# A possible oil rally?



## Naked shorts (21 November 2008)

http://oiltradersblog.blogspot.com/2008/11/crude-oil-heading-into-severe-oversold.html

So oil has nudged $47, Can we expect to see a rally soon?


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## cogs (21 November 2008)

Would be nice! It has to bottom soon, but then I thought 57 may have been the bottom when it was mid sixties.

Personally I have been gaving a little fun shorting the market, albeit following closely with stops for the turn around.

It really needs to de-couple from wall street.

I do wonder if it will remain relatively low to remain competitive with alternative energy sources. Some of the big oil guns are sinking big $ into green energy now.

Conventional thinking suggests oil will begin its long bullish trend to expiration soon.

Obama has vowed to fight against speculators in the oil trading market to keep a cap on extreme pricing also which could also work, or not.


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## Largesse (21 November 2008)

when you say 'it really needs to de-couple from wall street' what do you mean?

do you mean de-couple from reality again?


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## numbercruncher (21 November 2008)

Increasing Oil demand is just so 20th century ......

Not long now till we are all skipping around in our plug-in hybrids !


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## Naked shorts (29 November 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> Increasing Oil demand is just so 20th century ......
> 
> Not long now till we are all skipping around in our plug-in hybrids !




Too bad plug in hybrids require oil to make


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## Sean K (29 November 2008)

There are and will be some structural alternatives, but will they be produced at the same rate as declining fields? 

Is Chindia going to go straight to electric? In a few years (10-15 ish) there'll be as many cars, trucks, planes and boats moving about there than the rest of the world combined. At a guess.


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## ColB (29 November 2008)

> Originally quoted by *NakedShorts*Too bad plug in hybrids require oil to make




Conventional oil supplies run out and the Hybrid runs on electrically charged batteries.  Where's the electricity come from?  From burning vast amounts of Coal.  I just can't help but think whilst there is a significant amount of royalties and taxes to be gained by countries/governments from the continuing sale of oil and coal that it will be with us for a long time yet.

When and even before the oil runs out the vast stranded coal reserves around the world will be converted into liquid fuel by the likes of LINC Energy and others providing a continuing source of energy for several more years.

The green movement is considerably ramping up their campaign against coal mining and coal powered electricty plants and this is one of the issues that government have to pretend to be concerned about while trying to look at genuine alternatives that they can still make a good dollar out of.


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## Smurf1976 (29 November 2008)

ColB said:


> The green movement is considerably ramping up their campaign against coal mining and coal powered electricty plants and this is one of the issues that government have to pretend to be concerned about while trying to look at genuine alternatives that they can still make a good dollar out of.



If only it was as simple as making a financial profit out of it. Making an energy profit, at a financial cost that's affordable, is a far greater problem. Many of the so-called alternatives just don't work in terms of providing decent amounts of energy either at all (in many cases), in a reliable manner or at a financially affordable cost. Hence coal will be around for quite some decades yet no matter what the consequences.

Other than collecting local firewood, passive solar heating and building a hydro scheme (or mining coal) with manual labour basically all energy sources are dependent on oil in some way. That's a rather large problem once oil becomes scarce - all the alternatives then become either much harder or impractical to develop. And whilst coal can be mined and hydro schemes built with manual labour only (it's been done before), they don't come cheap or easy doing it that way.

Solar panels take huge amounts of fossil fuel to make. Wind turbines require constant ongoing maintenance meaning travel using, in practice, oil-fuelled vehicles. And any form of distributed generation means massive amounts of travel and ongoing oil use to maintain it unless it's technically so simple that the householder can DIY - which isn't the case in practice.


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## So_Cynical (29 November 2008)

Smurf1976 said:


> Solar panels take huge amounts of fossil fuel to make. Wind turbines require constant ongoing maintenance meaning travel using, in practice, *oil-fuelled vehicles.* And any form of distributed generation means massive amounts of travel and ongoing oil use to maintain it unless it's technically so simple that the householder can DIY - which isn't the case in practice.




Annoys me how most people only see alternative "Green" power as 
"exotic power", there's heaps more to it....ENE is a great example of that.

http://www.energydevelopments.com/_dbase_upl/20081106_ENE_2008 AGM Chairmans Address.pdf

Energy Developments Limited,  LNG fueled road train delivering LPG to one 
of ENE's..LNG power Plants - part of the West Kimberley Power Project.


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## trillionaire#1 (29 November 2008)

Saudi oil - minister Ali al-Naimi says oil prices need to return to us$75
a barrel."There is good logic for $75 a barrel,"said Mr Naimi.
"You know why?Because i believe us$75 is the price for the marginal producer.
If the world needs supply from all sources,we need to protect the price 
for them.I think us$75 is a fair price".


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## Sean K (30 November 2008)

trillionaire#1 said:


> Saudi oil - minister Ali al-Naimi says oil prices need to return to us$75
> a barrel."There is good logic for $75 a barrel,"said Mr Naimi.
> "You know why?Because i believe us$75 is the price for the marginal producer.
> If the world needs supply from all sources,we need to protect the price
> for them.I think us$75 is a fair price".



Sounds like a 'fair' price to me.


That must be the amount required to pay for a 6 star hotel and a private jet.


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## noirua (30 November 2008)

OPEC has ended a meeting in Cairo without announcing new output cuts, despite the steep drop in crude prices and the threat to national budgets.

OPEC President Chakib Khelil said the organization is concerned about the impact of the weakening world economy.

The group, however, will likely wait until a meeting in Algeria on December 17th to decide whether to cut additional crude supplies from the market.


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## jeflin (30 November 2008)

Hard to talk about the oil rally for the next year or so but oil prices will definitely come back with a vengeance in the next bull market. 

Developing alternative energies is really critical, else the hunger for oil could turn very ugly in terms of destroying more of the environment as well as war.


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## Naked shorts (30 November 2008)

jeflin said:


> Hard to talk about the oil rally for the next year or so but oil prices will definitely come back with a vengeance in the next bull market.




Well I guess the price cant go too far.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/146161

"Studies over the years by industry and government alike estimate that there may be between 800 billion and more than one trillion barrels of oil locked up in these rocks--nearly three times the known reserves in Saudi Arabia. That would be enough oil to supply America for the next 400 years."


Besides that, I'm enjoying 99c/L for petrol here in Brisbane


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## Naked shorts (30 November 2008)

Food for thought:

http://oiltradersblog.blogspot.com/2008/11/global-demand-for-oil-will-rebound-in.html

"Global demand for oil will rebound in 2010-2011 and prices may then exceed their peak levels of July 2008, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

In July U.S. crude oil prices reached a record high above $147 a barrel but have since dropped and were trading below $54 on Thursday.

"We can see almost every day that projects are being cancelled (due to the financial crisis) and this is bad news (...) as supply is being withdrawn, but demand will eventually rebound in 2010-2011. We may see prices going even higher than we saw this summer," Fatih Birol told a seminar in Warsaw."


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