual "numbers" 3 5 8 13 etc

 You can do all that IF you think it is important


Is exponential Growth ( and decay ) a KEY to understanding markets
Yes I think it is...

IS the particular growth rate of 61.8% == I doubt it.
It is just one example of a growth rate..

Why is not 100% more important ?
Most people think in terms of how long to double something or halve ?





Motorway


----------



## Whiskers (21 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Good food for thought motorway.

I'll mull over it over easter sometime, maybe, between drinking and eating and all sorts of other things... and see if I can find some MOVING criteria of (and maybe peculiar to) a market indicie that has some strong correlation with fibonacci (other than EW). 

Btw, how's the P&F analysis looking? Any key points in the picture there?


----------



## motorway (25 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Good food for thought motorway.
> 
> Btw, how's the P&F analysis looking? Any key points in the picture there?




Whiskers start with  0 0 1 1 and add  all the numbers left of the last one.

 0 0 1 1 2 , then add all of those left of the last one (2) again  0 0 1 2 4 then to infinity.. 

0 0 1 2 4 8 16 32 ....

Fibbonacci is a part of the set of such "logarithmic sequences" Where you add only the last number to the left ( instead of the , last 2 3 4 5 100 1,000,000 or as in the sequence above where ALL are added.. )

Why are these sequences important ? NATURE BUILDS WITH THEM and MINDS THINK in TERMS of THEM..

*  Every situation in which the growth-rate of a quantity is proportional and directly related to its present level is described by such a sequence. *

In fact to think in terms of linear scales is in _a away_  unnatural.

So here are two charts..

They move in stair step patterns Because Whereto is Proportional to Wherenow
and The scale is as defined above "natural" it does not need a Fibonacci Overlay..

Also include an earlier period to compare

The probability I see is more likely a move to test the pre GFC Highs
The move down did not follow through and the move up has strongly at present been negated ..

This is a very logical "Halfway point''  Where a significant line across the ~ 4670 has formed .. ( Think of a stair step )

As Tech/A would say with his EW .. Where in the life cycle of the trend are we ?

Also ..Just take what unfolds... Plenty of reference points to get ones bearings


45 degree lines -->
*  Every situation in which the growth-rate of a quantity is proportional and directly related to its present level is described by such a sequence= LINE. *

Key levels of support and resistance ... 

activity in reference to that 4670 area etc

Trends congest ,,, and congestion gives was to trends..

Motorway


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I found Wed-Fri's conditions very difficult for trading.  Hardest for quite some time.  Anyone else?  All my trades lost money.


----------



## ginar (30 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

channel broke early march , made lower swing low and then a slightly higher swing high ( double top ?? )   fridays candle on 24 cash looks bullish with that long lower shadow . that easter swing high key reference early next week . RBA on tuesday be pivotal after last weeks high CPI . certainly selling pressure coming in 4950 area . daily close under 4800 and ill be looking for the 50 of the major swing at 4650ish . reference levels this week 4800 and 4935 for mine


----------



## ginar (30 April 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

2 hourly cash 200


----------



## Logique (1 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



motorway said:


> ...The probability I see is more likely a move to test the pre GFC Highs
> The move down did not follow through and the move up has strongly at present been negated ..
> This is a very logical "Halfway point''  Where a significant line across the ~ 4670 has formed .. ( Think of a stair step)...



Impressive analysis, and it's how I had set myself in this market. Been caught being overly bearish too many times in this run, which does seem to be pausing. Watching developments closely however.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's very hard to draw meaningful trend lines on the current pattern in the Ords.

The other thing is, sentiment is really very poor, in my estimation.

When sentiment is strong in one direction or the other, that's when a Heiken Ashi chart is a good way to find real turning points and avoid getting whipsawed with false ones.  I have a feeling there might be a few to come.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

At +48, the Heineken-Asahi (hic) is white.... just.  No point re-posting it.


----------



## Boggo (9 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Still no direction at today's close of 4831.7, needed a close above Friday's high to hint at its next move.
Nice target area around 5100 just waiting ?

(click to expand)


----------



## ginar (9 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

structure with lower high and lower low swings favours more downside imo . 4800 and 4690 reference points for me from here  , market looking towards GDP in coming weeks .


----------



## ginar (9 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> structure with lower high and lower low swings favours more downside imo . 4800 and 4690 reference points for me from here  , market looking towards GDP in coming weeks .




forgot the chart


----------



## nulla nulla (10 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> structure with lower high and lower low swings favours more downside imo . 4800 and 4690 reference points for me from here  , market looking towards GDP in coming weeks .




The bulls tried to push it up but the bears held it in check. If it can't jump from the 4800 level I see it testing 4650 (and possibly lower). With all the sovereign debt issues bubbling back to the service I see Finance stocks dragging it down unless there is a real rally in resources.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Theoretically the XAO chart should tell us what sort of news we're going to hear from china in the next few days.  So rather than wait for china to tell us their news on inflation, I say our market _already knows,_ (though not in a literal sense of course).  The XAO chart is saying china's news will be mildly negative, so we will get a sell off of 50-100 points.  NBy the time the news is announced the market will have moved...right?  Better to preempt it?


----------



## tech/a (10 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Latest Advanced GET for those interested.


----------



## ginar (12 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> structure with lower high and lower low swings favours more downside imo . 4800 and 4690 reference points for me from here  , market looking towards GDP in coming weeks .




and havent those reference points been in play  . with another lower high confirmed it almost just seems academic for the next lower low to be made in coming days . previous swing low providing the reference level at the moment but its certainly under fire after the pretty meagre uptick to last swing high , didnt even make the 50 . id be very surprised if this 4690 level holds . i got 4630 pegged this week for starters with march lows being the magnet after that . GDP going to be crap and the market knows it ....................


----------



## nulla nulla (14 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The 4800 support level proved to be little or no support with the xao closing out the week at 4787. The bears pushed it lower to 4757 during the day but it was able to recover 30 points before close.

The next support level is 4675. Fasten you seatbelts everyone, we are flying through some turbulence at the moment and our direction is less certain.


----------



## Sean K (14 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> The 4800 support level proved to be little or no support with the xao closing out the week at 4787. The bears pushed it lower to 4757 during the day but it was able to recover 30 points before close.
> 
> The next support level is 4675. Fasten you seatbelts everyone, we are flying through some turbulence at the moment and our direction is less certain.



I'm not sure if it's completely broken yet. Yesterdays recovery was pretty good. However, if 4800 is tested and fails, probably yes. Could be setting up for a decent inverse head and shoulders too. Keep an eye on that.


----------



## ginar (15 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> I'm not sure if it's completely broken yet. Yesterdays recovery was pretty good. However, if 4800 is tested and fails, probably yes. Could be setting up for a decent inverse head and shoulders too. Keep an eye on that.




reckon the probability of holding fridays close is remote and head and shoulders is a shampoo


----------



## Synergy (16 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Very symmetrical 5 waves down on the XAO.

I'm certainly a novice waver... but it looks like being close to being finished if things play out to give a neat 5 waves. The down waves are parallel currently, we'd need to continue falling quickly to maintain that. Also interesting that the volume is much lower compared to the March low. 

Possibly of little concern but the XSO is sitting right on support.


----------



## nulla nulla (16 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Down another 60 today and I can't see anything joyful going on in the world of finance that would encourage me to believe there is a prospect of a bounce before 4650. Hope i'm wrong.

If the xao can't hold 4650 then it's a case of strap on a life preserver and take to the life boats. The ship is sinking.


----------



## IFocus (16 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Certainly moving on down and price is king but not a lot of volume seems lack of buying rather than fund managers rushing for the door not to say things wont pick up

.


----------



## ginar (26 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

daily and 60m . bounce on 60m  would not surprise at all with range repetition albeit taking a lot longer (less momentum) . 4687  reference level upside short term with yest low key dside . on daily it looks a little shakey with march swing low the key from here . with lower low and higher high the bias is in the balance


----------



## nulla nulla (27 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The xao bounced from just above the lower trend line. Driven by strong gains in the financial sector plus the major miners, the xao added 72 points helping reverse earlier falls.

Little has changed on the international markets regarding sovereign debt. The perspective of an impending Australian housing bubble set to burst, still hangs over our mortgage market which relies on overseas markets for about 40% of funding. 

It is still possible the shorters will try and push the market down until we have the housing market collapse they are prediciting but I suspect they don't have a lot of room to move from here. Bargain hunters obviously jumped in over the last few days to buy up anything being pushed into the market.


----------



## Sean K (27 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Latest Advanced GET for those interested.
> 
> View attachment 42857



'Advanced GET - EW' called an ABC correction to W4 with a bounce to 5100 W5 by mid May back here. 

Updated EW count to see where we have been? 

(Disregarding any chart movements that do not fit the curve of course)


----------



## IFocus (27 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Moving down in a channel of sorts no volume to indicate shorts being squeezed yet also not the sort of move down that I would think to many shorts would get set

Interesting the current market mood all the same

.


----------



## Boggo (27 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> 'Advanced GET - EW' called an ABC correction to W4 with a bounce to 5100 W5 by mid May back here.




you may have missed this bit kenas... (enclosed in red, and it was taken out)


----------



## nunthewiser (28 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

lol

i must thank some here for the excellent commentary they provide.

pity one cant trade commentary

as you were


----------



## Wysiwyg (28 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nunthewiser said:


> lol
> 
> i must thank some here for the excellent commentary they provide.
> 
> ...



One wonders what one can trade then? Maybe a chart (at least one LOL) of something remotely resembling XAO technical analysis.


----------



## Sean K (30 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> you may have missed this bit kenas... (enclosed in red, and it was taken out)



Yep, I missed 'expecting some positive price action from here' also.


----------



## ginar (31 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

looking at key levels about now . this move up equals the best retrace since begining april . bias on 60 m got the swing high/low for reference now .


----------



## ginar (31 May 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

daily not a lot changed since last chart . GDP tommorow , its what weve been waiting for , looks priced so maybe no dside left from here on daily


----------



## ginar (3 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> looking at key levels about now . this move up equals the best retrace since begining april . bias on 60 m got the swing high/low for reference now .




testing lows on daily and looking to channel support , march lows seem so close they need to be tested . NFP in US is a pivotal release and may well set the trend for weeks to come . many cycle gurus use NFP as turn dates


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Long term chart.  1987 to present day.  Thinking the yellow line might be about right.  Sits at 4200.


----------



## sammy84 (7 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Type C bullish divergence, we're at support, good close of the lows today on increased volume. What's more June is typically a good month when considering seasonality.



Have to trade what I see so I have put a pending long order on one stock. Nevertheless, I have that sinking feeling like I imagine many have others have as well so I have halved my risk. 

Will pull my order is Dow Jones breaks 12093 overnight.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Feelings are hundreds of times more reliable, accurate and immediate than logic.  The 'sinking feeling' should be what drives your decisions, sammy.  

So long as a trader has a positive mindset regarding his trading, a sentiment approach to decision making is far, far superior to both TA and FA.  However, if he lacks this core attitude of positivity, well nothing will work anyway, not sentiment, not TA nor FA.  Nuthin' will work, no matter how sophisticated.

edit: if a trader has a poor mindset, then what _feels _right will be wrong and vice versa.  See?


----------



## grandia3 (7 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well at least the Dow, NASDAQ, FTSE and NIKKEI are green at the moment


----------



## ginar (10 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

not a lot changed in a week with volatility taking a holiday , break on last weeks range key from here , swing low at 4505 and 4590 key referenece from here on hourly


----------



## blue0810 (11 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I love this Thread. I can see  the market it likes coles Ad  goes down and  will
stay down.


----------



## grandia3 (13 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fe...h/marketpulse (MarketWatch.com - MarketPulse)

It will fall even lower if the US decides to really end the QE2, fasten your seatbelt


----------



## sammy84 (16 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sounding like a broken record here but still positioning for a bounce around the corner. Type A bullish (previously type C) divergence is now forming:




Also 10 day adv/decline is showing bullish divergence, however, this is just holding up.




Unfortunately I'm not seeing any confluence of patterns with individual stocks in the market. Therefore I haven't got any pending conditional orders. A rejection of weakness from here would provide me with a few set-ups.

No advocating that we are going to get a great bounce, but I would be looking for a move make up 4790 to then look for weakness to set in again. Market is too oversold to short from here.

Well that's my game plan for the following weeks


----------



## sammy84 (17 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

NASDAQ bounced nicely off support (will post a chart when I get home). If today holds I'll be scanning for long set ups tonight.


----------



## IFocus (17 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO has seen some volume flow in but sellers remain in control. With a couple of closes below the last buying area further down side still looks to me a more likely outcome near term

.


----------



## ginar (18 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

measured moves , rinse and repeat .  range repettion brings us down near 4370 , buyers just on holidays atm . march lows finally hit and definate key support from here . 

On daily we have lost channel support so that still looks bleak . daily support aligns with the hourly range so im liking that for swing low potential on daily . we got opex this week and that pivot into that wont surprise .


----------



## sammy84 (21 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

10 day advance decline still pointing to a bounce. Had a few pending pending long orders. If US fails to hold overnight then I will switch and enter a pending short. If a bounce can't materialise from here, we might need to wait until 4353.


----------



## ginar (27 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Getting close to a 3 month grind down now with volatility slowly dissappearing . I think we need a decent flush (exhaustion) still to get a sustained recovery . not much point in a chart as we havent really changed much in the entire month of june . daily holding at march lows but im fairly sure the stops below need to be run before a rally , im sure a lot are building and the support level will seem the area to define risk for many . im fairly market neutral atm and have been trading fx a bit as there is a more defined trend . anyway march lows key downside and the downsloping trendline resistance key for upside movement , between those 2 reference points there is a little range trading and not much else . below march lows the range down 2nd quarter 2010 comes into play . be careful out there ................

ps a very astute trader i know is looking for 4122 on cash 200 (xjo) , im keeping an eye on it


----------



## Boggo (27 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> Getting close to a 3 month grind down now with volatility slowly dissappearing .




Possibility that we may be approaching an area of support as highlighted below if the 4500 or thereabouts area doesn't hold up.

Pretty much in no mans land at the moment, waiting for the next piece of the jigsaw which may be next week in the new FY.

(click to expand)


----------



## nulla nulla (28 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The good news is we are higher this year than we were in July 2010. Also we bounced after 2 July 2010 when the reporting came in better than the write downs of the gfc.




The bad news is we need to bounce from here or the xao will continue to track down to 4350 and then possibly 4250. If it doesn't find support at 4250, you don't want to know where the next support level is.


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I'm observing a reluctance for buy and hold at this point in time. Appears to me that there are participants wishing to unload on any price appreciation. A pause before further declines maybe. Am buying so not pessimistic in view. Will see soon enough if 4500 remains.


----------



## bathuu (30 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hi guys,
Anyone think that it is now the end of the retracement or there are more to go down? DJIA went back above 12200 yesterday and stock futures suggesting another small run tonight and XAO has also just hit downtrend line today and stock futures suggest more upward movement tomorrow. Can someone experienced please post a proper analysis to agree or disagree with my view.
Thanks


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

*First signs of life since *March/April on our market.  That's how I see it.

Amongst the specs, a lot of strong looking bounces off lows, but may only have another 5-10% in them.

AORD had a double bottom, obvious on the recent chart.  Today was a breakout from that with a possible target of 4760.  I feel that a half strength move, (ie. 4700) is much more likely.  The other thing about 4700 is that it's the big parallel trend line break - returning for a look see.

There will be a few stocks with strong opens tomorrow.  A lot of money has been sitting out of the speccies since April, and the next few days should see some pretty decent runners in the 10-30% range.  Won't last long though, IMO.  I'll be 100% exposed tomorrow (up from 25%).


----------



## Wysiwyg (30 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Yes agree Gringotts with a solid follow through today but cautious all the same.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We actually had three bullish breaks on the chart today - descending triangle, descending channel and double bottom.  Can't get better than that.


----------



## nulla nulla (30 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Good to see it break through 4640 if only just. Hard to work out whether todays action was a case of improved market sentiment and buyers coming back in or a case of brokers closing out their end of fiscal year positions to get their bonuses.

The Greek Parliament has passed their austerity measures, Euro Bankers are committed to bailing out Greece. Our own reserve banks has come out and indicated it will support the big 4 banks if there is a melt down in Europe. 

Resources bounced again today which is supposed have a good flow-on effect to the rest of our economy, unemployment is still below 5% and the Reserve Bank is keeping the lid on interest rates which reduces the likelihood of defaults on local mortgages. In other words the housing bubble isn't going to burst tomorrow so we should improve from here.

If the xao can move up to the next resistance level of 4788 without retracing I'll be happy and will start buying again. If the gains prove to be false and it retraces I'll wait for the next bottom.


----------



## Boggo (30 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> If the xao can move up to the next resistance level of 4788 without retracing I'll be happy and will start buying again. If the gains prove to be false and it retraces I'll wait for the next bottom.




Agree, if it turns south between 4700 and 4760 there could be another leg down.

(click to expand)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

My analysis has it that there's another 20 points left to this rally, which won't happen today, but maybe over the next 1-2 days, finishing at 4715.  I've done my trades, back in cash and will look for some 'late stage' rally kind of stocks (ie. unpopular stocks running on unexpected good news).


----------



## joea (5 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

XAO with 89 period Elliott.


----------



## Boggo (6 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And just to make sure that nothing is simple, have we already seen the W.5 ? 

(click to expand)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> My analysis has it that there's another 20 points left to this rally, which won't happen today, but maybe over the next 1-2 days, finishing at *4715*.




I meant 4716, today's close.  

Actually this is ending here.  Looking strong to _at least_ 4731, next resistance (double bottom breakout target).


----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Isn't isn't ending here.


----------



## dlineinvestor (11 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Nothing on the charts really stands out except this possibility of forming.


----------



## Boggo (12 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It did come up to where W.4 was be expected to go as indicated here...
XAO chart 30th June

Sub 4400 would probably be the extreme of the three target areas below on the likely next leg down, not by any means impossible though.

(click to expand)


----------



## ginar (16 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

crazy times , carbon tax , the spectre of another quarter of negative GDP (read reccession ) , a govt on the verge of collapse ( no surprise to see election by years end ) , high aud affecting trade revenues . with all this hanging over the market no real surprises to see the market resisting any attempts to rally . seems australias economic strength is waning . poor retail , property on the slide . hard to stay positive isnt it ??  all i can say is just trade the chart and structure as it comes . for the nimble out there its still not that hard to turn a dollar just dont fall in love with a position , be dynamic and roll with the punches ...............  good luck


----------



## Boggo (18 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Today our market stopped just 3 points short of first target.

UK is in freefall tonight and I doubt if the US is going to arrest that fall, may actually enhance it, FTSE could be heading for 5500 soon (at a minimum).

Current chart of XAO, click to expand.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (20 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> Today our market stopped just 3 points short of first target.
> 
> UK is in freefall tonight and I doubt if the US is going to arrest that fall, may actually enhance it, FTSE could be heading for 5500 soon (at a minimum).
> 
> Current chart of XAO, click to expand.




Boggo, I'm interested to understand the wave count *within wave 3* in your chart. Do you have a count for the wave structure for 3?


----------



## Boggo (20 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> Boggo, I'm interested to understand the wave count *within wave 3* in your chart. Do you have a count for the wave structure for 3?




The sequence within W.3 is a bit untidy, when that happens I tend to work backwards from the end and see where the length of the W.3 is from the W.4 and that forces the W.2 into a position.
It is turning at the points that I have expected it to in previous posts based on the the first chart below.
Another possible option for the current declining sequence is on the second chart below.

As with everything EW it is dynamic, I am interested in what your view is of the current daily pattern ?

(click to expand)


----------



## Sean K (20 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> The sequence within W.3 is a bit untidy, when that happens I tend to work backwards from the end and see where the length of the W.3 is from the W.4 and that forces the W.2 into a position.
> It is turning at the points that I have expected it to in previous posts based on the the first chart below.
> Another possible option for the current declining sequence is on the second chart below.
> 
> ...



How do you trade this Boggo?


----------



## OzWaveGuy (20 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> The sequence within W.3 is a bit untidy, when that happens I tend to work backwards from the end and see where the length of the W.3 is from the W.4 and that forces the W.2 into a position.
> It is turning at the points that I have expected it to in previous posts based on the the first chart below.
> Another possible option for the current declining sequence is on the second chart below.
> 
> ...




Fair enough Boggo, the view I tend to hold is that wave 3's are usually aggressive and should demonstrate  a solid thrust (up or down), this wave doesn't convince me of those features nor does the structure of the wave. My charts on the wave assertions are in the obvious place since the detractors are quick in this thread (as per above) and perhaps a reason why thread sees so little activity these days.


----------



## Boggo (20 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> How do you trade this Boggo?




I don't trade the index, for me this is a way of predicting where the market may go and therefore whether to enter, exit, tighten stops or stand aside.
So far it's been a reasonable indicator of what may next, I haven't seen anything else that has given any indication where turning points etc may be...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=642854&viewfull=1#post642854

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=645122&viewfull=1#post645122

As I am sure you are aware it is quite tradeable though via various cfd's on the XJO etc, no different to any stock really, same rules (turning point, entry, stop and target).

I am holding four stocks that are following the same principle, all in profit with individual target areas etc and I have about half a dozen more trying to decide what they are going to do next.


----------



## Boggo (20 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



OzWaveGuy said:


> My charts on the wave assertions are in the obvious place since the detractors are quick in this thread (as per above) and perhaps a reason why thread sees so little activity these days.




Yes, its been quiet for a while now 

I will have a look at your view of the daily if you get time, have been looking at your 60 min etc.


----------



## Sean K (20 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> I don't trade the index, for me this is a way of predicting where the market may go and therefore whether to enter, exit, tighten stops or stand aside.
> So far it's been a reasonable indicator of what may next, I haven't seen anything else that has given any indication where turning points etc may be...
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=642854&viewfull=1#post642854
> ...



OK, thanks for the thoughtful response. 

For the lay person it's hard to keep track of how EW supports trading decisions as it has never been documented. 

Has proved to be useful to see where the XAO has been however.


----------



## tech/a (20 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> OK, thanks for the thoughtful response.
> 
> For the lay person it's hard to keep track of how EW supports trading decisions as it has never been documented.
> 
> Has proved to be useful to see where the XAO has been however.




Don't know what's so hard Kenna's
You've been at this long enough to know that this move is coming to an end
If it already hasn't.
The trade with least risk is long. Obvious stop at the recient low.
How hard is that?


----------



## OzWaveGuy (20 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



kennas said:


> OK, thanks for the thoughtful response.
> 
> For the lay person it's hard to keep track of how EW supports trading decisions as it has never been documented.
> 
> Has proved to be useful to see where the XAO has been however.




A lay person - lol, you give yourself so little credit. Perhaps there is someone else named Kennas that has detracted and distracted and then repeated such views in every Elliott wave thread in this forum.

There's plenty of "documentation" in amongst the detractors from years gone by on EW. I wonder why such threads no longer have participation. Although far be it for me to say a moderator cannot have freedom of speech in an effort to generate "interest". Welcome to my ignore list.


----------



## skc (20 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Don't know what's so hard Kenna's
> You've been at this long enough to know that this move is coming to an end
> If it already hasn't.
> The trade with least risk is long. Obvious stop at the recient low.
> How hard is that?




85% of all threads on the ASF either turn into a debate of FA vs TA or a debate on usefulness of EW 

I see the market moving up towards the recent high ~4740 on the back of "Yay US isn't going to default", before pausing to think "Shet, US actually has more debt now...".


----------



## Kryzz (20 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Read an interesting piece on futures expiry and increases in volume on constituent stocks earlier..

"the trading volume of constituent stocks in the S&P/ASX 200 index is 63 percent higher on the last trading day in the futures expiration cycle than its average volume taken over the previous 35 trading days.

 In turnover terms, the index constituent stocks are 68 percent more actively traded on the last futures trading day. Indeed, the Australian equities market is never more active over the course of the futures expiration cycle than on the last trading day10"

http://www.sfe.com.au/content/sfe/trading/market_insights_issue_17_200705.pdf

Wander as SPI futures for July are almost up, was this big upday somewhat of a facade?


----------



## Sean K (21 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Don't know what's so hard Kenna's
> You've been at this long enough to know that this move is coming to an end
> If it already hasn't.
> The trade with least risk is long. Obvious stop at the recient low.
> How hard is that?



Yes Tech, I've been trying to crack the EW nut for some time. I've tried every and all TA and FA, and they all have their place. I even followed Yogi for some time, in detail, and that was at least amusing. Following Bronti, less so. With most TA and FA however, I have seen live trades followed through. Either my own, or those sharing. Maybe I have missed the 'live' EW trades. Not just - going up, or going down - but implementation.  

Funny how I get on an ignore list for asking how an analysis is 'tradable'? Isn't that the aim? I guess not, for some.


----------



## tech/a (21 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I think most of your problem will be overcome when you accept that for many of us Elliot is an adjunct to our analysis not the "why " we take a trade in it's own right.

You can watch live trades until the cows come home on Elliot International site
They have many going at he onetime all using Advanced Get which as you know is based around Elliot Wave.


----------



## tinhat (21 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

It's my gut feeling that the bottom of the recent correction was in late June, technically 4512.5 @ close on 20/06/2011.

I've been buying. I just hope that the spring has been recoiled enough to get us over 5000 on the next leg up; and of course, that this is just not a speed bump on the way further down!


----------



## Sean K (22 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> You've been at this long enough to know that this move is coming to an end
> If it already hasn't.
> The trade with least risk is long. Obvious stop at the recient low.
> How hard is that?



Was this EW?



tech/a said:


> I think most of your problem will be overcome when you accept that for many of us Elliot is an adjunct to our analysis not the "why " we take a trade in it's own right.



I totally accept that Tech. Like any TA, it is another tool to aid in decision making. No one trades with a single 'tool'. 

Can you provide a link to a thread that has documented EW supported trades? I'm not going to be diverted to another forum.


----------



## Sean K (22 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

And Tech, since I started this thread about 5 years ago, I do need to remind myself of what I was thinking at the time.

The first post:



kennas said:


> Just thought I'd start a thread just on analysing the XAO. Anyone who has a diffent version of where they think the All Ords might be heading please feel free to post an alternate, or different perspective.
> 
> This might be an opportnity for any other T/As to put their particular analysis on where the XAO is going. Fib? Gann? EW? Would like to see any of that overlayed on my simple charting.



I may have lost the focus of the original purpose of this thread. 

Maybe it's not trading, just 'where it's heading', to aid in decision making.


----------



## ginar (22 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The heading on this thread reads XAO Analysis . cant say ive actually seen a lot of that in recent times , my attraction to this thread is certainly waning . keep it on the black stuff people


----------



## OzWaveGuy (25 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> The heading on this thread reads XAO Analysis . cant say ive actually seen a lot of that in recent times , my attraction to this thread is certainly waning . keep it on the black stuff people




Agreed. Who wants to put up the latest?


----------



## Logique (25 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



ginar said:


> The heading on this thread reads XAO Analysis . cant say ive actually seen a lot of that in recent times , my attraction to this thread is certainly waning . keep it on the black stuff people



Agree Ginar. There's an XAO Banter thread for those with comments. Many thanks to you and others for the analysis on this thread. BTW, just looked at the futures for overnight markets - not so great.  Cheers L.


----------



## sammy84 (25 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I have been keeping a blog which I try to analyse the XAO. I can't re-paste here as I imagine that would require some work. Latest entries:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/entry.php?b=893

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/entry.php?b=894


----------



## Logique (27 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Ok so it's the DJIA, but kind of relevant at the minute. Some possibility of a daily double top. If that's the worst that happens I'll take it. On the whole I think markets would rather rally, but these roosters in Congress will play at brinkmanship.


----------



## ginar (27 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

since april highs the cash 200 has made a series of lower highs and lower lows on daily chart . reference high on daily is 4626 with the reference low 4430 . 4450 has been the key level on a close basis and has offered stout support for over a month now , still had a lower high in that time so the bias is still ever so slightly bearish but we seem to be coming to a point where bias change has some hope . the high cpi data today put a rocket into the aud which in turn puts pressure on GDP . with last 1/4 aud has been above 1.05 mostly , giving us a fair chance of another negative GDP result . rate cuts are back of the table again so property price pressure remains . no wonder our market has underperformed most in the world this year


----------



## Kryzz (27 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Logique said:


> Ok so it's the DJIA, but kind of relevant at the minute. Some possibility of a daily double top. If that's the worst that happens I'll take it. On the whole I think markets would rather rally, but these roosters in Congress will play at brinkmanship.




On the possible double top scenario, it seems many major indicies have come of/into resistance with very light volume. XJO has been consolidating the last two months more or less, looking at a weekly chart may suggest further downside to the 4,200 mark still?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (27 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Kryzz said:


> On the possible double top scenario, it seems many major indicies have come of/into resistance with very light volume. XJO has been consolidating the last two months more or less, looking at a weekly chart may suggest further downside to the 4,200 mark still?




Agree.

It will go up or down, at least we know the trading range atm.

gg


----------



## tech/a (28 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sorry been away a while
Here is my latest take.




*We could also see a bottom again as strong support has to be broken for the new wave 5 targets to be achieved.*


----------



## LifeChoices (29 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Sorry been away a while
> Here is my latest take.
> 
> *We could also see a bottom again as strong support has to be broken for the new wave 5 targets to be achieved.*




No probs about the wait T/A, buy why not give me some freakin figures - you damn fence sitter. Put your figures out there.

When will it bottom out. C'mon all you experts what do you think?

My guess is we are going to get a big hit in mid august and it's going to bottom out around 4,000


----------



## springhill (29 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

For give a troglodyte for butting in on this thread, but why bother analysing the XOA on technical factors at this point?
Isn't the simple equation: If America comes to agreement on debt, XAO up.
                                   If America doesn't, XAO down.
I believe technicals to be irrelevant at this point.

*Awaits the wrath*


----------



## tech/a (29 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



LifeChoices said:


> No probs about the wait T/A, buy why not give me some freakin figures - you damn fence sitter. Put your figures out there.
> 
> When will it bottom out. C'mon all you experts what do you think?
> 
> My guess is we are going to get a big hit in mid august and it's going to bottom out around 4,000




If you bothered to read the chart above youll find the next two lower targets clearly shown.


----------



## Boggo (29 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



LifeChoices said:


> My guess is we are going to get a big hit in mid august *and it's going to bottom out around 4,000*




That's a bold statement for someone who can't read a basic chart.

I seem to remember Joe suggesting that such statements should be supported by a valid reason such as a chart etc.

Looking forward to your incisive and perspicacious justification of said prediction.


----------



## LifeChoices (29 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Boggo said:


> That's a bold statement for someone who can't read a basic chart.
> 
> I seem to remember Joe suggesting that such statements should be supported by a valid reason such as a chart etc.
> 
> Looking forward to your incisive and perspicacious justification of said prediction.




How is a chart or some three syllable words going to tell the rest of us what may be coming next in this market? 

My reason for saying 4,000 is my *gut feeling* which is just as valid as your stupid triangles.

So come on experts and those of you hiding behind your thesaurus - pick the bottom - pick a number: there's no right or wrong answer.


----------



## Dark1975 (30 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

:







tech/a said:


> Sorry been away a while
> Here is my latest take.
> 
> 
> ...




back to the xao analysis, Tech/a  i hope to see more of your e/w & graph analysis and thoughts on the xao in the next coming weeks if possible,Always good to see your analysis.

p.s : tech/a wtb more posts from u mate , ur seem to have the best insight and info as a trader on the asf site.Keep up the great work mate.


----------



## Joe Blow (30 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I didn't realize this thread has gotten so off topic, so I have gone ahead and cleaned it up a bit.

A reminder: This thread is for technical analysis of the XAO and any discussion of that analysis. All discussion of other influences on the XAO, such as local/global economic factors, should be posted in the XAO Banter Thread, which can be found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461

Lets keep this thread on topic and focussed.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (30 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Joe Blow said:


> I didn't realize this thread has gotten so off topic, so I have gone ahead and cleaned it up a bit.
> 
> A reminder: This thread is for technical analysis of the XAO and any discussion of that analysis. All discussion of other influences on the XAO, such as local/global economic factors, should be posted in the XAO Banter Thread, which can be found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461
> 
> Lets keep this thread on topic and focussed.




Why not call the thread "XAO Technical analysis" if it is to be TA based?

not that I take much part in either thread, but it has always seemed weird to me that the T/A thread be simply labeled "analysis" and the fundamental one labeled "Banter"


----------



## poverty (30 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Tysonboss1 said:


> Why not call the thread "XAO Technical analysis" if it is to be TA based?
> 
> not that I take much part in either thread, but it has always seemed weird to me that the T/A thread be simply labeled "analysis" and the fundamental one labeled "Banter"




This might actually help people to understand just what the hell is supposed to be going on in these threads


----------



## nulla nulla (30 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



springhill said:


> For give a troglodyte for butting in on this thread, but why bother analysing the XOA on technical factors at this point?
> Isn't the simple equation: If America comes to agreement on debt, XAO up.
> If America doesn't, XAO down.
> I believe technicals to be irrelevant at this point.
> ...




Part of my current thinking agrees with you but another part thinks that the current debacle between the U.S democrats and republicans, about how their debt ceiling should be raised, has only served to highlight to the rest of the world that their risk of default is higher than that of Italy and spain and will have far reaching devastion to global markets.




Tha xao has been trending down for since April and you could easily determine upper and lower channel lines for that period. The recent activity suggests that the market is trying to break out of the channel (upwards) but it is struggling and at best is holding at the present level going sideways. If the U.S. debacle continues our xao will fall until their is enough sentiment to pull the bargain hunters in and start an upward reversal.

The MACD suggest we are going to gap down further:




and the RSI suggests the market is oversold.


----------



## tech/a (30 July 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> :
> 
> back to the xao analysis, Tech/a  i hope to see more of your e/w & graph analysis and thoughts on the xao in the next coming weeks if possible,Always good to see your analysis.
> 
> p.s : tech/a wtb more posts from u mate , ur seem to have the best insight and info as a trader on the asf site.Keep up the great work mate.




Thanks 

Time is the enemy.
Often I see comments which are supported or invalidated by T/A.
Just havent the time to spare on many occasions.
But will where I can.


----------



## Joe Blow (3 August 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Tysonboss1 said:


> Why not call the thread "XAO Technical analysis" if it is to be TA based?




Fair enough suggestion. I have gone ahead and renamed the thread for the sake of clarity.

For those who wish to discuss the influence of other factors on the XAO, there's the XAO Banter Thread, which is intended to much more informal and conversational. 

For those interested in EW, there's the Elliott Wave and the XAO thread.

There's also another old thread from 2005 called XAO Analysis Prediction that someone might like to make use of.


----------



## tech/a (3 August 2011)

*Latest analysis*

CLICK TO ENLARGE


----------



## mr. jeff (3 August 2011)

please straighten me out  but I seem to find that the XJO is at 4332
and the XAO is at 4408. I guess they do move similarly.

Where I see the significant levels at 4350 and then 4220 approx. for the all ord's.
I will leave the real technical analysis to others, (I appreciate the insight too, thanks).

cheers.


----------



## tech/a (3 August 2011)

XJO
Asx 200
XAO
All ordinaries

Just different constituents


----------



## tinhat (4 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> *Latest analysis*
> 
> CLICK TO ENLARGE




So much for my prediction that we would see support and a reversal at around 4,500.

The first wave down was from around 5064 to 4512, which is a difference of 552. If we assume the second wave down is the same length as the first then we can expect the market to retrace around 550 points from the recent high of 4716 (08/07/11) which would be 4216 - say somewhere around 4200.


----------



## tech/a (4 August 2011)

T/H 
Goodstuff.
The market will take a breather
The longer it goes and the higher it rises the LESS likely
The analysis will play out.
Short sharp shallow corrections mean quicker and deeper falls or rises.


----------



## tech/a (5 August 2011)

Short correction and a very deep fall.
A smashing of the 4180 support will see much lower 
target in the mid 3000s
More analysis tonight.


----------



## nomore4s (5 August 2011)

Here is an update of some long term analysis originally from July 2009. Link to some of the original analysis below as well.

While it hasn't played out exactly, it isn't too bad considering it was made 2 years ago. We never saw a retest of that 3700 level like I thought we would, it only got to around 4200 and the rallies were stronger then I anticipated so obviously there was a lot more strength then I thought there would be. This strength also put my dates out by a few months on some occasions but the dates of the general highs & lows were pretty close to what was originally anticipated.

The retest of 3700 and maybe even 3100 in 2011/12 is now obviously a realistic scenario but I would expect 4200 to provide some sort of support.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=495644#post495644


----------



## Boggo (5 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Short correction and a very deep fall.
> A smashing of the 4180 support will see much lower
> target in the mid 3000s
> More analysis tonight.




Agree tech/a, not a good look at the moment.

(click to expand)


----------



## Solitus (5 August 2011)

Here's my non-EW take on the XAO currently looking at the weekly.

Not looking good at all - we had a back-test early last month of the short-term trend support from early 2010 and its now resistance IMO.

Looking for circa 4000 on the XAO short term.  Yes, thats lower than 4100.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 August 2011)

Support lines (horizontal) at:

4065
3950
3750
3515

The big bounce days will not happen, IMO.  There will be flat days, and days of +30, but nothing to indicate a reversal to uptrend for a while.

The 'new economy' won't be kicking into gear for a long time yet.


----------



## nulla nulla (7 August 2011)

If the xao doesnt hold 4050 (a previous resistance level) then the next support level is arround 3800. After last weeks fall a further 250 is not impossible (particularly now the downgrade has been fornalised).

If we don't hold 3800, then 3350 would be on the cards. The only difference this time down the slippery slope is our economy is in better shape than last time and the financial sector is not as badly exposed to potential credit squeezes as they were last time. Personally I will be surprised if we go below 3800.

[For some reason I can't upload the chart. Keeps telling me the file is not an acceptable image file although it is a .png format, exactly the same as I have always uploaded?]


----------



## nulla nulla (7 August 2011)

Here is the chart intended for the above post.





Anyone got a spare parrachute?


----------



## tech/a (7 August 2011)

Posted this on Elliot thread

*WEEKLY
CLICK TO EXPAND*

The dates shown are in the Fib zones shown 
but as you can see they are generally not respected.


----------



## lenny (8 August 2011)

Very interesting market atm, Todays low at 4015 equates to a 20% fall from the high on the 15/04 5025.

With a bear market roughly defined as a 20% fall over 2 months or more, Are we in a bear market?

Interesting to hear peoples thoughts?


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 August 2011)

This rally is determined to close the opening gap down is about all I can see at the moment. USA opens tonight and their markets are over 1.5% down at the mo.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 August 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Support lines (horizontal) at:
> 
> *4065*
> 3950
> ...




4065.


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2011)

3900 to 3819 highly likely today

Looking for volume in all indexes to mark a short term exhaustion of exasperated and concerned investors.

Then a rally which I expect to be shallow before a resumption towards GFC lows.


----------



## whitefang (9 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> 3900 to 3819 highly likely today
> 
> Looking for volume in all indexes to mark a short term exhaustion of exasperated and concerned investors.
> 
> Then a rally which I expect to be shallow before a resumption towards GFC lows.




Tech/a,
During Lehman crisis we did have rallies of 500 points though. I assume now you envisage no more than a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, and therefore maybe a rally of around 200-250 points... ? (not good at this, just counting the drop from around 5000 area...)


----------



## davo8 (9 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> 3900 to 3819 highly likely today
> 
> Looking for volume in all indexes to mark a short term exhaustion of exasperated and concerned investors.
> 
> Then a rally which I expect to be shallow before a resumption towards GFC lows.




I agree. Basically nothing has happened since this time in 2008, except for governments spending trillions on demand substitution. We are where we were: deja vu all over again.

My multi-year TA says that April 2010 and April 2011 are double tops, and together they are a 'lower high' (~5000) than October 2007 (Nearly 7000), looking for a 'lower low'. April 2009 is an unnatural pattern reflecting artificial stimulation by governments on a scale never seen before. The true pattern should have looked like early 1988 where it took up to 3 years to build a base for a proper recovery.

So now we face returns to the 3200-3500 region (or even lower) for a prolonged period, because (a) there is no longer the capacity of governments to stimulate (b) there is no housing market to inflate again (c) there is no-one left to take on new debt (d) so much money has been lost (and is yet to be lost).

I'm mainly cash for a while yet. TLS dividends are looking good.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 August 2011)

That's the bounce done, IMO.  Back down we go from here.  Lock in your profits and set your shorts.

The large and unusual gap on 5/8/11 would be very difficult to fill.


----------



## surfingman (15 August 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> That's the bounce done, IMO.  Back down we go from here.  Lock in your profits and set your shorts.
> 
> The large and unusual gap on 5/8/11 would be very difficult to fill.




Hi Gringotts,

Why are you thinking that the bounce is over?

I was thinking that the bounce has been overdone for the last couple of market days also as the fundamentals haven't changed with the problem countries (US and Europe) that started the last downturn a couple of weeks ago.

Currently its too volatile to set a short in my opinion as there could be another 200 points upside from here especially being earnings season. 

I am definitely sleeping with one eye open on the Dow and getting ready to place a short on the next pull back.


----------



## tech/a (15 August 2011)

surfingman said:


> Hi Gringotts,
> 
> Why are you thinking that the bounce is over?
> 
> ...




Yes I tend to agree here.
I do expect ranges to contract.
Volume will be important.
Im sure the wise will be using up moves to un load.
Into the "wise" who are buying "bargains"


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 August 2011)

surfing, there's that big downward gap, as mentioned, and to fill that would signal a return of confidence which wouldn't match the sentiment I'm seeing in the media.  That plus the specs seem to be running out of puff.  

Traders are so damn quick and moody these days, I feel that in order to profit I have to try and pre-empt what might happen, instead of befriending the trend.  

My


----------



## notting (15 August 2011)

Might be a good idea to turn the 'press' off at this point.


----------



## surfingman (15 August 2011)

Gringotts, thanks for the response I have never tried to trade gaps so I cannot comment on this but I will read up on it and watch from the sidelines.

Tech your spot on with volumes being the key.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 August 2011)

Back to the drawing board.  Gap will be well and truly closed today.  Sorry bout that.

Will sell my one and only remaining stock today, MPO.


----------



## nomore4s (16 August 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Back to the drawing board.  Gap will be well and truly closed today.  Sorry bout that.
> 
> Will sell my one and only remaining stock today, MPO.




Very weak open on the futures


----------



## panikhide (16 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Yes I tend to agree here.
> I do expect ranges to contract.
> Volume will be important.
> Im sure the wise will be using up moves to un load.
> Into the "wise" who are buying "bargains"




tech/a - Thank you for your "wise" counsel. I do feel as though it's all a bit of a game really. The media are acting as though the drama associated with the European debt crisis is so last week and everything is now smooth sailing. I must say I've had an itchy trigger finger that wants to buy because it now seems safe to do so. But, I will keep my cash (or what's left of it).

Things are so volatile, it's almost as though the only bargains to be had are those available on last day that everything is getting smashed in order to make a profit - ie think buying BHP at $35. But, good luck picking that last day.


----------



## Struzball (16 August 2011)

panikhide said:


> I do feel as though it's all a bit of a game really. The media are acting as though the drama associated with the European debt crisis is so last week and everything is now smooth sailing. I must say I've had an itchy trigger finger that wants to buy because it now seems safe to do so. But, I will keep my cash (or what's left of it).




The media knows no more (most likely nothing) about anything.

They don't reveal European debt crises and sub-prime crises which the market reads in a newspaper and then acts on.
They see a falling share market and make up a likely story to go with it, over the last few days the market has been rising but they can't find a good enough story out there to go with it!

As far as I can tell the only thing that makes share markets go up and down is the people doing the buying and selling, the rest is just to print headlines and spread fear/euphoria.

So just because the media isn't warning us all of impending doom, that doesn't mean it's not there, it just means the share market didn't fall yesterday.


----------



## joea (16 August 2011)

Struzball said:


> The media knows no more (most likely nothing) about anything.
> 
> They don't reveal European debt crises and sub-prime crises which the market reads in a newspaper and then acts on.
> They see a falling share market and make up a likely story to go with it, over the last few days the market has been rising but they can't find a good enough story out there to go with it!
> ...




Struzball.
Actually the media is warning us. Most people are reading about someones interruption of the market volality.

What  needs to be  read is business.
HSBC to reduce 30,000 jobs world wide.
Retail stores closing.
Jobs being lost everywhere.
Unemployment going up (officially). Do not be fooled by the 5%. Its actually 10 - 15% but is being covered up by equating part time jobs equally with full time jobs.
So the media is warning us, but with a subtle slant.

Joe Hockey asked the question to Swan, if the economy of the country is so good, and almost record unemployment, why can you not guarantee a surplus by 2012- 2013.
He did not get a straight answer. The noose is gradually closing around  Labor's money management.

The "Convoy of discontentment" is obviously not subtle. Its in the governments face.
joea


----------



## mattyhammer (16 August 2011)

joea said:


> Struzball.
> Actually the media is warning us. Most people are reading about someones *interruption* of the market volality.
> 
> What  needs to be  read is business.
> ...




Interruption or Interpretation? ;-)

But yes I tend to agree with you mate. There is a serious game of 'smoke and mirrors' being played out by Labor. There is some serious mismanagement happening in Australia's finances at the moment. 

Unemployment is very high. Try looking for a job at the moment....very slim pickings. Basic jobs requiring a degree paying $50k on the Sunshine Coast are attracting upwards of 50 applications, so can you imagine the applications for non-educated jobs? You need to be seriously 'over-skilled/educated' at the moment to get a job, unless you work in basic community need type jobs (mechanic, chef, hospitality, teaching, nursing). 
Good luck to us all during these crazy times!


----------



## davo8 (16 August 2011)

The games played by our politicians are irrelevant. The markets (and the wealth that underlies them) are driven by what's happening elsewhere and the uber-dominant effect is massive debt (bad for debtors and government) and massive unrealised capital losses (bad for creditors and banks).

But I agree on the TA. So far this is a rerun of March 2008, with the same bounce and same decreasing volumes. If so, the peak will be up about 500 points and will take nearly 2 months to reach. I expect a shorter cycle, so the downturn should be starting in mid-late September. If the rest of 2008 plays out, then the 'real' crash could be close to the end of the year. And it could be a doozy.


----------



## tech/a (19 August 2011)

As this chart has other analysis with it 
I have attached it here.
I think in the foreseeable future IF we get an impulse move down *TODAY* of *120* pts or so
Then 3100 is highly likely.

*If the index shows the resilience* it has on the past 2 index "shocks" then this analysis maybe invalidated.(Trading above 4350)


----------



## nulla nulla (20 August 2011)

A retrace on the dead cat bounce, however the cat used one of its' nine lives and is still clinging on. Fridays fall, in partial sympathy to the lead from overseas, did not achieve the level of fall in the first half hour of trading that it did earlier in the month. 

The all ords mucked arround through the day ranging from 98 points down to 120 points down, then started to fall arround 2.30pm, consistant with the friday afternoon sell off.

This was particularly noticable with the finance sector where wbc for instance was trading in the vicinity of $19.85 for most of the session then pushed down to $19.51 before closing on $19.65.


----------



## davo8 (20 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> I think in the foreseeable future IF we get an impulse move down *TODAY* of *120* pts or so
> Then 3100 is highly likely.




By my reading the index dropped 130 on open, recovered about 30 points and finished down 148. Sounds to me like it met your criteria (which I don't fully understand).

The chart reads as a primary down trend, with lower highs and lower lows. Surely the only serious question is: how low can it go?


----------



## whitefang (21 August 2011)

I find it a bit unusual that SPI is flat and not following the overseas trend. Or just the calm before the storm....maybe open flat and drop later on Monday afternoon...
I like tech/a target at 3100, wondering though how the annual Fed meeting may interfere with the TA.

cheers,


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 August 2011)

Just noticed the 250 DEMA has crossed down over the 250 EMA three times over the last 15 + years. On each occasion the Index dropped further and not more dramatically than in 2008. The third and most recent cross down was on the 18th of this month. Keeps me cautious though it might be different this time.


----------



## nulla nulla (30 August 2011)

The DJIA and the Nasdaq made significant grounds on the press that the "the economy isn't doing too bad..." If their markets can get enthusiastic on such a weak comment you wonder how much harder they will fall when the next dose of reality goes to press.

The djia seems to be climbing back toward 12000. Our market appears to be a lot more cautious and could settle into a lower range of 4,000 to 4,500 while we wait for more certainty in global markets.

Our two speed economy continues with the gap between the two becomming more apparent. Trade opportunities abound in the volatility.


----------



## tech/a (30 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> As this chart has other analysis with it
> I have attached it here.
> I think in the foreseeable future IF we get an impulse move down *TODAY* of *120* pts or so
> Then 3100 is highly likely.
> ...





While this ( 3100 ) may well still play out if the current high is taken out this *alternative* may also play out.


----------



## nulla nulla (30 August 2011)

Hmmm... Not in one day though, eh.


----------



## skc (30 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> While this ( 3100 ) may well still play out if the current high is taken out this *alternative* may also play out.
> 
> View attachment 44252




Pretty strong resistance at 4500 that will take some getting through... but the current trend sure indicates that we will test it soon enough.


----------



## tech/a (30 August 2011)

Personally I think we are in line for a great deal of ranging between 3900 and 4500.

It is likely to take sometime before Europe and the US Debt situation works its way to critical mass.

In the meantime the big black cloud will remain in place stifling any serious prolong bull run.

So Im looking at range trading opportunities.


----------



## notting (30 August 2011)

If it looks like that, it's one hell of a turn around. 

I'd anticipate *at least* one more V on the way up - given the impulsiveness of the preceding drop.  

Then the cerebral blanket provided by retailers assist by *breaking out* Christmas carols to help with the fogging of minds to extend the second wave of amnesia about Europe.
The US is growing and *feeling alright.*
Then when they all start to chime we're a bit over bought for the third time.  
Maybe a good time to short.


----------



## nomore4s (30 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Interesting point SKC but while the weekly bar looks the same the daily bars for those weeks tell totally different stories.
> 
> I actually think a closer representative of the bar from last Tue (9/08/11) is actually the bar printed on 21/11/08(green line on the chart) I know the intra day futures trading was pretty much the same. While we saw new lows after that bar, it signaled the end of the real momentum in that downward move, just look at the different flow after that bar.
> 
> ...






nomore4s said:


> Maybe but there are a few things to consider.
> - We are not coming off a multi-year bull run
> - The excessive leverage we saw at the top of the bullmarket is now drastically reduced
> 
> ...






nomore4s said:


> I'm not arguing that it won't or can't happen, I'm just saying the action and strength in those bars indicates some sort of bottom for the moment.




Analysis I posted in the tanking thread, still stands.

If anything the fact we didn't go below 4100 on the last leg down strengthens it.

I also think we will see a range bound market for the next few months and I'm still favoring prices to test 3200-3400 sometime next year but 3700 could yet provide enough support to stop that. I will have to review my outlook if we see prices above 4700 though.


----------



## notting (30 August 2011)

It may also be prudent to note the volumes on the S&P since July 27.
I'm not worried about that but I'm not ignoring it either.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (31 August 2011)

Very good day I thought.  Strong into close.

Yesterday saw an upwards breakout from a nicely formed inverted H&S, with (strangely) a target of 5030.  

Amazing turnaround.  How long will it last?  4600?  Hope so.


----------



## Sean K (31 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> As this chart has other analysis with it
> I have attached it here.
> I think in the foreseeable future IF we get an impulse move down *TODAY* of *120* pts or so
> Then 3100 is highly likely.
> ...






tech/a said:


> While this ( 3100 ) may well still play out if the current high is taken out this *alternative* may also play out.
> 
> View attachment 44252



Tech, What happened on 19 Aug? Looks like it tanked on my charts.

Can you summarise the forecast here, or is it something more complicated and we have to wait for highs and lows to be broken?

It seems like you're saying if it breaks up, then it breaks up to 4600 ish and if it doesn't in goes down to 3100 ish.


----------



## tech/a (31 August 2011)

What ifs Kennas
Like the trains on the tracks to Melbourne
If however it switches to Sydney then there is a good chance it will go there.

The current high hasn't been taken out yet so everything is still in a down trend longer term and an up trend in a shorter term.

Very difficult to trade anything longer term short or long.
My trading is intraday index futs 
No long term anything right now.
Plenty of what ifs.


----------



## nulla nulla (1 September 2011)

Trending downwards and sideways. IMO needs to break out above 4500 (and stay there) to reverse the downward trend. With reporting season not being as brutal as it could have been the upward break out is possible. 




However, with the global sovereign debt issues unresolved and the volitility of the u.s.a I still see the xao trading sideways between 4000 and 4500 with occaisional spikes under 4000 and hopefully some above 4500.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 September 2011)

A very well defined downwards channel has emerged.


----------



## investorpaul (6 September 2011)

Thanks for the chart Gringotts. Do you have any downside target in mind?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 September 2011)

Hi paul, I think most traders attention will be on whether 4145 holds in the short term.


----------



## Dutchy3 (6 September 2011)

DJIA 24 hour contract up about 100 atm.

Who's for a small day on Wall St tonight? All the Major world Indexes are trading into congestion (DAX pooped itself however and is a notable exception) ... will we take out 4300 before 4000? 

If 4300 maybe this time next week .... 4000 could be smashed (say) Friday


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 September 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Hi paul, I think most traders attention will be on whether 4145 holds in the short term.




Held once (close to it anyway) on the 6th, now revisiting today.  Draw a horizontal line connecting 22nd Aug - 6th Spet - today.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 September 2011)

12.30 - busted.


----------



## davo8 (13 September 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 12.30 - busted.




No, I'd call it holding so far but I don't see it building a base. The trend is still down. It won't take a lot to tip it over the edge...


----------



## nulla nulla (13 September 2011)

There doesn't seem to be enough volumes to provide any bounce off the support levels.


----------



## robz7777 (15 September 2011)

Not ususally one to look at things like Fibonacci - this just seems too obvious to me at this stage. Expecting a move back to 09 lows...

From the 07 high to the 09 low.
Retracement back to the 50% level twice - failed
Support and Resistance occurred a number of times at 38.2%
Some resistance in early 09 @ 23.6%, false break last month on that VERY strange day (9th?) before moving back to around 4000.. Again yesterday we moved back to 4000 on no new data and looking like bouncing off again today.. 

Just an idea but I think Bernanke's upcoming speech may be the trigger for the next move down..


----------



## skc (15 September 2011)

robz7777 said:


> View attachment 44497
> 
> 
> Not ususally one to look at things like Fibonacci - this just seems too obvious to me at this stage. Expecting a move back to 09 lows...
> ...




Nothing is surprising these days. I think Bernanake's action will spur the market one last time...albeit with a much shorter half life compared to QE1 and QE2. Perhaps a retest of 4500 before the next leg down...


----------



## Kryzz (22 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> I also think we will see a range bound market for the next few months and I'm still favoring prices to test 3200-3400 sometime next year but 3700 could yet provide enough support to stop that. I will have to review my outlook if we see prices above 4700 though.




Looking at the weekly, reckon we might get to 3400 before 2012 (Unless a 'volume-less' xmas rally holds it off briefly, as seen in the last couple years)


----------



## nulla nulla (23 September 2011)

Yesterday the drop of 108 points pushed the xao down to close below the support level of 4056. Last nights action in Europe was mirrored in the U.S. (the only glimmer of hope was that the U.S recovered approximately 150 points in the last hour).




The chart shows the XAO locked in a downward channel. The market is ecpected to open another 75 points down today which will push us down to the high 3900's. The macd for the xao shows that a downward gap is opening. Whether this is presenting buy opportunities to trade the gap or signalling a move to a lower level (sit back and watch) is hard to determine.


----------



## davo8 (23 September 2011)

Kryzz said:


> Looking at the weekly, reckon we might get to 3400 before 2012 (Unless a 'volume-less' xmas rally holds it off briefly, as seen in the last couple years)




Yup. I'm more or less predicting a replay of the 1987 crash, where the market bottomed at 1200 in early 1988, bounced and then returned to 1200 3 years later in 1991. It wasn't until early 1993 that a bull market was re-established, over 5 years later!

By this reckoning, the bottom at 3200 will be revisited this year or early next, and any sign of a real bull market is 2013 at the earliest. As an investor (not trader) I expect to be in mostly cash for a while yet (but TLS still pays good dividends!).


----------



## IFocus (23 September 2011)

And down we go no surprises here (at least there shouldn't be) US markets fall 40% on average on any recession, Europe is a certain recession add another what ever % and lets throw in sovereign debt crises all over the shop.

Asia gets the shakes.......

The debt thing will work out that western governments will have to tighten (ie pay down debt stop spending) at exactly the wrong time. This removes up to 1% growth shrinks GDP increases debt to GDP ratios sheezzzz it looks ugly.

Back to XAO rising volume shows selling and no buyers stepping up yet we have started to enter a recent buy zone. 

May see some support around 3800 but don't count on it.   

Reason is the miners are getting hit today but the banks are not but they will join the sell queue soon enough once the contagions of Europe start to get under way. 

Market is continuing to price risk.............the AUD falling is screaming that message.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 September 2011)

3600 target but can't be bothered posting chart atm.

NCM in death spiral having broken through a very long term trend line form 1998.

Nothing good, basically.  Banks won't hold these gains.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (26 September 2011)

Large volume on closing 30 minutes of SPI this afternoon. Short term rally on the way?


----------



## nulla nulla (27 September 2011)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Large volume on closing 30 minutes of SPI this afternoon. Short term rally on the way?
> 
> View attachment 44672




I noticed disproportionately large volumes went through in the closing auction on Woolworths and Westpac yesterday. I thought it might be shorters closing out their positions but Woolworths share price was pushed down 10c in the close and Westpac was pushed up 10c in the close. 

Possibly a case of a lot of T/A's "smart" people buying up bargains, expecting a rally this week. Buying the shares from other "smart" people selling into the price rise.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (27 September 2011)

Smart buyers and smart sellers, someone will end up with egg on their face!

Interesting times. One minute markets don't give a second thought to most of Europe, let alone USA being broke; then they have a panic attack. This latest debt solution for Greece looks like it will be a shot in the arm (short term at least) for the markets.

Longer term, as Zero Hedge says, Europe is putting everything they've got into saving Greece. Will be ugly if things don't go right from here.

I'm trying to get my head around who's trying to play who. Are we set for a rally because the rest of the world is scared of Europe and USA debt?

Are we setting up for a fall with investors being lulled into a false sense of security and then the big knockout punch?

The Trend's your friend... unless of course it's going sideways in a 4% range!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 September 2011)

Very hard trying to trade against the trend.  Here's a long term chart.  The meeting of the two yellow lines will be around 3600 and occur about mid 2012.  Long way off, but it will represent a very good technical buying opportunity.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (29 September 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> The meeting of the two yellow lines will be around 3600 and occur about mid 2012.  Long way off, but it will represent a very good technical buying opportunity.
> 
> View attachment 44693




Isn't the world meant to be ending in 2012? 

Seriously though... sideways/down until then... yuck!


----------



## Struzball (29 September 2011)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Isn't the world meant to be ending in 2012?




Typically everybody thinks it's the end of the world at the bottom of a stock market crash.  So considering 'the end of the world' is supposed to be December 2012, I'm guessing that will be the bottom of the stock market crash.

 Not exactly technical analysis, but we'll see.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 September 2011)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Isn't the world meant to be ending in 2012?
> 
> Seriously though... sideways/down until then... yuck!




I had "EOTW" marked on my charts around December, and I couldn't for the life of me remember what it meant.  Thanks for the reminder.


----------



## IFocus (29 September 2011)

Weekly chart of the VIX showing a flag like formation, range is a little wide but really classic chart pattern for a possible move higher.

.


----------



## Wysiwyg (13 October 2011)

> Weekly chart of the VIX showing a flag like formation, range is a little wide but really classic chart pattern for a possible move higher.



There was one last downward squeeze for any early birds in there IFocus. 



Agree with others that this level today 'looks' pivotal at 38.2% Fibonacci and also believe the 4425 level around 50% has to be breached to consider the down trend over.


----------



## Logique (14 October 2011)

Just so important for us that the US and UK indexes break out of their trading range. As the technically oversold positions unwind, repeated failed attempts to break out aren't a good signal.

As others have said, a critical juncture here, these indexes must go on with it now,  or be prone to roll over and test the lower part of the range again. Example of the 6 month Dow under.


----------



## Sean K (14 October 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I had "EOTW" marked on my charts around December, and I couldn't for the life of me remember what it meant.  Thanks for the reminder.



I thought we were just entering the 5th World on 21 Dec, not EOTW....


----------



## nulla nulla (22 October 2011)

The volatility in Europe and the U.S continues to flow through to the djia. At the moment the xao may be consolidating at the top of a downward/sideways channel. If the Europeans get their act together it is possible we may break out and test 4500, otherwise it is back to the lower levels arround 3900.




I find it amazing that the djia is testing highs arround 12,000 and we are languishing arround 4000. Either we are way under valued with our strong economy and low sovereign debt; or the U.S.A is way overvalued with their stuffed up economy and sovereign debt escalating out of control. Another bubble ready to burst and bring every thing down with it?


----------



## Wysiwyg (22 October 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> I find it amazing that the djia is testing highs arround 12,000 and we are languishing arround 4000. Either we are way under valued with our strong economy and low sovereign debt; or the U.S.A is way overvalued with their stuffed up economy and sovereign debt escalating out of control. Another bubble ready to burst and bring every thing down with it?



Looking for some day range narrowing (stability) on the S&P 500 index.


----------



## Boggo (22 October 2011)

I don't mean to sound too negative but this (the S&P 500) could easily head back down to around 1050 imo.
I am hoping that I am wrong as I feel that I have been sitting this out for longer than expected but I am not yet convinced that the negativity is done and dusted.

Just my 


(click to expand)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 October 2011)

Market deciding whether it can break that line.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 October 2011)

Already more than half way towards that target posted above (approx 4510).

This is the first truly bullish set up since mid-March by my reckoning.

So I'm buy and hold until we get really strong signs of reversal of sentiment.


----------



## nomore4s (28 October 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Interesting point SKC but while the weekly bar looks the same the daily bars for those weeks tell totally different stories.
> 
> I actually think a closer representative of the bar from last Tue (9/08/11) is actually the bar printed on 21/11/08(green line on the chart) I know the intra day futures trading was pretty much the same. While we saw new lows after that bar, it signaled the end of the real momentum in that downward move, just look at the different flow after that bar.
> 
> ...






nomore4s said:


> Analysis I posted in the tanking thread, still stands.
> 
> If anything the fact we didn't go below 4100 on the last leg down strengthens it.
> 
> I also think we will see a range bound market for the next few months and I'm still favoring prices to test 3200-3400 sometime next year but 3700 could yet provide enough support to stop that. I will have to review my outlook if we see prices above 4700 though.




Updated chart with current S&R zones.

My analysis of the low for the year still stands. We finally saw a retest of the 3900-4000 area which obviously held. One amendment I have is prices above 5100 not 4700 will make me re-assess my long term view.

I think we could bounce around between 4400-4700 for a while now but a push back towards 5000 might not be totally out of the question. Prices back under 4100 with no shows of support is a warning sign and under 3800 and all bets are off.


----------



## skc (28 October 2011)

nomore4s said:


> I think we could bounce around between 4400-4700 for a while now but a push back towards 5000 might not be totally out of the question. Prices back under 4100 with no shows of support is a warning sign and under 3800 and all bets are off.




That's my view ~3 hrs ago. Now we are looking at a pretty ugly candle to end the day possibly in the negative. 

We did run pretty hard yesterday (and for much of Oct) in the few hours trading available and the market may be taking some of the rate cut certainty back out...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 October 2011)

Something I can't work out, and I didn't really notice before, and that's the low volumes across the board since about Oct17.  It bothers me.  

Comments?


----------



## tech/a (28 October 2011)

No demand.
Id say the only buying has been from the private buyers and selling along the way into those buyers from those un winding exposure.
I agree that volumes need to be looked closely at.
Youll see clearly when the instos start buying and it wont be on UP moves.
Today is a good example of selling into those clever bargain buyers!!


----------



## notting (28 October 2011)

I think people are still freaked out and most of the buying was done buy machines being turned on buy sudden up moves triggering signals.
I'd say the selling is typical people wanting to lock in profits for the week not realizing that the next months are going to be far more positive than the last months because they are still in the old mental mode of not wanting to hold over the weekend.
Bargains never seem like bargains when they are all 10% to 20% higher than the past weeks!!
Although to be frank, I did get out of MQG and LYC when they were right up again this morning.


----------



## Boggo (28 October 2011)

Slightly off topic but relevant to volume perhaps.
Interesting watching the live trades going through on MCR, man or machine ?


----------



## notting (28 October 2011)

MCR was looking pretty weak up to yesterday when it lept 10%
I'd say man.


----------



## Logique (31 October 2011)

A good recent run on promising EU announcements, and above 4300 is technically a breakthrough.  But indicators are well bought, and daily MA still 'death crossed'. EU stuctural problems still there - and how long until more bad news out of Europe. Domestically, if the Reserve Bank does go into an easing cycle, that would help.


----------



## Whiskers (31 October 2011)

Logique said:


> A good recent run on promising EU announcements, and above 4300 is technically a breakthrough.  But indicators are well bought, and daily MA still 'death crossed'. EU stuctural problems still there - and how long until more bad news out of Europe. Domestically, if the Reserve Bank does go into an easing cycle, that would help.




Yeah, I'm suspecting we're a bit well bought atm. 

I was critical of the RBA when it raised rates, I felt too soon. I suspect they may well be loathe to cut back down again too soon, since the data is not conclusive one way or t'other. 

If they do not cut, I expect it to be a real damper on confidence and business expansion to slow substantially more than they expect in the next few months... sending the XAO down and sideways for awhile.


----------



## VSntchr (31 October 2011)

I have zero technical knowledge but the last minute of trading was quite interesting today!
A bout a 20 point fall...


----------



## RazzaDazzla (31 October 2011)

VSntchr said:


> I have zero technical knowledge but the last minute of trading was quite interesting today!
> A bout a 20 point fall...




There's no 20 point fall in the last minute on my charts.

XJO was ~4355 about 12:30pm and then did drop as low as ~4315 at about 2:30ish.


----------



## Wysiwyg (31 October 2011)

Whiskers said:


> Yeah, I'm suspecting we're a bit well bought atm.



Above average probability of a short term (1 to 10 days) pull back and then higher again.


----------



## Logique (9 November 2011)

Getting interesting technically. A looming 'Golden Cross' for the Dow, and the XAO is advancing toward the 200 EMA. By the futures, the XAO should finish > 4400 today.  Perhaps if a few more Europe national presidents could resign and keep the momentum going. 

Hopefully that giant asteroid misses the earth today, as the astronomers have assured us. Bit it's passing pretty close in cosmology terms.


----------



## Boggo (10 November 2011)

Amazing how areas of support/resistance seem to have an influence and coincide with other factors that influence the overall behaviour.

We need to get this gap closed and then get the ~4500 line to become support.

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a (10 November 2011)

DJIA Futs on the rise
Euroland DAX and FTSE clawing back
GOLD doing the same.


----------



## pavilion103 (11 November 2011)

Price struggling at the 50% retracement from the 11 April high and 9 August low. Also not far from a resistance level just above that. 
I've now drawn in an uptrend line which has acts as support so far.


----------



## Edwood (11 November 2011)

Boggo said:


> Amazing how areas of support/resistance seem to have an influence and coincide with other factors that influence the overall behaviour.
> 
> We need to get this gap closed and then get the ~4500 line to become support.
> 
> (click to expand)




looking like a bearish gartley Boggo - until it isn't


----------



## Boggo (11 November 2011)

Edwood said:


> looking like a bearish gartley Boggo - until it isn't




The A-B didn't quite make 0.786 of X-A as it should.
Overall though it indicates a major hurdle approaching 5000 if Bryce Gilmore's theory holds up.
I have looked at the basics of that theory but I prefer to keep it simple and just look at where we currently are in the overall pattern and where the support and resistance areas are.
At the moment (as per my earlier chart) we are trying to get through some basic resistance.

(click to expand)


----------



## nulla nulla (20 November 2011)

The xao appears to have bounced off the September lows of 3900 and begun moving sideways with higher highs and lower lows. Still very tenuous and subject to wild swings as the market oscilates between panic over the European mess and irrational exuberance of "she'll be right mate". It will be interesting to see if the xao holds above the recent support levels of 4209 and 4193 or whether we drift lower to retest the low of 3905.  




For now I see the market tracking sideways in a tight band between 4200 - 4400. Hard to work out if the xao is consolidating for a move upwards or pausing before the next round of sell offs. I can't see any likelihood of short term news turning the market bullish enough to push above 4400. I can see the possibility of retracing on negative news out of China tipping the scales the wrong way.


----------



## Boggo (20 November 2011)

My simple view of it at the moment, a 300 point range between 4200 and 4500 is probably where we are going to spend a bit more time.

(click to expand)


----------



## Whiskers (21 November 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> The xao appears to have bounced off the September lows of 3900 and begun moving sideways with higher highs and lower lows. Still very tenuous and subject to wild swings as the market oscilates between panic over the European mess and irrational exuberance of "she'll be right mate". It will be interesting to see if the xao holds above the recent support levels of 4209 and 4193 or whether we drift lower to retest the low of 3905.




I favor a bit of a retest of 3905 atm... looks a bit H&S'ish.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (22 November 2011)

My humble opinion, market is oversold. Running/expanded flat from XJO ~4400 high of wave I that was set at end of October.

Hope to see ~4,100 hold and attract buyer support with some volume and a good bar to signal end of ABC correction. ~4,100 is also a ~50% retracement.

If ~4,100 fails dramatically, then hang onto your hats as the previous strength has been the ABC correction in the continued downtrend.


----------



## Boggo (22 November 2011)

Just hung in there today...

(click to expand)


----------



## RazzaDazzla (22 November 2011)

Boggo said:


> Just hung in there today...
> 
> (click to expand)




Looks like a nice completed ABC correction from the recent high. Though Europe and USA debt is one hell of a headwind to be sailing into.


----------



## VSntchr (25 November 2011)

RazzaDazzla said:


> My humble opinion, market is oversold. Running/expanded flat from XJO ~4400 high of wave I that was set at end of October.
> 
> Hope to see ~4,100 hold and attract buyer support with some volume and a good bar to signal end of ABC correction. ~4,100 is also a ~50% retracement.
> 
> If ~4,100 fails dramatically, then hang onto your hats as the previous strength has been the ABC correction in the continued downtrend.




Any updates now that 4100 is gone?


----------



## Whiskers (25 November 2011)

Probably got a little to go yet to finish out the H&S pattern... maybe 4000ish.

That would also set up a good rising trend line.


----------



## Boggo (25 November 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Any updates now that 4100 is gone?




All that is left until August support at ~3830

(click to expand)


----------



## nulla nulla (26 November 2011)

Yesterdays close of the xao at 4057 was only one point above the 4056 close of 8-8-11 and open of 9-8-11. At that time the xao rallied but 6-7 weeks later tested new lows of 3950. The xao seems to be rushing headlong downwards with every likelihood of breaking through the previous support levels to test new lows. 




The doom and gloom of the global sovereign debt issues continues to dominate the news and all eyes are nervously watching China. Contraction in China will impact strongly on Australia's resource sector. Combine this with the impact of the credit squeeze on our finance and property sector and the future picture is not looking to rosy.


----------



## Billyb (27 November 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> The doom and gloom of the global sovereign debt issues continues to dominate the news and all eyes are nervously watching China. Contraction in China will impact strongly on Australia's resource sector. Combine this with the impact of the credit squeeze on our finance and property sector and the future picture is not looking to rosy.




Yes there's no reason to believe that the ASX trend will change while Europe is still in this mess. If Europe's lending sector is in a mess then so is our lending sector. All this technical analysis is fun but at the end of the day if the fundamentals are this crap it's hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel yet.


----------



## davo8 (28 November 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> The xao seems to be rushing headlong downwards with every likelihood of breaking through the previous support levels to test new lows.




Indeed. On medium and longer timeframes, 4000 looks like a level to be toyed with for a while before heading lower. There are levels around 3700-3800 but the big one is 3200 and that's my pick.



> Contraction in China will impact strongly on Australia's resource sector. Combine this with the impact of the credit squeeze on our finance and property sector and the future picture is not looking to rosy.




Yup. The slide in the AUD, CRB, metals prices all indicate commodities trouble, and failed bond auctions in Europe mean trouble for our banks. All we need now is for consumers here to stop spending and house prices to slide and it's hard to see where any conceivable recovery could come from.


----------



## Logique (4 December 2011)

The news commentary is relentless isn't it. I know the thread header says XAO, but Europe does affect this. And I'm not attempting to predict the future here. Please excuse the mixed metaphor, it's actually big bad wolves who huff and puff.


----------



## Whiskers (20 December 2011)

The next few days are obviously critical for the direction into the new year.

While the weekly chart is looking like Three Black Crows atm, what's the thinking toward the break north (daily chart below), which could see resistance around 4,400 broken and a potential H&S, would set the yardstick to test the next resistance around 4,700?


----------



## davo8 (21 December 2011)

The trend you've drawn starts in Oct. If you go back to Aug or Apr the trend is (a) down (b) range bound 4000-4400. You could certainly trade the cycle off the current low back to 4400, but if you place bets on it going higher, you are betting that the market sees a return to the good times in a year or two.

My view is that the fundamentals are so unrelentingly bad, that when the fake Euro treaty falls apart in a couple of months we'll be back here again, or lower. Or it could be riots in Spain, or it could be the EFSF losing its credit rating, or a French bank failing, or Portugal defaulting on its bonds, or the start of a US-China trade war. You name it!

It will take many months (or years) of building a base at some low level before there is the platform for a solid move higher. If China hits the wall, look out below!


----------



## Whiskers (21 December 2011)

davo8 said:


> The trend you've drawn starts in Oct.




Actually, that (heavy yellow) line is just meant to show the possible H&S.

Otherwise I don't dissagree with your commentry.

A few things (not necessiarly in order of priority) that could be key indicators of a short to medium term reversal to test resistance are;

the North Korean uncertainty and presumed higher risk for conflict there [Increased demand for resources]
Better employment data in the US recently
While Greece still has problems, another of the PIIGS, Italy, has had a sucessful bond issue, and
latest better than expected business sentiment for the German economy confound the critics.


----------



## davo8 (22 December 2011)

Fair enough. I don't really know whether a H&S (or H&S bottom) is a chart pattern that you expect to see on an index like the XAO, or whether it would have any predictive power. I know H&S is used to predict the size of a move, although I wouldn't claim any success.

I see charts like this as largely reflecting the opinions of lots of other market participants who look at the same charts and see the same patterns and what it says to me is: no-one has a clue what the next big move will be!

I seriously distrust the US employment figures and much of the other fluffy news: the underlying figures are still bad. Guess we just wait and watch...


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 January 2012)

I thought 2700 was extremely pessimistic at the time and the worst of the debt crisis so far hasn't pressured below 4000 for long. The only event this year that could push the markets to extreme lows such as 2700 is a conflict in the Middle East. However, the chart suggested a drawn out bearish period and that has happened.


----------



## nulla nulla (7 January 2012)

The lows appear to be getting higher however the highs appear to be having problems breaking back above 4425.  

The Euro factor is dragging out. It seems the Europeans are waking up to the reality that breaking up the euro and returning to individual currencies would have long term disastrous results. Knowing that they need to work out their problems and knowing how to go about it are two different things. 




Recent volumes are probably unreliable to use as the basis for longer term investment strategies or forming any opinion as to where the xao is going in the near future.


----------



## grandia3 (8 January 2012)

Well it's been hard for Aus producers to compete in the market (look at BSL, OST, etc and the recent Heinz factory close)

I would say that XAO is bearish in the short term perhaps until these producers can produce offshore

my 

edit:
oh and remember carbon tax = more cost = less profit = share prices go down again


----------



## whitefang (10 January 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> The lows appear to be getting higher however the highs appear to be having problems breaking back above 4425.
> 
> The Euro factor is dragging out. It seems the Europeans are waking up to the reality that breaking up the euro and returning to individual currencies would have long term disastrous results. Knowing that they need to work out their problems and knowing how to go about it are two different things.
> 
> ...




Just wondering what other people's view is regarding the chart you posted and where the market is going to go.

I personally see it as an ascending triangle in a downtrend, and on low volume I would tend to think that it would represent a continuation pattern, and it will break to the down side.

There is also a chance that it can be a reversal pattern and it can break to the upside, though I could see it happening only on increasing volumes.

cheers,


----------



## Edwood (10 January 2012)

whitefang said:


> I personally see it as an ascending triangle in a downtrend, and on low volume I would tend to think that it would represent a continuation pattern, and it will break to the down side.




think its more like this personally - could go either way


----------



## Sean K (10 January 2012)

Edwood said:


> think its more like this personally - could go either way
> 
> View attachment 45756



The top resistance could be heading down short term but back a few months there's that zone between 4500-600 that looks like a hurdle. 




But agree either way.


----------



## pixel (10 January 2012)

Edwood said:


> think its more like this personally - could go either way
> 
> View attachment 45756



 I tend to become more optimistic myself, Edwood;
If I can't quite get a handle on the pattern - continuation? reversal? - I like to look at the relative momentum, for which I use MACD with a shorter set of parameters. Having done that 2 years ago, the Bearish Divergence from September 2009 across April 2010 was definitely over when MACD rose above the extension. 
Yes, that's hindsight. But the Lower Highs - Higher Lows pattern of the main chart around the middle of 2010 looked similar to the current "indecision" - *and broke to the upside* as MACD terminated the Bearish Divergence.
Fast forward to Feb-Apr 2011, and we have again a Bearish Divergence that is followed by a pattern we're not quite sure yet about. But again, MACD has terminated the Divergence line, which increases my confidence that the next move should be up again.


----------



## whitefang (11 January 2012)

Quite a good argument here, pixel.

Personally I would be more optimistic if I could see some volumes/positive OBV (though I take into consideration the fact we have just gone through a quiet period of the year).

cheers,



pixel said:


> I tend to become more optimistic myself, Edwood;
> If I can't quite get a handle on the pattern - continuation? reversal? - I like to look at the relative momentum, for which I use MACD with a shorter set of parameters. Having done that 2 years ago, the Bearish Divergence from September 2009 across April 2010 was definitely over when MACD rose above the extension.
> Yes, that's hindsight. But the Lower Highs - Higher Lows pattern of the main chart around the middle of 2010 looked similar to the current "indecision" - *and broke to the upside* as MACD terminated the Bearish Divergence.
> Fast forward to Feb-Apr 2011, and we have again a Bearish Divergence that is followed by a pattern we're not quite sure yet about. But again, MACD has terminated the Divergence line, which increases my confidence that the next move should be up again.
> ...


----------



## nulla nulla (11 January 2012)

IMO the xao is going to trade between 4450 and 4100 for a little while longer. The xao appears to be running up on the euphoria linked to the current U.S. reporting which is showing to be slightly better than analyst expectations (even in the instance of Alcoa, where the loss was less than expected). 

A break and hold above 4250 would encourage me to think the xao could test 4450 again. Negative news out of Europe and China could just as easily trigger a fall and see us test the lower channel support line arround the 4140 level. If it fails to hold there then its back to 4040 or lower.

If Europe keep making positive noises about solving their problems and China isn't too tight with their internal money controls, Banking and Mining have plenty of scope to provide the drive to push the xao above 4450 into the 4500 - 4600 range. Further than that would be asking a lot in the current soveriegn debt focused period. 

What ever happens, trade the volitility.


----------



## whitefang (11 January 2012)

EW is on another thread...which is something I follow at times....
If I am not wrong, there was an expectation for a W5 to take the market to a new low.
Anyone can re-state at what point the count would be invalidated if market went up?

cheers,




nulla nulla said:


> IMO the xao is going to trade between 4450 and 4100 for a little while longer. The xao appears to be running up on the euphoria linked to the current U.S. reporting which is showing to be slightly better than analyst expectations (even in the instance of Alcoa, where the loss was less than expected).
> 
> A break and hold above 4250 would encourage me to think the xao could test 4450 again. Negative news out of Europe and China could just as easily trigger a fall and see us test the lower channel support line arround the 4140 level. If it fails to hold there then its back to 4040 or lower.
> 
> ...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 January 2012)

Edwood said:


> think its more like this personally - could go either way
> 
> View attachment 45756






kennas said:


> The top resistance could be heading down short term but back a few months there's that zone between 4500-600 that looks like a hurdle.
> 
> View attachment 45757
> 
> ...




Agree with you, good posts. Watch and wait.
A bit like Shakespeares Sonnet 57

gg


----------



## Logique (19 January 2012)

A look at the German DAX over the last year, on weekly data, the media being in a Euro calamity frenzy, hourly broadcasts of doom. Yet in fact the DAX has been in a weekly uptrend since Sept 2011.


----------



## Logique (21 January 2012)

Focusing on the US CBOE volatility index, weekly VIX. Below 20 overnight, a magic number for techies who will be wondering if it predicts a year long rally in the Dow, under similar TA patterns during 2010-2011. But markets keep us guessing, and will continue to do so.


----------



## nulla nulla (21 January 2012)

The chart for recent activity on the XAO indicates that we have been moving sideways and upwards since August 2011. The trading since 02 January 2012 indicates a rebound from the lower channel area of 4100. The next level of resistance is arround 4380 and if we can break through that there is no reason we can't move further upwards in the channel to the 4450 - 4500 area.




But, yes there is a but, the trading since 02 January 2012 is relativley light and can easily be reversed when the professional traders and brokers come back from their annual Xmas/ New Year holiday, probably next week. 

All of them keen to generate fees to cover their recent excesses and expenses. Harbingers of doom contacting all their clients, ranting about GFC2 and yelling "Sell Sell Sell". No doubt they will generate brokerages, push the market back down, then call their clients back yelling "Buy Buy Buy" so they can generate more fees.

Meanwhile the volitilty is maintained and the opportunities to trade the swings recur with consistant regularity. Gotta love the system.


----------



## Boggo (21 January 2012)

I wouldn't be leaving any sharp objects within reach of these guys nulla nulla, scary stuff.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-says-world-bank/story-e6frg8zx-1226247838375


----------



## Sean K (21 January 2012)

With all the negative media about the world a lot of the downside must be factored in. Maybe. EU defaults are pretty much expected and the US debt clock has been getting lots of airplay. IMF statements of near doom have set the tone. pe ratios of the world market are below average confirming the above. So, with the market seeming to hold up in the short term and not in any tail spin just yet maybe there's more risk to the upside? Or, maybe there's something more shocking in store for world economies? Iran induced oil shock perhaps. 

No change on the chart for me. Sideways at best until that 4400-4500 zone is cleared including 200d ma. If the higher lows support line broken more down side risk.


----------



## davo8 (22 January 2012)

Logique said:


> A look at the German DAX over the last year, on weekly data, the media being in a Euro calamity frenzy, hourly broadcasts of doom. Yet in fact the DAX has been in a weekly uptrend since Sept 2011.




Sorry, but I'd call that cherry picking end points. My reading is that the market crashed and has partly recovered, but the trend is down. I might change my view if there were a higher high, close to 7,000, but I certainly wouldn't want to buy any dips on that trend.


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2012)

davo8 said:


> Sorry, but I'd call that cherry picking end points. My reading is that the market crashed and has partly recovered, but the trend is down. I might change my view if there were a higher high, close to 7,000, but I certainly wouldn't want to buy any dips on that trend.



7000 on the XAO, or DAX? Around 6400 on the DAX is the issue I feel.


----------



## Logique (22 January 2012)

davo8 said:


> Sorry, but I'd call that cherry picking end points..



Davo you've just described every chart in the thread. I'm happy for you to interpret them in any way that suits you. It's just information, and we all need that.


----------



## davo8 (23 January 2012)

Logique said:


> Davo you've just described every chart in the thread. I'm happy for you to interpret them in any way that suits you. It's just information, and we all need that.




I don't think I'd agree, and I didn't see 'uptrend' as a fair description. The DAX bottomed in early 2009, but had been trending upwards until it dropped sharply in August 2011. It's still 1000 points off its highs and in many ways looks like 2008 before it fell off a cliff.

What you're seeing is investors betting that the recession won't be as bad as they feared, but the start of a sustainable trend this is not. As Chris Richardson is saying, there is 50-50 chance of 'Eurogeddon' and the chart reflects that.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 January 2012)

This is an equity curve of a system I follow but don't trade.  I follow it because it seems to reflect the mood of the market quite well.  The arrow shows where the system started to lose money, Mar 2011 which was sort of a turning point for our market (cross below MA).  What's encouraging is that it looks ready to trade again, because it's just nudging the MA (light blue) after a long time under it.


----------



## Wysiwyg (23 January 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> This is an equity curve of a system I follow but don't trade.



How come that equity curve remained positive during the 2007-2009 crash?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 January 2012)

Wysiwyg said:


> How come that equity curve remained positive during the 2007-2009 crash?




I guess despite the big falls, people were still eager to trade and good stocks were still able to appreciate.  Since Mar 2011, things have definitely been different, IMO.


----------



## Boggo (24 January 2012)

My tea leaves are saying  that we are looking down the barrel of a possible correction to just over 4200, if that fails then we are looking at around 4140 for the next test.

I like the higher lows we have been getting but would like a new high to break out of this cycle of recent lower highs.

(click to expand)


----------



## whitefang (25 January 2012)

Agree.
I see you would like to see a breakout to the upside.
We are in this symmetrical triangle, which seems to come closer and closer to a breakout. If it is to the downside, then it XAO will probably go lower than 4140, and somehow I favour this scenario, mostly because I believe we are in a downtrend...though I struggle to find right now a catalyst for this (but hey, this can change at any minute).
I get a sense that most people think it will break to the upside, and this is quite possible.  Reasonable resolve of European crisis for this week, some better than expected results in the US...and up we go...

cheers,



Boggo said:


> My tea leaves are saying  that we are looking down the barrel of a possible correction to just over 4200, if that fails then we are looking at around 4140 for the next test.
> 
> I like the higher lows we have been getting but would like a new high to break out of this cycle of recent lower highs.
> 
> (click to expand)


----------



## Boggo (31 January 2012)

Which came first, the chicken or the egg, the action or the indicator ?
May be time to tighten a few stops.

(click to expand)


----------



## Wysiwyg (31 January 2012)

Boggo said:


> My tea leaves are saying  that we are looking down the barrel of a possible correction to just over 4200, if that fails then we are looking at around 4140 for the next test.



How about we creep higher and let more and more short sellers join in and then have a couple of strong days up to trip em all out before turning down again.  

Nah, that's dirty pool.


----------



## Boggo (31 January 2012)

Wysiwyg said:


> How about we creep higher and let more and more short sellers join in and then have a couple of strong days up to trip em all out before turning down again.
> 
> Nah, that's dirty pool.




I can even supply a candidate for you to short Wysiwyg, go on, you know you want to 

(click to expand)


----------



## tinhat (1 February 2012)

Boggo said:


> Which came first, the chicken or the egg, the action or the indicator ?
> May be time to tighten a few stops.
> 
> (click to expand)




I assume that is a stochastic oscillator you are showing us there? What parameters are you using please?


----------



## nomore4s (1 February 2012)

nomore4s said:


> Updated chart with current S&R zones.
> 
> My analysis of the low for the year still stands. We finally saw a retest of the 3900-4000 area which obviously held. One amendment I have is prices above 5100 not 4700 will make me re-assess my long term view.
> 
> I think we could bounce around between 4400-4700 for a while now but a push back towards 5000 might not be totally out of the question. Prices back under 4100 with no shows of support is a warning sign and under 3800 and all bets are off.




Obviously the low did hold and I actually now think it could hold for 2012 as well.

My current view is we will range between 5100 and 4000 for a while maybe for the whole of 2012. We may see quick excursions above or below those ranges but atm I don't think they will be very long lasting outside that range.

My immediate view is we will break to the upside of this current range and then spend quite a few months ranging between 5100 & 4400. So I think 2012 will be a sideways year.

Weekly chart attached.


----------



## Logique (1 February 2012)

Look at that decreasing volume since Sept 2011. Combined with a triangle pattern, what on earth can it all mean, a breakout I guess. A lot of the weekly oscillators/indicators, and lately even some of the macroeconomic data, would suggest a bullish breakout. Even some of the old faithful maxims, eg 'as January goes, so goes the year'.  
But I expect traders to continue be cautious.


----------



## Boggo (1 February 2012)

tinhat said:


> I assume that is a stochastic oscillator you are showing us there? What parameters are you using please?




Its a Dynamic Trader Oscillator, or DTosc as created by Robert Miner and is part of his software.
_This indicator is a combination of two indicators. It is derived by running an RSI through a Stochastic calculation. Thus, just as the Stochastic measures where closing prices are within the recent trading range, the DT Oscillator measures where the current value of the RSI is relative to its recent high-low range._

Just remember when dealing with momentum indicators that they are an indication of momentum, not price action., ie momentum indicators are an indication of momentum trends not price action trends. The two can be in and remain in sync until something upsets the price trend, then the momentum indicator has to find its feet again.

In the case of the XAO chart above, they are currently in sync.

Scroll down this page and you will find references to the DTosc.
http://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/my-style/momentum-indicators/
and here
http://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/my-style/putting-it-all-together/


----------



## Billyb (6 February 2012)

Logique said:


> Look at that decreasing volume since Sept 2011. Combined with a triangle pattern, what on earth can it all mean, a breakout I guess. A lot of the weekly oscillators/indicators, and lately even some of the macroeconomic data, would suggest a bullish breakout. Even some of the old faithful maxims, eg 'as January goes, so goes the year'.
> But I expect traders to continue be cautious.




Agree 100%. ALthough I feel it needs to churn a bit longer


----------



## tinhat (7 February 2012)

Boggo said:


> Its a Dynamic Trader Oscillator, or DTosc as created by Robert Miner and is part of his software.
> _This indicator is a combination of two indicators. It is derived by running an RSI through a Stochastic calculation. Thus, just as the Stochastic measures where closing prices are within the recent trading range, the DT Oscillator measures where the current value of the RSI is relative to its recent high-low range._
> 
> Just remember when dealing with momentum indicators that they are an indication of momentum, not price action., ie momentum indicators are an indication of momentum trends not price action trends. The two can be in and remain in sync until something upsets the price trend, then the momentum indicator has to find its feet again.
> ...




Thanks for the info.


----------



## Andruha (8 February 2012)

It is interesting to note that last week rally on all the major overseas markets did not spark much in ASX. Is ASX tired or are we waiting for something (Europe perhaps) to happen?

And in terms of drop in volume - doesn't that mean that the big money are not involved in the current move, not looking to push prices higher?


----------



## Starcraftmazter (9 February 2012)

Andruha said:


> It is interesting to note that last week rally on all the major overseas markets did not spark much in ASX. Is ASX tired or are we waiting for something (Europe perhaps) to happen?
> 
> And in terms of drop in volume - doesn't that mean that the big money are not involved in the current move, not looking to push prices higher?




Most of the ASX8 (which drive the ASX200 and the all ords) are *at* major points of resistance, and it will take some uber positive news to get them over it. Such as a resolution in Greece for instance.

Meanwhile we've had a lot of negative Australian data. Unemployment is going up, retail is getting hammered, iron prices have suffered a serious correction recently, constant problems and concerns about China - their PMI by HSBC's reporting is still negative.

There's just not much light here, no good reason for the market to go up above 4300ish.


----------



## IFocus (9 February 2012)

Andruha said:


> It is interesting to note that last week rally on all the major overseas markets did not spark much in ASX. Is ASX tired or are we waiting for something (Europe perhaps) to happen?
> 
> And in terms of drop in volume - doesn't that mean that the big money are not involved in the current move, not looking to push prices higher?






Rising AUD?


----------



## Andruha (10 February 2012)

IFocus said:


> Rising AUD?




Good point. Rising AUD can be attributed to the rise in the commodity index since December. And commodities are tied to the risk appetite I guess.

So coming back around to what Starcraftmazter said before - the Greece could be a catalyst...or poison.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (10 February 2012)

I think people (I know I am) are sick to death of Euro crisis. It's never ending. Headlines change on an hourly and daily basis. Latest I heard was that Greek bond investors were seemingly happy to accept a 70% loss on their bond investments (ABC Radio News this morning). So why not just accept 100% and be done with it.

The Greeks are going to protest because the Govt. is trying to decrease their minimum wage and, heaven forbid, raise the retirement age from 55!

I'm sick of it, I think the markets sick of it. Good or bad resolution, any resolution will be good news for the market IMO. I'm not saying that if there's a default the market will not fall, but after any initial shock, it will be onwards and upwards.

Mind you, IMO high aussie dollar is not good for our market. OS investors are happy to just stick the money in our banks and earn ~4%. Everyday Aussies are too gun shy of the market. My two cents, the large funds have been sheepishly buying and keeping under the radar.


----------



## notting (10 February 2012)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Latest I heard was that Greek bond investors were seemingly happy to accept a 70% loss on their bond investments (ABC Radio News this morning). So why not just accept 100% and be done with it.



That's the way they have been trying to groom every one to think!  Not too shocking, just drip it out so as many plugs and band aids can be put in place to prevent chaos when it defaults without calling it a default which is what it has already done/doing.  Next, Portugal?


RazzaDazzla said:


> any resolution will be good news for the market



Unfortunatly that's the problem.  
There isn't a resolution.
Apart from printing till inflation.
That's about where China is now.  They won the race to the bottom.
Their leaders just intended not to be around when it came time to collect the prize!


----------



## Julia (10 February 2012)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Mind you, IMO high aussie dollar is not good for our market. OS investors are happy to just stick the money in our banks and earn ~4%.



 4%?   You can get 6% + online at call.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (12 February 2012)

RazzaDazzla said:


> I think people (I know I am) are sick to death of Euro crisis. It's never ending. Headlines change on an hourly and daily basis. Latest I heard was that Greek bond investors were seemingly happy to accept a 70% loss on their bond investments (ABC Radio News this morning). So why not just accept 100% and be done with it.




My theory is that EU wants banks to write down debt (ie. take losses) one step at a time, so that they have a chance to absorb the losses and get more capital gradually as opposed to one big loss which would stress the market a lot more.



RazzaDazzla said:


> I'm sick of it, I think the markets sick of it. Good or bad resolution, any resolution will be good news for the market IMO. I'm not saying that if there's a default the market will not fall, but after any initial shock, it will be onwards and upwards.




That's one perspective. However consider that once the Greek fiasco is over, attention will immediately turn to Portugal. It is in the EU's best interests to milk Greece for all it's worth, and keep everyone's attention there while they get their house in order - in terms of bank capital raisings and sorting out the fiscal situation in the rest of the PIIGS.



RazzaDazzla said:


> Mind you, IMO high aussie dollar is not good for our market. OS investors are happy to just stick the money in our banks and earn ~4%. Everyday Aussies are too gun shy of the market. My two cents, the large funds have been sheepishly buying and keeping under the radar.




Agreed, let's hope that Friday was the beginning of at least a short term downward correction in the AUD. If so, it should give our market some added strength.


----------



## Edwood (24 February 2012)

looking like we might finally get a general kick higher, assuming XAO can crack this resistance.  could see a run to the 4600 area


----------



## tinhat (25 February 2012)

I appreciate that many of the regulars on this forum appear to be slogging it out in the Gillard v Rudd, Gillard v Abbott discussions in other parts of these fora at the moment but, in case people haven't noticed...

It was an interesting week for the XAO. This week the XAO closed above the 200 day moving average for the first time since 1 June 2011. It did this on Tuesday and has been able to hold above the 200 day MA at close every day since. The 10 day moving average has been above the 30 and 50 day moving averages since mid January. Personally, as I am not a trader, I like to compare the 10 week MA against the 30, 40 and 52 week MA. This week the 10 week MA closed above the 30 week MA for the first time since early June 2011. 

There have been some good results come through for specific companies this reporting season with the exception of  non-bank financials, retail and miners (although there have been some excellent individual results for some miners). There still seem to be lots of value buys available especially for income seekers and especially for those wanting franking credits. Macro news has not been all doom and gloom lately. Volumes traded have been steadily rising since the beginning of the year.

It will be interesting to see if the XAO can break resistance at the circa 4400 mark or whether this is just a relief rally and if it retraces from there. The squeeze is on for a move either way. One the weekly chart, since the low of August, the lows have been getting higher but the highs have not been able to sustain a break out above 4400.

Good luck to all.


----------



## wintermute (26 February 2012)

It's been quite a while since I posted my long term XAO chart but I thought I'd trot out the latest iteration of it. 

I just added the CCI to it, and it seems that looking at the bottom horizontal line could be a reasonable indicator of market bottoms (or perhaps a little before) Of course being a monthly chart you aren't going to be able to make to the day calls on this, and it may only really show in hind sight. 

I've been thinking for quite a while we will see that bottom trend channel hit again and after that happens the long slow recovery will start.  based on that my personal opinion is that any recent gains is a rally which will probably end with a reversal going back to that bottom trend channel, of course I could be completely wrong  

*most* of the predictions I've made with this chart over the last 6 years though have been pretty accurate in the scheme of things.

Tony.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (26 February 2012)

I am personally rather sceptical about a sustained short-term rally.

There's quite a bit of economic data out early next week including ours, which I think will make (or more likely break) this rally.

Another potential problem might be if the PSI deal of Greece falls apart.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (26 February 2012)

Edwood said:


> looking like we might finally get a general kick higher, assuming XAO can crack this resistance.  could see a run to the 4600 area






tinhat said:


> I appreciate that many of the regulars on this forum appear to be slogging it out in the Gillard v Rudd, Gillard v Abbott discussions in other parts of these fora at the moment but, in case people haven't noticed...
> 
> It was an interesting week for the XAO. This week the XAO closed above the 200 day moving average for the first time since 1 June 2011. It did this on Tuesday and has been able to hold above the 200 day MA at close every day since. The 10 day moving average has been above the 30 and 50 day moving averages since mid January. Personally, as I am not a trader, I like to compare the 10 week MA against the 30, 40 and 52 week MA. This week the 10 week MA closed above the 30 week MA for the first time since early June 2011.
> 
> ...




Thanks E and th,

I would agree, I think this may be the start of a wave 3, then again .....

gg


----------



## wintermute (27 February 2012)

On looking at my long term xao chart again, specifically the CCI indicator every occaision that that bottom line has been hit, there has been a rally after it. Some of those rallies were short, but most were big ones.  There is currently a divergence showing. The cci has bounced off that bottom line, but there has still be some downward movement in the index.  The same thing happened just before the bottom in 2009. 

If we follow a similar pattern to 87 (which so far we have as indicated in my chart) then we could now be at the double bottom and ready to start the long slow recovery.  We could potentially be pretty close to the end of the 2007 crash.  I was pretty sure we would hit that bottom trend channel before that recovery started, however taking into consideration the CCI I'm not so sure anymore. 

World events and GFC II of course send us off on a tangent for which there are no precedents in the current chart. 

Tony.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 March 2012)

Symmetrical triangle still by far the most dominant pattern for the Ords.  However the lines have changed a bit so here's an update.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 March 2012)

Sitting squarely on the brink of a big triangle breakout (top thickened line).  The last symmetrical triangle break (inner lines) saw two revisits of the breakout line soon after, and so I'm assuming that's what will happen here again, ie.  small breakout followed by a revisit to the trendline.


----------



## nulla nulla (17 March 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Sitting squarely on the brink of a big triangle breakout (top thickened line).  The last symmetrical triangle break (inner lines) saw two revisits of the breakout line soon after, and so I'm assuming that's what will happen here again, ie.  small breakout followed by a revisit to the trendline.




The xao appears to be meeting significant resistance when it head buts the 4390 level. If it isn't Greece or one of the other over stretched soveriegn debt euro nations causing a run off in the finance sector, it is fears of a hard landing in china causing a retrace in the resources sector.

We seem destined to retrace from this level of resistance with our progress more closely linked to the fluctuations of the shanghai index than the rebounds of the djia, nasdaq, ftse and dax. 




The last two lows this year have been lower and if we don't break through the 4390 level now we are probably destined to test 4220 and lower.


----------



## Sean K (17 March 2012)

wintermute said:


> World events and GFC II of course send us off on a tangent for which there are no precedents in the current chart.
> 
> Tony.



Hi Tony. I think some of the Black Swans are factored in at the moment. We expect there to be an oil shock due to the pending US and Israel attack on Iranian enrichment facilities. An extended civil war in Syria fought by western / Iranian proxies will be a non event. Pakistan, who cares. EU breakup, blah blah blah. It's all in the mix. I feel not much can send us in a downward spiral. Bounce likely.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (17 March 2012)

kennas said:


> Hi Tony. I think some of the Black Swans are factored in at the moment. We expect there to be an oil shock due to the pending US and Israel attack on Iranian enrichment facilities. An extended civil war in Syria fought by western / Iranian proxies will be a non event. Pakistan, who cares. EU breakup, blah blah blah. It's all in the mix. I feel not much can send us in a downward spiral. Bounce likely.




Are you saying that an attack on Iran and an EU breakup are factored into the markets? I would seriously disagree.

The Australian economy has been doing poorly. All recent data has been absolutely terrible. To top it off, China is slowing down and the government is adamant to continue with it. There is no particular reason for our market to break out to the upside.


----------



## Sean K (17 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Are you saying that an attack on Iran and an EU breakup are factored into the markets? I would seriously disagree.



There is a lot of bad news factored into the charts. These are but 2. There is good news factored in also. I agree that you are serious.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (17 March 2012)

If Iran was attacked, I am fairly certain the markets would tank pretty hard. Are you suggesting there would be little or no reaction?

If there is an EU breakup, that is a financial Armageddon.


----------



## Sean K (17 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> If Iran was attacked, I am fairly certain the markets would tank pretty hard. Are you suggesting there would be little or no reaction?
> 
> If there is an EU breakup, that is a financial Armageddon.



Iran has been attacked. As has Syria. The secret wars go on. I think a decisive NATO mass assault may even be a catalyst for the market to go higher. Caveat is if that creates an oil spike. That would probably only happen if Iran chips in. Persia is a very smart country and will realise that if they go too far they are outnumbered. The US just needs the slightest reason to go all out in the Gulf. As do GB and the frogs. 

All this effects the 'technical analysis' by the factoring in of perceived future market influences. 

A 'Black Swan' would have to be an absolute monster I think.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (18 March 2012)

kennas said:


> I think a decisive NATO mass assault may even be a catalyst for the market to go higher. Caveat is if that creates an oil spike. That would probably only happen if Iran chips in. Persia is a very smart country and will realise that if they go too far they are outnumbered.




Iran is the 3rd largest producer of oil, and it is not particularly far behind Russia nor Saudi Arabia. Please explain how in the world the markets will rise if they are attacked. Markets have tanked and recessions have happened because countries which produce 100 times less oil as a proportion of the world total stopped exporting.



kennas said:


> The US just needs the slightest reason to go all out in the Gulf. As do GB and the frogs.




The US needs a war with Iran like a hooker needs aids. Not a single general in the US military thinks it is a good idea. There is simply no way in hell any conflict with Iran can go well. The US should be praying that Israel will not need help defending themselves.

Iran's first course of action is to send millions of militia into Iraq and de-stabalise the country...just as the US is pulling out.

There are just countless ways in which this is an absolute nightmare.

Iran has modern anti-aircraft weaponry. There has only been one conflict where advanced anti-aircraft weapons were used - in the history of this planet. Aircraft were basically useless in it.


----------



## tinhat (18 March 2012)

A golden cross formed on the XAO weekly chart at the close of last week. 10 week MA (green) crossing above 40 week (red).

The MACD on the weekly is almost hitting zero. If the XAO has another positive week, the MACD should cross above zero.

Weekly chart below.




On the daily chart, if the XAO holds up next week a golden cross should form too - 50 day MA (green) crossing 200 day MA (red). Note that the MACD turned positive last week.


----------



## Sean K (19 March 2012)

One of these zones/lines likely to break soon. 

I'm bearish on the world, but I think the world is more bearish.


----------



## Sean K (31 March 2012)

kennas said:


> One of these zones/lines likely to break soon.



Just poked it's head above, but will it respect the support and make it through 4500?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 April 2012)

I think another down day tomorrow to give a lower low pivot - target 4300 approx.

Then a push back up to 4370 approx.

Then back down.


----------



## Sean K (14 April 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I think another down day tomorrow to give a lower low pivot - target 4300 approx.
> 
> Then a push back up to 4370 approx.
> 
> Then back down.



Failing at the potentially bullish support line means more sideways to down for the minute. Agree with 4300 around the support line and also 200d ma. From there probably back up towards resistance but then who knows.


----------



## TrendGAIN (19 April 2012)

So folks, are through yet or not? The XAO has been much cleaner and obeying the rising support trend-line than the XJO. We have through the danger zone again and if this continues, we have to believe we are in an up-trend. The only worrying thing for me is that net volume on up days is less than met volume on down days, hence the OBV is trailing off, even though prices are moving higher. A sign of weakness? I can't find a precedent for this kind of divergence before on an the XAO so I am not sure what to make of it.


----------



## tinhat (19 April 2012)

TrendGAIN said:


> So folks, are through yet or not? The XAO has been much cleaner and obeying the rising support trend-line than the XJO. We have through the danger zone again and if this continues, we have to believe we are in an up-trend. The only worrying thing for me is that net volume on up days is less than met volume on down days, hence the OBV is trailing off, even though prices are moving higher. A sign of weakness? I can't find a precedent for this kind of divergence before on an the XAO so I am not sure what to make of it.
> ...




As Alan Kohler said on the tele tonight, the aussie share market is trending up, down and sideways. It just depends on how you read the chart.


----------



## Sean K (20 April 2012)

tinhat said:


> As Alan Kohler said on the tele tonight, the aussie share market is trending up, down and sideways. It just depends on how you read the chart.



Well, it's time periods really. 

EW is closer to telling us where we are in the cycles and should be able to give us a probability of where to next after there is a clear move here. It seems to be important to me in a mid - longer term sense.


----------



## kid hustlr (27 April 2012)

Can someone assist me with the XJO.

If I look at the intraday OHLC chart for y/d it effectively opened strong then fell away all day, yet if I look at a daily OHLC chart it gives the impression that it gapped up slightly, ran up quite a number of points then fell away.

I understand that this is due to the ASX openeing in tranches over the first 10 minutes of the day but it greatly influences the visual interpretation of the days trading. Is there away around this?


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 April 2012)

kid hustlr said:


> Can someone assist me with the XJO.
> 
> If I look at the intraday OHLC chart for y/d it effectively opened strong then fell away all day, yet if I look at a daily OHLC chart it gives the impression that it gapped up slightly, ran up quite a number of points then fell away.
> 
> I understand that this is due to the ASX openeing in tranches over the first 10 minutes of the day but it greatly influences the visual interpretation of the days trading. Is there away around this?




You have to use the SPI futs (ASX200) cash hours.


----------



## kid hustlr (27 April 2012)

Thanks TH


----------



## kid hustlr (27 April 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> You have to use the SPI futs (ASX200) cash hours.
> 
> View attachment 46871




Still struggling with it.

My understanding is the futures value will be slightly different to the cash market? 

ie if you look at the futures from 10-4 mon to friday, they don't match up with what the asx 200 is doing in the cash market exactly.

Am I correct in saying that the graph you posted shows the gaps/correct action from day to day (as it only shows the data in the hours the cash market is open) but the numbers wont correspond exactly?


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 April 2012)

kid hustlr said:


> Still struggling with it.
> 
> My understanding is the futures value will be slightly different to the cash market?
> 
> ...




Yep Futs value comes from the underlying instrument, in this case XJO less cost of carry(interest) and less expected earnings (divs). So the actual numbers are rarely the same but the % and point moves are pretty much tick for tick, give or take a few.

So ignore the absolute price levels but the pattern and point moves are correct.


----------



## TrendGAIN (28 April 2012)

If it walks like an uptrend and quacks like an uptrend, its an uptrend. Although we are only one point above the close of the breakout on the 28th of March, this thing is swinging higher. Its good to see positive volume swinging up to support the move, but it looks like we are at a short-term top. However, the SPI futures did have a good run up Friday night, so we will see what news breaks over the weekend to support, or otherwise this move.


----------



## Sean K (29 April 2012)

TrendGAIN said:


> If it walks like an uptrend and quacks like an uptrend, its an uptrend.



Quack. The resistance across 4500 from Jul 11 ish looks like next hurdle.


----------



## starman45 (6 May 2012)

On my chart, weekly resistance is just above (4532ish). If the U.S. indices had not done retracement, the resistance was already broken.


----------



## Boggo (6 May 2012)

No surprises here, just how long to get through is the question I guess !

(click to expand)


----------



## Sean K (6 May 2012)

Boggo said:


> No surprises here, just how long to get through is the question I guess !
> 
> (click to expand)



Agree, but would be even more convinced if the 4400 ish line was tested and proved support again.


----------



## Boggo (6 May 2012)

kennas said:


> Agree, but would be even more convinced if the 4400 ish line was tested and proved support again.




Agree, we need a bounce off that area.

(click to expand)


----------



## starman45 (6 May 2012)

yes, always better to have confirmation


----------



## Andruha (7 May 2012)

Not to beat into proverbial bear drum but there is a clear divergence between Volume Weighted MACD and the price action in the last 3 months. We are due for correction in the near term in my opinion.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 May 2012)

Andruha said:


> Not to beat into proverbial bear drum but there is a clear divergence between Volume Weighted MACD and the price action in the last 3 months. We are due for correction in the near term in my opinion.




Surely that squiggly line is just a showing the reduction in volatility since Sep Oct last year?


----------



## Andruha (7 May 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Surely that squiggly line is just a showing the reduction in volatility since Sep Oct last year?




I'd take it that by "squiggly line" you refer to an indicator shown. Sure there has been a reduction in volatility on the market since late last year, but the current move up seems to diverge from a number of indicators not just the one shown on the chart. Throw in Money Flow Index or even normal MACD. Sure the divergence does not necessary means correction but it surely increase the likelihood of it.

Also with MFI and VWMACD - since they are derived from volume-price action the falling indicator means falling volume even in the face of rising prices. If it was a true uptrend should the volume confirm the move?


----------



## CanOz (7 May 2012)

I'd normally use the histogram to show divergence, not the signal line.

But hey, that's just me...i honestly don't even use a MACD anymore.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 May 2012)

Andruha said:


> If it was a true uptrend should the volume confirm the move?




Why?

And are you sure that indicator actually uses volume? Can you show the formula?


----------



## Andruha (7 May 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Why?




I would personally like to see increasing or at least average volume while the price are in the uptrend as a sign of conformation. Seeing falling volume while the price are rising in the uptrend makes me cautious that is all. 



Trembling Hand said:


> And are you sure that indicator actually uses volume? Can you show the formula?




Formula is the same as for MACD only instead of using EMAs I'm using volume weighted averages.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 May 2012)

Andruha said:


> I'm using volume weighted averages.




What are they? Volume of what?


----------



## Andruha (7 May 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> What are they? Volume of what?




VWAP = Sum (daily volume x daily price)/Sum (daily volumes)

Sums are done over the period of the average (i.e. 12 day average will sum up daily volumes x daily prices over last 12 days). Daily price suppose to be a typical price but I'm using close only.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (13 May 2012)

This has been a hard slog from the bottom and if the XAO falls on Monday, I will be a net seller.

gg


----------



## CanOz (13 May 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This has been a hard slog from the bottom and if the XAO falls on Monday, I will be a net seller.
> 
> gg




Well gg, if history is anything to go by, you won't be missing anything.

Personally i will be waiting until XAO crosses back and closes above the 70 MA :beat:.

CanOz


----------



## Sean K (16 May 2012)

kennas said:


> Agree, but would be even more convinced if the 4400 ish line was tested and proved support again.






Boggo said:


> Agree, we need a bounce off that area.
> 
> (click to expand)



Nope. 

Quite a breakdown.


----------



## kid hustlr (31 May 2012)

Interesting week this week.

Intraday market has actually RISEN each day then we get smashed by overnight news, gap lower and do it all again. 

Looks like someone is trying to hold us up.

My _guess_ is they can't keep fighting the good fight for long and we could see another leg down.


----------



## CanOz (31 May 2012)

kid hustlr said:


> Interesting week this week.
> 
> Intraday market has actually RISEN each day then we get smashed by overnight news, gap lower and do it all again.
> 
> ...




hmmm no, it actually happens allot. Even in a bull trend the markets sells off during the day and trends up in the sycom session. Its all driven by the futures Kidh.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> hmmm no, it actually happens allot. Even in a bull trend the markets sells off during the day and trends up in the sycom session.




That reminds me of something I read once.   

http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2007/07/spi.html


----------



## CanOz (31 May 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> That reminds me of something I read once.
> 
> http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2007/07/spi.html




Nice to be able to back it up with data too! Nick did allot of work on this too and my open range system was basically playing on this phenomenon as well, nothing to do with the open range at all. 

CanOz


----------



## kid hustlr (31 May 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> That reminds me of something I read once.
> 
> http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2007/07/spi.html




lolol

Not like I'm gonna think of anything for myself.

edit:

In TH's blog the trend was down also

http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2008/06/index.html


----------



## Sean K (22 October 2012)

WOW, 4500 been tested, but between here and 5000 looks a massive effort to get back on an a general upward trend. If 4500 can be tested as support and survive, looks positive.


----------



## Sean K (10 November 2012)

kennas said:


> WOW, 4500 been tested, but between here and 5000 looks a massive effort to get back on an a general upward trend. If 4500 can be tested as support and survive, looks positive.



4500 short term failure. 

Could it bounce? Would be very positive.

If not. Looks poor.

For now.


----------



## starman45 (10 November 2012)

The index is rejected by resistance around 4530. It's necessary to go over this area to the resumption of the uptrend in the short term. Imho.


----------



## Sean K (11 November 2012)

starman45 said:


> The index is rejected by resistance around 4530. It's necessary to go over this area to the resumption of the uptrend in the short term. Imho.
> 
> View attachment 49627



Some decent support at 4450 ish on your chart.


----------



## Sean K (12 November 2012)

4450 ish still there, but diagonal uptrend looks gone...


----------



## nulla nulla (19 November 2012)

Are we North bound or is it too early to break out the champagne?


----------



## Sean K (22 November 2012)

Breaking 4400 looks pretty negative to me. If it doesn't win that back in the short term, then the Big Bear just keeps on giving it out.


----------



## white_goodman (22 November 2012)

kennas said:


> Breaking 4400 looks pretty negative to me. If it doesn't win that back in the short term, then the Big Bear just keeps on giving it out.
> 
> View attachment 49716




so you saying if it doesnt go up its bearish?

that area doesnt look like an area whatsoever to me


----------



## Sean K (22 November 2012)

white_goodman said:


> so you saying if it doesnt go up its bearish?
> 
> that area doesnt look like an area whatsoever to me



Bearish, as in no definite break from sideways I suppose. Looks like an area to me. But I suppose we can put circles and lines around anything we choose and turn into EW.


----------



## willstor (24 November 2012)

Opened up a very small sell CFD on the Aussie 200 as a hedge. Be very surprised to see 4450 broken this week. With a strong Aussie dollar profit taking euro budget arguments Israel conflict and the fiscal cliff resolution looking like it's built-in to the current levels I see a fall to 4380.


----------



## Joules MM1 (24 November 2012)

willstor said:


> Opened up a very small sell CFD on the Aussie 200 as a hedge. Be very surprised to see 4450 broken this week. With a strong Aussie dollar profit taking euro budget arguments Israel conflict and the fiscal cliff resolution looking like it's built-in to the current levels I see a fall to 4380.




those are specific levels based on loose anecdotes.....what is your uncle point....?.

wot did your cfd close at this morning.....


----------



## willstor (25 November 2012)

Down very slightly on the CFD. Portfolio up 6.5% last week. 
Hardly needs the huge graph to see 4450 is the new resistance , and more than likely won't be left behind this week.


----------



## Joules MM1 (25 November 2012)

willstor said:


> Down very slightly on the CFD. Portfolio up 6.5% last week.
> Hardly needs the huge graph to see 4450 is the new resistance , and more than likely won't be left behind this week.




up or down, you essentially start each session at zero, active or flat.....

price may often "look" at resistance, in other words, that's the new vpoc level, the point of volume control where one set of accounts says i'll sell each time we hit this zone, of course, each time that zone is hit it's because the accounts on the other side of that trade are taking price into that zone, otherwise, one set of accounts would exceed the supply or demand of the other side, what you might call pressure....the point is, at what point do you decide when one group applies enough pressure to trend to cause continuance? the answer is in the price and within those sizeable accounts the anecdotal ideas are already weighed and examined, i mean, the reason to be long or to close is already written by those accounts and rarely, if ever, examined and weighed correctly by the retail public....this brings you back to strictly price itself....the action you'll take at a specific level based upon price alone, not an anecdote or an abstract line on  a chart or fundamental equation that cannot be dated......

resistance takes many shapes and forms, can come in a simple form of one buyer, a final buyer, simply refusing to pay a higher price and that's how many extremes of price are formed.....we are not yet seeing a strong, larger trend degree, of lower prices, yes, we are seeing lower hourly index price but the context is the key not the price direction within a single time frame......the context of anecdotal or fundamental ideas is far less reliable from a timing perspective than most traders admit, but, what it most definitley does, imhe, is cause a trader to slip unwittingly into an emotional logic that they find themselves defending to their own detriment......

again, IMHE


----------



## kid hustlr (27 November 2012)

My Opinion -the XJO




So after a series of higher highs and higher lows we had our first stumbling block as the XJO hit its first hurdle  posting a lower high and then subsequently fell back to circa 4350 where it again found support. In the grand scheme of things I don't perceive it to be a reversal but perhaps just a retracement or a signal that we are moving back into a consolidation zone. No where does it look like we will fall back to the 4000 mark IMO. I think any dips from here are chances to buy to open. 

As joules says though 3 days can change a lot but with the bond market still pricing in more cuts (see here) Most of the big cap stocks will continue to look appealing as fundies and investors continue their never ending quest for yield.

Given the yield on the ASX 200 is as good as you will find at any bank right now, I believe investors will continue to turn to riskier assets over time (albeit slowly), the ASX trailing P/E is also still below 15 and looks to have bottomed signalling an appetite for risk




Zooming out to the weekly and whilst the top was a bad sign, the long white week immediately following the long week down is a rejection of the lower prices IMO and a sign that buyers are willing to swamp sellers. The last several days supports this theory. The more I look at this chart the more I believe we won't test 4300 anytime soon.




Finally the old TH indicator. (Advance-Declines Chart, 10 day Avg)




I'm not sure what to make of this one to be honest. The lower highs suggest to me a fall in momentum yet as it stands this market is nowhere near overbought. The snap back from 16th November low was pretty convincing as well but I think ultimately this chart leaves me a little skeptical. I think it further supports that we are in a consolidation phase and we can expect some sideways movement.

After looking at all the data I believe we will be range bound for the next several months. Buy the dips (4300's) and sell soon after, then reverse and repeat. Keep the holding periods short. I think long term the risk is to the upside.

Just my 2c


----------



## George Washingto (27 November 2012)

kid hustlr said:


> My Opinion -the XJO




Where do you source the ASX P/E ratio and div yields from?


----------



## Joules MM1 (27 November 2012)

kid hustlr said:


> My Opinion -the XJO
> 
> 
> 
> ...




tops, good reading....

another 2c to go in the pot: 




i dont think the data within is enough to paint the true bigger picture, although, enough for short range context.....easier looking backwards, i know.....i think there's a lot more detail in there to had and that's dependant on what's being traded, for mine, trading the xjo with this data is a very good idea if i can tell the "story" within....


----------



## tech/a (27 November 2012)

Nice work Kid

Enjoyed the read.
Agree upside particularly shorter term.


----------



## kid hustlr (27 November 2012)

George Washingto said:


> Where do you source the ASX P/E ratio and div yields from?




RBA website

http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/by-subject.html

J,

You're a weapon, more food for thought.

52 week highs & lows would be interesting but I'm not sure where to find the data (without paying for it)


----------



## brty (27 November 2012)

> 52 week highs & lows would be interesting but I'm not sure where to find the data (without paying for it)




Is this what you are after?

http://www.afr.com/rw/AFR/Web/Tables/Share_Tables_Daily/2012-11-27/IIryda121127.xls


----------



## Joules MM1 (28 November 2012)

healthy or not...the smalls just seem to go the wrong way month over month, all excuses aside


----------



## tinhat (28 November 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> healthy or not...the smalls just seem to go the wrong way month over month, all excuses aside







The XSO and XJO crossed over in May 2012. The XSO is in black and the XJO is in blue. So what does this say? The market is still risk off but there has been a flight to high yielding defensives. The big four banks, TLS. The NBN deal with TLS has been the catalyst for its turn around. CSL is going through the roof based on rerating of its fundamentals and earnings outlooks. Those companies make up a large weight of the XJO and despite BHP and RIO going in the other direction probably account for much of the rise in the XJO.

The market at the moment is being driven by the yield play. Ye Olde Retires are finding out that interest rates have fallen significantly as their term deposits expire. Its the old money in the bank versus in bank shares play. NAB is still offering fully franked grossed up yield of 10% with its share price languishing at 1998 levels.

The US fiscal cliff will need to be resolved before the market goes risk-on again. As Dr Doom Roubini says - when central banks hand out printed money it has to end up somewhere. Who knows where the next bubble will be; but if the reality of Europe and the USA remains massive structural government deficits funded by central bank money printing then that money is going to find need to find somewhere to go - productive or not.


----------



## Joules MM1 (28 November 2012)

i might be waiting on side of mountain with mouth wide open for roast chicken to fly in......but....you get the idea....




https://twitter.com/joulesmm1/status/268517607848689664/photo/1


----------



## Sean K (28 November 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> i might be waiting on side of mountain with mouth wide open for roast chicken to fly in......but....you get the idea....



I like it. That will take us back to the 09 low, yes? Might have to sell my pants to get in around there.


----------



## Joules MM1 (29 November 2012)

kennas said:


> I like it. That will take us back to the 09 low, yes? Might have to sell my pants to get in around there.




the invoke of the old proverb is about the continuance of the divergent signals where (in the chart) the XSO fails to make confirming H/H's against the XJO

todays news....

11:30am 	AUD 	

Private Capital Expenditure q/q

		forecast 2.1% 	previous 3.4%


----------



## willstor (30 November 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> up or down, you essentially start each session at zero, active or flat.....
> 
> price may often "look" at resistance, in other words, that's the new vpoc level, the point of volume control where one set of accounts says i'll sell each time we hit this zone, of course, each time that zone is hit it's because the accounts on the other side of that trade are taking price into that zone, otherwise, one set of accounts would exceed the supply or demand of the other side, what you might call pressure....the point is, at what point do you decide when one group applies enough pressure to trend to cause continuance? the answer is in the price and within those sizeable accounts the anecdotal ideas are already weighed and examined, i mean, the reason to be long or to close is already written by those accounts and rarely, if ever, examined and weighed correctly by the retail public....this brings you back to strictly price itself....the action you'll take at a specific level based upon price alone, not an anecdote or an abstract line on  a chart or fundamental equation that cannot be dated......
> 
> ...




Thanks for this - I was wrong on the 4450  too


----------



## Joules MM1 (30 November 2012)

....xjo now has 10 sessions without a close below the previous cash sessions low which is a nice run up thus far, much as one can ask of a bull run within a corrective phase....

prepare for a barrage of mutual fund advertising......"looking at this chart, over the long run....."


----------



## nulla nulla (30 November 2012)

Nice bounce. From what I've seen volumes are low. Still got a long way to go. A break above 4540 would be good. Probably due for a mini correction soon.


----------



## Joules MM1 (1 December 2012)

view from the round window




a lof indecies appear slightly overheated, not the locals

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/11/30/bespokes-global-market-snapshot.html



> Below is an updated look at our global market snapshot, which highlights the one-year trading range charts for the major indices of the twenty largest countries by market cap around the world (ex-US).  In each chart, the light blue shading represents the index's "normal" trading range, which is between one standard deviation above and below the 50-day moving average.  The red zone represents between one and two standard deviations above the 50-day moving average, while the green zone represents between one and two standard deviations below the 50-day.  Moves into or above the red zone are considered overbought, while moves into or below the green zone are considered oversold.
> 
> While the market here in the US has bounced nicely over the last two weeks, the S&P 500 remains below its 50-day moving average.  Most countries shown below are trading above their 50-days, and quite a few are even overbought.  The overbought countries include Australia, Hong Kong, France, Germany, India, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, Sweden and Switzerland.  And while not overbought, Taiwan, the UK, Singapore and Spain are at the top of their trading ranges.
> 
> There are a few countries that aren't doing so well, however.  These include Malaysia, Russia and China.  China looks the worst by far.


----------



## kid hustlr (1 December 2012)

brty said:


> Is this what you are after?
> 
> http://www.afr.com/rw/AFR/Web/Tables/Share_Tables_Daily/2012-11-27/IIryda121127.xls




Partly. That would be one day's worth of data. There's a couple of charts on these forums which show what I'm after but unfortunately I don't have the data at my disposal (for now).

This is an example of what I'm after.


----------



## Joules MM1 (1 December 2012)

KH, continuing on with our convo about the 10 day view.....be good to see a regular posting on this and your thoughts if you care to take the time once a week or f/n......it makes for good perspective, imho.....

i notice the thread has a few search engine eyes-on recently and am sure a few are keen to keep upto date with this stuff

first time viewers should consider adding their names to the ASF list


----------



## >Apocalypto< (3 December 2012)

pull back on the cards imo over extended into a supply area. 4450 downside.


----------



## kid hustlr (7 December 2012)

I am currently out of the market.

7/12/12




It's been a long time since equities have looked this good relative to the risk free cash market. Given the RBA's cut this week retail is once gain being encouraged to jump into the market as the reward for taking on risk is now at nearly 2.00% (unfranked), almost where it was at during the GFC low and we all know the bounce we saw from that.




I think today was a bit of a weird one as given the price action earlier in the week many would have been expecting at least a pullback, then we have a strong open and bang go the shorts and all of a sudden we are through the short term resistance.

Joules Spoke last week about the internal distribution and the divergence in the market breadth which eventually led to the hard sell off half way through October. Since then we have had a very hard bounce and are now back near the recent highs in October. On a shorter basis I think the market breadth has effectively 'recycled itself' as the big players were probably able to distribute before the fall and then jumped back in near the 4350 mark and prepped themselves for another short stint. Maybe we will get that Xmas rally after all?

On a longer term basis it's the same story though. More and more money going into less and less stocks which can't be a good sign. The ASX200 is weighted very top heavy and as such it may take a while to play out but surely there has got to be a change to the status quo at some stage.


----------



## notting (7 December 2012)




----------



## Sean K (8 December 2012)

white_goodman said:


> so you saying if it doesnt go up its bearish?
> 
> that area doesnt look like an area whatsoever to me



WG, back here I was saying 4400 ish looked like the bottom of an 'area'. It did manage to take that back pretty quickly and then run. Pretty positive move really.


----------



## Sean K (20 December 2012)

If 4500 has really been beaten then it should just be churning from here to 5000.


----------



## Joules MM1 (21 December 2012)

ruh-roh....the cab driver just slammed into reverse both the XUJ and XSO (small ords)

i'm watching for any genuine signs of daily top on the XSO to see if it precedes a daily top on the xao/xjo which it has repeatedly

see:
https://twitter.com/joulesmm1/status/268517607848689664/photo/1




edit; the easy proviso on the XSO is the metals selling...


----------



## notting (21 December 2012)

I have no access to news at present.
Did something just happen?
Market just shot backwards after being strong all morning


----------



## burglar (21 December 2012)

notting said:


> I have no access to news at present.
> Did something just happen?
> Market just shot backwards after being strong all morning




NAB, BHP & RIO shot backwards ... I don't know anything else.


----------



## skc (21 December 2012)

burglar said:


> NAB, BHP & RIO shot backwards ... I don't know anything else.




Dummy spat on fiscal cliff...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...te-on-boehner-s-tax-plan-lacking-support.html


----------



## notting (21 December 2012)

Thanks for that.
Thought there may have been something more substantial like the end of the world.


----------



## Logique (30 December 2012)

Dow Jones chart, but influential for the XAO.
A big fall in the latest session, and now threatening the 200 EMA (distortion in a 3 month chart - only 90 days).


----------



## tech/a (30 December 2012)

Spent a bit of time on this looking at the *Daily* (Micro) and *Weekly* (Macro) analysis.

It fits well in both time frames.
Its possible the Fiscal issues in the US of A may take sometime to grab.
As such its likely the patterns could play out.
I really think a *BULL TRAP* is a high probability.

*Click to expand*

*Daily*




*Weekly*


----------



## brty (30 December 2012)

Tech/A, lines drawn on charts can be so arbituary. The following is also just a price channel which I prefer showing a rise above the channel, a potential breakout from the channel...




My channel appears to intersect more points than yours, does that make it more reliable? Never really bothered with channels personally.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (30 December 2012)

brty said:


> Tech/A, lines drawn on charts can be so arbituary. The following is also just a price channel which I prefer showing a rise above the channel, a potential breakout from the channel...
> 
> View attachment 50168
> 
> ...




Can you provide some volume on your chart, brty.

gg


----------



## tech/a (30 December 2012)

brty said:


> Tech/A, lines drawn on charts can be so arbituary. The following is also just a price channel which I prefer showing a rise above the channel, a potential breakout from the channel...
> 
> View attachment 50168
> 
> ...




Like all analysis it will be proven correct or in correct.
Semantics of correctly drawn lines are of little meaning I have found.
Point is we have a ranging market on a very slight rising bias.
If you were trading it you would either be looking for a breakout
of a channel or be long in a breakout of a channel and with a stop at or below the channel.

*But long term* I see a great short of around 1500-2000 ticks coming up this year.


----------



## brty (30 December 2012)

GG, same volume as on Tech/A's chart, they are the same chart with different lines drawn. Both being XAO.


----------



## kid hustlr (2 January 2013)

XJO continues on its merry way

XMJ and XFL both posting a higher high

Also the XSO with a VERY long range up bar to break through recent resistance.

All on daily charts

Not sure how to interpret the (lack of) volume.

Apologies for no charts I have no time.


----------



## brty (2 January 2013)

Tech/A, apologies, I did not see your reply earlier.



> Semantics of correctly drawn lines are of little meaning I have found




Agree entirely, I was just highlighting that the same data can have different interpretations.

On this topic though..


> But long term I see a great short of around 1500-2000 ticks coming up this year.




If you refer to ticks here as being points on XAO, I'd like to know your reasoning. I have a different perspective in that a large rise this year is possible. I base part of my reasoning from the following data from Wren Research. It being the All Ords or its closest equivalent backdated for over 100 years.

http://www.wrenresearch.com.au/download/files/mxaoi.csv

Since 1900, the AOE (All Ordinaries Equivalent) has never failed to make a run for the previous high within 6 years of the record high. In 1929 the high of 52 was passed in 1934, in 1951 the high of 139 was passed in 1957 when the high reached 140, in 1970 the high of 431 was approached in 1973 with a high of 422 followed by being passed in 1979 with a high of 479. Even the 1987 high of 2249 was approached in 1993 with a high of 2174, before the double top in early 1994 of 2260.
So the question is whether the economic conditions in this country are worse than at any time in the last 113 years? To that question I can only answer no.

Coupling the historic perspective with the declining interest rate environment, plus the relatively high dividends available, with franking credits, then it is easy for me to see a large rise in our market this year, especially as no-one is expecting it.


----------



## tech/a (2 January 2013)

You may be right.

But the solution offered up by the USA to solve their problems is way way short.

As problems compound a solution becomes more remote and more un palatable.

Eventually the dam will break taking everyone with it including us---China/Europe 

It's all brewing nicely.
I don't think you'll see this exuberance long lived
Realization is close by I reckon a day or two will do it

But while it's bullish then ride it.


----------



## CanOz (2 January 2013)

tech/a said:


> You may be right.
> 
> But the solution offered up by the USA to solve their problems is way way short.
> 
> ...




Sell the news ya reckon...

We've had no exuberance though.....unless i missed it...

CanOz


----------



## tech/a (2 January 2013)

It's subtle
60 pts today
Approaching highs of 18 mths (5000 ish)
Oh and more coming.


----------



## Julia (2 January 2013)

tech/a said:


> But the solution offered up by the USA to solve their problems is way way short.
> 
> As problems compound a solution becomes more remote and more un palatable.
> 
> Eventually the dam will break taking everyone with it including us---China/Europe



I'd have thought so too.  But we seem to be seeing a global acceptance of sticking more band aids on the problem.
It reminds me of all the assurances when the subprime tentacles were extending out further and further that Australia was and always will be decoupled from what happens in the rest of the world.


----------



## Sean K (3 January 2013)

tech/a said:


> Spent a bit of time on this looking at the *Daily* (Micro) and *Weekly* (Macro) analysis.
> 
> It fits well in both time frames.
> Its possible the Fiscal issues in the US of A may take sometime to grab.
> ...



Tech, interesting that you're combining comments on fundamentals with EW at the moment. I didn't think they were relevant and mutually exclusive?

Your count here looks similar to posts made around early 2009 where a W4 was imminent and we were heading to the last leg of the downtrend to 2500 or something. 

Bull Trap a 'high probability'? 

Maybe a possibility.


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2013)

tech/a said:


> It's subtle
> 60 pts today
> Approaching highs of 18 mths (5000 ish)
> Oh and more coming.



Approaching 4920 tech.

Pushed this level at least 6 times over the past 4 years, and failed. 

Maybe this time. Or not.

If it gets through and tests it as support, may need a review of the 'bottom'.


----------



## tech/a (25 January 2013)

Yes Kenna's
Thought Id up date.
Pretty colours

*Click To Enlarge*



	

		
			
		

		
	
!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 January 2013)

tech/a said:


> Yes Kenna's
> Thought Id up date.
> Pretty colours
> 
> ...




Thanks tech and agree. Am awaiting the 3 of 1 2 3 with gumnuts. 

gg


----------



## Edwood (20 February 2013)

good solid run / extension of sorts, and getting overbought.  Looking like its going to blow off


----------



## pixel (20 February 2013)

Edwood said:


> good solid run / extension of sorts, and getting overbought.  Looking like its going to blow off




Weekly chart suggests we could see 5200 soon; that would double the range of last FY 11-12.
But just like there has been a drop-off in May and June last year, I wouldn't be too optimistic about a High Close come June this year either. A "Blow-off" could just about do it


----------



## Sean K (20 February 2013)

tech/a said:


> Yes Kenna's
> Thought Id up date.
> Pretty colours



Thanks. If the 5000 region is now tested as support, could be an interesting platform.

Until the free and cheap money dries up and the economy has to actually function again...


----------



## Struzball (20 February 2013)

kennas said:


> Until the free and cheap money dries up and the economy has to actually function again...




Though there's plenty of real money tied up in useless things like bonds, term deposits and gold. So yeah, once that all goes into stocks and dries up we might be near some sort of top.


----------



## chops_a_must (25 February 2013)

Take this FWIW but many of the heavyweights are at or near their all time highs, when you look at individual charts.

I'd expect a pull back in financials, which could see a slide in the asx.

But some leaders like CBA have broken out.

Good signs IMO, as a move out if bonds looks like its going on.

But a bit of resistance in these parts, or even more of a breakout.

I also think investors now have much more of an idea about the health of individual companies and stocks which is having a significant positive impact.


----------



## metta87 (26 February 2013)

Hello, first post here and maybe a dumb question but where do you get the XAO charts ? I ve been looking online for them but it seems that I just cant find them. Any help will be very appreciated, thanks.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 February 2013)

metta87 said:


> Hello, first post here and maybe a dumb question but where do you get the XAO charts ? I ve been looking online for them but it seems that I just cant find them. Any help will be very appreciated, thanks.




They're absolutely everywhere on the net.  

Sometimes the code is different.

Try Yahoo Finance, code ^AORD


----------



## burglar (26 February 2013)

metta87 said:


> Hello, first post here and maybe a dumb question but where do you get the XAO charts ? I ve been looking online for them but it seems that I just cant find them. Any help will be very appreciated, thanks.




http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EAORD+Interactive#symbol=^aord;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;


----------



## chops_a_must (28 February 2013)

Any thoughts?

Looking bullish to me.


----------



## tech/a (28 February 2013)

Like pulling up a train with your feet out of the door.

6% in 2 mths is unsustainable.

May is the big crunch when the US reaches it's debt ceiling again.


----------



## gordon2007 (28 February 2013)

I agree, but still no denying those of us who sat this out thinking it was false run missed out on a fantastic 4 months. 



tech/a said:


> Like pulling up a train with your feet out of the door.
> 
> 6% in 2 mths is unsustainable.
> 
> May is the big crunch when the US reaches it's debt ceiling again.


----------



## tech/a (28 February 2013)

Have done ok Gordon.
Set short twice so far only to be stopped out at B/E 
But that's trading.


----------



## CanOz (28 February 2013)

The warning signs are there...volatility is not normally bullish, and we have divergence on a new high....

CanOZ


----------



## tinhat (28 February 2013)

CanOz said:


> The warning signs are there...volatility is not normally bullish, and we have divergence on a new high....
> 
> CanOZ




Thanks CanOZ, don't want to be the party police but this is the analysis thread - charts and random lines chaps. The XAO banter thread is the chew the fat thread.


----------



## CanOz (1 March 2013)

tinhat said:


> Thanks CanOZ, don't want to be the party police but this is the analysis thread - charts and random lines chaps. The XAO banter thread is the chew the fat thread.




Ooops, sorry no random lines


----------



## tinhat (2 March 2013)

CanOz said:


> Ooops, sorry no random lines




Fear not, I present for your consideration some random lines.




My question to the tech analysts is this. We are hearing banter from the commentariat about the huge amount of money "still sitting on the sidelines" and that is supposedly coming into the market in what is suppose to be "the great churn". Looking at the weekly chart of the XJO we can see that while volumes rose all the way through the boom and crash and bounce of 2006 to mid-2009, since then volume has been falling (I meant to chart the XAO but did the XJO instead). Volumes on average seem to have fallen even since the Greek Debt Crisis slump of mid last year.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Should we be expecting to see volume pick up if this bull run is to continue further into the year? Should we accept that the rise in volume associated with the last boom/bust is something that we won't see again for quite some time?


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 March 2013)

tinhat said:


> Volumes on average seem to have fallen even since the Greek Debt Crisis slump of mid last year.
> 
> Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Should we be expecting to see volume pick up if this bull run is to continue further into the year?




No actually the volume is very healthy. You cannot compare current market (gentle Bullishness) to crises levels. That was "unhealthy" volume as people lost their heads and dollars. You don't want to see that volume again if you are long.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 March 2013)

CanOz said:


> The warning signs are there...volatility is not normally bullish



 ATR will rise by 20 % if the index rises by 20%.



CanOz said:


> and we have divergence on a new high....



Not yet as you cannot say that this move has turned to produce a lower high on the indicator.... ld: Tech/A 101 CanOz


----------



## CanOz (2 March 2013)

@TinHat..........You're basically trying to compare to phases of volume, one increasing and one decreasing with several regime changes...7 maybe? Bull to bear...

To me, the volume on this latest leg of the bull run, compared to other bull run could be more meaningful.

whats even more useful, is if the up days have more or less volume than the down days. IF a rally is to continue it should have more volume to support it....

Volume is still increasing, but so is volatility now, the first warning sign...watch the volume. Once the volume supporting higher prices dries up, the volume supporting lower prices will accelerate.



Interesting discussion.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz (2 March 2013)

> ATR will rise by 20 % if the index rises by 20%.



 No, look at the chart. In a bull market volatility drops as the index rises.



> Not yet as you cannot say that this move has turned to produce a lower high on the indicator.... ld: Tech/A 101 CanOz



 yup, but it did make a new high and the indicator didn't...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz (2 March 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> No actually the volume is very healthy. You cannot compare current market (gentle Bullishness) to crises levels. That was "unhealthy" volume as people lost their heads and dollars. You don't want to see that volume again if you are long.





Agree, volume is still supporting the move....


----------



## kid hustlr (2 March 2013)

Do these so called 'black pools' have an influence on volume also? If they are transacted off market do they even show up?


----------



## CanOz (2 March 2013)

I'll post a couple of charts of the SPI intra-day with volume as it relates more with price. The SPI is of course the ASX S&P 200 futures contract...still relevant to the discussion but different constituents.

For the sake of the discussion if you accept that "value is where the majority of volume is" then the concepts are easier to understand.

The first chart show the value areas stacked on top of each other....a "trend"

The second chart show where we are now, with value areas overlapping each other, a "bracket"

While this method of analysis does not attempt to predict where the market will go next it does try to give clue where to look for acceptance and rejection of "value". This in turns can give us an idea of which side of the market is less "risky" to be involved in, short or long.

There are overnight "Extended" sessions here (ETH) as well as regular treading hour (RTH). Generally speaking price must be "accepted" in RTH as well as ETH.

The sessions that are wider are ETH and the narrower ones are the regular sessions. 

Some notable points are:

A.) This Range extension is a huge counter trend sell off, not typically associated with bull markets
B.) Price made a new high, at the value area high (VAH) of the RTH on the 28th
C.) Price tested the highest volume area (VPOC), overnight and rejected it
d.) Value areas are being formed lower, so value is being accepted lower 
as we bracket

**The last overnight (ETH) session is not included but price closed near the 5072 area. I need a custom session template for this contract.

*TH - If you have a custom session for the SPI, can you post it? Thanks!*

We are not trending any more, we are bracketing, value areas are overlapping and are not stacked on top of each other.

Price can do three things:

1.) We an continue to bracket, testing the extremes of the bracket without finding responsive buyers on the high, or responsive sellers on the lows 5097 and 5045 then 5018. A test of the upper bracket could find responsive sellers and drive the price to the other side of the bracket. Same with the lower side, if we don't find responsive sellers then buyers could push the market to high side of the bracket.

2.) We can test the top of the bracket and find responsive buyers and accelerate higher out of the bracket.

3.) We can test the lower side of the bracket and find responsive sellers and accelerate lower.

So, some key numbers for Monday:
5097 the high
5088 - key level to watch for responsive sellers
5072-75 the mid point
5045 - lower extreme of current bracket

5018 - Untested Value area (VPOC)

The last chart is a range chart showing how the volume dried up on the last push higher....5098

Lets see what Monday brings...

CanOz


----------



## chops_a_must (2 March 2013)

tinhat said:


> My question to the tech analysts is this. We are hearing banter from the commentariat about the huge amount of money "still sitting on the sidelines" and that is supposedly coming into the market in what is suppose to be "the great churn". Looking at the weekly chart of the XJO we can see that while volumes rose all the way through the boom and crash and bounce of 2006 to mid-2009, since then volume has been falling (I meant to chart the XAO but did the XJO instead). Volumes on average seem to have fallen even since the Greek Debt Crisis slump of mid last year.
> 
> Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Should we be expecting to see volume pick up if this bull run is to continue further into the year? Should we accept that the rise in volume associated with the last boom/bust is something that we won't see again for quite some time?




Volume looks pretty good and pretty comparable with this level previously.

The other thing. I think the volume is from the industry. I'm not sure it is yet retail investors getting in.

Compare the daily posts in the this place now compared to 6-7 years ago. That'll let you know.


----------



## danielday (4 March 2013)

Looks like a top is in here, at least short term. It has been a super run up to this point!


----------



## notting (6 March 2013)

It's not really technical Analysis but it is interesting.
XJO adjusted to currency vs DOW
Who sais theres further catch up?


----------



## white_goodman (6 March 2013)

notting said:


> It's not really technical Analysis but it is interesting.
> XJO adjusted to currency vs DOW
> Who sais theres further catch up?
> 
> View attachment 51212




even if there was difference, one is price weighted, other cap weighted


----------



## kid hustlr (7 March 2013)

Just to follow up from this post  (post 9026). It seems I was pretty close however the risk to the upside happened a lot quicker than I was expecting and we have really taken off from there. Some 100 days later and the picture is looking a little different.

Firstly the longer term picture:

It's a shame I don't have more data for some of these chart's to provide a little more perspective but I think they still give a pretty good feel.




On a P/E basis stocks are now much more expensive than they were say 12-18 months ago. That's not to say valuations can't run a lot higher as they clearly have in the past, its just one thing to be aware of.




The 'chase for yield' has certainly done it's job as the ASX now yield almost 1% lower (before franking) than it did this time last year. 




The 'Risk Premium' of holding stocks is still decently appealing thanks to the RBA's series of cuts in the later months of last year.

When compared to the analysis 3-4 months ago these charts aren't as supportive towards being long stocks. That being said none of them suggest we are 'overbought' and the reward for holding risk does seem to be relatively appealing.




The Weekly XJO brings up the question of seasonality. The old adage of 'don't sell when it drops, sell when it doesn't come back as high' has proven difficult over the last several years because the initial drop has been so severe. We are definitely due for a pullback (although one could have made that argument for a while) yet the high volatility of several weeks ago was met with strong buying support and to me this is a very bullish sign.




The magic oscillator is still not overbought and it hasn't been for a long time. On a longer term basis it does suggest this rally is getting thinner and thinner yet divergences can be very difficult to trade. Until we get a serious overbought level on this chart it points to up.


----------



## kid hustlr (7 March 2013)

..cont




This chart is the big one for me. On a longer term basis everyone knows healthcare/industrials and the heavy weighting of the banks have really outperformed in the last 12 months. Above is the materials and the XSO. The materials are a heavy portion of the index and to me that looks toppy or at best stagnant. ditto the XSO. If these two indexes maintain their current trend then we are relying on less and less stocks to drag us higher. This is supported in the breadth chart above. 

So what does it all mean? Who knows. Long term investors have missed the boat in my opinion. That being said if I had to take a position right now I would be long rather than short. Seems to me there is some steam left yet but continued divergence on the breadth coupled with the index constituents slowly falling by the way side are bad signs. Short term i believe its up we go but medium to long term I'm unsure now. a low low on the XFJ would scare the life out of me though.


----------



## chops_a_must (7 March 2013)

Some awesome work there!


----------



## CanOz (7 March 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> Some awesome work there!




Agree Kid Jason Leavitt does the market internal every weel for the US, not dis-similar to your work.

CanOz


----------



## tech/a (7 March 2013)

*Getting close now.*

Click to expand




*And for those who like Geometry.*


----------



## tech/a (7 March 2013)

*So would you?*


----------



## CanOz (7 March 2013)

inverted XAO, fair point...


----------



## tech/a (7 March 2013)

CanOz said:


> inverted XAO, fair point...




XJO but yeh


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 March 2013)

One thing that fascinates me about upside down charts is that most of them don't look "right".  Without being able to quantify what it is, they look wrong somehow.  There's a huge untapped market inefficiency lurking somewhere in a deep dark pool!


----------



## CanOz (7 March 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> One thing that fascinates me about upside down charts is that most of them don't look "right".  Without being able to quantify what it is, they look wrong somehow.  There's a huge untapped market inefficiency lurking somewhere in a deep dark pool!




Very true....

Well GB, one thing that's obvious is that the declines are slow, and the inclines are fast. The opposite of a normal market!

To me, that's what makes it look so strange.

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 March 2013)

CanOz said:


> Very true....
> 
> Well GB, one thing that's obvious is that the declines are slow, and the inclines are fast. The opposite of a normal market!
> 
> ...




There should be a way to exploit that, but I can't think how.  Any ideas?


----------



## skc (8 March 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> There should be a way to exploit that, but I can't think how.  Any ideas?




The way to exploit what? The upside down chart looking strange?

If you are talking about exploiting the difference in slope between rises vs falls, you'd probably need a strategy around some volatility-based instrument (options).


----------



## sinner (8 March 2013)

CanOz said:


> Very true....
> 
> Well GB, one thing that's obvious is that the declines are slow, and the inclines are fast. The opposite of a normal market!
> 
> ...




It's important to understand the link between volatility and compound returns...


> t is important to note that risk premiums- or the relationship between required higher rates of return for higher risk- are arithmetic. That means that the curious underperformance of high risk stocks/assets versus low risk stocks/assets probably has less to do with a hidden risk factor or behavioral bias, but rather the fact that we are compounding our wealth



http://cssanalytics.wordpress.com/2...link-between-volatility-and-compound-returns/


----------



## Struzball (8 March 2013)

tech/a said:


> *So would you?*
> 
> 
> View attachment 51243




I'd be averaging down


----------



## kid hustlr (8 March 2013)

skc said:


> The way to exploit what? The upside down chart looking strange?
> 
> If you are talking about exploiting the difference in slope between rises vs falls, you'd probably need a strategy around some volatility-based instrument (*options*).




I think this is the concept of option skew? Option prices reflect that stocks fall at a fast rate than they rise.


----------



## tech/a (8 March 2013)

Struzball said:


> I'd be averaging down





97% of domestic traders do.
3% *ARE* making money 97% are gambling that they *MAY* make money.




kid hustlr said:


> I think this is the concept of option skew? Option prices reflect that stocks fall at a fast rate than they rise.




What??


----------



## Struzball (8 March 2013)

tech/a said:


> 97% of domestic traders do.
> 3% *ARE* making money 97% are gambling that they *MAY* make money.




Yes, the goal would be to "lose" money, inverted chart wise.
Basically that chart highlights why not to average down in an actual falling market, I was poking fun at averaging down.

I've been wondering about value investors, in a falling market the lower the price goes, the better the fundamentals look, and the more money is lost.  
Would it be correct that the higher the market goes the worse the fundamentals?  Because the fundamentals are clearly u/s at the moment, I'm curious how much worse they will get.  

My conclusion, buy into crappy fundamentals for gain.


----------



## CanOz (8 March 2013)

```

```



Struzball said:


> I'd be averaging down




Imagine having to take the pain for twice as long! Even so cynical would throw in the towel!

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 March 2013)

I can see us back at 5030 soon.  Yesterday and today both weak bars rejecting new highs.


----------



## tech/a (8 March 2013)

Struzball said:


> Yes, the goal would be to "lose" money, inverted chart wise.
> Basically that chart highlights why not to average down in an actual falling market, I was poking fun at averaging down.
> 
> I've been wondering about value investors, in a falling market the lower the price goes, the better the fundamentals look, and the more money is lost.
> ...




This whole question was played out at length with ducati a few years ago.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2829

If Duc had averaged down as his fair value stocks fell he would have blown up sooner.
I liken the exercise to So Cynical and Robustas threads.
Both still in the process.
Both a little better managed (Portfolio wise) Than Duc's.

I'm sure you'll find it interesting reading.


----------



## Ves (8 March 2013)

tech/a said:


> If Duc had averaged down as his fair value stocks fell he would have blown up sooner.



Guy buying "fundamentally sound" oil, mining and other small cap specialities blows up his account.  Disapproves value investing & averaging down forever.


----------



## skc (8 March 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I can see us back at 5030 soon.  Yesterday and today both weak bars rejecting new highs.






> Since January 05 the SPI has gained a sum total of only 241 points during the day trading session. While the market has gone up 2500 points!!! All of the gain has come in the overnight gaps.  Most of the day moves are filling and fading around the general trend




http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2007/07/spi.html


----------



## chops_a_must (8 March 2013)

skc said:


> http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2007/07/spi.html




What has been unusual though is that in a lot of markets, they have been trending higher from open.

There is still a lot of strength in the buying, and most down days, or small gaps are still getting bought.


----------



## tech/a (8 March 2013)

Ves said:


> Guy buying "fundamentally sound" oil, mining and other small cap specialities blows up his account.  Disapproves value investing & averaging down forever.




Well you'd expect in a screaming Bull market he'd at least stay solvent.

There are many traders Technical and fundamental who cant turn a profit.
They are too hung up on the *What* (mechanics---value investing---breakout trading---mean reversion) than the *Why* (what you do---how ever you do it ) a method could have a chance to be/will be profitable.


----------



## CanOz (8 March 2013)

I guess we should try and stick to the topic, Technical Analysis of the XAO.

CanOz


----------



## McLovin (8 March 2013)

tech/a said:


> Well you'd expect in a screaming Bull market he'd at least stay solvent.
> 
> There are many traders Technical and fundamental who cant turn a profit.
> They are too hung up on the *What* (mechanics---value investing---breakout trading---mean reversion) than the *Why* (what you do---how ever you do it ) a method could have a chance to be/will be profitable.




I think in large part most people try something and if they don't get instant results they toss it out and try and find the next method. They end up searching for something that doesn't exist, usually sold in book form. What I see the successful TA and FA guys on here as having in common is that they picked one method and stuck with it.

If you check out the threads started by ducati, it's pretty clear which camp he/she sits in...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/search.php?searchid=942627

The only thing missing would appear to be tea leaves.

And to keep this on topic, I see a trapazoid forming in the XAO with a small sun bear dancing on top of it...


----------



## sinner (8 March 2013)

tech/a said:


> Well you'd expect in a screaming Bull market he'd at least stay solvent.




Value performance is directly correlated to the dispersion between value performance and growth performance. That is to say, you can and often do suffer a large drawdown in value portfolios during a "screaming Bull market". 

As an example, Buffett took a ~40% drawdown during the tech boom. Does that make his portfolio style incorrect? Should he have liquidated his holdings in profitable value stocks and purchased shares in "growth" companies like Pets.com or Geocities like everyone else?



> From June 30, 1998 to February 29, 2000, Berkshire lost 44% of its market value


----------



## McLovin (8 March 2013)

sinner said:


> As an example, Buffett took a ~40% drawdown during the tech boom. Does that make his portfolio style incorrect? Should he have liquidated his holdings in profitable value stocks and purchased shares in "growth" companies like Pets.com or Geocities like everyone else?




The SP of Berky went down, the book value of the businesses in BRK didn't.


----------



## tech/a (14 March 2013)

I'm noticing many stocks closing out of my discretionary system I'm trading with PAV.
Also fewer triggering and even fewer prospects.
A sign a change of sentiment is very near.

Chart indicates that's the case.
One last gasp in it possibly before its down to wave 4 of 5
Looking for that last bullish push of exhaustion (UP).

Click to expand.


----------



## qldfrog (14 March 2013)

my own "system" today switched on its "prepare for the storm" mode,
The system is not mature enough to be fully trusted but I will be extra careful from now on
(some key inpouts are EMA/MA of XAOA based on optimised run valid for the last 20y or so, in case you ask...)
DYOR but be warry.


----------



## CanOz (14 March 2013)

Our volume trend is continuing, i guess we can now say we have divergence on our indicator too...

CanOz


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 March 2013)

CanOz said:


> Our volume trend is continuing, i guess we can now say we have divergence on our indicator too...
> 
> CanOz



As I said earlier on another thread, XAO may tank in May, to the beginnings of a new bull.

Your chart indicates great care is required at present.

Thanks.

gg


----------



## chops_a_must (15 March 2013)

tech/a said:


> I'm noticing many stocks closing out of my discretionary system I'm trading with PAV.
> Also fewer triggering and even fewer prospects.
> A sign a change of sentiment is very near.
> 
> ...




Hi Tech.

What is PAV?

It could be forming a reverse pennant, which have been pretty good at precipitating falls.

More thoughts in the banter thread.


----------



## tech/a (15 March 2013)

*PAV* is one of these.




As you maybe aware PAV has been working hard on his discretionary trading in the Hypothetical
trading thread.
He approached me for help---and despite my "Ill never Mentor" anyone I have been working with PAV this year on a portfolio not only covering entries/exits but most importantly Trade and portfolio management an area I felt needed attention---not only for PAV but every serious Trader/Investor Here.

Pav will tell you how its been.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 March 2013)

I think if I had a short position, I'd be holding on.

I expect today we will finish at 5082, (according to trend line).

The big downwards swoops tend to come after a lower low has been formed and we don't have that yet.


----------



## Sean K (15 March 2013)

tech/a said:


> I'm noticing many stocks closing out of my discretionary system I'm trading with PAV.
> Also fewer triggering and even fewer prospects.
> A sign a change of sentiment is very near.
> 
> ...



So, EW has called a bottom back in Mar or so 09?


----------



## rnr (15 March 2013)

For those interested in divergence!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 March 2013)

rnr said:


> For those interested in divergence!
> 
> View attachment 51336




Interesting chart, especially for me the Parabolic SAR.

Can you whack an RSI on to it and repost.

And remember we are trending, so, be careful about your conclusions.

I must say I cannot see divergence on volume/price.

An ascending triangle does catch my eye though.

As always I would advise to watch price and volume.

gg


----------



## pavilion103 (15 March 2013)

tech/a said:


> *PAV* is one of these.
> 
> View attachment 51330
> 
> ...





It has been of huge benefit. 
I am grateful for the tremendous opportunity and I have been diligent in saving every chart (including trade management) and every piece of advice in my trading files.

The portfolio itself has performed very strongly and Tech's knowledge has been something that I have benefited from greatly.


----------



## rnr (16 March 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Interesting chart, especially for me the Parabolic SAR.
> 
> Can you whack an RSI on to it and repost.
> 
> ...




Hi GG,

The attached chart is as submitted above (minus comments on Bullish Hidden Divergence) with an RSI (Close,14) whacked on as requested. Given the previous chart didn't include an indicator to gauge divergence then perhaps the divergence will now be more obvious (i.e. Price v's Indicator)!

Oh, some bad news, the "Parabolic SAR" is a 30 period weighted moving average, which given the chart snap posted and lack of labels you would not have known.




rnr


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 March 2013)

rnr said:


> Hi GG,
> 
> The attached chart is as submitted above (minus comments on Bullish Hidden Divergence) with an RSI (Close,14) whacked on as requested. Given the previous chart didn't include an indicator to gauge divergence then perhaps the divergence will now be more obvious (i.e. Price v's Indicator)!
> 
> ...




Thanks rnr,

I see your point about the divergence now.

Thanks mate, I'll compute, 

gg


----------



## tech/a (16 March 2013)

I like to see some confluence
The XJO and DJIA.

Click to expand.


----------



## notting (16 March 2013)

Stating the obvious for the unschooled - 

I would have liked to see a little less conviction in the buying on Friday, if I was looking for a interim top, noting the high close and in particular *the volume* on the XJO.

And the divergence on the 21st almost looks like a computer glitch more than a reflection of exhaustion, I know it's there but just seems a bit aggressive.


----------



## nulla nulla (18 March 2013)

Todays market reaction to the Cyprus bailout requirement of a 10% levy on bank deposits is like Henny Penny running arround squawking "the sky is falling, the sky is falling".

Lets face it, Cyprus has a GDP and population lower than Tasmania. The wiikipedia stats for Cyprus are as follows:

GDP $24.949 billion (nominal, 2011 est.)[3]
$23.728 billion (PPP, 2011 est.)[3] 
GDP growth −3.3% (Q4 2012 est.)[4] 
GDP per capita $30,571 (nominal, 2011 est.)[3]
$29,074 (PPP, 2011 est.)[3] 
GDP by sector agriculture 2.3%, industry 16.4%, services 81.2% (2011 est.) 
Inflation (CPI) 1.6% (February 2013)[5] 
Population
below poverty line 23.5% (0.2 million) at risk of poverty or social exclusion (2011)[6] 
Gini coefficient 29 (2005) 
Labour force 414,100 (2011 est.) 




Anyone realisticly expect a correction (downward) from this point or a recovery?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 March 2013)

Depending on where you draw your lows, we now either have a lower low or are about to form one.


----------



## tech/a (19 March 2013)

I see today as significant.
The impulse reversal bar continued today after a shallow morning rally.
Yesterdays bar is in control and price to the upside will find this bars range resistance.
It did today and we saw price make a lower low.


----------



## CanOz (19 March 2013)

tech/a said:


> I see today as significant.
> The impulse reversal bar continued today after a shallow morning rally.
> Yesterdays bar is in control and price to the upside will find this bars range resistance.
> It did today and we saw price make a lower low.




Chart?


----------



## tech/a (19 March 2013)

CanOz said:


> Chart?




On my computer I'm in a pub.


----------



## CanOz (19 March 2013)

tech/a said:


> On my computer I'm in a pub.




Okay...i'll post one for ya...don't say i never did anything for ya though!

(I'd give my left gonad to be in a pub in Adelaide having a nice greasy mixed Grill right now...washed down with a McLaren Vale red or two)


----------



## Joules MM1 (19 March 2013)

CanOz said:


> Okay...i'll post one for ya...don't say i never did anything for ya though!
> 
> (I'd give my left gonad to be in a pub in Adelaide having a nice greasy mixed Grill right now...washed down with a McLaren Vale red or two)




you prob would be giving a gonad after that indignant attack on your own gullet.....


----------



## CanOz (19 March 2013)

Joules MM1 said:


> you prob would be giving a gonad after that indignant attack on your own gullet.....




Errr...chart?


----------



## sreeve (29 March 2013)

I am very cautious about the current market. There has been many false breakouts at 5000 on XAO previously. I believe this time is likely no different.

A quarterly-candle perspective:



~ Scott


----------



## tech/a (30 March 2013)

At important times in the market often bourses and individual stocks will show very similar patterns.
Here the XJO and the DJIA still mirror similar topping pasterns.

*Click to expand*


----------



## Logique (4 April 2013)

Not a sophisticated analysis, weekly XAO. The oscillators say caution, although a strong uptrend behind it. However sreeve's support level, in post two above, is certainly a possibility, the index has run a long way above the 50wk EMA.


----------



## baby_swallow (4 April 2013)

Is that a break of H&S on XJO??? .....(noice !!!)



https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/asset.php?fid=50583&uid=34845&d=1365054656


----------



## nysefloortrader (10 April 2013)

Logique said:


> Not a sophisticated analysis, weekly XAO. The oscillators say caution, although a strong uptrend behind it. However sreeve's support level, in post two above, is certainly a possibility, the index has run a long way above the 50wk EMA.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




kool chart. 

Its kinda funny in a way because I just went back and had a look, the XAO breadth charts are now all on a SELL or NEGATIVE position. 

Now...here is the interesting thing. 

1) normally on the all ords a correction is about 800 pts or so on average. 

2) Lets take your chart and a top in march - 800 gets right back down SMACK BANG to those averages ....and VIOLA.....this seems to be adding up well. 

Very interesting.


----------



## CanOz (10 April 2013)

nysefloortrader said:


> kool chart.
> 
> Its kinda funny in a way because I just went back and had a look, the XAO breadth charts are now all on a SELL or NEGATIVE position.
> 
> ...




Why don't you post a freebie Sentiment Trader, lets see those breadth charts, share the love


----------



## burglar (10 April 2013)

nysefloortrader said:


> ... and VIOLA ...




VIOLA


----------



## Boggo (10 April 2013)

CanOz said:


> Why don't you post a freebie Sentiment Trader, lets see those breadth charts, share the love




Good idea, we are all mates on here (unless you see us as likely customers - nah - you wouldn't be thinking that).


----------



## sinner (10 April 2013)

Boggo said:


> Good idea, we are all mates on here (unless you see us as likely customers - nah - you wouldn't be thinking that).




Check out that blog! I read the Bitcoin article, and I was wondering how come it seemed so familiar, well its just ripped off content from actual journalists and bloggers.

Not to mention "Sentiment Trader" is already an established business in the US http://www.sentimentrader.com/ featured on ZH and mentioned by Dr. Brett Steenbarger once or twice.


----------



## chops_a_must (10 April 2013)

sinner said:


> Check out that blog! I read the Bitcoin article, and I was wondering how come it seemed so familiar, well its just ripped off content from actual journalists and bloggers.
> 
> Not to mention "Sentiment Trader" is already an established business in the US http://www.sentimentrader.com/ featured on ZH and mentioned by Dr. Brett Steenbarger once or twice.




I'm more worried about what's happening to the poor trannie.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 April 2013)

Banks - 'cup' and continuation.
Telcos - continuation.
Big Resources - top of downsloping channel, at resistance.
Gold stocks - blip upwards, still on the nose imo.
XAO - double bottom breakout yesterday.

Bullish

Remember when Brian from Family Guy did this dance?  :bananasmi  That was a good episode.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 May 2013)

It's all very bullish isn't it?  

Quite a few tight flag/pennant set ups happening (BHP, ILU).  Some cup/handles (WOW), triangle breakouts looming (CBA).  Lots of continuations (QBE).


----------



## tinhat (14 May 2013)

Happy Days

XAO back to the mean.



Broken Resistance. Will it remain above the 50% fibonacci retracement?



Broken Resistance. Will 5000 be the new support?



If the XAO can find support around 5,000 then it is happy days ahead. I can't see the market getting too exuberant from here - not with an election looming in September. The market has re-rated risk and pushed down yields and pushed up PEs fairly high given the low earnings growth of a lot of the blue chips. Hopefully it will be slow and steady recovery. The initial catalysts for continue bullishness might be a correction of the AUD, recovery or stabilization of commodity prices in the medium term, commodity export volumes increases in the pipeline, a pick up in global growth and a pick up in domestic company earnings.

Previous major Bear Markets.
Date of top - date reached again.
Sep 87 - Jan 94 (6y 3m)
Jan 70 - Sep 79 (9y 9m)
May 51 - Sep 57 (6y 4m)
Mar 37 - Nov 45 (8y 8m)


----------



## VSntchr (14 May 2013)

Thanks for the charts Tinhat. Interesting!


----------



## nysefloortrader (14 May 2013)

VSntchr said:


> Thanks for the charts Tinhat. Interesting!







Above is the weekly chart of the ALL ORDS.

As you can see longer term we are = BULLISH

On the shorter time frame the bears are receiving no love = BULLISH and at new highs. 

yes ok, I agree with anyone that says we are overbought, but still no sell signals on the chart. 

Normally on the XAO we do get one nice correction each year. So far in 2013 that has not happend. But if it does, that will be a good entry. 

As said before XAO does have a habbit of dropping 800 or so points. So that would be a good entry. We have not seen that yet, but maybe later in the year. 

I would not be surprised to see the all ords alot higher by the end of this year being 2013. Just a guess. Hope it helps.


----------



## VSntchr (14 May 2013)

Is that measured in USD?


----------



## brty (14 May 2013)

NYT,

The all ords is clearly not at all time highs, your chart does not go back far enough, please do more research before stating such things.


----------



## burglar (15 May 2013)

brty said:


> NYT,
> 
> The all ords is clearly not at all time highs, your chart does not go back far enough, please do more research before stating such things.




Hi brty,

Quite right, I checked it the other day as the DJIA was at all time high.
And I was surprised!


----------



## Struzball (15 May 2013)

brty said:


> NYT,
> 
> The all ords is clearly not at all time highs, your chart does not go back far enough, please do more research before stating such things.




Nobody said anything about all time highs. Short term, higher highs, higher lows, bullish.


----------



## Boggo (15 May 2013)

Struzball said:


> Nobody said anything about all time highs. Short term, higher highs, higher lows, bullish.




Huh ?

From nysefloortrader above


----------



## Struzball (15 May 2013)

Boggo said:


> Huh ?
> 
> From nysefloortrader above




Oh ok, I wasn't looking at the picture


----------



## Ann (24 May 2013)

Nice retrace testing the long term support/resistance line of 5027 on Thursday.


----------



## tech/a (28 May 2013)

tech/a said:


> Yes Kenna's
> Thought Id up date.
> Pretty colours
> 
> ...





A few months early but feel its looking ominous
See how the test of the recent high goes if it goes at all.


----------



## pavilion103 (28 May 2013)

Does look ominous. 

I'm wondering if there will be much of a test or not.

A break below around 4800-4850 could  be brutal.


----------



## Logique (28 May 2013)

Thanks Tech. My analysis is more primitive, but I thought I'd put it up for interest sake.


----------



## Country Lad (28 May 2013)

Being a simple country lad, I avoid all that u-beaut technical stuff and simply say that if this is a double top, we could be for an interesting ride with our shorts.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Ann (28 May 2013)

If the XAO continues its correction, will the rising support from June 2012 be strong enough to bounce the retrace?


----------



## Sean K (28 May 2013)

Ann said:


> If the XAO continues its correction, will the rising support from June 2012 be strong enough to bounce the retrace?



I think that support line is tenuous by itself Ann, but probably is in line with the other horizontal support. 

As has been indicated, breaking down through 4800-4850 looks ordinary.


----------



## Sean K (28 May 2013)

tech/a said:


> A few months early but feel its looking ominous
> See how the test of the recent high goes if it goes at all.
> 
> View attachment 52458



Tech, the chart above this one indicates a three wave draw back to 4600, then up again. So, breaking down through those support lines leads us to that support line for an EW buy opportunity?


----------



## Ann (29 May 2013)

kennas said:


> I think that support line is tenuous by itself Ann, but probably is in line with the other horizontal support.
> 
> As has been indicated, breaking down through 4800-4850 looks ordinary.




LOL yes Kennas ordinary would be one word to use if the XAO breaks through the 4800-4850! I am salivating already at the buying ops! However I think that rising support from 2012 may be the best we will do with the immiment retrace of the DOW!


----------



## tech/a (30 May 2013)

Classic technical setup.

Click to expand




These are little gems for position traders.


----------



## Ves (30 May 2013)

I hope you're right Tech/A.  I have been waiting patiently for some of the "Weak" money to be flushed out of the index.


----------



## notting (30 May 2013)

There are a lot of technical things happening.  However the US markets are not showing quite the weakness that ours are.  We have this odd situation where the $ is being sold off not because of the resource slowdown. It's all to do with the rate decisions which are trying to make us as loose as everyone else!  Where playing catch up there and all of a sudden the unhedged international money is panicking out of our market.  The  money could come flying back in just as fast with rates turn around!  Oh and the banks which have been doing most of the lifting have gone ex dividend catalysing moves when technical get triggered due to that.  I think we wanna just whatch a little longer.
Markets are not gummed up any more.  There's no real threat to 'companies.'  The sovereign thing is under control with printing.  No inflation.  It's not a recepie for a stampede!


----------



## tinhat (31 May 2013)

tech/a said:


> Classic technical setup.
> 
> Click to expand
> 
> ...




For those of us that are quite illiterate about technical analysis can you please take a little time to write a sentence or two of narrative to explain what you are showing with the chart? I would really appreciate it. There are those of us who are quite ignorant that could benefit if you just explained a bit what you are showing us. It might seem obvious to you but it is not to me.

1. what is the signal you are detecting?
2. What is it about the bars or pattern and/or volume that is giving you the signal? Is there something about today's spread? That there was a tail that dragged

I checked the market a few times today. I've got a whole swag of stocks that are so close to stop loss I could be out of a lot of stocks in the next few days. I've already hit stop loss triggers on a few. The market fell below 4900 today but closed above 4900. I'm keeping my eye on the XAO closing above 4900 and not dipping below 4880 during the day.

Cheers.


----------



## Sean K (31 May 2013)

tinhat said:


> For those of us that are quite illiterate about technical analysis can you please take a little time to write a sentence or two of narrative to explain what you are showing with the chart? .



Google technical analysis flag and pennant.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/flags_and_pennants.php


----------



## kid hustlr (31 May 2013)

I can't post a chart right now but that was absolutely absurd into the close for the SPI futures. 

They swept it down like 50 points right on the cash close lololol.

Does option expiry have anything to do with this?

My guess is a whole bunch of fund managers selling for the quarter? Huge MOC selling? Could be a serious bearish signal?

All just speculation of course


----------



## Bronte (31 May 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> I can't post a chart right now but that was absolutely absurd into the close for the SPI futures.
> 
> They swept it down like 50 points right on the cash close lololol.
> 
> ...




SPI not closed just yet our kid.
End of month 'Sell Off' 
5000 contracts.  Phew!
Did you get any of it ?


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 May 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> My guess is a whole bunch of fund managers selling for the quarter? Huge MOC selling? Could be a serious bearish signal?
> 
> All just speculation of course




Fundies don't do that. hedgies on the other had......


----------



## skc (31 May 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> I can't post a chart right now but that was absolutely absurd into the close for the SPI futures.
> 
> They swept it down like 50 points right on the cash close lololol.
> 
> ...




Option expiry was yesterday. Today it's MSCI rebalance. But I am not sure either one of them had anything to do with it.

They (whoever they are) managed to push CBA down 40c between last trade and close, and BHP down 20c.

Crazy way to finish the month.


----------



## CanOz (31 May 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> I can't post a chart right now but that was absolutely absurd into the close for the SPI futures.
> 
> They swept it down like 50 points right on the cash close lololol.
> 
> ...




Sounds like a trading system in that Kid...End of Month...


----------



## Bronte (31 May 2013)

CanOz said:


> Sounds like a trading system in that Kid...End of Month...



Hi CanOz, In the original 'Trading the SPI' thread we covered this topic. (approx. 8 years ago now)


----------



## CanOz (31 May 2013)

Bronte said:


> Hi CanOz, In the original 'Trading the SPI' thread we covered this topic. (approx. 8 years ago now)




Hi Bronte, figured it sounded familiar!


----------



## Bronte (31 May 2013)

You do have a very good memory.


----------



## kid hustlr (31 May 2013)

Bronte said:


> Hi CanOz, In the original 'Trading the SPI' thread we covered this topic. (approx. 8 years ago now)




Can you link to the post? I found the thread but it's super long, if you can even guide me to which part of the thread (roughly middle/end/beginning) ill find it.

As I said, I assume it has something to do with month end? MOC orders to sell, gives a massive imbalance to the sell side in the equity market and then the arb bots trigger the futures down?


----------



## kid hustlr (31 May 2013)

Bronte said:


> SPI not closed just yet our kid.
> End of month 'Sell Off'
> 5000 contracts.  Phew!
> Did you get any of it ?




No I didn't but hopefully you did?



Trembling Hand said:


> Fundies don't do that. hedgies on the other had......




Yep fair point, wasn't so much the players involved so much as me speculating on what had happened.


----------



## Bronte (31 May 2013)

Not exactly sure, early we think kid.
The thread was actually started on 13th July 2005 at 07.31 AM


----------



## Bronte (31 May 2013)

Bronte said:


> Not exactly sure, early we think kid.
> The thread was actually started on 13th July 2005 at 07.31 AM




'Trading the SPI' Original (ASF) 
Linked to my signature below.....

Actually started life on: 04-01-2004 02:06 PM on another forum.


----------



## nulla nulla (3 June 2013)

It looks like the support line isn't holding and we are still trending down. Off shore investors taking their money and going home, the US economy supposed to be improving and the threat of Quantative Easing being scaled down. The chart doesn't go back far enough to show the next support level. I would be interested to hear opinions as to how long this correction will last and how low it may go.


----------



## Ann (3 June 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> It looks like the support line isn't holding and we are still trending down. Off shore investors taking their money and going home, the US economy supposed to be improving and the threat of Quantative Easing being scaled down. The chart doesn't go back far enough to show the next support level. I would be interested to hear opinions as to how long this correction will last and how low it may go.
> 
> View attachment 52580





Hi Nulla Nulla, you can extend the time period on the upper bar of your chart where it says 'display periods'.

Anyway it appears you were suggesting around the 4600 level, I think you got it right. Pulling right back to 2005 I can see a potential support/resistance line running to the 4600 level. I have added a short term rising support but as I said on my chart I doubt it will offer a whole lot of support.


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 June 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> Yep fair point, wasn't so much the players involved so much as me speculating on what had happened.




If your pay is marked to market at the end of the month and you are well in profit why not smash it a few extra basis points 5 min before said "MTM". :


----------



## Country Lad (3 June 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> I would be interested to hear opinions as to how long this correction will last and how low it may go.




I've got it as 4780 after 4860.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## nulla nulla (3 June 2013)

Ann said:


> Hi Nulla Nulla, you can extend the time period on the upper bar of your chart where it says 'display periods'.
> 
> Anyway it appears you were suggesting around the 4600 level, I think you got it right. Pulling right back to 2005 I can see a potential support/resistance line running to the 4600 level. I have added a short term rising support but as I said on my chart I doubt it will offer a whole lot of support.
> 
> View attachment 52583





Thanks Ann. I guess I was being a bit lazy using a six month display period instead of a three year one. I mainly wanted to get some feed back as to where this correction may be going.


----------



## nulla nulla (5 June 2013)

Colin Twigg of Inredible Charts offers this balanced perspective on our current market position:

The ASX 200 also encountered buying pressure, with a hammer candlestick at the primary support level of 4900. Recovery above 5000 would indicate the correction is over, but breach remains as likely and would confirm the primary down-trend suggested by bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow.


----------



## tech/a (5 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> Classic technical setup.
> 
> Click to expand
> 
> ...




4660 Likely for this move.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 June 2013)

*4774* - should be support here.  Relief rally time?  Should pause at the very least.  Low risk entry unless the close is <4770.


----------



## tech/a (6 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> *4774* - should be support here.  Relief rally time?  Should pause at the very least.  Low risk entry unless the close is <4770.




Agree
Its at the point of the first wave 5 extension on my chart.
Would like to see a strong bar off the spike low.As I have a short term long FTSE trade in play.
a few ticks from stop at close!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> Agree
> Its at the point of the first wave 5 extension on my chart.
> Would like to see a strong bar off the spike low.As I have a short term long FTSE trade in play.
> a few ticks from stop at close!




I'd also prefer a strong candle for tomorrow to confirm.  25 point run up from the intraday low is not all that convincing and follow through tomorrow is looking less likely by the hour.


----------



## tech/a (6 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'd also prefer a strong candle for tomorrow to confirm.  25 point run up from the intraday low is not all that convincing and follow through tomorrow is looking less likely by the hour.




Agree again.
Most unusual!


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'd also prefer a strong candle for tomorrow to confirm.  25 point run up from the intraday low is not all that convincing and follow through tomorrow is looking less likely by the hour.




You wouldn't think the XAO is going too far higher with the AUD taking it in the neck since this time yesty. Thats money flowing away from the game of the last 6 months.


----------



## tech/a (6 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> Agree again.
> Most unusual!




That I agree again.


----------



## CanOz (6 June 2013)

4800 seems a tad sticky....


----------



## Joe Blow (6 June 2013)

Folks, you can find the missing posts from this thread over at the XAO Banter Thread.

This thread is for XAO technical analysis only. General XAO commentary can continue over at the banter thread.

Thanks!


----------



## nulla nulla (6 June 2013)

Joe Blow said:


> Folks, you can find the missing posts from this thread over at the XAO Banter Thread.
> 
> This thread is for XAO technical analysis only. General XAO commentary can continue over at the banter thread.
> 
> Thanks!




Is there a link? Oops sorry, found it.


----------



## Joe Blow (6 June 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> Is there a link?




I linked to it in the above post, but here it is again: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461


----------



## nulla nulla (6 June 2013)

You are quick Joe, but my edit was quicker... Missed it by that much .


----------



## chops_a_must (7 June 2013)

If someone can put up a AUD/USD correlation chart with the index, that would be good.

That appears to have been quite a good leading indicator over the last 12 months about where our market is heading.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 June 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> If someone can put up a AUD/USD correlation chart with the index, that would be good.
> 
> That appears to have been quite a good leading indicator over the last 12 months about where our market is heading.




Nah not really. That carry trade correlation feel to bits over the last 1 1/2 years. Just as the main stream media started to use the "risk on/off" term. Though its cleraly been the play for the last two weeks.




ASX200 in red (SPI)
AUSUSD in black.


----------



## chops_a_must (7 June 2013)

Cheers.


----------



## sinner (7 June 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> That appears to have been quite a good leading indicator over the last 12 months about where our market is heading.




Isn't it generally the other way around? You have to make sure you price the "market" in USD if you're going to compare it to AUDUSD. Even on the monthly chart, you can see in 2007/2008, 2010 and 2011 the market leads downside by a monthly close at least (if not much more, like in 2007).




There is a paper out there on using "risk" currency pairs (specifically tested was AUDUSD) as a hedge against equity longs due to this lag shown above. I didn't really buy it. To me it seems this kind of hedge really just has the effect of repricing your equity long in a different currency, which can't actually protect a position in real terms.


----------



## nulla nulla (8 June 2013)

The falling Aud$ makes our share market unattractive to off-shore investors and the money continues to flow out, probably back to the US where investors are keen to get into the "recovering" market. 





Personally I think they are creating another bigger bubble for themselves. However our market continues to fall as a result of their activities. 




Maybe the previous resistance level of 4600 can become a support level, otherwise we are at risk of testing 4350 or there abouts. Alan Kohler makes an interesting comparison of the fall of the All Ords compared to the US S&P500 charted in US$. It tends to put the extent of our retraction in comparison to the US in a more accurate perspective.

http://www.eurekareport.com.au/graphs/list


----------



## CanOz (8 June 2013)

Looking at the TPOs for the SPI contract you can see the "P" formation from short covering.

I'm guessing the market will try and test at least the midpoint at 4773, if not the prior session POC at 4752. If the market tests these and rejects then the short term auction to the upside should continue. 

If 52 fails then we should test 4728. IF we can test lower and reject then we could see value accepted in the 4771 area, then higher to test 4848 again...lets see...

The day session TPOs have the slate grey background and the nite sessions the black...before the last bracket (range) on the 4th, the market was generally in balance during the overnight US sessions, and was extending the range during the day sessions. That now has changed and we are seeing a tendency to balance during the day and range over night...not sure what that means other than we are having more volatility during the US session...given this, will we bracket during the day and then test those areas overnight as the US tests its key levels again?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz (12 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> Looking at the TPOs for the SPI contract you can see the "P" formation from short covering.
> 
> I'm guessing the market will try and test at least the midpoint at 4773, if not the prior session POC at 4752. If the market tests these and rejects then the short term auction to the upside should continue.
> 
> ...




Well we tested the midpoint and a three ticks below in the ETH session of the SPI. The next day saw us open and close below that midpoint in what was a very balanced day. So value was accepted lower, then in the ETH session we have broke lower again, then closed right at the prior recent low of 4725. We have since tested the value area low, but not the overnight low yet. We are currently accepting value at 4725 ish in a slow Asian session. Totally expecting a blance day in RTH today. Perhaps we'll get another test of the low though in ETH in Europe.

The SPI looks pretty weak and another move up will need a bit of solid bracketing here i reckon. If we do break higher, then 4798 would be a potential target.

Looking at the daily bar chart its not unimaginable to think that 4540-4500 will come into play...

By the way this is the SPI, more closely related to the XJO, still very relevant and this thread is used more than the XJO.

CanOz


----------



## mr. jeff (13 June 2013)

Having broken that possible support this morning, what are the probabilities of a rebound on that level before close - the news seems like the market could not get much worse which is always a possible sign for a short term rebound.
Jobs figures just out didn't budge the chart much...


----------



## Trembling Hand (13 June 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> Having broken that possible support this morning, what are the probabilities of a rebound on that level before close - the news seems like the market could not get much worse which is always a possible sign for a short term rebound.
> Jobs figures just out didn't budge the chart much...




The rest of Asia is getting a right royal flogging - China -3.3 %, Japan -4.6 %, Honkers -3%. For the Aussie to be where it is* is* a rebound.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 June 2013)

I think so too jeff.  Big up day due.   Banks leading the way.

Looking mainly for oversold stocks as the main movers for this short run.... if it happens that is.

Maybe mining and engineering services.  What sector can bounce hardest?


----------



## tech/a (13 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> 4660 Likely for this move.




Boom Boom.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> Boom Boom.




Looks ok at the moment.  How about another EW chart for a possible upside target?  I'm thinking 4800 absolute max.


----------



## Chris45 (13 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> Boom Boom.




Congratulations! Your calls are very impressive. 

6 months up and 1 month down is a fairly common sequence and we've had 6 months up to 15-May now 1 month down (nearly) to ~62% retracement ... Gann and Elliott working well together so far.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I think so too jeff.  Big up day due.   Banks leading the way.
> 
> Looking mainly for oversold stocks as the main movers for this short run.... if it happens that is.
> 
> Maybe mining and engineering services.  What sector can bounce hardest?




WOR, DOW, ANG, SKE, LEI all did well.


----------



## mr. jeff (14 June 2013)

I have closed my short on QBE and looking for the reversal of the XAO to resume trend down towards 45 - 4600
Bit dangerous at this stage with no obvious short term overhead resistance until 4800.
Comments from US Fed coming as well which can affect the market.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 June 2013)

I reckon there's another ~40 odd points in it to 4787.


----------



## mr. jeff (14 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I reckon there's another ~40 odd points in it to 4787.




You picked it right on the money.
I have picked up a short and looking for a retrace shortly.


----------



## qldfrog (14 June 2013)

tech.a what is your position on today's surge???
I actually closed some looser (better today than yesterday with 2.7% up) and bought some cheaper BEAR.
have we seen the bottom or was it a nice chance to exit


----------



## coolcup (16 June 2013)

In my view, the recent price action on the ASX 200 confirms that a sustained break above resistance at 5,000 remains unlikely and that the medium term trading range of between 4,000 and 5,000 points remains intact. In the absence of damaging news out of Europe, Japan or the US, the market should trade in the upper half of that range. I only see the correction deepening to the bottom half of the trading range if a further "credit" event occurs or if the pace of the wind-back in US quantitative easing (QE) is faster than expected. I still feel that the economic recovery in the US, while encouraging, remains tentative at best and I don't think Ben Bernanke would risk shaking the hard-won emerging confidence in that economy through a drastic reduction in QE.


----------



## tech/a (16 June 2013)

qldfrog said:


> tech.a what is your position on today's surge???
> I actually closed some looser (better today than yesterday with 2.7% up) and bought some cheaper BEAR.
> have we seen the bottom or was it a nice chance to exit




Sorry just saw this.

*Click to expand.*

The ABC is in Green a little hard to see.
Where the current 1/2/3 are.





Concurring to a degree with Coolcup.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 June 2013)

4787 now = 23.6% retrace.

Looks like it has legs.  Hope so.  Big round number ahead.


----------



## qldfrog (17 June 2013)

thanks for the comments Gentlemen.
Time will tell ..


----------



## Ves (17 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> Sorry just saw this.
> 
> *Click to expand.*
> 
> ...



Tech/A  is this wave count valid as long as it stays under 4900  (wave 1 bottom)?


----------



## tech/a (17 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Tech/A  is this wave count valid as long as it stays under 4900  (wave 1 bottom)?




Yes.
Wave 4s normally start with a deep retracement towards 1
And ideally they form a triangular pattern.(Wave 4)
Really early days here.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 4787 now = 23.6% retrace.
> 
> Looks like it has legs.  Hope so.  Big round number ahead.




Round number broken is significant.  I'll say 4871 now, which is 90% of the size of move of the greatest distance from the trendline on the down leg.  What a shakeout this morning.imp:


----------



## Muschu (17 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> Yes.
> Wave 4s normally start with a deep retracement towards 1
> And ideally they form a triangular pattern.(Wave 4)
> Really early days here.




Early days is an excellent way of expressing it Tech.  How much of this little bounce is due to the financials?  Is it possible, technically, to isolate this sector?

I see no good reason to jump into anything at this time.  Mind you I am not a speculative investor.

Regards

Rick


----------



## tech/a (17 June 2013)

Muschu said:


> Early days is an excellent way of expressing it Tech.  How much of this little bounce is due to the financials?  Is it possible, technically, to isolate this sector?
> 
> I see no good reason to jump into anything at this time.  Mind you I am not a speculative investor.
> 
> ...




Blue is the XJO
Very correlated


----------



## mr. jeff (18 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> Yes.
> Wave 4s normally start with a deep retracement towards 1
> And ideally they form a triangular pattern.(Wave 4)
> Really early days here.




Looks like the retrace is happening. Yesterday was unfortunately a surprise to me - over eager.
I expected the upswing to only last Friday.
Short was looking very threatened yesterday.
Now pulling back - whilst would like to see T/A's target in the mid term, looking for 4560 at first.


----------



## sinner (18 June 2013)

Muschu said:


> Early days is an excellent way of expressing it Tech.  How much of this little bounce is due to the financials?  Is it possible, technically, to isolate this sector?
> 
> I see no good reason to jump into anything at this time.  Mind you I am not a speculative investor.
> 
> ...




XFJ is the S&P ASX 200 Financials index.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 June 2013)

*543* decline vs *245* advance.


----------



## mr. jeff (20 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> *543* decline vs *245* advance.




4740 Could well be the resistance that holds today, may need a bit of encouragement from overnight markets to help the next leg start. Thoughts ? It has certainly pushed down today.


----------



## MrBurns (20 June 2013)

I'm not technical at all but my read is that it will bounce around a but but continue down primarily because there is no sustainable good news coming from anywhere, the chickens are coming home to roost.


----------



## CanOz (20 June 2013)

How long after it bounces do ya reckon it takes to find some good news??


----------



## MrBurns (20 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> How long after it bounces do ya reckon it takes to find some good news??




I've just consulted the spoon handles and candles, checked my tea leaves and spun anti clockwise 3 times

No good news in sight.


----------



## CanOz (20 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> I've just consulted the spoon handles and candles, checked my tea leaves and spun anti clockwise 3 times
> 
> No good news in sight.




Good to see you're practicing Mr.B


CanOz


----------



## MrBurns (20 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> Good to see you're practicing Mr.B
> CanOz




I'm right into this now


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 June 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> 4740 Could well be the resistance that holds today, may need a bit of encouragement from overnight markets to help the next leg start. Thoughts ? It has certainly pushed down today.




I don't really have much of a feel for things today.  Got out at open (stocks) and just watching for now.


----------



## tech/a (20 June 2013)

Update

*XJO*

Classic


----------



## kid hustlr (21 June 2013)

Futs off 81 pts overnight

Interesting to see what happens during our cash session today. RIO/BHP both approaching major support levels, considering they are a huge part of the index if they break through it could be bombs away (again)


----------



## CanOz (21 June 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> Futs off 81 pts overnight
> 
> Interesting to see what happens during our cash session today. RIO/BHP both approaching major support levels, considering they are a huge part of the index if they break through it could be bombs away (again)




BHP is on the measured move now...


----------



## tech/a (21 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> Update
> 
> *XJO*
> 
> Classic




Showing signs that this could develop into a classic
wave 4 pattern Lower highs possibly a down sloping 
triangle before completing this move.

Expect the bounce in US tonight and here as well.
Value buyers are getting into those Screaming Buys!!


----------



## coolcup (23 June 2013)

I see risk of further downside for the ASX 200. It has tested previous support levels which are now new resistance at 4,900 and is headed for a test of the new support level 4,700. The Aussie dollar is key, if it keeps sliding, offshore investors will keep pulling money out and the market will continue to fall in my view...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 June 2013)

Potential double bottom.  Breakout (4841) would seem unlikely but you never know.


----------



## tech/a (24 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Potential double bottom.  Breakout (4841) would seem unlikely but you never know.




*GB*
As Country Lad has pointed out to you.
A bouble bottom isnt simply price printing twice at the same point.

What we are seeing is a *TEST* of the most recient significant low.
How price reacts to the test will "indicate" what is likely to happen 
in the "Next Chapter" of the book.


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 June 2013)

Might get some end of year tax loss selling this week too. If I was an evil hedge fund I'd be accumulating any down ticks and do an almighty walk up with the futs on Friday to lock in my bounus at mark-to-market. That used to one of their games back in the old day..... 2005 etc


----------



## sammy84 (24 June 2013)

If we take out the 13 June low tomorrow, type A bullish divergence will be in play. Will post a chart tomorrow should this eventuate.


----------



## mr. jeff (26 June 2013)

Strong run back up to 4750 - thoughts on a retreat back to bearish run ? Will be interesting to see if the resistance will hold, but I can't predict what news will have to come out to provide the next leg down... not as certain as last weeks action and thus sitting on the sidelines.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 June 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> Strong run back up to 4750 - thoughts on a retreat back to bearish run ? Will be interesting to see if the resistance will hold, but I can't predict what news will have to come out to provide the next leg down... not as certain as last weeks action and thus sitting on the sidelines.




Same.  I suspect a fair bit more up/down/up/down for a while.... so I'm still sitting out.


----------



## MrBurns (26 June 2013)

Jim Rickards reckons the Fed will not stop printing money and the markets have overreacted........he also says the RBA have erred by lowering rates and we will not get growth but we will get inflation.............so it's full steam ahead, money out of the bank and into something as a hedge against inflation.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-25/slashing-rates-a-big-mistake/4780352


----------



## CanOz (26 June 2013)

Moved the China Liquidity chat here


----------



## mr. jeff (26 June 2013)

Anyone else seeing triangles




Looking for a break up or down soon.


----------



## coolcup (2 July 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> Anyone else seeing triangles
> 
> View attachment 53019
> 
> ...




What time period is that chart over Mr Jeff? I couldn't make out the x-axis...

- - - Updated - - -

Volatile consolidation pattern by the XJO at the moment. I still want to see a concerted push back above 4,900 before I am convinced this rally has legs. At least it seems the 4,650 level has provided a reasonable level of support. Any thoughts?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 July 2013)

Good buying opportunity for a lot of stocks today, imo.  Small pullback for the ords before a decent move upwards to *4877*.


----------



## Knobby22 (3 July 2013)

I don't think we will rally from here for a while, but we do seem to be stabilising. Maybe we will run in a channel for a few months.


----------



## satanoperca (3 July 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Good buying opportunity for a lot of stocks today, imo.  Small pullback for the ords before a decent move upwards to *4877*.




May I ask on what technical analysis this statement is derived from?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 July 2013)

satanoperca said:


> May I ask on what technical analysis this statement is derived from?




Earl Grey leaves in the bottom of my morning cup of tea.

In fact, Fibonacci extension.  I can't post it today - the uploader thing. not working.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 July 2013)

Geez.  So long as it closes at or above 4718, I reckon that's ok.


----------



## skc (3 July 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Geez.  So long as it closes at or above 4718, I reckon that's ok.




Alternate triple digit moves over 3 days... I'd simply have a volatility bias rather than long or short.


----------



## mr. jeff (3 July 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Geez.  So long as it closes at or above 4718, I reckon that's ok.




I am looking for a recovery to 4760 then a sell down to 4680
All going well we could then be looking at taking out the low at 4600.

Yesterday was surprisingly bullish which took the gloss off all bear things, but if it doesn't break that 4880 level then it looks like remaining down in the next week or so. 




4 hourly XAO - sorry for prev. ommission of time-frame.

If there is a break above 4880 then it will be game on for the longs and decent run into Christmas.
All based on my lack of incredible training and experience.
Can't read coffee grounds.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 July 2013)

skc said:


> Alternate triple digit moves over 3 days... I'd simply have a volatility bias rather than long or short.




I predicted this on the 26th on this thread!


----------



## skc (3 July 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I predicted this on the 26th on this thread!




Great call.


----------



## tech/a (7 July 2013)

The XJO is as anticipated (*Tie's in with post #9231/9235*) consolidating a wave 4 correction.
While this appears to be at contradiction with the Weekly chart you can
See that it could well all tie in.


----------



## Boggo (7 July 2013)

Weekly chart.
Different software but similiar picture to weekly above.
A couple of negative periods required in the formation of the W.5 of 5.
(click to expand)


----------



## kid hustlr (7 July 2013)

You guys have lost me.

Tech's flag pattern suggest we may kick lower, yet the Elliot wave is suggest we are going up?


----------



## tech/a (7 July 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> You guys have lost me.
> 
> Tech's flag pattern suggest we may kick lower, yet the Elliot wave is suggest we are going up?




Nothing is set in stone with any analysis.

But the daily is indicating a shorter term weakness ending a 5 wave down move 
But also see my comments on a possible ABC correction.

This would then tie in with a continuation of the up trend on the weekly.
I'm seeing some patterns now emerging indicating a return to bullishness.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 July 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Potential double bottom.  Breakout (4841) would seem unlikely but you never know.




4841 will be passed tomorrow.  I reckon a top of 4874 tomorrow, followed by a fall.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 July 2013)

How weak is it??  

Selling everything today, even my property stocks.


----------



## mr. jeff (8 July 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> How weak is it??
> 
> Selling everything today, even my property stocks.




Does appear that way but you would expect after the US action that we will see a move up - it may not hold into the close today but I still think that your previous target is viable.

We will see.

Very hard to hold firm and take a short at the top of this range as the general market has been quite robust lately with little weakness even on recent news, oil price hike etc. Perhaps earnings in the US will provide a new impetus for whichever direction is chosen. All this news of easing and tapering and not easing and not tapering makes me dizzy. Sidelined and watching!


----------



## mr. jeff (8 July 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> You guys have lost me.
> 
> Tech's flag pattern suggest we may kick lower, yet the Elliot wave is suggest we are going up?




From what I can tell from Boggo and T/A's charts, there are indications that the bottoming move may not be quite over (but possibly is over) and upon that down move finishing we should see the next wave take us up through the recent market top to 5200 at a minimum.

5200 - 4820 = 380 points in estimated end of CY13.

That is my interpretation of their interpretation so take it with a half grain of salt please - but still open to your interpretation...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 July 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 4841 will be passed tomorrow.  I reckon a  *top of4874* tomorrow, followed by a fall.




A day out with that prediction unfortunately.  I don't think it has legs.  At least i can't see any trades.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (3 August 2013)

Any ideas where the XAO is headed? This thread has been pretty quiet, for a while.

tech/a - is there any update on the EW count? It looks the weekly chart may have been the correct count: heading back up towards 5500.


----------



## Kryzz (15 August 2013)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Any ideas where the XAO is headed? This thread has been pretty quiet, for a while.
> 
> tech/a - is there any update on the EW count? It looks the weekly chart may have been the correct count: heading back up towards 5500.




Index might come off a bit in the near term if this divergence kicks into gear tomorrow (looking like it will given how futures and overseas markets are performing today/tonight).


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 August 2013)

Some decent sized falls ahead .  While the index hasn't show it yet, many stocks are breaking to the downside.  No buys other than gold stocks, and they might be at the end of their run soon.


----------



## CanOz (19 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Some decent sized falls ahead .  While the index hasn't show it yet, many stocks are breaking to the downside.  No buys other than gold stocks, and they might be at the end of their run soon.




What are the market internals saying?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 August 2013)

CanOz said:


> What are the market internals saying?




466 Advancers
320 Decliners

I don't know of anyone publishing the other indicators.

I think I'll reassess things this afternoon.  I'm _really_ not in tune at the moment.  Zone factor is about 1/10.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 August 2013)

Someone else say something.  

I'm in one of those moods where I know whatever I trade is going to go against me.


----------



## skc (19 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Someone else say something.
> 
> I'm in one of those moods where I know whatever I trade is going to go against me.




There's nothing to say! The XAO overall doesn't look to have a strong inclination one way or the other.

It's reporting season so unless you are trading the index, individual stocks pre- and post- reporting will offer much better trading opportunities imo.


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Someone else say something.
> 
> I'm in one of those moods where I know whatever I trade is going to go against me.




Lack of confidence?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 August 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Lack of confidence?




Lack of a good chair.


----------



## Boggo (19 August 2013)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> ... It looks the weekly chart may have been the correct count: heading back up towards 5500.




Tend to agree on the weekly, this pattern still in play...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=4888&page=464&p=782804&viewfull=1#post782804
(click to expand)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 August 2013)

Maybe some exercise will help me get my mojo back.  :walker:

I don't want to have to go back to the 60's.  :aliena:


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Some decent sized falls ahead .  While the index hasn't show it yet, many stocks are breaking to the downside.  No buys other than gold stocks, and they might be at the end of their run soon.




Decent enough falls anyway.  If it goes below 5000, look out.


----------



## Country Lad (22 August 2013)

The chart below is from a Bell Potter Investor Report discussing the global sharemarket.  It shows the various sharemarkets' performance since the US 10-year bond yield low of 1.6% on 2 May.

I am sure they won't object to me posting it here.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 August 2013)

Country Lad when was that taken to?


----------



## Country Lad (22 August 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Country Lad when was that taken to?




End of July, I received the report, "Global Sharemarket Perspective" on 9 August.  Since then the All Ords is up 1% and the S&P 500 down 2% so the comparison of the two would not have changed that much to now.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Snagglepuss (22 August 2013)

The XAO closed at 5104.1 on 2nd May, and at 5035.7 on 31st July. That's a drop of only 1.34%.

Over the same time period, the Australian dollar dropped around 12.3%. My guess is that graph is showing the decline of the various markets measured in USD. In which case, it is reflecting the change in the exchange rate more than anything else.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 August 2013)

Crossed 5142 just then.  Not a bad effort.  Fresh ground.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 August 2013)

Rejected fresh highs yesterday, but further drops look unlikely.  Will be sideways for a while.


----------



## CanOz (28 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Rejected fresh highs yesterday, but further drops look unlikely.  Will be sideways for a while.




Big consolidation pattern on the 60m SPI chart


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 August 2013)

CanOz said:


> Big consolidation pattern on the 60m SPI chart




Let's have a look at your 60m chart.  Can you post it?

The intraday has just flattened into nothingness.  Hard to trade.


----------



## CanOz (28 August 2013)

60 m SPI


----------



## skc (28 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Let's have a look at your 60m chart.  Can you post it?
> 
> The intraday has just flattened into nothingness.  Hard to trade.




Yes today's range is pretty tight but your chart isnt' the best way to show that. 

It looks like you are using XAO chart that includes the ASX staggared open... With large moves overseas last night, of course there were be large ranges in the first 10 minutes which makes the rest of the day's flatness looks exaggerated. 

Yes.. I just said exaggerated flatness.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 August 2013)

skc said:


> Yes today's range is pretty tight but your chart isnt' the best way to show that.
> 
> It looks like you are using XAO chart that includes the ASX staggared open... With large moves overseas last night, of course there were be large ranges in the first 10 minutes which makes the rest of the day's flatness looks exaggerated.
> 
> Yes.. I just said exaggerated flatness.




It's Heiken Ashi, but that's not a big issue.  How else would you show XAO intraday?  All XAO charts I've seen include staggered opens.


----------



## skc (28 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> It's Heiken Ashi, but that's not a big issue.  How else would you show XAO intraday?  All XAO charts I've seen include staggered opens.




Just take out the bars showing the first 10 minutes.


----------



## CanOz (28 August 2013)

skc said:


> Yes.. I just said exaggerated flatness.




lol....


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> It's Heiken Ashi, but that's not a big issue.  How else would you show XAO intraday?  All XAO charts I've seen include staggered opens.




use the SPI. XAO....... Unicorn instrument.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 August 2013)

Today's a slightly different picture.  Lots of shorts appearing on my scans but the tone still neutral.

Breaking below 5030 would be a signal to sell everything.  I'm holding nothing at the moment.

My 6 cents.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 September 2013)

Critical point in both the intraday and daily XAO.

Intraday:


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 September 2013)

+10 points on cue.

If it closes below 5135, I think that's a good short opportunity.  On the daily, the low has touched the long term support trendline.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 September 2013)

Closing candle pops above flag.


----------



## skc (9 September 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Closing candle pops above flag.




Iress plots this differently.

The last "candle" (actually yours a bar chart) is simply a "dot" where open = high = low = last.




Anyhow, big resistance now at the current 5200 zone. I wonder if it's breakable in the face of FOMC...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 September 2013)

Did it again... but bigger.

(NB: Heiken Ashi chart)


----------



## 13ugs13unny (13 September 2013)

skc said:


> Iress plots this differently.
> 
> Anyhow, big resistance now at the current 5200 zone. I wonder if it's breakable in the face of FOMC...




seen this many times before since the 1980's...I  visualise the resistance line is the door and the market forces keep knocking on the door.

I like it when it knocks a few times before the market invites it in.... its a good sign, how polite !


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 September 2013)

weekly scale, long term chart.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 September 2013)

5231 key level today.  Closing below that would be adding more shorts.

Closing at 5231 or above, might get a bounce back to the line at 5264.


----------



## 13ugs13unny (3 October 2013)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nizar said:


> But it'll be really nice if this rally blends into the seasonal Santa Claus rally.




Well if that happens most investors like me may be caught unaware.   

Then if the EU fires, along with Asia, we have a runaway market. Looks like a confluence of equities prices pressure may cause a prefect storm, e.g  like SMSF, dividends, cheap money, stable oil supplies from US now close to being a net exporter taking pressure of oil prices, runaway US gdp. 

If that's the case could be 6300-6400 by May 2014? Up to ~7,800 by 2015?

No doubt there will be panic moments to buy in along the way. IMHO. Seems the internet delivers so much news that after the initial anxiety after a 1/2 a day its behind us, shares go up again. 

Depends what news gains traction apart from the usual banter, like unemployment figures, debt ceilings, and some other policy announcements along the share market journey day after day.


----------



## tech/a (16 November 2013)

Let me be the first to point out that its *ALL* getting pretty toppy!

While the XJO isn't the weakest the USA and FTSE look extended.
A correction there will see us correct.


----------



## CanOz (18 November 2013)

Two charts, first one is the XAO and the second is the SPI daily....

Flag? We'll see but 5365 needs to hold to keep a nice pullback off the cards...

Maybe a PB before a Santa Claus rally?


----------



## Whiskers (19 November 2013)

tech/a said:


> Let me be the first to point out that its *ALL* getting pretty toppy!
> 
> While the XJO isn't the weakest the USA and FTSE look extended.
> A correction there will see us correct.




There is certainly no doubt it looks toppy as well as divergence in the markets, the XAO lagging quite a bit behind the Dow, similar to the early 2000's.

But, is it similar?

If any correlation can be drawn from the state of the US budget to their US stock market and flow on to the XAO, then expectations could keep 'artificially' pushing the US up for some time yet and give us a bit of support along the way. In the longer term the 2008 crash is getting dwarfed, while 87 is hardly a blip in the rear view mirror on the US markets.

I was a bit sceptical when some EW'ers were talking about a recovery to somewhere about here before the final leg crash to oblivion. My consideration was fiscal and monetary authorities would learn quickly how to stabalise the markets. It would appear they have done that very well. Still not convinced either way yet, though. 

Is that major correction still on those programed counts or anyone's manual count?

Or is there a systemic shift in world markets, such that XAO should be related more to India and China than the US?

Excuse the charts... it's just that I've been doing a bit of research looking for any correlation between financial charts and the XAO.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (21 November 2013)

SPI 2 hourly chart. Fib retracement line and stochastic oscillator. Looks to be some bullish divergence close to triggering.

I'm hoping that this concludes an ABC correction to the downside and a resumption of the uptrend. Perhaps the Aussie can jump on the Shanghai coat tails and onwards and upwards?


----------



## RazzaDazzla (12 December 2013)

So rather than an ABC correction, then C is now looking more like a wave 3.


----------



## coolcup (12 December 2013)

RazzaDazzla said:


> So rather than an ABC correction, then C is now looking more like a wave 3.




What does this mean?!


----------



## tech/a (12 December 2013)

coolcup said:


> What does this mean?!




On a two hr chart in the context of the index-----very little.
But bearish


----------



## piggybank (12 December 2013)

Bearish.....


----------



## tech/a (12 December 2013)

RazzaDazzla said:


> So rather than an ABC correction, then C is now looking more like a wave 3.




Yeh bearish
In the context of a two hr chart.
With regard to the index very little.

I seem to be repeating myself!


----------



## nulla nulla (13 December 2013)

piggybank said:


> View attachment 55796
> 
> 
> View attachment 55797
> ...




Looks like the resistance line at 5150 became a support line, then failed to hold the second downturn. May possibly become a resistance line again but don't know where the next support line is? Foreign investors appear to be pulling their investment funds out of Australia ahead of the xmas break. Too much negative jawboning about the economy and the Aud$ dropping undermining confidence atm.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (28 January 2014)

This is a SPI futures continuous Chart.

Standing out for me is a 61.8% retracement of the previous up move. If there's a high close today, this appears to be a rejection of the 61.8%.

I also note a divergence between price and the oscillator.

So does this conclude an A-B-C correction and onwards and upwards?


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (18 March 2014)

Long time... no updates. Is everyone on holiday? I miss these discussions - I found them extremely interesting... please come back!


----------



## Bazmate (24 March 2014)

Interesting spike in volume last week but good luck picking the next move.

I'm cautiously optimistic but I'm not sure why....

Baz


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 March 2014)

Bazmate said:


> Interesting spike in volume last week but good luck picking the next move.
> 
> I'm cautiously optimistic but I'm not sure why....
> 
> Baz




The spike in volume was from futures expiry. Means nothing other than arbitrage trades being closed out. Same thing happens every 3 months.


----------



## damdin (5 April 2014)

Any sign of exhaustion of bulls, cos this has been dragging too long.


----------



## Muschu (6 April 2014)

Curious as to why the level of contribution to this thread waxes and wanes so much.

I consider TA significant but there seem to be lengthy episodes where TA advocates seem very quiet.

May have this wrong and be missing something.


----------



## Joe Blow (6 April 2014)

Muschu said:


> Curious as to why the level of contribution to this thread waxes and wanes so much.
> 
> I consider TA significant but there seem to be lengthy episodes where TA advocates seem very quiet.
> 
> May have this wrong and be missing something.




I think sometimes threads just get forgotten after they slip off the first page. I'm considering creating a thread that will serve as a central reference point for threads like this, so they can be easily tracked down by both regular members and newcomers.

Like you, I would love to see this thread revived with some new XAO technical analysis. If anyone feels so inclined, please feel free to pick up where the others have left off and post up some charts. 

Just so others are aware, this is a purely TA XAO thread. There is another thread - XAO Banter Thread - that is intended for more general XAO discussion.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (10 April 2014)

Attempted breakout, closed well off the days opening highs. Bearish signal?


----------



## RazzaDazzla (23 April 2014)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Attempted breakout, closed well off the days opening highs. Bearish signal?




So my previous comment re. a bearish signal is well and truly being tested. Onwards and upwards from here? Or another fakeout and back down again?

This is a chart of SPI Index from IB. I assume it is derived from continuous SPI data.


----------



## Sean K (29 April 2014)

Joe Blow said:


> I think sometimes threads just get forgotten after they slip off the first page. I'm considering creating a thread that will serve as a central reference point for threads like this, so they can be easily tracked down by both regular members and newcomers.
> 
> Like you, I would love to see this thread revived with some new XAO technical analysis. If anyone feels so inclined, please feel free to pick up where the others have left off and post up some charts.
> 
> Just so others are aware, this is a purely TA XAO thread. There is another thread - XAO Banter Thread - that is intended for more general XAO discussion.



Will try Joe. Been distracted a little recently. Time I got back in the saddle I think...


----------



## Ann (11 August 2014)

Joe Blow said:


> I think sometimes threads just get forgotten after they slip off the first page. I'm considering creating a thread that will serve as a central reference point for threads like this, so they can be easily tracked down by both regular members and newcomers.
> 
> Like you, I would love to see this thread revived with some new XAO technical analysis. If anyone feels so inclined, please feel free to pick up where the others have left off and post up some charts.
> 
> Just so others are aware, this is a purely TA XAO thread. There is another thread - XAO Banter Thread - that is intended for more general XAO discussion.




Cheers Joe,

Let's whack up a couple of charts for the fun of it and give it a bump!

OK, for the experienced chartists out there I am going to now tell my grandmother how to suck eggs...or lemons or whatevr! 

This is for those who may still have not have come to grips with the more subtle details of charting.

I like to look at charts in the long view, as long as I possible can but there is one thing about looking at long term charts and that is setting it in the right scale to get the information you want to see. Short term charts are set in Linear scale, if you look at very long term charts in linear you get flattened contours and the true picture is somewhat distorted. Charts need to be set in Logarithmic or semi-Log in order to see the contours and draw lines which can actually tell you something.

Let me show you what I mean with two charts. Both charts are identicle other than the first is set in Linear and the second is set in Logarithmic.

The first chart just looks like the All Ords is going like a bullet train, well above its trend line.....but is it?

The second chart shows the long term trend line failed and now the more recent trendline may well be acting as an overhead resistance and may cause a retracement in the All Ords. 

Let's see!


----------



## rimtas (11 August 2014)

Hello all, I will post my view using EW as I trading/investing purely by using this method.

First of all I would like to mention that 2007-2009 crash was in Three Waves witch is important because 3 Waves usually means a correction. But looking at the long term charts (spaning decades), these 3 Waves are very short in terms of time.  

So what market can do is to make a double Three correction W, X and Y, where each Wave consists of Three Waves. I marked these W and X Waves  as a circled Waves, so what is missing is another 3 Waves Down at Primary Degree to new lows (below 2009). 

I think we are at the very important juncture now, as you can count 5 Waves from 2011 low  complete or almost complete, which will end Intermediate Wave (C). Also, it looks like from the mid 2013 market is forming an Ending Diagonal (ED), a pattern where all internal subdivisions consists of three Waves and ED usually means a swift reversal to the bottom of where the pattern started, in this case to 4600. 

This is a probability only, to pick the exact  top is very difficult. We still don't have 5 Waves down at least in a Daily Chart, this would be a confirmation of a trend change. Also, if you look at the weekly RSI, it is still in the Trend Mode-bouncing every time when correction ends. If it brakes lower in the coming weeks, it will make a further rally very unlikely, It worth looking at this.  

On a bullish side you can see that 61.8% level was broken which is actually bullish, I remember the same action when I traded in US markets and DOW JONES did the same thing late 2010 and kept rallying afterwards to new ATH.

So things to watch is weekly RSI and the wave structure on a Daily. I sold all my positions last week and now need a confirmation from the market-what it will do next. Later I will post an alternate bullish count, but at this stage I am sceptical about it. US markets have fallen in Five Waves down from the top, it could drag down the whole world indexes later .


----------



## nulla nulla (19 August 2014)

A picture can say more than a thousand words:


----------



## Sean K (19 August 2014)

rimtas said:


> Hello all, I will post my view using EW as I trading/investing purely by using this method.
> 
> First of all I would like to mention that 2007-2009 crash was in Three Waves witch is important because 3 Waves usually means a correction. But looking at the long term charts (spaning decades), these 3 Waves are very short in terms of time.
> 
> ...



Your EW based 4550 target indicated here didn't quite work out. What's next? We must be in a new wave now?


----------



## rimtas (19 August 2014)

This is a target that can't be reached in one day. Basically this kind of move, if it occurs at all, will take a year or so in time terms. What is important at this stage is that either we are forming a Primary degree Top, or market is in the early stages of 3 of 3 massive advance which could take us to 2007 top in a matter of 9 months. 

I personally am almost out of the market, bought just a few stocks-ABP, SGP, AHE, MIN, WES, NAB but 80% of portfolio is cash. To be all in, I need a confirmation from the market that it wants to go one way or another and this will be a certain wave structure in the nearest future, maybe a month/two  from now. I like Daily or Weekly charts, as they produce the clearest wave structures. 

I do keep in mind that this could be the new Cycle bull wave that could carry XAO to ATH till year 2022 but the real struggle is when you have three waves from 2009 bottom which could actually be a correction also. 

The bottom line is that we need to make money and traders and investors must not overanalyse. There are times when one must be in the market and there are times when not. Market is not going to run anywhere, I am trading many years already and from my experience I know that the real good setups when you can go all in appears only once or twice a year.  And these are not times when the market is rallying everyday. If it is rallying and you are on cash-you are late. If you late-wait for another setup, there will be plenty.


----------



## mohAct (8 September 2014)

Hi All

 I am looking for a demo server to use it in Meta trader software for ASX stocks (Not Forex)

 Can anybody help?

Cheers


----------



## rimtas (11 September 2014)

On previous page I posted a weekly chart pointing that ASX could be in an Ending Diagonal Pattern, since then market made a new high and even  few guys throwed in a towel sugesting me to reevaluate the structure, but in reality nothing changed, picture still looks the same, on a weekly chart the pattern is still between the converging lines.

I decided to look into a smaller time frame how exactly this pattern is unfolding. Under the Wave Principle, all subdivisions should be "threes" and this is exactly what is happening. 


I present two charts below-one is ASX futures and the Other All Ords cash index. They differ a little bit in a wave structure and futures suggests that one more subvave could make a "throwover" to new highs, while Cash could be poised for a decline already. It would be interesting to see how this situation will play out.  I personaly more trust futures than cash as it records data 24h, this means more precise waves on a chart.
On a time scale it could take few more months -up to 3-5 weeks now in correction and then rise into Christmas(aka santa rally).







This pattern will invalidate itself if the market rises to and above 6000 on Cash making the 5 wave longer than the 3rd , turning the overal wave structure from 2009y bottom into more bulish perspective, but at the moment it is a slimm chace for this to happen, as US dollar started to rally(a defliationary trend in force), commodities and metals are plunging and optimism toward stocks in USA is at all time record high among market participants wich happens only at major tops, not bottoms.
 And ASX more or less follow  US markets and if declice begins overseas, all Ords  react the same way I suppose.


----------



## Porper (11 September 2014)

rimtas said:


> On previous page I posted a weekly chart pointing that ASX could be in an Ending Diagonal Pattern, since then market made a new high and even  few guys throwed in a towel sugesting me to reevaluate the structure, but in reality nothing changed, picture still looks the same, on a weekly chart the pattern is still between the converging lines.
> 
> I decided to look into a smaller time frame how exactly this pattern is unfolding. Under the Wave Principle, all subdivisions should be "threes" and this is exactly what is happening.
> 
> ...




Good work. A throwover has already occurred so if you are correct price will head lower in an impulsive manner. With Ending Diagonals price will head down to the origin of the pattern in around a third to half of the time taken by the prior leg down. This obviously means the market will tank if you are correct.


----------



## PennD (12 September 2014)

rimtas said:


> On previous page I posted a weekly chart pointing that ASX could be in an Ending Diagonal Pattern, since then market made a new high and even  few guys throwed in a towel sugesting me to reevaluate the structure, but in reality nothing changed, picture still looks the same, on a weekly chart the pattern is still between the converging lines.
> 
> I decided to look into a smaller time frame how exactly this pattern is unfolding. Under the Wave Principle, all subdivisions should be "threes" and this is exactly what is happening.
> 
> ...




Hi Rimtas,

Could you clear something up for me please? On your last 2 charts you have X: 22sep Y: 4567.7 and X:15Oct Y: 4608.1 respectively.... Can you explain the time factor of these please? The target is clear. 

I have been watching this ending diagonal for a few weeks now... good to find someone with your level of knowledge posting about it. Good work!!

Cheers 

Penn


----------



## rimtas (13 September 2014)

Hi Penn,
 those X and Y actually are the coordinates of the cursor which I used to determine a bottom from which ED started. So important is only the price level, time coordinate is just where the cursor sits at the graph and it does not mean anything at all, don't pay atention to it. 


I just checked today how US E-mini closed on Friday and was a bit frightened to see that it formed and Expanding Leading Diagonal  and a three wave correction that followed... Expanding Leading Diagonals usually warns that a massive drop is underway. It could be also as an A wave, but from my personal experience I saw above 80% of those patterns that ended in a crash.

Lets see what Monday brings, I am still holding a few stocks with a pretty good long term structure, and intend to buy TLS next week, but if the crash will produce a 5 waves down I will clear the whole portfolio on rebound and think twice about any new buys.

And sorry for my grammar, I am European guy, English is not my mother tongue.







By the way, in regards to that Ending Diagonal on ASX-it is a Triangular Structure, and Triangles take a lot of time to form. One of the alternatives is that it  could be just 2/3 of the pattern that we see and one more year still to go to the end of it. I have this alternative view because there are still many stocks on ASX that are missing waves to new highs before reversing...  

When following any index, it is always worth to check it's components-are they aligned in such a way that wave structures are pointing to a turn along with broader index.


----------



## PennD (15 September 2014)

Thanks for clearing that up rimtas...


----------



## rimtas (15 September 2014)

I checked out Dow Industrials, it also has an Ending Diagonal but not complete yet, one more wave to new highs is missing.   A nice 5 wave move from the end of 2013 started to rise in "threes" so there is no other options for another count. RSI at the bottom of the chart confirms the count and each Wave in ED is weaker as the pattern develops higher to the Top.

 Probably markets will rise into November/December due to seasonal bias so it will be a good time to liquidate all positions before a crash. I am pretty sure that ASX will follow DOW as the rest of the world also.  Herding is a powerful thing when it comes to selling, no one cares why at that point.


----------



## Julia (16 September 2014)

> Herding is a powerful thing when it comes to selling



+1.


----------



## Sean K (16 September 2014)

An ABC radio commentator was even suggesting a major correction this morning. 

Wasn't based on threes and fives but on an upcoming Fed decision on interest rates and commentary on outlook. If they suggest interest rates are going up, then is that good, or bad, in the market's mind? 

At the moment, you would have to assume that, what? What is the market factoring in with this ending diagonal?

The threes and fives are saying quite a large correction. 

Yes?


----------



## Julia (16 September 2014)

I don't  know, but if US interest rates are raised it's surely an indication of a more healthy economy, but on the other hand, they have become so addicted to QE that the idea it will be withdrawn is enough, apparently, to send panic into some.

Not too dissimilar is the situation right here where ultra low interest rates are feeding property speculation and driving rising SPs in high yield stocks (well, until the last few days).
If interest rates here were to rise then people who have over-reached in leverage into property will be in trouble, and if rates were continue to rise, selling would occur in eg bank stocks in favour of cash.

I might be completely wrong.  Just trying to respond and to accede to Joe's request to increase posting.


----------



## rimtas (16 September 2014)

Julia said:


> they have become so addicted to QE that the idea it will be withdrawn is enough, apparently, to send panic into some.




If you look more closely, QE actually doesn't work as it supposed to be. People thinking that QE is driving everything up are a bit misleaded. 

A common refrain is that the Fed's QE has made stocks go up. But causality shouldn't be formulated that way. A wave of increasing optimism lasting five years has prompted investors to buy stocks and a record amount of junk bonds. The Fed has accommodated this impulse, but it did not cause it. The conventional claim to causality is virtually invalidated buy the slide in precious metals and commodities, both of which began when the biggest QEs(3 and 4) started. It is also invalidated by the real estate collapse of 2006-10, during which time the Fed lowered rates to zero and started a record expansion of its balance sheet, neither of which kept the plunge from occurring. More proof will come when stocks also turn down.


 US Federal Reserve is scheduled to end QE in October. Since 2012, the Fed has taken on massive new debts in an attempt to reflate the monetary system. It is losing battle.

 All it did, all it could do, was encourage more debt. And the debt is the problem, so the problem got bigger while the Fed got bloated. The Fed made a huge strategic mistake: It exhausted the ability to use one of its biggest "tools" , in a bull market. It should have waited until late in the next bear market to step in, which would have made it appear that the Fed stopped the decline. Now what will it do? Congress is breathing down the Fed's neck and it seems likely that when financial prices melt down this time, the authorities' resolve will melt away, along with the Fed's credibility and autonomy, if not existence.


----------



## rimtas (16 September 2014)

kennas said:


> What is the market factoring in with this ending diagonal?




Ending Diagonals usually appears at the end of the trend, when markets run "too far, too fast".  DOW hasn't taken a breath for over two years. When it finally exhales, I think it will collapse at the same time.

 Sorry for not answering your question because I do not know what market is thinking(nobody does). Anyone who tries to "explain" what markets are factoring in are just speculating. You are buying and selling stocks, so basically you are the market(part of it). And if you are the market, you must know what you are factoring in.  If you don't know, why assume anyone does?

Let's say you are factoring in that Fed will rise interest rates, or end the QE.  Based on this knowledge, what kind of actions would you do now?

 Would you sell all your stocks, or rather wait and see what happens and only then  sell? The first part of the question tells you that why sell if nothing if crashing at the moment, and the second part is just following the trend, both are herding anyway, so knowledge and information have nothing to do with decision making or factoring things in.


----------



## qldfrog (17 September 2014)

And herd/trend following is not a bad thing; it is a fact that needs to be taken into account in your decision;
based on pure economy, I would be completely out of the Australian market  and have everything in O/S cash/gold
but I would have had this situation for the last  nearly 2 years, and so lost a lot of the profit I made/increased the losses i incurred;
market is a mass psyche game, something the "value investor" of this world will deny but...


----------



## Julia (17 September 2014)

rimtas said:


> If you look more closely, QE actually doesn't work as it supposed to be. People thinking that QE is driving everything up are a bit misleaded.



Isn't this rather a matter of semantics?   I completely agree with your point later about debt.  However, if the sentiment/perception is that QE is 'working' then there is money to be made before it all falls apart, if it does.

From another thread today:


> The market sees the letters ’Q’ and ’E’ combined with China and it’s Happy New Year to the money printers and that’s what the jump is,” Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Chatham, New Jersey-based Themis Trading LLC, said via phone. “They want the game to continue. They may not know how or why it’s happening but get some new QE money in there and that’s how the market reacts.”
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...oil-drops.html







qldfrog said:


> And herd/trend following is not a bad thing; it is a fact that needs to be taken into account in your decision;
> based on pure economy, I would be completely out of the Australian market  and have everything in O/S cash/gold
> but I would have had this situation for the last  nearly 2 years, and so lost a lot of the profit I made/increased the losses i incurred;
> market is a mass psyche game, something the "value investor" of this world will deny but...



+1.


----------



## rimtas (17 September 2014)

qldfrog said:


> And herd/trend following is not a bad thing;.




No, of course not. Actually you only make money when you are with the herd, not against it. 

But there is something important to know-trend reversals occur when the herd sentiment gets extreeme, e.a when majority of the herd feels the same way. 
That is unfortunatelly in the human nature, we can not change this, and financials markets are driven purely on the herding impulses arising from  the limbic system.

There are number of good technical and socionomic indicators telling about the state of the crowd and when combined with Wave Principle , you can have a good basis on a forecast.  

I am not sure  in what kind of state are aussie investors as I am new to these markets and still looking for a good data sources, but US markets are definitely in a state of euphoria that has beaten all records of all times backing charts 300 years ago.  

The only thing I noticed about sentiment here is in a property market-it is extreme, at least here in FNQ Cairns, houses and land jumped +30% in prices just in last year alone, agencies claiming that they are selling properties "like hotcakes' and that now is the best time to buy.  And despite first home buyers activity at the record lows, investors are buying houses like they are the last on earth. There are even a massive 10+ billion casino/hotel development from Chinese investors awaiting council approval. 

I once was in an agency to make enquiry about land package and the first I've  heard when I stepped through the door was "hurry up, there are not much blocks left". And there were a few young people standing in a queue like they are after the milk and bread in the shopping centre, instead paying 200K+ for the 600sq/m block in a suburb.

That's just a herding frenzy, better not to be caught in it, as when it reverses consequences for todays buyers  who are buying "for super", "for dividend" or "for long run like  a Buffet did" will be very dear. 

Keep your stops tight.


----------



## rimtas (17 September 2014)

I wanted to share a chart  which I noticed today. I like to measure bigger trends with weekly RSI which shows upcoming trend changes pretty good.  

In the chart bellow you can see that the Ending Diagonal pattern was developing above the red line, as it should be in a motive wave. This line was just broken down, but market is still above the major ressistance levels at 5360, 5300 and 5000 which when breached will signal about trend change from the price action alone. 

So this RSI breach is already signalling that Ending Diagonal is over and markets will work out the way to the green line. If the green line on RSI will be broken, the overall big picture is doomed and new lows below 2009 are ahead. 

And just one quick notice-the week is not over yet, only Friday close will tell about RSI lines, maybe it will jump back tomorrow like crazy making the trend intact.

It is just an early notice, we are looking for a leading indicators that can foresee things. This one is simple but when combined with Wave Principle is pretty good.


----------



## rimtas (27 September 2014)

As expected, XAO produced a thrust down with a good momentum and in short term subdivisions it is posible to count 5 waves down wich is a trend reversal comfirmation.
 I suppose(expect) we could have a countertrend correction (up) next couple weeks or so, it would be a good time to drop everything for anyone who is long as the next wave should be more intense and carry prices straight to 4500 level at least.
There are still no any trend reversal confirmations from US indexes, but most likely they toped too. 

US dollar records just 3% bears (trade futures.com), so a relief decline should shake out the speculators before another leg of advance allowing a market to breathe.

Interesting times ahead, it is worth waiting a few months to see wether XAO will sport a 5waves down at Intermediate degree... This will be a clear sign that another wave of some sort of GFC is coming and anyone buying realestate or stocks is doing so at the top-as they say-the last person pays for all. 

I'll be back with good charts soon...


----------



## PennD (29 September 2014)

Hey Rimtas,

It certainly looks to be taking shape... What did you make of todays drop? Still wave 5 of 1 or its going further?

mmm, look forward to see your charts

Cheers Penn..


----------



## rimtas (29 September 2014)

Hi Penn,

Further deterioration in some regional indices calls into question whether short-term lows are nearby. Australia and Hong Kong continue to decline steeply. India is at a critical juncture where a rally is required to maintain the intermediate-term bullish trend. 

The ASX 200 broke lower today and as I write futures continue to slide to new lows this night.
 The brief sideways correction last week counts best as a fourth-wave triangle as shown on the intraday chart, though smaller time frame subdivisions are not a triangular waves so this count is questionable. If you notice the RSI index below does not show any positive divergences that should be typical for 5th waves, so I should be cautios about labeling it as a first wave down which implies a temporary bottom and rally ahead starting this week.

My discipline tells me to avoid picking bottoms during steep declines, especialy when the trend in momentum  indicators remains bearish. 





 The Australian market is extremely weak here. When looking at the weekly, we can see that recent decline is so powerfull, that it instantly reached the 5 year RSI uptrend line-a good spot to stop and start a rally. 
 iF this week closes lower it tells me that this medium term uptrend is broken. This event will immediately puts us to longer term timeframes which are very very messy and unclear.






But for now let's see whether this decline is over as a first wave (circled), because if it is, it should rally almost immediately tomorrow, unless market decide to sport a small Ending Diagonal as the (v) wave.

One more note-because market is oversold short-term, failure to relieve a pessimistic presure will usually result in a crash.  I am monitoring a US markets(and the rest of the world as well) and they seem to be in a juncture of either crash or rally, I can't see any sideways from here in US.

Tommorow I'll post more charts and thoughts... Cheers


----------



## rimtas (30 September 2014)

One interesting ASX long term chart, but I am suspicious about Cycle Wave b being so short in terms of time... But not ruling out this possibility, for this to gain more weight we should decline in 5 waves till the middle of next year, which should be Primary 1 of Cycle c.


----------



## Porper (1 October 2014)

rimtas said:


> One interesting ASX long term chart, but I am suspicious about Cycle Wave b being so short in terms of time... But not ruling out this possibility, for this to gain more weight we should decline in 5 waves till the middle of next year, which should be Primary 1 of Cycle c.
> 
> View attachment 59612




Not sure what you mean about wave-b as it's taken much longer to form than wave-a so looks ok time wise i.m.o. Also, the recent high has terminated around the wave equality level & the 61.8% retracement level of the prior leg down. No doubt that we have been correcting higher the past few years though which doesn't bode well. It's a bear market bounce...unlike the U.S.


----------



## rimtas (1 October 2014)

Porper said:


> Not sure what you mean about wave-b as it's taken much longer to form than wave-a so looks ok time wise i.m.o.




I meant wave b is short relative to prior impulse wave from 1974.(the same with wave a) It could extend to new highs forming a much bigger wave b of an Expandet Flat , like US.



Porper said:


> It's a bear market bounce...unlike the U.S




USA is also in a bear market bounce....With current most extreme sentiment readings it will unlikely to form a full impulse wave from 2009, leaving it as a b wave.


----------



## rimtas (1 October 2014)

The ASX 200 was deeply oversold (and still is). The 5-day breadth oscillator shows a bullish divergence signal, which ads confidence to the count that wave I (circled) is complete. But any rally now is likely to be minimal. The downside momentum is strong on the larger timeframes. The ASX is very much on my avoid list, but I recognize that a rally back to the 5400-5500 area is likely in coming sessions.


----------



## Porper (1 October 2014)

rimtas said:


> I meant wave b is short relative to prior impulse wave from 1974.(the same with wave a) It could extend to new highs forming a much bigger wave b of an Expandet Flat , like US.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




If you are correct then wave-b is extremely deep and looks impulsive in nature. Usually wave-b will not be more than 1.382x the length of wave-a. In this chart it has exceeded 1.618 the length of wave-a. To me the larger correction that commenced in 1999 completed as a flat with strength from 2009 being the initial stages of a multi-year trend that has plenty of room to run. A correction is overdue though.


----------



## Porper (1 October 2014)

rimtas said:


> The ASX 200 was deeply oversold (and still is). The 5-day breadth oscillator shows a bullish divergence signal, which ads confidence to the count that wave I (circled) is complete. But any rally now is likely to be minimal. The downside momentum is strong on the larger timeframes. The ASX is very much on my avoid list, but I recognize that a rally back to the 5400-5500 area is likely in coming sessions.
> 
> 
> View attachment 59631




We totally agree on the XJO chart...a bounce only expected, then down to 5000. Good support down there though so whether we'll get lower is debatable.


----------



## rimtas (1 October 2014)

Porper said:


> In this chart it has exceeded 1.618 the length of wave-a.that has plenty of room to run. .




I do not know how you calculated, but it is 1.38 retracement.
As noted in Elliot Wave Principle(p.89), normaly the maximum retracement for wave B of an expandet flat is 1.382 times the lenght of wave A. 
In the current case, wave* a* itself is an expandet flat, so the retracement pertains to its total height. Using Daily closes, wave *b* from the 2009 low of 6547 to the high in 2014 of 17.280 covered 10.733, retracing ~1.390 of wave C (circled) of *a*.





In other chart we can observe that the 2007 and 2014 highs  are each ~20.85% above the respective highs of 2000 and 2007. This is manifestation of symetry in the form of equal net gains above previous highs by adjacent advancing waves.  And in shorter time frames(not shown) DOW already has started to decline, so probability for a massive   reversal is very high. I think ASX will follow if this count is correct.


----------



## Porper (1 October 2014)

rimtas said:


> I do not know how you calculated, but it is 1.38 retracement.
> As noted in Elliot Wave Principle(p.89), normaly the maximum retracement for wave B of an expandet flat is 1.382 times the lenght of wave A.
> In the current case, wave* a* itself is an expandet flat, so the retracement pertains to its total height. Using Daily closes, wave *b* from the 2009 low of 6547 to the high in 2014 of 17.280 covered 10.733, retracing ~1.390 of wave C (circled) of *a*.
> 
> ...





The difference is you are calculating from the 2007 high...which as you correctly state is the actual high of the expanded flat. The start of wave-A however is from the 2000 high. That is where I think the projection should be made from as it's the terminal point of the prior leg. My count is less bearish but allows for a significant decline... assuming a top is in which is by no means certain.


----------



## rimtas (2 October 2014)

Hi Proper, what do you mean in your chart by labeling advance "1 or A"?

I think you need more history to assess the size of the waves...











There are even more data, but for this time it is enough to see that this is definately not the 1st wave...

JUst hipoteticaly guesing where will be ASX if the DOW crashes below 1000 in the next 8 years? I gues somewhere below 500....Cheap houses once again for those who will manage to keep cash safe, and broken lives for those who are in debt or in stocks...
Many companies will fail and be delisted, majority of blue chips will seek mergers to survive, dividends will be off the table for very long time, uneployment will soar and realestate prices will crash. 

Hey, don't judge me,  it is just a wild ques what _could hapen_ if market enters a big bear. As for now better let's focuse of what _is happening_-the markets are in uptrend medium term, no any confirmation about the biger size top.


Sorry for offtopic, looks like XAO technical analysis turned into DOW technical analysis...Next time I will work out more with ASX, just before I heavily traded in US markets so have a massive amount of material about it.


----------



## Porper (3 October 2014)

Where to start the count is the grey area to me. That aside I just can't see Armageddon unfolding which is what you offer with your wave count.

This is the main problem with Prechter and his merry men i.m.o.. (not suggesting you are one of them) he has been bearish since 2000 to my knowledge, maybe earlier. He has lost his subscribers all their money advocating short positions and DOW sub 100. He still runs the doom and gloom message. It just isn't going to happen...it's not reality. However, it is good for gaining more subscribers...people love the big calls. Yes, totally off topic so back to the XAO next time!


----------



## rimtas (8 October 2014)

Porper said:


> Where to start the count is the grey area to me.




You can start it from here







And a bit about Prechter and his team-first and foremost they are market forecasters, not traders. Forecasts do go wrong sometimes, no one has a crystal ball.


----------



## Porper (8 October 2014)

rimtas said:


> You can start it from here
> 
> 
> View attachment 59737
> ...




I was talking about the longer term count, the smaller degree patterns are crystal clear. Impulse down to be corrected only...then more downside to 5000 - give or take. Longer term patterns not so clear.

As for Prechter there are 2 positives. He almost single handidly brought back the Wave Theory from the dead. Secondly he won the trading championships, albeit many years ago.

Yes, he is a forecaster but do you think his subscribers join just to see a forecast? No, they use his analysis as buy/sell signals. He has been wrong for decades now, not months. I was a subscriber in the past and his calls were dismal to say the least. I give credit where it is due, but he says the same old thing...doom and gloom and Dow to 500. He has been wrong and will continue to be.


----------



## rimtas (8 October 2014)

Well...what can say...before judge anyone using EW as a trading tool, first show your counts and forecasts near/intermediate and long term, show how you trade, what you see.  Where the setups are and why.
 DOW, ASX, any stocks. 
 I do not know why you are in the markets, but I am here to make money.  And money can be made not by using someone forecasts, but by using your discipline. Even In the greatest bull markets, most people are loosing money despite everyday piar form mass media about "average annual returns" which they say, are always positive long term(which is a bogus).  
Trading/investing has nothing to do about economy or stock picking, it is a battle with your own emotions. 

Cheers


----------



## rimtas (10 October 2014)

Back to TA..

looks like the  wave i(circled)  bottom is in, so a multiweek corection is ahead.   Because market crosed two bullish trendlines, the most likely targets are backtesting one of them from below. So it could be a shalow corection, like EUR/USD (in time), o sharp and scary(for bears) in price.  You never know in advance.


----------



## Jens (10 October 2014)

rimtas said:


> Trading/investing has nothing to do about economy or stock picking, it is a battle with your own emotions.




It sure is...I have been battling with my emotions for years.


----------



## Porper (10 October 2014)

Jens said:


> It sure is...I have been battling with my emotions for years.




For those that can't get to grips with the emotional side of trading there is always the option of using a mechanical system. There are many around though you will have to pay a small fee for the good ones.


----------



## PennD (10 October 2014)

Hi Rimtas,

looking at the over night action in the US and asx futures, wave one bottom look to be taken out today...?

This wave 2, (if it ever materialises?) would be a very profitable trade... Finding it is the hard part 

Cheers


----------



## rimtas (10 October 2014)

PennD said:


> Hi Rimtas,
> 
> looking at the over night action in the US and asx futures, wave one bottom look to be taken out today...?
> 
> ...




Hi Penn, I suggest never trade wave 2, no mater what size it could take. It can only be used to liquidate the remaining positions  that were not sold near the top, before the wave 3 crash. This especially can be said about the moves from an Ending Diagonals, because they accumulate so much optimism without rising prises, that the movements from their top almost always are sharp and scary for bulls, producing only little corrections underway.

 Maybe wave 2 is already upon us, but this shows that a market is very weak, and crashes occurs only when the market is oversold and is unable to rally.  

US indexes are still not in the wave 3 zone and price action suggests that series of first and second waves are in operation, or when you look on a smaller timer frames it started to get the shape of an Expanding Leading Diagonal, which when forming from the top suggests that a 3 wave would be very steep.  This pattern appears to be ending, and if it ends today, next week we could see a sizable wave 2 rally, ASX should follow. 

But if DOW crosses (and closes below)the ED lower line, there will be no corrections up and most likely  wave 3 is underway.  It is better not to have any long positions open during this time.


----------



## rimtas (10 October 2014)

I decided to take a look at a smaller time frames, though the best for wave analysis is to go with daily or weekly charts. But anyway, today market crashed 2% and I thought it is worth to take a look. 

What I see right now is that from the last corrective top which I labelled wave (iv), market started to move in tree waves, which immediately  forced me to think that an Ending Diagonal is in  the works. They take time to form, but each wave within is slower and slower, as RSI at the bottom suggests. If this scenario materializes, next week All Ords will hit the bottom somewhere in 5100-5000 range. It could also sport an Expanding pattern (not shown) which will go to the lower range.
If I were a "bargain" hunter like some people here, I would wait for at least 5 waves up on 1H chart as a confirmation that wave i (circled) bottom is in.






Banks are holding quite well, not moving below the bottoms established at the start of this month, creating a non-confirmation of the decline with All Ords, which is typical for fifth waves. As an example I show ANZ chart, which has pretty nice wave combination at this stage.






So basically situation is as follows-the decline started to slow down and  market is sporting an overlapping waves which is a sign of a probable turn soon.  It is like a car-before the turn it slows down. Of course, the driver can change his mind at the last second and decide not to turn, and we can do nothing about it. But the probabilities at this stage are more bullish than bearish.


----------



## Julia (10 October 2014)

rimtas said:


> So basically situation is as follows-the decline started to slow down and  market is sporting an overlapping waves which is a sign of a probable turn soon.  It is like a car-before the turn it slows down. Of course, the driver can change his mind at the last second and decide not to turn, and we can do nothing about it. But the probabilities at this stage are more bullish than bearish.



OK, let's revisit this additional prediction from you later.

You seem to rely totally on EW.  Others might also take into account basic fundamentals, not just in terms of individual companies, but wider global and national factors.
I think you made a prediction about NAB going higher some days ago.  The following day the company offered pessimistic news re their UK operation.   
How does your EW take into account this sort of factor?

At the opposite end of the spectrum there are the value investors who say they don't care in terms of a few % either way what they pay for a stock, that it's irrelevant what the market is doing if they believe in the ultimate value of their chosen stock.   OK, but wouldn't it be reasonable to make the most of volatility as at present by buying at a lower rather than higher price?

If there's some good news about at present, I've not seen it.  Instead, we have dodgy employment numbers from the ABS here, the European 'recovery' more shaky than ever, jitters about the prospect of increased interest rates in the USA, what is essentially war in the Middle East, Ebola which is threatening to become a global epidemic, continuing squabbling about political direction here in Australia, China slapping tariffs on coal, and so on.   Hardly conditions for any sort of bullish market outlook, I'd have thought.
But perhaps I'm just a pessimist.  Extremely glad to be minimally invested in just a small pure yield p/f right now.


----------



## Porper (10 October 2014)

Julia said:


> If there's some good news about at present, I've not seen it.  Instead, we have dodgy employment numbers from the ABS here, the European 'recovery' more shaky than ever, jitters about the prospect of increased interest rates in the USA, what is essentially war in the Middle East, Ebola which is threatening to become a global epidemic, continuing squabbling about political direction here in Australia, China slapping tariffs on coal, and so on.   Hardly conditions for any sort of bullish market outlook, I'd have thought.
> But perhaps I'm just a pessimist.  Extremely glad to be minimally invested in just a small pure yield p/f right now.




Julia, Elliott Wave doesn't take fundamentals into consideration at all. The patterns are as presented irrespective of whether we have overriding optimism or pessimism. However having studied Elliott for several years I believe it's better used as a confirming factor as opposed to using it as a standalone trading method. Rimtas will disagree no doubt, but this is my personal view.

As you rightly say pessimism is high which is often a precursor to a reversal. Usually major market tops are made when everybody and their dog are bullish with everything being rosy. The reverse it also true.


----------



## rb250660 (11 October 2014)

Porper said:


> ...it's better used as a confirming factor....




So it's great in hindsight. Awesome


----------



## rimtas (11 October 2014)

Julia said:


> OK, let's revisit this additional prediction from you later.
> 
> 
> I think you made a prediction about NAB going higher some days ago. .




Yes, there was a perfect setup in EW terms and I picked up the bottom within cents, jumped all in with 1:4 leverage and let it go. As you said, the next day NAB announced bad news(though probably not, it was later,  but I do not want to check this as it doesn't has any value) and it rallied for the whole week up  in total +3,5% from the bottom. For a short term traders it would be enough and they could already exited, but my strategy was different as I am chasing only big returns and not interested in small ones.   Maybe NAB will rally again soon when ALL Ords hit the first wave's bottom, but without a perfect setup I can't get in, that's part of my discipline. I do not like losses, especially floating ones. 

And yes, you noticed correctly-I am relying only on EW, others on fundamentals, some on quantitative technical analysis. Many people, many approaches to the market, many strategies. I do not say that other strategies a bad, but how to pick the wave extremes using them is a very muted area to me. And as I can see from this forum, people using these other strategies usually are averaging down accumulating loses with hopes they are owning a part of business which can't go broke according to them.

I do not rely on fundamentals because they are not the force that is driving stock prices up and down. The market mood is the main force, and when it turns negative, fundamentals are the last thing what it cares about. Only on a positive mood looks like fundamentals are working, but the truth is that even stocks with bad fundamentals rise in a wave of positive mood in the markets. And when people do not understand why, they blame technical, they say it is a technical rise because everything is rising. 

The opposite is true-when good stocks with good fundamentals go down on the negative dominant, people say that this is only technical drop and these stocks will recover, that's why they are seeking shelter in good stocks with good dividends during declines. But if ordinary correction turns into long term trend, it doesn't mater what fundamentals are, god or bad-people with pessimistic mood will drown the whole thing to the bottom. 

Hopefully I cleared my point of view, which is personal. Other people has their own, I do not mind.

P.S. I actually do not know what people using fundamentals are doing in this thread. They should skip it. Technicians live in they own world and the clashes between two groups are always volatile. Why do this? I personally do not post in the threads of fundamentalists, but never mind to speak about animal spirits here.


----------



## IFocus (11 October 2014)

rb250660 said:


> So it's great in hindsight. Awesome




I haven't been following this market lately but EW among other factors help get me out of the market Nov 2007 and kept me out long until 2009 but wouldn't say its the panacea of all trading.


----------



## Julia (11 October 2014)

rimtas said:


> And as I can see from this forum, people using these other strategies usually are averaging down accumulating losses with hopes they are owning a part of business which can't go broke according to them.
> 
> I do not rely on fundamentals because they are not the force that is driving stock prices up and down. *The market mood is the main force, and when it turns negative, fundamentals are the last thing what it cares about.* Only on a positive mood looks like fundamentals are working, but the truth is that even stocks with bad fundamentals rise in a wave of positive mood in the markets.
> 
> The opposite is true-when good stocks with good fundamentals go down on the negative dominant, people say that this is only technical drop and these stocks will recover, that's why they are seeking shelter in good stocks with good dividends during declines. But if ordinary correction turns into long term trend, it doesn't matter what fundamentals are, god or bad-people with pessimistic mood will drown the whole thing to the bottom.



Thank you for discussing your approach.  I particularly agree with the portion above that I've bolded.



> P.S. I actually do not know what people using fundamentals are doing in this thread. They should skip it. Technicians live in they own world and the clashes between two groups are always volatile.



Perhaps so.  But I don't see why this should necessarily be so.   Part of the point of my earlier post was my puzzlement about people who are so exclusively focused on a single approach.  Just seems to me that to take into account, to at least some extent, important fundamental factors which influence the market mood you've described above, plus maximising entry and exit points with a simple look at a chart, makes sense.

The last thing we need is yet another squabble over FA v TA which is not what I'm trying to provoke at all.  Perhaps the differences are mostly just about time frames?


----------



## rimtas (11 October 2014)

Julia said:


> important fundamental factors which influence the market mood you've described above,




I can not buy this because I think the opposite-the dominant market mood is creating a fundamental factors, which are the consequences of that mood. That's why I think fundamentals lag the market and it is not worth  my precious time to be interested in them. Positive mood drives the stocks higher and creates good fundamentals. Positive people spend more, are more open minded, less cautions. 

 But good earnings doesn't mean the stock will rally further and the opposite is true. I think the best buying opportunities are not when the fundamentals are shiny, but when companies constantly fail to generate profit, they cut dividends and try to seek mergers to survive. These conditions accommodate major bear market bottoms and present anyone with good long term buy entries. 

My point above is about the whole market, which is like a sea-waving from one extreme to another, always seeking to be in the middle. Separate companies are like drops in the ocean and they can be bought or sold for different reasons than the whole market which operate on a herding basis.


----------



## Julia (11 October 2014)

We may be talking at cross purposes here.  My reference to 'fundamental factors' was a poor choice of words.
I didn't mean the fundamentals of any company, rather global and local events and their likely outcomes which influence market mood.


----------



## rimtas (11 October 2014)

Julia said:


> global and local events and their likely outcomes which influence market mood.




Could you please tell at least one example when and how major global events influenced market mood and turned it around? Cause I don't know any. There were major earthquake taking 200K lives in Indonesia, volcano eruptions that grounded the whole Europe(and beyond) fleets resulting in billions of losses to companies, Huricanes like Catrina and Yassi to name the few, localy a Brisbane flood resulting in special taxes to cover expenses and so on from natures side...

Man made disasters were 9/11 attack, Iraq war that followed, now we see half the world fighting terrorism, many local clashes in the streets to name just a few..

Does any of these negative events some how changed or disrupted the dominant market trends at that time? Just take a look at the charts and you'll be very surprised to see that any events people see as "important to the market" had no any impact on the local and global share markets.

   In March 2008 Bear Sterns  sold itself to  JP Morgan at a price with more than 90% discount to the market but just 2 month later DOW was trading +10% higher, because only _after_  the crash occurred analysts  started to talk that this was the reason. Even after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in  September 15, 2008, next week DOW was trading +5% higher, when now everybody are blaming it for the crash .
 And so many people still believe that news somehow influence markets. They say-ok, maybe the market needs some time to digest these news, but at the same time they are waiting till company announce the results and expect to see market reaction next day, usually in accordance to results. When this doesn't happens, they say it was "sell on news" event and then wait for another similar setup, despite market proved it to be wrong again and again. 

From EW perspective, no any major financial, nature, or social events were disrupting the wave structure at any degree; or reversing short/medium/long term trends before any pattern in operation at that time was complete. 

It was, is and will be the fractal at all times, until the human neocortex becomes greater in size compare to the basal ganglia and limbic system, which are responsible for the social actions, market trends including.


----------



## Julia (11 October 2014)

rimtas said:


> Could you please tell at least one example when and how major global events influenced market mood and turned it around? Cause I don't know any. There were major earthquake taking 200K lives in Indonesia, volcano eruptions that grounded the whole Europe(and beyond) fleets resulting in billions of losses to companies, Huricanes like Catrina and Yassi to name the few, localy a Brisbane flood resulting in special taxes to cover expenses and so on from natures side...



Not at all the sort of events that I'd ever suggest made anything other than a temporary blip.



> In March 2008 Bear Sterns  sold itself to  JP Morgan at a price with more than 90% discount to the market but just 2 month later DOW was trading +10% higher, because only _after_  the crash occurred analysts  started to talk that this was the reason. Even after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in  September 15, 2008, next week DOW was trading +5% higher, when now everybody are blaming it for the crash .[
> And so many people still believe that news somehow influence markets. They say-ok, maybe the market needs some time to digest these news, but at the same time they are waiting till company announce the results and expect to see market reaction next day.



I can't comment on the DOW.  I'm only interested in what happens to my own investments here.
I've never seen anyone suggest that the Lehman's collapse was of itself responsible for the start of the GFC.  It's perhaps just a convenient time marker for so called analysts to nominate as a deciding point.

At that stage pretty much all the talking heads were saying "don't worry, nothing bad is going to happen:  just hold on to your shares, they will always recover".  Most people seemed to believe them, and obediently held on while their invested capital halved in value.  That's OK for many, it seems.



> From EW perspective, no any major financial, nature, or social events were disrupting the wave structure at any degree; or reversing short/medium/long term trends before any pattern in operation at that time was complete. It was, is and will be the fractal at all times.



I know nothing about EW.  I have noticed, however, that you, via EW apparently, have predicted the market here could fall to 1000, at the same time you were predicting a bullish future for BOQ.  Doesn't seem to make much sense to me.

If you're suggesting that current events such as war in the ME, failed recovery in Europe, discomfort re suggestions of higher interest rates plus cessation of QE in the US, possible global epidemic of Ebola, slowing in China, faltering commodity prices, etc, are having absolutely no effect on our market, then we will simply have to disagree.


----------



## rimtas (11 October 2014)

Julia said:


> I have noticed, however, that you, via EW apparently, have predicted the market here could fall to 1000, at the same time you were predicting a bullish future for BOQ.  Doesn't seem to make much sense to me.




Ok, because you are already the second person here noticing this  about ALL Ords 1000 and BOQ, I feel obligated to repeat the comparison on the bigger scale to clear any doubts  about how BOQ will buck the ALL ords trend in the long run.

 So here we go:








And not forecast yet, just assumption  about All Ords






You should have noticed, that I expect BOQ rise only when the ALL ORDS will be in a countertrend move of Wave 2, which on this scale is almost invisible. Where is the bright future here?

Where does everybody sees anticorelation, I do not understand.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 October 2014)

I think the confusion arises due to different timeframes.

As for that yellow box, I'm not saying you're wrong or right there but it's a VERY big call for a drop of that magnitude. I mean, if we end up right in the middle then that's roughly a 60% drop from the most recent peak - ouch!


----------



## McLovin (11 October 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think the confusion arises due to different timeframes.
> 
> As for that yellow box, I'm not saying you're wrong or right there but it's a VERY big call for a drop of that magnitude. I mean, if we end up right in the middle then that's roughly a 60% drop from the most recent peak - ouch!




Nope, no confusion with timeframes. How can you expect a drop of anywhere between 40%-80% over the next 18 months and then expect any stock, much less a bank, to rise in that period? Like I said, you'd have to have superb, crystal ball, timing.

I'd be watching episodes of Doomsday Preppers not trying to grab a few bucks on BOQ on the way up.


----------



## Porper (11 October 2014)

rb250660 said:


> So it's great in hindsight. Awesome




Very few understand the Wave Theory so usually come to the same conclusion as you rb2. Stick to what works for you, assuming you have a positive expectancy which is unlikely...you obviously haven't a clue about the Wave Principle.


----------



## rimtas (12 October 2014)

Agree with you, Porper. Wave Principle is quite complex, as the human nature itself.
I personally began trying to apply a rudimentary understanding of it as part of my investigation of technical methods of stock market analysis. I was keeping an hourly chart of the DOW and becoming more fascinated watching the waves unfold as Elliot and Prechter described and seeing many of my forecasts on that basis come to pass. I thought here was something not only true but _important_. It just needed some more thought and research. It took few years to understand the pattern connections and few more to develop a real trading strategy.

Previously I was like all others-trying to apply fundamental approach to the market, the quantitative technical analysis, but none of them were working, I was not able to trade using them, market doesn't reacted to the news, , earning anouncments, FED decisions or TA oscilators like ordinary thinking suggests, there was something missing to all of this. 

I understand everyone who is against EW-this is not a method which you can learn and understand "overnight", that's why many people after familiarizing themselves with a basic patterns later are throwing in the towel trying to apply it in the real markets. 
And the reason for this is the reverse thinking-to apply it successfully, you must think socionomicaly, this means you must see news, events, decisions of political and financial leaders not as the cause of future market movements, bus as the _consequences_ of past ones.  EW in not an ordinary technical analysis, it is the analysis of socionomic trends in a society. 
The example of this can be earnings announcement from the company-instead of trying to predict what it means to future market trend, it is better to understand what kind of wave(of mood) previously in operation caused this kind of earnings to reach a daylight. Knowing(assuming) what a previous wave was, you can predict what will happen next.  And so on.


----------



## rimtas (12 October 2014)

McLovin said:


> How can you expect a drop of anywhere between 40%-80% over the next 18 months and then expect any stock, much less a bank, to rise in that period?




I lost hope of trying to explain. I tried words, charts, there are still blind people out there seeing my prediction of BOQ rising next 2 years and not seeing the actual forecast on a chart where it could rise only 2 months inline with the market rise that should develop soon, and then crash next two years. Cheers.


----------



## McLovin (12 October 2014)

rimtas said:


> I lost hope of trying to explain. I tried words, charts, there are still blind people out there seeing my prediction of BOQ rising next 2 years and not seeing the actual forecast on a chart where it could rise only 2 months inline with the market rise that should develop soon, and then crash next two years. Cheers.




I saw it. I understand. I lost hope trying to make my point. Cheers.


----------



## rimtas (12 October 2014)

Let's see what sentiment is in US right now.

As of October 10, eight of the last 12 trading days had intraday moves of greater than 200 points in the Dow. Volatile days like these are a reminder for many that they need to wake up and take notice, because most people get taken by surprise. 

 Bullish stock market pundits recently held that, "a large exposure to equities remains essentially the only option for people with a 10-year or longer horizon." They still believe the market will continue to rise indefinitely because the average investor is currently disinterested in stocks and their return will fuel further advance. But the chart clearly shows an exceptional depth of public involvement. 





In fact, the bottom graph of U.S. households stock ownership, which is drawn from the Federal Reserve's latest balance sheet figures of assets and liabilities, just hit a rare extreme. According to the second-quarter figures, the public's holdings of stocks and mutual fund shares (plus life insurance company holdings of stocks and mutual fund shares) equaled 34.4% of total household financial assets. That's the highest total since the end of  bull market in 2000, when a record 39.4% of household financial assets were in stocks.
 Notice that while household stock holdings continued to rise through the start of Cycle wave IV in 1966, they eventually reversed and continued to fall even after the Dow Industrials bottomed in 1974. In fact, household share ownership slipped to a low of 10.6% in the second quarter of 1982, when the inflation-adjusted Dow also bottomed.
 This is the basic pattern: The public will hold at the front end of a bear market only to get washed out by the end. Over the course of the now-unfolding bear, a similar household contempt for stocks should carry this measure to an even lower level than in 1982.

As stocks finished their recent rally, the consensus of the experts hardened into a near monolithic belief in the inevitability of higher prices. A September 8 survey of 490 investment professionals by Carter Worth of Oppenheimer & Co. showed "a clear [bullish] consensus as to how the remainder of the year plays out." With the S&P trading just over 2000, 95% of respondents said the S&P 500 will finish the year in the black, while 89% called for further gains from then-current levels. Just 5% of respondents expected the S&P to close in the red, which would entail a fall of 7.6% from its September 8 close at 2001.54.

The biggest firms were among the most bullish. On September 8, a Bloomberg headline announced that one "Sees Decade-Long Global Expansion." A week later, the chief stock strategist at another said he was so keen on the prospect for equities that he was leaving to start his own company. "This is going to be one of the longest bull markets in history, and I wanted to take advantage of that," reported The Wall Street Journal.

 From December 31 to the closing high on September 19, the Dow Industrials gained a little over 4%. By Mania Era standards, that's a relatively mild performance. But the relentless string of record highs continually revved investors' engines. By September 12, the media was egging things along. Noting that the S&P 500 was at 2000 and "setting another record every day," the headline of a major web column stated confidently, "NASDAQ Is Poised to Top 5,000." At 4568, the NASDAQ was still 9% away from this round-number milestone and 10% from its all-time high. I don't think it will make it. But confidence has been so high that to most observers it seems inevitable. This early September graphic from the Drudge Report captures the basic sentiment:







Narrow though they were, many of even the most resolute bears succumbed to the euphoria generated by the second-to-last round of new highs.  In the first week of September, the percentage of bears as reported by Investors Intelligence slipped to just 13.3% That's the lowest total since February 1987, which was in the latter part of Primary wave 3, the strongest wave within Cycle wave V. The recent low reading accompanied a slew of bullish conversions that were so pronounced that The Wall Street Journal produced this "Missing" poster underneath the headline "Bears Turn Docile."







The long period of optimizm has made forecasters aggressively positive on stocks and the economy. An economist and an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley have just predicted S&P500 will rise 50% to 3000 by 2020, 5 years from now. I agree entirely on the 3000 number, just disagree on the index. Citibank's technical team is predicting an even faster gain, projecting the s&p500 as high as 2400 by January 2015, just three months from now. It even recommends that no one worry about seasonal weak September-October period this year. 

At the same time, the chief international economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that the "recovery from the great recession could easily extend another five years", with growth of 3,5% in 2015 and 3,8% in 2016. He's not alone. The consensus among economists is that US will enjoy years of growth at a 3% clip. 

All these predictions have their bases, but I think one of them is unconscious: the shared optimism of the crowd. Major institutions can afford the smartest economists on the planet, but  at this point is better to bet against them anyway.  Recall that the consensus has also been calling for accelerating growth in Japan and Europe. But Japan has reported a stunning 7,1% annualized rate of economic _contraction_ for April, May and June. That's depression rate. Meanwhile, Europe is on precipice of deflation, and US maybe as well. 

Will Australian markets hold? I don't think so.  In 2008-2009, there were no markets on the planet climbing against US, even currencies, commodities markets were falling. Today's extreme historical optimism is sending a message to EW minded investors/traders to be prepared for a major turn.


----------



## sails (12 October 2014)

rimtas said:


> ...Where does everybody sees anticorelation, I do not understand.




Your charts are much appreciated, Rimtas.  You clearly have a good handle on EW and it's something where I only have basic knowledge.  I look forward to your informative posts..

Not everybody understands the nuances of TA but this thread is precisely for that purpose so I don't understand the problem either!


----------



## PennD (12 October 2014)

I'm stoacked your posting here Rim!!!
I will be getting some charting software in the next week or two and look forward to sharing some charts, learning and riding these waves with you!!!
Cheers, 
Penn.


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 October 2014)

Thought I would add some observations. The G.C. Lane Stochastic Oscillator places value on the close price and this Stochastic representation shows the relationship between XAO lows and the Stochastic Oscillator over recent years. Getting near that Stoch. low now it does appear along with past resistance level 5200. The DOW closed near low on Saturday morning with around 500 points shed over the past two sessions. More down here yet I assume.


----------



## rimtas (14 October 2014)

I am not sure how to interpret DOW waves, as it looks like it just broke out of Ending Diagonal, which means it is just a start of decline, that should carry another 10% down to the 14700 area, which corresponds with around 4500 on ASX at least.
 Though there is no exact correlation between two (in terms of waves),but  if DOW enters Third wave now, I believe more panic selling we'll get here also, despite ASX already looking like it is seeking to find a first wave bottom.


----------



## rimtas (16 October 2014)

Price action and wave structure from the bottom suggests that wave i (circled) is in. Banks holding higher,  BHP made  five waves from the bottom  creating a fracturing  market into the end of decline which further confirms  that a rebound is underway.

The most likely targets for wave ii (circled, not shown), could be previous iv (5422) or (iv) (5333) wave resistance areas, or 38,2; 50; 61,8 fib retracement levels. The good target area is also a trendline from 2012 low which in October runs through 5380-5420 level. 
Second waves can retrace up to 99% but in this case I expect a rally will be minimal, carrying prices another ~3-4% higher from todays levels.


----------



## dlineinvestor (16 October 2014)

Guys,
What do we have here ?
Bearish Megaphone ??
Give us your input ... this could end up with some wild swings in the near future.
Good for traders but if this breaks downward the projection is quite huge. Not good if you want to buy stocks
Cheers,


----------



## rimtas (16 October 2014)

It is bullish, just not sure for how long.

Cash is a bit different from your futures chart, but the message is the same.


----------



## dlineinvestor (16 October 2014)

Hi Rimtas,

Thank's for the input, I don't see how it's bullish, feel fre to enlighten me on a possible label or meaning behind your call.

I guess it's wait and see ..


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 October 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> More down here yet I assume.



Interestingly the low was put in on Monday the 13th/10 while the heavy down Wednesday 15th/10 held strong. Close up of previous chart after one week. Probably oversold and a bounce in play. 5350 had several hits for support before so might be some resistance. Hope not as I am long stocks.


----------



## dlineinvestor (19 October 2014)

If a higher low is formed at 5250 area then it's up from there, if that breaks to Mon's low and doesn't hold then a lower low from Monday level is the last chance for this recovery.


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 October 2014)

dlineinvestor said:


> If a higher low is formed at 5250 area then it's up from there, if that breaks to Mon's low and doesn't hold then a lower low from Monday level is the last chance for this recovery.



The type of low is another factor to consider. A vee bottom or a period of consolidation. Wonder what the Mr. Bigs are going to do?


----------



## CanOz (19 October 2014)

Here's my take for a bit of fun....

I reckon the wedge pattern is in play and we see a retest of that around 5400...That also the last value area. If that fails then i'm punting on a test of 4600, but not before Christmas. I still reckon we'll have a :chimney Rally....but it might be another short covering rally from a newer low after 5100 is taken out.

Heres a daily and weekly of the SPI...


----------



## SuperGlue (19 October 2014)

More than 1/3 of Dow stocks to report on Monday onwards.
So will be interesting week ahead.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mo...this-week-2014-10-19?link=MW_home_latest_news


----------



## Wysiwyg (23 November 2014)

Chart below shows what appears to be the peak & trough of a divergence between XAO and DJIA. Following this there could be a convergence or DJIA could join us and possibly accelerate our down trend. DJIA white, XAO black.


----------



## Sean K (28 November 2014)

There's obviously some massive long term support in the blue area, although the MACD is falling over at the moment. 




Buy with long term with confidence until that is broken.


----------



## Logique (30 November 2014)

Really apreciate everyone's contributions to this thread, thanks so much.  

I had a look at this in my own way.  As far as I can see, on monthly data it's not looking too brilliant for the XAO.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 December 2014)

Nikkei about to break 2007 high while XAO languishes well below 2007 highs. Certainly tough going with the resource boom over. FTSE walking the all time high line. Dow nudging 18000, President says skip Moon, we're going to Mars. 

Monthly chart.

Dow - Black
XAO - White
Nikkei - Yellow
FTSE - Blue


----------



## piggybank (15 December 2014)

Well there we are - just a bee's dick away from the low in October. I wonder how many of the "so called" experts expected it to be below the 5,000 mark going into next year? I'm not saying it will but the odds are getting shorter... Click on the chart if you want it larger!!

​


----------



## notting (15 December 2014)

I'm hearing Santa.
Oils turning.
And Gold is coming off.


----------



## Paavfc (15 December 2014)

piggybank said:


> Well there we are - just a bee's dick away from the low in October. I wonder how many of the "so called" experts expected it to be below the 5,000 mark going into next year? I'm not saying it will but the odds are getting shorter... Click on the chart if you want it larger!!
> 
> View attachment 60755​




Decent rebound off the lows today..5000 no chance in fact I see 5495 by years end..


----------



## PinguPingu (16 December 2014)

This is usually when the superfunds step in and buy up the big franked divvie stocks, not sure if they'll pull off an 11th hour santa rally though.


----------



## TheUnknown (16 December 2014)

So called big paid experts are very bearish on OIL.......well they don't get paid big bucks for nothing. Under 5000 in next few weeks.


----------



## notting (16 December 2014)

Hangen in there,
Trying to stay above 5121
BHP is bashing it but banks are doing their thing.


----------



## Boggo (16 December 2014)

Another few days should take care of it

(click to expand)


----------



## pavilion103 (16 December 2014)

notting said:


> I'm hearing Santa. Oils turning. And Gold is coming off.




No sight of him yet


----------



## notting (16 December 2014)

He's being stuffing his sack with a lot of liquidity into Chinese banks
Announced a few big spending Chinese infrastructure projects whilst lowering interest rates over there.
And he's been sloshing the most awesome stimulus all over the joint - Oil.
I"m still giving the fat man the benefit of the doubt, but he's cutting it fine.


----------



## notting (19 December 2014)

I only have one thing to say about today and yesterdays action


----------



## nulla nulla (19 December 2014)

Todays action couldn't be described as anything else than a Christmas Rally. Merry Christmas to all those that closed out their trades in todays rally at profit. And there is still two and a half days to go. Can it go further?


----------



## Ann (1 January 2015)

Happy New Year Joe and all the crew!

To give the full picture for anyone interested please look back to this post. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=4888&page=467&p=836245&viewfull=1#post836245

Let's do an update.

Looking at the chart, if there is a retrace it may well hold at 5000. After nearly five months the All Ords is still banging its head on the overhead trendline. It looks as though it is getting a bit tired and may do a retrace. (Licks lips with buying opportunities.)
.....and now the chart.


----------



## Ann (22 February 2015)

Just updating my last chart for the All Ords. Please note this chart is set in Log scale, daily and with a view of 15 years price history.

It appears to be making another attempt to get above the long term trending resistance line. The indicators I watch are suggesting the All Ords is overbought which is not encouraging. Let's see if it can get over the line.


----------



## tech/a (22 February 2015)

It is amazing how many lines 
Can be drawn on a chart and
Be interpreted as meaningful


----------



## Bintang (22 February 2015)

tech/a said:


> It is amazing how many lines
> Can be drawn on a chart and
> Be interpreted as meaningful




I presume you mean the three straight lines?
The only line that is meaningful for me is the zig-zagging one.


----------



## tech/a (22 February 2015)

Bintang said:


> I presume you mean the three straight lines?
> The only line that is meaningful for me is the zig-zagging one.




Ha ha 
Yeh


----------



## Sean K (22 February 2015)

tech/a said:


> It is amazing how many lines
> Can be drawn on a chart and
> Be interpreted as meaningful



Same with any T/A tech. You just think yours is better. Don't you? Your T/A is better! I have got no idea what has happened to your grammar though. Get a grip.


----------



## Logique (23 February 2015)

I tipped XAO at 5900 at year end, so how do you think I feel!

In support of Ann, a steep rise like this latest one generally needs a technical retrace, and momentum indicators look way overbought.

On the other hand, you could draw a sloping line across the top, and say it's just returning to an uptrend.


----------



## tech/a (23 February 2015)

kennas said:


> Same with any T/A tech. You just think yours is better. Don't you? Your T/A is better! I have got no idea what has happened to your grammar though. Get a grip.




Yeh mine is applied correctly.

wots rong with me gandma???


----------



## rb250660 (23 February 2015)

kennas said:


> I have got no idea what has happened to your grammar though.




Yes, I am not sure why every sentence is stopped half way through, restarted on a new line with the first word capatilised. Is it meant to be poetry? It's quite unusual.


----------



## Ann (23 February 2015)

tech/a said:


> It is amazing how many lines
> Can be drawn on a chart and
> Be interpreted as meaningful




It certainly is amazing tech/a! Although I prefer to keep to a maximum of three lines as a rule.  

I guess it is like  a group of painters drawing a portrait, no two painters will draw the same absolute view, but each portrait may be equally representative of the truth of the subject.



Logique said:


> On the other hand, you could draw a sloping line across the top, and say it's just returning to an uptrend.




Yes could be just as true Logique!


----------



## pavilion103 (23 February 2015)

rb250660 said:


> Yes, I am not sure why every sentence is stopped half way through, restarted on a new line with the first word capatilised. Is it meant to be poetry? It's quite unusual.




I think
You're being a 
Bit too harsh I think
Content is more
Important than grammer
Is.


----------



## Julia (23 February 2015)

kennas said:


> I have got no idea what has happened to your grammar though. Get a grip.



It's more a matter of style than grammar.
Starting a new line with a capital letter, where once it would have been mandatory to write all one longer sentence, gives emphasis to the content of the new line.

I'd much rather read a post set out like Tech's than a long, dense paragraph.

Your own use of "got" above is unusual.  Most people would simply say "I have no idea....."


----------



## Ves (23 February 2015)

rb250660 said:


> Yes, I am not sure why every sentence is stopped half way through, restarted on a new line with the first word capatilised. Is it meant to be poetry? It's quite unusual.




See here.


----------



## Boggo (23 February 2015)

I reckon tech/a is typing on a small screen mobile device which is going to the next line and auto capping.


----------



## skc (23 February 2015)

Boggo said:


> I reckon tech/a is typing on a small screen mobile device which is going to the next line and auto capping.




That is absolutely what I thought as well.



Ves said:


> See here.




If it was deliberate, tech/a's talent knows no bounds.


----------



## rb250660 (23 February 2015)

Boggo said:


> I reckon tech/a is typing on a small screen mobile device which is going to the next line and auto capping.




Ok, I'm betting on this as well. Set us straight tech.


----------



## Ves (23 February 2015)

skc said:


> If it was deliberate, tech/a's talent knows no bounds.




Maybe his phone is the reincarnation of Homer?


----------



## cynic (23 February 2015)

Has the "XAO Analysis and Banter" thread been merged with this one?

(I must have missed the memo!)


----------



## tech/a (23 February 2015)

Mystery solved!


----------



## Joe Blow (23 February 2015)

The XAO Banter Thread is still active.

Please post any general XAO observations and discussion over there, and any charts and technical analysis discussion in here. Thanks!


----------



## Logique (23 February 2015)

Will do Joe.

Well done Tech and Pav on the haiku


----------



## Logique (21 March 2015)

Yes it's an All Ords thread, but many, if not most, would see some correlation with the US market.

I find the volatility VIX index (US market) a useful reference. The chart below compares it monthly in recent years to the Dow. 

Seems to be 'steady as she goes' for now.


----------



## gartley (31 March 2015)

I am new to this website but thought I would share some thoughts on a potential Gartley pattern forming on the ASX200 monthly chart.  Interestingly we currently sit at 89 months since the 2009 peak.

It maybe a difficult market in the months ahead of this ends up being a valid pattern


----------



## Porper (31 March 2015)

gartley said:


> I am new to this website but thought I would share some thoughts on a potential Gartley pattern forming on the ASX200 monthly chart.  Interestingly we currently sit at 89 months since the 2009 peak.
> 
> It maybe a difficult market in the months ahead of this ends up being a valid pattern




I find these patterns can just as easily prove to be continuation setups as opposed to reversal...just like the Butterfly. I scan for them but i.m.o. not the most reliable.


----------



## gartley (31 March 2015)

Porper said:


> I find these patterns can just as easily prove to be continuation setups as opposed to reversal...just like the Butterfly. I scan for them but i.m.o. not the most reliable.





Sure they can porper. But it's no different to EW or any other pattern, we are dealing with probabilities.


----------



## gartley (1 April 2015)

Porper. Market is retreating today and i don't think a continuation of the uptrend in the near term will happen.  Just on EW, the thrust up we had from mid Jan was a fifth wave. We had a contracting triangle w4 and these are  penultimate patterns to the last move up.

In my opinion for now we headed south at least to the wave e or apex of the traiangle at 5270 on the ASX200 until the first week of May and that's how I will be trading it. Not sure thereafter.


----------



## rimtas (1 April 2015)

gartley said:


> I am new to this website but thought I would share some thoughts on a potential Gartley pattern forming on the ASX200 monthly chart.  Interestingly we currently sit at 89 months since the 2009 peak.
> 
> It maybe a difficult market in the months ahead of this ends up being a valid pattern




You can wait till ASX reaches 6050-6100  and then post your chart again, just the arow pointing down should be 10 times shorter.



gartley said:


> Just on EW, the thrust up we had from mid Jan was a fifth wave. We had a contracting triangle w4 and these are  penultimate patterns to the last move up..



Yea, this count is the main count at EWI. They still keep looking for the top that is non-existing here. Last year their counted five waves as well, after the correction and move up-they still counting five, streching the limits and fulfiling their dreams.... 
 And at the same time they are counting series one's and two's for the Aian Pasific Index, third wave for  India, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and similar countries in the region. Maybe it is a marketing strategy here-same region, two different counts, one wins for sure. But this has nothing to do with money making.


----------



## gartley (2 April 2015)

Hello Rimtas,

I posted that chart because at the current juncture there is a confluence of patterns coming together such as symmetrical Gartley pattern and  possible ABC upward correction form the March 2009 low that  has a chance of terminating between  now and Sep/Oct 2015 and the 89 month duration thus far from the 2007 peak.
This is merely an observation.

I know nothing at all about EWI and anything stated is purely my own thinking at present although I have used EW for over 17 years but do not consider myself to be a hard core Elliotician. Having said that, in my opinion the key is the pattern and not the wave count.

By the way, how is TLS))


----------



## rimtas (2 April 2015)

Thanks Gartley,
Re TLS market proved that my count was doomed, so I bited a 2% loss on that new position immediately when the Impulsive channel was broken again.  I wish I could provide another chart, but I don't like to guess and at this stage TLS wave structure is a mystery to me, I do not see any operative count upon which I would be willing to put my money. 
 I still hold my previous position which was bought last year(well below $6), but to close it I need a short signal, which is still not here.

 This means that I must simply wait for the count to resolve itself, which it always does. And while this is happening, there are other opportunities in blue chips (I trade only large).

And sorry, I can't comment on Gartley patterns, I am not familiar with them and I do not want to be.


----------



## gartley (27 May 2015)

rimtas said:


> You can wait till ASX reaches 6050-6100  and then post your chart again, just the arow pointing down should be 10 times shorter.




Well 2-3 months have passed rimtas since that textbook Gartley pattern I posted and that you bagged in post #9449. Your EW bullish count for 6100 target was a dud. There has been  textbook Ending Diagonal patterns that has been forming in the SP500 and DJIA for most of the year which always made a trend continuation a very low probability. Need to look at that first.

I have been using EW as one of my primary forms of analysis for over 15 years. Although it can be powerful, used on it's own it's not enough to find decent high probability setups on a consistent basis.

So as I type I think our market (All Ords) is about 50-60% along it's projected down move. Looks like we should get a descent move down between now and end of next week.


----------



## rimtas (27 May 2015)

gartley said:


> since that textbook Gartley pattern I posted and that you bagged in post #9449..




Thanks Gartley for your input. If you used EW for 15 years and did not find it useful, I think you got catched up by the boiling frog effect. You know-when you see that _it is true_, but can't employ it for buy/sell signals, waiting "other day" or "other month" or "other year" for situation to get clearer. You must have dropped it earlier.

 Gartley patterns are the form of technical analysis that involves wishfull thinking. You can see them everywhere you want. Like pennants, flags, Triangles(not EW triangles) and other. I do not know anyone who is making a consistent positive returns using them.  Your most recent Gartley means nothing. If you think otherwise, you are always welcome to prove your forecasting abilities in a shorter time frames, because market is a fractal and there is no any difference between longer term patterns and say, 1 min. or 1 hour chart patterns. 

I started to use EW just ~5 years ago but since the moment I catched up with it, It has got clear to me that Elliott Waves are the only truly robust methodology for financial analysis. All other approaches to market forecasting I have studied either don’t work or are transient and eventually burn out.

Market form EW perspective currently sits at the juncture where it can crash to 1000 points in the years to come. All we need to see is  five waves down(seen in weekly) from the top as a confirmation. But three wave rise from the 2009 has also other alternatives, with one of them hitting new ATH and never looking back in the next decade. 

Aside from that which method "works" and which  "don't", all that matters is how you use the knowledge to capitalize in.  
If you see a crash, tell us better how you positioned for it-you must have sold your property/ies already, closed all your bank accounts, sold your shares, moved your supper to cash,  got cash under the matress, moved into a countryside away from the city for safety.  Because after you see  big monthly bars down, you won't be able to perform those actions as opportunities will be gone and you will be tanking with the rest of the crowd. 

Australia had not experienced any crashes (or at least corrections that lasted more than 5 years) in the past 150 years. If the market will tank now, it would be already 8 years from 2007 top, so this one should be really significant, historical event, that wipes out the label of "lucky country" from everyone's minds. 

I personally open to all possibilities and I know exactly what I will do if I see any of them developing in the early stages. So don't be too much exited ahead of the time.


----------



## rimtas (28 May 2015)

gartley said:


> So as I type I think our market (All Ords) is about 50-60% along it's projected down move




I think it will not happen this time.  The entire Asian Region  is in bull market(leading by India and Japan). Correlation between ASX and DJIA is not constant, there were moments in history when US bear roared while Asian bulls soared. 

 If you are good at seeing EW patterns you should see this one. You know what it means. It means that your most recent Gartley is doomed.


----------



## gartley (2 June 2015)

Rimtas I came to this thread with a trading idea based on a high probability patterns. The one that was most apparent at the time was the Gartley pattern because there was strong confluence along with Fibonacci time analysis.*After that post a high probability 5 wave structure completed on the weekly chart of the All Ordinaries as well as cycles peaking,*adding even more weight the analysis .

I took a short position at that time which I still hold to this day and plan to hold for another 2 weeks and then I will review or at least take partial profits.

I made no mention of certainties when I made that post only that it was a high probability. It could have easily been a dud setup, but that is the business of trading.**You rubbished it, saying we had much higher to move.

In your last post re the ASX200, I know exactly what you are talking about (the impulse up from the low).

You are making one grave mistake Rimtas. You are only working with one main count. There are a myriad of EW counts possible at this juncture, and just because we got an impulse off a low does not mean it’s not part of a corrective move up(which it was because the market has tanked since then). In this case it may have been part of an expanded flat (note I say MAY). There are no certainties. In many ways EW is a lagging form of analysis because you can only fully distinguish a pattern after it’s already completed and the market moves a certain direction.

It’s one of the foundations of my toolbox alongside other methodologies. But for most who use it only in isolation, they have no more of an edge in the market than a coin flip. Ofcourse there are exceptions as some Ellioticians have developed very good and profitable startegies.

I used EW alongside my cycles analysis to find the low in March 2009 to the very week. The same the methodology was accurate accurate to within 3 months in 2007. That does not guarantee future success but I do see it as an edge.

*

Right now I have no idea if we are headed for a bear market. Absolutely no idea.**In terms of EW we have high probability Ending Diagonal that has formed in the DJIA and SP500 over the last 5-6 months and the probability is quite high these markets will tank back to the origin of these Ending Diagonals which is even more weight to add to the argument our market will decline in the weeks ahead and a major correction.

*

In so far as the Asian markets go, I don’t know, with the exception of the Nikkei225 which I think is in a Bull Market after ending the 20 year cycle in 2009. Having said that I believe it will go back down and test it’s lows first.


----------



## Porper (2 June 2015)

gartley said:


> You are making one grave mistake Rimtas. You are only working with one main count. There are a myriad of EW counts possible at this juncture




Very true, for the XJO at least.

Elliott Wave is all well and good when clarity is glaring you in the face....or using hindsight of course.

The other problem with it is that people tend to force a count on a chart purely because of their beliefs. One person on this thread has done this with the banks for example. if it's an impulse down then it is not an a-b-c correction...end of story. Stretching wave-c to 10x the length of wave a as in the NAB example is just plain wrong. Making incorrect wave counts is usually based on emotion, which we all suffer from when using a discretionary system.


----------



## Boggo (2 June 2015)

Low of the decision point area is based on a 1.272 times the last run up projected down from the most recent high.
It lines up almost perfectly with a 61.8% overall retracement.

This is significant imo, if the 5520 area doesn't hold then its brace position folks.
Just my 

(click to expand)


----------



## rimtas (2 June 2015)

Hi Gartley,
I liked your post, it is better than the previous one where you bagged me in a box. Looks like we are starting to have a discussion.

Firstly, You don't need to take credit for 2009 bottom, this was an extremely rare historical event when we had an Impusive 5 wave decline from 2007 top, and every single elliotician with some experience pointed finger to it back then. It was just too easy. I understand that we all make ourselves proud when market presents textbook opportunities and even 6 years after the event we point a finger of predicting a bottom of 2009 in every post, as if it makes any of those forecasters as good now as in 2009.

But as far as I remember, those ellioticians that predicted 2009 bottom, later just kept being bearish and counted waves up as a correction, even when market climbed above 2007 high. I do not know what your attitude was back then, you could clear this for us whith a few links, if it is not a burden for you.  

And I can present mine-I made a specific forecast  back then that DJIA will go to new all time Highs, when everyone around was counting bear waves up.  This link gives you an opportunity to see how I made tons of money back then-I was trading in US markets on high leverage on a long side since 2011. Enjoy reading:

http://spekuliantai.tv3.lt/rimtas-lt/dienorastis/irasas/1509

I understand and totally agree with you on the DJIA-it has a nice Ending Diagonal, that is pointing to a sharp reversal. These markets in US have an epic levels of optimism in the face of roaring Deflation, and I expect them to top out soon and crash. I will turn bearish if I see Impulsive decline with good momentum, but as per mine above forecast, I expect it to be only as a Second Cycle wave, retracing a good portion of 2009-2015 advance and at some point in the future new bull wave to even higher levels begins. 


But I do not have a stone hard opinion about All Ords. If you see an EW and XAO  thread, most recently I dipped into very small time frames. This means that I do not know which wave we are in in the bigger picture at the moment. All I can see that Taiwan, Korea, Hog Kong and the most other Asian Indices just broke out from few years of consolidation, suggesting new bull wave has just started. India is in the middle of a third wave and there is nothing that can kill it. 
All Ords could follow US(down) or the rest of the Asia (up) from here. Yes, It is hard to believe that there could be any separate directions, but in fact it could. 



And in regard to Fibonacci-don't make a mistake by using it on monthly  time frames. Fibonacci is a specific matrix in nature by which nature has a preference of manufacturing all living and  most non living things.  
Nature doesn't recognize time frames that are measured by humans-month or week. It only recognizes days and years, as Earth is turning round is axis in a Day and round the Sun in a Year. 
 Someone who started to count a week as seven days and  month as 30 days could have just as easily made this ratio like 10 and 25 or whatewer, and none of this makes it as a Fibonacci unit.

  I am doubt at all that Time can be measured in Fibonacci, as the only thing that is measured and proved is that electric Impulses between neurons in a human brain are sending communication signals in 0,618 intervals compared to the signal length. The rest is either a bogus or not discovered and proved by empirical observations. So Using Fibonacci to measure Time is risky and not worht to put your money on it.

A completely different thing is the Size and Form of the patterns-they are highly dependable on Fibonacci proportions, that's why FIB "works" in stock market.
 The same can be said on all other things-human brain recognizes things as "beautifull" if they have a Golden Ratio proportions-cars, music instruments, furniture, houses, pictures and so on.


By saying that I meant that Monthly Fibonacci is just a coincidence, like many things in the Market.

Porper as usual-he wants to see all waves in the market Textbook. Good luck with that.

And by the way-I do not believe people on this forum saying that they are short or long any particular stock or index, as they usually say this after the fact. I only accept when someone said about entering a market in real time, which are a minority on this forum. 

Cheers.


----------



## gartley (2 June 2015)

Refer to my post #9452: _*In my opinion for now we headed south at least to the wave e or apex of the traiangle at 5270 on the ASX200 until the first week of May and that's how I will be trading it. Not sure thereafter.*_
I don't have to prove anything to you Rimtas, but if you want to see proof in the form of brokerage statements and also the analysis that was done in 2009 and 2007 and that has now been archived from various websites due to it being such a long time ago, leave me your an email in your mailbox and I am happy to send)))

By the way, I didn't understand a word of your post in the link you posted as I can't read Lithuanian!!

The decline from 2007 to 2009 in my opinion was never best counted as an impulse if you looked at the internal subdivisions closely at the time. Although it did appear like an impulse from the weekly chart. 
Your predecessor ozwaveguy on the Elliottwave and XAO thread had it all wrong back then calling for a continuation of the bear market even after the low in March 2009 had been posted. He too claimed an impulse at the time and was waiting for waves 4 and 5 which never came.


----------



## rimtas (2 June 2015)

gartley said:


> By the way, I didn't understand a word of your post in the link you posted as I can't read Lithuanian!!.




The full analysis was written in English, just follow that link, I hope you can see atwo nice DJIA charts out there. But I can copy paste if you can't see it for whatewer reason:

http://spekuliantai.tv3.lt/rimtas-lt/dienorastis/irasas/1509

_"Long-term DJIA waves and momentum indicators

rimtas.lt | 2011-01-18 23:25 | 	





       Indicators of stock market momentum almost always announce the beginning of a huge bull market. They do so by creating a tremendously overbought condition in the initial stage of advance. While this tendency is noticeable at all degrees of trend, the Annual ROC is particulary useful in judging the strenght of  "kick-off" momentum in large waves of Cycle and Supercycle degree.

 The fact that in February 2010 this indicator almost hit 50% level is a strong confirmation that it marks the beginning of  at least  five Primary waves containing bull market, which will carry the DJIA to new all time higs.  In other words, Feb 2010 marked the start of something more than what has come to be regarded as the norm, a 1-year bull market followed by a 2 year bear(2007-2009).





  There is one more interesting development on the sentiment front (not shown)-the AAII sentiment Survey, Investors Inteligence advisors survey, Daily Sentiment Index-they all are registering much more extreme levels than they ever saw in April 2010, and some of them are registering  the most bullish readings ever in the DJIA history (fund managers are holding record low cash of only 3,4%). 



This assessment has been proved by now, with the DJIA over 600 points higher than when the sentiment figures first gave sell signals based on the old parameters back in April last year. Sentiment figures are a function of the vitality and extent of the market in progress. The fact that the sentiment readings of April 2010 top  have been exceeded is more good evidence that the Supercycle (V) Wave on the DJIA has begun. 

 Remember, this kick-off is just the setup phase. As Advance further develops, sentiment indicators should reach much more extreme levels than they ever saw in the April 2010. Put/call ratios and ten day averages are valuable as far as they go, but they are best interpreted within the context of the broad sweep of market events.


The only unclear picture is the degree of the advance, but it is possible to say that the most realistic picture is that we will experience a Supercycle (V) bull market, which contains of V   Cycle  waves, which every further Cycle wave subdivides in five Primary waves. Total amount of this Supercycle Wave (V) is 24 Primary waves, we have completed just 2 of them, so it could take a couple of decades to complete them all (in probabilistic terms)."_





And yes, please send me your previous analysis for long term market direction from the period of 2009-2011, or links to them. Don't hesistate to put them in public in this forum, as the whole purpose of writing them is a part of social interaction. Emails and private messages just kills it and takes away all the fun. I do not need your brokerage statements, this is not the purpose of discussion.


----------



## tinhat (2 June 2015)

Boggo said:


> Low of the decision point area is based on a 1.272 times the last run up projected down from the most recent high.
> It lines up almost perfectly with a 61.8% overall retracement.
> 
> This is significant imo, if the 5520 area doesn't hold then its brace position folks.
> ...




Hi Boggo

Thanks for the MTPredictor chart. Would you consider it "significant" if the XJO fell below the MTPredictor decision point because it is both the MTPredictor decision point AND the 61.8% retrace (fibonacci)? The MTPredictor decision point is not calculated using fibonacci or Elliot Wave, is that correct? It is more of a VSA indicator? So, would you consider the fall below that point significant because one indicator is confirming the other?

I spent some time the other day looking over the MTPredictor website and some of their youtube videos. Will definitely look into and consider it more.


----------



## gartley (2 June 2015)

I will try and upload them again Rimtas. Assuming it's  possible due to file size constraints on this site.

By the way, it's  not my analysis  that should be in question here but yours, because your  forecasting has not exactly been great. Have you  forgotten your last chart and forecast of post #9468????
Is the Gartley pattern doomed?))) Well not yet


----------



## Boggo (3 June 2015)

tinhat said:


> Hi Boggo
> 
> Thanks for the MTPredictor chart. Would you consider it "significant" if the XJO fell below the MTPredictor decision point because it is both the MTPredictor decision point AND the 61.8% retrace (fibonacci)? The MTPredictor decision point is not calculated using fibonacci or Elliot Wave, is that correct? It is more of a VSA indicator? So, would you consider the fall below that point significant because one indicator is confirming the other?
> 
> I spent some time the other day looking over the MTPredictor website and some of their youtube videos. Will definitely look into and consider it more.




Expand the the chart below for a basic explanation and example of the the software generated Decision Points.


----------



## tinhat (3 June 2015)

Boggo said:


> Expand the the chart below for a basic explanation and example of the the software generated Decision Points.




Thanks for the additional explanation. I don't want to drag this thread off-topic, but I assume that MTPredictor has back-tested this as an indicator? I would be curious to know its success rate at identifying a turning point. You obviously find it significant, but without knowing the success rate it is just an arbitrary point at which one can say "this may go up or it may go down form here".


----------



## Boggo (3 June 2015)

tinhat said:


> Thanks for the additional explanation. I don't want to drag this thread off-topic




Moved to here...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27370&p=871049&viewfull=1#post871049


----------



## rimtas (3 June 2015)

gartley said:


> Is the Gartley pattern doomed?))) Well not yet




I Appreciate your maners, thanks.


Well, I must agree that I was a bit early in saying that. Technically, Gartley pattern will be considered doomed if All Ords manage to advance to new highs_ before _it makes a five wave decline of Intermediate Degree. And as an Elliotician with 15 years of experience you know it. 
 Basicaly This Pattern is pointing to a Cycle Degree decline of All Ords to 1000, and if market manages  to get away in the next 12 month with just a  three wave correction down(somewhere between 4500-5000, then after the first Impulsive advance from the bottom the ods af Gartley being doomed will rise significantly. 

Just out of Curiosity(to keep discusion and entertainment going)-what is the base of Gartley patterns, what message they carry? Or they are just pure technicall qualitative patterns? 
For example-Wave Principle is a barometer of social mood, that is best reflected in price fluctuations in financial markets. It carries a message of the emotional state of market participants. And Gartley?


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 June 2015)

rimtas said:


> This Pattern is pointing to a Cycle Degree decline of All Ords to 1000




Just wondering what the timeframe would be for that?

From a more fundamental economic perspective, the All Ords dropping to 1000 is a pretty massive "blood in the streets" type of event I'd think. Outright economic depression to go with it?

I'm not really questioning the analysis as such, just trying to get my mind around it given that it's a pretty massive prediction to have the All Ords fall that far.


----------



## Porper (3 June 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Just wondering what the timeframe would be for that?
> 
> From a more fundamental economic perspective, the All Ords dropping to 1000 is a pretty massive "blood in the streets" type of event I'd think. Outright economic depression to go with it?
> 
> I'm not really questioning the analysis as such, just trying to get my mind around it given that it's a pretty massive prediction to have the All Ords fall that far.




I would take that prediction with a pinch of salt.

Prechter of Elliott Wave international has been advocating DOW to 100 for well over 10 years to my knowledge. Trouble with Elliott Wave fanatics is that they make the wave counts fit their original prediction. There is nothing in the longer term charts portending a significant retracement any time soon. Armageddon isn't coming


----------



## rimtas (3 June 2015)

Porper said:


> <...Trouble with Elliott Wave fanatics ..>
> 
> <...There is nothing in the longer term charts portending a significant retracement any time soon. Armageddon isn't coming..>





I am just one year on this forum, but as far as I can see you are the biggest EW fanatic out  there. You hold EWP as a Bibble and each time market makes a wave, you say "this can't be true", despite 80% of the moves in the market are not even mentioned in EWP.  Big Fanatics even have an Elliot Avatar, and also they do not post any analysis, just teaching everyone around how waves should look.

And of course you can see what can't happen, but it is a paradox that you can't see what can happen. If you know what can't, you should know what can.



And just for the record-longer term charts do have a small window to realize the drop to 1000, and the confluence of technical circumstances are pointing that this window is now. Not the 5 or 10 years from now.  With Eurozone spreading Deflation around the world and with Central Banks failing to boost inflation and at least keep positive sentiment afloat, the time is just perfect.

You underestimated Prechter. He predicted Deflation, when everyone was calling it a Banana and that the Deflation in current monetary system is impossible. Despite his failed forecasts for stock market top, all other markets he predicted are crashing either since 1999, others since 2007 and 2011. The only markets left are stocks. Whether they turn and crash with the rest  is yet to be seen.


----------



## gartley (4 June 2015)

I posted this chart in the Elliott Wave Analysis thread some weeks back. This thread is probably a more appropriate one so I have updated it here.

These are the Medium Term Delta Cycles for the All Ords that I use as a guide in my analysis. I say guide because it's exactly that, and NOT precision timing. All the cycle points are projections in time and their position relative to the y axis is not being considered here.

The cycles of late have been quite good. Firstly the cycle point 14 ( blue arrows pointed to all cycle point 14's occurring the last 3 years). As can be seen this cycle point always occurs approx 10 candles ( plus or minus 3) to the left of the vertical red line from 2013. Take note of the cycle points 15,16 and 1 and where they historically occur to the right of the vertical red line historically. They don't always come exactly in the same place but you get my drift. Cycle point 1 historically comes between 1/3 to 1/2 of the way between the red and blue vertical lines. 
So taking the chart at face value, we would expect some sort of cycle low between now and 17th June.

There is a caveat however. Historically cycle point 1 has been a low in an up trending market. IF the trend has changed now to down, the translation of point 1 may change and it maybe dragged further to the right by 3-4 candles. 
So at this stage not willing to stick my neck out and call a time when the downtrend will end for this leg down, because these cycles don't always work out. ( But then again nothing else works all the time


----------



## rimtas (4 June 2015)

gartley said:


> IF the trend has changed now to down, the translation of point 1 may change and it maybe dragged further to the right by 3-4 candles.





It is a good point. I wanted to comment earlier about those cycles as they seems to be good only when the market is trending in one direction, and as far as I can see they are purely based on quantitative measures and do not recognize that Market is a Fractal. Basicaly you need to adjust them now from the top in order for them to work in the same manner as in uptrend, because if trend is down, they start failing significantly providing false signals.  

But at this stage as we have new lows I think Wave Principle  points at the same result-market is declining in "threes", so Leading Diagonal is at work with final wave reaching some resistance below and then a relief rally for the rest of the year should follow.


----------



## IFocus (4 June 2015)

Ritmas are the banks looking at a 5 wave count....down?


----------



## gartley (4 June 2015)

Agreed the market declining in 3's so the pattern in play maybe corrective. I would label your 4 however as smaller degree C or even X. So most likely the wave to follow will be an impulse and  fast move or capitulation down because wave C's or X's are similar in nature to 3rd waves.

Will be an interesting next few weeks))


----------



## gartley (4 June 2015)

As a comparison to the All Ords, the German DAX medium term Delta cycles have been tracking reasonably well of late and point to continued decline once again at least till mid June.


----------



## gartley (4 June 2015)

gartley said:


> Agreed the market declining in 3's so the pattern in play maybe corrective. I would label your 4 however as smaller degree C or even X.




Apologies, meant to say smaller degree B or even X not C))


----------



## gartley (4 June 2015)

Just some thoughts on two stocks with major weightings in the All Ords. Both quite bearish and concur with earlier analysis of All Ords.  The shark pattern which is a variant of the Gartley worked out well here, not to mention the 3 lower highs which portend a capitulation move down into a low in the coming week or so.


----------



## Porper (5 June 2015)

Not overly relevant to the XAO thread but the XAO chart patterns are a mess. To me there is no high probability wave count at this time. When clarity re-establishes itself we can take a closer look. To me the CBA chart shows plenty of clarity. I have been looking for $100.00 for over a year now but was incorrect....just. I don't believe a deep retracement is underway but a long drawn out Triangle (typical of a wave-4) will be frustrating for some. Choppy seems to be the way forward....BHP etc. could well come back to life, like the Small Ordinaries.


----------



## gartley (5 June 2015)

rimtas said:


> Just out of Curiosity(to keep discusion and entertainment going)-what is the base of Gartley patterns, what message they carry? Or they are just pure technicall qualitative patterns?
> For example-Wave Principle is a barometer of social mood, that is best reflected in price fluctuations in financial markets. It carries a message of the emotional state of market participants. And Gartley?




It carries no message. In my opinion it's just another repeating pattern which integrates triangles that on some occasions terminate at specific fib harmonic ratios and show that there is some natural order within markets. If it does carry any other message it's of no interest to me. 

Our goal is to profit. Although most systems and strategies out there will only give a probability of slightly better than a coin flip to beat the market.

Trading is 85% a mental endeavor, and having a written plan with rules and discipline to follow it is the only bible to follow. The rest is just finding a strategy that suits your style.

I could not care less if EW is a barometer of social mood. Sounds like you are a Precheter student. He is a great theorist but that is of no interest to me.  Only how I can use EW to help me profit.

The Gartley as many other advanced harmonic patterns repeat over and over in timeframes ranging from minutes to monthly charts. For me personally, I found they are correct 6-7 times out of ten trades if the trade is managed properly.


----------



## gartley (5 June 2015)

The problem with EW Rimtas is that there can and almost always is more than one possible wave count in play at any given moment. Sometimes multiple wavecounts. Unless most of these wavecounts are pointed in the same direction you will not have a high probability scenario. If they differ, then better just to trade specific EW patterns.

At least with harmonic patterns like the USDCAD which I am looking at now, I know exactly where I stand.

These advanced patterns occur every day and I mainly trade the 1hr timerframe.  We have a potential bearish pattern forming. IF the market continues to rise to a level of 1.2562 or even slightly higher and then reverses and triggers a sell then I will sell. We have a R/R of 1:2 for the first objective of 1.24616 which is the 0.382 retracement and 1.24131 which is our secondary objective usually the 0.618 or 0.786 level depending on which one aligns better with earlier support or resistance and a confluence of fib levels.

If the trade is a dud then we will be stopped out just above the origin at 1.2567. It's a low risk trade offering good R/R. It will either work or it won't and if it doesn't then we take a small loss and move on to the next trade knowing that we have a 6/10 probability of being correct.

It's that simple for EW ambiguity.


----------



## rimtas (5 June 2015)

gartley said:


> The problem with EW Rimtas is that there can and almost always is more than one possible wave count in play at any given moment.




Agree totaly. Just disagree that it is a problem. For me personaly it is an advantage. When trading, you keep in mind the specific price levels which when breached gives you an edge to manage your position properly and get out or add up depending which count is in operation. 
 I often see folks who set up stop levels just by a simple percentage, even when it is clear using EW that particular stock or market is in a corection and probabilities are in favor of your dirrection. They just get stoped out at the wrong levels just to see stock will rally after.

I like trading EW, which I do very rarely, because good setups are once or twice a year.  So my trading style is slow-I start forming portolio which takes couple months and then just let it run, cutting out positions which do not follow the market. My last trade was initiated last year Nov-Dec, consisting of 12 Blue chip ASX stocks, and most of them I kept till APR-May, With TTS being the last stock to sell last week. WOW was the most and only looser, with 3% realized loss , but WBC, ANZ and BOQ were stars-managed to get out with no less than +25% from each.

I think we are heading into another buying opportunity, and I will start buying banks and commodity based stocks soon for one more trade this year(probably the last). The main reason is that commodities started a 2 year cycle up, and because Australia has  commodity based economy, relief ralies in those markets will push All Ords up.

 I personaly do not believe into a bear market from most recent 6000 peak, as most blue chip stocks are at new highs with incomplete wave structures and the only reason All Ords is as these levels is that Small Caps are dragging it down.  Most Asian indices have incomplete bull structures as well, and expect a bear wave only because DJIA has an Ending Diagonal, whis also can be fake, just  do not ads up. When bear starts, you can see this in ALL major world indices, like in 2007 or 1999-they all had complete wave structures, all aligned for a crash. 

But **** happens. That's Why I like EW-it tells you when you are wrong. Other methods just don't give you an edge EW  does. Let's say theoretically-you opened a short position based on most recent long term Gartely. let's say you have no idea what EW is. How and when do you know that particular Gartley fails? Without EW, there is no any way of knowing this unless you keep short right to the loss. That is the main reason I avoid any other quantitative methods.


----------



## rimtas (5 June 2015)

gartley said:


> View attachment 62874





Not sure which one is correct, as I got different one, probably adjusted due to South32 spinoff


----------



## rimtas (5 June 2015)

IFocus said:


> Ritmas are the banks looking at a 5 wave count....down?






I don't know which particular banks you are refering to, but ASX Financial Index is now making a (C) wave. Usually when (B) waves are short , they do not have  enough time to bring sentiment high, which could allow for a full blown third wave crash and which could be longer than wave (A) itself if  wave (B) had more time to drift sideways UP. So I think banks are approaching their bottoms and with two subdivisions left, financials should bottom out ahead of All Ords, as it always did before. And then rally begins. 
Depending on where the bottoms in banks would be, the approaching rally could be either corrective that would carry +20-30% up in some banks, or it could develop into a massive advance that would lift All Ords to ATH. I am particularly interested in NAB. I took small loss on it recently, but if it manages to bottom above $30.93. I will buy it heavily again, as with a three wave decline from April $39 Top it would look more than bullish.


----------



## gartley (6 June 2015)

rimtas said:


> Let's say theoretically-you opened a short position based on most recent long term Gartely. let's say you have no idea what EW is. How and when do you know that particular Gartley fails? Without EW, there is no any way of knowing this unless you keep short right to the loss. That is the main reason I avoid any other quantitative methods.




A Gartley is not the only pattern I trade but 1 of about 10 possible patterns, but it is quite common. A Gartley  is nothing more than a combination of an impulse followed by an abc correction. That's it!! ( 12345 followed by an abc countertrend structure)

You know when it won't work because price exceeds the origin of the impulse ie the start of wave 1, then the pattern is invalidated exactly the same way as EW based rules))

If we want to be any good at trading, countertrend moves is where most of our positioning should come from. Where these harmonic patterns differ from EW is that we trade off specific ratios and I try not to deviate as much as I can. For example lets take a simple abc correction following an impulse. In the early stages of a bull/bear such is in a wave 2  it can retest the origin of wave 1. Quite often this is a deep correction up to 0.786 or even 0.886. Other times if the market is strong it's only 0.382.

With Gartley it's simple. We are looking for a 0.786 ( other patterns 0.886).  No guessing ore forecasting Elliott Wave BS, it either works or it doesn't. But it offers a great R/R because your risk is so small. And if it does not work more than likely another high probability pattern will follow.

EW has too many counts possible at most junctures. It could be 10 counts for example. Our job as traders is to reduce the possible scenarios in order to enter high probability trades not increase them. Can you imagine working with 3 or 4 different counts 2 pointing in one direction 2 in another. What a nightmare!!!

Because harmonic patterns repeat so often, you have a good volume of trades possible on various timeframes and instruments. If one doesn't work move onto the next, with full realization that your back testing suggests that these patterns have a 6-7 /10 probability of working out the way you expect.

Since I started on this web site I have posted 3 or 4 Gartley patterns or derivatives thereof. All have been succesfull. From the monthly one of the XAO which coincided with 89 fib months from the 2007 till the USDCAD 1Hr chart posted yesterday. All in realtime and non invalidated


----------



## gartley (29 June 2015)

Well 3 months have now passed from my first post at ASF.

That post #9449 appears to have been precient and thankfully profitable on the short side although it took quite a while to play out, but it was a high probability pattern and had confluence in time as well.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=4888&page=473&p=865416&viewfull=1#post865416

That is history and where to now???? Not sure how much further down we have to go, but the decline is mirror image foldback of the advance and obvious support is at 5100. 
In time, the All Ordinaries Delta medium term timeframe suggests around mid July for this cycle to make a low.
At the moment everyone is ultra bearish and fearing the worst and so the crash we expect may have to wait for some months at least. 
So for now looking for a capitulation into the mid July cycle window and then a relief rally thereafter for some months before the next leg down.


----------



## shouldaindex (2 September 2015)

Do you all use the XAO as opposed to the XJO?

Just asking, as I know sometimes only 1 of the Dow / S&P reaches a critical level, (20.0% vs 19.7% decline for example).  Not sure if that's important.


----------



## Logique (7 September 2015)

Just a look at the long term XAO on closing price, that I did for my own benefit, happy to share.


----------



## Logique (23 September 2015)

Actually the German DAX, but many Euro markets are threatening to break out of the the tech flag pattern. Need to see if follow through happens in subsequent days.


----------



## sinner (23 September 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> Do you all use the XAO as opposed to the XJO?
> 
> Just asking, as I know sometimes only 1 of the Dow / S&P reaches a critical level, (20.0% vs 19.7% decline for example).  Not sure if that's important.




XAO and XJO are very similar (pretty much interchangeable), Dow and SP500 are very different indices, only similar in the sense of being large cap. The Russell 1000 is probably the most similar to SP500.


----------



## Logique (14 November 2015)

Just a wait and see proposition atm.

Weekly, close, at 14 Nov 2015.


----------



## Logique (8 January 2016)

The XAO is trying to change momentum, with 4,950 as support area.
Santa has left the building.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 January 2016)

How I see it.


----------



## Logique (11 January 2016)

4960 this morning, so it's the moment of truth for that support level.


----------



## Boggo (11 January 2016)

4770 area around mid next week ?

Just my 

(click to expand)


----------



## PennD (11 January 2016)




----------



## RazzaDazzla (15 January 2016)

Bullish Divergence looming on the Weekly?


----------



## Porper (16 January 2016)

RazzaDazzla said:


> View attachment 65544
> 
> 
> Bullish Divergence looming on the Weekly?




That is the Chart from the video in last nights XJO review from The Chartist.


----------



## qldfrog (16 January 2016)

I think current action is not that bullish
can we call current move a free fall in the US? not yet?


----------



## Logique (16 January 2016)

The long term quarterly chart is the US index, SPX (S&P 500).

But just to make the point, do you think we're nearer the beginning or the end, of this leg in the market.  Bear in mind, the futs say, the XAO will break to the down side of the latest trading range on Monday. 

Craig James of CommSec, will not be deterred, it's all sunshine, golden sprinkles and candy swirls.


----------



## shouldaindex (17 January 2016)

2008 GFC gives a guide to the nature of bear markets in terms of time and drawdown.  Even though it was overall bigger than most bear markets, it still had similar components.


----------



## Logique (31 January 2016)

Three touches to a weekly downtrend line, which is still in place.  It now provides a good reference point for the (longed for) future change in trend.


----------



## Boggo (10 February 2016)

Boggo said:


> 4770 area around mid next week ?
> 
> Just my




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=4888&page=475&p=894907&viewfull=1#post894907

I guess I should have said mid next month instead of mid next week (weekly chart) 
We should get a retracement from here possibly back up to around 4920 and then its decision time again - my


----------



## sammy84 (2 March 2016)

Not the most technically correct but a small head & shoulder pattern could be in play for a move back to 5,400ish


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 March 2016)

sammy84 said:


> Not the most technically correct but a small head & shoulder pattern could be in play for a move back to 5,400ish
> 
> View attachment 65996




It looks like one long downtrend to me with lower lows and lower highs. I always stand back a metre from any chart before looking at it any way closely. Just my opinion. 

gg


----------



## nulla nulla (3 March 2016)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It looks like one long downtrend to me with lower lows and lower highs. I always stand back a metre from any chart before looking at it any way closely. Just my opinion.
> 
> gg




The one year chart, for the All-Ords, appears to support GG. Lower lows and lower highs. The market would have to break out above the upper channel bar and move above 5350 before I called a recovery. More likely, in the shorter term, to go to a volatile sideways pattern in my humble opinion.


----------



## Porper (3 March 2016)

sammy84 said:


> Not the most technically correct but a small head & shoulder pattern could be in play for a move back to 5,400ish
> 
> View attachment 65996




It's a perfectly good, tradable pattern Sammy. 5400 target.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 March 2016)

Top of wedge.  Solid buying last week might suggest we hang around the top line for a while.


----------



## skc (8 March 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Top of wedge.  Solid buying last week might suggest we hang around the top line for a while.




I think there's a strong resemblance to what happened last time...




History may rhyme or it may repeat... or it may do it's own thing.

But the strong reversal today in the stocks which rallied the hardest (BHP, FMG, WOR etc) may be a sign of things to come, especially if the financials are to join in.


----------



## Logique (10 March 2016)

Testing the trendline


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 March 2016)

Looking for a good 130+ day soon.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 March 2016)

High probability of up Tues.


----------



## Wysiwyg (26 March 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> High probability of up Tues.



Any XAO Technical Analysis reasoning or just an offhand comment?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 March 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Any XAO Technical Analysis reasoning or just an offhand comment?




It broke a trendline, then went a full 3 Fib extensions before pulling back slightly.  Just a matter of too far, too quick.  So there would be a high chance of reversion up to 5170.


----------



## rnr (27 March 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Any XAO Technical Analysis reasoning or just an offhand comment?




Evidence of bullish hidden divergence, although it may not be ready to play out on the next bar (if at all).


----------



## rnr (31 March 2016)

rnr said:


> Evidence of bullish hidden divergence, although it may not be ready to play out on the next bar (if at all).
> 
> View attachment 66139




Bullish Hidden divergence was evident for the next 2 bars and finally played out today.


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 April 2016)

rnr said:


> Bullish Hidden divergence was evident for the next 2 bars and finally played out today.



Didn't play out but that is t.a. MACD can be interpreted a number of ways and my standard didn't show a divergence but the MACD does cross down below signal line suggesting further down. The lag is terrible though.


----------



## rnr (6 April 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Didn't play out but that is t.a. MACD can be interpreted a number of ways and my standard didn't show a divergence but the MACD does cross down below signal line suggesting further down. The lag is terrible though.




Hi Wysiwyg

I use the Stochastic, rather than the MACD, to detect divergence.

My comment that the Bullish Hidden Divergence, as signaled, had played out was based on a higher High on the March 31st bar as well as a higher Close than the previous bar (day). Had this price action not occurred then the Hidden Bullish Divergence may still be evident.
Although this divergence played out I have not made any comment on the profitability of a trade.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 April 2016)

rnr said:


> Hi Wysiwyg
> 
> I use the Stochastic, rather than the MACD, to detect divergence.



Sorry mate. Just assumed.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 April 2016)

Breakout


----------



## craiggary (26 April 2016)

*Re: XAO Analysis*




GreatPig said:


> Well if you make enough predictions about everything, you'll eventually get a few spectacularly right.
> 
> GP




He also won a trading competition in the 80's where he increased his account by more than 400% in 4 months.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (1 June 2016)

Just sayin to all you bulls out there , that there is a serious divergence between price and the RSI on the XAO.  

Price going up.

RSI going down. 

Good luck for those entering the market this month. You will need it. 




gg


----------



## Porper (1 June 2016)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just sayin to all you bulls out there , that there is a serious divergence between price and the RSI on the XAO.
> 
> Price going up.
> 
> ...




We've been watching the divergence since Friday although it hadn't triggered then...it has now. An interim high in place. Gold similar.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (1 June 2016)

I reckon 5300 tomorrow, (as double top breakdown target).


----------



## RazzaDazzla (6 June 2016)

Strong bounce today, appears to have just exceeded the 61.8% retracement from the recent drop.

Where to next?


----------



## Wysiwyg (17 July 2016)

Basic analysis of the XAO with a monthly chart drawing a line through the two most significant peaks. In my opinion, 5800 is the area of near term interest on a monthly basis (like not tomorrow ). The two periods semicircled are obvious support areas. Mid range now.


----------



## Logique (27 August 2016)

Wouldn't surprise to see a near term pullback. But the trend seems to have changed.

Crowding into that monthly wedge of yours Wysiwyg.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 September 2016)

Looking like a 2-3 day dump in store, the 3rd day with less volatility.  

Not liking the possibility of rebound at the moment.  

Gold?


----------



## Porper (12 September 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Looking like a 2-3 day dump in store, the 3rd day with less volatility.
> 
> Not liking the possibility of rebound at the moment.
> 
> Gold?




The safe haven scenario won't play out i.m.o until the market gets the news that U.S rates are on hold again. Then it could fly.

Lots of the goldies looking to lock in lows judging by the patterns.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 September 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Looking like a 2-3 day dump in store, the 3rd day with less volatility.
> 
> Not liking the possibility of rebound at the moment.
> 
> Gold?




That played out ok.  Maybe a rise now so I can offload a few stocks from today.

Gold soon maybe Porper.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 September 2016)

50% retrace with little hesitation + a push back above the long term trendline.  Seems bullish.


----------



## Logique (22 September 2016)

Tend to agree so far Gringotts.  Upward progress from here would be very encouraging.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 October 2016)

Everyone's lines are different.  These are mine, with a possible projection.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 October 2016)

I'm reconsidering that bullish prediction from yesterday.  I think the Ords is very close to getting smashed into the red.  

Main reason - mean reversion just hasn't been happening in the last two weeks.  Combined with worldwide political instability (Russia, Malaysia, Philippines, North Korea, USA), could be the perfect storm.

[edit] Markets don't allow you a foot in both camps.  So I've started selling.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 October 2016)

This week I had 3 orders miss by a hair's breadth, missing out on the equivalent of 3 weeks of expected salary.  Who cares?  No one.  But that's slippage for you.  

Top line is being respected.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 October 2016)

Look out.


----------



## Roller_1 (27 October 2016)

my view - if price closes below todys close tomorrow then it will test the 200 day ma; which has provided some support/resistace recently. If that breaks then probably head towards 5200-5100 area. Which is the lower boundary of a possible major triangle pattern off the 2009 lows.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (31 October 2016)

Zoomed in.  Re-test of old support.  Now to continue southbound.


----------



## CanOz (2 November 2016)

Retest worked well GB, 

If we could eventually get back to 5243 i'd be looking for sellers there for another opportunity to short....that's a fair ask for today though. May take a day or two....


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 November 2016)

CanOz said:


> Retest worked well GB,
> 
> If we could eventually get back to 5243 i'd be looking for sellers there for another opportunity to short....that's a fair ask for today though. May take a day or two....




Yep thanks.  The low vibe around the election appears to be putting a halt on upwards movements, so it's either flat or down or small rebounds getting sold into.  Hope to close out on election day around 5150.


----------



## CanOz (2 November 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yep thanks.  The low vibe around the election appears to be putting a halt on upwards movements, so it's either flat or down or small rebounds getting sold into.  Hope to close out on election day around 5150.




Fed day, NFP and the election is certainly providing lots of volatility!


----------



## CanOz (2 November 2016)

Anyone game for longs now?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 November 2016)

CanOz said:


> Anyone game for longs now?




I'm going to try and ride it out and hope the bounce isn't very big.  Today's low = Sep low.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 November 2016)

Another perspective, with target 5189.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 November 2016)

Might get a push up now, or tomorrow.  Weekly time frames heavily oversold, so whenever it happens there should be a few green days in it.


----------



## CanOz (4 November 2016)

Key levels to overcome on the SPI today are 5188 and 5200. The difficulty here is that there is a tremendous amount of resistance in that zone. Without some kind of catalyst to spark short covering in the volumes needed to push through these levels, i think we might see these levels fail....


----------



## Quant (4 November 2016)

This Us election is a bit of a spanner in works but with a rolling 5 day range of 200 ish i think the bounce is close , generally we see a large exhaustive move at end of declines which we havent seen yet ( Bump and Run style ).  Lows are fast and obvious . I generally like Nov Opex swing lows but the decline is a tad earlier than normal this year due to the Circus . Stack of Divs next week or so which usually feeds early Nov XJO weakness . Maybe one more flush and then short burner time , suppose a lot hangs on who wins the circus ... interesting times


----------



## CanOz (4 November 2016)

I just read on Twitter that the Vix put in like 8 straight days higher, unprecedented since inception 27 years ago!


----------



## Quant (4 November 2016)

CanOz said:


> I just read on Twitter that the Vix put in like 8 straight days higher, unprecedented!




Only second time this century we have seen 8 consec red SPX days . Have to go back to 
1980 to find 9 .


----------



## CanOz (4 November 2016)

Should be an entertaining NFP release....


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 November 2016)

i think the records will get broken easily (VIX and SPX nine days of losses), 

the world just wants headlines and it will drive things down,


----------



## CanOz (4 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> i think the records will get broken easily (VIX and SPX nine days of losses),
> 
> the world just wants headlines and it will drive things down,





Any positive polls for Hilary are likily to drive the market higher.....for Trump....lower. Watch the Mexican Peso for a better election read...its the current barometer for Trump...


----------



## Quant (4 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> i think the records will get broken easily (VIX and SPX nine days of losses),
> 
> the world just wants headlines and it will drive things down,




I am definitely not as certain as you , NFP is notorious for burning the crowded trade and thats heavily short  atm . Eyes wide open   ....


----------



## Porper (4 November 2016)

Quant said:


> Only second time this century we have seen 8 consec red SPX days . Have to go back to
> 1980 to find 9 .
> 
> 
> View attachment 68705




Lots of negative stats off Wall Street last night...S&P worst losing streak for 8 years etc.

U.S indices have only declined marginally recently though...XJO on the other hand underperformed as usual.

XJO chart a mess. Small Ords. providing better patterns and some interesting time cycles.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 November 2016)

CanOz said:


> Any positive polls for Hilary are likily to drive the market higher.....for Trump....lower. Watch the Mexican Peso for a better election read...its the current barometer for Trump...




Would you have a peso chart please?

I agree with Porper re small Ords.  I think technology will be the World's saviour in many ways.  Expect it to be bigger than even Turnbull imagined.  Of course only 1 in 1000 might make it, but yeh I'm liking technology a lot.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 November 2016)

Brexit style recovery likely.  Everything else matches so far.  

Later on, the Abyss.  Trump better have a bloody good speech handy if he wins.  Frightening.


----------



## MrBurns (9 November 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Brexit style recovery likely.  Everything else matches so far.
> 
> Later on, the Abyss.  Trump better have a bloody good speech handy if he wins.  Frightening.
> 
> View attachment 68750




Give me some warning will you ?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 November 2016)

MrBurns said:


> Give me some warning will you ?




Read the thread!  All my calls have been spot on lately.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 November 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yep thanks.  The low vibe around the election appears to be putting a halt on upwards movements, so it's either flat or down or small rebounds getting sold into.  *Hope to close out on election day around 5150*.




xxx


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 November 2016)

A good day to sell.  Trump is only interested in looking after the US, and I think the Aus market will under-perform today.  SPI up strongly but I'm not feeling it.  Ords should be +138 before backing off.


----------



## gartley (10 November 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> A good day to sell.  Trump is only interested in looking after the US, and I think the Aus market will under-perform today.  SPI up strongly but I'm not feeling it.  Ords should be +138 before backing off.





We have a date with at least the 5800 handle first and new highs in the US indices. 
Thereafter IMO it's a different ball game


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 November 2016)

gartley said:


> We have a date with at least the 5800 handle first and new highs in the US indices.
> Thereafter IMO it's a different ball game




Yeh I'm back long.  That close is too strong, so 5440 new target for me.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 November 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yeh I'm back long.  That close is too strong, so 5440 new target for me.




close.  

Now not sure.  If Trump's media stays cool, then continue to around 5500.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 November 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yeh I'm back long.  That close is too strong, so *5440* new target for me.




5446 at close, 6 above the line.  Bullish, but may have a breather Monday.


----------



## Logique (12 November 2016)

I'm relaxed and comfortable, for now. Candlestick theory has something to say about long lower shadows. The US Presidential Election caused unexpected volatility around 8 November.


----------



## gartley (12 November 2016)

Logique said:


> I'm relaxed and comfortable, for now. Candlestick theory has something to say about long lower shadows. The US Presidential Election caused unexpected volatility around 8 November.
> View attachment 68772




 I am agreed. Looking at the SP500 my own cycles model suggests a move 2500+ before this long term bull market move finally becomes at risk. If history is any guide over the last 5 years, this probably won't translate into an equivalent % move in the All Ordinaries as our markets have been sluggish. Nevertheless I am expecting some positive moves in the months ahead, but the volatility may remain between now and xmas.


----------



## Porper (12 November 2016)

gartley said:


> I am agreed. Looking at the SP500 my own cycles model suggests a move 2500+ before this long term bull market move finally becomes at risk. If history is any guide over the last 5 years, this probably won't translate into an equivalent % move in the All Ordinaries as our markets have been sluggish. Nevertheless I am expecting some positive moves in the months ahead, but the volatility may remain between now and xmas.




There must be some confluence up around 2500 as the larger degree pattern (Wave-5) could terminate up at that level.

There is a slim chance of heading back down to 1800 first but low probability.

As for time...I don't have any concrete time cycles in play using Miner's methods as yet.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 November 2016)

Expecting XAO to move up somewhere between 5540-5560 (green rectangle).


----------



## gartley (13 November 2016)

Will probably stall for some weeks at those levels but ultimately have my sights set much higher on the ASX200 like 5850.

http://invst.ly/2q-ec


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 November 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Expecting XAO to move up somewhere between 5540-5560 (green rectangle).
> 
> View attachment 68796




Sold my long because it was smack bang in the middle of the green target zone at close.  Looking for a flag to form, and get back in long some time over the next 3-5 days.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 November 2016)

Critical point.  Doesn't look like pushing back up just yet.


----------



## Wysiwyg (30 November 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Sold my long because it was smack bang in the middle of the green target zone at close.  Looking for a flag to form, and get back in long some time over the next 3-5 days.



Nice green zone tag there GB. Don't know about a 3 to 5 day flag formation though. Be a bit thin on the cotton.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (1 December 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Nice green zone tag there GB. Don't know about a 3 to 5 day flag formation though. Be a bit thin on the cotton.




Thanks.  I wasn't expecting it, but the flag breakout happened.

Close up of above chart shows it respected two of my lines.  The horiz one is a Fib extension, not a support line.

5592 (yellow) should be achievable tomorrow or Mon on the back of this.


----------



## Quant (1 December 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Critical point.  Doesn't look like pushing back up just yet.
> 
> View attachment 68971




zoom out a bit further and you will see the higher time frame dynamic resistance that matters most 






Above is XJO here is XAO , much of a muchness , sorry i used XJO , i actually trade it so its habit


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 December 2016)

Getting ready to go short.

Not much in the way of a big move down.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 December 2016)

Stocks aren't reverting too well, and there's a lot of stocks undergoing major and prolonged sell offs.


----------



## Porper (5 December 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Stocks aren't reverting too well, and there's a lot of stocks undergoing major and prolonged sell offs.




Many of the mid-cap stocks that have been performing really well for many months are retracing hard. Impulsive price action lower suggests a larger correction is taking place.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 December 2016)

Porper said:


> Many of the mid-cap stocks that have been performing really well for many months are retracing hard. Impulsive price action lower suggests a larger correction is taking place.




Thanks for confirming.


----------



## skc (5 December 2016)

Porper said:


> Many of the mid-cap stocks that have been performing really well for many months are retracing hard. Impulsive price action lower suggests a larger correction is taking place.




A very notable rotation between the big caps and these formally beast-like mid caps. Apparently lots of large cap managers dipped their toes into the mid cap space to chase performance, and are now reversing course on the back of Trump-inspired large cap rally. 

However, the relative lack of liquidity in the mid cap space means that stocks are going down as fast as they went down. If you just zoom out the charts a little bit the sell off actually hasn't been that bad on a 12-month timeframe.

Take IPD... it's down some 40% in last month and a half, which sounds bad. But it's actually only back to the level where it was back in Jul, or 5 months ago.

Same can be said for
- NXT, down ~40% since Sept, and trading at April 2016 levels
- WEB, down 20% since Oct, and trading at Aug 2016 levels
- CL1, down 35% since Sept, and trading at May 2016 levels
- CAT, PME, NAN, DMP etc


----------



## Klogg (5 December 2016)

skc said:


> A very notable rotation between the big caps and these formally beast-like mid caps. Apparently lots of large cap managers dipped their toes into the mid cap space to chase performance, and are now reversing course on the back of Trump-inspired large cap rally.
> 
> However, the relative lack of liquidity in the mid cap space means that stocks are going down as fast as they went down. If you just zoom out the charts a little bit the sell off actually hasn't been that bad on a 12-month timeframe.
> 
> ...




@skc - probably a question with an obvious answer, but I'm not sure how to find it. But here goes...
Is there a way to separate the market by MC (if I wanted say, all companies b/w $100m and $3bn) and calculate the average drop on these?

I'm curious to see the effect of large cap > mid cap > large cap.


----------



## Porper (5 December 2016)

skc said:


> . If you just zoom out the charts a little bit the sell off actually hasn't been that bad on a 12-month timeframe.




Totally agree. SGR is a case in point. 25% retracement since late August but it's a blip on the weekly chart. It could even go all the way down to $3.75 (half in value and more from recent highs) and still be bullish longer term. Similar patterns in a lot of stocks...some you mention. But, it does suggest further downside before those longer term trends return.


----------



## McLovin (5 December 2016)

Porper said:


> Totally agree. SGR is a case in point. 25% retracement since late August but it's a blip on the weekly chart. It could even go all the way down to $3.75 (half in value and more from recent highs) and still be bullish longer term. Similar patterns in a lot of stocks...some you mention. But, it does suggest further downside before those longer term trends return.




Surely the arrest of those CWN execs in China had more to do with the fall in SGR than sector rotation?


----------



## skc (5 December 2016)

Klogg said:


> @skc - probably a question with an obvious answer, but I'm not sure how to find it. But here goes...
> Is there a way to separate the market by MC (if I wanted say, all companies b/w $100m and $3bn) and calculate the average drop on these?
> 
> I'm curious to see the effect of large cap > mid cap > large cap.




You can probably easily look at say ASX20 vs ASX200 vs XAO ex-200. 

There are probably very different performance between mid-cap miner vs mid-cap oiler vs mid-cap industrial, however, so a sample size that's too large will hide a lot of these big falls. So you might find that ASX20 only outperformed ASX200 by 1.5% (or something that doesn't sound very big).

If you tell me what exactly you want I will see if my platform can export an excel for the information you need.


----------



## Klogg (6 December 2016)

skc said:


> If you tell me what exactly you want I will see if my platform can export an excel for the information you need.




Thanks for the offer. I'll think about the exact data sets I need then come back, otherwise I'd be wasting your time.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 December 2016)

ASX is broken.  Behaving very unusually.

Switching systems off asap.

2017 could be the year everything dies in the ****.  Much worse than 2011 if anyone remembers that.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 December 2016)

Jesus Christ this is unbelievable!

DO any of you guys actually trade the ASX with a system?  No?  

Talking to my self as usual.


----------



## skc (19 December 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> *ASX is broken.*  Behaving very unusually.
> 
> Switching systems off asap.
> 
> 2017 could be the year everything dies in the ****.  Much worse than 2011 if anyone remembers that.




Would you like to offer more details to enable some discussion?

The ASX is working fine on my computer.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 December 2016)

skc said:


> Would you like to offer more details to enable some discussion?
> 
> The ASX is working fine on my computer.




Mean reversion is completely busted.  Worse than I've ever seen.


----------



## skyQuake (19 December 2016)

Its been quite clear for a while that theres been a rotation from small mid caps to big caps. Some mid caps funds have obviously lost their mandates!


----------



## Klogg (19 December 2016)

skyQuake said:


> Its been quite clear for a while that theres been a rotation from small mid caps to big caps. Some mid caps funds have obviously lost their mandates!




SKC's list of 'shockers' (the more recent ones anyway) definitely back this up - as does my portfolio.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 December 2016)

Bigs don't revert, and TF doesn't pay, so that's me out.  Looking to short the bejesus out of the index.


----------



## skyQuake (19 December 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Bigs don't revert, and TF doesn't pay, so that's me out.  Looking to short the bejesus out of the index.




Why would u want to fight the move? If its really a huge mandate change or a wall of super money being deployed the big caps can really go at it!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 December 2016)

skyQuake said:


> Why would u want to fight the move? If its really a huge mandate change or a wall of super money being deployed the big caps can really go at it!




Because I'm in revenge mode.  I just have to step right away.


----------



## barney (19 December 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Looking to short the bejesus out of the index.




PS  I hear your frustration Gringo!  Short I agree but looks a bit early at the moment?? ...... what levels are you looking at  .... about 40-50 points higher from here looks interesting in the short term given the 4:3 weekly ratio but timing with Xmas/time of year doesn't quite feel right at the moment to me ...... i am a Spec trader however so take my ramble with a grain of salt


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 December 2016)

skyQuake said:


> Its been quite clear for a while that *theres been a rotation from small mid caps to big caps*. Some mid caps funds have obviously lost their mandates!



Ahhh. That explains it. I was annoyed how half my watchlists were facing resistance while the Index rises.  Example with the S&P/ASX 50 and the S&P/ASX MidCap 50.  Could be at a decision point for the MidCap. Trend Up or Down?


----------



## skc (19 December 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Bigs don't revert, and TF doesn't pay, so that's me out.  Looking to short the bejesus out of the index.




Perhaps big don't revert means they are trending... take a bank or insurer and you have some pretty good trends. So trend following pays in the right space. On the other hand, what we seeing is mean reversion over longer timeframes... as SkyQ mentioned in the mid cap space, but also in goldies vs oilers.

The index tends to be quite strong over this Xmas / NY period. Apparently the day to get short is after first week of Jan.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 December 2016)

barney said:


> PS  I hear your frustration Gringo!  Short I agree but looks a bit early at the moment?? ...... what levels are you looking at  .... about 40-50 points higher from here looks interesting in the short term given the 4:3 weekly ratio but timing with Xmas/time of year doesn't quite feel right at the moment to me ...... i am a Spec trader however so take my ramble with a grain of salt




Not sure mate.  I've sort of gone a bit numb, which is what happens to me when a lot of hard work gets eroded suddenly.



skc said:


> Perhaps big don't revert means they are trending... take a bank or insurer and you have some pretty good trends. So trend following pays in the right space. On the other hand, what we seeing is *mean reversion over longer timeframes*... as SkyQ mentioned in the mid cap space, but also in goldies vs oilers.
> 
> The index tends to be quite strong over this Xmas / NY period. Apparently the day to get short is after first week of Jan.




Yes, longer, but also much weaker.  So it's still not worth playing MR at the moment, imo.


----------



## Kryzz (20 December 2016)

skc said:


> The index tends to be quite strong over this Xmas / NY period. Apparently the day to get short is after first week of Jan.




Hi SKC - do you have any stats on this?

I tried doing some numbers myself and wanted to see I was on the right track :1zhelp:

I couldn't see any notable difference in terms of performance between the first and second weeks of January. Looks like the first few weeks as a whole over the past 7 years aren't too promising (xjo stats).

Thanks


----------



## OmegaTrader (24 December 2016)

Kryzz said:


> Hi SKC - do you have any stats on this?
> 
> I tried doing some numbers myself and wanted to see I was on the right track :1zhelp:
> 
> ...




Interesting

So is the 'new year' seasonality effect actually  there or not?

It looks like early January is negative seasonally from that image.

Recently positive market moves in December.


----------



## Quant (25 December 2016)

skc said:


> Perhaps big don't revert means they are trending... take a bank or insurer and you have some pretty good trends. So trend following pays in the right space. On the other hand, what we seeing is mean reversion over longer timeframes... as SkyQ mentioned in the mid cap space, but also in goldies vs oilers.
> 
> The index tends to be quite strong over this Xmas / NY period. Apparently the day to get short is after first week of Jan.




The period from dec option expiry and NewYears is one of the strongest periods of year statistically

i have charts on this but cant upload from PC anymore , you will just have to trust me )))


----------



## Quant (25 December 2016)

Quant said:


> The period from dec option expiry and NewYears is one of the strongest periods of year statistically
> 
> i have charts on this but cant upload from PC anymore , you will just have to trust me )))




Ok lets see if this works


----------



## OmegaTrader (25 December 2016)

Quant said:


> Ok lets see if this works




My main interest is trying to time a volatility play using options straddle

IV is very low, was 10.5 down to 10.1 a few days ago.


If the market turns negative then IV spikes, so the strat is too expensive to use 

However if the market keeps going up  better to wait as IV will probably drop

Making options even cheaper..

okay 

So looking a the first chart

Day 1-6 up , peaks at day 6
Day 6-11 down, lose all gains to break even
Day 11-21 up with a small petering out at the last 3 days

From that I would conclude that January is positive overall

From the second chart

I would conclude that it is mostly sideways with a small positive bias

But really the positive trend starts at the end of January even end of February, 
as Feb is mostly sideways as well/a bit positive

March, April may, strongly positive

 and up trend finishes at end of may

Down from may to October 
Except august is pretty positive

and then positive again from end of october.

Looking at the second chart should wait until may for up trend to end. 

I haven't done the seasonality for IV

Should probably do that.

Of course seasonality is also competing with the other factors, but interesting nevertheless.

As the basis of strategy or additional factor to add to a strategy.


----------



## Quant (25 December 2016)

OmegaTrader said:


> My main interest is trying to time a volatility play using options straddle
> 
> IV is very low, was 10.5 down to 10.1 a few days ago.
> 
> ...





US indices while a guide to asx seasonality are not totally in synch , many factors influence under and over performance between us and asx markets  . this year US is basically flat since OPEX whereas XJO big overperformer


----------



## OmegaTrader (26 December 2016)

Quant said:


> US indices while a guide to asx seasonality are not totally in synch , many factors influence under and over performance between us and asx markets  . this year US is basically flat since OPEX whereas XJO big overperformer




Yeah that doesn't  help much.....

That is like saying we have a fantastic, incredible  fund great  with risk and return

But past returns are no indicator of future returns.

Asx-SP are correlated?

Of course correlation is never 100% and neither is seasonality.

But in general, I don't see why as a rule of thumb it, idea, additional factor would not help

Do the charts look similar??

I reckon a bit there...


http://investingperspectives.com/seasonality/seasonality-in-the-australian-sharemarket/




cheers


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 January 2017)

DJI 20,000 on the 20th?  (Presidential inauguration).

Then will be hard to find support.


----------



## Quant (19 January 2017)

Just quick follow up on the santa rally theme , as i stated dec opex is always my point of entry . This year low to high opex till first trading day Jan was good for around 230 points , good coin in anyones language , anyone willing to research will find this strategy has rarely failed since 2000 , from memory 2011 was the last  fail  , this is one to put in the black book as this is the most reliable 10 day period of the year


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 March 2017)

'Levels Jerry.... levels'.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 March 2017)

Heading towards a double bottom at 5676 (asx200).


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 March 2017)

Alrighty then.  Looking for a long entry.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 March 2017)

Double bottom?

I think I'm missing something here! I'm no T/A guru but I can see a double top for the beginning of January 2017 and again in mid-February and that was about (within a couple of % for the XAO and a bit more on the XJO) the same level as the top reached two years prior, after which the market declined roughly 20% to a bottom in February 2016.

Where's the double bottom? What am I missing here?


----------



## barney (7 March 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> Double bottom?
> Where's the double bottom? What am I missing here?




I think Gringo was looking much more short term Smurph ... If he played his call he likely picked up around 30 ticks but I will leave that up to him to disclose


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 March 2017)

barney said:


> I think Gringo was looking much more short term Smurph ...




I see.... 

My trades (in anything) tend to run for months or years so I'm not in the habit of looking at charts on a short term basis.

On that subject though and looking at the XAO:

All time high 6873.20 back in October 2007.

High since then of 5963.50 on 13 April 2015.

Decline to a low of 4762.10 on 10 February 2016.

Back up to 5876.08 on 9 January 2017 and 5880.90 on 16 February 2017.

So I'm thinking that either we get through the high from 2015 or alternatively we've got a double top. 

Also interesting that it's roughly evenly spaced from the post-GFC high to a bottom and back to about that high point. Top on 13 April 2015, bottom 10 months later, back roughly to the top 11 months after that so all pretty even in terms of the timing.

My investing is more based on fundamentals so I'm no chart guru that's for sure but that's my interpretation of it. We've come to a point where either we get through that post-GFC high or we fail and head back down. 

Also an interesting divergence given that the S&P500 has very clearly taken out all previous highs and if you look at it on a long term chart then the recent rise is not far off being vertical. 

Thoughts?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 March 2017)

I ended up going long at close.  High flag on 5 min Aus200.  High flag on the FTSE daily.


----------



## Logique (26 May 2017)

XAO not inspiring confidence so far in May.


----------



## Logique (27 June 2017)

A critical juncture for the XAO.  Will it pivot on oversold technical momentum indicators? See MACD and RSI in the chart under.  If not, the 200 daily EMA lays in wait, which has twice acted as support in recent months.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 June 2017)

A short video.  

And a Diamond.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 June 2017)

Good video?

Every time you trade, your beliefs are trading you.  A good system, sizing and set-up will fail without the crucial mind management.


----------



## smallwolf (28 June 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> And a Diamond.




forgive my ignorance, but what does a diamond imply or point to? I can see it in your image, but the interpretation is beyond me. (I don't have time at the moment to watch the video, and from the title, do not think the answer is there.)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 June 2017)

smallwolf said:


> forgive my ignorance, but what does a diamond imply or point to? I can see it in your image, but the interpretation is beyond me. (I don't have time at the moment to watch the video, and from the title, do not think the answer is there.)



http://thepatternsite.com/diamondb.html

The video will give you clues about how certain beliefs/attitudes will make you trade a pattern like a diamond correctly/incorrectly.  Hope that makes sense.


----------



## Logique (28 June 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Good video?
> Every time you trade, your beliefs are trading you.  A good system, sizing and set-up will fail without the crucial mind management.



Well certainly it's a _long_ video GB. But spot on about self discipline and mind control, can only admire those who can manage this consistently in their trading.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 July 2017)

Market waiting for nuclear threat to abate before any bullishness emerges.  How long will that take?


----------



## Quant (13 July 2017)

Nice sharp tweezer tops indicating plenty supply all the way down , APRA **** hanging over banks , still headwinds . 2 open bearish breakaway gaps to overcome . I'm still a seller of pops in medium term , intra well anything goes ..   we have had no typical fast sharp price isolated V low in june or july to hang a bullish hat on yet . I still wait on a exhaustive capitulation myself .


----------



## Quant (18 July 2017)

First close below 5650 brings waterfall potential


----------



## Quant (18 July 2017)

XFJ lowest close for July , next leg down on the cards


----------



## Quant (19 July 2017)

Given this chart the fact XJO got anywhere near 6000 is bordering on a miracle  

Not a lot of news/data is very positive for markets recently but the market cares not thus far  , we got Trump pump thing going on as well , I look as it as a gift

The market is mean reverting and unless earnings growth gets a rocket under it the reversion in ' price ' looks bleak for bulls , I'm happy to see pops for extreme entry . Gravity cannot be defied indefinitely


----------



## Quant (21 July 2017)

XJO the gifts keep coming  , lower highs , that 5650 wont hold forever imo ...

Yet another bearish gap coming today


----------



## Logique (24 July 2017)

Very indecisive market, and I can't see any strong indication of what will happen next. Odds probably favour the next leg being down, but no guarantee.

My understanding of the ASF threads is:
XAO Tech Analysis - is for charts
XAO Banter - is for banter - a lot of good charts going to waste on the banter thread at present


----------



## Quant (24 July 2017)

XJO once again on the edge , loving it , 5650 close area  super important once again


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 July 2017)

Breakdown looming on my particular chart of the Ords.  With a target of the previous low pivot -  5672.


----------



## SuperGlue (24 July 2017)

Will the reporting season starting from next week onward change things around?


----------



## Logique (25 July 2017)

Nice work Quant and GB.

Quant, that lower dashed line, circled at 5,500 - is it safe to assume that's a long term trendline?


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 July 2017)

The last time there was anything approaching momentum in this market it was late 2016. It has been stuck since. If you look at the underlying breadth there seems to be no standout pattern. It doesn't look like distribution or accumulation, more like disinterest!! 




My preferred pattern here is..... same. Slight moves to the edges then a rescue day back into the same old Meh! area.


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2017)

As I mentioned somewhere else.
More of the same.
Currently there is no stand out Bull
or Bearish condition that will influence
a long term change in trend either way.

BORING and very difficult for those with
longer time horizons to turn a quid.


----------



## Quant (25 July 2017)

Plenty of scope to make a quid if you ask me  with near to 1% ATR  . It might look boring but it is totally exploitable




I personally think the best trading is boring  , boring is easy  . Want excitement take up freestyle MX


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 July 2017)

Quant said:


> Plenty of scope to make a quid if you ask me  with near to 1% ATR  . It might look boring but it is totally exploitable



Yeah, there are moves, particularly intraday to a few days, I just don't think there will be resolution of a clear direction.


----------



## kid hustlr (25 July 2017)

That ATR chart just says to me buy volatility


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 July 2017)

kid hustlr said:


> That ATR chart just says to me buy volatility



Which ATR chart are you talking about?


----------



## kid hustlr (25 July 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> Which ATR chart are you talking about?



The one is quants post.

The ATR peaks are the lows


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2017)

Quant said:


> I personally think the best trading is boring , boring is easy





Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah, there are moves, particularly intraday to a few days, I just don't think there will be resolution of a clear direction.




Plus 1


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 July 2017)

Breakdown failed.  High target now back in play...5845.  

What is a whipsaw?


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 July 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Breakdown failed.



As expected...


----------



## Quant (25 July 2017)

kid hustlr said:


> That ATR chart just says to me buy volatility



ATR is a handy tool on all time frames , Models and filter


----------



## satanoperca (25 July 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Breakdown failed.  High target now back in play...5845.
> 
> What is a whipsaw?



a saw with a narrow blade and a handle at both ends, used typically by two people.

Seems you just need another person to help with your insightful analysis to create a whipsaw


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Breakdown failed.  High target now back in play...5845.
> 
> What is a whipsaw?




When it turns bearish I presume you'll be calling that the
Low range will be back in play.

Whipsaw
Up then immediately down
Down then immediately up.

Had a wife like that once.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 July 2017)

tech/a said:


> Had a wife like that once.




Yeh you probably drove her up the wall and down again.


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2017)

Not according to her second husband!


----------



## Quant (26 July 2017)

Earnings season about to get underway bigtime 



https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/2017-reporting-season-calendar-1871806


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 July 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 5845.



...


----------



## Quant (28 July 2017)

The gift that keeps on giving , happy to see XJO range forever . Alas it wont happen , I still see the path down 

We have now filled gap at 5727 , possibly some token support here , any pops gratefully accepted today though still have a downside runner so not fussed either way


----------



## Quant (30 July 2017)

After blowing through Tuesdays gap at 5727 price was rejected at Mondays breakaway gap at 5688  . What a day  . Fat pitch payoff once again


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 August 2017)

Long target 5883.  If it eventuates, it will signal a breakout from the big wedge.


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 August 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Long target 5883.  If it eventuates, it will signal a breakout from the big wedge.



Interestingly I already have a breakout on market internals.


----------



## SuperGlue (8 August 2017)

Looks like the wedge has to drag its feet a bit longer and decide which way it wants to go. Maybe a cup and handle formation on the weekly, if AI doesn't disrupt the formation.
Please DYOR


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 August 2017)

7 touches on that top trendline.  Obviously on everyone's charts.

Like  if you appreciate.  If not I won't post.


----------



## tech/a (10 August 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Like  if you appreciate. If not I won't post.




Aren't you feeling the love mate??


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 August 2017)

tech/a said:


> Aren't you feeling the love mate??



No I'm not.

Maybe some chicken and quinoa soup will help.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 August 2017)

Thanks guys - blue, Can, Cap.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 August 2017)

Still in this wedge.  When these massive sideways movements happen on stocks, the breakout/breakdown tends to be big and sustained.

If you think omens* are important, there are two in today's news, one positive, one negative. I'm on the sidelines now.

* ie. indicators of sentiment expressed in other forms.


----------



## Porper (15 August 2017)

This is the weekly XJO although same patterns/analysis as XAO.

Corrective pattern higher unfolding i.m.o. It would take a break above 6490 to be more bullish.


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 August 2017)

So the SPI has broken out. You will not see this on the XJO and Aussie CFD because of the Divs from CBA etc But shorts will be taking heat and SPI momo models could take off here,



The strong AUD and TLS could stink this up I guess..


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 August 2017)

Maybe today's the day.  With all the fakeout-breakouts, better wait til close I guess.  Unless there's an afternoon rush.  If it does close above the line, I still like 5884 as the initial Ords target.


----------



## skyQuake (17 August 2017)

False brk imo. 

As an aside, What do people look at most for charting? The futs or the index?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 August 2017)

skyQuake said:


> False brk imo.
> 
> As an aside, What do people look at most for charting? The futs or the index?




Ords definitely more reliable regarding breakouts and targets.  Can't trade it but that doesn't matter.


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 August 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Ords definitely more reliable regarding breakouts and targets.  Can't trade it but that doesn't matter.



How do you quantify that?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 August 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> How do you quantify that?




I've compared them for a specific trendline technique I use.  When used on the Ords, the targets are often met exactly.  When used on the CFD, it's close but vague.  Sometimes they mirror each other.

But the CFD broke out yesterday and the retrace today didn't really line up with anything that I could see.  Ords is still under the line at today's close  - that's quite a difference.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 August 2017)

Buying opportunity imo.


----------



## skyQuake (18 August 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Buying opportunity imo.



Why not a selling opp?


----------



## Porper (18 August 2017)

skyQuake said:


> Why not a selling opp?




Strong close but the risk is down for me. The banks have bounced following a strong impulsive leg lower into the 50% - 61.8% retracement zone. This suggests further weakness to come over the coming months.

The Small Ords (XSO) is approaching the upper boundary of the consolidation pattern that commenced at the beginning of the year. It has also chopped its way higher indicative of a corrective pattern.

Shorting opportunities in the big four for the brave.


----------



## Logique (29 August 2017)

Congratulations to anyone who can make sense of the current XAO.
To be honest, in recent months it had begun to resemble a bullish triangle to me.
But let's see overnight if it will be rescued once again from the 200EMA - US Futs not so good, but there's still a few hours until US market opens


----------



## SuperGlue (29 August 2017)

Logique said:


> But let's see overnight if it will be rescued once again from the 200EMA - US Futs not so good, but there's still a few hours until US market opens
> View attachment 72421




"Dow futures stumble more than 100 points after North Korea takes aim at Japan"

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...orth-korea-tensions-flare-up-again-2017-08-29
-------------
Not looking too good at the moment.


----------



## traderxxx (29 August 2017)

interesting last few days,   mr calc says spi should be trading
back at 5704 this week,   so lets see how that pans out.
would like to see a bottom at 5576  5567 (cant remember which)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 August 2017)

Yesterday saw the breakdown from the big wedge.  A close outside of the lines - first in months.  South Korea readying for conflict.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 August 2017)

skyQuake said:


> Why not a selling opp?



You're right.  That top line had *nine *tests/touches.  My thinking was that if it did break to the upside it would be a big move.  Obviously it failed and now we have a true move outside the lines (close<line).


----------



## Logique (5 September 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> You're right.  That top line had *nine *tests/touches.  My thinking was that if it did break to the upside it would be a big move.  Obviously it failed and now we have a true move outside the lines (close<line).



I'm also wondering if this is the start of a downward failure from the triangle pattern. At 5,730, a critical juncture.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 September 2017)

Logique said:


> I'm also wondering if this is the start of a downward failure from the triangle pattern. At 5,730, a critical juncture.




The other night I had a dream about the 18th as a date of significance.  Not sure what month.  Still getting my psychic app business up and running.


----------



## Logique (27 September 2017)

That looks like a breakdown of any idea of a wedge or triangle pattern in the XAO. Downside target is the height of the mast isn't it?
CBA share price looking sick, very influential on the domestic index, as with all the majors.


----------



## Logique (25 October 2017)

I admit that I'm too prone to noodling on the General Chat forum.  So, I now comment on the all Ords XAO Tech Analysis - in Bullish fashion. In the *near term*, I *can't see 6,000 pulling it up*.  Look at the attached long term chart, marked with my own hypothesis of long-term ascending triangle. 

Doubtless Tech/a will take me to task on my primitive TA skills.  Momentum. Just momentum. See long term chart below, with my hypothetical ascending triangle marks in green.


----------



## Logique (1 February 2018)

That's more like it today! Holding above 6,100


----------



## Logique (10 February 2018)

For the XAO, not hit as hard as the US in the past week, the benefits of being a perennial laggard I suppose. The chart under is actually the US DJIA, but don't kid yourself that it won't affect the XAO.
The Dow isn't a Bear yet, and I haven't seen any predictions that it will roll over in 2018. For subsequent years ..yeah we need to look at that, so many factors to consider.

So for now, I'm thinking so far, the US in a Bull market correction. It was technically near term overbought, let's face it.  
One year chart, but this is President Trump in residence.


----------



## gartley (7 April 2018)

World markets looking quite sick ATM.  Closer to home our index which is heavily weighted with bank stocks which have been in decline for a while now, look like they will accelerate this decline in the weeks/months ahead with the main ones exhibiting longer term descending triangle formations following the completion of long term impluse waves


----------



## InsvestoBoy (28 April 2018)

I'm horrible at technical analysis.

Whatever prediction I make, probably the opposite will happen.

Anyway, I was looking at the monthly chart and noticed a similarity between the recent price action and the 2013 price action when it was testing the 2009-2010-2011 resistance pattern.

In 2013 the price bumped up against the resistance pattern, it was shaky and even broke back below but led to a bumpy ~1000 point rise from there.


----------



## Logique (14 October 2018)

Sorry not enough stocks related postings from me lately. No better time than the present, with a big move in the market to make things interesting. Objective analysis can reduce any sentiment bias, and mostly helps.

So, a chart.. not with the sophistication of the Tech/a's of the world, but it will suffice for now. I think elevated volatility will be with us for a little while, at least until the US mid-term elections are completed during November. If the Democrat party gains a Congress majority, look out!
That said, this is just the personal opinion of one poster.


----------



## Logique (14 October 2018)

And one for the weekly Dow Jones over the same period. Will it hold at support/200EMA ? Battling head winds, and there's a case for technical divergence with the Jan 2018 high.


----------



## tinhat (15 October 2018)

I'm not really saying anything new here in terms of the current commentary on the market but it is worth checking out the position of the XAO on a point and figure chart. It is nearing a decision point as it is sitting at what was the resistance line during the first quarter of 2015 and also sitting near the bottom of the trend channel going back to early 2017. Depending on how you look at the chart, it could drop down below or around 5800 and still remain within the bullish channel started at the beginning of 2016.


----------



## Triple B (15 October 2018)

tinhat said:


> I'm not really saying anything new here in terms of the current commentary on the market but it is worth checking out the position of the XAO on a point and figure chart. It is nearing a decision point as it is sitting at what was the resistance line during the first quarter of 2015 and also sitting near the bottom of the trend channel going back to early 2017. Depending on how you look at the chart, it could drop down below or around 5800 and still remain within the bullish channel started at the beginning of 2016.
> 
> View attachment 89759



Have you done a count? did it reach the first target ? I need to re learn the count


----------



## tinhat (15 October 2018)

Triple B said:


> Have you done a count? did it reach the first target ? I need to re learn the count




Box size is 50 and reversal is 3x on the above chart. I am not counting from a pattern on the above thoughts but just eyeballing the trend lines on the P&F.


----------



## Triple B (15 October 2018)

OK thanks. will set mine up the same . need the practice


----------



## tinhat (15 October 2018)

Triple B said:


> OK thanks. will set mine up the same . need the practice




I'm not a very proficient user of T/A. The charting tool I use auto-selects the box size. There is a thread about P&F charting on these fora which was moderately active some time ago. I really just eye-ball charts to help in identifying trend and timing buying and selling stock picks based on bottom-up FA.


----------



## Triple B (15 October 2018)

All good . had to re- count still came up with low 9000s
If you look at the last weeks action on P&F chart it looks very normal. still bullish


----------



## tinhat (17 October 2018)

Triple B said:


> View attachment 89769
> 
> 
> 
> ...



TrippleB, a couple of observations about the charts you posted.

I'm not sure that a box size of 1 is meaningful for the XAO in proportion to a price value within the range of 6000. With the disclaimer made above that I am not really a T/A person, I vaguely recall reading that the box size should be around 2% of the price give or take a large margin. Box size and reversal multiple are very arbitrary decisions for the chartist to make, especially if plotting a chart over time when there will be significant range in price (hopefully to the upside over the long run) . I reckon someone using a reversal of 1x versus 3x would be looking for different patterns and counting methods.

My understanding is that P&F charting grew out of tape reading. In this regard I can understand how P&F could be a tool seeking to discard the noise and amplify the signal from the course of trading in a stock. Yet here are people like me looking to cutely apply it to a market index over a multi-year period, perhaps using the idea that patterns in nature recur in a fractal manner along a time scale.

P&F aims to remove noise from the trend (and trend reversal signals). This is especially so for sideways movements. The cost of that is that time is also removed as a factor. Time is not a constant on the x axis. Yet, time is money, especially in terms of opportunity cost: the lost opportunity to invest in bonds, etc and central to calculating net present value.

For me, given the above, and my earlier stated reasons for using P&F to eyeball a stock price in relation to its trend on the market, I'm not that convinced about using P&F counting methods to determine target prices is worthwhile for my style of investing. There is no one prescription as to how to size a P&F box and what reversal multiple to use. Given that I am not a T/A by breading, however, I have no empirical evidence one way or another. My targets are usually set based on F/A but entry or exit decisions may be further influenced around trend/momentul - well that is my strategy at least!


----------



## notting (17 October 2018)

Looks like she's gonna hold capt'n -


----------



## Logique (25 October 2018)

Nice Fibonacci retracements Notting.  Within a pronounced area of previous resistance/new support (?) at todays XAO close 5760, so let's see.


----------



## Triple B (25 October 2018)

Tin Hat.
The box size of 1 in the top chart represents 100 points aprox 1.66% at 6000 points. more at lower points . ie @4000points  1box =2.5% 
The price of the index moves 100 points before a box is filled.
the 3 box reversal means the price needs to have moved at least 300 points (aprox 5% before a new vertical row can be printed.
so  you can look at it as a chart of volatility without time factored in.
lots of  vertical lines within a horizontal range is 5% changes min. then add 1.66% per box . ie 6 boxes in verical row = 10% change.aprox.
from my observations the counting method seems accurate around 66% of the time .but only a small sample has been counted. mainly gold and ASX
bottom chart is 50 points per box and 150 points minimum per new vertical row and probably less useful
I can post a few charts with counts that include the ones that failed to reach target is you like. just give me a couple days.Busy on FX at the moment


----------



## tinhat (26 October 2018)

Triple B said:


> Tin Hat.
> The box size of 1 in the top chart represents 100 points aprox 1.66% at 6000 points. more at lower points . ie @4000points  1box =2.5%
> The price of the index moves 100 points before a box is filled.
> the 3 box reversal means the price needs to have moved at least 300 points (aprox 5% before a new vertical row can be printed.
> ...




Thanks for the clarification. I look forward to you posting the additional charts.

I found the rather long discussion on P&F charting which I will review on the weekend if I have the time: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/point-figure-charting-secret-weapon.802/


----------



## Logique (27 October 2018)

A white knuckle ride for the All Ords, but now very oversold.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (27 October 2018)

Logique said:


> A white knuckle ride for the All Ords, but now very oversold.
> View attachment 90006




Thanks Logique. 

It's what I'm seeing. 

I might take a hammer to the piggy bank next week. 

gg


----------



## $20shoes (28 October 2018)

One more wave up to complete a generational Elliott structure? 
It's difficult to label the higher degree count that this would create without more data, but the S&P also feels like it has one more substantial wave before a generational market top. 
Youd think this Wave 4 down would find good support around 5600.


----------



## $20shoes (28 October 2018)




----------



## Porper (28 October 2018)

$20shoes said:


> One more wave up to complete a generational Elliott structure?
> It's difficult to label the higher degree count that this would create without more data, but the S&P also feels like it has one more substantial wave before a generational market top.
> Youd think this Wave 4 down would find good support around 5600.
> 
> View attachment 90012




One of the 3 Elliott rules that can never be broken is that wave 4 can not break down through wave 1 which is the case in your red count. Also corrective patterns must not be straight line moves (your waves 2 & 4 in blue. I'll put a chart up on my take tomorrow. Bottom line is the patterns higher look corrective which is not a good sign. This has been the case off the 2009 lows.


----------



## $20shoes (28 October 2018)

oH YEAH. How silly of me to miss that easy rule!! Thank you Porper.
Your other pickup suggests they cant be straight line moves - even though I can see a very quick ABC in them, I think youre suggesting they look too impulsive?

And I think I know what youll come back with, which is the entire structure from 2009 lows is an ABC correction. But yes, would love to see your take on it. Much appreciated...and sorry about the mistake ladies and gents


----------



## Porper (28 October 2018)

$20shoes said:


> oH YEAH. How silly of me to miss that easy rule!! Thank you Porper.
> Your other pickup suggests they cant be straight line moves - even though I can see a very quick ABC in them, I think youre suggesting they look too impulsive?
> 
> And I think I know what youll come back with, which is the entire structure from 2009 lows is an ABC correction. But yes, would love to see your take on it. Much appreciated...and sorry about the mistake ladies and gents




You don't have to apologize shoes, we are all here to learn. Elliott Wave is down to interpretation as you know.

Yes, too impulsive for the corrective patterns and too choppy during most of the rallies.


----------



## $20shoes (28 October 2018)

Porper said:


> You don't have to apologize shoes, we are all here to learn. Elliott Wave is down to interpretation as you know.
> 
> Yes, too impulsive for the corrective patterns and too choppy during most of the rallies.





Thank you. Yes I do agree. I think I have a bias because in the longer term picture I want the structure to fit inside that channel. But I cant even move my red wave 3 to the end of August 2018 - that run doesnt feel impulsive enough to support this hypothesis. I can see what youre saying - the entire move up from 2009 lows looks corrective. In which case, we should be worried. 

But yes if you have time for a chart later, that would be appreciated!


----------



## Porper (29 October 2018)

$20shoes said:


> But yes if you have time for a chart later, that would be appreciated!




This is my take on the weekly chart. 6490 is significant as a push above means the rally higher off the Feb. 2016 lows cannot be a wave B as it will be greater than 1.382x the length of -A. This is a guideline only but normally holds true. If the wave count is correct, a lot of pain coming. Best case is that 6490 is taken out as the count would be more bullish. Not likely i.m.o.


----------



## Porper (29 October 2018)

Porper said:


> This is my take on the weekly chart. 6490 is significant as a push above means the rally higher off the Feb. 2016 lows cannot be a wave B as it will be greater than 1.382x the length of -A. This is a guideline only but normally holds true. If the wave count is correct, a lot of pain coming. Best case is that 6490 is taken out as the count would be more bullish. Not likely i.m.o.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





My above chart is the XJO...not XAO. Same patterns but different levels obviously.


----------



## kid hustlr (29 October 2018)

Wow Porper that's a bearish outlook if we get to there!

I've long held the view that as a market we've needed a 'cleansing' of market leaders. Our index is so heavily weighted to the big resources stocks and the banks that for me a much healthier index make up would lead to IT/Healthcare/Industrial/Consumer stocks taking on more leadership qualities.

Where are this countries market leaders (CSL is the best example!)


----------



## $20shoes (29 October 2018)

Thanks Porper. Thats actually different to the corrective pattern I had in my mind. 
What your count suggests - and correct me if Im wrong - is that we may put in a bearish (B). Then up in 5 waves to complete (C).  And then from there, with the way you have labelled your waves, we would have to then continue a downtrend? This will all unfold across many years of course, but it paints a bleak picture. That's possible of course, as we may be weighed down by the S&P500 unwinding.


----------



## Porper (29 October 2018)

$20shoes said:


> Thanks Porper. Thats actually different to the corrective pattern I had in my mind.
> What your count suggests - and correct me if Im wrong - is that we may put in a bearish (B). Then up in 5 waves to complete (C).  And then from there, with the way you have labelled your waves, we would have to then continue a downtrend? This will all unfold across many years of course, but it paints a bleak picture. That's possible of course, as we may be weighed down by the S&P500 unwinding.





Yes, that's about the sum of it. As for the downside target it depends if a running or expanded flat pattern completes. The prior could terminate around 5200 with the latter nearer 4400. No way of knowing yet, but a 5 wave leg lower should unfold which will provide the clue. Unless 6490 is overcome in which case it's up and away again.


----------



## $20shoes (29 October 2018)

Porper said:


> Yes, that's about the sum of it. As for the downside target it depends if a running or expanded flat pattern completes. The prior could terminate around 5200 with the latter nearer 4400. No way of knowing yet, but a 5 wave leg lower should unfold which will provide the clue. Unless 6490 is overcome in which case it's up and away again.




Thanks again for your time, Porper. Grasping how alternative wave counts might be unfolding is something I still struggle with - I think this comes with experience. Well I hope!


----------



## Porper (29 October 2018)

$20shoes said:


> Thanks again for your time, Porper. Grasping how alternative wave counts might be unfolding is something I still struggle with - I think this comes with experience. Well I hope!




It does come with experience but Elliott Wave isn't the Holy Grail. I believe it's best used in conjunction with other forms of analysis. Just my personal preference. There are only 3 core rules with the theory. These must always be met...then run with the wave count that abides by as many guidelines as possible. This provides the most clarity.


----------



## andymac (29 October 2018)

thankyou Porper and others for the interesting posts. i agree with your count Porper. just for fun i like to to do the maths, so my guess is maybe 4520 (xao), for a low this would be  50% retrace of wave (A) 2009-2015 and, if we were to get a fairly textbook 5 waves down from the 6481 hi with the first wave completing now and being 38% of the whole 5 waves down, this also comes in around 4520's. but as i said i just like to do the math i try to trade only what is in front of me.


----------



## Logique (30 October 2018)

Great thread everyone. 

I see mention of potential downside targets 5200 or 4400 on Elliot Wave predictions.  If so, there would be a long way to go yet!

6400 - 5200 = -18.7%
6400 - 4400 = - 31.2%


----------



## gartley (4 November 2018)

Porper said:


> This is my take on the weekly chart. 6490 is significant as a push above means the rally higher off the Feb. 2016 lows cannot be a wave B as it will be greater than 1.382x the length of -A. This is a guideline only but normally holds true. If the wave count is correct, a lot of pain coming. Best case is that 6490 is taken out as the count would be more bullish. Not likely i.m.o.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Hi porper good chart!!))

It sure has been a messy corrective move up from March 2009. Corrective waves are tricky because there can be so many variations thereof. I can't see a new high , in fact the overall long term patern looks very bearsish in terms of EW and I think we are in the early stages of larger degree wave C here.  Worse case scenario is we ultimately go back down and re test the 2009 March lows.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (4 November 2018)

Porper said:


> This is my take on the weekly chart. 6490 is significant as a push above means the rally higher off the Feb. 2016 lows cannot be a wave B as it will be greater than 1.382x the length of -A. This is a guideline only but normally holds true. If the wave count is correct, a lot of pain coming. Best case is that 6490 is taken out as the count would be more bullish. Not likely i.m.o.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




So when you're doing these counts, it looks like you're using the cash chart?

You probably realise the dividend adjusted chart looks quite different?

Doesn't it completely change the counts? This is ASX:STW, which is tracking XJO not XAO but I am guessing dividend adjusted XAO would look the same, i.e. quite different from your chart...




This chart doesn't even include franking credits which would push the return even higher.


----------



## andymac (4 November 2018)

hi investoboy , just cruising in your vicinity. so short answer is yes different count for different chart. we were looking at cash charts as they are the charts of markets we are trading. sometimes associated charts will have similar or different counts, and although counts may vary outcomes can be similar.
however- what i did notice is your chart of STW is different to mine, which makes it look more different to cash. i just checked with another data source and both of them have 2007 hi at 6652. your chart shows it at around 5400??? on my chart stw does not look that different to xjo or xao


----------



## gartley (5 November 2018)

Looking at things from a time analysis perspective. Downtrend should persist until the next cycle point low 18 in about Feb 2019 if one takes this chart at face value.  Cycle points only shown positions in time and disregard position relative to y axis.

https://invst.ly/9378y


----------



## Logique (5 November 2018)

Big week ahead, traders will be watching closely. 
The outcome of US mid terms will be significant. As will Apple's share price, will it rally.  If volatility subsides, we may some traders tempted to wade back in, the Aussie XVI is off it's recent highs


----------



## InsvestoBoy (5 November 2018)

andymac said:


> hi investoboy , just cruising in your vicinity. so short answer is yes different count for different chart. we were looking at cash charts as they are the charts of markets we are trading. sometimes associated charts will have similar or different counts, and although counts may vary outcomes can be similar.




The point is, the cash charts are lower specifically because the underlying securities paid out a lot of dividends since 2007. So if you don't adjust for those dividends, of course the return will look stunted and more like a corrective pattern.  What you are charting is simply not a reflection of reality.

You've got gartley saying they won't see a new high when in fact we already saw one.

Porper has been saying EW has a bunch of hard rules and soft guidelines...I am no EW expert but I don't think it can be called a "corrective" wave if it recently made an all time high...






> however- what i did notice is your chart of STW is different to mine, which makes it look more different to cash. i just checked with another data source and both of them have 2007 hi at 6652. your chart shows it at around 5400??? on my chart stw does not look that different to xjo or xao




Yeah, because my chart is adjusted for dividends (and ETF fees), and yours is probably not.


----------



## Porper (5 November 2018)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Porper has been saying EW has a bunch of hard rules and soft guidelines...I am no EW expert but I don't think it can be called a "corrective" wave if it recently made an all time high...
> 
> View attachment 90140




You can break through all-time highs within a corrective pattern. Yes, I stick to the cash charts (just my preference), but not including dividends still presents plenty of impulsive (strong) price action. It certainly isn't all corrective.


----------



## Logique (11 November 2018)

The inference from Mark DeCambre's Bull/Bear Indicator chart is clear enough (it is US market specific)







> *What does the falling price of oil mean for the stock market and the economy?*
> By: Mark DeCambre,  Published: Nov 10, 2018
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...bearish-signs-as-oil-prices-plunge-2018-11-10
> ... According to Goldman, its indicator at 73% marks the highest bear-market reading since the late 1960s and early 1970s, which (with a few exceptions) is consistent with returns of zero over the following 12 months. Any reading above 60% signals that subsequent returns will be lower (see chart below): ...


----------



## Logique (13 November 2018)

A higher low would be nice, but we'll need it soon!


----------



## Logique (19 November 2018)

Anyone looking for a near term daily low pivot, keep your eye on the overnight action. Valiant attempts being made here and in the US. Be safe everyone.


----------



## Logique (28 November 2018)

Interesting juncture, the risk-reward is looking more attractive isn't it


----------



## Wyatt (28 November 2018)

Looks like this is the place to post a chart with lots of colourful lines of XAO


In hindsight, the Guppy mma's paint a clear picture on this occasion


----------



## Logique (29 November 2018)

Thanks Wyatt, I don't mind admitting I could use an executive summary of what's going on in that very complex chart!


----------



## Ann (3 December 2018)

Logique said:


> Thanks Wyatt, I don't mind admitting I could use an executive summary of what's going on in that very complex chart!




Hi Logique, it is just an array of Multiple Moving Averages of price. It shows you the places of convergence of all the MAs. Some may use it to enter or exit a trade. I don't like MAs all over my charts it hides the true lines. First thing I do when I get onto my charts is turn the MAs off.

OK, I have not been watching the XAO all that closely, so decided to have a quick glance. Looking off into the future to around April 29, 2019 I see the XAO at a bit of a crossroads. It has a rising support line coming from March 6 2009 and a straight support line coming from Jan 2 2007 and an overhead coming from Feb 26 2007. The March 6 2009 rising support is about to cross the long term support line from Jan 2 2007 around April 29 2019. Let's see what happens, which path will it take? Interesting to watch.

Well just reading all that date stuff I wrote almost did my head in (still badly concussed). I will put up a chart just to show you all that previous palaver translated onto a picture.


----------



## Boggo (3 December 2018)

My two cents worth.

The daily has hit the minimum W.5 area a few days ahead of the chart time expectation.
We will have a bit of a Christmas run up but there is resistance around the 5900 area, a continuation above that would be positive with around 6000 being the next hurdle.

I am tending to think that we may see sub 5600 before we turn (I'm hoping not as I'm long on 7 stocks over two accounts).
The 50% retracement of the last up leg on the weekly is around 5600 too.


----------



## Logique (4 December 2018)

The market has a pulse. Volatility is trending down (XVI under), and the gold price hasn't exactly surprised on the upside. The brief ceasefire in the China-US trade war was liked by markets.
So who knows, will 5600 be the magic number? I don't think I'm going to win the ASF XAO tipping contest..not this year anyway


----------



## Logique (10 December 2018)

Just like a Bear, setting traps for us. Old support from 2017 looks to have failed, and a daily downtrend since Sept 2018.  Not much good news for the Bulls. 5600 likely next stop.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (10 December 2018)

Well this is what a lot of people want, catastrophe. 

They want landlords to fail, anyone with $1000 to fail (they rich)

Think the RBA getting very concerned. Would be having lot meetings. Another RBA member out talking today.


----------



## Logique (10 December 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Well this is what a lot of people want, catastrophe.
> They want landlords to fail, anyone with $1000 to fail (they rich)
> Think the RBA getting very concerned. Would be having lot meetings. Another RBA member out talking today.



The falling property market in Sydney & Melbourne will add to their concerns. Surely at minimum, it will push any interest rate increases out much further. Any new government rules on negative gearing and CGT tightening will further soften the property market.


----------



## Cam019 (10 December 2018)

Logique said:


> Just like a Bear, setting traps for us. Old support from 2017 looks to have failed, and a daily downtrend since Sept 2018.  Not much good news for the Bulls. 5600 likely next stop.
> View attachment 90698



Logique, to me support is still in play with a range of approximately 5640 - 5730. No doubt we are in a short and intermediate term downtrend but the XAO would have to close below 5640 for me to reevaluate what I am currently seeing.

XAO daily:




XAO weekly:


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 December 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Well this is what a lot of people want, catastrophe.




There's a huge difference between foreseeing that something is likely to occur versus wanting that same thing to occur.

For example I predict that in due course I'll be dead but that doesn't mean I actually want it to occur. I'd be foolish to ignore the reality that it will happen though.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 December 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Well this is what a lot of people want, catastrophe.
> 
> Think the RBA getting very concerned. Would be having lot meetings. Another RBA member out talking today.




The members of the RBA don't give a rats.

As long as they get paid for meeting every now and then, they will take their per diem and look on as the weather turns this way and that.

gg


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 December 2018)

Noting that today's decline is broadly based.

46 of the ASX50 stocks are down thus far today and all industry sectors are down.


----------



## Darc Knight (10 December 2018)

November 7 RBA revises economic growth up to 3.5%. Figures out 5th December say economic growth at 2.8%.
Two more years of a booming economy they said.


----------



## satanoperca (10 December 2018)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The members of the RBA don't give a rats.




What do you want them to do? They have very few levers to make change.
1. Decrease interest rates ? Inflate the asset/debt bubble and kick the can a bit further, deflate the dollar and increase inflation, resulting in 2. 
2. Increase interest rates ? Housing market collapse, along with the economy. Increase the dollar and makes us even more non competitive internationally, but this is in the short term. 

The RBA cannot make change without the govnuts di--kheads pulling their heads out of their arses.

What are your solutions/actions to solve the current state of affairs?


----------



## Darc Knight (10 December 2018)

satanoperca said:


> What do you want them to do? They have very few levers to make change.
> 1. Decrease interest rates ? Inflate the asset/debt bubble and kick the can a bit further, deflate the dollar and increase inflation, resulting in 2.
> 2. Increase interest rates ? Housing market collapse, along with the economy. Increase the dollar and makes us even more non competitive internationally, but this is in the short term.
> 
> ...




Is the problem that each current Government doesn't want a Recession on their watch so they won't allow interest rates to go back to normal. Now they can't use interest rates as a lever coz they're so low already.
Should we just put interest rates back to normal levels and take the pain - but each current Governments won't do it.


----------



## gartley (10 December 2018)

Global indices relentlessly selling off. Is the point of recognition almost upon us?  If the wild gyrations and wide range day bars are anything  to go by they speak volumes.)))  I have been looking at some probable downside targets for the XAO. Initial target  @ 5442( should be temporary) would the height of the downside triangle that has just broken support @ 5676.  The other obvious relationship assuming we are in an abc formation to the downside ( which we are probably NOT) is around 5178 unless c is 1.618 expansion of a. But then if we in an impulsive move down which is what it's starting to look, like then 1.618 of W1 lines up nicely with the 4784-4486 zone and major support zone.







The next 2-3 days will reveal all.  Now that support @ 5676 has broken, IF the next coutertrend rally fails to move back above the former support line @ 5676  and laves a bearish space between support and reisistance then we maybe in the early stages of an acceleration t the downside and a mirror image foldback of the advance from early 2016 till August 2018






 Time analysis suggests a continuation of the downtrend into around Feb/March 2019  when the next long to medium term cycle 18 is due taking that chart at face value based relative to when that cycle point last happened in Feb/March 2015 or 4 years ago ( 4 year cycle- numbers on chart are only points in time not price)






2019 looks like it will be a doozy in global markets!!


----------



## satanoperca (10 December 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Should we just put interest rates back to normal levels and take the pain - but each current Governments won't do it.




Simply YES, treat it as a band aid, sooner or later you have to ripe it off.

And f--k the pollies, as you pointed out, they are self serving and we would be better off without them


----------



## Boggo (10 December 2018)

And following on from gartley's technical summary (yes, possible as max W.5 range is 5380 to 5160).


----------



## kid hustlr (10 December 2018)

Trembling Hand used to have the theory about Monday Gaps always filling and if they didn't then watch out below. Theory will get tested tonight - if we can't repair from here then it may be look out below. Even more so given the contextually location.


----------



## mcgrath111 (10 December 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> Trembling Hand used to have the theory about Monday Gaps always filling and if they didn't then watch out below. Theory will get tested tonight - if we can't repair from here then it may be look out below. Even more so given the contextually location.



I think we may see some 'bargain' hunters buying tomorrow. How the DOW plays out will be interesting.


----------



## Cam019 (11 December 2018)

Cam019 said:


> Logique, to me support is still in play with a range of approximately 5640 - 5730. No doubt we are in a short and intermediate term downtrend but the XAO would have to close below 5640 for me to reevaluate what I am currently seeing.



Whoops, spoke too soon.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 December 2018)

satanoperca said:


> What do you want them to do? They have very few levers to make change.
> 1. Decrease interest rates ? Inflate the asset/debt bubble and kick the can a bit further, deflate the dollar and increase inflation, resulting in 2.
> 2. Increase interest rates ? Housing market collapse, along with the economy. Increase the dollar and makes us even more non competitive internationally, but this is in the short term.
> 
> ...




I would need to be made Emperor with unlimited powers to fix the economy and punish those responsible for the fiscal inadequacies we endure.

There are too many monkeys grinding organs in response to ephemeral data. 

gg


----------



## Cam019 (14 December 2018)

XAO establishing a falling wedge pattern with the tight end of the wedge forming around a major support area. Additionally, we have MACD bullish divergence and Twiggs Money Flow respecting zero. Looking good for a potential reversal.


----------



## Logique (14 December 2018)

Nice job Cam, I hadn't picked up on that wedge pattern


----------



## Boggo (20 December 2018)

Follow up from here...
XAO Technical Analysis

It's in the area at last, a turnaround from here by the 28th maybe or else ???

(click to expand)


----------



## Logique (23 December 2018)

I don't know where the bottom is, but we must be close to seller capitulation.
Probably nearer to the bottom than the top. ~ 5,000 looks important. 6,400 - 5,000 would be a 21% correction


----------



## tinhat (23 December 2018)

If the XAO doesn't hold up at ~5,500 (61.8% retracement of the last leg up on the fibonacci scale),

View attachment 90884


the next stop might be ~5,200 (38.2% fibonacci retracement of the post GFC bull run)



In any case, with a federal election due in May 19, I don't think any relief rally is going to give a huge or sustained bounce (dead cat bounce coming?).

The price of copper indicates that the forward outlook for the world economy has become more subdued. Is there a head and shoulders pattern forming? Copper could be heading further down before heading back up.

The USA and China are supposed to be working on a trade deal. We might have to wait and see what transpires at the end of March. And of course there is Brexit.

I had made a guess that ten years on from the GFC the XAO would have peaked at parity with the previous top (~6,800) before entering into any major correction but the third wave up from the 2009 low appears to be complete.


----------



## Ann (24 December 2018)

Just thought I would chuck my view of the XAO up here. I am seeing a long term rising support line coming from March 2009,  touched again in February 2016 and just now it appears to be feeling for that same support. Let's see if it gets that much needed support.


----------



## Logique (26 December 2018)

I do hope Mark Hulbert is right.


> Opinion: This still looks like *just a stock-market correction*, not something worse
> By Mark Hulbert - 25 Dec 2018: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...ket-correction-not-something-worse-2018-12-26
> Bear markets generally build up over months while corrections tend to be far sharper..The stock market’s recent correction has been more abrupt than you’d expect if the market were in the early stages of a major decline..[Context is the US market]


----------



## Boggo (28 December 2018)

Upcoming test of resistance in red... my 

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo (31 December 2018)

And bang, headfirst into a wall that ol' mate Trump would love to have.
Any takers on where to from here ??

(click to expand)


----------



## kid hustlr (31 December 2018)

Would have to think more downside pressure Boggo or at best range trade?


----------



## Logique (2 January 2019)

Taking a step back and looking at the big picture, and notwithstanding all the huff and puff of late, this technically can still turn out to be a routine correction. The 2005-07 market action in hindsight was an above trend bubble waiting to burst.  By comparison 2018-19 (to this point) looks more routine, even healthy. Heartening for the Bulls.


----------



## gartley (2 January 2019)

My Elliot Wave 2c worth. Looks like rally will carry further for another week or two, which will be another setup for a great shorting opportunity.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 January 2019)

Heaps of upside in the short term.  5866 tgt.


----------



## Cam019 (9 January 2019)

Alright.. so the XAO has broken out out the falling wedge and then bounced around in the marked support zone until yesterday when we have a close outside support. It will be interesting to see if it can hold this level. If it can, we could see a rally to approx. 6,000 in the near term.

If we take a look at the line chart just for a bit of clarity, we have an almost textbook inverse head and shoulders with the breakout of the support level yesterday. Looks bullish to me.


----------



## gartley (9 January 2019)

I think think this rally is a bull trap  and will probably end by Friday/Monday. This is not the big counter trend the bulls have been waiting for. Expecting market to continue bearishly until Feb/March timeframe before a multi month rally starts.
Explanations and charts in my next post to follow.


----------



## Boggo (9 January 2019)

gartley said:


> My Elliot Wave 2c worth. Looks like rally will carry further for another week or two, which will be another setup for a great shorting opportunity.




Always a possibility 

(click to expand)


----------



## gartley (9 January 2019)

Following on from post #9761, I have updated my earlier EW annotations trying to fit the what I think is the most suitable wave count that gels with the cycle work I do.







Rest assured the market will do some fancy foot work in the months ahead to confuse all of us at this juncture and taking out all the stops before starting the next major leg down. So the chances of this working out this way are slim but what I am working with at the moment and will probably change as the waves unfold.
Fixed cycles suggest a low for this leg down in Feb/March point 18. Given that we have  had a completed EW  impulse down so far, the only wave count that supports this cycles analysis is a flat or expanded flat pattern. Originally I thought that an 1-2, 1-2,1-2 pattern was unfolding but the dynamic cycles analysis in the excel spreadsheet attached does not support this wavecount at this point in time. The Dynamic cycles analysis suggest at the least a re test of the lows at 5480 but more likely a false break new low in the coming weeks. Importantly  fixed cycles chart below suggests the start of a multi month rally to cycle point 19 around mid year starting in Feb/March at cycle point green 18 which as can be seen has not been reached yet.







There are multiple time cycles coming together at  14th/15th January for a peak






Predictions and forecasting are one thing, but need to be patient and ready with the traders hat on for what actually does happen. But for now waiting patiently for a sell signal to generate in the next week))


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 January 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Heaps of upside in the short term.  5866 tgt.




5869...


----------



## Ann (16 January 2019)

I am popping up a couple of charts of the All Ords in order to link to them when I am discussing how I enter a trade. I use many indices and commodity charts to see how I feel the markets are travelling. If I don't like what I see or I get a gut reaction to wait a bit, I don't trade. I never feel the need to be in the makets all the time or from the lowest price point. I come to the markets with the attitude of a long term investor and any time I make an investment be it property, the markets or whatever I like to see good capital appreciation over time preferably with a dividend along the way. 
I am not a gambler, that is why I am very thorough with any investments I make. Do I miss out on making money this way? Yes! Do I make money investing this way? Yes! Is it stressful? No! Is it time consuming? In the initial phase yes. Over time, no.

I am not keen on what I see in the charts at the moment. They may continue to rise and I may miss out on a trade, although I am not really finding much at the moment. If I was a short seller I would be setting up a heap of trades, it may be a short seller's dream come true anytime soon. However I may be wrong.


----------



## Logique (17 January 2019)

Market volatility is going in the desired direction for the near term Bulls


----------



## Logique (21 January 2019)

Let the winners run I suppose.. XAO has retraced half of the fall since October. I think pattern theory says the breakout target is the mast height of the formation? Someone may be able to confirm..


----------



## Ann (22 January 2019)

This is the volume level for the All Ords from January 18 to part way through January 19. The red verticle line denotes the beginning of January.
I was struck by the very low level of volume so far this January as compared to the previous twelve months. _It is noticeably _different. I guess I am not the only one sitting on their hands.

Edit. The yellow line is drawn on the 700 level


----------



## Logique (7 February 2019)

I did not anticipate a V-shaped recovery, as it has been so far. With volatility down, there may be more to come, although getting oversold now.
Why do I feel my chances slipping away in the _XAO Yearly Prediction_ thread (5500). A little early yet to give up though..


----------



## Joules MM1 (7 February 2019)

Logique said:


> I did not anticipate a V-shaped recovery, as it has been so far. With volatility down, there may be more to come, although getting *oversold* now.




you mean overbought ?


----------



## Joules MM1 (7 February 2019)

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

try this one
2 x breakouts with a crossover, taking the second one might offer better r/r depending on your dispostion


----------



## Logique (7 February 2019)

Joules MM1 said:


> you mean overbought ?



Oops, yes as you say, I should have said overbought


----------



## Joules MM1 (7 February 2019)

Logique said:


> Oops, yes as you say, I should have said overbought




overbought a good thing in a ragin bull ....well, by interpretation, more of the same pressure, the chase is on ....onya straya!


----------



## Joules MM1 (9 February 2019)

alt count $xao
#ideas


interesting side notes:
in the SP200 ($xjo) cfd A circled has symmetry to C circled at 2.764%

$xjo is one of the few indexes i observe that adhere's well to typical extensions found in commods (esp 1.272, 1.414, .5236, 1.764,1.786 and .886 where that multiple is part of a structure (in other words it fits this orthodox method, fits the structure)

measures such as .618, 1.00 and 1.618 are far more common in $spx, yet even the $spx makes significant rotations on inverted 1.272's and the $dax too, whereas the $xjo tends to find extensions of 1.272, in the direction of the one-larger trend while in corrective mode...

also when a symmetric rotation occurs in the cash it also governs the cfd (front month contract) where the cfd does not exceed the same symmetry although rare, usually the other way around as the future leads the cash in most (price length and time) instances


----------



## Logique (27 February 2019)

I'm nervous. A big long V-shape run up, and it wouldn't surprise if the big houses weren't just itching to pull the trigger on a contrarian trade, notwithstanding the (nearly) Golden Cross


----------



## tinhat (28 February 2019)

Please correct me if I am wrong, but as far as I can tell from looking back at a chart of the All Ordinaries Index, the All Ords is currently stuck in the second longest recovery in its entire history. The previous all time high for the All Ords was October 2007, over eleven years ago.

As far as I can tell, the longest ever recovery in the All Ordinaries (the period it took the market to exceed its previous all time high) was fifteen years between November 1888 and December 1903.

I remember learning in Economic History at uni (decades ago) that the 1890's depression in Australia was worst than what we refer to as the great depression of the 1930s (precipitated by the Wall Street crash of 1929).

The third longest recovery was between September 1987 and April 1996 (8.5 years) although the index came within two points of that high in January 1994).

The fourth longest was between January 1970 and September 1979.

Just some food for thought.


----------



## tinhat (28 February 2019)

I think I got the third and fourth around the wrong way.


----------



## Zaxon (1 March 2019)

tinhat said:


> The previous all time high for the All Ords was October 2007, over eleven years ago.




Or if you included dividends, so the accumulation index, we surpassed 2007 a long time ago.


----------



## Logique (25 March 2019)

Starting to look interesting again, with a near term technical roll over looking likely, but how deep..
What about 1 year gold, firmly on track isn't it


----------



## Knobby22 (25 March 2019)

Red day.


----------



## Wysiwyg (25 March 2019)

The pros had some stock to sell at the run high so it took a while coming after the fastest and most point run up for many years.


----------



## gartley (20 May 2019)

Testing the upper trendline in what appears to be a wedge of sorts. What now?
A lot will depend if fakery to prop up the US  indexes continues by the trading desk at the US Federal Reserve


----------



## notting (20 May 2019)

Ding a Ling a Ling


----------



## gartley (20 May 2019)

Got a sell signal on the SPX over a week ago on the weekly and daily timeframes in the cycles system I use for the stock indices. Time will tell if it's valid or not, but have been short that index since then. So far no sells generated on the Aussie index although weekly Vix Fix has turned down, I suspect because of the election interruption. Would not be surprised to get one soon and todays gains erased in the weeks ahead.


----------



## gartley (20 May 2019)

Not much has been said about the following long term broadening pattern in the SPX.  Was expecting it to touch the upper trendline at about 3000. Not sure that will happen, US index futures under the pump tonight and it looks like volatility is not going away any time soon.


----------



## gartley (24 May 2019)

Still no weekly sell signal generated this week in the All Ords within the cycles system I use, but should think one will come by next week if market continues lower.

In the meantime the SPX contiued bearishly as was suggested by the weekly sell mentioned in the earlier post. This thing is just getting started, and last night it reached a head and shoulders (that had formed from mid May) measured move target.
However a larger one appears to have formed from mid March to now and suggests a move down to 2650 which is well supported by the cycles analysis attached


----------



## gartley (31 May 2019)

Further to last post, looks like US markets ready make some sort of capitulation move down here or EW wave 3 of 3 of 3. XAO should finally give a sell signal today off my weekly system.
So much for the post election rally hoohah


----------



## IFocus (1 June 2019)

gartley said:


> Further to last post, looks like US markets ready make some sort of capitulation move down here or EW wave 3 of 3 of 3. XAO should finally give a sell signal today off my weekly system.
> So much for the post election rally hoohah




Been watching other markets roll over (Asia / US) and the XAO not but looking like topping out given the length of run up but also aware markets can and do over extend long pass expectations as the election rally has proven.

Also looking through the ASX market plenty of break out opportunities still presenting but a number of shorts also starting to show up but I still have the gut, star signs, black arts contrary feeling there remains some strength.

Having said that I cannot help but keep second guessing this is all about catching those that have had some success from the run up from Xmas such is the way with Mr Market.


Looking at the monthly below gives a picture of the trajectory and length of the latest run up with no down months so really due for a breather not to say we will get it.




Thought I would throw up the XAO daily with the S&P 500 to show how we haven't followed through following the US.

Note the last bar on the XAO showing a little defiance for a Friday (only one bar) however the US was down Friday.


----------



## gartley (3 June 2019)

Expecting downtrend to presist in the weeks ahead as cycles system is on the verge of generating a weekly sell as VF was only just turned with plenty of room to move down which should see a complete crossover on the Cycle differential.


----------



## gartley (3 June 2019)

Continuing with previous post. Weekly sell generartion does not exactly merit taking a short position immediately as all it does is verify a that the next 1 to 5 weekly bars should be down. At this juncture expecting an upward corrective rally to start and looking for approx 6400. When a sell continuation is triggered on the daily cycles therafter will be the cue to look at taking short postions.


----------



## IFocus (11 June 2019)

Was today a blow off high?

Today sitting on a lot of open profit feeling like a legend......... markets are always contrary to what I ......feel.....or am I over thinking this?

Whats with the banks?

A couple of weeks ago I was under water now a gun investor......


----------



## Zaxon (12 June 2019)

IFocus said:


> Was today a blow off high?



Today's high was caused by Donald Trump creating a trade war with Mexico, and then telling everyone he's solved it.  Like magic!  That's would be most people's explanation for the price rise over the last couple of days (of which we sadly missed one, due to our Queen).

As I speak, the S&P is up overnight, so if that holds, would could get a good day tomorrow.


----------



## Logique (12 June 2019)

IF: I think the Aussie banks are making up for lost time. I little doubt there was investor money on the sidelines, waiting for the outcome on dividend franking. Unlikely to be the only factor in recent sp strength, but  a partial explanation.
Plenty of momentum in the wider All Ords, and possibility of a little more yet, see the upper trend line in green:


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (12 June 2019)

banks have been going well but once again (APRA today) they are hit with regulation

yet the likes of Prospa, afterpay, zippay all boom because of no regulation, and people using them thinks it great

it will drive the index down again


----------



## IFocus (13 June 2019)

Mean while back at the ranch the Indians are bunching up.

A couple of tight range days (almost a pair of tweezers ) with solid volume surely mean a top of this run up.......of course until it isn't markets are built to make a monkey of us all if only I was a mechanical trader.

Yesterday was a slightly religious day with a few candle crosses around still plenty of boom going on price wise through the market.

I will wait at this point until I see a direction I can trade.

Prediction is down.....maybe


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 June 2019)

Could be a fair drop tomorrow I reckon.  Speccies looking very uninspiring.

Or it could be just me.  I will drink coffee then have another look.  BRB.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 June 2019)

Coffee didn't help.

Price testing above a long term trendline.  *Monthly* All Ords.


----------



## IFocus (18 June 2019)

So is this a top or setup for a breakout?

So who is buying and who is selling?

Red wine isn't helping either Gingotts


----------



## PZ99 (18 June 2019)

This suggests June is historically bad and July is historically good.

Using the STW etf for example...




https://www.shortman.com.au/seasonality?q=stw


----------



## rnr (18 June 2019)

IFocus said:


> *Red wine* isn't helping either Gingotts
> 
> View attachment 95544




@IFocus 

It's so disappointing when you use the best tools available and one still can't draw a conclusion as to the most likely outcome...perhaps another couple of glasses will help!

Cheers,
Rob


----------



## IFocus (19 June 2019)

rnr said:


> @IFocus
> 
> It's so disappointing when you use the best tools available and one still can't draw a conclusion as to the most likely outcome...perhaps another couple of glasses will help!
> 
> ...




Suspect it points to a user problem rather than the tool...........


----------



## IFocus (19 June 2019)

IFocus said:


> markets are built to make a monkey of us all






IFocus said:


> Prediction is down.




Boom, just call me "Cheater"  

Trend is up.......


----------



## notting (8 August 2019)

I couldn't identify and Elliot wave if my name was Elliot and I was waving but is this one?


----------



## Porper (8 August 2019)

notting said:


> I couldn't identify and Elliot wave if my name was Elliot and I was waving but is this one?
> 
> View attachment 96648




It is generally accepted that wave 4 cannot enter the price territory of wave 1 which it does here. Some say it can't close below the wave 1 high. Either way this has transpired so it's not a valid count.


----------



## Struzball (8 August 2019)

notting said:


> I couldn't identify and Elliot wave if my name was Elliot and I was waving but is this one?




For what it's worth, if you believe in Elliot wave theory, this one fits the rules, as I understand them.
We've had a massive run up since December 2018, and these last few days has been the first sign of faltering.  Seems to be just an overdue pullback before resuming its run up to something like 7400.  I'll be looking for a top then.  Could take years to peak.

Still a bit more to go for the pullback too, in my opinion.


----------



## notting (8 August 2019)

Thanks porper


----------



## Knobby22 (8 August 2019)

Looks like the shorters are cashing out.


----------



## Logique (8 August 2019)

Indeed, looks a bit of a squeeze at this point


----------



## IFocus (24 August 2019)

XAO has formed a minor lower low and a lower high, should it follow the US market on Mondays open, but then who knows what tweets will be coming forward between now and then.

Expecting (probability) next week to breach this current move down lows, question remains will this be the final thrust down or the beginning of the seasonal weakness that often hits September-ish

A comment about short covering while I expected some their dosen't seem to be the volume that should be showing looks to me a lot of the short positions are holding firm.


----------



## Logique (30 August 2019)

XAO is looking to consolidate, and volatility is easing off after a sharp spike:


----------



## Cam019 (28 December 2019)

Here's my thoughts - ascending channel into an ascending triangle. Resistance approximately between 6,958 - 7,000. This combined with my thoughts in another thread regarding the ever increasing popularity of index investing and historically low returns on cash and bonds... it stuns me to think that the XAO won't push forward with more bullish price action above 7,000 in 2020. In saying that, stranger things have happened, so watch for a definitive break of that lower trend line for a change in sentiment.


----------



## Logique (28 December 2019)

Thanks for the post Cam.

To all, talk is cheap. Let's see your predictions on the XAO annual 2020 prediction thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/yearly-xao-prediction-thread.34455/page-6

Where btw, the highest bidder won in 2019!


----------



## Logique (28 February 2020)

Just copying this over from the Prediction thread


----------



## Logique (6 March 2020)

6 March - the _Australian Toilet Paper Index (ATPI)_ (my invention) says still too much fear in the market.  Sideline for me, watch some footy.
I must stress this is just my own opinion, the likes of poster Tech/a have better credentials to make such calls.


----------



## IFocus (9 March 2020)

While the knuckles turn white time to have a look at the chart on the weekly, you can see the GFC to the left note the impulsive moves down but nothing like we are having now so far.

But we are still in the up trend just.

So the question is will there be consolidation and bounce or follow through and continue down.

Markets hate uncertainty and no one really has a handle on where the corona virus will take us and how it will really affect the economies world wide thats before any other black swan appears as a result of the disruption.

While uncertainty remains then so the down side risk remains IMHO.


----------



## sptrawler (9 March 2020)

Good post Ifocus, things were certainly looking good, as you say it is a bit of a one each way sort of time.
One thing for sure though is, once the uncertainty has gone, usually the opportunity has also.


----------



## Cam019 (23 March 2020)

Just keeping it simple. If the XAO cannot hold 4,600, don't be surprised if we see 3100 - 3450.


----------



## Porper (23 March 2020)

Same scenario possible from an Elliott Wave perspective too.


----------



## satanoperca (23 March 2020)

The is not doubt we will test the lows of the GFC.


----------



## Boggo (23 March 2020)

In reality we are kidding ourselves if we think that extreme situations are going to comply with any sort of technical rules or expectations.

As a trader/investor with a technical approach I can't help but look for patterns an behaviour and consequently I am going to contradict myself and and post a chart that I find interesting from a Fibonacci retracement perspective.
Yes, it is picking points and making bits fit together but that is a technical approach that I make no apologies for as I can't switch off that approach even in the current conditions.

(click to expand)


----------



## Knobby22 (23 March 2020)

The Elliot Wave theorist on this site had it bottoming at 2400, so that lines up with yours Boggo.


----------



## Cam019 (31 March 2020)

XAO looking super interesting here. Looks like a bear flag forming. 38.2 retracement potentially coming into play with some confluence around the 5480 - 5620 support area. First short target could be the 127.2 extension around 3650.


----------



## Boggo (31 March 2020)

Because of significant external influences I am not putting much faith in any form of technical analysis at the moment.
Having said that I find that this is interesting for fun if nothing else.

A wave 4 primary retracement area is 38.2% to 50.0% of wave 3. Last week the XAO did retrace almost precisely to 38.2% of wave 3 but today it has progressed into the area between the two primaries.

The next theoretical area of resistance will be around 5500, let's see how it pans out from here.

(click to expand)


----------



## Logique (1 April 2020)

More in it _near term_. Volatility and index are daily trending in opposite directions, which is propitious.
No, not an April Fools Day posting


----------



## Cam019 (15 April 2020)

Cam019 said:


> XAO looking super interesting here. Looks like a bear flag forming. 38.2 retracement potentially coming into play with some confluence around the 5480 - 5620 support area. First short target could be the 127.2 extension around 3650.
> 
> View attachment 101832
> 
> ...




Watching, watching.


----------



## Logique (23 April 2020)

No shortage of opinion out there on what world financial indices are likely to do, much of it gloomy.
I feel comfortable about the XAO. It's in a 'sticky' zone between 5,000 - 5,500.
Candle theory is supportive of a base forming during 2020.

Referencing the Yearly XAO Prediction Thread, which whimsically of late is talking postcodes,
I expect someone from WA to win this year


----------



## Logique (25 April 2020)

It's only the US Nasdaq, but it doesn't seem to have received the memo. Just saying.
They're feeling the squeeze in FAAMG ville


----------



## mikejosef (26 April 2020)

Logique said:


> It's only the US Nasdaq, but it doesn't seem to have received the memo. Just saying.
> They're feeling the squeeze in FAAMG ville
> View attachment 102625



Beautiful jump off from the 50 - this is going further up imo


----------



## Logique (6 May 2020)

Whilst I remain a member.  All the best to our most excellent ASF host Joe.
It's just the US Nasdaq, May 2020. Draw your own conclusions.
Regards, Logique


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 May 2020)

Boggo said:


> Because of significant external influences I am not putting much faith in any form of technical analysis at the moment.
> Having said that I find that this is interesting for fun if nothing else.
> 
> A wave 4 primary retracement area is 38.2% to 50.0% of wave 3. Last week the XAO did retrace almost precisely to 38.2% of wave 3 but today it has progressed into the area between the two primaries.
> ...



I'd be interested in an update of this graph and your present opinion @Boggo 

gg


----------



## Boggo (7 May 2020)

Giday GG.
The All Ords (XAO) seem to be following behind the S&P 500 which seems to be in an area of decision at the moment.
Still a lot of potential external influences that could send both in either direction at short notice.
Personally, I am tending to think that we may encounter a correction to the current correction (hope that makes sense).

Two charts below, the S&P 500 is the one that we need to see break out of the current area of indecision, the XAO will follow.

(click to expand)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 May 2020)

Boggo said:


> Giday GG.
> The All Ords (XAO) seem to be following behind the S&P 500 which seems to be in an area of decision at the moment.
> Still a lot of potential external influences that could send both in either direction at short notice.
> Personally, I am tending to think that we may encounter a correction to the current correction (hope that makes sense).
> ...



Thanks mate. It looks as if it is heading down. ABC, or a 3, to me.

gg


----------



## Boggo (7 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks mate. It looks as if it is heading down. ABC, or a 3, to me.
> gg




Chart below is of PNV and i'm just using it as an example of what I watch for and would like to see happen in the two example above, particularly on the S&P 500.
Basically, into the the area of indecision, some hesitation and then turn upwards with conviction.

Insights such as kahuna1's post here is a worry for the future...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1071280/

(PNV example - click to expand)


----------



## sptrawler (7 May 2020)

Boggo said:


> Chart below is of PNV and i'm just using it as an example of what I watch for and would like to see happen in the two example above, particularly on the S&P 500.
> Basically, into the the area of indecision, some hesitation and then turn upwards with conviction.
> 
> Insights such as kahuna1's post here is a worry for the future...
> ...



IMO you and kahuna are spot on, eventually the U.S as reserve currency will be challenged, there has to be a constant that all currencies are measured against. The U.S IMO has abused its position and lost a lot of credibility post gfc.
My guess is it will be a computer algorithm, some think the gold standard will be returned, but with the computer age I thonk digital money and an algorithm will be the go.


----------



## hja (11 May 2020)

The XAO looks like it's approaching the apex of an ascending triangle, with a line starting from 5160 and  the horizontal ceiling at around 5550. A big move up or down shortly?


----------



## hja (11 May 2020)

hja said:


> The XAO looks like it's approaching the apex of an ascending triangle, with a line starting from 5160 and  the horizontal ceiling at around 5550. A big move up or down shortly?


----------



## Knobby22 (13 May 2020)

Closed flat, sounds bullish?


----------



## hja (13 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Closed flat, sounds bullish?



Or just range-bound awaiting some development to shake it up.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 May 2020)

hja said:


> Or just range-bound awaiting some development to shake it up.
> 
> View attachment 103427




This is my current take, I think the triangle/wedge/flag/whatever died in mid April.


----------



## Boggo (14 May 2020)

My  worth is that where the S&P500 goes we follow.
At the moment it's range bound but something has to give soon.

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo (19 May 2020)

Breakout attempt #3...

(click to expand)


----------



## rederob (19 May 2020)

Boggo said:


> Breakout attempt #3...
> 
> (click to expand)
> View attachment 103599



Is that the right chart for our *Australian *XAO?


----------



## Boggo (19 May 2020)

rederob said:


> Is that the right chart for our *Australian *XAO?




No it's not but where the S&P500 goes we lag but follow.
The potential breakout of the above is potentially a positive guide of where we (and the rest of the world) may be headed, imo of course .

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1071246/


----------



## rederob (19 May 2020)

Boggo said:


> No it's not but where the S&P500 goes we lag but follow.
> The potential breakout of the above is potentially a positive guide of where we (and the rest of the world) may be headed, imo of course .
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1071246/



I get the idea, but last night's action was predicated on Moderna's announcement, and our Allords has no exposure.
Here's the past year's comparison between the DJI and XAO which shows the obvious correlation:


I don't do technical analysis, but I know the above pattern had no meaningful advance warning of the COV19-inspired selldown.
I also suspect that much of COV19's worst effects on Oz markets are behind us, so the XAO should do ok from here.
I am not sure the US economy is where we are at in terms of recovery, but maybe to Trump's America "a small percentage" dying from COV19 is neither here nor there.


----------



## Roller_1 (29 May 2020)

Possible turning point?

Almost touched the 6000 resistance on the XJO with  high volume the last three days, Wednesday & Thursday weak closes while advancing then the big dump today on ultra high volume

Thoughts?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 May 2020)

Roller_1 said:


> Possible turning point?
> 
> Almost touched the 6000 resistance on the XJO with  high volume the last three days, Wednesday & Thursday weak closes while advancing then the big dump today on ultra high volume
> 
> ...



There are just too many unknown unknowns. 

Unless you are desperate I'd wait. 

gg


----------



## Roller_1 (30 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> There are just too many unknown unknowns.
> 
> Unless you are desperate I'd wait.
> 
> gg




Not desperate, just think it could be a important zone to watch with the high Vol


----------



## IFocus (28 July 2020)

Have been meaning to post this for a while, the XAO has found resistance at the 61% fib retracement  area but has maintained its upward trend as it has a second go at moving higher.
With volume trending down a little and daily range falling possibly indicates that a break through higher is possible.

I also wont be surprise if we move side ways from here.


----------



## tinhat (18 August 2020)

IFocus said:


> I also wont be surprise if we move side ways from here.




I find it hard to believe that the XAO is going to tippy-toe sideways through September and October but that is what the chart is suggesting. Either that or we keep drifting up. The S&P500 is already back to its high but the XAO is weighed down by the banks.

Of course November is the US election so it's all bets off after Tuesday 3rd November.


----------



## over9k (18 August 2020)

Things will improve from here. Victoria's turned the corner and we're heading into summer.


----------



## Cam019 (28 August 2020)

XAO trying to push up into prior overhead resistance out an ascending triangle here. Watch for some consolidation and for weekly closing prices to hold inside the 6310 - 6490 zone.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 March 2021)

With everyone, including myself, being a little more hopeful for the future, I thought it was moot to look at the XAO again. 

It appears toppy. 

Rising prices, RSI trending down. 

gg


----------



## over9k (3 March 2021)

Yeah, it certainly isn't where the action has been. Instruments like leveraged sector etf's etc are also rather limited. 

There are plenty of sectors that have done quite well, though obviously offset by those which haven't.


----------



## Student of Gann (20 September 2021)

I have prepared two directional Roadmaps that the XAO may follow . The first Curve outlined on the chart indicates that trend may continue down into either Friday 1st or Monday 4th October where a decline of 6 1/2 % is indicated from the 13th August Top at 7902 . Currently we are down around 4 1/4 % so this may be a handy measure if trend continues down into the Forecast date .  From this point trend is projected up till the 22nd October Top then down into the 11th November Low . Past Cycles point towards a rise of 8 1/4 % into the October Top but at this point it is just a technical measure and not a definitive projection .  

The second Curve outlined on the Chart points towards the same Low occurring 1st or 4th October with the first swing up till the 14th October then down into the 22nd October then up to Main Top on the 11th November . 
October 22nd could set up as a significant date as it is 120 Deg in time from the 21st June Low making it an important time period for change in trend and it is also a Seasonal Date at 210 Deg on The Square so I will be watching the pattern and formation of trend moving into these dates . 

November 11th is 90 Deg in time from the 13th August Top and 180 Deg  out from the 11th May Top so with the convergence of these two intermediate Cycles it could point towards a significant turning point but at this point it is difficult to quantify it as high or low but as we move into these dates the pattern of trend should provide us with a clear indication as to whether we are setting up as high or low and then once that date has been confirmed on the next one or two price bars I will look to enter in the prevailing direction of the roadmap and trade that swing out till the next date with a time stop in place . Watch 7550 * it is a full square in price .


----------



## peter2 (20 September 2021)

@Student of Gann  Thanks for your notes. Will watch with interest. 

What's your probability that the market will continue to fall and form an abc correction that ends Oct 22nd where it forms a bottom before the next huge rally?


----------



## Student of Gann (20 September 2021)

The two Curves presented are based upon repeating Cycles so there are two projections that we may be running against . As we approach these dates we should have a clearer indication on pattern of trend .

Just had a look at the SP500 and there are two dates of interest where Low could occur.  The first Cycle date comes in on the 21st September so if we drop into this date the two main price points I will be watching are 4417 and 4410 with a secondary target at 4392 .  If Low is confirmed on those points I will position long and draw up a roadmap out till the end of October.


----------



## Student of Gann (20 September 2021)

SP500 Curve attached as per previous post


----------



## Greynomad99 (21 September 2021)

Student of Gann said:


> I have prepared two directional Roadmaps that the XAO may follow . The first Curve outlined on the chart indicates that trend may continue down into either Friday 1st or Monday 4th October where a decline of 6 1/2 % is indicated from the 13th August Top at 7902 . Currently we are down around 4 1/4 % so this may be a handy measure if trend continues down into the Forecast date .  From this point trend is projected up till the 22nd October Top then down into the 11th November Low . Past Cycles point towards a rise of 8 1/4 % into the October Top but at this point it is just a technical measure and not a definitive projection .
> 
> The second Curve outlined on the Chart points towards the same Low occurring 1st or 4th October with the first swing up till the 14th October then down into the 22nd October then up to Main Top on the 11th November .
> October 22nd could set up as a significant date as it is 120 Deg in time from the 21st June Low making it an important time period for change in trend and it is also a Seasonal Date at 210 Deg on The Square so I will be watching the pattern and formation of trend moving into these dates .
> ...



I’m a great fan of Gann and use his teachings mixed in with a range of other theories.

Predicting actual dates for lows and highs is always a risky undertaking as I’ve found charting to be great at picking the general movement of a stocks price and likely lows and highs, but not good on time. Time theory is so subjective I rarely use it but seeing your post I thought I’d dust of the memory cells and see what it suggested about the XAO.

I found 60 day cycles were a fairly good fit with recent troughs (see vertical lines on chart). Also seemed a good match for highs and suggested a low today (21st) and the next peak on 16 October.

I said some months ago the XAO would get to around 7500 – 7700 and then in August firmed that up to 7900 – 8000. In my view the market has probably topped out and we could be falling into the ‘correction we had to have’.

I’ve got low target of 7480 pegged for the current fall. However, that is an interim target and if price doesn’t turn around there and move up again to around 7750 where a possible new downtrend is forming and likely to turn price again, then 7364 is the next stop on the way down. 7364 is only a 7% fall from the recent peak and not enough to be a formal correction. I see a 12% fall to 6900 a more likely drop if the wheels fall off.

Yesterday the XAO closed at or near support and we’ll just need to see what today brings (I’m thinking perhaps lower on open from the lemmings heading for the door and then a recovery later in the day.

I’d like to think there is one more push to around 8000 left in fuel cells but the potential to correct is worrying. Interestingly, I noticed yesterday’s volume was less than half of last Friday’s so perhaps there is some hope that the rush to sell is slowing.


----------



## Student of Gann (21 September 2021)

Thanks I will come back to the XAO later when time permits , but having a look at the SP500 the target date for Low is still in play 21st September and there are two price points of interest 4271 * which is about 34 points under last nights low and this looks to be a strong mathematical point so I have noted it down as reference and then above that the second weaker target is 4290 so we will just have to watch the price action around these zones to see if the SP500 is setting up for Low tonight . 
In regards to your counts these appear to be fixed cycle lengths which can sometimes point towards important turning points especially if there are several Cycles of differing magnitudes converging towards a central point but as a whole the market does not always conform to these static lengths as there may be other harmonic factors or Cycles controlling the trend .


----------



## Student of Gann (21 September 2021)

There is also another Cycle I may have overlooked so after todays strong move down I have constructed another Curve on the basis that the 21st September holds and turns out to be Low . If we are following this model we may be up till the 29th September for Minor Top then down into 4th October for Minor Low then up till 8th November where Main Top is indicated which was outlined on the previous model so as we approach these dates the direction of the trend leading into these points should provide us with a clearer indiaction as to whether we can expect  top or bottoms around these time periods .


----------



## Greynomad99 (1 October 2021)

The old Chinese curse about 'living in interesting times' certainly applies to the sharemarket at the moment. The US market was well down overnight along with out futures, so despite our market showing strong moves up yesterday, it looks as if today (I hate Fridays!!) is going to be another rout. I suspect it will take us back to that previous level of support around 7,480 that I commented on in a previous post and which did hold. Many of my trades are sitting close to or on support trendlines so I'm hoping today is not as bad as it seems to be looking. Good luck to all but probably not a day to check the market until 4.10pm!


----------



## over9k (1 October 2021)

Greynomad99 said:


> The old Chinese curse about 'living in interesting times' certainly applies to the sharemarket at the moment. The US market was well down overnight along with out futures, so despite our market showing strong moves up yesterday, it looks as if today (I hate Fridays!!) is going to be another rout. I suspect it will take us back to that previous level of support around 7,480 that I commented on in a previous post and which did hold. Many of my trades are sitting close to or on support trendlines so I'm hoping today is not as bad as it seems to be looking. Good luck to all but probably not a day to check the market until 4.10pm!



Yeah U.S futures were deep into the green and the markets opened strong before melting all session last night.

Reality is nobody has the slightest clue what's going to happen next and that uncertainty is probably what's driven things into the red. 

It was also the end of the quarter which usually means selloff too.


----------



## Sean K (1 October 2021)

Greynomad99 said:


> I suspect it will take us back to that previous level of support around 7,480 that I commented on in a previous post and which did hold. Many of my trades are sitting close to or on support trendlines so I'm hoping today is not as bad as it seems to be looking. Good luck to all but probably not a day to check the market until 4.10pm!




Due for a proper correction. I wouldn't mind your 12% possibility on the previous page. 6900 ish might encourage me to deploy $$. A couple of significant bumps on the way back down. Could we go lower than the high before Covid though?


----------



## Student of Gann (1 October 2021)

Looks like we could be running into the 4th October in line with the Forecast . Initially I was looking for Low either today or Monday the 4th October which could be the case . It is interesting to note the the recent price steps down which measure 206 315 with the recent swing measuring around 279 so we are still below the previous step of 315  points down which is a handy marker.  7393 could be a significant level if we get support coming in around this point culminating on the Cycle date could point towards trend up till around the 13th October where first Top is indicated . In the letter issued on the 20th September a decline of approx 6 1/2% was indicated from the 13th August 7902 Top which is in line with the projected price target at around 7393 which is a natural point of support .


----------



## over9k (1 October 2021)

U.S futures are deep into the red just to rub the salt in.


----------



## Greynomad99 (5 October 2021)

kennas said:


> Due for a proper correction. I wouldn't mind your 12% possibility on the previous page. 6900 ish might encourage me to deploy $$. A couple of significant bumps on the way back down. Could we go lower than the high before Covid though?



Yes we can break the pre-Covid high. The chart below suggests the XAO is currently testing 7470 and with another down overnight in the US, our market will probably retest that level again today - although my optimistic outlook says we will open lower today but close higher and then perhaps have a couple of green days to lift us towards the XAO's recent highs. My pessimistic outlook says that 7470 will break and we'll head for 6830 and turn our current 4% - 5% wobble into a 13% correction. Coming out of Covid and facing less concern about Evergrand than perhaps the US, I'm favouring our market not going into a tailspin - but as I've said before, when a retracement develops a life of its own and becomes delf-fulfillling, big falls are the result.
Not panicking at this time, just watching stop losses.


----------



## Logique2 (20 October 2021)

The XAO:  technically, it's had a long period in the sun.  On TA analysis, iis at max trendline. 
On P/E ratios, historically high.
Buy Puts


----------



## Sean K (21 October 2021)

Logique2 said:


> The XAO:  technically, it's had a long period in the sun.  On TA analysis, iis at max trendline.
> On P/E ratios, historically high.
> Buy Puts




Just coming off max trend line, yes.

Overall, still in a trend line dating back 10 years. There's some minor support on a correction between 7150-7300 so hopefully we see something orderly down to those levels at some stage and some consolidation. 

Some peeps seem to be expecting something like a 08 or 20 crash through all support lines. Not sure what's going to trigger that other than a shooting match in Taiwan. Perhaps we'll see something like 2015 instead.


----------



## Sean K (16 November 2021)

Three weeks later and not much has changed on the long term chart. Still skirting the top level of the channel with plenty of room downwards for a healthy correction. Still looking at the mid line of that to be a potential target for a smallish correction coinciding with the Feb 20 highs and around the 7200 mark.


----------



## Sean K (25 November 2021)

This upper diagonal support line moving towards the top of the channel has got to give at some stage.


----------



## Ann (25 November 2021)

Sean K said:


> This upper diagonal support line moving towards the top of the channel has got to give at some stage.



Unless you are working with EOD then it looks way more optimistic. 

 It had a quick dip toward the 200dsma and then popped over the long term diagonal resistance. I reckon it is on the upper but I may be very wrong Sean, time will tell!


----------



## Greynomad99 (26 November 2021)

Sean K said:


> This upper diagonal support line moving towards the top of the channel has got to give at some stage.
> 
> View attachment 133389



Until something comes along to frighten the market I'm betting it will keep travelling 3 steps forward and two back until the two lines on your chart meet - same as what happened pre-March 2020.


----------



## Ann (26 November 2021)

Sean K said:


> This upper diagonal support line moving towards the top of the channel has got to give at some stage.






Ann said:


> I reckon it is on the upper but I may be very wrong Sean, time will tell!




Give the man a hearty round of applause, nice call Sean!


----------



## Ann (27 November 2021)

Sean K said:


> This upper diagonal support line moving towards the top of the channel has got to give at some stage.




If I had even bothered to switch on my Prat Meter (PVI) I would never have doubted your call.  Note to self, check the bloody prat meter before you put your incompetence on display! I see the Smart Money (NVI, not shown) is still well and truly above the line. So I wonder if the 200dsma will hold?  Pandemic news ain't awesome but! 

Edit: This is a daily chart this time.


----------



## Sean K (27 November 2021)

Ann said:


> If I had even bothered to switch on my Prat Meter (PVI)




I must add the Prat Meter to my signals.


----------



## Ann (28 November 2021)

Sean K said:


> I must add the Prat Meter to my signals.




I am guessing I have already sold you on my Prat Meter Sean but here are a couple of charts, the first one was an old one back in 2013 when I was in my yellow period!   I seem to remember I was suggesting it was time to head back into the markets and using the Prat Meter as substantiation. 

If you look at the PVI, it seems as though it can offer a good indication as to when to hop back into the markets using a simple trend line to indicate. 




The second chart I did today to take a close up of what the Prat Meter did back in the '07/'08 crash. I have a feeling there is a bit of a lag between the time the prats leave before the main crash comes.  

Shortly I am going over to BHP to put up a chart that shows a very rare chart pattern called a 'three peaks domed house'.  I saw this shape back in 2006, sadly I lost all my early charts to a computer crash, so I can't date it precisely but it was around then. Recently I saw it again at the end of December 2018 on the DAX and another chart. At the time I didn't mention I felt it was a warning of a major crash as I had no proof but now I am reasonably satisfied it is an advance warning sign.


----------



## sptrawler (28 November 2021)

Ann said:


> I am guessing I have already sold you on my Prat Meter Sean but here are a couple of charts, the first one was an old one back in 2013 when I was in my yellow period!   I seem to remember I was suggesting it was time to head back into the markets and using the Prat Meter as substantiation.
> 
> If you look at the PVI, it seems as though it can offer a good indication as to when to hop back into the markets using a simple trend line to indicate.
> 
> ...



If the line on the first chart was extrapolated out to today, what would the point of intersection be on the XAO? Just a thought.


----------



## Ann (28 November 2021)

sptrawler said:


> If the line on the first chart was extrapolated out to today, what would the point of intersection be on the XAO? Just a thought.




As you can see SP, I am still using that same red rising support on my chart as a potential target. If we have a crash it may want to test that long term support. Quite a journey down!


----------



## Sean K (28 November 2021)

Ann said:


> As you can see SP, I am still using that same red rising support on my chart as a potential target. If we have a crash it may want to test that long term support. Quite a journey down!
> 
> View attachment 133502




Ann, can you do that on a logarithmic  scale? Probably has the same support line but will flatten.

Ideal case for me, where I'll feel more confident in deploying cash, is if we hit the green circle.


----------



## Ann (28 November 2021)

Sean K said:


> Ann, can you do that on a logarithmic scale? Probably has the same support line but will flatten.
> 
> Ideal case for me, where I'll feel more confident in deploying cash, is if we hit the green circle.




Log Scale, I hope this doesn't make you feel too uncomfortable Sean! 




and I have added the same thing zoomed between the top of the 2007 crash and now.


----------



## Sean K (28 November 2021)

Ann said:


> Log Scale, I hope this doesn't make you feel too uncomfortable Sean!
> 
> View attachment 133509




I'm coping. Just. It actually doesn't look so toppy on that first chart. It looks like we're tracking around the mean on that. Hmmm


----------



## Ann (28 November 2021)

Sean K said:


> I'm coping. Just. It actually doesn't look so toppy on that first chart. It looks like we're tracking around the mean on that. Hmmm



Now if we are talking toppy check this swing trade/measured move on Linear. Does not come with a guarantee!


----------



## Sean K (28 November 2021)

Ann said:


> Now if we are talking toppy check this swing trade/measured move on Linear. Does not come with a guarantee!
> 
> View attachment 133522




While the US keeps printing money, I wouldn't be surprised.

But, we can only kick the can down the road for so long...


----------



## KevinBB (28 November 2021)

Sean K said:


> While the US keeps printing money, I wouldn't be surprised.
> 
> But, we can only kick the can down the road for so long...



Its been an interesting conversation @Sean K and @Ann - thanks, I do read, but don't often say too much when it comes to charts and predicting. The continuation up to 9900 would certainly put all those retirement nest eggs in great shape.

However, you're right @Sean K about only being able to kick the can down the road for so long, but my job as a system follower is try to put those things out of my head. Just follow the system, and let the system tell me when the can needs to be kicked down a different path.

I think the Friday and Friday night sessions were two cases of the can starting to object to all that kicking.

KH


----------



## Sean K (2 December 2021)

XAO sitting on some horizontal and 200dma support across 7500 ish. All things being equal this should see a bounce here but I'm hoping we end up on the longer term blue line horizontal support just above the 50% mark of the 10 year channel around 7200.


----------



## Sean K (5 December 2021)

XAO at an extremely interesting juncture here. I'm hoping it breaks down and heads to the support mentioned above.


----------



## Greynomad99 (7 December 2021)

You can see my thoughts on the XAO in my weekly blog thread but I noticed today there appears to be a flag pattern developing (the blue dashed lines mark the boundary). The pattern on the weekly chart has 2 peaks and 2 troughs (well 3 actually) on those upper and lower boundaries which is the technical requirement. I'd suspect prices will move up from present levels and hopefully break the overhead boundary at its third attempt (and third attempts often succeed). I've got a range of targets (8200, 8340 & 8500) -  Anyway, despite all the negativity at the moment, as long as price doesn't break down out of the pattern I'd say brighter days are on the horizon. Price could bounce down off that upper boundary one more time but charting theory suggests flag patterns after an uptrend break up more often than down.


----------



## Sean K (14 December 2021)

Greynomad99 said:


> You can see my thoughts on the XAO in my weekly blog thread but I noticed today there appears to be a flag pattern developing (the blue dashed lines mark the boundary). The pattern on the weekly chart has 2 peaks and 2 troughs (well 3 actually) on those upper and lower boundaries which is the technical requirement. I'd suspect prices will move up from present levels and hopefully break the overhead boundary at its third attempt (and third attempts often succeed). I've got a range of targets (8200, 8340 & 8500) -  Anyway, despite all the negativity at the moment, as long as price doesn't break down out of the pattern I'd say brighter days are on the horizon. Price could bounce down off that upper boundary one more time but charting theory suggests flag patterns after an uptrend break up more often than down.




Would be good if that 7450 ish support line holds for another leg up, but I'm leaning to the downside, even with a supposed Santa Rally in the winds. I'm swayed by the lower highs. However, the long tails on many of the candles along the support line indicate good buying on weakness. So, sideways for me until 7800 or 7450 broken for up or down bias.


----------



## divs4ever (14 December 2021)

Sean K said:


> Would be good if that 7450 ish support line holds for another leg up, but I'm leaning to the downside, even with a supposed Santa Rally in the winds. I'm swayed by the lower highs. However, the long tails on many of the candles along the support line indicate good buying on weakness. So, sideways for me until 7800 or 7450 broken for up or down bias.



 well bank dividends start hitting the accounts this week  MQG lands today 

 what i have noted in the preceding week ( including yesterday ) a decreasing number of shares turned over daily 

 so  a little 'spare cash ' and reduced turnover MIGHT  make percentages look more dramatic 

 now MAYBE this year  the smaller caps. will get a more favourable attention  ( that would be a bummer for me , i love 'dumpster-diving for small and micro-caps )


----------



## DrBourse (14 December 2021)

My thoughts on the XJO between now & Xmas Eve.

The CCI gave us the Reversal Signal on 29/11, a bit early but still a very good signal, as I prefer to know few days B4 Reversals actually happen.

IMO this current ST Uptrend should “run out of steam”, on or B4 24/12/21.

The Current CCI Significantly Higher High (Suggested Downtrend) on 9/12/21 is a Very Weak Signal IMO, similar signals were given back on 3/8/21 & 18/10/21, note that the SP kept rising for a week or so after those dates, I expect this time will be similar (pages 109 & 109).

IMO the XJO should be @ abt 7460 by COB 24/24/21.




Remember to DYOR.

Cheers.
DrB


----------



## DrBourse (14 December 2021)

Sean K said:


> Ann, can you do that on a logarithmic  scale? Probably has the same support line but will flatten.
> 
> Ideal case for me, where I'll feel more confident in deploying cash, is if we hit the green circle.
> 
> View attachment 133506



Hi Sean K,

Thought I would add some food for thought, particularly for the Beginners in this Profession.

The following is just a copy of a post I've been using for years.

"People should experiment with all 3 Chart Types (Linear, Log & Arithmetic)…Each Chart Type produces slightly different outcomes when conducting Chart Analysis - I find it amazing, to say the least, that some people persist in using Indicators with Linear & Log Charts, because Indicators are an "Arithmetic Calculation" based on individual and complex Mathematical Formulas…I would suggest that anyone using the Linear & Log Type Charts should make allowances for the conflict of interest between the different results…. I rely very heavily on Indicators, so I naturally use an Arithmetic Chart with Arithmetic Calculation Indicators for all my analysis…I have seen many incorrect decisions derived from using Log or Linear Charts in conjunction with Arithmetic Indicators….If and when the Mathematicians of this world come up with Linear and/or Log based Indicators then we would be able to match "Linear Charts with Linear Indicators, Log Charts with Log Indicators.

Cheers.
DrB.


----------



## Sean K (14 December 2021)

DrBourse said:


> Hi Sean K,
> 
> Thought I would add some food for thought, particularly for the Beginners in this Profession.
> 
> ...




Thanks DrB. I don't have that as an option on my charting. Unless % is the same as Arithmetic?


----------



## DrBourse (14 December 2021)

Sean K said:


> Thanks DrB. I don't have that as an option on my charting. Unless % is the same as Arithmetic?
> 
> View attachment 134247



NP Sean, IMO Linear is the clostest to Arithemtic.
Maybe there are some Mathematical Whizzs in here that could help clarify the options.


----------



## Sean K (14 December 2021)

DrBourse said:


> NP Sean, IMO Linear is the clostest to Arithemtic.
> Maybe there are some Mathematical Whizzs in here that could help clarify the options.




I generally go back and forward from Log to Linear with the same TA attached to see if there's any major discrepancies. I'll switch to the % one now as well to see what happens.


----------



## Ann (14 December 2021)

@Sean K I have been using IC charts https://www.incrediblecharts.com/ for about 20 years. They are really good in so many ways. One of the great things is you can chart ahead with trendlines for many years beyond today's date. It is also a great way to tuck info away if you want to do a chart display and not have sht all over the place. However, the downside is it can be lost for eons. I tack up words of wisdom all over the place and come across them eventually with great pleasure. I only ever copy words of wisdom from the very best sources but stupidly I normally never say where I got it or who said it. I trust what is there.

Tonight I accidentally looked at the monthly $XAO and tucked in a corner of 2025 was a very interesting "rule". I had pondered on it years ago but shrugged my shoulders as it never really made sense....until now. 

The words were "Using MACD + 100mma don't buy crossover unless under 100mma don't sell on crossover unless above 100mma"

I have put up a chart showing the last major market fall with the 100smma in purple. Now, look at the MACD. This may be very interesting if we have a market melt-up. A good indicator of when to F-off, don't you reckon?
This quote has been a quandary for me for many years as the MACD is constantly criss-crossing but I think I see it now, are you seeing what I am seeing?


----------



## Sean K (14 December 2021)

Ann said:


> @Sean K I have been using IC charts https://www.incrediblecharts.com/ for about 20 years.



I think I tried it and I'm not sure why I didn't continue. Maybe just because of the broker I use. I really only work off trends, &R lines and basic patterns, so anything more than that hurts my head.


----------



## Sean K (29 December 2021)

The horizontal support around 7450 and 200d ma has proven to be a block to the downside. Now hitting the 7800 ish resistance line. If it breaks through in the next few days it could represent a higher high and defeat any downward bias.


----------



## Sean K (4 January 2022)

Wow, what a day. Santa, is in the house. 

Approaching, or at upper levels of the 10 year trend on this chart.

BBOZ smashed 5% after breaking support a few days ago. 

The bull keeps running.


----------



## divs4ever (4 January 2022)

i was expecting upward pressure ,  both nothing above 0.5%  , 

is there more left for tomorrow ?


----------



## Greynomad99 (4 January 2022)

The XAO is very close to what I have seen for some time as its upper target. Could it be this is like a skyrocket that streaks ever higher only to explode at its zenith?
Not feeling very comfortable!
Maybe someone has hacked the Big End of Town while they are off celebrating the silly season and slipped in a bit of code that says buy, buy buy.......


----------



## divs4ever (4 January 2022)

what chance  somebody  has tricked the ETF  computers  into buying  ( either forcing rebalances  or triggering the algos )

 sadly my normal source of data is on holidays  so i can't spot whether it was targeted buying on a thin market ( like the US PPG team were doing with the FAANG stocks in 2020)  or genuine investor buying  ( thinking anywhere but cash )

 was completely surprised  by the strength of today's rally   i was expecting a very much milder up 

 i also noted REITs held up well  when i thought they might trend lower this week


----------



## rnr (4 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> what chance  somebody  has tricked the ETF  computers  into buying  ( either forcing rebalances  or triggering the algos )
> 
> sadly my normal source of data is on holidays  so i can't spot whether it was targeted buying on a thin market ( like the US PPG team were doing with the FAANG stocks in 2020)  or genuine investor buying  ( thinking anywhere but cash )
> 
> ...




So are you suggesting that prices will move down from this latest high?


----------



## Sean K (13 January 2022)

XAO still following a very bullish trend around the long term upper limits. Bit of resistance here at 7800, you'd expect. While money continues to be pumped in and interest rates remain effectively -5%, this may continue. But, the can, can only be kicked for so long. Can the Feds pull off a miracle and reduce bond buying and increase rates to stop inflation, or?

On the upside, the channel is still being respected, generally. Downside, short and medium term support shown.

(edit: adding the longer term chart for some perspective on why I think those support lines might be tested.)

(edit 2: the chart could go parabolic too.)

(edit 3: breaking 8000 still keeps this in the longer term trend.)


----------



## InsvestoBoy (13 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> what chance  somebody  has tricked the ETF  computers  into buying  ( either forcing rebalances  or triggering the algos )




Huh?

The biggest ETFs that I assume you are referring to track market cap weighted indices like XJO or whatever. They can't be "tricked" into buying, the fund manager only needs to buy when new money comes in, just as they only need to sell for redemptions.


----------



## divs4ever (14 January 2022)

rnr said:


> So are you suggesting that prices will move down from this latest high?



 artificially up or down  ,

 now in commodities  that can be done by spoofing the futures  ( totally illegal and even punished  sometimes )

 but something i haven't seen explored   is spoofing  the index ( or Spi futures ) or  using  CFDs to spoof  major components in an index 

 again this is  more likely in thinly traded markets/days   

 now the 'market makers ' are supposed to provide   default buyers/sellers  either side of the NTA ( current portfolio  value ) so in if theory there was  already a short-selling attack  on BHP , some 'noise ' putting worry on our big banks  , and maybe that  momentum  can triggered some trailing stop-losses ,

 now remember there were allegations   of coordinated  FAANG  stock buying  in 2019  to rescue the NASDAQ ( and others ) on bad days  in the US , however it is less likely  to be done by the Government/Central Banks in Australia ( therefore more likely to be detected and penalized )


----------



## divs4ever (14 January 2022)

Market Maker​








						Market Maker Definition: What It Means and How They Make Money
					

Market makers compete for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares.




					www.investopedia.com
				




 when applied to an ETF  this can SOMETIMES give you a tiny extra opportunity  when you suspect a major component  will dip that day ( say CBA or MQG  go ex-div  , and most likely drop 2% or more on the day )

 DYOR


----------



## brerwallabi (14 January 2022)

CBA I put in $20k twenty odd years ago and still hold, EFT’s well sectors usually go up over the long term however I would rather hold individual stocks for periods more then a day and 2% up or down.
Opportunities arise all the time I fall asleep trying to find them, all for the grandkids, individual stocks or commodities will give you the best results, then I am 30% long term, 50% medium term and the other it’s win and loose invariably over the years a better win record.
Then again I don’t really know because I don’t know if I am astonishingly successful or a run of the mill punter who has spend the last 25 years preserving my capital with some cream.
I recently found out EFT was not just an Electronic Fund Transfer, hopefully I wake up to watch the tennis most likely the attendance might be 2% down on a Serbian tennis player going ex Australia.


----------



## divs4ever (14 January 2022)

brerwallabi said:


> CBA I put in $20k twenty odd years ago and still hold, EFT’s well sectors usually go up over the long term however I would rather hold individual stocks for periods more then a day and 2% up or down.
> Opportunities arise all the time I fall asleep trying to find them, all for the grandkids, individual stocks or commodities will give you the best results, then I am 30% long term, 50% medium term and the other it’s win and loose invariably over the years a better win record.
> Then again I don’t really know because I don’t know if I am astonishingly successful or a run of the mill punter who has spend the last 25 years preserving my capital with some cream.
> I recently found out EFT was not just an Electronic Fund Transfer, hopefully I wake up to watch the tennis most likely the attendance might be 2% down on a Serbian tennis player going ex Australia.



but some members are new to the market   ( very nice that you got started 20 years back ) but many others didn't for various reasons  , but might want to soon  , and some of those members may feel comfortable holding CBA for the next  20 years


----------



## Greynomad99 (14 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> XAO still following a very bullish trend around the long term upper limits. Bit of resistance here at 7800, you'd expect. While money continues to be pumped in and interest rates remain effectively -5%, this may continue. But, the can, can only be kicked for so long. Can the Feds pull off a miracle and reduce bond buying and increase rates to stop inflation, or?
> 
> On the upside, the channel is still being respected, generally. Downside, short and medium term support shown.
> 
> ...



I'm not sure it is still that bullish, Sean. Technically yes. because we're still in a technical uptrend, but the XAO has fallen into a sideways flag pattern since the middle of last year, gone nowhere and been unable to hold above 7,900. The lower boundary of the smaller of the 2 rising price channels price is in (darker green in the chart) is providing support recently. It can still go either way - ie break down through that channel lower boundary (and correct if it breaks below 7,500 or break above 7,900 and head up to 8,000+.  The break up remains my view of the most likely end to this pattern, but until Covid resolves I see the potential for more sideways action (and the spectre of inflation is a dark cloud on the horizon). The only positive is that the longer we drift sideways the greater the eventual rally might be (if it comes). And is it does rally then with the market back at new highs, tops of channels etc we still need a correction or bear market to reset. Not a great outlook for 2022 but as they say - life goes on! And, on that note, with the Nasdaq having slipped overnight and today a Friday, it could be another day to do something other than watch the market.


----------



## Sean K (14 January 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> I'm not sure it is still that bullish, Sean. Technically yes. because we're still in a technical uptrend, but the XAO has fallen into a sideways flag pattern since the middle of last year, gone nowhere and been unable to hold above 7,900. The lower boundary of the smaller of the 2 rising price channels price is in (darker green in the chart) is providing support recently. It can still go either way - ie break down through that channel lower boundary (and correct if it breaks below 7,500 or break above 7,900 and head up to 8,000+.  The break up remains my view of the most likely end to this pattern, but until Covid resolves I see the potential for more sideways action (and the spectre of inflation is a dark cloud on the horizon). The only positive is that the longer we drift sideways the greater the eventual rally might be (if it comes). And is it does rally then with the market back at new highs, tops of channels etc we still need a correction or bear market to reset. Not a great outlook for 2022 but as they say - life goes on! And, on that note, with the Nasdaq having slipped overnight and today a Friday, it could be another day to do something other than watch the market.
> View attachment 135728




Agree on the flag. I should have added 'long term' before bullish trend, ref second chart. I'm short term bearish. The chart should revert to mean, and I've tipped 7200 for EOY simply based on the second support line and middle of the trend. Hopefully that's wrong for those fully invested and our superannuation funds.


----------



## Sean K (21 January 2022)

Interesting day. Has undone the sea of green on goldies yesterday. 

Has hit that first level of support again, I wonder if that's going to be it. Breaking through that has some support at 7400, but then it's 7200 ish to the downside.


----------



## Sean K (24 January 2022)

Untidy.


----------



## Greynomad99 (24 January 2022)

While we could be on the slippery slide to correction or beyond, the XAO is interesting in that the last all time high was an overthrow of the flag pattern upper boundary. Could it be that as today's move suggested the fall of last week might reverse (depending on what Wall Street does tonight - because the ASX doesn't have a mind of its own!), that the fall below the lower boundary could be seen as a small overthrow Quite often with patterns you will get these overthrows before a final break out. Could that be a break up out of the pattern? I'm still holding that a break up is more likely than a break down, while conceding the odds on that outcome lengthened last week.


----------



## Greynomad99 (24 January 2022)

Re my last post I just realised US futures are green as are ours (just) for tomorrow. So maybe a rally might be on the cards after all. 
PS: I had flagged CSL and WES as trades I needed to close but will see what tomorrow brings.


----------



## Sean K (24 January 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> While we could be on the slippery slide to correction or beyond, the XAO is interesting in that the last all time high was an overthrow of the flag pattern upper boundary. Could it be that as today's move suggested the fall of last week might reverse (depending on what Wall Street does tonight - because the ASX doesn't have a mind of its own!), that the fall below the lower boundary could be seen as a small overthrow Quite often with patterns you will get these overthrows before a final break out. Could that be a break up out of the pattern? I'm still holding that a break up is more likely than a break down, while conceding the odds on that outcome lengthened last week.
> 
> View attachment 136465




As you know, I'm a bear, but breaking the 200dma and through that support level turns me grizzly in the short term.


----------



## Greynomad99 (25 January 2022)

Woke up to see the US market was down 2% but that position seems to be improving - so maybe today won't be quite as bad as I had feared.
I checked all my trades and it was interesting to see how many had fallen to resistance and closed above their lows. Also a number of doji candles yesterday that suggest a possible reversal. In short, none said sell me. That said I'm under no illusions the current market is struggling. Fingers crossed.

PS: I usually watch the XAO but while trawling through my watch list this morning, I noticed the XJO had made a double top with its last early January high. I don't consider the XAO as making a double high as its highs are a little too different to be a technical double top. For what it is worth charting theory says that the XJO double top predicts a fall to around 6690 - 12% off its high and as such a formal correction. Hmmm - perhaps I better have another look at those stop losses.


----------



## qldfrog (25 January 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> Woke up to see the US market was down 2% but that position seems to be improving - so maybe today won't be quite as bad as I had feared.
> I checked all my trades and it was interesting to see how many had fallen to resistance and closed above their lows. Also a number of doji candles yesterday that suggest a possible reversal. In short, none said sell me. That said I'm under no illusions the current market is struggling. Fingers crossed.
> 
> PS: I usually watch the XAO but while trawling through my watch list this morning, I noticed the XJO had made a double top with its last early January high. I don't consider the XAO as making a double high as its highs are a little too different to be a technical double top. For what it is worth charting theory says that the XJO double top predicts a fall to around 6690 - 12% off its high and as such a formal correction. Hmmm - perhaps I better have another look at those stop losses.



We should see a rebound today.some will BTD, i will use it as a way to reload my put


----------



## Greynomad99 (25 January 2022)

US gone from red to green - so that looks better for our market. ASX futures are well under water but perhaps they just haven't caught up with the late US rally. Now all we need is for Mr Putin to stop playing brinkmanship with the US. I think Russia probably has more to lose than gain by invading Ukraine - hopefully Vlad the Impaler feels the same way.


----------



## Sean K (25 January 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> US gone from red to green - so that looks better for our market.




Yes, a little, and yesterday's bounce off that little spt at 7400 ish and finishing with a bit of a hammer looks OK too.


----------



## tech/a (25 January 2022)

Increase in Volatility.
This move is in the throes of a correction.
Then In my view resuming. Bought back my puts pre-market. (SPI).
Sit and watch for me.


----------



## tech/a (25 January 2022)

Prematurely as it works out.


----------



## qldfrog (25 January 2022)

Just forgot key fact: Australia day tomorrow so who wants to hold overnight when overnight is 2 trading days on NYSE.i may be wrong with the mini bounce today


----------



## Greynomad99 (25 January 2022)

So much for the US being in positive territory overnight. I've started selling (so market will rally later today no doubt!)


----------



## Sean K (25 January 2022)

It's panic stations. Gone to that 7200 support regions quicker than expected.


----------



## Gunnerguy (25 January 2022)

ASX200 bounce off 6920 ...... ..... Any dead cats around ..... and then down to 6640 ...
I wouldn't want to be loaded up with the market closed tomorrow.
As someone said somewhere ... 2 days of NYSE trading while we're closed....


----------



## qldfrog (25 January 2022)

Which mean we might go a bit too low today short term .issue is when do i buy my put now..sold these on the slope down


----------



## divs4ever (25 January 2022)

am trying to buy selected stocks  at 'fair prices ' sadly with limited success so far 

 take care 

( i NEED my cash working , when i can sensibly park it  , do what is right for YOU )


----------



## tech/a (25 January 2022)

Wow this is beyond anything I thought 
The only good thing is I’m out of everything other than Super but out of a great short which should still be going 
Ah the cost of diminishing risk ( was in a meeting for a few hrs this morning ) 
anyone short ?

too late for Dax and US I think


----------



## Sean K (25 January 2022)

tech/a said:


> Wow this is beyond anything I thought
> The only good thing is I’m out of everything other than Super but out of a great short which should still be going
> Ah the cost of diminishing risk ( was in a meeting for a few hrs this morning )
> anyone short ?
> ...




Bought BBOZ a couple of days ago, that's it.


----------



## Greynomad99 (25 January 2022)

Are we having fun yet?  NO! 
Pretty much closed all my trades today on basis I can always buy back and market has shown no sign of stopping its fall into the abyss. A holiday tomorrow might allow one of two things to happen, (a) the lemmings have time to panic and run for the door on Thursday (this lemming has already flown the coop), or (b) see opportunities in lower prices and start buying. If the US market has another sell off tonight and (God forbid) tomorrow, Thursday could be a day for the asbestos lined cricketing protection equipment.


----------



## qldfrog (25 January 2022)

tech/a said:


> Wow this is beyond anything I thought
> The only good thing is I’m out of everything other than Super but out of a great short which should still be going
> Ah the cost of diminishing risk ( was in a meeting for a few hrs this morning )
> anyone short ?
> ...



I sold a few put around lunchtime, amazing % returns..but was under the false impression I would be able to buy them back cheaper this afternoon..hum.seems like I was wrong, clock is ticking and i might end up exposed...


----------



## qldfrog (25 January 2022)

got BBUS(+4% today) last week but I should have gone bboz +6%....


----------



## divs4ever (25 January 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> Are we having fun yet?  NO!
> Pretty much closed all my trades today on basis I can always buy back and market has shown no sign of stopping its fall into the abyss. A holiday tomorrow might allow one of two things to happen, (a) the lemmings have time to panic and run for the door on Thursday (this lemming has already flown the coop), or (b) see opportunities in lower prices and start buying. If the US market has another sell off tonight and (God forbid) tomorrow, Thursday could be a day for the asbestos lined cricketing protection equipment.



 a little bit 

 i added extra AIS , MND , and MGX today ( with the after market auction still to come )

 thanks to a reminder about the monthly tipping comp.  i am claiming a win ( by MY reckoning ) i grabbed a useful number of MGX cheap ( and that is all i try to do in the monthly comps. )

 good luck everyone else .. but i have got my prize this month 

 i still have some cash AND courage .. and two more trading days to go this week


----------



## Sean K (25 January 2022)

Some significant technical damage done to individual stocks the past three days, especially in speccie miners. Back to the drawing board for quite a few of them unless there's a remarkable bounce in the US over the next two nights and the ASX cat bounces considerably on Thursday.


----------



## SyBoo (25 January 2022)

The XAO MA(50) is getting very close to the MA(200), they call that crossing the "Dead Cross" don't they. 
Also looks like the MA(200) has rolled over. 
_(Just some lagging TA thoughts.)_


----------



## Greynomad99 (27 January 2022)

I try to avoid the Chicken Little (The Sky is Falling) predictions because nobody really knows what is going to happen to the market over the immediate future. However, here's my take on possible scenarios.

You may have read the attached article in today’s Age – but it reflects my sentiments exactly.

Have sold all shares (bar Beach Energy because it slumped the other day and oil prices are rising). Bought BBOZ which is a geared ETF that work inversely to the ASX – if the market falls 2% it rises 3%.

First time I’ve ever run for the door.

The XAO has fallen to break out of its long-standing channel (dark green) and close below that channels lower boundary for 2 consecutive weeks – a sell signal, It has made a lower low so far this week – another sell warning (although a lower peak would be needed to confirm that). It’s fallen out of the sideways flag pattern (another sell) – and the market is at an all-time high. Price has fallen to a support level and hence this might stop the rot. If not expect 6800 – 7000 followed by 6000 – 6500 etc etc

Previous falls in the ASX have been about 10% - 12% (a technical correction) and a small further fall today would see us off 10%.

The pessimistic prediction is a line of support currently around 6400 which is coincidentally 21% off the recent high which is where it becomes a bear market. Apart from the GFC and Covid March 2020 falls, 20% is about where falls usually stop.

So take your pick as nothing in charting will tell you where the bottom is to this market. It could rally due to bargain hunters and perhaps the sum will come out and all will be sweetness and happiness. Given the ‘perfect storm’ the attached article talks about fits with my view of the world, if I had to bet on it – I’d see a bear market as the most likely outcome. I hope I’m wrong.

Just remember – you can always buy back.


----------



## Sean K (27 January 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> I try to avoid the Chicken Little (The Sky is Falling) predictions because nobody really knows what is going to happen to the market over the immediate future. However, here's my take on possible scenarios.
> 
> You may have read the attached article in today’s Age – but it reflects my sentiments exactly.
> 
> ...




No Chicken Little, it's been obvious. Your support line matches the bottom of the 10 year channel I've been pasting up for months. We've been bumping up against the top of that channel for the past six months.


----------



## Greynomad99 (27 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> No Chicken Little, it's been obvious. Your support line matches the bottom of the 10 year channel I've been pasting up for months. We've been bumping up against the top of that channel for the past six months.



Agreed, but the problem has been you can't predict when it is going to fall off its perch - you just know it will at some point (and when it falls off said perch will it fall to the ground or recover just to do it all again?). Prices have recovered this morning but we'll just need to see what happens over the next week or two. A good fall would certainly clear the air and set up a buying opportunity.


----------



## divs4ever (27 January 2022)

am not so much worried about the sky falling as the ground beneath my feet ( will it disappear , turn into quicksand , or maybe there is a gold nugget next to me )



Greynomad99 said:


> Just remember – you can always buy back.



 i DO prefer to buy back cheaper ( on the rare occasion i do it )  but my record for that is not inspiring ( sometimes the price keeps going up and up )


----------



## Sean K (27 January 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> Agreed, but the problem has been you can't predict when it is going to fall off its perch - you just know it will at some point (and when it falls off said perch will it fall to the ground or recover just to do it all again?). Prices have recovered this morning but we'll just need to see what happens over the next week or two. A good fall would certainly clear the air and set up a buying opportunity.




Dead cat off 7200 ish, perhaps. With the VIX going nuts I'm not sure how respectful the XAO will be to basic TA S&R lines, but on the way back up you'd expect a lot of selling at the previous support around 7500 ish. Still in the top half of the 10 year upward trend. Hopefully just some sideways action between 7200-7500 for some consolidation and blood pressure relief.


----------



## Greynomad99 (28 January 2022)

Here's a bit of 'What If" for the Wyckoff fans. What if price of the XAO bounces from its present level back up into the rectangle on the chart below. What if it then fell back a little and retested the lower boundary of the rectangle and then moved up again. To me that looks like a Wyckoff pattern which should then be saying that generally higher weekly peaks and troughs were likely for a time. Until the pattern shows its last level of support before breaking up out of the pattern, a target can't be calculated. However, if we assume prices rally strongly in that latter phase of the pattern and LLS is around 7700 then a target of around 9000 could be on the cards. Just an interesting theory.

PS: US S&P is down again and while our futures are bright green - I'm not sure I believe them. A market on the slide, Putin saddling up in the Baltic, and a Friday here - I suspect a few more traders are going to want to minimise their exposure over the weekend and any rally on the open will fade away. On a positive note, the shape of the US charts suggest the slide is slowing.


----------



## qldfrog (28 January 2022)

S&P500 last night



I expect the same today on asx..not looking good IMHO.
And as pointed out: tonight is the week end for us..who want to hold??


----------



## InsvestoBoy (28 January 2022)

qldfrog said:


> who want to hold??




The recent move down has pushed my equity allocation a bit underweight from where it should be (25%) so I'll be bidding today, just as I was offering highs of 2021 and bidding lows in March 2020.


----------



## qldfrog (28 January 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> The recent move down has pushed my equity allocation a bit underweight from where it should be (25%) so I'll be bidding today, just as I was offering highs of 2021 and bidding lows in March 2020.



Am still waiting an extra 10pc fall before jumping on the temporary bounce..time will tell.i always found the au market overly optimistic..the problem with a country which has not known real pain for too long ..generations actually...
Time will tell


----------



## Sean K (28 January 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Am still waiting an extra 10pc fall before jumping on the temporary bounce..time will tell.i always found the au market overly optimistic..the problem with a country which has not known real pain for too long ..generations actually...
> Time will tell




When do you reckon it was hardest post WW2 that Gen X and Y do not know? I was born in 69 so remember the late 70s and 80s interest rates and my parents paying over 15% on the home loan. Most of Dad's pay went into paying off the interest.


----------



## qldfrog (28 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> When do you reckon it was hardest post WW2 that Gen X and Y do not know? I was born in 69 so remember the late 70s and 80s interest rates and my parents paying over 15% on the home loan. Most of Dad's pay went into paying off the interest.



Yes 80s high rates, no work with unemployment above 10pc, no cheap made in china stuff.10y old cheaper second hand car at 5k..so more or less 10k nowadays..high taxation and food was white bread and Coon cheddar..
I push a but but..oh ..and house prise going nowhere for 10y..so paying back HL at 15% for no gain...


----------



## Sean K (8 February 2022)

Interesting dead cat from the bounce off 7200ish / half way of the channel range support. The cat looks like it has some life at the moment. Hitting the old support line, now resistance, which will coincide with meeting the 200 and 50dma shortly.


----------



## qldfrog (8 February 2022)

I looked at the US SPY etf last night and definitively could not break its new ceiling/(was ex support ) level so nothing positive for xao from there, so the bulls here will be surprised tomorrow...why they say why...


----------



## Sean K (15 February 2022)

Last week the XAO broke through the old support around 7500 ish which then became resistance, which it broke through, and then tested the now support at 7500 ish twice and held above. Now sitting on that line again. Not holding above this, and breaking down, you'd think it's back to the lower support line again. Fingers crossed she holds up. If Russia invades Ukraine on Wednesday, it's probably a downside bias.


----------



## qldfrog (15 February 2022)

it is all good: market will become euphoric when Russia does not "invade" Ukraine tomorrow;
I sometimes wonder what is the IQ of people in newsagencies and worse investment funds who still listen to what the Alzheimer in charge is supposedly publishing?
Question for you @Sean K : "Fingers crossed she holds up."
Why should you or anyone wish that more than the opposite: a fall ?Should markets be a one way street ?
Should you not celebrate a fall as an opportunity to sort the values and get good bargain?
When I see PE between 25 and 50ish , I see no cause for celebration, more an absence of value in both shares and the fiat currencies we hold .
Anyway, neither of us will change whatever happens so let's go with the flow


----------



## Sean K (15 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> it is all good: market will become euphoric when Russia does not "invade" Ukraine tomorrow;
> I sometimes wonder what is the IQ of people in newsagencies and worse investment funds who still listen to what the Alzheimer in charge is supposedly publishing?
> Question for you @Sean K : "Fingers crossed she holds up."
> Why should you or anyone wish that more than the opposite: a fall ?Should markets be a one way street ?
> ...




Fingers crossed for those fully invested and don't have the ability to go short. I've got a bit of cash waiting for a decent home.


----------



## stanwell (15 February 2022)

I don't have XAO data so use XJO instead.

Can't see the market go much lower. To me, it's puff and bluff by the Yanks to scare people and chase money to the US.


----------



## divs4ever (15 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> Fingers crossed for those fully invested and don't have the ability to go short. I've got a bit of cash waiting for a decent home.



 have been using some of that cash recently , but the AST take-over is almost complete  , the API take-over  is starting to go through the process , while  the WSA and ZEL take-overs  seem to be more speculation  , than cash on the table 

 finding those decent homes is HARD 

 good luck 

one commodity rarely mentioned in this Ukraine-Russia thing is aluminum , although i thought Russia shipped some uranium as well 

 there MIGHT be some interesting moments in the commodities area


----------



## Sean K (15 February 2022)

stanwell said:


> I don't have XAO data so use XJO instead.
> 
> Can't see the market go much lower. To me, it's puff and bluff by the Yanks to scare people and chase money to the US.
> 
> View attachment 137588




XAO and XJO don't look too horribly different. Similar short term S&R lines and long term trend. Price earnings ratios of a lot of US stocks are still way over historical mean. If the US sneezes we catch a cough.


----------



## divs4ever (15 February 2022)

stanwell said:


> I don't have XAO data so use XJO instead.
> 
> Can't see the market go much lower. To me, it's puff and bluff by the Yanks to scare people and chase money to the US.
> 
> View attachment 137588




 yes , i can see your logic , there  , but it might not be the whole  picture 

 for example would China step in to calm tensions if Russia looked to go full nuclear holocaust (  they have lots of foreign assets that might get nuked )


----------



## stanwell (15 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> yes , i can see your logic , there  , but it might not be the whole  picture
> 
> for example would China step in to calm tensions if Russia looked to go full nuclear holocaust (  they have lots of foreign assets that might get nuked )



China won't step in as this is about Russian's security, no compromise. China can do nothing about it.

I think the best solution is Europe step in to defuse the situation. If the war did break out, Russia, Ukraine, Europe and China are all losers. Only beneficiary is US. This is why they jump up and down to add fuel to the fire.


----------



## qldfrog (15 February 2022)

stanwell said:


> China won't step in as this is about Russian's security, no compromise. China can do nothing about it.
> 
> I think the best solution is Europe step in to defuse the situation. If the war did break out, Russia, Ukraine, Europe and China are all losers. Only beneficiary is US. This is why they jump up and down to add fuel to the fire.



Yes only one winner, the one who has already told us that everything is fake news but their war starting on the 16th..
I highly recommend people read the George Friedman https://www.booktopia.com.au/the-ne...Agk8am4vsLcYTffYEYIHFRM3q14H2p_0aAvkVEALw_wcB
This is textbook application of US game about Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania and the move to initially reinforce/ally with Poland vs EU 
Maximum damages to all the listed there and keep superpower.
One item you mentioned @Sean K "Price earnings ratios of a lot of US stocks are still way over historical mean." is interesting
It is true:


and XAO P/E is around 18? (was hard to find recent dataf) 
but as we are mostly miner and banks, I am not sure we are not as overvalued as the US
Both Mining and Banks should have much lower PE than industrial or tech industries: one is eating its assets, the second is leveraging it to the hilt
Will be interesting to see if Biden will be able to achieve his target..in a way, a crash blamed on Russia could be a saving grace for his next election.So my bet is on an ongoing engineered crash..not much is needed anyway


----------



## divs4ever (15 February 2022)

i can't see how the US wins  , it is already a debt pig , much infrastructure is old and needs repair , and the wrong  ( skilled ) part of the workforce is  not particularly friendly to the government  ( things like taxes , regulations , inflation that is hurting THEM )

 Putin  seems to think everybody loses  ( although parts of the EU surely can't get much worse ..unless turned into radioactive wasteland )

 Russia is a HUGE land mass so pockets of civilization would  survive  , so am guessing Putin sees no win  from an armed conflict  for Russia 

 now China will probably suffer  but they have been ravaged by war many times before  , so might  still be the winner of a very sorry bunch ( life wasn't so pretty during and after WW2   so have recent experience )

 the wild card might be India  who MIGHT be clever enough  to stay in the spectator seats


----------



## Sean K (15 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> I highly recommend people read the George Friedman https://www.booktopia.com.au/the-ne...Agk8am4vsLcYTffYEYIHFRM3q14H2p_0aAvkVEALw_wcB
> This is textbook application of US game about Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania and the move to initially reinforce/ally with Poland vs EU
> Maximum damages to all the listed there and keep superpower.



X2. I read that when it came out, twice. It's gold. I can see China breaking up, but not sure about the war between Mexico and the US.


----------



## qldfrog (15 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> X2. I read that when it came out, twice. It's gold. I can see China breaking up, but not sure about the war between Mexico and the US.



the mistake is to do a mexico = gangland..
if (it is a big IF) the states reassess control, it will becomes a powerhouse ..and the US is turning hispanic anyway.no need for war
Back to subject..i think Biden will push to a hot war


----------



## stanwell (15 February 2022)

I can't see China breaking up as it's getting more united than ever after many years adoring the US. The COVID makes them no longer believe western democracy is better than their one party system.

IMHO, in the future the world will be dominated by G2, US and China. US will continue to be the center of political, military and technology. China will be the powerhouse for economic, manufacture and market.


----------



## qldfrog (16 February 2022)

stanwell said:


> I can't see China breaking up as it's getting more united than ever after many years adoring the US. The COVID makes them no longer believe western democracy is better than their one party system.
> 
> IMHO, in the future the world will be dominated by G2, US and China. US will continue to be the center of political, military and technology. China will be the powerhouse for economic, manufacture and market.



Agree: do not see China breaking up, I disagree with Friedman there but money is power, once you travel outside EU and americas, you realise money is Chinese now and this means power & control,
 all of Asia already  but Japan, whole of Africa, small island and pushing cards in latin america, not forgetting European weakest states..but not Ukraine LOL
As for technology, where do you think your iphone is not only produced but designed?
SO I see US doomed at least medium term, it could reborn if it get rid of its woke clique: good luck
US keep some military old school weapons, BIG stuff  and $ spent..but if economic power is lost, they will lose the military too
All this too far from
XAO tech analysis;
for us, irrespective of who will lead the world in a decade, we are on the verge of a crash with rates, inflation and FIAT money in the US affecting our market;
As we are commodities based, we should go better than US market AFTER the crash, AUD might even surge past the initial USD refuge first frights
so for the rebound  or slow recovery after, bet AUD is sensible
Give it a month or 2 from now to see full story
as discussed on the graph and with my glasses,we are moving from support levels to ceiling ones 
still bear XAO a good 20% or more.cash ready


----------



## divs4ever (16 February 2022)

stanwell said:


> I can't see China breaking up as it's getting more united than ever after many years adoring the US. The COVID makes them no longer believe western democracy is better than their one party system.
> 
> IMHO, in the future the world will be dominated by G2, US and China. US will continue to be the center of political, military and technology. China will be the powerhouse for economic, manufacture and market.




 yes  not breaking up , but MAYBE slightly more moderate  to increase productivity and innovation  ( i don't see it dropping controls completely  or even substantially reduced ) am looking at China and India ( especially if India can form a trading bloc with Pakistan, Bangladesh , Sri Lanka , and Kashmir ) being the two whales in the global economy  , i see both the EU and US  wallowing in their own bloat , and indulgence 

 but don't neglect Mexico  forming a Pan-American bloc  to become a significant  force as well  , or a unified Korea ( but that should be a long and painful process )


----------



## Sean K (16 February 2022)

Interesting juncture on the short term picture. Holding the support line mentioned above and 200&50 dma's converging to that support line and current value. Would be pretty positive if the general market pushes up through this confluence strongly. Might depend on what happens with Russia/Ukraine news tonight, if you believe news moves markets.


----------



## stanwell (16 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> yes  not breaking up , but MAYBE slightly more moderate  to increase productivity and innovation  ( i don't see it dropping controls completely  or even substantially reduced ) am looking at China and India ( especially if India can form a trading bloc with Pakistan, Bangladesh , Sri Lanka , and Kashmir ) being the two whales in the global economy  , i see both the EU and US  wallowing in their own bloat , and indulgence
> 
> but don't neglect Mexico  forming a Pan-American bloc  to become a significant  force as well  , or a unified Korea ( but that should be a long and painful process )



I agree China needs to be more moderate. At the moment, it's being plagued by corruption and bureaucracy. This is the bottleneck for them to develop further and gain more respect. Looking at the west, apart from occasional cases, corruption and bureaucracy is not an issue at all.


----------



## divs4ever (16 February 2022)

sadly the world in general is becoming more like China especially in the bureaucracy department 

  why should China  try for more respect when they can just corrupt influential people  ( what you hear about is the tip of the iceberg )

 don't be fooled they hook all the major sides of politics


----------



## stanwell (16 February 2022)

I use a proprietary adaptive MA which tracks the price quite well. The weekly price is currently below weekly MA. But I would consider the market as ranging because there isn't a new swing that has left the range.


----------



## Greynomad99 (21 February 2022)

Some large companies getting punished today - not a pretty start to the week.


----------



## Sean K (21 February 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> Some large companies getting punished today - not a pretty start to the week.




Breaking down through 7500 ish is bearish short term.


----------



## qldfrog (21 February 2022)

Don't worry,this is Australia.. she'll be right.. someone will buy the dip before end of day and asx will end up positive.our banks are immortal


----------



## Greynomad99 (22 February 2022)

Seems to be finding a bottom around 7,400. Hopefully it will recover a bit this afternoon. I'm only down half the general market - so I guess that is OK. A fall below 7,340 would be a problem for the XAO. That is 50% of the last weekly range (from trough to peak) and a close above that suggests a possible recovery while a close below would suggest to me that the XAO will retest the lower boundary of a price channel it has been trading in - around 7250. However, that price channel isn't totally certain, so just need to watch the stop losses (basically a break below uptrend or a new lower low where an uptrend hasn't been confirmed). A lot of investors are taking a hiding this week. Gold continuing to look promising as a haven and pushing price up. Energy stocks to fall if Iran sells into the market. Putin's probably told his broker to go short if he has decided to pull the pin.  ......Now where did I put that new bottle of Scotch?.....


----------



## stanwell (23 February 2022)

Most important indices are here. 

I left out XEC and XGD as no room to include them.


----------



## Greynomad99 (23 February 2022)

stanwell said:


> Most important indices are here.
> 
> I left out XEC and XGD as no room to include them.
> 
> View attachment 137953



Interesting to see them all laid out like this. Also interesting that only XSJ looks clearly bullish.


----------



## stanwell (25 February 2022)

XJO Daily, weekly and monthly. Still bearish. 

Red circle on the daily is a possible target, but I hope I am wrong.


----------



## Greynomad99 (25 February 2022)

As Sean K said - it is pretty hard for TA to be totally reliable in these difficult times. I say it is usually 75% on the money but at the moment I don't really put much faith in it (or much else either) and it only has academic interest. At least a less painful day today than yesterday - everyone has decided Ukraine is going to fall to Vlad the Impaler and nobody will be prepared to do anything militarily about it. Hopefully, the world will put an economic fence around Russia and put their economy (such that it is) and anyone who does business with them to the wall.  The press reckons Vlad will use cryptocurrency as a work around - hopefully he bought a truckload of that recently and is now bleeding from every pore in his body.


----------



## qldfrog (25 February 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> As Sean K said - it is pretty hard for TA to be totally reliable in these difficult times. I say it is usually 75% on the money but at the moment I don't really put much faith in it (or much else either) and it only has academic interest. At least a less painful day today than yesterday - everyone has decided Ukraine is going to fall to Vlad the Impaler and nobody will be prepared to do anything militarily about it. Hopefully, the world will put an economic fence around Russia and put their economy (such that it is) and anyone who does business with them to the wall.  The press reckons Vlad will use cryptocurrency as a work around - hopefully he bought a truckload of that recently and is now bleeding from every pore in his body.



So just to go a bit above the ABC/news very limited investigative brainpower:

Sanctions on Russia? Have been non stop for quite a few years now especially EU which enabled them to build an economy to replace many european products..and they are now exporting camember and champagne to china replacing French products there ...LOL.
If the west is serious and stop importing Russian minerals.and energy..then these will go straight to China. Discounted maybe..as China likes a bargain 
but guess which country in the west is the loser? Uk? Germany ?..nooooo
The good Aussie kangaroo which will then try to redirect its unrequired export to China toward Europe.
good luck. . To compete with africa and south america
Noted the mention of crypto.. good so the official reason to make BTC illegal will be to beat the bad commies....?
Sure,can we get a 4th booster with that?and a lollipop.


----------



## qldfrog (25 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> So just to go a bit above the ABC/news very limited investigative brainpower:
> 
> Sanctions on Russia? Have been non stop for quite a few years now especially EU which enabled them to build an economy to replace many european products..and they are now exporting camember and champagne to china replacing French products there ...LOL.
> If the west is serious and stop importing Russian minerals.and energy..then these will go straight to China. Discounted maybe..as China likes a bargain
> ...



So in short how much will sanctions on Russia cost us, and what is the effect on the ASX....
BTD..BTD...😁


----------



## Sean K (25 February 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> As Sean K said - it is pretty hard for TA to be totally reliable in these difficult times. I say it is usually 75% on the money but at the moment I don't really put much faith in it (or much else either) and it only has academic interest. At least a less painful day today than yesterday - everyone has decided Ukraine is going to fall to Vlad the Impaler and nobody will be prepared to do anything militarily about it. Hopefully, the world will put an economic fence around Russia and put their economy (such that it is) and anyone who does business with them to the wall.  The press reckons Vlad will use cryptocurrency as a work around - hopefully he bought a truckload of that recently and is now bleeding from every pore in his body.




EU press conference on at the moment and they are absolutely caning Russia. Vlad has put his country back a couple of decades.


----------



## qldfrog (25 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> EU press conference on at the moment and they are absolutely caning Russia. Vlad has put his country back a couple of decades.



We will talk again about that in 5y @Sean K  and see.not so sure it is even a mistake from his part.


----------



## stanwell (25 February 2022)

Biggest loser: Ukraine.

Next loser: EU. Europe will be firmed controlled by the US even though it has been trying to be more independent.  They will have to import gas and other commodities from the yanks at much higher price.

Mid term winners: Russia and US. Russia will have a buffer from NATO to make it safer than otherwise. US successfully separated EU from Russia. It can sell more energy products, it can get some of the money from EU to help its economy.

Long term winner: China. Russia will have to rely on China much more. Russia has to turn to Asia for its future development in the foreseeable future. China will get some, if not most, of the money that flows out of Europe. Yuan has been appreciating sharply in the last few days.

When we have a superpower like US, with American First policy, the world is not going to be as calm as Botany Bay.


----------



## divs4ever (25 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> So just to go a bit above the ABC/news very limited investigative brainpower:
> 
> Sanctions on Russia? Have been non stop for quite a few years now especially EU which enabled them to build an economy to replace many european products..and they are now exporting camember and champagne to china replacing French products there ...LOL.
> If the west is serious and stop importing Russian minerals.and energy..then these will go straight to China. Discounted maybe..as China likes a bargain
> ...





 i think China would settle for a stable but fair price  ( after all it WON'T be settled in US dollars ) and i think Russia would be content with that also  .. and don't forget  if Russia gets booted too far into the weeds  .. well there is North Korea without many friends or suppliers  they won't be able to buy much but they will be eager

 but heck , Australia had plenty of time to diversify who it sold to  , we did this to ourselves ( mostly )


----------



## stanwell (7 March 2022)




----------



## Greynomad99 (8 March 2022)

With the US market plumbing new depths last night and the Nasdaq getting close to a bear market - it looks as if things here may also get worse before they get better.


----------



## eskys (8 March 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> With the US market plumbing new depths last night and the Nasdaq getting close to a bear market - it looks as if things here may also get worse before they get better.



You're probably right, Greynomad. VIX is up. It's a traders' market as I see it. If we can identify the stocks and sectors that have taken a turn for the better, there's money to be made. But in this age of uncertainly and volatility, we better be quick to react to changing tide


----------



## Cam019 (23 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> Who thinks this turn around in the XAO will be short lived with another pullback at around the 7833 level, which it's been bouncing off since July last year?
> 
> View attachment 139390




Thought I'd respond to MA's post here. I'm with @Ann on this one - I actually see the XAO going higher.

Weekly demand zone shown below has now been mitigated and was not broken through.







Price came in and tested the daily demand zone twice and that zone has held. Price has now broken structure on the daily and created a new demand zone which more likely than not will be tested before price continues higher.


----------



## Stockbailx (29 March 2022)

Were will it end up after the budget and elections? Head for the hills...I see it breaking the 7,900 mark?


----------



## Sean K (20 April 2022)

Triple top, or breaking through to ATHs?


----------



## Greynomad99 (20 April 2022)

Going higher in my view - around 8,500 to meet an overhead line of best fit up the weekly peaks going back to mid-2015 (perhaps 2010, depending on how that line is drawn). Nothing says it 'has' to do this, but it would maintain the pattern of the chart if nothing else. As a loosely related comment, there's an interesting article in the Business section of today's age about China's struggle with Covid. It reads something like a dystopian end of civilisation novel. China will get through it but I expect it to have its economy damaged in the process - and as a result ours might be in trouble as well. Might be worthwhile being more careful about China dependent stocks for a while?


----------



## Sean K (26 April 2022)

Sean K said:


> Triple top, or breaking through to ATHs?
> 
> View attachment 140593




Maybe a triple top... Should be some support around the moving averages and then 7500 ish. Maybe.


----------



## Cam019 (26 April 2022)

Cam019 said:


> Thought I'd respond to MA's post here. I'm with @Ann on this one - I actually see the XAO going higher.
> 
> Weekly demand zone shown below has now been mitigated and was not broken through.
> 
> ...


----------



## Sean K (27 April 2022)

Cam019 said:


>




I think we'll end up in the first level of 'daily demand' today and through the horizontal support zone. Maybe there will be some buying at those levels. Iron Ore up slightly which _might_ hold up BHP which will support the XAO. It's going to be a dramatic start...


----------



## Sean K (27 April 2022)

Today has gone as expected, so far, with some buying at the low point, still above that support line, but, it's tenuous.


----------



## Knobby22 (2 May 2022)

Its feeling like a correction to me. Another 10% drop maybe.


----------



## greggles (2 May 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> Its feeling like a correction to me. Another 10% drop maybe.




Looks to be support at around 7,250. If it plunges through there, things could get ugly. The "sell in May and go away" factor is about to kick in so there could be a bias to the downside until after the end of the current financial year.


----------



## divs4ever (2 May 2022)

will the Fed  concede to the Taper Tantrum ?

 IF it follows the path it has laid out already .. this could get messy , especially in the Government keeps pumping cash into the war machine ( OOPS ! i meant Ukraine )


----------



## KevinBB (2 May 2022)

greggles said:


> The "sell in May and go away" factor is about to kick in so there could be a bias to the downside until after the end of the current financial year.



I don't have stats for XAO, but I do have for the very similar XJO.

The sell in May and go away factor obviously doesn't apply to XJO in May. It might apply to other months, but not May. Look at the stats:

All four of the immediate past Mays have been up months.
Six of the past eight Mays have been up months.
Sure, before then there were some bad times, but as I've pointed out in another thread, that's ancient history. I'm happy to be still holding IOZ during May. It might go down, but there is every chance it won't.

KH


----------



## greggles (2 May 2022)

KevinBB said:


> I don't have stats for XAO, but I do have for the very similar XJO.
> 
> The sell in May and go away factor obviously doesn't apply to XJO in May. It might apply to other months, but not May. Look at the stats:
> 
> ...




My understanding of "Sell in May and go away" is it refers to tax loss selling that usually begins in May and goes until the end of the financial year. So it is May and June combined, not just May. Although I cannot say for sure whether it applies to indexes or just stocks that have under-performed and are likely to be sold at a loss before the end of the financial year.

It could also be a complete myth.


----------



## KevinBB (2 May 2022)

The original "Sell in May and go away" was from ancient times in the northern hemisphere, when holders would sell / reduce their stocks, go away for the summer holidays without a care in the world, and then come back on (according to many references) St Ledger's Day. So the traders would get their summer off on holidays, enjoy the autumn horse race, and then come back for a winter / spring of trading stocks.

Nothing to do with Aussie stocks.

For Australia, the reason that May can be a decent month is that everyone is stocking up on their bank shares, so that they meet the 45 day rule for all these juicy dividends and their attached franking credits that will be announced on Wednesday (ANZ), Thursday (NAB) and next Monday (WBC).

KH


----------



## Sean K (2 May 2022)

greggles said:


> Looks to be support at around 7,250. If it plunges through there, things could get ugly. The "sell in May and go away" factor is about to kick in so there could be a bias to the downside until after the end of the current financial year.




If 7500 ish breaks then yes, 7200 ish is the next point. Still some way to go to meet the lower edge of this 10 year channel. We have spent the majority of the time in the upper half of that channel though, so any plunge would likely be short lived and represent an excellent buying opportunity. If you add up the time above and below the median, it's odds on we're more likely to stay in the top half, above 7200 ish.


----------



## Greynomad99 (6 May 2022)

After a good strong recovery yesterday I was hopeful we might see a continuation of higher prices - but again the US has had another breath-taking fall overnight.  The XAO's candle yesterday closed at its highs and seemed to also suggested higher prices today. Unless the ASX totally disregards the US trading (unlikely) we'll probably see 7,500 and a close below that level (which is long-term support) could suggest 7,300 is possible. With the XAO in a technical uptrend and sitting above both that trendline and at the lower boundary of a price channel that has been tracking price for 4 months my best guess is we will see the wheels fall off on open but hopefully recover as the day progresses. But then it is Friday - which often turns to custard!
Good luck.
PS: My price channel placement is subjective and could be angled down a little (which would also cater for today's probable pullback).


----------



## eskys (6 May 2022)

Premarket slowly turning green, gold up a tad now


----------



## Sean K (19 May 2022)

This support might be tested again here. If that was a triple top I guess the downward target on a break down of support here would be the length of the break up. There's so much liquidity in the system though, I have a feeling any decent fall will be bought up and the Feds will kick the can down the road a bit longer.


----------



## Sean K (9 June 2022)

Not much of a change since the last review. The 7200 ish level and the mid-line of the 10 year chanel remains support. Well under the moving averages, so bias down for me. Looks like a down FY performance coming, well done to anyone who made a buck this FY.

We have tax-loss selling to come in the next 3 weeks, so could be a pretty ordinary year all up. Breaking down through that general 7200 level could be untidy.


----------



## greggles (9 June 2022)

I think we will hit bottom by the end of June, or rather I hope that we will. I think that most of the bad economic and geopolitical news is already factored in, the only thing that could see us go further south from July onwards is more bad news, such as widespread recessions in western economies.


----------



## Sean K (9 June 2022)

greggles said:


> I think we will hit bottom by the end of June, or rather I hope that we will. I think that most of the bad economic and geopolitical news is already factored in, the only thing that could see us go further south from July onwards is more bad news, such as widespread recessions in western economies.




Agree, I think a lot of pessimism is factored in. Higher interest rates and recession are already baked in I think. Any sign that inflation is being tamed in the next 6 months might be a surprise to the upside. How Ukraine unfolds is the big mystery. My bet is on Russia stopping at the Dnipro River and Ukraine ceding the east part of the country. But, if they refuse to give any land and continue to fight with Western backing, anything could still happen. Lots of stuff going on and uncertainty. Next thing you know, China owns Myanmar.


----------



## Greynomad99 (9 June 2022)

I've mothballed my trading for now as the market is totally unpredictable with fear of inflation, China, Russia, recession and even (God help us) - monkeypox!! Looking at the XAO chart I'm expecting it to rise back to 7500 and then maybe fall away again or maybe break higher - I can't see anything in the chart that tells me where we go from here that would be more reliable than the toss of a coin. However, (as always) the tide will turn eventually.


----------



## MovingAverage (9 June 2022)

Sean K said:


> Higher interest rates and recession are already baked in I think.



I was thinking that too at the start of the week...everyone expecting a rate rise so no surprises there. Then Tuesday rolls around and RBA announces rate rise then a big sell off of the banks. To me that suggested this wasn't already baked in. Granted the rate increase was higher than anticipated but to me it wasn't a massive surprise given a lot of experts are expecting further inflationary increases. Still think a lot of what is to come with the economic headwinds isn't baked into the market yet. Just my 2cents


----------



## Greynomad99 (10 June 2022)

US down another 2%+ overnight - so another day of pain and suffering here today. Hopefully just a lower opening followed by a recovery - but it is Friday which often turns to custard without much effort. Very little out there I would buy before having knocked off several large Scotches.


----------



## eskys (10 June 2022)

One positive; at least the banks have turned around this morning, hope they keep it up


----------



## eskys (10 June 2022)

A traders' market nowadays...looking at the top and bottoms for the four majors, and where they're at now


----------



## Greynomad99 (11 June 2022)

Looking at last night's US trading and that last week's XAO candle closed on its lows and made a lower low since the last trough I'd say it is time to circle the wagons and prepare for the worst next week. A fall (close) below 7030 would be very bad news. I've been holding onto a few MQG thinking they might buck the trend but alas - time to sell with them given they have also made a significant lower low.
Looks like it will get worse before it gets better.


----------



## eskys (11 June 2022)

Hmm, was thinking....maybe a good thing we have a day off on Monday..........


----------



## KevinBB (11 June 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> A fall (close) below 7030 would be very bad news.



If this happens and we get a drop on XJO down to 6500 or so, then you won't be able to see the sun because of moths flying out of my wallet.

KH


----------



## MovingAverage (11 June 2022)

Sure looks to be getting ugly. XAO closed the week at a new low and last time we were here was Feb/March 2021. CPI figures out of the US overnight have reached a new high of 8.6% with experts now suggesting the Fed could raise interest rates next week by 0.75%. Overnight the Dow dropped 880 points!! Hold on to your hats boys and girls...XAO in for a wild ride next week.


----------



## Gunnerguy (11 June 2022)

KevinBB said:


> If this happens and we get a drop on XJO down to 6500 or so, then you won't be able to see the sun because of moths flying out of my wallet.
> 
> KH



I was thinking about placing a Bull Put Credit spread at 6,400/6,000 yesterday but held back. 
It might be better to place one at 6,000/5,800 next week expiring in July.
I read somewhere that due to EOFY there’ll be a lot of volatility in June to close out positions and ‘manage’ CGT gains/ losses for the year.
Triple witching in the US next Thursday.
A bumpy week ahead.
Gunnerguy


----------



## Greynomad99 (11 June 2022)

KevinBB said:


> If this happens and we get a drop on XJO down to 6500 or so, then you won't be able to see the sun because of moths flying out of my wallet.
> 
> KH



I hope they are not like Icarus!


----------



## Sean K (14 June 2022)

Haven't seen a start like this in a while. Next stop might be the bottom of the chanel.


----------



## Gunnerguy (14 June 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> I was thinking about placing a Bull Put Credit spread at 6,400/6,000 yesterday but held back.
> It might be better to place one at 6,000/5,800 next week expiring in July.
> I read somewhere that due to EOFY there’ll be a lot of volatility in June to close out positions and ‘manage’ CGT gains/ losses for the year.
> Triple witching in the US next Thursday.
> ...



After today I am thinking if there is a further ‘capitulation’ drop it would be 15% and thus maybe selling a spread at 5,700, or maybe 5,300 for a real ‘the World is burning’ drop. But with inflation and ASX being heavily commodities and the suggestion that these suffer less in this inflation environment, who knows but a retracement all the way to 5,300 would have me surprised.
I really really don’t think it will go the Covid low of below 5,000.
A spread at 5,300/5,000 for August maybe ?
Lots of sellers for EOFY CGT management in June, then they’re all buy ins to boost the index in July/ August.
.... so selling a 5,300/5,000 for August for me I think. If it breaks 5,000, I’m pretty fu$ked anyway. Thank God I’ve got 1 years living expenses in ‘cash’.
Gunnerguy


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 June 2022)

Sean K said:


> Haven't seen a start like this in a while. Next stop might be the bottom of the chanel.





Gunnerguy said:


> After today I am thinking if there is a further ‘capitulation’ drop it would be 15% and thus maybe selling a spread at 5,700, or maybe 5,300 for a real ‘the World is burning’ drop. But with inflation and ASX being heavily commodities and the suggestion that these suffer less in this inflation environment, who knows but a retracement all the way to 5,300 would have me surprised.
> I really really don’t think it will go the Covid low of below 5,000.
> A spread at 5,300/5,000 for August maybe ?
> Lots of sellers for EOFY CGT management in June, then they’re all buy ins to boost the index in July/ August.
> ...



Thanks for those charts. 

I've done a few support resistance lines on the XAO and right where we are at 6700 seems good for a sideways movement and consolidation. Given all the fear who knows. Covid caused a bigger whack in 2020 with larger volumes because of the unknown. In fact most people were anticipating inflation, rate rises and a market fall, so it isn't that threatening as the Covid drop. Though it may be as grinding as the 2008 fall.

The question is where does it stop falling. Here at 6000, the best case or the worst being the lows of 2008 close to 3000. The latter given our commodities and energy seems unlikely, who knows.

Somewhere in between may be more reasonable. The Fibonnaci retracement to 20 years ago in 2002 shows 4720 and 6000 as likely support.

Just some thoughts. 





gg


----------



## qldfrog (14 June 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> After today I am thinking if there is a further ‘capitulation’ drop it would be 15% and thus maybe selling a spread at 5,700, or maybe 5,300 for a real ‘the World is burning’ drop. But with inflation and ASX being heavily commodities and the suggestion that these suffer less in this inflation environment, who knows but a retracement all the way to 5,300 would have me surprised.
> I really really don’t think it will go the Covid low of below 5,000.
> A spread at 5,300/5,000 for August maybe ?
> Lots of sellers for EOFY CGT management in June, then they’re all buy ins to boost the index in July/ August.
> ...



Gunner,
Why would you be pretty fuxxked if market falls down to 5k or even less.
We are still in the high 6k.
My own 20c is that you should not put yourself in that position..so cash ,options, reverse indexes..you have the choice even now to make the "can not happen" liveable.
Do it for your own good.


----------



## Gunnerguy (14 June 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Gunner,
> Why would you be pretty fuxxked if market falls down to 5k or even less.
> We are still in the high 6k.
> My own 20c is that you should not put yourself in that position..so cash ,options, reverse indexes..you have the choice even now to make the "can not happen" liveable.
> Do it for your own good.



So buying insurance, eg. BBOZ, buying puts at say 5,800, 5,500, 5,000. But this costs money, but yes, is insurance, but can cost a lot with the size of my portfolio. 
I’ll be fine for a year or so if we’re at 7,000 by June 2023, but I also think that my 14%+ annual for 25 years is going to suffer. 
When I say ‘fu$$ed’ what I mean is there May be no annual gains from the last high for ... 18 months maybe.
Gunnerguy


----------



## divs4ever (15 June 2022)

i was half expecting a 'dead cat bounce ' today  , 
but watching the US overnight  maybe i have mistimed that idea


----------



## qldfrog (15 June 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> So buying insurance, eg. BBOZ, buying puts at say 5,800, 5,500, 5,000. But this costs money, but yes, is insurance, but can cost a lot with the size of my portfolio.
> I’ll be fine for a year or so if we’re at 7,000 by June 2023, but I also think that my 14%+ annual for 25 years is going to suffer.
> When I say ‘fu$$ed’ what I mean is there May be no annual gains from the last high for ... 18 months maybe.
> Gunnerguy



You will learn what a bear market is,not really fuxxked 😊
Was worried you were geared etc and lose your home.
Welcome to the world  many European or Japanese people have been living in for a few decades


----------



## MrChow (24 June 2022)

Which is more likely to be hit first 5000 or 8000?

I think that is what 6500 is providing us about a 50/50 chance of recession.


----------



## divs4ever (24 June 2022)

MrChow said:


> Which is more likely to be hit first 5000 or 8000?



 i can see plenty of logical reasons the 5000 range will be tested  , but i have also seen some of the most outrageous and illogical policy moves  , that i could imagine 

 i picked 5xxx somewhere else  on this forum ... but FIRST  what about 8000 on some totally bogus news  that is taken as gospel by the MSM  ( and realism bites later )


----------



## Sean K (24 June 2022)

MrChow said:


> Which is more likely to be hit first 5000 or 8000?
> 
> I think that is what 6500 is providing us about a 50/50 chance of recession.




I think the US Fed will stop interest rate rises and propose cuts before we reach 5000 in their market terms and the can will be kicked down the road a bit further.


----------



## qldfrog (24 June 2022)

Sean K said:


> I think the US Fed will stop interest rate rises and propose cuts before we reach 5000 in their market terms and the can will be kicked down the road a bit further.



fully agree with the idea just not sure if their trigger will be 5000 or above/below


----------



## Gunnerguy (24 June 2022)

qldfrog said:


> fully agree with the idea just not sure if their trigger will be 5000 or above/below



I sold a spread at 5200/5000 about a week ago. I really don’t think it will be challenged. If We go below 6,000 I’ll sell loads of calls at 7400.


----------



## Sean K (7 July 2022)

If you think this 10 year channel has any merit and will be maintained, it seems good buying around these levels for long term investors. Unless the game has changed of course. Could always do a Covid plunge on another black swan too I guess.


----------



## KevinBB (7 July 2022)

Sean K said:


> If you think this 10 year channel has any merit and will be maintained, it seems good buying around these levels for long term investors. Unless the game has changed of course. Could always do a Covid plunge on another black swan too I guess.




Although it might be a while before the 50dma gets close enough to the bottom of the channel so that trade risk is reduced to a minuscule level.

KH


----------



## Sean K (14 July 2022)

KevinBB said:


> Although it might be a while before the 50dma gets close enough to the bottom of the channel so that trade risk is reduced to a minuscule level.
> 
> KH




50dma getting closer. I was expecting another leg down here, but seems to be consolidating well this month and taken in todays US inflation figures in it's stride. Perhaps all the bad news is factored in. Could we have seen a bottom at 6600... 🤔


----------



## KevinBB (15 July 2022)

Sean K said:


> I was expecting another leg down



The next leg down cometh
KH


----------



## Greynomad99 (20 July 2022)

The XAO has made a pattern with a break above resistance which suggests we could be moving up to 7,200.


----------



## Sean K (20 July 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> The XAO has made a pattern with a break above resistance which suggests we could be moving up to 7,200.
> 
> View attachment 144326




Agree. And 7200 is going to be hard to crack on the way back up.


----------



## Sean K (28 July 2022)

Approaching 7200 @Greynomad99, will be interesting to see how she reacts. Gone through 50dma @KevinBB


----------



## KevinBB (28 July 2022)

I topped up with a lot of stuff on 17 and 30 June, so just enjoying the break higher for the moment.

Goodness knows what has got into this (AU) market, also the US market. Facing 7+% inflation, with interest rates likely to be much higher than they are at the moment, its not a market where I really want to be.

KH


----------



## Sean K (28 July 2022)

KevinBB said:


> I topped up with a lot of stuff on 17 and 30 June, so just enjoying the break higher for the moment.
> 
> Goodness knows what has got into this (AU) market, also the US market. Facing 7+% inflation, with interest rates likely to be much higher than they are at the moment, its not a market where I really want to be.
> 
> KH




The US market was very interesting. Can only assume the 'bad' news was factored in and it wasn't worse than bad, so it was good. Up is down, right is left. Might be just part of the dead cat too.


----------



## Greynomad99 (28 July 2022)

Sean K said:


> Approaching 7200 @Greynomad99, will be interesting to see how she reacts. Gone through 50dma @KevinBB



It'll be tough to break 7,200 and stay above it. I gather the US and Europe have companies worth $9.4 trillion worth profit reporting today - whether that sees good news or bad news might be a deciding factor on short term direction.


----------



## Sean K (29 July 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> It'll be tough to break 7,200 and stay above it. I gather the US and Europe have companies worth $9.4 trillion worth profit reporting today - whether that sees good news or bad news might be a deciding factor on short term direction.




Pretty much touched 7200 and retreated. I thought there'd be more support at this level on the way down but was smashed. I guess it's stairways up and elevator down, so expect a decent pause here.


----------



## Greynomad99 (1 August 2022)

Sean K said:


> Pretty much touched 7200 and retreated. I thought there'd be more support at this level on the way down but was smashed. I guess it's stairways up and elevator down, so expect a decent pause here.



Another try to break above 7200 by the XAO today. I'm expecting after a run of good days the US will retreat tonight and we'll follow tomorrow - leaving 7,200 unbreached (for now).  Still a lot of volatility in the market - PNV, IMU etc


----------



## Sean K (12 August 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> Another try to break above 7200 by the XAO today. I'm expecting after a run of good days the US will retreat tonight and we'll follow tomorrow - leaving 7,200 unbreached (for now).  Still a lot of volatility in the market - PNV, IMU etc




Was held up around 7200 for a few days but seems to have pushed through. It's been a pretty hard run since mid June (potential) bottom. I'd like to see 7200 ish zone tested as support now to confirm we had a bottom in.


----------



## Sean K (16 August 2022)

Looks like 7500ish the next pause.


----------



## martyjames (16 August 2022)

XAO 200MA around 7430. My guess it will spike through it and then pull back


----------



## Sean K (23 August 2022)

I thought once we got through the 7200 zone which was also around the 50% Fib line that we were going to the 61% Fib line and perhaps the 50%/7200 area would be downward support. Might be the case, but not feeling confident in that at all.


----------



## Sean K (7 September 2022)

Tanked through 7200, a little bit of support around 6900, but otherwise, eeeek. (unless you've got your shorts on or cashed up)


----------



## KevinBB (7 September 2022)

@Sean K  eeeek is too mild a term. It should be eeeeeeeeeek! with 3 or 4 exclamation marks, at least.

Its a long way down to the next support level.

KH


----------



## Sean K (9 September 2022)

My crystal ball is dreaming up an inverse H&S set up here. But, he might be dreamin...


----------



## Sean K (3 November 2022)

Sean K said:


> My crystal ball is dreaming up an inverse H&S set up here. But, he might be dreamin...
> 
> View attachment 146588




That inverse H&S went straight to the pool room.

The 7200 region is adding up to some serious trouble, one way or the other.

It's my pick for the end of year XAO point, so I might get something right this year...


----------



## Sean K (11 November 2022)

Smashed through 7200. Bear trap?


----------



## BoNeZ (11 November 2022)

Sean K said:


> Smashed through 7200. Bear trap?



short squeeze


----------



## Sean K (14 November 2022)

I've changed the 7200 ish red resistance line into a blue support line for now. Also through the 200dsma which looks pretty positive. Hopefully the 7200 area is tested and the XAO hangs around this level to New Years so I can hold up the XAO yearly prediction trophy. Going to pick up a wooden spoon for just about everything else.


----------



## divs4ever (14 November 2022)

taking a breather , currently ( slightly negative )

 has the rally run out of puff  , or just waiting for buyer support ( to move higher ) ??

 feels too early for a Santa rally  to me , but i have been wrong before


----------



## brerwallabi (14 November 2022)

I


divs4ever said:


> taking a breather , currently ( slightly negative )
> 
> has the rally run out of puff  , or just waiting for buyer support ( to move higher ) ??
> 
> feels too early for a Santa rally  to me , but i have been wrong before



Its definitely too early for a Santa rally a good six weeks away, have a feeling we might hit 7500 before some news knocks it down again


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 November 2022)

brerwallabi said:


> Its definitely too early for a Santa rally a good six weeks away



I hate to be "that guy" but six weeks from today it will be Boxing Day.

There are 29 ASX trading days left before Christmas 2022.

If we're going to have a Santa rally then there's not a huge amount of time for it to occur.


----------



## divs4ever (15 November 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> I hate to be "that guy" but six weeks from today it will be Boxing Day.
> 
> There are 29 ASX trading days left before Christmas 2022.
> 
> If we're going to have a Santa rally then there's not a huge amount of time for it to occur.



Boxing Day to mid January  has seemed like Xmas  to me  in the last 11 years of investing ( but remember i normally buy small parcels )


----------



## Logique2 (13 December 2022)

Not the worst now, Dec 2022:


----------

