# TPG - TPG Telecom



## Joe Blow (11 December 2009)

TPG Telecom (TPM) was previously known as SP Telemedia (SOT).

For previous discussion of this company please see the SOT thread, which can be found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1382


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## Jako (10 March 2010)

I have recently taken a small position in this stock.

When the Cap Raising (to help finance the takeover of PWK )was announced they fell below the CR price so I took advantage of that and bought in.

They have been included into the ASX300 announced this week.

Good support in the last few days up from $1.40ish to $1.70 today.

May have further support after friday, when Pipeworks shareholders vote.

Hope it goes the right way..............

cheers.


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## Jako (12 March 2010)

Well the vote went OK, 94% voted for the buyout.

Now trading at around $1.95 or so, up 10+%

Will be have to see if they can hold the jump in price.

Maybe the entry into the ASX300 will keep the instos interested.

I tried putting both balance sheets together ( I know this can be misleading, but I wanted to see how it would look ) & came up with a price of $1.87 for this year ended, & $2.10 for first half next year.

This calculation could be way out as I dont know what other costs of bringing both companys together will be, or any savings they may make.

anyway I'll keep watching.

cheers


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## Staggerlee (26 July 2010)

I bought a very small amount of tpm when they were much cheaper, not knowing much about stocks i based my purchase on the fact that i like the company. Quality products at a decent price.
Since then i have bought more at a much higher price, wiping out my profit in the proccess.
I have been studying since i first purchased any and punching through these forums like theirs no tomorrow and now that i know a little more, im a little worried about this company.
Basically what i would like to ask is, what are your thoughts on tpg in the longterm?


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## Garpal Gumnut (28 August 2010)

Staggerlee said:


> I bought a very small amount of tpm when they were much cheaper, not knowing much about stocks i based my purchase on the fact that i like the company. Quality products at a decent price.
> Since then i have bought more at a much higher price, wiping out my profit in the proccess.
> I have been studying since i first purchased any and punching through these forums like theirs no tomorrow and now that i know a little more, im a little worried about this company.
> Basically what i would like to ask is, what are your thoughts on tpg in the longterm?




It seems to get support between 1.40 and 1.50, which many folk must feel is good value, at the 50% fibonnaci level from its lows to highs.

Its generally in a downtrend though and presently looks a bit like a dog.

Having said that, it has bounced last week on some volume again at about 1.50/60. this occured close to the 38.2% fibonnaci retracement level. 

Its also in a downward channel and until it breaks as I said above sideways or up out of this channel it may fall again.

It would be nice to see it move sideways for a while and then jump on an upward break. It does look as if it is in a downtrend though on the attached chart.

gg


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## Jako (29 August 2010)

TPM will shortly be included in the ASX200, with LGL being removed.

This may account for the rise in price over the last week or so.


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## voigtstr (21 September 2010)

Why such a dip today? The company announcment was positive wasnt it?
Or did I missread something?


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## goosmurf (21 September 2010)

EPS 7.6c, share price today $1.73, P/E of over 22 is pretty nuts compared to industry peers.

I've long been interested in TPG's business but have never seen a time when its price was reasonable against its earnings.


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## voigtstr (21 September 2010)

So is this the correction it had to have? is the stock price actually a reaction to the numbers in the announcment?


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## rcm617 (21 September 2010)

voigtstr said:


> So is this the correction it had to have? is the stock price actually a reaction to the numbers in the announcment?




The numbers are within their earnings guidance, however they are a bit lower than some broker predictions, hence the drop.


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## polska (21 September 2010)

i believe this is an overreaction, i'm think i am going to buy some of these, TPG is a great company, offering great prices, they are however gaining customers, but not too much more revenue due to these ultra competitive prices


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## Jako (22 September 2010)

There are some concerns within the market that a Price War is on between all the Telco & Internet suppliers.

Telstra have said it is their aim to grow market share & have begun advertising, cut price plans. This is a major change in Telstra's strategy, where they have previously prefered to go after the Top end of the market.

The worry is that margins will be squeezed & profitability will be compromised.

Time will tell.....

cheers


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## polska (22 September 2010)

i like tpg as a company, haven't bought it yet, but if they hit the <1.50 mark i will gladly take a punt, they surged only a few weeks ago to 2.00, they are subscribing more customers faster than any other providers


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## matty77 (20 July 2011)

I guess the question is:

1. Are the customers they are subscribing long term AND do they pay their bills? We all know in the Telco industry its easier to get customers, but its a different thing to get good paying customers.

2. How will the NBN benifit or hinder TPG, is it going to help them or not?


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## prawn_86 (4 June 2012)

Having a major ****fight with TPG at the moment.

Before i left for my trip i changed over to an email only account. Now i am back i wanted to go with them again but they say that i cant use my old (still active) TPG email and will need to pay a yearly fee to keep that email active. I asked them to waive this fee but even the supervisor wouldn't confirm it.

All their call centres go through to overseas and they never have any notes on their system so have to explain myself each time.

Bascially they are willing to lose out on >$600 pa in exchange for $30pa that it will cost me to keep the email active


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## sinner (4 June 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Having a major ****fight with TPG at the moment.
> 
> Before i left for my trip i changed over to an email only account. Now i am back i wanted to go with them again but they say that i cant use my old (still active) TPG email and will need to pay a yearly fee to keep that email active. I asked them to waive this fee but even the supervisor wouldn't confirm it.
> 
> ...




Yep, I can confirm this is the sort of service you can expect from TPG when you have issues requiring servicedesk support. The quality of their DSL isn't even good compared to other providers.

Switched away and never looked back. Happy with Exetel, iiNet, Internode (all naked DSL) and Optus (FTTN) since then.

Having been a customer, I would never invest in this company.


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## prawn_86 (4 June 2012)

sinner said:


> Yep, I can confirm this is the sort of service you can expect from TPG when you have issues requiring servicedesk support. The quality of their DSL isn't even good compared to other providers.
> 
> Switched away and never looked back. Happy with Exetel, iiNet, Internode (all naked DSL) and Optus (FTTN) since then.
> 
> Having been a customer, I would never invest in this company.




Unfortunately i dont have very heavy usage, so the package they offer is the cheapest (and it obviously shows in their service)


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## prawn_86 (4 June 2012)

Actually just looked at Exetel and they seem quite good. Might go with them instead


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## sinner (4 June 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Unfortunately i dont have very heavy usage, so the package they offer is the cheapest (and it obviously shows in their service)




My usage isn't very high either but as an on-call technical engineer and occasional intraday trader, low latency is very important to me if I need to log into the data-center or want to take some hits in London when I get home. 

One thing I liked a *lot* about iiNet when I was on DSL was that you could actually set your connection type on their website e.g. "I'm a gamer and want low latency" or "I'm a downloader and want high throughput" type options.

ISPs forced "usage" down Australian consumer throats, doesn't apply in most places in the world. So people here think they are paying for "gigabytes"...when I pay, I expect good uninterrupted service at near line latency. Personally, I don't care about gigabytes.



> Actually just looked at Exetel and they seem quite good. Might go with them instead




As a prior customer I am very happy to recommend them for their service, speed and support.


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## timestwo (6 June 2012)

I will second/third etc.. that customer service is not the best. However, if you are looking for a generous download limit for a decent price I think that's where TPG has the upper hand. I've personally never had an issue with them, sometimes it depends on what area you are in and what exchange you are connected to. 

In terms of share price, I've been keeping an eye out on them and they seemed to hover around the 1.3-1.4 mark.


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## Bibimbap (3 August 2012)

Seems to be quite bullish recently.

closing with higher highs every day. 


According to analyst at Your Money Your Call , it's heading past $2.10 at current rate


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## clowboy (21 February 2013)

Any ideas why this has fallen 10% without any news?  inside info of poor results perhaps?


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## rcm617 (21 February 2013)

clowboy said:


> Any ideas why this has fallen 10% without any news?  inside info of poor results perhaps?




Market was expecting them to buy LEI's telecom assetts, however looks like Canadian Teachers Superfund is the likely buyer.
At least Theo doesn't go for these assetts at all costs.


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## clowboy (21 February 2013)

ok, thanks for the info, much apreciated, was there several contenders?  I notice my phone also fell a bit around the same time, however my phone looks more like a regular corection.


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## rcm617 (21 February 2013)

clowboy said:


> ok, thanks for the info, much apreciated, was there several contenders?  I notice my phone also fell a bit around the same time, however my phone looks more like a regular corection.




TPG was the main contender. Not sure about any other contenders.
Article from the SMH here
http://www.smh.com.au/business/tpg-...-move-for-leighton-assets-20130220-2erm7.html


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## tinhat (21 February 2013)

clowboy said:


> Any ideas why this has fallen 10% without any news?  inside info of poor results perhaps?




IMHO because the share price got too high. Profit taking.


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## pavilion103 (12 April 2013)

I noticed huge volume of 3.2M on open this morning.

What's with that?


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## skc (12 April 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> I noticed huge volume of 3.2M on open this morning.
> 
> What's with that?




S1XT just before open actually.


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## pavilion103 (12 April 2013)

Yeh I saw it came up when the price first appeared this morning. What does it mean when a big one like this goes through before open?


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## tech/a (12 April 2013)

skc said:


> S1XT just before open actually.




I've got it as a normal trade at 10.08

Anyway remember large holders need to sell into strength.
I think this is likely the case here.
The next few days will tell.
Just tighten stops.


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## Trembling Hand (12 April 2013)

tech/a said:


> I've got it as a normal trade at 10.08
> 
> Anyway remember large holders need to sell into strength.
> I think this is likely the case here.




If thats one transaction then a large seller sold to a large buyer. How can you take anything from that.


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## Country Lad (12 April 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> What does it mean when a big one like this goes through before open?




Not much in this case.  A broker has crossed a trade between 2 of his clients or between 2 portfolios.  The transaction constitutes 0.3% of the shares on issue.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## tech/a (12 April 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> If thats one transaction then a large seller sold to a large buyer. How can you take anything from that.




It must be a x.

If a broker held 50 buys totaling 10 million and a large seller 
who's instructed to sell then it would show as a single transaction.
This may not be all they want to sell.
But if your right 1 on 1 then I see your point.

Whatever the case we will know in a day or so.


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## Country Lad (12 April 2013)

tech/a said:


> I've got it as a normal trade at 10.08




No, it was before open.  The match-out for TPM occurred at 10:09:04, after the 10:08 cross.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## pavilion103 (12 April 2013)

What does the S1XT and XT stand for and how do they work?

Can someone please explain this briefly.

Much appreciated.


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## pavilion103 (12 April 2013)

And why isn't it showing up in the chart on my IB app on my iPhone?

That volume isn't showing up at the bottom of the chart. Other days the volume bar shows up fine. 

Can anyone think of any reasons?


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## skc (12 April 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> What does the S1XT and XT stand for and how do they work?
> 
> Can someone please explain this briefly.
> 
> Much appreciated.




Google S1XT ASX. It's all there.

Personally I read nothing into it. Two consenting adults making a trade in a cross...


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## skc (12 April 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> And why isn't it showing up in the chart on my IB app on my iPhone?
> 
> That volume isn't showing up at the bottom of the chart. Other days the volume bar shows up fine.
> 
> Can anyone think of any reasons?




I don't know about iphone IB charts - but my guess is either:

1. S1XT is not charted by default.

or

2. Out of hour trades are not charted.


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## Country Lad (12 April 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> And why isn't it showing up in the chart on my IB app on my iPhone?
> 
> 
> That volume isn't showing up at the bottom of the chart. Other days the volume bar shows up fine.
> ...




Probably because it was an off market (before open) trade.

pav, I think you are getting knickers in knot over a very minor issue which is a normal occurrence which has zero effect on TPM trading. 

It is an off market cross of a certain size as shown by the condition code.  Haven't you notice identical occurrences after close which also do not show up on charts - happens all over the place every day.  They are shown in the trades simply to record the cross.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## pavilion103 (12 April 2013)

No worries. Just trying to understand. 

So these off market exchanges aren't part of the volume that appears on charts?


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## Country Lad (12 April 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> No worries. Just trying to understand.
> 
> So these off market exchanges aren't part of the volume that appears on charts?




Now we need to be a bit more specific.  These off market before open crosses do not appear on the live charts in my system, nor in Iress if I remember correctly, and I assume not in IB, but I have no experience with IB. The after market crosses are not relevant because there is no longer live data.

They do however appear in the volume for the day in end-of-day data for charting with systems such as Metastock, EZY  and others.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## pavilion103 (12 April 2013)

Thanks, champion!


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## pavilion103 (17 April 2013)

A strong day today. Nice little move up 4.6%.

Also a similar situation with volume. 2.8M, showing up on the chart as less than $1M. At least I know why this time!


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## pavilion103 (30 April 2013)

A nice move up to $3.64 this morning. This one is trending well. I should put up a chart when I get time.


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## pavilion103 (20 May 2013)

I bought another parcel at 3.88

A nice little triangle consolidation and good volume characteristics. Up to 3.98 this morning. Not much to suggest that it won't continue at this stage. Stop up to 3.70


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## PinguPingu (17 September 2013)

Profits up 64%, plans to expand their own Fibre to the building service: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-17/tpg-telecom-profit-lifts/4962454


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## pixel (25 September 2013)

PinguPingu said:


> Profits up 64%, plans to expand their own Fibre to the building service: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-17/tpg-telecom-profit-lifts/4962454




My alert fired on the 16th; sadly, it ran too far too fast the day after and I'm not allowing myself to chase. (Should've broken the rule - just this once... : )





Note how the June-July rally dropped back to the 50% level before the breakout; and then it hit 200% before reversing. $4.00 would be the mid-point of this latest breakout. Of course there is no guarantee it'll get there and find support; but that's where I'll set my next alert.


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## DocK (25 September 2013)

Came to my attention on the 17th, when results were presented and it rose in price considerably.  I've had it on a watchlist for some time, but as I already hold iinet and amcom, didn't see the point in adding another Telco unless I could pick it up at a good price  I've noticed that price has often come back to the 50-day mov ave and am hoping to pick it up somewhere between 3.80 and 4.00.  I too was reluctant to chase price, and it seems that some profit-taking may just bring the price back to our target areas.


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## Country Lad (25 September 2013)

pixel said:


> My alert fired on the 16th; sadly, it ran too far too fast the day after




That was because of the results and the news that fibre wholesalers such as OPENetworks and TPG are installing fast internet into thousands of apartments in high-density complexes, years ahead of National Broadband Network installations in those areas.

The service providers running on the OPENetworks system at Sydney Park Village are offering speeds of up to 100/40 megabits per second for downloading/uploading.   TPM announcing  that "With the evolution of new technologies now enabling speeds of up to 100 Mbps this will enable the Group to commence offering very high-speed broadband services to its customers at ADSL2+ prices" has probably contributed to the price staying high for a couple of days. 

I expect all this is now in the price and it may ease off a bit.  Or not.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## DocK (25 September 2013)

Just a thought bubble, and off-topic, but does anyone consider that properties with fibre directly to the home, rather than to the node as is now planned, will be more marketable or even worth a little more than like for like properties without it?  Those that have been lucky enough to get Labor's NBN rollout so far at taxpayer's expense must be glad for their good fortune.


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## skc (25 September 2013)

DocK said:


> Just a thought bubble, and off-topic, but does anyone consider that properties with fibre directly to the home, rather than to the node as is now planned, will be more marketable or even worth a little more than like for like properties without it?  Those that have been lucky enough to get Labor's NBN rollout so far at taxpayer's expense must be glad for their good fortune.




Yes of course. The rollout costs a few $k for the house so it will add value but probably not a huge amount in the context of a house. Unless it happens to be a high frequency trader looking to buy.


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## matty77 (25 September 2013)

matty77 said:


> I guess the question is:
> 
> 1. Are the customers they are subscribing long term AND do they pay their bills? We all know in the Telco industry its easier to get customers, but its a different thing to get good paying customers.
> 
> 2. How will the NBN benifit or hinder TPG, is it going to help them or not?




Well I have jumped in a few times on this stock and held and its been quiet good for me now!

So with the NBN basically dead what does that mean for TPG?

Some of the other internet providers seem to be treading water a bit at the moment...


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## ricee007 (26 November 2013)

I get the feeling that $4.03 on 21/11/13 was the "buy" time for those into short-term trading.

Easy to see in retrospect, but alas.


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## piggybank (21 December 2013)




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## piggybank (24 December 2013)




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## piggybank (2 January 2014)




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## piggybank (16 January 2014)

Some professional Technical Analysists have been saying for some months now that this stock has gone to high and due for a pullback. But as usual they are wrong and the stock has kept on going north (up).


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## Muschu (16 January 2014)

piggybank said:


> Some professional Technical Analysists have been saying for some months now that this stock has gone to high and due for a pullback. But as usual they are wrong and the stock has kept on going north (up).
> 
> View attachment 56343




Which analysts please?


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## pixel (17 January 2014)

Muschu said:


> Which analysts please?




I've been wondering about the same, Rick62;

I may not be a professional, but I do consider myself a Technical Analyst. And going back to my commentary in September, when I suggested a buy-zone at $4, I thought I read it pretty well. As usual, when more data became available, I adjusted the ranges and associated Fibonacci Subdivision; that's why I no longer waited for $4 exactly, but was happy to take $4.20 as average cost base.


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## piggybank (17 January 2014)

Muschu said:


> Which analysts please?




Why do you need to know? Isn't my word enough? If you did know, would it change your mind about buying or selling the stock?

Btw Pixel have you thought of putting a chart up that is more "Professional" so other readers can see what you are talking about!! You have more lines on your charts than there are at Flinders Railway Station


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## Trembling Hand (17 January 2014)

piggybank said:


> Why do you need to know? Isn't my word enough? If you did know, would it change your mind about buying or selling the stock?
> 
> Btw Pixel have you thought of putting a chart up that is more "Professional" so other readers can see what you are talking about!! You have more lines on your charts than there are at Flinders Railway Station
> 
> View attachment 56349




LOL funny......... in a trolly bollie kind of way


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## peaceofmind (25 March 2014)

one of the most expensive stocks on the ASX

a p/e of 25+ for a junior telco in australia is totally well beyond value.

$5bn+ market cap touched today. Add in $400m in debt, and it has a $5.4bn Enterprise value(EV). its EV/Profit ratio is an extraordinary 27x.

EV to sales ratio is also huge, trading at over 7x sales of $800m! 


Only $190-200m net profit, and very low dividends due to capital expenditure and paying for acquisitions like the underperforming AAPT.

sure some growth, but all from a low base and as per usual extrapolated for future years as is the norm in todays bubbly market. its EPS annual growth is in the 10-15% mark just this year, but its share price is up 60% since october! Its up over 6x since GFC prices. Its debt load has increased more % than the earnings.

The size of the australian market for telecom services is limited population wise.
There will surely be increased competitive activity and the profit margins will decline.


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## piggybank (25 March 2014)

peaceofmind said:


> There will surely be increased competitive activity and the profit margins will decline.




Maybe but the market doesn't seem to be in agreeance with you presently peaceofmind.


​
More can be seen of their 1H14 results reported on the ASX today:- http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TPM&E=ASX&N=789791

​


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## piggybank (3 April 2014)

Surprised no one else has added to the thread given it's continuing success.

​


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## rcm617 (3 April 2014)

piggybank said:


> Surprised no one else has added to the thread given it's continuing success.
> 
> View attachment 57456​




Just keeps going up and up, ever since Teoh took this over. Only wish I hadn't sold half my holdings several years ago at $1.50. Keep thinking I should sell half again but might regret that in the future again. Should be a bit of growth coming from integrating the AAPT acquisition.


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## peaceofmind (5 April 2014)

rcm617 said:


> Just keeps going up and up, ever since Teoh took this over. Only wish I hadn't sold half my holdings several years ago at $1.50. Keep thinking I should sell half again but might regret that in the future again. Should be a bit of growth coming from integrating the AAPT acquisition.




what company can grow their earnings 5-10% a week? This company is averaging 5% up per week since late last year. thats unbelievable.

last i checked, its selling at a 7-8x revenue multiple. its growing earnings from a low base in a mature telco market(australia with 22mil population only). how many customers are really possible without international expansion. at some point growth will stop, and i'd say a valuation of $2-3bn EV is the maximum for this coy(not 6 billion currently).


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## rcm617 (5 April 2014)

peaceofmind said:


> what company can grow their earnings 5-10% a week? This company is averaging 5% up per week since late last year. thats unbelievable.
> 
> last i checked, its selling at a 7-8x revenue multiple. its growing earnings from a low base in a mature telco market(australia with 22mil population only). how many customers are really possible without international expansion. at some point growth will stop, and i'd say a valuation of $2-3bn EV is the maximum for this coy(not 6 billion currently).




Yes, agree it isn't cheap, PE of about 30 for FY 14, so it is priced for perfection. Can't agree that we are in a mature Telco market, I would think the market is still growing.
The biggest company in the Telco space has a market cap of $57 billion, so plenty of room to expand in this market.
The other thing I like about TPM is that Theo has a big stake in this company, about 30% from memory. He takes all his dividends in shares, so plenty of confidence from him that this company will continue growing.
Despite all this I would think it is due for a bit of a pullback soon, however I have faith in this company in the long run.


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## peaceofmind (5 April 2014)

rcm617 said:


> Yes, agree it isn't cheap, PE of about 30 for FY 14, so it is priced for perfection. Can't agree that we are in a mature Telco market, I would think the market is still growing.
> The biggest company in the Telco space has a market cap of $57 billion, so plenty of room to expand in this market.
> The other thing I like about TPM is that Theo has a big stake in this company, about 30% from memory. He takes all his dividends in shares, so plenty of confidence from him that this company will continue growing.
> Despite all this I would think it is due for a bit of a pullback soon, however I have faith in this company in the long run.




its in a bubble. not saying its a bad company. but its valuation is a reflection of the QE growth stock bubble. 

I took one look at the chart. its gone 90 degrees perfectly. No company is perfect. It has about $400m in debt.

you can't compare it with Telstra which is a former public utility and owns all the infrastructure including for NBN. Most of TPG's services are retail level only. It just resells it from Telstra and Optus - its just a middleman.

Market maybe growing, but its all from a low base, and the limited population means natural barriers are there.

Re growth some of its growth is one-off. Like the AAPT acquisition using debt. That might increase earnings from 1 year to next, but it has also increased its debt on the balance sheet and capex liabilities. AAPT is a maintenance capex hungry business.


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## rcm617 (6 April 2014)

peaceofmind said:


> its in a bubble. not saying its a bad company. but its valuation is a reflection of the QE growth stock bubble.
> 
> I took one look at the chart. its gone 90 degrees perfectly. No company is perfect. It has about $400m in debt.
> 
> ...




The only reason TPM has this debt is because it has just paid $385 million for AAPT, which will increase its revenue by 50%. In the past it has always paid this debt down very quickly from its abundant free cash flow.
I'm not comparing it to TLS, just pointing out there is plenty of room left for expansion. It has infrastructure, including overseas submarine cables and 4000 km of cable in Australia. Add to that 11,000 km of cable from the AAPT acquisition. I believe they will be far more efficient at extracting profit from the business than AAPT was.
Like I said it may have risen a bit fast in the last little while, which is why I have been contemplating selling some, however in the long run they have plenty of growth left in them.


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## VSntchr (11 September 2014)

Some good news for TPG holders this morning, uncertainty lifted - 

"TPG Telecom will be allowed by the competition regulator to keep connecting urban apartments to its high speed broadband network despite NBN Co's claim it could lead to its business case collapsing and the potential it could add billions of dollars in expenses to the Budget." - SMH


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## piggybank (24 September 2014)

Yesterdays price action (Up 6% at the close) suggested the market liked the full year results which can be seen here:-

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TPM&E=ASX&N=819132

Analyst consensus forecasts are for a possible 19% average annual increase in earnings for the next two years. The PE is 29, so you are paying a premium for this growth. Its yield is 1.3% fully franked.


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## FAT ALBERT (13 March 2015)

Can someone tell me where TPG is heading.


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## Boggo (13 March 2015)

FAT ALBERT said:


> Can someone tell me where TPG is heading.




I currently hold and was hoping for around $8.80 based on the assumption that this run up would be a repeat of the previous run.
It has gone up through that level now obviously, there may be a few sellers appearing but I suspect the interest in their market position will attract some attention that will take care of those.

My new target is around $9.50 based on it having broken through the $8.80 area and assuming this holds then the next area is around 1.272 times the previous run up.
_(don't ask me to explain, it has resulted in arguments in the past  )_

(click to expand)


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## rcm617 (13 March 2015)

Half year results should be out late next week or early the week after, which will give us a good idea how well the aapt integration is going and how far down they have got the debt from that acquisition. Looks like another $1.5 billion of debt to acquire IIN as well as $200m of IIN own debt. Fortunate cash is cheap at the moment.
Still holding mine, so hopefully Teoh can keep weaving his magic with acquisitions.


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## j2k (22 July 2015)

What do people here think will happen to the share price with the takeover of iiNet?  

Although there news that some shareholders aren't happy about the acquisition with the vote to occur this Monday.

Usually acquisition are good for a company if they fit well enough but do people here believe it's already over-valued?  

Thanks
James


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## So_Cynical (23 July 2015)

j2k said:


> What do people here think will happen to the share price with the takeover of iiNet?
> 
> Although there news that some shareholders aren't happy about the acquisition with the vote to occur this Monday.
> 
> ...




I hold IIN and will vote yes, not that my 1200 shares will make a difference  i can't see TPM going higher in the short term with all that new debt however becoming the clear #2 provider will have a positive impact down the road.

I'm inclined to sell out after the merger has gone thru and i get my big fat dividend.


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## FAT ALBERT (23 November 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> I hold IIN and will vote yes, not that my 1200 shares will make a difference  i can't see TPM going higher in the short term with all that new debt however becoming the clear #2 provider will have a positive impact down the road.
> 
> I'm inclined to sell out after the merger has gone thru and i get my big fat dividend.





I,ve just got my Share Purchase Plan App form, but I'm not sure if TPG will be heading anywhere in the near future. Is any body jumping into these.


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## rcm617 (23 November 2015)

FAT ALBERT said:


> I,ve just got my Share Purchase Plan App form, but I'm not sure if TPG will be heading anywhere in the near future. Is any body jumping into these.




Probably worth waiting till after the AGM on the 2nd of December to see if we get any feedback.
Noticed Teoh is still taking his dividend in shares so he is still optimistic.


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## JTLP (28 September 2016)

Thoughts from anybody? Sitting around 8.70 now after getting smashed on an increased capital requirement and less $ from the NBN apparently. Although rumour has it that the costs will come down.


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## joeno (28 September 2016)

JTLP said:


> Thoughts from anybody? Sitting around 8.70 now after getting smashed on an increased capital requirement and less $ from the NBN apparently. Although rumour has it that the costs will come down.




Yes I have a thought about the company in general. And it's not good. I've thought this for years yet it kept going up. A small cheap company with a cheap(skate) philosophy. "make 'em pay less, give 'em the bare minimum"

There's no innovation in that. No genius. Unlike 5 years ago when the share price actually reflected the quality of the service, it does not now. In the past 12 month i've had to cancel all of my TPG packages because the quality has just become so bad as of late.


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## Tightwad (29 September 2016)

I haven't had too many problems with them, having to deal with overseas customer service is a joke though.  Teoh has managed to make a lot of savings with whatever he takes over.  Customer churn rates are lower from memory Telstra on 10% vs about 6% on TPM.

There seems room for modest growth still and the singapore mobile stuff is on the horizon.  Talk about NBN and how RSP's can't make enough margin is helpful, hopefully something will come of it.  I'd previously taken profits on half my holding, bought a few more.


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## dpgrubesic (6 October 2016)

Anyone think this is over sold in light of recent events?


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## Miner (7 October 2016)

dpgrubesic said:


> Anyone think this is over sold in light of recent events?




I believe TPG got sentiment from VOC where as two have different scenarios even on same business.
TPG's financial result was robust and market (IMO) over reacted.
People with nerve could take the depressed price as a wait and watch and jump into with some cash.
VOC on the other hand is descending with a bad shape.  That does mean the rivals like TPG and TLS will capture the gaps. 
My two cents and Do hold .


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## skc (7 October 2016)

Miner said:


> I believe TPG got sentiment from VOC where as two have different scenarios even on same business.
> TPG's financial result was robust and market (IMO) over reacted.
> People with nerve could take the depressed price as a wait and watch and jump into with some cash.
> VOC on the other hand is descending with a bad shape.  That does mean the rivals like TPG and TLS will capture the gaps.
> My two cents and Do hold .




TPM's report was OK but the forecast was much lower than market expectations. I don't believe the market over-reacted. If anything it's just dialing back its previous (mostly warranted) exuberance.


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## dpgrubesic (12 October 2016)

I dont know if this will bottom out anytime soon putting this on the watch if it tips below 6.50$ might be worth buying? I dont know if it has been over-sold but it would have to be approaching at semi-attractive entree point. Any thoughts?


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## skc (13 April 2017)

Big move by TPM into mobile... as well discussed over at the TLS and VOC threads.

A question... it appears that the spectrum won by TPM is only licensed for 11 years. That doesn't seem like a very long time. Does anyone know what happens at the end of the license? Does TPM need to re-bid? Would the re-bid price be as high as the first time round? Or would technology moved on such that this spectrum becomes irrevelant anyway?


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## Miner (13 April 2017)

skc said:


> Big move by TPM into mobile... as well discussed over at the TLS and VOC threads.
> 
> A question... it appears that the spectrum won by TPM is only licensed for 11 years. That doesn't seem like a very long time. Does anyone know what happens at the end of the license? Does TPM need to re-bid? Would the re-bid price be as high as the first time round? Or would technology moved on such that this spectrum becomes irrelevant anyway?



My observations on the Telco saga:
TPG needs skills to be poached from TLS very soon.
They attempted too quick to be too big and SKC rightly asked 11 years for an infrastructure company is too short scenario. I did not see any long term strategic undertaking on their submission on ASX. What their strength is that they will start with new technology and lower maintenance cost. But there is a big uphill task to establish their credentials to make a large bit on TLS loyalists. Many places have no choice but to rely on Telstra. Big Corporates still prefer Telstra.
Another operator unnoticed - AYS. They also rising but with TPG move probably they will look for helpline.
Disclosure: holding VOC, TPM (do not want to see their price on Tuesday - It would probably lower than their right issue price) and AYM. Sold out TLS (at least) with no gain no loss basis after pocketing dividend. Not happy with scenario coming next week but no choice now.


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## skc (13 April 2017)

Miner said:


> My observations on the Telco saga:
> TPG needs skills to be poached from TLS very soon.
> They attempted too quick to be too big and SKC rightly asked 11 years for an infrastructure company is too short scenario.




Surely they can't just lose the spectrum at the end of the 11 years?! I don't see how the numbers can possibly stack up if there is no mobile business after 11 years.

FWIW, I think the move by TPM is actually a strategic defensive move. David Teoh hasn't explicitly admitted it... but he did say that it's something they had to do. With a $40B NBN gorilla trampling their core broadband business, they need that mobile string to its bow. There would have been no growth opportunities 3 years out.

It's a bold and risky move... but I admire Teoh's entrepreneurial spirit and it's rare to see company make bold moves to invest for the future. It doesn't mean the shareholders will be better off than now in the absolute sense, but perhaps better than the alternative where they don't have much of a future.

The take up of the insto offer will give a good hint on how TPM is likely to open on Tuesday. It should have been completed by now but perhaps the news flow is a bit slower on the Easter eve.


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## Miner (13 April 2017)

skc said:


> Surely they can't just lose the spectrum at the end of the 11 years?! I don't see how the numbers can possibly stack up if there is no mobile business after 11 years.
> 
> FWIW, I think the move by TPM is actually a strategic defensive move. David Teoh hasn't explicitly admitted it... but he did say that it's something they had to do. With a $40B NBN gorilla trampling their core broadband business, they need that mobile string to its bow. There would have been no growth opportunities 3 years out.
> 
> ...




Yes SKC Tuesday will unfold many things. Of course how market, Trump, North Korea travel in next four days will also affect on Tuesday.
One thing for sure, sometimes an excellent entrepreneur could manage a $500 M business over years but not necessarily repeat success for a much diversified high-tech business of three times the size.
Size is not always true.   
*So David Teoh and SOL have put a fortune on this capital raising.* Surely those billionaires have much better knowledge than many salaried executives,  so let us be optimistic. In fact if TPM dives down on Tuesday much lower than $5.25 then I will forgo the rights and buy from market.


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## nicknick (1 July 2018)

Hey guys, I am relativity new to the game and am just learning to study companies to find some good value. Most of the telecommunications shares are tumbling and it's interesting to read what they are all planning to do to going forward. TPG seems a reasonable price at the moment and I like their plans of releasing a data only plan for 9.99 to really capture that younger audience who basically just use whats app and messenger to communicate. What's your thoughts on TPG going forward? Thank you in advnace


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## greggles (1 July 2018)

nicknick said:


> Hey guys, I am relativity new to the game and am just learning to study companies to find some good value. Most of the telecommunications shares are tumbling and it's interesting to read what they are all planning to do to going forward. TPG seems a reasonable price at the moment and I like their plans of releasing a data only plan for 9.99 to really capture that younger audience who basically just use whats app and messenger to communicate. What's your thoughts on TPG going forward? Thank you in advnace



Hard to say at the moment. It's fallen from a high of around $6.90 in early January to $5.17 on Friday. There appears to be support at $5.10, a level which it mostly seems to be staying above. Volume is up a bit recently but at the moment TPM appears to be in a consolidation phase.

I'd be watching for any strong move up on high volume as a sign that buyers are in control and sellers are backing off.


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## galumay (2 July 2018)

nicknick said:


> TPG seems a reasonable price at the moment




How do you calculate TPG to be a reasonable price? Have you actually done the research and analysis and come up with a range of value, or are you just assuming because the price is lower than it was in the past, its a "reasonable price"? Because if that is the case its a very dangerous trap for an investor to fall into and is a classic case of anchoring bias.

I have no idea, because I dont see any value in the sector, they all look like awful businesses, badly managed, shrinking margins, intense competition...

Finally I would never own part of a business that has the sort of disregard for customers that David Teoh at TPG has demonstrated, long term that is value destructing.


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## tinhat (22 August 2018)

Nice break-out today on big volume over confirmation that TPG and Vodafone Hutchison are exploring merger. It looks like a short squeeze might be on so I have an order in the market to take some profits. So far it has been a positive reporting season and I think there are plenty of opportunities to find good value, especially in any market pull-back. I think its a good time to put some cash into reserve.


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## HelloU (22 August 2018)

(another side to this is SOL)


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## notting (22 August 2018)

More shorter slaughter!!


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## barney (22 August 2018)

notting said:


> More shorter slaughter!!




Definitely looks like the trend today


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## greggles (23 August 2018)

TPG and Vodafone about to merge? Yesterday's announcement has certainly set the TPM share price on fire.



> 22 August 2018
> 
> PRELIMINARY DISCUSSIONS REGARDING MERGER WITH VHA
> 
> ...




From $5.67 to $8.52 in five trading sessions is a pretty impressive share price increase for a medium cap telecommunications company. The market seems to think that this merger is a done deal. Is it I wonder?


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## barney (23 August 2018)

HTA is up around 100% today after the announcement


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## PZ99 (30 August 2018)

Merge announced > http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-30/tpg-vodafone-announce-merger/10181634



Spoiler



Australia's third and fourth largest telecommunications companies, TPG Telecom and Vodafone Hutchinson Australia (VHA), have confirmed they will combine in a "proposed merger of equals".

However, Vodafone will have the majority stake (50.1 per cent), while TPG's stake will be 49.9 per cent.

"The merger will create a more effective challenger to Telstra and Optus," TPG said in a statement on Thursday.

TPG estimates the merged company will be worth $15 billion, and the deal to be finalised next year.

After the merger, the combined entity will remain listed on the Australian stock exchange as TPG Telecom Limited.

Whether or not the merger proceeds will depend on the companies getting approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB).

VHA is a privately owned company, and is a joint venture between its British parent company Vodafone Group Plc and Hutchison Telecommunications (Australia) Limited.

The board of the merged entity would include directors from both companies.

TPG's chief executive David Teoh, would be the non-executive chairman of the merged group, while Vodafone boss Inaki Berroeta would assume the position of CEO and managing director of the new entity.


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## tinhat (30 August 2018)

I couldn't resist the temptation to take my money off the table. I just sold at $9.30. I don't have a strong conviction about TPM pre-merger, so I'd rather put the money in the bank for the moment. I will be interested to hear of any thought/analysis of the proposed merged entity. I see the price has continued to shoot up. $9.54 as I type. I expect there is a massive short squeeze on.


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## So_Cynical (30 August 2018)

TPG - Teoh will end up with less than 50% so no control, Teoh basically has given up his baby, the current price action reminds me of the Vocus merger frenzy of 18 months ago.


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## tinhat (30 August 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> TPG - Teoh will end up with less than 50% so no control, Teoh basically has given up his baby, the current price action reminds me of the Vocus merger frenzy of 18 months ago.




What percentage will he end up owning post-merger? He and Soul Pattinson are currently the largest shareholders in TPG and they may remain aligned post merger. My understanding (but I could be wrong) is that Hutchison and Vodafone are 50/50 owners of Vodafone so they will end up with 25.25% each of the merged company. Also, it seems that TPG Singapore is being spun-off prior to the merger and Teoh will end up controlling that for what that is worth. So, he may still have considerable, if not effective, control post merger.

I guess they had to get the deal on the table now before the upcoming spectrum auction because otherwise they would have been competing with each other for spectrum or, if they entered into an agreement not to compete without announcing it that might have got them in trouble for anti-competitive behaviour. I note that they have already formed a joint venture entity to bid in the spectrum auction separate to pursuing  the full merger of the entities, which of course will take some time and is subject to regulatory and shareholder approval.


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## peter2 (19 March 2019)

Added TPM to the research portfolio today after their HY19 presentation. The market seems to have liked what's happened (huge writedown) as today's bar looks likely to end up. 

The chart shows price has been coiling in a triangle pattern which could break out in either direction. I'm favouring UP.


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## HelloU (20 March 2019)

trade the trade pete

(the previous merge stuff is a little unclear still and tpg are looking at a 4G hole atm)


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## sptrawler (10 September 2019)

The merger is in the courts at the moment, it should be interesting to watch the outcome, to overturn the ACCC decision would be a big call. But reading the court proceedings, TPG are putting forward compelling arguments.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...d-on-fallacy-court-hears-20190910-p52ppu.html

There will be a BIG bounce, if the court does overturn the ACCC decision. IMO


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## Trav. (27 January 2020)

TPM ticking all the box's for me on the chart below.

HL, BO, Trend, Volume...all very nice and now on watch list


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## rnr (31 January 2020)

Just a lesson in how wrong you can be!

My comments on the attached chart are based on the bar for Friday January 24th, 2020 (the bar with the question mark). Man I didn't just get that wrong, hopefully you will excuse the expression, I stuffed it up completely.


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## barney (31 January 2020)

rnr said:


> I stuffed it up completely.




Nah … I think your reservation was justified RNR …. It had tried at least 6 times in the last year to break that level and failed so it was still an each way bet.

Now that it's broken the long term $6-7 range, the $8 mark looks on the cards.


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## Trav. (31 January 2020)

I had a buy in earlier this week that was triggered and happy to be holding as I am in the green 

Closed @ $7.48 after high of $7.57......good momentum and volume so we will see if it can hold it's gains made this week.


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## Dona Ferentes (12 February 2020)

Decision Day: TPG Telecom and Vodafone Hutchison Australia learn whether their $15 billion merger can go ahead today


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## HelloU (13 February 2020)

(well on Thursday but whatevs)

Both now in halt......13th...... sol has not been a skyrocket lately....


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## Dona Ferentes (13 February 2020)

HelloU said:


> (well on Thursday but whatevs)
> 
> Both now in halt.......



the wheels of justice turn slowly


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## Dona Ferentes (13 February 2020)

The Federal Court has given the *green light* to the $15 billion merger of TPG and Vodafone, saying the combined entity will create a stronger competitive force against Telstra and Optus.

The decision, which is open to appeal, brings to head a four-month long legal tussle between the telcos and the competition regulator

(_and SOL up 5%_)


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## sptrawler (13 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> The Federal Court has given the *green light* to the $15 billion merger of TPG and Vodafone, saying the combined entity will create a stronger competitive force against Telstra and Optus.
> 
> The decision, which is open to appeal, brings to head a four-month long legal tussle between the telcos and the competition regulator
> 
> (_and SOL up 5%_)



At last common sense prevails IMO, sometimes I think the ACCC thinks there is a bottomless pit of consumers in Australia, that can support endless amounts of minor players. 
Here is an article covering the story.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...led-to-embarrassing-loss-20200213-p540gv.html


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## Dona Ferentes (5 March 2020)

ACCC not going to appeal the decision; TPG up 10%


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## Dona Ferentes (4 July 2020)

code change (and Tuas TUA spun out) since 01 July

TPM is now TPG
*TPG TELECOM LIMITED.*


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## Dona Ferentes (26 March 2021)

*down 8%*

The reclusive chairman of TPG Telecom, David Teoh, has resigned from the  telecoms company, with his son and fellow board director Shane Teoh also heading for the exit. 



> _Mr Teoh will keep his 17.2 per cent stake in TPG following his shock exit. He  and his associates hold 254.6 million shares that are under escrow   until July 2022, meaning they cannot be sold until then, as part of the merger agreement between TPG and Vodafone Hutchinson Australia in July 2020._


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## peter2 (26 March 2021)

Considered *TPG* as a speculative reversal opportunity after today's price drop due to resignation of CEO. The existing management steps up so there's no real change. 

My trade would be a buy stop at 6.50 with an iSL at 6.35/6.30 with an initial target at 7.00 (fill the gap).

However I declined as the price remains in a longer term down trend and remains quite volatile. Price will find a bottom somewhere.


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## finicky (26 March 2021)

Continuing a 10 month downtrend, but from today's move only has dropped out of  > 4 year uptrend

Decade daily, with price below negatively crossed 50 and 200 dma's


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## divs4ever (21 February 2022)

Telstra and TPG Telecom sign landmark network sharing agreement for regional Australia 

21 February 2022 - Telstra and TPG Telecom Limited today announced a ground-breaking
ten-year regional Multi-Operator Core Network (MOCN) commercial agreement, which will
provide significant value to Telstra’s wholesale mobile revenues, while providing TPG
Telecom group’s subscribers with 4G and 5G services within a defined coverage zone
across regional and urban fringe areas.
Under the innovative deal TPG Telecom will gain access to around 3,700 of Telstra’s mobile
network assets, increasing TPG Telecom’s current 4G coverage from around 96 per cent to
98.8 per cent of the population.
Telstra will gain access to TPG Telecom’s spectrum across 4G and 5G, which will allow it to
grow its network, increase capacity and continue to provide the country’s largest and fastest
network.
Under the MOCN arrangement Telstra will share its Radio Access Network (RAN) for 4G
and subsequently 5G services in the defined coverage zone, however both carriers will
continue to operate their own core network where key differentiating functionality resides.
Telstra will also obtain access to and deploy infrastructure on up to 169 TPG Telecom
existing mobile sites, improving coverage for TPG and Telstra customers in the zone. The
non-exclusive agreement includes the option for TPG Telecom to request two contract
extensions of five years each.
Telstra CEO Andrew Penn said the deal provided significant value to shareholders and
customers and was a continuation of Telstra’s strategy to maximise the utilisation and
monetisation of its assets.
“This additional spectrum will mean that all Telstra customers will continue to experience
Australia’s best and fastest network across the country, in combined 4G and 5G speeds. In
particular, the spectrum agreement will ensure that regional and rural customers will now
experience faster speeds in more locations on their mobiles.”
TPG Telecom CEO Iñaki Berroeta said the landmark network sharing agreement would
significantly expand TPG Telecom’s mobile network footprint in regional Australia and
enable growth of its customer base in regional and metropolitan areas.
“It represents a material uplift in the capability of our network and will provide significant
value for TPG Telecom shareholders over the medium and long term.
“We will be open for business in regional and rural Australia like never before, offering a 4G
network that provides 98.8% population coverage and rapidly growing 5G coverage across
the nation.
“The agreement demonstrates best-practice asset utilisation and a commitment to
rationalising our operations to deliver a better customer experience, while increasing capital
efficiency.
Mr Penn said, “With more people moving to regional areas as a result of COVID, congestion
in some areas has increased. This additional spectrum will also ensure that Telstra
customers will experience significantly reduced congestion at busy times.
2
“Telstra’s network has always been and will continue to be the best network – the structure
of the deal ensures that we will continue to differentiate in network leadership for our
customers in coverage and services.
“We can do that because we will maintain our one million square km competitive advantage
in mobile coverage where no other operators have invested. Mobile coverage is often talked
about as population coverage, however we all know that it’s the square kilometres of
coverage when you travel between towns and cities that also matters. It is the fabric of our
mobile network.
“This is critical for customers living and working in those areas. It provides security and
safety when travelling long distances on major roads and is only available for our customers
travelling through or working or living in those areas.”
Mr Penn said the innovative deal would realise more value from Telstra’s network
infrastructure for shareholders while making a very significant contribution to Telstra’s
wholesale mobile revenues.
“The deal provides TPG Telecom with the opportunity to access some of our network assets
within the defined zone. The access is similar to the way Telstra currently provides
wholesale services to its MVNOs and Belong in this zone.
“Similar to monetising our passive infrastructure, it allows Telstra to have an innovative way
of monetising some of our active mobile infrastructure, in areas where the population
coverage is much smaller and more challenging in terms of returns and further investment
and where there are already a number of competitors.
“Additional scale from this agreement therefore supports return on invested capital in these
areas and makes ongoing investment in the network and innovation more sustainable.”
Mr Berroeta said the agreement was a win for TPG customers who would have access to a
significant part of the best regional network in Australia.
“The deal will give TPG Telecom’s consumer, enterprise and wholesale customers seamless
access to a national network. This will enable TPG Telecom’s Vodafone, TPG, iiNet, Lebara
and felix brands to improve their services for regional Australians.”
Access to this additional coverage will be automatic for all of TPG Telecom group’s
customers and will appear to them as being provided by their current TPG Telecom group
provider.
TPG Telecom will continue to operate its own 3G, 4G and 5G networks in metropolitan areas
reaching around 80 per cent of the population, which includes its network infrastructure
sharing arrangement with Optus in those areas.
TPG Telecom will decommission the 725 mobile sites it currently operates within the MOCN
coverage area, reducing environmental impact, energy consumption, operating costs and
future capex.
Subject to approval by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, the MOCN is
expected to be available to TPG customers by the end of the year.
END

DYOR

i hold TPG ( bought as TPM . 'free-carried ' )


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