# Can't Explain It But I'm Suddenly Incredibly Bullish



## MichaelD (9 August 2008)

As the subject says, all of a sudden today (pretty much soon after today's close on the ASX) I began to feel bullish. Not just hopefully bullish, but really, really bullish - I've not been this bullish since I started up a "market's going up 'cause everyone thinks it isn't" thread before the counter-trend rally in March.

Can't explain it rationally (and as always I just trade the plans anyway).

Is it Olympic euphoria?

Is it 'cause the whole world is settled in for the prolonged bear?

I dunno.

Maybe I should just take my medication.


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## Sean K (9 August 2008)

MichaelD said:


> As the subject says, all of a sudden today (pretty much soon after today's close on the ASX) I began to feel bullish. Not just hopefully bullish, but really, really bullish - I've not been this bullish since I started up a "market's going up 'cause everyone thinks it isn't" thread before the counter-trend rally in March.
> 
> Can't explain it rationally (and as always I just trade the plans anyway).
> 
> ...



It is 12.30 on Friday night there Michael. Could a few ales be involved with the euphoria? Sea of green in the US right now, so your Monday might be ok.


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## theasxgorilla (9 August 2008)

MichaelD said:


> As the subject says, all of a sudden today (pretty much soon after today's close on the ASX) I began to feel bullish. Not just hopefully bullish, but really, really bullish - I've not been this bullish since I started up a "market's going up 'cause everyone thinks it isn't" thread before the counter-trend rally in March.




I think it's fair to say that 5000 on the XAO has stopped the decline in it's tracks for the time being, and the SPY in the US looks like breaking out.  If it breaks out to the high side I'll join your sentiment for the next little while.


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## MichaelD (9 August 2008)

kennas said:


> Could a few ales be involved with the euphoria?




Nope. Stone cold sober. I did have a Pepsi Max this afternoon though - that always revs me up.

Just a bit manic I guess. US does look surprisingly good, though. Another huge loss reported - this time Fannie Mae - last time it was Merrill Lynch - and still the market rebounds.

And then there's a story now on Yahoo Finance about how most people expect stocks to fall in the next 12 months.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (9 August 2008)

MichaelD said:


> Nope. Stone cold sober. I did have a Pepsi Max this afternoon though - that always revs me up.
> 
> Just a bit manic I guess. US does look surprisingly good, though. Another huge loss reported - this time Fannie Mae - last time it was Merrill Lynch - and still the market rebounds.
> 
> And then there's a story now on Yahoo Finance about how most people expect stocks to fall in the next 12 months.




Will the contrarians come out.


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## wayneL (9 August 2008)

I think it would be fair to say that the institutions, who have had a severe reaming this year, are pro-actively in the market now. Having now largely completed any sector adjusting, unless there is another bout of redemptions, there is buying pressure here.

Like I said before, a tradeable rally, particularly strong in a few sectors.


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## CanOz (9 August 2008)

This may be the strongest Friday in a while too, and its a fact that bull markets start the week in the red and go green by Friday, reverse for bear markets which generally has been the case in this bear market. 

The S&P 500 has not broke out of its triangle pattern yet though, so I'm not getting out of the shorts until then at least, but the longs are doing well tonight!

Cheers,


CanOz


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## theasxgorilla (9 August 2008)

MichaelD said:


> And then there's a story now on Yahoo Finance about how most people expect stocks to fall in the next 12 months.




Translated: Joe Public's shares are presently on sale at a discount.


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## MRC & Co (9 August 2008)

I agree Michael.  Though I don't count since my current month is pathetic, I am currently, as of today, 9 longs and 4 shorts.  

No pyramids as of yet.

The volume at open today was HUGE, formed a flag, a small breakout and forming another flag now.  Too bad my gap close was tagged before it ran, story of my month 

Going to bed, but wouldn't be surprised to see it carry on with it tonight and on Monday.


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## The_Snowman (9 August 2008)

Read this on MarketWatch.....

I just heard a guy on CNBC state that there have been 24 +300 DOW days in history........ ALL in Bear Markets. Food for thought for the weekend.


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## Tysonboss1 (9 August 2008)

MichaelD said:


> I've not been this bullish since I started up a "market's going up 'cause everyone thinks it isn't" thread before the counter-trend rally in March.




Same I think the Tide is turning and the bull is waking, I started this year just stockpiling all surplus cash in offset accounts, but for the last couple of months    I have building up my portfolio of 15 companies that should perform well once the markets starts to recover, 

Signs that interest rates may begin to ease here in OZ will have a good impact on the market, especially on some of the income stocks that are trading on rediculous yeilds at the moment,... every 1/4 of a % that term deposit rates drop means that people are wiling to pay more for each dollar of income that a stock provides, so will should start to see the income stocks recover and trade at lower yeilds ( Higher prices ).


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## Sean K (9 August 2008)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I have building up my portfolio of 15 companies that should perform well once the markets starts to recover,



Care to share those Tyson? If you don't want to put it in the regular forum splash them up in a blog or PM. Cheers, kennas


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## CanOz (9 August 2008)

Well heres the S&P mini breaking out of the triangle....I just hope it really does trend, this choppy action has really sliced up the account! For most positions we've cut the risk back even further.

Thankfully MCD had a good session last night! This is the first US stock that we've had to go up over 6% in one session i think.

Cheers,



CanOz

S&P on top, MCD Posi on bottom


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## Tysonboss1 (9 August 2008)

kennas said:


> Care to share those Tyson? If you don't want to put it in the regular forum splash them up in a blog or PM. Cheers, kennas




Nah,.... I don't want to risk having egg on my face....lol,... maybe I will PM you.


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## Sean K (9 August 2008)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Nah,.... I don't want to risk having egg on my face....lol,... maybe I will PM you.



I've got a list of 10 I'm looking at in my ASF blog for the grandkids. You can share them there. There's only 1 or 2 people who are watching there ....


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## CanOz (9 August 2008)

kennas said:


> grandkids




Good grief Kennas, i thought you just got married? I must have been away for a while longer than i thought?


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## BentRod (9 August 2008)

> for the grandkids




Roughly how old are you Kennas?

Looking at your blog I thought you were quite young.


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## Sean K (9 August 2008)

LOL 

I'm 39, no kids.

If I have any, it will be an accident. 

So, the grandkids call can be taken two ways.

1. It will never happen.
2. It will be some time off.


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## explod (9 August 2008)

The_Snowman said:


> Read this on MarketWatch.....
> 
> I just heard a guy on CNBC state that there have been 24 +300 DOW days in history........ ALL in Bear Markets. Food for thought for the weekend.





Yeh, the roller coaster gets to the stomachs, the thrill of it all,   BULLISH BEARISH, suddenly incredibly.

Sounds like the casino to me.

A read of David Hirst in todays Age is sobering reality check.   The US debt to China (or China's ownership of US debt) and what may happen after the Olympics.


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## tech/a (9 August 2008)

> I'm 39,




You were right Rod---he is "quite" young.

*Michael*---You'll get over it!


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## Sean K (9 August 2008)

tech/a said:


> You were right Rod---he is "quite" young.
> 
> *Michael*---You'll get over it!



 

Compared to some of the old farts around here.

Quite young, compared to them.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (9 August 2008)

kennas said:


> LOL
> 
> I'm 39, no kids.
> 
> ...




Kennas,

Did you shoot blanks in the army?


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## Sean K (9 August 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Kennas,
> 
> Did you shoot blanks in the army?



 LOL

No, was married, but thankfully didn't leave that with anything more than a super payout, half a house, and dogs...

Kids are too much of a distraction and are smelly and stuff.

Luckily, my younger bro has given my parents a grandkid (another on the way) and I am off the hook. 

So, when I say anything for the grandkids it's going to my wife's sisters kids and my brothers. 

Hmmm, that's nephews and nieces isn't it .... 

Anyway, they'll have a holiday house in the Carribean at least..


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## It's Snake Pliskin (9 August 2008)

kennas said:


> LOL
> 
> No, was married, but thankfully didn't leave that with anything more than a super payout, half a house, and dogs...
> 
> ...




I understand you
No kids myself, yet.


Cheers..


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## Sean K (9 August 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> I understand you
> No kids myself, yet.
> 
> 
> Cheers..



So, we're bearish on kids but short term bullish on the Australian market?

Maybe getting off track...

It's 8.30 Friday night in Cuzco so I might not be thinking straight. And my English may start to deteriorate....

If I say anything really silly, another Mod should delete immediately. Thanks.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (9 August 2008)

kennas said:


> So, we're bearish on kids but short term bullish on the Australian market?
> 
> Maybe getting off track...
> 
> ...




Well it is 10.45am ish in Japan and I am soon off to do some work. And yes this has gone off track....

Cheers....


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## shmi (9 August 2008)

i feel so young.


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## Sean K (9 August 2008)

shmi said:


> i feel so young.



There's actually a couple of threads on the age of ASF. The majority are between 25 and 40, but not by too much. 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10201&highlight=age

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8536&highlight=age

If you're under 18 you might be in the young minority. 

And if you are, what the hell are you doing here! Go out and spend all your money on alcohol, drugs and sex!


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## Tysonboss1 (9 August 2008)

kennas said:


> If you're under 18 you might be in the young minority.
> 
> And if you are, what the hell are you doing here! Go out and spend all your money on alcohol, drugs and sex!




Spend 90% on Alcohol and sex, save 10%,..... it's never to early to save kennas...lol


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## korrupt_1 (9 August 2008)

kennas said:


> Kids are too much of a distraction and are smelly and stuff.




All too true... too much distraction,.. and yes they smell and take up all your time...

BUT... i wouldn't have it any other way!! That's him in my avatar... just turned one a few days ago.

As for you Michael... feeling bullish... I know what you mean... my heart is saying it's all rosey... but my head is telling me it's just another bull-trap...

don't know... so many reasons to think one way or the other... 

the best one can do is just trade what you see and hope for the best.


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## shmi (9 August 2008)

hahaha ok well im 23, so not too young, and its not like trading and investing is easy so i figured that i would start now for when i have some real money saved to do something with. But dont worry, i still have plenty of time for drugs, alcohol and sex.


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## MichaelD (9 August 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> but my head is telling me it's just another bull-trap...




Now THAT's what I want - everyone believing it's a bear trap 'cause then it won't be.


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## agro (9 August 2008)

hope your right - FMG has taken a beating of late


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## nomore4s (11 August 2008)

Still got that bullish feeling Michael?

Or have you got over it?


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## MichaelD (12 August 2008)

Interesting. Been away for a few days, and what do I see when I return?

1. A stack of threads on shorting the market.
2. Long position after long position in my system triggering pyramids.

Talk about deja vu.


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## The_Snowman (14 August 2008)

What a difference 2 days makes............


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## tech/a (14 August 2008)

MichaelD said:


> Interesting. Been away for a few days, and what do I see when I return?
> 
> 1. A stack of threads on shorting the market.
> 2. *Long position after long position in my system triggering pyramids.
> ...




Interesting system.

Frankly I'm having a bleed.


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## theasxgorilla (14 August 2008)

The_Snowman said:


> What a difference 2 days makes............





Snowman, what is that a chart of exactly???


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## The_Snowman (14 August 2008)

The chart is a screen capture of IG Markets, Aus 200 Index, hour by hour  Aug 11, when this thread started is on the left, Aug 13 opening is on the right


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## theasxgorilla (14 August 2008)

The_Snowman said:


> The chart is a screen capture of IG Markets, Aus 200 Index, hour by hour  Aug 11, when this thread started is on the left, Aug 13 opening is on the right




I think it needs updating, as the thread opened on the 9th, which was a Saturday so you probably want to include the 8th, and plenty has happened since today's open, so you might want to include that.  And the XAO presents a better cross section of the market than the ASX200...got a chart of that one you can throw up?


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## tech/a (14 August 2008)

Howzzat!!

60 min chart.


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## Trembling Hand (14 August 2008)

I would say ugly. Today anyway!


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## theasxgorilla (14 August 2008)

Nice one guys!  Plenty of gaps to fall into...


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## MichaelD (31 August 2008)

Aha!

The next bullish indicator is now going "ding ding ding".

More than one mechanical systems trader is REFUSING to take their systems' LONG signals.


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## theasxgorilla (31 August 2008)

MichaelD said:


> Aha!
> 
> The next bullish indicator is now going "ding ding ding".
> 
> More than one mechanical systems trader is REFUSING to take their systems' LONG signals.




One thing is for sure...someone will be proved right and someone will be proved wrong.  Of course we all know (or at least parrot) that that is not what is important.

I enjoy the study of psychology...who will be right, the guesser, the second-guesser or the automaton?


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## Tysonboss1 (31 August 2008)

Is every one still feeling bullish,

I am, lots of good news latly. The share market is gaining strength, Interest rates look to be topping out and although growth in australia has slowed we are still in positive territory. I think we are having the soft landing we hoped for.

If things are starting to recover then alot of stocks are bargins at the moment.


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## korrupt_1 (11 September 2008)

So... anyone still feeling bullish???

Nearly 30% down since the highs last year... surely we're getting close to the bottom????


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## pepperoni (11 September 2008)

If you are you should quetion why you feel that way.

If you dont have any brilliant answers I wouldnt be making any bullish investments.


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## tech/a (11 September 2008)

MichaelD said:


> Aha!
> 
> The next bullish indicator is now going "ding ding ding".
> 
> More than one mechanical systems trader is REFUSING to take their systems' LONG signals.





Took my short signals though!


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## psychic (12 April 2009)

This thread needs a bump, check out how bullish we all were in August 2008, and now looks whats happened.  Don't forget about how bullish we feel right now in this current rally, and then what comes next? Look out below


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## dhukka (12 April 2009)

psychic said:


> This thread needs a bump, check out how bullish we all were in August 2008, and now looks whats happened.  Don't forget about how bullish we feel right now in this current rally, and then what comes next? Look out below




Careful now, not all of us were bullish back in August last year.


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## enigmatic (12 April 2009)

I think less are bullish on ASF then you think.. Although a majority have seemed to decide it is low enough to start picking up some gems for short term trading..

may I direct you to another thread

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15052


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