# China's Economy



## MrBurns (12 September 2009)

Anyone else see a trend here ?

China is consuming resources in record volumes.
What are they doing ?

The USA seems to be faltering.

Could the balance of power be shifting ?, 

I for one hope not because , no offense intended, I just don't trust them.


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## explod (12 September 2009)

> China is consuming resources in record volumes.
> What are they doing ?




They are stockping with US dollars in order to hedge against US$ devaluation



> The USA seems to be faltering.




Many of us have been pointing out this obvious fact for more than two years




> Could the balance of power be shifting ?,




Yes, noticed a recent press release that USA, Aus and China will be doing some joint military exercises in the Pacific.

Your last comment I will ignore, I have a number of fine chinese friends, nephew dates one, a PHd medical student at Monash (I am caucasion by the way)  

We must encourage educational, military, business and govt intereaction or we will eventually be dammned

IMVHO


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## MrBurns (12 September 2009)

explod said:


> Your last comment I will ignore, I have a number of fine chinese friends, nephew dates one, a PHd medical student at Monash (I am caucasion by the way)
> We must encourage educational, military, business and govt intereaction or we will eventually be dammned
> IMVHO




I didn't mean as a people I meant as a Govt.
I like Asian people very much.

Oh and thanks for the clarification on those few points.


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## MrBurns (12 September 2009)

Another query which pops to mind is how important is China to Rio and BHP ? If China played hardball or stopped ordering for some reason what impact would that have on their share prices ?


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## explod (12 September 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Another query which pops to mind is how important is China to Rio and BHP ? If China played hardball or stopped ordering for some reason what impact would that have on their share prices ?




A point I missed was by stockpiling the reserves it will allow them to hold out against high prices and buy on the dips so to speak.   This must have negatives for the big miners all right.   Another reason why they would be increasing shareholder positions as well.   And not just to Aus, Sth Africa, Sth America, Russia for energy and others.

My Farther used to speak of China over 50 years ago that they would one day be a very big problem.   A line he used to quote also "if you marched then 10 abreast into the sea at walking pace the population still would not drop.  I think that may have changed but the sheer size of what we are dealing with makes us look like an ant under the elephants foot.


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## MrBurns (12 September 2009)

explod said:


> but the sheer size of what we are dealing with makes us look like an ant under the elephants foot.




Thats what concerns me.
Good insight once again, thanks

Just noticed my post count, I really have to get a life.


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## Wysiwyg (12 September 2009)

explod said:


> My Father used to speak of China over 50 years ago that they would one day be a very big problem.   A line he used to quote also "if you marched then 10 abreast into the sea at walking pace the population still would not drop.  I think that may have changed but the sheer size of what we are dealing with makes us look like an ant under the elephants foot.




Wasn`t a nice world last time a country tried to take control.


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## Happy (12 September 2009)

explod said:


> ...
> 
> Your last comment I will ignore, I have a number of fine chinese friends, nephew dates one, *a PHd medical student at Monash * (I am caucasion by the way)
> 
> ...





Might be *a PHd medical student at Monash *, question is what will do when regime tells what to do.

There are not that many Chinese dissidents in China.


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## Ageo (13 September 2009)

The day China and India become dangerous is when they become self sustaining. Until then they will always need outside resources to industrialize its nation.


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## Dowdy (13 September 2009)

Anyone actually been to China. I have. 

If it had a good water supply and spoke english (well most do already), then i wouldn't mind living there.


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## jono1887 (13 September 2009)

Ageo said:


> The day China and India become dangerous is when they become self sustaining. Until then they will always need outside resources to industrialize its nation.




Not possible... they dont have any coal, oil, natural gas, iron ore, uranium.....

Unless they develop ultra efficient solar tech.. that is probably the only free resource they could use.


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## Smurf1976 (13 September 2009)

jono1887 said:


> Not possible... they dont have any coal, oil, natural gas, iron ore, uranium.....
> 
> Unless they develop ultra efficient solar tech.. that is probably the only free resource they could use.



China is a major coal producer at present and also has one of the world's more significant oil fields (though it has peaked by most reports). Also some gas and signficant hydro resources.

So it's not exactly a country brimming with energy resources relative to potential consumption but they aren't like, say, Japan or France (and increasingly the UK) with near total dependence on imports.


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## Mr J (13 September 2009)

> Could the balance of power be shifting ?




Many have said it's been shifting for quite a while. Really, it was there to see once China started its economic revolution a few decades ago.



> The day China and India become dangerous is when they become self sustaining.




I imagine their populations are far too large to become self-sufficient anytime soon. More so for India. The miners don't even seem to care to predict when the party will stop. 



> Wasn`t a nice world last time a country tried to take control.




Why, what happened to the US? I wouldn't worry about physical force, why bother with that when you can just buy everyone up?


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## MrBurns (16 December 2012)

Saw this on the ABC last night, I don't think China is in much trouble and it appears they will need our minerals for a long time to come -


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## noirua (17 February 2013)

China's inflation jumps to 6-month high - DailyFinance
http://www.dailyfinance.com/article/chinas-inflation-jumps-to-6-month-high/946555/


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## notting (17 February 2013)

They have been lying about inflation for months.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9746&p=733281&viewfull=1#post733281
The hard landing is well and truly on the cards.
It's just a matter of when.


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## sydboy007 (17 February 2013)

Personally I have more faith in American economics than I do in the Chinese castrated version they apply.

The gross misallocation of resources in China is going to cause massive damage to their economy.   The shadow banking system is already at 40% of GDP and shaky.  The large Govt owned banks have bad debts that are massive by western standards.

The fact that access to resources is determined by who you know rather than generating the highest profit is going to cruel their industry.

China is similar to Japan just a few years before the Japanese credit bubble burst.  Every time the Chinese Govt tries to rebalance the economy towards domestic consumption growth falls so fast they get scared and start spending up big on asset construction.  They have the lowest consumption of any major economy in history.

They keep kicking the can down the road, and the problem is all the "wealth" they've stored overseas is practically useless to them because as soon as they start to use it they will cause a jump in their currency and crystallise all the losses they've accumulated over the decades by selling their currency on the cheap.

My fear is what it will do the the 1 trick pony Australian economy when the Chinese crash shockwave hits our shores.

As for Chinese political power, well I think they've overstepped in recent years and a lot of Asia has started to turn back to the US to help be the military counterweight.  You only have to look at their aggression over the Senkaku / Diaoyu islands and the way they have used their economic and military clout against the Japanese and Philippines.  The rest of the world got a huge wakeup call when they severely restricted the export of rare earths.

For all of America's faults, they have generally pushed the world in the right direction.  So far I don't think anyone would say the Chinese Govt is doing the same.


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## sydboy007 (17 February 2013)

Dowdy said:


> Anyone actually been to China. I have.
> 
> If it had a good water supply and spoke english (well most do already), then i wouldn't mind living there.




You have got to be kidding.  I was there just before the Olympics and found the majority of people in Beijing and to a lesser extent Shanghai, to have little to no western sensibilities.  The guttural spitting, the inability to queue, the shouting.  Then there's the pollution.  My eyes were sore and red for the 10 days I was in the country.

It's prob only the second time I've been on holiday and been glad to get on the plane and out of a country.


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## Julia (17 February 2013)

sydboy007 said:


> You have got to be kidding.  I was there just before the Olympics and found the majority of people in Beijing and to a lesser extent Shanghai, to have little to no western sensibilities.



Perhaps they regard some western 'sensibilities' as distasteful also.
Let's allow different cultures to value what matters to them without wanting to impose our values on them.


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## CanOz (29 May 2013)

Oh dear.....



> President Li: China can post 7-8% GDP growth rate over 5-10 years; Do not see a systemic property bubble- China banks have lots of opportunities for growth. - Source TradeTheNews.com




I didn't think so either, four years ago....then they ramped it up.

There is very little liquidity in the housing market in most places outside the major cities where lots of empty apartments, although sold, could never be re-sold. At some stage, people will start selling, there will be no buyers and the prices will really start to fall.

And yet the building continues, i can see a dozen cranes from my kitchen window.

This must be the biggest bubble in history.

CanOz


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## Gringotts Bank (29 May 2013)

The Chinese have hacked there way into finding the plans of the new ASIO building!  LOL.  To gut the building and start again would cost a fair whack of $$$, I'd imagine.  Send the re-design bill to Jinping, since he probably gave the go ahead for this activity.


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## FlyingFox (29 May 2013)

CanOz said:


> Oh dear.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Since you have more first hand experience than most here, do you think there is a possibility of a soft landing? Or will the government keep propping the market until it is unsustainable?


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## CanOz (29 May 2013)

FlyingFox said:


> Since you have more first hand experience than most here, do you think there is a possibility of a soft landing? Or will the government keep propping the market until it is unsustainable?




I don't know, they have a few aces up thier sleeve yet but they need to get on with it. They could privatize the SOE's, that would rake in a ton of dough, 100s of billions. I don't think they could have much left in the tank for stimulus...other than rates, but there is too much liquidity here now...

Its all anecdotal though...I'm just an observer.

CanOz


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## FlyingFox (29 May 2013)

Very interesting video on the "Chinese house bubble"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRgjbOjTQwQ


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## notting (29 May 2013)

Australian Businesses and their leaders are referred to by the Chinese as enemies of the state!
The Chineses install military strategists at Australian business meetings!



> known as the Department of Enemy Work , it specialises in ''carrying out work of disintegrating the enemy and uniting with friendly military elements'', according to a 2003 manual
> 
> Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/w...ess-leaders-20130524-2k717.html#ixzz2UgpAmaJu


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## Aussiejeff (30 May 2013)

notting said:


> Australian Businesses and their leaders are referred to by the Chinese as enemies of the state!
> The Chineses install military strategists at Australian business meetings!




Please don't speak ill of the Chineses.... 
Apparently they are our financial saviours - our last hope for economic Nirvana. 
And Money after all, is all that matters - apparently.

Let us prey...


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## Aussiejeff (30 May 2013)

I love it..... social engineering on a Grand Scale. Mao would be most pleased...and Chairperson JuLiar too...



> *China issues civilised behaviour guide for tourists*




http://www.news.com.au/travel/world...ide-for-tourists/story-e6frfqai-1226653400934

and this too....



> *Insane pictures of gridlock in China
> *




http://www.news.com.au/travel/world...ridlock-in-china/story-e6frfqai-1226653423650

Let's hope they grow their pop much bigger faster - we need$ their money$!


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## notting (30 May 2013)

It's brow raising to consider that Wang Yang, one of China's four vice-premiers, said, "The quality and breeding of some tourists are not high yet," emplying that he himself and the communist dictators have breading and are quality people!!  Well just have a read of how the well bread leadership treats it's loyal workers all over China -




> Thirty-one Chinese were rescued from a brick works in Linfen in Shanxi run by the son of a Communist Party official. They worked for a year as slaves””with no salary and only bread and water for nourishment. Eight were so traumatized by the experience they couldn’t speak except to mutter their names. They carried uncooled brick and walked barefoot inside the kilns. Their bodies were covered with bruises, wounds and burns. One local newspaper reported, “The grime on their bodies was so thick it could scraped off with a knife.”
> 
> The kilns in Linfen were like prisons. Fierce dogs and thugs were used to deter people from trying to escape. In some cases workers were abducted and worked until a ransom was paid for their release. One newspaper reported the case of a boy who was abducted then ransomed. Instead of being transported home he was taken to another kiln and put back to work. According to media reports one child was beaten to death with a shovel and buried at night and another was beaten to death with a hammer for working too slow.




No wonder Australia and other developed economies are finding it hard to compete with such dedicated slave force.

Oh and if you like the red colour of their money.  That's what they want!  Once your addicted to it that's when they  start to manipulate and infiltrate your politics, news articles and so on.  Till you suddnely find you have joined the their work force!
You will find it hard to find anything in the Murcoch press that tells the truth about China he has been in their pocket for decades!  That's how they do it.


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## >Apocalypto< (30 May 2013)

Aussiejeff said:


> I love it..... social engineering on a Grand Scale. Mao would be most pleased...and Chairperson JuLiar too...
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/travel/world...ide-for-tourists/story-e6frfqai-1226653400934




wish our government did the same thing for our tourists, never been so ashamed of being Australian then when i was in Phuket last year... some of the aussies there where just fraaking disgraceful.

By the end of the trip i just told people i was Austrian.


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## FxTrader (30 May 2013)

sydboy007 said:


> My fear is what it will do the the 1 trick pony Australian economy when the Chinese crash shockwave hits our shores.




Ross Garnaut has recently commented on just such an outcome in relation to a fall in demand for resources...

http://www.brw.com.au/p/business/recession_garnaut_sooner_rather_WQRcjOFyNBxSt627NaPUPK

The key excerpt from the article for me was this...

*"The speech described how the end of the mining boom will cause a fall in real incomes and spending as the dollar tumbles. In turn, this will require widespread “restraint” from people, who will need to accept lower wages growth, and businesses, whose profit margins will need to be squeezed.

Without the painful adjustment, Australia risks a surge in inflation, higher interest rates and a brutal recession that damages living standards."*

Given how weak other sectors of the economy are now a significant slowdown in China looms as a big threat to our economy.  Probably just a question of when not if this will occur.


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## FlyingFox (30 May 2013)

FxTrader said:


> Ross Garnaut has recently commented on just such an outcome in relation to a fall in demand for resources...
> 
> http://www.brw.com.au/p/business/recession_garnaut_sooner_rather_WQRcjOFyNBxSt627NaPUPK
> 
> ...




That is a very damning article ... However I suspect the usual reply from everyone will but we are different...


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## Intrinsic Value (30 May 2013)

FxTrader said:


> Ross Garnaut has recently commented on just such an outcome in relation to a fall in demand for resources...
> 
> http://www.brw.com.au/p/business/recession_garnaut_sooner_rather_WQRcjOFyNBxSt627NaPUPK
> 
> ...




I agree I think it is inevitable and it will be brutal.

A whole generation hasn't ever experienced a recession but I remember well the recessions of the early 80s and early 90's and things were pretty bad.

The problem is compounded now by the level of personal debt out there. If things get ugly those people will be very vulnerable. A housing crisis is well on the cards if we have a recession with large unemployment especially with the mortgages many people are carrying.

I don't think we are going to reach that stage for a couple of years yet as there is still a  large amount of capex going on in Australia but a sudden downturn in commodity prices could be telling.

Nothing stays up forever and Australia has had a golden run but sooner or later a recession is inevitable and absolutely necessary. Major adjustments will  need to  happen and cutbacks to govt handouts and subsidies will be on the chopping block.


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## Trembling Hand (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*

If anyone understands this,



> (CN) China 1-yr swap falls 36bps to 3.71% (lowest since June 14th)
> - Source TradeTheNews.com




Thats been the cause of the mess the last week.


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## mr. jeff (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Same.  I suspect a fair bit more up/down/up/down for a while.... so I'm still sitting out.




I got chewed yesterday....all over the shop> It's like juggling chainsaws at the moment.


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## McLovin (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> If anyone understands this,
> 
> 
> 
> Thats been the cause of the mess the last week.




Here's what I don't understand. If overnight cash went to 25% in a developed economy (as it did in China) we'd have a full blow banking crisis worse than 2008, but in China it just seemed to be business as usual. Is there something I'm missing here? It's like WWF, everything looks real but it is all stage managed.


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## CanOz (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> If anyone understands this,
> 
> 
> 
> Thats been the cause of the mess the last week.




Well what i'm having a hard time to understand is what difference it all makes. I mean its not like the Fed, where they control the rate at the discount window, or LIBOR (fraud aside) where they agree on a lending rate....

This is a state controlled bank that controls other state controlled banks...Its just weird.

If they really wanted to reign in lending why didn't they just raise rates??

CanOz

- - - Updated - - -



McLovin said:


> It's like WWF, everything looks real but it is all stage managed.




The WWF is staged

Great analogy though


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## sinner (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Well what i'm having a hard time to understand is what difference it all makes. I mean its not like the Fed, where they control the rate at the discount window, or LIBOR (fraud aside) where they agree on a lending rate....




Actually it's exactly like LIBOR, in this case its SHIBOR. Eurodollars are the USD interbank instrument, I guess you would call these "euroyuan". There are also euroyen, euroswiss and euribor (EUR LIBOR) instruments.

Basically denoting X denominated deposits outside the local banking system of X country.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar


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## CanOz (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



sinner said:


> Actually it's exactly like LIBOR, in this case its SHIBOR. Eurodollars are the USD interbank instrument, I guess you would call these "euroyuan". There are also euroyen, euroswiss and euribor (EUR LIBOR) instruments.
> 
> Basically denoting X denominated deposits outside the local banking system of X country.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar




Yes, i understand that its meant to "look" like an overnight rate, smell like an overnight rate, but it doesn't act like an overnight rate...


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## sinner (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



McLovin said:


> Here's what I don't understand. If overnight cash went to 25% in a developed economy (as it did in China) we'd have a full blow banking crisis worse than 2008, but in China it just seemed to be business as usual. Is there something I'm missing here? It's like WWF, everything looks real but it is all stage managed.




In China, how much interbank lending really goes on? I assume very little compared to other countries, since most banks are SOE, they pony up to the PBoC window for credit, not other SOE banks.

- - - Updated - - -



CanOz said:


> Yes, i understand that its meant to "look" like an overnight rate, smell like an overnight rate, but it doesn't act like an overnight rate...




Well you could absolutely argue the same thing about LIBOR (and all related instruments like TED spread) as of 2008, when the Fed opened up their own window massively and banks reduced their interbank activity proportionally. Even in Aug 2011 when all other euribor and euroswiss curves were inverting, eurodollar curve was sitting pretty at least 1 year out!


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## CanOz (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*

Fair enough, but what i have a hard time understanding is how the whole thing can just fix itself almost OVERNIGHT...

As McLovin said, an increase of 25% in LIBOR would be a catastrophic event sure to freeze up credit for weeks wouldn't it?


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## sinner (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Fair enough, but what i have a hard time understanding is how the whole thing can just fix itself almost OVERNIGHT...
> 
> As McLovin said, an increase of 25% in LIBOR would be a catastrophic event sure to freeze up credit for weeks wouldn't it?




My guess is, that just like 1st world banks in 2008, the reason it fixed itself is not because interbank lending conditions got much much better, but simply that banks stopped using the instrument for credit, so the *rate falls on no volume*. It's not that they've lost access to credit completely, they are just getting it direct from the CB discount window now.

As for definitions of "fix itself" I would say things aren't fixed until the curve returns to a normal shape, it's not just about the overnight rate. If you go here you can see the curve is messy as hell http://www.shibor.org/shibor/web/html/ (in a normal curve overnight should yield the lowest and 1Y should yield the most with a systematic rise in the yield as duration increases)


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## CanOz (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



sinner said:


> My guess is, that just like 1st world banks in 2008, the reason it fixed itself is not because interbank lending conditions got much much better, but simply that banks stopped using the instrument for credit, so the *rate falls on no volume*. It's not that they've lost access to credit completely, they are just getting it direct from the *CB discount window now*.
> 
> As for definitions of "fix itself" I would say things aren't fixed until the curve returns to a normal shape, it's not just about the overnight rate. If you go here you can see the curve is messy as hell http://www.shibor.org/shibor/web/html/ (in a normal curve overnight should yield the lowest and 1Y should yield the most with a systematic rise in the yield as duration increases)




So the discount window is the injection of liquidity that they mentioned yesterday?


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## sinner (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



CanOz said:


> So the discount window is the injection of liquidity that they mentioned yesterday?




Got link? All I saw yest was this:


    PBOC OFFICIAL SAYS FINANCIAL MARKET STABLE THIS YEAR
    PBOC OFFICIAL SAYS MONEY MARKET FLUCTUATIONS TEMPORARY
    PBOC OFFICIAL SAYS SEASONAL FACTORS TO GRADUALLY DISAPPEAR
    PBOC OFFICIAL SAYS TO CLOSELY WATCH LIQUIDITY CONDITIONS
    PBOC OFFICIAL SAYS TO STEP UP COMMUNICATION TO GUIDE RATES
    PBOC OFFICIAL SAYS LIQUIDITY AMPLE

(i.e implicitly no  new injection)


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## Trembling Hand (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



sinner said:


> My guess is, that just like 1st world banks in 2008, the reason it fixed itself is not because interbank lending conditions got much much better, but simply that banks stopped using the instrument for credit, so the *rate falls on no volume*. It's not that they've lost access to credit completely, they are just getting it direct from the CB discount window now.




Yeah I think you are right there. Everyone firstly rushes in and with the extra vol and reduced supply the rate sky-rockets. Once everyone realises the cupboards are empty no one shops there any more.

Squeeze is still on. traders just playing the bounce.


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## sinner (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*

An important thing to keep in mind as well is CDS. CDS are kind of like the bond traders (more efficient) put option. If you're a legit holder of debt then you can make a lot of extra money trading in and out of the CDS. 

China 5Y CDS is quite high, like 2008 and 2011 high. So this is a pretty good indication of legit hedging demand, and at the same time, that perception of things being "fixed" in the interbank rate market is because risk has been hedged out to CDS.


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## McLovin (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



sinner said:


> My guess is, that just like 1st world banks in 2008, the reason it fixed itself is not because interbank lending conditions got much much better, but simply that banks stopped using the instrument for credit, so the *rate falls on no volume*. It's not that they've lost access to credit completely, they are just getting it direct from the CB discount window now.




So there was some sort of mistiming by the PBOC initially that allowed the rate to climb that high, presumably if they had flooded the market with cash SHIBOR would have fallen? Or were they sending a message to banks about their lending?


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## Trembling Hand (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



McLovin said:


> Or were they sending a message to banks about their lending?




No mistake. Thats what they were trying to do. I bet though they didn't expect/want the massive smack down in the markets.


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## CanOz (26 June 2013)

This is all very interesting, thanks for the explanation Sinner. 

So the cost to insure is also rising, so we're sure there is higher isk perceived there now, at least by those who can afford insurance. 

What are the key things to look for next? Will the market key in on these things, i.e. the index futs?

CanOz

- - - Updated - - -



Trembling Hand said:


> No mistake. Thats what they were trying to do. I bet though they didn't expect/want the massive smack down in the markets.




This should be a good thing though right? That the markets react to this info? I just don't know how much weight to put behind the Shanghai futures movements...say compared to the HSI. These developed markets should be pretty good at pricing risk, compared to less mature markets like Shanghai?


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## McLovin (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> No mistake. Thats what they were trying to do. I bet though they didn't expect/want the massive smack down in the markets.




Interesting. The Chinese certainly don't take Western sensibilities about market stability too seriously.


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## sinner (26 June 2013)

McLovin said:


> So there was some sort of mistiming by the PBOC initially that allowed the rate to climb that high, presumably if they had flooded the market with cash SHIBOR would have fallen? Or were they sending a message to banks about their lending?




Yeah like TH said, they are definitely trying to signal the opposite of other CBs in the sense of

a) Tightening in response to rises in asset classes (real estate especially)
b) Killing off shadow funding market (Copper Funding CCFD stuff)
c) Reigning in dodgy lending

If you have not been reading Michael Pettis blog "China Financial Markets" you are missing out, the guy lives in China and teaches Central Bankers-to-be at Peking University: http://www.mpettis.com/



CanOz said:


> This is all very interesting, thanks for the explanation Sinner.
> 
> So the cost to insure is also rising, so we're sure there is higher isk perceived there now, at least by those who can afford insurance.
> 
> ...




To me it's been obvious the SHCOMP has been marking down pretty much non stop since 2010? Very similar pattern to EURJPY prior to the BoJ interventions. In fact I would say it's one of the very few indices that actually look fairly priced on a fundamental basis.

Key things to look out for: 
* reinversion of the interbank curve or the 2Y-10Y China spread (might have to replicate synthetically).
* Bid/Ask spreads on options and CDS (when they're very wide hedging becomes impractical and expensive)
* Volatility in the timeseries (index, SHIBOR, whatever)
* Spreads which should never break, breaking (e.g. in 2008 I saw ETF spreads like SPY:VV widen out to massive size, which should never ever happen)


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## Trembling Hand (26 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



McLovin said:


> Interesting. The Chinese certainly don't take Western sensibilities about market stability too seriously.




Yeah but I think they are have been given a self directed lesson!


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## McLovin (26 June 2013)

sinner said:


> Yeah like TH said, they are definitely trying to signal the opposite of other CBs in the sense of
> 
> a) Tightening in response to rises in asset classes (real estate especially)
> b) Killing off shadow funding market (Copper Funding CCFD stuff)
> ...




Thanks, Sinner. I had Pettis blog on my reader then Google got rid of Reader. I'll have to go and have a read again.


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## CanOz (26 June 2013)

> Yuan loan to deposit ratio at approx 60%, below the 75% required level - Chinese press- UPDATE - Source TradeTheNews.com




This is the leverage that they're employing right? So, this isn't good that its getting higher is it?


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## sinner (26 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> This is the leverage that they're employing right? So, this isn't good that its getting higher is it?




There is huge amounts of unofficial and ugly leverage in the Chinese financial system CanOz, official stuff like loan/deposits doesn't mean too much in a centrally planned economy.

Check out the Copper Financing Deals.

http://www.mpettis.com/2011/05/25/looking-for-debt/

That's where the leverage is really coming from.


----------



## CanOz (26 June 2013)

sinner said:


> There is huge amounts of unofficial and ugly leverage in the Chinese financial system CanOz, official stuff like loan/deposits doesn't mean too much in a centrally planned economy.
> 
> Check out the Copper Financing Deals.
> 
> ...




Good grief....here i was thinking these people were not _creative_...


----------



## sinner (26 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> Good grief....here i was thinking these people were not _creative_...




So that was 2011, back when Michael Pettis started telling people about it.

Now look last month, before all this SHIBOR stuff started:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...ives-end-copper-financing-chinas-lehman-event



> China's State Administration on Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on May 5 finally passed new regulations which will effectively end such financing deals.






> GS --
> ...
> 
> Our view is that the bulk of copper stored in bonded warehouses in China – at least 510,000t at present, as well as some inbound copper shipments into China – is being used to unlock the CNY-USD interest rate differential. This material has not been entirely unavailable to the market (deals can be broken if costs rise, such as a tightening of LME spreads), but the inventory has been effectively financed by factors exogenous to the copper market for some time.
> ...


----------



## CanOz (26 June 2013)

sinner said:


> So that was 2011, back when Michael Pettis started telling people about it.
> 
> Now look last month, before all this SHIBOR stuff started:
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...ives-end-copper-financing-chinas-lehman-event





Yeah, that is the bottom line here really is that the shadow market will stay ahead of regulations enough to get the place in the crap big time....

You know i used to think that the Chinese didn't like debt, they liked to pay cash...so much has changed since I've been here and they're addicted to credit now. They seem oblivious to the fact that it needs to be paid back too, they just figure they'll roll it over...

That's why i'm nervous...I've seen all this behavior in my new extended family and we don't like it...all i can think of is multiplying that behavior by a few 100 million and you have a big problem...:1zhelp:

CanOz


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## CanOz (26 June 2013)

Wish you told me sooner Sinner

The Copper ETF...lets look for rally's to sell then shall we?


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## sinner (26 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> Wish you told me sooner Sinner
> 
> The Copper ETF...lets look for rally's to sell then shall we?




Those who've been paying attention been watching Copper since Jan 2011 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fo...near-term-plunging-forgotten-levels-1500-2016



> Specialist copper analyst Simon Hunt looks to copper peaking in Q1 but fading badly thereafter, then a parabolic rise in 2012 followed by a drastic collapse 2013-2016.
> 
> ...
> 
> Bottom line: there is somewhere between 3MT and 4MT of cathode warehoused outside the reporting system in China.




Simon Hunt is a very highly respected (by me at least) copper analyst.


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## CanOz (26 June 2013)

Unreal, the things you learn in a day...

There must be a dozen different ways to play China, long and short. 

I'm trying to find fundamental plays with ETFs and then use technical s to enter a swing or postion...not just for China plays but all kinds...

I just don't know where to start....

CanOz


----------



## sinner (26 June 2013)

Just my 

SHCOMP been going steady down for a long while now, not really playing the money pump game with the other indices.

If you look at the 5Y chart of ETFs like ASX:IZZ (FTSE China 25 Index) which are priced in AUD, you can see what I mean.

I reckon the price is starting to look like fair value pricing for good long term returns. Where's the "China Small Value" ETF when you need it?


----------



## CanOz (26 June 2013)

I was thinking we might have further to fall, the measured move on the Weekly FXI pattern is 16...not that these patterns always play out.

Here are the two ETFs...

At the moment I'm waiting for a PB on the daily to short FXI.

CanOz


----------



## notting (29 June 2013)

> The main question is whether the market believes Beijing will remain in control as it tackles runaway credit growth. It wants to cut credit expansion, but so far this year it has grown at unprecedented rates. Debt is building.
> 
> The majority view is that China will ride the bumps and settle at a slower rate of growth as it adjusts to a consumption-led rather than investment-led economy.
> 
> Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/c...-for-growth-20130628-2p2r0.html#ixzz2XbEvl9cX




There has never been any evidence that China is making the transition from the Tiger economy to a consumption-led economy.  
This is a naive economists fantasy. 

People that make these statements do not understand the ruthlessness of Chinas ex leaders. 
They had not interest in the country or the people other than how to use them to feed off.
The last leadership simply kept the foot on the accelerator because they new they would be getting off before the train smashes through the station.  
There is no way to stop this runaway speed train. 

It's very simple.  It's what the Chinese do and have always done.  They have simply never had the opportunity to do it on such a grand scale with modern technology.
No different to the way they dealt with the environment and pollution which is equally out of control and irreversible, unsalvageable.

It's all the same.  

The Dragon has cancer!  
The reaper is grinning 
And hells smelter pots are boiling.


----------



## sinner (29 June 2013)

Speaking of Michael Pettis,

Mish often posts private emails from Michael on his blog (with permission), so if you want to hear what M Pettis had to say on the interest rate volatility, check out the link below

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/michael-pettis-on-china-liquidity.html



> ...
> 
> 
> The most important effect is likely to be on demand for wealth management products. I believe that there is RMB 1-2 trillion of WMP coming due before the end of June, and most if not all of this will have to be rolled over. Already it seems that WMP rates are rising. Several friends received SMS offers on their mobiles (this happens a lot in China) for short-term WMP deposits at 6%, which is 100-200 bps higher than we have seen in the past and higher than the 5% cited in the People’s Daily article. Until recently, the average rate on WMP seems to have been around 4.3%.
> ...


----------



## sliMexchange (30 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Anyone else see a trend here ?
> 
> China is consuming resources in record volumes.
> What are they doing ?
> ...





I'd trust China over the U.S. any day of the week.


----------



## MrBurns (30 June 2013)

Just watched 60 minutes, it seems our economic survival depends on a pending basket case economy where they are building entire cities that are empty because no one can afford to live there, 700 million people survive on about $2 a day.
So the building stops, they have the biggest housing bubble in history.
No more building no more steel needed.............


----------



## FlyingFox (30 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Just watched 60 minutes, it seems our economic survival depends on a pending basket case economy where they are building entire cities that are empty because no one can afford to live there, 700 million people survive on about $2 a day.
> So the building stops, they have the biggest housing bubble in history.
> No more building no more steel needed.............




Many have been trying to highlight this point for months if not almost a year on here. Seems most don't want to admit that the fairytale will ever end (not talking about ASF but in general). 

The question is will it be a slow deflation of the bubble with reduced growth in China or another financial crisis?


----------



## MrBurns (30 June 2013)

FlyingFox said:


> Many have been trying to highlight this point for months if not almost a year on here. Seems most don't want to admit that the fairytale will ever end (not talking about ASF but in general).
> 
> The question is will it be a slow deflation of the bubble with reduced growth in China or another financial crisis?




The scale of the whole thing almost defies belief, if they stumble we're in for it big time and I really don't see how they can avoid it, but. then again, I don't know enough about the big picture there to be sure.


----------



## FlyingFox (30 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> The scale of the whole thing almost defies belief, if they stumble we're in for it big time and I really don't see how they can avoid it, but. then again, I don't know enough about the big picture there to be sure.




I think it hard to get a clear picture because the "investors" don't really care if the properties are sitting empty as long as the paper prices are going up. Some of the economic realities are lost on many of these people. Also post GFC, the construction boom has helped shield the Chinese economy from drop in exports to US and Europe therefore the government didn't care until recently. 

I remember reading an article in 2010 about empty apartments based on zero electricity usage in the prior six months. The number was shocking to say the least...64.5 million. While this might not be correct, I don't think it was wrong by a factor of 10 either. http://english.caixin.com/2010-08-03/100166589.html.

One thing I am certain of, we are in s*** regardless of whether China reduces growth or there is a financial crisis because I don't think they can continue on the current path for too long. Rudd mentioned it this week; I was very surprised at the reaction to his comments.


----------



## MrBurns (30 June 2013)

I don't understand how they can build like that and not be concerned about lack of income.....anyone here would be wound up by banks in seconds flat, unless they used cash...


----------



## FlyingFox (30 June 2013)

notting said:


> There has never been any evidence that China is making the transition from the Tiger economy to a consumption-led economy.
> This is a naive economists fantasy.




Whether China can make the transition or not, what bugs me is the supposed ease at which this transition is meant to occur. Many observers/economists seem to be of the opinion this will happen over the next few years rather automatically with a minor reduction in economic growth in China.

- - - Updated - - -



MrBurns said:


> I don't understand how they can build like that and not be concerned about lack of income.....anyone here would be wound up by banks in seconds flat, unless they used cash...




Different culture and values? I have been told by a few people form China that "used" apartments loose value quite quickly. Don't know if it's true or not, just word of mouth. 

Just hazarding a guess, I would say that it is a combination of cash and the fact that people are happy that the property prices are going up. The return on bank deposits are quite low compared to returns in prop. Many are equating property to money (not wealth but money) not realizing that they may not be as liquid. Also prices haven't fell since the market was opened up by the government about a decade or two ago therefore it is all good.

Like here, many prop investors buying since 2008 are loosing money but they expect to make it up when the prices go up. That's what all the spruikers are telling them lol.


----------



## MrBurns (30 June 2013)

FlyingFox said:


> Different culture and values? I have been told by a few people form China that "used" apartments loose value quite quickly. Don't know if it's true or not, just word of mouth.
> 
> Just hazarding a guess, I would say that it is a combination of cash and the fact that people are happy that the property prices are going up. The return on bank deposits are quite low compared to returns in prop. Many are equating property to money (not wealth but money) not realizing that they may not be as liquid. Also prices haven't fell since the market was opened up by the government about a decade or two ago therefore it is all good.
> 
> Like here, many prop investors buying since 2008 are loosing money but they expect to make it up when the prices go up. That's what all the spruikers are telling them lol.




There has to be more to it than that, perhaps they're banking on the population move from rural to city living, they have enormous expectations there, I don't know............. it's a mystery.


----------



## FlyingFox (30 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> There has to be more to it than that, perhaps they're banking on the population move from rural to city living, they have enormous expectations there, I don't know............. it's a mystery.




GREED mate, usually no great mystery beyond that. I am not sure how much government involvement is there but just like here, the local govs make a killing from taxes and duties and therefore it is in their best interests to continue building.

Also think about it. They have 1.35 billion people. If you believe that there are 65 million empty apartments or houses today (say the numbers in 2010 were wrong) than they can house another 200 million people in them then if these were filled up, you would have ~920 million in urban centers and ~ 70% urbanization (from various Wikipedia articles, numbers from 2012). Doubt you can achieve or want to achieve much higher than that. 

Now the only way many of these people will be able to afford these places if they are handed out. I don't see that happening...

The most important thing that everyone is conveniently forgetting is that China's population growth is declining and infact their population will peak somewhere ~ 2040 at ~1.4 billion. Therefore for all intents an purposes the will have no population growth from now. Moreover their labour force has already began to shrink http://www.cnbc.com/id/100392731.


----------



## CanOz (30 June 2013)

Thats key here as F.Fox mentioned, liquidity...try to sell that apartment that they say has gone up in value since you bought it...yeah right.

Bubble, oh yeah. In 2008, i knew it had further to go, that things were just getting wound up, but this is ludicrous. 

Apartments are empty, but owned....sometimes rented without being decorated, just bare concrete.

CanOz


----------



## lusk (1 July 2013)

MrBurns said:


> I don't understand how they can build like that and not be concerned about lack of income.....anyone here would be wound up by banks in seconds flat, unless they used cash...




Given the government controls information would we ever be told the truth.

Its quite likely that it could have all imploded and Chinese people don't own them, its the banks and the government.


----------



## CanOz (1 July 2013)

lusk said:


> Given the government controls information would we ever be told the truth.
> 
> Its quite likely that it could have all imploded and Chinese people don't own them, its the banks and the government.




The biggest problem with the information is the culture, its related to face...if anyone spent any time in Asia you would understand this.

Allot of apartments are still owned by the developers, waiting to be sold. Until this happens no one gets paid, no employees, no concrete suppliers, no construction contractors, no banks...understand? My father in law's construction company doesn't get paid until years after the project is finished sometimes, his concrete business has 90% receivables over 360 days...In the meantime, the bank loans just keep getting rolled.

CanOz


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## Trembling Hand (1 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> his concrete business has 90% receivables over 360 days..




 Geeeezusssss!!!


----------



## satanoperca (1 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> his concrete business has 90% receivables over 360 days...In the meantime, the bank loans just keep getting rolled.
> 
> CanOz




Talk about a very very risky game of dominos. One falls and can literally bring the house down.

Surely no one can sustain a business based on this.

Cheers


----------



## Julia (1 July 2013)

FlyingFox said:


> One thing I am certain of, we are in s*** regardless of whether China reduces growth or there is a financial crisis because I don't think they can continue on the current path for too long. Rudd mentioned it this week; I was very surprised at the reaction to his comments.



What was that reaction, FF, and from whom?


----------



## FlyingFox (1 July 2013)

Julia said:


> What was that reaction, FF, and from whom?




Mainly form the mining industry. I think Atlas Iron chairman David Flanagan was the most vocal. 

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/06/mining-boss-slams-rudd-doomsaying/


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## Tyler Durden (1 July 2013)

I saw that segment on 60 Minutes and was amazed. As I watched it, I thought, even if people in China could afford it, they would choose to buy property overseas instead, which is exactly what they're doing.


----------



## FlyingFox (1 July 2013)

Tyler Durden said:


> I saw that segment on 60 Minutes and was amazed. As I watched it, I thought, even if people in China could afford it, they would choose to buy property overseas instead, which is exactly what they're doing.




And next you will have empty apartments in Sydney, Melbourne, London, New York ....


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## CanOz (1 July 2013)

FlyingFox said:


> And next you will have empty apartments in Sydney, Melbourne, London, New York ....



Wouldn't that be an ironic twist...the Chinese offloading thier overseas real estate at fire sale prices back to the people that sold them the places at fire sale prices in the first place! Lol...

CanOz


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## FlyingFox (1 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> Wouldn't that be an ironic twist...the Chinese offloading thier overseas real estate at fire sale prices back to the people that sold them the places at fire sale prices in the first place! Lol...
> 
> CanOz




lol...I am sure there are some interesting times ahead, especially since the Chinese are being touted as the great saviors of the Aussie housing market.


----------



## DB008 (2 July 2013)

Tyler Durden said:


> I saw that segment on 60 Minutes and was amazed. As I watched it, I thought, even if people in China could afford it, they would choose to buy property overseas instead, which is exactly what they're doing.




The Chinese 'Ghost Towns' have been around for a while.

I'm surprised it took 60 minutes this long to latch onto a story about it.


----------



## Aussiejeff (5 July 2013)

> China suspended the release of industry-specific data from a monthly survey of manufacturing purchasing managers, with an official saying there’s limited time to analyze the large volume of responses.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-in-added-hurdle-for-scrutiny-of-economy.html

Looks like they are trying to save some face.....in the face of deteriorating economy


----------



## CanOz (5 July 2013)

Aussiejeff said:


> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-in-added-hurdle-for-scrutiny-of-economy.html
> 
> Looks like they are trying to save some face.....in the face of deteriorating economy




Not enought time to doctor...err I mean analyze the numbers. What a joke.

I bet the market doesn't like this crap. 

They'll find out the hard way that you can't fool the market for long.

CanOz


----------



## sinner (5 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> They'll find out the hard way that you can't fool the market for long.




I didn't realise the market looked like it had been fooled? Unlike Chinese realestate, stocks have been on markdown since the GFC.


----------



## CanOz (5 July 2013)

sinner said:


> I didn't realise the market looked like it had been fooled? Unlike Chinese realestate, stocks have been on markdown since the GFC.




Its been a slide for sure Sinner, i guess i'm expecting a more dramatic sell off. 

I'm probably wrong...

CanOz


----------



## sinner (5 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> Its been a slide for sure Sinner, i guess i'm expecting a more dramatic sell off.
> 
> I'm probably wrong...
> 
> CanOz




I don't have a horse in the race either way (yet), except for through whichever underlying stocks in various indices I hold which may have China exposure.

One valuation metric which is useful for applying across countries is the "Total Market Cap / GNP" ratio, which I couldn't get a hold of, but the World Bank has historical data for TMC/GDP, which is a close enough proxy I guess (they released the 2012 datapoint EOFY, a bonus for us). A quick chart:




A shorthand forecast using the 2012 TMC/GDP number assuming 2%/annum growth in EPS and 2% dividend yield:

1.02 * (0.65/0.449)^(1/10) - 1 + 0.02

(as per http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130318.htm)

returns a (crude but effective) forecast 10Y nominal total return of 7.8%/annum, which isn't backup the truck zone (considering the potential for volatility), but certainly priced significantly cheaper than a lot of other country indices. A similar but more generous forecast for the US (6% EPS growth and 2% yield, but TMC/GDP is much much higher) only returns a forecast return of 3-4%/annum.


----------



## Tyler Durden (9 July 2013)

Very interesting read. I think the author backfires in his attempt to persuade people of the pros of shadow banking. China collapse coming soon.



> China’s shadow bankers are easy to demonise. Like Wang, many are nicotine-stained and seemingly unsophisticated. Their methods are unorthodox, possibly even unsavory. Their loans don’t show up on any balance sheets. They look like a disaster waiting to happen.
> 
> I believe these fears are misplaced, and I should know: Eight months after my visit to Hangzhou, I became a shadow banker myself. Since 2011, I have run a microcredit firm in Guangzhou, which provides loans to thousands of small-scale entrepreneurs: florists, restaurateurs, fish farmers, vegetable growers, roadside hawkers.
> 
> Although we charge about 24 per cent annually for our money, demand remains virtually unlimited. Our customers are too small and too unstable to get traditional bank loans. At the same time, because we keep our loan amounts small - $US20,000 apiece on average - and because we have close contact with our clients, the business has proved reasonably secure. Our bad debts have not strayed above 5 per cent since the firm was founded five years ago.




http://www.smh.com.au/business/china/why-i-became-a-shadow-banker-in-china-20130709-2pnvi.html


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## MrBurns (12 July 2013)

This is why they may rule the world one day -


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## MrBurns (12 July 2013)

I'm told by someone who does a lot of business there that the empty cities as shown on 60 minutes will be filled and not to take any notice of reports to the contrary..............for what it's worth.


----------



## Aussiejeff (13 July 2013)

MrBurns said:


> I'm told by someone who does a lot of business there that the empty cities as shown on 60 minutes will be filled and not to take any notice of reports to the contrary..............for what it's worth.




"One person's view does not an economy make.." - old Chinese proverb.


----------



## MARKETWINNER (13 July 2013)

In the short run there will be some slow down in Chinese economy. In the long run they will have growth. At least their huge population will create demand for basic things in good or bad times. More than yellow metal they will consume more food and other basic things in the coming two decades. 

It is very simple. High number of mouths in China is going to create lot of demand for some things. They will have less arable land in the future. They cannot produce everytign locally in the future and they will have to import from other countries. In addition they will have word market for some of their products in the coming decades.

Some of the concerns that I have about China are environmental pollution, credit and property market.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions


----------



## noirua (13 July 2013)

China's June trade falls in new sign economy fading | Business | Seattle News, Weather, Sports, Breaking News | KOMO News
http://www.komonews.com/news/busine...lls-in-new-sign-economy-fading-214913241.html


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## sinner (18 July 2013)

More Pettis, in advance, from Mish

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.in/2013/07/china-urbanization-growth-fallacy.html


> Meanwhile in all the excitement over WMP and SHIBOR we risk losing sight of the fact that, contrary to what a lot of analysts are suggesting, the problem in China is not that there are specific areas of risky lending that need to be controlled. The real problem is that increased economic activity is inextricably tied to unsustainable increases in debt, and this is a system-wide problem. It will prove impossible both to control increasing financial risk and to keep growth even at current levels. Any attempt to crack down on one form of bad lending will only cause another form of bad lending to surge, and if Beijing really wants to control the worsening financial risk it will have to tolerate growth rates of 3-4% or less.




Hello from monsoony India!


----------



## sydboy007 (19 July 2013)

From macrobusines today

China’s most famous ghost city busts

Ordos in inner Mongolia has regularly been cited as the quintessential example of China’s unsustainable construction-led economy.

In 2009, AlJazeera posted an explosive video showcasing Ordos’ ghost apartments and frenetic pace of construction, which exemplified the “build it and they will come” approach that has underpinned the Chinese economy. AlJazeera provided a follow-up in 2011, which was equally revealing.

Then Business Insider posted a slideshow of China’s empty cities, headlined by Ordos.

And in late 2011, a video from NTD Television showed how Ordos’ home prices were crashing, having fallen by almost one-third. Meanwhile, construction had finally ground to a halt, leaving many construction workers unemployed.

Then last year, a video from the Atlantic  followed a group of skaters through Ordos, showing a city that appeared almost completely empty three years after Aljazeera’s first ground-breaking report.

Now it appears the city has gone bust. According to Bloomberg, apartment sales have ground to a halt and a myriad of cranes now stand silent amid half finished developments:

_“In the past few years there was a lot of coal so people came from all over the country,” says Gao Wei, 30, smoking in an office that deals in second-hand construction machinery and had no clients that day. “Now the economy has collapsed, they’ve all gone”…

Fueled by a boom in coal production, Ordos saw a building spree in recent years, with an expanded airport, a sports stadium and the new area of Kangbashi where high-rise apartments surround an artificial lake. Many local residents owned two to three homes each…

Now the local government’s revenue is falling because the property crash has scuppered land sales, while residents no longer have compensation to buy property and make loans… About 70 percent of Dongsheng district’s real estate market was funded by private lending that has now stopped…

When the government sold land over the past few years, it always used the funds for infrastructure construction, Zhang said from the sales office of a new apartment complex with 1,000 units. “Now they don’t have any money.” Meantime, the city’s coal rush has dried up amid sluggish domestic demand, with prices dropping to an almost four-year low.

That hasn’t stopped efforts to keep the boom going…

Some Ordos district governments had to borrow money from companies to pay municipal employees’ salaries…

“Ordos is a warning to other places in terms of how to guide the local economy and in what not to do,” said Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. “The local governments are still not waking up to what they should do in this new environment”…
_
Consider for a moment how much of Australia’s iron ore and coking coal has gone into the construction of such projects, and what will happen to commodity prices when construction across China inevitably slows.


----------



## notting (19 July 2013)

sydboy007 said:


> “The local governments are still not waking up to what they should do in this new environment”…




They are not asleep they are still suckering in the population with the fake media commentary on real estate investment bonanza, and forcing the less able communities like the farmers off their traditional farm land by force selling their land and making them buy apartments with the money.

It usually leaves the ex-farmers and their children enslaved to paying off the rest of the apartment for the rest of their lives.

With no means of making money the family, including the children are used in slave labour and daughters of 10 or older get forced into prostitution if they are good looking enough to pay off the family debts because they have no other way of making money without their land.  Often the family is tricked into signing the mortgage thinking there will be no more to pay.  They are then intimidated into thinking it was their fault and if they dare speak up they will be sent of to reeducation slave labour camps to pay off their debts.  The community will be told they are bad people not paying their debts.

Generally the collateral up front pays off the costs of the apartments so there is not too much debt in reality, as they have to cough up 50% or more upfront. So is no real debts in the first place, just billionare communist party  developers 'building China.'
If the people can't pay they usually go to jail for 3.5 years where all kinds of extortion occurs payment for their moderate as apposed to extreme torture, they can also sell their kidneys and an eye or something like that to help pay if they have good ones.

Oh and it's 'illegal to listen to rumours,' so you can't even complaine to your friends or family about what is happening to you in China. 

There is still lot's of busness being done there.  This is one of the ways the Chinese Communist party is raising people out of poverty!


----------



## CanOz (19 July 2013)

notting said:


> They are not asleep they are still suckering in the population with the fake media commentary on real estate investment bonanza, and forcing the less able communities like the farmers off their traditional farm land by force selling their land and making them buy apartments with the money.
> 
> It usually leaves the ex-farmers and their children enslaved to paying off the rest of the apartment for the rest of their lives.
> 
> ...




Notting, where did you get this information? Please provide links or people's names that were quoted. In my eight years in china I've not come across anything like this, even though I've lived in three cities in three different provinces....but perhaps I'm missing something?? 

CanOz


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## nulla nulla (20 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> Notting, where did you get this information? Please provide links or people's names that were quoted.....
> CanOz




Careful what you say now Notting, CanOz may set the secret police onto you. 

You may be taken from your home in the middle of the night; You may be taken to a secret prison and your family may have no knowledge of where you are; you may be tried for rumourmongering/sedition which crimes may carry the death penalty if you are found guilty; you may not have the right to legal representation; you may not even get to attend your own trial; you may be found guilty and sentenced to death; and you may be kept alive for as long as it takes to harvest your organs for the national organ donation campaign.

Strewth CanOz...you're scaring me.:1zhelp:


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## notting (20 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> Notting, where did you get this information? Please provide links or people's names that were quoted. In my eight years in china I've not come across anything like this, even though I've lived in three cities in three different provinces....but perhaps I'm missing something??
> CanOz



You probably don’t have much to do with the rural communities.
There are countless examples of this kind of thing in China. I have spoken to and *heard first hand accounts* from many people and seen things with my own eyes.  Of course I will not mention names or stuff like that.  I will find a couple of 'general examples.' 
What is more concerning about this is that when people do manage to get footage out of China which is virtually impossible the western news very rarely publishes and even the odd you tube videos that get put up are taken down in a small amount of time or sabotaged with hundreds of videos or stories propagandising the opposite these are strategically designed to taking up room in the search engines so the truth gets buried. 
The classic communist propaganda response to these kinds of findings is:
1. Have you ever been to China?
2. Where is your evidence?
3. We will investigate this matter, as if it's an anomaly(if something is blatantly obviously happening).
4. The Chinese citizens that can go abroad are told - What you read in Western Media is propaganda trying to bring down the Chinese people.(if something does get published.)  So all the expats from China don’t believe what they see in Western Media, - “The enemy.”
5. If someone protests or complains they will be set upon by police in ordinary clothing with rubber hoses, beaten till bloated to twice their body size normally.  If that doesn’t stop the poor person, it will be done again with iron bars.  If that doesn’t work it will be off to re-education camp.

My computer has been hacked and all the stuff I had on China is gone!!  That’s how pervasive they are!
I will just post some things I can get from else where.

Here is a very recent example of Chinese communist party business that got out of control only because it became known to the public, a rare thing.  http://www.iol.co.za/news/world/chinese-mom-wins-labour-camp-appeal-1.1547105 The above article is a watered down load of bull**** designed to report a little but not upset China.  
This is what it's more like http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/08/09/woman-sent-to-labor-camp-in-china-s-latest-abuse-outrage.html 
This is what they do with people daughters. Property that's nothing!!


----------



## notting (20 July 2013)

Now let's try that again.
You sold your daughter into prostitution, didn't you?!
The Chinese Communist party member is a pillar of Chinese society, isn't he?!


Link for Reports on property abuse
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-19894292


----------



## notting (20 July 2013)

> "The forced eviction of people from their homes and farmland without appropriate legal protection and safeguards has become a routine occurrence in China, and represents a gross violation of human rights obligations on an enormous scale," Amnesty said.
> 
> Many cases are "sudden and violent, sometimes resulting in death", harassment and in one instance, someone being buried alive.
> 
> Ms Duckworth said self-immolations caused by evictions were also on the rise. "We documented 41 reports of self-immolations from 2009 to the end of 2012," she said.   - BBC






Amazing Canoz that even a free person like you with all your experience and time in China has never heard about the way the Communist Chinese party enrich themselves off the people and achieve growth and property bubbles.
It's a testiment to the Chinese Communist Party's Propaganda skills silencing and brainwashing abilities on all levels!!!


Link for Reports on property abuse

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-17661224


----------



## notting (20 July 2013)

Chinese officials show this much confidence in the future!!




And if you don't get away or implicate Communist party members, you get death -


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 July 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> Careful what you say now Notting, CanOz may set the secret police onto you.
> 
> You may be taken from your home in the middle of the night; You may be taken to a secret prison and your family may have no knowledge of where you are; you may be tried for rumourmongering/sedition which crimes may carry the death penalty if you are found guilty; you may not have the right to legal representation; you may not even get to attend your own trial; you may be found guilty and sentenced to death;




It's all true.  I've heard it first hand from a Chinese lady who had absolutely no axe to grind.  In fact she was quite accepting of the communist party and their ways.  The Party is so secretive that such news rarely sees the light of day.  She described having to be most careful around middle ranking officials, rather than the upper or lower end officials.  You'll be fine so long as you don't step out of line.  Since the punishment is so harsh, obedience is almost absolute across the population.


----------



## notting (20 July 2013)

Progressive thoughts and beleifs are a  threat to communist party rule by fear, bribary, blackmail etc. - if you want a first hand account of a labour camp for resisting the Chinese Communist Progress machine in your country:


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 July 2013)

From yahoo news.  

A new report from China Labor Watch alleges that workers at Apple's supplier Pegatron are working 11-hour shifts, six days a week, for $1.63 (US$1.50) an hour in order to turn out a less expensive version of the iPhone.
With 20 minutes of each shift unpaid, each worker earns a total of $291 (US$268) a month before overtime ”” less than half the local average of $831 (US$764) and far below the basic living wage necessary to survive in Shanghai, one of China's most expensive cities. As a result, employees must put in long overtime hours.

The New York-based rights group, which sent undercover investigators into three factories and conducted nearly 200 interviews with workers, says it found at least 86 labor rights violations.

Average weekly working hours in the three factories were between 66 hours and 69 hours, a direct violation of China's 49-hour statutory limit, China Labor Watch said. The group claimed that workers were forced to sign forms indicating that their overtime hours were less than the actual levels.

The report also alleges that over 10,000 underage and student workers, from 16 to 20 years of age, do the same work as adult employees, with some students paid lower wages due to schools' internship fees.

Claims 'new to us', says Apple

Apple has been in close contact with the group for several months, yet the report contains "claims that are new to us," and those will be probed immediately, Carolyn Wu, a Beijing-based spokeswoman for Apple, said in a phone interview with Bloomberg.

Apple became the first technology company to join the Washington-based Fair Labor Association last year after criticism by human-rights organisations about conditions at suppliers including Foxconn Technology Group. Pegatron factories "are even worse than those at Foxconn," CLW Executive Director Li Qiang said in a statement today.

"We will investigate these new claims thoroughly, ensure that corrective actions are taken where needed and report any violations of our code of conduct," Ms Wu said. "We will not tolerate deviations from our code."

Cupertino, California-based Apple has conducted 15 audits at Pegatron facilities since 2007, covering more than 130,000 workers making the company's products, Ms Wu said. The most recent survey in June found that Pegatron employees making Apple products worked 46 hours per week on average, she said.

Pegatron will investigate the allegations, President and Chief Executive Officer Jason Cheng said in an e-mailed statement. Pegatron hasn't seen the China Labor Watch report, Pegatron plants in China haven't hired any underage workers, and weekly work hours during the past two to three months have averaged 45-50 hours, Chief Financial Officer Charles Lin said by phone.

Spotlight on labour conditions

Working conditions at Apple's suppliers have come under the spotlight in recent years following a series of suicides in 2010 at Foxconn, which manufactured products for companies such as Apple, HP and Sony.

Scrutiny of labour conditions in developing nations has intensified in the wake of the Rana Plaza garment factory collapse in Bangladesh, which left 1,129 people dead.

Last month, a number of Bangladeshi workers interviewed by the ABC claimed that they had been physically abused and threatened while working in sweatshops used by well-known Australian retailers including Rivers, Coles, Target and Kmart.

Garment production for Australian companies in Bangladesh has increased 1,500 per cent since 2008.

But according to a survey conducted by not-for-profit aid organisation Oxfam, almost 70 per cent of Australians would pay more for their clothes if it meant workers were given an acceptable wage and worked in safe factories.

 With input from Bloomberg and ABC


----------



## CanOz (30 July 2013)

How Apple and its suppliers get away with this is just appalling. We were a supplier to McDonald's. McDonald's has a very strict ethics policy as did we. When they came to do our annual audit they nearly failed us because one of our maintenance guys had worked 8 hours too much in one month during harvest season, the only time we permitted much overtime.

The difference here of course is applying your policies in good faith, to the letter of the law or better.

Apply needs a bit more bad press before they really start to take this seriously.


----------



## notting (30 July 2013)

The free world companies like Apple are using Chinese run factories.  
They are not Apple factories. They just make apple products as well as other products.

It's got nothing to do with Apple it's China and the above factory is luxurious compared to what Chinese companies do to their own workers.   

The Chinese allow and promote the publication of work conditions for free world companies in China as a way of trying to destroy free world companies, put the Chinese off buying free world products and keep the Chinese people in the dark about what happens in the communist run labor camps and companies making Chinese products which are far far worse than the free world company conditions.

The whole Apple thing is a deflection.  As was the Toyota issues, RIO issue etc etc


----------



## CanOz (30 July 2013)

notting said:


> The free world companies like Apple are using Chinese run factories.
> They are not Apple factories. They just make apple products as well as other products.
> 
> It's got nothing to do with Apple it's China and the above factory is luxurious compared to what Chinese companies do to their own workers.
> ...




Most of AAPL's supplier are likely Taiwanese, the Chinese simply can't maintain the quality. In any case they are AAPL's suppliers.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 July 2013)

Strange logic there notting. Pull ya head out - apple are responsible for their supply chain.

You make it sound like it would be fine for apple to use a North Korean gulag to produce iPhones.


----------



## notting (30 July 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Strange logic there notting. Pull ya head out - apple are responsible for their supply chain.
> 
> You make it sound like it would be fine for apple to use a North Korean gulag to produce iPhones.




Not at all.

These are all Chinese run factories.  The Chinese authorities have always been aware of it.  No one in China is innocent that's how the communist thugs keep control.  You can't do business if you obey the law so you have to break it and then they hold that over you and use it when it is convenient.  This is no secret.  They are targeting foreign companies it's just business to them.  Companies like Apple can tell the Chinese thugs running the factories to treat the workers well, that doesn't mean the Chinese will, they profit from cheating Apple and foreign companies as well making more money out of using the slaves regardless of what Apple or tell.  
If it was up to me no one would be allowed to use factories in China or any country that uses their workers like slaves.
That's not going to happen because the west has decided that China would do it any way, would make it even worse for the Chinese people, so relatively it's a compromise.
Most of what you have bought is *made in China* under worse circumstances.  Where's your head?


----------



## CanOz (30 July 2013)

notting said:


> Not at all.
> 
> These are all Chinese run factories.  The Chinese authorities have always been aware of it.  No one in China is innocent that's how the communist thugs keep control.  You can't do business if you obey the law so you have to break it and then they hold that over you and use it when it is convenient.  This is no secret.  They are targeting foreign companies it's just business to them.




This is just biased rubbish and I've had enough. I've lived here for 8 years and while i cannot deny that this stuff goes on here amounst a population of 1.3 billion, its certainly not the norm in the three cities that i have LIVED in. You get your stuff from the internet, you have not lived here.

You have got a vendetta against China, not Russia, North Korea or anyone else that behaves in the ways that you constantly shout about.

Consider yourself warned.


----------



## notting (30 July 2013)

I get my information from victims and genuine news stories if that is wrong to talk about then that's very disappointing and sad.  I think your better than that.
It's up to you.


----------



## saroq (30 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> This is just biased rubbish and I've had enough. I've lived here for 8 years and while i cannot deny that this stuff goes on here amounst a population of 1.3 billion, its certainly not the norm in the three cities that i have LIVED in. You get your stuff from the internet, you have not lived here.
> 
> You have got a vendetta against China, not Russia, North Korea or anyone else that behaves in the ways that you constantly shout about.
> 
> Consider yourself warned.




Allow me to chime in because I also have a long connection with China and have lived there for more than 8 years.  There is a world of difference between living a comfortable expat life in China and life for the people who live there.  While there are hundreds of thousands who have benefited from the opening up of China it still does not come close to supporting the rights and conditions enjoyed by workers in the West.  Nor is it accurate to suggest that a company like Apple doesn't know what's going on in the factories it gets its products from.  To suggest that would be like saying the Southern Plantation owners didn't know what was going on in their fields or how such low labour costs were achieved.


----------



## nulla nulla (30 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> This is just biased rubbish and I've had enough. I've lived here for 8 years and while i cannot deny that this stuff goes on here amounst a population of 1.3 billion, its certainly not the norm in the three cities that i have LIVED in. You get your stuff from the internet, you have not lived here.
> 
> You have got a vendetta against China, not Russia, North Korea or anyone else that behaves in the ways that you constantly shout about.
> 
> Consider yourself warned.




Realy scaring me now Canoz. Twice now you have attacked notting. He may be a ratbag and then again he may be right. But you seem biased yourself. Perhaps you could stand back and be objective about it? After all, right or wrong, we still have freedom of speech & freedom of the press in Australia.


----------



## CanOz (30 July 2013)

saroq said:


> There is a world of difference between living a comfortable expat life in China and life for the people who live there.




My wife and her family are Chinese mate...


----------



## saroq (30 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> My wife and her family are Chinese mate...




Now you're just getting nasty.  By the way my ex-wife and her family are Chinese too Mate!


----------



## CanOz (30 July 2013)

saroq said:


> Now you're just getting nasty.  By the way my ex-wife and her family are Chinese too Mate!





No, i'm not getting nasty at all, but i don't appreciate you assuming that i'm living an insulated expat life oblivious to all that goes on around me. which is what you were assuming.

Now, if you'll excuse me i need to go start a thread and abuse the Russian government about how they hunt down and execute oligarchs.....They really piss me off


----------



## saroq (30 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> No, i'm not getting nasty at all, but i don't appreciate you assuming that i'm living an insulated expat life oblivious to all that goes on around me. which is what you were assuming.
> 
> Now, if you'll excuse me i need to go start a thread and abuse the Russian government about how they hunt down and execute oligarchs.....They really piss me off




And good luck with that.  Let's hope that you can keep your personal bias out of that thread.


----------



## Zedd (30 July 2013)

If I can put my  in:

China is a work in progress, economically and socially. The decision was made in the last civil war to go down their current path of communism. Considering some of the lost efficiencies in our own nation, I still think the jury's out on who's got the right idea and only time will tell. Have a look at the health outcomes in China vs US and then consider the $$$ spent per capita and tell me which government is delivering a better service to it's people. And not to trivialise the abuse, but after the recent Snowden releases, the majority of polls showed US citizens were in favour of giving up more of their rights, for a greater level of personal security.

I think human rights abuses are happening without a doubt. There are too many reports for them all to be false, or propaganda. But there's also a lot of improvement going on, some from internal drivers such as desire for a healthier and better educated population, and some external drivers, such as international companies not wanting to be associated with pseudo slave labour.

International companies certainly do have the opportunity to influence working conditions, as well as product quality and traceability. They're not in business though to solve all the world's problems. 

Through trade, and dialogue, regardless of the form of governance, I think the standard of living in China will continue to rise. At the same time I think it's important that issues of human rights are discussed, and encouraging China to stop any such abuse, whether its systemic or not. But broad generalisations such as "No one in China is innocent that's how the communist thugs keep control" will achieve nothing.


----------



## CanOz (30 July 2013)

saroq said:


> And good luck with that.  Let's hope that you can keep your personal bias out of that thread.




I added my personal bias to balance Nottings view. Add your view for balance if you like, if not then run along.

China is not all bad, mostly...but not all.

Lots of stories about the past, its improving for the majority, slowly.

Thats my view.


----------



## CanOz (30 July 2013)

I knew i sensed that Notting had some kind of strange vendetta against the Chinese....this is where it started....Notting, did you lose some money on Sundance?



> Where's Sinosteel???? As if.
> It's the same company China inc.
> Sometimes China inc makes low ball offers to keep the price up so they put off genuine alternatives, take board positions and then make deals to suit themselves. They also figure no one else will come along with the price up and costs to come, they can increase their holding keep the price up, suck in the share holders with capital raising, having inflated the price so then China inc doesn't have to do the real funding and their happy and off they go with the goodies from the ground to make money out of what they make it into.
> 
> ...






> Expect to see many confused messages coming out.
> Their good at offering underhanded payouts to board members too, one way or another. If the member ever do something they don't like well - Remember a guy called Stern Hu???
> How did they manage to take all Rios computers as part of their investigation!!
> HHmmmm corporate espionage right out in the open. Wheres Rupert? News was quiet on all that given what it was.
> ...






> Maybe you guys should look at RCI to see how Chinese take overs go. When an Indian company was bidding for RCI the Chinese came in and made dummy bids to knock up the Indian one to about .515c which depended on due diligence. The Indians then walked away after due diligence and the the Chinese went dead silent. RCI fell down to .125c!! when the Indians walked away and whilst it was doing that a Chinese director - Wu Pun Yun increased his holding massively to 50.4%holding.
> The Chinese came back after 6 months and made a hostile bid at 25c! They had to raise it to 30c because 25 was against the law!!! to come back so low so soon or something like that. They are now lapping up stocks at that level at present of 30c. RCI has asked it's share holders who hardly exist any more to reject it.
> 
> What will happen to Sundance? Don't know because nothing happens the way you think it will on the market. But, my guess is that, in the absence of a bid from a non Chinese inc company which is highly unlikely, gradual decline amidst sneaky, Chinese accumulation. Then in 6 months it might be worth taking a bite but the Chinese may be able to control through board arm bending and live monkey brain eating parties. So will not bother to do anything more.






> An alternate bidder will have to have very deep pockets after paying 1.5Billion and needing another 3 (+Blowout) Billion for development. Hanlons 18% holding will also be obstructive. To be fair to shareholders who are prepared to wait, SDL should take it's time and not rush into anything.
> India and other developing nations need iron oar too and demand isn't going away soon. Combined financing would be more valuable to share holders over the longer term rather than being subject totally to merciless Chinese.
> Xtrata would be an ideal alternate buyer for SDL. Did Xtrata announce they were not interested?






> You could also look at BMN to get an idea of how Chinese raids go. BMN has a highly conditional offer of 61.5c on it and its trading today at.35c! The will Chinese examine every inch of the company with as much intimidation as possible which will likely go on for months according to the recent board announcement.
> Who knows they may offer 25c after that. I have being buying that recently however so I must think it will happen.
> China loves nuclear things!






> China is more likely to intemperate this in the light of -the way it behaves - which is to play dirty and do anything without conscience.
> 
> So China will think Australia is trying to some how interfere with the negotiations with sovereign motivations. It will make them all the more keen to win these assets.
> So I think the last thing I'm expecting them to do is walk away in protest.
> ...




and on and on...Who is biased?

When did you buy Notting, the top?


----------



## notting (31 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> I knew i sensed that Notting had some kind of strange vendetta against the Chinese....this is where it started....Notting, did you lose some money on Sundance?




No.

I made money out of it!
I was jumping in and out allot, got out on the ups.  When the Chinese were printing in their own lying propaganda media that it was kind of home and hosed I sold.  Then when it was ramped down, i bought again.  Then when Hanlon assured the markets that they were in the final stages of securing finance, I sold.  They always lie.
Then I waited and when Hanlon announced again that they had a number of partners interested, it contradicted the 'final stages' announcement So I sold into that rally.  SDL then said that Hanlons payment of it's first trance to cover take over costs was a sign Hanlon were going to do the deal I new it was not going to happen.  I trashed SDL (not Hanlon) at that moment if you want to bother to look.  

Beside all that.  I am not so pathetic that I would hold that as a grudge.  That would be totally my fault. 
I found that whole thing rather fascinating as you can see when you know the way the Chinese work, you can play them as I did.  Although The Muffin Man really helped me with that post, because until he said that no one was contradicting the story that this was as good a find of iron as any!!!  That was weird. 
That's why I write here because the press are too worried about losing Chinese business to write the realities about China.  This is changing a little at the moment and ever since google got booted out it's easier to get stuff on the real China.  when Google were trying to play along they were curbing allot!

You may also note the comments I was making about China during the final stages of the resources boom whilst others were posting up amazing skyward charts on the resources I was posting charts of the Chinese stock market and talking about what every one else is talking about now!!! Since the US 60 minutes stories on the fake Chinese Apple stores (where the Apple garbage started, which the Chinese retaliated against with protests about working conditions) and the 60 minutes stories on the property bubble.

I have nothing against the Chinese people, I am for them.

I have every thing against the Communist lies, torture, cheating and corruption, occupations, territorial claims.
Every Australian should feel the same.  Just recently they called for an end to the hacking and at the same time hacked into the Reserve bank of Autralia within 36 hours of making that public call for the hacking wars to stop, only after* they *were exposed.!!!
I say it as it is and find it amazing that there is resistance to it.
I don't however want to make your position difficult so am thoughtful of that but Jeez, stay in Canada dude, it could get really ugly there soon.

Further, I have also said that I like the new leader and so far he has done some really good things and there is hope there.  I also said I hope he doesn't get taken down in the revolution if it happens that would be sad.  So I'm not stuck in my ways so to speak.

I call it the way I see it and I know allot about them!!

I have had insight at the highest levels of corporate negotiations with Australian and the Chinese.  They are disgusting what they do to humans to animals and to their own people.  This needs to be  known so you don't lose billions like Tesltra did with Ziggy when I was telling them to not do it!!  If you want to point to a gripe well that's where one small one was.
The rest is just being a decent human being able to look at oneself and say, well at least I didn't cast down my eyes and say nothing!  

That's where I'm coming from.  

Sorry if it's boring.  I have found it useful to trade on so there is relevance for others there too if that's all they care about.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 July 2013)

notting said:


> The rest is just being a decent human being able to look at oneself and say, well at least I didn't cast down my eyes and say nothing!
> 
> That's where I'm coming from.
> 
> Sorry if it's boring. I have found it useful to trade on so there is relevance for others there too if that's all they care about.




Notting you still take part in their economy though don't you?


----------



## notting (31 July 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Notting you still take part in their economy though don't you?




Yes.  

And I'm of the belief that this is better than leaving them closed off to the rest of the world, for the people. Nth Korea is the closed model.
Dealing with them , will hopefully, help them realise that their ways are not only deplorable but not as good for business, which is what they worship.

Noticed this morning that now the Chines are hacking into BMW for pollution!!!
Yeah all the pollution is from these foreign companies.  Nothing to do with communist dictators reckless short term environmental policies made to attract business from the world to line their own pockets at the expense of the people.

The dictators and their connected business cronies  can fly out with all their money to live in the free west. 
They are doing so at quite a pace at the moment.
 The people stay to breath the air of death and drink from the poisoned rivers.


----------



## saroq (31 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> I added my personal bias to balance Nottings view. Add your view for balance if you like, if not then run along.
> 
> China is not all bad, mostly...but not all.
> 
> ...





What part of my comments disagreed with the premise that "China is not all bad"?  My comments were these 1.  That life has improved for hundreds of thousands of Chinese people, but let me add that the figure is without a doubt in the millions.  2. An expat does not know what life is like for many Chinese people.  This is because the expat is not a migrant worker and enjoys a quality of life and treatment that is much higher than many workers in China. Being married to a Chinese woman does not change that.  3. That a company like Apple cannot pretend that it doesn't know how its cheap production cost are being achieved http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-30/hidden-human-cost-of-smart-phones/4854412

It is you who should run along if you cannot respond accurately and civilly to the posts of fellow ASF members.


----------



## CanOz (31 July 2013)

I like to think of myself as trying to see both sides of an argument. Its been those times that i disagree with people so strongly that i wonder why i bother with forums. I tried to present the other side of the argument, which i think Zedd did very well for me (thanks Zedd). I just think people should go and have a look at a country, feel the culture, try to understand the environment on the ground, like Jim Rogers does. Then form a balanced view. Perhaps i didn't present my view as being balanced, if so then that's my fault and i apologize.

I have no further comments on the subject and I'll "run along" now. From now on any comments on China will be in response to direct queries about life here now, or facts that i find regarding the economy.


----------



## sydboy007 (14 August 2013)

interesting graph from FTalphaville

Doesn't bode well for the ghost cities they've built.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 August 2013)

New mouse anyone?

Check out the specs on this baby (from ebay).  #3 is the best.



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Included ultra fast response buttons, special Lightweight metal add in middle of mouse body.

Tracking and slide control with excellent performance.

Came with a 4 level adbestable resolution feature: 800/1600/2400/3200dpi(can be switched easily with the dpi buttom).

 Applicable for entry to advanced users.


----------



## sydboy007 (27 August 2013)

Two reports in Chinese media highlight different aspects of China’s unfolding demographic crunch. The Ministry of Education reported Aug. 21 that more than 13,600 primary schools closed nationwide in 2012. The ministry looked to China’s dramatically shifting demographic profile to explain the widespread closures, noting that between 2011 and 2012 the number of students in primary and secondary schools fell from nearly 150 million to 145 million. It also confirmed that between 2002 and 2012, the number of students enrolled in primary schools dropped by nearly 20 percent. The ministry’s report comes one day after an article in People’s Daily, the government newspaper, warned of China’s impending social security crisis as the number of elderly is expected to rise from 194 million in 2012 to 300 million by 2025.

Talk about demographic headwinds.


----------



## sydboy007 (27 August 2013)

good video of the debt bubbling near ready to burst


http://video.ft.com/v/2629849670001


----------



## sydboy007 (17 September 2013)

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/9/17/china/china-cracks-down-foreign-business

yet they still have the gawl to have hissy fits over us taking a hard look at their investments here.

I say lets just apply the same standards China applies to us on their home turf and see how that goes down


----------



## stockGURU (9 November 2013)

> *China October Industrial Output Growth Tops Estimates at 10.3%*
> _By Bloomberg News  |  November 09, 2013_
> 
> China’s industrial output rose 10.3 percent in October from a year earlier and retail sales gained 13.3 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its website today.
> ...




More: http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...put-growth-tops-estimates-at-10-dot-3-percent

Is Chinese economic growth back on the boil? How will this affect commodity prices?


----------



## CanOz (22 June 2014)

A view from my newly leased apartment in Harbin, China...tonight...


----------



## sydboy007 (23 June 2014)

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-06-19/why-living-in-beijing-could-ruin-your-life

The World Health Organization and other public health entities use a measure dubbed “health-adjusted life expectancy” -- or HALE -- to judge how much of an average lifespan will be free of disease, disability, and other impediments to normal, healthy functioning. For developed countries, the gap between HALE and traditional life expectancy is usually around eight to 12 years, according to a 2012 study published in the Lancet, reflecting access to high-quality, life-extending health care. So, in 2010 Japanese men could expect a HALE of 70.6, compared to life expectancy of 79.3, and Japanese women could expect a HALE of 75.5 years, and traditional life expectancy of 85.9 years.

The true size of the gap, however, was shocking. While life expectancies have continued to grow, HALE numbers have gone backward. According to a summary published to the Beijing CDC’s website, the data showed that an 18-year-old male Beijinger now has a life expectancy of 80 years, and a shockingly low HALE of 61.4. Far worse, and almost defying believability, an 18-year-old female Beijinger has a life expectancy of 84, and a HALE of 56.06. In other words, she should expect to spend 28 years -- or roughly 41 percent of her remaining life -- in ill health.


----------



## DB008 (19 May 2015)

*It Only Took Four Months For China To Achieve A Jaw-Dropping Reduction In Carbon Emissions​*


> China is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, so small decreases in its emissions seem like monumental feats when compared to other countries. According to a new analysis, in the first four months of 2015, China’s coal use fell almost 8 percent compared to the same period last year ”” a reduction in emissions that’s approximately equal to the total carbon dioxide emissions of the U.K. over the same period.
> 
> The analysis, published by Greenpeace and Energydesk China, reviewed data from a number of sources, including China’s industrial output, and found that China had reduced its coal output by 6.1 percent in the first four months of 2015. The research team calculated that the drop in coal use translates into a nearly 5 percent drop in domestic CO2 emissions.






> In 2014, China cut domestic consumption of coal by 2.9 percent, the first drop in more than a decade, with coal production also falling 2.5 percent. China’s carbon emissions also fell last year for the first time in over a decade, dropping 2 percent in 2014 compared to 2013.
> 
> While China is rapidly pursuing clean energy technology ”” with solar growth that dwarfs any other country ”” and also closing hundreds of coal plants in response to domestic air pollution issues and a shifting fossil fuel landscape, the real reason for the dramatic fall in emissions is likely the country’s sluggish economy. So far in 2015, China’s economy is growing slower than the government’s desired 7 percent pace ”” a trajectory that puts it on course to have its weakest economic year in a quarter of a century.
> 
> ...




http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/15/3659355/china-coal-use-drops/​


----------



## sinner (7 July 2015)

sinner said:


> I don't have a horse in the race either way (yet), except for through whichever underlying stocks in various indices I hold which may have China exposure.
> 
> One valuation metric which is useful for applying across countries is the "Total Market Cap / GNP" ratio, which I couldn't get a hold of, but the World Bank has historical data for TMC/GDP, which is a close enough proxy I guess (they released the 2012 datapoint EOFY, a bonus for us). A quick chart:
> 
> ...




The magic of valuations. Above post from July 2013.




So is China in a stock bubble? Or was the spike higher simply bringing it in line with valuations for indices across the world, from a very very cheap starting point? 

I approximate the China market cap today at ~$10 trillion and the GDP at ~$9 trillion (this is a complete back of the napkin approximation). Using the same formula as above (2% growth, 2% yield) we are looking at a forecast 10Y nominal return of -1%/annum.

At the time, everyone was expecting China to crash further.

Greek, Russian, Mining stocks, anyone?


----------



## satanoperca (7 July 2015)

sinner said:


> So is China in a stock bubble? Or was the spike higher simply bringing it in line with valuations for indices across the world, from a very very cheap starting point?




That depends Sinner, if the valuations of other indices around the world are fair value or over valued, it is all relative.

Cheero


----------



## sinner (7 July 2015)

satanoperca said:


> That depends Sinner, if the valuations of other indices around the world are fair value or over valued, it is all relative.
> 
> Cheero




I think you will find that regardless of whether the average country index is over or undervalued, you will find that over time both undervalued and overvalued indices will converge towards the average.


----------



## sydboy007 (4 September 2015)

Well worth a read.  I find Pettis to be easy reading

http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/09/if-...f-chinas-balance-sheet-we-understand-neither/


----------



## orr (28 September 2015)

This link is to the China Daily announcing the lay off in the next three months of 100,000 coal workers from Chinas largest coal miner. Keep in mind Aust total direct coal employees approx 40,000, for the US sub 80,000 heading to 70, total; hardly apples v apples '_but'_... And China is heading into winter, their all used to just putting on another jumper.

http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-09/26/content_21987803.htm


----------



## sptrawler (28 September 2015)

orr said:


> This link is to the China Daily announcing the lay off in the next three months of 100,000 coal workers from Chinas largest coal miner. Keep in mind Aust total direct coal employees approx 40,000, for the US sub 80,000 heading to 70, total; hardly apples v apples '_but'_... And China is heading into winter, their all used to just putting on another jumper.
> 
> http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-09/26/content_21987803.htm




China has made a step move, to reduce support for SOE, this is to try and increase efficiencies. 

The idea, is to slowly withdraw the bottomless pit of money, propping up inefficient State Owned Enterprises.

Apparently with the mass industrialisation, managers weren't really required to improve work practices or modernise proceedures and equipment.

The Government, is moving on to the next stage, competition to drive modernisation. Well that's my understanding of it.


----------



## orr (28 September 2015)

sptrawler said:


> improve work practices or modernise proceedures and equipment.
> 
> The Government, is moving on to the next stage, competition to drive modernisation. Well that's my understanding of it.






Undoubtably that's one take on it... 
When i'm looking at the tea leaves watching Xi Jinping tripping off to the US announcing an emissions trading scheme, the Paris meeting coming, up and discussing who knows what else, knowing the PRC leaders are by a majority trained engineers and every engineer knows that if you put more heat into something than gets out it gets hotter. And in the time it's taken you to read this the planet has accumulated about three Hiroshima bombs worth of heat. And Shanghai, a city of thirty-million people sits on average about five metres above sea level. Just how many of Chinas coal fired plants are designed to be retrofitted  for nuclear? Again looking at the tea leaves; Chinas build of a forth generation nuclear reactor and matching that with your mention of '_modernisation of procedures'_.
At this point I have trouble shaking the belief that there's not Gov planning in, at least, this aspect of modernisation.


----------



## sptrawler (28 September 2015)

orr said:


> Undoubtably that's one take on it...
> When i'm looking at the tea leaves watching Xi Jinping tripping off to the US announcing an emissions trading scheme, the Paris meeting coming, up and discussing who knows what else, knowing the PRC leaders are by a majority trained engineers and every engineer knows that if you put more heat into something than gets out it gets hotter. And in the time it's taken you to read this the planet has accumulated about three Hiroshima bombs worth of heat. And Shanghai, a city of thirty-million people sits on average about five metres above sea level. Just how many of Chinas coal fired plants are designed to be retrofitted  for nuclear? Again looking at the tea leaves; Chinas build of a forth generation nuclear reactor and matching that with your mention of '_modernisation of procedures'_.
> At this point I have trouble shaking the belief that there's not Gov planning in, at least, this aspect of modernisation.




The one thing you know with China, there is Government planning in every aspect, absolutely every aspect.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 September 2019)

I bet no one saw this coming.  Unbelievable move by China to withdraw the extradition bill.  I'm guessing they will continue to hunt down those who speak out against communism and kidnap/imprison them illegally.  And threaten their families with same, as they have done in the past. They know that no one will ever challenge them except Trump, and even he is powerless against such clandestine moves on their own territory.  

For the moment... bullish.  Hang Seng up 3.9%.


----------



## nulla nulla (15 September 2019)

Just be careful what you say about Gladys Liu. Even Prime Minister Morrison is toeing the party line. Not sure which party though. Oops gotta go, someone's at the door.


----------



## Tyler Durden (9 October 2019)

Has anyone here heard of Guo Wengui? He makes some rather extraordinary claims about China and their economy. Just wondering if people here think there's any truth to it?


----------



## Knobby22 (29 November 2020)

Excellent analytical article below. The penny has finally dropped for this government. Being the USA's deputy and lecturing the Chinese on behaviour when they are a new main power is dumb, dumb, dumb.

Their attitude is that we need to treat them with respect....and fear.

We are now in a poor position due to some very average decisions.

In my view, the Western nations and South East Asian nations needs to act as one. This means working together with the UN and maximum diplomacy.

Morrison and his top diplomat have sketched out Australia's future.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-29/morrisons-vision-australia-changing-the-order-china/12926904


----------



## SyBoo (29 November 2020)

China's $2b coal deal with Indonesia may hit Australia, East Asia News & Top Stories - The Straits Times

China blocked Australian coal because it “failed to meet environmental standards”, and yet at the same time there prepared to let more Indonesian coal (a lower quality coal) through their ports.

Wait! The penny just dropped for me.


----------



## sptrawler (29 November 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Excellent analytical article below. The penny has finally dropped for this government. Being the USA's deputy and lecturing the Chinese on behaviour when they are a new main power is dumb, dumb, dumb.
> 
> Their attitude is that we need to treat them with respect....and fear.
> 
> ...



Great article I think the comment Abbott made nailed it for Australia.
_Our strategy has been caught between what former prime minister Tony Abbott once described as a mixture of "fear and greed_.

That has and still is holding both of our political parties by the throat, we need China's money, but we don't want them to own us and change the Australian way.
Well it is very hard to have your cake and eat it, they should have thought about this in the 1970's and 80's, when they went down this track.


----------



## againsthegrain (29 November 2020)

SyBoo said:


> China's $2b coal deal with Indonesia may hit Australia, East Asia News & Top Stories - The Straits Times
> 
> China blocked Australian coal because it “failed to meet environmental standards”, and yet at the same time there prepared to let more Indonesian coal (a lower quality coal) through their ports.
> 
> Wait! The penny just dropped for me.




China has environmental standards, what a joke


----------



## Knobby22 (31 December 2020)

I have reopened this thread as it doesn't have an emotive heading and I really just want to look at this from an economic framework.

The USA will hit China hard during the next few years. The USA will act in concert with other powers to damage China if it steps too much out of line. The removal of the unilateralist trade approach that has failed so miserably will lead to a collective hardening of resolve in the USA and hopefully from the West. The new trade leader is smart, speaks Chinese and she has been successful previously by using smart collective actions with like minded countries.

However, there are powerful interests from Apple down that have much to lose if China is limited in manufacturing and many startups rely on Chinese money.

We are at a juncture and I am unsure which way the wave will break.


----------



## qldfrog (31 December 2020)

Add the fact the Reset taking place is an economic no future zone leading to potentially a quick economic disaster.
was called communism in different time: State control of theeconomy, same outcome regardless of effort/abilities etc

So where will the funding come? if not from China? I so believe Bidden will be China's best friend as he will need the cash.
we will see renewed anti russian (the US liberal hate mongering) in the US, while China will be conveniently forgotten.
We always need one enemy, usually a weak one.
So China uberall withing 5y however bad their demographics are, it will be done faster ...
And worse, aging will be a good reason for the CCP to push ahead as fast as possible.
Ultimately, China number one, enslaved big tech to the eir master, west populace subservient to the new masters swapping historic monuments, farms, lands and assets ,gold and family jewelry against cheap yuan funding of deficits, universal incomes and $2 gadgets.
We will quickly see how right or wrong I am with the democrats attitude against China, 6 months on and we will know


----------



## rederob (31 December 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> I have reopened this thread as it doesn't have an emotive heading and I really just want to look at this from an economic framework.
> 
> The USA will hit China hard during the next few years. The USA will act in concert with other powers to damage China if it steps too much out of line. The removal of the unilateralist trade approach that has failed so miserably will lead to a collective hardening of resolve in the USA and hopefully from the West. The new trade leader is smart, speaks Chinese and she has been successful previously by using smart collective actions with like minded countries.
> 
> ...




Aside from China's semiconductor chip making capacity which lags Western nations by at least a decade, China is unlikely to be significantly damaged by the West's attempts to "isolate" it.
China's Belt & Road initiative is providing it with a means for all its future raw materials needs, while at the same time establishing new trading partners, mostly in the developing world. The West seems oblivious to the B&R model's strength, which places ownership of Chinese sponsored infrastructure projects in the hands of the nation itself, rather than in the hands of off-shore corporations, which is the capitalist model.
The maths is simple: excluding the West and India, China has a market potential of over 4 billion.
KPMG sees key national economic changes to 2050 such that:


With misguided support from the USA, Australia has been poking the bear for a number of years, and is now pretending it did nothing wrong: In the inimitable words of Trump, "it's China." 
Not that our media would ever tell you, but Australia's comments regarding Hong Kong's National Security laws represent direct meddling in another nation's sovereignty.
China is as perfect as the USA, or Australia, except it is *not *a *democracy*.
If we cannot get our heads around what China is, and why, then the juggernaut that insulated Australia from the worst effects of the GFC can just as easily throw even bigger spanners into our resource projects.
It's galling for us to think our government has no idea at all about how to resolve the many impasses we are reading about in the media. 
Have we have elected officials who are incompetent on China matters, unless we are agreeing with America?


----------



## sptrawler (31 December 2020)

Yes as one of our P.M's said, you have to watch China, or they will Rat f#@ck you, our history with China is indeed colourful.
To say the least.
It will take some very careful back filling, to repair our relationship and some long term planning to reduce our dependence.
We got ourselves into this position, by outsourcing our manufacturing to cheap labour countries, it will take a lot of clever manoeuvring, to reverse or even stall the trend.


----------



## Austwide (31 December 2020)

I watched a TV shown on a company relocating to China.
The company said wages were not the driver (believe or not) but the availability of parts at their finger tips.


----------



## rederob (2 January 2021)

2021 marks the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China.
It remains one of the few nations to continue with formalised nation-building plans, with it's 14th 5-year plan to come into play this March.
Introducing the new year, Xi Jinping's speech was relatively subdued given covid-19's lingering impacts.
Nevertheless, economic indicators suggest China will have grown by about 2% last year and could experience up to 9% growth in 2021.
An important outcome of China's rebound is the likelihood that China will supplant the USA as the world's largest economy before the end of this decade, according to CEBR's WELT.   
Some 30 years ago Paul Keating understood that Australia's future was going to be significantly tied to developments in Asia, while today it appears our government could do with some Economics 101 and a map of the world.


----------



## sptrawler (2 January 2021)

Austwide said:


> I watched a TV shown on a company relocating to China.
> The company said wages were not the driver (believe or not) but the availability of parts at their finger tips.



That may well be the case, now. I'm sure it wasn't the main driver in the 1980's and 1990's when companies were relocating.


----------



## rederob (5 February 2021)

The hypocrisy of the West towards China is getting more farcical by the day.
Ofcom has removed CGTV from UK airwaves as it cannot comply with the requirement that it have no communist affiliation.  
More amusing are the other pretexts from Ofcom, one being how CGTN appeared biased regarding coverage of the Hong Kong riots.  I read extensive coverage of these riots and never once saw Western media show any balance of their coverage.  Worse, apart from an excellent ABC article, they completely failed to note that the Hong Kong legislature had not enacted necessary provisions stemming from the 1997 handover from Britain, ie. the HKSAR had failed in its obligation to enact its own national security law and actually was relying on assistance from mainland China to suppress the 2019/20 riots.
Meanwhile the USA literally tests the waters regularly by sending its warships through the narrow straits between China and Taiwan, and Biden has now continued the theme.  And then the USA accuses China of maintaining an aggressive international stance.  Interestingly, Morrison is happy to also have Australian warships patrol the South China Sea with the USA while it struggles to gain any traction on trade concerns.  If anything constituted "stupid" from a diplomatic perspective, then Morrison has nailed it.  Why are the USA and Australia doing this?  Well, it's "to build partnerships that foster maritime security, *promote stability* and prevent conflict."  As I said, at the outset, the hypocrisy is farcical.

And on the topic of farcical, let's end with Fox:


----------



## moXJO (5 February 2021)

Yeah Rob, you forgot to mention China salami slicing in India, Myanmar and surrounding nations. Its aggressive behaviour in stealing fishing waters all the way to Indonesia. Deletion of Mongolias history. Dark fishing wiping out stocks that have now invaded our waters.

The list just keeps going.
But tell me how "hard done" by the west they are.


----------



## moXJO (5 February 2021)

The one thing that I agree on is that Australia is stupid getting in bed with the US.


----------



## rederob (5 February 2021)

moXJO said:


> Yeah Rob, you forgot to mention China salami slicing in India, Myanmar and surrounding nations. Its aggressive behaviour in stealing fishing waters all the way to Indonesia. Deletion of Mongolias history. Dark fishing wiping out stocks that have now invaded our waters.
> 
> The list just keeps going.
> But tell me how "hard done" by the west they are.



You should try to add some knowledge to your posts.
International borders remain problematic across the world to this day - just look at the Middle East as an example, or Russia's attempts to claw back its former territories.  Taking Tibet, as an example wrt China, when it initially sought help from the international community in its quest for self rule, Tibet got no help from the USA or UK - both powerhouse nations of the day.
WRT fishing, it's open slather in international waters beyond exclusive economic zones.
WRT "deleting history," Australia's record regarding massacres of aboriginals exists almost exclusively in archives, to the point that PM Howard was completely ignorant until brought up to speed.  In any case, China can't hold a candle to Japan in terms of forgetting its regrettable history.

On topic proper, what is at issue is the West's continuing demonisation of China, for what gain?
If the West thinks it can stop China from being the world's most economically powerful nation, then it's delusional.
If the West want's to help itself during "transition," then it needs to get smart and enter into business partnerships on an increasing basis. Such partnerships need to develop mutual linkages rather than one way flows, such as stopping  Australia from being merely a de facto minesite for China.


----------



## finicky (5 February 2021)

You'd make a good PLA social media troll rederob. Many of us are sick of liberal guilt trips being laid on us for what the ill effects of settlement on war-like indigenes generations ago - to shut people up about existential threats today. The bs about 'demonisation' - China is being run by thieves, thugs and murderers who lie like they breathe.


----------



## rederob (5 February 2021)

finicky said:


> You'd make a good PLA social media troll rederob. Many of us are sick of liberal guilt trips being laid on us for what the ill effects of settlement on war-like indigenes generations ago - to shut people up about existential threats today. The bs about 'demonisation' - China is being run by thieves, thugs and murderers who lie like they breathe.



China is a run via a meritocracy.
If you want to make comments that are sensible, back them up.
Your so called "_thieves, thugs and murderers_" have now sent thousands of medical workers to poorer nations to assist with covid mitigation. They have also landed vaccines in about a dozen countries and presently either have or are negotiating with 27 countries on vaccine supply. What is our record?
What is the USA's record?
What is Europe's record?
If the West wants to win the hearts and minds of nations to foster democracies, they are doing themselves no favours.
Moreover, during the past year China has barely slowed down its B&R initiatives, so more and more developing nations are looking to China rather than the West.
Next door, the next most populous nation, India, is no friend of China.  However, India needs to tread carefully as the impending development of a large scale hydroelectric dam on the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo River could create major downstream issues for the sacred Brahmaputra (the project could deliver up to 3 times the generation capacity of the Three Gorges Dam).


I am agnostic on China's politics, but not on its economics.  China has transparent plans for its future and why Australia isn't trying to see how it can reap some mutual benefits going forward is somewhat baffling.


----------



## againsthegrain (5 February 2021)

rederob said:


> China is a run via a meritocracy.
> If you want to make comments that are sensible, back them up.
> Your so called "_thieves, thugs and murderers_" have now sent thousands of medical workers to poorer nations to assist with covid mitigation. They have also landed vaccines in about a dozen countries and presently either have or are negotiating with 27 countries on vaccine supply. What is our record?
> What is the USA's record?
> ...




- The usual soap in the eyes, It is a fact china sent faulty equipment and many European countries sent them back

- chinese citizens backed by chinese organisations were organising the hoarding and sending of masks etc back to china,  as happened in Australia and we were short.

- china never extends a hand without expecting something back.  Where ever the chinese help was sent will now be under pressure to do "better" deals with china

give with one hand take back with 2


----------



## rederob (5 February 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> - The usual soap in the eyes, It is a fact china sent faulty equipment and many European countries sent them back
> 
> - chinese citizens backed by chinese organisations were organising the hoarding and sending of masks etc back to china,  as happened in Australia and we were short.
> 
> ...



The fact is that *China - the government - *never sent the equipment you are talking about.  Nations bypassed Chinese authorities and did direct business with unapproved suppliers.
Your point about masks is an irrelevance.  I have been using hand-made cloth masks for yonks.
Although it is a fact that Australia fluffed pandemic planning 101 and failed to ensure it was prepared with adequate PPE.

As to China making inroads to other nations, yes, I am sure they will be hopeful that they get ongoing business.  After all, that is exactly what the B&R initiative set out to achieve.
Do I need to reiterate what is happening so that you understand it?
Which leaves us to wonder exactly what is it that we now need to do to see if we can get ahead of the game instead of acting like third reserves.


----------



## againsthegrain (6 February 2021)

rederob said:


> The fact is that *China - the government - *never sent the equipment you are talking about.  Nations bypassed Chinese authorities and did direct business with unapproved suppliers.
> Your point about masks is an irrelevance.  I have been using hand-made cloth masks for yonks.
> Although it is a fact that Australia fluffed pandemic planning 101 and failed to ensure it was prepared with adequate PPE.
> 
> ...




You can try to spin it whatever way you want,  because ccp are master influencers of the weak minds, like a cult. 

Much like posting doctored images in Twitter that are obviously fake then claiming its a "artists interpretation of real events"  with that kind of logic anything can be explained and shown to your own liking. 

Not offering a apology, not admiting your wrong is just proof of the madness, any line of sane discussion or logic is forlorn


----------



## rederob (6 February 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> You can try to spin it whatever way you want,  because ccp are master influencers of the weak minds, like a cult.
> 
> Much like posting doctored images in Twitter that are obviously fake then claiming its a "artists interpretation of real events"  with that kind of logic anything can be explained and shown to your own liking.
> 
> Not offering a apology, not admiting your wrong is just proof of the madness and no line of sane discussion or logic



Try posting other than personal opinions, and perhaps focus on the points of contention.
Who is Australia's largest trading partner?
Why hasn't an Australian Prime Minister visited China since September 2106?
What is Australia doing to secure longer term advantages for Australia/Australian businesses?

We are often called the "lucky country."
What was that "luck" due to during and post GFC?

In normal times we would have expected our government to have been pleased with a record trade surplus in 2020, and be singing its praises.  I found very little news about it except for a suggestion it was significantly due to lesser imports:



*However, it was apparent that resources sustained the strongest outcome:*


*And it was even more apparent where that demand came from:*


(data updated to 28 January 2021)

The economic data tells Australia a compelling story: we are heavily tied to Asia.
That does not mean we foresake historical allegiances.  But it does suggest we act more strategically than we have in recent years.


----------



## againsthegrain (6 February 2021)

rederob said:


> Try posting other than personal opinions, and perhaps focus on the points of contention.
> Who is Australia's largest trading partner?
> Why hasn't an Australian Prime Minister visited China since September 2106?
> What is Australia doing to secure longer term advantages for Australia/Australian businesses?
> ...




This is going nowhere, typical whataboutism


----------



## rederob (6 February 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> This is going nowhere, typical whataboutism



You have indulged in baseless opinion, so do you have more to offer in relation to the many issues I have raised?
If you do not, then maybe think about contributing elsewhere as even your point on *whataboutism *suggests you do not actually know what the term means.


----------



## finicky (6 February 2021)

Yeah let's just leave the field to Beijing bob the super intelligent fifth columnist.


----------



## rederob (6 February 2021)

finicky said:


> Yeah let's just leave the field to Beijing bob the super intelligent fifth columnist.



You, @moXJO and @againsthegrain have not made a single meaningful comment, yet for over a decade China has been largely responsible for Australia's relatively strong position amongst Western nations.
Moreover, it's China's dependence on our mineral resources (excluding thermal coal) that helps our economy.

What exactly is Australia doing to transition away from such a dependence?
Some questions our government fails us on relate to how we either derive a mutual benefit from our present trading relationship beyond the current account, or how we can tap into China's new 5-year plan. 
The alternative position seems to be one that Morrison is pursuing.  That is, let China come to us, and we can talk, presumably as "equals."
However, apart from our natural resources being in demand, Australia is otherwise as influential (read *important*) as one of China's smaller Provinces.  In other words, we are a small blip on China's radar, unless China is given a good reason to believe otherwise.


----------



## rederob (14 April 2021)

The driving force of our economy - *CHINA* *(not America) *- has shifted into the next gear.


----------



## finicky (14 April 2021)

The next gear for the totalitarian 'Peoples Republic' will be unequivocal war instead of just unending offensiveness and lies.


----------



## Clansman (14 April 2021)

finicky said:


> The next gear for the totalitarian 'Peoples Republic' will be unequivocal war instead of just unending offensiveness and lies.




In an ideal world yes, then 3rd and 4th gear would be retreat and then surrender.
However China is just smart enough to know that it isn't smart enough.
So they will maintain the status quo and continue to defer to unending offensiveness and lies. Huff and puff.


----------



## rederob (14 April 2021)

finicky said:


> The next gear for the totalitarian 'Peoples Republic' will be unequivocal war instead of just unending offensiveness and lies.



And the basis for you and the already warned @Clansman saying for this is?


----------



## againsthegrain (14 April 2021)

Clansman said:


> In an ideal world yes, then 3rd and 4th gear would be retreat and then surrender.
> However China is just smart enough to know that it isn't smart enough.
> So they will maintain the status quo and continue to defer to unending offensiveness and lies. Huff and puff.




Nothing reliable has ever come out of china,  including their threats and scare campaigns which are full of holes like old jocks


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> Nothing reliable has ever come out of china,  including their threats and scare campaigns which are full of holes like old jocks



I don’t know about that, I have a microwave that is turning 20 years old this year, still works great, Hahaha.


----------



## martaart077 (14 April 2021)

rederob said:


> The driving force of our economy - *CHINA* *(not America) *- has shifted into the next gear.



Vote with u feet and go (back) to China u hypocrite. 

A real positive to come out of this pandamic is an overall awareness by the general Australian population of the pervasive and negative influences of China on our Australian way of life. 
Witness Andrew Forrest's discraceful display last year in hijacking the Health Ministers press conference with his Chinese mates. 
To be sure, a stunt like that in China  would have resulted in imprisonment or death penalty.


----------



## rederob (14 April 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> Nothing reliable has ever come out of china,  including their threats and scare campaigns which are full of holes like old jocks



Why are you posting if you have nothing but nonsense to offer.
Your standard of living has more to do with China than any other country.
Our markets are more sensitive to what is happening in China than any other nation.


----------



## rederob (14 April 2021)

martaart077 said:


> Vote with u feet and go (back) to China u hypocrite.
> 
> A real positive to come out of this pandamic is an overall awareness by the general Australian population of the pervasive and negative influences of China on our Australian way of life.
> Witness Andrew Forrest's discraceful display last year in hijacking the Health Ministers press conference with his Chinese mates.
> To be sure, a stunt like that in China  would have resulted in imprisonment or death penalty.



Really?
All you seem to show is bile.
Oh, and Twiggy snaggled us 10 million covid test kits from China because the commonwealth's incompetence left us short.  Yes, that was disgraceful!


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2021)

martaart077 said:


> Vote with u feet and go (back) to China u hypocrite.
> 
> A real positive to come out of this pandamic is an overall awareness by the general Australian population of the pervasive and negative influences of China on our Australian way of life.
> Witness Andrew Forrest's discraceful display last year in hijacking the Health Ministers press conference with his Chinese mates.
> To be sure, a stunt like that in China  would have resulted in imprisonment or death penalty.




No, the health minister hijacked Andrew Forrests press conference, Andrew Forrest had already organised that press conference, and the health minister asked if he could piggy back onto it, and Andrew Forrest agreed to allow the health minister to speak.

But, I understand that haters are going to hate, and people will twist things to what ever way they want to see them.

Andrew did not have to allow the health minister to speak, he could have told the health minister to go and organise his own press conference but he didn’t, he did the right thing and allowed the health minister to speak, which unfortunately back fired because it opened him up to idiots like you saying he high jacked his own press confrence.


----------



## finicky (14 April 2021)

rederob said:


> And the basis for you and the already warned @Clansman saying for this is?



Mate, you just want an opportunity to dump your prepared PRC propaganda file on us like last time. Then we're supposed to get immured in tit for tat trench warfare with a fifth columnist when we could be browsing a pr0n site or youtube instead. F#*-k you, we know when fish stinks whatever the vendor says, lol, 🇳🇿


----------



## Clansman (14 April 2021)

rederob said:


> And the basis for you and the already warned @Clansman saying for this is?




About time you started posting some content. Your posts remind me of a chinese submarine... too many holes. That's why they sink in the dock. As do your posts. Put some fabric in your posts instead of fabrication.


----------



## Joe Blow (14 April 2021)

I really don't want to see this thread get personal. Whatever someone believes, there is no excuse for insulting or attacking them personally. Attack the beliefs and/or opinions by all means, but take the high road and play the ball, not the man (or woman).

Debate and discuss the issues in good faith please. Otherwise, we all know how this thread is going to turn out. And I'd rather not go there.


----------



## Humid (14 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> No, the health minister hijacked Andrew Forrests press conference, Andrew Forrest had already organised that press conference, and the health minister asked if he could piggy back onto it, and Andrew Forrest agreed to allow the health minister to speak.
> 
> But, I understand that haters are going to hate, and people will twist things to what ever way they want to see them.
> 
> Andrew did not have to allow the health minister to speak, he could have told the health minister to go and organise his own press conference but he didn’t, he did the right thing and allowed the health minister to speak, which unfortunately back fired because it opened him up to idiots like you saying he high jacked his own press confrence.



And when he did it in Perth?


----------



## finicky (14 April 2021)

Ok, heard that, apology


----------



## rederob (14 April 2021)

finicky said:


> Mate, you just want an opportunity to dump your prepared PRC propaganda file on us like last time. Then we're supposed to get immired in tit for tat trench warfare with a fifth columnist when we could be browsing a pr0n site or youtube instead. F#*-k you, we know when fish stinks whatever the vendor says, lol, 🇳🇿



You don't actually offer anything - as per this post from you - while I am presenting economic data relevant to our business decisions.
Aside from China's clear effect on our markets, they influence our standard of living, not just through products that are made more cheaply, but because of royalties and tax inflows from companies with China as their principal customer.
This thread should be loaded with matters that affect trading and investment rather than the forum's focus on America that pervades the thinking of many.


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2021)

I can tell you that my FMG dividends certainly improve my life and the life of everyone working in the businesses in which I spend them so thank you China.

China indirectly supports so much government and private spending in Australia.


----------



## rederob (14 April 2021)

Clansman said:


> About time you started posting some content. Your posts remind me of a chinese submarine... too many holes. That's why they sink in the dock. As do your posts. Put some fabric in your posts instead of fabrication.



I have posted 23 links supporting the factual basis of my posts in this thread since 31December 2020, plus included charts and other supporting material.
All you have done is make the comments we typically see from trolls.
As the RBA notes China has a profound effect on our economy.  Despite China's dominance in many sectors, capital inflows remain meagre, although that's seldom the picture being spun in the media.  China gets more bang for their buck buying into lesser developed markets for their non-mineral commodity supply chains.


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2021)

Humid said:


> And when he did it in Perth?



I am unsure of the location, I am talking about the one when Greg Hunt asked him if he could join in the press conference, and then the media flipped out saying Andrew hijacked Greg’s press conference.

which one are you talking about?


----------



## rederob (14 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> I am unsure of the location, I am talking about the one when Greg Hunt asked him if he could join in the press conference, and then the media flipped out saying Andrew hijacked Greg’s press conference.
> 
> which one are you talking about?



Watch:


Hunt was so childish!


----------



## martaart077 (14 April 2021)

ABC have been well and truly discredited as being a mouth piece for the left and woke. 
Their so called news reports carry no weight. 

Vote with u feet. Go to China. You will love it there. Or maybe u escaped from there. 
Not everything is about money.


----------



## rederob (14 April 2021)

martaart077 said:


> ABC have been well and truly discredited as being a mouth piece for the left and woke.
> Their so called news reports carry no weight.
> 
> Vote with u feet. Go to China. You will love it there. Or maybe u escaped from there.
> Not everything is about money.



I suggest you read post #187


----------



## martaart077 (14 April 2021)

@Value Collector​Don't let the truth stand in the way of u propaganda nonsense
Thumbs up Red
​Greg Hunt blindsided as Chinese consul-general crashes press conference​
Smh

By Eryk Bagshaw, Anthony Galloway and Darren Gray​Updated April 29, 2020 — 6.53pmfirst published at 4.29pm








Billionaire miner Andrew Forrest has been accused of ambushing the Australian government after he parachuted one of China’s top diplomats into an official event, blindsiding Health Minister Greg Hunt.
Mr Forrest, the Fortescue chairman, surprised Mr Hunt by inviting China’s consul-general for Victoria Zhou Long to speak alongside him on Wednesday after he secured 10 million coronavirus tests from China, a 20-fold increase in Australia’s testing capacity.


----------



## Humid (14 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> I am unsure of the location, I am talking about the one when Greg Hunt asked him if he could join in the press conference, and then the media flipped out saying Andrew hijacked Greg’s press conference.
> 
> which one are you talking about?


----------



## againsthegrain (14 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> I don’t know about that, I have a microwave that is turning 20 years old this year, still works great, Hahaha.




Seriously?  Totally taking aside its made in china a 20yo microwave is something you should think twice about. 

Even its working good chances it has developed or developing radiation leaks are fair,  unless u have the gear to test it,  or hide behind a wall each time you use it,  time to upgrade before u start having migraines and vomiting randomly


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> Seriously?  Totally taking aside its made in china a 20yo microwave is something you should think twice about.
> 
> Even its working good chances it has developed or developing radiation leaks are fair,  unless u have the gear to test it,  or hide behind a wall each time you use it,  time to upgrade before u start having migraines and vomiting randomly



Hahaha, yeah I have thought of that, and will be replacing it once our kitchen Reno is done, but It was the first appliance I ever bought myself when I left home, and it still works great.


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2021)

Humid said:


> View attachment 122802



Yep that’s the one I am talking about, it wasn’t meant to be a “joint press confrence” Greg Hunt jumped in at the last minute, the press conference had already been organised for Forrest and the Chinese to announce the medical supplies.

But the media spun it, because obviously a controversy gets more clicks, and if Gareth Parker can whip his listeners into and outrage, they stay tuned in and listen to more ads.


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2021)

martaart077 said:


> @Value Collector​Don't let the truth stand in the way of u propaganda nonsense
> Thumbs up Red
> ​Greg Hunt blindsided as Chinese consul-general crashes press conference​
> Smh
> ...



Andrew Forrest was on the Today show the next day saying that it was his press conference, but it was to late by then the media had a juicy story to print.


----------



## Humid (14 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Yep that’s the one I am talking about, it wasn’t meant to be a “joint press confrence” Greg Hunt jumped in at the last minute, the press conference had already been organised for Forrest and the Chinese to announce the medical supplies.
> 
> But the media spun it, because obviously a controversy gets more clicks, and if Gareth Parker can whip his listeners into and outrage, they stay tuned in and listen to more ads.



You might want to read it again


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2021)

Humid said:


> You might want to read it again



Listen to Andrews side, not a Third person account.


----------



## Humid (14 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Listen to Andrews side, not a Third person account.




Just try reading it again


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2021)

Humid said:


> Just try reading it again



Yes, I have read it 4 times now, what is it you want me to be getting from this article written about what some radio announcer said about Andrew forest?

what I want you to understand is that this was Andrew Forrest press conference, he organised it, he can invite along who ever he likes.


----------



## Humid (14 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Yes, I have read it 4 times now, what is it you want me to be getting from this article written about what some radio announcer said about Andrew forest?
> 
> what I want you to understand is that this was Andrew Forrest press conference, he organised it, he can invite along who ever he likes.



ffs
Hunt was in Melbourne and Twiggy pulled the same stunt earlier in PERTH with Madam Dong intow

A bit strange Hunt gatecrashing Twiggys presser considering it was in the Commonwealth parliament offices in Melbourne dont you think


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2021)

Humid said:


> ffs
> Hunt was in Melbourne and Twiggy pulled the same stunt earlier in PERTH with Madam Dong intow
> 
> A bit strange Hunt gatecrashing Twiggys presser considering it was in the Commonwealth parliament offices in Melbourne dont you think



I am talking about the one in Perth, it was arranged by twiggy, Greg Hunt asked if he could join in.

If Greg Hunt was so upset by Twiggy, why would he do a second press Confrence with him, it’s a Media Beat mate, and you took the bait.

What is it exactly about the press conferences that upset you?


----------



## Humid (14 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> I am talking about the one in Perth, it was arranged by twiggy, Greg Hunt asked if he could join in.
> 
> If Greg Hunt was so upset by Twiggy, why would he do a second press Confrence with him, it’s a Media Beat mate, and you took the bait.
> 
> What is it exactly about the press conferences that upset you?



The presser in Perth was with WA health minister Roger Cook the one with Runt was in Melbourne commonwealth parliament offices which pretty much explains why Hunt was there


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2021)

Humid said:


> The presser in Perth was with WA health minister Roger Cook the one with Runt was in Melbourne commonwealth parliament offices which pretty much explains why Hunt was there



Either way, Greg Hunt wasn’t upset by it, it’s just a media beat up.

Andrew Forrest has said that his Minderoo foundation was the one the organised the press conference, which makes sense because it was them that organised the 10 million testing kits that they had arranged.


----------



## Humid (14 April 2021)

And Hunt was there to thank him one would assume









						Beware of billionaires bearing gifts: Twiggy's ambush a long time coming
					

Critics of 'Twiggy' Forrest's 'ambush' of Health Minister Greg Hunt need to realise that this is nothing new for the billionaire.




					www.crikey.com.au


----------



## martaart077 (14 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Either way, Greg Hunt wasn’t upset by it, it’s just a media beat up.
> 
> Andrew Forrest has said that his Minderoo foundation was the one the organised the press conference, which makes sense because it was them that organised the 10 million testing kits that they had arranged.



And we ended up paying top dollar for them
What a philanthropist he is. 
Put a smile on the Chinese as well. 

The irony that the delivery came from Wuhan would not have been lost on the Chinese either. 

Its a full service delivery in Wuhan. Give u the virus and give u some ppe... Which if course u will have to pay for.


----------



## sptrawler (14 April 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> Seriously?  Totally taking aside its made in china a 20yo microwave is something you should think twice about.
> 
> Even its working good chances it has developed or developing radiation leaks are fair,  unless u have the gear to test it,  or hide behind a wall each time you use it,  time to upgrade before u start having migraines and vomiting randomly



A couple of years ago we did a cruise from Tianjin, around Japan and back to Tianjin.
I cracked up when we returning to the ship at the last port of call in Japan, nearly every Chinese passenger was carrying a box back onto the ship, I asked one of them what is everyone buying and was told "Japanese rice cookers: apparently they reckon chinese ones are $hit.


----------



## Value Collector (15 April 2021)

Humid said:


> And Hunt was there to thank him one would assume
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Gee, a “Crikey” article, really scraping the bottom of the barrel there, hahaha.


----------



## Humid (15 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Gee, a “Crikey” article, really scraping the bottom of the barrel there, hahaha.





Value Collector said:


> Listen to Andrews side, not a Third person account.




Yeah I couldnt fiind a reference for it on your choice  of News service The Today show with Karl
hahaha


----------



## Clansman (15 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Hahaha, yeah I have thought of that, and will be replacing it once our kitchen Reno is done, but It was the first appliance I ever bought myself when I left home, and it still works great.




You should certainly consider having it looked at as it certainly wouldn't have been looked at during manufacture.
Remember this is the country that suffocated 70 of it's navy personnel in a submarine, including some young cadets.


----------



## Value Collector (15 April 2021)

Humid said:


> Yeah I couldnt fiind a reference for it on your choice  of News service The Today show with Karl
> hahaha



Well I linked an actual interview from the guy involved, Karl being involved is irrelevant, while Crikey is nothing but flim flam.


----------



## Humid (15 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Well I linked an actual interview from the guy involved, Karl being involved is irrelevant, while Crikey is nothing but flim flam.



It shows me where you get your info from Channel Costello


----------



## Value Collector (15 April 2021)

Clansman said:


> Remember this is the country that suffocated 70 of it's navy personnel in a submarine, including some young cadets.



It’s not like Australia hasn’t had our own share of military disasters, look at the HMAD Westralia for example, just lucky that didn’t happen on a submarine or we would have lost the entire crew also.


----------



## Value Collector (15 April 2021)

Humid said:


> It shows me where you get your info from Channel Costello



I have no idea what the Costello channel is, but of course I look for actual interviews from the people involved rather than 3 hand political opinion pieces such as Crikey,... but you do you.


----------



## Humid (15 April 2021)

Why would he do a Presser in The Melbourne Parliament offices if he didnt want wind blown up his arse from a politician?


----------



## Humid (15 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> I have no idea what the Costello channel is, but of course I look for actual interviews from the people involved rather than 3 hand political opinion pieces such as Crikey,... but you do you.



He used to be the treasurer but is now chairman of 9
Do you live under a rock?


----------



## Value Collector (15 April 2021)

Humid said:


> He used to be the treasurer but is now chairman of 9
> Do you live under a rock?



Why would I care who the chairman of channel 9 is?


----------



## Humid (15 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Why would I care who the chairman of channel 9 is?



Well you knew Karl


----------



## Humid (15 April 2021)

Maybe you should of read some of them newspapers you were delivering as a child


----------



## Clansman (15 April 2021)

Humid said:


> Maybe you should of read some of them newspapers you were delivering as a child




Instead of stowing them under a bridge and expecting to be paid for it...


----------



## Value Collector (15 April 2021)

Humid said:


> Well you knew Karl



Barely, I don’t watch the show, I found the interview on YouTube.

but I am struggling to understand the relevance of why you are talking about Karl or Costello as if they some how take away from the what Forrest said.

I imagine Forrest chose Today because rut was probably the first place he could get a platform quickly given the reach of the show and the fact it airs first thing in the morning and he would have wanted to address the false claims as fast as possible.

he certainly wouldn’t have gone to a back water pamphlet like Crikey.


----------



## Value Collector (15 April 2021)

Humid said:


> Maybe you should of read some of them newspapers you were delivering as a child



Nah, I read the financial review as a child, I had no interest in the local rag I delivered, would be better than Crikey though.

But the capital I got delivering that local rag has grown into an 8 figure investment portfolio in part due to Chinese economic growth helping Australia avoid recession for the last 20+ years.


----------



## moXJO (15 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Nah, I read the financial review as a child, I had no interest in the local rag I delivered, would be better than Crikey though.
> 
> But the capital I got delivering that local rag has grown into an 8 figure investment portfolio in part due to Chinese economic growth helping Australia avoid recession for the last 20+ years.



Update that bloody microwave you tightarse.


----------



## Humid (15 April 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Nah, I read the financial review as a child, I had no interest in the local rag I delivered, would be better than Crikey though.
> 
> But the capital I got delivering that local rag has grown into an 8 figure investment portfolio in part due to Chinese economic growth helping Australia avoid recession for the last 20+ years.



Knowing you reading preference as a child I will now retreat to the General chat .........


----------



## rederob (16 April 2021)

Back on topic, China broke its own year-on-year GDP record in the March quarter, however it was a touch below analyst expectations:  the median survey of Bloomberg analysts had predicted 18.5 per cent growth between January and March. 
Retail sales were a standout:


----------



## rederob (20 April 2021)

Pivotal to China opening itself up to its own population, and to driving steel demand, is China's aim to add another 35000km of high speed rail to its network:


The tidbit of note in the video was mention of how China invested in infrastructure during the pandemic.  They seem to have worked out that* paying people not to work is not good* for an economy.
Little wonder iron ore prices are holding up.


----------



## Humid (20 April 2021)

rederob said:


> Pivotal to China opening itself up to its own population, and to driving steel demand, is China's aim to add another 35000km of high speed rail to its network:
> 
> 
> The tidbit of note in the video was mention of how China invested in infrastructure during the pandemic. They seem to have worked out that* paying people not to work is not good* for an economy.
> Little wonder iron ore prices are holding up.




We do make a bloody good flat white though


----------



## rederob (20 April 2021)

Humid said:


> We do make a bloody good flat white though



Steamroller operator?


----------



## rederob (22 April 2021)

The Australian government has returned to the dark days of fostering a "yellow peril".
It almost beggars belief that with China slapping tariffs on a range of non-critical exports from Australia that we now risk further pettiness from them.

However, Morrison's government knows no bounds when it comes to ineptitude.  The man is a trainwreck who is happy to live in the past and be extremely comfortable doing America's bidding.

Below is some perspective.
Australia's two-way trade with America is a quarter that of China and, significantly, is being massively outpaced by our trade with Asia as a whole:



So our alignment with America from an economic sense is not the brightest move.

*In terms of export markets America is even less important:*


----------



## Joe Blow (5 May 2021)

After a good 45 minutes going through this thread, I have split off as many off-topic posts as I can into a separate thread titled China and The West: Political Systems Compared and Contrasted. Those who would like to continue that discussion can do so over there.

This thread has been re-titled, "China's Economy" so there can be no doubt as to its purpose. Moving forward, please keep all posts on-topic.

Thank you.


----------



## sptrawler (5 May 2021)

China's dependence on Australia's iron ore, is becoming a problem for Chinese steel makers as the price just keeps soaring.
This article gives a good insight into the issue.








						No end in sight for China’s dependence on Australian iron ore | The Strategist
					

China’s steel industry is blaming the concentrated ownership of Australia’s iron ore mines for the soaring ore price and is calling for Chinese government intervention. ‘We believe that the supply side is highly concentrated and ...




					www.aspistrategist.org.au
				



from the article:
_The iron ore price has been nudging close to a record US$200 a tonne, more than double the price of a year ago and three times the price expected by the Australian government when it compiled last year’s budget.

The price is delivering fabulous profits to Australian mines and is also boosting Australian government tax revenues. The cost of extracting iron ore is not much more than US$16 a tonne for BHP and Rio Tinto.

In any commodity market, the price is dictated by the highest-cost or marginal supplier. After making allowance for quality and transport, all suppliers of a commodity get the same price in an open market, regardless of what it costs to produce. So, the highest-cost producer is the one that would stop mining if the price were to fall, leaving the market short of supply.

In the iron ore market, the highest-cost producers are all Chinese. China normally takes around 70% of the seaborne trade in iron ore, or around 1 billion tonnes, but it relies on domestic production for a further 900 million tonnes.

However, around three-quarters of China’s domestic production needs a price of at least US$100 a tonne in order to operate, with some mines having much higher break-even thresholds than that. China’s iron ore reserves are low quality and require expensive heat treatment before they can be fed into steel mills. Production peaked at 1.5 billion tonnes in 2015, but has fallen because of the sector’s poor economics and government efforts to stop shallow strip mining, which is environmentally damaging.

While the high operating costs of China’s most marginal mines set a pricing floor, the market has been swept along by demand fuelled by government stimulus spending, both in China and across the world, in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, which has fired steel-hungry construction and consumer goods industries_.

_Australia has been supplying about 60% of world iron ore trade, with exports forecast to reach 900 million tonnes this year. China has been buying up what it can from wherever it can get it, including a doubling of its purchases from India. However, at around 30 million tonnes, India is only a marginal supplier.

China’s great hope is that Africa will provide some relief from its dependence on Australia. It is looking at projects in Algeria, Congo and Guinea, with the last the most advanced.

Analysts expect the Simandou project in Guinea, in which Rio Tinto has a stake alongside Chinese state-owned resources group Chinalco, will proceed, with a total cost of around US$20 billion. It is a large and high-grade orebody, although the infrastructure challenge of getting the ore to port is formidable.

China’s Global Times last week declared that ‘the exploitation of the Simandou mine in Guinea, with the participation of a Chinese company, is expected to help cut the heavy reliance on Australia for imports’.

However, the project, which has been stalled for more than a decade amid corruption claims and conflicts between the government and partners, would take several years to complete, and production in the initial phase is expected to be in the region of 100 million tonnes a year, or about two-thirds the output of Australia’s Fortescue Metals Group. It’s not a big enough project to materially transform the global iron ore market or to free China from its dependence on Australia_.


----------



## orr (5 May 2021)

Arizona has jumped to the top of my interest with regard China today...
TSMC has announced a mushrooming of factories in the US state. There's no news of expansion in Taiwan that I'm aware of.
Outwardly that would appear as a stratigic relocation above and beyond investment.

Tiawan is going back to the 'middle kingdom' in the next decade or two 'Hot' or 'Cold', is my best guess; ... 
If Field Marshal Dutton and his aid 'de' (really really) camp Pezzullo wish to bunker down in a sandbagged fox hole, all by them selves, on the beaches of Taipei; I wish them god speed and I'll chip in  a $5 voucher for the Golbourn Disposal Store ... 

Dutton has let his inner 'Dr Stangelove' off the leash; wishing his animals to be riased for... '*Shlaughter'*


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 May 2021)

I don't see China's economy contracting to the degree that Japan did two decades ago

It is difficult to predict how ASX stocks will be affected by the ongoing stoush with China. 

Or which sectors.

That is what I am mulling atm. 

gg


----------



## qldfrog (5 May 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I don't see China's economy contracting to the degree that Japan did two decades ago
> 
> It is difficult to predict how ASX stocks will be affected by the ongoing stoush with China.
> 
> ...



there is so much potential left local consumption wise:bigger flats, more stuff, cars ,clothes food and services.
When I left, young people were getting driving licenses..a comical experience for a westerner but next the cars will come
plenty left in the engine in my view, and then population fall will be replaced with automatisation, already going full speed with the japenese model  to be copied


----------



## Gunnerguy (5 May 2021)

My time in Vietnam 3 years ago was the same. Yes a much smaller population (80m) but the population (man in the street) want all the western ‘stuff’. Millions of motorcycles waiting to replaced by small (EV?) cars over the next 10 years. There still remain HUGE growth in the Chinese economy and so hope Australia plays it diplomatically to keep the trade going.
Gunnerguy.


----------



## qldfrog (6 May 2021)

Just a though:
There are people comparing past China and current India, with the hope that the Chinese economic miracle would be reproduced  in India, and so giving Australia another boost with mineral demand.
Looking at the situation in india now will confirm my doubts on this model.
Add to this the average Chinese view of people based on skin colour, and i doubt India will even be used for cheap manufacturing by Chinese companies, which  prefer Laos or Vietnam .
To summarise: India will be no part in Chinese economy,neither as collaborator or competition.


----------



## pozindustrial (6 May 2021)

In 2017 I attended a talk by Peter Kenny of Colmar Brunton who are market research advisors to governments and global companies. He founded the group in Melbourne 25 years before. Their forecasting was that in the next 20+ years the four super power economies would be China or India first and second, USA third and Indonesia fourth.
Their predictions were that Australia was entering a new phase from the "Conformity" era 2012 to 2016 which had similar values to 1940's and 1950's into the "Rebellion" phase which could last until 2030 which will have values similar to 1960s to 1970s. 
The US he indicated was probably 10 years ahead of us. Predictions included the election of Donald Trump, a corresponding increase in their economy, a coming world problem such as a pandemic, border closures which had begun in 2017 and would include intellectual borders, not just physical. 
They use their powers of prediction to advise global companies who wish to launch products so that those companies could align their products with either the current sentiment or the coming sentiment depending on the life cycle of the product and whether it would be more profitable currently or at a future time, and so that they could launch now or hold off till later or market in one way now and another variation later.
Some of you might break this vague summary down in points and argue about them, but I thought the super power predictions were of interest here.


----------



## qldfrog (6 May 2021)

I believe Indonesia is missing from the narrative in Australia: a big loss as we could have leverage this for manufacturing instead of sending everything inc the know how to China


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 May 2021)

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/china-paper-dragon/618778/

I would recommend the above article from David Frum an Atlantic contributor.

It offers a contrarian view on China's continuing rise economically and strategically quoting extensively from a book by Michael Beckley.



> Michael Beckley published a richly detailed study of Chinese military and economic weaknesses. The book is titled _Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower__._




gg


----------



## qldfrog (6 May 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/china-paper-dragon/618778/
> 
> I would recommend the above article from David Frum an Atlantic contributor.
> 
> ...



I will find it hard to believe after living in China and visiting recently a New York which has lost the vibrancy it had in 30y ago.but just hope you are right.


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## rederob (6 May 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/china-paper-dragon/618778/
> 
> I would recommend the above article from David Frum an Atlantic contributor.
> 
> ...



You should present some themes to show why it is credible as Beckley's case  by way of example seems a tad predicated on disbelieving anything China presents.
We in the west spent years disparaging Chinese GDP data because it clearly was way too high!  Now that they are back into single digits their same metrics are now credible?
Beckley has an overriding belief in his concept of "power" which he defines as being able to get anything you want.  My personal belief is that it is actually about stopping others being able to get what *they *want. That's why the USA has been waging a trade war and banning Chinese companies from using equipment that contains prescribed technologies.  America has successfully spent over 60 years keeping Cuba a 3rd world country.  However, China is already a powerhouse in many fields - space and AI come to mind - and the idea that America can suppress China's continued advance is likely to have a short time span.


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## finicky (6 May 2021)

Cuba did everything possible to remain  3rd world country all on its own, eg forcing its theretofore self sufficient peasant agrarian populace into foreign exchange earning commodity crops. Why wouldn't America ban commerce with an illegimate bloody communist dictatorship that invited USSR missiles in and brought the world to the brink of another war? Pity they weren't able to off Fidel.


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## sptrawler (6 May 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Just a though:
> There are people comparing past China and current India, with the hope that the Chinese economic miracle would be reproduced  in India, and so giving Australia another boost with mineral demand.
> Looking at the situation in india now will confirm my doubts on this model.
> Add to this the average Chinese view of people based on skin colour, and i doubt India will even be used for cheap manufacturing by Chinese companies, which  prefer Laos or Vietnam .
> To summarise: India will be no part in Chinese economy,neither as collaborator or competition.



The other problem with India is the caste system, it wont be broken down any time soon and in a lot of ways holds back the countries potential.








						What is India's caste system?
					

India's complex caste system is among the world's oldest forms of surviving social stratification.



					www.bbc.com


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## qldfrog (6 May 2021)

sptrawler said:


> The other problem with India is the caste system, it wont be broken down any time soon and in a lot of ways holds back the countries potential.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



And administration nightmare: as bad as France...


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## sptrawler (6 May 2021)

qldfrog said:


> I believe Indonesia is missing from the narrative in Australia: a big loss as we could have leverage this for manufacturing instead of sending everything inc the know how to China



The problem with that is, when Australia removed the tariffs which protected onshore production, in the mid 1980's to mid 1990's. 
Australian companies looked overseas, China gave all the incentives, basically agreed to make the product for nothing, so the companies did what was best for the companies.
Then the remaining companies, now had to compete with the Australian company that was getting their product made for nothing in China, so guess what they did? This was all brought about to make Australian manufacturing more efficient, or go broke, just another brain fart.


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## sptrawler (6 May 2021)

rederob said:


> You should present some themes to show why it is credible as Beckley's case  by way of example seems a tad predicated on disbelieving anything China presents.
> We in the west spent years disparaging Chinese GDP data because it clearly was way too high!  Now that they are back into single digits their same metrics are now credible?
> Beckley has an overriding belief in his concept of "power" which he defines as being able to get anything you want.  My personal belief is that it is actually about stopping others being able to get what *they *want. That's why the USA has been waging a trade war and banning Chinese companies from using equipment that contains prescribed technologies.  America has successfully spent over 60 years keeping Cuba a 3rd world country.  However, China is already a powerhouse in many fields - space and AI come to mind - and the idea that America can suppress China's continued advance is likely to have a short time span.



All very true, but that doesn't mean that because China has brought the Country from a very low standard of living to a first world country, they should be accepted as the way forward the World should take.
Most of China's growth, has been at the cost of the middle class workers in places like the U.S and to a lesser degree Australia, where their jobs have been outsourced to China.
That doesn't mean China has done well, it means the West has been benevolent, but as usual welfare becomes an entitlement.
Which goes back to the old saying never shall a good deed go unpunished, yes the west has benefited from cheap Chinese production, but as you say the West could have left China like Cuba.
Now China is like the U.S, is it going to be as benevolent and outsource some of its manufacturing to poorer countries, time will tell.


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 May 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/china-paper-dragon/618778/
> 
> I would recommend the above article from David Frum an Atlantic contributor.
> 
> ...



Unfortunately I am only interested in ideas, making money and the continuance of the Gumnut genes, so I will not get in to any arguments on the politics contained in some of the replies to my post. I just wished to share it on the China : Economics thread.

I have only met Mainland Chinese people in Australia from the monied or educated classes, apart from some sailors in the pub, pre-Covid, so it is interesting to get a contrary view on the present demographics and state of China. 

I must admit I didn't realise their society was so structured and limited in opportunity. Very much like Western society really but to a greater degree if you believe this article.

That is all I will say. Except that Chinese sailors drink heaps of Guinness, their preferred tipple until whisky time, and educated and rich Chinese do not. 

gg


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## rederob (6 May 2021)

sptrawler said:


> All very true, but that doesn't mean that because China has brought the Country from a very low standard of living to a first world country, they should be accepted as the way forward the World should take.



Aside from some significant prosperity and modernisation centred around major cities, China remains very much a work in progress.  I was not aware anyone would think of China as model for their country except perhaps in regard to the rigour they put into their 5-year plans from inception to execution.


sptrawler said:


> Most of China's growth, has been at the cost of the middle class workers in places like the U.S and to a lesser degree Australia, where their jobs have been outsourced to China.



I suspect it's more to do with wholesale replacement at all levels, but mostly at the lesser skilled levels given very low wages at the face of production.  Many US companies remain headquartered in the USA with management, design and distribution responsibilities, but little to no production.  Arlec would be an example of an Australian company that did similar.


sptrawler said:


> Now China is like the U.S, is it going to be as benevolent and outsource some of its manufacturing to poorer countries, time will tell.



When in was China in 2019 A German guy I met there (working for VW) was telling me how a number of their product lines were too expensive to produce in China and were instead being made elsewhere in SE Asia.  That's capitalism at its peak.


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## qldfrog (6 May 2021)

qldfrog said:


> And administration nightmare: as bad as France...



But let's go back to china, just wanted to add some comparison as this subject often pops up.


Garpal Gumnut said:


> Unfortunately I am only interested in ideas, making money and the continuance of the Gumnut genes, so I will not get in to any arguments on the politics contained in some of the replies to my post. I just wished to share it on the China : Economics thread.
> 
> I have only met Mainland Chinese people in Australia from the monied or educated classes, apart from some sailors in the pub, pre-Covid, so it is interesting to get a contrary view on the present demographics and state of China.
> 
> ...



I quickly had a read at the article, and I believe it is just an american dream wish..some bases for some raised issues, but honestly the points looked 20y old, and now mostly proven wrong, the author emphasis on the cost of keeping surveillance on the people -> he has no clue on the automatisation of that side..less cops in the streets than in the US, no 40m of Americans on food stamps equivalent: a one race unity instead of a rainbowinner fighting. In his dreams only...


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## basilio (6 May 2021)

I thought this was a critical comment from  post 237  that SP put up yesterday.  Looks like we all  owe Kevin Rudd a big vote of thanks!!

*The Chinese government was thwarted by the Rudd government in its attempt to have Chinalco take over Rio Tinto, which it thought would give it the ability to keep a lid on iron ore prices.*









						No end in sight for China’s dependence on Australian iron ore | The Strategist
					

China’s steel industry is blaming the concentrated ownership of Australia’s iron ore mines for the soaring ore price and is calling for Chinese government intervention. ‘We believe that the supply side is highly concentrated and ...




					www.aspistrategist.org.au
				











						Chinalco's 'great regret' at Rio deal collapse
					

Chinalco has expressed its disappointment at Rio Tinto's decision to scrap a $24.3b deal.




					www.abc.net.au


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## sptrawler (6 May 2021)

basilio said:


> I thought this was a critical comment from  post 237  that SP put up yesterday.  Looks like we all  owe Kevin Rudd a big vote of thanks!!
> 
> *The Chinese government was thwarted by the Rudd government in its attempt to have Chinalco take over Rio Tinto, which it thought would give it the ability to keep a lid on iron ore prices.*
> 
> ...



Interesting how we see that as in the countries best interest, but now have concerns when the government want to block some belt and road  initiatives, which are seen as inflaming tensions with China.
We are a weird lot, arent we.


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## Dona Ferentes (7 May 2021)

In a sign of Australia’s growing status as a global clean energy superpower, the International Energy Agency identified it alongside China and the Democratic Republic of Congo as having a near stranglehold on key metals required for electric cars, wind turbines and clean energy grids.


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## Humid (7 May 2021)

Interesting how we see that as in the countries best interest, but now have concerns when the government want to block some belt and road  initiatives, which are seen as inflaming tensions with China.


sptrawler said:


> We are a weird lot, arent we.



Dont forget the Port of Darwin


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## over9k (7 May 2021)

India's getting smashed by the virus at the moment: 




But don't go thinking that china's a long term bet. Its day in the sun is almost over.


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## qldfrog (10 May 2021)

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wir...bell_direct&utm_campaign=Trending on Livewire
China and our economy


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## sptrawler (19 May 2021)

China's expectation of an alternative iron ore supply from Guinea West Africa, which we have talked about previously, isn't going to be without its issues, not all of which will be logistical.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/chilling-threat-gulf-guinea-key-shipping-route-055716182.html


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## boofhead (20 May 2021)

China will fix that with their navy. It will be good PR for them.


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## qldfrog (20 May 2021)

sptrawler said:


> China's expectation of an alternative iron ore supply from Guinea West Africa, which we have talked about previously, isn't going to be without its issues, not all of which will be logistical.
> https://au.news.yahoo.com/chilling-threat-gulf-guinea-key-shipping-route-055716182.html
> 
> View attachment 124510



I have no doubt whatsoever that the Chinese government will sort that quickly if it becomes an issue with all the moderation they are familiar with, unless a pirate wants to see his whole village and community cindering, the chinese flag boats will be safe, with onboad military personel if need be


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