# Futures blog, GB



## Gringotts Bank (11 April 2018)

Trendlines, patterns and wave volume.

Markets are going sideways.  Expecting an upwards explosion at some point.


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## Gringotts Bank (11 April 2018)

Oil, flag breakout on 2hr but already overbought.  Hard to know what to do.


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## tech/a (11 April 2018)

What are your trading rules?

You shouldn’t have to question any pattern or set up?

Obviously you’ve tested all ideas your placing in your Thread/blog.


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## Gringotts Bank (11 April 2018)

tech/a said:


> What are your trading rules?
> 
> You shouldn’t have to question any pattern or set up?
> 
> Obviously you’ve tested all ideas your placing in your Thread/blog.




Conflicting signals.  SHould be clear in 1.5hrs from now.


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## tech/a (11 April 2018)

So the rule is act on signals that are in sinc
So if oil is overbought your looking for short plays?
Markets can remain over bought or sold for ages.

What are you looking for?


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## Gringotts Bank (11 April 2018)

Long entry on ES at the trendline.


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## Gringotts Bank (11 April 2018)

tech/a said:


> So the rule is act on signals that are in sinc
> So if oil is overbought your looking for short plays?
> Markets can remain over bought or sold for ages.
> 
> What are you looking for?



Just what I said at the start.  Trendlines, patterns and wave volume.  When a market is 'unwound' from accumulation or distribution, I consider it overbought/oversold.  When it's unwound, the chance of an opposite direction trade is better.

I should be able to get 60% wins, so roughly 4% risk per trade is probably alright.  Maybe a touch on the high side but YOLO.


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## Gringotts Bank (12 April 2018)

The 5 min AUS200 is resembling the 2 hour.  So whatever happens on the 5min will probably play out on the higher TF.  

3 rising valleys.  Expect higher.


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## Gringotts Bank (12 April 2018)

Perhaps a short here on CL - not much meat on the bone though.


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## Gringotts Bank (12 April 2018)

Good long entry for ES now.


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## CanOz (12 April 2018)

Are you totally ignorant of the geopolitical threat to oil shorts or do you really believe its all in your charts??


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## Gringotts Bank (12 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> Are you totally ignorant of the geopolitical threat to oil shorts or do you really believe its all in your charts??



You keep taking a turn to nasty town.  What's wrong with you?  What the hell did I do to you, or Julian for that matter?  That dick is on ignore and you're close.


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## CanOz (12 April 2018)

Sorry,  GB. It just gets under my skin to see a trader willing to put on a trade that could be quickly evaporated by a single news announcement. I just don't want to see you cook an account for this reason.


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## Gringotts Bank (12 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> Sorry,  GB. It just gets under my skin to see a trader willing to put on a trade that could be quickly evaporated by a single news announcement. I just don't want to see you cook an account for this reason.



Alright, clean slate.  I'm not trading anything like the size modest is.  Guaranteed stops.


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## Gringotts Bank (12 April 2018)

tgt 6603.


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## Gringotts Bank (12 April 2018)

out...not going to make that low tgt.


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## Gringotts Bank (13 April 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> tgt 6603.



Reached it, though it laboured to get there...then took off again.  Captured part of it.


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## Gringotts Bank (13 April 2018)

Looking for a break above the early April highs (Aus200 and Wallst).  If that hapens a big run might follow.


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## CanOz (13 April 2018)

I wouldn't be surprised if the big money waits on geopolitical issues to settle somewhat...watch the volume.


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## Gringotts Bank (13 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> I wouldn't be surprised if the big money waits on geopolitical issues to settle somewhat...watch the volume.



With your brokers, are you able to trade a 17 point move on CL?  IGs spread is currently 3 points, making it impossible.  And I just missed that obvious move.  They see an obvious line and it widens to prevent entry.


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## CanOz (13 April 2018)

Well I just did...got about 20 odd ticks before my auto trail kicked in....

There is only the actual bid ask spread....if my brokerage was as low as AMPs I could trade 5 tick moves....

Remember, I'm trading the actual futures market...not a synthetic representative.


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## Gringotts Bank (13 April 2018)

Aus200 about to take off.


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## Wysiwyg (14 April 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Aus200 about to take off.



I realise this is your CFD trading thread and can post whatever but when these baseless opinions are posted it detracts from what could be a learned thread.


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## CanOz (14 April 2018)

Wishing I'd just sat on a long gold or treasury position....


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## Gringotts Bank (15 April 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> I realise this is your CFD trading thread and can post whatever but when these baseless opinions are posted it detracts from what could be a learned thread.




For me, charts are like surfing waves.  You can show me a picture of any of the major breaks in the world and I'll tell you in a split second where it is.  The colour of the water, the lighting, the shape of the wave (wedge, barrel, fat, foam ball, pitching, wrapping etc), the number of people in the water, how close it is to shore, whether the surfers are wearing wetsuits, where the picture is taken from (cliff top, boat/jetski, in water, drone), time of day, whether there's wind and and chop, whether you can see through the peak to the other side, the thickness of the lip, whether there's hot girls on the beach (Pipeline!), the slope of the beach, the length of the ride, the types of surf craft in the water (boards, bodyboards, windsurfers, foil boards, skimboards), and so on.

Instruments are like waves - they have signature appearance and behaviour.  Chart behaviour (like waves) can change depending on the 'weather'.  For perfect surfing conditions, you want a lot of wind a longway offshore, and a light offshore wind close to shore.  Tide can make a difference to some breaks and not others.  Wind offshore = higher TF - this creates the swell.  Wind close to shore = lower TF - this shapes the wave and smooths it out.  Tide is akin to 'time of day' for a chart.  This is the degree of observation that happens if your mind is attracted to something.  I love water, waves, the beach, so it's easy...and I can see a parallel with trading.

In terms of trading, I like watching how a chart moves and what happens with volume (volume = swell size).  That's my edge.  But psychology is the single most important thing.  Find a way that you like to trade, and don't do things that don't suit you.  I would never read a NFP report because that would be incredibly boring to me.  Same goes for all fundamentals.  Movement, shapes, patterns and volume - that's me.  I don't know what 'CME' stands for and I have no interest in looking it up on Google- none!  But also, I don't want to waste my life looking at charts.  I want to know the entire context within a minute, with all relevant info avaliable quickly and on 2 uncluttered chart panes.

The difficulty of the wave should = positions size.  Confidence will disappear if things are too big for you, and obviously the best surfers are going hard on the most difficult waves.  And confidence is everything.  Once you have a small and simple edge, it's _*all*_ about confidence and fun.

One last thing:  if you're making more money than me (and you may well be), you can disregard everything I've written here.


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## tech/a (15 April 2018)

While I understand your ramblings
It’s only about 1 thing ——- PROFIT.

Keep confidence and fun for sport.


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## precitra (15 April 2018)

short CLK8 at 67.31 what is your system say


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## Gringotts Bank (16 April 2018)

Nice surprise that gap, but I think it will get filled.

@precitra, I don't know.  Seems choppy, like everything.  

Gold has a shape that looks tradable.


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## Gringotts Bank (16 April 2018)

gold flag; should measured move up to 1351.5


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## precitra (16 April 2018)

gc up is trap


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## precitra (17 April 2018)

buy back clk8 at 66.37


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## Gringotts Bank (17 April 2018)

Slow grind up over days ahead.  Good enviromnment for spec stocks.


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## Gringotts Bank (17 April 2018)

Bear pennant gold.  SHould see it down to the trendline.


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## CanOz (17 April 2018)

I'm short but don't tell the Illuminati....Keep an eye on HG as well...GB


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## Gringotts Bank (17 April 2018)

Looks like broadening wedge now.  I think back to the the top line before back down. HG as in copper?  Are they correlated?


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## CanOz (17 April 2018)

Somewhat correlated...but they have their quarrels


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## Gringotts Bank (17 April 2018)

I'm fascinated by the way attitude affects decision making in relation to trading.  It's almost as if the mind is drawn to take any trade which confirms it's attitude, and cannot go against this.  Even if you recognize this dynamic and take the reverse trade, it still holds true.

The only way I can explain this is like so:

1- every experienced trader knows (roughly) what the chart will do into the future, even though they don't recognize it consciously
2- The subconscious craves predictability, so it will choose losers to confirm a negative attitude, and winners to confirm a positive attitude.

@captain black  - the feeling when "you just know".


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## Gringotts Bank (17 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> Somewhat correlated...but they have their quarrels



Like you and me huh?


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## CanOz (17 April 2018)

nice spike lower with gold, all up to my trailing stop now...


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## precitra (18 April 2018)

short ngk8 at2.754    gc should buy back soon


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## precitra (18 April 2018)

buy back ngk8 at 2.747


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## precitra (18 April 2018)

short gcm8 at 1351.1  short 6am8 at 0.777


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## CanOz (18 April 2018)

Woke up to a Tidy little profit on that GC trade....did you trade it GB?


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## Gringotts Bank (18 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> Woke up to a Tidy little profit on that GC trade....did you trade it GB?




No I don't take every single trade that I mention here, and conversely, I take trades that I don't mention here.  A trading journal with a difference.  

Gold's spread is way too high as a CFD.  Still trialling new platforms for futs.


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## Gringotts Bank (18 April 2018)

The inability to position size with a small futures account is posing a problem.  You either start with a huge account and size properly, or you have to take 1-2 contracts and maintain a high win rate.  CFDs allow you to get around this with $1 contracts, but with futures I'll need to avoid set ups with big targets.


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## precitra (18 April 2018)

high win rate is the key.   trade just like drive the car. system is gps.


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## Gringotts Bank (18 April 2018)

How does liability work when you open an account with a futures broker?  I'm getting the impression that if the market tanks big time you can find your stops didn't trigger and be held liable for huge losses.  Is this correct?

AMP says they will _attempt_ to close all open positions in the case of daily loss limits, but nothing is guaranteed.  Yikes.

Maybe I should look into playing with OPM.


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## CanOz (18 April 2018)

This went well....got stopped out of gold long, a dax long, and a bund long...

All but GC were above break even...

Modest would be proud, i was short going into the inflation announcement
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 ....


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## CanOz (18 April 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> How does liability work when you open an account with a futures broker?  I'm getting the impression that if the market tanks big time you can find your stops didn't trigger and be held liable for huge losses.  Is this correct?
> 
> AMP says they will _attempt_ to close all open positions in the case of daily loss limits, but nothing is guaranteed.  Yikes.
> 
> Maybe I should look into playing with OPM.




Liquid markets are fine, but there are times when the unthinkable will arrive. I have not had a bad stop fill in nearly 7 years of trading futures...But i'm not sized for destruction either. I have the account size to weather a black swan or two.


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## Gringotts Bank (18 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> Liquid markets are fine, but there are times when the unthinkable will arrive. I have not had a bad stop fill in nearly 7 years of trading futures...But i'm not sized for destruction either. I have the account size to weather a black swan or two.




Thanks.  I wouldn't want to find the US market down 15% one day and AMP telling me I owe them money, and sorry but your stops couldn't activated.  I couldn't handle that.


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## CanOz (18 April 2018)

Not sure I understand your predicament.....you're all for cfds but not for futures? Perhaps it's the account size that's holding you back. 

This game is 90% risk management, but it's just math. What is your risk of ruin? How much can you afford to lose?


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## Gringotts Bank (18 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> Not sure I understand your predicament.....you're all for cfds but not for futures? Perhaps it's the account size that's holding you back.
> 
> This game is 90% risk management, but it's just math. What is your risk of ruin? How much can you afford to lose?




CFDs were good in some ways because they offer guaranteed stops for a small fee, and they allowed me to positon size.  Problem is the pricing of CFDs is highly questionable, sometimes 100's of points away from the actual futures contract.  Their reason is always that this differential can happen when markets are volatile, which is unacceptable to me.  

Risk management - yes.  I want to be able to have a definite stop, ie. one which will be guaranteed to trigger if the market tanks hard.


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## CanOz (18 April 2018)

Then pick your instruments carefully. The 6B, GC, even CL have suffered fairly frequent flash crashes. You can't just walk away and leave a large position on. Equity indices on the other hand have rarer occurrences of liquidity evaporations....at the end of the day you need to be prepared for all circumstances and that includes the black swans.


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## Gringotts Bank (18 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> Then pick your instruments carefully. The 6B, GC, even CL have suffered fairly frequent flash crashes. You can't just walk away and leave a large position on. Equity indices on the other hand have rarer occurrences of liquidity evaporations....at the end of the day you need to be prepared for all circumstances and that includes the black swans.




The black swan is no problem at all, so long as stops can be activated.  But you're saying they can't always, even in the most liquid instruments.  How do you prepare for a solar storm hitting the US when all communications are out?


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## CanOz (18 April 2018)

You prepare by not holding all of your eggs in one basket. You prepare by having a risk plan. GB there are no guarantees in life and these markets are the real thing. You must have another person on the end of your trade for your stop to get filled....that's the reality. Now how do you plan to deal with it?


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## Gringotts Bank (18 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> You prepare by not holding all of your eggs in one basket. You prepare by having a risk plan. GB there are no guarantees in life and these markets are the real thing. You must have another person on the end of your trade for your stop to get filled....that's the reality. Now how do you plan to deal with it?




I probably need a bigger account.  ES is $16AU per tick, yes?  So a run of 15 losing trades with a 100 point target (RR=1) means I'd need an account of 24k.  No problem there.  The problem is when I find the stops didn't activate, the market falls through the floor and the broker wants 500k.


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## CanOz (18 April 2018)

Look at the daily ranges and work that out, unlikely.


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## Wysiwyg (18 April 2018)

Don't trade mate. You won't make it.


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## Gringotts Bank (19 April 2018)

I don't want to put up a big sum of money with AMP if there's a risk they might do a MFGlobal.  And leveraging my own money tothat degree feels too risky if stops can't be guaranteed.

Up for hire.


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## CanOz (19 April 2018)

You could pretty much trade whatever you want with a 10k account with AMP, lowest margins around. That's the beauty of them, keep your money in the bank. Use only what you need for margin.


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## Gringotts Bank (20 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> You could pretty much trade whatever you want with a 10k account with AMP, lowest margins around. That's the beauty of them, keep your money in the bank. Use only what you need for margin.



Speaking of AMP failures...

I think I will go with them eventually.  But I thought of a solution in the mean time.  Only take short positions.  Markets only go down via the elevator, not up.  Market meltdowns/fat finger f-ups/algo weirdness/CME server hacks...resulting in huge drops and unfilled stops...  can all be avoided.


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## Gringotts Bank (24 April 2018)

Some updates on my simplified Wykoff boxing match analogy.

*PS* = has no meaning to me.
*SC/AR* = I view this as one event, rather than two.  The bear lands what he hopes is a haymaker but it doesn't cause quite the damage intended.  The blow bounces and/or is absorbed by the bull. AR is like a low force recoil (low volume).
*ST* = bear lands another blow to the bull, but with less force (tired from the effort put into the haymaker).
*creek* = Bear is tiring, but he manages to keep up an appearance of strength ("keep your left up").  Bull steps in with more and more volume on each subsequent blow.
*spring* = bear is dazed, reaching, not connecting, low volume (power), slow (time lengthened)
*jump the creek* = crowd is taken by surpise, they thought the bull was gone for all money (they are still affected by the haymaker attempt and haven't noticed the change in behaviour).
*SOS* = bull steps up with confidence, landing blow after blow with only small defenses offered by the bear.


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## Gringotts Bank (24 April 2018)

Thinking about adding Buteyko method to my training.  My current methods for optimizing my psychology for trading are very compact and easy to implement when I remember, but I need something physical to power it up.  Weights are ok, but they still don't hit the mark.  If I can get this sorted, the money should start arriving at a speed which will satisfy me.


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## Gringotts Bank (24 April 2018)

*AR* is not an attack, but a defense so solid it causes the bear to recoil.  Since it's not an attack, it has lowish volume.  The bear knows his time is limited unless he can bring more and repeated power, which is possible but unlikely.  He _will_ make the effort though.  Some bears have reserves to draw on, and with a second wind he might be able to take back control (re-distribution). 

An AR which is high volume and reach (ticks) is probably not an AR.  When the two boxers exchange very heavy blows, one immediately following the other, no one knows what happens next because it's not common.  It gets the crowd excited, that's all.  Not good to take trades after that sort of exchange, because both sides have clearly shown they are willing and able to fight for supremacy.


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## Gringotts Bank (24 April 2018)

A few hours into reading about Buteyko method, and I'm getting a distinct feeling that the *correlation* he observed between breathing and health were/are very strong, but that he may have missed the importance of underlying *cause*.  Despite that, a strong correlation can still be very useful if you can get under the hook and tinker...which is what I plan to do.

In particular, I'm interested in any way to optimize/maximize oxygenation and therefore the quality of trade decision-making.  Avoiding all costly emotive decisions.


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## Gringotts Bank (25 April 2018)

*under the hood

Buteyko made some really sharp insights.  In relation to trading, I have found my breathing changes slightly even when placing small trades.  With bigger trades, it can change quite significantly.  The change is a subconscious attempt to reduce the awareness of anxiety about the trade moving against me and causing loss.  Anything you suppress becomes magnified unless ever greater energy is expended in the process of suppression.

The greater the confidence in one's technical approach to trading, the less anxiety (and therefore better decision making).  But technical mastery is a small part of the equation.  Strong vibe + half-baked technical approach will massively outperform low vibe + solid technical approach. 

Currently I'm checking various 'self-statements' against the breath, to see which alters it the most in a favourable way.


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## Gringotts Bank (30 April 2018)

Reduced volume breathing (RVB) rapidly brings you into contact with the accumulated psychic pain stored in the nervous system - I think that's why it works.  Similar to meditation but powered up significantly.  So if you hate meditation you'll really hate this!

Doing RVB with a close awareness of the raw 'out of breath' sensation actually dissolves that feeling, leaving you with the realization that not breathlessness at all, but psychic stress.  We overbreathe as a way of avoiding that feeling, and for all intents and purposes, it feels like a lack of air in the lungs.  So it seems to work, but imho, not for the reasons Buteyko claimed.  Without the correct awareness, RVB will be aggravating, stressful and quite useless. Maybe that's why it didn't pass clinical trials.


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## Gringotts Bank (1 May 2018)

copied from https://www.normalbreathing.com/i-hyperventilation.php

Also see the criticisms in the comments section because they are important.


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## Gringotts Bank (6 May 2018)

Buteyko - not noticing any difference so will leave that alone.

Since the subconscious is a supercomputer designed to recognize patterns and form associations, I'm proceding on the basis that it will know the future price direction with just a glimpse of the chart.  At least I believe this would be true for experienced chartists.  I've got hundreds of examples, both my own and others to back this up.  Soros has this 'knack' of being fully aligned with his subconscious.  All good discretionary traders appear to have it.  Some of the best systems traders I know who can program like ninjas will fail to beat the market.  Having said that, maybe they're coding the wrong things.

https://hypnotc.com/laws-suggestion-rules-mind/


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## Gringotts Bank (6 May 2018)

A Wyckoff-style backtest for ASX speccies.  Will probably use this as a filter - whilst the curve is nice and smooth, the returns are small.  Brokerage included, slippage not, position size is $5000 ($200000 daily turnover stocks) over 18 years.  Slippage is always the killer with systems, which is why high turnover instruments appeal.  Unfortunately, this system doesn't work on futures but I may find a way.  Pick the right stocks judiciously and really pile it in.  A stock like DFM - finds that sort of thing.

In general, backtests reflect a desire to find certainty in the market.  And whilst there is _some_ certainty, there's certainly not _much_ - ie. most technical edges are thin.  The best of the best use their ability to feel and flow with the price.


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## Gringotts Bank (8 May 2018)

The quality and profitability of financial decision-making deteriorates with anxiety.  And yet as far as the mind is concerned, anxiety is a _good _thing since it promotes survival.  But wait ... part of survival is the ability to generate an living from trading!  *Two strongly opposing forces powered by the very same impulse.*  Logically, the only way to achieve very high profits would be to completely release anxiety...

... and like Riba said, just let it ride.


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## Gringotts Bank (19 May 2018)

We can convince ourselves that anything is real.  Sometimes all it takes is a convincing salesman or woman who speaks in a very confident way. 

Up until the 3:15 min mark, anyone watching this video will be sighing, rolling their eyes and thinking "she doesn't believe him; she is obviously just playing along".  And she _*is*_ just playing along... right up until the message gets past her critical factor (3:16) and she calls the red card black!  And then what about when she can't find her car?

Now instead of red/black we could instead use candlestick patterns, MACD crossover, "smart money", support and resistance, fractal hoo-ha or whatever you like.


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## Gringotts Bank (19 May 2018)

50 years ago women would do "Jazzercise" classes to help with fitness.  Then came aerobics.  Pretty soon, people saw that you could exploit the ignorant masses by packaging a desirable image.  So then there was pump classes, Tae bo, cross fit, spin classes, then yoga made a come back, and pilates and so on.  If you were to go into a gym nowadays and speak to one of those personal trainer dudes, he'd sell you on "core strength" (despite the fact that it's not really important, according to the science), and he would sell you that idea with so much gusto because he himself believes it!  Someone sold _him _the idea!  Now you believe it!  And then you go and tell everyone about core strength.  Where does it end?

I'll tell you where...

It ends when a celebrity of sufficient status says "you know I used to be into core strength, but it's really all about the Jazzercise.  Just look back 50 years ago how fit people were!  Jazzercise - that's it.  I've opened up a chain of 20 Jazzercise gyms across the country and we're having a grand opening where you will come and listen to me and you will believe me because that's what you do - you follow orders".

Exercise - Just choose a way to exercise that you find fun, because it's all just exercise.  Fancy packaging changes nothing - you're still gonna sweat.

Charts - Just choose a way to trade that is fun, because it's just price and volume. Fancy packaging changes nothing.


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## Wysiwyg (21 May 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> We can convince ourselves that anything is real.  Sometimes all it takes is a convincing salesman or woman who speaks in a very confident way.



You could say that woman is typical. Watches Ellen every day, dreams of a Hollywood hunk as the bf and has a mental image of living in a two story mansion. Easy to tap her imaginative (unconscious) state given the camera, attention and queued by what's-his-name to go under. Or maybe she played along and we will never know because she could lie anyway. It really is ummm ... b.s. and bears no connection to indicators for me.


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## Wysiwyg (21 May 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> A Wyckoff-style backtest for ASX speccies.  Will probably use this as a filter - whilst the curve is nice and smooth, the returns are small.



Care to educate what the conditions are?


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## Gringotts Bank (6 June 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> Care to educate what the conditions are?



The system only looks good as an equity curve.  It's not good in actuality.

Some technical approaches sound good in theory, and some (like Wyckoff) sound excellent in theory, but then when you come to apply them you find they are not real edges.  The closest to an edge in regards to Wykcoff is 'the spring', so long as the leg leading into the spring has very high volume.  But even that is a bit 'iffy'.

Being extremely thorough, covering all bases, dotting the i's and crossing the t's, having everything 'just so', doing everything 'by the book'.... these things are harmful to performance because they foster fear of loss.  That's not to say you can't be thorough if you're already flowing nicely, but if you're using thoroughness to allay fear, it will backfire and hurt performance.

The most reliable _real life_ boost to trading performance is the correct treatment of the fear of loss.  The correct treatment is both counterintuitive and difficult.  Obviously it must be counterintuitive and difficult, otherwise everyone would be doing it and benefitting.  

All fear has the same roots.  A fear of being bitten by a bee is the same as the fear of making a losing trade.  It's all based in the same misconception.


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## Gringotts Bank (7 June 2018)

Humour, fun, light-heartedness, flexibility, an absense of hard rules (or even soft rules), and absense of structural overlay and unnecessary technicalities.  Resisting the temptation to rigidly shoe-horn the chart to fit your beliefs about how markets _must _work.  These are helpful things.

I first came across this idea when I was following a poster on HC many years ago.  He was agonizing over the likely direction of NCM... will it go up, won't it?  He must have had quite a bit tied up in this position, and as a result he was trying to balance up all the pros and cons in a highly rational and structured way.  Then he came on one night and declared he'd given up!  He walked away, relaxed completely and suddenly he realized the price was going up and he knew the exact price target.  And that's what it did - it went up to his target. Obviously one such instance doesn't mean anything, but when you see it repeated over and again in your own and others' trading, you know there's a truth in it.

We think by 'adding stuff' that we can create a desired level of certainty and reduce the risk.  But doing anything to add certainty only enhances fear, and that fear comes out in poor decision making. 

One might argue that they know traders who are highly structured who are also highly profitable, and it's true there are such people.  It's not the structure that's the problem though.... it's the reason for adding it that makes the difference.  Is it done to treat fear of loss, or for the enjoyment?


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## Gringotts Bank (8 June 2018)

True edges _do_ exist.  Reliable, high win-rate, multi-market, multi-timeframe edges.  But you never stumble across these edges without the correct mindset, and you can never apply them in real trading without the right mindset. 

Get the right mindset _first_, then go looking for your edge.  Don't start searching in a desperate frame of mind.


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## Gringotts Bank (12 June 2018)

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0058244

http://www.thebroscientist.com/wim-hof-breathing-technique-method-legit-scientific-critical-review/


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## Roller_1 (12 June 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> True edges _do_ exist.  Reliable, high win-rate, multi-market, multi-timeframe edges.  But you never stumble across these edges without the correct mindset, and you can never apply them in real trading without the right mindset.
> 
> Get the right mindset _first_, then go looking for your edge.  Don't start searching in a desperate frame of mind.



 Have you got there GB


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## Gringotts Bank (12 June 2018)

Roller_1 said:


> Have you got there GB




Pretty happy with the edge.  It's probably the first 'organic' edge I've used in that it depends upon how the price behaves around the first HL or LH after a trend, and it's very minimally optimized.  It's quite a 'bare bones' approach.  I'm waiting on some minor programming tweaks/

The correct mindset is something I haven't stabilized yet.  Doing more work on that than the system.


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## Gringotts Bank (3 July 2018)

Backtest is good, walk-forwards are ok.  Very hard to get a smooth set of walk-forwards, but they're good enough.  Backtest has 70% WR, but WR for the WF are in the 50-55% range, and that needs to come up with the addition of discretion.

Emotional intensity is whatever it is, and can't be trained.  That leaves emotional regulation, which can only be estimated by paper trading it alone, without using any technical system.  So as to not spend forever on this last aspect, better to guess at very short term movements.  The research says if you do it right, there's an edge in it.  Let's see using R:R of 1:1.


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## Gringotts Bank (5 July 2018)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3715480/


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## Gringotts Bank (7 July 2018)

https://www.quora.com/I-have-a-trad...fore-I-can-use-it-to-trade-in-the-real-market

High quality answers.


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## Gringotts Bank (9 July 2018)

US markets textbook appearance now, a la Wyckoff.


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## Gringotts Bank (9 July 2018)

In order to see the market clearly, one needs to be capable of registering negative signals in the chart, feeling them fully (recognizing the embodied sensation of danger) and acting accordingly.

To be able to do this requires that the mind allow any/all inputs and related thoughts, regardless of polarity (negative or positive).  The usual state of affairs is to prefer positive thoughts & feelings, which creates perceptual bias.

An inability to percieve danger signals will be in proprtion to the degree of pain a losing trade would create.  And it's no good saying "it didn't hurt" if you blocked the pain, because that's self-deception.  The degree of pain will be inversely proprtional to the amount of 'buffer'.  'Buffer' is most easily created by paying attention to what you already have.


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## Wysiwyg (9 July 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> https://www.quora.com/I-have-a-trad...fore-I-can-use-it-to-trade-in-the-real-market
> 
> High quality answers.



Especially this  ...

*Above all else, what you should consider first and foremost is that this backtest means very, very little, on its own.*
*I can't possibly overemphasize the importance of this. *


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## Gringotts Bank (9 July 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> Especially this  ...
> 
> *Above all else, what you should consider first and foremost is that this backtest means very, very little, on its own.*
> *I can't possibly overemphasize the importance of this. *




One important exception though.  If the backtested equity curve is smooth++, and this smoothness persists through different market conditions.  Such backtests will usually survive walkforward testing.


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## Wysiwyg (9 July 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> One important exception though.  If the backtested equity curve is smooth++, and this smoothness persists through different market conditions.  Such backtests will usually survive walkforward testing.



This was posted as though a fact and if it were then show me the money.  All good GB, your thread buddy.


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## Gringotts Bank (9 July 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> This was posted as though a fact and if it were then show me the money.  All good GB, your thread buddy.



You have to ask nicely.


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## Wysiwyg (9 July 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> You have to ask nicely.



Been there, done that. You keep them safe from the worlds prying eyes GB.


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## Gringotts Bank (9 July 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> Been there, done that. You keep them safe from the worlds prying eyes GB.



It's not about prying eyes.  It's about guarding against people trying to bring you down.  Post #86!

When you put someone's name at the end of the sentence rather than at the start, it changes the tone significanty.


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## Gringotts Bank (11 July 2018)

US mkts - the accumulation phase is quite big, so this could be a good dip to buy.


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## Gringotts Bank (12 July 2018)

US markets.

15 min is doing a mini version of the 4 hour.  I think this happens to test what will ensue on the larger time frame.


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## Gringotts Bank (12 July 2018)

1HR (EARLY jUL) AND 15MIN (CURRENT)


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## Gringotts Bank (13 July 2018)

"The chief cause of fear is overtrading".  Wyckoff.

I think that depends on the reason for trade frequency.  If the higher frequency is in desperation, then you're giving in to fear.  Fear can make you grab and grasp.  Grabbing and grasping makes you more fearful.  Circular.


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## Gringotts Bank (13 July 2018)




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## Gringotts Bank (13 July 2018)

https://www.hhmi.org/news/changing-emotional-association-memories

Scientific evidence for NLP re-association techniques.


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## Gringotts Bank (20 July 2018)

Wondering whether the US has more upside.  I think it will revisit the high - at the least - and perhaps add another leg up.  

Testing support right now.


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## Gringotts Bank (24 July 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> One important exception though.  If the backtested equity curve is smooth++, and this smoothness persists through different market conditions.  Such backtests will usually survive walkforward testing.




I might have to retract this.

This is the FDAX backtest.  MDD is 14% (highlighted in yellow), othwerwise very low DD over the 4 year period of 10 min bars, and a strong recovery factor.  WR is 71%.  Slippage and comms accounted for.




Walk forward tests were also very good, no matter which way I chopped up the data.  On average, WF WRs dropped into the 50's, and MDD increased to about 30%, but still highly profitable.

The data I used stopped at the end of 2017.  As you know, market volatility changed substantially in February and still hasn't settled.  I bought new data to get up to date, and whilst the metrics remain ok, if I'd been trading this I would have reached the MDD of the WF tests already (30%).  So it's not something I'm willing to trade.  I wouldn't handle it.  The only way I might consider trading it is as an automated strategy which I can't be bothered doing now. I don't have the programming expertise or patience.

Meanwhile, my real money discretionary account is up 18% in its first 2 weeks, 90% WR.  Based roughly on the same theme.  So I'll just see what happens with that as to whether it's a good long term propspect.


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## Gringotts Bank (28 July 2018)

First 23 trades, real money.  Still more improving in the psychology department to do before any decent size.  That's where the real edge lies.


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## grah33 (8 August 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> First 23 trades, real money.  Still more improving in the psychology department to do before any decent size.  That's where the real edge lies.
> 
> View attachment 88597



u mention accumulation, distribution, whckoff elsewhere.  are people using VSA to trade the emini?


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## Gringotts Bank (11 August 2018)

grah33 said:


> u mention accumulation, distribution, whckoff elsewhere.  are people using VSA to trade the emini?




I went into it in depth, and as far as I can tell, Wyckoff doesn't work on futures or fx.  It's a nice-sounding theory, and I had it coded up exactly as I wanted it, did probably a few hundred hours of testing but couldn't find anything profitable.  That's all I can say about it.  Maybe someone else has managed to work out Wyckoff, who would know...

VSA I never put much effort into that, so I can't say.  Capblack uses it profitably.

If you want something to work with, plot a low lag, smoothed moving average.  Look at all the buy signals it throws up and see if you can tell which ones will be winners.  And when they win, what sort of profit target can you expect.  See what sort of win rate you can get using discretion, then hone your psychology, because that's where the money is.  You don't need a fancy system.  It's all about how you make decisions and work with your emotions.


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## grah33 (13 August 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I went into it in depth, and as far as I can tell, Wyckoff doesn't work on futures or fx.  It's a nice-sounding theory, and I had it coded up exactly as I wanted it, did probably a few hundred hours of testing but couldn't find anything profitable.  That's all I can say about it.  Maybe someone else has managed to work out Wyckoff, who would know...
> 
> VSA I never put much effort into that, so I can't say.  Capblack uses it profitably.
> 
> If you want something to work with, plot a low lag, smoothed moving average.  Look at all the buy signals it throws up and see if you can tell which ones will be winners.  And when they win, what sort of profit target can you expect.  See what sort of win rate you can get using discretion, then hone your psychology, because that's where the money is.  You don't need a fancy system.  It's all about how you make decisions and work with your emotions.






Just goes to show how challenging trading can be.  Although I thought Vsa and Wyckoff were the same thing, but i'll know soon enough the differences.

With my previous lack of success in  Forex , I find one needs a real edge to make it work. Money management alone won't do I, but will make a person break even.


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## Gringotts Bank (28 August 2018)

"Everywhere I looked I saw extensive farmlands. And that insecure, fluffy, and caring part of me got caught between being proud of the industriousness of man and being sad at the sight of the magnificent old Sonoran desert turned into an orderly scene of furrows and domesticated plants".

"The old, dark, heavy part of me did not care. And the two parts entered into a debate. The fluffy
part wanted the heavy part to care, and the heavy part wanted the other one to stop fretting, and
to enjoy".

https://archive.org/stream/CarlosCa...los Castaneda - The Power Of Silence_djvu.txt


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## Gringotts Bank (28 August 2018)

"I stared at him with a thoroughly uncharacteristic coldness. Never in my life had I had such a feeling. It was not hatred I felt, or even anger: I was not even annoyed with him. What I felt was not resignation or patience, either. And it was certainly not kindness. Rather it was a cold indifference, a frightening lack of pity".

Trade from _this _place.


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