# ALL - Aristocrat Leisure



## GreatPig (24 August 2004)

Aristocrat Leisure has jumped up this morning. Currently Yahoo is showing it as up 71 cents, or about 13%.

It was going nicely for me already, but this is a surprise bonus if it can hold the gain .

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig (24 August 2004)

It's now up by more than 20%. Can it hold the price at the end of the day?

GP


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## keepitreal (24 November 2005)

*Re: ALL jumps up 4% today*

Its charging like a champion..

got some contracts in philipines..

trying to tap into the china market.. if it secures that some big profits,. they would love poker machines.

great technicals.. 

lots of good write ups in the media and have been picked as a great long term stock.


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## GreatPig (22 August 2006)

What happened here?

Wasn't very pretty on my call warrant. Probably should have sold it yesterday I guess.

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig (31 August 2006)

Now, just to add salt to the wound, after selling the warrant at a significant loss, the price has recovered and just touched $13 today.

Seems to be the story of my life of late... 

GP


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## imaginator (18 October 2006)

anyone shorting ALL now?
It went from 14 down to 13.74 in just a few days. When All Ords up, it still got stuck around 13.9, with more tendency of falling down sharply.


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## swingstar (18 October 2006)

The larger scale trend seems to be up to me, and it's been trading sideways for a few weeks--just a pullback?


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## imaginator (19 October 2006)

swingstar,
thanks, however i think ALL may be in play by someone, as volume is too low. Luckily today I sold at 13.55, having bought at 13.9 few days ago.

do u think it's good time to short ORG (Origin Energy) now? I love ORG for shorting.

Is that a MACD line that u always use for your analysis.


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## swingstar (19 October 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> swingstar,
> thanks, however i think ALL may be in play by someone, as volume is too low. Luckily today I sold at 13.55, having bought at 13.9 few days ago.
> 
> do u think it's good time to short ORG (Origin Energy) now? I love ORG for shorting.
> ...




Not sure about ORG... personally I don't see any trades, but you might with your system. 

I only use one indicator: RSI divergence. It's important to know what it's signifying and when it may be useful if you wish to use it.


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## imaginator (1 November 2006)

why did ALL went up today? volume is so low less than 200,000. I think some bastards inside are playing it. Maybe its a good time to short it down!


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## stockpile (26 April 2007)

Came across this article this morning, fantastic honours for Aristocrat could further enhance companies reputation.



> Aristocrat Scores Three Top 20 Wins in Casino Journal's Annual Top 20 Most Innovative Technologies Review
> 
> Company Honored for DL Technology(TM), OASIS(TM) FloorLogix(TM) and SpeedMedia Director
> 
> ...


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## imaginator (27 August 2007)

Hi all

Aristocrat looks like to be in a downtrend. Does anyone know why?

Even when they reported a profit increase last week the stock went from 13.55 down to 12.7 in 1 day.

Whats happening? How much do you think the stock is worth?


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## reece55 (2 September 2007)

Potential change of trend here (and I stress only potential!!!).....

Nice close, cross of MACD after nice high volume, ADX now positive......

The report was quite good, 20% EPS growth for the half year, these guys are cash machines...... However, their valuation is always relatively high, which is typical of the industry..

They will be a little constrained to buy back capital however - In accordance with Corporations act, I didn't think you could buy back your own shares if you don't have any share capital left on your books - share capital for ALL at present is a piddly 1.2 Mil - these guys are one of the best managers of capital going around...

Cheers
Reece


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## Sean K (2 September 2007)

reece55 said:


> Potential change of trend here (and I stress only potential!!!).....
> 
> Nice close, cross of MACD after nice high volume, ADX now positive......
> 
> ...



Thanks Reece. Looks pretty good to me too chart wise. 

The 'ethical kennas' has never seriously considered them to my financial detriment perhaps. On the scale of ethical investments I put them up there with tobacco companies. Or, maybe I'm just being politically correct.


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## Ken (23 October 2007)

ALL -

I am thinking 2 things here!

Where is the bottom for ALL?

What are the dividends?


Now, from where I sit ALL is a top 50 company. So we are not talking up a your centre bet down on the corner.

This is a billion dollar company $5 billion approx.

My theory is this must be seen as a long term buying opportunity, just like MBL, and BNB where when they tanked over the credit crunch.

ALL is still going to be making big profits, paying dividends etc.

The question is what price to enter at.  I think anything under $11.00 is good value as the fundamentals stack up.

If we see anything under $10 we are wiping off growth from 2004/2005.

MOST IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE -

ALL is effected by currency so a poor US $$$ is not good for this company.

However, the company is still expecting 20% growth per annum.

I would put this on the watch list.

This was a $17 stock now $10.70. The last blue chip stock to lose such ground was Rinker, and we all know what happened to Rinker.

I would be happy for PBL to come in buy ALL for $14, and I would say thats very possible.

MY experience tells me that listed stocks in the top 50 become takeover targets if they fall on fear.

Lets wait and see.

I hold  as of 2 day.


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## reece55 (23 October 2007)

Ken said:


> ALL -
> 
> I am thinking 2 things here!
> 
> ...




Ken
I would suggest you re-read the financial release - the revised outlook is 10% growth on a like for like basis (i.e. in local exchange dollars), so FX adjusted financial's could come in under this.

It was potentially looking good (T/A wise) a little while ago, but the recovery was short lived.

My opinion - if it's growing at 10% like for like and is experiencing difficult trading conditions, then even at $11 the valuation is high - don't go picking bottoms, this is a good Company with great long term prospects, but I would wait a little bit before getting on this one, there has been a fair bit of damge from a technical point of view....

All the best....
Reece


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## Ken (23 October 2007)

Hmm good advice.

I did some further research and have noted that this stock was below $1.00 in 2004.

So its up over 1000%  in 3 years.


Does that make me uncomfortable holding... a little.

Picking bottoms is dangerous.

Thanks for the advice will take it on board.


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## reece55 (29 March 2008)

Been a while since anyone has had a look at this sleeping giant......

T/A- Nice rebuilding price action, with bottom forming at about 8.80. We are now starting to see longish term divergence on MACD and ADX in positive. Triangle formation looks like a break should come soon, although Firday's price action wasn't really positive.....

Fundamentals - My base case scenario of 12% growth in perpetuity gives a price target of a bit over 12.00, about 30% more than current prices. Worst case scenario of 8% gives a valuation of 8.30 ish and best case of 18% growth at over $20. Like most largish stocks at the moment, it appears the market is erring on the cautious side.

Personally, a positive break out of the triangle would tempt me into a position, with a target of a bit under $13, which would appear to be the first resistance point after the breakdown in October 07. Logical stop would be a bit under 8.80.

Cheers


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## blinkau (29 March 2008)

I just jumped on board ALL on Friday actually with at a price of $9.80. Im comforted by the fact when I go out to the pub with mates and they all jump on the pokies hopefully a little of that should come back to me. They are trading on a decent yield at the moment as well and its always helpful to have a casino/gambling stock in the portfolio. I hope the TA is correct would be nice to finally profit on a stock in this market


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## mickqld (30 March 2008)

blinkau said:


> I just jumped on board ALL on Friday actually with at a price of $9.80. Im comforted by the fact when I go out to the pub with mates and they all jump on the pokies hopefully a little of that should come back to me. They are trading on a decent yield at the moment as well and its always helpful to have a casino/gambling stock in the portfolio. I hope the TA is correct would be nice to finally profit on a stock in this market




Some advise from someone who works in the gaming indusrty. I spoke to an Aristocrat sales rep last week and he said its been the hardest time lately trying to sell equipment that he had seen in 15 years. With a looming recession or at the very least a downturn the gaming industry will feel the pinch very hard. The saving grace for Aristocrat will be their overseas sales particularly in Asia but whether that will be enough to significantly move up their SP is open to conjecture.


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## reece55 (31 March 2008)

mickqld said:


> Some advise from someone who works in the gaming indusrty. I spoke to an Aristocrat sales rep last week and he said its been the hardest time lately trying to sell equipment that he had seen in 15 years. With a looming recession or at the very least a downturn the gaming industry will feel the pinch very hard. The saving grace for Aristocrat will be their overseas sales particularly in Asia but whether that will be enough to significantly move up their SP is open to conjecture.




Mickqld
Your synopsis of the environment in Aust doesn't surprise me.

However, the market is a forward looking beast, not backwards. To me, that hard time was factored in the Company's share price some 3 - 6 months ago. The fundamentals appear to be factoring in low growth at the moment, certainly the ANALysts have their NPAT growth forecasts at between 6 - 12% per annum which using a DCF would give a valuation of between 9 - 11, depending on assumptions. Obviously the market over and undershoots these levels depending on sentiment. T/A is beginning to support this view, but as I said I would only be taking a position on a positive break of the symmetrical triangle.

Cheers


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## dontknow (10 April 2008)

Not good news for ALL today with the Vic ann. Tatts are cutting capex by $40m pa to 2012. I'd bet Tabcorp do likewise to cash up while the going is good.


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## Plasmo (10 April 2008)

Some inside knowledge on ALL that may not mean much but may mean something - it has the worst work culture of just about anywhere I know, most its employees are 50+ cranky old men and ladies with no motivation to do much of anything and no care to train or develop new staff.  As a result anyone decent they do get in there leaves very quickly.


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## reece55 (19 April 2008)

Well, looks like we received our answer on Aristocrat on Friday - clear break through support now, high volume wide candle closing on the low. With the recent changes in the Victorian gaming duopoly, it seems that both Tatts and Tabcorp will be cutting back on capital expenditure - this obviously will have an impact on ALL....

Cheers


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## reece55 (29 April 2008)

And the slide continues..... Aristocrat now back down to 7.70 after it announced today earnings growth is likely to be about 5%, obviously well under the markets expectation, although hardly surprising if you consider the share price.... This stock is certainly in the dog house now, technicals smashed!

Cheers


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## reece55 (29 April 2008)

Attached is an updated, much more conservative DCF, taking into account flat growth and much lower profit growth assumptions. A bit over an $8.00 valuation here based on the new assumptions,  share price continues to tank...

Cheers


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## TheRage (29 April 2008)

Reece I agree with your commentry. 

My thoughts though are that Vic Gaming changes will have less impact on bottom line than high aussie dollar which does not seem likely to abate.


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## bluecheese101 (4 August 2008)

ALL closed today slightly higher $4.96. Anyone have any thoughts on a buy position? Or will it fall further??


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## AS414 (3 December 2008)

Discussion of their latest announcements re: US market:

http://internationalbs.wordpress.com/2008/12/01/gambling-on-product-adaptation/


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## So_Cynical (1 April 2009)

ALL - Aristocrat seems to have found bottom (so far) as there has been some consistent 
sideways movement for about the last 5 months...has been dipping down the last few days 
since it went ex-div....at 5 year lows now.

Anyway it was the somewhat range bound SP that has attracted me...in today @ 3.38 hoping 
for a run up to the top of the channel over the next few weeks...at these prices would prob be 
a good one for the bottom draw too.


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## dhukka (1 April 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> ALL - Aristocrat seems to have found bottom (so far) as there has been some consistent
> sideways movement for about the last 5 months...has been dipping down the last few days
> since it went ex-div....at 5 year lows now.
> 
> ...




Looks reasonably good value on a fundamental basis. Outlook for the industry not favourable over the next 12 months but Japanese business slowly on the mend, lawsuit has been settled, still throwing off good cashflow albeit much reduced from prior years.


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## skc (15 April 2009)

ALL is approaching a strong resistance at the $4 - $4.1 zone. That level has held it back for almost 6 months, sending the SP back south 5 times. However, the basing pattern has been around long enough, and the recent move has broken the long term down trend.

On fundamental numbers, 2008 full year EPS of 30.5c means a PE just under 14, and yield is around 5%.

Is this a short trade in the making? Probably unwise given the recent strength in the market. Or should the trader buy on break out of the resistance?


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## So_Cynical (15 April 2009)

skc said:


> ALL is approaching a strong resistance at the $4 - $4.1 zone. That level has held it back for almost 6 months, sending the SP back south 5 times.




Top of the channel...i sold the other day, funny how some people are looking for 
a break out and others happy to play the channel...prob will break out now ive 
decided to have an ultra (for me) short term outlook.

My new mantra...always exit with a stop.


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## skc (15 April 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> Top of the channel...i sold the other day, funny how some people are looking for
> a break out and others happy to play the channel...prob will break out now ive
> decided to have an ultra (for me) short term outlook.
> 
> My new mantra...always exit with a stop.




This is quite amusing. Looking at the 6 month time frame I was all ready to short this stock, until I saw your post earlier this month about a longer term view and see the alternate long possibility 

With the short trade you can have the stop at 10c away and possible target at least 50c reward. However, with the long trade, one may have to put their stop at the last swing low so the stop is ~60c away, with a $5.10 target to close that huge gap back in Oct. The reward/risk would only be ~2:1.

I am still leaning towards the short trade, given the strength of the resistance and the lack of volume on the up move, but it will be carefully watched based on intra day action.


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## So_Cynical (15 April 2009)

skc said:


> This is quite amusing. Looking at the 6 month time frame I was all ready to short this stock, until I saw your post earlier this month about a longer term view and see the alternate long possibility
> 
> with the long trade, one may have to put their stop at the last swing low so the stop is ~60c away, with a $5.10 target to close that huge gap back in Oct. The reward/risk would only be ~2:1.




Would be great to be in when ALL makes that break out to get back to that $5+ range...it will happen one day.


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## skc (16 April 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> Would be great to be in when ALL makes that break out to get back to that $5+ range...it will happen one day.




A strong break out to a high of 4.34, well above the resistance zone. But pretty average volume suggests to me just some small puppies playing the breakout? Let's see how this play out.


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## skc (22 April 2009)

Well what do you know. A nice profit downgrade plus capital raising send this share back down to earth. 

The two bars after the initial break out looked bad - I wonder how many break out traders read that correctly and got out in time...


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## andrewcim (23 April 2009)

Well it got me! Another 1.5% loss to add to my capital. Took the risk on the dow entry and it looked good when it closed above the resistance level. Got done within a few days. It'll prob hit the support level and bounce back up knowing my luck.


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## ROE (7 December 2009)

Everyone gave up on this business yet ? Analyst seem pretty negative on 

this one...dying and out of favor and a $200M law suit pending...
you cant seem to get anything good out of this guy

Terrible, Terrible stuff .... 

If only it such a crab business and barrier of entry is low and return on capital is
shocker I walk away too but I cant seem to walk away from this one...demand an all out
closer look and lock and load at the right price with enough margin of safety to keep uncle Warren happy


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## 1q2w3e4r (8 December 2009)

Barriers to entry are somewhat high.  You would need the entrant of a major OS player to make an impact in the market place.   Or you would need a local company operating within the same market via an auxiliary system to decide to either A) manufacture a machine or B) bring to market a machine from OS.  

Len Ainsworth has been running AGT for years since he was tipped out of Aristrocrat and hasn't made a big dint into the market.  The company (Aristocrat) isn't run by people at corporate level with long term experience or exposure to the Poker Machine and Club, Hotel industry, especially in NSW.

Factored with impact competitors new machines gaining popularity along with the fact fewer people like Aristocrat's new games.

The local market is also a mature market with the poker machine cap in place in NSW.  Leaving substantial organic growth to come from OS sources.

Still that's just my 0.02c


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## piggybank (1 October 2013)

Very surprised to see that this thread has been dormant for nearly 3 years - can I assume we have no gamblers amongst us?


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## piggybank (20 March 2014)

Am I the only one who is betting that this goes through the $10 barrier before the end of the year (201X)

​


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## AussieMatt (2 September 2014)

Will be interesting to see how this closes..


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## Redbeard (9 June 2017)

Over $20 now ,,,   time to "cash out"
they may have made massive profits in the last two years but they dont pay great dividends and the word is that they will be looking to expand than payout.


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## BoNeZ (27 June 2017)

Down today. Maybe some profit taking prior to year end.


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## rb250660 (29 June 2017)

I wonder when it will run out of steam.

I hold from 17.200 when it made a bit of a pause in March this year.


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## greggles (28 February 2018)

rb250660 said:


> I wonder when it will run out of steam.




It hasn't run out of steam yet. Aristocrat Leisure has been heading into blue sky territory recently and is looking set to break through $25. What a great chart.


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## greggles (24 April 2018)

The unstoppable Aristocrat Leisure is back at all time highs. Currently at $26.52. Looking at its chart makes me feel slightly ill. Only because I haven't had all my money invested in it since 2011 when it was $2.


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## BoNeZ (3 May 2018)

And on past $27.

The ride will eventually end but it's been a great and so far very profitable journey.


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## greggles (24 May 2018)

Aristocrat Leisure surging this morning after the release of its 2018 Half Year Results. It's had a great run over the last couple of months and looks set to break through $30. Currently up 6.4% to $29.59 so far today.


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## Redbeard (1 June 2018)

looks like someones been fibbing..  ohh holding things back till now


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## bigdog (1 December 2018)

ALL - Another of my 2018 year share tips crashing!

The Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX:ALL) share price hit a seven-month low as shareholders continue to abandon the stock following its disappointing profit result announced yesterday.


The Aristocrat share price tumbled 7.0% to $23.66 at close – making it the second-worst performer on the S&P/ASX 200 (Index:^AXJO) (ASX: XJO) index.

The market was expecting better results

MF reported
In FY 2018 Aristocrat Leisure delivered a 47.7% increase in normalised operating revenue to $3,624.1 million and a 34.3% lift in normalised net profit after tax and before amortisation of acquired intangibles (NPATA) to $729.6 million.

Although this was impressive year on year growth, it was a touch lower than market expectations. According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts were expecting a full year net profit of $750 million and the Bloomberg consensus median estimate stood at $759 million.

Management advised that this result reflected the “strong performance delivered across the Group’s global portfolio, including profit growth of 16% in the Americas land-based business (to US$650m), a 9% lift in profit in the market-leading ANZ business (to $207m) and transformational profit growth of over 170% (to US$331m) in the Digital business, with sustained organic growth supported by acquisitions.”

Profits didn’t grow quite as quickly as its top line this year due to the company experiencing a higher contribution from lower margin Digital social casual games and continued reinvestment in the business through its higher design and development spend.

Regardless of this, the company is still generating significant cash flows. Management advised that normalised for acquisition related significant items, its operating cash flow increased over 23% to $988 million.

*ASX Announcement*
ALL 29/11/2018 8:41:02 AM  FY2018 Results Media Release


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## Redbeard (7 December 2018)

46c on $23 = 2%     Still lousy dividends for a company doing so well.


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## bigdog (21 February 2019)

ASX accounts issued today







The *Aristocrat Leisure Limited* (ASX: ALL) share price is up 4% to $25.59 following the release of a trading update at its annual general meeting. According to the release, the leading gaming technology company is tracking in line with its plans for continued growth in FY 2019. Its Digital segment is expected to be a key driver of this growth.

I hold and was worried first up today


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## bigdog (23 May 2019)

*Aristocrat Leisure half year result.*
The Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX: ALL) share price will be on watch on Thursday when the gaming technology company releases its highly-anticipated half year results. According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, it expects a 51% increase in revenue to $2.1 billion, a 12% lift in EBITA to $617 million, and a 9% rise in NPATA to $394 million.


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## bigdog (23 May 2019)

bigdog said:


> Aristocrat Leisure half year result.
> The Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX: ALL) share price will be on watch on Thursday when the gaming technology company releases its highly-anticipated half year results. According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, it expects a 51% increase in revenue to $2.1 billion, a 12% lift in EBITA to $617 million, and a 9% rise in NPATA to $394 million.



*
Reported today which all exceed Goldman Sachs $ expectations above*
Operating revenue $2,105.3 million
EBITDA                      $766.3 million
NPATA                        $422.3 million

*23/05/2019 9:05:29 AM  2019 Half Year Media Release
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190523/pdf/4459m2mc1qw0yk.pdf



























*


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## bigdog (23 May 2019)

The Market liked todays ASX ANN


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## Trav. (22 February 2020)

ALL popped up during scanning the markets due the last couple of bars showing some weakness but looking at the chart ALL looks strong with a nice run up since late last year, I will be watching for further signs of weakness, but not sure that we will see any here.


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## bigdog (16 March 2020)

ARISTOCRAT and no news!   Perhaps links to casinos and no more than 500 folk gathering

Found this New York news

*Coronavirus Live Updates: C.D.C. Offers New Guidelines, Fed Slashes Rates and Italian Deaths Jump*

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/world/coronavirus-live.html

Article includes:

New York City schools to close. The Fed cuts rates to near-zero.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends no gatherings of 50 or more people in the U.S. for the next eight weeks.

The state of Ohio ordered restaurants and bars to close as of 9 p.m. Sunday, but said it would allow food to be carried out and delivered. Maryland’s governor ordered casinos, racetracks and betting facilities to close “indefinitely.”

Perhaps online gambling will be OK!






384


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## MovingAverage (25 March 2020)

ALL has been seriously smashed big time (like most stocks I guess) off the back of casinos in the US closing. I've picked this stock for the April tipping comp based on the assumption that these super highly leveraged casino businesses in the US will be doing their best to reopen their doors in one form or another ASAP. Even my crystal ball doesn't know what is happening, but my guess it that we will see at the very least the big corporate casinos re-open in April (wishful thinking I know) and once this is news I reckon ALL will see a rebound.


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## Cam019 (23 May 2021)

*ALL *looking nice and strong here. Gapped up Monday morning 5.7% and then has held the gap all week - no gap fill. Nice increase in volume over the last 5 days too, with no signs of selling pressure.


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## finicky (23 May 2021)

Nowhere near as bullish looking but Ainsworth has held a gap from earlier too.


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## Dona Ferentes (5 March 2022)

Aristocrat Leisure, Australia’s largest listed gambling and gaming machine company, is evacuating its 1000 staff in Ukraine as the Russian invasion threatens the stability of Europe’s largest nuclear power station.

Aristocrat, with 7000 employees worldwide, has the largest footprint of any Australian company in Ukraine, equalling staff numbers in Australia.

The company said it has helped 200 people leave Ukraine and 150 move from its largest office in the under-fire-city of Kharkiv to Lviv, a city close to the border with Poland.


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## Erlang (8 March 2022)

I recalled last week, just before that article came out, that I had read Russia's name mentioned in ALL reports and presentations. Then I saw in their last presentation they had a signifiant workforce in the Ukraine. I suppose someone at the AFR recalled too.









						Aristocrat relocates 1000 Ukraine staff as Russian war intensifies
					

The company said it has helped 200 people leave Ukraine and 150 move from its largest office in the under-fire city of Kharkiv.




					www.afr.com


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## Dona Ferentes (8 March 2022)

Erlang said:


> I recalled last week, just before that article came out, that I had read Russia's name mentioned in ALL reports and presentations. Then I saw in their last presentation they had a signifiant workforce in the Ukraine.



And interesting it's not an ASX Ann, doesn't have to be _Market Sensitive _but some PR at the very least. (better than the alternative, of negative news after the fact)


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## peter2 (14 June 2022)

*ALL* is showing improved relative strength in this falling market. 
Both US and ASX markets are making new lows while *ALL* shows only a slight drift down.






The RSC(XAO) over the past 21d has been positive (green) for a while. The 21wk is rising through zero. 

_Disclosure_: I've bought a small parcel and will add more when price trades > 36.


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