# AUN - Austar United



## RichKid (21 November 2005)

Been watching AUN and I think the time is right for an entry, I like these rect. 

Strong uptrend, then retracement and consolidation, two support levels have stood up. Recent signal to enter has been the high volume days on the up and light volume on down days with a small curving move away from the support level at 1.15, currently 1.17 so a tight stop is easily employed. I see more support at 1.12- these are both low risk entries imo if you look at it as part of a continuing pattern. I bought today so you can see if I lose or win, nothing I can do about it now but study my trade- putting the info up here for discussion, we may all learn something. Target upside is a break beyond the resistance at 1.28 with measure being the height of the current rectangular pattern, so big reward if this is correct.

Here's the chart, anyone else hold? I like the fundamental prospects of this co too, tipped to be taken over with the media cross ownership laws due for a shakeup. Big turnaround financially in the last two years.

Note the multiple instances of support at the 1.15 support line. The arrows in the volume graph in the second chart point to the recent high vol on up days.


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## RichKid (24 November 2005)

*Re: AUN Austar United*

That lower border is holding up very well (touch wood!), great volume (a few big parcels) again but prices must hold to show the support is up (accumulation) and not down.
Nothing to do but watch the stop now. If this holds then the next move is to the top of the range and beyond....."....to infinity and beyond". (fyi, that's buzz lightyear)


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## GreatPig (24 November 2005)

*Re: AUN Austar United*

I bought some a few days ago. It's still at the same price I paid for it, but I'm hoping for it to break on upwards soon.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (24 November 2005)

*Re: AUN Austar United*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> I bought some a few days ago. It's still at the same price I paid for it, but I'm hoping for it to break on upwards soon.
> 
> Cheers,
> GP




I've been trading these patterns (only a few so far- box consolidations/ranging) and find them easy to spot. Like large ledges. Also been reading about swing trading a bit more and practising it here, live.

Let's see how it goes gp. I expect that once the IR stuff is over they'll have a go at cross media ownership, then eyes will be on these little profitable gems imo. Until then, the chart is my friend.


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## keepitreal (24 November 2005)

*Re: AUN Austar United*

technically, Its got resistance at the 1.25 level..

but it is showing bullish divergance on the stochastic osc..

fundamentally, its going into broadband and has a monopoly on its telly services..  (why did they sell the wimax spectrum to unwired???) anyway it got a good write up in the smart investor mag.


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## phoenixrising (24 November 2005)

*Re: AUN Austar United*



> why did they sell the wimax spectrum to unwired???




My understanding is Unwired will do the Cities, and AUN the regoinal areas
Joint venture


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## RichKid (14 December 2005)

*Re: AUN Austar United*

trading halt continues, looks like Malone's Liberty One has control. Special trades for about $1 and $1.15. The distribution of shares to international investors will see a broader holding and maybe more foreign interest- but lower liquidity? Wonder what's on the cards now??? Obviously AUN is going to be an important part of the future media landscape.

Lots of private stakes being cashed in, signals the top of the market? (eg ERA, HDR, LHG and now AUN).


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## GreatPig (14 December 2005)

*Re: AUN Austar United*

Sold mine for $1.25 yesterday.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (15 December 2005)

*Re: AUN Austar United*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Sold mine for $1.25 yesterday.
> 
> Cheers,
> GP




Hey GP,
You did well GP. I expected this after the failed breakout but couldn't know of the trading halt or share sale so I couldn't bail out in time. Will get out asap. These things happen. The price has held up relatively well, that recent retest of the highs was on low volume so I wasn't surprised, except vol is not that big an indicator in for this stock imo, except in accumulation/distribution areas, not when trending.


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## GreatPig (15 December 2005)

*Re: AUN Austar United*

RichKid,

I treated this as a parabolic, which Guppy mentions a lot in his newsletters. Exit is signalled by a break to the right of the curve.

(AmiBroker doesn't have a tool for parabolic curves, so in this chart I've just estimated it using straight lines)

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (15 December 2005)

*Re: AUN Austar United*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> RichKid,
> 
> I treated this as a parabolic, which Guppy mentions a lot in his newsletters. Exit is signalled by a break to the right of the curve.
> 
> ...




I traded the ranging pattern but still should have got out earlier. I may have read that last bit of price action as a handle of some sort too but volume would have made me exit. Still, I knew what to do just didn't carry it out in time.


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## RichKid (30 January 2006)

Well, that's the end of that pattern, crashed through support and still going strong today as it approaches $1, no sign of slowing down, big down days, only good sign is volume is high but not extremely high. It all slowed down after that gap was closed mid-way in the box.


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## redandgreen (30 January 2006)

what to do? 
Should I buy more?   
your opinion would be appreciated richkid


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## RichKid (30 January 2006)

redandgreen said:
			
		

> what to do?
> Should I buy more?
> your opinion would be appreciated richkid




Sorry mate, I'm not qualified to give financial advice, please read the ASF code of conduct and posting guidelines. I really don't have anything to add to the comments above, apart from that there was a recent announcement.

Basically, you need to take a proactive and independant approach to making investment decisions, our views here on ASF are mere opinions, not specific recommendations. Also note that I'm a novice (although not an absolute novice) and I am yet to be profitable year on year so you'd be better off on your own. I've only lost money on AUN btw.

Feel free to let us know what you come up with when researching AUN (with the code of conduct and posting guidelines to guide you on how to post) and some of us may comment, the subsequent discussion may be beneficial to you.

Hope you enjoy your time here on ASF!


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## Odysseus (4 February 2006)

There are a few weak and also some good points about AUN, in my view. A weakness is that management has been able to enrich itself unduly (to my mind) as a result of the fact that a major event recently resulted in a large number of shares coming to be vested. But this shouldn't do permanent damage. The company is aiming for 30% of its potential market. It is at present only at just over 20%, but of late has not been making much headway, as a result of difficult retail conditions. This too should be a temporary hiccup, for almost certainly the 30% - or indeed more - is realistic. The stock has been tackled hard as a result of recent events, but probably has decent prospects, I feel, even though it will continue to be volatile. Of course, it is priced for growth (not income), so that means that any disappointment leads to a drop in price - also encouraged at present by a general impulse, in the market, towards a "correction". These are just observations. They cannot and should not be taken to suggest that  the stock should be either bought or sold. I am not an invesstment adviser.


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## scsl (6 September 2006)

Seeing as Austar is paying its capital return on the 20 September, I thought I'd ask, why is it that they are using $202 million in debt to fund it? 

I think this borrowing to pay out capital returns and more commonly, dividends is not an unusual thing to do. For example, Telstra has paid out some of its dividends through the help of debt funding. Why do companies even contemplate doing this? Or is there a good reason why it is done?


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## Dutchy3 (21 September 2007)

I'm sort of highlighting this one ....

Move north is on the cards, yet the move is a little uninspiring at the mo.

Perhaps Monday close or Tuesday next week might provide more confirmation


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## CanOz (21 September 2007)

hmmm, is that 'Guppy lines' or something similar your playing with Dutchy?

I'll have to submit a rainbow chart now.

Cheers,


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## Dutchy3 (21 September 2007)

Yep and by just using a line chart instead of candles I'm seeing the pattern set ups days before the candles used to pop out at me.

The blue MA is something else I need to remind me that trends actually end and reinforce that I need to actually sell out of my positions to lock in the profits.

I allowed myself to get squeezed on the recent correction. Every single position I had was in profit and yet as my timeframe trend ended I continued to hold until my leverage started working against me. Lost 30% of my capital very quickly


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## Dutchy3 (24 September 2007)

Better day today and enough confirmation for me. Long towards the closed of the day ... Volume kick a few days ago also can be a good sign


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## Dutchy3 (7 October 2007)

AUN moved well over the week and a second LONG position taken. 170 now looks the short term resistance with a CLOSE below 163 looked upon very unfavourably ....


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## TheIceMan (21 February 2008)

Dutchy - do you still own these ? Just wondering what your thoughts are, if you still hold them. Looks like it needs a spark to get past the resistance of $1.60 before it runs again.


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## TheIceMan (18 March 2008)

No news from Dutchy so he obviously doesn't hold anymore.

I'm curious to hear from anyone who has an opinion on this stock. More to the point, why has it crashed in the last few weeks ? I've been sratching my head trying to find a reason apart from the usual "market is down", etc, etc

It's in a downward trend and I can't see any light at the end of the tunnel. Everytime, I think it's at the bottom, it goes lower.


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## moXJO (19 March 2008)

TheIceMan said:


> No news from Dutchy so he obviously doesn't hold anymore.
> 
> I'm curious to hear from anyone who has an opinion on this stock. More to the point, why has it crashed in the last few weeks ? I've been sratching my head trying to find a reason apart from the usual "market is down", etc, etc
> 
> It's in a downward trend and I can't see any light at the end of the tunnel. Everytime, I think it's at the bottom, it goes lower.




Debt levels and expenses maybe. I don’t think the Quarterly report was that good when you looked at the figures. Possibly the potential of a slump in the economy will have an effect on subscription retention.

Just a warning I'm taking wild stabs here and I'm not a fundamental.


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## eddyeagle (28 October 2009)

Anyone got an opinion on Austar? 

Fat Prophets have recommended it, and it seems to be trending up nicely, but a quick look at the figures revealed a lot of debt!

Thoughts?


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## Tekwrek (23 February 2011)

eddyeagle said:


> Anyone got an opinion on Austar?
> 
> Fat Prophets have recommended it, and it seems to be trending up nicely, but a quick look at the figures revealed a lot of debt!
> 
> Thoughts?



No idea on debt but has rose nearly 20% in 2 weeks.


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## sammy84 (23 February 2011)

Tekwrek said:


> No idea on debt but has rose nearly 20% in 2 weeks.




http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...head-to-colorado/story-e6frg9if-1226010355216


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## Tekwrek (23 February 2011)

sammy84 said:


> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...head-to-colorado/story-e6frg9if-1226010355216




Thnx Sammy, very interesting.


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