# China bucking the correction trend?



## YOUNG_TRADER (30 July 2007)

Is it just me or has China closed at record levels today?

Thats one mighty strong bubble if you ask me, mighty mighty strong!

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=


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## canglan (30 July 2007)

Yeah and people there are expecting the local market to go up further in August.

Chinese link: http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/20070730/07313831418.shtml




EDIT: Just so everyone knows, in Chinese stock market, Red is up, Green is down.


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## lusk (30 July 2007)

Maybe, but notice how the new highest peak is not confirmed by another high on your bar graph below. Thats a warning sign.


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## Wysiwyg (30 July 2007)

lusk said:


> Maybe, but notice how the new highest peak is not confirmed by another high on your bar graph below. Thats a warning sign.




Hey yoda , my man , how`s it goin bra.:vader:


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## sleeper88 (30 July 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Is it just me or has China closed at record levels today?
> 
> Thats one mighty strong bubble if you ask me, mighty mighty strong!
> 
> http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=




The reason is chinese investors have nowhere else to spend their money...no casinos, can't invest overseas, can't invest in HK (without a QDII)..so where do you think all the money goes?
Shanghai and Shenzen SS is one big casino for the rich and poor. The chinese govt is already implementing policies to slow the economy down, but to no avail atm.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (30 July 2007)

sleeper88 said:


> The reason is chinese investors have nowhere else to spend their money...no casinos, can't invest overseas, can't invest in HK (without a QDII)..so where do you think all the money goes?
> Shanghai and Shenzen SS is one big casino for the rich and poor. The chinese govt is already implementing policies to slow the economy down, but to no avail atm.




Maybe, but it does make you realise the importance of herd behaviour, the US and Aussir herds were jumping off the cliff, well US more than Aussie, but the Chinese herd said "To Infinity and Beyond!" ..........

I though it interesting to ponder


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## Pommiegranite (30 July 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Maybe, but it does make you realise the importance of herd behaviour, the US and Aussir herds were jumping off the cliff, well US more than Aussie, but the Chinese herd said "To Infinity and Beyond!" ..........
> 
> I though it interesting to ponder




Investing in shares is a relatively new experience for the Chinese public. 

Although the Chinese are aware of the history of stock market performances in 'the west'; Until they have been scarred by crashes and depressions such as 1929/1930s, 1987 etc, they will never manage risk effectivley.


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## dumpty (30 July 2007)

Maybe just maybe the Chinese have got it right .......after all they have a far longer history of trading and commerce than OZ, the US and even Europe.

Sure many of you have tried to do a deal with a Chinaman at some time of your life.

Now that capitalism is becoming available to more and more in mainland China it appears that they are embracing it and it is obvious that Greenspans analogy that "when China sneezes the world catches cold" is more applicable than saying that "if US sneezes" etc etc. 

The money may not be evenly shared in China but there is a lot of old money and a lot of very canny Chinamen.   

Same goes for India.......


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## wayneL (30 July 2007)

dumpty said:


> Maybe just maybe the Chinese have got it right .......after all they have a far longer history of trading and commerce than OZ, the US and even Europe.
> 
> Sure many of you have tried to do a deal with a Chinaman at some time of your life.
> 
> ...



That's drawing a pretty long bow. People are people and a bubble is a bubble.


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## Awesomandy (31 July 2007)

Myself being a Chinese with a western education, I wouldn't touch the Chinese market right now - not for short-medium term trading and/or investing anyway. Not unless somebody can point out to me that stocks with p/e of 60+ is sustainable, or unless it can be proven that the economy can continue to grow at such pace even when virtually all of the city workers spend their working hours trading on the market instead of doing productive work. 

From what I can see, one day, doubt will set in, and the money will run out. Then, a lot of people will get hurt - very badly hurt.


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## wigaz (31 July 2007)

Awesomandy said:


> Myself being a Chinese with a western education, I wouldn't touch the Chinese market right now - not for short-medium term trading and/or investing anyway. Not unless somebody can point out to me that stocks with p/e of 60+ is sustainable, or unless it can be proven that the economy can continue to grow at such pace even when virtually all of the city workers spend their working hours trading on the market instead of doing productive work.
> 
> From what I can see, one day, doubt will set in, and the money will run out. Then, a lot of people will get hurt - very badly hurt.




I agree with you Awesomandy. But as always the question is timing? I assume that the olympics in 2008 will have a big impact on their economy. That gives them, in my opinion, at least another year of reasonably positive outcomes. 

Can they can continue this for another 3/5years? I  am a little sceptical. That said, if someone had told me the ASX200 would be at 6400 a couple of years ago I would have scoffed at them.

One thing I think we have to remember is that this is a new market so therefore this might actually be the benchmark for the future or just the beginning of something spectacular?

Tell me your thoughts!

Cheers
W


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## wavepicker (31 July 2007)

It called also be the final "blowoff" happening now, in which case when it does terminate that could trigger another phase of downward pressure worldwide like it possibly did in February.


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## wigaz (31 July 2007)

True. I guess thats all we can do: guess. Time will tell though.

I would love to leap 12months into the future and see what happens! Back to the future 4? Hahah


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## gfresh (31 July 2007)

> It called also be the final "blowoff" happening now, in which case when it does terminate that could trigger another phase of downward pressure worldwide like it possibly did in February.




I agree.... Just look at their peak there on lighter volume, and they didn't blink when the rest of the world took a jump down last week. To me, it's just a matter of days before they correct in some way. Not just based on any external factors, but their own market itself.


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