# Paid services that provide medium/long term share recommendations?



## ottg (31 January 2015)

Hello everyone

Instead of doing all the fundamental and technical analysis myself can anyone recommend a paid service that provide a quality list of ASX shares for med/long term investments.
Criteria for paid service:
a. Proven track record of 10 years minimum with regular published results
b. Provide sound reasoning and supporting arguments for selection
c. Quality of shares based on sound fundamental principals - must be open about values used
d. Timing of shares based on sound technical analysis - must be open about techniques 
e. Use pro-priority algorithms that can be explained in layman terms
f. Must provide enough information & case studies that will enable me to build confidence in their services
g. Regular updates

Regards
ottg


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## Faramir (31 January 2015)

*Re: Can you recommend paid services that provide shares quality lists?*

Hi Ottg

I am going to say something you might not like - anyway I am such a beginner, that anything I say may not be worth much. There are no "short cuts" to picking quality stocks. If there was (plus if I had enough money - I would have taken them already). Time required for someone like me to research the following research companies I am going to list - is time I should have used to research a particular stock/company. I am not saying that these research companies are good or bad - I just have no idea. There are a number of posts on some of these companies. Some people get lots of benefits from them. I use two 'free trials period' with two of these companies but I didn't get that much out of it. This forum has much more. The hard part is finding time to read posts, even some old ones. (Even harder for me since I am a slow reader and I take a long time to compose a post.)

Here is the list I found from an Australia Financial Review article, I can't remember when???
1): Wise Owl wise-owl.com
2): The Motley Fool www.fool.com.au
3): The Bull.com.au www.thebull.com.au
4): Lincoln Indicators www.lincolnindicators.com.au
5): FNArea www.fnarena.com
6): Fat Prophets www.fatprophets.com.au
7): Stocks In Value www.stocksinvalue.com.au
8): Skaffold Stock Research www.skaffold.com

* 9): Under The Radar Report - www.undertheradar.com.au
* Under the Radar was not in the article but it pops up all the time.

Use the search function in here to research these companies, I am running out of time to post up the links for you. You will get only opinions - a wide range of them.

Going to someone and asking them to say "This stock is great" sounds attractive - then you can save time not trying to learn basics, understand reports, research business prospects, etc. I have a feeling that they might be on both sides of the trade. Unfortunately I said to myself that I have to learn the hard way because I do not have enough money to get someone else to recommend a stock to me.

*******************************

I am going to side track this thread just for the benefit of helping your education. These threads will help you more than some "research company". (Sorry Joe, I know I should stay on topic.)

Present Value of Future Cash Flows is an excellent thread but I am truly struggling trying to get my head around the first 13 or so pages - I am SO behind.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=26

This is a great thread for starters but I have to re-read it. Again I am so behind
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14370

Anything tech/a is GOLD (or should I say Platinium)
Here are some people I really admire, even though some of them have fierce debates between themselves. (I should have listed more like DeepState - he knows so much.)
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28819

It is one thing to ask questions but it is a lot more to try to answer them. Especially if you are writing something that you know that it won't get some agreement on.

******************************

Back to topic. I hope my list is a good start for you. My knowledge is roughly 5-10% of where I want to know. Being a slow learner means that I have to be more patient. Good luck in finding a good research company.

Lots of more experienced posters will give you much more input than I ever could.

PS: It helps to have thick skin here.


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## ottg (31 January 2015)

*Re: Can you recommend paid services that provide shares quality lists?*

Hi Faramir

Thank you for your great reply and yes I do agree with every part you mentioned. There is no short cuts however it helps to listen to others that already have traveled the road.

Many years ago I was part of an overseas investment group that evaluated and tested recommendations from various advisory services. One particular investment & advisory group had an unique search algorithm. We worked on it by extensive back testing and obtain good results. After paper testing we used our own money in the market and still obtained good results. Due to propriety algorithms, data downloads and extensive data manipulation you had to use their software.

However they also had various reports available. Because we developed confidence in their results I then subscribed to their paid report services which served we well for more than 10 years. However that service is not available for Australia or USA. 

This is the 'short cut' I'm hoping to hear about. Long term investors that have confidence in a service they use and will recommend.

Any more ideas are most welcome!


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## tinhat (31 January 2015)

*Re: Can you recommend paid services that provide shares quality lists?*

I subscribe to Lincoln's stock doctor. It's a good service.


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## TPI (1 February 2015)

*Re: Can you recommend paid services that provide shares quality lists?*



ottg said:


> Hi Faramir
> 
> Thank you for your great reply and yes I do agree with every part you mentioned. There is no short cuts however it helps to listen to others that already have traveled the road.
> 
> ...




What was the name of this investment and advisory group you previously used, if you could name it we maybe able to let you know of comparable providers here in Aus.


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## ottg (1 February 2015)

tinhat said:


> I subscribe to Lincoln's stock doctor. It's a good service.




Please be so kind to elaborate: How long have you been using them? Do you use their reports exclusively or in conjunction with other reports? On a scale of 1-10 your performance success rate and satisfaction rate using their reports? Do you find that over time their recommendations are sound and make sense? Do you find that their recommendations do not change rapidly over a long time?



TPI said:


> What was the name of this investment and advisory group you previously used, if you could name it we maybe able to let you know of comparable providers here in Aus.




They are _RCIS Investment Services_ based in South Africa. http://www.rcis.co.za/


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## christianrenel (10 February 2015)

I have used Stock Doctor and found the software helpful in giving me investment ideas, producing watchlists and putting together back testing on trading ideas.

The stocks which they recommend are mainly in the top ASX200, so they look at sold companies which have performed well overtime, and give the consenus on the price.

I found the software are good starting point, for further research.


Kind Regards 


Christianrenel


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## ottg (11 February 2015)

Thank you christianrenel. I will look them up, see if they offer a free trail and check out the detail.

Thanks


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## Boggo (11 February 2015)

*Re: Can you recommend paid services that provide shares quality lists?*



tinhat said:


> I subscribe to Lincoln's stock doctor. It's a good service.




It is a great service imo, they keep you out of the crap stocks and they are only a phone call away.

I use their filter function to narrow down the market to about 480 stocks that I then use in my daily and weekly scan.

Admittedly a bull market at the moment but this is their calculation of my current holdings status.


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## tech/a (12 February 2015)

Don't know that you could go past The Chartist.
His 4 methods are powering along
Cheap as well.


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## pavilion103 (12 February 2015)

tech/a said:


> Don't know that you could go past The Chartist.
> His 4 methods are powering along
> Cheap as well.





+1
I'm a subscriber.


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## ottg (13 February 2015)

Boggo said:


> It is a great service imo, they keep you out of the crap stocks and they are only a phone call away.
> 
> I use their filter function to narrow down the market to about 480 stocks that I then use in my daily and weekly scan.




Thank you for your confirmation!



tech/a said:


> Don't know that you could go past The Chartist.
> His 4 methods are powering along
> Cheap as well.




I already bought and read the book "Unholy grails" and a subscription trail is on the charts for me

My current reading is Roger Montgomery's book "Value . able" My risk profile aligns well with his strategy and mindset of quality shares based on intrinsic value. 

I have signed up with Morningstar and Huntley's newsletter. This enables me to get an overview of the ASX market and different opinions of commentators.

Please share any other suggestions.


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## tech/a (13 February 2015)

ottg said:


> Thank you for your confirmation!
> 
> 
> 
> ...





All very good 
But how are you going to implement 
ANY of this .

Opinions are like arm pits we all have them.
Experts who don't APPLY their methods aren't experts----simply commentators.

YOU have to take charge of YOUR financial future
Commentators are looking after theirs!


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## ottg (13 February 2015)

tech/a said:


> All very good
> But how are you going to implement ANY of this .
> 
> Opinions are like arm pits we all have them.
> ...




Just briefly on how I have done it before: refer to graphs here: http://www.rcis.co.za/sharefinder5-desktop/ I have a thorough understanding in how quality of companies gets calculated and now seeks a similar local tool that can make it easier.

a. Use the quality list (fundamental analysis) and select those with the best ratings (green). Select 8-10 shares
b. Confirm that there 3, 5, 10 year equity growth, dividend yield growth are exponential etc
    - Determine position size (balance portfolio), entry point, exit point, positive expectancy and total risk value
c. Using Fourier analysis graph (technical analysis) to see when is the bets time to purchase 
d. Look for confirmation by using the mass & velocity trend indicators
e. Then finally I use a moving 90-day average just to make sure the trend is significant.
f. Never sell - but when market turns check if there is a drop in the Quality list rating. If so then consider disposing or else sell in 30% tranches to buy back later when market is more favorable.
g. Check what other "reputable" market commentators are saying BUT don't react on it!!!!

A slow process, no excitement but solid. However I have no idea which local services will give me confidence.

I will say more about this later once I have confidence that I have found what I'm looking for.

I'm eager to learn from your experiences - thank you!


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## Triathlete (13 February 2015)

tech/a said:


> Experts who don't APPLY their methods aren't experts----simply commentators.
> 
> YOU have to take charge of YOUR financial future
> Commentators are looking after theirs!





+1  Agree totally!


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## Faramir (13 February 2015)

ottg said:


> g. Check what other "reputable" market commentators are saying BUT don't react on it!!!!



I either agree or the trying to understand everything said above. Point g, either shows confirmation that 'yay - I got the stock before the commentors promoted it to the masses' or 'missed out, the masses will buy it and push the price up. Put it on a watchlist if I agree and wait until a dip happens. See if my research confirms what they are saying and do ai have money to invest in something that was promoted a while back.' Most times, I just miss out. CCP, CSL, SRX (is that Sirtex??) and CZZ(honey) are countless examples.
VED and MMS are 2 examples of something I brought many months after the 'experts' raved about it. One 'RM expert' even bragged about selling VED in September. This made me even more eager to hold onto it.



> I'm eager to learn from your experiences - Thank you!



I should be saying this the most.

I still don't understand Fourier Analysis and I am waiting for DeepState to reply to your Fourier Anaylsis thread.

How are you finding the book "Value.able". The commonsense and Buffet quotes are fantastic to me. The tables of numbers and the valuaution methods confused me even though it was supposed to be simple. Maybe that's just me (or there's another thread on this book-typing via my iPhone, I'm too lazy to find the link for you') When I have time, I might re read it. I am very sure that there are other books to read. The Intelligent Investor is going well for me because my knowledge is very simple. After that, I am reading a charting book.

I hope more will reply to your above post and add more valuable information. Thank you.


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## ottg (14 February 2015)

Thank you for all the replies so far. Lincoln's Stock doctor will also be on my bucket list



Faramir said:


> How are you finding the book "Value.able".




My view: You have to read it in the right contexts and see where it fits your own strategy. Trading short term often provides much higher returns than value investment.

Holy Grails & Valua.able are two total different approaches and requires different mindsets. 

Holy Grails = speculative & trading. Higher risk and higher returns/losses. However risks can be managed using money management and risk management techniques i.e expectancy, position sizing, exits etc. Well suited for highly volatile markets as you need many trades to overcome losing streaks. Only interested in equity growth looking at favorable patterns. The key here is to look which trends already occurred and not try to predict what is to occur.

Valua.able = investment is long term in quality shares with solid intrinsic value and sound financials and debt structures i.e fundamentals. Dividend growth is a good indicator how healthy the company is but cannot be looked in isolation. Also often the price is much higher than the true value and if you are going to wait you may end up waiting for ever. Thus use other methods to get a more realistic way to determine the value of a company. Good performance is also important but its a given if the share has real value. Also there is a tendency that higher value shares are less volatile.

Can I learn and use some techniques from trading to protect the downside of my long term investments. Yes, traders are expert in protecting the trade downside by cutting their losses and setting tight exists.

Note the point is not about trading or investing - thus my posting in long term investing forum.


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## tech/a (14 February 2015)

ottg said:


> Holy Grails = speculative & trading. Higher risk and higher returns/losses. However risks can be managed using money management and risk management techniques i.e expectancy, position sizing, exits etc. Well suited for highly volatile markets as you need many trades to overcome losing streaks. Only interested in equity growth looking at favorable patterns. The key here is to look which trends already occurred and not try to predict what is  to occur
> 
> .





I've read some un informed posts in the time I've been here.

This one is a clear leader.


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## ottg (14 February 2015)

tech/a said:


> I've read some un informed posts in the time I've been here.
> 
> This one is a clear leader.




A bit off topic - uninformed yes, but that is why I read the book "Holy Grails''  as I have no experience in momentum trading and perhaps neither the risk profile to learn using my money. That said I'm very keen on his Growth Portfolio method but surely 150+ trades per year is more than 5-minutes a day for a novice. To automate his recommendations is a great idea but again may take too long for a novice.

Tech/a what method or approach will you recommend for a novice starting out who prefers to use a paid service that provides medium/long term share recommendations? In your view what is the best way to build confidence in such system in the shortest time?


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