# The Elliott Wave debate



## Trembling Hand (1 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> ROFLMAO
> 
> 
> funny place the internet




Yes, it's becoming clear that EW works only on the internet just like Gann. :


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## ThingyMajiggy (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Dark1975 said:


> hmm maybe my bear suit will have to be put back in the carboard for now.Need to re-chart again.




Mate, I used to be indecisive too once, but now I'm not so sure. :


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## nunthewiser (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yes, it's becoming clear that EW works only on the internet just like Gann. :





LOL  i refuse to comment any further on the grounds i may upset someone


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## tech/a (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yes, it's becoming clear that EW works only on the internet just like Gann. :




Its very clear that very few know how to apply E/W.
Even fewer use it in their trading methodology.

Those who cannot apply it obviously cant make it "work".
A few of us dont have such a problem.


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## motorway (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Its very clear that very few know how to apply E/W.
> Even fewer use it in their trading methodology.
> 
> Those who cannot apply it obviously cant make it "work".
> A few of us dont have such a problem.




See it as a straight Jacket

The best opportunities
might well be where the count is totally opague

someone wise once said this



> Dramatic price movements tend to unfold from price structures that minimize profitable participation.




You need to be the only -->
one of a few, on this side of the sea saw,,,
it don't go up to any large extent any other way

No matter how much the consensus
if we are all at the same end
ZIP



motorway


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## Trembling Hand (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Its very clear that very few know how to apply E/W.
> Even fewer use it in their trading methodology.




Well thats my point Tech. What makes someone create multiple identities to praise their own "analysis" on a forum? Obviously they were getting no love from their trading account. Some have such weak and poor character they have to resort to cyberjerking themselves off.

The real maddening thing about this is all the others that follow in such jokers paths - wasting extremely valuable time and unknown amount of money. SAD!!

Just goes to show the point you were making in this thread,

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15129

Of course he could of been a trading genius just with personality issues, but I doubt it.


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## Naked shorts (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Its very clear that very few know how to apply E/W.
> Even fewer use it in their trading methodology.
> 
> Those who cannot apply it obviously cant make it "work".
> A few of us dont have such a problem.




EW analysis allows me to guess where EW users are placing their stops. Thats the only benefit I see in it.


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## tech/a (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



> Well thats my point Tech. What makes someone create multiple identities to praise their own "analysis" on a forum? Obviously they were getting no love from their trading account. Some have such weak and poor character they have to resort to cyberjerking themselves off.




Ah someone who understands the "duck"

And as is often the case they grow tired of the tedium and drift off into cyberspace.

Must duck off.


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## tech/a (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> EW analysis allows me to guess where EW users are placing their stops. Thats the only benefit I see in it.




In what time frame would that be then?
In what instrument would that also be?
Would you really think "THAT" many people actually use Elliott Wave in YOUR instrument to such an extent they 
(1) read the counts the same
(2) all use E/W for stop placement.(Rather stupid if you ask me)
(3) In the Time Frame your trading.
(4) guessing has always been a favorite indicator.About as accurate as most peoples counts.

Silly post.


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## beerwm (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

EW needs to just die.

It's only reason for its modern existence is its early development [1930's], if someone in this forum 'discovered' it, they would be branded a guru and shot down.

Rules upon rules designed to curve-fit the occurence that markets move in waves.

The only useful bit of information i can deduce from EW is that markets move in waves/revert to the mean [sometimes] and dont tell me you need a 1930's theorem to understand that.


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## tech/a (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

If I'm the only person on the planet that can use it to advantage then so be it.
If anyone wants a chart posted up then just holla.
If not----------not here to convince anyone.


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## Naked shorts (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> In what time frame would that be then?
> In what instrument would that also be?
> Would you really think "THAT" many people actually use Elliott Wave in YOUR instrument to such an extent they
> (1) read the counts the same
> ...





> Eur/Usd
> 1min
1) No
2) No
3) No
4) ??

These points are not something I care about. If at least some people are partially using it to determine their stops, then that should mean at certain points in the price action a mini-stop loss run might occur. So given the _possibility _that this could occur I look out for cases where it does actually occur to see if my suspicion holds true. 

If these SL runs do happen at certain EW points, I don't sit around wondering why people would be so stupid as to use it, I simply laugh and add that to my arsenal of things to expect from the price action and adjust my strategy accordingly.

edit: 
p.s. As for XAO analysis, I think we will continue on a slow uptrend as everyone starts to believe we have seen the bottom already (which I must commend TH for picking, his Guru status is well earned)


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## ThingyMajiggy (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> If I'm the only person on the planet that can use it to advantage then so be it.
> If anyone wants a chart posted up then just holla.
> If not----------not here to convince anyone.




Yeah post up a chart tech, I'm interested to see it. 

Whats funny, is the fact that the discussion has been the application from the individual applying the analysis has been the flaw, not the actual analysis, yet post after post is having a direct attack at EW, would have thought after discussions lately that attacks should be directed at those using it, not it.


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## tech/a (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> > Eur/Usd
> > 1min
> 1) No
> 2) No
> ...




Id love to see a 1 min EUR/USD chart marked up with a wave count!


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## Naked shorts (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> Id love to see a 1 min EUR/USD chart marked up with a wave count!




Here.

I dont care too much for the accuracy or the interpretation, just where possible S/R points are.


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## Boggo (1 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> Here.
> 
> I dont care too much for the accuracy or the interpretation, just where possible S/R points are.




Difficult to have one of the above without the other though is it not.

The wave 4 was fairly predicable at around 50% (1.4330) to 61.8% (1.4320) retracement once it broke below the start of the wave 5 of wave 3 parallel to where your label A is.

Your 3, 4, 5 and A are probably 1, 2, 3 and 4 of wave 3.

Just my 
.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (2 September 2009)

I hate EW.


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## nunthewiser (2 September 2009)

it usually turns into one big massdebate anyways


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## theasxgorilla (2 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> If I'm the only person on the planet that can use it to advantage then so be it.
> *If anyone wants a chart posted up then just holla.*
> If not----------not here to convince anyone.




How about broker statements from EW traded account?


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## GumbyLearner (2 September 2009)

Are Elliott's Wave's in anyway more important or significant than Kondratieff's? 

Just a question.

Please help me TH, I have no idea about this?????


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## wayneL (2 September 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Are Elliott's Wave's in anyway more important or significant than Kondratieff's?
> 
> Just a question.
> 
> Please help me TH, I have no idea about this?????




Not TH, but my 

Kondratiev Waves may be analogous to the EW grand super cycle (or whatever euphemism they use), but EW's are purportedly fractal and can allegedly be applied by the self described elite few p to shorter time frames than K-Waves.


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## GumbyLearner (2 September 2009)

wayneL said:


> Not TH, but my
> 
> Kondratiev Waves may be analogous to the EW grand super cycle (or whatever euphemism they use), but EW's are purportedly fractal and can allegedly be applied by the self described elite few p to shorter time frames than K-Waves.




cheers WayneL for your analysis. 

Thanks
Gumby


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## bowman (2 September 2009)

The difference between surfing and Elloitt, is that with surfing everyone sees the same waves.

I tried Eliott but gave up in frustration, and now i'm getting a bit old to surf, so basically I'm buggered.


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## tech/a (2 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



theasxgorilla said:


> How about broker statements from EW traded account?





In ALL posts on E/W I make it very very clear that all I want Elliott to do is give me an indication of where I am in a trade or where the index is in its maturity or infancy.

Go back and read all charts I have posted.
The latest have been very clear.
(1) The longer term Weekly is quite possibly nearing the top of a longer term wave 4 so the wave 5 final weekly corrective wave is imminent.
(2) The shorter term daily is also at the top of a 5 wave corrective move within a 3 wave up move so a corrective wave 4 is imminent within the 5 wave shorter term daily pattern.
When this plays out the the weekly is likely to come into play.

Not that hard and really handy.Has kept me on the right side.
Now how many statements do you want going back how long that Ive made profit on the right side of the market. $500 a piece and happy to oblige.
All moneys to Joe.




> just where possible S/R points are.




So proof emerges of the "Silly" post.
Drawing a line to the peak and troughs of a chart hardly constitutes Support and resistance let alone E/W.

If your going to argue a methodology at least have some knowledge of its structure.There are 3 basic rules and drawing lines from peaks and troughs don't satisfy those rules.

Happy to run some purely E/W trades if you all wish not that that's how I trade it---but there are some excellent trading methodologies using Elliott ONLY.
AGET has 5 in built methods.
Even with counts AGET uses other analysis to confirm trade suitability (stochastic false bars one of the most popular which is nothing more than using Stochastic PROPERLY)--wise in any trading.


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## wayneL (2 September 2009)

I guess the biggest question is:

*Why should EW work?*


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## wayneL (2 September 2009)

Re AGET

I have never used it and probably never will, but I have quite a lot of experience with another EW software (I worked for the company for a bit).

Let's just sat apart from being a typical pattern based deal where success depends on the trader creating +expectancy outcomes, EW software does nothing to improve the traders odds of success.

Fishing around the interwebs, some folks are saying that though AGET now has backtesting capabilities, you cannot test AGET's proprietary indicators...

LOL

Red flag!!

This is not to say it isn't useful. But it still comes down to the trader. If you can make EW and AGET work, you can do it without EW and AGET... IMNSHO.

EW, just like MACD, Stoch, red and green lines etc, is a* crutch*.

There is nothing wrong with a trading crutch. I readily admit to using a crutch from time to time (just can't resist those pretty coloured lines )... so long as the trader realises that it is just a crutch.

That said, I like EW correctives as trading opportunities. They are high(er) probability patterns IMO. But I never bother to label them. Whether it is wave A,G,F,R,L,H,G,S,J,H,Y,E,V,K,D... whatever, the pattern triggers something in my mental map that makes me want to trade it. Who gives a f~~~ what you call it.


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## tech/a (2 September 2009)

Interesting thoughts Wayne.

So in your opinion any and *all* technical analysis is nothing more than a crutch a feel good decision making tool and one should be able to trade profitably without these "Crutches"?

Off for a run but will call back later.


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## wayneL (2 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> Interesting thoughts Wayne.
> 
> So in your opinion any and *all* technical analysis is nothing more than a crutch a feel good decision making tool and one should be able to trade profitably without these "Crutches"?




I like what Nick said once on this board (and forgive me if I've added my own cognitive bias) that T/A is nothing more than creating boundaries for entries/exits.

I believe T/A improves the potential for selecting low risk opportunities (and therefore mathematical expectancy). EW/pattern analysis may be a part of that... and I *believe* it improves my trading beyond random.

But the important point that I'd like to make is that the extraneous addition of subjective analysis by labelling waves, drawing trendlines, creating indicators, etc etc etc etc is merely giving ourselves permission... or perhaps an excuse to enter/exit a trade.

In hindsight, it is rare that we could not have improved a trade with some other indicator, parameter, fib/whatever level, or label... but this can *only* be determined in hindsight.

That said, humans *need* some sort of parameter, some sort of justification for any action. It is always logic invented to justify an emotion decision.

For any given signal where there is a surplus of signals over capital, why did we chose to trade ABC over XYZ, or why did we choose to take one signal and not the other. Gut feel? X factor? 

Mathematics saves us from ourselves if we realise how cognitively biased we are. This is the reason for money management. Without it, even if the individual is good at selecting trades, we have the potential to blow ourselves up. 

This all begs the question as to how good the our subjective analysis is, compared to or objective trade rules (cut losers, let winners run). I like to kid myself that my T/A input is important and I do believe it is, but often events cause me to question.

<edit to add> I'm full of cheap Spanish Merlot ATM, so if it looks like BS, it probably is.


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## bowman (2 September 2009)

wayneL said:


> <edit to add> I'm full of cheap Spanish Merlot ATM, so if it looks like BS, it probably is.




LOL I'm envious.

I'm full of cheap home made muesli atm.


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## tech/a (2 September 2009)

> I like what Nick said once on this board (and forgive me if I've added my own cognitive bias) that T/A is nothing more than creating boundaries for entries/exits.




An observation I have made on this board more than once.

However I'll go further.

A chart to me is a perfect snap shot of Crowd behaviour in whatever time frame you look at.

*Technical analysis quantifies/measures/and deconstructs that crowd behaviour,giving us the opportunity to create boundaries(entries/Exits/Trailing stops) in anticipation of the next movement of the crowd or a part there of.*


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## explod (2 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> An observation I have made on this board more than once.
> 
> However I'll go further.
> 
> ...




And I have observed this on many occasions which is the same thing:- SINTIMENT SENTIMENT SENTIMENT.

I like just the simple chart without trailing averages or bollingers et al, just the chart and the volume.    But above all the right sector, eg it is mainly energy at the moment IMHO.


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## Timmy (2 September 2009)

explod said:


> SINTIMENT




This is especially useful if trading the NZD :


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## wayneL (2 September 2009)

Timmy said:


> This is especially useful if trading the NZD :


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## Sean K (2 September 2009)

wayneL said:


>


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## Trembling Hand (2 September 2009)

This thread should of been named something else. A couple of suggestions,

"Dangers in blindly following a Guru."

"Can you trade EW as a standalone method?"

"Was WP a nut?"

"Are we all nutz?"


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## beamstas (2 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Naked shorts said:


> EW analysis allows me to guess where EW users are placing their stops. Thats the only benefit I see in it.




Wowee
You must be moving ALOT of volume if knowing where the stops are for people using EW are on Eur/Usd.


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## explod (2 September 2009)

I do not use Elliott Wave theory, but my readings of it indicate (and I am repeating myself) that the waves movements are backed up (historically)when measured against market fundamantals at most stages.

And as has also been said, some say we passed wave 5 some time back at the last crash, I believe we are still in a wave 5 and we will go, on fundamentals, into one hell of a wave down as it exhausts.

Hope that makes sense, and no reds either.


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## Sean K (2 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



beamstas said:


> Wowee
> You must be moving ALOT of volume if knowing where the stops are for people using EW are on Eur/Usd.



Gee, you're posting a lot here recently beamstas. Thanks for your contributions.


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## Trembling Hand (2 September 2009)

I have seemed to of woken up in the twilight zone, Nun was right.



> it usually turns into one big massdebate anyways


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## tech/a (2 September 2009)

In reply



Trembling Hand said:


> This thread should of been named something else. A couple of suggestions,
> 
> "Dangers in blindly following a Guru."
> 
> ...


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## beerwm (2 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> "Can you trade EW as a standalone method?"
> 
> YES




I would really like to see you do that,
but i fear you'd just be trend trading.

your profits would IMO lie in the general 'trends' and 'waves' which EW defines about markets,

but surely many would contribute the profits to the entire method, regardless of its absurdity


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## Naked shorts (2 September 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tech/a said:


> So proof emerges of the "Silly" post.
> Drawing a line to the peak and troughs of a chart hardly constitutes Support and resistance let alone E/W.
> 
> If your going to argue a methodology at least have some knowledge of its structure.There are 3 basic rules and drawing lines from peaks and troughs don't satisfy those rules.




Tech, I think you're missing my point. If I can place a stop for my trades just before others, I'm happy. If I place a stop for my trades at a price level that gets hit but does not continue further, I'm very unhappy. I read the tape/dom and only try to take about 8pips at a time, so very tight, effective stops get me excited (very excited).

Sitting around drawing waves accurately is not something I care about, I just make a mental note of a possible levels and watch the tapes reaction to these levels.

To me, EW is basically the same thing as "mental levels". If a few people believe it will have an effect on the market then that will affect their trading and that will consequentially effect the market. It becomes self fulfilling. 

Can EW help one to build a profitable system? Well, aren't you evidence of that?


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## shumba (2 September 2009)

Elliot waves rock


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## nunthewiser (2 September 2009)

shumba said:


> Elliot waves rock





gnarly dude


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## tech/a (2 September 2009)

beerwm said:


> I would really like to see you do that,
> but i fear you'd just be trend trading.
> 
> your profits would IMO lie in the general 'trends' and 'waves' which EW defines about markets,
> ...




How else does Elliott or any other Analysis make a profit.?
You find somewhere to enter where your anticipating a move in your direction (trend).



Naked shorts said:


> Tech, I think you're missing my point. If I can place a stop for my trades just before others, I'm happy. If I place a stop for my trades at a price level that gets hit but does not continue further, I'm very unhappy. I read the tape/dom and only try to take about 8pips at a time, so very tight, effective stops get me excited (very excited).
> 
> Sitting around drawing waves accurately is not something I care about, I just make a mental note of a possible levels and watch the tapes reaction to these levels.
> 
> To me, EW is basically the same thing as "mental levels". If a few people believe it will have an effect on the market then that will affect their trading and that will consequentially effect the market. It becomes self fulfilling.




Firstly your not talking about Elliott.
Joining the dots is nothing more than S&R.
I dont disagree eith you on being self fullfilling we all see it every session.
My point is dont confuse S&R with Elliott it has little relevance.



> Can EW help one to build a profitable system? Well, aren't you evidence of that?




Its not used in a system purely as a "feel good"where am I in this trade if I take it.If I have a no supply bar at a posible end wave 4 then I'm on it.
If its in a wave 3 then its possibly not as powerful.blah blah blah.Endless example endless example.


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## Sean K (2 September 2009)

shumba said:


> Elliot waves rock



Nice first post from an EW supporter.

I assume.

Thanks.


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## swm79 (2 September 2009)

i dont understand why the people who are against EW just let the people who are for EW continue to make "bad trading choices" (in the non-EWers view).

If someone wants to use EW and you think its wrong who cares??? let them "make the mistake" of using EW if they believe it works.

each to their own i say

if we're all making our own decisions how can using a bit of EW hurt?

if you dont believe in it just dont read the post or laugh at it because YOU think its contrarian

EWers bring on the analysis!


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## Trembling Hand (2 September 2009)

From wiki,
Internet forum: *discussion *board on the Internet


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## swm79 (2 September 2009)

oooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh 

wow, dont i feel like a total loser


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## Naked shorts (2 September 2009)

swm79 said:


> wow, dont i feel like a total loser




Yes.


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## tech/a (2 September 2009)

Those who wish to see live trading using Elliott in conjunction with AGET can see Stocks/Currencies/and various timeframes traded here along with archives going back a couple of years.

http://www.agetblog.com/tradingtechniques/2009/08/nzdusd-final-update.html


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## CFD (3 September 2009)

swm79 said:


> oooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
> wow, dont i feel like a total loser




You shouldn't, you raised a question about the type of discussion.


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## swm79 (3 September 2009)

i was being sarcastic.... 

granted this is a *discussion*... people are acting like someone is saying "this is the ONLY way" 

it just amuses me that people are SO against it and it has been getting heated... no one is say you HAVE to use it.


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## Trembling Hand (3 September 2009)

swm79 said:


> it just amuses me that people are SO against it and it has been getting heated... no one is say you HAVE to use it.




I don't think it's been heated but it is interesting the sensitivity. One EW poster has been wrong here all year. Any mention of that and you are labeled an EW hater. And told to move on. Then we learn that the EW guru on this forum is a nutter that likes to create extra personalities and praise himself.

But whatever you do don't point out that it seems few can actually really trade with it. Thats most definitely worth the discussion.


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## nunthewiser (3 September 2009)

just loves the elliot wave discussions 

always guarenteed a " u dont understand it " or a " u obviously know nothing about it " comment when one questions its uses in trading 

i understand what i see .............. cant help but get plastered with it here ........ shame i havent seen to much forsight help with it tho ....... BUT i do enjoy the detail and work that goes into the posting of the analysis and charts 

i personally dont use it for trading but i do like some of its theory and think that its better left to the obvious experts on it here

oh i really think Gann rocks also


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## nunthewiser (3 September 2009)

its a bit like standing at a crossroads , and wondering which way to walk .. EW just tends to pick every scenario that could happen and then tooting its horn if it gets one out of the 15 guesses right 

no offense intended and do understand that the individual can interpret it many ways . but have seen many interpretations here so far and only seen it work best in hindsight when one can draw in the out come afterwards

please do not respond to my posts as not here for another round of earbashing and abuse , just mainly stating MY thoughts on what i can see

oops addition . of course you entitled to your right of reply all i meant is there will not be one from me as its just all too hard to discuss without upsetting the minions


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## swm79 (3 September 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> I don't think it's been heated but it is interesting the sensitivity. One EW poster has been wrong here all year. Any mention of that and you are labeled an EW hater. And told to move on. Then we learn that the EW guru on this forum is a nutter that likes to create extra personalities and praise himself.
> 
> But whatever you do don't point out that it seems few can actually really trade with it. Thats most definitely worth the discussion.




true true... hahah



> But whatever you do don't point out that it seems few can actually really trade with it.




i've got respect for people who use EW and i think if its something they feel happy with using more power to you. i'll take advice re: EW but i'll always make my own decisions. i personally dont use it... but then, i have no experience with it, so i wouldnt know where to begin... well, maybe


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## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

Look, elliot wave theory is very hard, and subjective to follow and label, but there are definite positives to be taken from the theory. 

I would never trade, purely on an elliot wave theory, it is in my opinion, not a strategy with a high probabilty of sucess, but when used with other techniques can become very powerful.

I believe that you can take positive/negatives from every theory. It is easy to critize and dismiss a theory that you believe to be wrong, but its it is smarter to listen, learn and develop from it.

In any case, the only thing that makes theory correct or incorrect, is other people obeying the same theory, so theorys are self perpetuating. What makes elliot wave theory hard to self perpetuate, is that the labeling of waves is subjective. For example, what i call an A wave you may call wave 2, or what i call an a-b-c correction you can wave 1-2-3. Therefore the theory is very hard to perpetue with great sucess. 

theorys such as support and resistance are perpetuated with easy because everyone here knows how to identify them and everyone will follow them!

Im going to duck for cover as i say this, because not everyone will accept what i say.

Contrary to this rule, there are mathamatical anamolys which occur in different stocks, which can be traded with a high probabilty of sucess, Gann spoke of them but did not reveal them, but i can vouch from how they are traded, because i have seen people discover these and have used them, and backtested them. 

No single theory can be called wrong or stupid, because it is a theory, and in certain situations, any theory could be correct. Only ignorant people will say that a theory is BS or that is a load of crap, a theory is correct until it is not. A Good trader will adapt and develop his theories based on what the stock or index says to you, let it speak to you. Becuase you may find you have an elliot wave channel, or a fibonacci cluster, if you do, trade it! Neven let the theory dictate to you what the stock or index should do.

This is my opinion, and im not have a go at anyone, so dont throw darts at my head! haha


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## motorway (12 September 2009)

> No single theory can be called wrong or stupid, because it is a theory, and in certain situations, any theory could be correct. Only ignorant people will say that a theory is BS or that is a load of crap, a theory is correct until it is not. A Good trader will adapt and develop his theories based on what the stock or index says to you, let it speak to you. Becuase you may find you have an elliot wave channel, or a fibonacci cluster, if you do, trade it! Neven let the theory dictate to you what the stock or index should do.




A theory can be right or wrong
explain the facts or not.

Can stocks go up and down
in any other way but
Elliot's waves

No = Theory is Right ...Don't leave home without EW map
YES = Find better more encompassing REAL map
least you on sidelines when you should be in the game
or you in the game when only the EWers are playing pretend and everyone else is on the sideline,,

motorway


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## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

motorway said:


> A theory can be right or wrong
> explain the facts or not.
> 
> Can stocks go up and down
> ...




Well no theory is 100%, but i have found situations where the stock will follow elliot wave biblically, with easy labeling. But i see what you are saying, and i reply with no, stocks can go in any way they want, they dont obey elliot, every time.

However think about this, in the time of elliot wave theory, perhaps his study found that based on the coniditons and human emotion of that time, that is how the stocks moved, (i don't know if this is right im hypothesising). But given today, we have a brand new series of events and conditions, with new emotion which will spit out brand new cycles and theorys, so elliots theory may not continue to work. I know from recent trading, that certain stocks having bear runs would only last 45 days, this was a rule backtested. that rule is no longer valid, but who knows maybe it be true again if conditions and emotion allow.


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## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

Let me give you another example, if you were using an RSI indicator atm, or some other momentum indicator, it would have showed that everything is very heavily overbought, does that mean you would have being taking shorts the last 3 weeks? heck no, thats not to say the indicator is rubbish, or im never going to use it, but right now its not giving me any high probability indications, but given different coniditions it can be very accurate, i just think what your saying is too 1 dimensional, not trying to be personal, but that is my view. It is not as simple as yes or no, or black or white.


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2009)

> Let me give you another example, if you were using an RSI indicator atm, or some other momentum indicator, it would have showed that everything is very heavily overbought, does that mean you would have being taking shorts the last 3 weeks?




If you did take a short based upon the above it would *clearly indicate *a complete misunderstanding of how to use the RSI or any other momentum oscillator.


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> but given different conditions it can be very accurate,



Yes like in hindsight. 100%.



lukeaye said:


> i just think what your saying is too 1 dimensional, not trying to be personal, but that is my view. It is not as simple as yes or no, or black or white.




What am I saying lukeaye. You have seemed to figure me out in 2 days. Very good   no wonder you can make Gann & EW "work". 

Looking forward to a couple of *traded *examples, about 50 would show us the truth.


----------



## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes like in hindsight. 100%.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




no it wasnt directed at you TH, i was saying the other reply was 1 dimensional, i just dont think you can say its wrong or right in that way. im not on the elliot wave band wagon at all.

hahah, yeah i dont think ive placed 50 gann trades, the system i use, to give me 50 trades would take probably 2 or 3 years. But ill admitt, it is not 100% right, if anyone has something 100% please let me know! hahaha.

PS what do you mean ive figured you out?


----------



## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> If you did take a short based upon the above it would *clearly indicate *a complete misunderstanding of how to use the RSI or any other momentum oscillator.




agreed, im not saying i am, im just pointing out common sense, the same is true of elliot wave theory, if it isnt showing the correct conditions for elliot wave, then dont use it, but there are definantely times when it is true. 

AND one more time IM not an elliot wave groupie.


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> Look, elliot wave theory is very hard, and subjective to follow and label, but there are definite positives to be taken from the theory.




Elliott is a methodology not a theory it has clear rules. 



> I would never trade, purely on an elliot wave theory, it is in my opinion, not a strategy with a high probabilty of sucess, but when used with other techniques can become very powerful.




And you know this from extensive testing or walk forward trading?



> I believe that you can take positive/negatives from every theory. It is easy to critize and dismiss a theory that you believe to be wrong, but its it is smarter to listen, learn and develop from it.




Theories can be proven wrong.
IE "You havent made a loss until you sell".



> In any case, the only thing that makes theory correct or incorrect, is other people obeying the same theory, so theorys are self perpetuating.




A theory is a theory an hypothesis,thoeries are for pondering,testing and investigating,not acting upon.




> What makes elliot wave theory hard to self perpetuate, is that the labeling of waves is subjective. For example, what i call an A wave you may call wave 2, or what i call an a-b-c correction you can wave 1-2-3. Therefore the theory is very hard to perpetue with great sucess.




Elliott is rule based clearly you dont understand the rules. It is common for those who arent versed in Elliott to "Theorise" as you have.



> theorys such as support and resistance are perpetuated with easy *because everyone here knows how to identify them and everyone will follow them!*




(In Black) So support and resistance work 100% of the time?



> Im going to duck for cover as i say this, because not everyone will accept what i say.




Why should we?



> Contrary to this rule, there are mathamatical anamolys which occur in different stocks, which can be traded with a high probabilty of sucess, Gann spoke of them but did not reveal them, but i can vouch from how they are traded, because i have seen people discover these and have used them, and backtested them.




Excellent would love to see these results. 



> No single theory can be called wrong or stupid, because it is a theory, and in certain situations, any theory could be correct. Only ignorant people will say that a theory is BS or that is a load of crap, a theory is correct until it is not.




The qualities of a deep thinker. Theories can be proven incorrect as Hawkings Black hole theory was proven--incorrect. Acting upon theories can be hazzardous.



> A Good trader will adapt and develop his theories based on what the stock or index says to you, let it speak to you. Becuase you may find you have an elliot wave channel,




What is an Elliott Wave channel!



> or a fibonacci cluster, if you do, trade it! Neven let the theory dictate to you what the stock or index should do.




Interesting thinking. It would then indicate that the thoery should be ignored (Neven let the theory dictate to you what the stock or index should do)--but trade it anyway.

Why would a good trader , trade using theories? Theories dont have known outcomes--by definition.



> This is my opinion, and im not have a go at anyone, so dont throw darts at my head! haha




Thank goodness I'm really sensitive.


----------



## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

Support and resistance is true until it is not, that is my point?

And i can prove my theory, i will post later one i use for NCM

Im aware of the elliot "rules" but if you have ever used elliot wave you will know that most of the time, you can only label correctly in hindsight, obviosuly you have never done it. It is very common for 1 of 3 things to occur, which is what makes it so subjective, trust me i have studied with some the best elliotions, and it is never that clear cut.

You have obivously taken this very personally tech, that was not my intention.

And yes what i am saying is use the theories and indicators as an aid, to increase your probability of sucess, in conjuction with other things, but never make a trade based on a theory and dispel other evidence.


----------



## wayneL (12 September 2009)

corn:


----------



## Boggo (12 September 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Looking forward to a couple of *traded *examples, about 50 would show us the truth.




I can start the ball rolling there TH, not going to do 50 (don't know why I am even doing one ).

The method does work guys, but it does help when you have software that helps you find potential candidates.
You still have to be able to glance at a chart and see a pattern or a repeat of a previous pattern before committing serious money to it.

There has been some spectacular examples lately, CBA RCR MCR(which I didn't have the funds for at the time ) are just three that come to mind.
There have been a few failures too but the stops have contained those.

I currently hold three stocks based on the method.

Overall it is profitable for me, there is no doubt that it works, human behaviour patterns do repeat and are predictable and that is really the foundation of the concept.

GBG example below for TH 

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo (12 September 2009)

wayneL said:


> corn:




I am on the couch with Wayne from here on while the recently deceased equine incurs a few more whip marks 

:horse:

opcorn:

.


----------



## motorway (12 September 2009)

Boggo said:


> I can start the ball rolling there TH, not going to do 50 (don't know why I am even doing one ).
> 
> The method does work guys, but it does help when you have software that helps you find potential candidates.
> You still have to be able to glance at a chart and see a pattern or a repeat of a previous pattern before committing serious money to it.
> ...




The question is what tool best reveals the BOLD
in ALL cases

I go to sidelines too

But leave with these POINTS

mkts are a JUMP DIFFUSION PROCESS

Time is Not continious BUT discrete

hence use of time frames leads to two errors

distraction  ( empty noise ( as empty SPACE )as timeframe is reduced )
Oblivion (  blurring of Signal as time frame increased )

( trading ) time is discrete
price is continious

here is chart of correct type then

Any number of entry zones
since the bottom
clear as clear as clear

no elliot waves
they only are produced by the distorting lens of time frames
as are all things derived from time frames

Support is Support
Resistance is resistance
When viewed from outside time frames  
and one dimensional charts and their distorting lens

yes markets are different
some trend and then congest
some congest and then trend  

There is only ONE thing that needs testing 
Once you remove time frames

*What trends are probabilty Distributions
*

and not through timeframes
But through trading ( discrete ) time

motorway


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> Support and resistance is true until it is not, that is my point?




So is everything else.



> And i can prove my theory, i will post later one i use for NCM




Sample size 1 = proof---interesting.



> I'm aware of the Elliott "rules" but if you have ever used Elliott wave you will know that most of the time, you can only label correctly in hindsight, obviously you have never done it.




Clearly.



> It is very common for 1 of 3 things to occur, which is what makes it so subjective, trust me i have studied with some the best elliotions, and it is never that clear cut.




The 3 things being?
True for those not conversant expert or otherwise it isn't clear cut.
There are many "Expert Elliotians" out there who couldn't trade to save themselves.



> You have obviously taken this very personally tech, that was not my intention.




Which part of sensitive didn't you understand?



> And yes what i am saying is use the theories and indicators as an aid, to increase your probability of success, in conjunction with other things, but never make a trade based on a theory and dispel other evidence.




Interesting--when does a theory become "Other Evidence?"
How do you *know* anything increases probability?

I thought you'd be a more formidable adversary than that!

Aww common guys your no FUN!!! (M/W,Boggo!).

*Helped you out with the spell checker!*


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## Trembling Hand (12 September 2009)

Boggo said:


> I can start the ball rolling there TH, not going to do 50 (don't know why I am even doing one ).
> 
> There has been some spectacular examples lately, CBA RCR MCR(which I didn't have the funds for at the time ) are just three that come to mind.
> There have been a few failures too but the stops have contained those.
> ...




See Boggo this is BS. Its an obvious fraud to post *some *trades. That is the Gurus trick. Posting a trade that's now 15 days old is a joke. The only real valuation of a method is after a decent sample of *all *the actually trades *taken*. Or doing 50, 100, 200 etc in real time.

Nothing is proven with 1 example taken in isolation. I can give you three from yesterday where I top or bottom picked the HSI and road the wave right to the other side and then got out a couple of ticks from the end. Brilliant trades. Made lots in those individual trades. My method/system obviously "works". only trouble is I lost 2 grand yesterday.


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## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

Here is a real time trade, that i was looking at a few days ago.

I really couldnt be bothered arguing with you tech. my trading is succesful, thats all the proof i need, and i hope you are succesful too, whatever system works and makes you money day in day out regardless or market conditions is a good system in my book, elliot or whatever you want to do.

i can give you 10 real time trades right now if you want


----------



## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

intresting stuff

its good to see everyones a winner 


oops except TH who lost 2k the other day


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## motorway (12 September 2009)

Getting Stopped is OK

But the main * point is what reveals the dynamics best*

and avoids time frame induced false break and signals

and To buy that first break is not maybe the optimum BUY

You still look for the test
or what de villiers
would say
is you don't buy the mid pattern rally
but in the re test on the base
or at the first true catapult

_and Now we get into 
more sophisticated entry technique_ ( off topic )
Which revolves around acceleration
off support
and use of nested scales ( smaller Box size when the divergence occurs )

and then of course there is volume


The main point is what reveals
the current probabilities with the greatest clarity
and keeps you as much as possible on the right side of them

Support jumps lower and lower
until it doesn't
and then it starts jumping higher and higher
in between jumps 
there is the diffusion

Joseph hart ( studied Wyckoff )

put it like this

Stocks move abruptly into place
and steadily in place

spring board
dead centre
no supply
no demand

volume follows price
and price follows volume  (depends if you look back or look forward )

volume is being defined by the reversals themselves
to significant extent ( such P&F so it is said can ignore volume )
but we do not have to,,,


motorway


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## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

Another one im in, elliot wave theory has worked for this stock for the last 5 years, as im saying doesnt work for all, but the ones it does work for, it works well.

I guess the proof will be in the pudding in a few week once it all unfolds.


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## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

And another tell me when to stop


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## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

wow 

great charts bud 

are you actually trading any ?


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## tech/a (12 September 2009)

T/H
Many moons ago you posted a scatter chart showing a days trading.From that it clearly showed that the 4 or so big winners gave you an edge over the lots of small losses and smaller wins. Not a critisism but an observation.
Is this true in the long run with your trading?

Thanks Lukaye--compelling stuff. But your charts are rubbish.

M/W yes understand.

Just noticed this re volume you may comment on.(Using GBG as an example seen on most stocks.)


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## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> wow
> 
> great charts bud
> 
> are you actually trading any ?




absolutley, pdn and yellow i eneted last week, got that nice little spike.

and seek im waiting for a pullback or some support before i enter.


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## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> T/H
> Many moons ago you posted a scatter chart showing a days trading.From that it clearly showed that the 4 or so big winners gave you an edge over the lots of small losses and smaller wins. Not a critisism but an observation.
> Is this true in the long run with your trading?
> 
> ...




thanks tech, i am at work and have limited software, why are you going out of your way to attack me? i dont understand?

anyway i dont feel like sharing anymore with you because i dont particulary like you.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> absolutley, pdn and yellow i eneted last week, got that nice little spike.
> 
> and seek im waiting for a pullback or some support before i enter.





can you show this via broker statements? or are you yet another hindsight trading expert we see so much off .......... 

no offense intended 

just asking ,as a lot of stuff we see in these threads are great in hindsight but not many actually call it in real time.

i do like how  all these charts show that EW is a definate goer


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## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

no offence taken 

These are real time nun, these are as recent as the close on friday

so i dont see why i should have to prove statements, because the movement hasnt happened yet? there is no hindsight involved, wait to see what unfolds, pdn has done nothing yet? neither has seek, yellow has just started but im not showing things that have already happened.


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## tech/a (12 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> thanks tech, i am at work and have limited software, why are you going out of your way to attack me? i dont understand?
> 
> anyway i dont feel like sharing anymore with you




I'm questioning you and your "theories"
I guess you'd prefer to have heads nodding in approval.

You seem to be taking this personally?
Your not female are you?
Was I married to you once?



> i dont particularly like you




This is a common affliction. Something some people never get over.
Statements are normally asked for to weed out the "Idiot gee I'm good factor" If Statements are produced then generally the one who asks for proof and is proven flicks $500 to Joe Blow in appreciation of such a good forum. If of course as you have---deny to do so then you fit in the "Idiot gee I'm good category" 

(More popularity votes!!)

Back to work then.


----------



## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> I'm questioning you and your "theories"
> I guess youd prefer to have heads nodding in approval.
> 
> You seem to be taking this personally?
> ...




well wait to see what happens in comming weeks tech, then you will put it in between your legs? like i hear your so good at doing, back to your weekend job. enough breath wasted on you


----------



## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> absolutley, pdn and yellow i eneted last week, got that nice little spike.
> 
> .






lukeaye said:


> no offence taken
> 
> but i dont see why i should have to prove statements, because the movement hasnt happened yet? there is no hindsight involved,  .




ok then 

i also entered DYL at its lowest ......... i sold at its highest ....... i dont know how to post charts and add wave counts as i am technically challenged 

but thats ok we are a trusting bunch here and if i say i bought low and sold high , i should be believed because this is the internet 

thankyou for your time


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> T/H
> Many moons ago you posted a scatter chart showing a days trading.From that it clearly showed that the 4 or so big winners gave you an edge over the lots of small losses and smaller wins. Not a critisism but an observation.
> Is this true in the long run with your trading?




Yes. Isn't it true of all profitable trading?

The big wins make the diff between BE or nice profit.... most days.


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## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

I LIKE TECH/A

he may annoy the sheet outta me at times but i have no doubts on his sincerity 

however there are others here that do not annoy me but BOY do i have some major doubts on there sincerity 

wow thats deep man


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## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> ok then
> 
> i also entered DYL at its lowest ......... i sold at its highest ....... i dont know how to post charts and add wave counts as i am technically challenged
> 
> ...




i didnt say that? i just said im entered into a position pdn, that isnt in profit yet, im waiting in real time for it to unfold? there is no hindsight, i do not understand what you mean?


----------



## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> Statements are normally asked for to weed out the "Idiot gee I'm good factor" *If Statements are produced then generally the one who asks for proof and is proven flicks $500 to Joe Blow*
> (More popularity votes!!)
> 
> .




NO thats your thang tech 

i personally just like to ask politely and see what happens


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes. Isn't it true of all profitable trading?
> 
> The big wins make the diff between BE or nice profit.... most days.




In some yes.

You could still be trading 50 trades a day with a 1.2 expectancy and do very well.

Or of course as I'm sure happens with you from time to time a combination of both through the week.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> absolutley, pdn and yellow i eneted last week, got that nice little spike.
> 
> .




ok i must have misread that bit about you catching the DYL spike 

ok my bad 

as you were


----------



## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> ok i must have misread that bit about you catching the DYL spike
> 
> ok my bad
> 
> as you were




08SEP09 10:34 4HWXAP CFD Paladin Energy Ltd A$ +5,000 4.6900 4.7500 1,300.00 300.00
Controlled risk stop 4.4300
Limit 5.6900
A$ Total 1,555.40 310.00

is that what you need or should i gif it?


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> NO thats your thang tech
> 
> i personally just like to ask politely and see what happens




Oh sorry.Thought it was universally adopted.Weeds out the idiots.

Whats "politely" mean?
The word is foreign.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> Oh sorry.Thought it was universally adopted.Weeds out the idiots.
> 
> Whats "politely" mean?
> The word is foreign.




and some people may take offense to your manner in asking ,and post statements in other threads to verify there "idiot "factor  elswhere ....

"politely" is in the websters edition of "bogan speak for the internet "


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> and some people may take offense to your manner in asking ,and post statements in other threads to verify there "idiot "factor  elswhere ....
> 
> "politely" is in the websters edition of "bogan speak for the internet "




Thanks.
Yes Happy to offend and happy to pay the $500 when wwwrrrrong.--as you know.


----------



## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

Well im not making outlandish claims, im just trying to show elliot wave trades, they havent finished yet, and my point was simply to show that the happen, not to gloat, and boast about past wins, if you guyz dont want to look at it then thats your business, but i have simply laid it out for you. see what happens is all i say. there is every possibilty that they wont work, and i accept that.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> Well im not making outlandish claims, im just trying to show elliot wave trades, they havent finished yet, and my point was simply to show that the happen, not to gloat, and boast about past wins, if you guyz dont want to look at it then thats your business, but i have simply laid it out for you. see what happens is all i say. there is every possibilty that they wont work, and i accept that.





nah dont get me wrong 

happy actually more than happy . overjoyed that people put there necks out and give there take on future directions/expected outcomes on any stock/indicies .... its intresting and educational to see other ppls thoughts on where they think we heading .....

you posted that you caught the DYL spike "yellow " i think you called it . and that was my reasoning for asking  for a bit of proof not just a chart ..... 

glad that you are posting your thoughts on future trades and entrys right or wrong 

what does sheet me is when ppl add the lines and squiggles AFTER the fact to prove a hindsight entry that only gets mentioned AFTER it goes up ......


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2009)

Luke



> im just trying to show elliot wave trades





My apologies.
Im confused.




> *I would never trade, purely on an elliot wave theory*, it is in my opinion, not a strategy with a high probabilty of sucess, but when used with other techniques can become very powerful.




Clearly then you have taken these trades with "other techniques" could you explain these in addition to your labelled charts?


----------



## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

This is a trade i took, now this charting software which i stated before is crap the price is wrong on rio for this date, but check your own records.

Now this trade i did, i identified using elliot wave theory, an a-b-c correction inside another wave. Now i was away from the computer for a while so i didnt get into the trade as early as i would have liked. but knowing elliots rule, a will be = to c, i took the trade in rio at $68 and closed out at $75.15.

and here are the records to show it. as i said the chart is wrong becuase of this crapy software but check yourself as to the price on those dates.

hopefully i a am no longer an "idiot" and ill take that $500 as well as my $2,500 profit i took.


----------



## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> Luke
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Well it would depend on what im trading, wouldnt it,

My favourite indicators are price time and volume, but i would analyse indistry sectors, commodity prices, what reports are comming out, then if you go to currency you might use stoch or RSI, or support resistance, fib, and certain time cycles, there are heaps that i would use, the more that support what im hypothesising the better i FEEL that it is a good trade.


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## tech/a (12 September 2009)

So you trade on Feel?
Derived by confluence of indicators.
Interesting.
You have the strangest grasp of an ABC correction I have seen.
What is it correcting exactly?

Wouldn't be concerned about your software.
Something else may need attention though.


----------



## Boggo (12 September 2009)

Some good analysis in these two daily blogs...

http://www.agetblog.com/tradingtechniques/

http://mtpredictor.blogspot.com/





nunthewiser said:


> I LIKE TECH/A




More popcorn and back to the lounge for me


----------



## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

my bad i didnt mean correction, force of habbit saying that, yeah that software is not the greatest. 

No its not feel, its analysis using many theories and past and current price patterns, candlestick analysis, etc tried and proven. 

you show me your gaurenteed trading strategy though tech. 

i have seen nothing but critisim from you so far, show me how great you are.

Im happy for you to show me anything useful. i can sit back and critise quite well.


----------



## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

price is wrong lol, blame my software


----------



## Kryzz (12 September 2009)

when did rio hit $75 in the last 6 months?


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> my bad i didnt mean correction, force of habbit saying that, yeah that software is not the greatest.
> 
> No its not feel, its analysis using many theories and past and current price patterns, candlestick analysis, etc tried and proven.
> 
> ...




Always thought it was wise to do some research before you start lobbing the scuds. :enforcer::screwy:


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2009)

Its over here.
The one I have made public.

http://www.thechartist.com.au/forum/ubbthreads.php?ubb=cfrm

Techtrader.

You'll need a few weeks to read it all.
You'll need to join.

Enjoy.


----------



## OzWaveGuy (12 September 2009)

Boggo said:


> More popcorn and back to the lounge for me




So far as the 'debate' has raged on,  I'm yet to understand what the debate is actually about. I thought a debate on a topic was at least 2 sides debating whether the EW principle is firstly: valid (eg 5 waves up 3 waves down in it's basic form) and secondly: if it can be used to predict market action.

Since there have been several good books on EW, I'm kinda expecting those that seem intent on proving EW doesn't exist to provide evidence that a 5/3 structure doesn't exist at all. It's also kinda amusing that many in this forum trade by looking for breakouts or certian patterns that occur, which is exactly what EW teaches. 

So far in the context of this 'debate', Boggo's input seems quite reasonable.


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2009)

> if it can be used to predict market action.




Do you think Predict or anticipate?


----------



## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

OzWaveGuy said:


> So far in the context of this 'debate', Boggo's input seems quite reasonable.





uh? 

showing one winning trade that shows no exit , shows no proof of still holding .......for all we know he sold out for a loss ....... 

and to be honest i pay no notice to many of the broker statements posted here as it has been shown to be falsified very easily in the past 

how about some real time entrys/exits. they speak

and geez . showing 1 winning entry ? from a while back to prove that he used EW ? .........spare me cuz.......... i can post 45 winning entrys to prove i didnt use EW and merely used support resistance bounce trades .

boggo,s input regarding proving EW means squat in my book

no offense boggo but thats my 2 cents as you have had yours in the past


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 September 2009)

OzWaveGuy said:


> So far as the 'debate' has raged on,  I'm yet to understand what the debate is actually about. I thought a debate on a topic was at least 2 sides debating whether the EW principle is firstly: valid (eg 5 waves up 3 waves down in it's basic form) and secondly: if it can be used to predict market action.
> 
> Since there have been several good books on EW, I'm kinda expecting those that seem intent on proving EW doesn't exist to provide evidence that a 5/3 structure doesn't exist at all. It's also kinda amusing that many in this forum trade by looking for breakouts or certian patterns that occur, which is exactly what EW teaches.
> 
> So far in the context of this 'debate', Boggo's input seems quite reasonable.




OWG glad you dropped in. The discussion is not about "evidence that a 5/3 structure doesn't exist at all". Especially after its played out.

Its about whether its actually used successfully to trade by the gurus that pimp it. Especially the endlessly complex application that seems to be hopelessly lost in the *idea *rather than the real *application*.


----------



## lukeaye (12 September 2009)

Well i have shown three charts which i think have elliot potential, lets see if it plays out.

Im sure there are many more that can be identified. its not rocket science.


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> Well i have shown three charts which i think have elliot potential, lets see if it plays out.
> 
> Im sure there are many more that can be identified. its not rocket science.




Thank God your on our side.


----------



## Boggo (12 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> uh?
> 
> showing one winning trade that shows no exit , shows no proof of still holding .......for all we know he sold out for a loss .......
> 
> ...




You are probably right nun, all this EW stuff is a waste of having to actually do some homework, I am just gonna go long where you see a short from now on 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=472368&postcount=2024

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=472372&postcount=2025

No offense taken nun


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> OWG glad you dropped in. The discussion is not about "evidence that a 5/3 structure doesn't exist at all". Especially after its played out.
> 
> Its about whether its actually used successfully to trade by the gurus that pimp it. Especially the endlessly complex application that seems to be hopelessly lost in the *idea *rather than the real *application*.




T/H what exactly do you want to see?
Do you want to see a string of trades with the entry and exits based purely on the wave counts.
Youd have to include fib as they determine likely target areas.

Set the parameters.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

Boggo said:


> You are probably right nun, all this EW stuff is a waste of having to actually do some homework, I am just gonna go long where you see a short from now on
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=472368&postcount=2024
> 
> ...




no i dont think its a waste at all actually , good and bad can be taken from it 

if you think going long when i go short is going to work better than your EW , you go for it . i was wrong , woopeee doo.....actually i get it wrong fairly regurly but thats a cross i have to bear

but im not scared to post in real time, right or wrong .i dont wait until hindsight proves im a star to post up my trade ideas/entrys.etc etc 

glad you can view things  with a bit of humour


----------



## OzWaveGuy (12 September 2009)

Ah, so it's not about whether EW is valid as a principle TH? Hmmm, the impression I have from you and many others in various threads is that it isn't valid.

So the real question your asking is if it's a valid trading tool? It seems that you haven't looked hard enough, as there's plenty of evidence that it is. Even the EWI website has an extensive video on using EW in Forex trading. As mentioned in numerous posts, EW isn't for everyone!

Need to head back to the micro, need to top up on popcorn. Let me know the final result of this quest.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

anyways all biitchin aside 


how about some LIVE trades posted using your methods of EW in a live trading situation .NOT after and telling us you did it . i mean as you take the trade or asap after and showing your thoughts on the count ,stops, exits etcetcetce

if its too much work thats fine........i dont post charts as i find it too much hassle so do understand .happy to provide entrys and exits as they happen as usual tho


----------



## mazzatelli (12 September 2009)

LOL nun
We all know your endless requests for live entries/exits by other members is so you can piggyback those trades :

NO free lunch for you!! jk


----------



## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

mazzatelli said:


> LOL nun
> We all know your endless requests for live entries/exits by other members is so you can piggyback those trades :
> 
> NO free lunch for you!! jk




LOL bollox 

i can make enough mistakes without anybody elses help


----------



## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

hang on .............

thinking a bit deeper now as to what you said mazzatelli

 would it be a bad thing for them anyways to be honest? 

it is not my style to follow anyone in a trade without it being MY trade but if they was "piggybacked " after there posted entrys it would not be detrimental anyways in fact may be found to be advantageous to them seeing as they already on

also first to exit and posted if any silly buggar was following there trades word for word


----------



## tech/a (13 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> T/H what exactly do you want to see?
> Do you want to see a string of trades with the entry and exits based purely on the wave counts.
> Youd have to include fib as they determine likely target areas.
> 
> Set the parameters.




T/H you want to do this?
Let me know.

Or is it Oz that you want to see in action? (application of analysis)
Frankly I wouldnt mind seeing how someone else trades Elliott.


----------



## Trembling Hand (13 September 2009)

OzWaveGuy said:


> Ah, so it's not about whether EW is valid as a principle TH? Hmmm, the impression I have from you and many others in various threads is that it isn't valid.



 No No. I have no doubt that most can get a static chart from the past and make it conform to a set of many different principles. Just like someone overlaying an indicator and getting it 100% correct. It happens often here.


OzWaveGuy said:


> So the real question your asking is if it's a valid trading tool? It seems that you haven't looked hard enough, as there's plenty of evidence that it is.



 Oh but I have. And that's where my doubts come from. This thread started from wavepicker having to cyberjerk his own "analysis". I cannot see why someone who has the market confirming their greatness with real $$$$'s would need to delude themselves like that 

And further,

A look at you last year of being wrong about the XAO with what seems to be endlessly complex yet completely wrong calls is further hints that EWs  may be more of a hobby than a real trading tool.

Then I get post from Boggo directing me to blogs that DO NOT show all calls in real time. Only after they have played out. Thats a JOKE.

Now I know Nick (thechartist) uses EW. And actually trades his calls. And I know that Tech incorporates or uses it to guide his real trades but seemingly has _better _tools for most trades. When EW "works" its because the user happens to have much experience in being a _good _trader. That is its the traders experience that uses a tool to frame R:R. Not the BS endlessly complex game of EW to try and figure out the market. Like I have been saying for some time TA doesn't work it just confirms biases. And therefore complex analysis is wasted, maybe even counter productive.

Do you find that the more work on figuring out the market with EW helps your trading? Do you trade?


----------



## nulla nulla (13 September 2009)

Sounds like a "hindsight" theory to me. If it is so reliable, why didn't it predict the comming of the global crisis? If it is so reliable how does hedge fund shorting of "over leveraged" stocks during the sell down slip under their radar? 
The reality is, if enough people believe in it, there will be buys or sells at the appropriate point by the believers making it a self fulfilling prophesy. The believers must have become disbelievers, eh!


----------



## tech/a (13 September 2009)

nulla nulla said:


> Sounds like a "hindsight" theory to me. If it is so reliable, *why didn't it predict the comming of the global crisis?* If it is so reliable how does hedge fund shorting of "over leveraged" stocks during the sell down slip under their radar?
> !




*It did and its all posted on ASF.*

It didn't predict the GFC it just showed that the XJO chart was at a very important high which indicated a strong corrective move.




> The reality is, if enough people believe in it, there will be buys or sells at the appropriate point by the believers making it a self fulfilling prophesy. The believers must have become disbelievers, eh




Belief.
Its got nothing to do with belief and everything to do with application.
Few actually understand the method and even those that do many have no idea how to apply it to profitable trading (Which is what T/H is on about).

To many its "Seeming" complexity and ambiguity lures those with a propensity for the complex.
I have witnessed many who simply analyse for the sake of analysis. Attempting to perfect imperfection---which is the beauty and advantage of dynamic analysis.
They would never risk a cent trading. Because it would be exactly that a RISK.

Those that can trade Elliott or any other form of analysis dont RISK a cent.


----------



## Bobby (13 September 2009)

For those who think EW or Gann will  give them an edge '  try it !
Both are a crock of sh*t , just ask any two EW Guru's to come up with the same count   

As for Tech supporting it , the guy has  depth as a trader anyway ,  maybe skewing it somehow with his real skills ?


----------



## Boggo (13 September 2009)

Bobby said:


> For those who think EW or Gann will  give them an edge '  try it !
> Both are a crock of sh*t , just ask any two EW Guru's to come up with the same count
> 
> As for Tech supporting it , the guy has  depth as a trader anyway ,  maybe skewing it somehow with his real skills ?




Obviously its taken nearly four years to work out that it doesn't work on speccies Bobby, you are correct 

This is from Dec 2005 !


Bobby said:


> Just read the book & it sure has the  stimulus factor!
> 
> I'll read it again as there is much to take in, the books integrity shines through
> as Nick talks you through some of his own trades ( most refreshing to see ).
> ...





Has your view of Nick's book also changed or have you got one these thingy's that TH has got or is looking for


----------



## Kryzz (13 September 2009)

Isn't EW just another reason to enter the market? what you do after is what counts, ie trade management, i've seen quite a few trades on the chartist setups based on EW, the ones that do run far outweigh the losers, the residual being profit obviously


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## Boggo (13 September 2009)

Kryzz said:


> Isn't EW just another reason to enter the market? what you do after is what counts, ie trade management, i've seen quite a few trades on the chartist setups based on EW, the ones that do run far outweigh the losers, the residual being profit obviously




That's it in a nutshell shaun, nothing mystical or requiring voodoo dolls or headless chickens.

The thing that takes the time is the ability to glance at a chart and discard it, monitor it or trade it.

In most cases the stop points are easier to see, the entry is usually obvious and if it fails then use the stop, if it runs up above the 100% risk consider creeping the stop up with the aim of getting it to breakeven, from there on you have a free trade (see BHP example below, my stop is now above breakeven ).

Its no different to flags, pennants etc etc except that in most cases is does follow a pattern where a target point is predicted based on a set of rules combined with past pattern and crowd behaviour.

This is from Robert Miner's "Dynamic Trading" ch3-53...

_The beauty and significance of R. N. Elliott's work is that he recognized that markets are composed of groups of people that respond as crowd behavior in the same way that other social groups respond to a cycle of events. There is a process that evolves in almost every cycle of crowd behavior that runs its course. This process results in a fairly predictable pattern of behavior of cycles of optimism and pessimism. This process and pattern of behavior is represented on price charts of financial markets, as the price charts are simply reflections of the state of the psychology of the group participating in the market._

(click to expand)


----------



## nunthewiser (13 September 2009)

another great example of using EW as a trading tool in hindsight ......


----------



## nunthewiser (13 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> anyways all biitchin aside
> 
> 
> how about some LIVE trades posted using your methods of EW in a live trading situation .NOT after and telling us you did it . i mean as you take the trade or asap after and showing your thoughts on the count ,stops, exits etcetcetce
> ...




any of you EW traders up for it ? 

im not here to PERSONALLY give you a hard time , i am merely intrested to see its validity as a LIVE trading tool instead of a hindsight trading tool as is all i see here

also i couldnt give a flyin floozie if the calls right or wrong . i KNOW myself no one is accurate 100% of the time . im wrong as much as im right , there will be NO heckling regarding the direction of your calls .

merely intrested to see it live NOT after as usual


----------



## Bobby (13 September 2009)

Boggo said:


> Obviously its taken nearly four years to work out that it doesn't work on speccies Bobby, you are correct
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Well Boggo you must be a fan   would you like my autograph ?  if not can I have yours  

As for Nicks book , well now with hind- site its ok just skip the EW  .

As for the thingy's , yep I'm now into that , lets call it the *Mood Analise's *   , the sheep will guide you when to enter   

Kind wishes  .


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## Boggo (13 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> any of you EW traders up for it ?




Not sure about others but I am not the least bit interested nun I did the books and online courses for me (selfish aren't I).
The charts I post are to display the process to those who might be interested in doing the hard yards, not to tease you.

A few suggestions though, join the chartist and you can actually participate in actual real trades, learn EW and do it yourself or get yourself one these thingamebobs and watch the mula roll in


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## nunthewiser (13 September 2009)

but hindsight trading ideas are ok ...... i understand 

ok no worries m8 

cheers


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## Nick Radge (14 September 2009)

A lot of irony in this post.



> any of you EW traders up for it ?




Firstly, I started a practical Elliott Wave trading thread to do exactly as TH has asked. I was happy to sit there and post the trades ahead of time for as long as it took to prove its validity as a trading tool. However it was shot down in flames before the first setup was even triggered. So I'm kind of wondering why it is you guys want it so badly on the one hand yet won't allow it to occur on the other. 

Secondly, TH, I have no idea what started this so called debate and what WP said to get up your goat. However, I will say that Elliott Wave is a set of patterns, some complex, some not, from which to base trades and analysis. Yet it is also _*you*_ that preaches Dilernia's stuff as useful, yet the irony is that its exactly the same; a set of complex patterns from which to source some reliability and make trades. They are one and the same whether you like it or not so apart from your own bias I'm unsure why you're happy to kicking one on the floor and riding the other? Unfortunately an argument for complexities of one being less than the other doesn't cut it - there is independent proof out there on that so it can be fully qualified.

I agree that EW is nothing more than a crutch from which to base trades and yes, I agree that one needn't go into that kind of depth to qualify a trade. However, its also proven that people do want that kind of analysis (regardless of its usefulness) because those that supply it wouldn't have a business otherwise. I have said this before. If everyone thought EW was a load a crap then they wouldn't have a business, yes EWI is by far one of the largest newsletters in the planet and I know for a fact that they do not recycle new users each and every year like a ponzi scheme. They have tens of thousands who sign up year after year. For these people to sign up they must be getting something - whether they actually need it or not is agreeably debatable.

I have no interest in selling Elliott Wave. Only a small part of The Chartist is Elliott Wave. I post my positions each and every day - currently all 70 of them - from three portfolios none of which are based on EW.


----------



## Frank D (14 September 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> Yet it is also _*you*_ that preaches Dilernia's stuff as useful, yet
> the irony is that its exactly the same; a set of complex patterns from
> which to source some reliability and make trades. They are one and the
> same whether you like it or not




They are nothing like each other.

Reliable patterns have to be set in stone, so that the levels are
 hardcoded, which in turn makes them reliable. 

That's the only way you'll test the validity of the pattern, method or system.

A reliable pattern could be anything, as long as it’s hardcoded whether 
using a number of indicators to build a systematic system or a 
discretionary method.

A reliable pattern then becomes a 'set-up', which then is trade
 managed thereafter, and more robust when optimized to a reliable Trend.

Reliable patterns in turn will produce reliable results (probability).

I’m yet to see a reliable patterns in EW, other than subjective patterns 
base on a number curve fitted  wave counts.

Only god knows how you test the validity of EW.



> They have tens of thousands who sign up year after year. For these people to sign up they must be getting something




I hope so, but marketing is a wonderful tool


----------



## tech/a (14 September 2009)

> Only god knows how you test the validity of EW.




The same way you check yours!


----------



## Trembling Hand (14 September 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> TH, I have no idea what started this so called debate and what WP said to get up your goat.



 Well the so called debate actually didn't start with me. I was just the sucker that happened to be on top of the list of post pulled out from the XAO thread into this one when we were all laughing our ar$es off at WavePicker finally getting booted out for creating about 8 different personalities praising his own work.



Nick Radge said:


> However, I will say that Elliott Wave is a set of patterns, some complex, some not, from which to base trades and analysis. Yet it is also _*you*_ that preaches Dilernia's stuff as useful, yet the irony is that its exactly the same; a set of complex patterns from which to source some reliability and make trades. They are one and the same whether you like it or not so apart from your own bias I'm unsure why you're happy to kicking one on the floor and riding the other? Unfortunately an argument for complexities of one being less than the other doesn't cut it - there is independent proof out there on that so it can be fully qualified.



 Not true. I happily preach Franks work _*and*_ yours because they seem to have the basis of good trading in them. Frame works for right- keep riding, wrong - get out and try again. With Franks stuff I like it because its unique and I find work thats grow from current observations valid. His work also has some of the same observation that I have come to see independently before I even knew his methods(which by the way I actually don't know much of), the stuff about S/R moving forward as time does, rotation back from 5 day moves and the complete lack of Overbought/Oversold crap etc.



Nick Radge said:


> I have no interest in selling Elliott Wave. Only a small part of The Chartist is Elliott Wave. I post my positions each and every day - currently all 70 of them - from three portfolios none of which are based on EW.



 See that's the interesting bit for me and really the crux of my point (if I have one). That's where my curiosity/scepticism comes from about EW being the ducks guts. And there are many that think it is here. I reckon I could trade for a while based on just a bar chart with signals only from a RSI. But I don't. Because its too restrictive. When you are restricted to the rules you are forced to use them.


----------



## Nick Radge (14 September 2009)

> EW being the ducks guts. And there are many that think it is here.



No method is the be all end all method. Anyone who suggests so is simply arrogant. 

What would be interesting is that I make 100 trades using EW and Dilernia makes 100 trades using his technique. Side by side. Unfortunately its not going to happen...


----------



## nunthewiser (14 September 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> A lot of irony in this post.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




my posts in that thread u started were of the same nature as now 

i pointed out that the trade example you gave was a hindsight entry as the stock had already moved at least a few days before you posted it in ASF 

i have no doubts on your trading ability but sure am getting bored with all this hindsight validation of ppls techniques

have a nice day


----------



## nunthewiser (14 September 2009)

well .. 

after evaluating the posts in this thread i have come to this conclusion 

as no one in ASF is willing to show OR has shown EW used as a live trading tool , only a hindsight trading tool ........

i draw this conclusion 

 Elliot Wave makes a great discussion tool but is not used as a live trading tool 

thankyou all for your participation


----------



## Sean K (14 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> well ..
> 
> after evaluating the posts in this thread i have come to this conclusion
> 
> ...




I agree, but it has been seen to be a tool _used in conjunction with many other tools_ which may be useful.

By itself, it's probably as good as H&S formations.


----------



## tech/a (14 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> my posts in that thread u started were of the same nature as now
> 
> i pointed out that the trade example you gave was a hindsight entry as the stock had already moved at least a few days before you posted it in ASF
> 
> ...




Nun.

Clearly you dont have any concept of how to trade.
Of course a trade will set up before a trade is taken.
There may well be some days of trading in our proposed direction before we take the trade and on exit some days against us before we exit.

Why on earth cant those who want to see trading using Elliott keep quiet for a few weeks to let those who are taking the time to demonstrate the trading principal---do their thing.
Quality posters cant be bothered with all the rubbish. So they just cease to contribute.--- they dont have to.

Proof to you NUN is exact tops and exact bottoms nothing less.

There's no analysis on the planet that will get you that.
I'm interested in how you trade then *NUN*.
Or dont you actually trade.
You to *Kenna's*-- whats your method which clearly has no hindsite?
Or you dont trade as well?

Proof to most everyone who has an interest in profitable trading is application of analysis--*any analysis *which returns consistent profit.


If I was Radge *AGAIN* I wouldnt waste my time.


----------



## Sean K (14 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> You to *Kenna's*-- whats your method which clearly has no hindsite?
> Or you dont trade as well?



My trades and stock investments are in my ASF blog. All as live as possible.


----------



## tech/a (14 September 2009)

Question is whats your method?


----------



## nunthewiser (14 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> Nun.
> 
> Clearly you dont have any concept of how to trade.




LOL clearly , i forgot you was the only real trader here . lol you crack me up 



> Of course a trade will set up before a trade is taken.
> There may well be some days of trading in our proposed direction before we take the trade and on exit some days against us before we exit.
> 
> Why on earth cant those who want to see trading using Elliott keep quiet for a few weeks to let those who are taking the time to demonstrate the trading principal---do their thing.




thats great tech but my argument IS that it seems HERE on ASF those using EW INCLUDING nicks thread that ppl tend to only add the trade AND entrys in hindsight . CBA trade for example as posted in his thread , the entry was posted WAY after the price had moved in the favourable direction , now thats well and good saying it was posted in "the chartist "live but it wasnt posted here live so hence my ORIGINAL post to him in that thread 



> Proof to you NUN is exact tops and exact bottoms nothing less.




no im asking for proof as a LIVE trading tool , not a hindsight trading tool as you guys seeem to like posting



> I'm interested in how you trade then *NUN*.




my trades , entrys/exits /reasons /strategies are dotted all over these pages , i cant help it if you dont take the time to read them .



> Or dont you actually trade.




you are the only real trader here



> Proof to most everyone who has an interest in profitable trading is application of analysis--*any analysis *which returns consistent profit.




but the only profitable trading i see here from you real traders is in hindsight , so please forgive me for pointing out that i think EW is a great discussion tool but not a trading tool . i am yet to be convinced otherwise as it seems no one wants to prove me wrong , all i get told is to subscribe to the "chartist" to see ... sorry guys but we are at ASF just in case you didnt notice and the question/request is posted HERE 



> If I was Radge *AGAIN* I wouldnt waste my time.




well thats his call


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## Sean K (14 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> Question is whats your method?



Discretionary Fundamental Technical Analysis. 

You have probably missed all my posts on stock analysis tech because it's not your cuppa. Picking fundamentally undervalued stocks and creaming them seems to not be your thing. See YT for a lesson there. 

And as far as TA goes, S&R and trend is all that matters, imo. The rest is a distraction.

Buying and selling into stocks based on TA that you have a fundamental understanding of seems to be OK for me.


----------



## nunthewiser (14 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> anyways all biitchin aside
> 
> 
> how about some LIVE trades posted using your methods of EW in a live trading situation .NOT after and telling us you did it . i mean as you take the trade or asap after and showing your thoughts on the count ,stops, exits etcetcetce
> ...






nunthewiser said:


> any of you EW traders up for it ?
> 
> im not here to PERSONALLY give you a hard time , i am merely intrested to see its validity as a LIVE trading tool instead of a hindsight trading tool as is all i see here
> 
> ...





thats all i asked 


it seems its easier to argue with me over it rather than actually supply evidence EW is used as a LIVE trading tool 

as you were and thankyou for confirming my thoughts 

i have no more comments here for now


----------



## tech/a (14 September 2009)

> Discretionary Fundamental Technical Analysis.




And you reckon Elliott Wave is ambiguous.

Ive looked at your Blog.
many comments like 
I sold out of 1/3rd of XYZ---LAST WEEK
Bought more of ZXY-----LAST WEEK.
Thats as close as possible to live?? Acceptable to you?

Nun.

I would reckon that Radge and myself could supply countless trading statements to amuse your small mind for hrs showing realtime trades which are/were profitable.
Supplimented with a chart showing how it all panned out.
Both winners and losers.--Net profitable.

If you want to pay for that privilage then front up.
If not shut up and let a few trades run their course.

Its a waste of time the only people interested are you and Kenna's.
All we are doing is talking to people who like arguement.

Back to work.


----------



## nunthewiser (14 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> ?
> 
> Nun.
> 
> ...




settle down tech/a .no need for insults .

i couldnt care less about trading statements AS some have been proven in the past to be mere fabrications ....... live trades tell alll , right or wrong 

why would i pay for another site when the question/request is asked HERE at ASF ?

and yes i noticed everytime EW is questioned here it brings on hostile response and argumentive attacks by those that preach it 

have a great day


----------



## Sean K (14 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> And you reckon Elliott Wave is ambiguous.
> 
> Ive looked at your Blog.
> many comments like
> ...



I agree, it's less than useful recently for anyone wanting to use it as a trading method, which it is not, and was never intended to be. I don't claim to have a 'system' for anyone. It's just an ongoing list of buys and sells and comments for anyone interested. At one point it was live, but it's hard from Peru. I'm sure you understand that. Your 'system' is on another forum, so I never got to experience it. Shame.


----------



## Timmy (14 September 2009)

motorway said:


> See it as a straight Jacket
> 
> The best opportunities
> might well be where the count is totally opague






Trembling Hand said:


> EW ...  its too restrictive.




I think these are two interesting comments (basically saying the same thing).  Not that EW doesn't work, but that it is too limiting and restrictive?


----------



## satanoperca (14 September 2009)

Just learning EW to add to my trading tool collective. Find it fascinating along with FIB numbers. Nicks book and his subscription have made it easier to understand as his comments are current. Without this I would have given up. Understanding it and applying it do not necessarily go hand in hand.

To the question of whether it is not a live trading tool then give those that use it to trade with give some insight with some live trades so that those of us that do not understand it are given a chance to do so.

It does not need to denigrate into a questions of who has the biggest one, leave that for the footy field and keep the discussion of EW.

Cheers


----------



## lasty (14 September 2009)

Every sunken ship has a chartroom and HMAS ELLIOTT is no different.

The major decision with every chartist is at what point do they abandon ship when taking on water.
Most FIB's or EW'ers tend to listen to the band playing on deck alot longer than others who havent hung around to see the inevitable.

If it works for you do it.


----------



## tech/a (14 September 2009)

lasty said:


> Every sunken ship has a chartroom and HMAS ELLIOTT is no different.
> 
> The major decision with every chartist is at what point do they abandon ship when taking on water.
> Most FIB's or EW'ers tend to listen to the band playing on deck alot longer than others who havent hung around to see the inevitable.
> ...




I think thats fair enough and says it all.
Those that can will.
Those that cant will join the majority.

I've wasted too much time on this thread.


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## Trembling Hand (14 September 2009)

lasty said:


> The major decision with every chartist is at what point do they abandon ship when taking on water.
> Most FIB's or EW'ers tend to listen to the band playing on deck alot longer than others who havent hung around to see the inevitable.




Hahahahahahaha!

Nice one.

and with that I think I will jump on board my 4000th post life raft and paddle off in search of bigger more rewarding wars to fight.

Anyone wont to work in a prop shop in Honkers?? TA traders need not apply :

grazie e arrivederci 

or maybe that should be 再见


----------



## nunthewiser (14 September 2009)

IF thats a goodbye TH

thankyou for all input and trading knowledge donated here over the time 

and yeah seems that your original thread starter post was correct after all 

take care


----------



## wayneL (14 September 2009)

TH:

不是颤抖的手。 不要让蠢货让您担心。

All:

The big question is whether EW improves trading beyond other simpler pattern analysis... or even other forms of TA.

I've said it before, I think some correctives are great patterns to trade. If I see them I'll trade them, but why bother spending all the time labelling?

IMO EW is a useful map of the market... but does it predict likely outcomes?

No more than any other pattern/fib/whatever method IMO. I trade *some* of the patterns because I've been trained in them and therefore see them quite easily. But one thing I refuse to do is force a count on something... actually I refuse to even label it... what for?

It's one method, it's a crutch, just like all T/A. Nothing wrong with that, we all need a "logic" to enter and exit. But success depends on how the trader creates the boundaries around the analysis, i.e. the entries and exits.

A good EW trader would be a good tiddly winks trader. It still depends on the trader to make it turn a profit.


----------



## nulla nulla (14 September 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Hahahahahahaha!
> 
> Nice one.
> 
> ...




Hhhmmmm.....Is that an...Elliot Wave..goodbye?


----------



## Nick Radge (15 September 2009)

> A good EW trader would be a good tiddly winks trader. It still depends on the trader to make it turn a profit.




Yes. Agree.


----------



## nunthewiser (16 September 2009)

POSTED BY OZWAVE GUY in another thread



> To be brutally honest, you've inserted your repetitive arguments into everyone one of those 300 threads. You've made your thoughts clear on EW, so now let the folks who enjoy the analysis get something from it.
> 
> If you want to ask rational questions, search the 300 threads for an answer, if you can't find it feel free or PM the author or post a sensible question.




i have asked many question re EW in lots of threads YES , thats true 

the reason why i ask these questions is because NOT once yet have they been answered , i have asked NUMEROUS times to show that EW used as a trading tool, , asked for trades posted live BUT no all i get is hostile replies and more beating around the bush OR hindsight crap that no good for bugga all except the author to try and fluff his feathers 

lots of talk about nothing but not willing to post a simple bloody live trade 

last post to do with EW as until shown otherwise , basically i reckon you use it mainly to grab a bloody conversation and dribble for a while rather than actually use it to trade .....

my thoughts are concluded , as you were


----------



## Boggo (16 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> lots of talk about nothing but not willing to post a simple bloody live trade




From your little exercise on the "Potential Breakout" thread this morning I would stick to trying to master the difficult task of posting a simple chart rather than trying to stuff up a good debate where items associated with EW were being thrashed out.

Try to overcome the chart display task instead of taking cheap shots the genuine efforts of others 

Fair go eh nun...


----------



## nunthewiser (16 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> the reason why i ask these questions is because NOT once yet have they been answered , i have asked NUMEROUS times to show that EW used as a trading tool, , asked for trades posted live BUT no all i get is hostile replies and more beating around the bush






Boggo said:


> From your little exercise on the "Potential Breakout" thread this morning I would stick to trying to master the difficult task of posting a simple chart rather than trying to stuff up a good debate where items associated with EW were being thrashed out.
> 
> Try to overcome the chart display task instead of taking cheap shots the genuine efforts of others




and there is my point exactly 

thanks boggo 

as you were


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (16 September 2009)

I would like to see a live trade also, if anyone has the time to post one up.


----------



## Bobby (17 September 2009)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I would like to see a live trade also, if anyone has the time to post one up.




Sam ,
You will never see a live EW trade from the zealots unfortunately


----------



## Kryzz (17 September 2009)

Aristocrat setup would have been triggered today, i know this may look like a hindsight trade, but i have delayed data as i dont have a data feed to amibroker yet so this is the chart i saw and the setup i saw just 5 minutes ago, 1 bar/traders trick entry used. (Yes this is a paper trade in case anyone was gonna jump on me bout that). 

Wave 1 or A completed, a-b-c correction followed = trading opportunity

Not trying to 'defend' ew, just enjoy looking/learning about different trading methodologies. Breakouts are my preferred method of technical analysis too btw.

cheers 

shaun


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## Nick Radge (17 September 2009)

*BOQ*
Buy on intra day break of $11.26
Place protective stop at $10.25
Initial target $12.50 but will revise in due course according to my trade management rules.

1 trade doesn't make a success story....









_This email may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Nick Radge (17 September 2009)

*CSR*
Buy on intra day break of $2.00
Place a protective stop at $1.85
Take profit at $2.30 or unless stated otherwise.

2 trades don't make a success story...







_This email may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## adt100 (17 September 2009)

What about a 1000 Nick? Sorry couldn't resist! 

Thanks for the effort guys am sure there are hundreds of semi lurkers like myself who will and do benefit from seeing how experienced traders go about their work irrespective if anyone agrees with their approaches. 

Time given freely should always be appreciated


----------



## nunthewiser (17 September 2009)

yep thankyou Guys 

I follow CSR , good trading stock


----------



## explod (17 September 2009)

adt100 said:


> What about a 1000 Nick? Sorry couldn't resist!
> 
> Thanks for the effort guys am sure there are hundreds of semi lurkers like myself who will and do benefit from seeing how experienced traders go about their work irrespective if anyone agrees with their approaches.
> 
> Time given freely should always be appreciated





Agree wholeheartedly.   The community of ASF, particularly the experienced ones like Nick et al., are what makes this site an investor/trader paradise.

And approaches, there are "more angles than a corrugated roof" (an old one)


----------



## Nick Radge (17 September 2009)

I have even put my finger in to keep an interest...


----------



## Frank D (17 September 2009)

*CSR monthly and Weekly*

Thanks for the tip Nick...

I had a look at CSR, fits in with a nice set-up....

September 50% level support @ $1.89 & 3-week low support

above 1.97 on today's open

all it needs now is a daily close above $2.00 and I would model a move towards the September-October targets and 3rd Quarter highs @ $2.41.

I think in the short-term where Friday closes in relation to $2.00 (support 1.96) is what I would like to see (close above)


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## nunthewiser (17 September 2009)

Nick,

thanks for the live trade input

i notice on there that you have entered KAR also ........ this hit my page as a "potential breakout setup" trade today also, im trying to fit a count to its previous action to see if it was an EW based entry ....... i cannot see one from my seat but that doesent really mean much ...

how much in % terms would you base your use of EW when taking on a trade over say 100 trades ?

thankyou in advance


----------



## Nick Radge (17 September 2009)

No joy with entering BOQ today so we'll keep at it tomorrow.

Long CSR with a weak close. One tip with trading A-B-C pattern is that the move off the low should be clean and sharp. It shouldn't pause. Any stall means a potential failure. We'll run it for another day and assess the close again.


----------



## tech/a (17 September 2009)

Can I play!
Some AGET Wave 5 Trades

MCR

BOQ was also on the search 

These two were the best from tonights search.




The AGET Chart

Click to expand.


----------



## Bronte (17 September 2009)

opcorn:


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## Nick Radge (24 September 2009)

I have been interstate and not watching this thread. 

CSR looking poor. As stated in an earlier post, this method of trading dictates that any upside should be immediate and have no pause. Whenever price stalls one should take defensive action and its clear that CSR is not intending to follow through. 

BOQ has triggered but am not on it.

I am watching AMP in the coming week and will post a chart when the setup is in order.

LLC also looking interesting but may need a little more time.


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## nunthewiser (24 September 2009)

how did you go with your KAR trade ? 

re CSR i am actually looking at it as a support bounce trade from here with a nice low% loss on stoploss point IF support is broken


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## Nick Radge (24 September 2009)

Out yesterday with some slippage. The stop was at $10.60.


----------



## nunthewiser (24 September 2009)

cool ........ well done

thx for sharing


----------



## Ato (24 September 2009)

I dont have anything amazing to add to this thread, so apologies out the way first. 

That said, I've been reading this thread (and others on EW) and am finding it quite fascinating as a newbie to trading.

I've picked up your book, Nick, Adaptive Analysis and am hoping to get stuck into it this weekend while in Tokyo. It's nice to see some of your live trades here in this thread, and the information that you post is really helpful to understanding trading.


----------



## Chris45 (25 September 2009)

Those interested in EW might be interested in this free "Ultimate Technical Analysis" eBook:
http://gainesville.elliottwave.com/t/80840/2477907/6608/0/

Free membership required to download.


----------



## Nick Radge (25 September 2009)

Out on the open for a < 1R loss. Next trade....


----------



## Boggo (27 September 2009)

A concise 52 page freebie that covers the basics of EW, Fibonacci, trendlines, indicators and stops available here...

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/ultimate-technical-analysis-handbook/default.aspx?code=36028


----------



## Nick Radge (29 September 2009)

FWIW, BOQ activated a week or so ago and popped higher today. Stop now moved to $11.20.


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## doctorj (30 September 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> FWIW, BOQ activated a week or so ago and popped higher today. Stop now moved to $11.20.



Pictures are pretty, but in isolation of very little value.  Have the elliot-driven trades you've physically taken been net profitable over the past 12-18 months?


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## Sean K (30 September 2009)

Since the EW'ers have been kind enough to put their live trading calls up, using EW, I'm taken the time to collate them to see how they go.


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## tech/a (30 September 2009)

Kenna's MCR correct.
Another for your list 
AOE.


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## doctorj (30 September 2009)

kennas said:


> Since the EW'ers have been kind enough to put their live trading calls up, using EW, I'm taken the time to collate them to see how they go.



Good idea kennas.  I can't think of a better way to give the hyperbole  and emotion that's all too common with EW some real substance.  It'll be interesting to see who continues to post their calls now they know they'll be tracked.

I hope EW is proven to work.


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## tech/a (30 September 2009)

doctorj said:


> Good idea kennas.  I can't think of a better way to give the hyperbole  and emotion that's all too common with EW some real substance.  It'll be interesting to see who continues to post their calls now they know they'll be tracked.
> 
> I hope EW is proven to work.




Its a trading setup.
Like all analysis has a beginning middle and end.
But its not about the analysis although most everyone I know thinks it is.
Watch Radge carefully---you'll learn more from what you dont hear him say!
Cryptic I know but after 15 yrs thats where most of my best info has come from--I urge you all to let the man do his thing and watch *BOTH* success and failure--- then learn from *BOTH*

Currently we are seeing trades based on wave 4 setups---to possible wave 5
There are many others like hopping on Wave 3s. Elliotts NOT about picking tops and bottoms but more about "Where a trade is at in its life" *in my view anyway*
If intersted I can add a couple more as they come up to the mix.

Radge is a far better exponent of E/W than myself I just add mine to the mix.
May well see the difference in result from Pro to apprentice.


----------



## Sean K (30 September 2009)

Added AOE tech.

Thanks for contributing to this, I'm happy just to record the results and learn.


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## swm79 (30 September 2009)

> you'll learn more from what you dont hear him say!... thats where most of my best info has come from




hahahaha.... no disrespect; i listen to Nick and REALLY respect him. I also agree (somehow ) with you tech and have learnt a lot from you guys about EW.... but that has got to be the quote of the century!!!


----------



## Kryzz (30 September 2009)

updated chart for ALL (up >3% atm)


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (30 September 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> I have been interstate and not watching this thread.
> 
> CSR looking poor. As stated in an earlier post, this method of trading dictates that any upside should be immediate and have no pause. Whenever price stalls one should take defensive action and its clear that CSR is not intending to follow through.
> 
> ...




Did you get on AMP Nick? It seems to have punched up a bit yesterday and today.


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## Sean K (30 September 2009)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Did you get on AMP Nick? It seems to have punched up a bit yesterday and today.



Yeah, would be nice to get an update from a pro trader on this one. Looking forward to another chart. 

There's a few things happening with AMP and I've been in it since the higher low and break through very long term downtrend. That inverse H&S and break through 5.50 was a pretty good signal too. 

I assume from an EW perspective you are trading a potential W5 from here.


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## Nick Radge (30 September 2009)

No. It didn't meet my criteria. It was a good Wolfe Wave trade though.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (30 September 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> No. It didn't meet my criteria. It was a good Wolfe Wave trade though.



Not to mention a 2 leg down setup after a protracted move. 
Also an abc down move which is part of ew?


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## Nick Radge (30 September 2009)

It doesn't meet EW requirements on a number of fronts:

1. wave-c is not equal to wave-a
2. The retracement didn't tag the typical retracement zone
3. Time taken to complete wave-4 is too short compared to wave-2. 

This all suggests to me that it will be a more complex corrective pattern and should not move to new highs just yet. 

Now I could be wrong and it could skip straight higher, but at the end of the day the pattern doesn't fulfill the trade plan requirements so was not a completed setup.

A wolfe wave is like a stunted a-b-c or more like a descending wedge. In this case wave-c is shorter than wave-a giving the wedge appearance. But even then its not quite a perfect example here.


----------



## swm79 (30 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> Its a trading setup.
> Like all analysis has a beginning middle and end.
> But its not about the analysis although most everyone I know thinks it is.
> Watch Radge carefully---you'll learn more from what you dont hear him say!
> ...




maybe this would have been enough Tech: 

"The man who says it can't be done should not interrupt the person doing it."


----------



## dutchie (30 September 2009)

doctorj said:


> It'll be interesting to see who continues to post their calls now they know they'll be tracked.




Gee I hope Nick and Tech pass the test.


----------



## Chris45 (30 September 2009)

doctorj said:


> It'll be interesting to see who continues to post their calls now they know they'll be tracked.



What would be even more interesting is for some of those (dare I say "skeptics") who use non-EW techniques (triangles, support & resistance, MAs etc) to post their calls, including triggers, stops & targets, like tech/a did with AOE and for a reputable unbiased observer like kennas to track them as well so we can see how the various techniques compare. I wonder if they would be up to the challenge?

(There have been plenty of alerts but no actual details as far as I am aware, but happy to be corrected if I'm wrong.)


----------



## doctorj (30 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> But its not about the analysis although most everyone I know thinks it is.



It's a tool to make money, isn't it?


tech/a said:


> Cryptic I know but after 15 yrs thats where most of my best info has come from--I urge you all to let the man do his thing and watch BOTH success and failure--- then learn from BOTH



I'm not sure, but it sounds like you're glad kennas has volunteered his time.  By working out which ones work and which don't we can go into the WHY with more rigorous analysis.


			
				Chris45 said:
			
		

> What would be even more interesting is for some of those (dare I say "skeptics") who use non-EW techniques (triangles, support & resistance, MAs etc) to post their calls



This thread isn't about whether TA or FA or whatever works, it's about Elliott Wave.  Even if alternatives fail, it doesn't make EW a good strategy by default.


----------



## nunthewiser (30 September 2009)

Chris45 said:


> What would be even more interesting is for some of those (dare I say "skeptics") who use non-EW techniques (triangles, support & resistance, MAs etc) to post their calls, including triggers, stops & targets,  )





mine are posted through out this fine forum (had a few removed also which were in real time, NOT just BHP, but thats my fault for not putting them in appropriate threads ) )...... right or wrong ........ i care not if they are tracked .not looking for a competition just wanted to see IF EW was actually used as a LIVE trading tool by ACTUAL traders instead of the usual bunch that like to ta;lk about it but not actually use it in a real time basis...... seems to be a lot of that here , ..hindsight EW calls

glad Nick taken the time to share some with us , nice to see it posted here as example in real time (entrys/exits).right OR wrong

anyways..... personally dont think any of this will tell any tales until at least a decent number of trades are posted to give a rough average to work on to get the true tale of the tape

happy to post my entrys/exits/analysis here also if thats what rings your bell BUT its not based on EW so im invading yet another thread with off topic stuff

i must add that ALL entrys and exits are posted in the live chat facility here AS they happen daily ..... even intraday stuff . right or wrong


----------



## Chris45 (30 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> happy to post my entrys/exits/analysis here also if thats what rings your bell BUT its not based on EW so im invading yet another thread with off topic stuff



Nun, I'm afraid I don't have a bell worth ringing but I am interested in learning about other techniques, especially EOD techniques, and maybe others are as well. I've only seen one of your trades (which unfortunately was deleted) and was impressed! I think you said before that you're not interested in being a teacher and that's unfortunate because I think that you've got knowledge and skills worth teaching as well as a humorous style. With 3,057 posts to your credit I'm afraid I don't have a clue where to look to find the trades you've posted so, since you are one of the few prepared to go public, perhaps you could start a new thread and share your analysis with us. I'm sure I would not be the only one interested ... (and I'm *NOT* taking the p!ss!)


----------



## Bobby (30 September 2009)

doctorj said:


> This thread isn't about whether TA or FA or whatever works, it's about Elliott Wave.  Even if alternatives fail, it doesn't make EW a good strategy by default.




Well  I liked the  above  doctorj   

EW & Gann are both favorites for spoon feeder's , all the ground work has been done


----------



## skc (30 September 2009)

Hey gents, is this a valid set up from EW perspective?

Possible entry at the parabolic SAR, with stop loss at the pivot low if and when it does form. No trade if low was set too much below $2.6.

Initial target would be ~$4 for wave equality... but if it was a 5-wave advance the target can potentially be ~$4.5.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (1 October 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> It doesn't meet EW requirements on a number of fronts:
> 
> *1. wave-c is not equal to wave-a*
> 2. The retracement didn't tag the typical retracement zone
> ...




Nick you seem to be a proficient EW trader and from what you wrote above seems fair. 

But, I have trouble limiting myself to points 1. and 3. above. I just cannot limit the market action to a law, rule, stipulation or call it whatever, when the market is running its natural course and may just be ready for a rise. You mentioned a falling wedge, which encompasses a two leg down. Considering the risk advantage of this pattern at or near the point it has in this case given good reward for those who got onto the break. Though, I shouldn't flirt with hindsight verbosity. 

The question is, where is the advantage of trading a perfect wave which follows textbook laws of EW when the risk advantage of doing such may not be as effective or efficient as trading a wedge or something else - considering market structure and other personal particular checks and balances for instance? 

Thanks for the input.
Snake


----------



## Bobby (1 October 2009)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> The question is, where is the advantage of trading a perfect wave which follows textbook laws of EW when the risk advantage of doing such may not be as effective or efficient as trading a wedge or something else - considering market structure and other personal particular checks and balances for instance?
> 
> Snake




Hi Snake, I've spent considerable time on EW in the past & can say its a flawed strategy .
Gee if it worked it would soon bugger its self up anyway as the market self adjusts for any play  .

As for Nick I recommend his last book , it's an informative read & well worth buying ( just skip the EW stuff , my opinion )  .


----------



## chrislp (1 October 2009)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> The question is, where is the advantage of trading a perfect wave which follows textbook laws of EW when the risk advantage of doing such may not be as effective or efficient as trading a wedge or something else - considering market structure and other personal particular checks and balances for instance?




Not answering for Nick but considering your own response of "market structure" perhaps that answers it? It's discretionary analysis after all not a system.


----------



## chrislp (1 October 2009)

Bobby said:


> Hi Snake, I've spent considerable time on EW in the past & can say its a flawed strategy .




Maybe discretionary analysis doesn't suit you?


----------



## Bobby (1 October 2009)

chrislp said:


> You must be incompetent at using it then? Perhaps try something else?




Stupid comment ,  Try giving us some examples of your use of EW 
In real time   :bunny: ?


----------



## chrislp (1 October 2009)

Bobby said:


> Stupid comment




If that was a stupid comment what does that say of your original one?  

"Try giving us some examples of your use of EW"

If I had the time I would like to. I can't give this thread priority of time unfortunately.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (2 October 2009)

Bobby said:


> Hi Snake, I've spent considerable time on EW in the past & can say its a flawed strategy .
> Gee if it worked it would soon bugger its self up anyway as the market self adjusts for any play  .
> 
> As for Nick I recommend his last book , it's an informative read & well worth buying ( just skip the EW stuff , my opinion )  .




Bobby,

That complex wave might just be forming.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (2 October 2009)

chrislp said:


> Not answering for Nick but considering your own response of "market structure" perhaps that answers it? It's discretionary analysis after all not a system.



Perhaps context is a better word. Thanks for the education.


----------



## Rogue Trading (2 October 2009)

Hi,
Someone has given me a copy of Graham Dyer's Newsletter. Graham seems to be using Elliott Wave. Does anyone get the newsletter and is it any good? The one copy I have is very interesting. I know nothing about Elliott Wave. Is there a Elliott Wave for Dummies book or similar?
Thanks for your help.
Rogue Trading


----------



## Timmy (2 October 2009)

Rogue Trading said:


> Hi,
> Someone has given me a copy of Graham Dyer's Newsletter. Graham seems to be using Elliott Wave. Does anyone get the newsletter and is it any good? The one copy I have is very interesting. I know nothing about Elliott Wave. Is there a Elliott Wave for Dummies book or similar?
> Thanks for your help.
> Rogue Trading




I think if you look through this thread a few of the EW guys have posted links to free books and articles on EW.

Here you go:
Post 185 (thanks Chris45)
Post 187 (thanks Boggo)


----------



## Timmy (2 October 2009)

kennas said:


> Since the EW'ers have been kind enough to put their live trading calls up, using EW, I'm taken the time to collate them to see how they go.




Kennas, I think this is a good idea for those interested in EW and genuinely using it for improved trading and as a learning tool ... but for those with business interests tied up with EW it may well be very threatening?  I hope doing this doesn't drive them away as even their input can be helpful sometimes?


----------



## Bobby (2 October 2009)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Bobby,
> 
> That complex wave might just be forming.




Yep ! It just formed ,  its called the *Dumper*


----------



## Chris45 (2 October 2009)

Rogue Trading said:


> Hi,
> Someone has given me a copy of Graham Dyer's Newsletter. Graham seems to be using Elliott Wave. Does anyone get the newsletter and is it any good? The one copy I have is very interesting. I know nothing about Elliott Wave. Is there a Elliott Wave for Dummies book or similar?
> Thanks for your help.
> Rogue Trading



Danger of going "off topic" here but I used to get his newsletter and found it interesting, although he's a Prechter follower and tends to be a bit of a "permabear".


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (3 October 2009)

I'm talking with myself here and it seems the complex wave is eventuating. Where and at what price will it turn?


----------



## Kryzz (5 October 2009)

IPL has got a bit of an a-b-c here, currently sitting in the 50-61.8% retracement zone, wave A and wave C have more or less achieved wave equality, roughly .50 cents, volume doesn't look too promising with the most recent decline and wave C took a lot longer to complete than wave A too (another negative i believe), parabolic sar is 2.97 or more aggressive entry at 2.88


----------



## Kryzz (5 October 2009)

Edit: I totally missed SKC's post a few pages ago when he already posted up IPL, please disregard my last post, my bad.


----------



## skc (5 October 2009)

Kryzz said:


> Edit: I totally missed SKC's post a few pages ago when he already posted up IPL, please disregard my last post, my bad.




No worries mate. Good that you've given it a bump. 

If you want Kennas to log the trade feel free to make a firm call. 

Personally would trade the SAR as it is above the wave A pivot low, and the fact that the overall market is looking for a pause/fall/consolidation. A couple of green days could very well trigger the more aggressive stance...and only to see the market reverse again.


----------



## johnnyg (7 October 2009)

Load me up Kennas.

When the 2nd Parcel is brought the stop for the 1st parcel will be brought to break even, and the stop for the 2nd parcel will be as marked on the chart.


----------



## wayneL (7 October 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Load me up Kennas.
> 
> When the 2nd Parcel is brought the stop for the 1st parcel will be brought to break even, and the stop for the 2nd parcel will be as marked on the chart.




johnny,

You haven't explained the EW basis for the trade.


----------



## johnnyg (7 October 2009)

Whoops, The blue dotted line I would classify as an impulsive move and label it Wave 1 or A. From there there is a 3 wave correction taking the shape of an expanding flat pattern (where wave b runs past the high of wave 1 or A by a small margin, and wave c runs below the low of wave a (first red line) by a small margin. The retracement tagged the 50% - 61.8% retracement zone.

I'm dividing my 1R position into 1/2's because of where I think the market is currently at (alot of stocks show very similar price action today). I will be aggressive with the first 1/2 parcel, buying on a break of today's high with a stop under yesterdays low, and then using a SaR trigger for the 2nd 1/2 parcel which currently sits @ 2.60. When the 2nd parcel is triggered I will move my stop to break even for my first parcel, and my stop for my 2nd parcel will be @ 5.20


----------



## skc (7 October 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Whoops, The blue dotted line I would classify as an impulsive move and label it Wave 1 or A. From there there is a 3 wave correction taking the shape of an expanding flat pattern (where wave b runs past the high of wave 1 or A by a small margin, and wave c runs below the low of wave a (first red line) by a small margin. The retracement tagged the 50% - 61.8% retracement zone.
> 
> I'm dividing my 1R position into 1/2's because of where I think the market is currently at (alot of stocks show very similar price action today). I will be aggressive with the first 1/2 parcel, buying on a break of today's high with a stop under yesterdays low, and then using a SaR trigger for the 2nd 1/2 parcel which currently sits @ 2.60. When the 2nd parcel is triggered I will move my stop to break even for my first parcel, and my stop for my 2nd parcel will be @ 5.20




Johnnyg, good analysis and plan. But I wonder how is this elliot wave analysis and not simple reversal swing trading? Perhaps you can zoom out a little bit and label the wave counts? cheers


----------



## johnnyg (8 October 2009)

I dunno skc, maybe it is just swing trading however for myself I use E/W to help identify possibly where abouts we are in the trend. I don't like trying to force a count on and if it doesn't stand out clearly and no other technical patterns do I just move onto the next chart.

As a minimum I'd be looking @ 6.80, if we subdivide into a 5 wave pattern prices could go a fair bit higher.

One thing I have found in my own trading is that the stop needs to be reasonably loose for trading E/W patterns, and this is something I'll go back over once a get a good sample of trades.


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## lenny (12 October 2009)

Here 's one for the e/w'ers and the more tradional t/a traders as well

AUN is consolidating in a w4 and also an ascending triangle and would be nice buy on a break to the upside.









ascending tri target=$1.44
w4 target=$$1.50

Only new to elliot wave so happy to corrected and or happy to have further input from more experienced e/wers


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## kotim (18 October 2009)

Lenny one of the things to lookat is have a look att he time the correction takes compared with the time it takes to move up from the correction low.

Generally speaking it should take less time on the way up to cross the high as distinct from how long it takes to go from high to low.  It is a time over balance.,simply put waves 1,3,5 should be impulsive so they should be stronger, hence they should take less time to go up than down.

What I will say is that within the confines of any rules, always be aware that every stock has its own behaviour and is proven by those who trade it.  That is why no single idea works on all stocks etc.

For eg if it takes 15 bars to correct and then 25 bars to break out, then be prepared for a false breakout and a retreat back inside the range at the very least., have a look becasue that is what I am learning from someone who has made millions and zillions from trading and they look at wave sgtructure, not necessarily strait out of the elliot book but simply the structure itself of up and down moves.


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## johnnyg (22 October 2009)

Stop to Break even for me on AQP. Stock is chopping back and forwards without providing much direction.


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## >Apocalypto< (22 October 2009)

read a report that has the USD index in a ending diagonal that could be a bullish set up.

with out the genius of Wavepicker to ask, anyone else seen, watching this if it's the case?


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## Porper (23 October 2009)

>Apocalypto< said:


> read a report that has the USD index in a ending diagonal that could be a bullish set up.
> 
> with out the genius of Wavepicker to ask, anyone else seen, watching this if it's the case?




Yes it is a reversal set up. Quite a nice example of an ending diagonal pattern.

Some bullish divergence would have been nice.

Although Wavepicker obviously had some problems, he did know his stuff.

WPL also has broken down from the same pattern.


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