# MEL - Metgasco Limited



## pussycat2005

Check today's announcement 
came out of a trading halt

was up 50%

A billion dollar farmout deal


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## pussycat2005

*Re: Metgasco Limited (MEL)*

METGASCO AND CS ENERGY ANNOUNCE FARM-IN &
GAS SALE DEAL

• CS Energy to farm-in to PEL 16 with an appraisal commitment of $11 million.

• Goal to establish 540 Petajoules in 2P gas reserves within 15 months. This is in addition to Metgasco’s current commitment to establish 2P reserves of 100 Petajoules over the next 4 months.
• Heads of agreement on gas sale of 18 Petajoules per year to the Swanbank power station in Queensland.
• Total value of gas sale agreement over $1 billion.

Metgasco (ASX:MEL) is pleased to announce that it has entered into a farm-in agreement with CS Energy worth $11 million. The goal of the farm-in is to prove 540 petajoules (PJ) of 2P gas reserves to supply 18 PJ of gas per year to CS Energy which represents a gas sale value of over A$1 billion over the proposed 20 year term.

Through this farm-in agreement, Metgasco plans to increase its 2P gas reserves to 660 PJ over the next 15 months.

In addition, a new gas pipeline between NSW and Queensland will be built and owned by Metgasco to supply gas to the Swanbank Power Station in Queensland.

Under the farm-in agreement, CS Energy will spend $11 million in two stages to earn an initial 15% interest in the coal seam gas rights to three graticular blocks within PEL 16 near the northern NSW town of Casino. The farm-in area comprises approximately 27% of the surface area of PEL 16. The first stage will entail drilling 10 exploration wells in the farm-in area. The second stage will entail conducting a pilot appraisal program on a number of coal seams which have not been the focus of the Company’s activities to date. The goal of the appraisal stage of the farm-in is to establish 2P gas reserves of approximately 540 Petajoules.

Once these reserves are established, which is expected to take 15 months, CS Energy intends to invest a further $94.5 million to earn an additional 35% interest in the farm-in area by funding development of the field for the purposes of gas supply to Queensland. Metgasco 1ഊwill continue to be the Operator of the field. Metgasco will immediately commence development work on the proposed gas pipeline to Queensland with a goal to deliver gas by 2010. Metgasco and CS Energy will finalise a gas sale agreement over the next 6 months.

David Johnson, Metgasco Managing Director, said: “We are extremely pleased to welcome CS Energy as our farm-in partner in the Clarence Moreton basin. CS Energy understands the coal seam gas business and has been at the forefront in contracting with coal seam gas companies in Queensland. It is a strong demonstration of CS Energy’s confidence in the coal seam gas industry and in the commercial opportunity offered by Metgasco.”

“The investment by CS Energy will double the exploration expenditure spent on our field to date and will dramatically fast-track the commercialisation of our Casino operations by underwriting both the development of our gas reserves and the construction of key gas transportation infrastructure,” Mr Johnson said.

Mr Johnson said: “Metgasco holds the largest certified gas reserves in NSW and this project will bring a significant percentage of our 3P gas reserves into the 2P category, which is required to enter into gas sale contracts. Currently we have established 22 PJ of certified 2P gas reserves. These reserves are for a single seam in a small area at South Casino. We are about to commence drilling at South Casino to expand our 2P reserves to 100 PJ which will establish sufficient reserves to supply the Richmond Valley Power Station. Our project with CS Energy is in the north of the tenement area and will significantly expand our gas reserves. Within 15 months the Company will have established over 660 PJ of 2P gas reserves. Metgasco will continue to focus on gas sale opportunities from additional gas resources in the Clarence Moreton basin, which contains up to 5,000 PJ of coal seam gas, in addition to conventional gas.”

Metgasco’s field has the largest independently certified gas reserves in NSW. This commitment will fast track the development of a major new source of gas supply for both Queensland and New South Wales. It will also contribute to regional development and employment in the Northern Rivers region in which Metgasco’s project is located. The project is the closest gas supplier to the coastal regions of South East Queensland and North East New South Wales which are the fastest growing energy markets in Australia.

Metgasco has secured Mitchells Rig No 107 to undertake this drilling program which is expected to commence in January 2007.


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## Alien

*Re: Metgasco Limited (MEL)*

Market cap around $40m even at 50c/share doesn't seem that expensive considering the magnitude of the ann. 

I am considering purchasing some of these. Anybody else have any thoughts on the value here?


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## pussycat2005

This is still being ignored

cracked 68 cents today

presently trading at 64


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## pussycat2005

*Re: Metgasco Limited (MEL)*



			
				Alien said:
			
		

> Market cap around $40m even at 50c/share doesn't seem that expensive considering the magnitude of the ann.
> 
> I am considering purchasing some of these. Anybody else have any thoughts on the value here?



 alien did you purchase ?  this is heading to $1.00 plus short term... is my guess... strong support at each price spike ...
cracked 70 cents today... still under the radar..


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## Phoenix

I think this one will easily crack 80c. Great spotting.


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## Alien

*Re: Metgasco Limited (MEL)*



			
				pussycat2005 said:
			
		

> alien did you purchase ?  this is heading to $1.00 plus short term... is my guess... strong support at each price spike ...
> cracked 70 cents today... still under the radar..




Yep, i bought at 51c soon after the ann. Am going to hold at these levels. I believe it can make the $1 mark. Market Cap looks cheap compared to what CS Energy are going to invest. 

I believe companies that hold assets around the Wallumbilla area in SE QLD will do well. This area is the hub from which gas is being distributed. Talks of pipelines being sent as far south as Newcastle. This has to raise the price of GAS available to what companies in QLD are currently getting and i think CS Energy has seen that. 

I am also holding MOS (which i have done for some time). They own some great assets in the form of separator plants and LPG plants there as well as some good exploration assets. 

Likely to be more consolidation in this area with STO, AGL, CS Energy and maybe more. Interesting times ahead IMHO. 

Alien


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## Phoenix

That's a good buy i bought at 72c then sold at 74c. I might actually buy again make a little more profit from this sucker .


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## chops_a_must

Has anyone else been looking at this one? What are people's opinions?

Almost looks like an AOE without the international projects. Even the charts look similar, with MEL following AOE by about 2 and a half months:







Buyers aren't letting this one get below 80c, and volume pushes it up quickly. 

And given that energy is going to be a huge talking point this year, with nuclear and green being the forefront, I expect gas stocks to do well this year as it is the undeniable middle ground. But that is just my opinion.

Anyway, gas stocks did very well weathering the last correction and I expect it will be much the same story over the next few weeks.

Not a holder but just looking for opinions, as it looks pretty good to me, being the biggest holder of gas reserves in NSW.


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## Jimminy

I think they need to shore up their reserves in northern nsw. Then the deal with CS Energy for the Ipswich powerstation (Swanbank) can go ahead.

Eastern Star Gas is another that you should have a look at if you are interested in Gas in NSW.....their deal announced yesterday bodes well for the future.

They are in a similar boat to MEL in that they have signed an agreement with a power station - Bayswater. But both MEL & ESG need to prove up their reserves. Once they both do they become takeover targets particularly with such deals (Bayswater & Swanbank in the pipeline). The ESG deal is the equivalent of $1.5 billion. There is an article today in SMH in the business section.

ESG at 30c seems reasonable value considering its future to supply NSW. Both companies though will improve their value as future positive announcement continue to be released.

I hold neither but have a professional interest in the CSM industry and hold Arrow. But I would be untruthful to say I haven't looked at MEL or quite a few others.


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## chops_a_must

Jimminy said:
			
		

> I think they need to shore up their reserves in northern nsw. Then the deal with CS Energy for the Ipswich powerstation (Swanbank) can go ahead.
> 
> Eastern Star Gas is another that you should have a look at if you are interested in Gas in NSW.....their deal announced yesterday bodes well for the future.
> 
> They are in a similar boat to MEL in that they have signed an agreement with a power station - Bayswater. But both MEL & ESG need to prove up their reserves. Once they both do they become takeover targets particularly with such deals (Bayswater & Swanbank in the pipeline). The ESG deal is the equivalent of $1.5 billion. There is an article today in SMH in the business section.
> 
> ESG at 30c seems reasonable value considering its future to supply NSW. Both companies though will improve their value as future positive announcement continue to be released.
> 
> I hold neither but have a professional interest in the CSM industry and hold Arrow. But I would be untruthful to say I haven't looked at MEL or quite a few others.



Cheers for the info. I appreciate it a lot.

I read something with ESG yesterday. Here it is actually:



> COAL seam methane junior company Eastern Star Gas and joint venture partner Gastar Exploration have signed a memorandum of understanding with New South Wales Government-owned power company Macquarie Generation to investigate the supply of gas.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> According to Eastern Star managing director Dennis Morton, a potential long-term gas supply and purchase agreement for Macquarie Generation's Bayswater Power Station expansion could reach as much as 500 petajoules in total and increase the state's gas consumption by 25%.
> 
> "This is a very exciting commercial development and represents a watershed for both our Gunnedah Basin gas project and for NSW," he said.
> 
> "It could provide us with a large gas market that will underpin development of gas pipeline infrastructure and as the foundation for the large-scale development and sale of natural gas within NSW.
> 
> "NSW will at last have a truly major, indigenous source of natural gas."
> 
> The Gunnedah project is in inland northern NSW and will have to be linked by a 300km pipeline running from Narrabri to the Bayswater Power Station, which lies about 100km northwest of Newcastle.
> 
> Macquarie Generation is Australia's largest electricity producer and owns and operates two coal-fired power stations in the Hunter Valley – Bayswater (with a capacity of 2640MW) and Liddell (2000MW).
> 
> The two stations can produce the equivalent of 40% of the state's electricity requirements.
> 
> Eastern Star and Gastar are in the process of commercialising the Gunnedah Basin CSM project, aiming to achieve initial certified gas reserves by the third quarter of this year.
> 
> The partners claim their PEL 238 lease contains about 17 trillion cubic feet of gas-in-place and the 256 square kilometre Bohena Project Area contains more than 3Tcf of gas-in-place.
> 
> Eastern Star holds 65% of the Gunnedah Project; Toronto Stock Exchange-listed Gastar holds the remaining 35%.




But given the bullish performance of small and mid cap gassers over this correction period, I'll definitely look at getting in. And I should have some extra money to play with given I'm going to get out of QGC (the recent deal seems to have put a ceiling on the price and stunted mid term growth).

But thanks very much for the info. Still looking at every gas stock I can find right now. CTP is another that comes to mind...

Hope it all goes well for you, and go Arrow!


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## Jimminy

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> it looks pretty good to me, being the biggest holder of gas reserves in NSW.




With 17 TCF that would make ESG the biggest gas holder (edit: for a single reserve at least) by quite a margin would it not.....can't remember what MEL has supposedly got under their ground but I believe they already have certified reserves unlike ESG.

Perhaps MEL probably the safer bet due to their certified reserves. 

I'll stick with my Arrow for now - not complaining there. Been waiting patiently for this rerating. Should have happened along time before this.


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## chops_a_must

Jimminy said:
			
		

> With 17 TCF that would make ESG the biggest gas holder (edit: for a single reserve at least) by quite a margin would it not.....can't remember what MEL has supposedly got under their ground but I believe they already have certified reserves unlike ESG.
> 
> Perhaps MEL probably the safer bet due to their certified reserves.
> 
> I'll stick with my Arrow for now - not complaining there. Been waiting patiently for this rerating. Should have happened along time before this.



Yah. It's about the certification I think. ESG looks to have had a weak up leg over the last few days, so I will be looking to get in on the down move.

But yes, ESG looks very good.


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## chops_a_must

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Almost looks like an AOE without the international projects. Even the charts look similar, with MEL following AOE by about 2 and a half months.
> 
> Anyway, gas stocks did very well weathering the last correction and I expect it will be much the same story over the next few weeks.



MEL now breaking out, almost right on cue. Gas stocks certainly look like the place to be...

Luckily did end up on this one.


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## Jimminy

Well done. They seem to like the drilling report - haven't read it yet.


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## chops_a_must

Jimminy said:
			
		

> Well done. They seem to like the drilling report - haven't read it yet.



Could be looking like an outstanding breakout before long. Is anyone else on this? Beginning to look silly on the market depth...

Market Depth
Number	Quantity	 	Price
1	3,400	 	0.870
3	15,240	 	0.865
2	37,500	 	0.860
2	13,000	 	0.850
2	20,000	 	0.845
1	9,000	 	0.840
2	35,919	 	0.830
2	30,575	 	0.820
2	14,000	 	0.800
2	10,086	 	0.795

Price	Quantity	 	Number
0.900	34,025	 	3
0.930	14,000	 	1
0.940	2,500	 	1
0.950	7,400	 	2
0.970	6,000	 	1
0.990	26,500	 	1
1.000	21,800	 	2


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## chops_a_must

Jimminy said:
			
		

> With 17 TCF that would make ESG the biggest gas holder (edit: for a single reserve at least) by quite a margin would it not.....can't remember what MEL has supposedly got under their ground but I believe they already have certified reserves unlike ESG.
> 
> Perhaps MEL probably the safer bet due to their certified reserves.
> 
> I'll stick with my Arrow for now - not complaining there. Been waiting patiently for this rerating. Should have happened along time before this.



The ESG market cap is actually bigger than MEL's at the moment, so that might explain it.

Anyway, x posted to the potential break out thread:

It broke it's all time intraday high today, closed above previous intraday highs, at an all time EOD HIGH near today's intraday high. So it has definitely broken out, and if it can get into the 90s or above $1 it may qualify as outstanding. But right now it looks very bullish to me:






With 1/10th the market cap of AOE it seems pretty good. 

This move up hasn't been on huge volume, and that's what is worrying me. BUT, if you look at the chart closely you will notice that basically ALL of the rising days have had larger volume. It is tightly held, has been trading in a very narrow band and any weakness has been pounced upon by buyers. I suspect that the continual lack of sellers on this one will only see larger volumes moved over the next few days. So this just could be a build up of momentum, as good news has flooded this one recently.


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## chops_a_must

MEL placed in a trading halt.

My guess is a takeover (it has been rumoured). And it seems to be having a positive impact on the sector. Has anyone heard anything?


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## chops_a_must

Well I was wrong. Capital raising (which had also been rumoured). 

The SP seems to be holding up rather well. Maybe it had already been factored into the SP? But now MEL is a cashed up company, with excellent prospects and large amount of certified reserves. And these are set to increase drastically over the next year or so. The report that they released post the original announcement is rather enlightening.


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## Jimminy

Jimminy said:


> I'll stick with my Arrow for now - not complaining there. Been waiting patiently for this rerating. Should have happened along time before this.




And it keeps getting better with Arrow!!....

Interesting that MEL have set a 660PJ target within 12 months for 2P reserves. If they do this will move this along. Should be one to watch closely.


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## chops_a_must

Jimminy said:


> And it keeps getting better with Arrow!!....
> 
> Interesting that MEL have set a 660PJ target within 12 months for 2P reserves. If they do this will move this along. Should be one to watch closely.



Yes, but I have made about half as much (in percentage terms) on MEL as I have on AOE in about a 16th of the time. You can't beat that! And it has an absolutely tiny market cap, so it is better to look at for trades IMO.

Plus, the depth is coninuing to look ridiculous on this thing:






EDIT: Sell side thinned even further, 1.04 long gone.


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## Jimminy

yeah well done Chops.... you and I chatted about this one a few weeks ago and your prediction was correct. You should have a tidy 30% + profit from 2 weeks ago. Nice pick buddy.

As I said the 600 pj 2p reserves within 12 month is a pretty significant statement to make. ESG only have a 18 month target on a similar 2p rserve target - hence the market liked MELs ann.


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## ormond

I think MEL represents an excellent buying oppurtunity at 0.94c as i believe this company is the cheapest mkt cap/2p res.
2p res 113pj with a target of 660 2p res. 3p res currently in excess of 1000pj.
Any thoughts as to why this co. appears to be so undervalued compared to its peers?


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## chops_a_must

ormond said:


> I think MEL represents an excellent buying oppurtunity at 0.94c as i believe this company is the cheapest mkt cap/2p res.
> 2p res 113pj with a target of 660 2p res. 3p res currently in excess of 1000pj.
> Any thoughts as to why this co. appears to be so undervalued compared to its peers?



I don't know.

It appears to have lagged its peers as long as I've followed it. But me, I really do like this stock, have traded it many times. It's very whippy and you can make big gains quickly. I guess the problem being it is rather capital intensive. Seemingly more than others. But yes, for 2p to mk cap, there aren't many better. Much better value than MPO for instance IMO.

Any more to the downside and this becomes a no-brainer for me, if it respects support, just like ESG. 

Just a warning though... it does look like heading to 80c again. I will look at it again then...


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## TheAbyss

Bollingers point to this moving shortly. Does anyone know when they are due to release some news? No guarantee MEL will go up however looks to have found a floor at the high 70's so looks to be a good entry point to me.


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## joelc

Has anyone noticed that in both September and December 2007 Quarterly Reports that MEL only detail their net 2P reserves and don't cleary state anything about confirmed 1P reserves.

Now to my understanding 1P=Proven. 2P=Proven + Probable. 3P=Proven + Probable + Possible..

Does this mean MEL is a company that only has a 'probable' amount of gas, which has yet to be proven? From what I can understand yes.

Check out MEL's Investor Presentation announcement on the 15/01/2008, page 18 clearly states that MEL has 0 (zero) certified 1P reserves. (I know the data in the graph says 'as at 14/01/07' but to me (confirmed via a quick look back at historical share prices) thats an error and should infact be 'as at *14/01/08*'.

Is this something to be concerned about? 

It's all good aiming for xxx amount of 2P reserves by xxxx timeframe but are we forgetting about 1P certification?


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## TheAbyss

I suspect MEL may be due for a rating upgrade after the upcoming Oil & Gas conference. Mel have done a lot of work on proving resources with not a lot of market recognition compared to some others in the CSG sector. 

Working on their proven (2p) 257 PJ to their market cap undervalues them when compared to others imo.

Some of the highlights for MEL who are hold the largest certified gas
reserves in NSW are below (straight form their preso). 

In addition MEL have MoU to sell gas to the Casino Power Station and to the Swanbank power station (total 390 PJ) already.

► Substantial reserve upgrade program underway
► Exploration is now beginning to reveal additional
conventional gas resources
► Access to energy resources is key; MEL is close
to markets and infrastructure
► A fundamental structural shift in the eastern
australian energy market is underway
► Well defined gas commercialisation strategy
► Experienced management and board


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## Bushman

Reserve upgrade: 
2P - 264 Petajoules *
3P - 1,419 PJ *

Note *: MEL interest. 

Aiming for 2P target of 640PJ. Continue to hold the mantle as the 'largest CSG holding in NSW... 

DYOR.


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## Wysiwyg

MEL is one of my juniors that has excellent growth opportunity on the east coast of Australia with coal seam gas wells.

From their latest presentation.

"The majority of east coast gas will be exported as LNG within 10 years."

"Metgasco has a large scale resource and has already established the largest certified 2P gas reserves in NSW."



> * Close to markets and infrastructure
> * Relationships with key customers - CS Energy - BP
> * Development projects well advanced - Richmond Valley Power Station - Lionsway Pipeline
> * Focus on domestic market in the short term.Ability to access export markets in the medium term.




2P (proven/probable) reserves now at 298 Petajoules which is equivalent to  312 billion cubic feet.Yes that is a solid reserve on paper.

One thing to note is the extraction process in some gas structures, 



> - This requires trial and error, but allows for a “manufacturing” style production process in drilling wells which can deliver continuous productivity improvements.




Share price is still going down so I`m looking forward at this, what I term, excellent opportunity.


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## big sal

potential is huge so plenty of upside for metgasco. from high of around $1.50 presently sitting around .40 so represents a great buy in opportunity, for that matter anywhere in the .40 to .60 range. have bought a few more at this price because it will hopefully only go up from here, although a bit quiet today with others doing better


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## Dukey

Anyone thinking about MEL recently??  I certainly am...

After the recent T/o action in PES and QGC - I've been checking out whats left of the smaller-mid CSG players. The one that stands out for me as being next in line and extremely undervalued is one I've watched for a while, but not bought before - MEL....here's why

2P reserves = 284PJ
3P res = 1460PJ
current MC = $48M
Shares - 132Mill; Options = 24Mill.
$ / 2P PJ = 48 000000 / 284 =~ $ 170 000.
So at Market cap of $48Mill, MEL is currently valued at *0.17Mill$/PJ.*

Compare that to some others mid tier CSG-ers ...

PES - current MC (during takeover) of $480Mill, on 2P reserves of about 400PJ. - this is around *$1.2Mill per 2P PJ. *

ESG - current MC of about $345Mill, on 2P gas of 336PJ.
= *$1.02MIll per 2P PJ*

QGC at the takeover - MC of about $5.5Bill on 2P of 2500PJ (I think)
= *over $2Mill per 2P PJ*  !! obviously so high due to QGC's more advanced stage of development, projects etc.

But the trend is obvious... MEL has a fair swag of gas, close to some big markets, with plenty of expansion potential (MEL state that current reserves are from only 5% of their land.)... and EXTREMELY undervalued by recent standards...  

The only down side is they aren't swimming in cash and therefore a cap raising may be in order sometime soonish - I think I recall reading about $5mill in cash ... but I could be wrong there.

Either way - I've convinced myself enough to buy in last week. down a bit since then - but these are long term holdings for me... at least until some fat cat swallows them up like QGC or PES.... ... 

- anyone else watching these guys???

-duke-E

----------
and yes - I know that analysis on 2P alone is overly simplistic... but anyway you look MEL is undervalued to hell as far as I can see...? somethings gotta give sometime??


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## pan

Dukey said:


> The only down side is they aren't swimming in cash and therefore a cap raising may be in order sometime soonish - I think I recall reading about $5mill in cash ... but I could be wrong there.





G'day Dukey nice bit of research,

I believe you are correct, the cash is around 5 mil and the company close to debt free.

Also looking to buy,

cheers


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## Dukey

thx pan.
It seems from comsec research that hartleys have a buy on them... but then they probably have a buy on everything.   still would be interesting to see what they think - does anyone have access to a hartleys report on MEL?

The recent investor report from the new MEL company website here (I think - let me know if it works or not) is a pretty good summary. 
http://www.metgasco.com.au/files/678561.pdf

following attachment is from there... looks even better than my effort!...you'll notice the lowest figure for 2P resources ... from mid 2007 (!) is more than double the current valuation of MEL's 2P gas reserves.

need I say more.... I will anyway ! - the highest 2P valuation is almost 30 times the current 2P valuation on MEL!.

# Some rough conversions necessary -   
    - Gas valuation - roughly - $1 per Gj = $1Mill per Pj.
    - generally – 1 Bcf = 1 Pj = 1 Mill Gj

 - please correct me if I've messed up here anywhere!

- good luck anyone onboard.


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## beerwm

AGL/Molopo Gloucester Basin Deal - $2.75/Gj 

to add another one.

regarding 2 previous takeovers,

SGL - had joint ventures with AGL in there tenements, lookinng at their reports possibly huge reserves [25,000PJ + in one tenement alone]

PES - Surrounding acreage near AOE, large amount of acreage in general, large potential.

so the recurring things in these takeovers seem to be, location, and potential.

although regarding pes, once the 2P reserves were announced there was massive price increases, so im not saying 2P reserves dont matter, but there is more to the equation in my opinion.

I'm not exactly sure of the surroundings of MEL, but i didnt think they had huge acreage compared to some other csg plays.

note- my information is just from memory so someone might wanna check it


based on 2P reserves though, massively undervalued even compared to ESG


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## pan

MEL is meant to start production in 2011..

When is ESG meant to start?

Dukey do you have a target price?


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## Dukey

Price targets are not allowed here as far as I know  - and in this kind of market you won't get a target from me! ...apart from the obvious - that someone has to start looking at these guys soon and wonder_* "why is MEL gas worth only a fraction of someone elses gas???????????" *_(size of fraction depending on who you compare them to).

- but here is a comparison closer to home (NSW) ...from the ESG thread...



> Based on the AGL acquisition of PEL285 in the Gloucester Basin, NSW, from AJL Lucas and Molopo MPO, the price was *$2.05/GJ of 2P.* This would value ESG's current booked 2P reserves at $448m or $0.58/share and 12 month targeted reserves 1,300PJ (845PJ net) at $1,730m or $2.28/share. The $2.28/share will be the upside for ESG if the target is achieved in 2009.



  [from phong_? on the ESG thread]

Only my opinion - but unless someone knows something about MEL that is holding them back big time - then I'd expect some kind of rebalance sometime.... how soon - is anyones guess, though PES, QGC, and Origin proved to me that big deals can still happen in crappy markets.

I know 'Chops' has been watching ESG and MEL for a long time... any comments on possible reasons for their current valuations chops??

-duke-E!


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## pan

putting that into ev terms

284 * 2.05 = 582000000

shares= 148000000

582000000/148000000= 3.93

wrong?


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## Dukey

pan said:


> putting that into ev terms
> 
> 284 * 2.05 = 582000000
> 
> shares= 148000000
> 
> 582000000/148000000= 3.93
> 
> wrong?




The numbers are the numbers are the numbers and Those numbers look fine to me pan...(think i had 156mill shares fully diluted - but whats a few mill betw friends?!) . nothing wrong with your maths that I can see though einstein I'm not ... 

(speaking of which... read 'einstein - a life'   - a great biography.)

PS - I should maybe be mentioning that i do hold MEL.


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## surfingman

I haven't looked at MEL is a while now but was thinking about if and when the pipeline gets approved will they be able to get funding in this climate to build? If yes, will that mean a dilution of interest in the projects.

Just a thought on why the share price is lower, apart from the general market.

My reasoning for it being cheaper is the infrastructure isn't in place at the moment, unlike alot of the QLD CSG plays which are relatively close to local and international sized projects.

Don't get me wrong i really like MEL, it has great potential, just putting it out there.


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## Dukey

Yep - thats a good point surfingman - I need to look more closely at the development side of MEL. Generally I'd estimate they are maybe a year or two behind the likes of ESG as far as devel and infrastructure deals.  
I kind of figure that the resource is there - close to the east coast - so it will get used one way or the other.   I presume (hope) that the Qld pipeline will be built as long as it is viable - and I should think it would be as industrial consumers could only benefit from ensuring some competition in the Qld gas market, plus the added security of supply.  They have a 15PJ per year MOU with BP to start with there.  Once the pipeline is built it would be a huge asset for MEL and any partners.
Even without the pipeline - they will still have a major gas asset, which could be marketed a number of ways... power plants, LNG, even fertiliser I think!... and who knows what will happen in NSW gas market in the next year or two - it seems early days there w.r.t. CSG and maybe some more consolidation is on the cards between ESG, AGL, MEL... who else... STO and of course the international interest in Qld could eventually extend further south to NSW....
-e


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## sinner

This is a fun game.

Started with KAR, it bounced up. 

Took profits, re-allocated into KAR and profits into ESG, it bounced up.

Took profits, re-allocated into ESG and profits into MEL today 0.45.

All I wanted was KAR as a long termer and got these two for free 

To the bottom drawer I say!


----------



## JTLP

Sinner...can I ask why you picked up MEL now?

Is it due to there massive reserves and the fact that you think they will be a T/O target with the recent activity in the sector?

I've missed MEL twice now (predicted both bounces off the low grrr!) and wouldn't mind seeing it drift back down so JTLP can get some 

Can't see it happening with recent activity though...


----------



## Dukey

A couple of links of significance to MEL , ESG, and other NSW coal seamers - also could be great for AJL if they can be involved in the pipeline contract.

1. Hunter to Qld pipeline is GO!!!!!!! this should help kick NSW along in the csg game.

http://www.theherald.com.au/news/local/news/general/600-jobs-in-850m-hunter-gas-project/1439881.aspx

2. Focus on NSW csg.
http://www.businessday.com.au/business/focus-turns-to-nsw-coal-seam-gas-20090102-7943.html


----------



## sinner

JTLP said:


> Sinner...can I ask why you picked up MEL now?
> 
> Is it due to there massive reserves and the fact that you think they will be a T/O target with the recent activity in the sector?
> 
> I've missed MEL twice now (predicted both bounces off the low grrr!) and wouldn't mind seeing it drift back down so JTLP can get some
> 
> Can't see it happening with recent activity though...




Hi JTLP, 

I am not your usual player.

Have been sitting on the sidelines for a couple of years now waiting for the crunch. This has given me plenty of time to formulate an entry strategy.

Stage 1 was of course gold and gold stocks as soon as they presented value on a fundamental basis.

Next was energy sector, and I simply had a long hitlist of companies I wanted to expose my money to (again, on a fundamental basis). At this point in my plan I was to be exposed only in a minor way to gas and much heavier on oil.

However, fundamentals shifted heavily so I knocked a *lot* of oil speculation (happier to divide the oil capital amongst stronger plays) out of the hit list and now just working my way through what is left (LNG, CSG, etc).

Since these are long term plays I am looking to accumulate rapidly in what I see as temporarily impaired markets. Not too concerned with day to day fluctuations in the price, only what I see as value. If one play decides to yield me capital gains during this accumulation I will just return it into the market (in this case MEL, next on the list) before the bottom drawer.

I have been saying for ages that we are idiots as a country for importing expensive oil and selling our valuable gas to China on the cheap (REDICULOUSLY CHEAP), especially when there could be a significant market overlap on domestic and industrial uses with a bit of government support. 

So when I see the market ravaged, yet finally good investment into *domestic* gas infrastructure, I will take advantage. Plus, I am cheating a little, and hoping Russia will start some **** which will cause gas prices to rocket.

My expertise in the energy field is *nil*. I always ask my room-mates brother, who recently graduated a petroleum/energy engineering type degree at UNSW for advice on the simplest terminology when going over anns trying to decide on picks, so you should not take my picks as anything "savvy"!

I have noticed yesterday in the ESG thread and today in MEL that people have been mentioning the QLD->Hunter pipeline. Can people explain to me why this is bullish? If gas is flowing rapidly from QLD down to Hunter region in 3-4 years then isn't there going to be less demand for NSW gas? Admittedly we are supposed to be pretty starved of it in this state, so maybe there is plenty of demand for both.

Would appreciate some input.


----------



## beerwm

sinner said:


> Hi JTLP,
> 
> I am not your usual player.
> 
> Have been sitting on the sidelines for a couple of years now waiting for the crunch. This has given me plenty of time to formulate an entry strategy.
> 
> Stage 1 was of course gold and gold stocks as soon as they presented value on a fundamental basis.
> 
> Next was energy sector, and I simply had a long hitlist of companies I wanted to expose my money to (again, on a fundamental basis). At this point in my plan I was to be exposed only in a minor way to gas and much heavier on oil.
> 
> However, fundamentals shifted heavily so I knocked a *lot* of oil speculation (happier to divide the oil capital amongst stronger plays) out of the hit list and now just working my way through what is left (LNG, CSG, etc).
> 
> Since these are long term plays I am looking to accumulate rapidly in what I see as temporarily impaired markets. Not too concerned with day to day fluctuations in the price, only what I see as value. If one play decides to yield me capital gains during this accumulation I will just return it into the market (in this case MEL, next on the list) before the bottom drawer.
> 
> I have been saying for ages that we are idiots as a country for importing expensive oil and selling our valuable gas to China on the cheap (REDICULOUSLY CHEAP), especially when there could be a significant market overlap on domestic and industrial uses with a bit of government support.
> 
> So when I see the market ravaged, yet finally good investment into *domestic* gas infrastructure, I will take advantage. Plus, I am cheating a little, and hoping Russia will start some **** which will cause gas prices to rocket.
> 
> My expertise in the energy field is *nil*. I always ask my room-mates brother, who recently graduated a petroleum/energy engineering type degree at UNSW for advice on the simplest terminology when going over anns trying to decide on picks, so you should not take my picks as anything "savvy"!
> 
> I have noticed yesterday in the ESG thread and today in MEL that people have been mentioning the QLD->Hunter pipeline. Can people explain to me why this is bullish? If gas is flowing rapidly from QLD down to Hunter region in 3-4 years then isn't there going to be less demand for NSW gas? Admittedly we are supposed to be pretty starved of it in this state, so maybe there is plenty of demand for both.
> 
> Would appreciate some input.





Might be wrong,

but i took it as the NSW csg acreage owned by agl,sto,esg,mel etc now have a export market available - due to the planned LNG plant at gladstone. but I may be wrong


----------



## Dukey

Have been looking a bit closer today at these pipelines to sort out my own lack of knowledge/confusion regarding diff proposals - it seems there are 2 main proposals:

1. The big one in the announcement below is the $850M 'Qld - hunter pipeline' - which is supposed to carry gas from Western Qld to Hunter region (Newcastle) in NSW for a gas fired power plant. This would be a 800 odd-klm pipeline!! 

As such - I'm not sure how this one will impact MEL - maybe not much at all, it's too far west. But it will attracting attention to CSG in NSW 

2. The other MEL proposal is called the ' lions way pipeline' - to transport gas from Casino about 150klm to SE Qld (Ipswich - Brisbane - gold coast). Much shorter than the western one. Costs could be around $200Mill (just going relative to the other pipe).

At first glance the MEL pipe makes more sense to me - it seems strange to bring gas from QLD to NSW (western pipeline), when there are already plenty of largely undeveloped reserves in sub-coastal and central NSW - ESG, AGK and MEL having most of them as far as I know. I mean the gloucester basin which AGK just bought is right there!!!.... next to where they want to build a power plant.
... I don't get it??

On the other hand - if MEL can build a short pipeline to feed into SEQ - the fastest growing residential area in Oz - with the potential of also supplying the LNG plants, or swapping gas with those companies - then they will be laughing IMO.

It's all very interesting.... the main message is that CSG is not going away and still the place to be in these dodgy markets.
Think I'm gonna use my PES $$ to buy more of all the NSW coal seamers... sooner or later they will charge just like the QLDers.... probably sooner.

-E
====================

[Pipelne map of Oz - (it's old and these two proposals are not on it)
http://www.ena.asn.au/webc/factsandfigures/?0,0,a001,236 ]


----------



## seasprite

ESG/OIP stand to gain from the proposed hunter pipeline route , runs pretty much smack bang in the middle of their permits http://www.qhgp.com.au/data/qhgp-map.pdf

I am bias on OIP being a holder and it is my competition pick for FEB.


----------



## Dukey

Small reserves increase for MEL today, including 1st 1P reserves. 

1P           = 2.7 Pj
2P         = 298 Pj
3P          =1,538 Pj

Nothing spectacular - but its just the starting point for MEL. 2P and 3P numbers give a better indication of their value IMO.


----------



## JTLP

This stock makes me cry...sitting on zi watchlist for too long...ahh well you win some you dim some!

Would any kind chartists on the ASF board be willing to explain any recent trends within MEL? If it retraces I may this time pick it up (which will probably lead to it sinking like a lead balloon)...

Also some big buying at end of day today...closed on daily high


----------



## big sal

It's all happening.

MEL up 20% today, buyers stacking up and not too many sellers left at present. Where to for this one, until today it had been ranging between 35c-50c for a while now, but nudging 60c now. Still a way to go to hit its 12 month high of $1.50.

ESG travelling nicely at about 70c and not too far from its 12 month high of 93c and OIP up from 6.5c to 14c in about 7 days!


----------



## kingcarmleo

Cap raising time, ESG just completed there cap raising -50 million at 0.55c. Hopefully shareholders get a chance to participate in this.


----------



## sinner

JTLP said:


> This stock makes me cry...sitting on zi watchlist for too long...ahh well you win some you dim some!
> 
> Would any kind chartists on the ASF board be willing to explain any recent trends within MEL? If it retraces I may this time pick it up (which will probably lead to it sinking like a lead balloon)...
> 
> Also some big buying at end of day today...closed on daily high




Hi JTLP,

We are quickly approaching 0.4 again and I see over 560,000 units being bidded at this price. i.e. strong resistance is visible in the order book without even looking at the chart.

Whether this is a buy or not by your strategy is not up to me!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

The CBM/CSM sector continues to fire, I read articles about BG going after VPE (which would explain the price rise) and Santos going after ESG, not sure why BOW is running so hard

Anyway MEL seems to be one of the cheapest on an EV per Reservers status (will put up a pic of the table that compares all the Aussie CSM/CBM players when I get a chance)

Just announced a placement at 40c + a rights issue at 40c so I would think perhaps 40c becomes a base

Anyway looked good for a punt 

DYOR


----------



## sinner

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> The CBM/CSM sector continues to fire, I read articles about BG going after VPE (which would explain the price rise) and Santos going after ESG, not sure why BOW is running so hard
> 
> Anyway MEL seems to be one of the cheapest on an EV per Reservers status (will put up a pic of the table that compares all the Aussie CSM/CBM players when I get a chance)
> 
> Just announced a placement at 40c + a rights issue at 40c so I would think perhaps 40c becomes a base
> 
> Anyway looked good for a punt
> 
> DYOR




I would like to see that chart! 

It went to 0.39 last dip before bouncing, but it may have just a bunch of big orders being filled in the vicinity.

Notice the doji provided at the beginning of the last bounce, we had a similar one yesterday. Will be interesting to see if today closes similarly to the candle which proceeded the last doji (i.e. up).

At the very least that gap looks fillable if we don't break down from here


----------



## JTLP

sinner said:


> Hi JTLP,
> 
> We are quickly approaching 0.4 again and I see over 560,000 units being bidded at this price. i.e. strong resistance is visible in the order book without even looking at the chart.
> 
> Whether this is a buy or not by your strategy is not up to me!




Thanks Sinner and YT.

I also agree that 40c will be the new floor with the issue of shares etc. Bounced off it today but we shall see. If it breaks below 40 its only real stop will be at 35...below that and its back to 28 where I will be looking to buy for real this time!

My strategy would have worked to a T before sinner...but since it has now gotten away I didn't look at MEL again. Might have to revisit thanks to your words . I will wait to see what plays out (as per my supports above)...but if 40 is established I can see it as a decent risk/reward play (now that they have more working capital).


----------



## STRAT

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> The CBM/CSM sector continues to fire, I read articles about BG going after VPE (which would explain the price rise) and Santos going after ESG, not sure why BOW is running so hard
> 
> Anyway MEL seems to be one of the cheapest on an EV per Reservers status (will put up a pic of the table that compares all the Aussie CSM/CBM players when I get a chance)
> 
> Just announced a placement at 40c + a rights issue at 40c so I would think perhaps 40c becomes a base
> 
> Anyway looked good for a punt
> 
> DYOR



Hi Young Trader. Any chance you still have that article or a link regarding BG going after VPE?. I would very much like to read that being a VPE holder.

Thanks in advance and sorry for being somewhat off topic everyone


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Hey guys,

Yeah will try and find those articles and do the copy and paste,

Sorry I have just been so so slack lately, anyhoo 40c looks to be holding for now, thanks for the chart Sinner

Here is one article I did save, *its pure SPECULATION THOUGH!!!*



Wheels & Deals
1:14 PM, 16 Mar 2009   Madeleine Heffernan
Broken Arrow

Arrow Energy has thrown in the towel in its battle for coal seam gas explorer Pure Energy, giving British giant BG Group a nice chunk of Queensland's coal seam gas assets for a hefty $1 billion price tag. 

Arrow told the market on Monday that it would not proceed with compulsory acquisition of the remaining Pure shares. 

Arrow's offer – $3 cash and 1.57 shares for every Pure Energy share – closed on March 13 at 7pm, with the Queensland energy group ending up with a 20.31 per cent stake in Pure, though it already owned 19.9 per cent through a pre-initial public offering investment. 

Pure Energy had initially supported the Arrow takeover, but when BG came onto the scene – just months after being spurned by Origin Energy – a real takeover battle began, culminating in BG boosting its offer to $8 a share, or $8.25 per share, should it receive 90 per cent shareholder acceptance for its offer. 

The decision by Pure directors and key shareholders Karl Meade and Tom Fontaine to sell into the BG offer didn't help Arrow's case, and when Arrow's major backer Royal Dutch Shell – an 11.2 per cent shareholder in Pure – announced it would accept BG's offer for its shares, Arrow's bid was severely dented, with Arrow either unwilling or unable to boost the cash component of its bid, and aware that a boosted scrip component would push down its own share price. 

BG Group, the UK's third-largest natural gas company, has more than one-third of Pure, and it's now expected that Arrow will sell into the BG offer. BG's offer closes on March 23. 

Pure is being advised by Russell Keating and Nick Bagot from Goldman Sachs JBWere and Neil Pathak from Freehills. BG is being advised by Gresham's David Feetham and Michael Ashforth with legal support provided by Braddon Jolley, Jaclyn Riley-Smith and Sandy Mak from Corrs Chambers Westgarth. 

Arrow is being advised by Wilson HTM's Simon Keyser and John Humphrey from Mallesons Stephen Jaques. 

It's worth noting that Arrow bought its Pure stake for less than 50 cents a share on average, so while it didn't walk away with the prize, it certainly will get a wad of cash. 

*So what's next for Arrow, having allowed its takeover offer to lapse? There's talk it will look to take over juniors such as Red Fork Energy, Westside, European Gas, Metgasco, Victoria Petroleum, Box Energy, Molopo, or Sydney Gas. There's also talk it may too become a target as international giants seek to boost their exposure to Australia's coal seam gas assets. *

In any event, Arrow's keeping busy, with its international unit agreeing to buy 75.25 per cent of Far East Energy Corp's (FEEC) stake in the Qinnan coal seam methane venture in China. 

Arrow also agreed to make a convertible note investment in FEEC, which if converted will make Arrow the largest shareholder with an 11.5 per cent stake, and includes warrants to increase its shareholding over time to 15 per cent. 

Houston-based FEEC is one of the biggest coal-bed methane producers in China, and operator and foreign contractor to China United Coalbed Methane, whose interest in the Qinnan block will shortly be transferred to Petrochina. The Qinnan block is in the Qinshui basin of Shanxi Province. 

Arrow said Qinnan block represented "one of the best prospects for near-term commercial coal bed methane production in China," and it is confident in targeting reserve certification within two years, with commercial development beginning shortly after that. 

"We expect Qinnan to become a material project within the Arrow portfolio, capable of producing 15-20 petajoules per annum for at least 15 years," Arrow told the market. 

Royal Dutch Shell, a 10 per cent shareholder in Arrow International, will have the right to farm-in for up to 50 per cent of Arrow's interest in the project within five years.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

*Another speculative article talking about ESG and MEL*




Wheels & Deals
4:53 PM, 12 Mar 2009   Michael Feller
A star spangled deal


Eastern Star Gas has raised $50 million through a placement to institutional investors, partially underwritten by Patersons Securities in Perth. 

The company said it could not confirm the names of the investors at this stage, but that they included some “big American names”. Eastern Star began to trade on a US over-the-counter pink sheets exchange earlier this year (see Gas explorer thinks pink, January 13). San Francisco-based investment bank Merriman Curhan Ford arranged the listing on the PrimeQX exchange, which also trades American depository receipts in Linc Energy and White Energy. 

"We are delighted with the support received from new and existing investors, particularly given the current economic environment," said Eastern Star managing director David Casey. "It is a show of confidence in ESG and the potential of the Narrabri coal seam gas project." 

Eastern Star holds a 65 per cent interest in Narrabri, near Tamworth in New South Wales, with Gastar Exploration holding the balance. Production testing is underway at two locations on the 9,100 square kilometre site and approximately 70 per cent of funds raised will be used for drilling of production pilots and core holes. Eastern Star says it expects to see certified reserves increase well beyond present targets. 

The placement, at 55 cents a share, will settle on March 17. 

The coal seam gas potential of Queensland has been a bullish investment theme of late, illustrated by the takeover battle for Pure Energy Resources (see It ain’t over yet, March 4) and last year’s acquisition of Queensland Gas Company by BG Group. Yet New South Wales is hot too, according to a recent broker report written by Patersons analyst Scott Simpson. 

Simpson also noted that based on BG’s offer for Pure – and Pure’s estimated 3C contingent resources of 5797 petajoules compared with Eastern Star’s 6128PJ – a valuation of 93 cents per share for Eastern Star is implied. Based on current proven and probable (2P) reserves, Pure’s latest offer values Eastern Star at 75 cents per share, but on target 2P reserves of 845PJ, that means $2.90 a share for Eastern Star. 

*Eastern Star was rumoured to be in the sights of Arrow Energy, after it was outbid by BG Group for Pure Energy. While the capital raising puts such speculation to bed, the rumour mill has now set its sights on Metgasco, currently in a trading halt pending the announcement of a share placement. Metgasco holds the biggest coal seam gas reserves in New South Wales. *


----------



## STRAT

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> *Another speculative article talking about ESG and MEL*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wheels & Deals
> 4:53 PM, 12 Mar 2009   Michael Feller
> A star spangled deal
> 
> 
> Eastern Star Gas has raised $50 million through a placement to institutional investors, partially underwritten by Patersons Securities in Perth.
> 
> The company said it could not confirm the names of the investors at this stage, but that they included some “big American names”. Eastern Star began to trade on a US over-the-counter pink sheets exchange earlier this year (see Gas explorer thinks pink, January 13). San Francisco-based investment bank Merriman Curhan Ford arranged the listing on the PrimeQX exchange, which also trades American depository receipts in Linc Energy and White Energy.
> 
> "We are delighted with the support received from new and existing investors, particularly given the current economic environment," said Eastern Star managing director David Casey. "It is a show of confidence in ESG and the potential of the Narrabri coal seam gas project."
> 
> Eastern Star holds a 65 per cent interest in Narrabri, near Tamworth in New South Wales, with Gastar Exploration holding the balance. Production testing is underway at two locations on the 9,100 square kilometre site and approximately 70 per cent of funds raised will be used for drilling of production pilots and core holes. Eastern Star says it expects to see certified reserves increase well beyond present targets.
> 
> The placement, at 55 cents a share, will settle on March 17.
> 
> The coal seam gas potential of Queensland has been a bullish investment theme of late, illustrated by the takeover battle for Pure Energy Resources (see It ain’t over yet, March 4) and last year’s acquisition of Queensland Gas Company by BG Group. Yet New South Wales is hot too, according to a recent broker report written by Patersons analyst Scott Simpson.
> 
> Simpson also noted that based on BG’s offer for Pure – and Pure’s estimated 3C contingent resources of 5797 petajoules compared with Eastern Star’s 6128PJ – a valuation of 93 cents per share for Eastern Star is implied. Based on current proven and probable (2P) reserves, Pure’s latest offer values Eastern Star at 75 cents per share, but on target 2P reserves of 845PJ, that means $2.90 a share for Eastern Star.
> 
> *Eastern Star was rumoured to be in the sights of Arrow Energy, after it was outbid by BG Group for Pure Energy. While the capital raising puts such speculation to bed, the rumour mill has now set its sights on Metgasco, currently in a trading halt pending the announcement of a share placement. Metgasco holds the biggest coal seam gas reserves in New South Wales. *



Thanks for those Young Trader I appreciate it. 

With your permission Id like to share them with fellow holders on Share Trader. I will wait for an OK from you though. Ive noticed one can get a real bad name for ones self doing copy and paste of your posts and material. 

Both BOW and VPE have a strong following there.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Hey Strat, go for it mate,

Those articles are public (not mine) they are available to all via simple web search


Was just looking at MPO and how it sold its NSW Gloucester PEL 285 for $370m to AGL (MPO only had 30% interest)

PEL 285 had 2P of 180 PJ and 3P of 360 PJ 

MEL has 2P of 247 PJ and 3P of 1400 PJ

Based on recent take overs and even MPO's sale I would think MEL stands a fair chance of having an offer made given its current mkt cap is $75m with $15m cash leaving an EV of $60m for those large 2P and 3P reserves


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

I am currently holding both AOE (as my portfolios long term exposure to gas) and MEL with an eye to it being a takeover target.

In the hypothetical situation that MEL gets taken over by AOE, won't the value of the AOE shares drop by a proportional amount, thereby wiping out any gains on MEL?

I would prefer to see AJL or STO take over both MEL and ESG then I would just stick 10% of the overall return into whichever company did the taking over.


----------



## jancha

Sinner,
        I'm in much the same position as you are in holding AOE MEL & a few other CSG companies. If you look at PES anything can happen. Like all these threads on CSG everyone's just guessing the out come. If AOE were to take over MEL at a premium price it probably would drop but say they picked it up at a reasonable price like AOEs 1st offer for PES then i think it would have only strengthen the company & it's SP. Long term if this is the way energy is going CGS will only continue to go up.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

I have taken some profits today as the record date for the SPP is Monday and I would have thought some selling may occur monday allowing me to buy back lower though I could be wrong

ESG BOW and VPE all continue to capture the mkts attn which bodes well for the sector


Chartists any views?


----------



## Dangerous

jancha said:


> Sinner,
> I'm in much the same position as you are in holding AOE MEL & a few other CSG companies. If you look at PES anything can happen. Like all these threads on CSG everyone's just guessing the out come. If AOE were to take over MEL at a premium price it probably would drop but say they picked it up at a reasonable price like AOEs 1st offer for PES then i think it would have only strengthen the company & it's SP. Long term if this is the way energy is going CGS will only continue to go up.




has anyone considered ramp up gas going to NSW and ESG prospects being a considerable threat to sending ramp up down south?

If ESG were to produce domestic gas, the LNG players access to NSW would be blocked.

Whilst there are no planned pipes/tie ins from QLD fields into the NSW, it would be a good way to deal with ramp up gas.


----------



## jetblack

I hold MEL and think that the interest of the gas in QLD seems centred on export to Asian mkts. I wonder why MEL did not raise more funds as they say that they were over subscribed and the sector is "hot".

IMO they are in a better position to caputure the eastern sea board mkts and I believe thay this cap raising is to entice a T/O or one big farmin partner.

The shares will start smokin. DYOR


----------



## Dukey

Dangerous said:


> has anyone considered ramp up gas going to NSW and ESG prospects being a considerable threat to sending ramp up down south?
> 
> If ESG were to produce domestic gas, the LNG players access to NSW would be blocked.
> 
> Whilst there are no planned pipes/tie ins from QLD fields into the NSW, it would be a good way to deal with ramp up gas.




there are two planned pipelines of interest - one from western qld TO newcastle area (not MEL); the other from MEL's tenements near casino to SEQ - about 150klm.

see post 46 and others about that time in this thread.

I think it makes sense for MEL to tie into SEQld - those LNG plants will need as much gas as they can get, and SEQ is still the fastest growing part of OZ - I think...?  isn't it?

On the whole the CSG sector has been fantastic through the slump and picking the t/o targets has become the biggest game in town.  MEL is so undervalued in comparison to most that every bigger fish must be considering a tilt.....  all IMO of course.

- holding...  MEL, AOE, ESG, BUL, and wanting mpo, bow !!!!!!!


----------



## Dangerous

dukey, ramp up is explained in my comments on the KAR thread.

MEL are massively undervalued considering their mkt cap one-tenth of ESG yet they have the same reserves.

I guess it all comes down to pipelines though.

The pipe to Newcastle you mention.  Is that the Hunter valley one that BG axed after TO of QGC?


----------



## Dukey

Dangerous said:


> dukey, ramp up is explained in my comments on the KAR thread.
> 
> MEL are massively undervalued considering their mkt cap one-tenth of ESG yet they have the same reserves.
> 
> I guess it all comes down to pipelines though.
> 
> The pipe to Newcastle you mention.  Is that the Hunter valley one that BG axed after TO of QGC?




I thought it was still on - but if you know different then so be it.

MEL's pipeline makes more sense to me.



> (Me! - post no. 46 this thread) Have been looking a bit closer today at these pipelines to sort out my own lack of knowledge/confusion regarding diff proposals - it seems there are 2 main proposals:
> 
> 1. The big one in the announcement below is the $850M 'Qld - hunter pipeline' - which is supposed to carry gas from Western Qld to Hunter region (Newcastle) in NSW for a gas fired power plant. This would be a 800 odd-klm pipeline!!
> 
> As such - I'm not sure how this one will impact MEL - maybe not much at all, it's too far west. But it will attract attention to CSG in NSW
> 
> 2. The other MEL proposal is called the ' lions way pipeline' - to transport gas from Casino about 150klm to SE Qld (Ipswich - Brisbane - gold coast). Much shorter than the western one. Costs could be around $200Mill (just going relative to the other pipe).
> 
> At first glance the MEL pipe makes more sense to me - it seems strange to bring gas from QLD to NSW (western pipeline), when there are already plenty of largely undeveloped reserves in sub-coastal and central NSW - ESG, AGK and MEL having most of them as far as I know. I mean the gloucester basin which AGK just bought is right there!!!.... next to where they want to build a power plant.
> ... I don't get it??
> 
> On the other hand - if MEL can build a short pipeline to feed into SEQ - the fastest growing residential area in Oz - with the potential of also supplying the LNG plants, or swapping gas with those companies - then they will be laughing IMO.
> 
> It's all very interesting.... the main message is that CSG is not going away and still the place to be in these dodgy markets.
> Think I'm gonna use my PES $$ to buy more of all the NSW coal seamers... sooner or later they will charge just like the QLDers.... probably sooner.



-E


... just picked up a few MPO - will have a tightish (for me) stop on it though.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> The CBM/CSM sector continues to fire, I read articles about BG going after VPE (which would explain the price rise) and Santos going after ESG, not sure why BOW is running so hard
> 
> Anyway MEL seems to be one of the cheapest on an EV per Reservers status (will put up a pic of the table that compares all the Aussie CSM/CBM players when I get a chance)
> 
> Just announced a placement at 40c + a rights issue at 40c so I would think perhaps 40c becomes a base
> 
> Anyway looked good for a punt
> 
> DYOR






YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Strat, go for it mate,
> 
> Those articles are public (not mine) they are available to all via simple web search
> 
> 
> Was just looking at MPO and how it sold its NSW Gloucester PEL 285 for $370m to AGL (MPO only had 30% interest)
> 
> PEL 285 had 2P of 180 PJ and 3P of 360 PJ
> 
> MEL has 2P of 247 PJ and 3P of 1400 PJ
> 
> Based on recent take overs and even MPO's sale I would think MEL stands a fair chance of having an offer made given its current mkt cap is $75m with $15m cash leaving an EV of $60m for those large 2P and 3P reserves




Still so so cheap on a comparative EV basis to say ESG or the sale MPO achieved for its NSW Gloucester PEL 285,

This reminds me of MTN, during the U Bull MTN was the only U stock with a large deposit to remain ridiculously undervalued compared to its peers. While all its peers commanded very high EV's per lb of uranium resource MTN traded at a ridiculous discount, anyway a takeover offer eventually came and MTN rallied from 50c to $^ gains of over 1200%, while I'm not saying this will happen here what I am 100% confident of is that sooner or later the situation will resolve itself where MEL will trade on EV per 2P or 3P that is closer to its peers


----------



## pointr

I don't know if this has a downward bearing on MEL's SP but as most of their acreage seems to be near coastal or in higher population areas pipeline access is going to be more difficult than in outback Queensland. Rivers,hills, mountains equals expense, plus higher population density means more potential locals that dont want a CSG project in their backyard. Consider the problems SGL had trying to develop a project in a valley on the NSW central coast. Merely my 
I dont hold MEL, but have some MPO, who are involved in some of the same PEL's


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

You have to remember though SGL got bought out, there's just too much corporate activity in the sector for MEL a stock with one of largest certified reserves (larger than ESG's yet a fraction of the mkt cap) to go unoticed


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

BRR presentation out today from recent Oil and Gas conference

http://www.brr.com.au/event/56988


Holding around the mid 40's with prudent buyers soaking up profit takers from recent placement/SPP at 40c

Somethings gotta give sooner or later


----------



## nomore4s

MEL is an interesting one atm.

I was going to give it till the end of the week to start moving or I would be exiting, want to see some follow through tomorrow now. I have moved my stop up to 42.5c anyway.

MEL looks to be forming a massive triangle and the target for a break through 60c is around 95c. I will look to buy another parcel on a confirmed break of 60c.


----------



## TheAbyss

Up 8% today on pretty decent volume. 

Looks like it may follow through on the targets posted recently.

Happy days people


----------



## big sal

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Somethings gotta give sooner or later




Buyers stacking up and sellers thinning out so it could happen soon!

Given its huge potential MEL has been frustrating to watch recently (has traded between 30 and 60c since October 2008 and more recently in the 40 to 50c range) when others (ESG, BOW, BUL) have been heading north.

MEL still a way of its 12 month high of $1.50 so plenty to look forward to.


----------



## nomore4s

Well we got that follow through today. Massive volume and a very good close.

Now to see how price and volume reacts if it tests resistance at 60c, I actually would like to see some consolidation just below 60c or even better just above 60c but I've got the feeling if 60c is over come prices could shoot towards 70-75c without a rest.
If 60c is rejected on a weak close and high volume, I will probably look to exit.


----------



## big sal

nomore4s said:


> Well we got that follow through today. Massive volume and a very good close.




Very nice, up over 15%!

Looking good with buyers (2.5M units) piling up on the sellers (300K units) so could keep pushing higher


----------



## Dangerous

Anyone on the rights issue?... i applied for 20 times my entitlement (i had 10000 miss the entitlement that i thought were going to make it)

Hope like hell it is undersubscribed but i very much doubt it - only 7 or 8 or so mill and directors are claiming $1m of it


----------



## JTLP

Chartists...please help me out here...looking to get my feet wet with MEL

I have noticed some steep declines for MEL over the last 2 days...with today MEL finishing on its daily low. It has been in an uptrend since Mid Dec '08...and with my extremely basic EW skillzzz...looks to be a wave 4?

I can also see some long term support just above the 40 cent area...which would also coincide with the placement. Where are we all predicting a bounce off for MEL (if it holds)?

I was thinking of putting in an order @ 41.5/42 with a stop @ 39 (just under rights issue support).

I am not asking for investment advice but what do chartists think of this for a set up? 

Thanks for your help


----------



## Nero64

Hi JTLP, 

Just wondering where you started your EW forcasting. If it was mid Dec then the waves don't progress high enough above wave 1. If early March then the the 4th wave goes below wave 1 which is breaking one of the EW rules. 

I see support around the .40c mark. If it get's down there then I would wait for the retrace to confirm a reversal using volume and price movement. 

It has good 2P CSM reserves but it playing 2nd fiddle to its larger NSW rival ESG.


----------



## Sean K

This was identified as a potential breakout in the potential breakout thread, but it's probably not doing that till the upper resistance line is met around 60c.

It's been mentioned here that it's undervalued and I'm trying to get my head around the numbers. Not generally interested in oil and gas as it seems so hit and miss...

But anyway, in one of their presentations they presented this interesting chart below. I've got no idea but those numbers circled make this look very cheap.


----------



## pan

kennas said:


> This was identified as a potential breakout in the potential breakout thread, but it's probably not doing that till the upper resistance line is met around 60c.
> 
> It's been mentioned here that it's undervalued and I'm trying to get my head around the numbers. Not generally interested in oil and gas as it seems so hit and miss...
> 
> But anyway, in one of their presentations they presented this interesting chart below. I've got no idea but those numbers circled make this look very cheap.




You purchased any yourself Kennas? I've being following myself for the last few months, along with some of the other csg plays. These number they bring up makes it seem very undervalued, but that is my opinion.


----------



## Sean K

pan said:


> You purchased any yourself Kennas?



Yes, just a handful. A chart trade, expecting a bounce off the lower up trend line. No idea about the fundamentals.


----------



## pan

kennas said:


> Yes, just a handful. A chart trade, expecting a bounce off the lower up trend line. No idea about the fundamentals.




ok,

Where is the lower up trend line? around .48? hopefully it breaks .60 on the next leg up, need the volume to increase though.


----------



## Sean K

pan said:


> ok,
> 
> Where is the lower up trend line? around .48? hopefully it breaks .60 on the next leg up, need the volume to increase though.



Was mentioned by sagitar in the POTENTIAL breakout thread, but has been picked up by a few well known punters here on the fundamentals.

Pick a point on the blue line as the up trend line.

Obviously, if that breaks down significantly, the lower up trend line is no longer and the pattern fails. 

Since I have bought some now, it's bound to fail.

Sorry holders.


----------



## outback

I hope your'e wrong, about making it fail cos you bought that is. Dipped my little toe in, up to my knee. I'll have to watch closely though.


----------



## onshow

Hi all after some reasearch on MEL and a great looking chart i have bought my first lot of shares today at .505 although it closed lower i am still very confident in the long term plan that this company has to bring maximum return to there share holders and the fact that the size of resources that this company has that is bigger and on par with other companys that have a much greater share price. This to me looks very under valued and a great buy. Good luck to all !!


----------



## Largesse

no one's concerned about the shares taken in the rights issue hitting market on Apr 30? 
Could cream off a nice 25% profit selling at market....

i'm going to wait and see with this one, but i like the story so far.


----------



## sagitar

Hi Largesse - a valid and interesting point but honestly I'm not worried myself. Have to remember the rights issue was a 1:8 entitlement, so only a relatively small percentage of an individuals holdings were offered for sale at 40c. Technically-speaking the charts also indicate that accumulation has been occurring for a significant amount of time, so I'd make an educated guess by saying that many are probably medium to long term investors with a longer term time-frame in mind.  Shorter term traders perhaps caught with their pants down during the TH may have found it to be a bonus getting a free slice at 40c, but whether they felt it worthwhile applying for their entitlement could be 50/50 given that most usually have small trade sizes to begin with.  

This is only speculation on my part but logically I think most might like to see the story of MEL unfold before considering whether to sell or buy more.  Those that do sell out will probably be purged out of the market in the first day or two after the new shares come into play.  

The rights issue has possibly partly contributed to why MEL's share price has taken awhile to begin getting off it's feet. Note if you inspect the market cap of other similar CSG players, they are already miles ahead. So, MEL possibly has a lot of catching up to do...but that's just my humble opinion of course.

Interesting times ahead.

cheers and good luck,
Sagitar


----------



## Largesse

sagitar said:


> Hi Largesse - a valid and interesting point but honestly I'm not worried myself. Have to remember the rights issue was a 1:8 entitlement, so only a relatively small percentage of an individuals holdings were offered for sale at 40c. Technically-speaking the charts also indicate that accumulation has been occurring for a significant amount of time, so I'd make an educated guess by saying that many are probably medium to long term investors with a longer term time-frame in mind.  Shorter term traders perhaps caught with their pants down during the TH may have found it to be a bonus getting a free slice at 40c, but whether they felt it worthwhile applying for their entitlement could be 50/50 given that most usually have small trade sizes to begin with.
> 
> This is only speculation on my part but logically I think most might like to see the story of MEL unfold before considering whether to sell or buy more.  Those that do sell out will probably be purged out of the market in the first day or two after the new shares come into play.
> 
> The rights issue has possibly partly contributed to why MEL's share price has taken awhile to begin getting off it's feet. Note if you inspect the market cap of other similar CSG players, they are already miles ahead. So, MEL possibly has a lot of catching up to do...but that's just my humble opinion of course.
> 
> Interesting times ahead.
> 
> cheers and good luck,
> Sagitar





oh mate, don't worry, if there was a MEL bandwagon, i'm definitely riding it, just not in a monetary sense yet.  

i think this one will gain some serious value over the next 12 months as people pick up on relative underpricing of its reserves.

just going to wait a few more days to see if i can pick up a few(not many) cents cheaper if there is a bit of post-rights issue profit taking


----------



## pan

Largesse said:


> oh mate, don't worry, if there was a MEL bandwagon, i'm definitely riding it, just not in a monetary sense yet.
> 
> i think this one will gain some serious value over the next 12 months as people pick up on relative underpricing of its reserves.
> 
> just going to wait a few more days to see if i can pick up a few(not many) cents cheaper if there is a bit of post-rights issue profit taking




I totally agree, the only reason why I haven't purchase any yet is for the same reason. There is an opportunity from the rights issue to make a quick 20% or so. Will be interesting to see what happens on thursday and friday.


----------



## Nero64

Hi Kennas, 

How old is that pdf? It may be a bit dated. 

Mel has come out with 2.7PJ 1P certified. 

No 2P contracts as yet. It doesn't have much cash either. 

Compared to ESG which has 21PJ 1P and an expected 1300PJ 2P by 2010. 

Its NSW rival ESG is a bigger fish. Less risky IMO. 

Then again the whole CSG sector has some element of risk. 

Now compare these two minnows to someone like AOE which has 10+ (Post BPT Tipton West acquisition) the 2P reserves and 150 times 1P reserves of MEL and well comparisons are odious. 

You're better of playing an established company, but then again it may have some potential. Worth a punt.


----------



## Sean K

Nero64 said:


> Hi Kennas,
> 
> How old is that pdf? It may be a bit dated.
> 
> Mel has come out with 2.7PJ 1P certified.
> 
> No 2P contracts as yet. It doesn't have much cash either.



They are currently raising about $8m in a rights issue.

This information below is from a presentation on 31 March, should be up to date.

I agree the others have some fantastic assets, hence why their market caps are a tad above this. It's a question of picking things that seem undervalued for me, not the just the best assets. Higher risk, but higher returns. I still know very little about CSM though, so I've probably bought a turkey. Cheers.


----------



## Dangerous

Nero64 said:


> Hi Kennas,
> 
> How old is that pdf? It may be a bit dated.
> 
> Mel has come out with 2.7PJ 1P certified.
> 
> No 2P contracts as yet. It doesn't have much cash either.
> 
> Compared to ESG which has 21PJ 1P and an expected 1300PJ 2P by 2010.
> 
> Its NSW rival ESG is a bigger fish. Less risky IMO.
> 
> Then again the whole CSG sector has some element of risk.
> 
> Now compare these two minnows to someone like AOE which has 10+ (Post BPT Tipton West acquisition) the 2P reserves and 150 times 1P reserves of MEL and well comparisons are odious.
> 
> You're better of playing an established company, but then again it may have some potential. Worth a punt.




MEL reserves are as good as ESG (quantity wise)... Further to this MEL mkt cap is one-tenth that of ESG.  AOE mkt close to $2B from memory, ESG $600M and MEL $50M.... I think you should have a closer look.  

What i like about ESG and MEL is that CSG is proven as a domestic gas supply and NSW is facing power probs.  CSG to LNG is unproven.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Still accumulating MEL (have quite a few now)

To those that don't know *MEL has 2P of 247 PJ and 3P of 1400 PJ* and this is in one of its many permits (note MEL holds a 85% interest in this permit with CS Energy holding the balance 15% but the Gas reserves are NET to MEL

To understand what 2P if 247PJ's and 3P of 1400PJ's is worth look no further than MPO's sale of its NSW Gloucester PEL 285 for $370m to AGL

PEL 285 had 2P of 180 PJ and 3P of 360 PJ 

Then recently Origin paid $660m for a permit which has no reserves yet but Origin expects to book 1150 PJ 3P

These 2 transactions only add to the long list of consolidations in the CSG space

*I expect a value of $2 per 2P or 60c per 3P = for MEL $500m - $840m = $2.80-$4.80 in value*

It may take another 6months maybe even 12months but I'm happy to accumulate and wait given the potential upside


----------



## sagitar

Nice work YT! Always enjoy reading your financial takes on companies. I'm primarily a chartist but having a bit of financial backbone to compliment the charts certainly helps to reaffirm one's view on a stock. Looking forward to see how this story unfolds.
cheers


----------



## Nero64

> I think you should have a closer look




Yeah I did. Market caps are around 660 Mil, 74 Mil respectively. Don't worry about the market cap though. Worry about the cash on hand. ESG has 27Mil compared to MEL's 2 Mil. 

MEL has 154Mill share outstanding compared to 853Mil ESG, so there is a bit of dilution there for ESG. 

ESG has a larger asset base. On paper it has more than BOW, but it's not next door to AOE (Hence less of a take over target)

But yeah both have potential. 

AOE still moving ahead daily though(Broke out above $3, now at $3.35), and the CEO is becoming a master at those timely press releases.


----------



## Sean K

Nero64 said:


> Yeah I did. Market caps are around 660 Mil, 74 Mil respectively. Don't worry about the market cap though.



 Don't worry about market caps? So, what do you think is the most important thing in assessing how undervalued a company is after it's asset base?


----------



## Sean K

Nero64 said:


> Worry about the cash on hand. ESG has 27Mil compared to MEL's 2 Mil.



Actually ESG have more cash than that. They've done a capital raising and now have about $70m in the bank I think. Did you happen to read above that MEL have done a rights issue? Another factor to consider will be cash burn. Perhaps ESG needs more cash? Anyway, I'm sure you'll think of another way to make your choice of stock sound better. Good luck.


----------



## Dangerous

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> *I expect a value of $2 per 2P or 60c per 3P = for MEL $500m - $840m = $2.80-$4.80 in value*
> 
> It may take another 6months maybe even 12months but I'm happy to accumulate and wait given the potential upside




YT - I don't think you will see $2/GJ for 2P for these tenements for some time.  Remember that the QLD tenements are close to existing pipelines (always consider how you get the gas to mkt) and current spot price for PRODUCERS is around $3/GJ.  MEL are a long way off producing and it is unlikely their gas be used for LNG, which is the fundamental reason for QLD takeovers.

However!, if the mkt considers the recent power shortages in NSW and we see someone getting in there and building some gas-fired power stations, we could have a weiner young hot dog and perhaps your $2 call could be right.

In summary, until we some NSW takeovers (other than SGL) it is hard to ascertain a pric.  Further to this CSG to domestic gas mkt is proven (sorry but this record is broken).

Keep posting mate.  Good input


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Dangerous said:


> YT - I don't think you will see $2/GJ for 2P for these tenements for some time.  Remember that the QLD tenements are close to existing pipelines (always consider how you get the gas to mkt) and current spot price for PRODUCERS is around $3/GJ.  MEL are a long way off producing and it is unlikely their gas be used for LNG, which is the fundamental reason for QLD takeovers.
> 
> However!, if the mkt considers the recent power shortages in NSW and we see someone getting in there and building some gas-fired power stations, we could have a weiner young hot dog and perhaps your $2 call could be right.
> 
> In summary, until we some NSW takeovers (other than SGL) it is hard to ascertain a pric.  Further to this CSG to domestic gas mkt is proven (sorry but this record is broken).
> 
> Keep posting mate.  Good input





Yeah I thought that too but SGL did go for $4 of 2P and $3 of 3P

Then late last year/ealry this year MPO sold its NSW Gloucester PEL 285 for $370m to AGL which was equivalent to $2 2P AND $1 3P

So no I dont think $2 2P is out of the question, in fact I think its the cheapest we can expect


----------



## Nero64

> Actually ESG have more cash than that. They've done a capital raising and now have about $70m in the bank I think. Did you happen to read above that MEL have done a rights issue? Another factor to consider will be cash burn. Perhaps ESG needs more cash? Anyway, I'm sure you'll think of another way to make your choice of stock sound better. Good luck.




70M that sounds even better. 

Cash = Out perform

No I don't own MEL or ESG. Just own AOE, but I like the CSG sector and think ESG is showing more potential ATM. That doesn't mean I won't buy MEL.


----------



## Sean K

Nero64 said:


> Cash = Out perform



You sound like a very astute and learned fundamental analyst of O&G companies so I will definately be watching your posts closely.


----------



## N1Spec

MEL bounced off the lower trendline predictably today..... will it breakout of the asc triangle finally?? next week we shall know


----------



## Mactavish

oh yeah, got in at 0.465 yesterday, what price do you guys think the share will break out too? target?


----------



## Sean K

Mactavish said:


> oh yeah, got in at 0.465 yesterday, what price do you guys think the share will break out too? target?



From a breakout of a triangle the target is the widest distance of the triangle, which is about 30c upside. That makes 90c. Long way to go before breakout though. It's an ascending triangle (bullish) but it's still long term down trending, so probablilities are lower imo.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

I'm not really fussed with the short term movements of MEL as it is a no brainer CSG takeover play for me, its a matter of when not if

But good to see 50c the new support level is holding


----------



## Datsun Disguise

A strong finish today and moving awfully close to our 60c breakout target. Reasonable volume traded as well. Any comments from the chartists on the last week or so?

I'd love to see that 30c breakout materialise!


----------



## Mactavish

Another week has gone by and i was tempted to sell out at 52 cents on tues/wed when the price dropped a few cents, but im glad im still in to receive todays gains, come on breakout!


----------



## Dukey

Hey! - got my full allocation of new shares...  - only 9000 odd - but more than my entitlement , so was quite pleasantly surprised esp since the SP is 15c higher . ... there is alot to be said for an easy grand in the bank isn't there !!
- not planning on selling though. at least for the medium term.
I'm with YT here - likely t/o target sometime.... by someone!
... waiting .... waiting...
-e


----------



## Sean K

Datsun Disguise said:


> A strong finish today and moving awfully close to our 60c breakout target. Reasonable volume traded as well. Any comments from the chartists on the last week or so?
> 
> I'd love to see that 30c breakout materialise!



Yep, it's looking really good, but that resistance is a challenge. My next buy will probably be off the lower support, or through 60, which _should_ be a great oportunity.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

kennas said:


> __________________
> Mexico holiday - Isla Mujeres




Great place, I was there a while ago, I had a great time - so totally chilled... I'm very envoius.  I may go back again some time and combine it with a road trip to the pacific... Puerto Escondido, one of my other fave places on the planet...


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Good increase in SP Friday... didn't we have the same last Friday?  Most likely a big conicidence, or people waiting to see if there was a sell off after the capital raising, which happened to some extent, but quite limited really.  Low of .505 this week I think.


----------



## Sean K

CapnBirdseye said:


> Great place, I was there a while ago, I had a great time - so totally chilled... I'm very envoius.  I may go back again some time and combine it with a road trip to the pacific... Puerto Escondido, one of my other fave places on the planet...



Yes, this is my second visit here, and first stop of the month trip. Will be coming back for the final couple of days as well. Awesome coastline all the way to The Bay Islands Honduras really. Like North Queensland except there are wide white fluffy beaches, the reef is closer, and you can get in the water without a stinger suit, nor worry about prehistoric reptiles hiding in waiting. 

What's this thread about?

Ah, MEL.

Just on that breakup from 60 and the potential target from the triangle, there is another factor at play technically tha will be difficult to overcome I think and that is all the congestion between 70 and 90c. We could well release through that after 60, but it won't be an easy road from the looks of that..

The longer term funnymentalists don't need to worry about too much of course and just wait till your true value is reached. 

Still lots of uncertainties in these plays, so I tend to just follow the charts.


----------



## Datsun Disguise

kennas said:


> Yep, it's looking really good, but that resistance is a challenge. My next buy will probably be off the lower support, or through 60, which _should_ be a great oportunity.




There goes 60c - will it hold is the next question. Looking at the chart (imo) this is just waiting for a breakout - rising support line - flat resistance, sellers being slowly weeded out - noting the congestion at 70-80c tho. Might need some positive news to move through that barrier.


----------



## kingbrown

Have been chasing this critter since last thursday and she's hit turbo today 
Guess its all the hoo haa! about SANTOS noticed ESG did well also

Ahh well waiting for a re-trace tomorrow ??


----------



## Dukey

kingbrown said:


> Have been chasing this critter since last thursday and she's hit turbo today
> Guess its all the hoo haa! about SANTOS noticed ESG did well also
> 
> Ahh well waiting for a re-trace tomorrow ??




Don't say that!!   I'm waiting for 70c tomorrow!!

.. no but seriously - I wouldn't be surprised to see MEL hold above 60c. Still undervalued compared to most CSG'ers but some consolidation there before the next move up might be a good thing.

Another potential buyer in the  market won't hurt either!

- the 40c shares were a great pickup for holders. I initially expected it to hover in the low 40's while people offloaded... but then you'd be mad wouldn't you.. really. considering the whole ongoing CSG hype etc.


----------



## Dangerous

Datsun Disguise said:


> There goes 60c - will it hold is the next question. Looking at the chart (imo) this is just waiting for a breakout - rising support line - flat resistance, sellers being slowly weeded out - noting the congestion at 70-80c tho. Might need some positive news to move through that barrier.





at one point yesterday there was about 1.8M buyers and 134,000 sellers.  An hour later there was a few more buyers but 1.1M sellers!  After seeing that i'm thinking it will struggle to get past 70...  still though a positive announcement from MEL or someone else in NSW and we're on.

Like you Dukey i applied for a lot more than my entitlement.  When i saw it was fully subscribed i went and bought more at 49c and then when my allocation came through i was pumped - i got 65% of my application.

Happy at this stage, but not too trusting of the markets at the moment (i give them two months max).  Cautious on everything but gold, HGO, LNN (for a 6% gain) and WOW


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

I keep saying it and have since 40c when (not if) the takeover comes its going to many multiples of current share price

Look at any other CSG companies presentation and if they have a bit on comparative EV's you see that MEL is the cheapest by far on 2P and 3P booked reserves

So hence why I have a truckload and am not fussed about movements here or there but rather waiting for the takeover


----------



## johannlo

Well I don't have a truckload (LOL) but I do hope you're right young trader.

The figures do look good to my amateur eyes.

There will be big gains for all gas explorers w/ good reserves and enough cashflow to keep operating till paydirt (I also hold CNX along with this logic) likewise I am waiting for big rises before selling as opposed to 20% quick profit, as tempting as it may be.


----------



## Dangerous

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> So hence why I have a truckload and am not fussed about movements here or there but rather waiting for the takeover




Looking good isn't it....

Like i said yesterday, we want to get past 70c.

I am enjoying sitting on a stock that doesn't worry me


----------



## kingbrown

kingbrown said:


> Have been chasing this critter since last thursday and she's hit turbo today
> Guess its all the hoo haa! about SANTOS noticed ESG did well also
> 
> Ahh well waiting for a re-trace tomorrow ??




I did get in on the re-trace yesty Dukey 
he he !

Must have been asleep to miss this one before hand 

Go the METGAS EXPRESS !!  

Note: ESG also touched 96 today


----------



## bonkerrs

My first post of a chart and first draw of a triangle.

Just at the very start of my learning curve. Any comments or advice on better chart skills would be appreciated.


----------



## kingbrown

BG GROUP is on the cusp of signing up the first customer for LNG from coal-seam gas, in a sign that demand for the fuel is weathering the oil-price slump.


The British company yesterday revealed an agreement that would allow China National Oil Corporation to buy half the gas from BG's Gladstone project and take equity in it.

Under the offtake agreement - which has yet to be finalised - the Chinese Government-owned company would buy 3.6 million tonnes a year of LNG for 20 years. It would also take a 10 per cent stake in the LNG processing units and buy 5 per cent of BG's gas interests in the area.

BG would not say how much the Chinese company was willing to pay, but a spokesman said the deal would represent a "meaningful premium" to the upstream acquisition costs in its takeover of Queensland Gas.

BG paid $5.5 billion for Queensland Gas last year and $1 billion for Pure Energy this year.

BG's chief executive, Frank Chapman, said the agreement was an "important milestone" for the company's plans to export 7.4 million tonnes of the gas from Gladstone from 2014.

The deal has not yet gained regulatory approval, but it is not expected to face the hurdles that have dogged other Chinese-Government investment plans.

Analysts said the agreement was good news for the three other LNG projects in the region involving Origin Energy, Santos and Arrow Energy and their overseas partners.

After a 70 per cent slump in oil prices, analysts had warned of delays to the projects because buyers would be driving a hard bargain in sales negotiations.

Sceptics have also argued the $20 billion takeover frenzy in coal-seam gas in recent years was a bubble waiting to burst.

An analyst at Wilson HTM, John Young, said the strong demand and the buyers's willingness to take an equity position in LNG projects were positive for the rival projects.

"It's just another sign that this industry's going to develop," Mr Young said.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/bg-deal-fuels-hopes-for-gas-project-20090513-b3d5.html

I also noted usa energy guru Pickens saying oil $70 befire $50
$75 to $80 a barrell by xmas 
All good for our little gasers imo


----------



## Sean K

There's some Hot Cockerish expressions creaping in here. Please be calm, reasonable, and try not to toot toot. Thanks!


Anyone think that this sector is bubblish? I'm taking advantage of it, but cautious. 


Chart wise, nice break up, but the overall market looks toppish. Nothing likely to be saved on the next leg down if it is swift. Be prepared to trade, or watch paper disappear...


----------



## Mc Gusto

Well i like the look of these MEL's! So i hopped on today at 62cents. Thank you all for your comments and analysis. This has been quite a useful thread.

Thanks

Gusto


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

kennas said:


> There's some Hot Cockerish expressions creaping in here. Please be calm, reasonable, and try not to toot toot. Thanks!
> 
> 
> Anyone think that this sector is bubblish? I'm taking advantage of it, but cautious.
> 
> 
> Chart wise, nice break up, but the overall market looks toppish. Nothing likely to be saved on the next leg down if it is swift. Be prepared to trade, or watch paper disappear...




Hey Kennas, cockerish hey? lol 

Agree completely if the mkt tanks everything will also get hurt, but some less than others and some will just present an excellent buying opportunity, for exampl take a look at PES Pure Energy's chart during the height of the GFC Crash, didn't stop BG paying over $8's for it and thats the key as far as I'm concerned, bubble or not there has been too many acquisitons in this sector for it to just go stone cold and MEL is the cheapest takeover  play out there on an EV basis, its an anomoly that has to be fixed by either every other CSG stock coming way down and the companies who have been taking others over saying whoops we've been paying far too much or by MEL rising, I obviously hope for the latter

ps toot toot :


----------



## Sean K

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Kennas, cockerish hey? lol
> 
> ....
> 
> ps toot toot :



 LOL, LN,

Yes, I agree the sector is looking good and this is undervalued on peer to peer as has been discussed. Thus, I have my granny's heart stones on it.

I also agree, the next leg down will present a good buying opportunity in those stocks oversold in oversold sectors. Cripes! Look at the entire junior resource sector the past 4 months. 100-500% gains. If we fall over a cliff again, then we may well see that opportunity again. Toot toot! lol


----------



## Largesse

someone needs to step in and keep this from closing under 60 today.
need the weekly to close above 60c


----------



## johannlo

I wouldn't be too worried about it in the v short term. Look at the market depth. Tonnes of buyers just under 60 and ---- all sellers so it should push back up to low-mid 60s over next few trading days. 

Buyers  	
Number 	Quantity 	  	Price 	 
3 	111,465 	  	59 	 
5 	113,257 	  	58 	 
3 	105,000 	  	57.5 	 
3 	15,252 	  	57 	 
2 	63,270 	  	56 	 
1 	30,000 	  	55.5 	 
8 	132,968 	  	55 	 
1 	25,000 	  	53 	 
2 	13,846 	  	52 	 
1 	50,000 	  	51.5 	 
3 	76,000 	  	51 	 
3 	47,737 	  	50.5 	 
5 	52,893 	  	50 	 
1 	7,500 	  	49 	 
4 	62,500 	  	48 	 
1 	10,000 	  	47 	 
3 	25,500 	  	46 	 
3 	20,600 	  	45 	 
1 	16,000 	  	44 	 
1 	9,000 	  	43 	 


Sellers

Price 	Quantity 	  	Number
59.5 	7,294 	  	1
60 	30,000 	  	1
61 	22,875 	  	2
62 	85,000 	  	5
63.5 	5,000 	  	1
64 	5,000 	  	1
64.5 	19,985 	  	1
65 	33,900 	  	3
65.5 	8,300 	  	1
66 	35,660 	  	3
67 	37,938 	  	2
67.5 	28,965 	  	2
68 	24,646 	  	2
68.5 	52,730 	  	3
69 	40,212 	  	4
69.5 	139,860 	  	4
70 	85,652 	  	4
70.5 	30,000 	  	1
71.5 	27,000 	  	1
73 	12,800 	  	2


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Like I said I'm not really paying too close attention to the movement, just waiting for eventual takeover but this looked like a treeshaking exercise to me

The way that the big sell in the morning which was done to break support


----------



## johannlo

Sorry youngtrader what do you mean by the sell was done to break support?

As in someone sold to intentionally bring the price down? So they're doing this to benefit the takeover (ie so it can be done at a lower SP?)


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

johannlo said:


> Sorry youngtrader what do you mean by the sell was done to break support?
> 
> As in someone sold to intentionally bring the price down? So they're doing this to benefit the takeover (ie so it can be done at a lower SP?)





Draw your own conclusions, but its just like someone wanted to bring the SP down hence the big whack instead of drip feeding it into the depth, had they not whacked it 60c would have easily held today as it did yesterday, maybe I'm just being paranoid  

Draw what conclusions you will

Reserves are there, Cheapest CSG play on the ASX and with the spate of takeovers and deals being done its only a matter of time imo


----------



## studmuffin

Whipsaws are quite common around s/r lines often intentionaly to flush out  weak hands. My stops got hit on this one but due to the fact it went back above 60 so quick I figured it was juts a gap fill and got got back in.


----------



## Mactavish

I got out at 0.64 on open, looking to get back in soon. hopefully low 50's, c'mon retrace!!!, not bad profit for holding 2/3 weeks, got in at 0.465


----------



## Datsun Disguise

Mactavish said:


> I got out at 0.64 on open, looking to get back in soon. hopefully low 50's, c'mon retrace!!!, not bad profit for holding 2/3 weeks, got in at 0.465




you can take your retrace hopes and file them in missed opportunities basket - perhaps I'll sell my parcel back to you at 97c after you realise you've missed the boat............

(I hold - faithfully)


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Datsun Disguise said:


> you can take your retrace hopes and file them in missed opportunities basket - perhaps I'll sell my parcel back to you at 97c after you realise you've missed the boat............
> 
> (I hold - faithfully)




Hmmm, got stopped out on Friday on the little spike down.  Hoping for a re-entry chance, maybe if the overall market takes a battering for a day or 2 next week there could be an opportunity.  Only time will tell if my stop was a good thing or not.  Anythig could happen short term, but I do believe MEL is a good opportunity in the longer term.  Still made +30% so a profit is a profit.


----------



## Nero64

> you can take your retrace hopes and file them in missed opportunities basket - perhaps I'll sell my parcel back to you at 97c after you realise you've missed the boat...........




I like your optimism, but the price of oil fell $2 or so on Friday which may put some pressure on the Oil and Gas sector at large.


----------



## Datsun Disguise

Nothing like optimism to get you into all sorts of strife. Do I really know what is going to happen re MEL? No. I am hoping for a steady appreciation, with a few bounces of the 60c support line to turn what was the resistance into support. My view on the chart is that it has got breakout written all over it. Anyway, as the capn' says if the market tanks then anything could happen and I'll have to eat my words    -  again. I'm not concerned about the poo - short term fluctuations shouldn't impact too much, a drop of $10over time might be a problem, but I think that oil is going to start heading back up over the next qtr - and god help us when global growth starts to appear again.... *The story with MEL is not about energy prices but more about an undervaluing of it's assets which should be corrected in time.* (Before next Wednesday would be good).


----------



## Sean K

I'm still a big believer in strong fundamentals, backed by chart support.

Why buy a stock heading completely and absolutely south that is crap?

Buy a stock with good funnies, that is not going down, maybe bottomed, possibly heading up, and kazam!!!

It's not that hard, really....

Add a stop.


----------



## Go Nuke

I thought last week that MEL would have support at 60c but if the DOW takes a hit like it has then it would have to have been extremely strong support to hold 60c.


1) I too like YT think that someone is trying to keep a lid on this sp with some biggish sell orders. Look at 60c now with over 100K capping the upside.

2)It may sink down to the longer term uptrend line...around about 55c.(this would also bring us back to about the middle range of the Bolly Bands being the 21day MA)

3) Longer term uptrend line would suggest an absolute low of about 50-52c. A break below this would signal a sell.

Looking at the bigger picture though MEL is still in an uptrend and in the right sector at the moment so I will hold for the many reasons outlined by others (ie value comparison)

ps, at 57c now. Gap has been totally closed.


----------



## Mc Gusto

Agreed Nuke

MEL seems to be showing strength in the base around 55cents. I bought in at 60 but c'est la vie i like them and i am holding.

Thanks

Gusto


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Go Nuke said:


> I
> 1) I too like YT think that someone is trying to keep a lid on this sp with some biggish sell orders. Look at 60c now with over 100K capping the upside.
> 
> ps, at 57c now. Gap has been totally closed.




I thought you were being a little paranoid.  Not so sure now, there are lots of little sell orders coming in to match buy orders when the buy/sell gaps, keeping the SP down.


----------



## johannlo

newbie question, (ducks head)

Assuming this is the case (and I like paranoia), and someone is intentionally dumping stock - doesn't this mean they're foregoing the profit they would make if they let it keep going up?

And what reasons would they have to do this save to have a low SPP so takeover comes in on the cheap? But if they already held MEL shares wouldn't they make more if it sold more? Or is it the case that they see such potential that cheaper takeover price outweighs the gain they would make selling off higher priced MEL?

are there any other scenarios other than the one I've outlined above? I ask in a general sense i.e. not specifically to do with MEL though obviously the answer may fit 

<confused and naive>


----------



## Datsun Disguise

Hey Nuke - that is the prettiest graph I've seen for a long time, post some more - go on.

Jolo - if a take over player is trying to cap the price I don't think it would have much effect on the final board recommended sell price. When takeovers happen - unless they are hostile on market raids - you will find the board making all sorts of astronomical valuations on current, future and any other sort of asset they can find. Higher the valuation higher the price and all s/h's are happy.

I reckon it's just price weakness, I'd be surprised if anyone was manipulating - but I'm surprised on a daily basis....

I like MEL and hold.


----------



## skc

johannlo said:


> newbie question, (ducks head)
> 
> Assuming this is the case (and I like paranoia), and someone is intentionally dumping stock - doesn't this mean they're foregoing the profit they would make if they let it keep going up?




Short sellers never held the stock so they can profit from a price fall without foregoing the profit they would have made if the price keeps going up. Not that I think MEL is targeted by shorters, given it's takeover possibility. Check the ASX daily short seller info to confirm.

If a current holder is intentionally keeping price down, then he can still benefit in the end because of the volume he is dealing with. It may cost him 10m shares to keep the price <60c, but saves him 5c a share on 200m shares when he announce the takeover. That's a decent return.

Of course, there's also the fact that MEL isn't actually a profitable company, but just a spec. There is no guarantee that it will be taken over and that it is possibly falling because of the fundamentals.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

skc said:


> Short sellers never held the stock so they can profit from a price fall without foregoing the profit they would have made if the price keeps going up. Not that I think MEL is targeted by shorters, given it's takeover possibility. Check the ASX daily short seller info to confirm.
> 
> If a current holder is intentionally keeping price down, then he can still benefit in the end because of the volume he is dealing with. It may cost him 10m shares to keep the price <60c, but saves him 5c a share on 200m shares when he announce the takeover. That's a decent return.
> 
> Of course, there's also the fact that MEL isn't actually a profitable company, but just a spec. There is no guarantee that it will be taken over and that it is possibly falling because of the fundamentals.




I've never used the short sell list as a resourse, but it's a fairly interesting list.  Not much shorting at all at the moment.

http://www.asx.com.au/data/Shortsell.txt


----------



## pointr

skc said:


> Of course, there's also the fact that MEL isn't actually a profitable company, but just a spec. There is no guarantee that it will be taken over and that it is possibly falling because of the fundamentals.




I've already posted on some of the fundamentals that will make it harder for MEL to develop it's CSG assetts in an area of more environmental sensitivity,population density and more difficult geographics for infrastructure. The current flooding in this relatively wet north east of NSW is a reminder of another potential development problem in this area, that of water disposal from CSG wells. 
Just my  to add to the diversity of views that make up a market


----------



## IMSancho

New announcement is out, http://www.metgasco.com.au/files/725856.pdf

Seems to paint a fairly rosy picture, though not sure if there is really anything new that we didn't already know having only had a quick skim through it. 

Got back in today after getting stopped out earlier in the week, will be interesting to see where this one goes.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

IMSancho said:


> New announcement is out, http://www.metgasco.com.au/files/725856.pdf
> 
> Seems to paint a fairly rosy picture, though not sure if there is really anything new that we didn't already know having only had a quick skim through it.
> 
> Got back in today after getting stopped out earlier in the week, will be interesting to see where this one goes.




Highlights yet again how they are the cheapest Aust CSG player on a 2P or 3P basis

This is called an anomoly and one which will no doubt eventually be rectified, just a matter of time and patience


----------



## skc

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Highlights yet again how they are the cheapest Aust CSG player on a 2P or 3P basis
> 
> This is called an anomoly and one which will no doubt eventually be rectified, just a matter of time and patience




Anom*a*ly can be rectified by either MEL going up, or others coming back down...

I hold so hopefully it will be UP.


----------



## Go Nuke

Datsun Disguise said:


> Hey Nuke - that is the prettiest graph I've seen for a long time, post some more - go on.
> 
> Jolo - if a take over player is trying to cap the price I don't think it would have much effect on the final board recommended sell price. When takeovers happen - unless they are hostile on market raids - you will find the board making all sorts of astronomical valuations on current, future and any other sort of asset they can find. Higher the valuation higher the price and all s/h's are happy.
> 
> I reckon it's just price weakness, I'd be surprised if anyone was manipulating - but I'm surprised on a daily basis....
> 
> I like MEL and hold.




Thanks DD

Ive never called "tweezer bottom" before but so far thats what we have today which is *potenialy* bullish.

Also watch for the stochastics keeping to their uptrend with is also bullish. They are ready to turn up off that trend line soon imo.

Low volume also preceeds high volume and we are also seeing that.

AND it looks so far as though the sp has support from the 200 day MA

Everything styill looks great from my point of view.


----------



## johannlo

Good points with the above. I wish I knew more about CSG mechanics to make an accurate assessment of the underlying statistics. As a newbie with no background in mining or energy its difficult to know how 'true' the stats being bandied around are, I know how much methodology and context can affect how 'real' the statistics are. 

Based on everything i've read going to go medium term with this and disregard the short term movements, barring any earth shattering revelations. From my limited experience I've gotta draw a line in the sand and decide whether a given stock is a trade, a wait and see or a long termer, and act accordingly.


----------



## studmuffin

johannlo said:


> As a newbie with no background in mining or energy its difficult to know how 'true' the stats being bandied around are, I know how much methodology and context can affect how 'real' the statistics are.




Just never forget the old saying "a mine aint nothing but a hole in the ground and a liar on top" Then you will never be dissapointed


----------



## Sean K

studmuffin said:


> Just never forget the old saying "a mine aint nothing but a hole in the ground and a liar on top" Then you will never be dissapointed



There is certainly LOTS to consider with funadamental analysis. Probably moreso than TA in my opinion, which is why I like to use it as a crutch. Not sure where the bid money is made however. Picking a stock you think is undervalued and backing it. Or, trading technicals with clear money management rules. Or, mix it up.


----------



## db96

This one is about to hit the lower trendline at about 50c. With the XAO looking a wee little bit toppy, will the support trendline hold????


----------



## Dukey

Nice blue chart there - how do you squeeze that out of Bigcharts.com?? I just get boring white ones!!

- MEL: will be interesting to see what happens. I'm expecting a bounce from around 50c back towards the recent high - but general market sentiment could throw a spanner in the works.

- here's hoping for the former. - dukey


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

MEL has a very important well underway drilling on PEL 13 which is next door to PEL 16

This well is important because 100% of MELs large reserves are on PEL 16 (and only a small portion of it ie 5%-10% of PEL 16)

Success in this well will confirm continuity of the CSG resource throughout broader parts of PEL 16 and into PEL 13, could be a real big company making well IMO


Still Im here for the takeover play


----------



## Largesse

in what time frame would we expect results to realistically start filtering through?

talking days or weeks?


----------



## Agentm

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> MEL has a very important well underway drilling on PEL 13 which is next door to PEL 16
> 
> This well is important because 100% of MELs large reserves are on PEL 16 (and only a small portion of it ie 5%-10% of PEL 16)
> 
> Success in this well will confirm continuity of the CSG resource throughout broader parts of PEL 16 and into PEL 13, could be a real big company making well IMO
> 
> 
> Still Im here for the takeover play




i like the well myself

it has 75% ownership by mel, and i agree a well like this could be a company maker

lets see how this one plays out.. i hope i will be glad to be on board this one


----------



## CapnBirdseye

I'm certain someome is taking advantage of poor liquidity to dump stock to hit the SP.  

A very strange trade went through at 0.55 just big enough to drop to that level.  

I don't think I'm being paranoid here.


----------



## adobee

From the annoucement a few days ago..
"Metgasco (ASX:MEL) advises that the drilling of the coal seam gas (CSG) exploration well Wyan-E1 has commenced."

Does anyone have ideas of time frames for result of drilling of the csg to be announced to market ?? are we looking 3-6 weeks or 3-6 months ?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Hey Adobee, weeks if that not months, its very easy to see if you've hit coal in the drill cores,

Testing the coal quality for its gassyness takes a bit longer

Very important well though 



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> MEL has a very important well underway drilling on PEL 13 which is next door to PEL 16
> 
> This well is important because 100% of MELs large reserves are on PEL 16 (and only a small portion of it ie 5%-10% of PEL 16)
> 
> Success in this well will confirm continuity of the CSG resource throughout broader parts of PEL 16 and into PEL 13, could be a real big company making well IMO
> 
> 
> Still Im here for the takeover play


----------



## Skip1jz

Looks like MEL and MPO are about to go into trading halt, just tried to get a quote on both stoks and they were both Pre Open.  Lets hope for positive news on Wyan-E1. :I hold MEL:


----------



## Sean K

No idea what this means.

There's gas?


Free Gas Flows from Wyan–E1

Metgasco (ASX:MEL) advises that over the past week the Wyan-E1 coal seam gas exploration well has been drilled.

This well is a vertical exploration well drilled to a total depth of 702 metres. The Walloon Coal Measures were intersected at the predicted depth. A number of coal seams were present, however Metgasco is unable to advise the net coal at this location until the interpretation of wireline logs has been completed.

Free gas shows were observed during drilling. Metgasco conducted two flow tests of approximately 8 hours each. 

The first production test was performed over the interval from 402 to 456 metres containing the Richmond coal seam. A continuous production test demonstrated gas flows of approximately 120,000 standard cubic feet per day (“scfd”) through a 24/64” choke.

A second production test of a further 8 hours was conducted over the total Walloons section once the well reached total depth. This test demonstrated sustained gas flows in excess of 160,000 scfd throughout the period with a flow rate at the end of the period of approximately 175,000 scfd through a 24/64” choke.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

I guess it means there is gas, and now MEL is in pre open, or at least thats what Comsec is telling me... trading halt coming?


----------



## Mc Gusto

yes gas and yes pre-open.

seems they can't drill as deep as they wanted but there is plenty of gas by the sounds of things!

the dogs will be running


thanks

Gusto


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Skip1jz said:


> Looks like MEL and MPO are about to go into trading halt, just tried to get a quote on both stoks and they were both Pre Open.  Lets hope for positive news on Wyan-E1. :I hold MEL:




Ok, just read up the forum.  Like you said skip.  Lets wait and see what happens next.

Oh spoke to soon, we are open again..


----------



## lbarks

not much excitement in SP after that announcement. Sounds like theres gas there somewhere though. now looking forward to riflebird-E15


----------



## Mc Gusto

weird that one - back trading again and yes both MPO and MEL were in halt.

Strange

Thanks

Gusto


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Skip1jz said:


> Looks like MEL and MPO are about to go into trading halt, just tried to get a quote on both stoks and they were both Pre Open.  Lets hope for positive news on Wyan-E1. :I hold MEL:




Ok, I'll be careful putting my tin foil hat on again, but someone is dumping stock on a rising price.  Or is there another more plausible explanation?


----------



## UPKA

CapnBirdseye said:


> Ok, I'll be careful putting my tin foil hat on again, but someone is dumping stock on a rising price.  Or is there another more plausible explanation?




a dump is when a large order is sold off at market price. when the order is sitting at a limit price, sounds more like a cap to me...


----------



## Mad Mel

What I took from the announcement was:

-Free gas flows means that there's gas.  I hope someone with good CSG knowledge will comment on the flow rates.
-They intersected two different coal formations which potentially can be developed.  Both flowed gas to the surface.
-The hole bridged (collapsed?) above the WCM, so they can't wireline log below that depth.  I assume this means that they won't be able to determine the thickness of the coals in the WCM.
-The existence of the WCM that far west is a very good thing for MEL's PEL13.


----------



## johannlo

I'm naturally inclined towards paranoia  and I can find no other explanation for this behaviour except for the market behaving completely irrationally. Occam's razor and all that.....

something is afoot that us ordinary retail investors are not aware of.


----------



## Agentm

The average CSG well produces between 5,000 and 30,000 m3 of gas per day.

http://www.pesa.com.au/Publications/pesa_news/latest_edition/images/pn100_70-72.pdf


1 Square Meter = 3 Square Feet


well reports 175,000 scfd through a 24/64” choke.


divide by 3

58,333 m3 gas per day


----------



## shag

one cubic metre isnt 3 square foot...
more like 9 in very rough figures.
its 3d not linear.
cant be bothered to work out exact figures. who uses imperial anyway.


----------



## Mad Mel

I'm mostly curious if these numbers provide any inference of what production figures may look like.  Or perhaps they're completely unrelated.  Or is it as simple as free-flowing gas = a good sign...  or does it mean absolutely nothing when it comes to production later on.


----------



## UPKA

free flowing gas is def a good sign, as most cases with CSG u'll find that a lot of water needs to be pumped out before any gas flow.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

shag said:


> one cubic metre isnt 3 square foot...
> more like 9 in very rough figures.
> its 3d not linear.
> cant be bothered to work out exact figures. who uses imperial anyway.




It works out to be 5000m3 per day.

Try this little app.... very handy indeed.

http://wscope.com/download/convert.exe


----------



## Agentm

shag said:


> one cubic metre isnt 3 square foot...
> more like 9 in very rough figures.
> its 3d not linear.
> cant be bothered to work out exact figures. who uses imperial anyway.




your right

i am mixing up volumes and areas, so disregard, i was merely trying to convert the volumes reported to a industry report which used metric..   and i did it badly..


----------



## Mad Mel

Mad Mel said:


> -They intersected two different coal formations which potentially can be developed.  Both flowed gas to the surface.




Please note that this statement is incorrect...  the Richmond seam is contained in the WCM.   Too late for the edit button, unfortunately.


----------



## woltage

175 mcf/day is well below PES flow rates in Cameron wells of 750 and 1000 mcf/day. Average in Surat-Bowen basin is 600 mcf/day, Sydney basin is 500 mcf/day according to

http://85.185.226.180/ahwaz/files/downloads/article/spe2007/SPE-106850-MS.pdf

I sold out based on this info.


----------



## Mad Mel

woltage said:


> 175 mcf/day is well below PES flow rates in Cameron wells of 750 and 1000 mcf/day. Average in Surat-Bowen basin is 600 mcf/day, Sydney basin is 500 mcf/day according to
> 
> http://85.185.226.180/ahwaz/files/downloads/article/spe2007/SPE-106850-MS.pdf
> 
> I sold out based on this info.




It sounds like you might be able to answer my question about relating post-drilling gas discharge and production volumes.  I take it you feel that this well will not meet the production volumes similar to those in the article?


----------



## woltage

Mad Mel said:


> It sounds like you might be able to answer my question about relating post-drilling gas discharge and production volumes.  I take it you feel that this well will not meet the production volumes similar to those in the article?




According to Metgasco, rates are supposed to improve with de-watering but I've yet to hear of an improvement on 200 mcf/day from Corella-11 and its been on production for 18 months. Supposedly optimum rates can take 1-2 years.

Commerical is 300 mcf/day

http://www.aer.com.au/announcements/2008/1031/00898156.pdf


----------



## CapnBirdseye

woltage said:


> According to Metgasco, rates are supposed to improve with de-watering but I've yet to hear of an improvement on 200 mcf/day from Corella-11 and its been on production for 18 months. Supposedly optimum rates can take 1-2 years.
> 
> Commerical is 300 mcf/day
> 
> http://www.aer.com.au/announcements/2008/1031/00898156.pdf




So based on this info, the results from this well are mediocre.  The only potential upside is increased flow with either time or dewatering.

Not a failure, but not a complete success.  

This was released to market pretty quickly.  I'm not sure how flow rates are expected to increase over time.  Is it linear, exponential (increases not flows) or other?

There was also no mention of the amount of water removed, if any.  Surely this is an economic consideration also.

Looks like I have lots to learn...


----------



## Datsun Disguise

johannlo said:


> I'm naturally inclined towards paranoia  and I can find no other explanation for this behaviour except for the market behaving completely irrationally. Occam's razor and all that.....
> 
> something is afoot that us ordinary retail investors are not aware of.




Putting on the tin foil hat for a moment...

Volume is approaching 900k today, and yet sp has moved little and units offered for sale have only reduced by 50k from this morning. Maybe due to a limited understanding of what the announcement means - ie those wise to it are selling steadily to the demand? Sounds unlikely, the sellers would be a pretty well coordinated and disciplined bunch to achieve that - poor news is usually accompanied by a stampede as sellers try to exit at the highest price possible.

So if it isn't a well connected bunch of in the know sellers, it could only be a single seller drip feeding into the market - must have accumulated at low prices earlier this year to be able to do it....

tin foil hat off - carry on.


----------



## johannlo

I'm only an amateur but a v interesting analysis on HC offering a counterpoint to woltage (who incidentally put his negative analysis on HC as well lol)

(http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=895154&msgid=5091649)

In a nutshell: 
- purpose of well is to determine boundaries of coal seams. Not overall production from PEL13.
- this boundary is already producing gas (non commercial) without watering and associated long lag time to production / environmental issues. 
- So this test well is more to prove viability of low cost CSG production in PEL13 area not so much from this well itself or specific location. 

Food for thought for those thinking to jump ship. 

I'm still a miffed though at the capping that other posters have pointed out lol.

Not trying to say anyone's right or wrong, just interesting to read others analysis.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

A little calm has come to MEL which can only be a good thing.  My imaginary friend has even taken a break.

One for this patient I think.  Time so sit back and see bigger picture emerge.  Of course, trading is about seeing the bigger pcture before its all clear.


----------



## Sean K

God knows what they'll eventually pull up, but still pretty solid on the chart. That resistance zone formed up even more now after the failure on the break through 60. I added more then expecting a decent follow through. Disappointing considering the market has continued higher and higher. More spec money _should_ have flowed back in here imo. As long as the uptrend line holds I'm happy.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Nice choice of upper bound.  Ignoring the spike as you have makes this one look like it's ready for a good breakout.  Upwards hopefully.

I do think this is too closely watched to let the technicals be overly significant.  The management seem to be a canny lot, announcements seem to be well timed.


----------



## stock nub

Speculative buy in the Sunday Times based on in being undervalued on a peer basis. However we already know that from the great work of all on this thread.  Any press is good press IMO and this places MEL in the spotlight for some more speculative money to flow in.


----------



## Sean K

Hopeully this is a surprsie to the upside to keep them ticking along.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....

*Drilling commenced on Riflebird-E15 CSG Exploration Well*

Metgasco (ASX:MEL) advises that the drilling of the coal seam gas (CSG) exploration well Riflebird-E15 commenced on Sunday 14th June 2009. This well is expected to take approximately one week to complete and the rig is currently drilling ahead.

Riflebird-E15 is a vertical well designed to evaluate the production performance of the Walloon coal measures at this location. This well is planned to be the vertical offtake well for a future horizontal pilot production well to be drilled later in this calendar year.

The well will be drilled to a proposed total depth of 750 meters. Riflebird-E15 is located at South Casino in PEL 16.


----------



## Datsun Disguise

I reckon this is what the market has been waiting for 2p & 3P reserves don't mean anything unless your have feasible gas flows coming ou of them. As I undertand it that has not yet been established. 

If Riflebird comes up with the goods then I would expect we would see a re-rating - to what extent that happens (ie based on other CSG 2P / 3P valuations) only time will tell - don't have a view on the likely response as I haven't done my homework on this one - sorry.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

I've said it before and I'll say it again

The real action will come when a major looks to acquire cheap reserves, say the cheapest 2P and 3P reserves listed on the ASX for their LNG operations


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Seems to be a bit of action in the CSG world...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=449715#post449715

Updated the CSM thread instread of posting here..

Young Trader, i think your prophecies are closer to being fulfilled...


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Hey Kenna is that trend line/formation still intact after todays dump?

Wish I could fast forrward 6months to see which CSG companies are still around and what their respective share prices are


----------



## Sean K

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Kenna is that trend line/formation still intact after todays dump?
> 
> Wish I could fast forrward 6months to see which CSG companies are still around and what their respective share prices are



At the moment looks pretty ordinary, but has bounced off lows. Some people want to buy it.

Will be intersting to see how it finishes.

Really, couldn't expect anything else in the environment. The fear scale is off the planet now and punters are bailing no matter what. Could be another capitulation in the works. Will just make this cheaper in the LONG run imo. But for those needing to conserve capital, being on a fence might look pretty attractive.


----------



## bonkerrs

kennas said:


> At the moment looks pretty ordinary, but has bounced off lows. Some people want to buy it.
> 
> Will be intersting to see how it finishes.
> 
> Really, couldn't expect anything else in the environment. The fear scale is off the planet now and punters are bailing no matter what. Could be another capitulation in the works. Will just make this cheaper in the LONG run imo. But for those needing to conserve capital, being on a fence might look pretty attractive.




I guess most shares would have a similar looking chart pattern for today. I know all but 1 in my watchlist would


----------



## bowman

I think it's the instos doing most of the damage today. They're busy dumping WCL as well.

Funny how they seem to accumulate quietly but become conspicuous when they offload.  :


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

I have added 100K to my holdings but its a trading holding in addition to my much larger core holding

With results from RifleBird due soon after interesecting the coals, Wyan1 confiriming the extension of the CSG/Coal resource to the west and Kingfisher about to begin drilling soon there's just too much activity for me to ignore

should see a rebound by end of the month towards 60c again


----------



## Nero64

> I have added 100K to my holdings but its a trading holding in addition to my much larger core holding




$100,000 or 100,000 shares. 

Assuming you bought at 50c a share averaged that is $50 000.  

And you're saying you have a larger core holding?

I would have to say MEL has potential, but what would happen if the CSG is beaten to the punch by straight LNG and the QLD and NSW governments turn cold on CSG as an energy source. 

MEL is NSW based. Straight away it is at a disadvantage to it's QLD peers, which are attracting most of the big investment.


----------



## Datsun Disguise

Peter Power (Director) has cnoverted 1.48m options at an ex price of 29c - about 450k worth- now lets see if the corresponding disposal of 1.48m shares at 50c for the 300k profit appears.....

Lets hope this is a strategic buy rather than a tactical one....

Still holding but watching closely.


----------



## Dangerous

Nero64 said:


> $100,000 or 100,000 shares.
> 
> Assuming you bought at 50c a share averaged that is $50 000.
> 
> And you're saying you have a larger core holding?
> 
> I would have to say MEL has potential, but what would happen if the CSG is beaten to the punch by straight LNG and the QLD and NSW governments turn cold on CSG as an energy source.
> 
> MEL is NSW based. Straight away it is at a disadvantage to it's QLD peers, which are attracting most of the big investment.




It is at an advantage to its QLD peers - CSG to LNG is not proven and still faces signifcant obstacles.  NSW has a pending electricity crisis and CSG use in gas fired power stations is tried and tested...  

Would like to know more on their conventional assets


----------



## Datsun Disguise

Datsun Disguise said:


> Peter Power (Director) has cnoverted 1.48m options at an ex price of 29c - about 450k worth- now lets see if the corresponding disposal of 1.48m shares at 50c for the 300k profit appears.....
> 
> Lets hope this is a strategic buy rather than a tactical one....
> 
> Still holding but watching closely.




Another 3B out - this one is for the exercise of 10m  oppies at 29c. Wonder whoese name will be on the 3Y. Again - hopefully these don't find their way into the sell column too soon... That is $2.9m of someone cash laid on the line - demonstrates some confidence that 29c won't be tested..


----------



## Mad Mel

Dangerous said:


> NSW has a pending electricity crisis and CSG use in gas fired power stations is tried and tested...




The problem as I see it is that MEL does not have a means of getting gas to the major NSW markets.  They have a plan to get it to SE Qld, but putting a pipeline from their tenements into a transmission system feeding Sydney would be a tall order.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Out with the old and in with the new

Looks like a changing of the guard is happening at the moment and its not a coincidence that its happening on the last day of the financial year

Good to see that the price agreed upon between the sellers and buyers for XT's or corssings is 45-46c this should make for a nice solid base going forward


and for all those who only see the value in Qld CSG I will remind them of two things, 1 ESG and the easiest way for ESG with a mkt cap of over $700M to double its current reserves is to take out MEL which has a mkt cap of $80m or 1/9th that of ESG's

2. AGL did buy MPO/AJL's Gloucester permits for around $2 2P or $1 of 3P reserves and I've crunched the math on what that would equate to for MEL, it was like $4+ a share from memory


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Well there we go have a read of the below 

"The consideration being paid to Gastar equates to $0.66 per GJ of current 3P reserves. Santos will pay a further $20 million to Gastar if ESG meets certain reserve targets by 31 December 2009.
Santos’ acquisition of a 19.99% interest in ESG represents a strategic investment that will align the interests of the respective joint venture partners. Santos will pay $176 million1 for the interest, equating to a price of $1.00 per ESG share. Santos has agreed to make an additional payment to Hillgrove in the event that any party completes the acquisition of a beneficial interest of more than 50% in ESG at a price in excess of $1.00 per share within 18 months.

The consideration being paid to Gastar equates to $0.66 per GJ of current 3P reserves. Santos will pay a further $20 million to Gastar if ESG meets certain reserve targets by 31 December 2009.
Santos’ acquisition of a 19.99% interest in ESG represents a strategic investment that will align the interests of the respective joint venture partners. Santos will pay $176 million1 for the interest, equating to a price of $1.00 per ESG share. Santos has agreed to make an additional payment to Hillgrove in the event that any party completes the acquisition of a beneficial interest of more than 50% in ESG at a price in excess of $1.00 per share within 18 months."



Well once and for all we now have a clear indication that NSW 3P is worth at least 65c a GJ

MEL's 1550 PJ's NET 3P Reserves at 65c are worth over $1Billion Dollars = $5.60 a share

Sooner or later the market is going to have to wake up to this

With all the mid tier players going there are very few under $100M Mkt Cap, MEL amazingly with the largest NSW Reserves sits at around $80m 

D-Day is coming


----------



## Sean K

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Well once and for all we now have a clear indication that NSW 3P is worth at least 65c a GJ
> 
> MEL's 1550 PJ's NET 3P Reserves at 65c are worth over $1Billion Dollars = $5.60 a share
> 
> Sooner or later the market is going to have to wake up to this
> 
> With all the mid tier players going there are very few under $100M Mkt Cap, MEL amazingly with the largest NSW Reserves sits at around $80m
> 
> D-Day is coming



Why is it undervalued YT?

Location?
Management?
Bad website?
Smelly breath?
Silly name?

I don't buy the 'under the radar' deduction. Must be _some_ reason...



Like you, I'm holding quite a few now. I'm thinking smelly breath though....


----------



## JTLP

Interesting question...

Will this now lead to the rise of MEL? Or will it have a smashing day and then get brought back to earth with the friday sell off/sell off of hype?

Should be a very intriguing day tomorrow...


----------



## Sean K

JTLP said:


> Interesting question...
> 
> Will this now lead to the rise of MEL? Or will it have a smashing day and then get brought back to earth with the friday sell off/sell off of hype?
> 
> Should be a very intriguing day tomorrow...



It'll probably move with the market tomorrow. The US is being given a right royal how's your father at the moment.


----------



## Sean K

Directors stealing options at 29c and selling on market at 45c. 

How do you get one of these jobs?


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Nice, $170k in the bank, and 1.9m shares for, well seemingly nothing.  Nice work if you can get it I guess.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

I am happy with Directors paying 29c for shares via option exercise

Its great when you align the interest of directors with shareholders and imo the best way to do this is by directors having a good stake in the company, that way they are motivated by personal greed to get the share price up which is good for us 

Kenna maybe call the company and tell them to get some breath mints or something?  :

Seriously though this company has no f$%king idea how to promote themselves or get institutional support, 

The old adage, great assets are nothing without great management

A takeover is the only way to rectify the mis-match in pricing here


----------



## Datsun Disguise

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I am happy with Directors paying 29c for shares via option exercise
> 
> Its great when you align the interest of directors with shareholders and imo the best way to do this is by directors having a good stake in the company, that way they are motivated by personal greed to get the share price up which is good for us





As long as they hang on to them and don't go for the cash grab YT!  After the STO/ESG/HGO news I'd say they'll be hanging to see if they can get a few more cents for 'em.

This is just speculation, but Geraldine(?) converted $3m worth, is she now looking to sell down $3m worth to pay back her short term loan taken out to pay for them in the first place???


----------



## gaps

Drilling commenced on Corella–E17 CSG Exploration Well

i'm reading up more on this company and came upon this. may i ask the seasoned energy stocks followers where i can get a gd source of information to understand more about these energy plays? i'm a newbie wanting to learn more, but hope that you guys can guide me along. thanks heaps!


----------



## Dukey

gaps said:


> Drilling commenced on Corella–E17 CSG Exploration Well
> 
> i'm reading up more on this company and came upon this. may i ask the seasoned energy stocks followers where i can get a gd source of information to understand more about these energy plays? i'm a newbie wanting to learn more, but hope that you guys can guide me along. thanks heaps!




Gaps - have a look at the CSM thread - link below - which has some good general posts, esp early on, and company comparisons. Other threads worth looking at are QGC and PES threads to see how the benchmark Co's perform(ed). - Both have been taken over by BG and no longer listed - but they are still the benchmark against which to compare all others IMO. (best coals and flow rates).

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=458370&posted=1#post458370

Many of the CSG companies put out regular presentations. MEL and BOW seem to put out good ones with glossary etc.  Download a few of these from various companies - to get a feel for what's important.  Beware some talk it up more than others. 
Get them from the Company websites, asx site, comsec. etc.

Folks in general might also find this attachment interesting/useful .... found it on the web a while back - havn't even got to read it myself.
...actually - how about - someone summarize it and get the report back to me by 5pm sharp tomorrow !

ta-berry-mush and good luck -
-E


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Operations update for MEL today.

This is of interest.



> A short term production test was conducted immediately after reaching TD with free gas flows of 30,000 mcf/day recorded without pumping.




30,000mcf?  Is commercial just 300mcf?  If so, this is a great result.  I notice the market hasn't responsed to this, so am I wrong?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

CapnBirdseye said:


> Operations update for MEL today.
> 
> This is of interest.
> 
> 
> 
> 30,000mcf?  Is commercial just 300mcf?  If so, this is a great result.  I notice the market hasn't responsed to this, so am I wrong?






thats 3Billion standard cubic feet a day, no way thats possible

I mcf = 1000 cubic feet


http://platinumenergygroup.com/plant/energyconversionfactor.aspx


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Check my maths.  I dont think we are in to billions.


30,000 x 1000 = 30,000,000 cf/d

you are right 1000cf = 1mcf.


----------



## gaps

why is the sp responding to this news in this manner? i thought 400mcf per day is what commercial flow rates are being sought after. wouldnt this news be positive? is there any more clarification on this? thanks


----------



## gaps

bahhh they got the ann wrong!!! ...

The reference in the announcement earlier today to free gas flows of 30,000 mcf/day recorded without pumping in respect of Corella-E17 should read “30,000 scf/day”


----------



## CapnBirdseye

gaps said:


> bahhh they got the ann wrong!!! ...
> 
> The reference in the announcement earlier today to free gas flows of 30,000 mcf/day recorded without pumping in respect of Corella-E17 should read “30,000 scf/day”




And here's me sitting with 300,000 extra units.  Doh.

Ok, maybe not.  But its a pretty poor show really getting a price sensitive announcement so wrong.

30,000 scf/day.  Not too impressive really.  Hope it improves 10 fold with dewatering.


----------



## johannlo

Market thinks its a poor showing too.... what a hammering. 

I've been v bad with my CSG picks instead of looking at reserves maybe should have focued on other things (location, infrastructure, management, ease of extraction etc.) as out of MEL, WCL, ESG and BOW guess which two I picked... who would know the ones with the biggest upside would be languishing whilst ESG and BOW power on.

Still who knows whats ahead in the medium-long term. The gas is still in the ground...


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Planned Forward Work Program Next Quarter

• Drilling of Kingfisher-E1 conventional well;
"Conventional exploration program commenced with Metgasco’s first deep conventional well – Kingfisher-E1 is to be drilled next quarter. Original gas in place (OGIP) in the Kingfisher field is interpreted to be *82 Bcf (PMean) and 831 Bcf (P10)."

82-831 BCF at 66c/BCF = $55m-$550m = 30c to $3 a share MEL*

So its clear to see that MEL's first deep conventional well could be a company changer!


•Preparation for the drilling of the new generation coal seam gas pilot wells;

•Preparation for reserve development drilling to further expand the Company’s reserve base; and

•Continued progress on approvals for Lions Way Pipeline and Richmond Valley Power Station.
This is what I believe will put us on the takeover radar for Qld LNG operators


----------



## jancha

Anyone still on board with this one? Some rather large sells today. In fact it seems all of the CSG companies have taken a bit of a drop. Any thoughts on why?


----------



## CapnBirdseye

My guess is that the slow flow of information of late has led to a slow fall in SP.  This has taken the SP below a technical level of about 0.445 (no chart, from memory).

This most likely triggered a good few stops and caused the blip down to 0.41.

Just my take on today's price action.


----------



## ands

MEL and WCL have received nothing favourable from this market rally. Just hope it holds when/if the correction begins...


----------



## Cloud9

MEL on the move today with larger volume and good price increase

v large buyer came on at 46.5c.



been waiting patiently for the break for a month


----------



## Sean K

Cloud9 said:


> MEL on the move today with larger volume and good price increase
> 
> v large buyer came on at 46.5c.
> 
> been waiting patiently for the break for a month



Yes, interesting move. Nice change of direction, for the very short term. Lets hope she can follow through.


----------



## stock nub

kennas said:


> Yes, interesting move. Nice change of direction, for the very short term. Lets hope she can follow through.




Kennas does the large-ish volume of yesterday and today add credibility to the change of direction from the downtrend? Without a few more days of large-ish volume would it be premature to call a trend reversal? It was a substantial rise yesterday of nearly 14%. Today seems to be holding well and again has comparatively substantial volume. I'm a nooob at charts so any help much appreciated

Cheers 
ps. nice photos from Mexico, was there last December, loved it ! Haha did you have a night out at the blue parrot? Brings back memories of a funny night out there for me!


----------



## Sean K

Yes, large volume should accompany a breakout. No follow through yesterday but not too bad. MEL has had the tendancy to spike and back off rather quickly as is clear on the chart. Just want to see some higher lows and highs now confirm a change of direction.


----------



## TheAbyss

Volume spike (highest daily volume on record already, 4.6m units traded today so far) and approx 30% sp lift. No announcement other than Kingfisher update and Fin report today whi9ch didn't expand on anything already known.

Any ideas? Happy to be holding.


----------



## skc

TheAbyss said:


> Volume spike (highest daily volume on record already, 4.6m units traded today so far) and approx 30% sp lift. No announcement other than Kingfisher update and Fin report today whi9ch didn't expand on anything already known.
> 
> Any ideas? Happy to be holding.




Was just about to ask the same question. The spike 3/4 days ago was the leak, and now it's spreading.

With price moves like this it has to be takeover or some huge find...


----------



## CapnBirdseye

I sold out at 12pm to finance another trade.  Bugger. Not a happy Capn I can tell ya.  Oh well, well done to the rest of ya.


----------



## awg

apparently features in this mornings ASCI ( Australian Small Cap Investigator) newsletter.

They featured VMG recently and it surged for the day, then fell back, but has since climbed over the one day surge.

I believe this newsletter has many subscribers and a good hit rate
( no affiliation, not a subscriber)

I hold MEL and VMG, so lets just say I am pleased


----------



## skc

CapnBirdseye said:


> I sold out at 12pm to finance another trade.  Bugger. Not a happy Capn I can tell ya.  Oh well, well done to the rest of ya.




That would suk big time. But **** happens. I almost hit sell yesterday. I will probably sell half by this afternoon and wait for a retracement.


----------



## Kuri

TheAbyss said:


> Volume spike (highest daily volume on record already, 4.6m units traded today so far) and approx 30% sp lift. No announcement other than Kingfisher update and Fin report today whi9ch didn't expand on anything already known.
> 
> Any ideas? Happy to be holding.




The Bull.com is a very popular website amongst traders and they have talked it up pretty well. It could be the article mentioned previously by awg but displayed on the Bull. Definately has to be the reason for the spike.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

been a long time coming

almost lost faith in it, well not lost faith just was getting bored

glad  I stuck around

volume frenzy surely is due to more than just some newsletter?


----------



## awg

The buyers just keep taking out the ask, even when a spread opens, so someone wants them...............


----------



## jonojpsg

Yep, in todays release of ASCI and definitely would be related directly to that IMO after VMG pattern.  See also CTP which was rated a HIGHLY spec buy.


----------



## Sean K

Jimminy cricket! 

One day I'm down several %, the next up several %. 

Yes, LN, about time!!

Unusual run and sure to get a ticket.


----------



## bonkerrs

For me... not super happy yet, bought in at $0.64... starting to get a little happy! What a nice surge today, up 31% from yesterday's close so far.


----------



## jancha

bonkerrs said:


> For me... not super happy yet, bought in at $0.64... starting to get a little happy! What a nice surge today, up 31% from yesterday's close so far.




I had 50k at a base cost of 44.5cents. Got sick of holding them & off loaded last week at the same price. Yep & the ones i bought after i sold namely ESG took a dive.


----------



## Dangerous

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> been a long time coming
> 
> almost lost faith in it, well not lost faith just was getting bored
> 
> glad  I stuck around
> 
> volume frenzy surely is due to more than just some newsletter?




I never lost faith... been holding since rights issue at 40c, sold out of some at 56c a few months ago and have been buying back in between 46 and 49.

I had a feeling ASI were going to recommend it as they said last week that they were going to tip two more LNG sector stocks in next newsletter.

This was HGO all over again for me - not just massively undervalued, but also OBVIOUSLY undervalued.  I think this will keep going with the ASI recom weight behind it. If it cracks 70c should go through to a buck.  Mind you it would still only be a 170M co. at that price.

If you apply the HGO $/GJ 2P metric to it you come out at $3.62 a share. (remember ESG has infrastructure in place)

Happy holding


----------



## swm79

kennas said:


> Jimminy cricket!
> 
> One day I'm down several %, the next up several %.
> 
> Yes, LN, about time!!
> 
> Unusual run and sure to get a ticket.




NO way!!! Its happened AGAIN!!! i refer back to my post on the ECU thread (#13) where i was tossing up between ECU and MEL.... funnily enough, i chose neither and went with MEO  ........... 

MEO if you dont come off i'll hate you forever for this!


----------



## eddyeagle

Tipped in Australian Small Cap Investigator today and that would be responsible for the rise. That report has 20,000 or so subscribers and whatever he tips these days seems to jump immediately on the number of punters trying to get into the stock. The stocks always get a speeding ticket


----------



## Sean K

Will be interesting to see how she goes today.

The please explain left a teaser:

1. Is the Company aware of any information concerning it that has not been announced which, if known, could be an explanation for recent trading in the securities of the Company?

Metgasco is not aware of any specific reason for the recent increase in its share price. *The Company is currently engaged in discussions and negotiations with respect to a number of potential transactions*, none of which at this stage, have been concluded.



Could be anything really. Transactions? Like a new company car or something?

Certainly shouldn't account for the run, and would have just been punters jumping on that tip sheet report and the momentum.

Could only take a pluck at what happens today as far as a short term trade goes. My guess is a gap up and sell off as profit takers come in. 

Coming up to significant long term resistance too.


----------



## Skip1jz

My thoughts exactly on the response to the speeding ticket kennas, im not sure why they even bothered including that  Although I think it could only help to add to yesterdays momentum.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

We are so close to having our breakout on MEL so so close I can almost taste it

A positive update at Kingfisher and it will be off to the races for MEL

Also a presentation where the company itself says its worth $8.60 was brought to my attention


----------



## Gillie

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> We are so close to having our breakout on MEL so so close I can almost taste it
> 
> A positive update at Kingfisher and it will be off to the races for MEL
> 
> Also a presentation where the company itself says its worth $8.60 was brought to my attention




But this report is dated at 31/10/2008.... Something more recent would be useful.


----------



## Largesse

Was a pretty blatant ramp from an otherwise reputable poster.

I'll be honest, I expect alot more from YT than that.........


Not very impressive.


----------



## TheAbyss

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> We are so close to having our breakout on MEL so so close I can almost taste it
> 
> A positive update at Kingfisher and it will be off to the races for MEL
> 
> Also a presentation where the company itself says its worth $8.60 was brought to my attention




Irrespective of when the presentation was released the information is correct. 

The figures quoted were for a done deal so i don't see the issue as a precedent is a precedent.


----------



## TheAbyss

Largesse said:


> Was a pretty blatant ramp from an otherwise reputable poster.
> 
> I'll be honest, I expect alot more from YT than that.........
> 
> 
> Not very impressive.






Gillie said:


> But this report is dated at 31/10/2008.... Something more recent would be useful.




The latest figures confirm the 3p reserves quoted (link below) plus the BG/QGC deal has been done so no question of those figures either. Not sure what your concerns actually are?

I presume YT used the 2008 slide as the BG/QGC reserves valuation was quite a while ago now so not included in current slide packs etc? 


http://www.metgasco.com.au/files/761444.pdf


----------



## Dark1975

eddyeagle said:


> Tipped in Australian Small Cap Investigator today and that would be responsible for the rise. That report has 20,000 or so subscribers and whatever he tips these days seems to jump immediately on the number of punters trying to get into the stock. The stocks always get a speeding ticket




Agreed^^^^
Infact if you checked on the date 30/9/09 his two tips where MEL & CTP..very interesting *herd mentality*.Infact check the recommendations for the last 6months on his tips..with 15,000 subscribers the share movement on the day is always 20% min for the day.


----------



## eddyeagle

Dark1975 said:


> Agreed^^^^
> Infact if you checked on the date 30/9/09 his two tips where MEL & CTP..very interesting *herd mentality*.Infact check the recommendations for the last 6months on his tips..with 15,000 subscribers the share movement on the day is always 20% min for the day.





I had a look at the intraday chart for the day that report was released. The email hit my inbox at 12.32pm. By 12.36pm, Mel had jumped 26% in the space of 4 minutes. Ridiculous. But it had also jumped 17% in the half hour before the report was released that makes me think something is up - do certain people receive the report before others?


----------



## Dark1975

eddyeagle said:


> I had a look at the intraday chart for the day that report was released. The email hit my inbox at 12.32pm. By 12.36pm, Mel had jumped 26% in the space of 4 minutes. Ridiculous. But it had also jumped 17% in the half hour before the report was released that makes me think something is up - do certain people receive the report before others?




Well as far as i know speaking to a fellow trader the report was recieved at the same time as yourself.But thinking about it logically i'm sure some info gets leaked on the day of the announcement.But im blown away at the past tips,differently keeping my eye open to the report now.


----------



## outback

I guess it may be perceived as morally wrong to want to see the report the day before it's released 'ay.


----------



## Sean K

Bit of a pole and pennant forming up here. On a solid break up the target would be around the 80-85c mark I reckon.


----------



## Dukey

Thats a nice pick up kennas - hope it pans out! a few of us have been waiting patiently on this one for quite some time... given past performance It may just as well drop back to half mast, but I'll be more than happy to be convinced of the power of TA if MEL flies to a new level.

certainly seems to be a bit more heat in the sector in the past week or two.
ESG might be looking good short term too after a bit of a drop back to 90ish cents....
CSG boom take 2 perhaps??


----------



## Dangerous

PEL 16 and PEL 13 are surrounded by a large Arrow Energy tenement - PEL 445.  Arrows June 2009 quarterly stated:

_During the upcoming work program Arrow will concentrate efforts to understand the regional variability of coal seams within the basin, and seek to demonstrate commercially viable pilot production via its planned 3 well hydro-fracture pilot scheduled for commencement in the northern part of the basin next quarter_


----------



## skc

kennas said:


> Bit of a pole and pennant forming up here. On a solid break up the target would be around the 80-85c mark I reckon.




Well... that flag has turned into a pretty steep retracement, although the volume remains quite low. I wonder how many of those who bought on the news letter are still holding?

The 62% fib level may hold this guy up, but any upturn may have to fight that 60c level again which held the stock back multiple times in the last year.


----------



## fureien

argh i bought at 55c during the last jump before it plummetted to the 45c range. I was tempted to sell when it was 60c+ but that flag and pennant made me think it was gunna jump back up. argh now my +10% is -10% so annoying. i can hold and wait for it to recover again or sell and watch it recover -_-

you think if the dow and aud didnt drop when it hit the bottom of the pennant it would jumped back up?


----------



## Largesse

anything material happened with these guys lately?
i havent been watching closely but noticed that the price has dipped back to buyable levels again


----------



## stock nub

Largesse said:


> anything material happened with these guys lately?
> i havent been watching closely but noticed that the price has dipped back to buyable levels again




We have struck pay dirt captain!
 "The well produced at a rate of 900,000 scfd after a 4 hour test on a 32/64” choke." 

Apart from this good news a SPP is on the seas. Everyone (shareholders @ Fri 6 Nov) gets upto 15k worth @ 45c. 

If this well keeps up the performance they should get a decent uptake on the issue IMO.


----------



## bonkerrs

stock nub said:


> We have struck pay dirt captain!Apart from this good news a SPP is on the seas. Everyone (shareholders @ Fri 6 Nov) gets upto 15k worth @ 45c.
> 
> If this well keeps up the performance they should get a decent uptake on the issue IMO.




With the price of MEL today. Might be worth looking at the SPP more seriously! Any thoughts on the SPP?


----------



## Sean K

bonkerrs said:


> With the price of MEL today. Might be worth looking at the SPP more seriously! Any thoughts on the SPP?



Isn't the SPP at 45c?

Might depend on if you think the current spike will last or not....

Chart wise (not that the last one was worth a piece of rabbit cud), 60-70c is a MASSIVE resistance zone. If it breaks through, and respects as support, then it's on it's way.


----------



## SuperGlue

It has already touch 76c. 

Can't trade on IB, been capped.


If the gas found is really major, 
SANTOS should have bought METGASCO instead of EASTERNSTAR.


----------



## jancha

SuperGlue said:


> It has already touch 76c.
> 
> Can't trade on IB, been capped.
> 
> 
> If the gas found is really major,
> SANTOS should have bought METGASCO instead of EASTERNSTAR.




Dream on. Santos would have done their research & not have chosen willy nilly. Wait till ESG comes out with their upgrades.


----------



## bonkerrs

kennas said:


> Isn't the SPP at 45c?
> 
> Might depend on if you think the current spike will last or not....
> 
> Chart wise (not that the last one was worth a piece of rabbit cud), 60-70c is a MASSIVE resistance zone. If it breaks through, and respects as support, then it's on it's way.



Yep. 45c and this Thursday is the close date. Broke through 0.70c for a short period today. Sounds very promising with today's announcement!


----------



## Dukey

bonkerrs said:


> Yep. 45c and this Thursday is the close date. Broke through 0.70c for a short period today. Sounds very promising with today's announcement!




Timing is everything isn't it... or maybe patience.

I got stopped out in late October after holding MEL for maybe a year or more .. wasn't prepared to see it slip much under 60c again, and was starting to think they had no quality (flow rates) in the acreage.  As it is - this is conventional gas not CSG - but it's all $$$ just the same!

Oh well - thems the breaks I guess!!
- Good luck to all those still holding - the SPP should be a nice little earner for everyone.

Another lesson in patience for me 
-D


----------



## bonkerrs

Just wanted to get confirmation if I've got this right...

Record Date 06.11.2009
Close Date 03.12.2009

I had shares on and before 06.11.2009. I can sell my shares today and still be eligible for the SPP... right?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

After a long a wild ride I sold the bulk of my MEL yesterday 

While I think MEL has great LT fundamentals when compared to ESG the going has been frustratingly slow 

and besides I still get another $15k at 45c

Bonkers yes you are eligible its the record date you had to have shares at which is passed


----------



## skyQuake

bonkerrs said:


> Just wanted to get confirmation if I've got this right...
> 
> Record Date 06.11.2009
> Close Date 03.12.2009
> 
> I had shares on and before 06.11.2009. I can sell my shares today and still be eligible for the SPP... right?




Yes. But you had to own ur shares 3 days before the record date. (before the ex date)
In fact you could have sold on the 4th Nov and still be eligible (and be quite annoyed today)


----------



## bonkerrs

skyQuake said:


> Yes. But you had to own ur shares 3 days before the record date. (before the ex date)
> In fact you could have sold on the 4th Nov and still be eligible (and be quite annoyed today)



Had them for WAY more then 3 days before record day, too long!! 

Like YT, I'm going to offload my shares and get $15k at 45 ¢. Just have to find the form... hope I didn't hurl it when this share was frustrating the crap out of me


----------



## bonkerrs

skyQuake said:


> In fact you could have sold on the 4th Nov and still be eligible (and be quite annoyed today)




Couldn't edit my last post - has to be within 20 minutes of original post.

Anyway, just thinking about what you said about the 4th Nov... T+3 right?!

Will the MEL price start to drop because of the 45 ¢ SPP in a couple of days? I've got a sell order in at over 70 ¢ but I don't think it will reach that again.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

bonkerrs said:


> Couldn't edit my last post - has to be within 20 minutes of original post.
> 
> Anyway, just thinking about what you said about the 4th Nov... T+3 right?!
> 
> Will the MEL price start to drop because of the 45 ¢ SPP in a couple of days? I've got a sell order in at over 70 ¢ but I don't think it will reach that again.




Depends what the news is that's coming this week.  If it's good, which I expect it to be, then 0.70 will look very average.


----------



## Dangerous

jancha said:


> Dream on. Santos would have done their research & not have chosen willy nilly. Wait till ESG comes out with their upgrades.




And what do you propose STO would do with ESG gas?... ESG is a domestic gas model.  STO do not own power stations nor are they chasing domestic supply contracts.  As i cannot see any synergies with the rest of the STO portfolio or growth plans, my view is they bought ESG to gain insight into the the drilling technology being used in Narrabri.

I have been a big fan of MEL and exercised a great deal of patience (for a change) for a long time purely for the fact that the $/GJ metric shows they are significantly undervalued.  I figured that one day a broker or big buyer would also see this and there would be significant growth in the share price.  This happened when  Australian Small -Cap Investigator (the Port Phillip Publishing Company publication) recommended it.

My view now is that they need to prove up reserves to build a bigger power station.  I think Lions Way project is a dud.  Pipeline generally costs $36,000/km/inch so this project is way to expensive for their current reserve basis and flow rates.  No one will provide finance guarenteed by 3P reserves.  Financing needs 1P and 2 reserves for underwriting.

MEL prior to this week was priced for a 30MW power station (my calcs based on $50MWh).  What Kingfisher provides is the possibility of a far bigger powerstation.  The greatest benefit will come from the fact that if this does prove to be a decent conventional find flowing say 20MMscfd, the reduction in footprint and ensuing savings in gathering system networks and water disposal will make this Company an absolute winner.

... it does not like 70c though i think we are up to an "umpteenth top" (as opposed to a double top)


----------



## condog

Im watching this closely.....huge upside potential....existing value....but will require huge farm ins to make viable....

I agree they need significantly more gas to make viable and ensure they can pay off power station...

They have announced they expect significant upgrades soon....Im almost ready to purchase just want a fraction more evidence of significantly larger 1P and 2P


----------



## jancha

Dangerous said:


> And what do you propose STO would do with ESG gas?... ESG is a domestic gas model.  STO do not own power stations nor are they chasing domestic supply contracts.  As i cannot see any synergies with the rest of the STO portfolio or growth plans, my view is they bought ESG to gain insight into the the drilling technology being used in Narrabri.
> 
> DO you really think STO would go to that length just to gain insight into their drilling technology? Expensive lessons. Would have been cheaper to go with MEL if thats the case.


----------



## Dangerous

jancha;515471

DO you really think STO would go to that length just to gain insight into their drilling technology? Expensive lessons. Would have been cheaper to go with MEL if thats the case.[/QUOTE said:
			
		

> ESG are using completely different drilling technology to other CSG players and would have already spent considerable amounts on the multi-lateral well R&D.
> 
> You are right in that it is an expensive lesson, but not as expensive as the lesson they learned having missed out on QGC at $1.60 (admittedly to ACCC ruling).  AGL took up  stake and made $1B in two years.


----------



## condog

I dont know why either of you are bothered even discussing STO, its got legs on its own, just needs some more confirmed 1P.....all it needs is time, not STO


----------



## Mad Mel

Santos' farmin to ESG was simply the fourth move to shore up Gunnedah gas interests.   They farmed in with CRM, farmed in with Macquarie, and acquired Gunnedah Gas in an off-market transaction.   All those transactions occurred prior to their acquisition of ESG interest, and all are in the Gunnedah basin near ESG's tenements.  Eventually Santos will make clear what their plan is for that gas; probably domestic supply, or perhaps a Newcastle LNG facility.


----------



## Pivotonian

MEL up over 13% in a very short time today.

I would have thought at these levels we'd see some strong selling pressure from SPP participants, but doesn't seem to be the case


----------



## bonkerrs

Pivotonian said:


> MEL up over 13% in a very short time today.
> 
> I would have thought at these levels we'd see some strong selling pressure from SPP participants, but doesn't seem to be the case




Dam it! I sold right at the start of todays spike. Sold at $0.75 

Hopefully, my SPP will be approved!!


----------



## Pivotonian

bonkerrs said:


> Dam it! I sold right at the start of todays spike. Sold at $0.75
> 
> Hopefully, my SPP will be approved!!




Hit $0.83 a few minutes ago ...

I thought the SPP shares had already been allocated and were available for trading already - wrong?  If so, would help explain the lack of selling pressure ...


----------



## bonkerrs

Pivotonian said:


> Hit $0.83 a few minutes ago ...
> 
> I thought the SPP shares had already been allocated and were available for trading already - wrong?  If so, would help explain the lack of selling pressure ...




The date to apply is closed (03.12.2009). Dispatch date is 10.12.2009 so I guess after that the selling pressure will be felt in the share price.

Anyone know when the SPP will be registered and ready for trading? How long after the dispatch date?


----------



## xolstis

SPP closed yesterday, allocation on the 10th, I believe the share registry does not permit selling atm as their arrangement with e*trade has run into some glitch. So probably needs a couple more days after to transfer to a from issuer to broker before SPP selling starts.


----------



## xolstis

Interesting how the sp rocketed up after the closure of SPP applications. And this is without any further updates to the ann on their large find yet.


----------



## chiraag

On the Share Purchase Plan Terms & Conditions document, the allotment date is Thursday 10th December and the first trading date will be Friday 11th December - although it says that says that shares will be able to be traded on the ASX on or around this date


----------



## xolstis

Hmm surge in volume and SP at the end of day..... and the clarification statement from the initial ann that they promised by late this week hasn't occurred.....


----------



## Dangerous

It will be a nervous wait between now and Thursday.  

The last annual report said there were 4,000 shareholders.  Assuming each of these applied for $15K that would total $60M.  With max set at $25M that would mean scale back to aobut 13,000 shares max per person.

You would expect the offer to be substantially oversubribed.  I am hoping to end up with 20,000 despite applying for 33,000.  Even this could be optimistic.... 

$25M in the bank though will be a good result for a company that only had a cap of $75M a few weeks ago.


----------



## kingcarmleo

Corella CSG well being spudded, hopefully more news on KF next week. Should be a strong sell off when the SPP shares come online as people have almost doubled their money.


----------



## condog

Strong sell off indeed, especially given price increase of 17% on Friday simply because they are drilling......a bit premature


----------



## Pivotonian

Dammit. 

I decided to take a whole lot of profit off the table on Friday at 0.825, with the intention of getting back in an another week or so.  I couldn't see much reason for further upside in the very short term, and am expecting very strong selling pressure at the end of this week when the SPP shares come online, so 0.825 seemed a good price to cash in.

Now we're up another 11% inside half an hour today


----------



## SUNYA2006

Pivotonian said:


> Dammit.
> 
> I decided to take a whole lot of profit off the table on Friday at 0.825, with the intention of getting back in an another week or so.  I couldn't see much reason for further upside in the very short term, and am expecting very strong selling pressure at the end of this week when the SPP shares come online, so 0.825 seemed a good price to cash in.
> 
> Now we're up another 11% inside half an hour today




If some people want to buy at lower price on Thursday, maybe market will use this chance to push SP to a another higher position. It seems that $1 will be broken soon.


----------



## condog

SPP is 40% oversubsribed
They are going to cap it and do a scale back

Metgasco (ASX:MEL) advises that it has received strong support from shareholders for its Share Purchase Plan which closed on 3 December 2009.
The SPP has been oversubscribed by 44% with applications exceeding $36 million. As previously advised the maximum amount intended to be raised under the SPP is $25 million. Accordingly a scale back will be applied by the Company.
Allottment of New Shares will take place on Thursday 10 December 2009.


----------



## Pivotonian

SUNYA2006 said:


> If some people want to buy at lower price on Thursday, maybe market will use this chance to push SP to a another higher position. It seems that $1 will be broken soon.




Has now hit $1, less than two hours into the day's session.

Surely the market is getting a bit carried away with this ... ?


----------



## bonkerrs

Pivotonian said:


> Has now hit $1, less than two hours into the day's session.
> 
> Surely the market is getting a bit carried away with this ... ?




Sold on Friday for 0.75 and now the current price over 1.00, and I find out I most probably won't get all the SPP I applied for... banging my head x 1000!!


----------



## ands

Pivotonian said:


> Has now hit $1, less than two hours into the day's session.
> 
> Surely the market is getting a bit carried away with this ... ?




Compare it to other CSG and it still undervalued, not to forget the potential of further near term upgrades in their reserves. Takeover potential is also there. This run has only just begun...


----------



## eddyeagle

Sold out of Metgasco today for a handy profit after buying in September and will be looking to get back in sometime after the SPP stock goes live. Expecting a fair bit of profit taking at these levels!


----------



## imajica

I sold out yesterday as well at 94 cents. It might run a little bit more over the next couple of days or there might be downward pressure caused by people's perceptions about the imminent sell-off on Friday. All of those shares will be in 100% profit and most people will sell for the quick money. After the bottom has been reached early next week I will be loading up and holding for the long term.


----------



## Dangerous

eddyeagle said:


> Sold out of Metgasco today for a handy profit after buying in September and will be looking to get back in sometime after the SPP stock goes live. Expecting a fair bit of profit taking at these levels!




Agreed, but....

Has anyone considered that we have not heard further info on KF well because they are saving it for when SPP allocations start trading. 

I'm going to take the punt that we will see a really positive announcement to coincide with the first day of trading.


----------



## SuperGlue

Dangerous said:


> Agreed, but....
> 
> Has anyone considered that we have not heard further info on KF well because they are saving it for when SPP allocations start trading.
> 
> I'm going to take the punt that we will see a really positive announcement to coincide with the first day of trading.




I concur with you.


Looking through MEL's reports.

"Previously unknown mid-basin high has been identified by Metgasco.

Large number of leads & prospects identified with upside drilling potential of 5 TCF.

Now commencing consolidated Prospects & Leads program for PEL's 16, 13, 426

Convential gas complements CSG field economics"

----------------------

Orara E1 & Wyan E1 - no water after drilling

Kingfisher - no obvious water bearing sands. "Further gas zones are likely to be present at 	     greater depth given evidence of gas at the base of the well."

Riflebird-E14  - "A gas water contact was not observed by RB14 indicating the potential for 		  further gas below 1269 metres."

Corella - 70 bpd of water.


So Where's the water & what's further below........


Any oil  & gas expert willing to interpret the above. 

Looks very promising from the report & from my pretty ordinary opinion.


----------



## IMSancho

I too was tempted to take the profits yesterday, but I'm sure as soon as I'd sell to wait for the SPP to hit the market, the announcement quantifying the find from last week would hit and I'd miss out on the next big jump. 

So in my case I've decided to hold and wait it out, especially now that we are 8 days after the announcement that "The company will review the current resource estimate for the Kingfisher field in the coming *week* and expects that this will significantly increase"


----------



## bonkerrs

Going off an earlier post. Anyone confirm if we're only getting 60% of our subscription for the SPP?


----------



## imajica

with the dow tanking last night, methinks today could be a good time to buy back into MEL. or maybe tomorrow, whichever looks more tempting. timing is everything!!!!


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Many will today as a last chance buying opportunity.  I wouldn't be suprised to see MEL holding up quite well today.  There will be the fear in peoples minds that they have to beat the announcement.

I'm certain to be proved wrong now I have said this.


----------



## Pivotonian

imajica said:


> with the dow tanking last night, methinks today could be a good time to buy back into MEL. or maybe tomorrow, whichever looks more tempting. timing is everything!!!!




Gutsy move, to buy in the day before the SPP shares come online ...

I still have a few MEL shares and therefore exposure to the upside (although not as much as I would like), so I'm thinking I might wait it out until Friday ...


----------



## xolstis

Announcement is out... P90 and P50 (conservative and mid) estimates have just about doubled for KF and P10 (optimistic) estimates have quadrapled =D

P90 (12bcf) ->  (24bcf)
P50 (37bcf) -> (77bcf)
P10 (70bcf) -> (284bcf)

I have no idea what the market previously factored in though.


----------



## xolstis

bonkerrs said:


> Going off an earlier post. Anyone confirm if we're only getting 60% of our subscription for the SPP?




Yes it's been oversubscribed 44%. The way I see it, it will be scaled back by:

Amount allocated = amount applied for /1.44


----------



## Pivotonian

xolstis said:


> Announcement is out... P90 and P50 (conservative and mid) estimates have just about doubled for KF and P10 (optimistic) estimates have quadrapled =D
> 
> P90 (12bcf) ->  (24bcf)
> P50 (37bcf) -> (77bcf)
> P10 (70bcf) -> (284bcf)
> 
> I have no idea what the market previously factored in though.




... yet the SP is down ~2.5%, along with the rest of the market.

No change to my position - sit tight in anticipation of some serious profit taking on Friday.


----------



## bonkerrs

I'm with Comsec.

Does anyone know if the SPP allotment will appear in the 'My Portfolio' screen when it is cleared? Should be today right... 10th Dec is dispatch date?


----------



## dandyjac

bonkerrs said:


> I'm with Comsec.
> 
> Does anyone know if the SPP allotment will appear in the 'My Portfolio' screen when it is cleared? Should be today right... 10th Dec is dispatch date?[/QUOTE
> 
> You should see it in your portfolio tomorrow. I'm sure there computers update after midnight, thats what has happen to mine in the past


----------



## questionall_42

Re: MEL SPP - got my shares alloted and available to trade about 12pm today on e-trade.  Applied for 22,222 shares ($10k) but got 15,446 shares. 
SP hasn't been hit hard given the allotment, currently down 4.5c to 73.5c.


----------



## Pivotonian

questionall_42 said:


> Re: MEL SPP - got my shares alloted and available to trade about 12pm today on e-trade.  Applied for 22,222 shares ($10k) but got 15,446 shares.
> SP hasn't been hit hard given the allotment, currently down 4.5c to 73.5c.




Hang on, they're not supposed to be available for trade until tomorrow.  You can trade them today?

Can anyone else already trade their allotment?


----------



## questionall_42

Pivotonian said:


> Hang on, they're not supposed to be available for trade until tomorrow.  You can trade them today?
> 
> Can anyone else already trade their allotment?




I always thought allotment was 10 Dec (today - this was stated in the last announcment), they appear as part of my portfolio, and although I haven't traded them, they are available for trade.


----------



## xolstis

Pivotonian said:


> Hang on, they're not supposed to be available for trade until tomorrow.  You can trade them today?
> 
> Can anyone else already trade their allotment?




I am with Bell direct and my SPP shares showed up at about noonish as well. Quite surprising as I normally have to fill in a form to get SPP allocations changed from being issuer sponsored shares to broker sponsored ones. That might explain the increased sell pressure this afternoon.

Allocations got scaled back by 1/1.44 as mentioned before.


----------



## Dangerous

F*** you ASI!

Australian Small-cap Investigator is the newsletter that recommended this back in September.  They are associated with Diggers & Drillers and the Daily Reckoning.  

They covered this stock for 12 weeks saying how great it was and then issued newsletter last week saying put a trailing stop on at 73c.  Well guess what, today it got triggered.  



So what do we do now?  Hold on while it gets dumped tomorrow?  Or just post every single newsletter of theirs on here (it is paid subscription) until my sub runs out?


----------



## Pivotonian

Dangerous said:


> F*** you ASI!
> 
> Australian Small-cap Investigator is the newsletter that recommended this back in September.  They are associated with Diggers & Drillers and the Daily Reckoning.
> 
> They covered this stock for 12 weeks saying how great it was and then issued newsletter last week saying put a trailing stop on at 73c.  Well guess what, today it got triggered.
> 
> 
> 
> So what do we do now?  Hold on while it gets dumped tomorrow?  Or just post every single newsletter of theirs on here (it is paid subscription) until my sub runs out?




Yeah, I saw that too.  Could be further downside for MEL tomorrow.

Do you think its strange that they'd set the trailing stop so high when there's a predictable and temporary reason for strong selling pressure?


----------



## Dangerous

I think it strange that through Daily Reckoning, Port Phillip Publishing write bearish articles criticizing the ethics of the Bernancke, yet also publish ASI

Coming from the archbiships of morality hey...


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Dangerous said:


> F*** you ASI!
> 
> Australian Small-cap Investigator is the newsletter that recommended this back in September.  They are associated with Diggers & Drillers and the Daily Reckoning.
> 
> They covered this stock for 12 weeks saying how great it was and then issued newsletter last week saying put a trailing stop on at 73c.  Well guess what, today it got triggered.
> 
> 
> 
> So what do we do now?  Hold on while it gets dumped tomorrow?  Or just post every single newsletter of theirs on here (it is paid subscription) until my sub runs out?




Tick, another winner for ASI.  On paper anyhow.  Not a terrible place to put a stop to be honest.  

So who is here short term?  And you haven't exited yet?  

Ok, this for most is a longer term trade.  I don't like seeing dips in my running  profit, that pisses me off too.  But, MEL are well on the way to commercialisaton.  That's where the fun will happen imo. That and getting more reasonable flow rates, oh and more kingfisher results, oh and increased reserves, oh and possible condensate.   Hmm, lots of downside in the near future.


----------



## skyQuake

Dangerous said:


> F*** you ASI!
> 
> Australian Small-cap Investigator is the newsletter that recommended this back in September.  They are associated with Diggers & Drillers and the Daily Reckoning.
> 
> They covered this stock for 12 weeks saying how great it was and then issued newsletter last week saying put a trailing stop on at 73c.  Well guess what, today it got triggered.
> 
> 
> 
> So what do we do now?  Hold on while it gets dumped tomorrow?  Or just post every single newsletter of theirs on here (it is paid subscription) until my sub runs out?




Why so angry? If you followed the recommendation and loaded up at 46c (just 1c above SPP price) whats to worry about?
Also if you've read Monday's weekly update ASI moved the stop to 73c. You had Plenty of time today to get out when it was trading at the 73c area.
Today's arvo update was just a reminder to everyone who didn't place stops etc.


----------



## Wysiwyg

45c issue so hard to fathom why it would remain at anywhere near the spike price. Long or short term, no in-betweens like that ridiculous trailing stop level.


----------



## condog

Wysiwyg said:


> 45c issue so hard to fathom why it would remain at anywhere near the spike price. Long or short term, no in-betweens like that ridiculous trailing stop level.




Clearly weve seen this and my prediction come true today....some rationality and comon sense coming back into the market..... yes they have a LOAD of upside potential , but that spike was based on nothing.......  the significant results are expected very soon, but they could be significant either way....

This really seems like a very good stock, but imo at around 65c-70c possibly shooting up to hold recent levels if the significant updates come through and they are good......following that theres a few deals, JV,s or cap raisings need doing before we get to stupid....


----------



## Dangerous

skyQuake said:


> Why so angry? If you followed the recommendation and loaded up at 46c (just 1c above SPP price) whats to worry about?
> Also if you've read Monday's weekly update ASI moved the stop to 73c. You had Plenty of time today to get out when it was trading at the 73c area.
> Today's arvo update was just a reminder to everyone who didn't place stops etc.




Maybe I do appear irrational, and yes if i think it a good stock it does not matter what ASI say (i was in 40c right issue earlier in year, or late last year), but I do beg to differ.  It was more than a reminder they said "_MEL will no longer be covered". _

*1 December *Weekly Update said this,

_And quite frankly, yesterday's 68% increase price was just the beginning of the good news to come from this "Thin Air" stock. 

Back when I tipped it, I said you can expect a gain of 141% return on investment win six months. As of today, we've got a 65% return on investment. So from here I don't think it's too unreasonable to see the stock price double in the near term.  _

I am an avid Daily Reckoning reader and very disappointed with the MEL ramping given the high mighty opinions they taken on DR on a daily basis...  I guess I am as disappointed in them as I am angry.

Did anyone think the ELD recommendation in the last ASI could have been written by a grad?  I thought it appalling and will be interested to hear other's opinion.


----------



## eddyeagle

Dangerous said:


> F*** you ASI!
> 
> Australian Small-cap Investigator is the newsletter that recommended this back in September.  They are associated with Diggers & Drillers and the Daily Reckoning.
> 
> They covered this stock for 12 weeks saying how great it was and then issued newsletter last week saying put a trailing stop on at 73c.  Well guess what, today it got triggered.
> 
> 
> 
> So what do we do now?  Hold on while it gets dumped tomorrow?  Or just post every single newsletter of theirs on here (it is paid subscription) until my sub runs out?




Yeah i reckon he has lost the plot a bit with these stop losses being triggered. He is selling out of everything and not looking at the big picture! You'd expect weakness from this stock given the circumstances of the SPP, so i dont think it's an automatic reason to just sell up! Last week he was raving about how much more potential it had!


----------



## Nero64

> Or just post every single newsletter of theirs on here (it is paid subscription) until my sub runs out?




Yes please.  Do this after you send it to my email address 

I get the DK as well and all the other spam that comes with it. I used to read it everyday, but then grew tired of the same dribble and it is so long. The titles can be funny though.


----------



## eddyeagle

skyQuake said:


> Why so angry? If you followed the recommendation and loaded up at 46c (just 1c above SPP price) whats to worry about?
> Also if you've read Monday's weekly update ASI moved the stop to 73c. You had Plenty of time today to get out when it was trading at the 73c area.
> Today's arvo update was just a reminder to everyone who didn't place stops etc.




Did anyone actually get in at 46c from ASI's tip? By the time the newsletter hit my inbox, the stock was already in the 60s. I actually wrote to ASI and asked them WTF was going on and whether someone was leaking info! 

And yes, I thought the ELD recommendation was slightly odd. Almost as if they had run out of ideas. Wont be touching that one!


----------



## skc

If people are holding on for the longer term can I ask what / how they value the stock? e.g. $EV / 3P or something like that?

What does that valuation picture look like with the recent announcement?

On the chart I would say the current down leg could be wave 4, as long as $0.7 holds and doesn't fall below the original ASI spike... (sorry can't post my charts at the moment).


----------



## bonkerrs

Got my SPP, 70% of what I applied for. Over 1.8M traded aalready and it's only a couple of minutes into the trade day.


----------



## Pivotonian

Jumped back in this morning at .705 - was expecting a bit more selling pressure today and was hoping to get in around .66, but I think the SPP sell off has finished.  There seems to be plenty of buyers around mopping up whatever is left of the flippers.


----------



## imajica

I too expected a sell off to the mid 60's. Seeing as it has stabilised, I bought back in this morning. over 10 million shares traded and still hovering in the early 70's. sellers mopped up by eager buyers.


----------



## condog

Yeh I just bought in at 0.705 which is dearer then id hoped....none the less the significant announcments pending should see an easy profit if they are significant upgrades....


----------



## imajica

major interest in Mel's gas discovery


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/16/2773537.htm?site=northcoast


----------



## condog

Its a great start to have a willing local government and community prepared to back rather then hinder the project.....

Metgasco is banking on being able to reach Brisbane with it and will be actively exploring the entire basin down almost to Coffs Harbour to ensure enough supply to validate a pipeline.....  

Until then Id imagine their current power station will be the only viable option....  Although if the Govt is stupid enough to supply grants to domestically or commercially supply with a questionable long term supply quantity then more fool them......please do...

My money for the moment is oon power production & or very near by commercial use, possibly the abatoir or new industrial use near the airport.
It certainly would be viable for some company with high energy use to plonk themselves next to the airport and sign up for 20-30 year gas supplies.

Its not a bad prospect really with high unemployment in Casino (ready labour force), cheap housing, 2hrs to Brisbane, on the train line to sydney, next to an airport, 1/2 hour from Lismore.....  Any heavy energy user would have to see this as a very attractive prospect...  Certainly more economically viable then the high prices of western Sydney, or Melbourne and Brisbane with thier regular labour shortages...


----------



## RobVan

Does anyone know what the hell is going on with Metgasco shares..!? Why are they haemorrhaging so badly..!?

I just don't understand how MEL shares dived from $1.00 to $0.68 in like 2 days! Now they are drowning again, sitting at $0.62. This mroning they went as low as $0.60. I saw at least 1 shares sold (dumped) in 1 hour. You know why? Because the shareholders by and large have no faith in the company. Take a look at a competitor, Eastern Star. At its worst t lost $0.10.
Such stupid management. They even managed to stuff up the SPP! So much for my investment!

If the Metgasco management has any good news to justify and sustain its price rise they should say it, and not wait till people dump their shares back into the market.

The entire stockmarket goes up, MEL shares go down!


Damn


----------



## bonkerrs

Rob. No need to post twice (probably out of frustration) someone will reply soon. Someone always does!! :


----------



## jonojpsg

RobVan said:


> Does anyone know what the hell is going on with Metgasco shares..!? Why are they haemorrhaging so badly..!?
> 
> I just don't understand how MEL shares dived from $1.00 to $0.68 in like 2 days! Now they are drowning again, sitting at $0.62. This mroning they went as low as $0.60. I saw at least 1 shares sold (dumped) in 1 hour. You know why? Because the shareholders by and large have no faith in the company. Take a look at a competitor, Eastern Star. At its worst t lost $0.10.
> Such stupid management. They even managed to stuff up the SPP! So much for my investment!
> 
> If the Metgasco management has any good news to justify and sustain its price rise they should say it, and not wait till people dump their shares back into the market.
> 
> The entire stockmarket goes up, MEL shares go down!
> 
> 
> Damn




Calm down mate!  If you have read the previous posts and thought about it, of course the SP was going to head down after the SPP issued shares @ 45c.  The chance to make a quick 75-100% gain is too good to pass up for a lot of people and fair enough.

If you think longer term though and consider the value that is placed on MELs 3P targets, you would have no problem waiting it out for the real value to appear in the SP.  At least that's my


----------



## condog

I concur , its selling volumes from the 45c SPP profit takers....

Also MEL is currently sitting on some data to confirm or deny some significant upgrades in reserves , which is causing uncertainty that it has not been released yet.....No news is bad news in the life of traders......

MEL needs to release more info on its suggested significnat upgrades ASAP to stop heamoarage from the SPP profit takers.....

One things for certain the next month seems to be significant, its just a matter of whether its south or north for the SP, based on these suggested significant ugrades???????????

and yes the SPP was bizzare to say the least.......


----------



## Dangerous

RobVan has a fair point - logging data does not take this long to come through...

However, I am biased on this one (I know they say to never fall in love with a stock, so i should be cautious) and think that there is a good announcement around the corner

That said, would like to see it before xmas and that only leaves four days!  

But hey, if you've picked up rights and SPP in the last year at .40 and .45 you are not too worried.


----------



## RobVan

The MEL management is just not interested or understands that shareholders need to see the value of the company to place real long term investment behind it. 

If the Metgasco management does not work towards creating a value based company (not just a short quick buck company) they would need to take real steps in order to update their website with new discoveries on a constant basis, keep the market updated on a daily basis as to how the companies moving forward and in which direction. Their website is still not updates with recenet NSW discoveries. I mean how hard is it to pay an IT guy $200 for 1 hour to update a site? That's just silly and costly!

I see the shares heamoraging again this morning when the entire ASX is up. Why? because 'quick buck' shareholders are there just to sell as soon as there is a slight rise in the price.

Shareholders need to see the value of Metgasco as a company with a viable supply of Gas for future markets, and not just a shortcut to make a quick buck.

Cheers

Rob


----------



## RobVan

$0.575 this morning! After collecting their $25 million they all went on holidays. These guys have no clue at all about running that company. 

I rang today and asked why people kept continuing to dump stocks from the company, and the person whom I spoke with said that he had no idea. It will take a long time for people not to associate this company with a $0.45 p/s entity. 

All those morons wanted was $25 million, in this whole wide world, $25 million So if it goes back down to $0.45 or less, that's fine with them too.


----------



## skyQuake

RobVan said:


> $0.575 this morning! After collecting their $25 million they all went on holidays. These guys have no clue at all about running that company.
> 
> I rang today and asked why people kept continuing to dump stocks from the company, and the person whom I spoke with said that he had no idea. It will take a long time for people not to associate this company with a $0.45 p/s entity.
> 
> All those morons wanted was $25 million, in this whole wide world, $25 million So if it goes back down to $0.45 or less, that's fine with them too.




Lol, asking the company why ppl are buying or selling their shares?
SPP holders will always dump for a quick buck! Because if you don't dump now, someone will dump and push the price lower. You can always re-enter the stock after the SPP dumping


----------



## RobVan

skyQuake said:


> Lol, asking the company why ppl are buying or selling their shares?
> SPP holders will always dump for a quick buck! Because if you don't dump now, someone will dump and push the price lower. You can always re-enter the stock after the SPP dumping





Mate trust me those issued shares have already (by and large been dumped). Far more shares than were issued at the SPP have been dumped. I suspect these are people that bought around the high 40 and 50 (for the long term) that don't like the way the company has no stability in its share price. I mean what is the company worth? How is its worth measured if not by the value of its shares on the public stock market?

Right now share holders do not see the value of thsi company at all. Even if a major announcement is made in January or February. The long term investers will sell so fast before it is allowed to climb higher than $0.9. In the long term this company will find it very hard to grow beyond a $0.8 or $0.9 p/s company. 

I may be wrong, but I just don't see it. 

If a company has made the largest conventional discovery of Gas in NSW in 100 years, that should mean that its value has gone up - don't you think?


----------



## TheAbyss

RobVan said:


> If a company has made the largest conventional discovery of Gas in NSW in 100 years, that should mean that its value has gone up - don't you think?




Rob

The initial announcement attracted a lot of interest mainly day - weekly traders etc.

With the lack of follow up announcements those traders got out for a profit and some at a loss i would venture.

Some shareholders who held prior to the announcement are now taking some profits and others are holding on. I am of the latter and will continue to hold and have also taken up the SP plan.

Try and show some patience here Rob or just get out. You don't identify a massive resource and start producing it overnight. They need to continue drilling etc and with Christmas in the mix no one is going to be doing much of anything unless you would prefer they just keep announcing every resource increase no matter how small?

Be patient and you will be rewarded imo.


----------



## skyQuake

RobVan said:


> Mate trust me those issued shares have already (by and large been dumped). Far more shares than were issued at the SPP have been dumped. I suspect these are people that bought around the high 40 and 50 (for the long term) that don't like the way the company has no stability in its share price. I mean what is the company worth? How is its worth measured if not by the value of its shares on the public stock market?




Its worth is how much ppl are prepared to pay for each individual share.

SPP is nowhere near done.

35.5 Mil shares have been traded since allottment on the 10th Dec. Even though shares were allotted Midday 10th dec, we'll use the full volume of that day.
I'd say on average 1 mil of volume is non-spp selling; in the 9 days = 9 mil shares
35.5 - 9 = 26.5 Mil shares dumped from SPP
55.5 Mil shares issued = 30 Mil shares left to dump.
Now not everyone will dump their SPP shares; The figure is a guess at best. 50% of ppl dump their spp? 70%? 90%?
Around 1/2 the volume is already done; just wait and see when it finally stops and bounces.


----------



## RobVan

TheAbyss said:


> Rob
> 
> With the lack of follow up announcements those traders got out for a profit and some at a loss i would venture.





That's exactly what I mean. These guys have no clue about the perception of the public investor and to create confidence in the investor. They have no clue about the importance of follow-up announcements.

Mate I wasn't one of those investors who was in it for the quick buck. So when the company announced that it had made that discovery in NSW, I showed tremendous faith and pured money in (in addition to the SPP). I bought at least 30k shares at $0.8 (after its freefall in 1.5 days from $1.03 p/s). Thinking that a company with proven resouces which owns all rights to dig up and distribute would maintain its value and integrity. Well how wrong was I..!? 

The funds which were borrowed for the investment have had to be returned because they were called back. They were called because the price fell bloody $0.20 in one or two days and they got scared! In addition most of my SSP has been sold just to meet debt obligations. So mate not much use to be patient now. 

I am now one of the ones that sit there hoping that it will drop to some redicuolous amount where I can just purchase 10 or 20k worth of shares.

I tried to belive in the company, but others certainly did not share my sentiment. I would have never invested at $0.80 had I known it will freefall so much more.

Thanks for the feedback guys.

Rob


----------



## Wysiwyg

Percent of total equity per trade and dollars risked per trade. I didn't learn about these until I blew up many times. Stop loss and equity management are part of the trading plan nowadays.


----------



## skc

RobVan said:


> That's exactly what I mean. These guys have no clue about the perception of the public investor and to create confidence in the investor. They have no clue about the importance of follow-up announcements.
> 
> Mate I wasn't one of those investors who was in it for the quick buck. So when the company announced that it had made that discovery in NSW, I showed tremendous faith and pured money in (in addition to the SPP). I bought at least 30k shares at $0.8 (after its freefall in 1.5 days from $1.03 p/s). Thinking that a company with proven resouces which owns all rights to dig up and distribute would maintain its value and integrity. Well how wrong was I..!?
> 
> The funds which were borrowed for the investment have had to be returned because they were called back. They were called because the price fell bloody $0.20 in one or two days and they got scared! In addition most of my SSP has been sold just to meet debt obligations. So mate not much use to be patient now.
> 
> I am now one of the ones that sit there hoping that it will drop to some redicuolous amount where I can just purchase 10 or 20k worth of shares.
> 
> I tried to belive in the company, but others certainly did not share my sentiment. I would have never invested at $0.80 had I known it will freefall so much more.
> 
> Thanks for the feedback guys.
> 
> Rob




Sorry about your loss. Two crucial errors here mate... 

1. The day to day job of the management is not to prop up the share price. It is to run the company and monetise the resources. The share price will follow the fundamentals eventually, if the fundamentals were there, but no one can be sure when that might happen. On the other hand, management who cares only about share price are rampers.

2. You are investing on the share's fundamental yet you open yourself up for someone else to tell you when to sell. You have to let go of the fear of missing out... that fear will never make good investor / trader imo.


----------



## jonojpsg

Corrrrrrr!  Are you serious!!?? You leveraged up a margin loan (or equivalent?) to buy MEL at 80c after it had risen 100% in a couple of weeks  Mate, I'm sorry to be harsh but that is simply ridiculous.

If you had simply read this thread you would have seen the amount of talk about post SPP dumping - I was certainly looking out for it.  I was actually watching very closely during the last few weeks - traded into it around 60 and sold out around $1 as I thought that would be significant resistance and that SPP shares would push it back down pretty quick.

Anyway, from someone who has lost at least $20k from leveraging into trades that went south WITHOUT set stop losses, make sure you set a tight stop loss that is automatic and doesn't rely on you pulling the trigger!!


----------



## condog

Still no announcment on the proposed significant upgrades........

If they do come through it will be great, but there has been a lot of silence from MEL in the last 2 weeks.

Time will tell..


----------



## RobVan

condog said:


> Still no announcment on the proposed significant upgrades........
> 
> If they do come through it will be great, but there has been a lot of silence from MEL in the last 2 weeks.
> 
> Time will tell..





Mate, this is what I've been complaining about. All they wanted was that $25 mill. The rest can go to hell. At least 90% of the ASX was green today, MEL was in red. All other gas companies including ESG (MEL' nearest competitor) was trading at least 5c above last traded price. They released one update at 1.30pm on 24 December, half an our before ASX closing time and it wasn't there today.

Trust me, we're not dealing with the brightest management team here, by any stretch of the imagination. Small company = Think small.

Happy new year.


----------



## xolstis

MEL is on the move again, interesting considering the thin volumes on the exchange in general. Is this the follow-up ann we've been waiting for?


----------



## RobVan

Anyone know why the Australian Small Cap Investigator is no longer covering Metgasco???

I just saw it in their December 2009 edition!

I'd Probably because it's one of the most unstable energy companies in Australia. More ups and downs than a roller coaster .

Cheers

Rob


----------



## Propagate

RobVan said:


> Anyone know why the Australian Small Cap Investigator is no longer covering Metgasco???
> Rob




...because it triggered it's trailing stop level so became a sell recommendation.

Since introducing trailing stop levels to his stocks, a lot of the ASI stocks have dropped out and are no longer buy recommendations.

He does say n one of the issues that he will continue to monitor stocks that trip the back stops and would let people know via the news letter whether & when to buy back in.


----------



## RobVan

Lol, yesterday it went to $0.78, today $0.70 and dropping. No announcements or nothing, it's almost comical.

Why bother seriously..!?


----------



## questionall_42

RobVan said:


> Lol, yesterday it went to $0.78, today $0.70 and dropping. No announcements or nothing, it's almost comical.
> 
> Why bother seriously..!?




RobVan - welcome to volatility. If you don't understand beta, then look into it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_(finance) or http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/04/113004.asp

If you are getting frustrated by the movements, then get out. You will go crazy with the ups and downs. To me, this is normal volatility for a small cap like MEL. And I must ask - what is your exit strategy for MEL?


----------



## RobVan

questionall_42 said:


> RobVan - welcome to volatility. If you don't understand beta, then look into it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_(finance) or http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/04/113004.asp
> 
> If you are getting frustrated by the movements, then get out. You will go crazy with the ups and downs. To me, this is normal volatility for a small cap like MEL. And I must ask - what is your exit strategy for MEL?




Mate its not up to you to tell me to get out. You're not the one who lost $30,000 of your hard earned money!

My exist strategy is simple. Hold the company accountable for the lack of technical announcements during the SPP, they knew how to keep it vague to make it seem like they'd stumbled on trillions of litres of gas. But alas, one or 2 days before the actual issue (which was stuffed up) they announced that it was only billions. In the meantime people like myself believing the company (its vague announcement) invested at high prices in addition to the money forked out for the SPP (thinking that certainly the company would be worth more than $1 after their "great" discovery).

My mistake was I didn't put a trigger to sell after its loss of $0.2 in 2 days. I know, I am not the only one, but I sure will not be the silent one. This company has to act more responsibly towards its investors.

Exit strategy: wait and see if it goes back up, and try to recover some of the funds lost.


----------



## Largesse

wow.

this thread has really taken a dive. 

rob no need to be so defensive, you made a poorly timed buy, now your paying for it.

p.s. you should probably set yourself a stop..... hold and hope usually ends in tears


----------



## CapnBirdseye

So, it's just a paper loss atm.  I have to agree with the other posters, MEL is volatile and does drop pretty steadily without and flow of information.  Saying that, it runs hard with good announcements.... and they can be at any time.

So, don't be suprised of the falling SP, it doesn't mean that there has been a change in the fundamentals, just falling on low volume.  Small caps tend to do this because of 'investors' hitting the panic button.

Lots of news to come, its just a matter of waiting it out.  Management are busy running the company and announcements will come as necessary.


----------



## xolstis

Rob, small caps are volatile by nature. Blaming MEL's management for the volatility is as useful as blaming the government for the GFC. And MEL's management has not done anything wrong by the rules laid out by ASIC. 

While I understand your pain and frustration in losing a chunk of hard earned money, perhaps next time it's best not put down more than you can afford to lose on an exploration company - or use a stop-loss for capital preservation.


----------



## outback

I gotta tell ya Rob, with a strategy of "wait and see" I'm not that surprised your in trouble. You have to remember MEL is an exploration company, if it's ship comes in, it goes from beer to fine wine for you, but I can't see it as a company to risk going from beer to warm water for.


----------



## RobVan

outback said:


> I gotta tell ya Rob, with a strategy of "wait and see" I'm not that surprised your in trouble. You have to remember MEL is an exploration company, if it's ship comes in, it goes from beer to fine wine for you, but I can't see it as a company to risk going from beer to warm water for.





Cheers. That wasn't my stratgey, but atm not left with much option. I can eiter pull out now and permenatly end up losing the money or wait and see if the company is worth any more than $0.7 p/s to recover some of the losses.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Rob,

Mind me asking what level you bought in at?  Was it one parcel, or more?  Also, what prompted you to buy MEL in such large quantities?  Speculation, advice, fundamentals.. .

Cheers.


----------



## RobVan

CapnBirdseye said:


> Rob,
> 
> Mind me asking what level you bought in at?  Was it one parcel, or more?  Also, what prompted you to buy MEL in such large quantities?  Speculation, advice, fundamentals.. .
> 
> Cheers.




This is from an earlier post:

"pured money in (in addition to the SPP). I bought at least 30k shares at $0.8 (after its freefall in 1.5 days from $1.03 p/s)". But then was forced to sell at much lower because of the debtors recall of the loan (shares dropped too low too fast). Bought again at around )$0.70 and then it dropped again and was forced to sell, it went as low as $0.58.

It really is an unstable investement. I mean even for a low cap, and I've invested in a few. 

If it owns proven gas in large quantities, it should't be valued so low. 

The reason I've invested in MEL is becuase I was also into Sydney Gas before its sell-off and a friend who knew a fair bit about the natural gas/LNG industry recommended MEL.


----------



## skyQuake

RobVan said:


> This is from an earlier post:
> 
> "pured money in (in addition to the SPP). I bought at least 30k shares at $0.8 (after its freefall in 1.5 days from $1.03 p/s)". But then was forced to sell at much lower because of the debtors recall of the loan (shares dropped too low too fast). Bought again at around )$0.70 and then it dropped again and was forced to sell, it went as low as $0.58.
> 
> It really is an unstable investement. I mean even for a low cap, and I've invested in a few.
> 
> If it owns proven gas in large quantities, it should't be valued so low.
> 
> The reason I've invested in MEL is becuase I was also into Sydney Gas before its sell-off and a friend who knew a fair bit about the natural gas/LNG industry recommended MEL.




People inside the industry may knew well the fundamentals but in the short term that hardly applies.


----------



## xolstis

Indeed, the prospect for MEL from the fundamentals based on the gas reserves look pretty good, but they are still years from converting this to any actual cash flow. 

Short term fluctuations are caused by traders and speculators and the smaller the market cap of a counter the more affect traders can have on its movements. 

In fact, if you would forgive me for saying this, the effect of what you did by buying shares using a margin loan and then being forced to sell when there was a margin call would have contributed to fluctuations in MEL's sp (albeit by a very small amount). 

It is not the job of MEL's management to try to even this out, or prop up the price of the share in the short-term. If you aim to invest, be sure you can afford to stay for the long-term even through major fluctuations in share price (i.e. minimise leverage), if you are here to trade, then make sure you have a good strategy to limit your downside and avoid getting burnt too bad.

my


----------



## Wysiwyg

RobVan said:


> This is from an earlier post:
> 
> "pured money in (in addition to the SPP). I bought at least 30k shares at $0.8 (after its freefall in 1.5 days from $1.03 p/s)". But then was forced to sell at much lower because of the debtors recall of the loan (shares dropped too low too fast). Bought again at around )$0.70 and then it dropped again and was forced to sell, it went as low as $0.58.



I got rolled several times like this myself on various stocks. Give them a sniff of your dollars ( or o.p.m. ) and they will take the lot. Large bankrolls and loose lips sink ships.


----------



## condog

RobVan said:


> This is from an earlier post:
> 
> "pured money in (in addition to the SPP). I bought at least 30k shares at $0.8 (after its freefall in 1.5 days from $1.03 p/s)". But then was forced to sell at much lower because of the debtors recall of the loan (shares dropped too low too fast). Bought again at around )$0.70 and then it dropped again and was forced to sell, it went as low as $0.58.
> 
> It really is an unstable investement. I mean even for a low cap, and I've invested in a few.




I feel for you Rob its never nice to lose that much, but it can and does happen and its no bad reflection on this company over any other...... small caps and particularly exploratory small caps are extremely volatile and the investors are generally very fickle, flighty and cause huge swings.....

For some of us this is the exact reason we are attracted to small caps....

LEarn form it....that $9,ooo lesson will serve you well in the future...


----------



## RobVan

Haven't heard much lately from MEL. Btw I offloaded most my stocks. 

Anyone make any profits lately? Seems to be hovering around $0.7.   

PS: Capnbirdseye I sent you a private message. Cheers


----------



## condog

RobVan said:


> Haven't heard much lately from MEL. Btw I offloaded most my stocks.
> 
> Anyone make any profits lately? Seems to be hovering around $0.7.
> 
> PS: Capnbirdseye I sent you a private message. Cheers




Yeh I got out as well , a lack of faith in the delayed announcment of promised upgrade....i noticed a few days ago they mad another release suggesting upgrade.....wonder if timing is important or whether they are having trouble certifying it to whatever specification of ugrade they intend to release...


----------



## Dangerous

Recall my rant on Australian Small-cap Investigator?... There sister publication today spoke of the HGO placement 

_The raising was through Evans and Partners who conservatively valued the company at $0.79 a share last month. I heard on the grapevine that the $25 million placement had been filled within half an hour. This level of interest is a good sign._

What a joke!  On the grapevine... hmph!


----------



## freddysa

I bought some shares today. Hope for the best!

CORELLA P18 PROGRESS REPORT: Work is currently underway to remediate the blockage to recommence drilling.


----------



## RobVan

freddysa said:


> I bought some shares today. Hope for the best!
> 
> CORELLA P18 PROGRESS REPORT: Work is currently underway to remediate the blockage to recommence drilling.





A friend of mine did the same yesterday. He bought 2 x 50k parcels at $0.645. He thinks MEL has something big coming up. Also they announced the appointment of a new director today.

I am contemplating getting back in real quick.


----------



## naughtynickers

RobVan said:


> A friend of mine did the same yesterday. He bought 2 x 50k parcels at $0.645. He thinks MEL has something big coming up. Also they announced the appointment of a new director today.
> 
> I am contemplating getting back in real quick.




Mel seems to have good volumes above 66 cents dies off a bit below. If it can get back up there soon could be worth sticking around.

I have a $20K holding at around these levels but if we breach below 60 cents again I will sell out and get back in when some postive news comes in first, I wrote in the ESG thread this sector has had a lot of heat over the last 12 months I wouldn't be suprised to see this dip back to 45 cents levels it traded at for pretty much half of the last year.

RobVan when the worse thing to do is invest when a friend THINKS something will happen, if they have some postive insight then worth a punt but sounds like nothing more than a hunch hope he is right though I have been sitting on these farkers for almost 2 years and still  when I think I could have sold out for around 80% gain after a few months... oh well can't go on ifs! Anyway my patience is starting to wear thing though


----------



## Buckfont

nickers, with all co`s that have new technology and have the huge upside to be be the answers to our prayers hang in there. I own both MEL, ESG, and CTP, amongst others in small holdings. I also bought BHP at $3.04. a long time ago.  

Depends how patient you can be

I have a great deal of faith within this CSG technology. It`s a long road. I shall continue to do :- hang in there


----------



## RobVan

He thinks that MEL is quite undervalued considering its current reserves and potential. He had the company looked at by a pro adviser.

I Bought back in today at bargain lol.


----------



## RobVan

Here we go ladies and gentleman.  Just read the company announcement. Mel is soaring. A flow of good news to come I suspect.

Cheers

Rob


----------



## Sean K

Oh dear! A mate of mine said this was a rip snorter with news to come. Toot toot. Can't believe this tripe is floating about here, and the instigator is the one complaining about losing $$ in the first place on the company's poor communication. Unbelieveable.


----------



## RobVan

Not kidding mate, have a look for yourself. Anyway, got to be positive and if the company is improving its s/p then time to get my money back hey?

Rob


----------



## TheAbyss

TheAbyss said:


> Rob
> 
> The initial announcement attracted a lot of interest mainly day - weekly traders etc.
> 
> With the lack of follow up announcements those traders got out for a profit and some at a loss i would venture.
> 
> Some shareholders who held prior to the announcement are now taking some profits and others are holding on. I am of the latter and will continue to hold and have also taken up the SP plan.
> 
> Try and show some patience here Rob or just get out. You don't identify a massive resource and start producing it overnight. They need to continue drilling etc and with Christmas in the mix no one is going to be doing much of anything unless you would prefer they just keep announcing every resource increase no matter how small?
> 
> Be patient and you will be rewarded imo.




There you go Rob. Lot of people said similar things so pleased for all who stayed in or got back in.

Now don't expect this to go straight up and stay there this time either. Be happy with a 50% retrace (of the spike) or time your sell if you wish. Only way the retrace wont happen is if the news flow continues regularly.

Either way this story will unfold for a a few months yet.

In and staying in.


----------



## awg

RobVan said:


> He thinks that MEL is quite undervalued considering its current reserves and potential. He had the company looked at by a pro adviser.
> 
> I Bought back in today at bargain lol.




Hold MEL and other gas explorer stocks.

Lets just say their volatility is highly leveraged to announcements.

Which makes holding them a bit nerve wracking.

So you either got to try and trade them with a trailing stop and re-entry strategy.

Or pick and stick to a certain extent...after due diligence research.

The problem being if they announce a good find or a duster, they will likely gap your stop either way. 

Lets hope in this case a string of properly certified reserve and flow upgrades continue


----------



## naughtynickers

I sold out half my holdings today at 76 cents as I was ready to dump at below 60 the last few days as my fear of it retracting to 45 cent levels.

I am re-evaluating my outlook on this stock from a long term holder to short term profit taker. I've held for 2 years only to see the day traders jump all over each time and rape the s.hit out of it time and time again. 
I would say we will see a retrace back to mid 60's and then I will jump back in. 
Wait for the next jump and sell out a % again. 

Sometimes as much as you like a stock I am starting to learn you are silly not to take hype profits and restock up at normal trading levels. Run the risk of missing the boat if it doesn't come down but if you still hold some you at least get the chance of further exposure I guess.

Also Kudos' to RobVan called an the up coming we will be watching your comments closely


----------



## Dangerous

Hi all,

I have not looked at the announcments closely, but am I right in saying it is odd that there were no announcment that Kingfisher testing had begun - only announcment when it was finished?

Anyway, announcment looks good but if this is conventional this is as strong as it will flow. Still, only 20% of hole perforated perhaps they can get a 6MMSCFd flow accross all the sands.  That would be great and indicate a pretty big field.  

My concern is land access on this one.  I have been to fields in QLD, SA and NT and none of the fields coexist with good grazing land such as that on MEL tenements (drove down and looked at their fields last year).  Conversely, that is why a 6TJd well would be better than the CSG average of 1TJd.

Clearly on the $/2P metric MEL are undervalued.  The mkt is aware of them given recent activity and places a significant discount on their reserves because they see commercialisation risks.


----------



## RobVan

Dangerous said:


> Hi all,
> 
> I have not looked at the announcments closely, but am I right in saying it is odd that there were no announcment that Kingfisher testing had begun - only announcment when it was finished?
> 
> Anyway, announcment looks good but if this is conventional this is as strong as it will flow. Still, only 20% of hole perforated perhaps they can get a 6MMSCFd flow accross all the sands.  That would be great and indicate a pretty big field.
> 
> My concern is land access on this one.  I have been to fields in QLD, SA and NT and none of the fields coexist with good grazing land such as that on MEL tenements (drove down and looked at their fields last year).  Conversely, that is why a 6TJd well would be better than the CSG average of 1TJd.
> 
> Clearly on the $/2P metric MEL are undervalued.  The mkt is aware of them given recent activity and places a significant discount on their reserves because they see commercialisation risks.





That's a fair comment. Metgasco wouldn't experience as much ups and downs if the company kept the market informed on a regular basis as to the progress of its exploration activities. 

Apart from that, its holding its own pretty good today considering the ASX is in the ****ter again. Last I checked trading at $0.73 (even whilst being raped by the profit takers and the day traders).

Cheers

Rob


----------



## naughtynickers

What the hell happened to this afternoon after holding up well it got smashed 10%!!! 

I had an alert at 67 and got an email thinking it was another stock.
Had to rub my eyes to see it was MEL.


----------



## RobVan

nickers the ASX got raped today fell 1.6%. It wasn't MEL' fault at all. Our economy is moving ahead nicely, but we keep getting dragged down by Wall Street speculators. That's all it is. Fu...king speculators that bet with our lives. Doesn't matter how well a company or our eco is doing, we are at the mercy of speculators in New York.

Listen to Obama speech from yesterday, he pretty much said same thing. Listen to Greek PM speech today, he pretty much said same thing regarding the Greek bonds. China did exactly what economists have been saying it should do, that is, regulate its banking sector, which is what Obama is trying to do. But the Wall Street speculators won’t let us breathe. They've been punishing investors across the globe since the announcements by US and China re regulating banking sector.

Soon there wont be anyone left for these disgusting speculators to rob lol. They'll have to turn on each other - having hoarded all the money. Betting on stocks going down, betting on stocks going up. No real reason for investing, but treating the stock exchange like it’s a casino in Las Vegas.

They stole Billions from CFD trading which was one of the main reasons for the GFC. 

Having said that, if the entire economic and financial system doesn't collapse, and if these greedy speculators give the world a break and let the markets just recover, then MEL will bounce back, its books look good. Set for solid growth.


----------



## fureien

naughtynickers said:


> I am re-evaluating my outlook on this stock from a long term holder to short term profit taker. I've held for 2 years only to see the day traders jump all over each time and rape the s.hit out of it time and time again.
> I would say we will see a retrace back to mid 60's and then I will jump back in.
> Wait for the next jump and sell out a % again.




SAME!  i have too realised this with alot of stocks. its one thing to gamble that stocks will hold or run more the next day simply because of good news and you like it. day traders and the like dont think that way and will dump the crap out of it. after all it is mostly them who drove it up in the first place.

also thanks for the commentary guys, helps me understand whats going on with mel better.


----------



## RobVan

I just saw the top headline in the australian:

"THE Australian sharemarket continued its sell-off from last Friday, falling 1 per cent amid fresh concerns about the Chinese economy and nervousness over the coming profit-reporting season"

and why do they sell-off?

f...king speculators. Making money on shares going down.

You know how I know?

because the chinese economy is actualy EXCELLENT. Beautiful and healthy. The lending curbs (aka banking reguslations have not effected manufacturing).

How do I know? because the Chinese manufacturing sector actualy rose in january. 

So the moral of the story is: we are at the mercy of f...king speculators making money from shares going down.


----------



## naughtynickers

RobVan said:


> I just saw the top headline in the australian:
> 
> "THE Australian sharemarket continued its sell-off from last Friday, falling 1 per cent amid fresh concerns about the Chinese economy and nervousness over the coming profit-reporting season"
> 
> and why do they sell-off?
> 
> f...king speculators. Making money on shares going down.
> 
> You know how I know?
> 
> because the chinese economy is actualy EXCELLENT. Beautiful and healthy. The lending curbs (aka banking reguslations have not effected manufacturing).
> 
> How do I know? because the Chinese manufacturing sector actualy rose in january.
> 
> So the moral of the story is: we are at the mercy of f...king speculators making money from shares going down.




RobVan I am not expert but if you are trading with this much emotion take care.
If you are a long term holder of the stock don't worry about 'market corrections' the true value of a company can't be manipulated long term.

Or perhaps do what I am doing now take profits leave some in and buy on the dips. Longer term you will take advantage of both situations.

Don't worry about speculators they there 20K a week drug habits to fund


----------



## RobVan

Metgasco is a really good company to invest in. Because it has solid assets and will soon enter commercial phase. Day traders and short sellers will have to give it a break and stop raping it everytime it makes a break for the top.

Right now crawling its way up with the weight of 200,000 day traders and short sellers on its shoulders.


----------



## outback

I  don't  think  Robvan  likes  me,    I  have  tried  hard. :  :   . soime people are just fussy.


----------



## condog

Rob Im not currently holding MEL, i have in the past...

But i totally agree with your sentiment.... it is wrong that an assett cannot let the market dictate its true price because a bunch of predatorial speculators decide as a cohesive group to smash the price down on asset that is otherwise sound and would otherwise be valued higher....

It like a bunch of holligans camping on your front lawn for 3 weeks to take over your house when youve finally had enough and have to move out or leave for a break....

Any derivative that preys on the deliberate lowering of an assett value is morally, ethically and fundamentally wrong.....  It all began when people actually had morals and would never do such a thing, and now we have entire multi billion dollar funds that make their only livinf from such action....
Ban em i say...  but they wont....cause it allows for liquidity.... and coming off the back of a GFC the one thing the market needs more then anything is liquidity...


----------



## RobVan

These predatory speculators are destroying the markets. It's not only happening in Australia but in all major markets. They are driving perfectly good companies to extreme lows and making money in the process.

For example the MEL announcemnet today was great, but the New York specualtors have damaged global markets so much that as far as the stock markets are concerned these companies are becoming worthless.

Specualtors should be banned and the media in particualar should stop dramatising every little event/incident which occurs overseas. The problem is that the main speculators control most of the global media so they have a good relationship. For example: They published artticles about the financial problems of Greece 50 times. They will keep publishing it until the whole world starts shaking with fear and then the specualtors step in and go for the kill!

Metgasco and other like companies are very good companies and are unfortuantely the victims of these disgusting predators, that are riding the system which wasn't dsesigned to be abused in this way.


----------



## RobVan

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...short-sale-curbs-in-coming-2DR72?OpenDocument

US SEC to mull short-sale curbs in coming weeks

These disgusting short selling rats have cost us a lot of pain...


----------



## skyQuake

RobVan said:


> These predatory speculators are destroying the markets. It's not only happening in Australia but in all major markets. They are driving perfectly good companies to extreme lows and making money in the process.
> 
> For example the MEL announcemnet today was great, but the New York specualtors have damaged global markets so much that as far as the stock markets are concerned these companies are becoming worthless.
> 
> Specualtors should be banned and the media in particualar should stop dramatising every little event/incident which occurs overseas. The problem is that the main speculators control most of the global media so they have a good relationship. For example: They published artticles about the financial problems of Greece 50 times. They will keep publishing it until the whole world starts shaking with fear and then the specualtors step in and go for the kill!
> 
> Metgasco and other like companies are very good companies and are unfortuantely the victims of these disgusting predators, that are riding the system which wasn't dsesigned to be abused in this way.




http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

This is the daily short report published by the asx. MEL is not a shortable stock and there are NO shares held short in MEL.


----------



## outback

I agree with Rob, Share prices should only ever move up. And at a consistent rate. Not too fast . Not too slow so you don't make money. Just consistently. DAmn those people who think they can buy and sell shares all willy nilly. It's like they think they own them and can do as they please. 

Perhaps the Governent needs to take control, we could let them control everything and give us all an equal share in the profit.


----------



## RobVan

skyQuake said:


> http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt
> 
> This is the daily short report published by the asx. MEL is not a shortable stock and there are NO shares held short in MEL.





I didn't say MEL was being sold short. I said speculators in the markets dragging the *entire* markets down by short selling. Read the artcle I attached carefully, and that's what it says.

And outback, why the sarcasm??? World leaders are currently in negotations abaout regulating and reforming the markets. Why? because they have concluded that there are fundamental flaws there. 

And trust me when I say, if you buy 100k shares and then and sell it again and again at slightly higher value, then you tend to drag shares down - you keep flooding market with cheap shares rather than holding on. Would you call that investing?


----------



## skyQuake

RobVan said:


> I didn't say MEL was being sold short. I said speculators in the markets dragging the *entire* markets down by short selling. Read the artcle I attached carefully, and that's what it says.
> 
> And outback, why the sarcasm??? World leaders are currently in negotations abaout regulating and reforming the markets. Why? because they have concluded that there are fundamental flaws there.
> 
> And trust me when I say, if you buy 100k shares and then and sell it again and again at slightly higher value, then you tend to drag shares down - you keep flooding market with cheap shares rather than holding on. Would you call that investing?




Oh so you never sell? Its supply and demand... If you buy 100k shares it'll send the prices a tiny bit higher. If you then sell your 100k then you'll send it a bit lower in an equilibrium. How can you sell it again and again?


----------



## RobVan

skyQuake said:


> Oh so you never sell? Its supply and demand... If you buy 100k shares it'll send the prices a tiny bit higher. If you then sell your 100k then you'll send it a bit lower in an equilibrium. How can you sell it again and again?




Buy and sell 100k shares x 5 in 30 mins, it will drive it down. If a whole bunch of people do it then it's what we are seeing. There is a whole theory behind this which unfortunately I am not here to educate. sorry. 

PS: I bought for the long term. But unfortuantely got screwed early. Now I bought and sold at peak last week. Because I noticed when it reached $0.80 or so everyone else did. But if the shares werent so unstable I would definately hold on for long term.

Metgasco is a great company. The NSW deposits of methane enough to generate power for 30,000 homes for the next 650+ years!!!!


----------



## Largesse

RobVan said:


> Buy and sell 100k shares x 5 in 30 mins, it will drive it down. If a whole bunch of people do it then it's what we are seeing. There is a whole theory behind this which unfortunately I am not here to educate. sorry.
> 
> PS: I bought for the long term. But unfortuantely got screwed early. Now I bought and sold at peak last week. Because I noticed when it reached $0.80 or so everyone else did. But if the shares werent so unstable I would definately hold on for long term.
> 
> Metgasco is a great company. The NSW deposits of methane enough to generate power for 30,000 homes for the next 650+ years!!!!




you do realise that whenever someone buys 100k shares, there is someone on the other side of the trade selling those 100k shares to them don't you?


----------



## outback

So when you sold at 0.80 you weren't driving the price down?. Speculating a little that you'd pick them up at 0.60 next week? Saucepans calling boilers off white per chance?


----------



## RobVan

outback said:


> So when you sold at 0.80 you weren't driving the price down?. Speculating a little that you'd pick them up at 0.60 next week? Saucepans calling boilers off white per chance?




Not sure what to say to that? I never said I bought 100k, it was an example I used. Second, it's not about what I do as an individual its about 400 sellers driving the price down in predetory behaviour. Speak to professional brokers they'll give you the run down, causing panic and further sell-0ffs in an already volatile market.


----------



## skyQuake

RobVan said:


> Not sure what to say to that? I never said I bought 100k, it was an example I used. Second, it's not about what I do as an individual its about 400 sellers driving the price down in predetory behaviour. Speak to professional brokers they'll give you the run down, causing panic and further sell-0ffs in an already volatile market.




What if those 400 sellers had bought at 30c? Are they not entitled to sell their shares for profit as they see fit after a big run UP?
Since its already established that MEL is not a shortable stock, so all those sellers must have been once buyers.


----------



## RobVan

skyQuake said:


> What if ose 400 sellers had bought at 30c? Are they not entitled to sell their shares for profit as they see fit after a big run UP?
> Since its already established that MEL is not a shortable stock, so all those sellers must have been once buyers.




Certainly they are. But certain groups/companies abuse the system and buy, sell, buy, sell in one day - everyday. These people keep small cap prices down (roughly speaking). So a small cap company is consistently dependant on news of new and better things to maintain the same price level that it reached the day before when it reached that price because of an announcement. In other words if an announcement is made and the s/p goes from $0.5 to $0.7 then these people will ensure that the prices is always heading back down. Unless further anouncements come thorugh to stop the slide. This also prsents another dilema in that, the price is not reflective of the value of the company and hence contributes to an artificial devaluation or valuation of a company's stock. If a company has market cap of $780 mill, they shouldn't be worth the same price as another company in the same sector with $300 mill market cap.

If someone is buying and selling the same lot many times a day and if there is a large number of these individuals then this is detrimental and in a way it is contributing to negative slide of the s/p. 

Your example is different quake. You are reffering to people who buy cheap and sit on it and then sell when it gets to an attractive s/p. That's fine, and it's normal.


----------



## nomore4s

RobVan said:


> If a company has market cap of $780 mill, they shouldn't be worth the same price as another company in the same sector with $300 mill market cap.



 A company with a market cap of $780mil isn't worth the same as a company with a market cap of $300mil.
Do you even understand what a market cap is? A company with a $780mil market cap can be the same share price as a $300mil market cap company for a very valid reason.




> If someone is buying and selling the same lot many times a day and if there is a large number of these individuals then this is detrimental and in a way it is contributing to negative slide of the s/p.




Why is it not contributing to a rise in the SP as well?


----------



## RobVan

nomore4s said:


> A company with a market cap of $780mil isn't worth the same as a company with a market cap of $300mil.
> Do you even understand what a market cap is? A company with a $780mil market cap can be the same share price as a $300mil market cap company for a very valid reason.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why is it not contributing to a rise in the SP as well?




Yes more often than not there aren't any valid reason, except the s/p being afftected by the sort of practices mentioned above. Anyway, the markets are f...cked atm because of the unsavoury practices that I am trying very hard to explain (but fail to get through). It's done, whether you agree with my arguments or not, the markets which form the basis of our capitalist systems are malfunctioning and need to be fixed asap. If there was nothing wrong with them we wouldn't be here in this mess. Who says this? read the article I posted earlier.

Cheers

PS:_ market capitalization is the share price multiplied by the number of shares in issue, providing a total value for the company's shares and thus for the company as a whole._


----------



## skyQuake

RobVan said:


> Certainly they are. But certain groups/companies abuse the system and buy, sell, buy, sell in one day - everyday. These people keep small cap prices down (roughly speaking).




Why would they do that? If a firm wants to make money it can only do so if the price RISES consider the small cap isnt shortable! If its downtick all the time and it isnt shortable, NO-ONE makes money from it. Remember that equities are not 0 sum unlike futs.




> So a small cap company is consistently dependant on news of new and better things to maintain the same price level that it reached the day before when it reached that price because of an announcement. In other words if an announcement is made and the s/p goes from $0.5 to $0.7 then these people will ensure that the prices is always heading back down. Unless further anouncements come thorugh to stop the slide.




Again, why? Whats the point in keeping the price down? How can a firm make money that way? The only way to push prices down is to sell. Which means selling their existing holdings. Buying 100k shares then selling 100k shares does not push the price down. Just costs you the spread and brokerage. If it does, then why not short stock and do this till the stock price reaches 0?


----------



## TheAbyss

For anyone with any positive thoughts on MEL this is well worth a listen. If you can place any credit in what David Johnson has to say (and i have no reason not to)  this story has many chapters to come.

More gas than initially anticipated, love that line (remembering they already believed it to be the largest find in a century within NSW).

Be patient and you will be rewarded is my take away from this interview. 10 weeks of further testing.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/64075/partner/theaustralian


----------



## skip9

Interesting Listen.

With such good results of testing from Kingfisher what can MEL look towards in the future and more importantly where do we think this stock can reach? Does it have the potential to increase significantly?


----------



## skip9

It would be good if the market responded appropriately and we saw a steady rise rather than the usual day trader bashing.


----------



## RobVan

Just released:

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article206553.ece

*Metgasco bumps NSW numbers*
Australia’s Metgasco said further drilling and testing at the PEL 16 licence in New South Wales had boosted proved and probable reserves by 33% over previous estimates to 397 petajoules. 

Upstream staff  16 February 2010 01:58 GMT 

Metgasco said an independent study had also estimated proved, probable and possible at the licence at 2239 petajoules. 

Proved reserves remain 2.7 petajoules. 

The updated reserves replace figures released in March last year. 

Metgasco managing director David Johnson said the reserves figures were based entirely on exploration and development of coalbed methane resources and did not include the company’s recent discovery of a conventional gas reservoir on the permit in the Kingfisher-E1 well.

Hopefuly this should bring it up to the mid 70's. I wouldn't sell it cheap at this stage.

Cheers


----------



## CapnBirdseye

I'd say this was the least most people were expecting.  This upgrade should have been factored in by the market, hence the rise and fall over the day.

Unfortunately, there is likely to be some weakness in MEL's SP, if past performance is anything to go by.  At least until the next ann....


----------



## RobVan

CapnBirdseye said:


> I'd say this was the least most people were expecting.  This upgrade should have been factored in by the market, hence the rise and fall over the day.
> 
> Unfortunately, there is likely to be some weakness in MEL's SP, if past performance is anything to go by.  At least until the next ann....






Well with an outlook like that, no wonder the s/p are going to the ****ter. If investors don't belive in the company then no hope for sustained growth.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

I don't like it any more than you do, but that's the way it had been in the past.  Either understand it to allow you to stay in the market longer term without worryiny about these downtrends on low volume/interest, or use it to increase your holding.

As far as T/A goes, it's my understanding that a falling SP on low volumes isn't a big worry in the longer term.


----------



## xolstis

RobVan said:


> Well with an outlook like that, no wonder the s/p are going to the ****ter. If investors don't belive in the company then no hope for sustained growth.




Erm I think the good Captain is just stating a fact. It is the nature of markets to be as such and I think most people on this forum is in general agreement of this. 

The fact that your views seem to be constantly contradicting the rest of the forum probably means you're exceptionally brilliant and can see things the way the rest of us can't and are therefore making a killing on the markets. 

If this is not the case, perhaps you had better re-examine your understanding and approach to the markets to avoid getting burnt bad.


----------



## Dangerous

TheAbyss said:


> For anyone with any positive thoughts on MEL this is well worth a listen. If you can place any credit in what David Johnson has to say (and i have no reason not to)  this story has many chapters to come.
> 
> More gas than initially anticipated, love that line (remembering they already believed it to be the largest find in a century within NSW).
> 
> Be patient and you will be rewarded is my take away from this interview. 10 weeks of further testing.
> 
> http://www.brr.com.au/event/64075/partner/theaustralian




I have been patient Abyss... thanks for the BRR link by the way.

I have numerous concerns about the monetisation of this resource.  I will hold on for the 10 weeks, but will want to see something good!  There are way too many reserves in the one tenement - PEL 16 - and the flow rates do not match the resource when compared to Fairview, Talinga, Spring Gully, Berwyndale South, etc...


----------



## Dangerous

From Arrow Energy (AOE) drilling report:

_Clarence Moreton Basin. 
Total Resource in the Clarence Moreton Basin is 14,075 PJ. 
A hydro-fracture pilot was recently completed and preparation of this well for commencement of production and testing continues. Previous exploration drilling in the area has confirmed that the Walloon Coal Measures are well developed in this area, with thick seams and favourable gas contents._

AOE tenements surround MEL... if anyone is to acquire MEL it will be AOE.  AOE are looking to add 1500PJ/a... if they cannot do so organically they may have a look...


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## RobVan

Dangerous said:


> From Arrow Energy (AOE) drilling report:
> 
> _Clarence Moreton Basin.
> Total Resource in the Clarence Moreton Basin is 14,075 PJ.
> A hydro-fracture pilot was recently completed and preparation of this well for commencement of production and testing continues. Previous exploration drilling in the area has confirmed that the Walloon Coal Measures are well developed in this area, with thick seams and favourable gas contents._
> 
> AOE tenements surround MEL... if anyone is to acquire MEL it will be AOE.  AOE are looking to add 1500PJ/a... if they cannot do so organically they may have a look...




Thank you Dangerous. I'll be looking out for any signs.  

..........................................


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## Dangerous

RobVan said:


> Thank you Dangerous. I'll be looking out for any signs.
> 
> ..........................................




certainly listen to the BRR link on Abyss post as well.  Mid-April we should see some Kingfisher certification.  There cannot be much more in PEL16, so this one is the key.


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## rabbit59

Dangerous said:


> certainly listen to the BRR link on Abyss post as well.  Mid-April we should see some Kingfisher certification.  There cannot be much more in PEL16, so this one is the key.




Dangerous.. you will be happy to see a bit of news here...

Metgasco (ASX:MEL) advises that reservoir testing of the Ripley Road sandstone has now been
completed. This consisted of two tests in the Ripley Road.
In the first test, the well was perforated over a 5.3 metre interval between 2,043.7 and 2,050
metres, representing the lowest accessible zone identified from the wireline logs. For the second
test, the well was perforated over a 12 metre interval between 1,980 and 2,035.5 metres.
Following perforation the test program for each zone consisted of an Impulse Build Up Test
followed by cleanup, flow after flow tests and subsequent build up.
As previously announced, following a 7 hour cleanup flow, the first zone flowed at a stabilised
rate of 2.97 million scfd through a 1” choke after 15 hours flow. Following completion of the flow
after flow tests and subsequent build up, the downhole pressure gauges have been recovered
and data sent for analysis. Gas recovered during the test was very high in Methane and low in
all other components with 95.8%, Methane, 2.1% nitrogen, 0.3% carbon dioxide, and 1.8%
heavier hydrocarbons. A subsequent gradient survey did not indicate any significant production
of liquids to the wellbore during the flowing periods. No condensates were recovered.
The second test was conducted over the past week and was terminated early due to the slow
pressure build up. Further testing of the zones in the second test as a tight gas reservoir will be
considered.
With the completion of testing in the Ripley Road, the testing program will commence in the
Gatton formation where testing of a further 5 zones is proposed .The testing program is currently
being conducted without a rig and straddle packers and tests are completed using the full
wellbore to reduce cost. Owing to the extensive number of zones and the nature of the testing
process, the remaining program adopted will require up to 12 weeks to complete. The program
and zones tested will be modified as results are obtained from each test zone.
The data collected from these tests will used to progressively generate reserves estimates and
as input to the design of a drilling and completion program for full field development.


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## RobVan

rabbit59 said:


> Dangerous.. you will be happy to see a bit of news here...
> 
> Metgasco (ASX:MEL) advises that reservoir testing of the Ripley Road sandstone has now been
> completed. This consisted of two tests in the Ripley Road.
> In the first test, the well was perforated over a 5.3 metre interval between 2,043.7 and 2,050
> metres, representing the lowest accessible zone identified from the wireline logs. For the second
> test, the well was perforated over a 12 metre interval between 1,980 and 2,035.5 metres.
> Following perforation the test program for each zone consisted of an Impulse Build Up Test
> followed by cleanup, flow after flow tests and subsequent build up.
> As previously announced, following a 7 hour cleanup flow, the first zone flowed at a stabilised
> rate of 2.97 million scfd through a 1” choke after 15 hours flow. Following completion of the flow
> after flow tests and subsequent build up, the downhole pressure gauges have been recovered
> and data sent for analysis. Gas recovered during the test was very high in Methane and low in
> all other components with 95.8%, Methane, 2.1% nitrogen, 0.3% carbon dioxide, and 1.8%
> heavier hydrocarbons. A subsequent gradient survey did not indicate any significant production
> of liquids to the wellbore during the flowing periods. No condensates were recovered.
> The second test was conducted over the past week and was terminated early due to the slow
> pressure build up. Further testing of the zones in the second test as a tight gas reservoir will be
> considered.
> With the completion of testing in the Ripley Road, the testing program will commence in the
> Gatton formation where testing of a further 5 zones is proposed .The testing program is currently
> being conducted without a rig and straddle packers and tests are completed using the full
> wellbore to reduce cost. Owing to the extensive number of zones and the nature of the testing
> process, the remaining program adopted will require up to 12 weeks to complete. The program
> and zones tested will be modified as results are obtained from each test zone.
> The data collected from these tests will used to progressively generate reserves estimates and
> as input to the design of a drilling and completion program for full field development.





These are softcock results from MEL, in a market that's really heating up for LNG. If MEL has other positive news now's the time to spit it out.


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## Nero64

rabbit59 said:


> Dangerous.. you will be happy to see a bit of news here...




The market is not happy with this. Can't see too much wrong with it. maybe the 12 weeks is a bit too long for traders to wait and they are selling. What do they expect a takeover offer


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## kpas

Nero64 said:


> The market is not happy with this. Can't see too much wrong with it. maybe the 12 weeks is a bit too long for traders to wait and they are selling. What do they expect a takeover offer




Given AOE just got one, I would expect MEL is on people's minds as well.

150$m Market Cap (less actually because it's gone down 7c today) - compared to AOE's 3.5$b

That is not why it sold down today though, people were obviously expecting good news and a good amount of gas to be announced, instead, they got "we will take another 12 weeks to complete".

So I contribute it to day traders selling out and going elsewhere for 3 months.


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## Dangerous

basically the ripley zone is not gas bearing, or too tight from which to produce.

an earlier zone tested at 2.97MMscfd (from memory).  We will wait and see...


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## RobVan

MEL MEL you are such a silly little company...lol

The only company that defied the market yesterday and the day before to actualy lose value in s/p. lol lol lol


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## naughtynickers

Mel is def heading down to the 45 cent level I thought may be coming when I posted my thoughts about this topic a few months go.

I think a lot of people are getting out until they hear some positive news in regards to the planned pipeline from Casino to Ipswich and if it gets approval from the government regulators.

Since it went to it's highs in December it's pretty much being in free fall since, can't find support anywhere.


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## JTLP

Might have a chance picking them up in the 40's...looking at the chart and on fundamentals that seems like a good place to get some.

They seem to have gone pretty quiet and lost a lot of love in the CSG sector...maybe when things heat up again?


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## naughtynickers

i've got buy in the system for 42 cents it might reach it monday. small caps will get hit hard again after the selloff overnight. i'd do have a stop at 38 cause I get the feeling we are heading for a new bear market in the short term. mel and other stocks will just defy logic and sell off. 

i wouldn't be surprised to see this below 30 if the ASX200 goes back to 4300 ish


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## Sean K

naughtynickers said:


> i've got buy in the system for 42 cents it might reach it monday. small caps will get hit hard again after the selloff overnight. i'd do have a stop at 38 cause I get the feeling we are heading for a new bear market in the short term. mel and other stocks will just defy logic and sell off.
> 
> i wouldn't be surprised to see this below 30 if the ASX200 goes back to 4300 ish



Buy 42, stop 38, sounds like a cunning plan to me. Extremely cunning. Like a fox in the great woods of cunning. 30c is a nice round number I suppose. But I think it could get to 29.5. Or, maybe even 30.5.


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## naughtynickers

kennas said:


> Buy 42, stop 38, sounds like a cunning plan to me. Extremely cunning. Like a fox in the great woods of cunning. 30c is a nice round number I suppose. But I think it could get to 29.5. Or, maybe even 30.5.




Thanks for your humour. 

well i did say it was heading to around 45c which is where we are close to now, still see more downside maybe 20 or is that too round for you :


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## Sean K

naughtynickers said:


> Thanks for your humour.
> 
> well i did say it was heading to around 45c which is where we are close to now, still see more downside maybe 20 or is that too round for you :



30 is rounder to me for some reason. 

Can't believe it hit $1.00 a while ago, I was very heavily into this and sold out on my decision to take an 'Australia holiday'. I was originally in around this level, and not sure what I would have done seeing that incredible leap in a few days. Maybe upgrade my car to something YT esk. 

There's some significant support across 40c, would be surpried if that was taken out, but will be subject to the overall market as you say.


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## naughtynickers

Picked up a heap this morning at 30 cents. The nice round number came into play!
I think the bears might go into hiding for a while


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## Sean K

naughtynickers said:


> Picked up a heap this morning at 30 cents. The nice round number came into play!
> I think the bears might go into hiding for a while



Good luck buddy, because that is all it seems you are expecting. Do you hit Crown today as well?


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## RobVan

The idiot management of this company sat on its hands when feedback by investors - pouring money into the company - was desperately needed. Now that everyone's pulled their money out, they realise that people saw through their desperate act of squeezing 25 mill out of investors. This company has lost much credibility in the eye of many investors. Hence the miserable s/p.


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## naughtynickers

There is limited major news about MEL for a while now, I am tentatively holding my purchase at 30c but without any major news forthcoming it could struggle to climb back over 45c which I still see as fair price range for the stock given it's history. 

But with Glorious Glenda still at the helm and given her investment banking history she might have friends who could hold the price with some large purchases


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## overhang

Anyone catch Glenda on Lateline business last night? It was interesting to hear her prospective on the PRRT and an ETS.
The bulls are out for MEL today, up 6% as I speak but I think it will find resistance at 45c as this was the original SPP price.


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## Ben1234

*MEL*

Anyone watching this? Volume is up substantially over the last month and today the price has spiked.......another BOW, ESG???


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## breaker

I thought .40 would of pulled it up and got out at.38 as was on a Fri ,hard to trade these markets hopefully will pull back to .40


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## pixel

breaker said:


> I thought .40 would of pulled it up and got out at.38 as was on a Fri ,hard to trade these markets hopefully will pull back to .40



 ... almost _deja vue_ ...
I traded the frist swing, but got back on @40c - too early, apparently.
stop at 36.


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## gff

*Metgasco (MEL) not honest?*

MEL is not honest about the huge groundswell of community resistance, as experienced on 5/12/12 during a rowdy meeting with Brad Hazzard. I heard it was an angry crowd of 1000 people, demanding to be listened to.
From the media coverage I take it these people won't easily be moved. This area has a history of successful activism, and MEL could not have picked more difficult tenements.
The recent dip in the share price to a low of 15.5 cents may be a precursor of things to come. Investors have been waiting for a takeover offer, but who is going to take over a hornet's nest? Another Gunn's in the making?


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## PinguPingu

Man, I should be in the friends-of-letter-writing-people-that-make-share-prices-double business.


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## sinner

See from postings on fb that MEL got their CSG license for Bentley revoked and referred to ICAC? I guess the NSW Libs are trying to avoid a confrontation between the large number of protesters and police.

What's up with the crossed quote on the order board 18 minutes after open?


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## peter2

Nice chart for a break-out trader.

A quick glance at the latest activity report shows that MEL is looking for new opportunities in the oil/gas business after selling out it's gas interests in northern NSW. 

Will a price break-out precede new business?


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## Springs

Metgasco a JV in Vali field look promising Vali 2 exceeding expectations with well results director buying recently on market and Odin 1 could be a riper and still Vali 3 always dyor and DD my opinion Springs


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## barney

Nothing on this little fella for a while. Chart showing some signs of life.


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