# Takeover Targets for 2008



## stargazer (21 December 2007)

Hi 

People have any thoughts on the potential Takeover targets for 2008.

Take a stab:

AQA takeover of CUL

ILU take over of BMX

Cheers
SG


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## prawn_86 (21 December 2007)

Can you please detail why the company is a target, and why the other would want to acquire it?

Just to make it less of a ramping thread 

thanks all


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## watsonc (21 December 2007)

AMP is ripe for a takeover. The company needs a bit of a shakeup.  It's been mentioned numerous times in the press that a large bank would love to have the super money inflows coming into it.

AMP's shareprice has gone sideways for most of the year.  I think the only problem is AMP would cost a fortune to buy out.


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## noirua (25 December 2007)

For 2008 the chief sectors, for takeovers, will be, IMHO, coal and iron ore.
Virtually every quoted coal miner, iron ore miner or for that matter, every conceivable coal or iron ore discovered prospect or mine is in the sights of an Asian, Far Eastern company or Western enterprise. 
Ratings of some companies are high and the world will, it is forecast, produce 35 million more tonnes of coal in 2008. Further thought do however point to the continued holdups at Eastern Australian ports putting pressure on supplies throughout 2008 and into 2009.
Into 2010 the Newcastle Port upgrading should come onstream and coal from Moolarben and Anvil hill, as well as held back production in NSW., will come onstream. Hold-ups at some ports in Queensland will improve by this date as well as production from new mines.


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## Aussiejeff (25 December 2007)

I see the coal, oil & gas sectors (both LPG and CSM) being very active take over-wise in 2008. Especially if the markets have more rocky times and SP's cop the occasional hammering. IMO there are too many small resource companies out there ATM. The big sharks will be circling this year....


AJ


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## Ken (25 December 2007)

I will say the obvious ones

OXR / ZFX 

BXB / TOL

BOL possibly a target if price drifts lower.


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## Sean K (25 December 2007)

BMN by RIO, or Areva.
RIO will be swallowed by BHP.
BOQ by a big 4 
OXR by Xtrata
NCM by Barrick, or Goldfields, or
LGL and NCM merge 
BDG by SBM

Plus others to be mentioned...


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## Lucky_Country (25 December 2007)

WPL
OXR
SMY
KZL
ZFX


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## vishalt (25 December 2007)

Is SANTOS allowed to be taken over?

If so then STO, WPL, BHP, Rio, OXR, ZFX, KZL, FMG


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## Julia (25 December 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> Can you please detail why the company is a target, and why the other would want to acquire it?
> 
> Just to make it less of a ramping thread
> 
> thanks all



Repeating this request from Prawn to everyone who has posted since then.
Can you please say who you expect to do the taking over and why.
Thanks.


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## grace (26 December 2007)

Adding to the majority already noted above, I'm going to say IMA  Image Resources.  Why??  Well, at first, this one was the perfect takeover for Iluka or Tiwest given their mines next door are drying up and they have the infrastructure next door, without the resource.  This is the company that has been hitting very good grades at Cooljarloo for mineral sands.  Still don't have the initial JORC out but guesses are 100 - 200 million tonne grading average 10% (this estimate is per media reports only, not ASX).  This should be out soon.  Neighbours are mining up to 5% I believe.
However, I note in recent media reports (not on the ASX, just newspaper) the MD has had discussions with BHP, given that the resource is expected to now be of such a size as to call for a standalone project.


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## doctorj (26 December 2007)

I agree that AMP is ripe for the picking.  They have access to a legislative gold mine via super.  NAB have been keen on them for years and it'd tie in nicely with MLC/MasterKeyCustom.

QBE and IAG is a likely match as well. QBE doen't have so much domestic stuff and IAG has been a bit of a basketcase and its share price has suffered as a result.  In general, I'd expect more tie ups of smaller insurers and mutuals into the bigger players and some of the larger unlisted insurers to continue the trend of listing (in WA, RACI and HBF come to mind).

If the four-pillars policy goes, I'd say ANZ is likely to be the first target given their relatively high customer exposure relative to their size.  NAB again is a likely player, but I wouldn't write off a Chinese bank making a play. ICBC spent $5.6b on a South African Bank this year...

Without being too specific, I think the smaller end of the O&G world is due for some consolidation as long as oil prices stay high.  Reserves are getting harder and more expensive to find yet the mid to small end of the market tends to trade quite cheap on a 2p basis. The likes of TAP, AWE, BPT, ROC could fall into this catagory.  Then you have crapshots like PCL with excellent acerage and no money to drill could also become prey. At the large end, I believe Woodside will need to be a predator to avoid falling prey for the large, high quality gas assets in WA's north. CNOOC or the like would love having such a reserve so close to home.


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## prs (27 December 2007)

Merry Christmas Everybody
I'm curious that guys are still calling coal, oil amd gas as a resource that they perceive as being a commodity to take off in 2008. This may very well be the case but what about Uranium? Don't China, India and Russia need this important commodity also? 
What do people think about MTN being a potential takeover seeing as it has JORC and is working its way towards mining in a few years?


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## Real1ty (27 December 2007)

prs said:


> Merry Christmas Everybody
> I'm curious that guys are still calling coal, oil amd gas as a resource that they perceive as being a commodity to take off in 2008. This may very well be the case but what about Uranium? Don't China, India and Russia need this important commodity also?
> What do people think about MTN being a potential takeover seeing as it has JORC and is working its way towards mining in a few years?




I was until recently a holder of MTN.
It's a great resource they have but faces a couple hurdles.
If it was starting to look like they might get a mining license, then they could easily become a T/O target but prior to that, i doubt it.

They did have an offer earlier this year but that was poorly timed and the first offer ridiculous.
The share price took off and the bid was upped to $3.69, from memory, but the shares hit almost $7.00, if only i had of sold at that price .

It's not out of the question but i don't think it will happen any time soon, if it all.

Merry Christmas.


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## pan (27 December 2007)

Pxs
biotech company that has recieved got results from their trials, could be a target as they are set to start production in 2008/9


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## Sean K (3 March 2008)

Well, the RIO by BHP one is happening.

OXR and ZFX is happening, although more a merger by the look.

I'm still tipping LGL by NCM, or a merger, or one of them will be on the table. 

Some of the financial services players must be looking tasty.


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## stix1771 (7 March 2008)

I'll add:

PNA - Oxifex (once merger settled)
WSA - not sure, but again maybe Oxifex (Stated Nickle was a target)
SMY

Good Luck...


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## ROE (7 March 2008)

watsonc said:


> AMP is ripe for a takeover. The company needs a bit of a shakeup.  It's been mentioned numerous times in the press that a large bank would love to have the super money inflows coming into it.
> 
> AMP's shareprice has gone sideways for most of the year.  I think the only problem is AMP would cost a fortune to buy out.




I dont want AMP to be taken over  .... bargain basement price last couple days and I want to ride it to the top like FLT  
I oppose all take over unless they offer AMP at $12-$13 a shares  not that my votes count that much


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## bvbfan (9 March 2008)

OXR had 3-4years to take out PNA I doubt the new entity would be interested in small fry now.

I'll stick my neck out and say EQN is the prize they are after now


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## 56gsa (1 April 2008)

from ABN...

Recent company bids and the next likely candidates

*Completed / failed bids *
Xstrata / Jubilee Mines √ 
Xstrata / Resource Pacific √ 
Xstrata / Austral Coal √ 
Palmary / Cons Minerals √ 
Xstrata / Gloucester Coal Ã— 
Murchison / Midwest Ã— 
Northgate/ Perseverance √ 

*Announced / in progress *
Oxiana / Zinifex 
Lihir / Equigold 
Zinifex / Alleigiance 
Perilya / CBH Resources 
PT Antam+Zhongjin / Herald 
Indophil / Lion Selection 

*Likely candidates?*
Equinox Minerals
Western Areas
Pan Australia
Sally Malay Mining
Albidon Minerals
Felix Resources
Platinum Australia


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## Kauri (15 April 2008)

not so much T/O... but I wonder if they are sneaking into our energy Co's??

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/15/cnbp115.xml 

heers
...........Kauri


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## Sean K (16 April 2008)

doctorj said:


> QBE and IAG is a likely match as well. QBE doen't have so much domestic stuff and IAG has been a bit of a basketcase and its share price has suffered as a result.  In general, I'd expect more tie ups of smaller insurers and mutuals into the bigger players and some of the larger unlisted insurers to continue the trend of listing (in WA, RACI and HBF come to mind).



Good pick doctor.


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## Markcoinoz (20 April 2008)

One that could possibly hit the radar later this year is UMC.

M/C Undiluted $132mln.

Aiming for Jorc Railway Prospect 50 - 100 mln tns Highgrade Hermatite.
Due around June - July.
Also in fantastic position near BHP C Block and close to FMG & RIO.
Many other highgrade prospects within their tenements including Jumbo Junction.

They also have the Bauxite tenements around the Mitchell Plateau.
25% JV with Norsk Hydro.

At present they are still at the fairly early stages.
However, over the last few months there has been a fair bit of accumulation.

It could be in anticipation of the Jorc for Railway.

Unfortunately, if UMC is a T/O target it is highly likely that the real value of the company will not have been realised

I hope it doesn't happen for another year or two.

Cheers markcoinoz


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## Markcoinoz (20 April 2008)

Just another one to keep an eye on.

IMO, its a DOG!!!

AEX.  I would say most would agree with me.

LOL!!

M/C = $7,330,456

Cash in bank = $1.2mln as @ 31st Dec 2007

Investments = 22,500,000 MLX x .36 = $8.1mln.

The main point is they are not going to go under anytime soon even though the S/P is .012

Now what would happen if over time the S/P should slip down to .008 and MLX's S/P should increase to .40 which is only another 4 cents?

M/C  would be $4.86mln
Investment would be $9mln

Food for thought even for a dog.

Cheers markcoinoz


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## reece55 (20 April 2008)

Markcoinoz said:


> Just another one to keep an eye on.
> 
> IMO, its a DOG!!!
> 
> ...




Mark
I appreciate that you have pointed out the value matrix here for AEX, but really this is a thread for takeover targets. AEX just looks like one of many penny dreadfuls short of cash and full of investments in other penny dreadfuls that are illiquid. 

I'm going to nominate Sigma at this point.... valuation wise, it has to be the cheapest of the healthcare type stocks going around. They have large market share, can't see them going under. Interest costs are an issue, but their facilities are costing them 10 - 11%... a better funding mix would make this business a better proposition (plus a better credit rating to enable easier access to lower cost debt).

Cheers


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## Markcoinoz (21 April 2008)

reece55 said:


> Mark
> I appreciate that you have pointed out the value matrix here for AEX, but really this is a thread for takeover targets. AEX just looks like one of many penny dreadfuls short of cash and full of investments in other penny dreadfuls that are illiquid.
> 
> I'm going to nominate Sigma at this point.... valuation wise, it has to be the cheapest of the healthcare type stocks going around. They have large market share, can't see them going under. Interest costs are an issue, but their facilities are costing them 10 - 11%... a better funding mix would make this business a better proposition (plus a better credit rating to enable easier access to lower cost debt).
> ...




Hi reece55,

Before you shoot down the messenger, it always pays to do a bit of research if you have something to say.

1)  AEX has one investment - not full of investments.
2)  MLX M/C is $424.25mln - Not a Penny Dreadful in my book
3)  MLX illiquid?  $19.49mln Cash in bank.  Thats not what i would call illiquid.

I only made the point that AEX was heading into undervalued territory not because of its assets, but rather its investment in MLX.  MLX is far from being a penny dreadful or illiquid.

Anyway reece55, i will leave it at that.

Cheers markcoinoz


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## grace (21 April 2008)

I'm going to add PES Pure Energy to the list.

Why?  Well, Arrow Energy AOE already own a blocking stake in PES, and they have farmed in on some of PES's acreage (two drills so far).

PES have just drilled Holli1 (100% PES) intersecting the Walloon Coal Measures with 35m of coal seam, with free gas flow, good gas content etc.  I hear Richard Cottee (MD of QGC) suggesting that the Walloon Coal fields hold the best coal seam gas in the world.  That's what he quotes, not me, but without a doubt, it is very good. 

PES    MC = $40 million
AOE    MC = $1.6 billion

PES own a lot of prospective ground where the big guys (QGC,AOE,SHG) have found heaps of gas.  

I think someone will take out PES, and I believe it will be Arrow.


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## steven1234 (21 April 2008)

I would add CQT to the list.  South Africa's Gold fields is using the Opes ANZ selloff as an opportunity to buy into CQT and it looks like they will make a play some time in the future.  Management has been in Court trying to stop ANZ selling more shares to Goldfields recently.    

There must be many others that will be targeted using the Opes ANZ selloff as the vehicle to get on board.  ANZ is holding shares in many small caps for which there is little market to swollow up the amount of shares it wishes to sell.  Perfect opportunity to have a go at a small cap company.


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## dj_420 (21 April 2008)

bvbfan said:


> OXR had 3-4years to take out PNA I doubt the new entity would be interested in small fry now.
> 
> I'll stick my neck out and say EQN is the prize they are after now




I think you would be right there bvbfan, EQN a massive copper play about to come online with production in a tight market.

I am in on this basis, I like the pure play copper stocks at the moment. EQN production will put them at the largest copper producer in Africa and in the top 15 in the world.


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## Nicks (30 April 2008)

I think value wise and return wise APA is a good target.

It has been seriously undervalued for some time, and I think yesterday's 13% or so jump in SP has reflected that.


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## bvbfan (1 May 2008)

Have a feeling that the action today in NCM may be the precursor to a substantial holder notice and possible big by a major.


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## steven1234 (1 May 2008)

Goldfields has just increased its holding in CQT to 19.06% (from 13.74%).


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## Sskim (18 May 2008)

I agree with Steve CQT could be a takeover target. GF are just up under 20 % holdings now.

Given mebbe a 20 % chance that ANZ might have re-instate JT with his shares, this may just tipple GF hands to declare themselves.

Coupled with power problem in SA which have had a very big impact on GF production

Sskim


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## gtsman_05 (30 May 2008)

G.W.R will be a target by Portman Mining

- Currently have a 14.9% stake
- Todays announcement of a Foreign Investement Review Board application to acquire up to 19.99%.

Portman currently stating they are have no intention of taking over, but they would say that wouldn't they.

Stock is very tightly held with just 115m shares on issue.


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## AnDy62 (5 June 2008)

IRN is a nice t/o target.

Xstrata has already tried a $1 a share bid. Compicated scenario, involving three parties, but if IRN fails to t/o LST, Xstrata should pounce again. IRN have a 34% stake in the big Tampakan (Copper/gold/nickel) project, and IRN's share of IGV is estimated at $43b


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