# BTA - Biota Holdings



## tarnor (16 September 2005)

Couldn't see any posts on this so here goes

AFAIK
briefly: BTA get a royalty of a drug manufactured by GSK called relenza, which is one of 2 drugs which is effective in treating bird flu and suitable for stock piling .

BTA is currently sueing GSK for not adequately 
promoting relenza for the amount of 308m - 400m | next step is mediation phase that occurs 25 november, I'm guessing this is where you migth settle out of court? BTA has a market cap of roughly 120m

BTA case must be looking alot more solid now since everyone is desperate to stockpile in case of a bird flu outbreak..

not to long ago BTA were trading at 50c first they announced reports of germany stockpiling relenza then a few days later confirmed it. 

over the weekend thier was press about holland also  stockpiling relenza, bta announced this to the market monday where yet to have a confirmation.

i was going to sell my holding today if it weakened around 95 and didnt look like it would hold but buyers kept coming in.  I'm presuming traders have the same reluctance to sell that i do knowing thiers a confirmation with order quantities to come. Also new orders could come in at any time. Everyone is paniced about bird flu - its such hypy goodness. Even thought this is a bio in a neglected sector BTA keeps chomping on

It seems that USA is also possibly stockpiling relenza, bta heven't mentioned this yet so its only speculation. 

I'm trying to pick an exit but i'd guess the TA is looking good for another run north tommorow

the fact that all these potential orders are looming and the massive amounts of bird flu in the press is enough to keep people from taking profits,  loks like agood combination of TA FA and the best of all hype! 

the major problem is the demand for stock piling is so great that production needs to be increased greatly...

I've been camping this for the retrace but it hasn't come yet.. anyone else following


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## canny (16 September 2005)

*Re: BTA biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Main thing I see as not correct there is that Relenza doesn't treat bird flu as such. It's an anti viral to help prevent human flu - which is a mutation of the avian flu virus. That is far more significant, as the World Health Organisation are urging all Governments to stock pile the anti viral flu drugs.
Not only that, but Biota are continuing in research and development of improved anti flu drugs - and will be expecting around $400m from Glaxo in the court case, which has been bolstered by the current scare of pandemic flu.
All in all - should hope to see it trading well over $1 over the next few weeks.


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## tarnor (16 September 2005)

*Re: BTA biota - is this a bio?? :/*

cheers thanks for the correction.

I bailed on the news today, expecting the sell off, i was hoping the news wouldn't come looked like it would have kept going..

tried to reenter after the selling and had a buy order just above the u buyer, then it got pulled so i also pulled my bid.  It held pretty well though.   I'm going to see what it does monday hopefully it goes back to the 80's briefly but if it goes north i'm back on. 

can't see this staying under a 1$ for much longer, exciting times ahead, thier complaint against gsk must be substanially stronger now..


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## krisbarry (16 September 2005)

*Re: BTA biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Now this stock has been flying of late. very impressive volume!


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## canny (24 September 2005)

*Re: BTA -surviving pandemic flu financially*

A relevant post 'taken' from another forum -
how to survive a pandemic flu financially:
This is from a CSL thread - but is also relevant to BTA - being in the game of fighting off the threat.

 Subject re: breaking out 

 I have put CSL warrants on watch and when the first announcement that the avian flu has gone to human to human I will hold only three things - NCM [gold], CSL [vaccine], and cash to capitalise on a market collapse.

The share buy back is helping but the avain flu will make CSL , not only will blood products be in demand but their vaccines especially. I suspect some punters are already positioning as a natural hedge.

Will avain flu pandemic happen ? The answer is 10% chance in next 18 mnths, and almost absolute certainty in next 15 yrs. Will it cause an absolute sh*t storm? - you bet if it happens in next 12mnths. Im pretty close to this one and it will not be pretty. The gnomes in Switzerland say if it happens soon it has a very good chance of causing financial market collapse as trade & business flows sieze up causing hedge funds flight to safety. The USD will not be considered safety, leaving gold. Financial institutions typically considered a reasonable safe harbour will be shunned.


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## tarnor (30 September 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

biota really moving today could see a close over 1.30..

nothing like doom and gloom, a bit of hype goes a long way..

i held this for a couple of days before they announced thier spp, at .76..  pretty much an offer to good to refuse.. hoping I qualified... shall see


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## farmboy (30 September 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

I'm loving this having bought in on Sept 20 just to qualify for the 76 cent offer.

Certainly did not expect this but even if todays burst turns out to be a dud I still think it is a good stock to hold.

Has gone so far to $1.40 - Snoopy dance!!


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## tarnor (30 September 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*



> I'm loving this having bought in on Sept 20 just to qualify for the 76 cent offer.




This was my confusion i had sold out before the sep 20 offer announcement and didn't reenter on that day because it takes 3 days to settle????. so you had to of bought earlier on the 16th and buying on the 20th would not make you eligible for spp??? not sure... 

i brought on the 13th sold on the 16th, so its up in the air for me.... but i think you had to of held at close of 16th...

oh well will soon find out


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## farmboy (30 September 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Just checked with the registry and you are quite right tarnor - I am down as becoming the owner on the 23rd. Still very pleased having got them at 96 cents and was counting on having to pay more as I had intended to buy anyway.


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## tarnor (30 September 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Yoinked this from ss courtesy trader10..



> Call to stockpile rival flu drug
> 
> Richard Gluyas
> September 28, 2005
> ...





This was posted in the australian today and would likely be why it has run so hard..

Lots more $$$'s for biota if relenza becomes more desirable..


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## tarnor (3 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

got the spp today even though i had sold on th 16th

looks like i still qualify for the full 5000$ of shares even though i was trading a tiny parcel half that. 

"directors reserve the right to close the offer early"

Have not had much experience with spp, does this mean that its first come first serve..?  ie you send of your cheque only to be told the offer has closed..


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## Kauri (3 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

In my experience if a SPP is oversubscribed then applications are scaled back.. i.e if you apply for the full$5000 worth you may only get $3000 worth of shares and a cheque for the balance not allocated. 

 The statement... "directors reserve the right to close the offer early" is in all SPP offers ...I see it as  more of a sales type pitch and don't let it influence my decision to participate or not.   Having said that ALN just closed their SPP in their spin off 3 days early.


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## farmboy (3 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

When I thought I would be eligible for the 76 cent deal I worked out that if each shareholder took up the offer (and you would have to be barking mad not to) he/she would get a maximum of about 2800 shares.

Pushing $2 a few minutes ago.


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## krisbarry (3 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Very Impressive run on this one, so much media hype over the weekend gives this one a free ride.  

Well done to all that hold.


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## tarnor (4 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

big pull back today, lots of profits being taken with alot of panic, i'm looking to jump in on close. love the volatility 

with the mediation phase for the proceedings against gsk in upcoming weeks thier should still be a lot of interest..


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## canny (4 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

I think we can feel pretty confident that some panic should have disappeared after todays frenzy. That was horrible. A steady rise would have been far more sustainable - and now we are on too many radars for the moment.
I did all right in the deal - sold out at 1.76 and have bought back at 1.65.
Will hold them now - and wait for the build up to happen again - which it will - just not sure of time frame.
A lot will depend on whether the co can confirm any of the new orders.
Their confirmation from Glaxo is very slow, which is why the media usually hears of a stockpile order before Biota does. Good news for us as traders - opportunity to buy a few extras to trade the news, while keeping a core holding.
The story hasn't changed - only the stupidity of a freak market setting unrealistic speed of rise. Hopefully it'll be 'steady as she goes' from now, with gentle rises! Here's hoping!


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## beagle666 (8 October 2005)

*biota... how far can it go?*

Hi all...

I am big on biota at the moment and am wondering if anyone has opinions they wanna share on this stock. How far can it go? should i get out now?
Cheers.

Another interesting stock isAgenix... anyone interested in that?


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## beagle666 (8 October 2005)

*BTA - Biota*

Recently recieved a spp offer for biota @76 cents. looks like a great offer given recent price movements of that stock. 

My question is can we assume that the price of biota will fall directly after the spp purchases due to profit taking. Should I be looking to offload immediately?

Any other opinions on the spp biota is offering? 

Cheers


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## pete152 (8 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Mate I do not know how far ir will go, which is why I just buy when it starts its run then sell when I have make enough for the day.

It could go far as there is a lot of panic about bird flu at the moment.

But i shall just do my buy then sell as soon as possible, works for me!!
Cheers
Peter


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## Knobby22 (8 October 2005)

*Re: Share purchase plans*

To me Biota is highly speculative.

Problems I can see-
CSL will have its bird vaccine available in a years time.
There is a competitor doing better than Relenza in the market.

Therefore the price could easily fall, I would at least sell half of the spp reasonably soon.


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## tarnor (8 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

gsk ramping up production, more sales, should be more buying on expectations of announcement, settlement with gsk possible soon also,  i'm hoping for a bit of a run on monday but will just go with the crowd, has been dead easy to trade this one


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## beagle666 (8 October 2005)

*Re: Share purchase plans*

thanks for the comment. The competitor is Tamiflu i think but resistance levels are high with this drug compared to relenza but i agree to  sell would be wise. i will still make a nice profit on the spp.
Cheers


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## Knobby22 (8 October 2005)

*Re: Share purchase plans*

They were more long term comments, beagle.
If the bird flu breaks out the price rise could be astronomical,
and you might make a big profit.....if you live through it.


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## tarnor (8 October 2005)

*Re: Share purchase plans*

I'm wondering the same thing.. whether to bail as soon as the new shares come on issue. was going to wait till closer to the deadline before i gave them my cash but bta has been flying.

if its fully subscribed most likely will not get the full alottment, if its only a couple of k spread across a lot of holders there probably won't be any great urgency to sell.  gsk and biota will be about to go to the mediation phase of their legal dispute also around the time the shares come on issue.  that could help persuade people not to sell... if there is a sell down it should come back quickly i'm guessing :/

thats my reasoning anyway, will have learnt something new by the end of it i'm sure.


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## Doctor Funko (9 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Anyone remember SARS? Big panic no outbreak, and the WHO were quite successful at containing it. Many experts say it may be many years if ever that we see a bird flu pandemic.  About a 10% chance in the next year I think was the figure?  Even if there is an outbreak, thankfully the world is better placed than ever to contain any emerging pandemic.  
Also, one big problem is that Relenza is a puffer, like an asthma puffer, rather than a tablet (or a syrup for kids) like Tamiflu.  As a doctor, I know that any flu can cause asthma like symptoms.  It is disturbing that Relenza can make asthma symptoms worse which is the exact opposite you'd want if someone was having flu in the lungs.  
Just a bit of perspective on this stock and the very speculative nature of it.


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## chansw (9 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*



			
				Doctor Funko said:
			
		

> Anyone remember SARS? Big panic no outbreak, and the WHO were quite successful at containing it. Many experts say it may be many years if ever that we see a bird flu pandemic.  About a 10% chance in the next year I think was the figure?  Even if there is an outbreak, thankfully the world is better placed than ever to contain any emerging pandemic.
> Also, one big problem is that Relenza is a puffer, like an asthma puffer, rather than a tablet (or a syrup for kids) like Tamiflu.  As a doctor, I know that any flu can cause asthma like symptoms.  It is disturbing that Relenza can make asthma symptoms worse which is the exact opposite you'd want if someone was having flu in the lungs.
> Just a bit of perspective on this stock and the very speculative nature of it.




Nature Medicine article - Relenza which can be found at http://www.biota.com.au/announcements/2005/nature_relenza.pdf
mentions the following:-

"Relenza has also been unpopular in part because it must be breathed in with an inhaler. GlaxoSmithKline is considering repackaging Relenza as a shot or nebulizer to increase sales."

Here are a few news on bird flu in the last 24 hours:

First bird flu cases reported in Europe

Indonesia says bird flu found in boy

Bird flu pandemic is a clear, if not present, danger


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## chansw (10 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Here is an updated article on bird flu in Europe

1st cases of bird flu in Europe confirmed


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## Aussiejeff (10 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

BTA UP 28%.

I bought previously at $1.92 and held on after it fell back.
Sold all today at $2.33 (happy, happy, joy, joy)
But, missed selling at top this morning of $2.52 (sad, sad)

;o)

Wonder what heights it might reach? Very volatile, seems a goodun' for intra-day trading...

Cheers,

AJ


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## pete152 (10 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Yes it is good for intra day trading, and easy. It must be easy,as even I can make money from it!!
Cheers,
Peter


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## britishcarfreak (10 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

I caught it at 1.66 last week when all the s**t was going down.  I jumped out today at 2.35 after the first peak at 2.50.  I feared I had missed the peak and then lo and behold it ran to 2.75ish.  Damn it.  Anyway - a near 40% run and I only held it since friday lunch time.  

Seems to drop away after massive profit taking by day traders to sainer levels - then a day or two later it settles out.  I'm guessing that we'll see it come back to about 2.20 or so in the next day or two.  I'm hoping to jump back in and ride up to 3.00 or so.

Where did that hepatitis product come from ?  I didn't see that announcement coming....


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## chansw (10 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*



			
				britishcarfreak said:
			
		

> I caught it at 1.66 last week when all the s**t was going down.  I jumped out today at 2.35 after the first peak at 2.50.  I feared I had missed the peak and then lo and behold it ran to 2.75ish.  Damn it.  Anyway - a near 40% run and I only held it since friday lunch time.
> 
> Seems to drop away after massive profit taking by day traders to sainer levels - then a day or two later it settles out.  I'm guessing that we'll see it come back to about 2.20 or so in the next day or two.  I'm hoping to jump back in and ride up to 3.00 or so.
> 
> Where did that hepatitis product come from ?  I didn't see that announcement coming....




A similar story for me. I bought it at $1.5 last Wednesday and sold this morning at $2.33. Only saw it went up to $2.5 and then $2.7 at about lunch time. However, I have to say that I am very happy for my return.   

You can find the hepatitis product here (which mentions $1 billion dollar market opportunity)

BioPartnering Europe Conference


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## tarnor (11 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

damn closing spp early.. i didnt have funds available so just got a mate to bpay it..  said it could take up to 2 days.. so looks like i'll be keeping my fingers crossed for a bit


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## Doctor Funko (11 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

certainly a very interesting couple of announcements yesterday which have made me change my mind about this stock, a once weekly anti flu puffer! wow thats amazing, thats a huge advantage over tamiflu, also the potential for antihepatitis drugs, this is something we really need (unlike another antiinflammatory!   )  as the current ones can really send people round the bend.  You really cant give current antihepatitis drugs to depressed or psychotic patients as the risk of suicide practically increases beyond the risk of the hepatitis.


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## Mouse (11 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Hi,

I'm new so sorry in advance if this is a dumb question ... but now that they are closing the offer earlier, does this mean that we will get the shares earlier as well or do we still have to wait until the end of October to get the shares?

cheers
Mouse


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## beagle666 (11 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Tarnor... saw your post re BPAY..... as long as you send the bpay payment by 5.00 on the 12th you are right. It does not have to be processed by the deadline, just sent.

I rang the registry about that.
Cheers


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## tarnor (11 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*



> Tarnor... saw your post re BPAY..... as long as you send the bpay payment by 5.00 on the 12th you are right. It does not have to be processed by the deadline, just sent.




cheers man..

I think i would have been alright anyway, i got it off before 1:30 which apparently means it get thiers the next day...

Had a few moments of panic though as when i saw the announcement i knew i wouldnt have time to wait the 3 days untill funds cleared from selling some other shares..  would have been a b!tch to miss out..

quickly find out how good your friends are, rang up a mate and he had payed it in 10 minutes or so..  he'll definately be getting some of the profits. 

hope it can hold at these levels, cant see it getting much below a 1.50 and will probably keep uptrending while all this hype is around.  althought market cap is getting pretty big now..


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## Doctor Funko (14 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

From The Age today
http://www.theage.com.au/news/world...s-way-to-europe/2005/10/13/1128796652006.html
"Bird flu's trail makes its way to Europe
By Radu Marinas
Bucharest
October 14, 2005

Bird flu vaccine 
EUROPEAN Union states should be ready for a potential flu pandemic and stockpile anti-viral drugs, the EU's health chief said yesterday after a strain of bird flu found in Turkey was confirmed as the same deadly type that hit Asia.

The executive European Commission said it was considering establishing a â‚¬1 billion ($A1.6 billion) "solidarity fund" to help fund the use of anti-virals in the event of a pandemic.

"What is important is that it does become a priority for all member states and that they make an investment for preparing for this event," EU Health and Consumer Protection Commissioner Markos Kyprianou told a news conference."

could see some more volatility


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## tarnor (17 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

There was a lot of articles out on the weekend about tamflu not being effective against certain strains of the virus..  . 

Fantastic opening today...


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## chansw (17 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*



			
				tarnor said:
			
		

> There was a lot of articles out on the weekend about tamflu not being effective against certain strains of the virus...
> 
> Fantastic opening today...




I read those articles, too. However, the following states why most countries still prefer stockpile Tamiflu.

"Tamiflu is the more popular choice for stockpiling because it is a tablet. Relenza is an inhaled powder and more complicated to administer in an emergency, says infectious-disease specialist Brian Currie of Montefiore Medical Center in New York."

tarnor, are you still holding the shares? I sold mine but will buy again.


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## tarnor (17 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

i'm out at the moment might come back in for another trade if it drops under 2$ again.

have the placement coming so still hope it goes..

it really doesn't  seem like gsk have done much promoting relenza, Alot people of people are fairly confident of an early settlement but could be a tedious drawn out legal battle..

so without some more clarity on the amount of orders and situation with gsk. i think it will be hard to get over the 3$,.. but anything could happen..


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## r_dream (17 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

bta is currently at about $2.40 is it worth buying in now? Is it likely to increase any further?


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## pete152 (17 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

What I am doing, as I have time, is watch it. When the volumesgap up and the price starts rising I buy and when it slows down, I sell.

It could take 10 minutes or two hours.

But that is how I do it and I am not advising any one to copy me.
Cheers,
Peter


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## tarnor (18 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

pretty hard to say what its worth when bta know about as much as we do in regards to stockpiling orders, unless gsk informs them.

possibly a big settlement with gsk soon might improve the fundamentals, untill more news probably just better trading it technically.

news today is relenza is going to also be manufactured here ramping up production for stockiling.  this might see some more rise today although i think where also coming close to t3's needing to exit after the last run...

relenza is finally getting alot more exposure in the media so most people will know the story now i believe


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## Doctor Funko (18 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

delving into the news about relenza there are a couple of important points that have completely changed my mind about this.
1. Resistance has occured with bird flu to Tamiflu, but not to Relenza
2. Tamiflu has been used fairly extensively in some Asian countries for normal flu, which is becoming more resistant to it. "18% of Japanese children developed resistance after being treated with Tamiflu for normal, seasonal flu. "http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-10/17/content_485580.htm  Relenza has hardly been used at all so far.
3.  The worry about a bird flu pandemic is that bird flu infects someone with normal flu in Asia which then mutates to a form capable of being transmitted from person to person.  If this occurs in Asia there is a good chance that it will be or become resistant to Tamiflu.

I am trying to get a little stockpile of Relenza without success for prophylaxis.  I am sure many other health professionals are trying to do the same or advising this to patients, especially travellers to Asia.  Believe me, any Relenza released for sale will be snapped up immediately at present, let alone if any pandemic results.  If a pandemic begins, and there is any Relenza around, you can be sure it will result in massive panic buying, with good reason.  What would you pay to save your child's life?  They could sell it for hundreds of dollars.  If you are on prophylaxis you could move around with confidence.  Those without will stay shut in their houses.  A country with adequate Relenza could continue to function in a pandemic.  A country without would face economic collapse.  This is, of course, if a pandemic occurs.


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## tarnor (18 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

thanks for posting Funko good to get a medical opinion



> As a doctor, I know that any flu can cause asthma like symptoms. It is disturbing that Relenza can make asthma symptoms worse which is the exact opposite you'd want if someone was having flu in the lungs.




Was wondering about this, given that it looks like relenza is becoming the choice over tamflu with the questions being based around its ease of use.  From the perspective of an asthmatic even with normal flu's my asthma goes to ****, and the usual seretide doesn't help much.  I can't help but think given this flu strains death rate an asthmatic would be pretty much a goner... :/ surely a reaction to the drug would be pretty minor?


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## Doctor Funko (18 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

it would be hard to treat flu in an asthmatic with Relenza although I agree with the massive 50% mortality rate with bird flu you would probably do so if tamiflu was not working (try tamiflu first, if resistance then relenza) but you might get around it by just increasing seretide adding atrovent and masses of ventolin until you turn the corner, or perhaps prednisolone.  However if as an asthmatic you were under good control and you havent got the flu yet, Relenza could be effectively used as a flu prophylactic/preventer and the hopefully minor additional worsening of asthma symptoms would be a small price to pay.  

Does anyone know how much they're ramping up production?  I think I heard it takes a while to produce relenza.  There would certainly be masses of demand, especially in Europe where it seems they're going crazy with bird flu panic.  Chances are more cases of tamiflu resistance will be reported soon, in which case there'll be a mad scramble for Relenza.


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## Doctor Funko (18 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

its ok just answered my own question
"Supply to a specific location or country will depend on when orders are placed and the size of those orders. We do not anticipate being in a position to deliver stock from the Boronia line to the global supply chain until mid 2006," http://www.theage.com.au/news/natio...bird-flu-effort/2005/10/18/1129401241829.html  I suppose its possible if people were willing to pay more this schedule could be accelerated?


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## tarnor (18 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1067610.html




> 0609 GMT [Dow Jones] Nomura upgrades GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to buy from neutral. Says the company is currently limited in the supply of antiviral Relenza to around 0.5M-1M treatments a year. But new data suggest the company could raise output to 41M treatment courses per annum by 2008. At an estimated price of $33 per course, this could deliver an additional $1.4B in annual revenue. Shares closed at 1,445p. (EXB)


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## beagle666 (18 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

can anyone tell me when spp shares for BTA will become available to those who took up the offer?


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## tarnor (18 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

most people seem think it will be around the 2nd of novemeber, can't be sooner even though it was closed early because they can only do one spp a year...


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## Doctor Funko (21 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

"In places such as China, drug resistance (Tamiflu)exceeded *70 percent*, suggesting that drugs like amantadine and rimantadine will probably no longer be effective for treatment or as a preventive in a pandemic outbreak of flu, the reports said."  "They urged drug manufacturers to make more effective versions of Relenza"  http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/09/30/birdflu.drugs.reut/
I just cant understand why
1.  More attention is not being focused on Relenza, and developing an IV version.
2.  The stock price keeps going south
3. Tamiflu production is being ramped up as orders flow in and Roche is licensing it to be put into larger scale production wiuth other companies.
Fat use this will be if a Tamiflu resistant pandemic takes off.  For the sake of human lives, more MUST be done to increase Relenza production.


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## tarnor (27 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

I agree Funko it seems GSK has done a remarkably poor job at marketing relenza.

News out today that GSK is looking to allow generic manufacturing of relenza to cope with demand, this was after talk of overriding patents....

Pretty happy that the SPP has only been slightly scaled back (100ish$ on 5000) in the asx release today.

As far as the selling goes over the last week or so i think people would have been bailing early prempting the new shares coming on issue.. Hasn't been a huge sell down on the news today which migth support that idea..

GSK results released tonight i think?...


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## ashu12 (28 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

really relenza is doing very well for the recovery of Bird Flu .Because it has very few side effects .Many of pharmaceutical companies are doing their best for this medication .Bird Flu causes due to influenza virus which is very harmful for us .This disease basically comes from birds .but it shown in human also with very serious form...
Please see the page below also...

http://www.drugdelivery.ca/s33713-s-RELENZA.aspx


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## Mortisha (30 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single50.asp?fid=1&tid=246746&sym=BTA&MSGNO=764196

http://www.advfn.com/stocks/healthcare-enterprise-group_10044761.html

suggest you bta wannabees look closely at the above ......lots a interest to the those with lights switched on

Lurch ; answer the door


----------



## amohonour (30 October 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Any way you look at it, the world wide problems will be never ending... a bit like throwing a pebble in a pond and the ripple just keeps going. Last thing on our minds will be money and the first thing will be survival > even if the govt stockpile there will be those who will take the risk and try and steal supplies and sell to the black market the world will possibly see its darkest hour for a long time. As frightening as it is have we forgotten how many are already dying from cancer everyday? Do the sums, yet we have learnt to live with that. Humans though we could all be affected in some way IF this breaks out are an amazingly adaptable being. WE WILL SURVIVE though touched in someway. The question is are we prepared for what comes next ?


----------



## canny (1 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - Relenza story keeps growing*

USA releases figures today (Wednesday our time probably) of how they are spending their massive budget on bird flu prevention.
Relenza is expected to get a decent chunk of the action, as anti viral stockpiling is still considered the best in the first line of medical defence.

Keep an eye on CNN news pages for the updates - but that's probably why the price has been holding so well - this US order may open another round of the floodgates, with other countries following suit.

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditions/10/31/us.flu.plan/index.html


----------



## chansw (2 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - Relenza story keeps growing*



			
				canny said:
			
		

> USA releases figures today (Wednesday our time probably) of how they are spending their massive budget on bird flu prevention.
> Relenza is expected to get a decent chunk of the action, as anti viral stockpiling is still considered the best in the first line of medical defence.
> 
> Keep an eye on CNN news pages for the updates - but that's probably why the price has been holding so well - this US order may open another round of the floodgates, with other countries following suit.
> ...




Bush unveils $7.1 billion plan to prepare for flu pandemic

"The plan also calls for spending $1 billion to stockpile antiviral drugs -- such as Tamiflu and Relenza -- to protect first-responders and $583 million for "pandemic preparedness," that would include $100 million for states to make plans."

He did not mention how that $1 billion to be used in terms of the percentage of Tamiflu and Relenza. I also read that a few Asian countries have started the talk with Roche about producing generic Tamiflu. Taiwan is one of them.


----------



## canny (3 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

This post is taken from another forum - but I'm certain the poster won't mind.
It just shows a lot of the background that we don't usually get to hear about.  The poster seems to be very close to the company.

For all of those who still believe that Relenza is not going to be a Huge earner for Biota do more research...

Because of the fact that we have to deal with a lot of secrecy regarding concrete sales and production numbers, if you do your research you will understand that its much bigger then most believe.
Following is an other interesting article from the web.

Extract - but worth reading the whole thing. Garnier is the CEO of Glaxo.


Like Tamiflu, the Relenza supply has been outstripped by demand. Garnier, who recently met with President Bush to discuss vaccine production, said that he also met with a top health official from a country he would not name who offered to buy his entire supply "within two minutes" of the start of the meeting. 

"Once I mentioned how much Relenza I was going to [manufacture] in '05, he said, 'I'll buy it all,'" said Garnier, who would not provide specifics of Relenza's capacity. Garnier also said that some governments have offered GlaxoSmithKline fees to reserve capacities of bird flu drugs that haven't been manufactured yet. 

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/27/news/international/glaxosmithkline/


----------



## keepitreal (3 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

I have emailed biota asking the following

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hello,

Will Biota be releasing an announcement to the ASX detailing the dollar 
amount that the US is ordering of relenza included in their 1 billion
dollar 
budget?

**and the reply**

 Dane,

We have asked for those details ( and other markets) from GSK and will
inform the market if and when we get confirmation

Regards

------------------------------------------------------------------------

No doubt once this announcement is release it will have a significant effect on BTA's share price.

Today's selling i think was due to people taking profits from the share purchase plan.


----------



## canny (3 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Brilliant article in the Bulletin -
shows why Biota is more likely to be a long term help than IMU or AFT in the big scheme of things.
Anti virals will be our first line of defence, wherever the viral attack comes from.
Well worth a read.
http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/bulletin/site/articleIDs/C4A8D3B8988B924DCA2570A7007F0837


----------



## tarnor (3 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Sold my spp on open today, got freaked by the preopen shuffling.. this will bounce back hard once everyone thinks the placement holders have been flushed out.. trying to pick the rentry..
I think thier will be many buyer who have held off for this time to buy..


----------



## canny (3 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Tarnor, I think most SPP holders would have done the same today - it was panic selling almost - and yes, I'm convinced the buy back will happen.
Looked like it hit its low at 1.65 - I bought back at 1.68.
See how it pans out - but I can't see much downside from here.
Hope I'm right!


----------



## tarnor (4 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

wow didn't see that one coming!  seems oversold now with everythings thats been goin on..was hoping for a renetry in the low 1.50s got back in on the bell at 1.40 but will be a little nervouse over the weekend for sure


----------



## canny (5 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*



			
				tarnor said:
			
		

> wow didn't see that one coming!  seems oversold now with everythings thats been goin on..was hoping for a renetry in the low 1.50s got back in on the bell at 1.40 but will be a little nervouse over the weekend for sure



Me too tarnor - I kept the 1.68's and bought more at 1.40
Even if it takes more than a few days, I'm certain we'll see another ballistic run up some time before too long.
Trying to accumulate as funds are freed, as it's one where you can make a substantial profit if you have the time to wait for it.
The orders going in world wide are amazing - and it's only just scraping the surface at the moment.
Looking forward to a LANI partner and some more numbers coming through. 
Not expecting too much to come out of the mediation talks initially - but who knows!
Happy trading.


----------



## chansw (5 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*



			
				tarnor said:
			
		

> wow didn't see that one coming!  seems oversold now with everythings thats been goin on..was hoping for a renetry in the low 1.50s got back in on the bell at 1.40 but will be a little nervouse over the weekend for sure



tanor, I got back in at 1.50 yesterday as well and might buy more on Monday.  Biota made an announcement on 16 Sept 2005 on "Reported stockpiling orders". It mentioned "Holland - Order received, but disclosure not allowed at this stage". So far, I have not seen anything about this order yet.

Also, I read a newspaper article in a Hong Kong newspaper before that some medical Professors urged the HK Govt to stockpile more Relenza.

Two more outbreaks in China and Vietnam reported. New Bird Flu In China, Vietnam


----------



## Doctor Funko (6 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/19102005/325/glaxo-shares-rally-bird-flu-drug-hopes.html
talks about 800 million pounds in Relenza revenue annually!  Thats almost 2 billion Aus dollars and 6% royalties to Biota = $120 million
I think this is even before the outsourcing of relenza production that's been talked about.  Yes, its a bio, so people are afraid and selling off their SPP's for Xmas etc but just wait for the fundamentals to kick in.  I bought some more at 1.54.  Their may be more selling before it bounces but when all the revenue pours in it cannot but bounce hard.  We are lucky to get in at these prices i think.


----------



## chansw (6 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Indonesia finds two new human bird flu cases

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/06Nov2005_news16.php


----------



## Kauri (6 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

I haven't looked into the bio's much and therefore my knowledge is limited to what has been in the press, mainly it seems about the unavailability of anti-virals.
  With the reported massive shortfall of supply againt demand for relenza it would seem that BTA needs more production facilities and/or the ability to ramp up existing facilities in the immediate future to meet these large orders. Does anyone know if they have plans to increase production, and more importantly if so, how long before they start producing? Thanks.


----------



## chansw (6 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> I haven't looked into the bio's much and therefore my knowledge is limited to what has been in the press, mainly it seems about the unavailability of anti-virals.
> With the reported massive shortfall of supply againt demand for relenza it would seem that BTA needs more production facilities and/or the ability to ramp up existing facilities in the immediate future to meet these large orders. Does anyone know if they have plans to increase production, and more importantly if so, how long before they start producing? Thanks.



"Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- GlaxoSmithKline Plc, Europe's largest drugmaker, will start producing the antiviral medicine Relenza in Australia as concerns rise about the potential of a lethal bird- flu outbreak. 

Glaxo will start making the drug, which research has shown to be useful in treating bird flu, at its Melbourne plant by mid 2006, spokesman Alex Gosman said in a statement. Relenza is currently made only in France"

You can read the whole story here


----------



## pete152 (7 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

The Company just put out the top 20 list,again.
Cheers,
Peter


----------



## tarnor (7 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

3 u buyers and a u seller chomped today massive turnover and not much movement.. I was gunna bail if it broke thru 1.37 which it did.. but have stayed in.. still expect it to go back up i think....


----------



## keepitreal (7 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

This could be the turning point..  i think the bulls are starting to level it.
the day started off with optimism and ended with very low volume.. i think people were sitting on the sidelines not sure which way it was going in the end..
tomorrow should be interesting and will most probably confirm its future direction.


----------



## chansw (11 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

A new announcement "French Government Confirms Relenza Stockpile of 9 million units" on ASX Web site. Share price up more than 23%


----------



## Aussiejeff (14 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*



			
				chansw said:
			
		

> A new announcement "French Government Confirms Relenza Stockpile of 9 million units" on ASX Web site. Share price up more than 23%




Going by this mornings pre-orders frenzy, this could be another interesting day for BTA.

I'm gonna try to join the ruck at anything <$2.10..... 

Of course BTA's earnings off the back of the French announcement is dependent on the price per unit sold by GSK, but even if the units sold at a big discount of say $20 per unit, 7% royalty on those sales would still be "big moolah" for BTA. And that's even disregarding Germanys sales...   

As with any health stock, a bit of a gamble in such volatile times, but I'm prepared to give it a shot again after my last "lucky dip" in and out..  

Good luck,

AJ


----------



## Aussiejeff (15 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Well, that was a quick ride. Bought in at $2.04 and sold at near yesterdays top at $2.12 withing 1 hour of buying. Talk about volatile! 

Not surprising really as it appears BTA is driven largely by almost daily bird flu news articles and occasional company announcements ATM. Basically, I monitor the depth in trades starting about 15 mins before open, and if the pattern looks VERY firmly "up" I might climb on board again... we'll see.

Happy trading,

AJ


----------



## tarnor (15 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Another meeting between gsk and biota this friday expecting a build up to this.. later in the week...

yesterday was a bit dissapointing i didn't trade it so well, only improved my position by a cent ..




> Dr Hamied, however, illustrates his point with the two drugs seen to be effective in treating the symptoms of bird-flu ”” Oseltamivir (marketed by Roche as Tamiflu) and Zanamivir (marketed by GlaxoSmithKline as Relenza).
> 
> "They are not sold by their originators. They are in-licensed products," he points out. Roche is paying Gilead a 10 per cent royalty on Tamiflu sales, while GSK pays Biota a seven per cent royalty on Relenza.
> 
> "Because we are third world, our prices are low. But I am willing to pay up to four per cent on my net sales to the originator," he argues.


----------



## powwww (15 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Just joined this forum as I have been in two minds about investing in this company...

From my research if Biota wins the court case the shares will go up substantially... 

If GSK sign this deal with Nicholas Piramal India (NPIL),http://www.business-standard.com/co...leftindx=1&lselect=1&chklogin=N&autono=205588 the stock will go up even if the royalty rate is much lower.

From reading routers I think there will be some +ve movement very soon as in international press there has been much talk about the virus mutating to be potentially spread amongst humans.  

On the -ve side it is a very volatile stock as seen over these last few days.

Any opinions on the above would be appreciated as I am very new to this whole game.

Regards


----------



## tarnor (15 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Yoinked from another board i'm sure they won't mind...



> "Mark von Itztein (a co-inventor of zanamivir) says they can cut production time to a few weeks. Most of the current 9 month production time is mucking about with packing and delivery. It is much easier to make than Tamiflu. It is also a much better fit in the virus binding site so you need a tenth as much to be effective and because it fits as designed rather than being forced as Tamiflu is, it does not induce mutational spread. Tamiflu induces resistance because it is a dodgy fit that overlaps a region of the viral protein that is variable while Relenza sits in an invariant region."


----------



## powwww (17 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Whats everyone doing with this. I bought this stock ages back at $0.60 odd cents then the spp.  Haven't been trading it - unfortunately (just holding).  

Been some good publicity on tv tonight - plenty of international press too..

court resumes tomorrow - any thoughts on how long this will go on for?

should spike soon...


----------



## powwww (18 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Interesting article in the financial times, amongst other places, last night!

Tamiflu is being investigated for causing deaths and pschiatric problems amongst teenagers - a win for relenza...



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Roche hit as FDA examines Tamiflu deaths
By Andrew Jack in London and Christopher Bowe in New York 
Published: November 17 2005 20:17 | Last updated: November 17 2005 20:17

Roche, the Swiss pharmaceutical group, moved to shore up a 3 per cent drop in its share price on Thursday after the US Food and Drug Administration said it would Friday examine reports of up to 12 deaths and 75 other cases of children who suffered side effects after using Tamiflu, its anti-flu drug.


As part of a scheduled review of eight paediatric medicines, the FDA said it was in “active communication with . . . regulators” concerning the drug's use in Japan, the country with the widest use of Tamiflu for regular seasonal flu treatment, and where all the deaths and most of the other incidents of side-effects occurred.

The news presents a dilemma for governments drawing up contingency plans to prepare for a potentially lethal bird flu-derived pandemic, for which Tamiflu is widely viewed as the most practicable short-term drug for treatment and prophylactic use.

It presents a fresh challenge to Roche, which has seen demand for Tamiflu rise sharply in recent months towards projected sales of $1bn this year. George W Bush, US president, recently earmarked $1bn for purchases for pandemic stockpiles, and about 50 governments have placed similar orders.

David Reddy, pandemic task force leader at Roche, said of the safety reports: “This has been blown up out of all proportions. We don't see any increased risk, and even [see] a decreased risk of death in infant mortality for those taking Tamiflu.” 

He said there was no clear causal link between the deaths and Tamiflu, which had been used by 24.5m patients in Japan, including 11.6m children. 

Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, dismissed the safety reports as “not of concern” and said the FDA was unlikely to change its safety labeling for the drug.

*The fresh concerns may help boost interest in GlaxoSmithKline's Relenza, the only rival anti-viral drug on the market that may prove effective against pandemic flu. * " 


http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0b4928ea-57a6-11da-8866-00000e25118c.html


----------



## powwww (21 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

anyone got any idea where the court case is being held, i've checked listings but to no avail. would this be because of the sensitivity of it...400Million riding on it - a win would quadruple their annual profit - obviously would be a big thing for the prices. Should have been held last friday but haven't heard any news?  Anouncement would be today?  

Also, the news from the US is good for biota with pres bush planning to buy up big on relenza once production is upped...

would appreciate anyones opinions...

thanks in advance

powwww


----------



## powwww (21 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Good news, finally Pres bush released his spends for the antivirals of 1billion USD.  This is shared between tamiflu and relenza.  Confirmations shouldn't be too far away ...days...weeks..

No one is following this one?


----------



## Doctor Funko (23 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

oh yes plenty are following this just this board isnt as populated as some other share discussion boards such as HotCopper.  powww, you picked up at .60?  Well done!  Long term this stock should go MUCH further up but in the short term lots of ups and downs.


----------



## tarnor (23 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Still watching/holding some and trading it also.. think the little sell down the past few days has probably got to do with dissapointment and realisation that where not going to get a settlement..  (or at least it seems like that)  sellings dried up alot. looking for a close up near 2.00$

rumour from another board of Australia stockpiling 2m doses.. that figure could be bs but QLD was said to be stockpiling in an article a little while back so thier will be some more revenue at least...

I still feel thier is plenty of upside a great one to trade 2..  cheers and gl


----------



## powwww (23 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Also from another board...a rumour that a settlement might be close.  OF course, only speculation for the immediate moment but it could explain why we haven't heard anything about the court date yet which should have been released on the 18/11/05...don't you agree?

"The demand and size of the orders suggest to me that the buyers are not retail investors but rather, significantly deep pockets who want this stock...and want it NOW versus a quite covert operation to accummulate the stock from impatient, weak hands.

Anyone in such a hurry must have the insider track... "


----------



## powwww (23 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

tarnor,

Where was the order for an Australian 2 million doses rumoured?  

A News story or some place else?

& doctor funko - thanks was one of the better ones lately hope your right and it keeps climbing as i haven't been trading just holding this one.  Kinda don't want to get caught with a big anouncement like the .50cent climb after the french


----------



## chansw (23 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Another order that I am interested to know is the one from Holland. There was a rumour that was 5 million doses but Biota has responded to it on 12 Sept that the confirmation has not been received from GSK. 

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/050912/38/92s4.html

I think this order has not been confirmed so far unless I oversighted some of the announcements. Can anyone confirm this, please? Thanks.


----------



## powwww (23 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

I think that this would already be factored into the share price - gsk are keeping biota in the dark without a light to bolster their court case and maybe improve their chance of a 'fairer' settlement according to them. Certainly anouncements will come soon.


----------



## powwww (25 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Should be some movement today. Bit of publicity again for the avian flu and talk of a huge coverup in China.


----------



## chansw (26 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

"BIOTA Holdings will continue its mammoth legal action against GlaxoSmithKline after a period of compulsory mediation expired without a result.

Biota has filed for damages in the range of $308 million to $430 million, alleging GSK dumped the biotech's breakthrough anti-flu drug Relenza in breach of a licensing agreement.
...
...
Relenza has been revived with the stockpiling orders, which some estimates say could reach $US10 billion ($13.6 billion) over the next few years"

Read the full article "Biota flu row kicks off again"


----------



## tarnor (26 November 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

I read that as stockpile orders for both relenza and tamiflu combined..  Seems a little to good to be true.

The 2m figure was just a forum rumour from a poster.. I'll let you decide how reliable that is .. its common knowledge that QLD health was stockpiling relenza though as it was in online articles sometime ago. i do not have the links..

My feeling with BTA is some short term downside as punters who were hoping for a quick settlement will be off chasing some quicker $$$.. I think it will continue to gradually weaken after news based price spikes.. A settlement I presume would have opened up the communications between GSK and BTA resulting in a clearer picture of BTA's situations..

This could go anywhere though...


----------



## chansw (5 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

An article from SMH (3 Dec) on Biota

Biota's new boss times things well


----------



## canny (5 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Getting closer to a trial date:
Email from company today - "There is another hearing this week and the Court will review progress on a number of matters given that mediation has now been held, as they instructed.

At some point, we expect the Court will set a trial date. This may occur this week or at a subsequent hearing. We will advise the market when this occurs. At this time, we must let the Court do its job."


----------



## powwww (9 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Been watching this stock closely all day - Each time the price moves up someone is selling 100 shares for a lower price amongst other interesting things happening ?  Someone buys low then that same number appears on the sell side?  Any clues why someone is doing this?  Sure would like to know whats happening.


----------



## chansw (9 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*



			
				powwww said:
			
		

> Been watching this stock closely all day - Each time the price moves up someone is selling 100 shares for a lower price amongst other interesting things happening ?  Someone buys low then that same number appears on the sell side?  Any clues why someone is doing this?  Sure would like to know whats happening.



It is interesting to know that is happening but I have no clue why someone is doing this. I am more interested to know what is happening about the court case. Anyone knows anything about that?


----------



## powwww (10 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Got the info on the court proceedings from a poster "rednblu" from SS, and the other post from a poster called ty.webb. sure they wouldn't mind as it answers your question - certainly.

"The "case" for Relenza is improving at the same time that the share price is weakening.

Market opportunities are made of such concurrences.

Once more, BTA is in an attractive buy zone. I don't mean to say this as a mere observation - I have bought again, and am talking my book.

I'm "stockpiling" BTA below $1.50.

I'm sure that this is a "risky" investment - but the risk/reward ratio seems eminently acceptable to me." ty.webb


"Yesterday Proceedings

Much of the proceedings yesterday revolved around questions of legal costs of the Application. Not very exciting stuff. 

Primarily the proceedings were more in line of a Directions hearing. There were arguments on the speed of the discovery of documents by GSK. There seems to tons of documents (something well in excess of 250,000+ documents) that need to be considered and prioritised. BTA also requested that the discovery process be widened to include a larger number of countries. I guess the reason why BTA has requested an enlargened number of countries is to ascertain the sales of Relenza which have not been reported for various by GSK. Irrespective BTA will know next year what those sales are anyway as GSK has to under the terms of the contract to BTA

The end result is that GSK will provide 3 further tranches of discoverable documents in Dec 2005, Feb and March 2006. The minimum rate is approx 20,000 documents per tranch. GSK will also provide regular updates to the court as where it is at with respect to the discovery process. It should be noted that hearings can proceed even if all documents have not been discovered. This does happen in long and complex cases otherwise it could take years (decades??) before the case is able to be heard.

Next hearing date is 24th March 2006 which presumably will be to update the Court as to where the parties are at and provide further directions. 

As to the question of costs of this application were to form part of the costs of the overall proceedings. " rednblu


----------



## powwww (10 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

I think it is likely we will not see a court date set until later than expected which is adding the unknown to the market.  The market does not like uncertainty but at the moment it is an absolute bargain.  Originally I thought next news wouldn't bolster the shareprice much now I think it is an absolute bargain and a unique opportunity to purchase. When news leaks - and theres plenty building this one will blow!!


----------



## powwww (11 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Someone called gargar on another board posted this...It has been flitering to other boards with other people with relatives in the US confirming it!  Someone else has claimed that it will be "a very large order coming out of the states, possibly *40 million doses of Relenza worth approx $120million to bta in the very near future.*.."  The US is in hysterics about bird flu when this reaches aust tomorrow or later in the week the sp will go ballistic.


I am currently in the USA and was watching a report on the bird flu preparations in the USA. *The Health and Human services minister confirmed stockpiling of relenza (and tamiflu) and said they were buying 'as much as was produced'. * This was in the lead up to a special on CNN on bird flu...sunday night at 10pm (US time). If this is public news here, Biota will have to make an ann. soon. 

Get excited

Powwww


----------



## chansw (11 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*



			
				powwww said:
			
		

> Someone called gargar on another board posted this...It has been flitering to other boards with other people with relatives in the US confirming it!  Someone else has claimed that it will be "a very large order coming out of the states, possibly *40 million doses of Relenza worth approx $120million to bta in the very near future.*.."  The US is in hysterics about bird flu when this reaches aust tomorrow or later in the week the sp will go ballistic.
> 
> 
> I am currently in the USA and was watching a report on the bird flu preparations in the USA. *The Health and Human services minister confirmed stockpiling of relenza (and tamiflu) and said they were buying 'as much as was produced'. * This was in the lead up to a special on CNN on bird flu...sunday night at 10pm (US time). If this is public news here, Biota will have to make an ann. soon.
> ...



Thanks for sharing the info, Powwww.   I am always interested to know how President Bush will spend that $1 billion dollars on anti viral drugs in terms of percentage on tamiflu and relenza. Hopefully, the good news for Biota will be out soon.


----------



## Buda (12 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Well Well Well BTA    will we c it go above  $ 2.60  It is a $ 4.00 stock isnt it


----------



## Buda (13 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Australians will be reassured by a government boost of $185 million to improve the country's ability to deal with major health emergencies.

The multi-million dollar spend will stretch over five years and will enhance the ability to deal with anything from bird flu to bioterrorism.

The stockpile of bird flu antiviral medicine will be increased to cover 28 per cent of the population under a plan to prepare for a potential pandemic.

Federal Health Minister Tony Abbott has also unveiled a new office of health protection to co-ordinate the national response to all health emergencies.

The office will be responsible for strengthening disease surveillance systems and developing national health security legislation.

The funding comes at a time when Australian doctors are calling for mandatory disaster management training for healthcare workers to deal with a potential terrorist attack.

Professor Jeffrey Rosenfeld from The Alfred Hospital in Melbourne, in a report says that most hospitals are not able to cope with more than 24 seriously injured patients at any one time and there should be mandatory disaster training for all healthcare workers, including medical students and student nurses.

Rosenfeld says that preparation for a major event includes training staff in major incident management, setting up an operational/control unit, nominating key personnel, ensuring an efficient intra-hospital communication system, and enhancing links with other emergency services and hospitals.

He says doctors and nurses who would be receiving and treating victims of terrorist attacks must be up to date with their knowledge of the types of injuries and treatments required after bomb blasts.

Abbott says the package includes $80 million to buy antivirals and antibiotics, including Tamiflu and Relenza, for the national medical stockpile, and says the threat of a pandemic is real, and will remain a possibility in the next few years.

Professor Rosenfel's report is published in the current issue of th


----------



## Buda (16 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

http://news.google.com.au/url?sa=t&...DJStory.aspx?DJStoryID=20051215DN017881&cid=0


----------



## powwww (23 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

sOME VERy positive news for biota come through last few hours. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,17643625%5E36375,00.html  Better still ALL over the aust press.

"Leading virologist Sir John Skehel, director of the National Institute for Medical Research in London,* urged the Government to broaden the UK's defence by looking at other options such as the inhaled drug Relenza.* "  

"An accompanying article in the journal reinforced calls for alternative approaches to treatment for a pandemic, including the stockpiling of the rival drug zanamivir, or Relenza. "

"The British health department said on Wednesday night: "Tamiflu was chosen on the basis of independent expert advice that reflected its efficacy and ease of administration. Internationally, this is agreed as the product of choice. *Our anti-viral strategy is kept under constant review and we are looking carefully at Relenza * as a possible back-up to Tamiflu.""


----------



## saichuen (23 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*



			
				powwww said:
			
		

> sOME VERy positive news for biota come through last few hours. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,17643625%5E36375,00.html  Better still ALL over the aust press.
> 
> "Leading virologist Sir John Skehel, director of the National Institute for Medical Research in London,* urged the Government to broaden the UK's defence by looking at other options such as the inhaled drug Relenza.* "
> 
> ...




interesting news....
i'm a small holder of Biota shares...
and my understanding on both these drugs (Tamiflu and Relenza) is that they are never meant to be a 'cure' for the flu but rather as a prevention treatment. so what can happen to Tamiflu can also potentially be a risk for Relenza as well?
that said... go Biota go...


----------



## powwww (23 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

apparently not...although i guess in this area nothing is certain. read this from "_the new england journal of medicine_" Read the full article if you get a chance - things are looking good for biota - certainly!

"To accommodate the bulky side chain of oseltamivir in the active site, the neuraminidase molecule must undergo rearrangement to create a pocket (Panel A). *Zanamivir (relenza), by contrast, binds to the active site without any rearrangement of the molecule*."  

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/353/25/2633


----------



## powwww (23 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Expect some big news next days/ weeks! NOT MONTHS.

director John Grant loaded up another 101,131 BTA's...))

$ 147,183,99 average of $1,455

Directors buy on information not on a whim!


----------



## saichuen (28 December 2005)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

let's all hope there will be more orders coming in soon.   

also, does anyone have any news on how the US is going to spend their 1 billion budget on the stockpiling of the bird flu antivirals (Tamiflu & Relenza?). it will be interesting to know...

cheers!


----------



## britishcarfreak (11 January 2006)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

...some big movements in the last few days.  Considering that CSL have apparently got a bird flu vacine up and running in testing it surprises me that things have moved upwards rather than downwards.

comments anyone?


----------



## saichuen (11 January 2006)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

it's probably the market sentiment that is driving the price up again after the news of the recent deaths in China/Turkey?

just a wild guess here.


----------



## spottygoose (11 January 2006)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Go to sharescene.com.au and read through the biota thread has the answer to your question re vaccines. A vaccine cannot be developed to fight a virus that has not yet mutated and once it has it will take time to see if it actually works. In the meantime anti-virals are needed to fight the symptoms and will fight the symptoms of the next flu strain that comes along. That is why governments are continuing to stockpile anti-virals and why the supply of these is presently exhausted.  It is not an issue for the SP, especially not right now and aside from that biota is not a one drug company has many exciting things in development.


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## whooyeah (11 January 2006)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Can anyone see a patern here. Everytime there is some news on the weekend about birdflu, BTA jumps at least $0.30. then settles back down to $1.40-1.50 within a few weeks.

I've seen this happen at least 4 or 5 times.


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## tony2252 (11 January 2006)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

i hope your wrong about it moving back to 150 i bought at 180 today along with many others there trades a few big buyers too!


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## spottygoose (12 January 2006)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Unless you are after a very short term trade I wouldn;t be bothered. It might re-trace slightly over the next few days (i don't imagine back to 1.50 - i think those days are gone). It is equally likely that it will move ahead if an concrete news on orders comes out. If you are prepared to wait (and i don't think the wait will be that long) you will be in the green.


----------



## powwww (12 January 2006)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*



			
				spottygoose said:
			
		

> Unless you are after a very short term trade I wouldn;t be bothered. It might re-trace slightly over the next few days (i don't imagine back to 1.50 - i think those days are gone). It is equally likely that it will move ahead if an concrete news on orders comes out. If you are prepared to wait (and i don't think the wait will be that long) you will be in the green.





I would tend to agree with spottygoose your in safe hands--yes even if you bought at $1.80

for starters the upside is the release of a dozen countries orders in may which have confidentiality clauses from 2005 these are orders which are likely to be delivered this and next year.

Secondly the WHO and dozens of other countries have just upped their spends terrificly to buy anti virals!  Now the below journal article exerts should demonstrate why I and others are confident Relenza will be the anti viral of choice.  If this is the case this share will exceed any expectations as at current values its market share is 20/80 relenza/tamiflu sales ratio. Things are changing!

The key here is this article - drs, professors, gov and anyone with the power to buy relenza or tamiflu has read it or knows about it. IMO it is the reason for a lot of the support of bta lately upon the emergence of H5N1. Before the emergence would mean either tamiflu or relenza - after reading this you will find it will be mainly relenza and IV relenza. 

"Why is resistance developing to oseltamivir(tamiflu)? Several years ago,structural analysis predicted that aspects of the chemical structure of oseltamivir (tamiflu) (not present in zanamivir) could facilitate the development of resistance mutations that would permit neuraminidase to function, allowing drug-resistant virus to survive and propagate. This prediction is now being validated by clinical data. "

"To accommodate the bulky side chain of oseltamivir(tamiflu) in the active site, the neuraminidase molecule must undergo rearrangement to create a pocket. 
---->Zanamivir (relenza), by contrast, binds to the active site without any rearrangement of the molecule."

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/353/25/2633

Matter of time before the upside is actualised!  $1.80 will look like a bargain with patience


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## tony2252 (15 January 2006)

*Re: BTA Biota - is this a bio?? :/*

Thankyou for the detailed reply on this stock. I appreciate the feedback on bta.... Tony


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## Buda (16 January 2006)

*BIOTA...RELENZA SALES..*

With the CDC recomending relenza, we sould see sales growth 
http://www.seniorjournal.com/Spotlights/FLU2005-06/6-01-15-DontUseAmantadine.htm


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## Rafa (7 February 2006)

takeover rumours apparently are the reason for the share price rise... of almost 10% today...

any truth to this???
i wonder whats up???


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## britishcarfreak (7 February 2006)

well we had a run to 1.90 in early jan for no apparent reason.

it would be be nice to see these guys better managed through the growth that is bound to occur.

it's awkward to know what's going to happen - with rumours that confidentiality clauses with GSK preventing them from announcing timely material - I feel that there could be a lot more about to go down in the next few months.


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## Prospector (7 February 2006)

GSK are due to make a planned announcement to the market on their sales figures on February 8th UK time, which will be later tomorrow night our time.
I guess day traders are hoping to sell on Thursday on some news about Relenza orders.


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## britishcarfreak (7 February 2006)

Any predictions on how the market will respond this time?  It would be nice to see a run to $3 again.  I have grabbed a few parcels - once at 1.91 and again at 1.43.  Part of me knows that this could easily run over $3 in time.  I also feel that I'm only likely to realise such a high figure if I carefully play amongst these day trader driven mad runs.  Naturally I've got SMS triggers ready to let me know when it runs past 1.90 - but it's going to be so hard to pick the top of this one.


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## Prospector (7 February 2006)

I have been following BTA from 50c, purchased as many as I could with the SPP at 78c; have traded them at around $2.20 mark then bought in again at $1.45 as well as holding on to the SPP shares.  BTA is very much a day trader stock, as well as long term for those who feel that as soon as the litigation process is finalised, it may soar on the back of million dollar orders.  GSK only have to report annually in March, and are not releasing any more than they have to, presumably because of the court case.  The SP rises when a country releases its order quota independently of GSK process.  For instance, many feel that the US may release details of the stockpile so on that day the price will soar.  It happened in Jan when another order was announced.

I have the feeling that tomorrow it may well consolidate though.  Time will tell  

It takes much patience to follow this stock but it is an exciting ride!


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## chansw (8 February 2006)

I found the following two interesting news.

[SIZE=+2]From NineMSN Market News yesterday[/SIZE]

"Small-cap biotechnology company, Biota Holdings Ltd. (BTA.AX), jumped 11 percent to A$1.61 on speculation it was scouting for acquisitions in the United States. A Biota spokesman told Reuters the company does not comment on market speculation. Trade volume was near average levels at 2.8 million shares."

[SIZE=+2]From The Australian[/SIZE]

*Flu drug makes an amazing recovery*

IT is the dead-cat drug that just won't die.

The commercial revival of GlaxoSmithKline's Australian-developed influenza drug, Relenza, was given local form last week with the formal re-opening of one production line at the pharmaceutical giant's factory in Melbourne. 

The first of two "new" production lines for Relenza, which will cost about $30 million, was formally opened by Health Minister Tony Abbott and GSK's local managing director, Paul Lirette. It is hard to know which of the two would have wanted to be there less. 

Certainly both kept their visit to the Boronia factory very quiet indeed. News of the successful opening ceremony is on neither the Health Minister's website nor, more amazingly, GSK's. 

That might reflect the fact that Abbott, Lirette and the international executive hosts at GSK are very recent converts to the idea that Relenza is worth anyone's hard-earned cash. Relenza's return is an obvious by-product of a global hysteria over bird flu and the subsequent fear that we could face a new global flu pandemic. 

The belated embrace of Relenza by the federal Government was confirmed on December 16 with its order for 1.8 million "additional courses" of the home-grown flu drug. Additional indeed. Until that order, Australia's Relenza reserves stood at a grand total of 24,570 courses. 

Not that we stood unprepared. Even though Australian taxpayers effectively spent $247 million on the development of Relenza, the Government ended up building its $555 million pandemic defence around Relenza's dominant competitor, Roche's Tamiflu. 

So why did we spend $114 million on a Tamiflu stockpile? Most likely because Relenza's owners, GSK, had demonstrated such a palpable lack of confidence in the safety, effectiveness and value of the drug. 

To get a clear idea of the extent of GSK's failed faith, just grab a copy of the company's opening defence of a $430 million lawsuit launched against the multinational by its Australian partner in the drug, Biota Holdings. 

Biota was the first corporate supporter of Relenza - and it still shares with the CSIRO a 7 per cent royalty from sales of the drug. Up until mid-way through 2005, that meant very little. 

This is because in September 2001, without telling Biota, GSK quietly decided to withdraw the drug and to suspend research in a new form of the drug. 

Biota claims it did not know until the start of 2004 flu season that GSK had dropped Relenza. It maintains that the first and only formal confirmation of GSK was delivered in the 2005 defence. 

Lodged with the Victorian Supreme Court in May 2005, the GSK defence reflects extensively on US concerns about Relenza's side-effects and the views of European governments that the drug was "poor value for money". 

And GSK seems to itself conclude that its drug should be no one's choice for a pandemic stockpile. 

The document twice warns: "Relenza is less suitable than Tamiflu for stockpiling by governments and other authorities in order to cope with an influenza epidemic or pandemic." 

If that is the case, someone should perhaps make a call to the French Government, which recently placed an order for 9 million courses of Relenza. It might not come as music to Tony Abbott's ears either. After all, his order will cost more than $40 million. 

To be fair to GSK, it does seem that its view of Relenza has changed profoundly since the Biota defence was written. 

The best illustration of the change of heart came in October last year in a market briefing by the man widely regarded as the chief executioner of Relenza, GSK's chief executive J.P. Garnier. 

While still openly wary of Relenza's delivery system (it is inhaled, unlike Tamiflu, which is a pill), Garnier agreed that the company just could not produce the stuff fast enough to meet the demand and said GSK had kick-started research on a way of delivering the drug and was looking at reviving research into the preventative form of the drug. 

For all that, Garnier's tone was hardly celebratory. And that probably reflects the unusual corporate paradox he finds himself in. Garnier was intimately involved in the disappearance of Relenza, a decision that is at the heart of Biota's $430 million claim. 

The dead drug's revived popularity could add billions to GSK's revenues. But it also seems to confirm Biota's view that its pharmaceutical competitor acted too hastily in trying to kill their drug.


----------



## britishcarfreak (12 February 2006)

I'm new to charting and trying to get a handle on what the attached chart means.  What's the deal with a triangle like this?  Does it mean that it's high risk and could go either way?


----------



## phoenixrising (12 February 2006)

BCF,

I'm no expert either. Looks like a desending triangle, which suggests a breakout down. On the other hand a similar desending triangle to mid Jan broke up so could go either way 

One to monitor and see which way it goes


----------



## mr meathead (28 February 2006)

*it's gonna run*

Relenza looking more and more like the only antiviral to be relied on in the event of a pandemic flu. Active minutes after administered-unlike tamiflu which takes precious hrs to kick in and resistence probs as well.


----------



## Ken (13 September 2006)

*Bird Flu Season coming up again will BTA fly again?*

i remember around last september/october Biota went to boom town when bird flu was in the press....

If bird flu is once again a problem would this increase the price of the stock.  it seems to have flattened out aroun $1.20. The company is fairly cashed up and recent reports seem positive.  

Long term where do people this kind of company, and in the short term what will the direction be.


----------



## Ken (10 November 2006)

i beleive biota have made it as a company especially in their sector.

they are cashed up, have a product, and once these new clinical trials are completed they will go further and further.

The graph has picked up a heap of momentum and is looking like it could start a good run on. steady releasements of solid information is benefiting them.

definatley a stock for the future.  even if holding 1000 units. Potentially could be huge..


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (10 November 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> i beleive biota have made it as a company especially in their sector.
> 
> they are cashed up, have a product, and once these new clinical trials are completed they will go further and further.
> 
> ...




Ken I think your dead right ,they are huge especially when Relenza was about to be passed through FDA way back and silly me buys @$9.15!!!!! Thank God it dropped back to 45cents!....sorry could not resist the snipe ......but fortunately I managed through patience to weed myself out of the issue, and eventually get to India with the proceeds!


----------



## Sean K (29 November 2006)

BTA broke out yesterday in a general up trend. Good news for BTA holder IMO. Might consolidate for a bit before pushing on through next resistance at $1.65 ish. 

I was trading this last year during the knee jerking Bird Flu pandemic fear period and made some very handy beer money. 

Maybe it's 'investment' material now? 

(not holding)


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## Prospector (29 November 2006)

Those heady days last year were good for many of us.  I think that they have now got their act together as a research and development company, and the relenza story is still to unfold.  Although the vaccine makers must be getting closer to a prevention now, which is why I am also in CSL.


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## Crash (27 December 2006)

What will the way forward for BTA be?  New research breakthroughs, winning the GSK litigation case or actual cash returns for Relenza?  Woult BTA start paying dividends from the Relenza royalties or will it always spill back to more research?


----------



## Sean K (27 December 2006)

Crash said:
			
		

> What will the way forward for BTA be?  New research breakthroughs, winning the GSK litigation case or actual cash returns for Relenza?  Woult BTA start paying dividends from the Relenza royalties or will it always spill back to more research?



Isn't the potential litigation worth more to BTA than their current market cap?

Why would GSK pay them out as opposed to just buying them out?

All good for BTA, maybe. 

Breakout ID earlier confirmed and now potentially going again. 

Why didn't I buy back in?   

(still not holding)


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## Crash (28 December 2006)

I assume if GSK think they are going to lose they will settle for something much less than the litigation claims - which Biota will accept.  Just my guess.  At any rate they will continue to drag this out as long as possible.

I will be sticking with mine for a while yet anyway I think, but it has been a stock that always drifts downwards when nothing is happening, so thats my biggest concern.


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## Crash (16 January 2007)

Biota back up 1.68 after hangnig around 1.61 for a few weeks.  Is this likely just on the back of Bird Flu news from Vietnam in the last couple of days?


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## Prospector (16 January 2007)

I think there must be an announcement coming, BTA hasnt risen like this for several months.  And there has always been reports of bird flu around.

When exactly does litigation start?  Maybe GSK are caving in?  Who knows


----------



## Crash (19 January 2007)

Dunno seems to have drifted back down again, there did seems to be a larger amount of news on the bird flu in those couple of days?


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## Crash (25 January 2007)

Will see today if the new news of Bird Flu in Hungary and bird flu preparations in Japan will push it up.



I am holding.


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## spottygoose (25 January 2007)

Crash said:
			
		

> Will see today if the new news of Bird Flu in Hungary and bird flu preparations in Japan will push it up.
> .




I have read the news on Hungary but do you have a link to the story on the preparations in Japan?

Biota had a nice rise yesterday and I think it might be the beginning of another run into the high 160's.

Everything is starting to fall into place.  Negative news on Tamiflu, higher ratios of relenza being ordered, bird flu continuing it's march, Lani and other drugs in development and of course the settlement with GSK.

Cheers (I hold)


----------



## Crash (25 January 2007)

http://media.fairfax.com.au/?sy=age&category=Breaking News&rid=25256

As requested (it is video) and you may need to register to view.


----------



## spottygoose (25 January 2007)

Crash said:
			
		

> http://media.fairfax.com.au/?sy=age&category=Breaking News&rid=25256
> 
> As requested (it is video) and you may need to register to view.




Thanks Crash unfortunately I couldn't get it to load. Anything of interest in there re Relenza?


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## Crash (25 January 2007)

No mention of Relenza.  Basically tells of poultry deaths, awaiting tests and quarantining - saying if positive will be second outbreak in a week in Japans top poultry producing region.  First ones since 2004 in Japan.  Also mentions recent outbreaks in other asian countries.


----------



## Crash (5 February 2007)

Again will be interesting to see reaction over the Pommy bird flu situation.  See if people take the UK situation more seriously than the Asian breakouts.


----------



## Gurgler (20 April 2007)

Was yesterday an indication that there may be breaking out of this sideways movement? Increased volume and MACD is turning.

We'll wait and see. Comments anyone?


----------



## Crash (20 April 2007)

There was an announcement of their LANI trials completing in Japan and starting in UK I believe, some buying on the back of this I think.


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## Gurgler (26 April 2007)

Glaxo Smith Kline advised that royalties to Biota for Relenza have more than doubled in the past quarter ( from $7.3 mil to $16 mil).

Relenza is now the 14th largest product in what must be an impressive product mix. Augurs well for the future.


----------



## motorway (26 April 2007)

Looks to be a valid Jump
To set up the next leg to $xxxx

I thought the action in the last trend channel was very transparent

Been waiting for this to sort itself out.. Posted this chart earlier on reefcap

I felt that the market Gyrations at the time might delay the move..

There was little given back in the reaccumulation range..
When a stock comes to a hinge
definitive action might be expected..

A lot of Volume in the Jump

The backup now is the crucial thing..
I need a successful backup to confirm the jump
downside appears minimal

The volume could  mean all overhead supply in this vicinity has been cleared.

There was certainly a dry up of activity where the stock came to a hinge.
The trading range was good preperation and was I thought very strong.
The whole range nearly can be defined as accumulation

motorway


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## Dutchy3 (28 April 2007)

Hi motor ... and the volume too. I prefer a weekly time frame and good to see is working on the daily as well ... stocks jump on volume from areas of resistance for reasons, the announcement aside. Lets see what it can do now


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## eternit (28 April 2007)

Hi Guys,

Do you think the price of BTA could go over $3 in the next few months? 

Also there has not being any dividend payouts for BTA this year?


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## Sean K (28 April 2007)

eternit said:


> Hi Guys, Do you think the price of BTA could go over $3 in the next few months?



 Eternit, how could anyone possibly reasonably answer this? I'd invite anyone to provide a response using some quality FA or TA, but it'd really be a task. ANY price targets must come with detailed analysis. Cheers, kennas


----------



## eternit (28 April 2007)

kennas said:


> Eternit, how could anyone possibly reasonably answer this? I'd invite anyone to provide a response using some quality FA or TA, but it'd really be a task. ANY price targets must come with detailed analysis. Cheers, kennas




hi kennas,

Can TA and FA analysis help determine an approximation share price for BTA in the next few months? If so how can i go about doing FA and TA?

Thanks


----------



## Sean K (28 April 2007)

Well, with fundamentals you might be able to look at their inlows of royalties from Relenza, or what GSK might have to pay them in this law suit and how much this might be all worth to them. With technical analysis you need to look at the chart and make price projections using any of the accepted methods such as EW, fibonacci, support and resistance lines, or even Gann. 

Just making a general guestimate on a price target withough using some facts and figures isn't an acceptable method of share valuation. 

One thing you could definately look at is what the law suit could be worth to them. Try googling it. 

You should go to their web site for some detailed info. There are some analyst reports there putting some valuations on the company. TaylorCollison has a $2.21 12 mth target for example. Read through these reports to get a feel for how they come up with the valuation. 

Cheers,
kennas

http://www.biota.com.au/?page=1021003&subpage=1021136


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## eternit (28 April 2007)

kennas said:


> Well, with fundamentals you might be able to look at their inlows of royalties from Relenza, or what GSK might have to pay them in this law suit and how much this might be all worth to them. With technical analysis you need to look at the chart and make price projections using any of the accepted methods such as EW, fibonacci, support and resistance lines, or even Gann.
> 
> Just making a general guestimate on a price target withough using some facts and figures isn't an acceptable method of share valuation.
> 
> ...




Cool thanks. Good info there.

btw the law suit you talking about, this is the one which started in 04?


----------



## motorway (28 April 2007)

eternit said:


> hi kennas,
> 
> Can TA and FA analysis help determine an approximation share price for BTA in the next few months? If so how can i go about doing FA and TA?
> 
> Thanks




If you have a look at My chart from a TA perspective..

You can see how good the quality of the trend was..

In the uptrend channel....Look how the volume was in complete harmony .
price and volume expanded together..Volume occurred at the bottom of all the small waves creating impetus and momentum..

Demand continually overcame supply... All We had to do was be in harmony with the trend... 

A trend like that gathers a following... It will last as long as that following is maintained... What finally happened in this case was that the buyers, the demand became less willing to reach higher .. The sellers had to start meeting the buyers The trend terminated into a trading range... Some profit taking occurred...

Ok a trading range if it is active is another type of trend .. It also gathers a following.. on balance there is buying at the bottom and selling at the top

An active trading range builds the energy for the next move
A technical position is being built.. And a lot of contingent orders are building on the sidelines... ( That is Why the Volume surges ..All those wanting to buy or sell waiting for  their signal )..

Now do We judge that this trading range is accumulation going to lead to a new markup ...Or Do We see distribution occurring..

Where did the volume dry up ? 
Where did price react with vigor from ?
Were there signs of demand or supply taking the initiative ?

How much of the previous markup  was given back while the sellers were meeting the buyers at their prices in this trading range ?

The swings in the trading range are testing support.. Building that contingency and  transferring ownership (  sellers cashing in accrued profits to buyers looking for future profits ).. A technical position is being created
that will reflect the time frames , cost price and information of those participating ... A line of least resistance is being created that with a confirmed Jump and backup will soon gather a following..

In a sense the smartest money bought at the bottom of the trading range
That is why it was the selling that became exhausted...

The effect of news  of the response also reveals A strong technical position..

All things being equal If We analyse the swings in the trading range We can produce a dead reckoning price target ( A target like something being aimed at Not a prediction )..  Buyers who have been buying will hold for higher prices  the sellers have already been left behind and a new markup will also build momentum and a gather a further following..

I can generate two such targets.... a conservative one of just over $2.00
and a higher one of just under $3.00  ... 

They suggest that taking the trade/investment is a sound proposition
Good strong action  producing a strong technical position.. Like a high pressure system,,

Once the trend is underway... We just again have to keep in harmony like the previous markup.... look out for signs of change.. Also expect other "stepping Stone" trading ranges maybe one just over $2.00..

However It is dead reckoning.. We can see the swings that price has made in the range testing demand and supply...  I have seen it explained like a hammer thrower spinning around before He let's go and throws..
Once in flight ( once a markup is under way ) Anything can then happen to completely change the risk reward..

At the moment We have things looking good...The backup is occurring atm .. 

And the targets are at higher and not lower prices..
On the archery field We don't want to be the targets  

We can see the alternation larger and smaller ... 
Price activity is continually building ranges ( seeking equilibrium )
building a potential that gives way to trends ( seeking a new equilibrium )
even within the uptrend channel

cheers  Dutch... yes the weekly is very important..

motorway


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## eternit (28 April 2007)

motorway said:


> If you have a look at My chart from a TA perspective..
> 
> You can see how good the quality of the trend was..
> 
> ...




Thanks for the explanation 

It was very informative and made a lot of sense too. I will keep an eye on the chart and lets see what happens


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## Crash (2 May 2007)

Good to see someone give this a kick in the guts today, peeking over 1.80.  Hopefully a sign of things to come.


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## Crash (7 May 2007)

Pushing into the high 1.80s this morning after some positive press in the Herald Sun yesterday and finishing last week at 1.835.  I believe the target quoted in the HS article was 2.10 on the back of the last Relenza royalties update.  How quick it can get up there is the question after being fairly slow for some time.


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## Gurgler (7 May 2007)

The graph is certainly looking a little healthier - although only regesering a 13.6% rise since news broke on 26 April. 

The move to acquire CSIRO's Relenza royalty rights (ann May 3) should maintain the upward momentum.


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## Gurgler (17 May 2007)

Gurgler said:


> The move to acquire CSIRO's Relenza royalty rights (ann May 3) should maintain the upward momentum.




However I was wrong, it hasn't! Today opening at $1.715, it seems the market has not appreciated the long term positives inherent in that move. I guess this is not entirely unexpected given that it is a Biotech stock.

This out today on FN Arena supports my confidence that there is a brighter future lying ahead:


*Are Investors Overlooking Upside Potential At Biota?
FN Arena News - May 17 2007 

By Chris Shaw

Biota (BTA) has announced it will buy CSIRO out of the royalty agreement the two groups had in place with respect to sales of anti-flu drug Relenza and Intersuisse suggests this is supportive of the stock and its Buy rating.

In the broker's view there are two positives from the move, as it now increases the company's net royalty from Relenza sales to 6.75% from 6.5% previously, while it also means it will not have to share any royalties that it may receive as a result of litigation with GSK over that company's distribution of Relenza. This potential settlement offers some upside risk to earnings for the company, so the new deal means it gets to keep all of any benefits that flow through.

Also supporting its positive view is Relenza sales have been increasing strongly, the broker now estimating it will receive royalty payments from GSK this year of as much as $43m, which it suggests is also not currently factored in to the share price.

This strong growth looks set to continue, as GSK has indicated production capacity will double to 30 million units from 15 million previously, so Intersuisse likes the idea of Biota increasing its royalty share by buying our the CSIRO now rather than potentially having to pay more later.

On the broker's estimates it has the stock trading on 13.3x earnings this year and only 8.9x in FY08, which suggests Biota is cheap relative to the broader market. Add in the upside potential from higher royalties and a potential successful settlement and the stock looks cheap in the broker's view.

Intersuisse has a share price target of $2.58, which is close to the middle of its valuation range of $2.10 to $3.13. The stock is not widely covered, the FNArena database showing none of the leading brokers actively research the stock.

Shares in Biota this morning are weaker and at 11.30am were down 2.5c at $1.72, which compares to a range over the past 12 months of $1.13 to $1.90.*

Of course, as always DYOR!


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## Crash (31 May 2007)

What are the thoughts on todays profit announcement, for mine thought they might have upped the numbers for the last quarter?  I guess it is somethign like a $29 million turnaround.  Hopefully this can continue to grow now.


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## Dutchy3 (31 May 2007)

Hi Crash - from my TA perspective I bought this a month or so ago ... the profit turnaround is timely .... took a bit of a run and then fell back so I need this one to now proceed through 1.90ish for my analysis to hold correct.


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## chansw (24 October 2007)

*Biota profit trend stays positive*

October 24, 2007 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22640012-643,00.html

INFLUENZA drug company Biota said today its revenue growth and profitability remains on a positive trend path and has continued into the first quarter of fiscal 2008.

Chief executive Peter Cook said the last financial year was notable for improving profitability, positive cash and growth in revenue from royalties. 

"So there are the major financial measures of our success in fiscal 2007," he told shareholders at the company's annual general meeting. 

"It is worth noting that those trends have continued into the first quarter of fiscal 2008." 

Biota is the maker of Relenza, an drug to flight influenza strains such as bird flu. 

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has exclusive global distribution rights for the drug, but Biota has arguing with GSK about its perceived failure to market Relenza. 

Mr Cook said Biota's drug pipeline is the key to its long term value and that it expects to have more products in phase three in the next three to five years. 

"Biota's favourable cash flows from the royalty generating products in the market gives us the flexibility to consider further clinical development and/or expansion of our pipeline without additional capital raisings," he said. 

"This funding option is non-dilutive to existing shareholders and reduces the overall cost of capital to the company."

"Given the financial markets generally re-rate companies as their products move closer to market approval, share price growth should generate increased returns for shareholders."

"Based on these fundamentals, I am confident that Biota should continue to deliver strong performance over the ensuing years."


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## panache (2 November 2007)

I may be naive but I was wondering why GSK doesn't make a takeover offer for Biota. Surely that would solve the court case problems whilst getting control of Relenza.

This is NOT a rumour.


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## wideboythin (28 December 2007)

*Re: BTA - Biota share purchase plan*

No Comment on this share for a long time. Any feeling on where its going? seems to be very low again, same as july last year where it rebounded strongly. I`d love to here what the feeling is on this one.


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## wideboythin (3 January 2008)

*Re: BTA - Biota share purchase plan*

These guys seem to be rebounding but no one is prepared to make a comment. I have done a little research and they look like a goer. Anyone got a comment on these guys?


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## Crash (3 January 2008)

*Re: BTA - Biota share purchase plan*

Dunno seems like a wounded duck of late, despite some positive predictions earlier last year just keeps drifting downwards.


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## moreld (2 November 2008)

*Re: BTA - Biota share purchase plan*

down at around cash is an even better price. BTA looks good to me as I continue to dig deeper. Biota's pipeline looks good. 

Some questions about management over on hot copper and an issue at the AGM. 
There are a lot of possible catalysts and risks, but risk/reward profile looks good.
A cash flow positive first half is among one of many possible catalysts which include a good quarter for Relenza, no reported problems on LANI, good LANI results, HRV and RSV results. The reverse are all risks. It's biotech some will fail.


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## Jikx (4 March 2009)

*Re: BTA - Biota*

Looks like Relenza's main competitor, Tamiflu, is proving to be a bit a lame duck against the flu:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=aXunoP8Qd7TQ&refer=home

This is mirrored by H5N1's ability to quickly evolve resistance to Tamiflu. Possibility that governments around the world holding emergency stockpiles will have to switch to Relenza, UK having already placed their orders.

This is probably why the share price has bounced off it's recent lows!


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## hem9 (9 March 2009)

G 'day Mates

Just got a tip from my mates regarding the above mentioned stock. My mate who is a pharmacist told me that these guys are producing medicines for influenza, and their market share is going to go up because of the influenza outbreak and the influenza is gaining some resistance to their chief rivals medicines. Can't really find much information about this stock. Does anyone know more about this stock? Thanks guys


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## spottygoose (9 March 2009)

To be honest that news has been out there for a long time. The difference at the moment is that Glaxo, the company that markets it and who were taken to court by Biota for not marketing it properly, is now promoting it. The end result of that will be more orders and the media does seem to have picked up on the Tamiflu (rival medication) resistance story again....


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## Jikx (16 March 2009)

spottygoose said:


> The end result of that will be more orders and the media does seem to have picked up on the Tamiflu (rival medication) resistance story again....




I think there was new research showing that it was largely useless against this years Flu variants. The birdflu resistance to tamiflu I've known about for a number of years, but couldn't really say anything because of lack of publicly released information.

Shares have jumped 25% recently, what's going on here?


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## Sean K (27 April 2009)

Opening way up at 1.15 at the moment. I was going to buy on the open, but such a leap may be risky. On the other hand this flu news has only just started, so maybe there's some legs in it.


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## Prospector (27 April 2009)

Hmm, too late for me, up 78%   I only looked at its charts last week too! 

Would rather this hadnt happened though, this could be the pandemic we have been dreading, ever since I started on this thread.


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## persistentone (27 April 2009)

Can someone summarize what worldwide sales of Tamiflu and Relenza have been, and how much does Biota make under contract for those Relenza sales?


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## michael_selway (27 April 2009)

persistentone said:


> Can someone summarize what worldwide sales of Tamiflu and Relenza have been, and how much does Biota make under contract for those Relenza sales?




HI not bad today!



> Date: 24/4/2009
> Author: Ari Sharp
> Source: The Age --- Page: B3
> Shares in Biota Holdings rose on 23 April 2009 due to a rise in sales of its antiviral inhalant, Relenza. GlaxoSmithKline announced that sales of Relenza rose to $A462 million in the March quarter. Biota shares rose by $A0.125 to $A0.905. However, its share price had already risen, prompting a query by the ASX.
> ...




*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS -3.6 -1.6 2.9 7.7 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *









> Glaxo’s Relenza Beat Rival Tamiflu in Stockpile Sales (Update1)
> Share | Email | Print | A A A
> 
> By Jason Gale, Trista Kelley and Simeon Bennett
> ...


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## persistentone (27 April 2009)

michael_selway said:


> HI not bad today!
> 
> 
> 
> ...




So for the AUD $462M of 1Q2009 revenue, what would be Biota's royalty?

To put that AUD $462M number in context, what were Tamiflu's 1Q2009 revenues?


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## skyQuake (27 April 2009)

Prospector said:


> Hmm, too late for me, up 78%   I only looked at its charts last week too!




I don't think this surge is over yet. The Media will dogpile on and so will punters. Look at how long the bird flu hype took to die down.


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## jonojpsg (27 April 2009)

skyQuake said:


> I don't think this surge is over yet. The Media will dogpile on and so will punters. Look at how long the bird flu hype took to die down.




Hope not, I picked them for May's stock tip                                            Maybe a die down until Friday then take off


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## Sean K (28 April 2009)

Might pull back a bit today. It doesn't look to be that bad to me.

And even BTA are calling the rise overdone.

*Biota says swine flu pandemic speculation overdone as share price soars*

If it does fall over, hope no one is left without a chair.


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## skyQuake (28 April 2009)

ADRs have it at $2.20 AUD equivalent, we'll see if it gets there lol.

http://www.adrbnymellon.com/dr_profile.jsp?cusip=09066S100


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## shag (28 April 2009)

have people no noted no one has used relenza to treat this virus yet
even aus is using is competitor, tamiflu.
they r not the same.


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## persistentone (28 April 2009)

Has anyone read anything regarding the Biota marketing strategy for the human rhinovirus treatment they are currently testing?   Are they planning to take a royalty as with Relenza?


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## persistentone (29 April 2009)

*LANI and RHV Test Results*

Can someone summarize the most recent test results published for Biota's next generation influenza LANI treatment, and separately for its common cold RHV treatment?


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## Aussiejeff (29 April 2009)

kennas said:


> Might pull back a bit today. It doesn't look to be that bad to me.
> 
> And even BTA are calling the rise overdone.
> 
> ...




Yup. "Pull back" is almost an understatement now. 

"Plummet back" might be more the go after only a mere 7 Mexican cases are confirmed by WHO as "swine flu".


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## lthigham (30 April 2009)

Denmark is planning purchase or Relenza. The countries leaders are concerned about resistance to Tamiflu.

http://in.reuters.com/article/rbssHealthcareNews/idINLT89242720090429


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## Sean K (30 April 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Yup. "Pull back" is almost an understatement now.
> 
> "Plummet back" might be more the go after only a mere 7 Mexican cases are confirmed by WHO as "swine flu".



Wonder if that gap will get filled? 

Saw a person on the street this morning with a mask on, and we haven't had a confirmed case yet.


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## lthigham (30 April 2009)

Pandaemic Alert raised to phase 5

"Based on assessment of all available information and following several expert consultations, Dr Margaret Chan, WHO's Director-General raised the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to 5. She stated that all countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans. At this stage, effective and essential measures include heightened surveillance, early detection and treatment of cases, and infection control in all health facilities.
"

http://www.who.int/en/


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## lthigham (30 April 2009)

Increasing production of Relenza

"Chan, who has just raised the pandemic threat level to phase 5 out of a possible 6, also urged companies who make the drugs to ramp up production. Two antiviral drugs -- Relenza, made by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) (GSK.N) and Tamiflu, made by Roche AG ROG.VX and Gilead Sciences Inc."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUKLT671676


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## kincella (1 May 2009)

only 8 dead so far....
more truth in this article than all the stuff written everywhere else for years........................

GOD, save us! We’re all going to die all over again, and from yet another foreign virus. 

“We could have a billion people dying worldwide,” warns the US National Centre for Disaster Preparedness. 

Oops, I misread my notes. That claim is actually from the great bird flu scare of 2005, which in the end killed just 257 people. 

“Apocalypse bug!” cries CNN. “Killer virus,” howls a Newsweek cover. 

Oops again. Those headlines are actually from the great Ebola scare of 1995, which actually killed just 800 people, all in Africa. 

No, the killer virus stalking us this time is swine flu. 

So here’s the swine flu warning from the US Health, Education and Welfare Department: “The projections are that the virus will kill one million Americans.” 

Damn. Wrong again. 


Continue reading 'Column - Scared sick' 
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/
ps expecting quite a few to get burnt..this time around....
its a very badly managed company....I bought in at .50 when there was a 400 mill litigation case....a couple of years ago...went thru the bird flue hype....it went to 2.50...I took some profits.....then watched it slide back down...they rolled over on the litigation....its all hype atm..bet it goes back to .50 within weeks....


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## persistentone (1 May 2009)

kincella said:


> only 8 dead so far....
> more truth in this article than all the stuff written everywhere else for years........................
> 
> GOD, save us! We’re all going to die all over again, and from yet another foreign virus.
> ...




Can you elaborate on why you feel Biota is a very badly managed company?   Their science seems pretty clear and compelling, and virus prevention is certainly a growth market.


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## kincella (1 May 2009)

just start with this article....
then google....what is wrong with the australian drug company biota

http://business.smh.com.au/business/biotas-bitter-pill-for-investors-20080724-3k6w.html


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## persistentone (1 May 2009)

kincella said:


> just start with this article....
> then google....what is wrong with the australian drug company biota
> 
> http://business.smh.com.au/business/biotas-bitter-pill-for-investors-20080724-3k6w.html




Well, yes, that's pretty nasty to settle the case for $20M and have to cover $40M of your own legal expenses to boot.

They are still a decent buy below 60 cents AUD


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## moreld (21 May 2009)

_Wonder if that gap will get filled?_ kennas
It almost did kennas, it almost did. Biota took off again today on no news that I could discern. There was a huge amount of spruiking, pump and dump like, chatter on hotcopper today, so today's fly could be short lived.
Though in the long run Biota are looking better and better value ever day.
I've posted a lot of analysis on Biota at Fusion Investing, so won't go into it here, but in summary.

Solid balance sheet with large cash holding.
Huge cash flows this half thanks to Relenza, $32M in Q1 alone.
Trial results on new flu blockbuster LANI, due any week now.
Other early trails should be reported this year.
Relenza may be the only flu antiviral worth anything if resistance to Tamiflu is acquired by more flu strains.
I am long BTA and have been since I analysed them for Fusion Investing last November. BTA is a riskier investment now, but has more obvious potential as well.


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## Stpt (1 July 2009)

BTA making a classic descending triangle pattern. Bullish with breakout closing above $1.30. Bearish with retreat and break below $1.00.


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## sjx (19 July 2009)

Everyone should take a very strong look at this company and quickly in my _opinion_...

Everything looks tip top. Announcements expected this week. Would appreciate any other input from some of the biotech folks.. anyone else LT, or even recently invested?


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## STYLSH (22 July 2009)

Half year announcemnet released by GSK, it looks like tomorrow may be a good day for Biota.  As a matter of fact, looks like this will be a good year!  Vaccines for 195million doses of Relenza has been received, and production is going to be upped to 190million doses per year!  That is a lot of royalities to come this way !


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## sjx (13 August 2009)

11c a share dividend announcement.. now watch the institutional investors accumulate.. $5 before xmas in my opinion.


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## miso (26 September 2009)

*Shareholder Uprising*

We have to replace the useless, spineless, leeches on the BTA board.

Each member for re-election should be encouraged to post at forums to debate why they should be employed by BTA shareholders, and shareholders should consider being elected as board members against those that should leave. There are a number of shareholders I would vote for in an instant.


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## sjx (26 October 2009)

GSK announces their figures tonight.. royalty figures incoming....................................................................................................................................................................


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## Boggo (26 October 2009)

This has been an outstanding performer in my SMSF and that is just from a charting perspective.

Daily chart below, I am ignoring the daily stop signals, using weekly instead.

(click to expand)


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## miso (8 November 2009)

Not happy with the management?

Make a protest vote and vote at the AGM from the comfort of your computer.

 To be valid, your proxy must be received no later than 10.00am on Tuesday 10 November 2009


Find the site,

linkmarketservices.com.au

armed with the necessary information,

Issuer Biota Holdings Limited (selected from the menu.)

Holder Identifier X000xxxxxxx (It usually begins with an "I" for an Issuer sponsored holding or an "X" for a CHESS holding. My HIN from Comsec was xxxxxxx, from a Chess Holding Statement it was 000xxxxxxx, it needed to be X000xxxxxxx to be accepted)

Surname or Company Name (obvious I hope)

Australian Postcode or Country Code (obvious I hope)

"Validate" should taken you to your BTA portfolio details. Select "Proxy Voting" in the list on the right.

The Select Meeting page

The AGM is already selected, tick the "Declaration"and click "OK"

(Obvious I am describing what I will vote for simplicity, you are free to make your own choices.)

The first Lodge your instructions page presents you with the "Proxy Allocation" and "Appointment of Proxyholder", I selected all my securities and appointed the Chairman of the Meeting as the Proxyholder. "OK"

The second Lodge your instructions page presents you with the Resolutions, the chance to vote and the chance to change you mind later wih the "Note if you have already lodged your vote, this vote will override it."

2A TO RE-ELECT PROFESSOR IAN GUST AS A DIRECTOR
2B TO ELECT MR RICHARD HILL AS A DIRECTOR
2C TO ELECT DR JIM FOX AS A DIRECTOR
3 APPROVAL OF RETURN OF CAPITAL TO SHAREHOLDERS
4 ADOPTION OF REMUNERATION REPORT (NON BINDING, ADVISORY VOTE)

I voted "Against" Resolutions 2A,2B,2C, and 4.
I voted "For" Resolution 3.

"OK"

Now a Voting instruction page displays your Voting Summary.

"OK"

finally the Thank you page,

"Thank you
Thank you for taking the time to register your voting instruction.
Your vote was registered on Sunday, 8 November 2009 at x:xx:xx PM

Your receipt number for this transaction is W00000xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
You could either print your instructions or we can email them to you.

(I picked email because of my printers issues, "back")


Click the Ok button to complete your vote.

"OK"


Again a Thank you page,

"Thank You
Your Proxy Vote details have been updated as requested."


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## moreld (9 February 2010)

Biota's revenue mix for the last five years.
With earnings due and $56.7 million in anticipated royalties I decided now was a good time to look back at Biota’s revenue over the last five years.


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## pixel (22 July 2010)

It seems that somebody realised $67M isn't a bad royalty income after all.
The recent sell-off looks definitely overdone.

Disclosure: I hold already and will average up if current support holds.
Targets $1.24 and $1.35.


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## nunthewiser (22 July 2010)

Cheers for the chart Pixel.

I too have taken a small position in this as a POSITION trade.

The tech and fundamental stars have alligned on this one for a bit and on a personal view i figured it was worth a play.

Stoplosses do apply as with all other trades.

Have a good day


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## nunthewiser (27 July 2010)

Looks like its just you and me Pixel ..... Nice move this morning so far.

You still in ?.....

Should show up on a few TECH radars soon if not already


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## pixel (27 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Looks like its just you and me Pixel ..... Nice move this morning so far.
> 
> You still in ?.....
> 
> Should show up on a few TECH radars soon if not already




absolutely, Gero
And I did top up sub-$1. Holding enough now.
And it seems some techies have indeed noticed and begun buying up.


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## nunthewiser (30 July 2010)

FWIW.

I have exited my BTA postion today for a small profit.(99.5) It hit my trailing stop and they were the rules i set.
I will re-enter on a clear break of 105.will also look very closely if it makes the 90 to mid 90,s area
I could be wrong on my exit but thems the breaks, i can always enter another day.

Top of watchlist for now.


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## desmo (15 January 2011)

Any fundamentalists got some news behind the recent SP rise? I'm a techie and a holder. Wondering if it's a glitch or the start of something bigger?


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## subi1 (15 January 2011)

desmo said:


> Any fundamentalists got some news behind the recent SP rise? I'm a techie and a holder. Wondering if it's a glitch or the start of something bigger?




I think it is flu season in the Northern Hemsiphere and they have 2 products being sold(maybe 3 if you include Intravenous Zanamavir).

Relenza through GLAXO
Inavir through Daiichi Sankyo

Biota has also been seeking development funding in the U.S. through BARDA. I think it was mentioned in the AGM releases?

I think there is plenty of info around if you want to look including articles in the press.


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## pixel (15 January 2011)

nunthewiser said:


> FWIW.
> 
> I have exited my BTA postion today for a small profit.(99.5) It hit my trailing stop and they were the rules i set.
> I will re-enter on a clear break of 105.will also look very closely if it makes the 90 to mid 90,s area
> ...



 That was a good exit, nun 
But since then, we also got a few good entries and re-entries; some of them I took, but through the entire 6-7 months, I held on to a core position to avoid having to scramble for stock in a case like the latest breakout.



Have taken some profit (about a quarter posi) in case we revisit those gaps down there. But it's even money those gaps can remain open for months, if not years.

PS: Sorry desmo, I'm a techie myself and can only guess at fundamental reasons. Subi1 could be on the right track, but the chart should show us what's happening regardless why.


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## Market Depth (15 January 2011)

Been trading BTA for many many years. It does 'Bounce Around' a far bit Might be time for me to bank a little bit over the coming weeks


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## Market Depth (10 February 2011)

Are you still on this one Tech? It's pushing higher.


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## tech/a (16 February 2011)

Yes I was!!

$3000 profit turned into a $450 loss by the time my stop
(The second one) got hit just as I got back First one went at $1.42 but the second which i hadnt adjusted up laid open till hit!
The joy of the Building industry---when site calls You must go!

But on the + side AAD +$1875.
Not all tears.


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## suhm (16 February 2011)

Not to sure why it got hammered so hard, dropped a bundle today, still in profit though. I guess maybe the market was expecting them to announce a licenscing deal but not sure why that would be so as that would be a price sensitive announcement and the loss was expected given the low royalty numbers for relenza and high expenditure for clinical trials.
I'm expecting it to be a painful few months and for my profits to disappear given the price action. Probably shouldn't fall in love with a stock but can't really sell out now given any LANI ROW deal should net it a motza given that it is already outselling relenza and tamiflu in Japan from launch.


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## Market Depth (16 February 2011)

Caught me off gaurd somewhat today as well. As soon as it opened lower on a gap down I was scrambling for the sell button. Did I mention it bounces around a fair bit?


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## Sean K (12 January 2013)

Is this still being traded in Aust?

With the flu epidemic hitting the US I thought they'd be all over the news.


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## pixel (12 January 2013)

kennas said:


> Is this still being traded in Aust?
> 
> With the flu epidemic hitting the US I thought they'd be all over the news.




http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=bta&timeframe=D&period=M6
they sold out to America and are delisted from the ASX.
Very much p!$$ed-off, all of us who supported them through the lean years.
(Someone warned me several years ago that t he directors were not very loyal to their shareholders. 'nuff said.)


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## burglar (12 January 2013)

pixel said:


> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=bta&timeframe=D&period=M6
> they sold out to America and are delisted from the ASX.
> Very much p!$$ed-off, all of us who supported them through the lean years.
> (Someone warned me several years ago that t he directors were not very loyal to their shareholders. 'nuff said.)




Once delisted it is difficult to find charts, prices & reports!


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## rcm617 (13 January 2013)

It's trading under BOTA on the Nasdaq. Has been fairly uninspiring over there since listing on the Nasdaq, although has been ticking up the last few days.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BOTA


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## pixel (13 January 2013)

rcm617 said:


> It's trading under BOTA on the Nasdaq. Has been fairly uninspiring over there since listing on the Nasdaq, although has been ticking up the last few days.
> http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BOTA




That would be thanks to the Australian Taxpayer, who gave them some $4M for past R&D.
No Relenza sales, and Lanivir royalties amounted to peanuts.

Anyway, I am currently not trading anything outside Australia; almost 2000 shares and hundreds of options give me far more opportunities than I can possibly handle. When they announced they'd desert us, I picked a reasonable time and price point to exit. Still a big loss from the last lot, although, over the years, I've just about broken even. That experience has only reinforced my resolve not to believe in funnymentals, opinions, rosy outlooks, and forecasts - the reasons I held on to a few BTA, no matter how small, against the chart.


----------

