# ARB - ARB Corporation



## Redwing (27 August 2004)

Hi Guy's i've also been looking at ARP or ARB Corp, they're in an upward trend  however i'm not sure whether they'll push through the 3.60 barrier..

Has anyone else been looking at ARP?

REDWING


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## GreatPig (27 August 2004)

*Re: Arp*

Redwing,

To me, it looks like it's currently forming an ascending triangle. Typically this is a positive sign, but I'd be waiting to see it break out first before considering buying.

But that's just me, and not any sort of recommendation.

Also, the volume seems to be rather erratic, but mostly quite low. It may not be an easy stock to move in any quantity.

Cheers,
GP


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## Redwing (28 August 2004)

*Re: Arp*

Thanks GP..

Your a legend for posting the chartsfor me..

$3.70 is thier high for 12months..However, i think it's a quality stock.


had a look at my Watchlist (wishlist?) after fridays trading and everything was moving upward...is the market in general moving up ? will be interesting..

REDWING


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## GreatPig (28 August 2004)

*Re: Arp*

Redwing,

Well it has broken out up-side now, but on very low volume.

Be interesting to see where it goes.

Cheers,
GP


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## jkool (14 January 2007)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*

ARB Corp is another great aussie success in my opinion however there does not seem to be much interest in this stock here (ie. considered untradeable?)

ARB produces some fine accessories for 4WD and is rewarding its investors with an excellent return last few years. 

On the downside its operating in very volatile automotive market where oil prices and global environmental concerns may lead to severe profit decreases. 

So far however ARP seems to be steering strongly through troubled times and once again I have put together a little analysis of its FY2006 results. You can check it out here http://sog.shopinthemall.com/2007/01/14/australia-arb-corporation-limited/ and let me know if you find it usefull.

Cheers
jkool


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## TheRage (15 January 2007)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*

JKool,

I have been interested in this share for some time but one thing that I have never been able to work out is why ARB share price went from $15 in 2002 right down to $2 in a very short time. Was this a demerger? I have gone back through fundamentals and relative PE doesn't seem to support such a high Share price at $15. What am I missing.

Cheers
Ryan


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## jkool (16 January 2007)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*

TheRage,

As I normally dont look at charts as much on your suggestion I was gonna look at 2002 more closely to perhaps link an event to the price slide. However I can't really see any such price drop on the graphs at all. This is what Im looking at:

Hope this works I dont have much experience putting up graphs in here.

Cheers
jkool
sog.shopinthemall.com


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## TheRage (17 January 2007)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*

Thanks Jkool,

It's clear to me that I need to get better price data. I chart using Yahoo and this is where I made my mistake. I had a feeling the chart was wrong but now you confirmed it.

Cheers
Ryan


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## ubtheboss (11 November 2010)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*

I wonder if those guys who posted back in '04 and '07 held on to their ARP?  Not many people have that kind of patience but you'd be lovin it if you did!  

ARP has continued to be a great company.

- ROE around 31%
- increasing sales
- increasing revenues
- increasing cash flows for the last 4 years
- a dividend stability of over 92%
- trading at only about x4.6 BV
- has an intrinsic value for 2011 of about $8.20-$8.50 (with 11% margin of safety)

It's been on a great and steady upward trend for months now.  Had a little retrace recently but found support.

It does rely on 25% of its revenues from the export market which is now more expensive with the Aussie dollar but that is largely offset by the decrease in import costs of materials.

My 2012 IV is around $9 and 2013 is around $10.50.  At $7.08 today that's a great long term value investment


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## tigerboi (29 May 2012)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation happily flying under the radar*

i like this stock as it doesnt get alot of attention however it is very well run & i know

that roger montgomery buys into it.

type of stock you could park a large amount into & make good dollars as it only has about

70 m shares...tb


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## ROE (29 May 2012)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*

oh I do know a lot, you cant fault the management of this stock..conservative, look after shareholder with good return and ditch out special dividend every so often when it flood with cash...

Stock don't get much discussion when things chucking a long nicely like ARB Corp, Dominos Pizza and Flight Centre 

many of the stocks I own I never write much about..


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## reeftip (30 May 2012)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*



ROE said:


> oh I do know a lot, you cant fault the management of this stock..conservative, look after shareholder with good return and ditch out special dividend every so often when it flood with cash...
> 
> Stock don't get much discussion when things chucking a long nicely like ARB Corp, Dominos Pizza and Flight Centre
> 
> many of the stocks I own I never write much about..




I agree totally. ARB is a top company that takes care of its shareholders.


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## Ves (30 May 2012)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*

Always looked pricey to me.  Which most solid businesses are I suppose. Any idea what effect the slowing commodity cycle will have on their earnings and growth?


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## ROE (30 May 2012)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*



Ves said:


> Always looked pricey to me.  Which most solid businesses are I suppose. Any idea what effect the slowing commodity cycle will have on their earnings and growth?




not if you bought it during the oil shock in 2006-07 when everyone predicting oil going to $200 a barrel and the end of 4 wheel drive


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## Klogg (30 May 2012)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*



ROE said:


> not if you bought it during the oil shock in 2006-07 when everyone predicting oil going to $200 a barrel and the end of 4 wheel drive




This one is on my wishlist - much like Ves, I think it's a little expensive... Just waiting for the right price.

Nice timing ROE


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## ROE (30 May 2012)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*

I agree it's look expensive at the current price so is Domino's etc..

To get stuff cheap you have to stick to your conviction and willing to go 
against the market and have a long term view.

all my stocks has 3-5 years time frame to deliver the performance
after that I can accept defeat if it doesn't deliver not before then...
Took 2 years before CCP start to perform, CAB took me 2.5 years 
before it start to perform, Telstra 18 months etc...

CKF lot of bad press lately and I bought it a few months ago, this one will get the same time frame
3-5 years...

With the internet and price ticker tick over every second people get itchy when their share price hasn't perform after a week or a month after they bought in ... 

Business don't move that fast, it takes time to restructure, create efficiency and fix things up...

Sometimes the market price it better than you but with enough research and 
business knowledge you should have a decent chance saying the market is 
wrong on this occasion.


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## Ves (30 May 2012)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*



ROE said:


> Sometimes the market price it better than you but with enough research and
> business knowledge you should have a decent chance saying the market is
> wrong on this occasion.



 Completely agree.  I don't think there has been a great company in history that hasn't gone through some sort of issue.  Listed companies especially are prone to over-reaction in price.  Time is always on our side. Well said. Watch and wait!


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## tigerboi (30 May 2012)

*Re: ARB hard to fault what the company is doing*

Yes it does look abit pumped but i ask myself this...does it look like going alot lower so 

as to get some fairly cheap??? i dont reckon so.

i was reminded of ARB everynight going into work as the last turn i would make

into riverside drive chipping norton from canterbury road has an ARB on the corner.

like i said its a sneaky where no one talks about,tightly held & keeps performing well.TB


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## VSntchr (2 May 2013)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*

• Mining Industry
– ARB has benefitted from the strong growth in the mining
industry, especially in Australia, over the past 5 years. Recent
expenditure cutbacks across the industry have certainly
reduced demand for our products from this important customer segment.


Question is, how much worse is it going to get in this sector - the mining service companies are reflecting alot more pain than ARB - which has continued to perform well.

The big question is how much exposure does ARB have to this sector as a % of revenue?...

Other than that, it appears to be humming along nicely...


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## DJG (26 June 2013)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*

What's everyone think of this one?
It's delayed EOD data but currently ARB is sitting on 0% change going by ASX. - It was down around -.30% about 30 minutes ago when I checked.
Last two volume bars still appear to have some growing sell off

*click to expand*


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## Serley (10 July 2013)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*



DJG said:


> What's everyone think of this one?
> It's delayed EOD data but currently ARB is sitting on 0% change going by ASX. - It was down around -.30% about 30 minutes ago when I checked.
> Last two volume bars still appear to have some growing sell off
> 
> ...




I have followed them for many years and they have just kept performing despite threats over the years such as "high fuel prices will kill the 4WD market", exchange rate threats, high steel prices etc. VSntchr is right that their key market is the commercial market, particularly mining, rather than traditional 4WD and so the downturn is relevant but history says they will ride it through.  
They are run by the two brothers who founded the company and they are down to earth managers who really know and love their business - just the sort of people I want to be looking after my money. The balance sheet is very healthy with no debt and over $30m in cash - I wonder what they are going to do with that but it won't be anything silly.
While their longer term price graph is very healthy, for some reason they fluctuate more than usual in the short term, presenting good buying opportunities but they can shoot up quickly and so easy to miss out. 
PE is high at around 20 but the stock has earned that rating.


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## finicky (10 July 2013)

*Re: ARP - ARB Corporation*

Couldn't agree more - I'd love to see the commentators saying ARB's best days are behind it or that the wind will be against it for years. Only way I'd ever get some. Quality proven over many years.
Skaffold's valuations are not reliable but I still take notice of their past ratings and ARB has been an 'A' quality stock for 9 of the past 10 years.

If interested, and here is where Skaffold gets dodgy - looking into the future using stale and anonymous analysts' inputs:

Valuations using analyst consensus eps for

FY's 13, 14, 15

$9.68, 10.90, 12.16

Number of analysts 

8, 8, 7

Pretty tight consensus with not much range in estimates especially for FY13 and 14

Trading at a FY15 P/E of 16.3


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## System (10 April 2015)

On April 9th, 2015, ARB Corporation Limited changed its ASX code from ARP to ARB.


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## ukulele (22 May 2015)

Interesting no one is talking about ARB. 

If you held a year ago you'd be well up including the special dividend of $1.00. More recent technical action has seen it break out of a range from just under 13.00 to around 12.10. A bullish candle on the 11th of May and then boom a couple of days later. Looking for a bit of a pullback into the 10 to 20 MA zone in the near term.

Any other thoughts?


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## notting (22 May 2015)

ukulele said:


> Any other thoughts?




Guess were all dyslexic city slickers.

ARP What are they trying to do to me!

It makes more sense now. Not every one was able to attend Howard Coleman's bar mitzvah.

I'd like to know the net worth or Nick Radge Vs Howard. Ultimate Techi vs Extremist (that's supposed to be humor for Fundamentalist.)

ARB? Well, keep on keeping on, I guess.  Did well to keep going when Ausi car manufacturing died. Tss got legs! (let's not worry about self driving Google cars for a decade or two not so many nudge bars needed.)


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## tinhat (22 May 2015)

The recent spike in the price is no doubt due to the budget. They should do well from the small business write-off.


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## greggles (1 May 2018)

ubtheboss said:


> It's been on a great and steady upward trend for months now.




Seven and a half years later and ARB is still roaring along, and hitting new all-time highs today. A fantastic buy and hold stock for the long term.

Did anyone get into this back in 2008 and ride it all the way to $21?


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## kid hustlr (2 May 2018)

Another strong day - up 6%

Edit in hindsight it was there to be taken - for those who can get past the fact it was $3 10 years ago. Be interesting to see if it sells of tomorrow in a similar way to previous spikes up.


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## peter2 (2 May 2018)

Great daily chart for a BO trader. Was very tempted yesterday, but the daily volume is a bit thin. 
Too late for me now.


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## Darc Knight (31 December 2018)

ARB Corporation Limited (ARB) designs, manufactures, distributes and sells four-wheel drive vehicle accessories and light metal engineering works with manufacturing plants in Victoria, Australia and Rayong, Thailand. ARB has a warehouse and sales centre located in Australia, Thailand and USA, as well as distributers in over 100 countries worldwide.
Almost at a 52 week low of $15.38 so possibly a chance of rebound?
PE Ratio - 23.8
EPS ($) -. 0.643
Earnings Yield -. 4.20%
NTA ($) - 3.50
Dividend Yield - 2.42%
DPS ($) - 0.37
Gross Div. Yield - 3.45%
Gross DPS ($) - 0.5285
https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/arb

4WD enthusiasm doesn't seem to be abating here in Aus.


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## galumay (31 December 2018)

I looked again when they fell below $16 - I have had them on my "invincibles" list, expensive, super businesses you look to buy in a market crash. In the end I felt there were some real structural problems with the business and I was not convinced they were fair value let alone cheap at $16


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## Darc Knight (1 January 2019)

ARB dropped by over 2% yesterday while the Index dropped by only .1%. It's ASX ranking went from 202 to 205 as well.


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## barney (1 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> ARB dropped by over 2% yesterday while the Index dropped by only .1%. It's ASX ranking went from 202 to 205 as well.




Certainly been belted up over the last few months …..  Chart is not pretty …. The long term Lows in the low $14 area might get tested.  Below that would start to get a bit ugly.


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## citac (6 February 2019)

ARB have fantastic products but as of the last 24months competitors in 4wd accessories have used China to it's full force against this company.

4wd supa centre even sells canopies now.

Hope this company can fight back in the online space.


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## barney (6 February 2019)

barney said:


> *The long term Lows in the low $14 area might get tested.  Below that would start to get a bit ugly*.




$14.55 got tested but it looks to be Technically stronger now …. not the kind of Stock I follow but Holders should feel a bit more comfortable than a month ago


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## Faramir (22 August 2019)

I did not declare last Nov 2018, I purchased 179 shares at $16.92. Yes I did pay a bit too much. I could have waited roughly 2-3 months and got them under $15. I have been wanting ARB for many years.

Annual Report - it's shorter and simpler to read compared to other AR.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190820/pdf/447mlmjwt5xzb2.pdf
Profit can be read as $57.1 up 12.1% OR up 5.8% (add back underprovisions of taxes I prior years).

It's supposed to be all doom and gloom with anything relating to vehicles. Somehow things are OK from my point of view: am I wrong??

A letter for shareholders:
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190820/pdf/447mrj97381x4p.pdf

Yes, things are tough but management will focus on the long term.


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## galumay (22 August 2019)

No question its been a great business Faramir, I have long looked at it but never found it at a price where I felt there was any margin of safety and so have never bought. Its possibly one of those businesses that I never get a chance to buy under my metrics for investment, but its worth breaking the rules for. I did so with TNE and REH and both have been good investments to date.


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## Trav. (20 October 2019)

Tipping comp pick...

ARB has been trending up since 2009 and has previously reached $23.94 (21/06/2018)

It has recently dipped and looks to be recovering again to continue its upward run. Will it be enough to win the comp ?? probably not but a positive tip will be nice.


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## Trav. (1 November 2019)

Nice start to my day, announcement out for ARB and hopefully will give the SP a kick.

Holding

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191101/pdf/44b5w523rms1q5.pdf


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## barney (1 November 2019)

Trav. said:


> Nice start to my day, announcement out for ARB and hopefully will give the SP a kick.




Been a nice steady rise last couple of weeks.


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## Trav. (1 November 2019)

Not a huge volume day today following the announcement but another step in the right direction


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## barney (1 November 2019)

Trav. said:


> Not a huge volume day today following the announcement but another step in the right direction
> 
> View attachment 98357




That turnover is still up there Trav …. over $6 million

I'd be scared if any of the Stocks I own traded over $6 mill …..  lol 

Chart mumblings below:-


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## Trav. (2 November 2019)

barney said:


> I'd be scared if any of the Stocks I own traded over $6 mill …..  lol




 yes that would be close to 100% of the market cap for some of those "emerging" companies that you follow.


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## ghotib (10 November 2020)

ARB has been on a long and IMO ludicrous run for months, but does anyone have any idea what triggered today's 13% fall in price? 

I've held this for years, including one episode where I sold out and bought back in for very slightly less than I'd sold at. Since then I grit my teeth and hold on through its occasional bursts of volatility. I expect to do that again this time, unless there's a real change in the company or the business. 

Thanks


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## peter2 (10 November 2020)

*ARB* is one of the many that I've missed and it's having a great run if you're a holder. We'll never know for certain why investors sold a little today. It could be that they've taken the opportunity to realise some profit. I could posit that half the adult population were buying online stuff for the house and the other half were buying stuff for their cars and SUVs while being restricted to home. Now that restrictions are easing and there's a vaccine likely, people won't be at home as much. Online sales are anticipated to drop. 

A see a similar fall in SUL (Super Retail Grp) today. KGN (Kogan, and TPW also fell significantly today.


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## galumay (10 November 2020)

Its across the board in all the businesses that were grossly overpriced based on the unit economics in the pandemic. The news of a potential vaccine possibly being closer than previously caused market participants to swing from these into businesses perceived as being beneficiaries of an end to lockdowns and restrictions. Look at SYD.


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## ghotib (10 November 2020)

Thank you people. Looks like a peaceful night's sleep coming up after all 😴


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## Dona Ferentes (12 January 2021)

ARB advises that it _achieved unaudited sales revenue of $284 million for the half year ended 31 December 2020 which represents growth of 21.6% compared with the prior corresponding period.  Based on preliminary, unaudited management accounts, the Company’s profit before tax for the first half is within the range of $70 million to $72 million, inclusive of $9.8 million of non-recurring government benefits. _

_The Company maintains a positive short-term outlook based on a strong customer order book and another record sales month in December 2020._ However, the Company’s* first half performance should not be used as an indicator for the second half of the financial year, for which no guidance can be provided, as it remains far too uncertain to predict in the current economic climate.  *

ARB expects to release its results for the half year ended 31 December 2020 on Tuesday, 16 February 2021.


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## Dona Ferentes (15 July 2021)

*6 months later.. keep text, change numbers....*

ARB advises that it _achieved unaudited sales revenue of $623 million for the financial year ended 30 June 2021 which represents growth of 33.9% compared with the prior year.  Based on preliminary, unaudited management accounts, the Company’s profit before tax for the financial year is within the range of $145 million to $150 million. _

_The Company maintains a positive short-term outlook based on its consistently strong customer order book_*.  *ARB is focused on managing input costs and global supply chain pressures whilst pursuing various market opportunities.  _*The current pandemic and economic conditions remain very uncertain and it is not possible to provide financial or operational guidance beyond the short term*_.

ARB expects to release its results for the financial year ended 30 June 2021 on Tuesday, 17 August 2021.

- _should lift today. $20 a year ago, $30 six months ago, and above $40 now_


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## galumay (15 July 2021)

I was too greedy with this one, looked very hard when it was around $15 2 years ago and just couldn't build enough conviction to take a position. Expensive error of omission!


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## Dona Ferentes (5 October 2021)

Mmm, nice lift off (from AFI )


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## Faramir (5 October 2021)

@Dona Ferentes you have been a share holder since 2010? I feel stupid not buying in late 2014, all of 2015, all of 2016 and was convinced that I missed the boat in 2017. Took a small position (& DRP) in late 2018. Now I feel so dumb being so conservative with my initial purchase. I regret not going in big back. I had no funds during April and May 2020. Was pleasantly shocked to see ARB do so well last year and this year. I feel I should just hold. I see so many utes. So many of my friends have utes.

The same young dumb males who use to work on their commodores and falcons, are older with a bit more cash now - lets put more things on our utes to show off our male (insecurities??) 😂 I am more suited just being a shareholder who drives a corolla.

I can’t predict what the accessories market will be like here, let alone overseas but I do know some people always want extra stuff, extra add ons and can never resist the urge to show off. Plus many of the accessories are very practical too.

So practical, here’s a release about ARB and Ford partnering up on 3 May 2021:
*Ford and ARB Announce Collaboration to Supply Off-Road Accessories for Ranger and Everest*


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02370685-3A566464?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		


Even after ICE utes fade away and electric utes take their place, accessories will still be required. I just don’t have the courage to top up.


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## Greynomad99 (6 October 2021)

ARB has rocketed up since the start of Covid. As a long time member of the 4X4 community (both for pleasure and as an occasional freelance writer of remote travel articles for a national magazine) I can understand this. Lockdown has been a time for many to review their 4X4 gear. Many more have decided if they can't travel overseas then they will do it locally - hence the 12 month wait for a caravan (despite them being built locally). In fact, getting on as we are, my wife bought a van which we've just taken delivery of but had to buy a replacement tow vehicle as the Prado 4X4 we owned wasn't up to the job. If you are well off you can buy a Landcruiser for just shy of $100K but many opt for a new or good used ute for half the price. Mine has what I regard as the minimum options added for remote travel and they set me back over $12,000 - and if planning extreme 4X4 travel without a van then you could easily double that for the extra addons that requires. Now I didn't buy ARB (apart from the canopy) because I know I can get equivalent equipment from places like Ironman more cheaply. However, many older Australians with little touring knowledge but plenty of cash are just going for known names or relying on their dealer - and ARB is the best known name around.
ARB's chart history is pretty much doing little until Covid. Can it continue its rate of share price income? In my book, no, because it has risen too much, too quickly and will need to take a breather soon. The chart shows a rising price channel and price almost always breaks down out of those channels eventually. A trade now would be high risk but price has bounced off the lower price channel boundary to rise back to the top boundary 4 times since March 2020. Now close to that lower boundary, will it do it again? Price looks to be trying to break above ressitance at $48 and should it do that (and history repeats) it will make a potential target of $62.
Price is just above the lower channel boundary and while that boundary isn't a magical line in the sand I wouldn't be suprised to see price test and possibly retest that boundary before moving higher (if it doesn't capitulate and fall out of bed).
High risk but good potential profit if it plays out.
As for ARB's products and profits, my personal feeling is that with borders likely to be opened in the next month or two I'd say product is flying out their doors as cabin fever reaches its zenith. However, once the gates are open I suspect the vast majority of new recreational vehicle users will be on the roads and the level of ARB sales will fall away. One of the reasons why ARB's price has been historically fairly flat is that the products they sell are often good for the vehicles lifetime - ie they never need to be replaced or updated (apart from suspension components). So perhaps not a long term hold?


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## Greynomad99 (6 October 2021)

A postscript to my prior post. I never traded ARB despite my knowledge of the industry. I always felt their rapid growth wasn't in keeping with their historical performance and unsustainable. There have been several buy opportunities but you can't keep in touch with every share on the ASX and perhaps I just never looked at it at the right time. I am sorely tempted (despite the ASX potentially correcting). Perhaps if price breaks above $49.60 to make a higher weekly peak..........


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## Dona Ferentes (6 October 2021)

Faramir said:


> @Dona Ferentes you have been a share holder since 2010?



That graphic is from AFI, a shareholder in ARB, and was among the slides at this week's presentation. As mentioned in the MIR thread, both these Listed investment companies took positions in ARB in 2010.


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## Faramir (6 October 2021)

@Greynomad99 Thank you for your post. It was interesting to hear from your prospective as someone who is very experienced in 4x4. My situation is very different to someone who is considering buying today. Maybe TINA also helped ARB over the past 15 months as well. I know there are many other competitors out there as well but I am much more aware of ARB than other brands. Posts like yours will help protect green eye naive people (like me) from falling in love with a stock. I will continue to think ARB is a great company but I need to hear your point of view. Otherwise I will fall in love and not have an exit plan.


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## Greynomad99 (7 October 2021)

Faramir said:


> @Greynomad99 Thank you for your post. It was interesting to hear from your prospective as someone who is very experienced in 4x4. My situation is very different to someone who is considering buying today. Maybe TINA also helped ARB over the past 15 months as well. I know there are many other competitors out there as well but I am much more aware of ARB than other brands. Posts like yours will help protect green eye naive people (like me) from falling in love with a stock. I will continue to think ARB is a great company but I need to hear your point of view. Otherwise I will fall in love and not have an exit plan.



Not having an exit plan is where most people who dabble in the ASX come unstuck. Many don't have a plan and as markets unwind (as they are now) they , ride the beast into the abyss, hoping price will turn - which it almost always does but often after significant losses. But we're probably all guilty of hanging on too long sometimes. Buying is easy. Selling is really hard.
As for ARB I mentioned previously that it may still have a little further to fall (back to the lower boundary of a price channel), and yesterday it did so to be close enough to that boundary to be considered as there. US market close a bit higher last night and today might see a better outcome for ARB and the market in general if our market recovers after reacting badly yesterday to NZ's interest hike.
Good luck and keep thinking about stop losses.


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## Greynomad99 (7 October 2021)

And yes, ARB did trigger my conditional buy today so game on!


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## Dona Ferentes (12 January 2022)

from a high at start of year nudging $55, ARB had a fall yesterday to be close to $46 after a brokerage house brought out a report of likely margin compression.

*Credit Suisse *reckons ARB will continue to increase its revenue by 4.8 per cent to $621.5 million this financial year, and by 7 per cent to $645.7 million in the 2023 financial year. Its revenue outlook is driven by ARBs strong offshore growth prospects, particularly in the United States.

However, thinner operating margins will lower the bottom line despite that revenue growth. Credit Suisse has revised down its forecasts for ARB net profit after tax (NPAT) by 3.8 per cent for this financial year to $140.4 million and by 13 per cent for 2023 to $135.4 million.

 Analyst Andrew Hodge attributed the last year jump in margins to three factors: ARB's belt tightening around staff and IT spend during COVID19, retail stores contribution and JobKeeper (which he thinks was least important).

He said that in March 2020, before discretionary retailers knew a locked-in population would turn to shopping and before the federal government announced any subsidies, ARB management decided to keep any additional costs out of the business until the revenue future became clear.


> "_So while ARB is already very well managed, we would go further and say that the cost base relative to the revenue for FY21 was so tightly controlled that it is not sustainable,_" Mr Hodge said. "_It is these costs predominately around people and IT that we believe are necessary to the longterm success of the company but will reduce the EBIT margin in FY22, FY23 and outer years._"




Credit Suisse also thinks the margin compression risk will flow into consensus downgrades over the next two years.


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## galumay (12 January 2022)

SDI yesterday as well, we are going to see a raft of these downgrades, margins are getting smashed by the supply chain issues and geographic costs. Interestingly its not a demand side issue that people were scared of, but a supply side one. Its going to be a rough reporting period for many businesses.


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## Dona Ferentes (31 January 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> from a high at start of year nudging $55, ARB had a fall yesterday to be close to $46 after a brokerage house brought out a report of likely margin compression.



after the January tumble, to just above $41 last week, there has been a 10% lift today

_ARB shares are trading higher after it reported its unaudited preliminary results for the first half of financial 2022._

_Sales revenue rose 26.5 per cent to $359 million in six months ended December 31 from the year-earlier period. _
_ARB said it expects pre-tax profit to be between $90 million and $92 million._
_ARB maintained a positive outlook based on its strong customer order book and improved inventory levels, notwithstanding continuing COVID-19 challenges, ongoing delays in new vehicle availability and global economic uncertainty._


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## Dona Ferentes (4 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> after the January tumble, to just above $41 last week, there has been a 10% lift today



The roller coaster continues .... down 11% (and as low as $32.60) on today's Market Update,  after warning solid sales growth was offset by rising costs and the supply chain dislocations that are weighing so heavily on global vehicle sales.

The Company maintains a positive outlook: 
_• Customer order book remains consistently high _
_• Inventory levels increased to buffer against extended lead times 
• Impact of new models, including the Toyota LandCruiser 300 Series and the new Ford Ranger, are yet to flow through 
• Emerging partnerships with major customers _
_• Exciting new products currently under development._

_The Board and management are very focused on mitigating key challenges including staffing shortages (particularly in accessory fitment), operational and material cost pressures, global shortages of new vehicles and continuing disruptions to supply chains and shipping networks._


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## rcw1 (23 August 2022)

Good morning
ARB appears to have dive really well to overcome some supply chain issues and delays in new vehicle imports,  as the company reported $122m net profit in the 2022 financial year, an 8.1 per cent increase on the previous year.

ARB will pay a final dividend of 32 cents per share on October 31, which is below last year's 39 cents per share payment.

ARB SP very dynamic this morning (23/08/22).

Kind regards 
rcw1


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## finicky (10 September 2022)

Just idly noticed that ARB recently got down to what I regard as around fair value - $25 - but has since rallied. Skipped my notice. Could be moving outside its downtrend resistance? Some great results recently but until shown otherwise I'd have to see ROE of slightly under 20% as the median. Grows its BV year after year.

Not Held

Weekly


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