# OZL - Oz Minerals



## LeeTV

OZ MINERALS LIMITED (OZL)

The merged entity of Oxiana ((OXR)) and Zinifex ((ZFX)).

OZ Minerals new ASX ticker code of *OZL *will be effective as of *Wednesday 23 July*.



*Macquarie* 23/07/2008 *Outperform* $3.10 49.0% 
For the first report on the merged entity, which will now be under the code ((OZL)), the broker notes quarterly production was as expected. The broker retains an Outperform on the new OZ Minerals and has reset the old Oxiana target of $4.00 to $3.10. 
On the EPS front, it's a case of dilution along with forecast lower zinc prices and higher costs. The result is falls of 46%, 56% and 47% in 2008-10. 


*Citi* 23/07/2008 *Buy, High Risk* $3.60 73.1% 
Citi says Oxiana's June quarter production report shows zinc and gold in-line with estimates but copper and lead lagging, while costs rose for fuel, acid, lime and flotation reagents. 
It maintains its Buy rating and $3.60 target price. 


*JP Morgan* 23/07/2008 *Overweight* $2.50 20.2% 
Target $2.50 (was $2.60). The group's production report was mixed in the broker's view as revised production guidance has resulted in cuts to earnings estimates. 
This flows through into a slight cut to its price target but there is no change to the broker's Overweight rating. 


*UBS *23/07/2008 *Neutral* $2.90 39.4% 
The June quarterly report from Oxiana showed output in line with UBS's forecasts. Group zinc production was 2.5% below analysts' forecast. 
The analysts believe Oxiana represents good value at current levels. Growth would seem to be around the corner with Prominent Hill on track for commissioning and first nickel sales from Avebury due in August, they note. 

The target price for the merged company is $2.90 (previously $3.75 for Oxiana). The broker reminds us all the name change to OZ Minerals takes effect from July 23rd. That's today. 


*Credit Suisse* 23/07/2008 *Underperform *$2.50 20.2% 
Production in the June quarter was in line with expectations but the broker suggests the result highlights the current cost pressures the group faces. 
To account for this the broker has cut its earnings estimates going forward, which supports its Underweight rating on the stock. 


*Deutsche Bank* 23/07/2008 *Hold* $2.60 25.0% 
Soon to be Oz Minerals, Oxiana reported one more time quarterly production figures on its own and they did not mesmerise analysts at Deutsche Bank. The analysts point out that zinc operations continue to disappoint due to a sinking zinc price but costs at various operations are an issue as well. 
Target price has fallen to $2.60 from $3.00. The broker doesn't see zinc prices recovering before 2009 and thus there's no catalyst for the shares, the analysts believe. 

Cuts made to earnings forecasts are quite sizeable.


*ABN Amro* 23/07/2008 rates OZL as *Buy* - This is the broker's first entry for the new OZ Minerals, the merged entity of Oxina ((OXR)) and Zinifex ((ZFX)). The first point to note is that the quarterly production reports of both were largely in line with expectations. 
Thereafter it's just a matter of establishing some merged forecasts. On a transition basis, the target has risen from $2.88 to $3.67. 

The company's fiscal year ends in December. ABN Amro forecasts a full year FY08 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 8.35 cents. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.00. 


Average Target Price *$2.95 *41.8% upside


*Admin note:* Oz Minerals (OZL) was formed by the merger of Oxiana (OXR) and Zinifex (ZFX). For previous discussion on OXR and ZFX please refer to their respective threads:

Oxiana: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4642

Zinifex: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2750


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## legs

Vote ushers in the beginning of OZ Minerals
22 Jul 2008


A new era in Australian mining commenced on 18 July with shareholders overwhelmingly approving the new name for the merged Oxiana and Zinifex businesses – OZ Minerals.

OZ Minerals CEO, Andrew Michelmore, who unveiled the new brand at the EGM held on Friday, said that the new corporate logo designed for OZ Minerals was an excellent graphic expression which captured who the company is and the principles it will stand for.

“The logo draws on the traditional stencil alphabets seen across Australia’s outback which, used traditionally on everyday signage, has a direct, no-nonsense appeal.

“It obviously draws on the achievements of the two companies with the linking of the O and Z, but it also has a great sense of forward motion, action and growth. This is very much who we are,” he said.

Mr Michelmore said that the colour yellow had been chosen for OZ Minerals’ corporate identity for a number of reasons.

“The experts say it is the colour of energy, clear thoughts and getting things done. It also has powerful positive associations in Asia. Regardless of theory, I believe it’s a terrific look for a great new company,” he said

Mr Michelmore said that expectations would be high for OZ Minerals as its starts life as the third largest diversified resources company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange.

“I acknowledge that the past couple of months have been difficult ones for shareholders but this new organisation is born from two companies with strong success stories and rich histories.

“With these unique qualities and the combined strength of our organisations we are confident we can achieve the growth and the results which we know we are capable of, while demonstrating leadership in responding to new challenges and expectations,” he said.

OZ Minerals currently has five mining operations located across Australia and in Asia, three new mining projects in development and a large portfolio of exploration projects throughout Australia, Asia and North America. It produces copper, zinc, lead as well as other base and precious metals.

“Our strong production base, attractive development pipeline and prospective exploration portfolio together with a sound financial position and prudent management means OZ Minerals is well-positioned to succeed and deliver solid value for shareholders.

“We launch OZ Minerals with a commitment to produce commodities efficiently and profitably and we see our people, communities and partners as core to our success. Together, we are creating a great resources company,” he said.

OZ Minerals new ASX ticker code of OZL will be effective as of Wednesday 23 July.


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## tm1234

new to asf but read some good posts.

just seeing if anyone has any views/opinions on investing in this stock at current prices

cheers tm


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## roland

well, I'm in at $1.975 - been wanting in since the name change and just waiting to buy on a dip, which presented itself today.


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## Nyden

roland said:


> well, I'm in at $1.975 - been wanting in since the name change and just waiting to buy on a dip, which presented itself today.




Wow, you're game Roland. Buying in at possibly the beginning of our markets next dip down to the 4xxx range 

I wish you luck! I'm steering clear of commodity stocks for the time being though. This new housing data in the US is only going to put downward pressure on copper / commodities imo... shake out some speculators.

I don't think we've been anywhere even close to the bottom yet; where's the sheer panic, the fear? I don't see any blood yet :

OXR's & ZFX's charts are enough to keep me out of this one for a while yet as well.


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## tulasi74

Nyden said:


> Wow, you're game Roland. Buying in at possibly the beginning of our markets next dip down to the 4xxx range
> 
> I wish you luck! I'm steering clear of commodity stocks for the time being though. This new housing data in the US is only going to put downward pressure on copper / commodities imo... shake out some speculators.
> 
> I don't think we've been anywhere even close to the bottom yet; where's the sheer panic, the fear? I don't see any blood yet :
> 
> OXR's & ZFX's charts are enough to keep me out of this one for a while yet as well.





Hey Nyden

Can you please expand on your comment about the charts. Would really appreciate some advice.  Thought it was a good buy at 3.11 and got in then and still holding.  Its hurting a lot.

Tulasi


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## Nyden

tulasi74 said:


> Hey Nyden
> 
> Can you please expand on your comment about the charts. Would really appreciate some advice.  Thought it was a good buy at 3.11 and got in then and still holding.  Its hurting a lot.
> 
> Tulasi




Well, being that neither stock exists anymore... I can't seem to find any charts. Although I don't follow T/A - being more of an FA myself ... I do place value in trends. Both ZFX & OXR were in terrible downward trends, especially ZFX; OXR wasn't any better though.

Fundamentally they don't look so great to me either; as it's my belief that many of these fundamentals are still in question - commodities could be nearly anywhere in a few years ... way up or down. We're all just probably placing too much hope on China.

Zinc, well; some say we'll be in deficit in a few years time ... others disagree. If it were a sure thing; surely this would already be priced in. Why isn't everyone buying Zinc if it's a *sure thing* that in 2 years there will be a shortage? Because it isn't a sure thing; & I think it was a very silly business move to dilute the share price on a punt.


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## roland

Ever the pessimist Nyden, gotta get in somewhere and I am missing ZFX 

Be it a bad method or not, it works for me to choose a stock and trade it to a position that I am happy with. If OZL goes up I'll probably sell it, on the other hand I have prepared myself for some weakness and can happily follow it to $1 if necessary and sell it off on the return.

OZL are extremely well diversified and have plenty of cash. They pay dividends, have a very liquid volume and have a mature management team. All in all I am comfortable with the position I have taken and expect I'll have quite a bit of fun and eventual profits - bring it on, up or down - I'm ready


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## Nyden

roland said:


> Ever the pessimist Nyden, gotta get in somewhere and I am missing ZFX
> 
> Be it a bad method or not, it works for me to choose a stock and trade it to a position that I am happy with. If OZL goes up I'll probably sell it, on the other hand I have prepared myself for some weakness and can happily follow it to $1 if necessary and sell it off on the return.
> 
> OZL are extremely well diversified and have plenty of cash. They pay dividends, have a very liquid volume and have a mature management team. All in all I am comfortable with the position I have taken and expect I'll have quite a bit of fun and eventual profits - bring it on, up or down - I'm ready




Gotta admit Roland, I admire your ability to bounce back!  So, despite my pessimistic view on this one ... I really do wish you well on it 

Bit off a bad view there though; you're ready to follow it down to a 50% loss? No stop losses or anything?


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## roland

Nyden said:


> Gotta admit Roland, I admire your ability to bounce back!  So, despite my pessimistic view on this one ... I really do wish you well on it
> 
> Bit off a bad view there though; you're ready to follow it down to a 50% loss? No stop losses or anything?




Stop Loss??? - nahhh, I watch my stocks every tick, every day and - after my "learning experience" with BBP I know when to bail.

"Bad View" - nahhh, call it another op to add at a better price


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## Nyden

roland said:


> Stop Loss??? - nahhh, I watch my stocks every tick, every day and -




Been there, & unfortunately done that! Not too good for the mental health I'm afraid, & I made a choice to never put myself into such situations again : It's strict stop-losses, small holdings, & following the trends all the way now  Unfortunately ... the only option my new criteria has allowed for me at the moment is a bankwest savings account  8.5%, and nights full of sleep!


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## oldblue

Here's my 

I hold OZL ( ex OXR ) at prices a bit north of current. Very keen on the OXR assets, less so on the Zinifex concentration on zinc. Prominent Hill coming into production later in the year will change that to a degree but zinc will still be the big metal.
So I'm still comfortable with the company but it has no track record in its present form and we need to see how the rejigged management performs. The present market will stop me buying.


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## stargazer

Hi

Is there any indication of the dividend that might be paid on OZL.

ZFX was i think around 1.40c
OXR was i think around 0.04c

Cheers
SG


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## subaru69

LeeTV said:


> ABN Amro forecasts a full year FY08 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 8.35 cents.




I've read here and somewhere else (can't remember where) that $0.08 is the best guess.  Things are tight, read: huge share price drop, for the 'new' entity so I don't see them spending too much on Div's.  The other issue is that they have insinuated that if assets are spun-off from BHP-RIO merging then they will want to buy, ie they need cash at hand.


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## bvbfan

Sharehoder buy back.

I've posted this on other forums so no need to reply here if you have already indicated elsewhere.

I'm fed up with the spin the company is trying and failing to put out to the market.

Time for shareholders to act!

Looking for those shareholders to call an EGM, we need 100.

So if you are a shareholder please put in here if you want to call an EGM.

We can discuss other issues if you want.

If you have holdings in multiple structures ie personal, company, superannuation then indicate if you are going to vote with those as well.

So for easy of tracking could you (those that have not posted at HC) say 

shareholder support EGM - X votes (X for the number of different holding structures - company, trust, individual)

For spam and privacy, don't place your email address here. PM me if you want

Thanks


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## bvbfan

For those opposed to a buyback have a read and then think about these issues...

Suppose OZL makes a bid for another company. They will have to bid at least 30-50% premium to current price. And even then that may not be enough.
The target company could have decent management and refuse the approach or heaven forbid they may even let their shareholders vote and the deal will not proceed if those shareholders see it in their best interests.

As for borrowing, I don't see the point in borrowing at perhaps 10-12% rates to buy something while also paying a 30-50% premium unless they have get a world class deposit with long mine life.

If they do try to buy something I'll be happy to bet this will trade under $1 before it trades over $4 again.

Think about it from an independent point of view, where you are looking at all the companies as an outside investor with no holdings. You buy the best stock that you see is most undervalued with least risk.
To me there are only a handful of companies with earnings capacity of $200mill+ a year in that field right now.

Going by that metric 
EQN, while cheap does have to tax issues and commissioning to get through. Also First Quantum hold a blocking stake.

SDL, while has huge potential the time frame to construct let alone the infrastructure costs of perhaps $2billion+ rule it out.

MOL, getting funding is the main issue. Harbinger and Twiggy holding about 25-30% of the stock which would also be a blocking stake. 
Funding wise, the kitty OZL has would be sufficient to get it constructed. It would bring in a new commodity similiar to nickel, but one with a much better fundamental outlook given energy needs in oil, coal to liquids, oil infrastructure.

ALB, I'm not familiar with but seems a possibility mentioned. Location I guess is the risk. There is a stake of about 20% waiting to be offloaded so I think it is a option that is in play. The costs after credits are about $2-3/lb so margins are pretty good still. Hedged a bit of production for 2009 at higher prices.

Finally
OZL, the only risks are with getting Prominent Hill online on time and on budget. The other risk is the declining zinc price making the ZFX operations loss making.
From broker reports I have seen they seem to think ZF operatins will deliver $100-150million in profit whereas OXR operations to add $250-300million in 2009.

Now to me, there are two stand out stocks to buy as an outsider.
Surely a buying OZL would be a better option than buying another company and having to pay 30-50% premium + adviser costs + a potential financial cost if the bid was over $1.5billion.

Also, a buyback will produce better returns in the long run once (if) zinc prices recover towards $1-1.25

So assuming profits get to $1billion in 2011 or so as per the broker reports, then the EPS would be 31c a share as it is now, or if 300million shares are bought back, 34.5c.
Using a P/E of 12 that would be a $3.72 share price or a $4.14.
About an extra return of 20% on current prices.


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## Sean K

bvbfan said:


> For those opposed to a buyback have a read and then think about these issues...
> 
> Suppose OZL makes a bid for another company.
> 
> Going by that metric
> EQN, while cheap does have to tax issues and commissioning to get through. Also First Quantum hold a blocking stake.



Posted this is the EQN thread.



kennas said:


> 1217 [Dow Jones] Share price weakness for Equinox Minerals (EQN.AU) makes company attractive to potential acquirers, says Credit Suisse. Canada's First Quantum (FM.T) is in box seat, already holds 17.3%, might even be able to fund bid at 100% premium, using debt. Equinox share price falls to near 1-year low of A$3.70 this week, down 26% since late June. *Company's Lumwana copper project in Zambia *was supposed to be commissioned last month, but fire at transformer delays progress. CS says Equinox immediate outlook clouded by Zambian fiscal uncertainty, but medium-term "stellar." Lumwana is 170,000-ton mine, one of largest additions in copper market in stressed supply environment. Other possible suitors OZ Minerals (OZL.AU), Xstrata (XTA.LN), *Lumwana already has offtake agreement with major Xstrata shareholder Glencore*. (EFB)



Everyone has a price, but you are right about the premium. Should anyone be paying top dollar in this environment?


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## Mofra

kennas said:


> Everyone has a price, but you are right about the premium. Should anyone be paying top dollar in this environment?



It certainly pays to develop contingency plans on all options, considering the bourse is currently sitting at 19 year lows on a P/E basis.

OZL may also benefit of looking smaller - the benefit to MGX from the AZR takeover could serve as an example, paying a premium pre-development/expansion can still deliver satisfactory returns in the hands of an experienced mine operator.


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## The Mint Man

what's going on with OZL today? 10% off atm and thats on top of the poor run lately! 
I checked LGL and noticed they were off so I thought I had better check OZL to se if they were in the same boat, and what do ya know!

Cheers


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## legs

metals took a hammering.. 

Lead 2001 -136.5 -6.39% USD/tn Market Close / Aug 04 
Copper 7734 -339 -4.20% USD/tn Market Close / Aug 04 
Nickel 17885 -285 -1.57% USD/tn Market Close / Aug 04 
Tin 20570 -980 -4.55% USD/tn Market Close / Aug 04 
Zinc 1756 -77.5 -4.23% USD/tn Market Close / Aug 04 


thats enough to do this i believe..However I thought they were cheap at their current price..IMHO


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## jono_oz

I am beginning to wonder how many of these 10% drops are driven by short selling from the companies themselves, in an attempt to make share buybacks so much cheaper.


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## Nyden

As legs said - metals were down. As is gold...

No reason for it to go up really IMO - everyone already knows about PH; so it's obviously already factored into the price; therefore I doubt there's any medium-term gain on this one (aside from trading the roller coaster)

Play with dogs, gonna get bitten ... sorry guys


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## tulasi74

The price of zinc has been falling on falling demand for zinc from China presumably.

The table on this website appears to indicate that demand might actually be rising.

http://www.chinamining.org/Statistics/2008-06-27/1214498424d14675.html


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## agro

*OZ Minerals Says Chinese May Be Interested in Company (Update2)  *

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aNJEWMR8khVw&refer=australia

*
OZ Minerals 'a foreign takeover target'*
http://news.smh.com.au/national/oz-minerals-a-foreign-takeover-target-20080804-3prg.html


i disclose holdings


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## Ken

I am not suprised oxr now ozl has slid as far as it has. There was massive support around $2.5o ish that got broken, so that brought in the short sellers.

Then seeing as ZFX was also a top 50 company and so was OXR big super funds probly owned both stock. So once the company merged they more than likely were forced to sell there holdings to balance up.

Along with OXR buying the negative ZInc assets which has been a poor performer on the spot price.

Put this all together with falling metal prices and of course the OZL is going to come unde pressure.

I am just commenting on what I see has happened.

What the future holds is a good question, but we know that value comes through in the end once sentiment turns, and in my opinion prominent hill should deliver value.

Take over talk is always speculative but you would have to think that they are under the microscope at these levels as they are a diversified company.


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## Sean K

Ken said:


> Take over talk is always speculative but you would have to think that they are under the microscope at these levels as they are a diversified company.



Yeah, I agree. Not sure who has the size to take them. BHP and RIO are obviously busy with other things. Xstrata has just announced a 10b offer for Lonmin. What's Vale up to? I read somewhere they were looking for copper and coal to add on. Maybe Freeport? Anglo American? Just all plucks obviously.


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## GREENS

The problem is that companies are not after diversified base metal plays at the moment, they’d much prefer to pick up single assets or single commodity companies of their liking. Plus everyone seems to be staying well away from anything related to zinc at the moment, which makes a takeover of OZL more unlikely given they have a substantial inventory of the metal.


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## Knobby22

GREENS said:


> The problem is that companies are not after diversified base metal plays at the moment, they’d much prefer to pick up single assets or single commodity companies of their liking. Plus everyone seems to be staying well away from anything related to zinc at the moment, which makes a takeover of OZL more unlikely given they have a substantial inventory of the metal.




I think one of the main reasons they are being sold down is that international investors are getting out of Aussie stocks due to the dollar fall.

I am a long term holder and am upset with the price at present but you cannot sell at this level as now that OZL is cashed up it will be able to pick up some bargains at present prices and so has the ability to grow to the next level.


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## diliff

legs said:


> metals took a hammering..
> 
> Lead 2001 -136.5 -6.39% USD/tn Market Close / Aug 04
> Copper 7734 -339 -4.20% USD/tn Market Close / Aug 04
> Nickel 17885 -285 -1.57% USD/tn Market Close / Aug 04
> Tin 20570 -980 -4.55% USD/tn Market Close / Aug 04
> Zinc 1756 -77.5 -4.23% USD/tn Market Close / Aug 04
> 
> 
> thats enough to do this i believe..However I thought they were cheap at their current price..IMHO




Where did you get those metal quotes if you don't mind me asking? Also, I've struggled to find iron ore prices when I've searched in the past.


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## legs

diliff said:


> Where did you get those metal quotes if you don't mind me asking? Also, I've struggled to find iron ore prices when I've searched in the past.




http://www.news.com.au/business/markets/

Is a great web page now with alot of info right there at your hands...


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## nioka

OZL must be a disappointment for many investors. Surely it has reached a bottom. In it's current report it makes very little mention of the nickel from the AGM take over by ZFX. The ex holders of ZFX must be wondering what went wrong or is it that ZFX went wrong. I've been sitting on the sidelines watching and looking for an opportunity to shift my investment in MCR (which hasn't been doing too good either) into OZL. With the drop in OZL with heavy selling today and the rise in MCR due to a good profit report I have switched most of my MCR into OZL. I'll continue to look for opportunities to trade back and forth between those two to increase my holding without further outlay of capital.


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## Bolivia

Looks to me like there was alot of buying leading into the result because of a potential buyback. Well guess what? They have categorically said that they intend to grow through acquisition. Sorry shareholders, no buyback. Shareprice smashed!

The stupid thing is, if they initiated a large ($2Bill) buyback (which they can afford), the share price would rocket. With the share price alot higher this would give them much greater scope for acquistions. Paying precious cash for an acquisition target right now seems stupid. Especially if they have to launch a takeover bid with premiums etc. 

The only conclusion I can come to by them not initiating a buyback, is that they actually are close to announcing some large acquistion. What is going to happen to the share price then if they over pay?

Overall, I am disappointed with management so far and hold fears that it might take alot longer to turn around this sinking ship than first thought.

(I hold OZL but not sure for how long!)


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## gav

Did anyone else notice this massive trade at 4:12pm this afternoon? 

Time             Price    Volume       Value            Condition
04:12:45M  1.803   3,300,000   5,949,900.00  XTOS


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## Aargh!

gav said:


> Did anyone else notice this massive trade at 4:12pm this afternoon?
> 
> Time             Price    Volume       Value            Condition
> 04:12:45M  1.803   3,300,000   5,949,900.00  XTOS




Chicken feed cross trade. Doesn't mean much. Saw one last year for OXR that was $80mil from memory...........


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## gav

well feel free to throw some chicken-feed my way any day :



Gav


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## jonnycage

hopefully these guys will pick up,  not a lot of positive
news to play with at present,  do wish i had sold my zinifex shares
over the 20 dollar mark though...

jonny


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## Mofra

Looks like OZL is starting a consolidation phase after the extended downtrend. Reasonably positive price activity Ex div however that appears to be as much market-driven than by design. Problem is IVs are dropping for the option players as the price stabilises.


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## daaussie

Please explain what IVs are? 

I invested at $10.40 a share before the merger. I am quite disappointed and can relate to the other guy.
I will be holding on for the long term with this stock as I think it can turn in the medium term as it has proved in the past!


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## gav

well, for the last three weeks this one has always made a comeback to finish at or above $1.80 by the end of the week.  This week it bucked the trend and finished the week at $1.75...


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## nioka

Interesting trade shown for OZL this morning in preopen time. 2,323,391 for the sum of $8,433,723. That equates to an average price of $3.60 plus. Someone is carring a decent loss on these today. Maybe they were transferred to a super fund at a good price, who knows what the story is behind that trade or trades.


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## nioka

nioka said:


> Interesting trade shown for OZL this morning in preopen time. 2,323,391 for the sum of $8,433,723. That equates to an average price of $3.60 plus. Someone is carring a decent loss on these today. Maybe they were transferred to a super fund at a good price, who knows what the story is behind that trade or trades.




 Another trade before opening this morning2,258,762 shares for $7,058,859 which equals $3.125 per share. Does anyone have an explanation?


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## Greg71

Could it possibly be options being exercised early, such as September puts? Maybe someone accumulated and pyramided puts on the way with long expiry. After the recent slaughter of this stock, they may have decided to take profits early.


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## nioka

Greg71 said:


> Could it possibly be options being exercised early, such as September puts? Maybe someone accumulated and pyramided puts on the way with long expiry. After the recent slaughter of this stock, they may have decided to take profits early.




For someone to take a profit then there is someone taking a loss. In this case it is a large loss. Options are often taken on without the cash to back up the deal. If someone has had to "buy" at that price and they have now to "sell" again it could be helping to keep the OZL SP down. The OZL price has fallen more than the fall in commodity prices would suggest was necessary.


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## nioka

It is on again today. Another sale, pre open, of 1,535,653 shares for $4,848,940 which equals $3.16 per share.Now for three days in a row and possibly a lot longer. I may have not noticed earlier episodes. This trading is costing someone a lot of money and probably costing all holders a little, one way or another.


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## Sean K

I don't know why that's happening Noirua. Damn interesting though.

Maybe call the company and ask them?


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## PhoenixXx

Oh no....what's happening with this little poor OZL...

she is going to hit the 52 weeks Low soon...

it's breaking my heart....


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## Nyden

Looks like the 52 week low might just get smashed today ...
I came incredibly close to buying some OZL on Wednesday; thank goodness I didn't! 

Indicative price for open is already 1.61; who knows how far she could tumble. There's been fair support around this area lately; with some decent bounces off of it - if breached where's the price headed? 

The weak AUD may at least act as a cushion preventing any catastrophic falls; but will that last? Surely the USD is in worse shape than the skippy - what will happen if she recovers against the USD, and commodities do not?

Gosh, we really are on the long-term edge here! Touching the Jan 06 low before the break-out. Next stop, $1-$1.5?

 ... Just a whole lot of contradictions in the market, really. US in recession, retail sales down, unemployment up ... USD up?!


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## nioka

And once more some interesting preopen sales. 1,673,615 for $4,995,281. Average price$2.985. When will this end????? In the words of Professor Summner Miller "why is it so?"


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## PhoenixXx

I took a big punt on OXR when it was above $3, and kept on buying since then. And taking into account the slumping commodity prices of copper, Zinc, Nickel, is there any other reason why OZL has been hammered very very hard? I would love to hear ASF-ers comments as can't see its bottom. and i hope i'm not the only one in a great depression, care to share?


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## Nyden

PhoenixXx said:


> I took a big punt on OXR when it was above $3, and kept on buying since then. And taking into account the slumping commodity prices of copper, Zinc, Nickel, is there any other reason why OZL has been hammered very very hard? I would love to hear ASF-ers comments as can't see its bottom. and i hope i'm not the only one in a great depression, care to share?




Sentiment. Zinc probably being a large part of the trigger; the price of Zinc has plummeted in recent times, and so has copper.

More people are starting to consider the possibility that the commodities-boom is over as well (I'm an avid believer in this; especially with regards to base metals), and that will obviously have a terrible effect on SP. With a global-slow down looking more and more likely ... there is support for this theory.

In short, she's just a dog  Fine to trade with (came close the other day! Phew), but I wouldn't be investing in it.

Oh, and just a question - this always baffles me. Why have you held on since $3 to now? What would posses you? I held OXR at $3-something as well, but I got out once it touched the high $2.xx mark ... why wouldn't you at least use some sort of stop? I guess I just don't understand, sorry. 

Is it that you really believe that in the short-to-medium term the SP is going to double back to over $3? If you believe in the long-term fundamentals, then why not sit on the fence and wait for a new strong trend to develop? I guess it just sounds more like gambling than investing to me .... Not giving advice, just trying to see your mindset


----------



## nioka

PhoenixXx said:


> I took a big punt on OXR when it was above $3, and kept on buying since then. And taking into account the slumping commodity prices of copper, Zinc, Nickel, is there any other reason why OZL has been hammered very very hard? I would love to hear ASF-ers comments as can't see its bottom. and i hope i'm not the only one in a great depression, care to share?



 By the volume of selling and the "odd" sales made preopen I suggest there is an amount of forced selling going on with OZL. Probably assisted by margin calls. Add to that the lemming factor and the declining metal prices and you have an uncertain immediate future. There is also no news that I have seen regarding the ex AGM nickel project so there may be a hold up there also. 

That's the bad news. The good news is that the fundamentals are sound and there is no reason to panic as there is plenty of room for improvement and OZL should be capable of returning a satisfactory return to investors in the medium turn. I'm happy to hold. DYOR.


----------



## Nyden

nioka said:


> That's the bad news. The good news is that the fundamentals are sound and there is no reason to panic as there is plenty of room for improvement and OZL should be capable of returning a satisfactory return to investors in the medium turn. I'm happy to hold. DYOR.




Can you say with certainty though that the fundamentals are sound? What if we do go into a deep and long global recession - China included? Europe looks bad, the US looks bad, property prices are falling, commodity prices are falling...

Not everyone who sells to protect capital is a lemming. I remember I sold off a few stocks during the little "crash" we had a few months back; turned out to have been a fantastic decision!


----------



## animadverto

Sentiment maybe? 

I read somewhere that the US based $2.8B Ospiriae Hedge Fund has closed down with heavy losses - apparently it was heavily invested in OZL + other resources- so my guess is they're dumping OZL.

Does that explain the huge x-trades lately?

There's also a lot of shorting on OZL by large and small traders who play OZL because its an attractive liquid trade (Should shorting be banned in markets?- another topic!) 

Large traders appear to have fun screwing with OZL sp by shorting it to death.

Chinese also holding back buying base metals until price is right??

Fundamentally the book value of the mines OZL owns are greater than their market value at the moment. 

Sentiment?? Who knows -OZL sp getting hammered today. I hold OZL but for how long?


----------



## PhoenixXx

nioka said:


> ...The good news is that the fundamentals are sound and there is no reason to panic as there is plenty of room for improvement and OZL should be capable of returning a satisfactory return to investors in the medium turn...




Well...more or less i do have the same perspective as you nioka. And to answer your question Nyden is the very same reason i quoted above by Nioka. Anyway thanx for the comments guys, i really appreciate it. And since the beginning of the year i had cut 1/2 of my portfolio in retails and financials, but left OZL as my total bet as commodity tends to be the safe heaven when financials crashes. And yes Nyden i feel like i am gambling and not investing.


----------



## PhoenixXx

animadverto said:


> ...I read somewhere that the US based $2.8B Ospiriae Hedge Fund has closed down with heavy losses - apparently it was heavily invested in OZL + other resources- so my guess is they're dumping OZL...




I hope someone else would like to share more on this info. And i do realize that OZL is not the only mid-cap stock that had been hammered heavily lately but for Australia's no.3 diversified miner (correct me if i'm wrong) & World's no.2 zinc producer to be hammered this much, i'm just frustrated


----------



## nioka

PhoenixXx said:


> And yes Nyden i feel like i am gambling and not investing.




 Why would you think of OZL as a gamble. It is not a spec stock by any means. It is a productive unit with a cash balance and some diversity in it's operations. It is no more a gamble than life itself. Sure the daily price will fluctuate but the "value" changes little. It is, today, a traders stock but generally it is an investors stock and an investor would hold on the fundamentals.


----------



## brty

PhoenixXx,

I knew someone who bought Pasminco, just the way you have bought OZL. They bought more and more as the price fell.

Why??

Where is your stop??

Just because 'fundamentals' look good to you, does not mean they are good.

We can and are all wrong in our trading/investing throughout our lives, we just need to realize when we are wrong and do something about it before it hurts us.

brty


----------



## nioka

brty said:


> Just because 'fundamentals' look good to you, does not mean they are good.




The fundamentals look good because they ARE good. It is the gambling traders working with huge leverage that have the bad fundamentals in most cases like these. Maybe some are learning the wisdom of "neither a borrower nor a lender be". The big problem in these times is that there are not enough true investors and too many traders wanting instant riches operating. In that type of enviroment there has to be a loser for there to be a winner. An investor only loses if and when they sell in most cases.


----------



## PhoenixXx

nioka said:


> Why would you think of OZL as a gamble...




No nioka, i did not specifically pointed OZL as my gamble. I was referring to a broader term. As nowadays i do believe the sp of some companies do not reflect their true value with their current sp, that's why i said i felt more like gambling and not investing.


----------



## PhoenixXx

brty said:


> ...Where is your stop??...




Appreciate your advice brty, but as OZL is my mid-long term invest, i have not put my stop loss. On all other short-terms like CFD & forex i generally put a stop of 5-10%


----------



## Ashsaege

PhoenixXx said:


> Appreciate your advice brty, but as OZL is my mid-long term invest, i have not put my stop loss. On all other short-terms like CFD & forex i generally put a stop of 5-10%




... so if you have 10 bad trades you could lose 50-100%? depending on your position size, wouldn't 2-5% stop loss be more ideal?


----------



## spartn

PhoenixXx said:


> I took a big punt on OXR when it was above $3, and kept on buying since then. And taking into account the slumping commodity prices of copper, Zinc, Nickel, is there any other reason why OZL has been hammered very very hard? I would love to hear ASF-ers comments as can't see its bottom. and i hope i'm not the only one in a great depression, care to share?




Hey Guyz

Surely doesn't the large amount of issued capital of OZL have something to do with the share price tanking. It almost has 3.5 billion issued shares, that has got to be a contributing factor too why share price isn't doing so well. At $1.50 they have a P/E off 11. Unless they do massive, massive buyback. I personnally don't like the short term future for the share price. 

Cheers 

Spartn 

P.S. I am not a personal advisor so don't take my advice seriously.


----------



## PhoenixXx

Ashsaege said:


> ...wouldn't 2-5% stop loss be more ideal?




With 2-5%, the good thing is you would not lose that much, but with the volatility of the current market, your position could be terminated easily.
Having said that i should consider putting a stop loss on my mid-long term investments.


----------



## nioka

spartn said:


> Hey Guyz
> 
> Surely doesn't the large amount of issued capital of OZL have something to do with the share price tanking. It almost has 3.5 billion issued shares, that has got to be a contributing factor too why share price isn't doing so well. At $1.50 they have a P/E off 11. Unless they do massive, massive buyback. I personnally don't like the short term future for the share price.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Spartn
> 
> P.S. I am not a personal advisor so don't take my advice seriously.




Do you make any allowance for the fact that the company has new production coming on line that will allow for the PE ratio to improve significantly in the near fyture. eg. the nickel production from the "ex" AGM
mine which must be close to production. I'm buying not selling. This is where a stop loss arrangement for a genuine investor is not necessary. My policy is to look at the situation daily and if the fundamentals say it is still a good investment then I can see no reason to sell and often a good reason to buy. I'm not right all the time but I get it right often enough to be happy with the overall result.

 If it was a case of the large amount of issued capital being a problem why do we have any big companies. The size is some protection from takeover raids as happened to AGM.

I for one will not take your advice seriously but others may. DYOR.


----------



## Hendrik

nioka said:


> Do you make any allowance for the fact that the company has new production coming on line that will allow for the PE ratio to improve significantly in the near fyture. eg. the nickel production from the "ex" AGM
> mine which must be close to production. I'm buying not selling. This is where a stop loss arrangement for a genuine investor is not necessary. My policy is to look at the situation daily and if the fundamentals say it is still a good investment then I can see no reason to sell and often a good reason to buy. I'm not right all the time but I get it right often enough to be happy with the overall result.
> 
> If it was a case of the large amount of issued capital being a problem why do we have any big companies. The size is some protection from takeover raids as happened to AGM.
> 
> I for one will not take your advice seriously but others may. DYOR.



Im with you on this one bud, but im not going to jump the gun.

was thinking about buying in at 1.75 which was support for a some time but its reaching new lows again so it really comes down to what type of trade your looking for, if its long term, then yes its a steal IMO.

DYOR


----------



## master82

Bought 10000 OZL at 1.65 yesterday, sold today at $1.50 - shocking

I sold like any newbies would in panic - maybe I should just hold OZL and wait for next week, I don't know I just lost control - all I wanted to do was sell, sell and sell to cut losses.

The market is too volatile for the beginers at the moment, I think I should sell my portfolio and sit on the sideline until condition improves.


----------



## PhoenixXx

master82 said:


> ...I sold like any newbies would in panic...




At least you are one step ahead of me...which is by having a stop loss...
Unlike me...instead of cutting my loss, i built my pyramid even bigger.

Having said that, i still hold and haven't sold any since OXR $3.xx


----------



## booboo

On Trading Matters a week or so ago a fund manager mentioned there was a 30% short interest in OZL!! 

30% of 3.5 billion = around 1 billion shares short, anyone up for a short squeeze..... 

if only I was the CEO...


----------



## Mofra

booboo said:


> On Trading Matters a week or so ago a fund manager mentioned there was a 30% short interest in OZL!!
> 
> 30% of 3.5 billion = around 1 billion shares short, anyone up for a short squeeze.....
> 
> if only I was the CEO...



30%! I was under the impression that ASX short sale rules had restriction on the % of any stock that could be short sold at any one time; rules that had been in place since the 1929 crash due to a stock short squeeze sucking the life out of the market


----------



## nioka

nioka said:


> And once more some interesting preopen sales. 1,673,615 for $4,995,281. Average price$2.985. When will this end????? In the words of Professor Summner Miller "why is it so?"



And again. This time 1,309247 shares for $3,786,200 An average price of $2.89. While this continues and stories circulate regarding hedge fund trading in this stock we can not be sure which way the price will go. However the fundamentals are good as I see them so it is a case of hold on, maybe accumulate and wait for better times.


----------



## Nicks

Hedge funds could well be shorting OZL. When a SP tanks this much so quick, panic sets in and hedgies can do the rest. The stock can fall to 0 regardless of the fundamentals. That said such a weak SP then creates new problems, which contribute to the panic.
I for one got out as soon as I smelled hedge funds. Held my stock from ZFX to ee it rise sy only to drop even harder. I took a beating on some other hedge targetted stocks and am not making the mistake again.


----------



## Nicks

I just need to get this off my chest as it has been on there for a while. I think 'OZ Minerals' is a stupid name for the company. Not very original. There I said it.


----------



## oldblue

Yes, Nicks, a lot of us would agree with you but as old Will S said, a rose by any other name would smell as sweet - or, as in this case, would stink as badly!


----------



## gxshen

is the drop of SP mainly contributed by hedge funds? Are they stupid? If SP drops to zero, how can they make money from it? I guess mainly because of FA. But the fundmental of the compnay is still good. OZL is still good for long and expected to get a reverse in coming weeks!


----------



## jonnycage

with you on the name change,  awful and no doubt responsible
for the slide 


gotta pick up some time, one would hope

jonny


----------



## gxshen

Just see short sight of some people. If you are shorting the stock, then you catch a bad time. For long holding, then just be patient. What worst would happen to the 3rd largest Australian mining company? Dont ignore those analyses and valuation from big financial institutes. Are you more professional to value this stock than them? If it would die, then how about other smaller mining companies? How would they survive?


----------



## oldblue

jonnycage said:


> with you on the name change,  awful and no doubt responsible
> for the slide
> 
> 
> gotta pick up some time, one would hope
> 
> jonny




If only it were that simple!
There are a few other small issues such as the drop in the price of zinc - made much worse by the ZFX acquisition - and the general retracement of commodities in general, the uncertain world economic outlook and the big bad bear market which developed since the "merger" was first announced.

Disc: Holding, but now a longterm proposition.


----------



## nioka

Nicks said:


> I just need to get this off my chest as it has been on there for a while. I think 'OZ Minerals' is a stupid name for the company. Not very original. There I said it.



 I agree with you there. It didn't show much imagination but it should not be the answer to the dive in the SP. The only consoling factor for me is that I "traded" MCR shares for OZL whem MCR was above OZL and increased the number of shares I held and now I could trade back the other way for a further increase in the number I hold. I intend to keep trading these two this way as their relative price varies.


----------



## alleyronin

Nicks said:


> I just need to get this off my chest as it has been on there for a while. *I think 'OZ Minerals' is a stupid name for the company*. Not very original. There I said it




Very unstable....... like the ozone molecule 

Why don't we try and come up with a better alternative? :


----------



## YELNATS

Nicks said:


> I just need to get this off my chest as it has been on there for a while. I think 'OZ Minerals' is a stupid name for the company. Not very original. There I said it.




Agreed, as a holder of both OXR and ZFX at the time of the merger, "OZ Minerals" was a very lame, unexciting choice. Guess we're stuck with it though unless another merger/takeover is in the offing.


----------



## nioka

Preopen trade again today. 2,143,795 for $6,893,629. That averages $3.215. If this trading is done on a margin loan the I can see these being resold today for less than half that price. These sales must account for part of the reason for a slump in the SP. I'm waiting for someone to come up with an answer to the question "how many OZL shares are subject to options and at what price?"

Options trading is a blight on the investment market the way it is conducted these days.


----------



## PhoenixXx

I noticed this preopen trade since May with about the same average price.
I do believe these sales must account for part of the reason for a slump in the SP.
I wish someone can come up with the answer......


----------



## Sean K

PhoenixXx said:


> I noticed this preopen trade since May with about the same average price.
> I do believe these sales must account for part of the reason for a slump in the SP.
> I wish someone can come up with the answer......



Guys, CALL THE COMPANY!!!!

I'm not going to do it for you from Brazil.

The people who answer the phone are normally very helpful.

If they are not, put a strike against their name.

http://www.ozminerals.com/Contact.html


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## PhoenixXx

Hi Kennas,
thanks for your advice........
I already sent them a email....
just waiting for their reply....


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## oldblue

I've also emailed the company.
What's the odds on a reply along the lines of " We are not aware of any untoward activity and can't explain those strange preopen sales."
Or maybe I've become a bit cynical about this company.


----------



## PhoenixXx

oldblue said:


> I've also emailed the company.
> What's the odds on a reply along the lines of " We are not aware of any untoward activity and can't explain those strange preopen sales."
> Or maybe I've become a bit cynical about this company.




thanks for the info....
i'm still waiting for their reply.........
I also become a bit cynical about this company.....


----------



## gxshen

oldblue said:


> I've also emailed the company.
> What's the odds on a reply along the lines of " We are not aware of any untoward activity and can't explain those strange preopen sales."
> Or maybe I've become a bit cynical about this company.




Or the preopen sales are related to those directors, so they want to hide something by replying an email like this?


----------



## PhoenixXx

> Zinc mine shut down a one-off
> Tuesday September 9, 2008, 10:28 am
> 
> The Minerals Council does not expect other zinc mines to follow Intec's lead and suspend their Tasmanian operations.
> 
> The Sydney-based owners are closing the mine because of falling zinc and lead prices and rising production costs.
> 
> Almost all the mine's 50 workers are locals, and have been given two weeks notice.
> 
> Terry Long from the Minerals Council says other zinc operators are better protected because they are bigger and have other commodities.
> 
> "The companies in other parts of the state have weathered the troughs of cycles and peaks of cycles even in the past few years, so I don't expect any dramatic extrapolation of that through the rest of the industry," Mr Long said.




I posted the same quotation on INL but i have a different opinion on OZL. The fact that more small zinc miners closing down means less supply, and it's just the matter of demand. Let's just wait and see for more demand...OZL should be huge enough to avoid the closing of the mine. If the biggest zinc producer in Australia & 2nd biggest zinc producer in the world also close down...then...the rest is history


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## oldblue

Yes, I wouldn't expect Century to be closed, unless the PoZ gets a lot worse of course, but wouldn't be so sure about Rosebery which has only about an eighth the output of Century.
Wouldn't know about the respective costs of production - OZL's first quarterly report ( the latest) carefully omitted this information.


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## doogie_goes_off

Production cost at Rosebery has gone up considerably because it is now a deep operation, however the circuit at Rosebery produces a copper-gold concentrate and lead-silver that goes to SA (Whyalla?/Port Pirie?) and Zn that goes to Hobart for Electrolytic Zinc production (all from memory). Zinc production is cheap due to good deal with Tas gov't for cheap power. Rosebery has a large reserve still and is high grade. The focus will be on finding more near by = exploration cost but not at the expense of production at a profit, so I'd say Century was the more marginal but I haven't read latest Annual Reports etc. Rosebery also toll treats Bass Metals Que River ore making a profit on the side with no 'opex cost' except for running the mill.

Rosebery will continue to be profitable at lower Zn prices IMHO.


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## oldblue

Thanks, d-g-o. A lot more and better information than is coming out of OZL at present!
Meanwhile, no reply from the company but not holding my breath!


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## oldblue

Well, I received a reply from the company. It didn't address my question re the preopen trading but at least it shows that someone is awake at Head Office.
Or maybe, it was a computer - generated reply?


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## oldblue

I've been doing some more thinking about these preopen trades at "unreal" prices and have come to the conclusion that they must represent the exercising of put options that were written several months ago. The fact that they are at the same or very similar prices, but reported over a period of time would be consistent with that.
I'm not familiar with how such trades are recorded but it would make sense for them to be shown separately from the day's trading. Perhaps someone could throw some light on this?
Incidentally, I can recall a broker friend of mine telling me a couple of years ago that OXR was one of the most heavily traded options stocks after such favourites as BHP and RIO.


----------



## Nicks

I have 2 beefs with OZL.

1. Owen Hegarty's retirement benefits. WTF!? I thought being granted options X amount of time ago was the benefit. This is to encourage the performance relative to the SP. Now it seems that the options being granted to CEO's, MDs, Directors etc are only acceptable remuneration if the SP goes up. If it doesnt then we (the company) now pay them out cash instead retrospectively as they 'deserve' it as the options value are not reflective of their performance due to market movements. No im sorry, they deserve their options which is what agreement they took, and usually quite eagerly too as they genereally (especially in the previous bull market) were being given quite generous option arrangements to the detriment of us ordinary shareholders as it diluted the crap out of the SP. My shares were not worth much due to the same market movements. And anyway - how can they just do this (pay him out like that). It was clear from the previous AGM that shareholders were not happy with the Golden Handshake.

2. Just playing devils advocate here, and im not saying this will happen, but guys lets open our narrow eyes a bit. Despite what some on this thread have been ramping on about in the last few days about '3rd biggest miner so can't go wrong', well..... they are wrong. This SP could go to crap. The value of many of their assets has probably dropped significantly along with the commodities price (eg Zinc). About the only thing OZL has got good for it is its cash reserves which it probably should be using as a share buyback or (as many shareholders obviously wanted) - a fat dividend (look at ZFX SP dive after it cut its in half as people sold off, sure zinc price played a part but I think the SP took a dive before zinc started to drop from memory). But in their inifinite wisdom they decided against this as they want to use the cash and general market conditions to fund aqusitions on the cheap. They are cheap for a reason now. If world growth conitnues to slump and commodities are affected (I hope not) then OZL might find itself buying assets that continue to drop in value - a bit like buying OZL each time it drops to average out - except the average keeps going down. Diversification is fine but there comes a time when you need to focus on your core competencies and get that right. Sooner or later this could be called mismanagement.


----------



## nioka

oldblue said:


> I've been doing some more thinking about these preopen trades at "unreal" prices and have come to the conclusion that they must represent the exercising of put options that were written several months ago. The fact that they are at the same or very similar prices, but reported over a period of time would be consistent with that.
> I'm not familiar with how such trades are recorded but it would make sense for them to be shown separately from the day's trading. Perhaps someone could throw some light on this?
> Incidentally, I can recall a broker friend of mine telling me a couple of years ago that OXR was one of the most heavily traded options stocks after such favourites as BHP and RIO.



I agree with you there. There can be no other reason for trades at almost twice the trading price. The problem is that once bought they may then have to be resold at the current price adding to the decline in price.

 Another3,238,322 today for $9,227,103, an average of $2.85.


----------



## Nicks

nioka said:


> I agree with you there. There can be no other reason for trades at almost twice the trading price. The problem is that once bought they may then have to be resold at the current price adding to the decline in price.
> 
> Another3,238,322 today for $9,227,103, an average of $2.85.




Bingo. If they are obliged due to the option, then as soon as purchased they may already be under fniancial pressure to offload. All this contributing the the spiral downward.

I guess this is another fine example of complex trading instruments that are not flawless and can at times contribute to an ineffective market.


----------



## Grinder

For what it's worth. Got a mate who who knows a guy who works for em.... you know how it goes. Tells me the management practices leave alot to be desired & that apparently they still have'nt built the processing plant at the mine he works at, thousands of tons of ore to be processed sitting on the ground waiting.... but hey, who doesn't complain about their workplce


----------



## lienad

Poster from hotcopper



Here are my estimates on five of the projects based on recorded reserves (not resources) of a single metal.
the price for zinc is 77c I have used 70 cents
the price for copper is $3.10 I have used $2.50
the price for gold is $778 I have used $750
Rosebery zinc AUD$ 0.14
Century zinc AUD$0.26
Golden Grove zinc AUD $0.13
Sepon copper AUD$0.79
Sepon gold AUD$0.01
Cash AUD$0.36
TOTAL $1.69
As you can see this figure does not include Prominent Hill or Avebury. Prominent Hill could easily add another $1 to the valuation.
So what you have then is five projects of say more than 10, each being valued on the basis of a reserve and a single selected metal.
Eg golden grove has gold, silver, copper, zinc and lead.
Only Golden Grove’s reserves of zinc were looked at.
If resources were used the amount of metal might be twice as big even four times as big.
The reason I didn’t use the resource figure is because I wanted to make the most conservative estimate possible to show the least value possible and what you could be most definitely be assured of getting.

How the figures were derived

All investments are valued on the basis of earnings going forward.
Each project is valued on the basis of reserves which are then discounted.
Profit is worked out by making an estimate for the long term price of the metal minus the cost of producing the metal in each project.
OZL has released the following figures
Rosebury (zinc) US$0.27/lb
Century zinc (incl. pre strip) US$0.63/lb
Golden Grove zinc US$0.39/lb
Sepon copper US$0.95/lb
Sepon gold US$537/oz

http://www.ozminerals.com/Media/doc...on-cd2b129c-44b1-46a1-8bd5-45fc9b6973a9-0.pdf

The profit is then multiplied by the discounted quantity of the reserve.

Here are two examples of how the calculations were derived at Sepon copper and Century zinc

Sepon Copper

copper

Reserves : .79 Mt
790,000 tonnes
1 tonne = 2204 lbs
1,741,160,000 lbs
discount 10% = 174,116,000
quantity = 1,567,044,000lbs


spot price US$ 3.18

long term price US $ 2.50
cost $0.95
profit $1.55

1.55 x 1,567,044,000 = $2,248,918,200
10% goes to Lao Government
$224,289,182

$2,204,629,018
no of shares 3,261,092,506
US$0.68
Convert to AUD (US$0.85)
1.17 x .68 = AUD$ 0.79

Century zinc
46.2 tonnes x 11.2% = 5.1744
1 tonne = 2204
11,404,437,760

10% discounted 
-1,140,437,760
10,263,939,840 lbs

long term price for zinc = 70 cents
cost = 63 cents
profit = 7 cents

total profit = $718,475,788
no of shares = 3,261,092,506
per share = US$ 0.22
US$0.85/ AUD$ 1
AUD $ 0.26


Cash
Cash = $1,173.5
No of shares = 3,261,092,506
Cash per share = AUD $.36

You could get even bigger numbers if you based the calculations on resources. Resources are often twice as big as reserves. Sometimes four times the number.
Pro forma OZ Minerals Group Reserves 1*
OZ Minerals
Zinc (Kt) 6,235.0
Copper (Kt) 1,878.0
Gold (Moz) 4.3
Silver (Moz) 103.4
Nickel (Kt) 56.1
Lead (Kt) 696.4

Pro forma OZ Minerals Group Resources 1,2*
OZ Minerals
Zinc (Kt) 17,807.6
Copper (Kt) 4,815.7
Gold (Moz) 16.0
Silver (Moz) 407.8
Nickel (Kt) 792.0
Lead (Kt) 2,599.1
Cobalt (Kt) 47.0


----------



## noco

Has anyone taken note that the CEO (Andrew Michelmore) has this week purchsed 60,000 shares @ $1.50 per share?

He obviously must have some faith in the future of OZL to have invested such an amount.

Does anybody agree?


----------



## michael_selway

noco said:


> Has anyone taken note that the CEO (Andrew Michelmore) has this week purchsed 60,000 shares @ $1.50 per share?
> 
> He obviously must have some faith in the future of OZL to have invested such an amount.
> 
> Does anybody agree?




Hm techincally its still goign down though, so it maybe risky to jump in?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 18.8 10.8 25.4 29.1 
DPS 8.0 9.5 10.0 10.0 *



> Date: 22/8/2008
> Author: Barry FitzGerald
> Source: The Age --- Page: B3
> Shares in Australian-listed OZ Minerals fell sharply on 21 August 2008, afterthe group released the interim profit results of Zinifex. Zinifex - which mergedwith Oxiana to form OZ Minerals earlier in 2008 - made a loss of $A1.4m for thefirst half of 2008, while the value of Tasmania's Avebury nickel mine andtenements in Canada were written down by $A602m. Meanwhile, Oxiana has posted anunderlying profit of $A72.3m for the half-year, down from $A178.9m previously.OZ Minerals shareholders will receive an unfranked dividend of $A0.05 per share.Its stock eased $A0.145 to $A1.685 on 21 August
> 
> Date: 22/8/2008
> Author: Michael Vaughan
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 56
> OZ Minerals revealed a $A500,00 loss for the six months to June on 21 August2008. The Australian mining company announced underlying net profit excludingdiscontinued operations, asset valuation changes and other one-off charges of$A70.9 million, while EBITA reached $A332.5 million. CEO, Andrew Michelmore,said the result was not indicative of the newly merged company'sperformance and was affected by the July 2008 integration of Zinifex and Oxiana
> 
> Date: 22/8/2008
> Author: Sarah-Jane Tasker
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 32
> OZ Minerals reported a $A543 million loss for the six months to June on 21August 2008. CEO, Michael Michelmore, said the company had abandoned plans toundertake a share buyback and had decided to instead focus on "a number oftangible opportunities". Shares in the Australian miner fell 7.92 per centto $A1.68 on the news, although the results did not represent the consolidatedaccounts of Zinifex and Oxiana


----------



## Ken

Before buying OZL worth considering whether out of all the trades in the last 12 months... Are you good enough to pick the absolute bottom of the stock??

chances are you are not.

better places to be than OZL.

BHP or RIO i would have thought is a better risk reward, and above that OZL and sentiment is negative to this stock.


----------



## Spineli

Was this guy right in selling and covering his losses?

Shorters thrive on behavioral trading like this. They continue shorting till they scare enough people into selling their stocks and taking losses. 

Someone said above that a newbie would still be holding. I disagree in part. Yes, while a newbie may hope for the price to rebound (and take larger losses in the meantime), a value investor who invests on a medium to long term basis would not be receptive to mild price movements in the downward direction, but will be likely to consolidate. As such if more value investors existed in a stock and less 'easily frightened investors (gamblers/newbies)' existed, shorters would have a hard time making money in that particular stock, as they would have trouble covering their shorts.


----------



## nioka

Ken said:


> Before buying OZL worth considering whether out of all the trades in the last 12 months... Are you good enough to pick the absolute bottom of the stock??
> 
> chances are you are not.
> 
> better places to be than OZL..




 You don't have to pick the absolute bottom to make a good buy. It is better if you can but we are only that smart with hindsight. The most important thing is to get value. If I decide there is value, (and I made this decision on OZL) then I will buy. Too many times over the years I have missed out on a good buy by trying to buy at the absolute bottom.

 Maybe there are better places to be than OZL but there are many worse ones also.


----------



## Ken

I believe the problem is that the value for OZL changes as there are so many variables in this company.  

There was a fine line between ZFX being a postive cash flow company and a break even company.  Look at PEM and how the price of zinc falling has affected them.

ZFX bought AGM which is a nickell company, and look at the price of MRE and the price of nickel.

OZL has basically bought zinc, and nickel, which has falling, and if you go off the other one product producers you would have to think they are not making a profit.

And you only have to look at Newcrest mining, and that doesn't help the gold is at 12 month lows.

They might have prices hedged, but we all know that OXR and ZFX rose on the rising commodity prices, and now they are falling on them.

Looking at what people are making in the mines also you would have to think that wages are hurting the companies.

I am not saying OZL isn't cheap, but there are far more negatives than positives for OZL at the moment considering the aquisitions they have made which right now would have been cheaper if they weren't made.

AGM would be 20 cents, and ZFX would have been a lot cheaper than $9.

OXR shareholders I believe would have been better off not merging.... as zinc and nickel margins have been squeezed the hardest.

After losing money on BNB when brokers said it was good value at $10 I try and pay more respect to the chart now, because the chart knows more than me.

How well do you really understand OZL post mergers and aquisitions?


----------



## roland

The discussions on the right time to buy OZL is like almost every other stock and depends greatly on what you are trying to achieve with your purchase.

I am currently buying and am not too fussed with the current weakness. Actually I see the weakness as an investing opportunity.

If you are a trader and expect to gain quick profits, then any stock in a downward trend is going to be a bad choice. This probably makes up 95% of the market right now - including OZL.

Generally speaking, when a stock is in a downward trend, then almost any purchase is going to end up being a disappointment if you are wanting a quick return. Having said that, of course even if you are looking for purchasing for the longer term, then a downward trend would be equally disappointing.

There are many threads here on ASF regarding averaging down as being something we shouldn't do (apart from not buying in a downward trending stock) - so why am I buying???

Good question, and we each need to ask ourselves before buying any stock - "why am I buying"?

I am buying because:

- I believe that the stock is priced below where it should be
- I previously bought at a higher price and am now averaging down

I entered OZL at $1.98 some time back knowing full well that there was a strong chance of the SP falling back even further. I entered lightly and timed it for a dividend return, I have bought at every 5% drop and have also sold twice as the SP improves, so with the dividend and some profits I am only just a little behind.

The obvious problem with OZL are the global metals prices, I personally don't think that there is much wrong with the company. Some are blaming Zn, and/or the Zinifex merger bringing on a liability - but the merger also brought in a ton of cash in the bank as well - work out the interest on $1.2 Billion - got to be a good thing 

OZL will continue to be weak whilst metals prices are down, but we are multi faceted and set to benefit when one of our metals takes off.

Just my own thoughts here - just felt like practising my typing


----------



## nioka

Another preopen sale.1,323,285 for $4,111,793. One of these days I'll log on and not see any of these sales. That is when the price may stop it's disasterous fall. The buyers of these shares must be having nightmares and I would guess they are no longer fans of OZL. According to the preopen quotes we should open a little higher today.


----------



## tech/a

nioka said:


> Another preopen sale.1,323,285 for $4,111,793. One of these days I'll log on and not see any of these sales. That is when the price may stop it's disasterous fall. The buyers of these shares must be having nightmares and I would guess they are no longer fans of OZL. According to the preopen quotes we should open a little higher today.





Here is why.
Having a dabble myself today.
There is suggestion from other scources that capitulation has possibly occured in this down move.
VSA tends to confirm this.


----------



## nioka

tech/a said:


> Here is why.
> Having a dabble myself today.
> There is suggestion from other scources that capitulation has possibly occured in this down move.
> VSA tends to confirm this.




Very interesting post. Particularly when you look at those prices. There are large losses there for those that speculated at the prices quoted. As I said the buyers of those shares would no longer be fans of OZL. This has been going on daily for some time now.


----------



## tech/a

Personally I want confirmation that things are reversing so buy stop is $1.40.

Still looks weak from current trading.


----------



## oldblue

I actually received a further reply from the company to my email advising that there were 9 pre-opening transactions on 9 September at $2-25 for 65,000 shares approx.
Doesn't help much - big discrepancy in numbers.


----------



## PhoenixXx

> OZ Minerals shuts SA site after accident
> Thursday September 11, 2008, 11:30 am
> 
> OZ Minerals Ltd has temporarily shut down its Prominent Hill site in South Australia after an employee of a contracting firm engaged by the company was killed.
> 
> The worker died in a single light vehicle accident about 35 kilometres from the Prominent Hill gold and copper mine site.
> 
> The person was a construction supervisor working on the development of the borefield supplying water for the processing facilities some 45 kilometres from the mine.
> 
> OZ Minerals, which was recently formed from the merger of Zinifex and Oxiana, said police arrived at the site on Wednesday to investigations the accident.
> 
> "Worksafe SA has been notified and will be on site today to carry out their investigations," OZ Minerals said.
> 
> "Management will, of course, be cooperating fully with authorities in these investigations."
> 
> OZ Minerals said all activities on site have been shut down for half a day as a mark of respect.
> 
> "OZ Minerals senior management are on site to brief staff and conduct further accident investigations," it added.




Seems like Prominent Hills is shut today and hopefully the investigation will be over soon so they can resume their operations.


----------



## nioka

oldblue said:


> I actually received a further reply from the company to my email advising that there were 9 pre-opening transactions on 9 September at $2-25 for 65,000 shares approx.
> Doesn't help much - big discrepancy in numbers.



 The figures I quote are taken directly from my watchlist with Westpac when I log on each morning. Someone is having us on here. Can't see why the Westpac figures would not be correct.???????????????


----------



## oldblue

nioka said:


> The figures I quote are taken directly from my watchlist with Westpac when I log on each morning. Someone is having us on here. Can't see why the Westpac figures would not be correct.???????????????





And to further add to the puzzle, OZL have announced the price for upcoming dividend reinvestment plan as $1-4333 per share. This is the VWAP ( weighted average price) of shares sold between 4 and 10 September, less discount of 2.5%  I guess it is inflated by those " great prices" in preopen?
Disc: Pleased to say I don't reinvest my OZL divs!


----------



## tech/a

nioka said:


> The figures I quote are taken directly from my watchlist with Westpac when I log on each morning. Someone is having us on here. Can't see why the Westpac figures would not be correct.???????????????




No conspiricy these are exercised put options
some people are cleaning up!

*A put gives its owner the right, but not the obligation, to sell the stock at the strike price. But the seller of a put must buy the stock at the strike price whenever the put owner exercises. *


----------



## oldblue

tech/a said:


> No conspiricy these are exercised put options
> some people are cleaning up!
> 
> *A put gives its owner the right, but not the obligation, to sell the stock at the strike price. But the seller of a put must buy the stock at the strike price whenever the put owner exercises. *




Yes, we're aware of that. The point is that the preopen sales advised to me by the company for 9 September don't tally with nioka's Westpac figures.
Mind you, it could be just that OZL aren't aware of all the sales but why that would be is anyone's guess.


----------



## Mofra

oldblue said:


> Yes, we're aware of that. The point is that the preopen sales advised to me by the company for 9 September don't tally with nioka's Westpac figures.
> Mind you, it could be just that OZL aren't aware of all the sales but why that would be is anyone's guess.



As a possibility, if the shares are not held long enough to be recorded on the company register (ie held less than 3 working days from the trade date) would the company have information on them in the first place?


----------



## nioka

Mofra said:


> As a possibility, if the shares are not held long enough to be recorded on the company register (ie held less than 3 working days from the trade date) would the company have information on them in the first place?



That is a good point and would add to my theory that those buying can't afford to hold and are reselling at a loss. HOWEVER today is the 11th and they quote preopen sales for the 9th, only 2 days??? still the mystery lingers.


----------



## tech/a

Thought Id pop this up.

In VSA Volume Spread analysis this is a very strong signal un fortunately in this case its short!
Look for these Patterns both long and short on charts.
You'll be suprised at the results.
High volume in one direction
Followed by no demand (Trading in the opposite direction to the high volume previous bar) with the high at or very near the high of the previous high volume bar.
And a close at slightly before or past the previous high volume bars high or low.


----------



## Ken

looking at the price of gold OZL is just caught up in the selling.

I am only speculating put there will be some buyers of OZL that will make some fast dollars on a short term turn around.

I am not skillfull enough to pick when, but when short sellers cover there positions, this is when it has happened in my experience of watching falling stock....

What OZL and all mining companies want to see is a the US dollar give up some of its gains.... thus seeing gold bounce back...


----------



## Nyden

roland said:


> The discussions on the right time to buy OZL is like almost every other stock and depends greatly on what you are trying to achieve with your purchase.
> 
> I am currently buying and am not too fussed with the current weakness. Actually I see the weakness as an investing opportunity.
> 
> If you are a trader and expect to gain quick profits, then any stock in a downward trend is going to be a bad choice. This probably makes up 95% of the market right now - including OZL.
> 
> Generally speaking, when a stock is in a downward trend, then almost any purchase is going to end up being a disappointment if you are wanting a quick return. Having said that, of course even if you are looking for purchasing for the longer term, then a downward trend would be equally disappointing.
> 
> There are many threads here on ASF regarding averaging down as being something we shouldn't do (apart from not buying in a downward trending stock) - so why am I buying???
> 
> Good question, and we each need to ask ourselves before buying any stock - "why am I buying"?
> 
> I am buying because:
> 
> - I believe that the stock is priced below where it should be
> - I previously bought at a higher price and am now averaging down
> 
> I entered OZL at $1.98 some time back knowing full well that there was a strong chance of the SP falling back even further. I entered lightly and timed it for a dividend return, I have bought at every 5% drop and have also sold twice as the SP improves, so with the dividend and some profits I am only just a little behind.
> 
> The obvious problem with OZL are the global metals prices, I personally don't think that there is much wrong with the company. Some are blaming Zn, and/or the Zinifex merger bringing on a liability - but the merger also brought in a ton of cash in the bank as well - work out the interest on $1.2 Billion - got to be a good thing
> 
> OZL will continue to be weak whilst metals prices are down, but we are multi faceted and set to benefit when one of our metals takes off.
> 
> Just my own thoughts here - just felt like practising my typing




The danger in averaging down though Roland; is that you now hold a much larger position in a stock that is in a terrible downtrend, and could continue to fall much further. 

Averaging down only works if you're lucky enough to pick with a short-term (good) future, as well as if you have enough money to keep on buying more!

It's the same on the blackjack table, sure - just keep doubling your bet each time you lose ... works a treat 


 ... 

Are you going to keep buying if it continues to fall all the way down to $1? Don't say it couldn't happen either, heck - we've fallen over 6-7% a day for nearly a week! What if we don't get any sharp spikes upward for you to sell into, and it just keeps on falling? Commodities keep falling, AUD seems to have found support at 80c, gold is all but trashed ... I've said it once I'll say it again -I honestly see no upside.


----------



## tech/a

Why is it that most add to losing positions and rarely add to winning positions?

Your tying more and more money up in something which isnt having your money work for you.There is OPPORTUNITY cost.

Isnt it better to add to a position when analysis tells you it *IS* moving in the direction of your trade?


----------



## nioka

Another 1,083,248 shares for $3,102,406, an average of $2.86, on the preopen sales this morning. With a preopen quote of $1.29 that represents a loss of $1,551,083 if they are resold this morning at the preopen price.????????


----------



## roland

tech/a said:


> Why is it that most add to losing positions and rarely add to winning positions?
> 
> Your tying more and more money up in something which isnt having your money work for you.There is OPPORTUNITY cost.
> 
> Isnt it better to add to a position when analysis tells you it *IS* moving in the direction of your trade?




I sometimes have trouble understanding that myself. I guess it's a feeling of missing the boat to grab the lowest price - yes that's wrong. 

It maybe some stubborness about not wanting to lose and thinking that bringing down the average reduces the perceived loss.

It may be that some just can't help but to want to trade, or looking for that ellusive mega bounce.


----------



## oldblue

Yes, it's hard to think of a situation where averaging down works to the extent of beating an approach which waits for an upturn in the trend. One would have to be extremely lucky to buy at the bottom and I, for one, never seem to have had that luck!


----------



## LeeTV

OZL is a dirty word around my house


----------



## Nicks

tech/a said:


> Why is it that most add to losing positions and rarely add to winning positions?
> 
> Your tying more and more money up in something which isnt having your money work for you.There is OPPORTUNITY cost.
> 
> Isnt it better to add to a position when analysis tells you it *IS* moving in the direction of your trade?




Yep. I hated selling my OZL at 1.82. Lost lots of money on it. Thought it was fair value at that price and was tempted to hold or buy more as it went down.

Well what can I say, having been around trading for a while now I have learnt the hard way, and learnt from others and the market. Seems I am now the wiser.

OZL is potentially worth even less than it is now, with low mine life and falling commodites prices, its only so long that it can uise along simply by the amount of cash they have in the bank (which will be getting chewed up quick dont you worry).

.... and I am still annoyed at how they tried shafting shareholders too look after Owen Hegarty - who is leaving the company. You take options on the understanding of what they are. You cant have it both ways.


----------



## subi1

Nicks

Interesting post.

What mine life do they have left on the mines they have?
1. Sepon
2. Golden Grove
3. Prominent Hill
4. Martabe
5. Century
6  Rosebury

and of course any of their other mines you may have researched.

Thanks in advance


----------



## stargazer

Hi all

Interesting what happens when the experts tip a buy.  In the Adelaide (Sunday Mail  page 77)  OZL is a buy according to Michael Zollo.  

My observation has been when it has been indicated as a buy the price has gone down.  eg BPT buy 1.39 about 5 weeks ago.

Cheers
SG


----------



## nioka

The preopen buys/sells continue today but at lower volume than for the past few days, 538,978 for $1,767,429, an average of $3.28. The indicative opening price now shown at $1.365.


----------



## nioka

Good signs for OZL today with volume trading resulting in good gains on a market with the majority of stocks in the red. Maybe the bottom has been reached. At least it has made me happy with the trading choices made in the last few days.


----------



## oldblue

Probably a result of the company reporting today that it is buying shares on market re the DRP and employee share schemes.


----------



## nioka

Preopen sales of 311,721 shares for $1,053,630 today. A reduced number to that we have seen lately. An average of $3.38. If these sales keep tapering off there may be an improvement in the SP for OZL even on a bad market. The timing is bad for me as I traded my OZL for an increased number of MCR yesterday, hoping to trade back today. Today I need MCR to advance and OZL to retreat.


----------



## gxshen

Positive news!!!!
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/1883033/

The acutal value of OZL should be 3.8 to 4.4 according to the recent annoucement, which was valued by some independent experts.


----------



## oldblue

gxshen said:


> Positive news!!!!
> http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/1883033/
> 
> The acutal value of OZL should be 3.8 to 4.4 according to the recent annoucement, which was valued by some independent experts.




That was back in May, from memory.

A lot of water has gone under the bridge since then - and a lot of it was pretty dirty!


----------



## nioka

The number of preopen trades are reducing. Today 249615 for $812,133, an average of $3.25. What this will mean for the share price when these trades cease is open to speculation.


----------



## nioka

An increase in the number of preopen trades today. 1,093,738 for $3,059,308, an average of approx $2.80.Interest in the stock from buyers continues and why not at these prices.


----------



## roland

OZL's announcement today with the pullback on Zn production in favour of Cu highlights the advantage of being diversified and dynamic enough to shift the focus of operations.

If Zinifex by itself had of announced the same, then we all know where Zinifex's SP would be today.


----------



## copnit

The one bright spot in my portfolio has been the non capitulation of OZL in the last few days. Given the falls in base metals, do people think this is a strong support level for OZL? Thanks


----------



## nioka

Today's preopen trading; 1,135,776 for $3,868,387 an average price of $3.40 per share. This must be getting expensive for a lot of people by now. Good to see the price holding and getting away from the low. The indicative price suggests a further rise today.


----------



## Ashsaege

With OZL reducing it's Zinc and increasing it's Copper would this have several positive effects?

Reducing the production of zinc, would mean less supply of zinc, which would hopefully improve prices (would it make a tiny impact at all?)? which would then make OZL's left over zinc operations more profitable.

And with Copper being very profitable in the current market, an increase in supply may have a negative effect on copper prices, but it would still be very profitable.


----------



## oldblue

All of the above, in theory, but I suspect only a marginal effect in practice. There have been a few other zinc closures/reductions recently so cumulatively supply must be starting to contract somewhat.



Disc: Holding OZL and interested in more at these prices.


----------



## J.B.Nimble

Ashsaege said:


> With OZL reducing it's Zinc and increasing it's Copper would this have several positive effects?
> 
> Reducing the production of zinc, would mean less supply of zinc, which would hopefully improve prices (would it make a tiny impact at all?)? which would then make OZL's left over zinc operations more profitable.
> 
> And with Copper being very profitable in the current market, an increase in supply may have a negative effect on copper prices, but it would still be very profitable.




Global zinc production is around 10.5 to 11 million T per year so 50,000 T is 0.5%. Not big by itself but with a fair number of closures and output reductions reported, the oversupply is correcting.

Copper - USGS figures report copper output grew from 15.1 mill T (2006) to 15.6 mill T(2007). Interesting to see where it goes next -  BHP have reported that Escondida is heading in to lower grade ores and expect a 15% fall in output from the mine that represents 10% of world production. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a4ZbwPmmlCok&refer=australia
On the other hand we have PNA's PhuKham just on line with an initial 50,000 T/yr output, OZL's Prominent Hill starting up for 110,000 T/yr output, and there will be others... I expect the credit crisis is going to bite pretty hard in the construction industry and this will hurt copper demand. Offsetting that will be accelerated investment in alternative (electric) energy as response to price of oil/peak oil realities. 

My pick is that the nett effect of supply and demand factors will be a softening in price for a couple of years but hopefully nothing like the rapid slide we saw in zinc. Longer term outlook feels good. In the short term this seems a sensible response from OZL.


----------



## booboo

nioka said:


> Today's preopen trading; 1,135,776 for $3,868,387 an average price of $3.40 per share. This must be getting expensive for a lot of people by now. Good to see the price holding and getting away from the low. The indicative price suggests a further rise today.




These preopen trades are puts being exercised overnight, has happened to me 3 times this month now. I had sold Oct 08 $2.50 puts that were ex'ed early. 

Only happens to me with OZL, my LGL options go through to expiry. Low income this month so far, see what happens on Monday with Naked short ban, should finally see some upside.

Chris Locke from Oystertrade called this the end of the bear(SP500 hit 50% Fib and bounced.. HARD!) I like Chris Locke!


----------



## nioka

Todays preopen trades. 558,720 for $1,661,779. This is still costing traders a lot of money. With the SP rising I hope that it is costing those short selling the stock the same amount. Now that selling short has been shown to be the scourge that it is can I suggest that we should see the SP return to a price more related to the fundamental value. OZL needs long term investors not short term traders.


----------



## noco

nioka said:


> Todays preopen trades. 558,720 for $1,661,779. This is still costing traders a lot of money. With the SP rising I hope that it is costing those short selling the stock the same amount. Now that selling short has been shown to be the scourge that it is can I suggest that we should see the SP return to a price more related to the fundamental value. OZL needs long term investors not short term traders.




Correct me if I am wrong nioka, but I thought I heard short selling has been banned from today or was that only in the USA?


----------



## oldblue

These pre-open trades are likely to be put options being exercised.

However, as far as previous short trades are concerned we assume that they  will have to be covered at some stage and the way the market is moving this is likely to be expensive.


----------



## LeeTV

noco said:


> Correct me if I am wrong nioka, but I thought I heard short selling has been banned from today or was that only in the USA?



Yep banned for 30 days then to be reviewed.

ASIC restrict short selling with immediate effect from 22 Sep 2008

The Australian Securities and Investment Commission has made the following decisions to apply from the opening of the market on Monday, 22 September 2008:

1. Naked short selling banned
2. Covered short selling banned (subject to limited authorised market-maker exemption)
3. ASIC will reassess and advise the market in 30 days, whether or not it will at that time, or at a later date, reopen covered short sales for non-financial stocks.

ASX will implement the changes by removing all stocks from the permitted list of naked short sales.

Impact on CommSec customers:
In order to support the new regulations and return confidence to the financial markets, CommSec has made the following changes effective immediately
- Day Short Selling - No new orders will be accepted.
- Term Short Selling – No new orders will be accepted. Clients with open positions can still close out existing positions.
- ASX CFDs – No new “sell to open” orders will be accepted. Clients with open positions can still close out existing positions.
- OTC CFDs - No new “sell to open” orders will be accepted. Clients with open positions can still close out existing positions.

As ASIC and the ASX release more information regarding the changes to Short Selling we will post additional updates on the website to keep CommSec customers informed.

For further information regarding the ASIC guidelines on short selling please refer to the ASIC website (asic.gov.au)


----------



## nioka

Preopen trades are starting to fall and the SP seems to be rising, might be the start of a good time for investors. 34,737 for $167,280 today, an average price of $4.82, now that is a price I would like to obtain for mine.


----------



## michael_selway

nioka said:


> Preopen trades are starting to fall and the SP seems to be rising, might be the start of a good time for investors. 34,737 for $167,280 today, an average price of $4.82, now that is a price I would like to obtain for mine.




Hm, the thing is price of zinc and copepr in the future, hard to predict atm

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 18.8 10.2 24.0 26.3 
DPS 8.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 *




> Date: 19/9/2008
> Author: Matt Chambers
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 23
> Australian-listed resources group OZ Minerals has switched its focus to itscopper assets, as the global price of zinc declines. As a result, output of thelatter metal will be scaled back by 50,000 tonnes of concentrate in 2009 at theGolden Grove mine in Western Australia, while copper production is to be raisedby 14,000 tonnes. This translates to a reduction by $US85m and boost of $US95mrespectively. The zinc price has fallen by about $US1.25 to $US0.75 between late2006 and September 2008
> 
> Date: 19/9/2008
> Author: Jo Clarke
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 57
> OZ Minerals is focusing on copper at its Golden Grove mine in September 2008following a 60% decline in the price of zinc in two years. Zinc is in oversupplydue to the high cost of shutting down smelters. Despite the short-term shift, OZMinerals is planning projects to meet forecasts of improved demand for zinc in2012


----------



## nioka

Preopen trades today are 65,737 for $263,880 an average of $4. This is an increase on yesterdays  numbers but still below recent numbers traded preopen.


----------



## oldblue

nioka said:


> Preopen trades today are 65,737 for $263,880 an average of $4. This is an increase on yesterdays  numbers but still below recent numbers traded preopen.




Still a few put options to be exercised at attractive prices?

Would think these should be expiring fairly soon. The " big price " ones, that is!


----------



## agro

announcement out now - prominent hill increases its resource base

not sure if that will have a massive on the share price


----------



## bigdog

Details of ANN
24/09/2008  Prominent Hill Increase in Resource Base 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00883081

Following on from its 3 July 2008 announcement regarding the potential for the discovery of an additional deposit at Prominent Hill, OZ Minerals announces an increase in its global resource base for the project.

In terms of contained copper and gold, the global copper inventory has increased by 35% to 2.5 million tonnes, gold by 100% to 7.4 million ounces and silver by 43% to 22.6 million ounces.

The Prominent Hill deposit remains open in most directions, and intensive drilling continues to extend known mineralisation and discover new zones, such as the western copper deposit, approximately 1 kilometre to the west of the open pit. Recent results from this area, which are not included in the resource estimates shown below, include:
• 51.0 metres at 3.45% copper and 0.33 grams per tonne of gold
• 64.9 metres of 2.45% copper and 0.67 grams per tonne of gold.

As highlighted in the following tables, the updated resource estimates based on extensive additional drilling completed in the last year represent a substantial increase over the previously published resource estimates. Resource confidence has also increased with a significant rise in the higher confidence indicated resource category. 

The attached Prominent Hill Resource - Long Projection shows the 2008 Resource outlines for Measured, Indicated and Inferred Resources and diagrammatically illustrates the changes that have occurred since release of the previous (2007) Resource Statement.

A full breakdown of the resources and the detailed resource statement and explanatory notes are available on the OZ Minerals website at www.ozminerals.com


----------



## eddyeagle

This was in today's AIR email. 


Oz Minerals says it can can finance its future development projects without having to access financial markets and it has apologised for the poor performance on the company's shares since the merged company started trading on July 1. 
"We have a strong balance sheet, no net borrowings and the ability to generate healthy cash flows," Oz Minerals chairman, Barry Cusack and CEO Andrew Michelmore said in the letter to shareholders. 
"At a time when the world's financial system is in so much turmoil, this is an enviable position to be in." 
"We have a very strong pipeline of growth projects stretching out over the next decade, and we have the financial capability to finance the pipeline without being beholden to the financial markets. 
"The outlook for demand for all the commodities we produce remains strong and, although there will be some volatility from one period to the next, we are very confident of ongoing growth in demand for many basic commodities," shareholders were told. 
The company is in the process of completing the $1 billion-plus first sage of the Prominent Hill multi-metal mine in South Australia. It is due to come on stream in the next few weeks. 
There are expansion plans for it and for the Golden Grove mine in Western Australia, as well as new gold and copper mining projects offshore, principally in Laos. 
Referring to the share price, which "has fallen substantially in recent months", Messrs Cusack and Michelmore said that investors must keep in mind the company's achievements and opportunities. 


"OZ Minerals’ share price has fallen substantially in recent months. 
“While part of the fall can be explained by general share market conditions, lower metal prices and higher costs, our share price performance has been worse than would have been predicted by these external factors alone. 
"We understand that some aspects of our financial results have concerned some investors, but we also believe that many investors have lost sight of OZ Minerals’ substantial achievements and its undoubted opportunities." 
"We are very aware that OZ Minerals’ recent share price weakness has had a devastating effect on many of our shareholders. We remind shareholders that the indicated valuation of $3.80 -$4.40 per share determined by Grant Samuel & Associates in May 2008 is substantially higher than the current share price. 
"We can assure shareholders that nothing detrimental has happened to those assets over the past 4 months and we implore you not to lose sight of this fact." 
"Whilst the current global economic uncertainties have prompted some investors, including hedge funds, to exit their commodity and basic materials share investments, we have recently seen a number of major, long-term investing institutions take up positions in OZ Minerals," they said in the statement. 
"Operationally, OZ Minerals is performing very well; production levels are in line with our plans, and the integration of the old Oxiana and Zinifex businesses is on track. 
“As we have announced, we have already identified almost $30 million of annual cost savings through the integration process, and we are confident there is more to come. 
"Your Board and Management are working diligently to integrate the policies, procedures and systems capturing the best of both entities. We are also assessing the combined programs for exploration and growth to align with our strategic objectives." 
OZ Minerals shares gained 10.5 cents, or 6.5% to $1.705 in a market that was off 2% or more yesterday. Firmer metal prices helped as copper and zinc rose and the US dollar fell.


----------



## milky

A complicated result with OZL reporting statutory accounts for Oxiana for six months ended June, Zinifex for the year ended June and proforma for the combined group for 1H08. The headline proforma loss was $432.4m. The result included non recurring after tax asset writedowns of $667m, post tax merger costs of $37.4m and a $201.1m deferred tax liability reversal. Asset writedowns reflect provisional merger accounting based on the share price at the time of the transaction. Management does not believe the outlook has changed or that the assets are impaired. Adjusted proforma NPAT was $70.9m. Oxiana adjusted 1H08 NPAT was $72.2m versus $185.6 in 1H07. Zinifex adjusted FY08 NPAT fell 73% to $226.7m. Zinifex recorded a net loss of $1.4m for six months to June.

Business Impact: The result was disappointing with proforma NPAT falling well short of our $157.6m forecast. Costs, depreciation and tax were all higher than expected. Cost pressures were worst in fuel, power, transport, labour and for inputs like acid. We reduce our group OZL FY08 NPAT forecast from $406.6m to $206.2m after the poor first half. We raise near term cost and depreciation estimates. It’s unlikely Prominent Hill will contribute in 2008. Our FY09 NPAT forecast falls from $1.0bn to $772.8m with higher costs. We also conservatively reduce expected Prominent Hill output to 95,000t of copper and 69,000oz of gold at a higher cost, compared to previous guidance of 110-120,000t and 79,000oz. Assumptions remain US$3.50/lb copper, US$1.05/lb zinc and A$/US$ FX of 0.95


----------



## nioka

Anyone chosing to go along with the dividend reinvestment plan will recieve shares based on a price of $1.433c. At todays price of $1.765 that is already a reasonable profit. With the widening gap between MCR and OZL I think it is time for me to tradeback again to MCR I traded too early with the first half but will trade the balance now and hope MCR can catch up so I can trade back again to OZL. At todays prices an OZL share will buy 1.3 MCR shares.


----------



## nioka

Another preopen trade of 204,229 for $649,485 today, an averagr of $3.48. Still looks like speculators getting their fingers burnt.


----------



## fordxbt

still performed well today
the short banning has helped me here - im used to going short on OZL but now the long trades are putting out (but not nearly as much!)


----------



## ozambersand

nioka said:


> Another preopen trade of 204,229 for $649,485 today, an averagr of $3.48. Still looks like speculators getting their fingers burnt.



Not sure if you are referring to the trades that occurred around 7.00am. As I unerstand it, they were EP trades i.e. Exercising Puts they had taken out when the stock prices were these values. Hence the higher they were when they took them out, the more money they make when they fall.
A large number of EP's at the start of the day usually signifies that traders who held them anticipate that the stock will not go any lower before they are due to exercise the options (think that's the term) as they expect the price to go up.
Similarly when pre-trades are EC (exercising call's) the holders usually expect the price will fall from that point.
While the OZL price may never have been $5.32 (the highest price in yesterday's pre-market put sale), Zinifex's prices around the $20 mark converts to over $6 so I am presuming they had put options on Zinifex and converted them to OZL at the take-over.
Hopefully I have this right and am happy to be corrected if wrong. 
I am interested in knowing how long put and call options can last for as put and call warrant prices are very much tied to their length before expiry.


----------



## roland

Well, OZL looked pretty good this morning with a run up to $1.935 - thought about selling a few. Then BLAM! down to $1.80, if it falls much lower I guess my sell order will be a buy order - bummer


----------



## oldblue

Hi oz.
That's pretty much as I read it.
It's a long time since I took much interest in writing options but I think from memory that they can go out as far as 6 months. Happy to be corrected on this.


----------



## nioka

Today's figures for preopen trades are 58,386 for $184,736, an average of $3.335. Numbers are decling, daily indicitave price is rising.


----------



## ozambersand

> Today's figures for preopen trades are 58,386 for $184,736, an average of $3.335.



Once again they were EP (exercising PUTS) so it may indicate that those with put options think it won't go much lower. Which I suppose is a good sign! Got a letter from them today saying:


> "We are very aware that OZ Minerals recent share price weakness has had a devastating effect on many of our shareholders. We remind shareholders that the indicated valuation of $3.80-$4.40 per share determines by Grant Samuels & Associates in May 2008 is substantially higher than the current share price. We can assure shareholders that nothing detrimental has happened to those assets over the past 4months and we implore you not to lose sight of this fact."


----------



## oldblue

Not too keen on companies using emotive words like " implore" - only goes to stoke the uncertainty - but I take their point.


----------



## ozambersand

oldblue said:


> Not too keen on companies using emotive words like " implore" - only goes to stoke the uncertainty - but I take their point.



I had similar thoughts. I presume they would be worried if their price goes too low, someone might buy them up? That's if anyone has any money!


----------



## deadset

I remember buying ZFX for around $9-10 with a 10% dividend, that rapidly dropped before the merger, then after the merger the stock kept rapidly dropping quickly to $2 now $1.50 with an 8c dividend.

This has been a bad investment.  Somebody must think their earning power has rapidly diminished.

I actually thought the merger was a good deal for both companies.

Luckily I never put more than $4-6000 on these type of companies, as its lost over 50% in a very short time.  Still $2-3000 and rising is alot to lose.

I'll spare the name calling.  I'll be paying more attention to the actual metal prices for these stocks, but even then the share price has fallen worse than that.

Lesson 1 Learned : If its mining and it ain't BHP or RIO or ain't something to do with either Iron Ore, Coal or Gold (and even then) presume it to be risky unless proven otherwise.

Lesson 2 Learned : Don't buy stock that you aren't prepared to heavily research or cover when needed.  (almost like the rule, Don't sleep with anyone you aren't prepared to marry)

Lesson 3 Learned : If you buy stock on a company that you don't know many details on, prepare to lose money.

The market has seen this merger in a negative way as if 2 failing companies are simply merging to survive before failure rather than to leverage mutual benefits.  Hopefully they can turn that perception and the balance sheet around.


----------



## YELNATS

oldblue said:


> Not too keen on companies using emotive words like " implore" - only goes to stoke the uncertainty - but I take their point.




Yes, "implore" was a bit over the top, "urge" would have been a better choice and would have conveyed the same strong message.

On the positive side at least they show concern for their shareholders and much of the slide in value has been beyond their control.

Long term they should still be a good performer and the recent DRP dividend assigment of a larger number of extra shares is welcome.


----------



## deadset

I think we basically need to see what their earning power is before the price will go up beyond simply tracking changes in metal prices.


----------



## nioka

deadset said:


> I think we basically need to see what their earning power is before the price will go up beyond simply tracking changes in metal prices.



We have not been kept up to date on the progress of the exAGM nickel mine and it's contribution to the company. It should be making a useful contribution by now.


----------



## YELNATS

nioka said:


> We have not been kept up to date on the progress of the exAGM nickel mine and it's contribution to the company. It should be making a useful contribution by now.




As per OZL's September 23 letter to shareholders,

Quote:
.... we are delighted with the development of our projects, and we want to remind shareholders of progress to date.
· The Avebury nickel mine in Tasmania has been commissioned and shipped its first nickel concentrate to Jinchuan, our customer, in August this year – right on schedule! We are ramping-up production at Avebury, and we expect nickel to contribute 5% of the Company’s revenues in 2009.
Unquote


----------



## roland

Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.

OZL -34.90%


----------



## oldblue

roland said:


> Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.
> 
> OZL -34.90%




It's not working, roland.

Some of my losses bear an uncanny resemblance to yours!
eg. BPT/OZL..............


----------



## gav

Roland, maybe this will make u feel better....

My FMG average buy price is 8.62.  Down over 60% 

Whats worse, at one stage I was up over 40%!


----------



## roland

oldblue said:


> It's not working, roland.
> 
> Some of my losses bear an uncanny resemblance to yours!
> eg. BPT/OZL..............




at least we both know that we are in good company - I decided not to list my worst one - BBP


----------



## Nyden

Really sorry to hear about that guys  I at least hope you sold a few days ago, and haven't been around for all the current rippings?

 ... sorry to rub salt in the wounds, but I've had no losses for a year :


----------



## subaru69

In regard to the above posts... some of mine are better (ie not as bad) but some are worse.  The only way I can describe what I feel is happening is through a visual means, interpret it as you like.


----------



## nioka

I have been in and out of OZL. I now hold no OZL. I trade between MCR and OZL and traded my last OZL at the ratio of 1.4 MCR for 1 OZL. It is interesting to compare the charts for these. I bought my original OZL by buying 1.1 OZL for 1 MCR. Suggest OZL holders check this angle out. It is one way to stay ahead in this volatile market.


----------



## hardcoremike

Hey. I've read about alternating trades between some other company and am abit confused. Can you explain to me why you do it?
Cheers.


----------



## Georgeb

OZL is worth more. 

The shares are not being valued on the basis of earnings but fear.

It is all sentiment


Currently the cash is worth 38 cents of the 98 cents or about 38% of the share price

The mines must be worth 60 cents or about $2 bn

on the books all mines and the equipment is probably worth about $1.29

equity – the cash = A$4219m
number of shares = 3,261,092,506
$1.29

so they put a fortune into these mines 
about $4bn and all they have to show for it is 98 cents on the stockmarket

should be about $1.67 minimum on cash and equipment

the reserves are worth at least $1.52

based on long term price assumptions

nickel $8
gold=$700
copper = $2.50
zinc = .70

resources worth may be $7.50

so the company has invested about $1.29 in mining equipment and has about .38 in cash

for a bear minimum return of $1.52 and anything up to $7

and it is selling for $1


----------



## Nyden

Georgeb said:


> OZL is worth more.
> 
> The shares are not being valued on the basis of earnings but fear.
> 
> It is all sentiment
> 
> 
> Currently the cash is worth 38 cents of the 98 cents or about 38% of the share price
> 
> The mines must be worth 60 cents or about $2 bn
> 
> on the books all mines and the equipment is probably worth about $1.29
> 
> equity – the cash = A$4219m
> number of shares = 3,261,092,506
> $1.29
> 
> so they put a fortune into these mines
> about $4bn and all they have to show for it is 98 cents on the stockmarket
> 
> should be about $1.67 minimum on cash and equipment
> 
> the reserves are worth at least $1.52
> 
> based on long term price assumptions
> 
> nickel $8
> gold=$700
> copper = $2.50
> zinc = .70
> 
> resources worth may be $7.50
> 
> so the company has invested about $1.29 in mining equipment and has about .38 in cash
> 
> for a bear minimum return of $1.52 and anything up to $7
> 
> and it is selling for $1





Sorry, but you're simply wrong. You cannot make long-term price assumptions right now. Commodities could very well have a whole lot further to fall (if and when our savior China crashes as well), and the current price of base metals right now could be something of a distant memory ... for quite a while. If the world goes into a long global recession, do you honestly believe commodity prices have already factored in the worst?

The current SP is based on sentiment, yes - sentiment for a terrible future, which may just come to pass. It's easy enough to say that yes, in 10 years time this could be a fantastic stock - but anything could happen in those 10 years. 

The current prices and outlook in base metals completely justifies the current price, imo.


----------



## treefrog

Georgeb said:


> OZL is worth more.
> ..........
> Currently the cash is worth 38 cents of the 98 cents or about 38% of the share price
> The mines must be worth 60 cents or about $2 bn
> on the books all mines and the equipment is probably worth about $1.29
> so they put a fortune into these mines
> about $4bn and all they have to show for it is 98 cents on the stockmarket
> should be about $1.67 minimum on cash and equipment
> the reserves are worth at least $1.52




check this out as to why it just ain't so...........
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=47099
"This uncertainty has led to a plunge in mining stocks, many of which have lost 80 per cent or more of their value and are now "trading at the cash on their books," said Andrew Martyn, a vice-president at Toronto-based investment counsel Davis-Rea Ltd.
"Making the assumption that they don't continue to spend major portions of capital on mine expansions, they're trading at working capital levels and you get the mines for free," said Martyn.


----------



## nulla nulla

At $1.00, going going... any bidders ladies & gentlemen? As a longterm hold looking to recoveries in metal prices??? Will it get any cheaper?


----------



## PP123

Is there anything in the pipeline to believe these shares will get back up to the former glory days, or was it just a hype run, and these are the true value of these shares.
I just bought some @ $1 as there has been some talk they are so under valued and this price is just based on fear than anything and it ahould be a $4+ Company??
Thoughts?


----------



## Nyden

PP123 said:


> Is there anything in the pipeline to believe these shares will get back up to the former glory days, or was it just a hype run, and these are the true value of these shares.
> I just bought some @ $1 as there has been some talk they are so under valued and this price is just based on fear than anything and it ahould be a $4+ Company??
> Thoughts?




Based on fear? Copper is lower than $2 a pound (with a gloomy outlook), Zinc is under 50c, Nickel has been trashed (in 60 days it's more than halved) ... and the outlook is still for a global recession, and potentially even much lower prices.

There are surpluses of base metals building up, and with few (with the exception of Zinc) miners lowering output ... this isn't going to change overnight. OZL might very well hit $4 again, but believe me - this might not happen for *years*. Just because it's fallen so incredibly fast, doesn't mean it'll rise that quick as well.

I am completely convinced that we'll see many mine closures in the coming months - amongst specs, and even mid tiers - as many companies simply do not hold high quality, high-grade reserves. It was easy enough to dig up anything and everything when the profit margins were as high as they were, but now that they're so very slim - how much lower can companies afford them to fall?


 ... I'm not allowed to give advice, but please - just use some common sense guys. I don't think it's undervalued, at all - and if there's a deep, and painful global recession ... well, just might be overpriced at the moment :


----------



## Fung

Does anybody thinks that we are losing the opportunity costs when we still holding OZL today? Yes OZL may worth $4 before but what about today? It's a period stock rather than Growth stock


----------



## stargazer

Hi all

Unchartered waters for me so have a question.

What happens  to the sp if you own shares of a company and the mine is closed to be reopened can the shares still be traded, does it go into a halt, etc.

Cheers
SG


----------



## sammy84

I think we are going a little too hard on oz minerals. Currently the market is nonsensical and irrational. Once the dust settles I think the we will realise that the world is still turning and that the demand for commodities is still present (China > 8%, India > 7% growth!) . Admittedly the price for commodities wont be what they were previously, but the current prices aren't a good indicator either.

We must also remember the war chest of money that oz has at its disposal from zinifex. I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few months we see some major acquisitions happening. 

Finally re opposition cost: Until shorting is re-introduced there isn't alot of opportunity to make money in this market, so I think you could do worse that park your money in OZ.

Sammy


----------



## oldblue

stargazer said:


> Hi all
> 
> Unchartered waters for me so have a question.
> 
> What happens  to the sp if you own shares of a company and the mine is closed to be reopened can the shares still be traded, does it go into a halt, etc.
> 
> Cheers
> SG




The closure of a mine doesn't necessarily have any effect on the listing/trading of the company's shares.
Of course, it is likely to have an adverse *effect* on the SP, especially if the mine is a substantial, or the entire, part of a company's business. This is clearly not the case with OZL who have good diversification across several minerals, gold, copper, zinc, minor amount of nickel, with Prominent Hill due to come into production shortly. Most of these minerals are beaten down in price at present but OZL has substantial cash on hand and  better long term prospects than most, IMO.


----------



## dj_420

sammy84 said:


> .
> Finally re opposition cost: Until shorting is re-introduced there isn't alot of opportunity to make money in this market, so I think you could do worse that park your money in OZ.
> 
> Sammy




OZL is still on a much higher PE than even the major miners, OZL is betwen 15-20 PE depending on who you read based on current earnings, BHP is around 7 and RIO is just over 5.

I think RIO and BHP presents a much better value for money. Even with earnings forecast that still would only bring it in line with majors on a forward PE on 2009.


----------



## Warren Buffet II

The reality is pretty clear:

OZL extract zinc at a cost close to $0.50c and the price of Zinc is now $0.45, so why do you want to keep extracting if you are losing money for each pound?

Look at copper, Freeport is extracting copper at $1.29 in some mines but in others at $1.96, the price today is $1.90 so why do you want to keep digging at those prices, just close and work on the profitable ones.

I won ´t put any money on any miner right now.

WBII


----------



## electronicmaster

Correct me if I'm wrong.  But it seems (to me) that most people are buying OZL and selling ASAP to make quick profits.  I take it thats it's typical for a low priced instrument (penny stock)?

I myself have 1000 shares @ $0.970 since 22/10/08.  It's my very first trade (or possibly investment).  I really would love to hold on to them just to experence all the emotional pulls on the ups, downs and east days.  And dividends (I suspect will be low or so for a year).  

I don't mind, since it cost me under $990.00 (including the buy commission + GST).

In the mean time I'm researching good investment possibilities like CCL.  And perhaps learn to trade the index


----------



## skyQuake

Warren Buffet II said:


> The reality is pretty clear:
> 
> OZL extract zinc at a cost close to $0.50c and the price of Zinc is now $0.45, so why do you want to keep extracting if you are losing money for each pound?
> 
> Look at copper, Freeport is extracting copper at $1.29 in some mines but in others at $1.96, the price today is $1.90 so why do you want to keep digging at those prices, just close and work on the profitable ones.
> 
> I won ´t put any money on any miner right now.
> 
> WBII




Agree entirely. Most junior miners are pretty much call options on the metal itself. Extracting copper at $1.50, while copper is at $1.90 is fine, but a 10% fall in the price of copper results in a whopping 47.5% fall in profits. As prices get closer, leverage increases. Just be aware that commodity prices are linearly correlated with the miners.


----------



## electronicmaster

electronicmaster said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong.  But it seems (to me) that most people are buying OZL and selling ASAP to make quick profits.  I take it thats it's typical for a low priced instrument (penny stock)?
> 
> I myself have 1000 shares @ $0.970 since 22/10/08.  It's my very first trade (or possibly investment).  I really would love to hold on to them just to experence all the emotional pulls on the ups, downs and east days.  And dividends (I suspect will be low or so for a year).
> 
> I don't mind, since it cost me under $990.00 (including the buy commission + GST).
> 
> In the mean time I'm researching good investment possibilities like CCL.  And perhaps learn to trade the index




Well I could not hold on to OZL after all.  I saw an Elliot wave when I went long.  And the price did go up (Nearly a profit of $190.00 in two days).   Then later it went down to $0.87.   That freaked me out. 

Sold 1000 @  $0.87
(Draw down) $100.00  + $40.00  (inc GST) commissions =  - $140.00 

It was meant to be an investment.  So I'm not emotionally ready for Investing (I'm a noob at this).  Not to happy about that. 

Still slowly building capital while researching for quality Instruments.   And learning E-minis at no cost (As much free material I can get my hands on I mean).


----------



## amazme

electronicmaster said:


> Well I could not hold on to OZL after all.  I saw an Elliot wave when I went long.  And the price did go up (Nearly a profit of $190.00 in two days).   Then later it went down to $0.87.   That freaked me out.
> 
> Sold 1000 @  $0.87
> (Draw down) $100.00  + $40.00  (inc GST) commissions =  - $140.00
> 
> It was meant to be an investment.  So I'm not emotionally ready for Investing (I'm a noob at this).  Not to happy about that.
> 
> Still slowly building capital while researching for quality Instruments.   And learning E-minis at no cost (As much free material I can get my hands on I mean).




Welcome to the stockmarket. 

Tho i cannot understand why you panicked and sold at 0.87. In a time of enormous volatility and jitters this trend will continue. Anyway its a learning game...
If you still held today you may pretty much be square at present


----------



## electronicmaster

amazme said:


> Welcome to the stockmarket.
> 
> Tho i cannot understand why you panicked and sold at 0.87. In a time of enormous volatility and jitters this trend will continue. Anyway its a learning game...
> If you still held today you may pretty much be square at present




Yes true.  

I was thinking that today too.

pain, PAIN :

But it is all cool.  I'm still making cash.  

I will remember your tip next time I try to invest in OZL shares.


----------



## johenmo

electronicmaster said:


> I will remember your tip next time I try to invest in OZL shares.




Don't be in a hurry!  

Disc: I have 450 of them.  (Stuffed in some bottom drawer with lots of used tissues........... LOL)


----------



## jackson8

electronicmaster said:


> Yes true.
> 
> I was thinking that today too.
> 
> pain, PAIN :
> 
> But it is all cool.  I'm still making cash.
> 
> I will remember your tip next time I try to invest in OZL shares.






if you are thinking of buying into again and are looking at the long term you can cushion some  fall in price and maybe earn a little on the side by writing options over them especially just now while volatility is quite high

you would probably want more than $1000 worth but it is a way of produceing a return from your shares even during a flat period and hopefully benefiting from any upward movement in the future


----------



## Reealjrd

The stock market is recovering worldwide. The downfall which we saw was for balancing the finance of the government. Which is being used for elections and all other matters.


----------



## Ashsaege

Reealjrd said:


> The stock market is recovering worldwide. The downfall which we saw was for balancing the finance of the government. Which is being used for elections and all other matters.




Please explain a bit more. So trillions of $s were lost on the stock market because of Obama and McCain?

I prefer papa giuseppe over McCain pizzas


----------



## LeeTV

johenmo said:


> Don't be in a hurry!
> 
> Disc: I have 450 of them.  (Stuffed in some bottom drawer with lots of used tissues........... LOL)



Small to medium movements should be nothing to worry about in these volitile times. These are in my long term draw.
(Disc: I hold 6067 of them, also in amongst tissues)


----------



## PhoenixXx

I am interested to know................
how many people are still holding this stock? 
and how much did you pay per share?


----------



## acedrum

PhoenixXx said:


> I am interested to know................
> how many people are still holding this stock?
> and how much did you pay per share?




Ha ha yes and not telling 
Needless to say it's one for the bottom drawer...

Bought OXR on fundamentals, made a small gain in May 07 then got back in a few months after that. Ah well.


----------



## new2sharemkt

*OZL - Good Buy?*

Hi all, 

I'm new to the share market, haven't had much experience in this, and i wanted to makesure that the first is appropriate.

I ve being looking at OZL for awhile now, I was thinking about invest in that, however, due to the Credit crisis, it seems to be abit unstable, its at 0.97 on friday, i m not too sure, whether i should invest in that at that the price.

Can I have some recommondations.

Thanks guys.


----------



## nick2fish

*Re: OZL - Good Buy?*



new2sharemkt said:


> Hi all,
> 
> I'm new to the share market, haven't had much experience in this, and i wanted to makesure that the first is appropriate.
> 
> I ve being looking at OZL for awhile now, I was thinking about invest in that, however, due to the Credit crisis, it seems to be abit unstable, its at 0.97 on friday, i m not too sure, whether i should invest in that at that the price.
> 
> Can I have some recommondations.
> 
> Thanks guys.




Hi, 
My only recommendation would be to make no decision until you have spent a week(or a year) reading threads here such as AXO analysis, Your best trading rule, Dollar Averaging good or bad? plus headlines such as Copper Ends Lower On Glommy Outlook and keep your money in your back pocket(or ING) for a bit. 
That is My Opinion NOT Advice


----------



## golfmos123

OZL is a bit of a teaser of late.  I have been trading it a little bit between the 0.90 and 1.15 range.  Would be happy to re-enter again once it hit 90 or maybe a touch lower.

Long term - to me it seems pretty much a no brainer, but then again, many many stocks look cheap if you analyse where they were.  But the real question is where are they going now, not where they have once been

OZL also suffers in comparison to the BHPs and RIOs of the world by not being as diversified (obviously I guess!).


----------



## PhoenixXx

Hi all,

Does anyone know why the OZL's P/E ratio is going up but the S/P is going down?


----------



## new2sharemkt

*Re: OZL - Good Buy?*



nick2fish said:


> Hi,
> My only recommendation would be to make no decision until you have spent a week(or a year) reading threads here such as AXO analysis, Your best trading rule, Dollar Averaging good or bad? plus headlines such as Copper Ends Lower On Glommy Outlook and keep your money in your back pocket(or ING) for a bit.
> That is My Opinion NOT Advice





thank you very much for that response, really appreciated. 
I ve being reading analysis from different sources, however, they tend to be saying things differently, i wonder why?

where do u usually read reports, news or annoucements from? (if u dont mind sharing).

Trust me, i m very keen to get this started, however, i m very risk-adverse.


----------



## skyQuake

PhoenixXx said:


> Hi all,
> 
> Does anyone know why the OZL's P/E ratio is going up but the S/P is going down?




Depends on your data source. While share price may get updated to the second, the PE ratio may get updated weekly. ie it might be calculated using yesterday's price etc..

Alternately, they are factoring in the reduced earnings and changing the PE ratio accordingly.

All depends on the whims of the data provider.


----------



## PhoenixXx

Does anyone know what is happening with this good fundamental OZL.........14% down....................................................


----------



## Nyden

PhoenixXx said:


> Does anyone know what is happening with this good fundamental OZL.........14% down....................................................




Not-so-good fundamentals? 
Weak manufacturing reports from the US, a slow down in China ... sigh, why people expect commodity stocks to rise is beyond me :

 ... it may be the fact that short selling is allowed again from tomorrow (for non-financials); and people are getting out before the shorters start their work on this one again


----------



## Boggo

Nyden said:


> ... it may be the fact that short selling is allowed again from tomorrow (for non-financials); and people are getting out before the shorters start their work on this one again




Nyden, you sound like the dudes who were blaming short selling for driving FMG down, they are a bit quiet at the moment even though FMG has lost 50% since the short selling ban came in.

I don't go long on some stocks at the moment because I can't insure them with a short, no shorting can have the effect of inhibiting upward movement in a volatile environment.

My


----------



## Nyden

Boggo said:


> Nyden, you sound like the dudes who were blaming short selling for driving FMG down, they are a bit quiet at the moment even though FMG has lost 50% since the short selling ban came in.
> 
> I don't go long on some stocks at the moment because I can't insure them with a short, no shorting can have the effect of inhibiting upward movement in a volatile environment.
> 
> My




Don't assume. I, of course know that shorting doesn't have the effect many claim it to have - but that's the key word, many. The masses are convinced that short selling is to blame, and the perception is that short selling will hurt SPs. Self fulfilling prophecy, I'm afraid.


----------



## Boggo

Nyden said:


> Don't assume. I, of course know that shorting doesn't have the effect many claim it to have - but that's the key word, many. The masses are convinced that short selling is to blame, and the perception is that short selling will hurt SPs. Self fulfilling prophecy, I'm afraid.




Fair point Nyden, "the sky is falling in" brigade are starting to re-appear again in some quarters.

Cheers


----------



## Boggo

PhoenixXx said:


> Does anyone know what is happening with this good fundamental OZL.........14% down....................................................




Back on the subject of OZL, the fact that they converted ZFX cash to AUD at the peak of the AUD and still kept their debt in $US would be a pretty good reason why they should fall.

Short the bejasus out of them IMO, with those sort of decisions we need to make money on the way down, not going to make any waiting for them to go up.


----------



## jonnycage

im still holding these seemingly downward shares, averaging around 
the $1 mark.

cant see the zinc price bouncing back up (or many other metals for that matter) any time soon.

so i think its a matter of holding on, that is until you are fully obsorbed 
in total loses.

thats when the real fun begins.

no point selling just yet.


do wish i had sold my bulk of zinifex at a tidy profit, many moons ago.

keep on rocking
jonny


----------



## Sean K

jonnycage said:


> im still holding these seemingly downward shares, averaging around the $1 mark.



'seemingly downward'.



What a disaster for buy and holders.

Or, is this going to be a once in a lifetime buying opportunity?


----------



## jonnycage

that was as nice as i could put the shocking spiral downward 


id really like to think its a once in a lifetime,  but 
cant justify out laying any more precious cash on this one.

just like a trip on the titanic at present.


----------



## Fung

Maybe it's the once at a lifetime chance but I don't really think it's "value stock" at all. Also no one knows when will it touches the bottom. Even if you bought @ $0.9-$1 range you are losing 40% already, and even worse for ppl who bought OXR and ZFX before and still holding after they merge. That's almost 80-90% losses I guess

PS: I do hold OZL


----------



## Sean K

Hooly dooly!!!!

52 centimos.

Must have a present PE of about 3, but forward???

1047 [Dow Jones] JPMorgan joins long list of analysts slashing commodity forecasts, cuts 2009 aluminum forecast by 10.9% to 97 cents a pound, copper down 12.8%, to US$1.93/lb, down from average expected price of US$3.18 this year. Nickel and zinc down 15% and 17.4%, respectively. Soft commodity demand to drive asset impairment writedowns among mines in upcoming reporting season, says JPM. OZ Minerals (OZL.AU) yesterday announced it will undertake an impairment review of all assets as of Dec. 31. JPM says it expects impairment writedowns in calendar year 2008 financial report. (EFB)


----------



## Sean K

Then this:

1004 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS upgrades OZ Minerals (OZL.AU) to Buy from Neutral; price target maintained at A$1.00. "Given the moves in commodity prices and equity markets, (yesterday's) comments on earnings and impairments should have come as no surprise," analyst says. "Although the OZL stock price is likely to remain under short-term pressure, the assets now appear to be significantly undervalued when taking a view through the cycle." Last trade 63 Australian cents. (SVM)


----------



## Fung

Not trying to be pessimistic but it really looks like disaster to me. To invest on this stock you may earn huge profit later but its just like gambling. Just my personal opinion


----------



## oldblue

Fung said:


> Not trying to be pessimistic but it really looks like disaster to me. To invest on this stock you may earn huge profit later but its just like gambling. Just my personal opinion





I don't see it that way at all.
True, the SP may not go anywhere, except maybe down further for a while, but OZL has the cash to survive a fairly long downturn and the quality assets to prosper when commodity prices turn back up.
I hold a small parcel, won't be buying any more until things improve but am prepared to wait for an attractive buying opportunity when the trend turns up.


----------



## johenmo

oldblue said:


> ....but OZL has the cash to survive a fairly long downturn...




AFR made the comment in yesterday's paper "..burning up the cash...".  It seems they have a different view.  I hope you're right.


----------



## oldblue

johenmo said:


> AFR made the comment in yesterday's paper "..burning up the cash...".  It seems they have a different view.  I hope you're right.




Let's hope so.
It's the rate at which the burning occurs that's critical. Gold, and to a lesser extent, copper, are still making reasonable money.


----------



## oldblue

I've just read that UBS Warburg have upgraded their recommendation on OZL to "Buy" with a target of $1-00.
I don't put a lot of store on what brokers say but at least it provides a counter view to the pessimists!


----------



## johenmo

I'm getting pessimistic re the recommendations.  Brokers need more transactions to keep the cashflow going!!!  I'll wait and see.

Incidentally - are they called brokers because that's they send you?  Broke?  LOL.


----------



## Ashsaege

back in the day when OXR was around $4 the Smart Investor magazine was saying its a great buy... so when it dropped to $3.80 i got on like donkey kong!

When the Ox changed into OZL it dropped down to a $1.50 and i got out... I wasn't happy at the time, but looking back now im glad i did.

I never thought it would get to 50cents, i might have to have a dabble soon, tho i will wait until the market starts improving... for the right reasons... which will probably be years from now!


----------



## rub92me

I'm looking at this today. If it holds above the lows of this morning I might buy in late afternoon with a stop just below today's low. Short term trade only, with a bit of luck we'll get a bit of a short squeeze on this.


----------



## Sean K

Unusual volume the last 3 days.

Would like tech/a's thoughts.

Is it supply? Demand? What's going on?


----------



## Prospector

This sucks, another margin call on a Director of OZL means he is forced to sell 1/3 of his holdings.  Why isnt it illegal for Directors to use their holdings as collateral for margin calls.  First MFS and now OZL.


----------



## johenmo

Prospector said:


> This sucks, another margin call on a Director of OZL means he is forced to sell 1/3 of his holdings.




The chairman and CEO (from memory) bought 150,000 shares between them.
Not a large amount for guys like them at this price, I guess.

I wonder if Mr Hegarty would consider returning his ex-gratia payment?  But then, with the margin call - maybe he did!!!!!!!

There's a long uphill slope for them - but they are not alone.  I can't help but feel my OXR would have fared better without the ZFX.


----------



## prawn_86

Prospector said:


> This sucks, another margin call on a Director of OZL means he is forced to sell 1/3 of his holdings.  Why isnt it illegal for Directors to use their holdings as collateral for margin calls.  First MFS and now OZL.




Perhaps it wasnt a margin call and he just wanted out because he has insider knowledge? 

Seriously though, i do agree that director margin loans should be disclosed.


----------



## electronicmaster

I'll risk posting this.

OZ May Face Debt Refinancing Difficulty, UBS Says (Update1)

By Jesse Riseborough

Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- OZ Minerals Ltd., the world’s second largest zinc mining company, may have difficulty refinancing $600 million of debt next month as the global credit freeze restricts lending, UBS AG said.

“OZ Minerals is experiencing a squeeze in funds,” UBS analysts led by Sydney-based Jo Battershill said in a Nov. 21 report, downgrading the stock to “neutral” from “buy”. “The December time of the refinancing could potentially present problems in the current debt markets.”

Turbulence in global credit markets has locked corporates out of capital markets after financial companies booked more than $967 billion in writedowns and credit-market losses since last year. Melbourne-based OZ Minerals’ stock has slumped 80 percent this half, twice the decline in the price of zinc, prompting the company to review its operations.

“A worst case scenario would be to assume that the refinancing can not be completed, under which case the company would then have to repay the current debt from the existing cash balance,” UBS said. Paying debt from cash would consume almost all of OZ Minerals reserves, the analysts said.

OZ Minerals dropped 13 percent to 52 cents at the 4:10 p.m. Sydney time close on the Australian stock exchange, the lowest since Oxiana Ltd. bought Zinifex Ltd. to create OZ Minerals in July. UBS cut its price target to 65 cents from A$1.

OZ Minerals spokesman Matthew Foran declined to comment.

The company is likely to defer starting its $310 million Martabe gold and silver mine in Indonesia and its Dugald River project, UBS said. It may also delay planned expansions at Khanong in Laos and Golden Grove in Western Australia, it said. 



Source is from *bloomberg.com*

I've hedged some of my cash in Silver Bullion.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

oldblue said:


> Let's hope so.
> It's the rate at which the burning occurs that's critical. Gold, and to a lesser extent, copper, are still making reasonable money.




FWIW, I got burned on PAS just before the whole commodities boom started because of stupid directors betting the wrong way on futures & hedging, and I'm definitely not going to get caught holding the baby when the music stops again possibly?
What will be interesting is what will become of the gold assets of the old Oxiana? Somebodies going to get a bargain soon? Or are the gold sales enough to keep their heads above the high tide in the septic?

Is it worth me doing some research on this mob again ie someone got a handle on their gold portfolio worth, esp now AU gold approaching $1300 again?


----------



## Sean K

Cripes, deferring all supposed growth assets.

A shame about the Martabe gold project been deferred just when many believe gold is set to be well supported. Sort of doesn't make too much sense on that front.

Virtually going into care and maintenance...

Absolutely incredibly bad timing for this merger.


----------



## aleckara

kennas said:


> Cripes, deferring all supposed growth assets.
> 
> A shame about the Martabe gold project been deferred just when many believe gold is set to be well supported. Sort of doesn't make too much sense on that front.
> 
> Virtually going into care and maintenance...
> 
> Absolutely incredibly bad timing for this merger.




How much has changed in 12 months for this stock? They are set to refinance their short term debt soon. From what I heard from someone else that looked at it (so DYOR) they have cash pretty close to the debt level meaning they are at a zero debt level position. While this is an ok thing compared to insolvency it shows the company doesn't really have any cash available to finance projects at all hence the care and maintenance (they have no cash to meet costs either so they have to downramp operations until they are profitable again). Credit is hard to come by these days; maybe the governments are sucking it up on bailouts.


----------



## rub92me

Looks like the actions announced today had been mostly priced in already; after an initial drop after the announcement it closed strongly with high volume in the last hour. The real test will be when they announce in some more detail what their cashflows are like/have been like with current zinc and copper prices. And of course how much (re)financing they can manage to secure in December.


----------



## Prospector

It was millions of shares, not the odd 150,000.  Just hoping we will get some dividends out of this.


----------



## subi1

aleckara said:


> How much has changed in 12 months for this stock? They are set to refinance their short term debt soon. From what I heard from someone else that looked at it (so DYOR) they have cash pretty close to the debt level meaning they are at a zero debt level position. While this is an ok thing compared to insolvency it shows the company doesn't really have any cash available to finance projects at all hence the care and maintenance (they have no cash to meet costs either so they have to downramp operations until they are profitable again). Credit is hard to come by these days; maybe the governments are sucking it up on bailouts.




Does the fact that they have cash but are extending the loans suggest anything?

I was thinking it could be a good move because they can keep their powder dry and if any companies come up that are in trouble and have really good assetts it may leave OZL in a good position to acquire them.

I don't know whether my thinking is right here but it could be a possibility.

Also I was thinking that this cutback on expenditure and a bit of production could be good as it should drop the anticipated growth in supply and therefore might support prices in the medium term.

I think it is a pity about Martabe being put off but they must have done their sums and decided to wait

Good luck


----------



## CAB SAV

Looks like div's will go. Luv to see BHP pick it up now that RIO deal is off. Prominent Hill is only 130 klm from Olympic Dam.


----------



## oldblue

CAB SAV said:


> Looks like div's will go. Luv to see BHP pick it up now that RIO deal is off. Prominent Hill is only 130 klm from Olympic Dam.





Depends whether you're looking at this from the point of view of BHP or OZL. A bid at this stage would be less than generous whereas OZL have the financial strength and earnings from gold and copper ( at least) to weather the weakness of the next few years, IMO.


----------



## coml483

After the failed BHP takeover of RIO has anyone heard more about a potential BHP takeover of OZL?  We know BHP's balance sheet is good, and the analysts are saying it would make sense for BHP to consider the smaller miners such as OZL as a potential given the locality of mines....... Do you think the potential takeover could move the SP of OZL up?  I bought OZL last month.......


----------



## rub92me

coml483 said:


> After the failed BHP takeover of RIO has anyone heard more about a potential BHP takeover of OZL?  We know BHP's balaen nce sheet is good, and the analysts are saying it would make sense for BHP to consider the smaller miners such as OZL as a potential given the locality of mines....... Do you think the potential takeover could move the SP of OZL up?  I bought OZL last month.......



If anyone would make a bid for OZL now, it would have to be at a premium of the current shareprice. Seeing how hard it has tanked though, I'm not sure it would fetch as much as the price a month ago. I'm not expecting anyone to take this over in the very short term though. 
If the big players like BHP are smart they would look for and wait for companies to go under and then pick up the assets for a song and a dance, rather than bid for them now and save them from going under. OZL doesn't fit in that category imho.


----------



## PhoenixXx

Does anyone know why the P/E is keep on going up (22) and the S/P keep on dropping?
It doesn't really make sense............................................


----------



## Prospector

It is now in a trading halt.  If it is bad news, then try convince me there hasnt been insider trading happening!


----------



## rub92me

PhoenixXx said:


> Does anyone know why the P/E is keep on going up (22) and the S/P keep on dropping?
> It doesn't really make sense............................................



That's because the forecast earnings have been dropping even harder. Huntley's median forecast for FY 2008 is actually 0.9 cents, which would put them at a PE of 61; i.e. according to that they are still considered to be overvalued. All a bit useless these figures imo though, they're at the mercy of commodity prices so all these forecasts are pure guess anyway.


----------



## tcoates

The trading halt is for "debt extension"

The other news items around this also interesting - see

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ASX:OZL

None of it seems like pleasant reading. 

Any somebody was recommending it yesterday? (email I received)

Tim


----------



## sammy84

What happened to all the spare cash Zinifex were meant to bring to the merger! I cant understand how it has gone so pair shaped so fast


----------



## oldblue

Well, I'm taking the optimistic view that OZL are doing the responsible thing by calling a trading halt while the debt is re-negotiated. Otherwise the news would creep into the market and all hell would break loose on the SP, even more so than recently!
Not to say that everything in the garden is rosy by any means.


----------



## YELNATS

sammy84 said:


> What happened to all the spare cash Zinifex were meant to bring to the merger! I cant understand how it has gone so pair shaped so fast





As per Zinifex's 13/05/2008 presentation to the Merrill Lynch 2008 Miami Conference,

As of 31/12/2007,

combined (ie. with OXR) cash on hand was A$2,474 million
combined interest bearing debt was A$539 million
combined net cash balance was A$1,935 million.

Can't understand the current issue with OZL. How and where has this net 
A$2 billion has been deployed in the interim ???


----------



## rub92me

YELNATS said:


> As per Zinifex's 13/05/2008 presentation to the Merrill Lynch 2008 Miami Conference,
> 
> As of 31/12/2007,
> 
> combined (ie. with OXR) cash on hand was A$2,474 million
> combined interest bearing debt was A$539 million
> combined net cash balance was A$1,935 million.
> 
> Can't understand the current issue with OZL. How and where has this net
> A$2 billion has been deployed in the interim ???



I think AUD 800 million of the cash was used to buy AGM with Nickel peaking.
Plus they helped out their mates in TOE by paying over the odds to cover the shortfall in the issue. Ongoing production costs likely quite hefty too.
Add to that that their debt was in USD and cash in AUD. 
Not a pretty picture.


----------



## N1Spec

YELNATS said:


> As per Zinifex's 13/05/2008 presentation to the Merrill Lynch 2008 Miami Conference,
> 
> As of 31/12/2007,
> 
> combined (ie. with OXR) cash on hand was A$2,474 million
> combined interest bearing debt was A$539 million
> combined net cash balance was A$1,935 million.
> 
> Can't understand the current issue with OZL. How and where has this net
> A$2 billion has been deployed in the interim ???




i suggest you ring or email the company and ask, i did the same with PNA and got an answer quite promptly (see PNA thread).


----------



## profithunter

Oh Dear

  MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--OZ Minerals Ltd. (OZL.AU) said Monday it plans to suspend
trading in its shares until Dec. 29 as it continues talks with its lenders over
refinancing of US$560 million worth of debt. 
  The diversified miner went into a trading halt last Friday after its lenders refused to
grant it an extension on the Nov. 30 deadline for refinancing of the debt, and had been
due to resume trade Tuesday after negotiations with its lenders. 
  The Melbourne-based company, which has been hit hard by sagging commodity prices, said
Monday its syndicate of lenders has now granted it an extension of until Dec. 29 to
refinance the debt, with an option to extend this to Jan. 31 if certain conditions are
satisfied. 
  OZ Minerals shares are suspended and the company said it expects to seek reinstatement
to normal trading by Dec. 29, subject to completing its refinancing negotiations. 
  "The company requires time to continue negotiations with the counter-parties to
the refinancing and believes these negotiations may be jeopardized if they took place
during a period of potential extreme share price volatility," the miner said in a
statement.


----------



## Nyden

profithunter said:


> Oh Dear
> 
> MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--OZ Minerals Ltd. (OZL.AU) said Monday it plans to suspend
> trading in its shares until Dec. 29 as it continues talks with its lenders over
> refinancing of US$560 million worth of debt.
> The diversified miner went into a trading halt last Friday after its lenders refused to
> grant it an extension on the Nov. 30 deadline for refinancing of the debt, and had been
> due to resume trade Tuesday after negotiations with its lenders.
> The Melbourne-based company, which has been hit hard by sagging commodity prices, said
> Monday its syndicate of lenders has now granted it an extension of until Dec. 29 to
> refinance the debt, with an option to extend this to Jan. 31 if certain conditions are
> satisfied.
> OZ Minerals shares are suspended and the company said it expects to seek reinstatement
> to normal trading by Dec. 29, subject to completing its refinancing negotiations.
> "The company requires time to continue negotiations with the counter-parties to
> the refinancing and believes these negotiations may be jeopardized if they took place
> during a period of potential extreme share price volatility," the miner said in a
> statement.




Dear oh dear! To think I was trading these just a couple of days ago ... thank goodness I sold! They must be having major problems as to suspend for this long, goodness. As if OZL holders didn't have enough to fret about


----------



## OK2

Safest stock on the market today, guaranteed not to go down in value. Always look on the bright side of life.


----------



## Johnny123

Someone has a conspiracy theory here:

Is OZ Minerals in a takeover conspiracy?

Notice this morning's announcement that Morgan Stanley is increasing its stake in OZL again.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Does anyone know the actual date that PH will be up and running?
Their last quarterly rpt stated that PH was on time and on budget
for November.


----------



## auswede

GumbyLearner said:


> Does anyone know the actual date that PH will be up and running?
> Their last quarterly rpt stated that PH was on time and on budget
> for November.



Well I was working up there and been told by my former workmates who are up there that they are staying till the 22nd of December and that's it for them. They are scaffolders and scaffolders are generally one of the last to leave because they need to stick around to give people access to different areas. So anytime after that I guess :

So what's the general feeling on this stock? Assuming the debt side of things are taken care of, what sort of prices could we be seeing in the next 12-18 months? Worth the risk? (I realise the answer is largely at the whim of commodity prices, but just after some opinions). Bargain buy or speculative risk?


----------



## Family_Guy

Is everything going OK here? Lender pulls the carpet on an extention and its halted. Did they get around to refinancing? Is this gunna get smashed when it comes out of a halt? I got smashed when i bought at $1, and i bought again at .50 but i'm a bit worried it'll get pushed down again.


----------



## J.B.Nimble

Family_Guy said:


> Is everything going OK here? Lender pulls the carpet on an extention and its halted. Did they get around to refinancing? Is this gunna get smashed when it comes out of a halt? I got smashed when i bought at $1, and i bought again at .50 but i'm a bit worried it'll get pushed down again.




Well, don't worry - what is done is done and there is nought you can do about it now. When it comes out of suspension it will be on the back of an announcement, be it good or bad. At that point it will either be smashed and gone, or it will be off like a rocket (carrying lead ballast). Right now I bet there must be a lot of prayers for finance and a quick smooth start up at Prominent Hill...


----------



## frogfuzz

I think its rather obvious as to which way the price will go. 

According to a Sydney Morning Herald article: "The Herald contacted OZ several times, both yesterday and on Tuesday, seeking comment about why the debt maturity was listed as 2012 in its accounts released in August, but has yet to receive a response" (Yet now they are trying to refinance the debt???) http://business.smh.com.au/business/oz-under-financing-cloud-20081203-6qqk.html. (I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the hyper-linked site) The article says ASIC is now interested in Oz. Wonder why?

How do you burn almost $1 bill in 12 months? It's insane. I think Mr $8 Mill Heggarty could answer that question, as could the current CEO who has done nicely out of the merger.

Why are  dumb shareholders (read myself) standing for this? After the merger of my ZFX shares into this "Oz", it meant that my "buy in" was at $3.5 (funnily enough around the "independant valuers" valuation of this wonderful stock). Now it's .55 cents. I'm sure many OXR shareholders feel the same. 

Lets all watch the "perfomance bonuses" get issued soon on that performance! IMO seems to be a history in Oz of big payouts for pathetic share price "returns". Management of Oz make our politicians performances look good, and cheap to keep.

If you haven't guessed - yes I own this fantastic stock and (foolishy) believed the re-assurances of management and their statements.


----------



## random

So the price of zinc goes down. I don't like it but i can live with that!
So the price of copper goes down. I don't like it but i can live with that!
So the price of nickel goes down. I don't like it but i can live with that!
The share price drops. I don't like that much either but i can live with that to.

That the information that the directors of the company put out as to the actual position regarding cash at bank and true debt situation was a lot of crock. Thats the part that really gets to me. 
The cash we supposedly had sitting in the bank was a major decision in me retaining my shares for so long. But guess what! Now you see it now you don't! Woof - its gone. 
Now i really don't like that and i guess i have to live with that to.
Come on ASIC. 
Do something!
I'm really not a vindictive person but surely charges should be on the cards here regarding disclosure. 
I mean lack of!!!


----------



## random

Don't get me wrong.
I think it would be great time to buy into OZL.. when we can again with all the spare cash i have.....don't have.......really do have ...... ah tricked ya!

No serious. It would be a good time to buy in its just that we will have to wait a year or two before the sp comes good again to benefit. For all those who are looking on and don't have any shares at the moment its a great deal.
We still have our resources, our mines which are very efficient and that is great.
We just have to wait for the people of the world to want to buy it all again in the quantities and prices that make us shareholders happy.


----------



## nikemi

random said:


> So the price of zinc goes down. I don't like it but i can live with that!
> So the price of copper goes down. I don't like it but i can live with that!
> So the price of nickel goes down. I don't like it but i can live with that!
> The share price drops. I don't like that much either but i can live with that to.
> 
> That the information that the directors of the company put out as to the actual position regarding cash at bank and true debt situation was a lot of crock. Thats the part that really gets to me.
> The cash we supposedly had sitting in the bank was a major decision in me retaining my shares for so long. But guess what! Now you see it now you don't! Woof - its gone.
> Now i really don't like that and i guess i have to live with that to.
> Come on ASIC.
> Do something!
> I'm really not a vindictive person but surely charges should be on the cards here regarding disclosure.
> I mean lack of!!!




Yeah, and even if ASIC does bring proceedings like in the case with FMG/Forrest in 2004 (that is still ongoing), everyones shares will be worth NIL and there will be nothing to claim by the time it gets to finality. 

It is such a joke for the average you and me that thinks we are making an informed decision. Turns the whole investing/trading think in nothing more than a gamble!!!


----------



## GumbyLearner

The Directors of OZL have an obligation to disclose the financial position of the company to shareholders.

While I have witnessed the relentless short-selling on many trading days this year maybe ASIC have been inundated with complaints this year.

Only time will tell what they will do with this one!

:bs:


----------



## auswede

frogfuzz said:


> How do you burn almost $1 bill in 12 months? It's insane. I think Mr $8 Mill Heggarty could answer that question, as could the current CEO who has done nicely out of the merger.
> .



Have they adjusted the figure due to the drop of the Aussie dollar? Has fallen 30cents odd. 
Have they adjusted the figure due to the drop of the Aussie dollar? Has fallen 30cents odd.


----------



## gilbo

Looks like we are witnessing the latest defence mechanism to ward off short sellers - declare a trading halt! Whereas the roll-over of loans is definitely a tricky business in this current environment, I'm not sure that trading halts are supposed to be used to provide a protective envelope around the company so that they can wait for some good news to tell the market. The market is (now) fully informed about the situation so why can't shareholders trade?


----------



## dandyjac

Things just seem to get worse for Oz minerals

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00912095


----------



## Ashsaege

dandyjac said:


> Things just seem to get worse for Oz minerals
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00912095




so what might that mean for old 'ZFX to OZL' shareholders? that they are going to sue OZL which will be funded my IMF?


----------



## Prospector

Ashsaege said:


> so what might that mean for old 'ZFX to OZL' shareholders? that they are going to sue OZL which will be funded my IMF?





Count me in!  If it is to be funded by IMF then of course people will join.  Might make others more inclined to disclose appropriately too.


----------



## gfresh

.. I think it's a fair case. I am pretty down on the management of OZL throughout this whole thing assuring everybody everything was "all fine"

Not much $ left now for me, but would nice to get some back.

I notice they haven't yet put up an "information pack" as they have for the other stocks they are chasing. What a charming list  

http://www.imf.com.au/


----------



## electronicmaster

dandyjac said:


> Things just seem to get worse for Oz minerals
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00912095




OZL Management issues is an understatement.  They seemed to have lots of money action before (or even without) saying anything.   This is not a good sign at all  

Well.... Time to buy more Silver.......


----------



## Prospector

gfresh said:


> I notice they haven't yet put up an "information pack" as they have for the other stocks they are chasing. What a charming list





  Yeah, I just ordered an information for MFS from them coz those buggers got me too!  Surely this will be the last time.


----------



## Eloise

Hyperthetically, what would happen if OZL was bought out by BHP or a larger company? what would happen to the current OZL shares people are holding?


----------



## chops_a_must

GumbyLearner said:


> The Directors of OZL have an obligation to disclose the financial position of the company to shareholders.
> 
> While I have witnessed the relentless short-selling on many trading days this year maybe ASIC have been inundated with complaints this year.
> 
> Only time will tell what they will do with this one!
> 
> :bs:




How on Earth were they able to come out and say they had "no net debt" in September, then all of a sudden have a billion in debt???

Were they recording it off balance sheet?

If so, who was lending that to them, for they surely would have known that that was illegal. If it was an Australian bank, what are the ramifications of them lending to someone knowingly recording it off balance sheet? Because that bank may turn out to be in some serious doo doo.

Also, what other companies are the directors on the boards of? As I have a feeling they may prove to be incredibly lucrative shorts.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Too many Chiefs and not enough Indians!

Just look at the votes of the merger GM. 
Lots of shareholders voted against the Board of ELEVEN! :screwy:


----------



## Aussiejeff

GumbyLearner said:


> Too many Chiefs and not enough Indians!
> 
> Just look at the votes of the merger GM.
> Lots of shareholders voted against the Board of ELEVEN! :screwy:




But, the Board Of Eleven hold the largest packets of shares and can easily vote down any dissent from the masses of "minority" shareholders.

Sounds a bit like a Communist system of governance if you ask me! 

Still, Capitalists LOVE Communist ideals if and when it suits them.... 


With most major companies operating in this fashion (ie where mega-powerful cadres of board members with massive majority shareholdings can vote themselves whatever they like with almost total impunity) with the complete blessing of current governments and regulators (federal and state) I don't see the situation changing significantly for the better anytime soon.

Good luck


aj
(don't hold)


----------



## gilbo

chops_a_must said:


> How on Earth were they able to come out and say they had "no net debt" in September, then all of a sudden have a billion in debt???
> 
> Were they recording it off balance sheet?
> 
> If so, who was lending that to them, for they surely would have known that that was illegal. If it was an Australian bank, what are the ramifications of them lending to someone knowingly recording it off balance sheet? Because that bank may turn out to be in some serious doo doo.




Net debt is the difference between cash & cash equivalents and interest bearing liabilities. At 30th June 2008 Oz Minerals (which at that time was just Oxiana with a name change; the merger with ZFX didn't happen until 1st July) had about $750m in interest bearing liabilities and $100m in cash. However, ZFX was carrying around $1.1bn in cash & equivalents and only around $150m in liabilities - so put the two together and that should be $1.2bn cash and $0.9bn liabilities - hence no net debt.

However, the new entity on 1st July still had the $0.9bn of liabilities that is presumably the debt needing to be rolled over, so it is possible for there to be a net cash position (i.e. a "no net debt" position) but with a substantial liability position.

Presumably the cash could be used to pay the borrowings, but that would leave very little working capital and so the preference would be to roll the debt over. I suppose.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Yet more bad news

Noticed that a Chinese group are trying to get a 51% stake of Perilya.

I wonder what OZL will sell if they cant obtain refinancing.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24780879-36418,00.html

DEBT refinancing negotiations for Australian diversified miner Oz Minerals are unlikely to succeed, which will force the company to pursue asset sales

The Melbourne-based miner said one lender who was in negotiations to refinance two debt facilities has pulled out.

The Melbourne based miner were in negotiations to refinance two debt facilities, one amount of $US420 million ($640 million) and one to $US140 million ($212 million).

One leader who was drawn to the agreements, whose deadline was December 29, has pulled out.

"One of the prospective new lenders has advised OZ Minerals that it no longer wishes to participate in the refinancing (...), in light of the above, completion by December 29 is now highly unlikely," the company said in a statement. 

The company has been approached by a number of parties in respect of several assets, and all of these are at various stages of due diligence.


----------



## crayfish

GumbyLearner said:


> Yet more bad news
> 
> Noticed that a Chinese group are trying to get a 51% stake of Perilya.
> 
> I wonder what OZL will sell if they cant obtain refinancing.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24780879-36418,00.html
> 
> DEBT refinancing negotiations for Australian diversified miner Oz Minerals are unlikely to succeed, which will force the company to pursue asset sales
> 
> The Melbourne-based miner said one lender who was in negotiations to refinance two debt facilities has pulled out.
> 
> The Melbourne based miner were in negotiations to refinance two debt facilities, one amount of $US420 million ($640 million) and one to $US140 million ($212 million).
> 
> One leader who was drawn to the agreements, whose deadline was December 29, has pulled out.
> 
> \\\"One of the prospective new lenders has advised OZ Minerals that it no longer wishes to participate in the refinancing (...), in light of the above, completion by December 29 is now highly unlikely,\\\" the company said in a statement.
> 
> The company has been approached by a number of parties in respect of several assets, and all of these are at various stages of due diligence.




Has anyone heard the rumour that BHPB is after Prominent Hill? Not sure what the deal is but I heard it today from a good mate of mine.

Another guy I know says that OZ just sacked the guy who made Sepon work. The guy with all the connections in Laos...Apparently he had too much to say to the board...Did someone mentoin communism?! FWIW Sepon is currently this companies mosy profitable operation from what I can tell. (I am surprised they haven\\\'t shut down Century yet which MUST be running at a loss!). Have they shot themselves in the foot yet again? This is all scary!


----------



## Sean K

crayfish said:


> Has anyone heard the rumour that BHPB is after Prominent Hill? Not sure what the deal is but I heard it today from a good mate of mine.



Was in the papers somewhere.

Will be a way for OZL to clear some debt. 

Some goldies with low debt and good income might be looking at it also, as well as Martabe in Indonesia. 

NCM, LGL??

LGL is still sorting through recent acquisitions so probably no. NCM has been waving the M&A opportunity banner about, so maybe yes. 

Either could be good long term pick ups at probably a good price.


----------



## gilbo

According to an announcement to ASX yesterday, OZL admitted that it had burnt through an enormous $226m of cash between Nov-30 and Dec-8 and that its net debt position is now $800m (as at 8-Dec).

More worrying for shareholders is the news that OZL has also admitted it is likely to default on its main US$570m debt facilities by the end of the month (OZL only rates its chances as "reasonable" that the terms can be varied and an extension granted for a month). One of its lenders has apparently given notice that it does not wish to roll-over its facilities meaning that the refinancing of these facilities before year end will almost certainly now not be possible (as had been originally hoped). 

Furthermore, the announcement stated that one of its funds providers, Societe Generale, has alleged that OZL is in default of the facility. If OZL ends up defaulting on these facilities then IMO it would almost certainly lead to a rather rapid influx of men with briefcases into OZL HQ.

The bad news from all of this is it makes it extremely difficult for OZL to sell any assets (at least for a good price) currently as any potential buyer would presumably wait for the distressed asset sales to happen early in the new year.


_"The above is my opinion only - DYOR"_


----------



## Justthinkin

Oxiana in its day was a great company and it built a portfolio of fairly impressive assets. Possibly it got ahead of itself and so the merger with ZFX made some sense. In retrospect, that probably wasn't the best course of action!

Nonetheless, there are still some great assets underneath the pile of poo. I think we'd all be well advised to stop and look the other side of the mayhem...

1. I am not a lawyer but I suspect at some stage someone is going to ask the question "and precisely how much did you lose because the directors disclosed a current liability as a non current liability". Of course the answer will need to eliminate losses sustained because of the million other events and disasters not the least being a AUD300M swing in debt consequential of forex movements. The answer would be interesting but I strongly doubt sufficently definitive. The case might suit lawyers but I'm not sure who else might benefit from a protracted arguement without a conclusive resolve! 

2. And if the litigation is successful [in my view looooooooong shot], who will pay? The directors personally? The company? It's insurers? The auditors {an easy target} But will anybody have any money left? Hmmmmm

3. The media is behaving like a bunch of morons. I seen two articles ex Reuters yesterday saying that this company wasn't interested and this other comapny wasn't interested. I can forsee that the media will ask every listed entity whether or not they are interested. OK let's start at A... _"it was announced today that the administrators of ABC learning centres is not interested in the assets of OZ..."_.

4. The MD proudly lets announcements go out about an extremely sensitive issue in a very difficult market environment which have typo errors!!! What is he smoking????

5. But just when you thought that banging your head against the wall wasn't such a great idea, he then lets you know that (a) he is an incompetent negotiator so much so that people are not interested in him and (b) selling assets would be the best way to save the company. Hello... did anyone detect a hint of desperation????? Aren't Receivers and Liquidators more qualified. Has in fact he declared that the company is insolvent??? 

OK , ingredients of a simple reincarnation:

Step 1 : lose the MD. There is a mining boom and given a shovel, I'm sure he could find something sensible to do
Step 2 : Win lose or draw the bankers are in there either as parties on the other side of the table or via an agent in the form of an adminstrator. This needs to be clarified now... I think the directors are skating on very thin ice if they do not resolve this issue immediately... as in later this afternoon. If it were me I'd invite the adminstrators in to get a morotorium
Step 3 : As is seemingly the case , find out who is taunting the media with speculation and invite them to put an offer on the table or shut up
Step 4 : The bankers convert a significant share of debt into capital as was the case on formation of ZFX... what comes around goes around!!! ( I lost substantially on Pasminco!!)​
Does this help this forum? Probably not but now that I've vented my spleen it does allow me the refocus on the quality assets in the portfolio and not the endless dribble that the media seems only too happy to churn out.

Condolences to those that have open OZ positions.

I'm not an advisor or lawyer so do your own research. These are purely my opinions not even worth the paper they are written on!


----------



## gilbo

I would still like to know why the shares in OZL are still in a trading halt. The market is informed of its position so why are investors being prevented from trading in response to their own determination of the circumstances?

I realise that things are still unresolved, but nevertheless the market is aware of the situation. I note that shares in Ford and GM are still trading on NYSE and their situation is at least as perilous and unresolved as OZL.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Was in the papers somewhere.
> 
> Will be a way for OZL to clear some debt.
> 
> Some goldies with low debt and good income might be looking at it also, as well as Martabe in Indonesia.
> 
> NCM, LGL??
> 
> LGL is still sorting through recent acquisitions so probably no. NCM has been waving the M&A opportunity banner about, so maybe yes.
> 
> Either could be good long term pick ups at probably a good price.




NCM looking at Matabe perhaps...

I hope OZ holders get a good price, but as an NCM holder I hope it's fire sale time. 


*Barrick, Newcrest eye OZ assets *
December 12, 2008 

BARRICK Gold and Newcrest Mining may be interested in buying OZ Minerals' Indonesian gold asset.

A Sydney-based investment banker led the speculation, but added that Indonesia is seen as a risky investment environment. 

The banker said OZ Minerals would have to sell assets to generate cash, as it needs money quickly and an equity raising was not an option given the timeframe. 

The troubled miner is in talks with its banks to refinance $US560 million by the end of the year. 

The banker said that given the holiday season, the miner would need to do an equity raising in the next 10 days. 

Dow Jones Newswires


----------



## GREENS

After the Averbury announcement today, I think there is a much higher probability that Century could be the next casualty at OZ Minerals, given they are chewing through the cash at an astonishing rate. Cash costs at Century are around $US0.65-0.68/lb and the spot price of zinc is around $US0.50. Surely OZ is getting to the point where it has no choice but to close any unprofitable mines which are causing the money to rot away. In addition you’d think the banking syndicate will be advocating strongly for the exact same. Large scale curtailment or closure at Century would have a profound impact on the supply side of the metal. 

Nevertheless OZ is going to be a totally different company if it still exists at the end of all of this mess.


----------



## eddyeagle

OZL - what an absolute shambles of a stock! 
I cant believe it has been in a trading halt for so long!


----------



## oldblue

eddyeagle said:


> OZL - what an absolute shambles of a stock!
> I cant believe it has been in a trading halt for so long!




Would have to believe that the suspension ( not trading halt) is because directors believe that the market can't be fully informed at present, either because of ongoing funding negotiations or sale/merger/takeover discussions, or both!


----------



## Aussiejeff

Also, have a thought for the town of Zeehan in Tas, where many of the laid-off workers would live. That town only has a population around 1,000. On average, about 400 would be working residents (the rest underage children or retirees or housewives etc). So if 100 of its working residents (1 in 4) have suddenly become unemployed, that is going to have a devastating effect on their tiny local economy.

It's also worth noting that it can take months after registering for Newstart to be paid regularly under current Centrelink asset testing rules which enforce witholding periods if you have ANY money in savings, shares etc - unless you are flat stony broke from day one in which case you can get $500 emergency advance.

The negative knock-on effect for small towns all over Australia that rely on mining employment in their regions is going to be significant and take many years to recover from (if ever). Once a small country town dies, it tends to stay dead. Plenty of "almost ghost" towns around the country already as a testament to that effect.

aj


----------



## dougit

best wishes to all in Zeehan. The mine will live to see a future. I just hope not too many workers are brought down because of this temporary drop in commoditie prices.


----------



## GumbyLearner

dougit said:


> best wishes to all in Zeehan. The mine will live to see a future. I just hope not too many workers are brought down because of this temporary drop in commoditie prices.




It will have a devestating effect on the locals.
My old man worked there in the early 70's.
Small town and great people, a real shame


----------



## frogfuzz

Its tragic about the workers getting laid off. I'm sure they are hurting - probably more so than shareholders like myself who have lost a pretty bundle on this whole shambles. At least I've still got my job (for now) which means I can pay for the capital I've lost. It would be horrible to lose your job, especially if you have a mortgage over your roof.

But it really makes me angry when I see pollies in power/union reps jumping up and down about "how dare" Oz lay off workers just before Christmas (hey - its not their money being wasted is it? Just some dumb shareholders). 

If the government has $3 billion of Aussie taxes that they can "loan" Indonesia (do they really think we believe that Indonesia will pay it back??), then they have more than enough in the kitty to loan companies like Oz to keep going (they only need a third of that - and their assets are in Australia - not Indo! Blind Freddy can see who would be the better risk/return. Dammed expensive way of keeping boat people out of Australia if you ask me).

Ironic isn't it? The Banks get guarantees on their business by the government, which keeps them afloat. If Oz had the same guarantees by the Fed ALP there would not be an issue with Oz. Yet the Banks cannot show the same mercy to others. Maybe KRudd should put a few conditions on those deposit guarantees that the banks start lending to Aussie companies, which in turn keeps workers in a job (many who probably voted for him), who in turn keep spending. Instead we see the banks keeping massive profits at the direct expense of taxpayers, and the economy (how many more will lose their jobs when/if Oz goes under?).

Anyway - I read an interesting article about why it isn't worth it for the Banks to screw Oz, because in the process they will screw themselves (if Oz is wound up they will dump $7 Billion of minerals/mines on the markets at a discounted price. Imagine what that would do for the job security of Aussie workers and market valuations.). 

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Staving-off-the-wolves-$pd20081219-MGC8T?OpenDocument

Question (but don't answer it here); What do prostitutes and banks have in common?


----------



## treefrog

Date: 19/12/2008 
Author: Barry FitzGerald 
Source: The Age --- Page: B3 
 Australian-listed OZ Minerals will consider asset sales or takeover approachesas it seeks to refinance its debt. The mining group had intended to conclude anew deal with its lenders by 29 December 2008, but discussions are now likely to extend into the new year. OZ could also opt to issue new shares at a steep discount


----------



## johenmo

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Dicing-with-danger-$pd20081222-MK2UW?OpenDocument&src=sph

Another report,comparing the resources/Ozl Minerals scenario to the property/Centro situation.

ANZ's Mike Smith:
"There is no point in pulling the plug, because what happens then? The whole bloody thing spirals down. All the banks would have to re-evaluate the credit risk on their portfolios. That would require increasing capital and it goes on and on. You have got to be calm, considered and sensible. This is a time for statesmanlike banking."

Let's hope this sort of thinking prevails.


----------



## thunderer

Why Aussie banks happy to see Aussie assets in fire sale? 
It's because their directors are not Aussie at all. 
Aussie feed them, they sell Aussie. 
After a few decades, young Aussie will have nothing left.
Australia will no long a developed country, but as poor as Africa.
Remember who did this: CBA, NAB ... etc


----------



## Family_Guy

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24849926-462,00.html

 TODAY is D-day for OZ Minerals shareholders, who have had their investment locked in limbo for more than a month.

Shares in the mining company are scheduled to resume trading on the stock exchange after going into a trading halt on November 28 as the company tried to refinance its debts.

OZ, which has developed South Australia's new Prominent Hill copper and gold mine near Coober Pedy, revealed on December 4 that its $1 billion pile of cash in June had shrunk to $405 million by November 30, as its projects swallowed money while commodity prices crumbled.

On December 10 it said cash levels had dwindled to $279.4 million - affected by redundancies, closure costs and commodity price weakness - while net debt was $802.6 million.

Speculation about the future of OZ has ranged from it sliding into administration to it being taken over or selling assets to reduce the debt.

Prominent Hill, scheduled to start production next month, is seen as the jewel in the portfolio. BHP Billiton has been touted as an obvious buyer as it already owns the nearby Olympic Dam mine, but some analysts say BHP might wait for OZ to crumble completely so it can pick up the mine more cheaply. 

Shares in OZ, formed from the merger of Oxiana and Zinifex, last traded at 55c, down 87 per cent on their 2007 high of $4.32.

Oxiana founder Owen Hegarty was forced to sell $6.2 million worth of shares late last month in a margin call and resigned from the OZ board.


----------



## Ashsaege

Family_Guy said:


> Oxiana founder Owen Hegarty was f...call, but really he knew things were sinking.


----------



## oldblue

Whatever the answer, it looks as though OH was "luckier" than the rest of us "loyal" shareholders.



Disc: Holding a few - wishing I'd sold em all.


----------



## Nyden

Ashsaege said:


> How do we know if this statement is true? Hegarty probably knew the ship was sinking and jumped! and may of said he got a margin call, but really he knew things were sinking.




Even if this was the case - who cares? What would him have holding done for you, to what benefit? None. Sour grapes is all it is. You would just like to see him dragged down with you.

Many were just foolish enough to hold an ever-dwindling down stock, and now you're just looking for a scapegoat. Honestly, they've overpaid for basically all of their new assets - there's no quality about it! Trade it, don't hold it


----------



## Ashsaege

Nyden said:


> Even if this was the case - who cares? What would him have holding done for you, to what benefit? None. Sour grapes is all it is. You would just like to see him dragged down with you.
> 
> Many were just foolish enough to hold an ever-dwindling down stock, and now you're just looking for a scapegoat. Honestly, they've overpaid for basically all of their new assets - there's no quality about it! Trade it, don't hold it




I'm sure many are looking for an a escapegoat. I held this stock many moons ago! Glad i got out when i did.


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## chansw

*Oz Minerals struggles to roll over debt - paper*
Sun Dec 28, 2008 5:51pm EST

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSSYD40977820081228

SYDNEY, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Oz Minerals (OZL.AX), the world's second-largest zinc miner, faces a battle to convince one of its lenders, HBOS (HBOS.L), to give it more time to refinance $560 million in bank debt, The Australian newspaper said on Monday.

OZ Minerals, formed in July by the merger of miners Oxiana Ltd and Zinifex Ltd, is due later on Monday to refinance the debt which comprises a $140 million loan and a syndicated credit line of which $420 million has been drawn.

"HBOS are playing really hardball on this," the Australian newspaper quoted an unnamed source as saying.

Basis Point, a Thomson Reuters news service, has reported that lenders Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ.AX), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX), BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), nabCapital (NAB.AX), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) and Westpac Banking Corp (WBC.AX) have already agreed to a refinancing.

But HBOS is reluctant to give Oz Minerals more time, the Australian said, adding that its refusal to give the miner another lifeline could trigger a forced sale of assets.

Oz Minerals has operations across Australia, including the Century, Golden Grove and Rosebury zinc mines, its suspended Avebury nickel mine and its Prominent Hill copper-silver-gold deposit. It also owns the Sepon copper and gold mine in Laos.

The company's shares, suspended since late November, have lost 84 percent of their value this year as the prices of its main metals -- zinc, nickel and copper -- have tumbled.

Nickel on the London Metal Exchange MNI3 is down 63 percent this year, while zinc MZN3 has halved. (Reporting by Mark Bendeich; editing by Jonathan Standing) ($1=1.457 Australian Dollar)


----------



## apk

Ann out today:

In its request for voluntary suspension dated 1 December 2008, OZ Minerals indicated that it expected to be able to make an announcement relevant to its suspension by 29 December 2008.  The company has not been able to make the announcement by the indicated dated, but expects to do so tomorrow.

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00916839


----------



## magiceye

Sky Business Channel is reporting “Oz Minerals gets debt extension to Feb 27”. I wonder if that means another two months of this trading halt...


----------



## magiceye

magiceye said:


> Sky Business Channel is reporting “Oz Minerals gets debt extension to Feb 27”. I wonder if that means another two months of this trading halt...




Yup - the ASX release is out. The suspension of trade shall continue potentially until 27 Feb.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/getAnnPdf(%27/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=%27,%20%2700916915%27,%20%27Announcement%27);return%20false;


----------



## oldblue

So it looks like the refinancing won't be confirmed until OZL make the necessary asset sales. Unfortunately, this will further weaken their bargaining position and make it even less likely that OZL will achieve satisfactory prices.


----------



## GumbyLearner

oldblue said:


> So it looks like the refinancing won't be confirmed until OZL make the necessary asset sales. Unfortunately, this will further weaken their bargaining position and make it even less likely that OZL will achieve satisfactory prices.




Unfortunately another terrible outcome for holders. The longer this is delayed the closer to oblivion they will come! IMHO


----------



## oldblue

GumbyLearner said:


> Unfortunately another terrible outcome for holders. The longer this is delayed the closer to oblivion they will come! IMHO





I tend to agree now.
It looks like the cavalry - in the form of better metal prices - are too far away to be of timely help.


----------



## THE BUZZ

how long can they extend the trading halt to ?? 
any limitations, or as they see fit?

Holding and can't do a thing about it.


----------



## oldblue

THE BUZZ said:


> how long can they extend the trading halt to ??
> any limitations, or as they see fit?
> 
> Holding and can't do a thing about it.




Some of the answers are here - at least in Bryan Firth's opinion.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24857326-16941,00.html


----------



## THE BUZZ

interesting read, HOPEFULLY the pluses will outnumber the minuses...

2 more months of finger crossing ahead.  

Many thanks for link.


----------



## Gazzer

Does anyone have any idea what will happen to my 40 cent call option at the end of Jan? I am long a bundle. I cannot trade out of them as the market is suspended and can't get a price. Can I still exercise them?


----------



## oldblue

Some encouraging news here.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/oz-minerals-set-to-offload-prominent-hill-20090112-7f7v.html

Just a pity that it's probably OZL's best asset and a very big part of its growth potential.


----------



## electronicmaster

oldblue said:


> Some encouraging news here.
> 
> http://business.smh.com.au/business/oz-minerals-set-to-offload-prominent-hill-20090112-7f7v.html
> 
> Just a pity that it's probably OZL's best asset and a very big part of its growth potential.




If they still have working Copper and Gold mines? Then it is _POSSSIBLE_ that OZL could come out a winner within the year.

My fingers are crossed.   I hope things work out for them.  I'll be very interested in a peace of that pie if China demand is starting to be on the rise.


Still, more investigating on my part to be done before they see my money again.  But I really hope OZL does this right.


----------



## aleckara

Gazzer said:


> Does anyone have any idea what will happen to my 40 cent call option at the end of Jan? I am long a bundle. I cannot trade out of them as the market is suspended and can't get a price. Can I still exercise them?




From my understanding it will expire worthless. If so would have been great to go short on a Dec ending option - it would have likely never been exercised.


----------



## sails

Gazzer said:


> Does anyone have any idea what will happen to my 40 cent call option at the end of Jan? I am long a bundle. I cannot trade out of them as the market is suspended and can't get a price. Can I still exercise them?




Here's a link to another thread on OZL options with some discussion around Dec08 expiry.  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13679

Also a link to the relevant notice for Dec09 expiry found on the ASX site: http://www.asx.com.au/products/pdf/notices/2008/Clm22708.pdf 

And a link to 2009 notices - it's where you will most likely find out what will happen for Jan09 options:  http://www.asx.com.au/products/options/notices/2009.htm.  It's only got one announcement so far this year, but this is the page to watch if you have options in a stock that is not behaving normally.

You may be able to exercise your calls as there have been a few put exercises occouring almost every day - best thing is to ask your broker.  Of course, by exercising a long call, they are being converted to stock and will require more funds going into OZL so you would have to be pretty convinced this stock will be OK for your trading style.


----------



## sails

aleckara said:


> From my understanding it will expire worthless. If so would have been great to go short on a Dec ending option - it would have likely never been exercised.




40c Dec options would have been risky - the ACH used a reference price of 55c (last traded price) so automatic exercise could have been a problem for those who thought they would just expire worthless.  Some calls were exercised up to the 50c strike for Dec expiry.  Found on historical course of sales on the 19th Dec for expiry exercises.


----------



## dandyjac

Oz minerals has just got it's bridging finance agreement in place could give them a little breathing space.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...lts.jsp?searchBy=asxCode&allinfo=&asxCode=ozl


----------



## dj_420

electronicmaster said:


> If they still have working Copper and Gold mines? Then it is _POSSSIBLE_ that OZL could come out a winner within the year.
> QUOTE]
> 
> A winner? I dont think we could really call this outcome a winner, they do have operating gold and copper mines but they are selling their best assets now at very distressed prices.
> 
> For examples sake (All hypothetical figures) say they were earning 10 cents per share and puts them on a PE of 5.5 (At 55 cents). They sell Martabe and PH and lose 3 cents per share earnings and the potential earnings for 7 cents per share. We then have OZL relist with less debt and less earnings. The PE then increases and will be subsequently sold down.
> 
> The point been that they are flogging off assets to reduce debt which unfortunately will reduce earnings and earnings capacity. PH was supposed to be the flagship mine, they have been working towards mining this for the past 5 years I think. To have to sell PH at the final hurdle is ludicrous, AM should be ousted as soon as possible. He has destroyed shareholder wealth and burnt through the combined war chest of OXR and ZFX in a matter of months.
> 
> The only good outcome I see of this is that OZL assets are snapped up by Australian companies and can retain some more Australian jobs. One of the jobs that should be vacant IMO is AM's.


----------



## random

The price of gold has jumped markedly today (up $42 per oz).
Personally i believe it will jump considerably more and it has only just got started (but thats just me).  
Prominent Hill's value is not to be underestimated by anyone but its worth may be. I just hope that OZL shareholders will still be able to benefit from it (other than selling this prime asset ) once operations commence. 
If only the banks would be more patient and not for that much longer either.
Everyone would and will recieve everything they are entitled to and more if they just hung in there.
What a tragedy if we have to part with it.........so close but so far.


----------



## johenmo

Business Spectator 7:18 30 Jan 09
"*OZ Minerals expected to cut 1200 jobs*
Debt-laden mining company OZ Minerals Ltd will detail 1200 job losses in a meeting scheduled for the release of its December quarter production report today, The Age reports. 
The world's second largest zinc miner is expected to shed staff and contractor positions from Australian, Indonesian and Laotian operations, the paper said. 
Oz Minerals persuaded its bankers to provide it with a bridging finance facility of up to $140 million on January 22. 
The company remains suspended on the ASX after being placed in a trading halt on November 28. Its shares last traded at 55 cents. "

Not surprising.  Other miners are sacking people.  Why should OZL be any different.  And they aren't the most inspiring example of a healthy company atm.  We're supposed to hear something soon, aren't we?

DISC: I hold a smattering.  (Enough to buy a Big Mac. )


----------



## oldblue

I'd buy a big mac with mine, too, if only I was allowed to sell them!

A sort of a Clayton's listing.


----------



## johenmo

AIR Midday Report today
"UBS cuts their Telstra target price from 525c to 455c. Retains BUY. But then they also downgrade to a SELL on Oz Minerals…a little late it seems. 50c target price. "

A little late????


----------



## oldblue

But isn't it good to see that UBS has finally caught up with the rest of the world.
Next they'll be telling us that the stock is suspended!


----------



## Gazzer

sails said:


> Here's a link to another thread on OZL options with some discussion around Dec08 expiry.  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13679
> 
> Also a link to the relevant notice for Dec09 expiry found on the ASX site: http://www.asx.com.au/products/pdf/notices/2008/Clm22708.pdf
> 
> And a link to 2009 notices - it's where you will most likely find out what will happen for Jan09 options:  http://www.asx.com.au/products/options/notices/2009.htm.  It's only got one announcement so far this year, but this is the page to watch if you have options in a stock that is not behaving normally.
> 
> You may be able to exercise your calls as there have been a few put exercises occouring almost every day - best thing is to ask your broker.  Of course, by exercising a long call, they are being converted to stock and will require more funds going into OZL so you would have to be pretty convinced this stock will be OK for your trading style.




The options market opened from 2 til 4 on Thursday and I tried to sell my 40c calls. There were no takers at .01. Interestingly the 40c puts were changing hands at about 10c which would place a value on OZL of about 30c. I asked my broker not to exercise the calls otherwise I would been forced to buy OZL at 40c. Not a good idea when the market sees OZL at 30c. (I don't know what UBS are up to if they think the target is 50c). If I had exercised the calls I wonder where my broker would get the stock from if the shares were suspended. Maybe there was someone somewhere hoping he was going to get his stock called away and now cursing because it wasn't!


----------



## BillyIdol

What annoys me most (as a shareholder) is that IMF are taking up a case against OZL, as we all know, but... 

"The claims relate to alleged misleading and deceptive conduct and alleged breaches by OZL of its continuous disclosure obligations between 28 February 2008 and 3 December 2008," IMF said.

IMF said all shareholders who bought Oz Mineral's shares from February 28, 2008 to December 3, or swapped Zinifex shares for Oz Minerals shares, were eligible to take part in the claim." 

Oh, so all of a sudden, because I bought OUTSIDE these times, my money / shares do not rank as equally as those / with others who did buy in this window ?  

Maybe if we had all known, as we should have done, some could have sold or done something about their position.  It would have been real nice to know.

Maybe the fact that I enlisted in the DRP and thus 'bought' shares may entitle me to take part ?!

Please understand, my anger is directed at the principle not necessarily of what OZL may or may not have done, but the fact that IMF are potentially shutting out shareholders who bought outside this window.  This is wrong, and strikes me as a bit stupid, because the more people who are upset, the stronger the case, surely ?!  If we were all invited to the party, besides being a highly entertaining spectacle, it would send a clear message about just who is REALLY upset.


----------



## oldblue

Well, it's worse than that, Billy, because as a shareholder you ( and the rest of us) are going to have to pay to defend this action and any recompense that may come out of it.


----------



## BillyIdol

Very true, oldblue.  I tell you what though, depending upon which assets they sell (and I've yet to see which they are), I would seriously consider exiting my holding too....If and when they return to trading.

A long, protracted legal case will not help anyone.  It is a drain on resources and shifts focus away from what should actually be happening, which is getting the business running and trading again.  Sitting here in mothballed, caretaker mode for nigh on 12 weeks (disclaimer, I have lost count of when the trading halt kicked in !) is annoying because my online broker rates my holding worth as zero and hence, distorts the actual performance stats.


----------



## oldblue

Yes, there'll be a lot of holders weighing up the odds once some assets start getting sold and ( hopefully) the shares are back on the boards. Likely to be a rush for the exits I expect so the smart thing may be to keep watching and waiting for a while, especially if the assets attract reasonable bids and more particularly if there are reasons to be hopeful about the PoG, zinc, copper etc.


----------



## bigdog

*Not VG news *

13/02/2009 		Possible asset write-downs
http://media.wotnews.com.au/asxann/00927015.pdf

ASX Release 
Possible asset write-downs    

As part of the preparation of its annual accounts, OZ Minerals has reviewed the carrying value of its assets, as required under relevant accounting standards. Based on an initial review, the Company has formed the view that write-downs of between $2.3 billion and $2.8 billion will be recorded in the Company’s annual accounts for 2008.  

Initial indications of the breakdown of this amount are as follows: 


Impairment for current mines and development projects, advanced exploration projects such as Canada and deferred projects such as Avebury of between $1.9 billion and $2.2 billion.   

De-recognition of deferred tax assets in respect of tax losses of between $0.2 billion and $0.3 billion.   

Negative mark to market adjustment of listed equity investments (mainly Toro & Nyrstar) based on their 31 Dec 08 share price of between $0.2 billion and $0.3 billion.
Commenting on the write-downs, OZ Minerals Chief Financial Officer, David Lamont said “as a consequence of the significant falls in commodity prices seen across all of our operations, the carrying value of many of our assets has declined considerably.  While we continue to address this through our ongoing cost reduction program, these efforts have not been sufficient to offset the decline in asset values”.

Please note that the assessment of the carrying value of the Company’s assets has not yet been reviewed by the Company’s auditors, Audit Committee or its Board and full details will be set out and verified with the release of the full year financial accounts.


----------



## PhoenixXx

So what would be next? File for bankruptcy?
The Feb 27 deadline is due in 2 weeks time.
I never expect OZL to be reopened after it was suspended anyway


----------



## Redwings

Wonder what's next for OZL....

The Australian

NEWCREST Mining has booked a modest profit rise for its first half but has shied away from purchasing the Martabe gold project in Indonesia from debt-laden OZ Minerals.

Australia's biggest gold company said net profit for the six months to December 31 was $154 million, compared with an $8.1 million loss in the previous corresponding period, which was affected by a $2 billion restructure of the company's gold hedge book.

Underlying profit for the six months increased by 16 per cent on the previous corresponding period to $241.6 million, with higher gold prices offsetting a fall in output. No interim dividend was declared.

Newcrest recently raised $750 million by selling shares to institutional investors, and could raise another $150 million through a share purchase plan to repay debt and fund expansion and possible acquisitions.

Distressed miner OZ Minerals is pursuing asset sales to help repay its debt, with analysts speculating that Newcrest was one of the front-runners for its undeveloped Martabe project in Sumatra, Indonesia.

"One of the main determinants of projects for us, and one of the main reasons we got into the Hidden Valley and Wafi-Golpu area (in PNG), is there is huge upside exploration-wise," Newcrest chief executive Ian Smith said. "Everything we have seen about Martabe so far, and what our people have looked at from a distance, suggests the upside exploration-wise is not that great."

Shares in the company increased 67c to $34.67.

Newcrest expects input costs to fall during the current calendar year and will continue to pursue cost reductions at the Telfer mine in Western Australia and the Gosowong operation in Indonesia.

Revenue for the half rose 15.2 per cent to $1.29 billion, while operating earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation increased 15 per cent to $507.3 million. It achieved a realised gold price of $1076 an ounce in the six months to December 31, compared with $843 in the previous corresponding period. Newcrest owns and operates six mines in Australia and Indonesia

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25051031-36418,00.html


----------



## bigdog

Redwings said:


> *Wonder what's next for OZL....*
> 
> [/url]




Asset sales before Feb 27 and fire sale of assets at bargin prices after Feb 27!

Sounds like Newcrest is looking to pickup assets at a cheaper price!


----------



## Redwings

bigdog said:


> Asset sales before Feb 27 and fire sale of assets at bargin prices after Feb 27!
> 
> Sounds like Newcrest is looking to pickup assets at a cheaper price!




Heh...reading between the lines it does sound like Newcrest might be trying to haggle on price. 

Either way, this is bad news for OZL and fingers crossed we'll get some better news soon.


----------



## gfresh

Take over offer from the Chinese at $0.88 share announced after close.. looks like it's the end for Ozminerals as an Australian company


----------



## Prospector

Make that 88.2 cents per share.  China will end up owning much of Australia's resources soon!  Seems better than what it is at the moment though.


----------



## prawn_86

Prospector said:


> Make that 88.2 cents per share.  China will end up owning much of Australia's resources soon!  Seems better than what it is at the moment though.




Yep its a slow 'takeover' without the need for war. One day the West will wake up and realise that they no longer own anything and that China owns most of the world. China has a very long term plan IMO, unike short sighted Western govs.


----------



## electronicmaster

We need our Silver mines darn it.  How many do we have left?

Australia needs real wealth.


----------



## bigdog

bigdog said:


> Asset sales before Feb 27 and fire sale of assets at bargin prices after Feb 27!




*The fire sale of OZL was before Feb 27 and bad for the holders who paid $1+, $2+ and $3+ per share


IMHO, management suspended the trading of OZL shares back in November to prohibit the continuing fall in share price below 55 cents.  Now they claim sale price "represents a premium of 50% to the last traded price of OZ Minerals on 27 November 2008"
*

ASX ANN today
16-02-2009 04:15 PM  	 OZL  	  All Cash Offer for OZ Minerals by Minmetals 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00927580

16-02-2009 04:15 PM OZL
 All Cash Offer for OZ Minerals by Minmetals 

Recommended 82.5 Cents per Share All Cash Offer For OZ Minerals By Minmetals

Highlights  
•	Agreement between OZ Minerals and Minmetals for are commended cash offer of 82.5 cents per share under a scheme of arrangement, valuing OZ Minerals’ equity at approximately $2.6billion

•	Offer price represents a premium of 50% to the last traded price of OZ Minerals on 27 November 2008

•	OZ Minerals shareholders also benefit from certainty of all cash consideration in a volatile market

•	Provides increased certainty for OZ Minerals’ key stakeholders including financiers, employees, relevant regional communities and suppliers OZ Minerals’ outstanding debt facilities to be repaid by Minmetals upon successful completion of the transaction, which will resolve the company's present financial issues OZ Minerals’ outstanding convertible bonds to be redeemed or otherwise acquired

•	OZ Minerals will continue to be headquartered in Australia Transaction unanimously recommended by OZ Minerals’ Board of Directors (subject to no superior competing proposal and independent expert confirming the transaction is in the best interest of OZ Minerals shareholders) Completion of transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and other conditions

OZ Minerals Limited (“OZMinerals”) and China Minmetals Nonferrous Metals Company Limited (“Minmetals”) announce that they have entered in to a Scheme Implementation Agreement for the proposed acquisition through a scheme of arrangement of all outstanding shares in OZ Minerals by Minmetals at a cash price of 82.5 cents per share.

OZ Minerals is proceeding with its previously announced asset sale program in relation to Martabe and GoldenGrove.  Minmetals’ price will increase if the aggregate net sale proceeds received for those assets exceeds $425million (see Attachment).

The transaction is unanimously recommended by OZMinerals’ Board of Directors, subject to no superior competing proposal and confirmation by an independent expert that the transaction is in the best interest of OZ Minerals shareholders.  Completion of the transaction is subject to a number of conditions including due diligence, the approval of regulatory authorities in Australia and the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”) as well as the approval of OZ Minerals’ current lending banks.  Furthermore, an independent expert will be appointed to confirm whether the transaction is in the best interest of OZ Minerals shareholders.


----------



## Prospector

prawn_86 said:


> Yep its a slow 'takeover' without the need for war. One day the West will wake up and realise that they no longer own anything and that China owns most of the world. China has a very long term plan IMO, unike short sighted Western govs.



I am betting that China and Russia own most of the US and Europe debt.  And soon our raw materials.  The US only understands takeover through war as you say, anything more subtle and it all goes under the radar.


----------



## bigdog

http://business.smh.com.au/business/oz-minerals-agrees-to-chinese-takeover-20090216-88zm.html

OZ Minerals agrees to Chinese takeover
February 16, 2009 - 4:25PM

Debt-laden copper and gold producer OZ Minerals has recommended a $2.6 billion takeover offer from Chinese trading company Minmetals, the second Chinese resource house to come to the rescue of a debt-troubled Australian miner in less than a week, after Chinalco agreed to pump $30 billion into Rio Tinto.

Minmetals is offering 82.5 cents for each share in OZ Minerals, which is seeking to refinance $1 billion of debt by February 27, with the proposed acquisition to be completed via a scheme of arrangement.

OZ Minerals said the offer is unanimously recommended by its board in the absence of a superior one.

"The board has determined that Minmetals' cash proposal is in the best interests of OZ Minerals' shareholders and believes this is the best outcome for shareholders compared with any of the other options available to us,'' chairman Barry Cusack said in a statement.

Shares in OZ Minerals - which was formed through the merger of Oxiana and Zinifex last year - last traded at 55 cents before the company entered a voluntary suspension in December.

Onerous hurdles

The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals, completion of due diligence by Minmetals, OZ Minerals banking syndicate agreeing to extend the term of their debt arrangements and shareholder approval.

Some analysts question the willingness of the Federal Government to allow Chinese state-owned enterprises to take big stakes in domestic mining companies at a time when low commodities prices have left companies vulnerable to overseas predators with state funds.

"It looks like a decent price if all the hurdles are passed. But the hurdles look a bit onerous,'' said Tim Schroeders, portfolio manager at Pengana Capital. "It's far from a done deal.''

Asset sales continue

OZ Minerals, which has made no secret of its struggle to quickly sell off mines and refinance debt, warned on Friday it faced between $1.9 billion and $2.2 billion in impairments on underperforming mines.

The company has been trying to unload assets across Australia, South-East Asia, North America and North Africa to help it meet a February 27 deadline to repay a $140 million loan.

Failure to make the payment threatened to force OZ, trading in whose shares has been halted since November, into bankruptcy. It is the world's second-biggest zinc miner behind Canada's Teck Cominco and also owns, copper, gold and nickel mines.

It will continue to pursue the sale of its undeveloped Martabe gold and silver mine in Indonesia and the Golden Grove zinc and copper mine in Australia, it said.

OZ Minerals has also been pursuing other cost-reduction measures including, job and production cuts and placing its Avebury nickel mine in Tasmania on care and maintenance.

Domiciled in Australia

OZ Minerals said its outstanding debt facilities would be repaid by Minmetals upon completion of the transaction, which would solve its "present financial issues''.

"Minmetals has confirmed that it intends to continue to operate current OZ Minerals operations, which, in turn, will benefit employees and relevant local communities and also provide certainty to businesses beyond those operated by OZ Minerals,'' managing director Andrew Michelmore said in a statement on Monday.

OZ Minerals said the company would continue to be domiciled in Australia with its staff retained.

"Minmetals will provide a robust platform for OZ Minerals to realise its growth potential when market conditions permit,'' Minmetals chairman Zhou Zhongshu said in a statement.

The proposal follows Rio Tinto's $US19.5 million ($30 million) deal with major shareholder and China's state-backed company Chinalco last Thursday. Rio is confident the Federal Government will approve its tie-up with Chinalco.


----------



## oldblue

If there's no better offer - and we shouldn't assume that, now that a floor's been put under the value of OZL - I'm picking that shareholders will grab it with both hands in sheer relief at avoiding a total loss.


----------



## BillyIdol

Well, I bet that the board blooming well recommend it because they get off scot-free !  Anyhow, watch the bidding war, might flush out some other parties ?


----------



## sammy84

I am really surprised that BHP has sat idly by through out this whole crisis and hasn't acquired anyone. Not much point dumping the RIO offer to pursue other opportunities and then not pursue them!


----------



## bigdog

What is your expected opening price tomorrow?

At least 825 cents!

OZL could be cheap takeover for BHP!

OZL had $2 billion in the bank in June and now OZ Minerals’ equity at approximately $2.6billion.  They also had the loans now due for repayment
-- AM has really screwed things up; bring back Owen H

ASX ANN
16-02-2009 06:15 PM  	 OZL  	  Trading Suspension Lifted 


16 FEBRUARY  2009 
ASX Release Lifting of Suspension   

OZ Minerals wishes to advise that suspension of trading in the Company’s shares will be lifted by the ASX tomorrow, Tuesday 17 February, 2009.  

The Company confirms that it is in compliance with its continuous disclosure obligations.


----------



## maungatapu

Aspect Huntley Research has an intrinsic value of $1.15. If this value is accurate then Minmetals is getting a very good deal, if it goes through, with copper, nickel and zinc close to their lows. My feeling is that BHP wouldn't want to buy its nickel and zinc interests just its copper & gold.

Why would a trading suspension remain at 4.15pm then lifted at 6.15pm?


----------



## Mofra

maungatapu said:


> Why would a trading suspension remain at 4.15pm then lifted at 6.15pm?



Just allowing the insto's their off-market trades to re-balance prior to the inevitable pre-open auction scramble by the common clod


----------



## So_Cynical

The Chinese communist party is buying our #3 diversified miner for 2.6 Billion....an absolute 
bargain in US dollar terms, perhaps this is the start of the Chinese switching out of USD 
assets (bonds/dollars) into real assets.

Amazing.


----------



## bigdog

Mofra said:


> Just allowing the insto's their off-market trades to re-balance prior to the inevitable pre-open auction scramble by the common clod




The last 10 trades (of total 17) today were this morning
-- there were no other trades after closing today
-- the other seven Exercise Putl low volume trades


Date………...  	Time.......  	Price Qty...  	Value ($)..  	Conditions
16/02/2009	7:06 AM	$1.20	5000	$6,000.00	Exercise Putl
16/02/2009	7:06 AM	$1.20	12000	$14,400.00	Exercise Putl
16/02/2009	7:06 AM	$1.20	7000	$8,400.00	Exercise Putl
16/02/2009	7:06 AM	$1.20	9000	$10,800.00	Exercise Putl
16/02/2009	7:06 AM	$1.20	39000	$46,800.00	Exercise Putl
16/02/2009	7:06 AM	$1.10	13000	$14,300.00	Exercise Putl
16/02/2009	7:06 AM	$1.10	4000	$4,400.00	Exercise Putl
16/02/2009	7:06 AM	$1.10	6000	$6,600.00	Exercise Putl
16/02/2009	7:06 AM	$1.10	116000	$127,600.00	Exercise Putl,Crossed
16/02/2009	7:06 AM	$1.00	6000	$6,000.00	Exercise Putl


----------



## bigdog

*OZ Minerals has recommended a $2.6 billion takeover offer from Chinese trading company Minmetals

It is a fraction of the $12 billion combined market capitalisation when Oxiana and Zinifex announced their merger deal almost a year ago.

Can someone please explain the difference!*

*wa business news reported:*
http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story.php?/1/70456/OZ-rescue-adds-to-Swan-s-headaches/dba

OZ rescue adds to Swan's headaches
16-February-09 by Mark Pownall - Comment

A Chinese white knight for Oz Minerals may give stressed shareholders some relief but it will only add to the mounting pressure on federal Treasurer Wayne Swan who has the final word on foreign investment.

Mr Swan already had the massive Rio Tinto deal to cast his eye over before Oz announced today's $2.6 billion offer by China's Minmetals.

While that might be a healthy-looking 50 per cent premium to the share price when Oz last traded, it is a fraction of the $12 billion combined market capitalisation when Oxiana and Zinifex announced their merger deal almost a year ago.

On Thursday, mining giant Rio Tinto has sold minority interests in some of its most valuable assets, including iron ore miner Hamersely Iron, to Chinese group Chinalco as part of a transformational US$19.5 billion deal.

Because of Rio's dual listed status and the importance of its assets in Australia - including the Pilbara iron ore company Hamersely Iron in which Chinalco will take a direct stake for US$5.15 billion - the deal will need to be approved by the federal government.

These are the latest in a string of deals that have seen Chinese entities take strategic holdings in a raft of mining companies, including Gindalbie Metals, Mt Gibson Iron, Grange Resources and Perilya.

There is also the growing greenfield interests of groups such as Citic Pacific which is investing $5 billion in an iron project near Cape Preston.

While Chinese investment is coming off a low base compared to other leading nation's such as the US and Japan, the psuedo-state nature of China's corporations has caused jitters in Australia long before the market down-turn made our resources attractive at firesale prices.

Mr Swan will have to make some hard choices.

The unexpected plunge in global markets has made capital a rare commodity and the Chinese appear to one of the few nations that remains willing to spend. By buying mines and resources companies it could be argued it is saving Australian jobs and giving beleagured investors some return on their investment.

But that largesse is because of the strategic importance of our resources and there are fears that, when markets rebound, Chinese ownership will influence prices and future investment decision-making.

Whatever the case, the global financial crisis is forcing a rethink of many aspects of the way governments act, from fiscal policy to foreign investment.

Xenophobia over jobs has already political pressure in places like the UK and Australia needs to be careful how it treats foreign investors, especially ones representing a huge customer and regional powerhouse like China.

Market purists believe that foreign investment controls are the wrong way to control such issues, and that existing laws such as state agreements, mining and exploration covenants and transfer pricing rules already provide enough sticks to manage a foreign owner.

However, market economics is on the nose right now and no-one likes to see the farm sold off, be it to China or anyone else. Your call Mr Swan.


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## sinic

Interesting - the chinese gov spends 2.6 billion to buy OZL - the australian gov spends 4.2 billion to put pink batts in roofs.


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## thunderer

Come on BHP, 1:20 share offer.A much better deal than the 3:1 rio offer.
Keep Aussie resource owned by Aussie.


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## sammy84

thunderer said:


> Come on BHP, 1:20 share offer.A much better deal than the 3:1 rio offer.
> Keep Aussie resource owned by Aussie.




I with you thunderer. Not only does this keep resources aus owned, it would also help BHP in the long term.


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## Miner

Guys

It is not a winnable match for us in OZL

Why we are loosing a sure win match. OZL was so strong and suddenly collapsed.

OUr economy was so strong and we sucked the Chinese with high premium on iron ores thinking the  people from China just because they can not speak English like us,  were fools. 

Now Me Speak No English  people have come back with all their hidden tricks and buying us off at a throw away  price. 

If Mr Rudd and company at least  joins hands with private (good ones) industries and try to stop Chinese or any foreign  invasion one after other our future is gone. 

Restricting foreign ownership will be Short term pain but long term gain. 

Look at OZL RIO, Citic Pacific and many others are just coming to be snared by very clever Chinese Business. We taught everything to foreign students  in our universities when our children preferred to go to TAFE or just to earn short term money become tradies leaving schools at year 10. 

Chinese will be followed  by Indian companies - just wait and see. Uranium Coal Indians are slowly snaring. Look at IPL cricket and not Incitec how we got sold to India. 

Our teaching to people outside our Land  and our children's lack of interest in studying in universities  has become weapon against us

Sorry for digression but if share holders from companies like OZL do not wake up and Government starts(by owning major share holding first) by challenging the short time operators Australia will be sold off for business to China and India.


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## bigdog

share price up today after trade resumed

high of  	0.73

OZL   	0.685  	  +0.135   	  +24.55%   	high of  	0.73  		87,347,308 shares  	$61,582,828  @	17-Feb 10:32:47 AM


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## YELNATS

I can't disagree with any of today's postings re OZL.

I certainly have been burnt with Allco and also Babcock & Brown, but it's with OZL that I am most shocked and disappointed at how they've performed over the last 6 months.

Like many I guess, I was sucked in by their propaganda especially after the OXR-ZFX merger and believed their hype that they were becoming a truly great Aussie world player. 

Maybe the fact that a number of their assets are located outside Australia may make the federal government's approval of the Chinese deal a little easier.

But most of all I'm shocked at the disappointing offer of just 82.5 cents which OZL seems to have gratefully grabbed with both hands.


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## YELNATS

Currently trading at around 70c seems to indicate the market has some scepticism that the deal will go through, possibly because of government non-approval, plus lack of belief that a better rival bid may emerge.


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## YELNATS

Nearly 150 million shares traded so far today, or 5% of issued shares. 

Could it be that once the more nervous nellies have offloaded their shares, the price may improve somewhat over the next few days.


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## bigdog

IMO, I predict that there will another takeover offer that perhaps involves ZFX in the background!!

OZL would be a cheap buy!

Current share price 67 cents at  12:58 PM


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## YELNATS

bigdog said:


> IMO, I predict that there will another takeover offer that perhaps involves ZFX in the background!!
> 
> OZL would be a cheap buy!
> 
> Current share price 67 cents at  12:58 PM





But how could that be, ZFX was made defunct by the OXR-ZFX merger? Do you know something we don't know?


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## panikhide

Maybe Owen Hegarty will buy OZL. That $8mil golden handshake that could have been better used to pay down debt could be used as a down payment.


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## bigdog

YELNATS said:


> But how could that be, ZFX was made defunct by the OXR-ZFX merger? Do you know something we don't know?




I no nothing about what will or is to happen.

I am just guessing that there will be further offers because the offer IMO was low compared to the $12 billion value last year.

OZL have recommended that shareholders accept this low offer.

I think of the Flight Centre management takeover.


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## bigdog

http://blog.mdsfinancial.com.au/200...ver-–-what-will-the-government-be-looking-at/

OZ Minerals takeover – what will the government be looking at?
February 17th, 2009
Goto comments Leave a comment

Chinese state-owned Minmetals has announced a $2.6 billion takeover offer for OZ Minerals.

Like the BHP – Chinalco deal, this will require federal government approval, so what are the considerations under review?

    * Unlike the Rio deal, this would be a full takeover

    * OZ is presenting the deal as a lifeline, and the only feasible alternative to receivership and the resulting implications for jobs, shareholder losses and growth projects

    * The strategic importance of copper and zinc to Australia, arguably less important than the iron-ore Rio hopes to sell off

    * The merits of the deal itself are complicated by external economic conditions

    * National interest must be balanced with potential for a long-term strategic partnership with China

Traders and investors can again join in the action with OZ resuming trading today, after a halt called in November. Shares jumped up 29% this morning.


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## bigdog

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25067000-36418,00.html?from=public_rss

This article states in the last paragraph that:

*"Former Oxiana founder Owen Hegarty has been rumoured to be interested in the Martabe mine."*


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## Prospector

ZFX are gone; ie no longer exists.  So nothing in the pipeline there.  Maybe Rudd could give another stimulus package and buy OZL.


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## gfresh

As was stated in an article today, the offer at least puts a base value on the assets. Now others can assess their positions and place counter-offers if they so wish. In saying this, none have proceeded on any firm offers before this attempt, so you would wonder why they would jump out now... but you never know. 

You'd also wonder why they'd need to beat 82.5c/share as well, when it seems right now they can grab large chunks of the co the 60's..


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## frogfuzz

panikhide: Is that before or after they grant themselves golden handshakes for "a job well done"

As a shareholder of Oz, I will be voting against this takeover. Why should I follow AM and his "management" "team" (sometimes I think their team is themselves: not shareholders)? 

Under their stewardship (if you can call it that), I have watched my investment decline by around 85% (thanks to some “creative accounting”). And they now tell me this is a good deal and now I should vote for it? 

If I knew that they'd be losing their jobs with no golden handshakes, well it would be tempting to vote for it - but hey - after losing tens of thousands of dollars already, in a company that supposedly had 1.2bill in the bank only a few months ago.......well what’s a few more thousand if it goes belly up? 

Besides, I believe that BHP mines are close to Oz Minerals. Oz should play brinkmanship with this takeover. If Oz gets liquidated, their mines will be sold off (as I've said already, many ZFX shareholders like myself have already lost big time, what's the big deal about losing the last 15%?), thereby devaluing BHP. It's not in BHP's interests, is it? Oz Minerals management have about as much spine as a dead squid. Considering the millions that they've paid themselves you'd think they'd be a bit more "hard headed" when it comes to wheeling and dealing.

What happens to the proceeds of the gold mines they are flogging off (just as gold is about to take off thanks to the USA money printing machine)? I cannot believe the incompetence of this management. They make General Motors look like professionals.


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## frogfuzz

Prospector: I think KRudd gets more excited over Pink Bats than the ownership of Australian Mines. I'm sure Bob Brown and Peter Garret do also.

Besides: Pink Bats and Chinese ownership of our best mineral assets will:

a) Save the Planet from "man made" Global warming (after all; the Chinese are allowed to keep polluting, so really, they should own all our best mines. After all, if we burn the coal etc it will contribute to GW. If it's burnt in China it's OK.)

b) Get KRudd a cushy job after his time in politics (probably as a lobbyist for a Chinese State owned mineral company, lobbying his ALP mates for more Chinese ownership of Australian assets, and then getting paid big bonuses - see Con Scacca (sp) and Terry MacKenroth in QLD) 

No wonder the Chinese government was happy at his election.


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## bigdog

frogfuzz said:


> Prospector: I think KRudd gets more excited over Pink Bats than the ownership of Australian Mines. I'm sure Bob Brown and Peter Garret do also..





The GREENS (Bob Brown) say of the offer:

http://greensmps.org.au/content/med...ctatorship-control-australian-resources—brown

*Swan should avoid Chinese dictatorship control of Australian resources—Brown*
Media Release | Spokesperson Bob Brown
Tuesday 17th February 2009, 1:33pm

The Federal Treasurer should disallow two massive bids by China's military dictatorship for Australian mineral resource companies, Australian Greens Leader Bob Brown said today.

"There is no way the Communist autocrats in Beijing would allow an Australian company to buy control of an equivalent Chinese resource," Senator Brown said.

"It is instructive to look at how they have handled Tibet and its mineral wealth-the Tibetans are the poorest people under Beijing's control.

"Both Rio Tinto and Oz Minerals are floundering but the Australian mineral resources they control will not disappear if these companies do. It is hazardous for our open and democratic nation to have the Beijing dictatorship, which forcefully suppresses democracies, take control of these companies and our resources," Senator Brown added.

"In both cases, the least that should happen is for Mr Swan to refer the decisions to a full parliamentary debate and vote.

For further information, please contact Ebony Bennett 0409 164 603


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## skc

200 million shares traded and there are still over 75 million on the sell side of market depth. Although buyers are slowly emerging (now up to 10m).

Couldn't help but think there will be a few twists and turns in this story yet. 

Can anyone explain why the banks would decide not to offer a loan extension given the takeover offer? Doesn't it mean the debt will be owed by the Chinese company and essentially backed by the Chinese government? Or is the debt non-recourse at the mine / asset level so the banks can still lose out?

Discl: went long this morning.


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## frogfuzz

"Both Rio Tinto and Oz Minerals are floundering but the Australian mineral resources they control will not disappear if these companies do"

Is Bob Brown really concerned about the mines (and Aussie jobs) and prosperity, or is he more concerned that China may be pulling the strings? In one breath he says, 

"mineral resources they control will not disappear if these companies do"

So clearly Bob Brown is against Chinese ownership. That's a good thing. But he also couldn't give a rats if the miners go broke. Yet he is happy to see billions of dollars wasted on Pink Bats. 

Pink Bats or Australian mining. Which one do you think generates the most wealth (both jobs, equity, and income stream for the longer term)? Clearly  Brown thinks Pink Bats are the better alternative.


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## johenmo

frogfuzz said:


> Pink Bats or Australian mining. Which one do you think generates the most wealth (both jobs, equity, and income stream for the longer term)? Clearly  Brown thinks Pink Bats are the better alternative.




Pink batts probably buy more votes.  Cynical outlook but closer to the truth than we'd care to admit. Should sell my OZl shares but there aren't many so I'll watch it over the next few days.


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## thunderer

While all the governments in the world are backing their strategical important companies, only Australian government can sit there and proudly and naively   vaunting its market economy and legal system. 
But shame on that we can't punish those stupid managers but let share holders bare all the loss. 
As a share holder, of course I don't want to lose my money. But OZL share shouldn't be so cheap anyway. 
But why none of those have a say say nothing, none of those have power want to help? 
I guess most of them have another passport and they don't really care.If Australia run out of resource and turn into a third world country, they can still send their kids to US or Europe.


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## Bobby

I got caught holding OZL from the past & didn't sell today , it amused me to see the panic as the sheep sold off  
Come on BHP " just show an interest before China grabs more of our future wealth


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## bigdog

When Minmetals gains control, I could well imagine Minmetals undercutting BHP and RIO pricing per orders from Beijing!

OZL is the third largest miner in Aust; is this correct?

I got caught holding OZL from the past.


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## thunderer

If BHP doesn't help OZL today, I bet it will be the next big mining company to sell big stake to China. 
When China can get iron ore from Rio and minerals from OZL, what else does it need from BHP if it's not owned by China?


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## oldblue

thunderer said:


> If BHP doesn't help OZL today, I bet it will be the next big mining company to sell big stake to China.
> When China can get iron ore from Rio and minerals from OZL, what else does it need from BHP if it's not owned by China?




Not just a " big chunk".
The proposal is for Minmetal to buy the entire company.

I hold a few OZL but don't hold out much hope that BHP will ride to the rescue.


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## gfresh

Doesn't seem like anybody even believes the Minmetals offer will go through.. down to 57c, or some 31% less than the offer price


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## vincent191

There is an article in the newspaper that cast doubt on Minmetals being able to come up with the funds. Guess, we will have to wait until more details become available.
I guess the whole deal is highly conditional.


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## oldblue

I doubt whether funding will be a problem.
Minmetals is a state organisation and funds will be available if all the other pieces, investment and political, fall into place.


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## Bolivia

At 56c alot of risk to this deal is being priced in. Is this a fair risk premium or not? IMHO alot of the selling down to these levels is a result of a) Margin lenders exiting en masse at any price and b) Existing shareholders taking their money and running. 

So who will prove to be right?

Probably the most importent hurdle for this deal to be done, at least in the short term, is the banks agreeing to extend their deadline on refinancing. Why wouldn't they extend? 
The other short term issue is Due Diligence. I know the management at OZ has been very questionable, but surely they wouldn't leave any skeletons for Minmetals to find and jeopardize the deal?

Assuming due diligence is OK and the banks extend, the only real hurdle is the FIRB. OZ does not really own any nationally significant assets. PH is a big project but not a national icon. So I can't see why the gov would have any issues.

Bottom line - has the share price factored in too much risk? IMO I think so. But am I willing to take the punt.... that is what I'm still debating!

Good luck to all that buy here.


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## Mofra

frogfuzz said:


> "Both Rio Tinto and Oz Minerals are floundering but the Australian mineral resources they control will not disappear if these companies do"



Australia would lose access to the O/S assets though.

FWIW Early yesterday the March 80c OZL45 calls opened at 6c and traded at 4.5c for a decent amount of time (2c premium to the takeover)- not sure if some ETO goober had their Black-Scholes goggles on or the market was being overly optimistic, but it's nice to find a little scalping oppy here and there


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## TheAbyss

Has anyone heard anything about an offer for Matarbe? Apparently if OZl sell Matarbe the Minmetals offer gets increased accordingly due to the increased cash on hand.

Basing this purely on a Sky Business item this morning so could be totally unfounded rumour. A small article here.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/oz-minerals-asset-sale-imminent-20090219-8cla.html

A number of issues at hand in my view,

*Negatives*

1. Banks need to defer there credit requirements on teh 27th of Feb
2. FIRB approval required
3. A lot of instos are bailing out while they can get something back on their investments hence the massive oversupply of sellers

*Positives*

1. Minmetals cash offer of 82.5 cents per share
2. Matarbe sale provides additional value
3. Surely the banks would extend terms on the basis of a cash opffer being on the table gioven Minmetals will assume all responsibility for the debt which they have stated in their offer document
4. FIRB approval should be approved on the bassis that if they dont the company goes into admninistration and may not resurface. At least OZl remains in situ as an employer and tax payer.
5. Minmetals have stated that they have the cash to complete the purchase via cash on hand and pre approved funds
6. What if BHP decide they dont like china circling their competitors whioch will reduce there market opportunities?

Any input would be welcome as there will be other positives and negatives i have not listed. Too late for me as i have bought in however am interested in thoughts.

Cheers


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## sammy84

At 65c there is a potential to make 27% if the deal go's through. I am yet to find a reason to believe that the deal wont be passed. What are peoples concerns


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## prawn_86

sammy84 said:


> At 65c there is a potential to make 27% if the deal go's through. I am yet to find a reason to believe that the deal wont be passed. What are peoples concerns




The fact that a lot of media and politicians are putting pressure on the FIRB to not accept the deal. They dont want Aus assets all going to the chinese


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## sammy84

Hey Prawn

I can understand the resistance to the RIO deal, but OZL is another story. Surely anyone opposed to it will accept realities that either this deal gets passed or thousands more are out of job, not to mention the mum and dad shareholders who stand to lose money...


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## sammy84

Does anyone out there know the timetable of the OZL and Minmetals deal or where I can find it? 

Sammy


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## UMike

sammy84 said:


> Hey Prawn
> 
> I can understand the resistance to the RIO deal, but OZL is another story. Surely anyone opposed to it will accept realities that either this deal gets passed or thousands more are out of job, not to mention the mum and dad shareholders who stand to lose money...



There wasn't to much concern over the mums and dads that invested in ABC.

Politics .... Hard to judge when and what they care about


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## jackson8

sammy84 said:


> Does anyone out there know the timetable of the OZL and Minmetals deal or where I can find it?
> 
> Sammy




this is part of an article distributed over the reuturs network which may answer some of your queries

Embattled Australian miner OZ Minerals is believed to be close to agreeing to the sale of two projects, which should allow the company to receive an extension from its lenders. The extension would allow OZ to put a proposed A$3.7 billion takeover deal from China's Minmetals to shareholders in May. The two projects, the Martabe gold project in Indonesia and the Golden Grove mine in Western Australia, are expected to provide OZ with more than A$425 million.

here is the link to the article
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/02/19/afx6073005.html


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## gfresh

The timetable is in the initial offer presentation. Shareholder payment would be received June if the deal were to proceed. Next week will be quite crucial -- Monday is when the dd by Minmetals is to be decided, Friday is the original funding deadline for the financiers.

There is always the chance the financiers could block the deal if they thought there was any way for them to profit directly by the assets falling into their hands. Can't really put that past any of the banks.   

For the government to block the deal, they would really have to put up or shutup.. in other words, put up debt financing to keep OZL operating in Australia (Rudd bank?), or let it go through to the Chinese. FIRB blocking the deal would effectively be administration for OZL and the instant loss of jobs due to a causal decision, a political hot potato.


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## TheAbyss

sammy84 said:


> Does anyone out there know the timetable of the OZL and Minmetals deal or where I can find it?
> 
> Sammy




I have extracted out of their market release.

I can't see FIRB saying no as the choices are simple, administration or a working entity employing australians and paying taxes. 

Sure, profits lost but that isnt in their baliwick based on past FIRB decisions. The FIRB havent blocked a deal for a very long time (The last time it blocked a bid was Royal Dutch Shell's tilt at Woodside in 2001 - Information taken from this article, http://business.smh.com.au/business/rudds-china-puzzle-20080430-29si.html).


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## sammy84

Thanks Abyss, thats exactly what I was looking for. 

The asset sales now look promosing given that OZ is no longer in a fire sale situation. This in turn should increase the offer from minmetals. I guess the only draw back from my point of view is the long time frame in which the deal is being completed. Alot can happen in that time and also the opportunity costs needs to be considered. How are you approaching this Abyss?


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## TheAbyss

I have made my decision and got in for a few and added more this afternoon.

Real concern to me is the Due Diligence and the banks. I can see enough reason to have a dip but not too heavily.

Tough to get a handle on because of the bias towards sellers (mainly who are looking to cut their losses and get out ).

Normally i would watch the sellers queue and if it swells then bail as there is usually fire beneath the smoke. Here it is a real punt with an upside of 25-40% and a downside of 100% loss.

Each to their own.


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## Eloise

Apparently it has been confirmed Golden Grove has been sold, just waiting on the official announcement of who and who the take over begins..


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## Mofra

Eloise said:


> Apparently it has been confirmed Golden Grove has been sold, just waiting on the official announcement of who and who the take over begins..



That's one of the first conditions of an extension of credit. Good short term news (in terms of survival), however does this have on the t/o offer?


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## TheAbyss

Due diligence completed as per todays announcement Next step is the banks extending on the 27th which is the only real hurdle as far as i can see.


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## Pager

Didn'T want to buy the stock in light of the banks decision but March 70 cent options looked good so bought 6 at 3 cents per contract, total outlay is $180.

If the banks approve everything then could well see it bounce up to near the offer price IMO at around 80 cents, if not well it could be curtains


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## Mofra

Pager said:


> Didn'T want to buy the stock in light of the banks decision but March 70 cent options looked good so bought 6 at 3 cents per contract, total outlay is $180.
> 
> If the banks approve everything then could well see it bounce up to near the offer price IMO at around 80 cents, if not well it could be curtains



Small outlay in dollar terms, however formal acceptance of the scheme of arrangement is due in May; hopefully you get a bounce prior to 26/03


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## golfmos123

Interesting all or nothing type play almost in the offering.

Upside - buy this week around 58c.  If banks agree to extend credit timelines, I'd expect some sort of bounce as the market begins to think it is going to get 82.5c from Minmetals.

Downside - no credit extension might mean receivership and getting very little back later.

Heads or tails anyone?????


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## GumbyLearner

golfmos123 said:


> Interesting all or nothing type play almost in the offering.
> 
> Upside - buy this week around 58c.  If banks agree to extend credit timelines, I'd expect some sort of bounce as the market begins to think it is going to get 82.5c from Minmetals.
> 
> Downside - no credit extension might mean receivership and getting very little back later.
> 
> Heads or tails anyone?????




It goes to ground or swanny says yes?

No idea...but this isn't no or yes! Swanny thumbs down or up ? No idea!


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## Iron Man

thanks guys for a excellent thread.

Just got on the OZL story now lol.

IMO - just buy with tight stops. either it goes or your out. Looks good for me to get in at these prices. It depends on how things unfold with the announcements. eg No and straight in to the can or no and limbo time to get out. 

Where do I get options on this Commsec?

That would be the safe way.


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## skc

Tom Elliot wrote on Eureka Report that he's not punting on this one, on the grounds that he doesn't like the political risks involved. Tom is a guy who made a living out of takeover plays so it's not the most positive sign. 

You might need a login to read the article here.
http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/...Start=1&Count=20&type=eureka&category=&Click=

*Ironman* - I had a long last week and got stopped out nice and quick using a tight stop. ~5c loss for me. This is one punt where you must be prepared to lose it all I think. Because the next announcement / trading halt may see it spike up or never trade again.

BTW, that is a picture of storm trooper, not Iron Man.


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## jackson8

Iron Man said:


> thanks guys for a excellent thread.
> 
> Just got on the OZL story now lol.
> 
> IMO - just buy with tight stops. either it goes or your out. Looks good for me to get in at these prices. It depends on how things unfold with the announcements. eg No and straight in to the can or no and limbo time to get out.
> 
> Where do I get options on this Commsec?
> 
> That would be the safe way.





a tight stop isnt going to help you if it goes into a trading halt and never comes out again

with commsec have you opened up an options account with them

here is an interesting article
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2191476/


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## Pager

Down about 20% this morning 

Glad i went for the options, had i bought 6000 i would be down over $1000, the options I'm down $100, if the banks say yes (due the end of this week) and the FIRB approve the deal which is due in March then there is still hope for a bounce up to or near the offer price.

Don'T look good though if the SP is any indication


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## AbundantIncome

Pager said:


> Down about 20% this morning
> 
> Glad i went for the options, had i bought 6000 i would be down over $1000, the options I'm down $100, if the banks say yes (due the end of this week) and the FIRB approve the deal which is due in March then there is still hope for a bounce up to or near the offer price.
> 
> Don'T look good though if the SP is any indication




I got a pretty tight stop loss, so glad I did. Still a few hundred bucks loss though. But at least I can pick myself up and restart. Cannot imagine, the other way around... get stuck and cannot do anything with it any longer ... phewwwwwwwwwwww


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## Sean K

Any hints as to why it's trading at such a discount to the offer of 82c?

Punters assuming that its not going to go through?

If not, surely it still puts an approximate price on the company?

Worth a punt maybe?


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## gfresh

Going on the share price movement today, and for it to dip that far below it's halt price of 55c.. would seem it's not too likely. I'm sure some have a pretty good idea which way it's heading, but that's not us regular plebs who can only go on price and rumours. 

I'm out to preserve at least something  - too much risk, I don't trust banks to do anything other than which benefits them the most. May possibly buy in next week if things look different - I'm sure it will still be at a discount with current sentiment, even if the financiers agree for an extension.


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## AbundantIncome

I rather trade on technical ... fundamental is too volatile and too extreme to my liking .... try to get away from rumours etc like this ... just not worth it ... like a gamble then ...

If not passed by the government and banks assistance, you could lose the lot. Government, how well they receive foreign ownership. Logic would dictate that they would go with letting the assets owned by local even though they are separated. Banks, they are there to make monies. Let it pass through, they might get some of their dollars back.

The worst ever merger in the world I think !!! Whoever thinks of this type of arrangement must be very poor in spirit indeed ! They could have seen the downfall from such arrangement ? I am sure they would have been much better off before the merger ...





So, two risks at play ... 

Wait and see ...



gfresh said:


> Going on the share price movement today, and for it to dip that far below it's halt price of 55c.. would seem it's not too likely. I'm sure some have a pretty good idea which way it's heading, but that's not us regular plebs who can only go on price and rumours.
> 
> I'm out to preserve at least something  - too much risk, I don't trust banks to do anything other than which benefits them the most. May possibly buy in next week if things look different - I'm sure it will still be at a discount with current sentiment, even if the financiers agree for an extension.


----------



## skc

kennas said:


> Any hints as to why it's trading at such a discount to the offer of 82c?
> 
> Punters assuming that its not going to go through?
> 
> If not, surely it still puts an approximate price on the company?
> 
> Worth a punt maybe?




Would have been a good punt at ~40c. You get better than 50-50 odds that way. The concern is that foreign banks will pull the plug as they want their money back nice and quick. Hard to imagine but anything goes in the world of GFC. Can't Minmetal simply extend to OZL a bridging loan or something to tie them over the next few months? That way the only roadblock left is the FIRB approval which is not a small risk in itself.


----------



## Bolivia

Whats actually changed from a few days ago?

IMO there is no downside, for the banks, in extending the loan facility. Interest can still be paid in the extension period by Oz Minerals. And even if the deal falls through, the banks would still have to embark on a fire sale of assets, just three months later. Would the price they get 3 months from now be that different. The assets that Oz minerals have would, even in a fire sale, well and truly cover the banks debt. Arguably there might even be residual money left for shareholders.

So why the big change in sentiment today?

There has been a few analysts writing negative reports re the deal. But what evidence is that based on? Its just pure hypotheticals.

Surely with the deal on the table, and Min metals having good relationships with at least 2 of Oz minerals syndicate banks, the chance of getting a bank extension would be good. 

WRT the FIRB - Oz minerals assets are not nationally strategic. If the government rejects the deal, Australia will lose enormous amounts of foreign investment. Just what our economy will need over the next few years.

So, what to do? I agree that buying now is a risk but just how much? At 40c you have 100% upside and 100% downside. Has it really boiled down to just a coin flip?


----------



## nunthewiser

kennas said:


> Any hints as to why it's trading at such a discount to the offer of 82c?
> 
> Punters assuming that its not going to go through?
> 
> If not, surely it still puts an approximate price on the company?
> 
> Worth a punt maybe?




kennas ...... from chatroom


[milothedog] 10:17 am: OZ Minerals Ltd (ASX:OZL) looks increasingly unlikely to meet its deadline to 
refinance about A$1.2 billion (US$771 million) in debt by Friday, which could see the ailing miner placed into 
administration next week, analysts say.
******[milothedog] 10:17 am: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/2191476/


also thinks there is some MAJOR doubt EVEN if refinancing deadline extention that the punters coming to grips with the fact that the feds may NOT let a full chinese takeover go through because of the ramifications it will produce 

im not touchin it 

one of those fire breathing acts m8 

definately a quid to be made maybe but not for this chook


----------



## Sean K

Probably was a quick trade option but wouldn't want to get caught without a chair if it goes into a halt.


1055 [Dow Jones] OZ Minerals (OZL.AU) down 12.5 cents, or 21%, at 46 cents, hits record low of 40 cents amid concern that it may be unable to meet deadline to refinance A$1.2 billion of debt by Friday. If that happens, Minmetals takeover offer could fall over, resulting in OZL being placed in administration. OZL not immediately available to comment. (DWR) 

1110 [Dow Jones] OZ Minerals' (OZL.AU) share price fall this morning could be explained by a squaring of long positions by margin lenders, as a few have decided not to support such positions for their retail customers, according to a market participant who didn't want to be named. So share fall is more technical than due to any renewed speculation on OZ's ability - or not - to arrange debt extension. Last down 21% or 12.5 Australian cents to 46 Australian cents. (ILM)


----------



## Taltan

0.495 looks like money for jam. Imagine the employee/shareholder backlash if the govt refused the bid? Even this govt would surely not allow that whilst they are trying to pump $42bn in. Only other risk is the banks but the bid looks generous enough to surely cover that, also whats to stop BHP stepping in at less than 82c? Having said all that I'm holding off cause I don't have the inside information. As per usual if it looks to good to be true it probably is


----------



## nunthewiser

Taltan said:


> 0.495 looks like money for jam. Imagine the employee/shareholder backlash if the govt refused the bid? Even this govt would surely not allow that whilst they are trying to pump $42bn in. Only other risk is the banks but the bid looks generous enough to surely cover that, also whats to stop BHP stepping in at less than 82c? Having said all that I'm holding off cause I don't have the inside information. As per usual if it looks to good to be true it probably is




whats to stop the predators offering the bankers individual bids for individual assets to cover the debt ...... knows what i,d be doing personally , why buy the whole company debt included when one may be able to buy the individual assets one wants at the debt cost instead 

intresting times for this co .. even if the banks extend deadlines , it dont mean the feds will let ANY full foreighn takeovers through


----------



## Iron Man

IMHO - its bankers first and women and children last. It makes more sense to close it down and sell the parts to the highest bidders. The chinese while being nice to come forward have probably given the bankers a better reason to cash in as they have a ready made buyer. Shareholders lose but bankers win   "Its good to be the bank " and remember the golden rule -those with the gold make the rules.


----------



## TheAbyss

Iron Man said:


> IMHO - its bankers first and women and children last. It makes more sense to close it down and sell the parts to the highest bidders. The chinese while being nice to come forward have probably given the bankers a better reason to cash in as they have a ready made buyer. Shareholders lose but bankers win   "Its good to be the bank " and remember the golden rule -those with the gold make the rules.




Are you saying that you believe the banks want to foreclose on OZ to get their money and based on this they will deny an extension to OZ in order for them to have title on the assets and sell them to Minmetals rather than grant a few months and be paid in full? Surely it would be better to delay a few months rather than a drawn out administation process and the risk of a fire sale?

Beyond belief to me if that was your intent.

Surely an operational mine has more value than a hole in the ground on care and maintenance? 

Notwithstanding the banks are assured of receiving payment in full including all interests and charges if they grant an extension rather than foreclose. If nothing else they will save a few months by an amicable solution and riosk receiving a low ball bid in a firesale. That isnt to say teh Minmetals bid isnt low ball either but that is another story.


----------



## dandyjac

THEABYSS : I agree it is in the banks interest to let the deal that OZ have put together go through, if they put the company into receivership it would take just as long for a sale to go through by selling  the individual assets not to mention if they wanted to stitch Oz up they could have done it over the past 3 months


----------



## noco

With the Prominent Hill Operations coming on line and having delivered its first copper/gold concenrate, with first revenue to begin to accrue at the end of Q1 2009 (info from ComSec) surely the bank would take this into consideration  and show some compassion, particularly for us share holders.

The Rudd Government has been very conspicuous by their silence.

How many will be out of work should OZ close their doors?


----------



## dmagnus

Im betting on it going thru

Administration is the last resort, it is long and drawn out and if there is another option it will get taken.

That is an opinion based on experience.

That said, there are international banks in the syndicate, who knows if they give fk!


----------



## rnguyen

OZ Minerals, has won an extension on a debt repayment due on Friday to March 31.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/oz-minerals-secures-debt-extension-20090227-8jl2.html

Seat & wait I guess!


----------



## sammy84

Not entirely the result I was hoping for. I don't understand a month extension for a takeover which is due to be completed till may/june. Is this a protection mechanism by the banks in case the takeover doesn't get approval?


----------



## TheAbyss

TheAbyss said:


> Has anyone heard anything about an offer for Matarbe? Apparently if OZl sell Matarbe the Minmetals offer gets increased accordingly due to the increased cash on hand.
> 
> Basing this purely on a Sky Business item this morning so could be totally unfounded rumour. A small article here.
> 
> http://business.theage.com.au/business/oz-minerals-asset-sale-imminent-20090219-8cla.html
> 
> A number of issues at hand in my view,
> 
> *Negatives*
> 
> 1. Banks need to defer there credit requirements on teh 27th of Feb
> 2. FIRB approval required
> 3. A lot of instos are bailing out while they can get something back on their investments hence the massive oversupply of sellers
> 
> *Positives*
> 
> 1. Minmetals cash offer of 82.5 cents per share
> 2. Matarbe sale provides additional value
> 3. Surely the banks would extend terms on the basis of a cash opffer being on the table gioven Minmetals will assume all responsibility for the debt which they have stated in their offer document
> 4. FIRB approval should be approved on the bassis that if they dont the company goes into admninistration and may not resurface. At least OZl remains in situ as an employer and tax payer.
> 5. Minmetals have stated that they have the cash to complete the purchase via cash on hand and pre approved funds
> 6. What if BHP decide they dont like china circling their competitors whioch will reduce there market opportunities?
> 
> Any input would be welcome as there will be other positives and negatives i have not listed. Too late for me as i have bought in however am interested in thoughts.
> 
> Cheers




Some good progress to date.

*Negatives*

1. Banks need to defer there credit requirements on teh 27th of Feb - Completed. Only hurdle left is the FIRB and China approvals as the extension grant infers that the banks are happy with Minmetals assuming responsibility of debt. I am assuming shareholder approval also.
2. FIRB approval required -Yet to see a reason why approval wont be granted as these assets are tier two and not against the national interests (although the whole foreign investment process should be reviewed as we will all pay a price for this in time but thats another topic). Rio is a different story and may not get across the line but this will imo
3. A lot of instos are bailing out while they can get something back on their investments hence the massive oversupply of sellers. Buyers sellers ratio has improved dramatically.

*Positives*

1. Minmetals cash offer of 82.5 cents per share
2. Matarbe sale provides additional value - No sale news. May start to happen now that the debt issue has been cleared. This is on the basis that any potential bidders may have been biding their time on the chance a firesale may have been caused by a bank refusing to extend. Any bidder will now need to make an on market bid
3. Surely the banks would extend terms on the basis of a cash opffer being on the table gioven Minmetals will assume all responsibility for the debt which they have stated in their offer document - Correct
4. FIRB approval should be approved on the basis that if they dont the company goes into admninistration and may not resurface. At least OZl remains in situ as an employer and tax payer. - We shall see
5. Minmetals have stated that they have the cash to complete the purchase via cash on hand and pre approved funds- And have stated they will refinance the $1.2 billion debt which is why the banks extended. A further two weeks extension will be required for paperwork etc as outlined by Oz. Call it a bridging loan where time is the product.
6. What if BHP decide they dont like china circling their competitors which will reduce there market opportunities? - Yet to be seen however now that the finance question is out of the wy the odds have shortened although i am thnking BHP are hopeful of the FIRB saying no to the Rio Chinalco deal and picking up some Rio assets on the cheap.

All in all this is a lot closer to fruition than it was on monday and a lot of the risk has been removed hence the 25% SP increase since wednesday.


----------



## TheAbyss

Further to the above after reading the report and some press OZ have made good progress on thje sale of Martabe and Golden Grove. Both deals done within a week.

Positive news for holders will be if the gross sale price is above $425 m Minmetals will increase their 82.5 cents per share offer.

Subject to FIRB and shareholder approvals.


----------



## bigdog

Being a OZL shareholder; today OZL emailed me:

Dear Shareholder

*OZ Minerals 2008 Full Year Financial Results *

OZ Minerals today released its full year financial results. It was also pleased to announce that its financiers have provided approval of an interim extension to its debt facilities to 31 March 2009, as part of the Minmetals transaction approvals, subject to documentation.

Key points from the announcement were: 

    * Full year revenue of $1,218.4 million.

    * Net loss after tax, before write-downs and other adjustments was $66.4 million. 

    * Revenues from individual operations were lower due mainly to significant falls in commodity prices.

    * Results were impacted by a number of one-off costs associated with the merger of Oxiana and Zinifex, restructuring costs and significant impairment of assets and other asset write-downs.

    * After these post tax asset write-downs of $2,309.8 million including post tax one off costs of $265.5 million the net loss after tax was $2,484.9 million.

    * 2008 production targets largely achieved at operations.

    * Operating cash costs of all operations remain competitive.

    * Significant reduction in capital and operating costs for 2009.

    * Refinancing solutions advancing with announcement of the recommended offer by China Minmetals.

    * OZ Minerals’ financiers have provided approval of an interim extension of its debt facilities to 31 March 2009 subject to documentation.

    * No final dividend declared as a result of lower earnings in order to conserve cash.


----------



## bigdog

*ABC Inside Business Sunday Feb 22, 2009

Andrew Michelmore joins Inside Business*

Alan Kohler is a great market commentator.

http://abc.com.au/news/video/2009/02/22/2498034.htm
*watch video interview*

http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2007/s2498034.htm
*read script of interview below*

ALAN KOHLER, PRESENTER: Well to put some perspective on China's current appetite for cheap commodities businesses this week's $2.6 billion bid for debt stricken Oz Minerals was only a small part of the $80 billion investments China has committed to around the world in the past 10 days. The all cash bid for the nation's third biggest diversified miner is a startling capitulation for a company which when put together only nine months ago was valued at almost $12 billion. Had $2 billion in cash and a strong portfolio of metal reserves.

I spoke to Oz Minerals chief Andrew Michelmore earlier this week.

Well Andrew Michelmore is it fair to say that this is Min Metals or bust? That if this deal doesn't go through OZ Minerals is in receivership?

ANDREW MICHELMORE, CEO, OZ MINERALS: Alan, absolutely at this point in time having stared down the barrel of receivership or voluntary administration at least three times in the last few months, this is the best outcome for our shareholders.

ALAN KOHLER: You mean the only outcome?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Well we've looked at all options of how we can do it and they are very complex, we have to replace effectively $1.1 billion minimum of debt through sales through raising some funding through equity through commodity link things, all very complex and you have to put them all together in the one place at the one time to be able to deliver it.

ALAN KOHLER: And you still need the banks to extend don't you

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Absolutely in all cases.

ALAN KOHLER: Are you confident that they will?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Logic says this is a fantastic outcome for them it solves their problem, yes they should extend.

ALAN KOHLER: But have they shown so far that they will?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Look I think some of them, particularly the offshore banks, are required to get those funds home as soon as possible, they have been told, pull it back, don't care what it means, pull it back and I think that's where the difficulty will come. It won't be easy but again logic says this guarantees you an outcome, you get all your cash back and with a company that has got the funds to do it, it's not subject to financing and so yes logic says you should do it.

ALAN KOHLER: And you put the company on the market effectively a while ago, how many potential buyers kicked the tyres?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: We had lots of buyers kicking tyres of individual assets, they thought it was a fire sale pick up absolute bargains but we had to raise a certain amount of money, in terms of looking at the whole company, we've had people looking at bits of equity in the company and that's where Min Mets started they look at taking a placement; a cornerstone placement and as they did more and more due diligence they said no actually we want the lot, so this is the only one that has come for the lot.

ALAN KOHLER: And as and you reflect on what's happened here in the past sort of 12 months of roller coaster riding that you've been through, do you wish you hadn't bought Allegiance Mining?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Oh gee if I had my time over again you would say no way, if I knew that the metal prices were going to be down at this level, you know our long term metal prices for nickel was at least $7.50 not sitting at the levels like this, no there's no way you could justify Allegiance at the moment.

ALAN KOHLER: But about nine months after you paid 55 per cent premium for Allegiance you closed its main operation Avebury Mine in Tasmania saying that it wasn't profitable, I mean that's incredible destruction of value isn't it?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Look I think from September into October, November the amazing drop, the speed with which commodity prices dropped, the view on the outlook of those commodities going forward totally changed the long term view and the instantaneous prices, copper's off 68 per cent, zinc fell another 44 per cent, nickel came off around 60 per cent as well and more importantly the whole view of the confidence going forward for those commodities disappeared. That was the basis, the long term basis going forward in demand for the nickel evaporated.

ALAN KOHLER: I mean I don't want to dwell on Allegiance, that was your decision the Zinifex Oxiana merger had been announced at that point but you didn't you decided to go ahead and buy Allegiance?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: I was certainly CEO as that decision had been made, I started in February the decision had been made in December...

ALAN KOHLER: So you did inherit the decision?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: The decision was made in December and I was aware of that decision being made through that period, I took up as CEO the 1st of February but that information being provided to me, everything looked sensible, that was a sensible investment.

ALAN KOHLER: Shareholders presumably would say well that's what we pay CEO's and boards for is to ok, so things changed, it was, obviously the entire world has changed, but you pay people to make decision that are correct at the right time not to overpay for assets at the top of the cycle?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Your comment there, correct at the right time and you can only go with the information you have at the time so decisions you are making now have to be judged in the circumstances we have now and the outlook, decisions made back then...

ALAN KOHLER: So that deal probably ate about half the cash that was in the company, close to half, where did the rest go?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Yes when we merged the company we had about $900 million of cash on the books we paid $150 to $160 million on dividends, we've paid about $250 million on Prominent Hill on completing, just in that period, the construction of that project, we've got a large investment in the cut back at Century so key components, and we've also invested in Martarbe and Sepon expansion so it was in all the expansion in the capital expenditure sides of the business which was our platform, it was putting the two together, provided the projects on one side and the cash to be able to finance that growth.

That all changed in October, the change from September to October in terms of expected revenue in the following year was over a billion dollars, that is unbelievable to happen in such a short period of time.

ALAN KOHLER: In fact it seems from the outside to be one of the great corporate tragedies this; for a company to go in nine months from about $4 a share price and having a whole lot of money in the bank to broke, it is amazing.

ANDREW MICHELMORE: It is amazing and the issue was that our commitment to our gearing back then was very low. Even at the moment you would say for this deal it shows gearing of about 30 per cent. That would be typical at the peak of the market and if you think of how much we've dropped it shows you the strength of the company that we are actually in that position.

What we've been hit with is a short term liquidity squeeze because we have those key investments, particularly Prominent Hill and Century which once completed then generate cash so we had this hump of need of extra cash which comes back second half of the year.

ALAN KOHLER: Do you know whether Min Metals is going to keep you on?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: I guess at this stage they are saying they want all the management, they are buying a total team, but nothing in writing. My job at the moment, number one, number two, number three is focussed on delivering best returns for the shareholders, actually make sure we don't go into receivership.

ALAN KOHLER: And do you know how corporate governance works with companies like the estate owned Chinese firms, how will they actually run it?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Look all the information I have is they want this as their offshore vehicle to grow their base metals business, they have a number of entities that they have to report back to and they are very committed to corporate governance.

ALAN KOHLER: And do think they'll use it as a base to make more acquisitions in Australia?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: I certainly think so, I think they are going to see this as a platform to really grow their business, they get assessed on what return they generate on the funds they've been able to put in. So they're not interested in special deals selling our products at lower prices they actually want the best prices out of them it generates the best return, they get support.

ALAN KOHLER: So you can see them making more takeovers in Australia?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Look I can certainly see them as we settle everything down it's going to be a number of months down the track to do that. The question then will be with the base we've got the things we've had to cut back what should we be doing actually now that we've got the finance to be able to do them? What really adds value to the company, in addition to that they'll be looking at what's outside that could add value.

ALAN KOHLER: You might be doing it for them. With all this Chinese money.

ANDREW MICHELMORE: I could be but my first focus is we've got to deliver this for our shareholders and our employees, our suppliers all our stakeholders.

ALAN KOHLER: Thanks for joining us Andrew Michelmore.

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Thanks Alan.


----------



## bigdog

Possible sale to former OZ officiers!!!

http://business.smh.com.au/business/hegartys-tigers-in-battle-to-buy-ozs-gold-20090310-8u5i.html

Sydney Morning Herald article today

*Hegarty's Tigers in battle to buy OZ's gold*
Jamie Freed
March 11, 2009

OZ MINERALS is talking to more than one potential buyer of its Martabe gold project in Indonesia because of the inability of a leading candidate, the Owen Hegarty-backed Tigers Gold, to obtain enough funding for the $210 million purchase.

Tigers was established on December 5 by Oxiana's former company secretary David Forsyth. The previous day OZ, the merged Oxiana-Zinifex, disclosed the full extent of its refinancing difficulties and began accepting expressions of interest in its assets.

Mr Hegarty, the former head of Oxiana, resigned from the OZ board two weeks later. He joined the board of Tigers, a private company, last month.

OZ was unable to clarify whether Tigers was already in negotiations to buy Martabe when Mr Hegarty left, citing confidentiality agreements with potential buyers of assets.

OZ's chief executive, Andrew Michelmore, recently told the market he expected the sale of Martabe would be completed by the end of last week. But the Herald has now been told a sale is not "absolutely imminent".

OZ has yet to announce the sale of Martabe or its Golden Grove mine. It has until March 30 to convince its banking syndicate to give it a final extension that would allow China Minmetals to proceed with its $2.6 billion bid for the company. The deal remains subject to Foreign Investment Review Board approval.

The Herald understands OZ had some aspects of exclusivity in its negotiations with Tigers, but it is now more open to considering alternative offers since Tigers's funding has so far failed to materialise. Multiple buyers remain interested in Martabe and Golden Grove.

Tigers is believed to be seeking funding from institutional investors, but despite the attraction of gold, it is difficult to obtain funding in this market. In addition to the purchase price, it will cost an extra $345 million to complete the construction of Martabe.

Although many goldminers, including Newcrest Mining, Lihir Gold and Barrick Gold, have strong balance sheets, the nature of the resource and the operating situation in Indonesia are believed to have deterred some potential buyers.

Tigers, which appears to have been gearing up for a public listing, cites its registered office as the accounting firm of Barassi & Co in Melbourne. Mr Hegarty has had previous business relationships with the firm's head, Ken Barassi, and his cousin, the football legend Ron Barassi.

Another company linked to Mr Forsyth registered the domain name www.tigersgold.com in January.

Mr Forsyth, who now works at Citadel Resource Group alongside Mr Hegarty and the former Oxiana chief financial officer Jeff Sells, said he was unable to comment about Tigers interest in Martabe. A potential listing of Tigers was dependent on "a number of factors", he said.

OZ shares closed 5c higher at 62.5c yesterday, well below the 82.5c on offer from Minmetals.


----------



## bigdog

*Looks like we may get a higher price for Martabe!!!*

The HeraldSun reported today in addition to the article below, that Oxiana acquired Martabe for $415 million in 2007 by buying Agincourt Resources.  

*Business Spectator reports:*
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/International-player-eyes-OZ-Minerals-Martabe-asse-$pd20090314-Q525P?OpenDocument

*International player eyes OZ Minerals' Martabe asset*
By a staff reporter

An international player has emerged as a potential buyer for OZ Mineral's Martabe gold project in Indonesia, putting pressure on former Oxiana chief Owen Hegarty's quest to reclaim the project.

According to the Herald Sun, while Mr Hegarty is still the front runner for the $345 million project owned by debt-laden OZ Minerals, a rival bidder has delayed completion of the deal.

The paper says one of the four North American precious metals miners - Coeur d'Alene, Sunshine Precious Metals, La Mancha Resources and Silver Standard - may be the late entrant for the asset. Another possibility is Canadian gold royalty company, Franco Nevada.

Mr Hegarty was the chief executive of Oxiana until it merged with Zinifex last year to create Australia's third-largest mining group.

But the merger has not gone well, with OZ recently posting an annual net loss of $2.48 billion, and telling investors the company would fall into the hands of receivers if a takeover offer by Chinese Minmetals did not proceed.

OZ shares closed at 61.5 cents on Friday.


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## fighting41

Could someone please tell me what will be the outcome for the shares I own if the Chinese offer gets through? 

Does it mean they will be buying/taking the shares I own in Oz and I will only get $0.825 for them and have no say if I am able to keep them or not?
Thanks in advance


----------



## oldblue

Shareholders will vote on the proposal if/when it gets approval.( See OZL ASX announcement today.)
If passed, we all get bought out at 82.5c or maybe a bit more if the two assets which are "under offer" fetch good prices. 
Looking on the bright side, the alternative if financiers play hardball is that OZL goes into administration and assets get sold, probably at fire-sale prices. I doubt that there'd be 82.5c ps left after that but that's just IMO.


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## fighting41

Thanks mate. 

I hope some of the directors that led us down this path won't even be able to flip burgers at Maccas


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## bigdog

*The OZL SP is down 3.5 cents to 57.5 at 12:13 PM today

News reported today:
*
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dj-oz-minerals-seeking-further/story.aspx?guid={E98817B6-E289-4388-8823-007C63120474}&dist=msr_5

*DJ OZ Minerals Seeking Further Bridging Finance*

Last update: 6:09 p.m. EDT March 16, 2009

MELBOURNE, Mar 16, 2009 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- OZ Minerals Ltd. (OZL.AU) said Tuesday it is seeking further bridging finance from its lenders to cover any cash requirements that may arise during the bid period for the A$2.6 billion takeover offer from China Minmetals Nonferrous Metals Co.

A spokesman for the miner said it is in talks with its existing lenders on a new facility that could be drawn on to meet any cash requirements that may emerge during the offer period.

"We are seeking an interim financing arrangement just to be on the safe side," he said.

"It is a contingency plan in the event that the approval process takes longer, commodity prices come off or there is any delay in the asset sales programs."
OZ didn't disclose the amount of interim financing it is seeking.

The miner's lenders last month granted it an extension until March 31 on its A$1.3 billion worth of loans and OZ is in talks for further extensions to allow the Minmetals deal to be completed.

OZ is seeking an extension of its loans to Sep. 15, which is two weeks after the Minmetals scheme of arrangement will terminate if it hasn't been implemented.

-By Alex Wilson, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-3-9671-4313; lex.wilson@dowjones.com


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## sammy84

Looks like another sell off is underway approaching fridays FIRB decision. I still see no reason why the FIRB wont go ahead. This could be a good opportunity to buy on the back of everyone else's fear.


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## bulli

OZL in trading halt pending an announcement it expects to make today regarding the status of regulatory approvals in relation to teh proposed aquisition of shares in the Company by China Minmetals Non-Ferrous Co. Limited


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## bigdog

ASX ANN

23-03-2009 06:30 PM  	 OZL  	  Minmetals Offer Update - FIRB extends evaluation period 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00938792

*Minmetals Offer Update - FIRB extends evaluation period by up to 90 days *

OZ Minerals has today been advised that the evaluation period for consideration of the application by China Minmetals Non-Ferrous Metals Company Limited (“Minmetals”) for approval to acquire all the shares in OZ Minerals under the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act (“Act”) has been extended by up to 90 days from 24 March 2009.  

OZ Minerals understands the requirement for proper process to be followed and will continue to work co-operatively with the Foreign Investment Review Board. It is in the interests of OZ Minerals, its shareholders, employees and all its stakeholders that the Minmetals’ application is determined as soon as possible.   

As previously advised, OZ Minerals is seeking an extension for the refinancing date for certain of its banking facilities until 15 September, which is two weeks after the End Date, being the latest implementation date currently permitted under the Scheme Implementation Agreement (“SIA”) with Minmetals. This time period was set under the SIA to allow for the contingency that the evaluation period under the Act may be extended beyond 30 days. OZ Minerals will continue negotiations with its lenders to achieve the extension required.


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## jman2007

bigdog said:


> As previously advised, OZ Minerals is seeking an extension for the refinancing date for certain of its banking facilities until 15 September, which is two weeks after the End Date, being the latest implementation date currently permitted under the Scheme Implementation Agreement (“SIA”) with Minmetals. This time period was set under the SIA to allow for the contingency that the evaluation period under the Act may be extended beyond 30 days. OZ Minerals will continue negotiations with its lenders to achieve the extension required.




Er...

Isn't this a really bad outcome for the company? Sounds like they FIRB have basically just dusted their hands of these guys and chucked them into the arena with the lions. I wonder why the FIRB need another 90 days?

If the banks don't play along with this, then isn't administration a real risk here?

jman


----------



## UPKA

jman2007 said:


> Er...
> 
> Isn't this a really bad outcome for the company? Sounds like they FIRB have basically just dusted their hands of these guys and chucked them into the arena with the lions. I wonder why the FIRB need another 90 days?
> 
> If the banks don't play along with this, then isn't administration a real risk here?
> 
> jman




If u've been reading the news, its been the same for FMG and RIO's deal. extension doesn't mean its a "no". so its still good, plus UBS just upgraded OZL from HOLD to BUY, as they have better than even's change to get approval from FIRB. wats more important now is for the creditors to extend OZL's refinance deadline.


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## YELNATS

jman2007 said:


> Er...
> 
> Isn't this a really bad outcome for the company? Sounds like they FIRB have basically just dusted their hands of these guys and chucked them into the arena with the lions. I wonder why the FIRB need another 90 days?
> 
> If the banks don't play along with this, then isn't administration a real risk here?
> 
> jman




I suspect that OZL probably expected this outcome, so although it's not goods news, neither is it particularly bad either. 

Bureaucrats never like to make quick decisions if they can avoid them. It's just another necessary step in the process.

Let's see if the market judges it the same way when they come out of their halt.


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## jman2007

UPKA said:


> wats more important now is for the creditors to extend OZL's refinance deadline.





And your last statement is exactly what I'm getting at

I'm not a holder of this stock, and no I haven't been following the news that closely. I'm just trying to guage other holder's opinion of this announcement. But grouping FMG and RIO in the same boat seems a little optimisitc to me. Personally I can't see the creditors beaming with joy at this announcment. 

Purely an outsider's view looking in.

jman


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## Taltan

I'm no PR expert but if I was at OZL I would get out there today with some soon to be retrenched workers and phoning Fairfax & News for a front page splash of how Jo Blo will lose his house because of the FIRB. Get it as a big story on both papers and I would think Rudd would urge them to take less than 90 days.


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## bigdog

ASX ANN 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00939848

27 March 2009  OZ Minerals Limited  TRADING HALT

The securities of OZ Minerals Limited (the “Company”) will be placed in pre-open at the request of the Company, pending the release of an announcement by the Company.  Unless ASX decides otherwise, the securities will remain in pre-open until the earlier of the commencement of normal trading on Tuesday, 31 March 2009 or when the announcement is released to the market.


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## bigdog

http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21498,25249818-951,00.html?from=public_rss

*OZ in trading halt on debt extension*
Article from: AAP

March 27, 2009 08:43am

OZ Minerals shares have been placed in a trading halt as the debt-laden miner seeks an extension to refinance $1.3 billion of debt due Tuesday.
The debt-laden miner said on Friday its shares would remain in a trading halt until Tuesday, March 31, or when an announcement is released to the market.

OZ Minerals, which is the focus of a $2.6 billion takeover by Chinese state-owned Minmetals Non-ferrous Metals Company Ltd, requires an extension to its debt refinancing to stay afloat.

The Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) on Monday extended its review of the Minmetals takeover by 90 days after the initial 30-day period expired on Saturday March 21.

OZ Minerals shares last traded at 55.5 cents.


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## TheAbyss

Big issue here is what will the banks do? They hold the future in their hands.

Do they cut their risk, seize the assets and sell them to get their money back or do they play the waiting game?

What do Minmetals do with the banks if they increase the interest rate charges in order for being patient?

So long as the banks agree to new repayment periods etc then all will be ok. 

Why cant OZL sell Matarbe? The board do not seem to be able to complete a project of any description which has caused me to take some profits off the table this week as i am becoming a tad edgy on this one.


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## nizora

Swan blocks Chinese takeover of OZ mineJamie Freed
March 27, 2009 - 4:46PM 
The Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan, has prohibited China Minmetals from buying the Prominent Hill mine from OZ Minerals, in a move that is likely to scupper the Chinese company's $2.6 billion bid for the company.

Prominent Hill is OZ's most valuable asset, and Mr Swan's ruling that its location in the Woomera Prohibited Area in South Australia means it is too sensitive to be owned by a Chinese state-owned company is likely to leave the OZ board searching for alternative options to avoid administration.

OZ needs to repay or extend the deadline on $1.3 billion of debt due on Tuesday to avoid administration. Now, its options would be appear to be rather limited, short of a last-minute offer from Barrick Gold, BHP Billiton or another mining company


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## jackson8

nizora said:


> Swan blocks Chinese takeover of OZ mineJamie Freed
> March 27, 2009 - 4:46PM
> The Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan, has prohibited China Minmetals from buying the Prominent Hill mine from OZ Minerals, in a move that is likely to scupper the Chinese company's $2.6 billion bid for the company.
> 
> Prominent Hill is OZ's most valuable asset, and Mr Swan's ruling that its location in the Woomera Prohibited Area in South Australia means it is too sensitive to be owned by a Chinese state-owned company is likely to leave the OZ board searching for alternative options to avoid administration.
> 
> OZ needs to repay or extend the deadline on $1.3 billion of debt due on Tuesday to avoid administration. Now, its options would be appear to be rather limited, short of a last-minute offer from Barrick Gold, BHP Billiton or another mining company




wow who saw that coming 
who would have thought about the aspect of the  mine being on military ground being a hinderance to the takeover
its the first ive heard of it


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## gfresh

full article: http://business.theage.com.au/business/swan-blocks-chinese-takeover-of-oz-mine-20090327-9d1x.html

Politics at it's finest.. I thought Woomera hadn't been used for decades?

I guess there is a small hope for the company to survive as copper prices are picking up from the bottom, but odds can't be too good.


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## nunthewiser

"Treasurer Wayne Swan said today the proximity of the company’s Prominent Hill copper and gold mine in South Australia to the government’s Woomera Prohibited Area weapons testing range meant the takeover would breach national security.

But the government has left the door open for negotiation saying it would reconsider the proposal if Prominent Hill was not part of the deal.

Mr Swan said the Woomera Prohibited Area weapons testing range made a unique and sensitive contribution to Australia’s national defence.

He said the Minmetals bid could not be approved if it included Prominent Hill.

Discussions between the Foreign Investment Review Board and Minmetals were continuing in relation to Oz Minerals’ other businesses and assets.

The government said it was willing to consider alternative proposals relating to those other assets and businesses "

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=159&ContentID=132701


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## magiceye

This is the biggest load of hypocritical crap I've heard in a long time. It's ok for our dishonourable defence minister Fitzgibbon to accept gifts from some Chinese business woman and not declare them to the parliament, K. Rudd to have secret meetings last week with Chinese officials but not this?? Now they're costing people jobs and their life savings!


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## Pager

With its debt refinancing issues and with the takeover being knocked back i would say its know a basket case.

Looks like another client for the administrators next week.


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## jman2007

jman2007 said:


> Er...
> 
> Isn't this a really bad outcome for the company? Sounds like they FIRB have basically just dusted their hands of these guys and chucked them into the arena with the lions. I wonder why the FIRB need another 90 days?
> 
> If the banks don't play along with this, then isn't administration a real risk here?
> 
> jman




Well I have to admit the Prominent Hill ruling came straight out of left-field, never would have imagined in my wildest dreams that a missile testing site would have come into the equation.

Unfortunately the most likely outcome from here will be a break-up of the company and a selling-off of its assets. Quite likely that it wont come out of its trading halt imo. A real shock for everyone involved I guess, OZL had a great plan, but was just caught in the wrong place at the wrong time.

jman


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## UPKA

I can sense the panic has set in. Those who bought in OZL should've already taken these factors into account already, e.g. failure to get approval from FIRB, or failure to get extension on loans. 


here's a good article for a read:
http://www.forexpros.com/news/financial-news/analysis-tough-choices-for-oz-as-minmetals-rescue-misfires-39978


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## edliw

If P/H is that important that  China cann't have it, dose this mean indirectly that the Gov is going to prop up the finances for Oz. Instead of throwing $900.00 dollars every where, which the effect will last for a couple of weeks, if they put some money into some projects like this , I am sure the benefit would last a lot longer. It's only a Billion dollars which seems to be small change now days


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## Boggo

Map below may give you an idea of just how much area the military rent out to any country that wants to rent a rocket or military testing ground.

The SFC to FL999 means Surface to 100,000 feet above sea level.

(click to enlarge)


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## jman2007

edliw said:


> If P/H is that important that  China cann't have it, dose this mean indirectly that the Gov is going to prop up the finances for Oz. Instead of throwing $900.00 dollars every where, which the effect will last for a couple of weeks, if they put some money into some projects like this , I am sure the benefit would last a lot longer. It's only a Billion dollars which seems to be small change now days




It's a nice thought edliw, but very unlikely to eventuate.

Any government that dabbles in the affairs of a publicly-listed company is playing with fire. There is just no way to draw a line in the sand and set any kind of precedent. Would that also mean that BHP's Ravensthorpe Ni mine should be resurrected to save jobs?...or Monarch Gold's Davyhurst operation bailed out by the taxayer too? 

Never going to happen.


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## fighting41

It should never have got to this stage in the first place. The blame should be laid squarely at the feet of the people who got us into this situation.


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## sammy84

This decision has just confirmed to me what poor leader Swan is. Somebody should inform Swan that prominent hill was previously part owned by a US firm. Furthermore, why announce such a decision when OZ minerals is about to seek debt refinancing. This decision will ultimately result in the loss of more jobs and revenue. If the man couldn't handle this decision correctly how is he entrusted to run our economy?


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## nunthewiser

fighting41 said:


> It should never have got to this stage in the first place. The blame should be laid squarely at the feet of the people who got us into this situation.






Good post and entirely correct .......... cant blame the guvvermint for the shape that OZL is in , they didnt put it there


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## sammy84

nunthewiser said:


> Good post and entirely correct .......... cant blame the guvvermint for the shape that OZL is in , they didnt put it there




Hey nun

Whilst on principal you cant blame the government, they still have to face the practicalities that the biggest loser in this decision is Australian jobs, which is the govs responsibility. 

Every firm that has been bailed out to date(e.g Citi), or has been allowed a lenient merger (e.g Merrill & BoA) hasn't been due to the fault of the respective governments. However the decisions have had to be made bearing in mind what is in the best Interests for the economy of the country.

Swan is nothing but a bureaucrat. He has been one his whole life. The man has an arts degree and handles our economy.


----------



## nunthewiser

sammy84 said:


> Hey nun
> 
> Whilst on principal you cant blame the government, they still have to face the practicalities that the biggest loser in this decision is Australian jobs, which is the govs responsibility.
> 
> Every firm that has been bailed out to date(e.g Citi), or has been allowed a lenient merger (e.g Merrill & BoA) hasn't been due to the fault of the respective governments. However the decisions have had to be made bearing in mind what is in the best Interests for the economy of the country.
> 
> Swan is nothing but a bureaucrat. He has been one his whole life. The man has an arts degree and handles our economy.





Totally agree re swan .better of giving him the position of arts and farts director........the OZL thing is NOT a bailout it was a full takeover by a forein nation which frankly i agree on for being knocked back ....too many potential ramifications involved 

i DO have sympathy for OZL shareholders and know quite a few that will be hurt by this ...... and sincerely hope an AUSTRALIAN shining knight comes striding in before its over


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## Iron Man

I bought OZL on a punt to go short then got stopped out when banks extended the loan. Then went long and kept a tight stop, that got stopped out too last week. So the moral of the story is keep risk under control you never know what could happen and in this case who knew about a test site next door?.


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## johenmo

nunthewiser said:


> i DO have sympathy for OZL shareholders and know quite a few that will be hurt by this ...... and sincerely hope an AUSTRALIAN shining knight comes striding in before its over




I had and sold mid-last week.  Thought I'd collect enough to take the family to Maccas  before I had nothing left. Got hurt and finally withdrew.

A little bit of something is better than all of nothing has been my philosohpy on quite a few thing.

Not trying to down ramp.  Risk is too high for my liking. DYOR.


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## aleckara

This baby was too much risk as soon as the FIRB approval was required in order for the deal to go through. As much as I thought they may approve it you can't trade the stock technically or fundamentally anymore. You almost have to flip a coin to predict the decision of one person.

A relative was heavily invested in OZL. I suggested to them to buy put options at $0.5 for 5c per share (only because he was very unwilling to sell). The takeover was offering something like 82c? while the loss was potentially everything from the treasurers decision IMO. Since government is often unpredictable I figured at least limit the downside if you want to hold.

Most countries are being protectionist a little with their resources nowdays and China is a huge culprit. I actually think its Australia's fault - we should never have been in a situation where we have to sell the farm to pay the bills. Every country has an advantage - I saw an article that even China has established an almost monopoly on rare earth metals for electronics.


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## nathanblack

when suspension is over i expect price to drop to pre takeover price level of low 30cents. maybe less give they need urgent financing now. if it goes below 30c i still see value there but high risk too. what are others views on sp post trading halt?

how important is that 1asset on the rocket range? surely the chances of a rival bid by an aussie company is still a chance or a revised bid minus that asset by the chinese?

dont currently own but would consider if the high risk was balanced by a potential high reward. under 30cents i would consider because minmetals could take this asset out and make another offer of say 60cents or government handout?


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## noco

nathanblack said:


> when suspension is over i expect price to drop to pre takeover price level of low 30cents. maybe less give they need urgent financing now. if it goes below 30c i still see value there but high risk too. what are others views on sp post trading halt?
> 
> how important is that 1asset on the rocket range? surely the chances of a rival bid by an aussie company is still a chance or a revised bid minus that asset by the chinese?
> 
> dont currently own but would consider if the high risk was balanced by a potential high reward. under 30cents i would consider because minmetals could take this asset out and make another offer of say 60cents or government handout?





Imho if OZL are placed in the hands of an  administrator it could be the salavation of the company in light of  Prominent hill copper and gold mine which has just come into production. 

Commodity prices are on the rise, particularly copper.

I am personally  optimistic the company could trade their way out if the banks show some compassion and leniency on their debt. Others may differ in opinion.


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## lucifuge

noco said:


> Imho if OZL are placed in the hands of an  administrator it could be the salavation of the company in light of  Prominent hill copper and gold mine which has just come into production.
> 
> Commodity prices are on the rise, particularly copper.
> 
> I am personally  optimistic the company could trade their way out if the banks show some compassion and leniency on their debt. Others may differ in opinion.




I totally agree with you on this. I've been planning on saying it myself. The market is a funny place, stranger things happen. A bit on leniency now could realize huge benefits in future, economy-wise, job-wise etc etc. It aint done and dusted yet.


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## jackson8

noco said:


> Imho if OZL are placed in the hands of an  administrator it could be the salavation of the company in light of  Prominent hill copper and gold mine which has just come into production.
> 
> Commodity prices are on the rise, particularly copper.
> 
> I am personally  optimistic the company could trade their way out if the banks show some compassion and leniency on their debt. Others may differ in opinion.




when has a bank ever shown any compassion or leniency 
this even evades the goverment as they will be well aware of the consequences of  prohibiting the takeover. and if they arent concerned about investors losing their money well imo neither will the banks be
any bank will only be concerned about cutting their own losses


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## webguru

Personally I am gobsmacked. Surely - I bought into OZL recently having reached the logical conclusion that the government has to act in light of how much were they bailing out other entities (including bloody banks)... why would they not help save one of the important australian miners, and instead let them slip into administration..? Where is the logic? Perhaps I was wrong - there is no logic... and to see that no other Australian miner would see value in OZ at such a low price, too! Or perhaps noone's got any money..?


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## jman2007

noco said:


> Imho if OZL are placed in the hands of an  administrator it could be the salavation of the company in light of  Prominent hill copper and gold mine which has just come into production.
> 
> I am personally  optimistic the company could trade their way out if the banks show some compassion and leniency on their debt. Others may differ in opinion.




noco, if OZL go into administration the first in the pecking order will be the secured creditors and lenders. Even if there is anything left after this, the small shareholders will likely get very little if anything back. That whole process alone could take years to sort out - if it comes to that.

The banks will show no mercy here, if they think they can get their money back quicker and easier by putting OZL into admin, then that's what they'll do. On the othe hand, they may take the more prudent approach of extending the debt roll-over period if they think OZL can trade their way out of this, but I think ultimtaely it depends on whether or not the Chinese are interested in returning to the negotiating table.


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## SGB

*Minmetals revives bid for OZ*

Mar 29, 2009 (The Age - ABIX via COMTEX) -- OZMLF | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating --" Last-minute negotiations appear to have enabled a new takeover offer for struggling resources group OZ Minerals by Minmetals, after the Chinese entity had been banned due to national security concerns by the Australian Government. The new terms exclude the Prominent Hill asset, located within reach of a defence missile testing range. Unless OZ can finalise the transaction by 1 April, its crippling debt is likely to spell its end."


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## UPKA

Prominent Hill is worth $800m-$1b, with Minmetals' original offer at $2.6b, will the revised offer to be around $1-1.6b? I think BHP has low balled OZL $500m for Prominent Hill, now Barrack Gold has joint scene, hopefully with a bit of competition, we'll see a fairer value...


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## gfresh

Articles suggest minus Prominent Hill, revised offer could be close to 50c. 

I'm suprised Minmetals wishes to persist through this, but I guess they are pretty keen on several of the other assets.


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## noco

Has anybody any idea what will happen to Prominent Hill?
Will it stay with OZL to continue operations?

If Minmetals is granted the remainder without Prominent Hill, perhaps the sale of the other assets may be enough for OZL to contiue!


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## crayfish

gfresh said:


> Politics at it's finest.. I thought Woomera hadn't been used for decades?




Yep. The govt is using this purely for political points. But it will backfire on Swan if OZ doesn't get an extension. Ammo for the libs re jobs...

Woomera has been used in the last decade: remember the detention centre = Another political point scoring excercise. Those boat people obviously weren't a risk to our national security after all! I mean would you put them at Woomera if they were????

I too am gobsmacked at this decision. As the Minotaur MD said, any Chinese tourist could drive the Stuart Hwy, take a tent out there and do what they wanted.


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## matt1987

if oz end up selling all assets other than prom hill to minmetals, will they get enough cash to pay off all of their debt ?

if this is the case, the result for the company may not be too bad, as prom hill is forcasting 200,000 ounces copper and 70,000 ounces gold a year from what i have read. producing that much gold would have to generate enough money to make the company profitable you would think.


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## prawn_86

matt1987 said:


> producing that much gold would have to generate enough money to make the company profitable you would think.




Massive assumption there Matt.

What cost per ounce is that gold produced at? What other costs do they have? What if the gold price falls from where it is now? What if they dont reach their forecast production figures?

Its a bit too simple to say that "oh they are forecasting producing a lot, they must be making money"


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## PBH

I think the best case scenario for OZL shareholders would be the acceptance of any Minmetals offer, and the sale of Prominent Hill to BHP.

Just give up on the idea of OZL continuing to trade in any way, shape or form. Barring some incredible spike in commodity prices within the next couple of months (sure it CAN happen, but the odds aren't exactly good, to say the least...), it is all but a dead duck. 

The key now is to get the best possible value for Prominent Hill. This will be very hard, as the Govt has virtually put BHP in a monopoly bidding position, by excluding ownership by foreign companies, in the name of protecting a 'sensitive' *cough* military testing area.

The existing $500 million offer (if indeed it even exists) is an incredible insult though. I wouldn't even call it low-ball. More like gutter-ball...


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## nunthewiser

um some ppl just dont get it hey

IF minmetals or WHOEVER buys out OZL on a full takeover it will not matter a toss what happens to prom hill ...... the takeover is exscatly that .they takeover your shares and they buy OZL from you ........OZL will belong to somone else and prominent hill proceeds will go to whomever buys it ... 


i could be wrong , i am a nun after all


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## Buster

G'day Gfresh,



gfresh said:


> I thought Woomera hadn't been used for decades?




Certainly not as active as it has been, but there is still a surprising amount of 'work' being conducted at Woomera..

Cheers,

Buster


----------



## nunthewiser

nunthewiser said:


> um some ppl just dont get it hey
> 
> IF minmetals or WHOEVER buys out OZL on a full takeover it will not matter a toss what happens to prom hill ...... the takeover is exscatly that .they takeover your shares and they buy OZL from you ........OZL will belong to somone else and prominent hill proceeds will go to whomever buys it ...
> 
> 
> i could be wrong , i am a nun after all




sorry guys i miss typed a meaning re




> prominent hill proceeds will go to whomever buys it ...




i meant that prom hill proceeeds will go to whoever sells it .. which in this case is likely to be OZL,s creditors


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## JTLP

nunthewiser said:


> sorry guys i miss typed a meaning re
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i meant that prom hill proceeeds will go to whoever sells it .. which in this case is likely to be OZL,s creditors




Smart Smart man...you don't sell 90% of your shares to Minmetals and hold out for the sale of Prominent Hill and get the other 10%! :

Glad I got stopped out of OXR at 3.20 back in the day...was cursing at the time! Now i'm like a pig in ****zen!


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## UPKA

JTLP said:


> Glad I got stopped out of OXR at 3.20 back in the day...was cursing at the time! Now i'm like a pig in ****zen!




doesn't really makes sense, are you saying u've made a wise decision by selling out 12mths ago? so u must've predicted the credit crunch too?

anyways, Minmetals is offering btw $1.6b to $2b cash for all except Prominent Hill copper and gold mine in Aust. I'm a bit unclear as to how the SP will hold up, Prominent Hill is valued btw $900m to $1.2b, which is around 40-50c.


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## UPKA

US$1.2b cash offer, not a bad deal. OZL said after they paid off their debt obligations, they'll have about $600m left over in cash, which is about 20c in current market cap. like i mentioned before, Prominent Hill is said to be "valued between $900m to $1.2b, which is around 40-50c". SP is currently trading at 54c - 20c (cash) = 34c on it's assets. It is undervalued, however we still need to factor in the risks that the deal won't go thru (either rejected by FIRB or Swan).


----------



## skc

UPKA said:


> US$1.2b cash offer, not a bad deal. OZL said after they paid off their debt obligations, they'll have about $600m left over in cash, which is about 20c in current market cap. like i mentioned before, Prominent Hill is said to be "valued between $900m to $1.2b, which is around 40-50c". SP is currently trading at 54c - 20c (cash) = 34c on it's assets. It is undervalued, however we still need to factor in the risks that the deal won't go thru (either rejected by FIRB or Swan).




Last offer was A$0.825 per share. New offer is US$1.2b, or A$1.76b (0.68 exchange rate), or ~A$0.56 per share (3.12b shares listed) excluding Prominent Hill. So Prominent Hill was valued by Minmetals at A$0.265 per share, or about A$830m. 

Based on the A$0.2 per share left over after paying off debt, OZL share price should be around $0.265+$0.2+ bits and pieces of other mines/investments. So the current price of ~$0.55 seems reasonable, esp. given the risks of FIRB / banks / Swan / Department of Health (who knows?!) objections. Unless of course there are more to the bits and pieces or a bullish outlook for whatever it is that Prominent Hill is producing.


----------



## YELNATS

UPKA said:


> US$1.2b cash offer, not a bad deal. OZL said after they paid off their debt obligations, they'll have about $600m left over in cash, which is about 20c in current market cap. like i mentioned before, Prominent Hill is said to be "valued between $900m to $1.2b, which is around 40-50c". SP is currently trading at 54c - 20c (cash) = 34c on it's assets. It is undervalued, however we still need to factor in the risks that the deal won't go thru (either rejected by FIRB or Swan).




Unless I misinterpret this new deal, it is totally different to the previous one, as it means that OZL won't be 100% swallowed up by China. 

I know it means that OZL's sp will be in the doldrums for some time, but with Prominent Hill in its' arsenal, at least it has a chance to rebuild in its' own right  longterm. 

Mr Swan may have done OZL a favour, as maybe they didn't really have the option of saying "yes" to Minmetals' initial offer, "except that we'll keep Prominent Hill".


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## UPKA

skc said:


> Last offer was A$0.825 per share. New offer is US$1.2b, or A$1.76b (0.68 exchange rate), or ~A$0.56 per share (3.12b shares listed) excluding Prominent Hill. So Prominent Hill was valued by Minmetals at A$0.265 per share, or about A$830m.
> 
> Based on the A$0.2 per share left over after paying off debt, OZL share price should be around $0.265+$0.2+ bits and pieces of other mines/investments. So the current price of ~$0.55 seems reasonable, esp. given the risks of FIRB / banks / Swan / Department of Health (who knows?!) objections. Unless of course there are more to the bits and pieces or a bullish outlook for whatever it is that Prominent Hill is producing.




mind you that the current offer is cash offer only, which Minmetals will not pay off OZL's debts. so after debt, the cash position is $600m or $0.20, the market is valuing its other asssets (Prominent Hill + Martabe) at 35c/share at the current SP or roughly $1b. So essentially market is pricing Prominent Hill@$800m and Martabe@$200m. which is the low end of the valuation, any bidding war that might start on either Prominent Hill or Martabe will see the SP moving up.


----------



## tm1234

just a question
if the new deal goes through, does this mean shareholder will receive a cash payment of around 55c and OZL will still trade on the asx?
tm


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## cooper276

Wishful thinking tm - this deal delivers no payment to shareholders, unless whoever happens to be on the board of OZ decides to return some of the $600M odd that should be left over via some sort of div. payment.

What you do get is to keep your shares, have no debt....and significantly fewer mines or exploration areas.

Cheers


----------



## skc

tm1234 said:


> just a question
> if the new deal goes through, does this mean shareholder will receive a cash payment of around 55c and OZL will still trade on the asx?
> tm




This is no longer a take-over. It is just an asset sale. Shareholders do not receive the cash, OZL does. It may choose to repay debt, or spend it on lollies.


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## nathanblack

remember too that reduced assets will result in reduced overheads, so the surplus cash should last awhile. obviouly prominent hill has limited buyer(must be australian it would seem) but would OZL still be wanting to sell mutabe or should they now continue on with these assets?

revenues will be hugely affect as will there market cap. with there cash deposit they could look to make acquisitions but thats what got them into this mess so i doubt they will go down that path.

they could be prey for another company looking for the remaining assets and cash hoard.

maybe a share buyback with surplus cash? gives shareholders the oportunity of all cash (minmetals cash + buyback cash) and those that want to continue on can hold and own more of a smaller company

any thoughts?


----------



## oldblue

any thoughts?

Only that if it all comes off it will be the best of possible outcomes for OZL shareholders.
Debt repaid, nasty zinc assets quit and the best asset, Prominent Hill, left to shape the company's future fortune. All we would need then is an eventual upturn in copper ( and gold) prices and some half-decent management skills.
Hope that's not too much to ask!


----------



## craig_oneill

So really we have gotten rid of what we dont want and kept what we still want??? It seems like we have done the best in a bad situation as prominent hill will do well over the longer term providing that the copper price improves.


----------



## oldblue

craig_oneill said:


> So really we have gotten rid of what we dont want and kept what we still want??? It seems like we have done the best in a bad situation as prominent hill will do well over the longer term providing that the copper price improves.




That's how I read it - fingers crossed for all the necessary approvals!

Of course, selling assets at the bottom of the cycle is not the way to go if one had any choice in the matter. Nothing more certain than that the price if zinc, lead etc won't always be in the cellar. Century and the other "bad" assets will have their day in the sun again.


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## bigdog

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=796871

Most likely a former associate with $8 million in the bank!!

I believe that the Martabe purchase price was $400+ million back in 2007!!!

*OZ Minerals has preferred bidder for Martabe-official*
2/04/2009 4:00:25 PM

SYDNEY, April 2 (Reuters) - Australian miner OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL.AX , 0.575, +0.040, +7.480%) has a preferred bidder for its partly developed Martabe gold and silver project in Indonesia, an OZ Minerals official told Reuters on Thursday.

"We have still got a competitive process going, but we have got preferred bidder and we would expect they would be people who complete (the deal)," Bruce Loveday, general manager business development for OZ Minerals said.

On Wednesday, OZ Minerals agreed to sell most of its assets, excluding Martabe and the Prominent Hill mine in Australia, to China's Minmetals for $1.21 billion. [ID:nSYD495273].

Separately, a source said the Martabe negotiations were progressing well.

"The discussions are progressing and a transaction could be completed on Martabe within a fairly short time frame," the source close to the transaction said.

The source declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue.

............................................................


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## craig_oneill

the point i still wonder about is how did they burn through cash when the two companies formed?? When the merger took place there was 1.2 billion in cash...i understand alot when into prominent hill to get up and running. However why did they go paying out dividends and using up all the cash leaving the company in the postion it is in??? i suppose i am annoyed that the company had really good potential and prospects and now thanks to the FIRB rejecting selling PH to the chinese we have somehow still ended up with a decent deal all being considered.


----------



## bigdog

craig_oneill said:


> the point i still wonder about is how did they burn through cash when the two companies formed?? When the merger took place there was 1.2 billion in cash...i understand alot when into prominent hill to get up and running. However why did they go paying out dividends and using up all the cash leaving the company in the postion it is in??? i suppose i am annoyed that the company had really good potential and prospects and now thanks to the FIRB rejecting selling PH to the chinese we have somehow still ended up with a decent deal all being considered.





Mismanagement, a change of management, management that are deserting the ship and encouraging shareholders to accept the original offer of 82 cents and doing absolutely nothing the save the company.  Most likely incapable to running the company??? 

What has management done to save the ship?

How many believe that accepting 82 cents is in the best interest of shareholders???

There are many shareholders that paid $3+ and $4+ per share; is this in the interest of shareholders???

There are quite a few OZL employees who purchased OZL options and are now really out of pocket; is this again in the best interest of shareholders.


OZL called the trading halt in November to prevent seeing the share price continue to fall!!!!

It is just like Cadburies chocolate reducing the size of blocks because the customers wanted it.


----------



## oldblue

I'm not making any excuses for management - or, rather, "mis-management" in this case - but there's no point in dwelling on past mistakes and omissions.
I paid somewhere north of $3 for my Oxiana too but that was then, this is now.
Back then, minerals were booming - "stronger for longer" was the cry and I don't recall too many dissenting voices. Prominent Hill was coming along nicely although a bit slower than planned and costing a bit more. But that strong operating cash-flow was coping with that.
The collapse of commodities prices put a stop to the party and PH, plus a few other smaller projects still had to be paid for. A merger with Zinifex looked like a good idea - using ZFX cash to pay for the Ox's expansion.
Those who didn't like the look of that got out. The rest of us are stuck with today's reality and must make the best of it that we can.

Sorry for the rant.


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## PP123

And i was told this would be a safe share to invest in????
just goes to show, never listen to anyone.


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## johenmo

oldblue said:


> I'm not making any excuses for management - or, rather, "mis-management" in this case - but there's no point in dwelling on past mistakes and omissions.
> I paid somewhere north of $3 for my Oxiana too but that was then, this is now.
> Back then, minerals were booming - "stronger for longer" was the cry and I don't recall too many dissenting voices. Prominent Hill was coming along nicely although a bit slower than planned and costing a bit more. But that strong operating cash-flow was coping with that.
> The collapse of commodities prices put a stop to the party and PH, plus a few other smaller projects still had to be paid for. A merger with Zinifex looked like a good idea - using ZFX cash to pay for the Ox's expansion.
> Those who didn't like the look of that got out. The rest of us are stuck with today's reality and must make the best of it that we can.
> 
> Sorry for the rant.





I was like you oldblue - had OXR, similar price.I put an end to my misery and sold 'em at 53 cents.  Then had a lavish meal at Golden Arches Restaurant!  I moved on.

I had a small position on OXR so only down a couple of K.

But made me look at the stock market harder, and so I saved more than that by taking an interest in my super last year.  Saved a 25% drop.  THAT felt good.


----------



## oldblue

johenmo said:


> I was like you oldblue - had OXR, similar price.I put an end to my misery and sold 'em at 53 cents.  Then had a lavish meal at Golden Arches Restaurant!  I moved on.
> 
> I had a small position on OXR so only down a couple of K.
> 
> But made me look at the stock market harder, and so I saved more than that by taking an interest in my super last year.  Saved a 25% drop.  THAT felt good.




Fair comment, johenmo.

In fact, I'm more positive about the OZL situation now than when it looked like the 82 cent takeover was going to happen. I reckon that if OZL is left with Prominent Hill plus the sale proceeds of Martabe, no debt and a bit of cash in hand, then there is a fighting chance that this company can have some sort of decent future when the price of copper recovers as I'm confident it eventually will.
All this presupposes a reasonably competent management, of course.


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## bigdog

OZL SP closed today 67.5 cents up 4.5 cents

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-safari-pd20090424-RE8XS?opendocument&src=rss

*Martabe safari*

Fresh from receiving Wayne Swan's imprimatur on its deal with Minmetals yesterday, Oz Minerals has announced the sale of its Martabe project to Cayman Islands-registered and Hong Kong-traded China Sci-Tech Holdings (CST).

CST bought Martabe, a gold and silver mine in northern Sumatra, for $US211 in cash, of which $US10 million will be paid upon signing. The remainder is expected to be paid in early June. Oz will also be reimbursed for $US7.5 million spent on the project since April 1. Oz will use the money to keep paying off its debt.

For CST, the Martabe investment represents a departure from some disastrous forays into the world of financial instruments. CST reported a loss for the 2008 financial year of $HK305.5 million. In the same year the group recorded total income of $HK29.14 million.

No doubt its executive team, led by Chiu Kong, Jimmy Kwan and Richard Hui, the latter of whom was educated in Sydney, will see gold to be a more tangible thing to assign some of its rich cash reserves to.

"We are pleased that, in CST and its Indonesian partners, we have been able to transact with a team who has paid an acceptable price after a competitive bidding process and who also understand and respect the requirements of doing business in Indonesia," said Oz chief Andrew Michelmore.

As for those “requirements”, CST has a strategic relationship with the Soeryadjaya family, especially Judith Soeryadjaya. The founder of the dynasty, William Soeryadjaya, started automaker Astra International, while his son Edwin is one of Indonesia's richest men. The other son is an executive in Suharto's Golkar Party.

Former Oxiana boss Owen Hegarty was also believed to be a contender in the Martabe bid. It is thought that his private company Tigers Realm Gold was unable to secure the necessary funding however. The scarily-named Tigers Realm may list within two years, Hegarty recently told media in Singapore.

Oz was advised by Creagh O’Connor, Rob Greenslade and Chris Johannsen from Gryphon Partners. They were the same bunch who advised Oxiana on its merger with Zinifex, propelling Gryphon up the league tables.

Gryphon has also recently advised Unmin on its bid for Consolidated Rutile (Lines in the sand, April 17) and Beach Petroleum's sale of Tipton West to Arrow Energy (Arrow finds its mark, April 3).

Christian Johnston and Alistair Lucas at Goldman Sachs JBWere plus Richard Phillips’ crew at Caliburn Partnership have meanwhile been advising Oz on the Minmetals transaction. Freehills’ Rodd Levy has also been involved in that process.

Advising CST was Azure Capital, which is also advising Fortescue on its deal with Hunan Valin. Hunan Valin received the tick from China’s regulatory bodies earlier this week.


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## Front Runner

Anyone know the target price for OZL (post this deal) according to macq, UBS, citi, CS etc? Not sure what gold/copper assumptions to use.

(ps thanks to some good 'doubling up', I am almost breaking even on my OZL holding which i initially paid $3+ for )

thanks all


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## Sean K

No idea about what funnymental value this may have with what it's got left, but the chart looks interesting now. Found a floor and is slowly moving up to this resistance line around .70. Breaking through there should release it you'd expect.


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## oldblue

The new OZL becomes almost a pure copper play where the key variables are the PoC, the USD/AUD exchange rate and of course the successful mining of Prominent Hill.
I'm sure the brokers have nice spreadsheets showing all sorts of outcomes from various combinations of the first two factors. 
Unfortunately, they're no better at this than any of the rest of us.


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## nioka

oldblue said:


> The new OZL becomes almost a pure copper play where the key variables are the PoC, the USD/AUD exchange rate and of course the successful mining of Prominent Hill.




Remember there is a gold component at Prominent Hill. PH has great potential and the company will be cashed up after the sale to MM is complete. OZL will  also be left with a majority holding in Toro Energy. So it is not just the copper at PH


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## oldblue

Quite right, nioka.

Hence the "almost".

I don't know how much gold we can expect from PH? -  and Toro I regard as a nice "maybe" for the future.
Copper is therefore what will make or break OZL, IMO.


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## JTLP

nioka said:


> Remember there is a gold component at Prominent Hill. PH has great potential and the company will be cashed up after the sale to MM is complete. OZL will  also be left with a majority holding in Toro Energy. So it is not just the copper at PH




Weren't they cashed up after the merger with ZFX? What happened to all that cha ching??? Hopefully they don't make the same mistake twice.


----------



## fighting41

http://www.macquarie.com.au/emg/prime/prime_prtradingpickofday_1.htm



> *Oz Minerals: Minmetals approved*
> 
> Oz Minerals (OZL) announced that the Treasurer of Australia had approved the Minmetals revised cash bid of US$1.2bn for all the assets of OZL except Prominent Hill and Martabe. Separately, OZL also announced the sale of Martabe for US$211m to Hong Kong listed China Sci-Tech Holdings (CST). According to Macquarie Research Equities MRE 27/4), the Treasurer’s approval of the revised Minmetals bid eliminates the greatest uncertainty in OZL’s quest to stand alone once more. Going forward, with the seeming inevitability of Minmetals’ deal completion following the Treasurer’s approval, *MRE see OZL as a stand out from its copper peers. It has low perceived geopolitical risk relative to PanAust (Laos) and Equinox (Zambia) and a stronger balance sheet to either*.





Macquarie has them at OUT PERFORM so the business channel said today

It would want to be some sort of performance.........


----------



## nioka

JTLP said:


> Weren't they cashed up after the merger with ZFX? What happened to all that cha ching??? Hopefully they don't make the same mistake twice.



There should be a change of management and board members in the very near future as the new OZ will be smaller,meaner and will not require either the fancy head office,as large a board or the same CEO. Hopefully most of the current top management will go with the sold businesses to MM. The next general meeting should be a firey one. OZ should end up with the head office in Adelaide (a logical place for the PH operations). There would be no excuses for repeating the mistakes of the past.
Then again the fat lady hasn't sung yet. We have no idea what is going on behind the scenes. Why have management continued to have roadshows promoting a business when there is supposed to have been a sale made of a large proportion of the assets. Are there still efforts being made to refinance and continue as is. There is only a $25m penalty if they pull out.
OZL is a secret society that treats shareholders as a necessary evil,to be tolerated but mainly ignored.
Regardless of all or any of the above the value of the company must be more than the current SP.


----------



## Front Runner

I see macq now has price target of 75c (DCF) and have upgraded to outperform. Dont know about any other brokers. 

I am still worried about a gold collapse if credit confidence bounces back, but as oldblue correctly states, SP most sensative to Cu and AUDUSD. In my humble experience in the industry, it is these input assumptions that have the most impact on the SP, not the fundamentals of the stock itself. Why do we trade equities again??! 

Macq assumptions below for 75c DCF if anyone has interest:


Price forecast 2008a 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Copper USc/lb 316 155 180 200 250 250
Zinc USc/lb 85 56 65 75 100 100
Gold US$/oz 877 928 963 925 800 805
Silver US$/oz 15.19 13.37 14.81 14.23 12.31 12.38
Nickel USc/lb 958 450 500 600 700 750
Lead USc/lb 95 53 60 70 85 100
A$/US$ exchange rate 0.85 0.67 0.74 0.80 0.80 0.80


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## oldblue

Good to see a bit of positive comment on OZL here.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=E51DFF8F-1871-E587-E1196E3634EF4202


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## PBH

kennas said:


> No idea about what funnymental value this may have with what it's got left, but the chart looks interesting now. Found a floor and is slowly moving up to this resistance line around .70. Breaking through there should release it you'd expect.




Release it to where though? 

I'm not a fundamental trader myself, however I don't completely disregard them either. 
At the end of the day we're now talking about a 1 mine company (= increased investor risk, should the mine not perform to expectations), with more than 3 BILLION outstanding shares.

Unless copper prices do something crazy, or there is a major resource find near Prominent Hill, I just cannot envision the sp getting over $0.85 for a very long time.

As for the $800 million in cash.......  Michelmore could spend his way through that in less than 6 months.... ;-)


----------



## oldblue

To be fair to M, he won't have the big capital spend on Prominent Hill from now on.
But I wouldn't worry about that. Reliable goss tells us that he will form part of the package that Minmetals are buying.


----------



## mez33

skc said:


> This is no longer a take-over. It is just an asset sale. Shareholders do not receive the cash, OZL does. It may choose to repay debt, or spend it on lollies.




OZ is already spending dollars it doesn't have on new furnishings from Schiavello furniture, and it ain't cheap! It makes you wonder!


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## bigdog

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dj-bhp-billiton-plays-down/story.aspx?guid={8E96D6F8-E813-4906-9105-8A65E071B3C6}&dist=msr_2

*DJ BHP Billiton Plays Down Speculation Over OZ Minerals - Report*

Last update: 4:42 p.m. EDT May 4, 2009
*May 04, 2009 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- DOW JONES NEWSWIRES*

BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) is playing down speculation it will bid for OZ Minerals Ltd. (OZL.AU), The Australian reported on its Web site Tuesday, citing recent comments by the head of BHP's uranium activities, Dean Dalla Valle.

Dalla Vale declined to comment on a takeover, but indicated the company wasn't interested in Prominent Hill, saying that the mine wasn't viewed as a tier-one asset, the Web site said. The mine would be OZ Minerals' sole asset after approval of the sale of other assets to China Minmetals Corp., the Web site said.

OZ Minerals wouldn't comment on Dalla Vale's remarks, which came after OZ Minerals recently gained an extension to its finance commitments, the Web site said.

Separately, The Australian reported that South Australia Premier Mike Rann had warned BHP that there would be no "blank cheque" for the expansion of its Olympic Dam mine, saying the cost to taxpayers was still being negotiated.

"I want to see at least a doubling of the processing that currently is undertaken in South Australia at Olympic Dam and I expect that to be fulfilled," the Web site quoted Rann as saying.

Full story: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25429314-643,00.html; http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25430230-5005200,00.html


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## magiceye

So I received my Notice of AGM today. What are peoples thoughts on Stephen Mayne of crikey.com.au fame running for board membership?


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## oldblue

Stephen Mayne has a bit of a track record of running for a seat on boards with "disgruntled" shareholders.
I believe he has minimal shares in a host of companies, largely to keep track of company affairs rather than for their investment merits.
He is a perceptive, entertaining journalist in my view but his suitability as a prospective company director hasn't been tested yet as far as I know.


----------



## Front Runner

Response from Jim Copland (Macquarie Securities) on this mornigns AFR.

_"If the Board decides that a recapitalisation is superior to asset sales it would allow Minmetals the opportunity to walk away. Understood Morgan Stanley's proposal is fully underwritten. (AFR, Pg44)"_

1. On OZL, with the world outlook looking better and better, China Minmetals looks increasingly like a lowball bid at US$1.2b (vs independent valuation of US$1.4 to US$1.6b). Even a month ago, that looked warranted given the risks inherent in any valuation, the dire credit markets and OZL's financial circumstances. Now, the market may be prepared to look again at the OZL zinc assets. 

2. OZL's senior management and Board has a fiduciary duty to shareholders to extract value for them, even despite vast massive "OZL fatigue" over the past 6 months.  At the very least, an alternative may draw out a higher Minmetals bid. 

3. One issue mitigating against a recapitalisation is that current shareholders have bought OZL on its copper, and zinc is probably a less favoured metal, hence the probably lower desire to have Century and Rosebery back in the mix. This could cause weakness in OZL share price if a recap was announced, with register turnover (yet again). but this would be a buying opportunity. 

4. Shareholder vote is 11 June, so it will have to happen fast.


----------



## laurie

And I for one will be voting *NO* do a spp there is more value to shareholders if that was to happen 

cheers laurie


----------



## OAKENFALL

I have also voted No on my ex Zinifex Holding, Oxiana Holding and Superannuation Fund holding acquired in disbelief at 54.5c which I think was about the low point. (Dosn't make up for personal side decline)

I have had a hard time coming to grips with the arrogance of the Directors.
When the MD secured himself a paracute to Minmetals I saw red.
We have been stone walled by these guys.

Merchant Banks are now saying better deals are possible, a couple I understand have even offered to underwite a rights issue at 40c to repay the debt.

When I first heard of the terrible mess the Co was in I emailed them and asked why a rights issue had not been done. Standard PR response - get lost we know whats best for your money!

We also badly need to vote in a new board on a No or Yes vote.

The Century Mine and Rosebury are class assets and why I invested in the first place. Prominant Hill is still iffy and very expensive for what it is.

The directors I think would be happy for the Co to be liqudated as they show no motivation to do anything - money from china for them I guess.
Good work Guys (Stuff the Sharholders!)

Not Happy with this one AT ALL.
Well thats my wrant.


----------



## JTLP

Just a question...why would OZL holders want Minmetals to walk away?

They were basically your lifeline when OZL were suspended...it could have ended in disaster for OZL. Now because the markets have "turned" (a big gamble on OZL's and others behalves) this Minmetals deal looks unlikely at the current price?

What happens if the market keels over again and metals prices slump?? Who is going to be left holding the baby then?


----------



## laurie

Then the banks will have to make a decision whether there is light at the end of the tunnel or not but what you are saying is a valid point not sure though we were told the full truth by management 

cheers laurie


----------



## oldblue

I'm with JTLP on this one.

The banks have proven to be unreliable as far as funding OZL in adverse markets is concerned. The board should certainly be looking at the prospects of getting an underwritten equity injection, to include current shareholders, in lieu of the Minmetals deal, but this would need to take account of OZL's present and future cash requirements if the metals markets were to tank again.

Overall, I'm coming to the conclusion that the merged OZL was always going to be a stretch unless metals had continued at their heady highs. Which of course almost everybody, not just OZL management, thought that they would. Given the huge expenditure still required for Prominent Hill at that stage, that applies especially to OXR. Hence the rationale from OXR's point of view for the merger.


----------



## Front Runner

In my opinion, it simply comes down to management incompetence. They failed to manage simple market risk. I agree with old blue that few people predicted such a sell off in commodities, however how easy would it have been for OZL to buy way waaay out of the money puts? With a strike either equal to or greater than the point in the metals price in which the company becomes unprofitable? Or if this too hard, would it be too much to ask that management inform the market when druming up support for the ZFX-OXR deal that the combined entity would be worthless if Cu/Ni goes below X price (post their capex)? Sure there would be some assumptions to make, but to me this is kind of disclosure would give investors more confidence and hence have a positive influence on the SP.


----------



## oldblue

Front Runner said:


> In my opinion, it simply comes down to management incompetence. They failed to manage simple market risk. I agree with old blue that few people predicted such a sell off in commodities, however how easy would it have been for OZL to buy way waaay out of the money puts? With a strike either equal to or greater than the point in the metals price in which the company becomes unprofitable? Or if this too hard, would it be too much to ask that management inform the market when druming up support for the ZFX-OXR deal that the combined entity would be worthless if Cu/Ni goes below X price (post their capex)? Sure there would be some assumptions to make, but to me this is kind of disclosure would give investors more confidence and hence have a positive influence on the SP.





The question of whether or not to hedge is a vexed one and certainly not costless. While I agree that out of the money puts would have been a great idea, in hindsight, it could also have been seen by the market *at the time the puts were bought* as a great waste of money.
I'm told that, generally speaking, investors in mining companies don't like to see much, if anything, in the way of hedging, preferring to take their chances on the unlimited upside. Buying put options is certainly a different matter but, as noted above, still has a cost and therefore diminishes the upside. This attitude has probably changed in the last year or so but you can see its effect in the current search for and popularity of unhedged gold producers.

I can't see a board ever agreeing to try to achieve a merger by divulging a point at which a company would be "worthless" and don't agree that this would have a beneficial effect on the SP. In fact, more likely to have the opposite effect. At the time, no-one was foreseeing the slump in metals prices so it wouldn't have been a consideration.

I agree that management doesn't come out of this business smelling of roses but still incline to the view that in the end they, and OZL, were overwhelmed by circumstances.


----------



## Front Runner

oldblue said:


> The question of whether or not to hedge is a vexed one and certainly not costless. While I agree that out of the money puts would have been a great idea, in hindsight, it could also have been seen by the market *at the time the puts were bought* as a great waste of money.
> I'm told that, generally speaking, investors in mining companies don't like to see much, if anything, in the way of hedging, preferring to take their chances on the unlimited upside. Buying put options is certainly a different matter but, as noted above, still has a cost and therefore diminishes the upside. This attitude has probably changed in the last year or so but you can see its effect in the current search for and popularity of unhedged gold producers.
> 
> I can't see a board ever agreeing to try to achieve a merger by divulging a point at which a company would be "worthless" and don't agree that this would have a beneficial effect on the SP. In fact, more likely to have the opposite effect. At the time, no-one was foreseeing the slump in metals prices so it wouldn't have been a consideration.
> 
> I agree that management doesn't come out of this business smelling of roses but still incline to the view that in the end they, and OZL, were overwhelmed by circumstances.





Agree that disclosing the point in the underlying where the company becomes worthless will have a negative impact in the SP in the short term, but in the long term I thought it might demonstrate that management dont indulge in BS, and are conscious of and managing risks to the business.

But maybe youre right, investors in miners might not care about that. They may just price the stock as a straight call option on the underlying metals and ignor all risks. Which might create a nice arb for us risk adverse types


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## bigdog

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-the-land-of-OZ-pd20090603-SMS8L?OpenDocument

Published 7:07 AM, 3 Jun 2009

   Robert Gottliebsen
*Pillaging the land of OZ*

The big rise in both metal prices and mining shares means that Australian superannuation funds and other investors in OZ Minerals are being taken to the cleaners.

They are being asked to approve the sale of prime, highly profitable mineral assets to the Chinese owned Minmetals group at a fraction of their worth. Unbelievably, we are seeing a duplication of the terrible series of events that took place in 2003 when MIM, which was also a prime Australian mineral asset, was sold to Xstrata for a fraction of its worth.

In the MIM catastrophe it was the directors and their advisors who had to take much of the blame. With OZ Minerals I have no criticism of the directors or the Grant Samuel independent expert’s report. Indeed it is Grant Samuel’s excellent report that provided the figures that show just how far below market value OZ Minerals shareholders were selling the asset. The 2009 OZ Minerals disaster is simply about deplorable banking. At least three of our four big bank chief executives should hang their heads in shame for what they are doing to Australian investors at OZ Minerals.

There is a lot of history in this matter and the banking events that took place at OZ Minerals in 2008 are in a totally different basket to the situation in June 2009, so let's not look back. 

Right now, according to Grant Samuel, OZ Minerals owes local and foreign banks about $A1.2 billion and the company is generating cash in excess of $300 million a year (KGB INTERROGATION: Andrew Michelmore, May 8). The total value of the OZ Minerals assets is several times the amount owing to the banks so these are loans covered by cash flow and asset values. 

However, the bank chief executives are effectively telling OZ Minerals shareholders that unless they sell key OZ Minerals mining assets to the Chinese at a fraction of their worth then "we will pull the plug on the company and effectively ruin you by flogging the assets off at low prices". No one uses those words, but in crude terms that will be the message from the Australian government's guaranteed banks to OZ Minerals' shareholders at the meeting on June 11.

Faced with that terrible banking stance, OZ Minerals' directors have no choice but to recommend that shareholders sell a series of mining assets which Grant Samuel says are worth about $US1.6 billion at current metal prices, for just $US1.2 billion. We are handing the Chinese an immediate paper profit of $US400 million simply because of bad banking. I have no criticism of Minmetals. When they made the offer it was a fair one. If Australians are stupid enough to sell assets at a fraction of their worth then we can’t blame the Chinese.

News this morning is also important to the deal (Rio sees downside copper risk, costs fall, June 3) – metal prices will fluctuate but it will take a huge collapse to wipe out the Minmetals discount.

The matter is made more complex because OZ Minerals CEO Andrew Michelmore is going to manage Minmetals and the assets being sold, plus a new CEO is coming to manage the Prominent Hill mine and the remaining assets of OZ. 

Despite this, surely there are a couple of bankers prepared to lend the company, say, $600 million (at high interest rates) which could be repaid in two or three years by advanced sales at today’s prices subject to a firm equity underwriting of, say, $600 million. Because the banks are saying to OZ Minerals directors that they will pull the plug on this highly profitable company unless there is firm proposal on the table, OZ Minerals shareholders have an awful dilemma.

Surely there is someone in the banking and underwriting industries who realises the damage this sort of unnecessary shareholder mutilation has on confidence in our markets.


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## oldblue

OZL seem to have made a complete hash of announcing approvals to the Minmetals deal today.
An announcement, a clarification and a further clarification!

Hate to say it, but it looks like management can't wait to move on.


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## YELNATS

Based on today's news, it may be premature to put a vote to accept Minmetal's offer to shareholders.

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=3614


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## YELNATS

Specifically, the statement:

"It hasn't gone to them (OZ Minerals) yet, that is why they can put out that statement," one source said.


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## GumbyLearner

Michaelmore looks done like a dinner.

Goodbye Michael-LESS. You are done! My vote is *NO*
You're done, goodbye!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Incompetence?? Purposelessness? Uselessness? Moronicness?? There is a more workable offer on the table from RBC Canada, but your DONE!!!!


Debt-laden miner OZ Minerals is expected to be handed a recapitalisation proposal on Friday that would avoid the need to sell key assets to a Chinese state-owned company.

New suitors have emerged, with OZ Minerals just days from finalising a deal with China Minmetals Non-ferrous Metals Company Ltd (Minmetals) that would get the Australian company out of debt.

It is believed the new proposal would avoid a huge sell-off of the company's key assets and is intended to be handed to OZ Minerals directors before the start of trade on Friday.

Under the plan, $US1 billion ($A1.25 billion) in fresh equity and convertible bonds and another $US200 million ($A249.94 million) in a working capital facility would be provided.

Such a move would mean OZ Minerals retains all its current assets and repays bankers the $1 billion it owes them by June 30.

It would not need to be voted by shareholders.


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## GumbyLearner

I don't agree with the OZ Minerals takeover by Minmetals.

All I can think of him is that he is a TOOL! Michaelmore is a TOOL! A Complete Tool.

Here's a TOOL video!


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## nioka

With all the action on OZL today I had expected to read about it on ASF. For those interested there has been a refinance arrangement offered as per the press release below.

SYDNEY, June 5 (Reuters) - Australian investment advisory firm RFC Group and Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) have submitted a fully underwritten, $1.2 billion recapitalisation proposal to Australia's OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL.AX), the banks said on Friday.

The proposal would involve $1 billion in equity and convertible bonds, as well as $200 million in working capital, and would be in competition to a $1.2 billion offer for most of the debt-laden miner's assets from Chinese firm Minmetals.

Moments earlier, OZ Minerals said it had received "indicative" and "non-binding" approaches but added there was no firm, alternative proposal worth pursuing.

OZ Minerals needs to raise money to repay A$1.1 billion in debts that are due by June 30. ($1=A$1.25) (Reporting by Sonali Paul and Denny Thomas


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## JTLP

WOW...I wonder how the Chinese are going to feel with Aussie Co's fleecing them at the last minute for better or different deals??? That is potentially billions of investment gone from their accts (OZ + RIO)...wonder if they will play hardball with other things or come out swinging and buying juniors?

I still think OZL is a bit of a shambles co. I sold out a few years ago but to watch this demise of such a promising company is quite saddening. Shareholders are getting taken for a ride here imo...


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## Eloise

I already voted no online last week - but thought this might be of some interest...

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/OZ-CBA-pd20090606-SR2H8?OpenDocument&src=sph

Published 11:03 AM, 6 Jun 2009
Last update 11:03 AM,  6 Jun 2009
Robert Gottliebsen

Giving OZ a chance

Late yesterday Commonwealth Bank chief executive Ralph Norris and I made contact over OZ Minerals and I have wonderful news for the OZ Minerals shareholders and board. 

Ralph Norris understands that the mining and economic environment has changed dramatically since the dark days of a few months ago. He is NOT, repeat NOT, going to pull the plug on any reasonable proposition that is better for OZ Minerals shareholders than the Minmetals proposal. Top marks to Ralph Norris. This is a big break through for OZ Minerals shareholders. 

Let me take you through the background. Next Thursday (June 11) OZ Minerals shareholders will be asked to approve the sale of a series of prime minerals assets to Chinese owned Minmetals for $US1.2 billion ($A1.5 billion), when Grant Samuel valued the assets, based on current metal prices, at around $1.6 billion, a $400 million transfer of wealth from Australian superannuation fund and private investor pockets to Minmetals. When Minmetals originally made the offer it was fair, but a lot has happened since. 

OZ Minerals directors, led by chairman Barry Cusack and chief executive Andrew Michelmore, are recommending the ridiculously low Minmetals offer to OZ Minerals shareholders because they are frightened that the banking consortium, led by the Commonwealth Bank, will appoint an administrator if they fail to approve the sale on Thursday. 

I described this problems in two commentaries, (Last chance for OZ Minerals, June 4) and (Pillaging the land of OZ, June 5). The June 3 commentary did not mention any bank by name, but the June 4 commentary mentioned Ralph Norris and the Commonwealth Bank. Both articles made it clear that there was no criticism of past actions by banks, directors or Minmetals in the previous climate.

By Thursday afternoon I heard that Ralph Norris wanted to contact me, but because of two close family funerals on Thursday and Friday I did not actually make contact with him until late Friday. We lost 24 hours and I apologise to OZ Minerals shareholders, however there may have also been an earlier conversation between Norris and Barry Cusack. .

OZ Minerals directors have The Royal Bank of Canada’s proposal before them to raise $US1 billion in fresh equity and convertible bonds. While at this stage, understandably, the Canadian proposal is non-binding, OZ Minerals directors now know that, and as long as they act properly, the rug will not be pulled from under them after the meeting on Thursday by the CBA. There are two renegade foreign banks in the consortium which are a danger but I think that is manageable.

In my view this is what OZ Minerals directors must do:

1) Forget the banks, and decide which is the best proposal for OZ Minerals shareholders. There is plenty of time to do that before the meeting.

2) If the best proposal is the Royal Bank of Canada plan then negotiate a clear timetable for the underwriters, which Barry Cusack and Andrew Michelmore must submit to the CBA.

3) I am not a lawyer and at this point I might get shot down, but I would consider adjourning the meeting to tighten the new proposal. That might risk the Minmetals deal but I don’t think Minmetals will walk away from a $400 million bonanza paper profit. They will hang in there. If they were smart they would lift their bid.

Ralph Norris was at pains to point out to me that he is not the “grim reaper” and wants to look after clients like OZ Minerals. There is actually now, theoretically, a potentially deeper problem at OZ Minerals.

Andrew Michelmore plans to go with Minmetals, so he is now being asked to act against the interests of his future employer. I have 100 per cent confidence that he will play this game in the interests of OZ Minerals shareholders, even though it might not be in his own personal interest.

Both Andrew Michelmore and Barry Cusack have done a wonderful job in getting OZ Minerals to this point.

But remember, my first point is important. Leaving aside bank pressure, what is the best deal for OZ Minerals shareholders?


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## oldblue

I'd be surprised if the OZL board isn't doing some overtime this weekend on the "new offer".
Whether it will come to anything or not, we'll just have to wait and see.


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## laurie

Why do people here think what's voted at the AGM is going to affect the board opinion, our vote was not taken into consideration when OH remuneration was passed by the board you could have an 90% NO vote and it's not binding 

cheers laurie


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## cheeyeen

I think the Oz Minerals board put it quite nicely in rejecting the so call new proposal to help existing shareholders from RBC.
"The board concluded that the structure of Proposal A was not in the interests of shareholders, that new investors in the proposed convertible bonds would be the principal beneficiaries of the proposal and that the certainty of the proposal being able to be completed was lacking,"
The convertible notes and placement are not going to existing shareholders anyway but rather to the "new investors".  So in short it sounds like RBC said OZ Mineral board should let them make the profit rather than Minmetals? Who say the new proposal is better for existing shareholders?  Existing shareholders are the losers no matter what since the sharp drop in the metals price, and the threatening of the 3 banks to pull the plug.  More interesting is the valuation of the assets.  So the independent experts say all the Oz Minerals' assets excluding the most valuable Prominal Hill mine are worth 1.6B.  But the banks actually feel so unsecured about their 1.1B loan on these 1.6B assets + Prominal Hill mine that they want to withdraw their loan to OZ Min?  I wonder what is the valuation of the "experts" from the 3 banks for OZ Min's assets?
Proposal B is also very nice.  I will do a capital raising for you from the market so you won't loss out on that 400M in valuation different.  But you will have to pay me a bit over 20% of that "saving" in real cash.  OZ Min has about 3B of shares issued at the moment, to raise 1.1B @40c u need close to 3B rights (to cover the fees for the merchant banks as well).  I wonder how many percent of this 3B shares will go to existing shareholders?  Lets face it, a company that needs fund urgently would not count on existing shareholders.  This is especially true if the shareholder base are not mainly big institutions who can come out with the cash right away.  We have seen the majority of the raising in the last few months where most of the raising come in the form of placements to the so called "sophisticate investors" and retail shareholders only provides a fraction of the money raise. So if existing shareholders "loss" 2B of the rights to someone else at 40c, how much money have they loss?  If you value the share at 60c/share, that's 400M.  Given the OZ share is near 90c and everyone think it is still undervalue.  I wonder how much in theory is existing shareholders loss out?  
And these are all good when the market looks good at the moment.  To quote what JTLP said before "What happens if the market keels over again and metals prices slump?? Who is going to be left holding the baby then?".  If we look at research by IMF about the amount of money that the US and UK banking system need to come up in the coming two years, everything is possible.
I actually think the OZ Min board has done a pretty good job given the tough situation that they are facing in the last few months.  To actually say they are not looking after existing shareholders is not fair to them in my opinion.


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## nioka

cheeyeen said:


> I actually think the OZ Min board has done a pretty good job given the tough situation that they are facing in the last few months.  To actually say they are not looking after existing shareholders is not fair to them in my opinion.




Apart from the OZL board and the CEO there are not many that would agree with you. Do you speak for them or MM. I voted NO,NO,NO to the MM take over. It is stealing. There is no other way to explain it.


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## prawn_86

nioka said:


> It is stealing. There is no other way to explain it.




LOL, sounds like any other form of business to me. When you buy something at a reduced price or at an auction is that also stealing?


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## oldblue

prawn_86 said:


> LOL, sounds like any other form of business to me. When you buy something at a reduced price or at an auction is that also stealing?




Exactly.

The Minmetals offer was the best around at the time ( and since, on the evidence at this point ) and infinitely preferable to a receivership in the hands of the banks.
There's been plenty of time for better offers to emerge and that hasn't happened.


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## haunting

I voted YES YES YES for MM because it is very clear that the second proposal is opportunistic, ad hoc, designed to enrich the hedge funds and take the small share holders for a ride. Voting for these leeches will not do OZL share holders any good.


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## nioka

haunting said:


> I voted YES YES YES for MM because it is very clear that the second proposal is opportunistic, ad hoc, designed to enrich the hedge funds and take the small share holders for a ride. Voting for these leeches will not do OZL share holders any good.



I voted NO. Even in administration,if it came to that, we should be able to get a better deal than any on the table at this stage.Probably an administrator could arrange refinance,after all this is a profitable company. The MM deal is a steal because it was made under circumstances that do not exist now. The CEO is now working for MM as their CEO and has no interest in getting a better bid up. Even now the fat lady hasn't sung and before she does one of the offers could advance. If there is a genuine "auction" then a fair price would be set,no a particular bid would be accepted,and there would be no "steal". I do not see that is what is happening at this point in time.


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## GREENS

If you vote yes than you expect:
1.	Zinc prices to trade at or around current levels in the longer term &
2.	Copper prices to be lower than current spot prices in the medium to longer term.

If you have any belief in the BRIC economies and there rapid industrialisation, especially that of China & India, wouldn’t you think that given one of the worst global recessions since the great depression of the 1930’s that metal prices have only recently just bottomed out? A large reason for metal price recovery in copper and zinc has been China stock piling as they realise they can grab a bargain at current prices, that won’t be around in a few years time and they know it. 

For zinc I have devoted a whole thread to its potential over the coming years, with many major zinc mines due to close or reduce production as they exhaust all resources and close. Add to this the current global financial crises and its impact on zinc prices which has led to an industry wide closure or downsizing of zinc mines across the globe and deferred a number of plans for zinc mine developments. Many of these closures and deferments will require zinc prices to push and hold around the $US0.90-1.00 for a good length of time before any decision is made to reopen or restart development and exploration programs. This in turn implies when economic conditions turn and demand for metals starts to rise again there will be a significant shortfall of zinc. *Hence the reason for Minmetals to pick up the assets of one of the worlds largest zinc producers*. What better way to get hold of zinc supply. 

I think the poor performance since the merger of the two companies to create OZ Minerals is attributable to one thing only* “poor management”. *The mining industry is very cyclical and goes through periods of downturn and hence the reason for good management to have plans in place to act swiftly when circumstances change.  Questions like this have to be asked. Why was OZ management so slow to react to the downturn in zinc prices? From my following of the zinc industry OZ was one of the last to react to falling metal prices. Instead of significantly curtailing or re-sizing operations along with reducing CAPEX (particularly at Century) to stop the bleeding of cash flow, it continued producing significant quantities of zinc at a hefty loss. Only months after every other zinc company made significant changes did OZ finally decide to curtail production and when it did it was almost insignificant. Development expenditure on Prominent Hill was not the main reason for cash outflow, it was Century!!! 

The Chinese are very intelligent people and very conservative investors, when they see an opportunity as cheap as this one they pounce. Look around people, China Inc is investing everywhere in zinc from the bigger end of town OZ Minerals and Perilya to the smaller end of Kagara and Terramin. Each of these companies has significant zinc assets. And why is China getting into these companies, because they see what the future holds from both a financial point of view and in terms of securing supply well into the future. 

I don’t hold any OZ shares and never have, but have followed it very closely over the years with great interest and intent of investing. From my point of view I couldn’t care less whether you vote for or against the Minmetals bid, but I think it’s good to take a step back and have a look at the long term picture as I think many of you are not even looking to the future. The OZ board and management have let you all down greatly since the merger (it’s a disgrace really) so why would you trust their recommendation now? They too only have their sights set on the short term! People forget how profitable Century, Rosebery and Golden Grove can be, and I think in the years to come they will be just as profitable at the height of the boom times. 

Good luck on making your decision.


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## oldblue

All good points, GREENS but shareholders in OZL don't have the luxury of being able to take the long, considered view at this time. OZL is heavily in debt to a consortium of banks who are demanding their money back and only reluctantly agreeing to month by month stays of execution on the strength of a very firm offer to take them out by Minmetals.

Other solutions havn't materialised, the latest offer looks equally unattractive to shareholders. At least the Minmetals deal will leave a viable company with the big, valuable Prominent Hill mine, only now hitting its straps, and a bundle of cash to the tune of $500m odd. In my view, that's a lot better than taking our chances in administration where the driving imperative will be not to maximise returns to shareholders but achieving enough to pay the banks their money.

Disc: Small shareholding.


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## haunting

nioka said:


> I voted NO...




The people who will be laughing all the way to the bank are the "fee collectors" and scumbags who caused the GFC not too long ago. CBA has been very generously telling OZL they will go easy on them, but, this bas**** is the one who forced OZL into such difficult situation in the first place. What's its fee from this new deal this time? I think they are all an opportunistic bunch of leeches. And I hate leeches.

Do they really believe in OZL and its assets and fair value? Crap! Not too long ago, if they wanted they could have bought OZL at a song plus PH without any objection from FIRB. They could have easily made billion if they are genuine. But they lack the capital and they lack guts. The risk was too high back then, and are you going to believe them that the risk going forward is not going to be just as high? Take a look at the long term bond in the US!

If CBA can pull the plug previously, there is no guarantee that they won't pull the plug again. It all boils down to whether it suits them and to their advantage while the risk associated with the deal is low. Yes, while the perception at this point is all good, all low risk, etc but there is no guarantee on that, especially risk. The one that is taking all the risk are the small share holders who had been holding OZL all these while, and what is their cost? They are the ones who are being scammed before, and now they are being scammed one more time.

Anyway, to cut it short, the plot from these people are pretty obvious and opportunistic, get in the ride, squeeze for the maximum, exit and bye bye. They are no risk taker and the interest charges from the financiers will make sure they will flog OZL in no time at all, and then we will see OZL going through the whole saga of looking for rescue one more time?

But this time, the Chinese won't be around. They don't usually forget if you do not know by now.

It's a big YES for me.


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## GumbyLearner

Good points Greens. Michael-less didn't hedge and now because he has a cozy setup and is selling off the company for a song. Of course it's all in the best interests of shareholders. :crap::bowdown: :screwy: Yeah right!! 

Who thinks a future Minmetals/Perliya tie-up is on the cards?  

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.


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## GumbyLearner

haunting said:


> The people who will be laughing all the way to the bank are the "fee collectors" and scumbags who caused the GFC not too long ago. CBA has been very generously telling OZL they will go easy on them, but, this bas**** is the one who forced OZL into such difficult situation in the first place. What's its fee from this new deal this time? I think they are all an opportunistic bunch of leeches. And I hate leeches.




Your right there haunting there are leeches involved. But remember OZL management has a few ticks on it's board as well. It is also important to note that at least leeches can be used in operative procedures to remove disease, but ticks well, there nothing other than a bunch of parasites piggy-backing on shareholders in this instance. So if the CBA can work operatively as a leech to remove the tick, that is parasitically surviving and diminishing the value of the company.  

THEN,

I take the leech over a tick any day. 

I vote NO.


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## haunting

Below is a list of reports on China. Much of them have very little to do with OZL, sorry if you feel they are inappropriate in this thread. What I like to point out is the economic relationship between China and Australia and the consequence if it is mishandled. At this point, my feeling is it has been badly mishandled. And yet, if you were to read through these reports, you won't believe any of the writer has a tinge of concern of retaliation from China, barring John G.

Most believe Australia has what China needed, so they will come back, and they will, and they want to invest here regardless. Correct? I hope so. And I hope all these writers are right and they know what they are talking about.

If you subscribe to the media in the past few months on Chinalco is a state controlled enterprise then you will have to buy this argument that if Chinalco were to feel betrayed and screwed by RIO and indirectly or directly by the OZ govt,  then all it needs is for someone high up in the state to take offence with the Chinalco treatment and decide to retaliate against RIO, BHP and Australia, economically speaking. Is this scenario possible? (That's what happened to Tiananmen because of one man, Li Peng who was dead fast against the students and hell bent to smash the "revolt", so, there's no guarantee that such a person doesn't exist right now in the Chinese politburo. We will never know.)

Assuming the worst and let's ask these questions:

1) if the Chinese steel mills were to buy (like being ordered) bulk of their iron ore from Vale (say 80/20 or 70/30), what would that do to both BHP, RIO and the Aussie economy?

2) if the Chinese were to arrange a deal with Vale through the Brazilian President Lula, a long term negotiated trade, what would that do to the Aussie export?

3) if the Chinese were to channel all their foreign investments away from Australia (due to FIRB rules and its lack of transparency) and concentrate them in South America, Central Asia and Africa, what would that do to the local small mines and the loss of job?

All conjectures. None is true and there's no proof. But I will be watching  the Chinese closely in the next 6 months, their actions will tell. Till then, don't rest easy. Don't kid yourself they are not hurting and they love Australia like you do. 

Never take your Chinese friend for granted.
Never take your Chinese enemy for granted.
And never take your Chinese customer for granted, especially when they buy half of what you sell. 

Without the Chinese business, the Aussie economy would have been under water like the rest of the Anglo Saxon economies. Right now, the good will between the two countries has been damaged, there is no telling if they will react pragmatically or irrationally. So if you want to build a rosy future of the local economy you better not include the Chinese in it because they are now a wild card.

Just wait and see.

Australia's Baltic burden

Fresh China push for steel consolidation likely

Chinalco exit opens way to others

Part one of the Rio revenge likely to see China steer investment beyond Australia


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## GumbyLearner

And that's the beauty of a democracy isn't it? 

China wants all the trimmings of the free market but without democracy for it's own people.

Well, I bought shares in an Australian company. 

I'm just paying my way and having my say.

As a shareholder who feels like he's been ripped-off in a deal to line the pockets
of failed management. 

It's great to be able to *VOTE*


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## YELNATS

Eloise said:


> Andrew Michelmore plans to go with Minmetals, so he is now being asked to act against the interests of his future employer. I have 100 per cent confidence that he will play this game in the interests of OZ Minerals shareholders, even though it might not be in his own personal interest.
> 
> Both Andrew Michelmore and Barry Cusack have done a wonderful job in getting OZ Minerals to this point.
> 
> But remember, my first point is important. Leaving aside bank pressure, what is the best deal for OZ Minerals shareholders?




I'll give Gottliebsen's article the benefit of the doubt as a piece of business satire, especially the bit about Michelmore & Cusack having done a "wonderful job". 

If Michelmore is planning to go to Minmetals, how can he continue as the chief executive of OZL? A clear case of conflict of interest so the Chairman needs to terminate him forthwith.

As a substantial holder of OZL (previously both ZFX and OZR) now I have even less faith in OZL's management, in terms of making a good decision about its' future.


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## bigdog

What is the date for voting?

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...abotage-pd20090608-STFB8?OpenDocument&src=kgb

Published 9:51 PM, 8 Jun 2009
Last update 9:51 PM,  8 Jun 2009
   Robert Gottliebsen
*OZ in self-sabotage?*

The board of OZ Minerals have before them three bidders, all of which are putting forward proposals that are promising, but have serious gaps and deficiencies. 

Every other board in the country would sit down with bidders and negotiate to improve their offer. This is the point I made in my earlier commentary (OZ Minerals' new direction, June 8). 

But the board of OZ Minerals has decided not to negotiate, choosing instead to stick with the grossly inadequate Minmetals offer. Why would a board that has so far looked after its shareholders suddenly seem to be acting against their interests? 

As I understand it, they decided that the statement of Commonwealth Bank chief executive Ralph Norris to Business Spectator (Giving OZ a chance, June 6) was not sufficient to break away from the Minmetals bid. What OZ Minerals wanted was an assurance from the banking syndicate that the rug would not be pulled from under them, or an assurance from Norris that he would cover any renegade banks in the syndicate (there are two foreign banks who want their money). 

As of Monday evening, OZ Minerals had not received that assurance. The board has been sailing close to the wind for months and were not prepared to risk being put into administration by starting new negotiations. It is also highly likely that Minmetals played hard ball. 

OZ Minerals is probably more solvent than half the companies on the ASX list. It is in wonderful shape with a $300 million annual cash flow. 

I have seen lots of situations where companies close to the brink are cornered, but I have never seen a prosperous company in this predicament. 

If the directors believe they are unable to act in the interests of shareholders by conducting an auction, then maybe the company is better off in administration where the administrator either conducts the auction and/or restructures the company in the interests of shareholders (and the banks). 

Administration is of course a high risk course, but when a board is so powerless that it cannot negotiate with its bidders to get the best deal for shareholders, maybe it is time to consider the option of putting in an administrator who will have that power.


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## cheeyeen

The announcement actually said CEO Andrew Michelmore wasn't involved in the decision to reject the new proposals.


"...The board voted that neither of the two proposals offered superior value to shareholders than the offer from Minmetals. Chief executive Andrew Michelmore did not participate in discussions, OZ Minerals said, so as to ensure there was no actual or perceived conflict of interest..."


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## oldblue

Having now studied OZL's announcement re the two last minute proposals I'm not surprised that the board rejected Proposal A out of hand. 
There's not enough detail on Proposal B to come to the same firm conclusion but mention of the proposed fee of $87m leads me to think that, like Proposal A, it too was an incomplete, opportunistic attempt to take advantage of a vulnerable situation.


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## Eloise

From the Business spectator..outlining what i assume was proposal b??

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/files/Macquarie-Investor-Presentation-Project-Scotland.pdf


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## oldblue

Eloise said:


> From the Business spectator..outlining what i assume was proposal b??
> 
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au/files/Macquarie-Investor-Presentation-Project-Scotland.pdf




But it doesn't outline what the proposal is, who's going to do the recapitalisation, on what basis and at what cost.


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## oldblue

I see the recapitalisation would involve issuing 2,647m new shares ( at what price?  who to? ), added to the existing 3,121m shares.
" Post recapitalisation, with the the Sale Assets retained, OZL indicative value is estimated at 92cps."

Oddly enough, that's about where the existing shares are trading. I wonder what Macquarie propose the issue price of the new shares should be?


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## haunting

The key is the so called "valuation", and it varies. How much does an asset worth? Once the deal is off, and if there's no buyer around willing to make an offer, it could worth as low as 40c. Right now it is trading at 92.5c, a clear reflection that the funds and the big boys are playing it up. They will be the eventual big winners. The big losers, as usual, are the small investors. I got bulk of mine at around <50c (as suggested in another forum), so I can live with all these craps. 

But as a long term play, these leeches shouldn't be given any chance of success as this will only  encourage them more. They are in for the money, for themselves, and there's nothing for those who are thinking of long term and in a bigger longer picture, they muddy the image of mining industry here in Australia and could potentially jeopardise future investment into the sector. They are the people who give Aussie mining sector a bad name, these leeches and their hired guns. jmv.

In any case, vote what you like since as pointed out the "beauty" here is you can vote. I have voted mine, next I will collect my due. I am taking a short term approach here and couldn't careless who win or who lose - oops, I actually care, I hate these leeches and ex-master of universe.


----------



## YELNATS

cheeyeen said:


> The announcement actually said CEO Andrew Michelmore wasn't involved in the decision to reject the new proposals.
> 
> 
> "...The board voted that neither of the two proposals offered superior value to shareholders than the offer from Minmetals. Chief executive Andrew Michelmore did not participate in discussions, OZ Minerals said, so as to ensure there was no actual or perceived conflict of interest..."




I know that, but it does still seem peculiar that; 

1. for reasons of an actual or a perceived conflict of interest, the chief executive is not able to participate in discussions of such importance to the company. My point is that they need to appoint a chief executive who is able to participate in such discussions.

2. in the absence of any information to the contrary, apparently Michelmore would be presumably able to return to his old job, if they do not go ahead with the Minmetals proposal.


----------



## oldblue

YELNATS said:


> I know that, but it does still seem peculiar that;
> 
> 1. for reasons of an actual or a perceived conflict of interest, the chief executive is not able to participate in discussions of such importance to the company. My point is that they need to appoint a chief executive who is able to participate in such discussions.
> 
> 2. in the absence of any information to the contrary, apparently Michelmore would be presumably able to return to his old job, if they do not go ahead with the Minmetals proposal.





It's all a bit late for that. The "proposals " were received late last week and the vote is tomorrow!
In the circumstances it's only right that M shouldn't be involved in discussion or decision on a matter in which he is so intimately involved.
Yes, I'd imagine that all bets are off if the Minmetals deal falls through and M carries on as before.


----------



## nioka

Announcement out re the offers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The announcement does give good reasons why the new offers are inferior to the MM offer. However it may still be that the fat lady is still rehearsing the tune and it may bring out a better offer. The deal is still in play as I see it. The worst that will happen is the MM bid to succeed and that is still OK as we still will have PH and cash. We will have new managemant and a new board so all is not lost. We just have not gained as much as was possible. Tomorrow is a new day with distinct new possibilities.

OZ is still worth more than the current SP regardless of tomorrows outcome.That is how I am looking at the picture DYOR


----------



## cheeyeen

oldblue said:


> It's all a bit late for that. The "proposals " were received late last week and the vote is tomorrow!
> In the circumstances it's only right that M shouldn't be involved in discussion or decision on a matter in which he is so intimately involved.
> Yes, I'd imagine that all bets are off if the Minmetals deal falls through and M carries on as before.




Exactly.  There is no point in getting a new CEO now as you can't expect the new CEO that is a few days in the job to come up with a reasonable suggestion.  
If the deal didn't eventuate, I don't think he will stay.
There is still no offer on the table yet.  The document shown by businessspectator is not being released.  Actually, I don't understand what is it for Macquarie to come up with that proposal if it is not getting a cut.. is it a major shareholder itself?  Why would they want to risk offending the Chinese if they don't get anything in the deal??


----------



## YELNATS

bigdog said:


> The board has been sailing close to the wind for months and were not prepared to risk being put into administration by starting new negotiations. It is also highly likely that Minmetals played hard ball.
> 
> OZ Minerals is probably more solvent than half the companies on the ASX list. It is in wonderful shape with a $300 million annual cash flow.
> 
> I have seen lots of situations where companies close to the brink are cornered, but I have never seen a prosperous company in this predicament.
> 
> If the directors believe they are unable to act in the interests of shareholders by conducting an auction, then maybe the company is better off in administration where the administrator either conducts the auction and/or restructures the company in the interests of shareholders (and the banks).




The way I see it now, OZL managment is very shaky and entirely risk averse will probably go with the Minmetals offer, on the basis of "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".


----------



## oldblue

cheeyeen said:


> Exactly.  There is no point in getting a new CEO now as you can't expect the new CEO that is a few days in the job to come up with a reasonable suggestion.
> If the deal didn't eventuate, I don't think he will stay.
> There is still no offer on the table yet.  The document shown by businessspectator is not being released.  Actually, I don't understand what is it for Macquarie to come up with that proposal if it is not getting a cut.. is it a major shareholder itself?  Why would they want to risk offending the Chinese if they don't get anything in the deal??




I think the "cut" for Macquarie might have been of the order of $87m, if that part of another leak is accurate.


----------



## YELNATS

cheeyeen said:


> There is no point in getting a new CEO now as you can't expect the new CEO that is a few days in the job to come up with a reasonable suggestion.




In fact Mr Michelmore has resigned and Mr Terry Burgess appointed in his place. Refer to May 27 announcement.
https://www.sharetrading.netwealth.com.au/do/secure/liveAnnouncements#
Sorry, I missed that.


----------



## YELNATS

YELNATS said:


> In fact Mr Michelmore has resigned and Mr Terry Burgess appointed in his place. Refer to May 27 announcement.
> https://www.sharetrading.netwealth.com.au/do/secure/liveAnnouncements#
> Sorry, I missed that.




This link may be better.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00956377


----------



## oldblue

YELNATS said:


> In fact Mr Michelmore has resigned and Mr Terry Burgess appointed in his place. Refer to May 27 announcement.
> https://www.sharetrading.netwealth.com.au/do/secure/liveAnnouncements#
> Sorry, I missed that.




Yes, a conditional resignation and  appointment, subject to the Minmetals deal being consumated.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Thursday should be fun. 

I wonder how many questions or how much question time will be gagged or guillotined by Bazza and the boys.  

Hats off to them for their timely press releases over the last few weeks about rejecting other proposals. 

It would have been fantastic if they had kept us just as up-to-the-minute during the commissioning of PH and the trading halt. Maybe they hired a new PR crew, like the one that wasted millions on an expensivee Duran-Duranesque promotion when OXR and ZFX merged. Just like that stupid merger promo video, the Minmetals deal is a real BS deal for shareholders. IMHO!


----------



## GumbyLearner

An important note.

Shareholders who have already lodged their vote by proxy have the right to cancel their proxy and re-cast their vote at the meeting tomorrow.


----------



## oldblue

Stephen Bartholomeusz is always worth reading.

Here's his latest.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...r-value-pd20090610-SV5QV?OpenDocument&src=kgb


----------



## cheeyeen

oldblue said:


> Stephen Bartholomeusz is always worth reading.
> 
> Here's his latest.




I like his writing much better than those by Robert Gottliebsen.  Reporting the facts and provides good analysis/comment of the situation without judgement.  This is how journalist should write I think.  The recent articles from R.Gottliebsen are all about telling what the board of OZ Minerals should do.  Especially the last two articles sound so desperate that I was thinking he either has a big holding in OZL or he is behind the RBC or Mac proposals.  

S. Bartholomeusz points out that the current debt extension is subjected to the Minmetals offer still valid.  So CBA has said they will re-evaluate the situation, how about the other two banks? 

So there were two proposals, the first one is about RBC wants a piece of the action but not much for existing shareholders.  The second proposal is still in the making the night before the vote (Indeed, Macquarie just called it off because they can't get the deal ready).

The article said OZL board did try to auction off the assets at that time.  The banks want to pull the plug and no one shows up in the auction room.  Minmetals offer was the only one around at that time.  

A previous article in BusinessSpectator mentioned that it costs OZL 95M in fees just to extend the bank facilities.  And if Minmetals deal didn't go through, it will incur
"...for OZ its break fee of $US12.06 million, representing 1 per cent of Minmetals' $1.206 billion offer, is relatively small as far as break fees go. But what does add up are the bank facility fees that OZ would have to pay if the deal was called off and a possible $US105 million if a default on its convertible bonds is triggered. Obviously OZ would also have a principal $1.2 billion of debt to refinance as well after June 30."

That sounds like by calling off the Minmetal deal the company might incur more than 200M of fees (USD12M breakfee is small, probably another AUD95M for bank facilities extension, and then possibility of USD105M if no deal comes true and they default on their bonds).  I can understand why the board want absolute certainty in any proposal.  And why it is hard for other proposals to stack up... go blame the banks on this.


----------



## oldblue

Macquarie pulls it's bid.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/macquarie-pulls-oz-minerals-deal-20090611-c3rx.html

It's up to the vote now.


----------



## oldblue

Minmetals has sweetened its offer!

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25617571-643,00.html


----------



## LeeTV

oldblue said:


> Minmetals has sweetened its offer!
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25617571-643,00.html



And there was much rejoicing..


----------



## LeeTV

*OZ Minerals shareholders approve Minmetals deal* 

Over 90% of OZ Minerals Limited (OZL) shareholders approved Minmetals offer to buy $1.386 billion worth of the Australian miners assets. On Thursday afternoon, the Chinese company said it would complete the deal within one week and set up a new Australian company named Minerals and Mining Group Limited. 

Earlier in the day OZ Minerals reaffirmed its commitment to the Minmetals deal in the face of speculation of differing recapitalisation proposals. At the same time Minmetals had increased its offer for the Australian company by 15%, or US$180 million.

At the time Minmetals said the increased offer was subject to shareholder approval. In turn, OZ Minerals urged shareholders to vote in favour of the deal at the company’s AGM, which got underway before lunch today.

OZ Minerals said the updated offer fell in the lower end of the range given by the ‘Independent Expert’s’ range of US$1.385 billion to US$1.6 billion, however noted that incremental cost savings relative to a recapitalisation proposal such as underwriting fees, break fees and corporate overhead costs, placed the proposal at the upper end of that stated value of the company.

OZ Minerals chairman Barry Cusack said he was pleased with the updated offer.

"Since February 2009, Minmetals has been the only entity that has offered OZ Minerals a complete solution to its refinancing issues,” Mr Cusack said.

The company said the deal from Minmetals was the only one to satisfy certain key criteria, including being a binding agreement and satisfying regulatory conditions.

The company added that the deal was the only one that allowed shareholders to retain control of Prominent Hill.

OZ Minerals said had the deal not received shareholder approval Minmetals would have considered its right to terminate the deal, which would have placed the Australian miner in a difficult position, as it needs to refinance debt.

OZ Minerals shares were halted at 89c


http://www.egoli.com.au/news/post/OZ-Minerals-touts-Minmetals-deal.aspx


----------



## amazme

LeeTV said:


> *OZ Minerals shareholders approve Minmetals deal*
> 
> Over 90% of OZ Minerals Limited (OZL) shareholders approved Minmetals offer to buy $1.386 billion worth of the Australian miners assets. On Thursday afternoon, the Chinese company said it would complete the deal within one week and set up a new Australian company named Minerals and Mining Group Limited.
> 
> Earlier in the day OZ Minerals reaffirmed its commitment to the Minmetals deal in the face of speculation of differing recapitalisation proposals. At the same time Minmetals had increased its offer for the Australian company by 15%, or US$180 million.
> 
> At the time Minmetals said the increased offer was subject to shareholder approval. In turn, OZ Minerals urged shareholders to vote in favour of the deal at the company’s AGM, which got underway before lunch today.
> 
> OZ Minerals said the updated offer fell in the lower end of the range given by the ‘Independent Expert’s’ range of US$1.385 billion to US$1.6 billion, however noted that incremental cost savings relative to a recapitalisation proposal such as underwriting fees, break fees and corporate overhead costs, placed the proposal at the upper end of that stated value of the company.
> 
> OZ Minerals chairman Barry Cusack said he was pleased with the updated offer.
> 
> "Since February 2009, Minmetals has been the only entity that has offered OZ Minerals a complete solution to its refinancing issues,” Mr Cusack said.
> 
> The company said the deal from Minmetals was the only one to satisfy certain key criteria, including being a binding agreement and satisfying regulatory conditions.
> 
> The company added that the deal was the only one that allowed shareholders to retain control of Prominent Hill.
> 
> OZ Minerals said had the deal not received shareholder approval Minmetals would have considered its right to terminate the deal, which would have placed the Australian miner in a difficult position, as it needs to refinance debt.
> 
> OZ Minerals shares were halted at 89c
> 
> 
> http://www.egoli.com.au/news/post/OZ-Minerals-touts-Minmetals-deal.aspx




So as an average mum and dad trader what does this mean for shareholders? Will the offer be increased to shareholders at all as currently as we all know its trading beyond what Minmetals has offered...


----------



## oldblue

amazme said:


> So as an average mum and dad trader what does this mean for shareholders? Will the offer be increased to shareholders at all as currently as we all know its trading beyond what Minmetals has offered...




There's no offer to shareholders.

Minmetals is buying assets from OZL which leaves that company as pretty much Prominent Hill mine plus cash, after paying back the banks. Minmetals upped their offered price by 15% which increases OZL's cash, a lot of which will be required for the ongoing development of Prominent Hill.

It's up to the market now to decide whether OZL shares are worth more, less or the same as the 90c approx that they have traded at recently.


----------



## LeeTV

oldblue said:


> There's no offer to shareholders.
> 
> Minmetals is buying assets from OZL which leaves that company as pretty much Prominent Hill mine plus cash, after paying back the banks. Minmetals upped their offered price by 15% which increases OZL's cash, a lot of which will be required for the ongoing development of Prominent Hill.
> 
> It's up to the market now to decide whether OZL shares are worth more, less or the same as the 90c approx that they have traded at recently.




I would expect the SP to rise due to OZL now being debt free, cashed up and also due to the fact that the 15% increase was announced at the last minute, but you never know. I have held this dog of a stock for some time now so here's hoping.


----------



## jbocker

From the ASX site
"OZ MINERALS LIMITED (OZL)
OZ Minerals Limited is Australia’s third largest diversified mining company, it's the world’s second largest producer of zinc, a substantial producer of copper, lead, gold and silver and is also growing its production of nickel. OZ Minerals was formed in 2008 through a merger of Australian based, international mining companies Oxiana Limited and Zinifex Limited."

Sounded impressive then, what is OZL going to quote now...?


----------



## oldblue

Don't worry, Spin doctors, sorry, PR people can come up with some wonderful descriptions when paid enough!

But seriously, Prominent Hill is a pretty good asset of considerable size and with potential to be a lot better. The biggest downside for OZL may be the loss of diversification that the other mines provided. PH is a very big bet on the price of copper, with gold a relatively minor contributor.


----------



## LeeTV

Opened @ 1.05, currently up 14% in morning trade with a good buy to sell ratio of 2:1 respectively. Copper up 4% over night.


----------



## amazme

LeeTV said:


> Opened @ 1.05, currently up 14% in morning trade with a good buy to sell ratio of 2:1 respectively. Copper up 4% over night.




I got out today after buying in at $1.00 in Oct last year. So i've broken even after a crazy 8 month ride. Im running as far away as possible from this stock. Lots learned for me!!


----------



## LeeTV

amazme said:


> I got out today after buying in at $1.00 in Oct last year. So i've broken even after a crazy 8 month ride. Im running as far away as possible from this stock. Lots learned for me!!



I don't blame you and considered doing so myself but will see how this pans out. Debt free and copper prices on the rise hopefully they don't screw this up, again.


----------



## oldblue

There's certainly plenty of risk still there, particularly the reliance on continuing strength in the price of copper.
It wouldn't surprise me to see the SP retrace a bit once the relief and euphoria subside, unless the PoC stays firm.


----------



## rustyheela

im looking to buy into Oz, coz now it will be a near pure copper play from one of the largest on stream high grade copper mines in the world and its in our backyard.

 Wouldnt be suprised if BHP made a tilt in the near future as it is just down the road and could provide synergies until opympic dam comes on stream and Oz has divested all the other bits


----------



## tehnoob

rustyheela said:


> Wouldnt be suprised if BHP made a tilt in the near future as it is just down the road and could provide synergies until opympic dam comes on stream and Oz has divested all the other bits




I wouldn't count on BHP having a go as they don't consider Prominent Hill a 'Tier 1' asset.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-BHP-cools-OZ-talk-RQUXC?opendocument&src=rss


----------



## crayfish

tehnoob said:


> I wouldn't count on BHP having a go as they don't consider Prominent Hill a 'Tier 1' asset.
> 
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-BHP-cools-OZ-talk-RQUXC?opendocument&src=rss




Agreed, I think you should definitely look a little further rusty...barrick, xstrata, newcrest, and thats if there's good evidence that Prominent Hill is working and has future potential.

Given the 50%+ copper cons plus minor gold creds that are coming out of there at the moment, most smelters would die for that material (and low impurties)...so it all looks good so far. Depends whether some company wants to look at it as a base metal mine or a multi million ounce gold deposit.


----------



## trader10

*Time has come to start buying OZL*

After today's news.... OZL MINERALS DEBT FREE, I think it's time that many managed funds and investors will start buying OZL.... trend is up from here IMHO.....base and precious metals prices are another story all together....we are talking a aussie company story that went totally wrong to a recovery......

OZ Minerals retires debt after completing sale to Minmetals

June 17 2009, 7:10PM
OZ Minerals Ltd has wiped out its crippling $1 billion plus debt after settling its major asset sale to China Minmetals Non-Ferrous Metals Co Ltd (Minmetals).

The miner now has a substantial kitty of more than $700 million, soon to be bolstered to $1 billion, to help restart exploration projects.

OZ Minerals was once Australia's third largest diversified miner but the sale of most of its assets to Minmetals leaves it a sole-asset company, focused on the Prominent Hill gold and copper mine in South Australia. 
The company confirmed on Wednesday the divestment of the assets to Minmetals had raised $US1.354 billion ($A1.69 billion) after settlement adjustments.

OZ Minerals had been teetering on the brink of administration since it ran into trouble refinancing about $1.2 billion in debt facilities late last year.

But its financiers extended the expiry date of debt facilities several times to allow the Minmetals deal to proceed.

OZ Minerals chairman Barry Cusack said the completion of the deal meant all the company's bank loan facilities had been repaid.

The miner was left with a cash balance of more than $US575 million ($A727 million).

This is expected to be bolstered by a further $US211 million ($A264.8 million) from the cash sale of its Martabe gold project in Indonesia to another Chinese party, China Sci-Tech Holdings Ltd, pending the approval of that company's shareholders.

"We have now retired all of our bank loan facilities, which has been a critical issue for the company for more than six months," Mr Cusack said.

"OZ Minerals is now smaller and more focused in terms of its operations but is in a significantly enhanced financial position.

"We have ... a rejuvenated balance sheet with a substantial cash balance and we are now also beginning to accrue revenue from the Prominent Hill mine."

The miner says it will now focus on restarting exploration projects and development studies that were suspended last year.

The company says it has $US105 million ($A131.8 million) of convertible bonds and fully secured bank letters of credit of about $A20 million principally to meet its mining regulatory obligations.

Now the the sale has been completed, Andrew Michelmore has resigned as managing director, and will head up Minmetals in Australia.

Bruce Loveday is OZ Minerals' acting chief executive until Terry Burgess commences the job in early August.

State One Stockbroking resource analyst Sam Berridge told AAP that it was quite likely that OZ Minerals would pursue acquisitions, but could face stiff competition from other cashed-up miners and Chinese parties.

"OZ is not alone in having a fair bit of cash in the kitty and they're going to be competing with the Chinese for securing top-tier assets," Mr Berridge said.

"Metal prices are still a long way below where they were earlier last year, therefore you'd assume that base metal assets should be cheap.

"But what I'm hearing ... is that asset prices haven't really come back that far.

"People are probably still unrealistic about the value of less than optimal projects that could be developed at some point.

"It has to be reasonable otherwise it ruins the economics of the project.

"OZ will probably run into the problem."

Prominent Hill began producing in February.

OZ Minerals shares closed up 5.5 cents at 96.5 cents on Wednesday. 
__________________


----------



## LeeTV

Can someone please explain these after hour trades tia 

04:56:35 PM 1.080 80,363 86,792.04 XTSXOS 
04:50:48 PM 1.080 321,451 347,167.08 XTSXOS 
04:13:14 PM 1.105 1,449,272 1,601,445.56 XTOS 
04:10:56 PM 1.090 22,459 24,480.31   
04:10:56 PM 1.090 11,933 13,006.97


----------



## LeeTV

Nevermind. Someone at HotCopper was kind enough to explain it to me. I have finally offloaded half of my stake in this mob. Sick of looking at it and glad to be rid of it. Moved the $ somewhere better, I hope.


----------



## Buster

Hey LeeTV



LeeTV said:


> Nevermind. Someone at HotCopper was kind enough to explain it to me.




Care to share what you found out from the HC site??

This is to generate more than 100 characters..

Cheers,

Buster


----------



## LeeTV

Buster said:


> Hey LeeTV
> 
> 
> 
> Care to share what you found out from the HC site??
> 
> This is to generate more than 100 characters..
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Buster




xt crossing

sx portfolio special crossing

os overseas trade

The above after trades are called "Portfolio Special Crossing" in short: These are brokers making adjustments on trades which took place in the day,and have to be made transparent to the market, so usually done after hours.


----------



## bigdog

http://business.smh.com.au/business/prominent-hill-a-takeover-target-20090827-f17q.html

*Prominent Hill a takeover target*
Barry FitzGerald
August 28, 2009 
THE OZ Minerals chief executive of less than a month, Terry Burgess, hopes he gets the chance to grow the now cashed-up and debt free copper/gold producer before it becomes the subject of a takeover bid.

While no group has expressed ''any recent interest'' in bidding for the group, Mr Burgess is aware numerous potential bidders had the remaining operating asset, the Prominent Hill mine in South Australia, under the microscope when OZ was going through its debt refinancing woes.

The woes are a thing of the past, but OZ's June half result, published yesterday, showed the scars left behind by the drastic debt restructuring that culminated in $US1.59 billion ($1.92 billion) in operating asset sales to China's Minmetals and China Sci-Tech.

The sales enabled OZ to pay off all bank debt and leave it with $1 billion in cash at the end of June. But a loss on the asset sales dragged the group to a net loss of $580.7 million for the June half. The result is not comparable with the previous corresponding because of the huge changes in the underlying business.

OZ's preferred focus was on the performance of its remaining operating asset, the new Prominent Hill mine. Its contribution at the earnings-before-interest-and-tax level for the two months it was deemed to no longer be a development project was $19.4 million on revenue of $89.6 million. The result would have been better but for a $16.9 million foreign exchange loss on a now cleared bridging loan.

Mr Burgess said he was now working on a new strategy for OZ that he would take to the board towards the end of October. He said OZ would be in a position to give the market direction on the strategy by the end of the year.

''We need to identify which commodities we are going to be active in and which regional areas in the world we are going to be looking at.''

He said OZ was ''hoping that we will be given the opportunity to develop this project [Prominent Hill] and and grow the business in the coming months'' before any possible takeover approaches were made.

OZ plans to spend about $25 million on exploration work for the rest of this year.


----------



## mlross75

What i cant understand is if this Prominent Hill mine is so profitable, Why werent they mining it before.

I think the only thing this company knows how to do is loose money.


----------



## oldblue

mlross75 said:


> What i cant understand is if this Prominent Hill mine is so profitable, Why werent they mining it before.
> 
> I think the only thing this company knows how to do is loose money.




I think it's fair to say that the Prominent Hill mine has been under development for several years and in the planning stages for some time before that. It's a big opencast mine in anyone's language and these things don't happen overnight. 
I don't think that OZL's prospects should be assessed too closely on past events - the assets are completely different in that PH is now producing whereas it wasn't previously and all the other mines have been sold. Management, of course, is also changed!
Investing in OZL becomes a pretty straight bet on the price of copper and, to a lesser extent, the price of gold with the added chance of a bid being made for the company at some stage.

Disc: Holding a few.


----------



## oldblue

For a much better take on OZL and its prospects than anything I could construct, take a look at this recent article by Stephen Bartholomeusz.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-for-Oz-pd20090827-VBACF?OpenDocument&src=kgb


----------



## stl_08

im starting to see many good reasons to buy heavily into this company, any ideas about when they will start paying dividends?


----------



## noco

stl_08 said:


> im starting to see many good reasons to buy heavily into this company, any ideas about when they will start paying dividends?



Ozl generally pay dividends in September and early April, so IMHO I should imagine we may see a dividend in April 2010. None this year because of the bad result they have  had during the past 12 months, however, since unloading several mines to Minsmetal, they should start tp pick up their profitability in this next six montths with Prominent Hill now in production with copper and some 60,000 ozs of gold in the next 12 months.


----------



## oldblue

Personally, I don't expect to see much in the way of dividends from OZL for a while, perhaps a nominal few cents to keep shareholders interested.

"The result did reveal a previously over-looked asset within the group, another consolation prize created by the crisis. Oz Minerals has $771 million of tax losses that will shelter future earnings. While it will continue to book an accounting charge for tax, it won’t actually pay any for some time to come, boosting its free cash flows. 

That also means it probably isn’t going to be economically sensible to pay dividends, which would be unfranked. That may explain why the group’s shares fell sharply on the result. There had been some expectation, given the amount of cash Oz Minerals is holding, that it might pay a small dividend. It doesn’t however, have any retained earnings. "
- from Stephen Bartholomeusz' recent article.


----------



## Gekko

noco said:


> Ozl generally pay dividends in September and early April, so IMHO I should imagine we may see a dividend in April 2010. None this year because of the bad result they have  had during the past 12 months, however, since unloading several mines to Minsmetal, they should start tp pick up their profitability in this next six montths with Prominent Hill now in production with copper and some 60,000 ozs of gold in the next 12 months.






Thanks to the rapid rise in the Copper price this year, Prominent Hill is now worth a lot more then what is was 3, 6 and 12 months ago. Oz's results last week were moderate, but at these elevated Copper and Gold prices, Prominent Hill offers vast upside. All we need is the AUD to ease back below 0.80.


----------



## Gekko

Trading at $1.05. Looks likely to test $1. $1 should hold, especially given copper hit an 11 month high on friday night despite Asian equity weakness.


----------



## 4fundamentals

I honestly don't value this company very much.  

I think there are better plays on the market right now, particularly within the copper realm (Aditya Birla Minerals-ABY) which I currently don't hold.

I think, although this company is cashed up, there will still be quite a bit of "transitioning" to occur, and ramping up of Prominent Hill.

Morgan Stanley Smith Barney currenlty has a Sell Speculative Risk with a 12 month target of $0.83. 

Don't hate me.  This is just me opinion, and being a beginner I could very well be wrong.


----------



## oldblue

No problem, 4f.

You could very well be right. OZL is still a high risk play - one mine, admittedly a very big opencast one; one metal, admittedly an important one and ok, a bit of gold on the side; new management, untried in this particular role, admittedly the old one wasn't perfect!
I retain a small interest but I'm not adding to it at this point.


----------



## Gekko

Concur with comments above. Can retrace to $1, but with the current copper and gold prices, Prominent Hill offers vast upside. What they do with all the cash will be interesting. But gold up $17 overnight provides another leg up.


----------



## bigdog

ASX ANN
04/09/2009    *OZ Minerals to offer shareholder sale facilities *
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00985218

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ntary-s-pd20090904-VJVZW?opendocument&src=rss

*Oz Minerals launches voluntary share sale facilities to reduce admin costs *10:22 AM 
By a staff reporter 

Oz Minerals Ltd has established two share sales facilities designed to allow shareholders with less than 5,000 shares to sell their shares more cost effectively, and reduce costs associated with servicing smaller holdings. 

The new facilities will allow previously unmarketable parcels of shares to be sold on the market, with all proceeds returned to investors for no service cost. 

The company said in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) that shareholders who wished to retain their unmarketable share parcels would need to notify the company to prevent their stake from being sold. 

Oz Minerals managing director and chief executive Terry Burgess, said the voluntary share sale facility was necessary to reduce the company's administrative costs.

"We are pleased to offer this opportunity to allow those with smaller shareholdings to sell their shares on market, at no cost to them,” Mr Burgess said.

Oz Minerals shares firmed 0.95 per cent to $1.06 at 1020 AEST, against a 0.85 per cent climb in the benchmark index.


----------



## oldblue

OK, we know why they're doing this. But it's not a great vote of confidence in the company's future and the future shareprice, is it?
The sort of thing you'd expect from a penny dreadful, down on its luck!


----------



## bluecheese101

I don't really understand the benifit of the offer: I could sell my holding now and pay brokerage - or i could wait a few weeks and have the stock sold for me, saving a whole $19.95?  I would rather sell now, then risk even the slightest movement in the coming weeks that would result in me loosing more then $20.


----------



## Prospector

Companies regularly try to minimise their bookkeeping by removing small parcels of shares.  Dont read anything sinister into it.  If people dont use online brokerage, then they could pay around $70 through a broker just to sell the shares, so they might say they dont think it is worth it.  But a free sale for them might be!


----------



## roland

... also you may find Terry Burgess (as new captain of the helm) wanting to quickly show some financial control


----------



## oldblue

Prospector said:


> Companies regularly try to minimise their bookkeeping by removing small parcels of shares.  Dont read anything sinister into it.  If people dont use online brokerage, then they could pay around $70 through a broker just to sell the shares, so they might say they dont think it is worth it.  But a free sale for them might be!




It's the bit about extending the offer to 5,000 shares - on a voluntary basis certainly - that's a bit different. Gives the strong message that OZL isn't interested in small shareholders. Good thing or bad thing or doesn't it really matter?


----------



## Prospector

oldblue said:


> It's the bit about extending the offer to 5,000 shares - on a voluntary basis certainly - that's a bit different. Gives the strong message that OZL isn't interested in small shareholders. Good thing or bad thing or doesn't it really matter?




Well, lets put it this way.  If you had two investors, one who owned $500,000 of your widget company, and a customer who owned $5 worth of your widget company, but you have to provide BOTH of them with an annual report (think printing and postage); any other customer notices (think printing and postage); make a direct deposit of any dividends (think admin) or had to send a cheque (think admin printing and postage); notification of AGM's (think printing, postage, admin and then venue hire and associated costs) what do you think your business advisors would be telling you.  Jettison the $5 customer who is sucking up a lot of your admin time which equals reduction of PROFIT!

Do you really think that any company is the least bit interested in the costs of having small holdings - all companies would love to get rid of all of them - there is nothing in it for the company to have 'unmarketable' parcels of shareholders; in fact, they COST them money!


----------



## Gekko

Oz only care about Minmetals and Institutional Shareholders. Retail shareholders are a waste of time keeping, computing, legal, reporting and compliance. Tighten registry equals cost minimisation.


----------



## oldblue

No argument with any of that, but 5,000 OZL shares is hardly $5 ( not yet, anyway!) 
As for admin costs, it's possible for companies to avoid the expense of sending out annual and other reports to most shareholders although notices etc normally have to be mailed and yes, there is a cost in that. As for dividends, well it's not an issue for OZL at the moment, more's the pity.

I'm sure that OZL ended up with a lot of small shareholders, particularly after the ZFX/OXR merger and I have no problem about cleaning up the unmarketable parcels. In my forty-odd years of investing its happened to me quite a few times and generally its been a good thing, often presaging the end of a struggling company.
Hope that's not the case here

Disc: Holding more than 5,000 OZL.


----------



## Gillie

Have just been looking into the offloading a bit and just spoke with Market Services - they have stated that if you wish to retain your holding (if it is less than $500) you must fill out a retention form and return it to them no later than the 19th October 2009, otherwise the holding will be sold.


----------



## rustyheela

*ozl*

ready to break $ 1.20 resistance. another or a few more days of higher copper prices, a no raise of interest rates or a sniff of "positive spin by US fed could be goin for a run, only wish the AUD wasnt so strong and strenghtining. sorry bout lack of pic, 2 many reds but chart checkers, check it out, opinions welcome!!


----------



## jbocker

Announced yesterday...
_IMF Ltd announces the issue of class action litigation against Oz Minerals Limited in relation to it's continuous disclosure obligations during the period 21August 2008 through to the end of November 2008.

..have been issued on behalf of IMF clients who purchased OZ shares during that period._

OK *I dont get it*, action against the company so the shares go up 6.5%  and is going up again today?

Can anyone please explain!

Also why is it only on behalf of those purchased during that period, Why not those who held before? 

Appreciate any ideas on this, I really dont get it.


----------



## milothedog

Class action will take a long time to play out (only making lawyers rich).  Main driver of price, in my opinion, is BHP's trouble at Olympic Dam (haulage system breakdown), this will decrease production of Cu and U in short term, putting pressure on spot prices.


----------



## oldblue

jbocker, it's apparently alleged that the company misled investors during this period.

Seems ludicrous to me that one group of shareholders can effectively sue the rest of the shareholders. If there's a valid claim, it should be against the individuals concerned, IMO, not the company. Would probably end up being an insurance claim anyway but then the company has to wear the cost of higher premiums.


----------



## jbocker

oldblue said:


> jbocker, it's apparently alleged that the company misled investors during this period.
> 
> Seems ludicrous to me that one group of shareholders can effectively sue the rest of the shareholders. If there's a valid claim, it should be against the individuals concerned, IMO, not the company. Would probably end up being an insurance claim anyway but then the company has to wear the cost of higher premiums.




Cheers Oldblue. Looks like the only winner will be IMF. 
Still dont understand why existing shareholders during that period dont appear to have a claim.
Thanks Milothedog, you suggest that the price increase is independent of the announcement on the day, seems logical, why didnt I think of it!


----------



## Semillon

From a purely technical standpoint I am very bullish on OZL, it has broken resistance on high volume and is into clear blue skies, see my post here in the breakouts thread if you want to view the chart.


----------



## clampett

How many debt free midtier miners have got $1bill. in the kitty, a brand new copper/gold mine with low operating costs and 49% of one of the best blue sky uranium miners- Toro Energy, on the books.The OZL share price has risen 16% in recent weeks, with further upside if CU prices stay high. When the market wakes up to the fact that OZL will have to start doing something with the quid in the bank- read acquisition or share buy back or both the run will have passed. Before the old OZL was forced into the clutches of state owned Chinese company Minmetals, exploration around Prominent Hill all but came to a stand still. Now that drilling has started again it won't be long before more reserves are found within their huge tenements surrounding the Prominent Hill mine. Analysts will need to rerate this stock or end up with egg on their faces. One Citi number cruncher had a sell recommendation on OZL recently- the stock rose from $1.08 to $1.275 within days.


----------



## Prospector

clampett said:


> How many debt free midtier miners have got $1bill. in the kitty, a brand new copper/gold mine with low operating costs and 49% of one of the best blue sky uranium miners- Toro Energy, on the books.The OZL share price has risen 16% in recent weeks




It's got a hell of a long way to go before former ZFX holders are even slightly mollified.   It has been my worst performer in the last 12 months, but thank god I didnt sell in disgust when it was 63 cents .


----------



## jancha

Prospector said:


> It's got a hell of a long way to go before former ZFX holders are even slightly mollified.   It has been my worst performer in the last 12 months, but thank god I didnt sell in disgust when it was 63 cents .




Lost a lot of money on this company due to bad management & placement of funds. Wouldn't put my faith back in them. Good luck to holders.


----------



## oldblue

jancha said:


> Lost a lot of money on this company due to bad management & placement of funds. Wouldn't put my faith back in them. Good luck to holders.




It's a different proposition now; under new management; slimmed down to one class asset in Prominent Hill and with a bucketload of cash. A lot of promise but a lot depends on what that cash gets spent on, how the price of copper behaves and how said new management perform. And of course, there's still that big capital to service with a lot less assets to do the job.

I'm holding a few but wouldn't bet the house on them.


----------



## clampett

whats the old saying- "don't fall in love with a stock" also holds true with- "don't fall out of love with a stock", and miss opportunities to get some of your OX/Zin losses back.Too many shareholders panicked and sold out when the Chinese were making overtures towards the assets of OZL. The offer price was 0.825 and look what it is today and rising, even without Century, Golden Grove, Seppon , Averbury and the highly prospective Matarbe. Remember Andrew Michlemore has gone to run Minmetals and chairman  Barry Cussack will be gone before the next AGM.


----------



## roland

Did anyone notice the transaction list from Black Rock for OZL in the 5.21PM news release?

Black Rock now up to 12.61% of OZL.

Is it normal for an Investment company to perform so many transactions, looks a little "Gung Ho" to me.

Not sure of Black Rock's credentials, but if they are well regarded then maybe a good sign for OZL


----------



## oldblue

Yes, a huge number of transactions but then the disclosure covers almost twelve months trading and about 15-16 entities across the world. No doubt they all operate independently (competitively?) so it's not surprising that there are sales there as well as purchases.

What is surprising is that Black Rock havn't been required to disclose a change ( from 7% odd to around 12% ) before now. I'm not sure of the rules but would have thought that an annual up-date was hardly keeping the market informed.

Seems that their interest in OZL has been a major factor in the strong SP performance recently. Long may it continue!


----------



## GumbyLearner

roland said:


> Did anyone notice the transaction list from Black Rock for OZL in the 5.21PM news release?
> 
> Black Rock now up to 12.61% of OZL.
> 
> Is it normal for an Investment company to perform so many transactions, looks a little "Gung Ho" to me.
> 
> Not sure of Black Rock's credentials, but if they are well regarded then maybe a good sign for OZL




Black Rock have also been quietly buying up a lot of NCM lately too. 

Does anyone know how much they are planning on spending going further underground at PH?


----------



## oldblue

GumbyLearner said:


> Black Rock have also been quietly buying up a lot of NCM lately too.
> 
> Does anyone know how much they are planning on spending going further underground at PH?




That hasn't been announced. They are still working on the Feasibility Study which I think, from memory, is due to go to the Board in the first quarter of 2010.


----------



## ectoplasm

Hi oldblue,

OZL gapped up on good volume today, I wonder if it has the energy to break through resistance @ $1.28?

Daily chart looks nice IMO:


----------



## roland

Having an absolute ball with OZL, follow it down in small lots and follow it up selling small lots - a little mechanical, but works for me


----------



## oldblue

Hi, ectoplasm.

Yes, OZL continues to benefit from the rising PoC.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...tory-data-strike/story-e6frg92f-1225816129780


----------



## ectoplasm

oldblue said:


> Hi, ectoplasm.
> 
> Yes, OZL continues to benefit from the rising PoC.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...tory-data-strike/story-e6frg92f-1225816129780




Hi oldblue,

That may be true but if gap support doesn't hold (& I'll be surprised if it don't) then look out below IMO ...


----------



## roland

The anticipated rise in copper due to the expected disruption in Chile gave us a little blip above $1.10. At least gave me a chance to offload a few at $1.11.

Seems the $1.10 resistance point is proving hard to overcome. Quite a weak close today right on $1.10 - sort of have a feeling we are going to see a retracement back to near the $1.00 mark, if there is enough selling pressure it may even fall a little lower....

On the other hand, if we can get another peek over the $1.10, we may see $1.20 in the not-too-near-distant-future.

In either case, I am happy - I am quite enjoying the oscillations


----------



## roland

OZL up an encouraging 6.36% today on good, and steady volume. I do notice though that the volume is on a slight decline - does this mean that the sellers are drying up, or the buyers are waning?

Correct me if I am wrong, increasing volume provides support for the direction of the SP, conversely as OZL's SP approaches the $1.20 - $1.30 resistance channel and the volume starts dropping off - can we assume that we may have trouble getting through this resitance level again?

I suppose that's what makes breakouts so exciting, OZL is likely to get to the resistance channel and the buyers will start to dry up - albeit with fingers on triggers if the SP breaches $1.30


----------



## kash

OZL looks still caught at the resistance point of 1.20-1.30. Sounds like a good result for the half year.
But my thoughts are draw to their acquistion stategy.

"OZ Minerals indicated in its strategy announced last November that it wishes to grow its business through  
the acquisition of mining projects, at either the exploration phase, development stage or in production, in  
line with its preference in copper.  Sources of available funds include the $1.43 billion in cash reserves and  
continuing net cash flows generated from Prominent Hill. " 

Does anyone have any ideas on possible companies that fit this profile?
Would love to hold before a offer/takeover deal occurs.


----------



## Sean K

kash said:


> Does anyone have any ideas on possible companies that fit this profile?
> 
> Would love to hold before a offer/takeover deal occurs.



Maybe an EQN or CDU perhaps. Not sure of their real value  apart from having a bunch of copper in the dirt.

Oz looks really looks good now with so much cash floating about and lessons hopefully learnt. 

They could go for a gold company as well with PRU the pick for mine, although getting more and more expensive by the day. Should have taken them out 6 months ago.


----------



## kash

they are the two i thought of that have the most advanced copper mines or potential mines. HAV have some copper. But best would be the rest of SFR. Why would they want to be a shareholder when they have the ability to own and run it??


----------



## noco

kash said:


> OZL looks still caught at the resistance point of 1.20-1.30. Sounds like a good result for the half year.
> But my thoughts are draw to their acquistion stategy.
> 
> "OZ Minerals indicated in its strategy announced last November that it wishes to grow its business through
> the acquisition of mining projects, at either the exploration phase, development stage or in production, in
> line with its preference in copper.  Sources of available funds include the $1.43 billion in cash reserves and
> continuing net cash flows generated from Prominent Hill. "
> 
> Does anyone have any ideas on possible companies that fit this profile?
> Would love to hold before a offer/takeover deal occurs.




OZ have paid a 3 cent dividend this year.

Kargara Zinc (KZL) have turned a $200 million plus loss last year into a $3 million something this year They were paying a dividend three years ago.


----------



## Sean K

noco said:


> OZ have paid a 3 cent dividend this year.
> 
> Kargara Zinc (KZL) have turned a $200 million plus loss last year into a $3 million something this year They were paying a dividend three years ago.



Isn't Kargara a Zinc company?

Hmmm,

Maybe they are Kargara Copper.



Not having checked on their operations I'll accept this as a slight oversight.


----------



## kash

They are mainly known as a zinc company but also has copper. Thalanga, a Copper Mine owned by Kagara Limited.
PAN is another possibility. Straits Resources Limited ?
Question really is mine in australia or overseas? Do they have a preference?


----------



## McCoy Pauley

kash said:


> OZL looks still caught at the resistance point of 1.20-1.30. Sounds like a good result for the half year.
> But my thoughts are draw to their acquistion stategy.
> 
> "OZ Minerals indicated in its strategy announced last November that it wishes to grow its business through
> the acquisition of mining projects, at either the exploration phase, development stage or in production, in
> line with its preference in copper.  Sources of available funds include the $1.43 billion in cash reserves and
> continuing net cash flows generated from Prominent Hill. "
> 
> Does anyone have any ideas on possible companies that fit this profile?
> Would love to hold before a offer/takeover deal occurs.




Rex Minerals (RXM) has tenements with copper apparently right next door to Prominent Hill.  Allegedly, Oz Minerals executes look out over the RXM mines when they fly from Adelaide to Prominent Hill.

RXM's share price rocketed last month when they announced the extent of the copper in their project partly on speculation that RXM was a sitting duck for a takeover from Oz Minerals.  More than doubled in the space of a few weeks, but has retraced a fair amount in the last week or so.

I do not hold RXM nor Oz Minerals.  As always, DYOR.


----------



## kash

thanks for that. it would save some money if they can use same infrastructure.


----------



## oldblue

kash said:


> They are mainly known as a zinc company but also has copper. Thalanga, a Copper Mine owned by Kagara Limited.
> PAN is another possibility. Straits Resources Limited ?
> Question really is mine in australia or overseas? Do they have a preference?




I wouldn't have thought that PAN was on their list, being a predominantly nickel miner with only minor amounts of Cu and Co from their Ni mines in the Kimberley and Kambalda regions. Neither does copper seem to figure very high in their exploration/drilling activities at present.

I still reckon that SFR is their best bet and highest priority although it now looks as if it would have to be a hostile takeover with the board of SFR refusing OZL a seat at their table.


----------



## noco

kennas said:


> Isn't Kargara a Zinc company?
> 
> Hmmm,
> 
> Maybe they are Kargara Copper.
> 
> 
> 
> Not having checked on their operations I'll accept this as a slight oversight.




Kargara (KZL) are a very diversified company. I have had an interest in KZL for 4-5 years having bought and sold between $4 and $7 before the GFC. Bought back in at 38 cents. They are now hovering around 60 cents ATM. They have had a remarkable turn around to come back into the black. KZL were paying a dividend prior to the GFC. I believe their nickel deposits are high grade. Much higher than Posiden.

Business Description 
Kagara Limited (KZL) is a metals exploration, development and mining company. KZL is primarily focused on zinc and copper production in North Queensland and Western Australia. KZL also holds 18.2% interest in Metallica Minerals Ltd and a 19.8% interest in Glengarry Resources NL. KZL is planning to separately list the Mungana and Red Dome projects in a new company, Mungana Goldmines. 

Company Strategy 
KZL?s vision is to build a diversified Australian resources group which is a world leader in the low-cost production of zinc, copper, nickel and gold, delivering superior returns to its shareholders. The medium term goal is to increase production to 70,000t of zinc, 23,000t of copper and 2,500t of nickel annually by FY12. KZL is focused on developing a new nickel mine at Lounge Lizard in Western Australia and progressing development options for the zinc resource at Admiral Bay. Kagara reported net loss of $34.49m for the half-year ended 31 December 2008. Revenue from ordinary activities were $76.91m, down 50% from the same period last year. Diluted EPS was (15.98) cents compared to 16.18 cents last year. Net operating cash flow was $39.36m compared to $61.14m last year. No dividend was declared. 

DYOR.


----------



## Horsetrader1

If you look at OZL strategy then KZL does not fit the bill. copper production is less than 50,000tpa and they have a really high C1 cash cost.

PNA fit's the strategy, but too expensive. (they would need to borrow and OZL does not have a good history there)

CDU is, IMO, not worth a look at.

SFR stake was a superb corporate move, but now SFR is too expensive. IMO, SFR is a risk management move. (explain later)

OZL is on the short list for Carrapateena. This is a > 4mt copper resource as well as Gold and U308. It will cost approx $2.3B to develop as well as buying the rights. If they do not get C, then OZL could fall back onto their SFR stake. (this is what I mean by risk management)

Hope this helps. (This is the first time I have posted here -If I need to do something different pls let me know)

HT1


----------



## oldblue

Makes a lot of sense to me, Horsetrader1!

OZL are apparently not in any hurry to spend their cash but the market seems to think that something is going to happen soon. I don't believe that the recent SP strength results from some spontaneous conclusion that OZL has previously been seriously underpriced!

Let's hope that it's a hint of good news re Carrapateena.


----------



## nulla nulla

This article may give some understanding to why OZL is going up.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- For investors still looking for clues about where the market and economy is heading, I suggest it's time to start singing Waltzing Matilda.

Aussie Aussie Aussie! Oi Oi Oi! Yes, I speak of the land down under. (Great. Now I have the Men at Work song in my head and a bizarre craving for a vegemite sandwich.) Anyway, the Australian dollar has been on fire lately and some strategists think that's a good sign for the global economy. Here's why.

Australia is a commodity-rich nation. So the surge in its currency is a reflection of the recent spike in commodity prices. But one commodity in particular is helping to boost the fortunes of Australia: copper.

Copper has many industrial uses. So copper prices, more so than the prices of more speculative commodities like gold and even oil, tend to rise and fall based on the tried-and-true economic laws of supply and demand. 

Because of the metal's solid track record as a true barometer of fundamental trends, some market strategists refer to it as Dr. Copper. The joke, if you will, is that copper has a PhD in economics. (Does that mean gold just has a Bachelor's degree? I digress.) 

So the increase in the Australian dollar could be a bullish sign. Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at GFT Forex in New York, noted that the Aussie has been benefiting from more favorable news about China's economy.

"The move in the Australian dollar is a play on the global recovery, especially Chinese demand, picking up pace," Schlossberg said. "If you are a bull on the stock markets worldwide, the Aussie is your bet."

John Kosar, director of research with Asbury Research in Chicago, takes it a step further. He said the rally in the Australian dollar could be evidence that the U.S. economy may actually be picking up a bit of steam.

Kosar explained that there tends to be a strong correlation between the price of copper and transportation stocks in the United States. That's important since the performance of railroads, truckers and shippers, are often a good leading indicator for the markets and economy. 

Many market observers think it's an encouraging sign when the Dow Jones Transportation Average is moving in tandem with the broader market. And lately, that has been the case.

"Everybody is stroking their chin and wondering where the U.S. stock market is headed," Kosar said. "That's why the Aussie surge is interesting. The Aussie is up because copper is up. And copper prices typically lead to a rise in transportation stocks. Connect the dots." 

Still, Schlossberg said the strength in Australia has more to do with China. And that's not a bad thing. He said that right now, it seems more important to global investors for China to show continued signs of strength. If that happens, then there's a better chance that the U.S. may also stabilize.

"The U.S. is still a linchpin of the global economy but it's not the leader. It's more of a supporting actor," Schlossberg said.

Investors also can't forget Europe either. The fears about the sovereign debt crisis there are dissipating a bit. 

But Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist with Bank of New York Mellon, said any renewed fears about the so-called PIIGS nations could lead to more concerns about how fragile the global economy is. 

In other words, Woolfolk thinks the Aussie rally is just another reflection of investors once again embracing riskier assets. That may not last for much longer.

"The curious thing about the Aussie strength is that it has been more predicated on factors outside of the country than domestic factors -- which is never healthy for the long term," he said. "It's possible the Aussie could go even higher but I'm not very confident it will."


----------



## mr. jeff

Article in the fin review today discussing OZL's hoarding of cash, and what they may do with it. Normal discussion of SFR, the citadel resource etc. and they mention the commitment that OZL management have made to either using the money or returning some by the end of this year. I know this is constantly the topic of discussion here for this stock, and just wonder on thoughts now after the price rise and the potential for action. 

It is interesting that no moves are made on SFR (with a massive SP now) and we are nearing the end of the year. Could they mount a share buyback or would it be special dividends, or will they just overpay for SFR and then go mad drilling ? 

I note that in the 2009 annual report there were 3.1 B shares on issue. OZL has been generating good cash, pays little dividend and is exploring fairly solidly ( spend about 60M/ annum)  so where does this leave us with a capital return; they would want to hold on to ~ $ 250M ? (4 years of looking)

I held OXR, then watched them fall into a hole, then bought a whole heap during 08/09 from 55c all they way up through 90c, then again at 98c not so long ago, so I have recovered my losses, but where is the loyalty to shareholders with this company? 
We've supported them through their time, what about some payback!!! that billion dollars is not managements money, its ours !
Basically my rant is aimed at this:
IS there any merit in buying more shares in anticipation of a capital return on this stock ? I know the current run up is due to copper bulls and the world undersupply and the lack of copper and how we are all going to replace gold with copper etc. but is there any worth in buying OZL now !!!?


----------



## quinny

What do you think of the class action?

You can read more about it here:
http://www.fedcourt.gov.au/litigants/class_actions/NSD1443_2010.pdf
or
http://www.slatergordon.com.au/areas-of-practice/victoria/general-legal-services/class-actions/oz

At this point I am unsure if I should join this class action or not.


----------



## mr. jeff

quinny said:


> What do you think of the class action?
> 
> You can read more about it here:
> http://www.fedcourt.gov.au/litigants/class_actions/NSD1443_2010.pdf
> or
> http://www.slatergordon.com.au/areas-of-practice/victoria/general-legal-services/class-actions/oz
> 
> At this point I am unsure if I should join this class action or not.




Call me a lazy but getting involved in legal wrangles sounds prickly to me; there is already too much to do in every day! I guess the class action may have a point, but then if you join it you basically should sell your shares in OZL otherwise you are trying to cost yourself money!

Nevertheless, if anyone gets near to OZL management in couirt, tell them to go and buy RXM or give me my money back! 
As an aside, I wonder how the production figures are stacking up this quarter, OZL really has known no better conditions, (remember they had reduced Cu production prev. quarters) with production going ahead and record breaking prices for Cu and Au. Makes their run understandable with the added bonus of a capital return at the end of the year. Ha. (wishful thinking)


----------



## quinny

mr. jeff said:


> Call me a lazy but getting involved in legal wrangles sounds prickly to me; there is already too much to do in every day! I guess the class action may have a point, but then if you join it you basically should sell your shares in OZL otherwise you are trying to cost yourself money!




I don't own any OZL shares at the moment. This class action is from OXR/OZL allegedly not mentioning the real company position to the market to keep the price high back in 2008. At least, that's what I can make of it.

I am going to join it and see how it goes.


----------



## jancha

quinny said:


> I don't own any OZL shares at the moment. This class action is from OXR/OZL allegedly not mentioning the real company position to the market to keep the price high back in 2008. At least, that's what I can make of it.
> 
> I am going to join it and see how it goes.




I'm also joining this class action. 
I don't hold any shares in OZL now nor will I in the future.
Had I stuck by them & bought more at 55c?  
Easy in hindsight but i vowed never to trust in their management after being burnt by them in the past.


----------



## YELNATS

jancha said:


> I'm also joining this class action.
> I don't hold any shares in OZL now nor will I in the future.
> Had I stuck by them & bought more at 55c?
> Easy in hindsight but i vowed never to trust in their management after being burnt by them in the past.




The old management of 2008 and before (Messrs Cusack, Michelmore et al) has been banished and replaced with new management under Neil Hamilton Chairman, and Terry Burgess Managing Director/CEO who are quietly going about rebuilding the company.

I still hold the same amount of shares I did before the demise in 2008 and though they have recovered quite well, they still owe me plenty. But I'd be shooting myself in the foot if I joined this class action.


----------



## adobee

are zfx holders in on this class action also ??
I still cant believe a company that looked so strong and was pumping out such big dividends got pumped so hard..


----------



## jancha

adobee said:


> are zfx holders in on this class action also ??
> I still cant believe a company that looked so strong and was pumping out such big dividends got pumped so hard..




Adobee In answer to your question.
Only holders of OZL between & including 23rd of July 08 - 1st of December 08 & when it was OXR between 29th of Feb 08-22nd of July 08.
Exceptions are of security holders of ZFX who became sercurity holders of OXR on the 1st of July 08 by reason of the merger between ZFX & OXR.


----------



## mr. jeff

What comes from class actions, is there some sort of financial reparation or is it just a rap on the knuckles for OZL ?  I assume that there is a dollar amount awarded if the action is successful which gets split between the participants ?


----------



## badger41

Having just read through the documents emailed to me(I have "joined" the class action), yes, it seems that if the action is successful, quite a bit (quarter to half) the settlement amount will go to the funders of the litigation. If I understand it, the funders are paying all Slater and Gordon's bills on a no-win no-fee basis, so they (the funders) must be pretty confident of winning a few $mill. The funders then get to keep 20-40% (or more) of the settlement amount, the rest being distributed pro-rata to eligible shareholders.

You can, it seems, choose to be represented by S&G - they'd like that as they get paid. Alternatively you can go along as a "free rider" - S&G state that in that case your settlement amount will reflect the fact you are "unfunded".

They do stress that you will "never be out of pocket", that the action is likely to take 12 months - 4 years, but the 25 or so pages of supporting documents are a bit daunting. Does anyone here with a legal background recommend signing off as a S&G client, or "opting out" or going as a "class action" member with no legal representation (ie no further S&G involvement)?


----------



## jbocker

So we get a 4c dividend and a 12c per share capital return (subject to approval). Why dont they just give a larger dividend? Is it not to raise an ongoing expectation of the dividend amount?

Share buy backs - what is the real purpose of this, is it to rid the listings of small holders?


----------



## oldblue

jbocker said:


> So we get a 4c dividend and a 12c per share capital return (subject to approval). Why dont they just give a larger dividend? Is it not to raise an ongoing expectation of the dividend amount?
> 
> Share buy backs - what is the real purpose of this, is it to rid the listings of small holders?




I would think that OZL wouldn't have the franking credits to pay a bigger divvy without shareholders paying tax. 

As for the buy back and share consolidation, IMO it's a way to position the OZL stock - and shareprice - at the bigger, more "desirable" end of town nearer to the likes of BHP, RIO, Newcrest, etc. Plus it's telling the market that OZL isn't going to waste its cash on overpriced acquisitions.


----------



## alexc2005

Seems this thread hasn't been getting much love.

Can anyone explain what the buyback actually means?

Is that whats affecting the price so much? Or are people just bailing on a sinking ship?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

alexc2005 said:


> Seems this thread hasn't been getting much love.
> 
> Can anyone explain what the buyback actually means?
> 
> Is that whats affecting the price so much? Or are people just bailing on a sinking ship?




I'm holding OZL myself. The buyback should increase share value as far as I understand.

I have been observing the drops over the last month or so, and I think they are a result of decreasing copper prices and futures and a buildup of copper stockpiles. The value of miners reflects to a significant extent the price of the underlying commodity which they mine.

Once futures begin indicating rising prices and inventories empty out, we should see OZL climb back up.

Not 100% sure though.

Edit: Have a read of this, just found them
http://business.financialpost.com/2...vers-but-prices-still-down-10-since-february/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print...-47-to-149-235-tons-in-may-from-year-ago.html


----------



## Mr Z

Anyone know the story behind that phat phinger trade? 

OZL course of sales -->

10:24:57 AM	11.000	1,859	20,449.00	 
10:24:50 AM	10.000	600	6,000.00	 
10:24:48 AM	1.700	1	1.70	 
10:24:48 AM	1.700	951	1,616.70	 
10:24:48 AM	1.700	262	445.40	 
10:24:47 AM	1.700	3	5.10	 
10:24:47 AM	1.700	147	249.90	 
10:24:47 AM	1.700	41	69.70	 
10:24:47 AM	1.700	16	27.20	 
10:24:47 AM	1.700	1,006	1,710.20	 
10:24:38 AM	1.700	1,678	2,852.60	 
10:24:37 AM	1.700	1,255	2,133.50	 
10:24:28 AM	1.585	517	819.45	 
10:24:28 AM	1.590	96	152.64	 
10:24:28 AM	1.590	489	777.51	 
10:24:27 AM	1.590	517	822.03	 
10:24:27 AM	1.590	65	103.35	 
10:24:18 AM	1.560	1,121	1,748.76	 
10:24:18 AM	1.560	970	1,513.20	 
10:24:17 AM	1.560	1,599	2,494.44	 
10:24:02 AM	1.545	183,478	283,473.51	XT
10:24:02 AM	11.630	308	3,582.04

Someone just toasted a lot of notes!

Ya think he/she just lost a job?

Talk about a bad hair day!!!


----------



## alexc2005

Mr Z said:


> Anyone know the story behind that phat phinger trade?
> 
> OZL course of sales -->
> 
> 10:24:57 AM	11.000	1,859	20,449.00
> 10:24:50 AM	10.000	600	6,000.00
> 10:24:48 AM	1.700	1	1.70
> 10:24:48 AM	1.700	951	1,616.70
> 10:24:48 AM	1.700	262	445.40
> 10:24:47 AM	1.700	3	5.10
> 10:24:47 AM	1.700	147	249.90
> 10:24:47 AM	1.700	41	69.70
> 10:24:47 AM	1.700	16	27.20
> 10:24:47 AM	1.700	1,006	1,710.20
> 10:24:38 AM	1.700	1,678	2,852.60
> 10:24:37 AM	1.700	1,255	2,133.50
> 10:24:28 AM	1.585	517	819.45
> 10:24:28 AM	1.590	96	152.64
> 10:24:28 AM	1.590	489	777.51
> 10:24:27 AM	1.590	517	822.03
> 10:24:27 AM	1.590	65	103.35
> 10:24:18 AM	1.560	1,121	1,748.76
> 10:24:18 AM	1.560	970	1,513.20
> 10:24:17 AM	1.560	1,599	2,494.44
> 10:24:02 AM	1.545	183,478	283,473.51	XT
> 10:24:02 AM	11.630	308	3,582.04
> 
> Someone just toasted a lot of notes!
> 
> Ya think he/she just lost a job?
> 
> Talk about a bad hair day!!!




Wow, i saw that happen and **** my pants.

Suddenly it dropped 90%!! haha

So was that a sell off where he has put the decimal place in the wrong place?

Man, imagine if you were quick enough to buy some at those prices!! Instant 500% gain much?

Surely that cant be right?


----------



## Mr Z

alexc2005 said:


> Surely that cant be right?




Yeah I think is was right, it looks like it was a cross trade and I guess someone just lost their job!


----------



## alexc2005

Mr Z said:


> Yeah I think is was right, it looks like it was a cross trade and I guess someone just lost their job!




thats absolutely crazy.

Someone definitely lost their job.

And someone is VERY happy with themselves right now!!


----------



## Mr Z

alexc2005 said:


> Wow, i saw that happen and **** my pants.




What broker where you using?


----------



## alexc2005

Mr Z said:


> What broker where you using?




Just westpac online?


----------



## pixel

Mr Z said:


> Yeah I think is was right, it looks like it was a cross trade and I guess someone just lost their job!



 Wouldn't be the first time that an obvious error was corrected after Market.
The simple explanation would be they mistyped the price, missing a One in front. $11.54 makes much more sense than $1.54.


----------



## alexc2005

pixel said:


> Wouldn't be the first time that an obvious error was corrected after Market.
> The simple explanation would be they mistyped the price, missing a One in front. $11.54 makes much more sense than $1.54.




yep, but does that mean that someone bought them at 1.54?

There was a hell of alot of volume for the price to last 30seconds..


----------



## Mr Z

pixel said:


> Wouldn't be the first time that an obvious error was corrected after Market.
> *The simple explanation would be they mistyped the price, missing a One in front. $11.54 makes much more sense than $1.54.*




Yes that is obvious, hence the term "phat phinger trade" but look at the order flow. It is not simply a matter of correcting one bad trade. People bought at low prices quite legitimately, it will be interesting to see if it is 'fixed'. All I know is that if it where me I'd have to swallow it!


----------



## Mr Z

alexc2005 said:


> Just westpac online?




OK thanks. I checked the ASX they have the same number as well so it is not just my broker with an internal stuff up.


----------



## alexc2005

Mr Z said:


> OK thanks. I checked the ASX they have the same number as well so it is not just my broker with an internal stuff up.




yeah i thought that might be it. A glitch.

If i had clicked buy and put in a buy, would i have had any chance of getting any?

not really sure how it works when something like this happens??


----------



## pixel

alexc2005 said:


> yeah i thought that might be it. A glitch.
> 
> If i had clicked buy and put in a buy, would i have had any chance of getting any?
> 
> not really sure how it works when something like this happens??



 It's already been cancelled and corrections put through.
Anybody that might have panicked and sold - or tried to milk the error and snuck a buy order in - would simply be notified that their order had been reversed.


----------



## Mr Z

alexc2005 said:


> If i had clicked buy and put in a buy, would i have had any chance of getting any?




Yes... someone got filled! Those small orders following the drop where no doubt @ limit $11.xx + the entire bid queue got taken out in one fell swoop! There is a lot too undo there! Lots of stink bids got hit!


----------



## Mr Z

pixel said:


> It's already been cancelled and corrections put through.
> Anybody that might have panicked and sold - or tried to milk the error and snuck a buy order in - would simply be notified that their order had been reversed.




Yeah the 'low' has disappeared!

Wouldn't that bum you out if you thought you had a win


----------



## Mr Z

Wouldn't you think that it warrants a small explanatory announcement to market? After the last week they probably gave a few investors coronaries with that little SNAFU.... it gave me a start 

Just saying, it would be polite 

They could also offer free pants dry cleaning  That would be considerate!


----------



## Mr Z

OZ Minerals trades under review after 87pc crash: ASX


----------



## vkdirector




----------



## Mr Z

Yet not on the ASX site? link... or my broker...  ?!


----------



## Sirloin Steak

Nothing on OZL since August?
Damn,

On the last posts though I remember when a rookie at one of the broking houses (If I remember right it started with a b and rhymed with bell) made a big stuff up on BHP and momentarily dragged the whole index down before it was corrected LMAO.


----------



## pixel

Sirloin Steak said:


> Nothing on OZL since August?
> Damn,
> 
> On the last posts though I remember when a rookie at one of the broking houses (If I remember right it started with a b and rhymed with bell) made a big stuff up on BHP and momentarily dragged the whole index down before it was corrected LMAO.



 That can no longer happen quite so easily; I've been adised that ASIC has banned the use of "At Market" Orders. Only "Limit" Orders will be accepted, and they must be within a narrow margin either side of the last executed trade.
Why couldn't they introduce that rulw after the first major fiasco when AMP floated?


----------



## tinhat

Oz Minerals will be bidding at auction for a Romanian open pit copper mine. The auction is in Bucharest and is scheduled for monday 26 March 2012. Mine producing 11,000 tonnes per year (2008 figure from wikipedia).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roşia_Poieni_copper_mine


----------



## Bibimbap

tinhat said:


> Oz Minerals will be bidding at auction for a Romanian open pit copper mine. The auction is in Bucharest and is scheduled for monday 26 March 2012. Mine producing 11,000 tonnes per year (2008 figure from wikipedia).
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roşia_Poieni_copper_mine




Decided not to bid for this mine, and share price has gone up slightly since.
What do people think of the long term prospects of OZL? It's cashed up, but that Prominent Hill project is their only resource and the Sandfire rumour never seems to eventuate....


----------



## oldblue

HAV is looking to sell its Kalkaroo copper/gold project.

I'd be surprised if OZL isn't interested in having a look, at least.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120330/pdf/425bnjq93bmss5.pdf


----------



## tinhat

There's a bit of a divergence opening up between the OZL share price (falling) and the MACD (rising since late March) and the RSI (also trending up since late March).


----------



## skc

Boy... how long does it take the ASX to issue a speeding ticket these days?

OZL is only down 10% on a green day and it doesn't deserve a please explain?

I can't think of any event that would warrant such a move...  sure gold fell a bit last night but most copper stocks are pretty normal.

May be a class action decision? 

Edit - oops - it's already concluded right?


----------



## notting

Maybe they are going to cave in to the fools telling them to take over SFR.


----------



## notting

What is the problem!?
They should drop SFR and buy NST, SLR or TRY.
OR all of em if they have enough cash.


----------



## oldblue

This is probably part of the problem.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...waits-on-afp-probe-update-20130114-2cpbj.html


----------



## notting

oldblue said:


> This is probably part of the problem.




No.  It's high frequency trading according to the boss!
Nothing to do with lower production and higher costs announced yesterday 
Vision!


----------



## skc

notting said:


> No.  It's high frequency trading according to the boss!
> Nothing to do with lower production and higher costs announced yesterday
> Vision!




I didn't know whether to laugh or cry when I read that...

I mean, he should have just blamed selling in general. If people don't sell, share prices can't fall...

Low freq selling is just as bad.


----------



## notting

skc said:


> Low freq selling is just as bad.




LOL


----------



## Accumulator

What would the likely implications be for OZL's share price if this acquisition went ahead? Thanks for any comments.


OZ Minerals, Carlyle still in Rio’s Northparkes auction 

Rio Tinto’s efforts to sell its interests in NSW-based copper-goldmine Northparkes are nearing the pointy end, with OZ Minerals and private equity firm The Carlyle Group said to be the frontrunners in the process.

MMG and Glencore Xstrata are also in the final furlong of the Macquarie Capital-run auction.

RBC Capital Markets has labelled Northparkes an “ideal purchase at the right price” for OZ Minerals, as it meets the company’s investment criteria.

Northparkes generated a $US144 million profit on $US453 million revenue last year, and is expected to fetch at least $US800 million ($869 million).

Buying the mine would use up JPMorgan-advised OZ Minerals’ $US660 million cash pile and more. One theory is that OZ could sell its 18.9 per cent stake in Sandfire Resources to help fund the transaction.

Private equity firms, such as Carlyle, have been considering whether they want to start playing in the resource sector given the amount of assets for sale and the small number of buyers.


----------



## skc

OZL had a production outlook update this morning.  I read the announcement but didn't have the time to compare with market consensus.

Well the market didn't like it one bit and sold this down over 30% at one stage, printing a low of $2.08 from a close of $3.09 yesterday. Then it climbed all the way back up to $2.80 (which is 35% higher than the low).

We all know OZL is a dog but this price action was pure madness.


----------



## skyQuake

Couldn't quite get to a gap fill but it was mighty close after all those broker upgrades.

I love Decembers


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> Couldn't quite get to a gap fill but it was mighty close after all those broker upgrades.
> 
> I love Decembers




Crazy isn't it...

Shorting this at 296. Wouldn't surprise me if it closes in the red.

Nothing surprise me anymore...


----------



## VSntchr

skc said:


> OZL had a production outlook update this morning.  I read the announcement but didn't have the time to compare with market consensus.




Just had a look out of interest. 
Don't know if its just me being overwhelmed, but it feels like you need to just about be an expert to get through those 60-odd pages 

Looks like they are confirming hitting guidance production?


----------



## VSntchr

skc said:


> Crazy isn't it...
> 
> Shorting this at 296. Wouldn't surprise me if it closes in the red.
> 
> Nothing surprise me anymore...




Ended up being pretty boring for the rest of the day..
Did you manage to cover at ~291?

Will be interesting to see if the volatility resumes on the open tomorrow, or if it has found a bit more stability at this level, upon which it can resume its gradual downtrend over the next few months


----------



## skc

VSntchr said:


> Ended up being pretty boring for the rest of the day..
> Did you manage to cover at ~291?
> 
> Will be interesting to see if the volatility resumes on the open tomorrow, or if it has found a bit more stability at this level, upon which it can resume its gradual downtrend over the next few months




Covered at 289.6667.

Kept looking at it all afternoon but decided against trading it. I was not having a good day...


----------



## JTLP

The value destruction of this thing is amazing. Didn't they do a 10 for 1 consolidation not long ago?


----------



## notting

Volume is diminishing  as it labors to where it fell off.
Went nowhere from 12:40pm till the close with volume disappearing whilst the market recovered somewhat. 
A little bearish after a good 10% bounce.
I took a little short at the end and will be watching for what it does at 2.46 and flipping it if looks strong again there, if it falls below that - staying bearish.


----------



## Valued

JTLP said:


> The value destruction of this thing is amazing. Didn't they do a 10 for 1 consolidation not long ago?




I assume if a company has the word "Minerals" in it that they don't do anything but spend shareholders money on stupid stuff. It's highly accurate imo.


----------



## notting

After the insanity of paying a 20c dividend per year whilst losing $294.4 million last year!

It now makes $48.5 million profit beating $42.85 million guidance on the back of improved production at the Prominent Hill, after a long period of mining through low grade materials, achieved despite the copper price slumping by more than 20 per cent in recent months!

Well done!
And the new boss cancels the dividend.
*That's how you turn around a company!*
Market trashes it because it was expecting a dividend - fair enough.
Got out of my short!


----------



## notting

notting said:


> Got out of my short!




It was around $4 then.
Looking a little toppy in the face of copper and a possible turn in gold at 5.78.


----------



## stockGURU

Oz Minerals holding up well despite a 43 per cent drop in half-year profit. Currently up around 1% from yesterday's close.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...3/news-story/4946b50b3b18ebba127f36848f67ac8a


----------



## pixel

stockGURU said:


> Oz Minerals holding up well despite a 43 per cent drop in half-year profit. Currently up around 1% from yesterday's close.
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...3/news-story/4946b50b3b18ebba127f36848f67ac8a




It seems to have lifted in anticipation of improved copper prices. ... and could rise further if the current pennant/ flag pattern plays out "by the book".


----------



## Younga

My point and figure chart has given a sell signal for OZL.  However, I think there's still good potential in the stock.  What are your views? 
Disclaimer - holding OZL calls.


----------



## rederob

Today OZL closed at its highest since March 2012.
Target I am looking at is $16 before year's end.
Copper: Comex warehouses have had 30K tonnes removed this month, while LME have only lost 5K tonnes.  Should US/China trade talks get some traction then drawdowns will gather even greater pace.
OZL's Carrapateena is one of Australia’s largest undeveloped copper deposits - a 4.25 Mtpa underground operation with an estimated mine life of 20 years - and production begins when copper prices are expected to be much higher in 2020.
Meanwhile Prominent Hill is knocking out copper at about US$1.20/lb (AISC) while spot prices are averaging around $2.80/lb.  Its mine life has also been extended to 2030 and its gold production guidance has been increased.
It seems to have re-emerged from Oxiana's ashes more diversified and capable than ever.
Buy the dips when you get a chance!


----------



## rederob

My tip for the March comp - I reckon $11.50 should get hit, and a chance at $12 if LME inventories continue to suffer.


----------



## rnr

Has OZL finally stopped its downward move? Although my knowledge of EW is very limited the chart definitely shows, what I believe to be, a 5 wave move down. From here we should be looking for an a-b-c wave higher.


----------



## peter2

Not many posts on this copper producer even when the price of copper has rallied hard since the COVID selloff. You can see the the stronger copper price rally in the OZL chart. 

I've earned a small parcel of OZL as one of my spec positions (CZI) was taken over by OZL. I'll place an exit stop at 13.00 and "let it ride". Actually what will really happen is that I'll sell OZL and use the cash to buy another spec. Am I too late for the rare earths party?


----------



## tinhat

peter2 said:


> Not many posts on this copper producer even when the price of copper has rallied hard since the COVID selloff. You can see the the stronger copper price rally in the OZL chart.
> 
> I've earned a small parcel of OZL as one of my spec positions (CZI) was taken over by OZL. I'll place an exit stop at 13.00 and "let it ride". Actually what will really happen is that I'll sell OZL and use the cash to buy another spec. Am I too late for the rare earths party?
> 
> View attachment 112781




Me too. Got my OZL through the CZI takeover. I'm happy to ride along for the long term as my cost base is negligible compared to the current share price.

I'm bullish copper long term and OZL have great assets and decent management. I'd like to keep some ownership on West Musgrave just to write on my tombstone that I was there when BHP lost the plot over Nickel. [ when it was run by a South African weirdo who didn't like the smell of curry in the office microwave - anal retentive much?]


----------



## rederob

Copper all-time high was $4.58/lb in February 2011, when OZL's last peak was achieved.


----------



## rederob

Up 7% today.
Copper prices going crazy on supply shortages.
The horizon is not in view.




Hard not to see the previous record copper price not being hit again, and that gets OZL to around $30.


----------



## systematic

rederob said:


> Hard not to see the previous record copper price not being hit again, and that gets OZL to around $30.




Sounds great to me, hope you're right! I had a trade in 2018 (lost around 10%). Got back in around $14.80 last November


----------



## rederob

Up well over 10% in past 2 months:





Long term resistance at $26 about to be threatened.
No idea how long copper prices will run, but as OZL now does well from gold, the two pronged price attack suggests OZL's 2007 record price will likely fall.


----------



## rederob

OZL's quarterly report released today was not awe inspiring.
Higher sustaining costs and weaker gold prices have lowered OZL's expectations.
OZL still has about 40koz of gold hedged at an average price of $1784/oz, which is around $500/oz out of the money.
On the upside, copper prices are now, on average, around 20% higher than the March quarter.
Given OZL expects the next quarter to all round improve, it's share price should remain steady over the period.


----------



## rederob

If gold prices hold up overnight then OZL should crash through $26 on Monday:





Ultimate target price is $42.80 which was OZL's record close in November 2007.


----------



## Sean K

Anyone buy this in March 2020?  Looks like it's falling over a little bit. Copper and gold are going up aren't they?


----------



## sptrawler

Just my luck, I had them for about 10 years and eventually lost patience, sure enough off they go.😭


----------



## barney

sptrawler said:


> Just my luck, I had them for about 10 years and eventually lost patience, sure enough off they go.😭



Its hard to hold when the picture doesn't fit into the frame anymore @sptrawler, as we all know   

OZL chart wise has been a picture of joy for long term Shareholders as @kennas has pointed out

Personally, I have no idea how to value an $8 Billion dollar Company 

Fair dinkum, a couple of my Stocks are valued at over $200 million and I am potentially having a stress attack, lol  

Just on the Chart picture alone, there was a lot of Volume down to that recent $23.50 low.

Under that level may need  some closer attention for anyone with a "short term" position

$8 Billion   !!    If VML ever gets to a 1 (one) Billion MC, I will be slightly beside myself, lol     ...


----------



## sptrawler

I bought at $7 from memory and they ranged forever, so sold them a few years back, today when I saw them on the forum checked the asx price $25. I nearly had a seizure. 🤣


----------



## systematic

Remains a hold for me at ~8.5% of portfolio


----------



## rederob

Nice quarterly report yesterday:





Chart trend points to continued upside:


----------



## Sean K

rederob said:


> Nice quarterly report yesterday:
> View attachment 128049




All looks pretty good, had an amazing 12 months. I thought copper would be just as important as gold going forward. Projections of $15k a tn by 2025. What are they going to do with all that cash?


----------



## Dona Ferentes

kennas said:


> What are they going to do with all that cash?



get taken over?

from one commentator:
As far as *OZ Minerals* is concerned, it’s full speed ahead deeper into copper with a side of gold as the company looks to exploit its considerable prospects for the red metal here and in Brazil.

And yet some investors didn’t see what the company was getting at in a half year result that was full of benefits – higher revenue profits, higher dividends and an ultra-strong balance sheet.

OZL shares were up, then down to a low of $21.34, then recovered to end at $22.01 fora small loss of 0.4% on the day. The shares eased 0.3% to $22.015, valuing the company at $7.35 billion, which, in these days of multi-billion-dollar bids and deals,  would be a snip for a major looking to bolster its position in one of the hot renewable metals of the future.

OZ Minerals produced an impressive triple-digit surge in the first half, driven by a strong operational performance, higher copper volumes and record copper prices.

Net revenue of $986.1 million was 71% higher than the first half of 2020, primarily due to higher copper volumes and price, with copper sales 14,000 tonnes higher and the net Australian dollar copper price 61% higher.

That saw net profit of $286.6 million for the half, up 236% on the $79.8 million earned in the first six months of 2020.

Revenue would have been more than $1 billion for the half but for a $34 million loss that was included within net revenue as final gold hedge contracts were extinguished. Earnings would have therefore topped $300 million for the period.

The surge in copper output and prices saw operating cash flows of $457.4 million for the half, up a huge $306.7 million than in the comparative period in 2020.

The Company ended the half-year with a cash balance of $133.8 million after repaying the $100.0 million corporate debt balance existing at the end of 2020.

Shareholders will get an unchanged interim of 8 cents a share and a special dividend of the same amount. That 16 cents a share leaves most of the 81 cents a share of earnings in the company to help finance the rapid expansion plans it has.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation jumped 123% to $561 million.

In addition, the company finalised its next growth phase with expansions at key copper-producing projects, Prominent Hill (a $600 million new shaft) and Carrapateena.  According to Wednesday’s announcement, the go ahead for the mine expansion at Prominent Hill will create “an exciting future for the asset by extending the mine’s life, lowering unit operating costs, increasing annual copper production by 23% and enabling lower emissions.


> “Importantly, investment in the shaft mine expansion not only provides access to areas previously thought uneconomic, it also opens up potential new prospects”




OZ Minerals said the new Prominent Hill expansion would enable an increase of mining rates to between 4 and 5 million tonnes a year from 2022 onwards, ahead of the shaft mine expansion which will lift mining rates to 6 million tonnes a year from 2025 (ie a 50% plus expansion in annual capacity).

Looking at Carrapateena (to the southeast of Prominent Hill) the company said production at continued to increase during the half year as expected.


> “_In January the board approved the block cave expansion … to increase mine production to a proposed 12 million tonnes a year Mt. The block cave decline early works are scheduled to begin in Q4 2021 while the team continues to focus on debottlenecking and optimising the current sub-level cave production rate to 5 million tonnes a year from 2023.”_






> CEO Andrew Cole said in the statement “_A three-fold increase in our financial performance for the first half of the year has been driven by a strong operational performance and higher copper production, supported by favourable copper pricing._





> _“The Board was keen for shareholders to share in the significant uplift in first half profit, prior to heading into our next growth phase with expansions to commence this year at both Prominent Hill and Carrapateena and a decision on West Musgrave expected in 2022._




The company said that in addition to the first half approvals of the Block Cave expansion at Carrapateena and mine shaft expansion at Prominent Hill 2022 will also see the following decisions:

West Musgrave project on track for an investment decision in the rest of this year and 2022
An integrated targeted geophysics and drilling program planned to commence in Q3 2021 at the Succoth copper deposit with a view to growing the West Musgrave Province
A maiden Mineral Resource at Santa Lucia (within the Carajás East Hub) in Brazil to be declared and a study update during Q3 2021
A Mineral Resource and study update at Pantera (within the potential Carajás West Hub) during Q4 2021
A Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve and study update at CentroGold currently nearing completion. That’s in Brazil as well.
 *………*
Investors should watch for the West Musgrave copper nickel decision – it could mean a third huge mine in South Australia for OZ. it has taken years of exploration, rumours, failures and quiet determination to find and outline what could be a major new metals province.

In its half year report, OZ Minerals said the West Musgrave copper-nickel project has progressed through the last stage of study with drilling at Nebo- Babel, “increasing confidence in our understanding of the ore bodies.”



> _“The study team continues to develop the business case, with increasing levels of accuracy around project definition and optimisation. This includes developing a business case around the development of a downstream intermediate nickel product. “There remains strong alignment with representatives of the Traditional Owners and government approvals continue to progress as planned._






> _“The investment decision remains on track for 2022. The West Musgrave province strategy was also advanced during the first half with the integration of a targeted geophysics and drilling program scheduled to commence in Q3 2021 at the Succoth copper deposit located 13 Km from Nebo-Babel. Succoth has the potential to add upside to the West Musgrave project.”_




OZ Minerals clean balance sheet gives it the strength to finance not only the expansion of Prominent Hill and Carapateena but also the start at West Musgrave.


----------



## divs4ever

Resolution Minerals Announces Farm-in Agreement with Oz Minerals - Wollogorang​Morningstar, 85 minutes ago
Resolution Minerals announced for the execution of multi-year farm-in and JV agreement with copper focussed mid-tier mining company, OZ Minerals (OZL). The agreement will allow the Company and OZL to track the search for copper discoveries on the Company's Wollogorang Project (Project), located in the McArthur Basin in the Northern Territory

 i hold OZL ('free-carried' )

 DYOR

took a lot of 'averaging down ' to get into a comfy spot here 

 nice to see they are keeping up the exploration for new projects


----------



## rederob

OZL is likely to return to around the $26 level on the basis of overnight copper and gold price rebounds, although it will not occur instantly. Copper's price may push to a new record based on incredibly tight present supply, but gold has been mercurial.  However, a continuation of gold's rise over coming weeks is likely to propel OZL to a 2021 record high.
Either way, OZL in or above its present price band looks good for the near term.


----------



## Sean K

rederob said:


> OZL is likely to return to around the $26 level on the basis of overnight copper and gold price rebounds, although it will not occur instantly. Copper's price may push to a new record based on incredibly tight present supply, but gold has been mercurial.  However, a continuation of gold's rise over coming weeks is likely to propel OZL to a 2021 record high.
> Either way, OZL in or above its present price band looks good for the near term.




Agree, the stars are aligning for OZL. Barring any major market correction/crash this is in the right place at the right time. Well, they have for the past 2 years.


----------



## rederob

POG equivocations have restrained OZL while strong copper prices keep its upward trajectory intact:




I put a $30 target price on OZL in July, but unless it perks up a bit more then $29 is the best it will do on trend continuation.
In a separate thread on copper I have been tracking inventories; incredibly tight with less than 100K tonnes available via the SHFE/Comex/LME.


----------



## divs4ever

Sale of Jericho and Eloise joint venture interests to Demetallica

• Sale provides joint venture partner the opportunity to progress the projects
• Realises value while optimising exploration portfolio OZ Minerals (ASX: OZL) today announced it would sell its Jericho and Eloise Joint Venture interests (80 per cent and 70 per cent respectively) to Demetallica, a subsidiary of partner Minotaur Exploration (ASX: MEP), for consideration of A$6.6 million.
The sale also includes a deferred contingent consideration of up to US$8.82 million, calculated at the rate of US$0.04 per pound of payable copper above 200kt contained copper and a further A$2.75 million upon completion of a pre-feasibility study.
 The sale is subject to the key transaction terms set out below.
OZ Minerals has copper focused exploration joint ventures with MEP in the Cloncurry region of Queensland and Gawler Craton region of South Australia. 
The Jericho project (OZL 80%; MEP 20%) and Eloise project (OZL 70%; MEP 30%) are the subject of today’s announcement. A maiden Mineral Resource estimate of the Jericho copper-gold system of 9.1Mt @ 1.4% Cu and 0.3g/t Au1 was announced in July 2020.
OZ Minerals Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Cole, said: “Ground EM proved to be effective in the search for buried, non-magnetic but conductive minerals systems Minotaur and OZ Minerals discovered copper and gold mineralisation at the Jericho prospect late in 2017.
 Subsequent drilling during 2018-2019 led to a Maiden Resource being released to the market in mid-2020. “Whilst a discovery, the resource at Jericho did not meet our requirements to continue so we have agreed for our partner’s subsidiary, Demetallica, to gain 100% ownership of the project. 1 Maiden Jericho Resource and Cloncurry exploration update, released 16 July 2020, available at https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200716/pdf/44kkzdc6ljty34.pdf

“Our Exploration strategy is to partner with junior explorers who bring new ideas and regional expertise in a way that allows us to test theories and quickly determine the attractiveness of a project. This is a good example of how our partnering approach allows us to continually turnover our portfolio of exploration projects as we search for our next material discovery. “We look forward to continuing to work in partnership with MEP under our various joint ventures.”

DYOR

 i hold OZL ( 'free-carried ' )


----------



## rederob

My third pick in the 2022 tipping comp:




On trend continuation we get a possible $38 outcome in a year's time.
That's a tough ask given we are not in a mining boom.
However, if BEV production continues at present rates then copper scarcity will keep prices elevated well beyond 2022.


----------



## divs4ever

was some worrying times when i first stated  buying OZL

 from $1.45 ( pre-consolidation ) in April 2011  ( then the 10 into one consolidation ) i continued to average down until  $2.72 ( post consolidation  aka down over 80% ) in December 2013  ... and have since recovered all that investment cash ( so only the profits are running currently )

 but yes certainly has been a test of faith ( and another lesson in consolidations .. aka  when do you hold or buy the drop , and when do you DUMP and run )

if i hadn't 'averaged  down '  i would have currently been up less than 100% ( on the equivalent $14.90 paid  for the first parcel )

 now this strategy does NOT always work  ( BLY and ARI/OST  were brilliant examples of an epic fail ) so be careful when and where you use it


----------



## mullokintyre

Have put OZL in the yearly comp.
Expecting big things from copper this year as EV vehicles really start to ramp up.
My realm preferred copper plays are under 10 cents so don't qualify, OZL is my proxy.
Mick


----------



## Sean K

This recent dip and fall through a support line to the next might have been a good opportunity. Another leg down in the XAO might mean we hit the next more significant support line. 

Whichever resource analyst I watch on you tube talking about key metals and fundamentals, they all say copper.


----------



## Sean K

Sean K said:


> This recent dip and fall through a support line to the next might have been a good opportunity. Another leg down in the XAO might mean we hit the next more significant support line.
> 
> Whichever resource analyst I watch on you tube talking about key metals and fundamentals, they all say copper.
> 
> View attachment 137024



Significant bounce off that support at 24 bucks. Doubtful it will make it to the bottom line above at 21 unless there's a general crash.


----------



## Sean K

OZL FY21 Highlights. They are definitely in a sweet spot at the moment. Can't see copper crashing down any time soon.


----------



## divs4ever

yes turned out to be worth all the worry and calculations ( averaging down )

 am currently up just over 400% ( but weren't there some anxious moments getting there )


----------



## Sean K

OZ definitely bounced off support. World's running out of copper deposits. World needs more copper. Can only mean one thing.


----------



## Gunnerguy

Considering .....

OZL : Buy 1,000 @ 26.89 = $26,890.
Sell 27C option, 21April, 27 DTE, PM = $1,000.
If assigned => Net $1,110 on $26,890 = 4%  in 27 days.
If no assigned => Retain PM of $1,000.

I like OZL for long term so if my shares don't get called away I am happy.

Yes I could just buy OZL in the current environment and hope/expect copper to do well in the short/intermediate term, however I am looking for income.

Any thoughts ?

Gunnerguy.


----------



## finicky

While a ST rally looks likely soon, I think the longer term still looks dodgy on the basis of the overhead height from $20 as well as the recent rate of descent. Not a high conviction view though. As to valuation, I don't see it as undervalued yet based on historical performance but I haven't any idea of growth prospects that have been mentioned by others. FY21 was boom time, whereas now doubt is seeping in - which would attract contrarians. James Gerrish backing it at this price for the fund(s) he manages seems a plus.

Not Held

James Gerrish on livewire today:


We made a number of changes to portfolios today, generally increasing our exposure to resources into prevailing weakness – an international alert out shortly.
Goldmans went the other way and have downgraded their commodity price assumptions and outlook on the sector – *Oz Minerals (OZL)* cut to neutral but $20.50 price target v this mornings open of $15.93…We have gone the other way buying OZL today.


----------



## divs4ever

BHP ANNOUNCES NON-BINDING INDICATIVE PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE OZ MINERALS LIMITED​
BHP has submitted a non-binding indicative proposal to the Board of OZL on 5 August 2022
to acquire 100% of the issued share capital in OZL by way of a scheme of arrangement (the
Proposal).
BHP’s Proposal to acquire all of OZL’s shares for cash consideration of A$25.00 per share1
,
represents a compelling value proposition for OZL shareholders. The consideration represents
an attractive premium of:
• 32.1% to OZL’s closing price of A$18.92 per share on 5 August 2022; and
• 41.4% to OZL’s 30-day VWAP of A$17.67 per share up to and including 5 August 2022.
BHP’s Proposal represents a significant premium to the market value of OZL at the time the
Proposal was submitted, at a price that was materially above the average broker price targets.
The cash offer would deliver immediate value to OZL shareholders and de-risk any value which
may (or may not) eventually be reflected in OZL’s share price.
BHP’s Proposal is subject to certain conditions including completion of confirmatory due
diligence to the satisfaction of BHP, entry into a scheme implementation agreement and a
unanimous recommendation from the OZL Board that OZL shareholders vote in favour of the
Proposal in the absence of a superior proposal.
BHP CEO Mike Henry said:
“Our proposal represents compelling value and certainty for OZ Minerals shareholders in the
face of a deteriorating external environment and increased OZL operational and growth related
funding challenges.
“We are disappointed that the Board of OZL has indicated that it is not willing to entertain our
compelling offer or provide us with access to due diligence in relation to our proposal.”


============================================================

DYOR

i hold OZL ( 'free-carried' ) and BHP

am not particularly attracted to an all cash offer


----------



## Sean K

divs4ever said:


> BHP ANNOUNCES NON-BINDING INDICATIVE PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE OZ MINERALS LIMITED​
> BHP has submitted a non-binding indicative proposal to the Board of OZL on 5 August 2022
> to acquire 100% of the issued share capital in OZL by way of a scheme of arrangement (the
> Proposal).
> BHP’s Proposal to acquire all of OZL’s shares for cash consideration of A$25.00 per share1
> ,
> represents a compelling value proposition for OZL shareholders. The consideration represents
> an attractive premium of:
> • 32.1% to OZL’s closing price of A$18.92 per share on 5 August 2022; and
> • 41.4% to OZL’s 30-day VWAP of A$17.67 per share up to and including 5 August 2022.
> BHP’s Proposal represents a significant premium to the market value of OZL at the time the
> Proposal was submitted, at a price that was materially above the average broker price targets.
> The cash offer would deliver immediate value to OZL shareholders and de-risk any value which
> may (or may not) eventually be reflected in OZL’s share price.
> BHP’s Proposal is subject to certain conditions including completion of confirmatory due
> diligence to the satisfaction of BHP, entry into a scheme implementation agreement and a
> unanimous recommendation from the OZL Board that OZL shareholders vote in favour of the
> Proposal in the absence of a superior proposal.
> BHP CEO Mike Henry said:
> “Our proposal represents compelling value and certainty for OZ Minerals shareholders in the
> face of a deteriorating external environment and increased OZL operational and growth related
> funding challenges.
> “We are disappointed that the Board of OZL has indicated that it is not willing to entertain our
> compelling offer or provide us with access to due diligence in relation to our proposal.”
> 
> 
> ============================================================
> 
> DYOR
> 
> i hold OZL ( 'free-carried' ) and BHP
> 
> am not particularly attracted to an all cash offer




Topping up on weakness on this puppy might have been a good idea.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Topping up on weakness on this puppy might have been a good idea.



got in at 17.14, hopefully nice profit ahead..sadly a 10k parcel only but that s a happy frog, less happy with where to put that money in, definitively not in BHP...


----------



## mullokintyre

divs4ever said:


> am not particularly attracted to an all cash offer



I am. I love cash.
Mick


----------



## mullokintyre

qldfrog said:


> got in at 17.14, hopefully nice profit ahead..sadly a 10k parcel only but that s a happy frog, less happy with where to put that money in, definitively not in BHP...



 10k shares is a fair chunk!.
Mick


----------



## qldfrog

mullokintyre said:


> 10k shares is a fair chunk!.
> Mick



10k $..sorry for misunderstanding


----------



## Sean K

Should be a good day for copper miners.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

mullokintyre said:


> I am. I love cash.
> Mick



"Always take the cash" - _Kerry Packer _


----------



## divs4ever

mullokintyre said:


> I am. I love cash.
> Mick





 my notional  SP is $5.17  ( have rescued the actual investment cash a while back )


DIVIDEND TYPEDIVIDEND AMOUNT ($)FRANKEDEX-DIV DATEPAY DATE*Final*0.180100.00%24/02/202211/03/2022*Interim*0.160100.00%23/08/202107/09/2021*Final*0.170100.00%11/03/202126/03/2021*Interim*0.080100.00%17/09/202005/10/2020*Final*0.150100.00%11/03/202026/03/2020*Interim*0.080100.00%02/09/201917/09/2019*Final*0.150100.00%11/03/201926/03/2019*Interim*0.080100.00%31/08/201817/09/2018*Final*0.140100.00%09/03/201826/03/2018*Interim*0.060100.00%06/09/201721/09/2017*Final*0.140100.00%09/03/201724/03/2017

 not exactly eye-watering returns  .. but considering the investment cash is parked elsewhere .. ( and that franking is always useful )


----------



## peter2

This copper bull is happy to see the bid for a short term gain but disappointed to miss out on another 30% in the medium term. The bid has sparked demand in the other Cu miners though.

_Edit: I've sold half at 25.50 and will hold the remainder for a higher offer near $29. _


----------



## mullokintyre

peter2 said:


> This copper bull is happy to see the bid for a short term gain but disappointed to miss out on another 30% in the medium term. The bid has sparked demand in the other Cu miners though.
> 
> _Edit: I've sold half at 25.50 and will hold the remainder for a higher offer near $29. _



Smart strategy.
I also sold half,  and just going to sit on the rest to see what happens.
Mick


----------



## divs4ever

just sitting  and watching here  and BHP didn't dip enough  to tempt me to add extra  there  either


----------



## greggles

Interesting that Mike Henry has claimed that OZL are not providing BHP access to due diligence in relation to the offer. Looks like OZL are stonewalling the proposal completely and making things as difficult for BHP as they can, which is probably a good idea if they believe the offer undervalues the company.

Those shareholders who are happy with the $25 BHP are offering can exit today for more than that. With OZL currently trading at $25.51 the market is clearly of the view that BHP will either fail in the takeover or be forced to pay more for OZL.


----------



## qldfrog

divs4ever said:


> my notional  SP is $5.17  ( have rescued the actual investment cash a while back )
> 
> 
> DIVIDEND TYPEDIVIDEND AMOUNT ($)FRANKEDEX-DIV DATEPAY DATE*Final*0.180100.00%24/02/202211/03/2022*Interim*0.160100.00%23/08/202107/09/2021*Final*0.170100.00%11/03/202126/03/2021*Interim*0.080100.00%17/09/202005/10/2020*Final*0.150100.00%11/03/202026/03/2020*Interim*0.080100.00%02/09/201917/09/2019*Final*0.150100.00%11/03/201926/03/2019*Interim*0.080100.00%31/08/201817/09/2018*Final*0.140100.00%09/03/201826/03/2018*Interim*0.060100.00%06/09/201721/09/2017*Final*0.140100.00%09/03/201724/03/2017
> 
> not exactly eye-watering returns  .. but considering the investment cash is parked elsewhere .. ( and that franking is always useful )



Well decided to sell at market: 25.68$
And get the cash in hand earlier.we could see a bidding war..who knows but i can reinvest profit tomorrow in a loser😁


----------



## divs4ever

am watching AIS climb a little ( a paltry 10% )

 am tempted to crunch the numbers  and see if i should reduce the holding  ( i bought the last parcel @ 38 cents  while trading deferred settlement )


----------



## finicky

Another shrewd call from James Gerrish as published on Livewire 'Market Matters *12 July*:

Not Held 

James Gerrish on livewire today (i.e 12 July) :

We made a number of changes to portfolios today, generally increasing our exposure to resources into prevailing weakness – an international alert out shortly.
Goldmans went the other way and have downgraded their commodity price assumptions and outlook on the sector – *Oz Minerals (OZL)* cut to neutral but $20.50 price target v this mornings open of $15.93…We have gone the other way buying OZL today.


----------



## redsmartie

Could be a good time to switch to a dividend play, banks getting expensive with all their interest rate hikes. I sold OZL a long time ago.


----------



## Sean K

I'm hoping Glencore, Vale or Rio put their noses in. BHP are being very opportunistic here and OZL are correct to stonewall. Could be a $30 takeover. Not selling, even if the bid falls completely over. It means there's appetite in the market for consolidation and long term this is going to be much more valuable IMO.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> I'm hoping Glencore, Vale or Rio put their noses in. BHP are being very opportunistic here and OZL are correct to stonewall. Could be a $30 takeover. Not selling, even if the bid falls completely over. It means there's appetite in the market for consolidation and long term this is going to be much more valuable IMO.



In "normal" times outwith threats of war, deglobalisation and interruption of all supply chains I would agree @Sean K . 

This an opportune moment for BHP to take out OZL and the instos however may be comfortable with accepting a slightly higher bid. 

gg


----------



## finicky

My intŕinsic valuation of OZL - $19 and that's with 2 dollars added on for putative near term growth.
Worked off FY18 eps as the median over 5 past years, ROE fy18 = 8% on book value fy21 of $11
Take the money before BHP (held) recognizes its madness and folds 

Not Held
(runs away 🏃‍♂️)


----------



## Sean K

finicky said:


> My intŕinsic valuation of OZL - $19 and that's with 2 dollars added on for putative near term growth.
> Worked off FY18 eps as the median over 5 past years, ROE fy18 = 8% on book value fy21 of $11
> Take the money before BHP (held) recognizes its madness and folds (runs away 🏃‍♂️)
> 
> Not Held




Copper ran ahead of itself recently on the back of future expectations and not expecting a recession. OZL ran with it, so it might have been overvalued at the time. But, I think you're missing the dearth of Cu discoveries in the past 10 years and current mines running out of inventory. I think OZL is priced with an expectation of a supply demand crisis in the next 5 years, which just about every analyst is predicting. The biggest issue for bringing additional copper on line is the lengthy time from discovery to mining due to ESG and financing. I'm not sure if there's a single major project that might get to filling the future gap in the next 5 years.

A couple of scenarios below.


----------



## finicky

I wonder if those global market intelligence chart painters have a global deflationary collapse among their scenarios. How serious will nations be about 'accelerated energy transition' if/when it comes to the crunch.
How does cold or hot war fit in? Germany for example is already turning back to coal because of Putin.

BHP usually makes mistakes with its big acquisitions (and divestments arguably)
Probably has the magnificent Hammer Metals (HMX) or CNB in its sights now.


----------



## bk1

Sean K said:


> the dearth of Cu discoveries in the past 10 years and current mines running out of inventory



Surely the biggest decision will be over West Musgrave...... FID expected this year and could cost a Billion dollars.
Prominent Hill expansion...
Cash on hand, $80M.
Who do you think can handle it the best ?


----------



## Sean K

finicky said:


> I wonder if those global market intelligence chart painters have a global deflationary collapse among their scenarios. How serious will nations be about 'accelerated energy transition' if/when it comes to the crunch.
> How does cold or hot war fit in? Germany for example is already turning back to coal because of Putin.
> 
> BHP usually makes mistakes with its big acquisitions (and divestments arguably)
> Probably has the magnificent Hammer Metals (HMX) or CNB in its sights now.




Yes, agree, the World growth projections/demand may not be as expected with all that's going on. But, I think once we get over the coming depression and WW3 we'll go back to trying to stop the weather getting hot.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Yes, agree, the World growth projections/demand may not be as expected with all that's going on. But, I think once we get over the coming depression and WW3 we'll go back to trying to stop the weather getting hot.



Or too cold based on solar and earth cycles or volcanic eruptions.goodluck achieving that with windmills and Teslas 🤣


----------



## divs4ever

redsmartie said:


> Could be a good time to switch to a dividend play, banks getting expensive with all their interest rate hikes. I sold OZL a long time ago.



 i sold DOWN OZL ( not out ) has been a patience tester ( in 2016/2017 ) , but is finally looking OK (  considering it is risk-free income for me )

 has been a bumpy ride  , and would be unhappy if my copper exposure was mainly AIS and BHP

 but time will tell 

 but was pleasantly surprised that OZL management rejected the offer quickly ( some other companies i have held have been just as quick to sell out )

 div. plays might be hard to find   if the easy credit dries up


----------



## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> Yes, agree, the World growth projections/demand may not be as expected with all that's going on. But, I think once we get over the coming depression and WW3 we'll go back to trying to stop the weather getting hot.



 depressions normally last for years  and sometimes including a major war  in the financial devastation 

 am not sure climate change will get much traction if we survive WW3 ( most will be desperate to stay alive , and tone-deaf to almost every government )

 Australia is a very different place to WW1 and WW2 eras


----------



## divs4ever

finicky said:


> I wonder if those global market intelligence chart painters have a global deflationary collapse among their scenarios. How serious will nations be about 'accelerated energy transition' if/when it comes to the crunch.
> How does cold or hot war fit in? Germany for example is already turning back to coal because of Putin.
> 
> BHP usually makes mistakes with its big acquisitions (and divestments arguably)
> Probably has the magnificent Hammer Metals (HMX) or CNB in its sights now.



 i see OZL bought a few shares in CNB   , surely BHP wouldn't  buy OZL for all  the OZL investment plays 

if that was the strategy i am surprised S32  didn't jump in first  ( ahead of BHP ) ( i also hold S32 )


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## finicky

James Gerrish's comment on Monday 8 Aug regarding the BHP offer. The analyst quoted reckons $30 would provide a more conventional premium. Anyway, Gerrish's 'Market Matters' fund has taken something off the table - "Wise move", I emailed him and directed him to my own valuation publsihed here. Am still waiting on a reply but will post here when it arrives. 

Livewire: Market Matters

OZL +35.25%: This morning, OZL rejected an unsolicited, conditional and non-binding indicative takeover proposal of $25.00 per share in cash from BHP. The board thought the proposal undervalued OZ Minerals and, as such, is not in the best interests of shareholders. The OZL CEO said…. OZ Minerals CEO comments: _"We have a unique set of copper and nickel assets, all with strong long-term growth potential in quality locations. We are mining minerals that are in strong demand, particularly for the global electrification and decarbonisation thematic and we have a long-life Resource and Reserve base. We do not consider the proposal from BHP sufficiently recognises these attributes."._

While the price represents a 32% premium to the last close for OZL on Friday, it’s only a 13% premium to the 6-month volume weighted average price which highlights the opportunistic timing from BHP as they try to take out OZL after a deep pullback in the share price. So, if $25 is not the price, what is? Our (Shaw) analyst, Peter O’Connor thinks it should be based on a 30% premium to NPV for OZL, which is a typical sort of resource premium for a change of control transaction. At that level, OZL is worth ~$30 per share.

We own OZL in our Flagship Growth Portfolio with a 5% weighting and an entry price of $18.11. We have trimmed the position today back to 3% and will see how this plays out from here.

Not Held


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## Dona Ferentes

It turns out BHP and OZ Minerals were in discussions about offtake agreements for the latter’s West Musgrave project in Western Australia, prior to the bid for the entire company.

This brings the view round to two major points

BHP is looking for better performance for Olympic Dam and its copper operations
Also had been thinking strategically about securing nickel concentrate for its WA smelters.


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## divs4ever

Dona Ferentes said:


> It turns out BHP and OZ Minerals were in discussions about offtake agreements for the latter’s West Musgrave project in Western Australia, prior to the bid for the entire company.
> 
> This brings the view round to two major points
> 
> BHP is looking for better performance for Olympic Dam and its copper operations
> Also had been thinking strategically about securing nickel concentrate for its WA smelters.



an expensive way to access more nickel ore  for Nickel West

 since OZL has financial interests in several juniors ( or JVs in  projects )

 would a BHP take-over would that trigger  divestments  ( or further take-overs ) ( of those juniors )

 i guess we will have to wait to see if BHP makes an offer OZL management is willing to listen to


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## Sean K

divs4ever said:


> an expensive way to access more nickel ore  for Nickel West
> 
> since OZL has financial interests in several juniors ( or JVs in  projects )
> 
> would a BHP take-over would that trigger  divestments  ( or further take-overs ) ( of those juniors )
> 
> i guess we will have to wait to see if BHP makes an offer OZL management is willing to listen to




Yes,  OZ has a large number of JV and exploration plays. I guess BHP would have to look at them each in detail post takeover and decide what they'd keep or toss. Anything that wasn't potentially T1 in a T1 jurisdiction would probably get the boot.


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## divs4ever

so far i hadn't seen  any JVs that are a jaw dropper , but some are very early stage  , so could be hard to tell 

 last i heard Olympic Dam has massive room for expansion and yet BHP opted to focus investment in South America 

 maybe we will find out more later 

 surely BHP wouldn't just  keep Musgrave  and shunt the rest at S32  who is quite happy with tier 2 assets  ( that would make some sense if BHP still had an interest in S32)


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## divs4ever

since i already hold MCR ( 'free-carried' )  wouldn't  an offer thrown at MCR ( and a cash injection later ) make more sense  , if they were mainly after more nickel ( and copper with a little cobalt )


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## Dona Ferentes

At the Annual Results,  BHP boss Mike Henry reiterated his disappointment that the OZ board had rejected the bid without offering BHP the chance to conduct due diligence, saying the $25 per share offer represented “_very full value and a fair offer_".

Mr Henry said he would remain “_so, so disciplined_” about the offer for OZ, adding that the South Australian copper miner would be _“nice to have”_ but was by no means an essential addition to BHP’s portfolio..

.._.. tough guy talk _?


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## Sean K

Dona Ferentes said:


> At the Annual Results,  BHP boss Mike Henry reiterated his disappointment that the OZ board had rejected the bid without offering BHP the chance to conduct due diligence, saying the $25 per share offer represented “_very full value and a fair offer_".
> 
> Mr Henry said he would remain “_so, so disciplined_” about the offer for OZ, adding that the South Australian copper miner would be _“nice to have”_ but was by no means an essential addition to BHP’s portfolio..
> 
> .._.. tough guy talk _?




I think he's keen to display a sense of discipline, but what price is discipline? Probably under $30 as a guess. $28-29 maybe - OZL's highs made in Jan. That might still seem unders for the OZL board but I'd be happy for that considering it went as low as $15.80.


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## divs4ever

i was buying as low as $2.72 in December 2013 

 but it has sure tested patience and faith to get here today 

 depending on how quickly OZ expands  ( over expansion/over-investment is possible  here ) it could be a solid mid-tier player  BUT has lots  of interests and JVs  so maybe not what BHP desires  ( extra complexity )


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## Sean K

2022 Half Year Results.

I think the drop off in performance to guidance was reflected in the SP decline until the BHP offer came in. It's a poor H1 compared to 22 guidance. Can't find any guidance in their report that they're going to make up the difference in H2.


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## Dona Ferentes

now, will this influence BHP one way or t'other?


_OZ Minerals *makes Final Investment Decision* on West Musgrave  _
_West Musgrave to be one of the world’s largest, lowest cost, lowest emissions coppernickel projects_
_Capacity to fully fund West Musgrave _
_... New $1.2 billion syndicated facility supported by key relationship banks, subject to final binding agreements _
_Feasibility Study finalised_


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## Sean K

I wonder how much extra BHP are going to pay? $30 I guess.


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## divs4ever

i wasn't assuming that 

 OZL has plenty of interests in small and mid-cap miners  , and i was thinking one of those is being snapped up ( or just a controlling stake without a complete buyout )


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## Sean K

divs4ever said:


> i wasn't assuming that
> 
> OZL has plenty of interests in small and mid-cap miners  , and i was thinking one of those is being snapped up ( or just a controlling stake without a complete buyout )




It's been reported in the news as the BHP deal. I think if they were taking over someone else they would be in a halt, not OZL. Fingers crossed it's around the $30 mark, will be a nice pay day.


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## divs4ever

i would rather keep the OZL 

 my average buying price is just over $5.17  ( and rescued that investment cash a couple or years back ) i would rather OZL as a bottom drawer stock , instead another bundle of cash i need to find a home for


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## Sean K

divs4ever said:


> i would rather keep the OZL
> 
> my average buying price is just over $5.17  ( and rescued that investment cash a couple or years back ) i would rather OZL as a bottom drawer stock , instead another bundle of cash i need to find a home for




Yeah, pretty tough having to find a place for a six bagger - less capital gains. It'll be a script offer I imagine so I suppose it's a question of whether you want the cash or the BHP shares. I'll be selling I think to buy something more speculative so I can then lose it all.


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## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> Yeah, pretty tough having to find a place for a six bagger - less capital gains. It'll be a script offer I imagine so I suppose it's a question of whether you want the cash or the BHP shares. I'll be selling I think to buy something more speculative so I can then lose it all.



 although i am losing faith in BHP ( i already hold a comfortable amount )  ,  would probably go for the scrip  in preference , 
 i normally do better with boring , solid stocks , that eventually catch investors attention (  SNL ,BKL and GRR as examples )

 but inflation will eat into that cash soon enough  , even when left in the bank


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## mullokintyre

divs4ever said:


> i would rather keep the OZL
> 
> my average buying price is just over $5.17  ( and rescued that investment cash a couple or years back ) i would rather OZL as a bottom drawer stock , instead another bundle of cash i need to find a home for



Happy to help you out with that cash, Divs.
Mick


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## Sean K

Talk of BHP eventually having to cough up $40 a share is a bit overs I reckon. But, I'll take it.


_Shaw and Partners mining analyst Peter O’Connor said in a client note on Wednesday he believed BHP would need to pitch a revised $30 a share bid – valuing OZ Minerals at about $10bn – to kick off any engagement from the OZ Minerals board.

“To get to game point BHP may need to think closer to $40 a share,” he said._


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## finicky

James Gerrish 

*Oz Minerals (ASX: OZL) $26.30*​OZL (halted): was in a trading halt today pending the announcement of a change of control transaction - a takeover in other words. As we know, BHP bid $25 a share for the Copper miner and that price was rejected without giving BHP the chance to look under the hood. Two things could be happening here:


BHP could have made a new bid which is clearly ‘Material’ for OZL (hence the trading halt), but not for BHP given it would represent less than 5% of their market cap, however, while the letter of the law says BHP don’t need to be halted, the profile of this deal in Australia is big and we would have thought BHP would stop trading while the news was being worked through.
This brings up the prospect that another suitor has joined the fray, whether that’s Glencore or some other global player, it would certainly make things more interesting and create more tension in the price
Our well-regarded (Shaw) analyst on OZL Peter O’Connor wrote this recently….* To get to GAME point BHP may need to think closer to $40/share.* Our recent missive, which joined the dots to peer RIO vs TRQ bid – highlighted that a $40/share valuation was not out of the question.


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## Sean K

finicky said:


> James Gerrish
> 
> *Oz Minerals (ASX: OZL) $26.30*​OZL (halted): was in a trading halt today pending the announcement of a change of control transaction - a takeover in other words. As we know, BHP bid $25 a share for the Copper miner and that price was rejected without giving BHP the chance to look under the hood. Two things could be happening here:
> 
> 
> BHP could have made a new bid which is clearly ‘Material’ for OZL (hence the trading halt), but not for BHP given it would represent less than 5% of their market cap, however, while the letter of the law says BHP don’t need to be halted, the profile of this deal in Australia is big and we would have thought BHP would stop trading while the news was being worked through.
> This brings up the prospect that another suitor has joined the fray, whether that’s Glencore or some other global player, it would certainly make things more interesting and create more tension in the price
> Our well-regarded (Shaw) analyst on OZL Peter O’Connor wrote this recently….* To get to GAME point BHP may need to think closer to $40/share.* Our recent missive, which joined the dots to peer RIO vs TRQ bid – highlighted that a $40/share valuation was not out of the question.




Best outcome for holders may be a bidding match between BHP and Glencore. I read somewhere that Glencore were sniffing West Musgrave so BHP felt compelled to drive back in with a revised bid. Perhaps Glencore will then come in for the whole piece. Whatever the case, might be a nice Christmas present for current holders.


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## mullokintyre

It would be nice if all of our miners were taken over by foreign interests at good prices, then we could up the royalties to the sky.
Mick


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## Sean K

I think most punters expected something closer to $30...


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## divs4ever

i hold OZL ( 'free-carried' ) and BHP

looks like the OZL board lacks backbone and should resign if shareholders reject this offer


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## Sean K

divs4ever said:


> i hold OZL ( 'free-carried' ) and BHP
> 
> looks like the OZL board lacks backbone and should resign if shareholders reject this offer




Punters don't like it. Trading $1 under the indicative price which is odd. Need Glencore to come sniffing about.


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## divs4ever

well i am not in favor of the deal  ( especially being all cash ) and totally unimpressed at the speedy recommendation  by the board of directors  ( was it unanimous  ?? )

 i did a quick check and OZL directors  also have deck-chairs at other companies ,  are they all busy  looking for board seats elsewhere  while grabbing the extra pay-day 

Director Interest as of Last Notice​
NAMELAST NOTICE DATEDIRECT SHARESINDIRECT SHARESOPTIONSCONVERTIBLESMr Richard Phillip Seville11/03/2022016,750----Mr Charlie Sartain09/12/2020080,000----Mr Peter Wasow04/03/2020020,000----Ms Rebecca Joy McGrath23/02/2022056,292----Ms Tonianne Dwyer18/03/2020019,900----Dr Sarah Elizabeth Ryan02/09/20213,5005,000----Mr Andrew Cole08/04/2022173,589597,831----
***
The OZL Board has confirmed to BHP that it intends to unanimously recommend the Revised Proposal to OZL
shareholders as being in the best interests of OZL shareholders in the absence of a superior proposal subject
to the parties entering into a binding scheme implementation agreement (SIA) following completion of BHP’s
confirmatory due diligence and an independent expert concluding that the Revised Proposal is in the best
interests of OZL shareholders.
***


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## greggles

Sean K said:


> Punters don't like it. Trading $1 under the indicative price which is odd. Need Glencore to come sniffing about.




It's a lowball offer by BHP who are hoping to get a bargain. I'm surprised that the OZL Board is recommending it to shareholders but I suppose it's difficult to reject it in the face of an Independent Expert Report that says the takeover is in the best interest of shareholders. It's a difficult position to be in. If you reject it and it fails and the share price goes down you are left with egg on your face.


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## divs4ever

correction  :-   the CEO Andrew Cole  seems to be the only director   with a total focus on OZL  ( no director seats elsewhere )

 so i find it surprising he would rush to agree  , was he already planning  retirement ??


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## divs4ever

the speedy recommendation implies the directors  expect this is close to the company's peak 

which in OZL's case  which is surprising given the funding  and JV's with several smaller miners and explorers , it seems to have plenty of projects going forward


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## finicky

Not being an OZL holder I haven't bothered to look but from my experience of takeovers of companies I've held the management usually gets the inducement of all their performance shares and options vesting - so they don't need to wait or satisfy hurdles.

Not Held


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## Craton

As a HAV holder, there was a recent Strategic Alliance with OZL announcement so thought that was why there was an uptick in HAV SP, then BHP came into the fray. Keen to know more of what will transpire with these JV/Alliances of OZL.


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## divs4ever

indeed OZL had some interesting alliances/JVs across Australia 

 i would suppose ACCC  concerns will be brushed aside ( after all the smaller players are the future of Australian miners , you still need somebody to go out and take sample and drill-cores )


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## Sean K

So, when is this going to start trading at $28.25 so I can sell it.


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## frugal.rock

In about 10 minutes or so... 🤪🤐😱


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## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> So, when is this going to start trading at $28.25 so I can sell it.
> 
> View attachment 150800



may as well wait and see if there is a special div. ( to use up the franking credits ) on maybe even a late counter-offer  depending on who a second bidder is a scrip component  would win me over  ( although i still prefer to hold OZL  , so far )


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## Dona Ferentes

_Board is on board_

BHP has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with OZ Minerals Limited (OZL) to acquire 100% of OZL by way of a scheme of arrangement for a cash price of A$28.25 per OZL share.

The SID confirms the terms of the Scheme and BHP’s non-binding indicative proposal announced on 18 November 2022. The execution of the SID follows the completion of a four-week exclusive due diligence period.

BHP’s offer price of A$28.25 per OZL share corresponds to an enterprise value of A$9.6 billion for OZL and represents a significant and attractive premium of:
- 49.3% to OZL’s closing price of A$18.92 per share on 5 August 2022, being the last trading day prior to the initial proposal by BHP; and
- 59.8% to OZL’s 30-day VWAP of A$17.67 per share up to and including 5 August 2022.


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## peter2

BHP's offer was an opportunistic one timed to coincide with a price dip in the copper market. Copper prices have risen 10% and IMHO the offer represents no premium for the OZL holders. OZL shareholders have been ripped off while BHP has got a bargain.


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## divs4ever

peter2 said:


> while BHP has got a bargain.



i seem to remember  a similar claim  made  on potash  and US shale oil ( made by BHP )

 the ones almost guaranteed to get shafted are the smaller companies OZL invested in  either as a shareholder or JV partner ( unless BHP passes them off to S32 )

 ... but another board on the ASX that barely puts up a fight (sigh )


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## Sean K

divs4ever said:


> may as well wait and see if there is a special div. ( to use up the franking credits ) on maybe even a late counter-offer  depending on who a second bidder is a scrip component  would win me over  ( although i still prefer to hold OZL  , so far )




Maybe a special div.


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## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> Maybe a special div.
> 
> View attachment 150848



i suspected OZL  had some franking credits up their sleeve ,  but cents ( not a dollar or more )

 i guess time will tell


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