# CEY - Centennial Coal



## Dutchy3 (1 February 2006)

Love the way this one is holding 380 when previously 360 had been support. 29/11 and 16/01 are indications of deep pockets taking LONG positions. Indeed the 16/01 relative volume increase over preceeding days / weeks trading is additionally positive. This one has a history of giving a BIG WHITE into new air as a signal for uptrend resumption. This may very well occur prior to the end of this week.


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## Dutchy3 (2 February 2006)

CEY behaves itself and in the time frame expected. Very welcome increase in relative volume as well. A return to 500 - 530 should be possible within 4 - 6 months

Long on the close


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## Narkov (2 February 2006)

Dutchy3 said:
			
		

> A return to 500 - 530 should be possible within 4 - 6 months




How do you come to this conclusion? Does TA indicate this?


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## Dutchy3 (2 February 2006)

Hi Narkov

Sort of ... how's that for vauge!

500 - 530 is simply the recent high point from a few months ago so in a few months time I figure it could make it back up there. At the moment (today) I'm reasonably confident that the postion I have taken will be profitable and that the story will unfold by (say) June - July 2006.

Apart from that I let the price action tell me how long, or otherwise, to stay in.


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## Dutchy3 (3 February 2006)

Sometimes a text book entry unfolds in real time for all to share.

Todays price action confirms yesterdays break out in a convincing fashion. All associated with increasing volume.


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## Dutchy3 (3 February 2006)

Sorry a little wined up ... here's the chart


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## michael_selway (3 February 2006)

Hi Dutchy thx

can u also do a techinical anlaysis of the EXL chart if thats ok

thx

MS


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## Dutchy3 (8 February 2006)

Considering the selling this week on the wider market I'm pleased at the way this one is holding up. Could be an opportunity to compound into this one coming up.


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## utedog (6 July 2006)

Hi everyone.

I've been looking at CEY for a while, does anyone know why the sudden rise in price - just over 9% today.  There haven't been any announcement... not that I know of at least... only EXL has become a takeover target... Any thoughts?


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## redandgreen (6 July 2006)

utedog said:
			
		

> Hi everyone.
> 
> I've been looking at CEY for a while, does anyone know why the sudden rise in price - just over 9% today.  There haven't been any announcement... not that I know of at least... only EXL has become a takeover target... Any thoughts?



Maybe there is some good news regarding the problematic Newstan mine.
There was a lot of tax loss selling on this stock last month.
imho this is a very well priced growth stock. it should be all up from here.
(btw  I hold.)


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## michael_selway (6 July 2006)

utedog said:
			
		

> Hi everyone.
> 
> I've been looking at CEY for a while, does anyone know why the sudden rise in price - just over 9% today.  There haven't been any announcement... not that I know of at least... only EXL has become a takeover target... Any thoughts?




i think exactly thats why, everyone is becoming a takeover "target" today

EXL, CEY, MCC, GCL, 

FLX, CNA maybe

thx

MS


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## 3 veiws of a secret (16 November 2006)

What dramatic drop in price after the announcement today for this share ......Takeover target I doubt it after this announcement.......meaty beefy ,big and bouncy morsels at -$3  .......Looks that the price is attractive for my portfolio needs.


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## noirua (16 November 2006)

About $83 million has been wiped off the market cap of CEY at $3.00,  after the strategic review. A $49 million writedown at Newstan - equal to one years trading profit; and Mannering closure and failure to get good enough offer prices on tenement sales has cost another $34 million - wiped off market cap -making up the remainder.

Make no bones about it Centenial have shot themselves in the foot.

On the other hand they are now worth watching should they fall to $2.50 or lower, imho.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (16 November 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> About $83 million has been wiped off the market cap of CEY at $3.00,  after the strategic review. A $49 million writedown at Newstan - equal to one years trading profit; and Mannering closure and failure to get good enough offer prices on tenement sales has cost another $34 million - wiped off market cap -making up the remainder.
> 
> Make no bones about it Centenial have shot themselves in the foot.
> 
> On the other hand they are now worth watching should they fall to $2.50 or lower, imho.




I totally agree with you ....I glanced at the announcement this morning ,and tried to gather my thoughts where to pitch in .....but the dog fight is on thats for sure.......as I type MCC are holding their AGM ......looks like coal is being bashed ....even Al Gore is in town I think  a catalyst ,I doubt it -spontaneous combustion -sure  :evilburn:  !!!!


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## noirua (22 November 2006)

Bought a few of these shares as the market brought this one down to my target $2.50 level, hopefully the selling has been overdone.


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## barney (23 November 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Bought a few of these shares as the market brought this one down to my target $2.50 level, hopefully the selling has been overdone.





Well done Noirua,  Around 10% profit in 2 days ..... Gotta be happy with that. (CEY $2.79 closed on its high for the day)  I wonder if this will rise as quick as it fell ..................... Any body hazard a guess on the "fundamental" value (devalue) to CEY's  SP regarding their latest ann's, or is the effect to the company not as bad as it first appears ............ the punters out there seem to percieve value buying if today was any indication. 

PS For what its worth, I would think that the selling at these levels should dry up fairly quickly, as who wants to sell at a massive loss, particularly when it looks like the Sp is going to rebound quickly ........... possibly a good buying op ..... and on that note I bought a few today ....... hopefully the theory holds water (or coal in this case!!)  Cheers, Barney.


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## noirua (22 January 2007)

Little has happened at CEY since the AGM., except the sale of 50% of Angus Place. Still holding and waiting patiently.


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## michael_selway (22 January 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Little has happened at CEY since the AGM., except the sale of 50% of Angus Place. Still holding and waiting patiently.




is CEY worth buying at current prices?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 17.5 16.8 25.4 34.6 
DPS 13.0 13.0 12.0 13.0 * 

thx

MS


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## noirua (23 January 2007)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> is CEY worth buying at current prices?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> ...





Hi michael_selway, "is CEY worth buying at current prices?"- you ask. Well, I know "joe blow" and the "moderators" are clever investors and may have analytical leanings as well, so, it's best to ask them.

All I'm doing is hoping CEY manage to unload unwanted interests at good prices. They could not have picked a much better time to do so. As to whether they will be able to pay off all debts and future costs from sales, who knows, certainly not me at the moment.


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## noirua (30 January 2007)

CEY are up 5 cents on the Second Quarter Activities report which came out this morning.


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## michael_selway (11 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Hi michael_selway, "is CEY worth buying at current prices?"- you ask. Well, I know "joe blow" and the "moderators" are clever investors and may have analytical leanings as well, so, it's best to ask them.
> 
> All I'm doing is hoping CEY manage to unload unwanted interests at good prices. They could not have picked a much better time to do so. As to whether they will be able to pay off all debts and future costs from sales, who knows, certainly not me at the moment.




Do you think CEY canbe a takeover target like EXL?

thx

MS


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## reece55 (11 February 2007)

Well, I'm not sure about a takeover target but....

I have been watching this one since the capitulation seen in mid November and whilst I am on the sidelines at the moment, I have a feeling this one is going to recover. The lows down to 2.45 attracted heavy volume and it wouldn't surprise me if some of the longer term holders took a stake at these levels. Since then, the stock has been in a sideways pattern. Sideways movement like this, whilst they can last a long time, builds pressure - a break in either direction would commence in a strong fashion. I favor an upward movement here.

Cheers


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## noirua (12 February 2007)

CEY are still the largest suppliers of thermal coal to NSW power stations. The recent bullish article on thermal coal prices for 2007/8 will give some confidence at Centenial. Once the company gets itself straight it will become good value at the present price, imho.

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070119/19/125j6.html


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## michael_selway (12 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> CEY are still the largest suppliers of thermal coal to NSW power stations. The recent bullish article on thermal coal prices for 2007/8 will give some confidence at Centenial. Once the company gets itself straight it will become good value at the present price, imho.
> 
> http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070119/19/125j6.html




Thanks, thats what i think as it well, CEY might be a FLX, like when it did badly and went down to $1.60 but now at $4.50+

thx

MS


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## noirua (20 February 2007)

Interim Results Broadcast from Centennial MD, Mr Bob Cameron:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/CEY/826/19138

STARTS at 10-30a.m. EDT


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## CanOz (20 February 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> Well, I'm not sure about a takeover target but....
> 
> I have been watching this one since the capitulation seen in mid November and whilst I am on the sidelines at the moment, I have a feeling this one is going to recover. The lows down to 2.45 attracted heavy volume and it wouldn't surprise me if some of the longer term holders took a stake at these levels. Since then, the stock has been in a sideways pattern. Sideways movement like this, whilst they can last a long time, builds pressure - a break in either direction would commence in a strong fashion. I favor an upward movement here.
> 
> Cheers




Well said.

 :iagree:


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## nomore4s (26 February 2007)

Anyone know what's up with CEY today? Up 5% or so


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## michael_selway (26 February 2007)

nomore4s said:
			
		

> Anyone know what's up with CEY today? Up 5% or so




Noirua, CEY will follow what FLX did, i.e. do badly for a yr and share price crashes, but then the recovery sweater!

thx

MS


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## TheAbyss (26 February 2007)

Most of the coal producers went up today, Gloucester, Macarthur etc


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## nomore4s (16 March 2007)

Up through the $3 barrier this morning, will be a interesting day for CEY


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## michael_selway (18 March 2007)

nomore4s said:
			
		

> Up through the $3 barrier this morning, will be a interesting day for CEY




do u know why it went up?

takeover maybe?

thx

MS


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## nomore4s (18 March 2007)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> do u know why it went up?
> 
> takeover maybe?
> 
> ...




No Idea Michael but its been building for a while (imo) as before the correction it was starting to edge up and it held up quite well through the correction and now seems to have headed north again.
I only own a very small parcel, was thinking of adding to it but there just wasn't enough volume to convince me to buy more.


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## nomore4s (22 March 2007)

Chart looking good, can't really find any resistance on long term charts till $3.25, maybe a little around $3.10-$3.15 but imo it will be around the $3.25 mark. Not really sure what has started to make it move up, but I'm not complaining.


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## nomore4s (22 March 2007)

3 year, weekly chart with likely resistance for anyone interested, once it breaks $3.10 it could run to $3.25???


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## reece55 (22 March 2007)

Yep, agreed looking nice.....

I managed to get on at about 2.88 after the break out of the range....

Should be good to go on, successful completion of sub debt issue and coal stocks generally looking a little better... it will be interesting to see where it goes from here....

Cheers


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## nomore4s (23 March 2007)

Moving up very nicely today :bananasmi


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## noirua (23 March 2007)

Now at $3.33 as coal stocks are seen as cheap in Australia. Look at the rating of Consol Energy (CNX) in the States. Interest from AMCI recently, in other coal stocks, seems to have given CEY a jump start. A long way to go yet, imho.


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## reece55 (23 March 2007)

Nice movement here today, CEY has now well and truly broken out........

This was a nice little trade, it will be interesting to see where it goes from here....

Best of luck to all holders...

Cheers


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## It's Snake Pliskin (23 March 2007)

I went long at $3.22 after the $3.20 mark was smashed earlier.


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## CanOz (23 March 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> I went long at $3.22 after the $3.20 mark was smashed earlier.




For those wanting a lesson in how not to let your winners run consider this:

I went long on CEY at 2.88. In changing over to I.G. Markets and not seeing allot of action on CEY i decided to exit for a small profit and transfer more funds to IG. That was yesterday!  

Moral of the story....trade the bloody plan!  

Cheers,


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## It's Snake Pliskin (23 March 2007)

CanOz said:
			
		

> For those wanting a lesson in how not to let your winners run consider this:
> 
> I went long on CEY at 2.88. In changing over to I.G. Markets and not seeing allot of action on CEY i decided to exit for a small profit and transfer more funds to IG. That was yesterday!
> 
> ...




It was a nice set up with confirmation today C! I watched it smash up to $3.45 and tried to short it back but it was too quick for me to get on - HIGH RISK.


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## CanOz (23 March 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> It was a nice set up with confirmation today C! I watched it smash up to $3.45 and tried to short it back but it was too quick for me to get on - HIGH RISK.




Well all was not lost, my other position, as i just found out, broke out today as well, COE. I'll post the chart over on that thread. I can't claim them though, both were picks from our friend in Noosa!

Cheers,


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## michael_selway (25 March 2007)

noirua said:


> Now at $3.33 as coal stocks are seen as cheap in Australia. Look at the rating of Consol Energy (CNX) in the States. Interest from AMCI recently, in other coal stocks, seems to have given CEY a jump start. A long way to go yet, imho.




do you have CEY Noriua?

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 17.5 15.9 24.4 31.5 
DPS 13.0 10.0 13.0 13.0 *


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## noirua (26 March 2007)

michael_selway said:


> do you have CEY Noriua?
> 
> thx
> 
> ...




Hi m_s, Yes, see post #15 - still holding. Now at $3.40, on a run, hold on tight.


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## macca (4 April 2007)

Now 2.96, what happened ?

I know it went ex div but that was only 4c

I missed the breakout so was kicking myself, now it is almost back to old price, what did I miss ?


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## michael_selway (4 April 2007)

macca said:


> Now 2.96, what happened ?
> 
> I know it went ex div but that was only 4c
> 
> I missed the breakout so was kicking myself, now it is almost back to old price, what did I miss ?




**** GCL trading halt!

thx

MS


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## It's Snake Pliskin (5 April 2007)

macca said:


> Now 2.96, what happened ?
> 
> I know it went ex div but that was only 4c
> 
> I missed the breakout so was kicking myself, now it is almost back to old price, what did I miss ?



Profit if you didn't take it.


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## noirua (12 April 2007)

Anvil Hill is the big project that Centennial eagerly await go-ahead on:  http://www.centennialcoal.com.au/ssl/axs/1/7.asp?recID=470

The environmentalists are trying to hold up the project.


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## noirua (14 April 2007)

Anvil Hill still awaits a go-ahead from the NSW Government. The mine will produce up to 10 million tonnes per annum of thermal coal for the domestic market and overseas. The mine will be beneficial to NSW and Australia as a whole, in so far as the economy is concerned. 

This link that was out at the end of February last shows the amount of confidence in the project:  http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2007/s1844672.htm


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## CanOz (14 April 2007)

Heres another chart with the weekly pivots on the daily....the bounce off support coupled with the bullish divergence is seen as bullish, as i currently understand it.

Cheers,


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## noirua (17 April 2007)

noirua said:


> Anvil Hill still awaits a go-ahead from the NSW Government. The mine will produce up to 10 million tonnes per annum of thermal coal for the domestic market and overseas. The mine will be beneficial to NSW and Australia as a whole, in so far as the economy is concerned.
> 
> This link that was out at the end of February last shows the amount of confidence in the project:  http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2007/s1844672.htm




The third terminal approval at the Newcastle Port, looks very good for an approval to follow for the mine at Anvil Hill.


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## noirua (20 April 2007)

Quite a good move today as CEY move up to $3.20, up 14 cents. The Anvil Hill prospect is looking very good for a go ahead announcement.


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## reece55 (22 April 2007)

I'm really liking the looks of CEY here and might go in for another long position.....

Not sure if anyone is aware, but there is a large % of this stock short sold at the moment (2.59% of issued cap @ 16/04/07).... Unless they have been short since November, they would be getting a little nervous by now.... May be a short squeeze op here....

Nice support base at $3.00, a nice break upwards above the 3.30's would have me tempted......

Cheers
Reece


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## noirua (11 May 2007)

A look over Anvil Hill, one of the largest prospective thermal coal mines:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTsEG4TR3So


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## rocka1 (15 May 2007)

*CEY -  Centenial Coal Company*

Hi all ive been doing some research on this company i have noticed volume picking up over the last week with an average of 1.2 million turnover , fairly healthy, but get this shares volume topped 12.6 million with 12 of this after market today in last couple of minutes also noticed alot of new substantial holders coming on board last month i dont own but maybe look at tomorrow, does anyone else know much about company?  This is my opinion only dyor


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## rocka1 (16 May 2007)

Anyone looking at cey volume is looking good the morning again just cracked the 3.00 mark asr just put out a buy on it at 3.00 what do members think  cheers rocka. ps doyr


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## rhen (16 May 2007)

rocka1 said:


> Anyone looking at cey volume is looking good the morning again just cracked the 3.00 mark asr just put out a buy on it at 3.00 what do members think  cheers rocka . ps doyr




My reading of the weekly chart for CEY is that it is encouraging with all four of my indices suggesting buy. I own shares in CEY.


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## reece55 (7 June 2007)

Did anyone else catch a ride on this one at the end of trade......

Just spotted this one just in time, Anvil Hill was approved today by the NSW Govt - the stock went mental. It's not often you see a stock break out so incredibly, but it sure is beautiful to watch. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow, possible further entry on the retrace.......

Cheers


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## nomore4s (7 June 2007)

reece55 said:


> Did anyone else catch a ride on this one at the end of trade......
> 
> Just spotted this one just in time, Anvil Hill was approved today by the NSW Govt - the stock went mental. It's not often you see a stock break out so incredibly, but it sure is beautiful to watch. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow, possible further entry on the retrace.......
> 
> Cheers




Yeah Reece, I was watching it, but I've had a small amount of shares since $2.80 so I was pretty happy this arvo. Chart looks good, a bit of resistance at $3.45-$3.50 (not all on this chart) but it should hopefully clear that on the back of the ann. A double bottom formed about 10days or so ago, but I missed the entry on it as I hadn't been watching this one closely.


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## R0n1n (15 June 2007)

is this stock froming a triangle ? hopefully I am right... ... been watching it for a while and looking for an entry..


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## noirua (15 June 2007)

The Centennial price performance has been quite disappointing in the wake of the approval for the Anvil Hill, open-cut mine, about a week ago. The mine will produce 10.5 mtpa(ROM) thermal coal, mostly for export through the Port of Newcastle. There lies the hold-up as the Port of Newcastle expansion has the go-ahead but none of it is in place, as yet.

Vanguard Group became a substantial holder in CEY at 5.16% and Maple Brown Abbot increased their substantial holding to 8.9%.


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## noirua (23 July 2007)

CEY's year ahead and near term future looks set very fair indeed. The last 12 months saw an increase in coal production to 20.1 mtpa under management, an increase of 14%.

Anvil Hill has its go-ahead and Centennial has restarted talks with prospective partners.


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## ta2693 (23 July 2007)

Coal sector is going to a very interesting sector in the future. 
On the one hand, China is importing a lot of ores which needs a lot of coal to turn them into metal.
On the other hand, for environment and resource protection reason, China is closing its coal mines especially the small coal mines. China is the main producer of Coal.


It is not hard to imagine the demand will exceed the supply in coal which makes the coal price even higher.

There is no more coal company left which did not nearly double its price in the past half year.
ECU, GUJ, CEY maybe the only three left. I expect the market will rerate them in  three months future.


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## noirua (14 August 2007)

Centennial is one of my favourite coal stocks. Anvil Hill is set to produce agreements to sell 10% stakes that should bring in enough cash for development of the open-cut mine. Up slightly yesterday, against the trend - imho, very interesting.


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## noirua (29 August 2007)

noirua said:


> Centennial is one of my favourite coal stocks. Anvil Hill is set to produce agreements to sell 10% stakes that should bring in enough cash for development of the open-cut mine. Up slightly yesterday, against the trend - imho, very interesting.




Centennial Coal are holding up quite well in this "The Great Slide" in markets throughout the world. Anvil Hill is, IMHO, very, very much undervalued. Amongst all the coal stocks this one is the one to think about. Felix Resources is a similar stock but has not yet been given the go-ahead at Moolarben.


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## Dutchy3 (3 September 2007)

Back on the horse

LONG on the CLOSE for me today ... the weekly is positive for a weekly breakout. The daily close at 3.50


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## reece55 (3 September 2007)

Dutchy3 said:


> Back on the horse
> 
> LONG on the CLOSE for me today ... the weekly is positive for a weekly breakout. The daily close at 3.50




Hi Dutchy...

Looking good mate, I like the look of CEY from here.... that resistance at 3.50 dates back to prior to the November capitulation.... blue skies ahead...

Cheers


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## michael_selway (3 September 2007)

reece55 said:


> Hi Dutchy...
> 
> Looking good mate, I like the look of CEY from here.... that resistance at 3.50 dates back to prior to the November capitulation.... blue skies ahead...
> 
> Cheers




Hi Dutchy, its not bad

*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-08 19.7 17.3 85.7% 
Year Ending 30-06-09 32.2 10.6 63.4% 

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 10.6 19.7 32.2 51.4 
DPS 8.0 10.0 13.0 19.9 *

thx

MS


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## Dutchy3 (4 September 2007)

My first entry since losing 30% of my capital in recent weeks ...

I've really got to watch my gearing levels ... Blue skys would be good. Lets see how it holds up for the balance of the week.


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## noirua (5 September 2007)

CEY have pushed on up to $3.55 this morning which is one of the best results, if not the best, in the coal sector in the last few weeks. The Anvil Hill mine remains the key interest as partners are arranged.


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## michael_selway (13 September 2007)

noirua said:


> CEY have pushed on up to $3.55 this morning which is one of the best results, if not the best, in the coal sector in the last few weeks. The Anvil Hill mine remains the key interest as partners are arranged.




The forecast growth numbers look too very compelling

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 10.6 19.2 39.6 51.4 
DPS 8.0 9.0 13.0 19.9 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-08 19.2 18.8 81.0% 
Year Ending 30-06-09 39.6 9.1 106.2% *

thx

MS


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## noirua (15 September 2007)

Centennial have moved close to $4.00 and a market cap of $1.2 billion, and trading on Friday a healthy 2.34 million shares. May have further to go as the value of Anvil Hill hits home.


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## benwex (17 September 2007)

CEY has just entered a trading halt...

I am of the opinion, the recent sharp rally in the SP suggests  some very positve news ahead..

This is a very leaky and inefficient market we play in.

Lets hope its has nothing to do with their mountain of debt...


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## michael_selway (17 September 2007)

benwex said:


> CEY has just entered a trading halt...
> 
> I am of the opinion, the recent sharp rally in the SP suggests  some very positve news ahead..
> 
> ...




Its not a takeover or merger is it?

Looks at GCL, MCC, FLX, RSP etc

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 10.6 19.2 35.7 51.4 
DPS 8.0 9.0 13.0 19.9* 


thx

M


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## buggalug (17 September 2007)

Centennial Announces Sale of Anvil Hill, Takeover Offer Received for Austral Coal 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00759767


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## buggalug (17 September 2007)

buggalug said:


> Centennial Announces Sale of Anvil Hill, Takeover Offer Received for Austral Coal
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00759767




Interesting day, the market seemed to like the announcement at first driving the price up to $4.29, then pushing it down to $3.94 by close.


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## noirua (18 September 2007)

buggalug said:


> Interesting day, the market seemed to like the announcement at first driving the price up to $4.29, then pushing it down to $3.94 by close.





I've sold my holding in Centennial as it looks as if we're into a boring period of votes etc. Hope it goes higher for those still holding - good luck.


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## Dutchy3 (18 September 2007)

OK so that worked ... shorter term holders might like to review as see if this qualifies as a hold now ....


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## Dutchy3 (26 October 2007)

Having another crack at this one ... everything seems strong enough for another decent move and as this is via CFD nicely geared.


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## michael_selway (26 October 2007)

Dutchy3 said:


> Having another crack at this one ... everything seems strong enough for another decent move and as this is via CFD nicely geared.




Hm past $4 again today!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 10.6 15.6 22.9 30.4 
DPS 8.0 8.7 10.2 13.0 *

thx

MS


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## imajica (30 October 2007)

Australian coal producer Centennial Coal Ltd said today it has accepted Xstrata Ltd's $479 million takeover bid for Austral Coal Ltd.

Centennial said in a statement that Xstrata's bid for Austral Coal, the owner of the Tahmoor mine in southern NSW, was at $1.83 a share.

Centennial has an 86 per cent stake Austral Coal.

Centennial, which sold its Anvil Hill project to Xstrata for $557 million in September, said proceeds from the sale of Anvil and Austral would be used to reduce the group's borrowing by about $400 million.

The company also plans to return up to $2.00 for each Centennial share held by shareholders.


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## rustyheela (27 December 2007)

*CEY*

was just wondering if any stock holders could answer the question about their $1.88 capital return? is it correct that as the return goes "ex" if the stock is sold at the new lower price can a capital loss be claimed? is this correct or not as i am a little confused. any thoughts or opinions from current holders would be appreciated.
                                          Thanks


----------



## michael_selway (28 December 2007)

*Re: CEY*



rustyheela said:


> was just wondering if any stock holders could answer the question about their $1.88 capital return? is it correct that as the return goes "ex" if the stock is sold at the new lower price can a capital loss be claimed? is this correct or not as i am a little confused. any thoughts or opinions from current holders would be appreciated.
> Thanks




Hm when it goes '"ex", market price will drop around $1.88

However your "Cost Base" when calulating CGT will also be reduced bu $1.88

So it is unlikely you will be making a loss unless you bought at the peak!

Correct me if i'm wrong 

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 10.6 15.5 27.6 26.9 
DPS 8.0 10.0 13.5 13.9 *

What a great stock this has been

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (29 December 2007)

Well done m_s and others who held on to this one. I sold out for $3.94 in mid-September and it looks to be nearly a $ better now.  Will watch this one when it goes ex the $1.88 cash return and 12c extra divi.  Good Luck - noi


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## tronic72 (14 January 2008)

Was just sorting my watch list and noticed this.

CEY 40% drop today. Anyone know what has happened?????


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## rhen (14 January 2008)

Hi Tron

Check your mail for late December.
ex capital return date 14/1/08 of $1.88 per share

regards
rhen


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## trinity (14 January 2008)

CEY has dropped ~41% to 2.89 from 4.9 last Friday.  

newbie question: What does ex capital return mean?

Thanks.


----------



## oldblue (14 January 2008)

trinity said:


> CEY has dropped ~41% to 2.89 from 4.9 last Friday.
> 
> newbie question: What does ex capital return mean?
> 
> Thanks.




Means that if you buy now, buyer doesn't get the capital return (payment) of $1-88 per share. It would be paid to the seller of the shares. Hence the drop in sp.


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## rhen (14 January 2008)

I think it would be best if you went to the CEY announcements.
Look up those dated 20/12/2007 where relevant info is given including a telephone number for any queries
Your broker or online broker will have the information
try ASX:
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...ssuerCode=CEY&timeFrameSearchType=Y&year=2007


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## noirua (26 January 2008)

Centennial is one of the few coal stocks not to bounce that much on Friday. Should make up for that next week. Capital return is now complete and Anvil Hill out of the way. Selling Anvil Hill was probably great news, for Xstrata that is, anyway, all those loans or most of them are paid off now.


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## michael_selway (28 January 2008)

noirua said:


> Centennial is one of the few coal stocks not to bounce that much on Friday. Should make up for that next week. Capital return is now complete and Anvil Hill out of the way. Selling Anvil Hill was probably great news, for Xstrata that is, anyway, all those loans or most of them are paid off now.




Yeah but CEY has hardly fallen last week! while other are still below their peaks!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 10.6 16.0 34.3 42.5 
DPS 8.0 9.2 13.0 15.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## reece55 (18 February 2008)

It's been a great run for CEY since their capital return and divestment, but she's starting to look expensive here.....

Fairly bearish move today, high volume, close on the lows and a very tall candle...... reeks of distribution to me....

Anyone else cashing out???? Nick, I know this has been one of your longs, still in?

Cheers


----------



## michael_selway (20 February 2008)

reece55 said:


> It's been a great run for CEY since their capital return and divestment, but she's starting to look expensive here.....
> 
> Fairly bearish move today, high volume, close on the lows and a very tall candle...... reeks of distribution to me....
> 
> ...




Hm stock still looks great and its really in teh right industry at the right time

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 10.6 16.0 37.3 45.3 
DPS 8.0 9.0 15.6 20.2 *

thx

MS


----------



## dj_420 (6 May 2008)

CEY keeps showing a lot of strength, volume was well up today on a 4% rise. Maybe starting to look cheap on peer comparison, after all they do have 1.5 billion tonnes of coal and producing 15 mt. 

I jumped on board for a long term buy. I am hoping we can start to see some production expansion and get more of the tonnage overseas.


----------



## nomore4s (6 May 2008)

dj_420 said:


> CEY keeps showing a lot of strength, volume was well up today on a 4% rise. Maybe starting to look cheap on peer comparison, after all they do have 1.5 billion tonnes of coal and producing 15 mt.
> 
> I jumped on board for a long term buy. I am hoping we can start to see some production expansion and get more of the tonnage overseas.




While knowing nothing about the fundimentals, the chart is showing some signs of weakness imo. Starting to look like distribution to me. A lot of upthrusts and weak closes over the last couple of months, every attempt to move up lately appears to have strong selling into it.

Just my , good luck to all.


----------



## michael_selway (6 May 2008)

dj_420 said:


> CEY keeps showing a lot of strength, volume was well up today on a 4% rise. Maybe starting to look cheap on peer comparison, after all they do have 1.5 billion tonnes of coal and producing 15 mt.
> 
> I jumped on board for a long term buy. I am hoping we can start to see some production expansion and get more of the tonnage overseas.




Hm its still not bad, btw do you mean 1.5 billion tonnes of coal even after the sale on Anvil?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 10.6 15.7 49.2 64.3 
DPS 8.0 10.0 20.0 28.3 *

thx

MS


----------



## dj_420 (7 May 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hm its still not bad, btw do you mean 1.5 billion tonnes of coal even after the sale on Anvil?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...




Attached is the breakdown of CEY resources, even without Anvil Hill we have total resources (Measured, indicated and inferred) at 2.6615 billion tonnes of coal. Not bad really. Anvil Hill accounted for 500.2 million tonnes.

In the reserves area we have 520.1 million tonnes when taking out Anvil Hill which was 158.0 million tonnes of CEY reserves.

So although Anvil Hill was a substantial resource CEY still has a great deal of coal left. I would like to see some more of those resources been converted into reserves.

The other thing I would like to see happen is upgraded production. Currently the ROM was 15.2 million tonnes on a YTD basis. Still a substantial mining operation.


----------



## dj_420 (7 May 2008)

Many people on this? It has been running for a while but no one is talking.

Up a couple of percent on above average volume again. Another good rise and it will be making new highs.


----------



## dj_420 (23 May 2008)

Not many on this one but had nice 11% rise today. I like this one for the long term with around 15 million tonnes per annum produced is one of Australia's largest coal miners with many long term contracts been unwound over the next two years.

CEY will increasingly put tonnage towards exports rather than the domestic market. I think they have consolidated nicely between the 4.50 and 4.70 period and broken out today with a number of coal miners.


----------



## michael_selway (23 May 2008)

dj_420 said:


> Not many on this one but had nice 11% rise today. I like this one for the long term with around 15 million tonnes per annum produced is one of Australia's largest coal miners with many long term contracts been unwound over the next two years.
> 
> CEY will increasingly put tonnage towards exports rather than the domestic market. I think they have consolidated nicely between the 4.50 and 4.70 period and broken out today with a number of coal miners.




Hm, not many on this??? I'm on it, so is Noirua i think!!!

Anyway the thing is that the perception that "not many are on it", is actually good as thsi means that once everyone gets on it, prices will go even higher?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
 2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 10.6 16.5 48.2 64.7 
DPS 8.0 10.0 20.0 29.1 *

Thanks

MS


----------



## dj_420 (24 May 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hm, not many on this??? I'm on it, so is Noirua i think!!!
> 
> Anyway the thing is that the perception that "not many are on it", is actually good as thsi means that once everyone gets on it, prices will go even higher?
> 
> ...




Hey Michael, maybe it is all institutions on board this one instead of forum members!!!

Anyways good run today, I think it was only beginning of significant re-rating.


----------



## white_goodman (4 June 2008)

i think i missed the boat on this one... 

im a beginner investor but didnt the change in regards to royalties and the 100tonne threshold mean bad news for coal companies ?


----------



## michael_selway (4 June 2008)

white_goodman said:


> i think i missed the boat on this one...
> 
> im a beginner investor but didnt the change in regards to royalties and the 100tonne threshold mean bad news for coal companies ?




Hi is there any links?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 10.6 16.0 54.0 72.2 
DPS 8.0 10.0 20.0 29.1 *

thx

MS


----------



## dj_420 (17 June 2008)

CEY moving from strength to strength, contracts unwinding and I think a thinly veiled hint at Awaba resource estimate going to be larger than expected.

Does anyone know when this is due?


----------



## dj_420 (18 June 2008)

Not too much talk on this thread but CEY slowly getting up there, bit oversold today IMO.

Hey Michael do you have an updated earnings per share figures? Cheers.


----------



## michael_selway (19 June 2008)

dj_420 said:


> Not too much talk on this thread but CEY slowly getting up there, bit oversold today IMO.
> 
> Hey Michael do you have an updated earnings per share figures? Cheers.




Hi dj

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 6.5 16.5 57.9 73.7 
DPS 4.9 10.0 20.0 28.4 *

thx

MS


----------



## dj_420 (19 June 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi dj
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...




I think CEY is really starting to look good Michael, those earnings really start to increase next year. This would be due to the additional tonnage available to sell on exports.

I am eagerly awaiting Awaba resource estimate, does anyone have any inkling on what the size will be?


----------



## dj_420 (19 June 2008)

Looking at the chart we can begin to see the overall strength that CEY has shown. Although market may have fluctuated and been very volatile CEY has been in a nice trending channel for the past three months.

CEY has historically found some resistance at 5.00 mark, tightening of trading range and then broke through on volume spike. I expected 6.00 to have a bit more resistance but moved very quickly through the 6.00 range in last few days. The sp did break above that trading channel so it may either form a new trading channel above old channel or drop back into the channel.

I would see short term downside risk at 5.50 and 5.00 for support levels. Volume has been increasing steadily and has been a sustained rise in volume, rather than large volume spikes. 

MACD crossed around a week ago, stochastics are saying its overbought but in the past it has continued trends running at the top of range. From here I would like 6.00 mark to build support and new base but if it fails that point it may settle back down into the old trading range although maintain the uptrend.


----------



## agro (23 June 2008)

although i haven't been contributing as much as i have on the CEY thread as i have on the FMG

this would have to be up there on my top stock list..


CEY goes ex-div on the 25th (wed), 4 cents fully franked..

this is part of their capital they gave to holders $1.88 earlier this year

cheers


----------



## michael_selway (23 June 2008)

agro said:


> although i haven't been contributing as much as i have on the CEY thread as i have on the FMG
> 
> this would have to be up there on my top stock list..
> 
> ...




Hi what others are in your "top list" besides FMG & CEY

thx

MS

---------------------------------------------


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## agro (24 June 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi what others are in your "top list" besides FMG & CEY
> 
> thx
> 
> ...




lol - wouldn't you like to know 

does anyone think that CEY will get a rub on effect due to the MCC takeover and talbot stepping down?

edit - i think going by the IAP, CEY +6% might suggest that people are switching boats here


----------



## dj_420 (24 June 2008)

agro said:


> lol - wouldn't you like to know
> 
> does anyone think that CEY will get a rub on effect due to the MCC takeover and talbot stepping down?
> 
> edit - i think going by the IAP, CEY +6% might suggest that people are switching boats here




A number of factors here I think Agro:

1 - Unwinding contracts, more coal available for export market
2 - Better ROM on a number of deposits
3 - Increase in thermal coal prices

Also I might add the coal deposit on Wallarah and surrounding areas is around 1,030 million tonnes of high quality thermal coal, this is in dispute and will be ruled apon by State govt. Very contentious issue but if approved will add at least 5 million tonnes per annum onto CEY output. I do not know the exact amount on CEY tenements but this deposits fall onto existing tenements owned by CEY.

By the way, has anyone heard anything on the Wallarah mine lately? Just curious as I am wondering when this might be decided apon. But a favourable result would result in a massive boost in future earnings for CEY.


----------



## dj_420 (24 June 2008)

After a bit more digging around there could be significant extensions of the Myunah, Mannering and Mandalong resources into the Wyong LGA.

The Wallarah 2 deposit is more contentious with proposed mining under a large area of Wyong and North Wyong. This is the area been proposed by the WACJV, Wallarah Coal Joint Venture. I dont think CEY is involved in this particular area at all.

I actually think CEY has a good chance to getting a continuation of mining in these areas that have extensions into the Wyong LGA. I dont know if the Wallarah 2 mine will get off the ground as it has identified large amounts of the resource under residential.

The CEY deposit extensions however are primarily rural areas.


----------



## Atma (24 June 2008)

this stock is the best coal stock in the sector for the following reasons:

-port allocation-  CEY owns part of the Port kembla port and has unfettered access to this demurrage free port. Total capacity is approx 18mT of which CEY will export through it 5mT(equity share 3-4mT)

It also has 8% of the NCIG port which will be a demurrage free port as well

Newcastle (PWCS) port is also scheduled to expand to 140mpta and beyond for all producers in the region.

Port kembla coal terminal is also going to increase its capacity. So there is the potential for production upgrades long term.

-Mines - CEY has a lot of stakes in two regions - Western(Lithgow) Region and Newcastle province.

-Awaba East deposit - this is a massive semi soft coking(!) and thermal coal deposit. CEY has a port allocation of 5mT in the NCIG from 2012. Semi soft coking sells for about $250/t.

-Airly underground (100%) brownfields start-up- will add to Lithgow operations 1.5mpta

-Angus place East(50%)- massive exploration upside here too.

-Neubeck's open cut project (100%)- another incremental addon

-Wolgan's road deposit - another incremental

-Springvale increase in exports

-Mandalong expansions , large 5mpta producer.


total by 2015, it will have over 15mpta exports. @ $150/t this is worth over $2bn in revenues.


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## dj_420 (28 June 2008)

We also saw an increase in coal prices yesterday, CEY well positioned to take advantage of these increases, here is the Comsec market bulletin on this:



> Point of view: Coal prices hit record highs
> Coal has been the best performing commodity this year, even outpacing oil gains.
> The Newcastle Global thermal coal price has hit a fresh
> record high reaching USD 172 a tonne – a 100% increase in
> ...


----------



## agro (3 July 2008)

pitty about the coal prices but that's only temporary to cool things off imo..

other than that, the director acquired 666,666 shares on the 30th of June which is promising..


----------



## agro (9 July 2008)

dj_420 - where r ya?! all CEY holders?!

anyone want to explain what's going on 

getting sold off massively


----------



## michael_selway (9 July 2008)

agro said:


> dj_420 - where r ya?! all CEY holders?!
> 
> anyone want to explain what's going on
> 
> getting sold off massively




Aye, its still going ok!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 6.5 17.1 58.3 72.2 
DPS 4.9 10.0 20.0 28.4 *











thx

MS


----------



## white_goodman (9 July 2008)

agro said:


> pitty about the coal prices but that's only temporary to cool things off imo..
> 
> other than that, the director acquired 666,666 shares on the 30th of June which is promising..




however based upon that number its the devil so maby not...

im looking to buy in around the 18th me thinks


----------



## dj_420 (9 July 2008)

agro said:


> dj_420 - where r ya?! all CEY holders?!
> 
> anyone want to explain what's going on
> 
> getting sold off massively




Yeah I am still on board, didnt really have a chance to sell before a massive slump. I am on board at a good price so Ill stick it out.

The sell down in coal stocks has been overdone IMO, especially good ones already in production.

Anyone else still holding?


----------



## Julia (16 July 2008)

The new issue announcement today is having a negative effect on SP it seems.
Does anyone know the reason for this new issue?


----------



## dj_420 (16 July 2008)

Julia said:


> The new issue announcement today is having a negative effect on SP it seems.
> Does anyone know the reason for this new issue?




Its the dividend reinvestment program, I have elected to recieve my dividends that way, extra shares without brokerage costs or taxes (until you sell).


----------



## michael_selway (16 July 2008)

dj_420 said:


> Yeah I am still on board, didnt really have a chance to sell before a massive slump. I am on board at a good price so Ill stick it out.
> 
> The sell down in coal stocks has been overdone IMO, especially good ones already in production.
> 
> Anyone else still holding?




Yep I, others ones liek NHC & AQA could be a good to look at soon

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 6.5 17.1 58.3 76.0 
DPS 4.9 10.0 20.0 28.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## Julia (17 July 2008)

DJ, does the issue of shares to cater for the DRP usually have this sort of negative effect on the SP?   CEY is just not looking good.
Anyone else have any knowledge of why FLX, e.g. has still been rising, but CEY is wallowing?


----------



## noirua (6 August 2008)

CEY have reduced debts over the past year from $271 million to $149 million and the recent share issue will help reduce this further and push on on further developments.
The company had to sell their Anvil Hill interest to Xstrata due to heavy debt pressures and there appears no way the Directors will put themselves in this position again.
Annual coal sales reached 15.4 million tonnes and this is a good level of production.
Looking good value, imho, and I added just a few yesterday.


----------



## singlefished (13 August 2008)

Ouch! Only a few short weeks ago we were sitting pretty up over the $6 mark, and today we saw it drop below $4.

Still sitting above my buy in though but after watching the >80% "paper" gain drop back to <15% it is a bit demoralising 

Anybody have any good news? or is no news good news? There's not been any company announcements for a few weeks so I'm assuming it's sentimental reaction to (or the crushing reality of) this commodities downturn we're all experiencing.

Or was the build up to a >$6 tag just temporary parking for the many $$$$ that were pulled from other areas of the market over the last few (many) months?

Cheers,
Scotty....


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## dj_420 (20 August 2008)

CEY is looking very well placed in comparison to other producers, 20 mt ROM for the last year to date, compared to MCC who had close to 4 mt ROM and the MCC market cap is 2.7 billion compared to CEY 2 billion.

Great results today anyway, nice dividend, anyone else still holding?


----------



## noirua (20 August 2008)

dj_420 said:


> CEY is looking very well placed in comparison to other producers, 20 mt ROM for the last year to date, compared to MCC who had close to 4 mt ROM and the MCC market cap is 2.7 billion compared to CEY 2 billion.
> 
> Great results today anyway, nice dividend, anyone else still holding?



CEY seems to still be suffering from the hangover of the previous weight of debt and lack of confidence brought about after selling Anvil Hill, which has a new name now. Companies, such as Felix Resources, will not reach the production of Centennial until at least 2012.

ROM production can be misleading, however, as it is a mix of rocks and other matter. So, the cleaner the coal is made, at the mine, the better. Far less waste in transporting and the coal sells for higher prices. Still a lot more for CEY to do in improvements here, that will eventually boost profits still further.


----------



## noirua (22 August 2008)

Everything set fair for booming Centennial: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRcAzcvoGD08


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## dj_420 (29 August 2008)

CEY starting to look very good in comparison to MCC, CEY had profit of $68 million with PE of 7.48 whilst in comparison to MCC who posted profit of $72 million but currently on PE of around 51, these PE ratio just going by Comsec latest figures.

Certainly makes CEY look very good in driving seat for coal mining company considered to be small to mid cap.


----------



## michael_selway (14 September 2008)

dj_420 said:


> CEY starting to look very good in comparison to MCC, CEY had profit of $68 million with PE of 7.48 whilst in comparison to MCC who posted profit of $72 million but currently on PE of around 51, these PE ratio just going by Comsec latest figures.
> 
> Certainly makes CEY look very good in driving seat for coal mining company considered to be small to mid cap.




yeak still looks good

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 79.5 65.8 86.1 93.1 
DPS 21.0 32.9 41.0 47.0 *







thx

MS


----------



## noirua (16 September 2008)

A very good performance by CEY to wipe their face at $5.00. Very strong put through and should be a very interesting hold from here.


----------



## michael_selway (18 September 2008)

noirua said:


> A very good performance by CEY to wipe their face at $5.00. Very strong put through and should be a very interesting hold from here.




Hi yep CEY is doing well 

*CEY- Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 79.5 65.8 86.2 94.0 
DPS 21.0 33.3 47.8 47.0 *

*ERA - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 41.7 48.6 90.2 170.5 
DPS 20.0 21.3 64.0 91.5 *


Thx MS



> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24362479-5005200,00.html
> 
> Resources are no safe haven, says JPMorgan
> 
> ...


----------



## noirua (18 September 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi yep CEY is doing well
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2008 2009 2010 2011
> ...



Interesting article, cheers. Maybe I should have bought more CEY and not MCC. There we goes.  Somehow I think, imho, all coal stocks and mining stocks in Aus are dirt cheap at the moment.


----------



## noirua (7 October 2008)

Sorry to make similar posts on coal stocks, but as soon as CEY reached $3.00 it was time to forget the financial turmoil and add a few more. The yield nearing 7% and should hold Centennial up as people notice and see, the coal sector is mostly damaged at the steel making end.
Fair enough, Europe is expecting a downturn in car sales of around 20% and this needs to be factored into future coking coal prices. CEY has mostly thermal coal though.


----------



## noirua (25 November 2008)

The view of the analysts on Centennial Coal Ltd.,
http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/analysis.asp?s=AU:CEY


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## noirua (2 December 2008)

Suncorp Medway increased their holding in Centennial Coal from 5.0669% to 6.0862%. Therefore I've added just a few at this low price hoping we're near the bottom now. PE ratio and earnings yield are looking favourable for those of us who keep the faith that profits and dividends will drop less than the market seems to think.


----------



## noirua (28 January 2009)

A bit of a puzzle are the second quarter results from Centennial and profits are difficult to work out.  Will have to wait until next month.
Coal sales are down between 8% and 12%.  Sale of 82% of Tahmoor boosted results last year and without that boost this year, the dividend being retained at present levels must be in doubt.


----------



## mitch87 (28 January 2009)

noirua i see you have made posts on a couple of coal stocks, which one do you think is the best and do you currently hold any of them if you dont mind me asking, cheers.


----------



## michael_selway (28 January 2009)

noirua said:


> A bit of a puzzle are the second quarter results from Centennial and profits are difficult to work out.  Will have to wait until next month.
> Coal sales are down between 8% and 12%.  Sale of 82% of Tahmoor boosted results last year and without that boost this year, the dividend being retained at present levels must be in doubt.




Hey CEY did pretty well today

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 16.5 47.9 40.2 60.1 
DPS 21.0 24.6 21.0 29.0 *



> Date: 28/1/2009
> Author: Jamie Freed
> Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 21
> The discrepancy in the demand and prices paid for coking as opposed to thermalcoal is widening, and has ramifications for Australian-listed groups MacarthurCoal and Centennial Coal. The latter produces the thermal coal for power plantsthat has not experienced the same weakening in demand as the coking coalrequired by the troubled steel sector. As a consequence, Centennial'soutput is up and that of Macarthur down. On 27 January 2009 the respectivestocks closed $A0.01 higher at $A2.34 and $A0.05 lower at $A2.91









thx

MS


----------



## noirua (28 January 2009)

mitch87 said:


> noirua i see you have made posts on a couple of coal stocks, which one do you think is the best and do you currently hold any of them if you dont mind me asking, cheers.



Hi mitch87, All the coalminers have Quarterly and Half yearly results out this January and February, and it may be best to wait and see what the Half Yearly Reports bring. 

I follow shipping out of all of the ports in NSW and QLD and there is a confusing picture emerging. This could be that clients are running down their stocks of PCI and coking coal, as they are cash strapped or feel there are better deals down the line.
Until this position works itself out the picture is very foggy indeed.

Giving a view of the best stock in the sector is like taking a punt in the dark, and as I keep 70% - 80% of my money in cash and short term bonds/treasuries, my risk could be different to your own.


----------



## mitch87 (29 January 2009)

thanks for that noirua, although at the dangerous end of the risk scale i am playing the coal sector atm. I have been tracking FLX of late but as they have not yet informed the market of a decrease in their coal shipments this may come out in their upcoming quarterly report. im happy to sit out this one and see what happens.cheers


----------



## michael_selway (29 January 2009)

mitch87 said:


> thanks for that noirua, although at the dangerous end of the risk scale i am playing the coal sector atm. I have been tracking FLX of late but as they have not yet informed the market of a decrease in their coal shipments this may come out in their upcoming quarterly report. im happy to sit out this one and see what happens.cheers




Well CEY has doen well in the last few days

Main reason is Thermal Coal remaining strong while Coking Coal demand falling sharply. So it appears if these companies can switch their production to produce more of the former and less of the latter, then they will do well etc

thx

MS


----------



## gfresh (18 February 2009)

Whacked -22.27% today after half-year profits announced. Looks like many large holders were none too happy with it as well!

Underlying NPAT: $50.7M
After failed exchange hedging: $42.7M

Basic EPS: 12cps

Interim Dividend: 7cps fully franked

Looks like EPS for the full year may only be in the low 20's if similar results are achieved in the second half. This seems to be way under the lower case forecasts of 40cps.


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## Boggo (18 February 2009)

Another one of many accurate stock behaviour observations in a difficult trading environment, well done Nick.


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## nulla nulla (18 February 2009)

Seems over sold to me, but I could be biased because I hold. As I understand it thay sell a huge proprotion of their coal to the NSW power stations and most of their Domestic and International production is locked into advance orders. Correct me if I am wrong, by all means.


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## noirua (18 February 2009)

noirua said:


> Hi mitch87, All the coalminers have Quarterly and Half yearly results out this January and February, and it may be best to wait and see what the Half Yearly Reports bring.
> 
> I follow shipping out of all of the ports in NSW and QLD and there is a confusing picture emerging. This could be that clients are running down their stocks of PCI and coking coal, as they are cash strapped or feel there are better deals down the line.
> Until this position works itself out the picture is very foggy indeed.
> ...



After today's 22% fall it shows how waiting for the half yearly report was important.

Half Year Results Presentation: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090218/pdf/31g3khx22pbkxz.pdf


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## noirua (18 February 2009)

noirua said:


> After today's 22% fall it shows how waiting for the half yearly report was important.
> 
> Half Year Results Presentation: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090218/pdf/31g3khx22pbkxz.pdf



At first glance it looks as if these are excellent results for Centennial Coal with profits up 52% and dividend at 7c against 4c last time. However, this is not the case as confidence has slipped on looking deeper.

A hedging loss of $42.7m is not good news and deeper in the results an $18.7m, not yet taken, loss on coal swaps that will not be completely closed out until the end of calender year 2009. 
ROM production is down 8% and sales 12%. 
Due to sales of Anvil Hill and Austral Coal the $223.2m received in 2008 boosted EY to 78.3c and is down to 12c this time in 2009.
Assets now sit at $1,197,700,000 against $1,523,300,000 last time.
Centennial will have to rely more on thermal coal sales as PCI and semi-soft sales are very weak, along with prices.


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## Nero64 (5 March 2009)

Anyone think this stock can regain its former glory above the $5. I bought this stock more than a year ago and watch it almost double my buying price but I didn't sell. I am new to this game so please forgive me. 

Anyway have you noticed how this stock will spike $1 - $2 in a few days. Maybe not now but it was doing it frequently during the year. Who was buying it. Surely people believe in it. I read from Smart Investor Mag ( Hey don't knock it as that mag made me $1500 on Tiaro coal CFDs- TCL) that a lot of the big institutions like it. 

Around new year 08/09 it lept $1.30 to $3.50. - Maybe super funds sureing up their balance sheets. 

I made the mistake of buying more shares just before its half yearly anouncement as I thought it would be good. They sort of hyped it up before hand - Eg live webcast etc and I was in complete shock when it fell 40-50c the day after. Come on its results weren't that bad. 

It's not a dog it should float when the rest of the market goes up in a few years time. 

Thoughts?


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## noirua (5 March 2009)

Centennial Coal has quite a lot going on and until they are able to be valued on coal production and proper sales, excluding these misleading ROM figures, they are only for those who are able to research deeply and understand.

Do you believe this increase in dividend to 7c from 4c is likely to be a continued trend and are they properly afforded in the long term? 

If you think coal prices are going to bounce in late 2009 then Centennial are probably cheap, imho.  What happens if thermal coal prices continue to tank though?

Present thermal coal price at Newcastle, 3 months delivery spot, is US$62.17: Down from the agreed US$125 per tonne in April last and a peak of US$194 a tonne last July.  Exchange rate was AU$1.07 to the greeenback in April 08 and at AU$1.566 today, needs to hold at these low rates to help Centennial.


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## michael_selway (6 March 2009)

noirua said:


> Centennial Coal has quite a lot going on and until they are able to be valued on coal production and proper sales, excluding these misleading ROM figures, they are only for those who are able to research deeply and understand.
> 
> Do you believe this increase in dividend to 7c from 4c is likely to be a continued trend and are they properly afforded in the long term?
> 
> ...




Hi Noirua, do you hold any CEy shares atm?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 16.5 24.2 23.2 34.9 
DPS 21.0 13.5 13.0 22.0 *


thx

MS


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## Nero64 (6 March 2009)

Up 3.5c today in a down market. I suspect people are accumulating for the 7c interim div. Then once ex cya baby. Predicatable. I suppose the trick is to get out before it falls back below the buying price. How can you if it opens 20c down....hmmmm


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## noirua (9 March 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Hi Noirua, do you hold any CEy shares atm?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS



Yes m_s, I hold CEY shares bought in 3 small parcels, all the way down in fact.  Only coal shares I got out of in time were PRC and COK.  Hopeful as ever - noi


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## Nero64 (10 March 2009)

Ever feel CEY is getting the wrong end of the stick. 

A report in the newspapers on the lowering prices of coking coal

NHC also a thermal coal producer goes up 15c today 

CEY goes down 13c. 

CEY owns 13 mines. It's Australia's largest independent coal producer. It has a steady stream of income as being a provider for the NSW government. 

NPAT was at 50.7 mill.

NHC NPAT was 90.68 mill in Sept last year. 

CEY pays a better dividend

Both have similar coal outputs from their mines ( correct me if wrong )

I think CEY will have re-bargain the bulk of it's after 1 April when the new price bargaining occurs. 

CEY price won't be helped by the carbon credit introduction either. 

Do you ever get the feeling you've bought into the wrong coal company.

Oh yes I wasn't complaining when the price went up to 6.40. Why didn't I sell? because like you all who own this stock, I believed in the continuing mining boom.


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## Nero64 (6 April 2009)

Anybody know why this stock has been going up recently? Up today 8.5%. 

hope it continues for another day or so atleast.


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## Nero64 (23 April 2009)

Again sold of today. Down 8% at the moment. The news that came out is not that bad at all and sort of expected. 



> Full year earnings for Centennial Coal Company Ltd are likely to be at the lower end of expectations, the mining company says in its latest quarterly report.
> 
> Centennial Coal on Thursday reported coal sales of four million tonnes in its March 2009 quarter, up 21 per cent on the same period a year ago.
> 
> ...




Disappointing to say the least. Should've sold at $6.20


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## Steven12 (16 June 2009)

To all those who said they should have sold at 6 dollar range, obviously everyone should have a target range to sell when share a bought, and vice versa, the key is sticking with your targets and not get greedy.


CEY has made a comeback from the low 1.70 and I will call that a bottom and won't be retested. I think it's intrinsic value stands at around 2.50 -3.00 dollars and any anything over 3 dollars people will be paying a premium for this company, already the PE ratio is getting uncomfortably high at 17-18 range and is way above all ords, so unless there is significant growth expected for this company, I don't think it deserves this PE ratio, but then investors are not always rational.

I think fundamentally, the company earnings will do well with coking coal slump easing and therefore raising thermal coal prices, albeit it will be a slow process and global demand for manufacturered goods hasn't truly picked up, and is predicted by many to be a slow and long process since people are now in a savings mentality.

Again I think if the share fall back to 2.00 - 2.50 it will be a good buy in the long term, the market condition isn't as grim as it was before. and I think with companies thats in the business of selling commodities, I think fundamental analysis is much more rational than technical.


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## sidious (16 June 2009)

CEY forum has been quiet for sometime. Though I look up on it and the comments by other ASF members. Kudos to Noirua for his insights and links to the coal price. It helped me a lot in investing and trading.

I hold CEY. This is my first share purchase ever. First it dropped 8% last January. I purchased a more when it dropped to 1.6 and 1.8. I've been tempted to sell when they released a report last April. But decided not to. I don't know why but maybe out of love.  And with all the mergers and takeovers around, I'm betting that they are a target.

Sometimes I think why not FLX or MCC? But CEY is far more cheaper and I don't believe that coking coal will recover soon. At least, thermal coal will have a demand even if there is a recession.

Good luck to us all.


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## sidious (16 June 2009)

BTW, Xstrata's coal mine in the Hunter Valley will close this year according to reports. Would anybody have an insight as to the effect it would have to CEY? Thanks


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## noirua (16 June 2009)

sidious said:


> BTW, Xstrata's coal mine in the Hunter Valley will close this year according to reports. Would anybody have an insight as to the effect it would have to CEY? Thanks



Hi sidious, As far as I know.  The UCC mine is due to close in March 2010 and is positioned near Singleton to the North West of the Newcastle Port. 
Centennial's mines are to the South West of Newcastle at Lithgow and South East at Newstan and near Mandalong. This is on a different rail line and should not effect the company.


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## sidious (17 June 2009)

I see. I thought that Xtrata's closure would have a positive impact on CEY.
I thought it would be whacked further today. Hopefully a change of direction for this tomorrow.


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## noirua (17 June 2009)

sidious said:


> I see. I thought that Xtrata's closure would have a positive impact on CEY.
> I thought it would be whacked further today. Hopefully a change of direction for this tomorrow.



Felix Resources are due to up production from their Ashton underground mine (60% owned) sometime in 2010, from the present production level around 3mtpa to 6.5mtpa.  So it would seem that FLX are the main beneficiary's from this as their mine is on the same rail line into the Newcastle Port and is also in the same place at Singleton in the Hunter. 
Felix also have a 15.4% interest in the new terminal at Newcastle, on Kooragang Island, and are well placed to negotiate shipping from there.
Centennial have an 8.79% interest in NCIG.


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## sidious (20 June 2009)

Even if the plan is to hold this lng term, I still feel I should have sold at $3.0 and above. 

And last Friday was an example of the days when you feel you bought the wrong company. FLX and MCC up while CEY was down. Any chartists working on CEY? Any reason for the drop?


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## Nick Radge (20 June 2009)

From last Monday's reviews...







*Bottom Line  
15/6:*
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: n/a

*Video Analysis *
Watch Video Analysis

*Technical Discussion 
15/6:
LAYMANS: *
It has been a while since we had a look at CEY. In fact back at the beginning of March where we were looking for one last probe lower although we highlighted that the multi year support at $1.50 would be a key level. With the help of the global equity market turnaround this area of support did indeed hold firm. Price has had a strong move higher, in fact rising 113% in those three months or so, which even though seems impressive needs to be kept in perspective as the stock did lose over 76% in value from those 26thJune highs. So where to from now? We can only see any move higher as a correction to the main trend which has been clearly down, but having said that there is nothing wrong with jumping on a short term trend, irrespective of the longer term outlook. Friday was a poor day; a probe higher met with strong selling and a close near the day’s lows; today followed on in a similar vein with another push higher, only to again close on the lows of the day. There are certainly sellers willing to offload at these levels which looks likeky to weigh on price and keep weakness at the forefront, possibly to around the $2.50 area in the short term. We should see renewed strength come in then and just exceed Fridays highs at $3.22, before another retracement commences. 
*
TECHNICAL:*
From an Elliott wave perspective we have some nice clear patterns to work with. We have an obvious 5-wave impulse higher terminating at the wave-(1) or -A high, followed by the typical 3-wave counter move to wave-(2) or -B. Although this is a little deeper than we would like it's still the headline pattern. From here price certainly starts to impulse higher very strongly where it appears after seeing waves-1, -2 and -3 subdivided into a new impulse pattern. Wave-3 looks to have completed. We can be confident that the move north terminated on Friday as we have our old favourite bearish divergence showing again; prices making a higher high while our indicator makes a secondary high. That combined with weak closes is *a very strong indication that we will now see a pause at the very least, although more likely a pull back to the retracement zone*.  From a volume perspective (not shown) we need this to follow on from today and decline in line with prices which would be a very bullish proposition for the medium term outlook.

*Trading Strategy 
15/6:*
Nothing goes up in a straight line and any pause here could set up a great short term trade for a swing trader. indeed there could be a few short term opportunities here, firstly trading the smaller degree wave-5 but more importantly the larger degree wave-(5) which is the preferred option.  I certainly favour the more bullish count but we’ll see how prices react in the next week or two and re-assess then. If we are to see an A-B-C correction, which is highly probable, don't forget to read our new article, "Trading A-B-C Patterns" in the Resource Library.


_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


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## sidious (22 June 2009)

Thanks Nick. Your charts and comments is somewhat enlightening.
I've held onto CEY since January this year and buying everytime it's down. Almost 6 months now. I may as well enjoy the ride and see where this leads me.

Who knows, maybe my accumulation would lead me to become a  company director and join CEY's board. Good for my resume, then be invited to join BHP or RIO's board. Or even TLS. And be given a $2M golden handshake. Or be able to establish Sidious and Pink (like Babcock and Brown) and suck people's hard earned money.

Back to work. It's Monday!


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## sidious (1 July 2009)

Another disappointing day for CEY today. I was expecting it to be up for today due to the price of coal above $70. Was it just market sentiment or was it something else. 

I don't know whether to dollar average it at this price since in my mind the SP can fall down much more like March-April prices. 

Any thoughts out there? Maybe something that we mere mortals don't know


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## oldblue (1 July 2009)

sidious said:


> Another disappointing day for CEY today. I was expecting it to be up for today due to the price of coal above $70. Was it just market sentiment or was it something else.
> 
> I don't know whether to dollar average it at this price since in my mind the SP can fall down much more like March-April prices.
> 
> Any thoughts out there? Maybe something that we mere mortals don't know




Just a suggestion but if I thought there was a fair chance of the SP falling to March-April prices I'd wait until it established an uptrend before buying more.
Unless, of course, I had a great track record of bottom-picking.


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## sidious (1 July 2009)

I think I will just wait before I buy more. I don't have a good talent for bottom picking. What I notice is that if I sell, the SP goes up and if I buy the SP goes down. Hmmm... I hope I'm not alone.


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## Steven12 (4 July 2009)

> I think I will just wait before I buy more. I don't have a good talent for bottom picking. What I notice is that if I sell, the SP goes up and if I buy the SP goes down. Hmmm... I hope I'm not alone.




The number of time I hear people giving that comments.......  I think it's anchoring effect, people don't take notice when if it was the opposite, but when shares dive after buying, it registers and people complain.


CEY has come down quite abit from the 3.15 to 2.36 now, right now I think its in the support zone so if it does fall to 2.20 it will be an attractive buy, certainly the fact the got their recent new mine permits with generate synergies with their existing coal mines will paint a brighter future.



By the way, does anyone know a good site for tracking spot thermal coal prices? thx


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## michael_selway (22 July 2009)

Steven12 said:


> The number of time I hear people giving that comments.......  I think it's anchoring effect, people don't take notice when if it was the opposite, but when shares dive after buying, it registers and people complain.
> 
> 
> CEY has come down quite abit from the 3.15 to 2.36 now, right now I think its in the support zone so if it does fall to 2.20 it will be an attractive buy, certainly the fact the got their recent new mine permits with generate synergies with their existing coal mines will paint a brighter future.
> ...




http://www.globalcoal.com/



> http://www.businessspectator.com.au...brewing-pd20090722-U6TR5?opendocument&src=rss
> 
> Over in coal, the Financial Review has reported talk that Thailand's PTT could make a bid for Centennial Coal, which yesterday saw 3.45 million shares change hands. Shenhua Coal and Yangzhou Coal were also named as possible bidders for the thermal coal miner, which is the New South Wales electricity industry's chief supplier, and a key exporter to power stations across East Asia.









thx

MS


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## sidious (30 July 2009)

CEY's been getting good runs lately. Are we seeing $4.00 anytime soon?

Seems like it's one of the few coal miners left to run hard. MCC, FLX, GCL all have come out of their all time lows and gaining strength. I wonder why CEY takes a long time. Patience is going to be tested on this one.


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## Steven12 (7 August 2009)

One thing that does concern me is the amount of share dilution that has took place over the last 10 years.  A tenfold increase.


I don't know how much capital raising they have done in the past but 10x increase seems to me a bit too excessive......

Anyone have a view on this?


I do not believe it would hit 4.00 dollars anytime because that would put CEY at an unrealistic P/E ratio, I think thermal coal market is going to stabilize this financial year but they outcome for CEY would depend on the export market


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## gfresh (14 August 2009)

Large 11% rise today.. and highest price since the start of the year. 

Possibly some shifting out of Felix and into Centennial ?


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## pacestick (23 August 2009)

Centennial Coal to begin exporting from Mandalong mine in 2010
21 August 2009 Print this article Comments Share this article

CENTENNIAL Coal has announced that is plans to commence exporting coal from its Mandalong mine in early-2010.

Managing director Bob Cameron says Mandalong had a record year, 4.9 million tonnes, and claims it will do better again this year.

The mining company will export through the Port of Newcastle after the completion of a new haul road in March.

Centennial Coal expects to be exporting coal from Mandalong from April.


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## noirua (2 September 2009)

pacestick said:


> Centennial Coal to begin exporting from Mandalong mine in 2010
> 21 August 2009 Print this article Comments Share this article
> 
> CENTENNIAL Coal has announced that is plans to commence exporting coal from its Mandalong mine in early-2010.
> ...




Centennial still have a lot going for them in the future but the share price has come up a long way and I've decided to dispose of my holding on China rumours of cutbacks of imports. Hope it carries on up for everyone.


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## Miro (17 October 2009)

*Centennial Coal Company Limited Updates On Litigation*

Centennial Coal Company Limited announced that the NSW Court of Appeal has upheld a decision of the Supreme Court handed down in August 2009. That earlier decision determined that certain undertakings in the Anvil Hill Asset Sale Deed (Asset Sale Deed) with respect to Centennial Coal Company Limited’s interests in Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group (NCIG) will remain on foot for the time being. The decision means that Centennial Coal Company Limited is required to make port capacity at NCIG available in the future for Xstrata’s Mangoola Project (formerly Anvil Hill), a greenfield development. 

Link: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?rpc=66&symbol=CEY.AX&timestamp=20091016064700

CEY down 6c or 1.80% to $3.27 on Friday


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## Logique (16 December 2009)

Proceeding very nicely thanks very much. 
Wondering if this represents a breakout from the range of recent months. On the weekly data in the chart - a fair likelihood going by the tech indicators. Been trying to find out if there was anything else behind the surge of recent days.


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## skip9 (15 January 2010)

Strong Run from CEY of late. Whats to come from then in the future? How much more is it possible to rise? Is coal a strong sector for growth in 2010?


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## Annwn (17 January 2010)

I agree CEY certainly has had a good run up from a breakout at 3.60, I sold on 12/1 as had reached my target of 4.20, which was selected as it was just below the Oct 08 high.

As from here, I will keep watch as the area of 4.50 onwards there is a alot of choppy price action from the highs of 08


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## pacestick (4 April 2010)

CEY has been rising steadily after the peabody bid for MCC  It is seeen by many as another potential takeover  target along with WHC  .However even without the takeover premium CEY would seem to have a good future.The( NCIG is now operating Cey a partner) The company is expanding production to increase their overseas sales and take advantage of the strong demand in china in particular. The contracts with NSW government for coal to fire the electicity generators are due to come up  for renegotiation over the next few years starting i believe this year While any company can bid at the moment CEY owns the infrastructure to the generators  and the price obtained should rise to take into account the increase in coal prices since  the original contract

                    DYO please do not rely on me


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## countryboy (5 April 2010)

media are certainly letting consumers know price rises are coming. My understanding is thet CEY have a large % tied up with contracts to NSW generators. I think we could see quite a price rise for power if current coal prices are maintained well above the $100 mark

my interest with CEY is for its takeover vulnerability. Underperforming due to current contract prices and hence a SP that reflects this.
I enjoyed a wonderful ride with Gloucester.first with Noble and then the next crew $3.60 to selling out above $9

more of the same please


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## noirua (6 April 2010)

I sold Centennial in early September last year and it proved to be quite a bit early.
CEY sold Anvil Hill to Xstrata when pressured for cash and that move looks now to have been unfortunate. 
Prices are high in this sector, though Centennial look to be in the driving seat now. Don't forget, 'Ice Road Truckers', it is that dangerous and the ice could give way anytime.


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## vincent191 (19 April 2010)

CEY has long term contracts to sell most of it's output to local power stations, does anyone know if the contracts have a rise & fall clause?  Will CEY be able to charge more because global prices have gone up?


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## vincent191 (20 April 2010)

Something going on???  Good movement in sp? Anyone heard any good rumours lately? Lots of action in the coal sector, flavour of the month. Continued strengthen in the next few days should wipe out the usually high number of short sellers (see ASX website.)


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## countryboy (20 April 2010)

I think i recall seeing that cey sells 30-35% of its coal to overseas markets remaining 70% is locked into local(NSW) power generators at a figure less than $100

380 mill shares and total proven coal resource of 2.3 bill
(hope these figures are correct ...memory is not that flash late at night)

Im on this and still to commit to at least two other coal stocks as potential TO targets


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## vincent191 (20 April 2010)

countryboy, cok one of your other targets? My question is CEY is, does CEY's domestic contracts have a rise & fall clause? Most people are focused on it's export, but if the domestic contracts prices have a rise & fall clause then if international prices go up then domestic prices should also go up??? Correct? If so then we can expect CEY earnings to go up.


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## Logique (21 April 2010)

Own and like CEY. 
As to the general strength in the coal sector, there are other positive background factors (aside from the whole takeover saga over at MCC) - general world economic recovery firing up buyer demand; and talk is starting up again about the long term commodities bull market; and the Reserve keeps saying that a partial rationale for increasing domestic interest rates is the expected ongoing strength in commodities prices and demand. 

It's just a sweet spot for the industry atm. Higher interest rates are driving the $AUD upward, notionally denting exporters earnings, but that's the beauty of CEY, it has strong domestic markets as already described by other posters.


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## Logique (3 May 2010)

We'll just have to see how how the proposed RSPT and various other macroeconomic, including sovereign, factors play out. 
Weak technical support at 4.00 is under pressure, below that 3.50 looks the next strongest daily level. It would be a big retrace if it falls that far. Technically the near term is anybody's guess.


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## pacestick (19 June 2010)

Aftet months of  algorithmic trading Banpu of Thailand has increased its holding in CEY to 19.89%. What is interesting is that in response to australian newspaper speculation that Banpu now has no  imediate plans  to purchase more shares in the company Banpu has asked  CEY to issue a copy of a letter from Banpu stating that that Banpu has not released any statements to that effect and the aforesaid reports should not be relied on. The letter in PDF form is on comsec sorry i could not down load it


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## vincent191 (5 July 2010)

Banpu has offered $6.20 and the CEY board has recommended shareholders accept this offer. 

What I don't understand is why are people selling for $5.80?? Aren't they giving away 40 cents if Banpu gets the required ownership percentage and FIRB approval??


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## blackjack (22 July 2010)

vincent191 said:


> Banpu has offered $6.20 and the CEY board has recommended shareholders accept this offer.
> 
> What I don't understand is why are people selling for $5.80?? Aren't they giving away 40 cents if Banpu gets the required ownership percentage and FIRB approval??




yes i dont understand this either
anyone knows anything
please advise
as my software still advises buying at $5.96


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## skc (22 July 2010)

blackjack said:


> yes i dont understand this either
> anyone knows anything
> please advise
> as my software still advises buying at $5.96




well... $6.2-5.96 = $0.24, or ~4%. If the transaction takes 6 months to complete then it might make sense (in terms of time value of money) to sell now below the bid price and look for opportunities elsewhere


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## vincent191 (22 July 2010)

Well, I sold mine. Guess a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Although some may argue one in the bush is better than two wanks in the hand.


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