# Uranium price update thread



## lancer

Can this be the official Uranium price thread? Noticed when there is an update it gets posted on different Threads at different times..

U price currently $113


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## rederob

Thanks lancer.
I believe the "long term" contract price is $85 while spot is a good deal higher.


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## champ2003

rederob said:


> Thanks lancer.
> I believe the "long term" contract price is $85 while spot is a good deal higher.




Hi Rederob,

If you say that the long term U3o8 price is $85 at the moment when its $113 then what will you say the long term price is when u3o8 hits $150? Apparently u3o8 remains competitively priced alongside coal at this price. If demand is going to continue to outstrip supply until at least 2010 and that would be very conservative given the length of time that new mines go into production and the initial over estimation of production capacity of these mines as production problems are a common occurance this should mean that the price should remain at $150 minimum for many years to come IMO.

What do you class as long term? 5 yrs perhaps? I can't see u308 being at $85 any time over the next 2 yrs. 

Whats your methodology for this assessment?

Best regards

Champ


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## rederob

champ2003 said:


> Hi Rederob,
> 
> If you say that the long term U3o8 price is $85 at the moment when its $113 then what will you say the long term price is when u3o8 hits $150? Apparently u3o8 remains competitively priced alongside coal at this price. If demand is going to continue to outstrip supply until at least 2010 and that would be very conservative given the length of time that new mines go into production and the initial over estimation of production capacity of these mines as production problems are a common occurrence this should mean that the price should remain at $150 minimum for many years to come IMO.
> 
> What do you class as long term? 5 yrs perhaps? I can't see u308 being at $85 any time over the next 2 yrs.
> 
> Whats your methodology for this assessment?
> 
> Best regards
> 
> Champ



Champ
I barely understand the uranium market, although have a reasonable clue about its supply/demand fundamentals.
For your info, the respected source for uranium prices is found here:
http://www.uranium.info/prices/longterm.html
In relation to longer term price structures and unit costs via various energy sources, you can find some excellent articles by googling: They are beyond me.
The problems we have in trying to guess a maximum price for uranium is that it needs to be compared with a moving feast of prices for natural gas, oil, coal and (to a lesser extent) wind.
Then add to this the fact that each nation MUST have a "mix" of generating capacity - just in case!!!
My personal view, atm, is that uranium prices can very comfortably rise above $200 next year and remain extremely cost competitive with other fuel types.
Note that coal remains uranium's natural competitor, but in future years may have inbuilt "clean coal cost premiums" so that global warming sensitivities are ameliorated.


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## james99

I disclose reasonable long term interests (2010-2014) in Mee (acquired at AU$.13) and Cameco (acquired at US$39 and payng a minor dividend) (see other thread for reasons, my only junior and senior uranium and gold plays respectively). 

The time frame reflects the IAEE survey as to when uranium prices are likely to reduce to the US$60-70 range. 

The most recent spot price of US$113 (reported by Trade-Tech etc) was a one of auction and I also understand that long terms contracts are generally in the US$55-80 range, but that some hedge funds have bought interests in the US$100 range. Interestingly analysts including Trade Tech predict rises to US$135 over the next 18 months, with a reduction not commencing until Cigar Lake comes on line in 2010, barring futher accident to it, Ranger etc. It may be that the three mines policy may change that, but a 2-3 year start up is still likely for new mines. Best wishes.


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## rederob

james99 said:


> The most recent spot price of US$113 (reported by Trade-Tech etc) was a one of auction and I also understand that long terms contracts are generally in the US$55-80 range, but that some hedge funds have bought interests in the US$100 range.



True.
Although when a one-off auction is so fiercely bid, it tells you there are problems in the immediate market.
Note also the subtle distinction between long term contracts and long term contract prices.
The former relate to supply contracts negotiated in the past - typically at a huge discount to present spot - and could be many years old by now and soon due to be renegotiated.
The latter relates to newly negotiated contracts over a reasonable term (generally many years), and the price agreed.  Typically they are set against recent past month spot price highs.
The other aspect of future pricing forecasts that needs to be understood is that while it is possible they might fall in 5-10 years time, it is equally possible they might be significantly higher.
BHP's Olympic Dam may not ramp up at the required rate, and Cigar Lake may not ever realise it potential.
Then again the rate of construction of nuclear plants could be equally variable, although the consensus suggest more and not less.


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## james99

Agreed. I only follow a few of the uranium price contracting experts (there are only a very limted number and they are beset with a degree of uncertainty). However as you suggest there is a distortion in the market and it has some potential to last and increase.

I think Cameco for example has long terms contracts negotiated several years ago for US$16-30 lb, but is soon to be renegotaing some at much higher prices. 

The high spot prices have been a boon for the non-fully contracted companies like Paladin, who have taken advantage of them, and will be for the share price of the (relatively few) ASX / TSX juniors with genuine uranium ability or prospects (as opposed to some of the current range of oversubscribed IPO's and listings with limited and undiversified assets and licences with <200 ppb, which is still not likely economic I suspect).

I might add by way of editing, that the cost of uranium is only a very very small part of the overall cost of exploring, building a reactor and the ongoing meeting of operations, regulatory and other issues, hence the explaination by some experts that a high price of uranium is not a concern, so long as there is a good supply.


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## doyoureallycare

Just incase you's wern't aware, uranium is going to be added to the futures market on May 6.

See Below:

NYMEX Partners With UX Consulting To Offer Uranium Futures Contracts
16/04/07

The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc., a subsidiary of NYMEX Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:NMX), the world's largest physical commodity exchange, today signed a 10–year agreement with the Ux Consulting Company, LLC (UxC), the global uranium pricing index and information leader, to introduce on and off-exchange traded uranium futures products on the CME Globex ® and NYMEX ClearPort ® electronic platforms on May 6 for trade date May 7. 

NYMEX and UxC will work together to provide marketing and education for these financially settled contracts, which will serve as the pricing benchmark for this rapidly growing industry. 

NYMEX Chairman Richard Schaeffer said, "We are excited to introduce uranium futures contracts and to provide the industry with a transparent price discovery mechanism. We expect to create a benchmark contract for this important and underserved global market. NYMEX is gratified to launch innovative products, and uranium is uniquely positioned to act as a complement to both our energy and metals product offerings. We are proud to partner with Ux Consulting, the recognized market leader." 

UxC President Jeff Combs said "The experience this decade has clearly indicated that the uranium market would benefit from additional price transparency, especially in terms of forward prices, as market participants formulate budget and investment decisions in this critical period of a renaissance in nuclear power. We are pleased to partner with NYMEX, the global leader in commodities–based futures trading, in the introduction of uranium futures products, and applaud NYMEX for investing the time and resources necessary to make uranium futures a reality." 

About NYMEX Holdings, Inc.


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## doyoureallycare

*Uranium price to hit $140/lb: analysts
-------------------------------------*-------------------------------------------
Thursday, 29 March 2007
Kate Haycock

EQUITY researcher Resource Capital Research has released a report suggesting that the spot price for uranium could reach $US125 a pound some time this year and $140/lb by September 2008 – an increase of 47% over the current spot price of $95/lb.

RCR managing director and analyst John Wilson said the main factor driving the price higher was a strong growth in new nuclear reactors, and with at least 48 new power reactors expected to be commissioned by 2013, the price indicators all suggested that uranium would be heading to even further record highs. 

"Uranium price indicators continue to strengthen and are currently at all-time highs," Wilson said. 

"Sector fundamentals are being driven by new reactor announcements, reactor power uprates and life extensions, investor and producer buying, and supply disruptions at Ranger and Cigar Lake."

The Cigar Lake floods are expected to delay production at Cameco's Canada mine until 2010, while Energy Resources Australia's Northern Territory Ranger uranium mine was also hit by heavy rains earlier this year and production is anticipated to be down some 20-30% in the first quarter of this year.

On the upside for future uranium production, RCR said it anticipated the three mines policy of the ALP would be reversed in April, which would benefit companies with advanced projects especially in Queensland and South Australia. The Western Australia stance banning uranium mining was also "unsustainable" in the mid-term future.

Hartley's resources analyst Andrew Muir told MiningNews.Net that these price forecasts were not out of line.

"Considering where [uranium] has come from, going up an extra $40-50 a pound within one to two years is not unreasonable, given supply and demand issues," he said.

"Supply is tight and there aren't many significant new mines coming onstream, and there are a lot of new reactors being proposed and built."

He also indicated that the future was looking good for uranium plays in Australia, especially companies with advanced projects, with the proviso that the ALP will need to reverse its three mines policy. 

Muir said the market had priced in the expectation that the politics will change and did not expect overheated market prices for uranium stocks in the wake of the potential Labor policy change. 

"Obviously, companies which are closer to production when this happens will gain a premium," he said.

RCR's figures from 140 Australian uranium juniors showed that they had jumped up 23% over the past three months and 122% over the past 12 months, compared to a selection of Canadian juniors, which were down 2% over the past month and up 75% over the past 12 months. 

The majority of the 48 new reactors under development will be located in Asia – 13 in China, eight in India, six in South Korea and three in Japan. Russia is also commissioning eight new reactors, RCR said. 

The total power output of the reactors will be 43.5 gigawatts electric, compared with 435 nuclear reactors currently in operation with an aggregate generation capacity of 370GW electric – representing an 11% increase in power generation over the next six years.


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## rederob

I don't really care to read an article a month old given that uranium prices are already near the touted price.
If you are not smart enough to have your own opinion, don't be so silly to trot out old news.


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## noirua

Hi doyoureallycare, Thanks for the articles posted;  They were very interesting and I look forward to your future posts. - Cheers


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## nizar

rederob said:


> I don't really care to read an article a month old given that uranium prices are already near the touted price.
> If you are not smart enough to have your own opinion, don't be so silly to trot out old news.




Tend to agree.

I cant wait until uranium begins trading publically in the futures market. Euphoria in uranium stocks, here we come!


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## professor_frink

nizar said:


> Tend to agree.
> 
> I cant wait until uranium begins trading publically in the futures market. Euphoria in uranium stocks, here we come!




What makes you think that Nizar?


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## james99

I think the futures trading has risks, in the near term. Possession cannot be taken of the physical commodity, and the physical users of uranium are very limited and have existing relationships and contracts with suppliers, in many cases. 

Until such time as physical users commence involvement with trading (which is not their core business and may occur over a medium time frame) the market will, I think, likely be driven by speculators and small or higher risk funds. Trading may be quite spare to begin with and, of course, the futures trading was set up as a result of speculation, rather than demand by traditional buyers. Transparancy might not be a good thing and may also bring with it greater understanding that long terrms contract rates are significantly less than spot rates.

What we could see in the near term is the equalivant of small cap share trading, where small quantities dictate high changes in prices. That high volatility may be both up and down, and make short term uranium investing a bumpy ride, and conversely offer short term profit (and loss) opportunities for uranium share investments. 

Perhaps more helpfully for Australian uranium stocks, Bloomberg International and Reuters are now according coverage to the proposed ALP mines policy, which has no doubt been factored in for Australian investors, and overseas uranium followers, but perhaps not by more general overseas investors who have yet to follow uranium. If the change occurs, and especially given that Howard is today expected to announce plans for uranium enrichment and power generation in Australia, then they might combine to focus some generalist international investors interest on Australian uranium stocks. 

In other areas (ie non mining where there are political decisions make that affect investment decisions) such interest often results in significant share price effects 2-6 months later, being the time frame required for larger, and more conservative, funds and advisors to conduct research, advise clients etc. It was only last month that one of the international brokerages announced a "watch" rating on the uranium sector as a whole.


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## nizar

professor_frink said:


> What makes you think that Nizar?




Uranium market is pretty tight.
This will increase the liquidity and bring a whole other class of buyers into the uranium market. It wont just be 100k lb auctions every fortnight anymore. 

The best way to get leverage to a rising uranium spot price is through the stocks IMO, especially those looking to or already are producing.

Maybe the blow-off for uranium will come this year?
Who knows.
But there will be a supply deficit until at least 2010 so from a fundamentally it should remain high until then.

It would be nice if we have a peak this year of US$300/lb and then maybe consolidation and long-term price of US$150/lb 

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={04534340-989E-43ED-B93D-1CEC856F39BF}


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## greggy

james99 said:


> I think the futures trading has risks, in the near term. Possession cannot be taken of the physical commodity, and the physical users of uranium are very limited and have existing relationships and contracts with suppliers, in many cases.
> 
> Until such time as physical users commence involvement with trading (which is not their core business and may occur over a medium time frame) the market will, I think, likely be driven by speculators and small or higher risk funds. Trading may be quite spare to begin with and, of course, the futures trading was set up as a result of speculation, rather than demand by traditional buyers. Transparancy might not be a good thing and may also bring with it greater understanding that long terrms contract rates are significantly less than spot rates.
> 
> What we could see in the near term is the equalivant of small cap share trading, where small quantities dictate high changes in prices. That high volatility may be both up and down, and make short term uranium investing a bumpy ride, and conversely offer short term profit (and loss) opportunities for uranium share investments.
> 
> Perhaps more helpfully for Australian uranium stocks, Bloomberg International and Reuters are now according coverage to the proposed ALP mines policy, which has no doubt been factored in for Australian investors, and overseas uranium followers, but perhaps not by more general overseas investors who have yet to follow uranium. If the change occurs, and especially given that Howard is today expected to announce plans for uranium enrichment and power generation in Australia, then they might combine to focus some generalist international investors interest on Australian uranium stocks.
> 
> In other areas (ie non mining where there are political decisions make that affect investment decisions) such interest often results in significant share price effects 2-6 months later, being the time frame required for larger, and more conservative, funds and advisors to conduct research, advise clients etc. It was only last month that one of the international brokerages announced a "watch" rating on the uranium sector as a whole.



Any changes made at the ALP Conference in favour of increased uranium mining may well increase interest from overseas companies looking for Australian uranium projects especially in SA and NT.  As for WA and Qld, the state govts are still firmly opposed to uranium mining.  Their backward attitudes may change down the track. However, I think that most investors  here already expect a change in policy at the ALP Conference anyhow. 
The market's reaction on Monday will be very interesting.
DYOR


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## professor_frink

nizar said:


> Uranium market is pretty tight.
> This will increase the liquidity and bring a whole other class of buyers into the uranium market. It wont just be 100k lb auctions every fortnight anymore.
> 
> The best way to get leverage to a rising uranium spot price is through the stocks IMO, especially those looking to or already are producing.
> 
> Maybe the blow-off for uranium will come this year?
> Who knows.
> But there will be a supply deficit until at least 2010 so from a fundamentally it should remain high until then.
> 
> It would be nice if we have a peak this year of US$300/lb and then maybe consolidation and long-term price of US$150/lb
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={04534340-989E-43ED-B93D-1CEC856F39BF}




Cheers for the article Nizar, I don't have much info on it at the moment

From the article-


> "Uranium futures could create large price swings that will allow not only for bigger up-legs, but sharper corrections," warned Zeal's Wright.



Completely agree with that statement. Will be interesting to see how it all goes


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## legs

FYI:
Prime Minister John Howard on Saturday promised to remove all excessive restrictions on mining, processing and exporting of Australian uranium as a possible step to embarking on domestic nuclear power generation
Mr Howard said expert advice to the government clearly showed Australia was giving up a major economic opportunity as a result of the excessive barriers on uranium mining and export.

He said a key theme of that advice was that Australia should do what it could to expand uranium exports and remove unnecessary barriers that were impeding efficient operation and growth of the industry.


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## spooly74

NYMEX uranium futures survey results 

More Interest in Uranium, More Volatility in Price


Over the past week, we’ve spoken to several industry experts about the impact of uranium futures on the uranium price. Will it work? Yellowcake Mining director Dr. Robert Rich, who has spent several decades in every aspect of the nuclear fuel cycle, talked to a number of utility executives at the recent nuclear fuel conference in Budapest. He felt they were pretty excited about the prospects for uranium futures trading. “It may be too early to tell,” Dr. Rich told us, “but I think futures trading shows promise.”

In a prepared response, TradeTech chief executive Gene Clark wrote of those he has talked with, “The most interested parties have been the electric utility company fuel managers, who seem to be willing to try anything new that will give them the power to halt the price run-up.” He also pointed out utility fuel managers have “little, if any, experience in such (futures) markets.”

By contrast, after having discussed futures trading with professional traders, Dr. Clark wrote, “The folks we talked to, who have the most experience in these types of markets, are the most skeptical.” He explained, “They don’t see how such a market could take hold, given (in their words) ‘the lack of the basic elements for such a market to evolve.’” He cited the absence of a ‘liquid spot market and absence of a linkage to the physical market for the commodity.’

Dr. Clark also pointed out an interesting observation, “The NYMEX futures market potentially sets the stage for a very interesting battle between the traditional market participants and a new set of players. The traditional players have no interest in transparency and liquidity. In fact, that’s how they make their money – by making sure it is transparent only to themselves as individual parties.”

Clark’s conclusion, “Utility fuel managers want to use futures trading to hedge their upside price risk, while potential sellers generally expect prices to keep rising precipitously.”


http://www.stockinterview.com/News/...rvey.html?section=news&action=detail&id=66356

Also includes a poll on some gereral questions regarding uranium futures trading.

Kick Off May 7th


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## james99

From the New York Post:


In a bet on the revival of nuclear energy, Wall Street giants including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are set to move mountains of cash into uranium when it starts trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange next month.

The price of uranium has skyrocketed over the past year from around $40 a pound to around $113 as demand has outstripped supply. Goldman and other investors including hedge funds see big opportunities trading uranium because of its high level of volatility.


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## happytown

for those interested,

AusIMM (Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy) are holding "Australia's Uranium Conference 2007" from 14-17 May 2007, with conference proper on 15, 16 May, in Darwin.

Major sponsors - ERA and Cameco.

http://www.ausimm.com/main/uranium2007/home.php

cheers


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## explod

Notice on Kitco this morning, uranium at $120 US a pound.  Had read an email alert suggesting a contract went through at $135 a pound overnight but cant' seem to pick it out of my deleted files to quote, perhaps someone else spotted same.  Anyway should set some of our local producers and specs off today.


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## james99

If you go the the Nymex web site you can see the current contracts. Last night they were US$143, with offers at US$146. I have not checked this morning.

I anticpate that near producers and producers ought to be rerated, over time, as well as those with reaslistic prospects.


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## wayneL

james99 said:


> If you go the the Nymex web site you can see the current contracts. Last night they were US$143, with offers at US$146. I have not checked this morning.
> 
> I anticpate that near producers and producers ought to be rerated, over time, as well as those with reaslistic prospects.



Follow the megadeath metal chart here (live-delayed (hows that for an oxymoron?))

http://new.quote.com/futures/adv_ch...0x550&chartUi.bardensity=LOW&chartUi.overlay=

A whole 35 contracts traded yesterday and today 

I think we'll be waiting awhile for this to be a speculators contract.


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## greggy

wayneL said:


> Follow the megadeath metal chart here (live-delayed (hows that for an oxymoron?))
> 
> http://new.quote.com/futures/adv_ch...0x550&chartUi.bardensity=LOW&chartUi.overlay=
> 
> A whole 35 contracts traded yesterday and today
> 
> I think we'll be waiting awhile for this to be a speculators contract.



Some of the gloom and down mentality associated with uranium being traded on the futures exchange has proved to be a touch too bearish thus far.  With uranium sentiment being so strong and demand currently far exceeding supply, I feel that bullish sentiment towards the commodity will not change for a while yet.
DYOR


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## 56gsa

explod said:


> Notice on Kitco this morning, uranium at $120 US a pound.  Had read an email alert suggesting a contract went through at $135 a pound overnight but cant' seem to pick it out of my deleted files to quote, perhaps someone else spotted same.  Anyway should set some of our local producers and specs off today.




TradeTech Uranium Price Climbs to Record High
Denver, CO May 5, 2007”” The uranium spot market price soared to US$120 per pound uranium oxide (U3O8)””setting an all-time record price as the market cautiously waits for uranium futures to begin trading on May 7. 

TradeTech’s weekly spot price jumped six percent on May 4, just days before the debut of NYMEX uranium futures trading. It is the latest in a series of record price levels that have occurred over the past two years, as investor interest in the market surged and near-term uranium supplies remained thin. 

The spot uranium market has been quiet since the mid-April announcement that NYMEX would launch a uranium futures contract. “Sellers, in particular, have been reluctant to commit to sales based on market-related pricing terms without a clear understanding of whether the financially settled futures contract would reflect prices in the physical market,” TradeTech President Treva Klingbiel stated. “And, the potential auction by a US producer further encouraged a ‘wait and see’ attitude by several potential sellers,” Klingbiel added. 

Experienced players in the uranium market remain skeptical about futures trading, as they wait to see if it will bring increased transparency and liquidity to a market that has been traditionally dominated by end users, such as electric utilities and uranium producers.


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## nizar

56gsa said:


> TradeTech Uranium Price Climbs to Record High
> Denver, CO May 5, 2007”” The uranium spot market price soared to US$120 per pound uranium oxide (U3O8)””setting an all-time record price as the market cautiously waits for uranium futures to begin trading on May 7.
> 
> TradeTech’s weekly spot price jumped six percent on May 4, just days before the debut of NYMEX uranium futures trading. It is the latest in a series of record price levels that have occurred over the past two years, as investor interest in the market surged and near-term uranium supplies remained thin.
> 
> The spot uranium market has been quiet since the mid-April announcement that NYMEX would launch a uranium futures contract. “Sellers, in particular, have been reluctant to commit to sales based on market-related pricing terms without a clear understanding of whether the financially settled futures contract would reflect prices in the physical market,” TradeTech President Treva Klingbiel stated. “And, the potential auction by a US producer further encouraged a ‘wait and see’ attitude by several potential sellers,” Klingbiel added.
> 
> Experienced players in the uranium market remain skeptical about futures trading, as they wait to see if it will bring increased transparency and liquidity to a market that has been traditionally dominated by end users, such as electric utilities and uranium producers.




Is there a point to posting news articles a week after they were written?


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## 56gsa

this might be a bit old news but just caught up with it myself - Uxc now have U at US$120 - down $10 - although trade tech has no drop...



> In the Market ...
> The spot uranium price remains unchanged this week at $129.00 per U3O8. After three weeks of price declines, the spot price held steady this week, in large part, due to the uncertainty created by Cameco’s announcement late Friday afternoon that its Port Hope conversion facility will be shut down for a minimum of two months. The slide in the spot uranium price over the past few weeks has been driven by weak demand and the availability of spot supplies to meet several multiples of the current level of demand. In fact, additional supply was introduced into the market this week when the US Department of Energy (DOE) announced that it is soliciting bids for the sale of up to 200 metric tons (mtU) of UF6””the equivalent of approximately 522 thousand pounds U3O8. The uranium will be sold in eight separate lots: one lot of 100 mtU, two lots of 30 mtU apiece, and five lots of 7.7 mtU each. DOE has requested bids by August 17, with delivery and payment to occur by September 21. One seller continues to evaluate bids received in response to its auction of 150 tU of UF6 (392 thousand pounds U3O8 equivalent). Several other sellers are seeking to place material through off-market transactions.


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## 56gsa

As discussed on the PDN thread UXC now has US$110/lb as their weekly spot price, down from US$120  (http://uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx) - not sure how this then will affect the monthly price?

Does this explain ERAs recent fall in last couple of days - which to me is a bit bizarre given ERA is currently getting US$20/lb under their long-term contracts so the U price could fall to $50 and they would still have the potential to double revenue!!


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## spooly74

Uranium Falls to Lowest Since March, TradeTech Says (Update1) 



> By Yuriy Humber
> 
> Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Uranium dropped to the lowest since March because of an oversupply of the metal used to make fuel for nuclear reactors, according to TradeTech LLC, an industry consulting company.
> 
> Metal for immediate delivery fell to $105 a pound, Denver- based TradeTech said in a weekly report published Aug. 10. One transaction was reported last week, TradeTech said. Tullett Prebon Plc, the world's second-largest inter-dealer broker and a dealer in uranium-futures contracts, sold 50,000 pounds of the metal at $105.
> 
> ``Although current buying interest remains weak with only four discretionary buyers in the market, some are watching the recent drop in prices closely with a view toward reentering the market,'' TradeTech said.
> 
> The spot price has fallen 24 percent since rising to a record $138 in June. Utilities, the biggest buyers of uranium, have slowed purchases after building up inventories. Rising supply, the lending of material between users and concern over nuclear accidents after an earthquake in Japan last month caused a fire at a power plant have also pushed prices lower.
> 
> *Demand on the spot market dropped to 800,000 pounds last week. Supply stood at 4 million pounds of uranium oxide concentrate, or yellowcake, TradeTech said July 27.
> 
> Prices may fall to as low as $70 as the U.S. Department of Energy prepares to auction 200 tons of uranium hexafluoride, a processed form of yellowcake, next week, said Mikhail Stiskin, an analyst with Troika Dialog in Moscow. *
> 
> `Damage'
> 
> ``I'm afraid that this auction will seriously damage the spot market,'' Stiskin said. ``Everyone's waiting for the auction to pass before revaluating their options.''
> 
> Futures contracts for delivery in February and in March dropped 16 percent last week to $99 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
> 
> ``The spot price is still very high, and maybe utilities are waiting for it to come down,'' said Ossi Koskivirta, nuclear fuel purchasing manager with Espoo, Finland-based Fortum Oyj.
> 
> Koskivirta said spot prices will fall to $80 a pound. Still, mining companies will be ``very satisfied'' with sales at current prices as production costs at new mines are about $40 a pound, Koskivirta said.




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aXlX6qebO53Y&refer=canada


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## insider

:bonk: Under the hammer


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## bravo

*Uranium To Be Auctioned Next Week*
Topic: Uranium — August 13th, 2007

The US department of Energy is planning to auction 200 tons of uranium hexafluoride, a type of processed yellowcake next week. So what can we expect?

Well we are surprised that they would rather have the cash than the product given the supply shortages and the ever-growing demand, but that is by the by.

We start with TradeTech LLC who according to Bloomberg reported this week that the metal fell for immediate delivery falling to $105/lb. This was apparently based on one transaction only for 50,000 pounds, but as it is all we have to go on, there it is.

The second indicator we can look at is the NYMEX Futures Market where we can ascertain that prices are indeed lower than they were last week:

December 2007 $109/lb
January 2008 $99/lb
June 2008 $103/lb
July 2008 $111/lb

At a guess this auction, in the middle of the quiet season, could return a price of around a $100/lb. If it is sub $100/lb then we will have to endure the bears leading the headlines with “The Return of Vegetable Oil” etc.

However please bear in mind that we are talking about the spot price which for a long time has been running way above the average longer-term price of $95/lb. The spot price will be more volatile than the longer-term price as with any commodity or asset class.

Secondly we need to be aware of the mining costs of uranium which as we understand it are on average around $30 - $40/lb. So if we assume the higher figure of $40/lb for our costs and the lower figure of $95/lb for the value then we are looking at a profit of $55/lb.

We agree that this is not an in-depth financial analysis of the uranium market sector but it gives us some comfort that all is not lost.

Finally, we will see what transpires over the coming days, weeks and months regarding uranium stocks. Our humble opinion is that there will be some consolidation going forward but the downside is now limited. Its impossible to pin point the exact day of a top or a bottom but last Friday, 10th August 2007 could well be looked upon as the final day of capitulation for uranium stock holders.

For what it is worth we have not sold any of our uranium stocks and we will continue to look for bargain basement opportunities to accumulate before they disappear with the negativity that weighs heavy on many investors minds at the moment.

Have a good one.
Uranium Chart 13 August 2007


Hi guys, This article from U3O8.biz, last updated.


----------



## powerkoala

oh, more bad news arrives.
what has happened to uranium stocks still not enough?
jeez.. almost all of them down 40-80% from record high.
should all sp back to 1 cent?
can't believe when uranium hype is gone, the leftover is like this.
is uranium still be champion on 2008 ???


----------



## bravo

Desperately seeking uranium
Article by Michael Petek
Wednesday 15th August 2007, 19:59
Die Welt

Against the background of the increasing importance of nuclear energy worldwide, French nuclear company Areva is short of raw materials. Experts believe this could presage a shortage of uranium.

Fears were triggered by the flooding of an uranium mine in Canada and political tensions in Niger. The price per pound of uranium has tripled in the space of a year to US$138 (101 Euros). Pessimistic forecasters predict that uranium could become scarce in 2040 at the latest, or perhaps as early as in the coming decade. However, experts expect supply problems over a much longer terms.

The state-owned company Areva, a world market leader in the nuclear industry, is in large measure dependent on uranium mines outside France. Reserves in the southern French département of Hérault are almost completely exhausted, producing in the past year only five tons of uranium. Areva produced 5,272 tonnes of uranium in 2005, but plans to increase production to 12,000 tonnes a year by 2012. Half of current production is from Canadian mines, 43 from Niger and the rest from Kazakhstan.

Areva has been having increasing problems with Niger, the world’s third-largest producer of uranium. Until now the French nuclear giant enjoyed a monopoly position in the uranium trade, but when the local head of Areva, Dominique Pin, was deported Niger put pressure on the company to renegotiate contracts.

Furthermore the price of uranium per pound for this year was raised retrospectively by half to US$40. This is still low in comparison to the world market price, but it could rise still further as the government of Niger wants to renegotiate the price for 2008.

Areva therefore has to look hard for new uranium deposits to secure its supply on a broader base. As a first step Areva took, in July, a 93 per cent share in Canadian uranium mining company Uramin for US$2.5 billion (1.8 billion Euros). Uramin, founded only two years ago, runs operations in South Africa, Namibia and the Central African Republic and intends to produce 7,000 tonnes of uranium per year from 2012.

In another step Areva intends to invest heavily in research into new uranium reserves, employing 100 new geologists. Areva President Anne Lauvergeon plans to treble spending on these projects, and according to media reports is paying particular attention to Gabon which is thought to have more deposits of uranium.

However, the French company is not the only one with an interest in the African nation. Canadian company Cameco is said to have sent a delegation to Gabon.

Uranium supply is not Areva’s only cause for concern. On Friday Framatome, which is merged its nuclear activities with Siemens, had to announce further delays in the construction of the EPR pressurised water reactor in Finland, which was originally expected to enter service in 2009 before being delayed until the end of 2010. It will not now enter service until 2011. 

Comments 
Uranium production decline
Posted by John Busby on Wednesday 15.08.2007, 08:56 PM
See my article "A little makes a lot?" in the Real Resources Review on Sanders Research website

http://www.sandersresearch.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1300&Itemid=105


----------



## exgeo

Market commentator and newsletter author James Dines of the Dines letter sent out an email circular to subscribers yesterday, urging subscribers not to sell their holdings in panic only to regret it later. He forecasts Uranium may trade down to US $80/lb before picking up again. US $80/lb is still pretty good for producers (ERA get about US $15/lb I think because of long-term contracts written in the uranium dark-age). The real shortage of metal has not gone away, it is merely the forced selling of hedge funds which is caneing the stocks and the metal itself, as some funds bought uranium metal. Have a look at the chart of Mega Uranium in Toronto to see what forced selling looks like! Mr Dines mentions that Mega has CAD $100m in cash, so should recover quickly once the forced sellers are sold out, or bankrupt. He himself is a buyer at these levels he says. For anyone with more than a few thousand dollars in the uranium area, I'd recommend a subscription. He's rather evangelical if you hear him speak (there's a webcast on minesite.com) but he knows his stuff I think.


----------



## spooly74

The Uranium spot is now at $90 and Dec futures at $68 !!!

Short term correction, or the start of a significant downturn ?


----------



## eMark

spooly74 said:


> The Uranium spot is now at $90 and Dec futures at $68 !!!
> 
> Short term correction, or the start of a significant downturn ?




From what I have read it may trade as low as $80. I'd say we are in the middle of a correction. Uranium stocks have already been hit hard. I wonder if the correction has already been priced into stocks, or whether they are going to experience further falls.


----------



## bravo

To ensure you receive future issues of Energy and Capital,
please add eac-eletter@angelnexus.com to your address book. 





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, August 23rd, 2007 

Should We Worry About Uranium at $90/lb?
By Keith Kohl 


Baltimore, MD-This hasn't been the greatest summer for uranium's spot price. After reaching $136 a pound in July, spot prices fell to $90 recently. This drop, however, shouldn't be too alarming when taking in the entire picture.

What a difference a few weeks can make. 

Since July, uranium's spot price has fallen aobut 29% to $90 pound. And very day since that drop, I've heard the same thing over and over from my readers...

"It was a good run and all, but aren't uranium producers about to get pummeled. Is this the time to throw in the towel on our uranium plays?"

I would think twice before doing so.

The reason is simple. We've been expecting this correction for years. Uranium prices have risen dramatically over the last few years. Losing 30% is nothing compared to the long term gains that yellowcake has made.

Sure, looking at a two-month chart of uranium's spot price will make you cringe a little. But don't forget this...



Uranium was sold in 2002 for under $8 a pound! I'm pretty sure that most of us would take over a 1000% gain over five years.

Advertisement

How a $30,000 Start-Up Investment Turned into $2.17 Million
Two North American companies are setting up operations to extract precious and base metals from the largest formation in the entire world. Go here to find out how you can cash in on this opportunity. 

Find out how to seize this great investment opportunity 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So what exactly happened a few short weeks ago?

Spot prices fell to to $90 a pound after the Department of Energy's auction last week, which put up approximately 200 metric tons of uranium hexafluoride. Uranium hexafluoride is a type of processed yellowcake (U3O8). 

But during this short term correction, we can still remain incredibly bulish on yellowcake. We can blame nuclear energy for that.

The Nuclear Demand for Electricity

According to the World Nuclear Association (WNA), a total of 78,458 tons of U3O8 is needed for the 438 nuclear reactors currently operating around the world in 2007. 

The problem, however, is that global uranium production is still falling short of that amount. Last year, mines only produced about 39, 429 tons of uranium (only about 46,499 tons of U3O8). The gap between supply and demand is going to continue to widen over the next several years. 

It isn't surprising that China and India are leading the pack. India's demand for electricity is expected to more than double by 2015. 

In 2007, the construction of 288 nuclear reactors were planned, proposed or already underway. Over 45% of those were located in either India or China. By 2010, India will have six new reactors completed. 

China is much more ambitious. More than 110 nuclear reactors were planned or proposed this year. The country hopes to quadruple their nuclear capactiy by 2020. 

But where does this leave us? Since the spot price has fallen so much in the last weeks, are these uranium producers still worth our time and money?

Absolutely. 

Let's take a look at uranium producers for a second. The current $90 per pound spot price for uranium is more than double their mining costs, which are estimated to reach up to $40 a pound. So these companies will still be able to shine despite this correction. 

Just consider the future role that nuclear power will play over the next few decades. It's the logical solution to our energy crisis. As oil and other fossil fuels become too expensive to extract, we're going to need a new source of energy on a massive scale. 

Until next time,



Keith Kohl


----------



## lancer

Hoping U price has hit the bottom. Any word yet for this weeks price?


----------



## powerkoala

Breaking news!!!
PRIME Minister John Howard and President Vladimir Putin have signed a deal for Australia to sell uranium to Russia.

The two leaders signed the deal after talks in Mr Howard's Sydney office this morning, ahead of a joint press conference. 

Mr Putin, the first Russian leader to visit Australia, flew in to Sydney earlier this morning to attend the APEC summit of world leaders.

read the complete news here
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22377859-5013109,00.html

hope this will bring the uranium bulls in action


----------



## bravo

TAKE A LOOK-Reuters stories on uranium
Mon Sep 10, 2007 2:47PM BST

With uranium prices hitting an all-time high of $136 per
pound in June -- up from $7 in year 2000 -- and more governments
embracing nuclear energy, interest in the sector is booming. The
World Nuclear Association Symposium in London examines the state
of the industry, and where it is headed.

 LATEST STORIES
> Areva boosts its uranium exploration on price   [ID:nL10689388]
> ElBaradei urges Iran to stick to nuclear promise[ID:nL06357874]
> Who will foot the nuclear power bill?           [ID:nL07922457]
> Nuclear firms hail environment "renaissance"    [ID:nL06154623]
> Cameco says Cigar Lake mine repairs on target   [ID:nL07119446]
> Nuclear industry: no fear of gas competition    [ID:nL07551055]
> Labour shortage may limit new nuclear plants    [ID:nL07733334]
> Canada's Uranium One to quadruple output by 08  [ID:nL06857019]
> Hundreds march in Niger against French nuclear  [ID:nL08207944]
> Merkel says backs Siemens, Areva nuclear work   [ID:nL10180531]
> Australia, Russia sign uranium sale agreement    [ID:nSP160215]
> S.Africa starts testing for reactor programme    [ID:nL2985020]
> Australia may soften ban on India uranium sales [ID:nSYD123380]
> Argentina to mine uranium for first time in     [ID:nN29356980]
> Uranium miners in logjam despite price spike      [ID:nSP72637]
> Nuclear energy ignites uranium boom              [ID:nSP107683]
> Niger sells first 300 tonnes to U.S. Exelon     [ID:nL28878973]

 FACTBOXES
> Leading uranium firms and scientists meet       [ID:nL03454804]
> From pigment to power: history of uranium         [ID:nSP67612]
> Snapshot of global uranium trade                 [ID:nSP108576]
> Uranium and nuclear fuel developments             [ID:nSP66969]
 Recent stories can be seen by double clicking on the code in
brackets. [ ]
---------------------------------------------------------
UP-TO-THE-MINUTE HEADLINES
 All commodities        [C]        Grains, oilseeds        [GRO]
 Metals               [MET]        Soft commodities        [SOF]
 Precious metals      [GOL]        Livestock               [LIV]
 Shipping             [SHG]        Weather                 [WEA]
 Cocoa                [COC]        Coffee                  [COF]
 Sugar                [SUG]        Derivatives             [DRV]
 HOW TO FIND INFORMATION YOU NEED(REUTERS: Quote, Profile, Research)      (NEWS: Quote, Profile, Research)       <PHONE/HELP>     (EQUITY: Quote, Profile, Research)(BONDS: Quote, Profile, Research)        (MONEY: Quote, Profile, Research)      (COMMODITY: Quote, Profile, Research)      (ENERGY: Quote, Profile, Research)



  © Reuters 2007. All rights reserved.


----------



## lancer

Uranium price stays the same, which is great news in my opinion. This from Trade Tech:

In the wake of the dramatic price decline in the spot uranium price during August, the first week of September has been extremely quiet with no new demand reported and no transactions concluded. As a result, TradeTech’s Uranium Spot Price Indicator is unchanged from the August 31 Exchange Value at $85.00 per pound U3O8. A US producer officially issued a Request for Bids for the sale of up to 300 thousand pounds U3O8 for delivery in September. Bids are due to the producer no later than September 11. 

Additional buyers are showing renewed interest in entering the uranium market. Nevertheless, these buyers can still be categorized as discretionary in nature with no active “must have” demand reported. As such, there is a wide variation of price expectations among potential buyers and sellers. However, the gap between what buyers are willing to bid and sellers are willing to offer has narrowed considerably from the gap that has persisted for the past month.


----------



## lancer

U is now at $75, hope that is far as it will go....


----------



## eMark

lancer said:


> U is now at $75, hope that is far as it will go....




Well that explains the lame performance of PDN on the Toronto exchange and todays ASX.


----------



## eMark

Not sure as to the 'level' of signifigance, but the 'spot' price for Uranium for December shot up $8.50 overnight

Contract-------------Month---Time----Last---Chg-Open--High--Low 
URANIUM U308 SWAP  Dec '07 15:49:21 84.50 s 8.50 83.50 84.50 83.50 

Delayed data retrieved on Oct 13 06:41:03 GMT • All quotes are in exchange local time • Data provided by FutureSource 
s - Settlement Price       y - Yesterday's Settlement Price       e - Estimated 

Chart

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=XUX%20Z7


----------



## lancer

eMark said:


> Not sure as to the 'level' of signifigance, but the 'spot' price for Uranium for December shot up $8.50 overnight
> 
> Contract-------------Month---Time----Last---Chg-Open--High--Low
> URANIUM U308 SWAP  Dec '07 15:49:21 84.50 s 8.50 83.50 84.50 83.50
> 
> Delayed data retrieved on Oct 13 06:41:03 GMT • All quotes are in exchange local time • Data provided by FutureSource
> s - Settlement Price       y - Yesterday's Settlement Price       e - Estimated
> 
> Chart
> 
> http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=XUX%20Z7




Mark, How does this price you are referring to relate to the current prices for U being purchased on sites such as tradetech.com?


----------



## lancer

*U price up $3*

In the Market ... 
The uranium spot market showed the first signs of strengthening this week, after 16 weeks of falling or flat prices, with TradeTech’s Uranium Spot Price Indicator increasing $3.00 to $78.00 per pound U3O8. Buyers have begun re-entering the market and four transactions are reported. In recent months, a number of sellers have been motivated by cash needs, lowering offer prices or accepting bids below the current market price in order to secure sales. These sellers have now successfully placed the majority of this material and appear to have satisfied their near-term requirements. With this supply removed from the market, sellers, sensing that the market has reached an inflection point, are cautiously moving their offer prices up.


----------



## eMark

lancer said:


> Mark, How does this price you are referring to relate to the current prices for U being purchased on sites such as tradetech.com?




Lancer

Sounds to me from your last post, you have worked it out, but from mid-April NYMEX launched uranium futures contracts. Where day to day, the monthly futures contract pricing can change. This is different to the week to week spot price. I mis labled to my last post as a 'spot' price, whereas I meant futures market instead.


----------



## eMark

Spot Uranium Up By 4% - The End Of The Tunnel?
FN Arena News - October 16 2007 

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

The news that industry consultant TradeTech has lifted its weekly spot price indicator for U3O8 (uranium concentrate, otherwise known as yellow cake) is spreading fast throughout the global financial sector.

According to the latest market update the weekly spot price now stands at US$78/lb, up 4% or US$3 from the previous week. According to our market sources, TradeTech has recorded four separate transactions over the week totalling 800,000 pounds of yellow cake.

There are unconfirmed reports going around that three out of four of these transactions involve financial players. Three of the reported deals were concluded at US$75/lb, with the fourth "at or very near US$78/lb". This last one is thus responsible for the price rise.

Equally bullish seems the fact that activity from US utilities seems to be increasing on the long term contract market. Our sources tell us that TradeTech reports new demand stems from a US utility which issued a RFP (request for proposals) for 3.6Mlbs. Delivery is for 2012-2017 and offers are due November 16th.

Also, eight other utilities are reported seeking 20Mlbs for delivery between 2007-2017 while several other utilities are believed considering (re)entering the market.


----------



## powerkoala

wow for the first time it's up $3
now at $78
hopefully it will be back to 100 again soon


----------



## lancer

Up another $2 to $80.


----------



## eMark

Spot Uranium Continues To Rise
FN Arena News - October 29 2007 

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck


The return of hedge funds and other financial speculators has led to a third price rise for spot U3O8 (uranium oxide) in three weeks with industry consultant TradeTech reportedly lifting its weekly price indicator by US$4 to US$84/lb on Friday.


According to the industry consultant, at least 350,000 pounds were sold via two separate transactions during the past week.


----------



## powerkoala

spot price now $85.
wow.. keep rising yellow cake


----------



## eMark

powerkoala said:


> spot price now $85.
> wow.. keep rising yellow cake




Also last nights (31/10/07) U futures for December was up another $5.30 to finish at $97.30

http://futuresource.quote.com/quotes/quotes.jsp?s=XUX&t=Future


----------



## lancer

Power,

Can I ask where you got the update from? Do you subscribe to an update? I am only aware it is updated at the beginning of each week through a couple websites.


----------



## powerkoala

lancer said:


> Power,
> 
> Can I ask where you got the update from? Do you subscribe to an update? I am only aware it is updated at the beginning of each week through a couple websites.




http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx
regards

PS: most uranium stocks now fly high like crazy...


----------



## eMark

lancer said:


> Power,
> 
> Can I ask where you got the update from? Do you subscribe to an update? I am only aware it is updated at the beginning of each week through a couple websites.



For the weekly spot price take a look at www.fnarena.com

They tend to announce significant changes at the beginning of the week. It's also a great site.

For the monthly futures price, see my link in a couple of posts above.


----------



## powerkoala

wow... today's most of uranium stocks go nuts.
WMT now up 30%
URA up 22%
SNU up 18%
PEN up 16%
BLR up 14%
and the list goes on and on.......
looks like uranium hype is back... 
is it only for today or .......... ???


----------



## moses

Not to mention MTN which shot up at the last moment. Looks like I bought in not a moment too soon...


----------



## lancer

yeah, I wonder if there was a sale at a higher price than $85 or if the ccj/cco and Uranium one played a big part or if it was just time for a big boost or all three?


----------



## lancer

Spot Price $90


----------



## eMark

lancer said:


> Spot Price $90




Well that doesn't surprise me considering the December futures hit $97.30 this week. But it's only Saturday, usually the spot is announced on a Monday? Where did you get your info from? I can't find the info anywhere. It's great news anyway.


----------



## eMark

eMark said:


> Well that doesn't surprise me considering the December futures hit $97.30 this week. But it's only Saturday, usually the spot is announced on a Monday? Where did you get your info from? I can't find the info anywhere. It's great news anyway.




Well I seem to have found the story that talks about U at $90 a pound. It was published on Nov 1. Unsure whether the price announcement was made available officially? pre Friday nights trade to affect movement? But then again the US was volatile to say the least, so that wouldn't have helped.

Friday nights TSX stocks CCO and UUU did modestly well, but PDN lost 10c to close out at 7.35 which I was disappointed with. It will be interesting to see how PDN. (Aust) fairs on Monday. It will either drop a little or stride out and show some leadership once it becomes more widely known of the price rise.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ams8z6WYf84I

Uranium Advances 7% After Delays, Cuts by Cameco, Uranium One 

By Yuriy Humber

Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Uranium rose 7 percent this week after Cameco Corp. delayed a project and Uranium One Inc. and Paladin Resources Ltd. cut production forecasts. 

Uranium oxide concentrate for immediate delivery, used to make fuel for nuclear power plants, rose to $90 a pound, from $84 at the end of last week, Denver-based pricing service TradeTech LLC said yesterday. The metal has jumped 20 percent in a month. 

The advance ``gained momentum as news of production shortfalls made its way into the market,'' TradeTech said in a report. That ``prompted sellers to withdraw from the market.'' 

Production delays will worsen a uranium shortage that in June helped propel the price to a record $138 a pound. The shortfall in supply has already forced producers including Cameco and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. to buy material on the spot market this year to meet contracts. 

Uranium miners produced 103 million pounds of the metal last year, equal to about 65 percent of world demand. The rest came from government stockpiles and material extracted from decommissioned nuclear weapons. 

Cameco said yesterday it will delay the start of its Cigar Lake mine to 2011. The mine was originally expected to account for about a 10th of world output from this year. It is the largest untapped source of uranium and flooded in October 2006. 

Uranium One, owner of South Africa's biggest uranium deposit, on Oct. 30 cut its 2008 production target by 38 percent because of a shortage of sulfuric acid needed to recover the metal from mines in Kazakhstan. 

Paladin, the Australia-based company producing uranium in Namibia, said Oct. 26 it will produce 650,000 pounds at the Langer Heinrich mine in the second half of this year, a third less than expected. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Yuriy Humber in Moscow at yhumber@bloomberg.net 

Last Updated: November 1, 2007 10:19 EDT


----------



## Wysiwyg

> Denver, CO (PRWEB) Nov 2, 2007”” TradeTech’s spot uranium price climbed to US$90 per pound uranium oxide (U3O8) on October 31””a 20 percent increase over the past four weeks.




The spot price might be on the way up again?


----------



## lancer

Emark,

you probably figured it out already from the above posts but if not its:

http://www.uranium.info/

published by trade tech.

Usually it does come out monday night but for some reason its earlier this time. I think it may have something to do if its good news they publish it faster, just a thought though


----------



## eMark

Uranium Heating Up Again, Says Wizard
FN Arena News - November 05 2007 

Just like many other market watchers, the Tech Wizard had been underestimating the technical correction that commenced in June this year and nearly halved the spot price of uranium oxide (U3O8) in a time span of 16 weeks only.

However, weekly spot prices set by industry consultants TradeTech and Ux Consulting have risen again over the past few weeks and the Wizard’s own investigation in the industry has provided him with enough confidence to predict that spot U3O8 will soon surpass the price of a barrel of crude oil again.

Moreover, the Tech Wizard believes we could be talking a spot price of US$100+/lb before the end of this month -under a best case scenario- but most certainly before the end of December. His personal contacts inside the global professional investment community have ensured him hot money is looking at re-entering the sector again, with confidence currently riding high that uranium will regain its hot spot status in the market soon.

To his personal observation confidence amongst professional speculators in the industry hasn’t been this high for months. This strengthens his conviction in retaining a positive bias towards Australian uranium stocks.

Adding to what he believes is the best looking prospect for uranium prices and share prices of uranium stocks since the technical correction commenced in late June is the fact that Canadian market leader Cameco has again further delayed the opening of its flagship Cigar Lake mine. This mine should be supplying the global market with some 10% extra product, but Cameco management last week pushed the projected ramp up date into 2011. Originally, the mine was scheduled to commence production this calendar year already.

This suggests the market is likely to remain undersupplied for longer than currently penciled in by most securities analysts, he says.

The Tech Wizard notes how industry experts have doubted Cameco management’s earlier statements that production would only be delayed by twelve months only. Later that statement had been revised into a projected start up date sometime in 2010-2011. Since last week the market has become aware that Cigar Lake won’t be supplying any yellow cake into the market until at least 2011.

Looking at Australia’s two leading producers from a technical perspective, the Tech Wizard observes that both share prices of Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) and Paladin Resources ((PDN)) have found support at their 20 moving averages (M/A) since the correction began in June.

This is a good sign, he says.

ERA’s share price has bounced back since sinking below $15 and subsequently finding support at the 20 moving average (M/A), the Tech Wizard says.

He says the MACD indicator is bullish and this supports his positive view.

For Paladin the prospects look even better, he says. After topping out above $10 the shares have fallen 50% to bottom out below $5. As said above, after this the share price found solid support at the 20 moving average (M/A), the Wizard says, and this month his chart shows a bullish breakaway gap.

If by the end of November this gap is still in place this would be a very bullish sign for Paladin shares, says the Wizard, as this would indicate there is strong support for the stock at this price level.

Again, the MACD indicator is bullish and this adds to his positive view.

The Tech Wizard currently owns no shares in any of the companies mentioned in this story.


----------



## eMark

U3O8 Spot Price Continues To Rise
FN Arena News - November 06 2007 

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck


Confidence is rising among sellers of uranium oxide (U3O8) that prices will move up and will continue doing so in the times ahead. This is not our personal assessment but the view from industry consultant TradeTech as expressed in its latest weekly update on the uranium sector.

TradeTech has picked up from the market place that speculators are moving back in and sellers have become reluctant to commit to any offers received as they have the impression that waiting a little while can do wonders for the price achieved for their product.

TradeTech puts it as follows: “The majority of sellers expect spot uranium prices to strengthen over the next few months, and as a result, are very hesitant to commit to sales at this time.”

It is because of this reason that TradeTech has decided to add another US$3 to its weekly spot price indicator to take it to US$93 per pound on Friday. Last week the consultant raised its price indicator to US$90 from US$84 the prior week.

Ux Consulting, the other sector consultant who sets a weekly spot price indicator, raised by US$5 to US$85/lb last week.

This week TradeTech’s judgement, on the basis of information received from buyers and sellers in the market place, is that it will require a price above last week’s benchmark of US$90 to successfully conclude a transaction.

No transactions were recorded in the long term market and this explains why the long term price indicator has remained unchanged at US$95/lb.


----------



## exgeo

*(UK) Nuclear plants set for go-ahead*

Let's hope that this helps to snap the uranium's out of their downtrend:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7179579.stm


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well I watched the 7.30 report tonight which was telling the story of Indonesia building 4 nuclear power plants within a decade.
All good for U3O8.


----------



## exgeo

*UK nuclear expansion seen as boon for Aussie uranium*

From today's West Australian newspaper:

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=32&ContentID=54078


----------



## exgeo

Does any one of the more technical types have a way to construct a uranium index of Aussie companies? This guy does one for Canadian companies:

www.techuranium.blogspot.com/

I guess it would not be so hard if one had charting software? I'm not basically a tech guy, so I don't have the software myself. Here's a list of companies that ought to give some indication of what's going on in the sector:

ACB AEE AEX AGS ARU BLR BMN CTS CUY DYL EKM ENR ERA EVE EXT FSN HDG HDN MDX MEP MLI MRO MTN MXR PDM PDN PEN PNN SIM SLX TOE UEQ UKL UNO UNX URA UTO UXA WCU WHE WME

Any thoughts? Gotta be close to the bottom, post Opes and hedge-fund divestments etc. It'd be nice to know HOW close! My own subjective opinion is that they've hit bottom, tested it and started to creep up again.


----------



## Crumpy

check out this site

http://www.energymetals.net/userfiles/file/uraniumtext21april08final.pdf


hope this helps


----------



## Sean K

Some have the opinion it's going up.

Seen a few articles claiming a bottom was in.

They could be wrong of course.

0919 [Dow Jones] Citi expects spot uranium price to rally; reiterates Buy ratings for Paladin (PDN.AU) and Energy Resources of Australia (ERA.AU). "We remain uranium bulls and expect the spot price to rally further in the remainder of 2008 and into 2009," Citi says. Says Rio Tinto's (RIO.AU) sale of Kintyre for US$495 million implies a value for Paladin's undeveloped resources of between US$790 million and US$1 billion vs Citi's valuation of US$890 million. The Kintyre deal implies a value for ERA's Jabiluka deposit of between US$1.8 billion and US$2.4 billion, well above Citi's valuation of US$350 million, which only assumes a 25% probability of development due to historical opposition from traditional owners. ERA target price set at A$26 a share, Paladin at A$6.80. ERA last traded at A$23.34 and Paladin at A$6.42. (APW)


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## rederob

kennas said:


> Some have the opinion it's going up.
> 
> Seen a few articles claiming a bottom was in.
> 
> They could be wrong of course.
> 
> 0919 [Dow Jones] Citi expects spot uranium price to rally; reiterates Buy ratings for Paladin (PDN.AU) and Energy Resources of Australia (ERA.AU). "We remain uranium bulls and expect the spot price to rally further in the remainder of 2008 and into 2009," Citi says. Says Rio Tinto's (RIO.AU) sale of Kintyre for US$495 million implies a value for Paladin's undeveloped resources of between US$790 million and US$1 billion vs Citi's valuation of US$890 million. The Kintyre deal implies a value for ERA's Jabiluka deposit of between US$1.8 billion and US$2.4 billion, well above Citi's valuation of US$350 million, which only assumes a 25% probability of development due to historical opposition from traditional owners. ERA target price set at A$26 a share, Paladin at A$6.80. ERA last traded at A$23.34 and Paladin at A$6.42. (APW)



The overhang of excess uranium (uncontracted) has now been worked off for the greater part.
It appears that long term supply contracts have held in the $90 range throughout the period that spot prices fell through the floor.
Accordingly, there is little or no more downside to spot so expect a rapid retrace to the $90 range.
Thereafter some sanity may prevail and the spike of last year should be avoided as uranium prices march strongly higher.
There is a foreboding inevitability that baseload power generation decisions will quickly move towards a nuclear paradigm as the cost and availability of other energy sources desensitises us to this reality.


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## ChomChom

For those who don't know this site: http://www.uraniumseek.com/
I find it pretty good.
This article is interesting http://seekingalpha.com/article/842...ming-will-lead-to-a-uranium-boom?source=yahoo

Spot price +1$... at least it starting to show some signs of life


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## michael_selway

exgeo said:


> Does any one of the more technical types have a way to construct a uranium index of Aussie companies? This guy does one for Canadian companies:
> 
> www.techuranium.blogspot.com/
> 
> I guess it would not be so hard if one had charting software? I'm not basically a tech guy, so I don't have the software myself. Here's a list of companies that ought to give some indication of what's going on in the sector:
> 
> *ACB AEE AEX AGS ARU BLR BMN CTS CUY DYL EKM ENR ERA EVE EXT FSN HDG HDN MDX MEP MLI MRO MTN MXR PDM PDN PEN PNN SIM SLX TOE UEQ UKL UNO UNX URA UTO UXA WCU WHE WME*
> 
> Any thoughts? Gotta be close to the bottom, post Opes and hedge-fund divestments etc. It'd be nice to know HOW close! My own subjective opinion is that they've hit bottom, tested it and started to creep up again.




Hi nice list of uranium companies

Can you split them in producers/near producers/explorers?

thx

MS


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## Schmuckie

michael_selway said:


> Hi nice list of uranium companies
> 
> Can you split them in producers/near producers/explorers?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Here's a list divided by that criteria:  http://www.u3o8.biz/s/UraniumStocks.asp?ListSortOrder=Custom50,Title


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## alankew

Taken from Grant64 on HC,
Here's some great news for the U-Bulls, Uranium Spot has risen 3 weeks running.

TradeTech
Increase $3.25/lb 
Now $63.25/lb


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## Dutchy3

Ta AK

I'm long PDN via cfd so watching this one closely ...

Waiting for the general media to reserect the debate in light of rising energy costs and the lunacy in the Middle East ...


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## alankew

Dutchy no problem,Im long too via CFD(very)so am watching it maybe closer than you.PDN seems unstoppable atm,certainly lifted the grim look on my face.By the way I have missed your charts around here,particularly the breakouts of a descending triangle(?)


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## Dutchy3

AK ... thanks ... basically I blew up ... while I my hit loss ration is (was) better that 50% my MM and Risk plan was terrible.

Just in the process of rebuilding .... slowly!


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## ChomChom

Even better, check this:

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSL1564323120080715



> *Spot uranium price climbs with Nufcor raising cash*
> LONDON, July 15 (Reuters) - The spot price of uranium, used to fuel the world's nuclear plants, rose $4 to $64 per pound this week, according to the web site of Ux Consulting, a leading publisher of uranium prices and forecasts.
> 
> Traders said the price UX-U3O8-SPT was supported by London-listed Nufcor Uranium Ltd (NU.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) currently raising money to buy uranium by offering shares during a road show in Canada.
> 
> "The only true demand currently is Nufcor, they are on their road show so let's see what they come back with," a uranium trader said.
> 
> The North American road show would finish on Thursday, traders said.
> 
> The holding company owns around 2.3 million pounds of uranium stocks for investment purposes and at the end of June it said it would raise more cash to up its holding.
> 
> Traders said the firm was looking to raise around $75 million, buying some 1 to 1.4 million pounds of uranium.
> 
> "But they have to convince their shareholders to collect the money ... the amount is subject to fund raising," the trader said.
> 
> At least 90 percent of the net proceeds of the offering would be used to buy uranium, traders said, and an application had been made to list the shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
> 
> The market is still waiting for the exact amount and the offer price of the shares.
> 
> Nufcor Uranium was not immediately available for comment.
> 
> The two largest funds holding uranium are Canada's Uranium Participation Corp. (UPC) (U.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Nufcor -- which together own around 8 million pounds of uranium.
> 
> (Reporting by Anna Stablum; editing by Nigel Hunt)


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## fellsusan

exgeo said:


> Does any one of the more technical types have a way to construct a uranium index of Aussie companies? This guy does one for Canadian companies:
> 
> www.techuranium.blogspot.com/
> 
> I guess it would not be so hard if one had charting software? I'm not basically a tech guy, so I don't have the software myself. Here's a list of companies that ought to give some indication of what's going on in the sector:
> 
> ACB AEE AEX AGS ARU BLR BMN CTS CUY DYL EKM ENR ERA EVE EXT FSN HDG HDN MDX MEP MLI MRO MTN MXR PDM PDN PEN PNN SIM SLX TOE UEQ UKL UNO UNX URA UTO UXA WCU WHE WME
> 
> Any thoughts? Gotta be close to the bottom, post Opes and hedge-fund divestments etc. It'd be nice to know HOW close! My own subjective opinion is that they've hit bottom, tested it and started to creep up again.




Regarding an Australian Uranium Index, Intierra posts their own index. It can be found by clicking here: www.intierra.com/aui_graph_current.html Although, they might have turned it into a subscriber service.

Also, Another good source for all kinds of uranium information can be found by clicking here: www.uraniumstrategies.com

Susan


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## bmgold

Susane,

I am running my little index on Aussie uranium shares just to get a basic idea of the sentiment. I can create an index with all the shares from your list end present it here. See the weekly chart of my current index.

http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/2300/screenhunter440by2.jpg


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## fellsusan

bmgold said:


> Susane,
> 
> I am running my little index on Aussie uranium shares just to get a basic idea of the sentiment. I can create an index with all the shares from your list end present it here. See the weekly chart of my current index.
> 
> http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/2300/screenhunter440by2.jpg




Ooooo... I like it very much. 

Is it only for personal consumption, or do you have it posted somewhere?

Susan


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## bmgold

I can publish it on this forum daily or whenever there is some interesting development. BTW it consists of only 5 stocks PDN, ERA, DYL, BLR and SMM. I will create today one with the shares from the list to see if there are any significant differences.

I usually use this other chart to gauge the Aussie uranium market breadth. It seems like we are close to the bottom. 

http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/135/screenhunter443sa4.jpg

I run similar indexes for banks, oil and gold market in AUS.


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## Garpal Gumnut

bmgold said:


> I can publish it on this forum daily or whenever there is some interesting development. BTW it consists of only 5 stocks PDN, ERA, DYL, BLR and SMM. I will create today one with the shares from the list to see if there are any significant differences.
> 
> I usually use this other chart to gauge the Aussie uranium market breadth. It seems like we are close to the bottom.
> 
> http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/135/screenhunter443sa4.jpg
> 
> I run similar indexes for banks, oil and gold market in AUS.




A nice chart bmgold, I've only started following U stocks recently.

gg


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## fellsusan

bmgold said:


> I can publish it on this forum daily or whenever there is some interesting development. BTW it consists of only 5 stocks PDN, ERA, DYL, BLR and SMM. I will create today one with the shares from the list to see if there are any significant differences.
> 
> I usually use this other chart to gauge the Aussie uranium market breadth. It seems like we are close to the bottom.
> 
> http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/135/screenhunter443sa4.jpg
> 
> I run similar indexes for banks, oil and gold market in AUS.




Well... if your interested in posting towards perhaps a larger audience using a greater girth of companies within your Australian Index, I can send an email to the GM of uraniumstrategies.com and see if he can create a special page and login for you to upload there.

Let me know if your interested...

Susan


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## bmgold

Sure, I'm ok with that.

Here are the charts for 31.07.08

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/3927/screenhunter450df7.jpg
http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/8852/screenhunter451xq5.jpg


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## bmgold

Sorry, wrong charts, here are the new ones.

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/4133/screenhunter453ne1.jpg
http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/176/screenhunter452hx5.jpg


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## alankew

Important news from Cameco"s Cigar Lake should lead to a short term hike in price of U  http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1225728520080813


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## exgeo

Does anybody know whether Ospraie, the collapsed commodities-focussed hedge fund was heavily into Canadian uranium stocks such as Mega, Cameco, Denison and so on? Most are heavily down in the last week or so (like 30%) but I haven't noticed any equivalent selloff in Aussie uraniums. At least not in the ones I hold anyway (AGS, EME, SMM, TOE).


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## spooly74

Up $5 to $53 last week....



> November 14, 2008–The uranium market was beset with negative news from the production sector again this week. A host of producers including Cameco, Denison, Uranium One, URI, and First Uranium indicated that they are either scaling back financial expenditures or production forecasts. These developments, along with a decrease in spot supplies in recent weeks, have contributed to further strengthening of the current spot price.
> 
> Significant demand continues to emerge with off-market buyers acquiring over one million pounds U3O8 equivalent in five transactions over the past week, with each transaction concluded at successively higher prices. *The buyers were utilities, intermediaries, and producers. Buyers are willing to pay higher prices to secure material and sellers, sensing that the momentum has shifted back in their favor, are raising offer prices with each new inquiry from buyers. *As a result, TradeTech’s Spot Price Indicator rose this week to $53.00 per pound U3O8, up $5.00 from last week’s indicator.




http://www.uranium.info/index.cfm?go=c.page&id=103


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## exgeo

The price per-pound of resource is about 2-3 times that for recent transactions such as Valhalla (VUL), Omega (OMC), Redport (whose main asset was Lake Maitland before the takeover by Mega Uranium) and the sale of Kintyre by RTZ. However, Lake Maitland is more advanced than these other projects.

This might have interesting consequences for the likes of Toro (TOE) who also have a similarly-sized calcrete uranium project in WA at a similar or slightly more advanced stage of development.



> *Mega Uranium To Sell 35% of Lake Maitland Resource for US$49 Million to Japan Australia Uranium Resources Development Co. Ltd. And ITOCHU Corporation*
> 
> Toronto, Canada, February 27, 2009 – Mega Uranium Ltd. (MGA-TSX) (“Mega Uranium”) is pleased to announce a significant milestone for the company welcoming JAURD (the Japan Australia Uranium Resources Development Co. Ltd.) and ITOCHU Corporation (ITOCHU) as its proposed 35% joint venture partners to advance the development of its Lake Maitland Project.  Lake Maitland, located in the Eastern Goldfields area of Western Australia, contains a national instrument 43-101 compliant Inferred Resource of 23.7 million pounds U3O8.
> 
> JAURD is a Japanese company mandated to acquire uranium resources in Australia on behalf of its shareholders, being three Japanese utilities -- The Kansai Electric Power Company, Incorporated (50%), Kyushu Electric Power Company, Incorporated (25%) and Shikoku Electric Power Company, Incorporation (15%) -- and ITOCHU Corporation (10%), the world’s second largest uranium trading house.
> 
> Stewart Taylor, President of Mega Uranium, commented, “After many months of negotiations, we have reached a favourable deal and are pleased to welcome our Japanese partners to help us advance the Lake Maitland Project to production.  JAURD’s expertise in the uranium industry and their specific experience of the Australian uranium market make them an ideal partner for us in this project.  Their shareholders, Kansai, Kyushu and Shikoku, will have access to uranium produced at Lake Maitland for their own use and ITOCHU will be able to participate in additional uranium off-take arrangements from the project”.
> 
> *Farm-In and Joint Venture Agreement*
> 
> Mega Uranium, JAURD and ITOCHU have entered into a non-binding memorandum of understanding in respect of the proposed farm-in and joint venture, which provides for aggregate payments of US$49 million by JAURD and ITOCHU to Mega Uranium in order to earn their aggregate 35% interest in the Lake Maitland Project.
> 
> Mega Uranium, JAURD and ITOCHU will enter into a definitive farm-in and joint venture agreement which initially provides that JAURD and ITOCHU will make payments to Mega Uranium for feasible studies at Lake Maitland Project in order to earn 35% interest in the Project, with further payments in the due course, subject to favorable results in feasible studies, including those for the alkaline leaching process.
> 
> Entering into a definitive agreement farm-in and joint venture agreement by the parties is subject to a number of conditions, including satisfactory completion by JAURD and ITOCHU of their due diligence, approvals of the transaction by the boards of directors of Mega Uranium, JAURD and ITOCHU, approvals required under the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 1975 and related Australian regulatory approvals.
> 
> Chairman and CEO of Mega Uranium, Sheldon Inwentash, stated, “I am very pleased with the progress made by Peter McNally, our Vice President, Project Development, and his team at Lake Maitland in the past few years.  We completed early prefeasibility studies and advanced metallurgical work ahead of the Western Australian government’s positive stance on uranium mining, which positioned Mega to be at the forefront of uranium activity in the State and allowed us to demonstrate the viability and robustness of this project to JAURD and ITOCHU.
> 
> Mega Uranium is well financed and, together with JAURD and ITOCHU, can meet the capital expenditure requirements for the Project as set out in the recently completed and announced Lake Maitland scoping study (see press release dated October 21, 2008).


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## explod

I have beome interested in watching uranium stocks (AGS looking likely) but having difficulty in finding a general uranium price web page similar to Kitco for gold.   Any suggestions

cheers explod


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## Real1ty

explod said:


> I have beome interested in watching uranium stocks (AGS looking likely) but having difficulty in finding a general uranium price web page similar to Kitco for gold.   Any suggestions
> 
> cheers explod




Here you go mate http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx


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## explod

Real1ty said:


> Here you go mate http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx




Right on the spot, thank you sincerely

cheers explod


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## prs

Yeh, UXC seems to provide good info' especially where and when new reactors are to be built and which countries are becoming interested in U. I have kept an eye on this site for sometime but haven't seen too many comments or reports about Australia becoming interested in this commodity.


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## exgeo

From Page 17 of Today's presentation by Toro TOE:



> The Australian uranium market has fallen from EV/Resource values of around A$10-A$12/lb to around A$4/lb today
> Recent corporate level transactions completed between A$8-A$10/lb (egKintyre, Honeymoon & Lake Maitland)


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## Sean K

Uranium price has slowly ticked lower under $50 recently surprising many analysts who continue to be bullish long term. Many here thought POU would remain bouyant for ever due to the percieved supply/demand scenario. Many were wrong. From what I had read $75 seemed a reasonable long term price with $95 the upside. I din't think we'd see sub $50 again, but maybe the GEC has been a factor also. 

I'm only left with PDN as a long term position.

A recent article for consideration off Share Cafe:

*Uranium: Short, Long and Stocks*
BY ANDREW NELSON - 22/09/2009

Week by week the uranium spot price ticks a little lower, this week it's down a noteworthy US$2.00 to $42.50 reports uranium market consultant TradeTech. Yet while the spot price continues to slide, the longer term prospects for uranium continue to improve, at least in the eyes of some brokers.

In part, the brightening outlook of uranium is due to the lower levels of supply that the current tight times are causing. But as RBS points out, there is likely to be a sharp increase in demand in the years ahead as increasing nuclear consumption begins to kick in.

The single biggest problem facing the short-term market is the doubt being cast by the imminent release into the market of as much as 1,200 tonnes of UF6 by October 15 by the US Department of Energy. This doubt is seeing an increasing number of spot sellers deciding to take pre-emptive action and sell existing inventories before this new material finds its way into the market.

This move to lower prices has seen a number of buyers take advantage, with a total of five transactions, totalling approximately 900,000 pounds U3O8 equivalent, taking place last week. TradeTech reports that active demand is made op almost entirely of discretionary buyers, with many more still on the sidelines waiting for even lower prices.

This near term price weakness stands at stark contrast to the longer-term view held by RBS, with the broker remaining bullish on the outlook for uranium over the near and medium terms. The broker notes the growth in nuclear power capacity continues to increase each year, with high construction rates being driven by China and Russia, which it expects to continue.

Compounding the benefit that this increasing demand outlook will bring is the broker's view that current logistical, statutory and operating bottlenecks in key production regions such as Canada, Australia and Namibia, will place significant pressure on future supply plans. In fact, RBS expects the uranium market will move into a supply deficit as soon as 2014 .

So despite the last month's downward trend in the spot price, the broker sees the underlying fundamentals of increasing supply and tightening demand coming to bear soon. RBS is not only forecasting an upward trend for the term uranium price, but it also sees returning strength in spot uranium prices as well. The broker expects this trend will soon emerge and will carry on until at least 2011. At that point the broker expects the price will peak at US$95/lb as the market begins to seriously tighten ahead of the expiry of the US-Russian highly enriched uranium (HEU) programme in 2013.

Of the two big Aussie uranium plays (outside the diversifieds), RBS thinks Paladin Energy (PDN) offers the prospect of higher returns, but of course, also higher risk. Following a recent $429m private placement, the broker thinks the balance sheet is in good shape, with FY10 gearing at 16% and the company moving into a net cash position by the end of FY12. The broker also likes the company's longer-term uranium exposure given its production base is now diversified, with strong production growth and resource upgrades likely.

Paladin will still need to deliver on its production targets, though, and there is potential acquisition risk given the broker sees the company as likely to acquire assets in the next 12-18 months to lock in some kind of production growth after Langer Heinrich Stage 3 comes on-line. RBS's recommendation on the stock is Buy, with the FNArena sentiment indicator sitting at 0.3. There are just two Buys on the stock including the one from RBS, while there are also five Holds.

Yet while the broker sees Paladin as providing good leverage to the longer-term uranium picture, it also sees peer Energy Resources of Australia ((ERA)) as providing some good leverage to a soon to improve spot. The broker sees the stock as having much less risk on a short-term basis given its current high degree of earnings resilience and strong cash flow.

RBS expects to see expanding margins over the next few years as lower-priced legacy contracts roll off the books and the company is able to take advantage of higher spot and term prices. The broker is also counting on positive news flow over the near to medium-term, as more drill results and details on growth projects are released. That said, RBS has had to push through some downgrades to its near-term earnings forecasts on the back of higher AUD forecasts.

Still, the broker's Buy call is maintained and it is a call, much like Paladin, that is shared by only one other broker. Other than these two Buys, there are three Holds and three Sells on ERA, which make for a reading of minus 0.1 on the FNArena sentiment indicator.

TradeTech's mid-term price benchmark has remained unchanged at US$55/lb. Its longer term price benchmark remains at US$65/lb.


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## So_Cynical

I stumbled across this series of posts at "the oil drum" while researching energy from Thorium...in a nut shell the Opening poster is a nuclear energy boffin, and is predicting global shortages of U over the next 5 or so years....there's lots of posters with a counter view, so i don't really know what to make of it...however his pitch seems to make sense. :dunno:

Still its an interesting...very long read, if your genuinely interested in the subject...its a 4 part series of posts/discussions. 


Part 1 http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5631
Part 2 http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5677
Part 3 http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5744
Part 4 still to come


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