# Volume good, bad gut feeling (technical)



## highlowlowhigh (3 February 2010)

Hi guys...what do you think of this ? Im more of a technical guy not really fundamentals...and still a newbie :sheep:

My preferred style is swing, Iv seen a share price for the last few days with good volume...but it is just not getting higher and actually the price is going down...with a high buy pressure to sell (3:1)

It doesn't make sense technically and everytime something doesn't make sense I put it as price manipulation. Iv bought it and now I regret and am trying to get out.

Please give me advise ? Or correct me if Im wrong ? 

Thanks


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## nunthewiser (3 February 2010)

what stock is it ?


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## highlowlowhigh (3 February 2010)

SP*FKN*L   

by the way while i was writing my last msg i openned a depth in comsec, after i wrote it went up 5%...this share is really giving me bad luck.


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## skc (3 February 2010)

There has been some pretty bad threads on this forum...

But we may have a new winner.

:nosympath:


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## highlowlowhigh (3 February 2010)

why is this a bad thread ?

im a newbie remember ? im allowed to make mistakes and say and think silly things.

and hopefully ppl like urself can enlighten me.


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## 1q2w3e4r (3 February 2010)

No one is permitted to give you financial advice is probably what he is getting at.


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## Mr J (3 February 2010)

highlowlowhigh said:


> It doesn't make sense technically




A share price is going down with volume, and you assume it's manipulation?


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## highlowlowhigh (3 February 2010)

oh no im not asking for financial advise...

dun laugh pls i think im gonna ask a silly question.

but...what things about a share would stop it from increasing in price when buy pressure is higher than sell ? 

is this the resistance level ? if it is...doesn't resistant level slow down in demand as it reaches it, then the volume flips ? is it always the case ?

cos right now im really baffled..all the signs are there..and im just trying to understand and write down in my trading log where i went wrong. technically i tried to follow...even to the stochastics..(stochastics was on the higher end...but still not overbought)


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## Wysiwyg (3 February 2010)

I look at recent announcements before I buy any stock. There may be a hint of what to expect. Like a profit downgrade or a sales contract being reviewed or low drill rig availability.


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## highlowlowhigh (3 February 2010)

Mr J said:


> A share price is going down with volume, and you assume it's manipulation?




nooo the volume is going up...and share price is going down. that's my point..well today volume is slightly going down i can understand that...but what about the last few days ? it was really driving me insane.


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## Trembling Hand (3 February 2010)

highlowlowhigh said:


> nooo the volume is going up...and share price is going down. that's my point..well today volume is slightly going down i can understand that...but what about the last few days ? it was really driving me insane.




Two quick questions you have to ask before you bother with all the "how comes"

1. What was your stop BEFORE you purchased 

2. Has it hit it.

Thats TA.


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## highlowlowhigh (3 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Two quick questions you have to ask before you bother with all the "how comes"
> 
> 1. What was your stop BEFORE you purchased
> 
> ...




thanks....that's the first to go in the log.


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## Trembling Hand (3 February 2010)

highlowlowhigh said:


> Iv seen a share price for the last few days with good volume...but it is just not getting higher and actually the price is going down...*with a high buy pressure to sell (3:1) *



 What does "high buy pressure to sell" mean? I hope you are not thinking that just cause the Depth is stuffed with buy orders compared to sell orders that actually translates to buy/sell pressure??


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## highlowlowhigh (3 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> What does "high buy pressure to sell" mean? I hope you are not thinking that just cause the Depth is stuffed with buy orders compared to sell orders that actually translates to buy/sell pressure??




yes ! that's it ! well...that is one of my indicators. is that wrong ? i mean...if there are more guys wanting to buy than sell...there's a better chance the share price will trend upwards ? than when there are more sellers than buyers ?

this is quick trades by the way...1-3 days (or even minutes)..is it a crazy indicator for that time frame ?


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## Trembling Hand (3 February 2010)

highlowlowhigh said:


> yes ! that's it ! well...that is one of my indicators. is that wrong ? i mean...if there are more guys wanting to buy than sell...there's a better chance the share price will trend upwards ? than when there are more sellers than buyers ?
> 
> this is quick trades by the way...1-3 days..is it a crazy indicator for that time frame ?




Actually mate I would prefer to say nothing more while you are in the trade. Stick to your plan, hopefully you had one and your MM is under control.

Then when its over I will throw my  in.


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## Mr J (3 February 2010)

highlowlowhigh said:


> nooo the volume is going up...and share price is going down.




So?


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## highlowlowhigh (3 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually mate I would prefer to say nothing more while you are in the trade. Stick to your plan, hopefully you had one and your MM is under control.
> 
> Then when its over I will throw my  in.




plan is to make 5% a week (sounds like a newbie plan hey?)

MM is ummm...i need to read more about that too..i just started trading on Monday 

im reading you website now...perhaps i might learn a thing or two, thanks !


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## nunthewiser (3 February 2010)

KEEP YOUR CASH . BUY A PENCIL AND PAPER OR FIND A DEMO ACCOUNT.


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## highlowlowhigh (3 February 2010)

Mr J said:


> So?




so technically...it's normal ? it doesn't raise an eyebrow at all ?


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## skc (3 February 2010)

skc said:


> There has been some pretty bad threads on this forum...
> 
> But we may have a new winner.
> 
> :nosympath:




Sorry.. this is not a bad thread at all... it's turning out to be an awesome thread.

opcorn:


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## ThingyMajiggy (3 February 2010)

highlowlowhigh said:


> plan is to make 5% a week (sounds like a newbie plan hey?)
> 
> MM is ummm...i need to read more about that too..i just started trading on Monday
> 
> im reading you website now...perhaps i might learn a thing or two, thanks !




So thats 260% a year, started trading on Monday, and no MM. 

Good luck with that  

Use fake money first mate, trust me.


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## highlowlowhigh (3 February 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> KEEP YOUR CASH . BUY A PENCIL AND PAPER OR FIND A DEMO ACCOUNT.




iv been doing that for a looong time


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## highlowlowhigh (3 February 2010)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> So thats 260% a year, started trading on Monday, and no MM.
> 
> Good luck with that
> 
> Use fake money first mate, trust me.




guess i have to visit the MM thread here


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## cooper1308 (3 February 2010)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> So thats 260% a year, started trading on Monday, and no MM.
> 
> Good luck with that
> 
> Use fake money first mate, trust me.




Actually, compounded it's around 1264.28%


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## ThingyMajiggy (3 February 2010)

cooper1308 said:


> Actually, compounded it's around 1264.28%




True.  Piece of cake! lol


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## Sidamo (3 February 2010)

highlowlowhigh said:


> plan is to make 5% a week (sounds like a newbie plan hey?)




Mate, I'm a complete newbie and even I can recognise that you have no idea what you're doing. 

My gut instinct would tell me that if the volume is going up and the price is going down, that just means that the stock is **** and there are lots of people selling it.

I'd stop trading real money if I were you. You said that you've been trading on paper for a while. How did that work out for you???


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## Sir Osisofliver (3 February 2010)

highlowlowhigh said:


> oh no im not asking for financial advise...
> 
> dun laugh pls i think im gonna ask a silly question.
> 
> ...




Highlow - In regards to your volume question there are many things that can create the circumstances you describe.  Here is an example...

Lets say you are an institutional buyer (or Seller) and you have a large amount of volume to fill. Enough volume that your order alone will move the price action.

Do you a) Make your trade visible to the market and put all your volume on at once, or
b) Hide your volume and have an operator work the order in small lots over a few days or weeks?

*Welcome to hidden volume - every broking house around the world does it.  *

Stochastic oscillators... know how they work?  They essentially take the price action and compress all values between a 1-100 range. The indicator therefore *cannot go above 100.* The price action of the share however is not similarly limited, there are no artificial mathmatical fetters on the price action.  

The upshot of this is that a stochastic oscillator will quite frequently give you false selling signals, and will also quite frequently give you incorrect signals to "overbought" shares.  The same is not true however on the "oversold" side of the scale.  As a rule of thumb, you should *never *use a stochastic for an selling signal, only to confirm a buy signal indicated by the price action.

Hope that's helpful.

Cheers

Sir O


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## Unnamed User (3 February 2010)

Some very poor responses from some posters i thought better of in this thread.

Sure the guy has no idea but he has admitted that and is asking for some help in the beginners forum, how about at least helping a little or leaving the smart ass stuff out.

When it comes to the market depth and the amount of buy and sell orders listed my advice is for you to try and disgregard that information as it is only those that are in the queue and isn't a reliable guide.

MM stands for Money Management and is a project for you to go away and learn a bit about now as it is very important.


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## Smurf1976 (3 February 2010)

Unnamed User said:


> Some very poor responses from some posters i thought better of in this thread.
> 
> Sure the guy has no idea but he has admitted that and is asking for some help in the beginners forum, how about at least helping a little or leaving the smart ass stuff out.



Very strongly agreed there.

The vast majority of the population does not have significant knowledge in any given technical field be it medical, engineering, financial markets, mechanics or whatever. It may well seem a simple question to you, but to the majority of the population it's a complete mystery.

As I'm sitting here right now, I am also logged into another forum unrelated to investment / trading where someone is somewhat worried about their TV and fridge going off when they turn a tap on. Now, working that one out is something I can do because I have the required knowledge but to most people it would be a complete mystery. It may well be obvious to me what's wrong, but it sure isn't to the person asking - that's why they've asked on a public forum to find out what's going on.

Manners...


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## Trembling Hand (4 February 2010)

Unnamed User said:


> Some very poor responses from some posters i thought better of in this thread.






Smurf1976 said:


> Very strongly agreed there.




Guys there is a difference to the situation where someone is asking about something such as an electrical problem. That is a problem that can occur during ones normal activity. 

Then there are other problems like for example, "Guys, high I'm not very experienced, I hadn't even got my license yet but I just bought a new 750cc motorbike and went for a ride without a helmet at 150K/h. I just smashed into a tree. Whats wrong with the motorbike?" 

One problem has nothing to do with stupidity the other is almost the definition of it. Thus the replies one receives.

They are two extreme examples just as...... well examples.


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## Trembling Hand (4 February 2010)

Just to add to my above comment. There is also a fair amount of annoyance with the punters who are in effect running into the casino blinded by the chance to win big while ignoring the downside. And even being completely unprepared for it.

highlowlowhigh I'm not having a direct shot at you just stating that sometimes the replies some get are a result of their actions - to some degree.


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## Wysiwyg (4 February 2010)

Smurf1976 said:


> Very strongly agreed there.
> It may well be obvious to me what's wrong, but it sure isn't to the person asking - that's why they've asked on a public forum to find out what's going on.
> 
> Manners...




Yes I agree with this 110% and a polite explanation, patience and respect of the poster is the preferred way to go. If someone thinks the question is stupid or naive then simple ....

*Don't friggin respond.* 

Although as Trembling Hand noted, there are few occasions when posters are deliberately being stupid to attract attention or peeve others but best ignore those silly posts. 

Here's to respecting everyone no matter what stage they are at.


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## Timmy (4 February 2010)

Smurf1976 said:


> someone is somewhat worried about their TV and fridge going off when they turn a tap on.




I know I am off topic but this sounds like an interesting question.  What makes the TV and fridge turn off when a tap gets turned on??????


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## lukeaye (4 February 2010)

I don't understand why nobody wants to help this fellow? Anyway ill try and have a go.

1. Planning to make 5% a week, is not a plan. The plan is *HOW*

What will you do to get you to that? What strategies will you employ, and what money management techniques will you employ?

2. Learn about the insturments you trade. How they relate to the price/time/volume. How they interlate. (something im still trying to perfect).

3. DONT USE REAL MONEY YET. Papertrading or using a demo for a week and making fantastic profits, does not mean you can go straight out and translate that into real profits. Demo or paper trade over 6 months. Then see how much money u make.

4. Read this book, its a fantastic starting place. The best Money management book ive read when i was beginning. Its by Nick Radge, and its called adaptive analysis. Go and get it.

5. Dont expect to be making consistent money anytime soon. Could take you years.


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## Trembling Hand (4 February 2010)

lukeaye said:


> I don't understand why nobody wants to help this fellow? Anyway ill try and have a go.







lukeaye said:


> 1. Planning to make 5% a week, is not a plan. The plan is *HOW*
> 
> What will you do to get you to that? What strategies will you employ, and what money management techniques will you employ?




Thats not really even the start of a plan. Or if it is its a good trap. You haven't listed the most important thing. What test to prove your plan is possible/realistic/survivable.


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## tech/a (4 February 2010)

High volume with little movement in the direction of the volume (buying or selling)
Can be interpreted as absorbtion of Sellers OR Buyers as the case maybe.
An instrument will not continue to move in a direction until the absorbsion of one exceeds the other.There needs to be in balance in percieved value for price to move.

You will note volume drying up and range increasing once absorbtion is complete.

If you have a more than cursory interest in volume then a read of VSA principals would be of interest.

http://www.tradeguider.com/education/mtm.aspx


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## Timmy (4 February 2010)

$99US!!

C'mon Tech - give him the link to download the book for free.


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## Trembling Hand (4 February 2010)

tech/a said:


> There needs to be in balance in perceived value for price to move.




I don't follow . Could you explain some more? If there is perceived value on both sell and buy sides what will move the price from that value?


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## tech/a (4 February 2010)

Timmy said:


> $99US!!
> 
> C'mon Tech - give him the link to download the book for free.




Couldnt find it the e books $10 bucks.
Every now and then they give it away its not now evidently.


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## Aussiest (4 February 2010)

highlowlowhigh said:


> yes ! that's it ! well...that is one of my indicators. is that wrong ? i mean...if there are more guys wanting to buy than sell...there's a better chance the share price will trend upwards ? than when there are more sellers than buyers ?




Market depth isn't a bad indicator to use, but it's not that accurate. For example, there may be more sellers and more selling volume, but it might not be at the current price. There may be a lot of sellers waiting for it to hit xxx level. 

Also, look at candles and see if the bid has been hit. This would indicate some selling: the candle should be red.


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## lukeaye (4 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Thats not really even the start of a plan. Or if it is its a good trap. You haven't listed the most important thing. What test to prove your plan is possible/realistic/survivable.




How are you meant to test, if you dont come up with a strategy to test? 

Obviously im being very general, you can add thousands of words to each point i've made?

So you have now decided to help have you?


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## tech/a (4 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> I don't follow . Could you explain some more? If there is perceived value on both sell and buy sides what will move the price from that value?




In balance.
Take a long situation.
Price stalls yet volume rises sharply price keeps resisting at a level.
If after a few hrs/days whatever volume on one side dries up--say sell side then price will move further up with little volume.
There may also be a major influx of buyers who push price above resistance---as in a gap.Again buyers have over come sellers.

The reverse can be seen where sellers overcome buyers.
In the high volume little movement areas we need to either look at lower timeframes to gain a better picture or wait until it is evident in the timeframe we are trading.


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## Trembling Hand (4 February 2010)

lukeaye said:


> So you have now decided to help have you?




I'm pretty sure I told him to stick to his initial stop, make sure that his MM is correct (which by the sound of his emotive post its not) and that looking at the market depth the way he is is rubbish. AND when he is out of the trade I will happily add more.

WTF!! what do you guys want? For me to take responsibility for someone else's trade? Then what from there? start handing out $$'s if he sells on my opinion and it gaps up on the open by 10% in two days.


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## lukeaye (4 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm pretty sure I told him to stick to his initial stop, make sure that his MM is correct (which by the sound of his emotive post its not) and that looking at the market depth the way he is is rubbish. AND when he is out of the trade I will happily add more.
> 
> WTF!! what do you guys want? For me to take responsibility for someone else's trade? Then what from there? start handing out $$'s if he sells on my opinion and it gaps up on the open by 10% in two days.




That exactly what i want you to do. Please pm me details


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## Trembling Hand (4 February 2010)

lukeaye said:


> That exactly what i want you to do. Please pm me details




Yes I'm not surprised. I've seen your trading. :


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## Sir Osisofliver (4 February 2010)

lukeaye said:


> That exactly what i want you to do. Please pm me details






Trembling Hand said:


> Yes I'm not surprised. I've seen your trading. :




LOL - *puts a mark on TH's side of the ledger and gets the popcorn*


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## lukeaye (4 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes I'm not surprised. I've seen your trading. :




Im not trying to start an arguement, because we all know you are by far a more experienced trader then i, but your comments earlier, are far from helpful. I would expect more form you is all.


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## tech/a (4 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes I'm not surprised. I've seen your trading. :




Sorry Luke but thats funny its shows humor something I was certain T/H was in capable of.


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## nunthewiser (4 February 2010)

lukeaye said:


> Im not trying to start an arguement, because we all know you are by far a more experienced trader then i, but your comments earlier, are far from helpful. I would expect more form you is all.




And i am not here for an argument either BUT your comments " trying to help " had already been covered by TH and others already in this thread so basically unless rehashing stuff already posted is classed as helpful i suggest you look at yourself first before trying to attack people that have helped but with a more colourful manner

Thankyou.


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## lukeaye (4 February 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> And i am not here for an argument either BUT your comments " trying to help " had already been covered by TH and others already in this thread so basically unless rehashing stuff already posted is classed as helpful i suggest you look at yourself first before trying to attack people that have helped but with a more colourful manner
> 
> Thankyou.




Can you point out where that help was?

Back to handing you money over to the markets nun.

Anyway, this thread has nothing to do with me, i couldnt be bothered.

Sorry i will step aside as everyone so eagerly helps.


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## nunthewiser (4 February 2010)

lukeaye said:


> Can you point out where that help was?
> 
> Back to handing you money over to the markets nun.




Scroll back darl.

LOL re you thinking you know me .

last post from me to you as personally think you need to grow up a lil and read ppl,s posts for what they are instead of becoming emotionally blinded everytime someone disagrees with you.

Thankyou


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## lukeaye (4 February 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Scroll back darl.
> 
> LOL re you thinking you know me .
> 
> ...




Read back through this thread nun, nearly every post has some sort of hidden feeling of god your stupid, what are you doing? And a minute snipet of information which is highly unlikely to help him in any way whatsoever.

I get emotionally involved when i see somebody belittled for not knowing any better.

As i said. Ill step aside and im sure that he will get alot from this thread and his trading will improve 10 fold with the advice he has been given.


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## nunthewiser (4 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> What does "high buy pressure to sell" mean? I hope you are not thinking that just cause the Depth is stuffed with buy orders compared to sell orders that actually translates to buy/sell pressure??






nunthewiser said:


> KEEP YOUR CASH . BUY A PENCIL AND PAPER OR FIND A DEMO ACCOUNT.






Sidamo said:


> Mate, I'm a complete newbie and even I can recognise that you have no idea what you're doing.
> 
> My gut instinct would tell me that if the volume is going up and the price is going down, that just means that the stock is **** and there are lots of people selling it.
> 
> I'd stop trading real money if I were you. You said that you've been trading on paper for a while. How did that work out for you???






Sir Osisofliver said:


> Highlow - In regards to your volume question there are many things that can create the circumstances you describe.  Here is an example...
> 
> Lets say you are an institutional buyer (or Seller) and you have a large amount of volume to fill. Enough volume that your order alone will move the price action.
> 
> ...






tech/a said:


> High volume with little movement in the direction of the volume (buying or selling)
> Can be interpreted as absorbtion of Sellers OR Buyers as the case maybe.
> An instrument will not continue to move in a direction until the absorbsion of one exceeds the other.There needs to be in balance in percieved value for price to move.
> 
> ...




Ahha  Yep no one helps around here ........... unreal.


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## nunthewiser (4 February 2010)

Aussiest said:


> Market depth isn't a bad indicator to use, but it's not that accurate. For example, there may be more sellers and more selling volume, but it might not be at the current price. There may be a lot of sellers waiting for it to hit xxx level.
> 
> Also, look at candles and see if the bid has been hit. This would indicate some selling: the candle should be red.






tech/a said:


> In balance.
> Take a long situation.
> Price stalls yet volume rises sharply price keeps resisting at a level.
> If after a few hrs/days whatever volume on one side dries up--say sell side then price will move further up with little volume.
> ...




Forgot these also ? 

From where i am sitting Plenty people trying to help .........



MODS. sorry about the rehash of posts but thought it might be a good idea to point out that there has been some EXCELLENT help here so far and just because people whine about something it does not make it true

cheers


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## lukeaye (4 February 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Ahha  Yep no one helps around here ........... unreal.




My point is, after his intelligence has been insulted for consecutive posts, he probably has not read anything else? notice how he hasnt posted since?

Secondly, though there are some good pieces of information between the other posts, there isn't enough there to a new trader to be of any help. He needs to be referred to places where he can get better education. Like books, or other journals, like tech did.

Not arming him with a tiny bit of knowledge for him to go and blow some more money. THAT is my point


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## Trembling Hand (4 February 2010)

lukeaye said:


> Secondly, though there are some good pieces of information between the other posts, there isn't enough there to a new trader to be of any help. He needs to be referred to places where he can get better education. Like books, or other journals, like tech did.
> 
> Not arming him with a tiny bit of knowledge for him to go and blow some more money. THAT is my point




BS.

The only thing that matters right now is his stop. All the other crap can wait. If its going against him beyond what he's stop is, it going to help sweet F all getting onto Amazon and ordering adaptive analysis.

Or if his money management/position size is screwed up reading a book anit going to help his "bad gut feeling" TODAY.


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## tech/a (4 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> BS.
> 
> The only thing that matters right now is his stop. All the other crap can wait. If its going against him beyond what he's stop is, it going to help sweet F all getting onto Amazon and ordering adaptive analysis.
> 
> Or if his money management/position size is screwed up reading a book anit going to help his "bad gut feeling" TODAY.




Yeh thats true seeing its Master the Markets that will help the volume issue although Adaptive Analaysis wouldnt go astray either.

The solution to every problem isnt 1000s of hrs of practical theory---there are a lot of mice and Monkeys very glad of that!

Yeh it will help his gut feeling by confirming his observation. His loss is likely to be more than a book or 2 that in itself seems to be a great teacher (a loss) particularly if its common place and he doesnt know what his application of his "method" is likely to return after 1000 trades.

If he doesnt know how to skew his expectancy short and long term then it matters not what is said here on an individual topic (volume).


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## lukeaye (4 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> BS.
> 
> The only thing that matters right now is his stop. All the other crap can wait. If its going against him beyond what he's stop is, it going to help sweet F all getting onto Amazon and ordering adaptive analysis.




Sorry after reading your post, i realise that you meant ealier that RIGHT NOW the only thing you need to worry about is your sotp. Which i agree with 100%. I take that back TH i apologize. 

But i was talking more from a future education process.


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## brty (4 February 2010)

TH's,origanal comments....



> Actually mate I would prefer to say nothing more while you are in the trade. Stick to your plan, hopefully you had one and your MM is under control.
> 
> Then when its over I will throw my  in.




....really are the most appropriate.

 A new trader will always be highly emotional about a position. If the 'advise' spoke to the new trader about getting out now, and he acted on it instead of the original plan, his feelings would be about that so and so giving out false info (even if subconsciously).

Best to dissect a trade/trade plan foundation when money is off the table, especially for a new trader.

brty


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## Trembling Hand (4 February 2010)

brty said:


> TH's,origanal comments....
> 
> ....really are the most appropriate.




Glad there is enough brilliance scattered around this forum to recognise my own super duper brilliance


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## skyQuake (4 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Glad there is enough brilliance scattered around this forum to recognise my own super duper brilliance




Yeah i'll jump on the bandwagon too. Quick theres only a few spots left!

At least the guy was asking for real advice rather than being swamped by a need for confirmation bias.


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## tech/a (4 February 2010)

If the brilliance wanes I'm sure you'll point it out T/H.

Just looking at the trade itself it appears that it was taken as a breakout trade and the stock is performing pretty well to script given the consequent price action since the breakout.

Its tested both the high on breakout and failed
and the low support of 70c is currently holding.
The selling of the last 4 days is now on very low volume.
trailing stop at 69 pretty obvious for agressive trading and 
63c if you like floating in no mans land


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## brty (4 February 2010)

> Glad there is enough brilliance scattered around this forum to recognise my own super duper brilliance




brty picks up poison chalice, and places it carefully down again.

Makes note to self, never be so agreeable 

brty


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## Riddick (4 February 2010)

Hey you know I kinda wonder why you would be trying to play such short term trades if you are new to the markets. I have a few day trader/ short term trader friends and acquaintances and they have years of experience and they don't always make a great deal of money. The opposite can often be the case. I guess like most people I practice sound position sizing and MM strategies and thoroughly research every investment decision I make using a whole bunch of different indicators and fundamentals. Keeping in mind that technical analysis can in no way predict the future SP movement, only use past trends and current conditions to make predictions. 
For example - if you bought $10 000 worth of FMG in the eighties it was worth 76 million fifteen years later (before being what it is now). technical analysis could not and would not have accurately predicted this. Lots of people made lots of money from this. It wasn't the 1- 3 day crew I'll bet.
I'm not convinced your strategy of making $$$ in equities encompasses enough ideas, options, study, information, if you tie yourself to a single methodology. Just my opinion.


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## brty (4 February 2010)

Riddick,



> I'm not convinced your strategy of making $$$ in equities encompasses enough ideas, options, study, information, if you tie yourself to a single methodology.




I completely disagree. All you need is to get one little thingy/strategy correct, then rinse repeat.



> I practice sound position sizing and MM strategies and thoroughly research every investment decision I make using a whole bunch of different indicators and fundamentals.




Using a whole bunch of different indicators and fundamentals sounds like a recipe for confusion to me.



> if you bought $10 000 worth of FMG in the eighties it was worth 76 million fifteen years later (before being what it is now). technical analysis could not and would not have accurately predicted this. Lots of people made lots of money from this.




This type of statement beggars belief, how many penny dreadfulls would you have to hold from the '80's to now to get this type of benefit. How many would you have to have bought over the last 25 years that have subsequently gone bust or stayed as penny dreadfulls?? I would estimate hundreds, probably many hundreds.
Eventually all those little $10,000 investments start to add up to real money, what a naive statement.

brty


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## Trembling Hand (8 February 2010)

wonder how our friend with the bad gut feeling is going on his trade?

Still in? stop has been hit? Spewed it up with worry?


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## Riddick (8 February 2010)

brty said:


> Riddick,
> 
> 
> 
> ...




1. If the market were to stay the same indefinitely then you could use the same system ad nauseum and generate the same returns. Obviously the market does not stay the same, so the same strategy is not applicable in every situation. Add to the mix gov't regulations, growth of new industries, changes in technology and you need to change your approach, strategy and expectations. Obviously you are smarter than me as I like to incorporate new ideas, information and methodologies into my money making approach and evolve my knowledge in all associated areas. I don't have the luxury, obviously like yourself, of omnipotence and future sight to know my startegy is beyond reproach and will work forever with no change garaunteeing me everlasting success. How misguided I have been.

2. As you are aware there are different families of indicators. Does it not make PERFECT SENSE to correlate as many positive signals from as many different families of indicators before committing your hard earned cash? I obviously have this all wrong judging by your tone. I am sorry for being beneath you.

3. Some history for you. 12% of stocks on the australian market have returned 10 000% in their lifetime on the market. The quickest one of these took just 2 years. So that's 60 stocks from the top 500 companies. This point was to illustrate that somtimes doing APPROPRIATE research on fundamentals is BETTER than relying solely on technicla analysis. Afterall, as much as you would like to try and tell me otherwise, the previous performance of a stock in no way garauntees the future performance. Once again, sorry for being beneath you and BEGGARING your belief. 

I would like to point out that your "estimate of hundreds" or "many hundreds" is completely incorrect, unfounded and it appears the statement was made out of either your personal ignorance of the history of the australian market, bias against anyone other than your own having a successful strategy, or perhaps you are still harbouring latent resentment from some unresolved bad financial deciaion you made somewhere in the past?

Oh wait.. that wouldn't have happened because you are so much better than me.


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## Trembling Hand (8 February 2010)

Riddick said:


> 1. If the market were to stay the same indefinitely then you could use the same system ad nauseum and generate the same returns.



Essentially it does. You can argue about bull/bear and chop all you like but the more it changes ................

but then again if you say its always changing because of so many different events doesn't that make chasing the 10,000 bagger folly if your target is always shifting as you suggest? 



Riddick said:


> 2. As you are aware there are different families of indicators. Does it not make PERFECT SENSE to correlate as many positive signals from as many different families of indicators before committing your hard earned cash?



 I would say NO, but I'm sure there are plenty here, including me, who like it to be shown otherwise. not in hindsight but real time. Would be great to see.



Riddick said:


> 3. Some history for you. 12% of stocks on the australian market have returned 10 000% in their lifetime on the market........So that's 60 stocks from the top 500 companies.



 may I suggest you first learn about survivorship bias. Unless you can teach us about how to pick the top 60 that make it into the top 500 from the bottom 20% of the market.


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## Riddick (8 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Essentially it does. You can argue about bull/bear and chop all you like but the more it changes ................
> 
> but then again if you say its always changing because of so many different events doesn't that make chasing the 10,000 bagger folly if your target is always shifting as you suggest?
> 
> ...




I think you missed the point. If you make 9999% less than 10000% increase you still double your money.

Look to be honest I don't really care to add any more. Have fun on your high horses. Hope you don't fall off.


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## Trembling Hand (8 February 2010)

Riddick said:


> I think you missed the point. If you make 9999% less than 10000% increase you still double your money.




good one. and if you make 10001% less? *lol*



Riddick said:


> Look to be honest I don't really care to add any more. Have fun on your high horses. Hope you don't fall off.




figures. Most, including brty will offer enough to show they know what they are talking about. Some don't, as a consequence you're left feeling that they don't know what they are talking about and in fact have never been successful at it either.

giddy up.


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## tech/a (8 February 2010)

Correlation of as many indicators as you can find is just as futile as coming up with 50 ways of adding two numbers together to make 1000 you still arrive at the same destination PROVIDED you know how to interpret the numbers.
Frankly 2 numbers are sufficient you don't need any more----- if you get my drift 

These guys aren't up themselves they simply KNOW how to profit from the markets and have seen 500 people all similar to you all with the same PERFECT logic.

In my view you have a basis from which to start from but certainly not a profitable theory----YET


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## Ato (8 February 2010)

tech/a said:


> Correlation of as many indicators as you can find is just as futile as coming up with 50 ways of adding two numbers together to make 1000 you still arrive at the same destination PROVIDED you know how to interpret the numbers.
> Frankly 2 numbers are sufficient you don't need any more----- if you get my drift
> 
> These guys aren't up themselves they simply KNOW how to profit from the markets and have seen 500 people all similar to you all with the same PERFECT logic.
> ...




What Tech/a said.


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## brty (8 February 2010)

Riddick,

This was taken from the ASX web site



> No. of Companies and securities listed on ASX
> 
> No. of Listed Companies & LMI's with tradeable equities
> Month 	Domestic 	Foreign 	Total* 	All listed entities**
> Jan-10  1959  	            84  	   2043  	  2180




Out of the total number of 2043 the top 500 make up the all ords index. Probably 95%+ of all trading happens in those stocks.

That leaves over 1500 'other' listed entities. To put $10,000 into each of these much smaller companies would cost you $15m. If you had that amount then this is not going to be the type of strategy one would undertake.
Every year many new issues come into the market, many also get dropped.

Here is a list of the latest inclusions into the ASX....



> APOLLO GAS LIMITED  	AZO  	15/12/2009  	 0.36  	 0.4  	 Add to watchlist
> ASTIVITA RENEWABLES LIMITED 	AIR 	16/12/2009 	0.75 	0.8 	Add to watchlist
> AUSGOLD LIMITED 	AUC 	16/12/2009 	0.235 	0.22 	Add to watchlist
> AUSTRALIA MINERALS AND MINING GROUP LTD 	AKA 	27/01/2010 	0.22 	0.205 	Add to watchlist
> ...




Not very clear, but it shows new companies in the last 2 months, all 23 of them. At that rate = 138 per year or 2760 times you would have to come up with $10,000 over a twenty year period to get your 10,000% ers.



> Originally Posted by Riddick,
> I'm not convinced your strategy of making $$$ in equities encompasses enough ideas, options, study, information, if you tie yourself to a single methodology. Just my opinion.




I don't believe it is possible for any one person to keep abreast of all the info from all the companies out there. The real secret of trading/profitmaking from the markets is to find yourself a niche, one little thing that works for you then keep doing it. It is called 'an edge'. Having the scattergun approach is what usually sends people broke as they don't have enough control and rely on luck.

I've only been trading/investing/speculating in the markets for ~30 years and for over half that time I managed to lose. Eventually I got better, I'm a slow learner.

brty

brty


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## nunthewiser (8 February 2010)

brty said:


> Riddick,
> 
> 
> 
> ...




In a nutshell.

You should write a book and sell it on ASF


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## wbosher (10 February 2010)

Smurf1976 said:


> As I'm sitting here right now, I am also logged into another forum unrelated to investment / trading where someone is somewhat worried about their TV and fridge going off when they turn a tap on. Now, working that one out is something I can do because I have the required knowledge but to most people it would be a complete mystery. It may well be obvious to me what's wrong, but it sure isn't to the person asking - that's why they've asked on a public forum to find out what's going on.
> 
> Manners...





Sorry to go a little off topic here but this really fascinates me. How does turning on a tap affect the TV and fridge?!   I gotta know.


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## SteeleBryant (14 February 2010)

wbosher said:


> Sorry to go a little off topic here but this really fascinates me. How does turning on a tap affect the TV and fridge?!   I gotta know.




Flood the TV? :


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