# Question/s



## tech/a (25 June 2005)

Firstly.
What needs to happen before ANY trade can make a profit?


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## Knobby22 (25 June 2005)

I would say that the present price is not the correct price i.e. the stock or dollar or commodity is under or overvalued and you believe the public perception will change or is presently changing. This is the way Soros works whom I greatly respect.
(I'm pretty sure that's not the answer your looking for tech/a).


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## Smurf1976 (25 June 2005)

You have to open your position.


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## dutchie (25 June 2005)

You have to have a plan.


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## serp (25 June 2005)

Knobby22 said:
			
		

> I would say that the present price is not the correct price i.e. the stock or dollar or commodity is under or overvalued and you believe the public perception will change or is presently changing. This is the way Soros works whom I greatly respect.
> (I'm pretty sure that's not the answer your looking for tech/a).




Heh, the text book financial management university answer!


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## tech/a (26 June 2005)

*Knobby*---This is a setup and can be found or percieved in many ways.
Whether the market agrees or price actually reacts is not known.
So in itself it wont cause profit without something else happening.

*Smurf*---yes you sure do and bought a smile to my face as many watch opportunities flash past.----But opening a postion in itself wont cause profit.

*Dutchie*---again true you should have a plan--I say dont open a trade without one.---But having a plan wont cause a profit.


*Profit in trading stock can only occur if you are IN A TREND.
No trend no profit.*


*Question 2

Other than limiting our loss why have a stop?
Other than limiting our loss what can be achieved or should we be trying to achieve by varying our stop?*


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## Milk Man (26 June 2005)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Question 2
> 
> Other than limiting our loss why have a stop?
> Other than limiting our loss what can be achieved or should we be trying to achieve by varying our stop?*




a): to lock in profit

b): to maximise profit and block whipsaws

just testing 5%, 6%, 7% and 8% trailing stops on a medium trading strategy i developed


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## tech/a (26 June 2005)

Sorry meaning Initial stops.
Not Trailing Stops.

While on Trailing stops.
When should a trailing stop be applied.

Most trailing stops are applied incorrectly----as they negate and annulify a methods EXIT.In which case the EXIT becomes the trailing stop in EVERY instant.


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## dutchie (26 June 2005)

As mentioned the stop is in place to limit the loss if the trade goes wrong but the stop position should also incorporate (if possible) a leeway that the stock may fall before rising to its predicted level.


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## tech/a (28 June 2005)

Often traders lose sight of the reason for a stop.

A stop is placed for the sole reason of capital protection, but why do we need to have it.

Well the reason why we buy a stock or commodity in the first place often proves to be wrong.(more often than we would like!)
When this occures its your stop which limits your loss.

*But where to put the stop.
There are many theories as to best placed stops.My preference is in the closest position possible where price action shows that the reason for buying the instrument in the first place NO LONGER exists.*

Even from a fundamental point of veiw a stop can and should be found and placed.

*For those who are concerned that as soon as their stop is hit then the price will miraculously stop and reverse in the direction they first thought---my suggestion is to have a RE ENTRY point where CLEARLY the reason for entering the instrument is again valid----set a stop again for the new trade.*

These small hints should stop you from setting stops that are too wide and consequently annulify the reason for placing one in the first place---to preserve capital.

Get used to taking small loses and letting the winners run.

*Question.
What is the correct way and reason to set a TRAILING STOP*


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## Porper (28 June 2005)

tech/a said:
			
		

> What is the correct way and reason to set a TRAILING STOP




Ok, I'll have a stab at this, as participation makes it sink in better.

First of all the reason for any stop is to preserve starting capital, profits and in this case stop you taking profits too early

The next part of the question is a bit trickier.As far as I understand it a trailing stop works as follows :

Say you wanted to sell xyz share and it was $1.00.
You would set your stop at say 0.99c, if it is hit, fine you are stopped out.
If the price went up to $1.01 you would set the stop at $1.00, just keep moving your stop one cent below the current price.This way you can stay in a rising trend.

I haven't done this, but you can also have a percentage trailing stop, not sure about the calculations used though, presumably a set percentage of any rise is followed until the share price retreats ?

Well that's my little stab, little being the word.


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## tech/a (28 June 2005)

Porper.

You are correct in describing "ONE" style of trailing stop.

BUT

In the thread abov I've made 2 statements

(1) Most place a trailing stop and it becomes THE EXIT.So in other words there is no point in having an exit as the trailing stop just takes out the trade when it retraces a little.In some cases this is fine.
However if you want the 300-400-500% winners that are out there a trailing stop wont let you get on one long enough to take advantage.

(2) Most think the reason is to maximise profit by not giving back much---well that to is true---so how do we over come (1) and why should you place a trailing stop---there is a correct use which satisfies both 1 & 2

At least you had a go and your thinking!


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## Milk Man (29 June 2005)

its one factor in a positive expectancy strategy- maybe just a means to an end?

i'm assuming you're suggesting a trailing stop and a mechanical exit 

had enough mental excercise for now-  

 answer?


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## RichKid (29 June 2005)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Porper.
> 
> You are correct in describing "ONE" style of trailing stop.
> 
> ...




To confuse the issue (in my mind) there is the 'breakeven stop' so that would be another type of stop which gives even less leeway for a volatile share, especially if it is moved up asap to the entry price (ignoring brokerage). I suppose if the support and technical levels correspond then that is okay (to move it up fast).

As for your two points tech- do we let the set-up which triggerred our entry play itself out before setting a trailing stop? ie stop should be outside the set-up range and set at the failure level, that way it's not interfering with the reason you entered. So if you entered a channel you'd have your stop below the lower support line all the time. Then maybe once the price has taken off upwards (when long) you can apply either a tested trailing stop (eg an 180 day EMA as in techtrader) or look for new support levels or use bollinger bands or something like that.

Just guesses here on my part as I'm trying to work this one out too (eg my recent, uneventful, PRK trade), it's difficult for me to apply in practice, still looking for a set guideline to write into my plan?! Do you think it is possible to have one rule in relation to stops/trailing stops which you can apply consistently? I assume you've done it with the techtrader 180EMA but what about the initial days or weeks of a trade when it's not quite going anywhere but is just around the entry price? Do you also use a time stop?? or would it be obvious from the setup (the reason you entered) if the price didn't move as expected?


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## tech/a (29 June 2005)

Trailing stops should be placed to protect an extra ordinary gain.

If an instrument rises at a rate well above the norm,it may gain more than it would normally in 6 mths.(as an example) it is here that the extra ordinary profit should be protected with a trailing stop.

The reason for the trailing stop is to protect extra ordinary profit which isnt likely to be seen again.

One way of guaging extra ordinary is to rate Trends or Price Moves.

Say adding 30-50% to price.Suggested Trailing stops

Vertical--straight up.---Very close EG the close of the previous day.
70 degrees very quick rise---- low of the previous day
60 degrees still a quick rise----Parabolic SAR.
45 degrees------Normal exit this is a normal trend angle.


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## markrmau (30 June 2005)

Unfortunately, specifying this as an angle (70degrees) makes your criteria dependent on scales (time and price) which you draw your chart with.

For 45 degrees, are you thinking about 1% per day? or a little less, 5-10% /month??


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## tech/a (30 June 2005)

Mark.

Yes thats true

Arithmetic or Log?
I think most can recognise a vertical rise in any time and price.
These price hikes occur in short timeframes thats why they are outliers and as such give an extra ordinary oppotunity to profit a larger take than normal.
As the extent of the rise cannot be known until its over a trailing stop helps trap profit when the corrective fall appears.

QUESTIONS

(1) What should we be trying to achieve with our choice of exit?
(2) How can we guage wether it is appropriate?


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## TjamesX (30 June 2005)

Maybe a good picture of a recent vertical example;

GDY - it was up there in the himilayas for just two days, before coming back to earth. The movement was completely abnormal, and a result of good news that got waaaay ahead of itself.


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## tech/a (1 July 2005)

TJ

Thanks
certaintly a great example where the whole move equated to more than the previous years.By locking in the majority of that profit then you could have gained possibly more than this stock will ever be worth.


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## Milk Man (1 July 2005)

markrmau said:
			
		

> Unfortunately, specifying this as an angle (70degrees) makes your criteria dependent on scales (time and price) which you draw your chart with.
> 
> For 45 degrees, are you thinking about 1% per day? or a little less, 5-10% /month??




I realised this the other day when trying to quantify rallies/trends. Straight up is obviously easy, as tech points out, but as far as i can fathom its a matter of relativity with the rest. If the stock goes into a steep incline relative to its past performance then obviously it cant hold. Or am i wrong? Maybe the stock wasn't going anywhere; then an apparently steep rise would be just the resumption of a sustainable trend. To be right on the money the trend would probably have to be quantified in percentage terms or a set scale used.


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## tech/a (1 July 2005)

Laok.

From my observations of 1000s of charts,it appears that the most sustained trends are those that tend to rise at 1:1 to time and price.

Price action out of this "Norm" tends to give rise to change as the price action reverts to "percieved" true value.In other words volatility virtually ceases.Price becomes uniform again.

Have a look at TOL and QBE and UTB to see what I mean re long term and price moving in an orderly manner as the trend evolves---deviation then leads to return to the mean.


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## idribble (2 July 2005)

Tech/A your preposition that "Profit in trading stock can only occur if you are IN A TREND.  No trend no profit." is laughable and narrow minded.


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## tech/a (2 July 2005)

Yes I do understand that there are ways to arb positions. Certaintly you could sell a call or put and collect premium,making time work for you.

The statement was meant for the majority that trade long in shares or short for that matter by purchasing or selling stock.

But I'm interested in your expansion of various ways of profiting from the market particularly in shares----without a trend.

Thanks for putting me in my place----I guess I have underestimated the need to be very specific in all matters--I'll make every attempt to be sure that it wont happen again.

A simple ---well I do know of some ways to make a profit without a trend would have sufficed---

However the lack of explaination and generality was certaintly my fault,narrowminded and lau :jump: ghable.


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## idribble (2 July 2005)

tech/as you're the reason I don't post on here.  I could put up my method only to have you ram it down my throat with your usual arrogance.


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## kaleon (2 July 2005)

Hi Tech/a 

Please don't let this idiot put you off further posts.I value your posts and look forward to more from you

Cheers

Norman


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## idribble (2 July 2005)

Dont worry Kaleon, tech/a wont stop posting.  His ego is the inverse of his credibility.

Have you contacted him privately yet?


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## tech/a (3 July 2005)

idribble said:
			
		

> Dont worry Kaleon, tech/a wont stop posting.  His ego is the inverse of his credibility.
> 
> Have you contacted him privately yet?




*Now how can I argue with that!*
I take that as a compliment.
Thank you.


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## tech/a (3 July 2005)

tech/a said:
			
		

> But I'm interested in your expansion of various ways of profiting from the market particularly in shares----without a trend.





Dribbles I'm not asking you to put up your method but you've made a statement so I'm genuinely interested in your input.


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## tech/a (3 July 2005)

*EXITS*

*Back to the application of exits.*

Balance is the key to exits.Here we must attempt to capture as much of the move in our timeframe as we can without giving to much back to the market in our pursuit of letting profits run.

Rather than randomly picking an exit,one suggestion is (In the timeframe you are trading) experiment with exits which will keep you in the trade for the MAJORITY of any prolonged move.

Many traders attempt to devise a method which will succeed in ALL market conditions---infact many believe that this is the basis for a good trading method.
Unless this is what your specifically designing your trading around--like a swing trading method---then designing and trading a method in times SUITED to the method are both acceptable and logical.

Which brings me to the second suggestion to trading exits---one that in preliminary testing on a number of methods I know are being actively traded---has returned marked increases in profitability and less in drawdowns.

*Simply this is exiting the whole portfolio*---or stocks you are trading when market conditions are not siuted to your style regardless of where your trading exit is placed or when it will be triggered---in other words this exit overrides all other exits. This can be guaged in any timeframe you wish to use.

Suggestions are. (and used in tests)
(1) When an index shows that conditions are not those for which your method is designed---eg Long and the market is a bear market.
(2) When your portfolio chart triggers a drawdown---IE a composite chart of your portfolio that your holding turns below an exit (Amibroker can make up these charts and I've asked David Samborsky of TRADESIM wether he can incorporate this feature in his next upgrade)
(3) The same for a composite chart of ALL stocks you hold in your universe of stocks.
(4) OR both.

These are the next generation in trade exits in my veiw.


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## tech/a (3 July 2005)

*Question*

Entry,Initial Stops,Trailing stops,Trade Exits,Portfolio exits.

Is this ALL we need?


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## idribble (3 July 2005)

"Dribbles I'm not asking you to put up your method but you've made a statement so I'm genuinely interested in your input."

tech/a you're not "genuinely interested" at all.  All you're interested in doing is arrogantly lecturing people with your one dimensional view of the market.  You claim to have made money during a bull market, well many have but not all have self promoted themselves as gurus. 

I just don't believe any of the "proof" you put forward as to how wealthy you are from the market.  But I suppose those that have not been in the markets for very long hang off every word, and that's what you live off.

I'll revisit your posts in a few months just for a few more laughs.


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## tech/a (3 July 2005)

Dribbles.

Fair enough-----your veiw.


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## Fleeta (3 July 2005)

I don't hang off every word tech says, but I do find him interesting and informative and thought provoking...and I don't think he claimed to make most of his wealth from the market anyway, but from property and business.

Dribble, I can't find much interesting that you have added to these forums...so maybe you should stop having a sook about everyone else having something interesting to say.


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## Jesse Livermore (3 July 2005)

*OUTSTANDING!*

Hi Tech/A,

I just wanted to let you know that your posts are OUTSTANDING, and on behalf of the younger members of this forum I would like to thankyou for sharing your excellent knowledge of financial trading and investment.

Have you ever considered writing a book?

Jesse Livermore


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## Milk Man (4 July 2005)

*Re: OUTSTANDING!*



			
				Jesse Livermore said:
			
		

> Hi Tech/A,
> 
> I just wanted to let you know that your posts are OUTSTANDING, and on behalf of the younger members of this forum I would like to thankyou for sharing your excellent knowledge of financial trading and investment.
> 
> ...




books cost money - better posted here!


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## RichKid (4 July 2005)

About the last few posts b/w tech & idribble: firstly, thanks gents for not taking that exchange too far as it could have got really ugly. 

Dribbles, it really would be useful if you could discuss your methods or views in a new thread and focus less on tech/a (as opposed to his views). If you want to ignore tech you can just put him on your 'ignore' list. As I understand it, that virtually means he doesn't exist here as far as you're concerned for posting purposes (Joe may correct me on the technical aspect of that option).

I for one am interested in various views, to repeat what was said earlier, I don't hang on every word tech says but I do find it educational and thought provoking so we try to learn and contribute as best we can just as Tech has. Perhaps you would like to contribute too. Us beginners have no idea what the technical content of your criticisms are since you haven't elaborated (apart from drawing out the excellent point about not having to be in a trend- not sure if what Tech said was what you had in mind but at least it has added to the quality of this thread).

C'mon, I'm sure you're not intimidated that much by Tech to be concerned about posting here? The forum code of conduct prohibits certain types of behaviour but a detailed technical debate is another thing- if you feel certain posts are inappropriate just pm me or Joe and we will look into it with great care- we won't know what you think unless you contact us.


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## RichKid (4 July 2005)

*Re: OUTSTANDING!*



			
				loakglen said:
			
		

> books cost money - better posted here!




It also takes a lot of time to do I guess and tech hasn't retired yet! Maybe a manual or course but then this is just as good imo as it's interactive and other experts can comment on tech's views as well. Okay, back to the thread.


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## ob1kenobi (5 July 2005)

Personally, I find all the threads on this site interesting. People like Wayne, Tech/A, RickKid, Investor, etc I find to be very informative. That said I take it on board and make my own decisions to suit my own financial circumstances. We are all companions on the journey. How we get there is up to each of us! Always be prepared to learn from others, age makes little difference, if what is said is worthwhile. Keep up the good work everyone!


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