# CCU - Cobar Consolidated Resources



## yogi-in-oz (12 July 2006)

Hi folks,

CCU ..... floated today, with an intraday rush of blood,
but failed to hold onto the highs, finishing around 25 cents.

Looking ahead, CCU will probably range-trade sideways,
until October 2006, when we will be alert for some good
news, as several positive time cycles come into play:

        14072006 ..... minor and positive (intraday)

        24072006 ..... positive news/moves ... finance-related???

2807-01082006 ..... 2 negative cycles here, testing support??

   15-17082006 ..... 2 cycles ... news of minor difficulties??

   29-30082006 ..... spotlight on CCU, may bring  negative news???
                             ..... testing lows again???


        11092006 ..... negative and finance-related ... testing lows??? 

   15-18092006 ..... 2 minor cycles here .... ???

        29092006 ..... minor


    05-06102006 ..... 2 cycles here may bring positive news

 2710-01112006 ..... spotlight on 3 very positive cycles here,
                             may bring an aggressive rally ...???       

         22112006 ..... first of many negative CCU cycles in
                             November/December 2006.

happy trading

   yogi


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## MACW (15 November 2006)

I have been keeping an eye on this company recently and today noticed that they called a trading halt.  Would anyone have a possible idea if their upcoming announcement might be a positive or negative announcement.


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## yogi-in-oz (26 June 2007)

Hi folks,

CCU ..... on the move again ..... !~!

More later ... 

happy days

 paul


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## hobo-jo (12 June 2009)

Only have until the 17th of June to get your money in for the SPP for anyone that has received the current offer (for purchase at 6c). I took the full allocation of 160k shares.

Here are some notes I've collated over the last week or so:

*Cobar Consolidated Resources Ltd (ASX: CCU)*

- Junior Silver/minerals explorer looking to become large scale Silver producer
- Production potential by 2011
- Inferred resource at Wonawinta site of 31M ounces of silver
- Expected 5 year mine life, 3.3m/oz per year
- Expected $21m cost to start operating for a new processing plant
- At current metal prices, the net present value of the project is $60M
- Other minerals deposits are located at their sites which may have production potential


*Positives*
- Higher grade resources are close to the surface, which should allow for low cost, open pit mining.
- CCU owns majority interest (70%) in Wonawinta silver project, owned in JV with CBH Resources
- April 22nd saw CCU buy out the CBH claw-back provision; this secures CCUs rights to the 70% stake (previously CBH was able to clawback part of that ownership depending on the sites resources)
- At 6c that gives CCU shareholders the chance to buy in at the same price as the 2008 Nov/Dec lows. There are very few other silver/gold stocks which can be bought at their prices over that period.
- Projected cash cost per ounce (net of lead credits) were reduced last year from $8.30p/oz to $6.25p/oz, current AUD silver price is around $18 per ounce, giving around an $12 profit per ounce
- Eye Investment Fund own significant (8%) stake in CCU, EIF also owns 10% of SLR, an explorer gone producer who's share price has recently gone up around 400% in 5 months
- 70% of CCU is held by the top 20 shareholders, a good sign from those that would know the company well (the director alone holds a 20% stake)
- Further exploration opportunities – 70km of strike to explore to north & south of existing site. HUGE exploration potential!
- Potential to find other silver/resource deposits within it’s several other areas of exploration.
- Interest in the stock appears to be picking up with stock volumes increasing
- Australian based production would be much safer than some other international silver projects
- Experienced Director Ian Lawrence (former Snr WMC Resources Executive - 20 years)


*Negatives*
- Company is a junior explorer and there is plenty that could go wrong before production
- Could have difficulty getting finance for start up costs and purchase processing plant
- Resources could not be as large as expected or cost more than expected to pull out of the ground
- SPP funds are being raised to complete a feasibility study, although seems unlikely, the mine may not be feasible
- 70% of CCU is held by the top 20 shareholders, while a good sign from large holders it makes the stock trade quite illiquid and some big moves can come from very small trades, liquidity should improve one the SPP shares are on the market from the 24th of June


*Other CCU Resources*
Official website of Cobar Consolidated Resources:
www.ccrlimited.com.au
Audio interview with the Managing Director Ian Lawrence (Aug 2008):
www.brr.com.au/event/49122/wonawinta-silver-project-a-pathway-to-production
Recent article re SPP, Directors shareholding & more:
http://business.theage.com.au/busin...y-into-uranium-hunt-20090510-az96.html?page=2


*Thoughts on Silver:*
My personal opinion is that we will see gold at a MINIMUM of its inflation adjusted high from 1980 (which would be approximately US$2500) within the next 3 years. Currently the Silver/Gold ratio is quite a bit higher than the historical average and if history has told us anything, we will see silver slingshot to a ratio of as low as 15 or 20 to 1 during times of interest in precious metals (even if for a brief period). Even if we looked at a more conservative ratio, let’s say it only reaches 25:1. That would give silver a price of approximately $100 per ounce (with gold at $2500). Can you imagine CCU’s profits and share price if it was producing $330M worth of silver annually with a 70% stake in the profits…? This could be a 10, 20 or 50 bagger!


Consider the SPP offer if you have it or look out for potential cheap entry when the SPP shares hit the market on the 24/06. I doubt it will fall back to 6c, but you might get high 7s if you're lucky.

DYOR


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## hobo-jo (19 August 2009)

40% increase in resource announced today after further drilling.
44.3m/oz is a bucket load of silver!


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## hobo-jo (21 September 2009)

Seems to be not many here with an interest in quality junior stocks?

SILVER SECRETS


> Australia is the world's fifth-biggest producer of silver. But you would not know that by scanning the ASX lists to find a pure silver play. Our silver is produced as a byproduct at base metal operations such as Mount Isa, Cannington and the old Silver City itself, Broken Hill.
> 
> All that has presented a bit of a marketing problem for the managing director of Cobar Consolidated Resources, Ian ''Mudguts'' Lawrence. He reckons the local market does not know how to value a silver play, prompting the metallurgist who was once general manager of operations for WMC, to spend time on a roadshow to eastern state investors outlining his thoughts on the matter.
> 
> ...




Still time to enter at a good price...but for how much longer?


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## hobo-jo (12 October 2009)

*Another increase in their silver resource today.*



> Wonawinta resource upgrade
> • 14% increase in silver mineral inventory
> • High conversion from inferred to indicated resource
> • Higher silver grade
> ...





Cash cost to retrieve the silver is currently estimated at $6.25 per ounce (net lead credits), but with lead prices now significantly higher than when that information was compiled we could see cash costs revised significantly lower.

Also as you can see below CCU appears to have formed a large cup and handle pattern. There is very little resistance before 40-50c once the 21c barrier is broken.

If silver is up overnight I would expect CCU to be well into the green again tomorrow.



*Cobar Consolidated rising in stature on soaring silver price *
_ Monday, October 12, 2009_


> Fast emerging New South Wales silver producer Cobar Consolidated Resources (ASX: CCU) has increased its silver mineral resource at the Wonawinta project.
> 
> Located south of Cobar in western New South Wales, Wonawinta now boasts a resource of 50m ounces of silver (previously 44m ounces) at an average silver grade of 52g/t, up from 48g/t.
> 
> ...


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## hobo-jo (27 October 2009)

Got a mention in today's issue of Australian Small Cap Investor, with the heading: "You Could Make a 813% gain by October 2011 if You Buy Two 'Silver' Stocks In The Next Thirty Days"

Hope some users are reading my posts and doing their due diligence on this one 

I feel like I'm talking to myself in an empty room...hellllloooo...ooo..oo...o

Broke out of the above cup and handle with today's close also.


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## eddyeagle (27 October 2009)

Yeah this one received the standard ASI treatment - a 37% instant jump after the release of the report! 

Some big trades going through as well - several parcels of $60-70K!!!


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## vincent191 (12 November 2009)

hobo-jo said:


> Got a mention in today's issue of Australian Small Cap Investor, with the heading: "You Could Make a 813% gain by October 2011 if You Buy Two 'Silver' Stocks In The Next Thirty Days"
> 
> Hope some users are reading my posts and doing their due diligence on this one
> 
> ...




hobo jo---- this room might be empty but I can hear you laughing all the way to the bank. You have already made a 500% profit and you have a bagful of them. Congratulation, you can shout me a beer or two.

Looks like there is further upside to perhaps push 40 cents soon?? Very exciting. My only concern is, will the price of silver hold up at $18?? It is fast approaching it's 5 year high of around $20 from memory. Unlike gold, silver is not considered a precious metal and supply is greater than demand. I see a bubble starting to form and as with all bubbles it will eventually burst. 

So I don't think I will mortage my house and put that on silver but  in the meantime I am enjoying the ride.


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## skyQuake (12 November 2009)

vincent191 said:


> hobo jo---- this room might be empty but I can hear you laughing all the way to the bank. You have already made a 500% profit and you have a bagful of them. Congratulation, you can shout me a beer or two.
> 
> Looks like there is further upside to perhaps push 40 cents soon?? Very exciting. My only concern is, will the price of silver hold up at $18?? It is fast approaching it's 5 year high of around $20 from memory. Unlike gold, silver is not considered a precious metal and supply is greater than demand. I see a bubble starting to form and as with all bubbles it will eventually burst.
> 
> So I don't think I will mortage my house and put that on silver but  in the meantime I am enjoying the ride.




Don't think long term fundamental concerns are what CCU speculators are worrying about at the moment. Everyone's just enjoying the ride. Watch out when it makes a lower low or gaps up significantly though.


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## SimonSaysTrade (12 November 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Watch out when it makes a lower low or gaps up significantly though.




What's a 'gap up' ?

Worth getting in on this one now? This would be my first trade ever...

Thanks in advance.


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## prawn_86 (12 November 2009)

SimonSaysTrade said:


> Worth getting in on this one now? This would be my first trade ever...




Simon,

Please note that it is against ASIC guidelines for members to give financial advice, such as buy, sell etc.

I suggest you do a search for 'gaps' using the site search function.

Thanks

Prawn


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## acfnais (12 November 2009)

CCU.AX has closed above the upper band by 12.3%. If the price is in a uptrend; then this upward trend has a good chance to continue. above the upper band by 12.3%. If price is in a uptrend band; this upward trend in price might continue. However a short term pullback inside the band is likely.Bollinger Bands are 308.5% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to CCU.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this wide range for 12 bars. This is a sign that the current trend might continue. 

Now at a resistance point of 38c. Once past here then on the way towards 44c.


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## vincent191 (12 November 2009)

acfnais said:


> CCU.AX has closed above the upper band by 12.3%. If the price is in a uptrend; then this upward trend has a good chance to continue. above the upper band by 12.3%. If price is in a uptrend band; this upward trend in price might continue. However a short term pullback inside the band is likely.Bollinger Bands are 308.5% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to CCU.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this wide range for 12 bars. This is a sign that the current trend might continue.
> 
> Now at a resistance point of 38c. Once past here then on the way towards 44c.





It has now broken 39c and buyers still outstrip sellers. I think this will breakout to >40c.  Guys please don't listen to me, I am not a Financial Advisor. I hold CCU and this is just a discussion. 

There are many much better informed people out there. I am just flowing with current and enjoying the swim. Nice to be on a winner


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## vincent191 (13 November 2009)

Despite getting a speeding ticket yesterday from ASIC it is still powering up. And commodity prices have weaken as well overnight. It has been a great ride. Why can't all my holdings behave like this. No use looking at the charts I guess it will peak when it peaks. Anyone got anything different?


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## vincent191 (28 November 2009)

Another resources upgrade and the price of silver keeps climbing. I reckon CCU will retest the 40 cents mark again very soon. Exciting times for this small cap junior. Demand for silver is tipped to strengthen, hurry up CCU and announce firm production plans. I need the money!!!!  CCU is better than sex.


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## liberdee (10 December 2009)

Does anyone have any ideas as to why this is performing so poorly of late? The SP has plummeted quite drastically without any seeming reason? At least none according to this (very) new trader


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## skyQuake (10 December 2009)

liberdee said:


> Does anyone have any ideas as to why this is performing so poorly of late? The SP has plummeted quite drastically without any seeming reason? At least none according to this (very) new trader




Cause gold and silver tanked. Also keep in mind it ran VERY hard from 7c or so.
Right now its just making consecutive lower lows and lower highs. No reason to buy imo


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## simonk83 (11 December 2009)

liberdee said:


> Does anyone have any ideas as to why this is performing so poorly of late? The SP has plummeted quite drastically without any seeming reason? At least none according to this (very) new trader




Yep, it's just because Gold (and hence Silver) has dropped a fair bit.  Once Gold picks back up (and it should), CCU will as well.   Nothing has changed fundamentally with the stock, so it's just a matter of sitting and waiting.  A correction was probably due anyway.


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## rhyslivs (6 September 2010)

Silver hit a new 15 week high at $19.75 an ounce over the weekend.

This should bode well for CCU over the coming week and weeks which will complement a general pickup in sentiment towards resource small caps.


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## rhyslivs (15 September 2010)

With the run silver has had over the last 2 weeks I can't believe this thread has stayed so quiet!

Anyone else still holding?


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## dandd (17 September 2010)

Exciting to see the share price start to take off again.  Missed out on buying when I first noticed this stock and watched it climb over 40c, then managed to get in at 16.5c around six months ago and not much action since then.  Appears patience is indeed a virtue.  Only regret I have is not trusting my judgement enough to take a larger stake!  Now the question is how far will it run and when to sell.  Difficult to put a value on this one but there certainly seems to be some momentum building now...


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## dandd (6 November 2010)

Why so quiet around here on this thread?  Would have thought good share price action coupled with recent silver price performance would have generated some comment!


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## TabJockey (15 December 2010)

The rumours that the JP Morg has stopped shorting silver is having an effect around the traps I think. 10% yesterday and not looking to drop back today. Not too concerned if it did though, clear upward trend and fundamentals are there.

A week in and 15% up I cant complain but im a medium term holder


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## TabJockey (4 January 2011)

Was at one point over 18% up today. Price of silver continues to edge higher perhaps a breakout in January. At the current Silver price my fundamental analysis gives me an EPS after production (in 11 months) of 24c.

This means I would expect the price of CCU to grow to $1.50 - $2.00 in 12 months. This will of course be higher if the price of silver continues to rise also, which I think is very likely.

Buying in at 45c was a no brainer, and even at 65c two weeks later its still undervalued on fundamentals. There is significant risk, but to get to the current market cap with a DCF you would have to use a crazy discount of 60% or something. CCU is not that risky.


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## Sharkymon (6 January 2011)

Brought these guys at 24c early last year, so it's good to see the patience starting to pay off. The initial advice I had was to cash in once the JORC resource was announced, but (as my wife will attest) I dont always follow advide - sometimes to my detriment.
In this case however, my ignorance  (stubbornness) has paid off and I'm happy to wait and see where CCU can go.


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## TabJockey (12 January 2011)

CCU has the fundamentals to support a much higher SP. If silver rises any more thats just a bonus.


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## mikem (14 February 2011)

Up 10%+ today does anyone know why


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## TabJockey (17 February 2011)

I wonder whats going on over there? This stock has been going gangbusters, up over 20% in a week and no news. Fundamentally I think its worth about $1 but still, seems overheated.


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## KurwaJegoMac (17 February 2011)

Wow this stock has one beautiful looking chart... don't know how I missed this one on my scanners. Too late into the move for me now. Good luck to those holding.


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## ob1kinobi (18 February 2011)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Wow this stock has one beautiful looking chart... don't know how I missed this one on my scanners. Too late into the move for me now. Good luck to those holding.




Just found it today. Will be watching with interest.


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## Trader Paul (19 February 2011)

Hi folks,

CCU ... expecting a positive time cycle to bring the market spotlight
on this one, around 22022011 ... 

have a great day

  paul



===


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## mikem (22 February 2011)

Silver hit a new high. CCU just keeps going.


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## Trader Paul (1 March 2011)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> CCU ... expecting a positive time cycle to bring the market spotlight
> on this one, around 22022011 ...
> ...




Hi folks,

CCU ... CCU has had a great run up since August 2010, but figure the party
is over for a little while, making its recent high on 22022011.

Some key dates ahead for CCU, may be:-

29-30032011 ... minor and positive cycle due here

22-26042011 ... minor and positive time cycle

16-20052011 ... a cluster of 4 minor, but positive cycles, expected to
bring some positive news for CCU

have a great day

paul



=====


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## kitehigh (23 March 2011)

CCU has come back nicely after the recent correction, I took the opportunity to buy in the dip.  Not going to cash in yet though as I am still bullish on silver and this is looking like a nice way to be exposed to the high price of silver.


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## naughtynickers (2 April 2011)

TabJockey said:


> The rumours that the JP Morg has stopped shorting silver is having an effect around the traps I think. 10% yesterday and not looking to drop back today. Not too concerned if it did though, clear upward trend and fundamentals are there.
> 
> A week in and 15% up I cant complain but im a medium term holder





I don't own this stock - I own a bit of the real thing and usually invest in other sectors but am on the lookout for some good silver producers in Oz as I see silver $50 easy by end of year. I still think JP Morgan and their mates at HSBC are shorting and now it look as though they are trying other tricks.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/259...ke-and-take-delivery-of-its-own-silver-shorts

ps- congratulation to long term holders of the stock, has been an outstanding performer.


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## Country Lad (22 April 2011)

naughtynickers said:


> .............has been an outstanding performer.




yep, even happier now with the rights issue.

Cheers
CL


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## style69 (12 October 2011)

anyone got any idea when they will actually start production and selling some silver?


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## asc4 (9 November 2011)

Should be end of Q1 2012. Fully funded to complete construction.


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## mr. jeff (9 November 2011)

If you read the latest announcement it is around March which explains the recent sell down. Hope that saved you 3 clicks.
The economics stack up well at these levels, although there is always the risk of the silver price coming off quickly. They are aiming for 2.5Moz/annum for 5 years, and drilling during that time for extension. Will be very profitable at these levels.

Do the figures.


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## mr. jeff (12 November 2011)

$6.50 / Oz costs for the silver.
That equates to a margin of about $25/Oz.
Over 2.0 Moz per year production that is $50M / year earnings after costs.
They've spent 44M on the build, plus extras for exploration and overheads, CCU will have in one year generated enough cash to pay back costs. 

I haven't compared with other silver stocks for MC and production etc. which would give a better indication of whether there is a case for a decent re-rating in the next few months leading up to production.  The market cap is 138M which equates to about 2.5 times earnings (limited to 5 years though until fiurther drill results). So it is up in the air in that regard as silver carries a much higher risk of volatility in pricing. 

Look at the AYN chart leading into production, it was the hot silver stock to be on, and the dumping that took hold was very final. Now it is producing away with no recovery in price. They are working towards 1.5 Moz production per annum, MC 120M and costs not noted, but I see in their recent financial report that they made no money from silver production so far, so that may explain their poor performance to date. Taking a comparison between these two suggests that CCU would reach a market cap of 1.5 x AYN's current, due to their greater production rate per year and better grades and resource. (This is very rough and by no means accurate of course, but the point here is that CCU appears to be the better silver prospect on the market at this time.)





So in summary, this is one to watch and although it has been tipped as a stock to buy by some newsletters before, it has suffered a significant sell down whilst gold stocks have finally started to really fire, and note that the POG has shown great strength recently which if maintained may flow into POS. (lower dollar won't hurt either). CCU may be presenting a decent entry opportunity over the next 3 months, worth keeping a close eye on for sustained increased volume signaling some large accumulation.


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## asc4 (12 November 2011)

great post mate. I'm bullish on silver heading higher in 2012 when ccu start production. From memory AYN has or had debt as well.


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## mr. jeff (7 February 2012)

To follow up on the November posting;




It is looking like a decent mover with the action showing the excitement building to production. Lets hope there are no hiccups, but so far so good, their updates have been showing work is to schedule and permits happening. 

A BRR link may be of interest.

Good luck to holders.


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## mr. jeff (9 February 2012)

CCU has held above the 0.75 level now and is looking poised for the next move. It appears that today is another very low volume down day and potentially a great opportunity. I am posting from a biased position of course, but if you have a look at the chart from 7th posted previously then the levels are quite clear.


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## mr. jeff (15 February 2012)

Not much favourable action yesterday or today.

I have noticed this afternoon that there are offers for around 20 shares, which is obviously someone wanting to keep the price down to help maintain buying at a lower level, although when you look at the latest chart, it is clear that there has been a lot of selling today so opposing signals.

Does anyone have any input into this ?


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## bucklenut (17 February 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> Not much favourable action yesterday or today.
> 
> I have noticed this afternoon that there are offers for around 20 shares, which is obviously someone wanting to keep the price down to help maintain buying at a lower level, although when you look at the latest chart, it is clear that there has been a lot of selling today so opposing signals.
> 
> Does anyone have any input into this ?




Yes Jeff,
Watching this one with a keen eye.. Got burned on them last year and missed an entry point at 50c so hope to get another chance at them. Took a position in svl at 14c recently and that has worked out less than fantastic so far..


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## mr. jeff (24 February 2012)

Looking better, have recovered that selling and now broken that key 80c level, which was the next hurdle. If that can hold today (which it looks as though it will ) - the next leg should come in, looking at a high of 95c.


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## mr. jeff (9 March 2012)

Since last post, CCU have announced rain delaying site works.

This has today been followed up by confirmation that work has resumed and the production start is April. SO CLOSE! 




Good news there. Eliminates any uncertainty.
CCU has come off from its strength and is worth keeping an eye on, (I am biased though). Selling has slowed and looking for increased buying on Monday.




Sorry about all the lines, looking for indications of what is happening. In hindsight topping volume was there and clear too; selling yesterday was solid, today has reduced. Interested in thoughts here.


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## mr. jeff (19 March 2012)

CCU is showing no interest in selling below 76c which is good sign that support at 75c is holding so far. There are parcels being placed (about 1283 shares per unit) on the sell at 0.76 which are topped up repeatedly. I have tested its reliability and the lots keep coming. 

There are 2 weeks until silver is being poured on site and things are looking good so far with management to date showing reliable communication and works on site progressing. No update to the market since the 9th so will be looking for news soon.


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## mr. jeff (27 April 2012)

Production nearing with quarterly stating that production to commence in April and works on site to plan. It is late, but getting very close. If you read the quarterly you will see photos of leach areas, processing plant etc. almost completed and you may also note that the photos are from 18th April, so looking like they may make that April deadline even in the face of that adverse weather. 
I have been waiting for this production and look forward to getting issued a silver medallion for being stupid and faithful. Stupid for hanging around long after it lost its trend up, and faithful because I have made good money here before and am returning to give it back like a weak trader. On the bid at 0.655 if you have any for me.




Note - My previous post was wrong on most counts.


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## Buckfont (17 September 2012)

Just had my sell order purged, one week early and one cent off before going into suspension. 

Does anyone have insight into the situation as to what`s going on here. Just a bit miffed as I came so close to offloading.


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## mr. jeff (17 September 2012)

Buckfont said:


> Just had my sell order purged, one week early and one cent off before going into suspension.
> 
> Does anyone have insight into the situation as to what`s going on here. Just a bit miffed as I came so close to offloading.




I will answer with a Pauline Hanson quote: " I don't like it"
Something funny going on with wide ranging bars showing danger, I'm stepping aside until things are more clear. 
Safer stock out there.

cheers, Jeff.


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## AllAussie (10 January 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> I will answer with a Pauline Hanson quote: " I don't like it"
> Something funny going on with wide ranging bars showing danger, I'm stepping aside until things are more clear.
> Safer stock out there.
> 
> cheers, Jeff.




This company is very dodgey.  Poor management and executive team.  Will be sticking to AYN for my silver exposure - a lot more upside from increased silver price and also exploration potential


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## battiwallah (8 March 2014)

Has anyone given any thought to the Share Purchase Plan Offer, due Tuesday, 11-March?  CCU is now producing at the stated capacity but is constrained by capital shortfall and a low silver price.  Share price is now at an extreme low, can it go down any further? I am considering dollar-cost-averaging my small shareholding; the other option being abandon ship (maybe I should have done that a while ago!).


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