# Is this the much talked about market correction?



## mick2006 (23 June 2007)

After last night I get the feeling that we are going to head into that much talked about market correction.  

With concerns ongoing about the oil price, rising interest rates, inflation and the US housing market.  We might have reached a point where the market takes that long needed break to refresh.

Over the last couple of months the market has had a couple of short sharp sell downs, only to head higher again.  

But this time I have a feeling that it could last a bit longer.

Don't get me wrong I don't think long term the market will fall apart, but I am making sure I have plenty of cash on hand to pick up any bargains that present themselves over the next couple of weeks.

Would be interested to hear peoples thoughts!!!


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## vishalt (23 June 2007)

Yeah I just have this gut feeling that the next week is gonna be a big down week, I hope its the correction because the market has gone up way too much. 

Would love to see the All Ords settle & consolidate at 5800, would make some attractive buys. (Hello Mr. Tinto)

But then just as easily the Dow could have ANOTHER dead cat bounce !


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## Buster (23 June 2007)

Hey Mick,



mick2006 said:


> After last night I get the feeling that we are going to head into that much talked about market correction.
> 
> With concerns ongoing about the oil price, rising interest rates, inflation and the US housing market.  We might have reached a point where the market takes that long needed break to refresh.
> 
> ...




You could have posted the first three paragraphs every day for the last 18 months..  There are a thousand reasons that the market could move in either direction, but it seems that most analysts/commentators seem to choose the doom and gloom scenario.  I'm no expert even _with_ a serious strech of the imagination, so don't get me wrong.. I just find it odd that the call is rarely up, up and away.

At this time of the year there is generally negative sentiment anyway, as all the movers and shakers sell thier dogs to clean the books up for tax time.. 

Cheers,

Buster.

P.S. It's always good to have some cash set aside for those serious overreactions though..


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## Pommiegranite (23 June 2007)

mick2006 said:


> After last night I get the feeling that we are going to head into that much talked about market correction.
> 
> With concerns ongoing about the oil price, rising interest rates, inflation and the US housing market. We might have reached a point where the market takes that long needed break to refresh.
> 
> ...




So Mick..what do you expect to happen to your undervalued stocks...FNT,POL etc. Thinking of selling???

In my opinion, I can't see a correction affecting these kind of stocks much at all.

Ok,..Friday was a big down day for the DOW...but an undervalued stock is an undervalued stock. I think stocks with P/Es will affected..but those that have no production as yet will hardly be affected.


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## Porper (23 June 2007)

Buster said:


> Hey Mick,
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Good post Buster and I totally agree.The big talked about correction has been coming for the past 2 years and look where we are now.

I got caught trying to short the market last year and the beginning of this, but no more.Trying to predict a rare occurrence (a downtrend of any length) is futile, at least for me.

We may consolidate or go down slightly for a few weeks but what do the squiggly lines tell you all.


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## Broadside (24 June 2007)

Pommiegranite said:


> So Mick..what do you expect to happen to your undervalued stocks...FNT,POL etc. Thinking of selling???
> 
> In my opinion, I can't see a correction affecting these kind of stocks much at all.
> 
> Ok,..Friday was a big down day for the DOW...but an undervalued stock is an undervalued stock. I think stocks with P/Es will affected..but those that have no production as yet will hardly be affected.




If and when there is a real correction - and personally, I think it won't be for a while yet, then apparently cheap speccies will be absolutely slaughtered in my opinion.  It will be blue chip that will be first to recover, some speccies will take a long time.  We had a minor correction May/June last year and small caps were hit a lot harder in % terms than the top 100.  Small cap stocks can stay undervalued for years in a bear market, the capital dries up, not so easy to fund drilling, feasibility and mine.  It might be a good opportunity to accumulate for long termers, but it will be much harder for daytraders.


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## bean (24 June 2007)

Friday's market in the US a down day but lets look at a few things
VOLUME was HUGE  
The up and down volume was greater than 27 Feb when the market moved down  The Nasdaq dropped 100 points on that date

The down volume on friday in the Nasdaq was nearly as big as the 27 Feb
On the NSYE the down volume was the biggest since the 13th March.

If is not in a bear market its not to far from it.
And it will be a world wide bear.

Undervalued stocks don't mean anything to a bear
And the bear will be in commodities as well so those undervalued stocks may drop more than you think


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## nizar (24 June 2007)

Porper said:


> Good post Buster and I totally agree.The big talked about correction has been coming for the past 2 years and look where we are now.
> 
> I got caught trying to short the market last year and the beginning of this, but no more.*Trying to predict a rare occurrence (a downtrend of any length) is futile, at least for me.*
> 
> We may consolidate or go down slightly for a few weeks but what do the squiggly lines tell you all.




Since when was a downtrend a rare occurence.
Iv read in sveral instances that markets are only strongly trending 20% of the time, the rest is sideways.
Not sure if thats a entirely accurate statement but im sure i can pretty safely say that a downtrending market is not "rare". Look at 2000-2003 for the All Ords.

Also note that chart you should DOW against XAO starts around 2006.
Have a look at the correlation during 2005.

We returned from memory i think 18% the DOW 0% for the calendar year.


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## wayneL (25 June 2007)

bean said:


> If is not in a bear market its not to far from it.



Bear?

Oh this is nowhere near a bear. This is just a few semiconscious grumbles and stirrings from deep inside the hibernation cave. When the bear wakes up for real it will be FUGLY.

We are an long, long, LONG way from even plain old ugly yet.


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## Porper (25 June 2007)

nizar said:


> Since when was a downtrend a rare occurence.
> .




Well, that depends on your time frame.If you are a long term investor then a medium /short term downtrend wont affect you that much.

If you trade with a time frame of a few days / weeks then either you have to be almost physycic to trade short with the few tiny corrections we've had the past few years or be very lucky.

The point I was trying to make was that the hype around the next so called "crash" that everyone is predicting would have made you poor if you had been calling it and having a load of short positions.Even taking money out of the market for the same reason would make your blood boil watching the market surge upwards.

No doubt about it, at some point most of us will get caught out but hopefully we'll have all made so much money by then what will a 30% drop mean ?


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