# ADY - Admiralty Resources



## el_ninj0 (21 March 2005)

I'd just like to know peoples thoughts on ADY, seems as though its had a good run lately. Dropped back a bit in the past week or so.


----------



## RichKid (21 March 2005)

*Re: ADY*

Have you seen the breakouts thread? techA posted a chart on it, thought it may be good for starters (unless that's where you saw it, in which case sorry for stating the obvious).


----------



## bailej03 (24 August 2005)

*ADY- multi commodity producer on the up*

Hey all,

I am sure most of you have heard a lot about ADY on other forums but if not this could well be worth a look.

Production of Iron Ore from an existing set of mines in Chile should begin either Sept/Oct/Nov depending on equipment orders. 

Rincon Salar, to begin producing in June 06 before ramping up to major production over the next couple of years.

Will be producing Iron Ore, Lithium chloride, potassium chloride, sodium sulphate and boric acid.

At 12c, appears cheap as chips imho, apparently been sold down by a dodgy holder in Index options. They have just been wound up and now, maybe any runs upwards won't be buried as quickly as they begun. PM for more info if you like.


----------



## bailej03 (24 August 2005)

*Re: ADY*

Imho, getting ready to boom. Index options have been selling this down since May. They brought 34M in May and where of the register in June, but back on for another 12M in July. They haven't been getting these shares cheaply and dumping them, and most likely haven't made a profit out of ADY. They now appear to have been wound up for good:

http://www.search.asic.gov.au/cgi-bin/gns030c?acn=093614558&juris=9&hdtext=ACN&srchsrc=1

With these guys off our back, it may be about time we begin to see a re-rating of ADY. Remember this thing ran to 23c, and bounded big time again to 17c, before Index came on the seen. If these guys are finally out it may be time for some movement without the selldown stopping it short.

Iron Ore should be on-line soon. Initially producing from 3Mt fines stockpiles which should make initial profit margins very nice.

Rincon ramping up from June next year.

Imho, a buy and hold for future production.


----------



## Aden_1 (25 August 2005)

*Re: ADY*

They look the goods. A lot of trading happening right now.
Im buying in. 16,000 shares $0.125 = $2400.00

It's a great opportunity.


----------



## Aden_1 (26 August 2005)

*Re: ADY*

Jumped up before i could get them!
15,000 @ 14.5 purchased this morning!

There is sooo much demand for this stock! After reading their site. And some perspecitves on it.

P/S Growth ratio = 2,743.40
P/B ratio = 12.41


----------



## bailej03 (26 August 2005)

*Re: ADY*

Yeah they do seem to have a great future coming up. Unfourtunately looks like to may have been another pump and dump, this stocks a traders favourite. Anyway, close at 13.5c hopefully just traders getting out over w/e, depth looks weak now, could be back at 12c b4 u know it, but you never know, it could be a different picture Monday morning.


----------



## kerosam (26 August 2005)

*Re: ADY*

why would you think it'll drop?


----------



## bailej03 (27 August 2005)

*Re: ADY*

Well it did get sold down after opening and then climbing to 15c. Could just be traders getting out over w/e. Fundamentally, I like the story and think once we are producing Iron Ore, price should probably be above 20c. Question is when that market will rate ADY and stop thinking its a risky venture. I had been in ADY for a while, and looking back at the trading history suggests its another pump and dump. Maybe with Index options gone and offshore buying rumoured, there is a re-rating in progress. See what Monday brings.


----------



## Aden_1 (29 August 2005)

*Re: ADY*

HEy bailej03,

Id love any extra info you have on these guys!
I was a bit upset i got them at 0.145 - then they slipped to 0.135

Im looking to buy in some more. Or possibly sell in the next big rise. Then buy back in on a low.... to secure more shares... then hold till they start to mine.

Whats the go with the report on their site about their POTENTIAL value  sitting at.... $1.73 per share...

Thanks mate..


----------



## Aden_1 (29 August 2005)

*Re: ADY*

What happens when millions of shares are wanting to be purchased... BUT only half as many want to sell!!!!!


----------



## bailej03 (29 August 2005)

*Re: ADY*

Manipulation mate!!! The bastards play ADY like a fiddle. I try and go with them when I am in front of the puter but generally just get your hopes on for nothing. One day though, it will smash through 15-16c and then keep going as the market over-reactions al la March. Unless good news is one the way, then its probably best to wait for the inevitable re-trace. Last news was not meet by a rise suggesting management now remains very tight lipped, unlike earlier in the year when it ran very hard!

Imho, a very good share to have a piece of.

I wouldn't read much into that $1.73 valuation. A bit of a long shot and from what I have heard, it did much more damage than good. A one of their presentations the methods used where criticised for which management had no very much to say in their defence. Anyway, that’s beyond us now!

Iron Ore for between 1.5-3Mt p/a will begin ramping up to production anytime now from Sep - October. Lets hope the plant arrives tomorrow! Contract in place and Phil said he would be trying to maximise value by selling on the spot market when and where possible.

A few good sites to look at, hopefully Joe doesn't mind:

www.topstocks.com.au - Phil Thomas, MD, under 'CEO Spotlight' uncovering a lot of good information.

Some good research also done on SS.

Rincon should be producing this time next year and has contracts in place for minor products. Lithium contracts have been rumoured to be around the corner.

Hope this helps your decision. If I were in your shoes, I pick up a few at these prices just in case, but what for it to drop eventually on no news. 

Cheers

James


----------



## bailej03 (29 August 2005)

*Re: ADY*

Check this out Aden, first research report on ADY:

Base valuation 48c, 12 month target 25c!!

http://www.mpsecurities.com.au/pubs/index.asp?page=2005


----------



## Aden_1 (30 August 2005)

*Re: ADY*

Thanks for that!! Very much appreciated! A really great read!

I bought in at 14.5 cents last week...
As it was going up each day! i just jumped on in! silly me!

But, i now have 15,000 shares. so im happy.
Its still trading right on 14.5 cents.

I just ask my self whether its worth buing more!?


----------



## bailej03 (30 August 2005)

*Re: ADY*

Of course its worth buying more!, question is wheter or not the price is right. Strong buying today, particularly when they could have easily let it slip to 13.5c and accumulate some more. Who knows, good manipulation or somebody looking to get in. If we sustain 14c for a few more days then imho, sp will probably break out with a bit of good buying (mainpulation??) 20c at least. 

Good to see you got onboard anyway. Let's hope she lives up to her potential.


----------



## Aden_1 (1 September 2005)

*Re: ADY*

Oh.. she will!!
Lithium is the next big thing. and they have plenty of that to mine!!

Hmm...
Hopefully i can round up another 2k investment before it gets too high!


----------



## bailej03 (1 September 2005)

*Re: ADY*

Yeah its looking better. News in the wings??

MTM converting another 25M should ensure no immediate cash flow issues. Hopefully if they intend to offload, they have some other willing buyers lined up and won't dump on market - wouldn't expect it, they are certainly longer term considering they took no profits above 20c.

Potenital announcements driving the northward move?

September could see:

-Iron Ore Plant delievered

-JORC completed for Japenesa properties

-Lithium uptake???

-Evaluation/Purchase of surrounding properties?

Good times ahead imho, 14.5c looks rock solid. I don't think traders bother playing things this long, they'd be in and out like the past. This looks like it, a realisation of the potential of ADY!

Good Luck Holders


----------



## bailej03 (14 September 2005)

*Re: ADY*

Well ADY powering ahead today. Anybody else got onboard?

No News yet, but holding up nicely and once the ADRs commence around the 26th, we should see good support for ADY and very limited downside. If it retraces back to 16c on no news then its an excellent buying oppurtunity imho.


----------



## brisvegas (27 December 2005)

*Re: ADY*

*ADY * is at an interesting level now with the downside trend appearing to have ended . couple good announcements this month have been met with selling into the buyers , i suspect this is due to overhang from recent placement to financiers to meet interest obligations , unfortunately ADY issued the shares at a substansial discount to market price . once this overhang is through we could see advance to recent highs . i'm thinking maybe half through so far . chart looks better in recent weeks with the downtrend breached . small gap to fill at 10.5c . nice support confirmed at april lows 9cents ish .


----------



## brisvegas (27 December 2005)

*Re: ADY*

seems listing in US wont hurt either


----------



## brisvegas (17 January 2006)

*Re: ADY*



			
				brisvegas said:
			
		

> *ADY * is at an interesting level now with the downside trend appearing to have ended . couple good announcements this month have been met with selling into the buyers , i suspect this is due to overhang from recent placement to financiers to meet interest obligations , unfortunately ADY issued the shares at a substansial discount to market price . once this overhang is through we could see advance to recent highs . i'm thinking maybe half through so far . chart looks better in recent weeks with the downtrend breached . small gap to fill at 10.5c . nice support confirmed at april lows 9cents ish .




going by volumes id say overhang pretty well through , taken position in anticipation of selling to dissipate . 

................. pete


----------



## brisvegas (25 January 2006)

*Re: ADY*



			
				brisvegas said:
			
		

> seems listing in US wont hurt either




Roasdshow in US next week . couple large buys today , starting to get traction . next week may be good

presentation links in this ASX link

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...ameSearchType=D&releasedDuringCode=W&x=25&y=7


.............. pete


----------



## stockmeister (15 July 2006)

*Re: ADY - Time to get on board*

Anybody here been watching ADY?

Production of iron ore has just commenced. Currently producing 25K tonnes per month. This is to increase to 125K tonnes in the next couple of months (once the processing plant comes online) which will provide some very nice cashflow.

IMO at current price of 9.5c ADY is very undervalued. Downside risk has been mitigated now that production has commenced. 
This stock is due for a re rating very shortly


----------



## markrmau (15 July 2006)

Shipment to the cement maker is good. (Cement clinker 2-3% Fe ore), but still would like to see iron ore for steel making.

When we finally see shiment o/s of iron ore, 10c ady will be just a memory.

Also with crude possibly moving upwards from 70$, hybrid / electric cars will be focussed on. Then the rechargeable battery market will really rocket (Li, K)


----------



## barney (7 September 2006)

CFO just bought $70 odd thousand worth of shares. That would indicate???? This stock is way undervalued. Chart is a bit ugly at the moment, but next couple of weeks will be very interesting. ADY maybe not as "exciting" as some other stocks, but this will be a buy opportunity very soon. Been watching closely for a while now; big boys have been playing the stock down......wont be long..........keep it in your black book


----------



## rub92me (26 October 2006)

Spotted by barney as a possible breakout. Volume again today, market maybe expecting they are close to a sales contract?


----------



## watsonc (29 October 2006)

Production due to commence soon. Looking at the chart, the stock is consolidating. Should see it only go up from here!


----------



## rub92me (17 November 2006)

Two interesting announcements the last couple of days.

1) Contract negotiations for take off of iron ore with customers in final stages, due to complete in next 3-4 weeks.
2) Testing on Rincon Salar indicates that quote: "A new JORC study of reserves will be completed now that the porosity is known to be more than three times higher than previously estimated, inferring a much larger resource than previously thought."

Looks like management is finally getting their act together. Interesting times ahead mehopes.   (note: my tip for the competition!)


----------



## rub92me (1 December 2006)

Interesting move by the MD Philip Thomas, who chose to exercise 3.5 million 10 cent options on 28 Nov, when the share was trading for 9.3-9.5 cents, meaning he was out of pocket by $21,000. In the past the directors have been a bit generous with giving themselves options, so for me as a shareholder this restores some confidence in their credibility.


----------



## bvbfan (1 December 2006)

Certainly that sort of purchase on the market would have not been possible under 10c and brokerage costs too


----------



## rub92me (1 December 2006)

bvbfan said:
			
		

> Certainly that sort of purchase on the market would have not been possible under 10c and brokerage costs too



That's some expensive broker you have!   Could have easily be done spread out over a week with parcels of 250,000, estimated brokerage costs of $300 for me...


----------



## rub92me (3 January 2007)

Massive buy orders in pre-open, suggesting that this will open over 10 cents today. Something brewing here?


----------



## rub92me (4 January 2007)

Looks like it will gap up again today at 11 cents. Still enormous resistance in the 10-12 cent zone, so will probably need > 50 million shares traded today to get it through there. 3 positive announcements in a row; if it doesn't happen now, it ain't gonna happen in the foreseeable future


----------



## barney (4 January 2007)

rub92me said:
			
		

> Looks like it will gap up again today at 11 cents. Still enormous resistance in the 10-12 cent zone, so will probably need > 50 million shares traded today to get it through there. 3 positive announcements in a row; if it doesn't happen now, it ain't gonna happen in the foreseeable future




Good luck to you "Rubberman"  .... I used to own a lot of ADY till I had to finance all my debts      Its a good Co. with sound management Imo, so hope you make a few dollars,  Barney.


----------



## rub92me (5 January 2007)

Thanks barney. The short-term concern (sufficient cash flow) now seems to be addressed. I'm still not 100% convinced about management; e.g. the timing of the last announcement seemed a bit 'staged' to me, as it was something they knew 3 weeks ago. I bought this with a 3-5 year horizon as I do like the potential of Rincon Salar. Short-term it finally cracked the 12 cent resistance with good volume, so here's hoping it can consolidate above that for a while...


----------



## johnno261 (5 January 2007)

rub92me said:
			
		

> Thanks barney. The short-term concern (sufficient cash flow) now seems to be addressed. I'm still not 100% convinced about management; e.g. the timing of the last announcement seemed a bit 'staged' to me, as it was something they knew 3 weeks ago. I bought this with a 3-5 year horizon as I do like the potential of Rincon Salar. Short-term it finally cracked the 12 cent resistance with good volume, so here's hoping it can consolidate above that for a while...




I accumulated ADY's in the 8's and 9's a few months back and have no intentions of selling with roughly a 80% profit. Why? On many occassions I have conversed with PT in at 200 Queen St, whether in the lifts or in the foyer and he always appears to be a heads down bum up type of man. Todays ann. in relation to the reliable transportation Contracts signed with HK based company on top of yesterdays announcements regarding the Big Chinese Based Steel Co. now in my opinion give credibilty to my assumption of PT and I know short term, a revaluation on ADY is imminent. My current valuation based on 3.6mtpa as stated in todays financial review article would conservatively value the SP at roughly 35 cents and that is being conservative. However as PT stated in today AFR article, if  5mtpa is obtained well upside from 35 cents is a definite.
DYOR  as I have and you will soon see why this will be rerated shortly!!


----------



## johnno261 (5 January 2007)

*A LITHIUM SUPPLY CRISIS*

www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=27139


----------



## johnno261 (6 January 2007)

johnno261 said:
			
		

> *A LITHIUM SUPPLY CRISIS*
> 
> www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=27139




Here I am getting excited about the Rincon Lithium project, when having just read thru yesterdays article in the financial review about ADY's Iron Ore JV, really that could be a huge play in itself. The JV with Sth American based Cia Minera Sanata Barbara in itself may have all 9  Iron Ore mines up and running by mid this year which could be shipping up to 5mtpa once the new port that the companys has just secured the rights to build from the Chile governement is in operation. The Iron Ore fines are also extremely high qualitys at about 64%, pretty much the same quality as on Koolan Isl.
PT stated that by building the port, it will increase profits by US $46.8 million a year based on the lower assumption of 3.6mtpa.


----------



## johnno261 (7 January 2007)

johnno261 said:
			
		

> Here I am getting excited about the Rincon Lithium project, when having just read thru yesterdays article in the financial review about ADY's Iron Ore JV, really that could be a huge play in itself. The JV with Sth American based Cia Minera Sanata Barbara in itself may have all 9  Iron Ore mines up and running by mid this year which could be shipping up to 5mtpa once the new port that the companys has just secured the rights to build from the Chile governement is in operation. The Iron Ore fines are also extremely high qualitys at about 64%, pretty much the same quality as on Koolan Isl.
> PT stated that by building the port, it will increase profits by US $46.8 million a year based on the lower assumption of 3.6mtpa.




I just did a little research on the freighting company just to tie up and taking into account every detail of the production/supply chain. Company operates a large number of freight ships which specialize in mining industry freighting and the average age of their entire fleet is 5 years, so reliability wont be an issue which is of extreme importance when the big boys can deliver on time and with reliable service.
All looks set for a big week for ADY and a few of my other Iron Ore plays that i believe will shine in 2007,being GBG,MGX,MMX!!
Good luck to everyone!!


----------



## IGO4IT (7 January 2007)

johnno261 said:
			
		

> now in my opinion give credibilty to my assumption of PT and I know short term, a revaluation on ADY is imminent. My current valuation based on 3.6mtpa as stated in todays financial review article would conservatively value the SP at roughly 35 cents and that is being conservative. QUOTE]
> 
> Hi Johnno,
> 
> ...


----------



## johnno261 (7 January 2007)

Yeah that was a FR prediction which to me gives alot of discrepancies, however I do feel that now that PT has delivered also within the near term I feel that the market will start to add speculation into the share price on the basis that Phils delivered on The iron ore so Rincon Salar can be slightly speculated upon. Hope you know where I am coming from?
Cheers
Johnno


----------



## johnno261 (12 January 2007)

*GREAT WEEK OF CONSOLIDATION FOR ADY*

ADY seems to have slightly retraced back to 11.5 with a continued strong move up whilst pushing out the stale bears that have been in this for 2 years whilst stagnant. Perusing a 3 year chart looks as if we are all on the up and up now that Phils Iron Ore Deals have come to fruition and with a steady income which will now help fund the next big phase, being the World Class Lithium "Rincon Salar" project. Consolidation after the quick run up from 9cents to 15.5 was needed.


----------



## rub92me (12 January 2007)

Well, here's the 2 year weekly chart. 3 year is a bit misleading because it doubled in Jan 05 - Feb 05 and then slowly declined from there. It finally turned the corner in the past 2 weeks though and good to see some consolidation around 0.12. I won't get excited until it breaks through 0.20 though, and that will need a lot of volume, because resistance is stacked heavily all the way to that...


----------



## johnno261 (13 January 2007)

rub92me said:
			
		

> Well, here's the 2 year weekly chart. 3 year is a bit misleading because it doubled in Jan 05 - Feb 05 and then slowly declined from there. It finally turned the corner in the past 2 weeks though and good to see some consolidation around 0.12. I won't get excited until it breaks through 0.20 though, and that will need a lot of volume, because resistance is stacked heavily all the way to that...



Dont ever read too much into Market Depth, as in my opinion, "Market Depth is a playground of Manipulation",nothing more nothing less!! 
Great chart RUB92ME!! As stated before,consolidation of the past week has been great for the continued progress over the coming year. One honest thing that i have found with ADY is that its hard to put even a rough estimate/value on Rincon Salar as i feel the upside on the Lithium etc is huge. Has anybody purchased  Lithium Ion battery's for a Sony DVD Cam as I have of recent!! $299 for a tiny little battery that generates enough life for up to 4  continious hours before having to recharge again.!! We must not forget the Lifestyle the Chinese/Indians want which is similiar to us. Mobile Phones,Laptops,Hybrid Cars,Digital Cameras,DVD Cameras,HD Cameras,Golf Buggy's,MP3's, the list goes on and on and all of those products require lithium!! 
DYOR on this stock as I have and you will soon understand the excitement in which people have only just begun to find in ADY!! A stock to watch in 2007 IMO.


----------



## ColdZinc (13 January 2007)

I was a long term "investor" up until late 2006 when i took up "trading" full time. I sold down my investment portfolio in March/April, just a bit early but still thankfully before the May correction. I kept 6 stocks only. ADY was one of them. I'm a believer in their story. They've tested my patience, but I'm holding them.

Of course, I've been wrong before.....


----------



## johnno261 (13 January 2007)

ColdZinc said:
			
		

> I was a long term "investor" up until late 2006 when i took up "trading" full time. I sold down my investment portfolio in March/April, just a bit early but still thankfully before the May correction. I kept 6 stocks only. ADY was one of them. I'm a believer in their story. They've tested my patience, but I'm holding them.
> 
> Of course, I've been wrong before.....




Your faith and patience will be rewarded champ. I was in the run up back 2 years plus back when she went up to 26cents,took a huge profit and ever since have always had it on my watch list. I purchased a huge parcel yesterday because i like the outlook & management are believe me, doing their best and will achieve their ultimate goal which will be bringing Rincon Salar into production and wont management be rewarded in doing so. I know PT has a huge shareholding which is very incouraging!! Well done ColdZinc for holding and believing in something that will be fantastic!!


----------



## rub92me (1 February 2007)

Another excellent announcement this morning, which will boost short term profitabilty for ADY. With the consolidation around 12 cents in the past 3 weeks, the stage is set for a next run. It will take an awful lot of volume to break through though, probably more than 50 million shares in a couple of days. Let's see what the market will do with this announcement...


----------



## rub92me (9 February 2007)

Highest high in 15 months last week @ 13.5 cents with good volume, and after a slight retrace earlier in the week, it finally broke through to 15 cents today with more than 30 million shares traded. Some consolidation again above 13.5 cents next week would be nice to make it the new support  .


----------



## sam76 (9 February 2007)

rub92me said:
			
		

> Highest high in 15 months last week @ 13.5 cents with good volume, and after a slight retrace earlier in the week, it finally broke through to 15 cents today with more than 30 million shares traded. Some consolidation again above 13.5 cents next week would be nice to make it the new support  .




I hope it comes back (just a little bit) as my order at 13.5 never got hit.


----------



## rwkni1 (15 March 2007)

Into zinc now, iron ore shipping looks to be sorted, and rincon salar development is on track. These guys could very soon be generating some serious cash flow. Very impressive.


----------



## rub92me (16 March 2007)

rwkni1 said:
			
		

> Into zinc now, iron ore shipping looks to be sorted, and rincon salar development is on track. These guys could very soon be generating some serious cash flow. Very impressive.



Agreed; if only the shareprice would move up a bit more! Had another promising run yesterday, but fizzled out again today with dumping at the close. Not bad considering overall market conditions in the past couple of weeks I suppose, but I was hoping for more..


----------



## rub92me (4 April 2007)

This didn't drift back too much in the past 2 weeks on low volume and consolidated nicely between 13-14 cents.
Finally on the move again today with a strong close at 15 cents and decent volume. Hope it's not another fake run, like the last one. Big volume day tomorrow pretty please


----------



## bel532 (4 April 2007)

rub92me said:


> This didn't drift back too much in the past 2 weeks on low volume and consolidated nicely between 13-14 cents.
> Finally on the move again today with a strong close at 15 cents and decent volume. Hope it's not another fake run, like the last one. Big volume day tomorrow pretty please





Maybe the market is starting to realise the potential of this stock. I hope I'm right!


----------



## bel532 (4 April 2007)

rub92me said:


> This didn't drift back too much in the past 2 weeks on low volume and consolidated nicely between 13-14 cents.
> Finally on the move again today with a strong close at 15 cents and decent volume. Hope it's not another fake run, like the last one. Big volume day tomorrow pretty please





But why do you think the big buyers at 13.5c (5mill) and 14c (2mill) disappeared AFTER close of trading? Any idea?


----------



## rub92me (4 April 2007)

Lots of posing in the market depth in ADY; it's one of the day trade faves. I look at the actual transactions rather than the market depth 1 or 2 ticks below the price, and _that_ was certainly looking interesting today. Would not be surprised at a gap up tomorrow; not much use if you're not in yet, but nice when you're holding


----------



## rub92me (11 April 2007)

Gained 20% in two days and now up to 18 cents. Potential breakout from long term resistance looks on now (see my post yesterday) if it can hold. Outstanding breakout if it clears 20 cents with volume. Could fizzle out again if volume is not sustained, but failrly optimistic. Touch wood. :bonk:


----------



## bel532 (11 April 2007)

rub92me said:


> Gained 20% in two days and now up to 18 cents. Potential breakout from long term resistance looks on now (see my post yesterday) if it can hold. Outstanding breakout if it clears 20 cents with volume. Could fizzle out again if volume is not sustained, but failrly optimistic. Touch wood. :bonk:




It's all coming together for ADY, at last! It's been a long wait and I hope we all will be justly rewarded.


----------



## rub92me (16 April 2007)

There don't appear to be too many ASF holders of this stock, apart from bel532 and I, so I'll celebrate on my own. First close above 20 cents in over 2 years! :dance: Hope it will last.


----------



## bel532 (16 April 2007)

Im celebrating as well, and I'll keep celebrating as it keeps rising. It's certainly been a long wait.

Am I glad I ignored my broker's advice!


----------



## Sainter (16 April 2007)

FWIW I've built a position over the last 9 months on expectation of imminent cashflow from iron ore and the huge potential of Li. CEO Thomas seems to have his knockers, but I'm not one of them. I'm looking forward to the next few years with ADY  
Cheers!


----------



## Rapide3 (17 April 2007)

I'm delighted to see ADY finally breaking through again, I too enjoyed taking the profits 2 years ago, jumping out at .23. I bought back in at .14 almost 20 months ago and have watched them hover around the .09 for far too long. The past few weeks have been confidence boosting and it's finally looking rosy again. Congrats to those who have stayed with them. 

As an unexperienced investor what's the next move, take the profit or keep holding on for more news on Rincon Salar. Does anyone know what the timeframe is on this project and does anyone have a view on target prices ? Bel, Rub, i'd value your comments.


----------



## ricm (17 April 2007)

Im with you guys, this has put a smile on my face since it broke the 12c barrier a while back  ...but i must admit chart is starting to look a bit toppy to me...with the markets running as they are... I will hold on 4 a little longer... curious to see how far it can run, and whether it hits it long term high of 25c.

Proved now that they can carry through on their deals, but the real proof of their mettle will be when they start to produce both iron ore and most lucratively, lithium.

Good luck to all holders.


----------



## bvbfan (17 April 2007)

I'm still holding some from 12c area, sold some at 20c so average is 4.5c on the rest.
I'm really only interested in the lithium so hoping it will pull back once the iron  ore announcement news dies down.

Still have a few issues/concerns with management


----------



## rub92me (17 April 2007)

Short term, I wouldn't be surprised to see a retrace after having a run of 50% in two weeks. So If you want to take some money off the table now, that is fair enough. I bought this with a 5 year horizon in 2006 and am happy to keep holding. Don't know where the price will be 4 years from now, but long term prospects with Rincon Salar are looking good. Keep your eyes out for a new estimate of Lithium resources. An earlier announcement quite a while back hinted that it could be more than 3 times than originally throught. Now wouldn't that be nice?


----------



## Rapide3 (30 April 2007)

Thanks for your comments and thoughts. 

I've heard some negatives about the management too but as long as the prices keep going up I suppose ethics will take a back-seat. 
Quote: 
"Still have a few issues/concerns with management" _bvbfan_

Anyway, still holding and figure that Rincon Salar will make a sizable difference when it eventuates.

Good luck and keep playing the game.


----------



## rub92me (1 May 2007)

Looks like some serious selling off has finally started now, a bit later than I anticipated. A week or so will tell us where the new support is I suppose. I would be happy with consolidation at 20-22 cents.


----------



## barney (25 June 2007)

rub92me said:


> Looks like some serious selling off has finally started now, a bit later than I anticipated. A week or so will tell us where the new support is I suppose. I would be happy with consolidation at 20-22 cents.




Support ended up at 19.5 cents, but looks to be on the move again. Volume 28 million today already ................... A little bit of green in a sea of red.


----------



## Lachlan6 (25 June 2007)

Just bought in at 23.5. An absolutely cracking chart pattern, will post when Big charts updates itself.


----------



## rub92me (25 June 2007)

It started to turn last week, and good to see the follow through today. ADY only tends to move up with big volumes, and sometimes the volume stops abruptly just when you think it goes for a runner. The next couple of days will be interesting to see if we get a serious attempt to bring down the 25 cents barrier.


----------



## Lachlan6 (25 June 2007)

Yes the reason I bought into this one (have been watching it closely for a while) was due to one of my favourite set ups being triggered today. It has just completed a classic double bottom pattern close to the 38.2% level of support from the Sep 2006 to April of this year's range. In fact it did not even retrace this far, only around 33%, a very bullish signal that this is a very healthy trend. Also this current spurt is being very well supported by volume and the OBV is looking spot on as well, meaning the insto's are in on this one too. Looks as though a Wave 5 has begun and look for much higher levels in this stock IMO.


----------



## sanish (25 June 2007)

Been in this for a LONG time. i.e sub 3c.

True only really moves when all cards line up and the factions agree on timing.

Selldown for OPTIONS conversion appears to be complete so i guess we will see them exercised soon to supply $$$ needed for expansion.

Looking forward to the next 12 months.


----------



## lioness (25 June 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> Yes the reason I bought into this one (have been watching it closely for a while) was due to one of my favourite set ups being triggered today. It has just completed a classic double bottom pattern close to the 38.2% level of support from the Sep 2006 to April of this year's range. In fact it did not even retrace this far, only around 33%, a very bullish signal that this is a very healthy trend. Also this current spurt is being very well supported by volume and the OBV is looking spot on as well, meaning the insto's are in on this one too. Looks as though a Wave 5 has begun and look for much higher levels in this stock IMO.




Hi Lachlan,

Once it breaks its 25.5 previous high what price target can we put on this?

In other words I know it will be in blue sky territory but what prediction can we make???


----------



## Lachlan6 (25 June 2007)

Gday Lioness. It can be a little hard to put targets on these smaller plays and when I purchase some I just trail my stop up and dont really look at a target. This in my opinion is showing a great set up on the chart's however may have a little trouble at 25-25.5 before its next leg up. May only be a few days who knows. In terms of target's looking from a wave extension point of view of the range I mentioned in the above chart, the first target may be around 28-30c, and it may show some resistance around here. Or another target may be the 100% extension of the range giving us around 38c, before it may retrace a little for its next leg up. From there, look at 44 then 49c as possible resistance points. 

Exciting times ahead for (ADY). I placed my initial stop below the recent action at 19c.


----------



## rub92me (26 June 2007)

Looking at the preopen this should gap up at 25 or 25.5 cents. Hopefully plenty of volume to follow today and we'll have a real break on our hands. Wouldn't surprise me if it peters out though, it has done that before as well. Today will tell the story whether we have a real re-rating of ADY.


----------



## barney (26 June 2007)

rub92me said:


> Looking at the preopen this should gap up at 25 or 25.5 cents. Hopefully plenty of volume to follow today and we'll have a real break on our hands. Wouldn't surprise me if it peters out though, it has done that before as well. Today will tell the story whether we have a real re-rating of ADY.




Howdy Rubberman,  It often does peter out, but this run is looking promising.  I know you've been holding for a while, and would agree that this company has some great projects running and some serious potential.  Regardless of where this leg up finishes, I think we will see ADY with some steady increases over the next few months.  Long overdue imo.


----------



## rub92me (26 June 2007)

Disappointing finish on the low of the day of 25.5 cents and below the gap-up at 26 cents. A lot of volume, but hardly any gains made. Lots of daytraders jumping the gun on this today. Probably now needs to fill the gap at 25 cents before it moves any further.


----------



## barney (26 June 2007)

rub92me said:


> Disappointing finish on the low of the day of 25.5 cents and below the gap-up at 26 cents. A lot of volume, but hardly any gains made. Lots of daytraders jumping the gun on this today. Probably now needs to fill the gap at 25 cents before it moves any further.




Agree R, it was a bit disappointing, but then again, the general market pretty much finished lacklustre .................. If it consolidates above the 24.5 cent area in the short term on good volume, I think that will be a good base for the next series of leg ups ............... At the very least, ADY has out performed the market by a long way over the last couple of days, which is a good sign for the future ............... This company has a lot to offer for medium/longer term holders imo.  Time will tell.


----------



## lioness (26 June 2007)

rub92me said:


> Disappointing finish on the low of the day of 25.5 cents and below the gap-up at 26 cents. A lot of volume, but hardly any gains made. Lots of daytraders jumping the gun on this today. Probably now needs to fill the gap at 25 cents before it moves any further.




Yes, spot on rubberdog, it needs to touch 25 to close the gap. It will do this tomorrow and then consolidate for a few days before moving again.


----------



## rub92me (29 June 2007)

Great price action today for ADY - closing near the high of the day at an all time high close price on decent volume. Next week will be interesting: this should attract some more 'breakout traders' now to give it a further boost.


----------



## lioness (29 June 2007)

rub92me said:


> Great price action today for ADY - closing near the high of the day at an all time high close price on decent volume. Next week will be interesting: this should attract some more 'breakout traders' now to give it a further boost.




Rub me

I have a breakout next target of 32.5 before it takes a breather.

Do you think it will retrace back to 26 support??

It is is extreme overbought position on the RSI which may contain it.


----------



## nizar (29 June 2007)

rub92me said:


> Great price action today for ADY - closing near the high of the day at an all time high close price on decent volume. Next week will be interesting: this should attract some more 'breakout traders' now to give it a further boost.




Yeh like me.
I'll be buying the opening price on Monday.

Looks like a goer to me. Look at the 5yr daily chart.


----------



## rub92me (3 July 2007)

Bit of a false start yesterday with a quick jump up and then a dump of about 2 million shares at 28 cents just when it started to take off, which completely took the wind out of it. Buyers lining up again this morning, so looks like it will start with another gap up today. Let's hope the big players hold their sell bids a bit longer today...


----------



## barney (6 July 2007)

Chart on ADY suggests the consolidation period might be ready for another leg up ................ About 5 million share traded already today, and a lot of buyers happy to jump the queue to buy at the higher price ............. Should be interesting over the next couple of days.


----------



## j4mesa (6 July 2007)

yes it is good to see that the consolidation does not breach the support,which i think  around 24.5-25 c mark. Also it stays the 26-28 mark this couple of days.....


----------



## barney (11 July 2007)

nizar said:


> Yeh like me.
> I'll be buying the opening price on Monday.
> 
> Looks like a goer to me. Look at the 5yr daily chart.




Hope you ended up getting on this one N............  

Certainly been going gangbusters .......... Great long term story unfolding with this one (as well as being a good trading stock) .......... When the Lithium finally comes on stream, todays sp could seem very good value imo ........


----------



## nizar (11 July 2007)

barney said:


> Hope you ended up getting on this one N............
> 
> Certainly been going gangbusters .......... Great long term story unfolding with this one (as well as being a good trading stock) .......... When the Lithium finally comes on stream, todays sp could seem very good value imo ........




Hi Barney.

Yes i did buy on the monday paid .285 for them so was sitting in the red for a bit.

But these longterm bluesky breaks are usually goers for me.
28.5/29 was a bit of resistance so when it closed above it on monday i got the signal to pyramid into this winner at .305 on yesterdays open but didnt do so (capital restraints).

If i can, i will pyramid into this winner as it progresses.

But imminently, i see a pullback on the cards, should find support at 28/29c the previous highs from last week.


----------



## barney (11 July 2007)

nizar said:


> Hi Barney.
> 
> Yes i did buy on the monday paid .285 for them so was sitting in the red for a bit.
> 
> ...




Pleased you got on Niz,............. I agree it should theoretically have a period of consolidation after such a strong run.  It will be interesting how far it does pullback to .......... The fundamentals on this Co. are excellent, and it just seems to be going from strength to strength atm ........... I guess it will depend on how many of the trades going through are from potential longer term holders, and how many are just trading the stock ......... High volumes, so you'd expect a lot of that to be traders ........... then again maybe the traders might realise what they might be sitting on in a couple of years


----------



## sanish (11 July 2007)

Clever of PT to put out a claytons announcement to avoid a speeding ticket

Strong volumes over last few weeks indicates solid distribution to entice new shareholders onboard and establsih new support levels. Of course this has been going on in ADY for several years.

The future and the plan is all falling into place, it is nice to see and does wonders for ones confidence levels going forward.


----------



## rub92me (12 July 2007)

Looks like the pullback is not as 'imminent' as thought. Looking good for another record close today. Very clever 'management' of the announcements again by the MD. The pullback when it comes should hold above 30 cents for a while looking at the volume that has gone through in the past 3 days


----------



## vvguru (13 July 2007)

Great ann in a row, very low phosphorous, which is terrific for Chinese steel makers. We should be able to see it shoot out .45 by today.


----------



## nizar (13 July 2007)

Sitting at extreme overbought, RSI sitting on about 90.
Looks like time for a breather.

The (short term) top is probably in at 45c.


----------



## j4mesa (13 July 2007)

arrgh.....i took profit @ 0.33 ,
I actually put it on the the competition......but took profit too early...........


----------



## Lachlan6 (13 July 2007)

Tend to agree Nizar. I have scaled into this one at 23.5c and then 30c so watching closely. New support will probably come in the form of gap refill support around 39c. Will watch the volume on the retracement very carefully as it needs to be small.


----------



## nizar (13 July 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> Tend to agree Nizar. I have scaled into this one at 23.5c and then 30c so watching closely. New support will probably come in the form of gap refill support around 39c. Will watch the volume on the retracement very carefully as it needs to be small.




Hi Lachlan.

I thought the run was exhausted by Wednesday to be honest so i expected 34.5c the top and retrace to maybe 29-30c.

Obviously thats a bit too much of a pullback now given 45c was the top. So yeh i agree and would suspect it to hold at 38c.

Blow off like today expect large volumes and t+3ers exit, also its a friday, generally a weak day for the market.

But yes if monday tuesday sees red, much lower volumes (sub 10mil) would be bullish.

Im holding since .285. Havent pyramided into it since there have been no pullbacks.


----------



## rub92me (23 July 2007)

Trading halt pending JORC upgrade for Rincon Salar. This is what they said last November: 
"A new JORC study of reserves will be completed now that the porosity is known to be more than three times higher than previously estimated, inferring a much larger resource than previously thought."
Will be interesting to see how much larger!


----------



## Bushman (23 July 2007)

rub92me said:


> Trading halt pending JORC upgrade for Rincon Salar. This is what they said last November:
> "A new JORC study of reserves will be completed now that the porosity is known to be more than three times higher than previously estimated, inferring a much larger resource than previously thought."
> Will be interesting to see how much larger!




Announcement is out - a 5.5 times increase in lithium to 1,403 tonnes. That is a positive announcement if ever I saw one!!


----------



## Quixis (23 July 2007)

j4mesa said:


> arrgh.....i took profit @ 0.33 ,
> .but took profit too early...




You can never take a profit too early. Like you can never pay too much tax. If you follow me.

I'd gladly pay $30 mill tax a year.


----------



## kerosam (23 July 2007)

been kicking myself on this one... sold at $0.14 to buy another 

waiting to get in again.


----------



## Potato381 (23 July 2007)

So did I, I sold at .21 to get into FWL - not a bad choice really but I'm back in and holding..... really wish I had gotten back in when she started running but you live and learn.


----------



## rapidex (23 July 2007)

Yep - me too. Sold at 26.5c - looking for retracement to 20c

In at 11c though, but always the hindsight gets me.

Always another one around the corner though I suppose


----------



## gfresh (23 July 2007)

> This Reserve calculation has increased the size of the deposit, from the previous resource calculation of inferred resources from 253,000 tonnes of lithium to 1,403,000 tonnes, a 5.5 times increase, and an upgrade of the status from an inferred resource to proved and probable reserve. The potash reserve also increased from 2.48 million tonnes (potassium), which is equivalent to 4.728 million tonnes of potash to 50.8 million tonnes. *These reserves will last approximately 400 years* at the current production target of 17,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, chloride and hydroxide per annum.
> 
> The conversion ratio from lithium to lithium carbonate is 5.32, implying a reserve of 7.46 million tonnes of lithium carbonate at $6,000 per tonne (2006 price quoted by Industrial Minerals) with a *historical value of $44.7billion*. The conversion ratio to lithium Chloride from
> lithium metal is 6.12 and for lithium Hydroxide it is 1.49 times.




Correct me if I'm wrong.. however this company has around 560 million shares on offer, now with some $44billion dollars worth of resources (and I'm just looking at their lithium here)... surely any SP below $1 seems silly? Just wondering whether I should buy tomorrow, although I know buying after any announcement often backfires.


----------



## Bushman (23 July 2007)

gfresh said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong.. however this company has around 560 million shares on offer, now with some $44billion dollars worth of resources (and I'm just looking at their lithium here)... surely any SP below $1 seems silly? Just wondering whether I should buy tomorrow, although I know buying after any announcement often backfires.




Having the same dilemma Gfresh. $44b lithium resource based on historical prices plus a substantial iron ore resource - all within a short time to production. I thought I had some time to get a good entry point but I was wrong. Timing and content of the announcement caught me out. Was looking at Rincon and thought it had great potential but I had a few weeks up my sleeve...then bang the ann today and a 50% price hike before I had time to free up funds and take advantage. Oh well cannot win them all. 

Think I will wait a day or so to see what profit takers do to this one and then make an entry. Learnt the hard way with AZS a few weeks back - bought in at 24c, watched the market plummet to 20c the next day, now doing nicely on the rebound. Could do without the heart attack though. However the AZS ann was poor whereas this ann is outstanding. Its all about momentum with some of these shares. IMO this one will run hard as the market wakes up to the massive & profitable lithium resource plus iron ore. So I will attempt to pick my entry point in the next few days with AZS in mind. Then again it will probably race up another 30% tomorrow now that I have said that.

Well done to the long term holders by the way. I have read through this thread over the last month or so and it is great to see your faith rewarded.


----------



## rub92me (23 July 2007)

Well, this has got me stumped. Not that I'm complaining, but I really don't understand why the market liked the announcement so much. They already had enough Lithium for 80 years production. Now they have enough for 400 years. I'm not planning to get that old...


----------



## Bushman (23 July 2007)

rub92me said:


> Well, this has got me stumped. Not that I'm complaining, but I really don't understand why the market liked the announcement so much. They already had enough Lithium for 80 years production. Now they have enough for 400 years. I'm not planning to get that old...




That is a good point...unless they increase their production capability then the increased tonnage is fairly useless. NPV of cashflows 400 years out would be ridiculous. 

I thought the 50% price hike was a bit nuts myself. I am sure they stated in the ADY website pre announcement that they expected to triple the Rincon resource anyway (I could be wrong). When production throughput of lithium increases that should be the real value driver.

But I really liked what I read about this one esp the lithium story so that is why I wish to buy in. Crazy commodities market at the moment though means 'he who hesitates dies'.


----------



## Absolutely (23 July 2007)

Yep it must be the ramping up of production which is driving it. I think I read that they are proposing to double the production rate so that should, over time, re-rate the lithium component of the share price accordingly. However this seems to have occurred in one leap today.

I got in last week at 38c but would hesitate to buy more just now. Will wait and see what happens over the next day or two.


----------



## Sainter (23 July 2007)

gfresh,
Dunno where you pulled that quote from, but the Li hydroxide ratio is wrong. It should be 3.44, not 1.49 or whatever it was. The other two ratios are OK.
Cheers!


----------



## GOSAFAS (24 July 2007)

*Re: ADY*

I'm very conscious that there are approximately 1bn shares including exercisable options on issue - does anyone see this as a major problem?


----------



## gfresh (24 July 2007)

> gfresh,
> Dunno where you pulled that quote from, but the Li hydroxide ratio is wrong. It should be 3.44, not 1.49 or whatever it was. The other two ratios are OK.




Direct from the ASX release page 1? I just copied and pasted, it's possible of course they made a mistake there.

Buyers lined up at the gate this morning already, doubt I'll get in. But good news to existing holders, should be another large upward move today.


----------



## kerosam (24 July 2007)

i rem reading something that ADY have close to 1billion worth of shares & options in another forum too. 

if the shares are running hard at the moment, how about buying some options? anyone had a look at the option prices? just a thought.


----------



## GOSAFAS (24 July 2007)

I don't think those options are listed mate - I think they're in the hands of directors and staff. Wonder where this stock is going?


----------



## rub92me (24 July 2007)

*Re: ADY*



GOSAFAS said:


> I'm very conscious that there are approximately 1bn shares including exercisable options on issue - does anyone see this as a major problem?



Why would that be a problem in itself? As long as the overall market cap is reflective of current and expected revenue and profits it's okay. It does look however at this stage that a lot of the future revenue is now already priced in, but that's not unusual for mining companies. What has happened recently is a re-rating of the stock which was long overdue in my opinion. Fundamentally things will only change for this company through the following:
1) Major increase in annual iron production.
2) Major increase in Lithium production (rather than resource)
3) Further exploration for other minerals.


----------



## gfresh (24 July 2007)

Lot of buyers and sellers meeting around the 58c mark it seems at the moment.. Hopefully this forms a nice support level, to give some stability for the next few days.


----------



## GOSAFAS (24 July 2007)

After a lot of thought, I'm thinking of buying some more - they just look so very cheap at the moment


----------



## MS+Tradesim (24 July 2007)

*Re: ADY*



rub92me said:


> Why would that be a problem in itself? As long as the overall market cap is reflective of current and expected revenue and profits it's okay. It does look however at this stage that a lot of the future revenue is now already priced in, but that's not unusual for mining companies. What has happened recently is a re-rating of the stock which was long overdue in my opinion. Fundamentally things will only change for this company through the following:
> 1) Major increase in annual iron production.
> 2) Major increase in Lithium production (rather than resource)
> 3) Further exploration for other minerals.




I've been accumulating this share for over 2 years and I couldn't disagree more with the statement that the future revenue is already priced in. ADY's joint venture company, Cia Minera Santa Barbara (of which it owns 50%) has over 10,000ha of land prospective for iron ore. Though a complete JORC estimate has not been done (in fact only a hundred odd hectares have been calculated) there is at least 600mt of ore available of >60% Fe after beneficiation. They are planning to be producing over 5mtpa in 2008 and ramping up to over 10mtpa in 2009. Li production is wholly owned by ADY and if on schedule, will begin in Sep 08 and reach full production of 17,000tpa in early 09. I have previously calculated the sp to be about $1.70-1.80 by end of 08 if plans are on time and above $2 in 09.


----------



## rub92me (24 July 2007)

*Re: ADY*



MS+Tradesim said:


> I've been accumulating this share for over 2 years and I couldn't disagree more with the statement that the future revenue is already priced in. ADY's joint venture company, Cia Minera Santa Barbara (of which it owns 50%) has over 10,000ha of land prospective for iron ore. Though a complete JORC estimate has not been done (in fact only a hundred odd hectares have been calculated) there is at least 600mt of ore available of >60% Fe after beneficiation. They are planning to be producing over 5mtpa in 2008 and ramping up to over 10mtpa in 2009. Li production is wholly owned by ADY and if on schedule, will begin in Sep 08 and reach full production of 17,000tpa in early 09. I have previously calculated the sp to be about $1.70-1.80 by end of 08 if plans are on time and above $2 in 09.



I fully agree with the longer term prospects of this company and have no plans of selling a single share for at least another 3 years. 3 years from now, the current price may look very cheap indeed.
I wasn't saying that _all_ of the possible future revenue is already priced in. My statement was that at this stage _a lot of future revenue is already priced in. _ In other words, current revenue does not justify the market cap. They will need another $100 million plus to start producing the Lithium for instance.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (24 July 2007)

Rub, yep I can agree with that. 

I missed the words "a lot" when I read your post so that makes a difference in interpretation. Thanks.


----------



## vvguru (25 July 2007)

Have you guys noticed apple's iphone? if iphone sales really kick up, powerful and computerised mobile phone will become the norm & industry standard, people will have to get used to daily charging the battery and keep one aside for backup.

Also pc makers now heavily shifting to portables as laptops increasingly taking market shares of desktops.

Those are great potentials mate.


----------



## jet328 (25 July 2007)

vvguru said:


> Also pc makers now heavily shifting to portables as laptops increasingly taking market shares of desktops.




Mobiles and laptops are small fry, compared to what would be required for a hybrid/electric vehicle

Cheers


----------



## Absolutely (25 July 2007)

trading halt again.

acquiring more of CMSB and will increase revenue

sounds good and it's a good day not to be trading


----------



## rub92me (25 July 2007)

Absolutely said:


> trading halt again.
> 
> acquiring more of CMSB and will increase revenue
> 
> sounds good and it's a good day not to be trading



Yes, we would have to compliment the MD on the timing of the announcements in the past couple of months. Another shrewd move as well to increase revenue. I wonder what else they have under their sleeves. E.g. I wouldn't be astonished if we see some form of capital raising soon to capitalise on the recent re-rating of the shareprice and to help fund the Lithium production (supplemented by some debt arrangement supported by the iron revenue).


----------



## rwkni1 (25 July 2007)

I'm pretty sure the capex for Rincon Salar (around $110m) is going to be entirely financed through debt. Although some cash may be needed for the Chile port construction which could be an excuse for a raising.


----------



## GOSAFAS (26 July 2007)

I have bought quite a few more of these and MY PURCHASE ASIDE I truly believe that this is dirt cheap at 50c a share. While I dont advise or want to be seen to advise anybody to buy this stock, for me this is a huge opportunity.


----------



## kerosam (26 July 2007)

i m keeping an eye on this one. probably after the 'market noise' clears.

who knows? i might miss the boat...


----------



## EZZA (27 July 2007)

hey guys,

i know the market has been pulling back lately but not sure why ady pulling back so much just after announcemnt of increasing stake of cia minera barbara.   if anything would of thought this would have made the stock out up a little more not so much pullback 10%.  

is 0.50 mark a good entry point, think i'll be trying to pick it up around this level.


----------



## Sean K (27 July 2007)

EZZA said:


> hey guys,
> 
> i know the market has been pulling back lately but not sure why ady pulling back so much just after announcemnt of increasing stake of cia minera barbara.   if anything would of thought this would have made the stock out up a little more not so much pullback 10%.
> 
> is 0.50 mark a good entry point, think i'll be trying to pick it up around this level.



Hi EZZA, welcome aboard.

I'm not sure about the last ann but I was surprised by the pullback after the Rincon Lithium upgrade. $44b in the ground! What the? Must be some skepticism in it perhaps. 

As far as TA goes, this was a good breakout in late June, on vol, and powered on. Some healthy consolidation in mid Jul before woosh! I now have support between 40 and 45, if it does pull back that far. The DOW is off about a million points at the moment, so wouldn't be surprised to see everything take a break tomorrow.


----------



## Caliente (27 July 2007)

Hi excuse my ignorance, but how much is each mtpa per annum production of iron worth?

ADY as I see it have this 60% controlling stake in SantaBarbara to 1.2mtpa and moving up to 3.9mtpa and then towards 7.2mtpa if I've read the announcements correctly.


edit - from the annoucnement... The environmental permits have been issued to mine iron ore from the
tenements Japonesita, Mirador & Primavera and Mariposa areas increasing permitted
production to 3.9m tonnes per annum. In revenue terms at an FOB price of $43 per tonne,
this means the Santa Barbara mines will be capable of producing revenues of $167m per
annum. 

Questions... what does FOB mean? and is the revenue a profit of 167m/annum or total gross revenue?

Cheers
-Cali


----------



## macca (27 July 2007)

FOB usually means the buyer pays the shipping freight, so that price is what the producer get paid at the wharf.

Macca


----------



## Lachlan6 (27 July 2007)

Whole market obviously down quite a bit today. However ADY not performing too badly. Some real value starting to lure investors back. I have posted a chart in what I think may eventuate. We have possible (and in this current market I stress Possible) support starting now at these levels. If not may refill the gap formed earlier this month. Albeit, my stop is placed currently underneath the recent low at $0.36. Notice volume on these down days not as much as when it was marked up a great deal recently. A good sign.


----------



## kerosam (27 July 2007)

got hit today at 43.5cts... so i'm in the game, boys! but still not confident with the massive sell last three days. hope its just a correction... fingers cross.


----------



## EZZA (27 July 2007)

kennas said:


> Hi EZZA, welcome aboard.
> 
> I'm not sure about the last ann but I was surprised by the pullback after the Rincon Lithium upgrade. $44b in the ground! What the? Must be some skepticism in it perhaps.
> 
> As far as TA goes, this was a good breakout in late June, on vol, and powered on. Some healthy consolidation in mid Jul before woosh! I now have support between 40 and 45, if it does pull back that far. The DOW is off about a million points at the moment, so wouldn't be surprised to see everything take a break tomorrow.




Thanks Kennas for your input, saw them dip to 43.5 c and picked them up at 44c today.  bought 4k worth today, already have a fair bit in small caps would've ideally liked to have bought more though.

would be expecting this one to ramp up again, once market sentiment picks up again.  rest of my portfolio got smashed today though, still up overall so no probs here.  how long you intending to hold this one,  or you looking to trade this one.


----------



## vvguru (27 July 2007)

http://crazyjimsmith.blogspot.com/2007/07/admiralty-resources-ady-keeps-falling.html

here is the link to explain the massive sellout. make sense to me. hold your faith.


----------



## countryboy (28 July 2007)

put an order in at 44c late friday that i am going to pull after the sell off on the Dow last night...at this rate i may buy back in below 40c what a bargain !


----------



## u235 (28 July 2007)

my frist post  
any ideas on when will ady recover ? i jumped on after it fall back on 0.545 the day before the halt , thought i'd be sitting on a nice profit by now, oh well lesson learned. but my biggest problem is my cash is tied up some where else
hence that i'm late for the settlement with commsec,im no day trader, other wise i would have paniced and sold my parcel on thursday.it just someting came up and my cash is tid up .i've got to sell it soon or commsec will do it for me anyway ,still not panicing yet ? or should i ? :confused


----------



## gfresh (28 July 2007)

I'd expect some further reasonable falls before it picks up. Will be at 30 "something" next week I am guesstimating. 

While there was some brief support at $0.45, I don't think it will hold monday due to the yesterday's further US drop.. which means the next one is around $0.37. Not sure how strong that one is either really, with lack of volume there. 

My  is it'll settle somewhere 30-35c next week, going on current conditions.


----------



## AussiePaul72 (28 July 2007)

u235 said:


> my frist post
> any ideas on when will ady recover ? i jumped on after it fall back on 0.545 the day before the halt , thought i'd be sitting on a nice profit by now, oh well lesson learned. but my biggest problem is my cash is tied up some where else
> hence that i'm late for the settlement with commsec,im no day trader, other wise i would have paniced and sold my parcel on thursday.it just someting came up and my cash is tid up .i've got to sell it soon or commsec will do it for me anyway ,still not panicing yet ? or should i ? :confused




I know exactly what you are going through U235! I bought in at 0.545 aswell. Not sure what your timeline is but don't panic too much. I think this has got the makings of a great long term stock (fundamentals are very promising), its just giving us some grey hairs while it sorts itself out!! I'm hanging in there for a very simple season .... a company with these fundamentals has to turn around soon and reflect it in the SP


----------



## Sean K (29 July 2007)

EZZA said:


> how long you intending to hold this one,  or you looking to trade this one.



EZZA, not holding and not planning to buy anything till the dust settles. I have been selling and shorted some stocks on Friday. Will probably put a couple more on your Monday, although I wouldn't be surprised with a dead cat in the US on Monday night and then our Tuesday. Just a pluck though, depends on what other scarey news comes out between now and then.


----------



## nizar (29 July 2007)

kennas said:


> EZZA, not holding and not planning to buy anything till the dust settles. I have been selling and shorted some stocks on Friday. Will probably put a couple more on your Monday, although I wouldn't be surprised with a dead cat in the US on Monday night and then our Tuesday. Just a pluck though, depends on what other scarey news comes out between now and then.




In all honesty i (and several others) expected the dead cat bounce on friday night, which also explains why many of our speccies were bought up before fridays ASX close. Many of my stocks closed well above their lows and most on white candles.


----------



## EZZA (31 July 2007)

i reckon ady might of seen the worst of it, hovering in the 50 c mark. some consolidation would be nice.

although a lot of volatility is expected over the coming month.  up 6 cents so far since friday.  

didn't realise that lithium would be a hot commodity, i knew iron ore was but lithium? interesting though. 

cheers for now.


----------



## GTBC (31 July 2007)

EZZA said:


> i reckon ady might of seen the worst of it, hovering in the 50 c mark. some consolidation would be nice.
> 
> although a lot of volatility is expected over the coming month.  up 6 cents so far since friday.
> 
> ...




  I believe the potash is the hot stuff aswell. As potash will be in high demand 
later on the year or next year as agriculture will be the next popular topic with the demand of bio-fuels and wheet. Thats my thoughts.


----------



## Knobby22 (31 July 2007)

Lithium is not rare. China are making it from sea water.
However the mine will produce it cheaply enough to make a nice profit.


----------



## EZZA (1 August 2007)

got hammered today, looking very shaky.

next support level looks to be around the 37 c mark.  hope this correction is around for too much longer.  don't think i'll be buying into anything any time soon.


----------



## EZZA (15 August 2007)

i'm out of this one guys, didn't stop loss, sold out at 32c.

anyone still in this one. 

i guess i should have expected this with corrections like this small caps can get smashed pretty hard at times.


----------



## AussiePaul72 (15 August 2007)

EZZA said:


> i'm out of this one guys, didn't stop loss, sold out at 32c.
> 
> anyone still in this one.
> 
> i guess i should have expected this with corrections like this small caps can get smashed pretty hard at times.




G'day Ezza .... yes i am still in this one .... not sure if i'm doing the right thing by holding or not .... this is the first big correction i have been through .... it sure is giving me some grey hairs! .... however, i've taken the attitude of riding it out (remains to be seen whether its the right thing to do or not) ... i'm prepared to be in for the med-long term meaning up to a few years.
Anybody with experience have any advice on how to trade during corrections with a medium to long term view?


----------



## Lachlan6 (15 August 2007)

G'Day Aussie Paul. I sold out of my short term trading ADY's recently. Am still in with a position however as I believe the long term prospects for this stock is very good. Have now (in accordance with the longer term view) switched my trading bias to a weekly view, and don't be surprised to see a further retracement down to resistance turned support at $0.25. If this holds, it may make another assault upon its new highs, but bear in mind this may be a while off yet. Still structurally sound graph (higher highs, lows), however if the June lows are broken, I will be out for sure.


----------



## YELNATS (15 August 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> ... i'm prepared to be in for the med-long term meaning up to a few years.
> Anybody with experience have any advice on how to trade during corrections with a medium to long term view?




You don't have to get up and dance to every tune the band strikes up. Sit it out for a while. regards YN


----------



## rub92me (16 August 2007)

Never thought we would see as low as 20 cents for ADY ever again. I may regret it later, but I bought some more at this level. This is my only long position remaining. The next couple of months will be interesting. Average price I paid for ADY is still around 10 cents though...


----------



## EZZA (20 August 2007)

WTF, ADY recovered pretty strongly from the bottom.  I sold out a while ago, without going back in.  Didn't really have the balls to stick around.


----------



## Absolutely (22 August 2007)

Definitely my strongest recoverer from the recent chaos. Just wish I had had the guts to buy more at 20c. Had I not been badly cut trying to catch the BMN falling knife I probably would have and would be laughing now.


Anyhow, there definitely is a rebuilding of confidence out there with this one. A good sign.


----------



## timelord (29 August 2007)

EZZA said:


> i'm out of this one guys, didn't stop loss, sold out at 32c.
> 
> anyone still in this one.
> 
> i guess i should have expected this with corrections like this small caps can get smashed pretty hard at times.




I am,  but only as a small spec buy.  There appears to be interest in this on another site.  I have been a sheep on this one, buying at a low, 24 cents.  One of a lonely few not red at the moment.


----------



## rub92me (30 August 2007)

Yesterday was a good price test for ADY - plenty of buyers stepped when it dropped below 36 cents. Short term I'm expecting it to hold above 35 cents now. Looks like it will gap back up again today to 40 cent plus. 
Long(ish) uptrend is still in place as far as I'm concerned in line with Lachlan's observations . Less volatility would be good for my heart though


----------



## rub92me (14 September 2007)

Well, 35 cents didn't hold and drifting down further on low volume. Next support between 30 and 32 cents (previous gap up). We should get some news soon on new iron ore sales contracts, and financing arrangements, which may give it a bit of a kick-up. The minor production delays should also be close to being resolved now with more crushers arriving. The real kicker will be the Lithium of course, but that's still some time away. Car producers are getting more serious about electric cars which bodes well for future Lithium batteries demand.


----------



## rub92me (18 September 2007)

Announcement out. Another smart strategic move to lock in low cost Sodium Sulphate which will significantly reduce Lithium production costs in the future. I really like the way the managing director of this company thinks ahead.


----------



## nikki (24 September 2007)

i have been watching this stock for a while and am surprised by the fact that all these good strategic decisions are not exciting any big buyers out there!!!


----------



## rub92me (24 September 2007)

nikki said:


> i have been watching this stock for a while and am surprised by the fact that all these good strategic decisions are not exciting any big buyers out there!!!



Volume looks okay today though.  Probably a bit too early for the real big (institutional) buyers to come into this one. Once (if?) it gets a market cap of over 500 million it will get on a few more radars imo.


----------



## nikki (24 September 2007)

good point RUB92me re market cap over 500 million. the more i read into the company the more excited i get about its potential. seems like they have proven resources compared to a lot of other speculatives that are still trying to show us something. i initially got interested in them because of their iron ore reserve but the purity seems very bad compared to what else is out there in small - medium sized iron ore's. their lithium find is amazing/incredible.


----------



## AussiePaul72 (24 September 2007)

Very good volume today pushing SP up over 0.40 and finishing on an intra-day high of 0.41. SP up over 9% today.
Does anyone know if there is an expected announcement due soon?


----------



## Knobby22 (25 September 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> Very good volume today pushing SP up over 0.40 and finishing on an intra-day high of 0.41. SP up over 9% today.
> Does anyone know if there is an expected announcement due soon?




I doubt it.
It just has a good expectation going forwards.
Less risk than most, still pretty good value.


----------



## rub92me (25 September 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> Very good volume today pushing SP up over 0.40 and finishing on an intra-day high of 0.41. SP up over 9% today.
> Does anyone know if there is an expected announcement due soon?



I'm expecting them to announce two things in the next 2 weeks or so:
1) Details about debt arrangement for further Rincon development
2) New iron ore sales agreement.
It wouldn't surprise me if the two were somehow combined; i.e. using the trade partner(s) to partly fund the debt.
Possibly already factored in the recent price rise though. 
I'll wait to 2010 anyway before I think of selling, but it's fun watching it do its thing in the meantime


----------



## nikki (25 September 2007)

what's happening in 2010? hmmm, i was hoping to retire at 40 in vanautu by then?? good luck trading!!!

Rub92me, what else do you trade that you would recommend watching. speculatives, i mean?


----------



## michael_selway (25 September 2007)

"I'm expecting them to announce two things in the next 2 weeks or so:
1) Details about debt arrangement for further Rincon development
2) New iron ore sales agreement.
It wouldn't surprise me if the two were somehow combined; i.e. using the trade partner(s) to partly fund the debt.
Possibly already factored in the recent price rise though. 
I'll wait to 2010 anyway before I think of selling, but it's fun watching it do its thing in the meantime "

Hi do you know what its resource base is currently?

thx

MS


----------



## rub92me (25 September 2007)

Just the iron ore so far: (60% owned)
Japonesa - 41 million tonnes @ 13.87% + 6.4 million inferred @ 16.52%
Japonesita- 21.9 million tonnes @ 19.7% (indicated) + 20.7 million inferred % 24.7%
Mariposa- drilling away, looks like a higher grade resource. 

Lithium & Potash resource is off the scale (about a 400 year mine life)
Lithium 911 thousand tonnes proven + 500 thousand indicated
Pothash 33 million tonnes proven + 17 million indicated


----------



## nikki (25 September 2007)

why the trading halt i wonder. i have to admit that ady's last trading halt seemed a little unnecessary. i.e. did they need a trading halt to annouce their increasing share of the project? i wonder if this one is going to be similar. 

i suspect it might have something to do with raising capital for their projects???


----------



## happytown (25 September 2007)

nikki said:


> why the trading halt i wonder.




from p 2,



> We are discussing with various parties iron ore sales contracts and agency relationships.






nikki said:


> i have to admit that ady's last trading halt seemed a little unnecessary. i.e. did they need a trading halt to annouce their increasing share of the project?




from asx website,

http://www.asx.com.au/investor/education/basics/trading_halts.htm



> ...
> 
> *ASX* may temporarily place a trading halt on a security following a company announcement.
> 
> ...




cheers


----------



## nikki (25 September 2007)

hmmmmmm, had not read p.2. of the annoucement. sounds like a very positive annoucement is comming our way. thanks for bringing it to my attention.


----------



## timelord (25 September 2007)

nikki said:


> hmmmmmm, had not read p.2. of the annoucement. sounds like a very positive annoucement is comming our way. thanks for bringing it to my attention.





Timing is everything.  I was putting in a sell when the halt came through.  Hopefully it will be positive news.  Most of the shares I have held of late  that has a trading halt, sinks after the news.  This sounds positive.


----------



## redandgreen (26 September 2007)

having read todays ann.......  ADY would have to be  a  MUST  for any 

portfolio in the next 3 months  imho

Anyone care to disagree???


----------



## michael_selway (26 September 2007)

rub92me said:


> Just the iron ore so far: (60% owned)
> Japonesa - 41 million tonnes @ 13.87% + 6.4 million inferred @ 16.52%
> Japonesita- 21.9 million tonnes @ 19.7% (indicated) + 20.7 million inferred % 24.7%
> Mariposa- drilling away, looks like a higher grade resource.
> ...




Do you know when they plan production and sales?

Also you mention "resource is off the scale", so potentially it could be avery huge resource, but atm not proven as yet?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 -- -- -- 
EPS -1.4 -- -- -- 
DPS 0.0 -- -- --


----------



## MS+Tradesim (26 September 2007)

Ady is already selling some iron ore but major contract expected by end of October. First batch of Lithium should be due Sept.08 with contracts expected by Mar.08 with an initial pre-sales contract due any time before then. Very huge Li resource is already proven. rub92me included that info. Please check anns.


----------



## Techbuy (26 September 2007)

ADY (Iron ore) is ready to sign contracts with a SP of $0.495 today and  FMG (Fortescue - also Iron Ore) is at $48.50.

 FMG is developing The Pilbara Iron Ore and Infrastructure Project and will commence shipping ore from Port Hedland in the first quarter of 2008.

While ADY is behind in shipping it is still well on track to ship massive amounts of ore. This is the ann today from ADY.

++++++++++++++++
Admiralty Resources, on behalf of its 60%-owned Cia Minera Santa Barbara joint
venture, has commenced discussions with various parties on sales of magnetite
iron ore for the period 2008 -2011
• Admiralty expects to enter a Heads of Agreement for supply of iron ore from
2010/11 to 2018 to be shipped from its proposed Punta Alcalde Capesize port
conditional on the ports’ completion date
• The iron ore contract discussions include a new 2007 benchmark price, funding
options and a change to free-on-board delivery basis
+++++++++++++++++

They are also diversified into other resources, this is from the same ann.

+++++++++++++++++
The Company is involved in four main projects:
• The Rincon Salar, Argentina, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium chloride, and potash project;
• The Cia Minera Santa Barbara, Chile, iron ore joint venture, through its 60% interest therein;
• The Pyke Hill, Australia, nickel and cobalt joint venture, through its 50% interest therein; and
• The Bulman, Australia, zinc and lead project.
++++++++++++++++++

Would appreciate some feedback on this as the SP gap beween the ADY and FMG is SOOOOO big and yet they seem to be on the same track.

Is FMG overpriced?
Is it because they are in Australia and ADY is in South America?
will ADY hit the same levels as FMG when they start shipping?
Cheers


----------



## nikki (26 September 2007)

did anyone else notice the incredible manipulation in the share price today!! i was amazed at how it broke 0.5.

fmg plans to ship 200 mgt per year if i am correct. ady does not even get a mention in the iron ore world in terms of volume. have a look at the recent presentations (should be on the asx web page for today) by sdl and gbg about their merger and how they fit into the australian iron ore family. 

ady's purity levels are pretty poor if i am correct in my reading. lastly, iron ore from south america costs a lot more to ship than the australian one's.

i have to admit, i am intrigued at it low capitalization given its potential and proven resources.


----------



## danc (26 September 2007)

Share price manipulation??? How do you mean?? Their iron ore is not much good??? Someone is buying it like someone is buying the shares. You sound like you think there is some sort of trick going on. Maybe you can see something I cant. Could you please explain. I have a heap and was going to buy another half a heap tomorrow. Maybe I shouldnt.


----------



## countryboy (26 September 2007)

ADY send their ore through the mill twice to lift the "poor" % to around 55% to 60 %. Yep its not a great grade but what they do after that makes up for it. Compare ady with a host of Australian IO hopefuls and I think you will find its present price very attractive. I find the current price of FMG to be unbelievable - will want to be a great dividend to buy in at that price....when they finally start making a profit.


----------



## nikki (27 September 2007)

that's interesting about the way they work with the impurities in the ore.

re the price manipulation, i noticed buyers piling at 0.49, 0.495 and 0.5 at around 3 to 4 million which i have not seen before. 

they were basically saying why sell when there are so many ready to buy at 0.49 and 0.495. 

as soon as the price got to 0.505 and 5.1 they all dissapeared without the volume being reflected in the total sales volume except that the price retraced back to .495. i was not looking for a short while during all this which happened around 3.40 - 3.55pm yesterday.

i.e. i think what happened was someone pushed the price from 0.47 upwards to 0.51 and sold massive lots with a huge profit. 

i have no problems with that because it means that today the stock might open above .5 and move towards .6. i nearly bought some at .51 because i saw the huge number of buyers @ 0.49 and 0.495.

i think this is a great stock and would be happy paying whatever market is today but given its fall from grace once it got to 0.67 i have been wondering if this stock gets manipulated badly because of the high volumes that traded.


----------



## tech/a (27 September 2007)

Trading this myself and watched on my own live screen.
Didnt see anything unusual.High volume buyers who pulled their bids prior to close.


----------



## Lachlan6 (27 September 2007)

If only it could become another FMG : Definently looking very good at the moment from a technical side anyway. This week has broken through key resistance with huge volume. Notice the recent correction in price was not supported by a fall in OBV. A very good sign that investors were picking this up at the cheaper price. Much higher levels beckon in my opinion.


----------



## tech/a (27 September 2007)

This may explain some of the price action in ADY.
I expect a follow through on ADY. This 100 charater rule is annoying.
When a chart shows a 1000 words.


----------



## Sean K (27 September 2007)

tech/a said:


> This 100 charater rule is annoying.
> When a chart shows a 1000 words.



I agree tech, but it can't be made possible. Was suggested in the policy dev, but the program won't play the game.


----------



## happytown (27 September 2007)

nikki said:


> ...
> 
> ady's purity levels are pretty poor if i am correct in my reading
> 
> ...




countryboy is correct in that they mill the ore to improve the 'purity', however the delivered 'purity' has exceeded 60% on all their shipments thus far, 

from the June 2007 Quarterly Report released 30/07/07, p2:



> We completed four shipments in the June quarter shipping approximately 157,000 tonnes of iron ore and Cia Minera Santa Barbara (CMSB) received more than US$11million in revenue. CMSB received an Fe bonus for every shipment, *exceeding our contract guarantee of 63.5% by more than 1% in some cases*. Wuhan has expressed their delight at the quality of the iron ore and are considering it for other iron ore applications. They are sympathetic to the issues associated with the start up of the Santa Barbara plant, and will renegotiate the delivery schedule for the balance of the contract past 30 September 2007.




cheers


----------



## rub92me (27 September 2007)

Techbuy said:


> ADY (Iron ore) is ready to sign contracts with a SP of $0.495 today and  FMG (Fortescue - also Iron Ore) is at $48.50.
> 
> Would appreciate some feedback on this as the SP gap beween the ADY and FMG is SOOOOO big and yet they seem to be on the same track.
> 
> ...



You can't really compare the 2 in my opinion.
FMG market cap is more than 25x ADY. They are planning to ship 15-20 times more iron ore than ADY in the next 5 years. 
Iron ore is only the 'means to an end' for ADY. The Lithium/Potash play has far better cost/revenue economics and will overtake the iron ore profit very quickly if all goes to plan.


----------



## tech/a (27 September 2007)

ADY is currently showing no demand.
Swamping by strong selling gives me no confidence in the short term.
I'm out at 49c


----------



## skating101 (27 September 2007)

The strong selling hints at profit taking from recent gains by a nervous market? Or is there something that I don't know?


----------



## nikki (27 September 2007)

very dissappointing finish wasn't it.

it seems to have repeated its last performance moving up to .64/67


----------



## mayk (27 September 2007)

I bought the stock at todays peak  I was hoping this will cross the resistance this time... Oh well now it is hold for me...


----------



## AussiePaul72 (27 September 2007)

mayk said:


> I bought the stock at todays peak  I was hoping this will cross the resistance this time... Oh well now it is hold for me...




Hey Mayk .... if it makes you feel any better i bought in at 0.545 just before it peaked on its last rapid rise in July ... and in hindsight my timing could have been better but IMHO over the long term its not going to make much difference at all. 

Just be patient and while ADY appears to get traded quite a bit and therefore can spike and dip a fair bit, however, the general trend in SP over the last 12 mths has seen it rise from around the 8c level to where it is today. 

Iron ore is one of the projects that will get ADY going but keep in mind the potentially world class lithium resource that is being developed. Of course, DYOR!


----------



## nikki (28 September 2007)

*annual report - wow*

hi all, very impressed after reading the annual report.

noticed for instance that they are planning to be shipping upwards of 5 million tonnes of ore annually. not sure if i am correct but MGX is aiming for 10 and the merged gbg/sdl entity will do around 60. share price of MGX was 2.30 yesterday - i think.

they will have around 20% of the world market on lithium - that is a huge resource with amazing potential.

i could not make sense of their position in terms of how much money they have, etc. they seem to be a little cash poor especially after the recent purchases. anyone have thoughts on this?

very impressed shareholder.


----------



## rub92me (28 September 2007)

*Re: annual report - wow*



nikki said:


> hi all, very impressed after reading the annual report.
> 
> noticed for instance that they are planning to be shipping upwards of 5 million tonnes of ore annually. not sure if i am correct but MGX is aiming for 10 and the merged gbg/sdl entity will do around 60. share price of MGX was 2.30 yesterday - i think.
> 
> ...



I wouldn't worry too much about the cash position. They will have another 6 million coming in from options conversion before end of November. 
For the iron ore port development they will need some financing, which won't be that hard to get given the revenue that they are creating.
For the Lithium they will get lump sum prepayments for a 10 year 10% take-off agreement.


----------



## nikki (29 September 2007)

I really like the price movement on friday. It seems to have tested the resistence of .43/44 and rebound with some force before the massive sell off at the close.

I thought those of you who are holding short term and who bought above 0.5 might find some use in the following comments from a broker i read:

"ADY - Admiralty Resources NL – 49.5c
-Comments from 14 May 2007-The current price target of 26c is on the verge of being met. Should a further upside breakout occur from this level the calculated price target is 51c. Considering the Stock has moved from 10 cents to 25 cents ( 250% ) then a further 100% is not out of the Question.

-The Weekly chart of ADY shows the price target being met on the week of 2 July 2007 with a major corrective move during the recent market volatility. 
-The rickshaw man at the high shows rejection of a high price with Strong move back to 19c where the price tested the long term trend line (3). 
-It should be noted the low of 19c is a higher low than the June low. 
-This highlights the methodology behind drawing accurate lines. 
-Recently the stock has rallied with a higher low being set at 32c and a further breakout underway. 
-A price target of 64c is showing at the recent high price resistance area, look for more consolidation in this area. 
-Primary trend is UP. 
-For traders an initial stop would be taken at the support point of 43c. "


----------



## nikki (2 October 2007)

can someone translate their annoucement for me????? i have no idea whether this is good or bad!


----------



## skating101 (2 October 2007)

I second the translation request. I think im wrong but it sounds like the demerger will leave 2 seperately listed entities (one the Iron Ore project and one the Lithium project) and each ADY share will become one in each of the 2 entities?


----------



## nikki (2 October 2007)

for every 3.47215 ady shares you will get 1 ady share. however, you will also get 1 share in the new entity that they create which they are calling rincorn lithium ltd.

what i do not know is whether this is good or bad in terms of an investment. sellers are dumping at the moment but this is usuall with annoucements of this kind. 

what i am unsure about is how many rincorn lithium ltd shares will be offered and how much they market will value them.

also, i have no idea what their iron ore venutre on its own would be worth?


----------



## skating101 (2 October 2007)

im in the same boat as you nikki, i think a lot of people are unsure how to take this news and so are selling nonetheless.


----------



## happytown (2 October 2007)

nikki said:


> can someone translate their annoucement for me




on a brief read they indeed intend splitting the co into two entities - one for iron ore, one for lithium.

prior to doing that they will be undertaking a share consolidation, so that for every 3.47215 shares you have you will now have 1 share, by doing this they will reduce the number of ADY shares from over 960 million to 280 million, thus the 3.47215 ratio

further for every 1 ADY share you hold post consolidation you will receive 1 gratis (ie free) share in the newly listed ADY-lithium entity

if you believe in both of the iron ore and lithium projects in their own right it would arguably be a logical progression for the co and as they indicate in the ann, good for shareholders as it unlocks the potential of each project separately

for eg, if you hold 34,722 ADY shares, they will become 10,000 ADY shares, then you will receive 10,000 (gratis) ADY-lithium shares

so you will have 10,000 ADY-iron ore shares and 10,000 ADY-lithium shares

as there will be less ADY shares on issue after the consolidation, the price of the ADY shares should (all things being equal) initially (and before the lithium spin-off [and this depends on how much of the lithium project the market has already factored into the current ADY price]) increase such that the current market cap is the same as the post-consolidation market cap

cheers 

PS I see you worked out the ann whilst I was posting


----------



## rub92me (2 October 2007)

nikki said:


> can someone translate their annoucement for me????? i have no idea whether this is good or bad!



It's neither good nor bad at this stage until we know at what price the issue will be valued.
1) Your existing holding is consolidated from 3.47215 to 1. I.e. if you now hold 100,000 shares, then you will end up with 28,801 shares (assuming they will round up). Presumably the shareprice will be multiplied by the same factor so your netposition is unchanged.
2) You will get 1 share in the new entity Rincon Lithium Limited for each ADY share you hold after consolidation. I.e. in this example you will get 28,801 shares.
I think the drop in price today is caused by the production delays that were also announced..


----------



## ta2693 (2 October 2007)

Consolidation will decrease market liquidity, as I have observed in ASX.
There is big liquidity on ARJ, but no liquidity after consolidation.
Same thing happens on ZBB.


----------



## nikki (2 October 2007)

production delays - good point but i think i had assumed that from the annual report when they commented on ports not being available. i had not realised that they did not have enough equipment.


----------



## semochen (2 October 2007)

Hello, and nice to meet you all...

Have just given ADY a call, and how we are interpreting the announcement atm is correct. We get 1 ADY share for every 3.47215 shares we currently hold, plus 1 free Rincon shares. 

So it's all up to how the Rincon shares are valued when they are issued. 

Can someone please help with calculations on the possible value of Rincon? 
The guy on the phone said it's to be based on future earnings, and depending on what P/E ration they are going to use. But how do we find the value/earnings of the Lithium project??


----------



## ADoyle (2 October 2007)

I believe one of the company goals here will be to decrease the trading of the stock and hence achieve appropriate values in both projects for serious shareholders.  
ATM the wild fluctuations in ADY due to traders jumping on and off is deterring the mid to long term investor.


----------



## rub92me (2 October 2007)

semochen said:


> Hello, and nice to meet you all...
> 
> Have just given ADY a call, and how we are interpreting the announcement atm is correct. We get 1 ADY share for every 3.47215 shares we currently hold, plus 1 free Rincon shares.
> 
> ...



From their latest presentation and incorporated the Opex saving from the Sodium Sulphate resource acquisition (saving around $10 million/annum)
Lithium from June 2009: Annual Opex around $25 million, Revenue around $105 million.
Potassium from Dec 2008: Annual Opex ??, Revenue around $20 million.


----------



## nikki (2 October 2007)

rub92me said:


> From their latest presentation and incorporated the Opex saving from the Sodium Sulphate resource acquisition (saving around $10 million/annum)
> Lithium from June 2009: Annual Opex around $25 million, Revenue around $105 million.
> Potassium from Dec 2008: Annual Opex ??, Revenue around $20 million.




Thanks for this - is this good or bad?

Not sure if i am correct: MGX trades at $2.6 with 787.8 million shares on issue (market cap @ 1205 million). It is expecting to produce 'maybe' 3 mtpa with increases in the following years. They have good access to ports. They have $61 million in the bank but have a debt of $91million. 

ADY will have 280 million shares on issue after consolidation. It will produce between 1.5-2 mt in 2008 with estimates of 3 mt in 2009. 

what does that tell me Better get back to work?


----------



## semochen (2 October 2007)

Thanks rub92me...

so... if we say 100 million per year revenue..

and 280 million shares after the split..

100/280 = 35.7c earnings per share

if we use P/E of 5, Price = 1.785

Have I done this right? if it is... then it doesn't sound too bad.. cos : 

1.785/ 3.47215 = 0.514  (3.47215 being the ratio no the announcement today)

plus we are getting the ADY (iron ore part)


----------



## AussiePaul72 (3 October 2007)

Another good day for ADY today with good volume and testing above 50c again. The market seems to have given the announcement and share offer the tick of approval. Holding!


----------



## nikki (4 October 2007)

I am excited but a little confused with their announcement today. are these two new tenements different to the existing ones that have been supplying the ore. also, can anyone tell whether they have indicated what quantity this new find is likely to be. 

I am so impressed by the fundamentals of this company but i keep doubting myself because of the market cap of ADY. 

As much as i think there are advantages to having huge shares on offer by creating liquidity there is something so frustrating about the day traders who hammer a stock back to its openning price when image where the stock would be today if yesterday's aggressive selling had not happened.


----------



## rub92me (4 October 2007)

nikki said:


> I am excited but a little confused with their announcement today. are these two new tenements different to the existing ones that have been supplying the ore. also, can anyone tell whether they have indicated what quantity this new find is likely to be.
> 
> I am so impressed by the fundamentals of this company but i keep doubting myself because of the market cap of ADY.
> 
> As much as i think there are advantages to having huge shares on offer by creating liquidity there is something so frustrating about the day traders who hammer a stock back to its openning price when image where the stock would be today if yesterday's aggressive selling had not happened.



Yes, they are additional to what they're currently mining. They've only touched/seriously looked at about 2% of the tenements they have. 
Grades are looking promising, but beyond that there isn't much to say until they drill more holes. It's all a bit academic anyway how much iron ore resource they will eventualley end up with, and I don't think there is any doubt of much more to come. They're capped by how much they can get out the ground and shipped more than by their resource imo.
It will be interesting to see how they will value the two separate entities (iron ore and Lithium) going forward and how they will split it out. I think that will give a good insight in what to expect from this in the future. 
Without the daytraders it would be a bit dull to watch, in the longer term they won't decide where the shareprice will be 2-3 years from now though.


----------



## nikki (4 October 2007)

rub92me said:


> It's all a bit academic anyway how much iron ore resource they will eventualley end up with, and I don't think there is any doubt of much more to come. They're capped by how much they can get out the ground and shipped more than by their resource imo.
> 
> It will be interesting to see how they will value the two separate entities (iron ore and Lithium) going forward and how they will split it out. I think that will give a good insight in what to expect from this in the future.
> Without the daytraders it would be a bit dull to watch, in the longer term they won't decide where the shareprice will be 2-3 years from now though.




good point about the cap because of the 3.9(?) mtpa permit. i assume now they will be able to reduce costs by taking from tenements with higher FE grades. I wonder if they will be able to increase their permit once they have more proven resources.

is the japonesa and japonesita FE hematite or magnetite (i couldnt find info on this). the annoucement today talks about finding megnetite which i think is worth more than hematite (no idea why?) - which is why SDL's ore is worth more than GBG's aside from volumes.

your right about the excitment of watching ady - it certainly keeps me on the edge of my seat


----------



## skating101 (4 October 2007)

the market does seem particularly disinterested in ADY right now, i suspect despite the good news everyone still wants to know what the IPO will be for the new Rincon Salar entity, it really does seem to be holding the share price back at 50, nevermind the fundamentals are still strong and more good news.


----------



## rub92me (5 October 2007)

skating101 said:


> the market does seem particularly disinterested in ADY right now, i suspect despite the good news everyone still wants to know what the IPO will be for the new Rincon Salar entity, it really does seem to be holding the share price back at 50, nevermind the fundamentals are still strong and more good news.



Sorry, but I don't understand where you get the apparent disinterest from. Volumes the last 10 days are near record highs and the price has gone up 50% in the last 3 weeks. Having another good go today at poking its head above the 50 cents.
Some further info on the proposed demerger from the ADY website:
Questions & Answers on the Admiralty Resources Demerger 


			
				 ADY.COM.AU; said:
			
		

> Q: What is the process for the Admiralty Resources demerger and how will my share holding be affected?
> 
> Step 1: Consolidation of Admiralty Resources (ADY) shares
> 
> ...


----------



## roland (5 October 2007)

ADY's performance today makes me forget a little about PDN. Depth is good, volume is good, propects are good - what more could you ask for


----------



## nikki (5 October 2007)

thanks for posting that Rub92me. 

i read that on their web page and saw great potential in them commissioning a professional assessment of the two projects. I think that will highlight even more the value in the lithium based projects and will positively impact share price.

clearly, the selling and buying volume in the past week has been pretty impressive. unless there is a severe correction in the DJIA tonight i am feeling optimistic aboud ADY hitting .6


----------



## skating101 (5 October 2007)

Your right rub92me i only said that because I felt that the number of people buying and holding the shares at that time seemed small since the SP was closing at the same price everyday with big swings during the day. Also do you guys think the Santa Barbara iron ore operation a good invesment by itself?


----------



## nikki (5 October 2007)

I think once they manage to get some of the sales contracts for the ore it will be a great company because it will be one of the few small to mid cap iron ore companies with an income stream to do more. 

Given the size and number of tenements and the purity of the ore there is great potential in what it will do. I think the cap on its annual production will impact how large it can get in the long-term. Once this is amended the potential for it to become huge just in terms of ore production seems  huge.

I am more worried about the potential of exchange rate, tsunami in chile and port availability in terms of what it will do in the future.


----------



## rub92me (5 October 2007)

skating101 said:


> Also do you guys think the Santa Barbara iron ore operation a good invesment by itself?



That will depend on what they value it at when it demerges. 
Back of the envelope estimates for revenue from 2009 suggests that Lithium costs vs revenue are 3 times better than for Iron ore. 
So let's assume the following: after consolidation share price will be $2 with 280 million shares on issue. 
ADY Iron ore will be: SP: 50 cents - market cap $140 million. 2009 profit on this around 21 million - 7.5 cents a share. That's good enough for me.
ADY Lithium will be SP: 1.5 - market cap $ 420 million.


----------



## AussiePaul72 (5 October 2007)

rub92me said:


> That will depend on what they value it at when it demerges.
> Back of the envelope estimates for revenue from 2009 suggests that Lithium costs vs revenue are 3 times better than for Iron ore.
> So let's assume the following: after consolidation share price will be $2 with 280 million shares on issue.
> ADY Iron ore will be: SP: 50 cents - market cap $140 million. 2009 profit on this around 21 million - 7.5 cents a share. That's good enough for me.
> ADY Lithium will be SP: 1.5 - market cap $ 420 million.




Hey Rub92me, if your figures are close to being right and they seem quite plausable from the outset (although i'm not an analyst on these things) .....i'd be a very happy investor in ADY 

This last month has been very encouraging for ADY ......up around 60% in the last 3 weeks from around the 33-34c level to a close of 53.5c today......and convincingly finished above the 50c level after testing it on a number of occasions recently ..... very strong volumes continue to be traded even as the SP has moved up

The demerger (without knowing exact details but from what i understand) could offer more value to shareholders. Also from my understanding, its not to late for new shareholders to get the whole share offer in both companies. This may be creating a lot of interest at present in the market. This is just my opinion and the way i see it ......DYOR


----------



## AussiePaul72 (8 October 2007)

Huge day of trading for ADY today. Biggest volume (over 74 million) traded in a single day since early January this year.

IMO it seems that ADY is well and truly in the scopes of day traders at the moment. It hit an intra-day high of 59c (up over 10%) before sellers brought it back to finish the day at 54.5c (up 1c on Fridays close).

It does show there is a lot of interest in ADY at present one way or the other.

What do others read into the current ADY trading activity?


----------



## rub92me (8 October 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> What do others read into the current ADY trading activity?



Lots of effort (volume) for little gain. Short term I wouldn't be surprised if it retraces a bit over the next couple of days on lower volume. Unless they throw in another nice announcement of course .


----------



## nikki (9 October 2007)

hi rub92me, would you mind telling me what the red line is through the top chart. i am not much of a chartist.

i agree about retracing backwards. the candle it formed yesterday would certainly keep me at bay!!! the fast stochastic (on a 5 day average) shows over-bought signals whereas the MACD divergence is the strongest it has been for a while - so good news would certainly revive some strong buying interest.

its a shame it did not get the chance to test .6. that would have been interesting to watch. i guess anything more that a 10% gain in one day is signal for traders to sell on the day.


----------



## rub92me (9 October 2007)

nikki said:


> hi rub92me, would you mind telling me what the red line is through the top chart. i am not much of a chartist.



It's the 34 day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) confirming that the (shortish) trend is up. But then we already knew that anyway I suppose... If it dips too far below that I'd be looking for another opportunity to add for the long term.


----------



## SevenFX (9 October 2007)

rub92me said:


> If it dips *too far below *that I'd be looking for another opportunity to add for the long term.




Rub92me
Is that even if it were Onetell or HIH :, as companies trading below 120-200ema for extended periods could indicate a sign of trouble.

Nikki.

You may find this link useful, as sight has plenty of good stuff.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_averages

Cheers
SevenFX


----------



## rub92me (9 October 2007)

SevenFX said:


> Rub92me
> Is that even if it were Onetell or HIH :, as companies trading below 120-200ema for extended periods could indicate a sign of trouble.



Nope; if it would trade below 120-200 EMA for a long time I would probably sell as I agree that could be a sign of trouble (or at least not going anywhere positive in a hurry). It hasn't done that for a while though.
When I said 'dip', I meant to imply a short sharp move below the 34 day EMA line (which is higher than the 120-200 day EMA).


----------



## nikki (9 October 2007)

Thanks for the site Teckmann. What a fantastic site with so much good stuff to read???? Appreciate your help.

Rub92me, can i ask whether you can connect the software you use to a live feed from something like etrade or commsec. i noticed it is well priced to buy but how do you get your information re the stocks. Sorry everyone else for asking this but no idea how to differentiate between all the stuff that is out there and i need something more sophisticated that etrade!!!!!


----------



## rub92me (9 October 2007)

Hi Nikki, I use Amibroker with a plug in to Interactive Brokers to get intraday data for some of the stocks I follow closely. I use Premium data to get my end of day data which I use to run scans and test my set ups and trading plans (futures and ASX data). Still learning most of that myself though.


----------



## SevenFX (9 October 2007)

nikki said:


> can connect the software you use to a live feed from something like etrade or commsec.




I've asked the question a few times b4 as that would be a cheap/free data feed on a decent charting program, and what what I've found is can't be done, unless you can write a api (application program interface) to support dde (dynamic data exchange) between systems.

Though I would think these brokers would have a problem as one would have to hack it to get this to work

SevenFX


----------



## nikki (10 October 2007)

hi all,

does anyone know whether the 3.9 mtpa license for japonesa means that the soberana & negrita mines are subject to a different license? if so, is there a cap on how much ady can produce in iron ore?

can anyone tell if the announcement today is of any real value to the company? i guess all this is helping them greatly with their negotiations relating to the sale of their iron ore?


----------



## rub92me (18 October 2007)

This has been consolidating nicely above 50 cents on lower volume in the past 10 days or so. Last hour of trading yesterday was looking promising and finishing up 2.5 cents. Pre-open at the moment is looking strong with the potential of a little gap-up above 55 cents. Will it have another go at 60 cents? A close today above 57 cents could mean it is starting its next leg up in earnest. Fingers and toes crossed.


----------



## nikki (18 October 2007)

that would be good!

it looks like sellers are out in masses from .57 onwards. not sure who would have the bulldozer to wipe them out.

one thing i have realised with ady is that the moment i think it is going to do something in particular it does the opposite. so, for today i am going to go and count waves.


----------



## nikki (18 October 2007)

rub92me said:


> This has been consolidating nicely above 50 cents on lower volume in the past 10 days or so. Last hour of trading yesterday was looking promising and finishing up 2.5 cents. Pre-open at the moment is looking strong with the potential of a little gap-up above 55 cents. Will it have another go at 60 cents? A close today above 57 cents could mean it is starting its next leg up in earnest. Fingers and toes crossed.





hi rub92me, are you the one buying those 1 million + parcels. what do you know that i don't.

if it finishes at or around .57 can you please be my stockbroker - good read of the stock.


----------



## spruik (19 October 2007)

nikki said:


> that would be good!
> 
> it looks like sellers are out in masses from .57 onwards. not sure who would have the bulldozer to wipe them out.
> 
> one thing i have realised with ady is that the moment i think it is going to do something in particular it does the opposite. so, for today i am going to go and count waves.




Like someone on HC commented, it looks like "changing of the guards", from traders to investors.

With so many owning them from around 10c and the roller coasting in recent past there will be many profit takers. But the base it's been forming (50-55) looks very strong.

(Long in ADY)


----------



## rub92me (19 October 2007)

nikki said:


> hi rub92me, are you the one buying those 1 million + parcels. what do you know that i don't.
> 
> if it finishes at or around .57 can you please be my stockbroker - good read of the stock.



Nah, that wasn't me :.I was lucky enough to get in early on this one and only trade small portions for short term if I see a low risk set up. 
It fell a bit short of my optimistic expectations, but a close of 56 cents was still the second highest close. Another big volume day may do it, but not many punters lining up in the pre-open buy depth so far...


----------



## Absolutely (29 October 2007)

Well there you go - something completely different to think about. lead zinc anomaly. Hasn't done anything for the share price but at least we know there are other things this company has going for it besides lithium and iron ore.


----------



## skating101 (29 October 2007)

Where have all the new investors gone? Is everyone sitting on the sidelines until the price for the new entity comes out?


----------



## nikki (29 October 2007)

skating101 said:


> Where have all the new investors gone? Is everyone sitting on the sidelines until the price for the new entity comes out?




really low volume - no one wanting to sell or buy??? 

ok!! who cares about zine and lead but after that huge open i thought something might happen other than the usual sell, sell, sell on strength.


----------



## skating101 (30 October 2007)

it seems like noone wants to touch this stock, am i missing some information or something, when is more information about the demerger supposed to be released?


----------



## nikki (30 October 2007)

i found this in another chat room


T$ question to pt from traph...lithium.

New Post | Post Reply Back
Add User To Favourites | Add Stock to Favourites | Email to a Friend | Ignore Member | Ignore Stock
Subject: T$ question to pt from traph...lithium.
Stock Code: ADY - ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL.
Posted: 01/02/07 07:48 Hotcopper Radio: ADY on BoardRoom Radio
Posted By: jak360 Views: 1206
Post #: 1529692 (Start of thread) Sentiment: Buy
IP: 202.12.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure: Stock Held
Hi PT,

Referring to the recent report released today I wish to ask about the Lithium production dates.

As mentioned in the report, is the production date reflecting the actual production of Lithium, completion or delivery? in which case the dates are likely to be some considerable months afterwards, would that be correct?

If this is the way I have interpreted the dates, in that case we are not likely to see ADY's cash flow from Lithium until late 2009 to early 2010.

Have I mis-interpreted this fact?

Regards
Tony
-----------------------------------------------------
Response From Phillip:

Yes you are correct - you have got it totally wrong.

Ponds are being built now as we speak, in 300-400 days the first batch of brine concentrated to 10,000ppm will be available and we would have produced the first batch of potash (a by-product). Remember the cost of potash is nil to produce so the $175 tonne hits the bottom line.

It takes about one day to take the brine and produce 99.5% pure lithium carbonate, 40 mins to produce lithium chloride and another day to produce lithium Hydroxide. We expect to produce it in batches of 76 tonne (see the quarterly report yesterday for mass balances). We will also produce (at this stage) 99.999 computer battery grade to manufacture lithium hexa flurophosphate.

So from July to Sept 2008 if all things are achieved and its a hot summer in 2008 and global warming continues we will have our first 1,000 tonne. And then onwards we will produce about 1,500 tonne of lithium product per month.

However, Japanese order supplies for the year in March, so their FY year is April to March, so by December this year I hope to announce sales contracts for the June 2008-9 production year which is six months production for the Japanese FY (say Sep to Mar), and announce standby L/C and firm orders. I will be using some of these L/C's for finance to complete the project. They will have particular features that allowme to do it.

At present our total opex estimate is $35m, 17,000 tonnes of product at 6,500 tonne comes in at 110.5m, 80,000 tonne of potash at 14m so that gives us an EBITDA of $124m plus SB at say 3.5m tonnes is EBIT 21m so back of the envelop total EBIT is $110, so on 1.1 billion shares thats 10 cents a share - US, pick a multiple and you got the story.

Compute that for 20 years, put a terminal value of $500m for the salar and $200m for SB, do a NPV at say 12% disc rate and see what you get. (remember unlike normal mining projects the salar has an almost infinite life, and SB has so much in prospective tenements it will be a long time before the ore is gone, plus the infrastructure assets we are building, have significant value in Chile).

Thats the story.

cheers from New York


----------



## roland (30 October 2007)

Hi, I have been an ADY trader since it was $0.09 and it has been very good to me. We all have a "this is my baby", and this is one of mine 

My view on ADY is that they have a good resource and a low cost method of of utilising it. You may remember their website a year or so back, scanned copies of articles from South American local newspapers.

It's been quite a good story, a desert salt lake and a pile of rubbish left behind from a previous endeavour and a forward thinking CEO to turn this into an investment that has captured the imaginations of prospective investors.

Lithium is plentiful, but it doesn't have the big bang or prestige of other in vogue resources, but who cares - we need it for batteries, and we will need batteries - like ... forever. At least until the plastic batteries become more affordable (thank you University of NSW).

Little companies like ADY gain a huge advantange over larger players through under capitalisation of infrastructure, like a lot of our furture oilers, iron ore, and gold companies. If you can pull it out of the ground cheaply, then your profit margin is higher and your share income is more attractive.

Where BHP or RIO would build a huge metal and concrete fence to protect a stock pile of material costing millions, ADY dumps a few discarded shipping containers to surround the perimeter - same affect, 1/1000th the price 

I like ADY for pure "Under-Dog" approach. More power to ADY !!!


----------



## nikki (31 October 2007)

any thoughts on the report anyone - dissapointed that santa barbara operation is still without its equipment. hope that it does not get delayed too much longer to cause problems with delivery and buyer.

delay does not seem problematic in terms of delivery but it confirms the problems with having an Australian management team overseeing a chilean operation.

the update on the lithium production is very positive and seems to be on time to generate income and bring in the necessary contracts.


----------



## AussiePaul72 (4 November 2007)

G'day All,
I've been holding ADY for a while now. The volume has dropped off a bit lately maybe just due to reduction of day traders and has seen the SP settle back a little aswell.
ADY have a number of significant projects and changes in structure on the go at present. I'd be interested to know what others think is required for the SP to breakout over the recent highs and beyond 60c??? All comments and thoughts welcome!


----------



## rub92me (5 November 2007)

Well, they just got a significant holder on board that bought 79 million shares, mostly above 50 cents if that's any comfort to you and they're unlikely to sell in the short term.
I think that the break-up of the company will possibly generate some interest, and for me it will all depend on how they distribute the value between the iron ore and the Lithium. Prior to that we can expect some initial sales agreement for the Lithium which will further de-risk that part of the operation. At this time there is probably still quite a few people that bought in above 40 cents not too long ago that may think about protecting some profit or get a bit panicky if they bought above 50 cents. I'm in it for the long haul and expect some bumps and dips on the way.


----------



## yangxh (5 November 2007)

please see the top 20 major shareholders as at 4th Oct.  Most of them are investment banks.   Now, ADY has had one of them significantly increased its holding.


----------



## ttnt (5 November 2007)

yangxh said:


> please see the top 20 major shareholders as at 4th Oct.  Most of them are investment banks.   Now, ADY has had one of them significantly increased its holding.




Those shareholder are the 'nominess' only, not the banks themselves.
Too many trader in this share...............................................................


----------



## yangxh (8 November 2007)

ttnt said:


> Those shareholder are the 'nominess' only, not the banks themselves.
> Too many trader in this share...............................................................




Is Merrill Lynch (recent buyer became a substantial shareholder 8.5%) also on behalf of other investors?  I am bit confused as I am new.
From Sept 10 to Oct 26, Merrill Lynch bought total 78,900,000 shares for a total of A$41,248,000 (average price was $0.52 per share).  Today's close price was at $0.48 which was at recent support level.  From this analysis, my opinion is that ADY is a good buy.  Merrill Lynch must be confident in ADY.
Anyone give any suggestions, please?  I am learning.


----------



## STRAT (8 November 2007)

yangxh said:


> Is Merrill Lynch (recent buyer became a substantial shareholder 8.5%) also on behalf of other investors?  I am bit confused as I am new.
> From Sept 10 to Oct 26, Merrill Lynch bought total 78,900,000 shares for a total of A$41,248,000 (average price was $0.52 per share).  Today's close price was at $0.48 which was at recent support level.  From this analysis, my opinion is that ADY is a good buy.  Merrill Lynch must be confident in ADY.
> Anyone give any suggestions, please?  I am learning.



ADY is a good buy IMO. Todays price is in response to the DOW which is to be expected as ADY is heavily traded by day traders. More bad news from the US may mean ADY is an even better buy some time later this month


----------



## BigJohnny (9 November 2007)

yangxh said:


> Is Merrill Lynch (recent buyer became a substantial shareholder 8.5%) also on behalf of other investors?  I am bit confused as I am new.
> From Sept 10 to Oct 26, Merrill Lynch bought total 78,900,000 shares for a total of A$41,248,000 (average price was $0.52 per share).  Today's close price was at $0.48 which was at recent support level.  From this analysis, my opinion is that ADY is a good buy.  Merrill Lynch must be confident in ADY.
> Anyone give any suggestions, please?  I am learning.




More likely is that Merillls is acting as custodian/prime broker for some other institution or fund manger.


----------



## rub92me (9 November 2007)

STRAT said:


> Todays price is in response to the DOW which is to be expected as ADY is heavily traded by day traders. More bad news from the US may mean ADY is an even better buy some time later this month



Retreat yesterday was on relatively low volume, but generally I agree with you. Look what happened in August, with ADY diving with the rest of the market. I got lucky and managed to get some more at 20 cents, but even if you would have bought at 30-35 cents you would be sitting pretty now. If prices were to get hammered that low again then I would consider buying a bit more if I have the cash.


----------



## yangxh (13 November 2007)

To me what BHP and RIO merger means that BHP-RIO as one has more power to determine iron ore price rise.  It means ADY iron income will increase when ore price rises.  Is this correct?


----------



## skating101 (13 November 2007)

so much for finding strength at 50c its back at 45c. When will there be more news about the demerger such as expected price for new entity again?


----------



## rub92me (13 November 2007)

skating101 said:


> so much for finding strength at 50c its back at 45c. When will there be more news about the demerger such as expected price for new entity again?



Guidance provided by ADY was that the valuation would be a complex exercise and would be completed after Christmas. Demerger is planned for February/March next year. So unlikely to hear anything more on this this year I'm afraid, unless they give us an unexpected Christmas present by completing it earlier than planned:


----------



## yangxh (29 November 2007)

ADY should have an announcement soon about its Bulman new anomalies.  They said in October that it should be out in 4 to 6 weeks time.  It is about the 3 new Pb Zn anomalies they discovered.
Anyone knows any *other* announcement due soon? When will they be about due to release?


----------



## skating101 (30 November 2007)

Anyone think there is any particular reason for the continuous drop in the share price of ADY recently it just seems to lose a few percent everyday


----------



## nikki (30 November 2007)

i have noticed that some people on another forum have been suggesting that it seems like someone is selling big to fund their option buying that is due by today!! 

i went onto stocknessmonster.com to see volumes being traded and noticed that a lot of the sales in the past week have been large chunks sold without (apparent) care for SP.

it seems that volumes have significantly dropped today which might suggest that this theory about the options seller is true.

i think the rest of the sells have been due to short term traders getting nervous about the drop in SP b/c of US volitality.

to be honest my concern is that ADY is not down a lot compared the measly 5% drop in the XJO. if the DJIA corrects in the next week (once again) and the XJO follows i suspect ADY SP might be in trouble. 

ALL theoretical off course????


----------



## AussiePaul72 (4 December 2007)

skating101 said:


> Anyone think there is any particular reason for the continuous drop in the share price of ADY recently it just seems to lose a few percent everyday




I am a holder and couldn't see any reason for the downturn in the SP over that period. Nikki may have been onto something. I haven't heard any other explanations!
Anyway, whatever the reason, ADY has surged over the last couple of days and closed at 50c today. Back in a strong position. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow and through the rest of the week.
I guess we might be getting close to some more news on the lithium and iron ore company split. Anyone know if one of the key dates is coming up soon?
Good luck to all fellow ADY-ers!


----------



## roland (4 December 2007)

Well, I am very happy with ADY today and it marks my 60th trade since the beginning of 2005. Sad to say I am all out now. I get these stupid emotional attachments to stocks, but ADY has been one of my best all time friends.

Farewell dear friend, see you again if you come back to $0.43 or better.

Good luck long termers!


----------



## rub92me (4 December 2007)

nikki said:


> i have noticed that some people on another forum have been suggesting that it seems like someone is selling big to fund their option buying that is due by today!!



Sorry, but that theory doesn't make any logical sense to me. Why would you be selling in a thin market, therefore bringing down the share price if you have options to convert that will be worth less as a result of that??
Sorry to see you go as a holder roland; I think it is worth holding to at least the demerger details are clear. Personally I'll hold beyond that, but may sell some of the post merger iron ore ADY shares to convert to the Lithium shares. All depends on how they split it.


----------



## roland (4 December 2007)

rub92me said:


> Sorry, but that theory doesn't make any logical sense to me. Why would you be selling in a thin market, therefore bringing down the share price if you have options to convert that will be worth less as a result of that??
> Sorry to see you go as a holder roland; I think it is worth holding to at least the demerger details are clear. Personally I'll hold beyond that, but may sell some of the post merger iron ore ADY shares to convert to the Lithium shares. All depends on how they split it.




The demerger worries me, I've struggled through a few of my holdings with unknowns such as this and generally haven't fared too well. Anyway, I've been out before ... and most likely I'll be back again.


----------



## nikki (4 December 2007)

rub92me said:


> Sorry, but that theory doesn't make any logical sense to me. Why would you be selling in a thin market, therefore bringing down the share price if you have options to convert that will be worth less as a result of that??
> Sorry to see you go as a holder roland; I think it is worth holding to at least the demerger details are clear. Personally I'll hold beyond that, but may sell some of the post merger iron ore ADY shares to convert to the Lithium shares. All depends on how they split it.




Options expired at the end of november. i.e. someone with lots of shares was selling at whatever cost because they had to finance the purchase of their options at 0.1 or loose the right to buy them. 

I am not so sure of this theory (mostly discussed on TopStocks by people who probably wanted the theory to work for them) either because it is speculation but having had a look at the trades in the past few weeks there were some huge volume sells at every opportunity!!! Also, the real pick up in SP happened this week even though the XJO had reversed trend sometime last week. 

So!!! I am glad to be out of the 0.4 price bracket and looking forward to 0.6's

Roland, if you have been with ADY for this long surely the candlestick pattern of the stock should support the idea of holding it for another couple of days while the day traders hike the SP for you to sell at its highs!!!

I am sure you will be back - once you have got addicted to its fast pace in good and bad times you cannot let go. 

See you back here in a while.


----------



## roland (4 December 2007)

nikki, I am not so much of a technical trader, candlesticks are something I use when the power goes out 

Playing the dips and peaks triples my returns (maybe more - but who's counting) I'm looking for a 5% retrace from today before I'm back. Good luck in welcoming the .60's!


----------



## kerosam (5 December 2007)

hi everyone,

did a scan few days ago with Ellis Big Money Index & it appears there were 'insto' buyers or lucky investors  buying when ADY was 42.5cts.

i think some news round the corner.

rdgs
dummy (sold ADY when they were 14.5cts few months ago)


----------



## nikki (6 December 2007)

Hi! Kerosam. Are you able to expand on your comment!

Particularly, what is the Ellis Big Money Index! I did a google on it and could not figure it out.

Very smart institution if they were buying at .42 rather than .53 like Meryll Lynch.


----------



## kerosam (6 December 2007)

i use the software IC Investor... it has a number of indicators & one of them is call EMBI. Apparently, it picks up any big money in a stock if there's one. i'm not sure whether that inidcator is in any software. here's the link: http://www.investorcentre.com.au/ICI.html

note: me no aint salesman for the software but IC Investor support team like referrals.


----------



## nikki (10 December 2007)

what was today about? can anyone tell me what happened? 

ADY put out the best announcement i have read for a while and the SP drops by 4% after having gone up to .52 

Hmmmmm, they have EIA for the life of the life of the project; confidence in the long-term nature of the project to go out to tender; the plant is operating ahead of schedule, etc., etc.,

Roland - here comes your 0.41 to come back in? See you down there if you still care about ADY after today.


----------



## AussiePaul72 (10 December 2007)

nikki said:


> what was today about? can anyone tell me what happened?
> 
> ADY put out the best announcement i have read for a while and the SP drops by 4% after having gone up to .52
> 
> ...




My guess is that traders that got in on ADY on its last trace back to low 40's sold on todays good news. Thats the only reason i can see for the trace back today - it certainly wasn't due to the good announcment!
Hopefully we are getting rid of all the sellers in the 48-50 range and things might move forward. I really think that once ADY breaks the shackles it may really run as the lithium project is looking great and everything going to plan at present.


----------



## kerosam (11 December 2007)

mmm... i tot its a typical case of 'buy on the rumour, sell on the news'... awaiting for the next opportunity to buy in again.


----------



## rub92me (11 December 2007)

Big sell off again today in the late afternoon with some big player(s) dumping 2 million shares in 10 minutes. Looks like we need a bit more patience for this to return and stay above 50 cents.


----------



## kerosam (16 December 2007)

ADY makes an apperance in Top Resource stocks 2008- An australian investor's guide to 100 Leading mining, energy & resource stock (Wrightbooks).

note: i don't hold ADY anymore


----------



## villemus (17 December 2007)

ADY Dropped another 7% today....

anyone know what happened?  

I don't see any bad announcements.


----------



## AussiePaul72 (17 December 2007)

villemus said:


> ADY Dropped another 7% today....
> 
> anyone know what happened?
> 
> I don't see any bad announcements.




IMO I think it was just a result of the significant down day across the market. I'm holding and if i had some spare cash would be tempted to buy some more at 43c


----------



## Trader Paul (18 December 2007)

Hi folks,

ADY ..... expecting some positive news, around 19-20122007,
as 2 positive time cycles come into play and lift ADY off any
lows made today ..... 

happy days

  paul



=====


----------



## STRAT (18 December 2007)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> ADY ..... expecting some positive news, around 19-20122007,
> as 2 positive time cycles come into play and lift ADY off any
> ...



Hi Yogi/Paul. Thats good news. Topped up this morning ............................................


----------



## nikki (18 December 2007)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> ADY ..... expecting some positive news, around 19-20122007,
> as 2 positive time cycles come into play and lift ADY off any
> ...





wat da? 

what are positive time cycles? you have intrigued me with your predictive powers?

hmmmm - have to write more? hammered at .4 this morning. i wish i had the guts to have bought more because out of many small caps i watch i have the most confidence in this one for 2008?????


----------



## Trader Paul (18 December 2007)

Hi folks,

ADY ... nice hammer low made today, ahead of good news, expected
over the next couple of days ... 

Buy 438.1T  45      Sell 356.7T 45.5

Last 45.5   up 2.5    5.8%  3:58 pm

High 46.5
Open 42.5
Volume 24,940,430
Low 40
Prev. Close 43
Turnover $10,995,342

Good volume with a significant hammer candle ..... for cautious traders,
a close above the high of today's hammer will confirm today's low.

happy days

 paul



=====


----------



## yangxh (18 December 2007)

kerosam said:


> ADY makes an apperance in Top Resource stocks 2008- An australian investor's guide to 100 Leading mining, energy & resource stock (Wrightbooks).
> 
> note: i don't hold ADY anymore




kerosam, please give verifible source of your words.  Where did you get this?  It is certainly interesting to everyone here.


----------



## kerosam (19 December 2007)

i got the book from borders in the weekend. its a list of 100 resource companies in a book which expands (on one page) on their fundamentals.... and i'm afraid there is no 1cts to 49cts company in it  (ADY was above 50ct when at print).

have a look at your local good bookstore e.g angus & robertson, dymocks or borders.


----------



## AussiePaul72 (31 December 2007)

Hmmmmm .......interesting!! Did anyone else see what just went through?
After trading most of today below 0.44, all of a sudden a trade of 600,000 just went through at 0.44 (thats $264,000 worth!!) ... and then straight after that trades dropped back to 0.435.
A little out of my league of trading .... wonder what triggered that? Ideas?


----------



## nikki (31 December 2007)

hey aussiepaul, happy new years!!

i wasnt watching today but it is interesting because the same thing happened the last trading day as well (was it friday or thursday). the difference, the 600000 came in the closing auction.

there has been a lot of cross trades and big purchases but then a lot of big dumps too - so not sure what to make of any of this???

wait and see i guess!!

cheers


----------



## rub92me (3 January 2008)

I think we're nearing make or break from a short term perspective. Will it break up or down, that's the question (2b or not 2b?) :


----------



## rub92me (9 January 2008)

Looks like break down now - the overall market sentiment not helping of course. Still, relatively low volume so it doesn't look like everybody is rushing for the exits just yet and could bounce back quite quickly. Would like to see some further news about timing of the demerger, progress with the Lithium production and sales contracts, etc. to give this a lift again before it breaks down too far.


----------



## nikki (9 January 2008)

hi rub92me,

i am continuously surprised by the games that are played with this stock. two days ago someone was manipulating sellers to accumulate at .415 and today there is hardly any buyers bidding at .39 and .395. obviously the experienced ady traders are expecting a sharp sell off to accumulate.

i am surprised that there are traders out there still selling @ 0.4. i assume they are selling at a loss at this stage???

i entered ady late and so i am sitting at a loss but believe in the fundamentals in the current changing market and think that in 12 months this stock should beat the XJO and XAO if i can cope with the volatility.

are you still holding or waiting to buy back in? cheers, N


----------



## rub92me (9 January 2008)

nikki said:


> hi rub92me,
> 
> are you still holding or waiting to buy back in? cheers, N



I bought most of my holding below 9 cents with a 3-5 year view. The only thing that changed that original plan is the demerger. I may redistribute my investment in the component parts depending on how the market values these parts initially. I've become used to the sometimes extreme volatility of this stock and am now almost immune to it. 
I have traded the volatility with smaller parcels though and plan to do so again if the opportunity arises. Hasn't broken down completely yet in my view though, so still on the sidelines. If it does break down, it could go down as far as mid to low thirties though based on how I interpret the chart, but would expect/hope for a quick rebound from there.


----------



## nikki (9 January 2008)

rub92me said:


> I bought most of my holding below 9 cents with a 3-5 year view. The only thing that changed that original plan is the demerger. I may redistribute my investment in the component parts depending on how the market values these parts initially. I've become used to the sometimes extreme volatility of this stock and am now almost immune to it.
> I have traded the volatility with smaller parcels though and plan to do so again if the opportunity arises. Hasn't broken down completely yet in my view though, so still on the sidelines. If it does break down, it could go down as far as mid to low thirties though based on how I interpret the chart, but would expect/hope for a quick rebound from there.




in that case, selling for you would be expensive with the amount of CGT you would need to pay. i for one have collected such huge volumes of losses that i do not think i am worried about CGT on any trade??? 

although ady is holding .4 the selling interest is remarkably strong. do you think those little parcels that are sold @ .395 are meant to be triggers for stop losses?

the last time it went below 0.4 it took a while to get past that resistance. lets hope it does not have to worry about 0.4 as resistance?????

best wishes, N


----------



## nikki (9 January 2008)

what a terrible closing auction considering the weighted average for the day was .4011. it did not take many shares to close the SP @ .395

positives: only a few large volumes were sold into .395 otherwise most of the trades were purchases of .4 - so support above .4 is still strong!! the volumes sold into .395 would not have been high enough to trigger stop losses though!

the rsi is the lowest it has been for this stock (except that exceptional day in august) - so, i would expect a buying signal on that alone? however, selling volume above .4 is exceptionally high given the oversold signals i am getting?

hmmmm - lets hope the DJIA gives us a break for a week and PT releases a couple of good announcements.

even though i am holding as an investor i have not enjoyed the downtrend?


----------



## rub92me (11 January 2008)

I think stop loss orders have started to kick in now - low of 36 cents today (so far? ). Hoping for a better week next week, or an opportunity for the long term believers if it spikes down again as it did in August.


----------



## skating101 (11 January 2008)

ive been in since october at between 34 and 37 cents and watching this drop is depressing especially seeing as it has been hit a lot harder than the market in general and seeing as this company should have limited exposure to the subprime lending crisis i guess im waiting till it climbs again then im out.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (11 January 2008)

I'm waiting for exhaustion selling on a large kangaroo tail like we saw in August then I'm back in. The fundamentals on the Li are stuff that dreams are made of.


----------



## pk_wasp (11 January 2008)

Don't forget about the fundamentals of Potash too! 

Everyone focuses Li, but Potash is rising too..


----------



## MS+Tradesim (11 January 2008)

Yep. I've been following ADY for about 3-4yrs. As a diversified chemical producer it will do very well. A number of projects all at significant value add points. I was waiting until after the demerger to get onboard again but if there is a nice selloff that will do fine as an entry point.

Interestingly one of the best performing stocks in USA in 07 was a fertiliser producer.


----------



## nikki (11 January 2008)

the august sell-off or panic was caused very much by that the closure of the futures exchange rather than normal trading behaviour. 

so, whilst the potential exists for us to revisit the august lows this move downwards seems to be taking a long time 

these prices are a bargain for ADY and i think anyone who was smart to get off at the high 0.5 and waited to re-enter is being rewarded handsomely.

MS+Tradesim, do you think there would have been an advantage waiting till after demerger before entering ADY or RLL - assuming the SP was trading @ .5 before it?


----------



## MS+Tradesim (11 January 2008)

This time around I'm thinking I'll see exhaustion selling across a number of stocks as first, the panicky exit once USA recession reality hits in, then second the smart buyers will step in when enough is enough and push prices back up. Historically, the US market falls on average 28% in a recession. I think it would be naive to assume that won't happen this time and that such a fall won't affect Australian equities.

nikki, 

I exited ADY soon after the demerger ann. as I could not price the two new companies. I had originally been holding ADY on a target of $2+ (pre-consolidation) in 2009 onwards. Once the cost base for the demerged cos. is known and I can assign new values and figure cash flows etc, I will be in a position to price and then buy accordingly. Until that info is known, there is too much uncertainty for me right now. On the other hand in a large sell-off, it won't matter much as I will be able to enter at a great discount and profit whatever happens.


----------



## roland (15 January 2008)

OK, I'm back on board. Since selling out at .50, I am happy to grab some now at .335. Time to hold and wait now


----------



## nikki (15 January 2008)

Hey Roland, welcome back.. . . . I wish i had exited at .5 or above when you probably did.

Hindsight is a good thing?


----------



## rub92me (15 January 2008)

roland said:


> OK, I'm back on board. Since selling out at .50, I am happy to grab some now at .335. Time to hold and wait now



Still on the sidelines myself. The way this has been going down (steadily) leads me to think that it could go down a bit further before it turns for the better. Like MS+ Tradesim I would ideally want to see a quick sharp sell-off on high (15 million plus) volume. It doesn't always happen that way of course so I could miss the boat. If it drops to 30 cents over the next few days then I may get tempted regardless and jump in with a trade. We should see some news soon on the Lithium, however in the past good news seemed to be anticipated in a rising shareprice before the announcements happened...


----------



## MS+Tradesim (15 January 2008)

With Citi and Merrill Lynch reporting massive writedowns as well as some key economic indicators in the USA due this week, I believe we are not far off some very painful price slashing. I really hope you guys aren't hurt. I am however, looking forward to a juicy entry.


----------



## nikki (15 January 2008)

MS+Tradesim,

i am still holding (very long-term ) and not suffering in the short term (too much anyway).

my take is that if the DJIA breaks 12500 we should all take cover and i might even consider selling @ a loss because the next real support is in the 11000's (bottom ranges).

it is consolidating between 12500-12925 at the moment and i would not be buying anything (short term) unless it breaks resistance @ 12925.

so, good luck and maybe you can have my shares if the DJIA breaks support @ 12500


----------



## skating101 (15 January 2008)

This is pretty insane, no change in fundamental but more than 30 percent fall in less than a month is this stock still a good prospect for the mid term i.e. 1 year


----------



## rub92me (16 January 2008)

How come ADY is not trading? I don't see any ASX announcement. Good timing for a trading halt.  Unusual to be PRE_NR for so long.


----------



## yangxh (16 January 2008)

rub92me said:


> How come ADY is not trading? I don't see any ASX announcement. Good timing for a trading halt.  Unusual to be PRE_NR for so long.




ady is rumoured to be close to signing a major deal with a Chinese steel maker according to afr.  this might be the reason for the trading halt.  it will be interesting to see the release.

also, investers should wait for new ore price outcome in Feb/Mar.  it should be significant.


----------



## rub92me (16 January 2008)

Hi yangxh, that would be good news indeed. What's puzzling though: if this rumour is about, why has the share price been pummeled lately along with (and even worse than) the rest of the market?


----------



## yangxh (16 January 2008)

rub92me said:


> Hi yangxh, that would be good news indeed. What's puzzling though: if this rumour is about, why has the share price been pummeled lately along with (and even worse than) the rest of the market?




hi, rub92me, I guess the day/short traders dumped their holdings along with the market.  It is all about the fear.  But, good news (expected and unexpected) will come soon such as this trading halt (this is unexpected).  Ore price, and ady scheduled activities will bring ady share price back soon.  Look at the top 20 shareholders, they control about 50% of the all shares.  They are not selling.


----------



## rub92me (16 January 2008)

Amidst all the doom and gloom in the markets, I found something to take our minds off the short term woes and think about the longer term. The below article gives yet another boost to the potential bright future of Lithium in batteries. The timing of ADY to become a major Lithium producer certainly couldn't be much better. 


> Stanford Report, December 18, 2007
> Nanowire battery can hold 10 times the charge of existing lithium-ion battery
> 
> BY DAN STOBER
> ...


----------



## roland (17 January 2008)

ADY in preopen. Just waiting for the news release to become available. Fingers crossed. Hope it's good


----------



## roland (17 January 2008)

Here is the release - looking good 

17 January 2008
Company Announcement Office
Australian Securities Exchange Limited
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
HIGHLIGHTS
- Admiralty is close to concluding 10 years sales agreement and funding package with
total minimum sales of 23.5 million tonnes, at 50% share of all excess production and
a loan package.
- New 100% owned subsidiary established in Chile.
- Interim FOB benchmark price increase to US $51.78 per tonne FOB, a 13% price
increase, until 2008 CVRD benchmark price announced.
- 2008 shipping contract for balance of WISCO CFR 2006 sales shipments less by
TFS Freight Services.
The board of directors of Admiralty is pleased to confirm it is close to concluding a 10 years
contract for 50% of its iron ore production from its joint venture in Cia Minera Santa BÃ¡rbara
in Chile. The other 50% has already been allocated to WISCO, Wugung Iron Steel, China’s
second largest steel producer. Contract negotiations with WISCO are being finalised around
the MOU signed in September 2007.
Admiralty is in an advanced stage of discussions with a number of parties and these
negotiations are continuing. The successful bidder is required to accept the security
arrangements.With one key buyer, legal sign off on contracts has been obtained by both
sides. Part of the iron ore package is for the buyer to assist Admiralty obtain from one of
three major trading banks interested, a total funding package of approximately US $40
million, which is the amount required to meet our short term expansion plan.
The Board has a clear preference for debt over equity at this stage, and it does not wish to
dilute shareholders with a major equity placement.
The Board confirms there are negotiations with Rizhao Steel and three other companies,
from which Admiralty will choose one. The Board wants also state the tone of the
negotiations which have a fair degree of volatility at the moment because another buyer is
involved. There may be a small placement in the iron ore sales package to accommodate
the strategic interests of two iron ore clients at a premium to the market.
Admiralty Resources Chile Limited
As a result of concluding the acquisition of a further 10% of Cia. Minera Santa BÃ¡rbara, the
Board has decided to establish its own corporate entity in Chile. Michael Clarke, Managing
Director of Admiralty Resources NL, located in Chile, is currently setting up the new office for
this operation. There are a number of key benefits of implementing this new entity, including
the cost of the loan to Cia. Minera Santa BÃ¡rbara.
Admiralty has provided interest bearing loan to Cia. Minera Santa BÃ¡rbara of approximately
US $22 million and this will be increased to approximately US $60 million in 2008 for
production expansion to achieve the next milestone of 4 million tonnes per annum.
Shipping contract for WISCO 2006 CFR Sales Contract
Admiralty and Cia. Minera Santa BÃ¡rbara signed a sales agreement with WISCO in January
2007 for 17 shipments of iron ore on a CFR basis. Six of these shipments were delivered in
2007. The contract was renegotiated with four shipments to take place in early 2008 and the
balance using the Panamax size port when it is completed.
CFS Services Director, Nick van der Hoeven, negotiated before shipment contract on behalf
of Admiralty.
Yours sincerely,
Phillip Thomas
Executive Director


----------



## rub92me (17 January 2008)

roland, looks like you timed your re-entry into ADY well  Certainly looking likes the market likes the announcement!


----------



## MS+Tradesim (17 January 2008)

The ann is good news but some things to consider...

1) 4 shipments of iron ore early this year = not much income
2) Lots of debt to be taken on - not a problem if infrastructure is completed in a timely way and contracts are finalised. More delays here = larger interest cost
3) Demerger yet to happen and we still don't know how what cost base will be allocated to each share
4) Li infrastructure way behind schedule - I note in their latest presentation they're now saying Jun-Sep 09 before all ponds are ready. That is a big delay.
Previously it was meant to be 06, then late 08, now mid-late 09.

I have every confidence that it will pan out successfully but these delays mean share price doesn't grow smoothly = opportunity cost. I'm sitting on the sidelines all cashed up but I don't know how much to throw into ADY because of these factors. So back to my original plan, either sub-30c entry or wait till cost base for demerged companies to be announced.


----------



## roland (17 January 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> The ann is good news but some things to consider...
> 
> 1) 4 shipments of iron ore early this year = not much income
> 2) Lots of debt to be taken on - not a problem if infrastructure is completed in a timely way and contracts are finalised. More delays here = larger interest cost
> ...




sounds like a plan Tradesim - good luck. In the meantime, I am happy to trade the 10% swings, up or down I am happy


----------



## MS+Tradesim (17 January 2008)

Roland, exactly.

That's how it's done - trade our *own* plan. Doesn't matter how successfully someone else can trade a particular strategy, if it doesn't "fit" us, we will lose money.


----------



## nikki (17 January 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> The ann is good news but some things to consider...
> 
> 1) 4 shipments of iron ore early this year = not much income
> 2) Lots of debt to be taken on - not a problem if infrastructure is completed in a timely way and contracts are finalised. More delays here = larger interest cost
> ...




- if income & debt is an issue for ADY how are they affording to give 22 million to give to cia, to buy an extra 10% of cia, etc.,.
- do you think they could have gone faster given that the government has only just given them the EIA permit they need for production.
- they are planning to ramp up the iron ore production (by applying for an additional permit to the existing one) according to an email phil sent to someon on TS. extra $40 million will allow that to happen. getting buyers is obviously not an issue.
- this current iron ore contracts is imo only a taste of what the lithium tenders are likely to produce!!!!

i think the question for me is whether i can get a better entry into the stock than the current .35 of today - but then phil has the great ability to release a few announcements one after the other????


----------



## MS+Tradesim (17 January 2008)

Nikki,

Check the ann. again. ADY is borrowing money. It will then lend that to CMSB, no doubt at a higher interest rate than ADY is paying.

CMSB is ultimately servicing the loan and if it is making only 4 shipments early this year and then the balance of the original contract once the panamax port is complete then it will need to be very careful with its cash flow. I have no doubt it will, but these guys have a history of infrastructure delays, so any delays now mean more interest payments over time.

ADY itself will be fine if it can nail down a forward sales agreement on Li. That should service its debts. However, another thing I don't know is how the debt will be structered in the demerger. Will Rincon Lithium Ltd be responsible for anything? Unlikely, but who knows just yet.

Phil is an extremely canny businessman and I have no doubt he is putting together great things. But history also shows plenty of delays. My main point is I'm not getting too excited just yet. 

BTW, I've been following ADY for quite a few years and I know it nearly inside out. It's the closest thing I know of to a sure bet in a junior company. I'm just not prepared to commit funds yet if I think I can get a lower price. This is where Warren Buffet's margin of safety comes in. Why pay .35 if I think I can get it for .25-.30? The greater the margin between purchase price and intrinsic value, the less likely it is to fall further (assuming the fundamentals remain in place). On the other hand if it takes off in spite of the overall market negativity then I have no problem paying a higher price to pick up a quality growth company. 

I would absolutely not want anyone to be influenced by my opinion. This is just sharing how I'm thinking.


----------



## nikki (17 January 2008)

Hey MS, wasnt questioning how well you know ady - just your spin on their story.

Either way, it does not seem that the SP cares about news or fundamentals. It seems to be weighted down by the iron ore it is trying to ship out of Chile. 

I noticed companies selling potash were really knocked about yesterday in the US. Maybe the negative sentiment re potash has had an impact on sellers today??????


----------



## nikki (17 January 2008)

Hi MS,

the annoucement says they are providing 20million to cia as an interest bearing loan. i havnt looked at ADY's balance sheet for a while but can you not read that statement as ADY receiving interest for the money they are giving to cia. 

as you know, cia is not wholly owned by ADY so it has to give them an interest bearing loan??????

either way, i do not care that much as my losses at the moment in ADY have been adequately covered by ZYL zooooooooooooming today?

cheers to you.
N


----------



## MS+Tradesim (17 January 2008)

Hi Nikki,

I'm not being defensive. What I haven't said clearly is that I am a true believer in this company, but I'm trying to be realistic and objective about the share price.

Yes, ADY will be loaning the money to CMSB and will be paid interest on it. But where do you think ADY is getting the money from? The ann. says they will be approaching a bank, and possibly also raising money through a placement. They have already provided $22m to CMSB as interest bearing loan, and this will be increased to $60m over 2008.

So ADY borrows money from a bank (plus maybe a placement) and has to pay interest on it. ADY then lends money to CMSB who have to pay interest to ADY. CMSB need income to service that loan. Where's that coming from? Only 4 iron ore shipments due early this year. That will provide some cash-flow. Will it be sufficient? Depends on the size and term of the loan. CMSB also have a lot of wages and operating costs to pay. Where is all the money coming from? One possibility could be a forward sales agreement on part of the iron ore. But who knows for sure? Not me.

There are a lot of unanswered questions which are probably weighing on the share price. I'm confident Phil Thomas can pull it all together. Don't know about the new guy.


----------



## nikki (21 January 2008)

Am I missing something?

Can anyone tell me whether that annoucement was good, bad, ugly, fantastic, etc. I am at a loss figuring out ADY?? I understand downtrend and how not much can save the SP but this is getting ridiculous. . . .


----------



## rub92me (21 January 2008)

They got money on good terms and the price of iron ore is rising. Doesn't sound bad to me. :
I think people's moods are such that unless they announce a new cure for cancer nothing much will change at the moment. On a positive note, the shareprice is starting to make higher lows after sustained selling over the past 3 trading days.


----------



## nikki (21 January 2008)

rub92me said:


> They got money on good terms and the price of iron ore is rising. Doesn't sound bad to me. :
> I think people's moods are such that unless they announce a new cure for cancer nothing much will change at the moment. On a positive note, the shareprice is starting to make higher lows after sustained selling over the past 3 trading days.




Hi Rub92me, i thought there were lot of good things in the announcement & totally agree with your sentiments:

- JORC for new tenements comming up soon with potential to create new mines in three areas.
- 0.7 for ADY as option in case of default given by the institution who also does research on them.
- the funding arrangements for the IO businness is clearly there which is what PT needs to make the demerger work. 

blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

technically re SP, you are right. had not seen the higher low and might be the reason why all the buyers suddenly turned up at the sub .3 price???? i am curious however: who is selling all these shares and would they be selling at a loss???

i really do not care for the SP because i think ADY is heading in a very positive direction and only watch it to see what the broader market thinks of the fundamentals of the company (perhaps a stupid thing to do when the market is down 2%)!!!


----------



## MS+Tradesim (21 January 2008)

What struck me as odd was Merrill Lynch buying @78m shares for average price around @0.52 and then unloading the majority of them. Methinks orders came from top down to lighten their holdings across the board because of their own cashflow problems. "We need capital. Sell! Sell! Sell!" BTW, I bought a few today, but still think we still might see lower.


----------



## nikki (21 January 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> What struck me as odd was Merrill Lynch buying @78m shares for average price around @0.52 and then unloading the majority of them. Methinks orders came from top down to lighten their holdings across the board because of their own cashflow problems. "We need capital. Sell! Sell! Sell!" BTW, I bought a few today, but still think we still might see lower.




MS, do you think Merrill sold down. They never appeared on the top 20 list which tells me that someone from the top 20 must have used ADY as collateral for something else they were doing.  . . . . . 

Welcome back to ADY - let's hope you buying gives it a good kick in the but back up to .69


----------



## MS+Tradesim (21 January 2008)

Nikki,

There are still motivated sellers by the look of it so I've only picked up about a 1/4 of what I want.

Merrill became a substantial holder 2/11/07 and ceased to be one 24/12/07.
The disclosures don't make sense to me...make of it what you will.


----------



## rub92me (22 January 2008)

After the stock market meltdown in Australia/Asia yesterday and Europe overnight, I'm expecting panic selling today across the board, at least in the morning. Last time this happened, ADY shareprice momentarily dipped to 20 cents. I'm targeting to buy ADY today, and wouldn't be surprised if the price dips below 25 cents.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (22 January 2008)

I hear you Rub. That's what I'm looking for. Europe got caned overnight. There will be red everywhere today.


----------



## rub92me (22 January 2008)

It's gone down hard as expected, but not the full out high volume panic selling yet that I was anticipating. Maybe when Commsec gets back up we'll get another wave. Buy orders at 21 cents and 20 cents. I'll stop watching this now


----------



## skating101 (22 January 2008)

wheres my freaking shotgun, nothing like losing thousands of dollars in 3 months especially when there is the company you've invested in has little exposure to the actual CAUSE of the market downturn. Damn I hate traders.


----------



## roland (22 January 2008)

oh well, couldn't resist ....picked up a bunch of ADY at .23 - sold something else at a loss to afford it.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (22 January 2008)

Good on ya Roland. I'm looking to get in at 22.5. Looked likely earlier. Dunno now, might have to go 23 and be done with it.

On the other hand, I'm also thinking if US tanks tonite then sub-20 is on the cards.

EDIT: Hmmm....big buyers stepping in now.


----------



## skating101 (22 January 2008)

Im starting to rethink my position on this, anyone think there is any impetus to sell now? Everyone is expecting the dow to plummet overnight and hence tomorrow morning take the all ords with it along with this puppy


----------



## techtrader (22 January 2008)

I've been thinking the exact same thing. This stock is down 25% !!!!
On the other hand maybe there will be a recovery in the next couple days.


----------



## skating101 (22 January 2008)

The dow futures is giving the indication that a recovery is unlikely, at least in the next few days, I might sell up and then buy up after the dip but as always DYOR


----------



## skating101 (22 January 2008)

sold @ 21c looking to get back in tomorrow at around 16c - 18c, this is pretty ghei there are articles on yahoo talking about a crash like black monday tomorrow lol


----------



## nikki (22 January 2008)

good luck skating 101. you do realise that if the XAO and XJO goes any lower the correction will be a 1 in 20/30 year event. . . . . . selling at absolute lows would be just as fearful for me because of the strong potential of a strong bounce.

i am with you roland, i thought of selling other stuff as well to buy more ADY at these prices but ??????


----------



## rub92me (23 January 2008)

My buy at 21 cents got filled, but 20 cents never got hit and I don't think it will today either. Looking forward to a bit of green in ADY today after a dismal couple of weeks.


----------



## techtrader (23 January 2008)

I think yesterdays low of 0.21 was the lowest that stock is going to see . Oh well skating don't feel to bad better then losing all your money.


----------



## roland (23 January 2008)

ADY looking to bounce a little - pre open depth is looking very nice. I am not unhappy to have gotten yesterday's parcel.


----------



## roland (23 January 2008)

Very nice news, up nearly 40%

Admiralty Resources NL
ACN 010 195 972
GPO Box 517, Melbourne 3001
Level 14, 200 Queen Street, Melbourne
[t] 61-3-96701838
[f] 61-3-9670 1898
www.ady.com.au
STRONG RESPONSE TO US$50M LITHIUM TENDER
13 COMPANIES SELECTED FOR SHORTLIST
The board of directors of Admiralty Resources is pleased to announce that Rincon Lithium
Limited, currently a wholly owned subsidiary of Admiralty Resources NL is developing one of
the world’s largest lithium, potash, sodium sulphate and sodium carbonate production
facilities in the world.
Rincon has had a substantially higher level of interest than expected in response to its
tender to sell 10% of its final production level of 17,000 tonnes of lithium products per
annum, per year for ten years over the period June 2009 to June 2019. Interest has been
received from commodity traders, battery manufacturers, financial commodity dealers, and
traditional minerals wholesalers around the globe.
More than 70 companies applied, and the shortlist has been reduced to 13 companies. All
the finalists have signed or submitted a final version of the confidentiality agreement.
The tender covers:
● Supply of 10% of production for 10 years. The successful tenderer will make a
prepayment in mid 2008 of the profit margin, expected to be between US$40m and
US$60m for the 99.0+% lithium carbonate product.
● An exclusive agency agreement for the sale of Rincon products in Asia, covering
40% of production
● An exclusive agency agreement for the sale of Rincon products in the Americas,
covering 10% of production
● The balance will be sold by Rincon’s sales and marketing team.


----------



## skating101 (23 January 2008)

nikki said:


> good luck skating 101. you do realise that if the XAO and XJO goes any lower the correction will be a 1 in 20/30 year event. . . . . . selling at absolute lows would be just as fearful for me because of the strong potential of a strong bounce.
> 
> i am with you roland, i thought of selling other stuff as well to buy more ADY at these prices but ??????




Hey nikki yea you can imagine how I'm feeling now, all the talk of doom and gloom got to me and I really didn't expect the fed to step up early yesterday. I'm really not all that sure what I'm gonna do now. I'm expecting a dip tomorrow so I might go long when that comes along or I might even just wait it out, there is still a lot more doom and gloom to come which could give me an entry. You must be pretty happy though lol


----------



## nikki (23 January 2008)

skating101 said:


> Hey nikki yea you can imagine how I'm feeling now, all the talk of doom and gloom got to me and I really didn't expect the fed to step up early yesterday. I'm really not all that sure what I'm gonna do now. I'm expecting a dip tomorrow so I might go long when that comes along or I might even just wait it out, there is still a lot more doom and gloom to come which could give me an entry. You must be pretty happy though lol




hi skating101, i agree the doom and gloom stuff is hard to deal with. i was looking for a break of 5000 before i considered selling anything.

look for the index holding onto 5450 (XJO & no XAO). if it does this is not a dead cat bounce and personally i would buy more today in the hope of making something short term.

good luck to all. today's announcement re lithium shows the potential of RLL for so many years to come and I am so pleased to be holding ADY.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (23 January 2008)

I picked up another 1/4 of my position yesterday. Now just waiting to see which way it goes before filling the rest. Great announcement. I'm even thinking about leaving some of my other picks small to load up on ADY again.


----------



## nikki (23 January 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> I picked up another 1/4 of my position yesterday. Now just waiting to see which way it goes before filling the rest. Great announcement. I'm even thinking about leaving some of my other picks small to load up on ADY again.




have to say, i was surprised that PT made this announcement. not complaining. i assumed it was to be done in february after the demerger. although, he does say that the demerger will not happen until march so maybe he wanted to let the market know how well things were going!!!

the income RLL is going to generate is huge and given the costs of productions it seems we could even be earning dividends in a few years


----------



## semochen (30 January 2008)

hi everyone...

just want a few opinions on the valuations of the 2 companies after the demerger

I'm pretty confident that it's worth a lot more than it is now.. but the fact that it's come down all the way from 50c not so long ago.. and staying down here is a bit of a worry. Of course the market is to blame for...?

As of the lithium side, they'll be producing 17000tonnes/year, assuming 99% purity will be at $6000USD/tonne = around 100million/year. Given they currently have around 1000M shares.. will be EPS of 10c where current SP is at 25c??
This will increase if they produce better than 99% or if lithium price goes up (as per ADY NOV2007 presentations)

The recent announcement for prepayment of 10% x 10years for $50M... therefore a large discount for the prepayment??? Am I reading this right?

As of the iron side... does anyone have ideas on its earnings? 

Help appreciated


----------



## rub92me (31 January 2008)

semochen said:


> hi everyone...
> 
> just want a few opinions on the valuations of the 2 companies after the demerger
> 
> ...



The calculation for Lithium is roughly the same as I have, but need to add about $10 million profit for the Potash. Prepayment for 10% is for the profit margin rather than the revenue, hence the lower amount. It is essentially a hedge and a prepayment and in return the rights to sell another 50% of production. 
For the iron ore I'm projecting about $20 million profit for financial year 2009/2010 if they meet their expansion targets.


----------



## semochen (31 January 2008)

Thanks rub92me~

Needed some reassurance on this one

Figures look good to me.. and the recent announcements are not bad either

What's worrying me is the demerger being so close in view, valuations should be well under way for many investers.. but the sp not showing any signs of excitement (buy on the rumour) as I would have expected.


----------



## kerosam (31 January 2008)

i am looking to get back in again. but today it appears to break thru the 25.5cts support, near 10 day MA but not above price... strange thing is RSI shows quite oversold... anyone reading these signals as well or otherwise??

anyhow, will monitor this one very closely.


----------



## roland (31 January 2008)

kerosam said:


> i am looking to get back in again. but today it appears to break thru the 25.5cts support, near 10 day MA but not above price... strange thing is RSI shows quite oversold... anyone reading these signals as well or otherwise??
> 
> anyhow, will monitor this one very closely.




I think trying to anaylse ADY in the current overall climate is going to be quite difficult and your comments are appreciated

Trying to seperate real chart data amongst the termoil of the general market is a skill that is beyond my experience, but the news coming out of ADY is all positive and I feel that the SP is lower than it should be. I'm still in positive territory with ADY and if the SP drops further, then I may sell something else to get some more.

All looking good in MYO


----------



## nikki (2 February 2008)

I totally agree Roland. 

I think what we have been seeing is short term traders making the most out of the bullishness that exists amongst the informed in ADY.  . . . . . . . I think we should see a massive jump in ADY's SP on monday and if not i will start to worry because i cannot see how this uptrend in the indexes will continue for much longer (i.e. lucky if the DJIA makes it to 12900 before reversing backwards to retest 12000) .  . . . . .  . Which will have a great impact on ADY . . . . . . . . . . when our index was @ 6000 points (will get there on monday i think) ADY was trading in the range of 0.33 - 0.36.

So, i took the opportunity to buy more ADY last week only to be called brave by someone i know but i figure that it is so undervalued @ the moment even when one campares it to the other bargains that are available amongst the small and micro caps . . . . . .

Good luck to all of you holding ADY. . . . . .


----------



## semochen (5 February 2008)

6.3 earthquake in far northern-Chili/southern Peru region..

don't know what effects this has on ADY..

the Iron sites & port is in north Chili, a few hundred Km away

and Rincon in north Argentina near Chile border.. so shouldn't be a problem


----------



## roland (5 February 2008)

I don't think ADY has any infrastructure that's over 6 feet high. (joke only). Could stir up the brine ponds a little


----------



## lyang (6 February 2008)

Hi

Just browsing through www.ady.com.au and came across the following on
http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/6974ce5ac660610b44d9b9fed0ff9548.pdf which was posted on 5/2/08 :-

TOPSTOCKS - Question to Executive Director 
Share price is low. 
Top 20 list indicates that perhaps some holders have sold out. The various Option holders/sellers have long been and gone, so it seems improbable that they are the cause. Despite three quality announcements, we have seen continued selling. Now, it would be fair to suggest that the recent issues over credit, plus general market conditions would affect the share price. However, a 50% reduction, in spite of good news, is a little hard to swallow. And, it is generally not the case with stocks that may be considered 'peers' of ADY. Question: Is someone lending shares to enable short selling? 
This facility is not generally available via CFD, but some have noted that ANZ are allowing shorts on ADY via a specific type of instrument which requires the purchase/sale of other shares - ie., some sort of 'balanced' scenario. 
If you have any thoughts that you are allowed to offer, I'm sure they would be much appreciated. 
Shareholder 
ADMIRALTY RESOURCES - Answer from Phillip Thomas to Shareholders 

I have checked the trades every day for the past two weeks to see if there is any short selling, that is people who have a sold position and no matching bought position. There are none that I can find. I think there is a bit of imagination going on here regarding the ANZ short facility as I doubt whether ANZ would be bothered lending ADY stock from other large holders (and I know them all) - try it yourself with 
BHP for 100,000 shares from a stock lender and see how much it costs you and the interest charges - better off to use CFDs, which do not cover Admiralty. Macquarie will not margin lend against ADY. It is only UBS, ANZ, Merrill Lynch, Opes-Prime and some of their wholesale stockbroker clients. 
Even if they do short the stock, it only takes one institution to buy $20 worth of stock as has happened before and they are dead in the market, with no liquidity via futures, CFDs options, etc. Admiralty is an announcement driven stock and the market is wai ting for me to announce the two 10 year sales contracts worth at 46 million tonnes total at $60 per tonne - $2.7 billion and $40m finance. 
However, we are not rushing as we have another strategy which might give us a better outcome soon and so we are working on this - if the market thinks we are worth AUD $270m today then so be it. 
The market cap does not make sense as our partner Wyndham just sold a 70% interest in two deposits with 11 drill holes, no JORC, one existing mine for $74 millionto JSW Steel (Jindal subsidiary). So 10% was worth $7.4million (US). They stumped up $52m yet we only paid $26m for 60% they paid $52m for 70% and they are just down the road. 
In contrast, we have an existing mine, 90 million tonne JORC, shipped 210,000 tonnes, two keen bidders (and about 100 more for the ore), three port strategies (he has one which we have tied up for 2/3rds of the month for the next 10 years) so the asset alone has to be worth US$200m+ (we paid $13mUS for the previous 10%) which is 20 cents a share. Even if you assume the life of the mine is 46m tonnes and it is s worth $750m net profit at a discount rate of 12% over ten years, it makes the 
share price 75 cents x p/e 8 = $6.00. You might work it out another way but this is a rule of thumb. 

The reason why the share price is not six dollars is because we have a few tasks to 
complete which we are working on: 
- Sales contracts 
- JORC 
- Ports 
- Expanded production to 4 million tonnes which is our environmental permit 
amount at Japonesa Mine but over time the price will gravitate upwards because the market won't allow the arbitrage. 
Then add the lithium business, the lead-zinc at Bulman upside and so on. 
Share volumes have been low - so there is little momentum. Now that I am back from 
leave more information will be disseminated. 
Kind regards 
Phil Thomas 
Phillip Thomas 
Managing Director - Rincon Lithium Limited 
Executive Director - Admiralty Resources NL 
Director - Cia Minera Santa Barbara

As an absolute amateur in these matters, would appreciate it if somebody could enlighten me on PT's valuation of $6 SP for what I think are the CMSB assets?
Thanks


----------



## semochen (6 February 2008)

I think his valuation should be $0.60

The 750m profit to me should be divided over the 10 years..
Divided by roughly 1000m shares = 7.5cps
x PE of 8 = 60c

and that is if everything he states goes on plan

Don't think there's any way this thing is worth $6.00 atm... 
if it is PT should be buying big time himself

Don't know if it's an error he's made, or he did it on purpose (if i'm right of course) either way it worries me though

But anyway.. still is good value to me atm


----------



## lyang (6 February 2008)

Thanks Semochen. Makes that much more sense.  But with the SP atm at 24c??? 
Would be interesting to see what the market makes of the impending demerger.


----------



## STRAT (6 February 2008)

lyang said:


> Hi
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Hi there lyang. I suspect ADY will have red cheeks over this one as the math does not add up. Based on the info in the email alone it should have read 60c 

geez you gotta be quick around here lol


----------



## rub92me (7 February 2008)

The calculation makes no sense whatsoever imho. 
First he talks about a total sales revenue for 46 million tonnes over 10 years which equals 2.7 billion, i.e. 270 million per year. They won't actually be able to produce and ship that much annually for at least the next 2-3 years so actual sales value won't be close to that for a while.
P/E should be taken over revenue not profit, so the net profit is irrelevant.
Valuing a company on just the P/E is a bit ludicrous and I'm sure that as an actuary PT is well aware of that. So I think he's just stirring the pot a bit with the Top Stocks interview; I'm surprised ADY put in on their site though.


----------



## rub92me (11 February 2008)

Finally looking like some action on the ADY front. Promising volume in the first 2 hours and steadily chewing through the sellers. If the volume keeps up we may finally get a leg up.


----------



## roland (13 February 2008)

Nice little run today on ADY. Should make all of us brine/swamp lovers happy 

I just love it when I read the side of all my batteries Li-ion!


----------



## rub92me (13 February 2008)

Nice run indeed, with good volume to boot. Long may it continue; it still has an awful lot of catching up to do to get back to where it was only a couple of months ago.


----------



## nikki (13 February 2008)

Support was incredibly strong around 0.3 today. Sellers were very disciplined IMO. I am amazed that our index has lost so much ground in the past few days and yet ADY has managed to do so well. 

The volume of shares traded going down from 0.4 - 0.205 was very small with a lot probably exchanging hands amongst the same group of people. As a result, i assume the move from 0.3-0.4 will be strong and fast.

I suspect that Phil will use a couple of trading halts for 2/3 days to bring more attention to the stock once he has the paper work ready for the demerger. 

I also think that many traders will dump before demerger because of the uncertainty of keeping it through that next phase. . . I am just glad we are not testing the lows at the moment anyway?

Cheers to you all.


----------



## roland (14 February 2008)

Another positive announcement:



14 February 2008
Company Announcements Office
ASX Limited
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
RINCON SALAR UPDATE
Headlines
One tonne of lithium Carbonate produced at high grade from pilot plant
Monthly pilot plant production expected to be 10 tonnes per annum before expansion
Project finance proceeding according to timetable
Tender process for agency and sale of 10% lithium products completed first phase
The Board of Directors is delighted to announce that:
• The pilot plant at the Rincon was successfully commissioned on 20 December 2007
and is now operating above expectations for production volumes, with the first
production of lithium carbonate produced on 25 January 2008.
• This one tonne of lithium carbonate has been produced with a purity of 99.0+%
exceeding the expectations from previous research indicating that future processing
will enable production of high purity lithium products.
• The production boreholes from where the brines are extracted are performing above
their expected production capacity and have the properties to yield four times the
required volume for a plant in full production at 17,000 tonnes per annum.
• The Rio Grande Salar that was recently acquired is now entering into production and
we expect the first commercial output of sodium sulphate, a major input into the
production process, in May 2008 in advance of our scheduled production date.
• The pilot plant will reach a steady state continuous production in early April of 10
tonnes per month as planned giving the successful commissioning, we are
immediately implementing our expansion to a full size plant by trebling the size of the
ponds in the next three months.
• The initial operating costs which have not yet reached optimisation have been
contained to well below the market price for the products.
• Basic engineering for the full-scale plant is now complete and detailed engineering
and quotations for major items is underway.
• We continue to plan for full plant production in 2009.
• Project financing continues with legal diligence and engineering due diligence
underway.
• The company is implementing a strategic program for the identification and acquisition
of further mineral resources in the region. This project is being managed by Dr
Alonso.
We are now investigating by-products from lithium and magnesium hydroxide production with
the view to increase earnings from the existing production.
Cia Minera Santa Barbara
The first ship for 2008, is scheduled to arrive on 20th February to deliver a cargo of
approximately 43,600 tonnes to WISCO, our client in China. This is the first of four shipments
in the first half of calendar 2008 under the 2006 Sales and purchase agreement. We are
expecting to finalise the 2008 agreement shortly. The value of this shipment is US$3.248
million.
Demerger
The demerger continues but due to timing of expert reporting and applications for waivers to
ASX and ASIC, the timetable has been deferred for one month, with the EGM due to be held
in April 2008.
Yours sincerely,
Phillip Thomas
Executive Director
[e] pthomas@ady.com.au


----------



## rub92me (14 February 2008)

The price action today is very similar to what happened in late june last year. Gap up followed by collapse due to lack of volume. See posts #69 onwards in this thread. For history to repeat (with rapid sp rise over the next 2 weeks) we'll need a lot of volume. Overall market sentiment is a bit different now though, so we could see more of a tendency by daytraders locking in gains early. Happy with the rise so far this week though. :


----------



## nikki (14 February 2008)

Rub92me, That is hillarious. I went back to those discussions and had to remind myself that what i was reading was last year? Let's hope PT can engineer the same series of announcements this time around?

Although I am not looking to sell, today's agressive selling at the close makes me think we are going sideways until PT can do something with announcements. Volumes were amazing in the morning but terrible in the afternoon trade.

Amazing announcement today by Phil. A lot of the speculation in the fundamentals is starting to disappear from this stock.


----------



## roland (20 February 2008)

Hardly a world breaking announcement - and "Market Sensitive"? Good news though, our pile of dirt is worth more. Whenever I see "Notice Received" the anticipation is nerve racking - let's see some better ones


----------



## rub92me (20 February 2008)

The ASX decides whether it's market sensitive or not. However based on the 46 million tonnes over 10 years it does mean that anticipated net profit over 10 years has now moved from $750 million to $2 billion. I'm happy with that


----------



## nikki (20 February 2008)

oh! My! What happened today!! I was expecting a small drop on the XAO and ADY to hold steady in its consolidation channel!

10million trades and we are back to ground zero! 

Rub92me - that is a huge increase in income assuming that management can get a contract locking in that price. . .I would be surprised if iron ore prices can continue rallying at this rate. Surely, consumers of the ore will not be able to pass such a huge rise in price to customers?

Anyone know what the reference in ADY's statement is re spot price for iron? How come that is so much higher than the normal price for ore?


----------



## roland (22 February 2008)

When did this happen:



> Admiralty Resources have acquired a 10% interest in Nilnav Orthopaedics - an organisation offering a revolutionary, surgical technique and patented toolset for minimally invasive, "one cut" incision hip replacements.
> 
> Nilnav has entered into an agreement with the Ellysian Group to globally commercialise the technology.
> 
> The Nilnav technology and procedures make it a major development in orthopaedic surgery in the last 40 years.




Guess I should concentrate more ....

Volume seems pretty low at the moment - I'm sort of hoping the SP will drop a little and I'll grab some more.


----------



## Sainter (22 February 2008)

Years ago, apparently. A legacy investment if you will. I'm not including it in my hopes/expectations for the company.


----------



## Sean K (23 February 2008)

On the surface of what has been posted above, this is a dot com, turned explorer, turned biotech. LMFAO!!


----------



## nikki (23 February 2008)

roland said:


> Volume seems pretty low at the moment - I'm sort of hoping the SP will drop a little and I'll grab some more.




Hey Roland, support at 0.3 seemed very strong. It only closed @ 0.3 because of 1000 shares that were sold at the closing auction. In fact, i have to admit I have rarely seen ADY respect certain support levels and if it was going to break 0.3 during this consolidation period it should have been Friday. It did not trade @ 0.295 even though it could have easily done that. 

The weekly chart for ADY looks really good at the moment. I suspect we might get a next leg up soon if the DJIA/S&P do not screw things up  

Hope is a good thing


----------



## roland (23 February 2008)

nikki said:


> Hey Roland, support at 0.3 seemed very strong. It only closed @ 0.3 because of 1000 shares that were sold at the closing auction. In fact, i have to admit I have rarely seen ADY respect certain support levels and if it was going to break 0.3 during this consolidation period it should have been Friday. It did not trade @ 0.295 even though it could have easily done that.
> 
> The weekly chart for ADY looks really good at the moment. I suspect we might get a next leg up soon if the DJIA/S&P do not screw things up
> 
> Hope is a good thing




Yes nikki, in fact it rode out the dip better than I expected. The rise in the ore prices surely would have helped that. 

Personally I am a little aprehensive about the business split, I kinda like seeing things stay stable. I would imagine that this leaves a little uncertainty in the minds of would be investors as well.


----------



## jimmyz1 (23 February 2008)

ive been with ady for over a year now,and with the split coming up where do you think ady will priced by the end of the year as the last couple of months im getting nervous.


----------



## nikki (24 February 2008)

Hi Roland, I think the management of ADY are cautiously moving forward with the demerger because they keep delaying it. I know there are lots of uncertainties with the demerger but @ 0.3 I think all the risk is included in the SP. 

jimmyZ1, it's anyone's guess where the SP will at the end of the year. I read a merrill lynch report predicting that our index will end the year @ around 6300. That suggests to me that for the rest of the year we are going to consolidate within a broad spectrum in the index. During long consolidation periods it seems that fundamentals of a company become even more crucial and will be tested severely. IMO, the commodity markets that ADY is working with are still very bullish (potash, lithium, ore, zinc). So as long as the management team continue with the same level of commitment to producing, generating income, and structuring finance without diluting shareholder interests, we will easily work through the resistance levels in the SP as our index consolidates within a large range. 

I am sure others are less optimistic than me and I stand to be corrected with the passage of time?


----------



## rub92me (14 March 2008)

Signs of bot buying the last couple of days, after the conversion near the lows. Cynics could argue that the price was 'engineered' down for a conversion at a low price . Someone is accumulating at these levels so could signal an improvement over the next couple of weeks, depending on how much this buyer is after and what price/timeframe they want to have it. Quietly optimistic that there is not much downside at this level of the shareprice.


----------



## mick2006 (14 March 2008)

I took the recent sell off as a chance to buy into ADY, with iron ore production ramping up in Chile and the upcoming company demerger likely to create shareholder value there is plenty to like about ADY going forward.


----------



## nikki (14 March 2008)

rub92me said:


> Signs of bot buying the last couple of days, after the conversion near the lows. Cynics could argue that the price was 'engineered' down for a conversion at a low price . Someone is accumulating at these levels so could signal an improvement over the next couple of weeks, depending on how much this buyer is after and what price/timeframe they want to have it. Quietly optimistic that there is not much downside at this level of the shareprice.




I hope so Rub92me. You have been pretty good with your observations in the past so I hope the move up comes sooner rather than later to help get rid of some of my anxiety. The charts do not look particularly inviting. The bot buying is very obvious but i do not understand where the selling pressure is comming from. Not that many shares have traded below 0.24 for people to be selling them at those prices. 

I do not fully understand what a convertible note is. The good thing is that ADY used the money to pay off debt rather than needing it for everyday expenses. I assume their recent ore shipment must be bringing in money.

looking forward to the next month and a bit - hoping for lots of news to come our way.


----------



## nikki (17 March 2008)

Ouch! I am so surprised by the annual report! Can anyone put perspective on issues like: over $13 million in losses re iron ore; how is that a week ago they report that they are only in debt by $30 million and this report says that they are bankrupt and relying on overdrawn debt facilities . . . .blahblahblahblahblah...... 

What a shame! I have to admit, if i was not sitting on huge losses i would not hesitate selling after reading this financial report. . . . so i think i have to hang around another century to get my capital back - assuming that the company will be around!!


----------



## MS+Tradesim (17 March 2008)

Nikki,

I think that the "Provision for loss on iron ore contract" of $13.6m is a paper writedown for accounting purposes.

Also separately announced today, ADY have sold a shipload of iron ore at a spot price of $189/t which will inject revenue of around $9m.


----------



## gfresh (17 March 2008)

Nikki: As an audited report, obviously they have to report on the current "now" position of the company, not taking into account any future activity. As of the last half-year, very little ($2.5M) of sales revenue came in, which of course meant a subtantial booked loss, and the "going concern" of the company is in question as of the information presented at that time from a pure accounting perspective. 

Already this half we look to have $9M payment for a shipment (already 3.5x more sales revenue than last half-year), and they are looking to ramp up to at least 2 shipments per month, I assume at somewhere close to $US9M a pop. Even if it's less than this, cash flow should be good, as long as the shipments continue regularly.  

They also note on page 12, $US40-60M for pre-payment for 10% of Lithium production. Now if this can be secured (they say "mid 2008"), this will in almost one swoop zero nearly all prior $51M losses incurred in setting up operations. Again, until it happens, it can't be counted. 

So obviously ADY is in a very important make or break period in the next 12 months, as per many producers during the initital stages. But if it can continue to sell iron ore shipments, I think they will have no problems in paying off any debt, and/or make close to a tidy net profit in FY2009. Of course, the split will separate the two sides of the business, but the iron ore to me looks like it's viable.

As an early stage producer, there is quite a bit of risk attached, so it's not for everybody.


----------



## rub92me (17 March 2008)

nikki said:


> Ouch! I am so surprised by the annual report! Can anyone put perspective on issues like: over $13 million in losses re iron ore; how is that a week ago they report that they are only in debt by $30 million and this report says that they are bankrupt and relying on overdrawn debt facilities . . . .blahblahblahblahblah......
> 
> What a shame! I have to admit, if i was not sitting on huge losses i would not hesitate selling after reading this financial report. . . . so i think i have to hang around another century to get my capital back - assuming that the company will be around!!



I don't really understand your surprise. Did you expect a profit?? 
No real surprises for me other than the accounting treatment for iron ore sales contract in 2006. For ADY at this stage the only thing that matters is cashflow. We already knew about production of iron ore being lower than originally planned. And we know about all the activities they are working on to secure sufficient cash.


----------



## nikki (17 March 2008)

rub92me said:


> I don't really understand your surprise. Did you expect a profit??
> No real surprises for me other than the accounting treatment for iron ore sales contract in 2006. For ADY at this stage the only thing that matters is cashflow. We already knew about production of iron ore being lower than originally planned. And we know about all the activities they are working on to secure sufficient cash.




I Did not expect a profit? But i did not expect 13 million in write-down for iron ore side of the businness? Did not expect auditors warning us about the solvency of the company b/c of 50million plus in debt rather than the 30 that had been reduced to 20 a few days ago. I did not expect the suggestion that management might hold off producing other by-products from lithium process if solvency becomes an issue. I cannot figure out how ADY or RLL can be solvent going into a demerger! Phil must have something up his sleeve in terms of financing RLL.


----------



## roland (18 March 2008)

Well, I am in for a few more today - Nikki's posts had me thinking twice - but hey, another good news announcement today  ... grab a few and help bring the average down a little.


----------



## rub92me (18 March 2008)

nikki said:


> I Did not expect a profit? But i did not expect 13 million in write-down for iron ore side of the businness? Did not expect auditors warning us about the solvency of the company b/c of 50million plus in debt rather than the 30 that had been reduced to 20 a few days ago. I did not expect the suggestion that management might hold off producing other by-products from lithium process if solvency becomes an issue. I cannot figure out how ADY or RLL can be solvent going into a demerger! Phil must have something up his sleeve in terms of financing RLL.



1) As explained before: the $13 million write down is an accounting treatment only. It is money they _could_ have earned if the 2006 contract had been a FOB contract (as all subsequent contracts have been) and if they had produced all the iron ore in the period they expected. 
2) Auditors only look at current financial position which shows a big loss and little revenue. So they express concern. That's their job. 
3) The company is *not* $50 million in debt. That figure is accumulated losses, which doesn't affect the current cashflow or debt. The debt (borrowing) is shown around $28 million and has since been reduced. 
4) Management has to watch the cashflow, so of course if there are delays in production or production is lower than forecast they have to contain costs. Shows to me that they're well aware of what needs to be done to keep them going. 
Once the prepayment for Lithium has been secured solvency for RLL is a no-brainer. Iron ore production will need to improve and will take another 12-18 months before it is cashflow positive. Looks like they have plenty of interest from buyers to tide them over until that has been achieved.


----------



## roland (28 March 2008)

Doesn't stop - does it:

Director’s Shareholding securing Margin Loan
The Company has become aware today that stockbroker Opes Prime Group Limited has been placed into receivership by the ANZ Bank today.

Director Phillip Thomas has advised the Company that entities associated with him have a margin lending arrangement with Opes Prime with a facility balance of $2.85 million , with a current gearing ratio of 55%. 

It is now expected that this margin loan will need to be repaid or refinanced as a result of Opes Prime Group Limited being placed into receivership.

... I grabbed some more at $0.20, seemed like a good chance


----------



## STRAT (28 March 2008)

roland said:


> Doesn't stop - does it:
> 
> Director’s Shareholding securing Margin Loan
> The Company has become aware today that stockbroker Opes Prime Group Limited has been placed into receivership by the ANZ Bank today.
> ...



Hi Roland,
Does this mean there is a possibility that PT will loose all his shares to ANZ?

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Billion-dollar-bust-D64HQ?OpenDocument


----------



## nikki (29 March 2008)

Hey Roland, we should call you the 20cent buyer. I have to admit you got guts. I was watching the potential break at 20c and kept thinking should i or not!!! 

Could not do it. I might get another chance next week maybe! I suspect if 20 cents  gets tested and holds that it will be the last time we will have the chance to buy some at that price?


----------



## Trojax (31 March 2008)

STRAT said:


> Hi Roland,
> Does this mean there is a possibility that PT will loose all his shares to ANZ?




He only had a portion with Opes, $4.1 million or so with the 55% gearing, seperately holds around 7 million dollars worth that wasn't with them apparently, and unencumbered. 

So on one hand he'll have to cough up the margin (2.3 million roughly) or potentially yeah they could sell down_ some_ to cover the margin, return the difference, but overall not effecting the majority of his holdings.


----------



## rub92me (1 April 2008)

I'm more interested in the holdings of Anthony Blumberg, former ADY director and major shareholder, and major equity holder and CIO of Opes Prime. If Anthony knew about these problems, it doesn't look like he told his former colleague Phil Thomas...


----------



## juw177 (1 April 2008)

Can we say that the last 2 days drop in price was due to selling of Opes holdings? Or was it combined with panic? Will there be more substantial selling from the Opes debacle?

From a VSA point of view, a big shakeout happened yesterday and the rise today confirmed that the selling has eased.


----------



## roland (1 April 2008)

nikki said:


> Hey Roland, we should call you the 20cent buyer. I have to admit you got guts. I was watching the potential break at 20c and kept thinking should i or not!!!
> 
> Could not do it. I might get another chance next week maybe! I suspect if 20 cents  gets tested and holds that it will be the last time we will have the chance to buy some at that price?




Hi nikki, actually I got some more yesterday at $0.17 - holding a sell order now for that lot at $0.21


----------



## TheAbyss (1 April 2008)

Article in todays Australian reported that ANZ have only sold 1/4 of the Opes  shares so the downside is not finished yet. What the percentages amongst the 7 most affected are is another question. Perhaps the ADY holding is done with.


----------



## nikki (2 April 2008)

roland said:


> Hi nikki, actually I got some more yesterday at $0.17 - holding a sell order now for that lot at $0.21




Hey Roland, once again, you are braver than me. I thought about buying today @ 17 but my intuitions told me to hold off! Your timing for a quick trade has always been good. Good luck.

I read an announcement by BMN telling shareholders that they have no clue re how many shares of theirs are being sold and that it is likely that all those held in the ANZ Nominee Accounts might be sold off. I have tried really hard but I cannot even guess how many of the 247 million in that account potentially belong to the ANZ might get sold!! 

The trading volume does not really tell you much because i think there are lots of 1/2 cent traders in there who buy @ 17 and sell quickly at 17.5. I am going to risk catching the wave back up rather than get crushed by those millions of shares on the sell side - what's with the 6 -7 million sells at . 185 

Good luck to all those interested in ADY from a while back. Testing times for those who still have faith in the company's assets????


----------



## roland (2 April 2008)

Actually, I was quite surprised we didn't recover today - so much for my 0.21 order...

I'm prepared to follow ADY a little lower if necessary as I a have confidence for the long term, but will have no hesitation in taking profits where I can.

Any mention of Opus Prime sends everyone scurrying, BMN and another I was in before RFE who are now suspended - around 10% of the company caught.

I'm still seeing all this as a good buying op for ADY and a couple of others that I am into - I was happy to buy at 0.23, so I am even happier getting stock at 0.17


----------



## nikki (2 April 2008)

roland said:


> Actually, I was quite surprised we didn't recover today - so much for my 0.21 order...
> 
> I'm prepared to follow ADY a little lower if necessary as I a have confidence for the long term, but will have no hesitation in taking profits where I can.
> 
> ...




absolutely Roland. i have no problem buying in @ 17, 18, 19, 20 - i was happy buying in @ .48 

see you at .14 where i assume we will both try and catch the lithium batteries and all the greed/fear we can get our hands on. .


----------



## roland (2 April 2008)

nikki said:


> absolutely Roland. i have no problem buying in @ 17, 18, 19, 20 - i was happy buying in @ .48
> 
> see you at .14 where i assume we will both try and catch the lithium batteries and all the greed/fear we can get our hands on. .




I won't even consider buying a rechargeable battery that wasn't Lithium based.

We haven't sold any Lithium yet - have we? Maybe when we do we can learn who bought it and we can change our buying preferences to assist.


----------



## rub92me (3 April 2008)

I reckon there is a bit more selling to come for ADY.
Check out what happened to the 175 million options that were issued in december 2004 and were converted until november 2007. These were converted by entities that later morphed in to Opes. Add to this the holdings of Phil Thomas with Opes (probably about 15 million shares). Given the close relationship between Opes related entities and ADY I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are more individuals/entities that held ADY shares through Opes. So a conservative estimate would be around 200 million ADY shares tied up in this.  I guess only about 100 million or so of these were sold over the last 4 days, with the rest of the volume daytraders and other churn. Significant shareholdings are masked by transfering ownership to the banks and ANZ and Merrill hold/held a significant chunk of ADY.


----------



## nikki (3 April 2008)

rub92me said:


> I reckon there is a bit more selling to come for ADY.
> Check out what happened to the 175 million options that were issued in december 2004 and were converted until november 2007. These were converted by entities that later morphed in to Opes. Add to this the holdings of Phil Thomas with Opes (probably about 15 million shares). Given the close relationship between Opes related entities and ADY I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are more individuals/entities that held ADY shares through Opes. So a conservative estimate would be around 200 million ADY shares tied up in this.  I guess only about 100 million or so of these were sold over the last 4 days, with the rest of the volume daytraders and other churn. Significant shareholdings are masked by transfering ownership to the banks and ANZ and Merrill hold/held a significant chunk of ADY.




Now that the most interesting point I have read on any forum rub92me. Thanks for sharing your views.

Do you know who owned the options that were converted in november 2007. I have not kept my list of substantial holdings from november to see if things changed in any of those accounts after the conversions! 

Interesting to note phil being quoted in the paper as saying that his company's shares do not need a book build because of the high liquidity. . . .

The people selling are amazing at maintaining the SP at reasonable levels. They clear half a row @ .165 and then immediately buy 10 or 15 thousand at .17 to show buying interest!!! It is fantastic watching them at work. 4 days into selling they are starting to be a little predictable.


----------



## skating101 (3 April 2008)

So I guess the question on everyones lips is how low can she go? What chance is there that ADY will die because of this?


----------



## rub92me (3 April 2008)

skating101 said:


> So I guess the question on everyones lips is how low can she go? What chance is there that ADY will die because of this?



The market will decide how low it will go. Short term it looks to have found some support, but if there is another bucket load of Opes waste dumped at great speed into the market then it will go lower. Imo ADY management should have taken a trading halt seeing that 20% of shares could be impacted. E.g. CQT took a trading halt for about 10% of shares affected and are doing an orderly book build to protect the price. No way is there ever enough liqiduity to absorb a 20% dump of stock without severely affecting the price. 
ADY's activities or fate will not be directly impacted by this, although it must obviously be distracting for management.


----------



## j4mesa (3 April 2008)

checking the announcement,
this couple of days merill lynch just dunmped 31 million shares...
so close to around 22 million will be left for disposal....
oh dear2.....


----------



## rub92me (7 April 2008)

After that announcement from ANZ I'm really confused. The way I read it they are saying that at the end of 4 April they were still holding 222 million ADY shares from Opes (which is about what I thought), but they haven't sold anything yet!  If so, where did all the volume come from last week?? And does this mean they are about to dump these shares on the market soon?


----------



## j4mesa (7 April 2008)

hello rug92 me,

it seems that volume comes from Merill LYNCH , if i have not mistaken.
It seems that they hve been unloaded bits by bits...


----------



## gfresh (7 April 2008)

My guess also is with ML selling so far...

There is an updated April top 20 shareholders list on the ADY website:

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/top_20_shareholder/34173cb38f07f89ddbebc2ac9128303f.pdf

ANZ now holds a massive 24.58% of the stock  Can do what they like with it.. could sell their total holding to another player off market if they wished. 

They may have to do this (to another co) to realise a reasonable price, simply hold until the price recovers, or worst case, dump.

If they dumped in large numbers, they would have to realise prices close to 10c without buyers.. it almost doesn't seem like an option.


----------



## rub92me (7 April 2008)

j4mesa said:


> hello rug92 me,
> 
> it seems that volume comes from Merill LYNCH , if i have not mistaken.
> It seems that they hve been unloaded bits by bits...



ML only had 35 million shares and sold all of that within 2 days so that hardly explains the volume we saw after that. Looks like a lot of people jumped ship in anticipation of what was happening.


----------



## j4mesa (7 April 2008)

yeah it  is such a worry looking at the fact that ANZ holds such a big portion of it. 

Fundamentally, this is is really undervalued at the moment.
i see a big support @ 16.5 cents......not sure if ANZ dumped such a big amount....


----------



## evwatkins (8 April 2008)

only around 112million to go should be all over soon. hopefully we get a re rating the buy side looking very strong imo..


----------



## rub92me (8 April 2008)

evwatkins said:


> only around 112million to go should be all over soon. hopefully we get a re rating the buy side looking very strong imo..



 According to the latest ANZ update it is still about 200 million to go. Good to see that they're not swamping the market and only selling about 20 million a day. At this rate it will take another 10 days or so.


----------



## evwatkins (9 April 2008)

it does not include T+3 trades

so for instance the announcement on friday did no account for shares sold on wed thur and fri of last week, and so on and so forth for the other ann on monday and yesterday etc etc.


----------



## roland (9 April 2008)

buy on the dips - ADY have a ton of resources, cash is starting to roll in - been here since 2004, never made a loss yet - utilise the Opes/ANZ dump as a good opportunity to get stock at a bargain price.

just my opinion, I'm still buying (and selling when I get to my target) - nowhere to go but up

have fun


----------



## $$wanted$$ (12 April 2008)

bought some more of these bad boys today 
not a bad day bit of a jump - is there any news to come out soon


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 April 2008)

$$wanted$$ said:


> bought some more of these bad boys today




that`s fantastic - 





> not a bad day bit of a jump




always a good feeling 



> is there any news to come out soon




probably ......................................


----------



## roland (21 April 2008)

The activity on ADY and the rapid change in depth gives me a feeling that someone knows something????

Maybe ANZ have finished dumping stock?


----------



## j4mesa (21 April 2008)

roland,
i am not too sure with that..............
let's hope so but i guess today's movement is because the whole market sentiment


----------



## Trojax (21 April 2008)

Hmm, more than general market movements I feel, given it's the second most traded stock on the exchange today, very very large volumes for this stock.. and closes out on the high, watch the price tomorrow, looks good for a strong showing. Couple of things in the pipework, ANZ Opes court case decision handed down tomorrow which could be a very very positive announcement for ADY and PT to get his shares back. Secondarily this stock has been a bit of a leaky ship in the past re news, so could well hear something from PT re the lithium split that was due this month or even a progress report re his China meetings over the past week in the near future since well, both are overdue anyway. 

Personally I'd like to see PT get his stock back asap, then do the ann's, no doubt if there are any to come, they wouldn't be made public until Opes was sorted and his ownership confirmed.

*also ANZ sold half their OPES and ML 20 or 30 million, ANZ have been sitting on another 120 million that are held up pending the court ruling, dumping stopped awhile back. Watch for the ann tomorrow re the ruling, interesting day coming up


----------



## rub92me (21 April 2008)

Looks like the daytraders have come back :. Maybe they've finally tweaked to the fact that ADY also has truckloads of potash, which seems to be the market's favourite flavour at the moment.


----------



## michael_selway (21 April 2008)

rub92me said:


> Looks like the daytraders have come back :. Maybe they've finally tweaked to the fact that ADY also has truckloads of potash, which seems to be the market's favourite flavour at the moment.




Hi ADY has Potash? Do you know where it says that? Also how much Postash (compared to the other resources it has)

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -1.4 -0.1 1.0 8.9 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS



> Date: 1/4/2008
> Author: Jamie Freed
> Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 22
> Executives may have been caught out by a special loan scheme offered by collapsed stockbroker Opes Prime. According to Admiralty Resources director, Phil Thomas, Opes offered attractive interest rates and higher loan-to-value ratios than other lenders to executives, as well as loans on non-blue chip stock options. Thomas claims to have been aware that he was signing up to an unusual margin loan with Opes, although he said he was not aware that he had handed full security over to the stockbroker.


----------



## roland (21 April 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi ADY has Potash? Do you know where it says that? Also how much Postash (compared to the other resources it has)
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...




JORC Estimate of 70,000 tonnes of lithium equivalent metal and 2.48million tonnes of potash

Here is the link:
http://www.ady.com.au/pdf/pdf7_050727_rincon_salar_JORC_estimate.pdf

I think though, you may need to read between the lines regarding Potash, since ADY has Potassium Chloride, whereas Potassium Oxide is considered to be the fertiliser variety.

The link here to Wiki's definitions may help: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potash


----------



## urgalzmine (21 April 2008)

roland said:


> JORC Estimate of 70,000 tonnes of lithium equivalent metal and 2.48million tonnes of potash
> 
> Here is the link:
> http://www.ady.com.au/pdf/pdf7_050727_rincon_salar_JORC_estimate.pdf
> ...




That is correct.. but remember Potash is a bi product. They get it for free!!!

for every 17000 tonne of Lithium, produce 77000 tonnes of Potash(for free)

also remember lithium sells for about $6000 per tonne


----------



## kray192 (21 April 2008)

Why does ppl always miss the important bit  
by 70k tonnes of lithium thats in pure lithium metal, the $6k(probably go up) price is calculated by tonne of lithium chloride (99% i think, closer to 100% higher the price but also difficulty to extract). The 70k lithium metal equals to 427k tonnes of lithium chloride. 
You never ever have lithium by itself, extremely sensitive chemically.


----------



## rub92me (21 April 2008)

roland said:


> JORC Estimate of 70,000 tonnes of lithium equivalent metal and 2.48million tonnes of potash
> 
> Here is the link:
> http://www.ady.com.au/pdf/pdf7_050727_rincon_salar_JORC_estimate.pdf
> ...



Also from Wikipedia is the following:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potassium_chloride


> The majority of the potassium chloride produced is used for making fertilizer, since the growth of many plants is limited by their potassium intake. As a chemical feedstock it is used for the manufacture of potassium hydroxide and potassium metal. It is also used in medicine, scientific applications, food processing, as a sodium-free substitute for table salt (sodium chloride), and in judicial execution through lethal injection. It is sometimes used in water as a completion fluid in oil and gas operations. Also, as an alternative to sodium chloride in household water softener units.



Any fertilizer experts in da house?


----------



## nikki (23 April 2008)

Anyone notice something odd about the trading in ADY today?

Huge volumes but did not go anywhere? Did i miss something! Chart does not look particularly good as a result - indecision followed by failed attempt at a break of strong support @ .2 

potash!!! all this time i have been investing in ADY thinking it is an iron ore company?


----------



## roland (23 April 2008)

nikki said:


> Anyone notice something odd about the trading in ADY today?
> 
> Huge volumes but did not go anywhere? Did i miss something! Chart does not look particularly good as a result - indecision followed by failed attempt at a break of strong support @ .2
> 
> potash!!! all this time i have been investing in ADY thinking it is an iron ore company?




Day trading, buy at .19 sell at .195 - works for me - 4 transactions today - the confidence is there to not worry too much about being stuck - just wait for the next .05 and start again


----------



## Trojax (23 April 2008)

did u not notice the ANZ ann this arvo @ 3:41 switching to 'major holder, then the 20 million cross trade at 3:58pm, then the off trades from to 4:00 - 4:10 @ around 30 mill shares all at .19, IMO we either have a big new player who wants in and did a deal on the SP @.19, an unknown player positioning themselves or PT is possibly getting his holdings back, news is imminent IMO 

(additional: punter day traders dont trade blocks that big lol, let alone after market close)


----------



## roland (23 April 2008)

Trojax said:


> did u not notice the ANZ ann this arvo @ 3:41 switching to 'major holder, then the 20 million cross trade at 3:58pm, then the off trades from to 4:00 - 4:10 @ around 30 mill shares all at .19, IMO we either have a big new player who wants in and did a deal on the SP @.19, an unknown player positioning themselves or PT is possibly getting his holdings back, news is imminent IMO




I don't think that there was anything so special about the ANZ announcement in regards to ADY, since they announced the same for all their current Opus holdings. Also, I watched the volume and the announcement didn't seem to have any effect.

Didn't watch close enough to notice the closing trades, but thanks for the heads up


----------



## nikki (23 April 2008)

hi Roland, 

what sort of volumes do you play with to make the trade worthwhile once you take out the cost of brokerage. who do you use if the brokerage is cheap!!!

agree with you that at this price the downside risks are small and so your strategy is smart!

cheers


----------



## Tukker (24 April 2008)

nikki said:


> hi Roland,
> 
> what sort of volumes do you play with to make the trade worthwhile once you take out the cost of brokerage. who do you use if the brokerage is cheap!!!
> 
> ...





Risky if there isn't good liquidity and you don't have direct market access. Its not for the faint of heart i believe.


----------



## roland (24 April 2008)

nikki said:


> hi Roland,
> 
> what sort of volumes do you play with to make the trade worthwhile once you take out the cost of brokerage. who do you use if the brokerage is cheap!!!
> 
> ...




actually the volumes are not so large - you don't need a lot to cover the brokerage ($19.95 x 2) and since I am actually holding higher cost parcels the worst that can happen is that I'd end up averaging down on a stock that I am happy to hold - and none of my holdings are geared, so I can wait if things go south


----------



## aleckara (24 April 2008)

Potash prices have sky rocketed recently. I believe they are at something like above $500 a tonne now. There has definitely been a lot of day trading, or someone playing with ADY.

A sales agreement in regards to the Potash however mentions a lower sales price (announced years ago). Hopefully the agreement is to sell at the spot price rather than that price.


----------



## Tukker (24 April 2008)

roland said:


> .. and none of my holdings are geared, so I can wait if things go south




That must be nice to know.  I don't have that much available cash so basically i gotta take a more conservative angle.

78mil shares traded yesterday and price held firm at 19c, daytraders you think?


----------



## roland (24 April 2008)

Tukker said:


> That must be nice to know.  I don't have that much available cash so basically i gotta take a more conservative angle.
> 
> 78mil shares traded yesterday and price held firm at 19c, daytraders you think?




Day Traders? hard to know for sure, ANZ sold off another 5 million. If the stock flops backwards and forwards half a cent all day, then even if it were not day traders, it does lend itself to day trading - especially when there is a lot of volume


----------



## nikki (24 April 2008)

Looks the ANZ are still selling. I assume the huge cross-trades yesterday were linked to the ANZ as well.

Roland, who do you use to get $20 brokerage?

cheers


----------



## roland (24 April 2008)

nikki said:


> Looks the ANZ are still selling. I assume the huge cross-trades yesterday were linked to the ANZ as well.
> 
> Roland, who do you use to get $20 brokerage?
> 
> cheers




Comsec - below $10,000 is $19.95, above $10,000 is $29.95 or some percentage, whichever is higher. Is this cheap? - I was under the impression the brokerage was average to high ????


----------



## nikki (24 April 2008)

hmmm - i paid $33 using etrade! 

good luck.. i bought more at 0.19 yesterday and am regretting it a little. to be honest i am a litte unsure about ADY and its ability to stay afloat? i hope i am wrong and that the current shareprice is not a reflection of deeper fundamentals that i am not capable of understanding or knowing about?????

this is not a downramp in anyway because i have been with ADY for a while and cannot leave the damn thing even though i have tried for the past month?????


----------



## roland (24 April 2008)

nikki said:


> hmmm - i paid $33 using etrade!
> 
> good luck.. i bought more at 0.19 yesterday and am regretting it a little. to be honest i am a litte unsure about ADY and its ability to stay afloat? i hope i am wrong and that the current shareprice is not a reflection of deeper fundamentals that i am not capable of understanding or knowing about?????
> 
> this is not a downramp in anyway because i have been with ADY for a while and cannot leave the damn thing even though i have tried for the past month?????




nikki, you should be concerned with any investment you make. IMO the SP is going to be pretty stagnant until ANZ have sold off the rest of the 120,000, 000 shares they have. Sort of scarey thinking that they have the power to kill the SP if they wanted to - but I am sure that there are rules that prevent them doing so.

I am unsure of the amount of damage that the company has suffered with Opus/ADY Directors etc, but I am sure that it is quite negative.

In defence of ADY, they have a very low cost operation with easy access to income generating resources. They have a sizable debt which seems to be managed responsibly. So long as they can keep the shipments up and progress with the Lithium and Potash then everything should be cool 

E-Trade ????, mmm I wouldn't like to be paying $33 per trade

ADY is a bit of a flat-liner today - might go and buy something else....


----------



## evwatkins (24 April 2008)

Roland,

I doubt there are 120mil shares left, as per the previous sell down these ANZ anns do not take into account T+3. So i believe the 120mil would be from trades placed on friday last week. You will notice that since monday another 195mill odd shares have been traded, do you seriously think that this is day traders producing such volumes... i dont think so.

Therefor we will see (as we did on the sell down from ANZ a few weeks ago) that they will disclose each day the amount of shares left which does not include unsettled trades (T+3).

pretty simple.


----------



## roland (24 April 2008)

evwatkins said:


> Roland,
> 
> I doubt there are 120mil shares left, as per the previous sell down these ANZ anns do not take into account T+3. So i believe the 120mil would be from trades placed on friday last week. You will notice that since monday another 195mill odd shares have been traded, do you seriously think that this is day traders producing such volumes... i dont think so.
> 
> ...




Good point about T+3 - will keep that in mind

Actually I didn't say that I thought it was Day Traders producing the volume:



> Day Traders? hard to know for sure, ANZ sold off another 5 million. If the stock flops backwards and forwards half a cent all day, then even if it were not day traders, it does lend itself to day trading - especially when there is a lot of volume




Good to eventually see the tail end of ANZ


----------



## rub92me (28 April 2008)

Looks like it was ANZ selling out last week. Interesting action around the close today. Just before 4.00 pm a single buy of around 3 million shares took out all the 20 cent sellers and another/same big buyer ensured close of 20.5 cents. Hope we get some follow through tomorrow so we can say goodbye to sub 20 cents for a while.


----------



## nikki (28 April 2008)

rub92me said:


> Looks like it was ANZ selling out last week. Interesting action around the close today. Just before 4.00 pm a single buy of around 3 million shares took out all the 20 cent sellers and another/same big buyer ensured close of 20.5 cents. Hope we get some follow through tomorrow so we can say goodbye to sub 20 cents for a while.




Some very confident buyers at the closing auction? I suspect we will hit resistance somewhere around 25 / 28 cents but we need a close above 29 to resume uptrend IMO!

I assume the quarterly must be due anyday! I wonder what tricks Phil has up his sleeve this time! Maybe he has discovered gold as the by-product of purifying the ore in Chile. Anything will be a positive given the recent corrections in price


----------



## roland (28 April 2008)

nikki said:


> Some very confident buyers at the closing auction? I suspect we will hit resistance somewhere around 25 / 28 cents but we need a close above 29 to resume uptrend IMO!
> 
> I assume the quarterly must be due anyday! I wonder what tricks Phil has up his sleeve this time! Maybe he has discovered gold as the by-product of purifying the ore in Chile. Anything will be a positive given the recent corrections in price




Hi nikki - yes it was good to see the close at .205 - I guees I'll have to cancel my .17 standing buy order and set up the .215 sell order. I'm glad that you don't have to worry about your .19 parcel any longer 

I have parcels seperated by 0.01 from 0.19 to 0.24 (then a lonely one sitting at .33 )


----------



## nikki (29 April 2008)

roland said:


> Hi nikki - yes it was good to see the close at .205 - I guees I'll have to cancel my .17 standing buy order and set up the .215 sell order. I'm glad that you don't have to worry about your .19 parcel any longer
> 
> I have parcels seperated by 0.01 from 0.19 to 0.24 (then a lonely one sitting at .33 )




hmmmm, i bought some at 19 cents but still have losses from the ones i bought @ 40 cents 

i think if it holds above 20 cents i might keep my 19 cent parcels in the hope that news about that ill-fated demerger might appear one day?


----------



## roland (29 April 2008)

nikki said:


> hmmmm, i bought some at 19 cents but still have losses from the ones i bought @ 40 cents
> 
> i think if it holds above 20 cents i might keep my 19 cent parcels in the hope that news about that ill-fated demerger might appear one day?




Sounds like a plan!

On the other hand, you could sell your .19 and take a little profit, you can always buy them back again on a down day....


----------



## lingqi (30 April 2008)

Two announcements were released."Ceasing to be a substantial holder from ANZ","ANZ: Opes Prime Disclosure ". Now ANZ only has 8.305% of ADY shares which is around 81 million shares. It is good to see ANZ will no longer be a substantial holder. No wonder why we had such a big volume on 21st and 23rd. Now I am still suprised that the price went up on 21st with such a big volume.


----------



## Trojax (30 April 2008)

Reason for the run today.. Opes is gone, Anz cease notice so their gone and surprise surprise the March quarterly report has just been released late arvo (the day after ANZ ceased to be a substantial holder).. I believe its great, have a look..

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/....jsp?
searchBy=asxCode&allinfo=on&asxCode=ADY

Interesting next few months for ADY holders


----------



## Bushman (30 April 2008)

Trojax said:


> Reason for the run today.. Opes is gone, Anz cease notice so their gone and surprise surprise the March quarterly report has just been released late arvo (the day after ANZ ceased to be a substantial holder).. I believe its great, have a look..
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...jsp?
> searchBy=asxCode&allinfo=on&asxCode=ADY
> ...




.....and look what they are startign to highlight. *Yes Rincon Salar has potash and shizen loads of it.* Now they just have to get rid of the pesky debt issue. 

Starting to look interesting again.


----------



## wipz (30 April 2008)

Bushman said:


> .....and look what they are startign to highlight. *Yes Rincon Salar has potash and shizen loads of it.* Now they just have to get rid of the pesky debt issue.
> 
> Starting to look interesting again.



..........................
They dont have that much do they?............ around 50(2p)mt?...............


----------



## roland (30 April 2008)

wipz said:


> ..........................
> They dont have that much do they?............ around 50(2p)mt?...............




..bit of an odd thing to say wipz, the Potash is really just a by-product of the lithium recovery process. The over tones of belittling ADY's Potash resource shows some ignorance of the larger picture.

Like most ADY investors, we are investing in a Lithium resource. To have some Potash at the end of the process is just some extra icing on the cake


----------



## Trojax (30 April 2008)

roland said:


> ..bit of an odd thing to say wipz, the Potash is really just a by-product of the lithium recovery process. The over tones of belittling ADY's Potash resource shows some ignorance of the larger picture.
> 
> Like most ADY investors, we are investing in a Lithium resource. To have some Potash at the end of the process is just some extra icing on the cake




Roland how did you take the March quarter report? I was very happy, I won't go into each point, but wow is all I feel, the next 8 weeks should be pretty intense on announcements. Again anyone reading please see the quarterly just out, I mean the next 8 weeks really are jam packed.

Great news re SITEC backing, ramping production, lithium coming onboard, demerger although delayed still imminent, and suprised re the lithium refinement patent imminent, don't get me started on the 500m bonds, slurry pipeline and port tender, lol! 

Potash is cream, and on top of their production estimated I'd love to know now re the geologists exploration, that too was a bit of a suprise 

Have to admit though I did sell out of some other stocks today and put the bucks into ADY at 2pm to add to my existing holding, the woody came on the report at 4:10pm lol, expected the news to start flowing once ANZ ceased it's opes effect which was yesterday, no suprise ADY\PT waited  lol

DYOR again, read the report, make up your own minds


----------



## roland (30 April 2008)

Trojax said:


> Roland how did you take the March quarter report? I was very happy, I won't go into each point, but wow is all I feel, the next 8 weeks should be pretty intense on announcements. Again anyone reading please see the quarterly just out, I mean the next 8 weeks really are jam packed.




Hey, Trojax, the report was good - it's obvious that ADY are really concentrating on managing the debt/financing - and the report read like they are doing that well.

Some of the delays, wrong crushers, cold weather delays etc, are a little negative but, what can you do???

I sold off some today on the high to grab some profits, and as time progresses and ADY matures it becomes easier to lay more cash in on the dips without too much worry.

I'm really having fun with short term trading with a long term focus - lots of $$,s to be made in my opinion.


----------



## roland (1 May 2008)

Market is lower today, and it has dragged ADY with it. Looks like having sold some at .235 worked out well for me. I have an order in at .21 to see if I can pick up those shares I sold yesterday.


----------



## lingqi (1 May 2008)

Ronald, have you picked some shares up at .21? If so, that would be a great short-term trade. so who can comment on the cash flow released today? Investors may concern about 20M loan?


----------



## roland (1 May 2008)

lingqi said:


> Ronald, have you picked some shares up at .21? If so, that would be a great short-term trade. so who can comment on the cash flow released today? Investors may concern about 20M loan?




nahhh, haven't got them yet - I'm about middle of the pack. No hurry though, I've done a hundred or so trades since Feb 2005 - back then you would have to wait a week or more for a 0.01 movement.

If it moves away from me, then I switch to sell mode - I'm happy for ADY to move either way - great fun!!!


----------



## roland (2 May 2008)

Got my parcel at .21 - sort of happened really quick .... someone jumped ship and ate up all the buyers at .21.

I now have another order in for .19


----------



## roland (2 May 2008)

Shougang Update
• 10 year takeoff contract for 50% of production being negotiated
• Minimum projected tonnage is 25 million tonnes over ten years when expansion
is completed, at a value of US$1.8 Billion at current FOB prices
• Six senior Shougang executives to Visit Cia Minera Santa Barbara in June 2008

Glad I got those .21 

The ADY story just keeps getting better


----------



## blehgg (2 May 2008)

awesome picked some up yesterday for 0.215 - 

~ guess they always mini-trade halt for announcements?


----------



## EasternGrey1 (3 May 2008)

I think part of the reason for ADY's abysmal share price performance recently - on top of the ANZ Opes Prime mess - has been the cash flow position. Thursday's[?] cash flow report showed enough cash for 3 days.

We know that ADY has a heap of cash coming in soon, now that it has started its iron ore exports, but will it run out of cash first?

I think yesterday's announcement gives the answer - they raised $1m by issuing shares. What that suggests is that they don't need a lot of cash to tide them over. Even if they do another $2-3m that doesn't dilute too much.

My reading is that they will survive and thrive. I bought at prices from 0.26 down to 0.18 (more at 0.18 thankfully), so I'm now about all square but feeling very confident.

Has anyone put a value on ADY?


----------



## roland (9 May 2008)

EasternGrey1 said:


> I think part of the reason for ADY's abysmal share price performance recently - on top of the ANZ Opes Prime mess - has been the cash flow position. Thursday's[?] cash flow report showed enough cash for 3 days.
> 
> We know that ADY has a heap of cash coming in soon, now that it has started its iron ore exports, but will it run out of cash first?
> 
> ...




Another reason EG, the demerger of the Chemical/Ore businesses adds an unknown factor which could de-value the holdings. The details are not known yet but ADY suggest that the ADY component is most likely to be worth less - reflecting the higher value placed in Rincon Lithium. That being said, one would suspect that total value should be the same ???

In any case, I picked up some ore at .19 yesterday


----------



## lingqi (9 May 2008)

well, New Ann states that 28.6m shares worth of 5 million dollars issued. So strange why they don't just tell us what price each share issued at? I am not bothered to do the calculation myself. It is only about 0.175 per share, which may explain the recent SP dropping from 0.235 to 0.19.


----------



## nikki (10 May 2008)

Rub92me, are you still around! What's your view on the share issue!! I am not surprised that Phil needs the money but why raise 1 million @ 21.5 cents a share and then 5 million @ 17.5. He will soon run out of interested buyers to raise capital if he keeps screwing them around like this. At least the 17.5 cent buyers might see some profits assuming he can keep the company afloat.

Roland, do you still have your 19 cent shares. I decided to buy @ 19.5 after selling my earlier lot last week but once again ADY has surprised me. I should have seen it comming given the serious and not so normal dumping of shares that took place last week. I keeping on telling myself that I will never trade ADY  especially with all the other stocks running wild!!! Not sure why i keep buying them  Let's hope that we will not see our shares go lower than 17cents. I have no money left to buy anymore!! Maybe i will CFD them if they hit that range again.

I think i need therapy to ween myself of this stock..........


----------



## j4mesa (10 May 2008)

Honestly speaking, in terms of projects & resources , development stage, I have no doubt in thsi company.....

However, the dilution as a result of capital raising does not do any good in terms of share price perspective.....


----------



## rub92me (12 May 2008)

nikki said:


> Rub92me, are you still around! What's your view on the share issue!! I am not surprised that Phil needs the money but why raise 1 million @ 21.5 cents a share and then 5 million @ 17.5. He will soon run out of interested buyers to raise capital if he keeps screwing them around like this. At least the 17.5 cent buyers might see some profits assuming he can keep the company afloat.



I think it's fair to assume that they raise capital at the best price the market will give them. Obviously the iron ore production has been well below their goals/plans which has caused tightness in the cashflow. As I've stated before, I'm in this for the long term. For some people long term seems to be a couple of months , for me it's 3-5 years.


----------



## roland (12 May 2008)

nikki said:


> Roland, do you still have your 19 cent shares. I decided to buy @ 19.5 after selling my earlier lot last week but once again ADY has surprised me.




Hi nikki, I have .19, .20, .21, .23 and sadly .33 - my faith hasn't waned, I'll grab some more if it falls. Average is .22, but I have bought and sold a heap and taken profits, so I am in very good shape with ADY.


----------



## roland (12 May 2008)

Quite a lack-lustre day today with ADY. Only 11mil volume and the market depth is against us today. At least there is an obvious resistance to losing SP value.

I suppose that the $5 Mil raising by 3rd party investment rather than extending loan facilities should be taken positively - there is obvious confidence shown with added investor interest.

A slight dilution of share value is sitting much better with me as opposed to a reduction of company capacity to pull a profit due to burdens of loan repayments.


----------



## EasternGrey1 (14 May 2008)

Dilution looks like about 3%(?). I agree with roland.

I get the impression that the market is valuing ADY for its iron ore alone. Maybe iron ore people aren't interested in Lithium, and vice versa. My feeling is that the lithium is worth at least as much as the iron ore (it's what I bought ADY for). So bring on the spin-off!!!


----------



## roland (14 May 2008)

Quite right, Iron Ore wasn't even a thought - just a pile of rubble in the way of the Lithium - not a bad bit of pocket money though 

Then there is the Potash - that wasn't on my radar initially either - again another opportunity to bring a few bucks in.

I am also hoping that ADY will sell off the Zinc propects at Bullman and the Nickel at Pike, seems to me the $$$'s could be spent better on the salt lake


----------



## mapna (28 May 2008)

WOnder why ADY has been under selling pressure as such. Maybe it is time for the Mgt to make some ann. to inform investors about what is happening ??? investors need an update ...


----------



## roland (28 May 2008)

mapna said:


> WOnder why ADY has been under selling pressure as such. Maybe it is time for the Mgt to make some ann. to inform investors about what is happening ??? investors need an update ...




I don't think that the selling pressure is a lot different to the rest of the resources market - in fact I think ADY is holding up quite well.

There will be some perceived dilution of share value with the recent $0.17 issue to "sophisticated" investors.

I see this as an opportunity to grab some more, which I did today at $0.17 and have an order in at $0.16 just in case I can get the chance to get in lower.


----------



## roland (28 May 2008)

mapna said:


> WOnder why ADY has been under selling pressure as such. Maybe it is time for the Mgt to make some ann. to inform investors about what is happening ??? investors need an update ...




I don't think that the selling pressure is a lot different to the rest of the resources market - in fact I think ADY is holding up quite well.

There will be some perceived dilution of share value with the recent $0.17 issue to "sophisticated" investors.

I see this as an opportunity to grab some more, which I did today at $0.17 and have an order in at $0.16 just in case I can get the chance to get in lower.


----------



## aleckara (29 May 2008)

roland said:


> I don't think that the selling pressure is a lot different to the rest of the resources market - in fact I think ADY is holding up quite well.
> 
> There will be some perceived dilution of share value with the recent $0.17 issue to "sophisticated" investors.
> 
> I see this as an opportunity to grab some more, which I did today at $0.17 and have an order in at $0.16 just in case I can get the chance to get in lower.




I believe the capital raising just to pay wages and such has not helped them. The Opes parcel was probably taken up quickly by people that were expecting it to bounce back once the selling ceased which it didn't while a lot of other speculative stocks have recovered (actually most I've looked at have recovered - just I'm not in them). However the risk factors after that capital raising and the last cash flow statement show that they are running out of money and I think that scares a lot of people when all the iron ore miners are going great guns. Sure Lithium/potash is the main prize, but iron ore if it was running properly could have kept them afloat enough to take advantage of their other resource.

I think it is priced accordingly to the risk level that people want to take at the moment. The next few months will be crucial for ADY in terms of its ability to survive as a company. IMO it is a stock that will either rocket, or go bust. It's prospects are good, but capitalising on those prospects may be a different story. Only time will tell.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (4 June 2008)

Hey guys,

I've picked up quite a few ADY today as I see it wayy overdue for a bounce for the following reasons


1. Chart wise 16c is very very strong support and so to me there appears little downside from 16.5c

2. The company is currently producing and shipping Iron Ore profitably from its South American mine and has 2 Chinese offtake partners

3. The company has been negotiating a $1.8Billion offtake agreement with a Chinese group, if this is signed off on I'd expect the stock to go for a mad dash to the moon

4. The company has suffered heavily at the hands of Opes Prime, with some 200M shares being dumped on mkt causing the current SP collapse

5. The company is in the process of a demerger of its Lithium/Potash assets which alone I reckon are worth 20c ADY, the demerger will also give share holders a 1:1 free share post consolidation = 1:3.5 pre consolidation


So for all those reasons I expect a rebound off the current lows

Cheers


----------



## barney (4 June 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> I've picked up quite a few ADY today as I see it wayy overdue for a bounce for the following reasons
> 
> ...





Agree YT,  Also picked up a few more recently.  Good long term prospects.

PS How did you enjoy the "Trading in the Zone"? ... Pretty heavy reading at times eh? ...... Cheers.


----------



## Knobby22 (4 June 2008)

Yes, I'm back in at 16.5c.

The bounce may take a while to materialise and the big worry for investors has more to do with the taxes and general risks you have with an African country. I think this is reflected in the price and if something good happens at that front we could also get a bounce. They could just as easily decide to steal the company through even higher taxes.

Not a company for the faint hearted. I hope the CEO has a good relationship with the leaders of the country.


----------



## rub92me (4 June 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> I've picked up quite a few ADY today as I see it wayy overdue for a bounce for the following reasons
> 
> ...



Excellent, good to have you on board. I've been holding for about 2 years, and it's been an interesting ride so far. 
On item 2) They haven't been producing near as much as hoped/expected and continue to have challenges with getting additional and good equipment to increase production. Cash flow challenges have instilled some fear for some, but personally I think that given the resource they have and Chinese interest this is not much of a concern.
Share price started to slide way before the Opes mess came around but hasn't helped of course. 
From a TA perspective could see some big buyers stepping up yesterday to soak up aggressive selling, so 16 cents looks like strong resistance to me as well. Onwards and upwards from here I hope!


----------



## d_crome (4 June 2008)

Knobby22 said:


> Yes, I'm back in at 16.5c.
> 
> The bounce may take a while to materialise and the big worry for investors has more to do with the taxes and general risks you have with an African country. I think this is reflected in the price and if something good happens at that front we could also get a bounce. They could just as easily decide to steal the company through even higher taxes.
> 
> Not a company for the faint hearted. I hope the CEO has a good relationship with the leaders of the country.




Africa??  Last I knew ADY was operational in South America....

I've a small holding in this and at the current levels I'm glad it's a SMALL holding else I'd be hurting!!  This has the hallmarks of what could have been a great company - but there were serious road blocks along the way.

When the de-merger is complete I'll contemplate increasing my holding, the Lithium is a very attractive investment (and the fact that Potash is a BIPRODUCT of the Lithium extraction process - ADY could well have the Midas Poo Touch).


----------



## oldblue (4 June 2008)

Not too sure where the "African" bit comes from. The two big projects are in Chile and Argentina. I'm no expert but I understand that neither country is a high Country Risk in the international scene.
Biggest risk to my way of thinking is in getting the projects, particularly the lithium, up and running profitably.

Disc: Don't hold, but interested.


----------



## Knobby22 (4 June 2008)

Doh

Yes you are right. (Too many mining companies in my head).

No what is wrong with company is the outstanding debt and the fact it deals with "Leverage Capital".
Others I know have no respect for management.

Still I'm back in. 

Doh


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (5 June 2008)

Hey guys

Great ann today from ADY, I have picked the best bits that I liked

1. The *$1.8Billion Shougang offtake* agreement appears to be a done deal as the hence why the NAB have given the $40m facility, they said they would not until offtake was signed, so it must be a _fait to compli_ and should be *signed off in early July*

2. JORC upgrade for exisiting production areas in JULY, this is most welcomed

3. *New Intial JORC for Mariposa before the end of June * where ADY is looking to set up a Pellet plant operation, Shougang already has a Pellet production facility  nearby and the other Chinese group WISCO are very interested


Given SDL's amazing perfromance of late, surely ADY which is at the bottom of its chart around 16.5c is due for a run?


----------



## rub92me (5 June 2008)

Can't fault your timing YT. Also have a look at the latest 'Topstock Questions & Answers' on the ADY site for further detail. All we need now is some good news on the Lithium tender as well and it could get some serious momentum.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (5 June 2008)

Was always going to happen Rub,

Was wayyy overdue for a rebound

Glad I grabbed a few million at the lows


----------



## roland (5 June 2008)

The news today, in my opinion, was certainly nothing new, but was good to generate a little interest to bring back the SP a little.

YT being on board will generate a little extra attention from his "followers" and should help with some day trader activity. Thanks YT - love your work 

I also think that we are close to seeing the last chance of picking up ADY in the teens - although the demerger turmoil still hangs over us, hard to know where the SP will go with that ....


----------



## mapna (5 June 2008)

roland said:


> The news today, in my opinion, was certainly nothing new, but was good to generate a little interest to bring back the SP a little.
> 
> YT being on board will generate a little extra attention from his "followers" and should help with some day trader activity. Thanks YT - love your work
> 
> I also think that we are close to seeing the last chance of picking up ADY in the teens - although the demerger turmoil still hangs over us, hard to know where the SP will go with that ....




As you mentioned in your post, "nothing new", I reckon today surge is just a one-off event by the ann. This stock has been up and down like it many times but only short live. The demerger issue and cash problem are still hanging around ... I wish  to see this stock move up with strong fundamental support rather than ramping ....

IMHO - DYOR...


----------



## rub92me (6 June 2008)

mapna said:


> As you mentioned in your post, "nothing new", I reckon today surge is just a one-off event by the ann. This stock has been up and down like it many times but only short live. The demerger issue and cash problem are still hanging around ... I wish  to see this stock move up with strong fundamental support rather than ramping ....
> IMHO - DYOR...



Well, I did my own research.
1) Demerger issue. The only 'issue' is that they are waiting from a ruling from ATO. If it is a favourable ruling (i.e. doesn't have adverse implications for holders) they will go ahead with it, otherwise they won't. Either way it won't negatively affect the value of my holding.
2) Cashflow issue. There is no cashflow issue anymore.They have a signed standby letter of credit for 40 million, which will allow them to proceed with their expansion.
Anyone is entitled to their opinion of course, but the ramping comment cuts both ways.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (6 June 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> I've picked up quite a few ADY today as *I see it wayy overdue for a bounce* for the following reasons
> 
> ...




Well bounce it did and I didn't have to wait too long,

Well I'm out, very nice profits from at 16.5c entry to a 21c exit

It may run higher it may not, it may be undervalued it may not, I approached this from the start as a stock that was overdue for a *BOUNCE*


Good luck to all


----------



## NickVC (6 June 2008)

It just gone up to 0.23, I got in at 0.20 this morning.  Company announcement regarding Rinkon was made at 12:37pm, so this may be pushing up the prices.


----------



## cordelia (6 June 2008)

well I bought these yesterday at .18 and sold today at .265...thought it was best to take a profit...

quite happy really..besides it was too nerve racking


----------



## rub92me (6 June 2008)

Good old Phil Thomas is back to his usual trick of staggering the good announcements to bring in the daytraders. All time volume record, but a lot of it probably churn. A finish around the mid twenties would be nice.


----------



## cordelia (6 June 2008)

well I am not a daytrader but when prices go up this fast they can sometimes go down just as quick. I'll jump back on when it finds some support...


----------



## NickVC (6 June 2008)

I got spooked by the last few posts and sold out at 0.26, but not a bad increase after buying in this morning at 0.20


----------



## chrissyoscar (6 June 2008)

I bought late last week and topped up a few times this week for an average of .173 but will hold for now.
This company has potential and with the demerger happening soon that'll make it more attractive.
Better value for investors according to the guys in the know.


----------



## cordelia (6 June 2008)

What a great day for ADY.....and a good place to close.....Hopefully some consolidation around this level and then off again


----------



## roland (6 June 2008)

Well, the "TOPSTOCKS Questions & Answers - Updated 06/06/2008" from ADY's website is quite an interesting read, a few lame questions that Phil had to deal with.

Phil's responses are quite inspiring and certainly shows his obvious level of commitment and vision for ADY. Reading through the whole thing makes you feel a little exhausted.

I have short term traded ADY since early 2005, but now I am getting the feeling that any selling of my growing holdings would be like throwing out the baby with the bath water.

I am actually hoping for a pull back so I can grab some more


----------



## kerosam (7 June 2008)

just hoping pay check would come faster... wanted to get in when they were 18cts few days/weeks ago... SP wasn;t moving anywhere then... maybe i should put $500 and see how lucky i can get


----------



## PhoenixXx (10 June 2008)

No substantial announcement today, but SP is about to break 30ct.

_"The Board of Directors are delighted to announce that Admiralty Resources NL
has joined the S&P ASX 300 index. Our addition to the index was announced
under additions on the S&P website for the materials sector. This means that
Index funds will now be acquiring shares on market to our market weighting in
the Index."_


----------



## roland (11 June 2008)

A fair bit of churn at .25 - .26 should help to create a base for the next move up. Probably end up flat or a little negative for the day.


----------



## rub92me (11 June 2008)

roland said:


> A fair bit of churn at .25 - .26 should help to create a base for the next move up. Probably end up flat or a little negative for the day.



I was expecting to see more profit taking today than we've seen so far based on the high volumes that went through the previous days. I'm hoping for consolidation around the 25 cents level over the next couple of days as the volume drops off. Ready for the next announcement :


----------



## roland (13 June 2008)

I haven't studied the Bulman project to any extent, but I am not overly excited at sinking funds into "yet another zinc mine prospect"

Sounds like a comittment ADY has set up somewhere in the past that they reluctantly have to follow through on.

Has anyone looked into the Bulman prospect enough to provide any opinion?


----------



## roland (13 June 2008)

Bulman:

This is from the NT Department of Minerals & Energy website

Moonlight Mining is ADY's wholly owned subsidiary

*Undeveloped zinc-lead-silver resources*
Resource figures derived from company reports to the Australian Stock Exchange or from NT Geological Survey.

Significant undeveloped Zn-Pb-Ag resources in the McArthur Basin include:

Deposit Ore and grade Extraction Contact 
Coxco 7.8 Mt @ 4.2% Zn, 1.1% Pb Opencut McArthur River Mining 
*Bulman 1.2 Mt @ 11% Zn and 6.5% Pb Opencut Moonlight Mining NL* 


McArthur Basin  
The Palaeo- to Mesoproterozoic McArthur Basin (1800-1500 Ma) is exposed over an area of about 180 000 km² in the northeastern Northern Territory. It unconformably overlies Palaeoproterozoic metamorphosed and deformed rocks of the Pine Creek Orogen to the west, Murphy Inlier to the south and Arnhem Inlier to the northeast (see Geological regions of the NT). The Murphy Inlier was probably a palaeogeographical high separating the McArthur Basin from the South Nicholson Basin and Lawn Hill Platform. Phanerozoic strata of the Georgina, Dunmarra, Carpentaria and Arafura basins unconformably overlie the McArthur Basin succession. McArthur Basin strata apparently continue beneath these basins and may be continuous with the Tomkinson Creek Province of the Tennant Region.

Within the McArthur Basin, two north-trending fault zones, the Walker Fault Zone (WFZ) and Batten Fault Zone (BFZ), are separated by the east-trending Urapunga Fault Zone (see McArthur Basin regional setting). Tectonically 'stable' shelves to the east and west flank these relatively deformed fault zones. The Caledon Shelf to the east and the Arnhem Shelf to the west flank the WFZ while the BFZ is flanked by the Wearyan Shelf to the east and Bauhinia Shelf to the west. The 'Fault Zones' are 50-80 km wide and hundreds of kilometres long.

The McArthur Basin succession comprises sandstone, shale, carbonate, and interbedded volcanic and intrusive igneous rocks. The Tawallah Group and equivalents maintain a thickness of 3-4.5 km in both the fault zones and shelves, while the McArthur Group and equivalents thicken to 5 km in the fault zones. A deep seismic reflection survey (McArthur Basin Seismic Survey) undertaken in collaboration with Geoscience Australia showed that the entire succession is essentially horizontal and about 8 km thick. There was no evidence in the seismic data for the Batten Fault Zone (previously described as the Batten Trough) to be a separate depocentre, with the sedimentary succession appearing to continue in both directions away from the implied boundaries of the 'trough'.

The McArthur Basin is amongst the most prospective regions of the North Australian Craton. It hosts the world-class HYC lead-zinc-silver deposit (McArthur Mine), the Redbank Copper Mine and several smaller uranium and base metal deposits, as well as diamond-bearing kimberlite pipes at Merlin and Abner Range.

Last Updated: 21 February 2008



Here's a PDF on the McArthur Basin in NT that is a little more technical for those who are interested: http://conferences.minerals.nt.gov.au/cabsproceedings/Final_papers/P09_Duffett_et_al.pdf


----------



## roland (13 June 2008)

noticed this post today from Top Stocks:



> top 20 grew by about 8%, equates to roughly 85M of everything that went through to end of Monday (say 275M?) stayed went and stayed into top 20 holders... fair bit more would be expected to holders outside top20. Still room for significant trade play. Now wait for next week's figures to make sure it stayed there, and that the apparent plays of last few days are going to be consistent with what numbers we can see...




Seems like the Top 20 increased holdings by around 100M shares this week. ANZ up to 7%, HSBC up to 9%

I added another 20% this week


----------



## renim (14 June 2008)

The Macarthur River Deposit is flat, like coal, and unbelievably suited to open cut mining except for the environmental aspect of zinc/lead sulphide mining through a river bed in a tropical (read cyclonic) area of some environment value.

The Macarthur River deposit was also really had to process, but that should be ok now.

Macarthur River will generate untold profit for X Strata if they can open cut it.  This Bullman deposit could become very interesting.


----------



## kagemusha (17 June 2008)

I am from Croatia, sorry on my bad english.
Can someone help me, how many tons ADY will produce potash and lithium when reache their maximum output?
Thanks in advance


----------



## rub92me (17 June 2008)

According to the managing director Phil Thomas in his response to a Topstocks question, ADY expects to produce 9,000 tonnes of Lithium Cartbonate per annum by July 2009 and 17,000 tonnes per annum by July 2010. Potash is still unknown, but should have an estimate by July.


----------



## roland (17 June 2008)

Not sure what spurred the interest today and the resulting 6.12% advance in the SP.

I let one parcel go yesterday at 0.245 to grab some profit and reduce my average. Thought I would get them back at 0.235, but that wasn't to be 

No matter, My current holdings are still 25% up, so I am happy.

I am tempted to go a little heavier with ADY, but have to remind myself that we are still playing with a spec with not a lot of infrastructure and share dilution issues etc, etc.


----------



## kagemusha (17 June 2008)

rub92me said:


> According to the managing director Phil Thomas in his response to a Topstocks question, ADY expects to produce 9,000 tonnes of Lithium Cartbonate per annum by July 2009 and 17,000 tonnes per annum by July 2010. Potash is still unknown, but should have an estimate by July.




Thanks rub, and what about tons of iron ore in years 2009, 2010, 2011 ?

P.s. Can we believe Phil Thomas? I notice that he sell his share lately, am I correct?


----------



## kagemusha (17 June 2008)

I find this research :" _After only one full year of lithium carbonate
production from its lithium brine operation at the Salar del
Hombre Muerto in the Argentine Andes, *FMC shuttered the
facility *in July (Brown, 1999) except for limited production for
a specialized market (Saller and O’Driscoll, 2000, p. 45). The
operation was designed to produce about 12,000 metric tons per
year (t/yr) of lithium carbonate and about 5,500 t/yr of lithium
chloride (North American Minerals News, 1998), *but technical
problems *and poor market conditions forced FMC to reevaluate
its project, choosing to close the facility and purchase most of
its lithium carbonate requirements from other sources_

Maybe Thomas sell his stake because he knows about problems?!

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/450400.pdf


----------



## rub92me (17 June 2008)

kagemusha, I'm happy to help, but the iron ore info you ask for is on the ADY website explained in quite some detail. 
For the record Phil Thomas did not sell his stake in ADY. He lost part of his holding in the Opes Prime which was then sold by ANZ. 
Also I don't think an article of about 9 years ago has much relevance; market situation for Lithium has changed dramatically since then and technique to extract Lithium from Brine has improved.


----------



## roland (18 June 2008)

Well, another day of day traders playing around - but at least we gained another $0.02 or 7.69% ... pretty good in anyone's book.

Although I have worried myself to death about taking my now 33.92% profits, I have decided to longer term ADY. 

In light of the following (courtesy of a Top Stocks posting), there are quite a number of pieces of the ADY foundation puzzle soon to be set - any of which, with a related announcement will push the SP ahead:

2 x JORCS
1 X SHOUGANG 10 year contract (imminent)
1 X WISCO 10 year contract (likely imminent as per Shougang)
1 X LITHIUM TENDER SALES (After Rincon ann this can't be far off)
1 X DEMERGER (Likely have to wait on tender but coming)
1 X NEW BULMAN ACTIVITY including JORC drilling commencing 25th JUNE

I am also feeling that I wouldn't want to miss out on the demerger offering.

How may others are still holding?


----------



## renim (18 June 2008)

i tend to hold, this one gives me the warm and fuzzies.
check out yesterdays big mover in Japan.  Yuasa batteries.
reason, some joint announcement about making batteries for mitsubishi electric cars.

nb world lithium battery production (for tools etc) would equate to 100 000 car per annum equivalent.  to replace oil in cars will require about a 100 fold increase in battery production.

so who owns the old greenbushes mine?

oh yeah, the two stories i follow for buying shares
1 China's ascendency
2 the displacement of super spike oil by electricity for cars

this affects many facets, ie go long on parking lots, go short on 7-11s


----------



## MS+Tradesim (18 June 2008)

I am holding. I have about half of what I started with 4 yrs ago though as I've used equity to buy other positions.


----------



## kagemusha (19 June 2008)

Can somone tell me when is over this CFR contract with WISCO which is bad for ADY  ?
If I understood well,- ADY must deliver more 4 panamax to fulfill obligation to WISCO and then start new negotiations with buyers? Correct?


----------



## MS+Tradesim (19 June 2008)

kagemusha said:


> Can somone tell me when is over this CFR contract with WISCO which is bad for ADY  ?
> If I understood well,- ADY must deliver more 4 panamax to fulfill obligation to WISCO and then start new negotiations with buyers? Correct?




There are only a few shipments left of the original contract. After that, they have a contract for about 3 yrs on 50% of their production to WISCO, then a heads of agreement for another 7 yrs for same thing.

They are finalising negotiations right now for the other 50% of their production for the next 10 years with Shougang.


----------



## roland (19 June 2008)

An interesting note on world lithium resources:



> *World Lithium Reserves Found to be Abundant in New Report*
> 
> 
> R. Keith Evans, a geologist and industrial minerals expert has issued a free report on the world's Lithium resources and reserves.
> ...




The immense interest in fueling our future transport through electricity storage cells provides a lot of research material for study on the net. Lithium is obviously going to play a big part in the supply of the raw materials, but my impression is that it is not the only direction we will travel nor is ADY unique in it's own resources.

I remember some press regarding the University of NSW and the "plastic battery", I'll have to try and find it again. Virtually indestructable from memory with almost limitless discharge/recharge cycles.

I am worried that lithium will only be in vogue with batteries until something better is devised.


----------



## evwatkins (19 June 2008)

well dont forget the potential of the Potash, this could in time be more valuable than the lithium side.


----------



## rub92me (20 June 2008)

roland, I agree with you that Lithium batteries will not always be the best technology around, however a major shift (and associated investment) is taking place in the car industry. Their focus for now is Lithium batteries. Reserves are indeed plentiful (e.g. ADY has enough for about 400 years of production) however of shorter term interest would be production capacity.
For the next 5 years at least I'm expecting demand for Lithium to accelerate sharply and production capacity lagging.


----------



## renim (20 June 2008)

firstly   ADY appears quite diversified in its bets. 

Potash for the next green revolution (as in food production, not enviromentalism)
Iron ore, for the Chindia story
Lithium, for the electric car disruption
and lowly a lowly zinc deposit at 10% equiv grade for a surface mine!

each alone has much potential, the only thing missing is a gas/oil well somewhere.


Back to lithium, the world is basically a large lump of iron ore, but the pilbara is still valuable.  Virtually all minerals are held back by production capacity, not deposits (excluding oil), include oil if you include coal to oil or oilshale/sand extraction.    This is the first decade in maybe 70years where mineral prices are higher after than before, strange times.

Mines don't ramp up 100 fold increases in short time frame,  and the amount of announcements coming out about auto makers and lithium batteries is positively electrifying. (pun intended).

i've got a bet on a battery alternative to lithium, but for car batteries, LiFePO4 is the way to go.  Lead Acid lasted us 130years.  LiFeP04 will be cheap, safe and will cause a gigantic change.

look up 'Project Better Place' and Shai Agassi.  Their white paper is very interesting.  I'm not saying that they will be the ones, but I think their perception of the future is almost inevitable.


----------



## lioness (20 June 2008)

Renim,

You are right, they have their hands in many pies here. In fact everything except oil/gas/uranium.

With so many projects and showing so much promise, why is this stock so cheap???????????

It really should be much higher given their advanced projects nearing production over the short term.

Would ayone else like to argue against me?

I know they are waiing on a tax ruling and the demerger issue hangs but is it just me that thinks with several good announcements this will be much higher??

Also in the ASX300 now so fund managers will be buying.

I think this is a great investment. Please someone disagree as I have bought  into this at 24.5 cents.

PS Can someone throw a chart analysis in here also please


----------



## lioness (20 June 2008)

EasternGrey1 said:


> I think part of the reason for ADY's abysmal share price performance recently - on top of the ANZ Opes Prime mess - has been the cash flow position. Thursday's[?] cash flow report showed enough cash for 3 days.
> 
> We know that ADY has a heap of cash coming in soon, now that it has started its iron ore exports, but will it run out of cash first?
> 
> ...




Did anyone give an answer as to their opinion on what the share price is actually worth?? I could not find an answer to this question earlier??? Current market cap is 305 million and this seems cheap especially if they sign the 1.8 billion deal with Chinese.


----------



## roland (20 June 2008)

lioness said:


> Did anyone give an answer as to their opinion on what the share price is actually worth?? I could not find an answer to this question earlier??? Current market cap is 305 million and this seems cheap especially if they sign the 1.8 billion deal with Chinese.




Well, the share price is worth as much as the market says it is - even if it isn't, or we would like it to be more.

Right now everyone is busting a gut for news, or an announcement or something to get out the day trading bot rut that sees huge volumes of trades with little or no SP movement. I for one, don't have the capitol to play the half cent movements - and any purchase above .20 would muck up my average.

I must admit though, I do have an order sitting there at .235 for any downward spike.

I have read everything I can find on websites, forums, broker sites, related resource sites etc, etc and I am close to exhaustion.

My personal, unofficial, non recomendation, value right now is around 28 - 30 cents. There is certainly potential for the stock to drop back to 17 cents if we continue to have no news.

A decent announcement has the potential to bust through the 30 cent barrier in a flash - apart from that, then speculation (and some speculators) have a target of above 60 cents.

Time will tell, meanwhile the day traders are turning the stock into a tennis match, and it makes me dizzy watching the share price tick back and forward by half cent all day long with 20 - 40 million volume. Sort of tempting to play ?????


----------



## lioness (20 June 2008)

roland said:


> Well, the share price is worth as much as the market says it is - even if it isn't, or we would like it to be more.
> 
> Right now everyone is busting a gut for news, or an announcement or something to get out the day trading bot rut that sees huge volumes of trades with little or no SP movement. I for one, don't have the capitol to play the half cent movements - and any purchase above .20 would muck up my average.
> 
> ...





Cheers Roland, but it was worth 60 cents over 6 months ago and now they are nearing production so it should be worth more than current price.

BUT you are spot on with bot activity. They need big news quick to help smash through the 30 cent resistance. Don't think we will see 17 again but 23.5 is a good chance. The Dow tanking tonight won't help it that's for sure.


----------



## roland (21 June 2008)

OK, admitting to laziness, "rileyi" on the Top Stocks forums has come up with the following:

ADY Fe = $0.69 cps
RLL Li & Potash = $0.88 cps
Bullman - not costed, but valued at $5m - $5b


you can read the full post here: http://www.topstocks.com.au/asx_dis...eadpost&pid=243340&fid=27#d3Kwmz77-w341243340


----------



## lioness (21 June 2008)

roland said:


> OK, admitting to laziness, "rileyi" on the Top Stocks forums has come up with the following:
> 
> ADY Fe = $0.69 cps
> RLL Li & Potash = $0.88 cps
> ...




Roland, if this is the value of such projects, why is it so cheap.

Is it because they are far away from production of such projects??

I thought they had several milestones that were close to production. You also didn't mention what their iron ore is worth??

I suppose once they announce such milestones, it will be re-rated??


----------



## lioness (21 June 2008)

lioness said:


> Roland, if this is the value of such projects, why is it so cheap.
> 
> Is it because they are far away from production of such projects??
> 
> ...




Apolgies roland, just noticed fe in your post which iron ore

Now I will wait for your response. damn this short reposnse loop!


----------



## roland (21 June 2008)

lioness said:


> Roland, if this is the value of such projects, why is it so cheap.
> 
> Is it because they are far away from production of such projects??
> 
> ...




"Why is it so cheap"?

Well, I guess it's because there are more people willing to sell to make a half cent profit, than people willing to hold.

Sort of a "catch22", no point putting money into a stock that doesn't increase in value, and it's not going to increase in value until people start putting money into it.

I have no more idea than you, or many others here as to why the SP is not higher - the story of much of the Stock Market right now - ADY is not alone, I could rattle off 30 or more comparitive companies that are sitting in the same boat.

Your best bet, rather than me doing for it for, would be to read the entire thread here, then go over to Top Stocks and read the entire thread there, then hit the ADY website and read all that stuff too. Then you would know as much as the rest of us


----------



## lioness (21 June 2008)

roland said:


> "Why is it so cheap"?
> 
> Well, I guess it's because there are more people willing to sell to make a half cent profit, than people willing to hold.
> 
> ...




Roland,

Yes I have read some of that stuff but will read the rest. It seems to be that it will be re-rated when they are cashflow positive. Until then, I am trading it purely off the charts. I have bought 1.1 million shares at 24.5 cents purely off the charts. I am confident this will continue on upwards over the next 3-4 weeks with newsflow.


----------



## roland (21 June 2008)

lioness said:


> Roland,
> 
> Yes I have read some of that stuff but will read the rest. It seems to be that it will be re-rated when they are cashflow positive. Until then, I am trading it purely off the charts. I have bought 1.1 million shares at 24.5 cents purely off the charts. I am confident this will continue on upwards over the next 3-4 weeks with newsflow.




well you've got more than me, I'm feeling jealous now 

I'd be expecting a little more weakness to come over the next couple of days, but should be short lived

good luck


----------



## roland (24 June 2008)

ADY is still stuck in the doldrums. Be nice to get past this 26.5 resistance, but like most, I am thinking nothing is going to do it short of some sort of annoncement.


----------



## rx1 (26 June 2008)

Down a bit today... does any one know when they will be announcing the demerger terms? - should be soonish...???


----------



## roland (26 June 2008)

rx1 said:


> Down a bit today... does any one know when they will be announcing the demerger terms? - should be soonish...???





mmm, well 10%, or there abouts, is not really a little down...

I don't believe that anyone can provide any more info on the demerger than what has been published on the ADY website.

Some took the following announcement today as a downer, with further devaluation/dillution of the share value:




> *Loan Conversion*
> Today the Company announced the issue of over 24 million shares as a result of conversion of loan funds of US $4 million by Ya Global Investments LP.
> This brings the total amounts converted to US $13 million, leaving a balance owing on the loan of US $7 million.
> 
> ...


----------



## roland (26 June 2008)

I'm not a chart guy, but I would suggest that there is some cause for a threat of a downside. I think a lot of more learned people than I could see a dip back to .16


----------



## cordelia (26 June 2008)

Well it is the end of the financial year and there's plenty of buyers for the shares that people are getting rid of it would seem...

What is the demerger all about


----------



## mapna (26 June 2008)

What worried me the most about this stock is it keeps issueing more shares to cover its debts. The more shares it issued, the less the value of share would be unless it made more profits to cover the new issues... Today it announced to convert 24mil share @0.175 to cover 4mil debts... 

Would u sell these 24mil @ anything greater @0.175 to make profit if these are yours ???

I am always wrong.

IMHO and DYOR please.


----------



## roland (26 June 2008)

mapna said:


> What worried me the most about this stock is it keeps issueing more shares to cover its debts. The more shares it issued, the less the value of share would be unless it made more profits to cover the new issues... Today it announced to convert 24mil share @0.175 to cover 4mil debts...
> 
> Would u sell these 24mil @ anything greater @0.175 to make profit if these are yours ???
> 
> ...




I agree that it looks like the dillution is continuing with additional share issues. On the other hand is does show some level of confidence from the lender if they are prepared to take script in lieu of $$'s - even if it does dilute the share value, it does reduce the debt ... which in turn increases the company's ability to get closer to profitability.

Considering the volume, today for example, in share transactions was 33mil with little change in share value, it would be quite concievable for the market to absorb the above share issue, (if sold off) with little change in SP. Sounds like a reasonable way to offload some debt.

.... actually today was not a great example, since we lost nearly 10%, but we have had many days with ADY's share volume up to 45mil and flip-flopping $0.05 all day long.

Off loading debt is a good move, the lender taking shares to reduce debt is a good sign, we just need to be comfortable that there is no mis management with the company's finances to maintain investor confidence.


----------



## Datsun Disguise (26 June 2008)

mapna said:


> Would u sell these 24mil @ anything greater @0.175 to make profit if these are yours ???




At 25c a share this issue was worth $6m to the creditor, so the 17.5c is what they have considered a floor unless their startegy is to sell off straight away. If this is the strategy then making an extra $1 ~ 2m out of a $4m debt would probably get someone a tick on their scorecard and an extra kick in their bonus. Would be surprised if the creditor held.

I must say I don't like this kind of approach to addressing debt - if $4m in debt is hurting then we've got bigger problems to worry about.


----------



## roland (27 June 2008)

I'm out 

My self imposed stop loss got me out at $.21 with a very modest gain. Not the result I was hoping for. I'll buy back at .20 if it gets there, otherwise good luck to all ADY holders.


----------



## roland (27 June 2008)

Since PT from ADY doesn't post comments here, I have take n the liberty of copying the response from the Top Stocks website for information to ASF'ers



> *jorc and consolidation Asked by rileyi on 26-06-2008 *
> Hello Phil,
> Thank you for your previous reply.
> Announcements out today make it clear that we could see a possible further issue of shares up to another 40m for the balance of $7m loan outstanding. Since discussion of share consolidation at 1 for every 3.4, we have now gone to over 1 for every 4 held...a material change. Is there any other issues that could arise that may see this conversion rate become worse again. It would appear from the price action on the market since the announcement, that these surprises are not appreciated, and being forewarned is a far more comfortable position to be in.
> ...


----------



## aleckara (27 June 2008)

roland said:


> Since PT from ADY doesn't post comments here, I have take n the liberty of copying the response from the Top Stocks website for information to ASF'ers




Thanks for that.

I am very interested to see those JORC's. They have something like 9 mines and if those mines are not minor and can all contribute as much at least as the current one then financing should be easier with Shougang and the banks should they need that. My short term concerns with ADY is the reputation of them missing deadlines, the predictability of the price pattern hinting towards some sort of manipulation and the effects that this has on their capital raisings.

Since I'm a either hold or sell investor (have no choice in the matter) the only issue I'm concerned with after all that other nonsense is their ability to produce, their production profitability (which I hope will improve) and their cash flow. I think other investors share those concerns hence the price as it is.


----------



## roland (27 June 2008)

Another response from PT courtesy of the Top Stocks forum. Looks like PT is well aware of some of the shareholders concerns and can be applauded for taking time to respond to forum questions.



> Responses From Phillip Thomas
> 
> *Improving short term production rate Asked by mjp on 26-06-2008*
> Hi PT. Thanks as always for your willingness to respond on the forum.
> ...


----------



## lioness (27 June 2008)

Roland, you sold at the worst time. PT has stated he has a draft of 2 JORCS on his desk and is reviewing them. I suspect both will be released next week as they have a habit of releasing announcements in 2's and 3's after each other.

Also it has been falling on low volume, so even though I am sitting on a 10% loss, today was a doji star indicating it MAY be a key reversal day.

Also, I expect the selling is tax loss season so from Tuesday I will not be surprised to see this up again.

Lastly, PT has stated on his website that the demerger is 90% finished and is nearly there, so if we have to wait another month, big deal.

I understand your cap loss management rules so don't sweat it, but it would have to take a bad announcement to send this back to 16 cents.


----------



## roland (27 June 2008)

lioness said:


> Roland, you sold at the worst time. PT has stated he has a draft of 2 JORCS on his desk and is reviewing them. I suspect both will be released next week as they have a habit of releasing announcements in 2's and 3's after each other.
> 
> Also it has been falling on low volume, so even though I am sitting on a 10% loss, today was a doji star indicating it MAY be a key reversal day.
> 
> ...




Yes, I understand all that. Actually I am back on board with a smaller holding at .22. I offloaded most of my exposure, took a profit, still on board for any action and can sleep tonight without worrying - so all good


----------



## lioness (27 June 2008)

roland said:


> Yes, I understand all that. Actually I am back on board with a smaller holding at .22. I offloaded most of my exposure, took a profit, still on board for any action and can sleep tonight without worrying - so all good




Fair enough Roland, I still hold a very large amount as this one never goes down without a fight!


----------



## roland (27 June 2008)

lioness said:


> Fair enough Roland, I still hold a very large amount as this one never goes down without a fight!




Yep, I used to be like that, stubborn, but have learnt my lesson the hard way. Now I would rather run away and come back to play another day


----------



## michael_selway (30 June 2008)

roland said:


> Yep, I used to be like that, stubborn, but have learnt my lesson the hard way. Now I would rather run away and come back to play another day




Hey i dont hodl this one anymore? it has Potash & Lithium!

http://www.ady.com.au/uploads/news/c45147dee729311ef5b5c3003946c48f.pdf

Also in the above report they put $1.50 target on it







thx

MS


----------



## lioness (30 June 2008)

I hold and will continue to hold.

This will eventually be worth much more with all there resources base, once cashflow starts there will be no stopping her.

Refer to your stated report as they state it is worth $1.50 post demerger.

Nice report and well researched.


----------



## roland (30 June 2008)

Not a lot of original research there, most lifted from the ADY website. JORC was due today but didn't happen, disappointed quite a few. Pity they got Phil's surname wrong 

HSBC have topped up their holdings to 15.5% - that's a good sign


----------



## lioness (30 June 2008)

roland said:


> Not a lot of original research there, most lifted from the ADY website. JORC was due today but didn't happen, disappointed quite a few. Pity they got Phil's surname wrong
> 
> HSBC have topped up their holdings to 15.5% - that's a good sign




Roland, get smart here, they were never going to release JORC until tax loss was officially over. Expect JORC in the next few days and then several pieces of the jigsaw will come together quickly with demerger news.

I am expecting a very large increase in volume soon.


----------



## roland (30 June 2008)

lioness said:


> Roland, get smart here, they were never going to release JORC until tax loss was officially over. Expect JORC in the next few days and then several pieces of the jigsaw will come together quickly with demerger news.
> 
> I am expecting a very large increase in volume soon.




Well lioness, I wish I was a hell of a lot smarter. I was smart enough to stop out of a loss last week, smart enough to be back in and sitting even with my holdings in ADY, smart enough to quickly buy in if a run occurs, but not dumb enough to stop out again if it drops - best I can do.


----------



## gfresh (1 July 2008)

The broker recommendation on their website, which michael posted above, has some good information for those who need a detailed rundown .. 

If ADY management can pull their socks up, and meet deliverables as stated, I think confidence will return, and less games will be played with the SP - allowing that sort of pricing to be achieved. 

At the moment, I think it's really a confidence issue. That has been eroded a lot in the last 12 months, but of course the Directors will realise if they wish to do well themselves as major shareholders they need to pick up their game. They seem to be making the first inroads into this, but we'll see.


----------



## chrissyoscar (1 July 2008)

There's so much to look forward to but the way this stock is played with makes a lot of people nervous.
If we can get a few good announcements this week that'll give those on the side lines the confidence to jump in and then things should start moving.
The Lithium side of it all has everyone excited and ADY has heaps of it.


----------



## renim (1 July 2008)

a couple of dojis, lets see if it means anything or is a blank.

if you guys like lithium  what about the stock orocombre ORE.


----------



## lioness (1 July 2008)

renim said:


> a couple of dojis, lets see if it means anything or is a blank.
> 
> if you guys like lithium  what about the stock orocombre ORE.




Also, the weekly has put in a doji, it means a reversal is coming particularly with 2 in a row. I like the very low volume day today in the face of a bloodbath indicating very few are willing to sell. A good sign. All we need is a big JORC from PT on the Fe and tis will breakout quickly.


----------



## roland (1 July 2008)

Some of the lack of volume is due to the day traders losing interest. Sentiment is negative and the lack of progress is weighing heavily on confidence.


----------



## lioness (1 July 2008)

I don't agree with that Roland.

Everyone knows the news is due any day, so the fact no-one is dumping makes me smile now. If they had a sniff of bad news this would be sub 20 by now.

Stochastics also indicate they are ready for a move. JORC is going to have to disappoint for this to collapse. I agree with you though, it is balancing precariously at the moment in this bloodbath of a market, so any news that isn't up to it mean she will be slaughtered.


----------



## roland (2 July 2008)

Without a couple of ticks up, we could be looking down the barrel at $0.16. Really need the JORCs or at least some sort of positive news.


----------



## lioness (3 July 2008)

roland said:


> Without a couple of ticks up, we could be looking down the barrel at $0.16. Really need the JORCs or at least some sort of positive news.




Yes, it appear you were right after all. Game over here as 16 is a certainty on that H&S pattern. I stayed in expecting news would come but there must be issues wit JORC. Looks like I am a long term holder now.


----------



## rub92me (3 July 2008)

Held up reasonably well today on low volume with some buyers stepping up at the close. Unless the market as a whole goes really pearshaped in the next couple of weeks, I don't think we'll see that 16 cents after all.


----------



## gfresh (3 July 2008)

Apparently (taken from the regular forum PT posts under) the Iron Ore upgraded JORC report is in the hands of Director Phil Thomas, however there is still some revision being undertaken for a few items. Should be out in next few days.


----------



## roland (4 July 2008)

JORC to be released next week.

Someone from Top Stocks called them:



> I've had a brief chat to Maria at ADY melbourne office.
> 
> The JORC will not be released today. Sometime next week - she could not be more specific. Thanks Maria.




At least we didn't lose a pip today


----------



## mapna (5 July 2008)

roland said:


> JORC to be released next week.
> 
> Someone from Top Stocks called them:
> 
> ...




Roland - do you expect a good report from ADY next week???? ADY needs some good news to push it up. The late ann. might give ppl. impression about not very good news ????

I am not holding it but been watching for a while.


----------



## roland (8 July 2008)

OK, this is very 3rd hand. Posted on Top Stocks forum - having been copied off another forum. Looks legit ...



> courtesy of harrywyborn from another forum
> he emailed investor relation today:
> 
> I emailed Investor services today and this is the response
> ...


----------



## aleckara (10 July 2008)

Announcement out. 

"87.9 million tonnes with an iron grade of
more than 23% iron for indicated and inferred categories."

They mention an iron ore price of $75.55. Is that per tonne?


----------



## michael_selway (16 July 2008)

aleckara said:


> Announcement out.
> 
> "87.9 million tonnes with an iron grade of
> more than 23% iron for indicated and inferred categories."
> ...




Hm good article on ADY below, looks liek it has lithium and potash as well

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/32991/two-ways-to-play-the-lithium-boom.html

thx

MS



> Much more speculative is Admiralty Resources, listed in Australia.
> 
> It is developing two major projects in South America – Rincon Salar in Argentina, estimated to contain 1.4 million tons of recoverable lithium and 2.5 million of potash, and due to come into production in a year’s time, and Santa Barbara in Chile, an iron ore mine that’s about to start up.
> 
> ...


----------



## rub92me (17 July 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hm good article on ADY below, looks liek it has lithium and potash as well
> 
> http://www.moneyweek.com/file/32991/two-ways-to-play-the-lithium-boom.html
> 
> ...



Michael, that article is about a year old. And yes, of course they have Lithium and potash; they're the only ASX listed main play in Lithium around...


----------



## Real1ty (17 July 2008)

rub92me said:


> Michael, that article is about a year old. And yes, of course they have Lithium and potash; they're the only ASX listed main play in Lithium around...




Not quite right rub.....ORE is another that is a Lithium play and in some ways is quite similar to ADY but ADY is a lot more advanced.


----------



## rub92me (17 July 2008)

Hi Real1ty, I'm aware of ORE and they're on my watchlist. As you say, early days for them, they still have to prove the resource, etc. I don't expect them to be in production for at least 3-4 years.


----------



## mapna (20 July 2008)

Anyone know why ADY had good announcement on Friday but SP did not get push up after the ann.??? 

ADY seems moving slowly in production, getting slowly out of financial issues but still get good support from investors????

Any comments would be appreciated.


----------



## aleckara (21 July 2008)

mapna said:


> Anyone know why ADY had good announcement on Friday but SP did not get push up after the ann.???
> 
> ADY seems moving slowly in production, getting slowly out of financial issues but still get good support from investors????
> 
> Any comments would be appreciated.




I would say missed deadlines, and their cash flow position have a lot to do with it.

But generally in a bull market I don't think the decline would have been that great due to these factors. Other companies that have made it big also have had close calls. All mining stocks (particularly iron ore) have been penalised lately.


----------



## SM Junkie (21 July 2008)

ADY is not the only company that has had a good announcement, only to see no real gain in the share price. 

I have a lot of companies in my portfolio that are doing extremely well and expanding resources, but prices remain down.  

I only see this as a positive at the moment because I can expand my position and buy into the companies that have been long on my watchlist


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (24 July 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Well bounce it did and I didn't have to wait too long,
> 
> Well I'm out, very nice profits from at 16.5c entry to a 21c exit
> 
> ...




I have traded ADY in the past very successfully but have never really looked at the fundamentals closely because I viewed it as a small tonnage Magnetite play,

ie last time I looked it only had about 80Mt's grading 20% Fe, I thought sheesh thats a piss poor deposit,

I like Mag projects but they need to be 500Mt -  1Billion tonne to be of scale and also grade 30%-40% Fe

But then I realised why do these Magnetite deposits need to be so big and such high grade? Because the benefication plants required to treat/beneficate the ore to DSO saleable standard costs Billions, thats right Billions, just look at GBG ARH SDL for examples of Multi Billion Dollar Cap Ex projects, the bulk of which goes into the plants

But look at *ADY*, they have taken a 80Mt deposit grading 20% or so Fe and have gronw to a *$200m Mkt Cap company in a few years*

How has ADY managed to do this so quickly? The answer is quite simple really, they acquired a project with existing infrastrucutre ie the deposit was there, the port was there, the rail was there and most importantly what all other Magnetite players lack the plant was there

Now I don't hold ADY as its not my kind of fundamentally undervalued growth stock, however I may trade it, but what is interesting to look at is ADY's growth based on modest Magnetite production via benefication and ask who else has a good chance of replicating this?


----------



## oldblue (24 July 2008)

I don't hold ADY but have always thought that the lithium and potash were equally attractive from a speculative point of view?


----------



## aleckara (24 July 2008)

I would say that lithium and potash were MORE attractive from a 'speculative' point of view than the iron ore business however they aren't really producing as of yet in this sense. From a 'real cash flow' point of view the iron ore has a more immediate benefit.

In a sense Young Trader is right, they are managing in a way to treat an iron ore magnetite deposit at the production levels of a startup haematite project simply due to the fact that the equipment is already in place to extract and use. Well in terms of replication who else has all the factors you describe above? Admittely they do need to spend some money in order to upgrade their production so its from what I know not all there yet.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (24 July 2008)

aleckara said:


> I would say that lithium and potash were MORE attractive from a 'speculative' point of view than the iron ore business however they aren't really producing as of yet in this sense. From a 'real cash flow' point of view the iron ore has a more immediate benefit.
> 
> In a sense Young Trader is right, they are managing in a way to treat an iron ore magnetite deposit at the production levels of a startup haematite project simply due to the fact that the equipment is already in place to extract and use. Well in terms of replication who else has all the factors you describe above? Admittely they do need to spend some money in order to upgrade their production so its from what I know not all there yet.




Yes the Lithium/Potash project arguably does offer alot of value, buts thats not what the company has grown on, they have grown on their quick development and production of their Iron ore business

and as Aleckara has correctly observed, they are able to produce ship and sell DSO level ore because the infrastructure of rail and ports are in place to transport the ore, but most importantly the *Magnetite plant* is there, this is the key factor, its the Royal flush which makes this project a goer, you see  without the plant all ADY would have  is 80-100Mt's of low grade 20% Fe Mag

Such a deposit is not very attractive at all, however add in the magnetite benefication plant and hey presto it doesn't matter that the grade is only 20% as after benefication its 62% Fe and thus DSO

*At current DSO prices of $130 - $150/t and cost of mining, production and benefication being $30 - $50/t

Such an operation can net margins of $80/t - $120/t, thus even a 1Mt p.a. operation can gross $80M - $120m per annum * and if the deposit is only 80Mt's well thats still enough for 80yrs worth of production


----------



## EasternGrey1 (1 August 2008)

The ADY Quarterly Activities Report, issued yesterday, said:
_Admiralty received a notice from the liquidators of Hawkswood Investments Pty Ltd that the loan amount of A$10.8m was due. We responded by asking the Supreme Court to determine that the repayment date is 30 September 2008 which was the date agreed upon by Hawkswood Directors and ourselves. The next return date in the Supreme Court is 10 September 2008._​Can anyone tell me just what this means? It sounds like the request to the Supreme Court can't be heard before 10 Sep, in which case presumably ADY won't have to repay before then. That would give them plenty of time to get the necessary cash from iron ore exports in the meantime.
If that interpretation is right, then it seems there is nothing to worry about. Otherwise, maybe ADY is going to be stuck for cash???


----------



## Largesse (1 August 2008)

you are correct in assuming that the earliest date that they would have to settle their debt to hawkswood would be immediatly after the Sept 10 ruling, HOWEVER, i would suggest it would be very unlikely for the ruling to go against ADY, meaning that they would have until Sept 30 to settle, as stipulated in the contract.


----------



## lioness (2 August 2008)

This looks like it may turn up this week as it has gone back to its bottom range and the bollinger bands are squeezing together now indicating a move but it may be down not up?

Anyone care to comment from a chart perspective. I am sitting on losses now and the trouble is every time it goes up people just dump it along with daytraders. So is there any hope on this one??

They are due this week to announce 10 year contracts on iron ore which will give it a nice pump and then later a dump.


----------



## roland (2 August 2008)

Hi lioness, my understanding is that the dudes that picked up all the shares at 17.5 cents are selling off whenever it gets to 18 cents, hence the huge resistance at 18.

Personally, I think the bottom is somewhere between here and 16, in other words we have been sitting on the bottom for a while.

As you know, I stopped out, grabbed a few bucks and have been buying back in. 

My current average is .205 and have an order sitting there at 17. Once the Shougang financing is sorted we should see some upward movement. Also I don't really want to miss out on the demerger.


----------



## lioness (3 August 2008)

roland said:


> Hi lioness, my understanding is that the dudes that picked up all the shares at 17.5 cents are selling off whenever it gets to 18 cents, hence the huge resistance at 18.
> 
> Personally, I think the bottom is somewhere between here and 16, in other words we have been sitting on the bottom for a while.
> 
> ...




Yes Roland, that demerger is very soon as stated by the quarterly announcement stating SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS has been made. I suspect once Shougang contracts are finalised this will follow shortly after.


----------



## gxshen (8 August 2008)

lioness said:


> Yes Roland, that demerger is very soon as stated by the quarterly announcement stating SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS has been made. I suspect once Shougang contracts are finalised this will follow shortly after.




Anyone has any idea on when Shougang contracts will be finalized? The last update seemed to state that it should be in the last week. But so far no news from them, only the news that they keep on diluting the shares by issuing news notes. I feel a little bit disppointed with the delay and the management though the company looks promising in the long term. The management keep on promising, but does not make any real progress...... Hope they will figure out soon.


----------



## lioness (8 August 2008)

gxshen said:


> Anyone has any idea on when Shougang contracts will be finalized? The last update seemed to state that it should be in the last week. But so far no news from them, only the news that they keep on diluting the shares by issuing news notes. I feel a little bit disppointed with the delay and the management though the company looks promising in the long term. The management keep on promising, but does not make any real progress...... Hope they will figure out soon.




So do I. So do I, so do I, so do I etc etc etc etc etc


So do I. So do I, so do I, so do I etc etc etc etc etc


----------



## gxshen (9 August 2008)

Some shipment news on the ady website. The shipment will significantly improve the company's cashflow. 

"TWO SHIPMENTS IN THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. The vessel MV Cape Nelson departed from the Caldera Port in Chile to China on Sunday the 3rd of August, loaded with 27,640 tonnes of iron ore fines. The vessel MV Abhkazia is currently being loaded at an approximate rate of 10,000 tonnes per day and its departure to China is scheduled for this week."

In addition, hope Shougang's contract will be finalized in the coming weeks. The grade of the ore is quite high (>62%), which is favored by Chinese companies so much. The SP must rocket soon!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (9 August 2008)

gxshen said:


> The grade of the ore is quite high (>62%), which is favored by Chinese companies so much. The SP must rocket soon!




Just so you know its actually 17%-20% Fe Magnetite Iron Ore that is being *beneficated* at a nearby existing benefication plant thus bringing the *final saleable product to a 62% +* Fe DSO standard


But yes you are right the final product is 62% Fe + I just added my comments because it made me stand up and take note on how company changing it can be to have an existing plant/infrastructure in the area regardless of the low grade or small size magnetite deposit


----------



## aleckara (14 August 2008)

mayk said:


> Any thoughts for today's massive drop? What has changed. Is taking money out such a big no-no? 10000000000000000000000words




I have no idea to be honest. An announcement of a Shougang deal was due out some time ago and hasn't eventuated. They keep drawing on additional funds. At best there is a high negative sentiment on this stock.

Should have sold awhile ago. Don't see much point now though. Hate to say it but the always 'impending' good news kept me in. Now I have to wonder why the delays.


----------



## gxshen (14 August 2008)

saw the update. Another beautiful bubble with no actual progress, which really makes me sick. The management keeps on blowing these bubbles!


----------



## EasternGrey1 (15 August 2008)

Doesn't it just show that deals with the chinese are difficult. They take everything to the brink. BHP, Rio and Vale have difficulty getting deals signed before shipments start, so no wonder ADY does too.

I thought the ADY announcement was pretty positive - two shipments completed, two bigger shipments coming, financing nearer to being finalised, and cash flow situation improving.

Sure I would like all problems to just go away, but this looks OK to me. I bought some more after the ann. Time will tell.


----------



## aleckara (17 August 2008)

EasternGrey1 said:


> Doesn't it just show that deals with the chinese are difficult. They take everything to the brink. BHP, Rio and Vale have difficulty getting deals signed before shipments start, so no wonder ADY does too.
> 
> I thought the ADY announcement was pretty positive - two shipments completed, two bigger shipments coming, financing nearer to being finalised, and cash flow situation improving.
> 
> Sure I would like all problems to just go away, but this looks OK to me. I bought some more after the ann. Time will tell.




I think ADY has possibly moved from a cash negative position to a breakeven position should they be able to keep the shipments going. To be honest the lithium side has been managed much better than the I/O side and I have to wonder whether the company would have been better off without the I/O.

The fact that they are at a breakeven position means that the chance of the lithium business getting the chance to break off has increased. That is the major change in the latest announcement. Otherwise it outlines possibilities for the company but no certainities.


----------



## lioness (17 August 2008)

aleckara said:


> I think ADY has possibly moved from a cash negative position to a breakeven position should they be able to keep the shipments going. To be honest the lithium side has been managed much better than the I/O side and I have to wonder whether the company would have been better off without the I/O.
> 
> The fact that they are at a breakeven position means that the chance of the lithium business getting the chance to break off has increased. That is the major change in the latest announcement. Otherwise it outlines possibilities for the company but no certainities.




Aleckara, please explain why the demerger has a greater chance now??

I don't see the iron ore at breakeven point, they still need to install crushers and port facilities etc etc.

And why has the demerger taken so long. They state in their quarterly they expect the demerger to be finalised before end of September, so allowing for a 30 day EGM to be called, that would mean the demerger needs to take place within weeks. They have missed every deadline ever stated so don't worry, I am sure it will take much longer.

I never thought I would see this at 13 cents, if it went below 10 cents it wouldn't surprise me now. Maybe ANZ is accumulating it a lower entry to buy back PT's shares they owe him after the Opes Prime disaster. Just a thought.


----------



## gxshen (17 August 2008)

Always missing deadlines is the one that most disppoints me. They have lost credits to me. i would not believe in them any more. I prefer to not seeing any beautiful bubbles or promises that they keep on making, but real progresses (even minor).


----------



## aleckara (19 August 2008)

lioness said:


> Aleckara, please explain why the demerger has a greater chance now??
> 
> I don't see the iron ore at breakeven point, they still need to install crushers and port facilities etc etc.
> 
> ...




Well they are pulling in revenue. Considering their previous cash flow statement projections for future spending, at 'their current rate of production' they are making some money with the August shipments assuming the costs of mining are included in that figure - a large assumption I know. If anyone can clarify would be great. Of course any expansion is going to have increased cost but hopefully increased economies of scale. I consider expansions new projects per se, building on existing ones and value them when buying shares on that basis.

My point was that they may not have to raise more capital should the shipments keep happening just to keep the status quo. Of course to expand they might have to. My biggest fear was that the company would go bust before the demerger wasting the Li and Potash assets and their opportunity. Hopefully that explains my opinion however misinformed it may be.

Share price looking low at the moment. Wonder how low it can go?


----------



## lioness (19 August 2008)

aleckara said:


> Well they are pulling in revenue. Considering their previous cash flow statement projections for future spending, at 'their current rate of production' they are making some money with the August shipments assuming the costs of mining are included in that figure - a large assumption I know. If anyone can clarify would be great. Of course any expansion is going to have increased cost but hopefully increased economies of scale. I consider expansions new projects per se, building on existing ones and value them when buying shares on that basis.
> 
> My point was that they may not have to raise more capital should the shipments keep happening just to keep the status quo. Of course to expand they might have to. My biggest fear was that the company would go bust before the demerger wasting the Li and Potash assets and their opportunity. Hopefully that explains my opinion however misinformed it may be.
> 
> Share price looking low at the moment. Wonder how low it can go?




Share price is suggesting exactly thay, it will be in receivership shortly.

If they don't demerge very soon, it will be all over for this company.

I would give them 4 weeks before that happens.


----------



## gxshen (19 August 2008)

Even daytraders are not interested in this stock. I will not be surprised that it will drop below 10 cents.


----------



## aleckara (19 August 2008)

lioness said:


> Share price is suggesting exactly thay, it will be in receivership shortly.
> 
> If they don't demerge very soon, it will be all over for this company.
> 
> I would give them 4 weeks before that happens.




I sincerely hope your wrong. As much as I don't want to give too much credence to their announcement they state that they plan to repay the loans. Lets assume then that the loans are paid solely on their cash flows.

My back of the hand calc is thus:
Interestingly they burnt $30,000,000 in operation in the year till now minus the revenue they received from sales (which wasn't many). They according to the progress report earnt $7,140,000 in August now that their shipments are starting to run. Assuming every month is the same that comes to $85mil yearly revenue. To be realistic I expect $50mil (times by 0.6 just to assume that not every month will be like this) so break even.

The share price plummenting I think has come from investors expecting a lot more in the updates and holding simply because they expected a signing. It didn't eventuate but overall I think things are indeed better than they were a couple of months ago.

I think most buyers cant see a bottom and as such won't invest until they do.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (19 August 2008)

lioness said:


> Share price is suggesting exactly thay, it will be in receivership shortly.
> 
> If they don't demerge very soon, it will be all over for this company.
> 
> I would give them 4 weeks before that happens.




If you're going to make sensationalist downramping claims, perhaps you should provide support for your view, otherwise best not to comment.


----------



## petermikel (19 August 2008)

Is it true that the shortsellers are about finished and a short squeese may be about to occur.
Should ADY receive the funding as it suggests it will this will most deffinately be the catylist for a sharp move higher


----------



## rub92me (19 August 2008)

lioness said:


> Share price is suggesting exactly thay, it will be in receivership shortly.
> 
> If they don't demerge very soon, it will be all over for this company.
> 
> I would give them 4 weeks before that happens.



Care to explain how share price movement is related to receivership? They must have been bankrupt 2 years ago then, when shareprice was lower than this . Demerger has even less to do with their prospects. They can only spin-off the Lihium once they have secured a prepayment contract, which hasn't happened yet. Reasons for that have been explained in detail by ADY management in previous announcements.


----------



## cordelia (19 August 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> If you're going to make sensationalist downramping claims, perhaps you should provide support for your view, otherwise best not to comment.





yes beware of downrampers..ask yourself this:
 "who is buying all those shares being sold"

pays to think outside the square sometimes....


----------



## nomore4s (19 August 2008)

petermikel said:


> Is it true that the shortsellers are about finished and a short squeese may be about to occur.
> Should ADY receive the funding as it suggests it will this will most deffinately be the catylist for a sharp move higher




Is ADY even shortable?

I'd be surprised if it was. There is no way this has been pushed down by short sellers.

I love how everytime a stock is sold down now it's due to short sellers.


----------



## tech/a (19 August 2008)

cordelia said:


> yes beware of downrampers..ask yourself this:
> "who is buying all those shares being sold"
> 
> pays to think outside the square sometimes....




Who

people who are currently losing money---this MAY change and ADY---MAY become a casualty



nomore4s said:


> Is ADY even shortable?
> 
> I'd be surprised if it was. There is no way this has been pushed down by short sellers.
> 
> I love how everytime a stock is sold down now it's due to short sellers.





No Its not short able.

Its a stupid argument (The one about short sellers,on any stock)
At some time shorts need to be covered so they catapult a stock reversal.

Dont trade like novices,buying on HOPE!


----------



## lioness (19 August 2008)

rub92me said:


> Care to explain how share price movement is related to receivership? They must have been bankrupt 2 years ago then, when shareprice was lower than this . Demerger has even less to do with their prospects. They can only spin-off the Lihium once they have secured a prepayment contract, which hasn't happened yet. Reasons for that have been explained in detail by ADY management in previous announcements.




Rubme,

Where does it state they need the prepayment contract before allowing for the spin off to occur?? I cannot read that into any of their announcements.

As for the aggressive selling going on every day, who know whats happening here. Either someone buying on the other side or someone big offloading who has had enough of many bubbles that Phil keeps blowing.

Either way, a very depressing share price where a lot of investors are losing money at the moment.

Bigger question is can this ever recover or does it stay this low for years??????????????????


----------



## cordelia (19 August 2008)

nomore4s said:


> Is ADY even shortable?
> 
> I'd be surprised if it was. There is no way this has been pushed down by short sellers.
> 
> I love how everytime a stock is sold down now it's due to short sellers.




ADY is on the ASX list of approved short sale products...Here is the link:

http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

The list details the reported short sales together with the limit and percentage

I am not suggesting ADY is being shorted......I wouldn't know


----------



## MR. (19 August 2008)

List of Approved Short Sale Products and Approved Short Sale ETFs
Including net Short Sale positions as at end of day 18-Aug-2008


ASX     Company Name          .....                 Reported Short   .....        Short Sell Limit  .....        %

ADY     ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL.       .....              1,206    .....           113,345,784   .....       .00

No stock held.


----------



## nomore4s (19 August 2008)

MR. said:


> List of Approved Short Sale Products and Approved Short Sale ETFs
> Including net Short Sale positions as at end of day 18-Aug-2008
> 
> 
> ...




So if I'm reading this correctly there are only 1206 shares currently short sold?

Hardly enough to cause a short covering rally


----------



## aleckara (19 August 2008)

nomore4s said:


> So if I'm reading this correctly there are only 1206 shares currently short sold?
> 
> Hardly enough to cause a short covering rally




I might add that borrowed stock is probably not in this tally. The ASX only reports on 'naked short sales' btw.

I do think the company has some short positions. I know retail investors can short with some brokers (e.g CFD's which are usually hedged by the broker).

I do agree though. I actually think the people doing the selling are well, us retail investors. The lower prices go, the more retailers tend to sell (where normally lower prices encourage buyers). That assumes of course that nothing is really suss with the company of course behind the scenes.


----------



## rub92me (19 August 2008)

lioness said:


> Rubme,
> 
> Where does it state they need the prepayment contract before allowing for the spin off to occur?? I cannot read that into any of their announcements.
> 
> ...



Page 4 of their most recent investor presentation titled Demerger, last bullet: "RLL funding to come from Pre-sales agreement and note issue" .
I take that to mean that they won't proceed until they've got the pre-sales agreement in the bag.
I too find the recent slide in the share price disappointing. It is however still above the price at which I originally bought. And I still have confidence in the future of ADY. If things start falling into place in the next couple of months I'd be surprised if the shareprice wouldn't appreciate significantly. If they take longer, then I'll wait longer.


----------



## cordelia (19 August 2008)

rub92me said:


> I too find the recent slide in the share price disappointing. It is however still above the price at which I originally bought. And I still have confidence in the future of ADY. If things start falling into place in the next couple of months I'd be surprised if the shareprice wouldn't appreciate significantly. If they take longer, then I'll wait longer.





They haven't been down this low for over 18 months!  Did you just hang on to them all this time...that's confidence...and patience....


----------



## cordelia (19 August 2008)

aleckara said:


> I might add that borrowed stock is probably not in this tally. The ASX only reports on 'naked short sales' btw.
> 
> I do think the company has some short positions. I know retail investors can short with some brokers (e.g CFD's which are usually hedged by the broker).
> 
> I do agree though. I actually think the people doing the selling are well, us retail investors. The lower prices go, the more retailers tend to sell (where normally lower prices encourage buyers). That assumes of course that nothing is really suss with the company of course behind the scenes.




Here's an excerpt from an article which may clarify the confusion:

_ "But here’s the confusion: a hedge fund manager told me yesterday, in all seriousness, that there are actually two types of naked short selling: official and unofficial.

The latter is where you don’t disclose the short, as required, and simply pay the “fail fees” ($2000 a day for failure to settle) until the stock is purchased to cover the short. An “official naked short”, he told me, is where the short sale is reported to the ASX and the rules obeyed, and the ASX carries you for up to 21 days, collecting a daily fail fee until you either cover or the ASX closes you out._​
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Naked-shorting-a-myth-E5RGB?OpenDocument


----------



## rub92me (19 August 2008)

cordelia said:


> They haven't been down this low for over 18 months!  Did you just hang on to them all this time...that's confidence...and patience....



Yep, just check back far enough in this thread and you'll see. I have traded smaller parcels in between, but kept my core holding. I'm very patient. I could be wrong though :


----------



## lioness (19 August 2008)

rub92me said:


> Yep, just check back far enough in this thread and you'll see. I have traded smaller parcels in between, but kept my core holding. I'm very patient. I could be wrong though :




Rubme,

Seeing you re so patient, do you mind outlaying what you see in the future of ADY, where it is heading in value and why. Please explain your reason why you still think it is a great long term hold given their cash strapped position and management failures of constantly over promising and never delivering on time. We are still waiting for contracts, demerger etc etc


----------



## roland (19 August 2008)

Fact #1 - unless there are some insiders around, then no one knows more than anyone else with what is going on with ADY

Fact #2 - the share market is in a total mess at the moment and ADY is not the only stock not performing - in fact I would say that they are holding up better than others that should be doing better

ADY's resources haven't changed, the lithium, potash and iron ore are still there. In fact the resource value has increased since we started on thus journey.

Don't under estimate the negative effect that the site TopStocks has on the SP with all the whinging that goes on over there. Remember that the ADY website has a direct link to TopStocks and anyone doing research on ADY will come across the negativity from the forum

China, as we all know, are currently totally blinkered with the Olympic games and nothing is going to happen until after the games.

My suggestion is that we all be patient, let the SP flop around and worry about something else.


----------



## cordelia (19 August 2008)

rub92me said:


> Yep, just check back far enough in this thread and you'll see. I have traded smaller parcels in between, but kept my core holding. I'm very patient. I could be wrong though :




oh well that makes more sense..... well good luck i hope all your patience and committment pays off


----------



## aleckara (20 August 2008)

roland said:


> Fact #1 - unless there are some insiders around, then no one knows more than anyone else with what is going on with ADY
> 
> Fact #2 - the share market is in a total mess at the moment and ADY is not the only stock not performing - in fact I would say that they are holding up better than others that should be doing better
> 
> ...




I have to agree with most of the above. I do think the Topstocks forum has done a lot of damage to the SP. The downs have been on comparatively low volume to me and I've noticed it doesn't take much selling to lower the price. The buyers aren't there (instro's are not interested in small stock like ADY a lot of the time and retailers are not knowing where the bottom is).


----------



## rub92me (20 August 2008)

lioness said:


> Rubme,
> 
> Seeing you re so patient, do you mind outlaying what you see in the future of ADY, where it is heading in value and why. Please explain your reason why you still think it is a great long term hold given their cash strapped position and management failures of constantly over promising and never delivering on time. We are still waiting for contracts, demerger etc etc



Basically I see tremendous potential for ADY to become 2 great companies.
They are no more 'cash strapped' than they were 2 years ago. 
I think ADY is learning the hard way what it is like to a) Do business in South America and b) Dealing with the Chinese. On a) they have been taken for a ride by sub-contractors and partners that didn't deliver. Lots of should've / could've in that story, but let's hope they've learned their lesson from that. With a bit of luck they'll get some damages back. On b) management have been too optimistic in their expectations and projections of being able to negotiate long term deals. I think it is still moving in the right direction though. Something good has to happen in the next 4-6 weeks. Here's hoping that it will.


----------



## cordelia (20 August 2008)

aleckara said:


> I have to agree with most of the above. I do think the Topstocks forum has done a lot of damage to the SP. The downs have been on comparatively low volume to me and I've noticed it doesn't take much selling to lower the price. The buyers aren't there (instro's are not interested in small stock like ADY a lot of the time and retailers are not knowing where the bottom is).





You can speculate till the cows come home but if you care to look it's all there....It's actually tragic how many people believe what they read, not only in forums such as these, but also in the newspaper......

The Internet is a cesspool of rumour, trickery and lies constructed by those who feel strong hiding behind a screen......If you really take that acronym seriously, DYOR, find out what it really means....

Let's face it, how can a share price change so dramatically over a few days when the fundamentals are pretty much the same? It's all based on rumour and lies..Try to read between the lines....and stay clear of the stampede

i don't hold ADY but I have been following the stock for sometime....


----------



## gxshen (21 August 2008)

It seems that 10 cents would be the bottom in the current stage. Whether SP will rise depends on whether they can have real progresses in their projects and in the deals with Chinese steel companies.


----------



## roland (21 August 2008)

Release Time IMMEDIATE
Date 20 August 2008
*Rincon Salar Project Update*

*HIGHLIGHTS*
• Contracts signed for 15,000 tonne per annum high grade sodium sulphate plant
• Second batch of lithium brine completed producing 40 tonnes of final brine ready to be
crystallised. Ponds will be refilled in two weeks.
• Commercial viability of potassium sulphate being investigated

The Board of Directors are delighted to report that we have signed a contract and paid a deposit to HPD, an American engineering company specialising in crystallisation and evaporation of salt brines, which is a fully owned subsidiary of Veolia, to build a sodium sulphate purification plant capable of producing 2 tonnes per hour of detergent grade sodium
sulphate (99.1%). The plant will be constructed in Spain, over a period of ten months. The construction cost is 1.5m euros.

Argentina imports 70,000 tonnes per annum of sodium sulphate at an FOB cost of US$275 according to the latest customs figures. Brazil imports 250,000 tonnes per year at a similar price. Other net importer is Chile. We are having detailed discussions with two buyers interested to acquire all the production.

For the lithium operation we are producing 140,000 tonnes per annum of low grade material ideal for the lithium production process. The Rio Grande mine is fully operational producing 10,000 tonnes of sodium sulphate every two weeks.

As a byproduct of the lithium process, substantial amounts of potassium sulphate (Sulphate of Potash) are being produced at very low cost. We have decided to pursue this opportunity and become a commercial provider as soon as we can negotiate a take off contract. Work is continuing on the potash production development.

Lithium Production
The second batch of lithium brine has been produced and when the large centrifuge is delivered and installed, we will commence crystallisation of the lithium brine and produce final 99.0+% lithium carbonate product. At present we are using small centrifuges capable of only ten kilo batches. The technical team are very pleased at the small losses of lithium incurred as the brine is purified.

Share Price Weakness
The Admiralty share price has declined over the past weeks and many shareholders have expressed their concern. The Directors and senior management are implementing all our strategies and working with our bankers, clients and contractors to achieve our objectives as
soon as is practical. Some of these arrangements are complex and are resource and time intensive.

In particular, preparations are in place to repay the Hawkswood and YA Global Investment debts when they fall due. The US$200m debt facility being developed by our investment bankers is not a converting note, but senior debt secured by the Company. The due diligence process is going extremely well. The demerger is independent of any financing as each entity
has sufficient assets and its own project financing opportunities.

The debt owed to Admiralty by Cia Minera Santa Barbara is US$39.95 million which is due to be repaid on 18 February 2009. This debt is controlled by the Japonesa Master Agreement, loan and fixed charge documents.

The SBLC security being offered by our iron ore clients enabling us to drawdown a $40m facility from our (and their) bankers is being progressed on a daily basis. None of our financing arrangements are subject to the share price being at any particular level. The main observation is that it is unlikely that the only converting note holder able to convert of the next
months will do so when the share price is substantially below the conversion price of 17.5 cents.

Yours sincerely,
Phillip Thomas
Managing Director


----------



## gxshen (21 August 2008)

The new update seems to tell more truth and realities than all the previous ones. At least, from a more realistic standingpoint, they let investors know what actual progresses that they made and what the difficulties that they face. This can avoid boosting too high expectation from the investors. This is also a good improvement from the management. Hope they can keep this style in the future.


----------



## gxshen (22 August 2008)

anyone has any ideas on the SP fast rise in these two days? Any good news coming? Or else? I am considering if i need to buy more.


----------



## lioness (22 August 2008)

gxshen said:


> anyone has any ideas on the SP fast rise in these two days? Any good news coming? Or else? I am considering if i need to buy more.




Looks like a dead cat bounce to me as the volume is really small. You need 50mill plus volume for confirmation to confidently buy this pup.

I hold but won't touch this again when I get out as it is too dangerous with their cash strap position. The fact these contracts just don't get signed means something is missing behind the scenes.

Avoid in my view. I will be looking for an exit door around 16 cents which is previous support.


----------



## rub92me (22 August 2008)

Sell off was on relatively low volume too...
I think your logic is a bit flawed there, lioness. If contracts don't get signed then the price probably won't reach 16 cents. If they do get signed, then the cash flow is no longer a short-term concern and the share price may get a good boost beyond 16 cents.


----------



## rub92me (1 September 2008)

It looks like some interest is returning in ADY in the past couple of trading days, and volume is picking up. I've noticed in the past that ADY can be a bit leaky when it comes to market announcements so hopefully early signs of positive news to come soon.


----------



## aleckara (2 September 2008)

lioness said:


> Looks like a dead cat bounce to me as the volume is really small. You need 50mill plus volume for confirmation to confidently buy this pup.
> 
> I hold but won't touch this again when I get out as it is too dangerous with their cash strap position. The fact these contracts just don't get signed means something is missing behind the scenes.
> 
> Avoid in my view. I will be looking for an exit door around 16 cents which is previous support.




I wonder, did you get out at all? Considering it went to 16.5, and back down to 15.5 today. Time will tell whether that is a good decision or not. I guess if you can't take the risk get out. This stock was never about sure money, but if everything comes out ok has the potential to boom quite high. High risk/high return profile. You can always come in when the risk subsides and still have exposure to it, albeit at a lower return (price will move a little by then).


----------



## dbf2407 (2 September 2008)

Anyone care to comment on below web alert 
Have been a very long holder of ADY if this is about them. ?



Ultrabulk S.A. v. Admiralty Resources NL - 1:2008cv07622 - Justia ...
Aug 28, 2008 ... Justia Federal Filings - New York Southern District Court - Contract - Marine - Ultrabulk SA v. Admiralty Resources NL.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (2 September 2008)

dbf2407 said:


> Anyone care to comment on below web alert
> Have been a very long holder of ADY if this is about them. ?
> 
> 
> ...




Dunno. I've just emailed ADY to see what's going on. I'll update here if I get any joy in response. Doesn't seem to be any further info available for the docket.


----------



## J.B.Nimble (2 September 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Dunno. I've just emailed ADY to see what's going on. I'll update here if I get any joy in response. Doesn't seem to be any further info available for the docket.




Hmmm... given that Santa Fe missed delivery of some 410,000 Tonnes, one could guess that Ultrabulk were contracted to transport the missing tonnes, missed out on the shipment(s), and is having a go for breach of contract... Adds another dimension to the legal actions against Besalco/Santa Fe. Getting very messy...


----------



## MS+Tradesim (3 September 2008)

*Removed names. Here is the reply I received from ADY:*

"Dear XXXX, 

Thank you for your email. 

We haven’t been, formally or informally, advised that Ultrabulk has filed a court case against Admiralty. 

Admiralty entered into a charter party contract with Ultrabulk S.A. for our last shipment, the Abkhazia. 

The ship has not yet arrived to port and the freight has been paid for. Therefore, there are no evident reasons for ADY to understand why they would file a court case. 

Kind regards, 

XXXX"


----------



## dbf2407 (3 September 2008)

Interesting reply
Hmmm.................................. no longer holding ADY

See what happens over the next few months ????


----------



## mayk (18 September 2008)

This stock has almost lost 50% of its value in two weeks. What is happening? Is this just the general market sentiment or something more related to this stock. 

They have to announce many things, maybe they are weighting for a suitable time?


----------



## rub92me (24 September 2008)

Looks like some people closed their shorts on ADY today  ; up about 35% on nice volume. Sheer momentum could lift this a bit further tomorrow. News should be out soon on paying back the loan. Looks like the punters expect it to be good news.


----------



## rub92me (25 September 2008)

After the second market announcement today I think management have a bit more explaining to do.  In fact they're now admitting that the court decision was known by them before yesterday, yet they waited until today to inform the market, while saying 'we know nothing' in their original response to the ASX. WTF!


----------



## mayk (25 September 2008)

I think if the court was held openly, then that decision should have been known to may people attending the court, or could have easily asked the registrar for the outcome. 

Having said that administration is obviously not doing a great job shown by the share price..


----------



## MS+Tradesim (25 September 2008)

rub92me said:


> After the second market announcement today I think management have a bit more explaining to do.  In fact they're now admitting that the court decision was known by them before yesterday, yet they waited until today to inform the market, while saying 'we know nothing' in their original response to the ASX. WTF!




I'm not sure if the court decision was 'material' as it changes nothing. The loan is due on or before the 30/9/08. The court affirmed that is the case. Had the court found against ADY and awarded, say interest, costs and damages to Hawkswood then that decision would, IMO, be 'material' to the share price.

IMO, the run up was simply self-reinforcing and momentum driven - as Soros would say, it is reflexive. The market acts, sees itself acting, and acts again.  Just my opinion.


----------



## rub92me (25 September 2008)

Yep, that's a good point MS.  However they could have at least made reference to the court decision as a _possible_ explanation of what happened to the shareprice yesterday, and then provided the rationale you used to exonerate themselves. They already had some bad press recently about their disclosure practices, and this will only add fuel to the fire: rightly or wrongly.


----------



## diliff (1 October 2008)

Suspended.. Ouch. For how long and what were they hiding? I'm thanking my lucky stars I didn't buy in a week ago, when they were looking like a bargain at .70ish and the stochastics were screaming buy. 

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24430032-462,00.html


----------



## mayk (2 October 2008)

Well apparently ADY has fallen for the credit crunch, they have renegotiated their loan for a measly 37% p.a 

Lets see what happens next, at least they get some breathing space for 3 months. Tough time for holders of this stock I guess.


----------



## rub92me (2 October 2008)

From their annual report it appears that they have already secured 5 million from one credit provider, and awaiting internal approval for another 5 million convertible note to be received before the end of October. Debt has indeed become very expensive, but not much that can be done about that now. So from a cashflow perspective they look to be safe for another 3 months. A lot can happen in that time. At a minimum they need:
1) A signed contract for offtake of iron ore and attached letter of credit
2) Make a decision on their tender for the Lithium offtake and prepayment.
If they can get that over the line in the next 3 months than things should turn around (and hopefully boost the shareprice).
Not too much to ask for. So Phil Thomas: show us why you deserverved a 500K salary this year!


----------



## MS+Tradesim (2 October 2008)

I'm going to repeat Rub's post because it perfectly echoes my thoughts at the moment:

From their annual report it appears that they have already secured 5 million from one credit provider, and awaiting internal approval for another 5 million convertible note to be received before the end of October. Debt has indeed become very expensive, but not much that can be done about that now. So from a cashflow perspective they look to be safe for another 3 months. A lot can happen in that time. At a minimum they need:
1) A signed contract for offtake of iron ore and attached letter of credit
2) Make a decision on their tender for the Lithium offtake and prepayment.
If they can get that over the line in the next 3 months than things should turn around (and hopefully boost the shareprice).
Not too much to ask for. So Phil Thomas: show us why you deserverved a 500K salary this year!


----------



## SCHUMACHER (5 October 2008)

lioness said:


> Looks like a dead cat bounce to me as the volume is really small. You need 50mill plus volume for confirmation to confidently buy this pup.




Well Lioness ...You got your wish..........ADY traded over 50 million shares on friday.....I loaded up at the open at 4.4c
cheers SCHU


----------



## roland (9 October 2008)

Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.

ADY -62.27%


----------



## aleckara (9 October 2008)

roland said:


> Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.
> 
> ADY -62.27%




I've lost a bit too. No use selling now though - my holding is not that much now anyways which is why I didn't look at it. Oh well, live and learn - still young.

I just received an email from Maria (ADY Investor Relations) clarifying a few things. Still there is some things there to be concerned about. The company is in financial distress and the bondholders here are king with their recent agreement. They really wanted to shift the leftovers to them rather than us.

Hope they don't go bust. I still think Lithium will be the next thing. Just don't know if ADY will be the one to do it. Maybe a bigger player (i.e SQM, BHP or whoever else) will end up having the field, and in that case there is no use in investing in that bigger company - it is factored into the price already.


----------



## roland (9 October 2008)

actually to put it into context, I've made 85 trades with ADY since Feb 2005

trading realised profit is $8,319
currently sitting on an unrealised paper loss of $11,489

so could be worse, and may get worse ???? - who knows


----------



## sjx (10 October 2008)

- Hi, I'm new here. 

Wow these guys are really taking a beating.. Maybe they just can't come up with the required funds..      guess we'll just have to wait it out, but now that they're at 3.9c, im almost.... considering buying more..

Lithium seems like a promising thing at the moment.. so either these guys find their groove and start moving up, or who knows..


----------



## rub92me (10 October 2008)

Their Lithium tender for a 10 year offtake went out more than 2 months ago according to ADY announcements. In current market conditions it is hard to imagine that anyone would commit to a price or a substantial prepayment ($50 million) for a 10 year contract. If any of them would have that kind of money to spend they could buy the entire company at current share price and get some free iron ore to boot! The battery market could take a beating too over at least the next year or two which would reduce Lithium demand and put pressure on the price.


----------



## aleckara (10 October 2008)

roland said:


> actually to put it into context, I've made 85 trades with ADY since Feb 2005
> 
> trading realised profit is $8,319
> currently sitting on an unrealised paper loss of $11,489
> ...




It's a bear market. Most investments are in the red. Plus since I work for a company with share trading restrictions most of my money was tied up in a stock that dropped like crazy.

Managed to get out today after some negotiation off it but the damage has been done. But I think it can get worse - the China piece of the puzzle has yet to fall and that could be the last domino. Chinese demand is slowing atm as evidenced by Mt Gibson's announcement. No rush to jump in atm I think until I can see positive momentum (fundamentally in terms of news and price). Lithium i can see demand rising albeit from a small base as hybrids will go through lithium (i.e a 300kg battery in each car and more people own cars than laptops). Even if car sales slow that gives carmakers these days more reason to switch to these cars - they don't use fuel and they know if they don't do it they will go under eventually. Great motivation to finally make a change.


----------



## rub92me (29 October 2008)

Trading halt relating to a possible sale of an 'important asset'. Unlikely they are talking about Phil Thomas, because he's been more of an expensive liability. : Maybe they're selling their iron ore business to the infamous Mr Farkas Klein, the owner of Wyndham Exploration SA (40%JV partner of Vallenar Iron ore) and imho the main reason they are in so much strife. The same Mr Farkas Klein is also the owner of Minera Santa Fe, the very same company that shafted ADY by not delivering on their iron ore contract causing a huge loss.


----------



## mayk (29 October 2008)

rub92me said:


> Trading halt relating to a possible sale of an 'important asset'. Unlikely they are talking about Phil Thomas, because he's been more of an expensive liability. : Maybe they're selling their iron ore business to the infamous Mr Farkas Klein, the owner of Wyndham Exploration SA (40%JV partner of Vallenar Iron ore) and imho the main reason they are in so much strife. The same Mr Farkas Klein is also the owner of Minera Santa Fe, the very same company that shafted ADY by not delivering on their iron ore contract causing a huge loss.




IS this a rumor? If they can sell the Iron ore business, will it bring in the mulla for ADY? 

I was ready to grab alot of ADY if they went down to 1cent, don't think it will happen now, if the deal went through.


----------



## rub92me (29 October 2008)

mayk said:


> IS this a rumor? If they can sell the Iron ore business, will it bring in the mulla for ADY?
> 
> I was ready to grab alot of ADY if they went down to 1cent, don't think it will happen now, if the deal went through.



It's just a guess, mayk. In my view they only have 2 important assets: their iron ore and their Lithium. Of course they could be talking about just some of their many iron ore tenements that have not yet been explored.


----------



## shccbell (29 October 2008)

Well I don't really care sold out a few days ago - big big loss. Whatever they do they need to have enough money to cover their very expensive burn rate for a minimum of 6 month, if they are to change market perspective. If they can change from a train heading for a cliff to a going concern then I will reinvest but not until that is actually clear.

I'm not sure how much their IO business is actually worth in the present market but its sure to be sold at a huge discount as all know ADY can't survive without new money and no one is going to lend to them and a capital raising is virtually impossible no sophisticated investors left out there for ADY.

Best of luck to holders


----------



## MS+Tradesim (31 October 2008)

Today's announcement:



> MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING SIGNED FOR
> THE SALE OF RINCON LITHIUM LIMITED
> The Board of Admiralty Resources NL has signed a binding Memorandum of
> Understanding (MOU) with Charge Resources Pty Ltd for the sale of the whole of the
> ...





This is very interesting. I checked on ASIC. Charge Resources Pty Ltd was created on 20/10/08. I suspect they found investors willing to pony up money towards the Lithium project but who refused to touch the iron ore side of ADY. Simple solution? Create a brand new company and spin off the Li business into it. None of the fuss of the demerger and the Li is free and clear of the iron business hassles. Any money that PT is somehow involved in the new company either as an investor or a director.


----------



## rub92me (31 October 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Today's announcement:
> This is very interesting. I checked on ASIC. Charge Resources Pty Ltd was created on 20/10/08. I suspect they found investors willing to pony up money towards the Lithium project but who refused to touch the iron ore side of ADY. Simple solution? Create a brand new company and spin off the Li business into it. None of the fuss of the demerger and the Li is free and clear of the iron business hassles. Any money that PT is somehow involved in the new company either as an investor or a director.



Yep, this stinks to high heaven. First completely balls up your iron business by having the wool pulled over your eyes by shrewd South Americans and then selling a business that has superior economics to iron ore by about 8 times and should be worth about 500 million for a fraction of that.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (31 October 2008)

Rub,

That's exactly what I'm thinking *hasn't* happened. I don't believe PT would let the Li go. He knows it inside out. He's spent years on it. The iron business was always about getting cashflow, which never happened. For the sake of ADY shareholders they have to do what they can to keep the company afloat, but I think we can look forward to Charge Resources doing an IPO at some stage and I would GUESS with a reserved portion or discount for ADY holders.


----------



## rub92me (31 October 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Rub,
> 
> That's exactly what I'm thinking *hasn't* happened. I don't believe PT would let the Li go. He knows it inside out. He's spent years on it. The iron business was always about getting cashflow, which never happened. For the sake of ADY shareholders they have to do what they can to keep the company afloat, but I think we can look forward to Charge Resources doing an IPO at some stage and I would GUESS with a reserved portion or discount for ADY holders.



The original deal for ADY holders was they would get the Rincon Lithium business for _free_ as a spin-off. If you are correct, the best ADY holders can expect is a discount. So maybe PT still has a personal stake in the Li business and it is a good deal for him. I don't know, time will tell. A far superior deal for ADY holders in my opinion would have been to sell off the iron ore business and keep the Lithium. Why keep something that you have already proven you can't manage?


----------



## MS+Tradesim (31 October 2008)

rub92me said:


> The original deal for ADY holders was they would get the Rincon Lithium business for _free_ as a spin-off. If you are correct, the best ADY holders can expect is a discount. So maybe PT still has a personal stake in the Li business and it is a good deal for him. I don't know, time will tell. A far superior deal for ADY holders in my opinion would have been to sell off the iron ore business and keep the Lithium. Why keep something that you have already proven you can't manage?




I agree. I'm just taking a guess at what *is* going on, not necessarily what *should* be happening. The Li was my primary interest in ADY all along. I'm not holding at the moment but have been awaiting a re-entry point. Now I have no idea until more info is available.


----------



## mayk (1 November 2008)

In the wake of latest circumstances, what is the future of ADY? How much is their Iron Ore business worth? 

Can someone crunch the numbers? Is anyone going to the agm in Melbourne?


----------



## Fisherman99 (2 November 2008)

ADY has no future without Rincon. Nobody will give them cash anymore, they cheated on their investors, they are burning cash. Look at their last quarterly cashflow report, they spent 12.4 millions for production, 1.8 millions for the management. No shipment before 02.2009. There won"t be any improvement in their IO business because they don`t have the monies for the necessary investments, because the management spends the monies for their own good. Last year, they spent 3.5 millions on their own salaries, 2.3 millions for "consultancy + professional expenses" (PT+friends, too???), 872.797 for travel and entertainment (food, drink, women?), 666.153 for motor vehicles (Bentley or Rolls?), 160.411 for office furniture and 3 millions for "overheads" - round about 10 millions for the last year. Read their annual report... Quite a nice party - we paid for it...  My opinion is, that this whole thing was planned by PT and his friends. Why should they share any future profits with the ADY-shareholders if they`re able to put the monies in their own pocket? The cash is on the table (Lithium-Tender), but ADY didn`t take it - because "Charge Resources" will do so... And guess who`s behind Charge Resources... ADY was just the instrument for collecting money from investors to get Rincon and Santa Barbara financed and developed - now they are taking over our assets on the cheap. Next step: selling Santa Barbara / going into receivership or going straight into receivership...


----------



## sjx (3 November 2008)

This company is a joke now.. 

They are criminals. PT now resigned (probably a good thing..)

Looks like i missed the exit point of Friday.. Should have known


----------



## SM Junkie (3 November 2008)

Thank god I only had a small position in this company.  I have already lost 95% of my investment, so nothing is left but a few hundred. Only held for the Lithium, so I got burnt with the rest of you. 

I guess this is the nature of the beast and a bit of a harsh learning lesson.


----------



## shccbell (3 November 2008)

This will be the last time I post on this joke of a company. I'm bitter yes losing some $60K through believing PT's mis truths. The reality this isn't a normal situation and trying to lean to much from this could be dangerous. The company and its directors bordered on acting illegally and IMHO deliberately try to mis lead investors. 

The company was a spec but PT kept telling the market contracts and funding where effectively done. The de-merger  was smoke and mirrors designed to keep people in the stock and allowing many closely connected to the company to exit at high prices. 

I will never believe a SPEC's CEO ever again none of them can be trusted. I believe the who thing stinks and I still can't believed I got caught up in the nonsense.


----------



## prawn_86 (3 November 2008)

Very tough break for holders. 

Why was the management allowed to sell of a large assett without shareholder approval? Is it because it was classified as 'non core'? If so, who does these classifications?

Also, would/should there have been due diligence carried out in order to sell to a $1 private company?


----------



## sjx (3 November 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> Also, would/should there have been due diligence carried out in order to sell to a $1 private company?




From my knowledge.. I would of thought absolutely. This is all very unorthodox if you ask me. The whole saga has left the bitter taste that so many feared.. (including myself)



shccbell said:


> T




I feel for you shccbell.. many have been burnt hard I suspect, I've lost quite a bit. The dermerger was a joke. They are cheats it seems. I know a few who have registered complaints with ASIC. I am yet to put one in myself. All this happened very, very quickly. 

It seems very strange that Charge Resources - a company registered on the 10th of October comes up with that much cash to purchase a company in such a short time.. Most of us .. (i would actually assume all of us) were ultimately in it for the lithium, and they willingly trade off our prospects with what seems a bi-company.. lol what a con

(charge resources asic listing) 

http://www.search.asic.gov.au/cgi-bin/gns030c?acn=133_792_524&juris=9&hdtext=ACN&srchsrc=1


So now the only question is what happens next.. maybe they'll go down? I haven't even exited yet. Who else hasn't exited. Scchbell, prawn? The next week will be an interesting one.. Who knows when the next suitable exit might arise.. 

not happy jan!..


----------



## mayk (3 November 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> Why was the management allowed to sell of a large asset without shareholder approval? Is it because it was classified as 'non core'? If so, who does these classifications?




My understanding is, if the company is not producing/extracting the resource, it can be sold with BOD approval.

I am still holding this, but a really small parcel. I am almost net zero, as I traded this company a bit. 

I sincerely sympathize with those of you who have lost tens of thousand of dollar in this.

Still no one answered my question, is their Iron ore business worth anything?


----------



## sjx (3 November 2008)

mayk said:


> Still no one answered my question, is their Iron ore business worth anything?




Well in my opinion no.


Iron prices have have been at a record high, and hasn't Admiralty already proven that they can't manage this? Did their iron business even make a profit? I reviewed the annual report when it came out but I've forgotten.


----------



## rub92me (3 November 2008)

mayk said:


> Still no one answered my question, is their Iron ore business worth anything?



Their iron ore business has been running at a loss since production started. The really worrying thing is that production has actually declined according to their latest announcement and is now at a laughable 15-20,000 tonnes per month. And they seem to be burning through 4 million dollars a month to achieve it which is clearly not sustainable.


----------



## Busyboy50 (3 November 2008)

Yep. Count me in as another mug who believed the demerger story and the potential of lithium. Have to say am very suspicious about new company emerging to buy the lithium assets at such a convenient time. And no, don't believe ADY shareholders will be given any preferred status at IPO - if you believe that, you'd believe in the tooth fairy. Yep, we've been dudded - I'm just not sure whether it simply poor management or something more sinister....and I speak here as a VRE shareholder, I reckon THAT mob set new benchmarks in poor management...


----------



## walterp96 (4 November 2008)

I totally agree with you both.  This smells bad. It really looks like a scam. Also, according to the announcments, Thomas is still on the board. I am living in France and I would like to know if it is possible in Australia to request an investigation on this ? Rincon was the family jewels and Thomas just gave them away for a free lunch ???? This is criminal. I want my money back - every cent of it.


----------



## walterp96 (4 November 2008)

Does anybody know who "West, Mark Griffith" is ?
Especially if he's in any way related or connected with board members of ADY ?
Or does anybody have background information about CHARGE RESOURCES  PTY ?


----------



## mayk (5 November 2008)

walterp96 said:


> I totally agree with you both.  This smells bad. It really looks like a scam. Also, according to the announcments, Thomas is still on the board. I am living in France and I would like to know if it is possible in Australia to request an investigation on this ? Rincon was the family jewels and Thomas just gave them away for a free lunch ???? This is criminal. I want my money back - every cent of it.




http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.ns...mpanies+or+people?openDocument#complaint_form

You won't get your money back, you took this risk, so you could be rewarded. The risk became risk and you lost. Just shows that fundamentals sometimes are not rock solid.


----------



## walterp96 (5 November 2008)

Thanks for the link.
I agree with you about taking a risk. My risk evaluation included financial, geographic and economic elements. I did not consider that being ripped of was among the options. Giving away Rincon Salar for 36$m to a company freshly created (actually 10 days ago) is more than suspicious. Giving away all the rights, patents, etc. even more so. It looks like it was simply "handed over" without much defending of Admiralty's (and its shareholders) interest.


----------



## J.B.Nimble (6 November 2008)

Couldn't agree more - giving away Rincon Lithium was an outrage. There were so many ways that this could have been floated out in previous months with equity interest to ADY shareholders and returning some cash to ADY that one can only wonder at the competence and integrity of the directors. How could one have such a gem of a resource and screw it up so badly. Yes, the credit crunch could be cited as extenuating circumstances, however it just feels amateurish or crooked - take your pick. I, for one, would love to see someone set up a database of directors - the good, the bad, and the downright ugly - so that we can more easily see the track record of their brilliance, incompetence, integrity, or otherwise. There are companies I would love to invest in but for similar doubts - never again a company involving PT...


----------



## sjx (10 November 2008)

Still no announcements or news directly from this company... Unbelievable. 

Holding onto my ADY shares for now.. while management have proven that they are terrible at handling IO, I firmly believe that demand for IO will rise in the coming months and maybe....

....just, maybe ADY management might get their act together and sort themselves out with the cash left over from the Rincon Salar sale.. hell, maybe they'll actually make a profit from the Cia Minera Santa Barbara IO mine..

am i being to optimistic?


----------



## roland (10 November 2008)

Hi Guys,

This is 3rd hand now, copied from another forum claiming to have copied it from yet another forum. Take it for what it is worth.....




> This was posted on another site by T_Oberlaender.
> 
> Quote-
> 
> ...


----------



## sjx (10 November 2008)

Thanks for posting that Roland for the ASF members. I saw that a few days ago on HC.. 

I don't know what to think of it really..

Here's what I mean: 

1. If he wasn't so aggressive and defensive in his reply.. do you think he would have been hounded for maybe not caring? Would it have appeared fake if this was the case? 

2. And now he's from what I've read.. under a bit of pressure in regard to that response, because he did get a little rude and quite defensive at the end of his reply.. (naming the recipients comments deplorable.. and calling him a fool etc)


While it does seem like a logical reply.. by offering a few answers, I honestly think that there is something else behind this to be perfectly honest. And when he mentions that his the 4th largest shareholder or whatever; I believe much of this is held with Panopus.


Regards,


----------



## sjx (14 November 2008)

Trading halt requested.. hrmm, very interesting

It seems the sale of rincon has run aground somewhat..


----------



## ricm (17 November 2008)

To let SH's know here...

_To the mods, hope this doesn't contravene any forum rules, if so, i apologise_.

You can contact the author of this post at:
prescotts@bigpond.com.au

The following was initially posted, of which it has positively fired up to say the least:



I feel shareholders are not being given the chance to help the company resolve the finance issue. expecially hawkswood loan. its only 10.8 mill for gods sake.

GIVEN THE OPPURTUNITY I BELIEVE ALL SHAREHOLDERS WOULD PREFER TO HELP THE COMPANY SURVIVE THIS MINOR BS SITUATION

This is a credit problem not future vision problem. If we had the capital we require this company would work. and survive.


My Proposal.

We have a charge over all assets by Hawkswoods. we cant Demerge rincon because of this or re-finance

Why can't existing shraeholders be offered to chance to set up a SH loan fund for the company eg $35 million. we SH put in say $2000 each on a voluntary basis as loans funds to company. This will be a convertable loan fund at a fixed SP say 2 cents exercisable for up to 5 years.

1. We get shares at a chepa price down the track whens the Co. goes 100 bagger.
2. Its is voluntary for those who want to participate. Must be a minimum take up of at leat $28 mill for our immediate loans.

Then we push for demerger and IPO of Rincon assets. This separates receivership risk to only IO assets.

Up side. re-capitalisation of CO on successful IPO.

Company goes to 100 bagger lucky SH who risked $2000 make a packet.

What do we think guys should we contact board ourselves and set up a deal. In my accounting experience i've done this many times on a smaller scale but same principle.

PS: for those who give me the stupid answer why does the company simply just issue more shares and capital raise. DYOR. We have already met our 15% capital raise limit which includes option, shares, rights etc for the 12 months. to further increase we need vote SH approval at AGM or EGM to pass increase above 15%. Time is our problem.


----------



## rub92me (17 November 2008)

What a dumb proposal. And the proponent of this claims to have accounting experience  Good luck in finding the required 17,500 shareholders to raise the money as proposed.


----------



## ricm (17 November 2008)

rub92me said:


> What a dumb proposal. And the proponent of this claims to have accounting experience  Good luck in finding the required 17,500 shareholders to raise the money as proposed.




yes its a big ask, last time i looked, he had up to 350k pledged, and 3 top 20 SH's interested. it did really only start today...interesting to see how it pans out. Admittedly the ann due tomorrow will have a big effect on how things pan out anyway.

if it is all for nothing, well at the very least sends a powerful message to the management...and I at admire the fact that this guy is trying to inspire SH's to at least take an active role in voicing their opinions and/or actions in an otherwise 1 way street.


----------



## kransky (18 November 2008)

Ann out today...

Vallenar Iron filed a legal writ against Besalco for breach of contract and seeking a financial indemnity in favor of Vallenar Iron in the amount of US $83M for lost production for the period Feb to May 32 2008.

Is it possible that ADY are being screwed by the Chilean companies its working with and in "selling" the LIO asset its just trying to save the asset from receivers?

I have no idea, its just a thought...


----------



## Palladin (19 November 2008)

Have I got my facts straight? ... Is it the administrators of Hawkeswood that are pulling the plug? Is Hawkeswood in receivership because of its connection with Opes Prime. Was a director of Opes Prime also a director of ADY (since resigned).
Do we seriously believe that directors have no connection with each other outside the board room. Some directors behave as if they own the company, rather than manage it on behalf of the shareholders.
If PT has a 25% share of the company, how did he get it? (I paid market price for my shares)
The sooner these cowboys are locked up and out of the system the sooner confidence will return to the market and we can get on with normal risk assessment instead of second guessing the bona fides of the people to whom we entrust our investments ... it is ASICs job to weed them out, so get on with it ASIC.
I exited ADY when I saw the Opes Prime connection ... I don't recall any notice informing the market of the resigning director's connection with Opes Prime, just the usual 'thanks very much and you did a wonderful job'. Sounds like a nod and a wink to me.
Update: Charge Resources couldn't get the downpayment for Rincon ... I wonder if they had the gall to go to ANZ for a loan.


----------



## Palladin (19 November 2008)

I wasn't sure of my facts in previous post, so here's a little research if you are interested:
**** Check out ASX notices 6MAR08 (Anthony Blumberg resigned because he had too much work floating Opes Prime, of which he is major shareholder and director, an didn't have time for ADY); and 28MAR08 (Phil Thomas advised associated entities have margin lending facilities with Opes Prime)
****http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/press_release/0,1014,cid%3D198818,00.html .... ("Deloitte Corporate Reorganisation Group were appointed by a secured creditor, ANZ, as Receivers and Managers of Opes Prime Group Ltd, Opes Prime Stockbroking Ltd, Leveraged Capital Pty Ltd and Hawkswood Investments Pty Ltd.")
****http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23448581-664,00.html ("Mr Blumberg arrived in Australia from London, via South Africa, in 1999, spending about a year with Deloitte as an e-commerce and banking specialist.) Comment: This is an interesting article ... it also exposes the connection between Opes Prime director, Lirim - known as Laurie - Emini, and ANZ.
****http://www.smartcompany.com.au/Free.../20080404-Opes-the-full-story.html?source=RSS ("The directors of Leveraged Capital are Laurie Emini and Julian Smith, two of the founders of Opes. And the directors of Hawkswood are Emini, Smith and the other founder of Opes, Anthony Blumberg. "
****ASX notice 3/4/08 (Merrill Lynch sold out it's own holding in ADY) Comment: Merrill Lynch was one of the creditors of Opes Prime and so would know what was about to hit the fan ... pity they didn't tell everyone, but I took the hint and bailed as well.


----------



## kransky (21 November 2008)

nice digging...

Will be an interesting AGM (Angry Group Meeting) Tuesday in Melb going by the posts on hc.. many people have lost lots of cash in this disaster!


----------



## option158 (6 January 2009)

well today it just shot up , any ideas why? is this a dead lead did i make my first New years boob? 2200+ trades today? why? no news or anything the market has gone crazy!


----------



## sjx (9 January 2009)

option158 said:


> well today it just shot up , any ideas why? is this a dead lead did i make my first New years boob? 2200+ trades today? why? no news or anything the market has gone crazy!




Day traders paradise.

Biggest pump & dump I've ever seen. The company has next to no cash flow, but has cash.. Day traders have been pumping it like no tomorrow in the morning, and then dumping in the afternoon. Unbelievable..


----------



## joeyjoejoe (30 January 2009)

LOL cant belive the last post here was 9th of Jan


this stock seems fishier than pyrmont fish markets if u ask me

the depth is quite overweight on both sides for a share trading @ 3.4c.

2c to 5c then back to 2 now 3.4??

what gives.

can any1 shed some light

I almost bought 100,000 units on the open this morning then i chicken out and proceeded to kick myself for the rest of the day


----------



## rub92me (30 January 2009)

They've had a speeding ticket twice now by the ASX, which received terse "we know nothing" replies from the Company Secretary. The latest we know is that they've completely stopped iron ore production pending legal dispute with Besalco. They sold their most valuable asset for a pittance so have some cash in the bank. Maybe they can become an internet company again and forget about the iron?


----------



## happytown (12 May 2009)

admiralty relased ann this morning indicating legal issues with wyndham settled, sp currently up 20% on large volume

cheers


----------



## happytown (12 May 2009)

massive turnover in ady today, the equivalent of approx 25% of the stock traded, 326M shares, sp up 36% at close

cheers


----------



## Vanquish6 (22 July 2009)

Could be of interest to existing and potential investors in Admiralty Resources. I agree with the comments in BOLD 

Mira, Portugal – 20-07-2009 – SADIF Investment Analytics, today announced the release of a new summary due diligence report covering Admiralty Resources NL (ady). The report utilizes SADIF's powerful StockMarks™ stock rating system and is required reading for any current or potential Admiralty Resources NL investor.

*Report Summary: Admiralty Resources NL is an average quality company with a positive outlook. Admiralty Resources NL has strong business growth and is run by inefficient management.* When compared to its closest peer, Mount Gibson Iron Limited, Admiralty Resources NL shows similar overvaluation and is equally likely to outperform the market.

As a recent member I don't have the Post Count to supply the link, check out sadifanalytics & ady . I am not a promoter or representative of either Sadif or Admiralty Resources.


----------



## tkwaku (25 July 2009)

G'day! Finally ventured my 1st post. Interesting reading on ADY. New 2 trading & learning. Is ADY @ 2.3 c good buy. What do U think? Mngmnt improved?


----------



## pops11 (24 August 2009)

*ADY*

Any other holders of this stock in here ? does anyone know anything re finance issue for Admiralty and will they soon start to produce again? HC posters talking of this today plus SP up 12% or so.

Thanks in advance.


----------



## chrisalex (2 October 2009)

Been watching Admiralty, ADY, for about 12 months. Finally bought 30,000 at .019 cents.I am new to AussieStockForums and have had my suspisions confirmed that the directors are only there to keep a job. They don't seem to do anything remarkable, and whenever they get in a spot of bother they issue more
shares. I may as well sell and buy 250,000 Australian Mines,AUZ, at least when they move it will be at least 50%.
I was pussy footing about with Gindalbie GBG, and Giralia GIR, when they were both around .30 cents. "He who hesitates is lost" or something like that.
Good punting,  Chrisalex.


----------



## chrisalex (12 October 2009)

*ADY. Am I correct*

Am I correct in thinking that ADY Admiralty after 18 months is finally doing something. It rose %10 in the first 30 mins.
   Non-ren. rights offer is responsible I would think. I have been watching for a 
while but only new to investing, 4 weeks. Other companies in this situation seem to rise about %30 then drop off again to a steady bouncing ball. Could I get another view on this, however I am a firm believer in DYOR.
Thanks,  chrisalex


----------



## Sean K (12 October 2009)

*Re: ADY. Am I correct*

I think that Bellingen is a fine place to invest from. I would be a lot happier there myself I think. Good luck with working out ADYyyyyyyyyyyy.


----------



## Busyboy50 (13 January 2010)

It's the new year. Having lost my shirt in the last couple of years with this mob, I wonder what little they will do this year. In theory they should be able to flog a bit of South Amercan iron ore to the Chinese - so I'm interested in what stories we'll hear this year to justify magnificent none performance and high directors fees....


----------



## Albi (8 October 2010)

Is anyone holding this stock? Have been watching this stock for a while. Is there any potential that it will rise again. There is no posting since a long time.


----------



## SM Junkie (8 October 2010)

The chart says it all for this company...flat lined.  But being optimistic, it's still operating, so for the high risk gambler there may be an upside to it.


----------



## Vanquish (12 October 2010)

Busyboy50 said:


> It's the new year. Having lost my shirt in the last couple of years with this mob, I wonder what little they will do this year. In theory they should be able to flog a bit of South Amercan iron ore to the Chinese - so I'm interested in what stories we'll hear this year to justify magnificent none performance and high directors fees....




I know the feeling BusyBoy, also lost a packet on these guys when the whole Opes Prime thiing was going on and they had to off-load the only real valuable asset they had. At least P Thomas  is now out of the frame - anyone know what he's up to now?


----------



## roland (13 October 2010)

Unusually large volume spike today. Maybe a rub off of the euphoria of the Chilean rescue in that part of the world???


----------



## Anmar (25 May 2011)

roland said:


> Unusually large volume spike today. Maybe a rub off of the euphoria of the Chilean rescue in that part of the world???




ADY has certainly put on some upward trend in the last few days.

View attachment Minerals Daily.xls


----------



## greggles (7 May 2018)

After crashing spectacularly in 2008, Admiralty Resources largely fell off the radar of traders and continued its slide towards oblivion. However, very recently it has been showing some signs of life.

For the last 18 months the company has been working its way through the approvals process on the Mariposa iron ore project in Chile. On 11 April ADY announced that it has now completed the full approvals process, putting the company in a position to commence mining works on the site.

Any ADY followers from a decade ago think there is any hope of a resurrection here?


----------



## barney (6 July 2018)

LOL …. funny should ask that question @greggles  whether there are any ex-ADY-ers still around as I mentioned in the Risers thread that I used to own a few …. Lost a bit and won a bit trading them

Anyway, they came up on the radar again today so I thought I should check …. 

Now I don't want to appear cynical or god forbid, racist, … but Ive lost quite a few dollars on stocks which are infiltrated with foreign directors

ADY have very little cash left in the coffers but have managed a 38% SP rise today  … 

We all know Specs often follow no rules so there may be something in the pipeline that we aren't aware of …… however, as they say on Shark Tank … "I'm out"


----------



## greggles (17 March 2021)

ADY coming up on my radar again. Volume and share price creeping up slowly after months of trading sideways. Something afoot?


----------



## debtfree (1 April 2021)

I've picked ADY for the April Monthly Comp. It's certainly moving in the right direction of late as @greggles  has pointed out above, up over 90% this year and over 50% last month.

A reasonable target if it continues on it's way is it's previous high of 0.033 (43%) or my wish target, top of the bar back in Sept 20 of 0.075 (226%)  I'll settle for anything in between.


----------

