# CWP - Cedar Woods Properties



## piggybank (1 January 2014)




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## fanger (22 February 2015)

Just picked this stock up hoping it can get out of its down trend.


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## tech/a (22 February 2015)

Technically its a punt.
Its not a bad trade but the stock is showing only a little
interest in turning up.
It has a downside potential of $3.50 ish.
Any break below the triangle should see a stop out of the trade.


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## Gordon7 (22 February 2015)

fanger said:


> Just picked this stock up hoping it can get out of its down trend.




Couldn't resist replying to this as it perfectly illustrates my particular method of analysis of how stocks on the ASX move. See notes on chart.
Personally, I would wait for more sideways action (weeks to months) and then maybe buy with a break above $6.00 (depending on price and volume action at the time).

P.S. I'm not sure whether this purchase was part a defined strategy whether it be fundamental and/or technical based, but when I see the word 'hope' and nothing else it implies no strategy, just guesswork and that can be a recipe for disaster.


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## Ann (22 February 2015)

Gordon7 said:


> Couldn't resist replying to this as it perfectly illustrates my particular method of analysis of how stocks on the ASX move. See notes on chart.
> Personally, I would wait for more sideways action (weeks to months) and then maybe buy with a break above $6.00 (depending on price and volume action at the time).
> 
> P.S. I'm not sure whether this purchase was part a defined strategy whether it be fundamental and/or technical based, but when I see the word 'hope' and nothing else it implies no strategy, just guesswork and that can be a recipe for disaster.





Gordon7, may I compliment you on a beautifully drawn chart with excellent chart comments! 

Cheers Ann


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## skc (23 February 2015)

Reporting Wednesday... trade the break >$6.


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## fanger (23 February 2015)

I've only taken a half position waiting for the report to come out, if its not so hot I'm out


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## tech/a (23 February 2015)

fanger said:


> I've only taken a half position waiting for the report to come out, if its not so hot I'm out




Of course.


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## fanger (26 February 2015)

skc said:


> Reporting Wednesday... trade the break >$6.




broke $6 after report


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## ukulele (14 September 2015)

It broke 6 bucks on the report in Feb, then basically ever since then has been stuck in a downtrend. The next report released 26 august 15 seemed ok to me, actually quite good. 

Is there something I missed on the report? It was a record profit, albeit on less revenue. Dividend was up. Balance sheet is strong. Pre Sales for the next year is up. 

On yield alone this is hitting double digits if you include franking credits, assuming the next dividend doesn't decrease. 

It does however look to be bottoming with the recent swing lows in June and August. I'd want to at least see it clear 5 bucks on volume. I might take a long/medium term punt on this just for the yield.


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## fanger (14 September 2015)

I thought it reported well but for some reason its on the nose. I'm still holding at higher prices.


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## ukulele (15 September 2015)

I also thought the report looked good with a decent outlook too. Other building related stocks have done well recently; I just don't get why the market is punishing this stock so much. Those are the breaks I suppose. 

I'll keep watching for basing activity. I still would like it to clear 5 bucks on volume, it does seem like there is strong resistance at 5.50.


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## ukulele (25 January 2016)

This one is still on the watchlist as I think its a good company, it looks like the resistance at 5.5 was too much and has been in a down trend since my last post. Lucky I did not take that punt...

Again looks to be basing technically with resistance at 4.30. Perhaps a break of the recent swing high @ 4.33 on nice volume will get me interested again. Perhaps it is basing now as its due to report late Feb.


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## fanger (23 February 2016)

Was there something I missed in the report it looked good to me.
NPAT up 100%
EPS up 93%
Revenue flat

NAT $3.69

Thoughts?


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## finicky (13 March 2016)

I'm holding from about $4, but bought 4 years ago. It has given back all its gain, but paid good dividends. 

I take a bit of encouragement that Cedarwoods took a hell of a share price hit during the GFC but continued to pay a reduced dividend out of lower earnings and then recovered quickly - if 2 years is quick for your speed. The hit in the GFC was bigger than this one in relative terms (from $6 to $1)

My guess, and its only a hesitant guess, is that some are suspecting trouble ahead for residential housing, and remembering that CWP has significant investments in QLD and WA with some sensitivity to resources.

Its making a low here but wouldn't guess yet whether a bottom. Still cum a 12c ff dividend that goes ex 30 Mar
Director bought $160k of shares @4.03 on market, but thats not a big amount for him.

I will be holding, while accepting the possibility of a lower sp. I like the chances of the monthly chart so far, but lack the fundamental conviction to buy more.


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## pixel (13 March 2016)

For a trading stock, $4 4 years ago left a lot of potential profit on the table.
As a dividend-paying investment however, it averaged about 10% yield over the last 5 years, grossed up by franking credits. That's the same range as holding TLS for $4 cost base.




The weekly chart has it in a down trend for almost 2 years; that may or may not reverse soon. During the slide, we can observe some buying support in the lead-up to each half-yearly ex-div. 




While I don't hold it directly in my portfolio, it is part of one of my investment funds. No problem.


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## ukulele (16 March 2016)

with the break above 4.50 would you say the weekly down trend has been broken? We've had a higher low and now a higher high.

I've been watching this stock, basically as a yield play but I wanted some support before entering. It is starting to look a lot better.


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## pixel (16 March 2016)

ukulele said:


> with the break above 4.50 would you say the weekly down trend has been broken? We've had a higher low and now a higher high.
> 
> I've been watching this stock, basically as a yield play but I wanted some support before entering. It is starting to look a lot better.




Higher Low, Higher High - and the falling trendline has been broken.
That satisfies most people's criteria for a break of trend and would justify a cautious entry.
Obviously, you have to apply your own risk profile, giving you target, stop loss level, and position size.

As I mentioned before: I have CWP in an investment fund; additional exposure would go against my aim of maintaining a  diversified portfolio.


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## ukulele (28 April 2016)

Seems like last week I was talking bullish CWP. This thing cannot seem to keep its momentum post dividend.


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## finicky (21 September 2020)

Higher high, higher low
What bargain back in  March, didn't add myself. Quality r/e developer. Good divvy payer

Held


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## finicky (17 February 2021)

Deceptively great looking H1 result for Cedar Woods as pcp H1 last year was impacted by Covid delays in settlement. This half has benefited from some of those delays coming through, government stimulus and a few development stages being settled. The full year 2021 NPAT result that they are guiding for is not that great at $29m, considering that their record NPAT was over $48m in FY19. Still a very sound property developer though that I never regret holding.


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## finicky (2 March 2021)

12 month high today - well run conservative property developer to keep on a crash watchlist imo.

Held 

Daily


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## Dona Ferentes (24 April 2021)

*Cedar Woods* has one of the largest development pipelines, with 9000+ lots across 30 projects in VIC, WA, SA, and QLD.  The group  focuses on residential land and townhouses across different price  points, with the majority of their products eligible for government  grants.  The key drivers include high presale at $380m providing solid  visibility for earnings recovery to continue into FY22/23, coupled with a  strong balance sheet to take advantage of pipeline acquisitions to  support ongoing growth.



> Every newspaper headline points to a housing boom: with clearance  rates of over 80% in most capital cities, and price increases of +8%  since the September trough, making it the strongest recovery in 33 years   (according to CoreLogic). So what had contributed to this turnaround (and even surge) in the residential market?




*Historically low-interest rates*, with RBA forward guidance that rates are unlikely to rise until at least 2024
*Low mortgage rates*, including 2 to 3 year fixed mortgage rates below 2%, making it cheaper to buy than rent in some regional areas
*Higher savings rates* due to COVID spending restrictions provided larger deposits available for housing purchases
*FOMO* – fear of missing out, heightened by low listings

additionally, the work-from-home thematic has increased the desire for more space, and  less reliance to be close to the workplace is driving demand for detached housing, particularly outside major cities.


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## finicky (6 December 2021)

Chart - expecting further decline. 
Key level of $6 broken, maybe down to 4.50? Maybe down to the Wuhan low? Trading at book value. Would be readying to buy at a lower price for the franked yield if not for my macro forebodings.

2 Year Daily


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## divs4ever (6 December 2021)

yes i keep on looking at this one at the wrong ( buying ) moments 

 thanks for the reminder i  should probably calculate a 'dream' buying price 

 cheers


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## finicky (14 April 2022)

I was looking at CWP just yesterday among a few other prospects to tack on some. Decided property development too iffy with some going broke in W.A at the expense of pre-paid buyers, sub-contractors and employees. Also of course I am looking ahead to a general asset bust some time.

Q3 report today and guidance for *FY22* of NPAT *$35m* (*FY21 $33m*)
Lots of pre-sales encourage them to guide to a significantly stronger FY23.
It's still trading at slightly less than book value and has a median ROE of about 9 over the last 4 years.
Today's rise has chewed up about two HY dividends and has gone ex for the H1 div but I expect yield for this year to be about 5.6% ff on today's higher share price. 

Held


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## finicky (24 August 2022)

Strange chart development recently. Rising on receding volume. Reports tomorrow.
Held

*weekly*


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## divs4ever (24 August 2022)

i hold a few as well ( bought in  March 2022 )

 i was hoping to average down   the toehold i have

 that plan is going so well currently  ( not down enough to tempt me to add )

 mind you if the property scene descends into chaos  , this will be a hard one to pick  ( i was hoping they would stay more focused on West Australia )


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## finicky (25 August 2022)

Looks ok. Apparently sales have weakened in last months of fy22 but that's in the context of higher earnings guidance for fy23. Labour constraints easing (more builder enquiries for work). Still able to grow earnings in fy22 against higher costs. Yield of 6% ff against yesterday's close (full year div 27.5c)

Held


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## finicky (19 October 2022)

Have been wondering whether this stock has found a firm footing. It's got the usual litany of current problems I guess: higher mortgage rates, higher inputs energy and labour costs, discouraged buyers but it's got pretty cheap by past performance and has got near to testing the June low.
The recent chart closely resembles Fletcher Building (FBU) - see thumbed chart at bottom.
Fletcher buiding is a contrarian pick publicized by 'Allan Gray Australia Equity' in an exhausting article on Livewire.

Held
Not Adding

Cedar Woods





Fletcher Building


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## divs4ever (19 October 2022)

finicky said:


> Have been wondering whether this stock has found a firm footing. It's got the usual litany of current problems I guess: higher mortgage rates, higher inputs energy and labour costs, discouraged buyers but it's got pretty cheap by past performance and has got near to testing the June low.
> The recent chart closely resembles Fletcher Building (FBU) - see thumbed chart at bottom.
> Fletcher buiding is a contrarian pick publicized by 'Allan Gray Australia Equity' in an exhausting article on Livewire.
> 
> ...



 i hold a few FBU ( more than CWP )   i was trying to play regions ( of investments ) here 

 CWP  was more in WA  which has a solid   commodity/export base  , and PLENTY of room for new workers/settlers  , and FBU more East Coast/NZ bias  , plenty of opportunity for a rout/bloodbath ( and cheap buying points )

 i suspect all the credit/debt excesses will come back to bite eventually  ( but have no clue exactly when )

 now maybe CWP has tweaked the strategy again  but it was at one stage  building smaller malls/regional shopping centres as well ( i would suspect IN their bigger land developments )

 the property/REIT sector  has plenty of pain due and loves it's gearing  , so please be careful 

 but i love my bargains  ( and am willing to risk cuts and burns to grab some )


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## finicky (19 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> the property/REIT sector has plenty of pain due and loves it's gearing , so please be careful



Yes a lot of negatives that are impossible for me to weigh up. One I didn't mention that has apparently caught out even conservative Cedar Woods is pre-selling units in a project where all the costs have rapidly risen and are not accounted for in the pre-sale price.
But on the other side of the ledger there is still high immigration (unfortunately) and a housing shortage.
But when tempted I remind myself that CWP was hit very hard in the GFC and got down 1 dollar.

Held


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## divs4ever (19 October 2022)

i wasn't in the market until very late 2010 , so would be still wringing my hands if i had ignored CWP around $1 

 property/REIT is a very tricky game , i have an eye for location  ( and land  value long term ) but  , construction , staff and dealing with  banks  , nope not my strengths 

 that was why i wasn't sweating Evergrande  , the only  difference to the pre-sale and 'off-the-plan ' strategy was it was in China   ( where the execution of senior management  WAS an option on the table )

 unless we go back to aboriginal-style ( living in temporary bark shelters  ) we will always have these property cycles ( or one horrific collection of slums )


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