# NEM - Newmont Mining Corporation



## Sean K (24 February 2007)

This has been savaged over the past year or so due to lower than expected production and power shortages in Ghana, amongst other things. Announcing gold sales would 'temporarily decline' last FY wasn't great when POG was looking to go up. 

I reckon it might have found a bottom now, and could start to find its way out of the turd pile. If it cracks $6.25, then maybe the down trend is over. Then, next stop $6.75. MACD look pretty good for confirmation of upward momentum. Watch for it to break signal line. This may be about the $6.25-$6.50 level, perhaps. 

Having said that, the suite of bad news this company has dished out makes it susceptible to further punishment if it doesn't deliver on promises, no matter what POG is up to.

Potential breakout at the green circle, but I won't be looking at it till it beats $6.25.


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## chops_a_must (24 February 2007)

*Re: NEM - Newmont Mining Cp*

Thanks for that.   Was pretty much what I have been thinking.


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## 56gsa (25 February 2007)

The 21MA just crossed the 63MA from below - first time since mid-2006

Also nice hammer candle on Friday - presume because of POG

Not large volumes yet but certainly looks promising

Kennas - whats the shareholding like on this one - with POG looking bullish again will we see some consolidation with some of the major gold stocks? private equity even?


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## Dr Doom (25 February 2007)

NEM 10-1 CDI's -  I can't see NEM being a takeover target, rather it would be looking at taking over others to replace reserves, & reclaim top spot again. It's been impacted by high operating costs, particularly oil, hence the sell-off over the last year. Highly geared to the spot price of gold as it's hedge book is reduced further. Also exposed to copper. Pay's a small but welcome dividend also.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Newmont Mining Corp. on Thursday posted a more than three-fold gain in fourth-quarter earnings thanks to higher margins from its gold operations, while rival Barrick Gold Corp.'s profit doubled despite costs from winnowing its hedging position.
Despite a retreat in energy prices since the summer, higher costs continued to dog the precious metals producers, partly because of lower-grade ore at their mine sites.
Denver-based Newmont said it made $223 million, or 50 cents a share, in the last three months of 2006, up from a year-earlier profit of $62 million, or 14 cents a share.

Earnings from continuing operations totaled $215 million, or 48 cents a share, at the S&P 500-company. Profits under this measure also increased three-fold from the year-earlier period.
Revenue rose 13% to $1.46 billion, as an upswing in the price of gold offset lower bullion sales, Newmont said.
Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had been expecting a quarterly profit of 40 cents a share on revenue of $1.31 billion.
Wayne Murdy, chief executive, said Newmont ended 2006 on a high note, despite a "challenging industry landscape" marked by escalating costs and declining reserve grades.
"We continue to reinvest in our business while maintaining our positive outlook for the gold price," he said in a statement.


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## Dr Doom (17 March 2007)

Spoke too soon - here's hoping   . Current share price is a bargain if true. A 'target price of $55 would equate to $6.85 au. Current price = $5.45, diff = 25%.

NEW YORK (AP) - Shares of Newmont Mining Corp, rose in Friday premarket trading amid a media report that Canadian metals miner Barrick Gold Corp. could make a bid for its rival.

BusinessWeek said Barrick could pursue Newmont for its "proven and probable" reserves and operations worldwide in Australia, Canada, Mexico and the U.S.

If such a deal were reached, Newmont would be priced in the mid-50s, according to sources cited by the financial weekly magazine.

Last month, Newmont's fourth-quarter profit jumped more than threefold, lifted by higher gold prices, while Barrick's robust gold production boosted fourth-quarter earnings more than twofold.


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## Sean K (17 March 2007)

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Spoke too soon - here's hoping   . Current share price is a bargain if true. A 'target price of $55 would equate to $6.85 au. Current price = $5.45, diff = 25%.
> 
> NEW YORK (AP) - Shares of Newmont Mining Corp, rose in Friday premarket trading amid a media report that Canadian metals miner Barrick Gold Corp. could make a bid for its rival.
> 
> ...



Just the rumour should send it up, as well as any other muted potential takeover targets. Wouldn't be surprised if NCM finds support as the perennial takeover target. Funny, I saw unusual action on this yesterday and didn't examine it hard enough.


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## Dr Doom (17 March 2007)

I think this is very bullish with a Morning Doji Star completed 2 days ago, before any speculation about a takeover.


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## Sean K (18 March 2007)

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> I think this is very bullish with a Morning Doji Star completed 2 days ago, before any speculation about a takeover.



I think this is worth taking more notice of for the open Mon am. Will be back to you just before then.....

(not holding)


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## Bush Trader (19 March 2007)

Hello Gentleman.

I've held, held, and held for some time now as well as doing some accumulation along the way. It has a a vey disapointing share in my portfolio, I am patient however and I have a long view on Gold as you are well aware.

Today's market wasn't as excited as I was when I heard the news yesterday.  Why?  Is it because it is seen as a US stock and people aren't aware of it's existance on our exchange?

What's your thoughts Dr Doom and Kennas?

Cheers


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## Sean K (19 March 2007)

Hard to say BT. Very thinly traded in Australia, yes. I've watched for some time, and FP have a buy at around 5.80 on it, so it's looking cheap to them at the moment I bet. But they are gold crazy....

They've had so much bad news the past year, you would think they have to have some luck soon, or management start leaning from mistakes. 

Made yet another lower low last week.....I'll look at it more seriously when it cracks 6 bucks. Looks like a mountain of resistance there now...


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## Dr Doom (20 March 2007)

I think that rumors like this, even though it apparently came via a newspaper, are disregarded initially as something that's not going to happen, but it does put the idea in the minds of investors, so it may arrest the decline in the short term.
If we get another rumor to back the last one up then it's a different story maybe, and then we could see some real action. Nothing is impossible with the amount of money being spent by private equity, and available by banks. 
If there is a full blown takeover bid then the previous high ($8.50?) would have to be a good starting point maybe?.


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## Uncle Festivus (4 May 2007)

I think you'll be waiting a while for a takeover gents, then again, I thought this one was a dog stock until I read this today. Maybe it will get re-rated?. 

"And he repeats his long-held view that "it would not surprise me at all if gold again crossed the Dow."                                            In this context, it is interesting to see Allmon reiterating his support for the world's second-largest gold miner, Newmont Mining Corp.which he has held since 1995 and which presently constitutes almost a fifth of his stock holdings.                 
                           Newmont is not particularly popular with analysts because its sheer size makes replacing its reserves difficult and because of some questions about its operating costs. The stock is down from above $60 in 2006. 
                           But Allmon typically brushes off what he describes as "a mine pollution flap in Indonesia. This looks like a hold-up. Newmont could walk away and tell the extortionists to stick it." 
                           And Allmon is patient. He writes: "At the present price, I urge all investors to use this lull to lay away NEM shares, for a 5-10 year hold. I'll alert you when to sell ..." 
                                                   In other words, Allmon, who is 86, is thinking 10 years ahead.


Full story - 
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/one-happy-bear/story.aspx?guid=%7B96FA50FE%2D9C81%2D4553%2DA225%2DA88868A85D1D%7D&dist=TNMostRead


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## Sean K (22 May 2007)

International markets at all time highs. Gold going OK, recently testing $700 again. And NEM in the dog house. Any bottom pickers out there? The management of this company should be locked away. What a disaster.

(not holding - looking for turn around)


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## Sean K (7 July 2007)

NEM is the news about fixing their hedge book or something. 

*Could THIS be the bottom?* LOL. I thought I said at the top of the thread? :

What a complete woofer on the chart. Don't get much worse than this, except maybe RTL. Ouch. 

I couldn't confidently put $1 on this until it broke some resistance on the way up. And there's heaps of it. Plus, Bean is forecasting $540 gold and that will effect this of course. 

So tempted to take a gamble and then just manage the position tightly. What a turn around story it could be. Or not. 

Any bottom pickers out there? Anyone?

Article from Reuters:

*Newmont rises on bullish move on gold hedges*


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## Uncle Festivus (7 July 2007)

kennas said:


> So tempted to take a gamble and then just manage the position tightly. What a turn around story it could be. Or not.
> 
> Any bottom pickers out there? Anyone?





kennas, I have watched this one closely for 6 years now, & have held also, and have recently opened new longs on the strength of the weekly chart. A bit of good news on Friday has helped too, so maybe we may get some re-rating to fair value, in spite of the gold price as I think it has been on the nose, unloved & oversold. Time action has purged negative sentiment now, could be a huge double bottom buying opportunity. 
Knowing NEM's luck it will start to come good just as the rest of market takes a breather  & drags it with it.


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## Pommiegranite (7 July 2007)

this stock is a perfect example as to why one should never try to pick a bottom on a downtrend...i.e catch a falling knife.

I learnt the hard way, during the dotcom bubble, when I doubled up after a £3 stock had dropped to £1.80ish. The bottom ended up at 15p!

At times like this, its worth revisiting the fundamentals in great details.

Hey...love the previous posts on this thread calling the bottom...lol


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## Uncle Festivus (8 July 2007)

Pommiegranite said:


> this stock is a perfect example as to why one should never try to pick a bottom on a downtrend...i.e catch a falling knife.
> 
> I learnt the hard way, during the dotcom bubble, when I doubled up after a £3 stock had dropped to £1.80ish. The bottom ended up at 15p!
> 
> ...




Pommie, the main difference between the previous attempts at bottom picking was there was no fundamental reason to change the trend, only loose technicals, if anything. This time it's different, as a major fundamental impediment to both NEM & the gold market has been removed and the market has given it's approval. NEM closed in the US up $2.24 or 5.6% Friday so CDI's should be well supported Monday, and possibly beyond.

PS what was the purpose of your post?


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## Pommiegranite (8 July 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> PS what was the purpose of your post?




An expression of opinion. That's what these discussions boards are for.

Now that you've given an explanation, I have benefited from my post.

Cheers


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## Uncle Festivus (9 July 2007)

*NEWMONT'S move to cut its hedge book obligations to zero is the surest sign yet that the gold price will move higher, industry experts say.*

                          Late last week Newmont announced it had eliminated future contract exposure for some 1.85 million ounces and would shelve its merchant banking business as newly-appointed chief executive Richard O'Brien signalled a change of direction for the world's second biggest gold miner. 
 "These transactions form the foundation of a renewed focus on our core gold business," Mr O'Brien said when revealing the discontinued hedge book. 
 Analysts cheered, and Newmont shares lifted 5.6 per cent in US trading on Friday, despite an admission from Newmont that the changes would lead it to book a $US531 million ($620 million) pre-tax loss on early settlement of the forward contracts, which were all closed out in June. Newmont, which also has a listing in Australia, operates the Jundee, Tanami and Pajingo gold mines and has a 50 per cent stake in the massive Super Pit operation at Kalgoorlie.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,22039389-643,00.html


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## Sean K (12 July 2007)

Broken $4.75 making a higher high, and now testing it as support. A higher low would add more support to a bottom being found. Next resistance $5.00, and downward trends as shown. I'll have to consider a position on a break through $5.00 around the green circle, and manage it from there. Breaking back down through $4.75 and it's back in the dog house again. Woof. 

In the news again about funding for Boddington. Seems there's more positive news comming out than negative atm.

Newmont raising $1b to fund WA project


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## Uncle Festivus (12 July 2007)

I must admit this is a big disappointment, but they must see something ahead that makes them close their hedge book and then spend a billion on the mine. As you say kennas, a higher low would be nice to confirm it. Still, a few good trades from the low in any case.


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## Sean K (19 July 2007)

kennas said:


> Broken $4.75 making a higher high, and now testing it as support. A higher low would add more support to a bottom being found. Next resistance $5.00, and downward trends as shown. I'll have to consider a position on a break through $5.00 around the green circle, and manage it from there. Breaking back down through $4.75 and it's back in the dog house again. Woof.
> 
> In the news again about funding for Boddington. Seems there's more positive news comming out than negative atm.
> 
> Newmont raising $1b to fund WA project



Getting more interesting. I'm still waiting for the break through 5, but might have been a bottom. Fat P came out with another buy on this this week at 4.80 ish. Not sure if that helps...

Various S&R lines shown. The green circled candle might have been the truning point, except for the lack of vol which isn't confirmatory.


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## Uncle Festivus (19 July 2007)

Kennas, I find it best to watch the chart of the US parent NEM instead of AU stats as AU market is lightly traded as far as volume goes, if that's what confirmation you are looking for?

Interesting juncture all the same, with the XAU tentatively breaking out this week as well. But, I think we might have one more pullback with the rest of the market to go yet?


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## Sean K (21 July 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Kennas, I find it best to watch the chart of the US parent NEM instead of AU stats as AU market is lightly traded as far as volume goes, if that's what confirmation you are looking for?
> 
> Interesting juncture all the same, with the XAU tentatively breaking out this week as well. But, I think we might have one more pullback with the rest of the market to go yet?



On that chart I'd call breaking through 42 as a breakout. 

Gold pushing through 680, should send this through 5 on Monday IMO, as long as gold holds up. DOW getting smashed atm so not sure what influence that will have. It's mostly Financials going bearish in the US and general commentary still is bullish on Materials. 

Certainly a potential breakout from the downward trend, but whether it's a deep bottom and sharp rally, or sideways from here ......:dunno:


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## Sean K (26 July 2007)

kennas said:


> Gold pushing through 680, should send this through 5 on Monday IMO, as long as gold holds up. DOW getting smashed atm so not sure what influence that will have. It's mostly Financials going bearish in the US and general commentary still is bullish on Materials.
> 
> Certainly a potential breakout from the downward trend, but whether it's a deep bottom and sharp rally, or sideways from here ......:dunno:



Didn't get there, but a bottom could potentially be in place.

Gold getting flogged at the moment, so I don't expect this to get closer to breaking through today.

Change is in the wind at NEM with the new CEO taking over and weilding the clearing broom significantly already. Sorry, this is a long article but worth a read:



> *Newmont CEO eyes takeovers*
> July 26, 2007
> 
> NEWMONT Mining, the second-largest gold-mining company, needs to rebuild its credibility with investors and could consider takeovers, according to chief executive Richard O'Brien.
> ...



Australian miners NCM and LHG must be in their sights, or at least be on the dart board....

So close to going long on this. Patience, kennas, patience, wait for the break. 

Anyone else see an inverse H&S there? Just a little one...


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## Bush Trader (26 July 2007)

Being a 10:1 Share quoted on the ASX, what effect have we seen relative to the firming $Aus.  Kennas it may have already broken out if you look at the US chart?

Just a thought


Cheers


BT


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## CDG (27 July 2007)

Kennas,
There is indeed a lovely little inverted H&S. 
And there’s an even lovelier one shaping up if it can take out $5.05.
Might need to sit up on the $5 level for a bit to catch its’ breath though. And that might have to wait for another week or so with gold having a rest.
But you gotta think the tide’s turned at last for the biggest unhedged gold producer in the world..

Cheers


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## Uncle Festivus (27 July 2007)

A view of the weekly US chart, shows leading the pack for a while then underperforming for several months now. Tentative breakout if you are that way inclined, but will probably depend on broader market correction(s?) not contaminating gold stocks in general, 'going forward'.


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## Sean K (30 July 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> A view of the weekly US chart, shows leading the pack for a while then underperforming for several months now. Tentative breakout if you are that way inclined, but will probably depend on broader market correction(s?) not contaminating gold stocks in general, 'going forward'.



Damn correction has come to spoil the party here, but if the doomsayers are right and the $US turns into Monopoly money, then perhaps that will be the resurgence of POG and the turnaround for NEM. Will be interesting to see if others feel the same and start taking positions...Maybe this moving will prelude the move in POG. Watch and shoot!

Wonder if $4.75 ish support will be held today?


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## Bush Trader (30 July 2007)

Are you a holder yet Kennas?

I'm not a bottom picker, however the Yanks have a poor history of understanding gold stocks.  NEM may be seen a suitable tree to shelter under for many now that it has de-hedged.  I think once the dust settles there may be an investment refocus on US materials, lower dollar, better for exports. The bond market will become boring very quickly.


Cheers


BT


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## Sean K (31 July 2007)

Bush Trader said:


> Are you a holder yet Kennas?
> 
> I'm not a bottom picker, however the Yanks have a poor history of understanding gold stocks.  NEM may be seen a suitable tree to shelter under for many now that it has de-hedged.  I think once the dust settles there may be an investment refocus on US materials, lower dollar, better for exports. The bond market will become boring very quickly.
> 
> ...



No, not until a break through $5.00. I _may _consider a small bite if it makes a higher low right now. It would have to bounce well from here tomorrow with a white candle on volume to close near $5.00. I'd then add to position on break up. Not likely to do this unless something positive is happening behind the scenes for POG, more good news is released, and general market jitters subside. If, if, if...


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## Lachlan6 (31 July 2007)

Gday Kennas. At work so cant post chart but will do later. But Head and Shoulders reversal pattern going on? Wait and see I spose. Also check out the huge divergence in the MACD. All bets well and truly off if $4.50 broken. Hmmmmm....


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## Sean K (31 July 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> Gday Kennas. At work so cant post chart but will do later. But Head and Shoulders reversal pattern going on? Wait and see I spose. Also check out the huge divergence in the MACD. All bets well and truly off if $4.50 broken. Hmmmmm....



Yes, I see. Looks good. My target from the H&S is only around $5.25 so it's not reall a biggy, but would change the trend perhaps. Cheers.


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## Sean K (20 August 2007)

NEM just broken $5.00. 

Needs an EOD close above for me to get excited enough to push a button.


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## Sean K (22 August 2007)

Made one close above and failed, last finished $4.96, so I'm still waiting. POG going short term down now, needs to hold above $640 for a an uptrend to be made possible. Breaking that will be a bit bearish I feel.


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## Uncle Festivus (23 August 2007)

Mmmmmm....... are you excited yet Kennas?


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## Sean K (24 August 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Mmmmmm....... are you excited yet Kennas?



I am, but I won't be holding with an EOD close back under $4.90. Looks like it's heading that way.


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## Sean K (29 August 2007)

kennas said:


> I am, but I won't be holding with an EOD close back under $4.90. Looks like it's heading that way.



Closed 4.88 and I'm out.

Rumours that Barrick are eyeing this have lifted it overnight, so I am going to watch closely. Where there's smoke there's fire with these things....


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## Uncle Festivus (29 August 2007)

kennas said:


> Closed 4.88 and I'm out.
> 
> Rumours that Barrick are eyeing this have lifted it overnight, so I am going to watch closely. Where there's smoke there's fire with these things....





Doh! Up 16c today. 

....Andrew Wilkinson, a senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group, said that the rumor mill started when call options for Newmont Mining began trading heavily late Monday. “Given the surge in demand for Newmont options, the right to buy shares in the stock have traded six times as much as the rights to sell shares in the company today,” he said.

It may not be Barrick but someone is accumulating as per previous chart volume. That's 2 rumours in the last 6 months, heating up with the gold price


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## Sean K (29 August 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Doh! Up 16c today.



Doh!! Back in! 

Doh!

Doh!

:homer:

and I think the markets going further down.

DOH!!!


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## buggalug (30 August 2007)

Hey Everyone,

I got an email from ComSec telling me my stop loss was cancelled, I log in and this is the reason:

30/08/2007 7:10:54 PM: Purged: ASX purged the underlying stock

Is there something I don't know or Comsec has just stuffed up?

Cheers


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## Uncle Festivus (30 August 2007)

buggalug said:


> Hey Everyone,
> 
> I got an email from ComSec telling me my stop loss was cancelled, I log in and this is the reason:
> 
> ...




I'm thinking it looks like the 20 day expiry for your order has just elapsed & the order has been purged? 
(20 Trading Days for standard accounts or 5 Trading Days for Margin Lending Accounts).


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## buggalug (30 August 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> I'm thinking it looks like the 20 day expiry for your order has just elapsed & the order has been purged?
> (20 Trading Days for standard accounts or 5 Trading Days for Margin Lending Accounts).




Ah ok, I didn't realise that. Although under the order it says this:
Trigger Expires:  	 28/08/2008  	
Trigger Status 	Purged


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## Sean K (31 August 2007)

This project is coming along OK. Holding above $5 is encouraging. I'm not getting toooo excited at this time though, there's still a long way to go for this to be long term trending up. Short term though, looks OK. Could we have found a bottom?? Fingers crossed. (now there's a good trading plan! LOL)


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## Sean K (2 September 2007)

Another view of resistance on the way back up. Looks like between $5.25 and $5.50 is going to provide some static. 

I'm still not overly confident of a change of trend though. I'm still cautious of a fall back through $5.00 which means it's still going down, or a start of a sideways trend. 

Early days in a potential recovery story.


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## explod (2 September 2007)

Add the fundamental argument and you ought to see a white candle up 5 odd cents tomorrow.

Gold price recovered some in late trading Friday to end up on the week

Talk of US interest rate cut will see US dollar fall a bit more in the next day or so which will be positive for gold.

End of holiday season in US on Teusday will see volumes rise which will offset plunge team depressing gold price.

We will see what pans out, should be an interesting week ahead


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## Uncle Festivus (7 September 2007)

NEM added to S&P All Ords & ASX300.


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## Bush Trader (7 September 2007)

NEM - Now included in the S&P/ASX 300 index, plus addition to All Ords.  Looks as though this will add to strength in SP in the short term along with Gold price break to the upside, trading up 3.2% today

Cheers


BT


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## Uncle Festivus (7 September 2007)

Bush Trader said:


> NEM - Now included in the S&P/ASX 300 index, plus addition to All Ords.  Looks as though this will add to strength in SP in the short term along with Gold price break to the upside, trading up 3.2% today
> 
> Cheers
> 
> ...




Timing BT 

Things starting to align for NEM, and their best prospects are 6 months away still.


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## Sean K (7 September 2007)

kennas said:


> Another view of resistance on the way back up. Looks like between $5.25 and $5.50 is going to provide some static.
> 
> I'm still not overly confident of a change of trend though. I'm still cautious of a fall back through $5.00 which means it's still going down, or a start of a sideways trend.
> 
> Early days in a potential recovery story.



Gapped up over $2.35 resistance and 200d ma linked to POG cracking $700. I'd expect some consolidation around here by this chart, pending POG continuing to jump as it did last night....Would like to see it hold above the 200d ma and then we might be able to start talking about 'up trend'. Long way to go though. 

(holding)


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## Sean K (23 September 2007)

kennas said:


> Another view of resistance on the way back up. Looks like between $5.25 and $5.50 is going to provide some static.
> 
> I'm still not overly confident of a change of trend though. I'm still cautious of a fall back through $5.00 which means it's still going down, or a start of a sideways trend.
> 
> Early days in a potential recovery story.



Chart wise, we would have to say the midium term down trend has turned and we're heading in another direction. Long term, I'm still not comfortable to say that the down trend has finished. As expected $5.25-5.50 providing some static, but a break through $5.50 will be very encouraging. I might personally call an 'up trend' on a break through $6.00. 

EW wise, I would be interested in a perspective. On the long term chart, we might be seeing a W1....... 

Looks like we might have called a bottom at this stage.


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## Sean K (23 September 2007)

This post on 7 Jul:


Pommiegranite said:


> this stock is a perfect example as to why one should never try to pick a bottom on a downtrend...i.e catch a falling knife.
> 
> ...........................
> 
> Hey...love the previous posts on this thread calling the bottom...lol



 28 June - 02 Jul may have been the bottom perhaps.

This is a perfect example of why people should never say never, he he 

I do agree about picking bottoms, but we didn't conclusively do that, and maybe still haven't. The odds are adding up to change of trend from this time. 

Sorry PG!


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## Sean K (25 September 2007)

kennas said:


> As expected $5.25-5.50 providing some static, but a break through $5.50 will be very encouraging. I might personally call an 'up trend' on a break through $6.00.
> 
> Looks like we might have called a bottom at this stage.



Tested $5.50 and held, probably support now. Next resistance at $6.00.

Will be interesting to see how it performs during another hickup. Hopefully these long term resistance levels provide the expected support on the way down now.


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## Sean K (27 September 2007)

kennas said:


> Tested $5.50 and held, probably support now. Next resistance at $6.00.
> 
> Will be interesting to see how it performs during another hickup. Hopefully these long term resistance levels provide the expected support on the way down now.



Poor report in the US overnight which will effect NEM today. Cash costs have increased and reserves may be lowered. I haven't read their report but just the news items.

5.50 support to be severely tested.  5.25 may even be pushed. Still bullish on the chart till that support line broken.


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## Uncle Festivus (27 September 2007)

It's not good but could be oversold? I'd say it could go as low as $5.10 here today which would represent a good opprtunity. 

It highlight's a growing problem faced by all gold producers and signals that a new round of gold company consolidation is about to get underway, if POG keeps going. (In inflation adjusted figures the party hasn't even started yet)


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## Sean K (27 September 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> It highlight's a growing problem faced by all gold producers and signals that a new round of gold company consolidation is about to get underway, if POG keeps going. (In inflation adjusted figures the party hasn't even started yet)



I agree here. There's hardly been a major discovery the past few years, and the goldies are looking for ways to grow. With cash costs up, and development expensive, it's a no brainer. Just a matter of who's next.


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## Bush Trader (27 September 2007)

kennas said:


> Poor report in the US overnight which will effect NEM today. Cash costs have increased and reserves may be lowered. I haven't read their report but just the news items.
> 
> 5.50 support to be severely tested.  5.25 may even be pushed. Still bullish on the chart till that support line broken.




Support Broken, it will be interesting to see where it is at at the close.


Cheers.................................


BT


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## Sean K (27 September 2007)

Bush Trader said:


> Support Broken, it will be interesting to see where it is at at the close.
> 
> 
> Cheers.................................
> ...



I'm out. I'm only into this due to the price action and I have no faith in them after the past year, so best I wait till it resumes an uptrend. Might have pre-emted it a bit, but the gap down shows a lot of poor sentiment IMO.


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## buggalug (27 September 2007)

Bush Trader said:


> Support Broken, it will be interesting to see where it is at at the close.
> 
> 
> Cheers.................................
> ...




My nice wide stop loss got hit, disappointed as it had been doing everything right up till today. We tend to close at around the US price, so around $5.12, but who knows today.


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## Bush Trader (27 September 2007)

kennas said:


> I'm out. I'm only into this due to the price action and I have no faith in them after the past year, so best I wait till it resumes an uptrend. Might have pre-emted it a bit, but the gap down shows a lot of poor sentiment IMO.




You give up to easily!

What not try a hold and see approach, as you yourself has stated M&A activity in the sector could be exponential if the Gold bugs are correct in their estimations.


Good Luck


BT


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## Sean K (27 September 2007)

Bush Trader said:


> You give up to easily!
> 
> What not try a hold and see approach, as you yourself has stated M&A activity in the sector could be exponential if the Gold bugs are correct in their estimations.
> 
> ...



Yes, I may miss out, but I am being very cautious atm. I think more bad news from the US will skittle us, so I'm keeping some equity to make the most of the potential opportunity. Sorry, I'm not a hold and wait man, I'm an active investor. 

Also, NEM will be a predator, not a prey, which potentially is bad news in the short term for their position. I'd much rather be on a takeover target. 

I could very well buy back in this afternoon if it recovers magnificantly.


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## Bush Trader (27 September 2007)

kennas said:


> Yes, I may miss out, but I am being very cautious atm. I think more bad news from the US will skittle us, so I'm keeping some equity to make the most of the potential opportunity. Sorry, I'm not a hold and wait man, I'm an active investor.
> 
> Also, NEM will be a predator, not a prey, which potentially is bad news in the short term for their position. I'd much rather be on a takeover target.
> 
> I could very well buy back in this afternoon if it recovers magnificantly.




You never no, BHP may want to extend their Gold portfolio.  I bought my first parcel of NEM some time ago at 4.15, I also own some at 5.86, so I suppose we just have a different wat of playing the same game of cards.  Being a farmer I work on averages.


Cheers



BT


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## Uncle Festivus (27 September 2007)

kennas said:


> Also, NEM will be a predator, not a prey, which potentially is bad news in the short term for their position. I'd much rather be on a takeover target.




You never know Kennas, stranger things have happened, and they still are number 2 in the world. Who knows, this may just be the right time for a predator to pounce on a 'distressed?' situation. My average entry is $2.60, so I'm in for the long haul (I'm afraid it's looking like that now )


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## Sean K (27 September 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> You never know Kennas, stranger things have happened, and they still are number 2 in the world. Who knows, this may just be the right time for a predator to pounce on a 'distressed?' situation. My average entry is $2.60, so I'm in for the long haul (I'm afraid it's looking like that now )



Yep, I agree here too. She's looking very sick amongst the internationals...

Maybe we can all chip in a buy them out?

With the assistance of NCM/LHG merged?

Damn it, why did I sell? 

I'LL BE BACK! (with arnie accent)


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## Sean K (11 October 2007)

I haven't re-entered yet. Waiting for some sign it's going back up again. First sign might be back over $5.25. Before then I'm still concerned that they are still on the same path they've been for the past year. That is; higher costs, lower reserves, and falling short of expectations. Give me a good ann!~!!

I am a bit disappointed that they've decided to takeover a Canadian instead of NCM or LGL. I have held high expectations that it would probably be NCM with a bidding war to follow...I think both NCM and LGL have quite a bit of takeover spec in their sp at the moment, and this may take a bit of shine off them. 



> *Newmont in $1.7bn bid for Canadian goldminer*
> Jamie Freed
> October 11, 2007
> 
> ...


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## Sean K (12 October 2007)

Unusual volume spikes on this the past 3 days. Rarely trades over 500k shares. I think the one a couple of days ago was due to the Canadian buy but yesterday's spike with 2% gain looks like good support.


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## Uncle Festivus (1 November 2007)

Finally some good news for the bleeder, up nearly 10% in the US overnight on doubling of profit ann - should see it reclaim $5.50 mark today?

http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...IDST_0_NEWMONT-RESULTS-UPDATE-4.XML&type=qcna


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## explod (1 November 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Finally some good news for the bleeder, up nearly 10% in the US overnight on doubling of profit ann - should see it reclaim $5.50 mark today?
> 
> http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...IDST_0_NEWMONT-RESULTS-UPDATE-4.XML&type=qcna





Yes Uncle, and I feel it is probably one of the best safe gold plays at the moment due to its diversification offshore which makes it less prone to the strengthening Aussie Dollar.   As the US gold price climbs above US$800 a great deal of general offshore investor attention will drive it strongly as well.


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## explod (6 November 2007)

kennas said:


> Unusual volume spikes on this the past 3 days. Rarely trades over 500k shares. I think the one a couple of days ago was due to the Canadian buy but yesterday's spike with 2% gain looks like good support.




To my mind kennas NEM is now a buy as the dogi which has formed on the weekly chart is above the down trend line.   Could expect some resitance at $6 and $7 dollars but a firming gold price should see this float up to $8 in the next month or so.   A $US gold price above the old all time close of about 860will see a good break out as the US investment community will start to look at this stock due to its diversity.


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## Sean K (7 November 2007)

I obviously sold this prematurely when they announced the last inventory and cost issues. 

Trading around $5.85....


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## explod (8 November 2007)

Is now going as anticipated and one of the few gold stocks in positive territory today.  Have now topped up to 100% of my share holdings.  Sold all others in the last week due to market doubt.  

Probably worth putting in the breakout thread but I have not the package to put in the trend line.


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## Uncle Festivus (25 January 2008)

> Late last year, Newmont Mining Corp. did two significant deals that transformed the company: the acquisition of Miramar Mining Corp. and the spin-off of Franco-Nevada Corp. BMO Capital Markets worked on both transactions, and now that they are complete, analyst David Haughton is initiating coverage with an "outperform" rating and a target of US$65.00 a share.



http://network.nationalpost.com/np/...quot-outperform-quot-after-two-big-deals.aspx


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## Uncle Festivus (25 April 2008)

$65 is a bit optimistic in the short term, but they look to have delivered on the profit front - and the share price is still pathetic.



> NEW YORK ”” Newmont Mining, one of the world's top gold producers, says its first-quarter earnings surged as gold prices spiked amid weakness in global financial markets and the U.S. dollar.
> Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp. says it earned $370-million (U.S.), or 81 cents per share, up sharply from year-ago profit of $68-million, or 15 cents per share. Earnings from continuing operations totalled 80 cents per share in the latest period.
> Revenue climbed to $1.94-billion from $1.22-billion, as the average price per ounce of gold jumped to $933 from $649 a year earlier.
> Thomson Financial says analysts expected a profit of 54 cents per share on revenue of $1.66 billion.


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## Sean K (25 April 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> $65 is a bit optimistic in the short term, but they look to have delivered on the profit front - and the share price is still pathetic.



I assume a 12 month target UF? NEM has been pretty disappointing since breaking that downtrend a few months ago. Was short term up, but now back to mid term sideways. POG correcting as should be expected, unless we're all wrong and the US and world economy fixes itself up and the world starts holding hands.


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## explod (25 April 2008)

Newmont is a good example of the sentiment created by Wall Street.   The numbers are good, it is a well established , well run diversifies gold producer with imrpoving gold sales.  It will be one of the first to jump into when the dispair finally gets through to investors in the US.   My tip is around the end of the year after the US Presidential election.    

I noticed it did not move a great deal when gold hits its peak earlier in the year and that confirmed the view I now have.

It will take the Newmonts to lead, then will follow the NCMs, LGLs etc, then the mid caps and down the line.   After the big jump it was the eventual hit down the line that made the small caps go up 100 times back in 1980.


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## Atomic (24 November 2010)

Seems nem (newmont) has had a name change but can't seem to find it as yet.
Does anyone have a link or some info pls ?


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