# Two Portfolios - One Mechanical System - A Trend-following Diary



## Trendnomics

Hey guys/girls,

I've been a long time non-contributing reader of ASF - hopefully this thread will be a good start to correcting my imbalance. 

The purpose of this thread is to provide a diary/update-log for two systematic equity trend-following portfolio's I run (a SMSF Portfolio and Private Portfolio). All trades are generated by a mechanically coded EOD system, for long-only equity positions.

The universe in which my system seeks entry positions is bounded by:

Closing price greater or equal than 50 cents - (Close >= 0.5);
Product of 100 day closing price moving average and 100 day volume moving average, to be greater or equal than $250,000 - [Mov(CLOSE,100,S)*Mov(VOLUME,100,S) >= 250000].
Key metrics from Monte Carlo back-testing (system generates more trades than available trading capital - numerous combinations possible - i.e. "butterfly-like-effect"):

ASX: 1992 -2015 (2000 Simulations - Open trades and all delisted shares included - Excludes dividends):


Average Number of Trades Executed:863Minimum percentage of winning trades:44.57%Maximum Absolute Percent Drawdown:27.35%Average Profit:13302.17% ( ±23% pa compounded)
NASDAQ: 1985 -2014 (2000 Simulations - Open trades included - Excludes dividends):


Average Number of Trades Executed:1046Minimum percentage of winning trades:42.74%Maximum Absolute Percent Drawdown:48.66%Average Profit:20846.73% ( ±20% pa compounded)
Two random run system results - ASX: 1992 -2015 (Open trades and all delisted shares included - Excludes dividends):



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Two random run system results - NASDAQ: 1985 -2014 (Open trades included - Excludes dividends)



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## Trendnomics

Current closed trades (actual executed) for the *Private Portfolio:*



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	[td]Running Portfolio Return 
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]RMD     [/td]"	[td]08-05-2013[/td]	[td]09-05-2013[/td]	[td]$4.801[/td]	[td]$4.859[/td]	[td]1.23%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]0.08%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SKE     [/td]"	[td]08-05-2013[/td]	[td]09-05-2013[/td]	[td]$2.856[/td]	[td]$2.834[/td]	[td]-0.79%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]0.03%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DJS     [/td]"	[td]08-05-2013[/td]	[td]28-05-2013[/td]	[td]$2.906[/td]	[td]$2.594[/td]	[td]-10.76%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGA     [/td]"	[td]22-05-2013[/td]	[td]01-07-2013[/td]	[td]$2.355[/td]	[td]$2.025[/td]	[td]-14.03%​[/td]	[td]2.55%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.36%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MLB     [/td]"	[td]24-07-2013[/td]	[td]26-07-2013[/td]	[td]$2.236[/td]	[td]$1.869[/td]	[td]-16.37%​[/td]	[td]11.18%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.68%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DYE     [/td]"	[td]30-07-2013[/td]	[td]02-09-2013[/td]	[td]$0.521[/td]	[td]$0.353[/td]	[td]-32.2%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-3.66%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AWE     [/td]"	[td]24-07-2013[/td]	[td]21-10-2013[/td]	[td]$1.443[/td]	[td]$1.282[/td]	[td]-11.16%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-4.33%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ROC     [/td]"	[td]26-07-2013[/td]	[td]24-10-2013[/td]	[td]$0.536[/td]	[td]$0.499[/td]	[td]-6.95%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-4.74%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CCV     [/td]"	[td]12-09-2013[/td]	[td]29-10-2013[/td]	[td]$1.259[/td]	[td]$1.086[/td]	[td]-13.71%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.56%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]UGL     [/td]"	[td]13-09-2013[/td]	[td]20-11-2013[/td]	[td]$8.126[/td]	[td]$6.832[/td]	[td]-15.92%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-6.5%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]FGE     [/td]"	[td]13-09-2013[/td]	[td]28-11-2013[/td]	[td]$5.421[/td]	[td]$0.673[/td]	[td]-87.58%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-11.62%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPL1     [/td]"	[td]21-11-2013[/td]	[td]29-11-2013[/td]	[td]$2.626[/td]	[td]$2.584[/td]	[td]-1.58%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-11.7%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BDR     [/td]"	[td]02-10-2013[/td]	[td]04-12-2013[/td]	[td]$0.837[/td]	[td]$0.673[/td]	[td]-19.56%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-12.78%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TTN     [/td]"	[td]15-10-2013[/td]	[td]06-12-2013[/td]	[td]$3.257[/td]	[td]$2.483[/td]	[td]-23.77%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-14.08%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]FBU     [/td]"	[td]17-09-2013[/td]	[td]27-12-2013[/td]	[td]$8.337[/td]	[td]$7.742[/td]	[td]-7.14%​[/td]	[td]1.8%​​[/td]	"[td]-14.37%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RFG     [/td]"	[td]11-09-2013[/td]	[td]30-12-2013[/td]	[td]$4.519[/td]	[td]$4.58[/td]	[td]1.35%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-14.29%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]QUB     [/td]"	[td]20-09-2013[/td]	[td]02-01-2014[/td]	[td]$2.024[/td]	[td]$2.066[/td]	[td]2.05%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-14.18%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GOZ     [/td]"	[td]25-09-2013[/td]	[td]17-01-2014[/td]	[td]$2.585[/td]	[td]$2.434[/td]	[td]-5.83%​[/td]	[td]3.64%​​[/td]	"[td]-14.3%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SUL     [/td]"	[td]26-09-2013[/td]	[td]20-01-2014[/td]	[td]$13.326[/td]	[td]$11.221[/td]	[td]-15.8%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-15.15%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MCP     [/td]"	[td]11-11-2013[/td]	[td]29-01-2014[/td]	[td]$1.647[/td]	[td]$1.344[/td]	[td]-18.42%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-16.13%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MYX1     [/td]"	[td]16-08-2013[/td]	[td]30-01-2014[/td]	[td]$0.591[/td]	[td]$0.724[/td]	[td]22.42%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-14.95%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CDD     [/td]"	[td]24-10-2013[/td]	[td]06-02-2014[/td]	[td]$6.806[/td]	[td]$6.084[/td]	[td]-10.61%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-15.51%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AGO     [/td]"	[td]21-10-2013[/td]	[td]06-02-2014[/td]	[td]$1.007[/td]	[td]$1.003[/td]	[td]-0.44%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-15.54%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BCI     [/td]"	[td]02-09-2013[/td]	[td]11-03-2014[/td]	[td]$4.469[/td]	[td]$4.57[/td]	[td]2.26%​[/td]	[td]10.52%​​[/td]	"[td]-14.86%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BEN     [/td]"	[td]24-01-2014[/td]	[td]15-04-2014[/td]	[td]$11.61[/td]	[td]$10.91[/td]	[td]-6.02%​[/td]	[td]2.67%​​[/td]	"[td]-15.04%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MML     [/td]"	[td]14-03-2014[/td]	[td]23-04-2014[/td]	[td]$2.574[/td]	[td]$1.803[/td]	[td]-29.95%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-16.63%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CLH     [/td]"	[td]19-02-2014[/td]	[td]24-04-2014[/td]	[td]$1.903[/td]	[td]$1.692[/td]	[td]-11.1%​[/td]	[td]2.05%​​[/td]	"[td]-17.1%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DLS     [/td]"	[td]30-01-2014[/td]	[td]04-06-2014[/td]	[td]$1.468[/td]	[td]$1.527[/td]	[td]3.95%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-16.9%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CAJ     [/td]"	[td]01-04-2014[/td]	[td]06-06-2014[/td]	[td]$0.611[/td]	[td]$0.444[/td]	[td]-27.39%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-18.32%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EVN     [/td]"	[td]18-03-2014[/td]	[td]10-06-2014[/td]	[td]$0.942[/td]	[td]$0.823[/td]	[td]-12.54%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-18.96%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MYX2[/td]"	[td]28-03-2014[/td]	[td]12-06-2014[/td]	[td]$0.972[/td]	[td]$0.873[/td]	[td]-10.11%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-19.47%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IFM1     [/td]"	[td]25-02-2014[/td]	[td]20-06-2014[/td]	[td]$0.756[/td]	[td]$0.739[/td]	[td]-2.31%​[/td]	[td]2.5%​​[/td]	"[td]-19.46%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]NVT     [/td]"	[td]01-04-2014[/td]	[td]10-07-2014[/td]	[td]$7.314[/td]	[td]$5.086[/td]	[td]-30.47%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-21%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]FXJ     [/td]"	[td]15-04-2014[/td]	[td]16-07-2014[/td]	[td]$0.942[/td]	[td]$0.888[/td]	[td]-5.64%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-21.28%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SYD     [/td]"	[td]07-05-2014[/td]	[td]25-08-2014[/td]	[td]$4.309[/td]	[td]$4.391[/td]	[td]1.92%​[/td]	[td]2.67%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.05%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]NHF     [/td]"	[td]28-05-2014[/td]	[td]15-09-2014[/td]	[td]$3.155[/td]	[td]$2.995[/td]	[td]-5.09%​[/td]	[td]4.67%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.07%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]PAN     [/td]"	[td]04-06-2014[/td]	[td]24-09-2014[/td]	[td]$0.677[/td]	[td]$0.648[/td]	[td]-4.15%​[/td]	[td]2.96%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.13%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CGF     [/td]"	[td]17-09-2013[/td]	[td]01-10-2014[/td]	[td]$5.21[/td]	[td]$7.008[/td]	[td]34.51%​[/td]	[td]4.99%​​[/td]	"[td]-19.18%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]NTC     [/td]"	[td]17-06-2014[/td]	[td]01-10-2014[/td]	[td]$0.651[/td]	[td]$0.529[/td]	[td]-18.8%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-20.13%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SIR     [/td]"	[td]18-07-2014[/td]	[td]08-10-2014[/td]	[td]$3.957[/td]	[td]$2.923[/td]	[td]-26.13%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-21.44%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GXL     [/td]"	[td]16-07-2014[/td]	[td]09-10-2014[/td]	[td]$9.706[/td]	[td]$9.384[/td]	[td]-3.32%​[/td]	[td]0.72%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.56%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APE     [/td]"	[td]20-06-2014[/td]	[td]13-10-2014[/td]	[td]$5.829[/td]	[td]$5.434[/td]	[td]-6.78%​[/td]	[td]1.54%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.82%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AMP     [/td]"	[td]15-05-2014[/td]	[td]14-10-2014[/td]	[td]$5.341[/td]	[td]$5.179[/td]	[td]-3.02%​[/td]	[td]2.34%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.85%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EGP     [/td]"	[td]04-08-2014[/td]	[td]14-10-2014[/td]	[td]$3.275[/td]	[td]$3.355[/td]	[td]2.41%​[/td]	[td]1.22%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.68%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TTS     [/td]"	[td]02-07-2014[/td]	[td]20-10-2014[/td]	[td]$3.416[/td]	[td]$3.124[/td]	[td]-8.54%​[/td]	[td]1.61%​​[/td]	"[td]-22.01%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IMF     [/td]"	[td]03-06-2014[/td]	[td]23-10-2014[/td]	[td]$1.973[/td]	[td]$1.997[/td]	[td]1.18%​[/td]	[td]2.53%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.83%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]WHC     [/td]"	[td]25-08-2014[/td]	[td]30-10-2014[/td]	[td]$1.969[/td]	[td]$1.537[/td]	[td]-21.96%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-22.91%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]LNG     [/td]"	[td]28-03-2014[/td]	[td]14-11-2014[/td]	[td]$0.576[/td]	[td]$3.536[/td]	[td]514.02%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]1.86%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CAJ     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2014[/td]	[td]02-12-2014[/td]	[td]$0.681[/td]	[td]$0.589[/td]	[td]-13.59%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]1%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TNE     [/td]"	[td]15-09-2014[/td]	[td]03-12-2014[/td]	[td]$3.136[/td]	[td]$2.914[/td]	[td]-7.05%​[/td]	[td]1.98%​​[/td]	"[td]0.68%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IFM2[/td]"	[td]13-10-2014[/td]	[td]24-12-2014[/td]	[td]$1.132[/td]	[td]$1.198[/td]	[td]5.86%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]1.04%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ASZ     [/td]"	[td]10-10-2014[/td]	[td]02-01-2015[/td]	[td]$0.776[/td]	[td]$0.612[/td]	[td]-21.13%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.29%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ALU     [/td]"	[td]08-12-2014[/td]	[td]14-01-2015[/td]	[td]$3.294[/td]	[td]$2.926[/td]	[td]-11.19%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.99%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SHV     [/td]"	[td]08-10-2014[/td]	[td]19-01-2015[/td]	[td]$6.19[/td]	[td]$6.06[/td]	[td]-2.11%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-1.12%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]PMV     [/td]"	[td]30-09-2014[/td]	[td]11-02-2015[/td]	[td]$10.154[/td]	[td]$10.926[/td]	[td]7.6%​[/td]	[td]1.97%​​[/td]	"[td]-0.53%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MNF     [/td]"	[td]11-11-2014[/td]	[td]11-02-2015[/td]	[td]$3.684[/td]	[td]$2.795[/td]	[td]-24.12%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2.03%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGA     [/td]"	[td]07-11-2014[/td]	[td]04-03-2015[/td]	[td]$2.713[/td]	[td]$2.796[/td]	[td]3.07%​[/td]	[td]1.84%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.72%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRX     [/td]"	[td]23-10-2014[/td]	[td]18-03-2015[/td]	[td]$23.697[/td]	[td]$19.383[/td]	[td]-18.21%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2.84%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SKI     [/td]"	[td]19-01-2015[/td]	[td]09-04-2015[/td]	[td]$2.153[/td]	[td]$1.957[/td]	[td]-9.08%​[/td]	[td]2.67%​​[/td]	"[td]-3.23%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]LLC     [/td]"	[td]09-05-2014[/td]	[td]01-05-2015[/td]	[td]$13.176[/td]	[td]$16.234[/td]	[td]23.2%​[/td]	[td]5.77%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.48%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TLS     [/td]"	[td]16-01-2015[/td]	[td]12-05-2015[/td]	[td]$6.218[/td]	[td]$6.042[/td]	[td]-2.82%​[/td]	[td]2.41%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.51%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RMD     [/td]"	[td]04-11-2014[/td]	[td]15-05-2015[/td]	[td]$5.918[/td]	[td]$7.031[/td]	[td]18.79%​[/td]	[td]0.99%​​[/td]	"[td]-0.29%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AJX     [/td]"	[td]11-12-2014[/td]	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]$0.531[/td]	[td]$0.529[/td]	[td]-0.31%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.31%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MGR     [/td]"	[td]11-02-2015[/td]	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]$2.123[/td]	[td]$1.977[/td]	[td]-6.83%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.73%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IGO     [/td]"	[td]01-05-2015[/td]	[td]28-05-2015[/td]	[td]$5.907[/td]	[td]$4.753[/td]	[td]-19.53%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-1.94%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPL2     [/td]"	[td]11-02-2015[/td]	[td]29-05-2015[/td]	[td]$3.764[/td]	[td]$4.036[/td]	[td]7.2%​[/td]	[td]1.17%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.43%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]JHC     [/td]"	[td]27-05-2015[/td]	[td]23-06-2015[/td]	[td]$2.853[/td]	[td]$2.747[/td]	[td]-3.73%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-1.66%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]1PG     [/td]"	[td]18-03-2015[/td]	[td]29-06-2015[/td]	[td]$1.657[/td]	[td]$1.878[/td]	[td]13.34%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.84%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TFC     [/td]"	[td]27-05-2015[/td]	[td]01-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.862[/td]	[td]$1.548[/td]	[td]-16.87%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-1.89%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ASB     [/td]"	[td]16-06-2014[/td]	[td]07-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.252[/td]	[td]$1.763[/td]	[td]40.75%​[/td]	[td]0.8%​​[/td]	"[td]0.66%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ILU     [/td]"	[td]09-04-2015[/td]	[td]07-07-2015[/td]	[td]$8.88[/td]	[td]$7.44[/td]	[td]-16.21%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.36%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MYX     [/td]"	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]09-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.136[/td]	[td]$1.084[/td]	[td]-4.63%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TCL     [/td]"	[td]02-01-2015[/td]	[td]13-07-2015[/td]	[td]$8.661[/td]	[td]$9.749[/td]	[td]12.56%​[/td]	[td]2.37%​​[/td]	"[td]0.28%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EPW     [/td]"	[td]02-06-2015[/td]	[td]13-07-2015[/td]	[td]$2.543[/td]	[td]$2.167[/td]	[td]-14.77%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MTR     [/td]"	[td]14-11-2014[/td]	[td]16-07-2015[/td]	[td]$2.652[/td]	[td]$3.686[/td]	[td]38.95%​[/td]	[td]1.89%​​[/td]	"[td]1.89%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TOX     [/td]"	[td]04-03-2015[/td]	[td]20-07-2015[/td]	[td]$2.954[/td]	[td]$2.726[/td]	[td]-7.69%​[/td]	[td]1.35%​​[/td]	"[td]1.49%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]QAN[/td]"	[td]30-10-2014[/td]	[td]24-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.647[/td]	[td]$3.656[/td]	[td]121.96%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]9.22%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MTU     [/td]"	[td]29-10-2014[/td]	[td]27-07-2015[/td]	[td]$8.002[/td]	[td]$10.758[/td]	[td]34.43%​[/td]	[td]1.87%​​[/td]	"[td]11.7%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EHE     [/td]"	[td]12-05-2015[/td]	[td]05-08-2015[/td]	[td]$6.397[/td]	[td]$6.413[/td]	[td]0.24%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]11.72%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]OML     [/td]"	[td]15-05-2015[/td]	[td]19-08-2015[/td]	[td]$2.576[/td]	[td]$2.469[/td]	[td]-4.18%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]11.42%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]PMV     [/td]"	[td]29-05-2015[/td]	[td]24-08-2015[/td]	[td]$14.306[/td]	[td]$11.524[/td]	[td]-19.45%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]10.07%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CCP     [/td]"	[td]27-07-2015[/td]	[td]25-08-2015[/td]	[td]$13.129[/td]	[td]$11.655[/td]	[td]-11.23%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]9.3%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRF     [/td]"	[td]08-07-2015[/td]	[td]04-09-2015[/td]	[td]$1.857[/td]	[td]$1.678[/td]	[td]-9.65%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]8.64%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]UBN     [/td]"	[td]31-07-2015[/td]	[td]04-09-2015[/td]	[td]$1.347[/td]	[td]$0.828[/td]	[td]-38.48%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.03%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]LOV     [/td]"	[td]07-07-2015[/td]	[td]22-09-2015[/td]	[td]$3.334[/td]	[td]$2.949[/td]	[td]-11.54%​[/td]	[td]1.22%​​[/td]	"[td]5.34%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ASZ2[/td]"	[td]23-07-2015[/td]	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]$1.011[/td]	[td]$0.959[/td]	[td]-5.17%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]5%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SFR     [/td]"	[td]29-06-2015[/td]	[td]07-10-2015[/td]	[td]$5.687[/td]	[td]$6.083[/td]	[td]6.98%​[/td]	[td]1.76%​​[/td]	"[td]5.57%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]YOW     [/td]"	[td]01-07-2015[/td]	[td]30-10-2015[/td]	[td]$1.021[/td]	[td]$1.154[/td]	[td]12.98%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.43%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APE2[/td]"	[td]21-07-2015[/td]	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]$10.181[/td]	[td]$10.728[/td]	[td]5.38%​[/td]	[td]1.18%​​[/td]	"[td]6.87%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPD     [/td]"	[td]27-07-2015[/td]	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]$1.111[/td]	[td]$1.044[/td]	[td]-6.07%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.46%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SMX     [/td]"	[td]10-09-2015[/td]	[td]18-11-2015[/td]	[td]$4.746[/td]	[td]$3.305[/td]	[td]-30.37%​[/td]	[td]2.11%​​[/td]	"[td]4.58%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]1PG     [/td]"	[td]31-08-2015[/td]	[td]25-11-2015[/td]	[td]$4.386[/td]	[td]$3.108[/td]	[td]-29.14%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]2.68%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AJX     [/td]"	[td]23-09-2015[/td]	[td]11-12-2015[/td]	[td]$1.096[/td]	[td]$0.759[/td]	[td]-30.81%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]0.7%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EHE     [/td]"	[td]18-11-2015[/td]	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]$7.708[/td]	[td]$7.272[/td]	[td]-5.66%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]0.34%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SDA     [/td]"	[td]21-07-2015[/td]	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]$3.364[/td]	[td]$4.146[/td]	[td]23.21%​[/td]	[td]0.89%​​[/td]	"[td]1.86%​[/td]
[/tr]"
**

* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current open trades (actual executed) for the *Private Portfolio*:



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	[td]Running Portfolio Return 
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]EVT(AHD)[/td]"	[td]02-12-2014[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$11.374[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]27.79%​[/td]	[td]4.66%​​[/td]	"[td]3.92%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRX     [/td]"	[td]19-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$34.714[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]11.54%​[/td]	[td]0.58%​​[/td]	"[td]4.71%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TWE     [/td]"	[td]28-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$6.517[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]20.96%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.08%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ACX     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.705[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]8.52%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APO     [/td]"	[td]25-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$5.386[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]12.62%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]7.49%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RIC     [/td]"	[td]11-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.602[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-8.31%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.93%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BGA     [/td]"	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.067[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]5.32%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]7.28%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BAL     [/td]"	[td]23-06-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.255[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]213.44%​[/td]	[td]0.67%​​[/td]	"[td]21.64%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ELD     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.155[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]13.51%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]22.67%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CKF     [/td]"	[td]05-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.434[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]45.22%​[/td]	[td]1.75%​​[/td]	"[td]26.27%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR     [/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.315[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]6.28%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]26.76%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RRL     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.767[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]32.33%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]29.33%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]WEB     [/td]"	[td]07-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.396[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]26.83%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]31.5%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]30-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.803[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]1.95%​[/td]	[td]1.78%​​[/td]	"[td]31.8%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SAR     [/td]"	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$0.556[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]20.5%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]33.49%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CTD     [/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$13.243[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-4.94%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]33.08%​[/td]
[/tr]"

**

* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current closed trades (actual executed) for the *SMSF Portfolio*:



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	[td]Running Portfolio Return
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]PDN[/td]"	[td]30-07-2013[/td]	[td]07-08-2013[/td]	[td]$0.976[/td]	[td]$0.664[/td]	[td]-32.01%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AWE1[/td]"	[td]24-07-2013[/td]	[td]21-10-2013[/td]	[td]$1.444[/td]	[td]$1.276[/td]	[td]-11.67%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2.72%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRX[/td]"	[td]09-08-2013[/td]	[td]08-11-2013[/td]	[td]$13.114[/td]	[td]$12.086[/td]	[td]-7.84%​[/td]	[td]0.92%​​[/td]	"[td]-3.14%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]WOR[/td]"	[td]17-09-2013[/td]	[td]21-11-2013[/td]	[td]$23.29[/td]	[td]$15.64[/td]	[td]-32.84%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.13%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AIO[/td]"	[td]20-09-2013[/td]	[td]13-12-2013[/td]	[td]$6.009[/td]	[td]$5.501[/td]	[td]-8.44%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.63%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MLD[/td]"	[td]17-10-2013[/td]	[td]27-12-2013[/td]	[td]$2.647[/td]	[td]$2.513[/td]	[td]-5.06%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.92%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BLD[/td]"	[td]12-09-2013[/td]	[td]02-01-2014[/td]	[td]$4.791[/td]	[td]$4.769[/td]	[td]-0.45%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.95%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BKW[/td]"	[td]24-09-2013[/td]	[td]20-01-2014[/td]	[td]$13.497[/td]	[td]$14.183[/td]	[td]5.09%​[/td]	[td]2%​​[/td]	"[td]-5.53%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DOW[/td]"	[td]12-09-2013[/td]	[td]07-02-2014[/td]	[td]$4.69[/td]	[td]$4.8[/td]	[td]2.35%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.39%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RIO2[/td]"	[td]02-12-2013[/td]	[td]12-02-2014[/td]	[td]$66.278[/td]	[td]$67.752[/td]	[td]2.22%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.26%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MGX2[/td]"	[td]21-10-2013[/td]	[td]28-02-2014[/td]	[td]$0.849[/td]	[td]$0.87[/td]	[td]2.41%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.12%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SGM[/td]"	[td]12-11-2013[/td]	[td]04-03-2014[/td]	[td]$10.004[/td]	[td]$9.626[/td]	[td]-3.78%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.34%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BCI[/td]"	[td]02-09-2013[/td]	[td]11-03-2014[/td]	[td]$4.489[/td]	[td]$4.551[/td]	[td]1.39%​[/td]	[td]10.47%​​[/td]	"[td]-4.64%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]NST1[/td]"	[td]18-03-2014[/td]	[td]11-06-2014[/td]	[td]$1.263[/td]	[td]$1.178[/td]	[td]-6.74%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.04%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MYX     [/td]"	[td]28-03-2014[/td]	[td]12-06-2014[/td]	[td]$0.969[/td]	[td]$0.871[/td]	[td]-10.17%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DMP[/td]"	[td]01-04-2014[/td]	[td]16-06-2014[/td]	[td]$19.985[/td]	[td]$19.824[/td]	[td]-0.8%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.7%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR     [/td]"	[td]04-03-2014[/td]	[td]16-06-2014[/td]	[td]$3.636[/td]	[td]$3.893[/td]	[td]7.07%​[/td]	[td]1.51%​​[/td]	"[td]-5.19%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CNU[/td]"	[td]04-04-2014[/td]	[td]10-07-2014[/td]	[td]$1.661[/td]	[td]$1.594[/td]	[td]-4.04%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.43%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SKC     [/td]"	[td]14-03-2014[/td]	[td]15-07-2014[/td]	[td]$3.737[/td]	[td]$3.513[/td]	[td]-5.97%​[/td]	[td]2.1%​​[/td]	"[td]-5.66%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CSR[/td]"	[td]04-04-2014[/td]	[td]23-07-2014[/td]	[td]$3.614[/td]	[td]$3.658[/td]	[td]1.21%​[/td]	[td]1.38%​​[/td]	"[td]-5.5%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AWE2[/td]"	[td]06-03-2014[/td]	[td]16-09-2014[/td]	[td]$1.555[/td]	[td]$1.714[/td]	[td]10.24%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-4.9%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]NST2[/td]"	[td]10-07-2014[/td]	[td]07-10-2014[/td]	[td]$1.583[/td]	[td]$1.182[/td]	[td]-25.33%​[/td]	[td]1.58%​​[/td]	"[td]-6.31%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DUE     [/td]"	[td]20-06-2014[/td]	[td]13-10-2014[/td]	[td]$2.481[/td]	[td]$2.369[/td]	[td]-4.53%​[/td]	[td]3.43%​​[/td]	"[td]-6.38%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SEA[/td]"	[td]23-07-2014[/td]	[td]14-10-2014[/td]	[td]$1.289[/td]	[td]$1.096[/td]	[td]-14.91%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-7.25%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TTS[/td]"	[td]02-07-2014[/td]	[td]20-10-2014[/td]	[td]$3.428[/td]	[td]$3.135[/td]	[td]-8.54%​[/td]	[td]1.6%​​[/td]	"[td]-7.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]VOC[/td]"	[td]04-07-2014[/td]	[td]23-10-2014[/td]	[td]$5.547[/td]	[td]$5.323[/td]	[td]-4.03%​[/td]	[td]0.18%​​[/td]	"[td]-7.87%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APN[/td]"	[td]23-05-2014[/td]	[td]13-11-2014[/td]	[td]$0.75[/td]	[td]$0.725[/td]	[td]-3.33%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-8.07%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]QUB[/td]"	[td]24-03-2014[/td]	[td]21-11-2014[/td]	[td]$2.235[/td]	[td]$2.215[/td]	[td]-0.88%​[/td]	[td]1.21%​​[/td]	"[td]-8.05%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AAD[/td]"	[td]24-07-2013[/td]	[td]10-12-2014[/td]	[td]$1.766[/td]	[td]$2.873[/td]	[td]62.68%​[/td]	[td]7.36%​​[/td]	"[td]-4.02%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IFM     [/td]"	[td]04-08-2014[/td]	[td]24-12-2014[/td]	[td]$0.884[/td]	[td]$1.196[/td]	[td]35.24%​[/td]	[td]2.14%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.78%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TPM     [/td]"	[td]04-11-2014[/td]	[td]13-01-2015[/td]	[td]$7.462[/td]	[td]$6.428[/td]	[td]-13.86%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2.63%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SHV     [/td]"	[td]13-10-2014[/td]	[td]19-01-2015[/td]	[td]$5.988[/td]	[td]$6.071[/td]	[td]1.38%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2.55%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TSE     [/td]"	[td]15-07-2014[/td]	[td]12-02-2015[/td]	[td]$1.281[/td]	[td]$1.569[/td]	[td]22.47%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-1.18%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRX     [/td]"	[td]23-10-2014[/td]	[td]18-03-2015[/td]	[td]$23.744[/td]	[td]$19.456[/td]	[td]-18.06%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2.29%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MNY     [/td]"	[td]12-02-2015[/td]	[td]31-03-2015[/td]	[td]$1.752[/td]	[td]$1.468[/td]	[td]-16.25%​[/td]	[td]1.43%​​[/td]	"[td]-3.2%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SPK(TEL)[/td]"	[td]02-10-2013[/td]	[td]10-04-2015[/td]	[td]$2.043[/td]	[td]$2.867[/td]	[td]40.32%​[/td]	[td]11.83%​​[/td]	"[td]-0.04%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ABP     [/td]"	[td]13-01-2015[/td]	[td]14-04-2015[/td]	[td]$3.154[/td]	[td]$2.926[/td]	[td]-7.24%​[/td]	[td]2.69%​​[/td]	"[td]-0.33%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TLS     [/td]"	[td]19-01-2015[/td]	[td]12-05-2015[/td]	[td]$6.217[/td]	[td]$6.023[/td]	[td]-3.12%​[/td]	[td]2.41%​​[/td]	"[td]-0.37%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CTX[/td]"	[td]04-04-2014[/td]	[td]15-05-2015[/td]	[td]$21.775[/td]	[td]$32.157[/td]	[td]47.67%​[/td]	[td]3.21%​​[/td]	"[td]2.8%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]WFD     [/td]"	[td]18-12-2014[/td]	[td]15-05-2015[/td]	[td]$8.798[/td]	[td]$9.262[/td]	[td]5.28%​[/td]	[td]1.8%​​[/td]	"[td]3.26%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AJX[/td]"	[td]11-12-2014[/td]	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]$0.529[/td]	[td]$0.526[/td]	[td]-0.47%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]3.23%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TAH     [/td]"	[td]29-10-2014[/td]	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]$3.997[/td]	[td]$4.833[/td]	[td]20.9%​[/td]	[td]10.01%​​[/td]	"[td]5.22%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CTD[/td]"	[td]16-09-2014[/td]	[td]28-05-2015[/td]	[td]$7.389[/td]	[td]$12.091[/td]	[td]63.63%​[/td]	[td]0.81%​​[/td]	"[td]9.46%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]REC[/td]"	[td]27-11-2014[/td]	[td]28-05-2015[/td]	[td]$6.51[/td]	[td]$7.7[/td]	[td]18.26%​[/td]	[td]1.38%​​[/td]	"[td]10.8%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TNE     [/td]"	[td]18-03-2015[/td]	[td]10-06-2015[/td]	[td]$3.907[/td]	[td]$3.603[/td]	[td]-7.8%​[/td]	[td]0.55%​​[/td]	"[td]10.3%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]FLT     [/td]"	[td]15-05-2015[/td]	[td]24-06-2015[/td]	[td]$46.901[/td]	[td]$34.279[/td]	[td]-26.91%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]8.44%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AOG     [/td]"	[td]13-04-2015[/td]	[td]29-06-2015[/td]	[td]$2.81[/td]	[td]$2.61[/td]	[td]-7.12%​[/td]	[td]1.78%​​[/td]	"[td]8.08%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TFC     [/td]"	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]01-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.896[/td]	[td]$1.544[/td]	[td]-18.61%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.83%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ASB     [/td]"	[td]16-06-2014[/td]	[td]07-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.256[/td]	[td]$1.759[/td]	[td]40.12%​[/td]	[td]0.8%​​[/td]	"[td]9.56%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]API     [/td]"	[td]20-11-2014[/td]	[td]07-07-2015[/td]	[td]$0.899[/td]	[td]$1.551[/td]	[td]72.51%​[/td]	[td]2.22%​​[/td]	"[td]14.67%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]OZL     [/td]"	[td]12-05-2015[/td]	[td]09-07-2015[/td]	[td]$4.735[/td]	[td]$3.685[/td]	[td]-22.19%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]13.08%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DLS     [/td]"	[td]14-04-2015[/td]	[td]10-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.104[/td]	[td]$1.026[/td]	[td]-7.09%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]12.58%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ALU     [/td]"	[td]15-05-2015[/td]	[td]10-07-2015[/td]	[td]$5.038[/td]	[td]$4.222[/td]	[td]-16.18%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]11.44%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ISD     [/td]"	[td]04-06-2015[/td]	[td]10-07-2015[/td]	[td]$3.683[/td]	[td]$3.427[/td]	[td]-6.93%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]10.96%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EPW     [/td]"	[td]02-06-2015[/td]	[td]13-07-2015[/td]	[td]$2.549[/td]	[td]$2.161[/td]	[td]-15.21%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]9.91%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BKW     [/td]"	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]22-07-2015[/td]	[td]$15.021[/td]	[td]$14.859[/td]	[td]-1.08%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]9.83%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]QAN     [/td]"	[td]30-10-2014[/td]	[td]24-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.652[/td]	[td]$3.64[/td]	[td]120.39%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]18.1%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]OGC     [/td]"	[td]29-06-2015[/td]	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]$3.323[/td]	[td]$2.357[/td]	[td]-29.06%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]15.95%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CCP     [/td]"	[td]27-07-2015[/td]	[td]25-08-2015[/td]	[td]$13.177[/td]	[td]$11.663[/td]	[td]-11.49%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]15.12%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRF     [/td]"	[td]09-07-2015[/td]	[td]04-09-2015[/td]	[td]$1.862[/td]	[td]$1.673[/td]	[td]-10.1%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]14.39%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]UBN     [/td]"	[td]31-07-2015[/td]	[td]04-09-2015[/td]	[td]$1.35[/td]	[td]$0.825[/td]	[td]-38.85%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]11.61%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AIA     [/td]"	[td]24-12-2014[/td]	[td]10-09-2015[/td]	[td]$4.198[/td]	[td]$4.352[/td]	[td]3.66%​[/td]	[td]1.69%​​[/td]	"[td]11.99%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]LOV     [/td]"	[td]24-06-2015[/td]	[td]22-09-2015[/td]	[td]$3.525[/td]	[td]$2.945[/td]	[td]-16.44%​[/td]	[td]1.15%​​[/td]	"[td]10.92%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ASZ     [/td]"	[td]23-07-2015[/td]	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]$1.014[/td]	[td]$0.954[/td]	[td]-5.85%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]10.51%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]JHX     [/td]"	[td]04-06-2015[/td]	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]$16.898[/td]	[td]$17.322[/td]	[td]2.51%​[/td]	[td]3.66%​​[/td]	"[td]10.94%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APE     [/td]"	[td]21-07-2015[/td]	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]$10.207[/td]	[td]$10.703[/td]	[td]4.85%​[/td]	[td]1.18%​​[/td]	"[td]11.36%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MMS     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]03-11-2015[/td]	[td]$14.258[/td]	[td]$12.773[/td]	[td]-10.42%​[/td]	[td]1.89%​​[/td]	"[td]10.76%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPD     [/td]"	[td]27-07-2015[/td]	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]$1.134[/td]	[td]$1.036[/td]	[td]-8.65%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]10.16%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPP     [/td]"	[td]03-11-2015[/td]	[td]13-11-2015[/td]	[td]$3.864[/td]	[td]$3.836[/td]	[td]-0.74%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]10.11%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SMX     [/td]"	[td]10-09-2015[/td]	[td]18-11-2015[/td]	[td]$4.756[/td]	[td]$3.294[/td]	[td]-30.74%​[/td]	[td]2.1%​​[/td]	"[td]8.14%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]1PG     [/td]"	[td]31-08-2015[/td]	[td]25-11-2015[/td]	[td]$4.425[/td]	[td]$3.241[/td]	[td]-26.77%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.33%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AJX     [/td]"	[td]23-09-2015[/td]	[td]11-12-2015[/td]	[td]$1.099[/td]	[td]$0.756[/td]	[td]-31.2%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]4.26%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EHE     [/td]"	[td]13-11-2015[/td]	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]$7.497[/td]	[td]$7.253[/td]	[td]-3.25%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]4.05%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SDA     [/td]"	[td]21-07-2015[/td]	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]$3.372[/td]	[td]$4.138[/td]	[td]22.69%​[/td]	[td]0.89%​​[/td]	"[td]5.58%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AMA     [/td]"	[td]10-06-2015[/td]	[td]08-01-2016[/td]	[td]$0.618[/td]	[td]$0.897[/td]	[td]45.25%​[/td]	[td]2.75%​​[/td]	"[td]8.75%​[/td]
[/tr]"

**

* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current open trades (actual executed) for the *SMSF Portfolio*:



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	[td]Running Portfolio Return 
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]BAP     [/td]"	[td]31-03-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.262[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]23.77%​[/td]	[td]1.44%​​[/td]	"[td]10.46%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SIQ     [/td]"	[td]01-07-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.159[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]128.38%​[/td]	[td]3.66%​​[/td]	"[td]19.58%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ELD     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.164[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]13.03%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]20.55%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CKF     [/td]"	[td]06-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.401[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]46.39%​[/td]	[td]1.76%​​[/td]	"[td]24.18%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TWE     [/td]"	[td]28-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$6.532[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]20.45%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]25.77%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR2[/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.316[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]5.99%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]26.24%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RRL     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.771[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]31.75%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]28.74%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPH     [/td]"	[td]05-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.326[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]17.72%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]30.17%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.779[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]2.56%​[/td]	[td]1.8%​​[/td]	"[td]30.52%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SAR     [/td]"	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$0.557[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]19.85%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]32.14%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]HUB     [/td]"	[td]19-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.503[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]24.36%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]34.15%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]OML     [/td]"	[td]26-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.166[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]3.33%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]34.43%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BGA     [/td]"	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.086[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]4.77%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]34.83%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SKC2[/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.175[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-6.72%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]34.27%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SUL     [/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$11.552[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-8.61%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]33.54%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ALL     [/td]"	[td]08-01-2016[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$9.683[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-0.79%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]33.48%​[/td]
[/tr]"

**

* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## aramz

Thanks for posting Trendnomics.

That's a pretty simple system and seems quite robust with solid 23% per annum returns on the ASX through some turbulent years. What exit strategy did you employ for this system and what risk factor did you use?

Cheers

Luke


----------



## Trendnomics

aramz said:


> Thanks for posting Trendnomics.
> 
> That's a pretty simple system and seems quite robust with solid 23% per annum returns on the ASX through some turbulent years. What exit strategy did you employ for this system and what risk factor did you use?
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Luke




Hey Luke,

The actual entry and exit conditions of my system, are proprietary in nature - the entry condition is based on two metrics of the trend and the exit condition is based on a single metric (very simple to avoid curve fitting and keep it as robust as possible). I don't use any standard indicators - everything has been coded from scratch (very unique system).

As for risk, I deploy 16 equally sized positions in the market, all with a fixed stop-loss at -30% entry price (that gives me a capital risk of 1.875% per position). I don't use trialing stops and a majority of my trades are exited prior to hitting the -30% entry price stop-loss, due to my primary exit criteria (i.e. confirmation that the trend is down).


----------



## Newt

Thanks for sharing.
The 500% winner was certainly handy initially getting into profit.

I'm curious why the first 2 trades in RMD and SKE were only for 1 day.  Perhaps a market filter?


----------



## Trendnomics

Newt said:


> Thanks for sharing.
> The 500% winner was certainly handy initially getting into profit.
> 
> I'm curious why the first 2 trades in RMD and SKE were only for 1 day.  Perhaps a market filter?




It was quite ironic, Forge (FGE) was a bigger loser, than the biggest loss recorded in prior back-testing - similarly, LNG was a bigger winner, than the biggest win recorded in prior back-testing. But yes, it was very handy indeed.

The first two trades were entered by mistake - I had a coding issue on one of the indicators (wrong time frame) and they were terminated the next day after I realised the mistake (should probably remove them from the trading record, but I like to keep warts-and-all).


----------



## Trendnomics

Current open trades (actual executed) for the *Private Portfolio* - Update Week #1:

It was a turbulent week on the markets - open profit slightly reduced.



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	[td]Running Portfolio Return (16 Positions)[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]EVT(AHD)[/td]"	[td]02-12-2014[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$11.374[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]37.81%​[/td]	[td]4.66%​​[/td]	"[td]4.56%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRX     [/td]"	[td]19-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$34.714[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]4.25%​[/td]	[td]0.58%​​[/td]	"[td]4.87%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TWE     [/td]"	[td]28-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$6.517[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]18.81%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.11%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ACX     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.705[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]9.37%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.73%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APO     [/td]"	[td]25-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$5.386[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]7.79%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]7.25%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RIC     [/td]"	[td]11-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.602[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-5.81%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.86%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BGA     [/td]"	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.067[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-3.17%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BAL     [/td]"	[td]23-06-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.255[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]202.16%​[/td]	[td]0.67%​​[/td]	"[td]20.17%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ELD     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.155[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]14.47%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]21.26%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CKF     [/td]"	[td]05-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.434[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]47.84%​[/td]	[td]1.75%​​[/td]	"[td]25.01%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR     [/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.315[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]7.67%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]25.61%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RRL     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.767[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]30.63%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]28.02%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]WEB     [/td]"	[td]07-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.396[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]26.6%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]30.15%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]30-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.803[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-3.05%​[/td]	[td]1.78%​​[/td]	"[td]30.04%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SAR     [/td]"	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$0.556[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]25%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]32.08%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CTD     [/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$13.243[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-6.98%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]31.5%​[/td]
[/tr]"

**

* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current open trades (actual executed) for the *SMSF Portfolio* - Update Week #1:

It was a turbulent week on the markets - open profit slightly reduced.



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	"[td]Running Portfolio Return 
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BAP     [/td]"	[td]31-03-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.262[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]19.48%​[/td]	[td]1.44%​​[/td]	"[td]10.17%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SIQ     [/td]"	[td]01-07-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.159[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]118.65%​[/td]	[td]3.66%​​[/td]	"[td]18.59%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ELD     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.164[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]13.99%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]19.63%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CKF     [/td]"	[td]06-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.401[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]49.04%​[/td]	[td]1.76%​​[/td]	"[td]23.43%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TWE     [/td]"	[td]28-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$6.532[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]18.3%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]24.84%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR2[/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.316[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]7.38%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]25.42%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RRL     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.771[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]30.05%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]27.77%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPH     [/td]"	[td]05-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.326[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]19.63%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]29.34%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.779[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-2.48%​[/td]	[td]1.8%​​[/td]	"[td]29.28%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SAR     [/td]"	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$0.557[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]24.34%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]31.25%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]HUB     [/td]"	[td]19-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.503[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]20.08%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]32.9%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]OML     [/td]"	[td]26-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.166[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]5.01%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]33.31%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BGA     [/td]"	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.086[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-3.7%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]33.01%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SKC2[/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.175[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-6.95%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]32.43%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SUL     [/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$11.552[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-12.07%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]31.43%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ALL     [/td]"	[td]08-01-2016[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$9.683[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-3.68%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]31.13%​[/td]
[/tr]"


**

* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current open trades (actual executed) for the* Private Portfolio* - Update Week #2:

Another turbulent week on the markets - but luckily the trends were my friends (positive week):



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	[td]Running Portfolio Return 
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]EVT(AHD)[/td]"	[td]02-12-2014[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$11.374[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]35.44%​[/td]	[td]4.66%​​[/td]	"[td]4.41%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRX     [/td]"	[td]19-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$34.714[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]6.99%​[/td]	[td]0.58%​​[/td]	"[td]4.9%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TWE     [/td]"	[td]28-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$6.517[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]42.29%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]7.67%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ACX     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.705[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]6.82%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]8.13%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APO     [/td]"	[td]25-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$5.386[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]8.53%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]8.71%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RIC     [/td]"	[td]11-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.602[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-10.18%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]8.02%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BGA     [/td]"	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.067[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-0.34%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]8%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BAL     [/td]"	[td]23-06-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.255[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]223.07%​[/td]	[td]0.67%​​[/td]	"[td]23.1%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ELD     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.155[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]13.03%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]24.1%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CKF     [/td]"	[td]05-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.434[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]48.72%​[/td]	[td]1.75%​​[/td]	"[td]28.01%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR     [/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.315[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]10.68%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]28.87%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RRL     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.767[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]35.73%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]31.75%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]WEB     [/td]"	[td]07-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.396[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]25.69%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]33.86%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]30-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.803[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]0.16%​[/td]	[td]1.78%​​[/td]	"[td]34.03%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SAR     [/td]"	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$0.556[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]31.3%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]36.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CTD     [/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$13.243[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-7.36%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]36.02%​[/td]
[/tr]"



**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current open trades (actual executed) for the *SMSF Portfolio* - Update Week #2:

Another turbulent week on the markets - but luckily the trends were my friends (positive week):



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	"[td]Running Portfolio Return 
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BAP     [/td]"	[td]31-03-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.262[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]23.77%​[/td]	[td]1.44%​​[/td]	"[td]10.46%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SIQ     [/td]"	[td]01-07-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.159[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]131.16%​[/td]	[td]3.66%​​[/td]	"[td]19.77%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ELD     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.164[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]12.55%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]20.71%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CKF     [/td]"	[td]06-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.401[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]49.92%​[/td]	[td]1.76%​​[/td]	"[td]24.61%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TWE     [/td]"	[td]28-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$6.532[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]41.73%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]27.86%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR2[/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.316[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]10.39%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]28.69%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RRL     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.771[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]35.13%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]31.52%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPH     [/td]"	[td]05-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.326[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]26.04%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]33.66%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.779[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]0.76%​[/td]	[td]1.8%​​[/td]	"[td]33.87%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SAR     [/td]"	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$0.557[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]30.62%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]36.43%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]HUB     [/td]"	[td]19-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.503[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]13.8%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]37.61%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]OML     [/td]"	[td]26-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.166[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]5.01%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]38.04%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BGA     [/td]"	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.086[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-0.87%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]37.96%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SKC2[/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.175[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]0.47%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]38%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SUL     [/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$11.552[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-12.93%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]36.89%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ALL     [/td]"	[td]08-01-2016[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$9.683[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]0.76%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]36.95%​[/td]
[/tr]"


**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current open trades (actual executed) for the *Private Portfolio* - Update Week #3:

Flat week for this portfolio - markets seem to be range-bound - eligible for RRL dividend (added to returns):



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	[td]Running Portfolio Return 
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]EVT(AHD)[/td]"	[td]02-12-2014[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$11.374[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]33.5%​[/td]	[td]4.66%​​[/td]	"[td]4.29%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRX     [/td]"	[td]19-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$34.714[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]8.26%​[/td]	[td]0.58%​​[/td]	"[td]4.86%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TWE     [/td]"	[td]28-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$6.517[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]38.92%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]7.41%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ACX     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.705[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]6.18%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]7.83%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APO     [/td]"	[td]25-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$5.386[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]11.32%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]8.59%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RIC     [/td]"	[td]11-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.602[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-7.99%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]8.04%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BGA     [/td]"	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.067[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-0.19%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]8.03%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BAL     [/td]"	[td]23-06-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.255[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]224.72%​[/td]	[td]0.67%​​[/td]	"[td]23.25%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ELD     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.155[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]12.79%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]24.24%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CKF     [/td]"	[td]05-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.434[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]51.92%​[/td]	[td]1.75%​​[/td]	"[td]28.4%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR     [/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.315[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]11.38%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]29.32%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RRL     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.767[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]32.9%​[/td]	[td]2.26%​​[/td]	"[td]32.16%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]WEB     [/td]"	[td]07-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.396[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]22.05%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]33.98%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]30-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.803[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]4.09%​[/td]	[td]1.78%​​[/td]	"[td]34.47%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SAR     [/td]"	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$0.556[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]29.5%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]36.95%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CTD     [/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$13.243[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-10.23%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]36.07%​[/td]
[/tr]"


**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current open trades (actual executed) for the *SMSF Portfolio* - Update Week #3:

Small weekly gain for this portfolio - eligible for RRL dividend (added to returns):



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	"[td]Running Portfolio Return 
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BAP     [/td]"	[td]31-03-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.262[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]28.37%​[/td]	[td]1.44%​​[/td]	"[td]10.77%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SIQ     [/td]"	[td]01-07-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.159[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]126.53%​[/td]	[td]3.66%​​[/td]	"[td]19.79%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ELD     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.164[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]12.31%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]20.71%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CKF     [/td]"	[td]06-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.401[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]53.15%​[/td]	[td]1.76%​​[/td]	"[td]24.85%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TWE     [/td]"	[td]28-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$6.532[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]38.36%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]27.85%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR2[/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.316[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]11.09%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]28.73%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RRL     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.771[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]32.31%​[/td]	[td]2.26%​​[/td]	"[td]31.51%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPH     [/td]"	[td]05-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.326[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]20.72%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]33.22%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.779[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]4.71%​[/td]	[td]1.8%​​[/td]	"[td]33.76%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SAR     [/td]"	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$0.557[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]28.82%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]36.17%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]HUB     [/td]"	[td]19-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.503[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]10.94%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]37.1%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]OML     [/td]"	[td]26-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.166[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]10.78%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]38.02%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BGA     [/td]"	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.086[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-0.73%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]37.96%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SKC2[/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.175[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]1.19%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]38.06%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SUL     [/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$11.552[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-12.15%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]37.01%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ALL     [/td]"	[td]08-01-2016[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$9.683[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]5.51%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]37.48%​[/td]
[/tr]"


**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

In relation to the *Private Portfolio:*

I've done a back check of all the train-wrecks I have escaped since trading my system live - criteria is current closing price to be 50% less than my executed sell price:



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Current Close (29/01/16)[/td]	[td]% Loss (Since Sell)[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]AWE     [/td]"	[td]24-07-2013[/td]	[td]21-10-2013[/td]	[td]$1.443[/td]	[td]$1.282[/td]	[td]$0.515[/td]	[td]-59.83%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]CCV     [/td]"	[td]12-09-2013[/td]	[td]29-10-2013[/td]	[td]$1.259[/td]	[td]$1.086[/td]	[td]$0.525[/td]	[td]-51.66%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]UGL     [/td]"	[td]13-09-2013[/td]	[td]20-11-2013[/td]	[td]$8.126[/td]	[td]$6.832[/td]	[td]$2.2[/td]	[td]-67.8%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]BDR     [/td]"	[td]02-10-2013[/td]	[td]04-12-2013[/td]	[td]$0.837[/td]	[td]$0.673[/td]	[td]$0.155[/td]	[td]-76.97%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]TTN     [/td]"	[td]15-10-2013[/td]	[td]06-12-2013[/td]	[td]$3.257[/td]	[td]$2.483[/td]	[td]$0.037[/td]	[td]-98.51%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]CDD     [/td]"	[td]24-10-2013[/td]	[td]06-02-2014[/td]	[td]$6.806[/td]	[td]$6.084[/td]	[td]$0.94[/td]	[td]-84.55%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]AGO     [/td]"	[td]21-10-2013[/td]	[td]06-02-2014[/td]	[td]$1.007[/td]	[td]$1.003[/td]	[td]$0.016[/td]	[td]-98.4%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]BCI     [/td]"	[td]02-09-2013[/td]	[td]11-03-2014[/td]	[td]$4.469[/td]	[td]$4.57[/td]	[td]$0.08[/td]	[td]-98.25%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]MML     [/td]"	[td]14-03-2014[/td]	[td]23-04-2014[/td]	[td]$2.574[/td]	[td]$1.803[/td]	[td]$0.38[/td]	[td]-78.92%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]DLS     [/td]"	[td]30-01-2014[/td]	[td]04-06-2014[/td]	[td]$1.468[/td]	[td]$1.527[/td]	[td]$0.485[/td]	[td]-68.24%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]CAJ     [/td]"	[td]01-04-2014[/td]	[td]06-06-2014[/td]	[td]$0.611[/td]	[td]$0.444[/td]	[td]$0.205[/td]	[td]-53.83%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]PAN     [/td]"	[td]04-06-2014[/td]	[td]24-09-2014[/td]	[td]$0.677[/td]	[td]$0.648[/td]	[td]$0.082[/td]	[td]-87.35%[/td][/tr]

"[tr]
 [td]WHC     [/td]"	[td]25-08-2014[/td]	[td]30-10-2014[/td]	[td]$1.969[/td]	[td]$1.537[/td]	[td]$0.41[/td]	[td]-73.32%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]LNG     [/td]"	[td]28-03-2014[/td]	[td]14-11-2014[/td]	[td]$0.576[/td]	[td]$3.536[/td]	[td]$0.64[/td]	[td]-81.9%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]CAJ     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2014[/td]	[td]02-12-2014[/td]	[td]$0.681[/td]	[td]$0.589[/td]	[td]$0.205[/td]	[td]-65.2%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]IGO     [/td]"	[td]01-05-2015[/td]	[td]28-05-2015[/td]	[td]$5.907[/td]	[td]$4.753[/td]	[td]$2.19[/td]	[td]-53.92%[/td][/tr]

**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage

The above potential outcomes would have been detrimental to a buy and hold investor (or someone without an exit strategy). Commodity related equities have been hit the hardest.

Charts for some notable trades (Green line entry - Red line exit):








*


----------



## Trendnomics

In relation to the *SMSF Portfolio*:

I've done a back check of all the train-wrecks I have escaped since trading my system live - criteria is current closing price to be 50% less than my executed sell price:



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Current Close (29/01/16)[/td]	[td]% Loss (Since Sell)[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]PDN[/td]"	[td]30-07-2013[/td]	[td]07-08-2013[/td]	[td]$0.976[/td]	[td]$0.664[/td]	[td]$0.21[/td]	[td]-68.37%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]AWE1[/td]"	[td]24-07-2013[/td]	[td]21-10-2013[/td]	[td]$1.444[/td]	[td]$1.276[/td]	[td]$0.515[/td]	[td]-59.64%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]WOR[/td]"	[td]17-09-2013[/td]	[td]21-11-2013[/td]	[td]$23.29[/td]	[td]$15.64[/td]	[td]$3.39[/td]	[td]-78.32%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]MLD[/td]"	[td]17-10-2013[/td]	[td]27-12-2013[/td]	[td]$2.647[/td]	[td]$2.513[/td]	[td]$0.7[/td]	[td]-72.14%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]MGX2[/td]"	[td]21-10-2013[/td]	[td]28-02-2014[/td]	[td]$0.849[/td]	[td]$0.87[/td]	[td]$0.185[/td]	[td]-78.74%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]BCI[/td]"	[td]02-09-2013[/td]	[td]11-03-2014[/td]	[td]$4.489[/td]	[td]$4.551[/td]	[td]$0.08[/td]	[td]-98.24%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]AWE2[/td]"	[td]06-03-2014[/td]	[td]16-09-2014[/td]	[td]$1.555[/td]	[td]$1.714[/td]	[td]$0.515[/td]	[td]-69.95%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]SEA[/td]"	[td]23-07-2014[/td]	[td]14-10-2014[/td]	[td]$1.289[/td]	[td]$1.096[/td]	[td]$0.12[/td]	[td]-89.05%[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]DLS     [/td]"	[td]14-04-2015[/td]	[td]10-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.104[/td]	[td]$1.026[/td]	[td]$0.485[/td]	[td]-52.73%[/td][/tr]
**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage

Charts for some notable trades (Green line entry - Red line exit):








*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current open trades (actual executed) for the *Private Portfolio* - Update Week #4:

A volatile week - portfolio lost 4.9% of it's value - luckily BAL.asx made a large upward swing today.



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	[td]Running Portfolio Return 
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]EVT(AHD)[/td]"	[td]02-12-2014[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$11.374[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]29.19%​[/td]	[td]4.66%​​[/td]	"[td]4.01%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRX     [/td]"	[td]19-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$34.714[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]2.7%​[/td]	[td]0.58%​​[/td]	"[td]4.22%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TWE     [/td]"	[td]28-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$6.517[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]35.54%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.54%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ACX     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.705[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-8.7%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]5.96%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APO     [/td]"	[td]25-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$5.386[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]4.26%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.24%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RIC     [/td]"	[td]11-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.602[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-10.8%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]5.52%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BGA     [/td]"	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.067[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-7.13%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]5.05%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BAL     [/td]"	[td]23-06-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.255[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]200.75%​[/td]	[td]0.67%​​[/td]	"[td]18.28%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ELD     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.155[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]8.94%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]18.94%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CKF     [/td]"	[td]05-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.434[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]42.02%​[/td]	[td]1.75%​​[/td]	"[td]22.19%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR     [/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.315[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]0.95%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]22.26%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RRL     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.767[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]37.43%​[/td]	[td]2.26%​​[/td]	"[td]25.3%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]WEB     [/td]"	[td]07-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.396[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]15%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]26.47%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]30-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.803[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]5.16%​[/td]	[td]1.78%​​[/td]	"[td]27.02%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SAR     [/td]"	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$0.556[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]44.8%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]30.58%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CTD     [/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$13.243[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-13.62%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]29.47%​[/td]
[/tr]"

**

* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current open trades (actual executed) for the *SMSF Portfolio* - Update Week #4:

Considering the overall market volatility for this week, this portfolio has done quite well.



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	"[td]Running Portfolio Return 
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BAP     [/td]"	[td]31-03-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.262[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]27.76%​[/td]	[td]1.44%​​[/td]	"[td]10.73%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SIQ     [/td]"	[td]01-07-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.159[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]110.78%​[/td]	[td]3.66%​​[/td]	"[td]18.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ELD     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.164[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]8.47%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]19.28%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CKF     [/td]"	[td]06-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.401[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]43.16%​[/td]	[td]1.76%​​[/td]	"[td]22.63%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TWE     [/td]"	[td]28-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$6.532[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]34.99%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]25.31%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR2[/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.316[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]0.66%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]25.36%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RRL     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.771[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]36.83%​[/td]	[td]2.26%​​[/td]	"[td]28.43%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPH     [/td]"	[td]05-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.326[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]15.26%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]29.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.779[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]5.79%​[/td]	[td]1.8%​​[/td]	"[td]30.27%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SAR     [/td]"	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$0.557[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]44.08%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]33.86%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]HUB     [/td]"	[td]19-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.503[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]18.08%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]35.37%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]OML     [/td]"	[td]26-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.166[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]9.34%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]36.16%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BGA     [/td]"	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.086[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-7.65%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]35.51%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SKC2[/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.175[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-0.25%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]35.48%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SUL     [/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$11.552[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-13.54%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]34.34%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ALL     [/td]"	[td]08-01-2016[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$9.683[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]2.93%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]34.58%​[/td]
[/tr]"
**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

Completed a quick Monte Carlo back-test, over the live trading period of my system (to assess possible outcomes):


ASX Period:01/07/2013 - PresentInclude Open Profits:YesInclude Dividends:NoSlippage Modeling:Random Price ExecutionNumber of Simulations:20000Maximum number of open positions:16Average Number of Trades Executed:116Minimum Profit:-14.34%Average Profit:24.45%Maximum Profit:91.56%Probability of Profit:99.38%Average percentage of winning trades:41.76%Minimum Absolute Percent Drawdown:5.07%Average Absolute Percent Drawdown:13.23%Maximum Absolute Percent Drawdown:28.34%
Monte Carlo results in graphical form:




Considering the tough trading period, the system has performed exceedingly well - many other trend-following systems have posted losses over this period.

My trade selection (multiple trade signals are generally available) have exceeded the possible average result - trade selection based on maintaining a diverse portfolio.


----------



## howardbandy

Greetings --

It appears that some of the trades overlap.  Monte Carlo analysis depends on data points being independent, which is not the case when trades are overlapping.  The result will be overly optimistic -- risk will be underestimated and profit potential overestimated.

The trade list shows some large individual trade losses.  A Monte Carlo analysis will show that when two or more of those occur close together the drawdown will exceed the tolerance of most traders.

Best,
Howard


----------



## Trendnomics

howardbandy said:


> Greetings --
> 
> It appears that some of the trades overlap.  Monte Carlo analysis depends on data points being independent, which is not the case when trades are overlapping.  The result will be overly optimistic -- risk will be underestimated and profit potential overestimated.
> 
> The trade list shows some large individual trade losses.  A Monte Carlo analysis will show that when two or more of those occur close together the drawdown will exceed the tolerance of most traders.
> 
> Best,
> Howard




Hey Howard, 

Thanks for your post.

The recent Monte Carlo back-test I posted, is a chronological possibility outcome assessment, over the period I have been trading my system live (actual executed trades) - to assess the possible outcomes and compare them to my current actual P/L. This form of Monte Carlo back-test, generates a range of profit/loss outcomes based on:


Random trade entries (when multiple entries exist on a particular day + insufficient trading capital);
"Butterfly Effect" trade path generation (i.e. one entry will have a unique exit, which then creates another unique entry, etc.);
Random price execution.
The "overlapping" in the graph, is due to the fact that there are not 20,000 unique trade paths for the short time period presented - hence, the close proximity of the data-points are due to the random price execution.

I am well aware of your work (short-term system trading) and that you prefer non-chronological Monte Carlo sequencing (i.e. trade outcomes to be shuffled in a non-chronological order). 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10432

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14235

My system is designed on long time frames, the entry conditions are based on 4 months of price data and the average open trade time is just over 7 months. The applicability and validity of non-chronological Monte Carlo testing on such a system is questionable - i.e. non-chronological trade outcome ordering would suggest that the worst outcome would be for (lets say) two major draw-downs to occur sequentially - but this would imply that the overall markets had a significant down-turn, followed by a significant (+4 month) upward run, followed by another significant down turn (I am yet to find such an event historically - system has been back-tested on NYSE, NASDAQ, ASX, NSE, SGX).

In relation to people's draw-down tolerance, I am a firm believer that robust and highly profitable systems can be found in the psychologically "un-tradeable" universe, due to most people being unable to stomach losses. I've been through a major draw-down thus far (right at the start when I went live), and I am very sure I'll experience many more - but I believe I am psychologically conditioned to stay the course.

Thanks for reading.


----------



## Trendnomics

In relation to the *Private Portfolio:*

Two trades closed today:



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td][/tr]

"[tr]
 [td]ACX     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]09-02-2016[/td]	[td]$4.705[/td]	[td]$3.875[/td]	[td]-17.63%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]30-10-2015[/td]	[td]09-02-2016[/td]	[td]$2.803[/td]	[td]$2.787[/td]	[td]-0.56%​[/td]	[td]1.78%​​[/td][/tr]

**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends







One new trade opened:



[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]VOC     [/td]"	[td]09-02-2016[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.307[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]0.11%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td][/tr]

* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends


*


----------



## Trendnomics

In relation to the *SMSF Portfolio:*

One trade closed today:



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]09-02-2016[/td]	[td]$2.779[/td]	[td]$2.781[/td]	[td]0.04%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td][/tr]

**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends




One new trade opened:



[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]VOC     [/td]"	[td]09-02-2016[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.334[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-0.52%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td][/tr]


* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends


*


----------



## Trendnomics

In relation to the *Private Portfolio*:

Two trades closed today:



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]

[/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]TGR     [/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]12-02-2016[/td]	[td]$4.315[/td]	[td]$3.815[/td]	[td]-11.58%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]WEB     [/td]"	[td]07-10-2015[/td]	[td]12-02-2016[/td]	[td]$4.396[/td]	[td]$4.565[/td]	[td]3.84%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td][/tr]

**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends




*


----------



## Trendnomics

In relation to the *SMSF Portfolio*:

One trade closed today:



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td][/tr]

"[tr]
 [td]TGR2[/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]12-02-2016[/td]	[td]$4.316[/td]	[td]$3.814[/td]	[td]-11.62%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td][/tr]

**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends


*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current closed trades (actual executed) for the *Private Portfolio* - Update Week #5:



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	[td]Running Portfolio Return[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]RMD     [/td]"	[td]08-05-2013[/td]	[td]09-05-2013[/td]	[td]$4.801[/td]	[td]$4.859[/td]	[td]1.23%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]0.08%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SKE     [/td]"	[td]08-05-2013[/td]	[td]09-05-2013[/td]	[td]$2.856[/td]	[td]$2.834[/td]	[td]-0.79%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]0.03%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DJS     [/td]"	[td]08-05-2013[/td]	[td]28-05-2013[/td]	[td]$2.906[/td]	[td]$2.594[/td]	[td]-10.76%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGA     [/td]"	[td]22-05-2013[/td]	[td]01-07-2013[/td]	[td]$2.355[/td]	[td]$2.025[/td]	[td]-14.03%​[/td]	[td]2.55%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.36%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MLB     [/td]"	[td]24-07-2013[/td]	[td]26-07-2013[/td]	[td]$2.236[/td]	[td]$1.869[/td]	[td]-16.37%​[/td]	[td]11.18%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.68%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DYE     [/td]"	[td]30-07-2013[/td]	[td]02-09-2013[/td]	[td]$0.521[/td]	[td]$0.353[/td]	[td]-32.2%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-3.66%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AWE     [/td]"	[td]24-07-2013[/td]	[td]21-10-2013[/td]	[td]$1.443[/td]	[td]$1.282[/td]	[td]-11.16%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-4.33%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ROC     [/td]"	[td]26-07-2013[/td]	[td]24-10-2013[/td]	[td]$0.536[/td]	[td]$0.499[/td]	[td]-6.95%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-4.74%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CCV     [/td]"	[td]12-09-2013[/td]	[td]29-10-2013[/td]	[td]$1.259[/td]	[td]$1.086[/td]	[td]-13.71%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.56%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]UGL     [/td]"	[td]13-09-2013[/td]	[td]20-11-2013[/td]	[td]$8.126[/td]	[td]$6.832[/td]	[td]-15.92%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-6.5%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]FGE     [/td]"	[td]13-09-2013[/td]	[td]28-11-2013[/td]	[td]$5.421[/td]	[td]$0.673[/td]	[td]-87.58%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-11.62%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPL1     [/td]"	[td]21-11-2013[/td]	[td]29-11-2013[/td]	[td]$2.626[/td]	[td]$2.584[/td]	[td]-1.58%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-11.7%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BDR     [/td]"	[td]02-10-2013[/td]	[td]04-12-2013[/td]	[td]$0.837[/td]	[td]$0.673[/td]	[td]-19.56%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-12.78%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TTN     [/td]"	[td]15-10-2013[/td]	[td]06-12-2013[/td]	[td]$3.257[/td]	[td]$2.483[/td]	[td]-23.77%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-14.08%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]FBU     [/td]"	[td]17-09-2013[/td]	[td]27-12-2013[/td]	[td]$8.337[/td]	[td]$7.742[/td]	[td]-7.14%​[/td]	[td]1.8%​​[/td]	"[td]-14.37%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RFG     [/td]"	[td]11-09-2013[/td]	[td]30-12-2013[/td]	[td]$4.519[/td]	[td]$4.58[/td]	[td]1.35%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-14.29%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]QUB     [/td]"	[td]20-09-2013[/td]	[td]02-01-2014[/td]	[td]$2.024[/td]	[td]$2.066[/td]	[td]2.05%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-14.18%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GOZ     [/td]"	[td]25-09-2013[/td]	[td]17-01-2014[/td]	[td]$2.585[/td]	[td]$2.434[/td]	[td]-5.83%​[/td]	[td]3.64%​​[/td]	"[td]-14.3%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SUL     [/td]"	[td]26-09-2013[/td]	[td]20-01-2014[/td]	[td]$13.326[/td]	[td]$11.221[/td]	[td]-15.8%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-15.15%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MCP     [/td]"	[td]11-11-2013[/td]	[td]29-01-2014[/td]	[td]$1.647[/td]	[td]$1.344[/td]	[td]-18.42%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-16.13%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MYX1     [/td]"	[td]16-08-2013[/td]	[td]30-01-2014[/td]	[td]$0.591[/td]	[td]$0.724[/td]	[td]22.42%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-14.95%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CDD     [/td]"	[td]24-10-2013[/td]	[td]06-02-2014[/td]	[td]$6.806[/td]	[td]$6.084[/td]	[td]-10.61%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-15.51%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AGO     [/td]"	[td]21-10-2013[/td]	[td]06-02-2014[/td]	[td]$1.007[/td]	[td]$1.003[/td]	[td]-0.44%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-15.54%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BCI     [/td]"	[td]02-09-2013[/td]	[td]11-03-2014[/td]	[td]$4.469[/td]	[td]$4.57[/td]	[td]2.26%​[/td]	[td]10.52%​​[/td]	"[td]-14.86%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BEN     [/td]"	[td]24-01-2014[/td]	[td]15-04-2014[/td]	[td]$11.61[/td]	[td]$10.91[/td]	[td]-6.02%​[/td]	[td]2.67%​​[/td]	"[td]-15.04%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MML     [/td]"	[td]14-03-2014[/td]	[td]23-04-2014[/td]	[td]$2.574[/td]	[td]$1.803[/td]	[td]-29.95%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-16.63%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CLH     [/td]"	[td]19-02-2014[/td]	[td]24-04-2014[/td]	[td]$1.903[/td]	[td]$1.692[/td]	[td]-11.1%​[/td]	[td]2.05%​​[/td]	"[td]-17.1%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DLS     [/td]"	[td]30-01-2014[/td]	[td]04-06-2014[/td]	[td]$1.468[/td]	[td]$1.527[/td]	[td]3.95%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-16.9%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CAJ     [/td]"	[td]01-04-2014[/td]	[td]06-06-2014[/td]	[td]$0.611[/td]	[td]$0.444[/td]	[td]-27.39%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-18.32%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EVN     [/td]"	[td]18-03-2014[/td]	[td]10-06-2014[/td]	[td]$0.942[/td]	[td]$0.823[/td]	[td]-12.54%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-18.96%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MYX2[/td]"	[td]28-03-2014[/td]	[td]12-06-2014[/td]	[td]$0.972[/td]	[td]$0.873[/td]	[td]-10.11%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-19.47%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IFM1     [/td]"	[td]25-02-2014[/td]	[td]20-06-2014[/td]	[td]$0.756[/td]	[td]$0.739[/td]	[td]-2.31%​[/td]	[td]2.5%​​[/td]	"[td]-19.46%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]NVT     [/td]"	[td]01-04-2014[/td]	[td]10-07-2014[/td]	[td]$7.314[/td]	[td]$5.086[/td]	[td]-30.47%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-21%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]FXJ     [/td]"	[td]15-04-2014[/td]	[td]16-07-2014[/td]	[td]$0.942[/td]	[td]$0.888[/td]	[td]-5.64%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-21.28%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SYD     [/td]"	[td]07-05-2014[/td]	[td]25-08-2014[/td]	[td]$4.309[/td]	[td]$4.391[/td]	[td]1.92%​[/td]	[td]2.67%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.05%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]NHF     [/td]"	[td]28-05-2014[/td]	[td]15-09-2014[/td]	[td]$3.155[/td]	[td]$2.995[/td]	[td]-5.09%​[/td]	[td]4.67%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.07%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]PAN     [/td]"	[td]04-06-2014[/td]	[td]24-09-2014[/td]	[td]$0.677[/td]	[td]$0.648[/td]	[td]-4.15%​[/td]	[td]2.96%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.13%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CGF     [/td]"	[td]17-09-2013[/td]	[td]01-10-2014[/td]	[td]$5.21[/td]	[td]$7.008[/td]	[td]34.51%​[/td]	[td]4.99%​​[/td]	"[td]-19.18%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]NTC     [/td]"	[td]17-06-2014[/td]	[td]01-10-2014[/td]	[td]$0.651[/td]	[td]$0.529[/td]	[td]-18.8%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-20.13%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SIR     [/td]"	[td]18-07-2014[/td]	[td]08-10-2014[/td]	[td]$3.957[/td]	[td]$2.923[/td]	[td]-26.13%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-21.44%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GXL     [/td]"	[td]16-07-2014[/td]	[td]09-10-2014[/td]	[td]$9.706[/td]	[td]$9.384[/td]	[td]-3.32%​[/td]	[td]0.72%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.56%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APE     [/td]"	[td]20-06-2014[/td]	[td]13-10-2014[/td]	[td]$5.829[/td]	[td]$5.434[/td]	[td]-6.78%​[/td]	[td]1.54%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.82%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AMP     [/td]"	[td]15-05-2014[/td]	[td]14-10-2014[/td]	[td]$5.341[/td]	[td]$5.179[/td]	[td]-3.02%​[/td]	[td]2.34%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.85%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EGP     [/td]"	[td]04-08-2014[/td]	[td]14-10-2014[/td]	[td]$3.275[/td]	[td]$3.355[/td]	[td]2.41%​[/td]	[td]1.22%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.68%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TTS     [/td]"	[td]02-07-2014[/td]	[td]20-10-2014[/td]	[td]$3.416[/td]	[td]$3.124[/td]	[td]-8.54%​[/td]	[td]1.61%​​[/td]	"[td]-22.01%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IMF     [/td]"	[td]03-06-2014[/td]	[td]23-10-2014[/td]	[td]$1.973[/td]	[td]$1.997[/td]	[td]1.18%​[/td]	[td]2.53%​​[/td]	"[td]-21.83%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]WHC     [/td]"	[td]25-08-2014[/td]	[td]30-10-2014[/td]	[td]$1.969[/td]	[td]$1.537[/td]	[td]-21.96%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-22.91%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]LNG     [/td]"	[td]28-03-2014[/td]	[td]14-11-2014[/td]	[td]$0.576[/td]	[td]$3.536[/td]	[td]514.02%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]1.86%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CAJ     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2014[/td]	[td]02-12-2014[/td]	[td]$0.681[/td]	[td]$0.589[/td]	[td]-13.59%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]1%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TNE     [/td]"	[td]15-09-2014[/td]	[td]03-12-2014[/td]	[td]$3.136[/td]	[td]$2.914[/td]	[td]-7.05%​[/td]	[td]1.98%​​[/td]	"[td]0.68%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IFM2[/td]"	[td]13-10-2014[/td]	[td]24-12-2014[/td]	[td]$1.132[/td]	[td]$1.198[/td]	[td]5.86%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]1.04%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ASZ     [/td]"	[td]10-10-2014[/td]	[td]02-01-2015[/td]	[td]$0.776[/td]	[td]$0.612[/td]	[td]-21.13%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.29%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ALU     [/td]"	[td]08-12-2014[/td]	[td]14-01-2015[/td]	[td]$3.294[/td]	[td]$2.926[/td]	[td]-11.19%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.99%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SHV     [/td]"	[td]08-10-2014[/td]	[td]19-01-2015[/td]	[td]$6.19[/td]	[td]$6.06[/td]	[td]-2.11%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-1.12%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]PMV     [/td]"	[td]30-09-2014[/td]	[td]11-02-2015[/td]	[td]$10.154[/td]	[td]$10.926[/td]	[td]7.6%​[/td]	[td]1.97%​​[/td]	"[td]-0.53%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MNF     [/td]"	[td]11-11-2014[/td]	[td]11-02-2015[/td]	[td]$3.684[/td]	[td]$2.795[/td]	[td]-24.12%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2.03%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGA     [/td]"	[td]07-11-2014[/td]	[td]04-03-2015[/td]	[td]$2.713[/td]	[td]$2.796[/td]	[td]3.07%​[/td]	[td]1.84%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.72%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRX     [/td]"	[td]23-10-2014[/td]	[td]18-03-2015[/td]	[td]$23.697[/td]	[td]$19.383[/td]	[td]-18.21%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2.84%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SKI     [/td]"	[td]19-01-2015[/td]	[td]09-04-2015[/td]	[td]$2.153[/td]	[td]$1.957[/td]	[td]-9.08%​[/td]	[td]2.67%​​[/td]	"[td]-3.23%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]LLC     [/td]"	[td]09-05-2014[/td]	[td]01-05-2015[/td]	[td]$13.176[/td]	[td]$16.234[/td]	[td]23.2%​[/td]	[td]5.77%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.48%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TLS     [/td]"	[td]16-01-2015[/td]	[td]12-05-2015[/td]	[td]$6.218[/td]	[td]$6.042[/td]	[td]-2.82%​[/td]	[td]2.41%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.51%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RMD     [/td]"	[td]04-11-2014[/td]	[td]15-05-2015[/td]	[td]$5.918[/td]	[td]$7.031[/td]	[td]18.79%​[/td]	[td]0.99%​​[/td]	"[td]-0.29%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AJX     [/td]"	[td]11-12-2014[/td]	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]$0.531[/td]	[td]$0.529[/td]	[td]-0.31%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.31%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MGR     [/td]"	[td]11-02-2015[/td]	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]$2.123[/td]	[td]$1.977[/td]	[td]-6.83%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.73%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IGO     [/td]"	[td]01-05-2015[/td]	[td]28-05-2015[/td]	[td]$5.907[/td]	[td]$4.753[/td]	[td]-19.53%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-1.94%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPL2     [/td]"	[td]11-02-2015[/td]	[td]29-05-2015[/td]	[td]$3.764[/td]	[td]$4.036[/td]	[td]7.2%​[/td]	[td]1.17%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.43%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]JHC     [/td]"	[td]27-05-2015[/td]	[td]23-06-2015[/td]	[td]$2.853[/td]	[td]$2.747[/td]	[td]-3.73%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-1.66%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]1PG     [/td]"	[td]18-03-2015[/td]	[td]29-06-2015[/td]	[td]$1.657[/td]	[td]$1.878[/td]	[td]13.34%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.84%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TFC     [/td]"	[td]27-05-2015[/td]	[td]01-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.862[/td]	[td]$1.548[/td]	[td]-16.87%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-1.89%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ASB     [/td]"	[td]16-06-2014[/td]	[td]07-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.252[/td]	[td]$1.763[/td]	[td]40.75%​[/td]	[td]0.8%​​[/td]	"[td]0.66%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ILU     [/td]"	[td]09-04-2015[/td]	[td]07-07-2015[/td]	[td]$8.88[/td]	[td]$7.44[/td]	[td]-16.21%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.36%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MYX     [/td]"	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]09-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.136[/td]	[td]$1.084[/td]	[td]-4.63%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TCL     [/td]"	[td]02-01-2015[/td]	[td]13-07-2015[/td]	[td]$8.661[/td]	[td]$9.749[/td]	[td]12.56%​[/td]	[td]2.37%​​[/td]	"[td]0.28%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EPW     [/td]"	[td]02-06-2015[/td]	[td]13-07-2015[/td]	[td]$2.543[/td]	[td]$2.167[/td]	[td]-14.77%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-0.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MTR     [/td]"	[td]14-11-2014[/td]	[td]16-07-2015[/td]	[td]$2.652[/td]	[td]$3.686[/td]	[td]38.95%​[/td]	[td]1.89%​​[/td]	"[td]1.89%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TOX     [/td]"	[td]04-03-2015[/td]	[td]20-07-2015[/td]	[td]$2.954[/td]	[td]$2.726[/td]	[td]-7.69%​[/td]	[td]1.35%​​[/td]	"[td]1.49%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]QAN[/td]"	[td]30-10-2014[/td]	[td]24-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.647[/td]	[td]$3.656[/td]	[td]121.96%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]9.22%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MTU     [/td]"	[td]29-10-2014[/td]	[td]27-07-2015[/td]	[td]$8.002[/td]	[td]$10.758[/td]	[td]34.43%​[/td]	[td]1.87%​​[/td]	"[td]11.7%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EHE     [/td]"	[td]12-05-2015[/td]	[td]05-08-2015[/td]	[td]$6.397[/td]	[td]$6.413[/td]	[td]0.24%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]11.72%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]OML     [/td]"	[td]15-05-2015[/td]	[td]19-08-2015[/td]	[td]$2.576[/td]	[td]$2.469[/td]	[td]-4.18%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]11.42%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]PMV     [/td]"	[td]29-05-2015[/td]	[td]24-08-2015[/td]	[td]$14.306[/td]	[td]$11.524[/td]	[td]-19.45%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]10.07%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CCP     [/td]"	[td]27-07-2015[/td]	[td]25-08-2015[/td]	[td]$13.129[/td]	[td]$11.655[/td]	[td]-11.23%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]9.3%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRF     [/td]"	[td]08-07-2015[/td]	[td]04-09-2015[/td]	[td]$1.857[/td]	[td]$1.678[/td]	[td]-9.65%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]8.64%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]UBN     [/td]"	[td]31-07-2015[/td]	[td]04-09-2015[/td]	[td]$1.347[/td]	[td]$0.828[/td]	[td]-38.48%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.03%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]LOV     [/td]"	[td]07-07-2015[/td]	[td]22-09-2015[/td]	[td]$3.334[/td]	[td]$2.949[/td]	[td]-11.54%​[/td]	[td]1.22%​​[/td]	"[td]5.34%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ASZ2[/td]"	[td]23-07-2015[/td]	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]$1.011[/td]	[td]$0.959[/td]	[td]-5.17%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]5%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SFR     [/td]"	[td]29-06-2015[/td]	[td]07-10-2015[/td]	[td]$5.687[/td]	[td]$6.083[/td]	[td]6.98%​[/td]	[td]1.76%​​[/td]	"[td]5.57%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]YOW     [/td]"	[td]01-07-2015[/td]	[td]30-10-2015[/td]	[td]$1.021[/td]	[td]$1.154[/td]	[td]12.98%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.43%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APE2[/td]"	[td]21-07-2015[/td]	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]$10.181[/td]	[td]$10.728[/td]	[td]5.38%​[/td]	[td]1.18%​​[/td]	"[td]6.87%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPD     [/td]"	[td]27-07-2015[/td]	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]$1.111[/td]	[td]$1.044[/td]	[td]-6.07%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.46%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SMX     [/td]"	[td]10-09-2015[/td]	[td]18-11-2015[/td]	[td]$4.746[/td]	[td]$3.305[/td]	[td]-30.37%​[/td]	[td]2.11%​​[/td]	"[td]4.58%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]1PG     [/td]"	[td]31-08-2015[/td]	[td]25-11-2015[/td]	[td]$4.386[/td]	[td]$3.108[/td]	[td]-29.14%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]2.68%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AJX     [/td]"	[td]23-09-2015[/td]	[td]11-12-2015[/td]	[td]$1.096[/td]	[td]$0.759[/td]	[td]-30.81%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]0.7%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EHE     [/td]"	[td]18-11-2015[/td]	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]$7.708[/td]	[td]$7.272[/td]	[td]-5.66%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]0.34%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SDA     [/td]"	[td]21-07-2015[/td]	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]$3.364[/td]	[td]$4.146[/td]	[td]23.21%​[/td]	[td]0.89%​​[/td]	"[td]1.86%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ACX     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]09-02-2016[/td]	[td]$4.705[/td]	[td]$3.875[/td]	[td]-17.63%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]0.73%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]30-10-2015[/td]	[td]09-02-2016[/td]	[td]$2.803[/td]	[td]$2.787[/td]	[td]-0.56%​[/td]	[td]1.78%​​[/td]	"[td]0.81%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR     [/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]12-02-2016[/td]	[td]$4.315[/td]	[td]$3.815[/td]	[td]-11.58%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]0.08%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]WEB     [/td]"	[td]07-10-2015[/td]	[td]12-02-2016[/td]	[td]$4.396[/td]	[td]$4.565[/td]	[td]3.84%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]0.32%​[/td]
[/tr]"

**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current open trades (actual executed) for the *Private Portfolio* - Update Week #5:

Sell signals being triggered - starting to move to cash (no current entry signals):



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	[td]Running Portfolio Return 
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]
"[tr]
 [td]EVT(AHD)[/td]"	[td]02-12-2014[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$11.374[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]28.23%​[/td]	[td]4.66%​​[/td]	"[td]2.38%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRX     [/td]"	[td]19-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$34.714[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-4.25%​[/td]	[td]0.58%​​[/td]	"[td]2.15%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TWE     [/td]"	[td]28-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$6.517[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]31.09%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]4.13%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APO     [/td]"	[td]25-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$5.386[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-5.58%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]3.77%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RIC     [/td]"	[td]11-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.602[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-15.8%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]2.75%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BGA     [/td]"	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.067[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-19.72%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]1.48%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]VOC     [/td]"	[td]09-02-2016[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.307[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]4.21%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]1.75%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BAL     [/td]"	[td]23-06-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.255[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]163.37%​[/td]	[td]0.67%​​[/td]	"[td]12.18%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ELD     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.155[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-3.82%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]11.91%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CKF     [/td]"	[td]05-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.434[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]33.57%​[/td]	[td]1.75%​​[/td]	"[td]14.38%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RRL     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.767[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]56.1%​[/td]	[td]2.26%​​[/td]	"[td]18.55%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SAR     [/td]"	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$0.556[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]67.3%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]23.54%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CTD     [/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$13.243[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-17.25%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]22.21%​[/td]
[/tr]"

**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current closed trades (actual executed) for the *SMSF Portfolio* - Update Week #5:



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	"[td]Running Portfolio Return
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]PDN[/td]"	[td]30-07-2013[/td]	[td]07-08-2013[/td]	[td]$0.976[/td]	[td]$0.664[/td]	[td]-32.01%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AWE1[/td]"	[td]24-07-2013[/td]	[td]21-10-2013[/td]	[td]$1.444[/td]	[td]$1.276[/td]	[td]-11.67%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2.72%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRX[/td]"	[td]09-08-2013[/td]	[td]08-11-2013[/td]	[td]$13.114[/td]	[td]$12.086[/td]	[td]-7.84%​[/td]	[td]0.92%​​[/td]	"[td]-3.14%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]WOR[/td]"	[td]17-09-2013[/td]	[td]21-11-2013[/td]	[td]$23.29[/td]	[td]$15.64[/td]	[td]-32.84%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.13%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AIO[/td]"	[td]20-09-2013[/td]	[td]13-12-2013[/td]	[td]$6.009[/td]	[td]$5.501[/td]	[td]-8.44%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.63%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MLD[/td]"	[td]17-10-2013[/td]	[td]27-12-2013[/td]	[td]$2.647[/td]	[td]$2.513[/td]	[td]-5.06%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.92%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BLD[/td]"	[td]12-09-2013[/td]	[td]02-01-2014[/td]	[td]$4.791[/td]	[td]$4.769[/td]	[td]-0.45%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.95%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BKW[/td]"	[td]24-09-2013[/td]	[td]20-01-2014[/td]	[td]$13.497[/td]	[td]$14.183[/td]	[td]5.09%​[/td]	[td]2%​​[/td]	"[td]-5.53%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DOW[/td]"	[td]12-09-2013[/td]	[td]07-02-2014[/td]	[td]$4.69[/td]	[td]$4.8[/td]	[td]2.35%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.39%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RIO2[/td]"	[td]02-12-2013[/td]	[td]12-02-2014[/td]	[td]$66.278[/td]	[td]$67.752[/td]	[td]2.22%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.26%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MGX2[/td]"	[td]21-10-2013[/td]	[td]28-02-2014[/td]	[td]$0.849[/td]	[td]$0.87[/td]	[td]2.41%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.12%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SGM[/td]"	[td]12-11-2013[/td]	[td]04-03-2014[/td]	[td]$10.004[/td]	[td]$9.626[/td]	[td]-3.78%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.34%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BCI[/td]"	[td]02-09-2013[/td]	[td]11-03-2014[/td]	[td]$4.489[/td]	[td]$4.551[/td]	[td]1.39%​[/td]	[td]10.47%​​[/td]	"[td]-4.64%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]NST1[/td]"	[td]18-03-2014[/td]	[td]11-06-2014[/td]	[td]$1.263[/td]	[td]$1.178[/td]	[td]-6.74%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.04%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MYX     [/td]"	[td]28-03-2014[/td]	[td]12-06-2014[/td]	[td]$0.969[/td]	[td]$0.871[/td]	[td]-10.17%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DMP[/td]"	[td]01-04-2014[/td]	[td]16-06-2014[/td]	[td]$19.985[/td]	[td]$19.824[/td]	[td]-0.8%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.7%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR     [/td]"	[td]04-03-2014[/td]	[td]16-06-2014[/td]	[td]$3.636[/td]	[td]$3.893[/td]	[td]7.07%​[/td]	[td]1.51%​​[/td]	"[td]-5.19%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CNU[/td]"	[td]04-04-2014[/td]	[td]10-07-2014[/td]	[td]$1.661[/td]	[td]$1.594[/td]	[td]-4.04%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-5.43%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SKC     [/td]"	[td]14-03-2014[/td]	[td]15-07-2014[/td]	[td]$3.737[/td]	[td]$3.513[/td]	[td]-5.97%​[/td]	[td]2.1%​​[/td]	"[td]-5.66%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CSR[/td]"	[td]04-04-2014[/td]	[td]23-07-2014[/td]	[td]$3.614[/td]	[td]$3.658[/td]	[td]1.21%​[/td]	[td]1.38%​​[/td]	"[td]-5.5%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AWE2[/td]"	[td]06-03-2014[/td]	[td]16-09-2014[/td]	[td]$1.555[/td]	[td]$1.714[/td]	[td]10.24%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-4.9%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]NST2[/td]"	[td]10-07-2014[/td]	[td]07-10-2014[/td]	[td]$1.583[/td]	[td]$1.182[/td]	[td]-25.33%​[/td]	[td]1.58%​​[/td]	"[td]-6.31%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DUE     [/td]"	[td]20-06-2014[/td]	[td]13-10-2014[/td]	[td]$2.481[/td]	[td]$2.369[/td]	[td]-4.53%​[/td]	[td]3.43%​​[/td]	"[td]-6.38%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SEA[/td]"	[td]23-07-2014[/td]	[td]14-10-2014[/td]	[td]$1.289[/td]	[td]$1.096[/td]	[td]-14.91%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-7.25%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TTS[/td]"	[td]02-07-2014[/td]	[td]20-10-2014[/td]	[td]$3.428[/td]	[td]$3.135[/td]	[td]-8.54%​[/td]	[td]1.6%​​[/td]	"[td]-7.65%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]VOC[/td]"	[td]04-07-2014[/td]	[td]23-10-2014[/td]	[td]$5.547[/td]	[td]$5.323[/td]	[td]-4.03%​[/td]	[td]0.18%​​[/td]	"[td]-7.87%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APN[/td]"	[td]23-05-2014[/td]	[td]13-11-2014[/td]	[td]$0.75[/td]	[td]$0.725[/td]	[td]-3.33%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-8.07%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]QUB[/td]"	[td]24-03-2014[/td]	[td]21-11-2014[/td]	[td]$2.235[/td]	[td]$2.215[/td]	[td]-0.88%​[/td]	[td]1.21%​​[/td]	"[td]-8.05%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AAD[/td]"	[td]24-07-2013[/td]	[td]10-12-2014[/td]	[td]$1.766[/td]	[td]$2.873[/td]	[td]62.68%​[/td]	[td]7.36%​​[/td]	"[td]-4.02%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IFM     [/td]"	[td]04-08-2014[/td]	[td]24-12-2014[/td]	[td]$0.884[/td]	[td]$1.196[/td]	[td]35.24%​[/td]	[td]2.14%​​[/td]	"[td]-1.78%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TPM     [/td]"	[td]04-11-2014[/td]	[td]13-01-2015[/td]	[td]$7.462[/td]	[td]$6.428[/td]	[td]-13.86%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2.63%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SHV     [/td]"	[td]13-10-2014[/td]	[td]19-01-2015[/td]	[td]$5.988[/td]	[td]$6.071[/td]	[td]1.38%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2.55%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TSE     [/td]"	[td]15-07-2014[/td]	[td]12-02-2015[/td]	[td]$1.281[/td]	[td]$1.569[/td]	[td]22.47%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-1.18%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRX     [/td]"	[td]23-10-2014[/td]	[td]18-03-2015[/td]	[td]$23.744[/td]	[td]$19.456[/td]	[td]-18.06%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]-2.29%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MNY     [/td]"	[td]12-02-2015[/td]	[td]31-03-2015[/td]	[td]$1.752[/td]	[td]$1.468[/td]	[td]-16.25%​[/td]	[td]1.43%​​[/td]	"[td]-3.2%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SPK(TEL)[/td]"	[td]02-10-2013[/td]	[td]10-04-2015[/td]	[td]$2.043[/td]	[td]$2.867[/td]	[td]40.32%​[/td]	[td]11.83%​​[/td]	"[td]-0.04%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ABP     [/td]"	[td]13-01-2015[/td]	[td]14-04-2015[/td]	[td]$3.154[/td]	[td]$2.926[/td]	[td]-7.24%​[/td]	[td]2.69%​​[/td]	"[td]-0.33%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TLS     [/td]"	[td]19-01-2015[/td]	[td]12-05-2015[/td]	[td]$6.217[/td]	[td]$6.023[/td]	[td]-3.12%​[/td]	[td]2.41%​​[/td]	"[td]-0.37%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CTX[/td]"	[td]04-04-2014[/td]	[td]15-05-2015[/td]	[td]$21.775[/td]	[td]$32.157[/td]	[td]47.67%​[/td]	[td]3.21%​​[/td]	"[td]2.8%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]WFD     [/td]"	[td]18-12-2014[/td]	[td]15-05-2015[/td]	[td]$8.798[/td]	[td]$9.262[/td]	[td]5.28%​[/td]	[td]1.8%​​[/td]	"[td]3.26%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AJX[/td]"	[td]11-12-2014[/td]	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]$0.529[/td]	[td]$0.526[/td]	[td]-0.47%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]3.23%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TAH     [/td]"	[td]29-10-2014[/td]	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]$3.997[/td]	[td]$4.833[/td]	[td]20.9%​[/td]	[td]10.01%​​[/td]	"[td]5.22%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CTD[/td]"	[td]16-09-2014[/td]	[td]28-05-2015[/td]	[td]$7.389[/td]	[td]$12.091[/td]	[td]63.63%​[/td]	[td]0.81%​​[/td]	"[td]9.46%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]REC[/td]"	[td]27-11-2014[/td]	[td]28-05-2015[/td]	[td]$6.51[/td]	[td]$7.7[/td]	[td]18.26%​[/td]	[td]1.38%​​[/td]	"[td]10.8%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TNE     [/td]"	[td]18-03-2015[/td]	[td]10-06-2015[/td]	[td]$3.907[/td]	[td]$3.603[/td]	[td]-7.8%​[/td]	[td]0.55%​​[/td]	"[td]10.3%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]FLT     [/td]"	[td]15-05-2015[/td]	[td]24-06-2015[/td]	[td]$46.901[/td]	[td]$34.279[/td]	[td]-26.91%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]8.44%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AOG     [/td]"	[td]13-04-2015[/td]	[td]29-06-2015[/td]	[td]$2.81[/td]	[td]$2.61[/td]	[td]-7.12%​[/td]	[td]1.78%​​[/td]	"[td]8.08%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TFC     [/td]"	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]01-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.896[/td]	[td]$1.544[/td]	[td]-18.61%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.83%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ASB     [/td]"	[td]16-06-2014[/td]	[td]07-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.256[/td]	[td]$1.759[/td]	[td]40.12%​[/td]	[td]0.8%​​[/td]	"[td]9.56%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]API     [/td]"	[td]20-11-2014[/td]	[td]07-07-2015[/td]	[td]$0.899[/td]	[td]$1.551[/td]	[td]72.51%​[/td]	[td]2.22%​​[/td]	"[td]14.67%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]OZL     [/td]"	[td]12-05-2015[/td]	[td]09-07-2015[/td]	[td]$4.735[/td]	[td]$3.685[/td]	[td]-22.19%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]13.08%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]DLS     [/td]"	[td]14-04-2015[/td]	[td]10-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.104[/td]	[td]$1.026[/td]	[td]-7.09%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]12.58%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ALU     [/td]"	[td]15-05-2015[/td]	[td]10-07-2015[/td]	[td]$5.038[/td]	[td]$4.222[/td]	[td]-16.18%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]11.44%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ISD     [/td]"	[td]04-06-2015[/td]	[td]10-07-2015[/td]	[td]$3.683[/td]	[td]$3.427[/td]	[td]-6.93%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]10.96%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EPW     [/td]"	[td]02-06-2015[/td]	[td]13-07-2015[/td]	[td]$2.549[/td]	[td]$2.161[/td]	[td]-15.21%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]9.91%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BKW     [/td]"	[td]26-05-2015[/td]	[td]22-07-2015[/td]	[td]$15.021[/td]	[td]$14.859[/td]	[td]-1.08%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]9.83%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]QAN     [/td]"	[td]30-10-2014[/td]	[td]24-07-2015[/td]	[td]$1.652[/td]	[td]$3.64[/td]	[td]120.39%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]18.1%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]OGC     [/td]"	[td]29-06-2015[/td]	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]$3.323[/td]	[td]$2.357[/td]	[td]-29.06%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]15.95%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CCP     [/td]"	[td]27-07-2015[/td]	[td]25-08-2015[/td]	[td]$13.177[/td]	[td]$11.663[/td]	[td]-11.49%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]15.12%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SRF     [/td]"	[td]09-07-2015[/td]	[td]04-09-2015[/td]	[td]$1.862[/td]	[td]$1.673[/td]	[td]-10.1%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]14.39%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]UBN     [/td]"	[td]31-07-2015[/td]	[td]04-09-2015[/td]	[td]$1.35[/td]	[td]$0.825[/td]	[td]-38.85%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]11.61%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AIA     [/td]"	[td]24-12-2014[/td]	[td]10-09-2015[/td]	[td]$4.198[/td]	[td]$4.352[/td]	[td]3.66%​[/td]	[td]1.69%​​[/td]	"[td]11.99%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]LOV     [/td]"	[td]24-06-2015[/td]	[td]22-09-2015[/td]	[td]$3.525[/td]	[td]$2.945[/td]	[td]-16.44%​[/td]	[td]1.15%​​[/td]	"[td]10.92%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ASZ     [/td]"	[td]23-07-2015[/td]	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]$1.014[/td]	[td]$0.954[/td]	[td]-5.85%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]10.51%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]JHX     [/td]"	[td]04-06-2015[/td]	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]$16.898[/td]	[td]$17.322[/td]	[td]2.51%​[/td]	[td]3.66%​​[/td]	"[td]10.94%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]APE     [/td]"	[td]21-07-2015[/td]	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]$10.207[/td]	[td]$10.703[/td]	[td]4.85%​[/td]	[td]1.18%​​[/td]	"[td]11.36%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]MMS     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]03-11-2015[/td]	[td]$14.258[/td]	[td]$12.773[/td]	[td]-10.42%​[/td]	[td]1.89%​​[/td]	"[td]10.76%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPD     [/td]"	[td]27-07-2015[/td]	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]$1.134[/td]	[td]$1.036[/td]	[td]-8.65%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]10.16%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPP     [/td]"	[td]03-11-2015[/td]	[td]13-11-2015[/td]	[td]$3.864[/td]	[td]$3.836[/td]	[td]-0.74%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]10.11%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SMX     [/td]"	[td]10-09-2015[/td]	[td]18-11-2015[/td]	[td]$4.756[/td]	[td]$3.294[/td]	[td]-30.74%​[/td]	[td]2.1%​​[/td]	"[td]8.14%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]1PG     [/td]"	[td]31-08-2015[/td]	[td]25-11-2015[/td]	[td]$4.425[/td]	[td]$3.241[/td]	[td]-26.77%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]6.33%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AJX     [/td]"	[td]23-09-2015[/td]	[td]11-12-2015[/td]	[td]$1.099[/td]	[td]$0.756[/td]	[td]-31.2%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]4.26%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]EHE     [/td]"	[td]13-11-2015[/td]	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]$7.497[/td]	[td]$7.253[/td]	[td]-3.25%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]4.05%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SDA     [/td]"	[td]21-07-2015[/td]	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]$3.372[/td]	[td]$4.138[/td]	[td]22.69%​[/td]	[td]0.89%​​[/td]	"[td]5.58%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]AMA     [/td]"	[td]10-06-2015[/td]	[td]08-01-2016[/td]	[td]$0.618[/td]	[td]$0.897[/td]	[td]45.25%​[/td]	[td]2.75%​​[/td]	"[td]8.75%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]GTY     [/td]"	[td]02-11-2015[/td]	[td]09-02-2016[/td]	[td]$2.779[/td]	[td]$2.781[/td]	[td]0.04%​[/td]	[td]1.8%​​[/td]	"[td]8.87%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TGR2[/td]"	[td]29-09-2015[/td]	[td]12-02-2016[/td]	[td]$4.316[/td]	[td]$3.814[/td]	[td]-11.62%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]8.08%​[/td]
[/tr]"
**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Trendnomics

Current open trades (actual executed) for the *SMSF Portfolio* - Update Week #5:



*[tr][td]Equity[/td]	[td]Buy Date[/td]	[td]Sell Date[/td]	[td]Buy Price*[/td]	[td]Sell Price*[/td]	[td]Position Open Profit^[/td]	[td]Position Divs[/td]	"[td]Running Portfolio Return 
(16 Positions)[/td][/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BAP     [/td]"	[td]31-03-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.262[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]25.92%​[/td]	[td]1.44%​​[/td]	"[td]9.93%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SIQ     [/td]"	[td]01-07-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$2.159[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]83.92%​[/td]	[td]3.66%​​[/td]	"[td]15.95%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ELD     [/td]"	[td]03-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.164[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-4.26%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]15.64%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]CKF     [/td]"	[td]06-08-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.401[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]34.63%​[/td]	[td]1.76%​​[/td]	"[td]18.27%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]TWE     [/td]"	[td]28-09-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$6.532[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]30.55%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]20.53%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]RRL     [/td]"	[td]01-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$1.771[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]55.46%​[/td]	[td]2.26%​​[/td]	"[td]24.87%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]IPH     [/td]"	[td]05-10-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.326[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]14.03%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]25.97%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SAR     [/td]"	[td]05-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$0.557[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]66.51%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]31.21%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]HUB     [/td]"	[td]19-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$3.503[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]12.37%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]32.22%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]OML     [/td]"	[td]26-11-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.166[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-6.75%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]31.66%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]BGA     [/td]"	[td]30-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.086[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-20.21%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]30%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SKC2[/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$4.175[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-2.64%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]29.79%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]SUL     [/td]"	[td]31-12-2015[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$11.552[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-16.83%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]28.42%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]ALL     [/td]"	[td]08-01-2016[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$9.683[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]-4.82%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]28.03%​[/td]
[/tr]"
"[tr]
 [td]VOC     [/td]"	[td]09-02-2016[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]$7.334[/td]	[td]N/A[/td]	[td]3.57%​[/td]	[td]​​[/td]	"[td]28.32%​[/td]
[/tr]"

**
* Adjusted to include commissions/brokerage
^ Position equity profit/loss only - excludes dividends*


----------



## Babenchuk

Voters in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio cast crucial ballots in the race for the presidency on Tuesday. Here are some of the things we will be watching. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/u...e-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0


----------



## howardbandy

Babenchuk said:


> Voters in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio cast crucial ballots in the race for the presidency on Tuesday. Here are some of the things we will be watching. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/u...e-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0




How is this post related to Two Portfolios?


----------



## Trendnomics

howardbandy said:


> How is this post related to Two Portfolios?




HAHA! - For a moment I got excited and thought someone was _*actually*_ interested in my trading.

I've stopped posting, due to the lack of interest - I guess long term trend-following is not exciting enough or perhaps it is because my results are all based in percentages (not actually showing the large amount of $$$ I'm reaping) .


----------



## nulla nulla

Trendnomics said:


> HAHA! - For a moment I got excited and thought someone was _*actually*_ interested in my trading.
> 
> I've stopped posting, due to the lack of interest - I guess long term trend-following is not exciting enough or perhaps it is because my results are all based in percentages (not actually showing the large amount of $$$ I'm reaping) .




Although there hasn't been a huge number of replies to your posts there have been over two thousand views on the thread or about 70 views per post. This would indicate that your thread does attract interest and I wouldn't be disheartened.

PS: If you are interested I can pass on what little I know of "table" set ups.


----------



## Joe Blow

Trendnomics said:


> I've stopped posting, due to the lack of interest - I guess long term trend-following is not exciting enough or perhaps it is because my results are all based in percentages (not actually showing the large amount of $$$ I'm reaping) .




I'm inclined to agree with nulla nulla. I wouldn't equate the lack of posts by others in the thread to a lack of interest. As nulla nulla pointed out, the thread has received a lot of views so clearly there is some interest there. My guess would be that others have been reading but haven't had anything to add to what you have posted.

If you are seeking feedback on anything in particular, just ask. People are more likely to post a reply when a question has been posed or feedback has been specifically requested.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Trendnomics said:


> HAHA! - For a moment I got excited and thought someone was _*actually*_ interested in my trading.
> 
> I've stopped posting, due to the lack of interest - I guess long term trend-following is not exciting enough or perhaps it is because my results are all based in percentages (not actually showing the large amount of $$$ I'm reaping) .



Could you change the positive numbers colouring from that bright colour? I can't see the numbers because I am colour defective.


----------



## minwa

I think check out peter's thread and perhaps try model after it first. At the moment mostly just a large excel table pasted, not many can or bother to follow. I think having 2 systems with large tables in one thread is confusing, considering separating the private SMSF into different threads.

I think charts of trades when you enter/exit with some thoughts/expectations will help.

To be honest it is less interesting for readers with such a large number of positions on and mostly sitting on them. Readers are naturally looking for action.


----------



## Trendnomics

minwa said:


> I think check out peter's thread and perhaps try model after it first. At the moment mostly just a large excel table pasted, not many can or bother to follow. I think having 2 systems with large tables in one thread is confusing, considering separating the private SMSF into different threads.
> 
> I think charts of trades when you enter/exit with some thoughts/expectations will help.
> 
> To be honest it is less interesting for readers with such a large number of positions on and mostly sitting on them. Readers are naturally looking for action.




Thanks for the feedback. 

I believe Peter's thread has been so successful due to:

Actual trade profits/losses ($$$) being posted - this yields a strong emotional response from people (I never intend to divulge such information);
Small number of positions for the portfolio - easier to follow (I'm unable to reduce my number of positions);
Frequent trading (My system is long term);
Discretionary trades - trading discretion creates plenty of discussion (people love to be right and prove others wrong).

I did not want to occupy two threads for two separate portfolio's, following the same system - my intention was to illustrate that two separate portfolio's (with varying trade paths), are profitable following a single system. 

I tend to strongly suppress my opinion(s) when it comes to equities - I simply follow my system - hence, I don't believe I could add much in terms of "thoughts/expectations".

Yes people are looking for action - similar to a night at the casino (spruiker feed - ignore people who are compounding their money the "boring" way).

One does not have to be a market genius to achieve success over the long term, you only have to be extraordinarily committed at repeatedly doing the mundane.


----------



## minwa

Agreed with all those points except $$ amount. Pretty sure Peter's is only a continuation of pav's theoretical portfolio with a generic starting capital, and he may or may not have done the actual trades, with different capital amounts. 

But yes being long term, mechanical, many positions makes it hard to make a good thread, a shame.


----------



## nulla nulla

Trendnomics said:


> Thanks for the feedback.
> 
> I believe Peter's thread has been so successful due to:
> 
> Actual trade profits/losses ($$$) being posted - this yields a strong emotional response from people (I never intend to divulge such information);
> Small number of positions for the portfolio - easier to follow (I'm unable to reduce my number of positions);
> Frequent trading (My system is long term);
> Discretionary trades - trading discretion creates plenty of discussion (people love to be right and prove others wrong).
> 
> I did not want to occupy two threads for two separate portfolio's, following the same system - my intention was to illustrate that two separate portfolio's (with varying trade paths), are profitable following a single system.
> 
> I tend to strongly suppress my opinion(s) when it comes to equities - I simply follow my system - hence, I don't believe I could add much in terms of "thoughts/expectations".
> 
> Yes people are looking for action - similar to a night at the casino (spruiker feed - ignore people who are compounding their money the "boring" way).
> 
> One does not have to be a market genius to achieve success over the long term, you only have to be extraordinarily committed at repeatedly doing the mundane.




Well put. Compounding your money the "boring" way over the long term will see your capital grow much faster than you expected and at a rate of return way better than bank interest rates.


----------



## Wyatt

Hi Trendnomics,
I have been enjoying your contributions greatly as I am interested in longer term momentum system trading.
In particular, your ability to steadfastly follow your system through good and bad times is very impressive.
How long did it take you to master the skill to sit tight despite rising draw downs, yet trust your system to produce a good CAGR over time or did you just do it straight up? 

I have a few questions if I may, how did you end up with 16 positions?
How do you select your new positions from the many trending stocks at a given time? 
What about position sizing, do you use equal fractions or a different concept?
Do you scale your exposure up and down or stay fully invested all the time?
Did you post any Monte Carlo results for your backtesting somewhere. I think if anyone here can reverse engineer your system, then they probably have many of their own.

If you are able to provide a few more insights into your trading world, you would no doubt get more feedback.

Many people are watching and appreciate your contributions.

Cheers,
Wyatt


----------



## get better

I was initially very interested in your thread when it first started but found that I struggled to process the large amount of information in your tables in a meaningful and timely way. 

Is it possible to post the data in your tables in charts instead (echoing minwa's comments)? That would make it much easier to interpret and may make it easier for people to understand the content of the thread and provide positive/constructive feedback.


----------



## Trendnomics

Wyatt said:


> Hi Trendnomics,
> I have been enjoying your contributions greatly as I am interested in longer term momentum system trading.
> In particular, your ability to steadfastly follow your system through good and bad times is very impressive.
> How long did it take you to master the skill to sit tight despite rising draw downs, yet trust your system to produce a good CAGR over time or did you just do it straight up?




Hey Wyatt,

Thanks for making your first ever ASF post on my thread .

Good to hear that you are interested in "longer term momentum system trading" - in my opinion it is the ideal trading environment for a retail trader (i.e. low commission drag, dividends, CGT discount, EOD trading, large market inefficiencies, etc.).

My strong system trading conviction, relies heavily on my theoretical understanding of systematic trend-follow trading - conviction comes easy/easier with understanding. I've spent numerous hours on back-tests, studying economic theories, analysing other people's trading systems and actual trading, in order to obtain what I consider, a strong theoretical trading background. 

My theoretical trading background lead me to the conclusion that long term, long only, systematic trend-follow trading, is the most efficient trading environment for a retail trader. Furthermore, my theoretical trading background assisted with the development of my unique trading system. Strong theoretical knowledge and trading your own system, assists greatly with commitment and discipline.

Inclusively, strong emotional intelligence and trading psychology is vital, to long term systematic trading (prone to long deep draw-downs). I've always been a little different to everyone else (psychologically/mentally) and particularly over the last decade, I have changed my emotional relationship with money completely. Trading theory is a crucial part of trading success and serves as an excellent emotional crutch - but ultimately long term success is dependent on trading psychology. Everyday I condition myself emotionally for the inevitable future draw-down.

My current success and conviction is also related to the fact that long term, long only, systematic trend-follow trading is the *ONLY* option I have permitted myself to pursue. I'm a property bear, hence will never invest in property (don't own any property), to me starting a business carries too many risks, hence I will never invest in a business and I don't believe any other form of trading is efficient/suitable for a retail trader. Hence, I'm a 100% locked onto one form of "investment", to grow my wealth for the future. I see far too many people, giving themselves far too many "options" - this leads to low conviction.



Wyatt said:


> I have a few questions if I may, how did you end up with 16 positions?




My system has a fixed stop-loss of 30% on each position. Concurrently, I have a maximum of 16 positions in my SMSF and private portfolio, due to the fact that I'm willing to risk ~2% of each portfolio per position - i.e. 1/16 = 6.25% -> 30% of 6.25% = 1.875%.



Wyatt said:


> How do you select your new positions from the many trending stocks at a given time?




There have been numerous occasions, where multiple entries existed and the number of available entries exceeded the available open positions (i.e. number of entries exceed available trading capital). On these occasions I've selected entries that would lead to a more diversified portfolio.

To understand this scenario better, a random trade path simulator with a Monte Carlo analysis feature, is extremely useful (my Monte Carlo results posted in this thread, are for random trade paths - i.e. when number of entries exceed available trading capital, then select random entries).



Wyatt said:


> What about position sizing, do you use equal fractions or a different concept?




My position sizing is based on equal fractions (1/16 of current portfolio value - including open profits) - maintaining equal fractions is a challenge with the monthly savings contributions I make to my private portfolio and the constant contributions to the SMSF.



Wyatt said:


> Do you scale your exposure up and down or stay fully invested all the time?




I'm committed to maintaining maximum exposure (based on trading position availability) - I don't use index filters.

When you are trading a system with a proven mathematical positive expectancy, then it's in your best interest to execute trades as often as possibly permitted (think about it in terms of casino roulette - the casino spins the wheel as often as permitted to maximise profits).



Wyatt said:


> Did you post any Monte Carlo results for your backtesting somewhere. I think if anyone here can reverse engineer your system, then they probably have many of their own.




I have posted Monte Carlo results on two occasions in this thread (one overall historic set of results and one set of results over the live trading period).

Long term long only trend following systems, share similar characteristics and there are numerous systems freely available on the net.

My system is unique in the fact that I have completely programmed it from scratch, to ensure that it is extremely simplistic for future robustness.



Wyatt said:


> If you are able to provide a few more insights into your trading world, you would no doubt get more feedback.
> 
> Many people are watching and appreciate your contributions.




Thanks for your interest in my thread.


----------



## Trendnomics

get better said:


> I was initially very interested in your thread when it first started but found that I struggled to process the large amount of information in your tables in a meaningful and timely way.
> 
> Is it possible to post the data in your tables in charts instead (echoing minwa's comments)? That would make it much easier to interpret and may make it easier for people to understand the content of the thread and provide positive/constructive feedback.




Thanks for your interest. 

I'm currently considering the viability of this thread and alternative trading data representation(s).


----------



## Trendnomics

Just a quick update - after a volatile period and some draw-downs, both my accounts have made new equity highs today:

*Private Portfolio: +36.41% (Since 07-2013)*

*SMSF Portfolio: +39.22% (Since 07-2013)*

There has been a massive flow of money into my accounts in the last 7 trading days (large 5 figure sum ).


----------



## Trendnomics

Reflecting on the top 4 closed trades across my portfolio's - the ones that pay for all the losers and put profits in your pocket:










Not bad, given the volatile and poor performance of the ASX over the past three years .


----------



## Trendnomics

My portfolio's are maintaining their new highs:

*Private Portfolio: +36.35 % (Since 07-2013)

SMSF Portfolio: +39.73 % (Since 07-2013)*

Mining related stocks contributing excellently - guess after such a long period of under-performance, it is about time that the worm turns.


----------



## Trendnomics

The good times keep rolling - portfolio returns at close today:

*Private Portfolio: +38.38 % (Since 07-2013)

SMSF Portfolio: +41.9 % (Since 07-2013)*


----------



## craft

Trendnomics said:


> The good times keep rolling - portfolio returns at close today:
> 
> *Private Portfolio: +38.38 % (Since 07-2013)
> 
> SMSF Portfolio: +41.9 % (Since 07-2013)*




Hi Trend

Since 1/7/13 XAO accumulation has returned 28.7% or 9.2% pa compounded - so you are a few % points pa in front of that at the moment- well done.  Do you have an equity curve? it would be interesting to see if you are achieving your outperformance consistently and with lower volatility than the index.

Cheers


----------



## Trendnomics

craft said:


> Hi Trend
> 
> Since 1/7/13 XAO accumulation has returned 28.7% or 9.2% pa compounded - so you are a few % points pa in front of that at the moment- well done.  Do you have an equity curve? it would be interesting to see if you are achieving your outperformance consistently and with lower volatility than the index.
> 
> Cheers




Hey Craft,

As per your request see below (at close today):


----------



## craft

Trendnomics said:


> Hey Craft,
> 
> As per your request see below (at close today):
> 
> View attachment 66546
> 
> View attachment 66547




Hi Trend

Looking at those two equity curves and comparing to previous tables I would guess the private portfolio is based on closed trades  whilst the SMSF includes open trades. Any chance of having them both prepared on the same mark to market (include open trades) basis? Interesting to see how much variability there is between the two outcomes when the input system is the same.

Also any chance of overlaying the XAO accumulation index - so you can get a feel for consistency and volatility against the do nothing alternative.

Cheers


----------



## Trendnomics

craft said:


> Hi Trend
> 
> Looking at those two equity curves and comparing to previous tables I would guess the private portfolio is based on closed trades  whilst the SMSF includes open trades. Any chance of having them both prepared on the same mark to market (include open trades) basis? Interesting to see how much variability there is between the two outcomes when the input system is the same.
> 
> Also any chance of overlaying the XAO accumulation index - so you can get a feel for consistency and volatility against the do nothing alternative.
> 
> Cheers




Hey Craft,

Both curves include closed and open trades (open trade values recorded on same close date) - difference in curves is due to the different trade paths.

I will see if I can do a XAOAI (or equivalent) overlay, and post it once completed.


----------



## Trendnomics

An Accumulation Index has been added to each of the separate equity curves:






Note the following:

The Accumulation Index added is: S&P/ASX 200 Net Total Rtn: INDEX (ASX:XNT - LINK) - XAOAI data not easily available;  
The index return data-points coincide with closed trade dates;
The flat part (at right side) of the index, is the region of current open trades.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Trendnomics said:


> - XAOAI data not easily available;



The Total Return (reinvested dividends) Index for ASX200 and All Ords. is similar obviously due to the stock weighting of the 200 in the 500. Green - ASX200, Red - All Ords. since 2013

p.s. Might add that if you don't close the open profit/loss positions then return to track (mean?) of the Index is probable and thus showing the correlation.


----------



## Trendnomics

Wysiwyg said:


> The Total Return (reinvested dividends) Index for ASX200 and All Ords. is similar obviously due to the stock weighting of the 200 in the 500. Green - ASX200, Red - All Ords. since 2013
> 
> View attachment 66560




I agree. And the top 200 equities are more likely to pay dividends (or higher yielding dividends).


----------



## Wysiwyg

Trendnomics said:


> I agree. And the top 200 equities are more likely to pay dividends (or higher yielding dividends).



What are your thoughts on my p.s. view?


----------



## Trendnomics

Wysiwyg said:


> What are your thoughts on my p.s. view?




The Private Portfolio is very close to the index return, when open positions are excluded (can be observed on graph - see before flat index part on right).

The SMSF Portfolio outperforms the index return, even when the open positions are excluded (can be observed on graph - see before flat index part on right).


----------



## craft

Trendnomics said:


> An Accumulation Index has been added to each of the separate equity curves:
> 
> View attachment 66559
> 
> View attachment 66558
> 
> 
> Note the following:
> 
> The Accumulation Index added is: S&P/ASX 200 Net Total Rtn: INDEX (ASX:XNT - LINK) - XAOAI data not easily available;
> The index return data-points coincide with closed trade dates;
> The flat part (at right side) of the index, is the region of current open trades.




Hi trend

Thanks for putting the chart together. Just a little confused, as it's not what I normally expect as a daily mark to market equity curve, I think what you are doing is plotting your closed trades on the x axis and then added the open trades at the end,  added the index for the same closed dates with today's index the flat line against the open positions - am I understanding it correctly?

If I,m right with the above, the SMSF still throws me because the X axis is real funky and the chart doesn't match the tables you put up earlier. You had closed equity at 8% on last table in Feb, but chart seems to be a fair bit different. A guess but maybe you have the SMSF data sorted on buy date.

I think once the charts are sorted they are still going to show a fair bit of difference between outcomes, what do you think about the divergence of the outcomes given the name of this thread indicates the input system is the same? How wide is the return distribution you expected from the system?


----------



## Trendnomics

craft said:


> Hi trend
> 
> Thanks for putting the chart together. Just a little confused, as it's not what I normally expect as a daily mark to market equity curve, I think what you are doing is plotting your closed trades on the x axis and then added the open trades at the end,  added the index for the same closed dates with today's index the flat line against the open positions - am I understanding it correctly?
> 
> If I,m right with the above, the SMSF still throws me because the X axis is real funky and the chart doesn't match the tables you put up earlier. You had closed equity at 8% on last table in Feb, but chart seems to be a fair bit different. A guess but maybe you have the SMSF data sorted on buy date.
> 
> I think once the charts are sorted they are still going to show a fair bit of difference between outcomes, what do you think about the divergence of the outcomes given the name of this thread indicates the input system is the same? How wide is the return distribution you expected from the system?




Each graph's data points consist of trade-close-dates (x-values) and trade-close-returns (y-values). Open trades are 'closed' on last reporting day (05/05/16). 

Trades with the same trade-close-dates (x-values) are not stacked - hence the reason for duplicate dates on the x-axis - provides more detail on current open trade returns.

To ensure the synchronization of data-points, the XNT index is overlayed on matching x-value data-points - hence at the end of each graph it appears flat due to the repeated 05/05/16 dates.

I have not posted updated return-tables, due to the lack of interest on this thread - current graphs provided are the most up to date information (as of 05/05/16).

The current return distribution falls within my back-test results - have a look at my previous posted back-test results.


----------



## craft

Trendnomics said:


> Each graph's data points consist of trade-close-dates (x-values) and trade-close-returns (y-values). Open trades are 'closed' on last reporting day (05/05/16).
> 
> Trades with the same trade-close-dates (x-values) are not stacked - hence the reason for duplicate dates on the x-axis - provides more detail on current open trade returns.
> 
> To ensure the synchronization of data-points, the XNT index is overlayed on matching x-value data-points - hence at the end of each graph it appears flat due to the repeated 05/05/16 dates.




Hi Trend

Take a look at your X axis on the SMSF graph.
At one point it goes 10/12/14 - 15/5/15 - 28/5/15 and then back to 16/6/14
At another point it goes 1/7/15 - 1/10/15 - 8/1/16 and then back to 3/8/15




Trendnomics said:


> I have not posted updated return-tables, due to the lack of interest on this thread - current graphs provided are the most up to date information (as of 05/05/16).
> 
> The current return distribution falls within my back-test results - have a look at my previous posted back-test results.




The graph doesn't match the closed trade flow in the tables you did provide. Again I'll speculate you may have sorted by buy date. (which is actually not bad information because it highlights the periods of good and bad entries) - but its not what you have described as your chart construction and it doesn't appear to be consistent with the private portfolio construction. To evaluate performance management data you have collect, collate and understand it accurately.

I'm not trying to have a go - its good to see somebody trying to monitor their performance. Just trying to point out something that looks confused to me. But I'm happy to do lack of interest if you prefer.


----------



## Trendnomics

craft said:


> Hi Trend
> 
> Take a look at your X axis on the SMSF graph.
> At one point it goes 10/12/14 - 15/5/15 - 28/5/15 and then back to 16/6/14
> At another point it goes 1/7/15 - 1/10/15 - 8/1/16 and then back to 3/8/15
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The graph doesn't match the closed trade flow in the tables you did provide. Again I'll speculate you may have sorted by buy date. (which is actually not bad information because it highlights the periods of good and bad entries) - but its not what you have described as your chart construction and it doesn't appear to be consistent with the private portfolio construction. To evaluate performance management data you have collect, collate and understand it accurately.
> 
> I'm not trying to have a go - its good to see somebody trying to monitor their performance. Just trying to point out something that looks confused to me. But I'm happy to do lack of interest if you prefer.




Hey Craft,

Apologies! Damn Excel filter didn't work, hence some of the closed trades for the SMSF graph, weren't sorted 100% chronologically. 

Lets try again:






I appreciate your interest.


----------



## craft

Trendnomics said:


> Hey Craft,
> 
> Apologies! Damn Excel filter didn't work, hence some of the closed trades for the SMSF graph, weren't sorted 100% chronologically.
> 
> Lets try again:
> 
> View attachment 66569
> 
> View attachment 66570
> 
> 
> I appreciate your interest.




Hi trend – looks like you have got it sorted now.	Trade paths for the two systems now not that dissimilar.

Any reconsideration of Wysiwyg  p.s question now the charts are fixed?  What’s the heat on open positions?

Also a detail on the XNT. Whilst the observation that Wysiwyg made regarding there not being much difference between the 200 and 500 is correct – he was contrasting the accumulation indexes for both.  The XNT however is constructed by subtracting 30% withholdolding tax before accumulation (ie its designed to show the oversees investor point of view) By its construction it will underperform quite significantly the accumulation indexes over time.

Even the accumulation indexes understate the passive return to a super fund because of supers 15% tax regime and the refund of franking credits.

In short the passive indexation alternative is understated meaningfully overtime by the XNT index especially for the SMSF.


----------



## Trendnomics

A quick update - both portfolio's have been exploding (in a good way):

*Private Portfolio: +57.04 % (Since 07-2013)

SMSF Portfolio: +58.89 % (Since 07-2013)*

Resources (lithium + gold) contributing the most:


----------



## Trendnomics

Another train-wreck I escaped prior to the crash - as always green line entry, red line exit:


----------



## Wysiwyg

Trendnomics said:


> Another train-wreck I escaped prior to the crash - as always green line entry, red line exit:



My vision could be failing me but what happened to year 2015 on your chart?


----------



## Trendnomics

Wysiwyg said:


> My vision could be failing me but what happened to year 2015 on your chart?




I blame Metastock scaling .

The "2014" on the axis is the end of 2014, right from that lies 2015 to 2016.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Trendnomics said:


> I blame Metastock scaling .
> 
> The "2014" on the axis is the end of 2014, right from that lies 2015 to 2016.



Okay thanks. You got out at the end of the trend.


----------



## Trendnomics

Portfolios update - the Brexit had little impact - general losses absorbed beautifully by my large positions in gold - minor fluctuations on the six figure profit $$$,$$$. 

*Private Portfolio: +54.19 % (Since 07-2013)

SMSF Portfolio: +57.30 % (Since 07-2013)*

This update's showcase trade - BAP.asx - held in SMSF - 459 day trade +71.5% profit (includes 2x dividends) - as always green vertical line indicates entry:


----------



## Trendnomics

Just want to tie something back to this thread, that was discussed on another thread (HERE):

My system's overall expectancy:



Trendnomics said:


> Great thread - related to my pet hate and everyone's stumbling block.
> 
> Just comparing expectancy values for different systems/strategies, is like the age old analogy of apples vs. pears. "Expectancy" (per trade) is only one dimension of a profitable system, the other dimension, is "Number-of-Trades" (per time period):
> 
> _System Expected Profit = Expectancy x Number-of-Trades_
> 
> Expectancy should be adjusted by the number of trade positions for a system/strategy:
> 
> _Expectancy = [(Average_win x %_win) - (Average_loss x %_loss)]/(Trade_positions)_
> 
> The metrics for my Trend-Following System are as follows:
> 
> Average_win = 30.77%
> Average_loss = -12.13%
> 
> %_win = 47.3%
> %_loss = 52.7%
> 
> Trade_positions = 16
> 
> Expectancy = 1.31% /trade
> Number-of-Trades = 37 trades/year
> 
> *System Expected Profit = 48.47% / year*
> 
> Note that expectancy values, are based on normal-distributed outcomes - approximate reflection of real trading results (quite a bit off for trend-following).


----------



## Trendnomics

An update - my SMSF portfolio has made a new all-time equity high  - my private portfolio got hit by CIM.asx (which was sold yesterday):

*Private Portfolio: +56.07 % (Since 07-2013)

SMSF Portfolio: +60.59 % (Since 07-2013)*

A quick snapshot of current open trades for each portfolio (excludes dividends):

Private:

TWE      -  (44.13%) -  285 day trade
VOC      -  (14.34%) -  151 day trade
COH      -  (15.38%) -  145 day trade
VTG      -  (51.47%) -  138 day trade
MPL      -  (0.17%) -  100 day trade
SSM      -  (5.81%) -  82 day trade
WOR      -  (2.49%) -  23 day trade
CAT      -  (-0.73%) -  1 day trade
RRL      -  (118.92%) -  282 day trade
SAR      -  (198.69%) -  247 day trade
CTD      -  (2.23%) -  191 day trade
NAN      -  (1.67%) -  123 day trade
RFG      -  (0.75%) -  116 day trade
ORE      -  (53.44%) -  110 day trade
GMM      -  (38.02%) -  92 day trade
PGH      -  (-1.15%) -  12 day trade

SMSF:

BAP      -  (61.17%) -  466 day trade
TWE      -  (43.56%) -  285 day trade
RRL      -  (118.12%) -  282 day trade
SAR      -  (197.53%) -  247 day trade
SKC      -  (5.74%) -  191 day trade
ALL      -  (39.18%) -  183 day trade
VOC      -  (13.66%) -  151 day trade
COH      -  (14.61%) -  145 day trade
VTG      -  (50.8%) -  138 day trade
NAN      -  (1.1%) -  123 day trade
RFG      -  (0.2%) -  116 day trade
GMM      -  (38.3%) -  92 day trade
MPL      -  (-0.62%) -  89 day trade
SSM      -  (5.27%) -  82 day trade
FBU      -  (1.97%) -  23 day trade
CL1      -  (-0.21%) -  9 day trade


----------



## Wyatt

Hi Trendnomics,

I am pleased to see you are doing well atm. I notice that you do venture out past the XAO boundary at times, this is something I have been looking into myself, trying to ID the next group of new entrants come the next indices rebalance. I recently bought CL1 and should have jumped into CAT around $2.60 ish, but let it fly right past. 

You must get a lot of signals in that large universe, would this not potentially have some bearing on your backtesting accuracy.

Cheers,
Wyatt


----------



## Trendnomics

Hey Wyatt,

My trading universe consists of the following:

Closing price greater or equal than 50 cents - (Close >= 0.5);
Product of 100 day closing price moving average and 100 day volume moving average, to be greater or equal than $250,000 - [Mov(CLOSE,100,S)*Mov(VOLUME,100,S) >= 250000].
Yes, this does result in a lot of signals, but as recently discussed on the topic of expectancy, the more trades the better - my focus is to remain 100% invested (given the signals).

I use chronological possibility outcome assessment Monte Carlo back-testing (system generates more trades than available trading capital - numerous combinations possible - i.e. "butterfly-like-effect"):

Random trade entries (when multiple entries exist on a particular day + insufficient trading capital);
"Butterfly Effect" trade path generation (i.e. one entry will have a unique exit, which then creates another unique entry, etc.);
Random price execution.
The software I've used allows for 20,000 Monte Carlo outcomes - the minimum, average and maximum profit outcomes (similar for draw-downs) can then be derived form the results - providing an indication of the range of possible outcomes for the time period.

Example:
View attachment 65802


----------



## howardbandy

Greetings --

Beware, or at least be aware:

1.  Monte Carlo is a tool.  The way it is being used for this analysis requires that the trades be independent.  Applying the technique when the trades are not independent results in an underestimate of risk and overestimate of profit. 

2.  The universe of issues available today may not be the same as it was for the test period.  There are survivor and membership biases to consider.

3.  As trading systems are developed, parameters are varied and the "best" system depends on the specific value used.  (That value changes over time, but that discussion is about stationarity.  The point I am making here is about dimension.)  The more values tested, the higher the probability that a good value will be found.  Adding indicators and parameter values adds "alternatives" to be tested, from which the best is chosen.  When choosing the issue for the next trade, each potential issue is an alternative.  Allowing a system to choose a small number of issues from a large population is "optimizing the symbol space."    

3A.  Optimizing the symbol space is, in itself, worrisome.
3B.  The Monte Carlo technique described is inappropriate for analysis of the result.

Best,
Howard


----------



## Trendnomics

howardbandy said:


> Greetings --
> 
> Beware, or at least be aware:
> 
> 1.  Monte Carlo is a tool.  The way it is being used for this analysis requires that the trades be independent.  Applying the technique when the trades are not independent results in an underestimate of risk and overestimate of profit.
> 
> 2.  The universe of issues available today may not be the same as it was for the test period.  There are survivor and membership biases to consider.
> 
> 3.  As trading systems are developed, parameters are varied and the "best" system depends on the specific value used.  (That value changes over time, but that discussion is about stationarity.  The point I am making here is about dimension.)  The more values tested, the higher the probability that a good value will be found.  Adding indicators and parameter values adds "alternatives" to be tested, from which the best is chosen.  When choosing the issue for the next trade, each potential issue is an alternative.  Allowing a system to choose a small number of issues from a large population is "optimizing the symbol space."
> 
> 3A.  Optimizing the symbol space is, in itself, worrisome.
> 3B.  The Monte Carlo technique described is inappropriate for analysis of the result.
> 
> Best,
> Howard




"Monte Carlo" appears to be the magic term to summon you. Thanks for your input - the brush you are using is a little broad for my liking (i.e. treating the back-testing of long-term and short-term strategies in a similar manner).

Business as usual on my end - it's raining $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (new equity highs):

*Private Portfolio: +62.08 % (Since 07-2013)

SMSF Portfolio: +65.53 % (Since 07-2013)*


----------



## howardbandy

Greetings --

Long term holding versus short term holding versus any use of funds at all ...

The metric to compare any use of funds is forecast compound annual gain of the risk-normalized performance.  Monte Carlo is the tool of choice for doing that analysis.

If a trader has quantifiable confidence in a system and a procedure in place to detect and respond to changes in stationarity, that is what matters.

Best,
Howard


----------



## weird2

Trendnomics has indicated he uses the software Tradesim, so it may be helpful to put in context the type of Monte Carlo analysis that is performed by that software - which we can term as MC Randomisation when comparing with options available in Amibroker.

If we look at 2 approaches with the focus on the approach taken with Tradesim

1. MC Randomisation - Tradesim or Amibroker
2. MC Bootstrap - Amibroker

From the Tradesim Manual which can be viewed online



> *Not all Monte Carlo analyzers provide useful results.*
> 
> The TradeSim Monte Carlo analysis is unique in that it provides a true portfolio Monte Carlo analysis
> _*rather than a Monte Carlo analysis based on time series shuffling or synthesis of trades using random
> generators and price distributions. *
> _
> When thousands of simulations are run in a TradeSim Monte Carlo analysis each simulation represents a real world portfolio-trading scenario, which uses real trades that occurred from the historical trade databases.
> 
> Unlike other software TradeSim does not synthesize trades by time series shuffling or price synthesis using questionable price distributions. Looked at it another way when TradeSim runs a 10,000 run Monte Carlo simulation on the top 200 stocks it is *like having 10,000 traders trading from the same portfolio or universe of securities, and using the same trading rules*. If there are a large number of trades with the same entry dates then you would expect each trader to come up with a different result as each trader would not choose exactly the same trades even though they are obeying the same set of trading rules. Because of this capability we believe our Monte Carlo analysis is unique and stands alone compared to any other offering from any other vendor.




Amibroker can also provide this type of analysis




> *How about Monte Carlo randomization instead of bootstrap test?*
> 
> The Monte Carlo randomization is different than bootstrap test because it does not use actual (realized) trade list from the backtest but it attempts to use "all individual returns whenever they are realized or hyphotetical". For example when trading system is generating way more signals than we can actually trade due to limited buying power, then we have to choose which trades we would take and which we would skip. Normally this selection is a part of trading system and in AmiBroker PositionScore variable tells the backtester which positions are preferred and should be traded. In randomization test, instead of using some analytic/deterministic PositionScore, you use random one. If there are more signals to open positions than we could take, this process would lead to randomized trade picks. Now using Optimize() function and random PositionScore we can run thousands of such random picks to produce Monte Carlo randomization test:
> 
> step = Optimize( "step", 1, 1, 1000, 1 ); // 1000 backtests
> // with random trade picks from the broad universe (make sure you run it on large watch lists)
> PositionScore = mtRandom();
> 
> *Randomization test has one big disadvantage: can not be used in many cases. When system does not produce enough signals each bar there is not much (if any) to choose from. Also, more importantly, MC randomization makes false assumption that all "trading opportunities" (signals) are equal. In many cases they are not. Pretty often our trading system has specific, deterministic way to pick trades from many oppotunities by some sort of ranking/scoring. When system is using a score (rank) as a core component of the system (rotational systems do that) - if you replace analytic score of with random number you are just testing white noise not the system.*




I think it is an interesting discussion. I have used Tradesim in the past, Metastock was sadly lacking in portfolio backtesting and it filled that gap nicely. Metastock combined with Tradesim is a powerful coupling. I do use Amibroker now.  It is cool that it has the flexibility to perform either the MC Bootstrap approach or the MC Randomisation approach. Although I still have a lot of positive opinion of the Tradesim software.


----------



## Trendnomics

Reached new equity highs this week - bit of volatility in my resource holdings yesterday, but a nice recovery today:

*Private Portfolio: +62.46 % (Since 07-2013) ~ +17.6% per year return 

SMSF Portfolio: +68.38 % (Since 07-2013) ~ +19.0% per year return*


----------



## Trendnomics

Guess which one a robust trend-following strategy is? Hint: The colour of money.


----------



## Trendnomics

I thought I'd share a private message response:



			
				##### said:
			
		

> Hi Trendnomics,
> 
> I see you have a lot of knowledge on this topic. Do you have any books/courses/ideas recommandations to dive deep into this topic? Up until this moment I bought Amibroker, Premium data and 2 books of Nick Radge - Weekend Trend Trader and Unholy Grails. But I feel something is missing, I don't have confidence in WTT for example. How can I load large amount of cash in a WTT strategy if I don't have enough confidence in it? Will it survive in a 1929 scenario? How a bout a Japan flat market like scenario? Open ended questions for which I need to do more study. Any hints highlt appreciated!
> 
> Thank you,
> #####




Hey #######,

Thanks for the private message.

The best advice I can give, is to put a lot of time into back-testing. You really need to understand what different system parameters will do. I am self taught, have never read a trading book in my life, but I have spent A LOT of time back-testing and performing statistical analysis. 

Once your knowledge is built, you need to design your own system. This will provide you with a fundamental confidence to see it through the hard times. Successful trend-following is all about confidence in your system, the market will test you, if you lack confidence you will abort your system and look for the next best thing. Successful systematic trend-following is like getting married, you have to pick the "right" person (system) and then stick with it through thick and thin. All systematic trend-following systems require a few years (depending on your time-frame), for the positive expectancy to propagate.

A robust un-leveraged trend-following system, will easily survive the 1929 scenario. The system will go into a draw-down, but after the draw-down it will flourish and the subsequent gains would be far more than the draw-down. Remember robust trend-following is "anti-fragile" (i.e. loses a head in volatility but grows two back after). As for a flat Japan-like market, there are always businesses that grow in a "flat" economy. A trend-following system will seek out those high-performing businesses and out-perform the overall market.


----------



## Trendnomics

Portfolio updates: I am killing the pig at the moment - new equity highs - currently like printing money and suffering from reduced motivation in my day job (earning petty cash, compared to daily gains). Normally when it goes this well the next draw-down is just around the corner. 
*
Private Portfolio: +66.09 % (Since 07-2013) ~+18.4% per year return 

SMSF Portfolio: +76.01 % (Since 07-2013) ~+20.7% per year return *

A quick snapshot of current open trades for each portfolio (excludes dividends):

*Private:*

TWE      - Open (50.73%) -  304 day trade
COH      - Open (23.98%) -  164 day trade
VTG      - Open (78.41%) -  157 day trade
SSM      - Open (15.13%) -  101 day trade
WOR      - Open (3.32%) -  42 day trade
CAT      - Open (6.5%) -  20 day trade
AAC      - Open (-0.16%) -  6 day trade
FMG      - Open (0.28%) -  0 day trade
RRL      - Open (120.05%) -  301 day trade
SAR      - Open (202.29%) -  266 day trade
CTD      - Open (17.79%) -  210 day trade
NAN      - Open (26.53%) -  142 day trade
RFG      - Open (6.27%) -  135 day trade
ORE      - Open (41.46%) -  129 day trade
GMM      - Open (35.43%) -  111 day trade
PGH      - Open (-5.27%) -  31 day trade

*SMSF:*

BAP      - Open (74.66%) -  485 day trade
TWE      - Open (50.15%) -  304 day trade
RRL      - Open (119.25%) -  301 day trade
SAR      - Open (201.12%) -  266 day trade
SKC      - Open (13.64%) -  210 day trade
ALL      - Open (60.55%) -  202 day trade
COH      - Open (23.17%) -  164 day trade
VTG      - Open (77.67%) -  157 day trade
NAN      - Open (25.9%) -  142 day trade
RFG      - Open (5.71%) -  135 day trade
GMM      - Open (35.7%) -  111 day trade
SSM      - Open (14.57%) -  101 day trade
FBU      - Open (10.24%) -  42 day trade
CL1      - Open (1%)     -  28 day trade
MND      - Open (4.52%) -  2 day trade
FMG      - Open (-0.53%) -  0 day trade


----------



## howardbandy

Greetings --

Re:  "A robust un-leveraged trend-following system, will easily survive the 1929 scenario. The system will go into a draw-down, but after the draw-down it will flourish and the subsequent gains would be far more than the draw-down."

35 years to recovery.  That is faith.

Best,
Howard


----------



## Trendnomics

howardbandy said:


> Greetings --
> 
> Re:  "A robust un-leveraged trend-following system, will easily survive the 1929 scenario. The system will go into a draw-down, but after the draw-down it will flourish and the subsequent gains would be far more than the draw-down."
> 
> 35 years to recovery.  That is faith.
> 
> Best,
> Howard




If you purely go by the index (the Dow Jones), then yes, it took the Dow Jones ~26 years (a long period, but who's counting) to recover:




But during that time, there would've been excellent micro trends within individual equities, which could've lead to great out-performance, if you were a systematic trend-follower - your draw-down recovery period would've been less than a few years. This is similar to what we are experiencing on the XAO index, post the 2008 crash:




The XAO is still a long way from recovery (going ~8 years now) - currently in a side-ways market - yet I'm catching some fantastic trends (as my profits show).

This is similar to back-test results, from tests I have performed on the 1987 crash and the long sideways market of Japan - micro "counter" trends exist in these time-periods.


----------



## howardbandy

Greetings --

I agree that trading the post 1929 period could have been profitable.  A set of rules indicating when to buy and when to sell would have been a requirement, as it is now.  

Having faith (belief without supporting evidence) is not enough.  Validation is a requirement for quantifiable confidence.    An important aspect of the rules of any learning model is that they are testable on data that has not been used in developing them.  The tests must show general learning -- recognizing a profitable and persistent signal among the noise in the data.  Postulating a model or fitting a model to the data is not sufficient.  Faith is not sufficient.

It is different this time in several important ways.  

Many people feel that WWII was responsible for rescuing the developed world's markets from the depression.  Whatever the reason for the recovery, holding through that drawdown was long (20 years or more) and painful (80% or higher).  Funds were not available until recovery.  If the money was needed for some other purpose, the exit was at a loss.  

From WWII through about 2000, the developed world had an advantage.  The US, for example, with 5% of the world's population, used / owned 25% of the world's resources.  Globalization is helping the remainder of the world to increase its standard of living.  For the world as a whole, that is a good thing.  For the developed world, not quite.  We can expect the ratio of 5%:25% to trend toward 5%:5% -- which implies a relative drop in standard of living of 80%.  

The quantitative easing policies implemented by governments throughout the world from 2008 to the present have literally forced funds into real estate, stocks, and bonds.  Very low and negative interest rates cannot continue indefinitely.  When interest rates return to normal, many people, including me, expect 100% of the increase in prices of real estate, stocks, and bonds, to be reversed.  Back to 2008 levels in all of those.  If we are lucky, that will be followed by 40 years of slow adjustment.  If unlucky, by 2 years of worldwide riots, then dark ages II.

Automation is replacing human labor.  Tasks from welding to review of legal documents to interpretation of xrays are being done by machines.  Done more accurately and less expensively.  Those jobs will not return.  

Global climate change.  Warming, rising sea level, changes in rainfall, wild fires, ...  Cities need to be relocated.  Changes in natural environments are happening too fast for natural adaptation.  For example, vast forests of trees die in a few years due to insect infestation due to warmer winters.  Even if the insects left, reforestation takes centuries.  All creatures that depended on those forests are displaced.  Perhaps extinct.

Capabilities of artificial intelligence are increasing exponentially.  Beware of the singularity.  It will arrive at some point in the future.  That will change everything.  

Back to trading.

Modeling 1929 hoping to apply whatever system worked then to current markets has no value.  Conditions, market rules, laws, ... are completely different.  I doubt that high enough quality data is available to even try.     

Financial markets are becoming more efficient.  Competition is increasing.  For a given level of risk (risk is the reason people stop trading), profit is lower.  Holding periods are shorter.  

I have a new book coming out in about two months.  I show that risk-normalized profit potential of any data series can be defined as a function of two variables: trade accuracy and holding period.  The sweet spot of profit potential has moved.  It is more important than ever to trade accurately (65% is about the minimum) and hold a short period of time (5 days is about the maximum).  Worthwhile profitable trading requires 75% accuracy and a holding period of one day -- maybe two.  Outside those ranges risk of drawdown is so great that position size is so low that profit is lower than alternative use of funds.  These are pretty much absolute limits determined by the data.  Applying a model to create a system to generate trades cannot improve those figures, only deteriorate them.  Of course, there will be periods when other techniques work.  But those are outside quantitative models and are in the realm of faith.

Competition from professional traders and trading companies is much greater.  Flash trades, dark pools, thousands of trading system developers with high quality education and experience, supercomputers, co-location, artificial intelligence, ....  

It is different now.  I am in no way criticizing anyone's success.  Just warning of some of the reasons to be cautious.

Best regards,
Howard


----------



## howardbandy

Greetings --

Every profitable trade is a trend following trade for the period the position is being held.  No matter how the trade is entered, we need the sell price to be higher than the buy price -- a trend.

Best,
Howard


----------



## peter2

I was astonished, flabbergasted and then stunned by those two posts. I'll recover soon.

All the best, Howard.


----------



## CanOz

Yeah....that's quite....dire Howard...


----------



## Trendnomics

howardbandy said:


> Greetings --
> 
> I agree that trading the post 1929 period could have been profitable.  A set of rules indicating when to buy and when to sell would have been a requirement, as it is now.
> 
> Having faith (belief without supporting evidence) is not enough.  Validation is a requirement for quantifiable confidence.    An important aspect of the rules of any learning model is that they are testable on data that has not been used in developing them.  The tests must show general learning -- recognizing a profitable and persistent signal among the noise in the data.  Postulating a model or fitting a model to the data is not sufficient.  Faith is not sufficient.
> 
> It is different this time in several important ways.
> 
> Many people feel that WWII was responsible for rescuing the developed world's markets from the depression.  Whatever the reason for the recovery, holding through that drawdown was long (20 years or more) and painful (80% or higher).  Funds were not available until recovery.  If the money was needed for some other purpose, the exit was at a loss.
> 
> From WWII through about 2000, the developed world had an advantage.  The US, for example, with 5% of the world's population, used / owned 25% of the world's resources.  Globalization is helping the remainder of the world to increase its standard of living.  For the world as a whole, that is a good thing.  For the developed world, not quite.  We can expect the ratio of 5%:25% to trend toward 5%:5% -- which implies a relative drop in standard of living of 80%.
> 
> The quantitative easing policies implemented by governments throughout the world from 2008 to the present have literally forced funds into real estate, stocks, and bonds.  Very low and negative interest rates cannot continue indefinitely.  When interest rates return to normal, many people, including me, expect 100% of the increase in prices of real estate, stocks, and bonds, to be reversed.  Back to 2008 levels in all of those.  If we are lucky, that will be followed by 40 years of slow adjustment.  If unlucky, by 2 years of worldwide riots, then dark ages II.
> 
> Automation is replacing human labor.  Tasks from welding to review of legal documents to interpretation of xrays are being done by machines.  Done more accurately and less expensively.  Those jobs will not return.
> 
> Global climate change.  Warming, rising sea level, changes in rainfall, wild fires, ...  Cities need to be relocated.  Changes in natural environments are happening too fast for natural adaptation.  For example, vast forests of trees die in a few years due to insect infestation due to warmer winters.  Even if the insects left, reforestation takes centuries.  All creatures that depended on those forests are displaced.  Perhaps extinct.
> 
> Capabilities of artificial intelligence are increasing exponentially.  Beware of the singularity.  It will arrive at some point in the future.  That will change everything.
> 
> Back to trading.
> 
> Modeling 1929 hoping to apply whatever system worked then to current markets has no value.  Conditions, market rules, laws, ... are completely different.  I doubt that high enough quality data is available to even try.
> 
> Financial markets are becoming more efficient.  Competition is increasing.  For a given level of risk (risk is the reason people stop trading), profit is lower.  Holding periods are shorter.
> 
> I have a new book coming out in about two months.  I show that risk-normalized profit potential of any data series can be defined as a function of two variables: trade accuracy and holding period.  The sweet spot of profit potential has moved.  It is more important than ever to trade accurately (65% is about the minimum) and hold a short period of time (5 days is about the maximum).  Worthwhile profitable trading requires 75% accuracy and a holding period of one day -- maybe two.  Outside those ranges risk of drawdown is so great that position size is so low that profit is lower than alternative use of funds.  These are pretty much absolute limits determined by the data.  Applying a model to create a system to generate trades cannot improve those figures, only deteriorate them.  Of course, there will be periods when other techniques work.  But those are outside quantitative models and are in the realm of faith.
> 
> Competition from professional traders and trading companies is much greater.  Flash trades, dark pools, thousands of trading system developers with high quality education and experience, supercomputers, co-location, artificial intelligence, ....
> 
> It is different now.  I am in no way criticizing anyone's success.  Just warning of some of the reasons to be cautious.
> 
> Best regards,
> Howard




There are a lot of economic factors to be pessimistic about, but being an eternal-pessimist (perma-bear) does not provide sufficient investment/trading opportunities, nor does it yield above average returns (or bring retirement any closer). 

I agree that great wars and government interventions have "exacerbated" the growth of the financial equity markets. But the growth we have witnessed, is only reflected in the form of equity market indexes. A far greater force is at play, when it comes to equity market index growth, and that is that an index itself is a trading-system. Equity indexes are elementary forms of trend-following (in terms of relative strength) - remove the weak, add/keep the strong (number of maintainable positions dependent on the index - i.e. top 20/50/100/200/300). 

Hence, even though equity index growth has appeared constant over the last ~100 years, the constitutes (positions) have been very fluid. New growth industries replaces the old industries, which gives further rise to the index, etc. Hence, equity market indexes will continue to rise indefinitely, as there are always new industries created and old ones being destroyed. Similarly, excellent trend-following opportunities will exist indefinitely.

Automation and artificial intelligence will boost a country's GDP and create new market sectors - after all, growth in GDP can only come from a boost in productivity. People were just as concerned about rudimentary automation during the industrial revolution - look where we are today.

Current quantitative easing policies are assisting with a "beautiful deleverage" - i.e. reducing the burden of debt in the most efficient manner. Doing the opposite would result in extreme social unrest. Once the global debt burdens have been reduced, a new super debt cycle will commence (the next boom). Un-leveraged forms of investing (including trend-following), can easily survive the debt cycles - but highly leverage speculative investing (for instance: negative gearing multiple properties) can experience complete wipe-outs. For more on economic cycles please see video below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0


----------



## tech/a

Howards on the money--excuse the pun.

Financial security is becoming more difficult
Not impossible. But I agree those who don't
Have the education the tools and the ability
To put the two together will have to rely more
On luck than good judgement.

Fortunately there are people like Howard around to
Shine the light forward to those who are capable
Of following and implementing.

Personally as a simple builder Howards level and. My
Ability are so wide apart I don't have the time or
Ability to catch up.

But I'll heed the words and do my best.


----------



## howardbandy

Greetings --

Re:
Automation and artificial intelligence will boost a country's GDP and create new market sectors - after all, growth in GDP can only come from a boost in productivity. 

The data show otherwise.  There may be growth, but it may not improve the lives of people.  

---------

Political candidates have been commenting about the loss of manufacturing in the US, and how if only we elect them they will return those jobs.  (My comments here are about the automation aspect -- the globalization aspect is different, but equally compelling.)

One of the financial journals I subscribe to had an article some months ago describing manufacturing in the US.  Complete with stats and charts, it showed that the output of manufacturing -- the dollar value of widgets produced -- has not declined.  But the hours worked by people have declined.  The difference is being made up by automation.  

An analogy I use is a welding shop.  Last year the shop had 10 employees -- a supervisor and 9 human welders.  This year the shop has 1 supervisor, 1 technician, 2 human welders, and 2 robots.  Six people have been replaced by 2 robots.  The robot's work is higher quality and higher quantity.  The shop is more profitable.  From the perspective of the shop owner, replacing people with automation was the right decision.  One welder got additional education and training and a promotion to technician.  The six people replaced will probably not ever work as welders again.

-------

I have been associated with artificial intelligence for over 50 years.  As a graduate student, I did some of the first-generation research on nearest neighbor models.  AI is automation on steroids.  Not just welding.  But many tasks that just a few years ago were thought to be automation-proof.  Interpreting x-rays, searching legal cases and writing summary of findings, managing drug interactions, handwriting recognition, facial recognition, speech recognition, self-driving cars, auto-pilot airplanes, travel arrangements, route planning, and the list goes on.  

One of my graduate professors did his own PhD research with Arthur Samuels.  In 1959, Dr. Samuels wrote a computer program that played checkers.  It was programmed with minimal information about the rules of checkers, but nothing about strategy.  It learned strategy on its own.  It learned to do something it was not programmed to do.  Today there is not an intellectual game where the best human can win against the best computer.  Checkers, bridge, chess, backgammon, go, Jeopardy -- for all, the world champion is a computer.  

I play backgammon on my computer using the GNU Backgammon program.  When I set the opponent (played by GNU) to have the skill of an expert human, I win more than lose.  When I set the opponent to be grandmaster, I very seldom win.    

The "event" where computers are champions of everything is called "singularity."  Computer capabilities are increasing at an exponential rate.  We humans are not very good at understanding exponential growth or estimating its expansion.  (Read Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast, and Slow")  

Popular authors and commentators are extremely naive about artificial intelligence.  There is a very common misconception that programs can only do what they have been programmed to do -- or that the people who program the intelligence into computers will ensure they have given the computers Asimov-like limitations.  Neither is accurate.  

Each additional task where a computer can perform as well as a human expert is additional evidence that the singularity is near.   It will not be pretty.  No civilization survives being discovered by a superior civilization -- ask the Incas about Pizarro, or any number of similar contacts.

-----------

Enough cheer for one day.

Stay safe,
Best,
Howard


----------



## kid hustlr

Wow


----------



## Trendnomics

howardbandy said:


> Greetings --
> 
> Re:
> Automation and artificial intelligence will boost a country's GDP and create new market sectors - after all, growth in GDP can only come from a boost in productivity.
> 
> The data show otherwise.  There may be growth, but it may not improve the lives of people.
> 
> ---------
> 
> Political candidates have been commenting about the loss of manufacturing in the US, and how if only we elect them they will return those jobs.  (My comments here are about the automation aspect -- the globalization aspect is different, but equally compelling.)
> 
> One of the financial journals I subscribe to had an article some months ago describing manufacturing in the US.  Complete with stats and charts, it showed that the output of manufacturing -- the dollar value of widgets produced -- has not declined.  But the hours worked by people have declined.  The difference is being made up by automation.
> 
> An analogy I use is a welding shop.  Last year the shop had 10 employees -- a supervisor and 9 human welders.  This year the shop has 1 supervisor, 1 technician, 2 human welders, and 2 robots.  Six people have been replaced by 2 robots.  The robot's work is higher quality and higher quantity.  The shop is more profitable.  From the perspective of the shop owner, replacing people with automation was the right decision.  One welder got additional education and training and a promotion to technician.  The six people replaced will probably not ever work as welders again.
> 
> -------
> 
> I have been associated with artificial intelligence for over 50 years.  As a graduate student, I did some of the first-generation research on nearest neighbor models.  AI is automation on steroids.  Not just welding.  But many tasks that just a few years ago were thought to be automation-proof.  Interpreting x-rays, searching legal cases and writing summary of findings, managing drug interactions, handwriting recognition, facial recognition, speech recognition, self-driving cars, auto-pilot airplanes, travel arrangements, route planning, and the list goes on.
> 
> One of my graduate professors did his own PhD research with Arthur Samuels.  In 1959, Dr. Samuels wrote a computer program that played checkers.  It was programmed with minimal information about the rules of checkers, but nothing about strategy.  It learned strategy on its own.  It learned to do something it was not programmed to do.  Today there is not an intellectual game where the best human can win against the best computer.  Checkers, bridge, chess, backgammon, go, Jeopardy -- for all, the world champion is a computer.
> 
> I play backgammon on my computer using the GNU Backgammon program.  When I set the opponent (played by GNU) to have the skill of an expert human, I win more than lose.  When I set the opponent to be grandmaster, I very seldom win.
> 
> The "event" where computers are champions of everything is called "singularity."  Computer capabilities are increasing at an exponential rate.  We humans are not very good at understanding exponential growth or estimating its expansion.  (Read Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast, and Slow")
> 
> Popular authors and commentators are extremely naive about artificial intelligence.  There is a very common misconception that programs can only do what they have been programmed to do -- or that the people who program the intelligence into computers will ensure they have given the computers Asimov-like limitations.  Neither is accurate.
> 
> Each additional task where a computer can perform as well as a human expert is additional evidence that the singularity is near.   It will not be pretty.  No civilization survives being discovered by a superior civilization -- ask the Incas about Pizarro, or any number of similar contacts.
> 
> -----------
> 
> Enough cheer for one day.
> 
> Stay safe,
> Best,
> Howard




Howard if you have any scientific data that counters my post below, then please provide.

AI/automation will eventually lead to improved productivity -> increased GDP -> new industry sectors and the destruction of old industry sectors (repeat of history). The more productive we are, the less we have to work - again a repeat of history (just look at the history of urbanisation - most of the population use to live on farms, with a 7 day working week + low living standard). Increasing our productivity is the only way forward (to continue market growth and deleverage the current super debt cycle). Also, increased productivity is what raises living standards.

Just to repeat again, automation and artificial intelligence will lead to a loss of jobs, but will boost productivity + living standards - *people were just as concerned about rudimentary automation during the industrial revolution - look where we are today.* Will it really help to re-employ cap screw'ers and get rid of all the machines? Also, should we get rid of computers and re-employ 3 people (each armed with a typewriter and calculator), in lieu of each computer (imagine all the jobs created!!). But why stop there? Get rid of the calculators as well, and replace them with sliding abacus' - that will create another ~10 jobs for each destroyed computer + calculator! You can apply this analogy to any modern day machine/industry - for instance: the airline industry destroyed the shipping industry (especially the passenger sector), many jobs were lost and replaced by only a few - but productivity was increased!

The new industries that will sprout from the AI/automation boom will contribute back to the economy - one man's spending (company/organisation) is another man's earnings - I really hope for the sake of Australia's prosperity we end up in the forefront of this new ever developing industry. And just like before, new equity listings will emerge with new trends - ready for the picking by the ever committed trend-followers.

Howard, from your recent posts, it can be deducted that you believe the future success of trend-following strategies could be poor/limited, due to changing market factors - i.e. the future equity market performances will not repeat the past 100 year upward trajectory. You imply that, one of these factors could be the full scale introduction of automation/AI and the consequent job-losses. Yet the past 100 year upward trajectory in the equity markets, was mainly due to the introduction of new productivity boosting industries (similar to the aforementioned). Why would it be different this time?

Howard, how has your bleak view of the future served you? Has it improved your investment returns or diminished them? Is this why you mainly focus on short term trading - to avoid prolonged exposure to the doomed future?

As an engineer (my day job), I champion/welcome artificial intelligence and automation (and any other industries that may lead to productivity growth - I hope/believe a 4 day working week will become standard in the next 10 years) - it's easy to fear progress, most people fear change, but where would we be without it?


----------



## Trendnomics

tech/a said:


> Fortunately there are people like Howard around to
> *Shine the light* forward to those who are capable
> Of following and implementing.




You sure it's light? 

"An optimist may see a light where there is none, but why must the pessimist always run to blow it out?" - RenÃ© Descartes.


----------



## Trendnomics

Back to trading results:

I did a quick check of each portfolio's performance for the past year (from today's date) - *one year's return*:
*
Private Portfolio: +68.77 % (Since 31-07-2015) 

SMSF Portfolio: +62.93 % (Since 31-07-2015)*

That's trend-following for you - two year's of pain (break-even) followed by an extraordinary year of returns. If I posted the good year's returns in isolation, then this thread would've been far more popular, with people frothing at the mouth (extrapolating the results) - similar to what I've observed on other threads. Concurrently, posting your results in $$$ and stating how you are going to spend your windfall of "dosh" (what car you are buying), seems to also invoke a great interest in a thread. Not hard to understand why spruikers have such an easy time luring in blind fish.

Keeping it real .


----------



## DeepState

Trendnomics said:


> Howard if you have any scientific data that counters my post below, then please provide.





Hope you don't mind if I respond.

All productivity is not equal.  Giving a farmer, who reaped wheat by hand, a harvestor is a huge gain if the labour released goes into something useful like teaching farming, engineering or birth control.  Being able to build two Pokemon games a year instead of one is a more questionable form of doubling productivity. Or how about pyramids built per month?

How the gains are deployed also matters.  Since the GFC, and even before, you will have noticed how gains to productivity have flowed to those with capital. Those who sell time for money have generally been increasingly squeezed out, unless they are the gold collars. The (less than) 1%.  There is once again a wealth aristocracy and then half the population of a place like Australia who would run out of money in two weeks if they lost their income.  And that's how you get Trump and the Far Right/Left in Europe.  White males, who bore the brunt of the hollowing out of the middle class in the US, are dying faster now.  Drugs, alcohol, suicide....all signs of productivity gains gone awry.  Productivity kept going up through all of this.  Wealth is relative as well as absolute.  Moving off subsistence farming is one kind of productivity and increasing vacuous consumerism is another. 

The productivity gains per hour and number of hours available from the productive population from demographics don't seem to accord with the terminal assumptions in equity valuations.  Check it out.  Some argue that we are in a post capital world, where earnings growth happens even without capital.  Perhaps, but the FinTech hubs are filled with ping pong tables, PacMan machines, bean bags....and capital-lite concepts that survive because of venture capital funding.

Having the choice to work less is great.  However, there are many people who now work less than a five day week....and desperately want more. The capital invested into their skills, which supposedly increased their productivity and potential for contribution to the economy, rots by the minute.  The desire to work less is quite mismatched to the opportunities to do so.  Former line workers in the auto factory are strangely hard to train into C++ programmers or general practitioners.  That's what you find when the Shumpeter effect closes one kind of industry and the new one created has low labour content and requires skills which bears no relation to the one on whom sunset has arrived.  Labour released is not redeployed....it often sits at home on welfare.

People work because it is a means of social cohesion.  Many of us work because we like to create something which is challenging.  The alternative in a post-work world is to watch Big Brother all day because all we will be doing is entertaining each other to pass the time.  GDP will be measured by Reality TV shows created per year and productivity calculations will track Taylor Swift Concerts per roadie hour. The rest will play cards.  Will a stable society emerge?  Uh, No. Just look at history of man.  Kings have everything.  Yet they want more. And many want to be King.

Even the super-rich are advised not to hand over too much to their kids for fear of them becoming unproductive members of society. Little is more galling than a trust fund baby who enjoys the spoils of success earned through nothing more than winning a genetic lottery, and yet acting as if it were entitled. For the sake of their kids, the rich are advised to keep them in a state of having to strive.

Work is more than production of goods and services that are estimated in GDP.  Deny significant parts of the population the ability or opportunity to work in decent jobs when they want or need it and you get riots and insurrection.

If ongoing productivity gains are spent and accrued the way they have been in the last decade, more productivity of the same brand is probably not something to hope for.  Quite possibly, it is better to slow it down a little and spread the gains around some more.

Productivity a good thing?  Yes, if carefully achieved and when gains are distributed in a way which balances incentive and unfairness.  No, if not.


----------



## minwa

Trendnomics said:


> Back to trading results:
> 
> I did a quick check of each portfolio's performance for the past year (from today's date) - *one year's return*:
> *
> Private Portfolio: +68.77 % (Since 31-07-2015)
> 
> SMSF Portfolio: +62.93 % (Since 31-07-2015)*
> 
> That's trend-following for you - two year's of pain (break-even) followed by an extraordinary year of returns. If I posted the good year's returns in isolation, then this thread would've been far more popular, with people frothing at the mouth (extrapolating the results) - similar to what I've observed on other threads. Concurrently, posting your results in $$$ and stating how you are going to spend your windfall of "dosh" (what car you are buying), seems to also invoke a great interest in a thread. Not hard to understand why spruikers have such an easy time luring in blind fish.
> 
> Keeping it real .




Lol a bit salty there ? But since you indirectly called me out, let's compare. I posted my account statements for 2014 & 2015 + first half of 2016, find it in my post history. Both years were over 50% and 2016 at 46% (I traded it over 50% for the year after posting the statement before my break, but let's just use 46%.) 

$100 x 50% x 50% x 46% = $328.5 = 228% return after compound over 3 years (2.5 actually but let's use 3)

Your last post on July 29 says 20.7% return pa is like 75% after compound after 3 years.

You said you have pain of 2 years of B/E. Mine was like 2 months. 

So you tell me, 228% over 2.5 years of smoother return vs 75% after 3 years of 2 B/E year and 1 outlier year is more exciting to viewers since that is what you are caring about lmao.

Any real trader or investor knows $ amount is important for scalability in this game. 

You are making "chump change compared to your trading" as an engineer and your system is "raining money" why have you not quit yet ? Obviously not because you love your job, as you said you are demotivated. Could it be you have no faith in your system to reproduce what it did ? If you do - why are you still working ?

Instead of crying over thread popularity why don't you go diversify over other markets less correlated to equities so you don't have to suffer through 2 year of pain B/E.


----------



## craft

DeepState said:


> Hope you don't mind if I respond.
> 
> All productivity is not equal.  Giving a farmer, who reaped wheat by hand, a harvestor is a huge gain if the labour released goes into something useful like teaching farming, engineering or birth control.  Being able to build two Pokemon games a year instead of one is a more questionable form of doubling productivity. Or how about pyramids built per month?
> 
> How the gains are deployed also matters.  Since the GFC, and even before, you will have noticed how gains to productivity have flowed to those with capital. Those who sell time for money have generally been increasingly squeezed out, unless they are the gold collars. The (less than) 1%.  There is once again a wealth aristocracy and then half the population of a place like Australia who would run out of money in two weeks if they lost their income.  And that's how you get Trump and the Far Right/Left in Europe.  White males, who bore the brunt of the hollowing out of the middle class in the US, are dying faster now.  Drugs, alcohol, suicide....all signs of productivity gains gone awry.  Productivity kept going up through all of this.  Wealth is relative as well as absolute.  Moving off subsistence farming is one kind of productivity and increasing vacuous consumerism is another.
> 
> The productivity gains per hour and number of hours available from the productive population from demographics don't seem to accord with the terminal assumptions in equity valuations.  Check it out.  Some argue that we are in a post capital world, where earnings growth happens even without capital.  Perhaps, but the FinTech hubs are filled with ping pong tables, PacMan machines, bean bags....and capital-lite concepts that survive because of venture capital funding.
> 
> Having the choice to work less is great.  However, there are many people who now work less than a five day week....and desperately want more. The capital invested into their skills, which supposedly increased their productivity and potential for contribution to the economy, rots by the minute.  The desire to work less is quite mismatched to the opportunities to do so.  Former line workers in the auto factory are strangely hard to train into C++ programmers or general practitioners.  That's what you find when the Shumpeter effect closes one kind of industry and the new one created has low labour content and requires skills which bears no relation to the one on whom sunset has arrived.  Labour released is not redeployed....it often sits at home on welfare.
> 
> People work because it is a means of social cohesion.  Many of us work because we like to create something which is challenging.  The alternative in a post-work world is to watch Big Brother all day because all we will be doing is entertaining each other to pass the time.  GDP will be measured by Reality TV shows created per year and productivity calculations will track Taylor Swift Concerts per roadie hour. The rest will play cards.  Will a stable society emerge?  Uh, No. Just look at history of man.  Kings have everything.  Yet they want more. And many want to be King.
> 
> Even the super-rich are advised not to hand over too much to their kids for fear of them becoming unproductive members of society. Little is more galling than a trust fund baby who enjoys the spoils of success earned through nothing more than winning a genetic lottery, and yet acting as if it were entitled. For the sake of their kids, the rich are advised to keep them in a state of having to strive.
> 
> Work is more than production of goods and services that are estimated in GDP.  Deny significant parts of the population the ability or opportunity to work in decent jobs when they want or need it and you get riots and insurrection.
> 
> If ongoing productivity gains are spent and accrued the way they have been in the last decade, more productivity of the same brand is probably not something to hope for.  Quite possibly, it is better to slow it down a little and spread the gains around some more.
> 
> Productivity a good thing?  Yes, if carefully achieved and when gains are distributed in a way which balances incentive and unfairness.  No, if not.




Thanks for this post.

Split growth and productivity from wealth equality and you are only viewing the picture on 2D.

At least negative interest rates ease the moneatery systems imperative for growth, perhaps that will give us head room to become more  decerning in the productivity we persue, but then again profit at any cost may not come from the requirement of growth in a posative interest rate money, maybe greed is just inherent in  us  when  we  see ourselves  more as individuals rather than codependent on community and environment and nothing will change until..............


----------



## Trendnomics

DeepState said:


> Hope you don't mind if I respond.
> 
> All productivity is not equal.  Giving a farmer, who reaped wheat by hand, a harvestor is a huge gain if the labour released goes into something useful like teaching farming, engineering or birth control.  Being able to build two Pokemon games a year instead of one is a more questionable form of doubling productivity. Or how about pyramids built per month?
> 
> How the gains are deployed also matters.  Since the GFC, and even before, you will have noticed how gains to productivity have flowed to those with capital. Those who sell time for money have generally been increasingly squeezed out, unless they are the gold collars. The (less than) 1%.  There is once again a wealth aristocracy and then half the population of a place like Australia who would run out of money in two weeks if they lost their income.  And that's how you get Trump and the Far Right/Left in Europe.  White males, who bore the brunt of the hollowing out of the middle class in the US, are dying faster now.  Drugs, alcohol, suicide....all signs of productivity gains gone awry.  Productivity kept going up through all of this.  Wealth is relative as well as absolute.  Moving off subsistence farming is one kind of productivity and increasing vacuous consumerism is another.
> 
> The productivity gains per hour and number of hours available from the productive population from demographics don't seem to accord with the terminal assumptions in equity valuations.  Check it out.  Some argue that we are in a post capital world, where earnings growth happens even without capital.  Perhaps, but the FinTech hubs are filled with ping pong tables, PacMan machines, bean bags....and capital-lite concepts that survive because of venture capital funding.
> 
> Having the choice to work less is great.  However, there are many people who now work less than a five day week....and desperately want more. The capital invested into their skills, which supposedly increased their productivity and potential for contribution to the economy, rots by the minute.  The desire to work less is quite mismatched to the opportunities to do so.  Former line workers in the auto factory are strangely hard to train into C++ programmers or general practitioners.  That's what you find when the Shumpeter effect closes one kind of industry and the new one created has low labour content and requires skills which bears no relation to the one on whom sunset has arrived.  Labour released is not redeployed....it often sits at home on welfare.
> 
> People work because it is a means of social cohesion.  Many of us work because we like to create something which is challenging.  The alternative in a post-work world is to watch Big Brother all day because all we will be doing is entertaining each other to pass the time.  GDP will be measured by Reality TV shows created per year and productivity calculations will track Taylor Swift Concerts per roadie hour. The rest will play cards.  Will a stable society emerge?  Uh, No. Just look at history of man.  Kings have everything.  Yet they want more. And many want to be King.
> 
> Even the super-rich are advised not to hand over too much to their kids for fear of them becoming unproductive members of society. Little is more galling than a trust fund baby who enjoys the spoils of success earned through nothing more than winning a genetic lottery, and yet acting as if it were entitled. For the sake of their kids, the rich are advised to keep them in a state of having to strive.
> 
> Work is more than production of goods and services that are estimated in GDP.  Deny significant parts of the population the ability or opportunity to work in decent jobs when they want or need it and you get riots and insurrection.
> 
> If ongoing productivity gains are spent and accrued the way they have been in the last decade, more productivity of the same brand is probably not something to hope for.  Quite possibly, it is better to slow it down a little and spread the gains around some more.
> 
> Productivity a good thing?  Yes, if carefully achieved and when gains are distributed in a way which balances incentive and unfairness.  No, if not.




Thank you for your contribution.


----------



## Trendnomics

minwa said:


> Lol a bit salty there ? But since you indirectly called me out, let's compare. I posted my account statements for 2014 & 2015 + first half of 2016, find it in my post history. Both years were over 50% and 2016 at 46% (I traded it over 50% for the year after posting the statement before my break, but let's just use 46%.)
> 
> $100 x 50% x 50% x 46% = $328.5 = 228% return after compound over 3 years (2.5 actually but let's use 3)
> 
> Your last post on July 29 says 20.7% return pa is like 75% after compound after 3 years.
> 
> You said you have pain of 2 years of B/E. Mine was like 2 months.
> 
> So you tell me, 228% over 2.5 years of smoother return vs 75% after 3 years of 2 B/E year and 1 outlier year is more exciting to viewers since that is what you are caring about lmao.
> 
> Any real trader or investor knows $ amount is important for scalability in this game.
> 
> You are making "chump change compared to your trading" as an engineer and your system is "raining money" why have you not quit yet ? Obviously not because you love your job, as you said you are demotivated. Could it be you have no faith in your system to reproduce what it did ? If you do - why are you still working ?
> 
> Instead of crying over thread popularity why don't you go diversify over other markets less correlated to equities so you don't have to suffer through 2 year of pain B/E.




I was purely stating an observation. 

In response, please see the following video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYsXc3hqgEE


----------



## Trendnomics

Portfolio updates: Another solid week of gains. 

The positions in mining (SAR, RRL, FMG, ORE, GXY) and associated engineering services (WOR, RCR, MND), contributing to most of the gains.

*Private Portfolio: +71.03 % (Since 07-2013) ~+19.0% per year return

SMSF Portfolio: +78.19 % (Since 07-2013) ~+20.6% per year return *


----------



## minwa

Trendnomics said:


> I was purely stating an observation.
> 
> In response, please see the following video:
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYsXc3hqgEE




Ahhh yes 2 years of stuffing around break even before one year of gain is a sure crowd pleaser, no wonder this thread is massively popular. 

I make a habit of calling out trading/investing BS on this forum - this is one. Up to readers to decide.


----------



## Trendnomics

minwa said:


> Ahhh yes 2 years of stuffing around break even before one year of gain is a sure crowd pleaser, no wonder this thread is massively popular.
> 
> I make a habit of calling out trading/investing BS on this forum - this is one. Up to readers to decide.




Only time will tell.


----------



## minwa

Trendnomics said:


> Only time will tell.




Tell what ? Lol you have enough crap in various threads posts already


----------



## soso

minwa said:


> Ahhh yes 2 years of stuffing around break even before one year of gain is a sure crowd pleaser, no wonder this thread is massively popular.
> 
> I make a habit of calling out trading/investing BS on this forum - this is one. Up to readers to decide.




About "2 years of stuffing around break even" I couldn't care less, just watch the other trendfollowers how they're doing. See for example Radge and his systems, I think he did much worse than T. Well I don't have exact figures since Rage removed the actual percentages out of the performance page and only left in there some nice looking charts. 

I for for one find this thread very informative, so please if you don't like don't post trash. Tx.


----------



## minwa

soso said:


> I for for one find this thread very informative, so please if you don't like don't post trash. Tx.




Awww you should've popped up earlier, when he was crying this thread not getting attention.


----------



## Trendnomics

A few trades closed in the past week - the most profitable being Treasury Wine Estates (TWE):

*312 Day Trade : +47.2% Profit* (Includes a Dividend + Renounce-able Rights Sale).


----------



## Trendnomics

Portfolio updates: Was down this week, but had a good mid-week recovery - SMSF portfolio on new high:

*Private Portfolio: +70.91 % (Since 07-2013) ~+18.99% per year return

SMSF Portfolio: +78.39 % (Since 07-2013) ~+20.65% per year return* 

Due to an upcoming extended holiday, I'll be limiting the number of future updates (until further notice).


----------



## Trendnomics

Busy preparing for a holiday, but have time to post a quick update (especially considering the excellent week) - both portfolio's on new equity highs (holding WebJet in SMSF ):

*Private Portfolio: +74.18 %

SMSF Portfolio: +83.83 %*

Compared my returns to an accumulation index, and was surprised at the *extreme* out-performance my system has achieved:


----------



## Newt

I think if you superimpose the XSO (small ords) part of the mystery is explained Trendnomics.  Small and mid caps have exploded >30 over the last 10 months - over 3 times XAO performance.

Certainly happy times for trend following.  Fingers crossed mean reversion doesn't gate crash us any time soon 

Have a good break...


----------



## Trendnomics

Newt said:


> I think if you superimpose the XSO (small ords) part of the mystery is explained Trendnomics.  Small and mid caps have exploded >30 over the last 10 months - over 3 times XAO performance.
> 
> Certainly happy times for trend following.  Fingers crossed mean reversion doesn't gate crash us any time soon
> 
> Have a good break...




Thanks for the post Newt. 

The recent XSO recovery has certainly been impressive, but the index's return over my trading period is only ~30%:




On a side note, the next draw-down is just around the corner .


----------



## Wyatt

I have the $XSOA up around 45% since 1/07/13. 

View attachment 67816


Nevertheless, a great run for trend followers for sure. The following trend following profit distribution is over the same period. (Simulation only which does not count for much, especially $'s)

View attachment 67815


----------



## Trendnomics

Current biggest open profit trade (for both portfolio's) - SAR.asx (+202% profit):


----------



## Wysiwyg

Those long periods of being under water don't phase you? Like nearly two years! Our market bounce in January certainly gave your portfolio a boost. A bit like rain after a long drought.


----------



## Trendnomics

Wysiwyg said:


> Those long periods of being under water don't phase you? Like nearly two years! Our market bounce in January certainly gave your portfolio a boost. A bit like rain after a long drought.




At times it was painful - in particular when I lost my full time job (redundancy - end of mining boom). But my strong fundamental knowledge of my system, ensured that I continued trading my system in a disciplined and consistent manner. It's Murphy's law, that I suffered the longest draw-down in my system's history, during live trading (i.e. out-of-sample) - but the experience has greatly contributed to my psychological conditioning.

Currently "suffering" a new draw-down, while on holiday (for the Private Portfolio I have lost 5 times more than the cost of my holiday)     :

*Private Portfolio: +60.53 %

SMSF Portfolio: +77.22 %*

The market giveth and the market taketh, but overall the give will be more than the take, when you apply a positive expectant system in a disciplined and consistent manner.


----------



## Trendnomics

Portfolio updates: Back from my island break. Portfolio's have slightly recovered since my last post, dividends have kicked in, but I have also suffered a quick (17 day trade), -29% loss on SMX.asx (for the private portfolio).
*
Private Portfolio: +64.65 %

SMSF Portfolio: +81.36 %*

A quick snapshot of current open trades for each portfolio (*excludes dividends*):

*Private:*

COH      - Open (29.19%) -  208 day trade
VTG      - Open (98.61%) -  201 day trade
SSM      - Open (38.44%) -  145 day trade
WOR      - Open (16.56%) -  86 day trade
CAT      - Open (-1.57%) -  64 day trade
AAC      - Open (-18.1%) -  50 day trade
FMG      - Open (7.44%) -  44 day trade
FXJ2      - Open (-6.46%) -  33 day trade
RRL      - Open (118.92%) -  345 day trade
SAR      - Open (144.69%) -  310 day trade
NAN      - Open (43.11%) -  186 day trade
PGH      - Open (3.13%) -  75 day trade
RCR      - Open (25.67%) -  40 day trade
SVW      - Open (15.79%) -  37 day trade
RFG2      - Open (-2.03%) -  10 day trade
FNP      - Open (-2.4%) -  5 day trade

*SMSF:*

BAP      - Open (87.84%) -  529 day trade
RRL      - Open (118.12%) -  345 day trade
SAR      - Open (143.69%) -  310 day trade
SKC2    - Open (8.61%) -  254 day trade
ALL      - Open (53.22%) -  246 day trade
COH      - Open (28.37%) -  208 day trade
VTG      - Open (97.82%) -  201 day trade
NAN      - Open (42.43%) -  186 day trade
SSM      - Open (37.82%) -  145 day trade
FBU      - Open (32.58%) -  86 day trade
CL1      - Open (20.65%) -  72 day trade
MND      - Open (-17.41%) -  46 day trade
FMG      - Open (6.59%) -  44 day trade
WEB      - Open (34.5%) -  37 day trade
GMA      - Open (-12.39%) -  30 day trade
SIQ2      - Open (-5.5%) -  22 day trade


----------



## Trendnomics

Lost five figures today. 

Time to lock-up the caveman and put on some steel undies.


----------



## Trendnomics

Trendnomics said:


> Lost five figures today.
> 
> Time to lock-up the caveman and put on some steel undies.


----------



## Trendnomics

Quick portfolios update: Private portfolio made quite a recovery after Monday's shock. The SMSF portfolio is avoiding all the bad trades.

*Private Portfolio: +63.35 %

SMSF Portfolio: +82.22 %*


----------



## Trendnomics

For the Private Portfolio, one of the rare occasions when a stop-loss is hit:




The Whipsaw Song


----------



## jjbinks

nice work

Do you use a index filter?


----------



## Trendnomics

jjbinks said:


> nice work
> 
> Do you use a index filter?




Thanks for your question. 

Short answer: No.

Long answer: I have carefully considered the option of using an Index Filter. I have done plenty of back-testing with and without an Index Filter. My conclusion is that using an Index Filter will provide a "smoother" equity curve, but unfortunately there are no free lunches - Index Filters tend to reduce overall system returns.


----------



## jjbinks

can ask a few more questions?

When you refer to maximum drawdown in your first post are you referring to the average value or the maximum drawdown which is produced in montearlo testing?

Also what targets do you use in optimisation. I suspect you wouldn't use CAR/MDD given you don't seem to worried about drawdown of 48%.

Cheers

Thanks for your help slowly getting closer to a system I am happy with!


----------



## Newt

Any updates TrendN?
Oct 15 to Aug 16 was trend trading paradise, but expect its been tough going last 3 months without any index filtering?  

Hope you're still going strong and hopefully still hooked into a few long term winners.


----------



## Trendnomics

Newt said:


> Any updates TrendN?
> Oct 15 to Aug 16 was trend trading paradise, but expect its been tough going last 3 months without any index filtering?
> 
> Hope you're still going strong and hopefully still hooked into a few long term winners.




Been very busy - recently received additional capital.

All things considered, the portfolio's are performing extremely well (still outperforming the index significantly) - a lot of profit taking:

*Private Portfolio: +57.94 %

SMSF Portfolio: +66.69 % *


----------



## jjbinks

Trendnomics said:


> Been very busy - recently received additional capital.
> 
> All things considered, the portfolio's are performing extremely well (still outperforming the index significantly) - a lot of profit taking:
> 
> *Private Portfolio: +57.94 %
> 
> SMSF Portfolio: +66.69 % *
> 
> View attachment 68780
> 
> 
> View attachment 68781





Very nice results 
Its interesting how you dipped down to 20+ DD in your first year or so of trading then have clawed back quite nicely. (I guess it shows the importance of sticking to your system if it is working within parameters you expect. But I'm sure it takes guts!)
Congrats!


----------



## Newt

Yes, that bodes well if you've kept flat or climbing in recent conditions.  Well done.


----------



## tech/a

jjbinks said:


> Very nice results
> *Its interesting how you dipped down to 20+ DD in your first year or so of trading then have clawed back quite nicely*. (I guess it shows the importance of sticking to your system if it is working within parameters you expect. But I'm sure it takes guts!)
> Congrats!




*Initial* drawdowns are common if not inevitable.

Speaking in general terms the initial purchase of a portfolio
will see say 10-20 stocks purchased. Some will do nothing
A few will fail some will go immediately into profit.

Long term systems take time to establish a closed profit.
Mine have an average hold of just under a year. In that time
approx. 10 others will fail as I deduct and add to my portfolio.

Once a portfolio gets moving you see changes in the equity curve
as more stocks in the portfolio hold and are closed at a profit.

In some cases where you compound profits with your initial equity
you also get that effect showing in your portfolio if it is profitable.

So I think the results (equity curve/drawdown) are simply in the evolution 
of a profitable long term system.


----------



## Trendnomics

Considering the recent volatility, today was a great day to be fully invested! 

Webjet was my best performing holding for the day.


----------



## Trendnomics

Vita Group (VTG): One of the recent trades I closed (+40% profit, if dividends included) - gave back plenty of open profit - also PLENTY of recent volatility:


----------



## Trendnomics

Vocus Communications: More recent volatility on a closed trade. What can I say, sometimes your exit can be damn near perfect - +24.03% Profit (Includes a Dividend + Renounce-able Rights Sale). The trend is no longer your friend on this one (unless shorted)!


----------



## Boggo

Trendnomics said:


> Vocus Communications: More recent volatility on a closed trade. What can I say, sometimes your exit can be damn near perfect - +24.03% Profit (Includes a Dividend + Renounce-able Rights Sale). The trend is no longer your friend on this one (unless shorted)!




Nice work, KISS principle. Looks like a profile view of Niagara Falls since the heads up in August.

(click to expand - Weekly chart)


----------



## Trendnomics

Finally a solid day of gains - Santa Rally?:

*Private Portfolio: +60.07 %

SMSF Portfolio: +68.65 %*

Some of the best daily gainers in my portfolios:


----------



## jjbinks

hey trendonomics

how long do you hold each position on average


----------



## Trendnomics

jjbinks said:


> hey trendonomics
> 
> how long do you hold each position on average




From back-test data and live trading:

Winning Trades Average Holding Time: 220 Days
Losing Trades Average Holding Time: 80 Days

PS: Please remove that "o" from my name: {_The English suffix -nomics is derived from the Greek νόμος nomos, meaning "law."_} 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/-nomics


----------



## OmegaTrader

Really nice thread!!

Thank you for being so open and displaying the data

Also really interesting debate on singularity ahaha

We are not there yet.

*My question is on a yearly basis*

What is your standard deviation ?

What is your geometric return?

What is your correlation with the market?


Also if you have calculated this already

What is your beta and alpha

*If not I would be happy with a data dump *

*All that is needed is when the trade is opened,closed and return

I can infer the rest.*

I hope that is not too much of a ask.

Thanks and keep up the good work.


----------



## OmegaTrader

Trendnomics said:


> From back-test data and live trading:
> 
> Winning Trades Average Holding Time: 220 Days
> Losing Trades Average Holding Time: 80 Days
> 
> PS: Please remove that "o" from my name: {_The English suffix -nomics is derived from the Greek νόμος nomos, meaning "law."_}
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/-nomics




hello anyone home????


----------



## Wyatt

Being a trend follower myself, not unlike the OP here and with recent reported under performance of most trend follower systems , I got to kicking around a few sites and can across the concept of comparing an equity curve to the index in this case $XAO, to look for past periods of under/out performance since 2005. Clearly differing styles of investment go in and out of sync, with larger caps and REITS doing better atm.

FWIW My findings are: 
2005 1st half was generally inline with the market whilst the 2nd half under performed, 
2006 saw out performance from Jan-May, rest of year inline, 
2007 Jan-Aug out performance and again in Dec, 
2008 Feb-June large out performance, followed by heavy losses in the 2nd half, 10 % under performed
2009 Mar-May out performance, June- July under performance and Oct-Dec under performed
2010 Equity levels stable through 1st half and did really well in 2nd half
2011 Volatile year broadly inline, with 5% under performance overall
2012 1st half inline and 10% out performance in 2nd half,
2013 1st half inline and 10% out performance in 2nd half, again.
2014 Started well, Mar-April under performed, great July and rest inline
2015 1st half inline and large out performance in 2nd half, particularly September
2016 Great Mar-July, poor August, good September and under performed Nov and Dec,
2017 Jan OK and Feb -April under performed so far.

So it seems the below par performance since later last year is just another variation of normal market behavior and will probably turn around, if world tensions don't distract too much.


----------



## Trendnomics

Been very busy - thought I would give a quick update on the portfolios. I managed to scrape together some "open" returns (open profits + closed profits + dividend returns) for particular dates and created new performance graphs using this information - the "open" return information was obtained from monthly back-ups of my performance tracking sheets. Unfortunately, I only implemented an "open" profits feature for my sheets in 2015, hence the "open" profit information is not available for my entire trading period. 

Private Portfolio Graph:




SMSF Portfolio Graph:




Current performance (as at market close 06/10/17):

*Private Portfolio: +65.62 %

SMSF Portfolio: +77.07 % *


----------



## Newt

Really appreciate you sharing that TN.  Over a similar period to what you have graphed my open+closed equity curve is of remarkably similar shape, but went deeper into DD after the July/Aug 2016 high (may have to go looking to see what difference dividends makes though).  In fact that DD prompted more work on exits in my weekly systems, which was hopefully robust rather than fitted.  Very helpful to see how another trend follower has gone over this longer period - your info gives me more hope those tweaks were reasonable, as the expected improvement was in line with your graphs.

What is your starting date for performance returns off the left of these graphs?  From memory and thread it was about 2013 you started?

This sort of specific information tends to be rare on forums.  I think you're succeeding in doing what you originally said you'd do - giving back to the ASF community.  One of the big questions new traders have is "how much could I earn", and you're showing what is feasible after what was no doubt many years of learning and hard work.


----------



## Trendnomics

Newt said:


> Really appreciate you sharing that TN.  Over a similar period to what you have graphed my open+closed equity curve is of remarkably similar shape, but went deeper into DD after the July/Aug 2016 high (may have to go looking to see what difference dividends makes though).  In fact that DD prompted more work on exits in my weekly systems, which was hopefully robust rather than fitted.  Very helpful to see how another trend follower has gone over this longer period - your info gives me more hope those tweaks were reasonable, as the expected improvement was in line with your graphs.
> 
> What is your starting date for performance returns off the left of these graphs?  From memory and thread it was about 2013 you started?
> 
> This sort of specific information tends to be rare on forums.  I think you're succeeding in doing what you originally said you'd do - giving back to the ASF community.  One of the big questions new traders have is "how much could I earn", and you're showing what is feasible after what was no doubt many years of learning and hard work.




Thanks for your kind response.

Private Portfolio Start-Date: 08/05/13
SMSF Portfolio Start-Date: 24/07/13

No changes were made to the system since the start-dates.


----------



## Trendnomics

A quick snapshot of current open trades for each portfolio (*excludes dividends*):

*Private:*

CGC - Open (27.69%) -  213 day trade
A2M - Open (123.34%) -  170 day trade
IMD - Open (-0.15%) -  38 day trade
BPT - Open (4.17%) -  10 day trade
FPH - Open (11.09%) -  122 day trade
APX - Open (41.89%) -  107 day trade
ALQ - Open (3.76%) -  93 day trade
UPD - Open (17.44%) -  85 day trade
BAL - Open (-3.17%) -  51 day trade
SAR - Open (-6.24%) -  51 day trade
NWH - Open (24.25%) -  50 day trade
NCZ - Open (49.01%) -  44 day trade
OZL - Open (-2.11%) -  39 day trade
OFX - Open (-14.58%) -  26 day trade
MTS - Open (-11.11%) -  25 day trade
LVH - Open (-0.15%) -  5 day trade

*SMSF:*

MND - Open (23.99%) -  214 day trade
CGC - Open (27.48%) -  214 day trade
A2M - Open (117.99%) -  173 day trade
UPD - Open (18.71%) -  89 day trade
FLT - Open (-1.7%) -  86 day trade
PNC - Open (-2.68%) -  75 day trade
XRO - Open (11.85%) -  66 day trade
BAL - Open (-2.55%) -  54 day trade
SAR - Open (-6.52%) -  52 day trade
SIQ - Open (10.62%) -  45 day trade
OZL - Open (-6.59%) -  39 day trade
APX - Open (17.63%) -  38 day trade
IMD - Open (-0.71%) -  38 day trade
MTS - Open (-12%) -  27 day trade
WHC - Open (1.14%) -  26 day trade
LOV - Open (-1.74%) -  6 day trade


----------



## Trendnomics

Using Esuperfund's nifty reporting features (for SMSF Portfolio):


----------



## Wyatt

Newt said:


> Really appreciate you sharing that TN.  Over a similar period to what you have graphed my open+closed equity curve is of remarkably similar shape, but went deeper into DD after the July/Aug 2016 high (may have to go looking to see what difference dividends makes though).  In fact that DD prompted more work on exits in my weekly systems, which was hopefully robust rather than fitted.  Very helpful to see how another trend follower has gone over this longer period - your info gives me more hope those tweaks were reasonable, as the expected improvement was in line with your graphs.
> 
> What is your starting date for performance returns off the left of these graphs?  From memory and thread it was about 2013 you started?
> 
> This sort of specific information tends to be rare on forums.  I think you're succeeding in doing what you originally said you'd do - giving back to the ASF community.  One of the big questions new traders have is "how much could I earn", and you're showing what is feasible after what was no doubt many years of learning and hard work.




Hi Newt,
Fwiw, I have thrown in a chart of my own. Looks like the trend following systems we are comparing here are similar in their reaction to the vagaries of the market at any particular time. The movement of money collectively into a broad group of stocks, leading to longer term trends, seems occurs at the same time (at least for peeps following the XAO) and hence the similar performance curves, despite variations in portfolio holdings over time. At other times trend following (and mean reversion) performance wallows around aimlessly with no direction, with players torn between following their system and trying to avoid the unseen uppercuts, waiting for the momentum/money to return.

Which of course leads to the question of how best to time when to be in and when to be out of the market, the ultimate indicator if you will. It is not a simple index MA as performance in various sectors
can come at any time. Despite the saying that the best stocks go in your favour straight away, a close stop loss does not seem to improve performance.

Maybe the return of Trendnomics to the forum is such an indicator!


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## Newt

Hi Wyatt

Thanks for sharing.  I agree what we're almost certainly seeing is similar long only ASX systems (i.e. stocks with new highs or near new highs with strong existing trend?) giving similar equity curves in certain market regimes.  I have a preference to staying in All Ords, but often go a bit further out into fully paid ordinary shares as long as those positions are in minority and treated as higher risk.
Peter2 has previously commented in his threads that large, mid and small caps can often be moving differently (including not moving at all).  The Oct 15 through Aug 16 period certainly seemed to coincide with the Small Ords and Emerging Companies trending much more strongly than the ASX200.

My reading and experience leads to me to believe it is very difficult to add value with market regime filters.  It would be fantastic if we knew when to "go nuts", but the reality is you probably have to stay in the game consistently never knowing when the good and bad periods will be.  Again, I've watched Peter2 use his market filter to modulate risk rather than as a "kill switch", which seems to make a lot of sense.

Trendnomics has commented before on his preference to avoid filters that minimise drawdown where that also (generally) reduces long term returns.  Everyone probably has their own level of acceptable risk in this regard.


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## Trendnomics

Wyatt said:


> Which of course leads to the question of how best to time when to be in and when to be out of the market, the ultimate indicator if you will. It is not a simple index MA as performance in various sectors
> can come at any time. Despite the saying that the best stocks go in your favour straight away, a close stop loss does not seem to improve performance.
> 
> Maybe the return of Trendnomics to the forum is such an indicator!




"Ultimate" indicator = Holy Grail = Impossible. 

Possible =

Stay invested and churn as much as possible - keep planting the seeds for the future harvest. 

Work on your trading psychology, to avoid acting like a chimp when the inevitable draw-downs come (google: "loss aversion").

Enjoy the ride to financial freedom.
Don't apply The "Trendnomics" indicator .


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## Trendnomics

New all time equity highs reached (as at market close 12/10/17):

*Private Portfolio: +75.57 % (+13.54 % PA) 

SMSF Portfolio: +89.29 % (+16.32 % PA)*


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## Trendnomics

Returns as at recent close:

Private Portfolio



 SMSF Portfolio


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## Trendnomics

SMSF portfolio percentage return hit triple figures this week. 

*SMSF Portfolio: +101.29%*


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## Trendnomics

Quick update:

*Private Portfolio: +122.64 % 

SMSF Portfolio: +127.02 %*


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## willy1111

Hi @Trendnomics,

Appreciate the effort you have made for this thread. 

Clearly you are doing well and producing a healthy profit/gain.

Curious to know how you handle the tax side of things for your private portfolio if it is not too personal to share.

Ie do you treat yourself as a share trader or investor for tax purposes? And perhaps just trim a bit off each position when the yearly tax bill is due inorder to pay it or just sell off one or two positions to raise the cash to pay the piper?


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## Trendnomics

willy1111 said:


> Hi @Trendnomics,
> 
> Appreciate the effort you have made for this thread.
> 
> Clearly you are doing well and producing a healthy profit/gain.
> 
> Curious to know how you handle the tax side of things for your private portfolio if it is not too personal to share.
> 
> Ie do you treat yourself as a share trader or investor for tax purposes? And perhaps just trim a bit off each position when the yearly tax bill is due inorder to pay it or just sell off one or two positions to raise the cash to pay the piper?




Tax is done as a standard investor (CGT discount advantage), with the following mitigations:

Tax has always been paid from my savings not the portfolio (specially set aside over the FY) - to avoid compounding reduction;
Tax credits from dividends provide some reprieve (10.2% of my profits are from dividends, which are essentially tax free);
CGT discount (in general) provides some reprieve;

CGT discount applied by hedging certain positions (to honour the system's exits - new position capital raised from savings), dependent on: profit %, days till 1 year holding period, current FY profit/loss, short borrow costs, margin requirements, dividend record dates, FY tax rate (I'm a contractor).
Longer term trading is certainly more tax efficient - see your accountant for accurate advice.


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## willy1111

I like your way of trading/investing @Trendnomics .

Yes I would have to agree from my own analysis long term investing means gains go unrealised for longer delaying having to pay tax for longer means less drag from tax on the account, whilst you may have used savings to pay tax in the past eventually the portfolio realised gains will be so large you will need to use gains to pay taxes. And of course the CGT discount is brilliant, I guess you won't be voting Labour (nor will I) as they want to reduce the CGT discount to 25%.

It would appear your personal portfolio would generate around 35 trades/cgt events per year, would that be right? Any concerns by you or your Accountant as to the level of trades per year that may tip you from investor to share trader in the eyes of the ato?


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## Trendnomics

Quick update (at close today):

*Private Portfolio: +124.17 % 

SMSF Portfolio: +162.32 %*


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## Trendnomics

willy1111 said:


> Any concerns by you or your Accountant as to the level of trades per year that may tip you from investor to share trader in the eyes of the ato?




BELOW NOT ADVICE:

Nope. The onus of proof for being a trader is on the taxpayer not the ATO. All relevant case laws (to my knowledge) were related to the taxpayer trying to claim that business share trading activities were conducted (to allow for greater deductions - including income offsets from losses) - not the other way around.

Extract from ATO site: "_A person who invests in shares as a shareholder (rather than a share trader) does so with the intention of earning income from dividends and receipts, but is not carrying on business activities._" - my intention is to earn income from dividends (I collect a large amount of dividends each year as shown on my tax returns) - capital gains is only a by-product.


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## Newt

Hi Trendnomics

Just re-reading your thread.  So much of what you've written rings true.  Its one of life's ironies that you can be given advice, but never really understand or value it until you've suffered through the same issue (but hopefully recognised it a bit sooner!).

I've been trading a systematic weekly trend following system since late 2015 with some changes along the way.  Thinking back I've realised your posts here were often thought provoking and helped me improve some of my entry and exit rules, hopefully still in a robust systematic way.  

Do keeping posting and sharing please.  There aren't many here that are regularly sharing their TF journey.


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## Trendnomics

Hey Newt,

Thanks for your post. Business as usual (still outperforming the index with ease) - graphs per today's open profits:

Private



Super



October was a terrible month, with the worst ever (in % and $$) *peak-to-trough* draw downs occurring (Private = -27% / Super= -23%). Subsequently, I ended up in 75% cash in December (highest cash ratio ever).

In contrast, 2019 has been very kind to the portfolios, with almost a full draw down recovery.

October's pain did spur me into completing my own custom index (as with all things, including my indicators, I only use my own custom codes).

My index tracks the number of equities (in %) that are exhibiting positive trends:



I'm hoping to apply this index to my system to act as a filter to avoid a repeating "October". In introspection, the push to finalise this index after suffering the worst ever draw downs, is somewhat of an emotional reaction. I believe it was a productive and positive reaction, rather than destructive and negative (common reaction: take system offline in December because it's "broken").

I'm still working on integrating this index, thus far I have not found the best application. What was of interest during back-testing, is the variation in expectancy distribution per trade, as the index oscillated between extremes.

Still no changes to my system in ~6 years - but maybe my index will provide a change - alternatively I'll just keep trading through the draw-downs (acceptance similar to that of ocean tides).


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## Newt

Bit of a dilemma for trend followers - how to build in what you learn over the years, without succumbing to constant tinkering.  Not sure I have the answer!

Re your comments on last 6 months, Oct through Nov smashed all of my open profits, with the system going to about 70% cash - which hasn't happened in backtesting since 2011. 

Not sure I would have had the focus to be fully reinvested through into Feb this year if it wasn't for Skate's thread and comments.  Good to see your harvesting the trends this year and near new equity highs, and thanks for the update!


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## investtrader

Ahh...constantly tinkering. Yes, this is also my constant struggle to try to remain true to the system. But I look at it like a business, you must continually assess what you are doing, what is working, are there better ideas but always having the same purpose - join established trends and ride them until just after they end.


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## kid hustlr

Very nice trend!

can you post performance since the start of journey (2013 I think it was) I just think it gives a more complete picture of return.

You must have big stone to handle that drawdown that fast!


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## Trendnomics

Quick update (at close Friday):

*Private Portfolio: +183.39 % 

SMSF Portfolio: +290.3 %*


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## investtrader

Trendonomics,
What do you attribute the difference in performance to? Assuming it is the same system.


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## Newt

Was wondering who you were going Trendnomics in this "relatively sweet patch" for trend traders last 7 months.  Glad to hear its new equity highs


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## Newt

What's also striking to me is your "damn the torpedos" approach to drawdowns, knowing that in the long run it should allow greater profit potential.  I see DDs of 25-33% through the last few months of last year (well in excess of 10%) but little or no lag pulling in profits during the bull market through much of this year to (relatively) quickly get into new equity highs. 

You've explained this before, but all those drooling at your profits need to look more closely and understand the tenacity required to plough through those tough periods while staying true to the strategy.


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## soso

Hi @Trendnomics, care to share a short update how did you fare during 2020? Tx!


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