# 2014 - Predictions



## piggybank (19 January 2014)

Hi,

As most of you are aware it is that time of year when some followers of the market make predictions of various things in the money market e.g. Which country (within the EU) will be next to default. What value will our dollar be against other currencies at the end of this year? etc. Well I have just read part of an article (on the internet) that as advised me (and other readers of it) to avoid 6 stocks this coming year - Fortunately I don't have any of them in my portfolio presently. However, I don't want anyone to lose any of their hard earned dough should they have some of these stocks.




The image can be seen at:- http://www.fool.com.au/2014/01/17/6-stocks-to-avoid-in-2014/

It would be appreciated if others were to add their few cents worth - if not now but during the year

*Please remember that you are responsible for doing your own research (dyor) prior to selling or buying shares.*

Regards
PB


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## pixel (19 January 2014)

LOL, is their advice as good as their numeracy? 
So, which of the 7 stocks listed is not one of the "6 stocks" to avoid?:1zhelp:


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## galumay (19 January 2014)

pixel said:


> LOL, is their advice as good as their numeracy?
> So, which of the 7 stocks listed is not one of the "6 stocks" to avoid?:1zhelp:




ANZ?


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## piggybank (19 January 2014)

pixel said:


> LOL, is their advice as good as their numeracy?
> So, which of the 7 stocks listed is not one of the "6 stocks" to avoid?:1zhelp:




Well if you cannot work that one out - then all I can say your just as foolish as they are

Can't you see through those pixels and work it out

If you really want to know which is the odd one out - then please send $500,000 to my bank account in Africa...

Dr PB


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## Valued (19 January 2014)

The Motley Fools mostly just craps on about random things. Occasionally they mention some useful fundamental and the good thing is they encourage people not to jump on the panic bandwagon, but I would pay no attention to individual stock picks.

Buffet's letters to shareholders are exactly what they claim to be - LETTERS TO HIS SHAREHOLDERS! You know what that means? They are letters to wealthy people invested in a company called Berkshire Hathaway. What is good for them is not good for you. When Buffet talks about his investment strategy he is talking about how he invests his shareholders' billions of dollars. If you listen to what he actually says outside of the letters, such as youtube videos, he says he would invest completely differently if he had small sums of money (and by small sums he is still talking a few million dollars). Further, he reckons he could get a 50% return on small sums by trading companies he would not trade with the billions of dollars Berkshire Hathaway has. 

Most people forget that Buffet started as a technical analyst. That's why he bought Berkshire in the first place. The reason he bought more was because he had a silly grudge against some guy. The decision to buy Berkshire cost him over a 100 billion dollars. Motley fools loves buffet, but you are not buffet. You live in a different time and place with a lot less money.


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## piggybank (19 January 2014)

Sorry I know your not really a bunch of *"FOOLS"* but of course you can save yourself a packet by taking a membership out with them. So either way I'm in a win-win situation


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## Valued (19 January 2014)

piggybank said:


> Sorry I know your not really a bunch of *"FOOLS"* but of course you can save yourself a packet by taking a membership out with them. So either way I'm in a win-win situation




Sorry lol? I think I missed something How does Motley Fools save me money?


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## piggybank (19 January 2014)

Valued said:


> Sorry lol? I think I missed something How does Motley Fools save me money?




Because instead of sending me the $500,000 - it saves you $499,650 by taking a membership with them. However, given how smart you are they might say come and work for us and forget about paying for the membership!!


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## kahuna1 (20 January 2014)

Motley Fool Comments below


And one reason people take too much risk is because they believe in their delusional forecasts, and aren't prepared to react to events I've become almost fatalistic on this, and think most people can improve their financial lives by distancing themselves from as many forecasts as possible. 

In my experience, the people who are the most successful in finance -- whether it's a professional investor or a passive retiree -- are not those who make the best forecasts. It's those who put themselves in situations where they don't need to rely on forecasts coming true in order to do OK. 

Greenspan is right that forecasting is human nature. It'll never go away. But the more we convince ourselves that we're able to forecast with precision, the riskier the world becomes. I'm advocating humility, which seems reasonable after thousands of forecasters -- Greenspan included -- were humbled. 

You should rely on being wrong, and the future's biggest news stories being stuff no one is talking about today. 

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/17/what-alan-greenspan-gets-wrong-about-risk.aspx

Motley Fool Track Record


According to the sales presentation, as of August 31, 2012, the fund had annualized returns of 10.60 percent since its inception on November 1, 2010, barely outperforming its benchmark return of 10.31 percent. However, as of the same date, its one-year total return is 10.90 percent

It also discontinued its Retiree Portfolios, Boring Portfolio (which gained 7.7 percent during the tenure of its portfolio manager, versus 63.6 percent for the S&P 500), 
So far, the secret sauce has eluded them and everyone else engaged in the same activity.
The hypocrisy of Motley Fool is stunning. It purports to be a strong advocate of index-based investing, which it considers to be “an important step in the ladder to successful investing”. In fact, it correctly notes that for many investors, index investing can be their sole strategy.

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/On-Retirement/2012/10/04/motley-fools-foolish-advice

My Comment

How can someone actually say 

“The best investors are not those who make the best forecasts. It's those who put themselves in situations where they don't need to rely on forecasts coming true in order to do OK.”

They said it and over the course of the last few months I have received recommendations from these people on stocks NEVER to touch which have been ones that I loved and ones that have gone up 6 fold post GFC. I have received one week advice to sell due to a peak and the next week advice a leading fund manager thinks the Australian market rises 25% in 2014. 

Not ever for me with a track record that they claim but if you read the above link its reality. Then have you buying speculative companies never ever to have made a profit and call it an investment newsletter, if I wanted advice on the latest fad, I catch a taxi and ask the driver his favorite stock.


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