# ALL ORDS went nowhere for 7 YEARS!



## Bill M (30 December 2011)

Every year I work the percentage gain or loss for the year on the final day of trading.

This year the ALL ORDS closed down 15%.

We are down a whopping 40% since our highs in October 2007  some 4 years ago.

Worst of all, the ALL ORDS hit 4111 back in Jan 2005, so for 7 years we have gone no where.

Just out of curiosity does anyone want to take a punt on where the ALL ORDS will finish on the last day of trading in 2012?

Happy New Year Everyone and good luck with your investments, cheers.


----------



## wayneL (30 December 2011)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*



Bill M said:


> Every year I work the percentage gain or loss for the year on the final day of trading.
> 
> This year the ALL ORDS closed down 15%.
> 
> ...




$500 for anyone who bought the "ALL ORDS" in Jan 2005.


----------



## Julia (30 December 2011)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*



wayneL said:


> $500 for anyone who bought the "ALL ORDS" in Jan 2005.



What actually do you mean when you say bought the All Ords?


----------



## wayneL (30 December 2011)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*

It's an index unrepresented by future contracts or ETFs as far as I;m aware... you can't "buy" it.


----------



## banco (30 December 2011)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*

buy and hold baby, buy and hold


----------



## poverty (30 December 2011)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*

I wonder how much dividends ALLORDS has paid out since Jan 2005.


----------



## skyQuake (30 December 2011)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*



poverty said:


> I wonder how much dividends ALLORDS has paid out since Jan 2005.




Jan2005 -> Now

XJO 
4063 -> 4056 ~Flat

XJO Accumulation Index
23536 -> 30879 ~31%


----------



## Bill M (30 December 2011)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*



poverty said:


> I wonder how much *dividends* ALLORDS has paid out since Jan 2005.




Roughly about 5% gross P/A for the ASX 300 for capital invested. For the All Ords it would be close to that too.


----------



## dutchie (30 December 2011)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*



Bill M said:


> Just out of curiosity does anyone want to take a punt on where the ALL ORDS will finish on the last day of trading in 2012?




5700 (don't ask) (emphasis on *punt*)


----------



## Bill M (30 December 2011)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*



dutchie said:


> 5700 (don't ask) (emphasis on *punt*)




OK I'm going to take a punt too, 4919:


----------



## Julia (30 December 2011)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*



wayneL said:


> It's an index unrepresented by future contracts or ETFs as far as I;m aware... you can't "buy" it.



Hence my question.




banco said:


> buy and hold baby, buy and hold



Why?


----------



## Tyler Durden (30 December 2011)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*

So much for the diversification strategy...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (30 December 2011)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*

Just be patient and wait for a Wave 3.

It could take years or it could be in April/May 2012.

Patience is required.

gg


----------



## Dougs Antiques (30 December 2011)

My punt 
All Ords will be up by 8% at 4440


----------



## LifeChoices (30 December 2011)

Wow, that sounds about right.

My share portfolio, since I started investing 7/8 years ago reflects it. Started off with some good blue chips, WOW, BHP, CSL - all crap now, did lots of trading/investing/punting since then and the ASX has beaten me up. 

If we are talking about punting on 2012 - property has got to be the next hit - hey it's getting hit now. I can't see 2012 ASX being that flash - but hey, you never can tell.

Happy New Year


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (30 December 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> My punt
> All Ords will be up by 8% at 4440





As Cato the Younger said to Drusus.

Te audire no possum. Musa sapientum fixa est in aure.

gg


----------



## Dougs Antiques (31 December 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> As Cato the Younger said to Drusus.
> 
> Te audire no possum. Musa sapientum fixa est in aure.
> 
> gg




HAPPY NEW YEAR GG
Estne volumen in toga, an solum tibi libet me videre


----------



## LifeChoices (31 December 2011)

Tu ai furat turbanul canarului meu?


----------



## Aussiejeff (31 December 2011)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just be patient and wait for a Wave 3.
> 
> It could take years or it could be in April/May 2012.
> 
> ...




What if the sea level has fallen permanently?

What if the surf has gone out for good?

What price patience, then?



On a side note, at the end of 2012, a year when depressed Eurozone countries have to find refinancing for around 1 TRILLION EUROS worth of sovereign debt - yep, you read that correctly - I predict this thread will be changed to *"ALL ORDS went no where for 8 YEARS!!"*

Crappy New Year?


----------



## dutchie (31 December 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> Tu ai furat turbanul canarului meu?






Dougs Antiques said:


> HAPPY NEW YEAR GG
> Estne volumen in toga, an solum tibi libet me videre






Garpal Gumnut said:


> As Cato the Younger said to Drusus.
> 
> Te audire no possum. Musa sapientum fixa est in aure.
> 
> gg




Gees you blokes are good at French.


----------



## tomtom33 (31 December 2011)

Bill M said:


> Every year I work the percentage gain or loss for the year on the final day of trading.
> 
> This year the ALL ORDS closed down 15%.
> 
> ...




That's about the same time that Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party got elected.


----------



## So_Cynical (31 December 2011)

tomtom33 said:


> That's about the same time that Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party got elected.




Tom there is an absolute plethora of Labor bashing threads here at ASF, i know its hard for most of the oh so right wingers that post here to control their desire to bash and beat down the Labor Govt at every opportunity....so please, since its your first post, could you try and restrain your self to bashing Labor in the 10 or so active Labor bashing threads we already have.

Thanks and HNY.


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 December 2011)

It's a secular bear market - just like the one the USA has been in for the past 12 years.

Starts with high valuation (P/E) and ends with low valuation. There's been plenty of them throughout history with, in the case of the US, a typical duration well over a decade.


----------



## ChrisJH (31 December 2011)

Dec 31 2012... 3200 tops. if not below 3000.

I called it. The history books can thank me later.


----------



## Aussiejeff (1 January 2012)

Bill M said:


> Worst of all, the ALL ORDS hit 4111 back in Jan 2005, so for 7 years we have gone no where.




I wonder why INFLATION never seems to be mentioned when it comes to comparing YOY "values" of shares/indexes/companys?

Wouldn't it be reasonable to say that a share index "value" of 4111 in Jan 2012 would actually be "worth" significantly less than the same 4111 in Jan 2005 - adjusted for 6 year's worth of inflation?

After all, isn't the ALL ORDS share index "value" simply a way of gauging the average "value" (and hence performance) of the selected basket of companies included in that index?

Or doesn't inflation matter?


----------



## Bill M (1 January 2012)

Aussiejeff said:


> Or doesn't inflation matter?




Yes it matters. I don't have the exact figures but lets assume inflation to be at 3% P/A over the period. At that rate that 5% gross dividend gets wiped out totally as well. So not only did the ALL ORDS go nowhere for 7 years you didn't get paid for holding it either. Yet the Super Funds are all still encouraging people to put a higher allocation into shares.


----------



## Ves (1 January 2012)

Bill M said:


> Yes it matters. I don't have the exact figures but lets assume inflation to be at 3% P/A over the period. At that rate that 5% gross dividend gets wiped out totally as well. So not only did the ALL ORDS go nowhere for 7 years you didn't get paid for holding it either. Yet the Super Funds are all still encouraging people to put a higher allocation into shares.



Dividend payments have generally grown in excess of inflation during this period, so I am wondering how you have come to this conclusion?

For instance WOW dividend in 2005 $0.59 per share vs $1.22 in 2011.

Looking at Yahoo charts data: if you purchased in at the peak price in 2005 of $17.35 in November you would have a dividend yield of 3.4% on cost.

In 2011 this is now 7.03% per annum on your original investment. If you re-invested the dividends through their DRP this would be potentially much higher. Grossed up for franking credits this is 10.01%.

Without adjusting for inflation this is 17.7% growth per annum. 

Bear in mind that this is not a future prediction just an analysis of the past.

There are examples of the opposite (or no growth) aplenty but the emphasis is on holding quality companies and buying at the right price.

The next 12-18 months is looking perfect for such an approach.

Disclosure: I have never held and do not hold WOW shares.


----------



## Julia (1 January 2012)

Ves said:


> The next 12-18 months is looking perfect for such an approach.



 I'll be interested to look at this perfect period at its conclusion.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 January 2012)

Aussiejeff said:


> I wonder why INFLATION never seems to be mentioned when it comes to comparing YOY "values" of shares/indexes/companys?



It's like the argument that says "house prices never fall" or something like that - we've all heard it from the real estate industry many times.

Whilst it may technically be true that house prices rarely decline by large amounts, they do have a habit of going sideways for long periods which, after inflation, represents an outright crash in real values.

If your investment isn't going up at least as quickly as inflation then it is in practice going down in terms of real value even if nominal values are constant or slowly rising.

Same applies to the share market. I'm no guru, but it has long been my understanding that we should expect a P/E for the market as a whole of around 7 at the end of the secular bear. That's not a typo - 7 and there's plenty of examples historically (mostly from the US) on the net which back it up.


----------



## Wysiwyg (1 January 2012)

Smurf1976 said:


> Same applies to the share market. I'm no guru, but it has long been my understanding that we should expect a P/E for the market as a whole of around 7 at the end of the secular bear. That's not a typo - 7 and there's plenty of examples historically (mostly from the US) on the net which back it up.



Certainly, in any asset purchase, emphasis needs to be on *timing* and getting the timing right makes a huge difference as time goes by. Like the share trading systems that work well in a bull market . But gee, the financial system is a lot of *smoke and mirror stuff and there are no guarantees of an "investment" being fruitful in the long run. 

* Smoke and mirror stuff like property is a safe investment and share investment for dividend returns are sound.


----------



## Bill M (1 January 2012)

Ves said:


> Dividend payments have generally grown in excess of inflation during this period, so I am wondering how you have come to this conclusion?



Oh really? This thread is about the ALL ORDS, not individual stocks. Sure, I can pull double digit dividends out some companies too but again we are talking about the ALL ORDS. So the conclusion comes from the Vanguard Index Australian Shares Fund. "The fund seeks to track the return (income and capital appreciation) of the S&P/ASX 300 Index before fund fees and expenses." ( This is not far off the ALL ORDS.)

Look at the attachment, the best case scenario is the 10 year period, it returned only 4.3% P/A distribution. Put in a bit of franking credits and that will bring it up to about 5% gross. So there ya go, not really what I would call a good investment, cheers.

Link here:http://www.vanguard.com.au/vnl/factsheet/PER/viasf.pdf


----------



## Ves (2 January 2012)

Bill M said:


> Yet the Super Funds are all still encouraging people to put a higher allocation into shares.



 I misinterpreted this as you wanting further discussion as to some of the reasons why they may be doing this or in fact why some people might still be using the stock market as part of their wealth generation plan.

My apologies for getting off-topic.

The All Ords index is currently yielding 5.48% according to Commsec. 

This is most likely a fair bit higher than the relative time period of seven years ago. Can someone confirm this?

edit: a pure buy and hold of the exact all ords seven years ago would obviously differ from a tracking and re-weighting such as that of an index fund.

I admit; that we are possibily not clear enough on what we are trying to resolve here.


----------



## McLovin (2 January 2012)

Excluding dividends, the market hasn't moved forward by much in real terms for ~40 years.


----------



## wayneL (2 January 2012)

McLovin said:


> Excluding dividends, the market hasn't moved forward by much in real terms for ~40 years.




I seem to recall reading in one of those Buffet type books that historically, the only way companies generally grow above inflation is by the useful retention of earnings, hence the man's preference for companies that do so.

That's IIRC


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2012)

Ves said:


> I admit; that we are possibily not clear enough on what we are trying to resolve here.




Hi Ves, not really trying to resolve anything here. I am just highlighting the fact that the ALL ORDS went nowhere for 7 years and that if you take inflation into account then your dividends were eaten up too. 

About the Super Funds, they are run similarly to a Mutual Fund. They have Managers who get paid lots of money to try and improve your return. Yet the majority can not even beat the index, reference here:
---
"The truth is that a majority of mutual funds fail to outperform the S&P 500. The exact stats vary depending on the year, but on average,* anywhere from 50%-80% of funds get beat by the market"*
---

So with that on board and knowing the majority can't even beat the index, why are these Super Fund Managers suggesting that a higher allocation into shares is better? I would hate to have been with the unlucky 80% of Fund Managers that get it wrong because then my returns would be negative over the last 7 years.

Note: Although the link above quotes the S&P 500 the situation here with the ALL ORDS wouldn't be much different.


----------



## young-gun (2 January 2012)

Bill M said:


> Every year I work the percentage gain or loss for the year on the final day of trading.
> 
> This year the ALL ORDS closed down 15%.
> 
> ...




all ords to 3000, chinas collapse is imminent, there wont be many positives after june/july next year. european leaders are already calling for a very tough year ahead, and if theyre calling it tough, it actually means its going to be horrific.


----------



## young-gun (2 January 2012)

tomtom33 said:


> That's about the same time that Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party got elected.


----------



## DB008 (2 January 2012)

young-gun said:


> all ords to 3000, chinas collapse is imminent, there wont be many positives after june/july next year. european leaders are already calling for a very tough year ahead, and if theyre calling it tough, it actually means its going to be horrific.




+1
China slow down will have an effect on us here in Oz.

l'm going for 3400.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (2 January 2012)

Bear market bearing down on us all. It will continue into the next year and the next 2 decades.

Once baby boomers are done, if the world still exists by then - then perhaps we can have another bull market.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 January 2012)

Based on historical averages, my understanding is that the bottom for the US markets should be sometime around 2017 give or take a bit either way. That's 17 or so years from top to bottom, measured in terms of P/E not absolute prices.

As I said, I'm no guru - I'm just repeating what I've been reading for quite a few years now.


----------



## Aussiejeff (3 January 2012)

Plus, throw this into the crystal ball and tell me the future....



> *Japan's population decreasing at fastest postwar rate*
> 
> 
> TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's population decreased in 2011 at the fastest pace in the postwar era with the decline, calculated by deducting the number of deaths from that of births, coming to an estimated 204,000, health ministry estimates showed Saturday.
> ...




From the same article...



> _*An official of the ministry predicted that Japan's population will keep decreasing at a faster pace as the number of deaths will continue to rise given the rapid aging of society, while the size of the younger generation will shrink.*_
> 
> 
> (Mainichi Japan) January 1, 2012



http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20120101p2g00m0dm030000c.html

Pray tell.... how will Japan's economy ever grow "healthily" again with a rapidly declining & aging population?

They have NEVER allowed mass immigration or integration of other cultures into Japan for 1,000's of years. Would they bite that bullet for a slim chance to save total economic collapse in the not-so-far-off future? 

"Kinga Shinnen"


----------



## young-gun (3 January 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Bear market bearing down on us all. It will continue into the next year and the next 2 decades.
> 
> Once baby boomers are done, if the world still exists by then - then perhaps we can have another bull market.




+1, as i just wrote in another post, is it going to be a manipulated slow burn of economies for the next 15 years, or will it at some point collapse in a heap over night, seeing us to the bottom in a few months(and staying there for a looonnnggg time).


----------



## Aussiejeff (3 January 2012)

young-gun said:


> +1, as i just wrote in another post, is it going to be a manipulated slow burn of economies for the next 15 years, or will it at some point collapse in a heap over night, seeing us to the bottom in a few months(and staying there for a looonnnggg time).




My guess - a manipulated slow incineration.

Why?

Pollies & the "filthy rich" elite will do absolutely anything & everything to hang on to their power, wealth & standards of excessive living they have become addicted to. 

Create money out of thin air, sell the farm, granny & the kids if that's what it takes to keep the Krug flowing....

LOL.

Enjoy the ride....


----------



## young-gun (3 January 2012)

Aussiejeff said:


> My guess - a manipulated slow incineration.
> 
> Why?
> 
> ...




agreed, but i dont believe this is the best option. as you posted earlier on japan, their market has finished at its lowest level since 1982. so in 30 years japans market has basically gone nowhere? i think this is a hint of whats to come for everyone else, aus included. japan did however experience e 'crash' in the 90's, i still think there will be some form of crash throughout before the slowburn really takes hold.

i think that to let an economy deflate, and enter into a depression(obviously not fun and not pretty for anyone) would, in the long run, be a much healthier and short lived option. but then again never having experienced a full blown depression, its hard to speculate which is better. given the magnitude of whats happening arond the globe, i wouldnt be surprised if things were drawn out over the next 30-40 years before genuine growth kicked back in, whereas if we were to sit out a depression it may only take 15-20. pure guesswork and speculation on my part though. but the 30s depression started to end after a decade approx. given that we are in a worse situation now, i can only assume it would take longer to fix.


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2012)

So I take it all you blokes are in cash are you? If you haven't any cash then what about your super, did you put it into cash? And if you didn't, why not? I mean with such long term negative views that would be the way to go wouldn't it? Just wondering...


----------



## young-gun (3 January 2012)

Bill M said:


> So I take it all you blokes are in cash are you? If you haven't any cash then what about your super, did you put it into cash? And if you didn't, why not? I mean with such long term negative views that would be the way to go wouldn't it? Just wondering...




im in cash, and my super is laughable given my age, so what it does over the next year doesnt concern me, once i have a clearer picture of exactly how things are going to play out i will act. its ok for people like yourself to stay in the market given you probably bought bhp for 6$, and your dividends are still quite healthy given what you paid for them.

buy and hold no longer works, and if things get bad enough, cash isnt going to make you any money either. its upto us to assess economic situations day to day and decide whats best. every situation is different, and it cannot be argued that being in cash for 2011 was not better than being in a managed fund in a market that fell 14%


----------



## Julia (3 January 2012)

young-gun said:


> buy and hold no longer works, and if things get bad enough, cash isnt going to make you any money either. its upto us to assess economic situations day to day and decide whats best. every situation is different, and it cannot be argued that being in cash for 2011 was not better than being in a managed fund in a market that fell 14%




+1.


----------



## skc (3 January 2012)

young-gun said:


> buy and hold no longer works




Buy and hold has rarely worked for the average Joe imo... and over the long term Buy and Hold probably means beating inflation on average.

I first saw this chart some time ago and it still amazes me. 

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110102-metrics-graphic.html




The average person who started investing in the 1960s (in US) did not beat inflation today. And that's over 50 years...


----------



## pixel (3 January 2012)

young-gun said:


> buy and hold no longer works, and if things get bad enough, cash isnt going to make you any money either. its upto us to assess economic situations day to day and decide whats best. every situation is different, and it cannot be argued that being in cash for 2011 was not better than being in a managed fund in a market that fell 14%



 buy and hold has never worked.
If it was that easy, everybody would just buy into IPOs (remember Telstra or QANTAS?) and rake in the dough. 
We got to be smarter than that: 
*Take profit when it stops increasing. Never follow the herd, rather do the opposite.* 

And don't anybody come with their favourite super fund manager either: They live off those additional fees and charges that they syphon off regardless whether they win, lose, or draw.


----------



## Aussiejeff (3 January 2012)

Bill M said:


> So I take it all you blokes are in cash are you? If you haven't any cash then what about your super, did you put it into cash? And if you didn't, why not? I mean with such long term negative views that would be the way to go wouldn't it? Just wondering...




Ya, cash feels good atm.

Sleeping much better.


----------



## So_Cynical (3 January 2012)

I've been near fully invested since mid 2007...my PA return (gross dividends and distributions) on (original) capital is close to 10% ~ PA return (gross dividends and distributions) on recycled capital close to 7%

Buy and hold after establishing free carry and exiting 70 > 80% of original investment capital is working fine for me........buy and hold doesn't work when there is no regard for the price your paying (timing) and no overall trade and capital management plan.


----------



## Wysiwyg (3 January 2012)

pixel said:


> buy and hold has never worked.
> If it was that easy, everybody would just buy into IPOs (remember Telstra or QANTAS?) and rake in the dough.



Remember CBA IPO? And what about long term BHP or ANN or RHC?


----------



## young-gun (3 January 2012)

pixel said:


> buy and hold has never worked.
> If it was that easy, everybody would just buy into IPOs (remember Telstra or QANTAS?) and rake in the dough.
> We got to be smarter than that:
> *Take profit when it stops increasing. Never follow the herd, rather do the opposite.*
> ...




i guess it depends on your definition of buy and hold. buy and hold to me regards a time frame of 2-3 or even 4 years. i guess a better term for it would be 'investing' as opposed to day trading. i would never buy a stock with the intent of holding it for over 5 years. although if 5 years passed and a bull market isnt showing signs of slowing then why not hold a bit longer?

guys that i work with bought early-mid 90's, and had they of not been greedy(as admitted by themselves) and gotten out on a stop loss or something, then they would currently have millions. they were absolutely raking it in, one making 150k plus p/a.(of course he was leveraged and had investment debts, but these were far outweighed by dividends and price increases)

buy and hold works in certain periods of time - but it would appear not for extended periods of time(decades), as does just about any trading approach, its upto us once again to try pick the peaks and troughs.

cynical put it well. and is a perfect example of how buy and hold can work at times.

completely agree with you though, we got to be smarter than that.


----------



## Chasero (3 January 2012)

All ORDS definitely underperformed internationally.

Everyone should just buy U.S. shares lol... the DOW ended the year not too shabby.

Or buy maccas shares


----------



## young-gun (3 January 2012)

Chasero said:


> All ORDS definitely underperformed internationally.
> 
> Everyone should just buy U.S. shares lol... the DOW ended the year not too shabby.
> 
> Or buy maccas shares




is it that xjo underperformed internationally or that everyone else out-performed? perhaps aussies are smarter than the rest, as might be evident through our recent spike in savings? maybe we are more aware of economic impacts than others? obviously there is nothing to substantiate such a claim.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQkPZIbsl6Q

harry dents research in my opinion is the only research that seems to be close to explaining what happens to markets ahead of time. everyone has great explanations after events have unraveled, dent has accurately predicted major economic movements(the magnitude of these has not always been so accurate). i dont know that s&p to drop by 30-50% is in 2012 is his best prediction, but he explains how demographics are driving our economy, and indeed markets will follow this trend, how far they go is anyones guess.


----------



## Wysiwyg (3 January 2012)

Risk is the word and this quote sums up what has been posted before.


> Long-term investors
> 
> If you’re investing for the long term, say more than 7 years, you want your capital to grow in value. *Risks you face include*:
> 
> ...


----------



## banco (3 January 2012)

Even some really basic MA systems seem to outperform buy and hold.


----------



## pixel (3 January 2012)

Wysiwyg said:


> Remember CBA IPO? And what about long term BHP or ANN or RHC?



 Of course I remember CBA. But between October 2007 and May 2009 I did not hold any. Nor do I hold any CBA at the moment.




Conceded that it was easier for me to get rid of my small retail holdings; something a major Fund Manager couldn't do. That's my point: Don't do what everybody else is (forced to be) doing.
Similar to Kahuna1, who had fundamental reasons, I saw the signs on the ASX200 chart and cashed out in October 2007; went on 2 months holiday instead and after returning, I started a new trading regime (read Guppy: _Bear Trading_) until the turn in March 2009.


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2012)

young-gun said:


> and it cannot be argued that being in cash for 2011 was not better than being in a managed fund in a market that fell 14%



Isn't that the truth! Sounds like you are giving your finances a lot of thought, good luck mate. 



pixel said:


> And don't anybody come with their favourite super fund manager either:



I don't think there are too many of those anymore.



So_Cynical said:


> I've been near fully invested since mid 2007...my PA return (gross dividends and distributions) on (original) capital is close to 10% ~ PA return (gross dividends and distributions) on recycled capital close to 7%



What about your Super Fund? You would have to be going backwards with that one particularly with that dog GFF in it....:

Congrats on the other investments.


----------



## Julia (3 January 2012)

banco said:


> buy and hold baby, buy and hold






Julia said:


> Why?






banco said:


> Even some really basic MA systems seem to outperform buy and hold.



Had a change of heart over a couple of days, huh, banco?




young-gun said:


> i guess it depends on your definition of buy and hold. buy and hold to me regards a time frame of 2-3 or even 4 years. i guess a better term for it would be 'investing' as opposed to day trading.



I don't especially see why buy and hold should relate to a period of 2, 3 or 4 years, or why the term 'investing' makes any particular difference.  Not at all having a go at you here, young-gun, just think the terminology is ill defined and therefore the discussion doesn't make as much sense as it could.



> Investment has different meanings in finance and economics. Finance investment is putting money into something with the expectation of gain, that upon thorough analysis, has a high degree of security for the principal amount, as well as security of return, within an expected period of time.



(With thanks to Wikipaedia)

I suppose - using that definition - you can equally apply the term 'investing' to day trading.

I'd say the common definition of buy and hold amongst the people who mostly do this, is the set and forget approach.  They they are upset when they lose money.

Buying into a nicely established uptrend and getting out when it turns down may not ensure the maximum profit from the top and bottom of the market but will give you profits and preservation of capital.



> i would never buy a stock with the intent of holding it for over 5 years. although if 5 years passed and a bull market isnt showing signs of slowing then why not hold a bit longer?



You are here following my suggestion above.


----------



## pixel (3 January 2012)

Julia said:


> I'd say the common definition of buy and hold amongst the people who mostly do this, is the set and forget approach.  The[n] they are upset when they lose money.



 Well put, Julia;

Most often, the distinction is made between


 "investing" - implying virtue, wisdom, supporting a worthy cause - vs
 "trading" - taken to be the immoral chase of the quick buck, which is only eclipsed by
 "shorting" - that's wrecking all the good intentions of investors
 If anyone's ultimate goal does not include asset security and, as far as possible, asset augmentation, I'd like to hear (a) what they intend to achieve instead and (b) how much money they intend to give away. 

I reckon the wiki qualification *"within an expected period of time"* is hitting the mark squarely. Sometimes, I "invest" for only a few minutes, but if a stock remains in a Bull Trend, I keep "invested" in the trend till the bend at the end. 
"Forgetting" is laziness, not a virtue. Failing to take corrective action and allowing one's assets to decline unnecessarily is not wise, it's simply stupid.


----------



## Wysiwyg (4 January 2012)

pixel said:


> Sometimes, I "invest" for only a few minutes, but if a stock remains in a Bull Trend, I keep "invested" in the trend till the bend at the end.
> "Forgetting" is laziness, not a virtue. *Failing to take corrective action and allowing one's** assets to decline unnecessarily is not wise, it's simply stupid.*



Guilty your Honor. 



The following forum member thanks Pixel for this post -

Wysiwyg.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (4 January 2012)

Bill M said:


> So I take it all you blokes are in cash are you? If you haven't any cash then what about your super, did you put it into cash? And if you didn't, why not? I mean with such long term negative views that would be the way to go wouldn't it? Just wondering...




Only if you're a long-term investor.



skc said:


> The average person who started investing in the 1960s (in US) did not beat inflation today. And that's over 50 years...




That's a good chart, thanks.


----------



## young-gun (4 January 2012)

Julia said:


> I don't especially see why buy and hold should relate to a period of 2, 3 or 4 years, or why the term 'investing' makes any particular difference.  Not at all having a go at you here, young-gun, just think the terminology is ill defined and therefore the discussion doesn't make as much sense as it could.




no problem, was just how i view buy and hold. i guess the issue is everyone has their own definition.




> I'd say the common definition of buy and hold amongst the people who mostly do this, is the set and forget approach.  They they are upset when they lose money.




if buy and hold is largely viewed as buy and forget then i dont believe this to be a form of investing, i see it as a form of stupidity. to go into anything at all in life without having a strong understanding of what your doing, and a plan in place, is just being wreckless, especially in regards to 'investing'(and i use the term loosely) your hard earned $$$.

pixel, for some it can be put down to stupidity, but others simply human nature. alot of people trade a greed based system. that is, they will happily hold a stock that has fallen 25% as they believe(or wish) that it will return to where it was and they're profits will return and they can then sell and look like a trading extraordinaire. no doubt these are the same people are currently holding telstra with the belief that it will return to $9 any day now.


----------



## banco (4 January 2012)

Julia said:


> Had a change of heart over a couple of days, huh, banco?
> 
> .




No I was being sarcastic.  "Stocks for the long term, take the long view etc." is the kind of lazy drivel you see in the financial pages every time the market takes a dip.


----------



## robusta (5 January 2012)

banco said:


> No I was being sarcastic.  "Stocks for the long term, take the long view etc." is the kind of lazy drivel you see in the financial pages every time the market takes a dip.




Any strangely some seem to profit from this strategy - take a look at the performance of ARG over the last 20 years, they have returned 9.4% pa compared to the all ord acc index 8.9% pa - this includes the last 7 years!


----------



## Bill M (6 January 2012)

robusta said:


> Any strangely some seem to profit from this strategy - take a look at the performance of ARG over the last 20 years, they have returned 9.4% pa compared to the all ord acc index 8.9% pa - this includes the last 7 years!




Thanks for that, this is what long term investing is all about. From the website:

_"Argo has paid a dividend every year since it was formed in 1946."_

At it's current price of $5.16 your gross dividend is 7.2%, not bad for doing nothing.


----------



## Klogg (6 January 2012)

Doesn't "Buy and Hold" comprise of buying a company (with a longer term view), watching it vigilantly once you own it and selling once it's getting off-track or not meeting your investment criteria...?

From what I'm understanding, people have the impression it's "Buy and Forget"... Very disturbing, and an easy way to lose money!


----------



## DocK (6 January 2012)

Klogg said:


> Doesn't "Buy and Hold" comprise of buying a company (with a longer term view), watching it vigilantly once you own it and selling once it's getting off-track or not meeting your investment criteria...?
> 
> From what I'm understanding, people have the impression it's "Buy and Forget"... Very disturbing, and an easy way to lose money!




"Buy and Hold" has become such a generic term it often means different things to different people - from "Buy and Forget" to "Actively Invest".  Just as people's definitions of timeframes vary considerably - a daytrader who trades off a 5 min chart would no doubt consider my definition of medium-term to be quite longterm.


----------



## pixel (6 January 2012)

Klogg said:


> Doesn't "Buy and Hold" comprise of buying a company (with a longer term view), watching it vigilantly once you own it and selling once it's getting off-track or not meeting your investment criteria...?
> 
> From what I'm understanding, people have the impression it's "Buy and Forget"... Very disturbing, and an easy way to lose money!



 There are some stocks being "discussed" in various circles, for whom "Hold" has the meaning "Stick with them for better or worse". For example, when CVN came back down from 80c, I suggested it's time to take profit. Only to be flamed as a downramping bluddy daytrader, who had no concern for the wellbeing of those early entrants who saw value and bought big at 6c. SLA is another example, and the list could go on...

Open-eyed people - whether they call themselves investors or traders or anything in between - will consider that kind of "Hold" as dumb as the notion of averaging down.

Holding through an uptrend over an individually-selected reasonable time frame is a completely different animal. Just be sure you don't fall in love with a stock and miss the "bend at the end of the trend." Or, worse, view a falling trend through those inversion goggles that show support where none exists.


----------



## Macros (7 January 2012)

I don't believe in buy and hold, as it is usually a symptom of either a lack of investment strategy or just pure lack of understanding. My philosophy is to buy under-priced companies with growing value in favourable macro conditions. I look to achieve very high rates of return and detest losses.

As such, it is important to know where the overall market is headed as that will usually have a substantial influence on individual stock selections and the types of companies that will do well in a particular environment.

I now have two indicators for the overall market. Firstly, one which determines fair value based on forward earnings estimates - but has the flaw of those estimates changing on a frequent basis. Secondly, one which determines fair value based on economic indicators and completely excludes past or future company earnings.

Given the fact that the market has gone nowhere for seven years, you may find this indicator interesting (as least I did when I charted it for the first time the other day):




At least based on this indicator, fair value dropped far below market price in early 2007 and has only now exceeded it - which is interesting. I find it interesting that it suggested that the market got ahead of itself in the rebound of 2009 and also that we have the potential to enter in to a bull market (yeah I know about the global problems) - at least on nominal terms. I haven't been able to track this prior to 2003, however it has been very effective during the time period. It is an indicator that I will be watching closely to help inform my investment timing and allocation decisions.


----------



## qldfrog (7 January 2012)

Interesting, where did you get your historic fair value from?


----------



## Macros (7 January 2012)

qldfrog said:


> Interesting, where did you get your historic fair value from?




It is a non-equally weighted modified index of important US based economic indicators that include: capacity utilisation, business inventories, PMI manufacturing index, new orders, M2 money supply, treasury rate, corporate bond yields and financial stress index.

I created it to provide an alternative to using consensus EPS forecasts, which are constantly changing and therefore useful over the shorter term. They are likely more of a lagging indicator. Whereas the economic indicator does not change and is not subject to human qualification or expectation. Instead of using past EPS and forecast EPS, it uses economic indicators to determine fair value.


----------



## mildew (7 January 2012)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*



wayneL said:


> $500 for anyone who bought the "ALL ORDS" in Jan 2005.




and paid $500


----------



## explod (7 January 2012)

> Macros
> 
> I don't believe in buy and hold, as it is usually a symptom of either a lack of investment strategy or just pure lack of understanding. My philosophy is to buy under-priced companies with growing value in favourable macro conditions. I look to achieve very high rates of return and detest losses.
> 
> As such, it is important to know where the overall market is headed as that will usually have a substantial influence on individual stock selections and the types of companies that will do well in a particular environment.




I do not think you can approach things better than this.

And it really is just *trend following*, find the best stocks in the best sectors that have the best sentiment and fundamentals.   And as the techo's know it is the *sentiment* that drives t/a and in effect that state is reached because all of the boxes in the first para have been checked and ticked by the market.

But I can assure you newer ones to the market that to act cool and know takes many years at it.   And as one who has gone belly up I wished I had had the wisdom in earlier times.   And perhaps the going broke is part of the preparation to real success.

A good post there Macros.


----------



## mildew (7 January 2012)

Bill M said:


> Just out of curiosity does anyone want to take a punt on where the ALL ORDS will finish on the last day of trading in 2012?




I feel tired and defeated after 5 years of watching my super (since I retired) go down the gurgler. So I'll say 4,100.


----------



## Macros (7 January 2012)

explod said:


> I do not think you can approach things better than this.
> 
> And it really is just *trend following*, find the best stocks in the best sectors that have the best sentiment and fundamentals.   And as the techo's know it is the *sentiment* that drives t/a and in effect that state is reached because all of the boxes in the first para have been checked and ticked by the market.
> 
> ...




Thank you Explod.

I think the worst type of mentality is to 'go down with the ship', because even if you think you have it right, sometimes the market may know more and one must frequently question themselves and minimise risk. 

Sorry to hear that you had such a bad experience. However I'm sure it is a valuable learning tool and, in my view, I think that the route to success can be found by making a few very good decisions at the right times. Some people go through their life and never learn. I think the irony is that most people are so focused on making gains, when the key is to focus on the process. Many entrepreneurs that are very successful have gone bust once or more, so a failure is not the end of the world - and hopefully you can become richer for the experience.


----------



## Macros (7 January 2012)

mildew said:


> I feel tired and defeated after 5 years of watching my super (since I retired) go down the gurgler. So I'll say 4,100.




Sorry to hear that Mildew.

I think in your case, if you are not scared away, you may want to focus on quality stable companies that will be around for a long time and pay strong and growing dividends. If there ever was a time where these companies can be found, now is it.


----------



## mildew (7 January 2012)

Why when our economy has been so strong albeit on the back of the miners only?


----------



## Macros (7 January 2012)

mildew said:


> Why when our economy has been so strong albeit on the back of the miners only?




The economy, or the perception of it, does not equal the market. The market is impacted by the economic variables, but under my understanding of fair value, there are good times to invest and bad times.

We live in a globalised and interlinked world. Australian company earnings per share are virtually the same as the US Dow companies, just with a greater rate of change.


----------



## pixel (7 January 2012)

Macros said:


> It is a non-equally weighted modified index of important US based economic indicators that include: capacity utilisation, business inventories, PMI manufacturing index, new orders, M2 money supply, treasury rate, corporate bond yields and financial stress index.
> 
> I created it to provide an alternative to using consensus EPS forecasts, which are constantly changing and therefore useful over the shorter term. They are likely more of a lagging indicator. Whereas the economic indicator does not change and is not subject to human qualification or expectation. Instead of using past EPS and forecast EPS, it uses economic indicators to determine fair value.



 I like your approach, Macros;

You take as much "eggspurt opinion" and "consensus forecast" out of the equation as possible. In fact, it seems you've found a way to eliminate *all of that*. 

Just for clarification: Do you use the *US *data to gauge *Australian *conditions? Or have you found the equivalent Australian stats, to which you apply the calculations that work for US data?
While the USA have exerted the dominant influence on global macro-economic conditions, one might argue that other regions are rapidly gaining ground - for example Europe, albeit as a rather "bad influence."

I note with interest your observation that Australian companies have on average the same eps as their American counterparts. How likely is that to change? And if it is, can you detect it and adjust? What about the big difference between policy options available to Fed as opposed to RBA ?


----------



## Macros (7 January 2012)

Thank you Pixel,



> Just for clarification: Do you use the US data to gauge Australian conditions? Or have you found the equivalent Australian stats, to which you apply the calculations that work for US data?
> While the USA have exerted the dominant influence on global macro-economic conditions, one might argue that other regions are rapidly gaining ground - for example Europe, albeit as a rather "bad influence."




I use the US data for Australian earnings. They are highly correlated, but have different rate of change - so it makes perfect sense for me and it works. US and Aus EPS side to side is a very interesting graph.


----------



## professor_frink (7 January 2012)

skc said:


> The average person who started investing in the 1960s (in US) did not beat inflation today. And that's over 50 years...




Am I missing something here

The only negative real returns on that chart on the right hand column are from people buying at the end of the tech boom.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (7 January 2012)

Macros said:


> I now have two indicators for the overall market. Firstly, one which determines fair value based on forward earnings estimates - but has the flaw of those estimates changing on a frequent basis. Secondly, one which determines fair value based on economic indicators and completely excludes past or future company earnings.




My issue with such things is that we are living in extremely unusual times where historic indicators may not (probably will not) hold up due to heavy manipulation of data, monetary supply - all sorts of things by governments and central banks.

Add to this the fact that the way many indicators (unemployment, inflation, gdp growth, etc) are calculated is changed overtime....

I would not trust any indicator.



mildew said:


> Why when our economy has been so strong albeit on the back of the miners only?




ASX has been underperforming DOW & SP500 since the start of December.

Our economy is not strong - it consists of houses and homes.

Houses are not being bought much, and prices are falling.
Holes are not exporting for as much money because China is going downhill.

There is *plenty* of future downside to both of them.


----------



## pixel (8 January 2012)

Macros said:


> Thank you Pixel,
> 
> I use the US data for Australian earnings. They are highly correlated, but have different rate of change - so it makes perfect sense for me and it works. US and Aus EPS side to side is a very interesting graph.



 Hi Macros;

I visited your website and found it interesting how, from a different base, you arrived in the same ballpark: 4300, that my Option Spread Analysis suggests.
I follow the distribution of ASX Index Options and try an educated guess at the likely target at the respective expiry date. The January series has been fairly clear for a while: unlikely less than 4100, with luck (if you're Long) possibly a little above 4250. 




"Protection" at 4300 has recently intensified; therefore I believe we won't see 43xx within the next week or two.
A similar analysis for the end of FY 2011/12 tells me that a considerable number of traders fear a drop as low as 3200, but strong protection lies as high as 3900-4000; at this stage, it seems that nobody really believes 4550-4600 to be exceeded.




Being so far out, the June picture can still change significantly; but even as early as now, I find it interesting that the general sentiment - those 3200 fears notwithstanding - seems to expect relatively little change: call it 4300 +/- 150.


----------



## Macros (8 January 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> My issue with such things is that we are living in extremely unusual times where historic indicators may not (probably will not) hold up due to heavy manipulation of data, monetary supply - all sorts of things by governments and central banks.
> 
> Add to this the fact that the way many indicators (unemployment, inflation, gdp growth, etc) are calculated is changed overtime....
> 
> I would not trust any indicator.




Whilst I understand where you are coming from, I disagree with your conclusion.

Manipulation of data is not new, to 2011/12, however this indicator has worked exceptionally well during the whole time period.

Increases to money supply flows through to an impact on stocks. You may mean, for example, that the FED's balance sheet could increase without showing up on money supply data, however this is probably okay for my purposes as it could be the case that the increases in assets have offset debt destruction in other areas. Also, if it flows through to the banking system and they use assets for leverage, then it will inevitably flow through to the data.

Unless the data is removed, or becomes outright fraudulent, then I'm happy to use it. It has been working and is currently working, so I don't see any reason not to use it until it actually breaks down. I do not believe that this has occurred.

I haven't used unemployment, inflation or GDP figures in my indicator. Had I done so, I would agree with you.

I'm happy to trust an indicator if it has worked and continues to work. I accept that things can change at any point, however until they do then I can only work with what I have available. Should things change, then I will adapt and find another solution.


----------



## Macros (8 January 2012)

pixel said:


> Hi Macros;
> 
> I visited your website and found it interesting how, from a different base, you arrived in the same ballpark: 4300, that my Option Spread Analysis suggests.




Pixel,

I see no reason why two completely different approaches cannot reach the same conclusion. It is very interesting. I had someone say the same thing with pure TA.

I like your ideas about option analysis - thanks for sharing. Sounds like something I will turn my attention to when I find some time, as options are my preferred mechanism for trend trading, which I plan to use in conjunction with my indicators. Thus far I have invested solely based on individual stock value, but I'm looking to diversify my approach.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (8 January 2012)

Macros said:


> I'm happy to trust an indicator if it has worked and continues to work. I accept that things can change at any point, however until they do then I can only work with what I have available. Should things change, then I will adapt and find another solution.




A respectable position, best of luck with it.


----------



## skc (9 January 2012)

professor_frink said:


> Am I missing something here
> 
> The only negative real returns on that chart on the right hand column are from people buying at the end of the tech boom.




You are quite right. I read the wrong shade of red. Those who bought in the 60s produced below median return over 50yrs but still beat inflation between 0 to 3%.


----------



## odds-on (9 January 2012)

Macros said:


> I don't believe in buy and hold, as it is usually a symptom of either a lack of investment strategy or just pure lack of understanding. My philosophy is to buy under-priced companies with growing value in favourable macro conditions. I look to achieve very high rates of return and detest losses.
> 
> As such, it is important to know where the overall market is headed as that will usually have a substantial influence on individual stock selections and the types of companies that will do well in a particular environment.
> 
> ...




Macros,

Great work. Do you have any thoughts on the Buffett ratio for stock market valuation? The Buffett ratio being Market Capitalisation expressed as a percentage of GNP. See link below:

http://www.fool.com.au/2011/08/investing/buffett-ratio-says-stocks-look-interesting/

I personally see great value in adopting an investment strategy using this type of ratio to invest in large monopoly/duopoly/oligopoly type companies which have significant recurring revenues - companies that are the "economy" so to speak. When the Buffett ratio is 80% or less load up and when it equals fair value then sell. Repeat until retirement.

Cheers

Oddson


----------



## Macros (9 January 2012)

odds-on said:


> Macros,
> 
> Great work. Do you have any thoughts on the Buffett ratio for stock market valuation? The Buffett ratio being Market Capitalisation expressed as a percentage of GNP. See link below:
> 
> ...




Thanks Oddson,

I've looked at many indicators and have never found any that felt right for me - hence the drive to create my own and to attempt some sort of innovation.

With regards to the one you mention, I remember having a look at that years ago. Two problems that I can see: 

First, is the reliability of GNP as a measure. 

Second, is the use of this as a timing mechanism. From memory, I think Buffett was negative on stocks in the early 70s, when this index was at 80? and didn't bottom out for a few years. 

Overall, I think if one had a 10 year minimum time-frame for each investment decision, then the market as % of GNP could be a good long term indicator to find better times to enter and times for caution. I would suspect that this would best be used in conjunction with some other tools.


----------



## pixel (9 January 2012)

It probably boils down to life expectancy, I guess.
When WB started out, he would've been in his 30's, maybe early 40's. And it's probably also fair to assume he didn't have to worry about putting food on the table while he was learning the ropes.

Speaking as a "Boomer" though, I'd imagine many of my generation would've started "learning the ropes" well in their 50's, if not later. If we studied and applied strategies that resulted in profits after a decade, chances are that Al Z. would get us and we'd forgotten what to do with those profits 

No criticism implied of long-term strategies; I merely wish to explain the reason why I want, even need, to target at least average *monthly *earnings.


----------



## Macros (9 January 2012)

pixel said:


> It probably boils down to life expectancy, I guess.
> When WB started out, he would've been in his 30's, maybe early 40's. And it's probably also fair to assume he didn't have to worry about putting food on the table while he was learning the ropes.
> 
> Speaking as a "Boomer" though, I'd imagine many of my generation would've started "learning the ropes" well in their 50's, if not later. If we studied and applied strategies that resulted in profits after a decade, chances are that Al Z. would get us and we'd forgotten what to do with those profits
> ...




The other factor with buffet is that he was able to successfully invest during the biggest credit bubble the world has seen. Given the tail-winds, his long term approach was definitely appropriate for the environment.


----------



## young-gun (9 January 2012)

Macros said:


> The other factor with buffet is that he was able to successfully invest during the biggest credit bubble the world has seen. Given the tail-winds, his long term approach was definitely appropriate for the environment.




Unfortunately alot of boomers have themselves convinced it was their brilliant trading approach and ability that lead them to such success in this period of time. when all you had to do was buy shares to be a winner(within reason, of course, there was no doubt a few bad eggs).

Thats not at all to discredit Mr Buffett and is not in reference to him, or anyone particular.


----------



## pixel (9 January 2012)

young-gun said:


> Unfortunately alot of boomers have themselves convinced it was their brilliant trading approach and ability that lead them to such success in this period of time. when all you had to do was buy shares to be a winner(within reason, of course, there was no doubt a few bad eggs).
> 
> Thats not at all to discredit Mr Buffett and is not in reference to him, or anyone particular.



 Have you read the title of this thread?
If it were as simple as you claim, how come we're discussing the market going "nowhere for 7 years"?

Mind you, I don't lay claim to any brilliance, be it in trading or other achievements in life. It's nothing but good luck that my results from 2007/08 onwards show increasing profit margins.

(I like the cereal ad, where Dad says to Daughter "I'm not young enough to know everything.")


----------



## Macros (10 January 2012)

I think the title of this thread may become redundant soon. Likely will be 'ALL ORDS went nowhere for 6 YEARS!' (or even 5 years if we are VERY lucky).




I updated my economic indicator with the latest data and it is becoming very bullish. Note that the target is not a hard target, but more an indication of the direction and potential strength.

So for now bullish (IMO), but potential detractors later may come through from either further sovereign debt focus or from too high oil prices.


----------



## young-gun (13 January 2012)

pixel said:


> Have you read the title of this thread?
> If it were as simple as you claim, how come we're discussing the market going "nowhere for 7 years"?
> 
> Mind you, I don't lay claim to any brilliance, be it in trading or other achievements in life. It's nothing but good luck that my results from 2007/08 onwards show increasing profit margins.
> ...




i like the way boomers get so defensive about their generation when mentioned on this forum.

i'm well aware of the title, but if you read my post (apologies if it isnt clear) you will notice the period of time i was referencing was the boomers credit boom(that warren buffet took advantage of), which as opposed to inflating and pushing the market up, has in recent years been trying to deflate and push the market down. 

in 2005 the credit boom was still in full swing, in fact it was only about half way done. all ords were at around 4000 in jan 05. and im sure i dont need to tell you then pushed to a whopping 6900 at peak in 2008 sometime. the gfc was the beginning of the end of the credit boom.

my point still stands, any moron could have bought shares in this period and done well(once again, within reason) and once again this is not in reference to anyone on this forum. anyone who actively discusses economics would no doubt have some idea as to what they are doing, these are not the people i am referring to.

please feel free to pull the quote where i claimed to know everything. that fact that i am currently not invested in anything would be an indicator that i have no idea. and dont sell yourself short, pixel, anyone who has made boast-able profits from 08 onwards is doing well imo.


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2012)

Hello everybody I thought I'd return to this thread I started exactly 12 Months ago to the day. There were a lot of opinions and wild predictions out there but the figures are in.

XAO went up 13.5% this year. What a ripper of a year it's been for me anyways.

The title of the thread does not need to be changed. The All Ords has still gone nowhere for 7 years. We touched this point the first time back on 19/12/2005 when the all ords closed at 4671 (near enough).

Anyhow here are some comments from 12 Months ago, cheers.




dutchie said:


> 5700 (don't ask) (emphasis on *punt*)




Way out, never mind.



Bill M said:


> OK I'm going to take a punt too, 4919:




I was out too, only 255 points though.



Dougs Antiques said:


> My punt
> All Ords will be up by 8% at 4440




Pretty close old mate.



LifeChoices said:


> I can't see 2012 ASX being that flash - but hey, you never can tell.
> 
> Happy New Year




Happy New Year to you too, sorry but a 13.5% increase was pretty good.



Aussiejeff said:


> On a side note, at the end of 2012, a year when depressed Eurozone countries have to find refinancing for around 1 TRILLION EUROS worth of sovereign debt - yep, you read that correctly - I predict this thread will be changed to *"ALL ORDS went no where for 8 YEARS!!"*
> 
> Crappy New Year?



Not that crappy, however it's still at only going nowhere for 7 years, you were pretty close too.

More to come.


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2012)

young-gun said:


> all ords to 3000, chinas collapse is imminent, there wont be many positives after june/july next year. european leaders are already calling for a very tough year ahead, and if theyre calling it tough, it actually means its going to be horrific.




Man, you got it so wrong on all accounts, all ords is 55% higher than what you thought it would be.



DB008 said:


> +1
> China slow down will have an effect on us here in Oz.
> 
> l'm going for 3400.




See above.



Starcraftmazter said:


> Bear market bearing down on us all. It will continue into the next year and the next 2 decades.



Wrong.



Aussiejeff said:


> Ya, cash feels good atm.
> 
> Sleeping much better.




What are you going to do now? You made 5% on your cash, the all ords gained 13.5%. What will you do with your money for 2013?



So_Cynical said:


> I've been near fully invested since mid 2007...my PA return (gross dividends and distributions) on (original) capital is close to 10% ~ PA return (gross dividends and distributions) on recycled capital close to 7%




Well done.


----------



## CanOz (31 December 2012)

Amazing how easy it is to get it wrong, completely. 

That's why I'd rather trade equities with an algorithm. I dont need to think about the sentiment.

So many bears got it so wrong in 2012, the most hated bull market in history must be.

Happy New Year all!

CanOz


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2012)

Wysiwyg said:


> Remember CBA IPO? And what about long term BHP or ANN or RHC?




I bought CBA at the float when it was around $10.45. Then I bought some more in the $40's somewhere. Then the crash came and I loaded up at $26, now they are all gone at around $58. Didn't pick the top but I'm very happy with the profits.



robusta said:


> Any strangely some seem to profit from this strategy - take a look at the performance of ARG over the last 20 years, they have returned 9.4% pa compared to the all ord acc index 8.9% pa - this includes the last 7 years!




That is true investing, my kind of investing. Nothing like those sweet dividends.



mildew said:


> I feel tired and defeated after 5 years of watching my super (since I retired) go down the gurgler. So I'll say 4,100.




How do you feel now? Up 13.5%? I hope you didn't cash out at the lows. Are still about? I'd like to hear how you are going, cheers.



Macros said:


> I think the title of this thread may become redundant soon. Likely will be 'ALL ORDS went nowhere for 6 YEARS!' (or even 5 years if we are VERY lucky).




Nup, it's still 7 years, what about next year?


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2012)

Ok it's New Years Eve, I wish everybody good health, wealth and a Happy New Year.

Let's have another punt for 2013 year end just for fun. 

Where do you think the All Ords will be at year end 2013?

I will go first, 4,919 same as my last years wrong prediction. 

Good luck everyone.


----------



## wayneL (31 December 2012)

I'll go with the money printers... 5200


----------



## burglar (31 December 2012)

wayneL said:


> I'll go with the money printers... 5200




My horrorscope says 5178.3


----------



## cynic (31 December 2012)

burglar said:


> My horrorscope says 5178.3




My coffee grounds poop all over your horrorscope: 3900 for the XJO futures.

Disclaimer:Coffee grounds are somewhat inferior to tea leaves, do not try this at home, I am an untrained amateur!


----------



## So_Cynical (31 December 2012)

Ill go 5050, its a lottery really.


----------



## Julia (31 December 2012)

No idea.  Too much in question to make any valid prediction.
At this very moment, we do not know whether the US will find a last moment solution to falling off the fiscal cliff.
Just one example.


----------



## brty (1 January 2013)

Given the fact that the All ords or its backdated equivalent have never failed to make a run for the top 6 years after the previous top, plus the declining interest rate environment for savings, I'm prepared to have an out there guess.

6000. Meaning of course a 30% year for 2013.

The alternative is that the economic conditions are worse than at any time in the last 125 years for this country, a premis that I discount.


----------



## CanOz (1 January 2013)

I'm going with "who cares, as long as its above the index filter for as long as possible"!

CanOz


----------



## captain black (1 January 2013)

CanOz said:


> I'm going with "who cares, as long as its above the index filter for as long as possible"!
> 
> CanOz




A big +1 to that...


----------



## sydboy007 (6 January 2013)

no idea where it will be.  I'm hoping she'll be right, but I don't think the world has had so many major economic blocs printing so much money at the same time.

All that financial repression means billions of people either accept below CPI interest rates, or they are forced into shares and other risky assets.  They will do it, but every there's a stumble somewhere, the rush back to bonds will be swift.

Could be a traders paradise...or hell...depending on which end of the trade you're on.

Might have a better idea of how things are going once profit reporting season is out of the way in a couple of months.  If profits are holding up, then 5200 is possible.  Unless profits are growing really strongly I can't see much of the market being able to defy gravity that much.


----------



## tech/a (6 January 2013)

brty said:


> Given the fact that the All ords or its backdated equivalent have never failed to make a run for the top 6 years after the previous top, plus the declining interest rate environment for savings, I'm prepared to have an out there guess.
> 
> 6000. Meaning of course a 30% year for 2013.
> 
> The alternative is that the economic conditions are worse than at any time in the last 125 years for this country, a premis that I discount.




While the cancer may not be visible
It's there and one day it will appear.
Right now it's just growing.

We are just a small part of the body infected.


----------



## wayneL (6 January 2013)

tech/a said:


> While the cancer may not be visible
> It's there and one day it will appear.
> Right now it's just growing.
> 
> We are just a small part of the body infected.




The patient is on massive doses of morphine though, and is oblivious to its condition.


----------



## CanOz (6 January 2013)

wayneL said:


> The patient is on massive doses of morphine though, and is oblivious to its condition.




Interesting, Europe is actually in recession. Will the austerity measures that pushed them into recessions be enough to expedite the de-leveraging that needs to happen?

If so, Europe could be at the end of their business cycle relatively soon, in time for the US to start their next recession....

CanOz


----------



## brty (6 January 2013)

I am quite happy in the fact that most see nothing but raodblocks ahead. Historically speaking, investment in stocks is always best when things look the bleakest.
When all the good news is in and profits are growing, nothing but bluesky ahead, is usually the worst time to invest. Do many of the gloomy posters here see this time as different?

The printing of all the money has to find a home that will earn it something. With ZIRP and printing, where will the money end up? Looking at the SPX in the US, we have new 5 yearly highs, yet some will look at the bigger picture and see a triple top.

Sydboy,


> Might have a better idea of how things are going once profit reporting season is out of the way in a couple of months. If profits are holding up, then 5200 is possible. Unless profits are growing really strongly I can't see much of the market being able to defy gravity that much.




Over many years I have seen this "just wait until after profit season" reason trotted out. Yet it neve seem to change anything, because there is another profit season just around the corner. The most likely course of events is that prices rise unexpectedly, then there are good profits announced, of course the opposite happens in bear markets.

Which part of the market do you see as currently "able to defy gravity" at present?


----------



## FlyingFox (6 January 2013)

brty said:


> I am quite happy in the fact that most see nothing but raodblocks ahead. Historically speaking, investment in stocks is always best when things look the bleakest.
> When all the good news is in and profits are growing, nothing but bluesky ahead, is usually the worst time to invest. Do many of the gloomy posters here see this time as different?
> 
> The printing of all the money has to find a home that will earn it something. With ZIRP and printing, where will the money end up? Looking at the SPX in the US, we have new 5 yearly highs, yet some will look at the bigger picture and see a triple top.
> ...





Here's my reasoning for thinking why things might be different this time around. I think it might be a few yrs old.

http://www.china-europe-usa.com/level_4_data/hum/011_2.htm
http://www.china-europe-usa.com/level_4_data/hum/011_7.htm

Would be interesting to see the Oz one as well. I know that the birth rate has been below replacement for quite some time.

The money is/will be going into the hole created by the change in pop composition.


----------



## sydboy007 (6 January 2013)

brty said:


> Sydboy,
> 
> 
> Over many years I have seen this "just wait until after profit season" reason trotted out. Yet it neve seem to change anything, because there is another profit season just around the corner. The most likely course of events is that prices rise unexpectedly, then there are good profits announced, of course the opposite happens in bear markets.
> ...




Anything paying 5% of more yield will prob do OK.  prob anything in the top 50 will hold its value too.

With economic growth at trend, the velocity of debt the lowest in decades, profit growth is going to be hard to come by without good management and a focus on costs.  Low profit growth means current prices are at fair levels.

Any company that can offer 5%+ yield and a reasonable belief of EPS growth is prob a good bet.

The prob is BHP and the MegaBank 4 are such a huge % of the All ordinaries it's really all about them, and maybe Rio and the Cozy Grocery duo. Most of the Top 20 stocks had such a good run up over Nov and Dec, they ain't cheap any more.

Buy for the long term, and sell for rational reasons is prob the best thing I can say


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2013)

Here we are 2 years after I started this thread and today the All Ords closed at 5353.

Up 14.8% for the Year.

But the All Ords still hasn't gone up for *7 long years*.

The first time the XAO hit 5353 was way back in October 2006. Our market has been a real slacker.

Well done to wayneL and sydboy007, they picked the XAO at finishing up at the 5,200 mark. They were the closest guess, good work boys.



wayneL said:


> I'll go with the money printers... 5200






sydboy007 said:


> If profits are holding up, then 5200 is possible.


----------



## Muschu (31 December 2013)

tech/a said:


> While the cancer may not be visible
> It's there and one day it will appear.
> Right now it's just growing.
> 
> We are just a small part of the body infected.




Comment cancelled.


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2014)

Just for fun, does anyone want to have a punt on where the XAO will end up on 31/12/2014?

I'll start off first, tea leaves are telling me 5,931.

Good luck to you all and may 2014 bring you health, wealth and happiness.


----------



## skc (2 January 2014)

Bill M said:


> Just for fun, does anyone want to have a punt on where the XAO will end up on 31/12/2014?




A high of 5680 achieved in the first half, followed by a downdraft and finishing the year at 5180.


----------



## McLovin (2 January 2014)

5900.


----------



## cynic (2 January 2014)

burglar said:


> My horrorscope says 5178.3






cynic said:


> My coffee grounds poop all over your horrorscope: 3900 for the XJO futures.
> 
> Disclaimer:Coffee grounds are somewhat inferior to tea leaves, do not try this at home, I am an untrained amateur!




How can this be?!!!

Burglar's horrorscope has outperformed my coffee grounds!!!

As an accomplished analytical trader there is only one logical conclusion that may be drawn!

My coffee supplier has sold me a defective jar of coffee!!!

I shall take this matter up with the relevent office of consumer affairs and fair trading forthwith.

Unfortunately, I shall have to refrain from proffering further predictions until this matter is satisfactorily resolved.


----------



## qldfrog (2 January 2014)

Bill M said:


> Just for fun, does anyone want to have a punt on where the XAO will end up on 31/12/2014?
> 
> I'll start off first, tea leaves are telling me 5,931.
> 
> Good luck to you all and may 2014 bring you health, wealth and happiness.



I will increase the stakes:
xao will be below 4500 in 2014,
xao will finish 2014 AT 5150

BACK TO MY CUPPA!!!


----------



## CanOz (2 January 2014)

qldfrog said:


> *I will increase the stakes*:
> xao will be below 4500 in 2014,
> xao will finish 2014 AT 5150
> 
> BACK TO MY CUPPA!!!




Doesn't that mean to want to increase the bet?


----------



## Buckfont (2 January 2014)

I accidentally dropped the container of toothpicks for the frankfurters over the table yesterday and they landed like this....

VDCXCIX.  I told the housekeeper not to move them as no-one would believe it.


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2014)

Buckfont said:


> I accidentally dropped the container of toothpicks for the frankfurters over the table yesterday and they landed like this....
> 
> VDCXCIX.  I told the housekeeper not to move them as no-one would believe it.




Classic! As I am not up to where I should be with my Roman Numerals I googled it, VDCXCIX corresponde al nÃºmero 5699...... 

You made me work today


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2014)

cynic said:


> Unfortunately, I shall have to refrain from proffering further predictions until this matter is satisfactorily resolved.






CanOz said:


> Doesn't that mean to want to increase the bet?




Come on you techno gurus you can do better than that, throw everything at it, have a punt. We aint playen for sheep stations....


----------



## beachlife (2 January 2014)

4529 (Fib 38%)


----------



## burglar (2 January 2014)

Bill M said:


> ... We aint playen for sheep stations....




Not that sheep stations are worth much these days?!

5579.3



Q. How do you make a million dollars?
A.  Make two million dollars and buy a winery!! :


----------



## qldfrog (3 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> Doesn't that mean to want to increase the bet?




yes as I add an low as well...but all I am ready to bet is a cuppa with one of our frequent member, not much more...not that confident in my TA.


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (3 January 2014)

5980

<.<

>.>

Don't tell anyone

Cheers
Sir O


----------



## Chris45 (3 January 2014)

*Re: ALL ORDS went no where for 7 YEARS!!*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just be patient and wait for a Wave 3.
> It could take years or it could be in April/May 2012.
> Patience is required.
> gg






I'm very keen to hear what my new Elliott Wave guru says.


----------



## CanOz (3 January 2014)

Well someone has to be a bear....i guess i'll do....3900, -+200


----------



## cynic (5 January 2014)

Bill M said:


> Come on you techno gurus you can do better than that, throw everything at it, have a punt. We aint playen for sheep stations....




As already mentioned, my data supplier sold me a defective jar of coffee!

However, since you insist on placing me in such a precarious position, I shall endeavour to accommodate despite the presence of corruptions within my historical data.

Desperate situations call for desperate measures! 

In desperate circumstances such as these I've found that there's one thing I can always depend upon! 

You guessed it! 

The oracular wisdom of a superior being - namely EZ Answer Squirrel!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njuq0NundBE


Please feel free to consult said oracle for a 2014 prediction. 

(Please note, due to obvious mystical elevation, EZ Answer Squirrel is only able to communicate to us lowly beings via binary responses. i.e. a series of: is it above?/is it below? style questions will enable one to discern a meaningful answer from such a lofty source.)


----------



## piggybank (19 August 2014)

It maybe ready for a breakout...


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2014)

Markets are now closed for the year and the All Ords ended flat for the 12 Months. In fact up only 35 points or .6%. Not really a good result for the year.

*The All Ords first hit this level more than 8 long years ago*. We are going backwards compared to the rest of the world.

Out of the 9 people on this forum that took a punt on where the All Ords would end skc came the closest. He predicted  5180.

Lets hope for a better 2015. Happy New Year to all of you and good luck with your investments.


----------



## Bill M (1 January 2015)

Found this story on the subject.

---
Australian sharemarket one of the worst global performers in 2014

The Australian sharemarket ranks as one of the worst performers relative to its global equity market peers in 2014, amid a softening economy and dramatic falls in oil and iron ore prices.

Figures compiled by CommSec reveal that Australia ranked 44 out of 73 global exchanges, putting it on the bottom rung of the performance table.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/australian-sharemarket-one-of-the-worst-global-performers-in-2014-20141223-12cvc0.html#ixzz3NX6vFnbd


---


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 January 2015)

Bill M said:


> amid a softening economy and dramatic falls in oil and iron ore prices.




I keep hearing (media etc) how falling oil prices have harmed Australia in some way.

And yet Australia is a net importer of oil. We produce some yes, but production is well short of consumption such that overall a fall in oil prices should be a good thing for Australia (obviously bad for oil producers, but good as a whole).


----------



## qldfrog (1 January 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> I keep hearing (media etc) how falling oil prices have harmed Australia in some way.
> 
> And yet Australia is a net importer of oil. We produce some yes, but production is well short of consumption such that overall a fall in oil prices should be a good thing for Australia (obviously bad for oil producers, but good as a whole).




but not good for gas or coal and as we are huge net exporter there, we are getting hit a big way


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 January 2015)

qldfrog said:


> but not good for gas or coal and as we are huge net exporter there, we are getting hit a big way




The oil price is nowhere near low enough yet to compete with coal. The coal price has certainly dropped, but that's due to market dynamics with coal itself and not because of a fall in the oil price. Oil at present prices is still around 5 times the price of coal so not really competing against it.

I'd just rather see accurate reporting, that's all. Most commodities seem to be falling in price, some quite significantly, and yet there's a media obsession with iron ore and oil. There's not much being said about the fall in the price of copper, for example.

At the risk of needing to put the tin foil hat on, I think there's a bit of reluctance on the part of the media and indeed anyone to really join the dots. In 2015 we've got too much of practically everything and prices are falling. It's not just iron ore, electricity or oil, it's just about everything that we've got more than enough of right now. Joining the dots, that's because the "real" economy hasn't grown anywhere near as much as most assumed it would, thus making a lot of the recent investment in supply (of just about everything) unnecessary.


----------



## qldfrog (1 January 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Joining the dots, that's because the "real" economy hasn't grown anywhere near as much as most assumed it would, thus making a lot of the recent investment in supply (of just about everything) unnecessary.



I would not dispute that: with manufacturing gone, IT gone, automation and outsourcing  starting to hit backend white collars/back office and a will to reduce public service, where can you find activity for australians or americans/europeans, not mentionning the huge influx of migrants be it here, in the US or Europe;
There is a limit to the number of health and safety, or governance officers you can  "create" as is the number of hamburger flippers required in a society.
The usual answer is to pretend that new jobs will be created that we do not even envision etc etc
yet we start from a base where globally 1/3 of people are already unemployable/assisted, not from a full time employment  base as in the 70s.
So if we remove an extra 1/3 of the jobs I doubt the remaining workers will be able to support the rest of society and no one will be willing to fund government deficits anymore.
And we obviously need less of everything, we are contracting

I am optimistic for the share market here in the second half of 2015, not so much for the economy of western society


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 January 2015)

I recall hearing someone, an economist (from the US I think) basically saying that for an extended period we'd have the "muddle through economy".

No real growth, but no outright collapse either. Just "muddle through" for an extended period. Whilst he was referring to the US, I think much the same could be said of Australia. Take out the now bust mining boom and we've indeed been muddling through for quite some time and that's reflected in the ASX.


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2015)

qldfrog said:


> but not good for gas or coal and as we are huge net exporter there, we are getting hit a big way






Smurf1976 said:


> Take out the now bust mining boom and we've indeed been muddling through for quite some time and that's reflected in the ASX.




Yes but 3 years ago when this thread was started we were in the middle of the mining boom and yet our market wasn't going anywhere at that time either. As that article I posted before says, being ranked 44 out of 76 global exchanges is a pretty poor performance. Are we really doing that badly compared to the rest of the world?


----------



## qldfrog (2 January 2015)

let's not forget the influence on the ASX of foreign ownership:
last year was a year where any foreigner with a bit of a clue would have run away if only not to be hit by the 15% and going currency depreciation.
It is actually amzing that the asx did not fall further, probably only thanks to the mandatory super investments
"stockmarket bubble by law"


----------



## Ariyahn2011 (2 January 2015)

The Newzealand Stock Market seems to be smashing us. I wonder if ASX will have its 'real' bull run over the coming decade.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 January 2015)

Bill M said:


> Yes but 3 years ago when this thread was started we were in the middle of the mining boom and yet our market wasn't going anywhere at that time either.



A lot of the ASX companies aren't involved in mining however, and of those that are in mining not all are actually running a real, profitable mine. So only a certain % of stocks directly benefited from the mining boom, any benefit to the likes of TLS or WOW being very indirect and more a function of the economy overall (consumer spending). OK, mining boom probably added to consumer spending, but it's still a very indirect linkage for things like retailers and banks.

Right now however, I'd argue that the AUD is likely to be a bigger influence going forward. So long as the AUD remains relatively over valued and trending down, Australian stocks (or indeed any asset in AUD) aren't overly attractive for foreigners.

Adding to that in the short term, domestically we have quite a bit of political turmoil. I'll avoid commenting on that here, leave that for the political threads, but regardless of anyone's personal viewpoint it seems fair to say that the current environment, both political and the underlying financial aspects, is creating a lot of uncertainty with regard to both near term future policy of the present government and how long the government itself will last. 

Nobody could really say with any certainty what personal or company tax rates we'll have in 3 years' time, or even 6 months time for that matter, whether or not there will be changes to CGT or dividend imputation, whether or not we'll have a carbon tax (in whatever form) reintroduced. Etc. There's a huge amount of uncertainty at the moment. Without commenting politically, it seems clear that something has to change financially but there's no clear direction as to what the changes will actually be or when they'll happen. Add in rising unemployment and the general decline of economic growth, to the point that the "r word" (recession) is being thrown around quite a bit, and that's not exactly encouraging optimism in the future.


----------



## Ariyahn2011 (2 January 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> A lot of the ASX companies aren't involved in mining however, and of those that are in mining not all are actually running a real, profitable mine. So only a certain % of stocks directly benefited from the mining boom, any benefit to the likes of TLS or WOW being very indirect and more a function of the economy overall (consumer spending). OK, mining boom probably added to consumer spending, but it's still a very indirect linkage for things like retailers and banks.
> 
> Right now however, I'd argue that the AUD is likely to be a bigger influence going forward. So long as the AUD remains relatively over valued and trending down, Australian stocks (or indeed any asset in AUD) aren't overly attractive for foreigners.
> 
> ...




Surely over the next deacade the All ords will improve? overall?


----------



## Julia (2 January 2015)

Ariyahn2011 said:


> The Newzealand Stock Market seems to be smashing us.



The NZ economy in general is very healthy.  Interest rates are rising whereas the most likely next move here will be a further cut, so sluggish is the Australian economy.
https://www.newzealandnow.govt.nz/investing-in-nz/opportunities-outlook/economic-overview



Ariyahn2011 said:


> Surely over the next deacade the All ords will improve? overall?



If you have a look at a ten year chart you'll see a strong bull market occurring before the GFC and since then periods when the XAO has risen well.

Just my view, of course, but I wouldn't be too optimistic about anything much happening  here until there is a more stable and successful political situation, leading to public confidence which is minimal at present.


----------



## Ariyahn2011 (2 January 2015)

Bit of a shame isn't it.


----------



## Wysiwyg (2 January 2015)

Plenty of stocks have multiplied and are continuing up trend in the last 7 years regardless of the XAO gyrations. There are stocks starting their long term up trend now but I don't which ones they are.


----------



## waterbottle (2 January 2015)

Julia said:


> The NZ economy in general is very healthy.  Interest rates are rising whereas the most likely next move here will be a further cut, so sluggish is the Australian economy.
> https://www.newzealandnow.govt.nz/investing-in-nz/opportunities-outlook/economic-overview




I am curious as to which aspect of the NZ economy is better than the Australian economy. Both are heavily reliant on Chinese consumption and both are susceptible to slowdowns in China. Ironically, NZ's biggest trading partner is Australia (according to your link), so if the Australian economy is doing poorly then surely NZ would be feeling it too.

I suspect that the improvements in the NZD and NZX50 are partly due to the higher interest rates and restrictions imposed on property speculation. The NZ OCR is now at 3.5% (was lifted 4x throughout 2014) and the RBNZ has made moves to implement higher LVRs and holding capital requirements in regards to mortgages. The Aus OCR remains 2.5% and the RBA does not think there is a problem with housing.


----------



## qldfrog (2 January 2015)

NZ relies on China consumption of food,
we rely on iron/colking coal (that China do possess locally as well)
once the average chinese has bought his flat, he/she may first start to eat better beforer thinking of buying one car and join the traffic jams or a new bigger flat;
NZ can be indexed to china's consumption whereas we are indexed to China production for europe/US exports and infrastructure;
At the current stage, i believe NZ is much better placed.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 January 2015)

qldfrog said:


> NZ relies on China consumption of food,
> we rely on iron/colking coal (that China do possess locally as well)




There's also a quality issue. Coal is coal, if it meets the required specifications to run the steel mill or power station then that's all that matters. It goes into the furnace and gets burnt, where it comes from is pretty much irrelevant so far as the mill or power plant is concerned as long as they get sufficient supply.

Food on the other hand is very much subject to consumer preference and it's no secret that even the Chinese themselves have some concerns about the quality of local food. There is thus a market for good quality imports from "clean" locations regardless of China's own production (well, unless the Chinese government were to ban imports). Note the issue with baby formula - the Chinese have a definite preference for imported product from a "safe" supplier that won't likely add plastic, wood etc to it.

So NZ will keep selling food no matter what whereas Australia will only sell them coal etc as required to cover the gap between China's consumption and its' own production. Note in that context that China is by far the world's largest coal producer, they'd only have to raise production a few % to completely wipe out imports whereas the same doesn't really apply to food.

Back to the markets, confidence has a lot to do with it. I spoke to someone only this afternoon and without me mentioning anything concerning economics they mentioned job security. They're worried about their situation, and that's someone who has what would seem to be an "essential" job in the public service. I won't be too specific to avoid identifying them, but it's a compliance type job that nobody in their right mind would either abandon or outsource due to the obvious risk of corruption if there's a profit motive brought into it. But there's a review about to commence, and anyone who has ever worked in the PS knows what that means - a nice set of words and paperwork to justify a decision that has most likely already been made. Needless to say, he's not throwing money around on anything non-essential at the moment.

Now extend that to countless other workers both in the private sector and the public service. Plenty of people working for private enterprise would be a bit worried at the moment given overall circumstances and it's hard to imagine that anyone working in the PS would feel too confident right now given all the cuts going on both federal and state.

People feel insecure, they stop spending, business profits fall, more jobs are lost - that's how recessions are created.


----------



## Julia (2 January 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> People feel insecure, they stop spending, business profits fall, more jobs are lost - that's how recessions are created.



Agree absolutely.
Which is why I suggested earlier


> I wouldn't be too optimistic about anything much happening here until there is a more stable and successful political situation, leading to public confidence which is minimal at present.


----------



## rimtas (2 January 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> People feel insecure, they stop spending, business profits fall, more jobs are lost - that's how recessions are created.




Yes, you are absolutely right. That's how recessions are created, and I mean-numbers, according to which economy is in recession. But in reality recession is a consequence. People feel insecure, they stop spending, business profits fall and so on-these kind of events do not happen  overnight and they do not fall out of the blue either. It takes time for people to get from the state of confidence to the state where they feel insecure. 

In bull markets, this insecurity stays until All Time Highs are reached. Below is the zone of bears, where recession can happen in economy, but it would not have any impact on markets other than bullish. Markets will climb through the bearish heads and makes anyone wonder how this can be true.  But that's how markets operate-there is no logic here, only herding.

 If this is a bull market(I think it is), All _Bad_ news, opinions, articles, BRA movements, government actions and events are  Bullish signals for the market overall.. When you see a consensus of people interpreting some other people actions as bearish, you must know that this is actually bullish. 
 They are bearish only for one reason-the dark shadow of 2008 crash is breathing a hot air in their backs, and their limbic systems  just can't overcome it, forcing they neocortexes to find  "logical" bearish interpretations for everything.  Time and high ASX price levels will fix this in the years to come.
 If you are afraid, it is better to be long.


----------



## qldfrog (3 January 2015)

fully agreed so i stay bullish overall on the stock market, not on anything  else and definitively not on the economy


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Plenty of stocks have multiplied and are continuing up trend in the last 7 years regardless of the XAO gyrations. There are stocks starting their long term up trend now but I don't which ones they are.






rimtas said:


> If this is a bull market(I think it is), All _Bad_ news, opinions, articles, BRA movements, government actions and events are  Bullish signals for the market overall.. When you see a consensus of people interpreting some other people actions as bearish, you must know that this is actually bullish.
> *They are bearish only for one reason-the dark shadow of 2008 crash is breathing a hot air in their backs, and their limbic systems  just can't overcome it, forcing they neocortexes to find  "logical" bearish interpretations for everything.*  Time and high ASX price levels will fix this in the years to come.
> If you are afraid, it is better to be long.






qldfrog said:


> fully agreed so i stay bullish overall on the stock market, not on anything  else and definitively not on the economy




This is my position too. I believe markets could well power on. People are still spooked by the 2008-2009 events where a lot of them lost a great deal of money and even the slightest reversals drives them to sell everything.  I go the other way and with the two decent pullbacks to the 5,100 area in the last 3 Months I purchased stocks both times. 

I ignore the noise and focus on building an retirement income and to be honest I think our market is good value right now (even better when the XAO hit 5,100.) During the recent pullbacks I bought 2 high dividend yield ETF's for my super fund, both of them are paying distributions in the next few days, codes RDV and VHY. The funds both pay around 6 to 7% gross distributions and I don't have to do anything management wise. I just patiently wait for good pull backs and buy only when I think it good value. 

I have given up trying to beat the market by selecting my own stocks, I mostly buy well managed ETF's now and they fit in well with my super fund.

I think the XAO will go up during 2015. Does anyone want to have a punt on where the XAO will end up by 31/12/2015?

I'm going first, I think the XAO will run up to 5,931 by the end of 2015. What do you all think?


----------



## So_Cynical (3 January 2015)

Aussie market flat and slightly up over the short to mid term with the US powering ahead...the net 3 years will be all about the US recovery and the decline in commodities...even with the massive US debt, the story will be the growth of the US pie not the contents.


----------



## burglar (3 January 2015)

5555


----------



## Triathlete (3 January 2015)

2015--5840


----------



## rimtas (3 January 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> There are stocks starting their long term up trend now but I don't which ones they are.




I can give a hint- CBA, ANZ, WBC and the ones that are at ATH. WES should follow soon as it is very close to ATH.


----------



## Ariyahn2011 (3 January 2015)

burglar said:


> 5555




Thoughts on the XAO over a decade? All Ords at 17,000? at 2030 ?

http://www.smh.com.au/money/investi...rally-round-this-forecast-20130106-2cb24.html

Old report. But you never know.


----------



## Julia (3 January 2015)

Ariyahn2011 said:


> Thoughts on the XAO over a decade? All Ords at 17,000?



Yeah, right.


----------



## Ariyahn2011 (3 January 2015)

Julia said:


> Yeah, right.




Lol its possible!!! You never know!!


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2015)

Ariyahn2011 said:


> Thoughts on the XAO over a decade? All Ords at 17,000? at 2030 ?






Julia said:


> Yeah, right.






Ariyahn2011 said:


> Lol its possible!!! You never know!!




It's not out of the realm's of possibility. Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Index, it has almost trebled since about March 2009 and that took less than 5 years. We only need to treble to get to 17,000........ and 2030 is 15 in years time. I think it is quite achievable, 15 years is a long time and we are still 7 years off our all time high right now.


----------



## McLovin (3 January 2015)

Bill M said:


> It's not out of the realm's of possibility. Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Index, it has almost trebled since about March 2009 and that took less than 5 years. We only need to treble to get to 17,000........ and 2030 is 15 in years time. I think it is quite achievable, 15 years is a long time and we are still 7 years off our all time high right now.




I agree, Bill, but  I don't think it's likely. To get to 17,000 requires a ~7.8%pa in capital growth. That would be historically above average, but stranger things have happened. I certainly wouldn't be buying a new boat in anticipation.


----------



## Ariyahn2011 (3 January 2015)

I hope the AU Equities improves. I mean we have so much super. And I am pretty sure that helps the stock market a lot. Wondering what political changes can be made to improve the equities market? In Australia? What do you more seasoned professionals think? I also feel Australia has so many commodity stocks. Every second stock people are talking about are the little penny stocks in the gold/IO/silver sector. Perhaps Australia needs to diversify a bit? I dont know.


----------



## Julia (3 January 2015)

Ariyahn2011 said:


> Lol its possible!!! You never know!!






Bill M said:


> It's not out of the realm's of possibility. Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Index, it has almost trebled since about March 2009 and that took less than 5 years. We only need to treble to get to 17,000........ and 2030 is 15 in years time. I think it is quite achievable, 15 years is a long time and we are still 7 years off our all time high right now.






McLovin said:


> I agree, Bill, but  I don't think it's likely. To get to 17,000 requires a ~7.8%pa in capital growth. That would be historically above average, but stranger things have happened. I certainly wouldn't be buying a new boat in anticipation.




Of course it's possible.  Anything is possible, including a fall to 3000.
A realist would ask "is it likely"?

If anyone would like to engage with me in a bet of $100 that we will reach 17000 in the next decade, let me know.  I'd be very happy to pay up if it occurred.


----------



## McLovin (3 January 2015)

Bill M said:
			
		

> Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Index, it has almost trebled since about March 2009 and that took less than 5 years.




It's worth remembering that Australian companies pay dividends and American companies buy-back shares so a direct comparison between DJIA and XJO/XAO doesn't really work out. XAOAI is up ~120% from the bottom in early 2009, which is ~14.5%pa (before franking credits).


----------



## craft (4 January 2015)

Bill M said:


> It's not out of the realm's of possibility. Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Index, it has almost trebled since about March 2009 and that took less than 5 years. We only need to treble to get to 17,000........ and 2030 is 15 in years time. I think it is quite achievable, 15 years is a long time and we are still 7 years off our all time high right now.




I would say there is a way better then even chance of hitting 17,000+ prior to 2030 - whether it finishes at or above that point is a lower (but not low) probability.


----------



## McLovin (4 January 2015)

craft said:


> I would say there is a way better then even chance of hitting 17,000+ prior to 2030 - whether it finishes at or above that point is a lower (but not low) probability.




You reckon it's that high? I would have thought (based on sticking my finger in the air) it would be around 35-40% that we'd touch it. I guess back in 1992 when the market was at ~1,500 no one would have thought it would get to 6,800 in 15 years. Who knows? Fifteen years is so far away. I sure as hell hope the banks aren't 3x bigger.


----------



## craft (4 January 2015)

McLovin said:


> You reckon it's that high? I would have thought (based on sticking my finger in the air) it would be around 35-40% that we'd touch it. I guess back in 1992 when the market was at ~1,500 no one would have thought it would get to 6,800 in 15 years. Who knows? Fifteen years is so far away. I sure as hell hope the banks aren't 3x bigger.




For it not to get there, something has to be different this time - that's not usually a good bet.




XAO daily close since dollar float.




XAO Historical monthly close


----------



## McLovin (4 January 2015)

craft said:


> For it not to get there, something has to be different this time - that's not usually a good bet.
> 
> View attachment 60981
> 
> ...




They are very interesting, thanks for posting. What do the upper and lower bounds of that trend line represent?


----------



## craft (4 January 2015)

McLovin said:


> They are very interesting, thanks for posting. What do the upper and lower bounds of that trend line represent?



 Nothing - just a channel that covers the majority of the data points.


For me the real question is not if we make 17,000 but what 17,000 means in real terms.


----------



## Ariyahn2011 (4 January 2015)

Because I have become fanatical about this stuff. Reading "Stock Market for Dummies"


----------



## McLovin (4 January 2015)

craft said:


> For me the real question is not if we make 17,000 but what 17,000 means in real terms.




True. Inflation does equities no favours. I like when the march is slow and steady. It means fewer decisions than when prices are steaming ahead.




craft said:


> Jet lag sucks - why are you still up?




Yikes, i just saw the time. 

Over and out.


----------



## UMike (5 January 2015)

Julia said:


> Of course it's possible.  Anything is possible, including a fall to 3000.
> A realist would ask "is it likely"?
> 
> If anyone would like to engage with me in a* bet of $100 *that we will reach 17000 in the next decade, let me know.  I'd be very happy to pay up if it occurred.



That'd probably buy 2 beers by then!


----------



## rimtas (5 January 2015)

17.000 is uneven number. Lets round up things to 40.000 in two decades before major correction kicks in.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24462&p=849818&viewfull=1#post849818


----------



## Julia (5 January 2015)

UMike said:


> That'd probably buy 2 beers by then!



Fair enough.  Name your sum.


----------



## Bill M (7 January 2015)

Bill M said:


> Does anyone want to have a punt on where the XAO will end up by 31/12/2015?
> 
> I'm going first, I think the XAO will run up to 5,931 by the end of 2015. What do you all think?




Does anyone else want to have a go, just for a bit of fun? skc picked the closest last year, well done

Come on, throw in a number.


----------



## McLovin (7 January 2015)

6,200.


----------



## Logique (7 January 2015)

I'm not copying you Bill M., but I actually think XAO at 5,900 will be about right by 31 Dec 2015


----------



## KnowThePast (7 January 2015)

I'll go with 5,700.


----------



## skc (7 January 2015)

Bill M said:


> Does anyone else want to have a go, just for a bit of fun? skc picked the closest last year, well done
> 
> Come on, throw in a number.




Really? I won?




For this year, I am picking XAO to finish at 4533, with a low of 4182.


----------



## notting (7 January 2015)

skc said:


> Really? I won?
> 
> View attachment 61023
> 
> ...




Hey SKC do you have a story? Guess BHP will have to get hammered a fair bit more and a bad year for banks, cause TLS will be strong.  Debt funding issues because of oil countries defaulting?


----------



## Bill M (8 January 2015)

skc said:


> Really? I won?
> 
> For this year, I am picking XAO to finish at 4533, with a low of 4182.




Yeah you did, you came closest. Gee I hope you are wrong about the 4533 level. I'll end up having to change the title to "ALL ORDS went nowhere for 10 years" Yipes


----------



## shouldaindex (8 January 2015)

I'm looking for a bottom in the 4500s in the second half of the year.


----------



## BeanJumbler (26 February 2015)

Woah, two very bearish calls in the 4000s! Care to explain a little?


----------



## craft (30 June 2015)

All Ords made its entire gains for this financial year since open this morning. 

Excluding dividends and Ignoring Currency devaluation and Inflation _of course_.


----------



## skc (30 June 2015)

craft said:


> All Ords made its entire gains for this financial year since open this morning.
> 
> Excluding dividends and Ignoring Currency devaluation and Inflation _of course_.




Apparently this guy is to blame.

http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...r-adam-cheng-says-stock-market-influence-just


----------



## skyQuake (30 June 2015)

craft said:


> All Ords made its entire gains for this financial year since open this morning.
> 
> Excluding dividends and Ignoring Currency devaluation and Inflation _of course_.




Sell on july 1st and go away, rebuy open of june 30. Nice new strat

XJO looks very similar as well


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2015)

Another year has come to an end and the All Ords has closed at 5,344 points, down 44 points or .8% from this time last year. 

The XAO first reached 5,344 way back on 26th. of November 2006. This means the *All Ords has now gone nowhere for 9 years and 1 Month.*

The Santa Clause rally failed to appear and if it wasn't for the last 8 sessions before today we would be hovering around the 4,920 level.

Out of the 8 people that had a guess of where the XAO would end up, Burglar came the closest with his guess of 5,555, well done.

Where to from here? Anybody want to share their thought's?

Cheers for tonight anyway, Bill.


----------



## systematic (31 December 2015)

Bill M said:


> Where to from here? Anybody want to share their thought's?





...I'll always have a crack at anything like this (forecasting being against my investing philosophy be damned).

My wussy answer is that it finishes 2016 still in the 5000's.  My punt is simply that it won't go backwards too far, will probably rise a bit...but it wont be a gangbuster year >20%.  My punt for Dec 31, 2016 is 5885.  

Happy New Year!


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (31 December 2015)

I feel 2016 going to be similar to last 6months of 2015 and end the year about 5500, very choppy

Just doesnt appear to be any confidence in the markets, people would question whether to buy and just sit on sidelines,


----------



## So_Cynical (1 January 2016)

Bill M said:


> Another year has come to an end and the All Ords has closed at 5,344 points, down 44 points or .8% from this time last year.
> 
> Where to from here? Anybody want to share their thought's?




I think i don't care where the index is, my IB account is up 36% over the last 18 months and my main portfolio is up 31.5% over the same period...i can only hope that 2016 is as good to me as 2015 was.


----------



## Triathlete (1 January 2016)

I do not think it really matters where the market goes but it does depend on your strategies that you use for your portfolio as to whether you can increase the value of or not.

Again your knowledge and skill level will have a bearing on this...personally the last 18 months have been good to me.


View attachment My Portfolio Lincoln 2016.docx


----------



## shouldaindex (1 January 2016)

Single digit moves have been typically an unlikely outcome in any given year, with only about 28% of yearly moves since 1900 having been between the ranges of -9 to +9%.

This makes the last 2 years an anomoly moving less than 1% in consecutive years:

2013 - 5353
2014 - 5389
2015 - 5344

No idea what will happen in 2016, but I've been holding a lump sum out since 2013 to get in on the other side of the cycle, which I think we'll see the bottom of by 2018.

US CAPE has been the dealbreaker for me, along with the things associated with it.

*Also here's an illustration of the All-Ords, showing about a 50 / 50 split in the past 100 years of the ASX 'going somewhere' and the ASX 'going nowhere':*


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2016)

shouldaindex said:


> No idea what will happen in 2016, but I've been holding a lump sum out since 2013 to get in on the other side of the cycle, which I think we'll see the bottom of by 2018.




Thanks for the interesting chart you posted. I had a bit of difficulty reading the fine print but I got the message. So you think the market will bottom out in 2018, how do you know this? What action will you take this year if the market goes up quietly towards 6,000 by year end? Would you deploy that cash?

I think we are seeing good value now and seeing the all ords has gone nowhere for 9 years I reckon we might be in for a surprise upwards.

I think the XAO will go up and my guess for where it will end up at year end is 5931, anyone else want to have a guess just for fun? Burglar, where are you? You were closest last year.


----------



## Triathlete (3 January 2016)

Bill M said:


> Thanks for the interesting chart you posted. I had a bit of difficulty reading the fine print but I got the message. So you think the market will bottom out in 2018, how do you know this? What action will you take this year if the market goes up quietly towards 6,000 by year end? Would you deploy that cash?
> 
> I think we are seeing good value now and seeing the all ords has gone nowhere for 9 years I reckon we might be in for a surprise upwards.
> 
> I think the XAO will go up and my guess for where it will end up at year end is 5931, anyone else want to have a guess just for fun? Burglar, where are you? You were closest last year.




You may want to take a look at Market Cycles theory to understand about where the market might be headed into the future

A good  book to start with is

Merriman on market cycles...the basics
by Raymond A.Merriman 
60 pages


----------



## shouldaindex (3 January 2016)

The contradiction for me is that I don't believe in market timing, yet I spend most of my spare time analysing it.

But that has to do as much with asset allocation as anything.  I'm already considered overweight in ASX equities due to my asset allocation in Industry Super (I've set and forget it 100% on ASX equities until forever).

So with my lump sum cash, basically I'm not adding to that asset unless it's on my terms, and if that doesn't happen, I'm happy with my asset allocation as is.


----------



## Bill M (4 January 2016)

shouldaindex said:


> The contradiction for me is that I don't believe in market timing, yet I spend most of my spare time analysing it.
> 
> But that has to do as much with asset allocation as anything.  I'm already considered overweight in ASX equities due to my asset allocation in Industry Super (I've set and forget it 100% on ASX equities until forever).
> 
> So with my lump sum cash, basically I'm not adding to that asset unless it's on my terms, and if that doesn't happen, I'm happy with my asset allocation as is.




Well done and thanks for an honest reply.

Over a lifetime of investing I've heard it all and one of the worst was around March 2009 when our market was down around 55%. Some high profile Financial Guru was on TV getting interviewed and he said something along the lines of "sell everything, get out now and save what little you have left".  That ended up being the most stupidest advice I ever heard and exactly at the wrong time. 6 Months later the market was up 30%.

Your super being in 100% ASX equities forever, at these prices I reckon you will do well. At worst you are dollar cost averaging in at cheap prices and at best you will make some very decent $$$$$ in the future when the tide turns and in the mean time picking up dividends for your troubles. Good Luck.


----------



## So_Cynical (4 January 2016)

shouldaindex said:


> The contradiction for me is that I don't believe in market timing, yet I spend most of my spare time analysing it.




What one believes is what one believes, the world carries on, markets reward those that can see and allocate capital into yet to be realised potential and punishes those who cannot...Tech used to talk about finding an edge - an advantage, often that advantage is simply doing what everybody else isn't doing.


----------



## Bill M (7 January 2016)

Anyone else want to have a stab at where the All Ords might end up by year end? Just for fun.

So far we have:

Systematic        5885
Toyota Lexcen   5500
Bill M                5931


----------



## skc (7 January 2016)

Bill M said:


> The Santa Clause rally failed to appear and if it wasn't for the last 8 sessions before today we would be hovering around the 4,920 level.
> 
> Out of the 8 people that had a guess of where the XAO would end up, Burglar came the closest with his guess of 5,555, well done.




My guess of 4533 was looking pretty good until the Santa run. Oh well.



Bill M said:


> Anyone else want to have a stab at where the All Ords might end up by year end? Just for fun.
> 
> So far we have:
> 
> ...




My guess is a double digit fall... so say mid point of 12-15% makes it 4700. Make it *4682 *so the guess appears to have even more false precision.


----------



## AlterEgo (7 January 2016)

5683


----------



## UMike (7 January 2016)

Bill M said:


> Anyone else want to have a stab at where the All Ords might end up by year end? Just for fun.
> 
> So far we have:
> 
> ...



Bloody 'ell. A good months end prediction would do me.


*5345* a flat year would be nice after the last 4 days.


----------



## poverty (8 January 2016)

If you asked me 2 weeks ago I would've said 5800.  

5200 is my current guesstimate.


----------



## shouldaindex (8 January 2016)

Forecasters generally predict the same for next year as the previous year.

So do betting companies for the next football season.

Just a human bias to be aware of.


----------



## shouldaindex (8 January 2016)

Doing comparisons of 4 major markets in various time periods:

*Since 2000 best returns:*

1. All Ordinaries
2. Hang Seng
3. S&P 500
4. FTSE

*Since 2009 best returns:*

1. S&P500
2. All Ordinaries
3. FTSE
4. Hang Seng

*Past 12 months best returns:*

1. All Ordinaries
2. S&P 500
3. FTSE
4. Hang Seng

*2016 so far best returns:*

1. All Ordinaries
2. FTSE
3. S&P 500
4. Hang Seng


----------



## Bill M (8 January 2016)

poverty said:


> If you asked me 2 weeks ago I would've said 5800.
> 
> 5200 is my current guesstimate.




I know what you mean. I'm surprised today, I thought we'd get whacked but the 5,000 level is still holding.



shouldaindex said:


> Forecasters generally predict the same for next year as the previous year.
> 
> So do betting companies for the next football season.
> 
> Just a human bias to be aware of.




Last year you picked 4500............ not going to have a go this year?


----------



## shouldaindex (8 January 2016)

I'm not good at specific timeframes, so my other thread is about reaching that sort of level by 2018.


----------



## Logique (8 January 2016)

Bill M said:


> Anyone else want to have a stab at where the All Ords might end up by year end? Just for fun.
> So far we have:
> Systematic        5885
> Toyota Lexcen   5500
> Bill M                5931



I'll go with 5400, as a low confidence prediction. Bill, how about a summary in Dec 2016, it would be interesting to see where it finishes.


----------



## Junior (8 January 2016)

Banks/miners/supermarkets to continue to hold the index back.  Small/mid-caps to outperform again.

Index at 4,850 at year end.


----------



## Bill M (8 January 2016)

Logique said:


> I'll go with 5400, as a low confidence prediction. Bill, how about a summary in Dec 2016, it would be interesting to see where it finishes.




Yep, no worries. 2015 year end guesses were:

shouldaindex    4500
skc                  4533
*burglar        5555 (winner, came the closest) *
knowthepast     5700
triathlete          5840
Logique           5900
Bill M               5931
McLovin           6200

Will definitely do a summary at year end 2016, cheers.


----------



## Triathlete (8 January 2016)

Put me in for 5550 thanks


----------



## cynic (8 January 2016)

The number 3900, it's  just the "vibe" of it ya know?


----------



## shouldaindex (9 January 2016)

This is a great thread Bill, it's captured the full cycle sentiment perfectly since 2011 for the ASX, starting with despair (as the title suggests and the thread starting within a few % of the market bottom) and working through the various stages since:

http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Stages-for-AAPL.png

It made about 60% in ASX total returns in 3.5 years from October 2011 - April 2015 on the ascend up.

Unfortunately my strong opinion is that it looks like we've been subtly moving through the blow off phase for the past 9 months and going to fulfil the cycle in the next year or two.

My shorthanded estimates are a 4500-4700 bottom (20-25% drawdown) without a Major Recession / Financial Crisis.  But if one did eventuate then I'd reassess and bring the 4200 mark (30% drawdown) into play and go from there.


----------



## Bill M (9 January 2016)

cynic said:


> The number 3900, it's  just the "vibe" of it ya know?




Welcome back, so ya gave up using them coffee beans? Then ya had a year off (no guess last year) and now your back with the "vibe". The way things are going, you might just nail it. Man that's going to wipe out a lot of Mums and Dads and their super.

I use the "tummy rumblings" method myself but I have been wrong so often I'm going to visit the Doctor and get a checkup. Cheers mate!


----------



## Bill M (9 January 2016)

shouldaindex said:


> This is a great thread Bill, it's captured the full cycle sentiment perfectly since 2011 for the ASX, starting with despair (as the title suggests and the thread starting within a few % of the market bottom) and working through the various stages since:
> 
> http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Stages-for-AAPL.png
> 
> ...




I like that chart in the link. We are in the blow off phase but where exactly I don't know and how long it will last is something else I don't know. How low will it go? I would love to pick that bottom of the V but it's near on impossible. News filters through to the Mums and Dads through the media, by the time they check their super online it is too late. When my neighbour starts complaining that his super has gone backwards and that it isn't worth investing in it, then it may be at the bottom of the V. Thanks, I like reading your posts.


----------



## qldfrog (9 January 2016)

Bill M said:


> I like that chart in the link.



Indeed!!!


----------



## skcots (9 January 2016)

I am going with 4726.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 January 2016)

My thoughts are that we get a rally starting sometime soon and ending by the end of April. Not straight up for 3 months, but higher then than we are now. After that's done, then we go down properly.

I'm also thinking we're in for a broader downturn during the year. Commodities slump, floods or drought messing with agriculture practically everywhere, ASX wobbly, housing wobbly, a high profile business failure (Dick Smith). All little things adding up that isn't going to do consumer confidence much good. Not necessarily enough to put us in recession, but we'll see a lot of concerns about that I think.

No specific prediction for the All Ords from me, but I'm thinking up a bit then down more than it went up.

For the AUD my thoughts are that we end the year at about 60 cents.


----------



## shouldaindex (9 January 2016)

One of the most difficult things is deciding what to do when the -20% bear market is hit:

Hit -20% and NO Recession or Global Financial Crisis following: The last 5 times has resulted in an average of +22% in the next 12 months.

Hit -20% and A Recession or Global Financial Crisis follows: The last time resulted in -26% in the next 12 months.

That's basically a 50% bet on a binary outcome, wowee.


----------



## cynic (9 January 2016)

Bill M said:


> Welcome back, so ya gave up using them coffee beans? Then ya had a year off (no guess last year) and now your back with the "vibe". The way things are going, you might just nail it. Man that's going to wipe out a lot of Mums and Dads and their super.
> 
> I use the "tummy rumblings" method myself but I have been wrong so often I'm going to visit the Doctor and get a checkup. Cheers mate!




Yep! The supermarket sold me a dud. I guess that's what happens when you buy plain label coffee. From the sound of your tummy rumblings it seems that you might have copped a bad batch as well. Still, I  can always use E Z answer squirrel as my avenue of last resort.


----------



## Bill M (30 December 2016)

Good Evening and welcome to the year end wrap up of the XAO.

The XAO closed today at 5719 up 7% for the year (or 375 points).

The XAO first hit this level on January 24th. 2007. *So our market has gone nowhere for 9 years and 11 Months.* We were just short of 10 years of no movement. It doesn't look that good but the dividends along the way with their franking credits certainly helped.

We had several members take a punt on where the markets might end up, here is their Dec 30th. 2016 year end picks with the lowest predictions first.

*cynic              3900 most bearish pick*
skc                 4682
shouldanindex 4700
skcots             4726
junior              4850
poverty           5200
umike             5345
logique            5400
*toyota lexcen   5500  Came equal 3rd. with triathlete
triathlete         5550  Came equal 3rd. with toyota lexcen
alterego          5683 Closest Pick and is the winner*
*systematic       5885  Came Second* 
bill m              5931

So how did you all go for the year? I did ok and added plenty of stock when the markets hit the 5,100 levels. I am looking at off loading a parcel at these current highs but have not done so yet.


----------



## AlterEgo (30 December 2016)

Wow, I won! Looks like that guess was very close - XAO was only at that value 2 days ago! I'm very surprised that my guess ended up being that close, as all it was based on was a linear regression line of the last several years of data extrapolated out to the end of the year.


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2016)

AlterEgo said:


> I'm very surprised that my guess ended up being that close, as all it was based on was a linear regression line of the last several years of data extrapolated out to the end of the year.



Well done mate, are you going to have a stab for 2017? I'm going to have a go and stick my neck out.

I am guessing that on 29/12/2017 the XAO will close at 6137. Anyone else?


----------



## Logique (31 December 2016)

Thanks for keeping track of that Bill, and well done AlterEgo!

To be fair, since early 2009 the XAO _has_ actually been going somewhere. 

For 2017 - I'll enter a finish at 6,500


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (31 December 2016)

yeah thanks Bill and good win AlterEgo

only rotated a few stocks around for the year, would like to take some profit if the market gets to 6000 in the new year

i enter 5,830 for 2017


----------



## dutchie (31 December 2016)

My guess is that the it will go to a high just short of 6000 and then by end of year be at 4700.


----------



## AlterEgo (31 December 2016)

Ok, I'll guess 5762


----------



## pixel (31 December 2016)

*6085 at the end of 2017*
guesstimated from non-linear trend since March 2009 as the mid-point between support @5500 and resistance @6600 with a slight upside bias and assuming that Trump stuff-ups won't become apparent to mainstream US until later in 2018.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (31 December 2016)

Sell high and buy low is still the best advice. It matters not whether the XAO is at 4000 or 6000. And hold shares that give a good franked divi when the XAO is at 5000. Who can predict the future? Not even Croesus.


----------



## Bill M (1 January 2017)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sell high and buy low is still the best advice. It matters not whether the XAO is at 4000 or 6000. And hold shares that give a good franked divi when the XAO is at 5000. Who can predict the future? Not even Croesus.



Hi GG, good to see you around. Yeah I like your post and I try to do just that. I don't bother with individual stocks anymore, I don't have too. I buy ETF's that represent the Australian market and they pay very good distributions. So where the XAO is trading is quite important to me. I use certain levels that I consider good value. At the 5100 level it was good value and I accumulated 3 different ETF's. However at the 6000 level I am thinking about offloading a little and squirreling off some cash for the next dip. This of course will give me some tax free capital gains within my Super pension as well. All the best for the new year, cheers.


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2017)

So, anybody else willing to take a guess at where the XAO will finish by the last day of trading in 2017?

So far we have:

dutchie 4700
alterego 5762
toyota lexcen 5830
pixel 6085
bill m 6137
logique 6500

It's all for a bit of fun, no money involved. It will be interesting to see how the year plays out, cheers.


----------



## Triathlete (2 January 2017)

Bill M said:


> So, anybody else willing to take a guess at where the XAO will finish by the last day of trading in 2017?
> 
> So far we have:
> 
> ...




I will take 5950.


----------



## tinhat (2 January 2017)

6555


----------



## So_Cynical (2 January 2017)

Bill M said:


> Good Evening and welcome to the year end wrap up of the XAO.
> 
> The XAO closed today at 5719 up 7% for the year (or 375 points).
> 
> So how did you all go for the year? I did ok and added plenty of stock when the markets hit the 5,100 levels. I am looking at off loading a parcel at these current highs but have not done so yet.




I have achieved a few personal milestones, income at a record high both markets and job, record largest tax bill ever and another first the ATO want me to start paying PAYG advance payments, obviously they expect me to have yet another bumper year.
~


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2017)

So_Cynical said:


> I have achieved a few personal milestones, income at a record high both markets and job, record largest tax bill ever and another first the ATO want me to start paying PAYG advance payments, obviously they expect me to have yet another bumper year.
> ~



Great news, sorry about the tax though, ouch! You going to have a go at picking the XAO level for year end?


----------



## So_Cynical (3 January 2017)

Bill M said:


> Great news, sorry about the tax though, ouch! You going to have a go at picking the XAO level for year end?




OK 5760 a flat year


----------



## Logique (3 January 2017)

Interesting article, I'll add an image, once I figure how to do that with the new forum software. The image button only ask for a URL.


> The big investment questions for 2017
> By Patrick Commins - 2 Jan 2017
> SMH: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-big-investment-questions-for-2017-20170102-gtkwq7.html


----------



## Logique (3 January 2017)

Logique said:


> I'll add an image, once I figure how to do that



Here tis, sourced from: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-big-investment-questions-for-2017-20170102-gtkwq7.html   - various 2017 predictions


----------



## systematic (3 January 2017)

6341


----------



## Logique (3 January 2017)

systematic said:


> 6341



At 10:15am - off the the tribunal with you!


----------



## Bill M (4 January 2017)

Here is this years picks as to where you think the XAO may finish up for 2017.

dutchie 4700
so_cynical 5760
alterego 5762
toyota lexcen 5830
triathlete 5950
pixel 6085
bill m 6137
systematic 6341
logique 6500
tinhat 6555

Good luck and I hope you all do well.


----------



## systematic (6 January 2017)

Logique said:


> At 10:15am - off the the tribunal with you!




ha, i've had a few slow starts this week, after last week's festivities


----------



## UMike (8 January 2017)

You can add a ???? for me.

Sold alot near the end of last year.
Will probably sell some ANZ and WBC this week and have the finger on the button for selling some TLS.

Alot will hinge on "THE DONALD"


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 January 2017)

Came across this which aligns with my own thinking pretty well. Australia isn't in a good situation right now. We seem to be doing considerably worse than, say, the US and there's a lack of anything likely to give our economy a boost.

Housing's tapped out. Not likely to have another commodity price boom from this point. Can't really have a commodity volume boom without investment that isn't happening. Weather has been reasonable for agriculture so can't really get much better. Etc.

http://www.primefinancial.com.au/a-look-into-2017-for-australian-investors-december-2016/

Thoughts? Am I being to bearish in my thinking here?


----------



## Bill M (29 December 2017)

Good evening all, here is the year end wrap up for the All Ords.

The XAO closed today at 6167 which was up 7.3% for the year. (Up 418 points)

The XAO first hit this level in April 2007. 
*
So now our markets have gone no where for 10 years and 8 Months.
*
We had several members take a punt on where they thought the XAO would end up at the end of the year. *AND THE WINNER IS ME!! (lucky I guess)*

dutchie 4700 Lowest guess
so_cynical 5760
alterego 5762
toyota lexcen 5830
triathlete 5950
pixel 6085 second best pick
bill m 6137 Winner
systematic 6341
logique 6500
tinhat 6555

7% in growth and 5% in dividends just buying the market is not a bad result. I continue to hold high dividend yield ETF's in my portfolio. How is everyone else going? Cheers.


----------



## Logique (30 December 2017)

Well done Bill and Pixel. 
Our group was more bullish than the big brokerage houses in the SMH article, and we were right.  7% + 5% is a good outcome for the Aus market.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (30 December 2017)

congratulations Bill M,

be interesting the predictions for next year

over 10years your capital gone nowhere, terrible investment


----------



## Bill M (30 December 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> over 10years your capital gone nowhere, terrible investment



Yes it is but I keep telling myself that the XAO always gets to and surpasses previous highs. I'm just wondering how old I will be when that happens!!


----------



## sptrawler (30 December 2017)

Bill M said:


> 7% in growth and 5% in dividends just buying the market is not a bad result. I continue to hold high dividend yield ETF's in my portfolio. How is everyone else going? Cheers.




I'm tending to move toward ETF's and LIC's, as a larger component of my SMSF, aiming at approx 20- 25%. 
I tend to think the index has to move up, as mining recovers and the population boost, kicks in.
Picking winners, will become harder IMO, as the unknown effect of technology is felt by different sectors.
So I'm thinking, with requiring a steady income stream, i'll leave some of the research to the professionals.
But after six years of pulling a reasonable pension, I still have more than what I started with, so life's good.
As long as the health holds up.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (30 December 2017)

same here sptrawler, 

international and domestic


----------



## Bill M (30 December 2017)

sptrawler said:


> I'm tending to move toward ETF's and LIC's, as a larger component of my SMSF, aiming at approx 20- 25%.




Just out of curiosity, what is your favourite LIC? I use the ETF, VHY mostly and I have been very happy with it.


----------



## luutzu (30 December 2017)

Bill M said:


> Yes it is but I keep telling myself that the XAO always gets to and surpasses previous highs. I'm just wondering how old I will be when that happens!!




Might be sooner than we think. Trump's (under)estimated $1.5Trillion in tax cuts to corporations and "job creators" will most likely lit a few rockets under the stock markets (and other financial assets). 

So 2018, 2019 might be very good years. Then we might wake up to the reality that there's only so much value share buybacks can do for a business. That and unless the world's property markets does a GFC 2.0 and ruin everything.


----------



## sptrawler (30 December 2017)

Bill M said:


> Just out of curiosity, what is your favourite LIC? I use the ETF, VHY mostly and I have been very happy with it.




I looked at only well established LIC's with a track record, can't afford a catastophe, at this point of my life.
So being conservative, narrowed it down to AFI, MLT and ARG, then I just looked at what they were holding and worked out their dividend/price, I settled on MLT at about $4.58.
Having said that, I will be buying more LIC's/ETF's, to reach that 20-25% level
I'm guessing with the new Caps, a lot of SMSF are going to have to align themselves with the index to some degree, there isn't as much wriggle room with a cap.
Especially when you have a minimum draw down, that increases over time, a margin of safety will be required. IMO


----------



## Logique (31 December 2017)

For Calendar Year 2018, my XAO prediction is:  6,450


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2017)

Logique said:


> For Calendar Year 2018, my XAO prediction is:  6,450




Good idea, lets throw our hat in the ring and try and predict where the XAO will be at the end of 2018.

I go for 6341


----------



## systematic (31 December 2017)

Bill M said:


> dutchie 4700 Lowest guess
> so_cynical 5760
> alterego 5762
> toyota lexcen 5830
> ...




Well done Bill M!!


----------



## peter2 (31 December 2017)

I'll say 6766. 
Commodities will edge higher, the banks will gain 10% once the royal comm is over and we're reminded that they're the best in the world. CBA will pay 20M in fines, pre-emptively raise interest rates,  pay the new CEO more than the last one and still announce another record profit. 

China along with NKorea will "own" more than 51% of the crypto currency network and therefore control it. Many cryptos will disappear overnight, but be replaced immediately by another. They''ll morph, fork and spoon into others so fast the traders won't see their cash disappear. Expect it to end up in NK.

I think ASF needs an outrageous predictions thread.


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2017)

systematic said:


> Well done Bill M!!



So you taking another punt? I took yours from last year 6341, not because you had it, it's like a premonition or something. Just can't shake it.


----------



## systematic (31 December 2017)

Bill M said:


> Good idea, lets throw our hat in the ring and try and predict where the XAO will be at the end of 2018.
> 
> I go for 6341




Absolutely - hope everyone has a crack at this one as well as the annual tipping comp!  Even if one is neither a market timer or forecaster (i.e. me!) one should always be ready for a punt, IMO 

I'll take...

*7,190*


----------



## sptrawler (1 January 2018)

I think the RBA is gaging, to increase interest rates, as soon as they do, the swing from stocks to deposits will happen.
So I will go for 6,750


----------



## PZ99 (1 January 2018)

systematic said:


> Absolutely - hope everyone has a crack at this one as well as the annual tipping comp!  Even if one is neither a market timer or forecaster (i.e. me!) one should always be ready for a punt, IMO
> 
> I'll take...
> 
> *7,190*




Might as well have a go - *6100* ✓


----------



## Bill M (1 January 2018)

Lets keep this going, anyone else want to have a crack at where the All Ords will finish at year end 2018? I'll do the list and keep tabs on everything.

The funny thing is I remember someone saying way back 6 years ago something like "the way the economy is going next year it will be 8 years that the XAO has gone no where." Back then not even in my wildest imagination did I think it would take 10 years + and we still haven't passed our previous high. Surely that can't be that far away. Just for the record, I think of the top of my head the DOW has quadrupled during the same time. OMG!


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (1 January 2018)

6535 please Bill M


----------



## systematic (1 January 2018)

The accumulated indices are at all time highs though.  Mind you, even that translates to only ~3.5% CAGR for over the last 10 years since the previous peak (for the ASX300 accumulated) - which is obviously all dividends.


----------



## Logique (2 January 2018)

I'm not sure which prediction rattles me the most:

PZ99 - 6100 (i.e. going nowhere in 2018), or

Systematic - 7190 (adding 1000 points)

Both proven tipsters. It's certainly going to be intriguing..


----------



## PZ99 (2 January 2018)

Good article here on the subject...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-02/asx200-in-2018/9271032


----------



## Cam019 (2 January 2018)

6810 for me. Thanks @Bill M.


----------



## kid hustlr (2 January 2018)

A lot of cautious bulls in here.

I'll say 6100. Push higher then sell in May and go away and we'll back where we started


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2018)

PZ99 said:


> Good article here on the subject...
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-02/asx200-in-2018/9271032



Interesting, only one predicting a loss for the year.

Anyone else want to have a go?


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2018)

OK, here is the line up so far. If anyone else wants a go, please give me you number now, thanks.

PZ99              6100
kid hustlr        6100
Bill M              6341
Logique          6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler        6750
Peter 2           6766
Cam019         6810
systematic     7190


----------



## kid hustlr (3 January 2018)

Eek - I didnt' realise I had the same number as PZ99 (great minds!) Happy to change mine to an even 6000 if that makes it easier?

Alternative I could go to 6101 like they used to on "the Price is Right".

6000 will be fine


----------



## Logique (3 January 2018)

PZ99 said:


> Good article here on the subject...
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-02/asx200-in-2018/9271032



Thanks, yes that is a good read


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> Eek - I didnt' realise I had the same number as PZ99 (great minds!) Happy to change mine to an even 6000 if that makes it easier?
> 
> Alternative I could go to 6101 like they used to on "the Price is Right".
> 
> 6000 will be fine




That's all good, here's the line up:


kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
Cam019 6810
systematic 7190


----------



## Logique (3 January 2018)

Calculated an average prediction for interest sake = 6549


----------



## So_Cynical (4 January 2018)

Bill M said:


> I continue to hold high dividend yield ETF's in my portfolio. How is everyone else going? Cheers.




Killing it - Just in the last 13 weeks my main portfolio is up 24.9% new all time highs week after week ~ the small and mid cap stocks have done much better than the ASX100, my portfolio is heavy the smaller stocks, 7 years of my buy and build strategy of leaving in profits and cycling cash is now really starting to pay off.


----------



## tinhat (5 January 2018)

6780


----------



## dutchie (6 January 2018)

I won't embarrass myself again after my last effort.


----------



## Bill M (6 January 2018)

tinhat said:


> 6780



That's all good, added:

kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Cam019 6810
systematic 7190

Anyone else? Come on dutchie, cost ya nothing.


----------



## dutchie (6 January 2018)

Bill M said:


> That's all good, added:
> 
> kid hustlr 6000
> PZ99 6100
> ...




ok , as long as it's costing nothing I'm going for 6420


----------



## InsvestoBoy (6 January 2018)

I used some data from FRED to do a crude valuation analysis (the data I used can be found here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hlWx).

I used two timeseries:
1. Total Share Prices for All Shares for Australia (a)
2. Total Gross Domestic Product for Australia (b)

and produced a third timeseries which is "a divided by b", the ratio between share market price and GDP as the valuation indicator.

Then I downloaded the data as a spreadsheet and calculated the future 10 year return at each point on the ratio. You can see that there is a pretty obvious and distinct valuation relationship even using such a crude measure.

When the ratio is high, the future 10 year return is generally low.
When the ratio is low, the future 10 year return is generally high.

There is a cluster of unexpected values where the ratio is low and the 10 year return is also low (circled), but I am guessing this is because the share price timeseries doesn't account for dividends and due to the general crudeness of the valuation indicator. Despite that, you can see there are *no* cases of really great long term returns unless the ratio is lower than 0.5.

But in general, when you look at the long term returns through this lens, you can see why the returns have been so stagnant, from the end of 2005 until mid 2008 the ratio was above 1 and we can conclude that the returns from 2015 until mid 2018 will therefore not be great.




For what it's worth, the ratio today is a bit greater than 1 so I would probably expect returns for the next 10 years to match the kind of low returns systematic mentioned in his post again.


----------



## Bill M (6 January 2018)

dutchie said:


> ok , as long as it's costing nothing I'm going for 6420



Thanks mate, added.

kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Cam019 6810
systematic 7190


----------



## So_Cynical (6 January 2018)

Bill M said:


> Thanks mate, added.
> 
> kid hustlr 6000
> PZ99 6100
> ...




Ill go 5950...Trump is an idiot after all.


----------



## Bill M (7 January 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Ill go 5950...Trump is an idiot after all.



Thanks, added.

So_Cynical 5950
kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Cam019 6810
systematic 7190


----------



## Logique (7 January 2018)

On current indications I wouldn't bet against the ASF tipsters, but then 12 months is a long time in markets. And in politics, the President has plenty of political enemies, but he is great for US markets.  
How bad was 2008, but silver lining, it was followed by a 10yr recovery


----------



## dutchie (7 January 2018)

Commonwealth Bank predicts 6200-6400 at end of 2018.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (7 January 2018)

I'm going to go against the consensus and say 3000.


----------



## Trendnomics (7 January 2018)

7800 - too many perma-bears on these forums.


----------



## Bill M (7 January 2018)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I'm going to go against the consensus and say 3000.






Trendnomics said:


> 7800 - too many perma-bears on these forums.




Thanks guys, added.

InsvestoBoy 3000
So_Cynical 5950
kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Cam019 6810
systematic 7190
Trendnomics 7800


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 January 2018)

6800 as old ATH becomes resistance for awhile.


----------



## Bill M (7 January 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> 6800 as old ATH becomes resistance for awhile.



Thanks, added.

InsvestoBoy 3000
So_Cynical 5950
kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Wysiwyg 6800
Cam019 6810
systematic 7190
Trendnomics 7800


----------



## Bill M (7 January 2018)

I am going to put in a closing time of 10 AM Tuesday the 9th of January to get your entries in. When the stock market opens that is. AEDST.

Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts and look at all the different thoughts people have. Ranges from 3000 to 7800, very interesting.

Still got time to put your entries in if anyone's interested. Thanks everyone.


----------



## Value Hunter (8 January 2018)

I will put 7000 as my guess.


----------



## Bill M (8 January 2018)

Value Hunter said:


> I will put 7000 as my guess.



Thanks, added.

InsvestoBoy 3000
So_Cynical 5950
kid hustlr 6000
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Wysiwyg 6800
Cam019 6810
Value Hunter 7000
systematic 7190
Trendnomics 7800


----------



## So_Cynical (8 January 2018)

Logique said:


> On current indications I wouldn't bet against the ASF tipsters, but then 12 months is a long time in markets. And in politics, the President has plenty of political enemies, but he is great for US markets.
> How bad was 2008, but silver lining, it was followed by a 10yr recovery
> View attachment 85537




A ten year recovery that was pump primed, the perfect set of numbers to encourage it.


----------



## Logique (14 November 2018)

Bill M said:


> Thanks, added.
> InsvestoBoy 3000
> *So_Cynical 5950
> kid hustlr 6000
> ...



Looks a race in three, the rest of us would need Santa Claus to visit!


----------



## bigdog (14 November 2018)




----------



## systematic (14 November 2018)

Logique said:


> Looks a race in three, the rest of us would need Santa Claus to visit!




I need a 20% rally in the next 6 weeks!


----------



## Struzball (14 November 2018)

bigdog said:


> View attachment 90295



Still a bit more to go to reach last months low.


----------



## Logique (21 November 2018)

We're heading sub 5700 at the open, and that's near enough to a 2 year low!


----------



## Logique (27 December 2018)

XAO Prediction Dec 2019: 
6500


----------



## Lenny36 (27 December 2018)

Here is an article which says why the All Ords is below what it was before the global financial crisis.  Its because of all the price rigging!

https://independentaustralia.net/po...the-unspoken-crimes-of-the-asx---part-4,12191


----------



## MrChow (27 December 2018)

GFC High 6843 with PE 14
Current 5650 with PE 15

Doesn't seem much difference for the rigging of the century.


----------



## Lenny36 (27 December 2018)

MrChow said:


> GFC High 6843 with PE 14
> Current 5650 with PE 15
> 
> Doesn't seem much difference for the rigging of the century.



If your PE’s are correct then I would say it is because of the vicious circle - less profits coming to people from the stockmarket= less taxes for the government to spend= less profits for the companies that rely on government and consumer spending. Wealth is being stripped no doubt about that.


----------



## MrChow (27 December 2018)

Respect your opinion welcome to the site.


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2018)

Good evening all, here is the 2018 year end wrap up for the All Ords.

The XAO closed today at 5709  which was *down 7.4%* for the year. (Down 458 points)

*The XAO first hit this level back on January 22nd. 2007*
*
So the XAO has gone nowhere for nearly 12 years. What a shocker!!
*
Several members had an educated guess/random punt of where they thought the all ords would end up and the winner is:

Drum Roll.......*So_Cynical with 5950.....*Well done mate!

Second was *kid hustlr with 6000*

And last was *InvestoBoy with 3000*

*InsvestoBoy 3000*
*So_Cynical 5950*
*kid hustlr 6000*
PZ99 6100
Bill M 6341
dutchie 6420
Logique 6450
Toyota Lexcen 6535
sptrawler 6750
Peter 2 6766
tinhat 6780
Wysiwyg 6800
Cam019 6810
Value Hunter 7000
systematic 7190
Trendnomics 7800

Dividend investors might have just broken even but this was not a good year generally for long term investors. So where to next year? It will be very interesting.

Cheers and Happy New Year!!
Bill M


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (31 December 2018)

Well done so cynical, congratulations.

Thanks Bill M.

Yes asx a dud for 12yrs. A lot of people who set up smsf/invested many years ago and have a portfolio of top 20 or top 50 holdings would be disappointed. 

A lot of these companies have become stale and need to be gobbled up.


----------



## MrChow (31 December 2018)

Title seems pretty good in comparison to:

S&P500 -80% in 13 years (1929-1942)
Nikkei -50% in 29 years (1990-2019)
Hang Seng -50% in 12 years (1972-1984)

So who knows but history shows we shouldn't discount going into the 3000s even a couple decades later.


----------



## MrChow (1 January 2019)

Longest periods it took for the ASX Total Returns to beat inflation:

1936 18 years
1960 17 years
1964 19 years
1968 17 years
1969 16 years


----------



## Bill M (1 January 2019)

MrChow said:


> Longest periods it took for the ASX Total Returns to beat inflation:
> 
> 1936 18 years
> 1960 17 years
> ...



Gee MrChow you are full of good news. Now how about you have a guess at where the XAO will finish at year end. With all those statistics you must have some thoughts.


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2019)

tinhat said:


> @joe, @Bill M you might want to split the 2019 XAO tips into a new thread and set a deadline for entries?
> 
> 
> 
> I am absolutely certain about my prediction that the XAO will reach 6780. It's the timing I'm not so sure about.




So I take it that you say 6780 by year end.

About splitting this thread, there are no prizes so I don't know if it will attract that much attention. 

I still can't believe that the All Ords stood still for 12 years. I don't know, I reckon it's got to bolt soon enough. Like you I don't know when. By the way I was just looking at the only stock I hold on it's own (apart from ETF's), NAB, it hasn't gone anywhere for 20 years. But by crikey I've pulled some good dividends over that time.


----------



## Joe Blow (2 January 2019)

tinhat said:


> @joe, @Bill M you might want to split the 2019 XAO tips into a new thread and set a deadline for entries?






Bill M said:


> About splitting this thread, there are no prizes so I don't know if it will attract that much attention.




I'm happy to split the thread if that's the preferred option. The new thread could be titled, "Yearly XAO Prediction thread" or something similar and could be used each year for participants to post their predictions. Someone would have to appoint themselves as the competition organiser and would be responsible for setting deadlines etc.

Alternatively, the predictions could all be collated into one post in this thread after the deadline for entries has passed.

If someone would like to step up and take on the role of competition organiser I'm more than happy to split the thread.


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2019)

Hi Joe, thanks for getting back to us. Maybe splitting it is a good idea as both titles probably do deserve their own headings and input. So I'm happy for you to split it. Actually I like your title, simple and straight forward. "Yearly XAO Prediction Thread". I am also happy to run it but I do not use excel and I am not a pro like a few of you guys. So if everyone doesn't mind me just collating it and putting it inline in a post then I can do it. I have been doing it on this thread for a few years now anyway.

I think a fair cut off time would be Sunday the 13th Jan at 2359 Hours EDST. It gives everyone a bit of time over that weekend and before then to get their predictions in.

Then at the end of the year I would be more than happy to post back here what the XAO did actually do and who was first, second, third and last.

It could be a good fun thread, light hearted and once all the entries are in and locked anyone through the year can come in and comment.

There are a lot of long term investors out there (like myself) who do care what the XAO does. A lot of us are in ETF's. So really which ever way the XAO does move means something to us. For others it is not so important so why not just have a punt at it?

I'm happy for it to go ahead, are there any other opinions out there?

Cheers,
Bill


----------



## tinhat (2 January 2019)

@Bill M. Sounds good. Thanks.


----------



## MrChow (2 January 2019)

Longest periods for the All Ordinaries Index to go nowhere:

1890 to 1907 - 17 years
1930 to 1944 - 14 years
1962 to 1975 - 13 years
2007 to 2019 - 12 years (not out)


----------



## PZ99 (2 January 2019)

Bill M said:


> Hi Joe, thanks for getting back to us. Maybe splitting it is a good idea as both titles probably do deserve their own headings and input. So I'm happy for you to split it. Actually I like your title, simple and straight forward. "Yearly XAO Prediction Thread". I am also happy to run it but I do not use excel and I am not a pro like a few of you guys. So if everyone doesn't mind me just collating it and putting it inline in a post then I can do it. I have been doing it on this thread for a few years now anyway.
> 
> I think a fair cut off time would be Sunday the 13th Jan at 2359 Hours EDST. It gives everyone a bit of time over that weekend and before then to get their predictions in.
> 
> ...



I'm happy to do the excel work for this one if you like - weekly or monthly updates easy.


----------



## Joe Blow (2 January 2019)

All done folks: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/yearly-xao-prediction-thread.34455/

I think I got all the entries. Let me know if I missed anything.


----------



## Darc Knight (2 January 2019)

PZ99 said:


> I'm happy to do the excel work for this one if you like - weekly or monthly updates easy.




You sober now? 6800 lol

I thought my 4800 was a bit pessimistic, somewhere low 5000s about right. But XAO down another 1.5% so far today. Smurfs 4000 might be favourite


----------



## Bill M (2 January 2019)

PZ99 said:


> I'm happy to do the excel work for this one if you like - weekly or monthly updates easy.



Great, ok then. You will only have to do one at the start and one at the end. No need to do during the year, unless you really want to. In the mean time I keep track of it, thanks.

And thanks for starting the new thread Joe.


----------



## PZ99 (2 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> You sober now? 6800 lol
> 
> I thought my 4800 was a bit pessimistic, somewhere low 5000s about right. But XAO down another 1.5% so far today. Smurfs 4000 might be favourite



I forgot to mention the 3 changes of Prime Ministers was a caveat


----------



## sptrawler (25 July 2019)

New high. 
https://thewest.com.au/business/markets/asx-cracks-6800-as-all-ords-hits-record-high-ng-b881271039z

From the article:
The Australian sharemarket has hit an all-time high after the all ordinaries broke through a record set more than 11 years ago.

The index rose 25.2 points, or 0.4 per cent, to hit 6888.4 at 9.40am.

The all ordinaries’ previous intra-day high of 6873.2 was reached on November 1, 2007.


----------



## Bill M (25 July 2019)

Wow, finally cracked it, thanks for the update.

As us old boys sit in a bar in SE/Asia drinking our beers this topic comes up often. So it took 11 years and 8 Months to pass our previous high. In the mean time the Dow Jones has almost doubled from it's 2007 highs.

Back to our $1 a beer San Miguels, then the conversation goes on to Donald Trump,  beer bar diplomats we are. Cheers all.


----------



## sptrawler (25 July 2019)

Bill M said:


> Wow, finally cracked it, thanks for the update.
> 
> As us old boys sit in a bar in SE/Asia drinking our beers this topic comes up often. So it took 11 years and 8 Months to pass our previous high. In the mean time the Dow Jones has almost doubled from it's 2007 highs.
> 
> Back to our $1 a beer San Miguels, then the conversation goes on to Donald Trump,  beer bar diplomats we are. Cheers all.



Sounds like you are having a good time Bill, $1 beers is good for the wallet, but not too good for the liver. 
The good thing about hitting a new high at this time is, the banks are still down and quite a few miners, so it might be the start of bigger and better things.
I'm ever the optimist.


----------



## willy1111 (25 July 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I'm ever the optimist.



  The election result has breathed new life into you aye


----------



## sptrawler (25 July 2019)

willy1111 said:


> The election result has breathed new life into you aye



Well let's put it this way, it would be a lot more exciting ATM, if the election had gone the other way. IMO
I just wish my stock picking, was as good as my election pick.

My post on March 15th 2018, in the Is Shorten PM material, thread:

_Actually silly billy, may well have just lost the unlosable election_.  #1023


----------



## PZ99 (1 August 2019)

ASX's big churn sees 40pc of the top 100 shares disappear since the GFC

Key points:

Of the 32 ASX 100 companies taken over since the GFC around a third ended up in foreign hands
While the GFC sparked much of the takeover activity among weakened companies, very few were bankrupted
The ASX top 10 is remarkably stable with seven remaining in place from 12 years ago and six from 100 years ago
Liquidations and takeovers saw 37 of the top 100 from November 2007 drop off the ASX boards.

The 12 years it has taken the ASX 200 to regain its pre-GFC high has seen an extraordinary churn in the big end of town, with almost 40 per cent of the largest corporates disappearing.
While credit markets seized up, threatening the existence of many heavily indebted companies, perhaps surprisingly, only three of the top 100 were bankrupted.

The vast majority of the deletions were due to takeovers, by either offshore raiders or other ASX-listed businesses.

Roughly a third of the ASX 100 companies taken over since the GFC ended up in foreign hands.

The blue chips in the top 10 have proved to be a resilient bunch — six are still there, with only Westfield disappearing via a series of complex restructures and takeovers.





More about the abhorred,  absorbed, adored, the floored and the moored are here > https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-01/asx-winners-and-losers-since-the-gfc/11345876


----------



## PZ99 (1 August 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> You sober now? 6800 lol



We all will be if it falls in a heap again


----------



## qldfrog (1 August 2019)

PZ99 said:


> ASX's big churn sees 40pc of the top 100 shares disappear since the GFC
> 
> Key points:
> 
> ...



Funny just read that and wanted to share.
not knowing where i choose that thread and @PZ99  beat me
Very interesting factor when system testing etc


----------



## qldfrog (1 August 2019)

The interesting point is that most did not go bankrupt but bought off usually at a premium


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2019)

Good evening all, here is the 2019 year end wrap up for the All Ords.

*The XAO closed today at 6802 which was up 19% for the year. (Up 1093 Points)*

This year we did crack the highs of 6873 that happened on November 1st. 2007. However, we could not sustain it. In the last 2 days we had a bit of a wipe out and lost quite a few points off the index so unfortunately the All Ords is still going nowhere for over 12 years.

That's right, we are still more than 12 years behind where the market first reached it's highs in 2007.

Anyhow, we are doing year end 2020 predictions in a separate thread. Please head on over there and put in where you think the XAO will end the year next year, thank you.
Yearly XAO Prediction Thread


----------



## tinhat (31 December 2019)

Bill M said:


> Good evening all, here is the 2019 year end wrap up for the All Ords.
> 
> *The XAO closed today at 6802 which was up 19% for the year. (Up 1093 Points)*
> 
> ...




This thread should be renamed to "*Total returns in the All Ordinaries went nowhere for six years then doubled over the next six years*".



Source

In terms of making any sensible analysis of the Australian stock market such as any meaningful comparison of its performance against other asset classes and the stock markets of other jurisdictions, to say that "_...we are still more than 12 years behind where the market first reached it's highs_" is completely meaningless except as a purely technical piece of data.

I am sure this has been discussed earlier in this thread at length, but we all know that because of differing tax policies dividend payout ratios of the top weighted ASX companies are completely different to those on say the NYSE. The only way to compare apples with apples is to look at the accumulation index and if so inclined, calculate a cumulative annualised return from there.

I would assume that any sensible investor would benchmark their performance against the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index (my online portfolio management system does).

Here are the percentage total returns of the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index for 2007 to 2019:

2018, -2.8%
2017, 12.5%
2016, 11.6%
2015, 3.8%
2014, 5.0%
2013, 19.7%
2012, 18.8%
2011, -11.4%
2010, 3.3%
2009, 39.6%
2008, -40.4%
2007, 18%
source

2019 I am guessing will be somewhere around 24%, a big year in any case!

I too have thrown my hat into the ring once again for the ASX end of year tipping competition, but it is just a laugh. Using the regression line between the market bottom of 2009 to the end of 2019, the standard deviation from that line is about 700 points. So, even excluding a major market crash, such as in 2008, there is a good chance the market will fluctuate around 700 points above or below the regression line which is currently sitting at about 6450. So really, probably the only meaningful prediction that would be worthwhile making is whether the market will be up or down. Most of the predictions in the comp, including mine, are within the statistical margin of error!

Why bring up standard deviation? Because of this chart:


ibid.

Anyway, best of luck to all in the new year!


----------



## tinhat (31 December 2019)

Here is my chart of the standard deviation channel for the XAO from the 2009 bottom to yesterday's close. I meant to post this above.


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2019)

Hey @tinhat kudos to you for all your input. I am not much of a chartist so I think how the XAO performs is vital for all the people out there as simple as what I am. For those of us who buy only ETF's or LIC's it works like this. (For me anyway)

If I put xxxx dollars in when say the XAO is the level of 6,000 then that is my starting point, or cost base. After that I just hold and collect dividends. To me and to probably a lot of other simplistic investors the get in and get out point all revolves around the XAO level at the time of entry and exit. What happens in between really doesn't matter as we just hold and get those dividends to live on. (Us retirees that is).

During the last 12 years of holding an ETF that mirrors the XAO all that has happened to us was the dividends changed from 5% to 7% and now back to to around 5% again. If we bought in 2007 and got out now then we would be 100% capital gain tax neutral as there were no losses or gains. We just got paid to hold the ETF. Some of us don't (or at least I don't) re-invest dividends as that is our income. 

So for us ETF investing old farts we didn't make anything over the last 12 years in capital gains and probably made an average of 6% dividends over that period of time. The accumulation index is of no importance to me, I never look at it nor do I care about it and I have never known where it has been at anytime in my investing years. Price in, price out and what do I get in between during that time , that's what matters to me, cheers.


----------



## sptrawler (31 December 2019)

Bill M said:


> Hey @tinhat kudos to you for all your input. I am not much of a chartist so I think how the XAO performs is vital for all the people out there as simple as what I am. For those of us who buy only ETF's or LIC's it works like this. (For me anyway)
> 
> If I put xxxx dollars in when say the XAO is the level of 6,000 then that is my starting point, or cost base. After that I just hold and collect dividends. To me and to probably a lot of other simplistic investors the get in and get out point all revolves around the XAO level at the time of entry and exit. What happens in between really doesn't matter as we just hold and get those dividends to live on. (Us retirees that is).
> 
> ...



A beautiful KISS strategy Bill, which in hindsight would have been my best option, kudos to you mate.


----------



## bigdog (1 January 2020)

*By comparison the 2019 US market had remarkable year*

MILESTONES APLENTY: The S&P 500 has set record highs 35 times this year, up from 19 last year. The benchmark index closed above 3,000 points for the first time in September.

The Dow, which climbed above the 28,000 mark for the first time in November, has set 22 record highs this year, eclipsing the 15 it set in 2018.

The Nasdaq, which closed above 9,000 for the first time in late December, has marked 31 new highs this year, beating last year's 16 times.

TECH’S BIG YEAR: Technology stocks have helped power the broader market’s gains this year. Tech is on track to finish 2019 with a gain of about 47.5%, well ahead of the other 10 sectors in the S&P 500.

BANKING ON BANKS: Financial sector stocks, especially big banks, posted strong gains in 2019, despite a sharp pullback in interest rates.

The sector is up 28.8% for the year, while JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup are each up over 40%.


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2020)

Good evening all, here is the 2020 year end wrap up for the All Ords.

*The XAO closed today at 6850 which was up .7% for the year. (Up 48 Points)*

This year we did crack the highs of 6873 that happened on November 1st. 2007 but fell again due to the pandemic. We then recovered to this point, which is lower than where we were in 2007.

*So now the All Ords is still a whopping 13 years behind the highs of 2007.*

I don't know where the New Year Year 2021 will take us, some say a severe crash, others say it's going much higher as term deposits are paying less than 1% these days.

Anyhow, we are doing year end 2021 predictions in a separate thread. Please head on over there and put in where you think the XAO will end the 2021 year, thank you.

Yearly XAO Prediction Thread


----------



## Bill M (31 December 2021)

Good afternoon all traders and investors. Wow, what a year we have had. 

*The market has just closed for 2021 and the All Ords closed at 7779 which is up 13.6% for the calendar year.*

This is the first year since Nov 1st. 2007 that the All Ords closed above 6873 at year end which was the previous all time high. 

*So it has taken 14 years to finally crack the all time high and it has happened this year.*

What an effort it's been.

Happy New Year everyone.🎉


----------



## Belli (31 December 2021)

If I were to measure anything, I'd prefer this as it includes dividends/distributions.


----------

