# GBP - Global Petroleum



## robs12 (30 November 2006)

I have just moved down under, & have held these for a little while now (they are dual listed on ASX & London AIM). From what I can see they have never had a mention on the forums here....which is a little surprising (to me at least).

A quick summary of GBP:

GBP has a 20% free carry on two wells about to be drilled offshore Kenya, operator is Woodside, with other partners Dana Petroleum (DNX - UK) & Repsol. First well (Pomboo) is due to spud right now.
Has cash of A$6.7m at end September.
Has a stake in FOGL (Falkland Oil & Gas) now worth ~A$24m (and has been dropping rapidly with FOGL share price dropping from 175+UK pence in February to 75p mid yesterday.
They have acreage in Ireland & Malta, but I’m ignoring them as worthless for now - though they are currently shooting seismic in Malta, with potential for farm-in partner RWE to drill next year if something looks good – GBP free carry, but stake reduces to 27%.

GBP at A$131m capitalisation means Kenya is currently valued by the market at ~A$100m (~57c/share). The big question is what is it really worth? If they fail to find any oil, then of course... not a lot.
Merrill Lynch valued Dana's 30% at 89p/share, which equates to approx 75c/share risked for GBP’s 20% stake, so if ML are anywhere in the right ballpark in their assumptions, GBP currently looks cheap (i.e cash & FOGL thrown in for free).
IF the first well (due to spud right now) Pomboo comes in & there are say 1200mboe at 30% recovery at US$4/bbl, that would be worth approx A$377m (A$2.16/share without discounting) to GBP.
On the other hand, if there are 1bn bbls RECOVERABLE (a figure quoted by some), that is approx a whole load more per share….  
If Sokwe (2nd well) subsequently came in at 750mboe OIP too, another approx A$1.37/share.
But perhaps more importantly, IF Pomboo were to come in, irrespective of size, the upside is considerably more than that well alone, given that figures of 20bn bbls RECOVERABLE are being banded around (by GBP) for the two blocks in total (unrisked)….20% of that would be very welcome….about A$122/share… nice whatever risking/discounting you apply.
They would probably be snapped up at a nice premium in quick order.

Other factors - Woodside have little to say about Kenya, & have just farmed out 20% to Repsol (presumably in exchange for some share of the drilling costs?).
GBP state “Woodside and Repsol earn their farm-in equity when these two wells are drilled”.
Would they really drill Sokwe if Pomboo is dry?
Directors hold many shares (& options), though there has been some selling recently, so a lot at stake for them...
So all in all, a big gamble on whether the first Kenyan well is successful. I’d expect to see the SP rise nicely in the next month or so in expectation of drilling results.
All IMHO, DYOR etc.


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## exgeo (25 January 2007)

So now that Sokwe is not going to be drilled in this campaign, what is GBP worth? Zero? Close to it? Shame really as I just bought some at 32c!


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## EasternGrey1 (22 August 2007)

It's been a while since the last post on GBP. The market hasn't woken up to what a bargain GBP is (high risk, but still a bargain). Time for an update :

GBP owns 14% of Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL in London (AIM)).
It also still has an interest in Kenya, plus interests in Malta, Ireland and Queensland, plus $A6,325m cash (Quarterly cashflow report 31/7/07).

FOGL at last night's price £1.165 and exch rate $A1=£0.4031 has market cap $A265.2m, so GBP's holding is worth $A37.13m.
Adding in the cash gives $A43.46m.
That is 0.229 per GBP share.
At this moment, GBP share price is 0.145.

So you can buy GBP's cash + FOGL holding at a huge 36.7% discount, and get all its other assets for free. If you are disappointed at Kenya being dry, no matter, you're paying zero for it anyway.

I'm in!!!

PS. The upside potential is absolutely massive. This is no ordinary small oil exploration company with a few exploration blocks. From the FOGL website:

_Falkland Oil and Gas Limited (“FOGL”) is an oil and gas exploration company focused exclusively on opportunities offshore of the Falkland Islands.  It was admitted to London’s Alternative Investment Market (“AIM”) on 14 October 2004 at an issue price of 40p.  The current major shareholders of FOGL are: Falkland Islands Holdings plc (16.31%), Global Petroleum (13.97%) and RAB Capital plc (32.67%).

At the time of the admission to AIM, FOGL held a 77.5% interest in seven offshore production licences covering approximately 33,700 sq km to the south and east of the Falkland Islands.  FOGL holds these licences in a joint venture with Tullow Oil plc.  In December 2004, FOGL was awarded a 100% licence over an additional 50,000 sq kms adjacent to its existing licence areas. The 65,354 sq km area held by FOGL in 2007 is equivalent to 297 North Sea blocks: as large as the Southern Gas Basin and the Central Graben combined.

FOGL’s work programme in 2007 is specifically designed to de-risk and define the prospects already identified on its acreage.  As such the Company has undertaken a CSEM programme and infill 2D seismic programme to identify the best prospects for drilling in 2008. The results of these surveys are expected later on this year.

FOGL’s stated strategy has been to also introduce a suitable farm-in partner into its acreage.  The Company recently announced that it is in advanced discussions with a Major Natural Resources Company in respect of this, although there is no guarantee that these discussions will lead to that Company participating in FOGL’s future plans.  Further announcements will be made updating on this situation in due course._


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## EasternGrey1 (24 August 2007)

Update :

FOGL price in London has gone up to £1.38.

GBP price has gone up to 0.17.

BUT, value of GBP's cash + FOGL holding is now 0.258c/share, so even though GBP shares have gone up 17% since my last post, they are still selling at about the same discount - 34% - to (cash+FOGL) with all other assets chucked in for free.

You don't often get a bargain like this!!!


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## EasternGrey1 (1 September 2007)

Is anyone out there, or am I talking to myself?

GBP update :

FOGL price in London has gone up to £1.56.

GBP price is still 0.17.

GBP shares now have to go up *70%* just to match the value of their cash + FOGL holding (0.289c/share), with all other assets chucked in for free.

This is insane!!


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## EasternGrey1 (5 September 2007)

Doesn't look like anyone's listening. I suppose when GBP share price goes up enough to catch everyone's attention, someone will take a look here, and realise that I am a genius to have identified it at such a low price!!

FOGL in London closed last night at £1.605.
GBP closed yesterday at 0.215. That's 48% up in the 2 wks since I first recommended it on 22 Aug.

The discount to GBP's (Cash + FOGL) assets now stands at 36.9%. A lot less than 2 weeks ago, but still worth having. Add in a few $m for GBP's other assets and the bargain looks even better.

BTW, I firmly believe that GBP is worth putting a few $$$ into for the much bigger reason that FOGL has a very good chance indeed of finding large quantities of oil. Read all about it on the FOGL website http://www.fogl.com/ (extract in my post 22 Aug).


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## Burnham (11 September 2007)

Keep posting skippy - the story is a good one.

I got burnt on Kenya and am a little gun shy on Global as a result and have held off pending some sort of resolution on remaining drill .....

Have followed the Falklands tale for a while now and suspect long awaited (and now pending ....?) farm in announcment by FOGL will initiate a return to the fold of GBP posters in due course.

If Britain was prepared to go to war over potential oil there I figure I can slot a few quid in GBP for the drills.

Regards,


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## EasternGrey1 (15 September 2007)

Update : 

FOGL in London closed last night at £1.73, up 11.6% on the week.
GBP closed Friday at 0.19, down 5.0% on the week, even more since my last post.

The discount to GBP's (Cash + FOGL) assets now stands at 38.3%, ie the share price has to rise 62.1% just to match the (cash + FOGL) value.

Some helpful weblinks :

GBP website - http://www.globalpetroleum.com.au/

GBP owns 14% of Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL) - http://www.fogl.co.uk/

Broker report on FOGL Nov 2006 - http://www.fogl.co.uk/documents/Equity%20Development%20-%20Report%20-%20November%202006.pdf


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## EasternGrey1 (27 September 2007)

Update:

FOGL announced interim survey results on Monday - data looks encouraging but no definite info, final results due late October.

UK market obviously didn't like it, FOGL shares now down to £1.38.

At current exchange rate, that values GBP's (cash + FOGL holding) at 0.245 per share.

So at 0.19, GBP is still at a 22.3% discount. That's still a nice buffer, but nothing like the absurd level previously.

There's a few more rolls of the dice to go. I suspect strong nerves will be needed between now and late October.


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## iamtrueblue (27 September 2007)

Ok Eastern Grey I have a look at this and you now you have my attention.

I will put this on my watch list for now. I expect this may drop as low as about .17 as is a small downtrend. I will watch what happens in late august. keep posting any new info.

The current price trend is the lowest for about 3 years so worth watch given its infrastructure. Just needs some good results. My chart indicates that this was once a $12 stock-Jan 1996??

On my watch list.


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## EasternGrey1 (29 September 2007)

Good luck, but you might not get in as low as 0.17 - FOGL up 9% in London last night. Discount is back over 30%.


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## EasternGrey1 (1 November 2007)

Time for another update ..

GBP price has come up a bit recently, and FOGL has been a bit softer in London. GBP closed yesterday at 0.21, which is now just a 12% discount to the UK price 1.3417 (exch rate 0.4491).

That seems like a reasonable level to sit and wait for the next developments.

Now GBP is into a new phase - from being obviously undervalued vs the FOGL share price, they are now dependent on oil being found. Still high risk high reward but a different risk profile. 

As a matter of interest, I did a rule-of-thumb calc on FOGL's stated 'risked' potential of 860m bbls (the amount of oil they are likely to find, rather than the full potential of the prospects).

'risked' potential		860	m bbls
valued at say		          8	$US/bbl
exch rate $A1 =	            0.94     $US
FOGL interest		      35%     assuming BHP take up addnl option
GBP holding in FOGL	    14%	

implied GBP mkt cap	  358.6     $Am
GBP mkt cap now		   40.4	

potential upside	    787%	

That's enough to keep me in there.


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## EasternGrey1 (23 November 2007)

FOGL down 10.6% in London last night on no news and on near-average volume, GBP down 7.0% today on similar volume. Every stock tests your nerve at some time - this is it for GBP. I decided a long time ago that I would not sell shares simply because the price was going down, and it's a rule that has paid off very well over the years. So I'm staying in till I hear new information, but there are obviously more than a few bailing out. If you are trying to get on board, here's your chance- though with drilling not starting till well into next year(?) the share price is likely to be pretty volatile between now and then.


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## EasternGrey1 (24 November 2007)

Maybe I should have waited another day before posting that last post - FOGL share price is back up again last night. But the points were valid

Investors will be severely tested by share price movements at times.
I'm not selling until I get more information [unless I think the share price has gone too high - but that's very high].
We have a few months of volatility ahead.
Yesterday could have been a good day to buy in, but there will probably be more.


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## iamtrueblue (24 November 2007)

Yep easterngrey a number of shares are taken a hit at the moment and probably more to go given the downturn in the dow/US economy. Still watching this stock. Keep posting people are reading your posts. Anyone else have any info on this stock that they might like to share on this forum??


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## EasternGrey1 (28 November 2007)

I can't say I'm wildly enthusiastic about this evening's FOGL announcement.
javascript: var x=openWin2('/LSECWS/IFSPages/MarketNewsPopup.aspx?id=1640334&source=RNS', 'News', 800, 600, 'resizable=yes,toolbar=no,location=yes,directories=yes,addressbar=yes,scrollbars=yes,status=yes,menubar=no')

But then it didn't look like the FOGL shareholders went wild, either.

Basically, BHP have bought 51% for a song. OTOH, they are paying a few $m and 68% of the cost of 2 wells for their 51%. Given that in that location I have seen suggestions that wells will cost up to $US200m each, that implicitly values the whole project at around $600m, and FOGL still owns 49%. After allowing for FOGL's future costs, and for the fact that BHP would have negotiated a large discount on their own internal valuation, then FOGL and GBP shares don't look too badly priced.

What really counts is that (a) drilling is now virtually assured, and (b) it's the drilling which will hopefully deliver the true value.

Fingers crossed!!


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## EasternGrey1 (29 November 2007)

On reflection overnight, I am feeling a little happier.

_"BHP Billiton will pay four thirds of 51% (approximately 68%) of
the costs of the near term work programme, including the drilling of two
exploration wells and all other associated work to the completion of this
drilling work."_​
I really don't think BHP would commit to the expense of drilling 2 wells if they weren't pretty confident that there was a good chance of a large amount of oil - they wouldn't be interested in a mere 2-300m bbls, for instance.

_"Note to investors: FOGL is planning to make an announcement on its 2007
exploration results and operational plans shortly."
_​
Should be interesting.


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## EasternGrey1 (9 January 2008)

The GBP/FOGL announcement on 14 Dec is significant - positive CSEM anomalies over 7 of the top 10 prospects with "individual prospects containing potential recoverable volumes .. ranging up to 3,500 million barrels".

CSEM surveys, unlike seismic surveys, actively survey for hydrocarbons not just for likely-looking structures. They can only be used offshore and deep water is best. The Falklands would appear to be an ideal place for them.

Whereas a high proportion of exploration wells tend to be dry, Exxon and others have been using CSEM surveys (Exxon call it R3M) to dramatically increase their offshore 'hit-rate', reportedly to nearly 100%. They are also finding that once a field is proven to exist, delineating wells are not needed, as CSEM accurately shows the field's boundaries.

So the fact that there are positive CSEM anomalies for 7 of FOGL's top 10 prospects is IMHO an extremely significant factor. It very dramatically increases the probability that when BHP starts drilling, they really will find oil.

I reckon that each 1bn bbls that they find is worth over $A1 on the GBP share price, so at around 0.20 it's an extraordinarily attractive bet.

Apologies for not giving links for the above info. I searched and found quite specific info on CSEM and exploration success rates before Christmas, but can't now find it again, so I'm afraid you'll just have to trust my memory. You can read about CSEM generally at http://www.noc.soton.ac.uk/gg/research/geophysics/em.php, http://www.ingenia.org.uk/ingenia/issues/issue26/Macey.pdf and http://www.ohmsurveys.com/. The Falklands get a mention in http://www.ip2ipo.com/ipo/media/portfolio_news/p_2006/2006-11-14b/.

PS. FOGL shares have been being dropping steadily on AIM over the last week or two but I don't know why other than maybe just no new news. Anyone know anything I don't?


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## michael_selway (10 January 2008)

EasternGrey1 said:


> The GBP/FOGL announcement on 14 Dec is significant - positive CSEM anomalies over 7 of the top 10 prospects with "individual prospects containing potential recoverable volumes .. ranging up to 3,500 million barrels".
> 
> CSEM surveys, unlike seismic surveys, actively survey for hydrocarbons not just for likely-looking structures. They can only be used offshore and deep water is best. The Falklands would appear to be an ideal place for them.
> 
> ...




Dude do you know what GBP resource/reserve status is atm, and whats the expected mine life at full production etc

Business Description 
Global Petroleum Limited (GBP, formerly Apollo Group Limited) targets exploration of oil, gas and minerals. The company has operations in Kenya, the Falkland Islands, Ireland, Iraq and Malta.


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## EasternGrey1 (11 January 2008)

Some time ago, they reported their interests as :

20% of Kenya Blocks L5, L7, L10 and L11;
14.0% of Falkland Oil and Gas Limited – listed on AIM;
10.1% of Falkland Gold and Minerals Limited – listed on AIM;
100% of ATP728, Surat Basin, Queensland;
100% of Blocks 57/3, 4, 8 and 9 – Ireland;
100% of Blocks 4 and 5 of Area 3 – Malta.

The Falklands Gold has been sold, and _from memory_ ... I think two Kenya blocks L10 & L11 have been relinquished. L5 had a dry well (the collapse in GBP share price in Jan07), and partners Woodside & Repsol are still to decide whether to drill another and whether to drill L7. RWE has come in as a partner in Malta.

My only interest has been in the Falklands oil. The dry well in Kenya was great for me, as it allowed me to buy into the Falklands without paying anything for anywhere else.

You can download the annual report from http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcementSearch.do?method=searchByCode&issuerCode=gbp&timeFrameSearchType=D&releasedDuringCode=6
and their blurb on Kenya, Malta and the Falklands is pretty straightforward. 

You should also be able to get the annual report and earlier reports from the GBP website http://www.globalpetroleum.com.au/.

Happy hunting.


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## EasternGrey1 (15 January 2008)

OK, I've found a link to the info that I mentioned in my 9 Jan post:
http://www.oilonline.com/news/features/oe/20041201.All_at_s.16706.asp
_The Morgan Stanley report credited CSEM with contributing to ExxonMobil's remarkable run of 13 out of 13 discovery wells offshore Angola. This assertion has not appeared in subsequent, updated versions of the report, nonetheless the implications were there to be drawn: CSEM looks like a key risk management tool for future offshore E&P.​_Given the usually low hit-rate for exploration wells, 13 of 13 is a very impressive statistic.


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## EasternGrey1 (16 January 2008)

Well, iamtrueblue, if you did wait for 0.17, it looks like you got it.

If so, you have just paid peanuts for a company with nearly 7% interest in one of the largest potential oil & gas provinces in the world. Latest CSEM surveys indicate the presence of hydrocarbons in 7 of their top 10 individual prospects, and they still have another 90+ to look at.

And just in case you missed it, CSEM is NOT the same as seismic. Seismic looks for rock structures that are the right shape for holding oil or gas. CSEM is a deepwater high-tech electromagnetic surveying method that detects the presence of hydrocarbons. So if seismic shows a likely structure, and CSEM shows hydrocarbons, bingo, you're in business.

Exploration companies that do really well get a hit-rate of up to about 30% from their exploration wells. Exxon, using CSEM (they call it R3M), has reportedly been getting 100%. 13 out of 13 off Angola I mentioned before, and I've seen some corroborating info. My info is that they are continuing the hit-rate in deepwater New Mexico.

So if BHP start drilling off the Falklands, after CSEM surveys have been done, you can be pretty confident the well won't be dry.

I calculate that 3,500bn barrels (BHP 51%) would add 10-15% to the BHP share price. So a 7% interest is going to be quite good for GBP (I calculate around $7/share)!! And 3,500bn barrels is just the potential of the first prospect with 89 more to go (smaller of course, but so what) .....

Let's get pessimistic, and say that in spite of Exxon's record, the odds are still no better than even money. OK, divide by 2. It's still a couple of years away? Knock off say 35%. Still nervous? divide by 2 again. No matter how you look at it, you're getting long odds for a reasonable bet.

I've been buying GBP at all prices from 0.20 down to 0.145. I acknowledge that it's a gamble, but you don't often see odds like these.

The hard part comes next - waiting probably a year for BHP to start drilling.


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## EasternGrey1 (17 January 2008)

Oops - 2 mistakes. Not 3,500bn of course, but 3,500m. And the GBP interest overall is 4.9% (14% of 35%) not 7%. Using correct figures, and valuing oil in the ground at $US8/bbl (10% of where the price is probably headed) 3,500m bbls would be worth $8+/share on GBP (3500*8*(1/0.89)*4.9%/174.4). The 174.4 is shares on issue.


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## EasternGrey1 (26 February 2008)

FOGL up in London last night on >5x avg volume.
No announcement, no obvious news.

Any clues, anyone??

(GBP share price is starting to drop behind the FOGL value again - FOGL 13.1% holding + $A7.975m cash = 20.8c/share)


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## shaunm (26 February 2008)

Yeah ol' GBP has been doing nothing lately except sliding back a little. Would be nice to see something happening.


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## EasternGrey1 (12 March 2008)

shaunm said:


> Would be nice to see something happening.




Looks like you have your wish. Final Results for FOGL have just been published. A lot of info was repeated from earlier announcements, of course, but the following contains some positive new stuff :
_
Ongoing activity

 The company has entered into a new phase of operations where future work, with BHP Billiton as operator, will lead into the drilling programme. The data from the CSEM survey will undergo enhanced processing and interpretation over the next few months to produce results which will be fully integrated with the existing data and with the recent 2D infill seismic. 

Site surveys are expected to be carried out in the second half of 2008. BHP Billiton is currently reviewing a number of potential rig options and an update on this will be provided at a future point. If appropriate, discussions will be held with the other Falkland operators with respect to rig sharing.

...

Financials

FOGL started the year with £14.9 million in cash, of which £11 million was invested in the exploration programme and £2 million was used to cover operating costs.   At the end of the year, we received US$12.75 million (£6.4 million) from BHP Billiton under the terms of the farm-out agreement bringing the year end cash balance to £12.5 million.

Outlook

This project has been described as high-impact/high-risk by some commentators in the past.  While it is clearly high-impact, we have worked hard to mitigate the risks.

As a result of our technical work and data gathering we believe that the exploration risk has been significantly reduced. Deep water, harsh weather and the remote location have all been cited as potential obstacles to success.  However, the environment is very similar to West of Shetland, UK Northern North Sea and the Norwegian Sea. In all of these areas, oil and gas have been successfully discovered and exploited and the drilling and production technologies that have made this possible are readily applicable to FOGL’s prospects.  Most of them lie in water-depths of 600 to 1500 metres; whereas recent wells in the Gulf of Mexico have been drilled in water-depths of up to 6000 metres. Furthermore, the wells will be conventional (i.e. they are not high temperature or high pressure). Whilst the North Falklands basin drilling campaign of 1998 was not a commercial success, it demonstrated that offshore drilling operations could be effectively supported from a shorebase in the Falkland Islands.

Despite its perceived remoteness, the Falkland Islands is located between key oil and gas markets.  It is well-positioned for North and South America, South Africa and Asia.  Extensive development case modelling by FOGL based on the use of floating production, storage and offloading vessels (“FPSOs”), has been carried out using various sizes and types of discovery.  FPSOs would be able to operate effectively in the licence areas and oil would be exported by shuttle tankers. Using such a development concept, even moderate sized discoveries would be commercially viable, even at oil prices substantially less than today’s market prices. The favourable fiscal terms offered by the Falkland Islands Government and the Islands’ political stability further enhance the attractiveness of this area.

Exploration drilling is now expected to commence in 2009 and given the potential of the short-listed prospects, we believe that the chances of a commercially viable discovery have improved further.
_

FOGL shares are up 7.8% as I write. Matching GBP share price would be 22.6 (51% above current price).


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## shaunm (12 March 2008)

Thanks for the update EasternGrey1.
I was beginning to forget I had the stock
Well it looks like "bottom draw" until late this year and all will be revealed.
Cheers


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## EasternGrey1 (17 April 2008)

FYI - a new annual report has been posted on the Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL) website, dated 15 April 2008, but it appears not to have been posted in any stock exchange announcement here or on AIM. Find it at http://www.fogl.com/ - the pdf version is easier to read.

The report is much more upbeat about their prospects off the Falklands, saying
_"Our largest prospect has the potential to contain hydrocarbon reserves of over 3.5 billion barrels"_​and
_"Top 10 prospects have potential to contain hydrocarbon reserves of over 10 billion barrels"_​They also point out that the area is not particularly daunting for development, being much less deep than a lot of the Gulf of Mexico, and similar to North Sea areas off the Shetlands. They have only looked at the best 12 prospects, there are "over 90" more being kept for later, presumably rather smaller potential.

BHP are looking for a rig to start drilling in 2009.

FOGL shares have started to move up, and at current exchange rates make GBP shares worth 22.6c, ignoring all other assets except cash.

My calculations show that if there is indeed 3.5bn barrels down there, and if you value it in-situ at say $US8 per barrel, then GBP shares are heading for north of $10 (yes, that's ten dollars). Pro-rata if there are 10bn barrels, of course.

This could get quite interesting over the next 12 months or so.


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## shaunm (17 April 2008)

Hmm...very interesting. What calcs have you used to get $8 per barrel from.
3.5 to 10 bill is staggering!
I wonder what it will take to catch the eye of buyers here in the medium term?


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## ColB (17 April 2008)

Gooday Skippy, Great reading your research and evaluation on this one.  Tell me, if BHP aren't organising a drill rig until 2009 why would anyone need to get on this one if there is not much in the way of good news to come out until then.  Granted, it would be good to be in before the sp spikes but it seems to be going nowhere at the moment.  Am I missing something?  Regards Colb


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## EasternGrey1 (17 April 2008)

Good questions. $US8/bbl? I can't find any "official" way of valuing oil in the ground, so I took what seemed like a pretty conservative figure, based on long term oil prices maybe being nearer $US80 than today's price, and reckoning on a net 10% profit. I now see FOGL's presentation, also on their website, estimates £75 per FOGL share if Lorigo (the "3.5bn bbl" field) is successful, based on $50 oil. It's more conservative than my calculation, so you could take it down from $10 to about $8 to be on the safe side. Still looks like a nice profit to me.

About not buying till BHP start drilling : OK, you take the risk! The market is incredibly unpredictable at times. Shares like GBP tend to lurch up and down by large %s, but once they jump up there's no guarantee you can ever get back in at the lower price. FOGL may well publish the detailed CSEM results at any time, or BHP could announce they have a rig, or a sharemarket newsletter might tip GBP, or a couple of funds might start buying in - any one of a number of things not necessarily tied to company announcements could get a big move going. I would rather have bought in and wear the ups and downs, than sweat on whether it might suddenly jump up before I bought in.

FOGL hit an intraday low of 91.6p in January, now they're over 140p. Once an upward move gets noticed and the mo-mos get on board, who knows where it could get to, once the company has put out a number like £75.

I've finished my buying of GBP - I'm now clean out of cash - at an average price (17.8) embarrassingly above today's price, but I'm still satisfied that what I did was reasonable. Time will tell .......

PS. The map in FOGL's presentation looks awesome!


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## EasternGrey1 (30 April 2008)

Very bad news today - but read on before you dump your GBP shares!!

GBP has sold out most of its holding in Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL). From an original 14%+ of FOGL they now hold only 1.85%. I have processed all the numbers at today's exchange rate and FOGL share price, and they are as follows:

Exchange rate $A1 = 0.4744 UK£
FOGL holding 1.71m shares
FOGL share price £1.3592
Market value of GBP's FOGL holding $A4.9m
GBP's cash balance $A34.6m
Total value, ignoring GBP's other interests $A39.5m
GBP shares on issue 174.4m
Value of GBP's FOGL holding + cash = (39.5 / 174.4 =) 22.6c/share
[ETrade give shares issued = 174.4m, but I had previously been working on 192.6m. Not sure where this change has come from. At 192.6m we would be looking at GBP shares worth 20.5c]

If Lorigo (FOGL's biggest prospect) contains the 3.5bn bbls they expect, then I calculate that GBP shares will then be worth around $1.50. Still quite nice, but nothing like the $10+ that they would have been worth if GBP hadn't sold down its FOGL holding.

To me, this is all a disaster, as I had been keen for a long time to put my money into the Falklands prospects, and GBP was the only way of doing it in Australia. If anything, the GBP shares should actually move up, because they now have cash worth more than the share price, but what I really wanted was the prospect of making a massive profit not just doing quite nicely.

Such is investing, I suppose.


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## shaunm (30 April 2008)

Strange decision on face value indeed; perhaps they had a good reason. Did the news say why they decided to sell down their holding?


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## EasternGrey1 (30 April 2008)

"The increased working capital will enable the Company to progress its existing projects as well as seek other opportunities for acquisitions, joint ventures, or investments in the resources sector."

Shares up this morning, but I'm p'd off big time.


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## robs12 (16 February 2009)

Time to brush the cobwebs off this thread... (Which I notice I started some years ago now..). I sold a long time ago but have recently bought in again - looks like a very good situation to me. A quick summary:

GBP seems to have slipped under the radar for a little while – little mention on the boards to speak of. Be aware that I have a holding & hence a vested interest, so please DYOR etc.

Until recently, GBP had no booked reserves, no revenue, and have a less than spectacular history, having been involved with Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL), & with a joint venture with Woodside in Kenya which came to nothing (unless there is a successful law suit – the Woodside farm in tied them into drilling two holes, they drilled one & then backed out – GBP & other JV partner Dana Petroleum have started legal proceedings against Woodside…will be an interesting case!). 

GBP now have a 15% interest in Leighton (Texon operator - recent well flowing, more to be drilled), so a little revenue coming in.

They sold out of FOGL a little while ago (keeping a small 1.85% stake, worth approx $2.5m), and as a result have cash in the bank – considerably more than the current market cap. As at 30 June 2008, cash was $34.5m, shares in issue = 174.4m…34.5/174.4 = 19.8c per share… current SP = 14c. Cash has probably come down a little, & they are about to spend a little (read on…), but currently it appears that market cap is still significantly less than cash. 

The directors have some pedigree: Peters Taylor & Blakey are ex founders of Dana Petroleum, along with Mark Savage … so they would appear to know about the business & pulling deals together. Blakey & Taylor have been buying shares recently & hold significant stakes.

On Friday, Tower Resources (UK based exploration tiddler with some common directors to GBP, and one of only two non producing oil stocks I hold – three now, including GBP) confirmed that the Ugandan government will permit GBP to become a JV partner with them – 50% stake for costs of drilling two wells (capped at US$6.5 for the first well).
After the first drill, GBP state they will still have net cash of US16.25m, equivalent to A$25m or 14.3c per share…which is about today’s share price.

They are due to drill just to the North of HOIL/Tullow’s successful finds in the Albertine basin in Uganda. They are due to spud in March, maybe stretched into April. They are shallow wells, and in TRP’s opinion, the chance of success is high (50%). More info can be found at the TRP website & there are a couple of good research notes out there on TRP (Fox Davies & Hoodless Brennan). There are two prospects, the first targeting 100mmbbl. Tower suggests net recoverable resources for the block could be 225mmbbl. 

So…. spudding in the next couple of months (with potential for 100mmbbl+ net to GBP if field is successful), already some revenue (Leighton), market cap less than cash in bank (or roughly equal if you take off the cost of the Uganda drill), experienced & well respected directors who are buying, SP is lower here than in UK (dual listed – an arbitrage opportunity over the last few days), & they haven’t hit the radar yet…looks like potential for excellent upside with very limited downside risk  - DYOR!


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## robs12 (26 April 2009)

Any interest yet?? Some reasonable buying recently (SP now 22c rather than 14c at time of my last post), but still a long way to go IMHO. Looks like mid May spud date & who knows what may happen after that!!


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## onshow (27 April 2009)

Hi all im please to say after doing some reaserch of my own and listening to other peoples views i bought my first batch of GBP today at .225 , even though they finished lower today and i have bought at a high i dont think in the long term and short term what i pay for them as long as i have some in the kitty. I liked the look of the balance sheet and seen that the amount of cash in the bank for a small company was very encouraging and also the position of the future drill hole in uganda which should be drilled in the near future looks very promising as the company tower resources have had a success of drilling and hitting oil/gas 8 out of 8 holes that they have drilled which GBP is located near and shows very promising signs. If GBP are able to drill and find what they are looking for it will do wonders for the company. Nothings garantied in this world but as someone else stated on here , the best place to find oil is near where it has already been found !! And that is what GBP are doing!! Good luck to all share holders on a good report back in the near future.


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## BESBS Player (15 December 2009)

Decided to buy into GBP over the last few days to get set for expected drilling in late January/February;

* Drilling potential high impact Ugandan well by end of Q1 2010. (possibly late January)
* They have over $25M in the bank and a market cap of under $29M.
* Last drill reached 29.5c pre-results. Given slightly better market conditions now, and less likelihood of capital raising at these lower prices (given cash situation), looks OK.

As always, DYOR. 

Bought in GBP at 17c ave


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## BESBS Player (22 December 2009)

BESBS Player said:


> Decided to buy into GBP over the last few days to get set for expected drilling in late January/February;
> 
> * Drilling potential high impact Ugandan well by end of Q1 2010. (possibly late January)
> * They have over $25M in the bank and a market cap of under $29M.
> * Last drill reached 29.5c pre-results. Given slightly better market conditions now, and less likelihood of capital raising at these lower prices (given cash situation), looks OK.




Announcement out. Drilling rig is now booked with OGEC. Once environmental regulations are okayed, drilling scheduled for early February. I'd expect GBP to hover for a week or two until new year then hopefully we will see a late pre-spud run into January. Time shall tell.

Holding GBP at 17c


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## BESBS Player (2 January 2010)

Looks like GBP are now starting to leave the station-SP has now touched 20c  As Avivi-1 is less than 2km away from the initial drill location, GBP must believe that they narrowly missed and are confident second time around.

I suspect that the following extract might explain the confidence of the JV: 

"Since the beginning of 2006, there have been 27 wells drilled in the Albert Basin, with 26 of these wells encountering hydrocarbons."

http://www.heritageoilplc.com/uganda.cfm


Happily holding GBP at 17c :


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## Wysiwyg (2 January 2010)

BESBS Player said:


> http://www.heritageoilplc.com/uganda.cfm[/COLOR]
> 
> Happily holding GBP at 17c :



Looks as if the Ugandan fields are going to Eni.


> British oil explorer Heritage Oil (Frankfurt: A0NG6K - news) has agreed to sell petroleum exploration fields in Uganda to Italian oil company Eni (Milan: ENI.MI - news) in a deal worth up to $1.5 billion.



What's the go with this Heritage mob? Sitting on billions of barrels of oil in Kurdistan (75% to HOIL) and the share price hardly rates a mention.


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## PubLunchMan (3 January 2010)

GBP holds a 25% interest in an Ugandan oil play with potential reserves of up to 100M barrels. Importantly, Heritage/Tullow Oil boast a 100% success record in their neighboring Block 1 which promises multi-billion barrel potential.

GBP's Avivi-1 is set to spud by the 1st February- environmental approvals and rig hire contract soon to be announced...

*DRILLING WITHIN THE ALBERT BASIN*

The Albert Basin is part of the Albert Graben which is an onshore basin and straddles the border between the D.R. Congo and Uganda. 

"Last September the Canadian exploration company Heritage Oil Ltd. announced that it had discovered the country's largest oil deposit in the Albert Basin. Experts estimate that up to 2 billion barrels of crude oil reserves lie beneath Lake Albert."

http://www.glgroup.com/News/Heritag...ead-exploration-efforts-in-Uganda.-34918.html







*HIGH PROBABILITY OF COMMERCIAL SUCCESS*

Heritage Oil and Tullow Oil have experienced extraordinary success in Block 1 and Block 3A: 

"As at January 2009 18 exploration and appraisal wells have been successfully drilled in the basin since 2006. All of the wells have encountered oil bearing reservoirs and the two wells drilled in Block 3A have production tested at over 13,000 bopd.

Since the beginning of 2006, there have been 27 wells drilled in the Albert Basin, with 26 of these wells encountering hydrocarbons."

http://www.heritageoilplc.com/uganda.cfm

"Geochemistry field surveys have confirmed that there is almost certainly an active, mature hydrocarbon source and migration process taking place which substantially reduces remaining exploration risk. This has always been the main area of risk for exploration in the EA5 area so is very encouraging. Moreover, the samples taken have similar characteristics to surface seeps present in other areas of the Albertine Graben. 

Some considerable encouragement can be drawn from the successful and continuing exploration programmes of Tullow Oil and Heritage Oil in Blocks 2 and 3 to the south of Tower's Block 5. Exploration drilling in Block 1 which is adjacent to Block 5 has also yielded a first discovery confirming a northward trend of prospectivity."

http://www.towerresources.co.uk/index.php?page=Uganda

*DRILL LOCATION*

Uganda: Avivi-1 Well Location:






*DEVELOPMENT OF UGANDA's OIL INDUSTRY*

"Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Eni SpA has the funds to support the development of UgandaÃ¢â‚¬™s oil industry, a government minister said today, indicating ItalyÃ¢â‚¬™s biggest energy company may succeed in its $1.5 billion acquisition of Heritage Oil Plc assets.

Tullow is targeting Ugandan output of between 5,000 and 10,000 barrels a day by 2012, rising to 150,000 barrels a day within five years."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aF0AkdyBDi5E

JB


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## Georgeb (14 January 2010)

this is definitely a good buy at these levels...i feel like this will run in the next few weeks...great potential but lets and wait to hear about the spudding...


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## BESBS Player (18 January 2010)

Great post, PLM.

Explains why I am hanging in with GBP. Drilling news should not be too far away.


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## Wysiwyg (19 January 2010)

What are the chances of Global hitting something decent? In the right area but on the wrong spot? Heads or tails in this game I'm afraid.

Shane's response to the ASX scrutiny was as follows ... and I assume early February is for the approval and not the drilling to commence. 

""""""""
a. Tower Resources had advised it has signed a contract for a land rig to drill the second well, Avivi-1;
b. That drilling would begin once full environmental approval and consent to drill has been received, likely to be early February 2010; and
c. The Company has elected to maintain its option to earn a 25% interest in EA5 by funding 25% of the cost of the second well. 
"""""""" 



Wysiwyg said:


> Looks as if the Ugandan fields are going to Eni.



Well in fact Tullow have exercised their right to block the sale of the Ugandan oil reserves to ENI. 


> On Monday January 18, 2010, 11:18 am EST
> 
> LONDON (AP) -- Britain's Tullow Oil PLC said Monday it will exercise its preemptive right to buy 50 percent of two Ugandan oil fields from Heritage Oil PLC for $1.5 billion, potentially blocking a bid by Italy's Eni SpA.
> 
> ...


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## BESBS Player (15 February 2010)

Nice to GBP rising back to 18c as we approach a drilling announcement. If news of drilling comes soon, I'm hopeful for a small SP spike as we are dealing with a 100 mmbl potential target here. If news is delayed for another fortnight, we might see a retrace.

Bring on drilling... 


Holding GBP


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## BESBS Player (15 February 2010)

News is out on the ASX. Avivi-1 has spudded on Feb.13.
Approx. 2-3 weeks until final results. Given the potential target is 100mmbl, assuming that we have a decent run on the general market, I'd be hoping that GBP might run a little (maybe somewhere between low-mid 20c range) without results. Time shall tell as always.


Disc. Holding GBP at 18c


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## maxmac (23 February 2010)

Things are afoot. Rumours in London of oil. Have the people on the rig been naughty. All will be revealed shortly.. Cash backing 14/15 cents. If they hit what they think they have this will go psycho. Do not believe me DYOR.

Cheers
Maxmac


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## zweep64 (28 February 2010)

oil to dust. maybe third time lucky:
Will they temp a third duster or spend there cash somewhere else or look for a new jv as tower may be badluck. still holding haven,t much money invested.


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## Slipperz (28 February 2010)

zweep64 said:


> oil to dust. maybe third time lucky:
> Will they temp a third duster or spend there cash somewhere else or look for a new jv as tower may be badluck. still holding haven,t much money invested.




I got burned with the first Ugandan duster and didn't go back for a second try.

Thankfully!


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## BESBS Player (4 March 2010)

Yes Zweep & Slipperz, a disappointing result.

I played my usual BESBS game. Little gained there either on this one. Apart from briefly hitting 20c, it never really left the station.

I'm out square on it - disappointing from what I had hoped.
Unless the market changes considerably, I'd probably not try again here.


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## stretchie (13 September 2010)

OIl flows released and further drilling planned. May be worth a punt as a BESBS play as they will be drilling in a week, however I'm still holding from last time (in at 18.5c). Might not run as far as last couple of times given the last 2 were dusters. 

BUT (!) this will be in a different, proven oil producing area. With cash backing at 20c, we should at least see a run to that on this latest drilling venture.


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## springhill (24 July 2012)

*MC - $31m*
SP - 15.5c
Shares - 199m
Options - Nil
*Cash - $24m*

*Trading Update*
Global Petroleum Limited (AIM: GBP, ASX: GBP), the oil and gas exploration company presently focused on emerging plays in southern Africa, announces an update in relation to its projects offshore Namibia and offshore Juan de Nova.

Highlights
● Namibia - completion of delayed interpretation of 2D seismic
o Fulfils Global’s work obligations for the initial phase of the Petroleum Agreement which runs to December 2014
o Decision to seek farm-in partner to progress the exploration programme, commencing with 3D seismic

● Juan de Nova partners complete reprocessing of old 2D seismic and now plans to shoot new 2D campaign

● Both Namibia and Juan de Nova as petroleum provinces are the subject of increasing interest from large international oil and gas companies

● Marketing of working interest in Eagle Ford producing properties still ongoing

● Strong balance sheet as basis for future growth - new opportunities being actively reviewed

The Board continues to review opportunities for other acquisitions, joint ventures, or investments in the resources sector in order to enhance shareholder value.

This is a seriously cashed up little oil spec, with comparitively few shares on issue next to some tiddlers that have a billion shares and no cash.
June's quarterly will have to be inspected closely when released.
Will update at that time.


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## Tumbarumba (28 September 2018)

Two exploration blocks held offshore Namibia. Hot exploration area currently with billions  of barrels of oil trapped. Chariot Oil (LSE- CHAR) to spud with Ocean Rig Poseidon(I love that name) tomorrow in adjacent block .  29% chance of success forecast by "experts",  40 days forecast to reach target zone (which probably means by 20th Oct. SI's and insiders will know what results to expect and CHAR sp will start to move) GBP is tightly held and success by CHAR will multiply its current $7m market cap.


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