# Bitcoin price discussion and analysis



## greggles

I didn't see a thread specifically on Bitcoin price discussion, so I thought I'd start one.

What a run it has been. Bitcoin is closing in on US$10,000 and its incredible rise in value must rank as one of the greatest booms of modern times, delivering one of the largest returns in a relatively short space of time.

Here's the story over the past four and a half years. How much long can it keep going like this?


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## Wysiwyg

I opened an account at around BTCUSD$4500 with broker ACX when poster, Lifechoices, brought it to our attention. Feared the pullback -> crash and didn't buy. Should have been on it years ago, (laugh).


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## greggles

Wysiwyg said:


> I opened an account at around BTCUSD$4500 with broker ACX when poster, Lifechoices, brought it to our attention. Feared the pullback -> crash and didn't buy. Should have been on it years ago, (laugh).




I think it's still got quite a distance left to run. I've been noticing the mainstream media has been beating the Bitcoin drum quite a bit recently and the focus on the return it has generated has gotten the punters a little excited.

You know when news.com.au is covering it that it has become something of interest to the Instagram/Facebook set: http://www.news.com.au/finance/mone...e/news-story/f9e382656dacb1bcb2b08cde0e3dcb14


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## greggles

Bitcoin cracks $10,000 and $11,000 in one day. 




I keep watching, waiting for it to retrace, but it just keeps on surging. Incredible.


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## CanOz

CME will have the futures listed in December....I suppose it will take a few weeks for the brokers to take up the instrument if the liquidity is adequate. Then let the bots start...maybe we'll get a year out of it before they completely rule it...


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## galumay

greggles said:


> How much long can it keep going like this?




Until it stops! But the fall will be even sharper than the rise, the fact that there is no intrinsic value at all means once there are no 'greater fools', it becomes a bottomless well. 

It will be a spectacular ride to observe, from the sidelines!


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## greggles

galumay said:


> Until it stops! But the fall will be even sharper than the rise, the fact that there is no intrinsic value at all means once there are no 'greater fools', it becomes a bottomless well.
> 
> It will be a spectacular ride to observe, from the sidelines!




How right you are. Bitcoin plunged from US$11,582 to lows of US$9,586 today, although it's currently hovering around US$10,422. Talk about a roller-coaster ride. Certainly not an investment for the faint-hearted that's for sure.


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## explod

My old finance dealer handed me a copy the other day of a recent book "The Peoples Money. Bitcoin"  Adam Tepper 2017.  Very sceptical myself even of paper money but it does set out an interesting case.  Goes very well into the history of money from ancient exchange.   I'll report back


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## greggles

John McAfee will eat his dick if Bitcoin isn't US$1,000,000 by the end of 2020.


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## T0BY

greggles said:


> John McAfee will eat his dick if Bitcoin isn't US$1,000,000 by the end of 2020.




The only thing controlling the "value" of bitcoinis fear and greed. It will go the way of the tulips.


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## notting

It's the greatest short on earth.
Put your entire value on it if you can short it somehow!
Don't leverage because it could go to 100,000 but it will end up close to zero, cash in then.


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## SuperGlue

"Uncle Sam is coming after your bitcoin gains"

Australia will be next......

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uncle-sam-is-coming-after-your-bitcoin-gains-2017-11-30


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## galumay

notting said:


> It's the greatest short on earth.
> Put your entire value on it if you can short it somehow!
> Don't leverage because it could go to 100,000 but it will end up close to zero, cash in then.




Totally agree, once in a lifetime opportunity. What mechanism is there to short it though?


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## T0BY

galumay said:


> Totally agree, once in a lifetime opportunity. What mechanism is there to short it though?



CFDs, I know Admiral Markets offer bitcoin/usd cash. I believe it's at 10:1 leverage.


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## OmegaTrader

galumay said:


> Totally agree, once in a lifetime opportunity. What mechanism is there to short it though?




If it gets listed on cme i would like to short- it is getting launched soon.

 But when does the mania end that is the hard part. An option would be better but would have to be expensive given the volatility. The other route is the bucket shop, but that has its own downsides. The must be alot inefficiencies for arbitrage and relative value given the market structure.

If does spectacularly, that could cause some counter party issues, the margin may not be enough.

my limited 2 cents


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## cutz

galumay said:


> Totally agree, once in a lifetime opportunity. What mechanism is there to short it though?




I have been eyeing this one off for a little while.

Doesn't seem possible at the moment, could explain its massive run.

The only method I would use is long WTFOM puts but for obvious reasons this instrument won't be available anytime soon.


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## skyQuake

Most CFD providers allow you to short it. 

Personally, I wouldnt.


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## dutchie

A “flash crash” on the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange has left customers demanding answers and refunds, with many claiming to have lost thousands of dollars.

The price of cryptocurrencies NEO, OMG, and ETP crashed as much as 90% in minutes on the Bitfinex exchange on Wednesday before quickly bouncing back to former levels.

And then people complain about losing money!!


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## OmegaTrader

Of course OTC always makes you feel like the incentives are skewed.

But gong on an exchange will give it credibility.

https://www.deribit.com/main#/options


To make a profit almost  atm put at 11000 is about .1918 bit coin or 19.18 %

and that is for 117 days. That means you need a 19.8% fall just to break even.

If you take a long term option -You better hope it implodes that year

OTM is better but is still has to fall a fair amount.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-become-available-in-fall-after-cftc-approval

https://www.coindesk.com/cme-begin-trading-bitcoin-futures-december-18/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...top-here-s-how-you-can-short-the-digital-coin

IDK at least with a put option you can sleep at night.

Say you have 30% margin and it goes up 200% overnight  what is there to stop that. Or the other way it goes down 90% with only 30% margin and you are long.

Then the dominoes go bang...


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## SuperGlue

"CBOE Global Markets Inc. CBOE, +0.54% said Monday that it will launch trading of bitcoin futures on Sunday, Dec. 10. Trading will begin, under the ticker symbol* "XBT,"* at the start of global trading hours at 6 p.m. ET, and *will be free through December. *"

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...rading-to-be-free-through-december-2017-12-04


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## greggles

The Bitcoin juggernaut just keeps on powering forward. Sub US$10,000 to US$16,000 in a week with little sign of slowing down.


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## SuperGlue

"..why are prices higher in India than elsewhere? "
"...Bitcoin price in the country up to 20% higher than international prices."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-42266568

Arbitrage trading anyone?


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## Wysiwyg

Looks like an impalement is happening. Oh it is so so eventual.


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## greggles

Wysiwyg said:


> Looks like an impalement is happening. Oh it is so so eventual.




These intraday swings are incredible. $14,500 to $17,000, then down to $15,000, back to $17,000 and then down again to 14,500, right where we started. At the moment, Bitcoin is just a giant roller coaster ride.


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## Wysiwyg

My FX broker has the BTC/USD Daily High at $16635.71. No central exchange yet so I suppose the price varies quite a bit.


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## Smurf1976

Roughly 17 million Bitcoin in circulation and valued at say $15,000 each so that's about $250 billion.

That's not massive but it's equivalent to more than half the market cap of Berkshire Hathaway, Amazon or ExxonMobil so it's of at least some significance now.

If the price went to $50,000 which doesn't seem out of the question given recent moves then based on a quick Google search that's about 1% of annual global GDP and a greater valuation than any publicly listed company.

Or you could say it's equivalent to the entire worldwide production of oil for about 6 weeks. 

Just an observation that this is becoming rather significant in terms of the actual $ value involved both in absolute terms and relative to other things.


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## Wysiwyg

greggles said:


> These intraday swings are incredible. $14,500 to $17,000, then down to $15,000, back to $17,000 and then down again to 14,500, right where we started. At the moment, Bitcoin is just a giant roller coaster ride.



In trading parlance, the range has become extreme. My hat doffed to Life Choices for that discussion back at BTC $4500.


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## Smurf1976

Smurf1976 said:


> Or you could say it's equivalent to the entire worldwide production of oil for about 6 weeks.



Clarification - that's at $15,000 per Bitcoin.


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## greggles

Bitcoin continues its run north today. On the verge of cracking US$17,000.


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## cutz

Had a look at Bitcoin futures ( XBTF8 ),

What keeps the price pegged to the underlying  ( well sort off ) ?

Normally on other cash settled futures markets professionals will keep prices in check by selling (buying) the future and buying (selling) the underlying, forcing the two together after pricing in dividends / interest rates ect.

How does this work with bitcoin ??


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## tech/a

Interesting

I think there is a great opportunity here and it’s not short
It’s not necessarily pegged to Bitcoin alone!


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## notting

I see a great opportunity too, and it's not short, it's GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
All the logic is about central banks and an independent easily exchangable value.
Well what is bloody wrong with Gold!?
Oh, it's not something easily used in boarder-less transactions.  Well actually it is but OK technically it's physical, even though it isn't in most ways it's traded!

So if Gold isn't going off the charts or at least tracking this trend to some degree then something is seriously out of whack!  That'd be Bitcoin.
So let all the people who couldn't create a wallet buy it through the new contract.  Then dump on it!  Shouldn't take too long.


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## sptrawler

Can I buy a burger at macca's, with bitcoin?
I really haven't been keeping up with this, can someone point me in the direction, of how to find out what it is?


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## luutzu

My brother send this joke. 

Marty McFly was wrong to pick up the horse racing Almanac.


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## So_Cynical

notting said:


> I see a great opportunity too, and it's not short, it's GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
> All the logic is about central banks and an independent easily exchangable value.
> Well what is bloody wrong with Gold!?




BTC is a massive bubble, will come screaming down soon enough, as a currency its a total failure.

My idea is Silver, there's lots of it and much of it is in easily identifiable quantity's like junk silver coins etc, so all that is needed are a few depository's and a blockchain central register of sorts and bingo, a digital currency that is actually backed my something.

Sign up to an account, deposit (send in silver) and your account is credited in silver weight, buy and sell whatever online in grams or part there of, a proper real digital currency backed by physical, that is not issued by any govt or authority.
~


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## tech/a

There are more and more places accepting Bitcoin as a currency (And others)
You can trade .0001 of your Bitcoin for whatever if your currency is accepted.
I'm considering accepting some Bitcoin as payment for my goods and services.

If people keep buying it and people keep accepting it as a currency and there is
a limited number available then I cant see any reason why it wont continue to
be subject to Supply and Demand pressures just like any other commodity.

If the demand is too great then other currencies also will take a hold.

It wont be long and Govts will be on board.
Which by the way will have a massive effect on any new currency.
Watch what happens if it starts taking away from Govt coffers!
Of all the concerns Govt interference is my greatest.

Perfect------- E commerce is here to STAY!


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## notting

tech/a said:


> If people keep buying it and people keep accepting it as a currency and there is
> a limited number available then I cant see any reason why it wont continue to
> be subject to Supply and Demand pressures just like any other commodity.




There is no limit to it because there is no limit to the possibility of these types of currencies.
Even the world bank is looking to develop it's own one!
It's worthless!!!


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## notting

BOOM - 
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/07/bitcoin-could-be-the-biggest-bubble-in-history--heres-how.html


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## kid hustlr

I called IB tonight and before taking me to the switch there's a prompt saying 'if you want to trade bitcoin futures please follow instructions XYZ'

Mania.

Charts all look bullish to me - this has got to end in tears at some stage but at this stage I don't see why you'd short it.

I've been 'half' aware of this stuff for a while but never pulled the trigger to get involved - has proven to be a very financially costly mistake the run up across the crpyto currency space must have changed a lot of lives.

Can't bring myself to participate now


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## skyQuake

kid hustlr said:


> Charts all look bullish to me - this has got to end in tears at some stage but at this stage I don't see why you'd short it.



Some poor chaps have shorted it
https://www.nsx.com.au/ftp/news/021734516.PDF
This update is from the 30th Nov. Bitcoin has doubled since then!


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## greggles

kid hustlr said:


> Mania.




The mainstream media won't shut up about Bitcoin. It's become an obsession. I think people are piling into it because they're afraid that they'll miss out on the best chance for easy money this year. This will only inflate the bubble. Of course, maybe I'm wrong and John McAfee is correct. Time will tell, but it's certainly the most interesting financial phenomenon of recent times.


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## galumay

"...Only an idiot would short Bitcoin." mmmm...that sort of hysterical nonsense is enough to make me want to short it straight away!! 

Its got all the hallmarks of a nuclear time-bomb in the making. Every single box is getting ticked for catastrophe.


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## notting

Fairly good discussion.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/bitcoin-battle-rages-on.html

I maintain it is the greatest short I have ever seen.

Price now - $17610 USD
$23147 AUD


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## watsons

I invest into Bitcoin and what they are missing is that there are companies accepting Bitcoin but many also have pulled away e.g. Steam.


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## greggles

Bitcoin.com co-founder has sold all of his Bitcoins and calls the digital currency "extremely high risk".

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...s-bitcoin-com-co-founder-20171218-p4yxty.html


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## notting

You'd imagine he probably knows what he is talking about 

The insane price surge noted by  Bitcoins cofounder and CTO, Emil Oldenburg, has caused him to be extremely skeptical of bitcoin’s future.
“I would say an investment in bitcoin is right now the riskiest investment you can make. There’s an extremely high risk,”


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## sptrawler

I don't know if this means anything, but the co founder of bitcoins, has sold out completely.

http://www.forexlive.com/news/!/co-founder-of-bitcoincom-sells-all-his-bitcoins-says-20171218

https://finance.nine.com.au/2017/12/19/13/11/bitcoin-dot-com-cofounder-sells-all-of-his-bitcoin


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## DB008

sptrawler said:


> I don't know if this means anything, but the co founder of bitcoins, has sold out completely.




I think it has to be said, clearly, that he was the co-founder of "bitcoin.com"

Nothing to do with Bitcoin itself.

And what did he sell/buy to? Bitcoin Cash. 

Now, lets understand what this all means. Simple terms :


Roger Ver made millions of $$$ by getting into Bitcoin in the early days
His was one of the first people to accept Bitcoin as online payments
He had a falling out with Bitcoin development team
Has now switched over to the Bitcoin Cash camp
Tries to discredit Bitcoin any way possible
Roger Ver owns the Bitcoin.com domain name
Roger Ver probably pressured Oldeburg to leave Bitcoin and join him at Bitcoin Cash
As I said in another earlier post, there is a propaganda war taking place between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. Once Bitcoin's Lightning Network protocol roles out for Bitcoin (very close), Bitcoin Cash will drop and Bitcoin will take off (my theory of course). Looks like the Bitcoin Cash camp is clutching at straws and trying at any means possible to stab Bitcoin before Lightning gets implemented.


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## notting

DB008 said:


> there is a propaganda war taking place between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.




What about these guys? more propaganda I suppose -


Warren Buffet described it as a mirage and Jamie Dimon called it a fraud.

*CEO of cryptocurrency play up 1,000% in 2 days to $3.1 billion: 'This market cap is not justified'*

Longfin's CEO and Chairman Venkat Meenavalli said on CNBC's "Fast Money" that the "market cap is not justified."
Longfin shares are up more than 1,000 percent to a market value above $3 billion after announcing Friday it was buying Ziddu.com, a company focused on the blockchain technology behind bitcoin with zero revenue.
Filings for the deal reveal a confusing relationship between Meenavalli and Ziddu.
I really like the mirage analogy.  I came up with exactly the same way of describing it before I read what Buffet had said. (That's one thing we have in common )

Why is it a mirage? Because nothing is backing it, it's value is literally a thought bubble.  When everyone decides it's not worth anything that's exactly what it will be worth.  It's not like a business that will keep going, or gold that at least has some physical representation that cannot be created out of thin air, or a currency that represents a countries wealth and prospects.


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## Wysiwyg

How soon is the morning news "Bitcoin crashes 50% overnight".  Really, what type of people take on such risk? I can't see Neville No Idea throwing their yearly savings at it.


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## DB008

FYI

BCash manipulation on GDAX/Coinbase

​


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## sptrawler

Unless the Governments of the World are going to underpin it, it has to have some basis for its value, otherwise it is underpinned by a brain fart. 
No doubt the bitcoin idea, is preceding the cashless society, which the Governments want.
But the system isn't geared up for it yet, when it is, I'm sure the bitcoin model will be adopted or a derivative of it.
Actually I bet the Government is wrapped, that this is unfolding, it is a softener and free pre-roll out advertising, for cashless systems. Hmmm
Just my opinion.


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## tech/a

Don’t think they are rapt

Unless the currency allows tracing —— it can’t be traced.
Dealers/cartels/weapons dealers/off shore errr investors
They are all rapt.
Ripple can be tracked. Ethereum Litecoin Bitcoin etc can’t.

But it’s here to stay 
The perfect solution I doubt has been invented YET

In the meantime ——-


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## Kryzz

DB008 said:


> FYI
> 
> BCash manipulation on GDAX/Coinbase




What are your thoughts on Dash and Monero being added to Coinbase DB008? Lot's of rumours going around at the moment, could attribute to the recent push in Ripple too


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## DB008

Kryzz, l don't have crystal ball - if l did....

Not sure if you can predict what coin will be added to Coinbase. I'd imagine if they announced it, that coin would rise like crazy, even before the launch.

I think that Coinbase is attracting a lot of heat at the moment because of their BCash launch.
Read the second line....
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coinba...ruptly-halting-bitcoin-cash-launch-1513766034

Like l said before, total insider trading. However, as crypto trading isn't regulated - how can they get charged with anything...??

Its the friggin' wild west at the moment.

Maybe the best way for Coinbase to go about this is to add something like 50 - 100 coins at once, not 1. Spread it out.

Monero and Dash both have had huge run ups in the last few months. Could go either way


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## greggles

While Bitcoin did plunge from US$19,500 to around US$12,000 in a day, it has since bounced back to almost US$15,000 in the last 12 hours.




John McAfee claims the plunge is because of Christmas and we will see a huge post-Christmas boom.


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## DaveDaGr8

And it just dived back to 12800 1 minute ago.


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## greggles

DaveDaGr8 said:


> And it just dived back to 12800 1 minute ago.



Coindesk is showing US$14,000 at the moment. Where are you getting your price information from?


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## skyQuake

B


greggles said:


> Coindesk is showing US$14,000 at the moment. Where are you getting your price information from?



Bitfinex always a lower than the other exchanges during busts and higher during booms

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitfinex/btcusd


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## DaveDaGr8

https://cryptowat.ch/bitfinex/btcusd/1m

But yeah there is discrepancy between the exchanges.


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## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> How soon is the morning news "Bitcoin crashes 50% overnight".  Really, what type of people take on such risk? I can't see Neville No Idea throwing their yearly savings at it.



Lordy, lordy. Hanging onto my every word.


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## Smurf1976

This seems far too volatile to me given that it's supposed to be a currency.

Suppose that someone sold their house a few days ago and agreed t payment in Bitcoin, the agreed price being 39 Bitcoins.

The buyer could easily hedge their position, just buy Bitcoins on the day the contract was signed, but the seller will be losing quite a bit of sleep since what they thought was going to be AUD $1 million is now just $700K and could be pretty much anything by the time settlement takes place. Needless to say there's no chance the buyer will be letting them out of that contract!

It's just far too volatile to use as a medium of exchange for real goods and services of significant value so far as I'm concerned. I see real potential in the technology though, just not this current use as an incredibly volatile currency.


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## notting

Here's how it travels


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## tech/a

As the title is Bitcoin Discussion and Analysis Ill post this here.
Hopefully we will get some meaningful discussion and less
of this reactive " Henny Penny The Sky is falling " stuff!!

So after a very volatile session I think BITCOIN has shown a
strong area of support. certainly in the shorter term.
As an introduction to

*Control volume. (C)*
It has more clout the longer the time frame.

Here I look at 2 Time frames both 4 hr bars
One is a 2 week chart and the other a 4 day chart.

The 2 week charts shows strong support.
The 4 day chart shows how hard it is going to be for Bitcoin to
make new highs.
Si I think we have found a top for quite a while as Accumulation
and distribution fight it out.

The levels are very clear. Anything lower and sustained below $17500 AU
is very weak---but as can be seen value seems to appear to the big end of
town at these levels.





*4 day chart *


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## tech/a

So lets have a look at a few others.

*BCASH*

As expected seeing its big brother is similar




*Ethereum* is doing very well and showing strength in support.




*Ripple* not as strong as Erthereum but not as weak as Bitcoin and Bcash


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## tech/a

And finally an example of how a very high volume and range bar influences price over time.

*Bitcoin Daily


*


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## skyQuake

Hey tech why are you looking at BTC mkts charts? They just track bitfinex (mostly) which does 50-100x more volume. (5-10k/hr vs 100s)


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## tech/a

Cause I’m using them

Thanks for the heads up


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## Triple B

Contract Unit 5 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)
Price Quotation USD per BTC
Trading Hours CME Globex: Sunday - Friday 6:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. (5:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m. CT) with a 60-minute break each day beginning at 5:00 p.m. (4:00 p.m. CT)
CME ClearPort: Sunday - Friday 6:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. (5:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m. CT) with a 60-minute break each day beginning at 5:00 p.m. (4:00 p.m. CT)
Minimum Price Fluctuation $5.00 per bitcoin=$25.00
Product Code CME Globex: BTC
CME ClearPort: BTC
Clearing: BTC
Listed Contracts Monthly contracts listed for the nearest 2 months in the March quarterly cycle (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec) plus the nearest 2 serial months not in the March quarterly cycle.
Settlement Method Financially Settled
Termination Of Trading Trading terminates at 4:00 p.m. London time on the last Friday of the contract month. If that day is not a business day in both the UK and the US, trading terminates on the preceding day that is a business day for both the UK and the US.

*

CME * EQUITY INDEX BITCOIN FUTURES BTC 01/2018 01/2018 
MAINTENANCE MARGIN       $30,391 USD
Maintenance vol                   90.000%


Thought I would post for anyone interested , with a spare $30k


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## DB008

Quick CNBC clip.

Puts it into perspective!

​


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## sptrawler

It is amazing, but what are you buying?


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## DB008

sptrawler said:


> It is amazing, but what are you buying?




Same as AUD, but this is online. What's the difference?

Currency to buy things online, digital age
You own it, not the Government
It is decentralized
I can pay anyone with a wallet/address, anywhere in the world for fractions of a cent, quickly


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## sptrawler

I must be honest and I'm really having trouble, getting my head around it.
I feel like I would be just getting sucked into a gigantic whirlpool, of hype and promise, with no underlying substance.
I know there is no underlying substance with the fiat system, but there is an underlying confidence in its sustainability, as all the Governments work under its regulation.
I also know the U.S has undermined that confidence with the consolidated debt fiasco and the sub prime loans.
Also the U.S has further undermined the fiat system, by abusing its status as the reserve currency and forcing up value of linked currencies, thereby reducing their competitiveness.
However, it still is the system of choice, I can't go to the pub and pay 0.000001 of a bitcoin for a schooner.
I can't go to Woolies and when it says are you paying in cash or card, it doesn't say or bitcoin or a derivative.
I just can't see how it will be a goer, unless the governments start recognising it as a currency, if they do then it will really fly.
It just seems like the big mac currency valuation of a few years ago, with much more underlying code and algorithm behind it.


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## sptrawler

I guess the other problem is, how many crypto currencies can be generated? is it regulated in any way, or are they only limited by the the programming skills, and computer capacity?
So how does mainstream cope with new crypto currencies, at the shop level? 
I want to pay in bitcoin, ripple, bitcoin lite or some new one that comes out next week.
It just seems a bit weird.


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## moXJO

Heard that E*TRADE - 35 years in existence, fewer concurrent users than 3 year old Bittrex.


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## greggles

Bitcoin starting to look a little unwell. Is the party over?


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## galumay

greggles said:


> Bitcoin starting to look a little unwell. Is the party over?




I doubt it, I think this ponzi scheme is too well designed and run to just have one peak and crash. I think it will go again and milk some more suckers.


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## greggles

galumay said:


> I doubt it, I think this ponzi scheme is too well designed and run to just have one peak and crash. I think it will go again and milk some more suckers.



I suspect you're probably correct galumay.

As expected, John McAfee has an excuse for the plunge. Perhaps he's right?


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## moXJO

It did something similar when it hit $1000 a few years back I think. I vaguely remember it dropping big time then as well.
It can be hard to tell where the bottoms will be.The true believers are staying fast.


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## Smurf1976

The whole point of a currency is to be  a medium of exchange.

Would anyone sign a contract priced in Bitcoin and requiring payment at a future date? House or car purchase, employment, anything of significant value?

I seriously doubt it. An AUD $500K property could end up being sold for anything from $ millions to loose change by the time settlement occurs which is way too uncertain for any normal vendor or buyer. Even the local servo wouldn’t go near it because the price of fuel in Bitcoin could change significantly between when I picked up the nozzle and went into the shop to pay for the fuel.

It’s just too volatile for its intended use in my view. Nothing wrong with speculating on it though.


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## tech/a

greggles said:


> Bitcoin starting to look a little unwell. Is the party over?
> 
> View attachment 85752




And what an opportunity that turned out to be!
Most know I'm in Ripple.
Currently approx. 100% gain.
At worst lately $1.03c 21%gain

Most would be happy with 21% a year!


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## tech/a

These sort of Gyrations will knock out the gamblers.

Those who are in it for the long haul take advantage of these
massive spikes down.
The foundation is built from those who see the long-term future and stick around.

If your good and you can trade ---- then this sort of Volatility is pure GOLD.
The DAX - on steroids!


----------



## greggles

Is Bitcoin recreating the 'archetypal bubble' chart created by Dr Jean-Paul Rodrigue?


----------



## skyQuake

The institutional investors chunk is missing.


----------



## kid hustlr

skyQuake said:


> The institutional investors chunk is missing.




True point.

Where do you stand on this SQ? Long term upside or merely a punters dream which will crash and burn soon enough?


----------



## skyQuake

kid hustlr said:


> True point.
> 
> Where do you stand on this SQ? Long term upside or merely a punters dream which will crash and burn soon enough?



I believe in the underlying tech. Bitcoin is just... good to trade.
The first web 1.0 companies were not the ones that that lead the final stages of 2000 boom/bust. I believe it will lose its dominance to altcoins sooner or later
Curious to see if we can have a proper bust without big$ institutional ownership...


----------



## notting

Note the selling volume out of the Asian exchanges on the US holiday and buying volume the next day in the same price range.
Some good reasons for a bounce which happened.
Now it needs to sustain and get up higher tonight. to keep the believers in the 'buying opportunity' on board for a bit longer!!!
Otherwise BTC is going to test 7870-6600 ish soon! ( at which time the rest will make lower lows' and the blood bath will continue with that)


----------



## So_Cynical

skyQuake said:


> Curious to see if we can have a proper bust without big$ institutional ownership...




A large chunk is held by the first movers and true believers, accumulated back when a simple desktop PC could produce a coin or 2 per day, and a pizza cost 10000 BTC, then there are the kids who threw a lousy couple of hundred at it and have since become true believers.

Can you have a true bust without the institutions and leverage..?


----------



## greggles

While world markets plummet, so does Bitcoin.


----------



## tech/a

This is un expected?


----------



## satanoperca

Tech/A you did say you were going kamikaze, you just weren't expecting the market to listen and follow.


----------



## greggles

Bitcoin back over US$10,000 today after staging an impressive recovery from its low of around US$6,000 eleven days ago.


----------



## tech/a

Still looking like a Cheshire Duck.
Average .84c now $1.42


----------



## DB008

​


----------



## greggles

Things looking a bit grim for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency fad starting to wane a little I wonder?


----------



## jjbinks

It's time to short!


----------



## moXJO

I think we can easily halve from here. Everyone lost interest for now. And it ain't moving at the current prices.


----------



## greggles

moXJO said:


> I think we can easily halve from here. Everyone lost interest for now. And it ain't moving at the current prices.



All the hype of six months ago seems to have evaporated. It was a glorious run to US$19,000, but it appears that reality is now beginning to set in. 

I wonder how the guy who sold his home and all his possessions to invest in Bitcoin is feeling now: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/didi-taihuttu-sold-everything-for-bitcoin-fans-2017-12


----------



## satanoperca

I have contacted Didi, as I have some new tulips to sell, very special, will change the tulip market place and my new tulip breed is based on open source, so in time anyone can copy it, but don't worry about that, it is a new frontier, will change the tulip world.

Not asking much for each unit at the moment, but the upside is massive, just need more people to increase demand and believe that one day they can be rich tooooop.


----------



## tech/a

greggles said:


> All the hype of six months ago seems to have evaporated. It was a glorious run to US$19,000, but it appears that reality is now beginning to set in.
> 
> I wonder how the guy who sold his home and all his possessions to invest in Bitcoin is feeling now: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/didi-taihuttu-sold-everything-for-bitcoin-fans-2017-12




Did you notice this guy is Dutch!

Bought some more Ripple at .63c
A little down now at an average of .78c


----------



## noirua

Quite a lot of thought going on in this market.  Over 1,500 different coins and Bitcoin is adjusting to all the many events as well as the new lines of asset backed coins and gold backed cards. Always a guess but maybe leave it to late in 2018 as Bitcoin simply got well ahead of itself.


----------



## moXJO

It was a stellar run. Now it needs to drop to levels that all the hodlers feel comfortable buying in at. Scarcity and FOMO is what launches these crazes. And you don't need a massive volume for price spikes.
There are too many $hitcoins out there as well.


----------



## So_Cynical

The top (red) down trend line is the only one really intact - perhaps a turn around in a month or so..
~


----------



## So_Cynical

greggles said:


> All the hype of six months ago seems to have evaporated. It was a glorious run to US$19,000, but it appears that reality is now beginning to set in.
> 
> I wonder how the guy who sold his home and all his possessions to invest in Bitcoin is feeling now: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/didi-taihuttu-sold-everything-for-bitcoin-fans-2017-12



Didi and family are doing great so it seems.
~


----------



## greggles

So_Cynical said:


> Didi and family are doing great so it seems.
> ~


----------



## noirua

Cryptocurrency
https://uk.advfn.com/cryptocurrency


----------



## noirua

*European countries join Blockchain Partnership*
10/04/2018
https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/news/european-countries-join-blockchain-partnership


----------



## noirua

*Winklevoss Twins Earn 5th Blockchain Patent*
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/C...oss-Twins-Earn-5th-Blockchain-Patent/77165681

The most notable working operations the Winklevoss Twins are involved with are cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, founded in 2015, and investment fund Winklevoss Capital Management, formed in 2012. Their pursuit of patents may hint at a new route to establishing cryptocurrencies as ETFs.


----------



## greggles

Mufti Muhammad Abu Bakar, a Sharia adviser and compliance officer at Blossom Finance in Jakarta has declared that Bitcoin is Halal.

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-declared-compliant-with-sharia-law-price-surges/

And up she goes! There's a lot of oil money that might start buying into cryptocurrencies now.


----------



## CanOz

Lol...is this serious??


----------



## greggles

CanOz said:


> Lol...is this serious??



Apparently so. I'm seeing it being reported from multiple sources. Confirmation from a more mainstream source would be good though.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/fint...oin-is-generally-permissible-under-sharia-law


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Lol...is this serious??




the new petrodollar ?


----------



## CanOz

What a load of wank, more rumor and innuendo from the crypto spruikers.....that recent low is what we refer to as a "poor" low in auction market theory. Value was not rejected, it was accepted there, price will return to unfinished business....


----------



## greggles

I'm getting mixed messages on the whole Bitcoin is halal story: https://www.finder.com.au/no-bitcoin-did-not-just-officially-become-halal

Maybe it is just a load of wank?


----------



## InsvestoBoy

CanOz said:


> What a load of wank, more rumor and innuendo from the crypto spruikers.....that recent low is what we refer to as a "poor" low in auction market theory. Value was not rejected, it was accepted there, price will return to unfinished business....




Hello CanOz,

Can you explain this a bit better? How do you know value was "accepted"? Why does this mean price will return there?


----------



## CanOz

As defined by FT71 

https://futurestrader71.com/glossary/


----------



## CanOz

Poor or weak low

It is easiest to illustrate what a weak or poor low by discussing what a strong or excess low is. When the market moves lower and finds that prices are just too low to be fair, the traders generally immediately drive price higher as buyers grab up as many contracts as possible at the perceived low prices. This generally leaves a buying tail on the chart and little in the way of volume on the profile. A weak or poor low is the opposite. This occurs when the market tests a low and can’t move away from it readily. A lot of volume trades a tick or so from the low print and buyers don’t seem to be interested in lifting prices higher. This is a weak or poor low and there is a generally tendency to revisit that low within that session or immediately after that session.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

CanOz said:


> Poor or weak low
> 
> It is easiest to illustrate what a weak or poor low by discussing what a strong or excess low is. When the market moves lower and finds that prices are just too low to be fair, the traders generally immediately drive price higher as buyers grab up as many contracts as possible at the perceived low prices. This generally leaves a buying tail on the chart and little in the way of volume on the profile. A weak or poor low is the opposite. This occurs when the market tests a low and can’t move away from it readily. A lot of volume trades a tick or so from the low print and buyers don’t seem to be interested in lifting prices higher. This is a weak or poor low and there is a generally tendency to revisit that low within that session or immediately after that session.




Thanks, that sounds much clearer.

Can we see the chart?


----------



## CanOz

BTC / USD daily with excess low and recent poor low....


----------



## So_Cynical

CanOz said:


> Poor or weak low
> 
> It is easiest to illustrate what a weak or poor low by discussing what a strong or excess low is. When the market moves lower and finds that prices are just too low to be fair, the traders generally immediately drive price higher as buyers grab up as many contracts as possible at the perceived low prices.




Problem is that there is no genuine way to determine what a low price is, its crypto and basically worthless - and yet its not...whats fair here????


----------



## CanOz

An auction is an auction....


----------



## kid hustlr

Auction is an auction. I agree.

Admittedly lows can come in many forms, I’ve seen lows print in a similar fashion to that chart. It’s not always a climactic move


----------



## Joules MM1

So_Cynical said:


> Problem is that there is no genuine way to determine what a low price is, its crypto and basically worthless - and yet its not...whats fair here????




youre using a different language to question what has already been made clear


if you think of all trades as balanced (they are) then all transactions as genuine (they are not, it's called intent) then you'll see Can's call is correct in so much as value and worth are derived by consensus at the time and place of supply v demand within the auction .....in simple terms

value is ethereal ......if you made a thousand cars that ran on steam and could  go top speed 19k/h
you would not sell any at auction in 2018 but in 1818 the auction would have had millionaires from the world over bidding so that means that all constructs of value and worth must be measurable at the time and place of auction, by consensus. even tho the worth and value are measurable those measures are defined by demand not as some 'genuine' universal truth

poppies are tangible and their value fungible, currencies no different

the difference between demand overrunning supply and demand withdrawing from taking supply is
not a single construct simply because the size of transactions in any single price level is rarely if ever repeated and the psychological value (has already) fluctuated when that same price is revisited, while the printed bars can look the same they do not print the same volume and to some extent volume is ethereal too simply because it only relates to the people who have done their business but may not necessarily relate to the people who are waiting to do larger/smaller business at a slightly different price level ......for me this basis for knowing trend and the intent within the chop zones of that trend

a trained/experienced/schooled eye can see this printing and does not require underlying data to have at least an idea of price acceptance or rejection .....of course we're into the vocabulary of the definition of what makes acceptance and rejection

the most that a trader can get from any presentation of printed supply and demand via volume (where the volume printed, sometimes; when the volume printed) is to lower the risk but you cannot use the word genuine to call for absolute risk negation...this is also true of live presentation when the DOM will present fake bids ...fake prints are only fake in so much as trades are intended to draw in weak traders on the opposite side of the trade but these cannot determine trend

.....in the end the largest mass or group that creates trend will dominate price length and trend or largest direction .....

a genuine low is not knowable in foresight, it is merely an assessable risk level of assumption, the bars print this and a traders job is to interpret and give it context based on the bars employed
the trader needs to risk assess..afterall a puke into 30second bars does not mean you have a rotation in 30 minute bars or a trend rotation in a daily bar

how a low forms can tell you a lot about the likely hood of that price level being revisited


----------



## Joules MM1

currencies no different

before some muppet bangs on my head about that, we're discussing lows and how they print, what makes value ......so within the btc value ethos value is and always shall be fungible, if not funny

so.....dont @ me, k!


----------



## CanOz

Two charts - First chart is a classic TPO chart with the actual poor low marked. Composite profile on bottom since inception of the CBOE BTC contract "XBT", Note that i didn't even realise i had historical volume data for this, i took the reference off of a normal candle chart before i loaded this from my NT8 platform just now.


----------



## CanOz

I'd propose that the market had actually started to sell off in orderly fashion until the catalyst at 23:00 on the 12/04/2018. That volume spike is thin at best and is likely to fill in....


----------



## noirua

I'm building my position in Bitcoin very gradually. It does not matter at present, to me, whether bitcoin goes to $2,000 or $50,000.


----------



## Wysiwyg

CanOz can you define Poor Low Poor High, Weak Low Weak High please?


----------



## CanOz

I just did, back one page....


----------



## So_Cynical

CanOz said:


> An auction is an auction....




Ok thanks...its an auction.


----------



## noirua

The only alternative and a bit expensive:
https://cryptocurrencyfacts.com/understanding-the-bitcoin-investment-trust-gbtc/


----------



## Wysiwyg

CanOz said:


> I just did, back one page....



Places where value is rejected or accepted. I'll delve a little further on line. Point of control area is another interest.


----------



## CanOz

XBT tags the NPOC (Naken Point of Control) to the tick...7940 is the key reference now.


----------



## noirua

*Billionaire banking heir Matthew Mellon dies in rehab, aged 54*
*Billionaire banking heir and cryptocurrency investor Matthew Mellon  has died aged 54, reportedly at a rehabilitation center in Cancun, Mexico. *
*https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/17/billionaire-banking-heir-matthew-mellon-dies-rehab-aged-54/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget*


----------



## cclarkedi

Bitcoin price is volatile, that's true. It goes up and down all the time. I am following the news and believe that the price will grow in future. Popularity of bitcoin increases which means that the demand for it will increase as well.


----------



## greggles

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general seem to have fallen off the radar of the mainstream media recently. 

However, the bitcoin bulls have been in charge over the last month and BTC looks to be heading back towards US$10,000.


----------



## greggles

greggles said:


> However, the bitcoin bulls have been in charge over the last month and BTC looks to be heading back towards US$10,000.




Bitcoin's fortunes continue to change rapidly. In a little more than a month, the Bitcoin price has fallen from around US$9,800 to US$6700. The price collapsed on fairly heavy volume a couple of days ago from US$7,650 to around US$6,700.


----------



## Kryzz

greggles said:


> Bitcoin's fortunes continue to change rapidly. In a little more than a month, the Bitcoin price has fallen from around US$9,800 to US$6700. The price collapsed on fairly heavy volume a couple of days ago from US$7,650 to around US$6,700.
> 
> View attachment 87770






Be interesting to see what happens from here around the $5k-$6k. Seems to have been well supported to date.


----------



## greggles

Kryzz said:


> Be interesting to see what happens from here around the $5k-$6k. Seems to have been well supported to date.




It seems to have found some support around US$6,700. For now at least.


----------



## greggles

Currently at US$6442 and at 2018 lows. We're now back at November 2017 prices. A break down through US$6,000 would be troubling.


----------



## DB008

Great insight into Bitcoin.
People should get the full story of r/bitcoin (Reddit sub) because it is probably one of the strangest of all reddit subs.

r/bitcoin (Reddit sub), the main sub for the bitcoin community is held and run by a person who goes by the pseudonym u/theymos.

Theymos (u/theymos) not only controls r/bitcoin (Reddit sub), but also bitcoin.org and bitcointalk.com.

These are top three communication channels for the bitcoin community, all controlled by just one person.

For most of bitcoin's history, this did not create a problem (at least not an obvious one anyway) until around mid-2015. This happened to be around the time a new player appeared on the scene, a for-profit company called Blockstream.

Blockstream was made up of/hired many (but not all) of the main bitcoin developers. (To be clear, Blockstream was founded before mid-2015 but did not become publicly active until then). A lot of people, including myself, tried to point out there were some very serious potential conflicts of interest that could arise when one single company controls most of the main developers for the biggest decentralised and distributed cryptocurrency. There were a lot of unknowns but people seemed to give them the benefit of the doubt because they were apparently about to release some new software called “side-chains” that could offer some benefits to the network.

Not long after Blockstream came on the scene the issue of bitcoin's scalability once again came to the forefront of the community. This issue was discussed within the community a number of times since bitcoins inception. Bitcoin, as dictated in the code, cannot handle any more than around 3 transactions per second at the moment. To put that in perspective PayPal handles around 15 transactions per second on average and VISA handles something like 2000 transactions per second. The discussion in the community has been around how best to allow bitcoin to scale to allow a higher number of transactions in a given amount of time. I suggest that if anyone is interested in learning more about this problem from a technical angle, they go to r/btc and do a search. It's a complex issue but for many who have followed bitcoin for many years, the possible solutions seem relatively obvious. Currently, the limit is put in place in just a few lines of code. This was not originally present when bitcoin was first released. It was in fact put in place afterwards as a measure to stop a bloating attack on the network. Because all bitcoin transactions have to be stored forever on the bitcoin network, someone could theoretically simply transmit a large number of transactions which would have to be stored by the entire network forever.

When bitcoin was released, transactions were actually for free as the only people running the network were enthusiasts. In fact, a single bitcoin did not even have any specific value so it would be impossible set a fee value. This meant that a malicious person could make the size of the bitcoin ledger grow very rapidly without much/any cost which would stop people from wanting to join the network due to the resource requirements needed to store it, which at the time would have been for very little gain.

Towards the end of the summer last year, this bitcoin scaling debate surfaced again as it was becoming clear that the transaction limit for bitcoin was semi-regularly being reached and that it would not be long until it would be regularly hit and the network would become congested. This was a very serious issue for a currency. Bitcoin had made progress over the years to the point of retailers starting to offer it as a payment option. Bitcoin companies like Microsoft, PayPal, Steam and many more had begun to adopt it. If the transaction limit would be constantly maxed out, the network would become unreliable and slow for users. Users and businesses would not be able to make a reliable estimate when their transaction would be confirmed by the network.

Users, developers and businesses (which at the time was pretty much the only real bitcoin subreddit) started to discuss how we should solve the problem r/bitcoin. There was significant support from the users and businesses behind a simple solution put forward by the developer Gavin Andresen. Gavin was the lead developer after Satoshi Nakamoto left bitcoin and he left it in his hands. Gavin initially proposed a very simple solution of increasing the limit which was to change the few lines of code to increase the maximum number of transactions that are allowed. For most of bitcoin's history, the transaction limit had been set far higher than the number of transactions that could potentially happen on the network. The concept of increasing the limit one time was based on the fact that history had proven that no issue had been caused by this in the past.

A certain group of bitcoin developers decided that increasing the limit by this amount was too much and that it was dangerous. They said that the increased use of resources that the network would use would create centralisation pressures which could destroy the network. The theory was that a miner of the network with more resources could publish many more transactions than a competing small miner could handle and therefore the network would tend towards few large miners rather than many small miners. The group of developers who supported this theory were all developers who worked for the company Blockstream. The argument from people in support of increasing the transaction capacity by this amount was that there is always inherent centralisation pressure with bitcoin mining. For example, miners who can access the cheapest electricity will tend to succeed and that bigger miners will be able to find this cheaper electricity easier. Miners who have access to the most efficient computer chips will tend to succeed and that larger miners are more likely to be able to afford the development of them. The argument from Gavin, and others who supported increasing the transaction capacity by this method, as follows; there are economies of scale in mining and these economies of scale have far bigger centralisation pressures than increased resource cost for a larger number of transactions (up to the new limit proposed). For example, at the time the total size of the blockchain was around 50GB. Even for the cost of a 500GB SSD is only $150 and would last a number of years. This is in comparison to the $100,000's in revenue per day a miner would be making.

Various developers put forth various other proposals, including Gavin Andresen who put forth a more conservative increase that would then continue to increase over time in line with technological improvements. Some of the employees of Blockstream also put forth some proposals, but all were so conservative, it would take bitcoin many decades before it could reach a scale of VISA. Even though there was significant support from the community behind Gavin's simple proposal of increasing the limit it was becoming clear certain members of the bitcoin community who were part of Blockstream were starting to become increasingly vitriolic and divisive. Gavin then teamed up with one of the other main bitcoin developers Mike Hearn and released a coded (i.e. working) version of the bitcoin software that would only activate if it was supported by a significant majority of the network. What happened next was where things really started to get weird.

After this free and open source software was released, Theymos, the person who controls all the main communication channels for the bitcoin community implemented a new moderation policy that disallowed any discussion of this new software. Specifically, if people were to discuss this software, their comments would be deleted and ultimately they would be banned temporarily or permanently.

This caused chaos within the community as there was very clear support for this software at the time and it seemed our best hope for finally solving the problem and moving on. Instead, a censorship campaign was started. At first it 'all' they were doing was banning and removing discussions but after a while, it turned into actively manipulating the discussion. For example, if a thread was created where there was positive sentiment for increasing the transaction capacity or being negative about the moderation policies or negative about the actions of certain bitcoin developers, the mods of r/bitcoin would selectively change the sorting order of threads to 'controversial' so that the most support opinions would be sorted to the bottom of the thread and the most vitriolic would be sorted to the top of the thread. This was initially very transparent as it was possible to see that the most downvoted comments were at the top and some of the most upvoted were at the bottom. So they then implemented hiding the voting scores next to the user's name. This made impossible to work out the sentiment of the community and when combined with selectively setting the sorting order to controversial it was possible to control what information users were seeing. Also, due to the very very large number of removed comments and users, it was becoming obvious the scale of censorship going on. To hide this they implemented code in their CSS for the sub that completely hid comments that they had removed so that the censorship itself was hidden. Anyone in support of scaling bitcoin were removed from the main communication channels. Theymos even proudly announced that he didn't care if he had to remove 90% of the users. He also later acknowledged that he knew he had the ability to block support of this software using the control he had over the communication channels.

While this was all going on, Blockstream and its employees started lobbying the community by paying for conferences about scaling bitcoin, but with the very very strange rule that no decisions could be made and no complete solutions could be proposed.

These conferences were likely strategically (and successfully) created to stunt support for the scaling software Gavin and Mike had released by forcing the community to take a "let's wait and see what comes from the conferences" kind of approach. Since no final solutions were allowed at these conferences, they only served to hinder and splinter the communities efforts to find a solution. As the software Gavin and Mike released called BitcoinXT gained support it started to be attacked. Users of the software were attacked by DDOS. Employees of Blockstream were recommending attacks against the software, such as faking support for it, to only then drop support at the last moment to put the network in disarray. Blockstream employees were also publicly talking about suing Gavin and Mike from various different angles simply for releasing this open source software that no one was forced to run. In the end, Mike Hearn decided to leave due to the way many members of the bitcoin community had treated him. This was due to the massive disinformation campaign against him on r/bitcoin. One of the many tactics that are used against anyone who does not support Blockstream and the bitcoin developers who work for them is that you will be targeted in a smear campaign. This has happened to a number of individuals and companies who showed support for scaling bitcoin. Theymos has threatened companies that he will ban any discussion of them on the communication channels he controls (i.e. all the main ones) for simply running software that he disagrees with (i.e. any software that scales bitcoin).

As time passed, more and more proposals were offered, all against the backdrop of ever-increasing censorship in the main bitcoin communication channels. It finally came down the smallest and most conservative solution. This solution was much smaller than even the employees of Blockstream had proposed months earlier. As usual there was enormous attacks from all sides and the most vocal opponents were the employees of Blockstream. These attacks still are ongoing today. As this software started to gain support, Blockstream organised more meetings, especially with the biggest bitcoin miners and made a pact with them. They promised that they would release code that would offer an on-chain scaling solution hardfork within about 4 months, but if the miners wanted this they would have to commit to running their software and only their software. The miners agreed and the ended up not running the most conservative proposal possible. This was in February last year. There is no hardfork proposal in sight from the people who agreed to this pact and bitcoin is still stuck with the exact same transaction limit it has had since the limit was put in place about 6 years ago. Gavin has also been publicly smeared by the developers at Blockstream and a plot was made against him to have him removed from the development team. Gavin has now been, for all intents and purposes, expelled from bitcoin development. This has meant that all control of bitcoin development is in the hands of the developers working at Blockstream.

There is a new proposal that offers a market-based approach to scaling bitcoin. This essentially lets the market decide. Of course, as usual, there has been attacks against it, and verbal attacks from the employees of Blockstream. This has the biggest chance of gaining wide support and solving the problem for good.

To give you an idea of Blockstream; It has hired most of the main and active bitcoin developers and is now synonymous with the "Core" bitcoin development team. They AFAIK no products at all. They have received around $75m in funding. Every single thing they do is supported by u/theymos.

They have started implementing an entirely new economic system for bitcoin against the will of its users and have blocked any and all attempts to scaling the network in line with the original vision.

Although this comment is ridiculously long, it really only covers the tip of the iceberg. You could write a book on the last two years of bitcoin. The things that have been going on have been mind-blowing. One last thing that I think is worth talking about is u/bashco's claim of vote manipulation.

The users that the video talks about have very very large numbers of downvotes mostly due to them having a very very high chance of being astroturfers. Around about the same time last year when Blockstream came active on the scene, every single bitcoin troll disappeared, and I mean literally every single one. In the years before that, there were a large number of active anti-bitcoin trolls. They even have an active sub r/buttcoin. Up until last year, you could go down to the bottom of pretty much any thread in r/bitcoin and see many of the usual trolls who were heavily downvoted for saying something along the lines of "bitcoin is ****", "You guys and your tulips" etc. But suddenly last year they all disappeared. Instead, a new type of bitcoin user appeared. Someone who said they were fully in support of bitcoin but they just so happened to support every single thing Blockstream and its employees said and did. They had the exact same tone as the trolls who had disappeared. Their way of talking to people was aggressive, they'd call people names, they had a relatively poor understanding of how bitcoin fundamentally worked. They were extremely argumentative. These users are the majority of the list of that video. When the 10's of thousands of users were censored and expelled from r/bitcoin they ended up congregating in r/btc. The strange thing was that the users listed in that video also moved over to r/btc and spend all day every day posting troll-like comments and misinformation. Naturally, they get heavily downvoted by the real users in r/btc. They spend their time constantly causing as much drama as possible. At every opportunity, they scream about "censorship" in r/btc while they are happy about the censorship in r/bitcoin. These people are astroturfers. What someone somewhere worked out, is that all you have to do to take down a community is say that you are on their side. It is an astoundingly effective form of psychological attack.


----------



## Skate

DB008 said:


> Great insight into Bitcoin.
> People should get the full story of r/bitcoin (Reddit sub) because it is probably one of the strangest of all reddit subs.
> 
> r/bitcoin (Reddit sub), the main sub for the bitcoin community is held and run by a person who goes by the pseudonym u/theymos.
> 
> Theymos (u/theymos) not only controls r/bitcoin (Reddit sub), but also bitcoin.org and bitcointalk.com.
> 
> These are top three communication channels for the bitcoin community, all controlled by just one person.
> 
> For most of bitcoin's history, this did not create a problem (at least not an obvious one anyway) until around mid-2015. This happened to be around the time a new player appeared on the scene, a for-profit company called Blockstream.
> 
> Blockstream was made up of/hired many (but not all) of the main bitcoin developers. (To be clear, Blockstream was founded before mid-2015 but did not become publicly active until then). A lot of people, including myself, tried to point out there were some very serious potential conflicts of interest that could arise when one single company controls most of the main developers for the biggest decentralised and distributed cryptocurrency. There were a lot of unknowns but people seemed to give them the benefit of the doubt because they were apparently about to release some new software called “side-chains” that could offer some benefits to the network.
> 
> Not long after Blockstream came on the scene the issue of bitcoin's scalability once again came to the forefront of the community. This issue was discussed within the community a number of times since bitcoins inception. Bitcoin, as dictated in the code, cannot handle any more than around 3 transactions per second at the moment. To put that in perspective PayPal handles around 15 transactions per second on average and VISA handles something like 2000 transactions per second. The discussion in the community has been around how best to allow bitcoin to scale to allow a higher number of transactions in a given amount of time. I suggest that if anyone is interested in learning more about this problem from a technical angle, they go to r/btc and do a search. It's a complex issue but for many who have followed bitcoin for many years, the possible solutions seem relatively obvious. Currently, the limit is put in place in just a few lines of code. This was not originally present when bitcoin was first released. It was in fact put in place afterwards as a measure to stop a bloating attack on the network. Because all bitcoin transactions have to be stored forever on the bitcoin network, someone could theoretically simply transmit a large number of transactions which would have to be stored by the entire network forever.
> 
> When bitcoin was released, transactions were actually for free as the only people running the network were enthusiasts. In fact, a single bitcoin did not even have any specific value so it would be impossible set a fee value. This meant that a malicious person could make the size of the bitcoin ledger grow very rapidly without much/any cost which would stop people from wanting to join the network due to the resource requirements needed to store it, which at the time would have been for very little gain.
> 
> Towards the end of the summer last year, this bitcoin scaling debate surfaced again as it was becoming clear that the transaction limit for bitcoin was semi-regularly being reached and that it would not be long until it would be regularly hit and the network would become congested. This was a very serious issue for a currency. Bitcoin had made progress over the years to the point of retailers starting to offer it as a payment option. Bitcoin companies like Microsoft, PayPal, Steam and many more had begun to adopt it. If the transaction limit would be constantly maxed out, the network would become unreliable and slow for users. Users and businesses would not be able to make a reliable estimate when their transaction would be confirmed by the network.
> 
> Users, developers and businesses (which at the time was pretty much the only real bitcoin subreddit) started to discuss how we should solve the problem r/bitcoin. There was significant support from the users and businesses behind a simple solution put forward by the developer Gavin Andresen. Gavin was the lead developer after Satoshi Nakamoto left bitcoin and he left it in his hands. Gavin initially proposed a very simple solution of increasing the limit which was to change the few lines of code to increase the maximum number of transactions that are allowed. For most of bitcoin's history, the transaction limit had been set far higher than the number of transactions that could potentially happen on the network. The concept of increasing the limit one time was based on the fact that history had proven that no issue had been caused by this in the past.
> 
> A certain group of bitcoin developers decided that increasing the limit by this amount was too much and that it was dangerous. They said that the increased use of resources that the network would use would create centralisation pressures which could destroy the network. The theory was that a miner of the network with more resources could publish many more transactions than a competing small miner could handle and therefore the network would tend towards few large miners rather than many small miners. The group of developers who supported this theory were all developers who worked for the company Blockstream. The argument from people in support of increasing the transaction capacity by this amount was that there is always inherent centralisation pressure with bitcoin mining. For example, miners who can access the cheapest electricity will tend to succeed and that bigger miners will be able to find this cheaper electricity easier. Miners who have access to the most efficient computer chips will tend to succeed and that larger miners are more likely to be able to afford the development of them. The argument from Gavin, and others who supported increasing the transaction capacity by this method, as follows; there are economies of scale in mining and these economies of scale have far bigger centralisation pressures than increased resource cost for a larger number of transactions (up to the new limit proposed). For example, at the time the total size of the blockchain was around 50GB. Even for the cost of a 500GB SSD is only $150 and would last a number of years. This is in comparison to the $100,000's in revenue per day a miner would be making.
> 
> Various developers put forth various other proposals, including Gavin Andresen who put forth a more conservative increase that would then continue to increase over time in line with technological improvements. Some of the employees of Blockstream also put forth some proposals, but all were so conservative, it would take bitcoin many decades before it could reach a scale of VISA. Even though there was significant support from the community behind Gavin's simple proposal of increasing the limit it was becoming clear certain members of the bitcoin community who were part of Blockstream were starting to become increasingly vitriolic and divisive. Gavin then teamed up with one of the other main bitcoin developers Mike Hearn and released a coded (i.e. working) version of the bitcoin software that would only activate if it was supported by a significant majority of the network. What happened next was where things really started to get weird.
> 
> After this free and open source software was released, Theymos, the person who controls all the main communication channels for the bitcoin community implemented a new moderation policy that disallowed any discussion of this new software. Specifically, if people were to discuss this software, their comments would be deleted and ultimately they would be banned temporarily or permanently.
> 
> This caused chaos within the community as there was very clear support for this software at the time and it seemed our best hope for finally solving the problem and moving on. Instead, a censorship campaign was started. At first it 'all' they were doing was banning and removing discussions but after a while, it turned into actively manipulating the discussion. For example, if a thread was created where there was positive sentiment for increasing the transaction capacity or being negative about the moderation policies or negative about the actions of certain bitcoin developers, the mods of r/bitcoin would selectively change the sorting order of threads to 'controversial' so that the most support opinions would be sorted to the bottom of the thread and the most vitriolic would be sorted to the top of the thread. This was initially very transparent as it was possible to see that the most downvoted comments were at the top and some of the most upvoted were at the bottom. So they then implemented hiding the voting scores next to the user's name. This made impossible to work out the sentiment of the community and when combined with selectively setting the sorting order to controversial it was possible to control what information users were seeing. Also, due to the very very large number of removed comments and users, it was becoming obvious the scale of censorship going on. To hide this they implemented code in their CSS for the sub that completely hid comments that they had removed so that the censorship itself was hidden. Anyone in support of scaling bitcoin were removed from the main communication channels. Theymos even proudly announced that he didn't care if he had to remove 90% of the users. He also later acknowledged that he knew he had the ability to block support of this software using the control he had over the communication channels.
> 
> While this was all going on, Blockstream and its employees started lobbying the community by paying for conferences about scaling bitcoin, but with the very very strange rule that no decisions could be made and no complete solutions could be proposed.
> 
> These conferences were likely strategically (and successfully) created to stunt support for the scaling software Gavin and Mike had released by forcing the community to take a "let's wait and see what comes from the conferences" kind of approach. Since no final solutions were allowed at these conferences, they only served to hinder and splinter the communities efforts to find a solution. As the software Gavin and Mike released called BitcoinXT gained support it started to be attacked. Users of the software were attacked by DDOS. Employees of Blockstream were recommending attacks against the software, such as faking support for it, to only then drop support at the last moment to put the network in disarray. Blockstream employees were also publicly talking about suing Gavin and Mike from various different angles simply for releasing this open source software that no one was forced to run. In the end, Mike Hearn decided to leave due to the way many members of the bitcoin community had treated him. This was due to the massive disinformation campaign against him on r/bitcoin. One of the many tactics that are used against anyone who does not support Blockstream and the bitcoin developers who work for them is that you will be targeted in a smear campaign. This has happened to a number of individuals and companies who showed support for scaling bitcoin. Theymos has threatened companies that he will ban any discussion of them on the communication channels he controls (i.e. all the main ones) for simply running software that he disagrees with (i.e. any software that scales bitcoin).
> 
> As time passed, more and more proposals were offered, all against the backdrop of ever-increasing censorship in the main bitcoin communication channels. It finally came down the smallest and most conservative solution. This solution was much smaller than even the employees of Blockstream had proposed months earlier. As usual there was enormous attacks from all sides and the most vocal opponents were the employees of Blockstream. These attacks still are ongoing today. As this software started to gain support, Blockstream organised more meetings, especially with the biggest bitcoin miners and made a pact with them. They promised that they would release code that would offer an on-chain scaling solution hardfork within about 4 months, but if the miners wanted this they would have to commit to running their software and only their software. The miners agreed and the ended up not running the most conservative proposal possible. This was in February last year. There is no hardfork proposal in sight from the people who agreed to this pact and bitcoin is still stuck with the exact same transaction limit it has had since the limit was put in place about 6 years ago. Gavin has also been publicly smeared by the developers at Blockstream and a plot was made against him to have him removed from the development team. Gavin has now been, for all intents and purposes, expelled from bitcoin development. This has meant that all control of bitcoin development is in the hands of the developers working at Blockstream.
> 
> There is a new proposal that offers a market-based approach to scaling bitcoin. This essentially lets the market decide. Of course, as usual, there has been attacks against it, and verbal attacks from the employees of Blockstream. This has the biggest chance of gaining wide support and solving the problem for good.
> 
> To give you an idea of Blockstream; It has hired most of the main and active bitcoin developers and is now synonymous with the "Core" bitcoin development team. They AFAIK no products at all. They have received around $75m in funding. Every single thing they do is supported by u/theymos.
> 
> They have started implementing an entirely new economic system for bitcoin against the will of its users and have blocked any and all attempts to scaling the network in line with the original vision.
> 
> Although this comment is ridiculously long, it really only covers the tip of the iceberg. You could write a book on the last two years of bitcoin. The things that have been going on have been mind-blowing. One last thing that I think is worth talking about is u/bashco's claim of vote manipulation.
> 
> The users that the video talks about have very very large numbers of downvotes mostly due to them having a very very high chance of being astroturfers. Around about the same time last year when Blockstream came active on the scene, every single bitcoin troll disappeared, and I mean literally every single one. In the years before that, there were a large number of active anti-bitcoin trolls. They even have an active sub r/buttcoin. Up until last year, you could go down to the bottom of pretty much any thread in r/bitcoin and see many of the usual trolls who were heavily downvoted for saying something along the lines of "bitcoin is ****", "You guys and your tulips" etc. But suddenly last year they all disappeared. Instead, a new type of bitcoin user appeared. Someone who said they were fully in support of bitcoin but they just so happened to support every single thing Blockstream and its employees said and did. They had the exact same tone as the trolls who had disappeared. Their way of talking to people was aggressive, they'd call people names, they had a relatively poor understanding of how bitcoin fundamentally worked. They were extremely argumentative. These users are the majority of the list of that video. When the 10's of thousands of users were censored and expelled from r/bitcoin they ended up congregating in r/btc. The strange thing was that the users listed in that video also moved over to r/btc and spend all day every day posting troll-like comments and misinformation. Naturally, they get heavily downvoted by the real users in r/btc. They spend their time constantly causing as much drama as possible. At every opportunity, they scream about "censorship" in r/btc while they are happy about the censorship in r/bitcoin. These people are astroturfers. What someone somewhere worked out, is that all you have to do to take down a community is say that you are on their side. It is an astoundingly effective form of psychological attack.




I usually get exhausted reading long posts, but this post was informative & so well written.


----------



## OmegaTrader

DB008 said:


> Great insight into Bitcoin.
> People should get the full story of r/bitcoin (Reddit sub) because it is probably one of the strangest of all reddit subs.
> 
> r/bitcoin (Reddit sub), the main sub for the bitcoin community is held and run by a person who goes by the pseudonym u/theymos.
> 
> Theymos (u/theymos) not only controls r/bitcoin (Reddit sub), but also bitcoin.org and bitcointalk.com.
> 
> These are top three communication channels for the bitcoin community, all controlled by just one person.
> 
> For most of bitcoin's history, this did not create a problem (at least not an obvious one anyway) until around mid-2015. This happened to be around the time a new player appeared on the scene, a for-profit company called Blockstream.
> 
> Blockstream was made up of/hired many (but not all) of the main bitcoin developers. (To be clear, Blockstream was founded before mid-2015 but did not become publicly active until then). A lot of people, including myself, tried to point out there were some very serious potential conflicts of interest that could arise when one single company controls most of the main developers for the biggest decentralised and distributed cryptocurrency. There were a lot of unknowns but people seemed to give them the benefit of the doubt because they were apparently about to release some new software called “side-chains” that could offer some benefits to the network.
> 
> Not long after Blockstream came on the scene the issue of bitcoin's scalability once again came to the forefront of the community. This issue was discussed within the community a number of times since bitcoins inception. Bitcoin, as dictated in the code, cannot handle any more than around 3 transactions per second at the moment. To put that in perspective PayPal handles around 15 transactions per second on average and VISA handles something like 2000 transactions per second. The discussion in the community has been around how best to allow bitcoin to scale to allow a higher number of transactions in a given amount of time. I suggest that if anyone is interested in learning more about this problem from a technical angle, they go to r/btc and do a search. It's a complex issue but for many who have followed bitcoin for many years, the possible solutions seem relatively obvious. Currently, the limit is put in place in just a few lines of code. This was not originally present when bitcoin was first released. It was in fact put in place afterwards as a measure to stop a bloating attack on the network. Because all bitcoin transactions have to be stored forever on the bitcoin network, someone could theoretically simply transmit a large number of transactions which would have to be stored by the entire network forever.
> 
> When bitcoin was released, transactions were actually for free as the only people running the network were enthusiasts. In fact, a single bitcoin did not even have any specific value so it would be impossible set a fee value. This meant that a malicious person could make the size of the bitcoin ledger grow very rapidly without much/any cost which would stop people from wanting to join the network due to the resource requirements needed to store it, which at the time would have been for very little gain.
> 
> Towards the end of the summer last year, this bitcoin scaling debate surfaced again as it was becoming clear that the transaction limit for bitcoin was semi-regularly being reached and that it would not be long until it would be regularly hit and the network would become congested. This was a very serious issue for a currency. Bitcoin had made progress over the years to the point of retailers starting to offer it as a payment option. Bitcoin companies like Microsoft, PayPal, Steam and many more had begun to adopt it. If the transaction limit would be constantly maxed out, the network would become unreliable and slow for users. Users and businesses would not be able to make a reliable estimate when their transaction would be confirmed by the network.
> 
> Users, developers and businesses (which at the time was pretty much the only real bitcoin subreddit) started to discuss how we should solve the problem r/bitcoin. There was significant support from the users and businesses behind a simple solution put forward by the developer Gavin Andresen. Gavin was the lead developer after Satoshi Nakamoto left bitcoin and he left it in his hands. Gavin initially proposed a very simple solution of increasing the limit which was to change the few lines of code to increase the maximum number of transactions that are allowed. For most of bitcoin's history, the transaction limit had been set far higher than the number of transactions that could potentially happen on the network. The concept of increasing the limit one time was based on the fact that history had proven that no issue had been caused by this in the past.
> 
> A certain group of bitcoin developers decided that increasing the limit by this amount was too much and that it was dangerous. They said that the increased use of resources that the network would use would create centralisation pressures which could destroy the network. The theory was that a miner of the network with more resources could publish many more transactions than a competing small miner could handle and therefore the network would tend towards few large miners rather than many small miners. The group of developers who supported this theory were all developers who worked for the company Blockstream. The argument from people in support of increasing the transaction capacity by this amount was that there is always inherent centralisation pressure with bitcoin mining. For example, miners who can access the cheapest electricity will tend to succeed and that bigger miners will be able to find this cheaper electricity easier. Miners who have access to the most efficient computer chips will tend to succeed and that larger miners are more likely to be able to afford the development of them. The argument from Gavin, and others who supported increasing the transaction capacity by this method, as follows; there are economies of scale in mining and these economies of scale have far bigger centralisation pressures than increased resource cost for a larger number of transactions (up to the new limit proposed). For example, at the time the total size of the blockchain was around 50GB. Even for the cost of a 500GB SSD is only $150 and would last a number of years. This is in comparison to the $100,000's in revenue per day a miner would be making.
> 
> Various developers put forth various other proposals, including Gavin Andresen who put forth a more conservative increase that would then continue to increase over time in line with technological improvements. Some of the employees of Blockstream also put forth some proposals, but all were so conservative, it would take bitcoin many decades before it could reach a scale of VISA. Even though there was significant support from the community behind Gavin's simple proposal of increasing the limit it was becoming clear certain members of the bitcoin community who were part of Blockstream were starting to become increasingly vitriolic and divisive. Gavin then teamed up with one of the other main bitcoin developers Mike Hearn and released a coded (i.e. working) version of the bitcoin software that would only activate if it was supported by a significant majority of the network. What happened next was where things really started to get weird.
> 
> After this free and open source software was released, Theymos, the person who controls all the main communication channels for the bitcoin community implemented a new moderation policy that disallowed any discussion of this new software. Specifically, if people were to discuss this software, their comments would be deleted and ultimately they would be banned temporarily or permanently.
> 
> This caused chaos within the community as there was very clear support for this software at the time and it seemed our best hope for finally solving the problem and moving on. Instead, a censorship campaign was started. At first it 'all' they were doing was banning and removing discussions but after a while, it turned into actively manipulating the discussion. For example, if a thread was created where there was positive sentiment for increasing the transaction capacity or being negative about the moderation policies or negative about the actions of certain bitcoin developers, the mods of r/bitcoin would selectively change the sorting order of threads to 'controversial' so that the most support opinions would be sorted to the bottom of the thread and the most vitriolic would be sorted to the top of the thread. This was initially very transparent as it was possible to see that the most downvoted comments were at the top and some of the most upvoted were at the bottom. So they then implemented hiding the voting scores next to the user's name. This made impossible to work out the sentiment of the community and when combined with selectively setting the sorting order to controversial it was possible to control what information users were seeing. Also, due to the very very large number of removed comments and users, it was becoming obvious the scale of censorship going on. To hide this they implemented code in their CSS for the sub that completely hid comments that they had removed so that the censorship itself was hidden. Anyone in support of scaling bitcoin were removed from the main communication channels. Theymos even proudly announced that he didn't care if he had to remove 90% of the users. He also later acknowledged that he knew he had the ability to block support of this software using the control he had over the communication channels.
> 
> While this was all going on, Blockstream and its employees started lobbying the community by paying for conferences about scaling bitcoin, but with the very very strange rule that no decisions could be made and no complete solutions could be proposed.
> 
> These conferences were likely strategically (and successfully) created to stunt support for the scaling software Gavin and Mike had released by forcing the community to take a "let's wait and see what comes from the conferences" kind of approach. Since no final solutions were allowed at these conferences, they only served to hinder and splinter the communities efforts to find a solution. As the software Gavin and Mike released called BitcoinXT gained support it started to be attacked. Users of the software were attacked by DDOS. Employees of Blockstream were recommending attacks against the software, such as faking support for it, to only then drop support at the last moment to put the network in disarray. Blockstream employees were also publicly talking about suing Gavin and Mike from various different angles simply for releasing this open source software that no one was forced to run. In the end, Mike Hearn decided to leave due to the way many members of the bitcoin community had treated him. This was due to the massive disinformation campaign against him on r/bitcoin. One of the many tactics that are used against anyone who does not support Blockstream and the bitcoin developers who work for them is that you will be targeted in a smear campaign. This has happened to a number of individuals and companies who showed support for scaling bitcoin. Theymos has threatened companies that he will ban any discussion of them on the communication channels he controls (i.e. all the main ones) for simply running software that he disagrees with (i.e. any software that scales bitcoin).
> 
> As time passed, more and more proposals were offered, all against the backdrop of ever-increasing censorship in the main bitcoin communication channels. It finally came down the smallest and most conservative solution. This solution was much smaller than even the employees of Blockstream had proposed months earlier. As usual there was enormous attacks from all sides and the most vocal opponents were the employees of Blockstream. These attacks still are ongoing today. As this software started to gain support, Blockstream organised more meetings, especially with the biggest bitcoin miners and made a pact with them. They promised that they would release code that would offer an on-chain scaling solution hardfork within about 4 months, but if the miners wanted this they would have to commit to running their software and only their software. The miners agreed and the ended up not running the most conservative proposal possible. This was in February last year. There is no hardfork proposal in sight from the people who agreed to this pact and bitcoin is still stuck with the exact same transaction limit it has had since the limit was put in place about 6 years ago. Gavin has also been publicly smeared by the developers at Blockstream and a plot was made against him to have him removed from the development team. Gavin has now been, for all intents and purposes, expelled from bitcoin development. This has meant that all control of bitcoin development is in the hands of the developers working at Blockstream.
> 
> There is a new proposal that offers a market-based approach to scaling bitcoin. This essentially lets the market decide. Of course, as usual, there has been attacks against it, and verbal attacks from the employees of Blockstream. This has the biggest chance of gaining wide support and solving the problem for good.
> 
> To give you an idea of Blockstream; It has hired most of the main and active bitcoin developers and is now synonymous with the "Core" bitcoin development team. They AFAIK no products at all. They have received around $75m in funding. Every single thing they do is supported by u/theymos.
> 
> They have started implementing an entirely new economic system for bitcoin against the will of its users and have blocked any and all attempts to scaling the network in line with the original vision.
> 
> Although this comment is ridiculously long, it really only covers the tip of the iceberg. You could write a book on the last two years of bitcoin. The things that have been going on have been mind-blowing. One last thing that I think is worth talking about is u/bashco's claim of vote manipulation.
> 
> The users that the video talks about have very very large numbers of downvotes mostly due to them having a very very high chance of being astroturfers. Around about the same time last year when Blockstream came active on the scene, every single bitcoin troll disappeared, and I mean literally every single one. In the years before that, there were a large number of active anti-bitcoin trolls. They even have an active sub r/buttcoin. Up until last year, you could go down to the bottom of pretty much any thread in r/bitcoin and see many of the usual trolls who were heavily downvoted for saying something along the lines of "bitcoin is ****", "You guys and your tulips" etc. But suddenly last year they all disappeared. Instead, a new type of bitcoin user appeared. Someone who said they were fully in support of bitcoin but they just so happened to support every single thing Blockstream and its employees said and did. They had the exact same tone as the trolls who had disappeared. Their way of talking to people was aggressive, they'd call people names, they had a relatively poor understanding of how bitcoin fundamentally worked. They were extremely argumentative. These users are the majority of the list of that video. When the 10's of thousands of users were censored and expelled from r/bitcoin they ended up congregating in r/btc. The strange thing was that the users listed in that video also moved over to r/btc and spend all day every day posting troll-like comments and misinformation. Naturally, they get heavily downvoted by the real users in r/btc. They spend their time constantly causing as much drama as possible. At every opportunity, they scream about "censorship" in r/btc while they are happy about the censorship in r/bitcoin. These people are astroturfers. What someone somewhere worked out, is that all you have to do to take down a community is say that you are on their side. It is an astoundingly effective form of psychological attack.




Very interesting, 

Human nature corrupts the idea of freedom. The alternative becomes the mainstream and copies the very thing it was trying to be free from. All the laws and regulators can't fully stop the big banks only limit them. 

You can't change human nature it will always find a way no matter how smart the computer system seems. First the true believers, then the speculators pushing it way past utilitarian value now the big boys ripping out the heart of the technology and capitalising on the hype and hope.No doubt the technology will be used but will the coins still be valuable?

I made a big mistake not betting on the downside. The dragon might awake again or not, but that will have nothing to do with the fundamental utility of the coin only fear and greed.
	

		
			
		

		
	




But people are making an even bigger mistake believing in the ideology.

No ideology has ever been able to change the reality of human nature.


----------



## DB008

Skate said:


> I usually get exhausted reading long posts, but this post was informative & so well written.




I should give credit to the person who wrote that response - username is u/singularity87

Yes, it certainly is. I thought it was a bit long, but it is really a good read and insight into how Bitcoin is manipulated. This is just one side of the Bitcoin manipulation, l'm there are many, many other ways is it also manipulated also....


----------



## Skate

DB008 said:


> I should give credit to the person who wrote that response - username is u/singularity87
> 
> Yes, it certainly is. I thought it was a bit long, but it is really a good read and insight into how Bitcoin is manipulated. This is just one side of the Bitcoin manipulation, l'm there are many, many other ways is it also manipulated also....




Manipulation goes on more than we think or know, the uninformed and most Bitcoin traders never realises that this practice is highly orchestrated and planned with precision.

Skate


----------



## greggles

Bitcoin just holding above the US$6,000 level and back at October/November 2017 prices. There is a definite negative sentiment hovering around it at the moment that is weighing it down.


----------



## noirua

*Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest point since November and will probably be totally wiped out*
01/07/2018
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/new...-totally-wiped-out/ar-AAzofJv?ocid=spartandhp

My own view is that a floor for Bitcoin is around US$2,000. I always thought that late this year may well prove the time to buy but I doubt a high in 2019 will be above $4,000.  The long term chart seems to see $2,000 as the right price.
A general floor at $2,000 but occasional opportunistic dips much lower.


----------



## SuperGlue

Bitcoin (currently A$8,888.88 good sign) and others are slowly climbing after tax time.
Wonder how many traders/investors are claiming losses for their taxes.

Might put a hole in the ATO tax collection due to cryptocurrencies losses.

When it was booming ATO wants your profit and now it is down ATO will have to cop it

Just my 1/2 bitcoin thoughts.


----------



## greggles

Bitcoin making gains again. Up more than US$2,000 in the last 10 days and looking bullish.


----------



## greggles

The Bitcoin roller coaster ride continues.

CNN is reporting that the latest plunge is due to Goldman Sachs possibly dropping plans to launch a crypto trading desk.


----------



## trading_rookie

CNN is also reporting that someone shorted 10K BTC (USD$ 74M) just before the Goldman announcement...insider trading perhaps???

https://www.ccn.com/unsual-cryptocurrency-market-behavior-before-big-crypto-drop/


----------



## Wysiwyg

trading_rookie said:


> CNN is also reporting that someone shorted 10K BTC (USD$ 74M) just before the Goldman announcement...insider trading perhaps???
> 
> https://www.ccn.com/unsual-cryptocurrency-market-behavior-before-big-crypto-drop/



T/A entry.


----------



## greggles

I hadn't checked the Bitcoin price for a while until today and boy, has it taken a tumble in the last week and a half. From US$6,500 to US$4,400 since 8 November. What a flogging.

Cryptocurrencies have been off the boil for a while, but now it's like they have leprosy. Ugh!


----------



## sptrawler

Hopefully no asf members have been bitten, in the collapse.
IMO it was a great trading opportunity, but you would have had to be a great trader, to capitalise on it.
It certainly scared the $hit out of me.


----------



## cynic

sptrawler said:


> Hopefully no asf members have been bitten, in the collapse.
> IMO it was a great trading opportunity, but you would have had to be a great trader, to capitalise on it.
> It certainly scared the $hit out of me.



I think I can vaguely recall, one particular member, after some years absence, reemerging to sing of glorious victories from adventures within the cryptocurrency realm, before again disappearing.

A bit like cryptocurrency values I suppose -  here one day, and gone the next!


----------



## moXJO

The drop is imo due to the current war after the hard fork. Hoping bcash might reply to the other thread.

If you were talking about me,  I made a sht ton of money in the coin from selling half my postions. I've pretty much traded small short term postions since the crash. But nothing serious.
The money I lost , is from not selling my full position. In saying that I'm still deeply deeply in profit at the current price.

I bought in early and reaped the rewards. I didn't buy in late as I thought it was overpriced and I'm a cheap bastard.

I'm currently looking at the current crop of coins at this time.


----------



## moXJO

cynic said:


> I think I can vaguely recall, one particular member, after some years absence, reemerging to sing of glorious victories from adventures within the cryptocurrency realm, before again disappearing.
> 
> A bit like cryptocurrency values I suppose -  here one day, and gone the next!



People that got in early are still  rich and deeply in profit on bitcoin.
The guys crying about crypto are the ones that bought during the spike, or those that missed out.

For me crypto was the greatest trade ever. I don't care about where things are now. I care about how much I made on the trade. 

Same with property. I use to biatch and moan about property crashing and it being too high. Until a poster on this board convinced me otherwise and to get in. I bought with my ears pinned back and reaped the rewards.


----------



## cynic

moXJO said:


> People that got in early are still  rich and deeply in profit on bitcoin.
> The guys crying about crypto are the ones that bought during the spike, or those that missed out.
> 
> For me crypto was the greatest trade ever. I don't care about where things are now. I care about how much I made on the trade.
> 
> Same with property. I use to biatch and moan about property crashing and it being too high. Until a poster on this board convinced me otherwise and to get in. I bought with my ears pinned back and reaped the rewards.



This was an occasion when my wariness was, almost undoubtedly, the primary thing standing between myself and sensational investment returns.

As you are no doubt already aware, with the exception of the mining/generation aspect, crypto appears to be an essentially "zero sum" game. As such, a mixture of winners and losers was inevitable. 

So I do not begrudge you your handsome profits. Your foray, presumably, entailed some level of speculative risk, and you are to be congratulated on having navigated yourself into the ranks of the winners.

Bravo!


----------



## greggles

Bitcoin continues its recent decline. Currently down to US$3,406.4 and looking very sick. Volume has increased substantially since it slipped below US$6,400 last month so it looks like a race to the door at the moment.


----------



## verce

Is the bottom in?


----------



## Value Collector

verce said:


> Is the bottom in?




I am not sure a natural price floor exists, IMO this thing could eventually go to nearly $0 ones the hype is gone.


----------



## Ann

Value Collector said:


> I am not sure a natural price floor exists, IMO this thing could eventually go to nearly $0 ones the hype is gone.




I was looking at a chart for a crypto yesterday called a Qwark. I can't find a Qwark thread so I will just drop it here if I may?
I know nothing about this stuff but I saw it seemed to be at a possible floor and may bounce up.


----------



## moXJO

I think a few coins have hit a "floor".
Problem is if they are going to visit the basement. One bad news item can scare off the crowd.

There is a lot going on in the background with crypto. Banks are now jumping on board with their own blockchain. And the amount of new tech and industry that has spawned is huge.

People will need to get greedy and FOMO before we see any real gains though.


----------



## noirua

moXJO said:


> I think a few coins have hit a "floor".
> Problem is if they are going to visit the basement. One bad news item can scare off the crowd.
> 
> There is a lot going on in the background with crypto. Banks are now jumping on board with their own blockchain. And the amount of new tech and industry that has spawned is huge.
> 
> People will need to get greedy and FOMO before we see any real gains though.




A well known item in Canada has not done a lot to inspire confidence. Gerard Cotten contracted Crohn's disease on a visit to India: https://www.dreshare.com/gerald-cotten/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47203706
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadriga_Fintech_Solutions
Crohn's Disease: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crohn's_disease


----------



## moXJO

noirua said:


> A well known item in Canada has not done a lot to inspire confidence. Gerard Cotten contracted Crohn's disease on a visit to India: https://www.dreshare.com/gerald-cotten/
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47203706
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadriga_Fintech_Solutions
> Crohn's Disease: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crohn's_disease



Just goes to show how new the industry is. Crypto is still in its early days and these types of incidents will be big learning lessons for the future. Plenty more to come imo


----------



## noirua

*$1.3 Million Bitcoin Scam Swindles Victims in Thailand.*
19 February 2019
https://www.share-talk.com/1-3-million-bitcoin-scam-swindles-victims-in-thailand/


----------



## Fxortrader

BTCUSD 0.17% OFF FROM $ 4060 DOWN PRICE AT $ 4043 PRICE.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Lightning Labs has released a new feature about the usefulness of lightning networks, a bitcoin payment channel technology aimed at increasing cryptocurrency.

Called "Lightning Loop," users will be able to accept bitcoin in increasing numbers without having to close and reopen the new payment channel.

Opening of regular bitcoin is a blockchain transaction. However, the payment channel is opened, users can send Bitcoin payments almost instantly and at a fraction of the cost.

It is expected that after the release of the produck from lightning laps, the price of Bitcoin will be able to break through $ 4126 / 1BTC.


----------



## Ann

*Majority of bitcoin trading is a hoax, new study finds*

_Key Points_

_Ninety-five percent of spot bitcoin trading volume is faked by unregulated exchanges, according to a study from Bitwise this week._
_The firm analyzed the top 81 crypto exchanges by volume on industry site CoinMarketCap.com. They report an aggregated $6 billion in average daily bitcoin volume. The study finds that only $273 million of that is legitimate._
_ “People looked at cryptocurrency and said this market is a mess; that’s because they were looking at data that was manipulated,” says Matthew Hougan, global head of research at Bitwise.  *More...*_


----------



## Fxortrader

In December 2017 when Cboe became the first exchange market to offer derivative crypto options, Bitcoin and its digital currency counterparts were traded at the nosebleed (severe) level. Now, crypto winter has lasted more than a year. When Bitcoin futures are launched, the hope is to play an important role in legitimizing crypto assets, driving demand and providing less risky ways for new investors - both retail and institutional - to participate. Is the Cboe suspension against Bitcoin futures products the beginning of cryptocurrency graduation?

Ryan Radloff, CEO of CoinShares believes this contract does not mean much to the larger crypto market infrastructure. "We are not worried about losing them," he said. He believes there will be no real impact.

For one thing, rivals the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will continue to trade Bitcoin futures. Also, Radloff notes:

"One of the 'industrial' cases for the BTC futures contract, at least in the crypto community, is to hedge income from Bitcoin mining. In the case of a CBOE cash settlement contract, the risk of getting a different maturity price from the one actually available on the market is too high to use it as an efficient hedge, so physical delivery wins every time. "

Laurent Kssis, managing director of the XBT Provider summed up:

"In the race for more transparent, professional-grade products with a mechanism for efficient price discovery and greater liquidity, Cboe seems to be giving the market to CME."

Of course, part of the problem for Bitcoin Cboe futures products is the lack of trading volume. According to CryptoCompare, from January to February 2019 Cboe volume drops by around 31% while the CME daily average increases by more than 23%.

￼
	

		
			
		

		
	





Average Daily Bitcoin Futures Volumes

Courtesy: CryptoCompare

Some of this could be because the margin requirement for BTC futures trading at CME is 35% while it is 40% in Cboe to calculate BTC volatility.

Kssis speculates that low volume costs must exceed revenue benefits given the decline in basic asset prices.

"On the professional side, market makers prefer to hedge futures contracts using completed 'physical' contracts to reduce the risk of settlement price manipulation. With cash settlement contracts, settlement prices are never really efficient at maturity. As a result, it would appear that the buyer of this contract is only a speculator, using leverage offers.

After the long-awaited physical contract came to the market, I think most contracts that are settled in cash lose their appeal because the market will usually choose one delta vehicle that is more efficient and professional when faced with opportunities. "

Some crypto market players are disappointed, but recognize that suspension is more related to business models than asset class failures. En Hui Ong, head of business development at Zilliqa, the public blockchain platform, said:

"Although some are worried that the announcement is a sign of waning institutional interest, it is actually a matter of competition and convenience. CME competitors have their own Bitcoin futures product, with a 1 Cboe contract equal to 1 Bitcoin (BTC) and 1 CME contract equal to 5 BTC, this indicates that CME has more competitive and attractive products. "

In addition, he explained, regarding the settlement, Cboe also announced that it would only take the price of the Gemini auction cryptocurrency exchange. Single source prices open opportunities for price manipulation, which leads to greater risk.

Instead, CME has taken a far more measurable approach, using prices from several exchanges while improving its ownership process to reduce the potential for price manipulation. "Thus," noted Ong, "Cboe announcements should not be considered as a reflection of the state of institutional interest in cryptocurrency. They only have products that fail to gain market share."


----------



## Ann

*Cryptocurrencies Are Here To Stay*
_

Is Bitcoin doomed to failure? It is not hard to find commentary on the internet indicating that Bitcoin is bound to fail. The authors invariably point to aspects of Bitcoin’s implementation today and argue that the current state is not consistent with success.

I take these comments about Bitcoin as comments about private cryptocurrencies more generally and will treat them that way.

It is hard to foresee Bitcoin’s future. Ken Olsen said that "there is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home" in 1977. It is easy to square that statement with computers of the day. Few would have found it worthwhile to have a computer in a dedicated computer room at a controlled temperature of about 65 degrees with backup power to avoid catastrophic damage. The statement is ridiculous in light of the computers in many people’s pockets today. A Samsung S8 is over 20 times more powerful than supercomputers of that day.

Many aspects of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more generally are likely to change in the coming decades. There is no reason to think that innovation in cryptocurrencies stopped with the creation of Bitcoin. There are issues. But it is not a large stretch of imagination to imagine some or all of them will be resolved in various ways.

It is fair to say that cryptocurrencies are not obviously likely to replace, for example, the dollar used in transactions in the United States given reasonably good monetary policy, a point made by Will Luther, for example. There is no obvious gain to people in the United States from changing to a different currency to buy groceries. A currency has to have problems such as hyperinflation in Venezuela for cryptocurrencies to become viable for use on a regular basis. Cryptocurrencies also are a good way to circumvent capital controls.

That said, it also is true that the current incarnation of Bitcoin has issues if it is to become a currency in common use anywhere. “Scalability” is a term that summarizes many of these issues. The number of separate transactions on Bitcoin’s blockchain is quite limited. The maximum number of Bitcoin transactions is currently capped at about 400,000 per day. This is trivial compared to the number of transactions that Visa processes, about 150,000,000 per day.  More..._


----------



## greggles

*Bitcoin is suddenly hot again as it surges past $5,000 — but no one knows why it's rallying*




Could it have something to do with April Fool's Day?


----------



## Ann

*Ex-NFL Owner Said to Be Tied to $850 Million Crypto Mystery*

_When New York’s attorney general last week accused Bitfinex -- one of the world’s largest crytocurrency exchanges -- of hiding the loss of about $850 million in client and corporate cash, a crucial question was left unanswered: What happened to the money?_

_Bitfinex contends the funds haven’t gone missing at all. The exchange says the money was deposited with a Panamanian-company called Crypto Capital Corp. and then, through no fault of Bitfinex’s, seized by government authorities in the U.S., Poland and Portugal._


_The wild story took another turn April 30 when federal prosecutors announced a grand jury had indicted Reginald Fowler, a 60-year-old Arizona businessman who once had a small stake in the NFL’s Minnesota Vikings. Fowler, along with an Israeli woman named Ravid Yosef, was accused of running an unlicensed money transmitting operation tied to virtual currency trading. More.._


----------



## DB008

Total number of transactions over time increasing


----------



## Ann

*Bitcoin Jumps to 9-Month High as Cryptocurrencies Roar Back*

_Bitcoin surged to the highest level since August, as cryptocurrencies extended their rebound from a slump last month amid the New York attorney general’s investigation of a key part of the market.

Bitcoin rose as much as 6.9% to $7,445, before trading at $7,341.37 as of 7:45 a.m. Hong Kong time on Sunday, according to Bitstamp. All five members of the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index are up more than 10% since Friday, based on pricing from Bitstamp and Bitfinex. More..._


----------



## moXJO

Quick everyone,  Bitcoin's  the future again.


----------



## SuperGlue

moXJO said:


> Quick everyone,  Bitcoin's  the future again.




Its getting hot again.

*‘If you’re not a billionaire’ *in 10 years ‘it’s your own fault,’ says 20-year-old bitcoin tycoon

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...itcoin-tycoon-2019-05-14?mod=mw_theo_homepage


----------



## moXJO

SuperGlue said:


> Its getting hot again.
> 
> *‘If you’re not a billionaire’ *in 10 years ‘it’s your own fault,’ says 20-year-old bitcoin tycoon
> 
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...itcoin-tycoon-2019-05-14?mod=mw_theo_homepage



Time to ramp these shtcoins to the moon SuperG.

Come on everyone its totally legit this time!!!!



Disclaimer: May not be legit


----------



## verce

https://www.theguardian.com/technol...s-to-launch-globalcoin-cryptocurrency-in-2020

Facebook is planning to launch its own cryptocurrency in early 2020, allowing users to make digital payments in a dozen countries.

The currency, dubbed GlobalCoin, would enable Facebook’s 2.4 billion monthly users to change dollars and other international currencies into its digital coins. The coins could then be used to buy things on the internet and in shops and other outlets, or to transfer money without needing a bank account.

Mark Zuckerberg, the founder and chief executive of Facebook, last month met the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, to discuss the plans, according to the BBC.

Zuckerberg has also discussed the proposal, known as Project Libra, with US Treasury officials and is in talks with money transfer firms, including Western Union, to develop cheap, safe ways for people to send and receive money. A report last year said Facebook is working on a cryptocurrency that would let users transfer money using WhatsApp, its encrypted mobile-messaging app.


----------



## jfufgiugfx

So eyeballing the chart it looks like btc could move higher to around 9.5k US, and then we continue this major bear market down to 2k US. It could take another 12 months before we bottom out.


----------



## verce

I think the bottom was 3.3k USD


----------



## jfufgiugfx

Yes most think the bottom is in but I think the downward range will continue. I have never seen a complete 'V' in crypto markets. The 'V' would have to start at ATH, bottom at 3.3k then continue up.


----------



## Ann

Will this give Bitcoin a major competitor?....

*Facebook will reportedly announce cryptocurrency this month, allowing employees to take it as salary*

_Facebook will announce its cryptocurrency later this month, and will allow employees working on the project to take their salary in the form of the new currency, according to a report in The Information.

About a year ago, the company appointed former PayPal executive David Marcus to begin exploring opportunities with blockchain, the technological underpinning for cryptocurrency. Since then, several outlets have reported that the company has been building its own digital currency, which users will be able to store, trade, and exchange for regular currency, in part through Facebook apps including Messenger and WhatsApp. The report adds that Facebook is also planning physical ATM-like machines where users can by the currency. More..._


----------



## verce

Ann said:


> Will this give Bitcoin a major competitor?....
> 
> *Facebook will reportedly announce cryptocurrency this month, allowing employees to take it as salary*
> 
> _Facebook will announce its cryptocurrency later this month, and will allow employees working on the project to take their salary in the form of the new currency, according to a report in The Information._
> 
> _About a year ago, the company appointed former PayPal executive David Marcus to begin exploring opportunities with blockchain, the technological underpinning for cryptocurrency. Since then, several outlets have reported that the company has been building its own digital currency, which users will be able to store, trade, and exchange for regular currency, in part through Facebook apps including Messenger and WhatsApp. The report adds that Facebook is also planning physical ATM-like machines where users can by the currency. More..._




Hi @Ann

I actually take the opposite view - anything that onboards new and unbanked customers onto the blockchain and cryptocurrency is actually a big validation of Bitcoin. I expect a huge boost to BTC and ETH as a result.


----------



## verce

But I could be completely wrong, as is often the case.


----------



## Ann

verce said:


> I actually take the opposite view - anything that onboards new and unbanked customers onto the blockchain and cryptocurrency is actually a big validation of Bitcoin. I expect a huge boost to BTC and ETH as a result.



What an interesting comment verce, that is very thoughtful. Sort of like the currencies of different countries?  

Many years ago in the early days of bitcoin my son was a 'miner' if that is the correct term. He was a bitcoin bull and was trying to convince me into buying in. I told him, if I can't chart it, I don't want it. See why I have Fool as my emblem. 



verce said:


> But I could be completely wrong, as is often the case.




I have a massive growing respect for you verce, it started on PO3 and has been growing ever since!


----------



## verce

Ann said:


> What an interesting comment verce, that is very thoughtful. Sort of like the currencies of different countries?
> 
> Many years ago in the early days of bitcoin my son was a 'miner' if that is the correct term. He was a bitcoin bull and was trying to convince me into buying in. I told him, if I can't chart it, I don't want it. See why I have Fool as my emblem.
> 
> 
> 
> I have a massive growing respect for you verce, it started on PO3 and has been growing ever since!




@Ann - all I can say is I feel the same way. I'm thankful that we had our PO3 dispute - because if it wasn't for that, I never would have got to know you!

You make me want to be a better investor.


----------



## verce




----------



## verce




----------



## verce

Welcome to the future!



What an exciting time to be alive!


----------



## So_Cynical

verce said:


> Welcome to the future!
> 
> 
> 
> What an exciting time to be alive!





FBC as a ticker?


----------



## verce

Looking positive.


----------



## verce

I would caution people not to dismiss Bitcoin lightly. Considering that it has – whether it be through accidental genius or otherwise - developed a social compact which enforces cooperation and trust between third parties unlike anything we have ever seen before.

The blockchain significantly restricts the ability of malicious actors to undermine the system and strongly promotes consensus and cooperation. The security of the protocol is determined by the longest chain, which has the greatest proof-of-work effort invested in it. The valid chain run by honest miners will grow the fastest and outpace any competing chains.

*To modify a past block, an attacker would have to redo the proof-of-work of the block and all blocks after it and then catch up with and surpass the work of the honest nodes. *This is nearly a decade of immutable work with incredible security. It's the perfect store of wealth during times of uncertainty.

Sure, there are problems. Transactions need some work to scale, but this is most likely going to be addressed over time. This is something new, unlike anything we have seen before in human history. Nobody really understands it. People are excited, and also afraid of it. Now that it has cracked 10k, there’s clearly no going back at this point. This literally came out of nowhere and has survived against all the odds and despite all the naysayers. If you don't see the value in that, that's on you.

Those comparing BTC to “Tulip mania” fail to understand that once the Tulip bubble burst, that was it. It was over. Bitcoin has gone through this crash/recover/crash cycle before, and still gone on to make new all-time highs. Is it really a bubble if the asset comes back to life, with better results than before? I would argue it is still in the price discovery and accumulation phase.


----------



## ducati916

verce said:


> Hi @Ann
> 
> I actually take the opposite view - anything that onboards new and unbanked customers onto the blockchain and cryptocurrency is actually a big validation of Bitcoin. I expect a huge boost to BTC and ETH as a result.




Currently crypto transactions account for a trifling value re. transactions for actual goods and services, part of the issue obviously the issue re. scaleability. 


What about the issue re. 'ownership' of the wallet?

jog on
duc


----------



## moXJO

Will higher lows translate into  higher highs?


----------



## Ownthebitcoin

verce said:


> I would caution people not to dismiss Bitcoin lightly. Considering that it has – whether it be through accidental genius or otherwise - developed a social compact which enforces cooperation and trust between third parties unlike anything we have ever seen before.
> 
> The blockchain significantly restricts the ability of malicious actors to undermine the system and strongly promotes consensus and cooperation. The security of the protocol is determined by the longest chain, which has the greatest proof-of-work effort invested in it. The valid chain run by honest miners will grow the fastest and outpace any competing chains.
> 
> *To modify a past block, an attacker would have to redo the proof-of-work of the block and all blocks after it and then catch up with and surpass the work of the honest nodes. *This is nearly a decade of immutable work with incredible security. It's the perfect store of wealth during times of uncertainty.
> 
> Sure, there are problems. Transactions need some work to scale, but this is most likely going to be addressed over time. This is something new, unlike anything we have seen before in human history. Nobody really understands it. People are excited, and also afraid of it. Now that it has cracked 10k, there’s clearly no going back at this point. This literally came out of nowhere and has survived against all the odds and despite all the naysayers. If you don't see the value in that, that's on you.
> 
> Those comparing BTC to “Tulip mania” fail to understand that once the Tulip bubble burst, that was it. It was over. Bitcoin has gone through this crash/recover/crash cycle before, and still gone on to make new all-time highs. Is it really a bubble if the asset comes back to life, with better results than before? I would argue it is still in the price discovery and accumulation phase.




I agree with your points.  Bitcoin bubble has only just started in my opinion. Only a smaller percentage of the global population know about it let alone own it. When the S$%t hits the fan, people will flock to safe havens.

Gold is a store of value. But what else can you do with it besides bury it in your backyard. That's where Bitcoin has a distinction as it can be also used as a form of currency.  I would choose Bitcoin any day given it's limited supply and scarcity.

Plus you can't manipulate it. No one owns it. There is no CEO. You can't summon them to court.

During the next GFC, there will be a transition of wealth from fiat to another asset class. This is why I've created a website to bring awareness to the everyday people.

Don't listen to the naysayers. Even Mr Trump has come out against BTC - what does he know? He has more to lose if BTC replaces the USD. Even more reason to accumulate IMO.  You will never become financially free listening to the media. Make your own decision.


----------



## StockyGuy

Ownthebitcoin said:


> Even Mr Trump has come out against BTC - what does he know? He has more to lose if BTC replaces the USD. Even more reason to accumulate IMO.  You will never become financially free listening to the media. Make your own decision.




The USD is the world's reserve currency - backed by the world's greatest superpower.  The USA is not only the most powerful militarily and financially, unlike the two competitors to the crown people are begging to live in the USA - foreigners rarely choose to live in China, Russia.  People buy US bonds because they want to be shareholders in the greatest power in world history, despite its government debt level.  That's what the USD represents currently.  At this time it also has the highest central bank interest rate among major trading currencies with a floating exchange rate.  While I accept no hegemony lasts forever, historically the big empires tend to stick around for a while.

Compare that to Bitcoin.  BTC may well have more medium term very profitable trading opportunities, no doubt.  Likewise there may be a place for cryptocurrency in the future long term but to assume that will be specifically BTC itself is rather bold.  There's others that have a lot of strong points.  (Maybe someone should create a crypto and call it the Bulb, as in tulip bulb, for the lulz.)  Just my two AUD cents


----------



## wayneL

Ownthebitcoin said:


> I agree with your points.  Bitcoin bubble has only just started in my opinion. Only a smaller percentage of the global population know about it let alone own it. When the S$%t hits the fan, people will flock to safe havens.
> 
> Gold is a store of value. But what else can you do with it besides bury it in your backyard. That's where Bitcoin has a distinction as it can be also used as a form of currency.  I would choose Bitcoin any day given it's limited supply and scarcity.
> 
> Plus you can't manipulate it. No one owns it. There is no CEO. You can't summon them to court.
> 
> During the next GFC, there will be a transition of wealth from fiat to another asset class. This is why I've created a website to bring awareness to the everyday people.
> 
> Don't listen to the naysayers. Even Mr Trump has come out against BTC - what does he know? He has more to lose if BTC replaces the USD. Even more reason to accumulate IMO.  You will never become financially free listening to the media. Make your own decision.



Gold had it's problems... divisibility etc,  but supposing the poo really hits the propeller and the internet goes down.

How do you spend bitcoin to buy some stale bread, dried pig ears and a .38 magnum and ammo?


----------



## Ownthebitcoin

wayneL said:


> Gold had it's problems... divisibility etc,  but supposing the poo really hits the propeller and the internet goes down.
> 
> How do you spend bitcoin to buy some stale bread, dried pig ears and a .38 magnum and ammo?



That's an extreme case. If the internet goes down there will be much bigger problems. Not sure how a bar gold will help you buy a loaf a bread either.


----------



## lusk

Ownthebitcoin said:


> I agree with your points.  Bitcoin bubble has only just started in my opinion. Only a smaller percentage of the global population know about it let alone own it. When the S$%t hits the fan, people will flock to safe havens.
> 
> Gold is a store of value. But what else can you do with it besides bury it in your backyard. That's where Bitcoin has a distinction as it can be also used as a form of currency.  I would choose Bitcoin any day given it's limited supply and scarcity.
> 
> Plus you can't manipulate it. No one owns it. There is no CEO. You can't summon them to court.
> 
> During the next GFC, there will be a transition of wealth from fiat to another asset class. This is why I've created a website hedgewithcrypto to bring awareness to the everyday people.
> 
> Don't listen to the naysayers. Even Mr Trump has come out against BTC - what does he know? He has more to lose if BTC replaces the USD. Even more reason to accumulate IMO.  You will never become financially free listening to the media. Make your own decision.




Seriously you believe they will allow it to replace the USD?

What allows you to believe in it and hold all the way up will make you hang on all the way down.


----------



## Ownthebitcoin

StockyGuy said:


> The USD is the world's reserve currency - backed by the world's greatest superpower.  The USA is not only the most powerful militarily and financially, unlike the two competitors to the crown people are begging to live in the USA - foreigners rarely choose to live in China, Russia.  People buy US bonds because they want to be shareholders in the greatest power in world history, despite its government debt level.  That's what the USD represents currently.  At this time it also has the highest central bank interest rate among major trading currencies with a floating exchange rate.  While I accept no hegemony lasts forever, historically the big empires tend to stick around for a while.
> 
> Compare that to Bitcoin.  BTC may well have more medium term very profitable trading opportunities, no doubt.  Likewise there may be a place for cryptocurrency in the future long term but to assume that will be specifically BTC itself is rather bold.  There's others that have a lot of strong points.  (Maybe someone should create a crypto and call it the Bulb, as in tulip bulb, for the lulz.)  Just my two AUD cents



The debt riddled USA and its USD has the most to lose. Of course i cant say bitcoin will certainly replace it, but there is no denying people are starting to look for alternative means for paymemt - that is easy, safe and low fee's.
 Its like a virus. You cant stop peoples desire for a better way or system. The fiat currency, does not serve the people.
Bitcoin will play its part in the USD collapse.

If it was truly worthless with no threat to the USD and will go to zero, why regulate it? There are aready multiple global companies accepting it as payment right now.


----------



## Ownthebitcoin

lusk said:


> Seriously you believe they will allow it to replace the USD?
> 
> What allows you to believe in it and hold all the way up will make you hang on all the way down.





lusk said:


> Seriously you believe they will allow it to replace the USD?
> 
> What allows you to believe in it and hold all the way up will make you hang on all the way down.



Of course governments wont allow it. 
But you just cant remove  bitcoin unless every single country in the world all agree to close exchanges (or the internet). Which wont happen.

The US fear it because they will lose control of the money and in return they then cant control YOU.


----------



## wayneL

Ownthebitcoin said:


> That's an extreme case. If the internet goes down there will be much bigger problems. Not sure how a bar gold will help you buy a loaf a bread either.



That was my point about divisibililty.

But just a small point that might be worthy of everyone's consideration here, the US dollar is not controlled by the US government but by the privately-owned Federal Reserve. I don't really know what that means in total but you can bet your bottom dollar that they will protect their interests.


----------



## StockyGuy

You can get the smaller gold and silver rounds.  Maybe have to buy the bakery, though.  I suspect even in an apocalyptic scenario the appeal of gold to humans will remain.  It's pretty.  I get the point about divisibility but in fact it actually is divisible in a RELATIVELY low-tech manner - very malleable.

If we were truly at the end of civilisation though, frankly weapons of any sort might be the only thing that matters.  Weapons of all sorts might BE the currency.

If it gets utterly medieval, weapons can purchase anything, at a cost of zero.  Hopefully we never go back to such times.


----------



## moXJO

StockyGuy said:


> Hopefully we never go back to such times.



Actually many countries experience this now.

As for the internet going down,  Russian subs have already been mapping deep sea cables. No doubt China would do the same.


----------



## qldfrog

I wish to move my BTC from the exchange into a "paper form" idealy these lists of key words
Anyone with recommendations


----------



## moXJO

qldfrog said:


> I wish to move my BTC from the exchange into a "paper form" idealy these lists of key words
> Anyone with recommendations



There are hard wallets you can use.


----------



## qldfrog

Out of the usb sticks i use, i would say 20pc are dead after 3y or so 
So you can understand my reluctance i to putting a bitcoin with a full loss in 20pc of cases within 3years
But keen to know about people own experience


----------



## kid hustlr

qldfrog said:


> Out of the usb sticks i use, i would say 20pc are dead after 3y or so
> So you can understand my reluctance i to putting a bitcoin with a full loss in 20pc of cases within 3years
> But keen to know about people own experience




I bought a nano s. Cost me 100 bucks but it does the job and satisfies all the tin foil hat theories in protecting ones crypto.

I own btc only


----------



## qldfrog

kid hustlr said:


> I bought a nano s. Cost me 100 bucks but it does the job and satisfies all the tin foil hat theories in protecting ones crypto.
> 
> I own btc only



@kid hustlr : how long have you had it, and are you not scared of the risk of hardware failure?
I am also only considering BTC here


----------



## Value Collector

StockyGuy said:


> The USD is the world's reserve currency - backed by the world's greatest superpower.  The USA is not only the most powerful militarily and financially, unlike the two competitors to the crown people are begging to live in the USA - foreigners rarely choose to live in China, Russia.  People buy US bonds because they want to be shareholders in the greatest power in world history, despite its government debt level.  That's what the USD represents currently.  At this time it also has the highest central bank interest rate among major trading currencies with a floating exchange rate.  While I accept no hegemony lasts forever, historically the big empires tend to stick around for a while.
> 
> Compare that to Bitcoin.  BTC may well have more medium term very profitable trading opportunities, no doubt.  Likewise there may be a place for cryptocurrency in the future long term but to assume that will be specifically BTC itself is rather bold.  There's others that have a lot of strong points.  (Maybe someone should create a crypto and call it the Bulb, as in tulip bulb, for the lulz.)  Just my two AUD cents




I totally agree.

And so do bitcoin owners even if they don’t realize it, in reality the only reason most of them are even trading bitcoin is because they want to get more US Dollars.

The real value that exists in society comes from the products and services our economy generates, and the USA generates its fair share of desirable products and services.

Sure it consumes a lot of low value goods and services from overseas, but it is exporting a lot of high value goods and services also.

There is a good reason I have a statue of Walt Disney as my avatar.


----------



## Value Collector

Ownthebitcoin said:


> The debt riddled USA and its USD has the most to lose. Of course i cant say bitcoin will certainly replace it, but there is no denying people are starting to look for alternative means for paymemt - that is easy, safe and low fee's.
> Its like a virus. You cant stop peoples desire for a better way or system. The fiat currency, does not serve the people.
> Bitcoin will play its part in the USD collapse.
> 
> If it was truly worthless with no threat to the USD and will go to zero, why regulate it? There are aready multiple global companies accepting it as payment right now.




You are delusional.  

Forget about bitcoin, and focus on owning assets and companies that generate real products and services that can be sold into the market, and use the profits to generate compounded growth.

Everything else is fake, including bitcoin.


----------



## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> @kid hustlr : how long have you had it, and are you not scared of the risk of hardware failure?
> I am also only considering BTC here



Reading a bit more reassured me, so order sent
Thanks


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> Forget about bitcoin, and focus on owning assets and companies that generate real products and services that can be sold into the market, and use the profits to generate compounded growth.
> 
> Everything else is fake, including bitcoin.



Bitcoin is all bluesky.The profits are real enough for me though. 
I say milk what you can.


----------



## qldfrog

moXJO said:


> Bitcoin is all bluesky.The profits are real enough for me though.
> I say milk what you can.



Exactly, the profit ate in real dollars


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> Bitcoin is all bluesky.The profits are real enough for me though.
> I say milk what you can.




Sure trade anything you can to make a profit, but don’t fall into the trap of believing the snake oil actually has value.


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> Sure trade anything you can to make a profit, but don’t fall into the trap of believing the snake oil actually has value.



Absolutely.

 But look for those zealot type true believers. They're your pathway to profits.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

omg.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/04/stu...rket-manipulator-pushed-bitcoin-to-20000.html


----------



## DB008

Just over a month ago (Nov 24 2019), new Bitcoin Core protocol was released

Bitcoin Core 0.19.0

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bitcoin-core-0.19.0-released:-heres-whats-new-2019-11-24​
This one stands out for me...

*Bech32 Addresses by Default in the GUI*​
The “bech32” address format (BIP 173) had already been introduced in Bitcoin Core 0.16.0, released in early 2018, but is now for the first time set as the default option in the Bitcoin Core wallet Graphical User Interface (GUI).

Bech32 addresses are the addresses starting with “bc1” (as opposed to addresses starting with a 1 or a 3.) These addresses are also a bit longer, but use fewer different characters than the current address format, as there is no longer a distinction between lowercase and capital letters. (This reduces the potential for human mistakes, for example, when an address is read out loud.) Bech32 addresses are also designed to limit mistakes caused by typos.

Additionally, bech32 offers benefits in the context of SegWit. Some wallets that offer SegWit — including the Bitcoin Core wallet by default up until now — do so by “wrapping” it into P2SH outputs (with addresses starting with a “3”). To spend bitcoin from such an address, users must reveal a piece of code — the “redeem script” — to show that the bitcoin were really locked up in a SegWit output. With the new bech32 addresses, this step can be skipped, which means that spending from a SegWit output will require a little less data to be transmitted over the Bitcoin network and included in the blockchain. This makes transactions from a bech32 output even cheaper than SegWit transactions from a P2SH output.

Since not all bitcoin wallets support sending to bech32 addresses yet, Bitcoin Core 0.19.0 users will still be able to optionally generate a PS2H receiving address instead, through a toggle in the GUI.​


----------



## peter2

How's bitcoin handling this coronavirus crisis?  Not well I see, -40% and still falling.


----------



## matty77

No surprise there, I would expect Bitcoin to act very similar to Gold when we are having an economic downturn. People sell out to pay off debt, that is what is happening right now. I still think it has some way to go and may test the $3500-$4000 mark or lower. 

Once the dust settles Bitcoin will be back bigger and stronger I think but for the next few months it will be a wild ride so hold on, also I think when it does bounce back we will see massive growth over a very short period of time.


----------



## satanoperca

Just showing what it is worth, nothing but if people believe in it, short term it has some value, long term, no value at all. 50% devaluation in less than a month and you think it will bounce back, lol.


----------



## Kryzz

peter2 said:


> How's bitcoin handling this coronavirus crisis?  Not well I see, -40% and still falling.
> 
> View attachment 101269




You almost posted on the day of the exact low here Peter! Put in a low about 10 days prior to the S&P and there seems to be a lot of chat about the correlation re BTC and equities of late.

Side note: have downloaded an app could Bamboo and put some spare coin into ETH & BTC these past few weeks. Handy little tool if anyone's interested.

Be interesting to see what BTC does as it nears the $8k mark, seems to be an interesting level.


----------



## sptrawler

How much bitcoin is out there, and is there a limit to how much is generated.
(I would put in the question marks, but now I've lost the question mark as well as the last letter of the alphabet, that rhymes with ed).
I'm going to have to pull this laptop to bits, is it possible to clean the contact under the keyboard, question mark.


----------



## matty77

How much bitcoin is out there? Its not so much a relevant question to be honest. 

What you really need to ask is how much bitcoin out there is usable, not lost, not in wallets that are being watched, not forgotten or burnt? Nobody actually knows the answer to that question. The current circulating supply is around 18,342,737 but again, that doesnt mean a hell of a lot.

You would be amazed how much crypto is stuck in wallets never to be used again... more then most people think.

The max supply is theoretically 21,000,000 BTC but the *usable *supply is the big question.. The last bitcoin will be mined in? 2140? again nobody knows, plus the cost to mine those coins just might not be worth it anyway, again nobody knows at this point.

Either way I am happy with my BTC investments at the moment, doing a lot better then some other things I have going, plus I can cash out in seconds if need be and I control 100% of the funds so thats a bonus.


----------



## matty77

Kryzz said:


> You almost posted on the day of the exact low here Peter! Put in a low about 10 days prior to the S&P and there seems to be a lot of chat about the correlation re BTC and equities of late.
> 
> Side note: have downloaded an app could Bamboo and put some spare coin into ETH & BTC these past few weeks. Handy little tool if anyone's interested.
> 
> Be interesting to see what BTC does as it nears the $8k mark, seems to be an interesting level.




Just a quick one on Bamboo, so they monitor your expenses and then effectively use your "spare change"to buy small bits of crypto. I hope you trust these guys 100% because I wouldnt let people have that sort of info ever.


----------



## verce

satanoperca said:


> Just showing what it is worth, nothing but if people believe in it, short term it has some value, long term, no value at all. 50% devaluation in less than a month and you think it will bounce back, lol.




Keep in mind that the market cap for Bitcoin is about 150 billion USD right now. For a global currency/global asset, that is quite a small market cap and naturally means it will be subject to increased volatility. By way of example, the total value of US 100 dollar bills and the total value of Euro 100 dollar notes is about 2.5 trillion. You have to consider the size of the potential economy that Bitcoin might serve in the future - which is undoubtedly global in scope.

Even if you don't think it's pertinent to your area of focus today, it *IS* emerging as a new asset class, and its current penetration of various financial channels is so small in footprint that prices are inevitably going to go MUCH higher. If Wall Street dedicates resources to this space (and we are starting to see hedge funds and banks do this now e.g. Grayscale, Deutsche Bank) it's going to flourish and become a very important aspect of modern portfolio theory.

People think gold is the only store of value out there. But people also use fancy artwork, real estate, cars and collectibles to store value - that's a ~280 trillion USD market for the primary purpose of parking money. If Bitcoin ends up being just 1% of the global store of value market, that's potentially $150,000 per coin.

From a mile away I can see the value transfer towards Bitcoin happening as digital millennials grow up and inherit wealth. Will they buy more gold like the boomers, or will they prefer something that is more digital and speaks to their generation personally? Time will tell.

Bloomberg put out a report this month which is well worth reading if you can find it.



*(Bloomberg Intelligence)* _-- The stock market's shakeout will temporarily drag on Bitcoin, in our view, but with an outcome more reminiscent of gold's after the 2008 financial crisis. Coming into existence in 2009, the first-born crypto is faring relatively well, down less than a quarter as much as the S&P 500 in 2020 despite being almost 5x as risky on a volatility-weighted basis._

_Bitcoin's 24/7 price transparency, and the lack of limits, interruptions or third-party oversight, is an accomplishment for an asset just a decade old. *This year marks a key test for Bitcoin's transition toward a quasi-currency like gold, and we expect it to pass*. Unlike the stock-market reset but similar to gold's, Bitcoin had its shakeout, stabilizing the foundation amid unprecedented global monetary stimulus and increasing adoption._


----------



## verce

verce said:


> Keep in mind that the market cap for Bitcoin is about 150 billion USD right now. For a global currency/global asset, that is quite a small market cap and naturally means it will be subject to increased volatility. By way of example, the total value of US 100 dollar bills and the total value of Euro 100 dollar notes is about 2.5 trillion. You have to consider the size of the potential economy that Bitcoin might serve in the future - which is undoubtedly global in scope.
> 
> Even if you don't think it's pertinent to your area of focus today, it *IS* emerging as a new asset class, and its current penetration of various financial channels is so small in footprint that prices are inevitably going to go MUCH higher. If Wall Street dedicates resources to this space (and we are starting to see hedge funds and banks do this now e.g. Grayscale, Deutsche Bank) it's going to flourish and become a very important aspect of modern portfolio theory.
> 
> People think gold is the only store of value out there. But people also use fancy artwork, real estate, cars and collectibles to store value - that's a ~280 trillion USD market for the primary purpose of parking money. If Bitcoin ends up being just 1% of the global store of value market, that's potentially $150,000 per coin.
> 
> From a mile away I can see the value transfer towards Bitcoin happening as digital millennials grow up and inherit wealth. Will they buy more gold like the boomers, or will they prefer something that is more digital and speaks to their generation personally? Time will tell.
> 
> Bloomberg put out a report this month which is well worth reading if you can find it.
> 
> View attachment 103030
> 
> *(Bloomberg Intelligence)* _-- The stock market's shakeout will temporarily drag on Bitcoin, in our view, but with an outcome more reminiscent of gold's after the 2008 financial crisis. Coming into existence in 2009, the first-born crypto is faring relatively well, down less than a quarter as much as the S&P 500 in 2020 despite being almost 5x as risky on a volatility-weighted basis._
> 
> _Bitcoin's 24/7 price transparency, and the lack of limits, interruptions or third-party oversight, is an accomplishment for an asset just a decade old. *This year marks a key test for Bitcoin's transition toward a quasi-currency like gold, and we expect it to pass*. Unlike the stock-market reset but similar to gold's, Bitcoin had its shakeout, stabilizing the foundation amid unprecedented global monetary stimulus and increasing adoption._




Where did everybody go?


----------



## noirua

_The Bitcoin halving will take place sometime in May 2020 [May 12 2020]. What is the halving, how will it affect the price, and what does it mean for miners and the cryptocurrency's long-term prospects? Here's everything you need to know._
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-halving-explainer

-----

The basic problem for Bitcoin Miners is the increased use of energy and that their software is only really good for the bin. In the words of Max Keiser, "they are toast".


----------



## verce

The energy invested is proof of work which is part of the security of the blockchain. There are far more destructive and wasteful industries people should focus on first before looking at computers.

I don’t understand why it’s good for the bin? Can you elaborate?


----------



## derangedlawyer

verce said:


> *(Bloomberg Intelligence)* _-- The stock market's shakeout will temporarily drag on Bitcoin, in our view, but with an outcome more reminiscent of gold's after the 2008 financial crisis. Coming into existence in 2009, the first-born crypto is faring relatively well, down less than a quarter as much as the S&P 500 in 2020 despite being almost 5x as risky on a volatility-weighted basis._
> 
> _Bitcoin's 24/7 price transparency, and the lack of limits, interruptions or third-party oversight, is an accomplishment for an asset just a decade old. *This year marks a key test for Bitcoin's transition toward a quasi-currency like gold, and we expect it to pass*. Unlike the stock-market reset but similar to gold's, Bitcoin had its shakeout, stabilizing the foundation amid unprecedented global monetary stimulus and increasing adoption._




That didn't age well.


----------



## verce

derangedlawyer said:


> That didn't age well.




We have all been hoodwinked by the bull trap from 3800 USD to 8800 USD!


----------



## verce

Bitcoin has attributes superior to gold including its portability, divisibility, seizure resistance, liquidity, and verifiability. Try sending gold halfway around the world and assaying its purity within minutes, a practice Bitcoin enables with ease.

Bitcoin is the quintessence of scarcity, as it is the only globally tradable asset that has a known fixed supply cap. Other scarce assets like gold and real estate have irregular production schedules, and new gold mining and construction technologies may lead to a supply glut in the future.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

from the BBC
_
Bitcoin has just gone through a much-hyped adjustment that reduced the rate at which new coins are created. The world's biggest cryptocurrency's so-called "halving" happens roughly every four years.The digital currency relies on what are known as "miners", who run software that races to solve complex maths puzzles in return for Bitcoins.

Monday's halving event means that the reward for unlocking a "block" has been cut from 12.5 new coins to 6.25. 

Halving was written into the cryptocurrency's code by its creator, who is known as Satoshi Nakamoto, to control inflation. This is the third halving since Bitcoin's creation in 2009. The first took place in November, 2012, and the second in July 2016. The next halving is due to take place in May 2024.

Bitcoin's code also means that rewards to miners will continue to halve every 210,000 blocks until they reach zero in around two decades' time, limiting the total number of Bitcoins that will ever exist to 21 million. This is because - unlike currencies such as the dollar, pound or euro - digital currencies have no central banks to regulate their supply_.



> Supporters of the cryptocurrency say that this scarcity is part of what underpins its value and makes it a potential safe haven against currencies that are vulnerable to devaluation during times of economic crisis. The digital currency has gained more than 20% since the start of this year, touching $10,000 last week. That came after a report that hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones has backed the cryptocurrency as a safeguard against inflation. However some investors have highlighted that halving could make the cryptocurrency less attractive to miners. "The incentive is less for miners now to mine Bitcoin. Miners will probably switch to more profitable cryptocurrencies," Stephen Innes from AXI Corp told the BBC.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

> The digital currency has gained more than 20% since the start of this year, touching $10,000 last week. That came after a report that hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones has backed the cryptocurrency as a safeguard against inflation.



 .... whose report can be found in this link
https://www.docdroid.net/H1fuimX/the-great-monetary-inflation-pdf



> COVID-19 is a one-of-a-kind virus that has triggered a one-of-a-kind policy response globally. The depth and magnitude of the economic drop-off took modern monetary theory, or the direct monetization of massive fiscal spending, from the theoretical to practice without any debate.
> A. Debt Addiction
> B. Money Printing is a Hard Habit to Kick
> C. Seeking Refuge from the *Great Monetary Inflation*




_There is a host of assets that at one time or another have worked well in reflationary periods:
1. Gold ... A 2,500 year store of value
2. The Yield Curve ... Historically a great defense against stagflation or a central bank intent on inflating. For our purposes we use long 2-year notes and short 30-year bonds 
3. NASDAQ100 ... The events of the last decade have shown that quantitative easing can rapidly leak into equity markets
4. *Bitcoin *... There is a lengthy discussion of this below 
5. US cyclicals (long)/US defensive (short) ... A pure goods’ inflation play historically
6. AUD-JPY ... Long commodity exporter and short commodity importer
7. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) ... Indexed to CPI to protect against inflation
8. GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) ... A basket of 24 commodities that reflects underlying global economic growth
9. JPM Emerging Market Currency Index ... Historically when global growth is high and inflationary pressures are building, emerging market currencies have done quite well._

_In seeking refuge, he grades these "Stores of Value" with 4 characteristics_
_1. Purchasing Power_
_2. Trustworthiness_
_3. Liquidity_
_4. Portability_

Of course, assuming we will see *THE GREAT MONETARY INFLATION*


----------



## wayneL

The thing that I don't get with bitcoin is apart from the very subjective value market participants place on it, it seems to be no better in fiat in that regard. Another words equalise on confidence to have any value whatsoever.

On the other hand gold and other precious metals do have a cost of production which serves as some sort of a value floor. On this basis I made some purchases last year in my belief that God was at a value floor, or very close to it anyway.

I guess my question here is what is the minimum value of bitcoin if any, is there a cost of production for a bitcoin? Is there any value in bitcoin beyond what is tantamount to the markets confidence in it?

Cairns Central banks and governments destroy that value?


----------



## wayneL

further when we talk about stores of values there is the assumption that the Stiller value will still exist if things really turn to crap.

Let's imagine a scenario where some belligerent detonates a nuke above Australia and takes out our entire digital system.

What happens to bitcoin then?

One may posit that we would have more problems in that situation than finances, but yet again physical gold would retain some sort of actual value.

I realise that I am going well out, a few sigmas, on the probability curve; but we are currently in a situation that was unpredictable. 

The current situation makes a whole host of other situations which were seemingly highly improbable, more probable now.

Repeat my question is how does bitcoin hedge against those situationa, outside of a well-functioning digital world?


----------



## So_Cynical

wayneL said:


> I guess my question here is what is the minimum value of bitcoin if any, is there a cost of production for a bitcoin?




Producing BTC is called mining, it requires capex, equipment, time, space, expertise and electrical power.


----------



## wayneL

So_Cynical said:


> Producing BTC is called mining, it requires capex, equipment, time, space, expertise and electrical power.



Okay

So the question then becomes what is the cost of producing a bitcoin?

Also what happens if the digital economy is destroyed via nuclear attack or whatever. What is the intrinsic value of bitcoin then?

I realise that the same questions apply for gold but in the end you have a metal with certain properties in your hand... Which incidentally functioned before the digital economy.

I'm not a gold bug by any stretch of the imagination but just trying to figure this out.


----------



## verce

wayneL said:


> Okay
> 
> So the question then becomes what is the cost of producing a bitcoin?
> 
> Also what happens if the digital economy is destroyed via nuclear attack or whatever. What is the intrinsic value of bitcoin then?
> 
> I realise that the same questions apply for gold but in the end you have a metal with certain properties in your hand... Which incidentally functioned before the digital economy.
> 
> I'm not a gold bug by any stretch of the imagination but just trying to figure this out.




Hi Wayne

Couple of points:

The last figure I heard quoted regarding *the break-even cost* of producing a Bitcoin was around *8000 USD* (derived from an institutional model developed by a reputable data science team).

What happens if the digital economy is destroyed via a nuclear attack? I think Aussie Stock Forums and investing in general is going to be the LEAST of your concerns at that point, which I deem extremely improbable. But, in the event the world recovered from such an apocalyptic scenario, the blockchain would still be there and can pick up where it left off quite easily.

Gold has thousands of years of history and consensus behind it. Bitcoin is 11 years old. It's doing very well as an emerging asset class. I wouldn't write it off just yet. New things are always uncomfortable and scary at first.


----------



## wayneL

verce said:


> Hi Wayne
> 
> Couple of points:
> 
> The last figure I heard quoted regarding *the break-even cost* of producing a Bitcoin was around *8000 USD* (derived from an institutional model developed by a reputable data science team).
> 
> What happens if the digital economy is destroyed via a nuclear attack? I think Aussie Stock Forums and investing in general is going to be the LEAST of your concerns at that point, which I deem extremely improbable. But, in the event the world recovered from such an apocalyptic scenario, the blockchain would still be there and can pick up where it left off quite easily.
> 
> Gold has thousands of years of history and consensus behind it. Bitcoin is 11 years old. It's doing very well as an emerging asset class. I wouldn't write it off just yet. New things are always uncomfortable and scary at first.



Clearly there is a bunch of stuff which I just haven't got my head around with cryptocurrencies... ask me about option pricing models or futures and I can talk for the next 15 hours, but I have no idea what blockchain means etc. Nor how it would $8,000 to produce a bitcoin.

Is there a resource, a website, or a book which can explain it all without insulting my intelligence?


----------



## noirua

wayneL said:


> Clearly there is a bunch of stuff which I just haven't got my head around with cryptocurrencies... ask me about option pricing models or futures and I can talk for the next 15 hours, but I have no idea what blockchain means etc. Nor how it would $8,000 to produce a bitcoin.
> 
> Is there a resource, a website, or a book which can explain it all without insulting my intelligence?



*What is Bitcoin? Bitcoin Explained Simply for Dummies*


----------



## wayneL

Thanks @noirua


----------



## qldfrog

wayneL said:


> Thanks @noirua



To put it very very simply, mining Bitcoin is "just" crunching numbers in a computer..a lot..i mean a lot, this takes hardware..a computer..some are built just for that and you can buy bitcoin mining computer in Shenzhen electronic market.
Manpower..very small and limited as you have whole data centers with a guy checking that all is going well in case of failure etc
And then the BIG item is power.
No bitcoin mining in Australia.:-(
I know some Bitcoin farms in China (data centre) are established at the bottom of hydroelectric dams and sucking power straight from the turbines.
Here's a US one:

And in China/Russia same and bigger
The only miners in Australia are doing it small scale
 and often using cpu and power stolen from uni or employers by running hidden software overnight etc

A bitcoin is CPU+power and designed scarity.
Hope it helps


----------



## wayneL

qldfrog said:


> To put it very very simply, mining Bitcoin is "just" crunching numbers in a computer..a lot..i mean a lot, this takes hardware..a computer..some are built just for that and you can buy bitcoin mining computer in Shenzhen electronic market.
> Manpower..very small and limited as you have whole data centers with a guy checking that all is going well in case of failure etc
> And then the BIG item is power.
> No bitcoin mining in Australia.:-(
> I know some Bitcoin farms in China (data centre) are established at the bottom of hydroelectric dams and sucking power straight from the turbines.
> Here's a US one:
> 
> And in China/Russia same and bigger
> The only miners in Australia are doing it small scale
> and often using cpu and power stolen from uni or employers by running hidden software overnight etc
> 
> A bitcoin is CPU+power and designed scarity.
> Hope it helps




Wowee! I got the gist of the mining thing from following on noirua' s video, but never realised it was on that scale, Holy Dooley!

Gradually getting my head around it though, blockchain and all that sort of stuff.

Given the process, Jeez it was a no brainer at under $5,000 US recently.... And an absolute steel at the recent lows of 3700 or whatever it was.

I was looking at it at those levels but because I didn't really understand how it all worked I stood aside, kicking myself.


----------



## qldfrog

But time changes, if quantum computing can do that computation in no time, then in a few days, we could reach a no more bitcoin bitcoin ever
Remember aluminium was once a precious metal and now just electricity.pity the bugger finding lingot of aluminium buried by his ancestor who sold useless farming land in Manhattan to put it safely in the new platinum of the time....
I do own 1 bitcoin.
Please be noted you can buy or sell parts of bitcoin if you want to so it is flexible


----------



## SuperGlue

qldfrog said:


> I do own 1 bitcoin.




Before or after halving?

So Bit-Aud have to go up to ~$28K for me to break even if I had bought at $14K, is that right?
I'm crypto ignorant.


----------



## qldfrog

SuperGlue said:


> Before or after halving?
> 
> So Bit-Aud have to go up to ~$28K for me to break even if I had bought at $14K, is that right?
> I'm crypto ignorant.



bought before, but halving as far as I understand it is halving the return on farmed bitcoin, not your portfolio you still own 1 bitcoin which is worth 14.4k AUD


----------



## SuperGlue

qldfrog said:


> bought before, but halving as far as I understand it is halving the return on farmed bitcoin, not your portfolio you still own 1 bitcoin which is worth 14.4k AUD




A big thank you for info. 
What a relief.

Bitcoin is now 14.7K


----------



## verce

qldfrog said:


> But time changes, if quantum computing can do that computation in no time, then in a few days, we could reach a no more bitcoin bitcoin ever
> Remember aluminium was once a precious metal and now just electricity.pity the bugger finding lingot of aluminium buried by his ancestor who sold useless farming land in Manhattan to put it safely in the new platinum of the time....
> I do own 1 bitcoin.
> Please be noted you can buy or sell parts of bitcoin if you want to so it is flexible




I just want to add in here that yes, quantum computing may become a reality in the very distant future. Probably after all of us here are long gone!

But it cuts both ways. Bitcoin can be easily upgraded to accommodate quantum computing, which would undoubtedly be used to secure the blockchain and maintain security of the network.


----------



## verce

wayneL said:


> Clearly there is a bunch of stuff which I just haven't got my head around with cryptocurrencies... ask me about option pricing models or futures and I can talk for the next 15 hours, but I have no idea what blockchain means etc. Nor how it would $8,000 to produce a bitcoin.
> 
> Is there a resource, a website, or a book which can explain it all without insulting my intelligence?




@wayneL 

I implore you to watch my video link as well. It's addressed at members of the US Senate Banking Committee so it's very easy to understand. Let me know what you think.


----------



## verce

And here's a video just for fun!


----------



## verce




----------



## Smurf1976

qldfrog said:


> And then the BIG item is power.



As an order of magnitude, Bitcoin mining is estimated to use roughly the same amount of electricity (globally) as the whole of Victoria and SA combined use for all purposes including the Portland aluminium smelter, the Port Pirie lead smelter, the Whyalla steelworks and other heavy industry as well as every house, office, school, farm and so on.

The issue of electricity theft is one that the electricity distributors are extremely well aware of by the way. Without passing judgement, the sort of person who sets up a room full of computers at home is the sort of person who likely can work out how to by-pass their electricity meter. That doesn't of course mean they're all crooks and will do it, just that if someone's got a room full of computers then they probably do have some technical knowledge when it comes to electrical things. They can work out how to do it and with the amount of power needed there's an incentive to do so.

I'm aware of one mining operation at the "backyard" scale where the waste heat given off by the computers provides the entire heating needs of the house via a ducting system. So the heat goes into an intake duct and is either blown outside or into the house depending on heating needs.

That could get interesting in the unlikely but not impossible chance they get randomly picked to participate in a household energy use survey. The "method of heating the main living area" question doesn't have a "Bitcoin mine" box to tick on the form, or at least it didn't have last time I saw one.


----------



## derangedlawyer

This is notable.


----------



## wayneL

derangedlawyer said:


> This is notable.




It would be interesting to find out who is long and who is short, it's a shame that we don't have some sort of COT type report on these... or is there?


----------



## noirua

*Satoshi Nakaboto: ‘TV host Max Keiser says Bitcoin will go to $400k, not $100k’*
https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/202...keiser-says-bitcoin-will-go-to-400k-not-100k/

“I am officially raising my target for Bitcoin — and I first made this prediction when it was $1, I said this could go to $100,000 — I’m raising my official target for the first time in eight years, I’m raising it to $400,000.”
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-will-surge-to-400k-max-keiser-quadruples-btc-price-forecast

RT - https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/


----------



## verce

noirua said:


> *Satoshi Nakaboto: ‘TV host Max Keiser says Bitcoin will go to $400k, not $100k’*
> https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/202...keiser-says-bitcoin-will-go-to-400k-not-100k/
> 
> “I am officially raising my target for Bitcoin — and I first made this prediction when it was $1, I said this could go to $100,000 — I’m raising my official target for the first time in eight years, I’m raising it to $400,000.”
> https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-will-surge-to-400k-max-keiser-quadruples-btc-price-forecast
> 
> RT - https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/




I would take anything this guy says with a grain of salt. 400,000 USD per coin is absolutely ridiculous. For that to happen, the global economy would have to be looking pretty bleak.

Realistically, I would say 50,000 USD is easily attainable within 24 months from now. By 2024 (the next halving of the block reward) probably 100,000 USD.

People shouldn't view Bitcoin as a get rich quick scheme, but as a way of preserving wealth and avoiding getting poor slowly.

Just my $0.02


----------



## noirua

*Bitcoin's Sentiment Score Post-Halving Rises to Highest Since 2017*
*19 May 2020*
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoins-sentiment-score-post-halving-rises-to-highest-since-2017

One week after the Bitcoin rewards halving, investors are speaking more positively about the coin than they have at any point over the last 2.5 years according to crypto data company The TIE.


----------



## noirua

*Bitcoin Activity on the Dark Web Grew by 65% in Q1 2020, Says Study*
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-activity-on-the-dark-web-grew-by-65-in-q1-2020-says-study
A study from Crystal Blockchain Analytics on May 19 shows that the total USD value of Bitcoins transferred on the dark web rose by 65% in Q1 2020, despite a decline in transactions during the same period in 2019.


----------



## verce

Here comes Goldman Sachs
https://www.forbes.com/sites/colinh...bout-bitcoin-gold-and-inflation/#1f02f8b71eff


----------



## verce

@wayneL


----------



## verce

verce said:


> Here comes Goldman Sachs
> https://www.forbes.com/sites/colinh...bout-bitcoin-gold-and-inflation/#1f02f8b71eff
> View attachment 103738




Goldman Sachs are *NOT *fans of Bitcoin.


----------



## wayneL

verce said:


> Goldman Sachs are *NOT *fans of Bitcoin.
> 
> View attachment 103885



These are the points I'm struggling with.

I'm sure I'm missing something, on one level they just seem like tulip bulbs to me, yet on another level I can see some sort of utility... blockchain and all that.

But I'm still an absolute novice with these.


----------



## noirua

verce said:


> Goldman Sachs are *NOT *fans of Bitcoin.
> 
> View attachment 103885





verce said:


> Goldman Sachs are *NOT *fans of Bitcoin.
> 
> View attachment 103885



Goldman Sachs are thought by many to be wrong on every point and missing all the important ones.  Many individuals of the unscrupulous kind and about 100 countries see bitcoin as a way of escaping the eye of American, European and major Asian countries or in other words 'big brother' they see as bully boys.
As long as very many accept bitcoin it doesn't matter one eyeota what anybody thinks.  If a country like Iran accepts bitcoin and can find others who do also they can survive.  A crooked little empire of gangsters and pirates can always unload their wares.


----------



## sptrawler

noirua said:


> Goldman Sachs are thought by many to be wrong on every point and missing all the important ones.  Many individuals of the unscrupulous kind and about 100 countries see bitcoin as a way of escaping the eye of American, European and major Asian countries or in other words 'big brother' they see as bully boys.
> As long as very many accept bitcoin it doesn't matter one eyeota what anybody thinks.  If a country like Iran accepts bitcoin and can find others who do also they can survive.  A crooked little empire of gangsters and pirates can always unload their wares.



I always come back to the belief, we will end up with a digital currency and Bitcoin has capitalised on that.
However every Country wants to have some sovereign control over their money and monetary policy, so I can't see how a secondary currency can get traction, other than on the black market.
So you are probably right, but as the World becomes more interconnected, the more it closes in on the black market.
The more people avoid taxes, the more establishment has to clamp down, because the tax base gets smaller.


----------



## wayneL

Okay but my understanding is that you still have to buy bitcoin through an exchange which are subject to the country's laws and reporting requirements, are they not?

How would criminals convert cash to bitcoin untraced?


----------



## sptrawler

wayneL said:


> Okay but my understanding is that you still have to buy bitcoin through an exchange which are subject to the country's laws and reporting requirements, are they not?
> 
> How would criminals convert cash to bitcoin untraced?



I think it is a bit like trading non degrading bananas, as long  as someone is prepared to pay for them, the value keeps increasing.
That is untill you take them to the bank.
Just my opinion.


----------



## verce

wayneL said:


> These are the points I'm struggling with.
> 
> I'm sure I'm missing something, on one level they just seem like tulip bulbs to me, yet on another level I can see some sort of utility... blockchain and all that.
> 
> But I'm still an absolute novice with these.




I understand the concerns of Goldman Sachs. But doesn't every hard asset - or even equities for that matter - depend on the proposition that someone else will come along in the future and want to pay a higher price for more than you bought it?

Food for thought...


----------



## verce

Furthermore:
_*
"Bitcoin does not provide consistent diversification benefits given its unstable correlations."
*_
Isn't an uncorrelated hedge the very essence of diversification? Am I the only one who thinks this is a contradictory statement?


----------



## verce

satanoperca said:


> Just showing what it is worth, nothing but if people believe in it, short term it has some value, long term, no value at all. *50% devaluation in less than a month and you think it will bounce back, lol.*




It seems pretty resilient now. Managing to bounce back without any sort of bailout.


----------



## verce

*Bitcoin Could Be About To Surge To $100,000 After Stock-To-Flow Update Revealed*

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billyb...o-100000-after-stock-to-flow-update-revealed/


----------



## wayneL

Hmmmm interesting point.


----------



## verce

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...oin-crash-survival-shows-it-has-staying-power

*JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Crash Survival Shows It Has Staying Power*


----------



## verce

https://www.financemagnates.com/cry...y-support-cryptocurrency-direct-transactions/

*PayPal to Reportedly Support Cryptocurrency Direct Transactions*

Three sources have confirmed to the crypto industry publication that PayPal and its affiliated platform Venmo will allow their users to “directly” buy and sell several cryptocurrencies, though which coins they will support are yet to be revealed.


----------



## wayneL

I still don't own any bitcoin, yet.

I have had a flutter trading the cfds, which has gone ok, no different to trading anything really.

But it has been helpful disc to get my head around what it is all about, the risks, rewards etcetera.

I still can't say that I understand everything around it but I am gradually warming to it.


----------



## verce

wayneL said:


> I still don't own any bitcoin, yet.
> 
> I have had a flutter trading the cfds, which has gone ok, no different to trading anything really.
> 
> But it has been helpful disc to get my head around what it is all about, the risks, rewards etcetera.
> 
> I still can't say that I understand everything around it but I am gradually warming to it.





I applaud you for having such an open mind to new technology. I remember also thinking it was a ponzi scheme, but then I researched some more, reflected on it for some time, and then decided it was a useful uncorrelated hedge that you can happily park 1% of your net wealth in and just forget about for a while.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

verce said:


> I applaud you for having such an open mind to new technology. I remember also thinking it was a ponzi scheme, but then I researched some more, reflected on it for some time, and then decided it was a useful uncorrelated hedge that you can happily park 1% of your net wealth in and just forget about for a while.




Back it with gold, and I might touch it; without gold backing it, it is essentially worthless.


----------



## verce

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Back it with gold, and I might touch it; without gold backing it, it is essentially worthless.




Why does gold have value? Because there is a consensus it does.

In the new world, maybe Bitcoin will be the new consensus. Could be wrong. But what if I'm right?


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

verce said:


> Why does gold have value? Because there is a consensus it does.
> 
> In the new world, maybe Bitcoin will be the new consensus. Could be wrong. But what if I'm right?




You can try to change a millennia of established thinking if you like.

Aside from the obvious monetary value of gold, it is used in highly advanced technologies; ask NASA where gold is used


----------



## wayneL

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Back it with gold, and I might touch it; without gold backing it, it is essentially worthless.



It is this point that I struggle with most and I don't have an answer to that.

But also, he only currency that is backed by gold, is gold itself. Hence why I have already acquired  as much as I think is prudent... Perhaps even a little overweight.

But, I have listened to some pretty compelling arguments for it.

At the the end of the day, what's the upside, what's the downside... And what is a prudent allocation?

The downside is easy, as with almost any unleveraged instrument, particularly equities, it is 100% loss (assuming you don't exit beforehand).

But what is the upside?

This is a question that I am struggling to answer, despite the bullishness from some of the macro folks.

Complicating matters is the current macroeconomic situation, I don't think there is very much time to learn about and implement strategies to protect ones meagre cache of Pacific Pesos.

0kay... Well my personal view is that we will have a deflationary episode, before a strongly inflationary one. But that could be wrong we may just leave straight into inflation.

I'm just thinking that I should have a bet each way on that outcome. Yes, Gold and Silver.... But could there be more upside in the cryptocurrencies?

that's what I'm trying to figure out that's where I am trying to come to some sort of a half intelligent decision.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

wayneL said:


> It is this point that I struggle with most and I don't have an answer to that.
> 
> But also, he only currency that is backed by gold, is gold itself. Hence why I have already acquired  as much as I think is prudent... Perhaps even a little overweight.
> 
> But, I have listened to some pretty compelling arguments for it.
> 
> At the the end of the day, what's the upside, what's the downside... And what is a prudent allocation?
> 
> The downside is easy, as with almost any unleveraged instrument, particularly equities, it is 100% loss (assuming you don't exit beforehand).
> 
> But what is the upside?
> 
> This is a question that I am struggling to answer, despite the bullishness from some of the macro folks.
> 
> Complicating matters is the current macroeconomic situation, I don't think there is very much time to learn about and implement strategies to protect ones meagre cache of Pacific Pesos.
> 
> 0kay... Well my personal view is that we will have a deflationary episode, before a strongly inflationary one. But that could be wrong we may just leave straight into inflation.
> 
> I'm just thinking that I should have a bet each way on that outcome. Yes, Gold and Silver.... But could there be more upside in the cryptocurrencies?
> 
> that's what I'm trying to figure out that's where I am trying to come to some sort of a half intelligent decision.




I don't need to think into Crypto too much; they need to back it with gold or silver for me to buy it.


----------



## verce

Chronos-Plutus said:


> You can try to change a millennia of established thinking if you like.
> 
> Aside from the obvious monetary value of gold, it is used in highly advanced technologies; ask NASA where gold is used




So the industrial and jewellery applications of gold do not account for its current inflated value. 80% of the gold price is speculation due to its scarcity. Food for thought.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

verce said:


> So the industrial and jewellery applications of gold do not account for its current inflated value. 80% of the gold price is speculation due to its scarcity. Food for thought.




Mate; I don't care what Crypto does. Make a market backed by a hard asset, or don't. The Crypto market is just a penny in a pond; compared to the gold market.


----------



## verce

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Mate; I don't care what Crypto does. Make a market backed by a hard asset, or don't. The Crypto market is just a penny in a pond; compared to the gold market.




You aren’t wrong. Gold has a multi thousand year history, Bitcoin is barely 10 years old.

That would suggest to me that the penny in a pond has a long way to go!


----------



## wayneL

Could gold go to $100,000 in the next 5 years ago. I stress that I like gold for all the reasons you probably like it, but short of some sort of super hyperinflation I can't see it.

Could bitcoin do that?

I really have no idea at all, honestly I just don't know. But there are a lot of macro economists who think that some sort of move like that is possible.

I struggle to understand why it should, but I definitely think that it could.


----------



## verce

wayneL said:


> Could gold go to $100,000 in the next 5 years ago. I stress that I like gold for all the reasons you probably like it, but short of some sort of super hyperinflation I can't see it.
> 
> Could bitcoin do that?
> 
> I really have no idea at all, honestly I just don't know. But there are a lot of macro economists who think that some sort of move like that is possible.
> 
> I struggle to understand why it should, but I definitely think that it could.




Keep in mind gold's market cap is around 9 trillion, while Bitcoin's market cap is only 170 billion.

Also, some interesting news I noticed:

https://smallcaps.com.au/australia-post-pay-bitcoin-customers-mass-adoption/

*Australians can now pay for Bitcoin at Australia Post*


----------



## wayneL

A couple of things that I have come across recently that has really helped me to get my head around the Bitcoin space.

The first one was a simple sentence. We all know the phrase "follow the money". Someone I was listening to recently added an adjunct to that, viz "follow the smart people".

The second one address is what I have actually always struggle with with regarding to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.... How to value them and a meaningful way.

This video goes quite some way in addressing that problem and probably goes  some 75% of the way in satisfying my query about Bitcoin valuation.



Additionally, Paul Tudor Jones has quite publicly added bitcoin to his hedge fund portfolio.

I still think there are some hurdles to overcome. I think thre does remain a risk that Bitcoin goes to 0. 

That's the downside (which can be hedged via various strategies especially option strategies on Bitcoin futures l

Bitcoin to a milion dollars or whatever number you manage to pluck out of the air, is the upside though. Risk/reward is asymmetrical to the positive.

No one can deny that volatility is massive, which actually really plays into using options strategies around a core holding, both to hedge and reduce volatility

So, yes, I am wading in and as I learnt more and more about this space, I'm rather excited about it. @verce


----------



## verce

Wayne, I have a lot of respect and admiration for your level-headed and open-minded analysis, and I warmly welcome you to this exciting new frontier of technology.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

Finally a breakout!


----------



## wayneL

BlindSquirrel said:


> Finally a breakout!
> View attachment 106358



With great fear, I've waded into the crypto space... more than I'm really comfortable with, roughly split between bitcoin and ether, so nice to see some movement.

I've been trying get my head around all the defi projects as well (unsuccessfully so far), but there have been moonshots there too. Probably a young bloke's caper who can figure that **** out lol.


----------



## ducati916

wayneL said:


> With great fear, I've waded into the crypto space... more than I'm really comfortable with, roughly split between bitcoin and ether, so nice to see some movement.
> 
> I've been trying get my head around all the defi projects as well (unsuccessfully so far), but there have been moonshots there too. Probably a young bloke's caper who can figure that **** out lol.




You cannot compare crypto to gold/silver. No-one (to date) can create gold/silver. Anyone can create a new crypto currency. That makes crypto analogous to fiat. The trouble with creating a crypto 'backed' by gold/silver is that like Nixon in '71, you can simply de-couple.

jog on
duc


----------



## wayneL

ducati916 said:


> You cannot compare crypto to gold/silver. No-one (to date) can create gold/silver. Anyone can create a new crypto currency. That makes crypto analogous to fiat. The trouble with creating a crypto 'backed' by gold/silver is that like Nixon in '71, you can simply de-couple.
> 
> jog on
> duc



That's a point I struggled with Duc and why I have stuck to these, especially BTC. There are a fair few vids on Realvision on this topic from some pretty credible players, but agree with your point in general.


----------



## qldfrog

wayneL said:


> That's a point I struggled with Duc and why I have stuck to these, especially BTC. There are a fair few vids on Realvision on this topic from some pretty credible players, but agree with your point in general.



Agree on the fiat analogy, except that the amount is limited in a given one like BTC;
I stuck to BTC too and saw potentially etherium as a more technical implementation vs BTC a more financial one
Disclaimer, I now just own BTC


----------



## BlindSquirrel

I've been following Nugget's News for crypto-related news. He puts out a good macro/crypto wrap-up each sunday night which is well worth the hour or so of my time. The group advises to keep to ETH & BTC until you know and are comfortable with what these DeFi projects are trying to do and how to obtain their tokens. 

Naturally I am ignoring that advice!


----------



## verce

satanoperca said:


> Just showing what it is worth, nothing but if people believe in it, short term it has some value, long term, no value at all. *50% devaluation in less than a month and you think it will bounce back, lol.*


----------



## verce

peter2 said:


> *How's bitcoin handling this coronavirus crisis?  Not well I see, -40% and still falling.*
> 
> View attachment 101269


----------



## verce

@peter2 @satanoperca


----------



## verce

Here comes Fidelity. 

https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.c.../documents/FDAS/bitinvthessisstoreofvalue.pdf

It is one of the largest asset managers in the world with $2.46 trillion in assets under management as of March 2018 and a combined total customer asset value number of $6.7 trillion.


----------



## verce

Bloomberg says

https://data.bloomberglp.com/professional/sites/10/Bloomberg-Indices-Outlook_Cryptos_August-2020.pdf

(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- Increasing adoption, relative scarcity and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop sustain Bitcoin's upward price bias on a stand-alone basis and vs. broader crypto assets. Breaching $10,000 in July, boosted by new highs in gold, helps transition this level to Bitcoin's support from resistance. The unexpected likely needs to occur to prevent a continued price advance for the benchmark crypto. Increasing adoption and vehicles for exposure, and custody, are accelerating Bitcoin into the mainstream of investments.

In a world of zero and negative interest rates and diminishing equity-price returns due to quantitative easing, the quasi- currency stores of value -- gold and Bitcoin -- are finding increasing investor interest. Bitcoin is gaining traction as the digital version of gold.


----------



## satanoperca

Look interesting, nice if you got the breakout


----------



## wayneL

satanoperca said:


> View attachment 107011
> 
> 
> Look interesting, nice if you got the breakout



~400USD seems to be a solid resistance level. A solid break from that and we're off to the races again.

I'm still like a new add a new gate with all this stuff but I certainly think the ETH story is solid, as far as my limited understanding is. (Along with BTC of course)


----------



## noirua

October 1 2020


----------



## wayneL

Just thinking we should be blowing some cobwebs off of this thread.

I have learnt a lot about cryptocurrencies  in the last 3 or 4 months, but still admittedly a complete novice... I feel like I know about 10% of what I need to know.

Raoul Pal is boasting about being irresponsible long. Paul Tudor Jones has bought a bit, and a fewcorporates are stocking up a bit of BTC for their reserves... among other pretty convincing news for BTC.

This is the first time ever in my investing career that I have ever used dollar-cost-averaging, and I am dollar cost averaging into ETH and especially BTC.

Of course it's a volatile beast and fully expect a lot of euphoria and pain in the future in my HODL strategy.

But by way of commentary, which will be pretty superfluous for anyone watching Bitcoin, the recent volatile move up to around $13,000US is being pretty sticky around that level at the moment.

I now have about 80% of my cash holdings in cryptos and precious metals, something I would have never imagined at this time last year... And despite the potential volatility there, I am feeling really very comfortable with that.

FWIW


----------



## verce

We are probably witnessing a paradigm shift and once in a lifetime transfer of wealth to digital natives.


----------



## Warr87

I used to use wallets and a ledger to store my cryptos. i'm now just using CFDs to trade them to be honest. can trade them as futures as well. i'm preferring the option of CFDs right now.


----------



## wayneL

Warr87 said:


> I used to use wallets and a ledger to store my cryptos. i'm now just using CFDs to trade them to be honest. can trade them as futures as well. i'm preferring the option of CFDs right now.



I'm using CFDs to wade in, then converting the underlying if I want to HODL that "tranch".

Yeah extra contest risk there, but also fiddling with some option strategies via FTX which is more than compensating right now


----------



## BlindSquirrel

I subscribed to Nuggets News a few months ago. The information that they've shared has allowed me to pay off that subscription several times over. It seems like there are some pretty knowledgeable folks over there. The weekly macro & crypto news videos that he puts out on Sunday nights (on youtube) are very informative.
It is exciting times indeed.


----------



## wayneL

BlindSquirrel said:


> I subscribed to Nuggets News a few months ago. The information that they've shared has allowed me to pay off that subscription several times over. It seems like there are some pretty knowledgeable folks over there. The weekly macro & crypto news videos that he puts out on Sunday nights (on youtube) are very informative.
> It is exciting times indeed.



I've been following Alex for a while but just have an aversion to paid subscriptions.... it will only take a moment of weakness until I cough up the moolah for that.

I'm finding Simon Dixon and Steven Livera educational too.

It's funny, but I am kind of enjoying being a nooob all over again.


----------



## DB008

There have been huge developments in the crypto world (Bitcoin) the last few months.


*Greyscale Investment Trust*​
Greyscale now has $6.5 Billion ‘AUM’ (Assets Under Management) and approximately 450,000 BTC.​​https://grayscale.co/bitcoin-trust/​


*Microstrategy*​
Microstrategy invested $425 million in BTC in Sep/Oct 2020 citing declining US Dollar (inflation) and nowhere else to park your money without erosion over long term time frames.​​​




With Bitcoin trading at a $13,320 price at the time of writing, Saylor’s Bitcoin holdings would be worth $263.3 million,
a roughly 30% increase between the time of purchase.​​Microstrategy invested in BTC link​


*Square (founded by Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey) invests $50 million USD into BTC*​ 
There have also been other Bitcoin proponents, prepared to commit large chunks of their portfolio to the cryptocurrency. On 7 October 2020, US merchant services aggregator Square Inc purchased 4,709 Bitcoins at an aggregate purchase price of US$50 million (A$70 million).​ 
Square has been working with Bitcoins in the crypto space since 2018 through its Cash App product, a means for customers to buy and sell Bitcoin securely.​ 
“To maintain transaction privacy and price slippage on execution, Treasury purchased the Bitcoin over-the-counter with a Bitcoin liquidity provider that we currently use as part of Cash App’s Bitcoin trading product,” the company announced.​​Square Inc Bitcoin purchase link​


*Paul Tudor Jones (legendary billionaire currency trader) and
has invested a percentage of his fund (Tudor Investment Corp) into BTC. *​
“The best profit-maximizing strategy is to own the fastest horse,” Jones, the founder and chief executive officer of Tudor Investment Corp., said in a market outlook note he entitled ‘The Great Monetary Inflation.’ “If I am forced to forecast, my bet is it will be Bitcoin.”​​Jones, who said his Tudor BVI fund may hold as much as a low single-digit percentage of its assets in Bitcoin futures, becomes one of the first big hedge fund managers to embrace what until now has largely been snubbed by the financial mainstream. He was motivated to take a hard look at Bitcoin after considering the implications of massive fiscal spending and bond-buying by central banks to combat the coronavirus pandemic.​​Tudor Investment Corp link​​​


*Stone Ridge Asset Management*​
Stone Ridge Asset Management confirming a $115m Bitcoin purchase this week. Following the acquisition, the $10bn private firm’s BTC holdings are under the custody of its spin-off New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG).​​Stone Ridge Asset Management link​​​​.​


----------



## DB008

If you have listen to this, l highly recommend it. Goes for a while, but when your buy $425 million worth of BTC, you better know what your doing.....



*Pomp Podcast #385: Michael Saylor On Buying Bitcoin With His Balance Sheet*







.​


----------



## DB008

Trezor has discounts this month on all products

https://shop.trezor.io/


*Discount code is TECHMONTH2020*​


For storing your seed









						Blockplate - Simple, Durable Bitcoin Wallet Seed Protection
					

Blockplate’s innovative metal seed storage is the absolute simplest way to protect your bitcoin wallet recovery phrase on durable, long-lasting steel. Third party tested and proven.




					www.blockplate.com
				






.​


----------



## DB008

Stock to Flow model





​


----------



## Roller_1

What do some of you guys recommend for long term positions of bitcoin? i want to get some exposure (5-10k) but not fully across everything. Is it best to buy and store in wallets or futures, i can't seem to see any main stream ETF's available. cheers


----------



## DB008

Roller_1 said:


> i want to get some exposure (5-10k) but not fully across everything




What does this mean?


----------



## Roller_1

DB008 said:


> What does this mean?




as in i dont fully understand the wallet system etc. Are they secure? What are the best options? 

Basically i want to get some exposure without turning it into a whole new strategy


----------



## DB008

I would advise extreme caution to newbies about purchasing a hardware wallet and moving funds there.

If you stuff it up, you can lose everything. I know someone who forgot a password, and is now locked out of his hardware wallet, about $100k gone.

Maybe just set up an account at a crypto exchange, and hold the funds on the exchange, with 2 factor auth set up.


----------



## Warr87

DB008 said:


> Stock to Flow model
> 
> View attachment 114189
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 114190​




Could you explain/expand a little for the uninitiated? I'm not sure what I'm supposed to be reading or inferring from this lol.


----------



## DB008

.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

DB008 said:


> Maybe just set up an account at a crypto exchange, and hold the funds on the exchange, with 2 factor auth set up.




Perhaps best to open accounts with a few different exchanges in case one gets hacked.
I've got Binance, Coinspot, Bittrex, Independent Reserve, Coinbase, FTX...


----------



## DB008

BlindSquirrel said:


> Perhaps best to open accounts with a few different exchanges in case one gets hacked.




I'm not sure that makes a difference.

I looked at what Coinspot offers in this regard

Scroll to bottom of page 

https://www.coinspot.com.au/security


*ISO 27001 Certification*​_In order to achieve the ISO 27001 standard as mandated by the International Organisation for Standardisation, CoinSpot was required to complete an external audit undertaken by SCI Qual International (an accredited JAS-ANZ certification body)._​​_The certification process requires an in-depth investigation and ongoing audits of Information Security Management processes and practices. This includes processes relating to the management of; digital asset storage, information relating to employees, contractors, suppliers, clients, products, processes, and intellectual property. These stringent policies are designed to eliminate unauthorised access, use, destruction, modification or closure of the organisations information management systems._​​​_*Industry Best Practice Offline Storage Protocols*_​_CoinSpot maintains industry best-practice by securing a vast majority of assets in highly secure offline locations._​​​_*Customisable Account Level Security*_​_*CoinSpot has a suite of customisable account security settings such as; Two-Factor Authentication, custom withdrawal restrictions and session timeout limit settings available to all users to improve the security of your account.*_​


I think the custom withdrawal might be the way to go - ie, disable withdrawal and provide ID and what-not to activate withdrawals. 

This is not financial advice, just my thoughts. I provide no financial advice regarding cryptocurrencies.

Also, does Coinspot provide U2F (like Yubikey) to login?

.​


----------



## DB008

Anyways, BTC is up. It is a very volatile market, could drop it's run up in minutes.


----------



## Warr87

DB008 said:


> Anyways, BTC is up. It is a very volatile market, could drop it's run up in minutes.




i'm happy. i got in but a bit lagged. I use 4hr charts and its been trending upwards since october 16.


----------



## DB008

Just some additional information for the new people joining this thread



*BITCOIN HALVING*
​
Reward-Drop ETA date: *09 May 2024 11:11:49 UTC*

​*What is a block halving event?*​​As part of Bitcoin's coin issuance, miners are rewarded a certain amount of bitcoins whenever a block is produced (approximately every 10 minutes). When Bitcoin first started, 50 Bitcoins per block were given as a reward to miners. After every 210,000 blocks are mined (approximately every 4 years), the block reward halves and will keep on halving until the block reward per block becomes 0 (approximately by year 2140). As of now, the block reward is *6.25* coins per block and will decrease to *3.125* coins per block post halving.​​​*Why was this done?*​​Bitcoin was designed as a deflationary currency. Like gold, the premise is that over time, the issuance of bitcoins will decrease and thus become scarcer over time. As bitcoins become scarcer and if demand for them increases over time, Bitcoin can be used as a hedge against inflation as the price, guided by price equilibrium is bound to increase. On the flip side, fiat currencies (like the US dollar), inflate over time as its monetary supply increases, leading to a decrease in purchasing power. This is known as monetary debasement by inflation. A simple example would be to compare housing prices decades ago to now and you'll notice that they've increased over time!​​​*Predictable monetary supply*​​Since we know Bitcoin's issuance over time, people can rely on programmed/controlled supply. This is helpful to understand what the current inflation rate of Bitcoin is, what the future inflation rate will be at a specific point in time, how many Bitcoins are in circulation and how many remain left to be mined.​​​​*Who controls the issuance of Bitcoin?*​​The network itself controls the issuance of Bitcoins, derived by consensus through all Bitcoin participants. Ever since Bitcoin was first designed, the following consensus rules exist to this day:​​
21,000,000 Bitcoins to ever be produced
Target of 10-minute block intervals
Halving event occurring every 210,000 blocks (approximately every 4 years)
Block reward which starts at 50 and halves continually every halving event until it reaches 0 (approximately by year 2140)

Any change to these parameters requires all Bitcoin participants to agree by consensus to approve the change.​​​​*Past halving event dates*​
The first halving event occurred on the 28th of November, 2012 (UTC) at block height 210,000
The second halving event occurred on the 9th of July, 2016 (UTC) at block height 420,000
The third halving event occurred on the 11th of May, 2020 (UTC) at block height 630,000

​*Past halving price performance*​​It is always a debate on what Bitcoin will do in terms of pricing for a halving event. Some people believe that the halving is already priced in by the market and thus there's no expectation for the price to do anything. Others believe that due to price equilibrium, a halving of supply should cause an increase in price if demand for Bitcoins is equal or greater than what it was before the halving event. Below is a chart showing past price performance of the two halving events:​​
​

Link to site with live halving countdown -

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/



.​


----------



## DB008

*Bitcoin Hashrate*
​
*Explanation*​​The difficulty is a measure of how difficult it is to mine a Bitcoin block, or in more technical terms, to find a hash below a given target. A high difficulty means that it will take more computing power to mine the same number of blocks, making the network more secure against attacks. The difficulty adjustment is directly related to the total estimated mining power estimated in the Total Hash Rate (TH/s) chart.​​​*Notes*​​The difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks (every 2 weeks approximately) so that the average time between each block remains 10 minutes.​​​*Methodology*​​The difficulty comes directly from the confirmed blocks data in the Bitcoin network.​​​​​







https://btc.com/stats/diff



.​


----------



## grah33

It might be better than gold, as you actually get to spend it on stuff.

There doesn't seem to be any funds out there  on the asx for bitcoin ... but forex mt4 (leveraged ) CFDs might be a good way to go as well


----------



## wayneL

grah33 said:


> It might be better than gold, as you actually get to spend it on stuff.
> 
> There doesn't seem to be any funds out there  on the asx for bitcoin ... but forex mt4 (leveraged ) CFDs might be a good way to go as well



BTC gurus speak about "uptake" and that the inevitable ETF might be the ultimate factor in that.

IMO, that is almost inevitable at some stage FWIW


----------



## kenny

grah33 said:


> There doesn't seem to be any funds out there on the asx for bitcoin




There are a few *unlisted* funds focusing on cryptocurrencies but I've found it difficult to assess and compare as one would with other managed funds. Other issues I see include;

Fees are higher than you would expect of hedge funds or absolute return funds.
Lack of transparency in mandates, portfolio, trading action, exposure.
Cybersecurity
Level of technical and training expertise in the operating partners and investment committee.
Lack of track record (FWIW)
I found this article handy from BDO;

https://www.bdo.com.au/en-au/insigh...ew-and-easier-way-to-invest-in-digital-assets


----------



## DB008

grah33 said:


> There doesn't seem to be any funds out there on the asx for bitcoin ... but forex mt4 (leveraged ) CFDs might be a good way to go as well




Yeah, l'm not too sure about the ASX, but there are a few in the USA where you can get exposure to BTC.

Why not just buy BTC yourself on an exchange? It's a relatively easy process to get set up, probably easier than buying stocks.

What l love about BTC is that it's a 24/7/365 market.


----------



## Warr87

DB008 said:


> Yeah, l'm not too sure about the ASX, but there are a few in the USA where you can get exposure to BTC.
> 
> Why not just buy BTC yourself on an exchange? It's a relatively easy process to get set up, probably easier than buying stocks.
> 
> What l love about BTC is that it's a 24/7/365 market.



Unfortunately the CFDs i trade dont trade weekends. Can make for some interesting gaps on Monday haha. 

Given you can buy futures for BTC, could make for an etf. I imagine the returns could be volatile.


----------



## DB008

BTC punching through $16k USD overnight, and still holding up. WOW. Just above $22k AUD.


----------



## DB008

Almost nudging $23k AUD now. 

Maybe we should wait until it breaks $50k AUD mid next year (or $100k)


----------



## Warr87

I am running a donchian system on it actually. it entered 2nd november. i'm surprised it hasn't broken the exit channel yet. it keeps clinging on. it'd be happy for it to continue going up haha. it's been a pretty steady uptrend on the 4HR chart so will be interesting to see how high it will go. the few dips on the chart look to be a shallow pullback and likely some people taking profits (what I have been really tempted to do but avoiding interfering with my bot).

my ETH bot, on the other hand, has won a few but mostly lost to false breakouts.


----------



## noirua

During the month of October Argo worked closely with Bitmain to arrive at a solution for the previously mentioned underperforming Bitmain T17 Antminers. As part of the solution agreed with Bitmain, some of these machines have now been retired and the company's overall petahash capacity has been reduced by 85 petahash. - Argo Blockchain LSE:ARB
For those mining Bitcoin and knowing it's about 3 years+ to the next rehash. It is worth investing otherwise you are compromised on an up to 4:1 basis.  My own small interest is via Argo Blockchain, a Bitcoin miner, and a small private outfit based in Greenland.


----------



## DB008

noirua said:


> For those mining Bitcoin and knowing it's about 3 years+ to the next rehash




I don't understand what this means, can you (or someone else) please explain this to me???


----------



## DB008

Some predictions, T/A

From what l have seen from a T/A perspective, Bob Lucas seems to be the only person who has been consistently correct.

Bob's T/A is spot on (IMO), and l follow him.

l'll put Bob's 4 year journey podcast up below, and l'll also put one up that he did recently, spot on. This is only my opinion and not financial advice.



*Bitcoin's 4 Year Cycle - Opportunity (Original Author) - 25 mins*

15 Jan 2019

​




*The Next 4-Year Cycle Started - 33 mins*

3 April 2019

​




*The Person in the Mirror - 36 mins*

22 August 2020

​


----------



## DB008

​


----------



## ghoool

do u have bitcoin now?


----------



## ghoool

Hi guys. My list includes only those exchanges that have worked on the market for at least six months, with a large supply of currencies and without complaints from visitors. In the reviews column, you can see the number of positive and negative opinions. As soon as more than three negative ones appear, the resource is instantly excluded from my top services where I can change usd to btc. I have these rules. What do you have?


----------



## DB008

BTC touching $17k (USD) overnight. Up over $24k AUD. And the big bull run hasn't even started yet...


----------



## DB008

​


----------



## noirua




----------



## grah33

DB008 said:


> Yeah, l'm not too sure about the ASX, but there are a few in the USA where you can get exposure to BTC.
> 
> Why not just buy BTC yourself on an exchange? It's a relatively easy process to get set up, probably easier than buying stocks.
> 
> What l love about BTC is that it's a 24/7/365 market.



I been using pepperstone (forex cfds).   they give you leverage too .  but i'll likely convert to real bitcoin later if it works out


----------



## grah33

Warr87 said:


> Unfortunately the CFDs i trade dont trade weekends. Can make for some interesting gaps on Monday haha.
> 
> Given you can buy futures for BTC, could make for an etf. I imagine the returns could be volatile.




there are some gaps over the weekend, but one contract is like 18k usd.  and if you buy a mini-lot that's 1.8k ...  it's not like euro and currencies, where the gaps can put you in serious trouble (debt).  unless you're using leverage and going for it.


----------



## grah33

my knowledge is very poor regarding BTC, but, what is the point of the other competitor currencies? like ether ripple etc ...?


----------



## Warr87

last weekend there were some big gaps compared to friday. went from a profit to a large loss. and its with cfds .... so they are obviously leveraged. fxcm does 1 lot = 0.1btc (or maybe its 0.01btc, i can't quiet remember). i dont over leverage and backtesting obviously takes into account gaps from weekend. its ETHUSD that has been hammering me right now. i actually stoped that EA today as I don't think its acting the way it should be. BTC EA is working fine though.


----------



## Warr87

grah33 said:


> my knowledge is very poor regarding BTC, but, what is the point of the other competitor currencies? like ether ripple etc ...?




i wouldn't place myself into an expert. i don't know a hell of a lot in some regards. i will likely trade ripple too. from my backtests its not as profitable for me with what i currently have and thats the only reason. BTC is more of a standard. also, other cryptos tend to move in step with BTC. not exactly. ETH wont always go up and breakout when BTC does. but obviouly a correlation. spreads would also be worse with ripple. the spread is kind big with BTC for me but its worth a lot more than ripple, so relatively speaking its not an issue (at least i dont think and happy to be corrected!)


----------



## DB008

*Bitcoin soars skyward as 'fund managers are panic-buying to keep up' with Paul Tudor Jones*​

BITCOIN's current sprint is fuelled by "huge fund managers panic-buying to keep up" with influential billionaire-turned bitcoin bull Paul Tudor Jones.​​Speaking to Express.co.uk bitcoin pioneer Max Keiser said: "Once Paul Tudor Jones fired the starting gun, huge fund managers are panic-buying to keep up. Now rumour has it that Paul Tudor Jones has upped his fund’s allocation from one percent tofive5 percent bitcoin."​​Mr Keiser added: "Every time a smart hedge fund guy puts aside their ideologies and dogma and takes a close look at bitcoin, and sees it for what it really is, a superior version of gold, they start buying."​​The news comes as Mexico's Ricardo Salinas Pliego has become, "big into bitcoin".​​Mr Piliego is a Mexican businessman, the founder, and chairman of Grupo Salinas, and the third richest person in Mexico.​​About Mr Pliego's recent adoption of bitcoin, Mr Keiser said: "His reason is that he agrees that all fiat money eventually goes to zero and Bitcoin is better than gold for protecting wealth."​​Even billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, who has been anti-bitcoin for years, has recently admitted he "might be missing something about bitcoin".​

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/c...st-surge-hedge-fund-managers-paul-tudor-jones


.​


----------



## DB008

*Investment bank with over $35 billion assets plans investing in bitcoin*​

Mariner Wealth Advisors disclosed it is partnering with Eaglebrook Advisors to give its clients access to Bitcoin.​​Mariner Wealth Advisors, a leading regulated investment advisory (RIA), with over $35 billion assets, disclosed it is partnering with Eaglebrook Advisors to give its clients access to Bitcoin.​​The crypto-focused investment firm Eaglebrook revealed Mariner Wealth was partnering with its BTC separately managed account (SMA) in allowing financial advisors to allocate Bitcoin on behalf of clients who want to include the king coin in their investment strategies.​​The report elaborated more on their new synergy, “We are excited to offer this new solution to clients of Mariner Wealth Advisors, where bitcoin fits into their overall wealth plan,” said Marty Bicknell, CEO and president of Mariner Wealth Advisors. “Our desire to find new solutions is always driven by client need and we are looking forward to working with Eaglebrook on this new endeavor.”​​Demand for bitcoin from financial advisors and their clients has accelerated due to current trends, including the growth in investment demand from millennials and institutional investors, bitcoin’s potential as an inflation hedge in response to monetary stimulus and the asymmetric upside of the investment.​​“We are thrilled to be working with Mariner Wealth Advisors,” said Christopher King, CEO of Eaglebrook Advisors. “Our investment solution, designed to meet the unique needs of firms such as Mariner Wealth Advisors, makes it easy for their advisors to allocate to bitcoin. We expect cryptocurrency adoption to continue and the market to mature, driving even greater demand.”​

https://nairametrics.com/2020/11/19...35-billion-assets-plans-investing-in-bitcoin/



.​


----------



## grah33

Warr87 said:


> last weekend there were some big gaps compared to friday. went from a profit to a large loss. and its with cfds .... so they are obviously leveraged. fxcm does 1 lot = 0.1btc (or maybe its 0.01btc, i can't quiet remember). i dont over leverage and backtesting obviously takes into account gaps from weekend. its ETHUSD that has been hammering me right now. i actually stoped that EA today as I don't think its acting the way it should be. BTC EA is working fine though.



well   yeah sure, you lose profits  e.g. for 1 BTC, not long ago, that's like 16k to 15k.  it's tolerable. but  don't short it  ... .  
main thing is you're not getting a nasty debt.  

with currency 1 lot is 100k UNITS of whatever ... vs 1 BTC (one lot).


----------



## Warr87

grah33 said:


> well   yeah sure, you lose profits  e.g. for 1 BTC, not long ago, that's like 16k to 15k.  it's tolerable. but  don't short it  ... .
> main thing is you're not getting a nasty debt.
> 
> with currency 1 lot is 100k UNITS of whatever ... vs 1 BTC (one lot).




i'm long only. but i have no issue with shorting.


----------



## Value Collector

grah33 said:


> my knowledge is very poor regarding BTC, but, what is the point of the other competitor currencies? like ether ripple etc ...?




it’s a bit like when the tulip boom was happening, some people tried to create other markets for other flowers, hoping to get rich off convincing others that daffodils were the next to boom, and would be just as big as tulips one day.


----------



## noirua

*$100k bitcoin next year: why 2021 will shatter all records - OKCoin CEO*

20 November 2020
Bitcoin is becoming 'digital gold' and there is a case to be made for the recent price surge to continue to $100,000 by 2021, says Hong Fang, CEO of OKCoin, one of the largest cyrpto exchanges in the world.
Fang argues that should bitcoin catch up to even 25% of gold's global market capitalization of $9 trillion, that figure would amount to a price range for BTC of $80,000 to $100,000.


----------



## grah33

noirua said:


> *$100k bitcoin next year: why 2021 will shatter all records - OKCoin CEO*
> 
> 20 November 2020
> Bitcoin is becoming 'digital gold' and there is a case to be made for the recent price surge to continue to $100,000 by 2021, says Hong Fang, CEO of OKCoin, one of the largest cyrpto exchanges in the world.
> Fang argues that should bitcoin catch up to even 25% of gold's global market capitalization of $9 trillion, that figure would amount to a price range for BTC of $80,000 to $100,000.




sounds enticing


----------



## grah33

Value Collector said:


> it’s a bit like when the tulip boom was happening, some people tried to create other markets for other flowers, hoping to get rich off convincing others that daffodils were the next to boom, and would be just as big as tulips one day.



maybe there is a point to those other crypto currencies? 

 maybe bitcoin will fit in with a global order


----------



## Value Collector

grah33 said:


> maybe there is a point to those other crypto currencies?
> 
> maybe bitcoin will fit in with a global order



Or maybe there isn’t.


----------



## wayneL

Yeah, long vol, bitcoin... It's all bull****.

With bitcoin uptake is key.

And it certainly seems to be uptaken by key players


----------



## Value Collector

wayneL said:


> Yeah, long vol, bitcoin... It's all bull****.
> 
> With bitcoin uptake is key.
> 
> And it certainly seems to be uptaken by key players




I just don’t get bit coin I guess.

As far as I can see it’s just somethingthat has no real value or use outside people buying it hoping that they can sell it later for more.

I mean very few people actually use Bitcoin for purchasing goods, so it’s not a real currency.

It’s not like real commodity that has real underlying uses out side of being used to store value.

and it’s not like a company Share that represents ownership in a real business producing products or services that can be sold.

As I said maybe I just don’t get it, but I can’t see where bit coin gets it’s underlying value outside of being used as a gambling ticket.


----------



## wayneL

Value Collector said:


> I just don’t get bit coin I guess.
> 
> As far as I can see it’s just somethingthat has no real value or use outside people buying it hoping that they can sell it later for more.
> 
> I mean very few people actually use Bitcoin for purchasing goods, so it’s not a real currency.
> 
> It’s not like real commodity that has real underlying uses out side of being used to store value.
> 
> and it’s not like a company Share that represents ownership in a real business producing products or services that can be sold.
> 
> As I said maybe I just don’t get it, but I can’t see where bit coin gets it’s underlying value outside of being used as a gambling ticket.



Just like anything, by agreement of the participants.

I regularly have discussions with people who don't see the value in it.

Why are Nicola shares worth what they are, they don't even have a product, same with all of these companies that have no actual tangible intrinsic value at all, just some idea, yep are trading at seemmingly ridiculous values.

I mean, what is the underlying value of a zucchini? It grows all by itself and once harvested only lasts a couple of weeks before it's no longer useful.


----------



## Value Collector

wayneL said:


> Why are Nicola shares worth what they are, they don't even have a product, same with all of these companies that have no actual tangible intrinsic value at all, just some idea, yep are trading at seemmingly ridiculous values.
> 
> I mean, what is the underlying value of a zucchini? It grows all by itself and once harvested only lasts a couple of weeks before it's no longer useful.




The ultimate value of a Zucchini is obviously derived from its ability to sustain human life by providing calories, vitamins and minerals, and from the enjoyment some people find in its taste, and it’s market price will be determined by supply and demand, and when that real value decays so will it’s market price, so it’s all linked to real world value.

The demand side of zucchini price is driven by its real world values that I mentioned, if it did t have those real world values I would be questioning why people are buying them hoping others would pay more too.

———

As for Nicola or any other stock, their value will ultimately be based on what products and services they produce and what profits they make.

In the mean time their stock price is based on hope that these products and services eventually materialise, if they don’t their stock price will eventually collapse.

But where does Bitcoin fit in?

we can’t eat it like a zucchini, if doesn’t represent ownership in a factory or factory idea such as Nicola, it’s not even a commodity like gold that has a real world use, and its not

My question remains,  Where does Bitcoin derive its value?

I am not trolling here, this is a genuine question, I simply don’t understand it, if people had asked me 5 years ago my FMG stock was valuable, I could explain that in simple terms.

So far no matter where I look I can’t see anyone that can explain why Bitcoin has value.


----------



## againsthegrain

Not sure if its off the back of btc but ripple is breaking out


----------



## noirua

November 19 2020

1 year chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=stat...=0&width=344&height=199&min_pre=0&min_after=0


----------



## noirua

Stretched thin? Wrapped Bitcoin assets may encourage supply crisis
					

WBTC, Ethereum's most popular wrapped Bitcoin, isn't the only protocol locking up BTC on smart contract chains, and it might mean trouble for institutions which want to buy




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## wayneL

Value Collector said:


> The ultimate value of a Zucchini is obviously derived from its ability to sustain human life by providing calories, vitamins and minerals, and from the enjoyment some people find in its taste, and it’s market price will be determined by supply and demand, and when that real value decays so will it’s market price, so it’s all linked to real world value.
> 
> The demand side of zucchini price is driven by its real world values that I mentioned, if it did t have those real world values I would be questioning why people are buying them hoping others would pay more too.
> 
> ———
> 
> As for Nicola or any other stock, their value will ultimately be based on what products and services they produce and what profits they make.
> 
> In the mean time their stock price is based on hope that these products and services eventually materialise, if they don’t their stock price will eventually collapse.
> 
> But where does Bitcoin fit in?
> 
> we can’t eat it like a zucchini, if doesn’t represent ownership in a factory or factory idea such as Nicola, it’s not even a commodity like gold that has a real world use, and its not
> 
> My question remains,  Where does Bitcoin derive its value?
> 
> I am not trolling here, this is a genuine question, I simply don’t understand it, if people had asked me 5 years ago my FMG stock was valuable, I could explain that in simple terms.
> 
> So far no matter where I look I can’t see anyone that can explain why Bitcoin has value.



To be honest, the actual intrinsic value of bitcoin in something that I have also struggled with, but as I have analysed how Bitcoin may have value and then and then how other instruments may have value it is become a little bit more clearer for me.

There's are actually dozens of YouTube videos on this topic but I always come back to Raoul Pal.... I just like the way he likes things out.


----------



## Value Collector

wayneL said:


> To be honest, the actual intrinsic value of bitcoin in something that I have also struggled with, but as I have analysed how Bitcoin may have value and then and then how other instruments may have value it is become a little bit more clearer for me.
> 
> There's are actually dozens of YouTube videos on this topic but I always come back to Raoul Pal.... I just like the way he likes things out.





That guy is actually quite bearish on Bit coin if you listen to what he says around the 34min mark, saying its like Cisco during the internet bubble.

Another guy in the video compares it to My space, and says it could eventually be in the trash, which given its lack of real value I would have to agree is possibility.

It seems to me it's only real value it could ever have is if it became a real currency, but I can't see that happening, it is just far to volatile, I mean who would want to base a home loan in Bit coins, and find that that principle of their loan has grown due to bitcoin rising, or find that they can't afford the groceries because bitcoin is down 20% since payday, and now they can't afford the bill at the check out.

Currencies - have to be stable to be functional as currency, they can move slowly such as the reserve banks 2% inflation figure, but they can't fluctuate wildly as Bitcoin does.

Commodities - have to have a use outside of their use as a store of value, other wise they will fluctuate or disappear with fashion trends such as basketball cards or beanie babies with no real world value.

Equity- securities need to have some sort of real world value behind the or one day they will have their value disappear when people realise they are holding an empty sack.

-----------

In short I feel it could be fun to speculate on bitcoin, but I think its unwise to be thinking its eventual going to become what it's not and can't be.


----------



## wayneL

Value Collector said:


> In short I feel it could be fun to speculate on bitcoin, but I think its unwise to be thinking its eventual going to become what it's not and can't be.



Which is?


----------



## wayneL

Meanwhile, Pal describes himself currently as being "irresponsibly" long, Paul Tudor Jones has picked up some for his portfolio and several large companies such as stripe and PayPal have included in as part of their "cash” reserves.

For The longest time gold was described as a pet rock too, by none other than Warren buffett.

So, where to now?


----------



## Value Collector

wayneL said:


> Which is?



An actual currency.


----------



## Value Hunter

Value Collector I have to disagree with your analysis somewhat. I think Bitcoin can (its not certain but there is a reasonable chance) eventually become a viable major currency. Why is that you may ask? Simply, because it removes the intermediary in the process (although some would argue the crypto exchanges effectively are the bitcoin intermediaries) and thus reduces frictional costs and counter-party risks. Currently if you want to send fiat currency overseas through either a bank wire transfer or western union you will pay hefty fees (or take a hit on the exchange rate). The reduction of counter-party risk can also be a huge benefit especially during a financial crises.

Sending Bitcoin can be done in a fraction of the time and for a fraction of the cost. Not to mention it has proven it has real world applications in sanctioned countries like Iran or Venezuela where access to the SWIFT system, etc is somewhat restricted.

As for the volatility of bitcoin it has gone down over time and will continue to decrease further in the future as it becomes more liquid and more mas adopted.

Once Bitcoin becomes a viable major currency the groundwork is then set for it to also become a true store of value because you then have a highly functional currency with limited supply (maximum 21 million). The value/ulitility that you are storing is its utility as a currency.


----------



## Value Collector

Value Hunter said:


> Value Collector I have to disagree with your analysis somewhat. I think Bitcoin can (its not certain but there is a reasonable chance) eventually become a viable major currency. Why is that you may ask? Simply, because it removes the intermediary in the process (although some would argue the crypto exchanges effectively are the bitcoin intermediaries) and thus reduces frictional costs and counter-party risks. Currently if you want to send fiat currency overseas through either a bank wire transfer or western union you will pay hefty fees (or take a hit on the exchange rate). The reduction of counter-party risk can also be a huge benefit especially during a financial crises.
> 
> Sending Bitcoin can be done in a fraction of the time and for a fraction of the cost. Not to mention it has proven it has real world applications in sanctioned countries like Iran or Venezuela where access to the SWIFT system, etc is somewhat restricted.
> 
> As for the volatility of bitcoin it has gone down over time and will continue to decrease further in the future as it becomes more liquid and more mas adopted.
> 
> Once Bitcoin becomes a viable major currency the groundwork is then set for it to also become a true store of value because you then have a highly functional currency with limited supply (maximum 21 million). The value/ulitility that you are storing is its utility as a currency.



Would you take out a home loan for $x amount of Bitcoin?

Would you sign an employment contract and promise to pay staff $x amount of bit coin per week for the next 2 years?

I can’t see it ever being stable enough for that, even gold isn’t stable enough for that.


----------



## matty77

Bitcoin is a store of value and I believe that's why it will continue to climb, I just dont believe bitcoin has the anonymity, ease of use and/or technology to become an everyday currency, which when you say 'viable major currency" is what you are alluding to. Its just not going to happen as there are other Cryptos that are far better suited to be used as every day currency that are easier to use, faster, better technology. I think a stable coin pegged to the USD or similar will become the "viable major currency".

You need to see bitcoin as being the gold storage of crypto currency already, saying for it to become a value of storage it must first become a viable major currency is again incorrect, there are many instances in the past (like gold) where the value will start to exceed the use for everyday currency and people would rather hold and store then use. Bitcoin is already there, being pushed on by a market that most people dont understand and cant get into that is manipulated constantly.

I would go as far to say that the number of bitcoin transactions will not increase massively but probably slow - in Q4 2017 bitcoin had approx 320k transactions, hit a top of 380k in Q1 2019, and Q3 2020 hit 350k so while the price is up the transactions are not. Why? Because people are buying and holding, nobody will be wanting to spend bitcoin on everyday things if they think it could possible double, triple or whatever in the next few years - it just doesnt make sense to me.

Ever heard the story of the first pizza that was bought with 10,000 bitcoin? yup... thats why bitcoin will never become a transactional everyday crypto, people will trade it to make money or hold it to make money they will not use it to buy things.

Well thats what I think anyway.


----------



## Value Collector

matty77 said:


> Bitcoin is a store of value and I believe that's why it will continue to climb




But my question is, where is this “Value” derived?

what is stopping Bitcoin going to zero?

I mean humans have used all sorts of things as stores of value, even sea shells, glass beads, etc.

but unless something has a real world value in use, there is nothing stopping it going to zero, because there is no mechanism that kicks in to support the price once fashions change.


----------



## moXJO

I agree with VC to a point.

 Its used a bit for certain transactions and shifting money around.  Can't see it really moving mainstream. But given it isn't a centrally controlled currency, it will be valued to some degree by the fanatics.

I suppose the moment tech catches up to crack the security measures it then becomes worthless.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> .  Can't see it really moving mainstream. But given it isn't a centrally controlled currency, it will be valued to some degree by the fanatics.
> .




To me that means it will forever be volatile and never be a usable currency, which means it's more of a commodity and its a commodity with no underlying intrinsic value that can support price and prevent it becoming obsolete.

------
I am not saying you guys can't trade it for profit in the short term, I am just trying to understand whether it holds any longterm value or use beyond this trading activity, or will it eventually become defunct like sea shells, glass beads, carved sticks and the countless other commodity type financial assets humans have experimented with over the years.


----------



## wayneL

I go along with @matty77 comments above, more of a store of value than a currency with widespread use for exactly the reasons stated.

But I also agree with him about there being other solutions adopted for that purpose. I'm by no means an expert, a complete novice in fact, but I am seeing a lot of efforts and development in the so-called DEFI space, Etherium (as opposed to Ether) etc.

As a point of interest I do have one client that pays me in BTC and two who pay me in gold via Goldpass. and I was reading somewhere where some Canadian Windsor calories are allowing people to pay their rates in cryptocurrency.

The key here as I've stated before is uptake and uptake is increasing.


----------



## matty77

Value Collector said:


> But my question is, where is this “Value” derived?
> 
> what is stopping Bitcoin going to zero?
> 
> I mean humans have used all sorts of things as stores of value, even sea shells, glass beads, etc.
> 
> but unless something has a real world value in use, there is nothing stopping it going to zero, because there is no mechanism that kicks in to support the price once fashions change.




You can kind of work out an actual real world value of BTC and that is the cost to mine one bitcoin, that could be considered the actual real world value right now. This would be between 12,000 to 18,000 USD per coin depending on how you are mining it, electricity charges etc. This is just one of the things people may use to put a so called value on bitcoin. Obviously this value will increase as bitcoins become harder to mine.

What is stopping bitcoin going to zero? nothing.
What is stopping gold going to zero? nothing.

Just because it can go to zero doesn't mean it will, or that its worthless.

The biggest risk to bitcoin that I see is, Government intervention and censorship/banning (although this may also push prices up)

Another risk is quantum computing and being able to derive private keys - but this may only affect around 25% of bitcoin, and I would imagine if this becomes a real risk people will be able to move bitcoin out of p2k wallets anyway, so again its a risk but you can mitigate it. Obviously as technology advances things change though.

Bitcoin is open to a fair bit of market manipulation at the moment, you can see that in 2017 when prices went through the roof but I think over time as the markets matures the prices will stabilize, (Crypto is still an early new market!) possible positives for Bitcoin could be the destabilization of the USD going forward as China continues to push its own agenda and people look to move money where they have total control, and quick control as well.

I dont think Bitcoin will be the end game for Crypto, but I think it will be around for the next 10-15 years, and will probably be a good investment to those that are happy to take a risk. / Not financial advice DYOR


----------



## Value Collector

matty77 said:


> You can kind of work out an actual real world value of BTC and that is the cost to mine one bitcoin, that could be considered the actual real world value right now. This would be between 12,000 to 18,000 USD per coin depending on how you are mining it, electricity charges etc. This is just one of the things people may use to put a so called value on bitcoin. Obviously this value will increase as bitcoins become harder to mine.
> 
> What is stopping bitcoin going to zero? nothing.
> What is stopping gold going to zero? nothing.
> 
> Just because it can go to zero doesn't mean it will, or that its worthless.
> 
> The biggest risk to bitcoin that I see is, Government intervention and censorship/banning (although this may also push prices up)
> 
> Another risk is quantum computing and being able to derive private keys - but this may only affect around 25% of bitcoin, and I would imagine if this becomes a real risk people will be able to move bitcoin out of p2k wallets anyway, so again its a risk but you can mitigate it. Obviously as technology advances things change though.
> 
> Bitcoin is open to a fair bit of market manipulation at the moment, you can see that in 2017 when prices went through the roof but I think over time as the markets matures the prices will stabilize, (Crypto is still an early new market!) possible positives for Bitcoin could be the destabilization of the USD going forward as China continues to push its own agenda and people look to move money where they have total control, and quick control as well.
> 
> I dont think Bitcoin will be the end game for Crypto, but I think it will be around for the next 10-15 years, and will probably be a good investment to those that are happy to take a risk. / Not financial advice DYOR




value and cost are very different things, the cost of mining Bitcoin won’t provide any support to its market priceif the market simply loses interest in Bitcoin, and decided to begin trading something else.

Gold wouldn’t go to zero because it has real world applications, as a minimum of would maintain at least the value of copper, because it is more conductive than copper, so at a certain price point makers of cable would switch to using gold if the gold price dropped below copper, and there are many other mechanisms that would kick in before it even reached copper price.

bit coin however isn’t real, it has no other use beyond its ability to act as a financial trading thing, there is nothing to support its price if traders lose interest in it and move on.


----------



## moXJO

It all comes down to confidence in its value and base interest I suppose. When investors don't have confidence prices drop. Everything also has an expiration when the tech catches up. Gold and off world mining would probably smash the price eventually. Long way before the tech catches up. 

 Coins, cars, art, stamps, collectables all go through fazes. Antiques use to be a thing but I'm sure they got smashed. So can be generational as well as base interest.

There are those that are pushing it in the tech community so that's an upside to it. 

Similar to regular central bank really. That plastic $100 note is only worth something while the base is invested. Confidence gets shaken and it gets revalued.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> Similar to regular central bank really. That plastic $100 note is only worth something while the base is invested. Confidence gets shaken and it gets revalued.




See, but that plastic $100 note has use as an actual currency, it is specifically managed not to be volatile, it is managed in a way that it will lose about 2% of its value a year, but that gives it enough stability to be useful as a currency.

people feel confident enough in that $100 notes stability to sign long term leases, loans, employment contracts etc etc based on it, no one is going to sign a long term lease in a fixed amount of Bitcoin, it could bankrupt either side of the transaction depending on which way it swings

————
but yes currencies can go to zero, and most lose value steadily, but they are useful for trading goods and services, how ever as I said Bit coin doesn’t have that functionality.

people that say unmanaged “currencies” are better than managed ones need their head read.

I wouldn’t suggest “Storing Value” in currency for long, excess cash should be invested into real assets that hold their value and produce income.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin price dives back under $16,900 as whale deposits spike again
					

Bitcoin drops below $16,900 as whale deposits spike again




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## grah33

if i saw the chart correctly, was it nov 17th?  that a big portion of volume occurred ...


----------



## noirua

Someone just moved $5M in BTC from the 2016 Bitfinex hack
					

Someone from the 2016 Bitfinex hack is moving their stolen Bitcoin once again.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## DB008

Value Collector said:


> Would you take out a home loan for $x amount of Bitcoin?




https://bitcoin-realestate.com/

And 3 years ago...
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/13/london-mansion-on-sale-bitcoin.html#:~:text=An%20%C2%A318%20million%20(%24,4%2C000%20bitcoin%20at%20Friday's%20price.




Value Collector said:


> Would you sign an employment contract and promise to pay staff $x amount of bit coin per week for the next 2 years?




Some people are already paid part cash, part crypto. It's happening now


This is from 2014...

​


----------



## Value Collector

DB008 said:


> https://bitcoin-realestate.com/
> 
> And 3 years ago...
> https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/13/london-mansion-on-sale-bitcoin.html#:~:text=An%20%C2%A318%20million%20(%24,4%2C000%20bitcoin%20at%20Friday's%20price.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Some people are already paid part cash, part crypto. It's happening now
> 
> 
> This is from 2014...
> 
> ​





You are missing the point completely.

I did not ask would you buy a property using Bitcoin, I asked would you take out a home loan denominated in Bitcoin.

For example, would you be willing to buy a house that’s worth $690,000 or about 30 Bitcoins and pay for it with a loan where you promise to pay back 1 Bitcoin a year for 30 years?

it would be an interest free loan, however if in 2 years time Bitcoins are worth $200,000 you are going to be bankrupted and Bitcoin drops to $200 the lender will be bankrupt.

my point is that it far to volatile to be used in any of the normal long term contracts we regular do in society, hence why it’s no a real currency.

think about if you signed up for a Bitcoin Home loan when Bitcoin was worth $500 and you promised to payback 1 Bitcoin a week for 30 years,.... good luck making the payments.



> Some people are already paid part cash, part crypto. It's happening now




You can bet that each week they are paid based on Dollars that are coverted each week into crypto, their wage is NOT based on fixed amount of crypto per hour.

think about it, would you sign up to pay an employment contract for 5 years paying a guaranteed 5 Bitcoin a year, not knowing how much that 5 Bitcoin will be worth in 6 months???

either party to that employment contract could be screwed depending on where Bitcoin price goes.


----------



## DB008

Well, you have all the answers. Good luck.


----------



## moXJO

Some great trading on some of these coins at the moment.

Hope the interest keeps up. It was a long wait till we saw action again.


----------



## kenny

Value Collector said:


> You are missing the point completely.
> 
> I did not ask would you buy a property using Bitcoin, I asked would you take out a home loan denominated in Bitcoin.
> 
> For example, would you be willing to buy a house that’s worth $690,000 or about 30 Bitcoins and pay for it with a loan where you promise to pay back 1 Bitcoin a year for 30 years?
> 
> it would be an interest free loan, however if in 2 years time Bitcoins are worth $200,000 you are going to be bankrupted and Bitcoin drops to $200 the lender will be bankrupt.
> 
> my point is that it far to volatile to be used in any of the normal long term contracts we regular do in society, hence why it’s no a real currency.
> 
> think about if you signed up for a Bitcoin Home loan when Bitcoin was worth $500 and you promised to payback 1 Bitcoin a week for 30 years,.... good luck making the payments.




Isn't this the same risk incurred when you choose to take out financing denominated in another currency? For instance, if I was in Venezuela and chose to take out a home loan in USD but paying in Bolivars; chances are, I'd be in a similar predicament in a few years. Both are considered real currencies.


----------



## matty77

ATH..

well done BTC.

Im even in positive territory on some of my terrible ALTs nowdays.. amazing.


----------



## Value Collector

kenny said:


> Isn't this the same risk incurred when you choose to take out financing denominated in another currency? For instance, if I was in Venezuela and chose to take out a home loan in USD but paying in Bolivars; chances are, I'd be in a similar predicament in a few years. Both are considered real currencies.




The difference is that none of the actual currencies you mention have the volatility of bitcoin and the other cryptos, once a currency gets mismanaged and becomes volatile it begins to lose its functionality as a currency, and will generally be replaced or revalued.

Even when gold was used to back currency they had to set legal price limits to gold to try and take out the volatility.

But also the main difference is the acceptance of the currency, in their home markets each currency has universal acceptance, eg you get paid in that currency, you shop in that currency, you sign leases and loans in that currency, Bitcoin is no where near close to that acceptance so it is definitely not a real currency, and probably will never be because of that uncontrollable volatility, The same reason we had to get rid of the gold standard is the same reason that bitcoin won't be a currency.

If there is ever a real crypto currency, it will be one that has mechanisms where it can be controlled by the like of the federal reserve or some other central bank.


----------



## So_Cynical

Value Collector said:


> my point is that it far to volatile to be used in any of the normal long term contracts we regular do in society, hence why it’s no a real currency.



As a simple unit of exchange BTC is a complete failure, this is one of the things that turned me off BTC back in the day - just to volatile to be a genuine unit of exchange, and that volatility is partly driven by the cost of verifying transactions, mining is crazy expensive.


----------



## DB008

Lightning on BTC makes BTC free to use for transactions and pretty much instant. So you can buy a cup of coffee and the fees don't cost more than the coffee.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin, gold to benefit as Peter Schiff predicts ‘worst year ever’ for US dollar
					

Multiple voices forecast a weaker dollar in the long term, which likely spells future gains for Bitcoin and gold.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## DB008

Peter Schiff is a Gold bug and has been very negative towards Bitcoin over the years


----------



## moXJO

So_Cynical said:


> As a simple unit of exchange BTC is a complete failure, this is one of the things that turned me off BTC back in the day - just to volatile to be a genuine unit of exchange, and that volatility is partly driven by the cost of verifying transactions, mining is crazy expensive.



You were on it pretty early from memory. Did you get on board?


----------



## wayneL

Value Collector said:


> You are missing the point completely.
> 
> I did not ask would you buy a property using Bitcoin, I asked would you take out a home loan denominated in Bitcoin.
> 
> For example, would you be willing to buy a house that’s worth $690,000 or about 30 Bitcoins and pay for it with a loan where you promise to pay back 1 Bitcoin a year for 30 years?
> 
> it would be an interest free loan, however if in 2 years time Bitcoins are worth $200,000 you are going to be bankrupted and Bitcoin drops to $200 the lender will be bankrupt.
> 
> my point is that it far to volatile to be used in any of the normal long term contracts we regular do in society, hence why it’s no a real currency.
> 
> think about if you signed up for a Bitcoin Home loan when Bitcoin was worth $500 and you promised to payback 1 Bitcoin a week for 30 years,.... good luck making the payments.
> 
> 
> 
> You can bet that each week they are paid based on Dollars that are coverted each week into crypto, their wage is NOT based on fixed amount of crypto per hour.
> 
> think about it, would you sign up to pay an employment contract for 5 years paying a guaranteed 5 Bitcoin a year, not knowing how much that 5 Bitcoin will be worth in 6 months???
> 
> either party to that employment contract could be screwed depending on where Bitcoin price goes.





Value Collector said:


> You are missing the point completely.
> 
> I did not ask would you buy a property using Bitcoin, I asked would you take out a home loan denominated in Bitcoin.
> 
> For example, would you be willing to buy a house that’s worth $690,000 or about 30 Bitcoins and pay for it with a loan where you promise to pay back 1 Bitcoin a year for 30 years?
> 
> it would be an interest free loan, however if in 2 years time Bitcoins are worth $200,000 you are going to be bankrupted and Bitcoin drops to $200 the lender will be bankrupt.
> 
> my point is that it far to volatile to be used in any of the normal long term contracts we regular do in society, hence why it’s no a real currency.
> 
> think about if you signed up for a Bitcoin Home loan when Bitcoin was worth $500 and you promised to payback 1 Bitcoin a week for 30 years,.... good luck making the payments.
> 
> 
> 
> You can bet that each week they are paid based on Dollars that are coverted each week into crypto, their wage is NOT based on fixed amount of crypto per hour.
> 
> think about it, would you sign up to pay an employment contract for 5 years paying a guaranteed 5 Bitcoin a year, not knowing how much that 5 Bitcoin will be worth in 6 months???
> 
> either party to that employment contract could be screwed depending on where Bitcoin price goes.



The only sense in borrowing money and paying interest is if it is denominated in a currency being progressively debased for whatever reason... "Inflating away the debt" sorry to speak.

Therefore if you would take out a mortgage in cryptocurrency you a structure it in such a way that that would happen if you had any brains.

you would make more sense to take out a mortgage in fiat and be paid and something like Bitcoin. Then you get the double effect of your debt inflating away and your means of payment massively inflating in value.

The idea of Bitcoin has never been to replace fiat but to outsmart it.

Same principle with gold, borrow in fiat get paid in gold if you can organise things in that way.


----------



## Value Collector

wayneL said:


> The only sense in borrowing money and paying interest is if it is denominated in a currency being progressively debased for whatever reason... "Inflating away the debt" sorry to speak.
> 
> Therefore if you would take out a mortgage in cryptocurrency you a structure it in such a way that that would happen if you had any brains.
> 
> you would make more sense to take out a mortgage in fiat and be paid and something like Bitcoin. Then you get the double effect of your debt inflating away and your means of payment massively inflating in value.
> 
> The idea of Bitcoin has never been to replace fiat but to outsmart it.
> 
> Same principle with gold, borrow in fiat get paid in gold if you can organise things in that way.



Mortgages make sense in any stable currency, even if the currency was appreciating by 2% a year it would still make sense in a lot of situations to take on debt, the key is stability but you wouldn’t even want to have a 30 day credit card debt denominated in something as unstable as Bitcoin.

you can get paid in gold if you like or bear skins or diamonds, but none of them are currencies they are commodities, and commodities do predate currencies as units of exchange, but we moved away from barter for very good reasons


----------



## wayneL

Value Collector said:


> Mortgages make sense in any stable currency, even if the currency was appreciating by 2% a year it would still make sense in a lot of situations to take on debt, the key is stability but you wouldn’t even want to have a 30 day credit card debt denominated in something as unstable as Bitcoin.
> 
> you can get paid in gold if you like or bear skins or diamonds, but none of them are currencies they are commodities, and commodities do predate currencies as units of exchange, but we moved away from barter for very good reasons



Which are?


----------



## Value Collector

wayneL said:


> Which are?




which are what? Are you asking what situations it would make sense to take on debt in an appreciating currency?

You would simply just think of the 2% appreciation in the currency as being equivalent to interest, so as long as the interest rate on the loan is still low enough to when you add the 2% appreciation on then it makes sense.

think of it like this in a world with 2% inflation, a 5% loan interest rate is really a 3% interest rate.

So in a world with 2% deflation, the appreciating currency means a 1% interest rate is really a 3% interest rate.

so as long as the interest rate you pay combined with the appreciation rate is still lower than the return on investment you will make with the funds, taking out the loan still makes sense.

As I said what is important is the stability, over time, not whether it is deflation or inflation, either one is ok as long as it’s maintained in predictable rates, and doesn’t wildly fluctuate daily, weekly or yearly by amounts that could bankrupt you.

Or,

were you asking what were the reasons we moved away from bartering? I thought they were self evident, not only is barter cumbersome, but the underlying commodities are again not stable enough, take out a mortgage denominated in wheat or Iron ore faces the same risks I mentioned as Bitcoin, but at least they are real assets and their price will probably never drop to zero out side of any temporary short term contracting anomaly.


----------



## kenny

re BTC volatility; tl;dr it's getting closer to currency pairs over time.





__





						Bitcoin Volatility vs Other Assets : Woobull Charts
					






					charts.woobull.com
				












						Volatility and Correlation: Bitcoin vs Gold, Fiat, and Equity Markets
					

An analysis of the evolution of historical volatility and cross-asset correlations in 2020




					blog.kaiko.com
				




@Value Collector re currency comments; I agree at this point BTC behaves more like a commodity than a currency and to finance with it would be similar to bartering with the same complications.

I wonder how long before hedging facilities appear to manage the volatility of cryptocurrencies?


----------



## noirua

Analysts say surging Bitcoin whale inflows heighten chance of BTC correction
					

Bitcoin whale inflows are increasing as the price of BTC struggles to break past $19,500.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## wayneL

Value Collector said:


> which are what? Are you asking what situations it would make sense to take on debt in an appreciating currency?
> 
> You would simply just think of the 2% appreciation in the currency as being equivalent to interest, so as long as the interest rate on the loan is still low enough to when you add the 2% appreciation on then it makes sense.
> 
> think of it like this in a world with 2% inflation, a 5% loan interest rate is really a 3% interest rate.
> 
> So in a world with 2% deflation, the appreciating currency means a 1% interest rate is really a 3% interest rate.
> 
> so as long as the interest rate you pay combined with the appreciation rate is still lower than the return on investment you will make with the funds, taking out the loan still makes sense.
> 
> As I said what is important is the stability, over time, not whether it is deflation or inflation, either one is ok as long as it’s maintained in predictable rates, and doesn’t wildly fluctuate daily, weekly or yearly by amounts that could bankrupt you.
> 
> Or,
> 
> were you asking what were the reasons we moved away from bartering? I thought they were self evident, not only is barter cumbersome, but the underlying commodities are again not stable enough, take out a mortgage denominated in wheat or Iron ore faces the same risks I mentioned as Bitcoin, but at least they are real assets and their price will probably never drop to zero out side of any temporary short term contracting anomaly.



I'm sorry you didn't understand the question I asked you, possibly my fault it was not very explicit.

I went by the expanding but you could do yourself a favour and study up on the history money, our current reserve currency, with particular attention to the difference between gold backing and fiat of such, when things changed, and why.

I would hope for an epiphany for you, but that's really up to you.

Good luck.


----------



## Value Collector

wayneL said:


> I went by the expanding but you could do yourself a favour and study up on the history money, our current reserve currency, with particular attention to the difference between gold backing and fiat of such, when things changed, and why.




I have done quite a bit of reading on the topic, is there any points in particular you don’t think I understand that you feel would alter my opinion on Bitcoin?

I can’t think of anything in the history of currencies that would disprove my point that the functionality of a currency is reduced the more volatile it becomes, that’s the whole reason central banks put so much focus on managing their currencies, and is one of the reasons why they detached its value from gold.


----------



## DB008

Value Collector said:


> I have done quite a bit of reading on the topic, is there any points in particular you don’t think I understand that you feel would alter my opinion on Bitcoin?




What do you think of the bitcoin whitepaper?

https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf​


----------



## DB008

Interesting...





.​


----------



## DB008

Taproot is coming to Bitcoin soon

Taproot is a proposed Bitcoin protocol upgrade that can be deployed as a forward-compatible soft fork. By combining the Schnorr signature scheme with MAST (Merklized Abstract Syntax Trees) and a new scripting language called Tapscript, Taproot will expand Bitcoin’s smart contract flexibility, while offering more privacy by letting users mask complex smart contracts as a regular bitcoin transaction.


https://taprootactivation.com/

https://github.com/taprootactivation/Taproot-Activation​


----------



## noirua

Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ETH, XMR, VET, AAVE
					

Select altcoins are moving higher as Bitcoin price gains strength and consolidates within a bull pennant.




					cointelegraph.com
				




Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has been hovering near the $19,000 level for the past few days. Whenever the price consolidates near the all-time high, it is an indication of strength.


----------



## SyBoo

Is the rise in the Bitcoin price related to lower mining energy costs?
And If the BTC mining energy costs go up again will the price of BTC fall?


----------



## wayneL

SyBoo said:


> Is the rise in the Bitcoin price related to lower mining energy costs?
> And If the BTC mining energy costs go up again will the price of BTC fall?



Wait.... I thought it woulda been the other way round... Proof of work etc

But I really have no idea and still trying to grasp that, and the stock to flow concept, and whether it's valid or not.


----------



## qldfrog

SyBoo said:


> Is the rise in the Bitcoin price related to lower mining energy costs?
> And If te BTC mining energy costs go up again will the price of BTC fall?



that is an interesting point of view but if energy cost goes up and BTC mining becomes more expensive, it reduces the production so BTC becomes  rarer and so should be more expensive;
Doesn't that make BTC POO independent?


----------



## frugal.rock

Am not fully up to date with costs, but I don't see how energy costs would have come down.

With the recent halving (bitcoin mining rates halve every 4 ? years), the costs have gone up, by theoretically double.

Invariably, the price of bitcoin fluctuates around the cost of mining, where energy is paid tor, generally at Western country rates.

Last I checked, bitcoin value was lower than mining cost... any mining investment for me entailed relying on a price rise of bitcoin.


----------



## moXJO

When crypto consolidates it generally shows its run out of steam. You see it in the smaller coins first. Slowly starts to slip downwards. 
I think they restricted the Asian market which took a lot of the juice out.


----------



## noirua

*CleanSpark to acquire Bitcoin mining company ATL Data Centers to generate lower energy costs*



10 December 2020


----------



## noirua

Bullish divergence, TD9 'buy signal' align for a new Bitcoin relief rally
					

Bitcoin relief rally hopes rise as bullish TD9 buy signal flashes.




					cointelegraph.com
				



The 4-hour price chart of Bitcoin is showing a bullish divergence just as it prints a TD9 buy signal. Both indicators typically light up when an asset sees a strong sell-off and the selling pressure gets exhausted.


----------



## moXJO

Some "interest rates swapping mechanisms".

https://swivel.substack.com/p/analysis-of-decentralized-interest


----------



## verce

derangedlawyer said:


> That didn't age well.




It aged perfectly!


----------



## matty77

Ill drop back in and say Hi when its $40k...


----------



## DB008

Which won't be too far away Matty


----------



## DB008

Opinions on this?



​


----------



## verce

DB008 said:


> Opinions on this?
> 
> 
> 
> ​





Very interesting perspective. Smart guy.


----------



## moXJO

DB008 said:


> Opinions on this?
> 
> 
> 
> ​




Interesting idea. I suppose as the world tries to catch on then money piles in.

Its hard to believe it was around the .08 cent mark a decade ago.
A $1000 bucks on a punt back then would have yielded 12500 coins. A cool $375 000 000 at $30000 (a bit less as .08 was USD). I had friends buying pizzas with it (US) back in the day.


----------



## moXJO

Noticed the other coins are not moving that much.


----------



## moXJO

Wasn't the last bull run round the same time of year?


----------



## Warr87

moXJO said:


> Noticed the other coins are not moving that much.




LTC and ETH did alright this week.


----------



## DB008

moXJO said:


> Wasn't the last bull run round the same time of year?




4 year cycle. Due to halving every 4 years.

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/​


----------



## moXJO

Warr87 said:


> LTC and ETH did alright this week.



Neither are near their all time highs. I wonder if they could get to doubling from here?

Personally I thought coins were looking weak the other week. Surprised by bitcoins run.


----------



## DB008

*Ruffer Investment Used Coinbase to Execute $745M Bitcoin Buy*​

As CoinDesk reported Tuesday, Ruffer invested 2.5% of its $27 billion portfolio into bitcoin in November. The following day, One River Digital, a crypto-focused offshoot of volatility hedge fund One River Asset Management, came out of stealth, proclaiming it had already brokered $600 million in bitcoin and ether for its institutional clients.​​Coinbase confirmed on Wednesday that it was conducting trade execution and crypto custody for One River Digital. It declined to comment for this story.​​Ruffer owns a stake in One River Digital. Billionaire hedge fund manager Alan Howard does as well. One River Digital did not respond to a request for comment.​

https://www.coindesk.com/ruffer-investment-one-river-digital-coinbase-bitcoin-buy


.​


----------



## DB008

Did someone mention Raoul Pal previously?


*This Is WHY Bitcoin Price Will Skyrocket: "A Wall Of Money Is Coming" (Raoul Pal)*






.​


----------



## wayneL

DB008 said:


> Did someone mention Raoul Pal previously?
> 
> 
> *This Is WHY Bitcoin Price Will Skyrocket: "A Wall Of Money Is Coming" (Raoul Pal)*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .​




This is why I have become a HODLer. Have been keeping track of the whales who have been gradually wading into Bitcoin.

Just wish I was as "irresponsibly long" as Mr Pal.


----------



## DB008

$5 Billion Ark Investments Founder is "Extremely Bullish" on Bitcoin.

Thinks it has proven to be the reserve currency of the Internet - Bloomberg - Dec 18th 2020







.​


----------



## noirua

moXJO said:


> Noticed the other coins are not moving that much.



That depends on how many different coins are looked at. Here is a very long list of 3,819 -  https://uk.advfn.com/cryptocurrency


----------



## DB008

​


----------



## noirua

Australia's crypto ecosystem 2020: The spark for a DeFi explosion
					

Australia loves to embrace new technology and punch above its weight internationally. The growth of the crypto ecosystem Down Under during plague-ridden 2020 showcases both.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## DB008

*MicroStrategy Announces Over $1B in Total Bitcoin Purchases in 2020*​


TYSONS CORNER, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 21, 2020-- MicroStrategy® Incorporated (Nasdaq: MSTR) (the “Company”), the largest independent publicly-traded business intelligence company, today announced that it had purchased an additional approximately 29,646 bitcoins for approximately $650.0 million in cash in accordance with its Treasury Reserve Policy, at an average price of approximately $21,925 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.​​As of December 21, 2020, the Company holds an aggregate of approximately 70,470 bitcoins, which were acquired at an aggregate purchase price of approximately $1.125 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $15,964 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.​​At 12:00 midnight on December 21, 2020, the market price of bitcoin reported on Coinbase was approximately $23,910 per bitcoin.​​“The Company continues to operate in accordance with its Treasury Reserve Policy and currently holds approximately 70,470 bitcoins,” said Michael J. Saylor, CEO, MicroStrategy Incorporated.  “The acquisition of additional bitcoins announced today reaffirms our belief that bitcoin, as the world’s most widely-adopted cryptocurrency, is a dependable store of value.  We believe the proactive management of our balance sheet, combined with the improved revenue and profitability performance of the Company, have been significant factors in the recent appreciation in our stock price.”​​“The Company continues to believe bitcoin will provide the opportunity for better returns and preserve the value of our capital over time compared to holding cash.  We also remain dedicated to our customers and our goal of operating a growing profitable business intelligence company,” said Phong Le, President & CFO, MicroStrategy Incorporated.  “As we work to grow revenue through HyperIntelligence®, Cloud Intelligence™ and Embedded Intelligence™ offerings, the Company expects to continue to generate positive operating income and free cash flow and will continue to evaluate the use of excess cash in accordance with our capital allocation strategy and Treasury Reserve Policy.”​​
https://www.microstrategy.com/en/co...es-over-1b-in-total-bitcoin-purchases-in-2020



.​


----------



## moXJO

noirua said:


> That depends on how many different coins are looked at. Here is a very long list of 3,819 -  https://uk.advfn.com/cryptocurrency



That was a long list. 
My main thoughts: is this where bitcoin becomes 'the one to rule them all"?

Ltc, eth, xrp don't look that strong (all time highs considered).


----------



## kenny

Ripple being sued by the SEC won't be helpful to the XRP price;









						XRP Price Plunges After Ripple Says Company Will Be Sued by SEC - The Daily Hodl
					

The price of XRP is down 16% after Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the company will be sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## DB008

Wayne, this podcast is for you.





​
This is an episode of The Pomp Podcast with host Anthony "Pomp" Pompliano and guest, Raoul Pal, he co founder and CEO of Real Vision. He spent his entire career as a successful macro investor, retired at an early age, and is one of the most prolific investor voices on Twitter.​​​In this conversation, Raoul and Anthony discuss what the world’s best investors are saying behind closed doors, the macro economy, Bitcoin, gold, institutional asset allocation, CBDCs, DeFi, what would change Raoul’s mind, and recent progress at Real Vision.​​​​​.​


----------



## DB008

In the podcast above, this is what Raoul talks about.



​


----------



## DB008

*The Winklevoss Twins: Bitcoin Is The "Trade of the Decade" (w/ Raoul Pal)*









.​


----------



## DB008

Great podcast.

Well worth watching



*Bitcoin Infiltrates Corporate America (w/ Michael Saylor and Raoul Pal)*






.​


----------



## DB008

*Bitcoin is the world's first engineered safe-haven investment: Microstrategy's Saylor*








.​


----------



## moXJO

kenny said:


> Ripple being sued by the SEC won't be helpful to the XRP price;
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> XRP Price Plunges After Ripple Says Company Will Be Sued by SEC - The Daily Hodl
> 
> 
> The price of XRP is down 16% after Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the company will be sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> dailyhodl.com



Good find. Was wondering why they were dropping.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin cash outs arrive at 16,000 ATM machines across the UK
					

Bitcoin holders can now sell their cryptocurrency at 16,000 Cashzone ATMs and instantly cash out between £10 and £500.




					www.thisismoney.co.uk
				












						Popularity of Bitcoin ATM. Australia develops the network of new machines
					

Find ATM machines in Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra. Learn about more Bitcoin ATM locations in Australia.



					bcash.eu


----------



## noirua

Noirua - 25 Dec 2020 - 11:50:04 - 9170 of 9172Argo Blockchain PLC - ARBDevelopment of cryptosystem with Bitcoin ATM. Australia machines™ location
Https://bcash.eu/en/blogs/40-Bitcoin-ATM-Australia/

Find a Bitcoin ATM near you in Western Canada
Https://bitcoinwell.com/atm/

Bitcoin ATMs in Russian Federation
Total number of Bitcoin ATMs / Tellers in Russian Federation: 54
Https://coinatmradar.com/country/177/bitcoin-atm-russian-federation/

Total number of Bitcoin ATMs / Tellers in Poland: 89
Https://coinatmradar.com/country/171/bitcoin-atm-poland/

Total number of Bitcoin ATMs / Tellers in the United States: 11263
Https://coinatmradar.com/country/226/bitcoin-atm-united-states/


----------



## DB008

Those BTC ATM's are a rip off.

The ATM price is (usually) about 15+% above the actual BTC spot price.
Your probably better off using an app and buy through it.

What is really starting to hurt BTC is the cost of moving it around. As the BTC price rises and most exchanges have a fixed price for sending BTC (usually 0.003), its getting expensive. I have been using Stellar (XLM), which is literally fractions of a cent to send, and confirmed within 5 seconds.

Anyways, the BTC price keeps going higher and higher. Another ATH last night AU time. Rumours going around that someone purchased 1000 Bitcoin, which really pushed the price up. BTC marching to $1 million...









.​


----------



## DB008

BTC Stock 2 Flow plodding along 


​


----------



## DB008

matty77 said:


> Ill drop back in and say Hi when its $40k...




USD or AUD?

BTC up again overnight...


----------



## kenny

Do traditional technical analysis techniques work for cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH?


----------



## grah33

DB008 said:


> Those BTC ATM's are a rip off.
> 
> The ATM price is (usually) about 15+% above the actual BTC spot price.
> Your probably better off using an app and buy through it.
> 
> What is really starting to hurt BTC is the cost of moving it around. As the BTC price rises and most exchanges have a fixed price for sending BTC (usually 0.003), its getting expensive. I have been using Stellar (XLM), which is literally fractions of a cent to send, and confirmed within 5 seconds.
> 
> Anyways, the BTC price keeps going higher and higher. Another ATH last night AU time. Rumours going around that someone purchased 1000 Bitcoin, which really pushed the price up. BTC marching to $1 million...
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 117184
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .​



good luck DB


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin rockets over the holiday period
Bitcoin charts;
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&t=0&p=0&dm=0&width=398&height=222 https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&t=0&p=1&dm=0&width=398&height=222 https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&t=0&p=3&dm=0&width=398&height=222
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&t=0&p=5&dm=0&width=398&height=222https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&t=0&p=7&dm=0&width=398&height=222


----------



## DB008

Just broke $28k USD


----------



## qldfrog

DB008 said:


> Just broke $28k USD



Sold some last night above 36k AUD 😊


----------



## frugal.rock

When I looked into mining BTC, the price of BTC, electricity and hardware meant I would be relying on a BTC price rise, for it to pay. 
I decided against it, as was too risky in comparison to other investments.
It's probably fair to say, that it is now well and truly worth it, but for how long? 
With the price getting up, more mining will come online, and where electricity is "free", I wouldn't be surprised if some recently retried equipment is switched back on to try to capture the high price.
Something to remember.

I would think current costs to mine 1 bitcoin would be around around $20k US (where all is fair and electricity paid for at Western world rates), but that is just my guesstimation from calcs done around 3 years ago.

Would be interested to see current rates. Cheers.


----------



## peter2

Thanks to @ducati916 for mentioning the crypto ETFs (GBTC, ETHE). I planned to buy them as a longer term trade on Monday. The over-weekend gap up has scuttled those plans for a while. I expect these ETFs to open much higher than their last closes. I'm more convinced that the speculative gold bulls are buying BTC instead. 

@frugal.rock  IMO if you've got the tech knowledge to mine BTC then you should be able to setup a few solar panels in the backyard to power your BTC mining operation. You might get lucky.


----------



## Warr87

It's easy to setup the BTC mining rig. When I looked at it over 5 years ago, even then you'd be breaking even or slightly losing based on the current BTC price. But in hindsight (I revisted it every year or 2) and it would have been profitable. It really does depend on the rising BTC price. I'm happy to just be trading it now instead of setting up a mining rig.


----------



## frugal.rock

peter2 said:


> IMO if you've got the tech knowledge to mine BTC then you should be able to setup a few solar panels in the backyard



The whole venture is really a go big or go home kind of deal.
Solar is better in summer, but the whole heat to efficiency ratio is very variable and really needs to be managed, from a diminishing returns, point of view. Optimisation.

The mining rigs throw out a lot of heat, so much so, I have read of people designing a house central heating system around a rig setup using the usually wasted heat. 
Good for winter, but summer is a real issue.


----------



## qldfrog

frugal.rock said:


> The whole venture is really a go big or go home kind of deal.
> Solar is better in summer, but the whole heat to efficiency ratio is very variable and really needs to be managed, from a diminishing returns, point of view. Optimisation.
> 
> The mining rigs throw out a lot of heat, so much so, I have read of people designing a house central heating system around a rig setup using the usually wasted heat.
> Good for winter, but summer is a real issue.



In China, they build btc mines by reservoir 
Nearly free power And cooling    .,


----------



## alshamy70

kenny said:


> Do traditional technical analysis techniques work for cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH?



Yes, I use exactly the same technical analysis for crypto that I use for stocks etc. If you intend to trade short term then you must use technical analysis. Most people intend to buy, hold and prey. Each to their own.


----------



## SyBoo

I'm just going to drop this here.

China's Coal Standoff Causes Power Shortages, Chinese Bitcoin Miners 'Heavily Affected' | Mining Bitcoin News


----------



## DB008

*Greenpro Announces Bitcoin Fund*​

*KUALA LUMPUR / ACCESSWIRE / December 28, 2020 /* *Greenpro Capital Corp. (NASDAQ:GRNQ*) today announced that it intends to set up a Bitcoin ($BTC) Fund for investment.​​GRNQ announced today that it believes in the ongoing mass adoption of $BTC by banks, hedge funds, insurance companies and institutions and endorses its belief that bitcoin, as the world's most widely-adopted cryptocurrency, is a reliable future store of value. We believe the strategic management of our balance sheet, combined with the implementation of our $BTC Fund and crypto strategy will produce significant future value for the Company. GRNQ believes that $BTC and other top crypto currencies such as Ethereum "ETH" will provide the opportunity for better returns and preserve the value of our capital over time rather than holding cash. We also remain committed to our incubation business model as well as our satellite and A.I. accounting businesses."​​GRNQ's CEO, CK Lee recently received an Honorary PhD in Finance and Crypto currencies from Rivera University, located in France.​​Greenpro CEO CK Lee said, "We fully believe in $BTC as a store of value. I've instructed our investment bankers to raise debt in Q1, 2021 of up to US$100 million to invest in $BTC. The Company will also invest its own cash into $BTC."​​The Company will use its subsidiary, CryptoSX to acquire its $BTC stake.​

https://www.accesswire.com/622399/Greenpro-Announces-Bitcoin-Fund



.​


----------



## DB008

Regarding Mining


*Marathon Patent Group Purchases 70,000 S-19 ASIC Miners From Bitmain*​
Marathon Patent Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MARA), one of the largest enterprise Bitcoin self-mining companies in North America, has entered into a contract with Bitmain to purchase 70,000 Antminer S-19 ASIC miners.​​Under the terms of the agreement, Marathon anticipates receiving an initial batch of 7,000 S-19 miners in July 2021 and the final shipment in December 2021. Once all miners are fully deployed, the Company’s mining fleet will consist of more than 103,000 miners capable of producing 10.36 EH/s. This landscape changing purchase of these miners more than triples the size of Marathon’s existing fleet of 33,000 miners.​​Marathon’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Merrick Okamoto, stated, “This purchase is the largest order in dollar terms as well as the single largest order for S-19 ASIC miners that Bitmain has ever received. We appreciate the hard work their team is putting in to fulfil this order as well as the 30,000 S-19 miners we have purchased since August 2020. Our relationship with Bitmain is an important component of our potential for future success, and we look forward to continuing working with them to scale our business.”​


https://focusinvesting.biz/marathon...-19-asic-miners-from-bitmain-for-170-million/



.​


----------



## DB008

.​


----------



## grah33

any decent site with btc chart showing volume?


----------



## DB008

https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitstamp/btcusd


----------



## frugal.rock

I can recommend the ASF site sponsor "investing.com"
Link to website with bitcoin in USD below.

They also have an app which I found quite good. 
Ads are a bit annoying but that's the price you pay for free.

Investing.com


----------



## matty77

DB008 said:


> USD or AUD?
> 
> BTC up again overnight...




AUD of course, then ill drop back again when its $100k AUD.


----------



## aus_trader

It's been slow to respond to Bitcoin price this time compared to Bitcoin's first run that happened a few years back, but I decided to put a bit of money on the Aussie Bitcoin/Blockchain stock  Digitalx Ltd (DCC). Perhaps there is some catching up to do in DCC's share price...




Details are in *Speculative Stock Portfolio *along with my other stock holdings.


----------



## noirua

*Top Fiat Currencies by Market Capitalization*

Major fiat currency market cap in BTC





__





						Fiat Market Capitalizations | FiatMarketCap
					





					fiatmarketcap.com


----------



## Warr87

my EA is in BTC again and doing alright. ETH closed yesterday with a small loss from false breakout, and its in again today. I'm hoping ETH can push a little higher but its already at the 700 mark which is a fair bit higher than what it was earlier in the year! I missed some of the move due to my EA having a few issues but now that its all sorted I'm starting to catch a few of the breakouts (I'm running a simple donchian BO EA that I coded on ETHUSD and BTCUSD).


----------



## grah33

I'm thinking one setback to BTC rising far is that there are many other rival cryptos .  it might be hard for BTC to get a big capitalization because of this .  what do you guys think?


----------



## qldfrog

grah33 said:


> I'm thinking one setback to BTC rising far is that there are many other rival cryptos .  it might be hard for BTC to get a big capitalization because of this .  what do you guys think?



My own view is that bitcoin has a privilege position, first one, name popularity
Btc eth and that's about it
hard enough to get traditional investors and fund into btc, there is no hope for smaller wannabe
And technology advantage will play no role.my view and probably wrong but i only trust BTC as having some investigating credibility


----------



## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> My own view is that bitcoin has a privilege position, first one, name popularity
> Btc eth and that's about it
> hard enough to get traditional investors and fund into btc, there is no hope for smaller wannabe
> And technology advantage will play no role.my view and probably wrong but i only trust BTC as having some investigating credibility



I meant investing... autocomplete....


----------



## matty77

grah33 said:


> I'm thinking one setback to BTC rising far is that there are many other rival cryptos .  it might be hard for BTC to get a big capitalization because of this .  what do you guys think?




I would say it has nothing to do with it to be honest.

99% of crypto will be gone eventually with only a few ones remaining, most of them are junk...

there is plenty of money that can go into BTC, like hundreds of billions if not trillions...

right now BTC is the king, it will take something amazing to knock it off its throne at this point.


----------



## grah33

interesting contrasting views 

BTC does seem like the next step - get rid of paper. and better and more reliable money system .


----------



## moXJO

Authorities can shut it down quickly if the wanted to. Regulation is the real danger. 

BTC is the coin of choice. However trading the smaller coins turns more profit.


----------



## grah33

moXJO said:


> Authorities can shut it down quickly if the wanted to. Regulation is the real danger.
> 
> BTC is the coin of choice. However trading the smaller coins turns more profit.



and how could that play out (shutdown)?  this would mean people losing loads of money (especially the big investors).


----------



## againsthegrain

grah33 said:


> and how could that play out (shutdown)?  this would mean people losing loads of money (especially the big investors).




For one government can ban local exchanges trading in bitcoin,  China has done something like that before 



> Chinese regulatory authorities had imposed a ban on initial coin offerings (ICO), a cryptocurrency-based fundraising process, and termed it illegal in China in September 2017. That ban triggered an instant 6% decline in bitcoin prices. Following the ban, the Shanghai-based BTCC bitcoin exchange was forced to close its Chinese trading operations. (For more, see China Intensifies Crackdown On Bitcoin Mining.)


----------



## moXJO

grah33 said:


> and how could that play out (shutdown)?  this would mean people losing loads of money (especially the big investors).



Biden seems crypto friendly but that can mean they are going to fiddle with it. Korea, China and a few others did lay down regulation and helped pop the last run. 

SEC against xrp will be interesting. I think the SEC do have a case as the ripple founders (allegedly) did some dodgy stuff. If SEC comes out with a win they may be emboldened from there. 

All just speculation for now. But its good to keep an eye on.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin just hit exactly US$30,000 before falling back a bit.


----------



## noirua




----------



## Smurf1976

noirua said:


> Bitcoin just hit exactly US$30,000 before falling back a bit.



An almost vertical price rise, inexperienced traders jumping on the bandwagon (various assets not just Bitcoin) and now funds are getting interested.

Brings back memories of early 2000 with the .com boom and bust, this seems all too familiar with what took place then and that sure didn't end well. 

I'm invested in stocks but keeping an active watch on what's going on. Bitcoin I'm staying out of though.


----------



## noirua

Smurf1976 said:


> An almost vertical price rise, inexperienced traders jumping on the bandwagon (various assets not just Bitcoin) and now funds are getting interested.
> 
> Brings back memories of early 2000 with the .com boom and bust, this seems all too familiar with what took place then and that sure didn't end well.
> 
> I'm invested in stocks but keeping an active watch on what's going on. Bitcoin I'm staying out of though.



There is a high risk here and especially so if a person holds on and on without closing here and there on the way up.  The aim always must be to get as close as possible to cashing in the original amount invested, and as is often said, 'run the rest'.  Try to avoid going back in again as heavy as at the first stage - as even with shares that's the way to lose out.  Sometimes worth crashing the computer grabbing a coat and going for a very long walk with no device as a temptation.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin goes to $32,900 on its target forecast for $36,000 by some.


----------



## noirua

How massive Bitcoin buyer activity on Coinbase propelled BTC price past $32K
					

The price of Bitcoin surged past $31,400 after buyers on Coinbase aggressively accumulated BTC.




					cointelegraph.com
				






> “12,063 $BTC just flowed out from #Coinbase. It went to multiple cold wallets. Possibly OTC deals. Breaking 30k is going to be tough, but institutions don't care. They just buy it more.”


----------



## DB008

Smurf1976 said:


> An almost vertical price rise, inexperienced traders jumping on the bandwagon (various assets not just Bitcoin) and now funds are getting interested.
> 
> Brings back memories of early 2000 with the .com boom and bust, this seems all too familiar with what took place then and that sure didn't end well.
> 
> I'm invested in stocks but keeping an active watch on what's going on. Bitcoin I'm staying out of though.




Posted earlier, but again for you Smurf1976 - timestamped it for you. The next 10 minutes explains a lot. Yields are almost 0%, add in inflation which is around 6% pa, holding cash is useless. Unless your making 15% pa, your losing money.


​






Anyways, here an old clip some guy mining Bitcoin back in 2014





.​


----------



## matty77

Well that didnt take long to rocket past $40k..

I think we need a pullback soon.


----------



## DB008

See you in a few months at 100k Matty


----------



## againsthegrain

If used right by the smart money bitcoin could be the greatest tool of wealth transfer from the poor to the elites, time will tell how it will play out


----------



## grah33

noirua said:


> There is a high risk here and especially so if a person holds on and on without closing here and there on the way up.  The aim always must be to get as close as possible to cashing in the original amount invested, and as is often said, 'run the rest'.  Try to avoid going back in again as heavy as at the first stage - as even with shares that's the way to lose out.  Sometimes worth crashing the computer grabbing a coat and going for a very long walk with no device as a temptation.



BTC might also be gaining popularity as well now, so we don't know ...

it's possible to get in gradually rather than in one go


----------



## Warr87

matty77 said:


> Well that didnt take long to rocket past $40k..
> 
> I think we need a pullback soon.




its trending nicely. i'm glad my system got me back in.


----------



## moXJO

DB008 said:


> See you in a few months at 100k Matty



It could literally be weeks or days to hit that target. Just depends on whales moving in. Its bloody hard to pick targets in a mania.

I actually sold out my eth yesterday. Hope it doesn't go for the moon.


----------



## Smurf1976

moXJO said:


> Its bloody hard to pick targets in a mania.



A mania is what I'm seeing this as being.

Time will tell if I'm wrong or right in that assessment. Fortunes will be made but also lost by the time it's done.


----------



## Warr87

moXJO said:


> It could literally be weeks or days to hit that target. Just depends on whales moving in. Its bloody hard to pick targets in a mania.
> 
> I actually sold out my eth yesterday. Hope it doesn't go for the moon.




I've had a few false BO's with ETH last week.Got stopped out a few times (I like using the 30min chart for ETH). It's crazy when you think about it was just $400 not long ago and now its in the $700's. Not as spectacular as BTC but I am a fan of ETH as well.


----------



## moXJO

Warr87 said:


> I've had a few false BO's with ETH last week.Got stopped out a few times (I like using the 30min chart for ETH). It's crazy when you think about it was just $400 not long ago and now its in the $700's. Not as spectacular as BTC but I am a fan of ETH as well.



As a currency I feel eth has better transactions. Btc seems to be a store of wealth. In saying that I was reading that there is only 3.6 million or something bitcoins actively being bought and sold constantly. So as it tightens I suppose that volatility starts going to extremes.

A lot of shorts were just caught out as well. I think it was 78000 short positions at about $800 million.
Its at the point where there are very few short positions on it. However people are not betting on it moving much higher. Which just makes me think no one knows where this is going right now. 

I have a few friends who just bought and held. And that's proven to be the trade of the century. I think its at 200% pa since inception.

I actually wanted to get rid of the rest of the xrp and move into bitcoin. 

Here's another site to add for all you bitcoin fanatics https://www.bybt.com/LiquidationData


----------



## noirua

The new crypto-list looks very much like the new dot-com list around 1998. Still, most of the new dot-coms made money early on, a lot of money, but crashed out-of-sight when the boom came to an end. Some made $40k every week and many ended up losing everything and some their sanity and a few their lives with it. Reports in the states of many telling their brokers, "Get me out at any price".








						New Cryptocurrencies | ADVFN
					

Latest coins and tokens added to ADVFN that are tradable at exchanges.



					uk.advfn.com


----------



## moXJO

Smurf1976 said:


> A mania is what I'm seeing this as being.
> 
> Time will tell if I'm wrong or right in that assessment. Fortunes will be made but also lost by the time it's done.



To tell you the truth the entire trading landscape has changed. I feel we are seeing the beginings of the greatest transition and transformation of how people think about:
Work
Economy
Finances 
Corporate/business structures 

Along with a whole host of other stuff. It feels like a big generation change a coming.

Its weird that the greatest investor I personally know basically lived with his mum at 35, played computer games and spanked it to pr0n. Did zero work beyond complete faith that BTC was the greatest investment ever. And he kept telling me to hold.  We are not just talking rich. But unbelievably rich.

People whinge about no opportunities or that boomers had it better. But no time in history has it been this full of opportunities to turn a buck. Tech has geared it so the average punter can make a fortune.


----------



## noirua




----------



## DB008

Smurf1976 said:


> A mania is what I'm seeing this as being.
> 
> Time will tell if I'm wrong or right in that assessment. Fortunes will be made but also lost by the time it's done.





Have posted earlier - but for you Smurf1976.

All of Bob's TA podcasts have been on track - all of them. I think one of his first podcasts really opened my eyes (from a TA perspective).


*Bitcoin's 4 Year Cycle - Opportunity (Original Author)*







*Your Training is Complete*





Around the 14 minute mark Bob talks about a 30% decline. He is realistic and a very good trader. Please watch




.​


----------



## kenny

DB008 said:


> All of Bob's TA podcasts have been on track - all of them. I think one of his first podcasts really opened my eyes (from a TA perspective).




Thanks @DB008 for introducing this. To save everyone searching, it's at https://4yearjourney.com

On what TA basis does he give credence to a potential 30% decline?


----------



## moXJO

moXJO said:


> I actually sold out my eth yesterday. Hope it doesn't go for the moon.




Of course it did.


----------



## Warr87

noirua said:


> The new crypto-list looks very much like the new dot-com list around 1998. Still, most of the new dot-coms made money early on, a lot of money, but crashed out-of-sight when the boom came to an end. Some made $40k every week and many ended up losing everything and some their sanity and a few their lives with it. Reports in the states of many telling their brokers, "Get me out at any price".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Cryptocurrencies | ADVFN
> 
> 
> Latest coins and tokens added to ADVFN that are tradable at exchanges.
> 
> 
> 
> uk.advfn.com




it certainly does feel a bit like the dot-com bubble. the issue, and particuarly with bubbles, is that everyone piles in with very little understanding or reason why. The real issue is the flip side: they have no rule or mechanic for when to sell. just like the dot-com bubble, people pilled in and never thought about what if it went down? I await the people crying over putting there money into what could be the height of BTC without an understanding of the risk and are then shocked that it doesn't perpetually continuing going up so they lose there money in a panic selling of the mob.

Does that mean I think BTC is worthless? Nope. I still like it and will continue to trade it but I'm also aware of the risks. (I also wont refuse to take responsibility for a poor trade and lack of understanding concerning risks of any trade and/or investment made.)


----------



## Warr87

moXJO said:


> Of course it did.




I was shocked to log into my broker and see my EA had taken an ETH trade. The shocking part was the ETH price ..... if only my broker traded 7 days I could've caught it during the weekend not on the monday open where the gapup on the chart is something else, lol.


----------



## grah33

it really accelerated just now  - downward - in this last 30 minutes especially ...  ate more into my profits than what i would have liked, but still got something solid.
maybe i should use some stops.  dk.  worried the broker will cut me out


----------



## againsthegrain

grah33 said:


> it really accelerated just now  - downward - in this last 30 minutes especially ...  ate more into my profits than what i would have liked, but still got something solid.
> maybe i should use some stops.  dk.  worried the broker will cut me out




Gone down as fast as it went up,  if it keeps going below 30k curious to see if gold will go up with panicked money looking for some stability


----------



## DB008

I'm just a buy and hold type of guy. I thought l was smart buying ETH for $12 and selling it for $18.....

Why bother trying to chase a profit, when all you have to do it buy and hold.

BTC has consistently shown better returns than almost anything out there. It's easy money.

Don't sell your sats.


-------------



Blockstream entering the BTC storage market - Jade Hardware Wallet

$39 USD




https://blockstream.com/jade/

(I have no idea about this product - just putting it out there)



.​


----------



## DB008

Here are 2 other 'off the beaten path' hardware wallets (besides Trezor and Ledger).



*Coldcard - Made in Canada*

Has some great features

https://coldcardwallet.com/





*Keevo*

https://www.keevowallet.com/




.​


----------



## againsthegrain

DB008 said:


> I'm just a buy and hold type of guy. I thought l was smart buying ETH for $12 and selling it for $18.....
> 
> Why bother trying to chase a profit, when all you have to do it buy and hold.
> 
> BTC has consistently shown better returns than almost anything out there. It's easy money.
> 
> Don't sell your sats.
> 
> 
> -------------
> 
> 
> 
> Blockstream entering the BTC storage market - Jade Hardware Wallet
> 
> $39 USD
> 
> View attachment 117716
> 
> 
> https://blockstream.com/jade/
> 
> (I have no idea about this product - just putting it out there)
> 
> 
> 
> .​




Id still prefer to have my wallet on multiple usb sticks which are encrypted stored in different locations. The jade wallet in theory is a ok idea but in practice what happens if it stops working, or fire water etc In that case you would need about 3 to feel comfortable at 30usd a pop gets a bit expensive, but that is me.  
I had 40-50 bitcoins once bought for 15 sold for 30 doubled my money.  When it got to 100 I didn't bother because no way it could double again,  so anything is possible from here.  However to only double your money from here u need bitcoin to hit 80k too late for me to catch this train


----------



## DB008

againsthegrain said:


> Id still prefer to have my wallet on multiple usb sticks which are encrypted stored in different locations. The jade wallet in theory is a ok idea but in practice what happens if it stops working, or fire water etc In that case you would need about 3 to feel comfortable at 30usd a pop gets a bit expensive, but that is me.




That's easy, and with your background in BTC (from what you've posted), l'm surprised you wouldn't know that all you have to do is download a BTC wallet (millions out there), put in your 12/24 (+ passphrase if using one), and your back in business. Takes literally 3 minutes.

Even with your encrypted USB sticks, they are prone to failure. So you still have your seed written down somewhere.



againsthegrain said:


> I had 40-50 bitcoins once bought for 15 sold for 30 doubled my money. When it got to 100 I didn't bother because no way it could double again, so anything is possible from here. However to only double your money from here u need bitcoin to hit 80k too late for me to catch this train




I'm sticking to my guns and predicting $1 million BTC by 2028. You ain't late. Thats still a 10 bagger right there.


----------



## Warr87

grah33 said:


> it really accelerated just now  - downward - in this last 30 minutes especially ...  ate more into my profits than what i would have liked, but still got something solid.
> maybe i should use some stops.  dk.  worried the broker will cut me out




BTC or ETH? both looked like they took a quick slide down. My ETH sold for a small 0.5% loss. My BTC is still in the game. I have made my EA's using a trailing stop which seems to be more secure since the stop is with the ticket. No sell signal needed. It's working well so far.


----------



## againsthegrain

DB008 said:


> That's easy, and with your background in BTC (from what you've posted), l'm surprised you wouldn't know that all you have to do is download a BTC wallet (millions out there), put in your 12/24 (+ passphrase if using one), and your back in business. Takes literally 3 minutes.
> 
> Even with your encrypted USB sticks, they are prone to failure. So you still have your seed written down somewhere.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm sticking to my guns and predicting $1 million BTC by 2028. You ain't late. Thats still a 10 bagger right there.




Yeah but u still need to keep your private key somewhere,  the public wallet bit is not a problem but private key is what you need to store offline in multiple locations to be sure to sure.  I only use cold wallets.  To be honest I am not sitting on big $ but when I bought ripple thinking its the next big thing I printed 1 copy of the private key and hid it, encrypted it and emailed to a few emails I have and of course on 1 or 2 usb drives, you guessed it encrypted.  So a jade wallet is ok but you still need that private key


----------



## DB008

I prefer XLM over XRP

XLM is like Ripple 5.0

Miles in front.



The Keevo hardware wallet looks interesting.
Can do fingerprint seedless recovery, trustless inheritance, etc etc etc....

I do understand you though, where do you keep a seed, that could potentially be worth big $$, safe?


----------



## grah33

DB008 said:


> I'm just a buy and hold type of guy. I thought l was smart buying ETH for $12 and selling it for $18.....
> 
> Why bother trying to chase a profit, when all you have to do it buy and hold.
> 
> BTC has consistently shown better returns than almost anything out there. It's easy money.
> 
> Don't sell your sats.
> 
> 
> -------------
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .​



but u gotta take profits at some point, or those runs previously done would have been fruitless


----------



## DB008

2028


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin price dives to $27.7K to fill giant futures gap in biggest drop since $20K
					

A dramatic reversal on Monday sees BTC/USD instantly fill the latest CME futures gap before bouncing off forecast levels below $28,000.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Data from Cointelegraph Markets, Coin360 and TradingView showed BTC/USD shedding more than 12% in just one hour on Monday.


----------



## Smurf1976

Warr87 said:


> it certainly does feel a bit like the dot-com bubble.



I don't trade Bitcoin. Obviously it was a mistake to not have done so but putting that aside and being objective, it sure looks like a blow off to me and all very reminiscent of the .com bubble.

For those who weren't around or were too young to be paying attention at the time, the basic similarities I'm seeing:

Then: Massive hype, stretching back as far as the 1980's, surrounding the year 2000 and just how great everything was going to be and what a wonderful world we were all going to be living in.

Now: Massive hype that 2021 is going to be so much better than the disaster that was 2020 now that we're done with Covid, the US election is sorted (note that I'm not commenting on the outcome, just that it's done) and so on.

Then: We had this great new thing called "the internet" that was going to change everything, heck you can even buy dog food using it.

Now: Blockchain is the new tech and it's going to change all sorts of things, heck you can even use it for money.

Then: The new concept of online trading and the heavy promotion of retail managed funds had brought many people into the markets who previously hadn't been involved at all. Funds chasing returns went all in on what they called TIME - Telecommunications Information and Media Enterprises aka anyone even remotely involved with the internet in some way.

Now: Robinhood and cryptocurrency trading have brought a flood of new traders into the markets. Funds are reportedly getting involved with crypto.

And so on. I may well be wrong but it does all feel rather familiar. Not a problem if you're actively trading but a "buy and hold" approach carries huge risk at this point in my view, especially so if leveraged.

I'm not a doomer and it's not sour grapes that I didn't invest in Bitcoin when it was cheap, I just don't like the look of the chart and the hype surrounding it at present. It sounds eerily familiar to January 2000 right now. Time will tell.


----------



## Warr87

Smurf1976 said:


> I don't trade Bitcoin. Obviously it was a mistake to not have done so but putting that aside and being objective, it sure looks like a blow off to me and all very reminiscent of the .com bubble.
> 
> For those who weren't around or were too young to be paying attention at the time, the basic similarities I'm seeing:
> 
> Then: Massive hype, stretching back as far as the 1980's, surrounding the year 2000 and just how great everything was going to be and what a wonderful world we were all going to be living in.
> 
> Now: Massive hype that 2021 is going to be so much better than the disaster that was 2020 now that we're done with Covid, the US election is sorted (note that I'm not commenting on the outcome, just that it's done) and so on.
> 
> Then: We had this great new thing called "the internet" that was going to change everything, heck you can even buy dog food using it.
> 
> Now: Blockchain is the new tech and it's going to change all sorts of things, heck you can even use it for money.
> 
> Then: The new concept of online trading and the heavy promotion of retail managed funds had brought many people into the markets who previously hadn't been involved at all. Funds chasing returns went all in on what they called TIME - Telecommunications Information and Media Enterprises aka anyone even remotely involved with the internet in some way.
> 
> Now: Robinhood and cryptocurrency trading have brought a flood of new traders into the markets. Funds are reportedly getting involved with crypto.
> 
> And so on. I may well be wrong but it does all feel rather familiar. Not a problem if you're actively trading but a "buy and hold" approach carries huge risk at this point in my view, especially so if leveraged.
> 
> I'm not a doomer and it's not sour grapes that I didn't invest in Bitcoin when it was cheap, I just don't like the look of the chart and the hype surrounding it at present. It sounds eerily familiar to January 2000 right now. Time will tell.




Other similarities are that with the dot-com bubble, you just added 'dot com' to a company/stock/etc and it would take off. Add the same with crypto and the same thing has been happening.

As I said, I'm still a believer in the use and value of BTC. But then I'm still an advocate and user of the internet and websites. Even if it is a bubble it shouldn't be an argument to get rid of BTC just that people need to readjust their risk profiles, do their due diligence, and try not to be susceptible to mass hysteria. All well and good to say, of course, but history has a tendency to repeat itself lol. (if it is a bubble I'm sure BTC will still be around in the future.)

The diminising returns and difficulty in mining is also why I prefer to trade BTC through a broker rather than mining. Right now its through CFDs because its convenient with my broker. I'd probably be doing futures if my python coding was up to scratch. I'm not a fan of buy-and-hold with BTC. I need a strategy to get out.


----------



## moXJO

Warr87 said:


> I was shocked to log into my broker and see my EA had taken an ETH trade. The shocking part was the ETH price ..... if only my broker traded 7 days I could've caught it during the weekend not on the monday open where the gapup on the chart is something else, lol.



My exits are always atrocious. Realistically I should have sat on it as it made about $2k as a high (if my memory serves me correctly) last run. 

Everything looks parabolic to me though. 
Plus my attention span. I tend to lose interest after the initial pump. 

What's the old saying, "know your strengths". Well mine are entries. My trading skills are crap and I'm to lazy to knuckle down now. So its wait for a run then hop off.  

Once I came to the simple conclusion of "stop trading so much because you suck at it" I made some real coin. 
Yep sometimes you just have to face harsh harsh reality.


----------



## Warr87

moXJO said:


> My exits are always atrocious. Realistically I should have sat on it as it made about $2k as a high (if my memory serves me correctly) last run.
> 
> Everything looks parabolic to me though.
> Plus my attention span. I tend to lose interest after the initial pump.
> 
> What's the old saying, "know your strengths". Well mine are entries. My trading skills are crap and I'm to lazy to knuckle down now. So its wait for a run then hop off.
> 
> Once I came to the simple conclusion of "stop trading so much because you suck at it" I made some real coin.
> Yep sometimes you just have to face harsh harsh reality.




are you trading a system? I'm just trading a Donchian system. Long only looking for a BO past the 10period high on a 4H chart for BTC. A trailing stoploss at 15period lowest low. And slightly different parametrics for ETH (and using it for CORN, SOY, and just started spot gold). It's hard to stick to a trading plan when you don't have one . That may help you rein in your weakness haha.


----------



## moXJO

Warr87 said:


> are you trading a system? I'm just trading a Donchian system. Long only looking for a BO past the 10period high on a 4H chart for BTC. A trailing stoploss at 15period lowest low. And slightly different parametrics for ETH (and using it for CORN, SOY, and just started spot gold). It's hard to stick to a trading plan when you don't have one . That may help you rein in your weakness haha.




Not so much a system anymore, more just general guidelines. I found that systems don't always transfer to whatever "latest craze" I jump into.
I'll try and tailor guidelines round chart history. But I keep things basic these days as have too much going on.

I think I burnt myself out during dot com and the lead up to gfc. I hate the whole process now.
Honestly couldn't even look at stocks after it was all done.

I probably trade the news (on temperament) more then the charts now.  I made more money just keeping my ear to the ground across social media. I will trade crashes though.

But you're right I need to plan exits better then "I want x times my money off this trade".
I suppose I could automate the whole thing.
But even as I typed the above I felt my interest levels fade off.


----------



## Warr87

moXJO said:


> Not so much a system anymore, more just general guidelines. I found that systems don't always transfer to whatever "latest craze" I jump into.
> I'll try and tailor guidelines round chart history. But I keep things basic these days as have too much going on.
> 
> I think I burnt myself out during dot com and the lead up to gfc. I hate the whole process now.
> Honestly couldn't even look at stocks after it was all done.
> 
> I probably trade the news (on temperament) more then the charts now.  I made more money just keeping my ear to the ground across social media. I will trade crashes though.
> 
> But you're right I need to plan exits better then "I want x times my money off this trade".
> I suppose I could automate the whole thing.
> But even as I typed the above I felt my interest levels fade off.




Fair enough mate. I wasn't trading during the GFC. Cant imagine it was good.

Have a look at the donchian system. Buy when it makes new highs, sell when its made a new low. Or short on new lows, cover on new highs. Donchian is considered the father of trend trading by some. Still widely used today. If I remember correctly, skate traded a donchian system in stocks for one of his first systems.

Im just trying to ride the wave up. I dont set profit targets for myself. When the trend ends I'm out.


----------



## moXJO

Warr87 said:


> Fair enough mate. I wasn't trading during the GFC. Cant imagine it was good.
> 
> Have a look at the donchian system. Buy when it makes new highs, sell when its made a new low. Or short on new lows, cover on new highs. Donchian is considered the father of trend trading by some. Still widely used today. If I remember correctly, skate traded a donchian system in stocks for one of his first systems.
> 
> Im just trying to ride the wave up. I dont set profit targets for myself. When the trend ends I'm out.



Gfc was fantastic both the years before, during and straight after.  
Personally I only get interested in stocks when a black Swan comes along these days. 

I'm always interested in systems people are using. I usually pinch bits and pieces.

I usually set price targets if I want out to roll into something with more potential to xbag.


----------



## grah33

haven't read all the details above, but BITcoin is supposed to be about money retaining value when other markets are crashing.  like it's good for that.


----------



## Warr87

moXJO said:


> Gfc was fantastic both the years before, during and straight after.
> Personally I only get interested in stocks when a black Swan comes along these days.
> 
> I'm always interested in systems people are using. I usually pinch bits and pieces.
> 
> I usually set price targets if I want out to roll into something with more potential to xbag.




im going to explore some really basic trend following systems soon. i'm pre-occupied with a few projects. though new highs/lows is simple. even just a new yearly high. can't get more simple and yet tends to provide good returns in most markets.

sounds like you are more of a pullback and/or swing trader tbh. I do like the pullback style.


----------



## verce

peter2 said:


> How's bitcoin handling this coronavirus crisis?  Not well I see, -40% and still falling.
> 
> View attachment 101269




@peter2

Can we get your updated thoughts for 2021?


----------



## grah33

verce said:


> @peter2
> 
> Can we get your updated thoughts for 2021?



i too wondered why it wasn't rising before ... i thought of going into it much earlier but wanted it to bottom out more, so missed an even bigger run


----------



## noirua

Blockchain.com follows other exchanges in delisting XRP
					

Blockchain.com told users that it continues to monitor developments from a regulatory compliance perspective.




					cointelegraph.com
				




Ripple's woes multiply as Blockchain.com becomes the latest exchange to suspend trading of XRP.


----------



## qldfrog

Last November, i added 8k in my trading btc account, just widrawn that amount tofay and still have  the same amount left to play with btc there.
Amazing.doubling in 2 months and i just did a few in out to leverage the volatility.
Like free money, a QE for the commoners 😊


----------



## verce

qldfrog said:


> Last November, i added 8k in my trading btc account, just widrawn that amount tofay and still have  the same amount left to play with btc there.
> Amazing.doubling in 2 months and i just did a few in out to leverage the volatility.
> Like free money, a QE for the commoners 😊




You are witnessing the birth of a mathematically secure new asset class that is entirely neutral in the long term and uncorrelated with anything in existing financial markets. This is a once in a generation opportunity to get in on the ground floor. Like investing in Google or Apple in the early days.


----------



## grah33

musk seems to like it too.

it doesn't have to travel far to rival Gold


----------



## kenny

Well done @qldfrog on setting up the free carry. You managed to resist the urge to HODL?

@verce I tend to agree there is an inflection point happening that will be pointed to when we look back a decade from now.


----------



## qldfrog

kenny said:


> Well done @qldfrog on setting up the free carry. You managed to resist the urge to HODL?
> 
> @verce I tend to agree there is an inflection point happening that will be pointed to when we look back a decade from now.



I own some BTC on a separate system.
This was a little play coming far too late as i decided to buy more and waited due to personal busy time,
 by the time i logged and bought the first bits of btc, it was already much higher.
Now i got the money back and will put the 8k remaining into btc again at the next slump.


----------



## Warr87

qldfrog said:


> I own some BTC on a separate system.
> This was a little play coming far too late as i decided to buy more and waited due to personal busy time,
> by the time i logged and bought the first bits of btc, it was already much higher.
> Now i got the money back and will put the 8k remaining into btc again at the next slump.




Or short it on the way down? 

I hope it works for you a second time!


----------



## kenny

qldfrog said:


> Now i got the money back and will put the 8k remaining into btc again at the next slump.




I imagine there wouldn't be many currencies, instruments or assets that demonstrate such volatility even when trending.


----------



## noirua

Finally, a good reason to sell Bitcoin: Hodler liquidates to pay off parents’ mortgage
					

The unique world of r/Bitcoin just delivered another human interest story, as one user reportedly sold all their BTC to pay their parents' mortgage.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## Joules MM1

40k sell the round number



			https://www.tradingview.com/x/yvv2YHpA/
		


one small step for hodls


----------



## Warr87

Joules MM1 said:


> 40k sell the round number
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.tradingview.com/x/yvv2YHpA/
> 
> 
> 
> one small step for hodls




I can see some selling pressure around the 40k mark. Having a look at my chart (4H) there is a big doji on the last candle. Buyers still kept it up, but in the current candle it looks like sellers are gaining a bit more ground. I would hazard a guess that people see 40k as a big resistance and are wanting to cash out some profits. Probably some consildation around this mark as people will wait and see what happens next. 

I got in at 27k and my SL is now at 31k. Interested to see how things go from here.


----------



## Joules MM1

the mcmansion crowd came and made a floor, a range bound


----------



## Warr87

Looks like BTC broke through the 40k mark.

My chart (4H) on MT4. (Green horizontal line is my buy, red horizontal is my current trailing SL).


----------



## noirua

Are Bitcoin miners bullish? BTC mining difficulty sees biggest bump in 3 months
					

Bitcoin sees its biggest mining difficulty increase since September.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin 1 year chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=stat...=0&width=344&height=199&min_pre=0&min_after=0


----------



## Warr87

crazy lol

at least i got a little profit on its way up lol


----------



## Joules MM1

$xbt made a 23% retrace (not quite the standard 23.6% but hey its a parabolica!)

it also found two ratios to rotate north on
....german engineering


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/4zgW5ilT/


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> $xbt made a 23% retrace (not quite the standard 23.6% but hey its a parabolica!)
> 
> it also found two ratios to rotate north on
> ....german engineering
> 
> 
> https://www.tradingview.com/x/4zgW5ilT/




getting back below 32400 price likely to speed up selling, bulls will need to cover for over margined positions


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> getting back below 32400 price likely to speed up selling, bulls will need to cover for over margined positions




mcmansion team to the rescue, nice impulsive bid


----------



## frugal.rock

Warr87 said:


> Looks like BTC broke through the 40k mark.



Broke through, now break down....
All (most?) cryptos are going for a tumble again. Gold slightly up.
What a freakin roller coaster !
5 hour bars chart. Nuts.


----------



## noirua




----------



## noirua




----------



## Warr87

frugal.rock said:


> Broke through, now break down....
> All (most?) cryptos are going for a tumble again. Gold slightly up.
> What a freakin roller coaster !
> 5 hour bars chart. Nuts.
> 
> View attachment 118186



Yup. Crazy. My EA exited yesterday. Locked in +8% of my account, but that was down from +15% I had in open profits. Unfortunately I got stopped out on a few false breakouts with ETH which negated my BTC win. Oh well. Thank God my EA was also already out of gold lol. My EAs are long only right now so im not catching the ride down but that would be a good play.


----------



## grah33

Warr87 said:


> Yup. Crazy. My EA exited yesterday. Locked in +8% of my account, but that was down from +15% I had in open profits. Unfortunately I got stopped out on a few false breakouts with ETH which negated my BTC win. Oh well. Thank God my EA was also already out of gold lol. My EAs are long only right now so im not catching the ride down but that would be a good play.




this is candlestick patterns and forex type of stuff...  i don't believe that works .  the people who make money seem to do other stuff .


it's now harder for bitcoin to double in price now as it's gone much further ,  so short term trading may have mangled it for you.  bitcoin is or was an opportunity to make great gains , for those who built up their positions earlier(can get multiples ). my impression is that short term trading on bitcoin isn't worth it (it's potentially in its infancy, unlike euro etc)


----------



## Warr87

grah33 said:


> this is candlestick patterns and forex type of stuff...  i don't believe that works .  the people who make money seem to do other stuff .
> 
> 
> it's now harder for bitcoin to double in price now as it's gone much further ,  so short term trading may have mangled it for you.  bitcoin is or was an opportunity to make great gains , for those who built up their positions earlier(can get multiples ). my impression is that short term trading on bitcoin isn't worth it (it's potentially in its infancy, unlike euro etc)




i don't understand mate, candlestick pattern stuff doesn't work? You mean technical analysis? My system runs on a breakout of the highest high over (x) period on the chart. To say people don't make money on that would be very wrong ... Donchian was famous for making a bucket load of money off that over many many years. i'm just working a trend following system. i'm not looking for patterns in the charts just breakouts of price.

i'm also not sure its fair to say short term trading on bitcoin isn't worth it? qldfrog made great gains. others did too. I also added at least 15% to my account using a 4H chart. Are you saying that those who bought a bunch of bitcoin in its infancy, who built up their positions earlier, made great gains? well obviously. if i bought and accumlated Apple stocks when it was a penny stock I would have made money ... not really sure what your point is? people could have built up a position earlier .... and it could've gone down? again, not really sure what your point is?


----------



## wayneL

Risk reward has definitely altered with this latest move, but the overarching question still remains what is the downside and what is the upside?

If anyone considers that the downside of Bitcoin is 0, then then one must consider the upside as a million dollars, still a pretty good risk-reward proposition in my opinion.


----------



## grah33

Warr87 said:


> i don't understand mate, candlestick pattern stuff doesn't work? You mean technical analysis? My system runs on a breakout of the highest high over (x) period on the chart. To say people don't make money on that would be very wrong ... Donchian was famous for making a bucket load of money off that over many many years. i'm just working a trend following system. i'm not looking for patterns in the charts just breakouts of price.
> 
> i'm also not sure its fair to say short term trading on bitcoin isn't worth it? qldfrog made great gains. others did too. I also added at least 15% to my account using a 4H chart. Are you saying that those who bought a bunch of bitcoin in its infancy, who built up their positions earlier, made great gains? well obviously. if i bought and accumlated Apple stocks when it was a penny stock I would have made money ... not really sure what your point is? people could have built up a position earlier .... and it could've gone down? again, not really sure what your point is?




no i'm not too convinced about standard tech analyses and breakout  trading in forex majors , using all the common stuff online/books. that would be too easy.  and i've followed some people in these threads (and my own experience) , and it didn't work for them (capable people ).  there is more to it i believe. the people making money seem to be looking at market depth etc ...

if it goes to 120k, or 80k in the near future, it's still a great instrument for investing.  but getting in earlier at 20 k is so much better ...

not long ago it was a lot easier for it's price to double/triple etc .  but short term trading gets you out. just my thoughts, that's all.

added: frog's recent gains seem to be from investing.  bitcoin is great for that.  but do whatever you want to


----------



## wayneL

grah33 said:


> no i'm not too convinced about standard tech analyses and breakout  trading in forex majors , using all the common stuff online/books. that would be too easy.  and i've followed some people in these threads (and my own experience) , and it didn't work for them (capable people ).  there is more to it i believe. the people making money seem to be looking at market depth etc ...
> 
> if it goes to 120k, or 80k in the near future, it's still a great instrument for investing.  but getting in earlier at 20 k is so much better ...
> 
> not long ago it was a lot easier for it's price to double/triple etc .  but short term trading gets you out. just my thoughts, that's all.
> 
> added: frog's recent gains seem to be from investing.  bitcoin is great for that.  but do whatever you want to



Agree.

Any instrument subject to government intervention doesn't seem to really respond well to technical analysis at all in terms of trading... Not short term trading anyway.

I love technical trading and it does work for me but Bitcoin comes into the basket of macro investing, even if technically it is not really subject to direct government intervention.

I do my gold and silver investing the same way, no short-term trading, taking positions when I think there is a clear long-term positive expectancy.... Like, years.


----------



## Warr87

grah33 said:


> no i'm not too convinced about standard tech analyses and breakout  trading in forex majors , using all the common stuff online/books. that would be too easy.  and i've followed some people in these threads (and my own experience) , and it didn't work for them (capable people ).  there is more to it i believe. the people making money seem to be looking at market depth etc ...
> 
> if it goes to 120k, or 80k in the near future, it's still a great instrument for investing.  but getting in earlier at 20 k is so much better ...
> 
> not long ago it was a lot easier for it's price to double/triple etc .  but short term trading gets you out. just my thoughts, that's all.
> 
> added: frog's recent gains seem to be from investing.  bitcoin is great for that.  but do whatever you want to




people definitely do it, and do it well. plenty of big fund trend followers trade over 300 markets, which includes FX. i think its naive to think that people don't use technical analysis to make money in FX .... the fact that people here who focus mostly on stocks don't do as well on FX shouldn't really be an argument against TA in FX .... 

I'm also using the Donchian system right now. It have found it is better for commodities. A lot of testing, backtesting, forward testing, has show it has worked. It also worked for Donchian himself and many of the people who learned from him. So again, I'm not really sure why you think it can't work? If it's not your style, its fine, don't use it. But declaring it doesn't work because you don't like it isn't much of an argument. The way duc trades is not my style, but he is great at it. I don't claim his way doesn't work, or that any macro or fundamental analysis doesn't work. Duc uses his macro analysis to great effect.

Obviously getting in early is much better. Aren't you just falling for a hindsight fallacy? Also can't make any on an investment if you don't get in at all, waiting for it to drop to a price you think is better. I also haven't seen any propsoal on how to get out of a trade? A lot of about getting in, but if not for technical analysis or using a defined system of rules like the donchian system, how are you defining to get out? Or is your strategy just to buy and hold?


----------



## Warr87

wayneL said:


> Agree.
> 
> Any instrument subject to government intervention doesn't seem to really respond well to technical analysis at all in terms of trading... Not short term trading anyway.
> 
> I love technical trading and it does work for me but Bitcoin comes into the basket of macro investing, even if technically it is not really subject to direct government intervention.
> 
> I do my gold and silver investing the same way, no short-term trading, taking positions when I think there is a clear long-term positive expectancy.... Like, years.




is that trading or investing? or wealth building?

To be clear, I'm not opposed to long term investments.


----------



## qldfrog

Warr87 said:


> i'm also not sure its fair to say short term trading on bitcoin isn't worth it? qldfrog made great gains. others did too



Obviously i made gain from purchasing one bitcoin over the years small bit by small bit but since putting  8k extra in november i have double it by both overall price increase but also by using buy /sell on the yoyo price.volatility is incredible...can be used😊


----------



## noirua

12 January 2021



Bitcoin starts at 8:50 minutes in

11 January 2021


----------



## DB008

Cut from one of his earlier podcasts








.​


----------



## Smurf1976

DB008 said:


> Cut from one of his earlier podcasts



In what universe can you live without food, energy or assets?

Indeed and there's the problem with inflation data, it excludes the most critical things which actually cost money.


----------



## DB008

Yep

My house price went up 10%+ this year
My LPG bottle price went up over 15%
Private health insurance up 10%

The CPI basket with a banana doesn't reflect that

2% cash rate at a bank is what Michael Saylor talks about, it's a melting ice cube. You need to be getting around 15% pa return to keep your head above water, then you need a return on top of that.


----------



## grah33

wayneL said:


> Agree.
> 
> Any instrument subject to government intervention doesn't seem to really respond well to technical analysis at all in terms of trading... Not short term trading anyway.
> 
> I love technical trading and it does work for me but Bitcoin comes into the basket of macro investing, even if technically it is not really subject to direct government intervention.
> 
> I do my gold and silver investing the same way, no short-term trading, taking positions when I think there is a clear long-term positive expectancy.... Like, years.



if tech analyses works for you with forex short term trading, then u likely weren't doing the common tech anal. stuff out there. but something else like using corelated futures contracts and volume spread , and looking at depth etc (judging from your other posts)
it helps if a person is in the right direction from the start.


----------



## grah33

Warr87 said:


> people definitely do it, and do it well. plenty of big fund trend followers trade over 300 markets, which includes FX. i think its naive to think that people don't use technical analysis to make money in FX .... the fact that people here who focus mostly on stocks don't do as well on FX shouldn't really be an argument against TA in FX ....
> 
> I'm also using the Donchian system right now. It have found it is better for commodities. A lot of testing, backtesting, forward testing, has show it has worked. It also worked for Donchian himself and many of the people who learned from him. So again, I'm not really sure why you think it can't work? If it's not your style, its fine, don't use it. But declaring it doesn't work because you don't like it isn't much of an argument. The way duc trades is not my style, but he is great at it. I don't claim his way doesn't work, or that any macro or fundamental analysis doesn't work. Duc uses his macro analysis to great effect.
> 
> Obviously getting in early is much better. Aren't you just falling for a hindsight fallacy? Also can't make any on an investment if you don't get in at all, waiting for it to drop to a price you think is better. I also haven't seen any propsoal on how to get out of a trade? A lot of about getting in, but if not for technical analysis or using a defined system of rules like the donchian system, how are you defining to get out? Or is your strategy just to buy and hold?



nah i don't' think the simple stuff works in forex and i've defiantly got nothing against it.  i just regret the time i lost learning it, i've applied myself at learning in many things  in life and i always got something back, but not with forex unfortunately.  can't comment on long term trading though (forex)

bitcoin though  is diff. might be destined to do a great run  and so the easy tech anal. stuff might work way better, so you'll see.  but it's also potentially great for investing, and even better before of course (since it was in its infancy)


----------



## Dark1975

I've been investing in crypto slowly, in btc , Xrp,eth and now xlm , I differently think we are @ the infancy stage of cypto , tho looking logically @ btc ( with regards to mining) the amounts of energy used, and also the ledger eventually controlled by China as they are the largest miners i can't see btc being a long term investment for me , eventually the largest reason that it will be frowned upon due to the large energy amounts required to mine, 
I've decided to invest more in xrp and eth 
Any thoughts ?


----------



## noirua

__





						Read More China Dominates Bitcoin Mining: Here’s Why That Needs to Change
					






					argoblockchain.com


----------



## qldfrog

this is what bitcoin is at risk with the Reset: being made illegal


so nazi, far right (obviously only far right as far left are angels), pedophiles, drug and arm dealers, dark web you name it, the propaganda is starting;
with the Reset, wealth in the west will have to be annihilated and inflation has to act as an invisible wealth tax.the game is on.Has bitcoin enough leverage to survive the attack?


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin bulls buy BTC’s $35K support retest as altcoins push higher
					

Bitcoin’s lower support retest was bought up by bulls, preparing BTC for another push to $40,000.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin chart live: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16
Time is GMT


----------



## Joules MM1

noirua said:


> Bitcoin chart live: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16
> Time is GMT




workable live chart, free; https://www.tradingview.com/
you can have it in AEST
(xbt/bitmex) example https://www.tradingview.com/x/QXn6XlpF/
carnival account: https://www.bitmex.com/


----------



## noirua

$500M in crypto futures liquidated as Bitcoin dips below $34K: What happens next?
					

The cryptocurrency market saw over $500 million worth of positions liquidated in the last 24 hours as Bitcoin price tumbled.




					cointelegraph.com
				





			https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16


----------



## noirua

Legality of cryptocurrency by country or territory - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




*permissive* (legal to use bitcoin) GREEN
*contentious* (some legal restrictions on usage of bitcoin) YELLOW
*contentious* (interpretation of old laws, but bitcoin is not prohibited directly) Mauve
*hostile* (full or partial prohibition) RED
*no data GREY 
	

		
			
		

		
	


*


----------



## qldfrog

noirua said:


> Legality of cryptocurrency by country or territory - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *permissive* (legal to use bitcoin) GREEN
> *contentious* (some legal restrictions on usage of bitcoin) YELLOW
> *contentious* (interpretation of old laws, but bitcoin is not prohibited directly) Mauve
> *hostile* (full or partial prohibition) RED
> *no data GREY
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 118581
> *



I believe the dynamics in this map will be critical.once BTC becomes illegal in a key country, this prohibition will snowball and bitcoin is an anti Reset so bad news with the US.
Unless the Tech gurus in the silicon valley leverage their power with the Biden side, BTC is cooked but do not underestimate the power of these Techs and their willingness to save personal wealth from the madness ahead.
 So my half baked BTC view...
Let's keep an eye on this map


----------



## ducati916

qldfrog said:


> I believe the dynamics in this map will be critical.once BTC becomes illegal in a key country, this prohibition will snowball and bitcoin is an anti Reset so bad news with the US.
> Unless the Tech gurus in the silicon valley leverage their power with the Biden side, BTC is cooked but do not underestimate the power of these Techs and their willingness to save personal wealth from the madness ahead.
> So my half baked BTC view...
> Let's keep an eye on this map





Mr Frog, I think there are 2 issues here:

(i) Will BTC be prohibited; and
(ii) Can that be enforced?

So historically, gold was prohibited to be held by individuals. It was however unenforceable simply because an individual could hold/hide the physical.

Re. BTC: it can (like gold) be prohibited. Can it like gold be held in secret? Given that the blockchain is extremely easy to track, I'm guessing this will not be as easy as hiding gold at the bottom of the garden beneath the gnome from Zurich?

jog on
duc


----------



## qldfrog

ducati916 said:


> Mr Frog, I think there are 2 issues here:
> 
> (i) Will BTC be prohibited; and
> (ii) Can that be enforced?
> 
> So historically, gold was prohibited to be held by individuals. It was however unenforceable simply because an individual could hold/hide the physical.
> 
> Re. BTC: it can (like gold) be prohibited. Can it like gold be held in secret? Given that the blockchain is extremely easy to track, I'm guessing this will not be as easy as hiding gold at the bottom of the garden beneath the gnome from Zurich?
> 
> jog on
> duc



Can it be held in secret?
The BTC i already own and are on a physical media probably, but in the west as in China, now, all internet traffic can/is recorded and to buy sell bitcoin you need to connect to a site somewhere.
by definition, blockchain can not work from 1 computer to another so it needs a network of computers
So you can not transfer a BTC from one smartphone to another using bluetooth or similar.
Should btc become illegal tomorrow in Australia, the only way you could bypass it if monitored would be to transmit your *whole* portfolio either as a memory stick and or password/secret key... Via pigeon mail or physical mean
Highly difficult.so indeed while cryptos are encrypted, their Achilles point is the buy sell process. Which does need a networked and so spyable transaction .
Gold much better


----------



## noirua

When the markets turn down, leveraged long positions quickly turn into a loss, resulting in margin calls from brokers. When the margin requirements are not met, the brokers dump the positions at market price, leading to a sharp plunge.


----------



## noirua

Bullish or bearish? PayPal hosts $242M in crypto trading over 24 hours
					

Retail crypto traders appear to have converged around PayPal, with the platform reporting record daily volume exceeding $240 million.




					cointelegraph.com
				











						Hedge fund predicts $115K Bitcoin price and the fall of ‘speculative’ altcoins
					

Analysts say Bitcoin and Ether’s growing dominance of the crypto market are signals that the current bull market is drastically different than the last one.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Offtopic really but an interesting coin mined by Argo Blockchain and others. 

Zcash began its journey as a fork from the Bitcoin blockchain on Oct. 28, 2016. It takes a focus on providing better privacy for users through zero-knowledge cryptography dubbed zk-SNARKs and is developed by the Electric Coin Company (ECC).

Live charts
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=coin^zecusd&width=233&height=190&p=0&t=1&vol=0


			https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=coin^zecusd&width=233&height=190&p=5&t=1&vol=0
		


Pricing: https://www.coindesk.com/price/zcash








						Zcash Undergoes First Halving as Major Upgrade Drops 'Founders Reward'
					

Along with the halving, Zcash has rolled out its Canopy upgrade that replaces the Founders Reward with built-in funding for development.




					www.coindesk.com


----------



## noirua

Russia's largest Bitcoin mine: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-11-24/seo-inside-russia-s-largest-bitcoin-mine


----------



## qldfrog

noirua said:


> Russia's largest Bitcoin mine: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-11-24/seo-inside-russia-s-largest-bitcoin-mine
> View attachment 118687



what do you need for mining, some infrastructure, cold weather to reduce cooling costs, and cheap energy wo green regulation/carbon tax: China, Russia, Iceland and Canada/US potentially but with less future


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin and altcoins correct after Yellen’s ‘illicit financing’ critique
					

Janet Yellen’s crypto critical comments put a damper on the wider market just as Ethereum price reached a new all-time high.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Despite today’s slight correction, institutional investors are still bullish on Bitcoin’s long term prospects. A recent projection from hedge fund Vailshire Capital Management called for an “imminent breakout” and PlanB, the creator of the popular Stock-to-Flow model, has predicted that Bitcoin price could close the month near $48,000.








						Bitcoin breakout 'imminent' says hedge fund as analyst targets $48K monthly close
					

Both Bitcoin's fundamentals and analysis of on-chain indicators are "wildly bullish," says Vailshire Capital Management, with BTC price reaching three-day highs.




					cointelegraph.com
				



"A larger monthly jump to #bitcoin $48K would create a nice gap between monthly dots. These gaps usually mark the point of no return (red arrows), i.c. the phase transition to #phase5," he commented while uploading the chart to Twitter.


----------



## noirua

President Biden freezes FinCEN's proposed crypto wallet regulations
					

All Federal regulatory processes have been frozen by Joe Biden, including those nasty self-hosted crypto wallet rules.




					cointelegraph.com
				





> “First, anyone is better than Secretary Mnuchin, who decided long ago that he hated everything about crypto. Second, although Dr. Yellen may not be a fan now, I expect she'll be open to learning & listening, & will follow regular order in deciding on new regulations. That's good.”


----------



## noirua

BitMEX operator joins digital finance standards and advocacy organization
					

BitMEX’s parent company 100x Group has joined Global Digital Finance, to collaborate with the public and private sector to drive mainstream adoption for crypto.




					cointelegraph.com
				



BitMEX has been struggling to boost its regulatory and compliance efforts since the action was brought. On Jan. 12, the company announced a new collaboration with blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis to “identify, investigate, and stop illicit transactions.” Earlier in January, BitMEX claimed that its entire user base completed the obligatory Know Your Customer checks.








						More institutions will warm up to crypto once market cap hits $2T: eToro
					

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization passed $1 trillion for the first time earlier this month — and a new report commissioned by eToro has suggestions on how to double it.




					cointelegraph.com
				



“Only by widening the playing field and facilitating more participation will crypto reach and maintain a market cap of $2 trillion and beyond.”


----------



## noirua

Senate committee votes unanimously in favor of Yellen as Treasury Secretary
					

Janet Yellen appears to be on track to earn the Treasury Secretary nomination, pending a full Senate vote.




					cointelegraph.com
				



The cryptocurrency industry has been following Yellen’s nomination process closely. The former Fed chief has given mixed signals on digital assets. On one hand, she has touted Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets as an important innovation in optimizing global transactions. On the other, she has raised concerns over crypto’s role in money laundering and illicit financing.


----------



## noirua

Bahrain central bank licenses Sharia-compliant crypto exchange
					

CoinMENA, a soon-to-launch cryptocurrency exchange headquartered in Bahrain, has obtained a license from the Central Bank of Bahrain.




					cointelegraph.com
				



At the launch, CoinMENA will support five major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), XRP, Litecoin (LTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH). The exchange will also feature an over-the-counter, or OTC, platform for larger transactions, providing customers with a dedicated manager overseeing every OTC trade.


----------



## noirua

Cryptocurrency makes World Economic Forum's Davos Agenda
					

The World Economic Forum's upcoming Davos Agenda devotes considerable time to cryptocurrency.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Thursday’s group features four speakers, including Tharman Shanmugaratnam, a senior minister for the government of Singapore, and Zhu Min, chairman of the Beijing-based National Institute of Financial Research.


----------



## noirua

As Bitcoin price sees sub-$30K, do bears control the BTC market now?
					






					cointelegraph.com
				



The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating under $33,000 following the steep rejection of $35,000. As BTC stagnates, traders are considering both bear and bull cases in the near term. For now, traders are seemingly leaning toward the bearish scenario as Bitcoin struggles to quickly rebound from the crucial $29,314 support area.

Bitcoin Price: https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin price dips below $30K but here’s why pro traders are still bullish​







						Bitcoin price dips below $30K but here’s why pro traders are still bullish
					

Data shows pro traders are still bullish even as Bitcoin price dips below $30,000 and Friday’s $4 billion BTC options expiry approaches.




					cointelegraph.com
				


Despite the record-high $4 billion options expiry being just two days away, both bull and bear sides traded similar sizes today.


----------



## noirua

Markets in the USA are crazy at the moment as investors chase one gambling stock in efforts, so far successful, in smashing the major shorters in the market now down billions of dollars.
Much of this dosh should find itself targeting gold, silver, and Bitcoin.


----------



## qldfrog

noirua said:


> Markets in the USA are crazy at the moment as investors chase one gambling stock in efforts, so far successful, in smashing the major shorters in the market now down billions of dollars.
> Much of this dosh should find itself targeting gold, silver, and Bitcoin.



Btc jumping up...


----------



## verce

Looks like Elon Musk is at it again. This is going to get very interesting. Buckle up.


----------



## noirua

Looks like Elon Musk is at it again. This is going to get very interesting. Buckle up.








						World's richest man Elon Musk boosts Bitcoin price by 20% — Is $40K back in play?
					

The price of Bitcoin has seemingly broken out from its recent slump.




					cointelegraph.com
				



However, this tweet and profile change from Elon Musk prompted a new rally on Jan. 29 with price surging from $32,500 to $38,000 in a matter of minutes. The primary questions now are: does this mean the bull market is continuing and will BTC see new all-time highs?


----------



## vluu75

Hi,

I'm vluu75, new to the forum and looking to start trading in cryptocurrencies. Is there a course or someone worthwhile following anyone can recommend?

All your help is appreciated.


----------



## noirua

BTC billionaire Tim Draper to Elon Musk: I'd buy the Tesla Cybertruck with Bitcoin
					

Tim Draper offers Elon Musk to accept Bitcoin for the Tesla Cybertruck.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Many speculated that Musk could have been the high-net-worth investor behind the massive Bitcoin accumulation on Coinbase in the past week.


----------



## noirua

Could bitcoin could become the next 'great tech stock' of the decade? Yes, but it will take more than the buy-in of the retail army to get it there, an investment chief says
					

In order for bitcoin to hit $125,000, "it's going to require institutional capital," Messing said. "Retail can't get it there."




					markets.businessinsider.com
				



Bitcoin could become what Tesla, Facebook, and Google were for the last decade, according to Brett Messing, partner, and chief operating officer at Skybridge Capital.

According to him, there are two potential outcomes for the digital token in the near future: either it could remain a niche asset and trade between $5,000 and $50,000, or it could grow to be a "real asset" that could easily hit as much as $500,000.


----------



## noirua

30 January 2021
Citibank forecasts $600,000 for Bitcoin. Not that far off A$1 million per coin.


----------



## noirua

21Shares to list Polkadot ETP on Swiss SIX exchange
					

21Shares, a major provider of cryptocurrency exchange-traded products, is launching the world’s first Polkadot ETP.




					cointelegraph.com
				



The new ETP comes shortly after Polkadot was added to 21Shares’ major ETP product Crypto Basket ETP (HODL) on Jan. 29. Tracking five major cryptos like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), HODL has removed Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and is now listing Polkadot as the second-largest constituent after Bitcoin.


----------



## noirua

Corporate buy-ins could take Bitcoin price over $500K — report
					

Corporate buyers have the power to make Bitcoin surge past $500,000, new predictions from Ark Invest suggest.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Bitcoin (BTC) could fetch at least a $535,000 price tag if corporate buyers convert 10% of their cash reserves to the largest cryptocurrency.


----------



## noirua

Grayscale may jumpstart the next phase of the Bitcoin bull run tomorrow
					

Grayscale could well be the kindling for a fresh Bitcoin inferno this month thanks to GBTC.




					cointelegraph.com
				



With the next unlocking set for Feb. 3, anticipation should be building for a continuation of the Bitcoin bull run.
In late December, a dedicated article in technology magazine Hackernoon explained the phenomenon as being tied to releases of GBTC shares which have been subject to a customary lock-up.
Once they are released, Bitcoin tends to shoot higher as customers put their profits back into BTC, while the time preceding such events corresponds to a lack of price action.


----------



## noirua

Argo Blockchain stands to benefit from future booms in Bitcoin price
					

The Argo Blockchain share price has been off to the races since December as more of a premium is placed on Bitcoin and on its makers.




					www.thearmchairtrader.com
				



This is only likely to increase over the coming weeks as the likes of *Elon Musk* and hedge fund billionaire Ray *Dalio* show themselves to be in favour of cryptocurrencies. A single word on Twitter from Elon Musk last week, #bitcoin, sent the market soaring up 20%, at least for a period of time.
The number of new subscribers in the cryptocurrency market on Reddit, the platform that was the jumping-off point for the GameStop rally, has been increasing by between 20,000 and 30,000 per week bringing the total to above 150,000. Last week alone crypto subreddits have increased by 500% and new traders seem to be positioning themselves to push Bitcoin higher the same way they did with GameStop, aiming to trigger hedge fund shorts’ stop losses.


----------



## noirua

Swiss Companies Issue First Tokenized Asset for Trading Under New National Blockchain Rules – Blockchain Bitcoin News
					

New legal provisions on distributed ledger technology (DLT) went into effect on Feb. 1 in Switzerland. After the implementation, two local companies announced that they had issued the first tokenized asset under the brand-new law.




					news.bitcoin.com


----------



## noirua

'Ur welcome' — DOGE soars after Elon Musk returns to Twitter... to shill Dogecoin
					

Elon Musk returns to Twitter to talk about Dogecoin, causing major price spikes.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Musk removes "Bitcoin" from Twitter bio​


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin Price Predictions: Here’s How Bitcoin Could One Day Hit $600,000​








						Bitcoin Price Predictions: Here's How Bitcoin Could One Day Hit $600,000
					

The latest Bitcoin price predictions call for the crypto to hit $600,000 as mainstream support grows. Here's what you should know now.




					investorplace.com
				




Bitcoin live chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16


----------



## qldfrog

Slightly related, interesting reading in my view,part of the Reset and putting the masses back in line.how dares he?
https://www-vanityfair-com.cdn.ampp...-fall-of-bitcoin-billionaire-arthur-hayes/amp


----------



## greggles

Tesla reveals it has invested $US1.5 billion into Bitcoin.









						Tesla invests $US1.5b in bitcoin, sending its price to the moon
					

The famously volatile bitcoin has surged to its most expensive levels ever, thanks (in part) to the world's richest man Elon Musk talking it up, along with Tesla's $1.5 billion investment in the cryptocurrency.




					www.abc.net.au
				




This is going to inject some real confidence into the idea of Bitcoin as a legitimate currency. If Elon is in, a lot of other people are also going to feel confident getting in.


----------



## grah33

greggles said:


> Tesla reveals it has invested $US1.5 billion into Bitcoin.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tesla invests $US1.5b in bitcoin, sending its price to the moon
> 
> 
> The famously volatile bitcoin has surged to its most expensive levels ever, thanks (in part) to the world's richest man Elon Musk talking it up, along with Tesla's $1.5 billion investment in the cryptocurrency.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.abc.net.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is going to inject some real confidence into the idea of Bitcoin as a legitimate currency. If Elon is in, a lot of other people are also going to feel confident getting in.



perhaps now is a good time to go in again


----------



## Warr87

If I was into buy-and-hold, may be a good idea to add a few other coins too (like ETH or similar). I used to buy-and-hold DGB and a few other misc coins (still have them but not accumlating them. will liquidate them at some point).


----------



## noirua

Max Keiser Says Parabolic Bitcoin Rally Is Saving Investors From Fiat Money Bonfire - The Daily Hodl
					

Wall Street veteran and Bitcoin firebrand Max Keiser says Bitcoin is rescuing investors from the destruction of value due to the excess printing of money.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## noirua

More People HODLing Bitcoin Hurts Case for Buying, Selling With It, Says Morgan Stanley
					

Addresses holding amounts of bitcoin worth more than $1 million are on the rise.




					www.coindesk.com
				



Ruchir Sharma, Morgan Stanley’s head of emerging markets and chief global strategist, echoed this view in a bullish new blog post, in which he suggests bitcoin could replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.


----------



## grah33

Makes better sense to me now.  The blockchain doesn't 'register' wallets, or public addresses.  It just records them, whether they're real or not


----------



## noirua

A useful questionnaire and answers from the CEO of a mining company in Bitcoin and Zcash.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/argo-blockchain/id1193668018?i=1000508424371&at=1l3vwYf


----------



## moXJO

Coin analysis data. Not sure how legit but might help someone:

https://cointobuy.io/

Function to see which coins may return the most profits. *No idea if the data is legit*


----------



## noirua

Hits the rising trend line once again.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin goes mainstream as institutions hold 3% of BTC’s circulating supply
					

The growing appetite of institutional investors means companies now hold more than 460,000 BTC, which is 3% of the total supply in circulation.




					cointelegraph.com
				



This week's move caused BTC's market capitalization to surpass Tesla's, reaching the ninth position among all tradable assets.


----------



## DB008

BTC has been the trade of the decade, and will continue to be the trade of the decade. 

Think about this, the last BTC to be ever mined will take 40 years to mine....


----------



## moXJO

Just saw crypto on the front page of AFR. Expect a massive crash from here


----------



## grah33

moXJO said:


> Just saw crypto on the front page of AFR. Expect a massive crash from here



afr?


U really think it would crash, after musk went in recently?


----------



## grah33

just sorting stuff out.  if i make a private/public key, for offline (paper wallet).  then i would do a send operation from the exchange to my public address.  and it would register, without even knowing about my newly made wallet?


----------



## moXJO

Australian financial review.


----------



## qldfrog

grah33 said:


> just sorting stuff out.  if i make a private/public key, for offline (paper wallet).  then i would do a send operation from the exchange to my public address.  and it would register, without even knowing about my newly made wallet?



I would think so,even if i am no expert...


----------



## greggles

Elon Musk going in to the tune of $1.5 billion has made Bitcoin mainstream. Every man and his dog are now buying Bitcoin and many of those holding are hanging on rather than selling as there is a general perception that more gains are to come.

Personally, I think it will go a lot higher than US$50,000 this year. It's certainly been an incredible recovery from its lows. If COVID-19 had never happened, there is no way Bitcoin would be where it is now.


----------



## grah33

qldfrog said:


> I would think so,even if i am no expert...



well i did a 30 dollar minimum amount transfer the other day and it's still not there. might take longer.   still less than 24 hours right now


i might try paper wallets to get into it gradually.   i can just print it out after e.g. 2 years to preserve the writing, if  i need to.

this currency is fascinating .  just like a cba account, but crypto passwords...  and it's a currency too.  i suppose later if it takes off we'll have our own cards (like credit cards), swiping the keys to collect goods.  and if it takes off, corps etc. will have a vested interest in extending the network everywhere .it's their money, they'll look after it, and keep it running.  but the criminal  advantages it brings are  a serious issue... the dollar is crumbling,  and we seem to be heading into a darker future , so bitcoin may fit in quite well.


it's better to have a currency which is transparent and  looked after by good government, but that's not happening, so the players are coming here


----------



## noirua

17 February 2021


----------



## noirua

February 17 2021


----------



## qldfrog

Above 50k we are this week.amazing


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin Live Chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=24
Hits $56,000.


----------



## noirua

NASDAQ: RIOT: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=N^RIOT&t=1&p=0&dm=0&vol=0&width=405&height=217&min_pre=330&min_after=240
NASDAQ: MARA: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=N^MARA&t=1&p=0&dm=0&vol=0&width=405&height=217&min_pre=405&min_after=280
NASDAQ: CAN: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=N^CAN&t=1&p=0&dm=0&vol=0&width=405&height=217&min_pre=405&min_after=240


----------



## noirua

BlackRock’s Rick Rieder says the world's largest asset manager has 'started to dabble' in bitcoin
					

Rick Rieder, BlackRock's chief investment officer of global fixed income, told CNBC there's a growing acceptance that bitcoin should be part of a portfolio.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## noirua

Courtesy of 'horneblower' on another domain website.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin dips below $48,000 as nearly $6 billion in crypto futures are liquidated
					

The price of bitcoin has dipped below $48,000 from nearly $57,500 on Monday as derivatives positions worth almost $6 billion get force liquidated by crypto exchanges.




					www.theblockcrypto.com
				




More than 645,000 traders were liquidated in the last 24 hours, and the largest single liquidation order happened on Huobi for bitcoin, valued at $20.66 million, according to Bybt.

In the last 24 hours, $5.65 billion worth of open interest was liquidated by crypto exchanges, according to tracker Bybt.com. In other words, crypto exchanges liquidated traders' overleveraged positions.


----------



## qldfrog

so sold 0.2BTC at $73k AUD..not a bad timing, bought back half of this at $61k and another order for 0.1 at $52k 



As seen in chart, $58k is kind of a support next down is $52k ish so my reenter orders, obviously with the AUD/USD playing around, I had to give some margins
And if I am wrong about rebound, 40k the next stage but I do not believe that


----------



## moXJO

qldfrog said:


> so sold 0.2BTC at $73k AUD..not a bad timing, bought back half of this at $61k and another order for 0.1 at $52k
> 
> View attachment 120518
> 
> As seen in chart, $58k is kind of a support next down is $52k ish so my reenter orders, obviously with the AUD/USD playing around, I had to give some margins
> And if I am wrong about rebound, 40k the next stage but I do not believe that



I'd like to see $30k, but good luck to me.


----------



## moXJO

noirua said:


> Bitcoin dips below $48,000 as nearly $6 billion in crypto futures are liquidated
> 
> 
> The price of bitcoin has dipped below $48,000 from nearly $57,500 on Monday as derivatives positions worth almost $6 billion get force liquidated by crypto exchanges.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theblockcrypto.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> More than 645,000 traders were liquidated in the last 24 hours, and the largest single liquidation order happened on Huobi for bitcoin, valued at $20.66 million, according to Bybt.
> 
> In the last 24 hours, $5.65 billion worth of open interest was liquidated by crypto exchanges, according to tracker Bybt.com. In other words, crypto exchanges liquidated traders' overleveraged positions.



I was watching the action and was wondering if something like this was happening.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

My take on BTC.

gg


----------



## qldfrog

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My take on BTC.
> 
> gg




but tulips are great for the sellers of bulbs and cut flowers before the end of summer ;-)


----------



## Country Lad

Oh dear, poor Elon.

_The slump in bitcoin's value, along with Tesla's falling share price, have shaved $US15.2 billion ($19.2 billion) off Elon Musk's net worth, causing him to lose his title as the "world’s richest person".

Mr Musk's downgrade on the rich list was, in part, due to his tweets over the weekend that the price of cryptocurrencies bitcoin and ethereum "do seem high lol".

The Tesla CEO's comments about the "high" price of bitcoin came two weeks after his electric car company said it had invested $US1.5 billion in the volatile digital currency, and would accept it as a payment method in the "near future".

"While Tesla on paper made roughly $US1 billion on bitcoin in a month that exceeded all its EV [electric vehicle] profits from 2020, the recent 48 hour sell off in bitcoin and added volatility has driven some investors to the exits on this name in the near-term," he said._


----------



## BlindSquirrel

That sounds like an opportunity to get in... on Microstrategy.


----------



## Dark1975

qldfrog said:


> so sold 0.2BTC at $73k AUD..not a bad timing, bought back half of this at $61k and another order for 0.1 at $52k
> 
> View attachment 120518
> 
> As seen in chart, $58k is kind of a support next down is $52k ish so my reenter orders, obviously with the AUD/USD playing around, I had to give some margins
> And if I am wrong about rebound, 40k the next stage but I do not believe that



Nice work Mr frog
I also bought alot of BNB all the way from $280 - $250 in 5k lots, it was way , oversold,
Also was a good time to buy XRP (pendind SEC Case) could be a good return if they win


----------



## BlindSquirrel

I had a trailing buy order on BTC that activated at 49k. Not too shabby. Even if it dumps to 30k I will buy more, eth too.

(This is one of the first times I've been cashed up for a retrace!)


----------



## grah33

Country Lad said:


> Oh dear, poor Elon.
> 
> _The slump in bitcoin's value, along with Tesla's falling share price, have shaved $US15.2 billion ($19.2 billion) off Elon Musk's net worth, causing him to lose his title as the "world’s richest person".
> 
> Mr Musk's downgrade on the rich list was, in part, due to his tweets over the weekend that the price of cryptocurrencies bitcoin and ethereum "do seem high lol".
> 
> The Tesla CEO's comments about the "high" price of bitcoin came two weeks after his electric car company said it had invested $US1.5 billion in the volatile digital currency, and would accept it as a payment method in the "near future".
> 
> "While Tesla on paper made roughly $US1 billion on bitcoin in a month that exceeded all its EV [electric vehicle] profits from 2020, the recent 48 hour sell off in bitcoin and added volatility has driven some investors to the exits on this name in the near-term," he said._



but the current bitcoin price is still higher than Elon's entry


----------



## Dark1975

Just sold my BNB $354 ,,, bought on average between $253- $284 (average was $261 )
When i starting buying @ 1am to 2.30am this morning,I bought them in 5k lots, each $5 dollar move down I bought a 5k lot(alot of blocks) 15hrs later 30% 😍, OH how I love volatility, especially crypto markets, So much green traders panic selling on one man's tweet ...lol.
Ready for the next leg down ,😉


----------



## ducati916

For the Bulls...any concerns?




jog on
duc


----------



## Dark1975

Last leg down was in 2 movements on the 24hr time frame , first retraction was 54.5 down to 40k on first leg
Therefore 14.5/54 = 26% retraction followed by a second retraction to 38k 3 days later before it proceeds to new heights,
Will this last retraction follow suit !
It went from 75k down 58ish = 17/75 = 22% retraction , could possibly play out to second leg down before we test new heights?
Well I'm only 9% in holding , 91% cash ,
My bet is another retraction, tho i could be totally wrong ?
Either way I can plan moving forward to another plan after 3-4 days if this doesn't eventuate
Pls note : this is purely speculation, and not any financial advice ,
Pls DYOR
P.S: Sorry for the bad attachment , was edited on my smart phone (rushed)


----------



## Lucky777

I’m interested in putting a small position for long term hold, what platforms are you guys using?


----------



## qldfrog

Lucky777 said:


> I’m interested in putting a small position for long term hold, what platforms are you guys using?



Btcmarket :happy with them, australian


----------



## grah33

Dark1975 said:


> Last leg down was in 2 movements on the 24hr time frame , first retraction was 54.5 down to 40k on first leg
> Therefore 14.5/54 = 26% retraction followed by a second retraction to 38k 3 days later before it proceeds to new heights,
> Will this last retraction follow suit !
> It went from 75k down 58ish = 17/75 = 22% retraction , could possibly play out to second leg down before we test new heights?
> Well I'm only 9% in holding , 91% cash ,
> My bet is another retraction, tho i could be totally wrong ?
> Either way I can plan moving forward to another plan after 3-4 days if this doesn't eventuate
> Pls note : this is purely speculation, and not any financial advice ,
> Pls DYOR
> P.S: Sorry for the bad attachment , was edited on my smart phone (rushed)



yeah  really dk ... i'm guessing will go further down before making a new high.  might oscillate some though first


----------



## moXJO

Btc market is what I use for the basics, along with binance to trade smaller coins or more complex strategies. Also have coinspot.


----------



## Dark1975

Lucky777 said:


> I’m interested in putting a small position for long term hold, what platforms are you guys using?



Swyftx  0.4% spreads, best in current aussie exchanges / compared to coinspot which us roughly 1.4% spread, If you are looking longterm investment , probaly look at cold storage wallets ( titanium) 😏


----------



## grah33

qldfrog said:


> Btcmarket :happy with them, australian



the charting software looks good  with the candles and volume (i like that)

that nano thing you got seems good, but one has be careful they don't find and use any existing preprogrammed seed phrase...  but it should be okay. i suppose i would just send a little into it and then back out of it to make sure it works both ways. then send in pieces . and maybe send a little back out again


----------



## grah33

c


Lucky777 said:


> I’m interested in putting a small position for long term hold, what platforms are you guys using?



Coinspot seems popular and the interface is simple to use.  just the chat que waiting times were rather long


----------



## moXJO

Dark1975 said:


> Swyftx  0.4% spreads, best in current aussie exchanges / compared to coinspot which us roughly 1.4% spread, If you are looking longterm investment , probaly look at cold storage wallets ( titanium) 😏



Coinspots a bit of a rip. Sure it was the first acct I could find back in the day.


----------



## Dark1975

moXJO said:


> Coinspots a bit of a rip. Sure it was the first acct I could find back in the day.



Yeah my first account was there too, then after realised how bad there spreads were.
Tho great platform that I still use to quickly gage all crypto,


----------



## qldfrog

grah33 said:


> the charting software looks good  with the candles and volume (i like that)
> 
> that nano thing you got seems good, but one has be careful they don't find and use any existing preprogrammed seed phrase...  but it should be okay. i suppose i would just send a little into it and then back out of it to make sure it works both ways. then send in pieces . and maybe send a little back out again



I did that...worked, still a bit uneasy when a btc is now 73k..., Ok to play with a few k, but that starts being the price of a nice car...


----------



## Lucky777

Coinbase IPO, any thoughts on this?


----------



## Dark1975

Lucky777 said:


> Coinbase IPO, any thoughts on this?



One of the best IPO's coming , tho retail investors can't subscribe pre trading , we will have to wait till its launch date, getting launched differently this IPO as they went directly to SEC,
Short term , alot of retail investors will be gobbling this up initially expect 200% min going on past IPO's like snowflake,
Tho not sure of the prices as yet to be determined, there's speculation of $300 per share ,
For me personally I will not rush in on this due to the current time frames, and wait for the dust to settle before buying in, tho for me a long term hold, due to the future scene's of cypto will be massive, coinbase being one of the largest exchanges with low overheads and % on transactions, great company for the future


----------



## Lucky777

Dark1975 said:


> One of the best IPO's coming , tho retail investors can't subscribe pre trading , we will have to wait till its launch date, getting launched differently this IPO as they went directly to SEC,
> Short term , alot of retail investors will be gobbling this up initially expect 200% min going on past IPO's like snowflake,
> Tho not sure of the prices as yet to be determined, there's speculation of $300 per share ,
> For me personally I will not rush in on this due to the current time frames, and wait for the dust to settle before buying in, tho for me a long term hold, due to the future scene's of cypto will be massive, coinbase being one of the largest exchanges with low overheads and % on transactions, great company for the future



Chamath’s tweets on this


----------



## Dark1975

Lucky777 said:


> Chamath’s tweets on this



That's rich coming from him lol, cause he didn't get a piece of the pie, I think its smart move from coinbase, why do you need a broker to sell this company?
It sells it self, and coinbase will make more money than paying a middleman,
I agree with his logic, and I'm stoic , so i won't get upset with coinbase going direct.
Just accept its a smart business move, and I will wait 😏


----------



## grah33

qldfrog said:


> I did that...worked, still a bit uneasy when a btc is now 73k..., Ok to play with a few k, but that starts being the price of a nice car...



it should work, always ... hopefully ...


----------



## Dark1975

Good opportunity to buy more bnb for a short term trade, part 2


----------



## grah33

qldfrog said:


> I did that...worked, still a bit uneasy when a btc is now 73k..., Ok to play with a few k, but that starts being the price of a nice car...



should add that your device would have some kind of "check seed phrase" feature, so you can check that your written backup of it is correct.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin Live chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16


----------



## noirua

Dubai-Based Crypto Fund Selling $750,000,000 in Bitcoin To Buy Two Altcoins - The Daily Hodl
					

A crypto investment firm with $1 billion in assets under management is selling Bitcoin to boost its position in two of the largest altcoins by market cap.




					dailyhodl.com
				



Chand says the firm intends to sell $750 million in Bitcoin in order to increase its exposure to Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (DOT), which he believes are the foundation of the new internet and Web 3.0.


----------



## noirua

Crypto Bull Mike Novogratz Dramatically Increases Bitcoin Price Forecast for End of 2021 - The Daily Hodl
					

Mike Novogratz, CEO of crypto management firm Galaxy Digital, is dramatically pushing up his bullish price prediction for Bitcoin.




					dailyhodl.com
				



_“It feels like we’re going to consolidate a little bit here in this $50,000 area, caught [between] $42,000 to $60,000 but then the next big leg is up to $100,000, and that wouldn’t surprise me at all if we crack a hundred by the end of the year.”_


----------



## joeno

This is why retail investors always get rooted. Nobody talked about Bitcoin when it was $5000 last 2 years when it the price was relatively "low". Now that it's gone up 1000% in a matter of months and famous people are talking about it - apparently this is when all of us plebeians are supposed to buy. Lol.

Rich folks - secretly accumulates without saying anything
Poor folks - now buy high sell low!


----------



## moXJO

moXJO said:


> Just saw crypto on the front page of AFR. Expect a massive crash from here






joeno said:


> This is why retail investors always get rooted. Nobody talked about Bitcoin when it was $5000 last 2 years when it the price was relatively "low". Now that it's gone up 1000% in a matter of months and famous people are talking about it - apparently this is when all of us plebeians are supposed to buy. Lol.
> 
> Rich folks - secretly accumulates without saying anything
> Poor folks - now buy high sell low!




Seeing it in the financial review always means we are due for a correction. Joeno speaks the truth.


----------



## Warr87

joeno said:


> This is why retail investors always get rooted. Nobody talked about Bitcoin when it was $5000 last 2 years when it the price was relatively "low". Now that it's gone up 1000% in a matter of months and famous people are talking about it - apparently this is when all of us plebeians are supposed to buy. Lol.
> 
> Rich folks - secretly accumulates without saying anything
> Poor folks - now buy high sell low!



People were talking about BTC long before it reached 5000. It would have been good if you bought it at 50c. Or even 10c. But im not sure what your point is.

Buy high, sell higher. Worked for many trend traders.


----------



## Trendnomics

Intrinsic value?


----------



## Smurf1976

joeno said:


> apparently this is when all of us plebeians are supposed to buy



If you're going to trade news then it's a contrary signal.

Buy what the media says is stuffed, sell what they proclaim to be the holy grail.


----------



## qldfrog

Trendnomics said:


> Intrinsic value?



as much as Tesla


----------



## noirua

Retail Goliath Rakuten Now Allows Users To Pay With Bitcoin, Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash - The Daily Hodl
					

Japanese e-commerce titan Rakuten is now allowing customers to pay with Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).




					dailyhodl.com
				



The integration will allow customers to seamlessly convert their crypto into Rakuten Cash tokens which can then be spent at merchants.


----------



## noirua

Whales Are Preparing for Bitcoin and Ethereum Rallies As Four Altcoins Outperform the Market: Santiment - The Daily Hodl
					

In a new report on market conditions, crypto analytics firm Santiment says large Bitcoin and Ethereum holders appear to be readying themselves for a rally.




					dailyhodl.com
				



Santiment says individuals holding 1,000 or more Bitcoin are dominating a larger share of the BTC market, indicating that whales may be on the verge of fueling a strong reversal upward.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin Breakout Signal Shows Top Crypto Likely Heading to $100,000 As Investors Choose BTC Over Gold: Bloomberg Analyst - The Daily Hodl
					

Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, says Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be heading to $100,000 as it edges closer to replacing gold as a reserve asset.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin Whales Move $1,450,000,000 in BTC in Just 24 Hours – Here's Where the Crypto Is Heading - The Daily Hodl
					

Large crypto holders are moving massive amounts of Bitcoin amid the market downturn. A total of $1.45 billion has been transferred in just 24-hours, according to blockchain tracker Whale Alert.




					dailyhodl.com
				



The biggest movement sent 13,071 BTC worth $673.8 million in a single transaction. The giant Bitcoin holder in question moved the flagship crypto-asset between two unknown wallets.


----------



## noirua

__





						BLOK Holdings - Amplify ETFs
					






					amplifyetfs.com


----------



## noirua

Analyst Who Called Bitcoin and Crypto Correction Says Market Gearing Up To Explode – Here's His Timeline - The Daily Hodl
					

Analyst and trader Michaël van de Poppe is assessing the crypto markets and says the sector is gradually gearing up for another massive bull run.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## Dark1975

I was seeing a heads and shoulders appearing for btc and was a bit cautious of a retraction,
Tho after seeing the stimulas approved 7hrs ago
I started buying more crypto today , xrp /bnb/uniswap alot of defi , with the stimulus approved, i guess people with there usd cheques will pump crypto, and think people will invest in btc as it appears a better investment than the Usd atm.


----------



## againsthegrain

Dark1975 said:


> I was seeing a heads and shoulders appearing for btc and was a bit cautious of a retraction,
> Tho after seeing the stimulas approved 7hrs ago
> I started buying more crypto today , xrp /bnb/uniswap alot of defi , with the stimulus approved, i guess people with there usd cheques will pump crypto, and think people will invest in btc as it appears a better investment than the Usd atm.




Interesting choice with xrp and no ada on the list,  I realise xrp 'might' run if the court case(s) are won but looks to be dragging on.  However with FD7 Ventures planning to sell $750 million of btc to acquire ada/polkadot I bet on ada as a short term gamble rather then xrp.

Myself apart from some ada im loading up on gold, physical mainly but picked up a miner too.


----------



## Dark1975

againsthegrain said:


> Interesting choice with xrp and no ada on the list,  I realise xrp 'might' run if the court case(s) are won but looks to be dragging on.  However with FD7 Ventures planning to sell $750 million of btc to acquire ada/polkadot I bet on ada as a short term gamble rather then xrp.
> 
> Myself apart from some ada im loading up on gold, physical mainly but picked up a miner too.



Actually forgot to mention  Ada (do hold a small amount )
But I really see Xrp really the only coin atm to replace  S.w.i.f.t  once this Sec Case is over.

If you do a deep dive , companies like the gates foundation/ alot of banks are on board already .
Pls note : I am a  holder of Xrp ,
Pls DYOR, and this isn't any finacial advice


----------



## againsthegrain

Dark1975 said:


> Actually forgot to mention  Ada (do hold a small amount )
> But I really see Xrp really the only coin atm to replace  S.w.i.f.t  once this Sec Case is over.
> 
> If you do a deep dive , companies like the gates foundation/ alot of banks are on board already .
> Pls note : I am a large holder of Xrp ,
> Pls DYOR, and this isn't any finacial advice




Interesting,  I have been thinking to pick up some xrp to average down my ridiculous entry back from 2017.  If the case goes well could be regretting not watering down my holding at today's prices. 

Any idea on the progress on the sec case?  As far as I remember late Feb was a date but nothing big happened or I didn't dig deep enough.


----------



## Dark1975

againsthegrain said:


> Interesting,  I have been thinking to pick up some xrp to average down my ridiculous entry back from 2017.  If the case goes well could be regretting not watering down my holding at today's prices.
> 
> Any idea on the progress on the sec case?  As far as I remember late Feb was a date but nothing big happened or I didn't dig deep enough.



Yeah xrp had there first case already, will move to discovery around October, unless a early settlement occurs, 
Some good links on xrp on you tube by digital perspective 
​


----------



## Dark1975

againsthegrain said:


> Interesting,  I have been thinking to pick up some xrp to average down my ridiculous entry back from 2017.  If the case goes well could be regretting not watering down my holding at today's prices.
> 
> Any idea on the progress on the sec case?  As far as I remember late Feb was a date but nothing big happened or I didn't dig deep enough.



Sorry wrong link
This guy is pretty upto date on current case against xrp


----------



## againsthegrain

Dark1975 said:


> Sorry wrong link
> This guy is pretty upto date on current case against xrp





Thanks for the links,  Very good explanation in the second video.  All very clear for me now


----------



## noirua




----------



## Warr87

i got into ETH on Friday. It gapped up over the weekend. nice when it happens that way lol. BTC has to break $52k for me to get in.


----------



## moXJO

The US stimulus passing senate made me buy with my ears pinned back. I'm planning that the corrections over with tightish stops. I don't like fighting government intervention.


----------



## moXJO

Taking some profit on enj. Not sure how high this sucker is going to run. Got interested after my nft post. Flow was one I missed. 

Hard to keep up with all the news.


----------



## moXJO

Be interesting to see if btc double tops


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin whales 'bought the dip' as orders for $100K or more hit all-time highs
					

Bitcoin at $50,000 is fair game for large volume buyers as order volumes near all-time highs.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Binance order books show the next major BTC/USDT resistances for the bulls are around $58,000 — the all-time high — and $59,500.


----------



## kjason0191

Hey Everyone, for the last few months I've been trying to find an Australian based company that allows you to borrow cash against bitcoin without selling your bitcoin. Winner!!!!! This is for anyone who has been looking around for the same
Hope this can help anyone out there
https://fifit.com.au/


----------



## noirua

Price analysis 3/12: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, DOT, XRP, UNI, LTC, LINK, BCH
					

Bitcoin bulls are attempting to push BTC price back toward $58,000 but data shows altcoins may be losing their bullish momentum.




					cointelegraph.com
				



One of the main factors that may have kept several institutional investors at bay is the lack of regulatory clarity but this could be on the verge of changing.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin is now just shy of $60,000 and Is expected by many that it will push on sharply to test $70,000 very shortly indeed, maybe in hours.


----------



## noirua

Crypto Whales Pounce on Bitcoin, Mount One of the Strongest Accumulation Periods in History - The Daily Hodl
					

Crypto whales are accumulating Bitcoin at an astounding pace as the flagship cryptocurrency renews its battle to record a fresh all-time high.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## noirua




----------



## frugal.rock

And the unnoficial results are in.

CONGRATULATIONS @noirua 

You have been awarded;

*FIRST PRIZE*

in the category;

*MOST BLATANT RAMPING*


----------



## Dark1975

noirua said:


>




Lol, i really had a good laugh watching the guy in your clip predict a actual day of the crash. Tho i reakon loinel hutz has more credibility


----------



## moXJO

frugal.rock said:


> And the unnoficial results are in.
> 
> CONGRATULATIONS @noirua
> 
> You have been awarded;
> 
> *FIRST PRIZE*
> 
> in the category;
> 
> *MOST BLATANT RAMPING*



You say ramping, I say worlds greatest investment picker. He ramped it from roughly Apr 12 2018 back when it was about 10k AUD

If only I had listened and gone all in


----------



## noirua

3 reasons Bitcoin fell 6% in 4 hours — Is the BTC price rally at risk?
					

Bitcoin declined 6% in four hours due to a combination of negative on-chain and technical factors.




					cointelegraph.com
				



According to data from Bybt.com, 194,541 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for a total of roughly $1.83 billion, the highest since Feb. 21. The futures market saw cascading liquidations as the market was extremely overheated.


----------



## moXJO

Enj went spastic. My parcel of free carry has been launched. I'm all out at the moment. Mainly due to the fact I lost interest. Attention span of a 2yo.


----------



## kjason0191

I found this some what interesting. Michael Saylor suggesting holding BTC and borrow against it as a means to grow your holdings or to maintain your holdings


----------



## noirua




----------



## Dark1975

Well after reading this article from Ray Dalio,
This well could be the case in the future,
After all, ray talks in some influential circles 😏
Expect bitcoin to take a dive correction if this tax plays out


----------



## noirua

•Mar 14, 2021


----------



## Dark1975

Well with Btc losing 10% in a 8hr session,
Looking toppy to me, and sure it will recover,
Tho looking at it movements last week ,
Time to get a umbrella 😈


----------



## kjason0191

Why you shouldn’t sell.

Many are pretty incapable of removing emotions from their financial decisions. The more emotionally attached you are to an investment, the more likely you are to make a mistake with it
Holding your asset costs $0 (generally speaking) and you can short (hedge) when you feel uneasy. Not only is this peace of mind it’s also a non-taxable event (holding)
Borrowing against bitcoin will soon become more user friendly. Money is cheap, bitcoin will thrive for many more years. Once it becomes a less volatile asset more will jump on-board


----------



## Dark1975

kjason0191 said:


> Why you shouldn’t sell.
> 
> Many are pretty incapable of removing emotions from their financial decisions. The more emotionally attached you are to an investment, the more likely you are to make a mistake with it
> Holding your asset costs $0 (generally speaking) and you can short (hedge) when you feel uneasy. Not only is this peace of mind it’s also a non-taxable event (holding)
> Borrowing against bitcoin will soon become more user friendly. Money is cheap, bitcoin will thrive for many more years. Once it becomes a less volatile asset more will jump on-board



There's always two sides of the coin, ( bad pun)
Depends on view
Long term investment
Or short term investment
On the short term time frame btc is resembling 2017.
The volatility alone of swings of 10% in a 8hr time frame give you a indication that we are topping,
Personally the Crypto space is @ its infancy stage like google / or amazon was 20years ago.
Tho that being said I'm personally @ 80% in cash atm and will be rebuying heavy in the long term once the markets look to have made a correction.
Atm for me personally i think all markets are set to tank in 2-3 months ( this is my view)

I guess my trading has two strategies , I have long term investment accounts,And some accounts dedicated to day trading
As attached my every day trading account / trades done in 1 month timeframe.
Pls DYOR


----------



## noirua




----------



## noirua

'Still early' for BTC price peak: 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week
					

Bitcoin is far from its cycle price peak, according to RSI data




					cointelegraph.com
				



“Bitcoin scenario is playing out so far, in which the crucial resistance fails to break in one-go. Either way, that's not bad,” Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe summarised on Sunday.


----------



## noirua

Trader Michaël van de Poppe Reveals Maximum Price Targets for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano and 5 Other Crypto Assets - The Daily Hodl
					

Closely-followed trader Michaël van de Poppe is unveiling how high Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano and a handful of other crypto assets can rise before this bull market expires.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## Value Collector

Dark1975 said:


> There's always two sides of the coin, ( bad pun)
> Depends on view
> Long term investment
> Or short term investment



You mean 

long term speculation or short term speculation.


----------



## noirua

Link to all the cryptos as Bitcoin attempts to break through a past all-time high to move to test the US$70,000 zone.








						Top Cryptocurrencies by Market Cap | ADVFN
					

Cryptocurrency market cap rankings, prices, volume, charts, and more.



					uk.advfn.com


----------



## noirua

Watch these key technical levels as Bitcoin price nears $61,800 all-time high
					

Bitcoin broke above $61,000 for the first time since mid-March and traders are turning bullish.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## matty77

Havent posted here since JAN and boy the last few months have been great thats for sure.

Any thoughts on if/when we will hit 100k AUD?

I still have 17/18 in the back of my mind, might be time to start taking profits soon.. or DCA out some profit anyway at worse.


----------



## gartley

So BTC cratering over the weekend, now down 23% from ATH.
Looking at the recent pattern of trend this was no surprise.  A three drives to a top pattern and a wedge type ending diagonal pattern. Very bearish


----------



## gartley

Looks to be a textbook EW impulse  pattern completion. If count is correct we might be in the early stages of a pullback under 35K or the span of the previous wave 4 (blue) of one less degree.
More importantly this might also be a warning for an imminent stock market correction as BTC movements have been preceding indices of late.  Ending diagonal pattern that developed last few weeks suggested imminent pullback ahead


----------



## noirua

Worries that arrived on the scene a few weeks back have meant that enthusiasm for Bitcoin miners has reduced and RIOT is now at just above $42 at the close of 1 am BST Saturday morning, down 36$ from the $78 high point or 46%.

Concerns still are that the USA government will take moves to curb Bitcoin. The International Monetary Fund has raised concerns for a while now. Some talks with China this weekend and possible more conciliatory terms may help take the pressure off the known situation where China is the biggest miner of Bitcoin and Russia is expanding fast.

Russian Oil Drilling Giant Opens a Crypto Mining Farm Run on Gas Energy
Https://www.ogv.energy/news-item/russian-oil-drilling-giant-opens-a-crypto-mining-farm-run-on-gas-energy#:~:text=Gazpromneft%2C%20the%20oil%20subsidiary%20of,BTC%2C%20%2B4.46%25)%20mining.

Bitcoin mining: China clamps down on booming trade where some can earn £60,000 a day
Https://news.sky.com/story/china-clamps-down-on-bitcoin-mining-where-some-can-earn-60-000-a-day-12267572​


----------



## Dark1975

gartley said:


> Looks to be a textbook EW impulse  pattern completion. If count is correct we might be in the early stages of a pullback under 35K or the span of the previous wave 4 (blue) of one less degree.
> More importantly this might also be a warning for an imminent stock market correction as BTC movements have been preceding indices of late.  Ending diagonal pattern that developed last few weeks suggested imminent pullback ahead
> 
> 
> View attachment 122961



Hard to know exactly of the pullback , but on the daily chart it hasn't broken the trend line ,
I'm still bullish on crypto atm , a healthy correction, 
For me personally i bought up generally more ada / xrp / vet , 
Altho your analysis has merit I still think we are a few months away from the top, 
Cheap money / u.s.d  looks weak ppl hedging btc over u.s.d 
Investment will still be put in stock markets / commodities and crypto markets at the moment .


----------



## gartley

Dark1975 said:


> Hard to know exactly of the pullback , but on the daily chart it hasn't broken the trend line ,
> I'm still bullish on crypto atm , a healthy correction,
> For me personally i bought up generally more ada / xrp / vet ,
> Altho your analysis has merit I still think we are a few months away from the top,
> Cheap money / u.s.d  looks weak ppl hedging btc over u.s.d
> Investment will still be put in stock markets / commodities and crypto markets at the moment .




Analysis does not imply "ultimate  top" in this market. But dip buyers will need to have long pockets and a lot of patience.  BTC has already seen the best of it's gains in terms of momentum. That pattern that just completed is evidence of that.
Personally I am a short term player and sold.  I think it's headed lower i
n the weeks ahead. Will sell the rallies on downside continuation signals


----------



## againsthegrain

gartley said:


> dip buyers will need to have long pockets and a lot of patience




I got a message from one of the exchanges yesterday that all the deposits into exchanges are being delayed by hours because there was a big influx of money due to the "volatile market" so buying the dip.  Looks like there is still some steam


----------



## gartley

Think again....

There is not just a completed impulse wave. EW used in isolation is not enough. The attached cycles chart adds more weight to the bearish case. Firstly the Curvilinear Envelopes.  Price action pierced the 86 bar cycle upper band  (upper pink line)on the weekly close. When a throw over of the 3 sigma line occurs ( as it has in this case) it suggest price has moved too far too fast and a reversion to the opposite  32 bar cycle lower band is high probabilty. This lines up with the span of the previous wave four of one less degree  between 34419 and 41627.

Also the FT Swing slow ( blue line second pane) has issued a sell signal, same with the Cycle Differnetial 3rd lower pane.  It's only the first day of the week so I shouldn't say the sell signal is a given, but assuming it finishes lower at the end of the week then it's valid.
It should be noted if this is the case, this will not be a short term decline, more like multi week/month.  So for the moment see no reason to close shorts or look to buy dips.


----------



## Dark1975

This current 20% correction of btc may form the second leg down with in 5-8 day time frame which will correlate to the past three previous 2nd leg downs as attached on chart, then continuing to test new highs.
I wont be trading against trend on the current bull run until i see more  evidence.
Quite simply put , trade with trend, With cheap money printing / low interest rates , I will ride with crypto /digital currencies /stock and commodities .
Trade with a plan , trade with stop loss , 
This is not financial advice pls DYOR


----------



## noirua

19 April 2021


----------



## over9k

Ultra high tech:


----------



## gartley

This is a short term chart of BTCUSD 3h.  The longer term chart (weekly) was presented a few posts ago and still remains bearish pending where it finishes end of week.
For now price has moved too far and too fast away from the nominal and a reversion or bounce should take place. Price has thrown under the pink 86 bar cycle band. As such a reversion to opposite upper 32 bar band is a high probability between 58326 to 60k.  I suspect at that point it will be in  position to be forming a longer term head and shoulders pattern to add to shorts before continuing lower.


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				




#trade #framing


----------



## BlindSquirrel

Not strictly BTC related
There are so many bullish set ups playing out on USD pairs at the moment.
E.g.


Also check out DOT, SXP, LTC.


----------



## over9k

If you're interested in just buying crypto in general, RIOT is a nice way to do it, especially with the long term downwards pressure on power prices thanks to the shale revolution.


----------



## gartley

Any more bulls continuing to buy the dip..........


----------



## over9k

There probably is, but it looks like it's still dropping.


----------



## againsthegrain

over9k said:


> There probably is, but it looks like it's still dropping.




Looks more then the usual monthly dip


----------



## over9k

Hence my statement about it "still dropping".


----------



## Joules MM1

i was asked my pov on trading $xbt
i have a STO
so i took pos, started with charts largest to smallest then to most workable frame that gave (me) the best workable
landscape
tradingview charts are historic upto today, jpegs are static once printed (unalterable)

larger picture where a clear signal generated in the largest trend:


			https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/p/pJOPoP02.png
		

that includes likely downside targets

i waited till there was a clear signal from a channel formation, pos taken


			https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/n/N9YpEB0I.png
		

the idea here was a narration of likely series that would say to exit the position
the point of the exercise was about training to have them see  way to interpret price

keeping context, likely target, framing the mechanics


			https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/6/6MFLvY0p.png
		


as each series of trades unfurls, keeping in mind that "one group of trades, or one single trade, is unrelated to the next"
yet how can a construct operate if that assumption is true, the market as a whole has a mindset it is following
and has no choice in the matter...


			https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/C1wWdGOH.png
		


and here we are, a clearer picture at hand, within the confines of price structure, the auction has all the information required
clearer as in the levels (i) sited only offer orthodox levels other players watch, it's the construct that's telling the story so far
and the money that moves is either selling into the strength at the top of the threes or not active at all
so that tends to define if a player is going to be a believer in a larger trend (the mania is long-side in this) or you are going
to be active and manage the levels:


			https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/4/4DLR40qb.png
		



a rolling perspective, you may find useful


----------



## gartley

Based on the pattern there was no reason to be looking for longs on this. Buy the dip because it fell a certain amount last pullback isn't good enough. As soon as we start to notice repetition, that's when the market will do something different. Every juncture is unique...


----------



## Joules MM1

about the expanding channel
the channel is expanded to reflect where the centre of the channel is likely to attract bounces-to,
the base is also a sloping execution level for me and likely to be the level that a cascade trips thru, that takes on a whole different construct


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/9Lqu5fFy/
		


when price bounce thru the centre of the channel (regardless its size or level) that's the first time to reconsider how that
bounce has formed in term of construct and use that construct from the base of the channel to set get out levels for STO's

also note in the first larger chart i denote price had rotated on a very large inverted 127.2%
the price action upto that level almost fits an ending diagonal wedge but its the inverted ratio that did the damage
(and usually does)


----------



## Joules MM1

side note
the bargain dippers and the wanted-more-but-my-cupboard-is-bare dippers are largely quiet today
and the told-you-so crowd is on its feet in the socmed world

once the negative crowd is all you can read/hear then a puke sell is likely to find a substantive low

no rush, sells dominate (until they dont)


----------



## over9k

socmed?


----------



## gartley

BTC moves seem to be preceding moves in the indices of late.
Turning attention to them for now and waiting for a weekly sell confirmation to hopefully generate. Unless signal is skewed by further central bank manipulations....


----------



## Dark1975

Dark1975 said:


> This current 20% correction of btc may form the second leg down with in 5-8 day time frame which will correlate to the past three previous 2nd leg downs as attached on chart, then continuing to test new highs.
> I wont be trading against trend on the current bull run until i see more  evidence.
> Quite simply put , trade with trend, With cheap money printing / low interest rates , I will ride with crypto /digital currencies /stock and commodities .
> Trade with a plan , trade with stop loss ,
> This is not financial advice pls DYOR



So as predicted we are on our second leg down as the chart shows,
tho it broke resistance of 68373,
i will look to next resistance level of 57 199
currently atm standard 24% correction ,
i will only rechange trading plans if support of 57199 breaks, 
Currently im adding,
As media would love you to believe the sky is falling, 
tho instition /large day traders will be buying up now.
Expect more selling off over the weekend , 
tho confident 57k will hold.
After i expect a resumption to the upsides as we continue in this bull run.


----------



## ducati916

The pessimistic view: either a 20 handle or an 11 handle.




jog on
duc


----------



## noirua

However, there is a possibility that the recent drop has its roots in the $1.55 billion options expiry set to occur on April 23. As previously reported by Cointelegraph, bears have a $340 million advantage below $57,000. That could also explain why pro traders kept a neutral stance despite the 18% dip over the past eight days.








						Here’s why bulls aren’t buying the Bitcoin price dip to $50,000
					

Data shows pro traders are not buying the current Bitcoin dip as tomorrow’s $1.55 billion options expiry looms.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

As Bitcoin (BTC) lost the $52,000 support on April 22, the futures contracts funding rate entered negative terrain. This uncommon situation causes the shorts, investors betting on price downside, to pay fees every eight hours.








						Bitcoin funding rate flips negative after $48K retest — Was it a bear trap?
					

Bitcoin price is more than 20% away from its all-time high, but the current negative funding rate on BTC futures might give bulls a unique advantage.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## over9k

RIOT wasn't effected, having an absolutely mental day:


----------



## Joules MM1

whats that skip, the whales are blowing after a 26% dip ?

nice bid construct


----------



## Dark1975

Dark1975 said:


> So as predicted we are on our second leg down as the chart shows,
> tho it broke resistance of 68373,
> i will look to next resistance level of 57 199
> currently atm standard 24% correction ,
> i will only rechange trading plans if support of 57199 breaks,
> Currently im adding,
> As media would love you to believe the sky is falling,
> tho instition /large day traders will be buying up now.
> Expect more selling off over the weekend ,
> tho confident 57k will hold.
> After i expect a resumption to the upsides as we continue in this bull run.



So far the BTC chart has followed exactly as i have charted previously, It has held above the 57k support,
Although on the daily time frame is still bearish, If you pull back out to  the weekly timeframe the sediment is bullish ,
If BTC breaks 68758 we are off to the races


----------



## Dark1975

oh the sky hasn't fallen down, Where did all those bears go 
Btc just broken 68 758, It's off to the races again, 
Another healthy correction of 24%,
cheap money low interest rates ( gatsby era )


----------



## Dark1975

Interesting how fear from the media can change investors views on Btc and the crypto markets , while in the background institutions are buying up in the crypto space like as attached.


----------



## ducati916

Dark1975 said:


> oh the sky hasn't fallen down, Where did all those bears go
> Btc just broken 68 758, It's off to the races again,
> Another healthy correction of 24%,
> cheap money low interest rates ( gatsby era )





Interest rates are set (again) to move higher.

BTC needs to break its 50EMA before you can really celebrate.




And for those interested: https://nypost.com/2021/04/24/new-federal-regulations-could-spur-cryptocurrency-crash/

A potential risk.

jog on
duc


----------



## Dark1975

ducati916 said:


> Interest rates are set (again) to move higher.
> 
> BTC needs to break its 50EMA before you can really celebrate.
> 
> View attachment 123384
> 
> 
> And for those interested: https://nypost.com/2021/04/24/new-federal-regulations-could-spur-cryptocurrency-crash/
> 
> A potential risk.
> 
> jog on
> duc



That thread is old news by the way, and investors factored that in on Friday ,
That article has been written by Ray dalio 3 weeks ago,
And FYI the 50ema is on daily, might want to pull that out on the weekly charts and take another look,


----------



## ducati916

Dark1975 said:


> 1. That thread is old news by the way, and investors factored that in weeks ago ,






Dark1975 said:


> 2. That article has been written by Ray dalio 3 weeks ago,






Dark1975 said:


> 3. And FYI the 50ema is on daily, might want to pull that out on the weekly charts and take another look,





1. You cannot factor in a risk. You can manage a risk.

2. The risk, until it is no longer a risk, remains a risk.

3.  Weekly:




Your point is?


jog on
duc


----------



## Dark1975

ducati916 said:


> 1. You cannot factor in a risk. You can manage a risk.
> 
> 2. The risk, until it is no longer a risk, remains a risk.
> 
> 3.  Weekly:
> 
> View attachment 123392
> 
> 
> Your point is?
> 
> 
> jog on
> duc



My point is simple if u read my last posts , I remain bullish and accumulated more crypto in the last correction (weekend past)
My point is that if you look at the weekly charts not the daily we clearly are still in a bull run !
My point is I'm clearly optimistic at the current point with crypto markets, 
And you are clearly not ?
Respectfully different opinions,
I remain bullish at this point of time ,
And you are bearish with main stream media .


----------



## qldfrog

Looking at the chart, it seems clear we are at an inflection point, so expecting a sharp move in either direction, i bought a back a smaller bit yesterday and now even have a few ethereums.
All money at risk is extracted profit from btc play, so feeling less guilty  gambling it on ether money.
But it is a gamble.
As for the risk, i already banged on this, and believe governments/fed banks are going to ultimately kill these crypto currencies.
Just hoping that btc and eth will have enough leverage to be spared/exempted.
But while the cat is away, let the mice frolick and extract some coins from the situation.
If i may ask mr @ducati916 , do you own any crypto?


----------



## ducati916

Dark1975 said:


> 1. My point is simple if u read my last posts , I remain bullish and accumulated more crypto in the last correction (weekend past)
> 2. My point is that if you look at the weekly charts not the daily we clearly are still in a bull run !
> 3. My point is I'm clearly optimistic at the current point with crypto markets,
> 4. And you are clearly not ?
> 5. Respectfully different opinions,
> 6. I remain bullish at this point of time ,
> 7. And you are bearish with main stream media .





1. Which is fine and I hope it does well. 

2. Correct. The weekly chart is bullish. However, in different time frames, you can have different trends. The Daily trend is bearish, until proven otherwise. To prove it otherwise, price needs to trade back above the 50EMA and hold it, then trade higher past the previous high. If it fails at the 50EMA, then the Daily trend remains bearish, all within a Weekly bullish trend.

3. Optimistic and not a little biased.

4. I am indifferent (as I have no position) and merely stating the blindingly obvious, as per pretty bog standard TA.

5. I have no 'opinion'. As I said, I am simply stating the facts as they appear on the charts.

6. Clearly.

7. Incorrect. I am as I said neutral. The mainstream media have highlighted 'potential' risks. Those risks may never eventuate or be completely wrong. To not consider them however is foolhardy.

Does this chart not make you at least a little nervous in the short term?




jog on
duc


----------



## gartley

Dark1975 said:


> oh the sky hasn't fallen down, Where did all those bears go
> Btc just broken 68 758, It's off to the races again,
> Another healthy correction of 24%,
> cheap money low interest rates ( gatsby era )



There is nothing to suggest ( other than an oversold bounce) that correction has completed......


----------



## ducati916

So alternative analysis:








jog on
duc


* Just a late addition:


----------



## over9k

You think it's a bull trap @gartley ? I'm keen to hear why.


----------



## Dark1975

ducati916 said:


> 1. Which is fine and I hope it does well.
> 
> 2. Correct. The weekly chart is bullish. However, in different time frames, you can have different trends. The Daily trend is bearish, until proven otherwise. To prove it otherwise, price needs to trade back above the 50EMA and hold it, then trade higher past the previous high. If it fails at the 50EMA, then the Daily trend remains bearish, all within a Weekly bullish trend.
> 
> 3. Optimistic and not a little biased.
> 
> 4. I am indifferent (as I have no position) and merely stating the blindingly obvious, as per pretty bog standard TA.
> 
> 5. I have no 'opinion'. As I said, I am simply stating the facts as they appear on the charts.
> 
> 6. Clearly.
> 
> 7. Incorrect. I am as I said neutral. The mainstream media have highlighted 'potential' risks. Those risks may never eventuate or be completely wrong. To not consider them however is foolhardy.
> 
> Does this chart not make you at least a little nervous in the short term?
> 
> View attachment 123396
> 
> 
> jog on
> duc



Quote "Does this chart not make you at least a little nervous in the short term?"

No your monthly chart does not. Nor do i look at monthly charts to plan my trades , I actually use 5/15min /1hr/4hr ,Daily charts and weekly if i need to pull back to look at the overall perspective.

I will post my trading plan for Btc , which was posted on this thread 3 days prior to the leg down. So i actually forecasted a second leg down.
It broke the 68 334 which i honestly thought that leg would hold. Nether the less, The general consensus or theme doesn't change for me.
I think this was a healthy correction for btc  , Consolidation will take place before it moves to test new heights.

3. Agreed bullish , tho i am not biased ( i dont personally hold btc) Tho i use btc to gauge where the general market goes.


----------



## Dark1975

gartley said:


> Looks to be a textbook EW impulse  pattern completion. If count is correct we might be in the early stages of a pullback under 35K or the span of the previous wave 4 (blue) of one less degree.
> More importantly this might also be a warning for an imminent stock market correction as BTC movements have been preceding indices of late.  Ending diagonal pattern that developed last few weeks suggested imminent pullback ahead
> 
> 
> View attachment 122961



So you still trading this plan ?
Curious !


----------



## Joules MM1

nothing in the construct says shorts are winning

holding longs until there is a clear signal to close

clear lack of selling in this current upleg


----------



## ducati916

Dark1975 said:


> Quote "Does this chart not make you at least a little nervous in the short term?"
> 
> No your monthly chart does not. Nor do i look at monthly charts to plan my trades , I actually use 5/15min /1hr/4hr ,Daily charts and weekly if i need to pull back to look at the overall perspective.
> 
> I will post my trading plan for Btc , which was posted on this thread 3 days prior to the leg down. So i actually forecasted a second leg down.
> It broke the 68 334 which i honestly thought that leg would hold. Nether the less, The general consensus or theme doesn't change for me.
> I think this was a healthy correction for btc  , Consolidation will take place before it moves to test new heights.
> 
> 3. Agreed bullish , tho i am not biased ( i dont personally hold btc) Tho i use btc to gauge where the general market goes.





Whatever time frame you wish to utilise, there are technical challenges that require proof of price trading through them.

So this is the 4hr chart:




It looks worse technically, than the daily. You are entering a point of previous selling. Again, guilty until proven innocent.

Re. general market direction: (a) re. $SPX and (b) re. SOXX





Since you are bullish BTC, I can (safely) assume you are bullish the wider market?

I think the stock markets are sketchy, but will last through the summer without a really major break. But again, guilty until proven innocent.


I think BTC can break far lower without any major issues to the indices, although there are now some major corporations that would take a real hit, TSLA obviously. Tech. can trade lower, without causing a market collapse....probably.

jog on
duc


----------



## noirua

Key Bitcoin price metric flashes its first bullish signal in 4 months
					

Ethereum price is clearly in a strong bull trend, but derivatives data signals that pro traders are shifting their bullish bias back toward Bitcoin.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## gartley

Dark1975 said:


> So you still trading this plan ?
> Curious !



Yes I am.  I should note that I sold ETF BTCE . So the price targets mentioned above are in BTC/EUR.
I think it's important to have a handle on the degree of trend the market is currently in.  Still don't think that the correction over and that we will eventually get another leg lower after this upward b wave completes thats if it has not completed already.
We had a very strong 3rd wave up the last 6 months and the subsequent correction is gonna take quite a while relative to the time it took that 3rd wave to complete.
For now I just follow the buy/sells my system generates


----------



## Dark1975

gartley said:


> Yes I am.  I should note that I sold ETF BTCE . So the price targets mentioned above are in BTC/EUR.
> I think it's important to have a handle on the degree of trend the market is currently in.  Still don't think that the correction over and that we will eventually get another leg lower after this upward b wave completes thats if it has not completed already.
> We had a very strong 3rd wave up the last 6 months and the subsequent correction is gonna take quite a while relative to the time it took that 3rd wave to complete.
> For now I just follow the buy/sells my system generates



The correction is over ,
please relate to 2017 charts,
This is simply a change from bitcoin domaince to altcoins,
Check the market cap
This happened in 2017
Btc will go sideways , pretty much consolidate and move like the stock market.
money will slowly move out of bitcoin for the shorterm and move to alt coins.
So my trading pattern is still bullish as I have heavily invested in alt coins.
So i see btc swinging slowly in between 65k -73k over the couple of months as alt coins will be the play now and then back to btc for its last stage of parabolic before everything  blows up.
So i still think we have 3-4 months of this bull run to play out
Refer to market cap, 
Market cap still growing tho btc giving up over 10% , this will continue, currently the flow of money moves out if btc and into alts coins


----------



## againsthegrain

Dark1975 said:


> The correction is over ,
> please relate to 2017 charts,
> This is simply a change from bitcoin domaince to altcoins,
> Check the market cap
> This happened in 2017
> Btc will go sideways , pretty much consolidate and move like the stock market.
> money will slowly move out of bitcoin for the shorterm and move to alt coins.
> So my trading pattern is still bullish as I have heavily invested in alt coins.
> So i see btc swinging slowly in between 65k -73k over the couple of months as alt coins will be the play now and then back to btc for its last stage of parabolic before everything  blows up.
> So i still think we have 3-4 months of this bull run to play out
> Refer to market cap,
> Market cap still growing tho btc giving up over 10% , this will continue, currently the flow of money moves out if btc and into alts coins




Hope your right about the altcoins,  so far they seem to be shadowing btc


----------



## Dark1975

againsthegrain said:


> Hope your right about the altcoins,  so far they seem to be shadowing btc



I trade with a plan,
And being right can be no guarantee! No crystal ball sorry!
Only a salesman would do that.
I trade with my plan , with stop loss in place and have alot invested as attached.
We will see how this plays out!
Pls this is not finacial advice and lls DYOR


----------



## againsthegrain

Dark1975 said:


> I trade with a plan,
> And being right can be no guarantee! No crystal ball sorry!
> Only a salesman would do that.
> I trade with my plan , with stop loss in place and have alot invested as attached.
> We will see how this plays out!
> Pls this is not finacial advice and lls DYOR




Very impressive, I am just a ant in your shadow.  No cardano?


----------



## Dark1975

againsthegrain said:


> Very impressive, I am just a ant in your shadow.  No cardano?



I have cardano on my longterm trading account 👌
This is a day trading account, As you can see btc losing ground and eth and bnb taking some of btc's market cap.
Hopefully good news for xrp on tomorrow 's court case!
Cause i see Xrp breaking out to 2.50ish ,
Out from office , so the tech is crude 😉


----------



## againsthegrain

Dark1975 said:


> I have cardano on my longterm trading account 👌
> This is a day trading account, As you can see btc losing ground and eth and bnb taking some of btc's market cap.
> Hopefully good news for xrp on tomorrow 's court case!
> Cause i see Xrp breaking out to 2.50ish ,
> Out from office , so the tech is crude 😉




I see,  I have xrp in a cold wallet and ada for some trading fun on swyftx opposite scenario. 

Yes I see what you are getting at,  good time to be in alts, I also don't hold any btc


----------



## qldfrog

Dark1975 said:


> I trade with a plan,
> And being right can be no guarantee! No crystal ball sorry!
> Only a salesman would do that.
> I trade with my plan , with stop loss in place and have alot invested as attached.
> We will see how this plays out!
> Pls this is not finacial advice and lls DYOR



that's a lot of money at the merci of the US fed bank making these illegal..and I feel daring playing with one BTC...


----------



## Dark1975

Dark1975 said:


> I have cardano on my longterm trading account 👌
> This is a day trading account, As you can see btc losing ground and eth and bnb taking some of btc's market cap.
> Hopefully good news for xrp on tomorrow 's court case!
> Cause i see Xrp breaking out to 2.50ish ,
> Out from office , so the tech is






qldfrog said:


> that's a lot of money at the merci of the US fed bank making these illegal..and I feel daring playing with one BTC...



Not really Xrp is 80% , nothing to do with u.s !
you can't actually buy xrp if u are in the States unless u go to uphold .
Due to the case with ripple vs Sec ,
Tho I've invested in ripple as its been tested with the IMF / back testing future currencies.
The U.s with tax implications in the future for btc will harm the market.
Tho in the large scale of things, 2 trillion market cap!
And stop block chain technology  is  like trying to stop the Internet in the early 1990's .
You see behind the curtain , Gary gensler chairman just put in place @ SEC was a M.I.T professor for blockchain technology. 
You see the big picture is digital currencies soon . The u.s is clearing and clarifying laws for the go forward in crypto I belive .
Block chain will be massive in 10years , atm its only retail, slowly as institutions adopt it will gather momentum


----------



## Dark1975

qldfrog said:


> that's a lot of money at the merci of the US fed bank making these illegal..and I feel daring playing with one BTC...



Just curious mate, Do you think the U.s Can shutdown the crypto platform's ? Or do you mean holding btc illegal as they done with gold in 1933?


----------



## qldfrog

Dark1975 said:


> Just curious mate, Do you think the U.s Can shutdown the crypto platform ? Or do you mean holding btc illegal as they done with gold in 1933?



making crypto illegal is the way I see it, once they release their own fiat  pseudo crypto..as gold
it obviously depends on how wealthy you are 300k might be just 10% of your wealth..I would not play more than 10% with crypto as i believe if s happens, they will all behave in a single way and potentially not even allow you to trade them


----------



## ducati916

Dark1975 said:


> 1. And stop block chain technology  is  like trying to stop the Internet in the early 1990's .
> 2. You see behind the curtain , Gary gensler chairman just put in place @ SEC was a M.I.T professor for blockchain technology.
> 3. You see the big picture is digital currencies soon . The u.s is clearing and clarifying laws for the go forward in crypto I belive .
> 4. Block chain will be massive in 10years , atm its only retail, slowly as institutions adopt it will gather momentum




1. I don't think that anyone (government) will seek to stop/inhibit the use of blockchain technology.

2/3. These 2 sit together. Without a doubt, all governments will move to digital currencies. Why would they not: it affords them even more control over us, the sheep, than the current system. Placing Mr Gensler in the SEC. however does not necessarily follow that that is for our benefit or the benefit of the current crop of cryptos. It will most likely be for the government coin, when it is released.

4. Blockchain may well be. Again, it does not follow that crypto currencies outside of the control of government will be. Government derives its power from the control of the money supply. It will never voluntarily give up that monopoly. Therefore, as Mr Frog suggests, declaring all cryptos other than the government dollar/pound/euro crypto currency illegal, is not an outrageous possibility. Allowing cryptos, other than a Central Bank crypto, would essentially lead to that loophole that breaks the monopoly. Look at the historical example of when gold was outlawed: did Corporations use gold? But also consider just how much more widespread gold actually was, it was actual money before fiat replaced it, essentially from the barrel of a gun.

The thing is that while individuals might flout the law and hold crypto illegally, could Corporations? The answer is no, not openly. The penalties if caught, would make most shy away. If the value of crypto is that Corporations will universally adopt it and it be accepted as a widespread payments system, then outlawing it will pretty much kill it. Most will go to zero. That is a pretty significant risk that can only be managed by "HOPE".


jog on
duc


----------



## Dark1975

qldfrog said:


> making crypto illegal is the way I see it, once they release their own fiat  pseudo crypto..as gold
> it obviously depends on how wealthy you are 300k might be just 10% of your wealth..I would not play more than 10% with crypto as i believe if s happens, they will all behave in a single way and potentially not even allow you to trade them



quite simply addressed ?

U.s Can't take down the protocol - blockchain technology as much as they can't take something they dont own! Fact

they can outlaw crypto in there country ? Well i guess they could, but highly improbable ( like stopping Americans shop on eBay)

i respect your opinion, tho i suggest you do some further research?

if you get a chance go to the Imf home page on digital currencies. And bypass mainsteam media

I leave you with some attachments to research and let you DYOR.

The future reset ? Differently future currencies


----------



## qldfrog

Dark1975 said:


> quite simply addressed ?
> 
> U.s Can't take down the protocol - blockchain technology as much as they can't take something they dont own! Fact
> 
> they can outlaw crypto in there country ? Well i guess they could, but highly improbable ( like stopping Americans shop on eBay)
> 
> i respect your opinion, tho i suggest you do some further research?
> 
> if you get a chance go to the Imf home page on digital currencies. And bypass mainsteam media
> 
> I leave you with some attachments to research and let you DYOR.
> 
> The future reset ? Differently future currencies



I have nothing against crypto, got some btc eth, but the media and so gov storyline is crypto=fraud, tax evasion and risky speculators if not mafia underworld sex trafficking..you name it.
The Reset as per Davos needs to suppress physical money and definitively not allowing a non gov money.
So a lot of reasons and excuses to ban it.
I do not challenge the need, utility etc
But we are well past this in the west as oer CC, covid narrative.and we can not hope better from China who has already had some prohibition in place.
Not taking this risk into account would be lunacy in my opinion.
Risk management.
If i was 100pc certain it will happen, i would have sold my btc...


----------



## gartley

Dark1975 said:


> The correction is over ,
> please relate to 2017 charts,
> This is simply a change from bitcoin domaince to altcoins,
> Check the market cap
> This happened in 2017
> Btc will go sideways , pretty much consolidate and move like the stock market.
> money will slowly move out of bitcoin for the shorterm and move to alt coins.
> So my trading pattern is still bullish as I have heavily invested in alt coins.
> So i see btc swinging slowly in between 65k -73k over the couple of months as alt coins will be the play now and then back to btc for its last stage of parabolic before everything  blows up.
> So i still think we have 3-4 months of this bull run to play out
> Refer to market cap,
> Market cap still growing tho btc giving up over 10% , this will continue, currently the flow of money moves out if btc and into alts coins



Dark,

I know nothing about the fundementals of Cryptos. I will leave that to you.  What I do know is Elliott Waves, pattern of trend of a price chart and my cycles analysis.
I mentioned some weeks back that price action had reached an extreme on the weekly chart firstly as shown by the Elliott Wave count which really was a textbook impulse completion,  secondly on the weekly cycles chart which showed price action had exceeded the upper orange band ( 128 bar Centered Weighted MA) as well as the pink band ( 86 bar centered weighted MA). I know from experience when this happens on charts of any time frame and is accompanied by the FT Swing Cycles indicator which I developed crosses the upper 50 level and the lower cycles differential indicator 2 lines cross, then it's a very high probability will pull back to the rising lower blue line( 32 WCMA) at the very least, and that happens to be 44391 in USD terms. However given the degree of trend the correction will probably be deeper, 41680 or under.

You can see in both the weekly and daily charts below there is no buy signal as yet. We had a very hard leg down and price has bounced now, would not expect next leg down to start straight away, I think it will probably stuff around sideways for a while within the bounced range before the next leg down starts.
I never hold any bullish or bearish biases with anything or even look at the fundamentals, I just take price action and what the chart suggest at face value.  Presently I hold no position as I took profits after the first leg down completed. Just looking to re position a sell if and when another sell is generated.

Weekly Chart currrently on a sell



Daily Chart, currently on a sell


----------



## Joules MM1

the bid structure looks very clean to me, still holding longs. STO's should quit pretty soon adding momo to the effort


----------



## over9k




----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> nothing in the construct says shorts are winning
> 
> holding longs until there is a clear signal to close
> 
> clear lack of selling in this current upleg



lots of interesting pov's in this thread



			https://www.tradingview.com/x/6XaA1SSw/
		


also see for context:  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...ssion-and-analysis.33619/page-37#post-1118949


----------



## noirua

I'm still confident about Bitcoin despite the rumours of a capital gains tax on cryptos in the states: That would on one the hand mean a reluctance to sell at all and on the other a scramble to unload before it happens. Either way, it looks to me to be an even bet on the outcome and also if it is implemented.
Fell very recently to under $52,000 though my personal guess is for $70,000 in the short term. Shares have been hit by rumours that they may be singled out for higher capital gains tax but that looks unlikely IMHO.​


----------



## noirua

Europe awaits implementation of regulatory framework for crypto assets
					

The EU’s ambitious regulatory proposal for crypto assets might become an example for other countries looking to regulate crypto.




					cointelegraph.com
				



As with any regulatory proposal, MiCA is going through all the cogs of the EU legislative machine. This process will hopefully help to fine-tune MiCA provisions, remove frictions, address any issues and arrive at the most optimal regulation that meets the needs and expectations of all the stakeholders. After MiCA comes into force, there is still an 18-month delay in application of the regulation, except with regard to e-money tokens and asset-referenced tokens, to which the regulation will apply immediately.


----------



## basilio

Maybe we need to take another perspective on Bitcoin.









						Can magic mushrooms really help you understand bitcoin?
					

That’s what one German billionaire says. But it’s not why the Aztecs and the hippies were such fans




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## noirua

April 30, 2021
ECB - European Central Bank
Digital Version of the Euro within 4 years.


----------



## Joules MM1

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mge1SIeN/
		

still got those bullish qualities

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lIxi1Eb2/good to have a plan


----------



## Dark1975

I found a old link with amazon in 1999
It actually shows how pessimistic and bearish media were with amazon ,
Can find this in relationship now with media and institutional with btc

Ironic 🤔 many people feel this way with blockchain technology


----------



## Joules MM1

go Charlie !!
"Warren Buffett, who avoided the initial question on bitcoin earlier, 
responded to Munger’s answer: “I’m alright on that one.”









						Charlie Munger calls bitcoin 'disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization'
					

"Of course I hate the bitcoin success," the 97-year-old Munger said during a Q&A session at Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting Saturday.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Smurf1976

Dark1975 said:


> Ironic 🤔 many people feel this way with blockchain technology



Bitcoin is a use of blockchain but Bitcoin isn't itself blockchain just as the evening news isn't the whole of television, just one use of it.

Blockchain being adopted as a technology in no way guarantees anything about Bitcoin.

As a use of blockchain, Bitcoin might turn out to be a Facebook or Google or in the long term it might turn out to be a Myspace or Alta Vista.


----------



## ducati916

Smurf1976 said:


> Bitcoin is a use of blockchain but Bitcoin isn't itself blockchain just as the evening news isn't the whole of television, just one use of it.
> 
> Blockchain being adopted as a technology in no way guarantees anything about Bitcoin.
> 
> As a use of blockchain, Bitcoin might turn out to be a Facebook or Google or in the long term it might turn out to be a Myspace or Alta Vista.





Exactly. The blockchain is only indirectly an issue with BTC.

A couple of excerpts from a longer article:





No way that governments give up their control of the money monopoly. To do so would be to relinquish significant power. 

If you agree with that, then BTC's days are numbered before it is outlawed. 

As a government, you want to introduce a digital fiat currency. We have BTC. Let BTC and its proponents condition the population to digital currencies. Then, move to have oversight and regulation with greater transparency: Coinbase etc. With transparency, BTC and other digital tokens come off of the dark web, where there is little transparency. Introduce your digital fiat dollar and make illegal all others.

Of course devotees of BTC will not give up. They will continue to HODler and trade it on the dark web (hopefully) out of sight of the Regulators, Police, etc. The point however is that it will never be mainstream. It will be relegated to the backwaters. As a safeguard of value, it will still have a place, but the nominal value will be what, higher or lower? I'd say lower.

With gold/silver, you have a historically proven method of escaping the clutches of government, while remaining in the mainstream: holding the actual physical. This is not for speculation and trading. This is for basic survival if the government kills the fiat through their move to outright, continued MMT.

Which brings me to the greater value of gold. If the government did kill the fiat dollar through continuous MMT, the only way that they can retain control of the money supply and thereby remain in power, is to once again back their new fiat currency with their gold reserves. The US claims some 8000 tons, China, far higher. Gordon Brown sold off most of the UK's.

jog on
duc


----------



## Dark1975

Dark1975 said:


> The correction is over ,
> please relate to 2017 charts,
> This is simply a change from bitcoin domaince to altcoins,
> Check the market cap
> This happened in 2017
> Btc will go sideways , pretty much consolidate and move like the stock market.
> money will slowly move out of bitcoin for the shorterm and move to alt coins.
> So my trading pattern is still bullish as I have heavily invested in alt coins.
> So i see btc swinging slowly in between 65k -73k over the couple of months as alt coins will be the play now and then back to btc for its last stage of parabolic before everything  blows up.
> So i still think we have 3-4 months of this bull run to play out
> Refer to market cap,
> Market cap still growing tho btc giving up over 10% , this will continue, currently the flow of money moves out if btc and into alts coins



As you can refer to friday thread (only 3days ago)
the overall market cap for crypto has increased by 200 billion more , Yet btc actually declined dominance by 0.5% which suggests we see alt season starting , 
I have placed in stop loss in all trades , 
I'd personally like to see consolidation now for btc which will see alt coins dominate,
The only fear I have is that btc goes parabolic and turns the volatility up to fast .


----------



## Warr87

my charts are looking good for both BTC and ETH. fingers crossed.


----------



## noirua

Price analysis 5/3: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, DOGE, ADA, DOT, UNI, LTC, BCH
					

Ethereum and a handful of altcoins have charged higher while Bitcoin struggles to find enough momentum to clear the $58,000 level.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Fund managers will find it difficult to ignore the top two cryptocurrencies as their market caps surpass popular Wall Street names. This could continue to attract fresh money into the crypto sector and boost prices higher.


----------



## noirua

Glassnode predicts BTC rally as stablecoin supply tags record highs
					

Stablecoin supplies are at all-time highs, suggesting Bitcoin may soon see another rally.




					cointelegraph.com
				



With the surging supply, Glassnode highlights that Bitcoin’s Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which measures the Bitcoin supply divided by the stablecoin supply, is sitting at a year-to-date low of 13.4, and is approaching its all-time-low of 9.6.


----------



## noirua

ZEC BTC ETH live charts:
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=coin^zecusd&width=363&height=270&p=4&t=1&vol=0
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=coin^zecusd&width=363&height=270&p=0&t=1&vol=0
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=coin^btcusd&width=363&height=270&p=4&t=1&vol=0
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=coin^btcusd&width=363&height=270&p=0&t=1&vol=0
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=coin^ethusd&width=363&height=270&p=4&t=1&vol=0
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=coin^ethusd&width=363&height=270&p=0&t=1&vol=0


----------



## gartley

Things starting to look not too flash for the bulls......
Weekly and daily still bearish and the 3hr has just flashed a sell in the short term here. We had what appears to be an impulsive 5 wave move down from the top. This might be an upward 3 wave move that completed. Three waves always unfold against the one larger trend


----------



## Dark1975

So further change in the market,as forecasted bitcoin domaince had declined by 1.50% yet the market cap of crypto only down 30billion!
So hence eth and bnb have have grown while btc has given up dominance to these two large caps.
So going forward we see currently eth and bnb pausing after a massive rally while money pours in to defi .
Currently chain link and litecoin have surged 20% in 24hrs which are the two leaders in defi.
If this continues as in 2017 , next phase is the large altcoins like pokerdot / cardano /xrp etc etc .
I think btc cash has still room to move in the bull cycle, i just purchased btc cash as attached still 3 x  away from previous highs .
Attached my account: just to show you buy dips but also learn to take profits as well. 
This is not finacial information.  Pls DYOR


----------



## Dark1975

Dark1975 said:


> So further change in the market,as forecasted bitcoin domaince had declined by 1.50% yet the market cap of crypto only down 30billion!
> So hence eth and bnb have have grown while btc has given up dominance to these two large caps.
> So going forward we see currently eth and bnb pausing after a massive rally while money pours in to defi .
> Currently chain link and litecoin have surged 20% in 24hrs which are the two leaders in defi.
> If this continues as in 2017 , next phase is the large altcoins like pokerdot / cardano /xrp etc etc .
> I think btc cash has still room to move in the bull cycle, i just purchased btc cash as attached still 3 x  away from previous highs .
> Attached my account: just to show you buy dips but also learn to take profits as well.
> This is not finacial information.  Pls DYOR



As predicted, 12hrs later as I posted i purchased bitcoin cash it has gained 50% , and cardano and other alt coins are now are on the move, should see massive moves other the next couple of weeks 
This is not finacial advice. Pls DYOR


----------



## againsthegrain

Dark1975 said:


> As predicted, 12hrs later as I posted i purchased bitcoin cash it has gained 50% , and cardano and other alt coins are now are on the move, should see massive moves other the next couple of weeks
> This is not finacial advice. Pls DYOR




Good analysis once again,  thanks for running your ideas by us here please keep it up


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin Cash price jumps 68%: Looming hard fork to boost BCH user base?
					

Bitcoin Cash is surging ahead of its scheduled hard fork on May 15, with two quality of life improvements set to be implemented.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Bitcoin Cash (BCH) burst back into the market capitalization top 10 rankings on Thursday after a 36% overnight surge compounded 68% growth for the week. The per coin valuation of BCH climbed from $1,068 to $1,462 in under 24 hours leading into May 6, adding to a notable increase from its weekly low in the $800 range.


----------



## noirua

Early Bitcoin bull market buyers are hodling strong, but short term trading increasing
					

The share of Bitcoin’s supply that was last realized on-chain in the past six months has doubled since Q3 2020.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Data from Glassnode shows that bulls who accumulated during the second half of 2020 are still holding strong, despite a surge in short-term speculation this year.


----------



## Gunnerguy

Just wondering, as I know very little about BTC, is there a ‘vehicle’ that gives you the ability of shorting BTC ?
Gunnerguy


----------



## Dark1975

Gunnerguy said:


> Just wondering, as I know very little about BTC, is there a ‘vehicle’ that gives you the ability of shorting BTC ?
> Gunnerguy



indeed there is , Can use CFD'S or options , Shorts or longs, So many trading platforms like plus 500 etc etc..
Just some advice.. I wouldn't' go against trend ATM or leverage crypto . In short crypto is way more volatile than stocks.
This isn't any financial advice. pls DYOR


----------



## noirua

Price analysis 5/7: BTC, ETH, BNB, DOGE, XRP, ADA, DOT, BCH, LTC, UNI
					

Altcoins continue to rally higher and Bitcoin's repeat tests of the $58,000 level signal that bulls are building momentum.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Bitcoin is facing stiff resistance near the downtrend line but a positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to sustain below the 20-day exponential moving average ($56,036). This indicates that traders are buying on every minor dip.


----------



## Dark1975

Dark1975 said:


> So further change in the market,as forecasted bitcoin domaince had declined by 1.50% yet the market cap of crypto only down 30billion!
> So hence eth and bnb have have grown while btc has given up dominance to these two large caps.
> So going forward we see currently eth and bnb pausing after a massive rally while money pours in to defi .
> Currently chain link and litecoin have surged 20% in 24hrs which are the two leaders in defi.
> If this continues as in 2017 , next phase is the large altcoins like pokerdot / cardano /xrp etc etc .
> I think btc cash has still room to move in the bull cycle, i just purchased btc cash as attached still 3 x  away from previous highs .
> Attached my account: just to show you buy dips but also learn to take profits as well.
> This is not finacial information.  Pls DYOR



So as you can see bitcoin domaince gives up more market cap as major alt coins continues to surge.
Since I last posted 6 days ago, market cap has grown a further 200billion and major alt  coins eth / ada have grown over a minimum 20%
Atm my trading plan hasn't changed , I have placed stop losses ,but I expect to see btc keep trying to push thru 77430 resis target,
Should see btc dominance now change, I'm expecting btc to gain a little back in market cap as I think btc will make some big moves.
I'm extremely bullish atm .
This is not finacial advice. Pls DYOR


----------



## Gunnerguy

Dark1975 said:


> indeed there is , Can use CFD'S or options , Shorts or longs, So many trading platforms like plus 500 etc etc..
> Just some advice.. I wouldn't' go against trend ATM or leverage crypto . In short crypto is way more volatile than stocks.
> This isn't any financial advice. pls DYOR



Options, shorts, longs in the ASX ?


----------



## Dark1975

Gunnerguy said:


> Options, shorts, longs in the ASX ?



You wont find any option trading and Cfd's on ASX exchange for crypto , Only on American Exchanges atm like plus 500 / IC markets /binnance etc etc


----------



## over9k

If you want to hedge your bets a bit, I keep pointing out RIOT.


----------



## Warr87

Dark1975 said:


> You wont find any option trading and Cfd's on ASX exchange for crypto , Only on American Exchanges atm like plus 500 / IC markets /binnance etc etc



I'm using FXCM that offers CFDs on crypto's.


----------



## Gunnerguy

Dark1975 said:


> You wont find any option trading and Cfd's on ASX exchange for crypto , Only on American Exchanges atm like plus 500 / IC markets /binnance etc etc



Thanks Dark1975


----------



## noirua

BTC could trade for $250K within five years: Morgan Creek Capital CEO
					

Speaking to CNBC, Morgan Creek Capital Management’s Mark Yusko predicted Bitcoin will tag $250,000 in the next five years.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Yusko’s price prediction is based on his assumption that Bitcoin will rival gold by “monetary value” - a concept derived from the gold standard where a country's currency or fiat has a value directly linked to gold. He stated: “If gold’s monetary value is $4 trillion, then digital gold should move up to that total.”


----------



## BlindSquirrel

I'm using leveraged futures on FTX, their charting is lifted straight from tradingview so it's nice and familiar.


----------



## ducati916

Latest:

Citing data from blockchain data service Glassnode, CoinDesk reports that the number of so-called bitcoin whales (i.e., single computer networks that hodl 1,000 or more bitcoins within a cluster of wallet I.P. addresses) fell to 1,943 yesterday.  That’s down from more than 2,000 just five days ago and a peak of 2,237 whale networks on Feb. 7. 

Dwindling ownership from large accounts may be cause for concern for bitcoin bulls, if last years’ experience is any indication.  Thus, while bitcoin remained tethered near $10,000 for much of the summer and fall, the number of whales gradually increased from fewer than 1,800 in June to more than 1,900 in November, then accelerated as prices jumped to $20,000 and far beyond.   

With bitcoin currently at $56,000, within shouting distance of its $66,000 record, a symmetrical dynamic could be taking shape.  "The data look bearish,” comments Pankaj Balani, co-founder and CEO of the Singapore-based digital trading venue Delta Exchange.  Balani, who expects the flagship crypto to decline below $50,000, views yesterday’s selloff to as low as $53,500 (which has since largely reversed) as bolstering his near-term outlook. "Monday's move was quite confirmatory of the impending drop," he tells CoinDesk. 

jog on
duc


----------



## Dark1975

Looking currently on the 4hr time frame with btc the last leg forming has  formed a shooting star on the 4hr.
I really wasn't expecting a pullback, tho i guess you must accept when you make wrong decisions and move on.
i think this pull back could test the 68414 resist.
So short term changed my trading strategy and sold 65% of holding and remain in alot of cash to rebuy the lows in the next 24hr time frame as i still think we are still in a general bull run on the weekly charts.
And the bitcoin dominance is currently 42.28%  and that the market cap is larger than 5 days ago at 2.45 trillion which confirms alt season where money is running from btc into eth /bnb / ada etc etc.
Tho one problem is that when the market pulls too quickly from btc everything still follows, 
So hence this correction,
Big call for me at the moment, cause it could likely wake up in the morning and see btc @ 75k.


----------



## frugal.rock

Dark1975 said:


> Looking currently on the 4hr time



Forget the charts for a while....

Apparently, about an hour ago, Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla now won't be accepting Bitcoin after all. 
I believe it is/was due to the non green nature of mining Bitcoin?

Further impacts on Bitcoin are expected in my view.

DYOR, but I believe that the same amount of electricity required to power Argentina for a year is also used by Bitcoin mining in one year. 
I would expect this aspect of it to seriously impede the future of it, legislation is a huge risk ATM 
IMHO.


----------



## moXJO

frugal.rock said:


> Forget the charts for a while....
> 
> Apparently, about an hour ago, Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla now won't be accepting Bitcoin after all.
> I believe it is/was due to the non green nature of mining Bitcoin?
> 
> Further impacts on Bitcoin are expected in my view.
> 
> DYOR, but I believe that the same amount of electricity required to power Argentina for a year is also used by Bitcoin mining in one year.
> I would expect this aspect of it to seriously impede the future of it, legislation is a huge risk ATM
> IMHO.



Eth is the future (and only just). Bitcoin is a bit of a dinosaur. Everything is on the eth network. Bitcoin is pass the bag to the bigger fool. It's hard to see the utility for it. I could be well wrong. But I'd be shifting my money as well.


----------



## Dark1975

frugal.rock said:


> Forget the charts for a while....
> 
> Apparently, about an hour ago, Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla now won't be accepting Bitcoin after all.
> I believe it is/was due to the non green nature of mining Bitcoin?
> 
> Further impacts on Bitcoin are expected in my view.
> 
> DYOR, but I believe that the same amount of electricity required to power Argentina for a year is also used by Bitcoin mining in one year.
> I would expect this aspect of it to seriously impede the future of it, legislation is a huge risk ATM
> IMHO.



"Forget about the charts for a while" 😂
Actually i called this correction @ 2am in the morning before it started tanking , In which my charting saved me and i positioned  in cash !
Though waiting for the news from ellon musk this morning is why retail investors lose!
Anyone needed that news to know that bitcoin used that much energy shouldn't be investing in crypto ?


----------



## qldfrog

Dark1975 said:


> "Forget about the charts for a while" 😂
> Actually i called this correction @ 2am in the morning before it started tanking , In which my charting saved me and i positioned  in cash !
> Though waiting for the news from ellon musk this morning is why retail investors lose!
> Anyone needed that news to know that bitcoin used that much energy shouldn't be investing in crypto ?



Rare but cheap to do is valueless, i believe BTC should be seen as having an intrinsic value: its energy cost.
Not a bad thing in my opinion but not good for the current narrative.
Has anyone calculated the energy cost of 1g of gold.must be scary as hell


----------



## Dark1975

qldfrog said:


> Rare but cheap to do is valueless, i believe BTC should be seen as having an intrinsic value: its energy cost.
> Not a bad thing in my opinion but not good for the current narrative.
> Has anyone calculated the energy cost of 1g of gold.must be scary as hell



i won't invest in btc for so many reasons.
I will give you some quick points :
Btc uses 1% of the world's energy for mining ! - Can use any other crypto with zero footprint e.g  : ripple (xrp) or any other crypto that doesn't require mining.
Btc ledger will be one day controlled  china once they achieve more than 50% pool. I personally wont invest in a product owned by china in this current environment.
The World banks / IMF / Fed and jp morgan /rothschilds etc etc will not ever lose control of the status quo..
If they want to go digital, they will with something they control.

I still believe in digital platforms and the crypto market is the future with blockchain technology.
Tho I'm investing in xrp for e.g as its a technology that will be used as a platform for world banks , Not to replace currency,
In short , not a threat to the status quo though a technology enhancement.

Plus looking at the current change I'd rather invest in eth as its likely to replace btc in the future if i was hedging my bets


----------



## moXJO

Caught up with a mate who was a dedicated bitcoin devotee. He has switched all his holdings to eth. I nearly fell over as he always preached it as the one true coin.


----------



## qldfrog

moXJO said:


> Caught up with a mate who was a dedicated bitcoin devotee. He has switched all his holdings to eth. I nearly fell over as he always preached it as the one true coin.



eth has an actual technical usage, before being a storage of value so that's a plus.for all the arguments against BTC, only summarise these as : a thread to fed banks so they will manage to destroy it, either in narrative: pedophiles and drug payments, not green, I do not know anti LGBT, anti black, bla bla
if that does not work, they will outlaw it
but need to surf the wave before and a lot can happen to discredit fed banks and currencies..and good luck with any ripple, dodgecoin etc...


----------



## noirua

Backlash to Elon Musk’s Bitcoin bombshell as traders start to buy the dip
					

Some traders are buying the dip amid the fallout from Tesla’s suspension of Bitcoin payments, while others are levying accusations of an elaborate pump n dump.




					cointelegraph.com
				



On May 13, Tesla and Musk announced that it had ceased accepting BTC as payment for vehicles due to concerns regarding the “rapidly increasing use of fossil fuels for Bitcoin mining and transactions, especially coal.”


----------



## moXJO

qldfrog said:


> eth has an actual technical usage, before being a storage of value so that's a plus.for all the arguments against BTC, only summarise these as : a thread to fed banks so they will manage to destroy it, either in narrative: pedophiles and drug payments, not green, I do not know anti LGBT, anti black, bla bla
> if that does not work, they will outlaw it
> but need to surf the wave before and a lot can happen to discredit fed banks and currencies..and good luck with any ripple, dodgecoin etc...



There's also the fact that eth can multibag a few times from here with relative ease where as bitcoin feels a long way from doubling. I also think the above does create a way for govt to legitimise legislation.


----------



## over9k

frugal.rock said:


> Forget the charts for a while....
> 
> Apparently, about an hour ago, Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla now won't be accepting Bitcoin after all.
> I believe it is/was due to the non green nature of mining Bitcoin?
> 
> Further impacts on Bitcoin are expected in my view.
> 
> DYOR, but I believe that the same amount of electricity required to power Argentina for a year is also used by Bitcoin mining in one year.
> I would expect this aspect of it to seriously impede the future of it, legislation is a huge risk ATM
> IMHO.



Really gotta wonder if it's market manipulation though. Have they sold all of theirs off, torpedoing it with the tweet, and we'll soon see a "Due to developments in bitcoin mining technology making it far greener than it previously was blah blah blah we're now going to start accepting it again" policy & accompanying tweet? 

Classic pump, dump, repump? 


There's no way he's not aware of how much he can/does manipulate markets simply through his actions.


----------



## over9k

Also:




This is actually why I'm quite bullish on RIOT long term. Both electricity costs and mining (chip) efficiency are only improving constantly, giving RIOT some solid tailwinds from both perspectives and an multiplier effect by the combination.

There's obviously going to be some stormy seas, but long term, it's a hold for me.

I just wish I'd gotten in way back when it was $2.50 or so


----------



## noirua

Best Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Blockchain Stocks To Know
					

Are These Top Blockchain Stocks Worth Investing In This Week?Amidst all that is happening in the stock market today, investors may want to consider looking at blockchain stocks. Chances are, seasoned and new investors alike would be somewhat familiar with this group of stocks. Th




					www.nasdaq.com


----------



## over9k

So it was actually up in early trading, musk then made another comment, calling the energy use "insane". It's _then_ plummeted and he's gone quiet. 

I'm finding it pretty hard to believe this isn't deliberate manipulation now.


----------



## over9k

You might have been able to point to about $40 as being a bit of a support level before:




But that's long gone.

It was actually in the green for a moment (if you could believe it) until Elon's 2nd comment about the energy use being "insane". He's even hit the news etc as all the rageposts on wallstreetbets and the crypto forums and so on are doing the rounds.

Will be interesting to see if the SEC ends up getting involved because I don't think the manipulation can be denied any more.


Edit: 

Seems the market's well & truly cracked the shits & sold off tesla in response too:




Elon's upset a lot of people/made a lot of enemies this week methinks.


----------



## noirua

City in North Dakota now accepts cryptocurrency for utility payments
					

The city of Williston, North Dakota is joining the cryptocurrency adoption race in the United States by starting to accept crypto payments.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Hercules Cummings, finance director for the City of Williston, announced Thursday that the city administration has partnered with crypto payment firm BitPay to start accepting cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) as payment for utility bills.


----------



## ducati916

And









						Fact-Check: This Bitcoin Selloff is Nothing Like the Others
					

The most common thing bitcoin bulls say during drawdowns is that volatility is normal. "It's just a routine selloff.




					www.linkedin.com
				




jog on
duc


----------



## sptrawler

I think this is the article, we are looking for. May just be a bit of a scare tactic, or may get the pitchfork crew wound up, who knows.








						176,000,000,000,000,000,000 per second: The reason Elon Musk is moving away from Bitcoin
					

Elon Musk says Bitcoin is bad for the environment, and some very big numbers are behind it.




					www.abc.net.au
				



From the article:
The issue is that all these computer farms working overtime to mine bitcoin use up a lot of real-world energy.

The grunt work of adding to the block chain has computers run guessing games involving an astronomically large number of guesses each second.

To be more precise, the network is currently estimated as being able to handle 176,000,000,000,000,000,000 (that's 176 quintillion) computations every single second.

All those numbers are energy intensive, so the power consumption of the Bitcoin network is huge. 

According to the University of Cambridge's Centre for Alternative Finance, the estimated annualised consumption of electricity by the Bitcoin network is 149.6 terawatt hours and growing.

That's more than countries like Sweden, Pakistan and Malaysia, and about 61 per cent of Australia's total energy consumption.
A report from the centre noted that miners "have long competed on accessing the cheapest energy source".

Many of those sources are fossil fuels.

According to German research published in the academic paper Joule in 2019, Bitcoin was responsible for up to 51 megatons of CO2 emissions annually.


----------



## Smurf1976

sptrawler said:


> the estimated annualised consumption of electricity by the Bitcoin network is 149.6 terawatt hours and growing.



It's a lot of energy no matter how it's expressed and comes with a very real cost - at heavy industrial energy industrial prices that's roughly $12 billion a year worth of electricity (will vary with location but that's a ballpark figure). 

That's a decent sized energy overhead given the tiny market share Bitcoin has in terms of being a payment method for real world goods and services of any sort.


----------



## qldfrog

Smurf1976 said:


> It's a lot of energy no matter how it's expressed and comes with a very real cost - at heavy industrial energy industrial prices that's roughly $12 billion a year worth of electricity (will vary with location but that's a ballpark figure).
> 
> That's a decent sized energy overhead given the tiny market share Bitcoin has in terms of being a payment method for real world goods and services of any sort.



Another way of seeing btc is as a real world non digital srorage of used energy.as such, it has a value.
Look at it as a statue taking 200h of an artist time.
May not even be nice but the effort in creating it can be seen as a justification for its price,whereas many would find it hard to pay $ for a white A4 piece of paper sold as" a dot "artpiece
Aluminium was once seen as gold and a store of value without use.
This disappeared when manufacturing process changed and we were able to extract it.
While this argument is used by the save the planet narrative, this is a fake problem IMHO
What is the power consumption of FB..which is not a store of value...?
Disclaimer i own some bits of btc


----------



## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> Another way of seeing btc is as a real world non digital srorage of used energy.as such, it has a value.
> Look at it as a statue taking 200h of an artist time.
> May not even be nice but the effort in creating it can be seen as a justification for its price,whereas many would find it hard to pay $ for a white A4 piece of paper sold as" a dot "artpiece
> Aluminium was once seen as gold and a store of value without use.
> This disappeared when manufacturing process changed and we were able to extract it.
> While this argument is used by the save the planet narrative, this is a fake problem IMHO
> What is the power consumption of FB..which is not a store of value...?
> Disclaimer i own some bits of btc



For info
FB data server alone were using 5 terawatt h in 2019 
Obviously, a small part of FB useage as every phone and computer using it plus the internet inc storage and data center required is the lion share of the consumption for FB so orobably comparable..hard to know in a 5min check..
Back to crypto


----------



## over9k

"Bitcoin consumes more energy than Argentina"









						Bitcoin consumes 'more electricity than Argentina'
					

The rising value of Bitcoin leads to ever-higher energy consumption, researchers say.



					www.bbc.com
				



_
"The data from the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance shows that Bitcoin's electricity consumption of 121.05 terawatt-hours (TWh) surpasses that of Argentina at *121 TWh* and the United Arab Emirates at 113.20 TWh, and it close to that of Norway with a consumption of 122.20 TWh per year"._


----------



## sptrawler

Of more concern for bitcoin IMO, is when the 'woke' brigade take exception to the power usage and apply the climate change pressure on it.


----------



## over9k

I'd love to see how they're going to do that. Have you not seen those youtube videos of the massive warehouses with rows and rows and rows of mining rigs set up up in the chinese mountains? 

 

This is just one of _many. _


----------



## qldfrog

sptrawler said:


> Of more concern for bitcoin IMO, is when the 'woke' brigade take exception to the power usage and apply the climate change pressure on it.



Yes, not a problem a pretext, as often discussed, it has to be firty money: so dirty crime, dirty environment, dirty morally, etc.
If we had printed BTC banknotes, i can bet you  that these would be blamed for Covid.
Governments can not let BTC grow.


----------



## Smurf1976

sptrawler said:


> Of more concern for bitcoin IMO, is when the 'woke' brigade take exception to the power usage and apply the climate change pressure on it.



Personally I'm looking at it purely in financial terms.

High energy consumption is a real economic cost and creates an incentive for someone to come up with an alternative that doesn't have such high costs.

It's a _possible_ trigger for negative public perception and so on which would advantage a lower energy competitor. Whether that actually happens is uncertain but it's possible.

The big one though is more about what I'll refer to in generic terms as "the financial establishment" or "Wall Street banks" or anything else of that generic nature. I can't see why they'd be even slightly keen on something that's outside the realm of traditional finance and which to the extent it has a "natural" home, that home is nowhere even remotely close to New York or London.

That aspect leads me to think there'll be some very powerful entities keen to not have it go too far and while that's a bit on the "tin foil hat" side, I don't doubt that "big finance" does have at least some influence.

All that says nothing about the short term price action but it makes me cautious about the longer term situation with Bitcoin. I wouldn't be surprised if the concept ends up being a big thing but not actual Bitcoin itself.


----------



## sptrawler

Smurf1976 said:


> Personally I'm looking at it purely in financial terms.
> 
> High energy consumption is a real economic cost and creates an incentive for someone to come up with an alternative that doesn't have such high costs.
> 
> It's a _possible_ trigger for negative public perception and so on which would advantage a lower energy competitor. Whether that actually happens is uncertain but it's possible.
> 
> The big one though is more about what I'll refer to in generic terms as "the financial establishment" or "Wall Street banks" or anything else of that generic nature. I can't see why they'd be even slightly keen on something that's outside the realm of traditional finance and which to the extent it has a "natural" home, that home is nowhere even remotely close to New York or London.
> 
> That aspect leads me to think there'll be some very powerful entities keen to not have it go too far and while that's a bit on the "tin foil hat" side, I don't doubt that "big finance" does have at least some influence.
> 
> All that says nothing about the short term price action but it makes me cautious about the longer term situation with Bitcoin. I wouldn't be surprised if the concept ends up being a big thing but not actual Bitcoin itself.



As you know the governments aren't going to allow a 'black market' currency to exist, but would love to introduce a digital currency where every dollar can be traced.
A win/win situation for governments ATM, digital currency is becoming accepted as a trusted and reliable medium, if the governments tried to introduce it there would be a lot of backlash.
It is all good PR and free advertising for the governments ATM, no point popping the bubble yet. 
Just my opinion.


----------



## noirua

15 May 2021


----------



## noirua

Data shows the ‘Bitcoin price drops ahead of CME expiries’ claim is a myth
					

Many traders believe the narrative that Bitcoin price drops ahead of CME BTC futures expiries, but data shows the trend is all bark and no bite.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Historically, activity surrounding the Bitcoin (BTC) monthly futures and options expiry has been blamed for weakening bullish momentum. A few studies from 2019 found a 2.3% average drop in BTC price 40 hours before the CME futures settlement date.


----------



## gartley

Bulls will be in disbelief  in the weeks ahead, post # 710  and subsequent posts thereafter suggested this was a high probability sell based completed EW count and cycles.. The initial leg down was impressive, now the nasty wave C down is upon us.  The target range for this leg down: 36750-42186 and direction probably in line where the broader indices will head.
That range should present another buying opportunity for  good rally, how much and how sustainable of a rally remains to be seen....


----------



## ducati916

Technically, BTC looks like toast.





The problem with stuff that goes straight up is that it builds no natural support levels once it stops going straight up. The support level for this is attached to a 12 handle.

The next problem, assuming this takes a bit of time to trade down as the kool-aid drinkers fight it all the way, is that as time passes, the Sovereigns will be that much closer to issuing their own 'legal' cryptos and BTC/etc will have regulatory issues.


jog on
duc


----------



## againsthegrain

On previous dips all the other crypto got dragged down, this time looks different everybody is running to hills (alt coins)  after all that is what most btc bulls know


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I was speaking to a fellow drinker at the hotel today who's mate's, ex's, cousin's, gardener's, barber made $300,000 three weeks ago out of selling his bitcoin which he'd bought early in the piece. 

If that is not a bubble in crypto, I don't know what is. 

gg


----------



## Dark1975

Well btc dominance has dropped to 40% ... So


Dark1975 said:


> As predicted, 12hrs later as I posted i purchased bitcoin cash it has gained 50% , and cardano and other alt coins are now are on the move, should see massive moves other the next couple of weeks
> This is not finacial advice. Pls DYOR



As mentioned from my previous posts ...Cardino (ada) Xrp / xlm  and other alt coins are on the move..
As we still are in alt coin season.
Btc looks cooked atm , This looks to confirm on a technical and with recent media on energy usage and ellon musks tweets.
To be honest I've never invested in Btc for this reason, And i find it hilarious that people were not aware of btc's energy consumption before ellon musk tweeted this.

My trading plan has altered a little due to btc looking shaky.
Tho 85% of my portfolio is still in the alt coins. ( which 70 % of my porfolio with xrp /cardino and xlm have made 15% in the last 24hrs).

So hence i see money still flowing in the alt coins, Although Btc will start to correct like 2017, Money will go in to the alt coins.
I don't see a collapse in the crypto market atm, 
Nor do i see i collapse in the stock market ,
Purely trade the trend on the weekly chart, Use stop loss / 
With the endless printing of money and low interest rates , I intend to keep day trading with trend.
And people don't plan to fail. They fail to plan . 
Pls this isn't financial advice . Pls DYOR


----------



## over9k

Just in case anyone wants a quick & easy infographic they can ragepost all over social media with.


----------



## noirua

Inflation winds stiffen as Bitcoin ballast on balance sheets proves its value
					

Firms with iconoclastic leaders, like Musk and Dorsey, “would be the most likely to take the plunge” and commit sizable cash balances to crypto.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Elsewhere, Ark Investments commented in a company newsletter: “Microstrategy, Square, and now Tesla are showing public companies the way to add bitcoin as a legitimate alternative to cash on their balance sheets.”


----------



## qldfrog

A general post:
While subject to high volatility, cryptos are a pleasure to trade as:
They are available 24/7 on the narket and your SL are actually meaningfull with no weekend or end of session, etc to create jumps and cliffs
That continuity is a delight


----------



## qldfrog

being me , I probably managed to sell some BTC this morning at the low 56k AUD...the split order got some at 58k within less than a minute...if you need to get a low timing, just look at my sells


----------



## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> being me , I probably managed to sell some BTC this morning at the low 56k AUD...the split order got some at 58k within less than a minute...if you need to get a low timing, just look at my sells



these were bought below 9k /BTC..yes it was that low just a couple years ago so still a great return


----------



## Dark1975

So Tesla sells bitcoins .. panic sets in short term.


Though really got to ask the question did Ellon really  know that bitcoin used that much energy previously before he bought !

lol i doubt that with so many financial advisors telling him to sell btc cause after he announced that telsa was accepting bitcoin he was scared of the selloff from investors.....
And manipulation / pump and dump.


----------



## cutz

Without an underlying options markets and no short covering what's going to stop this beast from plummeting down to zero ?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Everyone is wrong. 

gg


----------



## moXJO

cutz said:


> Without an underlying options markets and no short covering what's going to stop this beast from plummeting down to zero ?



Fanaticism.


----------



## over9k

Dark1975 said:


> So Tesla sells bitcoins .. panic sets in short term.
> 
> 
> Though really got to ask the question did Ellon really  know that bitcoin used that much energy previously before he bought !
> 
> lol i doubt that with so many financial advisors telling him to sell btc cause after he announced that telsa was accepting bitcoin he was scared of the selloff from investors.....
> And manipulation / pump and dump.



I was just coming to post this. Expect armageddon tonight.


----------



## over9k

Lol. 

And now he tells us he hasn't sold his holdings: 









						Bitcoin Steadies as Musk Says Tesla Hasn’t Sold From Holdings
					

(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin steadied after Elon Musk said Tesla Inc. hasn’t sold from its holdings of the token, clarifying earlier comments that seemed to imply the electric vehicle maker may sell or has sold its stake.The largest digital currency was at $44,900 as of 7:21 a.m. in London on Monday...




					finance.yahoo.com


----------



## Joules MM1

qldfrog said:


> being me , I probably managed to sell some BTC this morning at the low 56k AUD...the split order got some at 58k within less than a minute...if you need to get a low timing, just look at my sells



old school trade
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/q/qKa9SIw8.png
the guideline is simple: break the neckline, fake breakdown, retake the neckline, retest that retake+impulsive bid structure=uber bull signal


----------



## noirua

Elon Musk tweets BTC price bottom? 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week
					

Bitcoin is feeling the pain from Elon Musk as price action stays bearish.




					cointelegraph.com
				





> “His ‘Tesla has not sold any Bitcoin’ tweet was posted exactly at Bitcoin's key technical level, the 61.8 fib ($42,845).”



THIS ALL SMELLS more than a  BIT 'MUSKY'.


----------



## moXJO

So he took down Tesla share price, bitcoin and doge. Bravo.


----------



## over9k

Bitcoin, coinbase & riot blockchain since coinbase's IPO: 




They IPO'd right when bitcoin peaked. You couldn't have asked for worse timing.


----------



## over9k

Previous resistance about to become new support? We shall see.


----------



## qldfrog

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Everyone is wrong.
> 
> gg



Tongue in cheek Mr GG or you have some specific ideas on cryptos?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

qldfrog said:


> Tongue in cheek Mr GG or you have some specific ideas on cryptos?



As in Little Britain, yer but no but yer but ...

I do see, as many have commented, the opportunity for short to medium-short traders, but I have found the time invested in such trading to manage the ante is too much for me. 

The question then arises, is bitcoin an investment. I don't believe so at these prices. 

Then again, I said similar when it was a mere fraction of this price.

I would like to get my head around bc but again the time invested would detract from other pursuits and matters.  

When one misses the boat does one berate oneself or decide to speak to the lady on the quay who smiles at you with an element of interest?

gg


----------



## qldfrog

Garpal Gumnut said:


> As in Little Britain, yer but no but yer but ...
> 
> I do see, as many have commented, the opportunity for short to medium-short traders, but I have found the time invested in such trading to manage the ante is too much for me.
> 
> The question then arises, is bitcoin an investment. I don't believe so at these prices.
> 
> Then again, I said similar when it was a mere fraction of this price.
> 
> I would like to get my head around bc but again the time invested would detract from other pursuits and matters.
> 
> When one misses the boat does one berate oneself or decide to speak to the lady on the quay who smiles at you with an element of interest?
> 
> gg



I see too big a risk with BTC gov conflict of interest;
I thought will keep one BTC just in case, got it but started selling 60% of this and just keep 0.4BTC just in case;
trade cryptos if I have time for hourly gain just because it is so easy to put buy sell and SL; in SL my SL were always crashed thru so not protecting anything;
I know that Peter2 and tech/a rely on SL as inherent part of their share trading and usually all good but I got personally so burnt by these I do not even use them anymore with shares.
But they are working as they should it seems with cryptos, or at least my crypto exchange..so my interest
so got a big profit from the BTC surge, cashed it and playing some of this with day trading


----------



## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> I see too big a risk with BTC gov conflict of interest;
> I thought will keep one BTC just in case, got it but started selling 60% of this and just keep 0.4BTC just in case;
> trade cryptos if I have time for hourly gain just because it is so easy to put buy sell and SL; in SL my SL were always crashed thru so not protecting anything;
> I know that Peter2 and tech/a rely on SL as inherent part of their share trading and usually all good but I got personally so burnt by these I do not even use them anymore with shares.
> But they are working as they should it seems with cryptos, or at least my crypto exchange..so my interest
> so got a big profit from the BTC surge, cashed it and playing some of this with day trading



_in SL my SL were always crashed thru s
I meant in share trading..asx.._


----------



## Dark1975

Re-charting  Btc, still slightly still optimistic on the crypto atm, Though needing support from btc.

Still currently 75% of my portfolio is on the table still on alt coins  - XRP /ada / Vet / xlm etc,  etc and 25% in cash and active crypto trades with stop loss activated .

1. My Reasoning for this : I still see the bull run 2 - 3 months before  topping due to -

a) current climate and current market cycle .. if anything i see sideway motion until fiscal policy changes ( due to low rates / excess money floating). Just see money going some where rather in saving at this current time.

b) the last cycle bull run in 2017 went parabolic , We haven't seen the same resemblance on the charting in the same way, Which concludes me to still see a run on alt coins.

Though in fact after seeing the U.S  pipeline getting hacked by Russians -

 1) As if this could happen with modern day security?
 2) asking for 5million dollars after hijacking eastern sea board energy is like a joke ..might as well get DR.EVIL TO ASK FOR " 1 million dollars?

Though leads my to believe the U.S allowed this to happen ,To quickly move everything to blockchain technology !! Reset !

Anyways we need btc to climb a few resistances before i see a reinsurance as attached

This isn't financial advice . pls DYOR


----------



## ducati916

Next stop for BTC $38K.

jog on
duc


----------



## qldfrog

ducati916 said:


> Next stop for BTC $38K.
> 
> jog on
> duc



I will just temporate to 49kAUD
I am sure you meant that, but less scary here😊
I actually agree so my 50pc btc portfolio sell.


----------



## gartley

Continues to crater.......


----------



## waterbottle

I don't think the bottom is in yet folks. If you frequent reddit, there's a lot of outrage directed towards Musk and many are of the opinion that bitcoin is now toast and other coins will rise - not saying that they're right but that's the perception and perception matters. 

I'm not in crypto, but this instrument has absorbed so much cash I. E. Fiat, that it has started to affect other markets - did someone say contagion? 

I'm watching this closely. Bitcoin is falling from all time highs, so is the DJI, and the NASDAQ and commodities (see lithium and rare earth prices, oil, iron ore). 

This is part of a global, multi instrument trend - double top anyone? .. Meanwhile the eurozone officially entered a double dip recession overnight. 

Hold on for the ride


----------



## waterbottle

Wow BTC now down 13%, almost 33% down from the peak....

Edit: looks like the PBOC doesn't want Bitcoin to be used for goods and services either....









						Central Bank of China Bans Crypto Trading For Institutions and Businesses
					

Three associates of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the Chinese central bank has issued a document prohibiting institutions and businesses from




					coingape.com


----------



## Roller_1

If 42160 level isn't reclaimed she could be in trouble! 

20k possibly? If so there will be some people a lot lighter in the wallets


----------



## Dark1975

Roller_1 said:


> If 42160 level isn't reclaimed she could be in trouble!
> 
> 20k possibly? If so there will be some people a lot lighter in the wallets
> 
> View attachment 124503



I think it is already in trouble , its broke the 55124 key line of resist, Will now maybe look to test the next 44857 if that breaks we could test the next at 38085 lvl,
Though personally i hope it does reach the 38k lvl as it would indicate a sharp rebound, Good opportunity to accumulate more XRP / and other alt coins like ADA and dot
PLS DYOR


----------



## waterbottle

Watching from the sidelines... Gotta admire the gusto when an instrument is in free fall and people are willing to catch it


----------



## over9k

waterbottle said:


> Watching from the sidelines... Gotta admire the gusto when an instrument is in free fall and people are willing to catch it



You could have made 100-150% return in six trades within a fortnight just buying riot after its big dips & flogging it literally the next day on its trip down.


----------



## waterbottle

over9k said:


> You could have made 100-150% return in six trades within a fortnight just buying riot after its big dips & flogging it literally the next day on its trip down.



Coulda, woulda, shoulda... 

I've learned enough to recognise when I could screw up a trade and this would certainly be one of them


----------



## moXJO

China did a ban on bitcoin or something.


----------



## ducati916

I have the next stop at $27K


jog on
duc


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Can one short bitcoin?

How does one go about it if so.?

gg


----------



## cutz

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Can one short bitcoin?
> 
> How does one go about it if so.?
> 
> gg




I've had a look,

Only method I have come up with without the counterparty risk are CME futures, huge margins required, mini futures are now available, I don't understand them enough to go anywhere near them. apparently CME options are also available .

I'm not sure how the futures are pegged to the bitcoin index, can't say I've really researched it, just find the whole phenomena interesting.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

cutz said:


> I've had a look,
> 
> Only method I come up with without the counterparty risk are CME futures, huge margins required, mini futures are now available, I don't understand them enough to go anywhere near them. apparently CME options are also available .
> 
> I'm not sure how the futures are pegged to the bitcoin index, can't say I've really researched it, just find the whole phenomena interesting.



With the large retracement in BTC recently I just thought I would ask.

Like you I'm an observer. For now at these crazy prices.

I'm still not convinced it is as secure as @Dark1975 believes. 

gg


----------



## gartley

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Can one short bitcoin?
> 
> How does one go about it if so.?
> 
> gg



ETF BTCE on the DAX. That's what use for buys and sells.  I have closed all my sells now as it hit my target zone. Probably has further to run but turning focus on indices for now


----------



## Dark1975

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm still not convinced it is as secure as @Dark1975 believes.



Well I am not here to make you a believer! But The IMF sure do believe in block chain as there using ripple to test digital currencies on there platform over the past two years and are close to lauching this soon! Once this case is over with S.E.C , I'm sure you will remember the word " XRP". Though maybe check the IMF home page !


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dark1975 said:


> Well I am not here to make you a believer! But The IMF sure do believe in block chain as there using ripple to test digital currencies on there platform over the past two years and are close to lauching this soon! Once this case is over with S.E.C , I'm sure you will remember the world XRP. Though maybe check the IMF home page !



I'm not saying the technology is not safe atm nor disbelieving you. 

As an investor or trader you have obviously done well on btc, and good luck to you.

I just know that humans being humans someone or some people at this very moment with more skills at the internets than I are probably trying to work out a way of cracking blockchain for nefarious purposes.

And then Elon may forget to take his tablets one morning.

I'd only be able to pull out the plug. 

gg


----------



## againsthegrain

Dark1975 said:


> Well I am not here to make you a believer! But The IMF sure do believe in block chain as there using ripple to test digital currencies on there platform over the past two years and are close to lauching this soon! Once this case is over with S.E.C , I'm sure you will remember the world XRP. Though maybe check the IMF home page !



Speaking of the case and sec is there any hearings coming up in the near future?


----------



## Dark1975

againsthegrain said:


> Speaking of the case and sec is there any hearings coming up in the near future?



21st of may is the next hearing


----------



## againsthegrain

Dark1975 said:


> 21st of may is the next hearing




Thanx,  will keep a close eye


----------



## Dark1975

againsthegrain said:


> Thanx,  will keep a close eye



Your Welcome


----------



## waterbottle

Looks like we've got 38k on BTC. Meanwhile ripple, ethereum, doge have lost 25%...


----------



## qldfrog

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Can one short bitcoin?
> 
> How does one go about it if so.?
> 
> gg



there is a crypto related ETF in the US: BLOK, not sure it can be shorted but I think it can be.
just looked at crypto console, hard to be worse:


----------



## cutz

Just a personal opinion, if I wanted to be short crypto my idea would be bear/put option spreads on COIN, similar to the TSLA big short or step it up with a bear/calls coupled with long puts


----------



## over9k

waterbottle said:


> Wow BTC now down 13%, almost 33% down from the peak....
> 
> Edit: looks like the PBOC doesn't want Bitcoin to be used for goods and services either....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Central Bank of China Bans Crypto Trading For Institutions and Businesses
> 
> 
> Three associates of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the Chinese central bank has issued a document prohibiting institutions and businesses from
> 
> 
> 
> 
> coingape.com



Pfft. Riot's down 67% and down another 10% premarket. I might actually buy some on this dip. 


Garpal Gumnut said:


> Can one short bitcoin?
> 
> How does one go about it if so.?
> 
> gg



Bitcoin directly or just anything effected by it?

There's some pretty serious contagion going on giving you myriad opportunities to short the **** out of anything linked to it (you can obviously see my stock of choice)


----------



## waterbottle

I live vicariously through you


----------



## cutz

over9k said:


> Pfft. Riot's down 67% and down another 10% premarket. I might actually buy some on this dip.
> 
> Bitcoin directly or just anything effected by it?
> 
> There's some pretty serious contagion going on giving you myriad opportunities to short the **** out of anything linked to it (you can obviously see my stock of choice)




CME futures look like they are about to freefall through 30K !!


----------



## over9k

Dropped another 1% just in the time it took me to take the screencap.


----------



## over9k

Cathie wood now banging on about what % of bitcoin is mined with renewable energy, how that amount is increasing etc etc. 

Think she might be exposed and trying to repump it perhaps?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

From the BBC just now.



> For anyone who has followed the cryptocurrency scene for a while the events of recent weeks are a familiar story.
> Some random event - say a tweet from Elon Musk announcing Tesla will accept cryptocurrency payments - sends Bitcoin to new highs, and people begin to say it's winning mainstream acceptance.
> Then another random event happens, perhaps a change of course from the Tesla tycoon. It comes tumbling down again, and talk of it going mainstream fades into the background.
> Last month, in a chatroom on Clubhouse (another phenomenon that seems to be swinging from boom to bust) I expressed some scepticism about crypto-currencies.
> Up popped a senior figure from London's thriving fintech scene: "Rory, Rory," he chided me, "crypto is becoming an accepted asset class".
> With big City institutions taking an interest, that had a ring of truth - back in April at least.
> But this week the weather had changed with the Financial Times reporting "new doubts among institutional fund managers over the future of crypto-currencies as an asset class".
> My mind went back to 2013 when I had first taken an interest in Bitcoin. In a report for Radio 4's PM programme I had bought a pizza for 0.5 BTC, a tortuous process which had not seemed worth the £30 it cost back then - of course at today's exchange rate that was a £14,000 pizza.
> I had also written a blog post headlined "The Bitcoin Bubble", in which I tried to mine some lessons from a period when the price of the cryptocurrency shot up from $15 to $276 and then hurtled lower again.
> I ended a piece in which I compared the cryptocurrency with 17th century Dutch tulips or London houses in the 1980s with this thought:
> "Unless and until Bitcoin can be used to buy a sandwich, or be accepted by your friends when you pay them back for a restaurant meal, then it is likely to remain just a playground for geeks and gamblers."
> Eight years on it is still virtually impossible to buy a sandwich with Bitcoin - or a pizza, despite a move by one booster to set up a Bitcoin pizza chain.
> And why would you want to when there's a good chance you'll be mocked a few years later - as I've been for my transaction - for giving away an asset that goes on to soar in value?




gg


----------



## ducati916

At what level of purchase does a kool-aid drinker, HODler, feel safe to hold on?

Behavioural economics has established that the fear/pain of loss far outweighs the pleasure/courage of winning. BTC bounced a little at the $28K level, where there was the second support point this year, the first being at $43K, which held as solid as butter encountering the hot knife.

That support at $28K was not 'buying'. That was short covering. Which means that there is far more pain to come. You think the HODlers at the $28K level are up to the task? Not a chance. At the moment they are twittering amongst themselves promising to hold etc. while looking to sell as fast as possible.

There are no buyers. Whether it was Mr Musk, China, whatever, the dream for the moment, is over.

Next stop $20K, where we repeat the exercise.

The bottom is between $10K - $12K. I think that level will HODler. After that it depends on whether there is any buying interest. We'll find out soon enough.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

We are already back down to below $38K. The time that took was 1 post, 1 kettle to boil and 1 cup of coffee.




A $200 spread. WTF.

jog on
duc


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I learnt an important lesson as a child from my uncle Kunwari Gumnut who bought and sold antiques and knick-knacks at auction. 

He used to say to me as we sat in his Citroën DS 19, Garpal always remember after the sale, think back to today's sale and ask yourself would you rather have been a buyer or a seller today. 

Use your answer tomorrow at auction when you listen and watch the bids and auctioneer and also the storeman bringing the lots out, especially the storeman.

Well may BTC buyers and sellers today remember Uncle Kunwari Gumnut's sage advice. 

It is the vibe.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

This my opinion only, but all my charting, trading and life experience ( gg being greedy and gg being fearful ) tells me that BCN will drop below $US 34,000 and go further to $US 24,000 or $US 14,000 within the next week. 

This is TA 101. Lower highs lower lows = Downtrend. Expect a similar fall or 50% of a fall with each major $ point reached.                                                54-34-24-14.

gg


----------



## waterbottle

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This my opinion only, but all my charting, trading and life experience ( gg being greedy and gg being fearful ) tells me that BCN will drop below $US 34,000 and go further to $US 24,000 or $US 14,000 within the next week.
> 
> This is TA 101. Lower highs lower lows = Downtrend. Expect a similar fall or 50% of a fall with each major $ point reached.                                                54-34-24-14.
> 
> gg
> 
> View attachment 124578



Agreed, we should get a direction soon... Interestingly the NASDAQ broke through 13000 support at the same time... They seem to be correlated, at least for now.


----------



## grah33

think it's gonna rise  from here ,anyone?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

grah33 said:


> think it's gonna rise  from here ,anyone?



All the BTC traders are still abed. 

It is only 3 am in New York and even though it is a 24 hour market they still need their sleep. 

I don't think it is going to rise from here but I wouldn't trust a word that I say, or indeed anyone, including my old mates Elon and Mr. Xi, would say about BTC. 

gg


----------



## Joules MM1

"price specific" thread

nice


----------



## Joe Blow

Joules MM1 said:


> "price specific" thread
> 
> nice




For those who are focused on trading cryptocurrencies, there is also the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading thread.


----------



## Trendnomics

Man this crash is good watching (reading #bitcoin) 🍿🍿.

The memes are not gonna save anyone.


----------



## frugal.rock

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This my opinion only, but all my charting, trading and life experience ( gg being greedy and gg being fearful ) tells me that BCN will drop below $US 34,000 and go further to $US 24,000 or $US 14,000 within the next week.



My memory of ballpark calcs I did a few years ago would put the current cost in electricity (Western country) to mine a bitcoin at around USD $20k to $24k each.
So, once it gets to "cost" levels, if all else stays the same, it's all pile in again, no?

When you say "here" @grah33 , I can't see where your hand is at...
Are you patting a Chihuahua?
Because that's about where I expect it to go....


grah33 said:


> think it's gonna rise  from here ,anyone?


----------



## Trendnomics

Strange that there are so many people now being emotional over "fiat" currency losses....

You are still HODL'ing the same amount of crypto currency - to the mooooon baby!


----------



## over9k

Elon is still at it


----------



## qldfrog

I


Trendnomics said:


> Strange that there are so many people now being emotional over "fiat" currency losses....
> 
> You are still HODL'ing the same amount of crypto currency - to the mooooon baby!



 Just now my cash in the bank is higher more due to btc than my share systems..and did zip work on btc.whereas my hourly rate for system building must be negative after electricity bill😊
Btc is freedom, and no satisfaction seing it crushed alongside democracy, sciences , independant thinking in a world where even Orwell's nighmare seems benign.


----------



## qldfrog

Was a nice dream.rip


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> View attachment 124755
> View attachment 124754
> 
> 
> Elon is still at it



Elon trying to save his reputation. It was bad timing on his part but his tweet is perceived by "dumb money" to have crashed the market. 
Hope the grifter loses billions and keeps getting sht on.


----------



## moXJO

Trendnomics said:


> Strange that there are so many people now being emotional over "fiat" currency losses....
> 
> You are still HODL'ing the same amount of crypto currency - to the mooooon baby!



I'm super pissed that this cycle is over. 4 years between drinks sucks.
We still have stock and housing market crashes to go yet, so back to pissy returns in the future.

Crypto was just insane gains.


----------



## Trendnomics

qldfrog said:


> Btc is freedom, and no satisfaction seing it crushed alongside democracy, sciences , independant thinking in a world where even Orwell's nighmare seems benign.






moXJO said:


> We still have stock and housing market crashes to go yet, so back to pissy returns in the future.




Crypto currencies to me are sirens (LINK) - risky distractions from trading assets with real intrinsic value.

Blockchain technology definitely here to stay - can't say so much for all the coins.


----------



## againsthegrain

Always wanted to use this quote, feels like it fits the situation


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I have told Elon that a line is the shortest distance between two points. 

This was his reply.




You guys probably don't remember Howard Hughes. Richest man in his day. Mad as a cut snake. 

Elon is in danger of not being allowed follow me on Twitter if he doesn't see a Nut Doc.  

His DM's are even worse than his posts. 

Then there is BTC. Next stop ??????

gg


----------



## moXJO

Trendnomics said:


> Crypto currencies to me are sirens (LINK) - risky distractions from trading assets with real intrinsic value.
> 
> Blockchain technology definitely here to stay - can't say so much for all the coins.



All I see are herd greed/fear trading. Stocks are institutional playgrounds. Little guys got rich off crypto.

I think this meme captured the whole crypto world to a T at the moment. From rich to "Do you want fries with that"





Or this one


----------



## over9k

I guess it would depend on when you bought


----------



## moXJO

So gas prices on eth are right down. Activity is low as everyone sits tight to see which way this is going. Now because activity is low it can dump with little volume. But I'm thinking the fear is dissipating. News cycle is important from here.


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> I guess it would depend on when you bought



A lot of late bloomers got rekt.

Oh the memes


----------



## matty77

If this bull run is over.. and it probably is.

This time I did a lot better then the last one, managed to bag a few 3000% gains, got everything I originally put in out including for tax while still having about 70% left in.. 

At one point last year I was 80% in the hole from original investment.

Didn't achieve my goal in regards to increasing my BTC holdings though, but hopefully if the price continues to drop might be some opportunities later.

If we just had another month of BULL would have been better as I wanted to be out before new financial year anyway.

Biggest lesson I learnt was - take profits. That's a hard lesson and one I still struggle with...


----------



## grah33

Elon is still holding though


----------



## grah33

frugal.rock said:


> My memory of ballpark calcs I did a few years ago would put the current cost in electricity (Western country) to mine a bitcoin at around USD $20k to $24k each.
> So, once it gets to "cost" levels, if all else stays the same, it's all pile in again, no?
> 
> When you say "here" @grah33 , I can't see where your hand is at...
> Are you patting a Chihuahua?
> Because that's about where I expect it to go....



then down u expect it to go.


----------



## grah33

the people who missed out on the run are probably quite  happy


----------



## over9k

You've seen my posts about RIOT. There's plenty of money to be made


----------



## matty77

I'd love to see BTC drop to $18-20k USD and then maintain support there will be fine.


----------



## sptrawler

Interesting article on bitcoin, I read it and still don't understand it. 😂 








						Bitcoin and tulips have a lot in common. Will their investors share the same fate?
					

Bitcoin could go beyond $US100,000 sometime in the near future. But if everyone suddenly decides to abide by the rules of economics and starts acting rationally, be prepared to lose everything, writes Ian Verrender.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> You've seen my posts about RIOT. There's plenty of money to be made



You need to be trading a jazzier named coin like $ASSCOIN, $PooRocket or the classy $Putinclassic. 
No one's going to take a coin named RIOT seriously.


----------



## matty77

ALT coins have possibly had there day for this run, so if you are going to trade them you will want a quick entry/exit or you will get burned. If we get another bump up be prepared for weak hands to sell ALTS as soon as they are in profit, the last few weeks have scared a few people I think.

When we know the bull market is over officially you can expect most of these to lose 90% of value fairly quickly.

Keep that in mind.


----------



## qldfrog

BTC reached 50k again, made $23 profit trading a fraction while working on my systems: buy, put SL, raise SL ,keep an eye for SL going thru trigger, get your free coffees on sale 20 min playing with $1.6k
Or a smashed avocado on toast, a shame i am no millennial ;-)


----------



## over9k

moXJO said:


> You need to be trading a jazzier named coin like $ASSCOIN, $PooRocket or the classy $Putinclassic.
> No one's going to take a coin named RIOT seriously.



Good evening, all ye unfaithful:


----------



## over9k

Lol.




Hanging out for yet another dip tomorrow now


----------



## over9k

over9k said:


> Really gotta wonder if it's market manipulation though. *Have they sold all of theirs off, torpedoing it with the tweet, and we'll soon see a "Due to developments in bitcoin mining technology making it far greener than it previously was blah blah blah we're now going to start accepting it again" policy & accompanying tweet?*
> 
> Classic pump, dump, repump?
> 
> 
> There's no way he's not aware of how much he can/does manipulate markets simply through his actions.




Nek minnut: 




Start buying.


----------



## over9k

Just in case anyone's wondering just how volatile this thing actually is. A $14,000 movement in a single day is off the hook.


----------



## over9k

Also, aftermarket numbers:




Standard one day turnaround (so a plummet tomorrow) seems to still be in effect. We shall see!


----------



## moXJO

moXJO said:


> You need to be trading a jazzier named coin like $ASSCOIN, $PooRocket or the classy $Putinclassic.



Disclaimer: do not buy these coins


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> Nek minnut:
> 
> View attachment 124828
> 
> 
> Start buying.



News cycle for the win!

 Seeing some positive news and people getting greedy again across multiple forums. Lots of people sold at the bottom though.

Bitcoin not going under $20k was taken as a bullish sign by Bitcoin faithful. I still think we rally and weaker hands shake out to break even across a lot of coins. But short term trades are still netting 100s% on some of these sht coins.


----------



## over9k

Mm but we're back below the 40 mark now. As I said, it's been a literal one day turnaround every time so far so let's see what tomorrow (tonight) brings.


----------



## BlindSquirrel

I gots me some hopium.


Falling wedge target push to ~60k, coming back to the 0.618 fib then launching to complete an inverse H&S pattern with a target to $90k.

Lock it in Eddie!!


----------



## over9k

What makes you say that squirrell?


----------



## BlindSquirrel

We're still in a bull market. There's a LOT of blind optimism in there, and some rudimentary TA knowledge.

My FTX leveraged account got decimated by last week's crash. Only the staked FTT, SOL & RAY are left along with a couple of bull tokens which are currently at cents in the dollar of the initial investment. For future degenerate trading I'll create a subaccount to quarantine them.
I've got several other exchanges where I hold spot tokens so I'm still 3x up from last year, just not 7x like I was a month ago.

Giving back profit sucks and I would not recommend it.


----------



## moXJO

Rally and bounce down as everyone tries to lock in gains or minimise losses. 
People are just going to sell into rallies.
Good short term trades though


----------



## Dark1975

BlindSquirrel said:


> I gots me some hopium.
> View attachment 124849
> 
> Falling wedge target push to ~60k, coming back to the 0.618 fib then launching to complete an inverse H&S pattern with a target to $90k.
> 
> Lock it in Eddie!!



I don't see that playing out now, i see another sharp leg down, 
Its distribution stage, 
Exactly playing out to the wave count, 
I'm expecting another leg down possibly lower than 41k , and I seen a retesting 
Which I hope so , so i can swing trade it all again .
This aint any finacial advice 😉pls DYOR


----------



## Dark1975

BlindSquirrel said:


> We're still in a bull market. There's a LOT of blind optimism in there, and some rudimentary TA knowledge.
> 
> My FTX leveraged account got decimated by last week's crash. Only the staked FTT, SOL & RAY are left along with a couple of bull tokens which are currently at cents in the dollar of the initial investment. For future degenerate trading I'll create a subaccount to quarantine them.
> I've got several other exchanges where I hold spot tokens so I'm still 3x up from last year, just not 7x like I was a month ago.
> 
> Giving back profit sucks and I would not recommend it.



And can i ask what makes you think we in a bull rally still?
Cause i was still bullish till the 19th of may until the 200ema was broken, If it breaks the daily time frame i can understand the sediment but breaking the 200emA concludes bull run is over in the short term,
And i only see a retesting and possible slow build up over time to regain confidence.
A lot ppl got crushed in the last leg down to  41k , Even myself i didn't lose though gave a lot of profits up.
I've now conceded to a new trading plan which is  just swing trading between the zones of 41- 55 k for btc, Short term trades, And
makes good short term trades of this volatility


----------



## over9k

I posted elon's market manipulation up above. C'mon, I'll bet you a fiver that tesla starts reaccepting bitcoin as payment sometime soon


----------



## BlindSquirrel

The previous highs for each bull run have been a blow off top. This one is much too flat around 60-65k. I believe we're going to 6 figures in USD by end of 2021.


----------



## over9k

Assertions are worthless without reasoning squirrel. Tell us why.


----------



## Dark1975

over9k said:


> I posted elon's market manipulation up above. C'mon, I'll bet you a fiver that tesla starts reaccepting bitcoin as payment sometime soon



You think his reddit followers are still listening to him after they got crushed by his tweets? Or do you think he commands still that much favour with the people ! I think not , I have a reddit account and ppl are trying to campaign boycott telsa for e.g plus i see the wall street beats are trying to short telsa now in kind ..


----------



## BlindSquirrel

I love how the fact that a tweet can push the price around allegedly "has wall street spooked" and shows how volatile BTC is so it isn't yet "Mature" (this is all according to news media at the moment). 
Whereas Donald Trump tweets moving the S&P for the last 4 years was perfectly acceptable.


----------



## over9k

Dark1975 said:


> You think his reddit followers are still listening to him after they got crushed by his tweets? Or do you think he commands still that much favour with the people ! I think not , I have a reddit account and ppl are trying to campaign boycott telsa for e.g plus i see the wall street beats are trying to short telsa now in kind ..



Tesla ran hard yesterday. 

A few degenerates on WSB can't do a damn thing.


----------



## Dark1975

over9k said:


> Tesla ran hard yesterday.
> 
> A few degenerates on WSB can't do a damn thing.



Yes tesla ran well with the Nasdaq yesterday , Though since Feb highs a downtrend , And I'd say there not the only ones shorting tesla😉


----------



## noirua

Argo Blockchain (LSE: ARB), a global leader in cryptocurrency mining, is pleased to announce that on Sunday 23 May 2021, leading North American miners came together to discuss ESG issues related to Bitcoin mining with Elon Musk. The meeting was organised by Michael Saylor who chaired a productive 90-minute call resulting in the group agreeing to form a Bitcoin Mining Council to collectively promote energy transparency and improve sustainable mining practices. Alongside Argo Blockchain, companies in attendance included: MicroStrategy, Galaxy Digital, Hut 8, Marathon, HIVE, Core Scientific, Blockcap and Riot Blockchain.

Peter Wall, Chief Executive of Argo Blockchain, said: "Today is a good day for the planet. Sustainability has always been at the heart of Argo's mining operations and the newly-formed Bitcoin Mining Council is the next logical step in fostering a sectoral shift towards renewable energy. I enjoyed speaking with Elon Musk about these issues this weekend, and look forward to joining Michael Saylor and other leading North American miners in working to future-proof an industry that must collectively improve sustainable mining practices and take ESG concerns seriously."








						Bitcoin Mining Council emerges following meeting with Michael Saylor and Elon Musk
					

The Bitcoin mining industry is stepping up efforts to mine the digital asset in a more sustainable way.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## moXJO

NFTs getting a pump in the news. Seems like it may build the excitement again.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/mon...0/news-story/523babda1e718857cb21d8e5963ca831


----------



## moXJO

Could be just some scrub. But a good breakdown.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1397106939193085952.html

Or from Twitter: (multipost thread)


----------



## over9k

Resistance well & truly busted today. Tech everywhere's mooning actually.




The easy money's been made now, now I have to time a rebuy. Might throw an order in at the previous resistance level as this thing seems to like to move in steps.


----------



## over9k

4% selloff immediately aftermarket. Tomorrow might be a winner for a rebuy.


----------



## noirua

WARNING: Thinking of investing in Bitcoin or other Cryptocurrencies?​Here's what you should know:

If you've been contacted by a 'trader' promising big profits and offering to help you invest in cryptocurrency, this is a scam. See Cryptocurrency investment fraud - Action Fraud.
*The above is a UK based website though information is of a general worldwide nature.

- Always have control of your cryptocurrency wallet. If you didn't set the wallet up yourself or can't access the money in the wallet, this is a scam. You should stop making payments immediately.
- Many cryptocurrency sellers are not registered with the UK Financial Conduct Authority. Always use a firm that is on the Registered FCA list which can be found on the FCA website. You should also check the Temporarily Registered list which can be found on the same page.
- If you ignore the above advice you could lose all of your money.
*FCA is a UK government website.

*23 March 2016:
As a result of the agreement signed today, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) will refer to one another those innovative businesses seeking to enter the other's market. The regulators will provide support to innovative businesses before, during and after authorisation to help reduce regulatory uncertainty and time to market.




__





						British and Australian financial regulators sign agreement to support innovative businesses
					

Under a world-first agreement, innovative fintech companies in Australia and the United Kingdom will have more support from financial regulators as they attempt to enter the others’ market.




					www.fca.org.uk
				






			https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/mou/fca-asic-cooperation-agreement.pdf


----------



## gartley

25K is looming, by which time most bulls will have thrown in the towel for this leg down....


----------



## BlindSquirrel

25k seems like a bit of a stretch. We've got 3x bull divs on the daily timeframe and a falling wedge



Having said that, I'm not leveraged long yet.


----------



## gartley

BlindSquirrel said:


> 25k seems like a bit of a stretch. We've got 3x bull divs on the daily timeframe and a falling wedge
> View attachment 125268
> 
> Time will tell.....  But take RSI probably not the best tool imo.   Could be a falling wedge, might also be a contracting triangle which means we get a sharp thrust down to end this leg down.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Just watching the price of BTC in $USD today it seems to be Technical Analysis taken to extremes. As soon as a head n shoulders, trend line or MA for example is reached, bump it goes up or down. 

Its a 50/50 coin toss though on direction. 

Better than the Casino I suppose. 

gg


----------



## sptrawler

The ATO are monitoring bitcoin transactions? To scare or not to scare, that is the question. 








						Stiff ATO penalties for failure to declare crypto profits
					

Data matching comes to the fore as ATO targets taxpayers who fail to report cryptocurrency trading profits.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:
The ATO is collecting data from crypto exchanges and comparing it to amounts entered on tax returns to determine any tax liability.

Failure to declare crypto capital gains, where the ATO determines the taxpayer intentionally disregards the law, can attract a penalty of 75 per cent of the outstanding tax liability, plus the tax itself and interest on the shortfall.
With cryptocurrency prices rocketing and sharemarkets experiencing a major bounce in the past financial year, Adrian Raftery, founder of Mr Taxman, says many taxpayers will have big capital gains to declare in their returns this year.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, was worth about $14,000 at the start of the 2020-21 financial year and is now changing hands for about $49,000.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is up more than 20 per cent over the 2020-21 year.

A capital gain or loss can be realised if an investor converts a cryptocurrency’s worth into Australian dollars or exchanges one virtual currency for another, Raftery says.


----------



## qldfrog

sptrawler said:


> The ATO are monitoring bitcoin transactions? To scare or not to scare, that is the question.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Stiff ATO penalties for failure to declare crypto profits
> 
> 
> Data matching comes to the fore as ATO targets taxpayers who fail to report cryptocurrency trading profits.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.smh.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From the article:
> The ATO is collecting data from crypto exchanges and comparing it to amounts entered on tax returns to determine any tax liability.
> 
> Failure to declare crypto capital gains, where the ATO determines the taxpayer intentionally disregards the law, can attract a penalty of 75 per cent of the outstanding tax liability, plus the tax itself and interest on the shortfall.
> With cryptocurrency prices rocketing and sharemarkets experiencing a major bounce in the past financial year, Adrian Raftery, founder of Mr Taxman, says many taxpayers will have big capital gains to declare in their returns this year.
> Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, was worth about $14,000 at the start of the 2020-21 financial year and is now changing hands for about $49,000.
> 
> The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is up more than 20 per cent over the 2020-21 year.
> 
> A capital gain or loss can be realised if an investor converts a cryptocurrency’s worth into Australian dollars or exchanges one virtual currency for another, Raftery says.



getting a bit old and bored by these ATO PR.
every year here they go:
do not claim expenses you are not due to etc..after 20y of that crap:
just do your tax return properly, and yes if you have CG from crypto or others just declare it;I do
I am just worried by the incompetence of these guys
I once had an issue where they claimed I owed them $20 or so on shares CG; I redid all computations and I had actually paid around $50 too much;
, spent numerous hours, email, calls visit:
an absolute wall of incompetence and i ultimately paid $20 just to close the matter with the ATO sending me a stern missive of
 DO NOT DO IT AGAIN, WE HAVE BEEN NICE NOT TO GIVE PENALTIES...That at a time where I was paying 100's k in taxes
a bunch of bullies and losers who can make laws as they see fit and will NEVER admit being wrong.
No lesson from these guys and I actually pity the poor bastards who are found guilty while innocent;
all this in a country where you learn that millions have not filled a tax return in years
Probably not the same people....


----------



## sptrawler

qldfrog said:


> getting a bit old and bored by these ATO PR.
> every year here they go:
> do not claim expenses you are not due to etc..after 20y of that crap:
> just do your tax return properly, and yes if you have CG from crypto or others just declare it;I do
> I am just worried by the incompetence of these guys
> I once had an issue where they claimed I owed them $20 or so on shares CG; I redid all computations and I had actually paid around $50 too much;
> , spent numerous hours, email, calls visit:
> an absolute wall of incompetence and i ultimately paid $20 just to close the matter with the ATO sending me a stern missive of
> DO NOT DO IT AGAIN, WE HAVE BEEN NICE NOT TO GIVE PENALTIES...That at a time where I was paying 100's k in taxes
> a bunch of bullies and losers who can make laws as they see fit and will NEVER admit being wrong.
> No lesson from these guys and I actually pity the poor bastards who are found guilty while innocent;
> all this in a country where you learn that millions have not filled a tax return in years
> Probably not the same people....



I had similar, was away O/S came home to a debt collectors letter, which when I checked out the offence it was their error I had done nothing wrong.
But I had to notify the debt collector, that I was prepared to pay the fine, so that the ATO could open an investigation and close it. 😜
Apparently once it has been sent to collections, $hits are trumps, weird mob the ATO. 
A law unto themselves, make the rules, so they don't lose face.


----------



## qldfrog

sptrawler said:


> I had similar, was away O/S came home to a debt collectors letter, which when I checked out the offence it was their error I had done nothing wrong.
> But I had to notify the debt collector, that I was prepared to pay the fine, so that the ATO could open an investigation and close it. 😜
> Apparently once it has been sent to collections, $hits are trumps, weird mob the ATO.
> A law unto themselves, make the rules, so they don't lose face.



they either lose bonus etc but indeed, they can not admit being wrong, probably because if they ever did you could sue them for your time wasted etc so whatever mistake they do, they have to make sure you end up owing them something...
probably one of these situations where it is better to bend over and take it than fighting for law, rules,  justice and fair. This is so last century.But having them toying with cryptos is scary...


----------



## Skate

*As a refresher*
It's a short 8-minute YouTube video "Packer versus the Government". This gem should be compulsory viewing for all. Tax is briefly touched on at the 7:31 mark. 

*Grab a coffee & enjoy the entire video*
Don't fast forward to the 7:31 minute mark but take the time to enjoy the words of a fair dinkum Aussie.



Skate.


----------



## noirua

sptrawler said:


> The ATO are monitoring bitcoin transactions? To scare or not to scare, that is the question.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Stiff ATO penalties for failure to declare crypto profits
> 
> 
> Data matching comes to the fore as ATO targets taxpayers who fail to report cryptocurrency trading profits.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.smh.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From the article:
> The ATO is collecting data from crypto exchanges and comparing it to amounts entered on tax returns to determine any tax liability.
> 
> Failure to declare crypto capital gains, where the ATO determines the taxpayer intentionally disregards the law, can attract a penalty of 75 per cent of the outstanding tax liability, plus the tax itself and interest on the shortfall.
> With cryptocurrency prices rocketing and sharemarkets experiencing a major bounce in the past financial year, Adrian Raftery, founder of Mr Taxman, says many taxpayers will have big capital gains to declare in their returns this year.
> Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, was worth about $14,000 at the start of the 2020-21 financial year and is now changing hands for about $49,000.
> 
> The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is up more than 20 per cent over the 2020-21 year.
> 
> A capital gain or loss can be realised if an investor converts a cryptocurrency’s worth into Australian dollars or exchanges one virtual currency for another, Raftery says.



Unfortunately Australia, UK, United States etc,. have capital gains tax and the reason many have given up their USA citizenship. Countries like Hong Kong, New Zealand, British Channel Islands ( not part of the UK ), Singapore, Switzerland, Monaco, Malaysia, Belize... have no capital gains tax. Some like Jersey allow high value residency if a person pays a lot of tax to Jersey - something the EU has crossed swords with the UK on. How can they be part of Britain but not the UK. The channel islands were party of Normandy, now France. Many Australians have dual citizenship with Guernsey or Jersey. One Aussie I know married a lady from Sark who makes her money being a director of many companies registered there and they return for two months every year due to the regulations.








						9 Expat-Friendly Countries with No Capital Gains Taxes
					

"These expat-friendly countries with no capital gains taxes encourage you to invest in their economies while optimizing your tax. See them all here."




					nomadcapitalist.com
				











						Residents are tops in `Sark Lark' money spinner
					

Residents of the tiny Channel Island of Sark stumbled upon a lucrative line of business many years ago




					www.irishtimes.com


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin 2021 conference Miami: Here’s what you missed so far
					

Catch up on the action from Bitcoin 2021 in Miami, Florida.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin price gains 6% as Bloomberg analyst favors $40K over $20K next
					

Bitcoin price action favors $40,000 over $20,000, an analyst says.




					cointelegraph.com
				



In a tweet on Wednesday, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, argued that Bitcoin would sooner see a return to $40,000 than its 2017 all-time highs of $20,000.


----------



## Stockbailx

noirua said:


> In a tweet on Wednesday, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, argued that Bitcoin would sooner see a return to $40,000 than its 2017 all-time highs of $20,000.
> 
> 
> Bitcoin Slump Stokes Fears of 'Mass Capitulation,' But Hodlers Stand firm'.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Investing.com – Bitcoin slumped Tuesday, and some warn a breach below $30,000 could trigger “mass capitulation” as negative noise is poised to continue ahead of the G7 meeting June 10, but amidst the selling, longer-term holders continue to hold the line.​



It could go either way...


----------



## BlindSquirrel

There seems to be a few South American countries lining up to make BTC an official currency. El Salvador is first.








						Politicians in Panama, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay look to follow El Salvador on Bitcoin adoption - Stockhead
					

Lawmakers from Panama, Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil are looking to follow El Salvador's lead in adopting Bitcoin.




					stockhead.com.au


----------



## frugal.rock

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Its a 50/50 coin toss though on direction.
> 
> Better than the Casino I suppose.



How is it better?
There's no cards to count...ahem.

I hear that....;
At the casino, you may get free drinks, or free hotel rooms, or free food, parking etc
And you can play two up... gets those coins on that kip and HEAD EM UP SPINNER !


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

frugal.rock said:


> How is it better?
> There's no cards to count...ahem.
> 
> I hear that....;
> At the casino, you may get free drinks, or free hotel rooms, or free food, parking etc
> And you can play two up... gets those coins on that kip and HEAD EM UP SPINNER !



At the casino there is a concept called "House Edge". It applies to everything one bets on, even roulette which is my favourite. 

So fifty/fifty is fair odds on BTC. 

Alas the concept of "Money for nothing and chicks for free" exists only in song. 

https://www.casino.org/features/house-edge/

gg


----------



## againsthegrain

Garpal Gumnut said:


> At the casino there is a concept called "House Edge". It applies to everything one bets on, even roulette which is my favourite.
> 
> So fifty/fifty is fair odds on BTC.
> 
> Alas the concept of "Money for nothing and chicks for free" exists only in song.
> 
> https://www.casino.org/features/house-edge/
> 
> gg




casino war (whoever draws a higher card) is prob as close to 50/50  but im sure there is a table fee just like in poker to make up for no house edge much like the everhated double 0 tables


----------



## wayneL

Garpal Gumnut said:


> At the casino there is a concept called "House Edge". It applies to everything one bets on, even roulette which is my favourite.
> 
> So fifty/fifty is fair odds on BTC.
> 
> Alas the concept of "Money for nothing and chicks for free" exists only in song.
> 
> https://www.casino.org/features/house-edge/
> 
> gg



Contest risk (brokerage + MM spread) = house edge.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

wayneL said:


> Contest risk (brokerage + MM spread) = house edge.





gg


----------



## sptrawler

I always thought blackjack, gave the punter the best odds?
But not being a casino regular like GG, I would defer to him, I thought roulette was a game with two pistols.


----------



## wayneL

sptrawler said:


> I always thought blackjack, gave the punter the best odds?
> But not being a casino regular like GG, I would defer to him, I thought roulette was a game with two pistols.



It's the best odds if you know all the probabilities of each hand. Still negative expectancy though (of course).

The only caper with a positive expectancy is horseracing, if you know people in low places


----------



## qldfrog

wayneL said:


> The only caper with a positive expectancy is horseracing, if you know people in low places



Or if you know Wayne


----------



## frugal.rock

@sptrawler and I were speculating  what had happened to you
@wayneL

Good to have you back.
Where were you when the **** hit the fan? 💩


----------



## againsthegrain

wayneL said:


> It's the best odds if you know all the probabilities of each hand. Still negative expectancy though (of course).
> 
> The only caper with a positive expectancy is horseracing, if you know people in low places





Probably not so much these days with many multiple card decks in use you don't know how many more high or low cards are there even after counting the ones that came out


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin boon as US inflation hits 13-year high, wages fall to lowest in 21st century
					

U.S. inflation is at its highest since 2008 and wages are plummeting — all good for Bitcoin.




					cointelegraph.com
				



The CPI hides true inflation rates​


----------



## noirua




----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I'm a golder not a bitcoiner, so just stating my bias initially.

Why do most pictures of bitcoin have a golden colour?

Bitcoin has fallen again. An interesting article pro and con bitcoin. 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/oth...-investor-warned-it-will-be-brutal/ar-AAKYD1i 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Rather an impressive head and shoulders about to declare itself on the BTC price. 

Time to get my entrenching tool out to dig some more holes to bury new gold.




gg


----------



## noirua

Bulls hesitate to buy the dip after Bitcoin price falls close to $35K
					

Bitcoin’s drop to $35,130 has bulls hesitant to buy the current dip but on-chain data shows long-term holders continue to accumulate.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## SyBoo

Some interesting news from the lovely crew at the Global Times.

China to shut down over 90% of its Bitcoin mining capacity after local bans - Global Times

A snippet;  

"That means that more than 90 percent of Bitcoin mining capacity, or one-third of the global crypto network's processing power, will be suspended in the short term. As a result, Chinese miners must form alliances to migrate overseas, to places such as North America and Russia," Shentu noted.


----------



## over9k




----------



## BlindSquirrel

Got a nice entry position in to BTC on futures last night. A broadening descending wedge within a broadening descending wedge. The bull flag coming out of the smaller one lines up nicely with the middle of the trading range we've been in for a month.



I used a trailing buy order with a $1000 trail limit to try and get close to the bottom - hoping not to get wicked in on a larger downward move.


----------



## over9k

Yep, there was another beautiful scalp to be had with RIOT because of it too:


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> Yep, there was another beautiful scalp to be had with RIOT because of it too:
> 
> View attachment 126522



It took me a while to realise RIOT was a stock.


----------



## over9k

Yeah, you just have to buy it with fedcoin. No biggie.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I remember back in the early 80's sitting in the 'Gully pub on the banks of the Moonie River and talking to a bloke who had been a rear gunner with the RAF over Europe during WW2. 

He said it was equal parts terror, excitement and fear but the best thing was throwin' a leg over afterwards.

To the victors the spoils. 

This is not going to end well. A long term chart with a terrifying head and shoulders about to declare as we speak.   




gg


----------



## gartley

We had a clue that all was not well at the peak with the wedge or ending diagonal pattern. The rest is history. 
Interestingly similar pattern tracing out in the DAX and NDX.
How much of a decline that results in is anybody's guess but it will be sharp when it gets started.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

gartley said:


> We had a clue that all was not well at the peak with the wedge or ending diagonal pattern. The rest is history.
> Interestingly similar pattern tracing out in the DAX and NDX.
> How much of a decline that results in is anybody's guess but it will be sharp when it gets started.



I would agree. I am uploading a weekly chart over the past year on BTC. It is possible we are looking at USD$20,000.

Soon. 




gg


----------



## over9k

Fine by me: 




Honestly, if you're not buying crypto dips & flipping them you're a fool at this point. Every single one of those arrows represents at least a 10% scalp, some as high as 20%, and usually within 24 hours, _and_ there's been several more since.


----------



## noirua

Hashing out a future: Is Bitcoin hash rate drop an opportunity in disguise?
					

China’s crackdown on Bitcoin mining sparks a restructuring of the distribution of the ecosystem, impacting the hash rate in the short run.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

The Bitcoin price is now fairly steady moving between $32,000 and $35,000 and has done so for a week or more. Shares I hold NASDAQ: RIOT is behaving differently. Having touched $22 when Bitcoin reached $29,000 but now at $34 with Bitcoin at around $33,000.  So for shares on the NASDAQ, the crypto situation is improving for them but not for the likes of LSE: ARB on the London market AIM. However, ARB now intends to apply for the NASDAQ.


----------



## over9k

RIOT doesn't just mine bitcoin though.


----------



## gartley

Nearly time for the bulls to go to the slaughter again....


----------



## Joules MM1

gartley said:


> Nearly time for the bulls to go to the slaughter again....
> View attachment 127195



are you using a different system other than transcribed by Bolton/Charles/Prechter ?
keen to understand these interpretations, respectfully


----------



## gartley

Joules MM1 said:


> are you using a different system other than transcribed by Bolton/Charles/Prechter ?
> keen to understand these interpretations, respectfully



Not I am not. My best guess atm current pattern just completed a wave 4  running triangle.


----------



## noirua

El Salvadore accepts Bitcoin








						Bitcoin Listed as El Salvador's Currency on Wikipedia
					

Wikipedia has listed Bitcoin as one of El Salvador's official currencies, soon after the country announced legalizing Bitcoin as a medium of exchange.




					cryptopotato.com
				











						El Salvador - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## noirua

Deep in rural China, bitcoin miners are packing up
A government clampdown has forced most of them offline
10 July 2021
Https://www.economist.com/china/2021/07/10/deep-in-rural-china-bitcoin-miners-are-packing-up​


----------



## noirua

Argo Blockchain shares spike on social media rumours
					

A look at some of the main risers and fallers in London on Friday



					www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk


----------



## Joules MM1

Bitcoin Posts Outflow for Second Straight Week, CoinShares Data Shows​Bitcoin outflows hit $10.4 million (roughly Rs. 77 crores) in the week ended July 16, after outflows of $6.9 million (roughly Rs. 50 crores) the previous week.​By Reuters | Updated: 20 July 2021 10:50 IST
gadgets.ndtv.com/cryptocurrency/news/bitcoin-price-cryptocurrency-outflow-second-week-coinshares-data-usd-10-4-million-2490427




			https://cryptoquant.com/overview/btc-exchange-flows


----------



## over9k




----------



## Joules MM1

Malaysian Police Crush 1,069 Bitcoin Mining Rigs Using a Steamroller
					

The former owners stole over $2 million of electricity.




					au.pcmag.com
				




Malaysian Police Crush 1,069 Bitcoin Mining Rigs Using a Steamroller​The former owners stole over $2 million of electricity.​


----------



## over9k

Yeah, a lot of that kind of stuff is happening all over the less-than-wealthy world because of the huge load increase it's placing on the power grid and not really employing anyone. 

The sort of "employment per kw/h" of bitcoin is abysmal and employment is much more of a concern over there as people tend to get into big groups & go on long walks together when they can't put food on the table. 

Iceland, meanwhile, with a combination of freezing cold climate & dirt cheap geothermal energy, loves it:


----------



## noirua

Tesla's Elon Musk and Twitter's Jack Dorsey Agree to Have 'the Talk' at Bitcoin Event 'B Word' – Featured Bitcoin News
					

Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey have agreed to have "the talk" at the bitcoin event called "The B Word," which aims to show institutional investors how they can embrace bitcoin.




					news.bitcoin.com


----------



## over9k

over9k said:


> Really gotta wonder if it's market manipulation though. *Have they sold all of theirs off, torpedoing it with the tweet, and we'll soon see a "Due to developments in bitcoin mining technology making it far greener than it previously was blah blah blah we're now going to start accepting it again" policy & accompanying tweet?
> 
> Classic pump, dump, repump?*
> 
> 
> There's no way he's not aware of how much he can/does manipulate markets simply through his actions.



Well, would you look at this: 




I am shocked I tell you, truly shocked.


----------



## over9k

over9k said:


> Really gotta wonder if it's market manipulation though. *Have they sold all of theirs off, torpedoing it with the tweet, and we'll soon see a "Due to developments in bitcoin mining technology making it far greener than it previously was blah blah blah we're now going to start accepting it again" policy & accompanying tweet?*
> 
> Classic pump, dump, repump?
> 
> 
> There's no way he's not aware of how much he can/does manipulate markets simply through his actions.




CALLED IT:









__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## noirua




----------



## qldfrog

Joules MM1 said:


> Malaysian Police Crush 1,069 Bitcoin Mining Rigs Using a Steamroller
> 
> 
> The former owners stole over $2 million of electricity.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> au.pcmag.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Malaysian Police Crush 1,069 Bitcoin Mining Rigs Using a Steamroller​The former owners stole over $2 million of electricity.​



What a waste ..chip shortage they say....


----------



## noirua




----------



## mullokintyre

Bitcoin has finally gone mainstream
Crazy horse strip club
One of Las Vegas's best strip clubs, has announced it will take  bitcoins as payment. 
So does that mean you stuff your  USB sticks in the dancers G-strings instead of dollars??
Mick


----------



## qldfrog

Crypto 8n AUD were doing strong yesterday,i sold my play positions yesterday for a small profit btc was at 46k aud


----------



## Joules MM1

Amazon to Accept Bitcoin by End of 2021 and Develop Own Currency by 2022: Report http://dlvr.it/S4RDy5


----------



## divs4ever

Joules MM1 said:


> Amazon to Accept Bitcoin by End of 2021 and Develop Own Currency by 2022: Report http://dlvr.it/S4RDy5



  that's no good to me i am boycotting Amazon


----------



## noirua

BitcoinIRA Transactions Jump 24,900% in 4 Years As Investors Flock to Crypto Retirement Savings - The Daily Hodl
					

Financial services technology platform BitcoinIRA is seeing massive growth in transactions as investors flock to crypto for their retirement savings, according to a CNBC report.




					dailyhodl.com
				



Bitcoin chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16


----------



## frugal.rock

over9k said:


> CALLED IT:



Wow, your physic abilities are totally astounding !👽

The coins are getting up there again, I might just break even here soon !


----------



## over9k

Yep, took my profits too: 




Hopefully there'll be some more manipulation to dive in & out of.

(Something tells me he's not done yet)


----------



## noirua

$10 Billion New York Asset Manager Files New Registration for Bitcoin Fund - The Daily Hodl
					

Asset manager Stone Ridge is creating a new Bitcoin-focused fund as part of its investment strategy. In a prospectus filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on July 23rd, the New York-based firm with $10 billion in assets under management (AUM) is registering for the Stone...




					dailyhodl.com
				




Bitcoin chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16


----------



## Joules MM1

$btc regained 40k for approx 26 minutes


----------



## DaveTrade




----------



## noirua

Bitcoin's Rally to $40,000 Triggers Over $1,000,000,000 in Liquidations - The Daily Hodl
					

Tens of thousands of crypto traders had their positions liquidated as Bitcoin abruptly rallied to above $40,000.




					dailyhodl.com
				



Data from the cryptocurrency futures trading and information platform Bybt reveals that on July 26th, $964.23 million worth of short positions across all crypto assets were liquidated as Bitcoin ignited a strong rally from around $35,000 to above $39,000 within four hours.

Live Bitcoin chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16

CryptoCurrencies by Market Cap: https://uk.advfn.com/cryptocurrency?fpselector=1


----------



## noirua

Popular Analyst Predicts Parabolic Second Phase of Bitcoin Bull Run, Says Bottom In for Ethereum - The Daily Hodl
					

A prominent crypto strategist and trader predicts that Bitcoin is about to enter a parabolic second phase of the bull market and that something similar could be in store for Ethereum.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## over9k

over9k said:


> Yep, took my profits too:
> 
> View attachment 127974
> 
> 
> Hopefully there'll be some more manipulation to dive in & out of.
> 
> (Something tells me he's not done yet)



And then, the literal next day: 




I love this stuff.


----------



## moXJO

Eth 2 is out soonish. Something that might push the market


----------



## noirua

Crypto Whales Suddenly Move $2,740,000,000 in Bitcoin Within Minutes – Here’s Where the Crypto Is Going - The Daily Hodl
					

Whale Alert first noted at 11:40 p.m. PDT on July 27th that an unknown wallet transferred roughly 9,977 BTC, valued at over $399 million, to another unknown wallet.




					dailyhodl.com
				



Whale Alert first noted at 11:40 p.m. PDT on July 27th that an unknown wallet transferred roughly 9,977 BTC, valued at over $399 million, to another unknown wallet.


----------



## noirua

PayPal Plotting Bitcoin and Crypto Expansion in August – Here’s What the Payments Giant Is Up To - The Daily Hodl
					

Global payment giant PayPal is preparing to expand its cryptocurrency offerings. In April of this year, PayPal introduced crypto services on its mobile payment service Venmo, which enabled over 70 million additional users to buy and sell four cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum...




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## noirua

Popular Analyst Names Altcoin With Most Upside To Capture, Unveils Forecasts for Bitcoin, Solana and Terra - The Daily Hodl
					

A widely followed crypto analyst and influencer is naming one large-cap crypto asset with the most upside to capture, and is also making predictions for Bitcoin, Solana and Terra.




					dailyhodl.com
				



The trader, known as The Crypto Dog, tells his 555,500 Twitter followers that he sees Bitcoin printing a new all-time high within three months.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin ‘supercycle’ sets up Q4 BTC price top as illiquid supply hits all-time high
					

Recent events mean that a Q4 “blow-off top” is now back on the menu as BTC price recovery clings to its 23% weekly gains.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Prominent Analyst Outlines Key Bullish Levels for Bitcoin, Chainlink and One Low-Cap Altcoin - The Daily Hodl
					

Popular crypto analyst Josh Rager is outlining the key bullish levels for Bitcoin, Chainlink and one low-cap altcoin.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## noirua

Top Trader Flips Bullish on Bitcoin, Says He’s Accumulating As Much BTC As He Can – Here’s Why - The Daily Hodl
					

A pseudonymous crypto trader and analyst is changing his Bitcoin (BTC) outlook as the top cryptocurrency hits $42,000.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## noirua




----------



## noirua




----------



## Joules MM1

a mention of  Willy Woo, reminds me of this video (hat tip @SAM) 



tops !!


----------



## noirua

Here Are the Four Upsides to El Salvador’s Bitcoin Adoption, According to Bank of America - The Daily Hodl
					

Bank of America, one of the largest banks in the US, believes El Salvador has a lot to gain from its decision to adopt Bitcoin.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## noirua

Crypto Analyst Predicts Massive Ethereum Breakout, Forecasts New Bitcoin All-Time High by November - The Daily Hodl
					

A prominent crypto analyst says that he expects both Bitcoin and Ethereum to put up stellar performances toward the end of the year.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## moXJO

I don't know what thread to drop this in, so here is as good a place as any.

Right this company will be partnering with visa
https://cryptospend.com.au/
It basically uses crypto to buy goods. 

So the question is:
Will this stop capital gains as you are buying goods and services with crypto like a reg currency ?
Is it then just taxed as income?


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin could be on the verge of a big breakout at $42K, hodler activity suggests
					

The upside predictions also carried the supply squeeze undertones—a situation wherein the number of available Bitcoin supply falls below its spot market demand, leading to higher bids.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

In the last week, Elon Musk said that  TESLA's Bitcoin wallet values its holding at US$1.5 billion and as the Bitcoin price was well down from highs it tends to say TESLA is still buying.  This does not include his own holding of Bitcoin and Dodge coin or smaller companies he has interests in.  TESLA coins held given at 42,069 at $45.000 each = $1.893 billion. 








						How Many Bitcoins Does Tesla Hold? Elon Musk Offers a Hint
					

Tesla announced in February that it invested $1.5 billion (roughly Rs. 11,000 crores) in Bitcoins.




					gadgets.ndtv.com
				




Unsubstantiated rumours have been around for a while now that Elon Musk will make a move and buy one or two Bitcoin miners . Favourites are the Canadian AIM market quoted Argo Blockchain known for its green credentials.








						Argo Blockchain shares spike on social media rumours
					

A look at some of the main risers and fallers in London on Friday



					www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk


----------



## noirua

Popular Crypto Strategist Predicts Huge Breakouts for Bitcoin and Ethereum, Says One Altcoin Set for Fireworks - The Daily Hodl
					

A widely followed crypto strategist and trader is predicting big bullish moves for Bitcoin and Ethereum as the broader crypto markets continue to flash signs of strength.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## noirua

Chinese province to cut off Bitcoin miners from hydropower stations
					

The notice requires hydropower stations to report to China’s NDRC after decommissioning the mining operators from the grid.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## grah33

wouldn't mind some tips on tax reporting with bitcoin ...

is it like investing with shares ? declare a number for the gains or losses ?
i'm guessing etfs are the same as shares, more or less


----------



## Warr87

It's an asset. you report your gains/losses. what its value was at the beginning of last financial, price at the end of financial, and any trades that occured inbetween.


----------



## qldfrog

Warr87 said:


> It's an asset. you report your gains/losses. what its value was at the beginning of last financial, price at the end of financial, and any trades that occured inbetween.



My own  understanding is nothing to declare until you sell, if you sell look at the capital gain or loss taking into account 12 month discount.
In the same way as shares as an investor...
When filling the mytax on the ato website, there is even a popup reminding you not to forget crypto CG so i assume this is the expected way..
If you day trade crypto in out etc it could be seen differently...but not an expert


----------



## grah33

qldfrog said:


> My own  understanding is nothing to declare until you sell, if you sell look at the capital gain or loss taking into account 12 month discount.
> In the same way as shares as an investor...
> When filling the mytax on the ato website, there is even a popup reminding you not to forget crypto CG so i assume this is the expected way..
> If you day trade crypto in out etc it could be seen differently...but not an expert



ok, like shares then, but what do u mean by 12 month discount?


----------



## qldfrog

grah33 said:


> ok, like shares then, but what do u mean by 12 month discount?



If you jeep share or bitcoin,any asset for more than 12 months you qualify for a 50% discount on capital gain.
This is a relatively well known ATO rule, please consider getting professional advice before filing your tax return 👍


----------



## qldfrog

grah33 said:


> ok, like shares then, but what do u mean by 12 month discount?



Cgt discounts for assets held for more than 12 m👍


----------



## Warr87

qldfrog said:


> My own  understanding is nothing to declare until you sell, if you sell look at the capital gain or loss taking into account 12 month discount.
> In the same way as shares as an investor...
> When filling the mytax on the ato website, there is even a popup reminding you not to forget crypto CG so i assume this is the expected way..
> If you day trade crypto in out etc it could be seen differently...but not an expert



my accountant asks for my trades, and its value EOFY. so i just follow what she asks for, lol.


----------



## over9k

grah33 said:


> ok, like shares then, but what do u mean by 12 month discount?



Hold on to it for at least 12 months and you get a 50% capital gains tax discount: https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/Capital-gains-tax/CGT-discount/


----------



## qldfrog

Only issue if any mistake he makes, you pay...something which absolutely bamboozled me when i landed in Australia...


----------



## grah33

qldfrog said:


> Only issue if any mistake he makes, you pay...something which absolutely bamboozled me when i landed in Australia...



u mean a small fee to fix incorrectly filled out tax returns?


i'm thinking GOLD etf and  other etfs are like shares, and same with bitcoin  ethereum etc. work out the final loss or gain for the year.  but i wasn't aware of the discount so thanks for that.


----------



## grah33

also what if some units were sold off and were missed in reporting  in the financial year before?


----------



## over9k

You can backdate/fix errors up to two years iirc.


----------



## grah33

over9k said:


> You can backdate/fix errors up to two years iirc.






over9k said:


> You can backdate/fix errors up to two years iirc.



so  you'd do the latest tax return excluding the units that were sold off in prior FY,  u think? basically, as though you had done it properly before, and doing it properly now.


----------



## frugal.rock

grah33 said:


> so  you'd do the latest tax return excluding the units that were sold off in prior FY,  u think? basically, as though you had done it properly before, and doing it properly now.



I would think legally you would need/ should fix the error. Doing what you've suggested of adding on to the next year then creates another error.
1st error may be a honest mistake and get treated as such, however a second error could be ignorance which isn't a defence.
All in my opinion.
It is quite easy to correct a previous year as @over9k stated if you did it through etax.
Not sure if you can correct it yourself using etax if an accountant did it though?

If first error is corrected, obviously it has immediate taxation ramifications, together with knock on implications for anything relying on total income levels, such as government benefits, eg family tax benefit, Centrelink benefits etc


----------



## over9k

grah33 said:


> so  you'd do the latest tax return excluding the units that were sold off in prior FY,  u think? basically, as though you had done it properly before, and doing it properly now.



Yes 

You need an accountant.


----------



## qldfrog

frugal.rock said:


> I would think legally you would need/ should fix the error. Doing what you've suggested of adding on to the next year then creates another error.
> 1st error may be a honest mistake and get treated as such, however a second error could be ignorance which isn't a defence.
> All in my opinion.
> It is quite easy to correct a previous year as @over9k stated if you did it through etax.
> Not sure if you can correct it yourself using etax if an accountant did it though?
> 
> If first error is corrected, obviously it has immediate taxation ramifications, together with knock on implications for anything relying on total income levels, such as government benefits, eg family tax benefit, Centrelink benefits etc



I have issues normally woth trust distribution.where they send you you annual statement in September october whereas you are supposed to do your tax return before.
But as i add these amount as dividends by "error", it is mostly as a disadvantage to myself and do not bother updating the return.
When i discover real errors, i do update the tax return and it is not too hard on the etax/mytax.hooe it helps and not a tax advice


----------



## grah33

over9k said:


> Yes
> 
> You need an accountant.





 there are websites  where you do it yourself and they check it for you. much cheaper and better for me i think.


----------



## grah33

frugal.rock said:


> I would think legally you would need/ should fix the error. Doing what you've suggested of adding on to the next year then creates another error.
> 1st error may be a honest mistake and get treated as such, however a second error could be ignorance which isn't a defence.
> All in my opinion.
> It is quite easy to correct a previous year as @over9k stated if you did it through etax.
> Not sure if you can correct it yourself using etax if an accountant did it though?
> 
> If first error is corrected, obviously it has immediate taxation ramifications, together with knock on implications for anything relying on total income levels, such as government benefits, eg family tax benefit, Centrelink benefits etc



one approach would be to ignore the units sold before and not reported (ie do this year properly).  then fix the year before.


----------



## DaveTrade

*The "Real Reason" Crypto Is Crashing?*



	

		
			
		

		
	
Crypto and stocks tumbled this morning as a number of bearish forces converged on market sentiment. The first of which being yet another economic downgrade from Goldman Sachs following a previous GDP forecast reduction, issued two weeks ago.

The Wall Street bank trimmed its US GDP outlook, citing “fading fiscal stimulus” and the Delta variant as contributors to a slowed post-Covid recovery.

Goldman economist Ronnie Walker said that there would be a “harder path” forward in a Monday note to clients before revealing a 5.7% GDP growth forecast for 2021, down from Goldman’s already-reduced 6% estimate.

Last week’s disappointing August jobs report caused the bank to shift its labor projection, too. Goldman now expects an unemployment rate of 4.2% (vs. its prior 4.1% prediction) by year’s end.

“The hurdle for strong consumption growth going forward appears much higher: the Delta variant is already weighing on Q3 growth, and fading fiscal stimulus and a slower service sector recovery will both be headwinds in the medium term,” wrote Goldman analysts.

Morgan Stanley also issued a downgrade of its own this morning, classifying U.S. equities as “underweight.”

“We see a bumpy September-October as the final stages of a mid-cycle transition play out,” explained Morgan Stanley strategists.

“We continue to think this is a ‘normal’ cycle, just hotter and faster, and our cycle model remains in ‘expansion’. But the next two months carry an outsized risk to growth, policy and the legislative agenda.”

To add insult to injury, cryptocurrencies crashed shortly after stocks opened for trading. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and virtually all other digital currencies fell double digits shortly before noon. Crypto has more or less tracked the S&P 500 ever since the Covid pandemic began. Today’s selling may have been sparked by a poor morning trading session for stocks.

But the majority of the crypto losses that followed were likely caused by something else, as equities didn’t drop nearly as much as crypto.

The market’s “smart money” – investors armed with inside information – could be dumping their crypto portfolios in anticipation of another financial crisis. This time around, though, it’s not an American company (like Lehman Brothers) causing problems.

Evergrande, China’s second-largest property developer, is to blame.

In addition to being a major real estate developer, Evergrande is also China’s largest issuer of commercial paper (very short-term corporate bonds). It earned this title after the Chinese government banned the company from issuing longer-term debt.

Normally, this wouldn't be an issue. But Evergrande is now well on the path to bankruptcy. Creditors have pooled their resources, taking the company to court in an attempt to settle their debts – something that often precedes a bankruptcy declaration. Evergrande has liquidated assets, even selling its corporate headquarters, to pay said creditors.

Sadly, Evergrande’s efforts will be in vain. The company is essentially doomed to default with billions in debt coming due within the next year. Evergrande’s CEO recently held a press conference in which he projected supreme confidence and insisted that the company was doing just fine.

Lehman’s CEO, Richard S. Fuld Jr., made similar statements prior to Lehman’s epic $600 billion collapse.

The difference now is that everyone can see the Evergrande bankruptcy developing. A bailout from the Chinese government will be required to save the company, which owes roughly $305 billion in debt. As of August 31st, Evergrande only had roughly $355 billion in total assets. That’s enough to pay creditors if it’s able to liquidate everything.

Keep in mind, however, that Evergrande just sold its headquarters for a 66% loss. The reality is that the company won’t be able to liquidate enough assets in time nor for what they're currently valued at.

Bankruptcy looms as a result.

I know what you're asking:

"But what does this mean for crypto?"

Tether, a Hong-Kong based cryptocurrency that tracks the value of the US dollar (called a “stablecoin”), is backed by a significant amount of Chinese commercial paper. In fact, Tether claimed earlier in the year that 50% of its reserves come from commercial paper. How much of it is Chinese or specifically from Evergrande is unclear.

But the team at Tether has been very tight-lipped about the origin of the commercial paper. If it’s not from Evergrande, it’s safe to assume that the Tether execs would’ve said so.

Instead, Tether has kept quiet during Evergrande’s descent into insolvency. CNBC’s Jim Cramer went so far as to call Tether a “ticking timebomb” after anonymous “Chinese sources” told him most of the commercial paper was in fact Chinese.

This matters because Tether accounts for almost 80% of the volume of all crypto transactions. If the commercial paper that backs Tether fails, the actual value of Tether (USDT) could plunge below its 1-to-1, 1 Tether-to-1 US dollar ratio. In addition, the Tether team could also dump its sizable crypto holdings (including Bitcoin) to cover its commercial paper losses, hastening a massive crash as liquidity simultaneously shrinks.

This outcome assumes that China allows Evergrande to bankrupt.

If the Chinese government bails out Evergrande instead, Beijing would become the company’s newest business partner. Recent private sector crackdowns by the CCP suggest that the government would more than happy with this outcome.

Should this happen, China would need to settle those debts with US dollars, not Chinese yuan. This is important as Beijing would then be forced to buy over $300 billion dollars, spiking the value of the dollar in the process.

That could then lead to an overnight “haircut” for all asset classes as the dollar surges, including both crypto and equities. In addition, a bailout may reveal a deeper “shadow banking” industry that involves other major Chinese corporations. There very well could be more companies like Evergrande out there (albeit smaller ones) that have yet to hit critical mass with their toxic debt issuances.

So, either by way of bankruptcy or bailout, 2021’s speculative mania has officially entered hazardous territory. Let’s not forget that a Fed taper is coming down the pipe in the near future as well.

“Smart money” investors could be trying to exit early, prompting this morning's correction. Or, it could simply be a case of waning bullish enthusiasm.

Regardless, Evergrande still poses a significant threat to nearly all investors if it's the latter. And not just those involved with crypto.

Bottom line:

A major reckoning is developing in the Far East and the mainstream financial media hasn’t given Evergrande the emphasis that it deserves. This will all change, of course, when China steps in to save the company and asset values hit a sudden “air pocket.”

But until then, the market will remain focused on the numerous Covid variants threatening to reactivate lockdowns.

Even though a lack of government stimulus has had a far more profound effect on bogging down the US economy, which Goldman (and others) finally admitted this morning despite a far bigger story - the Evergrande bankruptcy - simmering beneath the market's surface.


----------



## againsthegrain

More scare tactics and tightening loop from govt and bankers








						Bitcoin traders issue stark warning
					

A bitcoin trader says she is running out of options after being booted from 90 banks across Australia.




					www.news.com.au


----------



## DaveTrade

againsthegrain said:


> More scare tactics and tightening loop from govt and bankers
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bitcoin traders issue stark warning
> 
> 
> A bitcoin trader says she is running out of options after being booted from 90 banks across Australia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.news.com.au




There is generic way to invest in crypto in the equity market using BLOK; see chart


----------



## over9k

I don't trade coins but I do mine them. I set it all up as a proper business completely above board etc and everything's been fine. My revenue is what I sell each coin for, my costs are my power bill, my capex is pretty obvious, all is well.


----------



## againsthegrain

over9k said:


> I don't trade coins but I do mine them. I set it all up as a proper business completely above board etc and everything's been fine. My revenue is what I sell each coin for, my costs are my power bill, my capex is pretty obvious, all is well.




How much roughly return do you make after electricity costs and rough figure on hw investment?  I was thinking about it too long this winter and summer is around the corner so worst time to start mining


----------



## over9k

againsthegrain said:


> How much roughly return do you make after electricity costs and rough figure on hw investment?  I was thinking about it too long this winter and summer is around the corner so worst time to start mining



About 100k. The ROI is about 150% at current prices. Currently looking at getting a big solar array installed which has a roughly 20% ROI. Very seriously looking at going all out with 3 phase power, 30kw solar system etc etc. My parents live on acreage so it's as simple as just dropping a couple of shipping containers on the ground, cutting the ends off/removing the doors and installing mesh (for airflow), running the wires, and that's it. Zero rent.

It's all set up at one of my family's properties down in tassie where it's nice & cold though - no way I'd do it up in QLD or wherever.

I can take a couple of pictures of some of my rigs if you like?


----------



## againsthegrain

over9k said:


> About 100k. The ROI is about 150% at current prices. Currently looking at getting a big solar array installed which has a roughly 20% ROI. Very seriously looking at going all out with 3 phase power, 30kw solar system etc etc. My parents live on acreage so it's as simple as just dropping a couple of shipping containers on the ground, cutting the ends off/removing the doors and installing mesh (for airflow), running the wires, and that's it. Zero rent.
> 
> It's all set up at one of my family's properties down in tassie where it's nice & cold though - no way I'd do it up in QLD or wherever.
> 
> I can take a couple of pictures of some of my rigs if you like?




Whoah sounds like a serious setup, I was thinking maybe to try around 10k in a garage in Melbourne but will prob light up on 40 degree days.  Sure out of curiosity show us


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> About 100k. The ROI is about 150% at current prices. Currently looking at getting a big solar array installed which has a roughly 20% ROI. Very seriously looking at going all out with 3 phase power, 30kw solar system etc etc. My parents live on acreage so it's as simple as just dropping a couple of shipping containers on the ground, cutting the ends off/removing the doors and installing mesh (for airflow), running the wires, and that's it. Zero rent.
> 
> It's all set up at one of my family's properties down in tassie where it's nice & cold though - no way I'd do it up in QLD or wherever.
> 
> I can take a couple of pictures of some of my rigs if you like?



You mining any of the solana ecosystem coins?
Really interested in the setup actually. 
I was gearing to do something similar but got lost on nfts.


----------



## over9k

Nah just whatever's most profitable at current prices. 

I'm putting another rig together today, I'll take some pictures for you guys when I'm done.


----------



## over9k

Ok so here's one I got together today:




It should be a 12 gpu rig but I still have plenty of stuff in the mail and post is painfully slow at the moment for obvious reasons.

So, currently it's 8x RX6800's doing about 60mh at 120w each.


Once it's fully set up, it'll be 12 gpu's at approx $70/day in revenue with $5/day in power costs. I got 11 GPU's 2nd hand for $1200 each, had to buy one new to make the 12, and then had to buy the motherboard and ancillaries. 

All up, about $16k invested. 


365*65=23725 

23725/16k=1.482 or approx 148% (let's call it 150) ROI.


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> Ok so here's one I got together today:
> 
> View attachment 130174
> 
> 
> It should be a 12 gpu rig but I still have plenty of stuff in the mail and post is painfully slow at the moment for obvious reasons.
> 
> So, currently it's 8x RX6800's doing about 60mh at 120w each.
> 
> 
> Once it's fully set up, it'll be 12 gpu's at approx $70/day in revenue with $5/day in power costs. I got 11 GPU's 2nd hand for $1200 each, had to buy one new to make the 12, and then had to buy the motherboard and ancillaries.
> 
> All up, about $16k invested.
> 
> 
> 365*65=23725
> 
> 23725/16k=1.482 or approx 148% (let's call it 150) ROI.



How many solar panels am I allowed to stick around my yard again?


----------



## qldfrog

moXJO said:


> How many solar panels am I allowed to stick around my yard again?



As many as you want if you do not connect to the grid


----------



## over9k

moXJO said:


> How many solar panels am I allowed to stick around my yard again?



10kw downstream on single phase power (you install about 13kw of panels but only 10kw of inverters so you still get the full 10kw when the sun is lower in the morning/evening and also when it's overcast) and 30kw if you have 3 phase power.


----------



## moXJO

qldfrog said:


> As many as you want if you do not connect to the grid



But then I'd need battery. Be interesting once they bring cheap storage.



over9k said:


> 10kw downstream on single phase power (you install about 13kw of panels but only 10kw of inverters so you still get the full 10kw when the sun is lower in the morning/evening and also when it's overcast) and 30kw if you have 3 phase power.



What's the risk to the setup? 
Coins crashing, regulation, house burning down?


----------



## frugal.rock

moXJO said:


> What's the risk to the setup?
> Coins crashing, regulation, house burning down?



The tech used is  well outdated every few years also with faster rigs always being made.

Add quantum computing to that list as well, however it's probably still a good couple of years off at a guess, but if/ when quantum does break it into crypto, it will flood the market, with the obvious effect of dilution... (I can see a case for Bitcoin value to go up, as there is a finite amount available. How much will that final bitcoin be worth if it can ever actually be mined? )🙀

Good to see current prices etc @over9k and thanks for sharing details. 👍
Am I right in my thinking, that one has to actually get lucky so to speak, as to actually mine a bit coin?
I'm guessing your not in a pool from what you've said.

I am of the understanding it's not a case of just continuously mining (hashrate and time based) then after a certain amount of time, presto, you mine a coin.
Is my thinking correct it's more of a case that  the system needs to be the one that crunches that final successful block algo/ code...whatever it's called?
Right place at the right time scenario? Or have I got it all wrong...?

How/ when does your system switch between highest value coins?

I remember when I looked into it all a bit around 3 ? years ago, ROI wasn't even quite at 100% on a year.
I didn't speculate for bitcoin to go so high either... no risk no reward, but the risk wasnt something I wanted to take on.


----------



## qldfrog

moXJO said:


> But then I'd need battery. Be interesting once they bring cheap storage.
> 
> 
> What's the risk to the setup?
> Coins crashing, regulation, house burning down?



One option would be to go without storage or minimum one and mine 12h a day.
Slash returns by 2 but free power..i would go that way. I live in qld so basically nearly 12h daylight all year round.
A point: most mining occurs in the northern hemisphere, in northern winter,power should be more expensive there overall.
So you could have a competitive cost advantage in december here mining like mad in Melbourne or Hobart,
Think about it:
A crypto  is a virtual representation of energy.so potentially this is where your extra profit can be.
Obviously,forget plugging to the grid for that as we have one of the most expensive power on earth


----------



## over9k

moXJO said:


> But then I'd need battery. Be interesting once they bring cheap storage.
> 
> 
> What's the risk to the setup?
> Coins crashing, regulation, house burning down?



Yes and no to all three:

At current prices, your revenue is about 13x your costs. That's massive. But your capex is obviously where it has potential to bite you.

But at current prices, there's a 150% ROI. Even if the price of coins was to halve and drop you down to 70% ROI, that's still absolutely phenomenal.

Regulation: Yes, there's a lot of talk about it. The first time anyone mentions it, there's uproar. There's a lot of debate about how politically possible regulation will actually be. They rolled out the enviromental excuse (using power that causes global warming blah blah) but that's easily gamed with the use of solar panels or installing everything in iceland where they use geothermal power or... Well, you get the point.

The reason why china nuked it is because their electricity grid was buckling under the strain as it is and steel mills employ far more people than bitcoin mines do. China can't even build its grid out fast enough without the coins being mined let alone with them, so from their government's perspective, they had no choice.

I have no doubt that if their electricity grid had twice the capacity it does then they'd be all for it.


House burning down - yes, if you set it all up like an idiot. But you should also have insurance. You can also set it up out in a shed or something like I plan on doing. Keeping it all cold is key from both a safety perspective as well as an efficiency one - the colder they are, the better they work.

Anyone that burns a house down doing this deserves everything they get. There's no shortage of idiots out there that have tried to draw far far more power through their cables (both to the rig and within it) than they are rated for and had fires because of it. I have no sympathy for these people at all, the fires are a product of nothing other than their own stupidity/not knowing what they are messing with/overconfidence.

Cables have power ratings for a reason.


Alternatively, they set it all up somewhere that just doesn't have the necessary airflow/cooling, overheat/cook everything, and cause a fire that way. Again, nothing but their own stupidity, so again, no sympathy from me at all.



frugal.rock said:


> The tech used is  well outdated every few years also with faster rigs always being made.
> 
> Add quantum computing to that list as well, however it's probably still a good couple of years off at a guess, but if/ when quantum does break it into crypto, it will flood the market, with the obvious effect of dilution... (I can see a case for Bitcoin value to go up, as there is a finite amount available. How much will that final bitcoin be worth if it can ever actually be mined? )🙀
> 
> Good to see current prices etc @over9k and thanks for sharing details. 👍
> Am I right in my thinking, that one has to actually get lucky so to speak, as to actually mine a bit coin?
> I'm guessing your not in a pool from what you've said.
> 
> I am of the understanding it's not a case of just continuously mining (hashrate and time based) then after a certain amount of time, presto, you mine a coin.
> Is my thinking correct it's more of a case that  the system needs to be the one that crunches that final successful block algo/ code...whatever it's called?
> Right place at the right time scenario? Or have I got it all wrong...?
> 
> How/ when does your system switch between highest value coins?
> 
> I remember when I looked into it all a bit around 3 ? years ago, ROI wasn't even quite at 100% on a year.
> I didn't speculate for bitcoin to go so high either... no risk no reward, but the risk wasnt something I wanted to take on.



Correct, computers are an arms race like that. But your old hardware does not stop being profitable, it's just not as profitable as the new stuff. Classic osborne effect - if you were always waiting for the next gen of better hardware, you'd never buy anything.

Reference actually mining a whole coin - yes, to mine a whole coin yourself you're looking at dozens of gpu's running for an entire year, but the way I do it is with a program called "nicehash" which actually rents my (and lots of other people's) processing power out to someone else who gets the coin but this person pays me in increments every four hours.

So this solves the cashflow problem for me at the expense of that person obviously taking a cut for making the payouts every 4 hours until a whole coin is mined.

But with that being said, their cut is only 0.6% of the actual value, so it's well worth it.


To mine a coin in under four hours miners work in "pools" of thousands of people in order to get the number crunching power necessary to get it done in that amount of time. This, again, involves a small cut being taken, but again, when it's only <1%, it's well worth it.

You CAN just mine a coin as yourself/your own pool but it, as I mentioned earlier, will take you months and months and months (or years, depending on how many rigs you have) to get paid out unless you have thousands (and the minimum really is in the thousands) of your own gpu's set up in a massive warehouse or something. Unless you have THAT many under your own control, running your own pool/solo operation is a fool's errand. Remember, you don't get *anything* until the whole job is done so if you think of it like a business, you have a massive cashflow problem as you're spending money hand over fist for months (or even years) until you finally get the whole payout at the end of the job unless you have thousands and thousands of gpu's running that can punch you out a coin every few days or so.

Think of it like building a skyscraper on your own - I mean you can, but it'll take you forever. Much better to work as a team with hundreds of other guys and get it done quickly as the time you save is well worth the extra money it'll cost you. Make sense?


----------



## over9k

I've posted this before but I'll repost it for those that haven't seen it: 

This is an example of one of those guys that has thousands and thousands of his own gpu's in a massive warehouse under his control/running in his own pool that I was talking about:


----------



## e_abrams

Does anyone know why the recent crash happened? Was it because of El Salvador?


----------



## over9k

You mean the last day or so? The whole market crashed. Bitcoin's just like a high beta position on the market as a whole.


----------



## e_abrams

In general, yes. I was wondering what happened.


----------



## over9k

e_abrams said:


> In general, yes. I was wondering what happened.



Search "evergrande" and go from there


----------



## e_abrams

over9k said:


> Search "evergrande" and go from there



Oh! Oh, it's that! I did not connect those dots at all.


----------



## moXJO

Chinese are dumping everything.


----------



## e_abrams

After what happened, is anyone surprised? The industry will recuperate, in time. I hope.


----------



## over9k

It was an 8% drop at the bottom and has since rebounded.


----------



## e_abrams

That is what I like about Bitcoin, it always rebounds, nothing seems to be able to hold it back for too long.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin set to become legal payment in Brazil
October 4 2021
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-set-become-legal-payment-154644863.html​


----------



## noirua

George Soros Fund Manager Says Bitcoin Has Gone 'Mainstream', Fund Owns 'Some Coins’ - Decrypt
					

George Soros’ family office has invested in cryptocurrencies, saying that the asset class has officially gone "mainstream."




					decrypt.co


----------



## e_abrams

noirua said:


> Bitcoin set to become legal payment in Brazil
> October 4 2021
> Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-set-become-legal-payment-154644863.html​



Who knew it would be South American countries that would embrace Bitcoin like that first.


----------



## qldfrog

e_abrams said:


> Who knew it would be South American countries that would embrace Bitcoin like that first.



I should create the btc qldfrog index :-(
,last 2 times i sold,btc was up more than 10% within 2 days....
Luckily,my buy timing is good so still profiting ...but less.
Really undecided. I like btc concept, afraid of world fed banks and rotten politician cronies with legislative power.. we all live with our own CCP..
Never bet against the Fed


----------



## noirua

At a geothermal power plant near El Salvador’s Tecapa volcano, 300 computers whir inside a trailer as they make complex mathematical calculations day and night verifying transactions for the cryptocurrency bitcoin.
16 October 2021








						El Salvador explores bitcoin mining powered by volcanos
					

At a geothermal power plant near El Salvador’s Tecapa volcano, 300 computers whir inside a trailer as they make complex mathematical calculations day and night verifying transactions for the cryptocurrency bitcoin




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## sptrawler

Could be an interesting article, for the bitcoin club.








						Ted Cruz: Could Bitcoin mining help Texas solve its notorious power grid problems?
					

WASHINGTON — Texas is still scrambling for long-term solutions to the problems that have plagued the state’s power grid for years, but Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is...



					www.dallasnews.com


----------



## DaveTrade

*Will Bitcoin Keep Going Up?*




	

		
			
		

		
	
The Bitcoin futures ETF is here and crypto bulls couldn’t be happier. In anticipation of the ETF, Bitcoin screamed higher over the last few days, almost hitting a new all-time high in the process. Stocks are up, too, over the last week.

But for the month of October, Bitcoin’s stolen the show. It even took most altcoins (cryptocurrencies that aren’t Bitcoin) to the cleaners in recent weeks as the top “alts” have been unable to keep pace with Bitcoin’s impressive climb.

That, in turn, increasingly titled the crypto market toward its most popular coin.


As pictured in the chart above, Bitcoin’s market dominance has risen from 40% in mid-September to 47% within the last few days. And though that might not seem significant on its own, it could be indicative of a stronger Bitcoin rally to come.

Historically, when Bitcoin has risen alongside market dominance, Bitcoin outperformed altcoins. What’s more, Bitcoin won’t engage in an epic run-up unless dominance is climbing as well.

Now that dominance is finally pitching higher again after months of falling, Bitcoin could very well be preparing to make the leap to $70,000 once it surpasses the all-time high of roughly $65,000.

Altcoins, meanwhile, will lag until dominance starts trending lower again. When dominance falls and Bitcoin rises, “altcoin season” ensues, where altcoins outperform Bitcoin. For now, though, Bitcoin’s still in charge.

Not everyone is convinced that Bitcoin’s due for another spike higher, however. Crypto analysts have been concerned about how the Bitcoin futures ETF (which opened for trading yesterday) could allow institutional forces to manipulate Bitcoin’s price as most retail traders may prefer buying and selling Bitcoin directly.

“Demand for these bitcoin futures ETFs is likely to be disappointing. These could be of interest to a limited audience of institutions that can’t hold spot or derivatives directly, as well as retail investors that prefer the familiarity and convenience of ETFs,” said Noelle Acheson of Genesis Global Trading.

“Most investors, however, are more likely to continue to access BTC exposure through spot or derivatives, or through any of the many listed securities or international funds that offer spot BTC exposure.”

Digital asset brokerage Bequant’s head of research, Martha Reyes, noted that institutions have already started to influence Bitcoin through the CME’s existing Bitcoin futures market.

“Speculation about an imminent futures ETF really took off last week as the SEC had been uncharacteristically quiet ahead of the approval deadline for the first of the ETFs on October 18,” Reyes said.

“US institutions, in particular, have been fueling the rally as evidenced by activity on the CME and the basis flippening on the CME over the retail-led exchanges.”

If Bitcoin’s going to continue its long-term rally, it’ll have to burst past the all-time high (roughly $65,000) to do so. Otherwise, a dreaded “double top” will form, which often precede major bearish reversals.

For the time being, though, the Bitcoin bull run is still alive. And it’s not showing any signs of slowing.

That could be enough to help Bitcoin reach greener pastures, stretching out the rally into November and beyond.

Especially if market dominance rises in tandem with Bitcoin’s price in the coming weeks.


----------



## matty77

Just thought id drop in and say hello, its been good since May...

see you all in Feb when we are over $100k AUD.


----------



## moXJO

matty77 said:


> Just thought id drop in and say hello, its been good since May...
> 
> see you all in Feb when we are over $100k AUD.



Your shout for lambos


----------



## over9k

Inflationary pressures have started to ease a bit. Might be time to rotate a little


----------



## greggles

Ouch! 

Bitcoin falls below $59,000.









						Bitcoin price crash sees hundreds of billions wiped from crypto market
					

Ethereum, Binance Coin, Cardano, Solana and Ripple also suffer flash crashes of 5-15 per cent




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## againsthegrain

greggles said:


> Ouch!




every1 flocking to Shiba now


----------



## noirua

Pakistanis have $20B in crypto assets, says head of local association
					

The FPCCI president explained that Pakistanis' digital currency valuations are based on the chamber's research paper, according to a local report during a news conference.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Pakistan to investigate Binance for multi-million dollar crypto scam
					

A relevant questionnaire has been sent to Binance Headquarters Cayman Islands and Binance U.S. to explain their involvement with the crypto scam.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

The Bitcoin high was about $68,000 of late and low point about $40,000 giving an average of $54,000. It does look likely that the price will move back higher purely because it has fallen too far too quickly. From that point of view Bitcoin seems set to retest the $50,000 level in the very short term IMHO.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin payments decline as other cryptocurrencies grow
					

Since November, when crypto values had been depreciating, businesses have begun to use stablecoins more frequently for cross-border payments.




					cointelegraph.com
				



The trend suggests that individuals are holding Bitcoin rather than spending it. Bitcoin's prices increased by 60% in 2021, regardless of the fourth quarter's volatility. According to Bitpay, the majority of last year's crypto transactions were in luxury items like jewelry, watches and automobiles.


----------



## noirua

2021: A year of mass adoption for cryptocurrencies in Brazil
					

For the next year, we can expect even more major Brazilian and Latin American firms to enter the cryptocurrency market.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin price can’t find its footing, but BTC fundamentals inspire confidence in traders
					

Data shows traders still feel confident about BTC price because the futures premium and other fundamentals show no signs of stress.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin’s transition to a risk-off asset will propel it to $100K in 2022, says Bloomberg analyst
					

Bloomberg's Mike McGlone is convinced that Bitcoin’s transition to digital gold will propel it to new all-time highs in 2022.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## againsthegrain

Russia is considering to ban crypto... 3rd largest pool of miners











						Russia’s extreme cryptocurrency move
					

Russia is considering banning cryptocurrency altogether over concerns of the impact on the environment and also the ability of users to escape financial regulations.




					www.news.com.au


----------



## Trader X

noirua said:


> Bitcoin’s transition to a risk-off asset will propel it to $100K in 2022, says Bloomberg analyst
> 
> 
> Bloomberg's Mike McGlone is convinced that Bitcoin’s transition to digital gold will propel it to new all-time highs in 2022.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cointelegraph.com



"Mike McGlone is convinced Bitcoin is on track to reach $100K in 2022, as it completes its transition from a risk-on to risk-off asset. ...He said he considers the current bearish sentiment as a positive sign, indicating market consolidation."

Positive sign?  Market consolidation? Risk-off asset?  I am looking at the wrong chart?  A case of positive spin being totally disconnected from market reality.  What exactly would be the catalyst to reverse this savage downtrend?


----------



## noirua

Trader X said:


> "Mike McGlone is convinced Bitcoin is on track to reach $100K in 2022, as it completes its transition from a risk-on to risk-off asset. ...He said he considers the current bearish sentiment as a positive sign, indicating market consolidation."
> 
> Positive sign?  Market consolidation? Risk-off asset?  I am looking at the wrong chart?  A case of positive spin being totally disconnected from market reality.  What exactly would be the catalyst to reverse this savage downtrend?
> 
> View attachment 136235



Would this reverse the downtrend?

The sense is of Russia being a relative economic pygmy, unable to sustain the costs of a major invasion. Biden threatens to unleash economic sanctions of a kind Putin has never seen.

But sanctions since 2014 have fostered domestic independence, such that Russia is now estimated to have over $620 billion equivalent in total foreign currency reserves. Strength in oil & gas prices is projected to boost its sovereign wealth fund from near $200 billion cash over $300 billion by 2024.

Conservative fiscal policy also means that government debt as a percentage of GDP is only around 20% and foreign corporate debt has halved since 2014. Few international investors own Russian government bonds. 

Russia is therefore in quite a strong position to withstand further sanctions. As Ukraine develops military strength, Moscow may recognise an argument it will cost less financially (and fewer lives) to act now instead of later.  
* https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-comme...pJobID=1917502535&spReportId=MTkxNzUwMjUzNQS2 *


----------



## Trader X

noirua said:


> Would this reverse the downtrend?
> 
> The sense is of Russia being a relative economic pygmy, unable to sustain the costs of a major invasion. Biden threatens to unleash economic sanctions of a kind Putin has never seen.
> 
> But sanctions since 2014 have fostered domestic independence, such that Russia is now estimated to have over $620 billion equivalent in total foreign currency reserves. Strength in oil & gas prices is projected to boost its sovereign wealth fund from near $200 billion cash over $300 billion by 2024.
> 
> Conservative fiscal policy also means that government debt as a percentage of GDP is only around 20% and foreign corporate debt has halved since 2014. Few international investors own Russian government bonds.
> 
> Russia is therefore in quite a strong position to withstand further sanctions. As Ukraine develops military strength, Moscow may recognise an argument it will cost less financially (and fewer lives) to act now instead of later.
> * https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/stockwatch-what-could-ukraine-invasion-mean-investors-ii522638?utm_source=newsletter &utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NEW-DLY-ENGAGE-afternoon_round_up_210122&utm_content=newsletter &spMailingID=17258051&spUserID=ODIzODEzNDUxMzE0S0&spJobID=1917502535&spReportId=MTkxNzUwMjUzNQS2 *



Notably, Russia has been the largest purchaser of gold for the last seven years, purchasing 274 tons in 2018 alone, China is a close second with no country of significance loading up on Bitcoin (which could be a catalyst to halt the decline).  Many central banks are boosting gold reserves in anticipation of what?  

Bitcoin needs a major whale to step in and change the price momentum.  Too much price weakness will force highly leveraged players like MicroStrategy to either take large writedowns or begin to liquidate their positions.  If that occurs the selloff will gain even more momentum.

Given that crypto is a high risk asset, it will continue to weaken if deleveraging continues apace in conjunction with interest rates rising.  A negative sentiment change in equity markets is starting to play out and likely to fuel continued weakness in crypto prices.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Reaches Lifetime High, It's Now More Difficult Than Ever Before to Find a Block Reward
21 January 2022
Https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-reaches-lifetime-high-its-now-more-difficult-than-ever-before-to-find-a-block-reward/

Bitcoin’s Mining Difficulty Taps an ATH at 26.64 Trillion, Hashrate Shudders After Price Dip and Difficulty Increase​
*Following the drop in value during Thursday evening’s trading sessions, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty rose to a lifetime high, reaching 26.64 trillion after jumping 9.32% at block height 719,712. The mining difficulty’s all-time high (ATH) is now higher than the ATH it reached on May 15, 2021, which means it is currently more difficult than ever before to find a bitcoin block reward.*


----------



## noirua

El Salvador buys its cheapest 410 Bitcoin as prices reach $36K
					

The latest 410 BTC purchase is currently the cheapest acquisition for El Salvador ever since the country adopted BTC as a legal tender.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Quite recently Bitcoin was down to $29,000 from $64,000 before rising again to $67,000 and falling today to $35,000 as I post. Looking at the $29,000 figure it does point to an equivalent low point now of about $31,000. Will it rise again to $70,000 as El Salvador starts buying?


----------



## Tyre Kicker

El Salvador really opened the purse strings with that purchase. 


Let’s see them have a real crack at these rock bottom prices - get stuck in for 100 x what was just spent.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin records all-time high network difficulty amid price fluctuations
					

F2Pool has been the highest contributor to the hash rate by mining 88 BTC blocks in the last four days, followed by Poolin at 76 blocks.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

noirua said:


> Bitcoin records all-time high network difficulty amid price fluctuations
> 
> 
> F2Pool has been the highest contributor to the hash rate by mining 88 BTC blocks in the last four days, followed by Poolin at 76 blocks.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cointelegraph.com



This article from Coindesk may assist beginners understand terms, state of play and strategies used in Bitcoin mentioned by @noirua in his excellent posts. 

It did assist me. 









						What Does Hashrate Mean and Why Does It Matter?
					

Miners must compete using their machines to solve a difficult mathematical problem.




					www.coindesk.com
				




gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

BTC has shown some resilience over the last 24 hours but is now showing a descending R angle triangle with the red volumes on the downside. 




gg


----------



## over9k

@Joe Blow can we just have one dedicated bitcoin and/or crypto thread?


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin dips 8% from highs as trader demands BTC bulls reclaim $37.5K
					

BTC price action gets no cues from the Fed, as Bitcoin's local highs fade.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

27 January 2022


----------



## noirua

‘Bull or bear market?’ Bitcoin losses from panic selling mount in 2022
					

Bitcoin is losing panic sellers money again this month, BTC on-chain data shows.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

noirua said:


> ‘Bull or bear market?’ Bitcoin losses from panic selling mount in 2022
> 
> 
> Bitcoin is losing panic sellers money again this month, BTC on-chain data shows.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cointelegraph.com



It is still in a bear market atm.

And the dollar/volume does not indicate a large amount of insto buying although, as you say, some may be buying.




gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

wayneL said:


> It's the best odds if you know all the probabilities of each hand. Still negative expectancy though (of course).
> 
> The only caper with a positive expectancy is horseracing, if you know people in low places



Boxing?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

wayneL said:


> It's the best odds if you know all the probabilities of each hand. Still negative expectancy though (of course).
> 
> The only caper with a positive expectancy is horseracing, if you know people in low places







Dona Ferentes said:


> Boxing?




If you don't wish to lose a limb, end up deceased or broke, for the uninitiated, roulette gives the best odds.

Even better than speccies on the ASX or BTC.



gg


----------



## againsthegrain

Garpal Gumnut said:


> If you don't wish to lose a limb, end up deceased or broke, for the uninitiated, roulette gives the best odds.
> 
> Even better than speccies on the ASX or BTC.
> 
> View attachment 136714
> 
> gg




I am a fan of roulette,  but realistically craps and casino war have the best ods,  without the dreaded 0 or the everhated double 00 tables to give the bank more edge


----------



## wayneL

Garpal Gumnut said:


> If you don't wish to lose a limb, end up deceased or broke, for the uninitiated, roulette gives the best odds.
> 
> Even better than speccies on the ASX or BTC.
> 
> View attachment 136714
> 
> gg



The thing with roulette is that you have a negative expectancy of 2.7% (single 0) and there is no way you can overcome that.

Whereas, blackjack is ~0.5%, IF you understand the probabilities and play to the odds of each hand. (Positive if you know how to count cards but they will kick you out).

My long-term expectancy with horse racing is about +1.5% on capital per meeting.

A lot of punters wouldn't think that as very spectacular but I have jigged my system so that it has an almost zero risk of ruin... And when you compound that, it's a nice little earner while you are drinking Guinness and having a good time.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

wayneL said:


> The thing with roulette is that you have a negative expectancy of 2.7% (single 0) and there is no way you can overcome that.
> 
> Whereas, blackjack is ~0.5%, IF you understand the probabilities and play to the odds of each hand. (Positive if you know how to count cards but they will kick you out).
> 
> My long-term expectancy with horse racing is about +1.5% on capital per meeting.
> 
> A lot of punters wouldn't think that as very spectacular but I have jigged my system so that it has an almost zero risk of ruin... And when you compound that, it's a nice little earner while you are drinking Guinness and having a good time.



Thank you @wayneL .

Like many punters I do not really know the best odds.

And as you point out it is the odds of each hand in Sr.Blackjack, too much mathematics for this poor little ex-Guinness drinker.

I have always admired punters who can calculate the expectancy. Per meeting 1.5% compounding is not to be sniffed at.

I like roulette, the vibe the ooh and the aah, so I'll put up with the negative expectancy and forgoe buying drinks.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Let us back to BTC. I too briefly was a Commsec Forum maven, though many years ago.

gg


----------



## againsthegrain

wayneL said:


> The thing with roulette is that you have a negative expectancy of 2.7% (single 0) and there is no way you can overcome that.
> 
> Whereas, blackjack is ~0.5%, IF you understand the probabilities and play to the odds of each hand. (Positive if you know how to count cards but they will kick you out).
> 
> My long-term expectancy with horse racing is about +1.5% on capital per meeting.
> 
> A lot of punters wouldn't think that as very spectacular but I have jigged my system so that it has an almost zero risk of ruin... And when you compound that, it's a nice little earner while you are drinking Guinness and having a good time.




Most casinos use multiple and multiple decks now so card counting is a bit obselete but blackjack or casino war is as close to 50/50 gamble


----------



## wayneL

againsthegrain said:


> Most casinos use multiple and multiple decks now so card counting is a bit obselete but blackjack or casino war is as close to 50/50 gamble



It's harder but not impossible for those who are supremely numerate (not me, I get lost with him two or three hands LOL)

No casino game is 50/50 otherwise there is no house edge, obviously.

There must be a house edge in every game to pay for the staff, facility, and overheads.... It's why they don't like it if you figure out a way to beat their @ss.

Even in horse racing the corporates will ban you as soon as they figure out that you have worked out a positive expectancy.

Thank God for Betfair... Being a commission model, they make most of their money from winners.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

againsthegrain said:


> Most casinos use multiple and multiple decks now so card counting is a bit obselete but blackjack or casino war is as close to 50/50 gamble



It has been a while since I've been to the Casino.

Casino War looks interesting. 

It is a bit like BTC.

gg


----------



## againsthegrain

wayneL said:


> It's harder but not impossible for those who are supremely numerate (not me, I get lost with him two or three hands LOL)
> 
> No casino game is 50/50 otherwise there is no house edge, obviously.
> 
> There must be a house edge in every game to pay for the staff, facility, and overheads.... It's why they don't like it if you figure out a way to beat their @ss.
> 
> Even in horse racing the corporates will ban you as soon as they figure out that you have worked out a positive expectancy.
> 
> Thank God for Betfair... Being a commission model, they make most of their money from winners.




Yeah thats right, technically its 50/50 chance but its the payouts where house gets the edge,  I think they pay out less on a draw or whatever. Only need a lower payout under 1 condition which will eventually happen and in the long run the bank gets the edge.

But its romantic to get a few beers, one of those cards of the roulette wheel and mark where the ball has already landed and try map the segments hit.  A true gentlemen's game!


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin live price: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16


Ethereum live price: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^ETHUSD&p=0&t=16


----------



## noirua

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which monitors market sentiment using several sources, remains in a state of “extreme fear” with a reading of 20. The index, which sides along a scale of 1 to 100, plunged as low as 13 last week.

Nevertheless, net inflows into Bitcoin and multi-coin funds suggest that institutional money is slowly returning to the market. While traders remain at odds over whether the market has actually bottomed, long-term investors posit that a sub-$40,000 Bitcoin is an attractive buy opportunity.








						Is the bottom in? Institutional crypto funds record second week of inflows
					

Digital asset funds recorded heavy outflows at the start of 2022, but the tide appears to be slowly shifting.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## greggles

ASIC talking about "regulatory responses" to the cryptocurrency market and taking "the first steps towards regulating crypto-assets which underlie exchange-traded products."





__





						22-011MR ASIC quarterly update October to December 2021  | ASIC - Australian Securities and Investments Commission
					






					asic.gov.au
				




It's a bit vague but attempts at crypto regulation were inevitable. Governments must hate things they can't control. I imagine announcements such as this will spook the crypto market. Australia is a small fish, but "regulatory responses" from larger fish cannot be too far away.


----------



## mullokintyre

greggles said:


> ASIC talking about "regulatory responses" to the cryptocurrency market and taking "the first steps towards regulating crypto-assets which underlie exchange-traded products."



It seems that the hand of control is starting crush cryptos.
The USA is joining the rush to crush.
From Coindesk


> The Biden administration is readying an executive order for release as early as next month that will outline a comprehensive government strategy on cryptocurrencies and ask federal agencies to determine their risks and opportunities, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing unnamed sources.
> 
> 
> The directive would place the White House in a central role overseeing efforts to set policies and regulate digital assets, Bloomberg reported.
> Federal agencies have already been studying or providing regulatory guidance around the digital asset sector for years.
> The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission have issued guidance letters, informal statements and public rule-making efforts to direct how different aspects of the crypto industry should comply with federal law. But these efforts have not been coordinated in a single document or by one agency.
> Biden Administration senior officials have met multiple times to discuss the directive, which will be presented to the president in the next few weeks, according to Bloomberg.



These potential interferences by "the authorities"  may explain BTC  fall from grace.
From  The Australian


> One of the boldest claims advanced to justify the remarkable rise in the value of bitcoin towards the end of last year was that the digital currency was set to rival gold as a long-term store of value.
> Indeed, Goldman Sachs even cited these supposed inflation-proof qualities as justification for its eye-catching prediction at the end of last year that bitcoin could hit $US100,000 ($140,000) over the next five years. The investment bank noted that the cryptocurrency already accounted for 20 per cent of what it called the “store of value” market, comprising gold and bitcoin, and suggested that this could rise above 50 per cent.
> 
> That prediction has not survived its first contact with economic reality. As the world’s big economies grapple with the highest inflation in decades, the price of bitcoin has tumbled. It stands at $US37,563, more than 40 per cent below its November peak. Meanwhile, the price of gold is broadly unchanged since the start of the year, suggesting that bitcoin’s share of the “store of value” market is down to about 10 per cent.



I guess those who invested early and got out at or near the top will be thinking what a great investment.
Those left holding the bag may think somewhat less of it.
Those still holding gold somewhat relieved.
Mick


----------



## Country Lad

Not exactly on topic but I don't know where else to put this. It seems Twiggy has had enough of his photos being used in crypto scams.

*Billionaire Andrew Forrest launched criminal proceedings against Facebook*


----------



## Sean K

Not surprising someone found a way to hack into an exchange for Bitcoin, or whatever they've done.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

@Sean K,  Gold also gets stolen all the time. War, famine, plague and crime. 

Watching BTC v Gold. 

There is a support/resistance line at 23.87 oz Gold for one Bitcoin. 

Gold is unfortunately temporarily dependent on BTC's price to an extent. 

Gold is generally rising v BTC and it now costs 1/4- 1/2 an ounce less to buy 1 BTC than it did yesterday. 





gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> @Sean K,  Gold also gets stolen all the time. War, famine, plague and crime.
> 
> Watching BTC v Gold.
> 
> There is a support/resistance line at 23.87 oz Gold for one Bitcoin.
> 
> Gold is unfortunately temporarily dependent on BTC's price to an extent.
> 
> Gold is generally rising v BTC and it now costs 1/4- 1/2 an ounce less to buy 1 BTC than it did yesterday.
> 
> 
> View attachment 137268
> 
> 
> gg



I think the US gov confiscated gold in the 30s for a nominal fee…


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> I think the US gov confiscated gold in the 30s for a nominal fee…



Trajan a good Roman Emperor confiscated all the gold mines and gold of the the king of the Dacians, Decebalus, when the latter twice crossed him around about 100AD. 

No fee.

Trajan's gold coins are still being found. 

I wonder whether they will be finding Gold or BTC in 2000 years time?

gg


----------



## noirua

Russian government and central bank agree to treat Bitcoin as currency
					

Cryptocurrency transactions of more than 600,000 rubles (roughly $8,000) will have to be declared or be considered a criminal act.




					cointelegraph.com
				



The report also highlights that cryptocurrency transactions of more than 600,000 rubles (roughly $8,000) would have to be declared; otherwise, it could be considered a criminal act. Those who illegally accept cryptocurrencies as payment will incur fines.


----------



## noirua

BlackRock expected to offer crypto trading as Three Arrows exec says long Bitcoin, ETH in 2022
					

Long BTC, ETH in 2022 says Zhu Su as BlackRock reportedly prepares crypto trading.




					cointelegraph.com
				



In a tweet on Feb. 10, Zhu, co-founder of hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC), argued that BTC and ETH were the best options for investment this year, along with oil, while the S&P 500 is a no-go.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin and Ethereum rally continues on Russia and Black Rock approval
					

Overall, 73 of the top 100 cryptos were trading in green territory



					www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

noirua said:


> Bitcoin and Ethereum rally continues on Russia and Black Rock approval
> 
> 
> Overall, 73 of the top 100 cryptos were trading in green territory
> 
> 
> 
> www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk



It appears that BTC is not responding well to the threats of war in The Ukraine. 

It will be interesting to see if it will rebound as most markets do some weeks after Russia invade. 

Presently it is plummeting. 




gg


----------



## CityIndex

Bitcoin can almost be thought of as a leveraged bet on tech at the moment, given its increasingly strong positive correlation with the NASDAQ. Therefore, last night’s sell-off is unsurprising, as the escalating situation in Ukraine sparked risk-off trading. If tensions in Eastern Europe do boil over, we could see continued rotation into “safe-haven” assets. This would likely cause BTC to break below the key psychological level at $40k, exposing it to a potential retest of the January lows.

However, if the situation ends up subsiding, BTC could bounce and resume its uptrend as risk-appetite returns to the market.

All trading carries risk, but it will be very interesting to see how this situation develops heading into the weekend.


----------



## wayneL

So is bitcoin etc a risk on, or a risk off asset?

Because it sure as hell behaves like a risk on asset in my book.

In other unrelated news, I've just traded in my work truck for a rickshaw and two Clydesdales


----------



## mullokintyre

wayneL said:


> So is bitcoin etc a risk on, or a risk off asset?
> 
> Because it sure as hell behaves like a risk on asset in my book.
> 
> In other unrelated news, I've just traded in my work truck for a rickshaw and two Clydesdales



So, I have some environmentally friendly hay that the Clydesdales may be interested in.
Completely Organic, all bales are gender non binary whose preferred pronoun is they, no slave labour was used in their production, and bale string is rainbow coloured. 
Only 0.1 bitcoins each.
Plus transport.
Mick


----------



## wayneL

mullokintyre said:


> So, I have some environmentally friendly hay that the Clydesdales may be interested in.
> Completely Organic, all bales are gender non binary whose preferred pronoun is they, no slave labour was used in their production, and bale string is rainbow coloured.
> Only 0.1 bitcoins each.
> Plus transport.
> Mick



Give it a month or two and that might even be a good deal, and the girls could make pretty lead ropes out of the bale string


----------



## Trader X

wayneL said:


> So is bitcoin etc a risk on, or a risk off asset?



Since Bitcoin has no intrinsic value it only becomes risk off when trading at $0 per satoshi and finally recognized as the unregulated financial con job it was from the beginning.  Otherwise it continues to rank among the highest risk "assets" just behind the other 10,000+ sh$t coins requiring ever more fiat currency to flow into the crypto casino to enrich promoters, whales and pump and dump merchants at the expense of hodlers.  

Exploiting a financial mania...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

mullokintyre said:


> So, I have some environmentally friendly hay that the Clydesdales may be interested in.
> Completely Organic, all bales are gender non binary whose preferred pronoun is they, no slave labour was used in their production, and bale string is rainbow coloured.
> Only 0.1 bitcoins each.
> Plus transport.
> Mick



I will be selling the first HNFT at a competitive auction online from next Monday. 

The first Hay Non-Fungible Token will be available from our sister hotel in Byron Bay from Monday 28th February. 

BYO Dope.

Eliminate transport costs for your fodder.

gg


----------



## mullokintyre

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I will be selling the first HNFT at a competitive auction online from next Monday.
> 
> The first Hay Non-Fungible Token will be available from our sister hotel in Byron Bay from Monday 28th February.
> 
> BYO Dope.
> 
> Eliminate transport costs for your fodder.
> 
> gg



I think Byron Boy already has plenty of dopes of their own.
From what I have read, some of them inhabit the local council.
Mick


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Nonetheless and despite all the foregoing etc. etc. there is no doubt that BTC has made a recovery on reasonably high volume from its recent 5 day nadir of  35000 to now trade about 39000.

Which is over 10% gain. 

Good if you can pick it. 

I am also told that Russia despite Mickey Mouse sanctions from Ole Joe Biden will skate about these by its oligarchs aka bagmen using crypto. 

Which can only be good for BTC. 

gg


----------



## Trader X

BTC currently trading at 38300, and its bounce pretty much in line with the tech space overnight performance of +7%.  So yes, risk assets bounced but the question is why.  Just an oversold reaction by traders or was the market view that interest rates are going nowhere while war tensions remain in focus or both?


----------



## noirua

Ukraine Bitcoin exchange volume spikes 200% as Russia war sparks currency concerns
					

Ukraine panic sees Bitcoin exchange Kuna profit from increased volumes.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Ukraine, which just this month finally ratified a law legalizing cryptocurrency after much to-and-fro between lawmakers, unsurprisingly saw interest in alternatives snap higher.


----------



## noirua

Some lift by BTC. Thoughts that some oligarchs' are moving cash from banks not under freezing conditions into Bitcoin. Appears the case in Cyprus where many keep large sums. Bitcoin the greatest haven.​​
Bitcoin Live Chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16


----------



## noirua

South Korean crypto market grows to $45.9B in 2021 despite strict regulations
					

By the final quarter of 2021, the Korean regulators focus shifted towards crypto taxation, with a proposal to impose a 20% tax on crypto profits.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Russian crypto volume across major exchanges plunges by 50%
					

Russian crypto trading volume has plummeted despite increasing sanctions from the international community, proving that crypto may not be the best tool for avoiding sanctions.




					cointelegraph.com
				





> “Russia cannot use crypto to replace the hundreds of billions of dollars that could be potentially blocked or frozen.”



*Related: **European Commission to remove Russian banks from SWIFT cross-border network*
In the face of looming regulatory action from the international community, many of the world’s leading crypto exchanges have decided to blacklist sanctioned individuals and organizations. Binance, however, has refused requests to censor the accounts of “innocent” Russian customers.


----------



## noirua

💥BREAKING: Swiss city of Lugano will accept #Bitcoin as payment for taxes.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

noirua said:


> 💥BREAKING: Swiss city of Lugano will accept #Bitcoin as payment for taxes.



While I have never spent any time in Lugano Prison, one of Lugano's main claims to fame, this sweet Swiss more than a hamlet, is not without it's made men and colourful characters. 

Perhaps the Lugano Council has little other way of collecting taxes.









						Crime boss opens up about mob in Switzerland
					

A former mafia boss has come clean on Swiss public television as Italian justice authorities level charges against 174 alleged members of a powerful mob. Felice Ferrazzo, 55, said he ran the clan that bears his name for ten years before becoming a police informant in 2000. He spoke to Swiss...




					www.swissinfo.ch
				




gg


----------



## moXJO

Haven't traded crypto for a bit and just checked the boards. Looks like another fear/bear cycle, as everyone talks about how to cope going back to a real job. 

The memes are out in force as well.


----------



## Trader X

moXJO said:


> Looks like another fear/bear cycle, as everyone talks about how to cope going back to a real job.



Since the price of Bitcoin is basically unchanged since the same time last year, the hodlers thinking $100k Bitcoin was just over the horizon will now indeed need to reassess whether to return to their low paying service sector jobs.  Depends on how much tax free government assistance they continue to receive to remain unemployed.  Is Bitcoin in a bear cycle?  Many chartists would argue this has been the case since November last year.  But then a work colleague recently reiterated the maximalist mantra, buy, hold, never sell and you will be a millionaire eventually, LOL.


----------



## moXJO

Trader X said:


> Since the price of Bitcoin is basically unchanged since the same time last year, the hodlers thinking $100k Bitcoin was just over the horizon will now indeed need to reassess whether to return to their low paying service sector jobs.  Depends on how much tax free government assistance they continue to receive to remain unemployed.  Is Bitcoin in a bear cycle?  Many chartists would argue this has been the case since November last year.  But then a work colleague recently reiterated the maximalist mantra, buy, hold, never sell and you will be a millionaire eventually, LOL.
> 
> View attachment 138707



That's just it some are just 'holding' till it hits a million. Considering that will crimp supply, it has to put a floor down.


----------



## Trader X

moXJO said:


> That's just it some are just 'holding' till it hits a million. Considering that will crimp supply, it has to put a floor down.



Listened to Bitcoin evangelist Robert Breedlove make a similar assertion in an interview.  The "dematerialized asset" that is Bitcoin only has limited circulation due to all the "hodlers" who, supposedly, will never sell their Bitcoin.  The underlying assumption being this will not only set a floor price at some level, but eventually lead to amazing gains as in the past.  A Lamborghini in the garage is only a question of patience but of course means selling at some stage.  This may actually eventuate if many will not sell no matter the price movement, but I suggest that floor price is somewhere deep in the basement and after the smart money has fully existed the casino.


----------



## noirua

CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data
					

Leader in cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, blockchain, DeFi, digital finance and Web 3.0 news with analysis, video and live price updates.




					www.coindesk.com


----------



## Jeda

the bit coin boat has left the port, next one is due after current passengers have emptied thier wallets on the drinks package


----------



## Trader X

Jeda said:


> the bit coin boat has left the port, next one is due after current passengers have emptied thier wallets on the drinks package



That crypto ship has already sailed but the next port of call is the bottom of the ocean.  But yes, while the unsinkable Cryptotanic is taking on water on its way to the bottom, might as well open up the crypto wallet and spend up big while you still can.  But then you should never sell those block chain ledger entries because they are dematerialized digital gold.


----------



## DB008

​


----------



## Trader X

When holding dematerialized crypto casino chips does not bail you out of a difficult position...

Cashless and flightless, Russian tourists stuck in Thailand​"Many have cash and those with UnionPay credit cards, which are issued by a Chinese financial services company, can still use them, *but payment by cryptocurrency is not allowed*"...

An example of how an "unconfiscatable" crypto asset (totally erroneous assertion) can easily be rendered useless such that holding good old fashioned fiat is not only preferable but necessary.


----------



## noirua

Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, DOT, SAND, RUNE, ZEC
					

BTC’s technical setup suggests a potential breakout to the upside and charts suggest DOT, SAND, RUNE and ZEC would be the first to benefit from any bullish price action.




					cointelegraph.com
				



The current neutral setup of Bitcoin has kept the analysts guessing. Analytics resource material indicators warned that Bitcoin could plunge. However, they advised investors to be ready to buy the dip as they believe that the “bounce can change your life.”


----------



## noirua

Trader X said:


> When holding dematerialized crypto casino chips does not bail you out of a difficult position...
> 
> Cashless and flightless, Russian tourists stuck in Thailand​"Many have cash and those with UnionPay credit cards, which are issued by a Chinese financial services company, can still use them, *but payment by cryptocurrency is not allowed*"...
> 
> An example of how an "unconfiscatable" crypto asset (totally erroneous assertion) can easily be rendered useless such that holding good old fashioned fiat is not only preferable but necessary.



Another method of payment is the increasing use of gold backed debit cards. Most just keep the gold on their cards though they are useful if a Fiat card is refused. I have a Tally gold backed debit card that is backed by gold held.

-----








						How to Get a Gold-Backed Debit Card
					

While precious metals are a great way to diversify your assets, you can't walk into a store and pay in gold - unless you have a gold-backed debit card.




					nomadcapitalist.com
				



Gold-backed debit cards aren’t a necessity for most investors, but if you’d like to make your precious metal assets more liquid, they can be a useful tool.
-----

Many oligarchs are thought to hold multiple cards to get round the need to exchange Fiat currencies. There are also cards that are backed by other commodities.


----------



## Trader X

noirua said:


> Gold-backed debit cards aren’t a necessity for most investors, but if you’d like to make your precious metal assets more liquid, they can be a useful tool.



The Tally gold backed debit card looks interesting although custodial and transactional costs are not disclosed on their site.  I prefer to transact with a local precious metals dealer where the buy/sell prices are updated daily and I can easily convert gold to fiat although it's not immediate.


----------



## noirua

Trader X said:


> The Tally gold backed debit card looks interesting although custodial and transactional costs are not disclosed on their site.  I prefer to transact with a local precious metals dealer where the buy/sell prices are updated daily and I can easily convert gold to fiat although it's not immediate.



I'm not sure if you are referring to the UK or the USA Tally cards. They are quite different companies. I use the UK Tally card.








						What you need to know about: Tally › Good With Money
					

Here




					good-with-money.com
				











						Money made for the 21st century
					

Tally® is physical gold used as digital cash. Deposit money in Tally and it sits in physical gold until you spend it on your debit card - instantly in any local currency.




					www.tallymoney.com
				




The card appears costly at 1% per year though I send money abroad via Tally with no charges or fees of any kind. An increasing number of companies have no problems with transfers as the amount of trading has been increasing sharply in the last 18 months.








						Tally Money International Transfers & Exchange Rate Review | MoneyTransfers.com
					

Find out more about Tally Money International Payments. Save on international money transfers today with MoneyTransfers.com




					moneytransfers.com
				




You can tell it could be expensive if paying from dollars to euros though paying in gold is the best method. It takes awhile to understand and many people fail to spend a few hours understanding all the information before using it - quite vital as it is only too easy to screw up. It is so easy to accidentally pay in Fiat when several more patient clicks and its covered in gold. Also the above article does miss out the more complicated transactions - probably only meant for those paying in shops in various countries: On the other hand it is a money transfer article.

* I am a shareholder in Tally Limited.


----------



## CityIndex

Bitcoin trading at 3-week highs after the technology sector led gains on Wall Street overnight reiterates a point made on this thread a few weeks ago that it is essentially a high-beta risk asset which can potentially act as a leveraged bet on tech.

If BTC can now manage its first weekly close above $44,000 this year, it might allow for a strong move higher. However, all trading carries risk, and if we see rising yields weigh on tech shares, it won’t be surprising to see an intensified decline in the crypto markets.


----------



## mullokintyre

noirua said:


> I'm not sure if you are referring to the UK or the USA Tally cards. They are quite different companies. I use the UK Tally card.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What you need to know about: Tally › Good With Money
> 
> 
> Here
> 
> 
> 
> 
> good-with-money.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Money made for the 21st century
> 
> 
> Tally® is physical gold used as digital cash. Deposit money in Tally and it sits in physical gold until you spend it on your debit card - instantly in any local currency.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tallymoney.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The card appears costly at 1% per year though I send money abroad via Tally with no charges or fees of any kind. An increasing number of companies have no problems with transfers as the amount of trading has been increasing sharply in the last 18 months.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tally Money International Transfers & Exchange Rate Review | MoneyTransfers.com
> 
> 
> Find out more about Tally Money International Payments. Save on international money transfers today with MoneyTransfers.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> moneytransfers.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You can tell it could be expensive if paying from dollars to euros though paying in gold is the best method. It takes awhile to understand and many people fail to spend a few hours understanding all the information before using it - quite vital as it is only too easy to screw up. It is so easy to accidentally pay in Fiat when several more patient clicks and its covered in gold. Also the above article does miss out the more complicated transactions - probably only meant for those paying in shops in various countries: On the other hand it is a money transfer article.
> 
> * I am a shareholder in Tally Limited.



Thanks for that Noirua, one of my sons has been interested in Tally, and I have only just started following it.
Have they relisted on the LSE yet? 
According to the website, they were listed as LION on the LSE, but I can no longer find that code.
Appreciate your  comments.
Mick


----------



## noirua

mullokintyre said:


> Thanks for that Noirua, one of my sons has been interested in Tally, and I have only just started following it.
> Have they relisted on the LSE yet?
> According to the website, they were listed as LION on the LSE, but I can no longer find that code.
> Appreciate your  comments.
> Mick











						Investors
					






					www.tallymoney.com
				



5 January 2022 - Founder Director Loan & Placing, and TVR


			https://www.tallymoney.com/downloads/rns-reach-director-loan-and-placing-2022-01-04.pdf
		

It is part of the Company’s corporate strategy to Standard List on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange (“IPO”), albeit the final share price and listing date is not yet known.


----------



## wayneL

So what you effectively have with Tally is a - 1% interest rate, however you have a currency that cannot be debased by Gumin action (just market flucs)... a sort of "antibond", if you will... (Loosest possible definition of bonds there but just thinking aloud)

Interesting


----------



## noirua

Https://youtu.be/8Re4SIfMFBc
"Most People Have No Idea What's Coming.." Max Keiser | Bitcoin Will EAT EVERY Other Asset
51,777 views Mar 16, 2022


----------



## noirua

Https://youtu.be/SbDF_aONCSI
Crypto Price Prediction 2022 - 🚀
53,249 viewsMar 29, 2022


----------



## Trader X

In the news, Bitcoin pumper and crybaby keynote speaker at the Bitcoin 2022 conference, Peter Thiel, blames "sociopathic grandpa" Warren Buffett and other members of a “finance gerontocracy” for holding back Bitcoin from reaching $100K!  So the 30% decline in BTC over the last 12 months can largely be attributed to these old world order grandpas casting doubt on the future of the modern tulip bulb and daring to challenge the new orthodoxy of self-promoting crypto elites like Theil.  Self-evident truth (with no supporting evidence required) or sensational attention seeking nonsense from a shill?  I am going with the latter.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2022/04/07/peter-thiel-crypto-bitcoin-blockchain-miami/?sh=34cc603e46e7​https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...imon-buffett-and-fink-as-finance-gerontocracy


----------



## Trader X

noirua said:


> Https://youtu.be/SbDF_aONCSI
> Crypto Price Prediction 2022 - 🚀
> 53,249 viewsMar 29, 2022



Let's see how BTC responds to rising interest rates and inflation rather than rubbing the BTC chartist crystal ball.  So far, it's not looking very promising for the price of digital fiat from here.


----------



## over9k

Downside protection through SQQQ


----------



## Trader X

Also noteworthy is BTC price correlation with ARKK...


----------



## CityIndex

Trader X said:


> Let's see how BTC responds to rising interest rates and inflation rather than rubbing the BTC chartist crystal ball. So far, it's not looking very promising for the price of digital fiat from here.



Yup, it definitely doesn’t look very promising, and yesterday’s sharp decline to break $40k on higher volume could open the door for a retest of the February lows.

With tech stocks likely to see continued pressure as they lose the support of ultra-easy monetary policy, it will be interesting to see how BTC trades for the remainder of this year given its high correlation with the NASDAQ100.

All trading carries risk, but it will definitely be interesting to see how price moves from here, especially with US CPI figures due tonight.


----------



## qldfrog

CityIndex said:


> Yup, it definitely doesn’t look very promising, and yesterday’s sharp decline to break $40k on higher volume could open the door for a retest of the February lows.
> 
> With tech stocks likely to see continued pressure as they lose the support of ultra-easy monetary policy, it will be interesting to see how BTC trades for the remainder of this year given its high correlation with the NASDAQ100.
> 
> All trading carries risk, but it will definitely be interesting to see how price moves from here, especially with US CPI figures due tonight.



From a non fanatic view: i really hoped initially BTC would be digital gold..it is now pretty clear BTC follows the nasdaq more than Gold or PMs.
Not what i wanted to hear..i sold off some of my BTC and the ETH.just a bit of BTC left.will get more if it crashes drastically and i see the nasdaq recovery ahead..but for the time being, mostly out


----------



## againsthegrain

qldfrog said:


> From a non fanatic view: i really hoped initially BTC would be digital gold..it is now pretty clear BTC follows the nasdaq more than Gold or PMs.
> Not what i wanted to hear..i sold off some of my BTC and the ETH.just a bit of BTC left.will get more if it crashes drastically and i see the nasdaq recovery ahead..but for the time being, mostly out




Think the world is ready for the next big ponzi.. bring it on!


----------



## qldfrog

againsthegrain said:


> Think the world is ready for the next big ponzi.. bring it on!



What about a fed crypto USD or EURO?
Imagine the scheme:
Get in, great 1% interest rate  for all swapped to crypto dollar then pssshit, devaluation 1 for 100 all overnight, a bit more if you have 6 jabs, no speed ticket and a clear police history.


----------



## Trader X

qldfrog said:


> What about a fed crypto USD or EURO?



A U.S. CBDC is coming.  CBDC and related regulatory legislation will marginalize existing non-sovereign crypto to such an extent that those that survive will trade at nowhere near current prices.  This was always going to be the ultimate outcome of the crypto revolution.  CBDC will eventually dominate and expose all the transactional inefficiencies of existing crypto while regulations will be used to stifle or effectively eliminate competition, constrain ramping and dampen speculation.  Those who refuse to recognize this inevitable outcome are destined to see their "digital asset" holdings dematerialize.

Biden takes big step toward government-backed digital currency​


----------



## over9k

Bitcoin broke correlation in the same way. It's now become a risk sensitive stock - runs with all the growth/speccy plays. Essentially a high beta variant of the NDX. 

Which is also the complete opposite of what it was doing. Curious hey?


----------



## CityIndex

The correlation between Bitcoin and US tech actually broke-down overnight, as BTC held relatively flat while NDX sold-off despite the fall in yields, perhaps highlighting the equity investors’ focus on earnings at the moment.

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see whether these two assets quickly revert to trading in tandem, or if the divergence continues as the prospect of peaking inflation supports BTC, while disappointing earnings over the coming days weighs on NDX.


----------



## over9k

CityIndex said:


> The correlation between Bitcoin and US tech actually broke-down overnight, as BTC held relatively flat while NDX sold-off despite the fall in yields, perhaps highlighting the equity investors’ focus on earnings at the moment.
> 
> All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see whether these two assets quickly revert to trading in tandem, or if the divergence continues as the prospect of peaking inflation supports BTC, while disappointing earnings over the coming days weighs on NDX.



The banks actually bounced in response to treasuries too, so we might be back to the old method. Stay tuned I guess?


----------



## Trader X

Bitcoin investors tend to have low financial literacy???​Yes, according to the BOC. 

"Based on a series of surveys, central bank researchers found that around 5 per cent of Canadians owned bitcoin between 2018 and 2020. That ownership was “concentrated among young, educated men with high household income and low financial literacy,” the researchers said in a paper summing up the survey results released this week."

"The researchers found that bitcoin owners tend to have a greater knowledge of how bitcoin technology works than non-owners, but score lower on general financial knowledge questions. At the same time, “Canadians who are financially literate are more likely to be aware of bitcoin [than the average Canadian] but less likely to own it,” 

Anecdotally, my discussions with those in my social circle who own crypto tend to confirm this.  Many have a good understanding of crypto, blockchain tech and even the history of money, think of themselves as investors when they are actually just speculators and have low financial literacy in general.  There are exceptions of course but they are definitely in the minority.


----------



## Trader X

CityIndex said:


> The correlation between Bitcoin and US tech actually broke-down overnight, as BTC held relatively flat while NDX sold-off despite the fall in yields, perhaps highlighting the equity investors’ focus on earnings at the moment.



The correlation between Bitcoin and US tech resumed on Friday after a brief 3 day rally in BTC has completely reversed. As interest rates continue to rise fueling more weakness in the tech sector, BTC could be in for a very rough ride over the next 12 months if this correlation continues.

 Suspect only die hard hodlers will ride out the fall hoping history will repeat and BTC rally after a big fall.  Problem is there is more leverage than ever propping up BTC by entities like MicroStrategy.  If forced to unwind such positions, this could dramatically escalate a price collapse in BTC.


----------



## wayneL

Trader X said:


> The correlation between Bitcoin and US tech resumed on Friday after a brief 3 day rally in BTC has completely reversed. As interest rates continue to rise fueling more weakness in the tech sector, BTC could be in for a very rough ride over the next 12 months if this correlation continues.
> 
> Suspect only die hard hodlers will ride out the fall hoping history will repeat and BTC rally after a big fall.  Problem is there is more leverage than ever propping up BTC by entities like MicroStrategy.  If forced to unwind such positions, this could dramatically escalate a price collapse in BTC.



Once I noticed the correlation with Tech stocks( plus a few other concerns), I have been drastically reducing my HODL. 

I will keep a smallish position in BTC and ETH, but if everything turns to crap this year as I expect, Cryptos will take it where the sun don't shine also, IMO.

It has basically become just another risk on instrument, again IMO


----------



## over9k

The entire market plummeted. Literally every sector was deep into the red. Bitcoin could be correlated with _anything_ other than being a haven/flight to safety and it would have dropped.




BITCOIN ALSO DROPPED 3%, WHAT A TERRIBLE INVESTMENT, MAN YOU'D BE FEELING SO DUMB IF YOU'D BOUGHT SOME BITCOIN INSTEAD OF STOCKS WOULDN'T YOU?

Honestly, this dude's analysis is about as deep as a puddle of rain.


----------



## wayneL

over9k said:


> The entire market plummeted. Literally every sector was deep into the red. Bitcoin could be correlated with _anything_ other than being a haven/flight to safety and it would have dropped.



'cept bonds. (Though generally in a downtrend and presenting with some other interesting signals)

That kind of makes sense on one level but little sense on another. It kinda makes me think this isn't "it", not yet anyway.


----------



## over9k

wayneL said:


> 'cept bonds. (Though generally in a downtrend and presenting with some other interesting signals)
> 
> That kind of makes sense on one level but little sense on another. It kinda makes me think this isn't "it", not yet anyway.



Bonds are inversely correlated to yields, so they were slaughtered too. 

The USD was literally the only thing that ran, ironically actually placing quite a nice cushion on crypto prices in AUD.


----------



## over9k

This is why bonds pumped.


----------



## wayneL

over9k said:


> Bonds are inversely correlated to yields, so they were slaughtered too.
> 
> The USD was literally the only thing that ran, ironically actually placing quite a nice cushion on crypto prices in AUD.



Yeah, MPT an' all that.

I am waiting for the run in yields. Then we will see the rubber meet the road. Yes there is all the priced ****, I want to see when reality meets expectations.


----------



## Trader X

Bitcoin leverage ratio is increasing, interesting time to be making ever higher leveraged bets on Bitcoin...

Chart Description
"The exchange's open interest divided by their coins reserve which shows how much leverage is used by users on average.
Increase in values indicates more investors are taking high leverage risk in the derivative trade."


----------



## greggles

Say what you like about the fundamentals, but Bitcoin has been great for technical traders this year. You could have done very well for yourself buying at $38,000 and selling around $44,000.


----------



## Trader X

greggles said:


> Say what you like about the fundamentals, but Bitcoin has been great for technical traders this year. You could have done very well for yourself buying at $38,000 and selling around $44,000.



True enough, but then Bitcoin is not touted as a trading instrument.  Instead, you're meant to buy and hold your digital gold in your digital wallet long term since there will only ever be *2.1 quadrillion* satoshis so supply is limited.  Limited supply must equate to an ever rising price right?  Just ignore the price action over the last 12 months as an aberration.


----------



## greggles

Trader X said:


> True enough, but then Bitcoin is not touted as a trading instrument.  Instead, you're meant to buy and hold your digital gold in your digital wallet long term since there will only ever be *2.1 quadrillion* satoshis so supply is limited.  Limited supply must equate to an ever rising price right?  Just ignore the price action over the last 12 months as an aberration.




There's no way I'd hold crypto long term, but it's the only 24/7/365 market that I'm aware of; and you can't beat the volatility. Also, as I pointed out above the price action patterns seem more predicable than that of other markets, such as the forex market, which is notoriously difficult to trade.

I'm still trying to understand the crypto space in terms of the technology, but ultimately if you're just trading it, it doesn't matter.


----------



## noirua

Peter Wall, Argo Blockchain chief executive officer, discusses full-year earnings results, expanding mining capacity in Texas, and U.S. cryptocurrency regulation.  He speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance: Early Edition."


----------



## Trader X

Buffet and Munger on Bitcoin

Buffett...
“Whether it goes up or down in the next year, or five or 10 years, I don’t know. But the one thing I’m pretty sure of is that it doesn’t produce anything,” Buffett said. “It’s got a magic to it and people have attached magics to lots of things.”

Not quite right Warren, Bitcoin mining produces a lot of pollution.

Munger...
“In my life, I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison to somebody else – and bitcoin does all three,” Munger said. “In the first place, it’s stupid because it’s still likely to go to zero. It’s evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve System... and third, it makes us look foolish compared to the Communist leader in China. He was smart enough to ban bitcoin in China.”

I tend to agree with Munger with one proviso, the federal reserve system is a greater evil.


----------



## Knobby22

Trader X said:


> Buffet and Munger on Bitcoin
> 
> Buffett...
> “Whether it goes up or down in the next year, or five or 10 years, I don’t know. But the one thing I’m pretty sure of is that it doesn’t produce anything,” Buffett said. “It’s got a magic to it and people have attached magics to lots of things.”
> 
> Not quite right Warren, Bitcoin mining produces a lot of pollution.
> 
> Munger...
> “In my life, I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison to somebody else – and bitcoin does all three,” Munger said. “In the first place, it’s stupid because it’s still likely to go to zero. It’s evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve System... and third, it makes us look foolish compared to the Communist leader in China. He was smart enough to ban bitcoin in China.”
> 
> I tend to agree with Munger with one proviso, the federal reserve system is a greater evil.



Crypto has only been going OK due to stupidly high monetary liquidity and  a bit of old fashioned talking it up through the media. It is a computer game.

It isn't a currency. It has no backing. Transactions are too slow to use as a currency in any case.

Now that liquidity is being removed and cash can earn interest again, it is only a matter of time for this mass psychosis to end.

I give it a year. The bigger fool theory is in operation.


----------



## moXJO

Been watching the building going on behind the scenes. Still massive communities behind things like $eth and $sol. I still think they have pump potential. Simply down to the huge amounts of effort to build these ecosystems out. Lot of people invested. 

It reminds me of the original internet before everyone got on it. Kinda useless, but the potential was/is huge. People will work out how to monetise and the next lot of billionaires will be created. I'm not sure in what form the space will end up. But it's well worth watching.

I'm all out of crypto. Probably a few thousand hiding here and there in wallets I've forgotten or too lazy to check.


----------



## bluekelah

moXJO said:


> Been watching the building going on behind the scenes. Still massive communities behind things like $eth and $sol. I still think they have pump potential. Simply down to the huge amounts of effort to build these ecosystems out. Lot of people invested.
> 
> It reminds me of the original internet before everyone got on it. Kinda useless, but the potential was/is huge. People will work out how to monetise and the next lot of billionaires will be created. I'm not sure in what form the space will end up. But it's well worth watching.
> 
> I'm all out of crypto. Probably a few thousand hiding here and there in wallets I've forgotten or too lazy to check.



ETH should survive somewhat as it is used a lot by gamers in the form of wrapped ETH (WETH) to transaction for virtual items and NFTs players like to trade in games. However should we see a further wipe out in ETH prices, gamers will dump their game game tokens and WETH holdings and try to convert them back to USD or real life currencies. There would also be no impetus to participate in Play to Earn games anymore as prices of in game tokens and NFTs like characters or virtual land value crashes _> exodus of players as people return to real life. Many of these game companies would probably make losses and have to fold.

and yes I lived through the dotcom stock market boom, back then any company could have a webpage done for a silly idea and get IPOed for millions, very similar to the crypto story, and more lately the Non fungible tokens.

I reckon fed will be forced to be on track to hike rates and reverse their balance sheet. Means all the way down in a very short amount of time for crypto till end of the year. And if too many retail investors lose their pants, FED may use this excuse to clamp down on cryptos and regulate them out of existence.


----------



## moXJO

bluekelah said:


> ETH should survive somewhat as it is used a lot by gamers in the form of wrapped ETH (WETH) to transaction for virtual items and NFTs players like to trade in games. However should we see a further wipe out in ETH prices, gamers will dump their game game tokens and WETH holdings and try to convert them back to USD or real life currencies. There would also be no impetus to participate in Play to Earn games anymore as prices of in game tokens and NFTs like characters or virtual land value crashes _> exodus of players as people return to real life. Many of these game companies would probably make losses and have to fold.
> 
> and yes I lived through the dotcom stock market boom, back then any company could have a webpage done for a silly idea and get IPOed for millions, very similar to the crypto story, and more lately the Non fungible tokens.
> 
> I reckon fed will be forced to be on track to hike rates and reverse their balance sheet. Means all the way down in a very short amount of time for crypto till end of the year. And if too many retail investors lose their pants, FED may use this excuse to clamp down on cryptos and regulate them out of existence.



It's what evolves from this. I'm talking internet pre 1997 as well. The dotcom bust  was the shakeout Facebook, twitter, eBay, YouTube were basically what became usable for the masses. Plenty of others made money on the lower tiers. Yahoo was a notable scalp.

Imo similar will happen in crypto. There's a scaling issue at the moment. But there will be boring projects that service the industry and make a fortune.


----------



## Trader X

Knobby22 said:


> Crypto has only been going OK due to stupidly high monetary liquidity and  a bit of old fashioned talking it up through the media. It is a computer game.
> 
> Now that liquidity is being removed and cash can earn interest again, it is only a matter of time for this mass psychosis to end.



Lower monetary liquidity and a rising inflation and interest rate environment is finally testing crypto prices and so far crypto euphoria is fading fast.  Bitcoin down 11% last week and 20% in a month not the mention the even greater alt coin price crash.

There is also another factor flying under the radar underpinning Bitcoin, leverage.  Consider MicroStrategy, now a de facto Bitcoin ETF, headed by chief Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor who is known for his hyperbolic linguistic hallucinations about what Bitcoin represents. Saylor, via MicroStrategy, is using OPM and leverage to fund a total holding of 129,218 Bitcoins acquired for $3.97 billion, or $30,700 per coin. With Bitcoin currently trading under $34k, that's uncomfortably close to just break even.  Apparently, a margin call only kicks in at $21K Bitcoin but the loss recorded in financial statements will be huge long prior to BTC falling to 21k.  Any significant deleveraging in Bitcoin will accelerate the price slide and likely in dramatic fashion.


----------



## bluekelah

moXJO said:


> It's what evolves from this. I'm talking internet pre 1997 as well. The dotcom bust  was the shakeout Facebook, twitter, eBay, YouTube were basically what became usable for the masses. Plenty of others made money on the lower tiers. Yahoo was a notable scalp.
> 
> Imo similar will happen in crypto. There's a scaling issue at the moment. But there will be boring projects that service the industry and make a fortune.



Scaling will always be a big issue for distributed tech like blockchains as there is a lot of replication of data compared to a more efficient centralise system(thats why most stuff runs on centralised platforms, we already had distributed database systems 20 odd years ago but they were very inefficient compared to centralised version) I believe the current blockchain size is 390GB and growing, thats a lot of storage needed and replicated on every new node, not to mention transactions that have to be propagated throughout the distributed system will take up a lot of energy and computing power. Miners are needed to process these transactions but there is a cost there which can be quite high, especially as for like bitcoin, which gets higher as almost all the coins are close to getting mined out at the cap. Soon it will only be profitable for the biggest miners to mine bitcoin and transaction fees may skyrocket, gumming up the whole system. 

Of course there are other non blockchain cryptos like hedera hashtag that are made differently, can transact super quick and cheaply, no mining involved and could really work well for finance/payment applications, but they dont have the hype and marketing or widespread adoption that BTC/ETHER does.

IMHO crypto might be phased out if FED finally gets the tech to do a CBDC. Most other central banks are movin towards that, its a very simple thing to do, most people already have their cash in digital form in the BANKS, they can just change the AUD to e-AUD , just add a prefix and add a new "digital account" for you to keep it. and then make everyone use e-AUD for payments.


----------



## bluekelah

Trader X said:


> Lower monetary liquidity and a rising inflation and interest rate environment is finally testing crypto prices and so far crypto euphoria is fading fast.  Bitcoin down 11% last week and 20% in a month not the mention the even greater alt coin price crash.
> 
> There is also another factor flying under the radar underpinning Bitcoin, leverage.  Consider MicroStrategy, now a de facto Bitcoin ETF, headed by chief Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor who is known for his hyperbolic linguistic hallucinations about what Bitcoin represents. Saylor, via MicroStrategy, is using OPM and leverage to fund a total holding of 129,218 Bitcoins acquired for $3.97 billion, or $30,700 per coin. With Bitcoin currently trading under $34k, that's uncomfortably close to just break even.  Apparently, a margin call only kicks in at $21K Bitcoin but the loss recorded in financial statements will be huge long prior to BTC falling to 21k.  Any significant deleveraging in Bitcoin will accelerate the price slide and likely in dramatic fashion.



agreed, the price chart for bitcoin actually shows a likely sell down to 20k prices whereby the margin call could kick in and cause more selldown. In which case microstrategy might even fold. So far it has failed as a currency/medium of exchange, failed as store of value during risk off periods. Only claim it can have is really its useful for speculation.


----------



## over9k

moXJO said:


> It's what evolves from this. I'm talking internet pre 1997 as well. The dotcom bust  was the shakeout Facebook, twitter, eBay, YouTube were basically what became usable for the masses. Plenty of others made money on the lower tiers. Yahoo was a notable scalp.
> 
> Imo similar will happen in crypto. There's a scaling issue at the moment. But there will be boring projects that service the industry and make a fortune.



QFT


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> QFT



Queef token?
Quantum field theory?
Or
Quit fukcing trying?


----------



## Trader X

bluekelah said:


> IMHO crypto might be phased out if FED finally gets the tech to do a CBDC. Most other central banks are movin towards that, its a very simple thing to do, most people already have their cash in digital form in the BANKS, they can just change the AUD to e-AUD , just add a prefix and add a new "digital account" for you to keep it. and then make everyone use e-AUD for payments.



The key issue that crypto pumpers tend to scoff at.  All the crypto development effort and funds supporting it just serve as a free proof of concept for CBDC.  China was the first to say thanks and ban the competition.  Other central banks will follow suit, if not with outright bans, then erecting legal barriers, suffocating regulations and other restrictions to stifle competition with CBDC as legal tender.


----------



## over9k

moXJO said:


> Queef token?
> Quantum field theory?
> Or
> Quit fukcing trying?



Quoted For Truth 


Good god man, how old are you?


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> Quoted For Truth
> 
> 
> Good god man, how old are you?



My answers opened more doorways.

Also, I bought queef token


----------



## greggles

Bitcoin getting absolutely hammered, down $12,000 in the last month and $4,000 in the last 24 hours. Volume is increasing as the selloff intensifies. 

If BTC breaks down through $30,000 I think it will go much lower. It hit a low of $29,807 in the July rout of last year. Any move below that will trigger a lot of selling as fear takes hold.


----------



## over9k

Fear's well & truly taken hold. 

But markets everywhere have been massacred, so no reason why crypto wouldn't as well...


----------



## Trader X

greggles said:


> Bitcoin getting absolutely hammered, down $12,000 in the last month and $4,000 in the last 24 hours. Volume is increasing as the selloff intensifies.



Will be interesting to see how the current selloff plays out this time around compared with last July.  Correlation with tech selloff still quite evident and amplified on the downside as with other high risk speculative assets.


----------



## Trader X

over9k said:


> But markets everywhere have been massacred, so no reason why crypto wouldn't as well...



True enough but that goes against the narrative that Bitcoin is a store of value, inflation hedge, reserve asset etc.  Also, the percentage fall of BTC was 3x the Nasdaq (-4.3%) although inline with other spec tech plays like the ARK Innovation ETF.


----------



## over9k

Trader X said:


> True enough but that goes against the narrative that Bitcoin is a store of value, inflation hedge, reserve asset etc.  Also, the percentage fall of BTC was 3x the Nasdaq (-4.3%) although inline with other spec tech plays like the ARK Innovation ETF.



The narrative lately (even in this thread) has been that it's a risk asset, hence its decline almost perfectly in tandem with TQQQ.


----------



## moXJO

Trader X said:


> True enough but that goes against the narrative that Bitcoin is a store of value, inflation hedge, reserve asset etc.  Also, the percentage fall of BTC was 3x the Nasdaq (-4.3%) although inline with other spec tech plays like the ARK Innovation ETF




It's a store of excess dollars when the world is awash in govt stimulus. Tides going out for now.


----------



## CityIndex

over9k said:


> The narrative lately (even in this thread) has been that it's a risk asset, hence its decline almost perfectly in tandem with TQQQ.



You're right, and Bitcoin is currently trading higher along with US futures as risk assets are attempting to bounce.

Given its correlation with US tech, Bitcoin's movement over the coming days will likely depend the market's expectations for the the Fed's hiking plans. Therefore, US CPI this week could be key for BTC holding support at $30k. All trading carries risk, but signs of inflation having possibly peaked could help stage some sort of rebound, at least in the short term.


----------



## over9k

Correct, here was last night, worst night since the pandemic crash: 




However, look at the futures: 




As a result, there's a lot of talking heads speculating that we've found a bottom: 




So we crypto on the move again: 




And here's your correlation: 




As you can see, consistently a 90%+ correlation with QLD, which is the 2x nasdaq ETF.


----------



## qldfrog

Cryptos have been disappointing,i sold most of mine when it became clear that btc perf was nasdaq on steroids.
I like the concept of digital gold, independent from CB but it failed, and yes just pushed CB own cryptos..an absolute nightmare.
I made money when i sold my 8000 BTC, but not at the peak and lost a bit won a bit on ethernum ripple and exotics
Was fun while it lasted


----------



## qldfrog

PS: where do we have to queue to place a short on US microstrategy?
😊


----------



## gartley

Bullish Sentiment in cryptos is very poor atm. The correct ingredients in place to start a rally back to test highs.  Last up down legs have broken into 3 waves which means the sideways pattern has not resolved.  Looking to go long here


----------



## CityIndex

gartley said:


> Bullish Sentiment in cryptos is very poor atm. The correct ingredients in place to start a rally back to test highs.  Last up down legs have broken into 3 waves which means the sideways pattern has not resolved.  Looking to go long here



That’s an interesting analysis, and you could be right.

From a technical standpoint, holding the former support and key psychological level of $30k yesterday was important in allowing for a potential bounce.

However, bitcoin’s ability to rebound over the coming months may come down to global sentiment and recession concerns. Even in the short-term, tonight’s US CPI print could be crucial as it will likely determine whether markets continue to brace for a more aggressive hiking cycle, or see fears over a 75bps Fed hike ease.

All trading carries risk, but it will definitely be interesting to see if this was the low or if there is still more downside to come.


----------



## investtrader

Looks kinda like a large head and shoulder pattern to me. And if you turned that chart upside down, you would be thinking about going  long.
It's a worthless made-up 'asset' and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to 10,000 or less.


----------



## gartley

CityIndex said:


> That’s an interesting analysis, and you could be right.
> 
> From a technical standpoint, holding the former support and key psychological level of $30k yesterday was important in allowing for a potential bounce.
> 
> However, bitcoin’s ability to rebound over the coming months may come down to global sentiment and recession concerns. Even in the short-term, tonight’s US CPI print could be crucial as it will likely determine whether markets continue to brace for a more aggressive hiking cycle, or see fears over a 75bps Fed hike ease.
> 
> All trading carries risk, but it will definitely be interesting to see if this was the low or if there is still more downside to come.



Its just matter for entry criteria to be met first as daily and weekly cycle price projection have been met, however weekly projection range does allow for more downside but not without a rally first from the daily analysis and that is what I am focusing on now


----------



## Trader X

CityIndex said:


> Even in the short-term, tonight’s US CPI print could be crucial as it will likely determine whether markets continue to brace for a more aggressive hiking cycle, or see fears over a 75bps Fed hike ease.



Given the market reaction to a measly 50 basis point rise by the Fed, especially in the tech sector, and the likelihood of further interest rate rises over coming months, hard to imagine a strong rebound in risk assets.  With a likely rigged CPI print now around 9% or more, the Fed will probably only pause if a broad crash in financial markets occurs in reaction to rising rates similar to the selloff in 2008/2009.  Think it likely the Fed will be forced to pause at some point because of the huge impact rising rates will have in driving the deleveraging of a debt driven speculative asset bubble.


----------



## over9k

There's been three days of good numbers in china so there's a lot of speculation that their lockdowns will be lifted soon. As a result, the CSI300 is on the move, hstech is screaming, and U.S futures are all deep into the green with the NDX the highest.




Crypto is therefore on the move too.


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> There's been three days of good numbers in china so there's a lot of speculation that their lockdowns will be lifted soon. As a result, the CSI300 is on the move, hstech is screaming, and U.S futures are all deep into the green with the NDX the highest.
> 
> View attachment 141486
> 
> 
> Crypto is therefore on the move too.



China booming back after a lockdown is definitely one to look for.


----------



## Trader X

Looks like the Terra UST/Luna stablecoin price collapse and the threat of a large Bitcoin dump to prop up UST is undermining confidence in the crypto ecosystem house of cards.


----------



## greggles

The arse is dropping out of the Bitcoin price again tonight as the NASDAQ futures sink. It's down to around $29,300 at the moment, but it's looking like it's going much lower. I'm sensing a loss of confidence in the whole crypto space at the moment. Some of the altcoins are getting hammered.


----------



## over9k

Yeah just tracking at about twice the rate of the NDX just like I showed earlier. 

Futures bottomed at -1.2% and have recovered to -0.7% 4 mins before open so looks like the panic has subsided.


----------



## greggles

over9k said:


> Yeah just tracking at about twice the rate of the NDX just like I showed earlier.
> 
> Futures bottomed at -1.2% and have recovered to -0.7% 4 mins before open so looks like the panic has subsided.




UST has cratered. Down from 94c this time yesterday to 30c at around 5:30pm this afternoon. Not too stable for a stablecoin. LUNA is under $1. Nasty.


----------



## moXJO

I'd expect bitcoin to go $10k, or sub that.

I'm in a let it drop and pick through the ruins mood. The thing that will keep crypto around is the casino like wins you can have when it turns. 

Monetary policy tightening is causing (well founded) fears. So we need to work out if it's a hiccup due to supply chains and energy. Or something more substantial forming like a world recession. 

Either way it eventually moves forward and opportunities get thrown up. 

On the 21st April 730pm a mate told me to buy luffytoken. I didn't bother as I lost interest in crypto. Damn thing pumped. He made a fortune. So there are still gains around.

My guess is it's influencers getting together and pumping the stock amongst their followers.


----------



## Trader X

moXJO said:


> On the 21st April 730pm a mate told me to buy luffytoken. I didn't bother as I lost interest in crypto. Damn thing pumped. He made a fortune. So there are still gains around.



Good timing by your mate if he exited, Luffy is down -48% in the last 24hrs. When you're way ahead in a casino, it's wise to take some or all of your winnings off the table.



	

		
			
		

		
	
it's wise


----------



## over9k

Massive crash in the past few days and particularly in the last 24 hours, but you can see a pretty serious rebound occurring: 




Result from the talking heads: 




All pure speculation/astrology of course.


----------



## waterbottle

Where will the money go once crypto crashes?


----------



## grah33

why is crpto /bitcoin crashing so badly?


----------



## over9k

grah33 said:


> why is crpto /bitcoin crashing so badly?



Risk off sentiment in the market. 

The slaughter is not unique to crypto, which means there's absolutely nothing to glean from it occurring. Anyone who says otherwise is an idiot and/or an idiot with a lot of sour grapes.


----------



## againsthegrain

waterbottle said:


> Where will the money go once crypto crashes?



back to basics


----------



## Tyre Kicker

Down 30% in a week.

Crypto bulls must be pouring in atm. 

Surely!


----------



## over9k

Most of which has just been in the past few hours: 




However: 




While this is particularly high, 10% moves just on the day were not unusual for crypto even 12 months ago. 

There's an absolute killing to be made if you can pick the bottoms.


----------



## moXJO

Trader X said:


> Good timing by your mate if he exited, Luffy is down -48% in the last 24hrs. When you're way ahead in a casino, it's wise to take some or all of your winnings off the table.
> 
> View attachment 141540
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> it's wise



He has half his position left in there. I told him they are "pump and dumps". Not worth carrying half the trade during a downturn. 

Get out on the pump.


----------



## moXJO

waterbottle said:


> Where will the money go once crypto crashes?



Tangible sht.

Crypto just evaporated a lot of billionaires.


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> Most of which has just been in the past few hours:
> 
> View attachment 141557
> 
> 
> However:
> 
> View attachment 141558
> 
> 
> While this is particularly high, 10% moves just on the day were not unusual for crypto even 12 months ago.
> 
> There's an absolute killing to be made if you can pick the bottoms.



Crypto is finally looking interesting again. These wild swings is where the moneys at.


----------



## greggles

The complete destruction of LUNA has shaken the whole of the crypto space. Terra was considered one of the better DeFi projects. If it can happen to LUNA it can happen to any other of the other altcoins.

Fear has infected the crypto market. More losses are to come, and more profits for those who can trade the volatility.


----------



## moXJO

Hey, anyone check to see if El Salvador is still breathing.


----------



## moXJO

Xrp up 20%.

I thought crypto would be lower to tell you the truth. Stuff is still pretty high


----------



## moXJO

Threw a small "hail mary" position on luna. 

It's either toast or it may bull trap enough for a new lambo.

My reasoning:
It's had free advertising via all the bad news across newsites. That means a sht tonne of eyes on it.
 I'm hoping a small rise will trigger FOMO amongst a crowd, so they pile in. 

Or it crashes and burns.


----------



## moXJO

So many coins at 50% plus returns today.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

moXJO said:


> Xrp up 20%.
> 
> I thought crypto would be lower to tell you the truth. Stuff is still pretty high



I'm sorry @moXJO .

But I think Crypto is finally Траханий as the Ukranian cousins would say. 

gg


----------



## moXJO

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm sorry @moXJO .
> 
> But I think Crypto is finally Траханий as the Ukranian cousins would say.
> 
> gg



I only care about the profits.

And I do love me a market crash.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

moXJO said:


> I only care about the profits.
> 
> And I do love me a market crash.



Go for it, moXJO.

A profit is a profit. 

Maybe I'm too risk averse with crypto. 

I like the concept of ETH so if there is a crypto crash I may throw a few kopeks at that.

gg


----------



## moXJO

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Go for it, moXJO.
> 
> A profit is a profit.
> 
> Maybe I'm too risk averse with crypto.
> 
> I like the concept of ETH so if there is a crypto crash I may throw a few kopeks at that.
> 
> gg



Luna supply is definitely in shtcoin territory. 

Don't anyone else jump on without realising it ain't getting back to $1 with the billions of coins that were generated. 

It's hope for a couple of bags and out.


----------



## over9k

ETH is 25% off the low too.


----------



## moXJO

Just went through there minting method on luna.
Prediction is Toast.
Out of luck on this one.
Too lazy to sell.


----------



## waterbottle

NASDAQ rebounds, ASX rebound, Crypto rebound, 10year bonds sub 3%.... Either this is a dead cat bounce or we're finding bottom


----------



## moXJO

What a headache of a day. Forgot how crazy crypto markets can be. I'm all out of positions again except for a small luna position. I had some money left in a kucoin account I found (only place I could buy luna as it's de-listed everywhere). Too lazy to sell it as it's a bugger all position.

It was down 20% from when I bought it and is now back to 5% above what I bought it.
Which is weird considering how the minting method works. But pretty confident its a death spiral.
Funnily enough my current position was probably worth $200,000,000 a couple weeks back

Trading since early morning and now for a nap before US. Some good trades about. But my eyes are fried.


----------



## over9k

waterbottle said:


> NASDAQ rebounds, ASX rebound, Crypto rebound, 10year bonds sub 3%.... Either this is a dead cat bounce or we're finding bottom



Yeah, we might be there for a bit but wait until winter in the northern hemisphere. 

Still a bull on energy


----------



## waterbottle

Asus: Demand For GPUs Among Cryptocurrency Miners Is Drying Up
					

However, Asus expects demand for GPUs from gamers to remain robust, so the pricing may not necessarily normalize.




					www.pcmag.com
				




This must also feed into the chip supply problems that the world has had since the WFH revolution began with COVID, and I suspect we'll see an impact on inflation numbers too


----------



## moXJO

Position in luna has now doubled. Not sure why given its supposed to hyperinflate the market cap. Only explanation is that it was delisted off exchanges and people couldn't trade it as easily. 
Or perhaps the team is burning tokens.
Still not worth doing anything as it's a small position.

More interested in the mechanisms behind this thing at this point.


----------



## Stockbailx

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has finally broken below $30,000. 
As a result of sharply higher inflation and interest rates, the great unregulated crypto-currency "Ponzi scheme" has finally started to unravel. In concert with its highly correlated listed equities masters, Bitcoin has plummeted 63% from a peak of US$68,991 in late 2021 to a low of just US$25,424 this week. At this nadir, Bitcoin's market capitalisation had shrunk by US$800 billion, prompting some investors to start referring to it as simply "Bitcoin". In this wire, I explain why crypto-currencies have proven to have little value beyond the "hopium" that investors can convince others to impute a higher price to them.

 If you are afraid about owning/buying Bitcoin at this time, I suggest you wait until the bottom is more clearly in. Even when Bitcoin bottoms, history suggests it won't explode to the upside just yet.


----------



## moXJO

Luna has x4 now


----------



## Tyre Kicker

A lot of decimal places in that Luna price now.


----------



## moXJO

Tyre Kicker said:


> A lot of decimal places in that Luna price now.



It should in theory keep adding zeros and hyperinflate the cap.

I think the team has some kind of recovery plan going forward.
 A lot of people are jumping in without realising how it auto inflates.

So I'm not sure if any increase is going to hold long without burning the billions or trillions that were minted. We are talking 75-95% burn.


----------



## over9k

Oh dear


----------



## againsthegrain

We understand this has been a turbulent time for our customers and appreciate the patience as we reviewed the ability of trading both Terra (LUNA) & TerraUSD (UST) on the Swyftx platform.

Service Announcement
After assessing the current state of the Terra Ecosystem, Swyftx does not believe either asset meets our listing criteria at this time


----------



## over9k

The question is whether the contagion wrecks the whole crypto space. Crypto depends on confidence and this has been a hell of a blow to that. 

It might very well be the catalyst that sets the whole meltdown off. Lots of people very nervous at the moment.


----------



## over9k

THIS. If crypto gets a crisis of confidence, it's all, the entire sector/asset class/whatever you want to call it, f***ed.


----------



## Telamelo

I'm tempted to consider buying Bitcoin & Ethereum again (luckily I'd sold out a while ago when prices 50% higher than currently).

Feel that more downside pain to come perhaps but don't want to miss out on a potential 20-30% sharp rebound (if and when it eventuates?).

Perhaps only when US market's stabilise somewhat we may then see crypto's follow likewise..





__





						Bitcoin Ticker - Tick by tick - Real time updates
					





					bitcointicker.co
				




P.S. Interested in people's thoughts/technical analysis of Bitcoin price action...


----------



## basilio

*     Mate who owns Bitcoin reckons he’ll be able to retire* *by age of 85        * 



A friend who got into crypto a few months back reckons he’ll be able to quit his dayjob and retire before he’s 100, maybe later.

Reece Robertson, 28, took out a loan to buy $20k worth of Bitcoin in November after listening to a podcast which promised crypto would totally change the way he thinks about wealth creation. “And it totally has. I’ve never lost so much so quickly before. Who would’ve thought turning real money into imaginary coins could go wrong?”                                                                               

Robertson said he researched a lot before getting into the market. “I watched this video called ‘How crypto can massively transform your retirement plans’ and it’s totally true. I planned to retire by 60, but now that I’m into crypto, that number’s out by at least 25 years”.

He said he had taken a diversified investment strategy. “I’m not an idiot – I’m not just invested in Bitcoin. I’ve put $10k into Ethereum and another $5k into Dogecoin cos Elon Musk told me too. So I’ve played it pretty safe”.








						Mate who owns Bitcoin reckons he’ll be able to retire by age 85
					

"It's totally changed the way I think about wealth creation"




					www.theshovel.com.au


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Telamelo said:


> I'm tempted to consider buying Bitcoin & Ethereum again (luckily I'd sold out a while ago when prices 50% higher than currently).
> 
> Feel that more downside pain to come perhaps but don't want to miss out on a potential 20-30% sharp rebound (if and when it eventuates?).
> 
> Perhaps only when US market's stabilise somewhat we may then see crypto's follow likewise..
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bitcoin Ticker - Tick by tick - Real time updates
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> bitcointicker.co
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> P.S. Interested in people's thoughts/technical analysis of Bitcoin price action...



I've been following BTC and ETH. 

It is still in an impressive downtrend and with one of the coins, Luna, going to 0c there is the chance of contagion in to other crypto. 

TA would say stay away, except, if you are brave, I have noticed a time around 9.30 pm ET which is pizza/munchie time in the Bagel, where many big moves occur. I lived in NY many, many years ago and can attest to the importance of that time. So look closely at the charts if you are brave around that time for a trade. 

Otherwise, as they say in Ukraine, it is Xуй -ed. 

gg


----------



## waterbottle

$2 trillion lost since Nov '21, with $1 trillion lost in the last month.
That money needs to find a home....


----------



## basilio

waterbottle said:


> View attachment 141731
> 
> 
> $2 trillion lost since Nov '21, with $1 trillion lost in the last month.
> That money needs to find a home....



$2 trillion lost since Nov '21, with $1 trillion lost in the last month.
That money needs to find a home....  ???

Really ?  Since when did the  2 trillion actually exist beyond figures on a screen?

Punters/investors  had valuations on their holdings on one day and two months later these valuations have evaporated.
There is minimal underlying physical assets in these digital currencies. No factories, products. Some financials services but these are quite expensive to use.

I suggest that money has evaporated into thin air. 

And of course the dollar currency that purchased the coins (con .)  in the first place

*What hasn't disappeared is any borrowings used to purchase the coins.*

So that $2Trillion dollars has so far disappeared. No doubt some traders have made a bundle on the way


----------



## basilio

I checked out a table on the status of the top 200 cryptocurrencies . Makes ugly viewng. Around 20-30% drop in the past seven days.









						All Cryptocurrencies | CoinMarketCap
					

View the full list of all active cryptocurrencies.




					coinmarketcap.com


----------



## over9k

basilio said:


> I checked out a table on the status of the top 200 cryptocurrencies . Makes ugly viewng. Around 20-30% drop in the past seven days.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> All Cryptocurrencies | CoinMarketCap
> 
> 
> View the full list of all active cryptocurrencies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> coinmarketcap.com



Hence my contagion comments


----------



## againsthegrain

Its probably time for a new scam, get rich scheme,  Investment I mean.


----------



## over9k

againsthegrain said:


> Its probably time for a new scam, get rich scheme,  Investment I mean.



Have you heard about these new things called "NFT's"?


----------



## over9k

Some VERY cautious optimism here, we still have a long way to go.


----------



## waterbottle

basilio said:


> $2 trillion lost since Nov '21, with $1 trillion lost in the last month.
> That money needs to find a home....  ???
> 
> Really ?  Since when did the  2 trillion actually exist beyond figures on a screen?
> 
> Punters/investors  had valuations on their holdings on one day and two months later these valuations have evaporated.
> There is minimal underlying physical assets in these digital currencies. No factories, products. Some financials services but these are quite expensive to use.
> 
> I suggest that money has evaporated into thin air.
> 
> And of course the dollar currency that purchased the coins (con .)  in the first place
> 
> *What hasn't disappeared is any borrowings used to purchase the coins.*
> 
> So that $2Trillion dollars has so far disappeared. No doubt some traders have made a bundle on the way




I assumed there's someone on the other side of the crypto trade. Otherwise it's been quantitative tightening, Crypto style


----------



## JohnDe

Warnings that crypto could drop a lot lower -



> *The tide is going out. Who will be found swimming naked?*
> 
> “After all, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.”
> 
> The words of Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha written in his annual letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway in February 2002 could not be more fitting today.
> 
> Back then the horror and market recoil at the 9/11 terrorist attack on America just months before wiped $US1.4 trillion ($2.02 trillion) off the stock market. It was a body blow for the airline industry and the insurance sector.
> 
> Today’s steadily retreating tide is powered by something different: a broad scale reset as stimulus comes out of the system. And at the same time the system has new risks embedded in it – war, supply chain and inflation uncertainty.
> 
> This is a reset that has either already or will effect bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, NFTs, the buy now, pay later sector, growth stocks with no line of sight to profit and at least the fringes of the mortgage market.
> 
> Forget the criminal minds operating across some of these unregulated markets. It is the products themselves that have been unleashed on ordinary Australians that look fallible. Finger pointing has begun with regulators in the crosshairs.
> 
> Last week’s disastrous unravelling of TerraUSD shows just how dangerous it is to be exposed to the volatility of crypto as the tide runs out.
> 
> TerraUSD is a stablecoin which is used to trade in cryptocurrency markets and was supposedly pegged to the US dollar.
> 
> TerraUSD fell because its foundation – the algorithm that underpinned it and pegged it to the dollar to make it stable – was unstable. A series of major withdrawals pushed the price down to US69c which caused the peg to break.
> 
> Bitcoin has dropped over 50 per cent since its November high and over 20 per cent in the last ten days. If you bought bitcoin for Christmas that is a sadness.
> 
> Enthusiasts, including very clever people have argued that central bank Covid-19 stimulus around the world would destroy the credibility of cash as a store of value. Money printing would destroy the value of cash.
> 
> Bitcoin with a cap on the number of coins that could ever be mined would replace cash as the new store of value. And it would have more integrity than gold.
> 
> Yet as the monetary cycle tightens again, we see that cash remains the preferred store of value and bitcoin’s volatility (which to be fair the enthusiasts acknowledge) now dominates the investment profile.
> 
> Meanwhile the gold price, something people do understand, is up 1.4 per cent (in US dollars) and 6.1 per cent (in Australian dollars) this year.
> 
> More disturbing is the systemic risk from the intertwined world of bitcoin and decentralised finance – or DeFi – now emerging. Part of the reason for the bitcoin fall was that the folk behind TerraUSD sold their bitcoin reserves in order to prop up the stablecoin.
> 
> Cryptocurrencies are still not economically significant but they have exposed the unsuspecting punter to huge risk and they are unregulated.
> 
> At a US senate banking committee hearing last Tuesday, Treasury secretary Janet Yellen called for regulation, noting that the TerraUSD collapse in value “simply illustrates that this is a rapidly growing product and that there are risks to financial stability … they present the same kind of risks that we have known for centuries in connection with bank runs”.
> 
> Earlier this month the Wall Street Journal reported that the NFT market was collapsing.
> 
> Non-fungible tokens – from Bored Apes to fine art – are effectively a certificate of ownership that sits on the blockchain and lives in the digital world.
> 
> Daily NFT sales have fallen from a high of 225,000 in September to 23,000 last week, according to data website NonFungible.
> 
> The day of reckoning for buy now, pay later sector which also took off through the pandemic stimulus cannot be far off.
> 
> Last week Australian consumer groups and charities sent an open letter to the incoming federal government imploring it to regulate the sector.
> 
> The lobbying power in Canberra of the founders of Afterpay, which pioneered BNPL in Australia, has caused even the best in the game of politics to blush with admiration.
> 
> The standard pitch from BNPL firms is that they are responsible, they are across the credit risk of their customers and they don’t let customers borrow more if they can’t repay. This is utterly disingenuous.
> 
> The fact remains that if you are bank lending to a new borrower, you have no visibility on what could be six or ten different BNPL debts that that person might have.
> 
> Both sides of politics are still hiding behind a fig leaf in the BNPL debate – the need to let innovation run free rather than put it under the Credit Act. It is a fig leaf that the Reserve Bank as regulator is also hiding behind. How much misery at the most vulnerable end of society is it going to take before this position is reversed?
> 
> TICKY FULLERTON
> EDITOR-AT-LARGE, THE AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS REVIEW


----------



## Stockbailx

There's a lot of sediment about crypto falling even lower. Early days but as a optimist I chance the fact that BTC is rebounding higher as I speak, retracing back above the 30000 mark. Could be a different week for BTC as rebounding momentum seems to be changing in favor of the bull market...


----------



## CityIndex

While the break above $30k is definitely a positive bullish sign, the lack of volume on the move does call into question whether BTC can actually sustain a leg higher this week. 

All trading carries risk, and direction could ultimately come down to overall risk sentiment. Should be interesting to watch either way.


----------



## Stockbailx

I had to change my position on BTC after my early morning sentiment, that BTC was to climb today and the rest of the week. True form shows BTC decline further bringing aggression to the argument that crypto will fall further this week. There seems to be a strong hold on that fact looking at the charts...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Stockybailz said:


> I had to change my position on BTC after my early morning sentiment, that BTC was to climb today and the rest of the week. True form shows BTC decline further bringing aggression to the argument that crypto will fall further this week. There seems to be a strong hold on that fact looking at the charts...
> 
> View attachment 141751



Unfortunately for Cryptons I believe you are correct. 

I see much pump and dump on the minutely from Kitco. 

A good flush out, and I mean a really good one, would be good for Crypto. 

I'd be a buyer for ETH around $400 or less. I wouldn't touch any others including BTC with a barge pole. 

gg


----------



## over9k

We were actually on the climbout until all the bad china data was released at the exact moment of truth. Futures all flipped on the news too.


----------



## Trader X

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I see much pump and dump on the minutely from Kitco.



So true.  Sad to see Kitco, an excellent metals and mining focused news site, allow their interviewers to effectively become promotional shills for crypto, especially Bitcoin.  They now give crypto evangelists more coverage on their YT channel than ever who try and convince their audience that Bitcoin is dematerialized gold. The Terra debacle seems to have put a damper on their enthusiasm to interview Bitcoin bulls for the moment.


----------



## moXJO

Trader X said:


> So true.  Sad to see Kitco, an excellent metals and mining focused news site, allow their interviewers to effectively become promotional shills for crypto, especially Bitcoin.  They now give crypto evangelists more coverage on their YT channel than ever who try and convince their audience that Bitcoin is dematerialized gold. The Terra debacle seems to have put a damper on their enthusiasm to interview Bitcoin bulls for the moment.



Crypto on kitco?
Sacrilege


----------



## Trader X

Stablecoins were supposed to be 'stable.' Then the crash came​Sad as some of these stories are, the faith so many had in this "algorithmic stablecoin_"  _just beggars belief.  Did these people who bet most or all of their life savings on the Terra protocol have any understanding of the risks involved?  If the Terra crash was actually a coordinated attack, what other cryptos are vulnerable?  One quote from this article stands out "If people don't have faith in stablecoins, what can they have faith in in crypto?"  Faith being the operative term that sustains the whole crypto ecosystem.


----------



## JohnDe

_"The crypto slump has been brutal. In November the total market value of cryptocurrencies was almost $3trn. That fell to $2trn by mid-April before plunging by another 35% to just $1.3trn now. 

Investors are now doing what they are supposed to: penalising instruments that are fundamentally flawed or issued by organisations that are badly run."_



> *The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked*
> _And investors are beginning to discriminate_
> 
> Financial aphorisms are trotted out by investors in every financial cycle. Think of “Buy the rumour, sell the fact”, or “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”. These sayings have staying power because they often ring true. Today, after a two-year boom, cryptocurrency assets are collapsing in value, and the aphorism that captures the moment is “When the tide goes out, you find out who is swimming naked”.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The crypto slump has been brutal. In November the total market value of cryptocurrencies was almost $3trn. That fell to $2trn by mid-April before plunging by another 35% to just $1.3trn now. Bitcoin has briefly dipped below $29,000, its lowest since late 2020. Crypto’s detractors have long maligned it as useless—unless you are a money-launderer or con-artist—and predicted its demise. The rout raises the question of whether they are right. In fact the picture is rather different: a process of sorting is taking place as the dodgiest parts of the crypto world are exposed, while other parts prove more resilient (see Finance & economics section).
> 
> The crypto collapse is part of a broader slump. Red-hot inflation is forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy, triggering a huge sell-off in riskier or long-dated assets such as tech stocks and 30-year bonds. The tech-heavy nasdaq index is down by 29% from its high, whereas the s&p 500 index has shed “just” 18%.
> 
> Top of the list of speculative assets receiving a drubbing is crypto. The sell-off has exposed glaring weaknesses. Consider terra, an “algorithmic” stablecoin, whose value is backed by another asset, supposedly making it dependable. On paper users could redeem $1 of terra for $1 worth of another cryptocurrency, luna, which would be issued to meet demand. But luna’s price began to slide in early May, putting two-to-four times pressure on the terra peg. There was a rush to redeem. As luna’s supply ballooned, its price collapsed. On May 10th 350m luna tokens existed; now 6.5trn do. At its peak, luna was worth $40bn and supported $18bn of terra. Now it is worthless, and terra is trading at 10 cents. In hindsight the scheme looks mad.
> 
> At the other end of the spectrum is usdc, a stablecoin backed by cash and short-dated Treasury bills which publishes audited financial statements each month. It has done fine. So has dai, another stablecoin that is backed by crypto and run by algorithms. It has a decent degree of transparency and holds at least 1.5 times as much backing as it needs. The supply of the cryptocurrencies it relies on—usdc and ether—is independently controlled.
> 
> In the middle of these two extremes is tether, the biggest stablecoin, which briefly dipped below its par value of $1 per token on May 12th. It says it is backed by assets like cash, Treasuries and corporate debt, but its disclosure is awful. Tether refuses to reveal the precise asset mix, claiming this is its “secret sauce”. It had previously been fined by New York’s attorney-general for misleading investors. As the broader market sell-off in the past weeks has intensified, its holders have rightly grown nervous. Since it slipped from its peg, tether holders have redeemed about $9bn-worth of tokens, some 10% of the total.
> 
> Investors are now doing what they are supposed to: penalising instruments that are fundamentally flawed or issued by organisations that are badly run. Yet the sell-off has sparked renewed calls for the government to step in. Consumers are in danger of being ripped off. And volatility could yet spill over into the conventional financial system. For example, tether is a key part of the crypto-plumbing and the most liquid base currency for trading between other crypto assets, and between crypto and conventional ones. If it failed the fallout would be bigger.
> 
> Some critics would like the crypto system banned; others would like it heavily regulated, just as banks are; still others want regulation but fear that this might be interpreted as an official endorsement. The trouble is that a draconian crackdown would put at risk the benefits that crypto eventually promises, including new financial products that bypass stodgy banks; innovations in property rights; and the possibility of a less centralised financial system.
> 
> So what should governments do? The best path would be to accelerate the process of sorting that is under way. Key to this is more reliable information so that retail users and institutions can guard more effectively against fraud. In particular, stablecoins should be forced to disclose their backing—what the assets are, where they are held and who controls them. Some crypto ventures based outside America are beyond easy reach of its regulators, but Uncle Sam could require the big crypto exchanges in America, which are already regulated, to flag which tokens have met disclosure standards. The aphorism that springs to mind is helping the market sort the wheat from the chaff.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked
> 
> 
> And investors are beginning to discriminate
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.economist.com


----------



## CityIndex

JohnDe said:


> Investors are now doing what they are supposed to: penalising instruments that are fundamentally flawed or issued by organisations that are badly run."




This is an interesting point, especially following the collapse of Terra.

We've seen Bitcoin essentially trade as a high-beta version of US tech, so direction should likely continue to be driven by overall sentiment. However, it will be interesting to see if BTC also gets additional support in the near-term on traders rotating out of alt-coins and into more established names, or if this potentially leads to broad selling across all crypto assets.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Trader X said:


> So true.  Sad to see Kitco, an excellent metals and mining focused news site, allow their interviewers to effectively become promotional shills for crypto, especially Bitcoin.  They now give crypto evangelists more coverage on their YT channel than ever who try and convince their audience that Bitcoin is dematerialized gold. The Terra debacle seems to have put a damper on their enthusiasm to interview Bitcoin bulls for the moment.



I find that with my interest in Gold it is very useful to know what BTC is up to, or down to as the case may be. 

gg


----------



## over9k

CityIndex said:


> This is an interesting point, especially following the collapse of Terra.
> 
> We've seen Bitcoin essentially trade as a high-beta version of US tech, so direction should likely continue to be driven by overall sentiment. However, it will be interesting to see if BTC also gets additional support in the near-term on traders rotating out of alt-coins and into more established names, or if this potentially leads to broad selling across all crypto assets.



Interestingly, yesterday when the whole market was getting massacred, bonds, gold, and crypto actually did ok. Perhaps investors simply fleeing and putting their money *anywhere* else other than the usual stocks & etf's? 

But yes, I showed a few pages back how crypto was almost perfectly matching double inverse NDX, so SQQQ becomes your downside protection.


----------



## CityIndex

over9k said:


> Interestingly, yesterday when the whole market was getting massacred, bonds, gold, and crypto actually did ok. Perhaps investors simply fleeing and putting their money *anywhere* else other than the usual stocks & etf's?
> 
> But yes, I showed a few pages back how crypto was almost perfectly matching double inverse NDX, so SQQQ becomes your downside protection.




Last night's correlation breakdown may have stemmed from a weaker US Dollar as yields eased. However, you could also be right, and this could help explain why Bitcoin managed to break above $30k on slightly higher volume while stocks pushed lower. 

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to watch how this develops heading into the weekend.


----------



## over9k

CityIndex said:


> Last night's correlation breakdown may have stemmed from a weaker US Dollar as yields eased. However, you could also be right, and this could help explain why Bitcoin managed to break above $30k on slightly higher volume while stocks pushed lower.
> 
> All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to watch how this develops heading into the weekend.



Yeah, I'm left with a bit of a WTF over the last day and into now - crypto's kind of gone nowhere, neither up nor down. You usually see it moving in tandem with NDX futures almost perfectly (no need to post a graph plotting it) and instead yesterday was an almost 5% drop with ETH flat and today we now have futures deep into the green with ETH/BTC pretty much flat again. So no response either way.

With that being said, one day means nothing and we need to see some kind of movement in *some* direction before we can start speculating on the next trajectory.

Edit: And not 10 mins after I make this post, NDX futures soar and so does ETH, so maybe we're back on the risk/speccy play bandwagon.


----------



## wayneL

Interesting discussion.... Hmmm


----------



## noirua

20 May 2022


----------



## mullokintyre

Christine Lagarde has more Chutzpah than Donald trump.
In the article from Zero Hedge she argues that 


> European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has taken aim at cryptocurrencies, arguing in an interview on Dutch television that* they’re essentially “worth nothing” as they lack underlying assets “as an anchor to safety” while calling for them to be regulated.*



Someone who controls a CB that peddles fiat currencies of various sorts with no assets  to back them up is hardly in a position to lecture others who do the same.
Mick


----------



## wayneL

mullokintyre said:


> Christine Lagarde has more Chutzpah than Donald trump.
> In the article from Zero Hedge she argues that
> 
> Someone who controls a CB that peddles fiat currencies of various sorts with no assets  to back them up is hardly in a position to lecture others who do the same.
> Mick



It's a delicious irony indeed. Unfortunately 90% of people fail to see it.


----------



## Trader X

mullokintyre said:


> Christine Lagarde has more Chutzpah than Donald trump.



Let's focus on the merits and context of Lagarde's comments...


> _*“I have said all along the crypto assets are highly speculative, very risky assets,”*_



_Just echoing the obvious (or should be), trading in crypto is pure speculation_



> _*“My very humble assessment is that it is worth nothing. It is based on nothing, there is no underlying assets to act as an anchor of safety.”*_



_Crypto has a price so has "worth" in that context, the rest is again echoing the obvious._



> _*“She added that she’s worried about people speculating on cryptocurrencies with their life savings as they may not be aware of the risk.”*_



_To be fair, only investors with a professional mindset properly assess risk. However, accurately assessing the risk of placing bets on crypto would be next to impossible.  Crypto speculators focus their laser eyes on getting rich at the crypto casino where they believe with religious fervor the odds are in their favor.  I favor crypto speculators having the freedom of choice to bet their life savings on crypto if they wish but with no recourse to socialize the cost of their loses._



> _*“Lagarde said she’s concerned about those “who have no understanding of the risks, who will lose it all and who will be terribly disappointed, which is why I believe that that should be regulated.”*_



_Since legal gambling is regulated activity this is probably a valid point.  However, this salvo is setting the stage for the introduction of CBDC by an influential CB official.  The intention of such "regulation" is to stifle competing decentralized crypto.  You don't need to ban crypto, just strangle it with regulations._

The are of course "fiat currencies of various sorts with no assets to back them up" but unlike crypto, nation states have taxation powers and also vast government held or controlled property assets.  As Kissinger famously said...

*“Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world.”*

The central banks control the money and are unlikely to cede that control to Bitcoin or any other decentralized crypto project.


----------



## StockyGuy

wayneL said:


> It's a delicious irony indeed. Unfortunately 90% of people fail to see it.



I kinda fail to see it.  Don't get me wrong, the comparison between fiat currency and crypto is rhetorically cool - a thought-provoking pot calling kettle black allegation.  But clearly it's a bit of a false equivalence - a currency like the euro, even unbacked by gold, is empowered and validated and guarded (no Christine pun intended) in so many ways that a crypto is not.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I do wish these Bitcoin billionaires would stop propping up BTC and let the casino lose, get the teams in for a deep clean and let it start all over again. 

It reminds me of that Australian trope. " Me call him a bastard ? I never called him a bastard, the bastard".  

The price of BTC is a Norwegian Blue hanging in dear death glued to it's perch, A Dead Parrot. 




gg


----------



## mullokintyre

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I do wish these Bitcoin billionaires would stop propping up BTC and let the casino lose, get the teams in for a deep clean and let it start all over again.
> 
> It reminds me of that Australian trope. " Me call him a bastard ? I never called him a bastard, the bastard".
> 
> The price of BTC is a Norwegian Blue hanging in dear death glued to it's perch, A Dead Parrot.
> 
> 
> gg



Why hold back GG, tell us what you really think!
Mick


----------



## Trader X

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I do wish these Bitcoin billionaires would stop propping up BTC and let the casino lose, get the teams in for a deep clean and let it start all over again.



Well gg, imagine you're one of the BTC whales, the manipulation ended and you had watch your billions evaporate into the digital ether. Better to plan for this using a periodic pump and dump strategy to progressively downsize your position.  The faithful "strong hand" hodlers will of course hang on to the bitter end and that's what the whales are counting on.  Most BTC billionaires will remain billionaires in the aftermath holding that hated fiat instead and moving it into other assets.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

For a store of value that is said to be run efficiently on technical analysis by many, this descending triangle is quite a good setup. 

Usually it moves either up or down with the major volume/price moves within the triangle. 

I'm calling a move down to the $25000 level.





gg


----------



## CityIndex

The pattern is visible on the daily chart as well, and with BTC oscillating around the key $30k level for the past two weeks, it may also be indicative of an accumulation.

All trading carries risk, but should be interesting to see which side of the triangle it ultimately breaks.


----------



## Stockbailx

I've got the same analogy on  BTCUSD as price remains fixed in a pennant consolidation pattern.

With the Medium-term trend and possibly the longer-term trend lower, you could lean toward this being a potential continuation pattern, I defiantly think it’s essential to wait for a clear breakout before thinking about picking a direction.

European session, selling pressure has ramped up, and we see some solid selling across crypto boards. BTC is now 1.76% lower after trading in the positive earlier in the day.

Short-term support is seen at 29,000. If you’re looking for a lower breakout and continuation, a break of this level is a step in the right direction. ETHUSD also had the same pattern, but sellers look to be on the way to confirming a new lower breakout.


----------



## Greynomad99

i don't follow Bitcoin because, like BNPL, I've always felt it was likely to eventually go the way of the Unicorns (or become mainstream at a much more realistic value). With news of the falling prices I dragged up a chart of Bitcoin only to see a fairly well defined Elliott Wave pattern which might suggest a bottom around $21K - on the basis EW says most tradeable commodities lose 75% of their gains in each cycle. It's not a 'will happen' sort of theory only a 'more often than not' predictive tool.


----------



## over9k

Bitcoin is the most resilient of the crypto's. Last night's moves were not unique to last night.


----------



## Trader X

Bitcoin, Ethereum in Critical Condition​_"The crypto market sentiment went into “extreme fear” again after Bitcoin and Ethereum lost price support over the past 24 hours. On-chain data shows increasing selling pressure, which could lead to more significant losses."

"On-chain data reveals that whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have offloaded or redistributed more than 30,000 BTC, worth roughly $870 million, over the past 24 hours."_

Looks like the whales are starting to bail into this weakness. Will be interesting to see how BTC holds up under the selling pressure with the alt coins continuing to sell down aggressively over the week.


----------



## over9k

Yeah it's the altcoins that are really getting hammered though.


----------



## greggles

It's interesting that the NASDAQ rebounded 3.33% last night but the Bitcoin price declined. It seems that heavier issues are weighing on crypto at the moment. In the wake of the LUNA collapse, there is continuing speculation of government regulation of the crypto space. 

The shine has definitely rubbed off crypto for now.


----------



## noirua

5 reasons why Bitcoin could be a better long-term investment than gold
					

Crypto advocates often refer to Bitcoin as “digital gold,” but how does BTC stack up against gold as a long-term investment?




					cointelegraph.com
				



Crypto advocates often refer to Bitcoin as “digital gold,” but how does BTC stack up against gold as a long-term investment?


----------



## DB008

View attachment 01 Saylor BTC.mp4





.​


----------



## Trader X

Bitcoin's "near-term volatility" will become quite relevant if MicroStrategy faces a margin call on it's highly leveraged Bitcoin position.  Literally betting the house on one asset.  If BTC did fall to $20k by year end that would mean MicroStrategy's 129,218 Bitcoins would be down over $1.3 Billion at the average purchase price of $30,700!  A very "relevant" mark-to-market loss position.  Saylor's hubris may yet be his downfall.

Microstrategy’s looming margin call​_" Chief financial officer Phong Le told investors last week that bitcoin sinking below $21,000 would trigger a margin call on that loan, though he stressed that Microstrategy could always funnel more bitcoin into the collateral package. That may be a way off yet, but Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, expects bitcoin to drop below $20,000 by the end of the year as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet."_


----------



## noirua

$30K BTC price has ‘severe impact’ on Bitcoin miner profits — analysis
					

Can higher BTC prices save Bitcoin miners from a profit crisis?




					cointelegraph.com
				





> “If depreciation and amortization charges are included then the cost basis for mining bitcoin is at around $30K, basically at the same level as current bitcoin price.”


----------



## noirua

NASDAQ: RIOT - US$5.47 - M/C US$694m
NASDAQ: MARA - $7.66 - M/C $814m
NASDAQ: ARBK - $6.02 - M/C $225m​Bitcoin miners are down 85% to 93% from their high points.  Many are forced to cut electricity usage in particular Texas due to high temperatures in the states. Profits on mining are sharply down.​


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin miners say NY ban will be ineffective and ‘isolate’ the state
					

Bitcoin miners say the prospect of New York state banning mining for two years would see an exodus to other states. Many states welcome mining as an opportunity to increase tax revenue.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Similarly, the CEO of Sweden-based White Rock Management digital asset miner Andy Long also feels that Bitcoin mining is “moving in the right direction toward fossil-free energy use,” as he stated in emailed comments to Cointelegraph.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

noirua said:


> $30K BTC price has ‘severe impact’ on Bitcoin miner profits — analysis
> 
> 
> Can higher BTC prices save Bitcoin miners from a profit crisis?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cointelegraph.com



Thanks for that @noirua .

Silly me, the price of electricity hadn't entered my head in relation to BTC price. I just saw it as a a trading vehicle similar to a Casino-at-home asset. 

I do like the concept of blockchain, particularly ETH. It will hit outfits like ID8 and CBA if it survives and grows.

gg


----------



## over9k

*Shakeout: *During this stage of the cycle, growth rate delines and firms begin to compete directly with one another for market share, rather than capturing a share of an increasing pie. Weaker firms are forced out of the industry. Profit erodes and only the strongest and most efficient firms survive as increasing rivalry in the industry as firms begin to cut prices and offer more services to gain more market share. The importance of process innovation increases while the importance of product innovation declines.


----------



## Trader X

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm calling a move down to the $25000 level.



Looking like a good call GG.  BTC has broken down over the weekend, looks like $30k support was just a pause in the downtrend.  From a technical standpoint, hard to suggest where support will kick in from here.


----------



## bluekelah

Trader X said:


> Bitcoin's "near-term volatility" will become quite relevant if MicroStrategy faces a margin call on it's highly leveraged Bitcoin position.  Literally betting the house on one asset.  If BTC did fall to $20k by year end that would mean MicroStrategy's 129,218 Bitcoins would be down over $1.3 Billion at the average purchase price of $30,700!  A very "relevant" mark-to-market loss position.  Saylor's hubris may yet be his downfall.
> 
> Microstrategy’s looming margin call​_" Chief financial officer Phong Le told investors last week that bitcoin sinking below $21,000 would trigger a margin call on that loan, though he stressed that Microstrategy could always funnel more bitcoin into the collateral package. That may be a way off yet, but Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, expects bitcoin to drop below $20,000 by the end of the year as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet."_



Together with Cathie Woods , they are all charlatans having fun with OPM(other peoples money), modern day Bernie Madoffs. 

If FED does the unthinkable hike to 3% rates and the system freezes up, its gonna be very interesting to see what happens.


----------



## Trader X

bluekelah said:


> Together with Cathie Woods , they are all charlatans having fun with OPM(other peoples money), modern day Bernie Madoffs.
> 
> If FED does the unthinkable hike to 3% rates and the system freezes up, its gonna be very interesting to see what ha



I tend to regard the Cathie Woods and Michael Saylor types as modern day pied pipers that come to prominence while the trends they promote and exploit are on a roll.  Charismatic people who attract followers using clever turn of phrase, grandiose metaphors and overly optimistic predictions to convince people to invest in what they're promoting.  When the music stops they will still be multi-millionaires while those who followed their advice will be left holding the pixie dust they were peddling.  As the crypto speculative tide recedes, the hubris and egos of those who boldly claimed dematerialized, decentralized digital ledger entries were digital gold and the road to riches will be humbled.


----------



## noirua




----------



## sptrawler

Sounds as though there is trouble afoot, or crypto is following the wobbling share market.








						Cryptocurrencies tumble as lending platform Celsius blocks withdrawals
					

US-based Celsius, which had issued a statement less than a week ago lashing critics and declaring “full speed ahead”, has changed its tune.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:
Leading cryptocurrencies bitcoin and ether have dived after a cryptocurrency lending company that had promised huge returns to punters abruptly froze withdrawals, citing market volatility.

In a statement posted online on Monday, US-based Celsius has told its 1.8 million customers that it was immediately suspending withdrawals, swaps and transfers between accounts because of “extreme market conditions”.
“We are taking this necessary action for the benefit of our entire community in order to stabilise liquidity and operations while we take steps to preserve and protect assets,” reads the statement from Celsius, which was valued at $US3.25 billion ($4.6 billion) in a capital raise late last year.
It said it had "valuable assets", was working to meet commitments, and customers would continue to accrue "awards" during the freeze.

Celsius’ move echoes the recent collapse of another cryptocurrency project known as Terra/Luna. While the two differ in many respects, they are similar in that many people bought into Terra/Luna because they could access interest rates of 20 per cent. Celsius offers up to 18 per cent annualised interest for deposits of some tokens and time periods on its platform.
Even as it froze withdrawals, Celsius was still promising users elsewhere on its site that they could "swap or withdraw your crypto at any time, with no fees" and that they were "safe forever".


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

sptrawler said:


> Sounds as though there is trouble afoot, or crypto is following the wobbling share market.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cryptocurrencies tumble as lending platform Celsius blocks withdrawals
> 
> 
> US-based Celsius, which had issued a statement less than a week ago lashing critics and declaring “full speed ahead”, has changed its tune.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.smh.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From the article:
> Leading cryptocurrencies bitcoin and ether have dived after a cryptocurrency lending company that had promised huge returns to punters abruptly froze withdrawals, citing market volatility.
> 
> In a statement posted online on Monday, US-based Celsius has told its 1.8 million customers that it was immediately suspending withdrawals, swaps and transfers between accounts because of “extreme market conditions”.
> “We are taking this necessary action for the benefit of our entire community in order to stabilise liquidity and operations while we take steps to preserve and protect assets,” reads the statement from Celsius, which was valued at $US3.25 billion ($4.6 billion) in a capital raise late last year.
> It said it had "valuable assets", was working to meet commitments, and customers would continue to accrue "awards" during the freeze.
> 
> Celsius’ move echoes the recent collapse of another cryptocurrency project known as Terra/Luna. While the two differ in many respects, they are similar in that many people bought into Terra/Luna because they could access interest rates of 20 per cent. Celsius offers up to 18 per cent annualised interest for deposits of some tokens and time periods on its platform.
> Even as it froze withdrawals, Celsius was still promising users elsewhere on its site that they could "swap or withdraw your crypto at any time, with no fees" and that they were "safe forever".



I would say there are many nervous holders of Bitcoin and other crypto as we head in to evening and the US in to morning. 

The crash of BTC would remove some of the "quantative easing" i.e. printed money from the system and in to metals, oil, commodities and the general market. 

This in fact may be good for the markets, and for working families with a well managed mortgage, although crime and the price of illicit drugs may skyrocket, and housing will still be hanging like a shag on a rock waiting to be knocked down.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

> sptrawler said:
> 
> 
> 
> a cryptocurrency lending company that had* promised huge returns* to punters abruptly froze withdrawals.
Click to expand...



Where have I heard that before ?


----------



## greggles

Bitcoin (and other cryptos) getting absolutely smashed at the moment. Short term I see the carnage continuing given that US futures are very deep in the red. I don't see any reason why Bitcoin won't get back to around $20,000 with support kicking in around its December 2017 peak.

Fortunes are being lost by those HODLing.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

sptrawler said:


> Sounds as though there is trouble afoot, or crypto is following the wobbling share market.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cryptocurrencies tumble as lending platform Celsius blocks withdrawals
> 
> 
> US-based Celsius, which had issued a statement less than a week ago lashing critics and declaring “full speed ahead”, has changed its tune.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.smh.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From the article:
> Leading cryptocurrencies bitcoin and ether have dived after a cryptocurrency lending company that had promised huge returns to punters abruptly froze withdrawals, citing market volatility.
> 
> In a statement posted online on Monday, US-based Celsius has told its 1.8 million customers that it was immediately suspending withdrawals, swaps and transfers between accounts because of “extreme market conditions”.
> “We are taking this necessary action for the benefit of our entire community in order to stabilise liquidity and operations while we take steps to preserve and protect assets,” reads the statement from Celsius, which was valued at $US3.25 billion ($4.6 billion) in a capital raise late last year.
> It said it had "valuable assets", was working to meet commitments, and customers would continue to accrue "awards" during the freeze.
> 
> Celsius’ move echoes the recent collapse of another cryptocurrency project known as Terra/Luna. While the two differ in many respects, they are similar in that many people bought into Terra/Luna because they could access interest rates of 20 per cent. Celsius offers up to 18 per cent annualised interest for deposits of some tokens and time periods on its platform.
> Even as it froze withdrawals, Celsius was still promising users elsewhere on its site that they could "swap or withdraw your crypto at any time, with no fees" and that they were "safe forever".



It is not just tradies and maddies who are caught up in the Crypto madness, in particular with Celsius. 

CDQP a major Pension Fund out of Montreal, similar to the Industry Super Funds advertised on the televisions going up escalators here in Australia, although much larger. Anyways CDQP plonked $300m. in to Celsius recently. 

They like others will not be able to withdraw. 

The Crypto team at the hotel were searching the Financial Times library for Celsius and found an interesting article from last October. 



> Canada’s second-largest pension fund has said its inaugural investment in the digital asset sector reflects a belief that blockchain technology will shake up the financial industry, even as cryptocurrencies attract mounting regulatory scrutiny. Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec (CDPQ), the US$300bn Canadian pension fund manager, on Tuesday joined WestCap, the fund set up by former Airbnb and Blackstone executive Laurence Tosi, in leading a funding round for Celsius Network — a crypto lending platform that has been targeted by US state regulators who say it has breached securities laws. Alexandre Synnett, executive vice-president and chief technology officer at CDPQ, said he expected that taking a stake in Celsius despite the regulatory pressure might appear unusual. “We knew from the beginning of this investment that we would have questions,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times.




There will be fun and games in Montreal as they wake up this morning. 

Let us hope that none of our escalator Industry Super Funds have not joined the party of tears.

Disclosure : I never use escalators, as climbing stairs is good exercise.

gg


----------



## waterbottle

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is not just tradies and maddies who are caught up in the Crypto madness, in particular with Celsius.
> 
> CDQP a major Pension Fund out of Montreal, similar to the Industry Super Funds advertised on the televisions going up escalators here in Australia, although much larger. Anyways CDQP plonked $300m. in to Celsius recently.
> 
> They like others will not be able to withdraw.
> 
> The Crypto team at the hotel were searching the Financial Times library for Celsius and found an interesting article from last October.
> 
> 
> 
> There will be fun and games in Montreal as they wake up this morning.
> 
> Let us hope that none of our escalator Industry Super Funds have not joined the party of tears.
> 
> Disclosure : I never use escalators, as climbing stairs is good exercise.
> 
> gg




Holy ****...

Legitimate institutions actually bought this crap?!

This is a disaster...


----------



## waterbottle

Total market cap of crypto is now *less than $1 trillion.* To date there's been $2 trillion lost. And now we have news that pension funds were involved in this crap?

This is the pretext to the GFC. Trades being made in unregulated and private markets. And now the tide is heading out. Who's going to cover the losses? *How are they going to cover their losses*? By liquidating other assets i.e equities in favour fixed income products?

This will have implications for global markets. Personally there is to much contagion here to ignore a spillover into the "real world".


----------



## Trader X

waterbottle said:


> Legitimate institutions actually bought this crap?!



Incredibly yes.

_"Just 8 months ago Canada’s 2nd largest pension fund CDPQ and Westcap were touting the due diligence they had done before investing in Celsius (*$400M USD*) “We are very careful . . . our DD process is very serious”  _

Crypto Lender Celsius Stops Withdrawals, Fuels Market Slump
_"Doubts about the sky-high yields backing products such as those Celsius offers have intensified after the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May, and as tighter monetary policy across the world curbs demand for riskier assets. *The CEL token promises “actual financial rewards,” including as much as 30% extra returns weekly, according to its website.*

While the collapse of the TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin captured most of the market’s attention, one of the project’s main attractions for investors had been its promised interest rate, set as high as 20% for UST deposits in the Terra blockchain-based lending project Anchor. Celsius was an investor in the project. *Both revolve around the promise of super-high yields to keep up demand, which itself depended on a steady flow of new entrants feeding the system, or borrowing to pay the high rates.*"_

Ponzi scheme perhaps? _ "A Ponzi scheme is a form of fraud that lures investors and pays profits to earlier investors with funds from more recent investors."   _Madoff would have no doubt been impressed.

Getting uncomfortably close to that $21k margin call for MicroStrategy.


----------



## qldfrog

Trader X said:


> Incredibly yes.
> 
> _"Just 8 months ago Canada’s 2nd largest pension fund CDPQ and Westcap were touting the due diligence they had done before investing in Celsius (*$400M USD*) “We are very careful . . . our DD process is very serious”  _
> 
> Crypto Lender Celsius Stops Withdrawals, Fuels Market Slump
> _"Doubts about the sky-high yields backing products such as those Celsius offers have intensified after the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May, and as tighter monetary policy across the world curbs demand for riskier assets. *The CEL token promises “actual financial rewards,” including as much as 30% extra returns weekly, according to its website.*
> 
> While the collapse of the TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin captured most of the market’s attention, one of the project’s main attractions for investors had been its promised interest rate, set as high as 20% for UST deposits in the Terra blockchain-based lending project Anchor. Celsius was an investor in the project. *Both revolve around the promise of super-high yields to keep up demand, which itself depended on a steady flow of new entrants feeding the system, or borrowing to pay the high rates.*"_
> 
> Ponzi scheme perhaps? _ "A Ponzi scheme is a form of fraud that lures investors and pays profits to earlier investors with funds from more recent investors."   _Madoff would have no doubt been impressed.
> 
> Getting uncomfortably close to that $21k margin call for MicroStrategy.



we are there so is Micro Strategy toast this week?


----------



## bluekelah

qldfrog said:


> we are there so is Micro Strategy toast this week?



apparently during the last crypto correction couple months back they stated that they had enough capital/funds to cover their margin obligations even at 20k BTC price. Whether or not that is true we will find out pretty soon as BTC is now 22k and despite technicals saying support will be at 19-20k previous peak, IMO when the herd exits its gonna overshoot to the downside, especially for a crazy asset like crypto.

Whatever mayhem ensues, i am sure this will give regulators a very good excuse to walk back whatever concessions they have given to the crypto sector and possibly regulate it to death. For crypto banks there will be no bail in or bail out unfortunately..

I have a saying, - Virtual currencies and worth virtually nothing...


----------



## Trader X

qldfrog said:


> we are there so is Micro Strategy toast this week?



MicroStategy's share price is certainly being torched because it's predominantly a Bitcoin holding company now.  They can cover margin by pledging additional uncollateralized BTC.  MS is now down over a billion dollars on it's Bitcoin play but since Saylor primarily used OPM to fund Bitcoin accumulation he can continue to hodl at the expense of others.  A bit like Nero, he will watch the place burn down rather than admit he was wrong about the future of dematerialized gold.

Recent Saylor Twitter quote...
_"MicroStrategy has a $205M term loan and needs to maintain $410M as collateral. $MSTR has 115,109 BTC that it can pledge. If the price of #BTC falls below *$3,562* the company could post some other collateral."_


----------



## over9k




----------



## bluekelah

Trader X said:


> MicroStategy's share price is certainly being torched because it's predominantly a Bitcoin holding company now.  They can cover margin by pledging additional uncollateralized BTC.  MS is now down over a billion dollars on it's Bitcoin play but since Saylor primarily used OPM to fund Bitcoin accumulation he can continue to hodl at the expense of others.  A bit like Nero, he will watch the place burn down rather than admit he was wrong about the future of dematerialized gold.
> 
> Recent Saylor Twitter quote...
> _"MicroStrategy has a $205M term loan and needs to maintain $410M as collateral. $MSTR has 115,109 BTC that it can pledge. If the price of #BTC falls below *$3,562* the company could post some other collateral."_



BTC now 21.8k, other than microstrat, there are a lot of other BTC investors starting to face margin calls now as everything in crypto starts to unwind. Binance had a big hiccup in transactions overnight as well, now its fixed but will just mean the sell down becomes faster.

Stocks wise coinbase has gone from 350+ to 52 as of trading close last night.

Its dotcom crash all over again.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

bluekelah said:


> BTC now 21.8k, other than microstrat, there are a lot of other BTC investors starting to face margin calls now as everything in crypto starts to unwind. Binance had a big hiccup in transactions overnight as well, now its fixed but will just mean the sell down becomes faster.
> 
> Stocks wise coinbase has gone from 350+ to 52 as of trading close last night.
> 
> Its dotcom crash all over again.



If you look at the volume over the last 3 days on BTC it is nowhere near the volume when it had that dramatic drop from over $60, not to mention the drop in $ terms. 

I'd be expecting higher volume coming, as you say, as all the borrowed money being called back.

It is not going to be pretty. 

I'm sure Tulips went the same way. 

gg


----------



## grah33

with inflation and money printing, it might just start to go back up again


----------



## Trader X

Good background analysis piece on what happened at Celsius.  In short, a storm of withdraws created a liquidity crises.  Moral of the story, if the interest rates up to 17% offered seem to good to be true then they likely are.  You deposit your crypto into an unregulated entity, they then pay you interest until they stop and your crypto essentially becomes their crypto.  Your recourse?  None

_"The Israeli-American company Celsius announced last night that it is freezing the assets of its users - *1.7 million in total*, according to the company's latest count. That is, people who deposited their coins - be it Bitcoin, Ether or anything else - have lost all access to them, can not withdraw the coins, exchange them, pay with them for other loans they took or sell them. Will they ever be able to get their assets? Only time will tell."_


----------



## peter2

Posted by The Fly, (with my censorship).


----------



## Trader X

While Celsius, the shadow crypto bank, is busy hiring restructuring lawyers to stave of liquidation, let's not forget the impoverished country of El Salvador and its Bitcoin legal tender gamble.  Down 50% or $52 Million on its BTC, should it be a surprise that Bitcoin is an abject failure as a digital currency?  Should the Bitcoin luminaries who celebrated and encouraged this financial folly now step in to top-up the shortfall? Interesting insights in this article.


----------



## waterbottle

BTC knocking on 20k... Wow... They're all sh! T coins


----------



## Tyre Kicker

I’d almost consider buying BTC if it falls another 20K.

Almost.


----------



## Stockbailx

waterbottle said:


> BTC knocking on 20k... Wow... They're all sh! T coins



BTC beginning its nightly decent to glory...Can see it breaking the 20k and them sum! Not a bad product to sell if you play your cards right?


----------



## greggles

Bitcoin under $20,000 is going to be a self fulfilling prophecy. The selling pressure will come from those who want to exit above $20,000 and are convinced that they will be able to buy in again below this or who simply want to cash out before major selling commences below $20,000. Fear will get it under $20,000 as there simply won't be enough buying to stave off all the panic selling.

Bitcoin going below $20,000 will trigger huge liquidations that will drive it below its 2017 peak. More pain coming. Bitcoin currently at $20,277 and heading inexorably towards that critical $20,000 level.


----------



## Trader X

greggles said:


> Bitcoin going below $20,000 will trigger huge liquidations that will drive it below its 2017 peak. More pain coming. Bitcoin currently at $20,277 and heading inexorably towards that critical $20,000 level.



The $20k price level does seem to be a critical support level for Bitcoin based on price action. Every time BTC approaches $20k buying comes in to keep it above that level.  Interesting article in Decrypt about this... 
What Happens if Bitcoin Falls Below $20,000?​Some notable quotes...
_"If these levels break, $20k $BTC & $1k $ETH, we can expect massive sell pressure in the spot markets as dealers hedge themselves. We can also expect that there will be some otc dealers and that will be unable to hedge properly and might go belly up."

“I think many are fearful of a liquidation cascade occurring with the likes of Celsius being margin called, and now having a liquidation price of around $17,000 on their BTC position,”_


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Trader X said:


> The $20k price level does seem to be a critical support level for Bitcoin based on price action. Every time BTC approaches $20k buying comes in to keep it above that level.  Interesting article in Decrypt about this...
> What Happens if Bitcoin Falls Below $20,000?​Some notable quotes...
> _"If these levels break, $20k $BTC & $1k $ETH, we can expect massive sell pressure in the spot markets as dealers hedge themselves. We can also expect that there will be some otc dealers and that will be unable to hedge properly and might go belly up."
> 
> “I think many are fearful of a liquidation cascade occurring with the likes of Celsius being margin called, and now having a liquidation price of around $17,000 on their BTC position,”_



It will happen all of a sudden. 

All the listed Coin outfits are shorted.

Although BTC clung around $30,000 for a month recently, the shorts have increased dramatically as have defaults and closure of withdrawals. . 

gg


----------



## Trader X

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It will happen all of a sudden.



And as the final curtain approaches on the speculative frenzy to buy into thousands of virtual currency projects, the crash of all these crypto casino tokens will no doubt cause a tidal wave of litigations such as this...
Elon Musk sued for $258 billion over alleged Dogecoin pyramid scheme​


----------



## Stockbailx

BTC has crawled this morning to 20500 mark. But for my money has just retraced into it bearish form and has just set itself up to break through support of 20000. if not contain its self at that mark and continue correlation, until it collapses further in its true form. BTC really got nothing going for its self any more and I've been selling since around the 26000 mark, and look forward for more bargains. To good to be true?


----------



## moXJO

Getting  close for me to buy bitcoin. Just needs to halve.




Then maybe halve again.


----------



## againsthegrain

moXJO said:


> Getting  close for me to buy bitcoin. Just needs to halve.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Then maybe halve again.




ha I said this before, we all joking around atm.


----------



## explod

Just hovering.  Don't put up a pin


----------



## againsthegrain

Joel nearly had a house deposit in crypto. Now most of it's gone after the crash
					

The financial fate of many Australians will be decided over the next few days, as the price of many cryptocurrencies plunges and one major crypto-lender locks customers out of their own accounts.




					www.abc.net.au
				




And everybody was saying bitcoin is such a investment and stepping stone bla bla


----------



## Stockbailx

againsthegrain said:


> Joel nearly had a house deposit in crypto. Now most of it's gone after the crash
> 
> 
> The financial fate of many Australians will be decided over the next few days, as the price of many cryptocurrencies plunges and one major crypto-lender locks customers out of their own accounts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.abc.net.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And everybody was saying bitcoin is such a investment and stepping stone bla bla



Goes well if your following trend and participating in the sell off! Who says what goes up doesn't come down! Oils the one to watch also!

Perfect consumer affairs if you ask me?


----------



## moXJO

againsthegrain said:


> Joel nearly had a house deposit in crypto. Now most of it's gone after the crash
> 
> 
> The financial fate of many Australians will be decided over the next few days, as the price of many cryptocurrencies plunges and one major crypto-lender locks customers out of their own accounts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.abc.net.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And everybody was saying bitcoin is such a investment and stepping stone bla bla



They should have followed the 'moxjo trading method':


----------



## Stockbailx

moXJO said:


> They should have followed the 'moxjo trading method':



Good to read that Inflation is the probable cause of BTC fall from grace! Something worth keeping an eye on!


----------



## moXJO

Stockybailz said:


> Good to hear that Inflation is the probable cause of BTC fall from grace!



I'll probably grab some btc but it needs a huge drop from here for me to be interested. Inflation has a habit of destroying wealth utterly. And it's just in reality a huge gamble that it might come back.

Bitcoin maxis are saying how they will keep buying under $20k till they possibly control the supply. Not sure how many sold enough coins to capitalise on their wealth at the top. One sydney maximum is going to sell his house to buy more.

If Inflation is here to stay for a while, then it's going to push everything down in waves.  Then it's going to grind out hopes and dreams till all these "investors" have left to say is:
"Do you want fries with that".


----------



## againsthegrain

moXJO said:


> I'll probably grab some btc but it needs a huge drop from here for me to be interested. Inflation has a habit of destroying wealth utterly. And it's just in reality a huge gamble that it might come back.
> 
> Bitcoin maxis are saying how they will keep buying under $20k till they possibly control the supply. Not sure how many sold enough coins to capitalise on their wealth at the top. One sydney maximum is going to sell his house to buy more.
> 
> If Inflation is here to stay for a while, then it's going to push everything down in waves.  Then it's going to grind out hopes and dreams till all these "investors" have left to say is:
> "Do you want fries with that".




They were kind of saying this when it fell to 80k then 70k 60k... now 30k buying the dip yo


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

BTC broke down towards 1900 about an hour and one half ago on huge volume from my Kitco.com chart. 

gg


----------



## Stockbailx

Kitco must be a good forecast for when the market opens on monday?


Garpal Gumnut said:


> BTC broke down towards 1900 about an hour and one half ago on huge volume from my Kitco.com chart.
> 
> gg


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> Kitco must be a good forecast for when the market opens on monday?



I looked that up and I see the same thing BTC down the 1900's. Is that because it's still friday in the USA or were ever there getting that intel from. I'm confused didn't think it possible? Your got your self a cheat for when the market opens on monday. I'm shocked and can't wait for it! Quite a navigational system, must be the latest model.


----------



## basilio

So the next  query is checking out which financial institutions are exposed  directly or indirectly to a collapsing bit coin.
Traders, people with leveraged positions, companies using bit coin as collateral..

All will be vulnerable when the tide goes out.


----------



## Stockbailx

basilio said:


> So the next  query is checking out which financial institutions are exposed  directly or indirectly to a collapsing bit coin.
> Traders, people with leveraged positions, companies using bit coin as collateral..
> 
> All will be vulnerable when the tide goes out.



Those financial institutions would be doing time, If they didn't quite when they were ahead? As a Trader I laugh at the situation and take it for granted. Anyone losing as a part of the BTC deal need their head examined! Just have to bring the ship in before the tide goes out. Sounds extreme, but its true!


----------



## Telamelo




----------



## Telamelo




----------



## Stockbailx

Looking at that latest model forecast from Kitco...BTC tumbling further, another 1000 coin into the low 1800's. Amazing stuff,,,I notice the market according to Kitco still on the move and trading to day. Just had a push up to 1870 @ 17:30 hrs ( UTC - 4 )


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> Looking at that latest model forecast from Kitco...BTC tumbling further, another 1000 coin into the low 1800's. Amazing stuff,,,I notice the market according to Kitco still on the move and trading to day. Just had a push up to 1870 @ 17:30 hrs ( UTC - 4 )




Pissed off missed missed the beginning of BTC trading hours, got to pull me head out and try and get around, now tarding on my MT4.. I thought trading was Mon - Fri had no Idea about this! Please Explain, Are crypto's 24/7?


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> Pissed off missed missed the beginning of BTC trading hours, got to pull me head out and try and get around, now tarding on my MT4.. I thought trading was Mon - Fri had no Idea about this! Please Explain, Are crypto's 24/7?



View attachment 143042

I just don't get it! My MT4 wasn't processing last night when BTC fell further to the 1900's, but looked in on it this morning and there it was BTC in all it's glory down to the 1800's and just getting a leg up in resurgence. I definitely  got to take this up with my Broker. A missed opportunity! BTC fighting back up to the 1900's...


----------



## moXJO

Stockybailz said:


> Pissed off missed missed the beginning of BTC trading hours, got to pull me head out and try and get around, now tarding on my MT4.. I thought trading was Mon - Fri had no Idea about this! Please Explain, Are crypto's 24/7?
> 
> View attachment 143042



Crypto is 24/7


----------



## Stockbailx

moXJO said:


> Crypto is 24/7



Got a few words to say to my broker. I should of already known that, but had just come to my attention last night, when gg let the cat out of the bag. Announcing BTC was on the move. Brokers busted! Pitty there's always a political ***** *****-er out there, trying to rip the every day Joe Blow off...
Noticed BTC cash- BCH / USD is on the move. Sitting a bit prettier then BTC/USD But looking better for worse, also on the decline since, late march, looks to of ran into strife, hindering BTC/USD I would think if anything...


----------



## Stockbailx

BTC bouncing back, tough as nails up to 20689. I didn't think it had it in it, buying taking the opportunity to salvage some BTC respect! Look forward to buying the retrace down!


----------



## Telamelo

Stockybailz said:


> Pissed off missed missed the beginning of BTC trading hours, got to pull me head out and try and get around, now tarding on my MT4.. I thought trading was Mon - Fri had no Idea about this! Please Explain, Are crypto's 24/7?
> 
> View attachment 143042



Crypto's trade 24/7 yes mate..


----------



## Telamelo

Stockybailz said:


> BTC bouncing back, tough as nails up to 20689. I didn't think it had it in it, buying taking the opportunity to salvage some BTC respect! Look forward to buying the retrace down!
> 
> View attachment 143090



With US market's closed tonight (i.e. Monday) think that there was less fear this weekend about jumping back into Bitcoin & Ethereum etc. & reason for the short term spike/rally over the weekend imo


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin City: El Salvador president unveils layout of ‘crypto utopia’
					

Flagship project of BTC-loving president is being built in the shadow of a volcano




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## moXJO

noirua said:


> Bitcoin City: El Salvador president unveils layout of ‘crypto utopia’
> 
> 
> Flagship project of BTC-loving president is being built in the shadow of a volcano
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.independent.co.uk




2 weeks later.....


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

moXJO said:


> 2 weeks later.....
> 
> 
> View attachment 143161



You beat me to it @moXJO

This was BTC last Saturday.



gg


----------



## Stockbailx

Looking at the 4H, we can see that Bitcoin has made the first leg higher, breaking the last lower fast trend and moving above the moving averages. Since that break higher, we have seen the market move into consolidation. The pattern we can see on the 4H is an ascending triangle pattern.
These patterns are generally seen as continuation patterns when they are sitting in up legs or up trends. From here, it is all up to buyers. Can they confirm the pattern with a new break higher?
If we do see a confirmed breakout, we will be looking to see if buyers can test 22,700 resistance. If buyer momentum really carries forward past 22,700, we would then be looking at 28,500 – 31,000 to come in as resistance possibly.
But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s see if bitcoin buyers can first confirm the pattern and get back up to 22,700! If sellers set a new close below 20,100, we will start doubting buyer strength.


----------



## moXJO

I think there's still money about. A lot of people are still looking for high % gains, and crypto players have no idea how money gets chewed out during inflation.

At the other end. I think I saw a poll that said 90% of people expecting financial markets to go down. Generally the crowd gets it wrong. 
I still think the FOMO is there. We might also see government stimulation from governments around the world. 
I'm expecting a decent pump at some stage. Actually just looked at dow and its pumped up a bit. 

I'm still overall bearish but expecting some big swing plays as investors get ground out. There's to much money that's been saved up.


----------



## Stockbailx

moXJO said:


> I'm still overall bearish but expecting some big swing plays as investors get ground out. There's to much money that's been saved up.



With all the pressure BTC under, I don't think it could ever recover. Certainly under pump, Investors having a field day with BTC becoming easier to predict. Not enough buyer confidence amount's to a legit response. But I wouldn't get to cocky H4 market shows strong high nomentum their could be a swing any time now?


----------



## Telamelo

https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/world-markets/one-coin-that-could-wreck-cryptocurrency-for-good/news-story/eb8b8b539e6821fc5bf04a1c20bfb5d1


----------



## noirua

On the brink of recession: Can Bitcoin survive its first global economic crisis?
					

Bitcoin has not seen a single full-blown recession in its lifetime but analysts see it surviving one after suffering more blows.




					cointelegraph.com
				



"The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust," Satoshi Nakamoto wrote in 2009.


----------



## moXJO

Stockybailz said:


> With all the pressure BTC under, I don't think it could ever recover. Certainly under pump, Investors having a field day with BTC becoming easier to predict. Not enough buyer confidence amount's to a legit response. But I wouldn't get to cocky H4 market shows strong high nomentum their could be a swing any time now?



Swinging already after the lows the other day.
Some big plays in some of the smaller coins as well. I'll keep trading crypto while it's a thing. Shares are just sht returns in comparison.


----------



## noirua

June 16 2022


----------



## Trader X

noirua said:


> "The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust," Satoshi Nakamoto wrote in 2009.



Except that Bitcoin is abstracted digital fiat, undeserved faith and confidence required.  The volatility, reliance on Tether and transaction inefficiency of Bitcoin render it undesirable as a store of value or medium of exchange, therefore it does not function as a viable currency or provide a reliable opportunity to opt out of the financial system as Nakamoto intended.  Its market price is totally disconnected from any claimed value proposition and supported entirely by hype, FOMO and the greater fool principle.


----------



## Stockbailx

Trader X said:


> Except that Bitcoin is abstracted digital fiat, undeserved faith and confidence required.  The volatility, reliance on Tether and transaction inefficiency of Bitcoin render it undesirable as a store of value or medium of exchange, therefore it does not function as a viable currency or provide a reliable opportunity to opt out of the financial system as Nakamoto intended.  Its market price is totally disconnected from any claimed value proposition and supported entirely by hype, FOMO and the greater fool principle.



That's all fair in all, and probably true to a degree. Like all cypto's and commodity's alike their underlying value can be of a significant asset to traders. Unlike what your saying BTC is till endurable in it's short term future, give it a couple years if that. (Having a punt) And if it continues to follow trend as the outlook for it's long term appraise is in question. Perhaps it should be regulated giving it more leg room to stand up as a proposition for traders around the world...


----------



## noirua

Crypto Clarified: Investing in the truth - Crypto Winter.


			https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/strategies/crypto-currency/crypto-podcast?utm_medium=Native&utm_source=Dianomi&utm_content=Markets%20Insider&utm_term=Crypto-247423&utm_campaign=Crypto
		

Latest Episode 24 June 2022


----------



## noirua

Trader X said:


> Except that Bitcoin is abstracted digital fiat, undeserved faith and confidence required.  The volatility, reliance on Tether and transaction inefficiency of Bitcoin render it undesirable as a store of value or medium of exchange, therefore it does not function as a viable currency or provide a reliable opportunity to opt out of the financial system as Nakamoto intended.  Its market price is totally disconnected from any claimed value proposition and supported entirely by hype, FOMO and the greater fool principle.



Once the 21 million mark is reached for Bitcoin no more will be produced.  At that point Bitcoin should in theory become more stable.








						What Happens to Bitcoin After All 21 Million Are Mined?
					

Bitcoin, the first and most popular cryptocurrency, is finite. What happens when it reaches its total maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins?




					www.investopedia.com


----------



## againsthegrain

noirua said:


> Once the 21 million mark is reached for Bitcoin no more will be produced.  At that point Bitcoin should in theory become more stable.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What Happens to Bitcoin After All 21 Million Are Mined?
> 
> 
> Bitcoin, the first and most popular cryptocurrency, is finite. What happens when it reaches its total maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.investopedia.com




Just a cool 100 years to get there, not long now


----------



## Telamelo

https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/investing/why-bitcoin-might-be-a-terrible-investment/news-story/763c9763cfba0e4cca0909ee7c2af1e8


----------



## noirua

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
		









						El Salvador's Bitcoin-boosting leader buys $1.5 million more
					

El Salvador’s Bitcoin-boosting president is back at it, doubling down on his country's losing investment in the cryptocurrency by buying over $1.5 million more




					abcnews.go.com
				



According to the tracking site nayibtracker.com, starting last September, El Salvador has paid an average of almost $46,000 per coin, for a loss of 56%, or around $59 million.
Most of the nation’s dollar bonds now trade at around 35 cents on the dollar, deep in distressed territory


----------



## Stockbailx

noirua said:


> Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> El Salvador's Bitcoin-boosting leader buys $1.5 million more
> 
> 
> El Salvador’s Bitcoin-boosting president is back at it, doubling down on his country's losing investment in the cryptocurrency by buying over $1.5 million more
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abcnews.go.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> According to the tracking site nayibtracker.com, starting last September, El Salvador has paid an average of almost $46,000 per coin, for a loss of 56%, or around $59 million.
> Most of the nation’s dollar bonds now trade at around 35 cents on the dollar, deep in distressed territory



El-salvador Leader sounds like a bit of a desperate cut snake, with a gambling addiction, I don't know how people can trust him with their sovereignty. Bit of a loser hoping to win big on garbage like Bitcoin. Bit sus...


----------



## Trader X

Stockybailz said:


> El-salvador Leader sounds like a bit of a desperate cut snake, with a gambling addiction, I don't know how people can trust him with their sovereignty. Bit of a loser hoping to win big on garbage like Bitcoin. Bit sus...



Bukele drank the Bitcoin kool-aid peddled by its most prominent promoters.  Bitcoin was never going to transform an impoverished, dollarized third world country into a mecca for crypto expats and change the country's financial fortunes.  It's more than sus, it's a disastrous experiment wasting millions in crypto fantasy land for a country that can least afford such losses.  

El Salvador’s $425 million bitcoin experiment isn’t saving the country’s finances​_"In terms of merchant adoption, a survey published in March by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of El Salvador found that 86% of businesses have never made a sale in bitcoin." 

“The plane is gonna crash eventually, if they don’t change things,” said Muci. “If they don’t raise taxes, cut spending, start being much more disciplined. You know, convincing markets that they’re sustainable.”

He added,_ *“Bitcoin doesn’t solve any of El Salvador’s important economic problems.”*


----------



## noirua

Crypto mining goes bust, too
July 1 2022
Https://www.protocol.com/newsletters/protocol-fintech/crypto-mining-leverage​


----------



## noirua

Key Bitcoin chart ‘will confirm bottom is in’ by July 15, says trader
					

BTC price action could definitively reverse in just one week if this Bitcoin chart signal is to be believed.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## waterbottle

BTC has had down legs just prior to Fed meeting on the past 2 occasions.... Can it fall a 3rd time?


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin miner prices may fall if supply exceeds demand: F2Pool exec
					

The price of ASIC miners is likely to continue falling in the near future, according to an executive at F2Pool, one of the world’s largest Bitcoin mining pools.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

The pundits are expecting a move for Bitcoin to the $10,000 level and are making a worthy guess.

Smaller set-ups are going bust and their machines are worth not much with higher electricity prices. ARGO and RIOT are being burned in Texas with the big heat. Having to cut electricity usage just when they need to increase it.

The Bitcoin price of around $20,000 means losses and some may have to close down parts if not all of their operations.

Once they have no Bitcoin left they will have to result to any measures to raise cash to survive. Thank goodness some have solar that may allow them to survive as well as those who have diversified.​


----------



## noirua

Data points to a Bitcoin bottom, but one metric warns of a final drop to $14K
					

The bear market is far from over, but according to Glassnode, several metrics suggest that Bitcoin capitulation already occurred.




					cointelegraph.com
				



“When will it end?” is the question that is on the mind of investors who have endured the current crypto winter and witnessed the demise of multiple protocols and investment funds over the past few months.


----------



## noirua

Crypto firms facing insolvency ‘forgot the basics of risk management’ — Coinbase
					

Head of Coinbase Institutional Brett Tejpaul, head of prime finance Matt Boyd, and head of credit and market risk Caroline Tarnok said Coinbase had not engaged in the “types of risky lending practices” exhibited by Three Arrows Capital, Celsius and Voyager Digital.




					cointelegraph.com
				



A court in the British Virgin Islands reportedly ordered the liquidation of Three Arrows Capital. Voyager Digital filed for bankruptcy in July, later announcing that its plan to restore users’ crypto could depend on funds from any proceedings with Three Arrows Capital, which failed to repay 15,250 Bitcoin (BTC) and 350 million USD Coin (USDC) loans. Celsius also filed petitions for Chapter 11, with the platform’s lawyers using an unusual legal argument to avoid restoring users’ funds.


----------



## CityIndex

The correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ100 broke down on Wednesday as BTC’s recent move higher stalled right around the downtrend resistance coming from the March high.

Although news of Tesla selling 75% of their Bitcoin holdings in Q2 is ultimately what resulted in the cryptocurrency finishing Wednesday’s session lower, BTC had already pared some of its gains after being unable to hold above the key $24K level.

All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see how Bitcoin, and the broader crypto market react to this news. Can it extend this run higher on stronger risk sentiment, or will it continue to trend lower over the coming days?


----------



## noirua

A short-term BTC rally or trend reversal? Find out now on ‘Market Talks’ with Crypto Jebb
					

Wondering if the recent Bitcoin price movement is going to keep moving forward, or if this is just another bear trap? Join the conversation with Nicholas Merten from ‘DataDash’ and get answers about the recent market movements




					cointelegraph.com
				



Wondering if the recent Bitcoin price movement is going to keep moving forward, or if this is just another bear trap? Join the conversation with Nicholas Merten from ‘DataDash’ and get answers about the recent market movements.


----------



## noirua

Will the Fed prevent BTC price from reaching $28K? — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
					

Bitcoin headwinds stack up after BTC price disappoints on the weekly close.




					cointelegraph.com
				



After sealing a successful weekly close — its highest since mid-June — BTC/USD is much more cautious as the Federal Reserve prepares to hike benchmark interest rates to fight inflation.


----------



## noirua

Max Keiser: Https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/maxkeiser


----------



## over9k

Crypto reaffirming its risk asset status running hard last night. Nearly a double off the lows now.


----------



## noirua

July 25, 2022


This story package from Hard Money features Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert and the people of El Salvador working to promote Bitcoin adoption in the country.

Watch the full episode here: Https://youtu.be/0QNhZ06VACg
Jul 25, 2022
Https://youtu.be/GQ83SISLQwQ​


----------



## CityIndex

Despite hitting a new 7-week high over the weekend, Bitcoin failed to hold attempted break above 24k for 4 straight session, paring gains each time.

With crypto is often considered a riskier asset than traditional equities, BTC’s inability to break this key resistance may be an indication that risk appetite is still relatively subdued, and risks to the downside prevalent.

All trading carries risk, but with the S&P500 and ASX200 also currently testing key resistance levels, it will be interesting to see if the rally in July was actually the start of a rebound, or just countertrend rally before the next leg lower.


----------



## investtrader

My prediction - 10k.


----------



## noirua

Will the Bitcoin mining industry collapse? Analysts explain why crisis is really opportunity
					

Many BTC miners are in a tough spot and a few could collapse, but experts say the industry is here to stay.




					cointelegraph.com
				





> “Hedge funds blow up very quickly. I think miners are going to take 3 to 6 months to blow up. So we’ll see who’s got good operations and who’s able to survive this low margin environment.”


----------



## bluekelah

noirua said:


> July 25, 2022
> 
> 
> This story package from Hard Money features Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert and the people of El Salvador working to promote Bitcoin adoption in the country.
> 
> Watch the full episode here: Https://youtu.be/0QNhZ06VACg
> Jul 25, 2022
> Https://youtu.be/GQ83SISLQwQ​





Max Keiser managed to con the dictator of a small 3rd world country. lets see what happens when BTC goes down to 1k when the CBDCs start coming online next year or so. Hope he makes it back to USA before he gets hung and skinned by the locals lol...


----------



## Trader X

Michael Saylor steps down as MicroStrategy CEO, company takes $917 million charge on bitcoin​_"At the end of Q2, the carrying value of MicroStrategy’s digital assets (comprised of approximately 129,699 bitcoins) was $1.988 billion, which reflects cumulative impairment losses of *$1.989 billion* since acquisition and an average carrying amount per bitcoin of approximately $15,326, the company said in a statement."_

Was Saylor, one the the highest profile Bitcoin evangelists, asked to step down or did so after being almost solely responsible for a $2 billion impairment loss on Bitcoin speculation?  His _"oversight of the Company’s bitcoin acquisition strategy"  _has been a financial disaster for the company yet that is now part of his official role!  Amid his arrogance and hubris as the media go to spokesperson for all things Bitcoin, his slow motion downfall from grace will be of little comfort to MicroStrategy investors.  MicroStrategy is now a target of short sellers thanks to Saylor's folly.


----------



## noirua

Oxford City football club to accept Bitcoin payments
					

Fans are able to buy tickets, food and drink with the digital currency following the deal.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




I'm not sure if this can be accessed from Australia - will look elsewhere.









						Oxford City Football Club to accept Bitcoin for matchday tickets
					

In a first for the sixth-tier English football league, the club will wear the Bitcoin logo on their shirts, and fans will be able to buy tickets with BTC over the Lightning Network.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Australian football league secures $25M deal with Crypto.com
					

The AFLW has secured a deal with digital assets exchange Crypto.com in what will be the first major crypto sports sponsorship in Australia.




					cointelegraph.com
				











						Over 170 service stations in South Australia will accept payment in crypto from July
					

A group of South Australian service stations and convenience stores owned by On The Run join will soon accept crypto payments.




					www.smartcompany.com.au


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin Realtime Streaming Trades: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=trades


----------



## noirua

Crypto use an aggravating factor for sentencing: Aussie court study
					

A study for the Monash University Law Review has found that the use of cryptocurrency in criminal activity is seen as an aggravating factor in sentencing.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Hong Kong positioned as the most crypto-ready country in 2022
					

Factors such as crypto ATM installations, pro-crypto regulations, startup culture and a fair tax regime signal a country’s readiness to adopt cryptocurrencies.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

My own guess for Bitcoin is that a base is being formed between $21,500 and $24,500 and there will be a bull run towards $40,000 that will end up running short to about $38,000. Bitcoin miners like Marathon Digital, Riot Blockchain, and Hut8 are gathering strength despite Bitcoin having apparently stalled. Having risen between 50% and 80% on the Bitcoin mini-rally of 25% from its low point of $18,500 or so.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin Live Chart: 
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16


----------



## noirua

__





						Bill Gates To Step Back From Microsoft, Jumps on BitcoinX         Computing Financial Tech | Business | The Guardian
					





					www.ibkash.net
				



 - Tuesday, January 11, 2022


----------



## CityIndex

Bitcoin hit a 2-month high over the weekend, briefly breaking 25K, and seems to have potentially established an uptrend, having made a series of higher lows over the last few weeks.

However, like with all risk assets at the moment, it remains to be seen whether this is actually the start of a longer-term rebound, or simply a bear-market rally.

All trading carries risk, and this week could determine if the euphoria following the soft US CPI print is sustainable, which will likely be key in terms of BTC’s ability to hold trendline support emerging from the mid-July lows.


----------



## noirua

Crypto market bloodbath leads to over $500M in liquidations in 24 hours
					

Data from crypto analytics firm Glassnode shows that futures long liquidations of BTC touched a new eight-month high as BTC price crashed below $22,000 on Friday.




					cointelegraph.com
				



The flash crash after weeks of bullish momentum also saw 157,098 traders getting liquidated in the past 24 hours resulting in liquidation of over $551 million. Data from Coinglass indicate Bitcoin traders lost over $203 million in liquidations, followed by Ethereum traders at $140 million.


----------



## waterbottle




----------



## waterbottle

ETH now down to 1580...


----------



## Stockbailx

BTC down to shorter term support level of 2100 range, will we see a crash down to 1700 range into next week? Getting to a real low point in its career. i don't hold much hope for it. Sellers in control?


----------



## noirua

Average Bitcoin transaction fee drops under $1 as network difficulty recovers
					

August also marked the end of the three-month-long downfall of network difficulty — recovering back to 28.351 trillion from its freefall.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## CityIndex

Although bitcoin has been trading in a bullish channel coming from the June-lows, Friday’s flash crash certainly raises concerns of a deeper sell-off as many long positions were likely liquidated.

However, BTC managed to hold support at the channel’s bottom trendline, and at the time of writing, Monday’s decline appears to be doing the same. Is this an indication of strong demand at the current levels supporting a slow, but steady, rebound? Or is this still a countertrend rally below that risks collapsing below the key 24K resistance?

All trading carries risk, but it could be worth keeping an eye on the crypto market this week as risk sentiment remains fragile.


----------



## noirua

El Salvador Crypto Adoption Is Lagging – May Lead To Disaster - WebTimes
					

El Salvador crypto adoption is lagging behind projected and desired timeframes, as hype for Bitcoin has fallen drastically amongst the population of the country. When El Salvador legalized Bitcoin, the crypto world exploded. However, the current crypto winter has called the judgment into...




					webtimes.uk


----------



## noirua




----------



## noirua

_Bitcoin estimated hash rate chart_
Mining hardware keeps on changing and devices with higher hash rates are manufactured. The best Bitcoin miner has a high hash rate way up *10 Th/s*, excellent power consumption, and power efficiency. However, profitability depends on power consumption, power cost in your area, and the price of Bitcoin.


----------



## Telamelo

Elliott wave theory as applied to Bitcoin chart


----------



## greggles

Confidence in crypto evaporating as the rest of the market comes crashing down. Looks like BTC is heading back to test previous lows at around USD$18,000.


----------



## CityIndex

Bitcoin looks to be getting some demand right now, although that could change if heavy risk-off trading continues during the European and US trading session.

The technical backdrop for BTC does signal the potential for further losses, as the move below $20K followed Friday’s strong break of the uptrend channel support coming from the June lows.

All trading carries risk, and near-term direction should depend on how sentiment develops this week. However, given the increased risk associated with cryptos, BTC could find itself leading the way lower, and retesting its lows.


----------



## noirua

Are Bitcoin transactions anonymous and traceable?
					

Bitcoin transactions are easily traceable through blockchain explorers but do not directly reveal the identities behind Bitcoin wallet addresses.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

No one really knows what is going to happen to the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptos. Most of the so called top tipsters and amongst them those who got in under $100 have gone to ground. Many forecast over $200,000 and some $500,000+. 

One share, nothing to do with cryptos, Vast Resources AIM:VAST was over £2.00 in 2016 and when it fell by 90% to 20 pence many cried out ridiculously cheap.  Some years later the shares did touch floor down a further 98.5% to 0.3 pence. Now around 0.7 pence up 130%. A lesson here with cryptos as the same fall in Bitcoin takes it right back to $103.50.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

noirua said:


> No one really knows what is going to happen to the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptos. Most of the so called top tipsters and amongst them those who got in under $100 have gone to ground. Many forecast over $200,000 and some $500,000+.
> 
> One share, nothing to do with cryptos, Vast Resources AIM:VAST was over £2.00 in 2016 and when it fell by 90% to 20 pence many cried out ridiculously cheap.  Some years later the shares did touch floor down a further 98.5% to 0.3 pence. Now around 0.7 pence up 130%. A lesson here with cryptos as the same fall in Bitcoin takes it right back to $103.50.



I'm still tossing up whether to throw some kopeks at ETH before the "Merge".

I wouldn't touch BTC with a barge pole. 

gg


----------



## noirua

UK economic secretary commits to make country a crypto hub under new PM
					

Economic Secretary to the Treasury Richard Fuller suggested making the U.K. a “hospitable place for crypto” with jobs, tax revenue, investments and innovative technology.




					cointelegraph.com
				



“The U.K. can either be a spectator as this technology transforms aspects of life, or we can become the best place in the world to start and scale crypto technologies,” said Fuller. “We want the U.K. to be the dominant global hub for crypto technologies, and so will build on the strengths of our thriving fintech sector, creating new jobs, developing groundbreaking new products and services.”


----------



## noirua

Which Australian Banks accept Bitcoin? | NOWPayments
					

Australia is in a complex situation in terms of its banking institutions' perspectives on cryptocurrency. Some Australian banks welcome crypto investors




					nowpayments.io
				




There are more and more crypto-friendly banks in Australia.
Some banks, including ANZ and Bendigo, are less welcoming of crypto traders.
Australian merchants can use NOWPayments’ services as a way to accept crypto while avoiding banks.


----------



## noirua

'No one really knows what is going to happen to the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptos. Most of the so called top tipsters and amongst them those who got in under $100 have gone to ground. Many forecast over $200,000 and some $500,000+.'

There has been a sudden move to just short of $22,000 in Bitcoin late Friday. Rumours that Whales are buying back in. How all this will effect Bitcoin if Russia declares war on Western Countries supporting Ukraine actually in Ukraine is another matter that may not be that far away.


----------



## Telamelo

noirua said:


> 'No one really knows what is going to happen to the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptos. Most of the so called top tipsters and amongst them those who got in under $100 have gone to ground. Many forecast over $200,000 and some $500,000+.'
> 
> There has been a sudden move to just short of $22,000 in Bitcoin late Friday. Rumours that Whales are buying back in. How all this will effect Bitcoin if Russia declares war on Western Countries supporting Ukraine actually in Ukraine is another matter that may not be that far away.



Bitcoin & major crypto's tend to follow US market's -  when equities are bullish so is crypto & vice-versa


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin was down 9.7% to $20,220 a minute ago. The DOW was down 4% and AUD 2.4% against the USD. Gold down 1.3% in USD but up 1.1% in AUD.


----------



## noirua

The average Bitcoin bear market length is said to be 289 days. The present bear market should end sometime between October 2022 until March 2023. The lowest price could be between $10,000 and $11,000 though more likely between $14,000 and $16,000.








						How Long will a Bitcoin Bear Market Last?
					

Crypto bear market bottom might be close; learn how you can outperform during these tough times.




					www.benzinga.com
				



2012 Bitcoin Bear Market​The first major bear market of Bitcoin was in 2012, a year that was marked by an onslaught of hacks and negative events that contributed to the uncertainty around Bitcoin. This bear market lasted 185 days, with a peak price of $7.08 and a bear market low of $4.22.
2014 Crypto Bear Market​Subsequently, 2013 was an extremely significant year for Bitcoin and crypto in general. In October 2013, Silk Road, an online black market, was shut down by the FBI. However, Silk Road’s significance in the history of Bitcoin was that it represented the crypto asset’s first form of widespread user adoption. This bear market lasted 415 days, with a peak price of $1,149.19 and a bear market low of $197.24.
2018 Crypto Bear Market​The 2018 cryptocurrency bear market followed what many refer to as the bursting of the cryptocurrency bubble. After an unprecedented boom in 2017, the price of Bitcoin fell by over 65% from January 6 to February 6. The cryptocurrency market entered a long winter, picking back up in early 2019.


----------



## noirua

The Face Behind Bitcoin​BY LEAH MCGRATH GOODMAN ON 03/06/14 AT 6:05 AM EST









						The Face Behind Bitcoin
					

The reclusive inventor of the troubled virtual currency has been hiding in plain sight




					www.newsweek.com
				




Or was Hal Finney who lived nearby the creator of Bitcoin: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Finney_(computer_scientist)



Unseen footage of Hal Finney from 2010. Hal Finney created Bitcoin together with Adam Back, Nick Szabo and others. Rest in Peace


----------



## noirua

Biggest mining difficulty spike in 14 months — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
					

Bitcoin enters a new week with BTC price due some rare volatility.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

HODL! Tesla hangs onto all its remaining $218M in Bitcoin in Q3
					

The vehicle manufacturer's latest earnings report for the third quarter shows it's made no changes to its Bitcoin holdings since its...



					uk.advfn.com


----------



## CityIndex

Interesting to see the relatively non-volatile Bitcoin trading continue, even after the FOMC sparked huge swings in the equity market overnight. 

BTC has followed a pretty flat sideways channel for over two months now, and is currently holding above $20K despite USD's sharp reversal higher during Wednesday's session. Is this a sign of a longer-term accumulation zone, or just a lack of interest in the cryptos given the current macro environment?


----------



## mullokintyre

The Fin Review  in the persona of Tony Boyd was extremely bullish on the idea of the BTC  ETF back in early 2021.
From Fin Review
Bitcoin believers and long-standing sceptics seem to agree that 2021 will be the year when several stock exchanges in leading financial centres drop their opposition to the listing of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

A bitcoin ETF would be transformative for the asset class because it would bring it into the mainstream distribution networks run by brokers and financial planners. Also, a bitcoin ETF would have to abide by certain periodic and standardised pricing and valuation rules.

In This AFR article  he suggested the very first ETF would probably pull in in excess of AUD1billion.

Well now it seems that the first one to market, the COSMOS backed  BTC, Etherium and bitcoin miner ETFS have been pulled from the market after less than stellar interest from investors.
From  The Evil Murdoch emire


> Well, that didn’t take long. Despite the extravagant fuss over its bitcoin and ethereum ETFs – launched earlier this year – Cosmos Asset Management said on Wednesday it was delisting both products, in a move that seems an obvious reaction to a lack of investor interest.
> A third fund, focused on bitcoin miners, would also be withdrawn, the company said.





> According to its website, the bitcoin ETF held roughly $890,000 in assets under management as of October 31. Its ethereum product attracted $270,000 while the digital mining ETF, launched in September 2021, had a volume of $700,000.



Most of the article is puerile crap bagging Boyd , from a rival newspaper,  for being a big supporter.
However, it did correctly call out Boyd for  not disclosing early on that he held shares  in Mawson Infrastructure, which until recently owned Cosmos and remains its largest shareholder.
Transparency is everything, even if your holding may be small.
Mick


----------



## Trader X

mullokintyre said:


> A bitcoin ETF would be transformative for the asset class because it would bring it into the mainstream distribution networks run by brokers and financial planners. Also, a bitcoin ETF would have to abide by certain periodic and standardised pricing and valuation rules.




Of course the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust can be used as a proxy for holding BTC for a 2% annual fee and trading at a deep discount to NAV for some time now...

_"One of the first securities solely invested in and deriving value from the price of BTC.
Grayscale® Bitcoin Trust is solely and passively invested in BTC, enabling investors to gain exposure to BTC in the form of a security while avoiding the challenges of buying, storing, and safekeeping BTC, directly."_

For BTC speculators, why wait for an ETF when GBTC is trading at such a discount to NAV.


----------



## noirua

Is Bitcoin bullish or nah? Here is what is really going on with BTC price
					

Data suggests BTC is finally carving out a bottom, but is it time to buy?




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Each lower target has been met so far - 8p is the most recent. The next is 3p - 3.5p and for now, looks too low to believe. Maybe 3p - 3.5p would signal capitulation. The forecasters of $10,000 for Bitcoin have not gone away.​Today Bitcoin hit $17,500 before bouncing back. Trading in the $18,000 to $19,000 range after the big fall.


			https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

noirua said:


> Each lower target has been met so far - 8p is the most recent. The next is 3p - 3.5p and for now, looks too low to believe. Maybe 3p - 3.5p would signal capitulation. The forecasters of $10,000 for Bitcoin have not gone away.​Today Bitcoin hit $17,500 before bouncing back. Trading in the $18,000 to $19,000 range after the big fall.
> 
> 
> https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16



BTC is a Casino and the price will vary as do winnings at Roulette, but the Crypto and Hedge Fund manipulators will algorithm their way, long and short to profit. 

There are better markets out there for the average punter.

gg


----------



## Trader X

noirua said:


> Today Bitcoin hit $17,500 before bouncing back. Trading in the $18,000 to $19,000 range after the big fall.
> https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16



Perhaps the U.S. DOJ is cashing out the $3.3 Billion USD in Bitcoin they seized from James Zhong.


----------



## Sean K

Finally, a narrative actually supporting gold.


----------



## Trader X

So FTX almost collapsed and needed rival Binance to bail them out.  How long before the entire crypto house of cards inevitably comes crashing down seems not far away now.


----------



## CityIndex

Trader X said:


> So FTX almost collapsed and needed rival Binance to bail them out.  How long before the entire crypto house of cards inevitably comes crashing down seems not far away now.



New reports are suggesting that Binance has now exited from the FTX deal. Bitcoin is already down over 20% this week alone, and currently looks to be extending losses on this news. 

The relatively flat trading in the past few weeks may have been a signal that the crypto market was gearing up for a large move, and this news seems to have triggered it to the downside. All trading carries risk, but from a technical standpoint, it is hard to see where the next line of support may come in.


----------



## Trader X

Hard to believe that a power couple (now ex-couple) like the Brady bunch would go all-in on FTX, incredible financial folly.








						Tom Brady, Gisele Bündchen at risk of losing $650M investment in FTX
					

Tom Brady and Gisele Bündchen's $650 million FTX stake may see the two lose a major chunk of their net worth mid Binance buy-out.




					cryptoslate.com


----------



## mullokintyre

Trader X said:


> Hard to believe that a power couple (now ex-couple) like the Brady bunch would go all-in on FTX, incredible financial folly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tom Brady, Gisele Bündchen at risk of losing $650M investment in FTX
> 
> 
> Tom Brady and Gisele Bündchen's $650 million FTX stake may see the two lose a major chunk of their net worth mid Binance buy-out.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cryptoslate.com



maybe  one sides financial risk taking is  the reason why they are now an ex couple.
mick


----------



## The Triangle

Trader X said:


> Hard to believe that a power couple (now ex-couple) like the Brady bunch would go all-in on FTX, incredible financial folly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tom Brady, Gisele Bündchen at risk of losing $650M investment in FTX
> 
> 
> Tom Brady and Gisele Bündchen's $650 million FTX stake may see the two lose a major chunk of their net worth mid Binance buy-out.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cryptoslate.com



Can't imagine TB or Giselle having the time to work out their own finances.  All these American athletes have business managers who manage their finances.  Very rarely do they do it themselves.   They also both still earn $40+ million a year. 

One of the articles I saw this week also said a number of Canadian government pensions were burnt as well.   I've said here multiple times crypto is the biggest fraud/scam in human history.  What on earth are massive pension/superannuation/public investment managers doing investing other peoples money in garbage like this?

I have met plenty of people who have invested in crypto but still to this day I have not met anyone I consider a financially literate who has invested money in crypto.  Any funny enough just like junior explorers or horses, everyone I talk to claims to have made money on their crypto.


----------



## Trader X

The Triangle said:


> Can't imagine TB or Giselle having the time to work out their own finances. All these American athletes have business managers who manage their finances. Very rarely do they do it themselves. They also both still earn $40+ million a year.



Well yes, but what competent financial or business manager would recommend such a huge stake in FTX?  No doubt they will be live quite comfortably regardless of the FTX investment debacle.




The Triangle said:


> I have met plenty of people who have invested in crypto but still to this day I have not met anyone I consider a financially literate who has invested money in crypto.



Financial literacy aside, it was always the extreme hubris that's been most annoying.  The mere suggestion to the crypto crowd that perhaps crypto is just a fad, promoted by pump and dump merchants with its price pure speculation supported by hopium and the bigger fool principle would usually garner dismissive remarks like "just stay poor".  The music stopped a year ago for Bitcoin, -75% later and now it's clear who is going to the poor house, crypto speculators and hodlers.


----------



## waterbottle

Binance has pulled out of the acquisition. RIP FTX. 

Binance statement in full after not acquiring FTX

As a Result of Corporate Due Diligence, as Well as the Latest News Reports Regarding Mishandled Customer Funds and Alleged US Agency Investigations. We Have Decided That We Will Not Pursue the Potential Acquisition of FTX.com.

In the Beginning, Our Hope Was to Be Able to Support FTX's Customers to Provide Liquidity, but the Issues Are Beyond Our Control or Ability to Help. Every Time a Major Player in an Industry Fails, Retail Consumers Will

Suffer. We Have Seen Over the Last Several Years That the Crypto

Ecosystem Is Becoming More Resilient and We Believe in Time That

Outliers That Misuse User Funds Will Be Weeded Out by the Free

Market.

As Regulatory Frameworks Are Developed and as the Industry Continues to Evolve Toward Greater Decentralization, the Ecosystem Will Grow Stronger.


----------



## Trader X

waterbottle said:


> As Regulatory Frameworks Are Developed and as the Industry Continues to Evolve Toward Greater Decentralization, the Ecosystem Will Grow Stronger.



Remains to be seen if the "Ecosystem Will Grow Stronger" or crumble.









						Binance Pulls Out of Deal to Acquire Rival Crypto Exchange FTX
					

The rapid collapse of FTX, built by the billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, suggests that no company in the freewheeling, loosely regulated crypto industry is safe.




					www.nytimes.com
				




Interesting quote from this article...
_*“This episode highlights the vulnerability of the entire crypto edifice,” said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economics professor. “Even large and apparently financially solid institutions turn out to have fragile and shaky foundations that crumble at the least hint of trouble.”*_


----------



## The Triangle

Trader X said:


> Well yes, but what competent financial or business manager would recommend such a huge stake in FTX?  No doubt they will be live quite comfortably regardless of the FTX investment debacle.



Same as a managers for all the funds around the world making the same investment.  

"it's not my fault, everyone else made the same investment"


----------



## CityIndex

Not sure if this was already mentioned, but might be worth noting that the all-time-highs in Bitcoin occurred exactly 12 months ago today. It’s now down over 77% since.

In that time, people have gone from calling $100K as the next price target to be hit in a matter of months, if not weeks, to some floating their opinions online today that this may be the end for cryptos.

Quite a bold statement to make, and it seems like an unlikely outcome at this point. But it will be interesting to see what the next development in this story is, and how things unfold in the upcoming 12 months.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

CityIndex said:


> Not sure if this was already mentioned, but might be worth noting that the all-time-highs in Bitcoin occurred exactly 12 months ago today. It’s now down over 77% since.
> 
> In that time, people have gone from calling $100K as the next price target to be hit in a matter of months, if not weeks, to some floating their opinions online today that this may be the end for cryptos.
> 
> Quite a bold statement to make, and it seems like an unlikely outcome at this point. But it will be interesting to see what the next development in this story is, and how things unfold in the upcoming 12 months.



It looks like the "smart" money is bailing out. 

What a dreadfully depressing chart for BTC holders. 




gg


----------



## CityIndex

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It looks like the "smart" money is bailing out.



It will actually be quite interesting to see how the fallout of this impacts the institutional traders who were getting into the space, as it may be a pretty significant deterrent.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It looks like the "smart" money is bailing
> 
> gg



FTX’s share registry includes two of the institutions that have become synonymous with the irrational froth of the past few years, namely Japan’s *SoftBank *and US crossover fund *Tiger Globall*. It also attracted capital from some of the biggest names in global investing: passive investing giants *BlackRock *and *VanEck*, venture capital icon *Sequoia *and local giant *Telstra Ventures*, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund *Temasek *and one of Canada’s pension fund giants, the *Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan.*


In September, OTPP chief executive Jo Taylor told Reuters that he felt the fund had found the lowest-risk way to play in the *crypto sector*, because of the role FTX played in the market.


> “I_n terms of the risk profile, it is probably the lowest risk profile you can have in that it’s everybody else is trading on your platform_.”




Smarting money, more like.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> FTX’s share registry includes two of the institutions that have become synonymous with the irrational froth of the past few years, namely Japan’s *SoftBank *and US crossover fund *Tiger Globall*. It also attracted capital from some of the biggest names in global investing: passive investing giants *BlackRock *and *VanEck*, venture capital icon *Sequoia *and local giant *Telstra Ventures*, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund *Temasek *and one of Canada’s pension fund giants, the *Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan.*
> 
> 
> In September, OTPP chief executive Jo Taylor told Reuters that he felt the fund had found the lowest-risk way to play in the *crypto sector*, because of the role FTX played in the market.
> 
> 
> Smarting money, more like.



Unfortunately, as with our Industry Super Funds it is not all that difficult to become a board member of outfits like OTPP even though they manage hundreds of billions of $CAN.

Intelligence or aptitude for changing markets is not a requirement. 

Just pass the Institute of Company Directors examinations, know a few people who you've given the nod to, keep your nose clean, parrot the risk and benefits metrics, be able to read a financial report, don't proposition the young lady or gentleman at reception, and you are on. 

FTX.!!!   lol.

gg


----------



## noirua

El Salvador says China offered to buy all its foreign debt as the nation looks to avoid default
					

"China has offered to buy all our debt, but we need to tread carefully," Vice President Felix Ulloa told Bloomberg.




					markets.businessinsider.com
				



But in January, Moody's warned that El Salvador's bitcoin buying spree may boost the country's credit risk if it continues. The country's government, has had liquidity issues in the past, making trading bitcoin "quite risky," Moody's analyst Jaime Reusche told Bloomberg in an interview.


----------



## noirua

Max Keiser wont give way on Bitcoin and will not admit he's lost well over $200 million from the high around $67,000.

9 November 2022


----------



## Trader X

noirua said:


> Max Keiser wont give way on Bitcoin and will not admit he's lost well over $200 million from the high around $67,000



The usual banter from maximalists, Bitcoin is the only legit ctypto network and everything else is sh$tcoin. Both Klippsten and Keiser are both in total denial about the failure of BTC as legal tender in El Salvador bordering on being delusional.

Keiser, like Mike Saylor, Anthony Pompliano, Mark Moss et al will go down in history as influential purveyors of Bitcoin hyperbole who led millions into the crypto financial abyss.  Bitcoin could retreat to $500 and they would still be extolling its virtues and forecasting a bright future for it, even though the only thing that's really dematerialized is speculator's money.


----------



## moXJO

Bitcoin is a casino people.

Once a bit of enthusiasm starts coming back and the multi baggers start getting reported-
Greed gets the next bunch of degens.

No one seems interested in crypto right now because inflation popped their dreams.
If we see inflation tamed we might see life again, but not before.

There's no interest in coins. Nft is still building out though and web3 is developing. But they are the true believers.

We might get a spark these next few weeks. But I wasn't counting on next year going that well.


----------



## JohnDe

CityIndex said:


> It will actually be quite interesting to see how the fallout of this impacts the institutional traders who were getting into the space, as it may be a pretty significant deterrent.




It definitely won't be good.



> *The spectacular fall of FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried*
> Another serious blow to crypto’s reputation
> 
> Last week Sam Bankman-Fried was the most important person in crypto. The floppy-haired 30-year-old former billionaire, who goes by sbf, is the founder of ftx, then the industry’s third-largest exchange. When crypto prices collapsed earlier this year he swooped in with loans for Voyager and BlockFi, handing the lending ventures hundreds of millions of dollars, and snapped up assets from Three Arrows, a crypto hedge fund. Many saw a new John Pierpont Morgan, the banker who saved the American financial system in 1907.
> 
> Mr Bankman-Fried also spent millions of dollars from his vast fortune, worth $26bn at its peak, supporting political campaigns on crypto regulation. He planned to give away much of the rest, having endorsed effective altruism, a movement that espouses charitable giving to safeguard humanity’s future. Politically engaged, seemingly altruistic, decidedly not a crypto bro: many thought sbf was the man who could save the industry from itself, a reputation he hardly discouraged.
> 
> 
> 
> Oh, how the mighty have fallen. After rumours ftx might be insufficiently liquid began to swirl, customers pulled $650m of assets from the exchange on November 7th, before it stopped meeting requests. The value of an ftx Token, a mechanism for sharing the firm’s profits, has fallen by 90% since November 4th (see chart). On November 8th Mr Bankman-Fried and Changpeng Zhao, the boss of Binance, the biggest crypto exchange, announced that Mr Zhao’s firm had signed a letter of intent to buy ftx. Then the next day Binance pulled out, after having taken a look at ftx’s books. Mr Bankman-Fried is reported to have told investors that ftx faces an $8bn shortfall and that it will, without more capital, go bankrupt. According to Bloomberg Wealth, he is now worth less than $1bn, a drop of 94%—the biggest single-day fall on record.
> 
> The carnage is spreading to other parts of the industry. Bitcoin has tumbled by 19% since November 8th, to $16,600 at the time of writing. The importance of ftx for the wider ecosystem is such that JPMorgan Chase, a bank, has warned crypto markets could face a “cascade” of deleveraging and company failures, and that there is a shrinking pool of strong institutions able to step in to rescue those in trouble. The reputational damage to the industry looks likely to be profound.
> 
> What on earth happened? Two stories circulated, both a touch Shakespearean. The first is one of rivalry and the second of hubris. Start with the rivalry between Mr Bankman-Fried and Mr Zhao. Mr Bankman-Fried owns three firms: ftx, a global exchange; ftx.us, an American exchange; and Alameda Research, a crypto-trading fund. In theory, these are separate entities. But the connection between Alameda and ftx has long been unclear. On November 2nd CoinDesk, a news website, reported that tokens issued by ftx made up two-fifths of Alameda’s assets, and were worth $5.8bn. That sum was almost double the market capitalisation of the tokens, and a slice was marked as collateral, raising concerns that Alameda had borrowed against them, possibly from ftx itself. Apparently in response, Mr Zhao tweeted he would liquidate Binance’s holdings of ftx tokens, then worth over half a billion dollars.
> 
> That he later moved to snap up the firm led many to believe he had orchestrated the chaos—casting doubt on ftx in order to set off a fire sale. It seemed a plausible story. There is little love lost between Mr Bankman-Fried and the less-celebrated Mr Zhao. The Binance boss has long claimed his firm is headquartered “nowhere”. It is banned from providing some services in countries including Britain, owing to a lack of information about compliance with regulations. Mr Bankman-Fried has reportedly goaded Mr Zhao about this.
> 
> But the apparent size of the hole in ftx’s balance-sheet indicates problems ran far deeper than a rival starting rumours. The details of what went wrong in the beanbag-strewn offices of ftx and Alameda are not yet clear. An exchange, which sits between buyer and seller and takes a spread, should not be an easy business to bankrupt. It is not typically exposed to runs, since it merely holds assets on behalf of investors.
> 
> Problems can emerge, though, when such firms make loans, allowing customers to buy “on margin”, or lend out crypto tokens they hold on behalf of investors in exchange for collateral, like cash or other tokens. ftx seems to have allowed Alameda to borrow customers’ assets by posting ftx tokens (issued by the exchange itself) as collateral. As ftx tokens fell in value, the firm no longer had enough assets to cover the liabilities it owed to customers, causing a downward spiral. In coming up with its wealth estimates, Bloomberg assumes both Alameda and ftx are now worth just $1. Sequoia, a venture-capital firm, has told investors it has written down its stake in the exchange to zero.
> 
> Reports on November 9th suggested that the Securities and Exchange Commission, America’s top financial regulator, had months ago launched a probe into ftx’s handling of funds, as well as the connections between Mr Bankman-Fried’s firms. America’s Justice Department is also reported to be investigating the firm. ftx has not yet commented on either story.
> 
> The fallout will have wider consequences. The crypto winter had previously claimed only the types of victims that would be expected, including a poorly designed stablecoin, a hedge fund and several platforms that made risky loans. That it has come for ftx, a well-regarded business, and Mr Bankman-Fried is an enormous blow. It has left other institutions scrambling to reassure customers. Coinbase, a large exchange, has sent out reassuring missives to the press. Its share price has nevertheless shed a fifth of its value in recent days, and is close to all-time lows.
> 
> The collapse of ftx may be enough to reverse the embrace of crypto by institutions, ordinary folk and the occasional government. Institutional investors including Temasek, a Singaporean wealth fund; SoftBank, a Japanese tech-investing group; and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, a Canadian fund, had all dipped their toes into the industry by buying stakes in ftx. Legislators will now eye crypto with even deeper suspicion. Whatever the precise cause of ftx’s implosion, the story is already a tragedy for the industry.


----------



## moXJO

moXJO said:


> We might get a spark these next few weeks.



STACKS ON!!!!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

This is what is known as capitulation. 

I'll be interested to see it go South forever at 12.31 am AEST Tuesday morning.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Anders Åslund is well worth a follow on Twitter.

gg


----------



## mullokintyre

I am not certain about the prohibition part, its not illegal, or should not be to invest in cryptos.
They are no different to CFD's, CDOs', and other exotic financial derivitives.
They have no intrinsic value or use in themselves.
Just like investing in anything else, you take your chances, the bigger the risk, the bigger the expected returns.
It is not possible to eliminate greed and/or stupidity.
The idea behind the original crypto, Bitcoin,  is the distributed ledger  and a is neat piece of  thinking.
Unfortunately, most of the money in crypto has been made and lost.
Mick


----------



## Trader X

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Anders Åslund is well worth a follow on Twitter.
> 
> gg
> View attachment 149110



All true but with one important caveat.  The public beta testing of all these flawed, unregulated crypto projects has given central banks and planners a blueprint for the introduction of CBDC.  So crypto will become real currency in the form of CBDCs with all the controls, manipulation and monitoring that comes with it. 

Weary of the unregulated crypto casino?  Then place your confidence in CBDC, after all who better to trust than your central bank.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

> "A lot of people have compared this to Lehman. I would compare it to Enron,"



 says Larry Summers ( @LHSummers ) about the FTX meltdown.


----------



## Trader X

Public announcement to FTX customers...


----------



## Trader X

One of the better explanations of the FTX bankruptcy I have seen so far...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

From the FT.

Hedge Funds caught in FTX collapse. 



> Galois Capital, a hedge fund whose founder is credited with spotting the collapse of cryptocurrency luna this year, has been caught off guard after close to half its assets were left trapped on crypto exchange FTX, which filed for bankruptcy protection on Friday. Galois co-founder Kevin Zhou wrote to investors in recent days, in a letter seen by the Financial Times, that while the fund had been able to pull some money from the exchange, it still had “roughly half of our capital stuck on FTX”. Based on Galois’s assets under management as of June, that could amount to around $100mn. “I am deeply sorry that we find ourselves in this current situation,” wrote Zhou. “We will work tirelessly to maximise our chances of recovering stuck capital by any means.” He added that it could take “a few years” to recover “some percentage” of its assets. FTX on Friday said Sam Bankman-Fried was resigning as chief executive, after failing in a last-ditch effort to secure a rescue package. It follows a tumultuous week in which the exchange admitted it was unable to meet customer withdrawal demands without external funds, raising fears that clients could face big losses. FTX’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in a federal court in Delaware includes FTX’s US entity, Bankman-Fried’s proprietary trading group Alameda Research and about 130 affiliated companies. His empire was valued at $32bn just months ago. Industry insiders say that the fact FTX was used by so many hedge funds and seen as one of the world’s safer crypto trading venues means many managers may have money stuck on the exchange. Galois did not immediately respond to a request for comment.




Where goes one, there go all is a motto of Hedge Funds. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Hedge Funds caught in FTX collapse.
> 
> Where goes one, there go all is a motto of Hedge Funds.
> 
> gg



 "_Shocked, shocked_" - Captain Renault in _Casablanca_


----------



## The Triangle

Garpal Gumnut said:


> From the FT.
> 
> Hedge Funds caught in FTX collapse.
> 
> 
> 
> Where goes one, there go all is a motto of Hedge Funds.
> 
> gg



Not just hedge funds.   A lotta people were banking on payments from FTX.   Why wouldn't you trust a company headquartered in the Bahamas?








						Heat to cut ties with bankrupt FTX, rename arena
					

The Miami Heat have decided to terminate their relationship with the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, which filed for bankruptcy Friday.




					www.espn.com.au
				



_After an initial balloon payment of $14 million, FTX was scheduled to make a $5.5 million payment in January

The deal in Miami was one of a number of sports marketing deals FTX had signed over the past few years, including sponsorship deals with the Golden State Warriors and Washington Wizards. Among top athletes who had FTX deals included Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, Warriors guard Stephen Curry and tennis star Naomi Osaka.

FTX also entered into a deal with Mercedes for Formula One racing and a sponsorship deal with Major League Baseball, whose umpires wear the company's logo. Earlier Friday, Mercedes said it would immediately remove FTX logos from its Formula One cars._

We've got crypto sponsoring tier 1 American sports teams.    We've got celebrities getting paid to push (and prosecuted) crypto.  Can't recall Hugh Jackman doing commercials for the Aussie dollar or seeing the "AUD Arena" anywhere.   Crypto will always have a place for drug trafficking, pedophiles, and organized crime, but it shouldn't have a place in regular society for regular people.


----------



## bluekelah

Still have a few more key players yet to fall out, Microstrategy and Binance to name a couple


----------



## Dona Ferentes

The Triangle said:


> Not just hedge funds.   ...._The deal in Miami was one of a number of sports marketing deals FTX had signed over the past few years, including sponsorship deals with the Golden State Warriors and Washington Wizards. Among top athletes who had FTX deals included Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, Warriors guard Stephen Curry and tennis star Naomi Osaka.
> 
> FTX also entered into a deal with Mercedes for Formula One racing and a sponsorship deal with Major League Baseball, whose umpires wear the company's logo. Earlier Friday, Mercedes said it would immediately remove FTX logos from its Formula One cars._
> 
> ................ Crypto will always have a place for drug trafficking, pedophiles, and organized crime, but it shouldn't have a place in regular society for regular people.



Not forgetting the political donations by FTX boss. That's a lot of _other people's moolah_


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> Not forgetting the political donations by FTX boss. That's a lot of _other people's moolah_
> 
> View attachment 149175



It looks like our Monthly Competition graph. 

And I have the same colour as George Soros. 

I expect to be in the same position as ole George with CVN this month. 😀

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It looks like our Monthly Competition graph.
> 
> And I have the same colour as George Soros.
> 
> I expect to be in the same position as ole George with CVN this month. 😀
> 
> gg



How's FMG doing?


----------



## noirua

Salvadoran President Bukele says Bitcoin is ‘the opposite‘ of FTX
					

“FTX is the opposite of Bitcoin,” said President Bukele while explaining the inner workings of the Bitcoin protocol.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## qldfrog

Trader X said:


> Public announcement to FTX customers...
> 
> View attachment 149143



I resent the use of the frog image, i am in no way..... LoL 😂


----------



## qldfrog

Going back to basics, i expect more exchanges to fail.
I kept a few BTC bits and pieces, i actually got less than I thought but that might not be so bad..
Some were still stored in my exchange,but following the fall in btc value, i moved these onto my own digital vault.
I somewhat think many owners might have done this too..or should.
And this can trigger a snowball effect, removing the lifeblood of various crypto exchanges in the process..
Exchanges fall, cryptos fall, users get out of exchanges/cryptos,and loop back.
A trust issue ..similar to what we might see coming for fiats once a few banks collapse.
I can easily store a few k of BTC on a memory stick, but not so easy to bring back home wads of cash for your savings...


----------



## rcw1

Good morning
Reported this morning (15/11/22):

Roughly three-quarters of people who have bought bitcoin have lost money according to a study published overnight as the cryptocurrency sector reels from the collapse of a major exchange that has sapped confidence.  Economists at the Bank of International Settlements analysed data on investors in cryptocurrencies in 95 countries between 2015 and 2022.

“Overall, back of the envelope calculations suggest that around three-quarters of users have lost money on their bitcoin investments,” they said in their study.

During the period studied, the price of bitcoin rose from $US250 in August 2015 to peak at nearly $US69,000 in November 2021. It is now trading at around $US16,500.  The number of people using smartphone apps allowing one to purchase and sell cryptocurrencies rose from 119,000 to 32.5 million during the same period.

“Our analysis has shown that, around the world, bitcoin price increases have been tied to greater entry by retail investors,” the researchers wrote.  Moreover, they said they found that “as prices were rising and smaller users were buying bitcoin, the largest holders (the so-called ‘whales’ or ‘humpbacks’) were selling – making a return at the smaller users’ expense.”

The researchers did not have direct data on the gains or losses of individual investors.

However, they were able to extrapolate based on the price of bitcoin when new investors began using cryptocurrency trading apps and the approximately $US20,000 it was worth last month.

The study also found that the biggest segment of new cryptocurrency investors, at roughly 40 per cent, were men under 35, and who are commonly identified as the most “risk-seeking” segment of the population


----------



## qldfrog

rcw1 said:


> Good morning
> Reported this morning (15/11/22):
> 
> Roughly three-quarters of people who have bought bitcoin have lost money according to a study published overnight as the cryptocurrency sector reels from the collapse of a major exchange that has sapped confidence.  Economists at the Bank of International Settlements analysed data on investors in cryptocurrencies in 95 countries between 2015 and 2022.
> 
> “Overall, back of the envelope calculations suggest that around three-quarters of users have lost money on their bitcoin investments,” they said in their study.
> 
> During the period studied, the price of bitcoin rose from $US250 in August 2015 to peak at nearly $US69,000 in November 2021. It is now trading at around $US16,500.  The number of people using smartphone apps allowing one to purchase and sell cryptocurrencies rose from 119,000 to 32.5 million during the same period.
> 
> “Our analysis has shown that, around the world, bitcoin price increases have been tied to greater entry by retail investors,” the researchers wrote.  Moreover, they said they found that “as prices were rising and smaller users were buying bitcoin, the largest holders (the so-called ‘whales’ or ‘humpbacks’) were selling – making a return at the smaller users’ expense.”
> 
> The researchers did not have direct data on the gains or losses of individual investors.
> 
> However, they were able to extrapolate based on the price of bitcoin when new investors began using cryptocurrency trading apps and the approximately $US20,000 it was worth last month.
> 
> The study also found that the biggest segment of new cryptocurrency investors, at roughly 40 per cent, were men under 35, and who are commonly identified as the most “risk-seeking” segment of the population



To be honest, i am not sure where i stand overall, i did a big profit initially,then tried to trade TBC and a few mainstream crypto..a few coins but not that much and now: what is left of my cryptography path ( just BTC now) is at a loss as BTC goes down .
Would be interesting to do the total sum and see if i am ahead i would think so but no private jet life


----------



## Dona Ferentes

qldfrog said:


> Going back to basics, i expect more exchanges to fail.



Hong Kong’s AAX exchange has suspended trading for 10 days, citing the failure of an unidentified third-party partner.

Cronos, the token underpinning the Crypto.com business, has fallen 25 per cent in the past 24 hours, and 98 per cent of all transactions made on the Cronos blockchain on Monday were withdrawal


----------



## rcw1

qldfrog said:


> To be honest, i am not sure where i stand overall, i did a big profit initially,then tried to trade TBC and a few mainstream crypto..a few coins but not that much and now: what is left of my cryptography path ( just BTC now) is at a loss as BTC goes down .
> Would be interesting to do the total sum and see if i am ahead i would think so but no private jet life



Good morning qldfrog
Hoping find you well.  rcw1 stayed away from investing/trading in crypto thingies, have enough vices.   ha ha ha ha 
But do keep abreast of developments in this space.
Good fortune with your stake in this one.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## qldfrog

rcw1 said:


> Good morning qldfrog
> Hoping find you well.  rcw1 stayed away from investing/trading in crypto thingies, have enough vices.   ha ha ha ha
> But do keep abreast of developments in this space.
> Good fortune with your stake in this one.
> 
> Have a very nice day, today.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



I have less than half a BTC left..just leftover and in case it ever becomes a 1 mil per btc...
Keeping it under the bed, will see in a few years


----------



## Trader X

Dona Ferentes said:


> Hong Kong’s AAX exchange has suspended trading for 10 days, citing the failure of an unidentified third-party partner.



AAX in damage control, no doubt their clients are waiting to press the exit button when they lift the suspension.

_"Taking to Twitter, AAX vice president Ben Caselin said: "Bad timing for a scheduled maintenance at @AAXExchange, *aimed to address serious vulnerabilities* and given the already fearful circumstances in industry, opening up will require some caution and will be gradual, as sentiment cools."_


----------



## Trader X

Very unlikely that Aussie clients will recover much if anything from the FTX global collapse...









						At least 30,000 Australians trying to claw back FTX losses
					

FTX Australia administrators are working to secure the assets of 30,000 Australian investors exposed to the dramatic collapse of global crypto trading platform FTX last week.




					www.afr.com


----------



## bluekelah

qldfrog said:


> Going back to basics, i expect more exchanges to fail.
> I kept a few BTC bits and pieces, i actually got less than I thought but that might not be so bad..
> Some were still stored in my exchange,but following the fall in btc value, i moved these onto my own digital vault.
> I somewhat think many owners might have done this too..or should.
> And this can trigger a snowball effect, removing the lifeblood of various crypto exchanges in the process..
> Exchanges fall, cryptos fall, users get out of exchanges/cryptos,and loop back.
> A trust issue ..similar to what we might see coming for fiats once a few banks collapse.
> I can easily store a few k of BTC on a memory stick, but not so easy to bring back home wads of cash for your savings...



It's very easy to keep gold coins and bars. A 10oz gold bar the size of a car remote is easily 26kaud now.  and a 1oz gold coin/Bar size of memory stick,  worth 2.6k can easily be kept and hidden. That's what I do for insurance  don't need electricity or internet either to use it.


I believe many folks have lost their trust in crypto exchanges and will likely move their assets to cold wallets. However this means the float available for crypto trading will nosedive and cause the market to become quite illiquid. This will exacerbate price falls. Especially if liquidators have large amounts of btc to liquidate. When the digital asset in the wallets go down in value, more and more folks will eventually turn to gold and other PMs.


----------



## qldfrog

bluekelah said:


> It's very easy to keep gold coins and bars. A 10oz gold bar the size of a car remote is easily 26kaud now.  and a 1oz gold coin/Bar size of memory stick,  worth 2.6k can easily be kept and hidden. That's what I do for insurance  don't need electricity or internet either to use it.
> 
> 
> I believe many folks have lost their trust in crypto exchanges and will likely move their assets to cold wallets. However this means the float available for crypto trading will nosedive and cause the market to become quite illiquid. This will exacerbate price falls. Especially if liquidators have large amounts of btc to liquidate. When the digital asset in the wallets go down in value, more and more folks will eventually turn to gold and other PMs.



I hope so as i am a strong believer in PM.i hope crypto bull reading this will at least moved their coins onto their own wallets.it is one thing to see BTC fall, quite another to see the whole  wallet diseappear


----------



## bluekelah

qldfrog said:


> I hope so as i am a strong believer in PM.i hope crypto bull reading this will at least moved their coins onto their own wallets.it is one thing to see BTC fall, quite another to see the whole  wallet diseappear



Not sure if posted before but probably too late for those aussies with FTX accounts ~30k estimated accounts. 
The fallout will probably be felt globally. Bitcoin prices seem to be propped up at 16.7k region though past few days, one would think such a big event would cause a much bigger crash in the market...









						At least 30,000 Australians trying to claw back FTX losses
					

FTX Australia administrators are working to secure the assets of 30,000 Australian investors exposed to the dramatic collapse of global crypto trading platform FTX last week.




					www.afr.com


----------



## rcw1

Good morning

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission suspends the Australian financial services license of FTX Australia after it entered voluntary administration last week.

FTX Australia’s licence permitted it to deal in, make a market for and provide general advice relating to derivatives and foreign exchange contracts to retail and wholesale clients. It can keep giving limited financial services that relate to the termination of existing derivatives with clients until 19 December 2022. the regulator says.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## basilio

Axios has a number of articles on the collapse of FTX. This one is probably the most critical.

The week the crypto dream died​



Felix Salmon, author of Axios Markets



Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios

Never in business history has there been a more abrupt heel turn than the one we saw from Sam Bankman-Fried — or SBF, as he's universally known — over the past week.
*Why it matters: *The crypto world has seen large financial losses before, and will see them again; it's notoriously rife with ponzis, frauds and rug-pulls. If the collapse of SBF's crypto exchange, FTX, caused nothing but financial losses, that would be bad but not unprecedented.

FTX is much more systemically important to the crypto ecosystem, however, than its size alone would suggest.
*The big picture:* The story of SBF and FTX is a story of how all financial systems — even one built on a bedrock of mistrust — end up creating trusted centralized counterparties.

It now looks likely that SBF — arguably the most trusted man in crypto — will turn out to have been a crook who was embezzling his own customers' funds.
If that's the case, then lawmakers will have every reason to ignore industry pleas for special regulatory treatment. It might be many years, if ever, before crypto entrepreneurs have any hope they'll be treated as though they're responsible and law-abiding.
*The bottom line: *SBF's stated dream — and that of most other crypto entrepreneurs — was for the industry to improve upon and supplant the world's existing financial infrastructure.

That dream is now dead.
*State of play: *There's still a lot we don't know about what happened at FTX and at SBF's hedge fund, Alameda Research. But the big picture seems to be that Alameda was not nearly as consistently profitable as it had suggested.

Alameda did substantially all of its trading on FTX. If it consistently lost money on those trades, then everybody else on the exchange, in aggregate, would have considered themselves to be making money.
*💭 Felix's thought bubble: *Since traders flock to where the profit opportunities are best, that could drive a huge amount of volume to FTX (read more on this theory). Those volumes, in turn, underpinned the mathematics that ended up with the exchange being valued at $32 billion by Silicon Valley venture capitalists.

When that happened, the valuation of FTX — not to mention the market value of its associated exchange token, FTT — was rising much more quickly than any hole in Alameda's balance sheet.
*The catch: *The hole in Alameda's balance sheet still needed to be filled somehow, and it reportedly ended up being filled with client funds from FTX. So when those clients started asking for their money back, they discovered it wasn't there.

*And an exchange that won't give clients their money back is worthless.*








						The week the crypto dream died
					

FTX, SBF and the week the crypto dream died




					www.axios.com


----------



## Tyre Kicker

… surely this is now enough for people to work out the scam that crypto really is.

Surely?

It’s laughable the amount of money that has poured in to something worth nothing.

The power of social media and mass marketing to the those living life through their phones is freaking alarming.


----------



## rcw1

Good morning
Has been reported today (17/11/22):

High-profile US sports stars and personalities have been named in a lawsuit over deceptive practices targeting investors who became victims of the stunning collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX.   The celebrities helped promote the exchange, which declared bankruptcy in the US last week in a meltdown that has reverberated across the digital currency landscape and drawn scrutiny from authorities in multiple countries.

US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen was the latest official to call for more oversight of the crypto industry.
American football star Tom Brady and his supermodel ex-wife Gisele Bundchen, retired basketball great Shaquille O’Neal, tennis Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka, actor/comedian Larry David, and Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary were among those named alongside FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried in the suit filed in Miami federal court overnight.

Investor Edwin Garrison, of Oklahoma, filed the suit in a Miami court on behalf of other investors, seeking to recover damages from losses suffered in the FTX implosion, accusing the company of “misrepresentations and omissions.”
“FTX’s fraudulent scheme was designed to take advantage of unsophisticated investors from across the country,” the lawsuit alleges.

Will no doubt open a ' can of worms'.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## noirua

https://beincrypto.com/genesis-gemini-suspend-withdrawals-ftx-contagion/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
		


Genesis Global Capital Suspends Withdrawals As FTX Contagion Spreads
By David Thomas
16 November 2022​​


----------



## noirua

El Salvador Trolls Crypto Critics and Vows to Keep on Buying Bitcoin
					

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced that the country would start buying Bitcoin on a daily basis from November 18.




					beincrypto.com


----------



## mullokintyre

noirua said:


> El Salvador Trolls Crypto Critics and Vows to Keep on Buying Bitcoin
> 
> 
> El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced that the country would start buying Bitcoin on a daily basis from November 18.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> beincrypto.com



l Salvador President Nayib Bukele said the country would buy one Bitcoin per day from tomorrow.
At least he is averaging down.
Mick


----------



## rcw1

Good morning,

The chief executive tasked with restructuring FTX says the crypto exchange exhibited a ‘complete failure of corporate controls', The Wall Street Journal reports.

Former Enron chief John Ray, who has helped oversee some of the biggest bankruptcies ever, including Enron’s, said in a filing to the US federal bankruptcy court that he’s never seen anything as bad in 40 years of restructuring firms.

He wrote that the company can’t trust prior financial information produced by founder and former chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried.

"Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here,” he said in the filing.

"From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented.”

– The Wall Street Journal


----------



## Trader X

mullokintyre said:


> El Salvador President Nayib Bukele said the country would buy one Bitcoin per day from tomorrow.
> At least he is averaging down.



Known as the Martingale Strategy...

*"It is considered a risky method of investing*_. It is based on the theory of increasing the amount allocated for investments, even if its value is falling, in expectation of a future increase. When the Martingale Strategy is used in betting, the gambler must double the bet when faced with a loss."_

Question is where is the money (USD) coming from?  USD reserves, borrowed, volcano bonds?


----------



## againsthegrain

mullokintyre said:


> l Salvador President Nayib Bukele said the country would buy one Bitcoin per day from tomorrow.
> At least he is averaging down.
> Mick





they can afford 2btc per day now come on, they were happily buying at 50-90k. Go hard or nothing


----------



## Belli

El Salvador not all that flash on GDP per capita.









						Countries ranked by GDP per capita (current US$) - Central America & the Caribbean
					





					www.indexmundi.com


----------



## Trader X

Scathing critique of the latest tweets by SBF, incredible how the head of a multi-billion dollar crypto casino can be so naïve...


----------



## noirua

www.decrypt.co/114897/el-salvador-start-buying-1-bitcoin-every-day-says-president-bukele​El Salvador to Start Buying 1 Bitcoin Every Day Says President Bukele​Nov 17, 2022


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Bitcoin -5.2% to $US15,692 at 7am AEDT
Shares in listed US crypto exchange Coinbase hit a record low of $US40.61 overnight as bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies sunk again. The stock finished down 8.9 per cent at $US41.23 despite renewed buying from Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest.
The world’s largest bitcoin fund, the US based Grayscale Investment Trust, is trading at an approximate 45 per cent discount to its net asset value after it refused to conduct a proof of reserves audit. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is now down 81.4 per cent over the past year. The trust owns more than 600,000 bitcoin on behalf of investors.
Australian founded bitcoin miner Iris Energy plunged 18 per cent to a record low of $1.52. It’s now down 95 per cent since listing at $US28 per share last November


----------



## JohnDe

Bankruptcy Filings Reveal Gross Mismanagement At FTX​​

By Frank Downing | @downingARK
Director of Research, Next Generation Internet​Initial filings reveal damning evidence that now-bankrupt crypto exchange FTX misappropriated both investor and customer funds. John Ray, FTX’s bankruptcy expert who oversaw the Enron case, described the “unprecedented” situation. Revelations include the absence of trustworthy financial information, use of corporate funds to purchase personal property, and large personal loans including $1 billion to CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and $543 million to Director of Engineering Nishad Singh.

In the wake of SBF’s bizarre and somewhat self-aggrandizing tweets, FTX’s new management released a statement that the former CEO was no longer acting on behalf of the company. More damning, a series of SBF’s Twitter DM’s with a Vox reporter exposed his true character: prior political donations and advocacy in Washington were “just PR”; regulators “don’t protect customers at all”; his biggest mistake was filing for bankruptcy, and “everything would be ~70% fixed” if he hadn’t. SBF also seemed to suggest that winning by any means is better than being clean and losing.

In response to the FTX bankruptcy, contagion spread, forcing institutional lender Genesis to pause customer withdrawals and curtail its retail crypto lending product. We expect other counterparties to surface as more details surrounding FTX and Alameda’s dealings emerge.
That said, our conviction in decentralized and transparent public blockchains is as strong as ever. In this case and others, decentralization and transparency are paramount as antidotes to the gross mismanagement associated with centralized intermediaries, not to mention fraudulent centralized intermediaries.​


*FOUR SILOS FOR RECOVERY PURPOSES*


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I had a quick look at the BTC chart over the past year or more and it’s been falling in $USD10k increments from $USD70k. 

So I guess next stop is $USD10k. 

$USD15k will not hold at these volumes. 

gg


----------



## Tyre Kicker

El Salvador’s President should get a bit serious and buy up a heap of the trusty Bitcoin while it’s so cheap!!!

 Go hard you trailblazer!


----------



## Belli

JohnDe said:


> That said, our conviction in decentralized and transparent public blockchains is as strong as ever. In this case and others, decentralization and transparency are paramount as *antidotes to the gross mismanagement associated with centralized intermediaries, not to mention fraudulent centralized intermediaries.*




This would have to be one of the funniest things I have read when taken in the context of what has apparently occurred with FTX.

I've never placed money in crypto as I just do not understand what it is for.  Many have attempted to explain it to me but it goes right over my head.


----------



## againsthegrain

Tyre Kicker said:


> El Salvador’s President should get a bit serious and buy up a heap of the trusty Bitcoin while it’s so cheap!!!
> 
> Go hard you trailblazer!



yolo yo


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin price returns to $16K amid warning over BTC whale selling
					

BTC price gains nearly 4% as Bitcoin analysts wait for Grayscale cues.




					cointelegraph.com
				



Forecast whales will sell-down Bitcoin to a $12,000 defensive wall.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin will survive failure of ‘any giant’ in crypto, Samson Mow says
					

Bitcoin proponent Samson Mow expects more crashes like FTX in the future, but none of them will destroy Bitcoin, he believes.




					cointelegraph.com
				



He guesses a two year period for Bitcoins' recovery and next burn out in 5 to 6 years.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin may need $1B more on-chain losses before new BTC price bottom
					

It may take $1.7 billion of Bitcoin on-chain losses until BTC price sets a new macro low.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## mullokintyre

Trader X said:


> Known as the Martingale Strategy...
> 
> *"It is considered a risky method of investing*_. It is based on the theory of increasing the amount allocated for investments, even if its value is falling, in expectation of a future increase. When the Martingale Strategy is used in betting, the gambler must double the bet when faced with a loss."_
> 
> Question is where is the money (USD) coming from?  USD reserves, borrowed, volcano bonds?
> 
> View attachment 149390



They are selling the previous purchases. 
The staement never said they were keeping them.
Mick


----------



## Trader X

mullokintyre said:


> They are selling the previous purchases.
> The staement never said they were keeping them.
> Mick



El Salvador’s Bitcoin Holdings Lose 60% of Their Value in Crypto Selloff​
_*"Finance Minister says government hasn’t sold any Bitcoin"*

"The country’s 2,381 Bitcoin are now worth $41.5 million at current prices, below the roughly $105 million the government paid to purchase them..."_

So purchasing one BTC per day will save the day?  What a disaster for an impoverished country with a crackpot authoritarian leader who has bought into the delusion the Bitcoin will be his country's financial salvation.


----------



## Trader X

From AFR...
Top investors caught up in bitcoin miner’s near collapse​_"A raft of high-profile Australian investors are caught up in a $333 million investment wipeout after the near collapse of Nasdaq-listed Australian bitcoin miner Iris Energy as a US creditor demanded it repay debts due immediately.

Investors caught out by Iris’s 94.5 per cent share price fall since its November 2021 initial public offer include Phil King’s Regal Asset Management, Platinum Asset Management, Alex Waislitz’s Thorney Opportunities, Mike Cannon-Brookes’ Grok Ventures, Wilson Asset Management, and OC Funds Management.

Shares in the green bitcoin miner founded by former Macquarie Group bankers Will and Daniel Roberts plunged 18 per cent on Monday after it spooked investors by admitting US creditors were demanding immediate repayment of $US107.8 million in loans it took to buy bitcoin mining equipment.

Iris said its wholly owned subsidiaries set up as special purpose vehicles (SPVs) would default on the debt and that creditor New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) had no recourse or financial claim on the Nasdaq-listed Iris parent group.

The collapse has delivered a $US220 million ($333 million) wipeout for investors after its November 2021 initial public offer of 8.3 million shares at $US28 a share – time-stamped at the top of the cryptocurrency bubble."_


----------



## Sean K

Is it all unravelling? Perhaps this is why gold has been going ok the past few weeks.


----------



## wayneL

Sean K said:


> Is it all unravelling? Perhaps this is why gold has been going ok the past few weeks.
> 
> View attachment 149669



I still have this question: WHY should Bitcoin be worth anything?

Yeah I know about proof-of-work blah blah blah, but I can dig a 10 foot hole and fill it up again and prove that I did it, doesn't mean a damn thing because nobody gives a rats whether I did that or not.

Gold I can hold in my hand.


----------



## againsthegrain

They could go to a online casino start with 1 btc on black if it doesn't come keep doubling it same type of a martingale deal, pull the band aid off and get it over and done with


----------



## Trader X

wayneL said:


> I still have this question: WHY should Bitcoin be worth anything?
> 
> Yeah I know about proof-of-work blah blah blah, but I can dig a 10 foot hole and fill it up again and prove that I did it, doesn't mean a damn thing because nobody gives a rats whether I did that or not.
> 
> Gold I can hold in my hand.



In summary, network effect, scarcity, decentralization, speculation and the greater fool principle.  Worth nothing in itself but has a price.  The original vision was Proof-of-Reputation (PoR) not proof-of-work (PoW) for network security. 

Gold is real inflation proof money, and a gold backed digital currency would make it more easily divisible, fungible, and portable_.  _No need then to handle or transport gold coinage or return to using redeemable notes.


----------



## wayneL

Trader X said:


> In summary, network effect, scarcity, decentralization, speculation and the greater fool principle.  Worth nothing in itself but has a price.  The original vision was Proof-of-Reputation (PoR) not proof-of-work (PoW) for network security.
> 
> Gold is real inflation proof money, and a gold backed digital currency would make it more easily divisible, fungible, and portable_.  _No need then to handle or transport gold coinage or return to using redeemable notes.




I like the whole decentralisation concept, but is that a real thing? All cryptocurrencies, as things stand, must come back to being valued in fiat (and I do realise it is the same with everything else).

Because everything else comes back to having some tangible representation. A gold coin or ingot, a barrel full of crude oil, set number of bushels of grain, a known percentage share of a company.

Even fiat has pieces of paper or plastic with pretty colours printed on them.

Cryptos exist in the ether ( which made in interesting choice of name for it's cryptocurrency namesake).


----------



## noirua

Aussies warned to avoid crypto paper wallets they find on the street
					

Aussie police are warning of a scheme where scammers drop fake paper wallets in public places that lure victims with promises of free crypto.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin price is still flat, but 'whales' are active 📌
					

As a global leader in online trading, we've earned a reputation for transparency and speed execution. Backed by one of the most advanced platforms on the market, choose from three different types of account to suit your style and be supported by a dedicated account manager throughout your...




					www.xtb.com


----------



## Junior

wayneL said:


> I still have this question: WHY should Bitcoin be worth anything?
> 
> Yeah I know about proof-of-work blah blah blah, but I can dig a 10 foot hole and fill it up again and prove that I did it, doesn't mean a damn thing because nobody gives a rats whether I did that or not.
> 
> Gold I can hold in my hand.




I agree.  

I still don't understand why it has value, let alone why it should appreciate in value over time.  

Happy to be proven wrong...I'm not saying I know with any degree of certainty that it's future is doomed, I just still do not understand why the value of a coin will necessarily be higher than it is now, in 5/10/20 years' time.  And in fact it could be far lower, or zero.

* Does not generate income
* Is not tangible, or tied to anything else which is tangible
* Yes, there is finite supply, of Bitcoin, but there are many 1,000s of other coins which can perform the same/similar functions.  New coins are being created all the time.
* Blockchain technology has value....so should we not own the business which stand to benefit (eg. buy shares)?
* I understand it has some merit as a payment system...if one needs to transfer funds across counties, quickly (not relevant to 99% of the population)
* I can't see why anyone would want, or need, to use BTC as a payment method in your day to day lives.  Fiat works perfectly well for that purpose.

Please prove me wrong.


----------



## Trader X

Junior said:


> I still don't understand why it has value, let alone why it should appreciate in value over time.



If you listen to the Bitcoin maximalists and cut through all the hyperbole and superlatives, there's very little discussion about value.  In fact they are dismissive of any reference to intrinsic value, which they must do because there is none. The focus is on utility (especially useful for scammers and crims),  scarcity (there will never be more than 2.1 quadrillion satoshis 😆) , imagined freedom from the traditional banking system (decentralized finance) and security (in your cold wallet only).

** Does not generate income* - Well some of the unregulated crypto shadow banks have tried yield farming/staking like Celsius and others but this has not turned out well for crypto investors now has it.

** Is not tangible, or tied to anything else which is tangible *- well indirectly it's tied (convertible) to fiat via stable coins like Tether.

** Blockchain technology has value* - There is no patent on blockchain (distributed ledger) tech per se, so no ownership royalties apply.

** I can't see why anyone would want, or need, to use BTC as a payment method in your day to day lives. Fiat works perfectly well for that purpose. *-  We practically operate cashless these days anyway, BTC is largely irrelevant to the vast majority of financial transactions and CBDC will make BTC even less relevant in the future.  But then the mantra now is HODL amongst the maximalists.  Hoard your BTC and it must get more valuable over time is the pitch in crypto fantasy land.


----------



## CityIndex

There has always been a lot of speculation that if not the future global currency, Bitcoin would at least become a digital equivalent to gold in terms of a store of value. However, as has been mentioned a number of times on this thread this year, BTC essentially trades like a high-beta version of the NASDAQ (up until FTX scandal).

It of course remains to be seen how Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies as whole, develop over the next few years. There is definitely a lot of scope for value within the space, but at the moment, it seems to be just another risk asset class in the market.


----------



## Trader X

CityIndex said:


> There is definitely a lot of scope for value within the space, but at the moment, it seems to be just another risk asset class in the market.



How could anyone accurately model valuation in the crypto space?  Crypto is a *very high* *risk*, speculative asset class and does not trade on measurable fundamentals of any kind.  At least NASDAQ tech stocks have business metrics that allow one to estimate value in contrast to crypto which trades on pure price speculation.


----------



## CityIndex

That’s a really great point, and it feeds into the idea of why Bitcoin often trades like a highly leveraged (highly risky) version of NDX.

Given that many tech companies are categorised as growth stocks, they can be seen as more speculative plays in the equity market. This is magnified for cryptos due to that lack of accurate valuation, or pure speculation, as you said.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

noirua said:


> Bitcoin price returns to $16K amid warning over BTC whale selling
> 
> 
> BTC price gains nearly 4% as Bitcoin analysts wait for Grayscale cues.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cointelegraph.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Forecast whales will sell-down Bitcoin to a $12,000 defensive wall.



My charts indicate "Wall" will be $USD10000.

But whose going to quibble when a body has lost $USD50000 plus per BTC in 1 year. 

gg


----------



## Trader X

Garpal Gumnut said:


> But whose going to quibble when a body has lost $USD50000 plus per BTC in 1 year.
> 
> gg



C'mon gg, you're neglecting "long term" BTC performance.  You have to drink the Bitcoin maximalist cool-aid and look back to predict the future.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin miner Core Scientific is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy — but plans to keep mining
					

Core Scientific, one of the largest publicly traded crypto mining companies in the U.S., is filing for bankruptcy protection.




					www.cnbc.com
				



Bitcoin miner Core Scientific is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy — but plans to keep mining​PUBLISHED TUE, DEC 20 2022 11:30 PM ESTUPDATED WED, DEC 21 2022 3:59 AM EST


----------



## Trader X

noirua said:


> Bitcoin miner Core Scientific is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy — but plans to keep mining



Just highlights the folly and incredible waste of energy and special purpose compute hardware required to "mine" a dematerialized "asset".

_"Core’s market capitalization had fallen to *$78 million* as of end of trading Tuesday, down from a *$4.3 billion* valuation in July 2021 when the company went public through a special purpose acquisition vehicle, or SPAC. The stock has fallen more than 98% in the last year."_

Valuation once again confused with market capitalization based on price.  Yet another SPAC gone bust.  How many crypto mining rigs are just E-waste now?

_"Core had previously said in a filing in October that holders of its common stock could suffer “a total loss of their investment,” _

😆 That warning likely applies to every crypto project, exchange and venture.

The financial fallout from crypto mania continues apace.


----------



## mullokintyre

Russia is supposedly about to  approve the use of Bitcoin as a payment mechanism for oil and a few other things.
From Bitcoin magazine



> Russia’s Congressional finance committee chairman, Anatoly Aksakov, said the country is moving to greenlight international trade in cryptocurrency within the next month, according to a report by national news agency TASS.
> 
> "In January, we want to legalize cryptocurrencies to ensure foreign trade activities," Aksakov said, per a translated version of the report.
> 
> The chairman highlighted that although Russia is taking steps to allow bitcoin and cryptocurrency payments for imports, there are no plans to encourage similar usage of the burgeoning assets within the boundaries of the nation’s territory.
> 
> "The circulation of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment on the territory of Russia will be prohibited, and liability will be prescribed in this regard," he reportedly stated. "But to pay for foreign trade transactions, we still assume the possibility of using cryptocurrencies, for example, for parallel imports."
> 
> Russian officials have teased at this possibility for almost a year, following an intense package of Western sanctions deployed in the wake of the nation’s invasion of Ukraine.



Going to be hard for the US to  sanction this one, its out side the BIS  umbrella.
Mick


----------



## Trader X

mullokintyre said:


> Russia is supposedly about to  approve the use of Bitcoin as a payment mechanism for oil and a few other things.
> From Bitcoin magazine
> 
> 
> Going to be hard for the US to  sanction this one, its out side the BIS  umbrella.
> Mick



Not really what Bitcoin maximalists are hoping for, this puts only a small dent in the reserve currency status of the USD.  No doubt counter parties would simply move in and out of Bitcoin solely for the purpose of competing a transaction to minimize the volatility risk of holding BTC.  Forbidding "The circulation of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment on the territory of Russia..." must be considered a blow to maximalist ambitions for Bitcoin in Russia.


----------



## mullokintyre

I wonder if carl is going to regret this tweet from  early 2022'



There are a few days to go, but I suspect he will be out of the money.
Mick


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I've been reading some of the Hedge Funds comments on BTC and Crypto in the WSJ and FT.

It would appear that with the FTX debacle their appetite for trading ( which has been overall profitable trading long and short ) is waning.

Their main worry is the safety of their "coin" on the blockchain particularly since the FTX debacle.

I can see either massive shorting or withdrawal of Funds' investment over the next few weeks.

Further I cannot see this consolidation around BTC= $16600 or thereabouts lasting on a TA basis.




gg


----------



## sptrawler

mullokintyre said:


> Russia is supposedly about to  approve the use of Bitcoin as a payment mechanism for oil and a few other things.
> From Bitcoin magazine
> 
> 
> Going to be hard for the US to  sanction this one, its out side the BIS  umbrella.
> Mick



Sounds like an international game of pass the parcel, I mean bitcoin, it will be interesting when the music stops to see who is carrying the oil and who is carrying the bitcoin.


----------



## noirua

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-nears-3-week-high-as-trader-says-sub-7-cpi-may-see-19k
		

Bets are increasing on a push higher for Bitcoin and on BTC price action defining the current range as its macro bottom.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

noirua said:


> https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-nears-3-week-high-as-trader-says-sub-7-cpi-may-see-19k
> 
> 
> Bets are increasing on a push higher for Bitcoin and on BTC price action defining the current range as its macro bottom.



BTC is making a good attempt to crack $USD 1700 and break out of it's range over the last few months. 

Tonight when the US markets open will decide whether it will be successful or not. 

My guess is it won't but it is a guess, and as good a one as anyone elses. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong. 

gg


----------



## frugal.rock

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My guess is it won't but it is a guess, and as good a one as anyone elses. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong.



Sometimes it's good to be wrong, for all the right reasons.
Was watching a bit over the weekend and there were signs of life in the crypto world. Cracked through soon after you posted Mr Gumnut esquire.
I'm not interested really apart from the fact, if crypto is starting to run, it's relatively risk on time.
For how long? Dunno. How long does New Year hopium go for?




Edit. Had noticed some other cryptos had starting sneaking on the dailies last week.
You can see Spitcoin here did too....




PS, at time of posting, BTC seems to be about the worst performing on the rise. Others like Solana and Cardano are currently up 20 & 15% respectively in the last 24 hours


----------



## Sharkman

frugal.rock said:


> Was watching a bit over the weekend and there were signs of life in the crypto world.




possibly people in jurisdictions operating on a jan-dec financial year (like the US) were selling in dec to book losses for tax purposes. those who did so in early-mid dec might be starting to buy back in now, as sufficient time should've passed for them to avoid breaching the wash sale rule.


----------



## frugal.rock

mullokintyre said:


> I wonder if carl is going to regret this tweet from early 2022'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There are a few days to go, but I suspect he will be out of the money.
> Mick



Well, to be fair, it's probably more fun that he doesn't disappear, and, he didn't say when he would delete his twatter


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin flies high thanks in part to BlackRock's move
					

How will the price of BTC be affected in the long run?




					en.cryptonomist.ch


----------

