# Iron Ore Junior Comparison



## Sean K

I'm starting to put together an IO junior comparison for ease of analysis and to see who may be over or undervalued. 

Would appreciate some help from any interested punters.

If you add in the following, I will update the spreadsheet and repost regularly.

Company	
Shares on Issue	
SP	
MC (m)	
Cash (m)	
DSO (m/t)	
Mag (m/t)	
Prod tgt	
Comments


Cheers.


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## vincent191

Great idea. What does MC (m) stand for? Also would you consider add Debt level.


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## Sean K

vincent191 said:


> Great idea. What does MC (m) stand for? Also would you consider add Debt level.



Market Cap, but the spead sheet automatically calculates that.

Yes, debt is important, will add it.


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## prawn_86

Perhaps also an EV (enterprise value) column in there K. MC - cash + debt is the formula i think...


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## Sean K

prawn_86 said:


> Perhaps also an EV (enterprise value) column in there K. MC - cash + debt is the formula i think...



Thanks Prawn, will add it in.

It may be a bit more complicated though.

What I found was:

Enterprise value = 
 common equity at equity value
 + debt at market value
 + minority interest at market value, if any
 - associate company at market value, if any
 + preferred equity at market value
 - cash and cash-equivalents.



Can I just use your MC - cash + debt for ease of comparison?


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## prawn_86

kennas said:


> Can I just use your MC - cash + debt for ease of comparison?





Essentially that is what mine is stating. Most small co's wont have minority interest, associated co's or preferred equity.


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## jbocker

kennas said:


> Would appreciate some help from any interested punters.




Like to help out Kennas, but I am a newbie. What identifies a junior, and is it for Aussie mines or just ASX listed and do they have to be IO producers? 
Two I can think of are GRR Grange Resources, SDL Sundance but not sure they qualify for your list. 

Tegards
JB


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## Sean K

jbocker said:


> Like to help out Kennas, but I am a newbie. What identifies a junior, and is it for Aussie mines or just ASX listed and do they have to be IO producers?
> Two I can think of are GRR Grange Resources, SDL Sundance but not sure they qualify for your list.
> 
> Tegards
> JB



I'd say anyone except BHP, RIO, FMG, AQA, TTY maybe. Probably anyone who is still exploring, or only just started producing. GRR and SDL might fit the bill, but they're fairly well developed. Maybe a MC under 500m ish is a guide. Thoughts?


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## stock nub

GWR - Golden West Resources

Shares - 143 million options 28 million
Sp - 50 cents
Market Cap - 
Cash - $27 mill
Dso - 126 million tonnes (target 300 - 400 million additional)
Mag - 0
Debt: 0
Ev: around  $40 mill

Comment: relying on oakajee to get off the ground and even then deposit still quite far away from proposed path. Does have a substantial resource eg DSO is close in size to MIS more than MMX and these cos are worth A LOT more but do have nice sugar daddies supporting them.



Atlas Iron

Shares on Issue - 300 million + around 84 million if placement fully subscribed.  also around 40 mill options 
SP $1.97
MC (m)  before $600 mill       after   756 million
Cash (m)  64 mill before +     after   116.7 mill   total around say $160 mill  
DSO (m/t) around 90 million targeting more
Mag (m/t) 2 billion tonnes
Prod tgt 2010 - ^6mtpa  2012 - 12mtpa

Comments: Seem to have proactive management which does help. Hopefully able to use FMGs railline for some production which will make production cheaper



BC Iron Ore

Shares - 60.3M Options 6.1M
Sp - $1.41
MC - around 80 mill
Cash - $3.9 million
DSO - 51 million tonnes
Mag - 0
Prod start up 1.5 mtpa  april 2010 ramp up 3-5 mtpa using FMG port/rail

comment: Looks good, will need cash soon though.


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## spooly74

Company:Emergent Resources EMG
Shares on Issue:	42mill ord 21mill options
SP:	60c 
MC (m)	~ 20 million  (varies daily)
Cash (m) $1.1m this quarter, $1.7m previous	
DSO (m/t) in exploration	
Mag (m/t) in exploration
Prod tgt.  This is what I'm waiting for. Have been some estimates on anns from memory but nothing concrete.	
Comments: Main project is the Beyondie Magnetite Project.
 (EMG earning 80%). Got on this a few months ago due to the low MC and the length of strike.Thinking of taking some profit now though. One to keep on the watchlist.


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## Sean K

Updated list with EVs:

AGO
BRM
GIR
IOH
GWR
BCI
EMG


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## grace

Thanks so much for doing this, and I would like to highlight one of my favourites.

FRS  Ferraus Iron

Shares
FPO  151.6 mill
Class B  7.5
Unlisted oppies 8.4
Total fully diluted  167.5 million shares

Current price 53c
MC = $88.77 mill

Cash $15.8 mill, no debt

DSO  166.6 mill tonne grade of 58.6% Fe.  All DSO no mag.

Target some 500 million tonne of DSO

Consent to mine granted by WA Govt recently.

Options

A.  fast-track 1.5 - 2 MTpy H2/2010

B.  8 - 10 MTpy 2012/13 ramping up to >20MTpy 2014/16

Situated East Pilbara 30kms from rail line at Jimblebar.  Looking at conveyor system to rail line end.

That's about it.  Some major chinese interest there on the share registry already.


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## prawn_86

Hey Kennas and others,

I have added a 'Price per m/t' section, menaing that now you can compare how much you are paying per m/t of IO for each company.

3 seperate cols, based on DSO, Mag, or total, dependng on what your looking at comparing.

EDIT - Have not added in Graces pick as she posted as i was typing


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## Sean K

prawn_86 said:


> Hey Kennas and others,
> 
> I have added a 'Price per m/t' section, menaing that now you can compare how much you are paying per m/t of IO for each company.
> 
> 3 seperate cols, based on DSO, Mag, or total, dependng on what your looking at comparing.
> 
> EDIT - Have not added in Graces pick as she posted as i was typing



Thanks Prawn, I've added that to the sheet, but follows the DSO and Mag JORCs.


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## doctorj

Cool table.  How are you dealing with options?


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## robandcoll

BMY - Brumby Resources

Shares - 63mill
Options - 18.3mill @ .15c Jan 2010
Share Price .17c
MC     10.7Mill
Cash    1.45mill
DSO    -
Mag    -
Comments: Top20 shareholders hold 47% with Independence Group holding 11%
                4 iron ore projects within excellent Pilbara coastal infastructure
                Announced in April that prelimanary drilling will commence in June at their Pardoo East Iron Ore Project


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## Sean K

doctorj said:


> Cool table.  How are you dealing with options?



I was going to do fully diluted, but it didn't seem to make much difference to the overall value, and who's to say they get excised? Actually, I think I was just feeling lazy... Maybe we should include them?


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## doctorj

kennas said:


> I was going to do fully diluted, but it didn't seem to make much difference to the overall value, and who's to say they get excised? Actually, I think I was just feeling lazy... Maybe we should include them?



It probably makes sense to include them when they're ITM.  It won't make much of a difference very often, but every now and then you come across a company that has a large number of options that create a significant overhang and are therefore worth knowing about.


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## Sean K

Table updated with Options added in.
Market Caps are fully diluted.

If there are any errors please let me know. 
I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the data. DYOR, blah blah blah...


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## Sean K

Updated with current share prices and added in BMY and POL, and some colour. 

I've also highlighted what looks to be the biggest anomolies.

FRS DSO valued at 41c a ton.
BRM Magnetite valued at 4c a ton. 

Stocks covered:

AGO
BRM
GIR
IOH
GWR
BCI
EMG
FRS
POL
BMY


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## prawn_86

Great stuff Kennas. WHy hadnt anyone thought of doing this sooner?  Im glad you decided to share


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## Sean K

prawn_86 said:


> Great stuff Kennas. WHy hadnt anyone thought of doing this sooner?  Im glad you decided to share



Yeah, should have. I'm still working with the gold one and should update for everyone. Should have done a CSG one too...

Updated and included SDL.

Covered:

AGO
BRM
GIR
IOH
GWR
BCI
EMG
FRS
POL
BMY
SDL


Comments/corrections/additional info welcome.


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## liquidmaker

Kennas,

Thanks mate for all the advice i read from yourself, it really helps me develop as a trader. Maybe i can one day help some others when i become experienced.

Really like this thread. I myself own FMG on margin.

Just wondering what Mag (m.t) stood for. I had another thought on the thread whether comparing the juniors in each sector to a heavyweight would be a good idea, for comparsion?


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## tehnoob

liquidmaker said:


> Just wondering what Mag (m.t) stood for.




Magnetite (megatons / million tons)

Magnetite is more expensive to produce as it requires benefication to bring the grade up to standards. DSO is Direct Shipping Ore and is from another form of iron ore called hematite.

Hope this helps mate.


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## Sean K

liquidmaker said:


> Kennas,
> 
> Thanks mate
> 
> I had another thought on the thread whether comparing the juniors in each sector to a heavyweight would be a good idea, for comparsion?



 My pleasure.

Added in FMG as a pure IO major play for comparison.

Also added DMM and CFE.
BRM still has the cheapest Mag.
DMM takes over from FRS as the cheapest Hematite, although there's some questions regarding DMM impurities - may require beneficiation.

I've also put in a hyperlink to each companies website. Just click on their share code.

Remember when comparing these that there are many factors at play that effect value. The ore depth, imprutites, access to infrastructure, country risk, management, for example, are very important. So, while the numbers here are a good initial guide, the other factors must be considered. 

List:

FMG
AGO
BRM
GIR
IOH
GWR
BCI
EMG
FRS
POL
BMY
SDL
DMM
CFE


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## JnrTrader

this is outstanding guys, some really fantastic information, congrats kennans for your work.really appreciated.So, on the latest information, what are everyones thoughts, which iron ore junior has the greatest potential in terms of share price.obviously BRM is the cheapest and if they can get a JV partner soon then they will be looking very good, sdl also has high potential.Just wondering why MMX and MGX had been left out of this group, both a iron ore producers/explorers, although its for juniors i would consider them in the same class as ago and brm, they are just a tad further developed.keep up the great work


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## Sean K

JnrTrader said:


> Just wondering why MMX and MGX had been left out of this group, both a iron ore producers/explorers,



I'll add them in JrT, cheers.


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## Sean K

kennas said:


> I'll add them in JrT, cheers.



I'm struggling with MGX financials though. Their last quarterlies are a dogs breakfast for getting an understanding of their position. Perhaps deliberately. Can you tell me how much cash and debt they have?


I have updated the spreadsheet with current share prices and have also added a filter. It is currently filtered in alphabetical order. To see who has the lowest market cap, simply click on the arrow next to 'MC' and choose the 'smallest to largest'. The table will adjust. To see who has the lowest price per ton of DSO, go to the 'Price per m/t' column and click the 'DSO' arrow, then cloose 'smallest to largest'.

While this analysis may be handy right now, it may be even more handy when we get back to a bottom ish position in the market and IO is in major demand again. It may take some time, but hey, we've got time... 

Right now the market troubles me.


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## vincent191

Kennas

Thanks for the spreadsheet. Well done. I was wondering if you can GBG onto it. Will the spreadsheet work if I just copy and paste and add others on to it?
You got MML on the spreadsheet it should be MMX for Murchisons.


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## Sean K

vincent191 said:


> Kennas
> 
> Thanks for the spreadsheet. Well done. I was wondering if you can GBG onto it. Will the spreadsheet work if I just copy and paste and add others on to it?
> You got MML on the spreadsheet it should be MMX for Murchisons.



Yes, you can do that. You just need basic Excel and you can work it out.

But I'll add GBG in myself anyway, cheers.

Funny about the MMX code. I got confused because their website is MML.

www.mml.net.au


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## vincent191

My method of selecting which junior to invest in is to pick the ones with the highest amount of DSO resource. Mining DSO is a no brainer, all you have to do is dig it up, crush it and ship.

With magnetite it is a different story. It will need huge amounts of investment to refine the bugger before you can ship it.

The other factor to consider is availability of infrastructure, preferably it should be as close as possible to rail & port facilities. No use having a large deposit of DSO but you have to pay huge prices to transport it.

So, bearing transport costs in mind if you have a large magnetite deposit but close to rail & port facilities the savings on transport can often off set the extra cost of processing magnetite.

The next important factor is to have good shareholders who can offer financial backing. This is where the Chinese comes in. Not only are they prepared to invest but they have marketing expertise. Provided the marketing/selling is done at arm's length this is a big plus.

Anyone else got anything other thing to add? Most welcome, we need all the help we can get.


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## happytown

some more for the list

had included all options in determining mc

several of these co's have placements and cash arriving over the next few weeks (will keep thread updated)

in determining ev, have used the as suggested mc-cash+debt

some sa fe'ees

co CXM
shares 269,330,665
options 3,475,000 ($695,000 if exercised, all itm)
total 272,805,665
sp .27
mc $73,657,752.95
cash $9,159,000
jorc dso 13.3Mt @ 57.7% fe, 4.8% sio2, 2.8% al2o3, 5.0% loi, 0.51% p indicated, 0.8Mt @ 56.6% fe, 5.2% sio2, 2.5% al2o3, 4.0% loi, 0.57% p inferred
jorc magnetite nil
prod target 1.6Mt p/a from mid 2010
target dso unknown
target magnetite currently 568.4Mt - 1,202.4Mt (cxm's 40% share)
ev $64,498,752.95
comments cxm expected to finalise jv with wisco in july, wilgerup da for export expected july 

co IFE
shares 40,000,003
options 10,700,000 ($21.57M approx if exercised, nil itm)
total 50,700,003
sp .28
mc $14,196,000.84
cash $3,922,000
jorc dso nil
jorc magnetite 35Mt @ 29.9% Fe, 30.4% SiO2, 9.54% Al2O3, 0.04% P indicated; 24.9Mt @ 31.7% Fe, 30.2% SiO2, 8.2% Al2O3, 0.05% P inferred; 215.6Mt @ 27.7% Fe, 44.0% SiO2, 2.69% Al2O3, 0.19% P, 4.82% loi (ife 40% interest 110Mt all up)
prod target 2-4Mt p/a (wilcherry hill, TFR 20% interest) commencing 2011
target dso unknown
target magnetite 540 - 1040 Mt @ 25-30% Fe
ev $10,274,000.84
comments wisco 50/50 jv still in discussion (wisco still undertaking dd), has identified dso at hercules, 20M shares to be released from escrow in july (likely TRF's holding, ife spin-off from trf)

co LML
shares 75,321,221
options 40,736,854 ($11.75M approx if exercised, nil itm)
total 116,058,075
sp .089
mc $10,329,168.67
cash $2,213,000
jorc dso 7-10Kt @ 66.2% Fe, 2.02% SiO2, 1.31% Al2O3, 0.04% P, 1.85% loi (indonesia, 45% interest 3,150-4,500t)
jorc magnetite 55Mt @ 20.6% dtr inferred (60% interest 33Mt @ 20.6% dtr) 
prod target 250Kt p/a (indonesia, 45% interest 112,500t p/a)
target dso 0.9 - 2.6Mt @ 60-68% Fe (indonesia, 45% interest 405Kt-1.17Mt) 
target magnetite 125 - 200Mt @ 15-25% Fe (60% interest 75 - 120Mt @ 15-25% Fe)
ev $8,116,168.67
comments u308 Ni-Co Au, rights issue undersubscribed (14,674,290 @ .08 tradeable from 1st july, 10,449,783 shortfall, expected to be placed soon)

co IXR
shares 174,472,803
options 11,360,000 ($6,035,200 if exercised, nil itm)
total 185,832,803
sp .235
mc $43,670,708.70
cash $3,658,000
jorc dso nil
jorc magnetite 10.5Mt @ 50% Fe indicated
prod target 1.255Mt p/a (dso magnetite) commencing 2009, long term 3-5Mt p/a
target dso unknown
target magnetite unknown
ev $40,012,708.70
comments phase 1 processing of magnetite in china - dig and ship commencing Q3, shareholdings in uranex (spin-off from IXR) 33M shares continental nickel (canadian) 14.3M shares, Cu Au, royalty sale $6M due soon

co WPG
shares 93,553,187
options 12,737,500 ($6,189,375 if exercised, approx 4.5M itm) 
total 106,290,687
sp .31
mc $32,950,112.97
cash $5,359,999
jorc dso 25.5Mt @ 62.9% Fe, 7.7% SiO2, 0.8% Al2O3, 0.03% P, 0.7% loi measured; 9.3Mt @ 61.6% Fe, 9.5% SiO2, 0.7% Al2O3, 0.05% P, 0.8% loi indicated; 2.6Mt @ 63% Fe, 7.8% SiO2, 0.5% Al2O3, 0.04% P, 0.5% loi inferred
jorc magnetite 100Mt @ 37% Fe, 37% SiO2, 0.8% Al2O3, 0.06% P, 0.6% loi measured; 60Mt @ 36% Fe, 38% SiO2, 1.0% Al2O3, 0.06% P, 0.8% loi indicated; 409Mt @ 35% Fe inferred (WPG interest only 50%, 284.5Mt)
prod target 2Mt p/a from 2010 (dso) then up to 4.5Mt p/a (dso); 6Mt p/a from 2012 (magnetite)
target dso unknown
target magnetite more than 1,000Mt
ev $27,590,113.97
comments 50/50 jv with wisco for magnetite, 1 for 12 rights issue @ .25 currently underway 

some other  gropers

co WRK
shares 94,938,605
options 37,835,784 ($10.6M if exercised, 28M approx itm)
total 132,774,389
sp .30
mc $39,832,316.70
cash $4,770,000
jorc dso 12.6Mt @ 57.5% Fe, 7% SiO2, 2.0% Al2O3, 0.06% P 7.9% loi inferred; 13.8Mt @ 53.9% Fe, 0.04% P inferred 
jorc magnetite nil
prod target unknown
target dso 63 - 121Mt @ 56-60% Fe
target magnetite unknown
ev $35,062,316.70
comments 4M shares in PRW, AGO largest shareholder approx 19%, several tenements close (8kms) to bhp mines/railways, over 3,000 sq kms tenements, hannans fe consolidation expected to be approved july, further drilling commencing july

co TLM
shares 86,782,503
options 41,274,257 ($18.15M approx if exercised, approx 31M itm)
total 128,056,760
sp .30
mc $38,417,028
cash $6.9M approx
jorc dso 78.3Mt @ 56.0% Fe, 6.6% SiO2, 3.6% Al2O3, 0.08% P, 9.2% loi (incls 10.0Mt @ 61.3% Fe, 3.1% SiO2, 1.7% Al2O3, 0.08% P, 7.3% loi) inferred
jorc magnetite nil
prod target 2-5Mt p/a (to nearby mines, within 20kms of west angelas, area c, hope downs)
target dso unknown
target magnetite unknown
ev $31.5M approx
comments former jubilee mines management, also Ni Mn Au Cu, approx 6.2M share issue shareholder approval in july

note if anyone knows of any errors in the above, feel free to correct them

cheers


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## Sean K

Whoohoo, HT!!!

Give me a day to add this in.

Thank you!


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## vincent191

Now that we have this database, how do we select the candidates? Tell us your method and your criterias.


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## happytown

kennas,

don't know if this warrants listing as the co currently has no jorc nor target tonnage, however has potential in its tenements and is planning to begin drilling this qtr


co DMA
shares 55,631,312
options 27,067,029 ($8,600,960.15 if exercised, nil itm)
total 82,698,341
sp .125
mc $10,337,292.62
cash $2,299,000
jorc dso nil
jorc magnetite nil
prod target nil
target dso nil
target magnetite nil
ev $8,038,292.62
comments has rejected chinese rebecca's share placement/farm-in as not in s/holders best interests (approx $5M for approx 33% of co), targets defined for drilling (subject to approval) to begin this qtr, rock chip samples encouraging, currently has 15% interest in qld tiaro maryborough basin coal project 

cheers


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## Sean K

Cheers HT, will add.

Vincent, The main factors are probably the IO (and quality) to MC comparison, and infrastructure access.

I haven't updated the spreadsheet as I've been busy in the Andes the past week riding horses. 

Hopefully tomorrow with updated share prices also.


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## Mozart56

kennas said:


> Cheers HT, will add.
> 
> Vincent, The main factors are probably the IO (and quality) to MC comparison, and infrastructure access.
> 
> I haven't updated the spreadsheet as I've been busy in the Andes the past week riding horses.
> 
> Hopefully tomorrow with updated share prices also.




Hi Kennas

Worth mentioning for clarity that BRM does not have any magnetite, it is all haematite.  For comparison purposes it might be worth reducing the BRM resource to its DSO equivalent which is approx 1 billion tonnes.


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## happytown

co AON
shares 103,155,292
options 78,977,646 ($20,006,911.50 if exercised, approx 75.7M just itm)
total 182,132,938
sp .255
mc $46,443,899.19
cash $2,809,000
jorc dso nil
jorc magnetite nil
prod target unknown
target dso unknown
target magnetite 800Mt @ 35-39% Fe (100%-owned mt oscar, 30kms south of cape lambert - port etc); 50Mt (100%-owned commonwealth hill, WPG farm-in up to 75%, 12.5Mt for AON)
ev $43,634,899.19
comments recent chinese road show as aon seeks chinese partner (equity and/or farm-in - ann dated 09/06/09) (commitments from 11 co's to take negs on to mou status - ann dated 01/07/09), drilling starts this month (pending approval), approx 47M options expire end of this month @ .25 

cheers


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## Sean K

Mozart56 said:


> Hi Kennas
> 
> Worth mentioning for clarity that BRM does not have any magnetite, it is all haematite.  For comparison purposes it might be worth reducing the BRM resource to its DSO equivalent which is approx 1 billion tonnes.




Total inferred and indicated is 1.4b
Total beneficiation feed 1325m (included Detrital and low grade CID) @ 43% ish
Total DSO 67.8m @ 57% ish


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## Sean K

Table updated as best I can. 

It's getting a bit long and unweildy now and time consuming to update prices, so I'll leave it to you guys to save and manipulate as you see fit from now on.

If you're an excel noob, and don't know how to use it, just post questions here.


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## doctorj

kennas said:


> time consuming to update prices,



Could you not quickly add something to automatically retrieve prices from yahoo?


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## Sean K

doctorj said:


> Could you not quickly add something to automatically retrieve prices from yahoo?



No idea. Never Yahoo. 

Is there a way of automatically updating?


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## WRONG'UN

It definitely can be done - Goldnerds do it on their gold spreadsheet.


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## vincent191

So after reviewing the data who are the top ranking three candidates?


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## prawn_86

vincent191 said:


> So after reviewing the data who are the top ranking three candidates?




It depends on your criteria. Everyone is going to want different things from a stock. Hence there are no 'best' or 'worst' merely different.


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## Sean K

Agree with Prawn.

Off pure numbers I personally take notice of the lowest JORC DSO to MC comparison first. 

DMM
GWR
FRS

Then you need to look at the quality of the IO such as impurities and depth, and then available infrastructure and country risk. Cash seems to be handy at the moment.

To decide on the best value/most potential, you might like to analyse the top 10, and then sort them out according to the other factors with some type of weighting system.

I'm looking for the most undervalued stock that should get re-rated.


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## WRONG'UN

This is a way of updating the data:

You need to close Excel, then download an Excel add-on from the Microsoft website - it uses the MSN Money website to get prices.
http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details...;displaylang=en

When the download has been done, open Excel and note the floating toolbar that appears - drag this into the Excel toolbar.

Clicking on "Insert Stock Quotes" will open a window from where you can type in the stock code and enter the Exchange - 

But in the specific case of the Iron Ore Juniors' spreadsheet, just go the the "SP" column and type =MSNStockQuote($A6,"Last price","AU") in cell D6 - then copy this formula down to the bottom of the table. (Cell $A6 contains the code of the company in question). Double click on "Update Quotes" in the new toolbar to update the quotes. (the "Update Quotes" tag will go grey for 5 minutes, after which you can update again.)

Hope this helps.


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## Sean K

WRONG'UN said:


> This is a way of updating the data:
> 
> You need to close Excel, then download an Excel add-on from the Microsoft website - it uses the MSN Money website to get prices.
> http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details...;displaylang=en
> 
> When the download has been done, open Excel and note the floating toolbar that appears - drag this into the Excel toolbar.
> 
> Clicking on "Insert Stock Quotes" will open a window from where you can type in the stock code and enter the Exchange -
> 
> But in the specific case of the Iron Ore Juniors' spreadsheet, just go the the "SP" column and type =MSNStockQuote($A6,"Last price","AU") in cell D6 - then copy this formula down to the bottom of the table. (Cell $A6 contains the code of the company in question). Double click on "Update Quotes" in the new toolbar to update the quotes. (the "Update Quotes" tag will go grey for 5 minutes, after which you can update again.)
> 
> Hope this helps.



Yes!!



You are now in charge of updating the list! 



I will try myself but, sheesh!!


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## esolano

WRONG'UN said:


> This is a way of updating the data:
> http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details...;displaylang=en




Might want to update the link WRONG'UN


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## WRONG'UN

Sorry, try this:
http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/...D8-9305-4535-B939-3BF0A740A9B1&displaylang=en


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## WRONG'UN

OK, here's the 25 June version of the spreadsheet, with column D amended to the web import formula, and with the downloaded stock quotes add-on in the toolbar - see attached screenprint. The screenprint was made with the cursor on cell D6, showing the formula to be copied down that column - the row number will go up by 1 with each successively lower row of course - ie formula in cell D7 will be =MSNStockQuote($A7,"last price","AU") etc...

Edit: The spreadsheet I have posted seems to be updating OK - the SP column needs to be increased to 3 decimal places to pick up the smallest tick size.


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## spooly74

spooly74 said:


> Company:Emergent Resources EMG
> Shares on Issue:	42mill ord 21mill options
> SP:	60c
> MC (m)	~ 20 million  (varies daily)
> Cash (m) $1.1m this quarter, $1.7m previous
> DSO (m/t) in exploration
> Mag (m/t) in exploration
> Prod tgt.  This is what I'm waiting for. Have been some estimates on anns from memory but nothing concrete.
> Comments: Main project is the Beyondie Magnetite Project.
> (EMG earning 80%). Got on this a few months ago due to the low MC and the length of strike.Thinking of taking some profit now though. One to keep on the watchlist.




EMG
Company has just signed an MOU with Chinese Investment Co Ltd (CMIC) for the development of Beyondie.

Key Points
*Non-binding MOU with China Metallurgical Investment Co Ltd (CMIC) for the
development of Beyondie Iron Project in WA’s mid-west iron ore region
*CMIC to commence three month due diligence period within the next month
*MOU provides for a 50:50 Development JV and provision of AUD$200m funding to achieve commencement of mining operations at Beyondie Project
*MOU also provides for a placement of shares and an options to CMIC to raise an estimated AUD$4.9 million as additional working capital for EMG

This is probably worth having its own thread now. I'll put some information together when I get a chance later.


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## Miner

WRONG'UN said:


> OK, here's the 25 June version of the spreadsheet, with column D amended to the web import formula, and with the downloaded stock quotes add-on in the toolbar - see attached screenprint. The screenprint was made with the cursor on cell D6, showing the formula to be copied down that column - the row number will go up by 1 with each successively lower row of course - ie formula in cell D7 will be =MSNStockQuote($A7,"last price","AU") etc...
> 
> Edit: The spreadsheet I have posted seems to be updating OK - the SP column needs to be increased to 3 decimal places to pick up the smallest tick size.




Great work and thanks

Did you leave AQA or just forgotten it


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## Sean K

Miner said:


> Great work and thanks
> 
> Did you leave AQA or just forgotten it



Left it out because of the Coal. Just going for pure IO plays.


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## Muschu

You guys are way ahead of me with your experience and analytical skills.  Just thought I'd ask if Aurox [AXO] fits the bill?
Regards
Rick


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## Sean K

I've added AXO in Rick.

Also EMG.

I've just updated the chart with surrent sp's to see how it's going. I haven't updated any of the resources, so if there's a major change let me know. 

I've also added in the average price per ton of ore, for DSO and Mag and added at the bottom. This is a very rough guide to see where each company fits.

Cheapest for DSO in order:

GWR 0.2675
FRS 0.437048193
TLM 0.48403576

Average price: $6.19 per ton

Cheapest Magnetite:

BRM 0.059884286
SDL 0.136344086
GBG 0.192777778

Average:  $0.92 per ton

On the raw numbers, GWR and BRM look very cheap. 

BRM at 5c a ton for it's Mag looks out of place!!

Updated analysis attached. It's currently in alphabetical order. To sort by price per ton DSO or Magnetite, simply click on the arrow and sort smallest to largest.


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## WRONG'UN

Thanks Kennas
This version of the spreadsheet updates the share prices, if you have installed the stock quotes tab on the Excel toolbar.


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## Sean K

WRONG'UN said:


> Thanks Kennas
> This version of the spreadsheet updates the share prices, if you have installed the stock quotes tab on the Excel toolbar.



Thank you Wrong'un. Great stuff.


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## grace

It is still difficult to compare on those numbers alone I think.  Infrastructure should be the main driver of share price.

Forgive me if my memory is bad, but GWR are nowhere near a rail line (is it in the mid-west past MMX etc, so more than 400 kms by road, to port).

FRS for example are 30kms to a rail line in the Pilbara.

BRM in the Pilbara too, have the line going through the tenament (although it's BHP's).  

In the end, there is that much iron ore around,  that large deposits will not be valued on a per tonne basis eg BRM.

If GIR were to drill up all of their tenaments, I think they would get more than 1 billion tonne of high grade DSO.....but it is all about location and timing!


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## Sean K

Yes, I agree Grace. 

But even if you're in a good spot you need some tonnage and quality. 

Just a judgement call on all the required factors to make something a potential mine. 

Maybe infrastructure is number one in our situation.


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## Sean K

There's talk that BHP may be going to pay $220m for UMC, sorry lost the reference.

Even if not, lets check their current EV to tonnage to get an idea of how much a junior IO is worth.

EV is $135 with 122Mt DSO so they're currently valued at $1.1 a ton DSO. 

With a $220m MC that would take them up to $1.71 a ton. 

Need to look at all the other pros and cons of the company to decide on what else they have going for them, including nearology, and then take a guess at what some others could be worth for a takeover. 

Spreadsheet arranged according to cheapest to most expensive DSO.


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## Love Zn

kennas said:


> There's talk that BHP may be going to pay $220m for UMC, sorry lost the reference.




Was mentioned in last weekend's Fin Review.


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## dontbelievethem

Hi,  good table it's a great place to start with these companies, but I have a couple of general questions.  

What grade of Fe is officially classed as DSO, is it >57% and is this a standard/official definition.  Can you take your high grade ore and blend it with lower grade to come to this number, generally speaking.

With regard to the Chinese taking stakes in these juniors (or not so juniors) do you think that they may get screwed on pricing.  I see that Fortescue is going better now the Chinese funding has been scrapped, I guess the market was worrying about the discount to spot they'd be forced to swallow for years to come?


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## Sean K

Not sure of the exact number for DSO, I thought more like over 54%. Might depend on impurities also. Less Si and Al the better.

BHP are valuing UMC at about $205m which puts an EV to tonnage price of $1.55 ish.

On the table that makes anything under $1.00 a ton of DSO look pretty cheap. Then check the location for infrastructure and depth and quality of the ore.

Top 5 are:
GWR $0.28
DMM $0.48
FRS $0.65
WPG $1.04
BCI $1.15

I'm personally liking the look of FRS from that list.

BRM isn't included because the detrital hematite needs benefication. If you call it DSO, it rates just 13c a ton. And a BHP rail line practically runs through the deposit.


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## MOSSuMS

Saw an ann from ACS - should they go on this sheet? Don't know the details (not been following them).


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## JimBob

A junior that hasnt been covered yet:
Mindax - MDX
Shares: 129million
Cash: $7.6 million
Share Price: $0.50
Market Cap: $64.5 million
Top 20 own 81.8%

Initial Exploration Target: 90-100MT DSO, 650-750MT Mag.  No drilling has taken place yet, but they are due to start next month.  They have been having permit problems due to native title considerations.


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## MR CUBE

Like the way the market has re-rated IOH. Certainly the up and comer.

GIR and FRS next best.


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## Nonferrous Pete

This was an excellent thread, did it just run its course, or has it moved to another location?  I'm based in China and might be able to add some market perspective if this topic is still alive.  One other comment is that getting the ore to a port and loaded economically is crucial, otherwise, it's just dirt in the ground.  Does anyone have a realistic assessment on which junior will be in a position to start shipping ore soonest?


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## Sean K

Nonferrous Pete said:


> This was an excellent thread, did it just run its course, or has it moved to another location?



Hi Pete, it hasn't moved, just a bit less to talk about recently for whatever reason. World is going to need IO for some time yet so as information is added over time and the spreadsheet is updated, good opportunities should still present themselves.


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## Sean K

Wow, some massive changes in junior explorer and IO explorer MCs the past few days. Obviously due to overall market implosion and the Rudd super tax thingy, but geesh, panic has set in. Should expect a bounce, but who knows. eeeek.

BRM, what a disaster sell off for short termers in late. 



Could be a good opportunity coming up in the long term IO sector IMO.


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## eddyeagle

kennas said:


> Could be a good opportunity coming up in the long term IO sector IMO.




Yeah I reckon there will be some absolute bargains to be had when the time is right... I'm keeping a close eye on BRM, AGO, FRS etc...


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## shag

it became a commsec margin loaner too recently, so that wouldnt help matters, tho only lvr 35pc.
might help its rise again....


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## Muschu

Just wondering what others may think in relation to a range of iron ore and other mining juniors

Has fear and doubt surrounding the reaction to hte super tax, which has  hit at roughly the same time as re-newed fears overseas, lead to a greater drop in SPs than warranted?

Opinions would be interesting.


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## Sean K

Muschu said:


> Just wondering what others may think in relation to a range of iron ore and other mining juniors
> 
> Has fear and doubt surrounding the reaction to hte super tax, which has  hit at roughly the same time as re-newed fears overseas, lead to a greater drop in SPs than warranted?
> 
> Opinions would be interesting.



Could be, but I do wonder if it will mean the difference between getting something off the ground or not. Can BRM now accress the billion plus in debt they need for Capex? Maybe it will mean projects don't going...

Or, this correction is going to provide another great opportunity to buy once things are truly oversold like they were in March last year. Probably not there yet. Europe looks untidy and fear reigns.


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## Muschu

Thanks Kennas.  Appreciate your experience.  There certainly doesn't seem to be any reason to be buying anything at the moment.
I just had a look at the monthly competition list and had to chuckle - even with my guess right near the bottom....


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## jonojpsg

Worth noting though - Weekend Australian had an article re RIO ramping up production which said IO prices were nearing pre-GFC highs of $197/t  With freight charges currently running at $13/t they said RIO were making $170/t atm!!  Mate, for any juniors in/near production this has to be a good time to get them - obviously keeping an eye on world issues to make sure you don't jump in too early

For mine, IFE having dropped back to $1.15 from $1.60 over the last week look a goer - heading for 2Mtpa by the end of this year which for a $45m MC looks pretty darn cheap if they're going to be getting $150/t and costs are $60/t means they'll be pocketing a nice $90m/annum (50% TRF/50% IFE) although this deal with the Chinese gives 30% of that away for a mere $35m input???  ****e I mean why would you do that, surely they could have got the money from an Aussie company for better rates than that??

Anyway enough ranting from me

PS Don't hold but might jump in over next few days?


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## Muschu

The only one I plan to continue to hold [as of today] is AGO... 

But I may change my mind, or not - or just go fishing!


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