# Will we or won't we?



## Glen48 (8 May 2011)

Will we have a 1930 style depression or not , will it be better or worse than 1930.
 In the '30 they had the dust bowl to make things worse , we have China expanding contracting,, Japan sinking, USA, Sub Prime, Gold Silver, Terror, High Fuel, global warming, Food proces, Inflation, House prices tanking, DOW continue to set a new high or tank, Interest rates, un-employment, Radio active polution, Muni Bonds, Jukian Gikkard in a defacto relationship with Bob Brown, OBL dead and Alive.

 Maybe do a poll?


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## easylikesunday (8 May 2011)

*Re: Will we or won't we*



Glen48 said:


> Will we have a 1930 style depression or not , will it be better or worse than 1930.
> In the '30 they had the dust bowl to make things worse , we have China expanding contracting,, Japan sinking, USA, Sub Prime, Gold Silver, Terror, High Fuel, global warming, Food proces, Inflation, House prices tanking, DOW continue to set a new high or tank, Interest rates, un-employment, Radio active polution, Muni Bonds, Jukian Gikkard in a defacto relationship with Bob Brown, OBL dead and Alive.
> 
> Maybe do a poll?




Im pretty happy at the moment.

Live your life, dont worry about dying.

Head upto Nimbin, buy a few cookies and forget whatever is happening around you


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## Smurf1976 (8 May 2011)

Glen48 said:


> Will we have a 1930 style depression or not , will it be better or worse than 1930.
> In the '30 they had the dust bowl to make things worse , we have China expanding contracting,, Japan sinking, USA, Sub Prime, Gold Silver, Terror, High Fuel, global warming, Food proces, Inflation, House prices tanking, DOW continue to set a new high or tank, Interest rates, un-employment, Radio active polution, Muni Bonds, Jukian Gikkard in a defacto relationship with Bob Brown, OBL dead and Alive.
> 
> Maybe do a poll?



A long list of rats in the room there but you've missed the elephant.

Energy. Specifically liquid fuels.

If we end up with a volume constraint on liquid fuel supply then that's going to make GDP growth globally very, very difficult unless/until some radical new technologies are not simply developed, but actually rolled out. Growth in one area will only work in the context of contraction in another if the size of the pie starts to shrink. 

Electric vehicles etc? All well and good to be developing technologies, but how many electric aircraft do Qantas or Virgin actually have flying right now? How many of the trucks that Toll owns actually run on something other than diesel fuel? Which cars at my local Toyota / Holden / Ford dealership don't need oil-based fuel to run? 

Technology is all well and good, but we're not set up to even slightly deal with contracting oil supply in the near term, and the odds are that we won't be until after it's happened. In the meantime, we get a nasty recession (globally) at best. More likely, the message gets lost amidst the economic turmoil and we end up stuck in a rut for quite a while.

That's my guess. Oil is a physical commodity, not a paper one like currencies etc. If we're going to have a major economic problem then that's the most likely trigger in my opinion, simply because it's (1) reasonably likely and (2) unable to be effectively addressed in the short term. You can't print oil...


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## kitehigh (8 May 2011)

Smurf1976 said:


> A long list of rats in the room there but you've missed the elephant.
> 
> Energy. Specifically liquid fuels.
> 
> ...




Totally agree, Oil is everything.

I just can't see anything replacing it at the level that is required to maintain the current economic system let alone any expansion.  Maybe they do have something that will replace our reliance on oil, I truly hope so but I'm not convinced at this stage that it is all going to end well.


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## burglar (8 May 2011)

kitehigh said:


> Totally agree, Oil is everything.
> 
> I just can't see anything replacing it at the level that is required to maintain the current economic system let alone any expansion.  Maybe they do have something that will replace our reliance on oil, I truly hope so but I'm not convinced at this stage that it is all going to end well.




Liquified coal!

But hang on ... that will bring peak coal forward a few centuries ...

Mass extinction anyone?? !!


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## tothemax6 (8 May 2011)

My vote: no depression. FDR is dead .


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## Smurf1976 (8 May 2011)

burglar said:


> Liquified coal!
> 
> But hang on ... that will bring peak coal forward a few centuries ...
> 
> Mass extinction anyone?? !!



Technology is great in the long term certainly. 

But if someone starts a war (or there's a major natural disaster) in Saudi Arabia tonight then we've got absolutely no Plan B other than to watch chaos unfold and the global economy fall in a heap big time. 

It's like saying that we always knew the drought in South-East Australia was going to end. Of course it would rain sometime, but knowing that wasn't much use when the dams were already dry.


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## RandR (9 May 2011)

Smurf1976 said:


> Technology is great in the long term certainly.
> 
> But if someone starts a war (or there's a major natural disaster) in Saudi Arabia tonight then we've got absolutely no Plan B other than to watch chaos unfold and the global economy fall in a heap big time.
> 
> It's like saying that we always knew the drought in South-East Australia was going to end. Of course it would rain sometime, but knowing that wasn't much use when the dams were already dry.




I think people interested in this thread or debate should go read the report from jeremy grantham posted in the "age of scarcity' thread, which is just below this one.

but anyway, yes, it's all scary stuff. 

All just my opinion but ultimately the key to humanities continuing/stabilizing/avoiding mass death

... is energy, ultimately the greatest source of energy we have or ever will have on earth ... is the sun ... we need to harness it, in what shape or form is anybody's guess. Photovoltaics and thermal are in there infancy, imo the continuing progression of these and other yet to be developed techs are our future.

But whatever doomsday scenario you can play out, ultimately it pays to be a citizen and resident in a country like Australia. I think its a pretty sure guarantee that we have and will continue to have lives/wealth etc, far far greater then the majority of the rest of the planet. So enjoy !


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## Caveman (9 May 2011)

If we do truly end up in a 1930`s style depression it`ll be fun,we will all just get jobs as street performers or playing in bands.


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## Julia (9 May 2011)

Caveman said:


> If we do truly end up in a 1930`s style depression it`ll be fun,.



Maybe go and talk to a few people who actually experienced the 1930's depression.
Their memories of desperation might dispel any notion of it being fun.


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## Caveman (9 May 2011)

I hardly think we will end up in a 1930`s style depression.
If the crap truly does hit the fan,like suggested in these alarmist threads its more likely we will end up in a wasteland like in the Mad max movies.


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## Glen48 (9 May 2011)

_The Grapes of Wrath is an  excellent movie with Henry Fonda showing the dust bowl and the depression they was luky the dust bowl helped fuel the depression but nothing like we have done out of greed and stupidity from the elite.
The only think holding up Australia is China, the banks are on the verge of getting a hand out from you and other taxpayers, housing is loosing its foundations, retail is between the legs of the dog and running away, we use to have a 2 speed economy now its some in over drive most in slo mo or reverse.

A lot are on the outside looking in and drooling at what some are getting.

Me I am sure 1930 repeat is on the way and should arrive about 2012 and stick around for  long long time._


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## kingcarmleo (10 May 2011)

We are in a really strange position atm, I have read articles from a number of so called "experts" who all write conflicting content. Personally I think we will be fine and start a downswing somewhere around 2020. Assuming 2012 doesn't happen


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## Caveman (12 May 2011)

Glen48 said:


> _
> A lot are on the outside looking in and drooling at what some are getting.
> _



_

The grass is always greener on the other side,I mean you guys are allowed to go fishing with dynamite,I`d love to do that!
Or is that Indonesia?_


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