# How much of your trading capital do you risk per trade?



## StockyGuy (10 May 2019)

Someone just started a thread here saying they will risk 0.025% per trade.

I think conventional wisdom is 1-2%.  

I think a discretionary trader who feels they're in the zone might risk 5-10% of their capital on a single trade.

What percentage is too much?


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## willoneau (10 May 2019)

Hi StockyGuy , did you read why i said 0.025%?
5% is extreme 
10% is gambling


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## Wyatt (10 May 2019)

Conventional wisdom being 1-2% risk/trade avoids risk of ruin and this alone will keep you in the game long enough to work out if you do or don't have an edge in the market. 

Dropping bombs on potential trades might be exciting but will separate you from your money over the cycle unless your timing/discipline is better than almost everyone else. 

In hindsight this could have worked over the last 4 months and selected other periods in the past, but hindsight in reality is only available after the fact.


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## Zaxon (10 May 2019)

StockyGuy said:


> I think conventional wisdom is 1-2%.
> What percentage is too much?



It depends on what type of investor you are.  If you're strictly buy-and-hold, then, say, 5% per stock might make sense, because you'll hold it through thick and thin.  And who's going to manage a portfolio of 100 stocks to keep the risk at 1%?

For all other investors and traders, I think 2% upper limit makes sense.  Personally I use 1% excluding slippage and fees.  So that works out to be 1 point something percent.

The other risk to consider is portfolio heat.  What happens if the whole market drops at once?  That could be 2% per stock multiple by the number of stocks you own, which is a far larger number.


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## Value Collector (11 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Hi StockyGuy , did you read why i said 0.025%?
> 5% is extreme
> 10% is gambling




I am not a trader, I take longer term investment positions.

But in general I don’t want to be in more than 10 companies, and I may have 50% or more in my favorite one.

Limiting myself to 2% in each company seems crazy, I couldn’t possible know 50 companies as well as I could know 6, and once I got to that level of diversification I may as well just buy an index fund, and go to Disneyland.


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## willoneau (11 May 2019)

i think investing is a little different , when you say you can have 50% in one company do you buy with one order or scale in?
if you do scale in what % would be your first position?


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## aus_trader (11 May 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I am not a trader, I take longer term investment positions.
> 
> But in general I don’t want to be in more than 10 companies, and I may have 50% or more in my favorite one.
> 
> Limiting myself to 2% in each company seems crazy, I couldn’t possible know 50 companies as well as I could know 6, and once I got to that level of diversification I may as well just buy an index fund, and go to Disneyland.



If there is one thing I've learnt over the years is there is no sure thing in the markets. Even the most researched investment that looks super solid and nothing could go wrong could disappear in a very short time. When things go sour, companies can spiral down quickly. Equity/Share price built up through decades could vanish almost overnight. I would never put 50% of my capital into a single stock.

1-2% is ideal but if you are starting small this may be hard to achieve. The minimum parcel of $500 required to buy on the ASX could easily mean you are risking more than 2%. So in this case it could be stretched to around 5% if you have tested and paper traded to prove your methodology.


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## StockyGuy (11 May 2019)

Thank you all, thread has ticked along nicely

It might be my bias/perspective or poor terminology, but risk per trade not about how much of your capital you put on a trade, it's a about how much you risk.

For example if I have 100% of my capital in one stock, my risk is still only 2% IF my stop loss is set to sell at the price that would deplete my total by 2%.

With buy and hold then yes it is possible you could end up with shares worth zero - so that's 100% risk if you put it all in one stock.

VC, would you ever sell based purely on a bad, sudden, drop, or would strong fundamentals always keep you in the position?


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## aus_trader (11 May 2019)

StockyGuy said:


> Thank you all, thread has ticked along nicely
> 
> It might be my bias/perspective or poor terminology, but risk per trade not about how much of your capital you put on a trade, it's a about how much you risk.
> 
> ...



That is a big illusion you can get yourself into thinking only 2% is at risk due to a Stop Loss !

If you put your entire account (100%) into 1 stock then you are taking a huge risk. Although the chance of a good company going bankrupt overnight (Lose your entire investing capital scenario) is low, theoretically it can happen and occasionally it does. Market doesn't care you had a Stop Loss in the stock that never got executed when the company suspended trading and called in the Voluntary Administrators. Once this happens it'll be lucky if you get 10c in the dollar of money invested back and that's usually after years of waiting for the Administrators to pull apart and 'garage sale' off company assets and pay off all the creditors first before they check if there is any crumbs left in the pan to give back to the shareholders.


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## StockyGuy (11 May 2019)

aus_trader said:


> That is a big illusion you can get yourself into thinking only 2% is at risk due to a Stop Loss !
> 
> If you put your entire account (100%) into 1 stock then you are taking a huge risk. Although the chance of a good company going bankrupt overnight (Lose your entire investing capital scenario) is low, theoretically it can happen and occasionally it does. Market doesn't care you had a Stop Loss in the stock that never got executed when the company suspended trading and called in the Voluntary Administrators.




Yes, good point.  Maybe the CFD guaranteed stop loss would protect you more, but yes a huge gap, or indeed trading halt preceding the administrators coming in, will make you glad your position only comprised say 5-10% of capital.


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## aus_trader (11 May 2019)

StockyGuy said:


> Yes, good point.  Maybe the CFD guaranteed stop loss would protect you more, but yes a huge gap, or indeed trading halt preceding the administrators coming in, will make you glad your position only comprised say 5-10% of capital.



Absolutely, mate we work too hard for earning money so don't want to gamble your entire account on one stock even if you think you've found the winner of the century.

Even a first time stock investor/trader should at least save up around $6000 before putting on a single trade I reckon. With $6000, a newbie investor can keep $1000 for trading costs for brokerage and for any data subscription costs and the other $5000 can buy positions in 10 companies of $500 equal size. That way if 1 company is wound up (a 10% loss), the account is not killed. Yes a 10% hit hurts but the other 9 positions could go up and make up for the loss. At least the account will survive to fight another day...


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## willoneau (11 May 2019)

I was with BBY once, along time ago in a distant galaxy.


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## aus_trader (11 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> I was with BBY once, along time ago in a distant galaxy.



I have also had the misfortune of holding the bag when a few collapsed over the last decade. These include Bandana Energy(BND), a law firm ILH Grp(IAW), Silver miner Cobar Consolidated(CCU) and Ceramic Fuel Cells(CFU). CFU still exists after de-listing apparently as a private entity since I get letters in the mail every now and then for voting in AGM etc but my stake is probably worthless now).


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## willoneau (11 May 2019)

bby was a futures brokerage firm I traded with


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## aus_trader (11 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> bby was a futures brokerage firm I traded with



Oh, I see. Found some info on them and when they went into Administration:


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## tech/a (11 May 2019)

My answer to this is as little as possible 

The key word is Trade
The word missing is Management.

Sound trade management will minimise risk per trade.

Poor trade management will guarantee the initial risk taken.


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## IFocus (11 May 2019)

SG look up Risk to Ruin to get your head around the number of losses at different % to wipe out your account or permanently damage you mentally.

Also worthy of working out the probability of successive straight losses.

If you can get you head around it you will then perhaps get another piece in the risk management aspect  

Been 15-20 years since I did all this cannot remember the numbers others here might can you Tech?


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## StockyGuy (11 May 2019)

aus_trader said:


> I have also had the misfortune of holding the bag when a few collapsed over the last decade. These include Bandana Energy(BND), a law firm ILH Grp(IAW), Silver miner Cobar Consolidated(CCU) and Ceramic Fuel Cells(CFU). CFU still exists after de-listing apparently as a private entity since I get letters in the mail every now and then for voting in AGM etc but my stake is probably worthless now).




LOL I bought Arasor yonks ago - it delisted and changed name etc.  I now get letters like that.  They were gonna bring out laser TVs bwahahahaha.


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## tech/a (11 May 2019)

https://www.therealistictrader.com/risk-calculator/

Try this


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## Value Collector (13 May 2019)

aus_trader said:


> If there is one thing I've learnt over the years is there is no sure thing in the markets. Even the most researched investment that looks super solid and nothing could go wrong could disappear in a very short time. When things go sour, companies can spiral down quickly. Equity/Share price built up through decades could vanish almost overnight. I would never put 50% of my capital into a single stock.
> 
> 1-2% is ideal but if you are starting small this may be hard to achieve. The minimum parcel of $500 required to buy on the ASX could easily mean you are risking more than 2%. So in this case it could be stretched to around 5% if you have tested and paper traded to prove your methodology.




If I stuck to 1-2%, I would still be working for the man, instead I am the man, in my 30’s currently retired.


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## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Value Collector said:


> If I stuck to 1-2%, I would still be working for the man, instead I am the man, in my 30’s currently retired.



Hi Value Collector, would you be willing to share how that happened?


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## Value Collector (13 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Hi Value Collector, would you be willing to share how that happened?




I have shared it already, I think it is in the education of an investor thread .


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## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I have shared it already, I think it is in the education of an investor thread .



Thanx Value Collector I look forward to reading it.
Do you have a link?


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## Joe Blow (14 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Do you have a link?




This is the thread that Value Collector was referring to.


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## willoneau (14 May 2019)

thanx Joe, it was strange that when I went through his posts I couldn't find any reference to it.


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## willoneau (14 May 2019)

Wow that took me 3 hours to read.


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## tech/a (14 May 2019)

Value Collector said:


> If I stuck to 1-2%, I would still be working for the man, instead I am the man, in my 30’s currently retired.




I hope you get a job soon VC


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## willy1111 (14 May 2019)

Value Collector said:


> If I stuck to 1-2%, I would still be working for the man, instead I am the man, in my 30’s currently retired.




I thought you were a business owner  you're just not involved in running them.

Or you could also be a Portfolio Manager for a private investor.

How do you normally respond when asked what you do when you meet new people?


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## Value Collector (14 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> I hope you get a job soon VC



Haha, I don’t


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## Value Collector (14 May 2019)

willy1111 said:


> I thought you were a business owner  you're just not involved in running them.
> 
> Or you could also be a Portfolio Manager for a private investor.
> 
> How do you normally respond when asked what you do when you meet new people?




If asked what I do for work, I just say I am an investor, if asked where I work, I just say I work from home.

I pretty much don’t use the work retired, it generally gets a negative reaction, but yeah I have in affect retired from the work force, and no longer own any business directly, I just manage my Investment portfolio.


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## Value Collector (14 May 2019)

Value Collector said:


> If asked what I do for work, I just say I am an investor, if asked where I work, I just say I work from home.
> 
> I pretty much don’t use the work retired, it generally gets a negative reaction, but yeah I have in affect retired from the work force, and no longer own any business directly, I just manage my Investment portfolio.




I meant to say “I pretty much don’t use the word retired”


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## aus_trader (14 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> I hope you get a job soon VC



Yeah man, we are still doing the 9 to 5'ish grind !

Although I am building up a side business to relieve myself of the grind eventually...


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## tech/a (14 May 2019)

*Interesting.
*
Trading is a side "Business" for me
Making around a good average wage a year for my discretionary stuff
And better than Market for my Super.
Which represents a very small % of total income.

I'm a great one for Various income streams I didn't realize when I was younger how
important that decision would be as I became ancient!
Oh and Being my own boss meant I always have a job.

I interview people for my own company and unfortunately its the younger
people who generally get the position. I would hate to be looking for a job
at 50 and over!


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## barney (14 May 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I am not a trader, I take *longer term investment positions.*
> 
> But in general I don’t want to be in more than 10 companies, and I *may have 50% or more in my favorite one*.




Interestingly I am very similar …… and I trade "Specs"  … Works for me … till it doesn't

Apart from all the technical/psycho/fundamental mumbo jumbo ….  Traders need to find their comfort zone, and work out how THEY should trade.

Basically, everyone is different …. but scarily similar ….. 

If you fail … admit it …. and work out why you failed … then, most times, do the opposite


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## Value Collector (14 May 2019)

I think Buffett explains the diversification issue perfectly in this short video.


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## Value Collector (14 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> i think investing is a little different , when you say you can have 50% in one company do you buy with one order or scale in?
> if you do scale in what % would be your first position?




I generally value the company, eg work out what a rational price to pay for each share is, and then I design an operation involving direct purchases and selling put option etc to  it into it at or below what I consider the fair price to be.

————

For example, if I thought a certain company was worth $7.50 a share and it was trading below that price, I would probably buy some immediately, while also selling some put options at a much lower price.

Or, if the share was trading above fair value I might just sell some puts to generate some income while I wait for the price to drop. 

Sometimes my operations can last many years, eg for about 7 years I have been selling puts against fmg, accumulating shares when my puts went deep in the money, and rolling them or selling more puts if they went at the money or expired worthless.

———-

I can’t possibly know 50 different companies, but I can know a few, and I follow those few very closely, and develop very targeted operations around them, with the aim of purchasing them and generating income I can use to purchase them.


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## aus_trader (15 May 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I generally value the company, eg work out what a rational price to pay for each share is, and then I design an operation involving direct purchases and selling put option etc to  it into it at or below what I consider the fair price to be.
> 
> ————
> 
> ...



My only worry is what if the company crashes in a big way? Those puts will still be assigned to you right? Then you'll have to buy it at the much higher assigned price.


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## Zaxon (15 May 2019)

aus_trader said:


> My only worry is what if the company crashes in a big way? Those puts will still be assigned to you right? Then you'll have to buy it at the much higher assigned price.



He chooses a deliberately low strike price.


Value Collector said:


> For example, if I thought a certain company was worth $7.50 a share and it was trading below that price, I would probably buy some immediately, while also selling some put options at a much lower price.



So XYZ is trading at $10.  He sells puts at $7.  It does mean he has to keep the cash though, since he may be forced to buy them.


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## Value Collector (15 May 2019)

aus_trader said:


> My only worry is what if the company crashes in a big way? Those puts will still be assigned to you right? Then you'll have to buy it at the much higher assigned price.




Yes, but I would be buying the shares at a cheaper than than if I had just purchased them outright at the start.

For example, let’s say we both think CBA is worth $72 per share.

So you purchase 1000 shares costing you $72,000.

Where as I might agree with you that they are worth $72, but rather than buy the stock as you did, I might instead sell a $70 put option for $1.50, expiring in 3 months.

So I end up keeping my $72,000 in the bank earning 4.90% interest + I collect $1500 in put option premium + if I do have to buy the shares I get them $2000 cheaper than you did.

So my strategy is actually a lower risk strategy than buying the shares outright upfront.

You would make more money if the shares skyrocketed, but I would make more money if the market were down or flat, so the put option strategy is a bit more conservative.


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## Value Collector (15 May 2019)

Zaxon said:


> He chooses a deliberately low strike price.
> 
> So XYZ is trading at $10.  He sells puts at $7.  It does mean he has to keep the cash though, since he may be forced to buy them.




You may not even have to buy them even if the option does go in the money a bit, you can generally roll the option out to a longer time frame and collect another premium.

For example.

Let’s say I sold the $7.00 put for $0.50, and near expiry the share has dropped to $6.75

Because there is little time left the option will probably be selling for around $0.30.

I can by the option back for $0.30 and then sell a new longer dated $7 option, for maybe $0.75 cents.

So I end up with the same exposure, but have just extended the time and collected another $0.45 cents (75 -30)


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## aus_trader (16 May 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Yes, but I would be buying the shares at a cheaper than than if I had just purchased them outright at the start.
> 
> For example, let’s say we both think CBA is worth $72 per share.
> 
> ...




So VC, do you employ this type of strategy in all types of markets? e.g. Bull, Bear, Flat? Or do you try to avoid writing naked puts in bear markets once the direction is clear ? Of course no one can predict if the market crashes suddenly out of the blue.


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## HelloU (16 May 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Yes, but I would be buying the shares at a cheaper than than if I had just purchased them outright at the start.
> 
> For example, let’s say we both think CBA is worth $72 per share.
> 
> ...



OT
is that 4.9% a made up thing for the example, or does it exist?


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## Value Collector (16 May 2019)

aus_trader said:


> So VC, do you employ this type of strategy in all types of markets? e.g. Bull, Bear, Flat? Or do you try to avoid writing naked puts in bear markets once the direction is clear ? Of course no one can predict if the market crashes suddenly out of the blue.




I don’t pay attention to whether the market is bull or bear, I base it on my valuation of he underlying company.

If valuations went to high, and I couldn’t get decent premiums at strikes I was comfortable with I would cease writing puts, like wise I would continue writing puts if the valuation was good, even if it was a technical bear market


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## Value Collector (16 May 2019)

HelloU said:


> OT
> is that 4.9% a made up thing for the example, or does it exist?




I can earn 4.9% on my money by putting it in my offset account linked to my investment property loan, it’s possible to significantly offset the interest I get charged doing this.

Also I can earn over 6.5% on the rate setter platform.


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## tech/a (16 May 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I don’t pay attention to whether the market is bull or bear, I base it on my valuation of he underlying company.
> 
> If valuations went to high, and I couldn’t get decent premiums at strikes I was comfortable with I would cease writing puts, like wise I would continue writing puts if the valuation was good, even if it was a technical bear market




Would you write that same put if the company had been falling for X periods IE weeks to Months?


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## Value Collector (16 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Would you write that same put if the company had been falling for X periods IE weeks to Months?



If I am confident in the company yes.

I did that on Fmg, and so far have made nearly $1 million in profit.

Yesterday’s dividend announcement is worth $118,200 to me, and the only reason I have that many FMG shares is because I have been writing puts against it for about 5 years, and had some of my positions exercised along the way.

I have funded almost my entire fmg position by using options premiums I have collected to purchase the few contracts that get exercised every now and then.


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## tech/a (16 May 2019)

Now that is impressive.

So getting to know a company intimately makes a lot of sense.
So your *not* a believer in spreading risk over a portfolio of say 10-40 stocks

I actually remember a guy years ago who write Puts on the FTSE for his
Super. He was an English guy and at the time he said it was like shelling peas!


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## Value Collector (16 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> Now that is impressive.
> 
> So getting to know a company intimately makes a lot of sense.
> So your *not* a believer in spreading risk over a portfolio of say 10-40 stocks
> ...




As I said above, I think a portfolio of 6 or 7 shares with about to 50% in my favorite is enough diversification for me.

But, for 99% of the population I would recommend extreme diversification , eg something like an index fund.

—-

Actually including dividends my fmg position is well over $1 million in profit.


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## IFocus (16 May 2019)

Thats impressive VC not many around with that sort of record well done.

Not so much the numbers but the strategy / reasoning, of course always nice to get the returns


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## aus_trader (16 May 2019)

Value Collector said:


> As I said above, I think a portfolio of 6 or 7 shares with about to 50% in my favorite is enough diversification for me.
> 
> But, for 99% of the population I would recommend extreme diversification , eg something like an index fund.
> 
> ...



It takes someone with nerves of steel to pull off something like that. I think you are truly an exception (legendary even) because many of the naked put sellers I have known have been burnt beyond recovery. That's a small % who do admit, the rest are too shameful to admit what they've done with their money.

I respectfully agree, that most people may be better to stick to an index fund for example because things can go wrong even with the best of the best when it comes to individual companies.


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## Value Collector (16 May 2019)

aus_trader said:


> It takes someone with nerves of steel to pull off something like that. I think you are truly an exception (legendary even) because many of the naked put sellers I have known have been burnt beyond recovery. That's a small % who do admit, the rest are too shameful to admit what they've done with their money.
> 
> I respectfully agree, that most people may be better to stick to an index fund for example because things can go wrong even with the best of the best when it comes to individual companies.




I think the most important this is to really have the skills to value the company and be sure that your entry price is well below its fair value based on likely long term economics of the business.

Then make sure you don’t over extend yourself, and make sure you have the resources available to carry the trade through to the end.

I had a large holding of other shares I could use as collateral, which meant I didn’t have to put up cash margins.

I also set up a $500k margin loan ready to fund any large purchases I had to make in excess of the premiums I collected.

I did end up having to use the margin loan, but the dividends from the shares and the continuing flow of premiums paid that down steadily.


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## aus_trader (16 May 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Then make sure you don’t over extend yourself, and make sure you have the resources available to carry the trade through to the end.



I think this is what you have done well. It is easy to get carried away collecting premiums and a lot of the people who didn't succeed didn't understand it or take it into account. I guess for them it would have been easy to get greedy writing larger and larger numbers of contracts when it felt like free money rolling in.


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## Value Collector (17 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> Wow that took me 3 hours to read.




What do you think about that thread, All up I think it is a pretty good thread.


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## willoneau (18 May 2019)

yes i enjoyed it , gave me an insight into what you do and need to know


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## Frankieplus (28 May 2019)

In regards to the 1% thing, is that meant to be calculated from your starting capital all the time or from your cash account balance?

let's say you start your trading account with $30k and then after a few weeks have a few trades going and your cash account now has $10k in it. 

For your next trade do you calculate 1% of 30k ongoing still? Or do you calculate 1% of the $10k in your cash account?


-Frank


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## tech/a (28 May 2019)

From Trading Capital--total
So $300 a trade.


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## willoneau (28 May 2019)

Frankieplus said:


> In regards to the 1% thing, is that meant to be calculated from your starting capital all the time or from your cash account balance?
> 
> let's say you start your trading account with $30k and then after a few weeks have a few trades going and your cash account now has $10k in it.
> 
> ...



you only want to risk 1% of what you have not what you had. Can also work the other way as your capital grows, I use closed positions to calculate my 1%
Was thinking your capital fell to $10 000 (losses) not used to open positions.


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## aus_trader (28 May 2019)

tech/a said:


> From Trading Capital--total
> So $300 a trade.



Good question Frankieplus and good answers willoneau and tech/a.

If I could add to that, you should always work out the risk per trade and position size at the start of trading from the starting capital. For example in your case let's say you are going to risk 1% i.e. $300 per trade on your $30k pot. You can put 10 positions at $3000 each and if any position goes against you by 10% cut it off manually or using a 'Stop Loss'. In that case 10% of a $3000 position is $300 or 1% of your starting capital.


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## willoneau (28 May 2019)

aus_trader said:


> Good question Frankieplus and good answers willoneau and tech/a.
> 
> If I could add to that, you should always work out the risk per trade and position size at the start of trading from the starting capital. For example in your case let's say you are going to risk 1% i.e. $300 per trade on your $30k pot. You can put 10 positions at $3000 each and if any position goes against you by 10% cut it off manually or using a 'Stop Loss'. In that case 10% of a $3000 position is $300 or 1% of your starting capital.



I think your risk determines position size which can possibly be more or less than $3000
using and flat 10% stop may not be appropriate depending on perceived support and resistance.


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## aus_trader (28 May 2019)

willoneau said:


> I think your risk determines position size which can possibly be more or less than $3000
> using and flat 10% stop may not be appropriate depending on perceived support and resistance.



Yes willoneau is right on the money, my explanation was a simplistic explanation of how to divide up your capital for a 1% risk per trade.


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## Zaxon (28 May 2019)

1% risk per share still leaves you at 10% (etc) total portfolio heat should the market crash and all your shares drop. I know there are some people who won't take a new position until existing ones have break even stops in place.  This reduces your total exposure in a crash.  I don't operate this way.  But for those who are more risk averse, it can be an extra layer of protection.


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## willoneau (28 May 2019)

How you determine the risk also has a lot to do with the % you wish to allocate and what risk profile you personally have.
Slippage and delisting are also factors we should include when determining risk, usually by some % of probability of happening.


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## Bernfeld (4 December 2019)

The maximum percentage of risk that I use is 5%. Over the years, this is the best value for me. When I used 1-2%, the profit was 50% less. The greater the risk, the greater the profit and vice versa. But, of course, the risk should be limited.


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## tech/a (5 December 2019)

Bernfeld said:


> The greater the risk, the greater the profit and vice versa.




Yes I agree but the risk doesn't have to increase.
When Trading Futures I often have my full account at risk.

Currently with shares I have 2 positions with 85% of my account committed.

If your portfolio trading then a % or a fixed $ amount is best.
But as I have explained further you can mitigate the initial risk 
very quickly.


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## willoneau (5 December 2019)

tech/a said:


> Yes I agree but the risk doesn't have to increase.
> When Trading Futures I often have my full account at risk.
> 
> Currently with shares I have 2 positions with 85% of my account committed.
> ...



Hi tech/a , do you build those two positions ?


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## tech/a (5 December 2019)

One yes the other I really liked.


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