# Question: wave volume



## Gringotts Bank (4 December 2017)

Say you've got an up-trending price but it fails to make a new high (lower high).  Consider the volume in that leg - here it's 468 contracts.

There's an argument for both high and low volume being bearish.  I think high volume would be more bearish though - ie. no 'reward for effort'.  Very low volume like this might be inconsequential. Reckon?


----------



## Joules MM1 (9 December 2017)

all the action is always in the next bar ......putting up a hindsight play is useless in real time as, again, the action is always in the next bar which is the real bar you are trading even tho most of the evidence
(suggested in this instance) is from the previous bars, you have not mentioned trigger levels of the bars, the levels to be flat, trigger or ride .....so that leaves only volume, you'll need to look at how much was transacting at the offer then at the bid and was there any pro activity surrounding a mechanical (for example are mutual funds active on that day of the month, a divi due, options or on-market transfer)
what time of the day did the bulk of volume move at the bid or offer

so you've called this series a wave ......it's only a wave after how many bars? how many times do they need to be inside the H to L range, when does the wave be a trend?

you have a compression/consol and in some parts will raise volume because players may think they see the end of the compression so they step in to accum or theyre distributing into bid strength on a day when they cannot see anymore bid strength to raise price..again, we only know we have a compression in hindsight, so, it leaves open the issue of the value of how volume plays a role in price action, if volume make-up is still only a guideline, the levels are the key and you could argue that due the range shrinking as we look toward the present then the risk favours leaving a long open or a BTO and does not favour a STO but even tho is does not favour a STO that risk is defined by how high you take it in this tiny range and at the bottom of this range todate two longtails suggest buyers are keen so you still need to ask did most of the volume (at the bid) happen, in the longtail two bars, at the top or at the bottom, if more offers transacted at the top of the bar and fewer bids transacted in the tail of the bar that's a tell that something is likely to roll price downhill so reading bid/volume is useful to get a bias esp as the zone is narrowing and most likely to leap north based on the flag method

when you say "leg" it in its normal def it's not really a leg, it is an inside move as it is contained well within the confines of the previous swing high ...the two large red bars tell us there maybe a group or an individual player exiting for any number of reasons but this might not affect price heading north maybe an early warning sign that on a fundamental basis some managers are finding it hard to justify the price versus the intrinsic value

i just havent had my coffee yet, that's wot it is........ so ....


----------



## tech/a (9 December 2017)

*GB*
I think your on to it.
If nothing else you have an inquiring mind.

I was first introduced to this concept by Timothy Ord
He wrote a book on exactly your observation.

In fact it forms some of the work Im doing with some quants.
*
Worth investigating*


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 February 2018)

Thanks for the replies.  Without being able to see inside the bar I think that the particular wave in question is inconsequential.


----------



## Joules MM1 (27 February 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks for the replies.  Without being able to see inside the bar I think that the particular wave in question is inconsequential.




what about the price movements is inconsequential (to you) ?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 February 2018)

Joules MM1 said:


> what about the price movements is inconsequential (to you) ?




It's about half the volume of the preceding down wave, and it retraces only half the distance.  I'd call that reversion behaviour rather than big player buying.  And since the rest of the waves don't indicate much either, it's looking like a flag, with the big-volume (2485) 'pole' likely to set the target price for the upside.


----------



## Joules MM1 (27 February 2018)

so it's consequential in how it offers context in both size of the swing and how much transacted in that zone, it'd be consequential to whomever decided selling to open was the right idea, offering boundary of risk if that trader did not utilise flags n such


----------

