# RED - Red 5 Limited



## Uncle Festivus (14 September 2007)

Symbol *RED* 
Issuer Name *RED 5 LIMITED* 
Security Description *ORDINARY FULLY PAID* 
GICS Sector Materials  
Last Price $0.082  Todays Movement 0.011 15.49%  
Last Traded 14/09/2007 10:44:28 AM         

Security Details  
Symbol *RED*  ISIN AU000000RED3  
Issuer Name *RED 5 LIMITED* 
Security Description *ORDINARY FULLY PAID*  Web  Site http://www.red5limited.com 
Issuer Type Mining (M)  
Security Type Ordinary (1)  
GICS Sector Materials  GICS Industry Group Materials  
GICS Industry Metals & Mining  
GICS Sub Industry Withheld by ASX  
GICS Code 15104000  Issuing Currency Dollars (Australia)  
Index Participation Does not participate in an index  
Quoted Security Quoted and Tradable  
Short Sell Status Security cannot be short sold  
CHESS Eligibility CHESS eligible  

Fundamentals  
Total Class Issue 309,288,043  
Market Capitalisation $25,361,620  
Asset Backing $0.00  Earnings Rate Per Share -$0.0051  
Earnings Yield N/A  
Price/Earnings Ratio N/A  
Paid Up Value $0.0000  
52week  High/Low 0.130 / 0.070

Substantial Shareholders 

Mathews Capital Partners                 19.5%
AngloGold Ashanti Australia Limited 13.0%

-------------

Main project - Sianna, Philippines
Open pit Jorc Resource - 340Kozs Au, 870Kozs Ag
Combined inferred resources open pit + undergound - 720kozs Au, 1.34Mozs Ag
Total Ind & Inf - 1Moz Au, 2.2Moz Ag

Cash costs/oz - $US392


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## golfmos123 (14 September 2007)

Thanks Uncle F,

Do you want to let us know why you posted all the details but without anything personal from you??  Why the interest in this one??

I made some money trading this one a long while back when it was hovering in the 10-12s type area but haven't looked at it since.  I'm interested to hear other thoughts on it too....


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## Uncle Festivus (15 September 2007)

golfmos123 said:


> Thanks Uncle F,
> 
> Do you want to let us know why you posted all the details but without anything personal from you??  Why the interest in this one??
> 
> I made some money trading this one a long while back when it was hovering in the 10-12s type area but haven't looked at it since.  I'm interested to hear other thoughts on it too....




A bit of a work in progress, I ran out of time to update with more details.
From their reports they are getting close to giving the go ahead to mine. Only one problem maybe - raising the $60m odd to buy the plant. In this climate it could go either way - if their fundamentals are compelling enough for financial backing then it's game on for a 10-12 year gold/silver & copper mine. 

There is also the close proximity to Anglo America-PhilEx Joint Venture's Boyongan copper-gold deposit (15moz) also, who may or may not be looking to expand/merge/takeover.

Just one to keep on the watchlist around this price (7-8c) maybe?


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## Uncle Festivus (16 October 2007)

Announcement out today, progress towards funds for Siana project.


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## Fab (23 November 2007)

*RED*

I noticed this company being mentioned this week in the Eureka report as one of many potential takeover target company. I am wondering if someone has been following it and what are they doing exactly ??


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## Miner (24 November 2007)

If I could add : Last Saturday there was a big advertisement from RED (through a head hunterI in Wester Australia asking for a snr project manager for its plant engineering and set up by 2009. With normal standard such positions are asked at a reasonable closer time of execution.
It is a good sign. For example there are many exploration type companies like Poseidon who do not have any project manager visible.
With the price it is a good speculative buy. I am keeping watch for a low price to strike.

Regards


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## Fab (24 November 2007)

Indeed I see them as a good speculative buy. I bought SDL recently @0.13 and they did very well. I am looking for another one like that  Are they only a gold miner ? I think if Charlie Aiktens mentions them in the Eureka report as a potention takeover target they must be worth a look


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## Uncle Festivus (24 November 2007)

Fab said:


> Indeed I see them as a good speculative buy. I bought SDL recently @0.13 and they did very well. I am looking for another one like that  Are they only a gold miner ? I think if Charlie Aiktens mentions them in the Eureka report as a potention takeover target they must be worth a look




Fab, some data already posted in previous posts re what they mine and a reason for takeover; as well as having a look at the company website.
Summary - a lot of the ground work already done, need money to mine, could be swallowed up by neighbour eg Anglo America-PhilEx Joint Venture??


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## Uncle Festivus (28 November 2007)

Up over 110% since first post, but now looks to be in holding/consolidating mode since hitting resistance @15c. Some excellent grades from the recent drill holes, more to come. Resource upgrade potential.


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## Uncle Festivus (12 December 2007)

Update

30/11/07 - Substantial shareholder notice from CBA - 7.6%

Drilling to complete in Jan 08. Past results include 7 metres at 11.7g/t gold and 5.8% zinc.


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## alphman (18 February 2008)

Shares:  659,288,043
Last Sale:  $0.090 
Market Cap:  $59,335,924 
Cash:  $33,056,000 

*Siana Gold Project, Phillipines*

Resources: 6,263,000t @ 5.30g/t Au for 1,057,000oz Au (incl. 2,183,000oz Ag @ 8.6g/t)

EV/oz:  $24.86 (Au only)

Societe Generale CIB mandated for US$42m senior debt financing.  Equity financing completed with 350m shares issued at $0.10.  LOM cash costs for Siana Project is $309/oz based on approved "accelerated case" for initial 65,000oz+ open pit operation, increasing to 100,000oz+ with underground resource.  Currently drilling underground resource to 60% indicated status as required for debt draw down.  Results and updated resource statement due shortly.

From their quarterly report:


> The BFS estimates of the financial returns for Siana were based on gold and silver prices of US$650 and $13 per ounce respectively.  Since then precious metal prices have continued to increase.
> 
> At a price of US$850 per ounce of gold the pre-tax NPV (at 8%) is US$208M (an increase of 91%) with an internal rate of return of 83% (an increase of 73%).




Current spot prices for gold and silver are approximately $US$900 and US$17 respectively which should add more flavour to the project financials. Not sure what's holding this one back.  IMO, one of the cheapest goldies out there at this stage of the game.


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## cuttlefish (18 February 2008)

I think everyone will feel more comfortable when they actually hold the title to the project - the transfer from the old JV partner has been in the wings for quite a long time now and still isn't complete - still working through the bureacratic machinery.  (environmental approvals yet to be completed as well).


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## Uncle Festivus (18 February 2008)

Not withstanding a further marked deterioration in equity markets generally, I would not foresee a retest of the previous lows from Sept 07 around 7c, due to the advancement of the project and pm commodity fundamentals if anything. 9c has been a solid support level even without the current more favourable project status ie looks to be still heavily discounted?

We need the last few hurdles to be overcome as per cuttlefish and continuing support for the gold price, then she may be re rated. Those out of the money 10c'ers must have seen some upside for their investment, as long as they don't get cold feet and exit any time soon.


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## Uncle Festivus (18 April 2008)

The huge volumes can now be attributed to ANZ Nominees taking a 20% stake through Matthews by the looks. Not sure if that's good or bad with ANZ atm?
Something could be up with the permits as increased activity recently suggests? A Bollinger breakout perhaps?


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## Uncle Festivus (1 May 2008)

Progress continues, looks like title transfer a step closer. 



> Siana Gold project, philippines
> •  Title transfer to Merrill Crowe Corporation completed,
> transfer to Red 5 operating company in progress.
> •  Selected pre-development capital activities approved
> ...





> SociÃ©tÃ© GÃ©nÃ©rale bank syndicate provides indicative term
> sheet for Siana debt funding.
> 
> SociÃ©tÃ© GÃ©nÃ©rale Corporate and Investment Banking and three
> ...


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## Uncle Festivus (8 May 2008)

An update of the chart with some interest shown today, nice breakout?


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## MRC & Co (8 May 2008)

You lucky cat if you were onboard!  Unfortunately, I wasn't!  Was thinking of putting this in the bottom drawer, but already have 3 of those and don't really want anymore with the markets too strong at the moment, something has to give!  

Some resistance at 11.5 which was tested before failing so far today.


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## alphman (26 August 2008)

Number of shares: 659,288,043
Last Sale: $0.047

Market Cap: $30,986,538

Cash: $30,614,000


The market today has effectively valued the 1moz (yes, 1moz!) Siana Gold project at $350k.  *That's 35c/oz of gold*.  Ridiculous!  Absolutely ridiculous!  Who in their right state of mind would sell so close to the cash asset backing??????  


DYOR

http://www.red5limited.com/


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## alphman (10 September 2008)

One to watch guys.  Today's close of 3.8c gives RED a market cap of $25 million while their cash asset is 4.6c per share ($30 million).  Ridiculous.


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## Uncle Festivus (19 February 2009)

Some movement today on upgrade of resources.


> Underground Resource increased to 3.4 million tonnes at 7.1 g/t
> gold (0.77 million ounces) and 10.7 g/t silver (1.16 million ounces),
> up 11 percent.  Includes inaugural Indicated Resource category.
> Combined underground and open pit Resources now 6.7 million
> ...


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## big sal (8 April 2009)

RED’s 31 March 2009 announcement (excerpt below) was very positive but went relatively unnoticed (apart from initial spike to .059). Does show what potential the project has.

“Siana Ore Reserve doubles with
completion of underground mine study

Combined surface stockpile, open cut and underground
Probable Ore Reserve now 5.1 million tonnes at 4.3 g/t gold
(708,000 ounces) and 8.9 g/t silver (1.46 million ounces)
an increase of 105% by gold ounces over the previous
Reserve estimate”

One large sell went through this morning (15M shares @ .051 = $765K)


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## big sal (30 April 2009)

RED up 10% today to 6.6c on nice volume. More interest being shown and buyers (2.55m units) building v sellers (805K units).

The attached is taken from RED’s quarterly report out this morning:

“OVERVIEW
Siana Gold Project, Philippines
• Environmental Compliance Certificate awarded
• Associated documentation lodgement advanced (Declaration of Feasibility, Social Development and Management Programme, Environmental Protection and Enhancement Programme and Final Mine Rehabilitation and Decommissioning Plan)
• Ore Reserves doubled
– 5.1 Mt at 4.3 g/t gold (708,000 ounces) and 8.9g/t silver (1.46 million ounces)
– extend to 400 metres vertical (resource remains open to north, south, and below 500 metres)
• Long Term Mine Plan modelled
– assumes some Inferred Resource upgrade with further drilling and use of road headers to extract total of 6.5 Mt at 4.6g/t (975,000 ounces)
• Exploration drill result
– SMDD135 (3 metres at 31.6 g/t gold) at 220 metres vertical
received post resource data base cut-off date
• Bankable feasibility study
– documentation nearing completion
Mapawa MPSA
• MPSA grant and associated regulatory commitments
nearing completion
• Exploration programme and budget in preparation Finance and Corporate
• Net cash position $24.0 million (unaudited) at period close
• Discussion with project financiers to accelerate”


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## gustogristo (27 October 2009)

*RED 5*

hi  im new to the stocks game and would like to find out as much info as possible to make informed choices but dont know where to start. one of my mates has bought some red 5 limited shares code RED and said I should too unfortuanately i dont know anyone else in the know and would be apreciative if anyone could help


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## qldfrog (3 December 2009)

*Trading Halt?*

anyone knowing what is actually happening?
A share purchase plan?Or good news mining wise?
I saw a few last minute buy orders at 20c so expect some good news...
Any info welcome;

PS: I own RED


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## GumbyLearner (8 December 2009)

Has anyone plugged any Charlie Aitken ramps on this thread yet? I heard a rumour that Southern Cross like this one. :dunno:


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## F-P (8 December 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Has anyone plugged any Charlie Aitken ramps on this thread yet? I heard a rumour that Southern Cross like this one. :dunno:





Charlie is indeed a fan.  He recently posted a favourable review and sees the stock as having plenty of upside potential based on:


Production potential
Low operating costs
Valuation upside from the Mapawa prospect
High sensitivity to gold prices
Experienced management
Strong balance sheet position

Disclosure: I own RED 5 shares.


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## NextBigThing (11 December 2009)

Does anyone have some insight into this stock, next 2-3 months,

The stock price has diluted since the news of capital raising was announced.

Would appreciate any thoughts be it negative or positive


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## wanlad1 (14 January 2010)

*RED recent break out*

RED has now consolidated its recent break out for a few days and looks poised to make its move as per chart


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## dandd (5 March 2010)

Any new views on this stock?  Must be a disappointing price for those who bought in the capital raising.  I've been watching it for a while looking for a good entry point...


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## beatle (14 April 2010)

*RED - Ramification of MCC Acquisition*

Ramifications of MCC Acquisition

The announcement yesterday of RED acquiring Merrill Crowe Corporation (“MCC”) is one of THE greatest milestones achieved by RED over the past 12 months IMO. Whilst the broader market may not appreciate the subtleties of the acquisition, the ramifications are far-reaching and extremely positive:

1. Until this transaction occurred RED was not the registered owner of the Siana MPSA with the Philippines Mines Department. It had held its interest via a legal contract with MCC, its joint venture partner up until the acquisition. NOW RED holds the registration of the Siana MPSA IN ITS OWN RIGHT (via the subsidiary MCC).

2. RED has made all (100%) cash contributions (exploration plus development and budgeted for 100% of future capex) assuming it will get 90% equity in Siana – now it owns 100% of Siana via its Philippine corporate structure.

3. The project financing probably required RED to be the primary sponsor for 100% of debt funds despite it only getting 90% of cash flows, now RED gets 100%. Thus now on the debt side of funding the development at Siana RED has much stronger repayment and debt servicing capability. IF the project finance before was ever in any doubt, this acquisition will remove that doubt, and its more likely now with reasonably enhanced commercial terms.

4. Previously RED held 80% of Mapawa, now due to the acquisition of MCC RED owns 100% of Mapawa, and similarly previously held its interest via the joint venture with MCC, but now holds direct ownership via MCC subsidiary.
These points will all be considered substantially more favourable by banks wanting to fund the Siana development via the debt, and will similarly considerably enhance its attractiveness for investment by institutions otherwise concerned about ultimate ownership of Siana and Mapawa.

These changes will have a profound positive affect on RED for the future of mining activities as well, being its own boss in terms of how it develops the operations at Siana on a professional basis, without any interference from what otherwise would have been a joint venture partner (who has had no previous mining experience whatsoever).

Is the Acquisition Price Fair or Dilutionary?

I have looked at a number of differing gold price scenarios on a pre- and post-acquisition basis (in the range of US$1,000 – US$1,200, currency exchange rates $0.87 – $0.935) and can confirm that the acquisition price for just Siana alone at the increased equity is commercially more attractive to RED5 and the other shareholders of RED (each scenario provides an increase in NPV for RED), thus the acquisition is NOT DILUTIONARY.

IF Mapawa has any value attributed to it (currently no value is assigned in broker valuations of any significance) then the acquisition is a considerable plus, bearing in mind that its equity increases from 80% to 100% to RED.
IMO the only thing that has held RED back from achieving its indicated NPV for Siana has been the outstanding issues remaining to confirm development of the project. This announcement today removes the majority of that doubt about development, and yesterdays slightly positive share price move suggests it is likely to move further towards indicated NPV value. Based on the current gold price of US1,150 and $0.925 exchange rate, and with the changes in shares plus cash involved Siana value to RED share price equates to, based on 10% discount rate:-

33.5 cps

At the time of first production RED should trade ABOVE the indicated NPV valuation! (This happens to ALL gold producers with long life, low cost operations).

IF Mapawa shows promise, then value assigned to it will increase RED valuation beyond the indicated NPV valuation (of 33.5 cps currently). 
Thus the acquisition announced yesterday is very a very positive one, with a very acceptable cost to RED and removes any doubt about future development of Siana.

The ultimate owner of the 40 million shares clearly is another issue to be considered, but the fact that there are escrow provisions to the shares limits any immediate downward (ie selling)pressure on the share price, and clearly at a time when RED remains severely discounted to its DCF valuation, is unlikely to present any significant risk at this time or the intervening period up to production (or a significant re-rating in share price, whichever is the earliest event).


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## beatle (14 April 2010)

*RED - Huge Mapawa Intersection*

Mapawa

The first hole announced by RED for Mapawa is staggering, with a 189 metre intersection of 1.0 g/t!!! This is WAY above the grades normally encountered on these huge porphyry deposits that have made BIG money in the past for major companies. The value of these large gold-copper projects is valued in the billions, and usually well outside the reach of small market cap companies – if a small market cap companies identifies one then either it gets re-rated immediately, or will be the subject of a takeover by a major company! 

If you look at RED’s announcement re Mapawa and consider the big porphyry operations currently in production such as Batu Hijau you will realize that these are the THE BIG money earners for major companies:

Batu Hijau (48.5 % beneficial interest to Newmont). Newmont has just sold 7% of equity in the project for US$247 million (1% = A$38 million at an exchange rate of 92.5 cents!!!). 

Batu Hijau 2009 production forecast to produce 500 million pounds of copper and 525,000 ozs gold, and was amongst Newmont’s lowest cost producing assets.

Batu Hijau (last published resources) total 1.01 billion tonnes at 0.37 g/t Au, 0.48% Cu.

Cadia (100% Newcrest, NCM).
NCM has just announced development of Cadia East, at an estimated capex of A$1.9 billion, to produce annually around 700,000 – 800,000 ozs gold and 75,000 – 100,000 tonnes of copper for the first 10 years of production, with cash operating cost around A$100/oz!!!

Cadia resources total 2.347 billion tonnes at 0.44 g/t Au, 0.28% Cu.

Potential for Mapawa:

The geophysical anomaly delineated by RED for Mapawa has a diameter of 900 metres, and commences at a depth below about 150 metres vertical. The first hole has confirmed that the anomaly points to a porphyry lithology that is analogous to the mineralized Boyongan prospect owned by Philex (where in excess of 100 million tonnes of likely economically viable resources exist and are now in the process of an economic feasibility study). Above this anomaly at Mapawa, there is an established resource (drilled by Suricon to a depth of 100 – 120 metres) that indicates a gold enriched resource totaling around 3 – 4 million tonnes grading 1.5 – 2.5 g/t Au is likely – this will be an extremely high grade sweetener to any large gold/copper processing facility being developed by RED for Mapawa.

Of the 900 metre diameter target zone to a large deep mineralized porphyry, the first hole has intersected above average porphyry  gold ore grade mineralization to a depth of 450 metres. This suggests that the potential for a large mineralized porphyry, of grades analogous to Batu Hijau and Cadia is possible, with tonnage around 500 million tonnes possible. 

As a back of the envelope calculation (and subject to many other considerations and skeptical critics!) to keep things in perspective with the value assumed for 7% of Batu Hijau (and assuming development cost at 50% of Cadia development, say A$1 billion for Mapawa), this would suggest that Mapawa valuation has the potential to be ascribed at something like:

“Back-Of-The-Envelope” Valuation for Mapawa when developed A$38m/2 per 1% = A$1.9 billion (ie assume total Mapawa resource 50% of Batu Hijau)
Less Capex A$1.0 billion

Net value to RED (100%) = $900 million

ie 91 cps

To be conservative if we DISCOUNT this value by 90% to this potential we get 9 cps

Thus RED valuation potential:

Siana			34 cps
Mapawa		  9 cps (90% discount)
Other Cash	  	  2 cps
Total RED Value		45 cps


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## beatle (14 April 2010)

Share volume for RED has been extremely high, and very pleasing, based on the move upwards 2.5 cents from 16.5 cents to 19.0 cents, with just 15 minutes to go. It demonstrates that bigger insto's and large traders are now on board, but the irony is that IF those selling considered what has just been announced to the market regarding Mapawa, they may regret their disposal of shares.

Currently RED is completely discounted, about 50%, of the indicated discounted cash flow basis, for the Siana gold project (around 1 million ozs production to be produced over a 10 year life span with a low US$351/0z operating cost). Indicated share value based on Siana alone is 33.5 cents based on the current gold price and exchange rate.

Mapawa, based on the first hole, has demonstrated its potential to grow into a huge porphyry project, with potential to be a major low cost producer, maybe of many millions of ozs of gold, based on the first hole and the indication that the second hole is similarly heavily mineralised and at a similar depth (and more visible sulphides logged on that second hole) to the first hole. That suggests that the porphyry system is large and likely to hold a large bulk tonnage of good gold grade ore. It has already been described as such by RED in a prior announcement to the ASX, referring to "The anomaly
has characteristics typical of many porphyry style (bulk tonnage)
mineral systems." in the announcement of 25 Jan 2010, and that there is a large sulphide component, with "The diorite hosts variable quartz veining and sulphide mineralization, predominantly pyrite but also minor zinc, lead and copper sulphides."

It suggests to me that Mapawa could in fact become the centre of attention of investors soon, with the announcement of the second hole assays in about 2 weeks, and the third hole being targeted to a depth of 800 - 1,000 metres! And the fact that RED is about ready to announce the project financing for Siana suggests that there is plenty of positive news in the pipeline that could push the share price way above its highly discounted 19 odd cents today.

The attention on Mapawa is likely to draw the interest of gold-copper majors, and with RED being highly discounted at present may become an attractive target by various resource groups!


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## morton_mains (14 April 2010)

Hi beatle. Found ya! I was waiting for your return to you know where!
I haven't time to digest your posts as its gone midnight here, anyway here's my comments posted tonight, i do agree Mapawa has a stunning feel to it: <quote

MAGIC!
I'm still learning but the grade and length appear most attractive. It's deep but don't forget the channel sampling down to there may provide something to work with as the diggers get down to that level!

I didn't think porpheries had this grade of gold but from research i found the whole province has had stunning historic recoveries in 1930's. Todays's ann. is VERY exciting for the company and is manna coming out of the blue sky we had talked about....think about it..this is either another discovery or it will will used at Siana to greatly extend its LOM!!!

Volumes today have changed the character of RED... lines of 2.5m and at one stage 3m with traded vol of 22m and placing it at #19 on the ASX today means its finally getting the attention it deserves. As I posted previously the SP had "broken out" ahead of time from leaking as has happened with this before. The recent increases over 2 Fibonacci lines have also added to the momentum.

The market liked the ann... as ASX:GOLD was down(!) 0.6% we can assume that the 2c price increase is fully due to Mapawa, which equates to an increase in market cap of $18m that we attribute to this ann. Not bad for 2 drill holes of which only one has declared grades! 

This is evidence that the market is pricing Mapawa it as another mini gold company already!

But as we have discussed before, VERY conservative fundamentals still justify an SP in mid-late 20's excluding Mapawa!!

Todays ann., the positive no surprise management, the steady progress, a fully capitalised and (about-to-be) debt funded operation, a mkt cap at $175m knocking on the $200m threshold some instos may have, ... all factors will assure further price appreciation before cashflow generation starts 2010.

Happy shareholder, overweighted in RED.
>>


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## beatle (15 April 2010)

Hi Morton_Mains, very happy to see your post, and by the way I am trying to work out why I am banned so please feel free to copy/paste anything I say here to anywhere else you see fit (hmmm!).

I agree with you, that the volumes are fantastic and I can only say that my thoughts previously about a share price mid-30's is now long gone, its going a LOT higher!

The reason why the price increase yesterday I believe is due to the main insto's involved are trying to work it along slowly, for a few particular longer term objectives - they want to wear out any longer term holders plus any smaller parcels by short sighted insto's at current levels. But I think the main consideration is that there are now another 40 million shares due to be issued soon, and whether they are longer term holders is questionable - maybe the main insto thinks they can take them out around current prices if they are patient. As a result I think you will see a bit more of the playing games with the share price before advancing further, but as was demonstrated yesterday that there are BIG guys in there now so the weight of considerable funds being interested will push this much higher in the short term even!

I agree that the porphyry grade of gold is excellent but actually characteristic of this province, and is a good omen for the future holes. Seems to me that if we get another good hole announced in the next 2 weeks (hole 2 as RED suggest) then maybe the price will naturally move up a lot more soon!

I did notice also, via a copy of the RED announcement that was forwarded with a message by the Chairman of RED, his comment ...."Folks, The first hole at Mapawa delivers economic grades by typical porphyry deposit standards, and with elevated gold which could attract the attention of gold majors as well as the base metal majors."

This is quite an apt point, that it could attract the gold/base metals majors, and if that occurs then there might be some very interesting positions being taken by large companies. In that regard, "Tokyo's" prior observation about the Chinese being a possible buyer of RED is very relevant - remember that Tokyo first pointed us RED observers to the fact that the biggest gold producer in china had moved into Philippines looking for acquisitions, and within about 1 week had announced the deal with Tampakan! So Tokyo's comments are more interesting now with Mapawa a real project!

As i said above Morton-Main, please feel free to distribute anything I post more widely if you think its relevant, especially the post about the acquisition of Merrill Crowe Corporation, which must be considered very positive going forward!
Regards
Beatle


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## beatle (15 April 2010)

RED share price looks weak today, then all of a sudden there are 13.5 million odd shares traded at 1.5 cents down from yesterday. It was a cross sale, so that means maybe a big holder putting them into a more suitable associated entity. I wouldn't be surprised to see the share price strengthen now, clearly that buyer/seller was setting up the market for that cross trade!

In the short term I can see RED moving back up, no one in their right mind will allow a company, with a DCF on its Siana project of 33.5 cps, and now with Mapawa (valued at anything upward of 9cps) plus excess cash 2 cps (ie total value now about 44.5 cents) languish at 18 cents for too long - there are too many reasons now why RED will be moving up in a hurry, soon!


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## auscan (15 April 2010)

Beatle .. what's your opinion on the copper % for Mapawa?

Is it on the low side, but still good enough to be a bonus when combined with the gold levels? or not even that significant of a per centage?


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## beatle (15 April 2010)

Hi Auscan, good to hear from you (I'm blo*** Pi**** off after what that other crowd did - I was on a trip overseas and used a number of different internet cafes to access my account and then I get accused of having duplicate accounts!).

The gold grade was a complete (pleasant) surprise to me - although as was pointed out by Morton_Main it seems to be characteristic of this part of the general surigao province, and boyongan is similarly high in gold.

If you look at the copper grade, yes its lower than a lot of porphyries, but still will amount to some significant copper output (of course depending upon whether this first hole is indicative of the whole deposit and also if the metallurgy is suitable - which is likely to be ok since boyongan has no issues with metallurgy) - Based on the annual throughput rates envisaged for such a large tonnage ore deposit. (If you think about it, at an annual rate of say 10 mtpa it amounts to contained copper of around 17,000 tonnes, and assuming 90% recovery, is reasonably large from a revenue point of view at around current price of US$3.60/lb ie 0.9 x 17,000 x 2,200 x 3.6/0.93 = A$130million pa!!!).

Its also important to note that the second hole is not aimed at evaluating the heart of the deposit, but actually aimed at testing the limits of the deposit - this also is confirmed with the comment in the announcement that there is an increased level of sulphides (assumed to be pyrite) so this gold grade of this second hole may not be as great since its on the margins - typically these porphyry deposits are zoned outwards, with a lower grade pyritic zone marginal to the orebody, so if the grade in the second hole is lower this is not necessarily meaning that there is no scope for the deposit, it just means it has defined the limit to the higher grade zone!

The third hole probably is a more important test of the tonnage potential, due to the targetting of the deposit at depth below the first discovery hole. And as I have mentioned before, its phenomenal to think that RED has found such strong gold mineralisation in the first hole, its a real indication of potential. 

(BTW, note that there are a number of other porphyries in the Siana MPSA as well, and Madja will probably get more of a look at now, both with this first success as well as RED having more money to spend on the exploration).

I would also appreciate you informing all on that other thingo, IF you see it worthwhile, for the comments I make in previous posts here, regarding the acquisition of Merrill Crowe Corporation, its a REAL plus for RED, but no one seems to have really seen it as positive. In fact its probably the biggest coup of all! (And I am not seeking any attribution to your post, I just want everyone know that is a great result for us at RED).

Regards
Beatle


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## auscan (15 April 2010)

thanks for that informative reply

all of your recent/previous posts have been copied to the dark side already


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## beatle (15 April 2010)

Thanks Auscan (I can't even get on that site now to check what anyone else posts, each time I log on they have put some sort of bait (or worm?) that tries to get into my computer and my virus checker boots me out! - I'm not sure what they are attempting to do is legal or not!) .

I believe that RED value really should be re-considered now for the potential at Mapawa, and it might be the carrot of Mapawa that tempts some bigger players to consider RED as a real takeover play - I assume that any interested corporates would be waiting for the next couple of holes, and in particular if the third hole confirms similar grades then RED could surge in a couple of days, by much more than a few cents each time! Today I reckon the insto's were playing games with smaller fish trying to tempt out any loose shares.


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## auscan (15 April 2010)

Interesting times are definitely ahead for RED in the near future, and with very little downside .. if any

Its taken them a long time to line it all up, but they seem to have finally achieved most admin / finance requirements to take the big step up to producer.

If Mapawa can live up to its initial exploration success, that it is one sweet bonus at a VERY opportune time. 

Lets hope the positive momentum continues ..


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## morton_mains (15 April 2010)

beatle; yes the MCC ann. got me thinking enough to do more research on coy structures (confusing) and then to ring co for 1st time on one particular feature the other night

I understand they want to keep the restructure low key..they are very respectful towards all parties and cultures concerned in-country.....on the matter u indicated of the 40m shares I don't see this as being a problem - the MCC party has sizable cash to enjoy and you will find person involved there (from desktop research on internet anyhow!) is smart enough to know the full value of the shares will accrue over time so won't be dumping anytime soon.

RED as you correctly point out the quality of the tenament ownership has increased, RED gets more % and also must now contribute more to capex!

Still good...but its still not running hard enough to fund me back into ORE


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## beatle (16 April 2010)

The biggest frustration with RED for me (and I'm sure for many others, especially the long term holders) continues to be the very slow build up in price at times even when they put out mind-blowing announcements like the past few days. It appears that the big backers much prefer to see a gradual move up, and from my observations I wouldn't be surprised to see that the big buyers remain as the big cappers to any significant movements upwards! (I think I would have a different tactic, lol!).

With regard to MCC, yes RED do have to fund more of the capex etc, but in fact have been doing so all along (also the other activities such as exploration) but now they get the benefits with regard to the revenue. I'm encouraged by your view Morton_Mains about the vendors of MCC shares that they won't consider a sell down any time soon, and of course are constrained any how with the escrowment of shares (and money it seems). 

I hope that the MCC acquisition will speed up the project finance announcement, due out soon, and this must become the turning point for the share price to move up on a continual basis until at least the DCF valuation of Siana, with the add-on value of Mapawa of who knows how much, to push it up as results become available for holes 2 onwards. Lets hope that RED does put out an explanation of the exploration strategy with these early holes that clearly spells out their aim of trying to delineate the high grade zonation to the porphyry, as without that some less technically informed investors might make the wrong assessment that its a pup when its in fact an adult great dane!

Anyone please have it noted that I hope to meet up with the long termers planning to be at the mine opening next year, for a re-union of us all. (Of course provided we get an invite! - I hope Anderbond still plans to be there). (OF course I would also like to catch up with the newer investors, including Yuyu (I'd like to hear his thoughts regarding his Nissan racer!).


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## beatle (16 April 2010)

RE: Anglo Ceasing to be a shareholder in RED5

Well the cynics may well say that anyone who puts a positive spin on a major selling out of a stock is full of bull. Here goes my bull.. :

Anglo moving out of RED is a fantastic result for RED and its shareholders!!! 

Anyone who has read my previous posts on another site, would know that I have been a continuing outspoken critic of Anglo in RED, for the particular reason that they have held out for a slice of Mapawa due to the opportunistic situation it was able to establish at a time when RED was well and truly a minnow without the capability to finance the ongoing development and exploration at Siana and beyond. That time has well and truly passed, and RED has no need for Anglo sweating on past "strategic alliances" announcements that didn't deliver a dime to RED for some sweetheart deal for Anglo in Mapawa. 

All along Anglo was just hanging out its hope to retain a cheap entry into Mapawa, and probably (but I have no proof of this) with the threat of it dumping its shareholding in RED as an issue for RED to manage.

The former "strategic alliance" RED announced a number of years ago was actually one of the biggest skeletons left in the old junior RED IMO, and to know that RED is now completely off the hook with Anglo is great news. That means any future deal on Mapawa is not constrained by that past deal, and maybe the removal of Peter Rowe as a director a couple of weeks ago was the writing on the wall for Anglo in RED (Rowe was formerly a big wig in Anglo). 

Now Mapawa is all of a sudden left to its own merits and value, and RED will get its best return based on that outcome. Remembering all along that Anglo under the proposed alliance was only ever going to get involved in the event that Mapawa was a huge project, ie it effectively negotiated a cushy put option with minimal downside risk outside of spending a few hundred thousand on the first couple of drillholes at Mapawa. Now RED has ALL the upside (AND MORE with the acquisition of MCC).

I believe that Anglo leaving the shareholder list is a great longer term outcome for RED!!!

And the fact that Anglo was able to sell down its shareholding so easily whilst the share price was on an UP is a real positive indeed for RED going forward.


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## anderbond (16 April 2010)

G day Beatle, thought I might join you on this site as through a couple of HC contributors have realised you are still actively posting which is wonderful news! I just returned from a trip to Japan so have been a little out of things.
I completely agree with your points made in respect of Anglo, in fact I was a bit staggered to realise last year they were still in there so it is great to see them go. Also your other points in respect of RED moving to 100% ownership of everything is as you say much more than a tidy up of ownership structures as in the announcement. It all highlights the conservative approach of our management which is good I guess. One thing that blew me away was the references made by management about Mapawa in the drill hole announcement to other projects. I could not believe that Greg would do this on the basis of the work done to date, so I firmly believe he must be very confident about where it will all go. I remember discussing Mapawa with him when I spent a couple of days there a while back and it is fair to say he was excited about Mapawa then, so here we go lets hope! Also it is my intention to be part of the fun there if we get an invite. Even without one I would like to be there to celebrate! Thanks for most informative and incisive thinking Beatle, it is much appreciated. AB


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## beatle (17 April 2010)

Great to read your post Anderbond, and of course we have many common views regarding RED. (I'm quite peed off about not being able to post elsewhere but I have a feeling someone on another thread who has kept getting many of my other posts moderated and suspending me unnecessarily has some significant pulling power on that site, its a shame as otherwise it is a good site with a large following of good posters especially with RED but clearly has some political bias!). From my short time posting here there seems to be much more reasonable and fair latitude to make comment as in a democratic system, although the number of posters is clearly considerably less, maybe over time it will improve!

I agree that the last time BEFORE the drilling that I spoke with GE he was very excited about the size and intensity of the geophysical anomaly at Mapawa, and since that time AFTER RED got an idea of the gold grades (but before it was announced) it seemed even CJ was a bit more open open about discussing bulk gold tonnages (I wish I had picked up on that earlier!).

Now though, from my reading of the announcements and also a quick discussion with GE he is more guarded about hole 2, particularly as I have outlined in a previous post here, that it may well be in the lesser gold mineralised pyritic zone usually found typically in the outer alteration zones found in porphyries such as this is. But since the hole was targeted to establish the limits and is actually positioned at right angles to the first hole, any lower grades (and lesser thickness of mineralisation) is not altogether negative, but just confirming the limits to the extent of mineralisation (but on the other hand it went about 100 metres past its original planned depth, so GE might be playing his cards close to his chest!). Unfortunately RED is demonstrating its conservatism in the method of going about the drilling trying to establish limits to the mineralisation rather than to continue to drill pin cushion style that works much better for company share prices but doesn't quickly give an idea of size (cf with ROL that has used the first few holes to drive the price up very high and raise money at fantastic prices - I haven't followed ROL in its more recent drilling though!). (The vector drilling strategy that RED is employing is how Boyongan was approached in its early days by Anglo American and I suggest has more to do with maximising drilling efficiency for the longer term than to get the share price up in a hurry!).

Its a shame that the gold price dropped so significantly last night, so I guess we are going to have many ups and downs over the course of the next months whilst RED bed down the finance etc, but lets hope when they have to put that debt facility the gold price is reasonable (whilst not called such, they basically have an old gold loan facility being offered to them by Deutsche).

(BTW I suggest that some of the things I have posted here would not be suitable on the other site so best not to copy it there!).
I intend to keep posting here since the other group say that they are doing an investigation as to whether I have been using duplicate accounts which is clearly just a reason to suspend me for as long as it suits them! (Its like being in a communist country where there is no free speech!).


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## beatle (19 April 2010)

A few points to consider with things that have happened over the past weeks with RED:
1. Anglo has sold down 14 odd million shares. That is a positive for RED IMO as it removes an obstruction to any serious major company that may want to do a deal with RED on todays commercial terms for JV's (on Mapawa) or takeover based on the "new normal" - JiZin for instance, the huge Chinese mining group that has taken over Tampakan and has indicated its interest in getting more Philippine based resources will be amongst that group. (I understand that at least 1 company has already approached RED with an expression of interest out of the blue (RED is not seeking any JV on Mapawa).

2. Mapawa grade, at 1.0 g/t is HUGE!!! IF Mapawa is to be developed, unless there are differences to it than at any other porphyry style mineralisation it will be developed as a huge open pit, it would not be developed as an underground. Note that grades in the top zone have already been drilled by Suricon with indications of grades in the 1.5 - 2.5g/t range, thus it has fantastic likelihood of being developed as economic proposition with ore grades at surface ie unlikely to be handicapped by large overburden pre-strip that was an issue with Boyongan when it was assessed for development a couple of years ago (but since then commodities prices have risen appreciably so its more likely to be economically viable now - Philex the owner of Boyongan would do well to consider a JV with RED to co-develop a large project consisting of Boyongan and Mapawa, of course, IF Mapawa continues to prove its mineralisation extends beyond 1 hole!).
(Hole 2 at Mapawa is not expected to be as good as hole 1, but hole 3 is a biggy!).

3. Project finance for Siana development is due any time soon. When that is finalised, that should be the trigger to a re-rating of RED based on valuation solely of Siana (which suggests at current gold price ~33 cents cps). With upside of Mapawa the current RED valuation is around 45 cps.

4. The ups and downs of the market and commodity price will also have its effect on RED, but this should be to a lesser extent when the market is assured that Siana development is underway with debt finance approved.
This likelihood has been increased with the recent acquisition of Merrill Crowe Corporation, increasing equity of Siana by RED and its employees to 100% (also Mapawa from 80% --> 100%) and ensuring ownership of each MPSA is now under RED control.

Soon it should be up up and away!


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## anderbond (19 April 2010)

Hi Beatle, I see that it appears Anglo has not yet exited but continues to hold a little less than 5%. Hopefully they will exit in full soon. I also see gold took a hit late last week, but I am not concerned about that as I do not believe this has too much bearing on RED at this stage, but of course will be more important as matters move on. Moreover, in another report I receive daily, it appears that a heck of a lot of shorting in gold(and silver) takes place constantly attributed to three or four of the big US investment banks. No one seems to really understand why, although the conspiracy theorists believe there may be a connect somehow through to the US government. But still no answer as to actually why this seems to happen. The fundamentals for gold remain very positive so I simply shrug these things off. I was interested to read your comments re the second drill hole at Mapawa, and GE's more circumspect approach. As you point out, the conservatism of RED management and drilling approach is not designed to try to make the market get overly excited. But the first hole results and comparisons drawn by management to other projects are very very significant imo. The third hole will help delineate more of what we have got. In the meantime, Siana is proceeding well by the looks of it, and I expect the announcement re the financing deal cannot be far away. AB


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## beatle (19 April 2010)

Hi Anderbond, yes I agree with you that it will be good if Anglo get out completely, and of course we won't now know if/when that happens as they don't have to report any further sell downs as they are no longer a substantial holder - they may well have sold more in the past days! I am much more comfortable with them out - in fact when the original JV deals proposed (but never consummated with Anglo) I was an outspoken critic of the outlined deals (outspoken directly to GE and he took exception to my comments at that time) as it really gave them a cheap "put option" into Mapawa. (Its just as well the MPSA was not granted at that time IMO).

As for your comments about gold price, etc, I do hope that the gold price will be in the current range as it does affect general investment sentiment, and also at the time of putting in place the debt there will be a selling of gold (totalling US$15 million, ie ~13,200 ozs gold) as part of the facility if it remains structured the way it was originally offered to RED). Once the debt is bedded down then its all about getting on with the development, and I'm sure that as project activity heats up then that will arouse many others aware of that activity! (I would love to closely scrutinise the share trades at that time to see how/who it affects the market for RED shares).

With Mapawa, I believe that  GE (and CJ for that matter) is quite confident that RED has got a huge bulk gold deposit in the making, but will be careful  until some of the next holes are drilled and assayed. But the danger with  hole 2 is that if it is not so great (as expected to be the case based on typical zonation of porphyries) it could create a deal more angst with certain investors who seemed to have got involved more because of the Mapawa story, rather than Siana which is worth so much already. 

I think we have all found RED to be less market savvy than other spruikers who like to turn a successful hole into a gold mine in its own right! While its good to be conservative and careful with the work, there is nothing wrong with taking advantage of hype in the market place!


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## beatle (19 April 2010)

Wise_Owl Recommendation.

I understand that Wise_Owl investment magazine has recommended a Hold on RED to its investor base, with an update to its previous Buy recommendation some time back.

Its good to get another completely independent group such as Wise_Owl to put out such a recommendation.


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## anderbond (20 April 2010)

Beatle, I agree that it is great to see Wise-Owl continuing to support the stock. However they have dropped their recommendation back, presumably to reflect the increase in the SP. I know Wise-Owl previously recommended the stock which you will recall got some daily press coverage (last year sometime) but I cannot recall what the price was at that time. I would love to know the latest recommendation from Southern Cross as they have previously been strong supporters. AB


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## beatle (20 April 2010)

Anderbond, Wise-Owl first recommended RED as a BUY on 20 Sept 2009, and the closing price just prior to that recommendation (18 Sept) was 11 cents (Open 10.5/Low10.5/Hi11.5). At that time their 12 month price target was 19.0 cents (so they got that right, but oh so low an estimate in my view!).

Southern Cross Equities (SCE) is interesting. It has been clearly spelt out that SCE brought clients into the latest placement (I think more from the London side), and we all got that following investment advice (Jenesequoi I think must be tied up with SCE as he knew about it before most others) with a 12 month outlook forecasting 27.0 cents. But that was some time back, and I feel as though SCE placees in the prior ($35.0 million placement made in 2007) placement have slowly lost their interest, and maybe they have also been dropping shares (bearing in mind that placement was allotted 350 million shares at that time) more recently. I think there were a few different changes to the people at SCE in the research area, which has hampered the following research (but I might be wrong on this).

I think it would be good for a few other groups to start following the story, and I guess this can only be done with the news coming out of Mapawa, and once RED wants to pursue this. I have a feeling though that Petra Securities has done a good job of keeping their clients (wholesale investors) updated, but it needs a bigger push on the retail broking front IMO to get the price moving much higher - but RED don't really have any need to do that at this time, they are more interested in getting the project activities advanced.


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## anderbond (20 April 2010)

Hi Beatle, I agree that the focus by management should be on getting into production, so it is still very early days when it is all said and done. I am encouraged by the success of the CR earlier this year, and the fact that the final piece will be announced soon. I am of course referring to the finance package. I see that MML is moving positively again. GD seems to have the knack of obtaining the market's attention, and I see they are now moving to list on the main London board. However, we know that RED is now supported by a good number of institutional investors, so it is only a matter of time. Perhaps Mapawa is the key to lighting the fuse! By the way, are you favourably disposed to SIH? AB


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## anderbond (21 April 2010)

Good morning Beatle, I have learned this morning that Lance Govey has been appointed as Chief Executive Officer of Triton Gold effective from April 6th. Having spent the past 8 years at Red as Director - Technical, and with the state of play with Red, I am to say the least staggered by the news.I thought I would as if you were aware of this? What do you make of it? Has there been dissension in the ranks or is it just a normal job change? Your thoughts and any comments will be much appreciated. AB


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## fatsoh (21 April 2010)

hi beatle

agree, anglo have been of no use to RED's cause - won't bother me to see them exit, as will give us some time to collect some more at these levels - only 40 odd mill to go - lol


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## beatle (21 April 2010)

Great to hear from some of my old mates here, shame I can't post in HC but at least its good to be able to keep in touch through the goodness of ASF! (HC by comparison might have a bigger following, but when you take into consideration the moderating bias factor on HC I believe that ASF is miles better - there's nothing better than free speech provided its within the realms of the subject and not defamatory or other!)

Regarding your comments and queries:-

Anderbond:
1. Yes I have spoken with Lance since he left RED and started at Triton. I was concerned that if he knew more about Mapawa that it could imply he didn't have a high regard for its future (knowing that many geologists like to be associated with big new discoveries, so I thought it could mean Mapawa had no potential). 

Firstly you have to recognise that Lance is not a young man (I think he's about 57 years of age), and having spent 8 years in Philippines he has been slowly drained of enthusiasm for such places!

Also recognise that Lance made the decision to leave RED in January, and he had just prior been on a holiday to the Mediterranean, his first real break from work for a few years - sometimes those sorts of breaks impact on ones attitude and outlook.

Lance told me that he had not formed a view of the potential of Mapawa other than to say that the geophysical anomaly was exceedingly large and clearly from the first hole had demonstrated the right rocks (similar to Boyongan poyphyry), but it was now just time and drilling that would confirm whether it would become the big daddy that we all hope for. He also confirmed that he had no intention of selling his shares and thought they were considerably under-valued, even if Mapawa didn't stack up - but that Mapawa could well stack up in its own right.

Lance is the CEO of Triton, and he is back with an old mate of his from CSR days (30 odd years ago), so the move across to the key management position within the company must have been very tempting, and also that all the projects are WA based where his home is. 

Lance didn't have any negative comments about RED or the people or the project, but that he had enough of travel and was looking forward to settling back into WA.

2. As for GD and MML, IMO its a reflection of a more pro-active marketing approach, but also MML is benefiting from it already being a producer. You have to give credit to GD for his PR which is first class, and even though GD and others (Councilgritter esp) has confirmed that MML will never consider a tie-up with RED its one of those opportunities to take advantage of the differential between a company in production with a share price premium and a soon to start producer with a huge discount. MML IMO could really benefit by such a merger for the longer term, but clearly egos and motivation are very hard to merge as well, Lol!

Unlike MML, you also must recognise with RED that both Siana and Mapawa will enjoy a tax holiday for the first half of its indicated start-up time at the time of the final submission of each project to the Dept - that means Siana gets at least a 5 year tax holiday (in the feasibility work RED allowed for only 4 year tax holiday), and with Mapawa possibly developing into a separate gold development it could possibly have a huge tax-free period (potentially of more than 10 years!). Only new MML projects outside of its current production area are able to attain that tax free holiday.

3. As for SIH, I have done a fair amount of work on this previously and personally I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole if you intend to invest for a longer term period. Clearly its share price is showing signs of moving north currently but its a dog IMO. (I believe that a couple of brokers are being approached currently to try to raise more money and increase profile of the company). The issues for me are mainly technical, and there are some practical issues related to access within parts of the COW as well, and note also that its stuck up the top of a mountain (up about 1 km in height) with pristine jungle close by (previously located within a proposed national park boundary), but I won't say more than this (other than to say beware the spivs!). 

Remember also that SIH has to pay 100% of all exploration AND 100% of development capex to get 75% beneficial interest, with Antam only paying its owed amount to SIH on the basis of 80% out of free cash flows from production - that means SIH must pay out another say US$60 plus million to get 75% interest and it simply won't work with banks nowadays, especially with repayments impacted by cash flows from Antam as well. And consider what that will do to the shares on issue (currently 490 million) - if you think RED has had a long gestation then SIH will be much longer and much harder with no guarantee it will ever get to final feasibility due to some technical factors that are BIG issues! 

BTW I suggest that HC has some interesting posters on the SIH site though (I think that one of them has accused me of having multiple accounts on HC which is why I am suspended from HC, so its close to the bone with me as well!).

Fatsoh:

I believe that Anglo may have sold some more shares than those indicated, but since it doesn't have to make any more announcements we won't even know about it now (provided the complete sell out occurs before the next update of the Top 20 in the annual I guess). I believe that Anglo threw their hands up when they realised they had no chance of getting a cheap entry into Mapawa along the lines of the earlier JV proposals. And with Peter Rowe off the board clearly the board didn't have any reason to honour a previous proposal that didn't ever get full agreement from both sides. I was an outspoken critic to RED early on when the Anglo deal was first proposed, so I was always concerned about it being a legacy of the time when RED had no cash and was dependent on a bigger corporate for financial support. Now that is not a relevant consideration. 

With Anglo out of the way there is more chance to have other corporates take an interest - Anglo with a substantial holding could have bought more to pursue a blocking strategy if Mapawa really heats up - bearing in mind that Mapawa has the potential to absolutely dwarf Siana despite Siana being worth around 33 cps to RED.

As for share overhang, I don't think its an issue with the ensuing debt finance announcement expected out soon. I believe that the insto's will be falling over themselves to take more shares once the development is on its way with all funding established. 

As for getting some more at current levels, I wish I could but I actually bought a stack more when the acquisition of MCC was announced, as I think its the best bit of news we have had about RED - although first hole of Mapawa was a real blessing!

Thats my view anyway.


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## Miner (21 April 2010)

beatle said:


> Regarding your comments and queries:-
> 
> Anderbond:
> 1. Yes I have spoken with Lance since he left RED and started at Triton. I was concerned that if he knew more about Mapawa that it could imply he didn't have a high regard for its future (knowing that many geologists like to be associated with big new discoveries, so I thought it could mean Mapawa had no potential).
> ...




Excellent naration and very good insight.

Now on a serious mood if I am not offending any one  I thought 57 years is the right age for a westerner man to be at Phillipine and make money and enjoy life. Amercian soldiers have left the country long back but the legacy stays. 

Seriious side, hardly any young man below 40 will be interested to stay in Phillipine for 8 years and that is fact of life. Why Lance left RED is primarily would be for different reasons and he is privy not to disclose that to others. So I will judge RED on its merit. 

The EPCM has been awarded and HotCopper is onto it. That means this could be another BCC - day traders' game. 

I could be wrong or biased so DYOR.
DNH .


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## anderbond (21 April 2010)

Highly knowledgable and highly informative stuff. Thanks Beatle, you are an absolute gem. One more, any thoughts on TON? I must admit though , RED is such a no brainer and so undervalued that playing with anything else does not have much attraction. I am sitting on some holdings in a range of promising exploration stocks including THX,WPG, MEO/MOG, & IAU  waiting for a good enough SP to sell but starting to wonder if I should just exit them to increase my RED stake further right now before the SP goes higher. The point being that there seems to be far more near term leverage with RED notwithstanding some fairly exciting news coming from the others. Diversification and risk management have their place I know, but ?? AB


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## beatle (22 April 2010)

Miner:   …
”…Now on a serious mood if I am not offending any one I thought 57 years is the right age for a westerner man to be at Phillipine…” – I just want to clarify and get it well understood that there certainly was no intention or reason for me to have a go at people at that age or older (I am also of that vintage, or maybe a little bit older, Lol!).

…”… Why Lance left RED is primarily would be for different reasons and he is privy not to disclose that to others.…”. I don’t disagree with you Miner that why Lance left is not a public matter, and I’m sure that Anderbond would agree also, but in a company where the Executive Directors are so important to have advanced the project over the years it is a natural thing for us as long term shareholders to wonder whether it is a sign of some RED issue. 

In my summary I think I made it clear (or at least I attempted to) that there doesn’t seem to be any reason related to issues at RED that could be drawn from his leaving (and in particular no indication of a split of personalities or anything related to Mapawa potential). 

Anderbond:
I agree with you that RED is a very unique investment opportunity from a technical valuation perspective, although its also frustrating that it remains so discounted, and that there are many other good resource performers (in the eyes of the market) that have out-performed RED in recent times, some of which actually appear to have inferior project potential, but more successful for whatever reason. BUT maybe we just haven’t seen the best of RED yet. 

It has also created a dilemma for me, since I am so convinced about its likely future standout performance that it creates a dilemma to maintain a balance to my share portfolio (that supposed to provide less overall risk). I have in fact added with more RED to my portfolio by culling others that don’t have as much potential or have gone backwards, and so far RED has done me a favour! (And as we know, there are always potential risks in any resources company, even BHP is not immune to the odd risk – for instance commodity price risk, individual project risk etc). 

As for the companies that you mention, to be honest I have not followed any of them in any detail recently to give a good critique of them, and that demonstrates that there are many other companies out there with the potential to be star performers that I haven’t identified yet. With regard to Triton (TON), until I found out that Lance had moved to that company I hadn’t even heard of it! Its Salmon Gums project, within that Albany-Fraser block made famous by Tropicana clearly has lots of potential based on the drilling results to date, but of course how it pans out depends upon speculation that we as potential investors have to cross our fingers on! 
As for THX, it has an interesting uranium play that has colossal grades, as well as great nearology to Sandfire through its soon to be restructured base metal portfolio. I held shares in the company quite a long time ago but I decided that its price was high reflecting its speculative value with uranium and despite the high uranium grades at its Pine Creek project I decided the market had gone off the boil for uranium stocks at the time. 

As for WPG I haven’t followed the company but I do like the iron ore space and its seems as though its portfolio has stacks of potential based on a quick review of its recent presentation. I won’t go any further than that about the company. (Its amazing the extent of iron ore laden companies in Australia. 

I worked in iron ore a long time ago, well before it was ever famous, and its just unbelievable how much the iron ore industry has gone beyond the principal miners in the Hamersley Range, Middleback Ranges and Savage River! It seems that even the small iron ore explorers that have prospective ground in the middle of nowhere can get (principally Chinese) buyers to provide funding in some form or other. How things have changed from years gone by – when I worked in that industry no one wanted the job I applied for, as it was like being sent to the Siberian salt mines!).

As you may know from my comments re SIH, I have concerns about Indonesia and tenement access etc, and the recent changes to Indonesian Mining Law may provide some slightly increased level of confidence to owners holding ground that were formerly KP’s. But the issue with respect to Forestry areas is still a primary risk, and the fact that Central Govt may not provide sufficient control over areas that are ruled by provincial govts and bupatis with a different agenda makes investment risky. 

Therefore I am not a real fan of IUA for Tujuh Bukit despite it having very exciting intersections announced to date. If you can get more confidence on the tenement side then it’s a very exciting exploration play, and given Paulsens to continue to 2011 ensures the company has enough cash to explore in Indonesia, but my view is that such large projects need tenement surety that Indonesian Mining Law is yet to demonstrate it can give, particularly for a project that has the potential to be a huge long term operation requiring considerable capital investment. (In comparison Mapawa has the benefit of tenement security already demonstrated via the MPSA route, although I would imagine that RED would seek to transfer title to FTAA status provided the High Court judgement about FTAA legitimacy under the Philippines statute is resolved appropriately in years to come). In the case of IUA if I’m not mistaken I think that its rights over Tujuh Bukit are held via contract with the tenement holder holder – that provides a contractual risk that is not acceptable to most, especially to bankers who would probably find it untenable for lending with lack of collateral security.

I haven’t followed the MEO/MOG arrangements closely enough to comment at all.


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## anderbond (22 April 2010)

Thanks again Beatle for your insights. I have been wondering what to do with IAU (noting CJ is also the Chairman). It is obviously quite a way off despite the Paulsen's cash flows. The news flow with THX has been quite good (a prerequisite with any of these companies) so I will wait until the restructure takes place before making a decision. WPG is an interesting one as they are definitely on the way to production, with possible further good news if the Defence Department alters its stance. I am fairly sick of MEO/MOG but that might be because of the substantial delay in announcing the farmin partner (Petrobas). Also the HC commentary threads leave a lot to be desired with MEO in particular so that has probably coloured my thinking. All in all, it does look to me like the best short term leverage is likely to be with RED.I am also encouraged by your remarks that Lance says he has no intention of selling his RED shares.  AB


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## beatle (22 April 2010)

Hi Anderbond, it seems that many of the resource specs are just paddling along doing their business with little price moves on the up at the moment. RED is in a similar zone, going about their business of all the preparatory work onsite for Siana with the big push to happen once the debt is done. 

About LG, he certainly viewed RED as being heavily discounted at present. Therefore I am of the view that as he has been inside the company as a key executive director and knows whats really going on, for him to make a decision to hold onto his shares (which at current share price are worth around $1.1 million!) seems to add further reassurrance to us outside of the company that our investment funds are not significantly at risk through any potential issues that might otherwise be within the company. Further, he also conveyed a sense that the general day to day life, business and mining activities seemed to be going along well with no real risk being seen from the upcoming presidential elections.


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## mgm1a (22 April 2010)

Beatle - thanks your posts very informative. i have to say i am also feeling "blue" - this is so frustrating that this has so many false breaks /one days peaks and slips backwards so quickly. I am way over-balanced in RED and want it in 20's so i can rebalance!..i am missing others that are running!

I have been trying to figure out why there is such a gap betwen Sp and fairer value. I suspect the very high quality posts you had repeatedly reminded market on very solid values in the stock and which i concurred with! We even see a clue of this in the depth with so much listed well ahead at 19 and 20 - i think others have been heartened by the analysis and know that they can safely trade from any current value and know that SP will eventually get there. But internet posters really couldn't affect price, ? could they?

Anderbond - i was surprised at the statement in the ann. re Mr Govey deaprture included a declaration of his intent to hold shares. I thought why don't more co.s do they - fairly happy he declared that and happy to take that at face value.

I note on the chart that there is now a (bullish) cup & handle formation from the mid-Nov point to now. Also note that the 30 day moving average has just gone upwards through the 100day M (aso bullish) ...so maybe something more positive will happen.


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## beatle (23 April 2010)

Hi Mgm1a, thanks for your comments in your post and I want you know that your thoughts regarding the bullish technical interpretation is very comforting to me – not that I require a chartists technical tick of approval for my own belief in RED, but because it will provide the tick of approval that many other technical traders require for their own investment decisions. Its because we have like minds, each with a tick of approval, acting together with solidarity (and I am no communist at all, Lol) that will ensure that RED share price finally moves towards where it should be!

But your post also has made me think a bit more deeply about some of the frustrations that many of us longer term holders share and continue to have even now, despite RED finally achieving the considerable milestones, particularly in the last 12 months. In terms of real project activities and milestones there has been a considerable level of accomplishment, that does give me the confidence to believe this time we are heading towards that long-awaited payola.

In contemplating your comments regarding frustrations of RED not already being at a much higher share price, I thought it might be worthwhile for me to expand on RED regarding its history, that might fill in some of the gaps of knowledge that other more recent investors will take on board, and it might also help us all to have more confidence that the many false starts we have observed in recent years are ready to end in success! Its possible this history will help fill in some of the gaps to the jigsaw puzzle.

Firstly I should say that RED to me is the longest continuous investment (punt/gamble, whatever) I have had in the small spec stocks area. My first involvement with RED was back in about 1996 (I may be out in some of my facts now – but alzheimers is to blame, not me ok?). Since that first purchase of Greenstone shares (as RED5 was known at that time) I have seen the share capital move from about 54 million shares (forgive me if I am out by a few million shares) to what it is today! But the reason I point this out, is that RED to me is like the trilogy “Lord Of The Rings” (I read the book in the bush whilst working in exploration many years ago, I didn’t see the movie). It has been an ever-changing adventure, and its those individual chapters of RED history that I believe are part of the reason for RED not yet achieving what it should have achieved! Let me expand a little.

In expanding a little some may say its running the risk of opening up old wounds, but without opening it up i don't think you can’t get to the root of the problem! And having got that understanding by opening it up I believe you then can get much more confidence that those past events might explain the past false starts to the share price, but will not hold up the real successes that have been achieved more recently that will also lay the foundations for the future successes: IN MY VIEW RED SHARE PRICE IS NOW SITTING AT ITS LAST LOW LEVEL BEFORE THE BIG SURGE UP!!!

While RED was GRN (Greenstone) the management group was a different group and its “sister company”, housed in the same company office, was Giralia, which had similar management and share structure, and similar limited cash. Oh how GIR has changed over the years, now with a market cap of $430 odd million and only 178 million shares on issue!

What has this got to do with RED now? – well actually I think its highly relevant and I will explain why…

First is to have people realize that having made the move from GNR to RED was a monumental struggle for those involved, with considerable emotional upheaval (to under-state the real war that was going on at that time). The transition and just prior to it was not smooth, it was all out warfare, with two principal groups of investors and interested parties involved, both diametrically opposed for various reasons but no point to elaborate on that here. The “split in the ranks” at this early stage of RED I believe has been instrumental in forming the various factions with differing opinions about RED and its likelihood of ever achieving production at Siana and becoming a successful mining house in its own rights (and IMO will be the reason why MML never contemplates a merger with RED!).

Having finally achieved the transition across to RED (with the incoming management group headed by GE and LG and another NDY lawyer as chairman) there was a continuation of personality conflicts and different motivations, resulting in a falling out between GE (as the incoming Man Dir) and the Geo in charge, and that has been a further reason in my mind as to why there remains some doubt about why RED has not got full value for the project that it has developed (Councilgritter might be able to enlighten us as I think he might be closer to the geo of that time). (By the way, I don’t know who the real names of any of the posters on HC or ASF are, but I note some of their affiliations by the commentary in the posts).

Since that time Siana has been the subject of an exhaustive series of feasibility work, which started with its drilling in about (not exactly sure!) 2003 and culminating with the sign off in 2009. But along the way there was the false start that occurred with Soc Gen offer of finance in Oct 2007 and the related placement to Southern Cross Equities clients in Nov 2007(that clearly soured SCE placees when the share price fell below 10 cents!) that amounted to nothing as the underground resource had to be drilled out and some of the placement funds were gradually used up for that process and the Soc Gen debt was not used (apart from a small interim facility to purchase the mill). 

And then on a parallel basis was the Mapawa MPSA application saga, which was promised so long ago and only came to fruition in 2009. 

Then there was BFS take two!

With this chequered/coloured past, there are broadly 2 groups of investors that have views about Siana’s development:

1. The group that look at the project based on it having gone through the most exhaustive BFS process, with independent and highly competent consultants involved, and give it the tick of approval. And the fact that gold has now got to a level where Siana is going to make so much more than it ever would have if it were developed a few years ago as well!
This group has grown considerably over time, and is headed by the recent insto’s becoming involved, and as time progresses towards development this group will finally overrun group 2 below!

2. The "doubters" - those that look at the past events and failures (right from GNR/RED changeover days through to the more recent past false starts) and are happy to continue to “right off” RED and Siana feed doubt into it ever becoming a successful operation. Possibly this is fed from some who don’t want to see RED succeed as well because of the past history and their unfortunate experiences, either as investors or past participants!

I believe that only once it is clear that Siana is going to be developed, with all the finance in place and the approvals complete and the contracts underway, that the group of doubters will finally lose out, and be replaced by those that will take RED to its new highs. 

How high of course depends upon a couple of things, amongst others:
1. The price of gold
2. The potential of Mapawa

I would like also to have it noted that I have been to Siana, albeit a while ago now, and I have reviewed the technical information as much as I have been able to, bearing in mind I have not been an insider ever into GNR or RED, and I can say that there is nothing that I am aware of, either technical nor environmental/social that will be an impediment to Siana being developed as a very successful long life low cost mining operation. 

Interestingly, Siana actually is nestled half way up a slope that has views across to the neighbouring Boyongan deposit some 4 or so kms away. I have walked up that hill (alone) and wondered if there was any likelihood of gold further up the hill, as there are places I recall that had definite quartz veining in the rocks at those upper levels. But that is for another time and I don’t want to put focus on something that is still not in the league of Siana or Mapawa as they both currently sit!


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## beatle (23 April 2010)

A couple of other points Mgm1a that should also be considered:

Us posters in these forums also provide a means for interested investors to consider the investment opportunity in stocks, including RED. We can perform that function, as a supportive marketing/PR auxillary to company PR (whether the company wants it or not, lol!) that allows our views to express gaps in the knowledge of a particular stock, albeit with our slant/prejudice on it! And our views do not have to keep having the same attribution statements that you see on all ASX releases which quite frankly are just another scapegoat disclaimer relieving any one in the official system of blame!

The big test though for us posters is to ensure that our posts remain responsible and aware of the possible outcomes to each post, and that our facts are sufficiently accurate to develop the logic and rational conclusions we seek to convey.

I don't believe its good enough to just ramp a stock for short term gain, as it will bite you in the bum eventually once you get a name for such ramps.

Also I might add, which follows from my past post referring to the doubters that have kept RED in its current trading band, and the growing number of supporters that will eventually win out big time. There are also another group, I refer to as knockers, lol, and I have been within that group for a long time and only once things started to unravel for RED did I become a convert to my position as it stands now, as being an extremely supportive shareholder and poster. I think that a number of other posters on RED threads up until the milestones being achieved were also outspoken knockers like me, so we seem to have gelled together well in these forums as we have endured the lows before the highs.

(Pity that I had to go through that knocker stage as it resulted in my dropping a stack of stock due to frustration a few years ago, now I wish I had dealt with my frustrations in a different way rather than drop precious stock at cheap prices!).


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## anderbond (23 April 2010)

Hi Beatle, another very informative post. You have filled in a number of gaps in my knowledge and the background of the coy. May I ask re the GD involvement as you have referred to it previously in earlier posts. I am thin in knowledge on the earlier situation and when I spent a day at the site, GE referred to some sort of earlier bunfight but was not specific. As an aside, another speccie I forgot to mention is RML. I have been there to(last year) to check out the commercial scale trial and I have to say this one looks to have some real possibilities. AB


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## beatle (23 April 2010)

Hi Anderbond. As I mentioned in the earlier post, my intent was to try to give some background to how RED has evolved over time, so that we might collectively be aware of why there remain some obstacles to the share price. With an understanding of the potted history I have outlined, which might explain why it hasn't been an easy road to where its got, maybe we can now be convinced that with a few more nails in the coffin brought about by debt finance and work on the ground heating up those past obstacles will be overcome, with a realisation that the doubters are behind us now, and it can go to much higher highs than was previously envisaged. (On that I should also note that I spoke with one of those doubters from earlier times about 12 months ago after catching up with him in the street, and he had retained his shares but was wondering at that time if it would ever be back at 15 cents - I am sure he would be impressed with how its recovered and maybe he has now changed into a supporter now too!).

As for GE and GD, well without a long explanation I would say that the stage was set for a show down from the moment that GE got on board as GD had previously been aligned to the group that were taken out by the new blood. And the personalities clashed! (And I would say that it could not be mended now).

Again you keep pulling out other stocks that seem interesting, although RML of course is not new and has been developing Acoje for quite a long time in an area that clearly is a major Ni-Cr endowed province. The company has also had an "interesting and colourful" history (Hmmn). Again I haven't followed it closely enough to make useful comment, and from my understanding of it going to merge with another overseas group really puts more need to undertake further analysis before forming an opinion. Clearly you would have a much closer understanding on the company and especially on the merger than I.


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## mgm1a (23 April 2010)

Beatle - thanks for the history.I didn't know any of that!  
My overweighting arises in direct proportion to the research i do with a stock, but without going to the country to check it out!
As you, anderbond and tokyo have acknowledged to have visited it useful to know its as real as the photos.

I only started when i put it in my watchlist notebook in Feb09 when it was a princely 3.7c and it was UNDER cash backing. I didn't buy as i was too consumed with portfolio destruction of GFC. But i didn't climb on till Sept, so its great to hear from folks who have been with it longer and stayed with it as it dampens my impatience to get out at less than fair value.

At the start of 2009 my trusty notebook reminds me i looked at both KCN and MML which I like a lot, but i couldn't pay more than the prices at the time beacuse i thought they were fairly priced ! They respectively have moved 4.59 to 8.50+ and 0.66 to 4.55 - sure gold has moved too but these have also moved because of able management and as you rightly point out just as importantly they are producers. I would also characterise RED's mgmt as able too and can't wait to see them get thru the operational risks ahead to the first pour for further rerating. In meantime it still lags its valuation.

I agree ASF, HC are great tools to get market intell. you'd never be able to get on your own, assuming one can judge what is worth considering or not!
Talking of the investor relations......didn't they appoint someone mid last year ? 

Good luck


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## beatle (24 April 2010)

Mgm1a, actually I’m surprised you only bought in Sept 09 as I thought you had got on board much earlier. 
I’m happy to fill in the gaps for you and anyone else as I think with a bit more insight to the behind the scenes maneuvering and motivations by various investors/stakeholders etc that you realize RED has had some skeletons in the cupboard that once completely stripped clean of, will finally allow it to trade at or above its NPV. That’s why I’m so comfortable despite being frustrated that it takes so long to happen!

I think that the last GFC crisis gave us all a once in a lifetime opportunity to take up highly discounted shares in many different sectors of the market and I’m no different to you in regretting not getting more of many shares in various companies (including RED) at that stage. But I guess we are learning every day, and despite knowing that the markets move in cycles I was concerned too that the world was going to end in late 2008!

With regard to RED management, particularly with the recent appointment of the project Director and some of the recent contracts awarded I’m very comfortable with the way forward for RED for development of Siana. Now that RED has got the majority of its activities etc underway I still remain unconvinced that the MD should be based in Manila, and I’m very appreciative of the work that the non-executive chairman has done over the past 6 – 12 months to keep the investment community informed and involved. I hope that RED will re-consider the current arrangement with regard to future RED PR etc which I consider to be a primary function of the MD.

With the PR, I don’t recall a specific person being appointed other than the quarterly comment a few quarters ago of RED intending to beef up its investor relations. I might be wrong with this so stand to be corrected by anyone knowing anything better.


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## anderbond (27 April 2010)

Hi Guys, Yes Beatle, I have the same recollection that CJ made a comment in one of last year's reports that more attention would be paid to lifting RED's profile. In line with this, LG made a few presentations, eg to the Sydney Mining Club which I attended (and coincidentally Robert Gregory MD of RML also presented at the meeting). A copy of the RED presentation was (is) available on the coy website, and of course a great deal has happened since then. At the Sydney meeting LG made comments about the low SP relative to many others and showed a comparitive chart. Since then the SP has kicked upwards but not as much as we all would like. I feel Beatle you are right in saying that once production is underway then more interest will occur, especially if the gold price continues to trend upwards. I am unsure about whether having the MD resident for example in Oz would make that much difference, because as far as I know GD of MML is resident in the Phils and look at the MML SP! I stand to be corrected on this though? The appointment of the RED Project Director looks to be a very good one, as his background is very impressive. For example, Leighton's(his previous employer) delivered the construction of Masbate within budget and ahead of time and it appears the appointee was involved in this. As I have previously mentioned on the HC site, I remain very tranquil overall and continue to believe that RED will help underpin my retirement due in about three years(or sooner if RED really fires up lol!). As an aside, I suggest checking out the things that RML is up to..very interesting and I have also personally visited their project. I call it "investment tourism" as an alternative to "wine tourism". So far it has been much more rewarding lol!. AB


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## beatle (27 April 2010)

Hi Anderbond, and once again a very informative post, and whilst we have the same objective and motivation clearly we see things from our own different perspectives to come up with common conclusions – that makes my beliefs all the more confident for the future of RED, thanks for that Anderbond!

As for GD and MML, I thought he was still based in perth but maybe he has moved across to Phils more recently. I believe wrt GE, that his efforts and time in Manila and Surigao are appreciated as it has been necessary to get the confidence and involvement of locals which he has managed to do, but bearing in mind that RED will soon be a significant gold producer my view is that he must then start to become more openly involved in managing the company which should include considerable PR rather than continue on a daily basis with project issues which are the responsibility of the newer guys being appointed at the moment (bearing in mind GE really isn’t a production person anyway). 

As for your comments re RED Project Director, I am aware that at the time of the commissioning of the Masbate mill there was a fair amount of dialogue between RED and CGA as they both purchased mills of the same type and vintage, and that dialogue helped cement a good relationship between the operating groups of both parties. This will be useful for RED when in production, especially with the Project Director having worked on both sites.

In regards to RML, clearly you have followed it very closely – I’ll keep a closer eye on it from now on. With regards to phils based companies, you may have seen the recent price move of SRM (market cap is a minnow at $9 mill), which has received an EL approval much further south in Mindanao (but prospective for porphyry copper gold type projects similar to Mapawa – but maybe less Au and more Cu). That demonstrates to me the value potential of Mapawa to RED that is not currently translated in RED share price.


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## mgm1a (27 April 2010)

Lovely mention in todays qtrly regarding a gold "major" shooting them a Letter of Intent regarding wanting to be first in the queue for any potential arrangements with Mapawa project. That was quick! as they only have a single drill assay to go by!

Beatle, Anderbond - there is probably a good reason for GE to be in Phillipines for a little while longer...theres lots of  "majors" calling him on the blower saying they want to come over for a look it over with him....solid fundametals, shame about the soft SP.


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## beatle (28 April 2010)

Mgm1a, some good points made re the gold major and GE need to remain in Phils at the moment. My comment re GE being relocated back to australia of course does relate to the longer timeframe when the Siana development is already complete and the next phase of RED growth is all about letting the world know that RED is a significant gold producer - at the moment the only place Siana is built is in my head, Lol! (But without that vision I wouldn't be here in the first place!).

I agree with your comment about only 1 hole having been drilled on Mapawa, so we don't have conclusion as to whether the Mapawa project will develop into a mega gold-copper operation, but what that letter expressing interest does prove is that RED is being looked at even at this time by others! AND its clearly not Anglo! 

The comment about Anglo in the quarterly confirms my view, that Anglo has been hanging around all along for a cheap entry based upon a deal structure that clearly was not in RED's best interest, and finally the penny has dropped that Mapawa will not come cheap to any interested party. And hopefully RED will be able to go a long way down the track by its own exploration before it even considers any other company becoming involved - and that was spelt out with the comment ...."The current treasury position of the Company will allow an aggressive exploration programme to be mounted should on-going drilling results be supportive".

In general the quarterly was very succinct in confirming its development plans and activities remain on track (possibly the debt component finalisation has slipped a couple of weeks from my reading of it) and I like the quarterly working capital report that refers to the $12 million development spend, along with $1 million exploration. And the fact we can look at the photos of Siana developing on a fortnightly basis. 

Everything remains good except for Mgm1a's observation that the share price is not reflecting it. (I happened to watch a Foxtel Brokers session last night where a listener asked the broking panel about RED5 as an investment and the panel of 3 all said they had not heard of it and its start up gold production next year!). (That is why I believe there needs to be a major campaign of informing brokers, on an ongoing basis so that the market does become informed, otherwise it will always be traded by the informed investor that hears it through other means).


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## beatle (28 April 2010)

Also, it should be noted that RED continues to benefit from the price of gold moving up, currently at US1,162/oz. 

RED debt finance timing may by sheer luck enable the putting away of its "gold loan" (limited to US$15 million, equivalent at the moment of ~12,900 ozs) at much higher prices, and since RED management has previously debated its longer term view of hedging, may in fact benefit from that rising gold price before ever making a decisive move - but as I understand it the overall view of the board (well the board prior to recent changes made) was to minimise the gold put into hedging. 

At some point if gold continues to spike up, IMO it wouldn't hurt to hedge a year or so production, and rolling - after all, there is nothing like having a bit of insurance at these uncertain times and you still get a reasonable contango with interest rates in $A on the increase (especially when the gold price is so far above opex costs of US$351/oz and the mine is long life, of at least 10 years as the resources stand at present).


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## beatle (29 April 2010)

I'm absolutely amazed that sellers took control today, in spite of the huge discount to reasonable value based on Siana NPV - it is finished the day at 15cents having hit 14 cents mid-session, despite having an NPV valuation of RED of around 35 cps at a gold price of US$1,160/oz!

And Mapawa has the potential to add to that base case valuation!

Maybe its the fact that project finance is yet to be approved (expected within the next 6 weeks or so), or maybe its a leak from the lab that the assays for Mapawa hole 2 are not so great! (I have already mentioned previously that hole 2 was drilled orthogonally to hole1, and about 350 odd metres away from the hole 1 collar. Hole 2 has been reportedly found to have a lot more sulphides, presumedly pyrite, which may have a lower gold tenor associated, being peripheral to the core of alteration that is expected based on the normal zonation that is normally associated with these mega porphyry mineralised complexes. Please note that a lower grade hole 2 does not downgrade the total potential of the LSY prospect, it just gives an indication of the extent to where higher grade mineralisation may have chopped out.

RED continues to be steal at current prices, and if gold price remains anything like current price then RED will surely be a lot higher once the project finance is bedded down. Remember also that the current field activities are not being delayed by the project finance yet to be granted, as funds are currently being expended by RED treasury - A$61 million in bank at present!


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## Bigukraine (29 April 2010)

To anderbond and beatle and the recent mgmia 

your posts have been fantastic reading and good to see that people are offering great insight without ramping a stock


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## GumbyLearner (29 April 2010)

Bigukraine said:


> To anderbond and beatle and the recent mgmia
> 
> your posts have been fantastic reading and good to see that people are offering great insight without ramping a stock




Yes, I'll 2nd that. Red 5 radar looks good so far. It would be great to hear an update from Southern Cross Equities.

DYOR


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## badger7 (30 April 2010)

*Re: RED - Red 5 Limited bought in 2003 for .15*

for all the wrong reasons

now there are proven reserves(?) or just probable.

anyone can get an estimate for building a mine but is it financially justified?

why has the share price gone no where?


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## badger7 (30 April 2010)

get a dual listing in US OTC BB.

It is very difficult to get red on the asx in the US.

There are also many gold newsletter writers here, some of them demand publication "fees"


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## anderbond (30 April 2010)

G day Guys, a quick thanks to Bigukraine and GumbyLearner for comments, I too have enjoyed the objectiveness of those on this site. You will find that Beatle is one of the best learned commentators around.  
Now, Beatle the other day you mentioned SRM in passing and their very recently granted Taguibo exploration permit. At the time I had a quick look at the details and noted the position of the exploration area plus the likelihood of the potential resource containing more copper than gold as per the results to date.
I saw yesterday that SRM has now taken CGX on as a strategic investor with a 10% stake. This follows on earlier SRM announcements on capital raising which have now been replaced by the announcement re CGX. I find this very interesting, because as we know CGX has a proven track record in the Philippines. The cost of the stake to CGX is small but gives them early movers advantage if the resource does indeed prove to be substantial (or massive). The benefits to SRM are extensive as they can access CGX's expertise and skills.  So this is likely to be a story well worth following.
The thing that caught my attention though is the current SP of SRM of 12c. While it may come back a bit following the issue to CGX at 6c (these things seem to be the norm), IMO it heavily reinforces the fact that RED is so underpriced as to be beyond belief, when a comparison is made between where the two coys are presently placed. In addition, the SRM news highlights the interest that has built over the last few years in the Philippines, especially since the Govt legislated to enable a mining boom as part of their economic strategy. There would be absolutely no doubt that RED would be on the radar screen of many bigger miners, so lets hope we do get to see the SP reach an appropriate level rather than possibly being taken out on "the cheap". AB


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## anderbond (30 April 2010)

Hi Beatle, I know this is on wrong thread but wanted to mention the RML Quarterly Report out today gives a good up to date picture. Looks v promising IMO. Apologies to all re thread. AB


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## beatle (30 April 2010)

Hi Anderbond, and thanks for your compliment – shame that I can’t post something that allows RED share price to move up to where it should be, Lol!

I agree entirely with your conclusion regarding SRM, that in fact it demonstrates the potential value that Mapawa may ultimately add to RED, but maybe even more important is that the share price has moved considerably higher which demonstrates that finally Philippine projects are getting more recognition and interest by investors than we have seen in a long long time. And as MML and CGA have also been able to enjoy too – but of course with each of those latter companies the writing is on the wall with them producing stacks of low cost gold. Once RED does have production there is no doubt that it will also enjoy that same favourable treatment by investors, but I guess the doubters remain unconvinced of RED production still – its just a matter of time and the project finance will ease those doubts once achieved!

As for Badgers comments regarding “proven reserves” vs probable reserves. What you must realize is that in the conversion of a reserve (or more correctly resource from Indicated to Measured resource, which then moves into Proven or Probable Reserve once economic viability and pit constraints are imposed) is the cost and time involved for the additional more intensive drilling, with limited actual practical benefit – even banks accept Probable Reserves for project finance, and in practice most projects tend to favour just achieving Indicated Resources (Probable Reserves) for an operation, and in some instances a more conservative resource estimator will apply more stringent parameters to the same information to call something Indicated ( Probable Reserve) whereas another resource estimator may be prepared to call that same resource Measured ( Proved Reserve)! 

In a practical sense in operations each of those resources/reserves will be infill drilled to ensure that the actual mining reserve is based on a much tighter grade control pattern and the variation from the original Base Case reserves will be carefully assessed, to give the Reconciliation which can be either way (ie up or down from the Base Case reserves estimated). I suggest whereas the Probable Reserve may have an increased level of uncertainty compared to the Proved Reserve, the Base Case cash flow model based on Probable Reserve is still a very good indication of likely value and profitability. And in any event anyone doing a discounted cash flow analysis will always look at the sensitivity of changing the grades and tonnages (along with other parameters such as costs and recovery etc) to ensure project viability remains intact. In the case of RED, the DCF analysis is based on a very low cost, long timeframe development so that the NPV remains robust based on variations of the various levels. There is no doubts about the economic viability of Siana relative to many other projects based on that analysis IMO.

[AB - thanks for your comments re RML quarterly]


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## badger7 (30 April 2010)

Is there any assurance that RED won't forward sell gold in order to get bank financing.

No one here in US has heard of Red as it only sells on ASX


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## yuyu (4 May 2010)

hey guys

thought i just pop in here to say hello to everyone esp beatles. 

anyway RED just ann "Siana open pit mining contract award" and sp keep going down. large seller at 13.5. Look like me someone tryin to scare the buyers away so they can accumm cheaper. May be big holders looking to exit or shorters are playing with the market fear atm.

anyway keep up the good work guys.

yuyu


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## beatle (4 May 2010)

Hi Yuyu, great to get your post here in ASF. I'm currently traveling so not able to post so regularly and just watching RED share price from afar, so not able to make informed comment about blow by blow trading as I have done previously.

I just want to make the following comments re RED share price - I am wondering if someone has got news of hole 2 assays at Mapawa and have decided its not as good as hole 1 and dropping shares. IF that is the case then they are doing so without the bigger picture about Mapawa AND more importantly about Siana:
1. RED share price based on Siana is north of 35 cents now, based on current gold price. All we need now is the finance finally approved then there is not another milestone required to initiate share price going north IMO. Once that announcement has been made then I will be buying a few more despite my finances now mostly used up buying RED previously (but IMO any share price bought around current price will be worth MORE THAN double that in the coming months!).
2. Mapawa is the cream on the share price of RED, but without it as I say above RED is worth more than 35 cps based on the current gold price. BUT hole 2 of Mapawa does not necessarily have a significant bearing on whether Mapawa will be an economic proposition in its own right, as it was drilled about 350 metres away from hole 1, and drilled at a direction at right angles to hole 1 - if hole 2 were to be mineralised to any extent it would mean the extent of Mapawa mineralisation is HUGE!!! Hole 3 is a more important hole in determining the potential down dip extension of the existing mineralisation outlined in hole 1.

As for the question re RED hedging, as I have mentioned previously, RED has previously indicated its intention to minimise hedging for Siana, although the current financing plan requires a minimal hedging of around 13,000 odd ounces (ie < 2%) of gold to be mined at Siana. IMO I would prefer RED hedge more as it will lock in considerable future profits (the only risk is delivery risk which is bugger all when the operating cost of production is US$351/oz). And it ensures that eventually RED share price will move up to and likely trade beyond its share price valuation based on DCF values.


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## auscan (5 May 2010)

Beatle: 

I'm doubting if Drill 2 results is the cause. The unloading seems too calculated and drawn out over what is now a fair time period. If someone did know the results since this regular dumping has started, I would assume the report would have been out by now.

I think its a major holder slowly reducing their position, but for other reasons. From memory Anglo still has shares, so they may be just getting out in a methodical manner.

Unfortunately, the unloading is combined with a crap market environment atm, resulting in a struggling share price that is continually capped by a consistent seller.

I can't imagine the slide to continue much further, or perhaps this prediction is more of a wish than a prediction.


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## beatle (5 May 2010)

Hi Auscan, thanks for your comments which I value - particularly as I'm on the road and won't be back home for a few weeks. 

If you are correct about it being a bigger holder selling out (in a crap market) such as Anglo then its clearly not going to help the share price but it will give us a further opportunity to top up once it stops! (IF its Anglo then we won't know about it until the next release by RED of top 20 holders as Anglo had sold down to less then 5% so don't have to alert the market). I agree that Anglo would be the most logical holder to be selling since they have lost the prize they have been holding out for.

Why do I say it will give us an opportunity down the track to buy shares cheaply? As far as I'm concerned there are only 2 reasons why RED won't reach a share price of about 3 times its current price in the next few months - being a substantially reduced gold price or failure to get project finance. 

IF the gold price remains above about US$880 then RED value for Siana is above 20 cps EVEN if the exchange rate remains at 92 cents which is unlikely!

The only threat to RED value being attained now is therefore project finance not being granted, and we will know about this within the next 5 or less weeks! (If project finance was not possible then RED could conceivably continue to development with existing cash, plus another equity raising of around $20 million or alternatively farm-out Mapawa for a large cash injection. Those are just contingencies in the event that debt is not forthcoming.)


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## anderbond (5 May 2010)

Hi Guys, IMO it is almost certainly Anglo selling down their holding as it is clear they no longer have any reason to continue to hold any shares at all. Therefore given the present market turbulence and negative sentiment, once again we are all presented with another excellent buying opportunity. I agree with Beatle's thoughts that even if the project finance does not arrive, RED has the option of simply raising more capital as I don't think they would have much trouble given the current advanced state of the project. I am purely speaking of Siana with this. We know they have already commenced drill hole 3 at Mapawa, so the drilling program will continue to assess the potential of Mapawa and we will have a far better picture in the coming weeks or months.Of course the RED management approach has generally been to not pursue any form of "sensationalism" with drill results anyway. In addition, based on the large amount of drilling at Siana, a thorough grid based approach will be undertaken with Mapawa so it will take further time to properly delineate the true potential of Mapawa. But the strategy remains to get Siana into production and thus whatever is happening with Mapawa is cream on the cake (or longer term may become the cake lol). I personally am very happy with progress, and take little notice of the SP gyrations at the moment except to use the opportunity to top up.
I note that MML has released some further very encouraging preliminary exploration results today, which again emphasises the prospectivity of the region. As we know there are many other foreign owned projects" on the go "in the Phillipines, so over time there will be much greater notice taken of the potential of the whole region.
In addition, there is a very supportive government (which is not expected to change no matter who wins the forthcoming elections) and tax concessions, plus the mining industry is one of the designated industries by government to help drive the economy. I note China has pressed the government for some loosening up of foreign ownership restrictions as well, so there is interest all round. All in all, I believe it is simply a matter of maintaining a longer term perspective, and not get worried about the short term aspects of SP, or the fallout from various other events. My only concern would be if the bottom fell out of the gold price totally, but that seems extremely unlikely given the state of the global economy. AB


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## morton_mains (5 May 2010)

beatle, your earlier potted history on Anglo got me thinking ..i didn't know things had been cool. I like to see cornerstone investors so its been good having them. When i saw they reduction to precisely 4.99% my thoughts were "good they want to stay in, just out of sight". My thinking now is along anderbonds, yours and auscan..i think it was a ruse so as not to scare other holders and that they have been feeding the market since then..its been from sidelines and not placed in the depth, they are careful. 

It was 40mil so we may have some weeks left yet.


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## beatle (6 May 2010)

Hi All,
From my brief review of the market this afternoon its been carnage generally again today, and strangely I was disappointed that RED didn’t go down further to follow the others! It’s a funny thing to say I guess, but IMO RED remains one of the biggest certainties for a HUGE move up some time, whether the gold price hangs around current levels or even drops appreciably to around US$1,000 – at any price above US$1,000 RED will bounce in a big way once finance has been granted and the doubters have been silenced for all time. So any weakness that we have observed in RED price now is just more opportunity for making easy money sooner or later IMO.

And thus it really doesn’t matter if it is Anglogold selling at present or even if some other insto is now calling it a day. One thing for sure, eventually the DCF valuation will become the guideline for future trading once production is around the corner, thus current RED share price of 13 cps compared with a DCF valuation of around 36cps tells me that current share price won’t stay that price once finance is approved!

Anderbond also makes some very interesting and relevant comments about Philippines as an improving destination for resource development, from the point of view of general country risk, and the focus of China moving into the country in a bigger way. Its relevant to note that up until the late 1980’s Philippines was in the top copper producing countries in the world, so its resources potential is immense, thus China clearly has a good reason to develop increasing interest in the country. And this is demonstrated further by one of its biggest gold miners Zijin Mining taking control over Tampakan and with an eye on any other resource of significance in the region. 

The irony of the point that Anderbond has made is that, here we are investing in RED, an Australian company with a highly valuable Philippine gold asset, seen to be worth a discount because its not an Australian located property!!! Good old Kevin Dudd and his cronies have just demonstrated that there remains as much country risk with Australia as other countries!!! And note that RED will not be affected by any resource rent tax, but in fact will enjoy a TAX HOLIDAY for around 5 years!

I remain as confident as ever for the positive future value of RED share price, and will be buying more shares in the coming weeks!

(Please note, I am not a follower of either of the major, or for that matter minor, political parties at present, there is nothing any of them stand for at present that gives me any confidence in Australian politics!).


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## qldfrog (7 May 2010)

Let's see what happen today with gold above 1200USD currently after a carnage in Wall street..
I own RED and major gold miners....
Oliver


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## beatle (7 May 2010)

Hi Oliver and All,

Well despite the continued sell-off seems that gold is now the commodity that will turn it around for gold stocks, and RED also demonstrated that it might be at its low point now prior to any announcement out re finance and Mapawa. 

If gold continues to move up towards its all-time US$ price and beyond then maybe RED will be amongst all gold stocks out-performing. And RED has got so many other things going for it compared to many existing producers:
1. Many still doubt that it can get into gold production, but if finance is announced then that doubt should well and truly be gone!
2. As a potential gold producer RED continues to trade at a HUGE discount to its DCF valuation, yet most gold producers (ie those with low costs, long lives) tend to trade at a premium, not a discount!
3.Mapawa has already demonstrated its potential to be a major additional asset for RED, and has not been valued at all within its current share price, and in fact does also upgrade the value of all its other porphyry targets either within the Mapawa MPSA or the Siana MPSA (eg Madja).

As an interesting aside, in euro terms gold is now at its highest point ever! For reference to this I attach the following thread for your interest:
http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2010/May/6/America-s-gold-wake-up-call

I still think that RED will hover around the current share price until the markets re-stabilise and until finance is finally announced to the market, within the next month.


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## anderbond (8 May 2010)

Hi guys, I see 3.3 million shares traded on Friday. There seems to be good demand at around the 13 to 13.5 cent mark. Just imagine if you were an institution that participated in the CR at 15.5 cents level and now have an opportunity to increase your stake at a cheaper figure. I say this because we have been told the CR was oversubscribed which I don't doubt for a moment. Given the massive increase in the "fear" index in recent days, the gold price seems likely to hold up, despite the massive shorting that is reported almost on a daily basis. Maybe the shorters will lose their shirts (thought to be around four US investment banks) and US taxpayers will once again have to bail them out. But I digress from my purpose here, as my real interest is to hope that wherever the selling is coming from, that the seller/s finish exiting their position in reasonable time. In some ways it is exasperating to see the Red SP hover around present levels but the market is the market, and there are many factors that play on the stock price. Unquestionably, eventually the fundamentals will start to prevail, so it is just a matter of time before we see Red really fire up. If a rise based on fundamentals coincides with the end of overhang selling, then we might really see the SP rocket up. Beatle has very detailed knowledge and has set out the basics of the whole project, the history, the current state of progress, and mentioned the one remaining outstanding in the form of finance. This cannot be far away so for anyone having jitters, have faith. AB


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## auscan (8 May 2010)

In regards to the results for #2 drill, could it be possible they are waiting for at least the results from #3 (which should be finished drilling by now) so they can provide a little bit more comprehensive report using the first 3 holes.

IMO they are not obligated to report on a single drill by drill basis, or are they?


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## beatle (10 May 2010)

Hi Auscan, its an interesting question you pose re Mapawa #2 drillhole. As you probably are aware, under the Listing Rules RED must provide continuous disclosure and provide the market with anything market sensitive (subject to it not being of a commercially confidential nature). Thus if #2 was a dud then its questionable whether RED would need to disclose the results and whether they would want to disclose - clearly without an explanation of where exactly #2 is located with respect to the overall geophysical anomaly etc then RED would have done an injustice to the overall Mapawa project - but I believe that RED has learnt enough about the market to sufficiently explain #2with regard to its overall relevance. With that in mind I suggest the RED will put something out once the #2 assays have been received and reviewed. If that is the case then its likely that the announcement will be out in the next week or soon thereafter.

With #3, when I last inquired, about 1 1/2 weeks ago it was at about 200 metres or thereabouts, and total depth target was 800 - 1,000 metres, thus it still has a long way to go - at the time of the quarterly I think it was expected to take at least 2 months! So we won't expect any announcement soon about #3 unless it gets stuck or some other reason for it to be pulled short of target depth.

As for Anderbond's comment re selling pressure I guess the only question I have got is whether any instos are feeling the heat re the entire market and being forced to pull out of any smaller stocks, such as RED. IMO provided we get the finance and the gold price holds up then its another buying opportunity for us all! (I just want to hear that the finance is granted without any other conditions precedent then its open slather with the buying for me!).


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## beatle (10 May 2010)

Current RED valuation:

Based on the following assumptions for DCF analysis I consider RED share price fundamental value as being

37.6 cps.

Gold price US$1,200
Silver price US$18.00 (this spiked up along with gold last week)
Exchange rate 88.5 c
10% discount rate
10% bank interest
A$17 million cash
97.6% beneficial interest to RED

THere is no value attributed to Mapawa, but from a different valuation basis I have suggested Mapawa is separately worth about 9cps to RED now, based on highly discounted probability factors using only first hole results, thus this gives a potential lower end value!

ie total potential current valuation for RED =  46.6 cps

Lets see what happens if either Mapawa comes in or if the finance for Siana is announced!

Personally if RED announces the finance being approved I hope that they also include a hedging through forward sales, of 70% of the open pit gold Probable Reserve ounces. This will set in stone HUGE PROFITS over the next few years, with only delivery risk which is bugger all risk knowing the operating costs and mining operation being stock standard.


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## auscan (12 May 2010)

Just perhaps, our unloader(s) of RED have finished unloading?

RED's broker / backers would have been monitoring who was selling and how much if any is left to sell. Have they been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the sell overhang to disappear before they stepped in to revive the share price.

I hope this is the scenario we saw today. Tmrow will confirm if the unloader has left the building ..


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## anderbond (13 May 2010)

Hi auscan, Yes I was wondering about the seller too. But I am not sure if there has been enough volume pass through over the past weeks. For example if it is Anglo they still had a lot of shares to dispose of. I wonder if anyone can provide a volume total for say the past 6 weeks. An alternative thought is that there may be buying pressure emerging based on the discounted SP, gold price, and/or the possibility of a very near announcement re the finance package. AB


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## beatle (13 May 2010)

Hi Anderbond, with regard to an announcement imminent, I would presume that subject to Auscan's earlier point of whether a not so interesting Mapawa #2 hole would be grounds for not announcing, I would have thought that the next announcement out will be Mapawa drilling rather than the finance. I think the finance is still some weeks away, but I'm happy to be wrong and it be brought forward, lol!

As for the latest share price and events such as the general market and gold price. I believe that with the turnaround of the overall market, and RED having gone up in sympathy with that, its a great sign. To me it suggests that there is nothing sinister in the recent RED sell down, in regards to either finance or Mapawa - if either of them were a possible coming issue I don't believe we would have seen the bounce in RED along with the rest of the market. 
Therefore its likely to have been nervous sellers - it could be Anglo which means we still have another opportunity to buy cheaper shares maybe if the market comes off - but I have wondered if some shares were sold by the Merrill Crowe Corp for instant profits.

For me things are looking very good (except I didn't buy any shares in the past few days!).


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## anderbond (13 May 2010)

Hi Beatle, You have raised a good point re Merrill Crowe. I had not thought of that. That is definitelya further possibility. I cannot imagine that institutions that have come onto the register in more recent times would be selling at a loss therefore the explanation must lie elsewhere. I understand from my broker that a lot of today's trades were crosses, so it is hard to get a handle on what is happening, but the volume was in line with most days rather than the volume spike we saw yesterday. I agree entirely with you that everything is in order to see the SP run a bit, or maybe a lot (lol). I am not concerned re the second Mapawa hole, as we know GE is quite conservative in his approach (he may not think so of course!) but whilst this is a good thing in many ways it means the SP does not ride any wave of emotion. I continually get announcements from MML that are clearly designed to both inform and push sentiment along, whereas this has never really been the RED approach. Nevertheless I fully believe that soon the quality of the Siana project will be seen clearly by the market, plus the Mapawa potential as time goes by. In reflecting on the sluggish performance of the SP, it seems to me that it may well be the Mapawa results that finally ignite the SP which would be ironic given that us longer term shareholders have been focussed on Siana for such a long time. One of my passions is professional cycling, and it is interesting to follow the fortunes of the current world champion, an Aussie by the name of Cadel Evans( an absolute champion in every way). If you check him out you will be amazed at his resume in what is one of the most difficult endurance sports around.There are so many things that conflict on a cyclist and prevent him from showing his absolute best everytime he sits in the saddle. But as Cadel has shown, when the quality is there, eventually you win out! This I feel is the story of RED, one of moving through periods of adversity, but always with a firm objective in sight. Despite a few setbacks along the way, the senior management and Board of RED have maintained focus on the end game. As the saying goes, the END GAME IS NIGH! There is no chance that RED will not move higher, it is simply a matter of recognition of the quality of this great little project(Siana). Mapawa may be the trigger to awaken the market to the true potential of this company. And just like Cadel stunned everyone with his World Champion victory, its onwards and upwards for RED!(IMO) AB


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## beatle (13 May 2010)

You make some interesting points AnderBond, and the analogy with Cadel Evans is of interest - I have watched the last 3 tour de frances with great interest and thought that last year was Cadel Evans year, so I hope that is not a bad omen (lol) for my expectations with RED! (I understand that his recent book is quite enlightening so maybe I should read it to get some inspiration for RED (have you read his autobiography?). To be honest I thought that he would not continue after last year so his recent success is a tribute to his own personal belief and desire to excel.

Back to RED, I thoroughly agree with your comments about conservatism,  actually its a bit frustrating, and yet I would imagine that RED should be giving Deutsche Bank great confidence since the Feasibility Study document was very carefully prepared by highly competent consultants, and I have had word from a guy still involved on the consulting side with RED that the project work has been well put together and management are very well regarded, with expectations that the project will be very successful. From another angle, I understand that senior RED management were seen walking into Deutsche Bank headquarters in Sydney for a long session yesterday and it seems things must be in the final throes to finessing the debt finance arrangement - lets hope so!

As for Mapawa, its going to be a long drawn out story IMO, but if hole #2 surprised us all and actually had some value for the markets to consider (bearing in mind it was not targeted towards the centre of the potential orebody but at a marginal location aimed at delineating the possible boundary to economic mineralisation), then I have no doubt that Mapawa LSY project will result in a  considerably increase in RED market valuation. I believe that RED will report on #2 regardless of its overall success, and that announcement shouldn’t be more than a couple more business days away.

I must admit though, that now I am really excited with this recent move in gold price to all time highs. Now my sights for RED shares is a lot higher than it was previously, and its an interesting thing to note that MML is now sitting at close to a market capitalisation of $900 million, which suggests that RED could move towards a dollar per share given it gets the finance and Mapawa makes all the right noises. Of course if it gets another bottler of a result from Mapawa#3 hole then it could exceed a dollar easily!


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## anderbond (14 May 2010)

Hi beatle, your news re senior management being seen in Sydney is very interesting. May I ask how you know this? I too believe that a dollar or more is a distinct possibility especially if Mapawa produces further great results.
But regardless, the present SP remains something of a joke. Again today there is a little bit of buying pressure despite the SP dropping to 14.5c at the open. It may be that if Anglo are selling down that they are doing it very gradually, but it actually seems to me there is some buying pressure. All in all, I think there are some clever things going on, somebody exiting and somebody accumulating and care being shown along the way. Maybe I am completely wrong with this, but my instinct is that this is what is happening. I see Noy Noy looks home in the elections. This is what I thought would happen from the moment he overcame his reluctance and announced his candidacy. I see he promises to run an honest administration and to stamp out corruption. Good luck I say as the Phils is the Phils! AB


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## anderbond (14 May 2010)

Beatle a PS. Sorry I forgot to mention that I have not yet read Cadel Evan's book but will get a copy soon. I actually ride around 300 to 400 klms per week and have seriously considered riding in the Phils but having seen the driving on relatively narrow roads have resisted the thought. Subic Bay area would be ok, a lot of training goes on there I noticed. Cadel is currently competing in the Giro D'Italia and is a real chance. AB


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## beatle (15 May 2010)

You're obviously a lot fitter (and younger) than I Anderbond, but having seen the traffic and maniacs on the road in phils I think you should reconsider, lol! 

The gold price has gone through a rough patch the last hour, down US$25!, lets hope its just an over-reaction. The thing I find hard to believe is that RED didn't gat anywhere near its latest highs with the gold price yet its now had the positives of acquiring Merrills' interest AND a positive hole#1 at Mapawa since its recent high of 19.5cents. Lets hope it doesn't retrace too far back if the gold price goes through a bit of a breather!


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## beatle (15 May 2010)

My apologies too Anderbond, I overlooked your earlier question re senior RED management being seen in Sydney Deutsche Bank office. I got that news from a reliable source, but actually its to be expected as we know from from the quarterly that they're in the midst of the financing and presumably that requires continuous meetings - I understand those at the bank were CJ and GE. 

I'm actually a bit disappointed we didn't get hole#2 this week but I guess they're too busy at the moment with the finance - which might also be a positive sign (or am I seeing the glass half full, lol?).


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## anderbond (17 May 2010)

Hi Beatle, I think you must have a remarkable network of friends if they can pick up on GE & CJ visiting Credit Suisse in Sydney!(lol). I couldn't agree more re the SP. It has not responded to the higher gold price not the most recent announcements in the way one might expect. It can only be selling pressure holding it back, or perhaps the "bots" are busy at work at the moment? I watched an interview with Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management who again reiterated in his opinion that it is only a matter of time for the small producers and emerging producers to really take off. By the way, I notice Sprott is reducing or selling out of its MML position. Interesting? Maybe they figure the MML SP has run so hard it is time to take profits and reinvest elsewhere. Would be fascinating if they bobbed up in RED(lol). On the cycling side, I see Cadel sits second on GC in the Giro. Go RED, Go Cadel! AB


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## beatle (17 May 2010)

HI Alderbond - again an interesting post from you (I get an update on the Giro D'Italia etc at the same time, and yes lets hope Cadel does us proud just like F1 and M Webber, but I don't really follow that other than barrack for the Aussie!).

Of course you meant Deutsche Bank? Mining and finance really are a small world, and it only takes one sighting and the whole world gets informed - if they know about ASF Lol!

As for Sprott Asset Management maybe looking to extend beyond MML into other smaller gold producers/developers etc. I don't know that investment group but would assume they would be aware of RED due to it being only a couple of humdred k's up the road from MML. I assume you are in GD's company still?


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## McCoy Pauley (18 May 2010)

Watching this one with some interest and just finalising my research before deciding whether to take a position in RED.

Accordingly, I was interested to note that Bank of America increased its voting power by more than 1% in the last week.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100517/pdf/31qc8ly0fb9slp.pdf


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## anderbond (19 May 2010)

Hi Beatle, Yes I put the wrong bank name in. Ha ha, I actually find that amazing as I know all these names well. Sprott Asset Management is a Canadian based fund management company that runs a number of funds including one that specialises  in the physical gold space. They also cover gold equities and the founder Eric Sprott is very highly regarded for his expertise. One of the things that is interesting to me is that not many of the Australian fund managers seem to be very interested in gold, either physical or equities based. Obviously NCM would be the one most would look towards (or maybe LGL) but according to Charlie Aitken of SCE, the NCM register is more slanted to off shore investors. There are of course a few specialist gold funds available but overall the level of interest by Australian domiciled managers seems cursory. Perhaps they are much more happy with the iron ore and coal producers given the ongoing demand for these commodities. I have recently seen some interesting charts showing the outperformance of gold compared to a range of other things, such as currencies, equities, property and these give me great heart as to where RED will eventually go. The cycle seems to be that the physical price of gold moves first, followed by the SP of the big producers, and then followed by the smaller producers then the explorers. The greatest leverage lies with the smaller producers and explorers (obviously the greatest risk lies here too). Although some are saying the gold price is already in a "bubble", if so it is probable that it is very early days yet. We should not forget that the inflation adjusted price of gold from the seventies is something along the lines of US$2400. I see that some of the institutions on the RED register are steadily building their stake, so this is further evidence of the sensational potential of RED. It is only a matter of time imo, and the current weakness will not last much longer. AB


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## beatle (21 May 2010)

Thanks for the information on Sprott Asset Management, lets hope they are watching how things develop for RED.

Today was another terrible day for RED and for the rest of the market, and its getting to the stage now of just hoping that calm eventually returns to the market without too much damage to the gold price. IMO RED future share price is guaranteed to outperform so long as they can get the project finance and with a reasonable gold price. I have a feeling that the current RED weakness is all about the general selling pressure than anything that might be related to RED alone, lets hope so - that second hole at Mapawa must be close to having its assays reported subject to it being worth reporting at all!

(BTW, I have been suspended for life from HC as I mentioned previously, despite the claim that I have more than one account is false - posters I believe to be on the SIH threads accused me of that to get rid of me, as I was a fly in their ointment, lol! - someone else via this website ASF privately emailed to me that they had become aware of my plight through one of their mates who apparently is a moderator on HC, and also mentioned that many of those moderators on HC are corrupted!).


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## anderbond (21 May 2010)

Hi Beatle, yes I asked the question on HC if you were still suspended and someone responded about two log ins or something like that. I have commented that it seemed like a hanging judge trial (or kangaroo court lol). But enough said about HC.
Yesterday I took the opportunity to top up with another batch @ 13c, then lo today they are down further. A friend who already has a few has decided to double his holding today hoping to pick them up @ 11c. I imagine there are others out there doing the same, although it seems that BOAC is in there building their stake. Like you I am not worried about the SP eventually moving up, it is just a matter of time. I have been wondering whether the current winds of negative sentiment might have an impact on the financing package but on reflection have concluded that things would have to get a lot worse before this was likely. Gold price was down a little but again this looks to be nothing to worry about. There are some that believe that gold is a risky asset but I think this group is probably now in the minority as the gold price has held well despite the recent days carnage in equities markets everywhere. I see the OZ market is down around 13% from its April peak at lunchtime today (Fri) so in effect that is a healthy correction. The A$ has taken a pasting, but this is partly to do with its status as a "risky" currency and partly to do with worries about a Chinese slowdown (bulk commodities) but most of all to do with the Krudd RSPT! In one announcement Krudd has succeeded in making Australia an unattractive destination for foreign capital.
So out of the country it goes with a resultant impact in resource stocks. But I won't get too political, it is not worth space, time or thought except to note that we should concentrate on stocks that are unaffected by the tax such as RED. Beatle, given the Phils election outcome, IYO do you think that there could be any concerns weighing on stocks like RED? I have thought this through and given they are fully permitted, unlikely I suppose, but could the tax regime there change? AB


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## badger7 (24 May 2010)

*Re: RED - Red 5 Limited  Dilution*

Ordinary Fully Paid Shares - 659,288,043
Options (unlisted various exercise prices and expiry dates) - 19,900,000


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## beatle (26 May 2010)

Hi Anderbond, sorry for my delayed reply, I have been caught up on a lot of other business lately. 

With regard to the Philippine elections, from my understanding the election of NoyNoy is very good for business certainty. The reason being that he was the favoured candidate, but unlike in past elections where the President had been elected on reasonably close results, NoyNoy has had the majority of backing from the people in this election, thus there is no other candidate (and their following) likely to “stir the pot” on any particular issues. He effectively has got the mandate from the people to pursue his policies and his policies for business are seen to be positive.

KRudd has now brought home the fact to us all that its probably better to invest in ASX listed mining companies with projects offshore - those companies are not going to be affected by the super profits tax and the uncertainty element surrounding it. RED should therefore benefit from super tax implementation, and I’m sure in particular offshore investors will see that strategy beneficial as the furore over the tax increases in media, particularly around Aussie election time.

At least the gold price has now started to move up a bit, and that continues to suggest RED valuation on Siana around 35 cps. 

I would say that RED having not put out the #2 drillhole for Mapawa doesn’t consider it to be market sensitive, thus unlikely to be a world beater, but then as I have explained previously that it was clearly drilled peripheral to the core of the mineralization and that was probably confirmed with the increase in sulphides in the hole, which is of the type typical of zonation of porphyry alteration common in these deposits. Thus if #2 was put out it probably would not have been such an exciting hole from a mineralization point of view, but in fact only goes to substantiate the typical pattern derived in thus style of mineralization. Thus its probably a positive in the overall situation of Mapawa. #3 is clearly the biggy to establish the potential extent of mineralization at depth, but even that is not necessarily implying a dud project if it doesn’t come up with the goods as it could still be missing the heart of the real mineralization, although it would imply the deposit tonnage is lesser than to be hoped for.

Its  good to see Bank of America topping up, I guess the more informed institutional investor is now just picking up stock as it desires with the occasional weakness in the general market. 

If RED announces debt funding through Deutsche Bank in the next few weeks (and that’s about the original timeframe that we should be expecting the announcement) then RED will become RED_HOT in my view! It would be good timing with the gold price as it is.

(I'm not sure what Badger7's point is, if it is a reference to the previous shares on issue prior to this latest placement or what?).


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## auscan (26 May 2010)

had a chat with RED 5 office a week or so ago .. 

#2 will be included with #3 report (#3 still a few weeks off from completion) since the #2 results were not price sensitive and combined with #3 would provide a more accurate summary of the intial exploration. Goes with your logic beatle.

Finance supposedly looking good. Fixed costs are below initial estimated costs in most cases so they were confident of no glitches in approval. Mid June was the target for this.

Re Mapawa, they are seeking further funding from the board to expand exploration drilling and are confident that will be approved.

They were happy to see reduction in Anglo holding.


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## beatle (26 May 2010)

Thanks Auscan, a most informative post of yours, especially with regard to the finance - I'm just waiting for an announcement of that to get some more. So mid-June is the time to watch!

With the Mapawa drilling, it sounds from what you are saying that RED wants to add value for the project before doing anything silly like a farm-out to a major, and I am very happy to hear that. Lets hope that #3 is what we are hoping for, then we are on the way with 2 projects, Siana AND Mapawa, to add to the RED share price - I have got bored just looking at the DCF valuation on Siana alone as a valuation tool for RED, there's nothing like having the blue sky of a BIG exploration play to add real excitement into the mix.


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## auscan (26 May 2010)

that reminded me Beatle .. 

GE said numerous JV enquiries are coming in -- 

He didn't go any further into who or how good.


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## beatle (27 May 2010)

HI Auscan, and that's interesting you mention about JV inquiries. But my view is that at this stage there is tons of blue sky in Mapawa, but no big company will take a view on anything significant until the next couple of holes confirm the likelihood of Mapawa developing into a bigger animal. Until then IMO any JV proposal will be firmly waited in favour of the incoming party, with out-clauses at minimal exploration spend. Thus its better to go wholly into it with the possibility that it might fall over, but with much more upside to any proposed deal coming in if the next holes outline great potential.

I do like the view that RED goes it alone at Mapawa, and possibly entertains some how linking in Mapawa to Boyongan down the track, that would give a very exciting future, even though Philex is a small player and not capable of assisting much with the major capital expenditure, the amalgamation of the 2 deposits would be very exciting if we know that Mapawa has a big tonnage to it as well. But of course until Mapawa is more fully defined Philex would be seeking the major part of any deal and that should not be contemplated until we know how big Mapawa could be!

With this rising gold price I hope that Deutsche Bank see the benefits of moving fast to offer the finance, it would be good for RED to set in concrete the gold loan tranche of that debt finance (and also good for RED to do some forwards covering some percentage of the open pit resource ozs if the bank will allow it).


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## auscan (27 May 2010)

Beatle .. I think RED is simply flattered by the proposals but prefers to remain footloose and fancy free at this stage.

They are encouraged by the finance situation, progress in mine development planning, milling equipment obtained and initial results of Mapawa, so while they are nicely cashed up why would they want to share the soon to be seen rewards after such a long period of waiting.


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## anderbond (31 May 2010)

Hi auscan and beatle, IMO footloose and fancy free is the best way to go! Reminds me of me(lol!). One of my friends has now increased his stake by  800,000 shares, so the message is getting through to many smaller holders. Globally, I can't see the gold price dropping much as it looks to me to be in a longer term upswing as many Governments continue with their money printing programs. Still, the gold price is notoriously difficult to understand and predict. There is thinking that the gold price is continually being shorted by JP Morgan and a couple of other major investment banks. If this is so then sooner or later you would have to think it will move higher, but who knows?
Beatle, unfortunately Cadel could not finish on top as he was battling illness but 5th is still pretty good. But how about all the Aussies winning ALL of the Giro secondary jerseys! Sensational stuff! And of course Mick Rogers won the Tour of California! Go Aussies! Go RED!


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## beatle (1 June 2010)

Anderbond, yes I agree that footloose and fancy free is best for RED at the moment with Mapawa. I assume not having got any announcement in the past week re #2 we are not going to see one now until #3 is being reported on, as Auscan mentioned earlier.
With regard to the gold price, I agree its been a wild unpredictable ride, but so long as its around US1,000 and above then RED is at a HUGE discount, so the bargain hunters as you note yourself must be slowly building up reasonably big positions. I have no doubt that there will be a time when we ALL kick ourselves that we didn't load up to the brim! I am already heavily committed in RED, but will buy more again once the finance is confirmed, as then there is no threat to it not developing the project from that point and it will be a steal at whatever that price is (the thing that bugs me though is that i am sure as the financing approaches that RED's share price will have moved up already - its a shame that some people are closer to the news than others, even though in the case of RED I believe the management are very straight batters!).
With regard to the cycling, to be honest I didn't follow the Giro D'Italia in the final stages as I got sidelined with some other business which kept my head down, but now its getting closer to the Tour de France, so thats the event I love to watch on tv each night. (seems we should be well represented by a few aussies that have got a hope!).


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## hugh_jarzz (2 June 2010)

Hey Beatle....did you see this little gem? I assume Sr Domingo was talking out of school, and talking about Mapawa, but interesting! The CG.


Phoenix-based mining firm interested in Surigao project
ONE OF the world’s largest miners, the Phoenix, Arizona-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc., has expressed interest to invest as much as $5 billion in a mining project in either Kalinga or Surigao del Norte, a Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) official said. 
“Freeport-McMoRan is willing to invest as much as $5 billion in the Siana gold project in Surigao del Norte, which is operated by Australian miner Red 5 Ltd.,” Edwin G. Domingo, MGB director, told reporters late Friday. The firm is also studying the Batongbuhay mine in Kalinga.

Mr. Domingo said Freeport-McMoRan Executive Vice-President for Exploration David W. Potter met with him and Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) Secretary Horacio C. Ramos two weeks ago over the Siana gold project.

“The amount of investment will mainly rely on the results of drilling in the site, and Mr. Potter said they are willing to invest as much as $5 billion, which is almost as big as Xstrata Copper’s $5.2 billion investment in their Tampakan copper-gold project in Mindanao,” he said.

The Siana gold project in Surigao del Norte is already in the construction and development stage and is expected to start mining operations anytime soon, Mr. Domingo said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Domingo said Philex Mining Corp. has allocated P200 million to P300 million for exploration projects this year.

“Philex has a budget of P200 to P300 million this year for exploration projects. They have properties in Southern Negros and Zamboanga,” Mr. Domingo said.

The government official added there was a possibility of LG International Corp. forging a partnership with Philex Mining in one of the latter’s projects.

Meanwhile, Mr. Domingo said an investigation team was sent last May 26 following the suspension in November of the environmental compliance certificate of Intex Resources ASA over its Mindoro Nickel Project. “The DENR has created and mobilized an investigation team, and results of this are expected by June 4 at the latest,” Mr. Domingo said.

The government suspended the environmental permit of Intex after local government units in Oriental and Occidental Mindoro picketed DENR’s office in Quezon City.

The local governments claimed they were not consulted on the mining project’s impact in their respective communities.

“Intex doesn’t have any problems with MGB with regards to permits and other papers, so after the DENR has resolved the issue, there are no further problems with their mining operations,” Mr. Domingo said. -- Kathleen A. Martin


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## beatle (3 June 2010)

Hugh_Jarzz, I hadn't seen it and I'm staggered with the comments, but of course they may have been taken out of context by the press? I guess the upside is that provided Mapawa comes up with the goods it means that we have a real ride ahead, even after Siana finance comes through?

Its frustrating just waiting around, and watching the share price gives nothing away at the moment, but I suggest that if the finance is about ready to be granted and announced maybe the price and volume will give us a sign -then IMO its all systems a go, and RED up and away!


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## beatle (4 June 2010)

I refer to the comments previously by Hugh_Jarzz et al elsewhere, and a further article by some filipino journalist 

http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/259706/copper-firm-invest-5billion-rp

quoting MGB Director Edwin G. Domingo regarding "...Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc, world’s largest publicly-traded copper company, has expressed interest to expand mining investment in the Philippines to as much as $5 billion with its vast and contiguous exploration prospects ". The above noted weblink does not refer to RED in the article, although another filipino press refers specifically does refer to RED

:http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=11771

“Freeport-McMoRan is willing to invest as much as $5 billion in the Siana gold project in Surigao del Norte, which is operated by Australian miner Red 5 Ltd.,” Edwin G. Domingo, MGB director, told reporters late Friday. The firm is also studying the Batongbuhay mine in Kalinga.

It therefore appears that the reference to RED may have been taken out of context with the further comment by MGB Director Edwin G. Domingo regarding Freeport-McMoRan involvement with RED, BUT as jonnyboy relates elsewhere on HC and I agree entirely, is:

"I think the main thing of note is the Philippines government is actively trying to attract big miners to the Philippines as the article states the "government pursues incentives for mineral development and processing" this can only be a good thing for Red."

Further to that, clearly with the election out of the way and the newly elected President winning with a clear majority, someone who has already spelled out a message of wanting to develop business in the Phils, there is NO likely increase in sovereign risk unlike Australia where uncertainty remains to overhang the mining industry. The benefits that RED get from investing in its Siana gold project, and the inducement to explore at Mapawa, is NO capping of its potential rewards from profits, and in fact RED will actually get a further inducement from the taxation regime in that it will get a tax-free holiday for the first 50% production indicated on mining/milling schedule. If Mapawa comes up as a viable independent project, then THIS ALSO, as a separate project, will qualify for tax free status of the first 50% production! 

(Mr KRudd please take note of that!!! Mr Henry, you really believe that your idealogy has not increased sovereign risk in this country - I would like to know what your definition of sovereign risk is!).

Anyway, RED has got all things going for it, apart from its share price, which I can't see sitting at this level when the finance comes through!


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## mgm1a (8 June 2010)

Yawn at SP.

Two upsides that market need to check out.

Firstly, with recent movements in POG to $1200+ and AUD/USD off its 90c perch (however temporary it may be I'd hope they could grab some Fx cover) & moved to just under 100% ownership of Siana, my NPV model is now suggesting an SP, in cents, that unbelievably starts with a 4. 

I have in past been reluctant to ascribe any modelled number beyond "mid- to late 20's" as being realistic, but with market changes & RED having been fortunate in past with its timing, so maybe they can get the finance, get some cover for both POG & Fx secured, to get closer to a 30c+ (choke! splutter!) number.

Secondly, I listened to the MML's Singapore small caps preso and check back on their preso slides of 10/5/10 and on a map they show a dot for the Siana project as being " >2moz". Do they know something we don't?  Well they are in the neighbourhood and in same business so... maybe!


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## beatle (8 June 2010)

Hi Mgm1a, I concur entirely with your comments and view on discounted cash flow basis with regard to Siana value currently attributed to RED share price based on the current gold price, of around 40cents (compared with a current share price of 13 cents - unbelievable!).

I wasn't exactly what you meant about RED increasing its holding to 100% (I know you are aware of RED now having acquired Merrills interest by making it a subsidiary) and this gives RED effectively 97.6% stakeholding in Siana, but actually its not possible for them to hold any more due to the legal requirements of Philippines law regarding MPSA's - the other stakeholding I understand is held by RED's employees in their (equivalent to) super fund. This also enables RED to comply with all the requirements of Phils law that enables them to get the tax break for 50% of the life of Siana gold production (unlike MML which cannot qualify for such since the MPSA is held by a different legal entity and MML works via a production entity owning the processing facility, which doesn't enable the tax break to be valid). (I am not trying to rubbish MML's circumstance because clearly they are producing a lot of cheap gold due to efficient mining of a high grade underground resource).

I also am interested in your comment about MML having got Siana dotted as a +2 million ounce deposit, maybe they are also referring to past production to some extent, but that also maybe is a reflection of how differently MML has successfully sold it to the market. I hope RED can take a leaf out of the book of MML which is close to surpassing market cap of $ 900 million! (Cf RED market cap of $ 130 million).

RED still does need to put away the finance, and I understand that the banking syndicate are basically there now but require a slight variation to the lending entity, being the consolidation of Greenstone and Merrills, before the final finance is offered unqualified! This will take some minor variation on the legal establishment of the consolidated corporate entity. (I understand it could be another 4 weeks for this to happen).

I agree that RED has been fortunate that the gold price continues at these high levels and it is frustratingly close now, and it would be good for them to put away some hedging - I personally favour forwards IF the banks will allow that without any margin calls up front, and that this should cover 70% of the open cut mine recoverable ounces. I have a sneaking suspicion that the board may favour puts (which will cost some millions) or put/call collars (which can be established at nil cost).

Come on RED, maybe only 4 weeks to go now!

Lets see how it works out.


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## chowur (9 June 2010)

Hi All,
I have not seen any comment on the political stability of the Mindano provence in postings of Red. It is quite unstable which may have an impact on the price of extracting gold. Not wishing to rain on anyones parade:
Private armies control much of the provence see maguindanao massacre 23rd November 2009, other areas are controlled by Moro Islamic Liberation Front MILF(not the American Pie milf) also National Peoples Army NPA. Noi Noi Aquino the new president of the Philippines may not be open to corruption but much of the government is. 
Just my 2 cents worth, chowur


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## beatle (9 June 2010)

Hi Chowur,

With reference to political stability and security, the Surigao del norte province is in the most stable and secure part of Mindanao and has been part of the historic mining zone for many decades (when siana was mined previously firstly as an open pit and associated underground workings). Both MML and RED have demonstrated that in parts of Mindanao secure geological and mining activities can be undertaken with complete safety and the backing of the local communities. 

There are parts of Mindanao that definitely are less secure and present much more of a threat to mining activities, but RED's location is not in one of those areas. Yet there are also mining operations in some of those areas and have had no disruptions, and I refer to the TVI operation down in Zamboanga province as one good example. Tampakan is also in a less secure area, and does not have the same level of community support that RED has enjoyed (in a similar way to MML) - by the pro-active support both of these companies have developed with the local communities. This support was demonstrated in the case of RED by no party opposing the environmental licence application for its Siana development.

If you are uncomfortable with sovereign risk, I suggest you start to consider pulling your investments out of Australian mining operations, either developed or yet to be discovered, with KRudd demonstrating its likely capping of company profits to support and prop up other floundering industries!


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## anderbond (9 June 2010)

G'day guys, I agree with Beatle's assessment of the risks involved with both RED's operations and also MML's. They both enjoy extensive community and government support and provide much needed local employment in their respective areas of operation. There is a video of a very recent presentation given by GD of Medusa at a conference in Singapore in which he comments on the local and government support.(among other interesting things).
The RED share price has held up through the recent downturn but can be said to be languishing. As a comparison, I have today been checking the SP of Triton (TON)where the former Technical Director of RED,LG has now taken up the MD position, and note it is trading today at 13c, similar to RED. But there is a HUGE difference in the current state of play, TON is very much in the exploration stages, compared to RED nearing production within 12 months.
The market is a strange beast indeed. I note that a number of Phils based projects are receiving reviews /writeups in overseas e-letters and bulletins, and there is interest particularly from North America/Canada and elsewhere.
I feel that in some ways MML has led the way and shown what is possible with multiple exchange listing, a constant feed of updates ,plus "spreading the news" at international conferences. Let's hope that in the coming period, our senior management pick up on some of these initiatives to build further interest in RED and help push the SP along to levels that at the moment we dream about. AB


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## beatle (10 June 2010)

Hi Anderbond, it remains so frustrating with RED's share price just sitting around current levels with all investors sitting on the sidelines. I noticed on HC that Oramon350 had made a great post (see following) which clearly will add more buyer support to RED:
"FatProphets has started broker coverage on RED last night, with a recommendation to buy. Here is an extract:
"With the price of gold expected to continue to rise, we think now is an opportune time to build an exposure to a low-medium cost emerging gold producer.

Red 5 Limited is a speculative play on gold, the Philippines and exploration at Siana and less so at Mapawa. The stock is recommended as a BUY for all Members".

I am sure this will infuse more life by bringing in fresh new investors into the mix, something that must be a real positive for RED's share price! Maybe the games the current insto's are enjoying with the share price will not be so easy to carry out!


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## anderbond (16 June 2010)

Hi Beatle, are you legal again with you know where? Or just good friends with someone who has helped? Still not much happening but volumes have reduced but seem steady. One would think there is no longer sustained selling or sustained buying so I guess it is a waiting game now for all of us. POG is still heading in right direction so sooner or later the SP will break out. I am tranquil as I have confidence in progress and in management. Still thinking about being there to celebrate first production. AB


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## anderbond (16 June 2010)

Well, having said earlier today volume seemed to have settle, today I see more than 6 M shares traded, so the selling obviously is yet to stop. Presumably it is stiil Anglo, or it could be disaffected holders from the earlier CR from a few years back. But it doesn't really matter in the scheme of things as it won't stop ongoing progress. AB


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## auscan (16 June 2010)

anderbond

A lot of the trades were cross trades, at least at the end of the day when I checked on stocknessmonster.com (including the 2.5 mil)

Some of the selling could also have been panic dumping in reaction to the Indophil News. I've sent an email today to RED 5 asking for clarification on the policy/situation of the govt in the Siana / Mapawa area - no reply yet.


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## anderbond (17 June 2010)

Auscan, thanks for the info. It is possible that the proposed local legislation at Tampakan might have shaken out some nervous investors, but it is extremely unlikely that this would affect Siana's development. Siana is in the north of Mindanao and has strong community support, while Tampakan is in the south and has a history of opposition from the local Catholic Church and others. In any case it seems that outlawing open cut mining is beyond the scope of local legislation according to reports. On another tack, I have just discovered that RED seems to be listed on the Berlin SE, currently at 0.09 euros. In addition, Reuters has recently released a 12 page research report on RED which is available at a cost. Does anyone know anything about the listing or the report please? Beatle if you are around maybe you are up on this? AB


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## beatle (18 June 2010)

Hi Anderbond/Auscan,

Sorry but i've been out of contact the past week, trying to stay away from the market to avoid the frustrations!

As for Indophil and the revelation of a ban on open pit mining at Tampakan, Anderbond has covered the considerable distance of the two RED projects from Tampakan, and further it should be noted that the Tampakan area has long had an element of opposition to mining in the general area. In contrast through the environmental clearance process RED had unanimous local community support. This is more particularly important for any likely future development at Mapawa rather than Siana, as Siana has already been an operating open pit, with the various elements of open pit, tailings dams and various waste stockpiles located within the Siana MPSA area. Thus RED will unlikely be the target of any local stirring that appears to be happening much further south in Mindanao.

As for research reports via Reuters, its news to me Anderbond, and no I have had no recent dialogue with HC, it seems they believe I have been using 2 accounts and therefore will not be reinstated, so I haven't bothered to pursue it any further - I think it demonstrated to me that HC is not a free-speech website that one might otherwise think (probably due to lobbying that certain ASX companies undertake!).

On other matters, again a huge volume traded today (20.9 million shares), and with minimal crossings its a sign that there is considerable liquidity in the stock which is healthy. But with the gold price close to all time US$ highs it staggers me of investors wanting out of RED at such a strategic time! I guess its now only a couple of weeks away from the announcement we all want to read!


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## auscan (18 June 2010)

keep hiding beatle .. it seems to have the right effect

I haven't seen this recommendation myself, but thought I'd relay posts today from hc

"RED got a positive mention on "Your money - Your call" (foxtel) last night."

"Both analysts (one from Wilson's and one from Fat Prophet's)
liked both the fundamentals and the technicals.
If resistance at at 19.5 cents can be broken they had a valuation/target of 34 cents."


have a good weekend beatle ... go the dockers


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## yuyu (19 June 2010)

hi beatles and others

RED had a good day on fri due to the exposure on Sky Business. there were quite alot of buying in 1mil lots. Dont think they are in for a quick trade.

Yes a friend at fat proph has confirmed with me abt the recomm on RED. They have been following it for awhile now but just feel  ok to make the recomm now. I guess as it gettin closer to end of the yr, RED is gettin hotter.

I do no aware of RED listing on Berlin SE Beatle. I would think RED would mention it on their website but cant find anything. May be another stock with similiar listing.

anyway i still holding tight to my core parcel, currently over 1mil and waiting for the pay day .

so what is our target beatle? 34c??


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## fastbuck1 (21 June 2010)

32mil shares went through today who sold and whom bought??????is it a good singh or dose someone know something the rest of the market dos'nt


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## badger7 (22 June 2010)

I was not making a point but a question

Has Red5 diluted the share base  with two many shares and options?

Is management getting too many options?

I still believe that red5 is not well known here BUT a google search brings About 24,600 results (0.32 seconds) 

red5 limited  gold australia


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## maxi68 (22 June 2010)

Its good to see that RED is holding well in todays down day , in the market with a 1.67 million volume... September seems to be the pivot in price direction moving forward being 3/4 of 2010 as was mentioned in an earlier announcement re: mine Developement... Time is ticking away , and seems the stampede will happen Very soon ...only few months to go , and the POG is headed for a prediction of $2000 by years end (as per analysists) it all looks like that the stars are aligning for RED in the coming months and we're only at the ground floor level of our journey


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## beatle (25 June 2010)

Hi All, and my apologies for not posting anything more recently on RED. I am now traveling and will continue to be out of contact much of the time over the next couple of weeks.
I haven't been in contact with RED for a while, so am not aware of how the latest developments are going, other than to know that behind the scenes there is much activity on various fronts:
1. The project finance is being finalised, and the latest efforts have been to reorganise the philippine corporate entities to the bank's satisfaction prior to getting the offer of finance, on the same basis as previously outlined, being a US$15 million facility on effectively a gold loan drawndown at the days gold price (which continues to look good) plus other facilities to the total amount required. I understand that is expected to be completed in the first couple of weeks of july, if not earlier. (I wonder also that maybe the bank wanted also to delay the finance offer to post finalising the handover to the new philippine president to see how things develop, and it seems that handover is going to be very smooth, also knowing the NoyNoy's election is a very popular and positive outcome!).
2. RED continues to complete all project work as required prior to project finance offer, and that entails considerable works about the processing facility and mine locations. RED has sufficient cash in hand to maintain those development works prior to receipt of project finance.
3. Mapawa deep drilling continues, with Hole 3 already in the right rocks, but am unaware of the depth its currently at. Also, RED has arranged for a second drill rig to maintain the momentum of drilling at Mapawa, with that rig focused on the shallower mineralisation expected to hold around 3 - 4 million tonnes at grades from 1.5 - 2.5 g/t gold. This will either be ideal additional feed into Siana, or in the event of success at deeper Mapawa will provide an ideal starter into production on a separate Mapawa operation (clearly much later down the track if it occurs).

Based on the current gold/silver prices and aussie exchange rate RED valuation for Siana alone plus excess cash beyond project finance is
41 cents!!!

That means currently RED is trading around ONE THIRD its technical valuation.

One might be arguing that management have not done much in terms of publicity recently, and I guess with the end of the financial year upon us maybe they are wanting to keep things on hold until some of the other activities come to fruition, but personally I don't think it hurts to make good with their suggestion of the photos on site of current Siana project activities. Maybe they are just holding off a bit, but keeping investors and shareholders up to date can't be a bad thing I would think

(BUT it allows the more bold within our ranks to pick up shares at a bargain basement price!).


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## Tanaka (26 June 2010)

Thanks for the update Beatle,

Looks like everything is going to plan but one has to wonder why the stock has lost 13% this week esp. today with a 7.14% drop on increased volume. 

Maybe time to pick up some more RED


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## mardo (26 June 2010)

I note latest substantial notice  from Bank of America they have bought a further 18 mio in the last month and are now holding 11.5% of red 5 or 112.4 mio shares.Do they know something that we dont as this is a large stake for a major to build in a company of Red 5  size.Surely this must be posative for SP.
I am a holder of Red 5.


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## anderbond (29 June 2010)

Hi Guys, I guess it is possible for BOA to have spent time with senior management as this would be the norm for any institution that is contemplating taking a fairly large stake in a company. Obviously senior management must observe the law in anything that is said, but if my experience in visiting projects is anything to go by, when one is visiting on site and discussing operations/potential, one will pick up much more than is read in a report. Simple things like body language, voice tone and eye contact can mean a heck of a lot in making an assessment. I am very happy to see the level of institutional support on the RED register. Also, we must remember one of Australia's very shrewd fund managers(Mathews Partners) is still sitting there with a very large stake. All in all, as a smaller investor I feel very comfortable with my investment in RED, despite the occasional bout of frustration with the SP and the apparent tardiness of the news flow at times. But a lot has happened over the past 12 months with a lot more to happen in the next 12 months. I still expect RED to help underwrite my eventual retirement. Beatle, wherever you are travelling, I hope you stay safe and sound. Cheers AB


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## beatle (30 June 2010)

Hi Anderbond, (thanks for the personal comments, I'm still away from the screen for the next few weeks - luckily otherwise I might be pulling what hair remains out, strand by strand!). I agree wholeheartedly with all your comments on RED (unfortunately also re the frustrating share price movements), and expect in a relatively short timeframe we will get word re project finance on Siana. I think that the current weakness also won't be helped by end of financial year traders/investors sorting out tax-focused trades. 
I also remain very optimistic about RED, and its future outlook regardless of Mapawa outcome is almost assured based on its holding in Siana! Just that next important hurdle of finance will put the last nail in the coffin of the longer term doubters. Today is also momentous because we have the inauguration of NoyNoy that removes uncertainty for likely another 5 years with political influences, that are also important in Phils.

Of course the gold price has a lot to do with the future share price as well but we remain comfortably above the levels ever envisaged when I believed that RED was worth at least 20 cents, now we can almost double that with gold trading in its current range.


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## mardo (9 July 2010)

This morning a new substancial holder from Bank of America, they now hold 14.11% of Red 5 or 137.8 Mio shares.The good times for this stock are hopefully not too far away.They should now be 2nd behind Mathews Capital Partners as major shareholders.


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## beatle (9 July 2010)

Hi Mardo, seems strange that while BOA are building up a formidable position, the share price remains very lethargic, and investors are giving up their holdings so cheaply. I believe that BOA has helped support the price from sliding further, and its a joke as I am sure they are not buying shares on a punt!

A little birdie tells me that the finance remains some weeks away from being finalised, despite earlier thoughts it could have been completed by early July, so this might feed on the sellers minds a bit more - but remains an opportunity for the more astute believer (as is BOA) to buy it up cheaply!

On other grounds I understand that they now have 3 rigs on site at Mapawa, with a more definitive drilling program now underway to define the upper limits of mineralisation, above about 200 metres or so, while the third of the deeper holes is close to or already at its target depth of around 800 odd metres. I understand that the alteration and lithology suggests there is some likelihood for gold mineralisation, but of course until the core is assayed no one will know for sure!

RED share price is always going to strengthen/weaken with the gold price, but at the moment, with a discount of around 60% to the gold price RED remains very good value if you believe that the finance for siana will be delivered! The quarterly is now only a few weeks away at the very latest!


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## auscan (9 July 2010)

whats their excuse for finance delay this time Beatle?

good to see extra rigs onsite, lets hope drill #3 is at least encouraging


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## fastbuck1 (10 July 2010)

i must say i'm getting a little concerned, in regards to finance ,alls seam to quite with no ann in the past 2 months,


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## beatle (12 July 2010)

Hi Guys, firstly regarding Mapawa. The report this morning is a significant announcement, in that it confirms the deeper extent of (relatively) high grade gold in porphyry and that the first hole was not a flash in the pan - it confirms gold tenor at a grade most likely to be commercial if similar grades exist in the top layers - and that is most likely based on much earlier Suricon drilling which indicated mineralised altered porphyry in a grade range of 1.5 - 2.5 g/t - it only needs to maintain a grade around 1.0 g/t Au from surface to these levels (of around 630 metres or more) to build up a large inventory of ore. I would say that a target upwards of 100 million tonnes around 1 - 1.2 g/t is possible, and if from surface would likely support a major new gold operation at Mapawa standing alone from the Siana development. 
(Hole 2 does also confirm it being outside of the main mineralised zone but the fact it was drilled in a different direction (perpendicular to the earlier hole) and a distance away from that first hole is of no real consequence other than to say it has delineated a likely boundary to mineralisation in that direction (only!).
Its good to see the additional rigs on site as this will speed up drilling announcements, and in entirely different contexts gives an indication that RED management are prepared to spend much more on proving up Mapawa mineralisation, a vote of confidence in it as a separate project and also maybe a vote of confidence that management believe they can afford it since they must also expect the project finance for Siana soon!

As to why the delay for Siana finance, I am not close to the action (nor is anyone outside of the bank I would suggest), but i have my own opinion as to why it has been delayed, but i am not overly concerned other than to say it gives some more opportunity for the less confident to drop shares cheaply to those bolder investors. I am becoming more confident as the days go by though, I have heard no problems from my sources to suggest that its just one of the trials going forward, but should still be bedded down in the early part of August - in the meantime RED continues to use its own funds to develop the Siana gold project, and I understand that soon we will be getting those picture updates on the website that will assist our confidence that the work is getting done in a material sense!

Just remember though, once finance is secured I think RED share price will not be at these levels, subject to the gold price remaining above about US$1,000 (even at that price RED is worth more than 20 cents but the market would be prone to react negatively i suggest if gold karked it altogether!).

I notice that BOA continue to be involved in some funny business with trading, and that just prior to open 8 million shares have traded pre-open, not sure what that might be but i'm sure not significant as a news item!


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## beatle (12 July 2010)

Why did I suggest a target tonnage of 100 million tonnes at Mapawa?
I did a very rough calculation based on simple geometric dimensions of 600 metres (depth) x 250 metres (wide) x 250 metres breadth (pure speculation) x 2.6 t/cu m
= 97,500,000 tonnes ~ 100 million tonnes.
If we assume an average grade of 1.1 g/t Au for 100 million tonnes
= 3.5 million ozs contained Au
If we value Mapawa contained potential gold @ $30/ozs = $105 million
= 10 cps
This is the current potential target value of Mapawa based on miniscule information, but provides some early guidance. If we assume that this prospect at Mapawa has mineralisation to surface then the valuation at $30/potential oz used in this value guidance should be increased upwards.

Its just an indication of what Mapawa could be worth. What it will do if drilling continues to confirm signficant mineralisation and continuity is that RED will be a very ripe target for takeover! Majors will always have an interested whilst the total potential gold ozs of a junior are around 4.5 million (including 1 million at Siana) ozs, at such a low market cap.


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## auscan (12 July 2010)

thanks for the input once again beatle.

with the extra rigs and shallower drillling, any guess re time frame when we can expect the next batch of results?


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## yuyu (12 July 2010)

hey Beatles

i may sound silly but what finance are we waiting for?? i thought the placement was all we need..

have u been travelling around aus in ur little red campervan beatles?? heh


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## beatle (13 July 2010)

Hi Auscan, I would hope that we will get the first news of the shallower drilling by end of this month, for just the first few holes at least - I understand that RED had the second drill onsite some weeks ago so that should have already have drilled some of those holes (I'm not aware of the size of the rig though and what its capabilities are). 

I would imagine that RED will put out a brief commentary in its quarterly about the shallower drilling but have another announcement purely referring to that drilling and its initial outcomes - again, that is speculation by me. And now as RED has stated, they have got a third rig onsite which will speed up the drilling of both deeper and/or shallower drilling - perhaps the 2nd and 3rd rigs are not capable of drilling the deeper holes, that I am unaware of.

Hi Yuyu - with regard to the finance, RED did the big placement (totalling A$45 million odd gross) to assist with the funding of Siana's development, but it is to be accompanied by a US$40 million debt facility to finalise development at Siana, and that project finance is being lead managed by Deutsche Bank with another major financing group (Ashmore). All the technical due diligence of that has now been completed and they are down to the legals and associated corporate arrangements now to complete that task. Whilst nothing is over until its over, I am of a view that this finance will be bedded down in early August. (Currently all the development works is proceeding with RED cash in bank and is not holding up the development schedule to any major degree that I am aware of).

With regard to your question Yuyu re the RED beatle and me being on holidays traveling, all I can say is that you are psychic Yuyu, and IF you can pick the market like that then you will driving more than the Nissan soon!!!

GO RED!!!


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## beatle (14 July 2010)

RED is starting to move up, is this the final chance to get shares prior to the re-rating that is long overdue?

In my estimation Siana has a discounted value, to RED, of 36 cps based on current gold/silver price, and with cash in bank amounts to 38 cps. 

Holes 1 and 3 into the deeper gold mineralised porphyry at LSY prospect Mapawa confirms that the mineralisation is likely to extend to at least 600 metres depth, and based on some possible dimensions of 250 metres e-w and n-s, is likely to delineate around 100 million tonnes at about 1.1g/t = 3.3 million ozs based on an SG of 2.5 tonnes/cubic metre (a realistic bulk density in such altered rock - note, water has an SG of 1 t/m3!!!). 

Mapawa has the potential to dwarf Siana, but based on the limited drilling to date, PLUS the surface trench sampling which confirms considerable mineralisation in the +1.0 g/t up to 2.5 g/t range, thus a very conservative initial estimate of 10 cps for Mapawa is suggested.

Thus RED valuation is:
Siana      36 cps
Mapawa  10 cps
Cash        2 cps
Total      48 cps

RED is sitting on 15 cents today after indicating that finance is about 2 weeks away! Thus RED is substantially discounted, sitting at 31% of my valuation, which has got considerable upside on Mapawa results indicated!

I think its time for RED to start revving its engine - as an interesting aside I understand that RED is likely to be involved in some overseas presentations in North America at the end of this month.

Mapawa gives RED the potential to be a significant takeover play with majors, bearing in mind the potential to host more than 4 million ozs, 1 million of which is Indicated status with full bankable study completed and ready to go. AND RED has got a number of other porphyry targets within both Mapawa and SIana MPSA's yet to be explored!

Go RED, GO UP!!!


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## fatsoh (14 July 2010)

hi beatle - spoke to CFO, joe mobilia

BOAC are buying on behalf of others - RED don't have details on who they are, hence the anns to date

a fund manager has been buying up quite a bit recently

they are pleased with channel sampling at mapawa (pronounced ma/parwa) 

he referred to this phase in siana developement as sort of boring with not much to report - he mentioned that reporting for reporting's sake doesn't help anyone - i tend to agree

he suggested i keep the faith and that not everything, timewise, is under their control

auscan also contacted him re finance - joe told him delay only from meticulous bankers


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## beatle (14 July 2010)

Thanks Fatsoh, its good to know that the word is slowly leaking out that RED is ready for blast off!

I have personally got a lot more confidence as the result of the Presentation released today, particularly as it brought forward slightly the expected date of the finance, which I had been led to believe wouldn't be finalised until early August. It seems the penultimate condition precedent referred to in that Presentation is nothing difficult to finalise and its the only thing holding back the final offer of finance.

I understand that a fund manager, that has got some powerful overseas backers and is waiting to enter ONCE the finance is announced, is watching it closely - that group will only enter once it achieves certainty of finance and usually tries to secure around 5% or slightly higher of any investment stake - in the case of RED that amounts to around 49 million shares minimum! Just imagine if the fund tries to take 49 million shares in RED - that will put a floor on RED from now on I would imagine.

I have started to buy more now, and although I'm considerably overweight in RED already I can see a time soon when the demand will push the share price beyond 20 cents with no turning back, so I think this maybe the last chance to get shares before the big push upwards over the next couple of weeks.

With regard to Mapawa, since the surface sampling already confirms considerable mineralisation +1.0 g/t, I think my early value guidance of 10 cps is actually far too conservative, and will immediately rerate RED as an outstanding BUY and target for gold majors seeking a cheap entry into a gold province with secured MPSA's. Mapawa is only 1 of the porphyry prospects, with a number of others already delineated in the Siana MPSA, eg Madja, just imagine if there is more activity on those prospects, RED will become RED HOT!

I think investors need to re-evaluate RED compared to MML (which is relatively close geographically) but which has already got a low cost production profile albeit with less indicated resource ozs cf RED, noting that MML market capitalisation is 755 million - RED market cap being 146 million! That suggests the potential for RED to move TOWARDS a share price 5 times its current 15 cents, ie 75 cents once in production plus whatever Mapawa etc adds in value to RED!!! That compares to my current conservative value for RED of 48 cents if we conservatively value Mapawa at 10 cents!

I can see RED at 30 cents quite soon, particularly if the fund manager that is watching it decides to enter the market, and from then on its only way will be up as it moves closer towards production!

(MY excited view of course!).


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## beatle (15 July 2010)

Some very big special cross trades first thing this morning, totaling just over 64 million shares, presumably a friendly arrangement either between related parties (but different entities) or an agreed arrangement between parties. Since the total is just over 5% we are likely to see a substantial notice in the next week crop up explaining the share movement. I don't see it as anything other than a possible sign of things to come:
Clearly we are at a vital time for RED, with expectations of announcement of finance, the quarterly report advising the market of latest status of development at Siana, and latest drilling at Mapawa (shallow holes PLUS the additional assays from the deeper Hole 3 already with the already announced mineralised 290 metres intersection).

RED share price is firming up, I can see the price moving up in the next weeks in anticipation of good news developing - and since funds management groups are involved they won't be playing too softly once the finance is finalised if they want a significant additional stake in RED!

With Mapawa already demonstrating likely potential to host upwards of 3.3 million ozs of gold, plus Siana holding 1 million ozs of gold, RED is surely a very strong takeover target now! The Insto's involved must be aware of that possibility too, so I can see the share price moving north rather rapidly soon!


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## mgm1a (15 July 2010)

Beatle -keep up the whispers from the frontline.

I believe Ross Stanley has left the register today ..todays cross trades were 39,642,769 and 24,547,264. The Red website lists May shareholding, and one of the Ross Stanley holdings is for, coincedentally,  *39,642,769 *shares . So if that one has gone then probably his total.


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## beatle (15 July 2010)

Thanks Mgm1a, and an interesting observation re Ross Stanley. I guess we will know sooner than later if his substantial holding has been removed, but of course it might be just that he has rearranged his share ownership to another related entity (if it was him, but your observation of the number of shares is interesting). (I understand he was the reason for one of the new directors coming on to the board a few months ago, so it would surprise me if he has decided to leave the scene so soon after that board appointment, but of course things can change quickly too).

It was a bit of a disappointment to see the share price fall away this trading session, but with the days getting ever closer to finance announcement day I can't see the share price sitting around current levels for long.


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## mardo (15 July 2010)

hi mgm1a

I think you are correct as ROSS stanley had 24547264 in one of his substancial holdings notice dated 14/11/2008, so thats one part of the mystry.
Regards  Mardo.


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## beatle (16 July 2010)

A few points to consider:

On the investment side of things:

For every seller there is a buyer. If we have just lost a substantial shareholder, then we have just gained at least one and possibly two more interested and supportive investors! I am more than happy to know that someone who has already made a good quid in RED has been able to exit without any undue pressure on the RED share price whatsoever, and that/those new investor/s now have a cost base of 15.5 cents, not something like 3 cents! 

I understand that RED management are preparing a roadshow in North America just prior to the expected time for announcement of project finance. That timing is very positive as it will allow more potential overseas investors to consider RED just as the market becomes aware of full steam ahead on the finance and development side! 

As I pointed out previously, there is an un-named fund manager with very strong overseas backing who is currently looking at a significant investment in RED (potentially more than 5%, ie greater than 49 million shares) SUBJECT to finance being finalised. This should increase RED share price immediately once finance is offered, provided the Fund makes that decision to go ahead!

On the project side of things:
The Siana project continues its development without being delayed whatsoever with the project finance, from RED cash reserves. 

Mapawa is now being drilled with 3 rigs, and around 2 shallower holes are being drilled each week. I understand that RED intends to maintain news flow on Mapawa to report around 4 holes each report, so we should see a continuing news flow from around the end of this coming month. Mapawa has already demonstrated continuity of mineralisation and grade at deeper levels, and if shallower drilling continues to confirm that then Mapawa is likely to become a major second focus for RED and has the potential to become a huge stand-alone project, probably attracting gold majors that would not have an interest in the smaller (1 million ozs) Siana gold project.

On the valuation side of things:
Siana NPV 36 cps
Mapawa   10 cps (initial highly discounted guidance only based on rough potential of 100 million tonnes gold project)
Cash         2 cps
Total       48 cps

This valuation is a theoretical value which does not take into account trading momentum BUT suggests the price to which RED share price should gravitate towards - except if Mapawa mineralisation moves closer to confirming a 100 million tonne resource at 1.1 g/t Au, then the value will increase as technical information for Mapawa becomes known.

Relative valuation to MML, a company with similar landholdings in Mindanao located less than 200 kms from Siana/Mapawa, but with an increasing gold production record suggests RED could move TOWARDS a market capitalisation around $700 odd million, ie a share price moving TOWARDS 5 x current share price, ie around 70 cps


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## fastbuck1 (17 July 2010)

Beatle i have had a very positive outlook on red , however i now have concerns regarding the 64mil crossover that has taken place so close to the pending ann regarding finance, the question needs to be answered why someone {speculation its Ross Stanley}would sell such a large holding when were only weeks away hopefully a positive ann  that has most of us thinking   this will be the catalyst to .30+ , sure there was a buyer at the other end of the sale, im just starting to think theres a rat trapped in the sewer pipe.....regards ...fastbuck


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## beatle (17 July 2010)

Hi Fastbuck1, I understand that you, as we all do, have some concern whenever a substantial shareholder sells out. As I did explain in my previous post, the exit clearly was very clean with no downward selling pressure and it went to either 1 or 2 parties.

Who knows what Stanley's own personal situation is currently and what his cash requirements are. We do know that he bought at the bottom of the market and has made a stack of cash in the past couple of years. I also agree that at the time of the calamitous share price drop in late 2008 we all saw him as our saviour particularly as it appeared RED had lost its way, but actually he didn't do anything other than buy shares whereas at the time we thought he might use his shareholding to change the management at that time when we were not so happy with things. But those times are now well and truly behind the company, RED has completely changed in its status as we all now know and RED now enjoys a considerable increase in institutional support. 

I have recently queried the company about the status of the finance, which I see is the only thing holding back any doubt as to whether the project will be developed within the next year, and I have had it confirmed, as have others, that all is on track with the bank offer. 

I understand the final documentation on the debt finance offer is already very close to completion, and its likely the bank will be completing all things BEFORE the end of the July, but with some of the board traveling to N America soon and then Diggers and Dealers in early August the final acceptance of the finance might still be as I had understood it previously, to be the end of the first week of August. BUT there may well be a Trading Halt at the time of the bank offer so that such sensitive information is not leaked out, the only reason why that might not be called is if it will take more than 48 hours for RED to have the final bank offer vetted by a consultant.

I think its also important to consider that Stanley, whilst our past saviour, and a smart man with his previous investments such as Equigold etc, is not necessarily in a position to know any issues that could affect the future course of RED - he was instrumental in having Bolitho included on the board very recently but I suggest no board member would be crazy enough to ever jeopardise their position in providing sensitive information to any shareholder, particularly of the size of holdings that Stanley had! 

Finally I understand that the development of Siana has NOT been delayed whatsoever with the way the development has proceeded, even though the bank finance has been put back the past couple of months. 

RED board made the call that it would continue to fund the project, in a careful manner, from cash reserves prior to receiving the bank offer, and in any case, had no intention to draw down the bank portion of the funds until later to conserve costs of the borrowings (not that it amounts to much additional cost in the overall context of the funding). Therefore, Siana development remains on schedule to produce first gold in April 2011 - 10 months from now! Once the market appreciates that fact, along with the finance acceptance, the share price WILL move upwards, and I understand with considerable buying support from existing and other interested insto's leading the way!

My only concern now is whether the gold price will remain at these historically high levels, and I have already commented a number of times abut the benefits of hedging, despite many investors arguing against it. I believe that at a time when gold remains in a trading range that is so much higher than previous and way above cash costs of production, it allows considerable profit to be made if some proportion of gold is locked in. And I believe whilst it might be more marketable to say that the gold is locked in more flexible put/call options, I think that some level of gold forwards is much better due to the lower cost and the realisation that you can always roll them if not in the money! (And at todays gold price cash costs are a mere fraction of those prices!).

I have actually been buying more shares the past week Fastbuck1, as I am not deterred one bit by Stanley getting out. I thank him for his past efforts, I thank others for giving us the chance to push it up much higher from here on!


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## Moit (20 July 2010)

Hi Beatle, hi all. First of all i'd like to introduce myself. I'm a long time reader and a first time writer. I've been so intrigued with what everyone has been  posting in regards to RED of late. (ie, finance, development of Siana, and drilling reports at Mapawa) 

However I too was a little concerned with what happened last week, re, the very large parcel of shares, that were sold. I just cant fathom it. If it was Ross Stanley, why would he sell out now, when we are so close to the ann we've all been waiting in anticipation for... He must have had a valid reason and as with what beatle said, who really knows what his cash requirements are..

RED held up quite well in yesterdays trading, considering the market, RED having a low of .135 and the current gold prices taking a little dive, from record highs.

Beatle i really like your valuations and the information you provide to us all. It all seems extremely positive. Lets hope it all pans out the way it should. Keep up the good work Beatle... Come on RED

Regards Moit. I am a holder of RED 5


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## beatle (20 July 2010)

Thanks Moit for your kind words, and lets hope that we all can benefit as RED shareholders in the short (and longer term), I really do believe that the market has missed the true value with RED for whatever reason.

With regard to Stanley (if he was the seller and it seems likely that he was), its almost as if he had divine intervention and was told of the drop in gold price! But in any instance I have re-jigged the valuation model based on the latest changes to gold/silver/fx and as you will note the value of Siana to RED remains way above market prices! The valuation is based on discounted cash flow of Siana and is conservative in that it assumes 4 years tax free status whereas RED has recently confirmed the life of Siana mine, based on reserves, of 10 years plus, thus tax free status is actually 5 years! 

Siana Valuation:
Based on - US$1,180/oz gold, US$17.50/oz silver, Aus/US$ 0.865
RED (Siana value) = 35.6 cps
Cash                  =   1.7 cps
SubTotal                  = 37.3 cps

Additionally for guidance, initial Mapawa = 10 cps
Total RED = 47.3 cps

Regarding those large sales, if the 2 sales are linked (bearing in mind the total was 64 odd million but in 2 parcels of 39 odd and 24 odd millions) then there must be a notice of whoever was the seller and (if linked) who was the buyer, as it was a substantial trade in total (>5%). But of course its not the company that must report, its the shareholders themselves, so the timeframe that they report can be more tardy as the ASX doesn't have the same powers to force shareholders to report! (Especially the seller who seems to lose interest pretty quickly, I wonder why!).


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## Moit (21 July 2010)

Hi all, once again, thank you for your input beatle.

I notice this morning an ann regarding the 64 190 033 million shares bought buy baker steel capital managers, which in return would make them a substantial holder of RED, approx 6.60%. Bearing in mind, thats still doesn't answer the question if indeed Ross Stanley sold out. But as beatle mentioned, the seller would lose interest pretty quickly !!!

I guess that ann does answer our question we've all been wondering, and its great news that theres still people, companies out there that have a little faith in RED...

Regards Moit


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## beatle (21 July 2010)

Hi Moit once again, and I'm happy to see you're continuing to post on RED - the more posts from various inputs the better I believe!

With regard to your comments about Baker Steel, I think there are some very strong positives regarding their position:
Firstly, they are a long term investor, not in it for a cent turn or so, they will be in RED for a long time if the company performs as promised. That means 64odd million shares are now tied up for quite a while.
Secondly, Baker Steel do not invest in spec stocks with little promise, they are into growth stocks, and have been associated with many successful gold stories in the past - this effectively gives another tick of approval to RED by a significant fund manager.
Thirdly, I have been told previously that RED is being courted by another Melbourne based fund, and that fund will not become involved until the debt finance is approved. That fund, generally takes a position no less than 5 - 6%of any stake in its target companies - ie around another 50 million odd shares. I had wondered if this stake purchased by Baker Steel was that Melbourne fund, but clearly its not as Baker Steel is UK and Sydney based! Therefore if that Melbourne fund gets involved, after the debt finance is announced, you can imagine how many shares will be hanging around without a home at the current price, bearing in mind that RED is now trading about 38% of its Siana value! RED shares will likely move up with that additional buying pressure IMO!


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## Moit (21 July 2010)

Hi beatle, i agree with you 100% about posting on RED. The more the merrier, which in turn has to be a good thing. Thats why i thought i'd start to post. I was sitting back everyday, just reading, thinking i should be getting more involved. Mainly because, it is a company, that i and my father, believe in and have a nice little stake in. Certainly as long term investors, definitely not for the short term... How ever he is a little ill-informed with computers, so i tend to pass on various bits of useful information, from yourself, anderbond, fastbuck1 and the others, all in relation to RED 5's development and how things are progressing and so forth.

In relation to baker steel, i actually thought, that the 64 0dd million shares that were traded,were in fact the fund manager you were talking about last week and that they had already bought in and weren't waiting for the go ahead with the debt finance approval. As it now turns out, we have baker steel, and still the possibility of another fund manager entering RED 5 as a substantial holder. Lets just hope with what you were told, RED being courted by a Melbourne based fund manager is in fact the case and the debt finance ann after approval, then things should truly be looking rather golden for RED and its shareholders...

Great talking to you beatle, chat soon.


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## beatle (21 July 2010)

Hi Moit once again, and you thought exactly the same as me about Baker Steel and the other yet-to-buy fund manager. Its exciting to think of that extra investor possibility. 

Also consider the next couple of weeks from a news flow and activities point of view:
1. Quarterly out in no later than in 1 week - and probably due out late this week (because if the main executive directors are over in N America from 26th July (Monday) so they will probably want to report before the weekend arrives);
2. Mapawa drilling - I would imagine that RED would want to put out a release on the shallower drilling BEFORE the quarterly to keep that information separate to what is the (summary) quarterly report update. Thus its possible that Mapawa news will be out tomorrow (thursday) with quarterly on friday.
3. Project finance offer likely in latter part of next week - with possible trading halt for RED management to get their heads around it. But this might happen early the following week, when there is all sorts of goings on with Diggers and Dealers happening in Kalgoorlie.
4. The outcome of any investor support coming out of RED's N American road show is likely to happen through the course of next week.

Thus there is limited chance from tomorrow to get RED shares before some probably significant news items coming out!


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## Mister Mark (21 July 2010)

Hi Beatle, Moit and all others that contribute to this post.
I am a holder and was and still am wondering why such a large holding would be sold at what would seem so close to a long awaited and anticipated anouncement.
Does anyone know if Ross Stanley is involved with or has an association with Baker Steel, could this explain?
Thank you for your contributions, i have been reading for some time now and learning from your posts and lets hope this goes the way we all want.


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## mgm1a (21 July 2010)

Mister mark - from Oresearch website:
QUOTE
Ross Stanley–Executive Consultant - Ore Search Limited

Mr. Ross Stanley has been involved in the mining industry in Australia and Africa for over 40 years. Starting in Australia during the 1970’s he founded a contract mining services company, Stanley Mining Services (SMS) and built it into a globally recognised organization within the mining industry. SMS was listed on the Australia stock exchange in 1997 and was later taken over by the American group Layne Christiansen. Mr. Stanley later resigned from the company he founded, but the company continues to operate in Africa and Australia to this day.

Mr. Ross Stanley has been involved in a number of successful mining projects. The most recent of these has been his involvement with Equigold NL (Equigold), which was listed on the Australian stock exchange in 1996. Mr. Stanley is a major shareholder in Equigold and until recently a member of the company’s board of directors. Since being listed Equigold has developed three gold mines in Australia, two of which are currently operating and is at present constructing the treatment facilities for the Bonikro gold project in Cote d’Ivoire. The first gold to be produced from this project is scheduled for May 2008. Mr. Stanley was instrumental in the initial entrance of Equigold into Cote d’Ivoire. 
END QUOTE

A coupe of things to allay concerns re his selling:-
From the little I see; he has a skill for investing in early stage companies and whil Red has been around a while (!!) it is about to take a step up to development / pre-production, so maybe he prefers to being closer to the action when that happens. 

I wouldn't get stuck on why people sell - if you need the money in anything less than a long term time frame then leaving it linger on market is just plain risky. Christopher Browne (Tweedy Browne fame) has a lovely story when he learnt that a client casually mentioned in passing he'd be buying a house and that he had the whole deposit invested in stocks -Browne immediately persuaded him to sell it all - the clients needs had changed and he could no longer assume Risk. He also happened to nicely avoid the '87 Crash.


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## mgm1a (21 July 2010)

Regarding Baker Steel 

Its important to note that they have come on board with ALL of their 64m shares with sell from Ross Stanley - they didn't have any shares prior and hadn't particpated in the cap raise.

They must have been seen the presos back then - they could have taken a bite back then - they have now achieved same price and for the sake of a couple of months they have removed some risk knowing that the CR was successful, Mapawa is shaping up,(as has POG) but other than that the story was the same back then!!

This makes their buy more significant - & haven't just taken a small bite.

Beatle - my guess is also for consecutive ann.s - I had commented previously they seem to like spacing news ann.s out over 2-3 days rather than all at once. Do you know why directors going to US?


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## beatle (22 July 2010)

Hi Mgm1a, some points well made re the seller and the buyer. For mine, Baker Steel buying in is a real tick of approval for RED going forward, they have done their due diligence and consider it a good price to enter knowing that project development is going well and the price remains highly discounted!

With regard to the N American visit, I'm not aware of specifics other than to know there have been roadshow presentations prepared in the past weeks - not the same as the latest presentation, so I guess we should also see that new presentation released to the market early next week, perhaps on Monday.

Its interesting to see that Matthews Partners is now on the breach of the takeover limit again, having worked their way back to that position after losing some of their %age due to the placement etc. 

Now I'm waiting for the project debt to be announced and some follow up buying from another Melbourne based fund. That will be an interesting phase IMO.


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## beatle (23 July 2010)

RED's Quarterly out this morning had no real surprises as the news has been slowly working its way out, but as a reassurance to the doubters out there, the Quarterly is tremendous news, as official company confirmation that ALL IS ON TRACK for an APRIL 2011 FIRST GOLD POUR!!!

RED share price is likely to be re-rated as a matter of this news, and the imminent bank debt offer announcement should spur those last doubters to change their minds about whether RED will ever produce gold.

With the gold price still strong, RED based on Siana alone, has a value approaching 40 cps, and with Mapawa continuing to excite shareholders about a possibility of a major porphyry gold/copper project in the making, the potential for a RED being taken over looms close - especially with Matthews Capital close to the takeover 20% level - their holding is highly strategic in the possible event of a major gold player wanting to take RED out!

I can see that takeover premium allowing for RED share price to move up towards relativity already enjoyed by MML, thus RED could move towards a target of around 70cps in the coming 9 months as project moves towards first production!

Go RED Go!


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## Huitzii (23 July 2010)

Hi all I jumped onboard at open this morning after I noticed a strong buy recommended by Macquarie ,it all looks good for RED all on track is great news , I might just short this one , time will tell,for now I will just watch it closely for a good exit point.
Good luck to all holders


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## beatle (23 July 2010)

You make a good point Fatsoh about why the RED Quarterly is out a week early, and actually it was expected due to a few things happening next week:
1. Senior executives are traveling to N America for a roadshow (and whatever else - remember that Boyongan is owned by Philex, of Canada) and will therefore will be unavailable for the majority of the week to attend to news flow.
I assume the main reason for the trip is to alert interested parties of how the company is progressing, especially as soon thereafter the project finance is likely to be in place.
2. As with most companies RED likes to put out its main information regarding various activities under their own headline announcements, with the summary only in Quarterly reports. I had actually expected the Mapawa latest drillholes out yesterday, prior to the Quarterly today, but to be due to awaiting drill assays. Its possible that an announcement on Mapawa has been prepared for release in their absence, but I would not expect RED to do that as they are quite diligent in attending to announcements on a methodical (read slow, haha) basis, and likely to be announced on their return.
3. The project finance announcement is unlikely to be out next week for the same reason of executives being in N America, but its possible that RED, upon its offer being provided, goes into a Trading Halt, but probably that is unlikely whilst Senior executives are overseas (as the TH should be attended to within 48 hours).
4. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a Presentation Update released on Monday, to coincide with the N American roadshow - and it will have a bit more in it than the previous Preso released a couple of weeks ago.


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## beatle (23 July 2010)

Beware, I am NOT a technical trader, and therefore my technical analysis is limited. It would be good to have someone more adept to comment on ASF about RED's technical trading outlook...

I am aware on another chat forum that someone is interpreting RED's price chart as forming a cup and handle formation, interpreted in this sense to be positive. 

I see a similar pattern appearing, but its not a cup and handle, it appears to be the base of a big bottle of bollinger, haha. RED is going up, and will soon be in uncharted waters, trust me!!!

RED is NOT the same ugly duckling that it was years ago, now it has got a real gold project in Siana, lots of cash in the bank, huge blue sky at Mapawa, and a brand new shareholder base that will push RED to new highs soon. 

I AM a fundamental analyst, and my fundamentals suggest RED can get to 48 cents based on current share price, with more likely based on successes at Mapawa. And from a relative pricing point of view, could move towards 70 cents to compare it with its (long distance) neighbour MML.

Red is going to fly shareholders to the moon, FINALLY!


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## fastbuck1 (23 July 2010)

Beatle a north american road show could mean a listing on the tsx, now that would realy put a rocket under red.....


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## beatle (23 July 2010)

A very interesting point Fastbuck re a N American listing, and I have no doubt it could do wonders for increasing the exposure of RED shares to other market investors and push the share price up. In fact CGX has been thinking about removing its ASX listing, bearing in mind its major asset is Masbate in the phils, as a consequence of most of its investors are N American insto's, and possibly opening it up to a HK listing as well!

Canada and N America seems to take on Phils minerals projects far more readily than Australia so it would be a positive, but I think that RED management don't really have a plan to remove its ASX listing or whether it wants to also extend to a N American listing. RED is different to CGX in that it has got a widespread of aust based insto's on its books, whereas CGX is more focussed to the N American insto's/funds.

One thing which I did fail to see earlier, and for that I apologise Huitzii, is your comment that there is a strong Buy recommendation by Macquarie for RED. I didn't see your post as I was so excited about reading the quarterly and realised the share price was moving up and due to move higher. (I also bought a few more shares in RED this morning, just to top the portfolio up again!).

Go RED you good thing! (If Macquarie is now also pushing it then it means RED is beginning to open up to more and broader based retail investors, as well as insto's and fund managers.


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## fastbuck1 (23 July 2010)

another 4 mil os crossing after the close, getting more exciting by the day ,the more shares tied up by insto's the more upside pressure will result when news on  finance is released.......


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## beatle (23 July 2010)

I like your conclusion Fastbuck, and agree with it too! In fact I wouldn't be surprised if we see a real move up next week once the overseas news filters through via management presentations how cheap RED is. To be honest in my entire investment career, which covers 42 years, I can't remember a share that is sitting so cheap on the market, based on fundamentals already well documented by the company and others!

Its just the doubters lingering due to previous inaction by the company, but if people don't realise that RED has really pulled its finger out and is finally gaining traction now, then no one can ever say they weren't told - us longer term RED shareholders Fastbuck will finally get the reward, and my only thought is, how many shares am I satisfied to have! I don't want to be greedy, but for me this is a once in a lifetime chance to make some easy cash! (Of course always subject to no market crash or gold price crash). I have been in the market the past week buying more, as I know once we hit 20 cents the sky is the limit!

Personally I can see a time soon when RED will be traveling northwards of 30 cents, and we will be asking why we didn't buy more! The fact that Instos and Fund managers are only now starting to get hold of stock, at prices around the placement price of 15.5 cents says to me that they are not in it for making a quick buck! Once the loose shares are gobbled up, they are going to be held till a rerating has happened, and since that will be guided by fundamental analysis we can safely expect 30 - 40 cents trading within the next few months in my opinion.

Sell at your peril, isn't that your favourite saying Fastbuck?

Good luck to all long term RED shareholders, we all deserve a change for the better due to our perseverance!


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## Huitzii (23 July 2010)

This is the chart that I done this morning before placing my order (5:30 AM) after seeing the Macquarie recommendation, yesterday the 10 day average crossed the 68 day average giving a positive buy signal which as I said was confirmed by Macquarie research.
If RED can break the 15.5 cent resistance on Monday morning I think we will be in for a good week.
I am by no means a chartist and am only in my second week of live trading (and surprisingly making fair results) so make what you will from my chart and defiantly don't take my advise for anything.
As fastbuck1 has already said 4 mil late trade today im keen to see who it was that bought them and more importantly who sold them?



DYOR


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## mgm1a (23 July 2010)

What a great day, but probably due to whole market being up??
I had earlier commented on cup and handle in April on ASF,

QUOTE
I note on the chart that there is now a (bullish) cup & handle formation from the mid-Nov point to now. Also note that the 30 day moving average has just gone upwards through the 100day M (aso bullish) ...so maybe something more positive will happen.
END

when I did comment it looked cleaner at that time what is does now! Still based on that the next (resistance?) target would be 15.5 +(18-11)= 22.5 which seems reasonable next step to me given that earlier NPV were heading about there when gold was $1000+

I think Herc's cup and handle over many years and with target 30 is too much at the moment.


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## mgm1a (23 July 2010)

I've been pondering the Baker Steel link with top 2 blokes being ex-Merrill. Given that they would have "cred" it seems possible (speculation here before you read on...)that they were they ones who availed themselves of the 11mm shares that Merrill Lynch Futures may have had to loan out for shorting during the recent months. 

It would feasibly explain why they had no holding until after Merrill sold out that holding, besides they couldn't morally sell short and put their clients into RED! Now they they (I emphasise this pure speculation on my part)  have stopped they could them load up themselves and clients!.

Today I could almost hear the sound of the vacuum cleaner as the loose odd-mill holdings were getting hoovered up !!


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## fastbuck1 (24 July 2010)

Hi  Huitzii , can you post the Mac recomendation would be keen to have a read....regards fastbuck........


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## beatle (24 July 2010)

Mgm1a, why do you say that Hercules target of 30 cents is too high - are you referring purely to charting interpretation? I assume that his target is based on a long time period, and certainly one that will take beyond RED actually getting into gold production in 9 months (April 2011).

As you will agree, from a fundamental valuation RED is extremely discounted, with Siana alone accounting for just over 36 cps at current gold price, and a little extra for cash (~1.5cps), and Mapawa in uncharted waters but likely to add considerable to the Siana base valuation.

With relativity and the premium usually accredited to gold producers, and bearing in mind the market capitalisation of MML having similar production profile (albeit lower cost per oz) there is an argument RED could run up towards 70 cps, subject to gold price staying in the current range.

I know I am a bullish commentator on RED, but fundamental valuations do finally come home to roost at the time of gold production from every stock I have ever followed unless there is either a problem with the production or there is limited reserve life - both of which are not issues for RED at Siana. Siana will be a long life, low cost of production operation.

Mapawa has the potential to be an even bigger deposit with a gold inventory around 3.5 million ozs plus from my rough calculations (albeit based on a few holes of information which are following the classic porphyry gold/copper deposit type so far, and is similar to Boyongan except that Mapawa seems to have much higher gold values from surface, based on trenching information, whereas significant gold mineralisation at Boyongan starts below 100 metres depth!).


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## mgm1a (24 July 2010)

Beatle - no my opinion re 30c is that seems unlikely in the immediate short term. I had in mind where the SP should now (give or take a month) be sitting. 

We have some time to go and still operational plant to bring to reality, hence while my NPVs modelling are also well north of 30+ (like yours), the low 20's would be a solid short term achievement to create support, given there are still risks & unknowns ahead before April-11.


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## Huitzii (24 July 2010)

fastbuck1 said:


> Hi  Huitzii , can you post the Mac recomendation would be keen to have a read....regards fastbuck........




IMHO the fundamentals look good,the chart looks promising and Macquarie recommendation settles my nerves a tad, as I said earlier im probably not a long term holder and .20 will see me just fine.
I dont see any reason that RED wont make .20 in the near future ...watch this space 




DYOR


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## beatle (25 July 2010)

Thanks Mgm1a, I don't have a problem with your comment regarding the price outlook in the shorter term, but in fact I interpreted Hercules charting analysis to be for a slightly longer period, including the start up of operations. Thus my outlook remains more bullish, but in fact there could well be a significant run up beyond 20 cents if it breaks 19.5 cents as that has been the cap over the last few moves up. Each time in the past it has fallen over after failing to break the cap, but this time with the outlook being much more positive I am confident a break through to mid-20's is the first test.

And of course, the outcomes on Mapawa results could substantially change those fundamental analysis numbers - if it shapes up to be another Boyongan (but with mineralisation at surface) then I can see it breaking very quickly beyond the 30's and not stopping!

Thanks Huitzii for you attachment from Macquarie Edge - I note that the analysis was also involving Wilson HTM, thus clearly the signs are that RED will now get coverage from a much broader retail broking base, which adds to the interest already being taken by Fund Managers!

Things look good for RED in the next short while, from all of: An investor support viewpoint, An activity viewpoint, An announcement viewpoint! Bring on the project finance announcement!


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## Moit (25 July 2010)

Hi all, hi Beatle. I noticed on Friday you were an extremely excited man. Post after post. I was reading your posts, whilst at work, thats part reason why i havn't been in touch of late.

Huitzii, thanks for your info on Macquarie Edge, a strong buy recommendation is always pleasing to know. Maybe you should convert yourself to a long terma, and enjoy the ride, ha ha.. 

Just a couple of questions beatle. Are we expecting any anns in the next 2-3 days other than the results for drilling at mapawa? Also could we find a trading halt Thursday or Friday, or is it to soon just yet? Possibly early next week maybe? Reason why i ask, im looking to buy more, possibly tomorrow.

One last thing, thanks everyone for your input. Lets be realistic, we all want RED to fly and it certainly will in due course. Hopefully after the debt finance approval and results from Mapawa drilling. With a bit of luck it does break through that resistance level of 19.5 cents and creates a new support level, well beyond the 11.5 cents where used to.. An old saying i go by. Theres no point being pessimistic when you can be optimistic, and lets face it, with expected anns, the current gold price, and the future of RED, why shouldn't we be. The sky's the limit...

Go RED, its a new week


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## beatle (26 July 2010)

Hi Moit. Firstly reference to excitement - having been in RED for more than 13years now I am very excited as I can see it finally come to fruition, and there are a number of us longer term RED shareholders that will finally be relieved after all the years of frustration. Thus the argument that RED will give a great return is all dependent upon when one has entered onto the register! Having said that, I now have a considerably greater shareholding, and can see the likelihood of it more than doubling in price soon subject to to gold price, general market conditions, when the project finance is announced and the extent of success at Mapawa.

Re - imminent ASX releases. Well my thoughts middle of last week (ie prior to the quarterly coming out) was that I thought there would be a release re the first couple of shallower holes from Mapawa on Thurs and the Qtrly on Friday. I had assumed those releases because I was aware that senior management are making a trip to North America to give some roadshow presentations and I understand that they flew out this afternoon (sunday). I got the Qtrly release timing right, but the Mapawa clearly was not out due to the assays being not completed. I would assume its unlikely that it will be out during the time of senior management being away, so assume it won't be out this week.

The fact that I know they were working on a few changes to the presentation suggests that they will give an update presentation, possibly on Monday that incorporates some of the news out in the Qtrly prior to them presenting in N America.

As for the finance, its possible that the bank will provide the final project finance facility offer, with documentation, this week but unlikely they will act on it with the senior management away, thus I believe it could be early the following week, bearing in mind that is Diggers and Dealers week and the bankers and RED will be attending (but not presenting) in Kalgoorlie. Its likely that will be the time for an announcement which maybe preceded by a Trading Halt - but also noting that a TH usually is only 48 hours and this may not be sufficient time for RED management and any consultant they may bring in to vet that offer document to make a decision. 

I would suggest you have enough time, during the whole of the week to trade, but the following week could see plenty of action - also noting that N American investors maybe also well informed and interested to participate once the finance and mapawa information becomes available.

I remain very excited, the next weeks should be very telling in the history of RED!


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## Moit (27 July 2010)

Hi all, hi Beatle. I noticed this morning there is a new ann. re, investor presentation. Siana gold project- Philippines- North America July 2010.. I'm not sure how significant this info is, as it is all fairly old news to us, but maybe not to however management are trying to get this information out to. 

Can you shed a bit of light on this please Beatle.

Regards Moit


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## beatle (27 July 2010)

Hi Moit, and you are quite correct, that the news in this latest Presentation is basically the same as what has been well understood by our local market for a while, and including the more recent updating of investor changes etc.

The previous Presentation of 14 July 2010 actually gives more detail regarding the project, but its all about the audience you are talking to - clearly this is a higher level investor presentation to give a snapshot overview.

The one point that I find significant, bearing in mind we are now at 27th July and that Presentation is current, it refers to the closing of debt finance expected in late July 2010! That means we may see an announcement out this week! That surprised me!!!

Apart from that though, the positive of this Presentation is that we know management are now reaching out further afield to alert the broader investors internationally of RED and Siana's likely development. Hopefully it will also alert the bigger gold players of RED's activities and particularly Mapawa exploration. 

I would expect that we should have at least some investors at these Presentations start to consider RED to be a possible investment at the time of the debt finance, thus increasing the demand for shares within the next weeks! I would like to know where the presentations are happening, and aim to find that out on management's return.


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## Moit (27 July 2010)

Hi Beatle, i agree with you entirely regarding todays date and the date expected for the debt finance approval- late July 2010. It does seem that it may be out earlier than expected, possibly this week like you said and todays presentation was just a reminder for current RED shareholders and possible new investors that this is the potential for RED 5 and this is where we are headed...

Beatle in your experience and theoretically speaking, how far could this finance ann, then Mapawa results push the share price. I know your not a psychic, but could this be the re-rating of RED that we've all been talking about?? It would be nice to finally break through that 19.5c barrier and never look back...

Once again thanks for your input Beatle.


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## beatle (27 July 2010)

Hi Moit - I am really peeved as I answered your question and was just reviewing what I had written when the whole damn screen fouled up! So here goes with my second attempt, Lol!

I agree with your comments, but you ask the $64 question! 

As I have mentioned before, the fundamental value of RED attributed solely for Siana is mid-30's cents, plus whatever Mapawa may be seen to be worth (and that is a moving target at present). At the time of gold production being achieved generally companies trade at a PREMIUM to that underlying fundamental value, plus the value attributed to exploration assets.

Clearly the finance announcement removes the final impediment to Siana project development, and therefore any doubters playing games with RED share price at the moment must seriously consider those doubts. Whether there is an immediate re-rating beyond 19.5 cents is hard to answer, and depends upon a few other facts, including:
1. Gold price sentiment;
2. General market sentiment;
3. If there are investors wanting to get in once the finance has removed that final risk of development. I have mentioned previously that I understand 1 Melb based insto is seriously looking at taking a position once that finance risk is removed, and that investor tends to take a stake around 5 - 6%, equivalent to 50+ million shares in the case of RED.

IF there is one (maby others) investor out there wanting to take a position of significance then RED share price will not stop at 19.5 cents, but its all a matter of how long they are prepared to wait, and whether the existing investors want to drop shares at a cheap price. Matthews is close to the takeover limit so can't influence the buying side of the trade so easily now.

IF Mapawa continues to prove its potential in the 100 plus million tonnes of around 1.1 - 1.2 g/t gold then we are talking say 3.5 million ozs of gold, which will attract the eyes of bigger gold producers, and this current N American roadshow might assist in alerting those players to consider a big investment in RED as well.

Its an exciting time, and I sure wouldn't want to be leaving things too late to get any future position, although I will probably be encouraged to take a few more once the finance is announced - then it will be the last chance before the gradual or abrupt move upwards toward and way above 19.5 cents is achieved!


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## beatle (29 July 2010)

Substantial Shareholders

The remainder of the doubters (if there are any left!) regarding RED ever moving to higher share prices must surely must reconsider there view now with this latest announcement of Lujeta also becoming a substantial shareholder recently. There are now three substantial shareholders, being:
Matthews 19.2%
Baker Steel 6.0%
Lujeta 5.1%

Each of these investors have put out announcements to those shareholdings recently, therefore they are unlikely to be in RED for a quick buck, and in the case of Matthews Capital, it has been a loyal cornerstone investor in RED for quite a few years but lost its percentage stake only due to the big placement made within the past year. Matthews has regained its major equity holding only recently though, so you can assume its not there to sell out cheaply at current prices.

Strategically the combined shareholdings of these substantial shareholders is now 30.3%. That is significant for two reasons:
1. It keeps 297 odd million shares out of the reach of traders in the stock! As these bigger stakeholders mop up loose holders the availability of cheap shares (at current prices its trading at around 1/3 the estimated worth of the combined Siana, Mapawa plus cash in bank) it will become increasingly more difficult to buy into RED at these levels. 
2. In the event that Mapawa continues to confirm a likely gold inventory of PLUS 3.5 million ozs of gold with continued drilling, RED as a takeover target of major gold producers becomes increasingly on the radar! If a major gold producer decides to take a major position in RED, it can attempt to buy on market 19.9% and if it were to do a deal with the substantial shareholders a major could acquire 50.2% of RED, ie effecting majority control of the company!

I would love to see another announcement of another substantial shareholder being declared!

Of course, for any producer, or any other major investor to consider such a stake in RED, firstly it must attempt to mop up 19.9% on market, which is likely to push the share price up considerably, although behind the scenes it might be able to do a deal with some of the other 20 plus instos now on the register to scramble together a strategic stake. Sure as night follows day though, no insto will want to let go of such an investment just as RED is to move into the final phase of development of Siana without extracting full value for its investment in RED!

I have a feeling that we just need one other insto, yet on the register, with an appetite for RED to set the spark for a move up! What is likely to light that spark is RED announcing it has finally got debt finance for Siana development, and we know that is days away now based on RED's latest presentation - I wonder how the N American roadshow is going, that might bring out that one investor to push RED to new highs!

In my opinion, RED is ready to POP (UP).


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## fatsoh (29 July 2010)

hi beatle - prolly every chance there is at least another sub holder on the way - after all, BOAC (merrill lynch) have been buying on behalf of others

re ross stanley, it has to be remembered that his initial sub holder notice was reached on a 34mill + volume day (10/11/08) - no way in the world was his sub holding achieved via regular on market buying - imo, certain deals have been done between parties leading up to final finance/production timelines

he has arranged to sell outright - i would be more worried if he had been selling down on the sly


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## beatle (29 July 2010)

Hi Fatsoh, good to read your last post, and I agree with your view entirely. With respect to Stanley, it simply would have been a real pain if he had put an on-market sell order in place but of course he would have also ruined his own chance to get a reasonable price and at the same time get his sale through in anything like the timeframe he would obviously had preferred.

It still remains unclear why he chose to sell just at this time, but he putting into the hands of such a respectable funds manager as Baker Steel to me gives it a vote of confidence in the project and actually a reassurance to us smaller shareholders that things remain on track as we understand them to be! The next vote of confidence, the debt finance, should see more investors flock in or insto's add to their existing holdings IMO.

I am amazed that parties continue to sell stock at 15 cents, and I have actually bought some more today as I think its now only a matter of time before the heavies start to push this up, but why would they want to do that now whilst there remain these weak holders! (Absolutely unbelievable IMO!).


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## beatle (30 July 2010)

RED Valuation

Whilst gold has now stabilised at a slightly lower level to around US$1,167/oz, RED's share price has remained fairly steadfast around 15 cents. 

On a valuation of Siana alone, RED is worth around 33.5 cps (+ cash ~1.5 cps + Mapawa value?). 

We are now on the last trading day of July, and with RED having put out a presentation just a few days ago indicating that project finance was likely to be completed by end of July, one would expect that we are now at a very defining point in time: RED either will announce the outcome of finance very soon, or create deafening silence by announcing nothing! 

So far there is no announcement. I still stick to my thoughts of a few days ago, bearing in my mind that senior management have been on a N American roadshow (traveling back now?soon?) that it is most likely that the finance announcement will not be made today, and its possible that with Diggers and Dealers commencing on Monday, that RED will call a Trading Halt in the first part of next week. That TH will be to consider the offer that is presumed to come from the Deutsche Bank syndicate.

I still expect that the positive announcement of project finance being accepted will increase the interest in RED and its shares should move up to reflect the removal of the last impediment to project development at Siana, for first gold production in April 2011.

If I am correct with the timing of the announcement, if its a TH that is called early next week, THEN there is only a short timeframe for investors to get set prior to a likely gap up in the share price thereafter. REMEMBER that there have been three substantial shareholder notices (for increase in holdings) in the past weeks, thus those major shareholders will not want to diminish the value of their investments, they may be in fact motivated to buy some more shares to give the price a help along. Additionally, any risk adverse investors (such as the Melb insto that I have referred to that is eyeing RED at the moment) is likely to step in to take some shares on removal of the TH.

I wonder how many days there are now available for investors to avail themselves of the cheap RED shares now on offer! (I even wonder how much I will be kicking myself about not getting more now - but I am absolutely full to the brim!).


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## Moit (30 July 2010)

Hi Beatle, hi all. Wow its currently 1.40pm and i have never seen volume so low since being a holder of RED 5. Approx 51000... Maybe even the smallest of investors have gotten wind of what is about to happen. No one wants to give up there piece of the pie, not even the day traders... I wonder why, lol

Im actually thinking Monday the 2nd of August for the trading halt beatle. Did you know when management where getting back from North America ?? It seems to me that this is all part of their plan, to get back from N America then launch their attack. Lets hope its well thought out, and well executed...

Red is holding up extremely well considering the market and gold prices etc... Their in a nice position for the pending announcement early next week...

Come on RED!!!


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## beatle (30 July 2010)

Hi Moit, and you are correct about the thinness of trading. Its surely a sign that all are waiting which way it goes! 

I don't know for sure which day the RED managers get back from N America, but I do know that they intend to be at Diggers and Dealers, so I presume at the very latest they will be flying tonight our australian time for the long trip back - bearing in mind they would probably have to get to perth for sunday when the flights start from perth to kalgoorlie IF they are going to attend the first day, which is most likely! (They would be pretty tired by them even if they are flying business class which assumedly they are!).

I am feeling quite excited about the fact that its close to D-day, but still relaxed about the announcement happening, but not so relaxed about the exact timing - bankers have their own agenda! I know that RED management have done as much as they possibly can to facilitate the process but financiers don't live in a real world from my past experience (they tend to believe that the world revolves around them, which in this case I guess is sort of correct if we consider the share price of RED to be important for RED and our future benefit!).


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## beatle (30 July 2010)

Moit, the other announcement which is due out within the next week or slightly after that time (of course subject to it being newsworthy) is the release of assay results for the first two shallower drillholes at Mapawa. 

If these results are good, and any mineralisation above around 1.0g/t (or even less than 1 g/t arguably) would be considered a great result and would definitely confirm the likelihood of a significant resource being attained from Mapawa and should re-rate RED accordingly. This would be a great follow up announcement to the debt finance offer announcement and should keep the momentum going for RED's share price!


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## Moit (31 July 2010)

Hi Beatle, yes you are quite right in regards to the shallower drilling results for Mapawa. Ive been so excited about the debt finance ann, that the Mapawa results were kind of put at the back of my mind. Lets hope it is reasonable , grams per ton, quality, then we should see RED really propel. 

The sky is truly the limit in regards to RED 5 at the moment. Ive now bought my final lot of shares, {well for the time being anyway} and i think the time when i really start to get excited will be the day of the trading halt, if there is one of course... Then we'll definitely know the finance ann is only 48 hrs away...Cant wait... 

Go RED...


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## Huitzii (1 August 2010)

I got a bit bored today so I had another close look at the RED 5 chart.
Take note of the rectangular box,5 out of the last 6 trading days it has been bouncing off of the 15.5 cent resistance line with low volume.
IMHO this week we will see RED 5 break this 15.5 cent resistance line if it gets some investor support with some high volume.
As we know Macquarie Research have started to support RED 5 as a "strong buy" this could well be the push that RED 5 needs to head in a northerly direction.
Does anyone know if they have secured their finance yet? Or is this news yet to come? ....hopefully Monday  
I'm open to views on this chart as im only a learner with chart analysis and any guidance would be appreciated.
Upwards and onwards to 19+ cents hopefully
DYOR


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## Huitzii (1 August 2010)

News on proactive investor website another helping push for RED
 Monday, July 12, 2010
Red 5 sees potential for gold-copper mineralised porphyry at Mapawa
Red 5 (ASX: RED) has reported that a 254 metre intersection at 1.2g/t gold and 0.16% copper was recorded in follow-up drilling at the Mapawa Project in the Philippines, confirming potential for a gold-copper mineralised porphyry.

Hole MDD003 recorded the results within a broader zone of assays returned to date of 290 metres at 1.1g/t gold and 0.15% copper, also from 380 metres.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...pper-mineralised-porphyry-at-mapawa-8532.html

DYOR


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## Moit (1 August 2010)

Hi Huitzii, 2 things, first of all and just regarding finance, it is imminent, forecast for the end of July. We are expecting a trading halt in the early part of this week, so no information can be passed around before the announcement...

Secondly, drilling results at Mapawa, as on proactive investors web site, dated back to the 12th of July. I'm pretty sure those results were from 14th of April. On that day RED 5 opened at 19 c and had a high of 19.5c and closed at 18.5, as a result of the porphyry confirmation at Mapawa. We are expecting further results, possibly this week or next in regards to the shallower holes drilled... Please correct me if i'm wrong Beatle. I know you can go into a little more depth, than what i can... 

Just keep in mind Huitzii, our main focus for this week is the debt finance announcement, it is very exciting times as it is the one huge and significant step to be taken for the project development of Siana. As Beatle said with a bit of luck the momentum will follow through with the, expected results from latest Mapawa drilling which in turn will keep heading RED 5 in the right direction, UP.... It should be a great week..


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## beatle (2 August 2010)

Hi Moit and Huitzi. Moit you summarised it well esp regarding the finance, and no one will know officially about when/if the offer happens before RED announces it (and whether they will call a Trading Halt or not) but RED has certainly made it known that its expected any day now (refer to the latest presentation)! And thus if Huitzi has got a good hand on the technicals then we can say the stars are becoming aligned, even the gold price has pushed up from the lows of the week to end at US$1,181/oz and that is a wildcard we simply can't predict.

As for the shallower drilling it should be noted that based on historic Suricon drilling of the top levels at LSY prospect, Mapawa (the former owners of the lease) RED has previously referred to an expectation of a resource totalling 3 - 4 million tonnes at shallow depths less than 100 metres, grading between 1.5 - 2.5 g/t. That suggests the top levels of these shallower holes holes at least should have significant mineralisation. Note that RED's comment about that historic Suricon drilling is that there was insufficient certainty to be able to regard those resources as JORC compliant, but that doesn't mean that it won't become a JORC resource in due course with more compliant recording and attention to detail regarding drilling/sampling/assaying techniques required under JORC code guidelines.

I feel that this week is going to be an exciting week, and to boot the Diggers/Dealers are on at Kal so there is likely to be lots of time for rumours and news to float amongst those attending, lets hope RED becomes a popular topic of discussion amongst delegates (in a positive way!)


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## beatle (2 August 2010)

On another matter, I have become aware of another poster on HC which has posted on RED, referring to it being worth no more than high 20's based on fundamentals of Siana, and making very uninformed calls regarding the potential (or lack of potential) economics of Mapawa (poster bsredoje). 

Those ill-informed comments are completely without any reasonable basis whatsoever, both the Siana fundamental value referred would have to be based on some significant discounting of the existing cash flow model that competent and very experienced consultants have developed for Siana, and/or using excessively high discount rates for the NPV calculation. It should be noted that the cash flow model forms the basis for the bank syndicate that is looking to offer the finance to RED for Siana's development. It should also be noted that the cash flow analysis previously used by Southern Cross Equities for their valuation used a further discounting of the consultants cash costs to come up with their analysis along with the assumption that gold would fall below levels towards and down below US$1,000/oz. Furthermore, the tax regime being used for Siana will INCREASE the NPV beyond that released by RED, as it will allow for a 5 years tax free period up front, whereas RED at the time of publication assumed a 4 year tax free period.

Additionally, comments that Mapawa will require billions of dollars to develop, take 10 - 15 years to develop, that porphyry deposits require high copper grades in excess of 0.16% Cu are all fallacious. IF Mapawa was to become a 100 million tonne deposit, with mineralisation from the surface or close to surface down to 600 metres, with a grade of 1 g/t or more gold, then it doesn't need Cu mineralisation to make it profitable but any small percentage of copper could increase overall profitability. Also, it doesn't necessarily require development over a 10 - 15 year timeframe. Its very existence in an area with substantial infrastructure in place cannot be overlooked, its not in the highlands of PNG or in the Andes of Peru, its sitting within a bulls roar of power, water, labour, transport etc. 

I only comment upon this as I believe that ill-informed posts are very dangerous and in this case can be easily persuasive when the audience may not have a technical background to comment on it. I do have a technical background and the argument put forward is erroneous and provides mis-information to all that read it! 

I may be a bull on RED but I am not full of bull!


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## fastbuck1 (2 August 2010)

Hi Beatle in regards to hc poster whom i must admit asked the question and got an answer that stired up a hornets nest.....low to mid twenty's what a joke and can only be regarded as laughable what was failed to be mention is that the in groung gold price will be worth much more once the plant is up and running, and the poster also failed to mention why we now have so many insto's on board?????surerly not to make a lousey .05 cents per share and sell out at .20 i really think the figure in mind is more like .50 per share....regards fastbuck....


                "if you want to make a fastbuck do'nt buy the share i hold"


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## beatle (2 August 2010)

Hi Fastbuck and thanks for your comments. Before I reply I want to completely DISAGREE with the "disclaimer" you put on your post...""if you want to make a fastbuck do'nt buy the share i hold". You still hold RED shares, therefore how could I agree with your disclaimer, when my view is that RED holders will get a huge bump up in value in the next short period of time, Lol!!!

As for Mapawa, I would like to make the following observations:
Petard's post is entirely accurate, that in the event that Mapawa cannot support its own plant then RED has already indicated the intention to truck higher grade ore the 30 odd km's down the road to Siana. 

BUT, in the event that Mapawa can support its own processing facility then clearly RED will not truck the shallower ore from Mapawa to Siana as it does not give the same economics. Just note, that Siana has a long life mining operation that will support its own processing facility for at least 10 years. If you add another few years of processing Mapawa ore to Siana you don't do anything for the NPV at all (after 10 years the discounting of time value results in minimal return).

If Mapawa can support its own operation then it is by far the best outcome for a few reasons:
1. You get economies of scale on the mining and processing, with a plant that is focused solely on recovering the economic minerals, likely to be principally gold and by-product copper, possibly with a little silver. (Note that Siana processing facility is based on a rated capacity of 1mtpa with no floatation circuit at present unless zinc is to be recovered from the deeper primary ore).
2. You get parallel gold production from both Siana and Mapawa, thus annual gold production is substantially increased beyond the approximate 100,000 ozs sole production from Siana regardless of whether that processing facility is treating ore from Siana alone or in combination with Mapawa ore feed.
3. You don't cop the additional trucking cost from Mapawa to Siana.

As for the economics of Mapawa, of course its early days now, but we have got some solid mineralisation from deeper drilling, which is continuing with 1 drill rig to plumb the bottom potential of Mapawa, plus 2 rigs concentrating on developing the shallower resource in terms of distribution and grade tenor. 

What the posters (and analyst who appears to have been quoting generalities of porphyry systems worldwide with the comments about "billions of dollars capex" and "10 - 15 year development period") fails to realise is that Mapawa will only cost significant amounts of money to develop if a HUGE resource is defined, and if say only 100 million tonnes of ore, amounting to around 3.5 million odd ozs of contained gold is defined then a relatively smaller processing facility, maybe sized around 8 - 10 million tonnes per annum and costing maybe a couple hundred million dollars. Its horses for courses, so the generalities that have been used to "cast away the real value of Mapawa" has been mis-information. 

AND what has failed to be noticed is that LSY is shaping up to be a significant GOLD porphyry with minor copper, not the standard mixed metal (say copper or copper moly) plus gold credits that have been developed in many other parts of the world. And as I have mentioned previously, Mapawa infrastructure does not demand the challenges that others developing huge porphyry projects elsewhere in the wilds of the world, such as many of those located in PNG or Indonesia, or high in the mountain ranges of South America. Mapawa is located close to a small regional city (of Surigao), it has power, water, access and labour sitting on its doorway. The comparison is significant to others being used as the generalisation for Mapawa development!

I should also point out, and what seems to have been lost by analysts and posters on HC regarding Siana potential, the last resource upgrade PRECEDED the final drillholes that intersected considerable additional wide intersections of gold at around 200 odd metres depth, thus the comments of blue sky below the deepest underground is not the only blue sky, there also is considerable upside to the resource laterally along strike at open pittable depths! This could considerably impact on final pitwall boundaries in year 3 onwards, to support a longer mine life of the open pit phase and allow considerable additional gold production from the open pit.


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## Huitzii (2 August 2010)

RED done its usual and couldnt break the 15.5 cent resistance line, we need the finance announcement to break out of this resistance so it can head north.
Still waiting patiently 
DYOR


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## fastbuck1 (3 August 2010)

Beatle whats your veiws on todays trading?? looks like someone is dumping.......share holders could be starting to get restless due to no ann regarding finance.....


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## beatle (4 August 2010)

Hi Fastbuck, yes its the $64 question, and of course I don't have an answer either, it could have been dumping, but if you looked at the sellers side at the close (maybe its still there) there were 23 sellers, most of which I think it was 17 shares each for sale, at 14.5 cents! So someone was certainly playing some kind of game to make people think lots were trying to get out.

You and I both know from our history with RED that they tend to have a very poor understanding of meeting timeframes, and actually if the finance doesn't come soon it may well be out of RED's hands as the banks have all the control in this situation. BUT what RED has failed to realise (once again!) is put out a time expectation on the closing of the finance - and unbelievably (and i commented on it at the time!) only 1 week ago they were still of the belief that that closing would be by the end of July! So one would imagine they still had a fair degree of confidence to put that out so close to the deadline! (I don't need to remind you of how long for RED to put out that initial JORC resource for Siana back in about 2004, it went from quarter to quarter, same with the granting of MPSA title!). 

So Fastbuck, the ONLY thing i can suggest is that IF the time does slip then its still unlikely to have a major impact on the development schedule, but subject to it being announced within the next month then we are going to be looking at some more cheap shares on the market! But i don't believe it will be the insto's selling, it will be the smaller HC type investor who punts on something that expects a return within a short period of time. I will not be selling, and I may be buying more if the price drops back to 12 cents or thereabouts.

Good luck to all RED holders.


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## beatle (4 August 2010)

I stand corrected - in my last post I was referring to possible seller manipulation due to the number of sellers "wanting to get out" each with 17 shares for sale, actually its 21 sellers each wanting to sell either 177 or 178 shares. What a lot of rot! (Surely there is some guard that the ASX should put in place to at least investigate such trading activity!).

In my view RED remains one of the best BUYS in the resources sector, but it will have its day soon enough - then it will be too late to get back in!


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## anderbond (4 August 2010)

Hi Guys, back from trip to Japan. Didn't notice any small investment opportunities there but wasn't really looking. Also didn't manage to divert across to the Phils unfortunately. However have watched all the RED action. A little puzzled over the Ross Stanley sale. I note he sold at 16c to Baker Steel. If my memory serves me correctly, I think he paid approximately low    8c for most of the holding so nice profit but still a puzzle with so much more to come. The Baker Steel acquisition is very positive as the company is highly regarded for its resources expertise including smaller gold stocks. In a blurb on them it says
"Baker Steel researches and models gold mining companies in a value- oriented and fundamentals-based investment process. The Manager undertakes extensive company visitations,and constructs discounted cash flow models for the individual mines of each underlying company. The Manager looks for three key qualities of a compelling gold company investment (1) Quality Assets (2)Strong Management (3)Robust Capital Structure.
The level of experience and technical expertise of the team is the Fund's clearest edges, with Trevor Steel a trained Geologist and David Baker a Metallurgist. Both Principals also have extensive capital markets experience. The other members of the team include geologists and mining engineers."
I must say I feel very encouraged by the fact that Baker Steel have identified the attributes mentioned above in RED. It puts RED into fairly select company as Baker Steel are canvassing many opportunities and has a global market to select from.
On the matter of the RED SP. There is no doubt in my mind that the SP has been manipulated for quite a long time now. In the last couple of days there has been plenty of evidence of this going on, but IMO it has been going on for months. The emergence last week of another corporate investor with a largish parcel purchased on market is proof positive that the dreaded "bots" are busily capping the price while accumulating shares. Obviously for this activity to be successful, there have to be sellers, so it may run on for a while yet. The expected finance announcement should give the SP another legup, but I feel it may yet be some time before we see a really big runup. The "X" factor we need is most likely to be further exciting drilling results from Mapawa.Then we might finally see the "alignment of the stars", to pinch from Beatle. AB


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## beatle (4 August 2010)

Hi Anderbond, good to read that you got back safe and sound, and I note you didn't mention about our mate in Tour de France (such a shame, I watched the night he wore the jaune which was the night he lost the jaune, that stage was very cruel!).

Back to RED, it seems this "interesting" trading activity we are experiencing is managing to destabilise the confidence of some of the smaller investors so whilst that continues I am sure we will see more of the same. What can change it in an instant is if RED puts out a positive announcement on anything, but especially on finance or Mapawa! Its so frustrating though for RED to have put the expectations into the market without delivering on it within the timeframe! 

On the finance of course banks have their own agenda to contend with, both internally with credit committees and subbies, so i guess how far we are down the path is the unknown question. But for me it remains not a case of IF but WHEN it happens (of course you have heard that from me for a number of years and I have been saying it to myself for more than a decade!).

By the way, Stanley actually got his first lot (the majority of his shares) for around (less than) 3 cents! But its been a subject of much debate as to why sell at the time when the water is about to boil!


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## anderbond (4 August 2010)

Hi Beatle, That is interesting about Stanley's initial purchases. I too bought a swag at around the 3 cents level when all was doom and gloom and many people thought the world would end. I won't bother chasing back though as it is all history now. Yes I overlooked mentioning about Cadel. In the end he had a disappointing tour I guess, but he seems to be far more relaxed than previously (except when the media is all over him asking questions on the day he lost the jersey!). He is one tough bike rider and will bounce back. He seems to improve through the season so I expect he will put in a good showing when the World Championships are on in Geelong in a couple of month's time. The course does not suit him much but I am sure he will still show out as he is incredibly proud of his World Champion's Jersey.I had problems getting cable TV at a number of places I stayed in Japan and when I did there was no commentary at all, very strange! You will recall I mentioned THX a few months back. Having seen what some positive news has done to its SP in the last few days (on the coat tails of the other big mover too) I look forward to something similar eventually happening to RED. The Baker Steel purchase and the move back up to maximum strategic weighting by Matthews Partners are both very significant pointers IMO. I have been wondering if the inflation/fiat currency/gold story having been around for a while now has become boring to some and there has been a lessening of interest by some in the sector.
Cheers AB 
PS. I discovered my Japanese is about on a par with my Tagalog. Not sure what to work on first!


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## Huitzii (5 August 2010)

Debt financing package under review

Deutsche Bank AG and Ashmore Investment Management Limited have provided term sheets to deliver a US$40 million package to fund the Siana gold mine development.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100805/pdf/31rqvzmqbp7yd8.pdf

DYOR


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## mardo (5 August 2010)

Hi Beatle,Anderbond.
What do you make of the latest debt financing package (under review) looks like they maybe shopping arround for somethibg else,or perhaps a different package from someone else say Macquarie .
Any ideas as it may stall the SP for a while.


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## beatle (5 August 2010)

Hi Mardo. 

To answer your question, of how I consider the debt finance package, I suggest there are some positives and negatives. The fact you ask the question is in itself reflective of the uncertainty surrounding it, which judged by the market is fairly negative.

Of course not knowing specific details it is hard to fully assess it, but in its most simplistic form as we understand it:
If the debt package offered is taken up as spelt out in the announcement, including debt plus warrants:
1. The development of Siana is assumed subject to development proceeding as planned,
2. There will be warrants over additional shares, thus an increase in share capital.

The questions then are:
1. What specifically is the detail regarding the warrants;
2. What are the specific conditions precedent for project milestones required under the roll out of debt facilities.
3. What are the specific details that relate to security.

Personally I suggest that the offer at least guarantees Siana development assuming the work proceeds as expected, but that the provision of warrants is a sting in the tail that is not usual with project debt and suggests to me that the bank is exceptionally unreasonable - maybe its an indication that RED has made a mistake in giving a mandate so soon to 1 bank syndicate rather than keep broader options open. I suggest that Deutsche Bank should be avoided like the plague by other project sponsors because they are are 
trying to "kill a pig" with this financing!

Furthermore, if the number of warrants are considerable, one would have to ask the question, is a bank ALLOWED to offer a debt package with a sizeable equity kicker in the tail, as to my way of thinking it is crossing the bounds of Chinese walls normally set up to isolate a debt financing structure from an equity financing structure! This conflict of interest of course becomes more relevant if the warrant package is considerable.


IF your well informed and RED does still have other options available to finance the project, then I hope that RED management pursues those options. The fact we don't know the quantum of warrants over shares makes my comment less emphatic, but if Deustsche are seeking considerable warrants at a discount to market price or on some structured basis even at a slight premium, I suggest that RED should fully re-consider those alternative financing options. I would far prefer RED take up a gold loan, or a fully equity funded financing if the warrants are considerable. In the case of the gold loan, then although RED management seem to be taking pains to make the market know they retain no hedging, with the gold price at current prices a gold loan is not a big deal for hedging, it is a low cost source of funding and the fact the gold price is locked in is neither here nor there, it just reduces opportunity flexibility and is not necessarily an opportunity lost if the gold price softens!

I do think its a shame that the financing remains outstanding after todays announcement, I can't see management making a decision to take it up so quickly, in fact I hope they don't take it up at all!


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## mardo (5 August 2010)

Thanks Beatle,
I agree with a lot of your comments  on the warrents as the shares have already been diluted by the slow timeframe and particularly if the Bank wants shares as well as the finance dollar.I've followed this company on and off since 2003 but have managed to pick their downturns fortunately.I now have the feeling its time to stick .I've been to several AGMs over that time and CJ  appears a very good operater as is evident by his recent increase price for IAU(Intredid) when he renegotiated an increase in the sale price for Paulsens  Gold Mine.I hope he has more options for Red as now is a great time to lock in some hedging and de-risk the bussiness.


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## beatle (5 August 2010)

Hi Mardo, and I agree with your sentiments, especially CJ in his role as Non-Executive Chairman, as he appears to have been instrumental on the financing side of things for RED from what I have observed. But I'm not impressed that Deutsche Bank has tried to take on the equity upside with what I assume remains basically a debt style of financing. 

Although there may well be a downside risk to RED price in the immediate short term there are certainly dangers in selling down at this late stage if either of the following happens:
1. Mapawa drilling results are put out on the shallower drillholes, with the possibility of it confirming mineralisation from close to surface. If that happens then Mapawa value, whilst still at the speccy exploration risk stage, should begin to increase and have a positive contribution to RED share price.
2. An alternative funding arrangement is negotiated with either Deutsche or another financial institution.

In either case, those that might take a risk in selling out in the short term with the intent to get back in later on, might risk getting caught with their pants down! With the upside promise to happen in the next months I don't think its worth the risk, and I'm like you in that I have held shares in RED (or Greenstone) for a looooong time! So waiting another month or three is no big deal having waiting more than a decade for the big re-rating!


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## anderbond (6 August 2010)

Hi Guys, Interesting that Warrants at a 35% premium are shown as part of the finance package in the latest North America Presentation but do NOT get a mention in the earlier South East Asia Gold Presentation. So the company presumably became aware that Warrants would form part of the package between the two presentations. Given that they had promised an announcement, and the package has been offered, they would have no choice but to announce the package to the market. They have qualified any acceptance so the door probably remains open for a superior proposal, especially given they are using outside experts to review what has been offered. A bit frustrating for all! I see that there is quite a lot of negative opinion expressed by posters on HC. Understandable in some ways I guess but I still have confidence that we will get there as per the plan. Confirmation of Mapawa is likely to be the catalyst for the SP in the next few months. AB


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## beatle (6 August 2010)

Hi Anderbond, thanks for your post, in fact I failed to notice the point about the warrants, issued at 35% premium to share price (assumes 18.9 cps based on 14 cents price quoted in presentation), in that presentation. At least there is a reasonable premium, but I really can't understand the reasoning for management considering this style of financing, as this crosses the boundary between a more acceptable project finance proposal usual for project development (as Siana is) compared to the mezzanine equity style of financing more often offered for risky explorer type activities rather than project development.

I agree we should ultimately see the development of Siana, but there is a possibility that this proposal could take RED management longer to agree to, particularly if there are some alternatives still being considered! Without having full knowledge of the details of the offer, I hope that RED management do consider some alternatives, even if it requires a delay of a few months as I can't see a good reason to offer the bank upside, security and with a continuing threat on loan drawdown being withheld for the duration of development and probably still having pre-completion constraints monitored by the bank. 

Your point regarding Mapawa remains the wildcard for RED, I would imagine that reporting of the first shallow holes is not far away now, and hopefully it will shed more positive light into the potential of the big'un lying dormant!


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## fastbuck1 (8 August 2010)

Hi  Beatle , have been pondering over the red finance offer and have come to the conclusion, the bank wants to make all the money with this offer {as usual} my thinking is the banks now have red over a ballel as the project construction has comenced and any bank knows that sooner or later they will need money , it will be the banks way... my thinking that red should have got this cat in the bag before the first sod had been turned, my thinking is red should go to the market with another 250 000 000 shares and borrow the rest the more traditional way without all the cons' and pro's , there are plenty of banks that would be happy to get just a 5% return {japanese banks} i hope red has something else up its sleve as the dodgy deal they have tabled could really hold the sp back......i also note another large crossing after 5pm @.135........regards fastbuck


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## beatle (8 August 2010)

Hi Fastbuck, and thanks for your thoughts. I agree with lots of what you say, and for us longer term holders its so bloody frustrating at the last hurdle. But I do have a few thoughts that ALL shareholders should consider, with the general consensus of the market suggesting that the RED share price will soften over the next days - be forewarned!

Siana is a very good gold project, it has more that 1 million ounces of gold available, at low cost of production, and based on the current reserves has  an NPV based on bankable feasibility study of AUS$300 million PLUS range based on 10% discount rate. In addition upside potential based on mineralisation intersections along strike and down plunge indicated from additional drilling. Those intersections have not been included in resource estimates and therefore are also not cash flow analysis estimates!

Development of Siana will proceed and that is the heart of the value of RED, DESPITE it currently trading at around 60 odd % discount to true value!

IF the bank is too greedy, and the debt route is too difficult, RED may consider an alternative equity funding!

Therefore, if RED pursues and announces some alternative funding route then I certainly would not want to be dropping shares at present! Those sellers will either lose out on the quick turn around or have to scramble to buy shares to get back in! That will only add more to the share price move up!


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## fastbuck1 (9 August 2010)

Beatle ,  my thoughts on  finance again, i don't think red will take it up, for one if they were you would think they would have done a trading halt before releasing it to the market  {surly they would have been breifed on it and already know they wo'nt be taking it up}   2nd the market realy didn't react at all, as there were no massive sell of and volume was what could now be regarded as normal.......i think its back to the drawing board for finance.....next few days could see some loose fruit fall to the ground which i will be more than happy to pick up....

    Disclaimer____________ "I have never sold any red shares"


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## beatle (9 August 2010)

Hi Fastbuck - your thoughts are interesting re whether they will take up the finance offer. 

Since it was announced I have been wondering if they had known for a long time or not, the fact that they had known about the warrants prior to the N American trip a week and a half earlier makes me wonder exactly how much they knew at that stage. And of course we don't know the exact details of the offer from the bank to make a fully informed opinion. But I agree with you that they are unlikely to accept it so quickly - obviously there will be a time limit on the offer so I am sure they will want to leave it till the last minute, and I'm of the view that they will seek alternatives until the last possible time to make the decision on the offer. And of course i hope they get another alternative that possibly involves a gold loan (pre-delivery of gold or whatever they want to call it!) and I also don't care if they have to commit to some more hedging additional to take of the gold loan, as the current gold price makes a hedging lock in significant profits anyway.

I do certainly believe that anyone dropping shares now runs the risk of losing them for good if RED pulls a deal out of hat which pushes the price up - now that we have had some bad news and the market has absorbed it without putting too much pressure on the share price, I can't see them dropping much more but i can see them rising quickly if they surprise the market with a positive deal being announced!


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## auscan (9 August 2010)

Talked to the CFO at RED 5 office (joe ?) here in Perth last week when their announcement came out.

He certainly wasn't doing cartwheels over the bank's offer and inferred the final offer received was not the same as they believed it to be at their last meetings with the bank. 

I asked re the quantity of warrants and he said that was still a point of discussion. The board will review and decide and will do this soon in his opinion, but he certainly made no effort to "sell" the bank's package as a great alternative. 

He did keep stressing they have enough money in the bank to continue with development, so their progress and timetables will not be delayed should they choose to pursue another financial option, and they are not under time pressure to get finance in the immediate future.


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## beatle (10 August 2010)

Very informative Auscan - did Joe indicate whether RED were pursuing any other alternatives? (IF so, did he give any details about an alternative, and a timeframe?).


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## auscan (11 August 2010)

Never got into talking about alternative finance packages, just general talk about pro & cons of various types of financing. 

Main points made were:
Joe believed a decision on the Bank offer would be made soon and that they are in a strong financial position so no matter what the decision, ongoing operations wouldn't be affected


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## anderbond (11 August 2010)

Hi Beatle and others, Interesting slide in the SP of RED last few days. Further top up opportunity IMO! I see that some contributors on HC are getting a little worked up, blaming management for all sorts of things. Some have sold out or are saying they have/will. Need patience in a difficult and tricky market I feel. My perspective for what it is worth covers a few areas:
1. The finance announcement did not provide any positive vibes because of the somewhat reticent feel in comments made. Moreover the finance package had been part of a number of presentations made so there was no real sense of progress. In fact the wording in the announcement bordered on negative so there was little chance to see any kind of kickup to the SP.
2. If a check is made of some of the other gold stocks both large and small, it is fairly clear that the gold sector has started to" paddle". Examples are NCM, CGX and in particular MML. LGL is holding due to the takeover offer. In an earlier post I speculated that the sector may have lost the interest of the market (temporarily or otherwise). In a subdued climate, it is unlikely that an emerging producer will maintain strong interest when the first gold pour is still a little time away and there is still a lot to be done. Thus IMO we are unlikely to see much happen with the SP unless there is further positive news on the Mapawa front. If that happens then we may see the SP kick up, the extent would depend on the news.
3. I remain confident about the eventual level of the SP reflecting the underlying value. Drivers are likely to be getting into production, a resumption of market interest in the gold sector, positive news on drill results for Mapawa, or the possibility of a takeover. On this aspect, I feel that a takeover would only be a possibility if Mapawa started to look like it was a truly huge resource.
So the present SP weakness will undoubtedly shake out some short termers. I do not believe though that volumes represent institutional selling of any magnitude, more likely there are institutions "playing" the SP in an effort to pick up more stock at bargain prices.
Cheers. AB


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## anderbond (11 August 2010)

A P.S. to my post a few moments ago. I overlooked mentioning that the sale by Ross Stanley might now start to look quite "smart" in the current climate. That is not to say that Baker Steel have made a mistake, simply that Stanley might have seen the opportunity to sell the entire stake at 16c which would have been difficult to achieve on market. As I have previously said, Baker Steel have a strong reputation as gold fund managers so they must have been happy to cough up the money to take up a significant stake. AB


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## beatle (11 August 2010)

Hi Anderbond, I concur with most of your points, but wonder whether the selling has been over-done compared to the rest of the market for smaller gold stocks. If that is the case any move upward by the general gold sector could see RED move up a bit more relative to others.

I do still believe, however, that once the final funding package is bedded down, and hopefully its an alternative to what has been indicated for the Deutsche offer (notwithstanding us not being given details re the warrants), then RED share price should move back up as the insto's support it more. After all, once funding is confirmed then its only a matter of time for Siana to get into production, and so far we have been advised that first gold should be produced in April 2011 (now only 8 and a bit months away!).

In addition, if Mapawa shallow drilling does confirm mineralisation closer to surface, then I believe, whether the market wants to accept it or not, RED price will be worth considerably more than the Siana DCF analysis (which currently based on gold price is worth 35 odd cents to RED).

Any further weakness in RED share price, subject to gold remaining above US$1,100, means its a real bargain if Siana development goes ahead as expected.


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## beatle (13 August 2010)

Based on very patchy information I believe that senior RED management are currently in discussions with other groups that maybe able to provide a better alternative to the DB offer. If that is the case, then the current price is a bargain once an alternative deal is announced (I emphasise IF an alternative deal is announced). 
I still stick by my view that once the funding is bedded down, and it maybe of debt, equity or a mix of both, then RED will commence its push upwards, unlikely to ever test current share price lows!


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## Miner (14 August 2010)

beatle said:


> Based on very patchy information I believe that senior RED management are currently in discussions with other groups that maybe able to provide a better alternative to the DB offer. If that is the case, then the current price is a bargain once an alternative deal is announced (I emphasise IF an alternative deal is announced).
> I still stick by my view that once the funding is bedded down, and it maybe of debt, equity or a mix of both, then RED will commence its push upwards, unlikely to ever test current share price lows!




Dear Beatle 

Thanks for your excellent contribution to this thread.
Could yu please be more specific if your patchy information was from own research, hearsay or assumption reading through published / paid newsletter or just a wishful thought.

Not critical about what you said but need to appreciate we all have to support our information so as to provide as facts as possible

I was reading here RED is an excellent stock but then why it is drooping down even a large volume is there ?

Cheers


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## beatle (15 August 2010)

Hi Miner, and thanks for your kind words.

Regarding my "patchy information", it is SLIGHTLY more than hope (Lol), its what you may call putting a few different facts together ("patchwork") to then come up with something that is I would say has a reasonable chance of being factual.

From one source I was made aware that the Chairman of RED traveled to London last week on unknown business (also recognising that he is involved with a number of different companies, not just RED). I found out at week's end that the MD of RED was also in London at that same time. Thus it is more than likely they were together in London on business.

The Deutsche Bank proposal has been offered by the Sydney based branch, and therefore communications for RED with DB are likely to be with Sydney, not to any other overseas branch.

Since the funding of RED to complete delivery of Siana development is clearly the most important consideration for the company in the immediate future ("The Board strategy is to focus on the development of Siana", based on its 5th August 2010 announcement), I suggest that RED management has gone to to London to pursue alternatives to the DB offer. Why else would they have traveled so far (so soon after having been to N America on a roadshow presentation).

Its also interesting to note but possibly a coincidence that Baker Steel, recent acquirers of 6.57% of RED, has its main office in London.

With regard to RED share price falling, well I would say and most posters I am sure would agree, that the price fall was immediately after the announcement of the Deutsche Bank offer, which was not as attractive as most would have expected, and that RED had indicated "The Company, together with external advisors, is reviewing the detail; in particular, condition precedent project milestones which dictate the timing of the loan draw downs and the extent of security property." RED didn't state categorically that it would accept the offer, and thus the market was of the opinion that it was not necessarily the best offer for the company. I believe it has opened the door to other offers being considered, thus this London trip maybe something along those lines.

IF Baker Steel are a party to those negotiations then it would be interesting to know who has sold a few odd shares in the past week at strategic times, to ensure RED remained under water! (Substantial shareholders do not have to disclose a change in shareholdings to the market until it reaches a 1% differential to the shareholdings previously disclosed, but of course RED management would know that after 3 days so its unlikely that its happening). Thus I am not suggesting that Baker Steel are sellers at present, just presenting the interesting situation that could occur.

In my view, once RED does bed down the outstanding finance, and also noting that RED has treasury funds sufficient for a few more months to maintain development momentum at Siana to ensure an April 2011 gold pour, it is likely that RED share price will recover all that it lost in the past week plus some more knowing that Siana will be constructed as planned.

The only outstanding uncertainty, if an alternative funding offer is accepted, will be the terms and conditions, and what mix of debt plus equity. Clearly any additionaly equity contribution will have an immediate impact on valuation per share and earnings per share, but since RED is already trading at a considerable discount to DCF valuation, there is no doubt RED will remain at bargain basement prices. In fact I have run a series of DCF valuations based on full equity being the source of funding and know that RED remains very attractively priced at present - I have also bought more shares at the current share price due to my own confidence of how things will progress for RED.


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## Miner (15 August 2010)

Good stuff Beatle

Very thoughtful narrative information making it 2+2 = 5 and just not 4.

Thanks for taking time to go through the basis of your assumptions and how you related those assumptions into more factual findings.

Let us hope RED fulfils what you projected and what I read from your posting that I am thinking the options in favour of rejecting DB offer would be get another suitor or  raise equity to increase cash in hand.

One of our great participants from ASX is right there at RED site. 

He / She due to his / her involvement in RED has not articipated in RED thread to keep him / her out of controversy.

I am sure  our ASF friend  is watching from side lines to make sure our discussions are not off the mark. 

(_BTW I also thought that CIA needs your services too _)


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## beatle (15 August 2010)

Thanks once again Miner, and I'm happy to maintain posting on RED whilst i have any new information to provide, but of course its been the same old story for a long while now, and most of the older shareholders that post clearly are as frustrated (but accustomed to the hard yards!) as I am and have been for a while especially as this last funding hurdle for Siana has been a long drawn out affair. 

But its important to note that this hurdle is like many others that have been confronted and overcome by RED over the past 18 months through dogged efforts of management. Things have definitely changed for the better over that period, with RED technically related to its Philippines assets, along with the corporate/financial side:

1. Siana has been the subject of an intense feasibility study that has confirmed economic and technical viability at US$800/oz (and probably lower);

2. Siana resources are actually greater than the current resources/reserves estimated as the last holes having some very significant mineralised intersections (wide intercepts of high grades, eg Hole SMDD134 -
5 metres at 25.4 g/t gold and Hole SMDD135 - 3 metres at
31.6 g/t gold were too late to be included in the estimation and indicated a likely extension to the north);

3. Mapawa LSY prospect has confirmed the existence of long intercepts of + 1 g/t Au, within a porphyry host that will likely extend close to surface - the first couple of shallower holes are due to be announced soon;

4. A considerable increase in shareholdings by insto's and fund managers of high repute within the resource investment community;

5. A strong cash position in RED to maintain both the development works at Siana plus Mapawa exploration for the coming months.

RED's financial position is very important with the ongoing evaluation of Mapawa, to allow RED to carry on alone, so that it doesn't have to rely on farming out of that asset at a stage when considerable value adding has/will(?) progress(ed).

I know that the market has not fully appreciated the value of Siana based on the current gold price. Nor do I believe that the market recognises the potential of Mapawa at this stage, and the fact that there are other porphyry style hosts similar to the LSY host (which is similar to the Boyongan project owned by Philex) situated within both the Siana and Mapawa MPSA's, (eg Madja amongst others - interestingly even below Siana there is a similar dioritic host but not sure whether there is any associated mineralisation as this has not been fully investigated).

With respect to your comments about the CIA and the conclusion of 2 + 2 = 5its an extraordinarily good analogy to the value of RED (but IN REVERSE!), ie 
Siana = 35 cps
Mapawa = 10cps (? Only at this stage)
Thus Siana + Mapawa = 12.5 cents (current market valued price!). Absolutely crazy maths!!! Lol


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## beatle (17 August 2010)

In reference to some other posters regarding RED:

I did not see what Smity wrote before it was moderated, but have read a following post from Fatsoh. I am most grateful to Fatsoh for his posts as he obviously has followed the company for at least some of those more recent years as well -Fatsoh, in fact you are quite right that over the years I have been very frustrated for long periods of time with RED management, and I was never afraid to make my frustrations public, both in chat forums PLUS directly towards management. Management at RED has slowly evolved to its current group of directors, but the MD has now been in place since 2001. 

More recent holders of RED will not realise the longer term frustrations endured by the company (and therefore its shareholders) in procuring the bankable feasibility study and the environmental clearances at Siana which have taken a long time to be finalised. And on many occasions RED set out a timeframe to the market to achieve particular milestones but always seemed to under-deliver. Some of those instances were the first resource estimate for Siana, and the MPSA grant of Mapawa which took years to be issued, and the funding anticipated with the Soc Generale offer of finance that followed from the first big placement of $35 million in 2007.

Most of those frustrations are now behind RED, and the past 18 months has seen considerable progress to the point now that you know the plant and mine will be developed - the backstop of the Deutsche Bank/Ashmore offer ensures Siana WILL finally deliver gold, BUT I'm still holding out that RED can pull a rabbit out of the hat and substitute that offer with something more commercially appealing.

Of course I'm emotionally attached to RED, I have held a considerable number of shares in the company for many years, and have lived and breathed each action of the company over that time - in fact when I first held shares in the then Greenstone Resources it didn't even have the Siana gold project in its portfolio, it was sitting at 2.5 cents with a few exploration assets in WA. Nothing more! Its market capitalisation was around $1.8 million! 

And just to confirm, I am connected to RED AS A SHAREHOLDER ONLY, and in that capacity I know all the older management team (I also know both Barry Bolitho and Kevin Dundo from other companies as well), but I have never been an employee or consultant or part of management at RED.

As for emotional attachment to RED, that does not mean that I don't keep a close eye on the financial and other issues of any company that I invest in. In the case of RED its fundamentals have been overlooked by many probably as a result of the lack of performance (not just share price performance but also in company activity) in the past along with the Philippines factor, but the last 18 months has turned that non-performance around and MML lies testimony to how the Philippines factor can be overcome with success on the ground. Now with anything like a 9 month lead time to first gold pour, the fundamentals for Siana are as impressive as you will see with any new gold mining venture, and with a completely different set of new substantial shareholders on board, the price is set to soar once the market sees the writing on the wall.

Any current shareholders still with doubts and considering to dump shares be forewarned, you may well rue that action. Lets just see who is right over the coming months!


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## anderbond (18 August 2010)

Hi Beatle, thanks for your comments. It is good to hear more about past frustrations with RED/Greenstone. It is a little disturbing to hear some of the recent comments that a few posters are prepared to make. One has to wonder why some work themselves into some sort of "rage" over the subdued performance of the SP and indulge in unfortunate language. These posters are clearly not cut out to be long term investors in anything. Maybe they are opportunistic day traders that thought they could turn a quick profit and have been caught out. Who knows and to be totally honest, who cares?
Keep up the good work Beatle, you have been of great benefit to most of us. AB


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## beatle (18 August 2010)

Thanks Anderbond, and I agree with your sentiments completely. 

One thing to note with the "knocker type posters" is that the first reaction of many readers to those posts is to say to those people - "well if you have so many complaints and criticisms, why don't you get out of the situation by selling your shares!". 

But actually before things started moving in the right direction I WAS also one of those knocker posters in RED, and wanting to vent my frustrations as I believed RED had to either change its board and management or its strategy. The reason I held in there at that time was because I believed that RED was a bargain and didn't want to lose that chance of its share price moving up at some point. With these newer "knocker posters " maybe its the same for them, although they are frustrated, maybe why they don't sell is BECAUSE they actually also agree with us that RED is still a BARGAIN at current prices!

And unlike in times gone past, the time of moving into gold production is getting closer, the line in the sand is already drawn, and RED will go up within the next 9 months (and I still don't have a problem predicting it will move up sooner within that 9 months period than at the end of 9 months!). So NO bsredoje, I do not mean years, I am talking about my own expectations which are MONTHS not years!


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## wtang89 (18 August 2010)

Hi all,

First of all, much thanks to beatle for his frequent posts and his insight, i think that i speak for everyone here that it is much appreciated. Whilst reviewing RED at the end of trading today, i noticed that at the 13c mark, there's almost 30m shares for sale. It seems to me that a relatively big player seems to want out of this gem and soon. Would be interesting to see who this player is, as the order cannot have been submitted more than a few hours ago. 

Cheers all


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## beatle (19 August 2010)

Thanks Wtang89, I appreciate your comments.

The sell order you refer to of just under 30 million shares at 13 cents in the market is an interesting development, and I have no explanation at all. Clearly the shares have to be owned by someone so it can't be a dummy shareholding, and just to see it there is very unnerving. To be honest in all my years of trading with a stock of this trading volume liquidity I have not seen such an offer ever. 

That leads me (I guess somewhat hopefully!) to think that its someone with a big holding just trying to unsettle the market (and smaller shareholders such as us retails traders), and its done the job - I don't like it at all! 

My logic is that from a wider perspective, ie with respect to the Siana development, that there is no obvious reason why such a major shareholding would be so quickly put on the market (albeit at a slightly higher share price to current) IF Siana development was proceeding in accordance with the latest presentation information only 3 weeks ago (27th July) and the announcement of debt finance only 2 weeks ago (August 5)! In fact there would have to be a Trading Halt if it was known that things were not proceeding as has been recently reported, that Siana is developing in line with timeframes consistent with recent news. One thing I know about RED 5 management, is that they are very conservative, and therefore would have no hesitation in seeking a Trading Halt if the project was going off the rails!

But its so surprising (and disappointing) to see such a large share offer being made open on market. If its an insto trying to bully us smaller shareholders then I really don't like it nor appreciate that style of trading tactic whatsoever, but being locked in now there is not much that can be done. I have sufficient confidence in RED management's conservatism to believe there is nothing untoward with respect to Siana. However, it is possible that Mapawa has not come up in those first couple of shallower holes, but having noted that, NO party outside of management should be aware of the drillhole results from that drilling yet, and if they do then its so easy to have ASX check about insider trading.

Having gone through all the possibilities my logic suggests that there is no inside information to form this decision and it must be tree shaking - but its a bloody good attempt at shaking the tree, and I personally don't like it!


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## anderbond (19 August 2010)

Hi Beatle and others. I have been doing a little digging around with some of my contacts in relation to this large parcel of stock for sale. The "educated" guess is that it is in fact an institution, probably Sydney based (not Matthews)that has listed the parcel. There is full agreement that the method of attempting to sell the parcel is extremely unusual to say the least. But there is no knowledge as to why the parcel has been put up for sale.The further word is that the company has no real issues with the funding package offered by DB, but does recognise that the terms of the finance package has unsettled the market a little. Other options being considered for financing include a gold prepay arrangement or a $40 million CR in the US. But no more announcements on finance are likely until end September or later. There is plenty of cash in the bank and work onsite is proceeding (Siana). AB


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## wtang89 (19 August 2010)

Hi Beatle,

You are definitely right in saying that it is indeed unnerving, but given the trading volume lately, a sell order of that size seems so out of place. I mean even if its a large institution trying to unload close to 30m shares, in their position submitting a sell order of that size seems to be anything but productive. If they were desperate to sell, i would expect them to break up the order? In that line of thought, it would be logical to assume that the order is used as an attempt to cap the share price at that 13c mark. Which begs the question why?. IT does seem to be working, as trading volumes have been very low in recent days. I guess for now, we can only wait and see.


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## beatle (19 August 2010)

Further to the post regarding my thoughts on the current big seller(s) sitting at 12.5 cents and 13.0 cents on RED.

I am feeling more comfortable after a few hours trading in RED this morning - there has been no ASX announcement or Trading Halt, which could otherwise represent some significant departure to development of the Siana gold project as we currently know it. IF there was something seriously amiss at the project that has caused a couple of big sell orders, by 1 or 2 holders to decide to leave the register then by now the company would have the responsibility of informing the market, thus my thoughts are that its nothing related to RED activities on the ground at all. 

Although Siana DCF fundamental valuation has not underpinned current share price, it gives me personal confidence that once we get closer to gold production RED WILL trade considerably higher than 12 odd cents (subject always to gold price!). But with gold sitting at around US$1,225/oz Siana represents a value of around mid-30 cents per share to RED -Based on the current number of shares, of course it will change somewhat if the equity is increased via placement funds to finalise the funding for Siana if done via new equity. But actually (and of course it also depends upon the pricing of any new issue, thus the number of new shares being issued) it is possible that the valuation per share will drop if new equity is presumed cf a debt funding, but certainly to a level way above 12 cents! 

IT MAY BE that the current sellers of those 29.4 million shares are in fact a group of investors that have offered an alternative funding mechanism via equity to the DB offer of finance. Thus they are trying to cap the pricing of any new funding proposal.

Whatever, there is no doubt in my mind after a few hours trading, that RED is not in any predicament on the ground, its clearly a finance or share trading activity, and for longer shareholders its worth the wait - and if you want to pick up a few shares off the major cappers then go for it and make them pay through loss of some shares, lol! (I wish i had a few more coins in the pocket to test my theory!).

I still consider we are seeing the lowest price in RED that we are due to see before it moves to much higher levels some time soon! But we shall see the result soon enough. (And anyone wanting to kick a bit more sand in my face while the share price is down go for it, lol, whats the expression? - "sticks and stones will break my bones but names will never harm me" Lol). By the way, I also would like to thank Dratoz for your kind words, I am so peed off that I have not been allowed to post elsewhere just to keep in touch with all the longer term posters in RED, but I still hope to meet up with you all if you will be at the mine opening next year - I will be there, invited or not! And the other knocker type posters are not worth wasting time on except to refute the rubbish they are trying to disseminate to the more meaningful shareholders!

(PS. I was booted out of that other posting website totally unrelated to RED and in fact due to moderators having the heavies put on them by parties associated with other companies that I was posting on at the time. I was not posting using multiple nicknames, thats the excuse to remove me being a headache to prevent my posting on those other threads. So there!!!).


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## Hurricane (19 August 2010)

This may be a silly question but is this strategy a common one for big players? (i.e placing a large sell order, effectively capping the SP)

I'd appreciate it if someone could advise the possible reasons and outcomes for this kind of activity......


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## fastbuck1 (19 August 2010)

my veiw on the 29mil shares is it could be a deceased estate and whom ever wants them sold has'nt got a clue how to go about......there's no way a insto would try to sell like what were seeing, an insto would either line up some buyers of screen  and we would see a after hours crossing or slowly dribble them out over time .......my veiw only


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## mgm1a (19 August 2010)

fastbuck, i agree that is plausible.

the amount seems highly unusual but it may be quite measured - remember volumes are getting light /tight - there are days when volumes struggle - people not wanting to let go of any - lets face it there are lots of us convinced on the value of RED. 
Despite the av. vol. being 4 mill last few months we have had days of double that.
So the capper needs to shock even more than usual - its risky - but they have the volume of 3-4m at 12.5c to buffer any big move that might be unexpected.

It just seems too outrageous to be a capper AND to be other than a capper - if it was  an executor selling up an estate you'd think they'd ring up Mathews or Merrill to do a deal or at the very least call the co. to ask if they knew if any holder was wanting more?

Sigh!


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## Mister Mark (19 August 2010)

fastbuck1 said:


> my veiw on the 29mil shares is it could be a deceased estate and whom ever wants them sold has'nt got a clue how to go about......there's no way a insto would try to sell like what were seeing, an insto would either line up some buyers of screen  and we would see a after hours crossing or slowly dribble them out over time .......my veiw only




In my limited knowledge that in a stock not heavlly traded to put up 30 mil  and think it would get swollowed up is unusual to say the least, surelly not an insto and a deceased estate would i think get advice and i would think dribble it, will be interesting to see where it goes, i do hold so our way i hope.


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## beatle (20 August 2010)

Anderbond, I have thought more about your suggestions re the Sydney based insto putting the big cap on etc, and also Mgm1a's view that the smaller 3 million parcel is acting as a buffer to that cap, and it seems like the explanations are very likely to be on the mark. 
I do want to ask you AB one thing though, with your comment that no word will come out re the financing until end of Sept or later - is this related to the quarterly, or you think that there is another reason why RED won't act sooner - i do agree that its more than likely that RED has sufficient funds internally to maintain the momentum of development works at Siana and also Mapawa.
I'm feeling more comfortable about the trading today despite it being at a lower price than yesterday!


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## Hurricane (20 August 2010)

But WHY!!!!!?????? What reason would a holder of the stock have to effectively cap the share price unless they were genuinly wanting to sell?


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## beatle (20 August 2010)

Hurricane, IF we are on the right track that someone is capping the stock price, then ITS POSSIBLE (I'm not saying they are doing it though!), that the capper is related to a party that is seeking to do a deal on an alternative equity based deal, thus they are trying to cap the pricing of that alternative deal! Not real ethical but its possible. In that regard RED clearly would not know who the capper is (but would of course know who the alternative deal is with!) until someone started to buy into the shares at 13 cents (and maybe the 3 million at 12.5 cents would be the same party) and the way the pricing is going its not going to be eaten into at all.


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## Hurricane (20 August 2010)

Only time will tell I suppose : ) And to think I was a hair trigger from bailing on these guys last month!! (before BOA loaded up) Now I'm sitting here with double what I started with............. would have liked to have got in at 11c though.


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## anderbond (20 August 2010)

Hi Beatle, as I understand things, there is some sort of "exclusivity" with DB that if RED does anything different within a nominated period, there is some sort of penalty. The penalty is not small beer apparently. I hope I have this correct as it comes via a third party. If I have the right understanding, the "exclusivity" expires towards or at end September. By the way, I now have CJ's number, so might call him next week to check this out a bit more plus anything else that seems odd. The info comes from him via the third party so I just hope that something has not been mixed up in the passing on. The matter of the lump of shares plus other financing options was also part of this. I remain tranquil despite the oddness of one or two things happening at the moment. I fully agree with you that if there was some kind of problem that might derail things, it would be disclosed. AB


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## beatle (23 August 2010)

Thanks for the clarification Anderbond. If there is an Exclusivity with Deutsche until late Sept I guess RED will continue to use internal funds to bankroll the Siana development until either a sweetened DB deal or a completely new deal can be done thereafter. At least RED does have alternatives with the cash and time up its sleeve and we have a timeline drawn in the sand! 

I would be interested to see if the 3 million buffer was taken out what would happen to the 29.4 million cap at 13 cents! 

Now its only a matter of a short time before RED gets its re-valuation in my opinion.


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## Bigukraine (25 August 2010)

Hurricane said:


> Only time will tell I suppose : ) And to think I was a hair trigger from bailing on these guys last month!! (before BOA loaded up) Now I'm sitting here with double what I started with............. would have liked to have got in at 11c though.






beatle said:


> Thanks for the clarification Anderbond. If there is an Exclusivity with Deutsche until late Sept I guess RED will continue to use internal funds to bankroll the Siana development until either a sweetened DB deal or a completely new deal can be done thereafter. At least RED does have alternatives with the cash and time up its sleeve and we have a timeline drawn in the sand!
> 
> I would be interested to see if the 3 million buffer was taken out what would happen to the 29.4 million cap at 13 cents!
> 
> Now its only a matter of a short time before RED gets its re-valuation in my opinion.




Re-valuation ??? would like to get in at .11c ???? i know its a down day on the markets but i ( with all the info supplied by beatle and anderbond) have only seen this stock heading in one direction.........
Best of luck to all holders but all the positive info on this co and there assets has made shareholders see only one thing.......RED


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## beatle (25 August 2010)

Bigukraine, I agree its been a sad couple of weeks for RED shareholders, with its price going against the grain of its underlying valuation for Siana. Interestingly this is against a backdrop of an increase in gold price. But I'm of the view that EVERY dog (you can call RED a dog if you wish at the moment!) has its day, and its medium term outlook, subject to a gold price remaining above US$1,000/oz is most exciting. In fact its outlook for the next few months is surely one of the best kept bargains in my view, as ultimately there WILL be a re-valuation in line with the DCF valuation.

You don't need to buy shares in it, but it might just be the one that got away from you if you don't! I for one remain completely a believer as it will become a gold producer within a year, and with a whole of life (10 years plus) P/E of less than 4 - that just can't continue once closer to production, and if you doubt that then you may as well keep your money in blue chips such as Telstra (Lol!).


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## Bigukraine (25 August 2010)

beatle said:


> Bigukraine, I agree its been a sad couple of weeks for RED shareholders, with its price going against the grain of its underlying valuation for Siana. Interestingly this is against a backdrop of an increase in gold price. But I'm of the view that EVERY dog (you can call RED a dog if you wish at the moment!) has its day, and its medium term outlook, subject to a gold price remaining above US$1,000/oz is most exciting. In fact its outlook for the next few months is surely one of the best kept bargains in my view, as ultimately there WILL be a re-valuation in line with the DCF valuation.
> 
> You don't need to buy shares in it, but it might just be the one that got away from you if you don't! I for one remain completely a believer as it will become a gold producer within a year, and with a whole of life (10 years plus) P/E of less than 4 - that just can't continue once closer to production, and if you doubt that then you may as well keep your money in blue chips such as Telstra (Lol!).




at least with telstra you would of got quite a few div chq's over the last 5 years...... instead of your investment being the same as you started (if you bought red) 5 years ago....


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## mardo (25 August 2010)

RED has basically operated between 12c & 15c since March this year and with one major breakout.It will probably stay within theses peramiters untill some major shift in thinking or progress on the mine to a more fully progressed state.
When this happens we will all know, but lets assume they complete their financing and construction is near completion by April 2011- sometime between now and then there should be a major rerating of this company.
So lets hope the gold price stays up till then.
Cheers to all holders.


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## beatle (26 August 2010)

Today, 26 August 2010 trading in RED is approaching an exciting test:

There is a buffer of 3 million shares on offer at 12.5 cents which might be to safeguard a cap of 29.4 million shares sitting at 13 cents. This morning computer trading appears ready to test the buffer shares. One of the big issues for the capper* possibly losing shares in RED, clearly this is not the aim of the capper at all! IF RED trades at 13 cents in coming days this will be a real test for that capper. 

Why is the BOT trading occurring today, I wonder if the insto's know that RED is about ready to complete its finance arrangement! 

Exciting times maybe?

(*My view only re the capper of course)


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## beatle (26 August 2010)

Today's trading in RED has played out very well I believe, with the BOT continuing to nibble away and with a couple of bigger bites along the way most of the 12.5 cents is gone, and increasing interest of buyers at 12 cents. I have no doubt that there is a very serious game of cat and mouse being played out, and possibly on a different basis than we have seen in past months between insto's playing their games to take out smaller investors.

The 13 cents cap of 29.4 million remains in place, and its doing a good job of funnelling weaker hands into the market selling at 12.5 cents, and importantly this cap always remains in place at the end of each trading day, just to show its hand to any would-be sellers and other traders. I believe its a psychological game to force weaker hands to sell out while there seems to be no further news in place for the finance. 

Only time will tell, but its possible that this trading has been orchestrated by a trader soaking up stock on behalf of a bigger gold company before a possible hostile bid for RED. Only time will tell, but time is now on our (shareholders) side, with the finance offer already tabled presumably putting pressure on the mystery buyer to get as much stock before a sweetened finance offer by DB or another competing offer is provided to RED. If an interested gold company is behind it then the game will move up a gear soon -I would imagine as once any finance offer is accepted by RED the share price will likely move higher threatening the 29.4 million cap at which time the cap will be withdrawn, causing the price to move up at a fastened pace.


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## beatle (26 August 2010)

The other thing that of course affects RED's value is the gold price, and while the RED share price has not reflected gold price all along, at some point RED share price is likely to rise to a position at a premium to the fundamental value indicated by DCF analysis. 

Of course with the likelihood that the funding package now likely to be a mix of debt plus warrants (ie equity) the old cash flow model used as a tool for valuing of RED is not as definitive to that underlying cash flow model, but it remains as an upside guide to RED share price value based solely on Siana.

On that old cash flow model, assuming:
US gold price of US$1,240/oz
US silver price of US$19.00/oz
Aud/US$ = 0.885
988 million shares (including escrowed shares issued)
97.6% Siana interest

RED value attributed to Siana alone = 38.1 cents
(this EXCLUDES any cash in RED treasury)


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## Hurricane (27 August 2010)

Well the buffers gone.......................................now what? 

Looks like the person with 30 odd million shares at .13 is going to be losing them


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## beatle (27 August 2010)

Hi Hurricane, well you have posed the big question now. In this game of cat and mouse I'm sure everyone is edgy about the next move, and with regard to the trading I'm excited. BUT with regard to the fundamentals of RED value and status of Siana I'm very confident that things remain on track with value way beyond 13 cents even if there is a capital raising to assist with the final funding, therefore I'd be nervous if I was shoving 29.4 million shares of a company worth lots more, for sale!

The 'seller' may well keep them out there for a day or whatever, but as you say Hurricane, one thing I'm sure about is if they keep dangling them they are gonna lose them! THEN the share price will rocket IMO, and if they pull them it will also force the price up! So they now have a big decision to make, do they want to keep pushing them out there and for how long do they do that to achieve what they want, whatever that is.

Maybe they will put another couple of million in the front row at say 12.5 cents just before close today to keep things intact.

One thing for sure, I AIN'T SELLING, and I'm confident time is on OUR SIDE this time!

BTW - the few shares sold at 13 cents were crossed, so does that have some relevance, it could do. Also, how do we know that all the shares traded this morning, 5.5 million of them, didn't go to an ally, even if they weren't crossed!


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## fatsoh (27 August 2010)

all boils down to churning, imo - the 10 mill placed on the buy side yesterday has been split into 2 x 5 mill, with no advancement in sp - funny how the 29.4 mill 'seller' isn't being touched

props and cappers


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## beatle (27 August 2010)

Yeah, good point Fatsoh. In fact it would be interesting to find out how many shares actually change hand with this game of the big players possibly influencing traders to stay out of the market and restricting any real movement in share price! 

Perhaps the whole aim is to nullify share price movement so that no competing financing deal can be achieved at much better pricing on the equity side of things to what has been offered to date by DB. And when you think of it in those terms, losing 1 cent on say 5 or 10 million shares, is small bickies compared to some exorbitant equity tranche included in the funding arrangement!


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## fatsoh (27 August 2010)

hi beatle

nothing in the news pipeline means people get stale and tired of waiting - that's what the big boys are sweating on as they would be better informed than us on timeframes

a friendly word of caution if i may - suggesting that the sp will rocket soon may be a tad over exuberant - you may be deemed a ramper, when in fact you have a very good handle on the fundamentals - 

consensus suggests maybe real increases in sp closer to gold pour, but as we know, who really knows


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## beatle (27 August 2010)

I take your point Fatsoh (and yes I'm over-exuberant on RED).

In regard to the timeframes, well I believe we all know the project timeframes very well, unless there is a change in plans at which time RED will be forced to provide a status update to the market since its a critical market sensitive subject. So i don't believe anyone saying that the big boys are better informed on that than us shareholders (perhaps a few days in advance maybe to the insiders in the company but nothing significant in respect to first gold pour).

With regard to the finance, IF Anderbond is correct, we may have slightly over another month to go before an alternative competing offer is made and accepted by RED, ie beginning of October, but in the mean while RED remains on track for development works.

What i am wondering about is Mapawa, as it has been quite a while for news to come through on the first couple of shallower holes, and that is something that might have relevance to some of the sellers who maybe bought purely on the upside of Mapawa than the core Siana gold production.


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## beatle (28 August 2010)

One thing that can’t be denied about current trading in RED is the intense activity by larger traders. It appears that these larger players are trying to either channel or restrict the RED share price into a fairly narrow trading band, around 12.5 cents. The “cap” of 29.4 million shares has not be affected even though it appeared to be threatened late Friday afternoon, and its as though there is an “understanding” by these larger players not to upset the cap and the market. This MAY be a result of these larger groups realising that its important to “bed down” the finance for Siana in the coming days/weeks/month (?) to maintain the schedule to first gold pour in April 2011.
Clearly the “prize” for the development of Siana is the unlocking of a project that contains a minimum 849,000 ounces of gold plus 1.4 million ounces of silver. Total revenue for the base case model assuming current gold price of US$1,238 and silver price of US$19.00 amounts to US$1.08 billion!

I have already posted many DCF valuations for RED based on its holding in Siana, which by the way, currently amounts to 97.6% (with the remainder held in a “superannuated company” for RED Filipino employees accounts). But this DCF valuation assumes an all debt final tranche of US$40 million, which appears not likely to occur now due to the spanner in the works that Deutsche Bank has offered, with a separate warrants issue sought (apparently with an exercise price of 35% above 14 cents, ie ~ 19 cents). But without exact terms of that warrant issue being provided its not possible to evaluate its impact on share price valuation precisely).

I have prepared a number of differing scenarios, of debt plus equity, for the final US$40 million now sought to finalise project funding requirements, and have decided to table some of those results to give readers a more informed understanding of fundamental impact on share price value. For this exercise I refer to a 10% discount rate for Net Present Value, and have used current values of metal prices, AUD/USD exchange, and estimates of debt plus equity costs. This gives a good indication of underlying value on RED share valuation, purely for Siana development.

It should be emphasised that the DB offer of finance has not been taken up to date but clearly remains the backstop position for RED, and therefore provides a surety that Siana development WILL proceed into production in the first half of 2011, but the overall valuations will vary depending upon whether RED takes up the DB offer or some other which maybe comprises a mix of debt plus equity. 

I have ignored excess cash that RED may hold, that could also impact on the final amounts raised for Siana development (ie RED does not actually need to take up an entire US$40 million funding to complete development PLUS maintain exploration for its 97.6% owned Mapawa project to the north of Siana due to its current cash position that must still be around A$57 million).

I have ASSUMED additional equity at 12.5 cents which I suggest is EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE, so this will have a profound negative impact on additional fund raising as a means of funding:

Therefore, if we look at the different scenarios, all in millions except CPS (being cents per share):
DEBT(US$) EQUITY(US$) TOTAL(US$)  NPV(A$) ISSUED SHARES RED CPS
40            0                 40               377        989                38.1
20            20               40               395     1,170                 33.8
10            30               40               404     1,260                 32.1
0              40               40              413      1,350                 30.6

Thus under ANY scenario, whether debt or highly priced equity funding RED share price is valued at greater than 30 cents per share, compared to current price of 12 cents ie 2 1/2 times more than current share price!

I stand by my view that its only a matter of time now for RED share price to move appreciably above current level. NO argument such as management mediocrity, past share price performance, etc etc, used by other posters, will mean anything once the market decides ITS TIME to go UP!


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## Hurricane (29 August 2010)

Thanks Beatle, great fundamental analysis. I'd be interested to hear from anyone that has some technical insight into RED.......


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## Hurricane (30 August 2010)

So who brought that 30 million @ 0.13???? come on now Beatle own up mate....


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## fatsoh (30 August 2010)

interesting to see over 30 mill taken out on open with no x trade

you would think that is a positve, but market still looks wary 

then there's always stale bulls as well


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## beatle (30 August 2010)

Interesting to see the cap taken out, and I do confirm that I'm not an insider so have no idea of who was the seller, and I would be interested to know if the capper really was a seller - until its confirmed I am of the view it was not meant to be taken out! My view is that it was meant to remain in place until the final negotiations are completed re the US$40million funding to complete the Siana build. 

In fact I’m also of the view that we have not seen any news re the shallow drillhole results at Mapawa because management didn't want to upset the state of play with finance discussions that must be happening currently. 

Of course I’m only speculating on that, BUT one thing I am not speculating on is that it’s just a matter of time for RED to really have a genuine market re-rating, and move closer to its fundamental value, which is in the 30’s cents range depending upon the final mix of debt and equity and equity pricing for the US$40 million.


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## Tukker (31 August 2010)

That move looks mega suspicious. Like an inside deal or bet someone made. Surely such a move hits some red flags along the way. Interesting to see what announcements are made in the following days.


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## anderbond (31 August 2010)

Well, yesterday was interesting. The takeout of the 29 million odd shares at commencement set the scene for a very solid day. I heard a rumour the big seller might be BT, and that it was a genuine sale, however it is a rumour only. It does however seem that it was a genuine sale, although in discussing the manner in which it was done with a broker, he says he cannot recall such a large parcel in a small stock being placed on the open market like this. The great thing is that after a few days it was taken out, and we may see the emergence of a new player, or an existing one taking the opportunity to build a bigger position. Either way, it should now give some blue sky to the SP. Yesterday's moves must surely prove that everything is on track as reported by management. I have wondered if the recent North America presentation may have raised  interest and resulted in a decision by an institution to get involved. Further news from the company is now eagerly awaited. Beatle, your number crunching is much appreciated as I am sure it gives a lot of support to the thinking of other holders, and potential new ones. Hopefully, the negative posts might now start to disappear, as most of them add absolutely zero to the discussion. I get sick of the rubbish that some seem to delight in posting, especially on HC for reasons that completely escape me.
AB


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## beatle (31 August 2010)

Anderbond, I agree with your sentiments re the negative posters completely, and at times I wonder if they are posting on behalf of a corporate trying to cool the price and trading activity down! 

As for yesterday's raging trade for 1 day followed by todays lull - to me it supports my view that the big cap was not planned to be taken out yesterday and perhaps was a surprise opportunistic strike by some group (maybe a gold producer?) going against the general grain of RED market makers.

With your past comment about DB exclusivity lasting till end of Sept I have a feeling we will see another month of this malaise, but your comment that the trading yesterday confirms the value of RED in the longer term I agree with entirely. 

As I mentioned yesterday I find it interesting there is no news out re Mapawa shallow drilling, and I don't think its a coincidence, I feel as though RED management are not in a big rush to have those holes sampled and assayed before bedding down the funding - for concern it could ignite the market ahead of the right time for it to go!


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## beatle (1 September 2010)

It should be noted that the 29.4 million shares traded on Monday may never become part of a substantial shareholder notice, as it represents less than 5%and therefore unless part of a larger parcel will not find its way into the public arena.

The gold price has spiked, if it stays at around US$1,276 in the next hours gold stocks will be the rage for tomorrow, but I'm still of the view that RED is unlikely to share in the activity (UNLESS the funding is resolved!). RED has its own timeframe and that must revolve around funding being finalised prior to any more trading action in my view.


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## beatle (1 September 2010)

We live and learn - I'm surprised that RED has traded relatively strongly this morning, although its surely related to the strengthening gold price unless the traders have a view that the funding is close to being finalised. (And of course there was a typo with my last post, that I meant US$1,246/oz not US$1,276!).

But my view remains that the real re-rating for RED should follow soon after the ASX release of the final funding package being completed. Then any insto's wanting to get on board won't be able to rely on cheap shares being dangled out as we have seen recently. 

AND IF RED's announcement of the funding package coincides with a rising gold price around current levels THEN I would expect the re-rating will be most exciting!


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## anderbond (2 September 2010)

Hi Guys, On Monday RBS Morgans made RED its High risk/High reward Trading Call of the Week. It recommended buying at 13 cents with a target of 15.5 cents. Today it has closed the call as the stock hit the target price yesterday with a take profits recommendation. They have claimed a 19% profit in 4 days. I wonder what the total impact of the initial call was, and particularly what impact today's call will have. AB


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## beatle (2 September 2010)

Another most informative post Anderbond. I wonder how RBS made that call, its almost they have predicted one of the mini-cycles that RED seems to being going through month after month, but did it cause the take out of the cap, I don't believe it did - my view is that it was taken out by a longer term opportunistic investor.

Its amazing to have RBS then put cold water on RED 4 days later when it arived at the early call sell price. Its clearly just a trading view i am sure.

As I mentioned earlier Anderbond, if your call of the DB exclusivity runs out at end of September I can't see RED moving up much until that date, UNLESS RED achieves a favourable funding package prior to then (either with DB on a modified basis or an alternative funding group, debt and/or equity).


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## beatle (2 September 2010)

The Possibility of a Takeover of RED

On HC Colinjc posed the question re which shareholders would like to see a takeover attempt of RED. Clearly this was in reference to many posters frustrations with the way the share price has been traveling along with the delays with final financing being achieved.

I would like to put the following comment regarding the scenario of a takeover of RED:

Any corporate considering a takeover of RED will fall into 1 of 2 different groups:
1. A takeover with a view to increasing gold production of the acquirer based predominantly on Siana production and value. The likely acquirer will be a mid-tier gold producer or base metals company seeking diversification.
2. A takeover by a much larger gold company taking a view on Mapawa.

At this stage I suggest there is too little information for Mapawa potential for any company from Group 2 to consider a takeover, thus the acquirer is likely to come from Group 1 companies, and value of a takeover will predominantly fall into the DCF valuation of Siana, less discount (for production start-up risk and future gold price risk).

Acquirers most likely would come from Australian and overseas groups (but principally not Australian based producers) IMO as it would better fit the risk profile of such companies although Australian companies with past overseas activity could be suited to such. This could include non-ASX listed companies, esp Asian or Canadian companies having a higher risk appetite for Asian based operations.

In determining the initial takeover bid price, the acquirer would have to make an offer at a price that clearly is a significant premium to current share price, but below DCF valuation price. Since current valuation of Siana is around 40 cents per share (based on current RED shares on issue) and the future funding of RED is not clearly determined (as to either debt or equity of mix of both) therefore there will be a discount to cover such.
Any takeover could include a condition that it would have to be subject to funding arrangements for Siana development. That offer could be a mix of share for share swap (I have previously suggested this would be an ideal path for a currently producing company that is currently enjoying a share price premium to cash flow forecasts for the acquirer such as Medusa, which has a market cap of A$750 million despite its cash flows being nothing like that, but it seems MML is not interested in such a deal with RED).

What does this mean for current RED shareholders? Any takeover offer being made in the interim would not result in such a high price as the DCF, possibly around the mid 20's cents range, although it would provide a means to immediately have RED re-rated from its current trading range. I do not believe that many insto's would seriously consider such a price offer to be in the best interests of their investment outlook for RED, but those with a shorter time horizon would see it as a way of immediately monetizing an investment.

The real benefit would be to have the development of Siana go ahead under the direction of RED, with a focus on adding value through Mapawa exploration, that way in the medium term Siana value should be fully priced in RED stock, and a premium added for Mapawa as exploration continues (subject to exploration continuing to add value of course).

For an acquirer there is immense value in considering RED as a takeover target now -:
1. It delivers gold production via a long life, low cash cost operation;
2. If the offer price is around mid-20's cents then it is acquired at a discount to full value, which is exceedingly rare in the gold market;
3. If opens up the door to exciting larger gold production targets such as Mapawa and Madja porphyry gold targets;
4. If the acquisition occurs PRIOR to final funding being achieved then it provides the opportunity for the acquirer to use its own balance sheet to fund the project in possibly a more capital efficient means.

I look forward to the first acquirer taking a look at RED (lol).


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## Bigukraine (2 September 2010)

beatle said:


> I take your point Fatsoh (and yes I'm over-exuberant on RED).
> 
> In regard to the timeframes, well I believe we all know the project timeframes very well, unless there is a change in plans at which time RED will be forced to provide a status update to the market since its a critical market sensitive subject. So i don't believe anyone saying that the big boys are better informed on that than us shareholders (perhaps a few days in advance maybe to the insiders in the company but nothing significant in respect to first gold pour).
> 
> ...






anderbond said:


> Well, yesterday was interesting. The takeout of the 29 million odd shares at commencement set the scene for a very solid day. I heard a rumour the big seller might be BT, and that it was a genuine sale, however it is a rumour only. It does however seem that it was a genuine sale, although in discussing the manner in which it was done with a broker, he says he cannot recall such a large parcel in a small stock being placed on the open market like this. The great thing is that after a few days it was taken out, and we may see the emergence of a new player, or an existing one taking the opportunity to build a bigger position. Either way, it should now give some blue sky to the SP. Yesterday's moves must surely prove that everything is on track as reported by management. I have wondered if the recent North America presentation may have raised  interest and resulted in a decision by an institution to get involved. Further news from the company is now eagerly awaited. Beatle, your number crunching is much appreciated as I am sure it gives a lot of support to the thinking of other holders, and potential new ones. Hopefully, the negative posts might now start to disappear, as most of them add absolutely zero to the discussion. I get sick of the rubbish that some seem to delight in posting, especially on HC for reasons that completely escape me.
> AB






beatle said:


> Anderbond, I agree with your sentiments re the negative posters completely, and at times I wonder if they are posting on behalf of a corporate trying to cool the price and trading activity down!
> 
> As for yesterday's raging trade for 1 day followed by todays lull - to me it supports my view that the big cap was not planned to be taken out yesterday and perhaps was a surprise opportunistic strike by some group (maybe a gold producer?) going against the general grain of RED market makers.
> 
> ...




Anderbond and Beatle,

Beatle, I would like to state by your own admission that you at times are over exuberant on RED ,so another point of view with (as has been quoted )of little or no substance ,can still be a valid opinion on the situation of RED (as i stated in my previous post re the amount of time of hardly any movement in the right direction re share price of RED).
I'ts little points like mine that get treated with disdain by supporters of particular stocks and recent history shows if a few of the "negative" posters comments were balanced with the "over-exuberant" ones expectations in certain stocks would be tempered and realistic ..... CDU comes to mind !

Anderbond,
You stated "i heard a rumour the big seller might be BT but it was only a rumour" and then said in the same post....

"hopefully, the negative posts might start to disappear as most of them add absolutely zero to the discussion. I am sick of the rubbish that some seem to delight in posting."

I stated that the price of RED was stagnate which you can see on any chart,

your comment about hearing of "rumour's" imo falls into (your words) "I am sick of the rubbish that some seem to delight in posting" area.

In summary not all posters stick up charts and figures that would make the average accountant cringe but do have the right to contribute the best way they can and negative or positive and hopefully it leads to a balanced view on any particular stock..... my and you can now resume transmission......


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## beatle (2 September 2010)

BigUkraine, I would like to make a couple of points for clarity regarding your last post:

1. I have no problem whatsoever of anyone posting on RED that has a different opinion to my own opinion of RED. In fact I welcome it, but of course any posts made with no foundation or basis tend not to have much credibility with me (and I may just ignore such or refute them if the statements are clearly misinformation or misleading, or require clarification).

2. I am also frustrated with the price sitting in the current trading range and the finance being delayed, but thats the situation we find us shareholders find ourselves in at the moment and you can't extricate yourself from that other than to sell out and I for one have no intention of doing that prior to a big revaluation of RED happening.

3. Many of my posts on RED are based on the observation of the DCF valuation that Siana provides to RED, which is at a substantial premium to current RED share price, or based on other fundamental information regarding Siana/Mapawa as I have followed the technical story and history of the RED5 company over many years. 
I believe it provides an insight to RED that other newer investors would not have if they have just begun following RED.

4. My exuberance for RED as a longer term investment has already been acknowledged, and I will continue to hold that view until/unless I see value has changed from what it currently is relative to the share price.

5. The intention of my posts are to ensure that any investors or shareholders in RED that do not have a technical view on their own are well informed by my posts. 
In fact I am relatively conservative and objective with my valuations for RED -I might add that I have completed the valuation of mining stocks using Mining Investment Analysis via the Securities Institute of Australia (topped the course in my year when there were about 200 odd studying), and I have been a mining analyst with a stockbroking firm, so I have the skills and knowledge to make my observations. (I am a career geologist, with over 40 years experience in the mining industry).

6. I have NO skills whatsoever regarding price charting and have never considered it my forte and have always stated such when I have sought other commentaries on charting, and therefore when my pricing valuation coincides with actual share price is conjectural.

Can you give me some idea of what I have stated previously that has upset you with regarding your past posts, I am happy to make further comment as is relevant.


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## anderbond (2 September 2010)

Hi BigUkraine, My comments about negative rubbish were about some of the stuff posted on HC. Nothing about your good self or your comments. I agree with Beatle, everyone is entitled to their own opinion but some seem to believe in all sorts of weird theories and conspiracies, none of which have any basis or add anything to a discussion. Others simply bag the management. Again it adds little. Now in respect of my posting. The source of the "BT rumour" I mentioned was the Chairman of the company. You see, I believe that rather than indulge myself in fantasy, it is far better to talk directly to those people who actually might have any knowledge or thoughts in situations like the one that arose last week with the 29 odd million share parcel that appeared for sale. Whether it was BT or not is I admit not that material but I post the information as a means of trying to help others remain informed. I too sometimes feel a little frustrated at the lack of progress with the SP, but this does not mean that there is no progress with the project. Like others, I have actually travelled to Siana and spent a day with the MD reviewing the project. I am not a geologist and certainly do not have the credentials for example of Beatle, but I do believe that if investing more than  "pin" money, it is best to know as much as you can. This also means maintaining contact with the company. This is open to all investors if they care to take the trouble. AB


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## Bigukraine (3 September 2010)

beatle said:


> BigUkraine, I would like to make a couple of points for clarity regarding your last post:
> 
> 1. I have no problem whatsoever of anyone posting on RED that has a different opinion to my own opinion of RED. In fact I welcome it, but of course any posts made with no foundation or basis tend not to have much credibility with me (and I may just ignore such or refute them if the statements are clearly misinformation or misleading, or require clarification).
> 
> ...






anderbond said:


> Hi BigUkraine, My comments about negative rubbish were about some of the stuff posted on HC. Nothing about your good self or your comments. I agree with Beatle, everyone is entitled to their own opinion but some seem to believe in all sorts of weird theories and conspiracies, none of which have any basis or add anything to a discussion. Others simply bag the management. Again it adds little. Now in respect of my posting. The source of the "BT rumour" I mentioned was the Chairman of the company. You see, I believe that rather than indulge myself in fantasy, it is far better to talk directly to those people who actually might have any knowledge or thoughts in situations like the one that arose last week with the 29 odd million share parcel that appeared for sale. Whether it was BT or not is I admit not that material but I post the information as a means of trying to help others remain informed. I too sometimes feel a little frustrated at the lack of progress with the SP, but this does not mean that there is no progress with the project. Like others, I have actually travelled to Siana and spent a day with the MD reviewing the project. I am not a geologist and certainly do not have the credentials for example of Beatle, but I do believe that if investing more than  "pin" money, it is best to know as much as you can. This also means maintaining contact with the company. This is open to all investors if they care to take the trouble. AB




Beatle and Anderbond,

In a nutshell the point i would like to make is that from what i have seen if i was an investor in RED, the activities of late would lead me to have concerns.

1. The 29mil odd share sell off and purchase on market is not the norm and an explanation from the co would of been appreciated.

2. The Deutsche bank deal for finance.... why does it take over a month for RED and it's advisers to analyse..... could the terms re the security over the properties be erroneous to RED.......so a stumbling block to the acceptance of finance needs to negotiated ?

3.  45% of the cap costs have been fixed,big tick to mgt there but the  55% remaining could impact the revenue.


Imo the market needs clarification,and i am not offended by any one point that the two of you have made per say, but with all of the positive points you can put across the commercial reality to this point are the points i have made above.

It may all come out in the wash and investors may make a motza but for the time that they spent waiting for this to come into fruition lots of other opp's have sailed past imo..... good luck to you two and hope it turns out to your advantage.


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## beatle (3 September 2010)

All of Anderbond’s points are well made especially his main point that if you invest more than pin money you must follow the story closely with reliable (and various) sources of information to form your opinion. 

In fact I do want to make the point that I was very critical of RED management a few years ago and posted such on HC – but with the intention to try to force change within the team. Since those days there has been considerable positive progress and we have a completed study confirming economics, and all approvals in place.

The last hurdle, that of the final funding package of US$40 million, has already been offered but RED is yet to make a decision as to whether that offer is the best it can achieve and I applaud management for that decision to take a careful measured approach to this offer. I’m of the view that Deutsche Bank has led the company to believe that a simpler structured package without any warrants was to be offered and this was changed in the last weeks of negotiations. Therefore RED should re-consider its options for that funding.

Regarding your points BigUkraine:

1. Whilst I am not part of RED management, you can be 100% assured that RED was not responsible for or involved in the sale of 29.4 million shares and therefore has no reason nor interest to comment on that sale in an ASX release (of course management may have an opinion on what its all about, but that is not the role or business of a company management). Have you ever seen any company make comment officially regarding share sales etc. 

I agree that the on-market offer and sale was unusual, I stated at the time I haven’t seen it ever done for all of my investing career, and therefore believed it to be a “capper”.

2. I have already answered your point 2, that I believe that DB surprised RED with a vastly different (negatively) offer,  and RED is now re-considering its options for that funding package, and this will take a bit longer to bed down. It may well be that RED accepts a DB offer (which may well be revised).
RED does have internal funds to maintain the development progress at Siana to meet its timeframe of first gold pour in April next year, therefore it wants to do the best with its funding arrangement in a suitable timeframe.

3. I agree with you that without the final funding bedded down the timeframe and therefore gold production (=revenue) is at risk. The DB offer guarantees funding, but is it the best offer available, hopefully RED will make the decision within the next month or so.

4. I agree entirely with your point re opportunity cost, and it has been a big issue for me having invested in RED for many years. But time is now much closer and anyone holding on over the past hard years would surely want to hold on with the line now drawn in the sand.


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## beatle (3 September 2010)

Trading in RED the first couple of hours on Friday is quite brisk, with RED moving past the roadblock of 15.5 cents, trading as high as 17 cents but now back at 16.5 cents. Volume is good, at 6.85 million shares. 

What i do like about the activity is that the Bots are at work, always trading UP, and that to me means one thing - there is an interest to continue the hoarding, by at least one party, of more RED shares. To me that means one thing - RED is going up from here and having broken over the crucial 15.5 cents mark things are looking good (and yes of course I am over-exuberant, its exciting to see it up again today).

What does the trading mean with regard to the project/company - is it Mapawa drill results, is it the finance offer getting finalised? Who knows, or is it just  an insto taking a position that it wants more, I'm sure we will see soon enough. The line in the sand has been drawn already.


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## Moit (3 September 2010)

Hi all, hi beatle. It'"s certainly been a great week, and todays trading activity has just topped things off. Its great to see new investors jumping on board and finally seeing value, even at the current 16.5 cent range. What would be great now is the expected Mapawa results announced or the debt financing package released, then we may see that re-rating alot quicker than expected... We finally broke the 15.5 cent resistance level. So whats that Beatle, 29 odd% for the week if it stays where it is? 

A very excited and also over exuberant holder of RED 5. Go RED GO


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## Bigukraine (3 September 2010)

Moit said:


> Hi all, hi beatle. It'"s certainly been a great week, and todays trading activity has just topped things off. Its great to see new investors jumping on board and finally seeing value, even at the current 16.5 cent range. What would be great now is the expected Mapawa results announced or the debt financing package released, then we may see that re-rating alot quicker than expected... We finally broke the 15.5 cent resistance level. So whats that Beatle, 29 odd% for the week if it stays where it is?
> 
> A very excited and also over exuberant holder of RED 5. Go RED GO




Yes have to agree,the bot's have done a fantastic job over the last hour the volume has been huge !.... lucky i got my 30% by way of SER and after some research took me all of a month..... damit


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## beatle (3 September 2010)

Haha, fellow exuberant Moit. I agree its been a great week for RED. But the exciting thing in my view (of course a biased view, note that BigUkraine) is that we have NOT seen the re-rating in RED, we have just seen the trading warm things up and if we end today above 15.5 cents its a real positive (in my uneducated chartists interpretation). 

Whether this trading is a sign that an announcement is getting prepared is yet to be confirmed, maybe its just traders topping up in anticipation of a bigger move later on. It might still be a month away from an announcement of the funding, so don't hold your breathe for the re-rating so soon, UNLESS something comes out of left field such as a new substantial trader being announced. If there was I would love it being a gold producer, just to add some spice to the register!

BigUkraine, do you mean you are also in RED or just in SER? (congratulations if you are in SER and I take your point about opportunity cost, but a win is a win whatever - I won't be dropping shares in RED now just because its moved a few cents in the past days, the real move is yet to happen in my view).


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## Bigukraine (3 September 2010)

beatle said:


> Haha, fellow exuberant Moit. I agree its been a great week for RED. But the exciting thing in my view (of course a biased view, note that BigUkraine) is that we have NOT seen the re-rating in RED, we have just seen the trading warm things up and if we end today above 15.5 cents its a real positive (in my uneducated chartists interpretation).
> 
> Whether this trading is a sign that an announcement is getting prepared is yet to be confirmed, maybe its just traders topping up in anticipation of a bigger move later on. It might still be a month away from an announcement of the funding, so don't hold your breathe for the re-rating so soon, UNLESS something comes out of left field such as a new substantial trader being announced. If there was I would love it being a gold producer, just to add some spice to the register!
> 
> BigUkraine, do you mean you are also in RED or just in SER? (congratulations if you are in SER and I take your point about opportunity cost, but a win is a win whatever - I won't be dropping shares in RED now just because its moved a few cents in the past days, the real move is yet to happen in my view).




Well at least it's getting near your 52wk high and all the best of british to holders and no, not in RED but have had my day's in the sun on stock's ,CAP comes to mind (read asf thread).had fun with SHX-GRY take over as well....and am holding only a few others due to the state of play in our mkt's .


what's your take on the current bot trading beatle ?


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## hugh_jarzz (4 September 2010)

Hi Beatle....my take on today's move is that it is simply a reflection of the Goldcorp bid for Andean and the implications for the gold sector as a whole. AND is similar in a way to RED in that its' assets are situated outside Australia, but, AND's measured and indicated resources of 3.4m oz gold and 27m oz silver, far surpass RED's resources. Additionally, their grades at 5.5g/t are higher than RED.
The interesting thing about the bid to me is that Goldcorp are paying over $1000/oz for current resources (remember, NCM only paid around $230/oz for LGL a few months back) RED's EV/Resource oz is under the average for the sector (around $150/oz) 
What all this tells me is that predators are placing high values on high grade, low cost operations. I'm not sure that RED fits these parameters as yet as the expected 100k oz pa production from Siana at around $350/oz wouldn't really have them salivating, as it doesn't have scaleability, however, Mapawa is still the wild card.
BigUkraine makes the most valid point of all when he talks about opportunity cost as the continuing debacle of the debt financing package, and the tardiness of results from Mapawa (3 shallow holes only drilled in nearly 12 months???!!!) makes the unwary regard RED with suspicion, and rightly so! Just my thoughts.


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## beatle (4 September 2010)

Hi Hugh_Jarzz, you make some interesting points, some of which I agree with. 
There is no doubt that the takeover of AND has helped investors recognize the value in the gold sector and the fact that AND’s unique high grade project commands a high takeover price. However, it’s a case of the chicken and the egg, and what has caused the real interest in the overall gold sector, is it AND’s project or the historically high gold price? I suggest the latter.

I have been of the view for a long time that RED’s excessively long lead time to develop the BFS and gain all the necessary approvals for Siana has been a major reason for RED being excessively discounted. Its only as it gets much closer to production will we see a considerable re-rating of RED once the market realizes its really going to happen, that Siana will produce gold and the BFS has indicated that it fits the description of a long life, low cost project. 

I agree with you that Siana is a relatively small gold deposit, probably having 1 – 2 million ozs gold potential, and is not going to be a target of the larger gold producers – I would think its more appealing to a mid-tier gold producer seeking an incremental increase in gold production (plus 100,000 ozs added to their production profile within 2 – 3 years). But your view that it would not have some mid-tier companies salivating I believe is not correct, its equivalent to annual revenue of US$124.6 million at today’s gold price! (That is not peanuts!) in fact it would be right on the radars of a number of companies at present due to it being a low cost, long life project, and with RED being highly discounted based on DCF valuation is a unique opportunity!

Mapawa exploration drilling has taken a while to gather momentum, but the drillholes completed to date confirm the potential for a considerable deposit that surely will be on the radars of much larger gold companies. Anglogold only walked when it was clear that RED would not be held to a proposal that was clearly one-sided for RED (on the wrong side!) and that now opens up the door for RED to add considerable value for its shareholders. RED has already had a number of parties contact them more recently, seeking to do a deal but fortunately RED now has enough cash to carry out a lot of exploration prior to making any future decision on Mapawa with third parties. 

I’m not sure what you refer to as 3 shallow holes, the deeper holes to date have confirmed alteration and gold (plus copper) mineralization extends to significant depths. The drilling program is now continuing in earnest with 3 drill rigs drilling both shallow and deeper holes – while the start up of the exploration has taken some time to get going, its now ready to produce results that will add considerable knowledge to the Mapawa exploration model in coming months.

As for your comments about “the unwary regard RED with suspicion, and rightly so!” I agree that it has been the reason why RED share price is not yet at a level that it should be at, but with runs on the board in the past 18 months and plenty of news due on funding, development and mapawa exploration in the next 12 months I can see RED finally achieve its rerating and trade at a PREMIUM to DCF well within that period. I hope that current RED shareholders can recognize that too to ensure they don’t sell out too soon to finally get the value that is promised!


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## kash (6 September 2010)

Well now we know who was buying. RED Change in substantial holding  Baker steel capital managers


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## Hurricane (6 September 2010)

Yep, they also loaded up on GDO another fledgling gold producer out of South Africa.....


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## fatsoh (6 September 2010)

kash said:


> Well now we know who was buying. RED Change in substantial holding  Baker steel capital managers




but we still don't know who took out the 29.4 mill last week

either way, RED is being bought up by bigger players

expect stale bulls to exit from here


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## beatle (6 September 2010)

Hi Fatsoh, the increased holdings by Baker Steel is another sign of the evolution of RED over the years from raw explorer to it now being on the verge of full scale development of a significant gold project at Siana. 

I read the knockers in RED, who constantly rubbish the company for its past performance, and fail to recognise that RED is not the same company nowadays. I am concerned that the longer term holder might decide to weaken and sell at the last hurdle to what is possibly going to be an exciting future (company and share price!). History is not always a good indicator of the future particularly for a company has evolved with the completion of the BFS, therefore just a reference to the cyclical nature of RED share price is not a good guide to the future share price.

Just consider, some of those knockers in RED MIGHT have alterior motives, for example, is Smity a past disgruntled employee! Seems to me he has more than a chip on his shoulder about share price - he is a new holder (if he is a holder at all!).

Based on the current share price, RED value from Siana is now at 31.7 cents IF we raised US$40 million purely through a placement at 15.5 cents, and it only gets better if we introduce any debt into the mix. That confirms to me why Baker Steel etc are only just getting in now, and other more conservative insto's will want in once the finance is bedded down. Then it will blow the cyclical share price in my view.


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## Hurricane (6 September 2010)

At this stage all I want to see is the price consolidate around it's current level, hopefully that's followed by some better news regarding finance! It is encouraging to see BS adding to it's holdings, it seems that they have an eye for companies like RED and can see potential - just as some of the other Redbulls around here do!!


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## anderbond (6 September 2010)

Hi guys, a most encouraging day. Agree that the further increase in stake by Baker Steel is very positive. Looks to me like there is further accumulation going on. The question is around whether it is BS and or another? Beatle, it is not that many months before the gold pour. Have you booked your ticket yet? If it breaks to the 20c mark this week , I might even break out a special bottle of RED to celebrate with.(lol) I am not a chartist or trader, just an investor in companies with the right mix of fundamentals.So I don't worry much if the SP backtracks a little but there is buying pressure right now. I see that on HC some are still saying that they are waiting for the finance package. Well, it is there and according to CJ is regarded as acceptable. So it is certainly possible they might decide to go with it.We should know sometime towards end September. Also more drilling reports are due.  Either way, things will happen soon. Stay tranquil and let management do its job.
AB


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## beatle (6 September 2010)

Hi Anderbond, and yes it was a good day from a trading point of view (even though I know almost nothing about charting!). The fact that the volume was up, that it traded at its high at the close and that bidders are strong at the close suggests to me that we have not seen the last of positive price movements in the next days (always subject to gold price of course!).

I'm also of the view that there remains significant hoarding by at least 1 major buyer at the present which reflects on that buyers view that RED is not going to stop at around current price and are not in there for a couple of cents - there will be a re-rating to bring RED closer to its DCF value in my view. 

I have assumed no debt at US$1,247/oz = 38 cents per share. If its fully diluted at placement price of 15.5 cents with no debt to raise the funds then  = 31 cents per share. The current Deutsche Bank offer probably puts it somewhere in between, say around 35 cents per share!

Although I have not booked my fare to Surigao I will definitely be going if getting an invite for the official mine opening - but this time I will not be eating Balot (when I was there last time I had to eat it just to show I was a stupid foreigner!). I will look forward to meeting all from the chat forums at that time (but always retaining our anonymity for chat forums - what happens in SE Asia remains in SE Asia, lol)!

I am a bit confused that we haven't seen anything new re Mapawa but wonder if management want to bed down the funding first rather than confuse the market with exploration results. But I may be wrong about that.


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## mgm1a (7 September 2010)

Guys thanks for encouraging words to hang tight.

I noticed that recent Qtrly Cashflow was a few days after the Qtly Activities, whic is odd so I went looking at the details. It mentioned the issue of 28,000,000 shares to Merril Crowe and so I went to the April Appendix 3B where the total issue agreed is to be 40,000,000, with a first issue of 28M and the balance on "conditions precedent".

Theres' that phrase again. 

Question - the "conditions precedent" for this Transfer arrangement would be different from those of the financing, so why hasn't it happened I wonder. We should obviously get these conditions precedent before finance to be arranged?

Any thoughts?


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## Moit (7 September 2010)

Hi Beatle, Anderbond and others. Well it has been a fantastic week or so and yesterdays continuation of the momentum was excellent. 

Well Beatle, Anderbond the Mapawa drilling results are out. It seems like good news, especially if RED 5 management are comparing the mill grades with Boddington and cadia/ Cadia East operations. Of course your thoughts and contributions Beatle will be GREATLY appreciated as always.

Lets just hope new investors like the results and the current rocket up REDS bum will continue to burn. lol, Go RED Go !!!


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## beatle (8 September 2010)

Mapawa Shallow Drilling Announcement
RED5’s announcement regarding 6 relatively shallow holes (actually not so shallow!) confirm that the Mapawa LSY porphyry project remains on track as a likely future standalone gold (plus minor copper) operation. All drillholes have confirmed significant widths of profitable gold mineralisation based on a large scale high throughput operation. Importantly the latest drilling confirms that shallow mining will provide considerable ore feed at grades which will allow the development of a large open pit operation, unheeded by any need to mine excessive waste from surface.
Also, RED confirms that the silver content is reasonably low, which is indicative of alteration styles associated with porphyry systems some distant from the core of higher grade mineralisation ie it is highly probable that the best is yet to come! Notwithstanding that the core of the system may not have been located to date, the large tonnage potential already confirmed by drilling so far indicates that the project should be economic subject to metallurgy being confirmed as having typical recoveries and reagent consumptions, which is usually found as being the case in these systems.
To put things in perspective, the LSY footprint based on geophysical work to date, has confirmed the system to be extremely large and of world class potential. With gold grades located to date suggesting mineralisation around the 0.8 – 1.2 g/t Au there is no reason why Mapawa won’t develop into a large scale standalone project producing several hundred thousand ounces of gold per year. This will be an attractive project for larger gold producers, with potential to develop an overall resource of plus 3 million ounces of gold.
NO VALUE has been imputed into the current RED share price based on trading around 16.5 – 19 cents – Siana alone values RED at close to 40 cents per share based on a gold price around US$1,255/oz.
This announcement regarding Mapawa has strengthened my resolve to hold my shares for a much longer and higher move, and I hope other shareholders don’t weaken based on glib talk about low Mapawa grades etc, and note that the insto’s are not big sellers from announcements made to date, they are buyers!
RED also confirmed in this announcement that Siana remains on schedule for gold production as previously announced, this is very reassuring to shareholders and investors!


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## anderbond (8 September 2010)

Crikey Beatle. I am stunned by your comments. What a beautiful situation to be in .................Siana nearing production so that will be in operation while they continue to explore and assess Mapawa. SP will get to a decent level at some stage, and plenty of blue sky beyond. I know I am an enthusiast but what a good goldie to own. I hope they look at additional listings once production occurs as the less risk averse off shore investors would surely drive it on. AB


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## beatle (9 September 2010)

Anderbond, I also am very biased on RED as its my baby, BUT I do have a very careful, considered and conservative approach to evaluating new projects, and I am delighted to hear of the recent shallow drilling results - I was getting a bit worried when there was no news forthcoming, but this announcement relieved me of those concerns.

The Mapawa drilling is a real plus for RED, and actually you make an interesting comment regarding the floating of a separate vehicle for it - I would like to consider that a bit more before making any comments on it (at this stage though RED still is yet to add real value to it and its yet to be confirmed to be a standalone project although the shallow drilling results adds to that case being more likely).

I am now more concerned that those posters seeking to play down RED's assets (for whatever reasons unknown to me other than frustration of the delays with finance that we all share) will play on the minds of the interested longer term holders and will drop shares at this critical time, at the pen-ultimate time for the funding being put to bed and a time when no value at all is being ascribed to Mapawa let alone a severe discount for Siana value. 

What is also a real positive, and more due to luck than good planning, RED is likely to put together the funding package at a time when the gold price is at an all time high - I just hope that RED management heed the opportunity to put in some hedging at the time of the finance, preferably forwards that can be rolled (ie no cost to RED) or a gold loan, which will underpin any drop in gold over the next months (although I concede that the gold price does tend to be stronger as we approach Christmas - also with higher gold borrowing costs).


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## fastbuck1 (9 September 2010)

beatle what also needs to be mentioned in regards to gold price is America's new 300 billion dollar stimulus package that will be a boon for the gold price.....red5 could be pouring gold with a price of $1350 US and we could have a share price of .60......next week we should blast through .20..


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## beatle (9 September 2010)

Why next week Fastbuck - why not tomorrow (lol). In fact I looked at the close of trading today and thought that it was very much a contrived market with the last couple of trades hitting 18.5 cents - it was as though the buyer was trying to make the technicals look good for RED with it closing at the top of the candlestick (thats about as much as I know about charts though!).

But the trading today, would have me thinking that its about ready to run again, and probably break through the 19.5 cents. At the moment each half cent is hard yards, with lots of sellers, and my concern remains that its the smaller shareholder that is selling out just as RED is about to break into a new price range. I am convinced that RED is due to complete its funding arrangement in the next couple of weeks (based on Anderbonds calendar) and at that time we may see a few more bigger buyers - especially if you recall I had referred to a Melb based insto that is interested to get some RED (around 5 - 6%, say no less than 50 million shares) once it completes the last of the hurdles to development of Siana (ie the finance outstanding).

RED will break new ground, those expecting it to continuously drop back into the old familiar cycle have seriously lost their chance this time I think.


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## desjosie (10 September 2010)

Hi all, very much like the discussion all have had on this stock I have tried to read all 16 pages and get my head around it all .. And as a newcomer to the Sharemarket (only in the last few months) I was looking for a stock that has great potental to reward and having just brought a small parcel of these stocks, I really (hope) and believe that Red 5 Limited can deliver..My question as a newbie is how high can the share price go and what factors dictate them going higher..


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## beatle (10 September 2010)

Hi Dejosie, and welcome to RED share holding as well as to a poster on ASF.

Before I make any other comment you will realise that I am in love with RED therefore my comments will be seen as being very biased in terms of an investment in RED, and therefore you have to consider your own risk profile for any investment.

I am a fundamentalist, not having much knowledge regarding charting of stocks. I prefer to look at the assets of a company and derive some value from whatever basis and then establishment what might drive the share price up or down based on that value.

In terms of RED, it has completed a Bankable Feasibility Study for its 97.6% owned Siana gold project in the philippines. That BFS has been mostly completed by independent (and highly competent industry professional consultants), and that provides a good analysis of the Net Present Value of the project as it currently stands. That gives a value based on current gold price of US$1,246/oz of 41 cents per share for RED, compared to its current share price of around 17.5 cents! This suggests that over time the share price is likely to move up towards that price as it gets closer to first production at Siana, currently expected to be in April 2011. RED has got sufficient funds in house to continue the project construction, but needs to complete funding of another US$40 million (actually less than that but RED has indicated it will likely raise the funds to US$40 million) by way of either debt or equity or a mix of both. 

I believe that if the funding is completed in the next few weeks, and that appears to be the timetable for the funding, then it is likely RED will start to move towards that NPV value of 41 cents per share (subject always to gold price at the time), and once in production likely to trade at a premium to that (similarly to Medusa which trades at a considerable premium to its established reserves based DCF, but has a successful low cost mining operation about 150 kms south of Siana). RED's Siana gold project is low cost (not as low as Medusa's) but much longer reserves life (currently 10 years).

Mapawa, which RED also owns 97.6% is located about 30 kms up the road from Siana, and is shaping up (albeit early days) as a possibly very large tonnage lower gold grade (plus minor copper) project, potentially around 3 million or more ozs gold. There is no real indication of value for Mapawa at this stage, but could put a value way above Siana's if its promise continues on the path to what might be expected from the first 9 odd holes of information by RED. If Mapawa continues as per its current indications then RED could become a target for takeover by much larger industry players if RED share price doesn't reflect the values of Mapawa and Siana, even though Siana is limited to be say a 1 - 2 million ounce prize.

The biggest risk for RED is IF the finance of US$40 million is not completed, particularly within the next few weeks, thus Siana will not be developed on time or delayed for much longer. Thats a big IF!!! Similarly if there is some other issue in developing Siana or it doesn't shape up once in production, it will have a significant impact on the value of RED, but its less likely a risk I would suggest as Siana commences as a stock standard gold operation initially as an open pit, with typical processing requirements.
If there was some level of insecurity within Philippines then that is also a risk for RED share price, but Medusa share price has no discounting factor included any more, now that it is in production.


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## klmarc (10 September 2010)

Hi guys,

Just to add some more info (if not already posted..) to the brilliant Beatle-posts:

I have read two broker reports (Petra Capital july 12th and Wilson HTM aug 5th ) which both calculating all kinds of figures and indices mainly based upon Siana and no or a very small value for Mapawa.

Petra comes with a fully diluted very conservative NPV (Net Present Value) of 0,24 A$ and a minimal value of 5 Mln A$ for Mapawa(!), but indicates significant npv upside when drilling continue to yield positive assays (as it did per latest announcement). 

Wilson comes with a valuation of 0,29 A$ and a 12-mnth target price of 0,34 A$

Most interesting is a comps table to compare some figures with other miners like Adamus,Integra,Regis,Avoca,Focus,Dominion,Kingsgate and even Newcrest. 
At date of the report the EV of 58 mln (Enterprise Value= Market cap minus cash)  divided by the Reserve of 0,7 Million Ounces) figure is 69.
The EV/Reserves of the others are a factor 2 to 7 times as big.
The P/E-ratios of 2012 and 2013 are around 3,7 whilst others have a 3 to 6-fold. 
So at least a double or triple fold increase should be possible from 0,15 A$.

Need I say more ????  

I am a little biased as well, so do your own research or ask advise from a mentally and financially more stable person...

regards, klmarc

And yes, I do have some shares in RED5....
And no, I don't mind if the sp goes northbound...


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## desjosie (10 September 2010)

Beatle..
Thank you for answering my Question in away a newbie as I can understand .. I acknowledge and appreciate the passion you have for this stock and have great expectations myself in the future of Red... as you and all who own shares in Red.. I am looking forward to see the price start moving up.. and I'm sure we will have a great ride when it does.. In fact I am considering getting a few more before it does..


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## beatle (12 September 2010)

Hi guys, thanks for your kind words. I would like to make a few comments about your observations Klmarc.

Klmarc – your comparison to other listed companies and the EV/Reserves ratio. It certainly is another good argument that RED is currently highly discounted. In general we are comparing the already producing gold miners with RED, recognizing that RED is yet to produce an ounce of gold. Therefore someone investing in RED now is really punting that production will commence at or close to the deadline of April 2011. Since RED has rarely been punctual with meeting certain deadlines in the past the perpetual doubters out there for RED are betting that finance will not be achieved in a timeframe to enable that April 2011 (or close to it!) to be met.  That I believe is the reason for RED’s current discount in share price. IF we are to achieve the April or thereabouts production start-up RED needs to announce the final funding package within a short timeframe as the next phases of project capital need to be committed, and I for one believe that RED WILL get the funding package within that timeframe. If they don’t take up the Deutsche Bank offer then it may be a take up of equity funds from elsewhere (and my revised DCF models indicates that a value will drop if its done as equity instead of debt, but from 40 cps to more than 31 cps depending on the pricing of equity etc). I am yet to be convinced that they need or will take up a total US$40 million as that is more than necessary to complete Siana development and still maintain the momentum with Mapawa exploration. 

By the way, personally I’m not concerned if the production was to commence in May or June or July 2011, as it still means RED will be a significant gold producer soon! (Having already waited more than 12 years, I can wait another 3 months!). (But newcomers, eg Desjosie, might have a different time expectation and risk profile).

Klmarc, I was very interested in the stock valuations or $0.24 and $0.29 by Petra and Wilsons respectively, and I would like to make a comment with regard to that:

I had previously seen a valuation (now considerably dated), by Southern Cross Equities valuing RED at the time, of something like $0.26 when my own valuation was mid-30’s (when gold price was much lower than it is now). In the case of SCE I could see how they had developed the valuation model. Why there was such a discrepancy between my value and SCE - 1. SCE assumed that the gold price would fall away over time to US$1,000 and below (of course they are allowed to put any price on their forecast, but I used a flat gold price as it currently stands). 2. SCE used the base case model that I used, then inflated costs an average of 10% ie operating cost of  US$386/oz versus US$351/oz. It should be noted that the base case was developed by independent highly competent consultants which should be a good reliable model for estimating DCF (especially since they usually include their own conservative factors). Therefore any further conservatism on that model should be recognized as possibly being conservatism upon conservatism!

I have not seen the detailed models developed by Petra or Wilsons but clearly their assumptions in those models, need to be considered for things such as gold pricing expectation, operating costs, other contingency factors etc.

With regard to DCF analysis of gold miners, when in production most gold producers enjoy a considerable premium to the base case models based on ore reserves, and that premium tends to relate to operating margin, and reserve life. In the case of Medusa (also located in Mindanao and a good comparison for RED due to location, size of resources and expected production profiles plus exploration blue sky, but which has even lower gold production costs due to higher grade underground gold mining) that premium is huge – MML is capitalized at around $860 million at present (RED $171 million), and actually MML reserve is 5 years (RED is 9 years at present) – but MML operating cost is half of REDs at US$184/oz! I’m not trying to have a go at MML but suggest a reason why RED is likely to increase not just to the DCF model value but to some premium above that value!

I have previously suggested Mapawa could completely dwarf Siana in terms of value for RED once more information is received for exploration results, and in my view the latest drilling only continues to confirm that remains a strong possibility! I hope that RED is able to manage the exploration there without considering any other party coming involved at this stage. Mapawa is a most exciting project as its located within easy reach of infrastructure such as power, water, transport access, and a labour market, so will become a much more viable development than many high tonnage porphyries sitting in the back blocks of PNG or Indonesia. And its potential size becomes a magnet to major gold companies!

Desjosie, I would like to emphasise that its not a GIVEN that RED will get the funding bedded down in the next month or so, therefore if your very concerned about risk profile then maybe you should reconsider any further investments in RED till the funding is announced – some traders believe that RED is entrenched in a cycle that ranges between about 12 cents and 18.5 cents, therefore in that range we are already at the top, and the only way from here is down (of course I don’t need to say it, but I will, that I think that cycle and range will completely disappear as soon as funding is announced and production nears the horizon!)


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## klmarc (12 September 2010)

Hi Beatle/Fastbuck,

Just tuned in on Hotcopper and realised I had to be at Aussiestock etc.
I am in Venice,Italy now, just had lunch and a couple of wines so take it easy on me, because now I understand why they need the siesta's.....
I agree your reasonings about the (under)valuations of RED. And I also think that once the production of Siana comes closer, the discounting will dissappear and an upward rerating will occur. And not to forget the possibilities of Mapawa.....
I will be inline in a couple of hours; just let me know if you need more info....



regards,

Klmarc
hotcopperklmarc  at  gmail.com


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## beatle (13 September 2010)

Wow Klmarc, sounds like a great place to be - I presume you are drinking RED wine (lol!).
I agree with your views entirely Klmarc, and was most interested to read your comparative stats on other companies. If you have any other comparative information I think readers would love to become aware of it. Do you have a copy of the Wilson report on RED available that you could post or refer to a URL address?

You might not have picked up on it yet but Baker Steel have put out another substantial shareholder notice this morning, they are picking up more stock at the moment, a mere half million dollar investment to move to 8.2% shareholding. I guess BakerSteel will be now the insto to push the price upwards towards that technical valuation, its good to get the backing of a credible insto at this critical time.


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## beatle (13 September 2010)

Furniture, I am grateful for your input re the valuation of Southern Cross Equities. I am referring to a report out by SCE dated 17 Nov 2009, with a 12 month target of 27 cents (actually I mentioned 26 cents in my past post, it should have been 27 cents).


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## klmarc (13 September 2010)

Hi Beatle,

Just woke up and a busy day ahead..  Good to hear that bakersteel is broadening it's participation. They don't do that for fun..
I am not allowed to copy and paste here and I don't have an URL to refer to. But have a cryptic look in my other post for a way to get it  Same goes for close RED folowers.
Have to go now;tonight I'm online again. 

Cheers, klmarc


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## fastbuck1 (13 September 2010)

another great day for red, seems we may have a new surport base .17-.175 and hardly a peep over at h/c, even with the baker steel ann,  this could be the lul before the huge storm,the months are rolling on and the sp has only 1 way to go, finance update must be soon.......i'm getting board waiting for a .40 sp........


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## jancha (13 September 2010)

fastbuck1 said:


> another great day for red, seems we may have a new surport base .17-.175 and hardly a peep over at h/c, even with the baker steel ann,  this could be the lul before the huge storm,the months are rolling on and the sp has only 1 way to go, finance update must be soon.......i'm getting board waiting for a .40 sp........




On the contrary the sp can go either way. 
You'd only be fooling yourself if you truely believe that! 
 I feel the market is waiting on news hence the lull & that will determine the direction.


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## hugh_jarzz (14 September 2010)

I doubt whether there will be any fresh announcement on funding until the end of this month, given the break fees payable to DB were the company to elect to choose another option from another party. I believe the exclusivity agreement with DB expires at the end of this month. I for one would be particularly annoyed if there were to be any further dilution to existing shareholders, if management chose to issue further equity. With all that's happening in the gold space at present, I just don't see the need for it. If there are potential buyers out there, waiting to participate at a discount to the current price, because they believe there will be further equity issued, let them wait, or, pick up stock on market like anybody else. If the project is good enough, they would buy on market anyway, rather than via the back door.


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## beatle (14 September 2010)

Hi Hugh_Jarzz, you make some interesting points regarding the finance, especially regarding DB, and a break fee - has an amount been mentioned?

With regard to your comment about additional equity, I agree that we all would like (and previously expected) the final funding package to be a debt only arrangement, but since warrants were announced as part of the deal with DB I think we now might expect that additional equity will be issued, whether its part of a DB deal or if another alternative funding arrangement is finally put to bed. I have posted previously the impact of various mixes of debt plus equity on share price, and in any instance the outcome would remain above 31 cents per share regardless of how it was structured. Of course the ideal is an all debt arrangement that will result in something like 41cps for RED.

I also refer readers to a general article in a UK publication, posted on another website by Robs12, which refers to the trading experiences of some trader. I could read RED into various of those companies given as examples - the moral of the story was not to try to trade in and out of a selected stock which is being range traded, IF you believe it really has a considerably discounted share price based on fundamental valuation (precisely what RED is doing currently). The link is:
http://brokermandaniel.com/a-must-read-for-every-serious-private-investor/


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## hugh_jarzz (14 September 2010)

No Beatle, not that I'm aware, however, it would be punitive, if my past experience with those slugs in investment banking is any guide. As an aside, I note that CGX released a blurb on the Phillipino Govt's 1bn peso denominated bond issue today...the issue was 13.5x oversubscribed! Just shows that Aquino's efforts to boost investor confidence in the country are bearing fruit. Can't do any harm to management's efforts to renegotiate a better debt raising than the last offensive Ashmore/DB offering. With this sort of demand for debt, why the hell would management even consider further dilution to equity holders?


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## beatle (14 September 2010)

Very interesting comment re the Philippines govt bond issue Hugh_Jarzz, it seems most of the Asian economies including Phils are riding on the crest of a wave  at the moment!
With regard to the DB/Ashmore facility offered to RED, I agree that it was an opportunistic attempt and it may still be taken up. But there remains an alternative possibility of the funds being raised by placement, and if that is done I'm sure the biggest reason will be the matter of time to bed down such a deal compared to the significantly increased time to complete a debt facility with any new group - nny new banking syndicate entering discussions with RED will need to complete its due diligence process, both legal and technical, before it can offer the funds. This would definitely delay the process for a number of months unless the offeror had already done or commenced such due diligence. 
Of course as a shareholder hoping to see maximum cps value be achieved by RED, I would naturally prefer the funding be done as a debt facility. Here's hoping...


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## Moit (15 September 2010)

Hi all, I'm sitting here witnessing first hand the never seen before, record gold highs. Just not long ago gold hit 1273.60 an oz. Approx $28, or 2.3 percent rise. I was in disbelief at 1260 an oz. Surely that must be a good sign of what's to come tomorrow, and there after for the gold stocks and especially RED... What's your new valuation on RED now Beatle ?? Hopefully the gold price stays at it's record highs of 1250 plus an oz, at least until the funding is bedded down, and we start producing... Come on Red...


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## beatle (15 September 2010)

Hi Moit, good to hear from you again. 
I have re-worked the RED valuation model based solely on Siana development (exluding Mapawa and cash in bank at present) for the latest changes in commodity prices and also change the US/Aussie exchange rate. Unfortunately the rising Aussie dollar has a considerable impact (negatively on valuations).
As I am unsure what the final funding package will be I have worked a number of scenarios, assuming:
100% debt (ie US$40 million),  a mix of 50% debt (ie US$20 million) and 50% equity(ie US$20 million), and finally 100% equity (ie US$40 million - I assume equity at a pricing of 15.5 cents per new share).
The new prices input are: Gold price US$1,268, Silver US$20, Exchange rate A$/US$ = 0.94
Ouputs based on a 10% discount rate are:
100% debt  37 cps
50:50 mix 34 cps
100% equity 32 cps
On those scenarios it indicates that Siana is worth no less than 32 cps (at current metal prices and exchange rate) regardless of how the final funding package is done. But it also demonstrates that if the Aussie dollar continues to move up with the increasing gold price the overall impact on Siana valuation remains fairly static (if we get a blow out in gold price with minimal movement in aussie dollar we will get a much greater positive impact on RED!).
Any Mapawa value must also be added to Siana values, and cash is currently around $57 million dollars.
RED is in a holding pattern with current trading, and so far has resisted dropping down towards its cyclical range trading base that many have predicted could take it to 12 cents or so. Investors are waiting for news on the finance. Yesterday (Tues) there appeared to be some weakness in its share price and I was of the opinion that BOTS were artificially keeping it up whilst surreptitiously dropping more shares at 17.5 cents than was being accumulated!
(Sorry to be a negative at the moment but thats how I saw it. By the way I certainly wouldn't suggest selling it down and buying back when it drops because you might lose your shares and never get back in again if there is an announcement, thats my view anyway!).


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## beatle (15 September 2010)

No one likes to wait for news, and investors awaiting RED's announcement of finance and advancement of field activities are probably bored to pieces at present, with only the odd ASX release out. I'm also eagerly awaiting some positive announcement regarding finance, as that holds the key to whether RED will develop Siana in a timely manner, and will obviously impact on share price performance in the short term. RED has impressed with its share price remaining at the top of its recent trading range, and resisting the possibility of dropping towards its range trading lows which have been anticipated by many observers. Especially during this time with minimal news out regarding finance. Of course todays higher US$ gold price assisted it to continue trading close to the top of its recent price cycle during today.

Some posters have voiced concerns regarding the Siana development needing to start soon to ensure that RED can meet its production schedule in April 2011. In particular they have mentioned the fact that if things don't start soon then they will be affected by the coming wet season (the wettest months of the year in the Surigao area, some 50 kms north of Siana, are Nov - Feb with rains then beginning to tail off during March in an average year). In fact that wet season is an issue with development works, and its timing in the coming months will possibly impact on development works although I understand that the current development schedule did provide for the wet season, with the timing as it currently stands. 

AND it should be emphasised that so far all development works have been continuing in line with the development plan, utilising internal RED funds. I understand that provided the final funding package is available during early October the current development plan will not be affected unless other influences (such as weather conditions during the wet season) create more problems than are envisaged and provided for. 

Thus the big development initiatives should be rolled out within the next month with commitments based on the final funding package being made available. If they are not rolled out within the next month then its likely that development will lag some weeks from original commissioning in April 2011.


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## Moit (16 September 2010)

Hi again Beatle. Thankyou for your insight once again. 
I didnt realise the rising aussie doller had such an impact on RED. I try not to delve into that to much, i'll leave that up to you, lol. But thankyou for your valuations. 32 cent sp certainly isnt as good as your previous 38 to 40 sp. But in saying that, when it does get to 32 cents, (which i will still be exstatic about), what's stopping it going to 40 cents ?? 
One thing i did realise, and i agree with you totally, and thats the bots trading on Tuesday. It did seem like someone was trying to keep the sp up. I know we shouldn't complain, but surely the asx should have something in place to stop this. I know with other online trading sights there is a $500 minimum... Some of these trades would be costing more for the actual trade, then what it would to buy the stock. But anyway each to there own, if they can do it, why not i guess.
Im kind of in a biased point of view, lol, that the current RED 5 sp has created a new support and resistance level, Ã¤nd moved into new and permanent territory, with the support being at around the 17 cents.. Resistance being 19.5.. Please anyone correct me if im wrong!! So i really dont think we are ever going to see the old 11 cent sp.. So those that sell out now and try to pick up at cheaper sp, will most definately loose out, as the financing being SOOO close to completion...
Just my biased point of view once again, lol, regaurds Moit, Go RED!!!


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## beatle (16 September 2010)

Hi Moit, good to see your post and sorry to upset your expectations (but I'm sure you would prefer me tell you the true valuation model outcomes rather than just what you might prefer to hear!).

As for that valuation, you do have to keep in mind a few points, as I have quoted things on what I consider to be a conservative basis:
1. The scenario where I assume all equity (ie increasing shares issued), I have assumed that the new shares are issued at 15.5 cents. That may be reasonable. There is no guarantee that all or any new shares will be issued, thus the 32 cents value must be kept in mind with regard to situations that I simply can't predict with no knowledge of what is being discussed by RED and others at present.
2. That DCF valuation covers ONLY Siana development which excludes any input by cash (RED has got something like A$17 million cash in excess of its needs for development of Siana, thus any equity only contribution may be reduced to less than US$40 million requirement (RED previously announced US$40 million in debt only so that may have an impact on how much new equity RED would be prepared to raised to meet future developments at Siana PLUS exploration activities at Mapawa.
3. There is no consideration for value at Mapawa.
4. The DCF value also is a technical estimate of value for RED, but doesn't consider that most gold producing companies tend to trade at a significant premium to that underlying valuation, that ranges from say  tens of % to several hundreds of % above that valuation value. That range relates to perceived prospectivity, likelihood to extend an operations reserves, operating costs attraction, mine life, outlook for gold price, amongst other things. Therefore even if the model value of 32 cps was considered appropriate with max raising of US$40 million by way of equity only, then there will be a premium to that value included into RED's share price once in production one would expect.

As to BOTS, I am yet to decide whether they are a good thing or not, except from my view anyone wanting to put a BOT to work means that at least the trading party is serious and they are surely not there to make a cent or two return. I am comforted by the BOTS working on RED at the moment.

But gee its a frustrating game waiting for RED to get that finance at the moment.


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## beatle (16 September 2010)

I find it interesting to read knocker posters on HC, especially ones that apparently sold out of RED in the past couple of weeks who apparently don't intend buying back into RED but still want to continue to downramp RED! And the very same knocker has accused me, Beatle, if he his misspelling of my pseudonym is one and the same ("Beattle"), of being a consultant to RED to work on overtime to post on HC (read ASF!!!). Lol. (I also find it interesting that sort of post with personal attacks is not moderated!).

One has to wonder why downrampers want to knock a stock, and in this particular case the downramper is very adamant in almost all posts about poor management or words to that effect. Possibly the downrampers in fact want to buy RED at a lower price. And at the moment they must be miffed that so far the share price has resisted going down through its usual range to around the 12 cents mark. This clearly has been a result of the gold price trading higher over the past days, and maybe some insto (maybe Baker Steel?) or similar continuing to buy more shares in RED whenever it threatens to move down below about 18 cents.

In this case it is clear also that the downramper has a very definite set against RED management, and one would wonder if the downramper perhaps is a disenchanted past employee who is not happy with the recent share price success of RED and its move towards being a gold producer in early 2011!

I do want to confirm, and I have stated this before, that I, Beatle, am a shareholder of RED, and have been a shareholder for many years (since about 1997 or 1998 - I don't recall when I began buying shares in Greenstone Resources, as it was called then, but it was around that time). In those early days I did buy and sell the shares and the current holding includes shares I purchased much later, from 2001. But thats still a long time I would say!

Additionally I am not and have never been a consultant or contractor to RED, and have never been an employee nor part of management nor director of RED. Anyone suggesting anything else clearly is wrong and is trying to muddy the waters for their own downramping motivations! I post on RED for 2 reasons:
1. I have a lot of shares in RED, and I want to make sure that information is made available for shareholders or interested investors that is not provided through the company so that RED is properly represented and not mis-represented by downrampers;
2. I have a good knowledge of financial modelling and therefore it enables me to provide definitive valuations on Siana that don't ever get published without allegiances to private broking firms, and my modelling does not pull punches in terms of being biased one way or the other, I quote values as I see them on the spreadsheet.

I would also like to make some clarifications, based on my current knowledge which is a combination of reading all RED reports, my past travel to site some time back, my past discussions with various management:
1. As reported RED management still believe that construction and first gold pour remains on track for April 2011, and to that end major contracts have been awarded to maintain that timeline, with 45% of capital committed, based on internal RED cash available;
2. Major long lead time items such as SAG mill etc have been ordered to arrive well within final construction time requirements;
3. Dewatering process is in train at present, with drilling of dewatering bores;
4. A quarter of the tender packages for the EPCM contract have been put to reputable contractors, the outstanding ones will be issued as necessary, but with the majority of those being issued at the time of the final funding package being finalised;
5. Ground preparation works are underway for the processing facility;
6. Mobilisation to site of the earthworks fleet is arranged;
7. The EPCM processing facility design engineering was 33% complete as reported in the June 2010 quarterly report;
8. Access road works and administration building construction has been begun.

I would also like to confirm that the processing facility is of a standard design for the processing of gold rich ore, and subject to no hold-ups related to weather etc, can be constructed within the timeframe to meet first gold pour in April 2011.


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## mgm1a (17 September 2010)

Beatle - great posts. You know I  really think you should try for the investor relations manager job!

I have had second thoughts around the offer of debt finance. As a believer in market dynamics , i.e the market doing fine on its own, it may be inconceivable that DB/Ashmore had indeed been extortionate - if they did then word would get around and no more business for them in the future? 

With a new legal eagle director and re-reading the ann. I/ we may have jumped the gun - it said no more than it was under review especially around timing of drawdown and the "extent of security". What we may be seeing is some commercial theatre in sweating the lender more, and they would also have Freehills advising before they made then ann. 

I don't subscribe to another cap raise - if they considered it, then they would have made minimal efforts to post some lovely photos and give us a mine construction update, to enhance the share price. But nothing.


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## Rick64 (17 September 2010)

Been following RED for a while, though have not bought yet. See bots busy today can anyone explain what this is and the reason for it?


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## andrewk65 (18 September 2010)

Hi beatle and all. I was wondering where you guys were hanging out. Good to hear some incisive analysis on red progress. Hope you don't mind me dropping in, I think I see why the exodus from hc after the last day or so. I'm not involved in mining but am involved in industrial automation and was of the opinion that a lot of the equipment for this mine would be standard for this type of operation and as such hopefully not subject to commissioning blowouts as can be the case with one off specialized machinery. As such I guess it just depends on the off site progress of the equipment manufacturers as to wether start up dates will be achieved if funding gets sorted. Am I correct in thinking thar red has an all time high of around 25c. Should make technical analysis interesting once we break through there.


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## beatle (18 September 2010)

Hi Mgm1a, and thanks for your comments. I would make the following points with regard to the finance - of course none of us outside of RED really knows what has gone on in the discussions, so what I say may not be based on correct assumptions:
1. On the face of it I believe the original offer by DB/Ashmore did not include warrants. The Asia Presentation referred to 2 facilities (US$25 m + 15m), but had no warrants mentioned. That presentation was on 13 July. The North American presentation, prepared a couple of weeks later also in July, specifically referred to the warrants. 
2. My view is that project finance offers of debt do not have equity sweeteners in them (as opposed to small corporate facilities offered pre BFS being completed). I believe DB crossed the line in seeking such from RED for a major project finance proposal, and I believe that the whole mining industry will now be aware of what was being sought and will be very careful to get into bed with DB. Thats just my view, I have worked in project finance previously (for 7 years, albeit it was pre-GFC), but I have not seen this done before and have not seen it done recently in other companies that I follow.
3. IF the DB/Ashmore offer was something reasonably acceptable I believe RED would have already made a decision to go with the offer by now, but clearly the terms of the offer are not as attractive as would have been presumed from the earlier announcements made by RED.
4. I agree with you, that a debt facility would be far more preferable from a share valuation point of view, and any conventional debt facility would be far preferrable to raising funds through a further equity raising. But as must be the case here, the fine print in the debt offer must also be reasonable and commercially acceptable. The DB/Ashmore offer warrants might actually be a poison pill that enables the bank to hold a controlling stake over RED in the event of a takeover too, which takes RED out of control in any negotiations with the takeover company! Of course, it depends upon how many warrants are being issued.
5. I believe that unless RED is already well advanced with other financial institutions then any alternative take up of debt finance will require a considerable time to complete due diligence and therefore will certainly impinge on development timetables. Thus RED may have to either accept the DB/Ashmore offer (or a negotiated variation of that), or a more vanilla equity raising.
I hope that RED is very much advanced with all these discussions, as clearly we need to have an announcement of such in the next couple of weeks to ensure the development timetable is not affected.

Hi Rick64. As I have mentioned earlier, I'm not really aware of the intentions of the BOTS, other than the general understanding that it allows a party to constantly make small trades at a general level. I don't believe that really affects the trading much, but gives me more confidence that at least these are bigger traders either getting in or out, and with the fact that Baker Steel is just getting in my impression is that the BOTS are working for the good of a higher share price. But thats just a biased opinion.

Hi Andrewk65. Good to see your post. In fact I was a HC poster for a long time, but I got banned as a result of someone accusing me of having 2 different identities. (It was someone on another thread, not the RED threads I believe and I think it was done as I was telling too many hard truths about a company! - thats my view anyway). I have found ASF to be a very good website for posting, with much less emotionally charged posts, and the website allows me to post what I consider to be relevant to the discussion about RED without the constant intervention of moderators (who have a role and I respect that role, whether it be HC or ASF). I try to ensure my posts are correct, certainly not aimed to be just a ramp (although I am very much biased with seeing RED go up of course, as I have lots of RED shares!).

Now about your query on the processing facility. Well I did make comment that the processing facility was standard for gold ores. But I don't want to give you the impression that its similar to a stock standard process that might go into, say a coffee machine etc. 
What I mean by it being standard, is that the Siana ore has metallurgical characteristics not dissimilar to many others (although there is some element of refractory gold as we know the recovery is around 85% for open pit and 87% for underground ore). Those particular metallurgical characteristics have been determined based on considerable representative sampling of past diamond holes, undertaken by independent labs (AMMTEC, Orway, Amdel etc) supervised by an independent metallurgical group. That procedure is the norm for the gold industry. 

Having determined what those metallurgical characteristics, RED and its consultants, have determined a processing route that entails crushing, SAG milling, carbon in leach (cyanide) processing, standard electrowinning etc. (There is also an indication that the underground ore may have potential for a zinc concentrate, and subject to zinc price at the time RED may develop a separate floatation circuit to recover a zinc concentrate in year 5 or so).

The appointed EPCM engineering firm, TWP, is overseeing the development of a design that encompasses the specific metallurgical inputs for Siana, plus the designated throughput rate. 
Thus the processing facility will be designed specifically for the requirements of Siana, but with the standard processing flowsheet of crushing and grinding, cyanidation in tanks with activated carbon (to grab the gold), followed by standard elution of gold and electrowinning circuits. This requires a fair degree of engineering designwork, and the preparation of many different tender packages covering civils, mechanical, electrical, chemical, etc engineering for sub-contractors etc. The plant also has to be designed to accomodate water balance, etc for a maximum 1 million tpa throughput rate. But throughput rate varies from year to year according to the different hardness of rock, (being initially softer oxide from open pit to harder underground rock in year 4). 

From this you may realise that it is still a considerable number of issue to develop even a standard gold treatment facility, but I can assure you that most processing facilities of this size can be completed within a timeframe of around 8 months (including design) and its the long lead time items, such as SAG mill that tend to rule the final commissioning of the project. 

I have pointed out though, that there are many aspects that will need to be started soon to ensure that April gold pour is met, so I believe that funding will have to be completed within the next few weeks to ensure the continuity of the program can be achieved. So far RED has managed to continue to work from internal cash but soon it must have the funding in place to make the commitments for outstanding requirements.

Even if RED was delayed a month or so, from my point of view I am not fussed, but its very important that RED can deliver within a reasonable timeframe, to retain the confidence of its shareholders and investors in the market place.

I do believe that some of the posters on HC at present are quite mischievous, and I don't really know if maybe they are disenchanted former employees of RED, or perhaps are representing investors who are seeking to hold down RED share price to secure a financially more attractive deal to possible takeover parties, or are just frustrated shareholders (but I doubt the latter!). Who knows, but one thing is for sure, its important to make proper representation to the market, and I'm certainly very concerned with miss-information that is a negative for RED investment, far more than it deserves.


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## anderbond (20 September 2010)

G'day Beatle, once again you have posted very informative comments. Should be required reading for all interested REDers. I don't have anything particularly factual so please forgive my general commentary.It is not much longer before we should have a better idea of what will happen with the finance package. If management decides to push ahead with things as they stand, we may see a few holders head for the exits, but in my opinion if management decides to go with the package as it stands, then I for one will respect their judgement. We do know that several months ago it was mentioned in a report by CJ that a number of unsolicited offers of finance had come in, so I feel comfortable that management will find an appropriate way forward. I am much more interested in progress with Siana, and of course the results of preliminary drilling at Mapawa, as imo these will provide more stimulus to the SP in due course. I too feel the frustration of the apparent recent flattening in the SP, but as there is so much more to come it is really just a waiting period. Also we need to recognise that it seems that a new resistance base has been found as someone else pointed out. I also respect the cornerstone nature of Mathew's holdings, and the more recent topup, plus the Merrill/BOA holdings(whoever is the real buyer) plus the more recent Baker Steel buyup. Goodness me...........whatever else could we all wish for? Here we have a company in which a while back most of us were very keen to see institutional interest occur, and now we have it some holders are still not happy. As Beatle says, some people are very mischievous indeed! So although it has been a long haul, especially for holders like Beatle ( and to a lesser extent myself) I remain calm awaiting further news. AB


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## ParleVouFrancois (20 September 2010)

Mr Beatle I think you don't get this enough, but thanks for providing such in depth infomation on RED. You're one of the reasons that I bought shares at $0.125 a while back when everyone was panicking and now I'm sitting on a 36% profit in under 2 months . 

So yeah, not really much content in this post but just to express my thanks for providing good coverage and detailed analysis of the ongoing development of RED.

Onwards and upwards I say!


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## beatle (21 September 2010)

To Anderbond and ParleVousFrancois I'm most appreciative of your comments, and in fact I have found it a pleasure to post and hopefully spread the word (and facts) about RED. I have actually found investing in RED to be a test of patience over the years, but I must say that until we had a definitive BFS I was not always a long time holder. I would buy and then get frustrated with the delays and sell (net I would say I am slightly ahead), but since getting the BFS have been a longer term holder. 

I agree with you Anderbond, that I would also accept the original DB offer (but not aware of the number and terms of the warrants) although I am of the view its been an opportunistic offer by DB. I do not like the idea of continuing to raise money in placements ad infinitum, but in the absence of a better offer would accept that too since on a cents per share basis, it will still make money for RED. But I want them hurry up with it so that we can be assured that they can meet the timeframe, or close to it, by April. In that regard I have an understanding that the mine opening is expected by May 2011 at this stage (unless there are some unforseen holdups). Just noting that a mine opening must be preceded by successful commissioning so I am sure at the moment management still believe they can achieve the April deadline for mine first gold pour.

I am surprised that RED's share price has been able to find such strong support at 17 cents as you point out Anderbond, and I assume its one of the stronger insto's, probably Baker Steel. That is a good sign as mopping up the weaker holders at this price means we are sure to get a good kick IMO when the finance is finally bedded down and announced. Hopefully we will see that in the coming couple of weeks!

ParleVousFrancois, I'm glad to hear of your current investment, but I believe you have seen nothing yet, and thats going to be the most exciting part for me personally, to finally see a much better share price within a short time frame. Of course expecting and talking that up means there is possibly going to be some who are waiting for the jump up to exit soon, but maybe it won't be directly up, there might be some fits and starts along the way - there has to be some holding at various levels and retracements to ensure longer term support for the ultimate building up of the share price.


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## andrewk65 (21 September 2010)

Hi again all.
Thanks for the reply before beatle. Just wondered if anyone can clarify for me exactly what is involved in 
The warrants part of the finance package proposed by db. Does that mean that red must issue upon request more shares at a preset price? Pardon my ignorance but thus seems to be one of the issues that came from left field and I would like to understand exactly what it entails. Thanks in advance.


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## beatle (22 September 2010)

Hi Andrewk65, regarding the proposed warrants, which of course RED has yet to agree to: - and of course without us knowing all the details and terms etc its not possible to know the exact arrangements proposed by DB. But as you have described them, a warrant gives the holder the right to a number of shares previously agreed to at some pre-set price (and in this case my presumption is that they have been proposed by DB (on the surface anyways!) to offset principle repayment of the debt plus to provide some level of security (or collateral) over the company (in the event of a default). (Another way to rationalise getting more than the usual bank fees for provision of debt!).  In simple terms its similar to an option, but there are some subtle differences and I have not had any past experience with their use. It ends up being a likely increase in share capital although I understand it might be possible for RED to buy back the warrants and have them cancelled (again as I say depending upon the specific terms of the warrants) in order to restrict further issuance of equity (but of course that involves more costs too). 
I would like to know how many warrants and over how many shares those warrants to be issued - if its a very high number it has the potential to be a prime asset in the event of a takeover play!

RED seems to be holding up well with no news dragging on (as we have been expecting), and that must be a positive for its future share price once we are off to the races with funding in place!


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## andrewk65 (22 September 2010)

Thanks beatle. As you say it's hard to know what to think without all the terms and conditions. Does seem like it would defeat the point though as they already issued extra shares to raise capital and It seems that this part of the finance was supposed to be debt not equity. Oh well, I guess we just wait.


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## Moit (22 September 2010)

Hi all, hi Beatle. Beatle and Anderbond i would also like to personally thank you both for your knowledge, experience and respect you have for RED... Your intelligence is truely welcomed through your posts and to the shareholders that follow RED 5. I for one am so greatful we have people like you to share your insight and knowledge. Thanks guys and dont ever stop posting as i check asf everyday in order to learn more and broarden my own intelligence.

Beatle please dont worry if you throw in a bit of negativity into your posts. I know your only speaking the truth and being honest and thats what we'd all prefer. I respect that...

What i am wondering if there is going to be a mad scramble for RED shares in the next week or two, to pick up them last minute shares at a really cheap price before RED gets that ann out. I know i am thinking of buying some more for my kids as im sure the returns are far going to exceed the 5-6% the banks pay...

Not long now guys, come on RED


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## beatle (22 September 2010)

Hi Moit, and as I've mentioned before, its a pleasure to post on the RED threads of ASF. I enjoy the mental stimulation and to be able to keep in touch with like-minded investors (whether they are buyers, sellers or just plain interested) is not an issue for me (unless they are trying to spread mis-information purposely which I consider to be against the spirit of the threads for RED).

As for your question about future movements in RED, post any announcement on finance etc:
Whereas personally I believe that its almost a given that the funding will occur and will result in a re-rating upwards, I do want to temper that view somewhat by stating the obvious - that the future course of RED gaining the final funding required and resultant share price remains speculative. 

And the big issues that remain include RED getting a funding package that RED management considers acceptable (I rate that likelihood as being 90% probable since RED has already got an offer on the table from DB/Ashmore, albeit that offer seems to have some snags in it with regard to the warrants and timeframes for providing funds based on certain development achievements being made), and at the very worst an all-equity offer (which is value accretionary ie above 31 cps at current gold price) being made around 15.5 cents (relatively conservative I would say) is possible as an alternative (and hopefully some other offers being more share value accretionary than that!).

The movement in the gold price has been almost neutral with the effects of an increasing aussie dollar almost completely removing the benefits of the gold price, although since most of the capex items are priced in US dollars, RED certainly would be able to benefit in a rising aussie dollar for outstanding capex - currently at 95.5 US cents per aussie dollar. However, there always remains a threat that the gold price could drop appreciably, and notwithstanding the aussie dollar likely to drop commensurately with that, its likely to have an overall negative impact on any gold related explorer/developer/producer. So be aware that whilst RED has not announced its funding, the threat of a falling gold price could impact negatively on RED share price.

As to when the RED share price might start to re-rate in line with valuations of Siana worth when the funding package is announced (if its announced of course!), well that is pure speculation, but its time bound (again affected by movements in gold price if it re-rates later and not sooner). But knowing its likely gold production commences around April 2011, we won't have long to wait for RED to re-rate, but how fast and how far it moves is anybodies guess. And perhaps there is some pent-up demand for current holders to off-load stock once the funding is announced and the expectation of a rising share price probably will have some counter-balancing affect on its rate of movement upwards. (I still understand that there is a possibility of a Melb based insto that wants in only once funding is achieved and that might help to take out any loose holders of stock - I understand that if the insto wants in, it will take around 5 - 6% of stock so that equates to no less than about 50 million shares).

I hope that gives you some more insight to how things might develop, but bearing in mind that who knows what other influences may come to bear in coming weeks/months. 

I would like to think that Mapawa results also start to confirm the ongoing likelihood of a major porphyry gold deposit being developed, and that could open up the interest from a major in a completely different direction, with a much greater share value than Siana can provide!


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## beatle (23 September 2010)

Impact of Price of Gold

Although we have had a considerable move up in POG over the past week, reaching a new record high to US$1,296 over night, the aussie exchange rate has continued to keep abreast of that movement, also with a high overnight breaching US$0.96.

The resulting impact of those factors has kept the valuation price of RED within a relatively tight range, regardless of various mixes of debt plus equity. If we assume its a standard debt facility for the final funding package (probably unlikely) then it amounts to 38 cps, and for a straight equity deal (conservatively priced at 15.5 cents) it amounts to 32.5 cps.

BUT there is one factor that provides benefit to RED - its outstanding balance of capex is priced in US$, therefore with an appreciating A$, RED will save A$ in meeting the outstanding costs to build Siana. Hopefully the financing can be bedded down in the next couple of weeks and that the exchange rate remains at these high levels, thus saving perhaps 6% of its outstanding balance in terms of the exchange rate, which could equate to around A$1.5 million on the outstanding capex requirements.

But gee its frustrating waiting for the all important financing announcement!


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## beatle (24 September 2010)

We are now in the last week of September, and hopefully we will see an announcement regarding funding within the next couple of weeks. In the meantime RED share trading has dried up a lot as sellers have become less reckless with dropping shares at this critical time. I personally would not take the risk to drop shares with a view to buy them back later at a lower price, as timing now is very important and I believe it must be just around the corner!

I would like some reassurance from RED management that the development remains on track as previously indicated with first gold pour in April 2011, with internal funds being used in the interim to maintain the development schedule (assumedly that remains the case!).


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## desjosie (24 September 2010)

Am I right in thinking that prior to any announcement on funding a Trading halt will occur.. sorry for my uneducational knowledge on this..


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## KurwaJegoMac (24 September 2010)

desjosie said:


> Am I right in thinking that prior to any announcement on funding a Trading halt will occur.. sorry for my uneducational knowledge on this..




No need to apologise! We're all learning every day 

A trading halt will occur whenever significant news is set to be released which could effect the Share Price or outlook/direction/etc of the company. In the case of funding, this is almost always preceded by a trading halt. But it's not always easy to say ahead of time - if it's a perceived minor news update or the market was informed of the information ahead of time they'll just release the information to market without a trading halt.


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## beatle (24 September 2010)

If I can make a slight variation of KurwaJegoMac's post re a Trading Halt: 

A TH is often used for 2 reasons - 1) when management is concerned that news about a market sensitive issue or announcement is likely to become public knowledge ahead of such a release. 2) when management want to highlight a forthcoming announcement (again using the guise that they are concerned about it leaking out ahead of the announcement, whether that is likely or not - the cynic in me!).

RED's past record is that they have called for a TH when its been a very significant announcement coming regarding large placements or finance - Oct/Nov 2007 (for the first big placement of $35 million at 10 cents), and Dec 2009 (A$45 million placement at 15.5 cents plus project finance mandate to Deutsche Bank/Ashmore for US$40 million).

Here's hoping for a TH very soon....


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## Moit (24 September 2010)

Hi everyone, hi Beatle. Sorry i havn't yet got back to you Beatle. I did after work yesterday morning, i hit submit and lost it. I wasn't writing again. I believe that's happened to you once before, lol.

In reply to your post and in a round about way, i was interested in what you said about investors/traders wanting to off load their shares once funding had been announced, which in-tern could effect the re-rating of RED. Then you mentioned about the Melbourne based insto (which you previously stated, but forgotten by some), that wants in once funding is bedded down, which will hopefully counter act the share price with the sellers wanting out. 5% or 50 odd million shares shouldn't vanish to quickly, one would imagine. Very intruiging. 

Beatle ivÃ© noticed alot of investors have placed their bids in, between 12 and 15.5 cents, in about 1 to 1.5 million $ lots, every .05 cents. I really do believe they will miss out and wont get the chance and will be scrambling back in next week to pick up last minute shares at a very cheap price, which will only drive the sp up again. Just my point of view of course...

In regaurds to the current topic, the end of September and the possibility of a trading halt, BRING IT ON !!!


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## beatle (25 September 2010)

Hi Moit and all, (there's no problem with your delay in posting, we are all friends here!). At the moment with the continuing delay in announcements and action on the positive side for RED I find posting on ASF about RED being my only way to counter my pent up anticipation of future price action! Every day is a day closer to that announcement and a day closer to the first gold pour, thats how I see it! (Excuse my biased opinion, lol).

Regarding your observation of buyers for RED between 12 and 15.5 cents, I'm not sure if there are individual orders over 1 million shares at any of those levels. I have checked since you referred to it (but after close of trade so any bids may have been pulled therefore I can't see them!), but from my observations whilst there are multiple bidders at each of those levels aggregating to the numbers you refer to, most individual bidders are below 200,000 units each (except at 12 cents where there is 1 bid of 600,000 shares). 

I do suggest also, that you must beware the bids and offers immediately below or above traded price as there can be all sorts of games being played by traders, including dummy orders that mysteriously come and go depending on the motivations of market players! And with the use of BOTS these days who really knows whats going on other than each individual putting in place these orders. But what I would say in RED's favour, is that the level of trading activity and overall liquidity has increased more than 10 fold nowadays (even now on days of relatively inaction) compared to some years ago when it could possibly not trade for many days, sometimes weeks! (Then Siana was not a completed feasibility study and certainly didn't have the following that it has enjoyed nowadays).

My hope is for RED management to quickly complete the outstanding issue of finance and put out an announcement to that effect, confirming that outstanding project contracts as part of construction have continued to be let, with development schedule on track as previously announced. That should be the filip for the last remaining doubters about Siana ever producing gold again to be removed. And the selling which has almost stopped will abate altogether - at the moment it seems technical chartists are trading the stock assuming it must drop to around 15.5 cents to achieve the pullback based on charts before resuming its next move through 19.5 cents.  

I would also like to think that RED management decide to put in place some hedging, of US$ gold (not necessarily the A$ currency leg!), in the event that gold comes off in the following weeks - at the end of the day a hedge is only an opportunity lost, not a loss in money, if put at these high levels where gold can be easily delivered against such contracts. My feeling is that gold is now reaching a level that could be akin to the oil price at US$147/barrel a couple of years ago, and we should take advantage of that high price now. I don't believe that the A$ will get much stronger as well, thus the benefits of not putting in place currency. (Of course financial institutions may not be prepared to allow RED put in place US gold without A$ currency offsets).


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## Moit (25 September 2010)

Hi Beatle, in regards to what i said in yesterdays post. What i meant to say is, there were over 1 million units every half a cent between 12 and 15.5 cents. There may have been 5 to 20 people wanting to buy each million, not necessarily 1 person to 1 million units. But some where pulled at the closing bell. It just goes to show though, that there is still people out there wanting to pick RED shares up at a cheap rate. Sorry if i miss informed anyone... 

It was a great night on the dow last night, hopefully a good day Monday for Australia and especially for RED. Unless of course we see a trading halt Monday, which is quite possible. Each day is nearing to that all important announcement we've all been waiting for. Very exciting times. Well I'm going to enjoy my weekend, have a good one everyone. GO RED AND GO THE TIGERS !!!


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## beatle (26 September 2010)

Hi Moit, and my apologies for not following your line of discussion with regard to the aggregate buys for RED which I agree with you add a great deal of support for RED. And whilst some will argue that RED has not had great price growth over the past couple of years (depending upon what time of the cycle you bought into it!) RED has completely changed as a company backed by many more shareholders, both big and small, insto/fund/retail, and of course the market cap has now got the size to seen as a serious gold company on the verge of significant gold production. Its profile now, while still being seen as a spec due to it not yet confirming the last leg of funding for Siana development, has grown considerably over the years. 

In 12 months time, if we move ahead of our current frustrating period, will see RED on the ramp up to 100,000 ozs of gold production from Siana alone, and with Mapawa much more defined as to whether it will add considerably to the gold inventory. If it shapes up to the indications from drilling and trenching and geophysical information to date, we are looking at a porphyry gold project with copper credits, that is likely to be at least 100 million tonnes averaging around 1 g/t Au, equating to something like 3.2 million contained ozs gold!

And subject to the gold price not dropping below around US$1,000/ozs with that projection for Siana and Mapawa I can see RED being completely re-valued, way above the indicated ca. 38 cps that Siana promises for RED, and moving towards $1.00 per share. That is the longer term outlook I remain confident and insistent that we should be aiming for!

As you point out Moit, with the Dow up again and gold close to its record close overnight I can see RED having a bumper of a week IF it were to announce the funding package this week (but I think we may have to be patient for at least another week, unfortunately! - of course reassurance of development works remaining on track for Siana would be a good secondary announcement and comfort for us anticipating RED being in production in the first half of 2011).


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## anderbond (27 September 2010)

Beatle and others, What a hard day today has been! A real test of staying power for all holders. Hard to fathom what sentiment change will push the SP on when it has been such a strong day generally. Just have to stay calm and focus on the fundamentals, as eventually they will prevail. AB


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## Moit (27 September 2010)

Hi Beatle, Anderbond an others. Anderbond it was a shock of a day. Markets were strong, but RED'S volume just wasn't there. Nobody wants to pay for it (even though at a cheap price) and the sellers certainly aren't giving there shares away. I was a little surprised, but at least we didn't loose any ground, which could have happened...

Beatle i got a little excited when you mentioned RED'S sp could be in for a true re-rating well beyond the indicated 38 cents, if Mapawa were to follow in Siana's footsteps of course. Ive had an image and set price in my head since becoming a RED shareholder, and its always been $1.00. I'm pretty sure i wouldn't get rid of RED until it was at least that, unless my circumstances changed. It wouldn't particularly bother me if it were to take 5 to 10 years to get there, cause with each little announcement, financing, first gold pour, porphyry discoveries, yearly profits etc, it's all going to add that little bit more to the sp, and eventually we will see that re-rating. Ive never sold a RED share yet, only bought more, and probably continue too as it is also my little gold mine...


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## beatle (28 September 2010)

Hi Moit, good to see your comments and sentiments, sounds like you are acting similar to me, RED being your own little gold mine!
With regard to the price target of $1.00: My view is that the share price to 38 cps based on Siana has been a lot of hard work, much frustration and waiting, and for me its been since they first inherited in 2001. So what do they say, the first million is the hardest? So i believe that is same for RED. I believe you won't have to wait 5 or 10 years for that movement towards $1.00 IF Mapawa continues down the path that is being indicated by the drilling and geophysical work so far. My thought is that its going to either be proven to be a biggy or not within the next 12 months, and therefore that is the time of the true value adding, if its going to happen! Thus within 12 months, IF Mapawa shows its form the way we are hoping, then we will see RED move towards $1.00, possibly beyond, and each days share price movements will not be the odd 0.5 cent increment, it will be some days of many cents movement, then we will look back on these frustrating days and say why did it have to be so hard earlier on! (Thats my view anyway!).

Come on RED, its about time to wake up...


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## beatle (28 September 2010)

Hi Anderbond, sorry I failed to see and therefore acknowledge your post until this morning. My sentiments are similar to yours, and its been what we've been trying to do for a long time now, to focus on the fundamentals realising that ultimately it will bear fruit.
I am very much thinking that your (hopefully informed) source who suggested that RED is waiting out an exclusivity period till the end of September with DB, is on the money, and that soon after that we should hear from RED. Since this Friday is the beginning of October maybe we won't have to wait much longer now for that confirmation, whether it will be at the end of this week or perhaps more likely at the beginning of next week! If that is the case, then we can assume that the DB/Ashmore offer is now unlikely to be the final funding means to development, and will be replaced with another offer - with the duration of the time that has lapsed from 5 August when that offer was announced to the market and now, its most likely that is the case.
It will be an exciting period ahead for RED, and I guess the other thing will be that if the gold market or general stockmarket weakens how will that impact on RED share price. I would hasten to add that in A$ terms the gold price has not really strenghtened much in past weeks due to the rising A$, so any drop in US$ gold price might be accompanied by a similar drop in A$, thus softening the impact on Australian gold companies with Australian shareholders.


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## desjosie (28 September 2010)

Beatle,Moit and Anderbond.. Your comments and sentiments in regards to Red are very informative and infectious...  I (along with you) await news from them with a feeling of good times to come. (SP) However the silence from them in regards to funding is deafening. 
Beatle your comments on SP going to $1.00 puts a spring in my step. My question to be put to all, does anyone sees Red emulating Medusa and heading to the $4.00 plus mark within the 10 -11 years?
Or is that a bit fortuitist on my part..


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## beatle (28 September 2010)

Hi Desjosie, and thanks for the comments.

With regard to your question about RED emulating MML and moving towards $4.00 (gee some people aren't satisfied, haha!). Well unfortunately it works on market cap rather than share price (and RED has many more shares on issue compared to MML - currently 5.2 times as many. 

MML I believe is a very good comparison with RED potential however, esp ahead of RED commencing production, as it has so many aspects in common, such as country of operations, operating in a similar historical mining district something like 150 kms to the south along the Philippines Fault line, geological prospectivity etc. With respect to that geological prospectivity, its at least part of the reason why MML enjoys a premium over its fundamental valuation (and similarly to other gold producing companies).

But if you look at MML market cap at present (ie simply the number of shares x share price - I will not bother looking at in the money options etc as they are not so relevant, nor worry about cash at bank - MML actually has got a stack of that too!), MML market cap = A$880 million. This compares to RED market cap at present of A$161 million. IF RED were in production, with similar gold production you could expect RED to move TOWARDS MML market cap, ie 880/161 = 5.46 times the current RED share price, ie 5.46 x 16.5 cents = 90 cents per share!!!

BUT, and its a big but!, MML has got a stack of cash in bank (around US$55 million) , it has been a VERY low cost producer at its underground gold operations even though it has only recently started to increase gold production appreciably. And it appears that MML will be able to continue those underground cheap operations going for quite a while - the reserve life is only 5 years or so, but in underground narrow veined mining its hard to categorise gold resources into reserves so how much mine life ahead is a bit of a guess really, whether its mine life is 5 years or more.
Once MML completes the cheap mining then it will be much harder to achieve (and unlikely to achieve) continuing low cost operations, but its a hard question to ask.
Importantly MML has been very well managed, has got the runs on the board and the ear to many major US insto's. Its marketing has been matched by meeting targets in production to date, so its one step ahead of RED!

By comparison, RED has yet to do the hard yards of confirming its ability to turn the feasibility study into production based on the indicated reasonably low cost, long life mine, both great pluses with Siana, but RED management has yet to prove its up to the  task, as it has been a frustrating ride so far. RED must turnaround and prove it can meet timeframes and budgets promised, unlike some of the past drawn out dramas. To its advantage though, Mapawa is shaping up as a potential elephant, which makes me very confident that the future outlook for RED should be much better once its in production and can produce cheap ounces, as a means to fully evaluate Mapawa. And remember, Mapawa refers to one prospect so far, at LSY, whereas there is potential that the entire MPSA may hold other porphyry prospects, and additionally the Siana MPSA has demonstrated that it also holds considerable potential at porphyry prospects, such as Madja etc! They have not been pursued other than some geophysics and rudimentary drilling or trenching due to the priority of developing Siana open pit mine first. 

I can still see RED achieving a price moving towards $1.00 within the next 12 months provided gold doesn't fall out of bed completely, but for it to go to $4.00 is probably unlikely unless Mapawa (and other porphry prospects) come up with the goods.


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## andrewk65 (28 September 2010)

Hi all. Just wondered if anyone has any idea weather red have any other finance options on the board or are they still exclusively negotiating with db. Someone stated they spoke to the board a little while back and the terms with db were the hold up, but surely if they are commuted to exclusive negotiations with db why would db change the terns. Surely red are over a barrel and it's take it or leave it. The only good thing is at least the finance is definitely available.


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## mgm1a (29 September 2010)

Hi all, Beatle more great posts...i think your calling is definitely in Investor Relations! 
Here's a post I made somewhere else

Based on Ann Report 2010 and yesterday's price:
Cash 5.9c
Mine 4.1c
Gold 6c, which on 849k is $AUD71 per oz
Total 16c

The $71 is not outrageous, eh? and compares with a stat i saw on replacing gold reserves of $80something. The more usual back of envelope stat. is EV/resource which for RED is $A184/oz., I don't have ready comparisons but West Africa gold explorers av. is $88/oz

The major thing from the fin. stmts is the reclassifying from Exploration and Evaluation expenditure to the category Mine Development. The company is acknowledging its move to producer status.

What i have always liked about RED balance sheet is the fact that the (negative) retained earnings is only $16m after 14 years! ..a little over $1m a year as costs of running the company to write off is very good compared with most balance sheets you see, and a testament to consistent good governance over a very long time. I like companies which carefully look after investor funds.

IMO, the SP has small downside risk (also based on instos paying 15.5 in cap raise) and yes 10c of the price is hard asset value. As we move to production Mr Market will assess SP to include both NAV and cashflow generation capacity. 

Readers also need to remember in assessing value that gold mines aren't easy to find and take a long time to develop - this one has taken 14 years - any potential buyer would love to pay to eliminate the time!! Looking good.


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## beatle (29 September 2010)

Hi All, and good to see some other posters on the RED thread!

Andrew: Anderbond has informed us (through a 3rd party), of RED having been tied to an exclusivity to DB until end of Sept (that must end tomorrow, being 30th I HOPE!!!). I would imagine that DB doesn't have to change the terms but once the exclusivity is over then DB doesn't have RED over a barrel any more, so they lose out and I'm sure their standing in the industry will have been served a bitter pill also! The issue may have been their capacity to deliver due to credit committee requirements and inflexibility, which is a test of a banks real capacity to be in the project finance industry! So its not a smart longer term commercial play if they don't also remain flexible with the terms and conditions. Of course we outsiders will never know why RED decided to appoint an exclusive mandate with DB in the first place, I really can't fathom it since the Chairman has been involved with many other financings in recent years and should've had more experience to "trust" a bank with an exclusive mandate! I know prior to appointing DB RED had many different options, not just equity but also other pre-pay gold loan proposals etc. Maybe they have come back on the drawing board as well.

Therefore, as you correctly state, RED does have many other options, and I expect that if the exclusivity does in fact end in next days then its most likely we will see an announcement out regarding a preferred alternative soon. Thats possibly why RED was generally trading up yesterday, although as YuYu noted elsewhere, after trading up for most of the day, it took a few shares at 16 cents at the close to give the appearance that RED was still going down! 

Andrew, if you read the Financial Accounts, RED refer to significant events in the past year (page 2) and it doesn't refer to DB at all, it says "A banking group was awarded the mandate to provide a senior secured debt financing package for the development of the Siana project, subject to normal due diligence and credit approval processes." That to me suggests that RED have decided to go elsewhere! (Just me reading between the lines I admit).

Mgm1a, I do hope you agree that whilst I post positive aspects of RED, in fact I think that my comments remain factual with respect to keeping readers informed and being relatively balanced? And you will be the first one to acknowledge the valuations are correct since you also model RED (albeit using a 15% discount rate I gather?). With regard to your last comparative analysis statistics I'm not able to follow your line of reasoning with the 

"Cash 5.9c
Mine 4.1c
Gold 6c, which on 849k is $AUD71 per oz
Total 16c"

Can you explain it more fully please. As you may also realise, my main skill is technical, not accounting (I presume that is your forte!), thus I don't take so much from the historical costs as you have done, my line of reasoning is that most of the sunk costs do not actually mean much for future development, although I agree it does demonstrate cost control historically is a positive element. (By the way Siana has been on RED books since 2001 so its been developing for the past 9 looooonnngg years, not 14 years, most of their early exploration work relates to Australian, esp WA exploration). I have never doubted RED management in terms of being careful with their past exploration expenditures relative to peers, but more critical of some of their priorities and decisions and quoted timeframes for delivery of critical elements of the projects.

I would also like to make the following comment, that is a danger when comparing different companies for EV. I am always concerned when analysts use Inferred Resources, with no reserve information being available (as they are pre completed feasibility study). An Inferred Resource means different things to different resource practitioners, bearing in mind that whilst some use a fairly objective basis for their assessment its still dependent on continuity of far flung data points, and others are less strict, and so the estimation can be frought with errors for many different reasons. In the case of RED, the resources have been defined on an objective basis (Cube Consulting is a very good resource practitioning consultant), but more importantly have been then had the rigours of a 3D economic whittle assessment to come up with reserves (ie no included Inferred Resources in the reserves) and all other factors such as metallurgy etc to contend with. 
I suggest that the best way to compare such to other companies is to compare it with companies only having reserves, applying a DCF, and that is when RED comes out as a very cheap gold explorer/developer/producer in the making! Those Inferred Resources (and in fact even other categories of resources, Indicated and Measured) may never come to anything if they are too deep or whatever, that is not the case with RED, they also have Inferreds sitting within the Reserve areas that will be subject to mining, esp in the underground section and therefore if they exist will likely come into reserve inventory during mining drillouts.


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## mgm1a (29 September 2010)

beatle
I have reduced the cash on hand and mine capital costs to date to a per share value. These 5.9+4.1 both add to 10c, which is the net equity reduced to a share value, i.e. net tangible assets. 

Since the SP is 16c then the difference is the value, simplistically, of the gold in the ground.

My forte is not the finer points of resources and reserves, but it seems to me any investor can get get cash, plant and mine expenditure for cost...but to get gold seems to be ridiculously cheap at $A71 for something that is worth US1300.

The current POG is indication itself of demand and an indictment on the general state of the global economy. The reason the instos love this sort of company is that to get, say, a 1moz gold mine underway they would have to invest $A71M over a long period, send a prospector off on his way and wait and watch with all that heart ache. or.. . they could just get one off the shelf.  Given also there is a long term decline in gold reserve replacement i can't see any major drop in value of gold miners for long time to come.


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## anderbond (29 September 2010)

Hi Beatle and other RED investors, I have left a message on CJ's mobile asking if there is an expected announcement or any update on the finance package due soon. AB


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## Moit (29 September 2010)

Thanks Anderbond, it is very nerve racking, it's getting extremely frustrating...


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## beatle (29 September 2010)

THanks Mgm1a, most appreciative of your explanation and logic. I don't have issue with your logic and I understand that is why some of the bigger state owned chinese companies are looking at gold resources in order to get a hold on considerable gold inventory, in order to increase treasury holdings with a diversified portfolio outside of the usual investments they have held in US government bonds and other US$ investments etc. And gold in the ground (IF its there) is a much cheaper option than buying big in the physical gold market (cf Indian Central Bank purchase of 200 tonnes of gold bullion in October 2009 at around US$1,160).

I do make the point though that its all a matter of whether the gold is truly there to be gotten in the first place, that is why I refer to the resource category (ie its not going to be A$71 per ounce if all those ounces are not there, but in the case of RED, being predominantly Indicated Resources (==> Probable Reserves) there is more likelihood compared to some company with quoted Inferred Resources (which don't fit into any reserve category until upgraded to confirm continuity of those resources).

Anderbond, I have a sneaking suspicion you will get a reply to your phone message once the announcement is made and not before, lol!

Moit, I agree with you that is awfully frustrating, but having lived the dream now for such a long time I remain completely confident it will happen, based on the fundamental evidence, and Mgm1a's logical explanation above is testimony as to why it WILL happen! I don't actually feel it being nerve-wracking, just frustrating! And of course it means we have to follow the share prices like a jockey riding a horse, unless you can take Petard's advice to not look, lol!


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## desjosie (29 September 2010)

beatle said:


> we have to follow the share prices like a jockey riding a horse.




Worst part is.. some are probably riding this horse bareback and the pain is too much to handle and jump off mid stride..


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## anderbond (29 September 2010)

Beatle, you might be correct but if so then that should mean we will get an announcement very very soon as I expect CJ will return my call when time permits. AB.


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## andrewk65 (29 September 2010)

Hi beatle and anderbond. 
Thanks for the reply re the possible end of exclusive period, I noticed it was mentioned in some earlier posts, I should have looked closer. Anderbond hope you don't mind me repeating the possibility of end of exclusivity with db on hc, not sure what the correct protocol is for these things but thought that might be of great interest to others. Seems like this thread is certainly more on the pulse if the issue anyway. Thanks for your info, I'm hoping this turns out to be a life changer ( hopefully in a good way)


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## beatle (29 September 2010)

Anderbond, I have a feeling based on the tea leaves at the bottom of my cup that its gonna be some time early next week that you will get a reply from CJ, and its going to be preceded by a message to us ALL! Thats just in my tea cup of course, but maybe its cos I've been riding RED bareback just as Desjosie has suggested and its unsettled my reading of the tea leaves!

And if my tea leaves are correct its gonna be a life changer in a VERY positive way, Andrew! But I don't dare order another cup of tea in case the next cup of tea leaves is different, Lol!


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## beatle (29 September 2010)

What amazes me is the number of shares that are being sold on a day like today, with an announcement imminent! I wonder if these are small shareholders selling out, or being churned by larger insto's, or what? Any thoughts? My view is that the buyer(s) may include those more aggressive buyers such as Baker Steel etc. Just my view, it would be good to get a list of the latest shareholders and who is adding etc. I guess that should happen quite soon!


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## andrewk65 (29 September 2010)

Looking at the course of sales it does seem there is still some bot action going on which I guess means the big boys are still interested. I can't help but feel that this is still winding up like a rubberband. Surely there can be no way the price will fall significantly from here between now and production, and if that is the case then we just need something to trigger the rise. I just hope it's not a mapawa announcement that could turn into a pump for a cr.


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## beatle (29 September 2010)

Andrew, the only capital raising is related to the development of Siana, which could be a mix of debt plus equity or one of those, but in saying that the past quoted requirement of US$40 million is misleading as that was based on a debt only facility (that DB turned into debt plus equity warrants!) and assumed self funding future Mapawa drilling. But aside from that CR I am absolutely sure that RED will not raise additional cash for Mapawa - I have previously asked CJ of that and he was in complete agreement that they will only utilise existing funds available (which included internal funds plus the US$40 million).


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## andrewk65 (29 September 2010)

Sorry Beatle, what I was referring to was a cr to cover the outstanding 40mil or whatever is required for sienna development if db falls thro. My concern is they might put out a good announcement in drilling mapawa, then do a trading halt on the rise and announce cr for sienna development. Unlikely I hope but seems to be the way many others operate in the mining sector. Hopefully your tea leaves hold a much better outcome than this for us.


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## anderbond (29 September 2010)

Hi Beatle, I am not sure what brand of tea leaves you are looking at but I hope it is a good consistent one. That way I expect you will continue to get consistent readings on RED's future and near announcements (lol). As for me I usually indulge in an end of office day glass or two of RED about now. As these are usually aged REDs, there is a crusty sediment left in the bottom of the glass. It has now occurred to me that I might be able to read this like tea leaves lol! By the way, the reason I am drinking aged REDs is not because I have a big expensive cellar, but because I foolishly bought too much RED wine a few years back and cannot consume it at the rate necessary to "liquidate" it in a reasonable time frame. Back then I was younger and foolish, now I am older and..........well....older!
Of course I could say the same thing about my RED shares, bought too many too far back! But hey, there is no way that RED is degenerating like my RED wine. It will just keep getting better and better and better  imo! It will be my retirement fund of that I am sure.
Andrew, no problems with HC. I too post there but only occasionally as there has been some degeneration with some of the posts. Additionally, as all of us have found, the quality and depth of friend Beatle's posts is far ahead of anything that anyone else has to say, so I prefer to stay here.
Now, one more aside. CJ is also Chairman of IAU (Intrepid). For those who have not seen it recently, just have a look at the SP run it has had! Now I am not saying this will be the immediate RED story, but it is encouraging to share the same Chairman. I can also say that IAU spent quite a long time as a "despised" stock, but look at it now!So, sooner or later (but sooner I think), it will be up up and away for all of us! AB


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## beatle (30 September 2010)

Andrew, of course I'm hoping we don't have another equity issue to cover the US$40 million (or whatever they finally decide), but I would assume there will be equity issued, as a debt issue will be hard to achieve if its not with DB in the timeframe we would expect it - bank due diligence is very exhaustive, it typically requires a comprehensive technical review onsite by a reputable consultant, and additionally requires a considerable legal review relating to ownership etc etc, each of which could not be easily done within a couple of months at the earliest (unless the same consultant was used but DB would hardly give permission!). I have already considered a new CR involving purely equity assuming US$40 million at 15.5 cents per share, which would change the valuation of Siana worth, from around 38 cps to 32 cps at a gold price of around US$1,285 plus exchange rate of around A$1.00 =US$0.94 cents. Thus it has a significant impact on the overall evaluation, but still considerably above current level. That does not take into account excess cash nor Mapawa value.

Anderbond, I think you make a very good point re CJ being Intrepid Chairman as well as RED Chairman - noting that IAU main asset is a porphyry copper-gold project in Indonesia. There have been some whopping intersections on that property so far, but interestingly when I spoke to CJ about it he was of the view that Mapawa could still give similar whopping intersections as the LSY prospect at Mapawa had considerable length and width of lower grade gold in alteration zones, and based on the low silver values so far possibly the drilling to date had not touched anywhere near the best zones, notwithstanding the drilling so far had been very successful in plumbing high gold grades at depths of 600 metres! (CJ's observations obviously are based on geologist opinion on site, noting CJ's technical expertise a long time ago was metallurgy, not geology).


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## beatle (30 September 2010)

If CEB2 is lurking out there, perhaps you can give a chartist interpretation of RED? Whilst I believe RED's fundamentals can look after itself, seems to me many traders need to be convinced by reading the charts for a stock before getting as bullish as I am. Maybe you can tell us which day the announcement is out based on your charts for RED eh CEB2 (in jest of course, I respect your interpretation, otherwise I wouldn't be asking for it!).


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## beatle (30 September 2010)

Fastbuck, most appreciative of you handballing the question to CEB2 on HC, and CEB2, absolutely first class commentary of trying to inform a dumb technical trader type like me and others, of how to interpret the share activity in terms of share price. Now we know that CEB2 having put RED's immediate, and future price requirements in terms of charts before us all, we can decide whether it fits the chartists criteria or more closely fits my tea leaves. (And gee CEB2, I'm ecstatic with the RED tea cup (what if i drink green tea, lol!).)

I think, just from an activity point of view, that RED had better start demonstrating its capacity to meet its own set deadline, with an announcement early next week. If it linger much longer than that I would assume some people will start losing faith, esp since RED does have a Listing Rule requirement to maintain continuous disclosure, and having made an announcement of the DB finance on August 5 it MUST report BEFORE the quarterly (due out no later than end of October) of the status of the DB review, and whether that offer of finance remains available or has been terminated (either by RED or DB for that matter!).

I remain bullish that gold production will occur close to the timeframe already set and will not consider selling a single share, and I hope the longer term shareholders will do likewise - each day that passes brings us closer to the finishing line, it would be a shame to fall over at the last hurdle, its getting to a critical time when we might expect share price re-valuation IMO (UP!).


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## beatle (3 October 2010)

In expectation of some early week action in RED (with a much awaited announcement about funding), I have run the financial model again to check what the latest gold/silver/exchange rate does to the Siana valuation model for RED shares.

The inputs I have used are current, being:
Gold US$1,318
Silver US$22
A$/US$ Exchange 0.9720

I have assumed 2 cases, one including only debt, of US$40 million, the other being only equity, also of US$40 million. My thought is with no recent news about the Deutsche Bank offer I presume that is now dead and that an alternative offer will be made and be the basis of any announcement. 

I assume its more likely to be an equity based deal, and have assumed 15.5 cents per share for raising those funds. Its likely if its an equity funding that RED will not go for the entire US$40 million at this stage as it doesn’t need that much for development of Siana due to it having A$56 million or thereabouts in kitty AND the rising A$ will have reduced the capex requirements somewhat, but my assumptions are conservative as a result. 

RED’s value based on Siana alone, excluding Mapawa and excess cash in bank are:

Debt only:  39 cps

Equity only: 33 cps

Therefore, it appears that based on the latest gold/silver/exchange rate that RED valuation has moved slightly higher, and that any equity based deal is worth close to at least double its current share price! If RED doesn’t raise an entire US$40 million in equity (say $35 million) then the valuation moves closer towards 39 cps from the base of 33 cps.

Now RED its your turn – an announcement please ….


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## beatle (4 October 2010)

An interesting aside regarding RED:

I posted the previous commentary on RED (the valuation, of 33 cps or 39 cps based on anticipated funding) yesterday morning approx 22 hours ago (its affected by change to daylight saving over night remember!), with no follow up posting since that time by any other poster. I have not looked at it since it was posted. In that time ASF records that 122 views have been made of my post in that 22 hours - and ASF doesn't appear to update the number of views as each individual view is made, it seems to be periodically, so the ASF views might be more than 122 views! In addition CEB2 most graciously copied the post to another website (HC) and it had got 50 views on that website as its the last of the posts on that particular thread, he copied it about 9 hours ago - i opened his post on HC once and he must have opened it up say 1 time, so you can reduce that reading by 2 only!). 

Therefore, around in cyber-space, whether it be Australia or abroad UP to 170different people have read my post! The significance of that which I believe we should all consider, is that on a weekend in which the AFL and rugby league finals were won and celebrated there remains considerable interest in what someone thinks about RED! I am encouraged about that, I would love to get a break down of who those readers were, its amazing that most obviously don't post but just read someone else's post! I assume it would be mainly retail smaller traders, but who knows. 

I hope relevant RED management read these posts, its so important they get feedback and consider some of the remarks, especially at the moment we have such a high anticipation of an announcement about funding. I believe an argument can be put that RED has not met continuous disclosure with regard to the DB finance offer - if there are very sensitive commercially material negotiations being undertaken at the moment then I can understand the reason why they have not informed the market, but it makes me believe an announcement or Trading Halt is not far from occurring.

As of 9.18am EST Australia, we still have no announcement or TH announced, but I'm waiting with eager anticipation....


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## wtang89 (4 October 2010)

Good Morning Beatle,

I think i may in 'amongst those that read but do not post' category that you mentioned on your previous post. I just like to express my appreciation for your frequent posts of your insights. Yes i think we are all looking forward to an announcement in regards to the financing on RED (HOPEFULLY today). Given the 0 trade volumes, i think i may not be the only one anticipating it.


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## desjosie (4 October 2010)

I'm with you wtang89.. I read more than post.. and also it seems today something is a foot.. no opening price and market is open.. lets hope its good

*** spoke to early.. trade commenced around 10.30am... ***
looks like more waiting..


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## beatle (5 October 2010)

Good morning all, and thanks Wtang89 and Desjosie for your posts and comments! I guess this is going to remain a drama, like pulling teeth at the moment!

RED has met us half way, with today's release of information about Siana progress. It confirms what we had been told some time ago, that the development schedule for Siana has continued on track for first gold production in April 2010 (but with the cautionary comment regarding weather!): "The project build remains within schedule expectations - subject of course to no abnormal rain season weather patterns."

This news and assurance that Siana is developing in line with the development schedule is fantastic new, but its HALF WAY to what we want and need to hear - no guessing what the other half is!!! 

Its surprising (and disappointing) that there was no reference to how the funding arrangements were progressing, although if you read between the lines I would presume that having NO REFERENCE to funding in this announcement that:

1. It must be at a commercially sensitive time for funding negotiations, otherwise it definitely would have been commented on. Thus we can't have a go at RED management legitimately if this assumption is correct. (And any weakness in RED price might be the last chance to top up before it is made, IF you haven't topped up already - I'm full to the brim!).

2. That funding is not a hindrance to development along the timeline schedule at this stage, with treasury funds a healthy A$47.8 million, of which US$19.8 committed.

The long lead time items of the Siana construction, namely the mill and dewatering are also on track, as per the development schedule, and pre-strip earthworks has commenced. These demonstrate that RED is now seriously turning the earth, and we should see some future announcement very shortly that has the potential to knock the last of the doubters!

I would assume we won't get another announcement re funding out today, as most companies, including RED, like to put out separate and important news as standalone announcements, and surely whilst this assurance of Siana status is very important, it still is not THE announcement that will confirm once and for all, that Siana will once again produce gold! 

That funding announcement and todays silence about it means to me that it might only be a few days away or sooner ...


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## beatle (5 October 2010)

Market reaction to RED's announcement confirming and reassuring that the development of the Siana gold operation remains on track for first gold production in April 2011 is subdued at the very least.

I'm fascinated with (presumably) BOT trading that appears to be sending mixed messages (is it a war between different BOTS, lol?), whereby each small UP purchase is met within milliseconds of a similar small DOWN purchase. One would have to ask the question is this a game being played by insto's trading parties, that aims to retain RED's share price in a very tight trading range? I wonder if it also means that its an attempt to ensure that any placement that might be the subject of negotiation with the company is based on the current share price plus/less the usual discount we have all got accustomed to.

Just my wonderings of course . . .

Personally I would like to see it done soon and the market informed that RED has finalised its funding, notwithstanding it getting a good deal out of it!


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## jancha (5 October 2010)

beatle said:


> Market reaction to RED's announcement confirming and reassuring that the development of the Siana gold operation remains on track for first gold production in April 2011 is subdued at the very least.
> 
> I'm fascinated with (presumably) BOT trading that appears to be sending mixed messages (is it a war between different BOTS, lol?), whereby each small UP purchase is met within milliseconds of a similar small DOWN purchase. One would have to ask the question is this a game being played by insto's trading parties, that aims to retain RED's share price in a very tight trading range? I wonder if it also means that its an attempt to ensure that any placement that might be the subject of negotiation with the company is based on the current share price plus/less the usual discount we have all got accustomed to.
> 
> ...




Hi Beatle. With what you're saying above how would you interpret someone dumping 1.8mil shares of RED @ 16c? 
That certainly isn't a small sell.


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## Moit (5 October 2010)

Hi Jancha, from what i can see there isnt a single person dumping 1.8 mill shares , im thinking more like 68 odd people selling 1.7 mill shares, imo of course !!!


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## wtang89 (5 October 2010)

Hiya Jancha i dont think you need to be too concerned about the 'dumping' at 16c because firstly, we dont know that it was indeed a dump (may have been a buy and sell play), that aimed at boosting volume. Secondly, even if it was a dump, the 1.6million was bought by a counter party, therefore even if the original seller was pessimistic towards Red's outlook, a counter party was obviously optimistic. 

It is however interesting that even with the announcement, the stock remained relatively flat. Guess that to me means that everyone is waiting for the news of the financing. I remain optimistic because RED's management is obviously confident about the financing, otherwise it would not pledge close to 20m in addition to what it has already spent!. I agree with beatle in regards to the deliberate avoidance of the financing issue. That to me, signifies that it is indeed a sensitive issue atm and that the management DOES NOT wish to comment, at least at this point. Indeed, we, the management as well as any potential investor is highly interested in regards to the progress AND the management definitely knows that...therefore i like how the management is not disclosing ANY information about the financing until its final. Thats just what i think...Happy trading all.


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## beatle (6 October 2010)

Hi All, what a volatile couple of sessions we have had, both here in Australia in aussie dollar trading (with no rate rise as was highly expected by currency traders) and on overnight on overseas markets, esp gold trading and a big jump in the Dow! 

As you might know we have for the first time a slight disconnect between US$ gold price and the aussie exchange rate, with a positive result for A$ gold price! 

Thus I have reworked the RED valuation model, again assuming each end of the spectrum, with either no equity or no debt in a US$40 million fund raising. The input changes due to commodity/exchange rate are:
Gold = US$1,340/oz
Silver = US$22.8/oz
A$ = US$0.972

RED valuations
Debt only US$40 million = 40 cps
Equity only US$40 million = 34 cps

Thus it makes a marginal positive gain in RED share price, and ONCE (come on RED announce it pleasssssse!) we know whether its debt or equity or mix of both, we know what the ultimate target RED price is once in production (before turning into a premium above that level!).

On another subject in reply to Jancha's question about the 1.8 million shares that were dropped near the close at 16 cents, (and Moit it does appear that 1.8 million or so were dropped in a single transaction at that time) it may or may not be related to the share trading activity that I was referring to earlier in the session - who knows if it was BOT trading as well, or whether it was an entirely independent unrelated trader! I agree with Wtang89, that whatever and whoever it was, it was met by buyer(s - possibly 1 bidder with multiple bids, but certainly not a crossing) and in the end someone put on an order of 16.5 cents Bid close to the end. So Jancha, IF you believe you know how it relates to those ?BOT? trades earlier in the session (as I have interpreted them) then please pass on your wisdom to us all. I can definitely say I have no idea what the motivation was for it, plus those queer BOT-like trades that I referred to mid-session. BOT trading for me remains a mystery.


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## Moit (6 October 2010)

Hi Jancha, my apologies to you, I was absolutely glued to the close yesterday, but some how have missed the dropping of the 1.8 mill shares. I stand corrected...

Hi Beatle, you make an interesting point, that the Ann regarding the build progress, had no mention at all to do with the finance. Obviously management are keeping things very tight lipped, and as some one had previously stated, the silence is deafening...

Market sentiments are pointing toward a great day in trading, let's hope so, go red !!!


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## RADV (6 October 2010)

Hi Guys

New at all this - just started dabbling in the sharemarket. I mainly hold safe and relatively-safe  stocks, so this is my first real 'spec' - your enthusiasm for RED has inspired me 

I would also like to thank you all for so selflessly sharing your wisdom and thoughts with others like me - very much appreciated!


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## beatle (6 October 2010)

Hi RADV, and welcome to the RED thread, its always good to get some new posters involved!

If you have not dabbled in the smaller "spec" end of the market, then I suggest you sit back and watch how the smaller shares trade for a while before getting actively involved. And to be honest, if you consider investing in RED, if you haven't already done so, be prepared for some frustrations along the way! At times I wonder if RED refers to the colour of the paint that I'm watching dry, lol - Its so bleeding slow at times!

But hopefully RED will start to move up a gear soon. As you may have read already, RED is about to finalise the funding for its new gold development at Siana in the Philippines, and until that funding is finally bedded down and announced to the market then there are many perennial baggers of the company. Once all funds have been raised and then as it moves towards first gold production, scheduled for April 2011, its likely the company will be re-rated in the market. I've been expecting that re-rating now for a long long time (thus my comment about watching RED paint dry above), and I remain confident it WILL happen and the patient will be rewarded.

I might also make the point that RED is likely to be re-rated regardless of whether the gold price remains at US$1,340/oz or even as low as US$1,000/oz based on the fundamental valuation of Siana (so there's plenty of room for re-rating). But of course in a falling gold price environment there will be many investors moving out of gold stocks so that will likely have a negative impact on a full re-rating for RED.

The other point to note, is that my valuation remains only that covering its Siana gold project, and excludes any excess cash (beyond that required to build Siana) and value attributed to Mapawa, a very promising porphyry gold project having copper credits.

Good luck with your investing RADV


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## beatle (6 October 2010)

Real share price action in RED this morning, trading at 18 cents and a small number on the Bid at 18.0 cents, after taking out a couple million shares at 17.5/18.0 cents. Total so far traded this morning 4 million plus, up 9%!

Is this the precursor to an announcement regarding funding arrangements, I wonder? I'm sure it will look good to technical chartists - any thoughts CEB2?


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## desjosie (6 October 2010)

Good to finally see some movement and the gap of sellers to buyers widen.. hopefully this is the start to a up hill run..


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## wtang89 (6 October 2010)

Hiya all.

I was just about to post. It looks like red is trading up once again with strong support at 17.5 (3m shares+). Wonder if this is a sign of great things to come, maybe we will test the 20c mark. Still waiting for the announcement on the financing progress.


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## Hurricane (6 October 2010)

I wouldn't call myself an expert chartist but RED is pretty close to a MACD buy signal.


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## RADV (6 October 2010)

beatle said:


> Hi RADV, and welcome to the RED thread, its always good to get some new posters involved!
> 
> If you have not dabbled in the smaller "spec" end of the market, then I suggest you sit back and watch how the smaller shares trade for a while before getting actively involved. And to be honest, if you consider investing in RED, if you haven't already done so, be prepared for some frustrations along the way! At times I wonder if RED refers to the colour of the paint that I'm watching dry, lol - Its so bleeding slow at times!
> 
> ...







Too late - I have already bought a handful (and I must say very happy so far today ). Although I have only just started purchasing shares, I have been researching/reading/watching for over a year now, so patient I can do. I don't mind one or two stocks being a bit more...shall we say 'exciting'?..than the rest of my portfolio 

I am not a trader, just a humble first-time share investor, so I doubt I will have much to contribute to the post, but I appreciate your welcome.


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## beatle (6 October 2010)

Great to hear that news Hurricane, I'm sure CEB2 will also give us a detailed chartists interpretation when he's got time - I wouldn't be surprised if he's glued to the screen watching this happening!

Wtang89, great to see your continuing posts now! As for the level of resistance we have to burst through at 19.5/20 cents etc, it will be interesting to see if it disappears IF an announcement occurs in the next day or so. 

I continue to think about the reported Melb based insto that has indicated previously its interest in taking up a sizeable holding once funding is confirmed - it was indicated earlier they might take up to around 5 - 6% of RED shares if finance is available for the development, and that represents around 50 million shares or thereabouts. If its not from a placement itself it has to come from sellers. I can't see sellers being so free with their trades once 20 cents capitulates! I hope that insto remains interested in RED and the gold sector for investment...


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## beatle (6 October 2010)

The only issue with this trading is that RED will most likely get a speeding ticket, based on both volume and share price increase. RED must either put out a Trading Halt now or put out an announcement otherwise they will get a please explain, and it would be so hard to defend no news if they are in the midst of finalising funding, that the market is anticipating!

Please RED, put out a Trading Halt now!!!


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## wtang89 (6 October 2010)

Thanks for the warm welcome beatle, I am settling in to a new city now (HK) and so I have a bit more time to contribute. It seems like buyers are really heating up on RED as there larger buy orders at 18.5 and 19c, creating new resistance. This signals to me like someone knows that something  (the pending announcement of the refinancing?)...(insider leaking information??). Speak of the devil beatle, we are at 19.5c and given that theres 300k at 19.5 and 1m at 20c (with an hour and a half left in the day), who knows what will happen ^^. Might have new high by the end of the day, ladies and gentleman!


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## beatle (6 October 2010)

I notice that while RED has just started to take out the relatively small offers at 19.5 cent, a wall at 20 cents is building, close to a million share on offer through 11 separate offers. I presume they are traders betting that the resistance will hold. If there is a speeding ticket by ASX then they will probably get their way momentarily with RED coming off the boil.

BUT if there is no speeding ticket, then just think who might be buying RED, and what would their focus be on - do you think its an odd cent trader? I don't at all. My view is its some bigger insto's taking a longer term view of the price for RED, probably closer to its fundamental values, in the 30's. Thus from a short term point of view selling out at 20 cents may reap a short term gain, I would much prefer to stay in the market with ALL my shares, and reap the longer term reward, of much more than a 20% or so revaluation, maybe closer to 100% on its recent trading price range.

Its good to see lots of trading in RED at 19.5 cents, its just a matter of time now ...

Thats just my view of course, and I am biased.


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## ParleVouFrancois (6 October 2010)

Haha I was watching RED this morning when it was still around 17 cents, my eyes must've glazed over because I only noticed they shot up to 19 cents when you mentioned it Wtang! Hopefully this means that people are getting set for the finance announcement which should be out sometime this month or next, then some of Beatle's analysis can come true .


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## beatle (6 October 2010)

ParleVouFrancais, if you go away for a couple more days it might test new levels, haha. (But to be honest I expect a Please Explain soon, that will slow it down til RED get honest with the funding and thats gonna be hard to explain once the exchange ask why its moved up and RED, as companies have to do, say there is nothing to report other than what was reported yesterday, then a day later put out a funding announcement!). Crazy arrangement, RED needs to put out a funding announcement before it gets called to report by ASX (my view anyway!).

As for CEB2, he is shy but I want to respond to a comment of his made elsewhere (I hate living in this aquarium, sorry CEB!) - "anyway ... just bouncng this thought around ... if RED was to go for cap raising ... would't it be great if they did it once the share price hit 24 cents or so?"

I suggest that the funding, IF its equity, will be at a level closer to around what RED was trading at the previous days (perhaps with a slight discount dare I say, or could they spring a surprise and offer it at a premium) - but surely it will be a placement to a group of insto's plus/minus sophisticated investors. As long as its not a long dated SPP or rights issue I am not fussed. But of course the preferred funding is always going to be reasonably priced debt (not that apparently mezzanine DB offer unless terms of the warrants are acceptable!). Here's hoping, but don't expect anything better than reasonably priced equity is my expectation.


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## anderbond (6 October 2010)

Hi Beatle, as thought we can expect a finance announcement within two weeks. Exclusivity period has finished as previously mentioned. Siana is on track as stated in yesterday's announcement. Revised offer for finance to be forthcoming. AB


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## fastbuck1 (6 October 2010)

Beatle if there was a ASX query regarding price and volume :chimney:chimneythey would most likerly refer to yesterdays announcements, so it's full steam ahead....this is the 4th time its touched .195 , so there must be some tea leave to be RED by the chartist, exciting times ahead.....regards ......fastbuck.


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## ParleVouFrancois (6 October 2010)

Hey Beatle I'll stop watching my RED shares if you stop watching yours, then it'll go up TWICE as fast! 

I think the price rise today is purely on speculation of a completed finance deal to be announced within this week, and the update on construction, which is going according to schedule with nothing too much out of ordinary, which is what you want from an explorers first foray into mining! If we get an announcement sometime this week with favorable financing, it can only be good news for RED, so here's to hope that we get another update!


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## beatle (6 October 2010)

Ok, thats a deal ParleVousFrancais, I will stop watching my shares in RED ok? Similarly you can stop watching yours. Instead I'll watch your shares and you can watch mine, lol!

I watch every day because, just like you, I'm convinced todays little run was a sign of things positive to come - where there is smoke there is fire, and we all know there is plenty of RED smoke now! I will look forward to the day that it breaks through 20 cents and keeps running, I have no doubt that day is just around the corner as well! I believe we may have seen the last of the significant cycles back down to 12 cents, its probably now going to run in a different direction! 

And just to look forward to much more action, as a comparison, at todays closing price of RED, its market cap is only A$181 million, whilst MML which is already producing similar amounts of gold in a similar Phils mining environment, broke through A$1 billion in market cap, ending at around A$1,031 million - some 5.7 times that of RED!!! If RED was to achieve only half of MML's market cap that amounts to 53 cents per share for RED (that's a good starting point I should think!).

Fastbuck and Anderbond, of course you are both quite correct, that yesterday's announcement confirms that things remain on track with Siana development for gold production in the second quarter of 2011 and with a raging gold price overnight aided by reduced aussie dollar strength cf gold price and strong overseas markets last night, it all added up to a great day for all gold shares, including RED. That's a good rationale I must admit.

Anderbond, I hope you are on the money with the timing, but would like to think its closer to this week than in 2 weeks time! My nerves won't hold out any longer! (I may have to start drinking some of your old RED stuff with the sediment to read the next chartist interpretation correctly!).


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## ParleVouFrancois (6 October 2010)

Yes Mr Beatle I agree we should be trading around half of MML when we start producing, because MML's margin is higher, and we still have financing risk, where we are today is still a bit lower than I think we should be. However you can't question the market, it's always correct , I just want that elusive TH and finance announcement, it's been a long time coming and I'll be glad to see RED a roaring success . Lots of excitement building up around RED for me, just hoping for some GREEN days.


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## anderbond (7 October 2010)

Beatle, yes I think I have got the timing about right for an announcement.  Latest announcement described as a "cleansing" statement, with the next one to be the revised finance announcement. It could be slightly sooner than two weeks of course but that seems the given timeframe. Likely to include a CR it seems. DB still there with amendments. Mapawa expected to be about 10 times Siana. AB


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## beatle (7 October 2010)

Hi All, great to be able to post on RED after such a strong GREEN day, and with the likely promise that there's more GREEN to follow in coming days when RED finally announces its funding! In this current bullish environment for gold stocks I have no doubt that such an announcement will be the catalyst for RED to break well into the 20's, on its way up to and beyond its fundamental value.
I am also excited by the prospect, as was discussed yesterday by ParleVousFrancais as well, that MML has broken through the A$1 billion barrier market cap, and with say 50% of that market cap RED (based on its current shares on issue of course) could be worth around 52 cps! What are the reasons why RED should have some comparison to MML? 
1. They both "operate" (RED in an exploration/development sense of the word "operate", MML in a production and exploration sense) within historic mining districts of Mindanao in the Philippines, approx 150 kms by road from each other. They have similar strong affinities with the local communities, with mutual support/reliance of those communities. 
2. They have similar exploration environments linked by the common Philippines Fault system that traverses the entire Philippines region from roughly north to south, with the potential to develop large porphyry gold/copper projects.
3. They both have historic gold mines that form the basis of the newer operations for Co-o (MML) and Siana (RED). Each has long life mining operations based on considerable reserves, (MML - 5 years, RED - 9 years) with the potential to extend beyond existing reserves, along strike and at depth. Reserves for MML are 500,000 ozs, whilst RED has 840,000 ozs in reserves.
4. Both MML and RED anticipate working up to 100,000 oz gold production within the next couple of years. 

The significant differences, that are the reason for the current suggestion that RED should have a considerably lower market cap compared to MML are:
1. MML is in operation, and its operating margin is greater, based on a very low operating cost. RED is not in operation yet. RED's operating cost, when in production, is envisaged to be within the second quartile for gold producers, MML is in the lowest quartile.
2. RED is yet to announce its final funding package to confirm that it can get to production as it aims to by second quarter next year, 2011.

OFFSETTING those differences, RED's Siana is a new project operating WITHIN the Philippines system that allows 50% of its operating mine life to be TAX FREE! MML pays its full tax requirements as its corporate structure will not provide for that tax free status.

I can see a time, once RED confirms its funding package and moves towards first production, that the discounting in price that RED currently has endured will move closer to its fundamental value, and thereafter as production commences, that RED share price will also be at a premium, thus if we remain in this strong gold price environment RED could conceivably move beyond 50 cents towards A$1.00!!!

That is my view anyways. Now its up to you RED, one step (forward!) at a time . . .


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## hugh_jarzz (7 October 2010)

Hi Beatle...I was just looking at the silver price and wondered whether you had factored in the ag credits in your calculations, as regards Siana? Also, you keep alluding to a possible equity raising in conjunction with a possible new debt package....I have stated before that I believe that not only is it FURTHER diluting long-standing holders, it seems totally unnecessary, given a host of factors swirling around debt capital markets right now, all indicating that there is demand for exposure to the Phillipines, and also to robust projects such as Siana. If there is in fact some mythical Melbourne insto waiting in the wings to pick up 5% of the company, if I were Baker Steel or Mathews Capital, I would be livid were there to be a discounted offering to enable this group to get set. So would I!!!!


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## KurwaJegoMac (7 October 2010)

RED just broke it's 52-week range, meaning a new high for the past year! 

Might see an increase in activity from traders on the breakout, but either way it's a positive sign and i'm eager to see how the breakout develops


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## beatle (7 October 2010)

Hi Hugh_Jarz, good to see you still following RED, and your comments regarding finance etc. 

In answer to your question re Silver price in my model: As indicated in my prior post, I did put all the significant new inputs into the Siana valuation model, re Au/Silver/AUD. The incremental change in silver has not had a pronounced  impact on the valuation, despite there being approx 1.44 million ounces of recovered silver in Siana - once again the impact of the AUD is not helping as it slowly moves back up beyond US$0.97 after the drop the other day with the rate decision by the RBA.

I would like to clearly state that I'm not aware of, nor a party to, any of the discussions regarding RED and its outstanding funding arrangements. I'm just commentating of what those outcomes could provide from an investors point of view. Therefore, in order to establish each outcome I have developed scenarios in my model that looks at the extremes, from debt included through to only equity included. 

THE MOST IMPORTANT OUTCOME OF MY ANALYSIS IS THAT EVEN IF EQUITY IS THE ROUTE FOR FUNDING IT IS VALUE ACCRETIVE FOR RED DESPITE IT BEING LESS ATTRACTIVE TO AN ALL DEBT ROUTE.

Of course I would prefer the debt route if its achievable with reasonable terms and conditions, and does not take forever it to occur. I would however, much prefer an equity issue, as a placement to some selected insto's at anything like current share price, if its done on a timely basis. I believe that time is of the essence, to commence gold production as soon as it is practicable, since RED should take advantage of the higher gold prices likely to be available - and I have stated before, that I would see it being very positive if RED were to put in place, as a proportion of its future gold production, gold hedging to take advantage of current gold prices.

I believe that any of the larger existing shareholders such as Matthews and Baker Steel would see the value of even an equity issue to get the funding completed (they could well be part of that issue if it were to be offered).

As for that mystical Melbourne based insto, well that scenario makes for some exciting possibilities, but times have changed with RED's share price moving up the past days, so who knows what that group are thinking now. I am not aware that they were being targetted for this funding package though, so it could be on-market activity to come. 

Who knows . . .


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## beatle (7 October 2010)

I would be interested in feedback from some of the longer term shareholders in RED, that are not apt to trade for a 0.5 - 1.0 cent gain:

If you have been a longer term shareholder/follower of RED I'm sure you would be as convinced as me that we are now in the midst of RED's initial re-rating by the market, with an expectation that funding is soon to be announced -the reassurance we got from its ASX release that development of Siana remains on track for gold production in the second quarter of 2011 probably has an unwritten notice and expectation of funding to follow! Therefore, if we are in the midst of that re-rating and it could move right past 30 cents based on fundamental valuation of Siana alone, why would you consider selling your shares at this price? 

Do others have that same view of RED as me, or do you feel that its better to take profits at this halfway place, to ensure that you cut your risk profile? I have read ParleVousFrancais webpage commentary, and his view is appreciated on here. 

I feel that whilst there are sellers out there, the buyers, who are presumably larger insto's, have a little time on their hands to hold the share price at each level waiting to allow the trickling out of weaker holders. 

I for one do not have any intention of selling at anything like this initial stage of RED's re-rating. I am convinced that the buyers are not out to get a 1 cent gain, they are largely in to RED in a bigger longer term way, to extract much more value based on gold production and a development schedule that should see production in April 2011.

Thats my view anyway, any other views on this are welcome and sought . . .


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## kash (7 October 2010)

I have bought and sold red before for tidy profit. But now i have been holding for the finance ann and into the new year for production. I will be holding til this hits closer to or beyond value.


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## beatle (7 October 2010)

As a follow up to my last post, I noticed that RED appears to be coming off the boil after an earlier morning flurry. There was a lone trade, of 50,000 shares at 19.5 cents, the first to break down after earlier trading up to 20.5 cents and then some decent volume at 20.0 cents. So what about that last 50,000 shares traded at 19.5 cents - guess what, it was a crossing. That might be coincidental, but also it might be that the main buyer of shares is playing again, trying to weaken the resolve or weaker holders!

I wouldn't be surprised if there is no takers at 19.5 cents then the buyer will be forced to push up the trades at 20.0 cents. Whilst they have some time on their side, once the funding is announced it might push buyers to much higher levels. Of course thats just my feeling and I wouldn't want people holding out for that!


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## beatle (7 October 2010)

Soon after that lone 50,000 shares crossed at 19.5 cents trading resumed at 20 cents. And interestingly a buyer for 2 million shares at the end of a list of bidders at 19.5 cents appeared. Does that mean someone is positioning for taking out of a weaker 2 million holder, or a sign that RED is about to resume its upwards path?

(Excuse the blow by blow description, but sometimes the trading is intriguing, giving you an insight to what is happening at the coalface by some relevant bids/offers/trades).


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## desjosie (7 October 2010)

What a great day.. Just wish i brought some more at 0.16c .. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.. I'll just have to be happy with the little Parcel i have and watch that grow.. heres for better day tomorrow..


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## wtang89 (7 October 2010)

Haha josie hindsight is a pain...but given the recent run and with the pending finance announcement, things do indeed look good for red. I might pick up a few more shares once we see that announcement assuming that the sp remains at similar to current levels. Happy trading all


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## Rick64 (7 October 2010)

Hi beatle lots of shares after close today mate must be saying something. When I get some more time later today I will post further.


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## Rick64 (7 October 2010)

Well beatle and all others thankyou so much for all your informative commentary, I have learnt more from this site in the last few weeks than I have anywhere else in the last 12 months.
I am still new to trading/investing, and have limited funds compared to many people, having only really traded for the last 12 months. I enjoy it, but have found it to be very time consuming and a some times coslty learning experience, but after a year of trading i feel i am finally getting the hang of it.
With regard to RED, it was first brought to my attention by a friend whose brother is a stockbroker in he early months of this year when it was trading at 10/11 cps. Unfortunately at the time my funds were all tied up in other stocks and just recently (last few days) is he first time I have been able to take a couple of dollars profit enabling me to invest in RED.
I have read every post in this thread several times over and on many occasions have I debated cutting my losses and selling all to invest the lot in RED, but today I finally achieved enough earnings to allow me to buy a small parcel.
I ended up paying near the top, but from what I have read here and researched myself, I feel and hope that things can only improve. As more funds hopefully become available, I will endeavor to buy more of RED, but one thing Beatle, what do you think of my idea of selling 8 other stocks to buy RED, considering my others are all specs and are all over the place.
Once again, thankyou so much to all contributors


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## ParleVouFrancois (7 October 2010)

Mr Beatle thanks for doing a little plug for my blog up there . 

I believe 25 cents is a good time for me to take all the risk off the table from RED, as a doubling in SP and selling down half is like I just got 5k in free shares in RED @ 25 cents from uncle Beatle's research! That being said I don't have an order in at 25 cents as of yet, I don't want to jinx this latest price rise , so hopefully a TH for the financing, then when we get out it's already 30 cents so I don't get a chance to sell!


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## anderbond (7 October 2010)

G'day Beatle and other posters, well I feel it is a good day to again partake in sipping some older RED wine, while trying not to strain the sediment through my teeth (yes I still have them!lol). A very good day with a strong close. Beatle you seem to have missed my comments made earlier today, however I think they are near the mark. I also believe there is strong interest from N America in our little company, so don't be surprised to see something happen there. Your modelling incorporating a mix of debt and CR may well prove to be fairly accurate imo. Well time to sip a nice 2002 Cab/Merlot from the Hunter. AB


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## anderbond (7 October 2010)

G'day Beatle and other posters, well I feel it is a good day to again partake in sipping some older RED wine, while trying not to strain the sediment through my teeth (yes I still have them!lol). A very good day with a strong close. Beatle you seem to have missed my comments made earlier today, however I think they are near the mark. I also believe there is strong interest from N America in our little company, so don't be surprised to see something happen there. Your modelling incorporating a mix of debt and CR may well prove to be fairly accurate imo. Well, time to sip a nice 2002 Cab/Merlot from the Hunter. AB


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## beatle (7 October 2010)

Hi All at the RED clubhouse, what a great day, and I'm so happy to see so many more, and new posters. I believe that strength is in numbers, it gives us another semi-quantitative indicator to how a share is going, and clearly there has been a substantial increase in posts and posters in RED in recent times, both here at ASF and elsewhere. 

I would like to make a very general comment about the trading today in RED before following up specifics with various of the posters.

Like some of the longer shareholders in RED I have at times watched the trading intently, esp of course when there has been sufficient action to keep me awake and when I have not had to do some housechores directed by the boss of the household (Hmmm!). 

Those observations have given me a fairly good idea of how trading has changed over the years, and how the more recent trading patterns have developed with the involvement of much bigger trades (insto's presumably) and the innovative BOTS (that I still am not sure of other than knowing it probably requires a serious player to have one invoked on their behalf!). Of course you have to also recognise that RED, with a fairly hefty number of quoted shares approaching 1 billion, means that its not easy to influence the movement of RED share price, unless you are a bigger player with much bigger wallet. So someone like me and other retail traders &/or shareholders rarely can influence the movement, just follow it.

There have been others observe the trading patterns of RED in say the past year or so, and have even used the term "manipulation" to describe the activity. Whilst that might be inferred to be a sinister activity, I don't see it that way at all, I get heartened when I see it as I know there is an intent by a serious player to try to weaken the resolve of smaller shareholders to drop their stock. So provided you are aware of that, then its a sign to me that there is more activity in RED trading around the corner and the indication is that over the following days/weeks its likely that RED will be moving up based on strong buying signals. I see those observations as in a way being synomymous to "hand to mouth technical analysis of the trades", except I'm not using charts, I'm watching the actual trades. 
Today about an hour to the end of trading was most instructive for me, and it was documented with some of my posts that you can refer to above. I'm of the view that there was a deliberate attempt to try to coerce some weaker holders (possibly shorter term day traders etc) to drop stock, by forcing the price lower. (I refer to the crossing of 50,000 shares in one parcel at 19.5 cents). About 10 minutes after I posted that, shares began to trade again at 20 cents, and soon thereafter the whole of the 20 cents shares on offer were taken out. 

Then at the close, there was some fairly strong bidding to keep RED at 20.5 cents. I was heartened by this plus the crossing action, and I believe that there is no doubt some bigger player trying to get a lot more stock at present, but they have met with a fair degree of seller reluctance to drop shares downwards, only to meet at the same level or higher price. I feel that so long as people are aware of that, then they won't make it easy for the buyer to get the stock at this current level. I can see that time is on our hands, as each day is a day closer to RED making an announcement on funding which could well and truly change the RED share price (upwards) forever! 

Now, yes Anderbond, you are quite right, I didn't see your post, as I was posting at the same time and therefore it didn't show in my window at all until you pointing it out just then. And wow, what a post, short as it might be, its full of information. Is this your 3rd hand source? If DB are still there then its a good outcome, as obviously we all prefer a debt funding provided the terms and conditions are reasonable and if there is any equity component its not excessive or lowly priced! If we get some mix of debt plus equity we can assume a valuation for Siana somewhere between the 40 cents and 34 cents valuation based on debt only and equity only scenarios I have described elsewhere. Thats a good starter for RED seeing that does not include anything other than Siana. Thus your comment about Mapawa being about 10 times the size of Siana is all bonus!!! But I hope there is some difference in timing between the funding and Mapawa, as it would be good to get a re-rating on Siana alone for starters.

I welcome your post Kash, about your future view on investment in RED, and its more in line with mine, but I admit that I expect to hold my RED for longer than first production as I believe that Mapawa will take longer to derive considerable value with the mine opening being a priority for RED over the next few months.

Rick, most appreciative of your comments, and if you have learned anything plus made some cash from RED its a great result. I do feel like we can all support each other with regards to either information or whatever for the common cause of increasing our knowledge of our investments in RED, although of course you must take full responsibility for your own investment decisions. And with your comments about you having about 8 other specs plus RED and wonder whether you should consolidate your investment with it all in RED. Well I'm sure most would say, firstly don't put more than what you can afford to lose in spec stocks, and the other thing is the argument that diversification is safer in case something goes belly up. Not sure how that helps you at all, or even me, as to be honest my biggest investment now by far is RED, with probably about 90% of my spec investments in RED - but due to me extreme bias I don't even consider RED as a spec nowadays, for me its a dead cert, so I'm not a good person to advise you. I believe that spec stock picking is all about trusting management, and having confidence in the assets. I do with RED, except RED management are awfully conservative which means they are never going to set the world on fire with news and speed of delivery - both very frustrating for shareholders, except RED has got the goods in terms of it being a laggard and therefore we have been able to buy RED shares at a price much cheaper due to that under-performance in the past. I think those times are now numbered with the change in the shareholdings. (I haven't answered your question about your other specs vs RED, and you have to be more asking yourself the question why you bought them and is the situation now the same as it was when you bought them).

Hi ParleVousFrancais, you did state that intention in your webpage blog but I was not going to make a comment, preferring you to confirm it here. I see your strategy being a very reasonable and safe way to trade out of RED. Lets hope that it does achieve 25 cents pretty quickly though, then maybe you might change the exit price for the first 50%, lol - after all I won't have many of your shares to watch after you!

And yes I think we all agree with your Desjosie about hindsight, including wtang89. Even I, the most biased RED commentator, was not prepared to put another dollar into RED in the past few weeks as I believed we were to get an update about Siana development but nothing came. So I wondered if RED share price might go for a mini-drop back to 15 cents, just below where Yuyu had about 50,000 shares sitting at 15.5 cents, and assuming he didn't change his buy price we both missed out! In the end I am very happy with my existing holdings and will wait for the next big announcement with interest!

Anderbond, now you have got me more excited referring to Mapawa being 10 times the size of Siana, which is about right since I can see it being at least 100 million tonnes minimum if exploration continues as the first 6 holes of information, of course at a lower gold grade (but still very profitable grade with potentially around 3.5 million contained ozs of gold). Do you believe there will be news coming soon on Mapawa? Now back to your RED Anderbond, I hope you can see the sediment by the time you finish the bottle!


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## Moit (7 October 2010)

Hi Everyone, WOW it's great to see our Red family of investors growing so rapidly, and it's great to see your posts and your interest with such a profitably and prosperous company, such as Red. OMG, how can any of us go wrong. With Reds potential and with the amount of investors still to jumping on board(currently 12.9m buys, to 5.6m sells), and AB's obs with Mapawa being 10 fold the size of Siana. WOW, i can't get that figure out of my head; what an investment...

What a fantastic couple of days, currently 20% in 2 days, i did believe were in for another scambling, and i don't think we have seen the last of it. Especially if AB's source is true in what he says, and i believe he is, that the finance ann is set to be released to the public in the next week ot two. We just have to be patient, it is near... 
I just hope those patient investors don't get itchy. Now knowing the size of Mapawa, that has just convinced me more, to hanging on to my precsious little gold mine or two, LOL.

To Rick64: Mate I've got to tell you, and sorry Beetle, but i, myself sold the majority of my Blue chips/spec stocks to virtually invest in Red. I could see the potential, that was a little over a year ago now . It boils down to common sense, I think.  Explorer to GOLD MINER. The math is there. I know there are still political issues over in the phyills, but I'm preying that , that doesn't effect us. Red has so much going for it, and it's still a very cheap stock. You go and $10k worth  at 50 cents, so how many you get!

I want to buy more, but my wife has had her say. I brought a brand new Harely in march, and said i would sell it, if Red went to 8 cents. I'm now really greatful, I've got a 60 odd % profit and still got my hog. 
And Bettle, buddy if your that full to the brim you could always throw a few shares to your old mate,  LOL. How could anyone be that full of Red Shares, i couldn't have enough, LOL.

And AB, i love a nice drop of RED, but only have XXXX in the fridge. Im having a nice bottle of that. Just tring to read the bottom of that, i can see a golden future ahead...

Go RED, your time has come !!! 



GO RED..............................................


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## ParleVouFrancois (7 October 2010)

Haha Mr Moit you're a very positive person, and that's a... positive thing. LOLOL 

While I think holding more then say 50% in any one company is generally a bad idea (there are plenty of value opportunities similar to RED in the market right now), if you're THAT confident about something I say go for it. As long as you only risk money that you can afford to lose, and you aren't investing other people's money LOAD THE TRUCK UP haha. While RED probably isn't the best value share out there, it's up there near the top somewhere. Good luck to all holders and let's hope we get a positive financial agreement (100% debt, all at 2% above bank bill rate would get the SP MOVING).

PVF.


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## Moit (7 October 2010)

Hi PVF, and thanks for your post... I'm an extremely eggs-cited man, also  knowing I've put almost all my eggs into nearly 1 basket but i have so much faith in RED, that it's unfathomable...

One thing I'd like to shead to light among us RED followers...

I've been talking to a person who through his accountant, gets his tax done yearly.The tax man seen how many RED shares he held, and said that he just met a client who had a S@#T load of RED shares and thats in the very same town i live in... It just goes to show how small of world we actually do live in, and just how popular RED 5 LIMITED is becoming...

And BEATLE i just reviewed my last post and i spelled your name differently, twice, Oops. PLS forgive lol...


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## ParleVouFrancois (7 October 2010)

Hey Beatle I was wondering if I could feature your latest analysis on RED in my blog, you're a very skilled writer and your analysis of RED would be far better then mine, of course all credit will be given, I'm just trying to get the stories of my shares out there and through the best writers possible. How about it?

Shoot me a PM


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## desjosie (8 October 2010)

Can someone please tell me why anyone in there right mind would sell 5000 shares at 0.18c when we are at 0.205 and the chance of going higher... is there some ploy in this...


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## beatle (8 October 2010)

Good morning all, I hope we are all bright RED eyed and bushy tailed ready for another battle on the market, lol?

Although the price of gold is off overnight and the DOW down a touch, I can't see it affecting RED's move, whatever that might be today, due to RED now trading on a different basis to the general market. I'm sure the aussie will also have a softening affect as it tends to react as a compensating factor to the US$ gold price (that's whats been happening over past weeks when gold was moving up).

IF RED is still a week or 2 away from news of the funding (according to Anderbond sources) then I assume its got that time to trade in the dark, and we can expect the unexpected, and learn how the bigger traders take a position! Most of us believe that the RED funding WILL happen, thus anyone wanting to position themselves for that announcement has just this period of time trading in the dark to act. Will it drop back upon the announcement? (Buy the rumour, sell the news as the saying goes). I don't think so, as I believe that some of the insto's that won't trade spec stocks will re-categorise RED outside of the specs and consider it a growth story, knowing its then on the path to first gold production in the coming year! 

About your question ParleVousFrancais, of course I have no problem with you posting any of my analysis or commentaries on your webpage, as all it does is spread the message to a wider audience. I'm grateful for your compliment, and hope it achieves our objectives to enhance RED shareholder value (lol). 

And I have no problems with your spelling Moit, I get the impression you might have RED eyes this morning, seems like you might have seen a lot of gold in the bottom of those XXXX bots! I'm interested to hear about your accountant referring to RED and lets hope that it finally gets the recognition that it deserves, as a completely discounted stock, about to be re-rated upwards in the market!

Desjosie, I agree with you, its again this mysterious manner to trading, I'd love to know if its a small seller wanting out or a bigger buyer trying to dampen expectations of a rising market (my view of course is more towards the latter!). Similarly, the 8,334 shares @ 24 cents on the Bid, lol - my trading system won't allow those sorts of "out of market" bid/offer (maybe they are both broker set/interposed trades). (I'll be interested to see if the 400,000 shares on Offer at 20.5 cents is real also, or whether it will get pulled just before opening!).


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## beatle (8 October 2010)

If someone has a theory/knowledge of why they impose a BOT to chomp away at 20 cents in 2,750 share bites at a time please let me know. All it does is make me know the bigger guys are around!


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## beatle (8 October 2010)

Well the 400,000 shares were not pulled, and its getting chomped at 2,750 lots per chomp! I really can't understand why someone would want to sell at this level knowing some big insto is taking this at current levels - they are not buying serious amounts of stock at this level thinking they will just leave it to make a 1 cent turn surely!

On another point CEB2, sorry I forgot your request and will think about it (I would hate to give you a bum steer after this positive experience with RED, but please note that AOH is breaking out at present, I have got a few of them - its the former VCN and is in the process of starting up its copper project in Finland, and has a market cap of only about $60 million).

By the way Yuyu, of course the number of shares on issue is always a problem with companies (yet it does allow better liquidity too), but at the end of the analysis I agree with Fastbuck, that its the market cap that is more relevant. So it doesn't matter that MML has got a lot less shares than RED, its the fact that its got a market cap of more than A$1 billion that matters in any comparison with RED.


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## First Timer (8 October 2010)

Hey all, Been reading these forums for a month or so now and have to say it has become a religous thing now  New to trading so reading all these posts and learning as i go. Been reading the RED post now with great interest. Just trying to figure out if and when to buy in. Very e$citing times ahead for some of you no doubt  Big thanks to people posting informative information for noobs like myself. Anyway back to the closet for me :


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## beatle (8 October 2010)

Great to get your post First Timer, and keep glued to the trading activity on RED as it appears there are some serious trading activities in place at the moment! 

There was just a trade of 4 million, then when I checked it realised that it was a crossing, AND that ALL the BOT trades are also CROSS TRADES! That might be a coincidence, but its an interesting coincidence! The broker obviously would have to confirm his hand in undertaking cross trades for the buyer/seller IF they don't know already! I can see this trading amounting to only the share price going higher once the time is right! (Thats not an intended ramp based on nothing than my biased opinion, its my gut feel for this sort of trading activity which has always been a significant indicator of something in the wind for RED).


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## desjosie (8 October 2010)

Hi! First Timer and welcome.. Like you I am new to the world of Shares and my first bite of the Big (RED) Cherry was in this stock.. To answer your question imo if you are considering buying in, now would be the right time.. with a ann coming soon and some real strange buying (today) I personally cant see this moving much down (maybe Beatle can inform if I may be wrong)
I was considering buying more at the bottom of the week at 0.16c as previously posted.. but I think I have missed that boat.. Good luck and again welcome..

And a new high has arrived as I post


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## ParleVouFrancois (8 October 2010)

Hey Beatle just informing you that I've posted your analysis of RED on my site, hopefully we get a few new members of the RED thread on ASF because of it, sure gets lonely in here sometimes!

Anyway back to "not watching" my RED shares


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## RADV (8 October 2010)

First Timer said:


> Hey all, Been reading these forums for a month or so now and have to say it has become a religous thing now  New to trading so reading all these posts and learning as i go. Been reading the RED post now with great interest. Just trying to figure out if and when to buy in. Very e$citing times ahead for some of you no doubt  Big thanks to people posting informative information for noobs like myself. Anyway back to the closet for me :




I bought it at 17c just two days ago - if it keeps moving up at the same rate, I would suggest the time to buy in is now


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## Moit (8 October 2010)

Hi all, hope everyone slept OK, i know i did. Though i did wake up with red the eyes to Beatle, lol. About that guy who lives in the same town as me with the bucket load of RED shares. All i really know is he sold every stock he had and dumped the lot on RED. That has come from an accountant, actually my accountant.. I wouldn't have a clue who he is. Maybe we are talking to him as we speak on ASF. I'm intrigued though Beatle, you don't live near me do you??? lol.

10 Min's ago we just cracked the 21 c mark, and now building up great support at 20.5. Should be another great day. Come on you little beauty...


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## beatle (8 October 2010)

Hi Desjosie, and I agree with your views that with RED moving up then now is about as good a time as any if you haven't got enough RED already - but I'm a bit loathe to recommend it to First Timer if he is just picking up information about the market in a learning phase. Perhaps a small purchase that he can afford to walk away from won't be an issue, of course it depends upon his own financial situation.

On another matter, the trading is just going along the way it left off yesterday, with reasonably good volume (aided by that 1 off 4 mill trade!). It has occurred to me that it would be good if we DON'T get a new substantial shareholder notice from Baker Steel in the next few days - that would mean fresh new insto support maybe, and maybe that insto is the mythical Melb insto previously a possible new entrant into RED. Just my thoughts, but of course if its Baker Steel then that's ok too.


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## Moit (8 October 2010)

Well spoke to soon just cracked 21.5, and fantastic support at 21 c. Beatle the bots are very serious today, in 2750 lots, can you explain this at all??? It wouldn't be an insto trying to accumulating a very large amount. I have heard of this trading activity. I know I'm liking it...


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## desjosie (8 October 2010)

Does anyone want to make a guess where this sp will end today?? surely now red have to put a TH on and make an announcment... or do you think its still at the most 2 weeks away


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## beatle (8 October 2010)

Well Desjosie, I was surprised RED didn't get a ticket the other day, but as Fastbuck made a good point that having it happen on a day when the whole market, and esp the gold stocks, go crazy helped RED's cause. Therefore I hope its another couple of weeks of this trading activity, lol!

One thing I can say with this BOT trading, it makes me feel very confident its not trying to keep the price down, its chomping ever higher each level it gets too. That surely must be a sign to anyone getting nervous that the share price is not going down in a hurry! (I suggest we hold strong and make them take it closer to where its fundamental value is before we get any real selling out!). Who knows, it might be another corporate stalking RED for Mapawa etc, say Kingsgate would be a likely candidate IMO!


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## beatle (8 October 2010)

Eh CEB2, are you responsible for spreading the rumour that RED will be putting out an announcement to the market after close of business today, with an intention to change its name, from RED to GREEN!!!


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## hugh_jarzz (8 October 2010)

beatle said:


> I would be interested in feedback from some of the longer term shareholders in RED, that are not apt to trade for a 0.5 - 1.0 cent gain:
> 
> If you have been a longer term shareholder/follower of RED I'm sure you would be as convinced as me that we are now in the midst of RED's initial re-rating by the market, with an expectation that funding is soon to be announced -the reassurance we got from its ASX release that development of Siana remains on track for gold production in the second quarter of 2011 probably has an unwritten notice and expectation of funding to follow! Therefore, if we are in the midst of that re-rating and it could move right past 30 cents based on fundamental valuation of Siana alone, why would you consider selling your shares at this price?
> 
> ...




Hi Beatle...as a long term holder (4 years plus!) I doubt whether I'll be selling anything, short term. I originally bought at around 10c, bought loads more during the GFC from 4c to 7.5c, then bought more at 15.5c last December. My view may be different from others but I have always believed that despite the less than dynamic management, RED had great assets which were worth multiples of the prevailing share price, and that remains my view, despite this current spike. As you constantly point out, (and which coincides with my view) Siana alone is worth over 35cps, whilst the elephant in the room is, of course, Mapawa. I wouldn't consider selling a share below 60c, but my investment horizons will differ from many others. By the way, trying to analyze algorythmic trading is pointless!


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## ParleVouFrancois (8 October 2010)

@ Beatle's Red to green comment.

Beatle I was under the impression that "the mythical melbourne insto" was Mathew's Capital? Don't they already own approx 20% of RED? Correct me if I'm wrong, I'd love to have another insto buy in a decent stake of 5 - 10% and push the price up to that "mystical" 25 cent mark for me


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## beatle (8 October 2010)

Thanks for your comments Hugh_Jarz, sounds like you have got a stack of RED also, and I fully agree with you that the value to be extracted from BOTH Siana and Mapawa suggests that RED remains at a considerable discount currently. We have actually benefitted by the past demise of RED assets by the market and now its time for some catching up in RED value closer to its fundamental valuation - I believe that any valuation of Siana alone below mid 30's takes a gloomy view of future gold price, with it dropping appreciably in the medium term.
I take some comfort in your comment about the BOTS, except such activity gives me confidence that we will see strength rather than weakness in the case of RED trading!
And very sorry Moit, I think I was posting each time you sent through a post, and I have been so excited watching the screen that I failed to check some of the past posts! Apart from my comments above about BOTS and Hugh_Jarz comment I can't add anything more to the subject, I would love to hear from someone who is closer to it, but I guess its the sort of subject you won't get people openly giving hints away on. 
Moit, it sounds like you live north of the border if you're drinking XXXX - I haven't been up there for a while, I hope to go mid-next year when its cold down south. Do you pay taxes up there, lol? (Sorry, back to watching ParleVousFrancais' shares - lets hope your webpage has a few hits PVF, I will record your Hit Count to see how it goes).


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## First Timer (8 October 2010)

desjosie said:


> Hi! First Timer and welcome.. Like you I am new to the world of Shares and my first bite of the Big (RED) Cherry was in this stock.. To answer your question imo if you are considering buying in, now would be the right time.. with a ann coming soon and some real strange buying (today) I personally cant see this moving much down (maybe Beatle can inform if I may be wrong)
> I was considering buying more at the bottom of the week at 0.16c as previously posted.. but I think I have missed that boat.. Good luck and again welcome..
> 
> And a new high has arrived as I post





Hmmm, in with SDL at the moment so not sure if to use a parcell from them to go to RED. Think i missed the boat


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## beatle (8 October 2010)

Sorry ParleVousFrancais, again I missed your post due to me preparing a post at the time. No I was told that the Melb insto looking to buy into RED as a completely new entrant, were not allowed to buy into spec stocks, and therefore they would only enter once the final funding had been done. Their argument is that they don't want to take any risk on the finance not being achieved, but once its done then they will take a position, usually around 5 - 6% (equating to 50 - 60 million shares), on market, and assume they miss out on the initial stages of the re-valuation but before first gold production. Thats what I was told, by a fairly reliable source, but that was some time back, maybe about 3 months ago. I don't recall what price RED was at the time, but probably within its cycle range of 12 - 16 cents, so I would assume that the current share price is not a big problem for them as they expected some move upwards before they enter. 
Here's hoping they will remain interested to buy in!


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## ParleVouFrancois (8 October 2010)

OT: Beatle I'm very satisfied with the progress of my blog thus far, I only started it on the 4th of October to use as a tool for measuring my progress as a trader, as well as being more open and transparent as a commentator. 

As I've only started it recently I'm already up 100% or so on the year (A VERY good result, the best I've had since I started the share market) but on Jan 1st I'm going to reset my performance and we'll all get to read about how I fare in the markets in real time with all my trades and holdings documented! Should be some entertaining reading I hope . Also because I'm still quite young to be this "into" the share market, people my age don't know anything about shares, and people older than me don't take me seriously, so I'm hoping to help out people my age so they can learn a bit more financial nous, and build a strong track record so people older than me can take me as a serious investor with a consistent methodology and track record, as opposed to some snot nosed kid who got lucky (which still might be true! lolol).

As for hits I've been getting a few more every day up to around 100 - 150 in the last two days, lets hope it maintains it's initial popularity. 

Anyway back onto the MUCH more important watching (or not watching) our RED shares, I have a feeling that 22.5 cents will be the peak today (how I wish it won't be!), which I just can't seem to shake. Which is fine by me, it was stagnating around that 17-19 cents mark, so any more improvements on the SP (a strong close maybe) and you won't hear me complaining.


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## hugh_jarzz (8 October 2010)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> @ Beatle's Red to green comment.
> 
> Beatle I was under the impression that "the mythical melbourne insto" was Mathew's Capital? Don't they already own approx 20% of RED? Correct me if I'm wrong, I'd love to have another insto buy in a decent stake of 5 - 10% and push the price up to that "mystical" 25 cent mark for me




Mathews Capital is Sydney based, unless I'm mistaken. There are, of course, plenty of other Melbourne instos who would may like to become mythical.


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## ParleVouFrancois (8 October 2010)

Hmm the same just happened to me just then, it's good news that another well renowned insto is looking to buy in, we've already got the pedigree of Baker Steel and the ever secretive Mathew's Capital on the register, I wonder who the newcomers will be? All points to a seriously undervalued stock (Baker Steel blow away their index's every year from what I've heard, same with Mathew's Capital). If we aren't riding on their coat tails, we are at least driving behind them in their slip stream!


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## Moit (8 October 2010)

I'm very disappointed in you Beatle. Cant you watch the trading activity, read, and post your threads at the same time. I must have over estimated your ability, lol. I'm certainly north of a boarder, but not that far north. We new south Welshman love a XXXX. Its like mothers milk to us country folk...

I'm a tad curious about this rumor Beatle. Only time will tell i guess... 

And welcome first timer, its great to see you post and possibly invest in RED. I don't think you could go wrong with investing in RED, but in saying that and what Beatle mentioned earlier, you only do what you can afford. I for one think that the current price is still cheap and under valued. Lets say this finance Ann is released and RED goes up by a whopping 40%. Which would take RED'S Sp to 31 cents. Still under valued. Thats just me being slightly biased and of course only hypothetically speaking... I'm sure you'll make your own investment decisions and be the right ones. Good luck

I'm just wondering if there will be a mad dash to the finish line this afternoon, just in preparation for next week???

OK back to my trading platform


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## Hurricane (8 October 2010)

Or a rush to the exits to hit my buy order at 
15c...............................................................


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## anderbond (8 October 2010)

A good afternoon to fellow RED clubhouse members, another very interesting day. Despite a soft close volume has been strong. I take no notice of the soft close as it seems pretty apparent that the manipulators are at work again. I have previously posted that we can expect a finance announcement within two weeks. My instincts (only) are that this might occur next week. That is my reading of the sediment in the bottom of my glass of aged RED lol!
In a nutshell, the sediment says to expect the revised finance announcement to include a combination of debt (DB) and CR (North America).Hopefully I have studied the sediment correctly, but on the other hand at my age one feels the effect of the alcohol more quickly. I am sure most will agree it has been a good week, all things considered. Well, it is 4.30, and I have just about had enough of work. Time to try some of the last bottle of the 2002 Hunter Cab/Merlot. AB


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## Rick64 (8 October 2010)

Well fellow RED holders, since my initial small purchase yesterday @ 20c, which I was very happy with at close, I went and bought more today.
As explained in my first post, I have to sell oher stocks to make a more substantial invesment in RED. This I did, but only 50pc of my total holdings. I did what I imagined was the right thing, that is I put a buy order in @ 20c when RED was @ 21.5, having retreated from 22.5 earlier in he session. two hours later I became impatient and raised my order to 21. After another hour still no joy, so I bit the bullet and finally bought @ 21.5 o make sure I got in.
Imagine my horror when RED didnt rise but proceeded to drop further to end the day at what I purchased for yesterday! I managed to turn a small profit into a large loss in 24hrs
WHERE DID I GO WRONG????????
Any feedback greatly appreciated.
I keep he faith


PS then I see a poster wih a buy at 15c AAAAGGHHH lol


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## ParleVouFrancois (8 October 2010)

Rick64 You'll hate me then, I got in at 12.5 cents just recently, back when Beatle was the only one regularly posting on this thread (I was still doing research so I chucked in 5k, but it ran up to 15 cents before I could expand my position and hasn't been down since). Just plain luck I was reading about RED at the right time. 

Who knows Rick, maybe in a months time you'll be talking to someone who just got into RED and is asking the same question, and he'll wonder how it is you managed to get for ONLY 21.5 cents .

I think what your problem is (nothing personal at all you seem like a good fellow) that you're a bit too emotional about shares. I can see in your post that you've even admitted that your impatience caused you to raise the bid price. I'd recommend reducing your portfolio size to a more comfortable level, and only investing what you can risk to lose, or analyzing the situation and then only putting in one bid for the day. 

My mother has an excellent system of picking shares, she'll pick a price and if it goes away she doesn't care, emotional detachment from shares is one of the best assets you can have (Beatle will no doubt disagree but what I'm arguing is that you shouldn't be illogically attached to any one share, Beatle is attached to RED very much but only because his understanding of the share matches his level of attachment this is a satisfactory situation.)

My personal system is that I'll only invest at a significant discount to what I believe is the true value, so picking a few cents here and there isn't the goal, it's the 20%+ upside I see in the share in the near term. I personally find a share that I like, then just buy on the market. If I like it, it should be already trading under such a discount that a few cents extra in the entry price won't matter in a months time.

If you read my blog I'm actually 100% invested + some money I lent off my mother, but I'm comfortable with this level of investment because I'm quite confident in my research abilities and I'm still young, if it all blew up tomorrow I'd still be alive, and my life wouldn't be that much different (e.g. the share market isn't the difference between me eating, being clothed and having a place to sleep).

Sorry if that was a bit long winded, I just got a new laptop in the mail and this keyboard is a dream to type on! Much better than me old desktops dell keyboard .


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## breaker (8 October 2010)

Rick64
With any trade you must have no emotion.
Have an entry,stop loss and target and stick to it and set it automatically.
After a big rise like today expect a retrace maybe to .185.[support]
I bought half my position at .205[ toe in the water] and will add on any retest of support.


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## jancha (8 October 2010)

Red5 has accepted a compelling, short term US$25million gold
prepay financing package from Sprott Asset Management LP
and Sprott Resource Lending Partnership Toronto, plus an equity
commitment to a concurrent US$25million share placement.
The gold prepay arrangement requires Red5 to deliver a back ended
28,700 ounces of gold (a negligible 3.4% of the ten year life-of-mine
production profile) or the cash equivalent, over 21 month period
commencing October 2011. Red5 will benefit from participation,
by way of further cash receipts, when spot gold trades above
US$1,300 per ounce. The financing remains subject to remaining
due diligence and conditions precedent.
The equity placement syndicate comprising a leading international
Investment Bank, with Petra Capital and Southern Cross Equities in
Australia, has pre-commitments from leading North American and
United Kingdom institutions.
The Sprott group will receive a structuring fee of 9.5 million Red5
shares and will be granted 28 million 3 year options exercisable
at a 35% premium to the placement price.
The funds received will complete the financing for the Siana Gold
mine build and quarantine US$20 million for an accelerated
exploration programme at Mapawa.
Greg Edwards
Managing Director
Red5 will be requesting a trading halt until such time as the equity raising is completed.
Not for distribution or release in the United States or to US Persons
This release is not an offer or an invitation to acquire Red 5 subscription receipts
or shares. In particular, this release does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation
of an offer to buy, any securities in the United States or to, or for the account or benefit
of, any “US person” as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act of 1933
(“Securities Act”) (“US Person”)). The Red 5 subscription receipts and shares to be
offered and sold in the capital raising referred to herein have not been, and will not be
registered under the Securities Act or the securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction
of the United States, and may not be offered or sold in the United States or to any
US Person without being so registered or pursuant to an exemption from registration.


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## mgm1a (8 October 2010)

excellent news. all the big names..Sprott very respected. Let me guess the "large international investment bank" is Merrill Lynch/BoA as they already hold.

Anderbond well done with the whispers....you work in the markets / or work at the right (red) wine bar where they gather !!??

So what were the idiots at Deutche /Ashmore thinking trying to wrangle a new deal at the last minute - surely this will destroy their credibility in the mining sector for some time to come??

All credit to mgmt getting this secured in what was probably the last month...all the DD files will be ready having prepared them for DB.

and look at the $1300 POG on the prepay - we get the upside!

The extra cherry is the funds for Mapawa...this has obviously got them excited more than they have let us know to stump up with $20M


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## mgm1a (8 October 2010)

one or some of the instos have had a word in the boards ear to accelerate Mapawa..with 20 million reason to listen.. this is now challenging the mantra on the website and on the company letterhead to "first develop Siana"

Mapawa has them excited.

--------------------------------------------------------
Rick64..you said it was a small purchase so your loss can't be big? if i can offer suggestions (not advice):
Before you understand a particular stock you could understand your own risk profile - how diversified are you/ what % "paper loss" starts to affect your emotions / your sleep ...is it money that can be tied up for a long period of time without affecting the rent and groceries.Understand where the market sentiment sits. Understand the sector sentiment. Then you get to the stock...you can't do enough research if you a fundamentalist, if you are technical then its probably easier??! Then get to buy only if you see value being captured in the future..if not fully priced today then get to buy in parcels separated by time to ensure the stock is going in right direction. anyway we all do it differently...youve only be in a day so don't panic!
I found book on Jesse Livermore helpful but you really can't do too much reading.


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## fastbuck1 (8 October 2010)

compelling= irresistible lol.....glad they told the other mob to smoke it....


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## desjosie (8 October 2010)

Rick64 said:


> Well fellow RED holders, since my initial small purchase yesterday @ 20c, which I was very happy with at close, I went and bought more today.
> As explained in my first post, I have to sell oher stocks to make a more substantial invesment in RED. This I did, but only 50pc of my total holdings. I did what I imagined was the right thing, that is I put a buy order in @ 20c when RED was @ 21.5, having retreated from 22.5 earlier in he session. two hours later I became impatient and raised my order to 21. After another hour still no joy, so I bit the bullet and finally bought @ 21.5 o make sure I got in.
> Imagine my horror when RED didnt rise but proceeded to drop further to end the day at what I purchased for yesterday! I managed to turn a small profit into a large loss in 24hrs
> WHERE DID I GO WRONG????????
> ...




Where did you go wrong??? we are at a trading halt and if what is expected to happen... happens then you didnt go wrong.. we all can  when it comes to thinking we did the wrong thing... I do it alot..in fact ive been doing it since the last 0.16c call on monday..but as my late father said to me when he was doing the share market.. what you lose on the swings ..you eventually gain on the merry go round.. like everyone says... prepare to gain.. but be very prepared to lose what you can afford to lose..


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## Moit (8 October 2010)

WOW, unbelievable, its here. Well done RED management, we had absolute faith, that you would take the right path, and make the right choices. congrats on SIANNA and MAPAWA. The future truly is GOLDEN !!!


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## andrewk65 (8 October 2010)

Hi all
Beatle, I'm curious how you view this final outcome. Obviously it's good to finally have closure. As mgm1a pointed out on another post the pre pay equates to 37 million, and were paying another couple of million in shares and options to the arranging group. Aporox 40mil for a 25 mil loan?
Also a placement that should add another 170 million odd shares to the register and make someone instantly well off. It's hard to compare to the db offer without all the details. Is this deal fairly normal in this arena, or us it expensive, just curious of others opinions as the dust settles. Do you think this will please the market and trigger a re rating or will they stop and think a while.


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## fastbuck1 (9 October 2010)

obviously this finance deal is better than the last one tabled, some how i think folks are calculating incorrectly...if this deal was to exspensive red would have done a 100% capp raising....and lets face it red could have easly raised all the funds needed....my thinking is the recent sp runup had nothing to do with the finance deal , more likerly to do with mapawa, if there was a leak this is were it would have come from....there must be something disscoverd for them to spend $20 000 000 drilling mapawa......my thoughts only


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## ParleVouFrancois (9 October 2010)

Hey Beatle I was wondering if you could post a new valuation for RED? Already we've got people on the HC forums downramping (hey Smity if you're reading this lolol) saying management are muppets etc, how do you view it? Should we have just gone a 100% CR from shareholders?


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## fastbuck1 (9 October 2010)

i have smity on my ignore list , if i wanted to listen to a clown i would go to the circus.....


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## beatle (9 October 2010)

Good morning all, and wow, what a surprise when I opened up my computer this morning to read this announcement on the finance. 

Based on my first reading of the announcement I'm surprised and reasonably happy although until we know the final details its hard to fully assess what it means, and how to evaluate it. I'm relieved that it included a large debt component, but surprised it was an increased funding amount. 

The timing of the announcement is bad, as I'm due to be traveling for the first couple days of next week and will be out of contact for that time, so I hope that the Trading Halt goes the distance!

The first thoughts and questions in my head are:

1. What is the placement price;

2. What does the outstanding due diligence consist of and how long will it take;

3. Why the need to seek an additional US$10 million, from US$40 million previously to now US$50 million at this stage. Presumably since only the other day the announcement re Siana status confirmed RED was marginally under budget this must relate to more funds for Mapawa but why so much more now;

4. I presume that there will be even more involvement of insto's again, and therefore the share price is likely to be supported quite strongly on opening, but that we may still see "manipulation", with dips and flows upwards based on the motives of those insto's! As Fatsoh has noted, imagine a negative BOT versus a positive BOT! Lol

5. Having already established a model that covers a number of scenarios of debt and equity I have no doubt that the effects of the financing will be share value accretive and the debt component is a real positive, but the extent of that increase from closing price of 20.5 cents can't be evaluated with sufficient accuracy until knowing the critical details and particularly regarding the placement price.

6. The fee charged does not seem excessive if its a combined fee for both the equity and debt components, as on the face of it there appears to be also a small put/call option facility in the gold deliveries (the current high cost of option hedging currently due to high volatility will have also had an impact on the pricing I'm sure). Again the details need to be fully worked through.

As a general observation, I have no reason to think that the announcement is anything but positive for RED share price, as it provides:

1. All the money to develop Siana;

2. Additional fire power to advance Mapawa AND THE OTHER porphyry projects lurking in each of RED's MPSAs - don't forget Madja and the other southern porphyry's that have shown up in geophysical work plus surface sampling;

3. It brings together even more insto's supporting RED with a major investment that should see RED share price move up quickly to its fundamental value over the following months based on Siana alone;

On this point, anyone who argues that it should have been a capital raising from shareholders are seriously deluding themselves! There is no way RED could guarantee such funding plus the time to progress it.

As I have always indicated, RED is now influenced by major backers who will take it to its next leg up, and as I have waited for that to happen now for many years I will wait that extra bit longer. I know we will achieve a price far in excess of what it currently is, and I don't want to ever say I sold too soon to miss out on that re-rating: 20.5 cents is great, but what it goes to will be far greater in my opinion!

Anyone bagging RED management for this funding package clearly demonstrates either their lack of knowledge of debt and capital markets (and probably has a chip on their shoulder with management). Jumping into criticise RED without having the details of the package suggests to me once more that the motivations of critics should be questioned, especially if they don't have any shares in RED! 
How can you come up with such a negative conclusion, without all the details, whilst this funding assures RED of gold production, and enables Mapawa to be more fully explored, for the benefit of all shareholders, not just the insto's that support our share price as much as we want them to support it on our behalf as smaller investors.


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## beatle (9 October 2010)

Hi ParleVousFrancais and Fastbuck, and all.

PVF, in reading your posts yesterday I was impressed that you are a young guy with a very mature and sensible outlook on your share investments, and I could do with a bit more of that unemotional attitude that you referred to. If I can suggest something to you with regard to RED and knockers such as Smity. 

Note that RED's future share price will not be controlled nor severely influenced by the daytraders or small retail shareholders, it will be moved by the big insto's that trade millions of shares at a time. Thus we smaller investors are the only ones that can be influenced, IF we want to be influenced, by people such as Smity. Although I don't know him, I have no doubt he is trying to stir management at RED, possibly he has had a run in with them previously, maybe as an employee or similar. My concern is that he could influence the small guys who read ASF or HC into selling out prior to getting the big return on their investment. He certainly won't be influencing the insto's in how they invest in RED. So keep your objectivity as you have already demonstrated that to me in your past posts and observations (hopefully you will even decide to take your initial exiting price for 50% a tad higher than you have planned, provided the market or gold price doesn't tank in the next few days, and I can't see that happening!).


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## ParleVouFrancois (9 October 2010)

Thanks for the compliments Beatle!

I read that the trading halt is for the next 2 days while the instos determine the price they'll pay for shares in RED. I'm thinking that the short term price will hover maybe 2-3 cents at most above the issue rate to the instos. A quick 10% return on their purchase for a portion of their shares seems to me like the short term thinking of most of them (gotta make the figures for the quarter!). I'm hoping that this deal really is a better one than 100% CR, it'd suck if they got this far with exploration and development only to throw lots of potential away with the final financing deal. I guess it all depends on the price of the placement to instos. Here's to instos using your method of valuing RED and outbidding each other to pay 30 cents a share each .

I've taken my sell order off the table from 25 cents, I'll see what happens to the share price after the trading halt is lifted (it can last until wednesday from what I gather), I'm still somewhat inclined to sell at 25 cents to pay back some of my debt but the 20 million earmarked for Mapawa exploration has me listening. We'll see what happens on Wednesday (or whenever RED reopens).


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## beatle (9 October 2010)

ParleVousFrancais, just to confirm, the Trading Halt can last as long as 2 days (ie 48 hours from it being lodged), so it can last till open on Wednesday, but RED could call a further halt by having the company suspended temporarily. That can last indefinitely.

If you are hoping to repay debt with your first 50% maybe there is sense in you clearing that at the price you see reasonable - I always assume that someone is in the market and can expect to lose up to 100% of their investment in these shares without it affecting their personal situation. I have a fairly significant holding myself but if it turned out to be fully priced at current levels or fell back to 12 cents I wouldn't be affected personally! (Keeping in mind I have been at it for more years than I want to remember!).

In terms of the pricing, I am not expecting a premium to current share price for the placement, its most probably going to be a discount, but in the overall context of what it delivers to RED (and therefore to us shareholders) I am not fussed - and these insto's will not be dumping to make a 10-15-20% or so gain that smaller shareholders would do if it were offered as a SPP or rights issue. 

Also I don't believe for a moment that you will find RED share price move up appreciably once the TH is removed, as I think the insto's will sit back to see what some investors want to do, after all they have no interest in just buying shares at inflated prices if they think the mainstream of smaller investors want to get out at any reduced price! So expect the same sort of games and the rolling around of price in the days after resuming trading.


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## wtang89 (9 October 2010)

Hi all,

First of all Thanks to Beatle and others that have contributed their thoughts/ideas.

I completely agree with beatle in regards to the unreasonable expectation of the financing deal being completely debt. I always expected it to be part debt/part equity and thus (using Beatle' evaluations as a guide) evaluted the Siana project to be in the mid 30s. Although the large amount of options given does worry me a little, but they are only excercisable at 40c (according to my memory). Since most of all have bought in in the 10s, that is easily a 300%+ before the options come into play. 

In regards to beatle's posts about the announcement not having a positive effect on the share price as a result of institutions getting a discount to current prices. I see it from another angle. Assuming the institutions do indeed stand on the sidelines, surely the retail investors like you, i (and many others hopefully) will see this announcement as being of positive value to the company. Thus, people like you and I are unlikely to offload shares until well into the 30c (if not longer). Therefore, by that logic, supply is likely to dry up (unless sp moves up substantially). The institutions (steele) is not likely obviously not dump now. However, what about those retail investors that are sitting on the sidelines? waiting for the financing deal to secure BEFORE buying a stake? These investor, although may be small time, but if there are enough of them, can really drive up the SP (especially if supply dries out). Like P's withdrawal of his 25c order. 
On the otherhand, if Beatle is indeed right (we are almost getting sick of that ), and the SP does indeed drop. I, for one, will be increasing my stake...so if anyone of you wants to offload at sub 20 especially now with finance in place (and Mawa lingering..)...send them this way?.
Just my thoughts. Would love to hear how beatle thinks.


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## beatle (9 October 2010)

Hi Wtang, and interesting comments you make. 

Actually I do want to clarify one point with you regarding my view on the announcement on finance as it stands, without knowing the details that should be most enlightening in the first days of next week - my overall view is that the offer package is quite acceptable, and as it also guarantees development of Siana within the timeframe, I see it as being positive! I didn't expect people reading my comments above as interpreting them as negative at all, but i was just trying to make the point that if the share price doesn't go up immediately RED resumes trading, it shouldn't be interpreted to mean that the finance is unacceptable - more than likely its going to be whatever the insto's want it to be. IF they think that they can rattle the market for a couple of days, even a week, then its possible that the selling of smaller retail clients might give insto's one last opportunity to fill up at these cheaper prices!

Also, the options being granted to the group offering finance - they are to be offered at 35% above the placement price, whatever that might be. eg if placement is 20 cents (and I'm not saying it will be at all!), then the options exercise price is 1.35 x 20 cents = 27 cents (ie cost of exercise will be $0.27 x no. of options exercised within 3 years = $7.56 million to RED upon issuance of shares when exercised).

Additionally, the exit for all the larger shareholders such and Matthews or Baker Steel, etc, is likely to be the offer of a corporate takeover of RED, probably when Mapawa is closer to being confirmed as a genuine gold-copper porphyry. I don't believe that the insto's will be putting any significant selling in place for a long time, certainly not before complete re-value has been added to RED beyond mid 30 cents and likely upwards when in premium at time of gold production!


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## wtang89 (10 October 2010)

Thanks Beatle,

I just reread the financing report and saw my mistake about the 40c (dunno where i got that figure from). BUt you are quite right, and i agree with you about the role that institutional buying will play on the stock price. I was merely expressing my opinion in regards to retail investors. I guess the big question with the options is how the price is determined (is it current market, 3 month average? or what)...because the way that price is determined will be very closely related to how the red will open on wednesday. On another note, part of me actually wants to see red fall below 20c....one last opportunity for me to fill up also ^^.


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## ParleVouFrancois (10 October 2010)

Hmm, I'm thinking the reports of RED's death are vastly exaggerated on HC. The mine will be going ahead and on time, Mapawa is getting lots of exploration funds assigned to it, and we've finally got the long awaited finance in place.

Sprott asset management seems to me to be a very professionally run firm, with large amounts of funds under management, and no doubt they would have done due diligence on the Siana mine which produced the goods economically (otherwise why would they invest?).

I guess they'll always be people who say that companies are going bankrupt or that they are nothing but "big punts" without actually researching data.


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## fastbuck1 (10 October 2010)

what also needs to be concidered and is quite possible red will produce a modest 30 000 oz for the second half of 2011 @$1350 per oz x $1000 = net profit of$30 000 000 this makes the loan look like peanuts, and they could produce 35-40 000 oz for the first six month of production, makes it look even better....


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## beatle (10 October 2010)

Hi Fastbuck, your point is absolutely on the money! That in fact RED will soon be producing gold, at considerable profit! (But of course thats what the modelling has been telling us all along, that RED is immensely discounted regardless of whether its some more equity raised, even at 20.5 cents, based on that production from Siana). 

I've been thinking more about the additional funds that RED are getting as part of this funding package. I can see they are likely to vastly accelerate the exploration of Mapawa at the same time of Siana developing. There's going to be a considerable increase in the level of news flow (finally!), and my feeling is that RED will develop a market profile that belies its past failures and laggard tag! Any talk about it being a non-performer will be history with gold production and a huge exploration budget. 

Ongoing news of Mapawa exploration will be a major contributor to how RED will be considered by the exploration industry, not just in Philippines, but internationally by major players, as well as in the investment market. That link you provided Fastbuck proves that the exploration industry is now already watching Mapawa closely, and with major corporates obviously sitting tight and quietly doing their sums about how much RED is worth - the involvement of insto's with large licks of shares makes RED an interesting corporate play, as the ideal exit strategy is for these insto's to facilitate such a takeover/merger, thus heightening the potential value of RED in the eyes of the market!

My advice to any small shareholders is don't get suckered into thinking that the immediate share price of RED will be the future of your investment return, its just the start, there is a considerable amount of time and activity to occur that will finally allow us to sit back as comfortable shareholders in a strong, emerging gold producer, much like the success that Medusa has already achieved. 

Don't let any knockers and doubters of RED cause you to miss out on that exciting upside, that in fact we have all been waiting for and expecting in recent years. Those doubts are a fading and soon be a passing sideline to RED's exciting future IMO!


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## Moit (10 October 2010)

Hi all, hope everyones been keeping well, in anticipation of Wednesday, if not before...

Lets look at the big picture here without going into too much detail...

The Siana Gold project in the Phillis, has now got a finance package in place, a COMPELLING, short term, $25 million gold prepay finance package. THE SIANA GOLD PROJECT IS NOW GOING AHEAD, FROM EXPLORER TO PRODUCER !!!

Now lets look at MAPAWA, there has been a further $20 million, quarantined, for an accelerated exploration programme at MAPAWA. What have they discovered??? What is under that RED earth??? Is Mapawa the next Siana. Yes, but times it by TEN. When are they going to scratch the earth at Mapawa, who knows, but as Beatle said, where going to start getting info fairly rapidly as we are starting to have more projects on the go, accelerated projects... Just my thoughts...

Regards Moit


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## beatle (11 October 2010)

Good evening Moit and fellow RED club members,
I will be traveling and out of contact for the majority of the next couple of days so i hope that RED has a full 2 days TH before putting out any future statements regarding the financing arrangement. So please don't interpret my absence as being anything out of the ordinary, I remain fully committed to posting on RED wheneven I feel i have something to add.

One final word regarding the opening price for RED once it resumes trading, whenever that is - I believe that the insto's will be trying to lighten the activity for the immediate days after resuming trading, due to the possibility that some weak holders may want to drop shares, and they will be most happy to pick up any loose stock. If that tactic does not bear much fruit, then expect to see the price being forced higher by any insto that might want to join the growing crowd. IF YOU ARE A COMMITTED long termer in RED I suggest its a danger to think that you will pick your shares back up easily at a cheaper price if you drop them now - I wouldn't want to be caught short, as once the finance is set in stone, then its only a matter of when the insto's want to make their moves before RED is re-rated upwards in line with the fundamental value. 

Good luck to all RED holders. If I can borrow a well worn phrase which is my own personal investment strategy for RED: sit tight and "keep the bas***ds honest"!


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## anderbond (11 October 2010)

Good morning RED clubhouse members, I note Sprott were formerly strong supporters of MML, but appear to have sold down or exited that position a little while back. So they are well versed in the Phils. The point is that they have already made a packet from MML, and are clearly looking to repeat this with RED. It would seem to me that as time goes along we might see RED being listed elsewhere, Toronto for example, and maybe London too. Timing may be after gold production gets going. If this occurs then we will see further strong support for RED as overseas investors are not as tardy about the Phils as many Australian investors appear to be. AB


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## ParleVouFrancois (11 October 2010)

Hi Anderbond, I've noticed that the ASX significantly undervalues South African mining assets, are there any other geopolitical areas that are discounted illogically? 

I've done lots of research on the political arena of South Africa (got a few shares based primarily in SA, makes it easier to stay calm when people are sh#tting themselves at the prospect of nationalization, even though the chance of it happening is about 1%, and even then they'd have to pay compensation for it). 

Does the ASX just undervalue any companies based in foreign lands (too much effort to research??) or are there other countries that I should take a look at for discounted assets (e.g. the discount far outweighs any real political risk).


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## fatsoh (11 October 2010)

hi parle

this piece from 'lateline business' in august.................

BRIGID GLANVILLE: So does the company have an image problem? It seems to be - shouldn't you be at this point now where Kingsgate should be really taking off?

GAVIN THOMAS: Our franchise is the Australian Stock Exchange, and for better or for worse, Australian institutional investors don't really give a lot of credit to Australians operating offshore. 

They bring a lot of political risk in, whether it be real or not. For example, the TSX has far differing views on Canadian companies operating offshore. We've shown that we're producing fantastic results, and in total returns over the last decade on the ASX 200, we are the third-best performer


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## Hurricane (11 October 2010)

Yep it's funny that you talk about SA, GDO is another one of my small specs who I see big potential in (like RED). They look great on paper but the market here seems to pass them over for the home based miners with smaller resource bases. They are already in production, are also in the final stages of a finance deal and have just doubled their resource base (announced today) yet the market really hasn't moved much....


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## ParleVouFrancois (11 October 2010)

OT: Mr Hurricane I've just written up a review of GDO on my blog (sig for URL)! Nice timing . I also hold GDO, found them after doing some research into Baker Steel (someone mentioned they were excellent fund managers, Beatle I think, so I looked into it), and found GDO! Quite severely undervalued by the market as well (the "South African" effect, also taking place on CCC if you've got some time to look into it).

RED still in a halt, I'm still not quite sure what to make of the recent finance deal, I have a feeling that it's quite positive (WE HAVE A MINE! ) but I'm not sure that the market will see it that way... I guess it's just me being a negative nancy, I think I'll hold on for a month or two longer and see what happens.


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## anderbond (11 October 2010)

Hi PVF, sorry about the delay in responding. I am a worker so have to concentrate on that most of the time. I cannot really answer your question as I tend to concentrate on the Phils where I have a small understanding. I think however that it is fair to say that many small Aus resource stocks operating overseas are heavily discounted due to perceived geo-political risk but I am not sure that it can be regarded as country specific. In the Phils, there is clearly a sense of "terrorist" risk, especially southern Mindanao, and local land owner/community risk, on top of the red tape (bureaucracy) and the inevitable "commissions" that apply in getting things done. The other aspect is of course whether land or tenement ownership can occur, together with foreign company restrictions.Then of course the usual things like infrastructure requirements, capex and so on. I suppose many investors weigh it all up then shy away towards more certainty. I am not sure how you would weigh up the actual risks versus a discounted share price as this might also depend on the "marketing" output of a company. To give an example, RED has not been particularly brilliant in the feed of information to investors imo whereas I believe that MML has done this very well. At the same stage of development, if my memory serves me correctly, MML was at a considerably higher price than where RED is today. That does not mean that management is not experienced or not good,but that a more conservative approach is being taken. Of course as a shareholder I am always wanting to hear good news that might propel the SP higher. So I think there is a heck of a lot more to it than specific country geo political risks. But in saying that, others will disagree I am sure. Good luck with RED. AB


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## Atomic (11 October 2010)

hey PEOPLE ,
Q. What is PHILS and 

Please this is the red 5 thread not a debate about OS politics and war mongerring. 
PVF thank you for your conjecture but keep it to the topic , with useful facts.

and get a life , jeez your on here more than me !!! lol


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## ParleVouFrancois (11 October 2010)

Atomic you say stick to discussions of RED, then you flame me, oh okay. 

Phils is quite obviously short for Philippines. 

I do believe that the current political situation in the Philippines IS relevant to RED, if the risk of terrorist attack was high, you'd want to know about it before risking your hard earned? I just wanted to learn a bit more from AB who appears to know more than I do about the Philippines.

"Get a life" so what should I be doing right now? Going out and drinking? If I didn't analyze shares I'd be working a 40 hour a week job in some depressing shop to save for uni. Sounds very life-like.

OT: Atomic you type like a 12 year old. 

Apologies if you actually are 12.


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## Ding (12 October 2010)

Mr Atomic...... You appear to have all of your foot stuck in your mouth....... 

Mr PVF...... i am keen to read Beatle and your posts here and all others for that matter who can and will and some knowledge to the conversation.

cheers to all. this has been a great thread.


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## Joe Blow (12 October 2010)

Lets not let this thread descend into personal attacks and petty squabbling. It has been quite a constructive thread up until the last few posts.

Please stay on topic and do not attack or insult other thread participants.

Thanks!


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## beatle (12 October 2010)

Hi All, and good to see that RED remains in a TH, as I was concerned it might announce something relevant whilst I was out of contact, now I will be around from time to time over the next couple of days.

Wow, the thread has got a few more posters, and that is encouraging although I agree that we should be trying to keep RED as the main topic of the thread, after all this is our RED Club! (Lol!).

I have read all the previous posts, and related to ParleVousFrancais last question regarding geopolitical risk of the Philippines and RED, and how the market treats it. I will make some general and specific comments as it might help your understanding of how RED has evolved, as I have observed and understand it (you may disagree with me or not!):

I agree with Anderbond, that in the case of the Philippines, there has always been a concern about country risk, and that has resulted in a discount by the ASX market for most companies operating there, EXCEPT that some exploration companies have been able to use the perception of "elephant potential" for the country to market their particular projects - I do recall back about 12 years ago and prior to the debacle in Indonesia related to the Busang project, how many explorers, in particular Canadian but also some Australians, moved into Philippines in a big way, hoping to find the next Busang in the same sort of geological environment as Indonesia, but plagued by the administrative delays in the Phils in getting legitimate title (primarily as MPSA'a). Once Busang was uncovered as a scam the whole of the region was painted with the same brush, as a region to be beware of, and aided by the administrative delays in Phils and therefore with limited positive results from high exploration costs the market got a bad impression of Phils. Prior to that Indonesia had developed some respectability by some very significant exploration projects being turned into mines, such as Batu Hijau, Mt Muro, etc but in the case of Philippines nothing of significance was developed despite some very large resources being delineated, the biggest being Tampakan. (Separately the extremely large high grade epithermal gold of Diwalwal was being mined by co-operatives in an environmental disaster, but not by international miners, more by locals in such co-ops). And the small Lafayette disaster polymetallic project in Rapu Rapu didn't help matters for new miners in the country with its failure basically related to the environmental issues and small resources. 

Come today, how things have changed, we have got MML now operating the old historic Co-o mine, after a merging with a small Australian group, and CGA eventually developed the Masbate project which had been pursued as a development on a smaller scale by an offshoot of a UK based group. Both of those projects have demonstrated that mining in Phils is very possible, despite the general hindrances that affect start ups related to title, and environmental issues, assumed related to PHils. Both those projects lie in areas with a mining mentality (similar to Siana) and provide RED shareholders with the same assurance that mining can occur once the approvals are received. In the meantime Didipio (now with Oceanic) was being looked at as a big gold/copper play but it has been a long hard road to production for that company, but getting closer to an end game on that project finally! it has been affected by the local community as part of the issue, unlike Co-o, and Siana. 

AND now we have got RED, a small Perth based explorer which acquired the Siana MPSA back in about 2002 (not sure if the year is correct and I don't have the time to confirm that now), and has been through all sorts of dilemmas related to finally completing the feasibility study. It has been a long hard and rocky road, as while the project was previously a mining operation by Suricon in the late 80's, it had no resource to speak of at the time of RED acquiring it, but with the potential to develop into the JORC compliant resource/reserves we have today. BUT that timeframe for completing the technical studies was not delivered, as RED management early on promised much and under-delivered, time and time again, the most notable issues were the resources estimation of Siana, both the open pit resources, then subsequently the underground resources that were required as part of the Soc Gen financial offer made a few years ago. And the granting of MPSA title for Mapawa, oh how that became a promise never delivered. Then there was also the Anglo deal that promised much, esp whilst Boyongan exploration project was humming along up the road, but ended with nothing much to talk about at all - although it could become a considerable new gold porphyry development in time via Philex. All these past events have heavily affected the credibility of RED management to ever conclude all the issues and get a project ever into development. 

That past history has been the primary reason for the huge discount of RED share price, not only geopolitical risk (but it had a hand in making things more difficult of course). It is the reason why RED has been much more severely discounted than MML - but even with MML early on you must realise that MML had its own problems, with its own project that was subject to litigation and only when MML took on the neighbouring Co-o project did it resurrect itself as well. 

Now times have changed for the better, for RED now has a completed feasibility study, all the govt approvals as necessary to develop the project, from mining through to environmental, to community etc. That feasibility study, completed by industry competent professionals, highly regarded in the mining industy confirms that Siana is a very attractive mining project, with considerable economic value based on the US$800/oz optimisation study done earlier on, with cash costs around US$350/oz, for more than 850,000 ozs, plus some bonus silver. And now we are on the brink of getting the final financial package the provides the cash to unlock the gold! 

Completely separate up the road, we now know that RED has got the goods in the LSY prospect to a potential gold-copper porphyry of significant grade and tonnage. 

I suggest that with the production start up at Siana the whole profile of RED will change for the better, that will finally lay to rest once and for all the chequered past and develop the company as a respectable mid-tier gold mining company, based in the Philippines. And with a considerable swag of major insto's as shareholders.

Anderbonds comments about Sprott Asset Mgt are very interesting, with their prior involvement with MML - do you think they will assume to make a quick buck out of RED, or possibly pursue the chance for developing the next MML - I think the latter!

I'm excited about the future for RED, as a reasonably big shareholder (for a retail investor), enough to blow my trumpet long and hard, and Atomic I have no qualms getting on the RED thread lots of times when I'm able to, to blow loud and with complete conviction!

I also agree with Fatsohs analogy, re Kingsgate in Thailand, that RED has the potential to build itself intoa respectable Phils miner, and it has got MML and CGA to show the way! 

What I do know, is that whatever price RED re-opens up on resumption, its not going to be a high as it will finally be once the insto's are ready to move it up! We are just invited to go along for the ride, if you decide to get off early, then at least you have experienced some of the action, but I really think you should think longer term to really take advantage of what the insto's will deliver us in due course! Thats my view anyway.


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## Moit (12 October 2010)

Hi Beatle, and welcome back, well for the time being anyway. A very informative and interesting post. You certainly have an extremely vast knowledge of the past and present operations in the Phils..

Just a query. I'm wondering why the market hasn't had any reaction to this final financing package thus far. Red have been in pre-open status for 2 full days, and if anything has had a negative effect on current buys and sells. I know there isn't enough information out as we speak and we are still waiting on the actual announcement and the equity raising component of the package... I just presumed there would have been a slightly more positive reaction being in a pre-open status...

Just my thoughts and if anyone can shed a bit more light on the subject, please do as this is a nerve wracking wait...

Regards Moit...


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## KurwaJegoMac (12 October 2010)

Moit said:


> Just a query. I'm wondering why the market hasn't had any reaction to this final financing package thus far. Red have been in pre-open status for 2 full days, and if anything has had a negative effect on current buys and sells. I know there isn't enough information out as we speak and we are still waiting on the actual announcement and the equity raising component of the package... I just presumed there would have been a slightly more positive reaction being in a pre-open status...
> 
> Just my thoughts and if anyone can shed a bit more light on the subject, please do as this is a nerve wracking wait...
> 
> Regards Moit...




Moit, RED has been in a Trading Halt since October 8th and it cant be traded. So there has been no determinable impact on current buy and sells and there won't be until it resumes trading.


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## ParleVouFrancois (12 October 2010)

RE: moit, I'm pretty sure that pre-open status means that it's in a trading halt, and without the full details of the RED financing deal announced, it'd be hard to pin down an exact value from which to buy some RED shares (hence the drying up of sellers and buys leaving their orders in the market), this is my opinion only though.


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## beatle (12 October 2010)

Hi Moit, my view is that the pre-open bids/offers are only a mask of whats behind the views of players placing such bids/offers in any company thats been in a Trading Halt, and you never know the real intentions or motivations of those that have put those bids/offers on the pre-open board. For a start are they traders, small investors or bigger insto's?

I personally don't have much concern if RED trades sideways, down or up on resumption, I will not trade out a single share although I might be encouraged to buy more shares if the price is down a tad. My firm belief remains that a move upwards will follow when the insto's want it up (thus will give your trend analysis more confidence of it moving higher), and its unlikely we will be able to get current low prices again when the insto's push the button! The price may well continue to have wild swings with both ups and downs along the way to test our intentions and resolve, but I believe that overall movement will be up.

If I 'm able to watch the open on resumption of course I will watch it, but I have no feelings of nerves at all as I believe the opening price is not crucial to where RED is ultimately heading! What I am more excited about is, that day by day we are moving closer to first gold production, that will be positive for the share price.


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## Buckfont (12 October 2010)

Moit said:


> Hi Beatle, and welcome back, well for the time being anyway. A very informative and interesting post. You certainly have an extremely vast knowledge of the past and present operations in the Phils..
> 
> Just a query. I'm wondering why the market hasn't had any reaction to this final financing package thus far. Red have been in pre-open status for 2 full days, and if anything has had a negative effect on current buys and sells. I know there isn't enough information out as we speak and we are still waiting on the actual announcement and the equity raising component of the package... I just presumed there would have been a slightly more positive reaction being in a pre-open status...
> 
> ...




Moit as with all companies if they are in a trading halt nothing can happen.

No trades hence you comment on negative effect on current buys and sells.

Until they are reinstated which presumably is tomorrow, we all have to bide our time.

I bought in last week at 0.16c and 0.20c. through this forum and elsewhere. 

I take my hat off to you beatle for all your input here and to your unwavering belief in RED. I look forward to everyones input each day.


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## Moit (12 October 2010)

Thanks for your opinion guys, thats what i was refuring to, the drying up of sellers and buyers when i presumed that you could still place bids on a pre open status. 

And Beatle, thanks for your input i too won't be selling any shares what so ever. I am holding tight to my parcel through the think and thin and ups and downs... 

I just hope tomorrow is positive as this has been such an anticipated ann we have all been waiting for.

Maybe i should just stop thinking and just see what tomorrow brings LOL


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## beatle (12 October 2010)

I'm sure all the RED club members were watching the screens for the much awaited announcement this afternoon, but nothing yet! At the very least if RED don't put out the announcement prior to start of market tomorrow morning RED will seek a temporary suspension from trading until the finalisation of the funding package. Maybe behind the scenes they are now, late night, preparing an announcement that allows a resumption of trading. 

If RED do go into a temporary suspension, be aware that ALL previous Bids/Offers will be removed from the screen, so it starts afresh once the suspension is removed! In the case of a Trading Halt this does not apply.

Go RED (UPPPP!)


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## beatle (13 October 2010)

Well the wait will continue that bit longer with RED requesting a voluntary suspension to complete the funding, which has been over-subscribed. 

The fact that the funding has been over-subscribed confirms that:
1. The money WILL be be received,
2. The Siana gold project WILL be completed, 
3. RED WILL be a gold producer in the first half of 2011,
4. RED WILL be re-rated in the market.

Even if the placement price is at a discount to last market price, the shares are unlikely to come onto the market so quickly at this cheap price. So my view is don't throw the baby out with bath water, if RED placement price is low, don't sell your shares in protest, realise you are going to get a piggy-back up to a higher price soon enough! Make any buyer of your shares have to pay a premium for them, not a discount!


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## anderbond (13 October 2010)

Hi RED clubhouse members, I wanted to draw your attention to an announcement dated October 5, from Rugby Mining Limited, a TSX listed coy."........the company is pleased to report that it has..........entered into agreements with Pelican Resources Limited, an ASX listed company,and All-Acacia Resources Inc, a Philippine company, over the Mabuhay Gold Project in the Philippines granting it the right to earn up to an 80% interest in the project. The Mabuhay Gold project.......is located 12 kilometres south of Surigao City..........Mabuhay is situated within a 15 kilometre radius of numerous gold and gold/copper porphyry deposits and mines, which include Philex Gold Inc's Boyongan and Bayugo gold/copper porphyry deposits, Manila Mining Corporation's previously operating gold/copper mines and Red5 Limited's Siana gold deposit. Recently Red5 announced a new gold/copper porphyry  discovery at Mapawa which is positioned directly adjacent to Mabuhay's norther border. Paul Joyce, the Company's President and CEO stated"...............We believe the Mapawa porphyry discovery is part of a much larger system that we interpret might trend onto our Mabuhay Project.
Guys, there is more in the report so I suggest you look it up and have a read. The website is www.rugbymining.com
IMO this further underscores that Mapawa will be the catalyst that really drives the SP. If the potential is as big as being suggested, then we may well see a joint venture for development occur. 
As a further note, I see that RED has requested suspension while the "heavily oversubscribed" CR is finalised. AB


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## Moit (13 October 2010)

Hi Beatle, Ive never experienced a trading halt before. Ive bought and sold so many stocks, and pocketed cash along the way. But this experience is all new to me and as i have finally found a company that i truly believe in, I'm curious...

So a suspended quotation. I know you don't know how long a piece of string is, but how long could this go on for. I'm Bord without my RED...

Regaurds Moit


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## First Timer (13 October 2010)

beatle said:


> Well the wait will continue that bit longer with RED requesting a voluntary suspension to complete the funding, which has been over-subscribed.
> 
> The fact that the funding has been over-subscribed confirms that:
> 1. The money WILL be be received,
> ...




Question, what does over subscribed mean Also I'm the same boat as Moit in reguard to what happens after trading halt before? I'm looking to get into RED once it resumes so any opions are welcome.


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## Huitzii (13 October 2010)

First Timer said:


> Question, what does over subscribed mean Also I'm the same boat as Moit in reguard to what happens after trading halt before? I'm looking to get into RED once it resumes so any opions are welcome.




Ive been trading in and out of red for the last few months now and while doing so enjoying this thread.
I had a gut feeling that it was going to go into suspension so in pre-open this morning I put in a 30K order before the announcement was made,so im pretty happy that all orders cant be changed until the suspension is lifted, it looks like I will be filled mostly of under .205  
RED will get insto backing from this point I believe so put your seat belt on nice and tight and enjoy the ride people.
Cheers Huitzii
DYOR


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## ParleVouFrancois (13 October 2010)

Are you sure you can't change your orders? I had a sell order in for 25 cents before the halt, and I removed it, I double checked and can't seem to see it at all? Perhaps I misunderstood you.


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## beatle (13 October 2010)

Hi First Timer,
The funding package as you might be aware is a combination of a debt facility, and an equity raising (ie a purchase of new shares in RED issued by RED to some institutional and/or sophisticated investors). The terms of that placement are apparently being negotiated at this time according to the announcement. That placement has been oversubscribed, ie more shares have been asked for by those investors, than there are shares available to be issued. 

Being over-subscribed is a positive thing as if implies there are investors interested to take up the shares, and that allows RED to get the money it seeks for the purposes related to its gold development at Siana. 

If the share issue was under-subscribed we would be concerned, as it would mean the gold development would be in jeopardy, but that is clearly not the case for this equity issue with RED. Some would argue that any issue that is over-subscribed is related to the pricing, and its possible that the placement price may be quite low, thus parties can buy the shares through this issue at a discount to the quoted market price - we will find out soon what that price is prior to RED resuming its trading in the market. If the placement price is at a considerable discount to market some would argue that the market price is too high, but I suggest that no right minded investor will dump even discounted placement priced RED shares knowing the outlook for RED, with its value calculated for Siana in the 30+ cent range.


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## Huitzii (13 October 2010)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> Are you sure you can't change your orders? I had a sell order in for 25 cents before the halt, and I removed it, I double checked and can't seem to see it at all? Perhaps I misunderstood you.




There arent any sell orders for .250 on the list.
Once its into suspension it is locked until reopen this im 99% sure of.
If it was still in trading halt you can change your order though I believe.
If this isnt the case can someone please tell me how it works?
Cheers Huitzii


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## beatle (13 October 2010)

Hi Huitzii, not sure exactly what question you are asking, but I can confirm with you what will happen with RED, now that its in voluntary suspension. Upon its request to be re-instated, which could happen fairly soon once it has completed and announced its funding arrangement, then the market for RED will be erased as to what you may now see on the screen, and it starts afresh, with all new Bids and Offers being taken only - anything you see now is old history and will not be placed on the new market for RED once it resumes trading.
I hope that clarifies your question?


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## Huitzii (13 October 2010)

beatle said:


> Hi Huitzii, not sure exactly what question you are asking, but I can confirm with you what will happen with RED, now that its in voluntary suspension. Upon its request to be re-instated, which could happen fairly soon once it has completed and announced its funding arrangement, then the market for RED will be erased as to what you may now see on the screen, and it starts afresh, with all new Bids and Offers being taken only - anything you see now is old history and will not be placed on the new market for RED once it resumes trading.
> I hope that clarifies your question?




WOW are you saying it will be like an online auction on reopen?
Cheers Huitzii


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## beatle (13 October 2010)

Upon resumption of trading in RED it will be the re-commencement of Bids/Offers being taken, as is the normal basis for all shares on the ASX, except that RED will have none of the past Bids/Offers included, so if you had a previous order in you may have to reinvoke the request, depending upon your arrangements with your broker.


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## First Timer (13 October 2010)

What sort of pricing are we likely to see when it opens up again? and for all those long term investors what is the price people think RED will go to in the future? considering al goes well for its projects.


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## jancha (13 October 2010)

beatle said:


> Upon resumption of trading in RED it will be the re-commencement of Bids/Offers being taken, as is the normal basis for all shares on the ASX, except that RED will have none of the past Bids/Offers included, so if you had a previous order in you may have to reinvoke the request, depending upon your arrangements with your broker.




So in regard to an unfilled order & with what your saying that i would have to pay an additional brokerage fee if i wish to complete the order? Why should i have to pay double brokerage?


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## beatle (13 October 2010)

Thats an interesting question Jancha, I guess it depends upon your exact arrangements with your broker, but there may be some way to negotiate a deal with the broker - its a rare occurrence and I've not been involved in such a situation previously.

First Timer - you are asking a $64 question, but it will depend a bit on what the insto's want to do - either to let it find its way with small retail clients putting in a short term market, or if the insto's want to show a bit of leadership and give us all what we want - a move up in price.

But the longer term price in my view is UP!!! The insto's are not buying shares today for a quick profit, they are in RED for a big ride upwards I believe.


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## anderbond (13 October 2010)

Hi Beatle, you may have missed my post re Rugby. Would be interested in your thoughts on the activity adjacent to Mapawa and the possibility of a joint venture? Also, what are the odds that the CR is at a premium? AB


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## beatle (13 October 2010)

Hi Anderbond, its an interesting post you made re Rugby and the adjacency of its recently acquired Mabuhay to RED's Mapawa project. Seems as though there may be lots of exciting news ahead for both, and hopefully Mapawa finally gets the recognition that we have long waited for. But as for a JV, I guess we will need to see how things pan out for both projects first, my overall view has been that Mapawa would be an interesting supplement to a major development covering Philex's Boyongan/Bayugo projects - if that were to happen then I could see RED being a major player in the district, not just producing around 100,000 ozs annually from Siana but a considerably larger amount of gold and copper from a joint venture with Philex. If Mabuhay was included then it would seem a logical fit if its an extension of the same Mapawa LSY lode, but I really don't have any information about its exact location with respect to LSY. Its a shame that RED didn't do a deal with Pelican, since its also a WA based ASX listed company and the deal done with Rugby seems fairly soft with minimal money upfront.

As for the placement price being at a premium to last price (of 20.5 cents) well I'm not holding my breath, my expectation will be that its in the 15 - 20%discount price range 16.5 - 17.5 cents. And of course if its below that range then it will be touch and go whether its above the 15% level - in which case the final tranche will be subject to shareholder approval at a general meeting, but I don't think the company nor insto's would want that happen, so I'm presuming the pricing to be above that level required for shareholder approval.

Whatever the price of the placement, and accepting its at a discount, I still believe RED will not be long before it starts making its move towards the Siana valuation. Who knows, we might even see a Mapawa drilling update soon after to make the news a bit more positive after the dilutionary affects of the placement.


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## anderbond (13 October 2010)

Thanks Beatle. I too had the same thought as to why RED did not get involved in the adjacent tenement, as I am sure they would have been well aware of potential and the situation with Pelican Resources. As you say, it seems like a relatively soft play that Rugby has picked up. In terms of RED's involvement in the overall district, I feel that this will be fairly assured given the acumen and strength of the major backers that have become involved. Just how far this goes has to be seen, but IMO the Mapawa find is the major reason that the larger institutions have become involved. Siana may simply turn out to be the cash cow to help fund the ongoing development of Mapawa. To me it makes sense that before they go too far forward with Mapawa that they line up some major "friendly" backers. This hopefully means that if a predator appears looking for a bargain buy as the Mapawa drilling progresses, then there are sufficient "friendly" shareholders to ward off such a challenge. That is my thinking anyway. Others may disagree. By the way, my old RED sediment seems to have worked reasonably well so far in my readings. Not wanting to blow my trumpet though.   I must say I am encouraged too by the appearance of a lot of new objective posters on this thread. So far we have more or less avoided all the twisted postings that appear in such numbers on HC. I see there is a lot of abusive criticism of management appearing yet again there. I might be old fashioned, but cannot see the reason why one would bother to post such stuff. If you don't have confidence in the management, why bother being involved? Personally, I have absolutely every confidence in the current management of RED as they finally bring to fruition a project that has encountered many hurdles along the way. There is very strong experience at work for all shareholders in the management team IMO. JUst have a look at the backgrounds of the "team". AB


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## beatle (13 October 2010)

Anderbond you make many points that I agree with, and I agree with you 100% that your call with the RED sediment has been spot on. I value your comments and predictions, and clearly your 3rd party source (which may not be the RED sediment) seems to know a fair amount with what's going on! (I only hope your question to me about placement price at a premium was a prediction of things to come, but it would be a (pleasant) surprise to me!).

As far as the new posters that are appearing, it is very positive. Interestingly, about 3 months ago when talking with CJ he told me that the majority of selling at that time had been at the expense of loss of smaller shareholders, and being replaced by larger shareholders - I wonder if the last couple of weeks positive share price movement has a turnaround with increasing numbers of smaller shareholders again. I hope so as it provides a bit more variety in the shareholder group.

With regard to Mapawa, I am very excited to think that the news flow could be increased appreciably with acceleration of exploration effort, and I do hope that they can increase the level of activity in the other parts of both Mapawa and Siana MPSA's soon to demonstrate to the market that RED's exploration portfolio is very exciting and worthy of considerable blue sky value - any corporate activity should always be defended by ensuring the market is well informed of the potential of the geological assets held, so that full value is extracted at the time of a possible takeover. That is also why I would prefer a spread of insto's and smaller shareholders, to ensure that there is not so much control in the hands of Matthews, Baker Steel etc. I don't have a problem with a takeover play, but only if it gets full value for us all.

Now we have another wait, I hope its not long, I want to get this thing started with open dialogue between RED and its shareholders and the general market once again!


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## andrewk65 (13 October 2010)

Hi beatle.
I'm curious, is there a simple explanation of how you calculate your valuations, or is it possible you could email me anything that might point me in the right direction. I've said previously that this is one of the first stocks I've held for fundamental reasons rather than just charting, and it's quite relaxing to be able to ignore the technical signs of doom when one is confident in the fundamentals. One sime calc I Tried was the resource of approx 800,000 oz x pog 1350, less cost per oz 350 ish, less 37million prepay. Gives a figure around 7-800 mil I believe. This indicates to me that 700mil ish of gold is reflected by market cap 200mil - cheap? Obviously you use a more complex way to calc value? I'd be interested for future reference in other companies. How does the valuation change with respect to debt or equity of finance. I thought sp changed usually due to lower eps when dilution takes place but I would have thought that with a fixed resource the debt or equity would have same effect- ie debt reduces earnings, equity reduces eps. Please excuse my ignorance but I would like to learn more about fundamental analysis and valuing if possible
Thanks
Andrewk65


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## ParleVouFrancois (14 October 2010)

Hi Andrew, while not being as knowledgable about RED as Beatle is, I do know a thing or two about fundamental investing. The debt financing tends to be a "better" deal if you can pay off the debt with the assets you buy, e.g. the assets earn a higher % than the loan is charged in interest. 

Using round numbers and a very simplified example:

How this works for a gold miner is that it makes say 20% margin on it's mine. That is, it needs say 1 million dollars to make a mine, that makes 200,000 a year. The loan charges say 8% per year on the balance. Lets also assume that there is currently 1 million shares on issue at 1 dollar.  

Each scenario is 1 year after the either debt financing or debt issue.

Scenario 1: 
The 1 million is debt funded.
Thus, 200,000 in profits is made, 80,000 in interest is charged, the 1 million shares have earnings per share of 12 cents each.

Scenario 2:
The 1 million is equity funded.
Thus, 200,000 in profits is made but there are 2 million in shares, thus the 2 million shares have earnings per share of 10 cents each.

(The numbers might be wrong in the above example, please check over them and correct, I've been awake for 18 hours atm)

Thus, if you loan from the bank at a lower rate then the return of capital by the company, it's earnings accretive, each dollar of earnings, after paying for the interest on the debt, is divvied up amongst the shares. If you loan it at a higher rate than the return on capital by the company, it works just the opposite, and is value destroying. When you issue more shares, the pie is bigger, but sliced into more smaller pieces, so to speak.

Sorry if this didn't help much as if it didn't Beatle will probably explain better, but hopefully it does.


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## beatle (14 October 2010)

Hi Andrew, with regard to your question about valuation. There are a number of ways to value an asset or a company based on its assets, but the most reliable and accurate basis is using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. This is used for modeling of all resource companies having reserves, and is used by the various mining analysts working generally within stockbroking companies. You will sometimes see the models of those stockbroking firms quoted and provided in a recommedation for a company, although often the model information they provide does not give all the details of various parameters and assumptions used for the analysis.

My valuations of RED all relate to the DCF analysis of the Siana, which the company holds 97.6% equity in, based on the schedule of mining and processing already provided in past company reports, and using my assumptions of commodities and exchange rate. The important thing with RED is that its quoted schedules for mining and processing have been already vetted by independent consultants working on behalf of the bank as part of the due diligence process for consideration of bank debt, and thus is reliability for estimation of the Net Present Value of the project are considered of good reliability. 

Once you have determined the NPV of Siana that RED is attributed to hold, you simply can then divide by the shares on issue, much like what ParleVousFrancais has in his explanation. 

Where the debt and equity comes in relates to plugging in either into the same model, and seeing what the final impact is on NPV and thence the NPV/share, ie estimate of value cps.

Debt is generally preferred as less shares are issued, unless the debt is excessively priced or the terms and conditions are excessively hard to achieve, but there is always a price to pay for the debt. Having debt generally keeps the company more focused on maintaining good practises in order to keep the bank happy and in conforming with the banking terms and conditions.

I don't have any particular references for you to look at it more closely, but suggest if you want to pursue it perhaps you should look for a reference on the internet using the key phrases, Mining Investment Analysis, and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis or more specifically there are courses provided by consultants or Securities Institute of Australia. I would give you one word of caution though in using the modeling process - an analysis using DCF modeling can give you an answer that maybe very inaccurate, if you just keep changing the inputs unrealistically, and therefore the input values are most important and should be scrutinised and questioned with the utmost attention to detail! As they say, rubbish in = rubbish out!


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## beatle (14 October 2010)

With the gold price up over night it would be great to have RED come out of the suspension and resume trading today, during the market session - here's hoping!

Just a note to Andrew, I did forget to say that many people get some indication of value for a company using comparative data for each company's gold projects, based on quoted resources etc, and using statistics, say for example Enterprise Value/ozs or many similar parameters, and as a rough indication it provides some idea of what a company may have compared to its peers. But again, its rubbish in = rubbish out, so you have to heavily scrutinise the information, make sure you are comparing apples with apples, if there are resources, are they likely to be within an economic pit, what are the recoveries etc etc. 

The other way, to standardise the valuation process as you have thought might be acceptable, assuming some sort of annualised profit margin etc is just too general to be meaningful. The DCF method, if used correctly allows you a period by period (whether it be annual, quarterly or monthly data) to more accurately estimate the profitability etc - and like anything as imprecise as a reserve, as soon as you complete a schedule of mining and mineral production, its historic, there will be factors that make you deviate from the schedule. So its a best attempt to estimate, not something you want to sign off as money in the bank. If you want to do that, then keep your money in the bank, haha!

Good luck with your valuing! (And GOOD LUCK TO RED !!!).


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## kash (14 October 2010)

We are on boys. the ann is coming through now. Up or down this baby is away


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## Moit (14 October 2010)

Hi Beatle , AB and all other RED club members. We are certainly a growing family...
First of all, AB a very interesting post yesterday, re: Rugby. It was great to see Mapawa get a mention. The size of Mapawa could truly be significant and obviously RED management have a little crystal ball at hand and can see the potential. Mapawa poses a very exciting future and now with the quarantined 20 million allowed for an accelerated exploration programme, with a bit of luck we do more with Mapawa than scratch the surface... Thanks AB, you certainly have some great sources...

Secondly, Ive been trying to get my head around this quotation of suspension, so i looked into some other ASX listed companies that are currently going through the same process. I found a company RDR, i know they have nothing to do with RED, all though i do believe they deal in gold and silver in WA. There quotation of suspension lasted 2 days before a request for reinstatement was announced to share holders and the general market. So maybe we have to sit back for another day or so before we hear anything. Although Beatle, you just mentioned that it may be possible for an announcement and for RED to come out of hiding, today, mid session. So thats a possibility to is it??? 

And how is this gold price. It can only mean great things for RED... As far as I'm concerned RED management couldn't have timed it any better, Price of gold through the roof, last trading price, 20.5 cents and near a 12 month high, then the release of the all anticipated Ann that we've all been waiting patiently for. I'm really looking forward to the next week or so.

Sorry for my lack of knowledge in this particular field, as i feel it is fairly rare to have a company your invested in, go through this process.

Wahoo, looks like where reinstated...

Come on RED...


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## KurwaJegoMac (14 October 2010)

This one's a tough one to call. SP will probably go down due to the share dilution at 0.17c but that could be outweighed by the positive news of oversubscription to the capital raising by Insitutional players.

Meh. Doesn't matter. Long term looks good


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## kash (14 October 2010)

Well instead of the original 40 million we now have 75milion. Show the level of interest from inst. We know that it is these guys who move the share price and we are along for the ride. Looks like they are riding in our direction up up up. Look good on open.


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## KurwaJegoMac (14 October 2010)

Yep, guess the Market's liking the news of the oversubscription by Insto's. Up up and away


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## kash (14 October 2010)

Great to see the market support this decision. We now have a great foundation to build on. We will be a gold producer by mid next year. This will slowly trickle up towards beatles value of 33-38cents. Now the big driving force to push it higher will be Mapawa. I think this is what the inst are positioning themselves for. Questions- When do we expect the next drilling results? Also when will get more drill rig on site to accelerate this as planned so as to get a flow of news to keep driving the price


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## beatle (14 October 2010)

Hi KurwaJegoMac and Kash, I agree that the initial market reaction has been positive, but to be honest the changed deal has got me wondering about their decision to substantially increase share capital issued at this time and price! 

I intend to talk it through with RED management before making any more comments on the arrangement, and as to whether I would recommend to shareholders to go along with the deal and approve the second tranche of equity funds - after all, we have until 23 Nov to make that decision and to observe what benefits these additional funds and insto's are doing for us in terms of share price support! Even if the valuation is enhanced by the guarantee of Siana development, the substantial increase in shares has significant impact on valuation cps, and eps. And without the second tranche of funds, if not approved, RED STILL has enough cash to develop Siana, with funds left over to explore Mapawa. 

Enough said by me at this stage, except that its needless for me to say that in any case I'm not selling a single share!


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## ParleVouFrancois (14 October 2010)

Perhaps if we reject the additional raised capital now (knowing that the placement was 4 times over subscribed), and then say in 3 months, since the price will be much higher due to the demand for the shares (4 times oversubscribed!) and Siana approaching completion, we raise capital then?


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## hugh_jarzz (14 October 2010)

beatle said:


> Hi KurwaJegoMac and Kash, I agree that the initial market reaction has been positive, but to be honest the changed deal has got me wondering about their decision to substantially increase share capital issued at this time and price!
> 
> I intend to talk it through with RED management before making any more comments on the arrangement, and as to whether I would recommend to shareholders to go along with the deal and approve the second tranche of equity funds - after all, we have until 23 Nov to make that decision and to observe what benefits these additional funds and insto's are doing for us in terms of share price support! Even if the valuation is enhanced by the guarantee of Siana development, the substantial increase in shares has significant impact on valuation cps, and eps. And without the second tranche of funds, if not approved, RED STILL has enough cash to develop Siana, with funds left over to explore Mapawa.
> 
> Enough said by me at this stage, except that its needless for me to say that in any case I'm not selling a single share!




You've hit the nail on the head Beatle. Last year, management stated that they planned to raise $80m to develop Siana, more than necessary, but to provide financial comfort as well. They duly raised $40m via that equity raising at 15.5c, and we all know what happened to the brilliant deal they entered into with DB! Now, over and above the dubious gold pre-pay, they have diluted us by a massive 30%, placing 300m shares to lucky punters who happened to be on Casimir's hit list (who ARE they, by the way!!) It's all very well to take advantage of the booming gold sector, but I'm gob-smacked that management have opted for such a large dilutionary issue. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a seller, but I too would like a little more explanation. My simple calculation is that Siana development requires about $70m, $20m is to be set aside for Mapawa exploration.....why therefore are they needing this additional $35m ?(approx) I'm bemused.


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## beatle (14 October 2010)

Hi ParleVousFrancais and all RED club members.

I've put up a patched model to cover the variations as I see them with respect to this much different basis of funding, covering both the debt of US$25million, and US$50 million equity at 17 cents. My revised valuation of RED for Siana is 32 cents per share, plus an enormous amount of spare cash which equates to something like 3.5 cps depending upon how much is left over from Siana development plus the amounts not used up already in Mapawa exploration.

Thus the revision of the funding package has altered the valuation for RED to
(32 + 3.5) cps = 35.5 cps.

Nothing has been attributed to Mapawa value in that valuation, and I have used revised commodity prices as of today plus exchange rate, ie US$1,370 Au, US$24 Ag, Exchange A$1.00 =99.5 US cents.

In time I work out a scenario if we don't arrive at any greater market price for RED, of if the second tranche funds are not approved at a share price - but we have got 6 weeks to observe and decide whether those extra funds should be approved by shareholders. 

IF RED has used all insto's in these placements THEN the smaller shareholders of RED (ie many smaller shareholders that are members of our RED club on ASF and HC!!!) are the final decision makers as to whether we want the second tranche funding to occur or not, since clearly RED has enough funds from the debt plus first tranche equity, to develop Siana and continue with exploration at Mapawa, without the need of the second tranche of this placement.


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## KurwaJegoMac (14 October 2010)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> Perhaps if we reject the additional raised capital now (knowing that the placement was 4 times over subscribed), and then say in 3 months, since the price will be much higher due to the demand for the shares (4 times oversubscribed!) and Siana approaching completion, we raise capital then?




I agree PVF - if the demand is there from Institutions, they should have to pay a premium for the dilution they're causing to our shareholding. We weren't able to participate in this raising so why should we do the Instos any favours by letting them have a slice of this company at a discount to its' potential.


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## beatle (14 October 2010)

Seems as though a number of us were posting at the same time, so didn't acknowledge nor comment on each others posts.

Hugh_jarzz I am more than gob-smacked, lol!!! But I'm also very comforted now with the market settling down, that it seems that RED share price likely to hold at current level around 21.5 - 22 cents. I see that as being a very positive start, and with insto's now the main market makers for RED its likely to start the push higher from now on. (I wouldn't mind betting that a Mapawa result might be just around the corner to sweeten our views a tad over the placement arrangements).

On the other topic PVF and KJM, as I've mentioned before I think we now have the time (AND the CONTROL) to see how RED behaves (and the insto's trading impact on RED share price!) in the next 6 weeks before the time of the vote, before we make a decision as to whether WE should allow them the rights to tranche 2 of the placement - its NOT a done deal if we don't agree, remember that, but if RED share price does move up in the intervening period then I'm happy to go along with it. Up to the insto's now, we are waiting and watching insto's . . .


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## beatle (14 October 2010)

One thing for sure is that whilst there remain outstanding sellers at 21 - 21.5 cents we are not going to see the commencement of the re-rating of RED share price! It seems that sellers are quite happy to accept current share price, just at a time when we know that Siana IS GOING to be developed, Gold WILL be produced in the first half of next year, AND RED now has got an enviable shareholder base of international investors! 

Why sell now just at the time when the share price is likely to move up in line with or beyond the valuation?


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## desjosie (14 October 2010)

beatle said:


> Why sell now just at the time when the share price is likely to move up in line with or beyond the valuation?




I've mulled over that same question myself even before the finance came out.. if the potential is a near doubling of what we have now.. why sell.. only they can answer ..


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## anderbond (14 October 2010)

Hi guys, well like the rest of you I am also gob smacked at size of the CR. I also agree that because of the highly dilutionary effect, that the discount seems excessive. How was the issue price arrived at? Was it the average of a period of trade beforehand? I have not the time to try to work this out, but these things usually have some sort of logical base. I have been wondering what the other insto's have made of the CR? But the answer is that the larger holders will have all been contacted beforehand to seek their views and the likelihood that they might react adversely. Therefore, in thinking this through, unless we see evidence in the coming days of sustained heavy selling (ie institutional selling), then it would indicate that the existing insto's are happy with the outcome. If this is so, then IMO we should also be happy. The proof one way or the other will be, as observed by others, in the SP in the coming days/weeks. I like Beatle also have a suspicion that there might be a Mapawa announcement coming, which might settle the market. I am personally undecided on whether I should buy up sufficient additional shares to help offset the dilution, or to rely on the SP driving forward to levels not previously modelled as the fundamental valuation. Beatle, I am not sure if you have modelled the effect of Mapawa being 10 times the size of Siana. If you have, could you remind me of the result please. If not is it possible to do so?
Thanks. AB


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## beatle (14 October 2010)

Hi Anderbond, and once again agree with your points made, although unlike yourself I believe from a smaller shareholders point of view compared to the insto's, our best outcome is to watch and observe whether the additional insto's/funds coming onto the shareholder list has made any difference to the share price of RED in coming weeks leading up to the AGM vote.

What I am at odds with, is that most likely each of the existing insto's probably have been invited to take up shares in the placement, therefore of course they are happy to go along with it, unlike us smaller shareholders that suffer the dilution without the invite. I don't begrudge a placement at a discount unless there is no clear requirement for so much money (which appears on the face of it to be in the case here) - in my view it is an inefficient management of the share capital to issue so many at that price when there is every reason to expect the share price to move up within the next 5 months as a direct consequence of activity at Siana plus anything that may arise from exploration at Mapawa. 

The interesting test of whether all existing insto's have been invited into the upcoming placements, is that IF THEY HAVE TAKEN UP SHARES in the placement they will not be able to vote at the meeting, therefore there is every likelihood that we smaller shareholders not involved in the placement have all the control in deciding whether the placement should proceed. As I have said a number of times, we go along for the ride, the insto's control our destiny with the market price, so now we sit back and see if they are wanting to take the share price up - if it goes up in the next 6 weeks then I will vote YES for the placement, if it just bobs up and down and stays much the same as now notwithstanding any outstanding influences such as gold price movements/general market conditions, then I will more than likely vote NO and seek all other smaller shareholders follow that same path.

With regard to Mapawa I did an analysis a few months ago after the first holes were drilled, and based on that plus the size of the geophysical anomaly, I posted the results of that suggesting around 9 cps, but since then we have the expanded capital and a bit more infor, so based on a potential minimum size could of around 100 million tonnes Potential at 1.0 g/t Au resource = 3.2 million ozs contained gold. But that is a very hairy estimate based on such slim information! If we assumed that number, it could put around 5 cps based on the expanded share capital base assuming US$20/Potential oz (if its higher then you just multiply what you want, say US$30/Potential oz), but thats a very hairy guesstimate and I wouldn't want anyone quoting me or refuting it, just an indication of what it could be worth at this very early stage of exploration.

There is no point to putting any estimates for Mapawa based on DCF as I have outlined the reasons why you must be quite careful with any analysis that has no real basis, realising we don't know the real tonnage potential as a reserve, no recovery factor, no capex, no opex - any estimate would be garbage in = garbage out!


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## anderbond (14 October 2010)

Hi Beatle, thanks very much for your response. I concur entirely with your thoughts, and will indeed vote against the expanded CR if the SP action over the coming period reflects a lack of positive movement. I guess I am trying to discern the "real" reasons behind the expanded CR. As stated it was a surprise to me, and although it is possible that it was seen by management/board as an opportunity, why raise capital at this price rather than wait until later. So IMO there has to be a lot more to what has been anounced so far. Hopefully you will be able to discuss this with CJ. I presume you can call him easily to discuss. AB


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## andrewk65 (14 October 2010)

Hi All
good to see green on the board. Just to say thanks Beatle and PVF for taking the time to answer my query re valuation. Just got home late so didnt thank you earlier. Ill have a look at the details and see how i go. This funding sure is bizarre. Why as many have said raise the extra cash when we should have either/or income and higher SP in the near future. Oh well, guess we just wait and see what they leave for us.


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## mardo (14 October 2010)

HI Beatle @ Anderbond,
Basically the small shareholders have been shafted by the institutions and management  to some extent,the gold price is at record levals of alltime and who could resist taking the opertunity  to double  the CR by only 100 % when you are trying to get a gold mine off the ground and a possible exploration property said to be much bigger.Ultimatelly it will be a benefit to all if you are prepared to wait untill the mine is  actully up and running.However I believe the shareprice might not be much higher closer to the AGM on 24/11/10. Judging what has been happening to the SP over the past six months or so,If you wait untill about 1 month after that I suggest the shareprice  willl be much greater depending on Global circumstances of the time.
P.S. I was a net seller today.


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## McCoy Pauley (14 October 2010)

I've been researching RED this morning. It's been on my watchlist for some time but I was put off taking a position due to the delays in obtaining the finance packaging. Obviously, that's now been put to rest.

Looking at RED's announcement released to the market on 16 July 2009, RED advised the market that the Siana Bankable Feasibility Study concluded that there was 336,000 oz of gold in the open pit at an average grade of 3.4 g/t and 839,000 oz of silver in the open pit at an average grade of 8.5 g/t.

I think the Study suggested that the production costs would be in the order of US$351/oz, after capital expenditure of US$62.5 million to establish the mine at Siana. The Study concluded that the NPV for Siana at US$1,000/oz would be US$251.7 million. They didn't even look at gold prices above US$1,000/oz for the purpose of the BFS.

Seems to me that there is a compelling reason to acquire shares in RED, but am I missing something?

Obviously, there are concerns about the dilutionary effect of the cap raising, but I'm not a holder in RED, so that doesn't affect me, so much.


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## mardo (14 October 2010)

HI ALL.
Please note AGM may now be deferred untill 13/12/10  re RED latest announcement. Seems a bit rushed.Cynic.


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## beatle (15 October 2010)

Hi Mardo and thanks for your thoughts. With regard to the AGM date, the way I read it I think RED put a request to have it deferred a couple of weeks, but the CR has been able to be completed sooner than anticipated earlier so the schedule is still with 23 Nov (thats how I read it, but I agree some confusion has been caused by announcing that later dated AGM to the market - it may well have been put out to confirm to the ASX that despite the deferral they are going earlier).
With respect to the shareprice Mardo, I believe its worth giving RED and the insto's the benefit of the doubt first, and see how things develop in the next few weeks. IF we remain static over that period then it suggests to me that the free kick that the new insto's (and the existing instos's) have been provided with should be halted only to the first tranche funding. If that is the case then we should not approve the second tranche funds. IF they prove that they have been an asset on the register by supporting the stock with the share price moving up then I for one will be prepared to support the second tranche - but its a poor use of company share capital in my opinion regardless. I'm disappointed as to RED not providing a definitive reason and rational argument for the additional funds in the announcement.

McCoy Pauley, I'm not sure I understand your question as to whether you have missed something, as it seems you have read the feasibility docs, plus subsequent announcements on Siana and Mapawa? Maybe you can be a bit more definitive about what you think you are missing?


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## mgm1a (15 October 2010)

Mccoy  Pauley; the BFS was over a year ago and used $US800 as base case - the table showed a range 200 above and below that. The 800 was something the investment community would at that time consider for projects at that time -remember the POG does go down as well as up. 

As i had posted elsewhere previously roughly each time $US100 POG increased would increase the NPV by $US50M 'ish. However you have to factor in the AUD/USD as well when considering comparing the NPV with RED market cap. because the cross rate has moved in step with the POG, in effect diminishing the direct effect of any change.


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## beatle (15 October 2010)

Hi Mgm1a, and thanks for the assistance in answering that question. Of course I concur with your comments entirely and you have put them in context with respect to the timing of the feasibility study and the more recent movements in gold price way above what anyone would consider. Its unfortunate we don't get much benefit with the rising A$, but of course since lots of the capex components are priced in US$ we do get some benefit to the expected capex spend with the rising A$.
As an interesting aside to the initial feasibility study, the Whittle pit optimisation was done at a gold price of US$650/oz and silver price of US$10/oz, but the exchange rate was not quoted. I wouldn't mind betting that the halo of resource to the ultimate reserve delineated by that Whittle run would now be economic, thus it could mean that the open pit phase of mining operations will be expanded once mining begins, thus additional gold production, notwithstanding the huge hits in drilling that post-dated the resource model (Hole SMDD134 -5 metres at 25.4 g/t gold and Hole SMDD135-3 metres at 31.6 g/t gold)!
I can't wait to have RED start reporting gold production, as well as the expansion of exploration activity for Mapawa.


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## McCoy Pauley (15 October 2010)

Hi Beatle and mgm1a - my question as to whether I'm missing anything was probably more rhetorical than anything else.  Thanks for your comments, both of you.


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## beatle (18 October 2010)

Its a waiting game at present, with the insto's obviously holding out to see who weakens! Whilst they may believe they have got time on their hands at present, once news comes out about the ongoing developments at Siana, and Mapawa drilling, then they won't be able to wait much longer if they want to try force the weaker hands!

AND from my point of view the clock is ticking with regards to us allowing them have second tranche of cheap shares - IF they don't prove they are worthy of having those shares by supporting the share price then why would any shareholder want to give them anymore cheap shares - in my view we must remain completely objective to the benefits of having insto's on the register. They can play their trading games, but if they don't add value for us, then I know what I will do with my vote regarding them getting second tranche shares.

By the way McCoy Pauley I guess that means you don't hold RED shares (and my comment is not "probably rhetorical", its "actually" rhetorical, lol!). Each to our own I admit.

Come on RED, some action please - even if the gold price drops US100 and the exchange rate with it, and even on the most diluted case, RED is still worth 35 odd cents per share once in production (and we know its going into production for sure now!). The markets waiting RED . . .


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## jancha (18 October 2010)

beatle said:


> Its a waiting game at present, with the insto's obviously holding out to see who weakens! Whilst they may believe they have got time on their hands at present, once news comes out about the ongoing developments at Siana, and Mapawa drilling, then they won't be able to wait much longer if they want to try force the weaker hands!
> 
> AND from my point of view the clock is ticking with regards to us allowing them have second tranche of cheap shares - IF they don't prove they are worthy of having those shares by supporting the share price then why would any shareholder want to give them anymore cheap shares - in my view we must remain completely objective to the benefits of having insto's on the register. They can play their trading games, but if they don't add value for us, then I know what I will do with my vote regarding them getting second tranche shares.
> 
> ...




Only action is on the downside at present.
Question is would you be better off selling now & buying them back at a cheaper price as this downtrend looks like continuing.
What % do the insto's hold in RED Beatle?


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## beatle (18 October 2010)

To be honest Jancha I have no idea, as the insto's have been slowly pulling shares off smaller holders since the previous placement, and these 2 current placements (the first being likely and the second not yet approved) will confuse the situation further. All I know is that its been the retail holder that has been the main seller in recent months according to the Chairman. 

I agree with there "appears" to be a logical reason to sell now knowing RED is on a downswing at present, but the issue you face if you go ahead with that strategy is that at some point the insto's will reappear viciously taking any shares at these lower prices before pushing it higher, particularly in view of:
1. Its about time for Mapawa drilling to be announced;
2. Quarterly report out in the next 2 weeks at the latest, thus confirmation of Siana development likely to be on track;
3. Insto's have every reason to keep the share price bubbling along slightly above the 17 cents placement price to argue why they should get the approval of all shareholders for that second placement, but my argument is that they should be able to demonstrate through the goodwill of RED having given them the first cheap shares at 17 cents (not just goodwill, as RED is also paying a fee for the pleasure (?) of having them on the register) that they can influence the share price up!;
4. The fundamental value of RED at current gold price/exchange rate remains in the mid-30's cents range, regardless of whether the second tranche placement happens or not;
5. Last week we did see some big Bids in amounts of 1 and 2 million shares at 20.5 cents and 21 cents, those have been pulled for now but they can reoccur so easily.

Therefore if you decide to temporarily make a quick buck then aim to re-enter RED at a lower price, you risk your chance, especially if the share price rises for a few cents very quickly!


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## andrewk65 (19 October 2010)

Hi Beatle 
Thanks for the feedback before re valuation. I was just wondering, forgetting all the calculations and as you have said previously gold producers often trade at a premium to valuations, do you have a figure  that you believe would be achievable for this company if all went as planned and production goes ahead. I know it's only guesswork but I would love to know what you think this could realistically get to before you consider it overpriced.
Hope it's not too daft a question?
Cheers
Andrewk65


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## beatle (20 October 2010)

Hi Andrewk65, sorry for the delay in my reply, and of course its not a daft question, and I'm possibly not the best person to pronounce that premium with my biased view, lol!

I believe that a premium to the fundamental value will be achieved around the time of gold production, but the extent of that premium depends so much on the state of the market as well as RED's ability to translate that first production into marketable spin! (We have already observed that RED is not the same as MML in that regard unfortunately!). 

I guess the other point to make is that whilst we are now assured that RED will develop Siana with the funds in hand, whether the second tranche of that funding occurs or not (I hope not!), the wildcard always will be Mapawa in terms of achieving even better pricing for RED. Who knows how that will pan out.

What is of interest today, is that with the US$ gold price in retreat (the aussie gold price not much changed but the market seems to forget that!), what will happen with those North American insto's seeking cheap placements in RED, and even the other insto's, with the first tranche being issued tomorrow - will some smaller insto's take a quick profit and drop some existing shares to replace them with more cheap shares. Thats my issue with the second tranche of funds too, it could mean we are delayed in getting to that fundamental value for a while if in the meantime the insto's start to change their overall weighting in gold shares due to a slight change in gold price outlook.

Interesting times for RED and the entire gold sector of the market.


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## ubtheboss (20 October 2010)

Here is a copy of an old article that appeared in Diggers and Drillers that might be useful (I couldn't find a link to it so I've copied and pasted it)

Gold Stock Valuation Using Enterprise Value Per oz 
By Troy Schwensen

[Editor's note: This article appeared in the July 2009 edition of Diggers and Drillers. Troy Schwensen is the editor of The Global Speculator and a research analyst at www.goldnerds.com.au.]

When investing in anything, it pays to have a sense of value. Let's say, for instance, you were looking to buy a house in a suburb you like. For starters, you could just charge in like a wounded bull and purchase the first house that takes your fancy. I think many of you would agree that this approach is fraught with danger. 

If you were somewhat smarter, you would probably do what most people do and look at as many houses that are for sale in that suburb first and try and establish a sense of value before making a purchase (giving you peace of mind). 

The savvy investor may even take this process one step further and establish a value on what all these properties have in common, the answer of course being land. They may work out a value that they are paying per square meter of land for each property inspected. Next, they would compare this with an average for the suburb compiled from recent historical sales data.

Now valuing a property by looking at the valuation of the land is of course only half the battle in establishing whether you are getting reasonable value for money. Why? 

Because every house built on that land obviously differs in various ways. The house could be bigger in size and better equipped. The land itself could be located in a more desirable part of the suburb, such as on a hill or by a lake or river where there may be a view and breezes. The list could obviously go on but I think you get the general idea. 

All these other factors are variables that you would take into account in order to establish what you think that particular property is worth. But your starting point would be the value of the land and you would build on your analysis from there, based on a comparison of these other variables. 

How to find precious metals stocks are reasonable prices 

When buying shares in a precious metals company, do you go through a similar process in order to determine whether the company you are buying shares in is reasonably priced? For most, the thought of going through this process is much too daunting. It is much easier to get your stock broker to perhaps recommend a company. 

In my experience there is no substitute for being able to personally assess value, even if it is at just a basic level. There is also nothing wrong with receiving stock recommendations from newsletter writers or stock brokers on the proviso you have the ability to check these companies out yourself. 

This is what will give you the conviction to buy and hold which brings me to a concept I want to introduce to you today. It is a relatively simple but practical method of comparing similar precious metals companies and establishing a sense of value.

Enterprise Value per Ounce 

Let me start by defining what an Enterprise Value (EV) is. An EV is simply the Market Capitalization of a company (number of outstanding shares multiplied by the current share price) adjusted to eliminate the effect of a company's financial assets and its financial obligations (liabilities). You subtract the financial assets which would include items such as (not an exhaustive list): 
1.	Cash and Cash Equivalents
2.	Accounts Receivable
3.	Inventories (If a producer)
4.	Listed and Unlisted Investments where you can readily establish a fair value
5.	Derivatives (Bought Options and favorable Forward Sales Agreements) 
And add the company's financial obligations including (not an exhaustive list): 
1.	Accounts Payable
2.	Interest Bearing Liabilities
3.	Derivative Obligations (Unfavorable Forward Sales Agreements and written option contracts)
4.	Retirement Obligations
What remains is essentially the value the market is attributing to the company's non-financial assets or its projects. If you were to look at this diagrammatically it would appear as follows:


To calculate an EV per ounce, you simply add up the total number of ounces attributable to the company via its projects and divide this number into the Enterprise Value. 

The concept of EV per ounce is by no means a new valuation methodology and it certainly has its critics. Like land is the common denominator in our real estate investment example, gold in the ground is obviously the commonality when looking to compare gold related companies. 

Now critics of the EV method will tell you that when using this method you are incorrectly assuming that all metal in the ground is created equally. This is of course a valid criticism if and only if your analysis was to simply stop there. It would be like saying property A is better value than property B because I can pick up the land for a cheaper rate per square meter without taking anything else into account. 

Obviously this technique would be completely flawed. For instance, you can't conceivably take a producing gold mining company and compare its EV per ounce with an exploration company and come to the conclusion that the exploration company offers better value. You would be excluding the costs associated with the development of the mine, not to mention the premium a company receives in the market for successfully developing the project.

My question to the critics of EV per ounce would be why on earth would you stop at just this first step? This limitation can be quite simply overcome by having a large enough number of companies to compare, so that you can isolate the ones that have the most in common (similar development stages) and generate the additional information required to consider the applicable variables. These might include: 
•	The size of the deposit. Bigger deposits tend to attract a premium due to the higher probability of being developed based on better economies of scale.
•	Different resource classifications dependent on drill spacing and economic viability. Reserves both Proven and Probable (supported by economic studies) versus just a resource (no supporting feasibility study work). 
•	The depth of the deposit. Is it shallow enough for cheaper open cut mining methods? (Generally 150m-200m or ideally shallower) Are there large amounts of overburden that need to be stripped away adding to the cost of mining (stripping ratios).
•	The average grade of the deposit. Generally speaking, higher grades are cheaper to produce and attract a premium. If you are mining underground, higher grades become essential due to the additional capital cost associated with underground mining.
•	Different economics (cash costs, construction costs, ongoing capital expenditure etc) Useful by-product credits can in turn lower the net cash costs of production. The availability of infrastructure lowers construction costs. For example, access to grid power versus the requirement for diesel generators in remote regions (more expensive). Access to ready built roads and ports versus having to build this infrastructure. Underground mines have higher ongoing capital costs associated with the continuation of underground development. 
•	The metallurgy (recoverability of the metals). Sulfide deposits generally have lower recovery rates than oxide and require a more complicated extraction process. 
•	The political risks. A deposit in Zimbabwe would obviously trade at a substantial discount to say the same type of deposit in Australia or Canada.
•	The exploration potential on the properties and the probability of future expansion of the deposits.
The precious metals sector is emotionally charged. When you study EV per ounce information on a large scale it becomes very apparent just how much influence market sentiment can have on a company's valuation.

A simple way to avoid this risk is to have a basic sense of value. Perform a quick EV per ounce calculation and see what you are paying. Compare this to some of the company's peers and establish whether what you are paying is reasonable. Don't be the chump that is buying shares off the people that were fortunate enough to get in at the ground level and are cashing out. 

One of the single largest limitations with the EV per ounce method is having enough comparable companies and all the associated information you need available to make the process of comparison easy and effective. For the average investor, you may be able to undertake this process for a handful of companies but it is not realistic to compile all the necessary information yourself. 

If something like EV per ounce sounds like it appeals to you, my advice would be to find a reliable information service that does the grunt work for you at a reasonable price. Most importantly, you need to find a group that actually use their own information and can properly articulate the optimal way of using it.


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## beatle (20 October 2010)

Thanks Ubtheboss, its an interesting article, which provides a good coverage of the broader elements that require consideration relevant to resource development etc, not just pertaining for RED but for the entire resources sector. 
The key points though that must be recognised is that:
1. Each metal deposit is unique in terms of the specifics of type of deposit, grade, quantity, recovery, etc, and its capacity to support a profitable mining operation
2. Resouce estimation is an inexact science (albeit camouflaged with the use of geostatistic etc), and thus the estimate of gold in the ground is a highly questionable issue but becomes THE key parameter in any comparative analysis of EV/oz, thus there are many pitfalls in that analysis although it might provide a good starting point for more definitive assessment.

In the case of RED we are talking about a considerable number of Indicated Resource ozs that have gone through the entire optimisation, mining schedule, metallurgy process etc to finally end up with a positive outcome for the Feasibility Study. Many other projects will never end up as mineable projects notwithstanding appearing to be attractive on a EV/oz basis on first glance. I agree that Schwensen suggests comparing like with like as the next stage after the first comparison is made but again it so much depends upon the resource ounces which are unique from project to project.


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## Moit (20 October 2010)

Hi Beatle and all other RED club members. I'm hoping our family hasn't disintegrated too much. It sure has been quiet on ASF...

Beatle what a day today was, a low of 18.5 and a finish right at the end of 20 cents. It was fairly volatile trading, and great volume to go with it. I know I'm only stating the obvious, but its good to talk about our little gold mine... I also noticed at 4.12 an L3 cross trade of 2,099,845. I'm not sure what the L3 code is, but is it possible it maybe one of those infamous instos that we've all been waiting for. If it was, he could have been batting for us a few days ago, lol.

 Still nothing on Mapawa, I'm looking forward to hearing some positive news in regards to drilling. Beatle were you reading the bottom of AB's glass of RED, or your own tea leaves when you thought a report of Mapawa was due out, lol. My XXXX bottle is suggesting, its coming, just not sure when...

Anyway, RED is holding up quite well considering its Share price has pretty much been at 7 year highs. I think the sellers are starting to settle down a bit and the buyers and sellers are starting to get on a level playing field, which is great to see.

Just my thoughts, regards Moit, GO RED !!!


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## kash (21 October 2010)

I am still hanging in there. Waiting for results from mapawa.Thats what the inst are positioning themselves for and so am I.


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## beatle (21 October 2010)

Hi Moit, good to see your enthusiasm remains, and also great to see the rebound after the drop yesterday. In fact if the truth were known, the valuation of RED during yesterday's mad trading was slightly more than today, due completely due to the exchange rate variation. But who's nitpicking that when we remain at such a discount anyway.

I do want to confirm that I have not been reading Anderbonds wine sediment with regard to Mapawa. I have no idea when they will put out that announcement, but I would assume it will come before the quarterly which is due out soon.

On other matters, just beware that if we have 1 loose insto cannon, there might be a bit of stock coming out today or the next couple of days once the 3B is released to the market. If one of the insto's has changed his gold outlook slightly they might want to lighten off with some of the placement shares. (Especially if they think they will also be getting some more cheap shares in about 6 weeks time - it really irritates me, I'm even more convinced as time goes by that we should all be voting no at the agm re the second part of this placement).


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## mgm1a (21 October 2010)

Well annual report out and first thing to check is top20...
can't see too many of the 31 instos that went into cap rasing.
Notably Anglo Ashanti  fully out, David Teoh increased 28m, Lujeta 28m, Equity Trustees (ASX:EQT) with 4% 42m, and good to see Allen Govey hasn't sold any since leaving Red5 to work at Triton. 
Top 20 last year totaled 61% this year 67%. I thought it might be more still free float is decreasing..
....
.....Now...which one is beatle?


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## mgm1a (21 October 2010)

Mapawa picture now looking more like a dental root canal going very deep with gold/copper ....can a geo give opinion please


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## andrewk65 (21 October 2010)

Hi all
Maybe another daft question but am I right in thinking that if we produce 100,000 oz gold in first year we should be earning approx $1000 per oz giving 100,000,000? Is that a realistic target for first year. I assume 800,000 odd oz is supposed to be the estimated life of mine. Still can't understand why we are giving away money with the share issue.at least the market has not punished red this time, I seem to remember it was a bit ugly when the first finance arrangement with db was announced.


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## fastbuck1 (21 October 2010)

the capp raising could have and should have been at .20, and we would have a few less shares kicking around, think i will vote no for the extra funds, car'nt see why its needed.....and only means more shares .......they will just have to wait till and get this mine producing if they want some money....


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## ParleVouFrancois (21 October 2010)

I'm out today at 20 cents, not because I've changed my views of RED (30 cents discounted intrinsic value) but I see a much higher upside in TRF. I've had a good run with RED, and it could easily go up from here, but alas, capital shortages mean something has to give, I wish the best of luck to current and future RED holders, she'll definitely have a mine, and Mapawa will be explored, hopefully I'll have a few gains and be able to buy back in before the big run up to 30 cents.


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## beatle (21 October 2010)

Hi Guys, sorry to hear you're out completely ParlevousFrancais, but at least you have got a great return (I'm interested to read up on TRF if you consider them being a better alternative!).

I've not had much of a chance to read the Annual Report for RED yet, except to gloss over some of the points made by others here - and Mgm1a, I have got a few different accounts in different names so no chance to be in the 20 (but aggregated ...). 
I will make one observation with regard to your comment about Lance which is very relevant - in fact you are not only correct that he hasn't sold a share since leaving RED, but he has actually INCREASED his holding (ever so slightly, by 100,000 shares!!!). But that ever so slight increase says a lot more to me than the slightness of the increase - it proves he believes that he likes what he has seen since leaving RED!!! THAT IS A BIG VOTE OF CONFIDENCE in my opinion!
(Mgm1a I don't like the analogy of Mapawa to a dental root canal! Yuk, lol (I hate going to the dentist - is that a good enough comment from a geologist, haha?). I haven't read that part of the report yet, but I do like the Chairmans comment about the eclipsing of Siana gold inventory by Mapawa based on 3 drilling rigs - but what I like was the comment that its potential to RAPIDLY eclipse Siana. And of course that is a very fair comment, in my mind it won't take long for that to happen if we build up towards 100 million tonnes of porphyry grading around 0.8 - 1.2 g/t!

Fastbuck, the more I have thought about it, the more i believe its important that we smaller shareholders band together to vote NO to the second tranche - in fact, who knows, maybe RED management have gone along with the request by the insto's without really wanting it, so maybe we are doing the management a favour - i believe we are certainly doing ourselves, as shareholders, a favour in voting against it. Once RED has hit 35 cents based on Siana alone, if they need more cash then we might reconsider another smaller placement at around that level, just reducing total shares on issue by around 100 million! (Absolute crazy this second tranche placement at 17 cents!!!).

Tomorrow we might see how many opportunists drop shares from the latest placement, lets hope they all hold! If they drop shares it only proves to me that they should not be getting the second placement!

Also, Andrew RED ramp up to 100,000 ozs progressively, over a couple of years, so they don't achieve it in the first 12 months, but certainly do have a significant cash profit from as soon as they get into production.


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## hugh_jarzz (22 October 2010)

beatle said:


> Hi Guys, sorry to hear you're out completely ParlevousFrancais, but at least you have got a great return (I'm interested to read up on TRF if you consider them being a better alternative!).
> 
> I've not had much of a chance to read the Annual Report for RED yet, except to gloss over some of the points made by others here - and Mgm1a, I have got a few different accounts in different names so no chance to be in the 20 (but aggregated ...).
> I will make one observation with regard to your comment about Lance which is very relevant - in fact you are not only correct that he hasn't sold a share since leaving RED, but he has actually INCREASED his holding (ever so slightly, by 100,000 shares!!!). But that ever so slight increase says a lot more to me than the slightness of the increase - it proves he believes that he likes what he has seen since leaving RED!!! THAT IS A BIG VOTE OF CONFIDENCE in my opinion!
> ...




Rapidly and RED are 2 words which don't gell...sorry Beatle, I laughed out loud when I read that!  Also, you seriously have to be joking if you believe the 2nd tranche won't be approved....muster all the votes you like, but, it will happen. And goodbye to the teenage scribbler....it's the internet age I guess where the attention span of a gnat is the norm.


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## beatle (22 October 2010)

Hi Hugh_Jarz, and its good to have a laugh now and then! But actually if you do think about it a bit more than the timespan that your gnat may have, please reconsider:

1. Mapawa - RAPIDLY increase resources to beyond Siana. Whilst we may not be talking about finalising a reserve for Mapawa, to come up with a resource with more ounces than Siana is not hard to achieve at all, if you have 3 rigs drilling around the clock (which I understand they are doing). For a start, it appears that Mapawa mineralisation is associated with an altered diorite that once intersected has relatively homogeneous grades of gold (plus minor copper) over considerable widths for each of the holes drilled. 

Whilst this might be a simplistic example to prove my point please don't fall asleep whilst I give you a few numbers: If we assume that the average grade of the deposit is 1.0 g/t (as an example), then to achieve 1 million ounces of gold, and lets say you need to drill on a final 50 metre x 25 metre drill grid to have sufficient drilling to get an Indicated Resource (which probably would not be required if it can be demonstrated earlier of such mineralisation homogeneity) = 50m x 25m x 2.3 (= SG which is likely to be more than 2.3) x Z metres drilled depth (ie the total drilled metres in mineralisation). Z = 11,000 metres. ie 3 rigs drilling in this sort of mineralisation, if we assume each rig drills 20 metres averages per shift (probably conservative) = 555 shifts, for 3 rigs = 183 days (6 months). 

This achieves a Siana contained gold inventory!!! I acknowledge that drilling is most likely not intersecting "ore" grade intersections continuously, but if the alteration is as widespread as it appears, then the resource ozs will certainly be considerable with a concerted effort.

2. VOTE NO!!!
I understand that almost all insto's have been involved in this placement, consisting of both tranche 1 (already done) and tranche 2 (subject to shareholder approval). Thus NO institution involved in the placement (and since the ratification of tranche 1 and approval of tranche 2 have been mysteriously bundled into the same resolution indicates that any insto in either tranche 1 or the proposed tranche 2 placement!) can vote to this Resolution at the AGM!!! If you realise that most retail shareholders do not usually vote, any concerted effort to get shareholders to VOTE NO COULD have a significant bearing on the result. 

I believe its in the best interests of us smaller retail shareholders to VOTE NO, and I do seek all shareholders that are allowed to vote, to VOTE NO on the proxy form prior to 48 hours from the meeting or at the meeting if you are attending (preferably on the proxy as well so there is no confusion at all!).

I hope you haven't fallen asleep Hugh_Jarz, but then maybe you represent an insto (lol!).


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## ParleVouFrancois (22 October 2010)

RE: Hugh, I've held since 12.5 cents, up 60% in less then 3 months, I'm still very interested in the RED story and will continue to follow the events of it, it's just that right now I'm not able to remain invested in RED, due to other investments IMO having a higher upside from here.


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## anderbond (22 October 2010)

Hi RED clubhouse members, well another interesting week. Thought that the SP held up quite well given the CR. It looks like the insto's and some other larger shareholders are continuing to mop up the shares that are being dropped by the smaller holders. Like Beatle I find it difficult to understand that now is the time to drop off the company when it is all systems go! After all it is not as if they are still at exploration stage with Siana. But the big kicker will be Mapawa without any doubt. Notice that some of the larger holders have continued to increase their positions (see top 20). All looks v good to me. Only nagging issue is the size of the CR, especially the second tranche. I have heard on the grapevine that this was done to provide a "comfort" factor, but I am investigating further to see if there is something more definitive. I feel that drilling of Mapawa will now be much more focussed, as it is possible that it has been dragged out deliberately in order to not become a takeover target too early. Time will tell.
I need to read the report again as I believe there is much between the lines and the careful words being used. Remember, management is very conservative! AB


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## Moit (23 October 2010)

Hi all RED club members. Kash, its great to see your still hanging in there, i dare say you will be rewarded. Parle, sorry to here you have decided to move on, but good luck with your future endevours...

On another matter in regards to the second tranche, i too will be voting NO, and so will my father. I disagree entirely, i don't see why it is needed and why should the instos get them at a premium discount to the current sp when theres the smaller guys still buying at 19.5/20 cents. But it guess does make sense if it is a comfort factor like AB says, something for management to fall back on perhaps...

Anyway ill be out for a few days, GO RED


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## beatle (25 October 2010)

Hi Moit, I agree with your line of thinking, including the second tranche of placement funds, and maybe we can use this (and HC) as a means to thrash out this issue of what the smaller shareholder should consider with the vote they are empowered with.
One thing that should also be considered, that I haven't really expanded on yet, is that since the gold pre-payment remains subject to due diligence before its completed, then of course we have to wait to see if RED announces completion of that funding first. Whilst the gold price in Aussie dollars has not changed much, in US$ it has come down considerably. I wonder if that offer also is conditional on the gold price being within a certain range before first drawdown.
Naturally IF the pre-pay did not become available due to the final conditions not being met, then we all would have to agree that the second tranche of funds should definitely be taken up as it provides the surety for development of Siana and drilling for Mapawa etc. (OF course I don't understand why it had to be in total a US$75 million funding of prepay plus placement when originally it only had to be US$40 million).

I hope the insto's do the right thing and prove to us in the meantime why they should be getting the second tranche by pushing the share price up again. IF they do that then I can understand the benefits of having them more committed and involved on the register. In a way its like OUR due diligence on them getting the vote, to observe what they can do for us in the lead up to the vote! Come on guys get on your bikes, show us what your worthy of in pushing up RED . . .


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## beatle (26 October 2010)

I can see RED holding about this price now til we either get some news on Mapawa (when there could be a rush of blood), or if gold went crazy in coming weeks. There certainly has been some more bullish commentaries on gold that I have seen, even after gold has come off its highs, so that possibility of gold testing its record high is not off the cards completely.

But RED has got its own story, and it will depend very much on how the insto's want to play their hand, whether they seek absolute surety that they get their cheap second placement or not, depending on how we vote at the AGM.

The news anticipated for RED coming out this week must include
the Quarterly Report (due out no later than this week otherwise suspension till its released!) - it will surely confirm ongoing development work on Siana and status of contracts, although hopefully it gives more information on Mapawa drilling status, and I  presume give an update on the Sprott due diligence re the prepayment loan (US$25 million). Its essential that this loan is finally granted to RED to give us all the option of deciding whether we should vote yes or no on the second placement.

As I have said every now and then, each day that goes by is 1 day closer to that first gold pour, the line has now been drawn in the sand. That also implies each day gone by is one day closer to the ever expectant move closer towards fundamental value for Siana being realised. Thus 30+ cents is just around the corner, shame we can't speed up the process a tad!


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## RADV (26 October 2010)

I got some RED paperwork in the mail last night, including the voting forms. I will be voting 'no' to the second tranche also - most disappointment with the share price over the last couple of days.


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## beatle (26 October 2010)

Hi RADV, just before you make your final decision on whether you decide to vote YES or NO can I suggest you wait to see that RED confirms it has received the final unconditional offer of gold pre-payment loan to Sprott? Until that happens we will not be sure that the entire funding arrangement is sufficient for RED to complete development of Siana. Hopefully Sprott will sign off and provide those funds shortly, but until its done we need to ensure RED gets the funds either by way of loan or placement.

In regards to current share price, for me its just going along with the ride as we can't have any impact on what the insto's want to do with the price. 

The EXCITING for me though is the POSSIBILITY of a takeover coming out of the blue - if you will note that there has been an increase in the level of takeovers/mergers in the gold/base metals scene the past couple of weeks. Surely RED, being completely undervalued will be under the radar at present of some group such as a KCN (they have just acquired a minnow in LRC).


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## mgm1a (26 October 2010)

we seem to have more bot trading going on forcing the price down as well as heavy dumper early on. Someone not trying too hard (in the wake of weaker buyers) to cap the SP nearer to the magical 17c mark


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## RADV (26 October 2010)

beatle said:


> Hi RADV, just before you make your final decision on whether you decide to vote YES or NO can I suggest you wait to see that RED confirms it has received the final unconditional offer of gold pre-payment loan to Sprott? Until that happens we will not be sure that the entire funding arrangement is sufficient for RED to complete development of Siana. Hopefully Sprott will sign off and provide those funds shortly, but until its done we need to ensure RED gets the funds either by way of loan or placement.




Very wise you are Beatle , and if the funds are required then that may justify the discounted sp and increase in shares. But, as I think you have said in a previous post, the instos must add value.

As a recent member of the RED family, I will take on board all recommendations from our learned ASF members, but at this point I lean heavily to 'no'. A lot can happen in three weeks - will wait and see.


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## mattyhammer (26 October 2010)

Rick64 said:


> Well fellow RED holders, since my initial small purchase yesterday @ 20c, which I was very happy with at close, I went and bought more today.
> As explained in my first post, I have to sell oher stocks to make a more substantial invesment in RED. This I did, but only 50pc of my total holdings. I did what I imagined was the right thing, that is I put a buy order in @ 20c when RED was @ 21.5, having retreated from 22.5 earlier in he session. two hours later I became impatient and raised my order to 21. After another hour still no joy, so I bit the bullet and finally bought @ 21.5 o make sure I got in.
> Imagine my horror when RED didnt rise but proceeded to drop further to end the day at what I purchased for yesterday! I managed to turn a small profit into a large loss in 24hrs
> WHERE DID I GO WRONG????????
> ...




Rick64, so why did you buy? If you can't answer that, then that's maybe where you went wrong! Ever heard the term "don't put all your eggs in one basket?". It's called Position Sizing and I believe it would be in your best interest to do a bit of reading on that subject. Some technical analysis skills wouldn't hurt either. I'm not a technical analyst by a long shot, but my 'opinion' is that it's currently ivo the end of a Wave 4 using elliot wave theory. It 'should' (here's hoping!!) reverse from today's low of 18c or thereabouts and move upward to a value of around 23-26c. Wave 5 can be difficult to determine. If it breaks significantly below today's low of 18c I will be getting out quickly.
When you got in at 21c it was testing new highs that it hadn't seen for over 6 years. It's hit a bit of resistance but 'should' (here's hoping again!!) push through that level on its next attempt over the next week or two. 
MC ;-)


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## jancha (26 October 2010)

beatle said:


> Hi RADV, just before you make your final decision on whether you decide to vote YES or NO can I suggest you wait to see that RED confirms it has received the final unconditional offer of gold pre-payment loan to Sprott? Until that happens we will not be sure that the entire funding arrangement is sufficient for RED to complete development of Siana. Hopefully Sprott will sign off and provide those funds shortly, but until its done we need to ensure RED gets the funds either by way of loan or placement.
> 
> In regards to current share price, for me its just going along with the ride as we can't have any impact on what the insto's want to do with the price.
> 
> The EXCITING for me though is the POSSIBILITY of a takeover coming out of the blue - if you will note that there has been an increase in the level of takeovers/mergers in the gold/base metals scene the past couple of weeks. Surely RED, being completely undervalued will be under the radar at present of some group such as a KCN (they have just acquired a minnow in LRC).




Beatle it would very much out of the blue if there were a take over.
You'd think the sovereign risk would be enough to put off any take over thoughts especially with other less riskier ones around.
Red looks to be doing just as the word suggest going in the red. Down to 17.5c.atm.
 Question now is at what point do i re enter?


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## beatle (26 October 2010)

Hi Mgm1a, its interesting to see the trading today, and that "heavy dumper" as you call it. 

I presume the dump was someone who couldn't take the pain of watching this fall down from its recent high - it being forced to this share price by insto's who clearly have a much longer sighted view of RED and don't really mind a couple days (or weeks) at a subdued level. 

Strangely enough, I'm too numb from any day by day events in RED share price to feel the pain except that in fact am now I'm getting excited with a thought to buy some more! Its almost time for that and then I will be able to appreciate how it feels to be like an insto (lol!).


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## beatle (26 October 2010)

Haha - Hi Jancha, if you read my post that I was preparing as you sent yours through, that's exactly how I feel now, I'm getting my appetite back for more too!

I don't believe that the sovereign risk of the Philippines is an issue for some of the companies who might be seeking such an acquisition, even on the ASX - for example KCN who has just announced its intention to gobble up LCR has Thailand as its first destination, hardly a safer country with the recent civil unrest. North American miners don't share the same view as some Australian companies in that regard, and I suggest that I would rather be in the Philippines for its risk profile than many of the African nations, such as Congo etc, and has no more risk than Indonesia.


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## beatle (27 October 2010)

I'm very disappointed that RED didn't weaken just a tad more, to allow a bit more chance to get shares at 17 cents yesterday before it bounced back to 18 cents. At 17 cents I believe its in the buy zone, and you won't be disappointed with that as an entry or top up price! 

As I have mentioned many times previously RED is now in the hands of the insto's and so you have to expect that the ride will be in their hands completely, us smaller shareholders have no capacity to influence the share price, it depends upon how they want to play the game, even when announcements are made, its up to the insto's as to how things will go - BUT with the realisation that RED is going UP!!! 

That's my view anyway.


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## fastbuck1 (27 October 2010)

by todays trading and the depth looks like it's about to go oin another run up.....upward pressure has to mount as time ticks away......the fear will be in missing out.......sell at your own perils.


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## ParleVouFrancois (27 October 2010)

Come on RED, stay down a few more months, my TRF hasn't yet done anything so I can't really justify buying back in with the same capital! :

Even though I no longer hold I'm still a believer in RED, she won't last too long around these prices before heading towards that long awaited intrinsic value of 30's. Good luck to current holders I don't think you'll have to wait too long.


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## AKB (27 October 2010)

fastbuck1 said:


> by todays trading and the depth looks like it's about to go oin another run up.....upward pressure has to mount as time ticks away......the fear will be in missing out.......sell at your own perils.




Resisted the urge to get out at 19 today for a quick 7%. Let's hope the market pumps some life into it tomorrow.


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## beatle (28 October 2010)

Hi AKB and other RED Club members.

I think back to my first experience with its predecessor Greenstone and my first purchase of its shares was to get the temptation of a quick profit as it moved from around 2.8 cents to 3.5 cents. I was in the same boat as you AKB, but the following days it went back to 2.5 cents! Haha. BUT that was 1997 (or 1998, can't recall exactly now), and times have changed.

As I have commented on before, be aware that RED will swing wildly now and its all a matter of riding those swings if you want the real upside, as the jockey is not us smaller investors, its the BIG insto's that want to take our shares before pushing it much higher!

I heard a commentary on Fox Business last night from 2 technical commentators (the Chartist and someone called Gary from another stock outfit using charts) when asked the question of RED's current share price and its chart. BOTH were of the opinion RED is a surprisingly liquid stock for a share trading around the 20 cents mark, and whilst its recent trading range is quite large with a volatility of 5.6% (I think that's what he said) provided it stays at 17.0 cents or above, it remains a share on an uptrend. I got a lot of positive vibes from them about their technical analysis, hopefully others watching the show also got the same feelings!

They were not told and didn't seem to know that also the fundamentals of its Siana gold project suggest a valuation almost double its current price, that its got a huge amount of cash in hand at present, and that its got some of the most respected resources funds management groups on its register at present!


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## beatle (28 October 2010)

Just to keep myself amused whilst watching the game being played on RED trading I thought I would copy some interesting comments made elsewhere (HC):

Inaflap...

"Still love to know how do they trade/accumulate without treading on each others toes 

Do the Top 10 have each others phone numbers and take turns or what - Gentlemans agreement ?

Because if they all were as keen to accumulate as their respective portfolios suggest and their uptake in SPP @ 15c and 17c

They would blow the SP out of the water fighting each other to increase market share.

Lets face it they know what they got and are infinitely more patience than the usual mug punter"

I had a laugh when I read this post, its got some very interesting and funny questions within, I would also love to know the answers, and then we have a new poster today (with an interesting name!) that maybe could decipher the Da Vinci code (lol)...

Pauline69...
"Every time there is a run of sales like this today, have a look and you will see that it starts with one figure, then each descending quantity after that, is the previous figure divided by 4. It really is a game.
18 1 12:02 
18 3 12:02 
18 13 12:02 
18 53 12:02 
18 212 12:02 
18 847 12:02 
18 3,388 12:01 "

Then Bsredojie...
"Someone pulled the plug on Bots for the last hour.Did any human trade this stock today? It seems to me machine vs machine."

Just to answer the last question Bsredojie, yes there was some human intervention, I have bought a few more this morning! (And I am human, lol).

I also wonder what this trading is about, whether its a shuffling between players, but certainly minimal crosses in the trading so far today despite more than 5 million going through. It must be good for chartists eventually, you would have to call it accumulating at a base level, wouldn't you?


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## Hurricane (28 October 2010)

Has anyone any thoughts on the upcoming QEII announcement due out next Wednesday? There are a few market commentators out there heralding a downsized heli-drop by Bernanke. Looking at the current gold chart tells me the market may already be pricing that in. If that's the case you'll probably find a pullback in RED's SP leading up to the decision (and then a spike either way on the outcome). So maybe some of us here will get that buying opportunity in the next several trading days. Any thoughts?


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## beatle (28 October 2010)

Hi Hurricane, I agree that most economic commentators believe that QE2 will be downsized from the previous market expectations of around US$1 trillion to maybe minimal (IF ANY!), and that has been the main catalyst (according to others) in the stronger US dollar recently and drop in gold price. I think thats already been factored into the market, both generally and for RED.

I would add that in A$ terms the gold price has not come off nearly as much, as the A$ has also slid, being converse to US$ naturally.

To therefore suggest that RED will come off as a consequence though is a bold statement, I believe all the latest trading in RED has little to do with the gold price, I believe its more related to the jockeys riding this thing up and down, ie the insto's playing their games.

Of course if you don't hold now then you may get the chance to buy at a lower price, but I wouldn't be putting in bids lower than 17.0 cents (dare I put a jinx on it, lol!). I believe that 18.0 cents is still ok when the price upwards could be double, so that is why I bought more today.

Good luck to all looking at entering it lower, though.


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## Rick64 (28 October 2010)

well beatle been following you and all others in his thread still buying my average is now 20.5 but am acummilating as I can with my limtied funds. I hope to make this my retirement fund as I only have 20yrs work ;left in me thanks for all the info guys


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## andrewk65 (29 October 2010)

Hi all. Still keeping the faith ATM. Just wondered, now that apparently first lot of shares are issued(is that correct?) am I right in thinking that any change in holding by a substantial holder must be declared, however small? I guess this would also include any cgemanges as a result of dilution by new shares issued. I'm just wondering if that is correct, and also what is the usual time allowed from a change before announcement must be made. Any help would be appreciated, thanks guys.


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## Buckfont (29 October 2010)

Just noticed a whopping single trade of 56,000,000 shares at 8.22am today.

Can anyone shed any light on this? Thanks


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## beatle (29 October 2010)

Hi All, and some interesting developments by the look of it!

Firstly Rick64, its good to know you have not dropped out as I've got confidence that you will not regret your investment in time! I do worry about you when you are depending upon it as your future retirement fund, as no share is worth depending your entire future on (but having said that my holdings are now worth more than my house, lol!), and being the misplaced emotional shareholder that I am, and of MY RED shares, I have personal confidence that RED will finally reward those that stick it out. I don't believe for one minute that RED is due to dip much lower, if at all.

Buckfont, its an interesting observation you have made, all I note is that its a late crossing, maybe a change of ownership between associated holders possibly overseas. I can't see much else out of that, but should have you note that RED is now the domain of large Australian and overseas insto's so who knows how they move their holdings around to benefit tax or whatever other ploy they are up to.

As for the positive move on the gold price overnight I guess that doesn't help your expectation to rely on a falling gold price Hurricane to get shares lower, if there's any link between the two to start with! Despite the Aussie currency also strengthening overnight slightly there was actually a gain of A$10/oz, so if anything that should help the cause for RED if its relevant.

Andrew, as to your question regarding declaration of substantial shareholdings, if the rules are what they used to be, any move to a substantial shareholding (of 5% or more must be declared, and theoretically I think its 5 business days BUT in the case of those substantial shareholders not associated, ie non board member/management shareholders, it seems they tend to drag their feet if they want to play it that way! (The onus of that substantial shareholding notice is not RED's responsibility to declare, its the shareholder). But in the case of a change in substantial shareholdings, the declaration of the change in shares has only to be declared once there is at least a full 1% change in those holdings (that's what it used to be and i think that remains the case) - therefore if the take up shares pro rata to their holding in any capital raising you won't see the declaration made, unless they see it being strategic beneficial for their own purpose to do so! I would presume that most of the insto's that looked like taking up amounts via the placements, both the first tranche (that has already been allocated) and the proposed (to be voted on tranche) have done so on a pro rata basis except for any new participants which I understand there may well be (I understand that there might have been about 3 largish overseas insto's that have taken up shares for the first time via the recent plus proposed placements). I'm not sure if any of these 3 will come onto the register as new substantial shareholders, but I would like that to happen of course as it will confirm how strong the hold is by the insto's after the placements and how widely distributed the issue has been to new and influential insto's.

I note the RED quarterly has been released, I will comment on that later on today, except it seems very positive from my glimpse so far! (Today could be a stronger day IMO).


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## Hurricane (29 October 2010)

Beatle, my post was more of a conversation starter/observation rather than expectation. I actually purchased a parcel at this weeks low on Tuesday (not quite 56,000,000 though)
It's going to be interesting to see what effect Wednesdays decision will have on financial markets, especially oz's resource heavy one!


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## beatle (29 October 2010)

Its a shame you aren't in there for the 56 million plus a few more, it would be good to see a Substantial shareholder go on to RED's register by the name of Hurricane, lol!
In fact with regard to the RED share price, although its a sad state of affairs with the way the share price has been hanging for the past week and likely to continue, I also have been getting some dregs at these lower levels, and now hope to add a few more, dare I say it, at around 18.0 cents, hoping to get some more at that price before RED starts its next leg up! I'm hoping we will see another mini-dump during the day when someone wants to scare us out (and bring me further IN, lol!).


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## beatle (30 October 2010)

RED's quarterly report contained few surprises but confirmed and assured readers that everything appears on track to meet its deadline for first gold production in the second quarter of 2011, presumably late April or close to that time.
The cash position as of now is reasonably high:
At end of Sept, $48.7 million, plus placement (less fees) in Oct (around $16.3 million) = A$65 million, less anticipated quarter capex spend of an estimated $19 million, means RED likely to have A$46 million (plus US25 million loan drawdown in Dec, plus possible A$33.7 million second tranche placement). It suggests RED will have funds (if we assume A$1 = US$1) of around A$104 million at end of Dec 2010!!! Thats a lot of cash, which would amount to a cash backing alone of 8 cents per share (Ok, I know about half of that will be drawn down for the final capex requirement on Siana, but it illustrates that cash liquidity for RED will not be an issue in its development of Siana or its exploration efforts on Mapawa, IF we allow the second tranche of placement funds go through).
Mapawa commentary in the report is interesting, as there are clearly a lot of holes due to be reported on soon, and interestingly there is a comment that surface sampling confirms further anomalies outside of the main area of focus, but this is made as a bullet point in the summary with no back up information provided in the text that follows! Is that just sloppy reporting, or not relevant, or that it opens up a new chapter that RED didn't want out of the bag until it gives a more definitive status update report for Mapawa out soon as the assays are available for those 6 holes. I think the latter, but thats just my guess.
The gold-pre pay facility commentary refers to a minimum equity raise of $25 million as a pre-condition to drawdown, I wonder if RED put the commentary in that way to try to coerce the reader to presume we must vote YES on the second tranche of placement funds!!! I wonder if in fact the pre-condition is more about confirming specified funds and RED's cash liquidity that may well be in place currently in RED!!! I wonder.
All in all the report is positive in my reading of it, and confirms we will be investors in a gold producer soon enough. But I'm sure the fun and games (and wild ride) with the share price will continue for as long as the last placement remains outstanding!. After that (if the placement is approved) the share price should start reacting. If its not approved I can't see the insto's dumping, lol!!! It remains an interesting time for RED and us shareholders to ponder a few things. (Imagine the bots trying to out-con each other in licks of millions each trade rather then the 1 odd share being trade now by those Bots!)


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## beatle (1 November 2010)

Hi CEB2 (er Moit?),
I love your chartist's analysis (probably cos i think you are saying its got some positive signs and that it might be expected to move up based on certain charting criteria.

With regard to the voting at the AGM, WHEN you are ready to fill that out, you can put anyone who you think is going to attend the AGM, or if not sure best to put in Chairman who by default will have to vote on your behalf as you direct based on your indicated preferences.

Can I suggest you wait just a little longer, as I think there is something that needs to be clarified with regard to the Sprott pre-pay facility. In the quarterly its suggested that one of the pre-conditions to getting that loan RED has to have certain amounts of equity raised, and it might be a requirement that all current placements need to be completed before that pre-condition is achieved. I will call the company to clarify this and let you know what the outcome is to my call. I think its worth that clarification prior to putting in your vote. I realise that certain people (eg Yuyu) may have already voted No and indeed i may vote No as well but i want that clarification made first before i put my vote in. In fact if you want to rescind your vote, any subsequent proxy vote form you fill out effectively supercedes the previous vote that you put in, but I wouldn't suggest you do that as who knows if the company would want to acknowledge the second changed voting arrangement.

RED still have oodles of value left in it to move i believe, and I would hope that the move up on Friday afternoon is an indication that things are beginning to move, but there is no guarantee that it is since there have been many false starts so far to this re-rating happening.


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## anderbond (1 November 2010)

Hi Guys, Just read Beatle's comment re the company's mention of "surface sampling in the immediate vicinity (Mapawa) identifies further anomalies" and that this may infer a further resource outside of the current main area of focus. Having once again studied the RED sediments in the bottom of the glass, I fully agree with Beatle that this is unlikely to be sloppy reporting, and that there is a very high likelihood of further announcements in this respect to come. Of course there is near news with the Mapawa assay results, plus the accelerated drilling program.Exciting times ahead imo. AB


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## beatle (1 November 2010)

It appears that all the senior RED guys are out of office, with at least some of them in the Philippines, with the likelihood that they will be away for a period of time, up to a week (due back next Monday). Therefore I can't make the inquiry I had hoped for. 
It appears that things are starting to warm up with the level of activities onsite, both for Siana plus Mapawa, moving along nicely, and that is reflected in the share price maintaining its higher price of last week plus some!


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## Moit (1 November 2010)

Hi all RED club members, Ab and Beatle...

Beatle i seen you last Friday...

You were rubbing your hands together... I think it may have had something to do with the parcel of shares you'd bought the day before and the quick paper profit you had made, lol!!!

I myself would like to buy more as well, but with you and AB reading between the lines (which makes a lot of sense and which i agree with totally) i think i may have missed my opportunity, especially with the voting for the second tranche just around the corner. Ive been under the assumption Beatle that your a bit unsure as to how you will vote now. I was originally voting NO, but have since thought long and hard about it. 

Just a couple of points... Why would management even consider the second tranche, if it wasn't going to be put to good use, ie, Mapawa, Siana development, or just extra cash in the bank. I'm of the view its Mapawa and possibly something to do with the area outside of the focus point.. I think they know its there, if they haven't already FOUND IT. Lets not forget the six drill holes awaiting results and the comment that Mapawa could totally ECLIPSE SIANA !!! What have they found ? Its just my thoughts of course, but I'm leaning toward voting YES as I'm sure they will use the funds appropriately and accordingly. And on that subject Beatle and AB, you guys have been with RED many many years and i will certainly be listening to your thoughts and comments as to which way we should vote. Your intelligence and knowledge is an absolute virtue to the RED thread as well as us newbies that don't know the whole story behind RED...

One other thing Beatle i was reading the annual report and noticed the top 507 people have more than 100,001 securities. Well we all know where you stand, 21, HA HA !!! I wish they would narrow it down a tad more. Id like to know where i stand among some of us RED club members, lol. Its actually nice to know your in the top 500 odd and i know my vote will count...

Just my thoughts, regards Moit, GO RED !!!


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## mgm1a (1 November 2010)

I read the annual report cover to cover in w/end.
Moit i had also compared the number of holders from last year up about 50% and biggest group of 10,000-100,000 are up 60%. Also surprsingly few instos who weren't there last year so i think the 31 new instos mentioned previously have very few shares which i think will add to competition for them at some point.


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## beatle (2 November 2010)

Hi All RED'ites, great to see some very interesting comments on the RED thread! 
Mgm1a, your post regarding the size of the shareholdings on RED is most interesting, in fact I had never really considered what the individual holding of each of the 32 odd insto's referred to by RED actually was. Unless each of them holds RED in multiple names on the register, it appears that some of them must hold less than 4.83 million shares at 28 Sept 2010! That is a surprise, and I guess demonstrates that some of them have put a toe in the water, maybe also demonstrates their capacity to put more in if required! (Moit, actually if you consolidate my holdings you will find that I've got more than a toe in, actually more like my and my mrs entire body, lol!).

Maybe those insto's will be adding much more with this second tranche if WE approve it, and I do honestly believe, with no ego whatsoever, that we have the power to disapprove of it IF WE see it as in the best interests of RED. (I'm convinced that since all insto's apparently have been involved in tranche 1 placement they cannnot vote, and whilst G Edwards own votes will probably be voting FOR the resolution, most others allowed to vote could easily defeat the resolution if we want to vote as a block). But at the moment I remain undecided, and won't make that decision until I have had a chat with RED early next week. My biggest concern is all about whether RED will get the gold pre-payment facility if the second tranche is not approved. I believe we must ensure that RED does maintain liquidity, through this exciting phase of mine building at Siana, and can continue at its reasonable pace with the Mapawa exploration. 

I should emphasise that this issue is all about ensuring the efficient use of share capital but if it ends up impacting on liquidity and capacity to complete the work onsite appropriately then of course there is no question in my mind we should support the resolution. But its not the ideal outcome of course.

Regardless, as Anderbond has stated, there may well be more to it than we are aware of, it might also have something to do with Mapawa OR the possibility that RED is concerned about other corporates considering a takeover. It could even relate to a deal with regard to its neighbours such as Philex, with the combination of Boyongan, Bayugo, and Mapawa! If was a merger of those particular gold porphyry assets then I would have no hesitation of supporting their decision.

With regard to Deutsche Bank and that declared (beneficial) holding, I wonder if they hold that in principle or that its been shuffled across to their bank as collateral from an existing holder who may have moved it from Bank of America. It may not be an exiting of any shareholders at all! That's only a thought, I have no basis for that comment.

What I do wonder is whether the Bots are now facing off against each other
or, as Inaflap, suggests there is a gentlemans agreement as to who's turn it is to buy 1 share! Its an intriguing battle each day, and I was convinced that the Bots were trying to coerce shareholders to sell at 19.5 cents yesterday and one of them finally succumbed just before close, unfortunately. Not sure but I think the insto's want RED remain around 19 - 19.5 cents until the AGM.


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## anderbond (2 November 2010)

Hi RED clubhouse members, I have just received a letter from another shareholder urging me to vote against Resolution 10, on the grounds that smaller shareholders are being "shouldered aside for benefit of the big end of town". I have a lot of empathy with this view, and am of the opinion that the company should provide more explanation as to the reasons why the CR was doubled. While I believe there may be good reasons for this, it is time for the company to be more informative on its actions. AB


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## mgm1a (2 November 2010)

hi all, i have couple more comments from my annual report review, one i need to phone about but the second follows on from Beatle and Anderbond re 2nd placement and Mapawa.

On page 9 regarding financing, the inclusion of security over Mapawa in the terms sheets given to RED was "not considered an issue" until the discovery of a gold dominated porphyry changed the view substantially". Mapawa has obviously surprised even those in the know!

There is no mention on page 9 or remonstration about the warrants or their price...which confirms my earlier view i had that it may have be a piece of theatre / negotiating tactic with the ann. made. 

So a possible reason to rush more equity on board may be a defensive tactic against possible unwanted offers or to bulk up in the event of some possible merging or regional interests.


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## beatle (3 November 2010)

Hi All, and another interesting post Mgm1a, re DB finance and Mapawa.

Regarding Mapawa, since RED's work and focus has been on Siana for a number of years, I have always viewed my main reason to invest (or punt, lol) in RED has been the fundamental value that was likely to develop for Siana, and in it finalising its feasibility study with around 1 million ozs of gold I have thought that most other investors have got in for Siana. That gave me the confidence in RED since its cash backing has always been around mid-30 cents levels, and it has always traded at such a discount, primarily due to the doubts whether RED could develop the mine to its true potential.

With Mapawa coming on and confirming huge potential I wonder what more recent investors, esp insto's, has caught their interest in RED? More recently with the first holes confirming exciting potential I see Mapawa adding considerable blue sky value to RED share price, to possibly push the share price closer to $1.00 and beyond over time if it comes to fruition with a big resource around 100 million tonnes. In my mind its Siana that is the engine for RED. 

But maybe some of the insto's (especially the latest group from North America) are much more focused on Mapawa and its potential, and possibly even with a view that their investment will be taken out by some big corporate once Mapawa is confirmed the goliath that we hope for! Its interesting to note that most of the excitement with Mapawa has also developed since Anglo got off the RED register, it was certainly Anglo's intention to snatch Mapawa off the company with an opportunistic liaision developed early on when RED had no cash and was struggling along, and Anglo gave no assistance to RED during that time. 

Now RED is cash rich, in the the transition from explorer to signficant low cost gold producer, and Mapawa is starting to demonstrate its potential! 
Oh how things have changed for the better with RED. 

And remember, when we refer to Mapawa we are actually referring to one specific prospect at LSY, the whole of the Mapawa MPSA is much larger in area and likely to hold other significant targets for future exploration, AND the Siana MPSA has ALREADY confirmed the existence of substantial geophysical anomalies at Madja, etc, that could turn into additional major gold-copper porphyries as well! In the early exploration of those anomalies on Siana MPSA RED didn't have the money nor time to explore with real conviction, it just dabbled in the area to prove that it had some exciting prospects outside of the Siana gold deposit!

Now all we need to do is hold our nerve that last bit before the final push to its true re-rating - I wish the insto's would take their foot off the brake!


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## beatle (4 November 2010)

RED trading the last couple of days has been been reasonably subdued, with most waiting out the time for the AGM and the outcome of the funding arrangements. I'm convinced that the Bot led trading has tried to maintain a pricing around the 19 cents plus/minus 1 cent, to ensure that RED doesn't run away with a substantial premium to the placement price in the meantime. In fact I think for those that are bullish RED and have an interest to add a bit more to their shares, now is a good time on the dips - I have been adding very slowly despite being way over-weight. My only concerns, of outside interference with things such as QE2/US economy, seem to continue to keep things reasonably positive although there is a possibility of a broader market pullback sometime soon - the markets have gone up and up the past month or so IMO. 
I'm not sure if we will get a Mapawa update until later, possibly not until immediately before the AGM - IMO RED management clearly don't want to influence the markets too much prior to that all important vote, but they are caught in delicate position:
They don't want to put too bullish a picture out there on Mapawa potential in case it causes the share price to widen the premium from the placement price, but they will want to inform shareholders at the AGM of the latest Mapawa information, so my bet is that we will get an update about 2 days before the AGM (just after the postal votes are due in for the AGM!). Of course I might be wrong and be pleasantly surprised, but we have got a couple of weeks to see if that's how it pans out.
(You could argue that RED must maintain continuous disclosure, but its possible to hold off announcing results by delaying assay results being received and checked etc etc, or is that my cynical side coming out?).


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## RADV (4 November 2010)

As always, thanks to all for their continuous commentary about RED!

Yes, hoping for an announcement soon Beatle. You could certainly read between the lines in the Annual Report when they say things such as deciding not to go with certain finance arrangements because the arrangements could 'ultimately be very expensive should the company continue to expand the resource base...' Very exciting!


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## beatle (4 November 2010)

Hi RADV, its an interesting time with regard to the real activity that clearly is happening on the ground behind the scenes to the share trading but is really the main game. Yet the share trading is fascinating, at the moment we have 1main seller, of just over a million shares and each time someone takes some of those shares a little BOT bit (I presume!) adds to the sell side!


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## hugh_jarzz (4 November 2010)

Whatever spin is put on the current situation, existing shareholders are potentially being  diluted by a MASSIVE 30%....think about it! I hold this stock for the potential I see in both Siana and Mapawa, and my long-term view on gold pricing. I do NOT hold the company for their "ability" to manage all that extra cash right now. They are a mining company for God's sake, not an investment house! Sure, a little extra to tide them over is fine, BUT, I'm just totally against rubber-stamping this further dilution. I personally believe management has been blinded by Sprott et al as to the benefits of having US centric investors on board to help fund future expansion...yeah right! To think that these guys will stump up money in the future, to finance hopefully, Mapawa, is a pipe dream. They are realists and will jump off the merry-go-round, particularly if the current management continue with their seemingly laissez-faire attitude to both getting things done, and to reporting to shareholders. My vote is a VERY firm NO.


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## beatle (4 November 2010)

Hi Hugh_Jarzz, I get your drift!

As to your general sentiments as to the placement, I agree that the second tranche placement, which is subject to the vote at the AGM, appears to be a cash grab beyond what is required to complete Siana build plus carry on the exploration at Mapawa. The first tranche of 102 million shares has already been done by RED, and that guarantees the company is well cashed up for those funds required in the short term. 

Your comment that "being diluted by a MASSIVE 30%" is factually incorrect of course, since the second tranche represents about 18.4% of the shares now on issue - as I say, the first tranche has already been done! The interesting thing, which I did note in a previous post, is that the resolution is double barrelled, in that it seeks BOTH the ratification of the first lot plus approval to do the second lot! That means if the resolution is not passed then RED MUST come back to shareholders for any future funds being sought within the following 12 months of having made the first placement, to seek refresh! That put's RED in an interesting situation, now it really requires shareholders agreement for any short term capital raising, and I for one didn't understand why they actually combined the ratification with the approval in the same resolution!!!

But as I have now made comment on many times, the ONLY issue that I have at present is a comment in the quarterly that the Sprott funding requires certain equity being raised as a pre-condition. I would like to confirm with management first before I make a decision on whether to vote no on the resolution. Clearly I don't want to have RED have insufficient cash for developing the project, but if thats not an issue then I would prefer we cut any additional dilution.


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## qldfrog (4 November 2010)

my No vote has already been sent;as a smaller shareholder, mgt can and will screw us, but do not expect me to bend over, and I will remember this for any IPO where the same names surface;


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## beatle (5 November 2010)

Good day RED members, what an incredible time with gold breaking out again and the overseas markets going wild, with the aussie dollar now supreme against the US dollar - its a positive for RED in terms of any capex required to be met in US dollars, but does nothing for the valuation of RED as the currency keeps the US gold price in check, but at least its a positive sign to the markets that gold overall is not ready to tank itself!

In trading early today I note that the smallish capper which sat at 19.5 cents yesterday and was being chewed ever so slightly, had shrunk from more than 1 million shares to be down to 516,000 odd shares by start of today, and moved back to 20.5 cents at start of trade, and now seems to have disappeared. Whether they have decided to think again in trying to hold the share price down or decided not to fight the rising tide for now not sure, all I know is that yesterday I got a few more shares, thanks for that mate!


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## beatle (6 November 2010)

This post will be controversial, but something that needs to be aired and considered by all, and best posted during the off-trading time of the weekend!!!

The RED thread on ASF tends to be fairly low key, and generally involves commentary of a supportive nature to RED invesment and its chronic highly discounted share price based on fundamental value of Siana. It has been the bane of my life this shareholding RED, knowing that we have never received full value for our shares despite it having considerable upside, not just because of the exploration potential at Mapawa, but also at the core gold project at Siana!

However, at HC there are a number of more vocal and disenchanted shareholders. Most are genuine in their criticism, and some are longer term shareholders, one of whom is someone called Councilgritter ("CG"). Over the years CG and I have had some interesting dialogue, and one of the main points of our discussions has been RED management. 

I have tried to modify my previously highly critical (and previously outspoken) view on this topic over the years, which all revolves around the frustration of having Siana development take so long. In recent times I therefore have focused on the positives of the company, and the slow but certain progress of its development, and to consider the positives of RED from an investment point of view. CG has kept a much lower profile, who acknowledges the discounted value of RED, but now and again posts with some very salient points that should not be ignored by anyone either investing in RED or considering an investment in RED.

This resolution 10 is a case in point for CG who, clearly out of frustration, made the following comment (a portion of the post only!):
"I certainly would only give management a 2 out of 10, however, these guys have struck it lucky with all the stars seemingly aligned in their favour. It's a classic case of a great resource, run by monkeys, however, given the huge free kick they have had with the run in the bullion price, they should just about scrape through, but, if only they had a Rowan Williams from Avoca or any of another half dozen other hard-working mining men involved, RED would be a stand-out. That it's a slow, slow struggle, says it all. I'm still a long-term holder however."

I can only agree wholeheartedly with his comment that the stars certainly have aligned for RED, and clearly its the events out of control of RED such as a rampant gold price and recovery of equity markets (particularly aided by circumstances with China's rise and the US' fall) that have been instrumental in lifting RED to this unenviable position. 

I would like to add that the long gestation of RED getting this project to this stage has been very frustrating to us all. Even to RED management! And that the MD who has been charged with the bulk of organising the various phases of outstanding tasks and has finally been able to conclude most of them. I have no doubt that his direct involvement and tenacity at the project has been rewarded by finally overcoming those many obstacles. I for one would have thrown the towel in long ago trying to cope with all the frustrations - so I do give credit to the MD, as a person for having achieved this success with the project going through the washing machine over the years.

But times have now changed! Clearly RED board has had a rethink in recent times with regard to the skill set of board members, including the replacement of 2 directors by others with more experience in the development of projects, with assisting the future development of Siana etc. I would like to think that the board is now close to considering the future of RED with regard to the person chosen to lead the company forward as MD. 

I have held a long time view (and earlier on, a much more outspoken view!)that RED has been affected negatively with its management structure, having the Managing Director based in the Philippines, and the non-executive Chairman seemingly responsible for the financing arrangements with the company. My view has always been that the MD should be in control of the company leading all aspects of it from a corporate level, and be in a position to ably represent the company as necessary to the market, its potential investors/lenders/shareholders etc. Since RED is an ASX listed company, with the majority of its shareholders being Australian (including most insto's) then the RED MD should be based in Australia, and working for the benefit of the company. And preferably with a skill set more aligned to one of a financial, corporate or investment aspect, not a geologist with mainly technical skills. And certainly not continuing the arrangement with the MD based in the Philippines who has had to run with the project on the ground, developing it further at the same slow and steady pace, as it has done through all the past years guiding it through all hoops and hurdles that will confront it in coming years. 

I believe that RED board now has a responsibility to recognise that current shortcoming, and force change now as it is necessary for the company going forward to extract maximum value for its long-suffering shareholders. If RED seeks to have its shareholders remain involved with the company during this next exciting phase then it should seriously consider this issue. 

This is not to say that the current MD should be removed from the project, I have no doubt that he still provides a key link between the company and the various stakeholders and government departments within the Philippines (and he clearly likes being in the Philippines), although the March 2010 appointment of a "Project Director" may be somewhat overskilling this requirement but I'm not the one to judge that.

I guess that Resolution 10 at the AGM is initiating this discussion of mine, as it epitomises long endured frustrations of longer term shareholders in RED. In my view, the events leading up to the drafting up of Resolution 10 was definitely something that RED could of, and should of, had complete control of. Now its left up to us as shareholders either to accept a passive view that the insto's will do the right thing and therefore vote YES of this resolution, or more aggressively force our opinion and vote NO, that opens up the door to a more risky outcome but potentially more rewarding in the longer term for us shareholders. 

Unfortunately we only have guidance from RED management that now recommends we take the passive road and vote YES, without any additional information as to why we should trust that such a large capital raising is necessary and in our best interests - on the face of it, certainly its against RED's own commentary just a few months ago when they announced their intention to raise US$40 million (these subsequent events are now seeing us confronted with the possibility of it being increased to US$76 million, thereby blowing out the shares on issue!!!).

I believe that RED needs to make a strong statement to the market within the next week, to guide us more as to why we should vote YES and consider this significantly bigger capital raising, at such a discount, at a time when we expect to have Siana developed on time and on budget as stated in recent ASX announcements.

And soon thereafter I hope that RED board does announce the future progression of the company with the appointment of a new MD. Sure as anything those insto's will force this change in due course IF Resolution 10 is passed, and if its not passed then maybe they will still force the change anyway, as they have overall control now regardless!


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## beatle (6 November 2010)

I just noticed an article published last week prior to the announcement of details on USA's QE2 outcome, it refers to Sprott Asset Management, who has recently come onto the share register of RED5, and is the provider of the gold pre-payment loan proposed for drawdown in December 2010. It gives you an idea of Sprott's current investment view on gold and gold stocks (such as RED).
The link is: http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/10/29/the-case-for-gold-stocks/ 

I copy some small excerpts of that article below which are most relevant to investors in RED re outlining Sprotts view:

"Despite the buzz you've heard about gold and silver over the last two months, the stocks haven't caught up," write Eric Sprott and David Franklin of gold-pushing Sprott Asset Management in Toronto. "We expect that to change over the next two quarters as investors realize how much stronger gold producers' earnings will be at $1,350 gold."

and

"If you haven't participated in gold's recent rise, don't fret, because the fun has only just begun," Sprott and Franklin write. "At $1,300 gold, these companies literally have a license to print money."

That gives us a fairly recent commentary of their bullish outlook for investment in gold equities such as RED, which is also due to get a re-rating in line with its starting up of gold production in April 2011.


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## mardo (6 November 2010)

Dear Beatle.
This is all a beat up as you & I know , the 2nd tranch of shares is a done deal.I ask you to look at the voting on the 290 mio shares issued as at 10/12/2009 when the 2nd tranch of 192 mio shares  were approved at a price of  15.5 c--
112,685,160 in favour against 120.500 against and the U.S.gold price had reached about 1250  dollars.I suggest the A$ price  of gold is now less than it was at that time, therefore it is now arguable that this is a good deal for all Red shareholders at this time.
I am sure that all the institutional shareholders who bought at that time will also be supporting this additional raising.
The big sleeper in all of this  of course is how big  is Mapawa going to be?
Any funds recieved now wil be very beneficial to all holders in the future but may not materialise untill Sciana gets nearer to production. 
These are my currant thoughts and I will be at the A.G.M.  on the 23rd.
Regards   Mardo


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## beatle (7 November 2010)

Hi Mardo, I would like to make a number of points with regard to Resolution 10, some of which i have mentioned before, in reply to your view that is a done deal. I believe it definitely is not a done deal!

Firstly, your observation of that past vote and it getting the nod of approval from shareholders at that time is similar, is incorrect, I believe the circumstances and the requirements were very different and for that reason it was supported by all, including me. I had no problems with the reason RED seeking the cash, therefore i also voted yes, as it ensured RED was on the path to developing Siana, that cash was absolutely essential, and it has worked out well for RED since that time. 

Now the Resolution is all about significantly more cash than is actually required to complete both Siana development and continue substantial exploration of Mapawa over the coming 12 month period in my opinion. IF there is another reason to justify such a significant capital raising, then let RED management tell us first - in the Explanatory Notes about the Resolution they have not explained nor justified as necessary. IF there is a valid reason then I will accept it, I just haven't seen it. And the fact it says "up to 198 million", I won't accept - if RED get the approval it will be ALL (not "up to 198 million"), I have no doubt about that, especially since it was 4 times over-subscribed!

Ok, now about your point whether its a done deal and the Resolution will be passed. Consider this:

1. It appears on the face of it that all the existing insto's in RED who seem to have at least 2/3 of the shares in RED have been a party to the first tranche of the placement (and most likely also the proposed tranche to boot). But the very fact that RED has linked the ratification of the first tranche with the approval of the second tranche in the SAME resolution, means that anyone involved in EITHER of the tranche 1 or tranche 2 placements cannot vote on the Resolution! Thus it appears that no institution will be able to vote this Resolution.

2. IF you look at the top 20 shareholders, most are insto's or representing insto's from my reading of it, other than Thomas Cumming (7 mil), GE (6.8mil), LG (6.8mil), and SM (5 mil) and some smaller holdings around 6 mil or less that appear to be smaller private companies. I'm not sure whether David Teoh (39.8 mil) would have been offered any, but I would be surprised if he wasn't offered and didn't take up shares under the first tranche and therefore can't vote in this Resolution - his right to vote and his attitude to the vote is critical IMO. I have no doubt that GE will vote FOR, probably LG will vote FOR, but I think SM will vote against! 

Anderbond has commented that he has received a letter from a disenchanted RED shareholder who believes the Resolution to smaller shareholders, seeking the support of all to actively vote against the Resolution. I have also received that letter in each of my separate holdings! I assume that the disenchanted shareholder has sent many on the RED shareholder register, or maybe some of the larger holders (say above some level, maybe 100,000 shares and above, or maybe the entire register but i think not so exhaustive as that) seeking that support against the Resolution. I believe this will likely result in a great deal of support against it.

When you look at that analysis, in fact the votes FOR are not necessarily going to be anything like the tearaway vote that happened last time. It could in fact be a huge landslide vote NO against the resolution!

I still am yet to decide. I still seek some clarification in the coming week, and I will certainly post my conclusion based on the discussion I have with RED. I have one concern, previously posted, about whether the failure of Resolution 10 having a material impact on the future drawdown of the gold loan pre-payment. If it does materially affect RED's capacity to drawdown then I will vote YES. Of course there maybe other, undisclosed reasons which RED maybe can't divulge to anyone, including in private shareholder discussions, and if that is the case, then my conclusion may well be incorrectly based, but thats a fact that I risk taking. 

I do believe though, that voting against the Resolution does have the potential to increase risk with RED share price, in terms of losing out on some insto support, and possible liquidity, and I will weigh that up once I have had the discussion with RED.


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## mardo (7 November 2010)

Hi again Beatle,
I understand some of your points put but I still believe it will be a done deal.
Just look at the share price while Red was in limbo prior to then.On 5/8/10
they announced"Debt financing package under review"and what happened to the share price ,
Between 11/8/10 and 27/8/10   Low 11.5 c  High  13cents  also
Between 22/9/10 and 5/10/10   low  16.0 c  High  16.5 cents. I also realize there was a lot of strange   Bot trades going on during this period .
This is why I bilieve the 17 cents should be viewed as a reasonable pricing for such a large placement even though it will dilute us by about 18% as you have previously stated(if you disregard the 1st tranch,) which could have been approved by managements 15% rule.
I also agree us shareholders are not being told the full story by Red management as they should under the continuous disclosure rules of ASIC ,but thats a matter to be bought up at the AGM.
Only time will tell  and I do value your thoughts.


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## beatle (8 November 2010)

Hi Mardo once again, I do agree with your general comments regarding the pricing - I don't have a problem with the pricing of the placement that has been made, from my point of view the run up in share price certainly did post-date the obvious timing of the announcement, whether that be the market anticipating the announcement or it being forced up by certain parties. 

The issue is more about the quantum of the equity raising, and that alone.
I would like to think that the bigger equity raising is in consideration of a bigger investment foray by RED within the general area surrounding Siana/Mapawa, such as a deal regarding Philex or similar. In that event I would wholeheartedly support the bigger capital raising as it would be part of a bigger growth strategy for RED, and in my mind provide a base for a much larger company in the process!


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## beatle (9 November 2010)

I spoke with one of the senior RED management team today, and it was confirmed that as outlined in the Quarterly, a pre-condition of the future drawdown of the gold pre-payment loan in December, has a requirement to firstly raise at least US$25 million through equity. That means that if Resolution 10 fails to approve the second tranche of funding then Sprott would have to acquiesce from its requirement to meet that equity funding to enable drawdown. That means instead of just voting out the second tranche of placement funds we may well be voting out the pre-payment loan funds as well, thus it would be line-ball as to whether RED has sufficient funds in-house to finalise development of Siana without some additional funding arrangement, and since the failure to refresh the 15% would also require another Gen Meeting and approval of shareholders for another equity raise, whether it be a rights issue, spp or some other placement arrangement.

Thus its a risky decision to vote against Resolution 10, notwithstanding the fact that RED management should never have put the company in this predicament. 

As a consequence I will consider this more before I make a final decision on whether to support the Resolution (against my views of it being a less attractive option) or vote it down! I suggest all shareholders should carefully consider that risk as well before making a decision. I welcome any other thoughts on this most important issue as soon as possible.

I don't agree that its "a given" that the Resolution will be passed regardless of what we smaller shareholders vote, I believe that the vote could in fact be a landslide vote against the company due to the distribution of that letter by the shareholder I have referred to previously. Therefore your vote should not be used as a way to send a message, it should be used to get exactly what you consider the best outcome will be for the RED share price, regardless of your own view about it being a dilutionary placement. I would like to think that anyone attending the AGM will make that general comment known to RED board, to let them know they have been very lax in forcing this issue upon us!


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## Moit (9 November 2010)

Hi Beatle, and thanks for getting in touch with RED management in regards to RES 10.
 By the sounds of it they have put the company and us share holders in a bit of a predicament, (or have Sprott given RED only ONE option). Do WE as a smaller share holder really have a choice in the matter? I believe we do! But do we want to see Siana go from explorer to producer, by the second quarter in 2010? Do we want to see accelerated exploration at Mapawa, that could in turn, totally eclipse the Siana project? On the other hand do we really want to go through this financing process for a second time just to get Siana off the ground? Admittedly it could turn out for the better, but would mean a major delay in the first gold pour. Or it could just be another complete disappointment, which would also incur major delays, and also an old share price of 12 cents... Need i say more, but again, just my thoughts....


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## beatle (9 November 2010)

Hi Moit, I'm truly grateful for your comments and view on this darn Resolution 10. AND I agree with your thoughts entirely.

Whilst i am still formulating my view and continuing to weigh up the pros and cons to this most important issue further, my thoughts are similar to yours, of: Do we want to put at risk the timing of the development of Siana, and the risk that some of the insto's may pull out at this time and probably drop the share price?

I would like to be able to put in a protest vote and vote against the resolution, but i am thinking that it could cost us more than its worth, to do so! 

There is no point in putting the future path in doubt at this highly critical time, despite it affecting the full value of the investment - as i have said before, my valuation suggests that without the excessive capital raising Siana value in RED is about 38 cents, whereas with this excessive capital raising drops the value to about 32.5 cents. So, even though the very thought that they have forced us down this road, whether Sprott angled for it or not, has caused that drop in valuation, at least if it proceeds it doesn't put at risk the development of Siana, it enables Mapawa value to be fully tested, and we should be able to achieve a value around 32.5 cents just on Siana, within the next months, with Mapawa value adding to that valuation.

But as a protest, I would like to think that someone is able to go to the AGM and put that protest to the board, at least in words if not in votes, to have a go at RED. I might arrange to attend the AGM, depending on how things are on the home front.

By the way, whether its absolutely true or not, I was told that the company do not believe that any insto's currently on the register are dropping shares at the moment, with any intention to pick up more in that second tranche! That could mean some other share traders are using the current time of uncertainty to deliberately frighten others in the RED market!

My pondering continues.


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## beatle (9 November 2010)

On a completely different issue that relates to RED and other gold equities, I saw an interesting analysis on CNN, that refers to gold's record high:

"One caveat on gold. The precious metal remains miles away from its true peak, when adjusted for inflation. Gold hit its real record on Jan. 21, 1980, when it rose to $825.50 an ounce. Adjusted for inflation from 1980 dollars to 2010, that translates to an all-time record of $2,184.08 an ounce."

Does that mean gold could go even much further in this current run to test that all-time cpi adjusted gold price?

Talk about RED being very lucky with its timing of developing a gold mine!


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## anderbond (9 November 2010)

Hi Beatle, thanks for the additional information on the 2nd tranche and the impact of a negative vote. I was interested to know if there was any additional comment from senior management regarding the increased CR and the impact of this on smaller shareholders? AB


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## mgm1a (9 November 2010)

I would like to propose to ASF readers that instead of / as well as your on vote on Resol. 10 that a protest vote be made by voting against the re-appointment of one of the directors that we select to make a voice from retail investors be known. Any thoughts?


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## beatle (9 November 2010)

Anderbond, Mm1a, what are your views with regard to Resolution 10 - I'm interested in both of your views as to what is the most sensible outcome for us smaller shareholders? Particularly as to how it might affect our investments thereafter.

Mgm1a, its an interesting suggestion, I must admit I laughed when I read it! From what I have observed most of the work on the finance side appears to come from CJ, but if we didn't have him involved I shudder to think what might have happened to date! I don't suggest that CJ should be used as the protest vote as I don't think we have anyone else on the board that is capable of filling that role at present. Do you have any suggestion? And as I have posted previously, the role I consider that RED is lacking is a true MD that represents the corporate side of the company's activities rather than just the project side - and the irony is that the MD position never comes up for rotation, as a result of the company's Constitution.


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## qldfrog (9 November 2010)

why only voting against one?
the self serving insto puppet can not have my vote;
 if for once you can influence outcomes and not be a casualty, as a shareholder, it is your duty to act and defend your rights;
We wait years, provide the seed capital for no return for ages and end up scr...ed
no thanks
I hope this does not appears too virulent ...


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## beatle (10 November 2010)

Hi Qldfrog, thanks for your view. 

Before I answer I will put my situation in context so that you know where I am coming from to have arrived at my view. 

I am a long time shareholder in RED. I have no other affiliation with RED, other than knowing most of the senior management, and I have been to Siana site. I am also aware of the hard times in RED, not just going back a few years, but going back before RED was called RED (it was called GREENstone, lol), and that means even before they had a project called Siana! I have no other relationship to RED management. I have a considerable investment in RED (of course not as many as the top institutions, and I hold them in multiple names) and despite Smity's claim I still hold those shares, and in fact very recently bought more! 

AND I am not being paid anything to state my view (I am not a consultant nor contractor to RED, and never have been).

Therefore, my only issue is to make sure the share price of RED goes up, with rational, logical thought behind any decision that I make that could influence the outcome of this Resolution - and without knowing anything about who may and may not be able to vote on this Resolution from inside the company, other than to know that anyone who gets shares in tranche 1 or 2 related to this placement cannot vote, I still firmly believe that we smaller shareholders do have considerable power in the outcome of the Resolution. I am not interested in seeking revenge with this vote, and whilst I am resentful of what RED has done, I will not use that as the basis for making my decision on which way to vote.

Having given it a couple of days to consider the machinations of how both options may play out, I will probably vote FOR the Resolution, as I am concerned that there is a risk, even if its slight, that without the approval RED may not be able to finalise the pre-payment loan of US$25,000 - that was confirmed to me when I made the inquiry earlier this week. If that was the case, then a NO vote would seriously affect the development schedule at Siana, as without any further placement approval and no ratification of the tranche 1 placement, RED would have to go to another General Meeting to seek any additional capital raising via placement and in the case of a rights issue or SPP (which I am dead against as it will kill the share price for a considerable period of time at this very critical time!).

I believe therefore that it is in all our best interests, even small shareholders, to vote YES, to make sure that RED does have the cash to develop the project. 

I will state further, that I am completely disappointed with the arrangements for the finance, I believe that RED has not acted in the best interests of all shareholders with this funding arrangement, but they have already put it in place and there is no alternative possible at this time that can provide us all with a better outcome with less risk and better reward! Therefore in voting I have decided to accept the better of 2 not so great alternatives. I have accepted that the valuation of RED, on the basis of Siana alone, will drop from high 30's cents, down to low 30's cents. (The exact value now is changing hourly depending upon what gold price and exchange rate you use!).

Mgm1a's suggestion of voting against any of the directors up for rotation as a protest is actually a reasonable suggestion as clearly any insto's voting will support their re-election so they won't be removed but our protest will be registered. In addition I believe that anyone going to the AGM (and I may decide to make the trip) should grill the board on this placement issue with vigour! And once again, I am not talking about price of the placement, I am referring solely about the quantum of the placement and the inefficient use of share capital!

If anyone who reads this post and agrees with my view, but has already put their vote in, they can rescind that first vote by sending in another changed vote by simply putting a later date on the voting slip - it will automatically override your earlier vote.


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## Moit (10 November 2010)

HI Beatle and all other RED club members. Quite a few interesting points Beatle. You certainly have a way with words, and thats in a good way mate.. I hadn't realized you had been to Siana. I may get there one day, until then i might just sit back for a bit and see where my holdings take me!

In regards to your last post, SPOT ON !! I really couldn't have said it any better myself. No i mean that, lol. 

Lets face it , it is a major risk to go against the RES 10. There are so many  projects, margins, milestones at jeopardy. The main thing at this stage is SIANA. We are trying to get it up and running and the more we disagree, the further it would be halted back from development. I have ticked 5,6,7,8,9 and was just waiting on a bit more feed back from like-minded people such as yourselves before i sent it.

And lets not forget to mention the share price, currently sitting near all time highs, well close enough anyway. Its certainly far from high 30's and even low 30's. But realistically why do we even invest in RED? Is it because we just love management so much, we'd thought we'd throw some money their way and hope for the best out come? Or is it because we believe in RED and value RED as a company. Lets be truly Honest. We are all in this to make money, from the MD at the top down to us smaller shareholders. WE are not in it to whine and moan and criticize about the way it should be done. We are in it to make a buck !! To watch that Sp soar. And if the fundamentals are right behind the company, then why not invest.

I will be voting for Resolution 10 as i believe in RED as a company and believe they will be producing gold in the second quarter of 2011 !!


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## beatle (10 November 2010)

Thanks Moit for both your compliment and also your view which I agree with, and you have got a way with words yourself. I'm a bit disappointed with some of the posts on HC at present, seems Smity et al are trying very hard to stir us small guys up (I congratulate Fatsoh with his analysis), and although I'm disappointed with the alternatives we have been faced with I won't be cutting off my nose to spite my face! Even at 33 cents (plus whatever Mapawa will contribute later on) RED is remains a bargain, and with these extra heavy hitters waiting in line for our vote I'm sure they will be very motivated to add some premium to Siana valuation soon after the AGM (but don't expect it the next day!).

As a matter of interest MML has gone through the roof (even though its retracing a bit today), and at a market cap of over $1 billion demonstrates what could happen to RED once we have got some strong Mapawa drilling information (note one of my previous posts that I don't believe they will put anything out for Mapawa until just prior to the AGM in order not to upset the voting outcome - that's just my view of course!). Thus if RED managed to get a similar market cap based on excellent Siana gold production plus Mapawa drilling, then RED can still get to $1.00! Ok MML has done everything right with marketing etc, but maybe once the development of Siana is behind us then marketing will become a priority with RED too.

(As an aside Moit, we could certainly agree to meet at Siana at the time of the mine opening, Fastbuck etc has suggested they may be able to get there - just don't eat the volut (spelling?) if you go!).


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## jeffTH (10 November 2010)

Hello Beatle and Moit.  I wish to congratulate you both on your well thought out posts in relation to Res 10.  I don't believe that the way to register a protest vote against management is to jeopardise the finances of RED in doing so.  Many companies finances are stretched and limit the exploration and development they can undertake.  We are not in this category!  I hope that RED management will use their capital wisely in fast-tracking the expected good results from Mapawa after getting Sianna to production.

I rarely post as I am not in a position to contribute technically and there is so much waffle already on RED on HC that I am not going to add to it here.

I value the posts on ASF as being a vital part of my research.

I will be voting FOR Res 10.

Cheers.....


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## anderbond (10 November 2010)

Hi Beatle and others, I posted a long commentary this morning but somehow I must have stuffed up getting it into the system. So rather than recreate it, I will summarise:
I will vote in favour because I continue to have great confidence in senior management to both get Siana up but also to create substantially greater medium term value with Mapawa and other highly prospective sites within the held areas. I have come to the view that while Siana is the immediate centre of activity in the short term, it has virtually become a given and the real driver of the SP will be Mapawa and anything else they find. Beatle correctly points towards the MML SP. It seems to me that RED has some chance to emulate or even surpass the future prospectivity of MML, so in a sense, the future RED SP may surprise even the more optimistic of us. I personally think senior management has done an outstanding job in getting the Siana project to where it is, start the process of identifying the future of Mapawa, PLUS get a number of the shrewdest global institutional investors on board for the next phase. Sorry Beatle but I do not subscribe to the idea of replacing the MD. I believe he is a very conservative operator, and in my mind that is really what one wants with this kind of investment. The marketing aspects will be taken care of in due course.............in fact they have started already by virtue that the North Americans and Londoners are on board. A future listing in Toronto and or London is not out of the question either. It is in fact very difficult to attract larger institutional support to these projects as there is a massive smorgasbord of opportunities available across the globe from which to choose.
So to complete what is meant to be a short message, I remain completely supportive of management, cannot agree with many of the comments that I have read here and on HC (as there is far too much greed or some other agenda at work with most of them) , and will vote in favour of Res 10. AB


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## mardo (10 November 2010)

Hi Anderbond,
Well done with your last post exactly as I have been thinking re the CR and other aspects of the debt package.This should put Red5 in an enviouse position with Sciana  nicely bedded down and the prospect of much larger resource to come from Mapawa.This will only be posative for all shareholders.


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## fastbuck1 (10 November 2010)

well after reading some logical and unbiased posts i have changed my no vote to yes, i would rather take a bullet to the foot rather  the guts, if siana will be worth the low 30s with the exstra shares out then that be it , but what aso needs to be concidered the extra cash will surport the sp until spent and if spent????, i keep thinking of the 20 mill set aside for mapawa thats a hell of alot of money to spend drilling, they must know there's something huge down there to splash 20 mil on , if we can pull a few cents with some good result from further drilling this will more than make up for the extra shares ....my veiw only


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## mgm1a (10 November 2010)

Hi all, beatle, anderbond, mardo et al thanks for insights
My view is that i don't want to get bitter about these things - i will tick the abstain box. I don't agree with Yes, and I also don't want a No to hold things up (haha , as if my holding could, even if i multiplied by 100!) 

I was impressed by directors, i hadn't realised their experience but have decided to vote against Resol 4, Gary Scanlan, as a protest, not that he has done anything wrong. I also think it not constructive to vote against other too! One is enough to get message across without disturbing the business.

I am expecting the company to explain itself more:
* they need to re-define the business strategy (the web and anns. clearly state the focus is, just, to develop Siana....this now appears old-hat and redundant..but they need to expound to include Mapawa and a possible vision of a greater play in the region). Something for the MD to do now that there is a PM on site.
* more attention to regular update on progress: with insto holdings bedded down for long term and rising POG there will be less free float but any occasional rebalance of one or two instos will hose the SP quickly

I believe the extra dilution for $10m extra should translate into extra oz. within a short period and would expect the AGM would outline it better than being just extra "working capital" as in the explanatory memorandum

Too far for me to get to the AGM (over the ditch and far away) but i'd like to

good luck to all.


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## beatle (11 November 2010)

Wow, so many new posts since I checked it, with many wise views expressed, and great to get JeffTH's post as well!

I guess most of us longer term holders can see the merits of voting FOR resolution 10, whether it be because we really believe that management have done a great job and should support their objectives, or because we believe its in the best interest of the company going forward despite the extra shares issued. I hope for RED's sake (and therefore our sake as shareholders) Resolution 10 does get through, and that Siana is guaranteed of final development in the second quarter of next year - that alone is probably worth a few cents on the share price, and it will hasten a premium to valuation. 
I would like to think that the new insto's can demonstrate their support to RED with on-market purchases, in a similar fashion to Baker Steel, and previously by Matthews. I believe that the insto's are doing very little of the buying/selling at present, just trying to maintain the share price in a tight range prior to the AGM. 

Once the AGM is over and hopefully have approval for the placement we finally get on with the re-rating. I am very interested to see some more information on Mapawa exploration, and I hope if this placement is approved that RED increases its field activities within both Mapawa and Siana MPSA's with low cost exploration to demonstrate the prospectivity of each area for additional gold/copper porphyry deposits, that will surely put a rocket to the share price once the market becomes aware of how extensive the mineralised systems are in the district!


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## RADV (11 November 2010)

fastbuck1 said:


> well after reading some logical and unbiased posts i have changed my no vote to yes, i would rather take a bullet to the foot rather  the guts, if siana will be worth the low 30s with the exstra shares out then that be it , but what aso needs to be concidered the extra cash will surport the sp until spent and if spent????, i keep thinking of the 20 mill set aside for mapawa thats a hell of alot of money to spend drilling, they must know there's something huge down there to splash 20 mil on , if we can pull a few cents with some good result from further drilling this will more than make up for the extra shares ....my veiw only




Agree - I too will change my vote to yes after considering all points raised.


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## Hurricane (11 November 2010)

Just as an aside from all the AGM stuff, RED is a buy on the MACD signal at the moment. I'm thinking next week might be a good one for the SP.

As you were..............


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## Moit (11 November 2010)

Hi all RED club members and hi jeffTH. id just like to thank you for your kind words. I also hope management will fast track the expected good results coming out of Mapawa and get Siana to production. I have absolute faith in them, that thats what will happen.

I know i mentioned in my previous post that we are not invested in RED 5 because we love management, but because we believe in RED as company. But at the end of the day, we should really be taking our hats off to management from taking this company to where it stands today. They have truly exceeded themselves in the development of Siana, from explorer to producer status, and will possibly re-use their skills again in transforming Mapawa from a drill site to a possible gold mine, (But with a potentially HUGE copper, gold porphyry deposit). Everyone on the board of directors are doing a specific job, and in my view are doing it well. I'm sure none of us could sit in there seat and do the same. (Maybe Beadle and AB), lol, but certainly not MONKEYS !!! I admit they can be a bit lax in there announcements, but lets not forget that what they are doing, may be a first for some of them and are extremely busy and probably working around the clock to meet the expected deadlines to achieve there milestones...

JeffTH, you are certainly correct in what you say about the WAFFLE on HC. I think its rubbish and in my view and if they want to continue to rubbish RED as a company and its management, then why invest in it. If they cant appreciate the work that is being done then i think they should just move on...

Beatle i would love nothing more than to take the flight to the Phils, for the opening of Siana. I'm just not sure what my goings on will be at that stage. But will certainly keep it in the back of my mind. What is volut? Google had nothing, well not that i could find anyway.

Its great to see we are ALL jumping on board with the vote of YES to resolution 10 and as Beatle said and in my biased view i think it will most definitely only push the share price in one direction once the AGM is finalized and thats UP. That re-rating could be closer than we think.


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## anderbond (11 November 2010)

Hi Moit,

Moit, As you will see from my post yesterday, I fully endorse everything you have said.
Now, I am sure Beatle meant Balut, not Volut. Balut is a duck egg that has an embryo inside, and is boiled then served. You crack open the egg shell, drink the juice surround the egg white(tastes a bit like thin meat soup) then eat the egg with the embryo. If you like you can break open the egg white to see the embryo which will be a little formed bird complete with beak, eyes etc. It is considered a delicacy, and when I was visiting Siana and staying at Surigao, I had dinner with GE and about 20 others including GE's offsider, some senior site staff, the restaurant band etc. A big dish with about two dozen Balut came to the table as part of the feast for the evening. A memorable evening, except I was suffering from dirty water poisoning, and ended up with a real bad bug in my intestines. So, the message is enjoy the food, don't drink the water or allow ice in your drinks, as you never know!
By the way, Moit and Beatle, if I can manage it I intend to try to get to Siana for the first gold pour. Cheers. AB


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## hugh_jarzz (11 November 2010)

Sorry. I stand by my view that I most certainly will vote NO....the dilution is not only totally unnecessary, it also removes the "marginal" buyer from the equation...ie those instos that may buy into a compelling investment, on market, rather than just accept a lay down misere offer at an over-generous discount to the current share price. From my recollection, RED went into a trading halt at 22c....a 10% discount is the norm in a new raising such as this, implying a price of say 19-20c. But no, our esteemed board chuck out shares like cheap confetti to the lucky offshore investors and make it sound as though we are lucky to have these guys on our register!!!!
I don't care what anyone says, a further possible 30% dilution is unacceptable to me, following the hefty dilution foisted on us at the same time last year. 
For management to suggest, apparently, that a "yes" vote is necessary to enable Sprott's free kick to get off the ground further raises my hackles. Do management really believe shareholders will swallow that one?
By the way Beatle, read your private messages.


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## andrewk65 (11 November 2010)

Hi all
Haven't looked in for a while but find it interesting that the concensus here appears to Be for the issue. I was all for it originally as I thought I am investing in the company and should have faith in the directors. I thought the extra cash was required because sone big discovery was imminent. After a while I figured if they needed the extra cash they would have asked for it when they announced the raising. They asked fir enough to get us into production I believe. It seems that as a result of offering the cr at such a discount has attracted more support than expected, and I can't help but feel they just think the money is there why not take it. I really think that if there ibms anything at mapawa it won't go anywhere until we drill it, and if we had to earn the money to drill we might be more thorough and careful how we go about it. My concerns increase hearing people on hc referring to companies that have moved 19-20% on good announcements. While I know there is a lot of rubbish on hc and I'm probably contributing the one thing I noted with many companies mentioned was that a lit had 300-600mill shares on issue at the moment. It seems were issuing as many shares duscounted as some of these companies have in total. Surely unless an absolute monster is dug up at mapawa it is going to be hard for a significant rise to take place. Even if you believe thus to be the case, why not make an announcement, watch the rise because if lower share base, then raise capital. Even better we all seem happy that we are still in schedule to produce early next year and surely 20,000 oz gives us 20mill dollars if cost is 400 per oz. This seems to be the site for the sensible investors so I am curious what you guys think of my logic. I just feel like I'm missing something here, the money wasn't needed previously and is only being taken because it was offered. Who wouldn't offer 17c for a share that seems to be happy at 20c, and surely there can't be a great downside going into production?.


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## beatle (12 November 2010)

In reply Andrew I have decided to list what I see as the main points for and against the Resolution:
Vote FOR Resolution 10:
Positives
1.Removes uncertainty of cash liquidity crisis for RED;
2.Removes the uncertainty of development of Siana and drilling of Mapawa;
3.Brings onto the register major N American insto’s;
4.Enables the ongoing commercial arrangements between RED and other parties to carry on and to continue positive relationships between those parties.
Negative
1.Issue of 18% additional RED shares which will have a dilutionary effect, as an example it reduces Siana valuation for RED to decrease from about 38 cps down to around 33 cps (depending upon gold price used).
2.Potentially provides a short term trading opportunity for already on the register instos’s that only want to retain their current holding by selling down shares for a small profit (around 3 cents per share). (I have been assured by RED that this has not happened to their knowledge)
Vote AGAINST Resolution 10:
Positives
1.Removes the extra share dilution;
2.Removes the possibility of a short term overhang in shares being sold by existing RED insto’s (likely to disappear after the AGM).
Negatives
1.Adds risk of cash crisis for RED – without ratification of Resolution 10 RED cannot raise any additional funds without another General Meeting being called;
2.Adds doubt on the development schedule for Siana and drilling of Mapawa, possibly of many months. A delay on gold production could result in RED missing this current uptrend in gold;
3.Any faltering with delays in Siana development could unnerve some shareholders/investors and have a medium term negative impact on share price;
4.The commercial relationships already entered into between RED and insto’s will be disrupted, and the relationship could be affected going forward.

You may be able to argue other points for or against, I’m happy for you to raise those other points if you consider them to be relevant or even more important to those that I list above.

On balance I believe that the negatives of voting against Resolution 10 are far too risky, therefore I have decided to vote FOR the Resolution.
This does not consider what should have been done by RED, it simply states what the outcome could be if the vote is FOR or AGAINST.


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## beatle (12 November 2010)

Anderbond, most appreciative of your explaining of balut, and thanks for correcting my spelling of it - to be honest its something I don't really want to experience again, thus my reason for warning those going to the opening! haha! (You sure you had a problem with the water and not the balut itself?). Your description was far above what I would have said, and to be honest I didn't taste anything but feathers! But having everyone watching me I knew I just had to gulp it down!!! (A bit like what happens in some of the Amazing Race episodes I guess).
I am almost 100% certain that I will attend the mine opening next year, as after all this time I want to see how things have come together, especially since I expect to be a shareholder much longer as well!
Moit, I appreciate your thought out comments, and I consider you to be a true RED club member of the highest order! Just try to swing those charts so that the technicals start looking good for a GAP UP, and I will apply for you to be put in the RED hall of fame, lol!
(Seriously though, I do believe that our fellow RED posters have been a real bonus for me in posting on ASF, and any posts, even critical but with a constructive element to the post, is surely something that we can all consider, and possibly be a great benefit to us all. I have no problems in pursuing any relevant issues raised with RED management if others don't have the time or interest to do so).


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## andrewk65 (12 November 2010)

Thanks for taking the time to make a considered reply as always Beatle. The only question I have is that the majority of your points in favor seem to be the financial security and support of the instos going forward to production. The thing that confuses me is I thought the money they originally asked for in the cr was sufficient to fully fund sienna and provide capital for mapawa. If we were remaining an explorer and continuing to burn cash would agree with these points but surely the upcoming production should provide necessary finance. I also may be very naive but dont understand why we need additional new instos on board when we will hace our own income. Im all fir matthews etc getting a oayout if they have really been in from day 1, but why the newbies? I believe you mentioned previously that sienna would be profitable at a gold price of 800-900 dollars. Do you think gold will significantly retrace from here unless something major changes in the global economy? I guess none of us can answer that these days. I simply cannot understand why we would need this additional financial security if we are still truly on schedule to pour in April- or even June- July. It's November now. Sorry to appear negative but I too am trying to figure the best vote to enhance my holding. As I'm sure your holding in red is way above mine I'm interested that you recommend the yes vote.


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## beatle (12 November 2010)

Hi Andrew, put very simply, you assume that RED has sufficient cash to complete the Siana rebuild if they don't have Resolution 10 approved. If they don't get it approved, then they may not get the US$25 million from Sprott since it fails the requirement for the loan funding conditions set out by Sprott, and thus they miss out not only on the extra placement amount, but also the loan. That could then jeopardise the final Siana construction!

I don't want to risk the uncertainty that Resolution 10 being voted against brings with it. 

So I am not saying i like it, but for our own investment security I am saying RED needs to be assured of the funds, therefore the Resolution should be approved by all shareholders. If the placement was of a lesser amount, say $10 million then it would meet the test AND reduce the dilution, but unfortunately RED has not done that, they have agreed to much more.


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## andrewk65 (12 November 2010)

Thanks beatle, that short summary certainly clarifies the concerns for me. It seems the major concern is the sprott loan facility. Can you summarize the issue with that as I thought sprott finance was also agreed in combination with the original cr amount, not as result of the additional funds offered by the oversubscription. One thing you could hopefully clarify for me, as part of the original agreed cr did we need to have the holder approval anyway, or is that purely because of the extrA shares added. Hope you don't mind me labouring the point but this company has become my main holding so I hope to see it go big someday. I see little downside but any dilution must limit upside.


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## beatle (13 November 2010)

Hi Andrew once again, and I have no problem replying to your questions, its a very important issue that certainly needs careful consideration. In reply to your question this time, and i will say that my answer is based on reading the relevant RED ASX announcements plus subsequent discussion with management, but other than that of course I am not privy to the actual documentation with Sprott nor any discussions that have occurred with Sprott in the negotiations. 
Thus, my understanding of it is that Sprott's loan has a number of conditions that need to be met before the final offer and drawdown can be made. One of those conditions is for RED to raise a minimum of US$25 million, and that was to be achieved by the aggregation of placements of that amount - the first tranche of the placement has been made and totals around A$17 million. the next tranche was to be at least another A$8 million (if we assume parity of US$ to A$), but RED was inundated with offers of placement funds by various large N American fund groups (4 times oversubscribed) plus the existing insto's (mostly Aust). Therefore RED decided, in its wisdom, to take additional funds which not only allows that minimum equity raised from the original plan of taking up $15 million (if you recall the first plan to raise US$40 million from US$25 million loan plus $15 million equity) to a significantly larger raising that now stands at $33.7 million (for the second tranche placement). 

The fact that RED has sought ratification of the first tranche funds within the same resolution also complicates their situation further, in that now no further fund raising can be achieved by RED without going to another General Meeting after the aGM, IF that Resolution 10 fails to get approved. Therefore RED is now in a precarious position IF the Resolution does fail, it probably doesn't have enough money to cover the total construction cost, certainly that is the case if there is any over-run, and RED must try to seek a change from Sprott of those conditions regarding a minimum equity raising of US$25 million for it to be able to satisfy Sprott of its cash liquidity.

I believe that RED will be in a very uncertain financial position if Resolution 10 fails to be approved! Whilst I don't like the dilution, the other outcome of a failed Resolution could potentially put at risk the final construction of Siana. Certainly to defer its construction for a number of months until shareholders approve further funding, but the damage to the RED share price could be irrepairable for the medium term. Similar to you, I also have RED as my most valuable investment, and I certainly don't want to risk that investment by voting in protest notwithstanding my disappointment with how things have turned out. That is why I consider it absolutely critical that all shareholders vote YES to approve Resolution 10.


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## Moit (13 November 2010)

Hi Beatle, AB and all other RED club members. First of all AB, I'm really glad i had eaten my lunch before i had read your very in depth description of Balut. I'm not sure id eat a whole serving, but would certainly try it, especially if everyone was looking my way, (beatle). We have eggs here as well, that are classed as a delicacy, they normally come with a rump steak, fries on the side, bit of tomato, bacon. lol... Its interesting you sat and had dinner with G.E. Was it all business, or were there some jokes to be had?? I hope the latter.
My wife and i are seriously considering heading to Siana for the grand opening. It would be nice to finally put some names to faces and shake a couple of hands.
Beatle, id just like to say a big thank you for your kind words. I feel honored to be a true RED club member,(especially coming from your fingertips), lol. I'm not sue about the hall of fame bit as i don't think my holdings would qualify. In saying that i will continue to by more. I'm actually thinking next week, before the AGM.
But on a more serious note, thanks for the pros and cons mate. Very well thought out and executed. Your last post Beatle. You are so correct in what you say. Re, If resolution 10 is voted against, the outcome could be disastrous to the development to Siana, to the company, to the shareholders and especially the share price. I believe the Sp would fall in a heap, (overtime) if it wasn't approved. And on the up-side, absolutely take off if it is. Virtually everything is FINALIZED once this is approval is in place. Siana will be a gold mine, next April. We will be rewarded !!! Thats not even taking in to account the accelerated exploration programme at Mapawa. if it wasn't approved, would we still get that? There are so many thing that come into play when making a decision like this. We just have to use our heads and put them together, as we've done and hopefully make the right choice. Then with a bit of luck, RED will prevail !!!


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## andrewk65 (14 November 2010)

Hi all.
After further reading into announcements it appears we have no choice but to vote for res 10. It seems the entire equity issue is tied into this vote, not just the additional shares that many object to. I couldn't understand why Beatle was stating a no vote wiuld endanger sienna development as the original raising notice stated the funds they asked for would be sufficient for sienna and 20million quarantined for mapawa. The facts appear to be that the extra equity was never necessary, but thidms vote has been set up in such a way that we are over a barrel. I wonder how many others who were set to vote no are awAre that they are voting against the entire equity raising,and by default the loan. From sprott also. I wonder if this was a calculated approach, rather than splitting the resolutions into acceptance of original issue and acceptance of additional issue. While I think I understand better now, I can't help but feel like I've been mugged. Maybe might post this on hc also if my understanding is correct (could you please confirm Beatle that res 10 is for aproval of entire equity issue and if voted against all finance including equity and gold pre pay is turned down) I wonder how many realize the full ramifications of this vote as I don't think I did.


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## andrewk65 (14 November 2010)

Sorry, me again. 
Just noticed on the explanatory notes for agm res 10, states that A) company has agreed to issue 102 million shares, and b) will issue a further 198 million subject to holders approval. This explanation differs from the wording of the proxy firm as that seems to state the approval is for the first tranche also. If the approval is only for the second 198 million does that still endanger the build. By my calcs we would have approx 17 mil from first tranche + 25 mil from sprott if that still went ahead.


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## beatle (14 November 2010)

Hi Moit, we are on exactly the same page with regard to the potential outcomes of Resolution 10, and hopefully all will finally see the benefits of voting YES and the possible negative implications if the vote is not approved. (And i would love to meet up with you and your wife at siana, but believe me the balut is not something to look forward to (its a bit like the first and only durian i ate in malaysia some years ago, yuk!).

Hi Andrew, with regard to your question of the placement and Resolution, how it works etc. Its been split into 2 different tranches due to the limitations of raising capital under the ASX listing rules - no company can issue shares (in fact securities, as it also includes the issuance of options in the same way as shares) beyond 15% in a 12 month period without getting shareholder approval (ie to "refresh"). 
Thus the first tranche of the shares, being 102 million, have already been issued to placees. The second tranche is for 198 million shares. In total we have 300 million shares covering both tranches.

The Resolution is unusual as it sets out jointly the company seeking shareholders both approve:

1. The ratification of 102 million shares, already issued;
2. The approval to issue 198 million shares, yet to be issued. 

in the same Resolution.

In voting YES you do both, ie ratify the first part and approve the second part. In voting NO, you don't ratify the first part but they have been issued under the 15% rule, thus there is no refresh if it got voted down, but you also don't approve the second part which were not issued. ie RED gets only $17million over the first part of the placement, and not the last part of $33 million. Thus they fail to meet the test of the Condition Precedent to Sprotts loan agreement, thus they miss out on the loan as well as the second tranche UNLESS RED can renegotiate that subsequent to failure of the Resolution being approved. That is a HUGE RISK in my view.

RED has combined the ratification of tranche 1 and approval of tranche 2 in the same resolution which is commonly put as separate resolutions - that clearly has been done purposely to force it through, but in that process runs a significant risk of it failing as a result, if too many shareholders revolt and put in a protest vote over the total issue. I personally believe you can't afford to risk putting in a protest vote over this issue notwithstanding it not being ideal.

I hope that explains it and puts it in the right perspective for you.


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## beatle (15 November 2010)

I have scanned a few posts on HC, by posters who have made certain points re the Resolution 10, and in their "expert opinion" why RED can remain issuing more shares and stick within the 15% rule to raise sufficient funds to comply with Sprotts conditions: They forget that the 15% rule must include the equity used to acquire Merrills equity in Siana which occurred earlier this year, ie they maxed out with that first tranche of the placement, thus the need to seek shareholder approval for the second tranche.

The posts that suggest shareholders should vote no and make RED go back to the market, possibly for a shareholder issue or even another placement fails to understand the dynamics of equity raisings, the risks of such, and the timing of such. 
Firstly, RED would have to arrange another shareholder meeting to seek approval for any additional equity raising for placement etc. If they did that, who knows who would be prepared to agree to meet that, what pricing etc, what the timing etc. It would put the existing schedule for Siana development behind as contracts would need to be pulled and future contracts withdrawn from tender, and in fact potentially put the entire development build process in doubt!
Furthermore, any shareholder issue, such as a rights issue or SPP would have other serious repercussions - as well as add questions of timing, pricing (which in itself puts a cap to the existing share price), then likely for shareholders not wanting to add to exposure who dump existing shares to the value of their entitlement under the proposed issue. Its not a smart strategy.
Anyone who is serious about their investment in RED must realise there is now no turning back with the development, that regardless of whether this deal is a good one or bad one, its the ONLY one available that allows Siana to be developed on time, or even at all. Its the ONLY one that provides the certainty that we should all be seeking.
Anyone who has no shares, or minimal shares that says we should vote no is only trying to create a smokescreen and in fact has no interest in the welfare of shareholders of RED. I include posters such as Smity who have no shares and have no genuine interest in RED's share price going up, clearly they should not be someone you consider as providing balanced opinion, they in fact provide reckless negative advice for their own self-interest, not the interest of RED shareholders.

I am most concerned as a genuine RED shareholder. I state once again, that whilst I don't believe that the RED deal already arranged is ideal for us shareholders, in order to maintain our optimum value in our investment, we MUST support the deal, and approve of the Resolution, ie vote YES to Resolution 10!
If you don't vote YES then I believe you may have put the nail in RED's coffin, of your own doing. Its up to you RED shareholders to make the right decision, for your OWN benefit.


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## mardo (15 November 2010)

HI Beatle,
Very measured post this morning and its good to see that a lot of support is now for approving Res 10 . I hope your detailed explaination of the delay to getting final finance and the possible delay to the project will resonate with  RED shareholders.AS you are aware there are many hudles still to come for Red management in the execution  of the contracts until Sciana is finally built.
I will also be supporting  proposal at the AGM.


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## beatle (15 November 2010)

Thanks Mardo, good to know you are prepared to consider a logical argument of why voting YES to Resolution 10 is a far safer option for any current RED shareholder, and should be carefully considered and accepted ahead of any emotional protest vote.

On another very important point with regard to RED, or any other gold stock, and the fairly hefty fall in the US$ gold price on Friday US time, it should be noted that for RED, being an ASX listed company although with an overseas project, its main benefit is derived from gold in the A$ equivalent. That is how the valuation will always be established for RED. Let it be understood therefore, that the A$ currency has to a large extent continued to keep pace with its US currency, thus with a sympathetic relationship to the $US dollar gold price in recent times, ie, the A$ gold price remains fairly well within a range despite the drop in US$ gold price overnight. 

To see how the aussie gold price has traded over the past 12 months I provide you with the 1 year chart for Aussie gold:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=1y

Therefore, any over-reaction and a head for the exit on RED or any other aussie gold stock due to Friday's drop in US$ gold price is misguided (although the market doesn't seem to recognise that in the short term, it tends to react to the US$ gold price, even for aussie miners in Australian gold mines!).


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## anderbond (15 November 2010)

Hi Beatle, I thank you for the really valuable work and commentary you have been providing for all interested RED clubhouse members on Res 10 and other matters.. However, I have to admit to being more than a little worried about your sleeping habits as you seem to post at all times of the day and night (dependent which hemisphere one is in).What does poor Mrs. Beatle make of all of this? AB


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## andrewk65 (15 November 2010)

Hi Beatle
Seems your point regarding the previous issue of 40 mill shares to merril is quite an important issue also. Some have stated red can get the 25 mil equity raised just by issuing 15%, but as you state part of that 15% has already been issued previously this year so this first tranche can only raise 17 mil on it's own. I'm certainly learning a bit here re cr rules etc. Thanks for keeping the facts coming. I appreciate the fact that you refer to figures that can be referenced in published reports, at least allowing me to confirm your comments, unlike some.


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## beatle (16 November 2010)

Hi Anderbond, if you were able to solve my insomnia I would be eternally grateful, but in fact I think that RED getting up in the 30 cents range would solve part of the problem! My wife just sleeps through it all, she's used to it now, so when I roll around in bed awake in the middle of the night i just get up and check either the dow or gold price or what someone has posted! It allows the time to pass by, although it doesn't do my health any good I am sure! 

Andrew, many of the posts on HC are made based on personal opinion, and that is also important as it gives us all an idea of what people are thinking about. What needs to be carefully considered though are some of the apparently authoritive statements that are convincing but sometimes ill-informed. Its just as well you have posed some of the questions here on ASF which have provided a chance to clear up the confusion.


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## ParleVouFrancois (16 November 2010)

Hi Bealte, strange to think that I have insomnia also, and that it seems to be a common illness among the share-crazies like us, hopefully your RED holding isn't contributing to it? 

Although I no longer hold, I'd like to see the reso 10 passed, yes the shares are being sold cheap, but 20% (random % figure taken, but talking about a MINE at Siana being built!) of something is better than 100% of nothing (No Siana, what's the value of RED then :/?). If Mapawa is anywhere near some of the estimates given, noone will care about the "cheap" to be issued, their only problem would be what type of wine they use to celebrate with (RED wine, naturally). Anyway good luck with the reso 10 Beatle & Co, hopefully the voices of reason (you guys) manage to pass the reso, I've read quite a few dissenting opinions on the HC, hopefully they control as many shares as their quality of post suggests about their intelligence .


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## beatle (16 November 2010)

Hi ParleVousFrancais,
Good to read your post and know that you continue to follow RED although not ready to take the plunge yet. I suggest that until the outcome of the AGM you will probably have much of the same in terms of share activity and price range. Its been fairly capably range bound, not sure if that's by design or chance.
I agree that for RED shareholders sakes I hope that Resolution 10 is approved. I really don't like the thought of Siana development being put on hold or even held up for a few months whilst arranging a new financing arrangement.
In the case of HC posters, I firmly believe that what we read there is not necessarily the protests of a few dissenchanted shareholders or past shareholders. There is possibly some other relationship history between the posters and RED management that is causing some to try to stir the real shareholders. I would be interested to find out when Smity ever held shares in RED (if ever!), and if he ever worked for the company or had some similar working arrangement (say as a contractor) with them! Mind you, I'm not sure he would ever be prepared to answer any of those sorts of delving questions, as it might then open his true motives and involvement with RED! Its strange that he has not ever posted about RED on ASF! 
As for insomnia in my case I believe its all about following the markets far too closely, and its not a healthy way to live! When I worked in fulltime work many years ago I found the work pressures would build up but it didn't seem to have the same impact as I find with following the markets night and day that I do now. For you in particular its not a good thing as you are much younger and presumably require much more sleep. Lets hope that the markets remain reasonably buoyant so that we all benefit for the efforts we put in!


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## Buckfont (16 November 2010)

Good evening Beatle and all other high profile Red club members.

Unusually, I just received a phone call from a young lady from Red asking whether I had made my mind up on voting on the 10 resolutions, what I had decided upon and whether I had sent it off. Also asked whether I wanted to add anything further, only saying that the level of being kept up to speed with anns. etc is a little on the thin side. Must think I`m a little forgetful. Very pleasant phone manner, yet it left me with a lingering feeling urgency on their part.

Curious as to who else has been approached in this way and what their response is. Do hold obviously and fall in the group of owning over the 100,001 mark. Have never had this before. Cheers everyone


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## andrewk65 (16 November 2010)

Hi all
Following the various facts clarified i have gone from a yes vote- to a no vote- and now back to a yes vote. Seems like teaching them a lesson by voting no is not going to help my cause any. Re smity, i wonder if he has any relationship with red, he just seems to like stirring the pot. I notice he gets pinged for flaming etc every couple of weeks for almost every stock he posts on. One of those kids sitting on his own you avoid in the playground. Anyway thanks for taking the time to clarify the many and varied issues at stake here and good luck to all. Lets hope someone rams a drill right into the head of a mega nugget at Mapawa. Regarding drill samples, is 1g/t I assume 1 gramme gold per tonne material processed, and is that a normal economic level for mining gold, or is that purely an indication that there may be better levels around. What sort of level would be the trigger point for getting excited. Obviously it also depends on the amount of resource, but when i notice some of Doray's results comming back 26g/t and visible gold im just curious what is considered economic for processing or building a new mine.


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## mardo (16 November 2010)

Hi Buckfont,
I got a similar phone call the other day and it also was a bit strange to me.
They must be a consious of some of the negative posts arround the traps.
I also hold a large no of shares & just said I would see them at AGM,Regards


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## Moit (16 November 2010)

Hi all true RED club members. First of all, Buckfont, mate i got exactly the same thing today. From a lovely young lady. The only thing is she wouldnt talk to me. She wanted the owner of the securities. I said you can talk to me and is it to do with the proxy form. She ummed and arred. I replied with, just vote for RES 10 and ill be happy... So when can i talk to this other person, can i leave you my number. Thanks for letting me know what she was going to say...

 Beatle i think Smity maybe a disgrunteled ex employee, or someone that has lost out. Maybe buying in the highs and selling them at a lost in the lows. Completely losing out. Maybe someone should do some research before investing in it, or working for them. Who knows, but i think he should MOVE ON and BUILD A BRIDGE, GET OVER IT !!!


Last of all i got finally today what everyone has been talking about. Thats the letter from a certain somebody by the name of Bill Pike. I appreciate the fact the he wants to vote against Resolution 10 and he makes some interesting points. What i dont appreciate is the fact that he knows OUR ADDRESSES and where i live. How would he have any clue as to where i live if he wasnt higher up in the food chain, or some high up broker. But i intend to track him down. I got into this game a fair while ago now, thinking things where highly confidential.

SOMEONE TALK TO ME!!!


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## beatle (17 November 2010)

Hi All RED members, great to see a post from Buckfont - i feel left out, no young girl has called me!!! (just as well, my Mrs would be on my back - just imagine when I go to the mine opening next year, lol!). I have got a letter, a few of them actually from Bill Pike.

With regard to your question about the grade Andrew, actually its all dependent upon the tonnage and grade, and other various aspects such as gold recovery, waste to ore ratio, etc that determines the economic grade cutoff, but for the type of deposit that RED is seeking, and assuming the tonnage is in excess of 50 - 100 million tonnes, then a grade of 0.8 - 1.0 g/t (yes grams per tonne) would most likely provide very attractive economics. As the tonnage of the deposit increases, then the treatment plant will increase in size (ie higher capital cost but reduced operating costs) to achieve economies of scale. That will also be benefitted by low waste to ore ratios - Mapawa drilling so far has confirmed acceptable grades in the top overlying layers, which usually means there are low waste to ore ratios, subject to the depth of mineralisation and the angle of pitwall stability. Everything that has been reported to date has given Mapawa positive vibes in terms of potential economics, although its still early days and much more information is necessary to determine whether it will be a standalone operation or a source of supplemental feed to Siana.

Moit, Bill Pike or anyone else for that matter is entitled to get a copy of the latest shareholders in RED 5, at a cost which depends on the number of shareholders. He would have to pay around $400 for RED's register of shareholders I would imagine. I understand he was also quite agitated last year with the earlier placement that brought all the insto's on board through Petra Securities. I'm glad he didn't try this stunt on RED at that time, we certainly wouldn't be in the comfortable position now if it wasn't for last years placement! I don't believe he is anything different to some other shareholders in RED that also are not linked into the current placements, he has indicated he would be granted Sophisicated Shareholder status (which either confirms he is on an annual salary of >$250k pa or has net assets of $2 million (or is it $2.5 million), and his shareholding in RED is 3 million shares, a tidy number but in the scheme of things nothing special (even yours truly has more than that, but also a little fish).

With the gold price falling tonight it seems all gold stocks may come under some pressure price-wise, and if RED also is under a bit of pressure I wonder how that might affect the voting on Resolution 10, and how the placees might now think of getting the shares at 17 cents - some interesting times still to be played out!


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## Moit (17 November 2010)

Hi all, Hi Beatle. Thanks for your insight into Bill Pike. I wasn't aware that anyone could get a copy of the latest list of shareholders. I was a little annoyed at the fact that he knew my address. It sounds like he has a habit of doing such things. But anyhow, i know now.

Beatle i think you have too many shares...(and you continue to buy more). The least you could do is save some for others, lol. I forgot to mention to you yesterday, you are not the only one that gets up in the middle of the night and looks at the gold price and the Dow. I do that as well. But also the FTSE, the Dow futures, the Aussie dollar and the gold price before i go to bed. Its normally the first thing i do when i wake as well other than greeting my family with my presence. Its a vicious cycle, lol. You never know, you could get that call today from that lovely young lady. There are certainly people out there that will be voting against RES 10. Feelings are definitely mixed. I think it could go either way.

As for the drop in gold price and market sediments, it is looking rather ugly at the moment. I'm still not sure if it will affect RED in general, but REDS market depth isn't really painting a rosy picture at the moment. Cheers all.


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## beatle (17 November 2010)

Hi Moit, thanks for your comments once again. I agree that the general market plus the resources sector is likely to come under pressure today, the combination of Dow plus drop in commodities overnight have both impacted to produce a perfect storm for us today.
But if it were analysed more carefully then the drop in gold price overnight would not be considered as badly if it was realised that the aussie dollar is also coming off at a considerable rate, and just to put the current A$ gold price in perspective, take a look at this 12 month chart of price:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=1D

I realise however that logic doesn't work on a day when some people will just want to get out in many stocks. Having gone through the worst day of 1 day trading in history as a mining analyst with a stockbroker on Oct 20, 1987, I realise you can't do more than just sit and watch it play out if you are confident the wave will pass over you (having felt like I was on the Titanic on that day!). Today fortunately is not that day by a long shot!

RED is still a cheap stock at this price, even on this day, based on fundamental value, that's what keeps me strong, knowing that gold production is around the corner, and its not just a speccy explorer with nothing ahead of it, its in a unique position, and if this Resolution gets through has ample funds on hand to cope with any short term blip caused by the general market!


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## beatle (17 November 2010)

Whoops so sorry, I realised that I copied the link to the aussie dollar equivalent gold price for 1 day, not the year - if you didn't realise that and therefore never pressed the Y button option, then you can see it here:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=1y

It gives you a good idea of how the gold price remains in a solid position - recall that RED's feasibility study was at US$800/oz, and at the current gold price/exchange rate remains at around 33 cents per share, fully diluted for the possibility of new equity late next week.

Although RED has not been spared from the sell off on most equities today, its been quite resilient! Once the markets settle down hopefully by end of next week, we will have clarity on Resolution 10, and then a rush to the finish of Siana development line...


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## fwpike (19 November 2010)

Hi There Moit, 
The Registar of Shareholders cost $482 from memory and the mail out at least say another $500 odd. And no I don't "have a record of doing these things" but so what if I had?  There should have been a Shareholder Placement on previous occasions in my opinion as there will be hopefully this time. All of those who voted "yes" to Resolution 10 will of course not take up their shares at 17c that my efforts will have achieved for them? 
I am not sure if some of these posts are company plants or if Australians have really become timid.  As part of Resolution 10 the Company are asking us to "ratify" the placement already bedded down. The only reason for that would be to sell us out all over again. 
Not this little black duck.
Cheers
FW Pike


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## beatle (19 November 2010)

Hi FWPike,
Interesting to read your post. Before I ask you some questions, I can assure you that I am NOT a company plant, I am a very concerned shareholder that is worried that risking the finance package at this stage could completely put at risk RED's development of Siana. If your holding has been 3 million shares for the past couple of years then I can confirm I have held considerably more shares in RED than you over that period, and that I have held that number  for a far longer period of time - I starting buying shares in RED (as Greenstone Resources in 1998 or it maybe 1997, don't recall exactly the first date!). Of course the number of shares doesn't mean anything, anyone has a right to their own say for the number of shares to which they own and are therefore entitled to vote over. But your suggestion that some Australians are timid, is way off the mark, I am Australian shareholder in RED, and I can be a black duck too - but I act on logic rather than emotion when it comes to an investment that has significant value and potential additional value for me!
I don't have any problem with your argument that RED should have done better with its share issues than has been presented to us, both in minimising the share issues and possibly the price, but I do have considerable concerns when presented with the facts that have now been released to the market, of how voting of NO to Resolution 10 could put at risk the entire development program for Siana. 
I also don't agree with a major shareholder share issue in the context of having it become a major part of any financing, as without that issue being underwritten then there is no certainty of anyone taking up the shares and with timing of such an issue, amongst other things.

My questions of you are:
1. Do you believe that if Resolution 10 were to fail, that it could put the entire financing and development of Siana at risk?
2. If Resolution 10 were to fail, what do you believe RED should do next in progressing the company's business?
3. Did you have a similar major concern with the initial Petra placement last year, and complained to RED management on that occasion? If so, in retrospect do you concede that the Petra placement was positive in the past 12 months, or do you still consider it should not have been done?

Having stirred the market considerably by circulating the letter to shareholders, I think we need to hear your answers to those questions, and you need to provide your view of an alternative route for RED going forward rather than provide criticism without an alternative going forward, after all I am a shareholder more concerned about the future direction of the company.


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## fwpike (19 November 2010)

Hello Beatle,

On the previous occasion that Red 5 made a placement that cold shouldered retail investors I advised the chairman that if it happened again i would oppose it. It did and I have. 
No I do not think that the sky will fall in if Resolution 10 is thrown out as hopefully it will be. The gold in the ground is not melting. This placement was four times oversubscribed as I understand it.  Many other companies include retail shareholders in their capital raisings. These guys need to learn to do likewise in my opinion. 
As you say that you have more than 3M shares, were you included pray? If not, why are you not incensed?
Cheers
Bill


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## anderbond (19 November 2010)

Hi Guys, interesting discussion going on here. My view is that not only have management done a great job in getting the project to the present stage, in particular the permitting (that was in fact the only permit issued in the Phils in the 12 month period), but a further major milestone has been to get such strong institutional interest and on board. While this has not translated into a booming SP in the short term, surely the strong interest and money shown should mean that as smaller shareholders, we are now in very good company.
Bill, I sense that you are trying to somehow prove a point with your activity, but do not actually understand what your point is. If the SP weakens back to 17 cents, does that solve your issue? Then you can simply buy in further without all this additional expenditure, ie postage etc. Or are you simply being antagonistic for the sake of it? If you have another agenda, then please declare it.AB


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## beatle (19 November 2010)

I appreciate your preparedness to answer part of my questions. I can confirm that I am not party to any of these placements, neither the Petra one last year, nor either of the current placements. 

I was not happy with the arrangements for the share placements as I believed the quantum was excessive, but accept the pricing, and I have made those points a number of times in various posts. But at the same time in RED having made its call, and considering all the issues that relate to it (and I have outlined many of those points in previous ASF posts over the past weeks since the financing arrangements were made public) I believe that it is in my best interests as a shareholder to vote YES for Resolution 10. And to be honest unless you have a different agenda (as alluded to by Anderbond), then I can't see how you will be better off with your investment in RED if Resolution 10 was to fail!

I agree with Anderbond that there have been many successes with RED management at Siana in the past couple of years, and for that I remain confident that they can continue to add value through their various efforts going forward. And if Mapawa adds to that value then we will be even better off, but I believe its better to get the gold out of the ground for our value to go up, not leave it in the ground to talk about!

Now its within the 48 hours of the AGM so no more proxies can be accepted, so if anyone were to change their minds on the voting, then you must vote in person at the AGM after calling a poll.


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## Big John (19 November 2010)

Hi Guys,
This is my first post so I hope this information is relevant. Have been investing in shares for a few years now and still consider myself a novice. Have held some RED shares for about 6 months now. On Tuesday night while having dinner I got a phone call from what sounded like a telemarketing company who said they were representing RED 5. They wanted to know if I had received tha AGM documentation. Once I confirmed this they wanted an indication as to which way I would be voting for resolution 10 in particular. Told them I hadn't decided yet and wouldn't be at the meeting. Then they strongly suggested I fill out a proxy form and make sure it is returned by the 21st. This is the first time I have had any calls in relation to my shareholdings so makes me think management may be a bit nervous about the outcome.


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## fwpike (19 November 2010)

It is my opinion that money spent on telemarketing companies to determine voting trends is misspent shareholders funds. Better spent digging and selling gold. 
There might well be some placid shareholders as seen here but I can tell you from my feedback that there are some very angry ones as well.
To respond further to our questions Beatle, firstly shareholders have the right to reject dilution of their holdings and that right does not require that they be capable of running the company. Having said that, I would approach all shareholders with the offer of a share placement before selling discounted shares to institutions and some "selected" shareholders.  I will take 2,000,000 at 17c so they are 1% of the way there.


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## beatle (19 November 2010)

Hi John, good to get your post. 

There was a considerable dump towards the end of trading (I could almost see Bill's shares flowing lol!) - If that was the case, then thanks for that Bill, I have picked up some more today! Better get that RED flowing Anderbond, its about that time of day!

Each to their own, cheers, and now RED its time for you to start performing!


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## anderbond (19 November 2010)

Hi Beatle and others, yes it is that time of the day/week when it is time to look deep into the glass of RED and think about the past week, but more particularly about the future. The sediment may well portent the future lol!
I have another example of a CR that can cause anguish. WPG went into trading halt yesterday on a close of 94c the day before. The CR is at 68c, a whopping discount! Sigh....such is the life of the small shareholder...BUT WITHOUT INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT not much will actually happen despite the best laid plans as smaller shareholders simply do not have the horsepower!
Same with RED I think. So while it is always contentious with small shareholders to raise funds from institutions and sophisticated shareholders only(usually at a discount to recent SP), this is the way things work! As a small shareholder, if you don't like it, or dislike the approach taken by management, then the answer is obvious. One more point....there was much negative discussion about the earlier finance offer from DB. Nobody seemed to like that. But here we are with a completely different approach to finance the development of Siana plus have funds in hand to accelerate the drilling program and again there is much negative discussion. It seems that in reality the raising of an additional amount of US$25 m ( a smallish sum in the general scheme of things) has become the sticking point. While I too have some query on the way this occurred, in general I have trust in management to steer things along. Does this make me passive? I don't think so as I have in the past and will in the future visit the site to observe for myself the state of play and to also conduct ongoing discussions with both GE and CJ.
So RED fans(and others) I wish you an enjoyable weekend, and in particular Beatle some sleep. AB


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## andrewk65 (19 November 2010)

Hi all. 
I have to say that this discussion does make me worry about where things are heading in the future, after seeing what developed before and after the gfc. It seems that every decision made by shareholders is based purely on short term gain potential. While that's perfectly understandable nothing will change if no one stands up and tries. I commend mr pike for caring enough to go to the extents he has in trying to influence this vote. I have been convinced by the discussions that the yes vote was correct, but all along I felt that I had been railroaded by the company, and my decision finally was based on the short term outcome. It's interesting that many including you beatle seem to say this deal is not great for us retail holders but what can we do. Call me a doomsday pessimist but I can't help think eventually we will pay one way or another for this reckless throwing around ofshareholders money, both by red and in these discounted placements in general. Unless were lucky it seems the only people truly making a killing on the markets are the advisers and brokers who get offered these placements. The only risk seems to be ipo's where there is no previous history to refer to for the company.
Sorry to bang on but I wish I'd had the cahunas to stick with the no vote as I feel it would be the right thing to do. Anything else seems to be for personal short term gain, not for company benefit. It's sad that I'm the one worrying about company benefit, not the directors


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## beatle (19 November 2010)

Hi All, and yes Anderbond lets celebrate the weekend with a RED! (just can't get away from it!).

I agree with many of the points you raise Anderbond, many companies are trying to raise cash at the moment and have had to take big cuts in share price for those raisings to attract capital, RED is in the fortunate position to be able to seek funds from big insto's that surely will provide a solid outlook for the company, and its shareholders as Siana is developed.

Andrew, if we are fortunate to have Resolution 10 passed, my view is that the outlook will be very positive for us shareholders, RED will have certainty of funds to develop the Siana gold mine, and to carry on its exploration efforts at Mapawa, Siana and other targets about each MPSA! That exploration should result in a re-rating in RED share price as Siana will undoubtedly do in coming months (if not before!).

I wish all a great weekend, with fresh thoughts for new posts in the new week ahead, AND hopefully a positive outcome to the AGM Resolution next Tuesday! (I'm sick of discussing THAT Resolution!).


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## qldfrog (19 November 2010)

Yes Andrew,
and I vote NO because as you say, someone had to think for the company, not a quick $;
I am afraid the resolution will pass and I will probably make some $ there but it is sad for the company; is the extra money allocated to a board members special xmas gift? In any case, wait and see


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## beatle (20 November 2010)

In all this discussion about Resolution 10 we lost sight of RED's other main activity - I wonder what is happening on the Mapawa front. 

Its been a while since we got some news about latest drilling results, it seems to me that its about time all those recent holes drilled will have assays available to be announced. I wouldn't be surprised to see some information about that announced maybe as soon as, or before, the AGM - of course also assuming there is some information to be sufficiently important to be announced. 

And the interesting thing about Mapawa drilling is that its a big project with minimal impact of individual holes, the unfolding story doesn't have reliance on 1 individual drillhole, it will be a slowly evolving story, as each drillhole results either increase or decrease the potential gold inventory. Its the sort of story that should be watched fairly closely though, as after a while those individual holes may provide a good idea of how likely Mapawa will be the huge porphyry gold project that we hope for, or the fizzer that will dampen RED's next big thing!


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## andrewk65 (20 November 2010)

I would think there is no way any announcement would come out before or even soon after the agm as everyone in the company and placement will want it as close to 17c to get the resolution thro. If an announcement comes out after agm they'll still cop abuse because any subsequent rise could have improved the cr terms. After the placement i wonder who will be left to push the price up as i assume many interested instos will already be in. You mentioned a while back Beatle that you knew of at least one insto that planned to take a fairly substancial position if finance was confirmed. Is that still the case? 
Seems like rather than hoping there is something good at mapawa there had better be something good or we have been done good style. If it is a fizzer then I guess red will be just an also ran small gold producer with no big surprises left in the pipeline. Going by valuations of Beatle et al the best we can hope for is 30-40c with sienna alone.


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## mgm1a (20 November 2010)

big john i also got the call from the young lady last week - my holding is much below the heavies here! so they must be nervous as to how close it will be.

Resol 10 has moral hazard involved, carefully constructed no doubt by fine legal minds, and reason why i chose abstain. 

For all the merits of the respective point of view on Resol 10, I still believe a concerted "protest" vote to the board will be to focus shareholders NO vote on the lesser Resolution 4, as i previously suggested....this would give them a truer picture as the general dissatisfaction that is latent in many Yes votes for Resol10, e,g, yours Beatle.


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## beatle (20 November 2010)

Hi Andrew, by the sounds of your comment you may have sold your stock? (lol!). I guess with the Mapawa information you may well be correct, its only going to be 2 days next week for us to see if it does come out. At some point they do have to report on Mapawa and prior to the AGM would be a suitable time to inform all at the meeting of the latest news - its what I would be aiming to do if I had a say! (who cares what a beatle has to say about anything!).
As far as the comment about there is now no reason for parties to buy shares cos they already got them at a discount (or words to that effect), I don't agree - for a start who would buy shares, particularly instos, that require regular revaluation of their portfolios if RED is going to remain stagnant over the coming months. Clearly they bought with an intent to get appreciation in their investment! I expect a re-rating at some point before the completion of Siana development, and subject to the funding not being an issue I can see that happening over coming months if not before! I didn't buy more shares yesterday thinking it was going down, so I have put my money where my mouth is (again and again and again, lol!).

Mgm1a, your point is well made about the protest vote, and I certainly thought long and hard about your suggestion before casting my vote. I agree entirely with your comment about the fine legal minds preparing the resolution, and I believe that it should definitely have been split into 2 separate resolutions. The route they chose certainly was more risky than they should have gone IMO!


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## andrewk65 (20 November 2010)

Hi Beatle
No I haven't sold my stock, guess that's why I'm whingeing so much. If I sold out I wouldn't be posting- my name's not smity you know. I'm just a bit nervous that we might see a bit of a dump after r10 is passed, although in reality you would think there is little chance of it being below 17c by production. I just hope they're not keeping something from us cos if all is tmsrill on time and budget for first pour in April then you really have to wonder why they wanted the extra cash. As I said this is a big holding for me so hope all goes well.


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## beatle (21 November 2010)

Andrew, thanks for your clarification about your shares and concerns. Of course I also have a big holding and therefore watch it like a hawk. If I can say one thing about the board of RED, particularly the main players (eg Chairman, MD esp) each of whom I have known for a long period of time, and I have had personal dealings with the MD on a number of different fronts, they have both got very conservative views, and are very conscious of their responsibilities to inform the market as issues become more relevant. In fact, it is my view that their conservative outlook has been the very reason for them seeking such a large amount of extra cash. I agree with you that with the expectation of the first gold pour in April (or even May suits me fine!) that you would expect cash flow to become positive fairly quickly soon thereafter, but the future developments for RED might become accelerated due to the high cash holding. I don't believe the high cash holding is due to an expectation of a negative (or currently concealed negative!) outlook, but rather one covering all bases, and possibly with a view to a more positive outlook (possibly involving Mapawa, but also possibly covering some corporate activity in the general area!).

As a side note, in terms of the development of Siana, the metallurgical route established is very conventional, presenting no major likely risk to its development. With the pit at Siana, probably the only slightly different issues in the first year are the dewatering of a large amount of water, but that has been done a number of times in other projects, and with the water of high quality it is not the usual issue that other projects may have had to deal with. The pit design conforms to the usual requirements of batter slope angles based on geotechnical information, and perhaps the only slightly different aspect to the mining is the decision to use roadheaders in the underground based on the cuttability of ore characteristics, which will not be an issue for testing within the first few years of Siana development. If it becomes an issue then there are alternative means to mine the underground ore by more conventional mining methods for metalliferous mines.


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## fastbuck1 (21 November 2010)

the question that needs to be asked if red only managed to raise the amount of funds they originally sought after would this have seen us to gold poor, if yes then any further funds sought could have been raised at a much higher price and hence less dilution, not to mention that red will be in some good money once production ,  drilling mapawa could have been funded from some of the profits......i hope red dos'nt end up like another arx and gets so close to becoming a miner then stuffs it all up at the very end........the vote will be a dammed if you do and dammed if you don't.......my gut feeling is a yes vote the sp  will slump and a no vote sp will still slump....


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## andrewk65 (22 November 2010)

Hi Beatle 
I appreciate your comments. I was just curious when you say the directors conservative nature is why they sought the extra funds. I got the impression that they never sought the extra funds, they just decided to take them because they were on the table when the offer was oversubscribed. They actually " sought" the original amount that was enough to complete sienna and    Allow the quarantine of 20 million for accelerated development of mapawa. It sounded to me at that point that they had all bases covered. It seems like someone who was offered a credit limit raise on their card, and took it even though they don't apparently need it. Doesn't seem all that conservative. Conservative approach would be go with original proposal that appeared acceptable to shareholders and the market, and if we are truly about to produce then wait for the income. What is your estimate of the expected production in oz fitmr the first year, and assuming gold holds above $1300 per oz, what sort of income "should" we be seeing? Hope you don't mind the questions.


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## beatle (22 November 2010)

Fastbuck, its a fairly negative outlook you have got - I don't disagree with your point about the dilution, and I think most of us have got similar views on that but as you say damned if you do and damned if you don't. 

But in regards to where RED is headed price wise, regardless of the vote, I disagree with your conclusion entirely, for the simple reason that the Siana valuation, whether we have got all the shares issued under the Resolution being approved or not, will still give a price around 38 cents (no dilution) and 33 cents (fully diluted), without any consideration of additional cash on hand and mapawa value (ie both valued at zero dollars). 

Now, immediately after the AGM the price is unlikely to increase according to those valuations, but over the  course of the coming months, as we get closer to the commissioning of Siana then it will likely move towards that valuation, of course based upon the gold price at that time. If commissioning comes on line anywhere near its forecast, in terms of time and spend, and in line with production forecasts, then RED should gradually move towards a premium above that underlying valuation. IF Mapawa results remain positive, and there is nothing at the moment not to expect that within a 6 month timeframe,  that premium in the RED share price could become quite considerable, and hopefully moving towards MML's premium, but of course that also depends upon how RED begins to shape up with its future marketing.


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## jancha (22 November 2010)

fastbuck1 said:


> the question that needs to be asked if red only managed to raise the amount of funds they originally sought after would this have seen us to gold poor, if yes then any further funds sought could have been raised at a much higher price and hence less dilution, not to mention that red will be in some good money once production ,  drilling mapawa could have been funded from some of the profits......i hope red dos'nt end up like another arx and gets so close to becoming a miner then stuffs it all up at the very end........the vote will be a dammed if you do and dammed if you don't.......my gut feeling is a yes vote the sp  will slump and a no vote sp will still slump....




Beatle why is that negative?
If RED are moving along nice and confident with what they're doing there would be no reason why another CR at a higher price couldn't be achieved. 
It appears that RED management are worried they may not be able to secure another CR down the track.


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## beatle (22 November 2010)

Hi Jancha, good one, lol. I think your rhetorical question suggests that I am backing RED management on this latest CR and the Resolution - I suggest you re-read all that I have said regarding this topic which has filled up most posters on RED over the past few weeks, and of which I have been a fairly outspoken commentator of!
Notwithstanding the current share issues in train, RED share price remains likely to move higher based on the valuation of Siana alone. If you don't believe my valuation then that is up to you. I stand by my valuation!  

I agree with you that it could be implied that RED management don't believe any future CR can be achieved at a higher share price, but if Resolution 10 is approved, Siana development is assured, and anyone selling now takes a risk of losing the likelihood of a re-rating in share price in the coming months. The insto's aren't aiming to take the cheap shares issued assuming they are govt bonds with a minimal return in those coming months, they clearly are seeking and expecting a re-rating as well.

Each to their own I guess ...


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## mgm1a (23 November 2010)

Well resol 10 passed, just. You can see why they were sweating...only 11% of total current shares voted YEs to pass the Resol. most had to abstain and half of existing shares not involved.

Resol 4 had some noticeable No but look at the Noes for Resol 3 (reelect Dundo) and Resol 4 (Jackson) -wow pretty serious 190 mill and 200 mill respectively. These guys must have had some difficult conversations with some powerful existing holders - the size of these Noes point to possible future board changes. Barry Bolitho sudden departure (still a director on 29/10 in last announcement) is ominous too - i never like it when directors don't get acknowledged in the Notice (also note the Chairmens address was adsnt of comment too). I can only speculate that we may be seeing some argy-bargy at high (ownership) levels on possible ties/mergers/JV/ T/O??

Did anyone attend?

Its obvious the language and style of the Chairmans Address being somewhat frosty that things aren't all good in insto land as well! I had wondered why he didn't see more detail on the rationale of finance rasie and perhaps a dressing down of DB/Ashmore?? so thats why


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## mardo (24 November 2010)

Hi magm1a,
Typical Red AGM ,very poor attendance but resolutions  passed so Red is now a veritable cash box .You may be right about  the disquiet from some large institutions & all the new North Americans that may come on to the share register  but that will probably be good for small SH.It will be interesting to see any of the new substancial shareholdings due out with the new raisings.
Sciana is going ahead and is still on schedule for first Gold pour.
There was discussion about dilution due to new large CR but management clearlly wanted the certainty of grabbing the cash now so that completion of mine after a very long lead time.Who can blame them! (Never get between a polatition and a pile of cash also).


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## beatle (24 November 2010)

Hi Mgm1a, I rate your observations on the votes for/against the directors as being very interesting indeed, and maybe there is some fire to follow that smoke! 

I have been disappointed to hear that apparently very few people attended the AGM, and actually very surprising now that RED has got a considerable following, and Siana is getting much closer to its development.  But maybe its resulted from the fact that the shareholder based has moved, so that most following RED live elsewhere and not in Perth! I recall when it was a local Perth stock, that was only followed by spec punters related to Patersons and Montagu - oh how things have changed!

About RED's presentation and Chairmans Address released, a few things that I found noteworthy were:

1. The indicated mine life has increased from 10 years to 11 years - not sure how though as there is no new resource/reserve statement;

2. Development continues on schedule for first gold in late April or early May 2011. That is very reassuring!!! 

3. Mapawa surface sampling shows some very high grades of gold and base metals. Clearly the MPSA remains a highly prospective area, with many targets even beyond the LSY prospect! Its surprising that no new hole information were announced for Mapawa, but as stated by the Chairman that assay turnaround time has been pushed out considerably. Such is the problem when commodity prices move, everyone clogs up the assay labs with samples!

4. The statement .."The placement to institutions, included three of the world’s largest specialist resource funds, each managing in excess of US$6 billion in equities" must account for something!!!

Now its up to those insto's to support RED on-market....


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## mgm1a (24 November 2010)

beatle
answer to #1. is in first paragraph of address.."the higher spot price...opportunity to re-assess mine cut-off grade to ..increase production".


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## beatle (24 November 2010)

Yes thanks for pointing that out Mgm1a. But you would think that prior to announcing an extension to a mining schedule there would be the additional release of an updated ore reserve, so until we are advised formally we are none the wiser about the variations to the base case cash flow model - and of course in year 11 there will be almost no additional impact of cash flows on NPV due to the interest rate applied - unless there is a substantial increment to those reserves resulting in a complete variation to the process rate on all earlier years as well.

It looks like RED may have seen its low point for the time being, or have I spoken too soon. I do hope that the negativity creeping into posts on HC are not taken too seriously by investors, its a shame that a few stirrers have managed to spook the general atmosphere of investors, particularly after it has now been confirmed that RED WILL develop Siana as per schedule, and there are now more heavy insto's due to appear on the register with this second tranche of the placement.


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## beatle (26 November 2010)

RED trading on thursday was quite instructive and a possible indication of whats about to happen! Whilst some(one?) slowly dropped a couple million shares at an even 18.0 cents during the major part of the day, in the final hour or so the weight of sellers pushed the price marginally into the red at 17.5 cents. 
I could almost sense though that the mad rush out the door is now calming to a walk, and i wouldn't be surprised to see it hang around the closing price, give or take a cent for the next week before maybe the new insto's on the register might start taking up the lead for some more shares on market. 

Maybe the exact timing of any push will be initiated by the confirmation of those recent placement funds being lodged with the ASX, so wait for the REd announcement of that in coming days. If that happens we might see a push upwards finally to test some more attractive prices. Its just my feeling, nothing of course is certain, but surely for their own best interest groups such as the likes of $6 billion funds management groups must have a budget to shore up their take up of placement amounts with some on-market buying! I'm not holding my breath but will be very relieved when I finally see a reason to have these new groups on the register, starting to push their weight in buying amongst us small humble retail investors and punters!

I await the move up please guys...


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## Hurricane (26 November 2010)

"I await the move up please guys..." 
Feels like I've been saying that for a while but then you've been with these guys longer than most : )

So who are the new insto's on the register?


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## beatle (26 November 2010)

Hi Hurricane, lol. Yes patience is a virtue in the case of RED, but having been with it so long now all I can do is wait for that ultimate reward that I believe is still to be played out. 

With respect to who are those incoming insto's well I can only quote from the ASX announcements of recent times...

Chairmans Address for the just past AGM:
..."The placement to institutions, included three of the world’s largest specialist resource funds, each managing in excess of US$6 billion in equities. The ability to secure substantial funding from these funds together with existing Australian institutions and high net worth investors is a powerful combination to advance the Company into the future."

And the latest quarterly:
..."A syndicate comprising Casimir Capital (lead), Petra Capital and Southern Cross Equities, has placed 300 million shares at 17 cents per share to existing institutional shareholders and professional investors, and leading North American and United Kingdom institutions."

I can't wait to see if these new insto's want to increase their holding on market, I believe that they will not be participating just for a gradual passive investment without some market purchases as well - and I would be surprised to not see Baker Steel re-commence its previous trading which probably was stalled whilst the AGM was in the wings. 

Probably if there is some trading activity up it will be when the new shares are issued, but thats just my speculation. What I have always believed is that with the development of Siana now assured, and on a timeframe of April or thereabouts, there is relatively limited time now to be on board before the re-rating from discount to premium to the NPV for Siana. And since the gold price remains comfortably above the US$800 despite a higher aussie dollar, there is more than enough reasons to expect a move upwards closer to 40 cents (ie at a premium) in the coming months.

In the meantime Mapawa, which has no value in the eyes of the market other than confirming substantial promise with the surface sampling on trenching, and initial Suricon drilling plus the first holes to 600 metres depth, could add considerably to that base value for Siana. 

I hear the doomsayers, I read the gloomy HC posts, but anyone who either wants to knock the company with a view to buying cheaper, or has a lifelong vendetta on management means nothing  to me when I have seen this transition from explorer to producer played out many times in the past decades. The only difference now is that gold has moved up many notches from those past decades, and Aussie gold stories are relatively sparse and certainly undervalued by the market compared to their N American counterparts.

RED WILL go UP IMO, its a matter of when it goes, not if it goes! (It may even drop before it goes up, but it will make new highs unless the gold price were to re-trace right back to US$800).


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## anderbond (26 November 2010)

Hi all RED members, interesting to see the notices re institutional shareholdings start to appear. I understand the second tranche of funds will be paid today and the shares allotted on Monday. As Beatle mentions that will then enable some of the newer players to start to build on their allotments at their convenience. Also understand that even with the successful CR, that the gold loan is not yet a fully done deal as there are still conditions precedent to be met in relation to the legal side of things. So the additional CR may yet provide "comfort"  if the gold loan does not proceed in its present form. Another indication imo that we have strong yet conservative management that clearly understands how to get the project up despite the negative remarks by some posters here and on HC. The time for a glass of RED is fast approaching, in fact why not now(lol).I will be looking for signs in the sediment to tell me that there will be a new price base forming soon, maybe around 24c. AB


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## mgm1a (26 November 2010)

Anderbond - what is you take on the major negative votes by instos to resols to re-elect Dundo and Jackson?  The exit of Bolitho having been only apptd in March also seems to indicate all not well at Board/heavy hitters level?


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## fastbuck1 (26 November 2010)

anderbond said:


> Hi all RED members, interesting to see the notices re institutional shareholdings start to appear. I understand the second tranche of funds will be paid today and the shares allotted on Monday. As Beatle mentions that will then enable some of the newer players to start to build on their allotments at their convenience. Also understand that even with the successful CR, that the gold loan is not yet a fully done deal as there are still conditions precedent to be met in relation to the legal side of things. So the additional CR may yet provide "comfort"  if the gold loan does not proceed in its present form. Another indication imo that we have strong yet conservative management that clearly understands how to get the project up despite the negative remarks by some posters here and on HC. The time for a glass of RED is fast approaching, in fact why not now(lol).I will be looking for signs in the sediment to tell me that there will be a new price base forming soon, maybe around 24c. AB




with all the money red now has in the kitty why bother with the gold loan???  need some more money ????lets have another capp raising!!


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## beatle (27 November 2010)

Hi All RED posters, some interesting comments from a few different angles for us to consider:

Anderbond, your point made about the outstanding conditions precedent for the loan is very relevant, and clearly does once again demonstrate the very careful approach that the board has taken to ensuring enough cash in the bank to develop Siana. Whilst its been a hot topic with regard to the extra shares issued, us shareholders at least can be assured that whethre the loan is finalised or not, there are now no more doubts about IF the project will be developed, and also now not a doubt about WHEN the project will be completed! 
Unless there is a very significant wet season ahead, we know that Siana WILL come on line either late April or during May of 2011, at an initial monthly rate of about 6,000 ozs (ie gross revenue per month of A$8.4 million based on current aussie gold price of A$1,400/oz!), and progressively moving towards 9,000 ozs per month and beyond in year 4. With the indication of higher treatment rate and increased gold production referred in the last AGM presentation that production profile might be conservative now!

Mgm1a, I agree that there appears to be some instability going on at the insto level for some of the board members. I'm not sure how significant this is and whether it will lead to any changes at board level. If it were to occur it might not necessarily be seen as a bad thing by the market so long as the executive team are not distracted from the task at hand to bring Siana on, and I have no doubt that no insto would seek to create any chaos at this critical and exciting stage of RED's development. However, its important for all to recognise the ultimate success that the Chairman has managed to achieve in introducing insto's to RED, thus giving the company a level of credibility and market following the envy of many other resource companies on the ASX.

Fastbuck1, of course you are cynical as we are all at times, I hope its not a sign that you have sold out as we have been on this long arduous path for too long to lose a founding member of the RED posting team! (And I had hoped to meet with you and other RED members at the time of the mine opening in May or thereabouts next year!). If you have, then maybe you will realise that once this current negative sentiment creeping into RED's share price is over that RED should be a good investment in the medium term.

On a gold price front, even though in US dollars the gold price has moved south in the past weeks, please keep an eye on the following aussie dollar gold price, its now looking to move beyond the resistance level of A$1,400/oz, and trending ever so slightly towards its all time high achieved on the 8th June 2010:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=1Y


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## fastbuck1 (28 November 2010)

Hi Beatle, no hav'nt sold any red , just as frustrated as the next share holder,now the capp raising dust has settled i hope red can now start releasing some ann that can give the sp a real boost, hopefuly some good results from mapawa will be of some benifit.....


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## beatle (29 November 2010)

Agreed Fastbuck, it would be good to start getting some positive announcements out, but as you point out realistically the only news we can expect on project front is probably an update on the latest Mapawa drilling that might be restricted or delayed due to slow assay turnaround time of latest drill results. I am not sure if the latest drill holes are that deep - they might just be targeting the top couple of hundred metres so unlikely to have any whopping intersection lengths. 

I'm hoping that the insto's can prove their worth (particularly the + $6 billion group recently introduced by our management!) and once shares have been issued in this latest placement that they start demonstrating their intentions to support the price with some very hefty bidding. What we really seek is positive buying support, noting that the market price remains around 50% of Siana NPV!!! With all the cash in the bank now to support the development, plus considerable cash left over there is no reason why RED can't start re-rating - after all, its only about 5 months or so to first gold pour!!!


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## anderbond (29 November 2010)

Hi mgm1a, I think Beatle and others are on the money in that the CR has in fact caused some unhappiness with some of the insto's. I believe the biggest shareholder is ok, but two or three of those next in line have expressed themselves. The negative voting against CJ is indicative of this. I suggest CJ is well aware of things and will carry out some fence mending. I agree with Beatle that it is unlikely it will become a burden on the SP, but perhaps might mean that some insto's revise their exit price down a little. A lot really depends on the drilling with Mapawa and perhaps also some of the other areas held, as I understand there is an enormous amount of prospectivity.
I also mention that Siana might also provide some further surprises as time goes by. AB


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## mardo (29 November 2010)

Hi Anderbond
I agree with your sentaments but its not having any posative effects on the SP.Could some of the instos be sending a sharp message to CJ as he might have wrongfooted some of their future plans for Red 5.Anyone would think they are minning in (Afghanistan ) and did not have over 100 Million cash to finish a low cost mine within the next six months or so.
The Gold price is over 1400 A$ and I suppose we will all have to wait until some sanity comes back into this stock.
Keep maintaining the faith .


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## beatle (30 November 2010)

You have put an interesting light on things Mardo, even to the possibility that one or more of the instos may want to control RED's course of actions, but regardless, putting things in the right perspective, for RED's share price:
1. RED has now got the money to develop Siana;
2. Siana development remains on track for first gold production late April/early May 2011;
3. Gold production after commissioning will come online at a rate of about 6,000 ozs per month;
4. Operating costs are sub US$400/oz;
5. Operating margins per month will be huge;
6. Mapawa drilling will carry on without any hindrance due to high cash reserves!
Whether the Chairman has some baggers or not, RED is going to be a cash cow in 6 months time from cash flows! Its got a stack of cash now as well!

Is that first 1 million Bid at 17 cents today the forerunner of support from the insto's coming back online after the AGM voting has been finalised?


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## beatle (1 December 2010)

JP Morgan - Another very credible group have come onto the RED register with 73.48 million shares at 5.75% equity. Its becoming a real club for big investment houses! 

Now lets see where this takes us all - I am sure JP Morgan is not going to sit idly by with this relatively small stakeholding, particularly as it closes on the commissioning period in the coming months!


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## RADV (1 December 2010)

And in the meantime I picked up a few more at 17c  

But, no more of that - upwards from here on end RED!


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## beatle (1 December 2010)

There has been quite a bit of crossings going on in the past hour (including Bot trades), the early trading was rarely crossings - i state this only because of a question from CEB2 about the 600,000 trade, it was also a crossing - thus took precedence over the other bids in the queue. (Did you note that Moit, lol?).


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## beatle (1 December 2010)

Hi Moit, just with respect to that particular cross trade in RED. I happened to be watching the trading at the particular time that the 600,000 shares went through, but it didn't appear within the queue, and seemed to jump the queue - I think it was a pre-arranged trade between parties (maybe related or friendly insto's in same broker?), but can't be sure of course.

RED has hit 19 cents finally after a long struggle downwards, perhaps this will re-ignite the expectations of a re-rating, if that happens you won't want to be chasing the stock higher - tomorrow opening could be an exciting time IF the overseas markets are not overly depressed or gold is not down!


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## anderbond (1 December 2010)

Hi RED clubhouse members, well DB's notice has appeared. So hopefully if there are any disgruntled insto holders, they will not commence selling down but swallow their disgruntlement( is that a word lol?) and sit back and let things now move along. Beatle is quite right in his thoughts that some of the huge instos now there will not sit back with smallish stakes but will commence on market buying. If the disgruntles(??) want out then I hope the newer instos will simply take them out without too much SP disturbance. Only remaining matter seems to be the question of the gold loan and whether the conditions precedent can be fully satisfied. As I understand it, this is related to the corporate structure and the Philippines limitations on foreign ownership. This translates into the basic question of who owns the gold production? Same question apparently arose with DB but they made a commercial decision. The interesting thing is that RED/Greenstone has a similar type of corporate structure to most other foreign companies operating in the Phils. In addition, Sprott is well versed in the Phils, and was actually a holder of quite a chunk of MML earlier on. So the gold loan will probably proceed, but if not, then RED has the position covered anyway. So the scene is now pretty much set to see some real action. I am tipping 24c in next few weeks. AB


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## Moit (1 December 2010)

Hi all RED club members and apologies for being absent the last couple of weeks. 
First of all, hi Beatle, and whats with that bud. A bloke makes one mistake and is branded for life, lol. I will admit though, i couldn't take note in todays trading activity, as i have had work commitments to attend to. I agree with you, obviously todays xts were in fact planned and executed through a brokers agreement (IE the 17.7 cent for the 3.8 odd million or the 4 million at 18 cents... But what a great day. The instos and are truly working in REDS favor and are simply topping up.
Secondly we are getting some major names on the registry, JP Morgan and Chase, extremely well known and an interesting point made by Beatle (they don't like to sit there idled). Obviously they still want to buy on market and increase there current portfolio and of course profit. Currently $2 odd million profit in a couple of days. Not bad.( But keep in mind i am only speculating who the instos are. It could be Sprott or another great insto pushing that sp up, or all putting ther two bobs worth in.
Thirdly AB and Beatle, i agree whole heartedly that this is the infamous RE-RATING we have all been longing for. Everything is in place. The placement is now complete, the instos have purchased, and are now topping up. The cannon ball is loaded and is ready to fire. I'm with you AB, I believe we will see that Sp at the 24-25 cent mark before XMAS. We all know( and in past ) when RED runs it doesn't crawl, it sprints. Now pending on overseas markets and the gold price over the next couple of days, it certainly looks positive. Market futures are certainly green and the gold price just shy of 1400.00 an oz. It should make for an interesting day Beatle. Lets just hope the instos and the bot trading continues as RED is truly ready to take off... Cheers Moit


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## beatle (2 December 2010)

Hi RED members, good to see some positive volume trade this morning near its recent highs. I have confidence that if its an insto thats buying a few more, eg JP Morgan, then the trading will slowly grind away at each level before moving to higher ground - so you know the solution to that? DON'T sell!

What should be considered by RED investors is that whilst the market has not fully valued the Siana gold project based on fundamental value, RED remains attractive to larger insto's such as JP Morgan as well Baker Steel etc since it remains a possible takeover target for gold companies wanting to build gold production and gold inventories. RED only has to come online and demonstrate that it has made the move from explorer to producer to become a major RED flag for corporate acquisition. I wonder if that is the exit strategy JP Morgan will be working on in the coming months.

Anderbond, your comments about the outstanding loan due diligence is an interesting observation, and as you rightly point out, whether RED gets that loan or not is now immaterial, as on my reckoning the company will have more than enough from its recent capital raisings to both complete Siana development as well as carry on Mapawa exploration at its current rate for at least 12 months, and before the end of the year RED will be traveling on free cash flows!

As for the RED corporate structure in the Philippines, it was fortuitous that RED managed to acquire Merrills and in the process get hold direct ownership of the Siana MPSA plus the outstanding 10% that RED did not hold previously. With regard to its project though, the route that RED has taken to hold its interests via a local Philippines registered company is in fact a more acceptable basis for Philippine corporations law, and will mean that RED enjoys a 50% tax break on each project it operates, such as Siana, AND separately 50% of Mapawa in the end of it having reserves (that is almost a given now, its just a matter of where the ore goes, either to Siana mill or its own standalone mill). From what I am led to believe MML has not had the same favourable tax treatment as it has a different ownership arrangement, with transferred ownership and contract pricing between the mining section (in a separate legal entity) and the processing section (another separate legal entity). This was done to obviate the  local 60%/ foreign 40% ownership stipulation to comply with Philippines corporations law.

Moit, I'm so glad to see you posting again on ASF, and know that we are on the same team (regardless of our anonymity). Can I say that you are too kind to Smity in hoping he has some RED shares - he has actually tried to do a real disfavour to all RED shareholders that read his bitter and twisted comments in downramping RED and effectively urging them sell - I still believe that he has something other than share investment in mind with his comments  that possibly relate to a past falling out with one of the executives (and I wouldn't mind betting that his off-sider Bsredoje is somehow involved, maybe they are one and the same party!).

Back to RED - go RED go, (UP!)


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## anderbond (2 December 2010)

Thanks Beatle. I believe you are 100% correct in your comments re the favourable tax treatment retained by RED/Greenstone and also in respect of the situation with MML. My comment re Sprott's prior involvement with MML was to indicate that Sprott is experienced in Philipino corporate law and foreign ownership restrictions and that the legal side of RED should not necessarily faze them with the gold loan. Interestingly I understand it is the same legal adviser for Sprott's that advised DBA! In any case, arguably the concessional tax treatment for RED should make the coy more attractive?
I also understand that Baker Steel participated in the recent CR (as you would expect) and were perfectly happy to see the greater than expected amount raised as in their view "this further derisked the company financially".
They like the company a lot and expect a major rerating of RED by the first gold pour........don't we all lol! AB


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## mgm1a (2 December 2010)

Red 5 own 97.5% of the Siana gold mine in Northern Mindanao in Phillipines, a region with huge gold history particularly in 1950's. Near neighbour is the fabulously cash positive Medusa Mining which has a market cap.of $1.2B (b.t.w. 65c 1/12/2008 and $6.50 exactly 2 years later)

Red 5 also has a very prospective gold-copper porphyry at Mapawa, while no value has been attributed they have definite and substantial hits.

A summary of Siana from the Beatle (post 697 on ASF)
QUOTE
....putting things in the right perspective, for RED's share price:
1. RED has now got the money to develop Siana;
2. Siana development remains on track for first gold production late April/early May 2011;
3. Gold production after commissioning will come online at a rate of about 6,000 ozs per month;
4. Operating costs are sub US$400/oz;
5. Operating margins per month will be huge;
6. Mapawa drilling will carry on without any hindrance due to high cash reserves!
END QUOTE

CONSIDERATIONS:

a.) Having raised $45m Dec09 & Jan10, the company stumbled in debt financing process and had to raise a further $50m. Since then a gold prepay facility of $US25m has been agreed, additional to the $A95m capital raised.

The company now has quality holders - the Top 8 holders hold 56%.

Mathews Capital 187.7m
Merrill Lynch BoA 165.1m
Baker Steel 79.1
JPMorgan Chase 73.4
Sprott Asset Mgmt 66.2m
Deutsche Bank 59.5m
Lujeta 50.0 m
Equity Trustees 42m

Most others will not be short termers as there has been good information and discussion on HC, ASF as well as recommendation this year from Fat Prophets, notably when not de-risked.

b.) Everything in place from finance, permits, contracts, plant & equipment, power, local staffing and community amenities etc. Key contractor is major Aust. Corporation. Project Manager ex Masbate mine construction. Geology & plant is uncomplicated.

c.) Minimal hedging of 28,700oz repayable over 21 months commencing Oct.2010

So my DCF valuation using these factors:
Gold USD$1300
Silver USD$25
AUD/USD 0.96
Discount 9%
LoM 10 years
Opex; numbers per company model. $US347oz over 10 years
Capex; $US 72.539m. Replacement capex during the 10 years assumed funded by depreciation.
Assumed deprec. of 10%SL
Output; per company model of Au 848,900oz and Ag 1,442,600oz
Tax; tax free first 4 years and at 30% thereafter

Shares on issue: 1,277,288,043 today
a.) add 12,000,000 for balance from corporate restructuring which is owed to local JV partner,
b.) less 5,609,955 treasury stock relating to same (which I assume they hold and will cash at a higher 20c raising $1.12m)
c.) add Sprott structure fee 9,500,000 shares
d.) add Sprott 3 year options converting at 22.95c for $6.426m
Total diluted 1,321,178,088 before adjustment
Adjusted for the effect of additional raising the company will now ring-fence for


PROJECT-BASED NPV RESULTS

After tax NPV $A 360m.
After tax IRR 103%
Valuation per share consists of 3 components
i) Project-based NPV of 27.3c (above)
ii) added to which should be 2.0c of [pre-Capex Plan] expenditure regarding Mine Development from the balance sheet (I used $26m per Note 10 & 11),
iii) add the effect of the $US25m "extra" raised in Nov. that the company has tagged for Mapawa exploration, of 1.9c

Giving a total of 31.2c.

Current SP of 19.5c is at a 37% discount to this value. Given that production is only 6 months away I'd guess that a discount of, say, 20%-25% (23.5 to 25c) is a useful fair value short term target range.

SENSITIVITIES:

POG; Overall there is +/- 3c for every $100 change in gold, using static POG over 10 years.
I played around with some huge numbers in year 1-5 and dropped to a more historical average for remaining, the answer is fairly similar +/- 5c.

Discount rate: I have dropped from my earlier 10% rate as the project now only has a commission risk. The company used 8% in their BFS, this would add 1.5c if used

Fx: the most volatile; +/- 1.2c for every 4c change in cross rate

LoM; most recent comment from the Chairman indicates they will extend the reserves by accessing a lower cut-off to extend the mine. Mention was made of 11 years. Moving Yr 10 output to Yr 11 and copying Yr9 to Yr 10 adds only 0.5c to the project NPV.

OTHER COMMENT:

1.) The valuation does not assign any value to Mapawa, ither than the cash value of funds reserved for exploration. The Red 5 SP is now very leveraged into future Mapawa results - they have a definite strike and with a $US 25m for this there should be big rewards.

2.) There a real possibilities for T/O given the grades, reserves, Mapawa and the few and powerful hands of the top 8 holders. The recent AGM resolutions to ratify placement (i.e dilutions) meet stiff opposition to re-election for 2 directors. Insto discontent may not be constrained only to directorships and any one may seek to accelerate value creation by actively selling to mid to major goldies interested in growth by acquisition. It makes sense to do this sooner before production and / or Mapawa results are confirmed and then built into the price.

3.) My valuation has no premium - again refer to MML.AX for an idea on what this could do above valuation once gold is pouring; a p/e of 10 would take it near 40c straight away. Also think of MMLs mkt cap and compare with their June'10 net assets of $175m

4.) Fortuitously RED will be significantly have cash flow positive during first 5 years of operations with low costs because of being open cast and very favourable POG.(likely to take at least 5 years for world debt mess to sort itself)

CONCLUSION

Holders can expect solid short term gains to mid 20's now that capital raising approved and with mkt cap. exceeding $200m will have meet investment hurdle for more instos.


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## beatle (2 December 2010)

Mgm1a, I congratulate you for an absolutely first class analysis and assessment of RED and the positive outlook you conclude from that analysis. 

To be honest (and I'm sure you exactly the same as me), its been frustrating changing the model for Siana to cover the possibilities of debt plus additional equity tranches. Thus I assume this latest model of yours covers the additional likelihood of RED drawing down the debt of US$25 million - my model has not been updated the past weeks leading up to the AGM to incorporate the addition of the debt, it was modeled assuming one or the other but not both (the variation is unlikely to change the valuation cps much though).

I believe that your view that the discount rate can now be lowered below 10% (or sometimes analysts are using slightly higher than that, so I hope they are also considering reducing accordingly using your same logic) is very fair and logical. 

If I can make one other observation: With regard to your other most relevant inputs can I suggest your view remains quite conservative, considering the apparent linkage of US$ gold price and aussie dollar exchange rate as a complementary set of parameters -in your analysis you reduce the gold price from current price of around US$1,385/0z or thereabouts down to US$1,300 but do not change the aussie dollar exchange rate from its current around $0.96. This softening of the aussie dollar with assumptions that the US$ gold price will drop in following years is an important consideration that all the analysts don't seem to consider, thus putting in a relatively conservative outlook.


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## mardo (2 December 2010)

Hi Mgm1a,
Absoulte top presentation of the virtues of Red 5 at this time of their development.Its a pity management dont have a proper marketing division to help them get some type of appropriate profile.Good work.


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## mgm1a (3 December 2010)

hi beatle - yes i waited till all the cap. & debt raise was done before i had another go at this because of the time it takes.
As for key numbers..these models have a pretty long view, anything can happen within 10 years and all of the factors could be debated endlessly. 
Over the last 10 years:
PoG has risen steadily from mid 200 to a tickle under 1400
AUD/USD has spent most of recent years in .75-.95, with a plunge in 2008 to low 60.

So i ended up choosing recent values. AUD has been re-rated to close to parity and likely to be somewhere there for medium term with the US in such an economic mess, but its so big that it could turn quickly. As for PoG yes there's more definite upside so i figured i'd be conservative with that and using the floor price used in the prepay facility also on the basis that RED could grab some hedging if PoG looked like correcting long term. 

Realistically I figure also most investors are comfortable with recent values rather than forecasts too far in the future and that's how they will decide on SP. 

My focus was to see how far away the SP is from a conservative value, now that the company is very close to being a producer that is extracting gold and turning it into cash and is viewed as such with attendant premium.  

Over the last 1 wk trade range (low to high) RED has had a 27% spread, MML 11%, pretty volatile even though PoG didn't move much -  sentiment counts for a lot.


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## fastbuck1 (4 December 2010)

beatle said:


> Mgm1a, I congratulate you for an absolutely first class analysis and assessment of RED and the positive outlook you conclude from that analysis.
> 
> To be honest (and I'm sure you exactly the same as me), its been frustrating changing the model for Siana to cover the possibilities of debt plus additional equity tranches. Thus I assume this latest model of yours covers the additional likelihood of RED drawing down the debt of US$25 million - my model has not been updated the past weeks leading up to the AGM to incorporate the addition of the debt, it was modeled assuming one or the other but not both (the variation is unlikely to change the valuation cps much though).
> 
> ...




then what will the sp be if gold hits $1500 is the next six months and the way gold is going at the moment it most likely will be $1500 when red starts to pour, its all starting to get exciting ......bring on the mapawa results.......


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## Moit (5 December 2010)

Hi all RED club members. Mgmla, fantastic analysis and valuation of REDS current and future status. Some really interesting points bought forward. It was that good, ( and right on par with Beatles i believe ), that it has actually enticed a couple of true RED club members to invest even more coin into this little GOLD MINE !!!
Keep up the great work. We have a lot of really knowledgeable and intelligent people posting on this RED forum, which enables other, less fortunate people like myself to get the true and accurate information that isn't available on any given website. Thank you.
Fastbuck1, mate it is very exciting times at the moment. Please don't wish to hard for the Mapawa results. I need a week or so to pick the low. I'm guessing 18c. But well see. As the April, May quarter is fast approaching things will really start to heat up, especially if the gold price does hit $1500.00 an oz. RED will be truly cashed up and hopefully the Sp will reflect that. Go RED GO !!!


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## beatle (6 December 2010)

Hi All, and some encouraging comments from Fastbuck and Moit over the weekend, with a move in the US$ price (shame the aussie is also now strengthening to offset its rise slightly), but I agree with your sentiment.

Moit, why do you think it will drop to 18 cents, I agree it fell away on Friday, but beware that it may be a continuation of the shenanigans that has successfully suckered some retail investors into dropping stock - my view is that the insto's are not sellers at all but playing a game with us modest holders. I guess your charts tell you a different story with the momentum of share price but I can't see it continuing for too long with the time getting closer each week for first gold pour!

Mgm1a, as we all agree your analysis was spot on and actually still is conservative albeit objective. Your comment about the top 8 holders having 56% of RED stock is interesting, I wonder how many shares the insto's such as Matthews (and those not substantial holders) picked up in the recent placement, they may also have added but yet to report, as with some of the other insto's, so it could be that they hold a tad more than 56%, and combined with the other 20 odd insto's I wouldn't mind betting that the free shares being traded is much smaller than we realise (relatively speaking of course).

As Moit says, Go RED Go (UP!).


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## Moit (6 December 2010)

Hi all RED club members, hi Beatle. I honestly dont think it will get to 18 c, well not in the immediate future anyway. Im just going to monitor it over the next few days and see how things progress.  (Though i am quite willing to buy in at current price range). I think if it can break the 22.5 c mark, the skys the limit then we could see the 24 to 25c range around Xmas.  

Sorry if i offended anyone and particularly you Beatle, it was rather a negative comment compared to a usually biased ol me, lol..

cheers Moit Go RED Go !!!


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## beatle (6 December 2010)

Thanks Moit and certainly there was no offence taken by me. In fact since I have little understanding of charting I presumed your comment was more based on current trading momentum than anything else, and thus was interested to hear of your chartists interpretation (I enjoy understanding how other people with a different basis for investing/trading form their particular views).

Just on another point you made earlier, its a shame that the RED threads on HC have resorted to tit for tat argument which are related to entirely different matters than the issues surrounding RED and its move toward gold production April/May next year. ASF is a good alternative website and I agree that the posts on RED here are mostly constructive, even if not always positive for the company's share price! Keeping things objective and on topic is always a benefit for all of us true followers of RED.


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## Moit (6 December 2010)

Hi Beatle yes you are quite right, more so the trading activity, the volatility and especially the bot trading, that could possibly point toward a bit of a dip... Rather than the technical analysis of charting.

As for HC, i really cant be bothered with it, because the majority of the time they are negative or bad mouthing someone in management. I'm certainly not saying that about all the posters on Hc. Just a particular few, and the likes of a certain someone that hasnt even got RED shares, that likes to comment on RED. Geez get a hobby... The only time i do jump over, is to have a look at a comment that one of us here on ASF have heard about. 

And as for todays trading activity, it looks as though the bots are at it again, just in larger parcels. Just my thoughts, Moit.


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## beatle (7 December 2010)

Hi All, and thanks Moit. 

Moit with regard to your comments about the Bots working, to be honest yesterday trading in RED was quite confusing, I was not sure what the Bots wanted to do, it seemed they were trying very hard to keep treading water on the same spot of 20 cents! I assume it might be a tactic to keep the market steady, and to try to have any weakholder at this level drop stock.

I wonder what will happen now that gold and silver are i record territory! Esp since we have N American major financial insto's likeJP Morgan in the game. I would imagine they would have to be pretty bullish for a discounted gold developer cum producer such as RED!


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## mgm1a (7 December 2010)

RED has struggled over the the last year to hold every 0.5c tick.
the 21 only lasted an hour & half today. Nothing stopping this, assisted by PoG uplift and additionally the free float investors aren't being tempted to sell into this strength.


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## wtang89 (7 December 2010)

Good Day All,

It looks like RED is finally back around the prices before the share issuance. Like Beatle said, now that the financing is bedded down and gold prices surging before xmas, i think it looks like we will all have a merry xmas indeed ^^. Red just went through 21c ^^. Congratulations to all current holders, and Go Red Go!


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## Rick64 (7 December 2010)

Hi all Red Club members,
Great work by all of you to keep I and many others so well informed.
I am addicted to Red now and watch all posts both here and on HC several times a day.
I am slowly building my holdings as my limited income allows each week.
I am neither a chartist or a TA so all info is much appreciated.
Does anyone know why I cannot access Reds website?
Thanks all in advance


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## beatle (7 December 2010)

Hi Rick64 and Wtang89, and good to hear you are following the unfolding (neverending!) story of RED.

An interesting question you pose about the RED website, I have asked and understand that the server that RED uses is currently down, but will be up again soon. Its not related to them updating the website (unfortunately) or anything like that.

I think we are watching the gradual process of re-rating going on with probably more accumulation by instos, and its an interesting time as there is a significant wall at 22 cents to be overcome. I guess its got something to do with that being the price where many bought in when the project financing package was first announced, from which it began to fall back after Resolution 10 came to light. Thus the resistance needs to be moved before we advance to new highs (although the all-time high is around 26 cents several years ago). 

I have no doubt that we will overcome the resistance, but it would definitely be helped by an increasing gold price in coming days of course! And as Wtang89 states it could be a very merry Xmas as gold traditionally does have stronger physical demand at this time of year.


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## Rick64 (7 December 2010)

Hi Beatle thanks for that
Dont know if this is relevant to this thread or not?
Australian Mining company Red 5 Limited based in Perth and Manila is working with iprint on two exciting projects. A new corporate video which includes a fly over and also a redesigned website to update the Sianna site progress.


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## Hurricane (7 December 2010)

Good to see RED polishing its brand image. Obviously their marketing budget just received a bit of a budget increase.......


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## beatle (8 December 2010)

Agreed Hurricane, and here's hoping that RED's marketing edge will be to say they are:
In gold production (in about 6 months time) ramping up to 100,000 oz pa, with a comment of it coming in under budget and on time, as a long life, low cost producer!

The early trading in RED makes me thankful that you can't trade in fractions of a share - at least we can predict when that Bot has finished its cycle after it voraciously chomps through that last 1 share trade (Lol).


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## beatle (8 December 2010)

Hi all, I seek some assistance from anyone who maybe was looking in detail of the trading activity through the course of today, Wednesday, for RED. I noticed early on in the session there was a Bid of 3.0 million shares, and this remained intact for a great deal of the session that I was watching, and then unfortunately I had to go out and do something constructive (ooohhh), then missed a vital part of the trading including the close. When I finally got back I noticed that the 3.0 million Bid had gone, but not sure if it was completely taken out or whether it was withdrawn from the Bid side. Did anyone see what happened to it, was it taken out?

For me, that strong Bid was an exciting change to trading, as it suggests to me that someone is wanting to put a bit of pressure on the sellers, but not sure whether it might still be lurking out there for another day. I hope it still is out there of course, as it might mean that some impatient hoarder is getting impatient with the trading.


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## Buckfont (8 December 2010)

Hi there beatle, Yes that 3m change surprised me too. Had a buy of another 60k. in line thinking I was at the end of the queue. And hey presto bid went through from memory leaving 8400 to be filled. I cannot work that out.

I thank you and all the other learned people here for all your most informative posts. I has been the one of the most educating threads I have read here on ASF and I give my thanks to you all.


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## andrewk65 (8 December 2010)

Hi all
Re the mystery 3mil bid and especially the buy by buckfont going thro- I also noticed the bot trading and I believe a similar large bid has been inplace then removed from just below the offer price on the last few days. With a previous company I have placed a buy at what I thought was the back of the queue only to have it filled, and the large buy that was infrint of me still there. This looks to me like someone selling down a large parcel probably from the 17c issue. Maybe they have bot traded to themselves to push the price up to 21c on what appears to be good volume( we have no way of knowing who was buying and selling 3 million upwards over last few days?) thereby creating their own chart almost. The final straw is the trade going thro from what appeared to be the back of the queue. That and the removal of the large buys fromthe stack onthe last couple of days at 3 pm ish seems very suspicious. Is what I'm suggesting feasible as I'm still learning the tricks played by instos. Someone seems to be holding things at around 21c with large block bids and offers, churning to themselves with bots, and selling to real buyers whenever they get sucked into the back of the buy bid. Please tell me this is not possible and I'm being paranoid


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## beatle (9 December 2010)

Many thanks Buckfont and Andrewk65. 

So its hard to confirm but it appears that the 3 million Bid didn't go through as a trade despite it being close to the front of the queue.

To (half) answer your concerns, theoretically the only way someone can "jump" the queue with the trading these days if there is a cross trade where a trade occurs within the same broking house, that way it has right to trade in front of the queue, otherwise it must work its way to the front of the queue. IF the trade has moved in front of you in the queue then IT MUST be a crossing and that will be confirmed as a cross trade on the share trading history.

I have noticed that with the introduction of Bot trading and computerised trading patterns, that it seems the Bot is able to know instanteously when the market opens or closes, thus its possible to lose out if you think you can out-trade the Bot in getting a cheaper buy or a higher sell, its simply not possible to beat them at that game from what I have observed. I am wary of the Bots from a pure trading perspective, it does seem to me its not a complete level trading environment at all. But knowing that means you best not try to outsmart them!

I don't know about them putting in "dummy" bids though, which I think you are referring to Andrew - if they get hit by a genuine seller, there is no way that they can predict when a sell like that is about to hit them, thus I have no doubt that the 3 million bid was genuine, I just don't know if it was consumed today or if it was pulled prior to the end of trading. And I can confirm right at the end of the trading today, it appeared that there was going to be a big overhang of sellers at 21.0 cents on the close, with something like 800,000 offering at 21.0 cents and around 100,000 Bid at 21.0 cents but instanteously at 16.10 (or close to that) a huge bid at 800,000 odd arrived to steal the whole lot on offer at the close! Thus in my mind there is no doubt someone (insto) was a big buyer in that close, and maybe it was also a big seller (insto?) who was the seller, but it was not a crossing, it was a genuine buy and sell from one broker to another broker.


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## Moit (9 December 2010)

Hi all RED club members. Beatle i was about to put a bid in yesterday around lunch time i believe, for 21 cents. I thought ill just give it a minute and see what happens. (knowing you shouldn't really buy till the end of the day), 5 minutes later i come back and seen the 3 million. I thought bugger, cause id have to either wait a long time to buy more, or just buy at 21.5. At the same time i was also very excited. I thought this is going to hammer. There were actually at one stage 13 million to buy, against 3.9 million to sell. That only means one thing to me. So i bought at 21.5...
What i did notice that the 3 mill did not jump the queue. Toward the end of the day about 3.50 i think, the remaining 2.7 or 2.8 mill were pulled. 2 or 3 hundred had been taken out. It all boiled down to the last 2 minutes, (as it does with RED), at 4.08 pm when the 800 k to sell and the 880 k to buy appeared. If you watched it closely, there was only 5k in it from it going to 21.5 for end of day finish. If the buyer had 885 k it would have ended higher. But it just goes to show WHO is in control here, certainly not us LOL !!!
Ill be watching intently today as well if you wish for another commentary tomorrow, LOL !!!
Lets hope for a good day, despite the recent drop in gold price. Although i believe that with REDS trading activity, market sentiments have very little to do with RED at the moment. The instos are doing there thing. So Go RED Go !!!


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## beatle (9 December 2010)

Thanks Moit, a most informative post indeed - you have confirmed a couple of things of significance from my point of view:

1. The 3 million Bid must have been genuine if some of it was consumed, even a small part of it, it means they were prepared to be taken out if a BIgger player wanted out (say a smaller insto getting out which could always be the case with so many instos in the stock) - but obviously no one took much of it other than smaller traders/investors.

2. The close you were referring to, of just a small difference between the Bid and Offer at 16.10 despite it being a relatively large sale to go through always seems to favour the mischievous Bot's point of view! On other stocks you have an even chance of winning at the Open or Close, Buy or Sell, but on RED it seems you have virtually no chance! (Whatever it wants it seems to achieve, so no point trying to beat it at the Open or Close IMO).

Moit I'm sure that 21.5 cent purchase will make it into the Green in coming days if that mysterious Bidder finally relents as stock dries up (I darn hope it dries up, lol!).


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## andrewk65 (9 December 2010)

Hi again
Just curious on the mechanics of instos and bot buying selling. It appears you consider the three million bid genuine because 2-300 thou were taken out. Is it possible that an insto trying to manipulate price could put the large bid in below to give the buyers confidence, then churn or even sell to themselves on market some way so it appears trades are going through. If they sell to themselves somehow indirectly via 2 brokers or however it works their actual holding would only change when a genuine buyer or seller takes a bite. I believe that if they want the bid can be removed and replaced in an instant to allow genuine buyer/ seller to move thro queue. I have definitely seen a buy of my own get filled from the back of the bid queue while the bids that were in front still show in the stack( using comsec iress!) haven't seen this on red but I have seen it. All the talk of here we go, hold on, instos will buy up etc seems to be exactly what they are trying to create by placing the large bids. I know it sounds like a conspiracy theory but realistically do we believe the new 17c instos are all going to hold well into the 30 c area?


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## Moit (9 December 2010)

Hi Beatle and RED club members. Couple of interesting points you make. I believe the buy for the 3 mill was genuine and think it could have even been the same bloke topping up with the 880 000k at 4.10. imo.
As for my last parcel at 21.5 cents. It didn't do to much to my average as i was only topping up and thankfully is a mile in the GREEN.
But isn't it funny though, we, as true RED club members still to this day continue to top up, even at current prices. Thats dedication, thats believing in a company. I don't think i could ever have enough, though my wife would tell you differently. lol.
One last thing, a couple of big XTS in 1 and 2 million dollar lots today. I wonder... Anyhow Go RED Go !!!


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## hugh_jarzz (9 December 2010)

andrewk65 said:


> Hi again
> Just curious on the mechanics of instos and bot buying selling. It appears you consider the three million bid genuine because 2-300 thou were taken out. Is it possible that an insto trying to manipulate price could put the large bid in below to give the buyers confidence, then churn or even sell to themselves on market some way so it appears trades are going through. If they sell to themselves somehow indirectly via 2 brokers or however it works their actual holding would only change when a genuine buyer or seller takes a bite. I believe that if they want the bid can be removed and replaced in an instant to allow genuine buyer/ seller to move thro queue. I have definitely seen a buy of my own get filled from the back of the bid queue while the bids that were in front still show in the stack( using comsec iress!) haven't seen this on red but I have seen it. All the talk of here we go, hold on, instos will buy up etc seems to be exactly what they are trying to create by placing the large bids. I know it sounds like a conspiracy theory but realistically do we believe the new 17c instos are all going to hold well into the 30 c area?




Andrew....you must be aware that the market overall is bedevilled by algorythmic trading these days....trying to ascertain whether a bid for a miniscule amount of stock (3m vs Issued Cap of 1300m) is genuine or not, is a total waste of time. You, I or the stockbroker involved, wouldn't have a clue. Also, if you believe that all the new entrants to the register are likely to be still there at 30c, you need a reality check.....some of the bigger names may still be around but there are plenty who will not have the patience needed to stick with this crew.


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## andrewk65 (9 December 2010)

Thanks Hugh
I certainly feel that plenty of the 17c issue will need to be sold down now before this can get a run on. How can instos from north america or wherever that got placement suddenly care about a company they never heared of until someone calked with an offer of discounted shares in a certain gold mine project. Can't help but think the only way a real move will cone is on a great announcement. I was getting sucked into the mapawa cheer squad but realistically no one knows if there is anything significant there- although there are certainly signs. Ima bit annoyed cos I got sucked into topping up at .215 until I looked closer and saw what looks like selling down of 17c package. U guess none of this ultimately matters as long as we get a good rise into production. Hopefully gold , having made new highs last week I believe?? Has not topped out despite the current retrace. Any opinions on weathergold will move back up past previous high. The last action couldn't be part of a double top could it??


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## Hurricane (9 December 2010)

Personally I feel that the current "green shoots" and tax cuts (haven't heard that term in a while LOL) coming out of the US currently, is what's affecting the GP. I think there are enough fundamental problems going on out there to keep golds run going much longer. Personally I get the impression that we're only just seeing the start of America's exported inflation - can only be a good thing for gold right?


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## andrewk65 (9 December 2010)

The USA still seems to be "fundamentally" a shopaholic with a credit card, and until they stop spending money they don't have nothing will reverse from the current path one would think. The monetary policy seems to be directed to encourage spending?? How does that help other than the short term. 
I'm just nervous about being caught holding a heap of red if the pog music stops for some unknown reason unrelated to what we assume are the driving factors. At the very least you would think some consolidation is due, wonder where the new pog base level will turn out to be.


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## beatle (10 December 2010)

Andrewk65, I understand your concern about the possibility of the gold price coming off in US dollars as it will likely cause all gold shares to come off to some extent, notwithstanding that Aust gold stocks are buffered somewhat by the likely compensating falling away of the A$, but to put the Siana gold project in perspective with the current range of gold prices, I was ecstatic when gold moved up above US$1,000 as it gave the NPV a huge boost from when the initial BFS results were put out, based on an $800 price! Ok, now we don't get the same bang as there are more shares out now, but it still is trading below the fundamental value, on a cps basis (and would do if the gold price was down US$200 per oz!).

If RED share price comes off somewhat due to a slight readjustment in gold price (say down US$200 to around US$1150) then I have no doubt that once Siana is in production there will still be a re-rating upwards of RED share price from current price! Its now just a matter of time for that to happen, IF it doesn't happen sooner IMO. (Put it this way I feel comfortable to hold a fairly reasonable sized parcel of RED with an expectation it will be worth much more in April/May next year!)


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## andrewk65 (10 December 2010)

Hi beatle
I must admit I was looking back at some old posts on hc and I was punching the air when gold hit $1250-1300, so guess I should be happy, can't see it going into freefall unless USA has a radical change in policy. I'm a bit annoyed though by what I can only assume is the new instos playing the sp and dumping their issued shares. I really can't understand why we would really expect them to hold?? If they cared they would have already been holders. Hopefully it's just a matter of time until they get rid of whatever they plan to. Still seems that the main thing is surely there can't be too much downside from here. 15c at absolute worst case I would hope. If you don't mind me asking beatle what would your average cost be of your holding- I assume you are ahead at current levels as it's still close to highs.


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## beatle (10 December 2010)

Hi Andrew, its been a disappointing day for RED although it only fell a little way, but I guess once the cycle is established and the momentum is down then the trader type mentalities of some do get the better of the overall market for the share, and RED is no exception. I agree with your comment that perhaps there is limited downside to the share, knowing what lies ahead and also knowing what price the insto's have bought in at. But who is to know who is selling anyway, although my own view which can't be substantiated, is that perhaps some of the smaller insto holders may have taken profits recently - I don't believe any of the significant players have sold down, but I may stand to be corrected in time - I believe the major holders consider their exit to be at vastly higher prices or a takeover, which they may even instigate!

As for my own shareholdings, well i have bought a considerable number of shares over a number of years, at prices that have ranged all through from around 4 cents (in 1998 or thereabouts, plus during the GFC), through to some over-excited phases when i bought at 18 - 20 cents during a previous surge in 2007,  and more recently around the same price range of 17 - 21 cents! Without wanting to be too specific my holding cost overall is around the  12 -13 cents, but of course if you took a time value of money point of view then its not been a good investment especially with opportunity costs, and also its been creeping up lately with my expectations that with each surge that "this is the one"! 

I agree that if you are making the point I am comfortable because my average price is much lower than the current price, then that is a correct assumption, but more importantly I take comfort that the fundamental value remains considerably higher than the current share price, and I have a very strong belief, having observed it so many times previously that RED will meet and exceed that fundamental value at the time of gold production being successfully initiated, and since the project is stock standard in most aspects, its more a matter of time than if from my point of view.


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## andrewk65 (11 December 2010)

Hi again Beatle
Re your holdings sorry for prying, I wasn't really making a point I was just curious as I know you hold a pretty substantial amount of red. I just like the idea that if this goes up as we all hope you will obviously be in a "life changing" position which seems well deserved based on the patience and support you have shown this company. I've heared of people who have become millionaires based on little companies going big, hope you are one, if not already lol. I was a bit annoyed as I sold a few recently at the 19c levels to fund some other movers, only to see the price start moving up. Ended up buying back in at 21 ish to not miss the bus only to see it fade, hence my whingeing about the instos dumping. I am certainly ahead but must admit if this were to reach a dollar ( dreaming now??) I would be debt free but not loaded. Sounds like you would be set for life at that level, I really hope we get somewhere near, as I would love someone other than faceless instos to make a killing on this one. Good luck to us all i guess. Come on Santa, drop some 50g/t grades into mapawa for us haha. Best wishes to all holders for Xmas and a prosperous new year


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## beatle (11 December 2010)

Hi Andrewk65, not a problem with your prying, I guess that our anonymity on this site safeguards our situation, but I do want you know that my words are backed up by my hard earned investment dollars in RED, and that I do have a fairly broad knowledge of the market and resources companies so consider RED to be outstanding value, even still! I also know exactly how you feel about buying high, I have done that too and I just retain my confidence due to its fundamentals.

I understand how you feel about discounted shares by the insto's, but as I have said before, now when we invest in RED we are going along for the ride, we certainly are not in the drivers seat steering the ship! The insto's are the drivers, but since they are also in it for a big return that is another comfort factor for me and any other smallish investor (even a million dollars worth of RED shares now is small beer relatively speaking!).

Its still a bit early for wishing you Merry Xmas I would have thought, maybe many changes to RED share price and gold price before then, but I do wish you a Merry Xmas if you are away from now on. I do want to emphasise that many US commodity traders are tipping another run on the gold price after Xmas, that was a surprise to me as I would have thought the main interest would be pre-Xmas.


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## andrewk65 (14 December 2010)

Hi Beatle
Im around until next tuesday keeping an eagle eye on red movements. Over xmas im hoping to catch up with a distant family relative in NZ who is apparently a well respected fund manager. He recently left a major NZ fund management company and their recommendation went from Reccomended to AVOID. This is the first year that ive really thought about sharemarket and companies i'm investing in so i hope to get some inside info from him. Im very interested in weather he has heard of Red, and moreso his opinion of matthews and baker steele as they seem to be our major longer term holders.
I get the definite feeling that one issue to be mentioned will be shares on issue. I recently followed matthews into REY and notice only approx 300 mil on issue ( again the amount red ADDED to its shares on issue). After CR at similar discount if not smaller it has gone from 22c previously to 30 today. Mathews is certainly one of the remaining reasons that i keep the faith in Red i must admit, if i see a reduction in substantial holding from them i will really be concerned. Im also hoping to find out if he has any info on the technicalities of trading such as bot trading, blocking bids and offers etc. I know he moves some substancial parcels of shares but never thought to ask how they do it re bots etc. Should be interesting.
Hopefully if nothing else gold will go for another jog past 1420 oz to give us some price movement.
Im curious as to what will make the RED price move significantly between now and gold pour, as there "shouldn't be" any question re production actually happening , and we have a pretty well known resource it appears at Sienna. It seems all the variables re Sienna are now known, other than POG at pour time. Unless i'm missing something either POG or Mapawa announcement are the only factors. The valuations you have on RED at 30c+ in production must be well known to investors now so what are they waiting for. Anyway Time for sleep so good luck to all and hopefully something occurs to make us all happy.


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## beatle (15 December 2010)

Hi Andrew, it sounds like you will get some interesting commentary if your not too distant from your relative, Lol!

When you say ..." He recently left a major NZ fund management company and their recommendation went from Reccomended to AVOID." - are you referring to a recommendation on RED? 

As for pricing of RED, the fundamental value as you will realise from our past discussions, relates to the NPV on a per share basis. As you correctly pointed out, we have done to death a fundamental value for Siana of 30+ cps. But of course it will move around that value depending upon general market sentiment and RED trading momentum. As for Matthews stake in RED, I believe that Matthews may well have been diluted down a tad for JP Morgan et al to enter through the last capital raisings. Personally I don't see this as a bad thing!

As for when will RED share price, if ever, move towards its funamental Siana value, well I can't see it sitting at this current price range once its confirmed that it has successfully made the transition for explorer to significant gold producer - and assumedly that puts a limit on how it can trade at this current discounted level to about May 2011 or thereabouts, assuming things are on track at site. 

And on a separate issue, Mapawa potentially holds a wild card for RED, although I am led to believe that most, if not all, insto's have invested in RED for Siana and Mapawa is just cream at this stage!

All the best to your time in NZ.

Regards,
Beatle


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## andrewk65 (15 December 2010)

Hi Beatle
Re the Nz relative- it was his ex company that was re rated, indicating to me that he is well respected in the industry (must admit I dint know him that well, I was aware he was in the industry but didn't realize how far up he was) I would like to see if he has even heared of Red, but as I say unless his company is recommending red I imagine he will brung up the shares on issue as a problem, well see.
I am curious why red is lagging now that there should theoretically be absolutely no doubt that a mine will be built, if they can't build it with current finance they should be shot. That being the case it seems the market is not overly impressed. This could be a distorted view though I think because a good number of the recent new instos may never have had any intention of holding for long term and are just profit taking IMO. Just seems that at this point all variables are known about sienna and were valued at current levels based on that. Significant movement appears dependent on pog or new news. As I said best thing for me us surely the downside is limited, which used to be one of Rivkins favourite rules before considering upside.


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## andrewk65 (17 December 2010)

Hi again
I've been messing around on hc with some figures but no- one seems to want to comment on weather I am correct or am missing something, wondered if anyone here could help. If we were to reach 30c by production, and produce say 50000 oz in first year that would equate to 3.8c per share earnings on 1.3billion issued. At 30c per share that would give us pe ratio of approx 7-8. At current levels pe would be approx 5. With those figures if they are correct the shares on issue certainly don't seem as bad as I pictured. Also noticed after pointed out by poster on hc that the new substantial holding of jp Morgan was mainly held (50 million shares odd) by their uk asset management fund, which is apparently another respected fund run by Ian Henderson, although I haven't looked deeply into how well they are rated. I had jp down as a broker/ dumper but now seems they also would be planning to hold along with Matthews, baker Steele etc. Maybe things are looking up because if we get gold out as expected and Nothing happens at Mapawa god forbid then surely we will still be on a pe higher than 8???. Something very strange there. Anyone know a typical pe for a producer?? Mml seems to be at around 15. if we got Same pe on 50,000 oz at 1000 per oz (earning .038 per share?) that gives us a sp of 57 cents. That's what I'm talking about.


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## GumbyLearner (17 December 2010)

I have my doubts over RED. Charlie Aitken likes RED5 but he also liked OZ Minerals and that was a huge mega loser. I'm a bit hesitant to buy into this yet.


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## andrewk65 (17 December 2010)

Hi Gumby.
Charlie , is he with southern cross. I would have considered them as also rans compared with Matthews capital, baker Steele, and now apparently JP Morgans UK based resource fund, all of who are now substantial shareholders in red. My main reason for staying in is Matthews , who are regarded by some such as bloomberg and Australian business spectator as one of the top performing fund managers in the world. Before the cr they held 20% of the compAny. I also followed them into Rey, (a coal play)at around 26c couple weeks ago. That one hit 35 this week.  What exactly is making you nervous may i ask?


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## hugh_jarzz (17 December 2010)

Charlie Aitken is a sharebroker who writes a daily strategy note called "Under the Southern Cross"...and yes, he is a Director of Southern Cross Equities. Not sure why you would call him, or them, "also-rans" given that they are stockbrokers, not asset managers. And I think in a global context, JPM, and more particularly the JPM Natural Resources Fund would leave Mathews Capital for dead, certainly in terms of FUM but also in performance measurements over a 5 or 10 year period.


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## andrewk65 (17 December 2010)

I got the impression that southern cross was as you described and charlie aitken after a short bit of research is as you say a commentator. I didn't mean to offend anyone with the also rans comment but got the impression southern cross were like tipsters that put out a load of reccomendations and some pay off some don't. Wouldn't want to put much money in on their word hoping they picked a winner this time. Also ran as in they are in the picture with red, but I would be more concerned if Matthews or other fund managers commented on red. Re the comparison of funds under management I don't think myself that that is such a big deal. These giant fund managers are IMO the ones bleeding us dry with fees and average performance, and the only good thing with them to a degree is the name. If you said AMP were major holders i would say same- massive funds under management but nit much going on. Im certainly no expert in all this stuff but am finding these discussions very informative for research. Feel free to tell me if im seriously underestimating both jp and amp, but it seems to me massive funds under management is mire about security than outperforming rmthe market. Over xmas i might try ti find details on matthews v jp morgan funds performance over 10 years. I know that in finding reference to the JP uk resource fund I haven't yet found any extensive performance figures to compare with Matthews, but I certainly read in more than one place including bloomberg USA that Matthews and phil Matthews were rated in the top precentage of fund managers in the world. Didn't look at the time to see if jp uk fund was there as well as Matthews is obviously only "one of" the top managers so there are others.


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## hugh_jarzz (17 December 2010)

A couple of points
1. Without defending the stockbroking industry, I think your description of one of it's better operatives as a "tipster" is not just derogatory, it ignores the fact that anything Charlie Aitken says is backed by the analysts working for the company, his own wide net of business contacts, and his own intelligence and acumen, picked up from his years in the investment industry.
2. I agree that size alone in the asset management industry is not the be all and end all, BUT, the more successful a fund management group, the more likely it will be that investors will invest with them to participate in that growth. Talking about AMP or any of the other big Aussie groups is a waste of time as regards a coy such as RED as it simply doesn't meet their mkt cap parameters...anything under $1bn mkt cap is regarded as a small cap and they probably CAN'T look at it until it actually starts making money. Mathews is a specialist group which doesn't have the same restraints as the larger funds. 
3. Information on all these funds, AND their performance is available on the net....I suggest you spend a bit of time researching them, if you're concerned.


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## andrewk65 (17 December 2010)

Sorry Hugh wasn't intending to be derogatory to anyone although in hindsight it is. I know I can be a bit abrasive but I like to get to the point and the pertinent info as quick as possible. On many of these chatsutes there seems to be a lot of" I know something really important but I'm not telling you, and I'm not telling you where to look dyor dyor etc" why not just share the sources or info if it is pertinent to the company, I thought that was why we are here. As you mentioned all the info us on the net, do you have any preferred sites that you refer to for that type of information.

I'm still wondering if anyone can help me re the calculations of current price v possible sienna first year earnings. Am I correct in arriving at potentielal EPs of approx 3-4 cents and pe of 5 if that were to occur at current sp. I would have thought this wiuld be a different way to look at valuation and see some possible blue sky with 1 billion shares on issue but as yet no one has fomented on wether I'm anywhere near correct. Not sure if that's cos I'm so far out that it's pathetic, or what the answer is. If anyone can confirm I am at am not in the ballpark that would be appreciated.
Thanks for your comments Hugh, I'm still trying to learn how to "dyor" as everyone keeps saying so any help us greatly appreciated. My comments on southern cross were definitely not researched to any degree, and were just off the cuff opinions.


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## mgm1a (17 December 2010)

andrew 65, my model shows after tax eps as follows
Y1              Yr 2             Yr3          Yr 4          Yr 5
 0.029 	 0.045 	 0.062 	 0.090 	 0.053

I think based on it being a cash producer, with prospective resource at Mapawa and also at further depths at Siana that 5x would be too conservative particularly if POG is as high as we think it will be


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## andrewk65 (17 December 2010)

Hi MGM 
I guess that's the difference in moving from cash losing explorer to cash earning producer. It's a totally different method of valuing, but to my reckoning makes the billion plus shares on issue not such a massive issue as I first thought. Based on your model first year eps if .029, if we had a pe of 15 which sounds around where it ought to be based on others in the sector, that gives us sp of 43 cents per share. I'd gladly take that for starters, and that's with absolutely nothing from mapawa. I guess once in production the shares on issue is not as important as the earnings per share, and if mapawa even turns out nit to eclipse sienna but just be similar that would still effectively double eps if it could be mined in parallel with sienna without compromising output capacity.


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## andrewk65 (21 December 2010)

Hellooo, where'd everyone go.
I thought i might get a bit of feedback especially from Beatle and others on this site re the EPS and PE method of valuing the company. This certainly seems to open up the overhead barrierswrt shares on issue when looking at eps of 3 or 4 c. Seems an income of $40,000,000 with cost per oz approx $400 on 40,000 oz would easily give figures around 3c per share. Am i missing anything as i assumed when they discussed cost to mine per oz as 350-400 i thought that took in everything. Probably not that simple. At 3c per share and what must be a cheap pe at 15 we still get 45c, double current levels. I got pretty excited when i saw this way of regarding current shares on issue- but suddenly everyone seems to have buggered off?? are you there beatle, anderbond etc or is christmas shutdown already in action. Any way best wishes to all if youre away already. Id like someone to let me know if im close to reality or something obvious is missing as ive said previously im still trying to learn the ropes re valuations etc. Seems much easier to hold a fluctuating share when you have confidence in your own valuation. Any help please, am i on the right track??


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## beatle (21 December 2010)

Hi Andrew etc, sorry for the lack of posting, in fact its just by chance that I have got online. After such a long time of pouring over reports and spreadsheets and charts I made an agreement with the missus to have a completely different Xmas/New Year break, that includes no work, no laptop etc! (So now I am cheating just a little bit by getting into an internet cafe!).

With regards to your recent posts Andrew, your general comments re PE etc are quite valid and based on Mgm1a's analysis which has always been very similar to mine (albeit he has now provided for the Sprott debt whilst in my most recent analysis I didn't include that but the difference is negligible in terms of a slightly increased finance cost), I suggest your conclusions about RED's current share price remains highly discounted if it successfully transitions into gold price (always subject to gold price of course). 

In fact in some much earlier analysis I did include PE and EPS work, of course no with the expanded shares on issue, and I remain very comfortable that RED will move appreciably higher once it successfully moves into production - now less that 6 months away!

I have got a good mate who is currently onsite looking at the project and I am expecting some commentary from him when I get back home, but it won't be for a couple more weeks (around mid January), so I will be happy to share that information once I get it. My only knowledge re current status is that Siana remains basically on track, subject to weather still expected to cause havoc since they are in the midst of the rainy season, but slippage due to weather will only be a few weeks at most. But I will post a more meaningful update of status around mid Jan. 

In the meantime I wish all a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, have a RED wine occasionally but don't drive if you do have a drink - I want to share our good fortune with all our RED club members in 2011, a year I believe we will have much more than just the first gold pour, we should all also enjoy share price appreciation finally!


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## Buckfont (21 December 2010)

Hi Red members. Received in the mail today an offer of Wilson HTM`s research paper on RED 5. Complimentary of course. WHTM in their introduction have a target price of 0.29c.

I`ll be interested to read it although I would have no comparison research paper to compare it to, apart from the info on this thread. Must be going through the shareholders, to drum up a bit of business? Surely not

Anyone else received a similar correspondence? Just curious.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all. Bf


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## andrewk65 (21 December 2010)

I got the letter also buckfont. Don't really see the point in reading their opinion as everything we need seems to be in the announcements- ie as long as we star producing as planned or near enough we become cash-flow positive. If we use their valuation at 29c then with a pe of 15 we'd meet to make 1.9c per share which equates to $25 million income. In theory at current gold price and with cost to produce at $400 per oz a fairly simple calculation gives 25,000 oz of gold required to be produced.should be easy. Only thing I'm not really clear on is when the gold prepay has to be stumped up, as I guess that takes 25,000 + oz out of the earnings equation at some point. Anyone clear on how the prepay works as in when it must be paid.


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## mardo (23 December 2010)

Hi Red followers.

Lots of Big boys corporate activity today with 11.8 Mio shares traded,mostly in big crossings.Total shares traded in previous 5 days  was about 6.5 Mio.Lets hope this is a bit of a pointer to some drilling announcements in the new year as their last drilling results are well overdue for Mapawa.


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## mardo (30 December 2010)

Attn.Beatle,MGM,Anderbond and others.

Thanks you guys for some great informative posts during 2010.
I have followed Red for a lot of years on & off and can finally see some great rewards to come over the next 12 months or so.Red 5 will go into production during a gold boom with some very promising exploration upside from Mapawa  and plenty of cash to fund mine and exploration.
I wish you all a prosperous new year and greatly appreciate your posts .


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## anderbond (10 January 2011)

Hi to all RED clubhouse members and a Happy New Year to all! I am just back from 3 weeks in cold cold Japan so am happy to be able to enjoy the Sydney warmth again.
Have come across some web articles re recent rebel activities on Mindanao. In particular it appears that there was a display of armaments by members of the New People's Army in Surigao del Sur. Alleged to be connected to extortion activities and that seven mining companies have reported cases of extortion.
Beatle, I note you have a friend about to return from the site, so perhaps your friend can throw some further light on what is happening. As previously noted in past posts from contributors, Siana and Mapawa are at the northern end of Mindanao, so I will be surprised if there is any effect on operations but further information if available will be appreciated. AB


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## anderbond (11 January 2011)

Hi RED fans and others, my recent contact with the company has resulted in the following:
Siana development build is running more or less to schedule despite abnormal rains and company still believes first gold pour will be in early May. There has been increased New People's Army activity on Mindanao but Siana is not affected so far (there is good understanding of the benefits of the coy's programmes with the community).
Still suffering assay delays plus some deeper drilling problems with Mapawa. Next drilling report expected within week or two, followed by quarterly report.
Thanks. AB


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## hugh_jarzz (12 January 2011)

Thanks for the update Anderbond. I hope they can meet the proposed timetable, as further delays will just reinforce the market view of the company...ie great assets but uncertainty about management capability. And I  really wish they paid even a little attention to PR as the market has been flying blind for some time now...some guidance would do wonders.


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## absolute1 (14 January 2011)

some big volumes last couple of days compare to norm. anyone have any ideas bout this? no recent announcements eaither


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## hugh_jarzz (14 January 2011)

They look like internal portfolio put-throughs...ie a large fund re-organising weightings within various funds. That was certainly the case with the bulk of the volume yesterday. As Anderbond has stated, RED management look as though they'll take their own sweet time in keeping the general market informed. It's often easier to call them direct, which to me, is a totally bizarre way of running a company.


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## fastbuck1 (14 January 2011)

Beatles gone very quite?????????????


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## jancha (15 January 2011)

fastbuck1 said:


> Beatles gone very quite?????????????




Maybe he's still on holiday & hasn't been able to sneak away from the missus to an internet cafe.


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## anderbond (19 January 2011)

Hi Guys, Things have settled back down following last weeks large cross transactions.
SP seems to be following market and gold price to some extent as one might expect.
Drilling report for Mapawa due any day now. Coy has said "four completed holes back but results need to be put in context", but I am unable to throw any light on whether this is a positive or a negative. Time will tell I suppose. Quarterly report also due soon. 
Looking forward to seeing SP move forward on Siana fundamentals at least. HC contributors remain mostly negative or somewhat sceptical towards management. Can't really understand why....if it was so bad how come they have successfully (and easily) raised capital from some big players. Approx 60% of stock in institutional hands must say something, surely. I acknowledge dilution effect but we have all subsequently had the opportunity to top up at issue or close to issue prices each time. Good luck to all!
I will hold on and look forward to attending gold pour in early May. AB


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## hugh_jarzz (21 January 2011)

C'mon Anderbond! Of course holders must be negative towards management!! All the general public have to go on are quarterly reports, at best!! A great way to promote what could be an exciting story!!...and as far as the last capital raising is concerned, Casimir (who?)  were able to get oversubscriptions because gold was running and the offering was at a healthy discount to the market. Sorry, but I for one don't share your seeming disregard for the dilution foisted on long-standing holders, unnecessarily in my view, due to misjudgement by management.  You may not remember, but the raising in late 2009 was meant to be supplemented by a small debt raising...this of course did not happen, and we were diluted even further by the larger than necessary equity raising just completed. I look at other explorer/cum/producers and I must say, the opportunity cost of maintaining my RED position becomes more marked each day. I don't want to be another HC naysayer but, I can see where they're comi9ng from!!


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## mardo (21 January 2011)

Hi Hugh,I hear your frustrations with management, so far they have only had results from 3 deep holes and 6 shallow ones over the past 12 months for Mapawa.Not much of a promotion for a Company with 100 mio in cash.I think the large instros are firmly in control with the trading patterns and price will remain under pressure untill shortly before first gold pour.Its a waiting game & i hope i am wrong about the timeframe.


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## anderbond (24 January 2011)

Hi Guys, drilling report for Mapawa should be imminent, also quarterly report due very soon. Understand CJ has been in Phils over weekend so news very soon. Hard to pump out news if there is nothing much to say or things are moving but not complete. Mine building time is always a news lull period. Holdups with Mapawa assay results haven't helped plus some problems in drilling. I agree it is frustrating. Hugh, in regards to shareholder disenchantment, my view is that if management was not up to it they would not have successfully managed to get so much smart money on board. In terms of whether it was needed, or not....I leave that to the judgement of the management as they have the task of getting the project up and producing. Don't forget there were conditions precedent for the latest gold loan which could derail this if not met. I understand there have been concerns surrounding the foreign ownership corporate structure, and while the Red/Greenstone structure is common in the Phils, it does not mean a lender will go along with things. Going back to earlier last year, no one was happy with the DB finance offer either. My view is that management have done a great job ensuring sufficient funds are on hand to get Siana producing, but others will have their own view. AB


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## mardo (24 January 2011)

Hi Red Holders.Note tonights substancial holdings from Bank of America (Merrill Lynch)since 24/10/2010 increased holding from 115.1 mio shares to 183.4 mio shares .This is another big move just before a long period of hearing nothing from management since AGM on 23rd Nov 10.  I hope this is the start of a re-rating about to occure as RED gets nearer to production currently due April/May this year.


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## anderbond (25 January 2011)

Hi Mardo and Red holders, yes BOA and associated entities have continued to increase their holdings by the looks of it. As said previously, as there is a large anount of smart money on board, it augurs well for the future SP and I believe underlines that we have a strong management team. Otherwise why would the insto's bother as they have an incredible range of opportunities open to them, and to my knowledge assessing the management team is very high on their list of must haves. So it is just a time thing imo. But like others, on some days I feel just a tad jaded and wish for more news. That can sometimes mean it is time to study the red sentiment in the bottom of the glass(lol).AB


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## mgm1a (26 January 2011)

I think you guys are seeing only half the picture -there were 2 notices in Nov. They already held 165m and lent out 54m giving them a new total of 111. 

So they have increased 18m net (183-165) from then till now, not 72m (183-111)

 I can think of 3 possibilities:

1.) Interestingly the Nov.2010 50m was just before the AGM - it could be that a party borrowed the 50m for voting purposes to the resolutions in the AGM?

2.) Or the shares could have been lent out for the purpose of short selling and have now been returned? However I checked ASIC records and there was very little short selling in Oct, Nov and none in December. 

3.) They could also have been assigned over to a CFD provider who wanted to have a (borrowed) hedged position of a certain size while providing RED 5 as a stock to trade on their platform. 

Anyway it still augurs well that they haven't permanently disposed of them


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## beatle (27 January 2011)

Hi RED members, I hope you all had a great Xmas/New Year. I had an extended break as I contracted a lung infection during my holiday which meant i was stuck in confinement for a while and told to rest - not the sort of thing recommended for anyone believe me!

From my perusal of the latest posts clearly there has been a change of overall sentiment to the view taken on RED, to the negative, and with little effort made by RED I can understand why - but of course since we are now in the last days of Jan we can expect a Quarterly out soon - lucky there is requirement to report each quarter otherwise we wouldn't ever know a thing officially!

I have spoken with my mate who was on site just prior to Xmas, and he assures me that the project remains on track, in an overall sense - he believed at that time due to weather in the general area (heavy rains) there was likely to be slippage of some weeks so that final construction completion was likely to be pushed back until May or thereabouts. If that happens then we are less than 4 months away from commissioning and first gold pour! When he was onsite they were putting the finishing touches to the all weather main access road which is critical to get the bigger offsite components safely onsite. He assured me that the project looked like it was being managed well with experienced staff both onsite and in their Manila office, and very impressively monitored by various systems established for the project - at that time it appeared the only cost over-runs of significance were the decision to acquire a back up power unit and the changeover of the mill, those items likely to increase overall cost by a couple of million, which in the context of the total cost was insignificant.

Interestingly my mate believed, but he couldn't confirm it, that the plant seemed to be over-engineered in some respects and that might end up resulting in an increase in throughput, but suggested that might just be his misunderstanding, but it could also lead to higher gold production, sooner than expected!

The management apparently are making some variations to the pit design which will allow a slight increase in gold production by inclusion of some lower grade ore, and this design allows for an alternative entry/exit ramp to the pit, a good safety feature that will also ensure better grade control and pit scheduling can be achieved. 

In regards to Mapawa it seems that the only available laboratory in manila has been inundated with work, and therefore assay turnaround has climbed to an unacceptable 7 weeks or more. This has hampered RED as they need to get far quicker turnaround feedback before planning any deeper drillholes, thus there was some thoughts to either curtailing the deeper drilling until later or some other alternatives. My mate was not sure how that would be played out as the decisions in this regard had not been made. 

I guess we can hope now that RED confirms it remains obstensibly on schedule for commissioning of the Siana plant in May. Most importantly though, it needs to be confirmed that the project remains on track and will be a significant gold producer in its own right by mid 2011.

Now RED please start with your PR!!!


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## anderbond (28 January 2011)

Welcome back Beatle and hope you have a most prosperous 2011 (along with us all!). Sorry to hear of your illness and I hope you are now 100% again. Your friend's comments completely accord with the information I have had back from management so there is consistency. Interesting about the possible over engineering going on...........we must not lose sight of the several other prospects apart from Mapawa. I have also heard there were some equipment problems with one of the drilling rigs.
I am a little undecided on the lack of news flow as the mine build time tends to be a period of less news rather than more and this has been compounded by the holdups in the assay reports for Mapawa. Anyway, we will hear more very soon. There has been a further issue that was discussed last year in respect to the conditions precedent for the gold loan, so I expect we may hear more on this too.I remain convinced that we have a strong conservative management team who will deliver. AB


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## beatle (28 January 2011)

anderbond said:


> Welcome back Beatle and hope you have a most prosperous 2011 (along with us all!). Sorry to hear of your illness and I hope you are now 100% again. Your friend's comments completely accord with the information I have had back from management so there is consistency. Interesting about the possible over engineering going on...........we must not lose sight of the several other prospects apart from Mapawa. I have also heard there were some equipment problems with one of the drilling rigs.
> I am a little undecided on the lack of news flow as the mine build time tends to be a period of less news rather than more and this has been compounded by the holdups in the assay reports for Mapawa. Anyway, we will hear more very soon. There has been a further issue that was discussed last year in respect to the conditions precedent for the gold loan, so I expect we may hear more on this too.I remain convinced that we have a strong conservative management team who will deliver. AB




Hi Anderbond, thanks for your kind words (the illness is better but still recovering actually!), lets hope that 2011 brings great prosperity to us all through RED esp!

Interesting point you raise about the gold loan, in fact i didn't touch on it yesterday but my mate did make some comments about the loan previously - i have asked him again and he told me that at the time they were talking (ie pre-Xmas) ALL the CP's had been met but the issue was more whether RED wanted to draw it down at that time! (In other words they were not pressing for cash at that time - obviously because they already had the equity contribution). I guess RED has some internal reasons not to take it up yet, but as you say, its probably going to be made clearer when the quarterly hits.
With regard to the drilling rig, that must be more recent as all were working when my mate left site.

Shame about the gold price coming off, that will test the nerves of weaker holders, but since my valuation suggests RED is also trading around 50% of Siana value its still good value IF RED finally get on with the PR rather than holding back!


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## beatle (31 January 2011)

Finally the quarterly is out, but it doesn't add so much more to our knowledge apart from the fact that onsite rain is hampering the onsite works, and obviously dewatering has also been affected by the need to manage off-site water through the local drainage. 

I'm not sure if it is well understood that a lot of the steel work fabrication and other work is undertaken both in Manila and Cebu, where the rain is not affecting progress. Thus whilst the onsite works are slowed there is progress elsewhere, and this will assist in ensuring that delays to the commissioning are being kept to a minimum, but management have now conceded that a delay of unknown weeks is expected due to the rain.

Mapawa progress drill results are frustrating indeed, and there clearly has not been satisfactory progress to assess the potential size of the project although there appears to be a recognition that a larger percentage of the deposit may in fact be located at depth - this requires considerable drilling of deeper holes and its amazing to think that drill rod availability is affecting that progress! I'm not sure if this is reflective of an industry wide scarcity of drill rods or related to the drilling contractor involved.

Its frustrating to think that progress has been slow over the past few months but its now just a stones throw from completion so I certainly want to be around when the gold is finally poured!


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## anderbond (31 January 2011)

Hi Beatle, I agree with your assessment of things. Obviously the gold loan issues were resolved as you suggested, and interesting that they are re-negotiating certain borrowing arrangements. The shortage of drilling rods has obviously escalated as a problem as I was aware this was affecting rig no.4, but appears to be restricting drilling across the board. As you say hard to know if it is a local contractor issue (in which case it should be resolved fairly quickly) or a more widespread industry problem. My guess is the latter. Oh well, there goes the shopping expedition in Greenbelt that I promised to someone, at least until another occasion. I will send her to Japan for the mid year sales instead(lol). I hope the report calms a few investors who have been letting their paranoia get on top of them. It would be great to see the SP make some more headway. Of course, a more steady (positive)news flow might help in this regard.AB


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## andrewk65 (1 February 2011)

Hi all, welcome back Beatle, glad you made it thro Christmas. Just wondered from the report, could they be considering not using the gold prepay and if so are they not liable for any cost? Seemed at the time that the prepay would cost going on for 40 million for 25 mil credit, so could be a big benefit on earnings for the early years if the money is not used? That would be a good thing after the taking of extra funds in cr. At least shareholders would have the equity rather than giving away the cash to finance provider?


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## beatle (1 February 2011)

Hi Andrew and thanks. Yes I made it through Xmas  but only by the skin of my teeth!

Interesting point you raise about the debt, and of course no one will know the answer to those questions other than those involved in the original agreement, but I'm not sure if the original debt (and thus the agreement) was ever considered to be a standby facility thus the agreement probably doesn't cover a restructuring of it to include a standby component which would usually have a lesser cost associated with it.

All I would comment on is that I am comforted that RED have had no need to draw down any debt funds to date, and from my reading of the report RED probably won't need to draw down any of the debt facility, or if they do it certainly is unlikely to be a significant amount of the total amount offered - the slight increase to capex with the new mill and the power plant do not add more than a couple of million to the overall costs. 

Hi Anderbond, with regard to the report steadying some of the investors nerves, I agree that as a total status report it does give one a sense that its a development going along as planned and scheduled apart from the rain, which in the overall context will only delay the development for a matter of weeks, but nothing of significance (having waited for how many years now, I am getting excited!). I still stick to my original view that once it gets close to commissioning, say the last month if not before, there is going to be a strong interest shown in RED by serious investors (such as the bigger insto's already on the register, JP Morgan, Baker Steel, Matthews etc) that will make RED a standout - that will be the time we see a break out in the price above its current trading range. Then maybe your someone can go to paris for summer rather than japan, lol.


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## beatle (2 February 2011)

Good to see the RED price up even without any news being offered, other than the gold price up and overseas markets on the move up again! 

I would like to think that these major insto's on board start doing the hard yards and mopping up the weak sellers now, so that when the project is ready to produce gold in a few months time RED's share price goes up with just strong hands on board, that way we will get much more lift by forcing buyers pay a premium for all our hard earned frustrations of the past!

Go RED go (UP!)


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## mgm1a (2 February 2011)

hi beatle -glad to hear your're back in good health.

What did you think of the Mapawa results ? 

Did it raise an eyebrow about the "43.1g/t gold being recorded within a broader intersection of 37 metres at 3.0g/t gold and 3.6 ppm silver " ?

Most of the intervals looked small (depending on where they are located on the site??) but MD0013 at 269m looks pretty darn good.


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## beatle (3 February 2011)

Hi Mgm1a, thanks and by the way some excellent analysis and posts of yours whilst I was away.

With regard to Mapawa its very frustrating as the drilling has only continued to tease us, and you are quite correct that without the holes being plotted out (and I haven't had the time to do so yet) its hard to get a better sense of how its coming together, but we have to rely on RED's geological nous. 

There is no doubt that the mineralisation is widespread and RED's final comments "Current drilling has stepped out 300m, 500m and 1,000m to the west to probe the potential of the system. The interpretation of this partially blind porphyry based on 13 completed holes is that the system probably dramatically increases in size with depth" gives me hope that the system remains a potential elephant - also knowing that RED has another few large porphyry targets that have been hardly touched (esp on the Siana MPSA), and that knowing that Boyongan with +100 million tonnes sits within 20 kms of similar lithology/similar alteration styles gives me confidence we will find sufficient mineralisation for a standalone porphyry operation, but it will take a while to get it together.

The higher grade quoted towards the base of MD13 is similar to some of the grades reported at surface within the trenching programme (38 m @ 2.5 g/t etc), so its another positive confirmation of the mineralisation being widespread.


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## anderbond (7 February 2011)

Hi fellow RED members and others, recently I came across another new ASX listing of a company called Mindoro Resources (MDO). It has a nickel laterite operation running not that far from Surigao. In addition there are a number of copper/gold prospects held. The purpose of letting you know this is that their website has some technical information on the typical Philippines copper/gold porphyry deposits which I have found quite informative as I do not have Beatle's technical background and knowledge. It has helped me understand more about seeking "elephants". AB


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## beatle (7 February 2011)

Hi Anderbond, and a most informative prospectus you refer to for MDO which in part provides a broader regional perspective of gold-copper projects in and around Surigao - I wish I deserved some of your flattery AB, but as with you I am also picking up information along the way.

RED price appears to be picking up a bit of steam over the last week, maybe as gold price slide has steadied a tad, and from other posters on HC etc there now appears to be a few more brokers and others (Fat Prophets) starting to recommend RED as one of the picks in the smaller gold producer space.  Even CB2's found another positive TA commentary in HC. I still have a view that on Siana alone RED is valued in the low 30's. 

We still are none the wiser about whether it will take on US$25 million debt to add to its already significant cash coffers. 

And as each week goes by we are just that bit closer to the first gold pour - surely that will ignite the market as it gets closer!


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## ubtheboss (9 February 2011)

beatle- Two things that the market tends to hang its hat on when it comes to gold producers are- production cost per ounce (relative to the price of gold) and the target for the # of ounces to be produced per annum.

I've followed your posts and you seem pretty clued in on RED.  Do you know:

- at what gold price RED is valuing their JORC?
- what their projected per ounce cost will be?
- what their annual production target is?

I was comparing companies like FML, RMS, SLR and seeing how the differing numbers in those categories really made a difference to the sp (beyond other measures like # shares on issue)

Cheers


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## beatle (9 February 2011)

Hi Ubtheboss, good to be able to post on a day when the gold price is looking stronger! Whilst RED's valuation based on Siana already assures us of a fundamental value in the low 30's cents range on a gold price around the 1,300 plus mark, the market seems to be more inclined to react to the "direction" of the gold price (especially if its going down!) rather than the absolute price (probably because the valuation is based on forecasting gold price for a number of future years).

Now to the specifics of your question re RED:
You may have noted that RED has provided a year by year summary of cost of production, total gold production etc as part of the BFS a while back - that summary, reported to the ASX on 16 July 2009 provides the basis of the cashflow analysis that MGM1a and myself have used for the company. However, since that time there have been other variations, which impact on the financial analysis, some of which can be provided for, such as the equity/debt mix to cover capital costs plus working capital (but we are still waiting for RED to decide if it will take up a debt component - that is why I have not been quoting a valuation to the detail of specific cents value whilst its uncertain whether the debt will be provided and on what basis, not that the debt will have a huge impact on valuation since a lot of the debt is surplus to Siana requirements).

The unknowns that have developed since that basic BFS analysis relates to more recent work that has been done, to improve the ore:waste ratio about the haul ramp (now there are 2 ramps - originally 1 was provided for but now there are 2 slightly narrower ramps thus improving the ore:waste ratio) and RED has also added some additional material (at marginally lower gold grade) to marginally increase mineable gold inventory. Additionally a mate of mine who recently visited site believes, but not confirmed by RED management, that the mill throughput is slightly above the original specification (note that RED purchased a different mill than the original unit bought second hand) which will improve annual ore throughput (and therefore a slight improvement in unit operating cost, $/tonne, but how that reflects in $/oz is unquantifiable until we know the slightly increased reserve delineated with the ramp and ore zone variations).

As a summary of the original BFS, the open pit resource was subjected to a Whittle 4D pit optimisation based on a gold price of US$650/oz gold and US$10/oz silver. The financial analysis used quoted for the base case financial analysis used by RED at that time was US$800/oz gold.

Gold production was originally expected to ramp up from 45,700 ozs gold (first year is a part year), then 72,200 oz, then 90,300 oz, then 127,100 ozs (year 4). The production schedule covered the reserve life of 10 years (but a minor fraction of that production schedule includes resource not included as reserve). The AVERAGE total cash cost of production over the 10 years estimated is US$351/oz, but that includes the operating costs of both underground (commencing in year 4) and open pit. It indicates that the operation is very robust over a much lower gold price.


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## ubtheboss (9 February 2011)

Thanks for that beatle.  Brilliant post!


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## beatle (9 February 2011)

Its a pleasure Ubtheboss, I wish the RED share price was a bit more pleasurable (lol)!!!

I believe that once the water level in Siana pit is dropped with the current dewatering process underway, IF RED decides to put a photo of the partially dewatered historic pit on their website and a status report to the market, it could be the initiation we have been waiting for, especially to those long doubting thomases who don't think the project will ever produce gold - I can imagine that RED must be half way through that process now, although I understand that they were not in a hurry to dewater to base too soon for logistical reasons (and of course it depends on when the major rains in the area have slowed). 

Just a pic RED, say in a couple of weeks time, thats what I would like to see as part of their PR (HINT!!!).


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## Buckfont (9 February 2011)

Hi Red 5 members. Received this in my in box today, from Andrew Richards of Petra Capital. I make a point that I dont know Andrew. The email was dated 31 Jan 2011.

To quote:-

Siana - Heavy Rains Impact

1.5m of rain received in January at Siana = 3x average

Build progress has slowed

Production target of early May will be missed



Despite rain, progress had been good

Mining pre-strip has progressed ~50m vertical

Grid power connected and reticulated on site

Refurb of emergency power plant 78% complete

Concrete foundations for all 6 CIL tanks and cyanide detox plant completed

All major equipment complete and awaiting delivery to site – SAG Mill, rolls crusher, apron feeder

75% of capital cost now firm orders/contracts



Finance – fully funded

Cash at hand $81M

US$25M gold prepay facility (Sprott) – discussions on drawdown or as a standby facility ongoing

Capex to complete construction - $57.6M

Additional US$10M in working capital required to get to steady state production

US$10M in exploration budgeted 2011



Mapawa

Best results include 37m @ 3.0g/t Au, 10m @ 1.6g/t Au & 0.3% Cu

Based on completed 13 holes – interpretation is that the system probably dramatically increases in size with depth – further drilling required

Assay results for a further 4 holes are awaited

Due to rain drilling has been temporarily suspended



Comment

A disappointing outcome but a temporary setback only

We have pushed production back 2 months to early July

FY11 NPAT of A$6.5M reduced to loss of A$1.4M

FY12 NPAT reduced from A$49.8M to A$43.7M (PE 5.0x)

FY13 unchanged at A$45.5M (PE 4.8x)

NPV unchanged at A$0.27ps

We believe significant rerating is likely with RED 5 as we approach first production with target shareprice of 27cps (+60%)



Regards



Andrew Richards

Petra Capital Pty Ltd 


I hope the information above is helpful and is not much of a repeat of previous posts.

Cheers. Bf


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## andrewk65 (11 February 2011)

"probably dramatically increases in size with depth", maybe they should have added "we hope". Hope that doesnt translate to nothing significant found so far, but seems to be the case. Re the start date for the mine the only date you can be sure production will not begin by is whatever date they pick. Ive never heared of a project yet that has been finished on time, so thats just par for the course. I assume that the deeper the resource gets at Mapaw the moreexpensive it is per oz to extract?


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## beatle (14 February 2011)

Looks like RED will continue to consolidate around current price levels until there is clarity on the timing of the first gold pour! If one hasn't already got their fill then its a good time to do so, and for us that are up to the eyeballs its a time to take some time out from looking at the RED screen! I am very comforted that we now have a few big brothers looking after our interest, and surely when its closer to that first gold pour they will be leading the way to pushing RED to higher prices!

As for Mapawa, it seems that the lab plus the weather plus the steel rod industy have conspired to make this a long drawn out affair. 

I hope that RED management can get their PR worked out whilst they have some time to do so, to ensure that when there are runs on the board then they have the capacity to market the story!!!


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## beatle (18 February 2011)

RED share price seems stuck in a sodden rut at the moment! And yet there is trading liquidity, with Bots trading between themselves, a bit like posting to myself on ASF at the moment, lol!!!

BUT as each day goes by brings us closer to that first gold pour!!! I had a chat with one of the directors the other day and he confirmed to me that they are progressing now onsite, and the rain is not the problem that it had been. He was very positive about how things were progressing after some frustrating times in January with the rain bucketing down at that time. 

I came across this interesting link posted on HC by good old Yuyu (thanks mate, keep the faith!), and I copy it here hopefully he won't mind me doing so! It relates to exploration by a Canadian company on the ground adjacent to Mapawa (it was mentioned earlier by others too, but whilst pondering when RED is gonna break 18.5 cents it passes the time refreshing ones memory!):

http://www.rugbymining.com/pdf/news/Rugby_news_110209.pdf


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## mgm1a (18 February 2011)

The buy depth at 18c is now 2.5m - I had been expecting a dump into this for last 2 days - but not to be -excellent sign that selling may have stopped or rather that the seller is refreshing the sell point at 18.5c as it empties.
The for the last few days the inevitable 18c close!
Given those facts and the solid fundamentals plus the sell queue at 20-22 (readers of ASF,HC) this is looking pretty solid (but still underperforming!!).

Beatle have you heard anymore regarding the dissension votes in the last AGM regrding Dundo , JAckson re-election?


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## fastbuck1 (19 February 2011)

beatle said:


> RED share price seems stuck in a sodden rut at the moment! And yet there is trading liquidity, with Bots trading between themselves, a bit like posting to myself on ASF at the moment, lol!!!
> 
> BUT as each day goes by brings us closer to that first gold pour!!! I had a chat with one of the directors the other day and he confirmed to me that they are progressing now onsite, and the rain is not the problem that it had been. He was very positive about how things were progressing after some frustrating times in January with the rain bucketing down at that time.
> 
> ...




Hi Beatle did you happen to mention to the director you were talking with about pr problems that exist, the only way we will see upward price movment is with ann large or small, no matter how good a project is a investor will alway be looking for greener pastures if bordom strikes.


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## mardo (19 February 2011)

HI Mgm /Beatle
The big problem with the Red SP is that it is not moving up with the improved sentament with gold price (now up $70 over past 3 weeks).I agree we seem to be at a mexican standoff with the 18-18.5 nearly all week and i cant see much change untill we get some sort of update  from the company.During this slow time of the build it would be great to get just a few photos of their progress or maybe nothing till the next quarterly due end of April.In the meantime this is a longer time hold anyway.


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## andrewk65 (19 February 2011)

It will certaily be interesting to see if there are any substantial holder changes in the near future as i saw quite a few trades of the 2,4,16,32 type bot trades this week. The big question is who is building or getting rid. Either way why would you give in now? Will be interesting to see what POG does if it gets back to the $1420 levels, seems a bit soon for mine, a bit more consolidation would have been good. If it pushes on up as we start production guess we'll all be happy


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## beatle (23 February 2011)

RED continues to tread water at present, regardless of the gold price and the markets general sentiment. i see that as a good thing as it does show that the price has been able to resist a slump like many other small stocks have suffered the past few days. 

I believe that it will remain in this holding pattern for the time it takes to confirm that there is real progress on the construction at Siana. From my most recent update the rain has not fallen away so quickly as has been the general case in Feb for the Surigao region in past years, thus it has made things such as concrete pours out of the question (the mill foundation is yet to be poured). Despite this all the extraneous things that can be done on site have been progressed and of course the off site construction work, as much as can be done, has progressed as well. 

Therefore as soon as the rain cuts out the onsite works will begin in earnest for the final move towards commissioning. Nevertheless its likely that the commissioning will be late june or thereabouts. I understand that the pit dewatering was slowed due to the high volumes of water being drained from natural rain runoff into the river system toward Lake Mainit, to ensure that it didn't exacerbate the situation (even though the Siana water is of high water quality and would in fact improve the clarity of the water being introduced into the rivers from natural runoff!). Notwithstanding this, the dewatering has progressed sufficiently so that the first bench of the old pit is now visible, and the first phase of dewatering has demonstrated that the pumping capacity is substantially more than necessary to complete the dewatering as required when its more suitable to complete.

I agree with Mardo that some pics of the Siana construction and dewatering would go so way to help those more frustrated shareholders get an idea of how things are going. 

I still believe that whilst RED is in this holding pattern, that its possible to build up a position in readiness for the final move upwards once the gold pour nears - of course, always subject to your views on gold price, state of the general market etc. Those of us choc-a-bloc with RED shares its just a matter of getting ready to count our money (sort of, lol!).


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## hugh_jarzz (24 February 2011)

Hi Beatle....just think how much more money we should be counting, were it not for our fearless leaders!! No skin in the game to speak of....guess they're not as optimistic as we are!! I have lightened my holding marginally and built up a stake in Beadell, but I'm still here.


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## beatle (25 February 2011)

Hi Hugh_Jarz, good to know you are still around, even if you have lightened up. I must admit I look at all the lost opportunities too of the money invested, but now for me its a matter of seeing it out and not missing out at some vital stage that has a limited timeframe to play now. In the meantime I have invested in other far more speculative resource explorers, on a limited basis, and mostly enjoyed the ride - its been a phenomenal couple of month for most of the smaller end of the market, and its so frustrating that RED has failed to get it together.
As for your comment about skin in the game, I agree that all bar one on the board has no significant equity position in RED and its a strange thing that the one that does have real equity fails to see how he could benefit financially by stepping to the side to let a more capable guy take over the reins of the company whilst he directs project operations. I guess I will never understand that, but then its all about ego which I have never let stand in the way of an obvious process, personally speaking. I do suggest that you should be ready for a time, soon, when RED might start to out-perform the market, at that time if you haven't had your fill then you might regret it.


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## hugh_jarzz (25 February 2011)

Only pared about 10% so still a significant holding for me...can only agree 100% with your comments which highlight, for me, the underlying problem with this company ie management's egos! They just aren't as good as they think they are. I am encouraged by the progress at Siana, despite the adverse weather, but remain absolutely dumbstruck by the time it is taking to delineate Mapawa....getting on for 18 months now and I reckon they have only scratched the surface of what could and should be a priority, along with Siana....after all, the additional funds taken at the last raising were supposedly to REALLY crack on with the drilling of Mapawa. I have yet to see any extra effort made there yet except for the extra effort made in justifying the lack of progress. A PR appointment should be a priority as relying on the odd poster who has an "in" with Jackson or whoever, is definitely NOT the way to disseminate news to your wider shareholder base. I was a tad surprised to see Mathews Capital buy more to get back to 19.9% or thereabouts and was wondering whether their decision has anything to do with the review of the iniquitous gold loan agreement with those Dick Turpin's of the Canadian market ie Sprott!


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## beatle (25 February 2011)

I agree that its a positive that Matthews has bought a few more to bring it close to the brink of 20%, at least we know the main shareholders are committed - it would be fantastic if they crept above 20% in coming months, that would be a complete surprise to most I would think (but maybe they are already full at 19.2%!!!).


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## anderbond (1 March 2011)

Hi Beatle, Matthews have been a cornerstone investor for many years now, so it is not really a surprise to see them topping back up. Expect them to stay just below 20% to avoid triggering things. On another aspect, I am a little puzzled by your calls for the MD to stand aside. I know that media announcements have been a bit lacking,compared to some other companies, but I don't think this in itself justifies removal or stepping aside. In my experience, the announcements made by many companies can be thin on the ground at times. If I think back a few years, there was a need to get greater institutional support to get the project moving forward. That has been well and truly achieved with a good foundation of institutional holders, including some very shrewd investors. In addition, there is now a strong team of people involved at management level, including a highly qualified project director in David Jerdin. So I am a bit mystified at your comments, remembering you also made similar comments a few weeks or months back. Can you elaborate on your comments?
AB


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## hugh_jarzz (1 March 2011)

Market sources suggest that Mathews were not best pleased with the recent capital raising and that behind the scenes, there may have been some hard questions put to RED management. Personally, I wonder whether the announcement about the re-assessment of the Sprott gold loan may have been allied to this dissension, and that Mathews may have decided to get back to their previous equity level, once this had been thrashed out. As far as the GM is concerned, he has been a rather remote figure, to say the least, and suggestions that he was the reason that all these "smart" investors have gotten involved is totally off the mark. As much as I like the project, I just can't get excited about management, and I think that is the major reason for this company's continued underperformance, (as I may have said before) is  that the really smart investors use 3 criteria for investment..ie. management, management, management and I still feel RED fail on all 3 counts!!  The market is rarely wrong and it's trying to tell us something!


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## anderbond (1 March 2011)

Hi Hugh, your comments re the market and the rather remote MD are fair enough in my view. I am not suggesting that the MD is the actual reason that institutions have become involved, but rather that the executive team/board have so far managed to get these insto's excited enough to buy into the company. Given that there is an absolute smorgasbord of opportunities in front of the insto's, then if their judgement is based on three criteria as you suggest, then management must have come up at least ok on these. Otherwise if there was doubt, why would the insto's get on board? I too heard that there was some disquiet with some of the insto's but I feel that any concerns have been put to rest. There are plenty of times when the market gets it wrong, so I am not at all concerned about where things stand at present with the SP. I too like everyone would like to see the SP trade more towards the underlying value, but that will come in time. That is the beauty of the market....trying to get ahead of it rather than follow the profiteers. My question is more about what has management done wrong (other than not put out "no news "type media bulletins)? AB


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## mgm1a (1 March 2011)

hugh_jarz, anderbond, you obviously have ears into market...as one who doesn't i can only speculate.....

That would fit with the dissension voting at AGM on re-election of Dundo, Jackson (circa 200m shares) that is still not explained, and would fit with MAthews not lifting their support in last capital raising (i.e. using non-participation to make their displeasure know to board over [unknown matter? /strategy?]  but then going to market later to top up.)

I just can't think what would have fired them up so much, even the misstep around debt finance seems borderline ......i can only speculate .... perhaps Mathews had proferred a merger/friendly t/o or something of the sort but have no information other than speculating that it would fit


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## beatle (2 March 2011)

Hi guys, sorry for sleeping in action, I've been doing a few other things the past day (primarily cos RED is in a holding pattern at the moment!). 
Whilst not wanting to inflame the fire but having stirred the hornets nest somewhat previously Anderbond, I have made my view known re the MD for a couple of reasons, but please keep it in perspective of the situation we find ourselves in currently.

I am of the view that RED is an ASX listed vehicle, and whilst there may well be some big international insto's on the books now, everything still revolves around RED getting good coverage in Australia. Since GE has indicated his intention to remain in Manila on a continuing basis for an unstated period, and clearly enjoys the tasks associated with getting the project up and running, then he is best suited to be the Project Director. But at the same time RED must be managed in the same way he runs the project. There is no way he can manage the day to day company activities whilst still trying to get the project up and running. Its as simple as that. And I believe it is reflected in the lack of PR we see on a daily basis for the company - remember that CJ appears to be the main corporate director for the company, and he is not in an executive position within the company, he is the non-executive chairman! Thus whilst CJ is involved in most of the corporate activities such as fund-raising etc, he is not there full-time! 

I would like to see the Man Dir position ultimately go to a candidate that is Australian based, a more fully conversant corporate player, who has good relationships with the mining industry but also has the complete confidence in continuing to represent the company with the insto's, brokers and bankers, and us in the public as well.


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## geezuguys (2 March 2011)

Hi Beatle, Anderbond, Mgm1a, Hugh and others.  

This is my first post but I've been following things silently from the sidelines for several months.  For the record I too have a slab of RED and like to think I understand the story pretty well.

Aren't we at an interesting stage with the company moving rapidly toward producer status.  Meanwhile the gold price continues north (and I believe has a long way to go - S & P research is on the record that it will be $US1600 by year end)!  What does that mean for a producer with a cost of extraction at $351?  What does it mean for the share price?

The issue here is that RED isn't quite a producer yet, so we are in this high anxiety period whilst the transition is happening.  Human nature being what it is, people will always read more into something than necessarily exists.  You only have to look at the share price over the past couple of months.  People will be paying a lot more than the current price several weeks from now - that is for certain!

Are the insto's selling right now?  No way!  If anything they're topping up (eg. Mathews).  And remember RED is only a small part of their portfolios (in most cases).

What about RED management?  Well my view as a SH is that having such a hands-on CEO right in the middle of where it's all happening is the best possible scenario right now as construction hits full pace.  No doubt there are all sorts of decisions best made on site - with contractors who are being paid $millions, equipment being assembled in Manilla and strategically, lots off issues to be dealt with - can only be better off with the key decision maker right there.  To my knowledge GE has been with RED from the early days and he is no doubt passionate about seeing Siana through to reality.

Staff, contractors, local authorities, local community, timing the key arrival of core components, dealing with the implications of the 'big wet' they have been experiencing (hopefully it's eased now!). Honestly, if GE was sitting in Perth right now - I would be very uncomfortable.

I agree with the unanimous view that management can better handle the communication process.  Just some reassurance that things are moving forward would do.  Obviously the focus is strongly on getting Siana infrastructure built and the mine producing.  Meanwhile, communication to shareholders (i.e. owners) is not brilliant.

With the rains - no doubt there will be some delays to first pour date, but a few weeks or even a month or two is not a big deal in the big picture scheme of things.  Ensuring the construction all comes together and we have a robust structure capable of delivering, is all that matters.

I wish everyone well.  Our day is not far away.


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## beatle (3 March 2011)

Great to get your post Geezuguys, especially since you clearly make a lot of very relevant and positive points about RED and GE etc. And its great to get you posting within the RED forum because we all benefit by the various views provided from shareholders coming from different angles. 

I have no disagreement regarding there being slippage of a couple months in first gold pour being of little significance, particularly having held a rather large number of shares for around 14 years (which has been added to significantly since then of course), and it seems that its unlikely the project will slip any significant amount of time beyond around 2 months (say june 2011), and from then on huge monthly profits as you point out Geezuguys! 

As regards the gold price, and it seems we are forging new all-time highs at the moment, RED has got all the positives going for it at the moment, especially with no hedging in place (despite my personal view that I would prefer some percentage of gold hedged to lock in sure profits!). 

But I believe even in this high gold environment the market needs to be able to see differentiation between RED from other gold developers come producers and also it needs assurance that the project development is proceeding. A picture paints a thousand words, and therefore it would be fantastic for RED to send some more pics of the current pit dewatering plus latest construction pics of the treatment plant, as soon as its clear the project at site is back on development once the heavy rains have stopped.

As has been mentioned by many other posters on the RED threads, its not a matter of IF now, but more of WHEN!!! And the substantial shareholders such as Matthews surely are putting action to their views, at the moment!


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## beatle (3 March 2011)

Speak of the devil, re my last post. I had no idea that we might get the update a couple of hours after my post, but I guess its better to know we stand, and its clear that they have had a lot of rain in that part of Phils! And having gone through the same inundation ourselves of late I guess the weather is something that has a mind of its own!

But on the positive side, we can see from the pretty pics that work has indeed progressed and that the project will be full steam ahead once the rain subsides - if you look at an annual spread of the rainfall in the surigao region you will note that by end of Feb the rainfall seems to fall away fairly rapidly (historically of course!), and so we can't be far off getting some giant steps forward onsite. Lucky they are doing lots of fabrication work etc off-site, so its the main tasks of laying foundations etc that will be the rate determining step for the project. I love that last statement ..."A date for the first gold pour will be advised post pouring, curing and certification of the mill foundations." Makes me feel excited, and actually the share price where it is provides a great buying opportunity at present (but don't mention it to the Missus!).


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## andrewk65 (3 March 2011)

Hi all
Its good to hear some news through the veil of silence, although i guess the update shows that there is basically just the expected progress going on. Im more surprised that the 20 million dollars odd of accelerated drilling on Mapawa is not mentioned? Have they put that on hold brmecayse of rain or Sienna build? not overly concerned anyway, if its good enough for matthews its good enough for me. Seems like a very secure base price is forming, and the only way is up, especially with new gold highs and the mad mullas in the middle east trying to kill each other again. Just waiting for the handbrake to be let off now. I got a few more at 18c cos there diesnt seem to be any serious downsude from here.


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## geezuguys (6 March 2011)

Hi all, 

Just to share some of my research etc - the concrete once poured takes about 28 days to cure.  This time requirement is critical to ensure the natural strength of the concrete is attained to support the mill.  

Let's assume the worst of the rains have passed (which it appears they have) and the concrete is poured in the next couple of weeks, by say 20 March.  If we then allow until say 20 April for it to be certified, things are then ready for the mechano set to come together.

In the meantime, a lot of planning comes into play - with the timing of barging the SAG mill across as well as other key components.  You can see how having GE close at hand is really strategically beneficial to the project right now.

FYI, I am not an engineer and do not have inside knowledge, am just trying to paint the picture of how things might progress from here.  Overall with some good coordination and management, timing can be optimised to minimise delays.  

As per this week's announcement from GE, it will be post curing of the concrete that an announcement re first gold pour will be made.  I estimate this announcement will be approx last week April / first week of May.

In the meantime, as you can see from the volumes and turnover, it's not the big (i.e. smart) money that's bailing out in the current daily action - but clearly the small guys who get frightened by alligators under the stairwell and other movement in the shadows.  All the while, whilst they're deciding whether to sell at 17c or 17.5c, gold is reaching new heights and other gold stocks are growing to PE's of 15 to 20x (e.g. NCM).

Meanwhile RED at current PE's is ~ a projected 5x (and barely factoring in the current significant gold price inceases). 

On another note, good to see the role of Exploration and Technical Manager is soon to be filled.  This role is all about Mapawa.  In recent times the weather has hampered drilling as has the turnaround in assay times and lack of drill rod extensions (for the deeper bores) - as we all know.  The other problem has been reliance on contractors to effectively progress the exploration strategy.  I suggest that with this new appointment (i.e. a senior position which will report directly to GE) and some better turnaround times on assays (which has recently been negotiated), we will see an acceleration in the exploration of Mapawa - and subsequent results!  Don't worry, if the gold and Cu is there (which we know from what has been identified so far that it is), it will be found and reported - it's just a matter of time.  

The other issue which has hampered exploration in recent months is of course the weather.  I have been informed that a lot of the targeted drilling is on the side of hills which (with the truck based drill rigs) has meant that continuing the drilling in the past couple of months has been nigh on impossible (i.e. risk of mud slides, risk to workers etc.)  Keep in mind, they have had 2.8m of rain since 1 January [yes! that's as high as our ceilings!].  The next several months will yield much more useful Mapawa insight.

Cheers,
Geez


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## mgm1a (7 March 2011)

Geez, nice comments

This seems to have slipped past OGC & RED posters...

"OceanaGold CEO Mick Wilkes wants to acquire additional gold and copper assets in south-east Asia and looks closely at the Philippines." (OceanaGold looks to the Philippines for growth. AFR 21/2/11)

Article mentions CGX,MML,RED. OGC have a $650m.cap, good cashflow and a project in Phil.s that has had history. Given that CGX,MML caps. far execed Oceanas and don't have as much apparent upside as RED, I'd have to say that at $225m RED must be on the radar?


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## hugh_jarzz (7 March 2011)

I certainly hope not....what can Oceana offer, apart from superior management? I haven't stuck around this long for a predator to acquire the company at a discount to the long term potential.


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## beatle (7 March 2011)

GeezUguys, some more interesting points made, and I agree with your comments about it being an advantage for GE to be onsite/Manila for the construction and ongoing project involvement. My point regarding management does not relate to that if you read my post more carefully. Regardless, I think we all agree on one thing - RED is totally undervalued currently and it remains a fantastic buying opportunity at current prices for those not fully invested at this point.
With regard to your point about the smaller holders being the sellers at the moment, do you have any proof of that - do you know for a fact that none of the insto's that took up the placements in recent times remain holders and not selling down? If that is the case it is another confirmation that smaller shareholders should consider their positions carefully before selling out to the insto's.
As for Mgm1a's comments about the possibility of a takeover from Oceanagold or another party, well my view is to "bring it on", contrary to Hugh_Jarzz view! A takeover at this time and price would only highlight to the market that RED is undervalued, and it would most likely be the initiating factor to take RED price up to a more reasonable level, and would not necessarily, in fact unlikely, to succeed! That's why RED won't get taken out at the moment as it would just accelerate the share price up to a more reasonable level. 

A successful takeover of RED would have to be priced on the basis of fair priced value of Siana, PLUS some discounted value of Mapawa, thus its unlikely to be successful below around 40 cents. Since Siana is yet to be commissioned for a few months, and thus is yet to be fully derisked, its unlikely anyone would seek to take a view on Siana valuation, and with limited recent knowledge of Mapawa potential its hard to see anyone putting in a bid at this time. But any attempt to put a value on RED now, in terms of a takeover, would certainly open up us long term shareholders to getting the value we expect for RED.


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## geezuguys (8 March 2011)

Hi Beatle, you make a valid point re the valuation of RED.  Oceana with the Dipidio project  and a 2013 production date - has no doubt eyed off RED as an attractive candidate.  Would RED's Board view any offer to takeover as attractive with production only a couple of months away? Answer is - only at the right price!  As they say, everything is for sale at the right price.  What would that price be from Red's perspective?  I'd say there would need to be a significant premium for Mapawa built in.  At 40c to 45c why wouldn't shareholders agree on the short term?  OceanaGold at current levels - could only see upside for Oceana in such a deal.  Of course, overall view on gold price has to be north as mine is.  Hard to see the downside of such a deal.  N.B would be happy to hold Oceana at current prices if said transaction were to occur.  And there's always a stock such as RMS and its current quality assets!  We wouldn't go wanting post such a transaction!  Cheers, Geez.


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## geezuguys (8 March 2011)

Hi Mgm

I note your comments re my previous post.  Well spotted on the Oceana front.  Good stuff!  Cheers Geez.





mgm1a said:


> Geez, nice comments
> 
> This seems to have slipped past OGC & RED posters...
> 
> ...


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## Atomic (8 March 2011)

knock at the door! 
NCM calling with a new md and cash to burn, 

i feel he will need a win of some kind to cement his role and prove he's worthy,
what do you think of this senario?


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## beatle (9 March 2011)

Hi Atomic,

I like any scenario that provides some opportunity to have the market fully appreciate the totally undervalued situation that RED finds itself in at the moment. It doesn't mean that RED will get taken out at some discount as it will highlight to all what RED should be trading at now rather than its current discounted price. 
But for a takeover to be successful any takeover would have to be pitched at a reasonable premium to current price and frankly I can't see any astute insto currently holding stacks of stock wanting to depart the scene so quickly without getting full value. Thus any potential acquirer will find it hard to make a reasonable offer.

On the other side of it, most of the bigger acquirers will be looking way beyond Siana to have an interest - they wouldn't find Siana appealing as its too small for them, most have criteria of several million ounce resource/resource potential, and therefore until a few more positive results come out of Mapawa RED won't probably be that much of interest.

At the end of June we know that RED is due for a major re-rating as it gets into first gold production, so its not long to wait now anyway.


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## fastbuck1 (9 March 2011)

with the silver price really starting to take of it seams the market has'nt factored in that red could also earn $10 000 000 in silver in its first year of production.... 245800 oz silver @40=9 832 000 and is quite possible silver will be $50 on red's first pour and gold $1500 it should be a double wammy on the sp....i just carnt beleive red's current sp....
http://www.fatprophets.com.au/Membe...028eac834&product=Australasian Mining&pt=paid


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## Atomic (10 March 2011)

beatle said:


> Hi Atomic,
> 
> I like any scenario that provides some opportunity to have the market fully appreciate the totally undervalued situation that RED finds itself in at the moment. It doesn't mean that RED will get taken out at some discount as it will highlight to all what RED should be trading at now rather than its current discounted price.
> But for a takeover to be successful any takeover would have to be pitched at a reasonable premium to current price and frankly I can't see any astute insto currently holding stacks of stock wanting to depart the scene so quickly without getting full value. Thus any potential acquirer will find it hard to make a reasonable offer.
> ...




Ty Beatle , any takover will surely rerate red's sp lihir case in mind at present ,
I'll say never say never on the poss of a takeover


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## mgm1a (10 March 2011)

Atomic i think dreaming about NCM is a just that....their cap $29B..RED is a flea. Takeovers tend to happen of a size that is useful or where synergies, efficiencies or a blue sky can happen. I agree Beatle that RED only has Mapawa as an attractant over and above the obvious Siana assets and its NPV. 

The reason I found OGC MD comments intriguing Atomic was their cap. is of an order where RED might tempt but also the fact that they have a Phillipine project that is valued at zero and which has had troubled past....there may be value in having a local partner/subsidiary (RED) which by now has local credibility that could benefit a project such as Didipo.


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## beatle (10 March 2011)

I agree with your view Mgm1a, that Oceanagold is a good fit with RED, and as I have said so many times before, so is Medusa although I have been reminded a number of times by others that for some crazy reason MML simply would never consider RED! Let alone the relative proximity to the operations (within 150 kms of each other) and on a share for share basis MML would get a bargain IMO AS WELL AS enhance their total reserves/resources, increase/extend annual gold production, and take advantage of their huge premium to underlying NPV utilising a scrip for scrip offer! 

Fastbuck, do you know what Fat Prophets view of RED is currently - that previous report you reference is October 2010 so is now dated (and the share price was higher then!).


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## beatle (12 March 2011)

I believe RED coped pretty well with the perfect storm that confronted the market yesterday, and its interesting to know of Baker Steel moving up with another 20 plus million shares recently. Between the majors, Matthews, Baker Steel and JP Morgans we have a fairly strong group of shareholders, and surely that must comfort smaller holders that RED will make a more some time within the next couple of months once the skies clear and the mechano set is put together!


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## mgm1a (13 March 2011)

i was checking out MArdo's post on the other channel. From the still live substantial holder notices *the top 5 own 50.8% *

Mathews Capital Partners 17.7%
Bank of America 14.3%
Baker Steel 7.9%
JP Morgan 5.7%
Sprott Asset 5.2%

If the other top 20 haven't moved much (assumes they are either smart, in the know or stubbornly holding e.g. a beatle) since the annual report, then there may only be 20-25%% or 250-300m in free float


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## fastbuck1 (13 March 2011)

it would be interesting to know how many share holders there are holding 500 000 + shares , it seams the recent sell of has been caused by small holders as alot of trades have been for 20 000-30 000, being so close to first pour why would one bother of loading such small amounts?....Beatle i dont have the latest fatprofits report on red i  posted the last one to show the silver content that red will produce in its first year of production, it seams the market has'nt valued the 8-10 mil it will earn from silver in the first year.....


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## Hurricane (13 March 2011)

So how does the price move if everyone that is holding thinks they're onto a winner and is waiting for the price to go up? There's going to have to be some great announcements and/or some decent PR stuff from management and bigger shareholders.......


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## mardo (13 March 2011)

Hurricane said:


> So how does the price move if everyone that is holding thinks they're onto a winner and is waiting for the price to go up? There's going to have to be some great announcements and/or some decent PR stuff from management and bigger shareholders.......




HI Hurricane.. Red 5 is really a medium term stock.The price movement will come from them going into production(4? months away) and then as production is rammped up.The other prospect is drilling results from Mapawa but that appears to be on hold  due to rain delays & drill rod delays.In a further 12 months time this senario will have hopefully played out with  appropriate S.P. movement.


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## beatle (15 March 2011)

Hi Guys, and some great posts. I agree with your view Mardo, although i earlier had expected an explosion in its share price with the gold pour due in the next few months, sentiment has changed to one of caution. This is entirely due to the delays with the construction as a result of excessive rain on site, and now it seems that most investors will only believe it when it happens (as per Hurricane's post - those of such little faith, lol)! And accompanied with other international uncertainties, such as Libya, Japan (what else can happen I wonder!), there are simply too many issues outstanding for investors to fully back RED until the gold is in the vault - which gives anyone of greater faith another opportunity to slowly build up a good position without having to push the share price up excessively.

Thanks Fastbuck for your comments about the silver price etc, silver has been moving towards the level when Nelson Bunker Hunt tried to corner the entire silver market so many decades ago. But of course the gold alone is going to make RED a great investment in coming months - its indicated low PE will definitely push it above 40 cents if the gold price stays anywhere near its current level!

Mgm1a, I agree that I would be included in the "stubborn" category regarding investing in RED, but who would not be feeling the same having been in the stock for more than 14 years just to miss out as it actually does produce a stack of gold. That would absolutely kill me if I were to get out at this vital stage!!! Even if the gold price comes off I won't get out now!!!


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## auscan (16 March 2011)

Beatle .. 

based on the rain & "progress" photos in RED's last report, do you really believe a pour is only a few months away?

my guestimate is now more near the end of this year -- which probably is one of the reasons for the flat share price action. there is no rush to acquire this stock for quite some time

I've traded and held, but recently have sold to put my cash into more active stocks that have movement potential in a shorter time. Plenty of time to get back into RED imo.


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## beatle (16 March 2011)

Hi Auscan, good to hear from you. (And its good to see the share prices of most companies bounce back today, including RED).

Whilst I agree with you that the construction and commissioning is certainly delayed due to the extended and exceedingly high rainfall this wet season, (and that delay is confirmed by RED management as well), I believe that the time of the delay is mainly related to civils associated with concrete pours etc, as outlined in detail by geezuguys post of 6th-March-2011 01:28 AM. Thus it is likely that once the rain as stopped and the ground dried out (drying out takes only a couple of days) - and I have not checked lately as to whether this has already happened but it may well have - then we are back on track to pour foundations prior to carrying out the mechano set construction, once the foundations have cured. Noting always that significant offsite preparatory work has continued in Cebu and Manila where some of the equipment and electrical componentry is housed.

I have come round to Mardo's view that RED is more likely to move up in a slightly longer time period rather than the short term (that I had previously believed myself) due to the delays to date upsetting the shorter term investors expectations of rising share price. 

BUT I don't believe it will be end of this year at all for the share price move, I would expect it to happen around June/July as news from site filters through that the commissioning is due to happen - therefore anyone not exposed at that time is likely to be missing out on that once in a lifetime chance to enjoy a significant re-rating, in my view of course!!! 

BUT ALSO I agree with you that there are many good stories around at the moment and so RED is competing with those stories for investment/trading dollars - I have put some cash into some of those stories and expect a fairly large positive return from them in the meantime, and would like to be able to put more into RED at a later time in readiness for that move upwards - of course always subject to how gold is moving at that time, but my core RED investment remains in tact, and won't be moving at all till I have enjoyed that re-rating!


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## Buckfont (22 March 2011)

Hi Red members. This came my way yesterday. Never heard of this mob, Casimir Capital.

They are initiating coverage on Red with an overweight rating and a $0.27c price target. It`s 9 pages long so I won`t do much repetition here.

To quote:-

As a result of recent equity issuances the company has the capital to bring Siana into production Q3 2011.With $75 2mm in cash and no debt we believe Red5 has sufficient capital to bring Siana into production without the need to raise additional capital.

We believe Red5 will produce 34.4k oz of gold equivalent in 2011. We believe Red5 will produce 11k oz in the third Q 2011 and 23.4k oz during the fourth Q. We estimate its cash costs at US$635. per oz during Q4 2011.

We base our target price on Red5`s 5% discount rate NAV estimate of US$0.17c/diluted shares.Our NAV is based on various assumptions we made regarding the Companies operations, financing, and resource definition. We employ a  $950/oz gold price in our life of mine model. We have also factored in trading comparable metrics (firm value to resources and firm value to 2010E production) whe calculating our price target.

                           ------------------------------------------

This I believe is the fourth group initiating coverage on Red.


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## Rick64 (22 March 2011)

gday guys, what is going on? I have 80% of my p/f in RED due to my discovery of this site approx 12 months ago. I have kept buying on a fortnightly basis as my income allows, at the same time doing DD on where I am putting my hard earned. Unfortunately I have had to sell 30% of my holdings today as something came up but I feel no real remorse in doing so as I am not getting the great information and  enthusiasm that was previously displayed in this forum. To my regret I have recently found a lot more knowledge on another site. Please come back Beatle and Co and help a battler out!


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## Hurricane (22 March 2011)

I'm no Beatle but here goes:

"hang in there little buddy, just hold out a little bit longer, the [insert act of god here] is almost finished and I've spoken to [insert name of RED management here] and we'll be re-rated in a few months"


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## RADV (23 March 2011)

Hurricane said:


> I'm no Beatle but here goes:
> 
> "hang in there little buddy, just hold out a little bit longer, the [insert act of god here] is almost finished and I've spoken to [insert name of RED management here] and we'll be re-rated in a few months"




  That made my morning


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## beatle (30 March 2011)

Hi All (esp Rick64!).

Sorry I have been away on holidays the past week, and just got back onto this site this morning. I do want to make a few points re Rick64 comments:

Firstly, I'm sad to hear you had to sell some (30%) of your holding (assumedly at a loss), at this time when RED has gone to sleep. It sucks to think that RED, at a time when I personally had thought (going back some months now) it would fly due to its much anticipated pouring gold in April 2011, would be faltering along the bottom as April is just a couple of days away! But the weather has intervened and who could have predicted such a wet season event, of a magnitude that sounds like the Qld floods over again! 

I think the recent announcements by RED, regarding the expected appointment of Senior Staff and board members, plus the adjusted debt facility, and the Greg Edwards interview are all positive and should go some way to reassure all shareholders that FINALLY things will fall into place as they should have some months ago! 

I don't want to dwell on it but will make a simple statement here, that the variation to the debt facility does confirm my original thoughts and those of many other previous posters who were upset with the large capital raising. But thats now done and dusted.
It also probably confirms that RED are close to budget with the total capex on Siana development, and any additions, such as to provide a new and slightly bigger mill, and supplemental power plant are positive for the development. This should be reflected in higher throughput or at least more likelihood of achieving feasibility study goals. 

Although RED will probably linger a lot longer at around this current share price, until the market is convinced that the Siana plant is commissioned and in fact ready to pour gold, once that happens I can see the share price flying - but how high ALWAYS remains subject to how the gold price performs over coming months. From a P/E basis RED could easily move beyond 40 cents once the plant is bedded down the cash flows are confirmed, plus whatever might happen at Mapawa exploration. I do like GE's comments regarding the additional resource potential at Siana, and I personally would like RED proving the prospectivity of other large porphyry targets on the MPSA's, including the Siana MPSA around Madja. 

Rick64, IF its possible for you to hang in there until July I still stick by my original view that RED will at least double, but being greedy and very attached to my own investment in RED, I am unlikely to sell out until the real value of Siana starts to prove itself to the non-believers.

By the way, I have stopped posting so often, not as an indication of me losing interest or selling out, as I have retained my shares, but there is a limit to what can be said before RED puts those words of anticipation, into action! In the meantime I am also investing in some other small gold resource stocks to keep myself in touch with the market, but certainly my largest holding by a county mile remains RED and I will ADD MORE again once it gets closer to first gold pour day!


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## mgm1a (30 March 2011)

No comments from posters on what the recent ann Update on Financing means:

a.) $12m less funds for Mapawa exploration. The ann.made on 8-Oct.2010 talked of the "compelling" short term facility spelt out that $US20M would be "quarantined". So they have 20-8=12M less tagged for Mapawa

b.) Less dilution; 32m fewer shares that will to be issued

c.) The imprint of the instos are on this ann., it is the outcome of dissatisfaction votes at AGM and a swift volte-face on the prepay facility negotiated only 6 months ago.

d.) RED is now fully UNHEDGED - not sure thay this is such a good thing in the short term -1year but good beyond.

I thought the Interview was very positive - the underexplored panels in Siana hadn't been mentioned before in last 2 years since i have been on board but no doubt longer termers will be aware. 

RED5 present at Casimir conference MAy 2nd in New York (http://casimirconference.com/program) so hopefully more interest then


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## Buckfont (30 March 2011)

Hi mgm1a, funny how I never got a bite when on my post above on the 22nd as to the report from Casimir there was no bite till now.. Nice to see you picked up on it. As I said up to the time of posting I had never heard of this company. Thanks for the further info.


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## mgm1a (30 March 2011)

buckfont - i presume you knew they were involved in the share placement Nov2010? along with Petra & Southern Cross? I looked into their report in depth; their numbers somewhat similar to mine but very bearish by using lowish POG for project ? but bullish in their comments about the panels in Siana being under-explored.


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## Buckfont (31 March 2011)

Hi mgm1a, I was aware of Petra`s and Southern X`s involvement but not Casimir`s.


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## beatle (4 April 2011)

RED continues within its current range of 16 - 17 cents (ho-hummm) and its very frustrating for all to watch that happen whilst the general market has improved in the past weeks. But obviously its in this holding pattern until news finally comes through that the commissioning is imminent, at which time I would imagine there will be a rush to get more shares. How long it take for that news to get out is anyone's guess, but IMO likely to be in late June, with first gold pour in mid-July. 

(Whilst waiting for this to happen with RED I have got more involved in a few other specs (eg refer the ATN thread) - far more speccy (ie riskier) than RED, but with potential to triple or more in price within the next few months - that's the only issue with RED, the "opportunity cost" of holding RED at the moment, while I will never sell a single share in RED now, I will probably buy shares at an appropriate time, from the profits of my other speccy investments down the track!).


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## mgm1a (4 April 2011)

Reluctantly doing same beatle....bought more RED today (sigh) with the profit from a double with NRL (within 30 days!), wish i could say same for RED...it just has to go up or be taken out.


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## beatle (5 April 2011)

Hi Mgm1a, its a shame that RED hasn't been able to make some positive statements about its exploration whilst we wait for the rain to stop (lol), but thats the problem with having all its eggs in the one basket I guess (ie all its activities within the same couple of MPSA's). As I mentioned earlier I won't sell my shares in RED, regardless of the opportunity cost, as for sure the day I sell them for a short time they will begin the move up! I hope that the lack of news hasn't forced out some of our longer term posters such as Anderbond, Fatsoh, Fastbuck, Councilgritter, from holding! They've been quiet, like us all, in recent times.

Maybe the announcements of a new director or whatever might get the market revved up a bit, presumably that is about to be announced soon! Of course that also depends upon the profile of that person and what his involvement will be (preferably someone who has done it all before and has some weight in the industry).


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## hugh_jarzz (5 April 2011)

Still an exceptionally bored holder, Beatle. I have reduced my holding, only because there is so much else out there in "resource" land which was simply passing me by. The way it seems to me is that I'll be able to re-purchase at around current levels in a couple of months anyway! Like MGM, I have had a couple of multi-baggers over the last few months. A comment which struck a chord with me was that RED have been "starved of the oxygen of publicity" due to their propensity to use unknowns such as Petra then Casimir as Lead Managers in their last 2 raisings....RED just don't get the attention from the broader Australian investing public which one would think their prospects would warrant. Anyway, back to hibernation!


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## mardo (5 April 2011)

Hi Hugh,
I agree with your comments and the bordem bug that Red is in before the plant build is underway again. I doubt you will get a better time to top up than now.The big pay off will hopefully come at the Casimir Capital conference in New York on 2nd May and we will all see if if they really do expand the shareholder base at that time !


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## beatle (5 April 2011)

Hi Hugh_Jarzz/Mardo, good to see you both watching RED with an interest to consider some more shares later on - it seems we are all of the same opinion, that RED is a great BUY, but later on and not now!!! But I'm simply too attached to my RED shares (and probably its more about being too scared now!!!) to sell down as it would be just my luck to have held RED all these years then watch them make that move we all anticipate!

I wonder if May is still a bit too soon, since whilst that conference is a great chance for PR and talk, the issue with RED is actually completing the work, and until the work on the ground is really close to completion (or completed!) no one wants to take a chance! I don't plan to buy any more RED until much later on than May, probably mid-June, once I am satisfied that its about to commence commissioning of the plant - but having got a lot already I am not so fussed if I miss out on a lot more.

Also, I do take Hugh_Jarzz point to heart, as RED has limited following within the Australian broking groups of note. It seems us posters have had to try to carry the load for RED in past years when it should have been the mining analysts in broking firms do it for us shareholders! I do recall a few years ago that Pan Aust and RED were being compared, as they both were trying to raise funds for their developments, for offshore projects, and they went in completely different directions to go about that capital raising and subsequent events, and which of those companies has made it big time? - PNA market cap of $2.4 billion, RED market cap $0.2 billion! IF I HAD ONLY KNOWN AT THAT TIME, LOL


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## Rick64 (5 April 2011)

Beatle I am disappointed to note that your sentiment seems to have changed somewhat over the past 6 months that I have held RED. Dont get me wrong mate as I am a newbie but I must admit that the enthusiasm shown in this forum for RED was one of the deciding factors in my original purchase. Good to see a little upturn in share price today I am only down 13% now lol!


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## beatle (6 April 2011)

Hi Rick64, and good to know you are still hanging in there.

Just to put my sentiment in perspective for you: I have held RED shares for more than 14 years now, and I can see the finishing line to the development at Siana. But its like the donkey and the carrot (and I AM THE DONKEY, hee haw!), the finishing line keeps moving out! 

I AM a believer in RED, and I believe that there are so many other small shareholders who are believers now, AS WELL AS the BIG INSTOS such as Matthews, JP Morgans, Baker Steel. 

With these last few hurdles to cross, aided by rain of a magnitude unprecedented in recent years around Siana, its allowed the momentum of trading to slacken, and for the bigger instos to take control of the sharetrading supported by BOTS. And in the meantime the PR has not been apparent to us retail investors, its probably been directed to the instos. 

I am the first to agree that I was vehemently opposed to the huge capital raising undertaken by RED, but the company got themselves in a corner such that we were effectively forced to approve the transaction to ensure the project was sufficiently funded. The fact that RED has now changed the terms of the recent debt facility confirms to us all that RED got it wrong with the size of that capital raising! 

But those issues are now behind us, we are all waiting for the rain to stop and for the plant to be built. I have no doubt that within the next couple of months your 13% reduction in share value will have vanished, and RED will move towards its fundamental value somewhere in the 30's cents range. I'm just not sure when the rain will stop (and the reins will be released to the share price!).

AND to boot we have a record gold price (in US dollars of course).


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## mgm1a (6 April 2011)

the bots have been entering later in the day recently but today have been turned off, net result only 7 trades. We may now get a truer reflection of underlying state of the shareholder register i.e. more holders hanging for longer term. Upwards.


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## anderbond (7 April 2011)

Hi Guys, I am still around and still holding. Although I have not been a holder for as long as Beatle, I have been involved for a good few years now. I remain totally convinced that RED will really fly in due course. It has been a frustrating period over last few months, but our day WILL come! Interesting discussion with another investor yesterday in relation to the number of mining projects in the southern part of Mindanao that have run into bother with local community actions. Basically, it seems it is the corruption thing again with some local community leaders looking for further "commission" or otherwise trouble is stirred up. As far as I am aware, GE has got full community support at least in the local area, and it tends to reinforce the value of the community improvement projects  carried out by GE over many years. There is nothing like having great local knowledge and knowing the way the system works best in the Phils imo.
This support encompasses the NPA as well as I understand it. The new board member should be announced soon, which might help things along too. Unfortunately the program traders have been active enough to stifle SP growth, but hopefully this will cease. My new wife still wants her shopping spree at Green Belt but she will have to wait like the rest of us lol.  AB


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## beatle (7 April 2011)

Hi AB, great to see a post from you, and is it ominous? (did you just take out 1.3 million shares at 18 cents, lol?). Again I may have missed the mark with my view as to the turnaround date, but gee I would love to be wrong with RED this time!

I would like to support your comment made re GE and his highly favourable influence with the local community, and in fact his whole attitude to RED doing business in the Phils. I would have no hesitation in presuming that he leads the foreigners involved in the mining industry in Phils in acting in a very positive community minded manner which is now resulting in RED enjoying a positive relationship with all stakeholders concerned. I have been onsite a few times, and in all my observations, either with him or without him present, all concerned have only good words to say about him! And it shows in how he has got all involved, whether it be those directly involved in the Siana/Mapawa operations, or those benefitting through RED's Phils initiatives led by GE.

I would like to suggest that RED has a unique positive relationship with the local community that is unlikely to be challenged even by some of the current miners!

And lastly AB, you better get prepared for that shopping spree in Greenbelt! lol!!!


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## Rick64 (7 April 2011)

two buyers just came in at 18.5c for a total of 3 000 000 shares. Maybe news coming?


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## adobee (7 April 2011)

RED was listed as a buy recommendation in the Wilson HTM Quarterly Commodities Price review.. a copy of it is available here -


http://www.hillgroveresources.com.au/downloads/media-broker/110125 Wilsons HTM CommPrice_Update.pdf


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## beatle (7 April 2011)

Most appreciative of your post Adobee, and it looks like we are ready to break out, with a move up to 19 cents which is lightly offered! Go RED...


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## fastbuck1 (7 April 2011)

Hi Beatle and others i havn't sold out was just board like other red holders and have been watching on the side lines but today was a heads up as we see a bit of sp action, good to see gold price strong and now looks like red will have a gold price of $1500 on its first pour and don't forget silver, i beleive there will be a frenzy on gold shares very soon any stock that has a gold lease will be a multi bagger, with the frenzy no one will want to miss out red could could hit $1.50 or more  the trick will be not to sell out to early.


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## Moit (7 April 2011)

Hi all RED club members. Its certainly been a while. How are we all traveling? Its great to see the majority of us are still in the picture. Hows Beatle and AB?
Although i have not increased my holdings, i still have not sold a single share. On the other hand my father has virtually doubled his holdings since the last time i spoke. Just means a few less shares being thrown around on market and being held ever so tightly by a long termer..
I think we have all been a little quiet, just sitting back waiting very patiently for that special day to arrive. It can certainly be a frustrating wait. I'm sure RED management are feeling just as frustrated with the rains in the Phills. Lets just hope in the very near future the heavens dry up and RED gets the break it needs and the green light to kick this project off the ground..
Adobee great to see your post. Interesting we see another buy recommendation on RED. It would be nice to see that gold price increase 25% to $2000 an oz in 2012. Should make RED an extremely profitable company only costing $351 to extract.
Today was a better day. lets hope it is the start of something magic in regards to RED. Go RED GO !!!


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## beatle (8 April 2011)

Hi Moit and Fastbuck, its great to see your posts too - and it seems we have all been suffering the same problem (boredom with RED share price). But once a sharholder in RED its hard to stop being affected by the expectation of a major jump up sooner or later!
As with all I was most excited to see the share price start to move (and thats why I won't be selling my shares because if you sell out you will get caught out one day!), and I assumed that Adobee's pointing to the Wilson's further recommendation of RED. Until I read on that other website that the Wilson recommendation was dated Jan 26 2011!!! Then I checked and sure enough, its a dated recommendation that we have all seen before - oh I must be getting old, not noticing that date!

But the fact is that RED DID move up yesterday, for whatever reason, and maybe its got some legs in it now. IF it drops back, then it just goes to show those (im)patient holders (I have been IM and frustrated for a while now!) that you can't afford to drop shares otherwise you might regret it once it does move upwards, and surely its got a long way to go to be where it should be based just on Siana development.


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## fastbuck1 (9 April 2011)

Beatle whats the chance of red pre selling gold at $1500 and looks like $1500 will be seen next week, its a chance to lock in big profits?


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## beatle (9 April 2011)

Hi Fastbuck, great to hear from you again!

As for gold selling forward, I have had a number of conversations about that with some of the directors over the past years, and seems to me the majority remain in favour of keeping their options open, the only time they relented was when it was related to the debt facility with the gold pre-pay but that was a particular arrangement for funding and it didn't eventuate in the end.
As for the current gold price (which is at its all-time high now) in US dollars, well you will know that the aussie is also at its all-time high post float - the strength of the aussie has actually affected the aussie gold price more so, thus we are not at the all-time aussie gold price - I refer you to the following chart:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=1Y

Therefore whilst the capex contracts benefit RED when in US $ and the US$ components of the operating cost, it is not really a help on the revenue side whilst the aussie keeps moving up. And naturally it tends to be a sympathetic relationship between US gold price and the aussie currency, so that when the gold price comes off then the aussie is likely to come off too (that affects gives us some benefits if the gold price comes off and the aussie comes off at a faster rate, even though the general market doesn't seem to appreciate it!).

Whilst the gold price is unlikely to sustain this run for the next months I have now changed my stance on the hedging slightly, due to the strength of the aussie dollar. who would believe that the aussie dollar could move to this level, particularly as most of the australian economy is not real healthy! (Thank goodness for our miners, and the Fed Govt want to tax them more despite the flow on to the rest of the economy, crazy!).


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## Rick64 (12 April 2011)

RED holding up pretty well so far today considering the the carnage in the rest of the market


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## Rick64 (14 April 2011)

morning guys,
Sag mill has been poured and crusher will be poured within next 2 weeks. dragged this from another site.


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## Rick64 (14 April 2011)

http://www.theage.com.au/business/philippine-rainbow-eludes-gold-investors-20110413-1de53.html


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## mgm1a (14 April 2011)

Great reading 1 page http://www.dailywealth.com/1698/The-Government-Is-Lying-to-You-About-Gold

and it links to this from Sprott our top 5 holder will astound on demand for gold & silver
http://www.sprott.com/Main1.aspx?id=297

Hang tight


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## Hurricane (15 April 2011)

That Sprott article was great! Not just for RED's gold reserve but also it's SLV reserve which doesn't get much of a mention. I wonder if they'll come across some more through their exploration activities??


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## beatle (15 April 2011)

Hi Mgm1a, a great post and most informative with Sprotts presentation of 24th January. We have therefore a strong positive substantial shareholder in Sprott, and hopefully a very positive outlook for gold, and WITHIN the next few months RED commencing production of GOLD!!! When the third variable aligns, then RED should be finally away! (Or will it be before actual production begins?).

(Are you still in ATN?)


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## beatle (17 April 2011)

Is it an omen? 

I was walking in the city yesterday morning, and noticed a girl with a red t'shirt on, with the caption:

I'm INSPI (RED)!



Gold's up, silver's up, dows up, RED . . . .


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## fastbuck1 (17 April 2011)

never wear a red tea shirt into bunning's....


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## jancha (18 April 2011)

beatle said:


> Is it an omen?
> 
> I was walking in the city yesterday morning, and noticed a girl with a red t'shirt on, with the caption:
> 
> ...




But RED's down!!!!
Soon as Red makes a move up....down she goes with some big sells. 
You'd think that it would be moving up with the price of gold & their cost of producing at a low cost. How far away is that now?


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## beatle (19 April 2011)

I agree with you Jancha, its got me beat as to the sentiment, BUT for sure once the plant is built and the commissioning is about done you can bet your bottom dollar it won't be sitting at the current price. Thus we all have a chance to top up again in the next couple of months, and subject to timing (and the price of gold at the time) we could make a quick buck (or dare I say a fastbuck, lol!) - unlike my current investment in RED which is on the slow boat to China!).


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## geezuguys (19 April 2011)

beatle said:


> I agree with you Jancha, its got me beat as to the sentiment, BUT for sure once the plant is built and the commissioning is about done you can bet your bottom dollar it won't be sitting at the current price. Thus we all have a chance to top up again in the next couple of months, and subject to timing (and the price of gold at the time) we could make a quick buck (or dare I say a fastbuck, lol!) - unlike my current investment in RED which is on the slow boat to China!).





As bewildering as it is - human nature is predictable, but frustrating all the same.  Bottom line is... it doesn't matter what the price does in the meantime, we have a gold miner with a significant proven resource (and exciting reserves) about to produce at very low cost at a time when gold is breaking records.  Sooner or later the pendulum will swing... up!

All we need is the pieces of the puzzle to come together (and they will!).  The concrete will soon be cured and the meccano set bolted together.  Interesting to note, the contractor (Delta) has been busily excavating when possible whilst we have all been waiting for the weather to change, so there'll be plenty of tonnage to process through the mill as soon as its operational.

Mgm the Sprott clip was excellent.  Also some great reading on their site - "Debunking the Gold Bubble Myth" in Feb 2011 is well worth a look.

I'm chock full (i.e. cash spent) of Red already, otherwise I would be stacking more away at these prices.  Behind the scenes things are moving now!


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## anderbond (20 April 2011)

Hi Guys, Thought I would throw in a few thoughts for you to consider:
1. Despite record price of gold(and silver), at present there is a global phenomenon of underperformance of precious metal shares. While this will obviously change at some stage, it is causing a number of theories as to why. Sprott has said that precious metal stock prices are being manipulated as well as the physical prices which they believe should be higher. The US Debt downgrade may be the catalyst to reverse this and push physical prices much higher, which will inevitably lead to a rerating with stock prices at some point. 
2. On HC, there are traders boasting about having sold at the most recent highs and buying back at lower prices. The history of RED seems to support that it doesn't take much to push the price down, especially as volumes are generally fairly thin. This might explain some of the recent weakness in the RED SP.
3. There is a certain amount of "tiredness" with RED. There is no doubt that management is very very conservative, and while imo this is a good thing, the simple fact is that RED has made a number of announcements (eg on the financing) that have later not proceeded.
Progress on a number of fronts has appeared to be very slow, and must inevitably lead to frustrations by investors large and small. A recent report suggested management has been "faffing about" which was attributed to an institutional investor, so hopefully this has already been taken on board. There is some history of "faffing about" it appears. Of course, the extreme rainfall has not helped at all.
Like others, I am totally convinced RED's day in the sun WILL arrive, and the SP WILL deliver. Happy Easter to all RED holders. AB


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## beatle (20 April 2011)

anderbond said:


> ...On HC, there are traders boasting about having sold at the most recent highs and buying back at lower prices. The history of RED seems to support that it doesn't take much to push the price down, especially as volumes are generally fairly thin. This might explain some of the recent weakness in the RED SP.
> ...A recent report suggested management has been "faffing about" which was attributed to an institutional investor, so hopefully this has already been taken on board. There is some history of "faffing about" it appears. Of course, the extreme rainfall has not helped at all.




Hi Anderbond, great to see your post.

I suggest that those boasting selling at recent highs and getting back in at lows are fortunate, and I for one will NEVER take the risk of predicting another cycle or 2 in RED as for sure the one time you (I) do it will be the one time that it never comes back, lol! I believe the better strategy, if you have more cash, is to slowly buy more on the dips - but in my own situation, having been up to the eyeballs in RED for a while now, I won't do that until I have liquidated some other shares which are providing a slightly better return for me at present (but as AB states, RED's time in the sun WILL come!).

With regard to the faffing about, I'm of the view now that once the project is bedded down, there will be some changes to the board, with the combined effects of the insto's forcing change and the fact that the project has finally been delivered will be a sensible time for those concerned to call it a day! And once that occurs I can see RED move even higher, not withstanding that its going to move in the first instance as the project delivery becomes well known. I think we are still about 6 - 8 weeks from the price turnaround, but of course I could be wrong (I admit I've been wrong on the share price for quite a while now, lol!).

Have a good Easter AB and all.


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## mgm1a (20 April 2011)

OK you gals seem to see this as more ho hum than me....or maybe i'm becoming too microscopic in my vision.......

Can't overlook the rain but THREE blue skys heavily hinted at - 
1.) more Siana at high grade will be drilled, 

2.) Mapawa; "review of all data with respect to...zinc" (odd statement to make for a gold company so there must be value there), and 

3.) Alegria-Madja area with anomalies of 1km in diameter! ..now that is only SIX km away from Siana, a mine with a JORC of 4.3g/t. We are talking spitting distance from a near producer in a region that has had fabulous gold history ..and not some desert area in the back of beyond. This is in the zone, folks.

Subtantial Shareholders; I missed that Lujeta had kept their stake at 5.1% so had been participating in the cap raisings by adding 15m shares. Then i missed Bank of America not listed as substantial shareholder in this report or the last - their "stake" seems to tied in as a nominee for others..haven't cracked understanding it. Still Top 5 holding 41.9% aint shabby and many major holders under that.

The Cashflow Report; usually posted at same time - i suspect they don't want to highlight the break-fee with Sprott's and want the Activities to be more prominent and gain market attention.
I will be keenly awaiting as it should stick out like the proverbial in the Financing section with no chance to hide it!

I can see from your comments Anderbond re faffin about and beatles re the board changes likely in future that it ties in with dissent votes at the EGM that still hasn't come out. Being a conservative company, having a great undervalued asset and future blue-sky, makes for a solid invetsment and a solid prospect for M&A


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## mgm1a (20 April 2011)

Cashflow Rpt now out...break fee to Sprotts $3.9M ...grrr.. cost of doing business


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## beatle (21 April 2011)

mgm1a said:


> "OK you gals seem to see this"




(Hi Mgm1a, I presume you meant that line to be directed at some of the nice folk on that other website - beatle ain't no girl, and since AB has referred to being recently married I'd assume AB's a he too, lol).

I agree entirely with your comments Mgm1a regarding the drilling now planned for the Siana MPSA and closer to the pit. Its actually what I have been hoping RED would do for some time now, especially knowing that they in fact have lots of potential for porphyry related mineralisation not just at Madja but in other close by localities - if you recall it, they did do some preliminary geophysics and geochem work in parts of that area which were very promising, but they had no spare cash at that time (it was some years ago now) and therefore stopped short of doing the investigative work (including drilling) that it deserves. Any success in the short term there could completely change the investors view to RED as being a 1 mine project, apart from the fact that Mapawa should finally prove it will become another mining project to be developed. 

And the drilling at the pit will heighten the expectation of some reserves upgrades, with higher grade ore, in the months that follow the mine opening IMO.

The comment about the zinc relates more to the relationship it tends to have in these porphyry alteration systems than its economics - it means they are probably some distance from the core of the system, which in itself provides an indication that the core might be considerable (although it might also be a bit deeper than we had hoped - but with economic grades at much shallower levels then its an easier development than say Boyongan up the road).

As to your comment about the cashflow report, its an interesting comment, but maybe its more related to wanting to get the news out sooner (and so they can sleep well over Easter), and the accountants have to do the rest with the cashflows etc once all the numbers come in. But you could be correct.

RED WILL deliver IMO!


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## mardo (28 April 2011)

Lets hope this is a new start for RED with no one willing to give shares away at these prices.Remember Monday 2nd May is the Casimir Capital presentation in New York so we may get updated with progress report then.


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## fastbuck1 (29 April 2011)

Hi Beatle, whats your take on the current red sp, have looked at alot of other goldies and   there also getting kicked down, its hard to swallow with the gold price going gang busters and we have a gold company that will be pouring gold in the next few months, by the charts we are now in a comfirmed down trend, would it be a brave to throw more money at it or foolish, i keep thinking of the gfc when red hit the .03s, somehow i feel were entering gfc phase 2.........hope i'm wrong....regards fastbuck.


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## beatle (30 April 2011)

Hi Fastbuck, an interesting question that I think most are also asking at the moment (including me!), but of course you are actually asking it about the whole market, not just for RED or even the broader gold market, it seems to be a real issue for the entire aussie market. And since you asked the question gold has gone even higher, something you could hardly think about, and last night's rise was huge, PLUS the Dow went up to boot!

I do feel unnerved about how our aussie market is behaving, and with RED it irks me that we still remain in the doldrums and range bound. But you won't believe it, I made a decision a few days ago that its about time to fill up with a few more, and I bought some at 16.5 cents, just BEFORE it went south!!! Then when it got to 15.5 cents (on the way up from 15.0 cents) I got some more!. While I'm not suggesting that its the right decision as the market is scary at the moment, my decision is based entirely on an assumption that RED WILL produce first gold either July/Aug or Sept, and that the broader markets won't kark it in the next couple of days/weeks/months (and gold stays above US$1,000/oz).

I have no doubt that we will look back and consider the current RED share price was a cheap entry when it begins producing gold, building up to an annual rate of 100,000 ozs, in the following 4-6 months.

Mardo also makes a good point that I'm mindful of, that there are some interesting weeks ahead when RED management will be giving some presentations both in the US and I believe in Hong Kong to some big instos.


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## fastbuck1 (1 May 2011)

Beatle just been doing alittle reasearch it seams BOA has sold out alot of its gold stock positions all at once  wonder what gives?? do they know something?? just seams strange with all  ann made on the 29th......


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## beatle (3 May 2011)

Hi Fastbuck, I presume you have been following the threads on that other website with reference to a number of small gold explorers/miners affected by Bank Of America change of substantial shareholdings. Whilst I don't know (or even understand) the arrangements that may have been set up between BOA and the other parties that are the true beneficial holders of RED shares that seems to have put up RED shares as collateral to BOA for its share trading activities (in RED plus so many other stocks on the ASX), it does appear that the arrangement has been terminated on 29 April.

What the fallout of that is yet to be understood by me, but clearly there seems to be a weakening in RED trading, probably as a consequence of that action, and I must admit seeing RED down at 13.5 cents momentarily for me this morning is more than unnerving! I really can't understand how it can trade at that level, and i am only comforted by the fact that in a few months time RED will be producing gold at substantial profits! Like all of you out there I am following the trading activity very closely, and it probably is presenting as a real buying opportunity, but having got into the market last week at 16.5 cents makes me cringe when I see it today!


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## Moit (3 May 2011)

Hi Guys. 
Its been a fairly disappointing couple of weeks. Can anyone explain what is happening to the Aussie market, compared to the rest of the world. I'm assuming with America that theres no money in fixing your cash, therefore they are still putting there money into safer options like the share market. In Australia I'm guessing they are doing the opposite. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
As for RED Beatle, I'm sorry to here you had bought some more at the 16 cent mark. But I'm sure you will see that blue sky in the coming months like you say, and like we all believe. Hopefully its not a GFC phase two Fastbuck1. We certainly don't need that. With a bit of luck it is just another buying opportunity. I'm hoping to get in real soon...
And the 10.7 mill shares cross traded at 4.15 this afternoon is also a bit of a bother. I'm hoping none of our other major instos have lost faith as well.. C'mon RED


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## Buckfont (3 May 2011)

I bought another 50000 today despite being a bit behind the 8 ball. All goldies have been performing unusually ordinary over the last day or two. IAU, IGR, RRL, NCM, etc

I still believe that any co, coming into production will have their day in the sun. All the above mentioned plus many others have taken a beating. And as long as the geopolitical and dodgy monetary stuff keeps on, precious metals can only go one way, hiccups taken into account.


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## mgm1a (3 May 2011)

Good for you buckfont, I also feeling nervous about the SP ! but lest we forget their 2009 BFS used $US800oz (can't find AU/USD)
My Dec 2010 NPV used $1300 & 0.96 AUD/USD
May 2011 NPV $1500 & 1.09 will still give me the same answer ! 

RED's EV is only about $40m above the $139m book value of hard assets & accum project development costs. Nuts! if mgmt deliver


Beatle - i can't figure out whether BoA is the lender or the borrower with all their notices!
There was a swag of Notices for a raft of companies on Friday because ASIC granted a (free ride) Class Order CO 11/272 which lets stock lenders NOT disclose their holding on the basis they have lent it out!. The exemption is from the new ASIC guidance on disclosure found at :

http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.ns...isclosure for securities lending?opendocument

It all too heavy for me......


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## Buckfont (3 May 2011)

mgm1a said:


> Good for you buckfont, I also feeling nervous about the SP ! but lest we forget their 2009 BFS used $US800oz (can't find AU/USD)
> My Dec 2010 NPV used $1300 & 0.96 AUD/USD
> May 2011 NPV $1500 & 1.09 will still give me the same answer !
> 
> ...




It is heavy and I wont say I`m going nuts but what the squirrel does at the approach of winter, he will look after himself and his `family`with those nuts and make sure he has the wherewithal  to protect his collection over the bleak periods that will follow. And as long as night follows day springtime always comes


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## beatle (4 May 2011)

Hi Mgm1a, I congratulate you for your post (on another forum) that checks out the gold stocks being affected by this "apparent virus" of having been stung by BOA etal. As to your comment about whether BOA is the lender or the borrower, I am of the view that BOA is the lender, and I've got a feeling that it lent out cash to Matthews for their investment purposes (not necessarily for just, or any, RED share purchases). I wonder if it relates to BOA declaring its "theoretical ownership" by way of its collateral in RED shares, and maybe those collateral arrangements have now ended, not sure for what reason though. Certainly there has not been anywhere like the volume of shares traded that could enable a ceasing share ownership within the period by BOA unless it was simply a lending position!

As to your comments about RED at the time of the Base Case Study, as you correctly point out it was at US$800 for the financial analysis, but no A$ was given in that study that I am aware of, as it related to the US$ NPV only. By checking historic A$ moves at the time of the July 2009 release I think that 80 cents conversion is the appropriate exchange rate to relate it back to A$ equivalent (I haven't kept my old cash flow models used at that time as I have just changed the dollar exchange rate as time has gone by), but if we do assume it was 80 cents exchange rate versus $1.10 that we see today (close enough to, of course) we can see that the old financial analysis is severely less attractive compared to its current value:
$800 and 80 cents = A$1,000
$1,540 and $1.10 = A$1,400, ie 40% higher A$ value of gold!

I really can't see RED staying down at this level for much longer as I have no reason to doubt that gold will be poured, in considerable quantities from around August. Thats got nothing to do with the trading antics that are currently being played out, and unlike Yuyu's comment of there being no gold, THERE are tonnes of gold, and RED will get it out in due course!!!


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## mgm1a (5 May 2011)

The daily weather /rainfall reading for April for Surigao (close-ish) have been posted & shows more rain-less days and much less rain than previosu months. Hooray


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## anderbond (5 May 2011)

Hi Guys, Good to see you are all so much on the ball with RED. I have been forced to sell 150,000 @ 15c (late last week)in order to raise a little money to cover Stamp Duty on a property purchase I have made recently. I was spitting chips at being forced to sell at this price as in my early planning I was expecting that by now RED would be somewhere north of 20c. I was staggered to see the price head down below the 15c and is still below as I write. I am hoping to buy them back upon receipt of some other funds expected. I would find it ironic if I manage to buy them back and effectively end up with a profit on the transaction. I am not particularly happy even if this does occur as I am still of the opinion that the SP is being played with and just hope that eventually the "players" get severely burned for their efforts. The report published a couple of days ago does not add anything new, but reaffirms where things stand, and that they will recommence drilling at Siana soon. Maybe if some positive reporting comes from this, it will push the SP up somewhere to where it should be. The new missus has decided to go to Japan for the month of June, so I am off the hook (for the moment) with the Grrenbelt excursion. Keep smiling everyone. AB


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## mgm1a (5 May 2011)

anderbond we are all staggering.

I did some delving having been alerted on the other channel that teh RED website is updated with photos and the Top 10 shareholders.
Big movements - Deutsche Bank has disappered but may be in nominees. 

JP Morgan appear to have purchased 84m since their Notice of Initial Substantial Holding in Nov'10, but haven't file a Change notice. 

If that is right (presuming the increase isn't for other holder with them as nominees) then that *represents a 12% holding* and places them in number 3 behind Mathews and BoA


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## beatle (6 May 2011)

Some most interesting delving Mgm1a re JP Morgans increased shareholding! 

Just in following up with our previous discussions re BOA and its apparent ceasing to be a substantial shareholder, I made a few more inquiries, and whilst its not 100% certain as no one will make a definitive statement on BOA's situation for obvious reasons, it appears that ASIC have given relief to certain financial institutions (in this case BOA) from having to file substantial shareholding notices where they hold stock on behalf of the actual shareholder (in this case likely to be Matthews) as some form of financial arrangement (which relates to that class action comment in the substantial shareholder notice of 29 April). And thats the reason why all those notices occurred for BOA on 29 April, for all those stocks, including RED. (Maybe this conclusion has been reached by someone else on another website, but I am simply too tired tonight to check whether that's the case!).

I suggest that this forced "panic" may have been a very successful coup (or con!) by someone wanting to get more stock cheaply!!! And it worked, to all our disgust!

Anderbond, I understand the problem that you face, and hope that you are able to maintain the rest of your shares, I would hate missing out on catching up with you at the time of the mine opening ceremony! In fact I couldn't control myself, and have got another 350,000 shares in the past couple of days (and my missus is not in japan, lol!) - I don't like the way gold is moving tonight, but when you translate it with the also falling aussie dollar, the A$ gold price remains robust (but marginally down off its highs)!


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## beatle (10 May 2011)

An exciting announcement this morning, with a number of different aspects being completed or underway:
1. Concrete pours to SAG and crusher/ROM pad area;
2. SAG mill, standby generators, plus crane being shipped to site;
3. Open pit water level dropping rapidly;
4. Senior management positions filled;
5. Depository receipts in process of being arranged for trading in USA to increase shareholder reach.

All very positive undertakings and its reflected in the share price movement plus increase in volume (even taking out the crossing before market of 85.7 million shares).

Go RED Go (UP!!!)


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## Moit (11 May 2011)

Hi all RED club members...
It was a rather exciting announcement yesterday regarding construction phases at the Siana mine. Those pictures say a thousand words. Looking at how far they have progressed in a month or so, with the leach tanks, sag mill foundations and frame work for retaining walls and so on. I'm taking my hat off to Red management. They are obviously not mucking around now that the rain has virtually gone. In fact I'm starting to feel pretty proud to be part of it all...
Not long now guys...
I was a little curious as to why the market didn't react more positive yesterday, though it did hit 15.5 cents, just bounced back late in trading. Market sentiments are pointing toward a great day today. Lets hope Red can regain a bit of yesterdays mornings flurry, but stay there this time.
Beatle, i was reading your post a couple of days ago and noticed you had purchased another 350 000.( WOW...) Well I'm also taking my hat off to you mate. If i could do it, i would as well. Instead ill just settle for the mere 50 000 Ive recently bought. lol
Lets go RED, start warming to your new surroundings...


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## beatle (11 May 2011)

Hi Moit, I agree with you that the announcement is actually a very positive sign, and I really can't understand also why it didn't go higher (and who do you think bought the shares at 15.5 cents - 200,000 of those bought were mine, lol - but I KNOW its going up, I just don't understand why its not on the way up now!).

As for the trading yesterday, I firmly believe someone is still playing with us, trying to put a lid on a significant move upwards - no one can tell me that RED, with a current market cap of around A$180 million and indicated net profits from gold reserve sales in coming years of more than double that isn't a huge anomaly that simply won't last! My view is that RED won't continue at this low price in a couple of months when the pics we see are of a completed plant and water in the pit is gone, and haul trucks are being filled within the pit area!

I don't believe JP Morgan, Matthews, Baker Steel etc have finished with their investing in RED.

IN MY OPINION THIS IS THE LAST CHANCE TO SET YOURSELF BEFORE THE BIG MOVE UP, it might take another month or so, but then its gonna be as Carol King sang (a few years ago, lol) - Its Too Late Baby!!!


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## Moit (12 May 2011)

Hi all RED club members, hi Beatle.
Beatle, you are quite right in what you say in regards to acquiring those last chance shares. I firmly believe this is it. What i don't understand is why people are still selling. I don't think they are going to get them at a cheaper price of where it currently stands. As for your 200k purchase at 15.5 cents Beatle. There will come a time in the very near future where we will look back and say how lucky we were to pick up shares at that price.
What i am curious about Beatle is that sweet success story of MML. I know that RED has been compared to Medusa for quite some time now. Being just up the road helps a tad as well. I realize it has been a hot topic for a while now on the RED thread and i am doing a lot of research to find for myself.  I just cant get my head around the fact that MML went from 37 cents to 8 dollars in two and a half years. Can you shed some light on the similarities between the two?? And maybe where MML was at the stage RED is at now. Can RED be the next Medusa Mining?? Cheers, Moit


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## geezuguys (13 May 2011)

Hi Moit, you pose an interesting point re MML and I for one know nothing about the fundamentals of the company.  I have done some quick numbers though to help compare MML with RED which might assist.

Current MML SP is $7.90.  Forecast EPS is 54.7 cps for 2011 F/Yr and 62.0 cps for 2012 (N.B. CommSec research).  Shares on issue are approx 188,227,848 which gives a market cap of Approx $1,487 million.  This means earnings are projected to be $102,960,633 for 2011. Its forward PE ratio is 14.44 which is right on sector average PE (14.54)

RED has a lot more shares on issue: 1,283,597,526 (to be exact) times current SP of 14 cents = curre.nt market cap of approx $180,000,000.  For RED to have a market cap of $1,487 million (i.e. identical value to MML) its share price would need to be approx $1.16.  Conversely, if MML had the same number of shares on issue as RED has, its share price right now wouldn't be $7.90, but $1.16.

So basically from a pure numbers perspective, RED can have the same market capitalisation as MML when its operating profit (after tax which I believe is minimal in the first 4 years) reaches $102,960,633.  Sounds logical!

If we refer to the BFS document issued by RED on 16 July 2009 it provides in Table 6 production estimates.  The way the timing is looking RED's production Year 1 will almost exactly sync with our financial year (July 2011 to June 2012).  Targeted production Year 1 was estimated at 45,700 oz Gold and 245,800 oz Silver (although recent indications are they will be more aggressive with their targets from the outset).  If we do the math using $1,000 net gold price (after deducting operating cost of $US351 per ounce) and $30 per ounce for silver, the operating profit for Yr 1 comes in at $53,074,000. Hey presto - we're already half way to MML's net profit!

In Yr 2 RED projects at 72,200 ounces of Gold and 191,900 ounces of Silver = $77,957,000 and the ounces grow by 25% in Yr 3 and 40% in year 4.  This is only using $1,000 gold (i.e. net price after $351 is deducted) and $30 silver.  Big (huge!) probability that gold and silver prices will be far higher!

I know this is simple modelling so please excuse any glaring gaps I might not have considered - but which ever way you cut it, RED is bloody cheap (as you have been highlighting Beatle)!  Using my basic Yr 1 math, it's on a forward PE of 3.4.  Looking forward to Yr 2 production and the PE at current SP of 14 cents is less than 2 times!

Back to MML - as I said earlier, I don't know what the proven reserves are or any of the resource details but I'm assuming they have a much larger proven resource than RED currently has. In a year or less we would all expect that RED would be revising its resource significantly higher.

I have also noticed in recent times that MML is well recommended by a strong variety of Brokers, including some of the larger players.  Getting more of the Brokerage houses on board counts for a lot in a stock's valuation over time.  It's a very important part of the role of a CEO (particularly for small caps) to get out there and woo (i.e. inform, educate, seduce) the broking community.  RED will have to pick up this part of its game in due course once producing.  

Cheers
Geez


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## beatle (13 May 2011)

Hi Moit and Geez, an absolutely great comparative analysis and commentary of RED re MML Geez! 

Both RED and MML have considerable things in common, but also many other things vastly different. And from your financial comparison Geez you clearly provide great insight as to what the potential upside is for RED. Having MML already up there, both producing considerable low cost gold with huge profits, in a way shows to the uninformed investor what RED could achieve if it begins to turn market sentiment around.

Why MML has been so successful though, is that it didn't start with a clean sheet of paper, it didn't have to go through the process of getting MPSA's granted, and it didn't have to put a processing plant in place - each of those things were facilitated by the fact that MML acquired a small already established operating underground mining operation, and has subsequently beefed it up over time. That has cut considerable time off the front end of developing the project and has allowed MML to raise cash at higher prices so its share capital didn't suffer the same amount of share dilution. 

AND since RED continues to trade at substantially below its indicated NPV's and as Geez points out MML runs now at a P/E of around 14 whereas RED's indicated P/E is around 3.4! Thus RED is cheeeeeeep!!!

BUT RED needs to get its operation up and running so that the market will start to change its mind about the ho-hum talk and recognise RED's actions based on actual production and profits. That is probably no more than 4 months away now at the latest! I understand that the project area has been bathed in sunshine now for at least a week and prior to that there were the odd days of sunshine and some rainy days, but most importantly the vital concrete pours are now well and truly set in stone!

With regard to MML, it is a considerably lower cost operation whilst its Co-O resources remain due to the much higher head grade of ore, in the teens g/t, but I say resource as being in a more difficult environment to convert resources into reserves its problematic as to how many more years of viable mining will remain ahead of it. But whilst the sunshines you should bathe in it and MML has certainly done that whilst RED has copped a hammering with the rain! 

RED's reserves are roughly double MML's in terms of ounces of gold, and extend over a 10 year horizon, but its P/E ratio around 3.4 times makes a farce of its current share price. AND to boot, RED does not have a 4 year tax holiday as Geez suggests, but a 5 year tax holiday - RED management have been ultra-cautious to the extent of not wanting to provide a more bullish estimate prior to it being granted by the Philippines govt, but its based on 50% of mineable reserves on start up as per its application and RED will be applying for a 10 year life on start up!

And yes Geez, you are quite right, that RED CEO needs to commence the turnaround of market perception, and that should be possible in the coming months as the project comes up towards commencement.


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## desjosie (13 May 2011)

Very good reading.. from both Geez and beatle..didnt understand much of it (being a newbie) but it was interesting..


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## TabJockey (13 May 2011)

You should never use PE ratios on 1 mine companies, the mine is not perpetual.

Also if you want to make a prudent valuation you have to set relative conservative commodity prices. There is not a "HUGE" probability of higher silver and gold prices during RED production, consensus estimates put initial RED production at gold price peaks and as production ramps gold price is expected to drop, perhaps very quickly.

Ofcoarce the cash cost over there in PNG is bloody low so you dont have to worry about turning a profit, but assuming $1500 gold price for the life of the mine will significantly overvalue future cash flows and underestimate the risk inherent in commodity price volatility.

I agree that fundamentally RED is cheap though.


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## Moit (13 May 2011)

Hi Beatle and Geez. Thankyou for your very thought out and informative posts to my questions. Very much appreciated. I havnt got time to write at the moment but will get back to you on a later date. Thanks again, Moit


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## andrewk65 (13 May 2011)

Hi all
hi tabjockey. Just wondered do you really believe gold will go lower. Seems to me its rise is due to the global realisation that the us dollar is nothing more than an a4 sheet sliced up and printer by the tonne whenever the us pleases. Until the us changes its monetary policy there is no reason for gold to fall as it is the only viable alternative to the dollar. As far as i can see from current announcenents coming out of the us there will be no changes in the next few years, and if anything the us will collapse rather than fix the problems. They simply do not know how to control their debt. I would suggest any concensus estimates that suggest gold will fall must be backed by the belief that the us can sirt itself out. Do you really believe that. My only fear is that in the next year or two the price of gold will be the least of our worries. Gfc from hell will be next if something doesnt change, and by all accounts thise that made all the decisions during gfc are still there.


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## beatle (14 May 2011)

Hi All RED posters, great to see all the posts at the moment. And gee I can't believe RED has fallen further, with a market cap now around A$170 million!!!

I would like to reply to TabJockey with regard to a couple of points:

1. Firstly, just to confirm that RED has got 1 project at the moment, its located in Philippines, not PNG. It has got the potential for another much larger resource at its Mapawa MPSA about 20 kms up the road (potentially a substantially much larger gold resource within a Boyongan like porphyry - I suggest you check out the exploration intercepts to date, up to a few hundred metres around 1 g/t).

2. I agree that any mineral project is a non-renewable resource, and the most favoured means to value such are NPV values. The P/E values are still used, and on a relative basis RED's P/E is considerably below industry standards - and the fact that its Siana mine has a life of at least 10 years based on mineable reserves gives an idea that a P/E of around 3 is very cheap based on current share price.

3. Gold price is always an essential consideration. Just remember that the gold price, in Australian dollars, peaked almost 12 months ago (June 2010 - ref to: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=2Y ). Since that time the aussie gold price has declined as a result of the substantially increased strength of the aussie dollar. This in itself is almost a natural hedge, as we have seen recently that any significant dips in the US$ gold price has been accompanied by a significant dip in the aussie, and whether its a 1:1 correlation in the future is hard to predict, but I suggest that any drop in the gold price over the coming year is likely to be accompanied by a simiar drop in the aussie dollar, particularly since most of the recent increases in US gold price has been attributed to a drop in US dollar exchange value. Further, please note that Siana has an NPV based on its 2008 US$ valuation at US$800 close to the current market value of RED notwithstanding it has now got a fully funded project getting readied at present, and obviously a considerably higher gold price for the forseeable future.


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## beatle (19 May 2011)

RED trading is on low volume so I guess its a bit uncertain as to whether this current minor uptrend is leading to any more significant rise, BUT at least the share price is up against the medium term downward trend. Perhaps if the market becomes aware that the concrete is getting harder (lol) then the price will move up further on higher volumes. (I'm praying for it anyway!).


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## desjosie (23 May 2011)

Most of all trades today have been with a "U" not the normal "B" for buy or "S" for sell..
can any one inform me what "U" may mean


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## beatle (30 May 2011)

Hi Desjosie, I'm none the wiser re the relevance and actual details of the U trades, but I'm sure its part of the juggling game that goes on between the bigger players, inter or intra!

The big question on my mind, and probably is also on the minds of the many RED observers, is - When is the latest we can still get RED shares relatively cheaply, ie WHEN is RED about to take off towards the giddy heights we all anticipate. RED appears to be wakening from its slumber the past few trading days, even though volume is not so much above average. My view is that one day soon we will all be saying, Oh heck (or stronger!) I should have loaded up even more! 

(Seems like those concrete foundations are now about cured sufficiently for the heavy loads and we know that the crane is onsite, plus the mill, AND they must be close to completely dewatering the pit now....). Get the picture of how I'm thinking?


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## desjosie (30 May 2011)

Thanks for the response to my Question Beatle .. I thought that it could have been something along those lines.. With you and all the others who have confidence in Red ..I am awaiting the day I turn on the computer and see the sp up in the dizzy heights. I felt it was unfortunate at the begining of the year i had to sell all a majority of my red shares to pay for funeral costs for my father, but thankfully the sp had dropped well below my sell price since that time and I was able to buy back in and hold a lot more than I previously did. so out of a dark gloomy period in my life.. a silver (No - Gold) lining will come of it.. That I'm sure of..


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## Buckfont (3 June 2011)

All is very quiet here on this thread. I`m starting to become very disillusioned with all the information that has come my way both professionally and through my own nutting out with nothing but a big downward pointy arrow.

Anybody willing to cheer me up?


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## Gold Munster (3 June 2011)

Mate.
I have been following RED since last sep, bt @ 12 sld at 17, bt in again @18c , and have increased my holdings again at 14c.

WRT RED, lets look at from an investment view.
one could buy a house for 600k, & stamp duty alone is 30k, you may make 10% in one year (which I doubt as house price are steady or dropping in most cap cities)  say $60k then pay commision to sell etc and have tenants maybe wreck it. 
I could buy red shares with what i give the gov in stampduty say 200 000 at 14c. 

Why?

So if you are going to be in the market (not in cash) - only invest what you can lose & sleep at night knowing you may lose.

 why gold stocks - risky?
I note all gold stocks have been 20% -30% in the last 6weeks

- go to http://au.ibtimes.com/gold/ and read about fiat money, china trying to increase gold reserves and Europe  (worse off than USA who can print their way out of trouble as all debt is in $US).

So why RED

1. Red has found gold - most explorers can't! 
2. Red has the finance and has equity funding!! if the GFC2 occurs it will keep going unlike LYC which stopped. 
3. Red is unhedged.(PRU has 240kOZ hedged)
4. Red is doing a simple project - building a mine - not trying developing a fusion reactor!
5. Only delay is rain - and who hasn't seen a house project get delayed through rain.
6. Red is trading at just above the high of the 1st post 4 years ago @ 14c. Since then another 900M shares have been issued, diluting the equity / share, so now is an even better time to buy.
7. DBS bt another $10M worth of shares a few weeks back, if they are investing this much, versus most of here probably owning around $10k to $50k worth, they must be confident.

so why RED over a producer?  look at KRM, SAR, GDO to see what happen when they go through commissioning - sp doubles.

- so what other mines are commissioning why not invest in them
- In the next 6? months  BDR, NMG, PRU get commissioned.

my research.

PRU as mentioned - hedged
RED has highest Rsv/Rsc ratio of the four.
RED has lowest Ev/Rsc of the four
RED has no debt (but yes 1200M shares), the rest have at least 70M debt
RED (my calcs) has best ~ 1st yr EPS / Share price  (.05/.14) 
RED has only drilled 3? of 8 sheets at Siama for Rsc/Rsv

A brokerage report - referred to on this site a few blogs back showed the current NPV of RED @ $1500 Au around 42c.
So that $30k could nearly triple to 90k  making 60k and for a lot less stress than buying a house (or putting in a crop like a lot of farmers do.... & praying for rain))

So sit back, shares in the bottom drawer and look at them in 12 months time.....hopefully they have doubled to 25c, if not 42.....

next friday will be a month since the last RED update, so hopefully we may see another release (with a commission date)

Cheers


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## mardo (4 June 2011)

Top post Goldmunster.With the world macro situation as it is today i'm also happy to be holding a gold stock that should start production in the Sept Quarter and be in the lowest quartile of producers for a few years.This will surely outperform bricks & morter within the next few years IMO.


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## beatle (4 June 2011)

Some good points Gold Munster, and whilst I am far too biased to say too much, I can say is that at the height of the GFC RED was like many other undervalued stocks and I wish I had followed my view completely and put all my spare cash in RED at that time. Now I feel like the gloomy outlook is similar to the GFC, but with gold now trading higher with RED having dramatically progressed its project it surely deserves to be valued at more than double what its currently trading at (actually my model suggests its more like a third of the true NPV!!!). Therefore I am now following my fundamental view of its undervalued price, and I have been buying at these current low prices, and will slowly continue buying more - I have sold out many other stocks to free up that cash for buying RED, as I can't see any other gold stocks that are likely to go through the transition from development into production within the next 3 months like RED with so much going for it. 
I wouldn't be surprised to see Baker Steel and JP Morgan to support the stock once it gets into commissioning.
Gold Munster is correct that RED should be soon reporting again on its developments, I understand that the emptying of water from the old pit is close to complete, that the plant is advancing with no big issues being developed, the concrete for the mills is now well and truly curing, and that utilisation of trucks has increased after the heavy rains of past months. 
We are probably only 2 months from plant commissioning and first gold production soon after.
I believe we will see RED begin to start moving up once management confirms its progress and therefore I have been trying to slowly build up another holding way beyond my core holding which has been there for many years! I don't think that RED will trade at this price again once in production.

Finally I hope you get your reward Desjosie, sounds like you deserve a turnaround, and I will be glad to know you have made some of that on our mate RED!!!


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## Buckfont (5 June 2011)

Thanks Gold Munster for your excellent post. Deserves a slab of your favourite ale. Had a brain snap and as I know RED will deliver. I am heavily weighted in its favour. 

thanks again


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## beatle (6 June 2011)

Whilst I'm not a member of Fat Prophets, I believe that RED was given a BUY recommendation by Fat Prophets middle of last week. I saw a business program on Foxtel yesterday morning (Saturday, repeat show) and the program host mentioned it - but he couldn't recall what project (and what mineral) RED held!

This proves to me that RED needs to get out and about (IN AUSTRALIA) telling all brokers on a one by one basis, about its project, and its soon to be monthly gold production/gross profit! Once the market gets more realisation of what RED is on the verge of producing I believe its share price will begin moving higher.


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## Hurricane (6 June 2011)

One question that is going begging at the moment though, is where are the drill results?????


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## beatle (6 June 2011)

" where are the drill results?????"

- maybe the drill samples are solid gold and are being kept to make up the gold medallions in readiness for the mine opening, lol!

Actually from what I understand the last holes drilled at Mapawa were sampled and results that were significant were already reported - thus no outstanding results are awaited. Then when the rain set in the rigs were taken back to the minesite awaiting relocation about Siana or elsewhere. Presumably the rigs are drilling now that the rain has abated.

I believe that management consider the Mapawa porphyry does have considerable value, but there is some query as to the exact location and depth of where the real mineralisation is - this is reinforced in the last couple of reports regarding the Mapawa porphyry. 

I emphasise that RED's valuation of mid-30's cents to the share price relates solely to Siana, and Mapawa is just the cream,, and in time once the gold production begins it will be time for Mapawa AND all the other highly prospective exploration areas will become more of the focus. And RED will have something like $17 million cash for that exploration after all capex is met on the Siana plant.


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## Hurricane (7 June 2011)

Thanks Beatle, informative posting as always.

Surely if they thought that Mapawa has this potential they'd be there drilling to back it up? I know they need to get the main project up and running (no sh*t) but surely they also need to let the market know that this stock has potential down the track????

P.S GO RED!!


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## beatle (7 June 2011)

I don't disagree with you Hurricane, its so important for RED to both get the gold production up and running and also to let the market know that Siana is just the cash cow for exploring the considerable potential of both the wider Siana and Mapawa MPSA's.

On that front I note that MML, RED's closest comparison in the relative vicinity, has been doing a great job of letting the market know of its wider exploration potential. And the fact that MML currently has a market cap of around $1.5 BILLION (RED $170 million) - this suggests to me that RED has got a long way to go before the market is fully informed of RED's current and potential market value!


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## Moit (9 June 2011)

Hi all RED club members..

Some great posts of late, especially Gold Munster. Its always great to see a newbie to the thread adding his well educated thoughts on RED and its future. Bring on that commissioning date.

Still not much on the activity front, other than the 10 million odd traded this morning and the 20 million traded a few days ago. I wonder who is bailing out this time??? But more importantly which of the instos is topping up??? Or is there someone new in the mix.

One last thing. For all of your who trade through comm sec. I had to have a little giggle to myself this morning when a turned on the computer. Up popped comm sec. I noticed the most popular stocks. Theres about six, and bugger me dead. Theres RED at the top of the list. I thought this must be a miss print, or a computer glitch, lol. As we all know its usually the blue chips like the BHPs, MQG and the LEIs and so forth. But i figured there must have been another large trade, which there was. If it can make it into that window every now and again RED might just get noticed.

Anyhow not long now, C'mon RED


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## beatle (9 June 2011)

The equity markets around the world, plus end of financial year blues in Australia is a powerful combined negative force for RED, BUT I have a view that once the negativity settles RED will be moving up due to its own particular situation of getting closer to first gold production. And that first production is a sign of huge profits coming in on a monthly basis thereafter! This will cause a considerable momentum shift to sentiment for RED. 

I still hold my view that RED is considerably under-valued, regardless of the gold price being at this current high level or even US$300/oz less! And just take note that gold price in A$ is going to be hedged somewhat if there is a drop in US$gold price due to the natural antipathetic relationship between A$ currency and US$gold price - if you take a look at the following graph of gold price in A$ it remains on a significant long term uptrend:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=10Y


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## mgm1a (9 June 2011)

hi all. I am in shock-similar to when my Lynas shares went under a dollar in 2008 all way down to 10c. 

At 13c the m.cap IS $166m. The NTA of assets excluding the gold was $136m at Dec, so maybe around $130m with another 6 months of costs and fx variances,say. 

*This leaves an EV of $36m for the 849Koz of deliverable gold with an IGV of $1.2B.*


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## Starcraftmazter (9 June 2011)

The longer it stays low the more time we have to buy more shares, I for one am happy


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## beatle (10 June 2011)

I'm also flabbergasted Mgm1a, I can't believe seeing RED back at this level, especially knowing the stage that RED is at. And yes Starcraftmazter it is a surprisingly good opportunity to buy more shares. I'm wondering if it can go any lower before buying more, but for sure I want some more within the current price range, but will hold off in case some end of financial year dumpers are clearing their bottom drawers!

On the ground I have been watching the weather daily for both Surigao and Butuan, the 2 towns within cooee that gives an indication of the weather conditions for Siana, and clearly the sun has been shining for a while now, and I do know that the pit water is now close to being emptied, probably will be empty within the next couple of weeks. I understand that the trucks have increased utilisation on waste rock removal in readiness for opening up the pit at the time of plant commissioning. The mill's en route to the minesite, and should be positioned on its concrete base within the next few weeks. Its all coming together now and therefore the current share price is absolutely mind-boggling.

On the trading front it appears that some bigger lumps have been relocated into different fund entities in recent days, probably taking advantage to the reducing price. I would say that the dumper at 13.5 cents today (of around 1.5 million shares was more likely a trader than a fund position).


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## anderbond (10 June 2011)

Hi guys, I am still around but have been under the pump with work, moving into a new apartment, getting my new wife off to Japan, and not really believing the RED SP. Still, as I had to sell a few off at 15c to cover Stamp Duty on the apartment pending other funds arriving, I still have the opportunity to buy back at a "profit". Completely insane when you think about it. Beatle, am still planning on going to the party, so hopefully meet there. By the way, I was running low on older REDs as I discovered some of my stock was "off" (a bit like RED lol) and had to pour it out as straining so much sediment through my teeth made them change colour, but thanks to Grays Online I have been able to pick up some great older wine at very attractive prices................hey....Just like the RED SP. AB


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## beatle (10 June 2011)

Hi Anderbond, good to hear you're still there, and yes I can confirm that I WILL be at the mine opening, unless it coincides with Christmas, lol! So I hope to catch up with you then onsite. Its amazing to see how low RED has gone in the past weeks and my view is that you can buy back in at current prices and have little downside from here (I hope!). I've been adding to my holding in recent days, and I'll keep adding a few at lower prices if it continues to drop.

Moit, I failed to notice your post, I think that you were posting just as I was also preparing a post the other day. Regarding your comments on the big sale, I understand it was simply a move from one fund to another fund (and assume it was a related party), thus no insto selling out on that particular transaction.


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## mardo (14 June 2011)

More pictures for June have been put up on the Red website under Gallery.I must say some of them still look pretty wet  however minesite dewatering is making good progress.


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## beatle (15 June 2011)

Well picked up Mardo, the photos are most informative and clearly the dewatering is progressing well and the trucks seem to have access to an ever-increasing dewatered pit zone. The plant also is progressing well. I haven't checked the website for quite a while and had failed to realise even the earlier pics added for May and previous months.

Its a joke with RED trading at 12 - 12.5 cents, with a closing market cap today of $160 million. In fact soon RED's slide must surely come to an end, I'm amazed how low it has gone and I can't see it being much of a risk at RED's current share price and could move very quickly to higher levels based on my cash flow analysis.


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## desjosie (15 June 2011)

Like to know peoples thoughts on what the hell happened today


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## nomore4s (15 June 2011)

desjosie said:


> Like to know peoples thoughts on what the hell happened today




Care to elaborate? I don't see anything out of the ordinary.


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## Boggo (15 June 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Care to elaborate? I don't see anything out of the ordinary.




Me neither, its just doing what it has been doing since last October.

What have you seen desjosie ?


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## beatle (15 June 2011)

Hi Desjosie, I also saw the aberration that you refer to! (But of course you are clearly watching more closely than some others, lol, and more in tune with myself!).

I think that RED getting clobbered, particularly with 1 relatively big sale (of just over 2.5 million at 12 cents) is indicative of some smaller insto, or bigger trader, wanting to get out prior to end of June financial year. And that may have no relevance to RED other than RED being another of the materials sector displaying dismal performance over the past month. Probably some investors, whoever they are, are lightening their portfolios of gold stocks with the outlook for commodities, including gold, looking fairly negative. 
The other big(ger) trade of 10 million shares in RED today occurred at the beginning of the day, a crossing, and may be more related to a relocation of the shares within a related party funds group. 
And the fact it touched 11.5 cents (just 16,000 shares) close to the end of trading, is really sick but could be more a test to see if someone wanted to dump shares at this lower price - fortunately no one did dump at that price, but who knows what might happen tomorrow and following days (just looking at the terrible short term trend that is developing).
I am also not that impressed with what has happened to the RED share price, but I continue to think that the fundamentals will ultimately see this turnaround big time, not sure exactly when that will happen, but probably once RED informs the market of progress and an anticipated date for first gold production. I can't see it being much later than about 2 1/2 months from now for that first gold production, subject to nothing rearing its ugly head (and RED is unlikely to suffer any major issue other than rain at Siana, its a standard gold development with a historic pit that is close to being fully dewatered at present).
I continue to load up at the moment!


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## fastbuck1 (15 June 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Care to elaborate? I don't see anything out of the ordinary.




most likely talking about the 10 mil cross trade or dump, i can see red going much much lower with the end of financel year approaching , those that bought high will sell out to get a loss on there books then buy back in july 1, maybe up swing after that, never the less will be .115 tomorrow, seams to be going half a cent aday.....ouch!!!


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## desjosie (15 June 2011)

Thankyou Beatle and Fastbuck1 for your indepth and knowledgable response to my question.. As you mentioned Beatle, I did take alot of notice of todays trading and watched all the sell off's with a disbelief..But as you said .. "great time to top up"..
I appreciate and thank people like yourself and Fastbuck1 who can pass on little snippets of knowledge to us who have just started out in the world of trading..


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## beatle (16 June 2011)

Desjosie I'm happy to provide some comment that will give you another interpretation, the thing to note is that my view has not been of much help in predicting an improvement in RED's share price. I've found it to be very frustrating at a time when I can't believe how low the share price has been. 
It's good to see Fastbuck still following RED & I agree with his view that tax loss selling must be one of the main issues facing certain investors, and if that's the case then hopefully there is a time limit on this downtrend!


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## desjosie (16 June 2011)

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110616/pdf/41z7l0zrsvnwyc.pdf

Some news that .. "some" people may be interested in.


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## beatle (16 June 2011)

Absolutely Desjosie, another great announcement by RED that confirms progress is continuing towards the first gold pour and its unlikely that activity on the ground will be delayed too much in coming weeks as the rain is certainly not the factor that it has been coming out of the wet season as they are now!!!

Clearly the early trading suggests that RED will continue to be under some pressure from investors wanting to liquidate regardless, and dare I say it, for mine its probably the BEST and LAST (???) opportunity to get RED at a considerable discount to NPV - at 12 cents RED is valued at $154 million - on an NPV basis the gold is valued at more than 3 times that value!!!

You can blame this rout on many factors, such as tax selling, the Greek situation, US economy, whatever, but you can thank those same issues for allowing us to buy $3 of RED shares for $1 cash!!! And in time you will be able to convert your $3 of RED shares into cash (at $3!!!). IMO of course.


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## beatle (20 June 2011)

Trading in RED is quite brisk this morning, and has been similar the last few trading days. Can't understand what I'm seeing, seems as though someone doesn't believe that RED is within cooee of producing gold at a considerable net profit per ounce!

Any ideas why/who wants to get out (of course someone is buying every share that is being sold!)?


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## hugh_jarzz (20 June 2011)

Hi Beatle...I'm still a holder, albeit significantly lighter than last time we spoke, which fortuitously has proven to be a wise decision. I am nonplussed at the continuing decline in  RED's shareprice but have to keep on reminding myself that markets are never rational and that sometimes a stock, no matter how intrinsically cheap it may appear, will always appear cheap. I remain dubious about  management as they seem more concerned about constructing a technically perfect mine than anything else and their choice of partners on the financial side has been questionable, to say the least. I know you will say that the suite of investors in RED is the envy of other comparable explorer/cum producers however, I'll bet there are questions being asked. I understand that the Board are surprised that it sometimes rains in that part of the Phillipines but anyone who has followed this coy for any length of time will be rather teed off that Mapawa seems to have been put to one side whilst the technical aspects of Siana are mulled over (Oh!, I forgot, the right size drill rods aren't available or it takes 10 years for assay results to be returned. Wasn't $20m of the over subscription last year to be ear-marked for Mapawa...oops...Rain!!) Sorry to be a wet blanket but these guys have disappointed me immensely, despite what any RED apologists may say. I hope they can finally meet one guideline and start gold production in the Sept qtr, as hope springs eternal!


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## beatle (20 June 2011)

Hi Hugh_Jarzz, and thanks for your comments, good to know you are still in RED even if you have lightened off (did I buy some of your stock, lol!).

AND of course I don't disagree with a number of your points made, particularly regarding the last big capital raising but we were pushed into the corner by RED managements crazy decision to take up more funds than they needed! Even I had to change my vote and comments to remove the possibility of the entire funding arrangement coming crashing down about us. But thats behind us now, and we know for certain that RED has sufficient funds to not only bring Siana into production, but also to increase the exploration effort on as many fronts as they see worthwhile, including Mapawa as well as on the Siana MPSA.

On the project front its been a very frustrating and disappointing last 6 months. And similar to you, hope remains eternal, that I expect Siana to come online now in the September quarter - and yes you are quite right that even if it looks cheap the market seems to be continuing its dumping. But I would have thought as we approach the final lap that significant share sales as we are seeing now would be less likely. I'm starting to think that a few are unloading completely unrelated to RED, and more related to other issues on the horizon with respect to the US, Eurozone etc. Its been a characteristic of the entire gold market of late.

BUT RED IS VERY CHEAP NOW, and it provides an opportunity to get more stock before the market realises that RED is about to produce lots of gold cheaply. with considerable profits! IMO of course. (I just wonder if the selling will continue at this current price or drop it lower, or the selling will dry up soon - any thoughts, anyone?).


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## mgm1a (20 June 2011)

If i haven't said it before (old age creeping in!), at  these prices, particularly under most recent cap raise, that RED's cheapness just logically has to be on a M&A filter on the PCs of lots of deal makers...........our number 2 shareholder giving active support in Conquest/ Catalpa tie-up with a warning to others..........

"London-listed fund manager Baker Steel, which has millions tied up in WA's junior gold sector, says a $1.2 billion deal between Conquest Mining, Catalpa Resources and Newcrest Mining will be a 'wake-up call' to the rest of the industry to consolidate or be left behind." 

I am nervous that nothing of the sort happens before we get back to more reasonable value.


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## anderbond (21 June 2011)

Hi Guys, I entirely agree with many of Beatle's and other comments. It has been a very disappointing 6 months. To be fair to management, the unrelenting and unseasonal rain has caused the project to be running considerably behind. However, the latest pics show that rapid progress is now being made and soon we will have a projected first pour date. But the world has changed for the moment in relation to gold shares, although not the gold price. One only has to look at MML and NCM to see the carnage is pretty much across the board. The story is the same globally. There was one bright spot last week with the OGC announcement, but that faded again yesterday. Hard to predict the coming months, except to say that if the gold price holds up or increases further, eventually attention will return to the producers. So my hope is that we will still manage to "surf" on top of a surging SP in the coming months. I look forward to seeing some of you at "the party". AB


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## beatle (22 June 2011)

Hi AB, good to see your getting ready for our meeting "at the party" (or as I refer to it as the First Supper - its certainly not going to be the last supper!).

I'm still intrigued to know who is wasting their past investment dollars getting out at this late stage! (Even though its up this morning I don't know if the craziness selling has stopped, I'm not convinced of it yet!). 

Mgm1a, you make a good point with regard to takeover target material, but I'm hoping RED will move out of that zone within the next month or so as start up day gets closer. 

Good luck to all holders, and I look forward to seeing as many posters at the mine opening first supper party! (Assuming we are invited, but I'm gonna take possession of the keys to the mine if they don't let me in, lol!).


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## fastbuck1 (22 June 2011)

beatle said:


> Hi AB, good to see your getting ready for our meeting "at the party" (or as I refer to it as the First Supper - its certainly not going to be the last supper!).
> 
> I'm still intrigued to know who is wasting their past investment dollars getting out at this late stage! (Even though its up this morning I don't know if the craziness selling has stopped, I'm not convinced of it yet!).
> 
> ...




beatle i'm thinking that red will issue its long term holder a 10 oz bar each for there frustration over the years ...or am i dreaming lol....


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## Starcraftmazter (23 June 2011)

I've been holding on for only about a month, but I'm not really worried about the selling that has happened (or any potential selling that will occur) as it's a clear reflection on the overall market.

I'm still looking to divert a lot of my money into RED in about 1-2 months so I'm easy with the prices


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## Hurricane (23 June 2011)

Starcraftmazter, go on the ATO website and bring up the RED chart along with the ASX200 chart. you'll see that the overall market is down which has pulled RED along for the ride. If you believe that RED and the market overall is at a low then the only place to go from there is............???


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## desjosie (24 June 2011)

beatle said:


> you will be able to convert your $3 of RED shares into cash (at $3!!!). IMO of course.




I love optimism... It makes getting up in the morning feel a little bit better..:iagree:


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## Starcraftmazter (24 June 2011)

Hurricane said:


> Starcraftmazter, go on the ATO website and bring up the RED chart along with the ASX200 chart. you'll see that the overall market is down which has pulled RED along for the ride. If you believe that RED and the market overall is at a low then the only place to go from there is............???




Can you predict the market? Because I can't 

But either way, once the mine is completed, this piece of news will obviously far outweigh what is happening in the market. Until then however, I feel that we are at the market's mercy.


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## beatle (24 June 2011)

Hi Desjosie, i'm glad the comment helps with your getting out of bed, now its up to RED to deliver the cash! In fact i'm getting more confident that its only a short time away as each sunny day that goes by at minesite brings us 1 day closer to first gold production. 
The cash flow valuation which suggests RED share price 3+ times more than it currently is, WILL likely be an under-estimate of future share price IF the project performs as per feasibility study expectations...


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## Starcraftmazter (24 June 2011)

Read today on MB that gold prices are likely to correct to 1400 in the next 2-3 months. This could play really well with the timing of gold production of RED, so I think it would be good to top up investments in 1-2 months time.

Purely speculative of course. Fun times ahead for sure


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## anderbond (27 June 2011)

Hi Guys, The "Greek disease" looks like it is spreading if the Friday night news on Italian banks is anything to go by. Can't help wondering if we are going to see a another global recession looming next year. Risk aversion has again become the order of the day, and it looks like the A$ might go back to US$ parity or below. Should be good for gold and  Aussie gold stocks in time (yay RED!). AB


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## Starcraftmazter (28 June 2011)

You guys catch the announcement today? 



> Deutsche Securities sold a net 14,654,111 Red 5 Ltd shares between May 19, 2011 and June 23, decreasing from 85,839,931 shares (6.69%) to 71,185,820 shares (5.55%).




Interesting decision, I wonder if it's related to the Greece problems and Deutsche Bank needing to raise capital in order to cover it's losses for the potential and looming Greek default?

Needless to say, I'm sure many will be happy to learn the source of the downward pressure on RED as of late.


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## beatle (29 June 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> You guys catch the announcement today?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Hi Starcraftmazter,

Its an interesting announcement regarding the drop in substantial shareholdings, but how it relates exactly to RED shareholdings is unclear. DBA refers to it being a reduction is holdings held as collateral, thus whether there are more shares to come is hard to say, and who holds the shares directly is also unknown, other than a nominee company held some of them.

I take heart from the new announcement that the recently appointed director, who is a mining engineer by background, has bought 250,000 shares. Thus he must be confident things are working out well on the ground. That is a very real vote of confidence for the project.


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## jancha (29 June 2011)

beatle said:


> Hi Starcraftmazter,
> 
> Its an interesting announcement regarding the drop in substantial shareholdings, but how it relates exactly to RED shareholdings is unclear. DBA refers to it being a reduction is holdings held as collateral, thus whether there are more shares to come is hard to say, and who holds the shares directly is also unknown, other than a nominee company held some of them.
> 
> I take heart from the new announcement that the recently appointed director, who is a mining engineer by background, has bought 250,000 shares. Thus he must be confident things are working out well on the ground. That is a very real vote of confidence for the project.




250,000 shares? Not really a kings ransom Beatle. If DBA keeps dumping their remaining 70 odd million shares the sp wont be going anywhere for awhile. That is more of a concern yes?
 Hopefully they're selling because they need the money.
Happy to sit on the fence for now.


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## beatle (30 June 2011)

Hi Jancha, good to see you are sitting watching, even if you are not yet ready to buy.

Just to take you up on a few points, but also to see that its good to know that DBA put in another notice confirming the further reduced holding as of 24 June 2011. It may not be the end of it all, but at least its coming down slowly (as is the share price!).

I agree that its time to watch RED rather than lash out and aggressively buy at the moment, better to make sure that the shares are completely run down!

As for the 250,000 shares recently bought by the new non-exec director. I agree its not a huge holding, but it is still a $30,000 dollars investment, putting his view before us all effectively that the project is coming along well. He is a career mining engineer, he has done his own due dilligence at this late stage of the development and clearly must consider that the project is coming along, finally! To me its a significant statement of how he considers things are moving on. You might not see it that way, but me as a shareholder takes a lot of comfort from it.

My view remains fairly boringly obvious, that the valuation of Siana is completely out of kilter with the trading, and perhaps the UNsophisticated shareholder behind the DBA notices has forced it to this bargain basement level whilst the market is also very unsteady. But at the right time, RED share price will begin its bounce to a much higher level. IF Siana were to perform anything like the feasibility study outcome then RED share price will move towards 30 cents IMO! The exciting thing is that each day that goes by brings us closer to that outcome, and whilst I have stopped buying frantically at the moment since it became clear that an Unsophisticate was unloading, I will add further to my considerable (relative to my overall investments, that is) holding in the coming months.

I do want to add, that this episode with the DBA unloading, proves to me once more, how a disgrace it is that ASX Listing Rules allow for placements to be made to so called "Sophisticated" Investors who it should be termed are more "Reckless Opportunists" who panic once they drop shares below their favoured buy-in price!

RED will recover, and in fact will provide us further opportunity to make money in the coming months in my view!


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## mr. jeff (30 June 2011)

I have been watching your discussions in the last while and thought I would add a chart to make the place a little more colourful.





3 year, weekly candle.
Exciting times for this *stock*


Good luck


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## beatle (1 July 2011)

Great to see your post Mr Jeff (and the pretty coloured chart!).
I would love to hear your views on the chart if you have any?

Once this selldown is complete I am confident that RED will be a screaming BUY! Maybe with the end of June we have already seen the lowest of the lows at 11 cents? But who knows which Reckless Opportunists remain holding that want to unload!

All I know is that eventually the trading caused by this selldown (which has dominated the share price lately) will turn upwards when the market is finally convinced that the project is about to start producing gold - and if it turns out to be along the lines of the BFS then its going to be an exciting time ahead.


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## mr. jeff (2 July 2011)

Well for the chart I would say that there is definitely some building interest with that increased volume that was highlighted.

Blind Freddy can see that the 11c level is extremely important and if this is broken then it may be quite upsetting to the holders (who became "long term" in December last year when the price showed a double top) !

With the point of the project and the POG it is a chance each way, the most critical thing being that there are no hold ups to production and no major drops in the gold price. I would expect that even reasonably minor teething could see a renewed bit of selling. 
It could be a great trade from 11c with a stop at 9.7 or so although of course I do not advise anyone to buy or sell anything, but if you do buy, have an exit strategy.
Also, POG will be something of a consideration now that it has shown a clear break of the 1500 level. BE CAREFUL AND DON'T FALL IN LOVE!


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## beatle (4 July 2011)

Most appreciative of your thoughts Mr Jeff and yes I agree that it would be a difficult pill to swallow if it got below 11 cents.

The question I have in my mind is whether the previous holder that is now not a substantial holder (as per the DBA announcement) remains holding for a period or will continue to drop shares in the coming weeks. If they continued to pester the market with sales it could sit in the current range for a few weeks before their sells are finally fillled. In fact I hope they keep up the selling until they are all out, then we won't be affected by more selling once the project is close to commissioning.

As for your thoughts on the possibility of teething problems at commencement, this is always a threat, but in fact most standard gold CIP/CIL plants tend to come on line with the odd small issue but rarely anything that holds up gold production thereafter - bearing in mind that most projects go via this BFS route and therefore have a considerable amount of metallurgical testing before the plant is designed (as has this Siana project). 
With the start of the mine, maybe the biggest issue is not the open pit but rather the start up of the underground operation in year 3/4, although if the rain will always be a threat to mine production during the wet season (which seemed to continue for 5 - 6 months this year!).

If the POG falls away somewhat, my view is that it will limit the upside rather than force it down further from here - note that the BFS was developed off a gold price of US$800/oz and at anything above around A$1,200 it makes fantastic yearly returns, and with a 10 year plus mine life PE's around 3 and 4 at current share price won't last long!


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## Starcraftmazter (4 July 2011)

Pretty strong buying today, I wonder if it's the start of the uptrend?


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## jancha (4 July 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Pretty strong buying today, I wonder if it's the start of the uptrend?




Lets hope so but RED have made brief runs before and been hammered back back down with some large sells.
 Has Deutsche bank finished selling is the question and when they have there'll be other traders who got in at 11c-12c selling for a quick profit.
So in answer to your question Starcraftmazter i'd say it wont be happening until RED start producing.


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## desjosie (5 July 2011)

Thought some may want to see this..


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## Buckfont (5 July 2011)

desjosie said:


> Thought some may want to see this..
> 
> 
> View attachment 43522
> ...




Thanks for those charts desjosie. Have never seen them before. where are thet sourced from? Go RED


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## desjosie (5 July 2011)

Those charts above and any other stock can be viewed at this website..


```
http://www.aussiebulls.com/Default.asp
```


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## Buckfont (5 July 2011)

desjosie said:


> Those charts above and any other stock can be viewed at this website..
> 
> 
> ```
> ...




Many thanks


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## beatle (5 July 2011)

Some interesting posts on RED the last few days, great to see so many watching it - but again that is also prompted when we see some slight positive movement too I guess.

I do agree with Jancha though, that caution is necessary at the moment as we still don't know what the last of those shares from DBA are doing - are they sitting tight or ready to be dumped again onto the market! I hope they dump actually, it will give us another opportunity to pick up more cheap shares, and then its good to run up way beyond where it has been before IMO. The last thing I like the thought of is to allow that dumper to make money when it goes for the run as they have caused so much heartache for us true believers!

And don't get me wrong, I haven't been selling any RED, I was accumulating more until I realised that someone was dumping a few weeks ago - shame I didn't pick the signal sooner though, its cost me quite a bit in the interim!

Just be aware that the pattern of those last dumps was - buy a few, then dump a lot at a slightly lower price, it went on for a long time and it is confirmed by DBA's announcement - they bought shares at a slightly higher price to entice more buyers in before dumping. They still probably have many millions that they might (?) dump. 

But longer term, RED is going to be a real winner IMO!!!


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## beatle (6 July 2011)

Consider some key points on RED:

1. Siana BFS completed at US$800/oz and confirmed a robust gold project. 850,000 ozs gold over 10 year lifespan on current reserves, cash operating cost , US$400/oz . RED owns 97.6%.

2.  RED has A$58 million cash in bank with A$42 million to complete plant build. Also a standby debt facility of $8 million available.

3. Development at least 50% completed, with approx 10 weeks construction till plant commissioning. First full year gold production of around 90,000 ozs gold.

4. Indicated first few years PE based on current price of 12.5 cents around 3!

5. Substantial shareholdings held by large funds management groups including Matthews Capital, Baker Steel, JP Morgan, Sprott Asset Management, amongst others.

6. Current market cap of around $160 million!

7. Two of the RED directors have bought shares in the past month!!!

Once news gets out that the project is about ready to pour first gold it won't be sitting around 12.5 cents IMO.


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## geezuguys (6 July 2011)

Hi Beatle

Agree!  It's such a compelling investment - the fundamentals don't lie and at some stage the market will wake up to the opportunity - we already have, many more will come.  The fundamentals don't change irrespective of negative market sentiment.  I guess that's why I've slept well over the past month despite the SP being hammmered.

Re your point on first full year gold production of ~ 90,000 ozs - have I missed something?  BFS stated 45,700 Yr 1 and 72,200 Yr 2.  Interested in your input re these numbers.

Cheers
Geez


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## Moit (7 July 2011)

Hi all RED club members, and hi to the new comers.

Some more interesting thoughts, once again Beatle. You say only 10 weeks. Its certainly a nerve wracking wait. Ive got now idea how you have lasted the best part of 12 years. Lets hope all followers are rewarded nicely, substantially, lol.

We are starting to see great support in buyers, compared to sellers, especially at 13c. With a bit of luck DBA have finished there selling down, and hopefully this is the start of a great run up.

It would be nice to see RED at near previous 12 month highs (19-20c) before a commissioning date is announced. Bring on the sag mill completion, bring on the inaugural gold pour date... 

Just my thoughts, cheers Moit


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## beatle (7 July 2011)

Hi All RED followers, great to see the last few days performance, and you gotta laugh at the contrived price at the close today with a mere 1508 shares to push it up to 14 cents. I'm sure it will look good from a charting point of view, on the high of the day at the close. But I'm more convinced of the fundamentals which suggest to me its a screaming BUY!!!

No GeezeUGuys, you didn't miss anything with the BFS and the first couple of years gold production according to the BFS. Of course that quoted 45,700 ozs in the first year did envisage a part year only and the second year is more in line with what might be expected based on the BFS for 2012, for the full year. But I have used some poetic licence, which may or may not come to fruition:
Since the BFS was completed there have been various changes with the project - the main being the purchase of a new SAG mill, which has got around 15% increased mill throughput compared to the old mill that was being refurbished. That will either impact on higher gold production at an accelerated mining rate, or alternatively an increase in tonnage at slightly lower millhead grade (with reduced costs tonne milled). You will note that RED has been able to increase resources with both a slight change in haul ramp position (and additional access ramp also included) and an increase in lower head grade due to high gold price.
So it might be that Siana produces around the same 73,000 ozs in gold per annum (with increase in gold inventory in resources, or at a higher annual rate, both alternatives at a reduced cost $/oz. And of course, it gradually builds up to around 130,000 ozs gold in subsequent years.

Whatever, RED is going much higher IMO.

Hi Moit, its been a long time coming, but I can feel THE time is just about there now! I look forward to the official mine opening in around November with project about stabilised at that time! I hope to see others there at the time - I expect AB will be there for one.


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## anderbond (8 July 2011)

Hi Beatle....Yes I will be there! It is interesting that the focus has shifted away from Mapawa.
I don't think it is a big concern as all along the Board's stated objective has been Siana. That is where we will get our initial lift off from in the coming weeks. Perhaps Mapawa was likely to cause doubts about their strategy if as happened they failed to hit an elephant early on, so quite rightly they have put it aside temporarily to focus on getting into production at Siana. Could also be that some of the insto's had a few things to say as well. But I hope they announce the gold pour date soon as new wife is still spending in Japan.(lol) AB


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## desjosie (8 July 2011)

Would like to join you there Beatle and others when all is commisioned..but alas.. some of us still have to toil at the office and pay bills.. but as a frequent visitor to the Philippines.. (wife is filipino) I am sure to head that way hopefully the next time we go over to see it in full operation and get a full understanding of the scale of things and get the lay of the land.. Very intersting day today (I thought) to see a bot buying small bite size chunks at .14cents and seeing the frustrated few dropping down to sell at .135cents..to make afew quick bucks..but like you and the other true believers..when the the time draws near to gold pour.. I believe .135 cents will be a thing of the past.


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## beatle (9 July 2011)

Hi AB, Desjosie and ALL RED followers.

(WARNING - This post is not recommended reading for anyone who doesn't want to read negative posts!).

Mapawa - AB, this is only MY reading of Mapawa. I think that since Lance left the group Greg has had a slight change (ie drop) in confidence in making predictions of where to focus the exploration drilling at Mapawa. If you read the last few announcements on Mapawa exploration there was a mention that maybe the core of the mineralisation is at depth, and this coupled with the fact that the last holes which didn't get the same big hits as the first holes, suggests to me that he didn't want to carry on the exploration without some more inspiration. I understand that RED has appointed some more explorationists in the last couple of months, but not sure if they also have porphyry experience but clearly that sort of experience would be beneficial. 
Personally I believe that either alone or in aggregate RED does have another big porphyry sitting within its MPSA's - bearing in mind that Madja etc from earlier much less intensive exploration seemed to be also of great interest to the Anglo geos that were involved with boyongan up the road, but due to no funds at the time RED didn't go very far with its exploration in that part of the Siana MPSA. And I understand that there are other very interesting parts of the Mapawa MPSA outside of LSY prospect. 
In addition, there is clearly more resource to be delineated at Siana adjacent to the existing resource, and I'm confident we will get news of the latest drilling results soon enough from that drilling recently commenced.
Just remember though that Petra's valuation for RED, (I think it was 27 cents - correct me if I'm wrong) is totally related to existing reserves at Siana. And also they estimate that despite assuming a falling gold price in following years. I believe that methodology is flawed as they still assume rising opex costs. My valuation remains in the mid 30's (of course depending upon the starting gold price, which has shot up again overnight!).

Desjosie, yes I hope that we can share the rewards of RED's efforts finally even if I must represent you at the mine opening, lol! Mind you, even with your wife being Filipina I'm sure she wouldn't have much interest going to Siana and looking at a giant hole in the ground with lots of noise in a processing facility - even if you see the odd gold bar! (Only us mining types get excited over that!).

I didn't enjoy that BOT at work yesterday and the small dump at 13.5 cents, I felt like deja vu - it had the same characteristic of what was happening a few weeks ago when the DBA was unloading shares. So I wonder if the push up will be delayed a bit longer.

AB (seems your wife is always in Japan!) - When you're at the mine opening just look for an old guy with white balding hair!


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## anderbond (11 July 2011)

Hi Beatle, Thanks for your insights in respect of Mapawa. There is no doubt the emphasis has receded on this, and I am not surprised at your comments as they make sense. One thing that does concern me a little is that there has been a build up of senior staff since Lance's departure, but I am not too sure that as shareholders, we are yet seeing any benefit from the significantly higher salaries bill. Also, given that the doubling of last year's capital raising where an additional $25 m was raised (thereby further diluting us all) and the reason provided at that time (accelerated drilling of Mapawa), the cash in bank relative to outstanding mine build costs seems to indicate that the additional capital raising is now being used for the general costs structure. I acknowledge that the rain issue has slowed things down, but still feel that the cash position is somewhat less than it should be given that the Mapawa thought bubble seems to have popped. AB


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## beatle (11 July 2011)

Hi AB, good to read your post once gain.

With regard to all drilling, and the increase in senior salaries, I think that they have brought on some more fire power with regard to geos and may be doing some behind the scenes work in preparation for the drilling activity that has been so affected by the rain. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if that is one of the reasons for them re-evaluating the mineralisation at Siana, and hopefully that will bear some positive intersections in the first lot of holes they are currently drilling. If you recall some of the last holes drilled that were not included within the resource estimation work yield some long intercepts at high grades, and hopefully they are following up on those intersections. It would be a great addition to the overall resource position at Siana.

I am still very hopeful of Mapawa coming up with the goods, and believe that at the very least its possible to get around 100 million tonnes grading about 0.8 - 1.0 gt Au, delivering around 2 - 3 million ozs, give or take a bit of course! And that would probably hold its own in developing a stand-alone new project. But there is lots of work to do at Mapawa, and also in surrounding locations where there might be another large mineralised system lurking.

As for the cash raise, well I think we all vented some degree of frustration at the time and I was actually vehemently opposed to the excessive cash raising at the time until I realised they had got themselves into a corner that they couldn't extricate themselves from easily without shareholder approval. Clearly they didn't work it out very well, and I assume it was due to the lack of interest by project financiers to extend credit easily. In the end they did the best that they could do, but raised about $10 million too much which is the bit of dilution that we can live with. At the time I recall CJ suggesting that some of the bigger funds groups, such as JPMorgan requiring certain equity before they would get interested to invest, but actually those groups don't seem to have stepped out aggressively to push the share price higher since getting the cheap shares, and now they are sitting waiting for Siana to come online I assume.

I guess we will see in the next couple of months with the new annual report due out, as to who is being paid what, I would sure be peeved if I saw the main players with significant salary increases bearing in mind the pain they have caused us all over the past 12 months!


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## beatle (13 July 2011)

Although I might be jumping at shadows, I get the feeling that RED is FINALLY trading with someone acting quite acquisitively!!! This might be a sign that the tide is turning, perhaps there is good news around the corner...(about bloody time, lol!)


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## jancha (13 July 2011)

beatle said:


> Although I might be jumping at shadows, I get the feeling that RED is FINALLY trading with someone acting quite acquisitively!!! This might be a sign that the tide is turning, perhaps there is good news around the corner...(about bloody time, lol!)




Tend to agree with you beatle the tide seems to have turned.
On board now for the long haul.  I think the potential profits far out weigh the risk. Unlike you beatle just a small holding of 300k.
I like the fact RED have left Mapawa alone while the uncertainty in the market hangs over head. Any hold ups or bad results would only drive REDs sp down.
Hang on. Would'nt be better to pick RED up at a cheaper price??
Any chartists thoughts on REDs direction from here..


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## Skip1jz (14 July 2011)

Have a look at the course of trades today for RED. There are alot of small trades only worth a few hundred dollars at 0.145, anything of significance is 0.14. What would be behind this?


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## mgm1a (14 July 2011)

Hi campers! Campers = sitters ? buy and holders? 

I was never a gold bug until I got into RED. ...time for you to check out Erste Group if you are wavering about gold. Here is an Austrian bank with half asset size of ANZ, 17m customers, 55 thousand staff....and obviously a couple of them got together to write a report ......significant that it gets published. See release http://www.erstegroup.com/en/Press/Press-Releases/Archive/2011/04.07.2011

If that wasn;t positive enough - I have skimmed through the download at the bottom of the page which has some great data and comments; e.g. mines will be needing /demanding a floor POG 1400 just to start thinking about doing anything.


The RED website now has the June shareholders - the %age seem to have got a little askew...anyway JP Morgan Chase are the net gainers of 52m shares - some movement off their Aust. Nominees but overall up 52m. This may be the DB block of shares? The others sitting tight.


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## Hurricane (14 July 2011)

As I mentioned on another site, RED seems to have de-coupled from the overall market today. Might be a sign of good things to come???

Then again (being a RED holder for a while now)  maybe not......SIGH


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## jancha (18 July 2011)

Got on board at the right time by the look of it. In at 12c and already a gain of 12k in a week. One 11mil sell off this morning may have something to do with it anyway i would have thought the likes of beatle & co would be crowing by now or maybe they're still lying unconsious on the floor under their desk.


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## wtang89 (18 July 2011)

Hello All,

It is nice to see beatle and AB are still around (and posting!). I still remain confused as to the cause of the fall in sp from 20c to 11c that occurred over the last few months, but took the chance to load up on a little more. it looks like RED is finally moving, (touched 16.5c today!) before dipping back to 15.5. But we are definitely heading in the right direction. I do like the news of the november start; it is alot later than I had wanted but at least the company has finally decided to let us, the small shareholders, in on a date. Assuming they deliver (on time), i would expect a steady rise to 20c in the upcoming weeks and months. This is assuming that nothing goes wrong, and positive drilling results that is due in a week or two. All in all, think i hibernated long enough ^.^.


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## beatle (19 July 2011)

Hi Jancha, actually I won't be crowing until they hit 35 cents! And that price probably won't happen until much later this year, at the time that the gold is finally starting to pour.

I was disappointed with the announcement of a Nov gold pour, I assumed it would be a month earlier than that, but i guess its better to be conservative and have it brought forward if anything, than be dragged back further as has been the case for the past few months. I won't be surprised though if they do actually beat that November forecast.

Hi WTang89, I guess the recent fall was a combination of a softening gold price, general market weakness, and the DBA backed shareholder who dumped many millions of RED onto the market. But that is now behind us and lets hope the gold price doesn't soften too much before the first gold pour, mind you even priced at A$100 less than current RED remains close to a 2 1/2 times below its NPV backed price!!! So there is plenty of upside potential. I really can't understand that seller of 2 million at 16 cents at the close today. If they have so many shares surely they would do their homework and know the fundamental value is way above current share price, and on a technical chartists interpretation the trend is UP!!!

Anyways, each to their own. Go UP RED.


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## dave1234 (19 July 2011)

jancha said:


> Got on board at the right time by the look of it. In at 12c



Likewise.


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## jancha (19 July 2011)

beatle said:


> Hi Jancha, actually I won't be crowing until they hit 35 cents! And that price probably won't happen until much later this year, at the time that the gold is finally starting to pour.
> 
> I was disappointed with the announcement of a Nov gold pour, I assumed it would be a month earlier than that, but i guess its better to be conservative and have it brought forward if anything, than be dragged back further as has been the case for the past few months. I won't be surprised though if they do actually beat that November forecast.
> 
> ...




Hi beatle. I dont see whats to understand about selling the 2mil at 16c. DBA had there reason. Debt could be the cause or maybe just selling on the uncertainty of USA woes. What would happen to the market if America credit rating falls? Physical gold would rise but what about companies like red?
I think your correct in saying that the gold pour will be earlier than November. They've seen the markets reaction in the past to delays so anything earlier will have the opposite effect. Lets hope so anyway and no early wet season!!
Also i was wondering what effect (if any) would another season rainfall of 4.5 metres have on their production rate?  Hope their infrastucture can cope with the flooding once it's in place..


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## beatle (19 July 2011)

Hi Jancha, another good post and I don't disagree with you entirely if the world economic scene goes through another GFC type crisis, certainly its not a good outlook even if gold is currently showing some strength. Lets hope it doesn't come to that.

Your point about another substantial wet season, and its timing is very relevant, as even in RED's latest report they refer to considerable rainfall in the "dry" season month of June. But the biggest delay with the project has been the process construction involving the pouring of foundations for the SAG mill and fortunately that is now behind us.

Going forward though, clearly flood mitigation was on the mind of RED prior to the construction phase (refer to the announcements around the last AGM time Nov 2010) when they gave an indication of access road flood mitigation strategy. 

As for mining, I hope RED do provide sufficient space on the pad for a surge pile of ROM ore (in stockpile) to cover any shortfalls in mining production caused by excessive rainfalls. I suggest its more an issue with regard to access than for the base of the pit as they have sufficient pumping capacity to maintain reasonably dry conditions in the base of the pit even during wet season conditions.

On the trading side, seems today there is someone slowly gnawing at the fodder at 16 cents, and I wouldn't mind betting that once that supply dries up they will move up higher to 16.5 cents, so if you have any thought of range trading maybe you should re-consider, I can't see it going much lower than 15.5 cents from now and likely to jump up when the 16.0 cent feedstock dries up!


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## mgm1a (21 July 2011)

Hi RED team - we are officially listed in America it seems ...

http://www.adrbnymellon.com/dr_profile.jsp?cusip=75657V109

Effective date 23 May. Really? No volume yet
The code is cute - they have abbreviated "RED will FLY" to "RDFLY"


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## Moit (21 July 2011)

Hi all RED club members.

Thanks for the great post mgm1a. I wont even begin to ask, where or how, you found that out.. But well done...

Though i am curious. I looked on CNBC and found it was an American listed company, but if listed on the 23 May, why no trade?? Are you sure its not a misprint, 23 of July?


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## Starcraftmazter (24 July 2011)

Why did they list in USA?


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## beatle (26 July 2011)

Hi Starcraftmazter, maybe they listed there because they want to buy a big chunk at once? I think she's going UP!


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## Moit (26 July 2011)

Hi all RED club members. That would have to be the shortest post we have ever received off you Beatle, lol. Can anyone shed any light on RED being listed in America?

Did anyone see the (4 958 828) bid to buy in this morning at 17 cents. I was praying to god it wasn't a dummy bid. But it turned out it was and pulled about 9.45am. Bugger... I said to my wife its probably Beatle topping up, lol.

Hopefully we are continuing in the right direction. Price of golds up, and expected Siana drill results back by months end. So maybe this week?? We are so close now. Hang in there guys.


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## beatle (26 July 2011)

Yes & yes Moit, I saw the Big bid first thing & thought it could be a bid put in by a large US insto/fund. I thought short & sweet is best. 

The quarterly is going to be interesting with drilling results hopefully.


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## Starcraftmazter (26 July 2011)

I could really use a fortnight to slap together extra funds, so I hope it doesn't go up much until the end of August. That being said, RED is refusing to do anything but go up at the moment.


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## beatle (28 July 2011)

Looks like  you will get your opportunity Starcraftmazter! If I was to read something into the share price it would be that there is not going to be much news that we don't already know, but I may be getting too cynical in my old age!

I would have thought that if the drilling at Siana had some very exciting numbers then it would have deserved its own ASX announcement and not coupled with the quarterly, and most companies to prefer for such separate announcements to be on their own news day. So from that I presume the drilling results are either not coming out or aren't anything to be excited about. 

Either way its ok as RED WILL go up, believe me (lol), just not sure when, IMO of course!


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## Starcraftmazter (28 July 2011)

Looks good so far, I'm hoping the market takes a dive on August 2nd as the US defaults and RBA raises rates.

That's quite a few things to hope for, but I have a little bit of optimism in my pessimism so it say


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## anderbond (29 July 2011)

Hi to members of the Red Club, well the quarterly has hit, and my reading of the consolidated news is very positive. I think the overall situation is now so solid that there is every opportunity to do some much needed local marketing. GE will be undertaking a number of presentations in Australia in the near future so this should help the SP immeasurably. The drill results from the North East envelope are not startling but consistent with the overall situation to my eyes, so eventually we should see an decent increase in resources. As the saying goes, every little bit helps! The whole focus rightfully is on getting into production. The new estimate on production cost is also great news as it places the company well and truly in the lower strata of produces.
Have a great weekend everyone! Forget the grand political theatre in the US and the Fourth (Economic) Reich in the Eurozone. Go RED!AB


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## fastbuck1 (29 July 2011)

pinched this from another site, read the bottom ,http://www.integramining.com.au/Portals/0/pdfs/Gold Sector Review_Jul2011 BGF.pdf


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## beatle (30 July 2011)

Hi All, and some good news with the progress starting to show clearly in the accompanying the pics to the quarterly report. And seems to me we will get some very positive announcements in coming weeks/months with a likely revision to the Mine Plan. This could not only add to total reserve ounces, but also an overall reduction in costs per ounce. 

Fastbuck that reference is great, and confirms the views that RED appears to be trading substantially below its peers, and clearly has a lot to do with the slow progress due to high rainfall in the critical months soon after commencing project development start up. All we need is for RED to finally meet the revised start up date of November for first gold pour and I think we are going to see RED price rocket! And I agree with AB's view, but of course we are all biased, lol!

I WILL be looking forward to catching with those that can come to the official mine opening, whenever that month occurs.


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## beatle (1 August 2011)

I have read elsewhere that my good poster friend Desjosie has finally sold out of RED. I was sad to read of that, and hope that he keeps an eye on RED in coming months. I might bore a lot of readers about my expectations for RED share price, but for me it sticks out that RED is one of the most discounted gold explorers come gold producer in the entire ASX market. 

I have no doubt that it will go up, and I believe that the investments made recently by RED directors in the company, plus the mega millions of shares held by Matthews, Baker Steel, JP Morgans etc are not sitting in RED without that same expectation. And the valuation, at the current share price suggests it could be an appreciable upgrade to share price when it moves.

I may have an emotional attachment to my RED shares as I have held shares for more than the name RED has been attached to the original Greenstone Resources, but my head is ruling my investment now with that valuation firmly indicating RED share price is way below where it can get to, and on a P/E basis supportive of a share price about 3 times as high as where it currently sits!


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## mardo (1 August 2011)

Hi Beatle,thought i had better make a post re the quarterly report.
I noticed that Red5 have employed Rohan Williams as (Group Exploration and Technical Manager).Is he the same Rohan Williams who is or was Manager Director of Avoca before their takover to form Alacer Gold?  If so this could provide a lot more heavy hitting in the management and exploration side of the business if their is still some discent re the AGM last year where their was clearly some disatisfaction.Just another point of view to ponder --Cheers.


.


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## beatle (3 August 2011)

Hi Mardo, its an interesting point re Rohan Williams, but I can't confirm that, I will ask someone in the coming days, but to be honest I would be surprised if it was the same geo. IF it was I would think it would be a very big change of pace for him, but to RED's benefit.

Seems the market is finally waking up that RED is a real bargain, although it seems that the coincidence of Digger and Dealers and an all-time high for US$gold price is helping RED on its way. I still stand by my view that RED could be worth close to 40 cents once in production, based on:
1. NPV valuation and relativity to its peer gold miners;
2. Relativity of PE's for a low cost, long life mining operation;
3. Development risk removed.

Go RED UPPP!


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## wtang89 (3 August 2011)

Hey All,

It is nice to see that many of you are still regularly posting. Now that the SP is back at the 17c mark, I would like to think the recent turmoil (SP drop from 22c to 11c) is all gone and dusted. With that said, i picked up a few new batches along the way and no complaints there ^^. 

What interestes me is that today, it is only 10:30 and we already see close to 7m in trade volume, a few buyers stacking up orders close to 6m at 16.5c. Suspicious as those order may be, it could just be punters waking up and warming up to the gold industry, Given how close we are to production and Gold prices at new high ($1661 high), it looks all positive for red. We saw overnight that Obama has finally convinced the Republicians to extend the debt ceiling but nonetheless could not prevent a 300 point drop on the dow jones. This is not to mention the hell Europe is going through presently. Normally i would be sceptical about the Sharemarket, but seeing as how cautious investors (and this is a growing number) is driving up gold prices and Red is fully funded (plus a little safety net). I like where we stand.

@Beatle; I admire your optimism regarding the 40c (and I hope you are right, oh how i wish you are right). 

From where i stand, I have no intentions of letting go of my RED shares for anything sub 25c, I may even accumulate some fall if the 6m buyer at 16.5 pulls his order and we see a drop to around 15c or below. But my rational self is telling me, if they were willing to build a mine and found it to be profitable at $1000US/ounce, now that gold has climbed 70%.....not only does that mean more reserves (higher costing gold is all of a sudden profitable) but also..higher margins!. 

One question that i have is how the Carbon tax affects Red (you may be the best source beatle). I would imagine, not greatly but still would add to Red's costs i would imagine. 

Sorry about the rant; have a quiet day with some time on my hands for a change ^^.


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## beatle (3 August 2011)

Hi and good to see your post Wtang89.

Just briefly on a couple of points:
1. Since the Siana project is outside of Australia there will be no imposition of carbon tax on RED's prime asset, thus it is not affected cost-wise.

2. My valuation (DCF NPV analysis) actually indicates a price of $0.43 if we are to assume current gold and silver price, plus a 5 year tax holiday for the project - all financial analyses I have seen assume no more than 4 year tax holiday (but RED has a 10 year production schedule and the tax concession is for the first half of a project). And that may be extended subject to the outcome of the current reassessment of reserves on a lower cutoff of gold that is underway.

I would also say that a premium to the valuation should occur as with any low cost, long life project once successful commissioning is confirmed.

I do follow RED with my heart but actually I follow it carefully using my financial analysis. Thus I still consider RED to be highly discounted at the prices recommended by Petra and BellDirect as target prices around 25 - 28 cents.


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## beatle (5 August 2011)

With the market coming off so badly it was a time for me to take up some more RED. At 14.5 cents its a lot cheaper than the 17.5 cents someone paid briefly yesterday, and my view yesterday when it hit that 17.5 cents was that I regretted not getting more on the way up! So long as the gold price/aussie dollar keeps in reasonably tandem RED is looking good - gold hit a record US$1,580/oz this morning with the aussie dollar getting belted. Thus more cash flow for RED if this relationship of gold and aussie holds.


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## fastbuck1 (6 August 2011)

beatle said:


> With the market coming off so badly it was a time for me to take up some more RED. At 14.5 cents its a lot cheaper than the 17.5 cents someone paid briefly yesterday, and my view yesterday when it hit that 17.5 cents was that I regretted not getting more on the way up! So long as the gold price/aussie dollar keeps in reasonably tandem RED is looking good - gold hit a record US$1,580/oz this morning with the aussie dollar getting belted. Thus more cash flow for RED if this relationship of gold and aussie holds.




beatle most likely red will be red again monday , my closing price prediction is .125 and tuesday will see a low of .115 with a close of .13.. i will place a bid for a small cautious topup on the .115 line........its very dissapointing to see market chaos so close to red's finish line never the less it's better now rather than the september-november pour, i will be more than happy to see .20 and then will concider to call it aday......cheers


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## Starcraftmazter (7 August 2011)

Mmmmmm time to empty my cash account


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## beatle (8 August 2011)

Hi Fastbuck, whilst I'm not able to speak authoritatively on the technicals of the RED chart as I'm not an expert, but I would say that I believe that RED remains being manipulated by various investors/traders etc, so I'm not convinced its going to those levels unless there is an absolute bloodbath in the USA tonight.

I prefer to continue focusing on the fundamentals of RED and its Siana gold project, and the price of gold. Surely the price of gold will only benefit by this downgrade of USA debt, so maybe the cash flow model assuming more of the same high gold prices in coming years is a reasonable assumption, thus my model valuation around 40 cents is more possible. If you want to know about the current aussie dollar gold price I refer you to:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=10Y

Today gold is the highest it has ever been in aussie dollars, of $1,614/oz!!!

In terms of the project, Siana I understand is now cruising towards the finish line, there has been no problems with putting together the mechano set once the heavy rains subdued, in addition the pit is close to being fully dewatered, with the last dregs to be used in the wet plant commissioning which will also deliver a few ounces of gold in the process. I understand that the resource re-evaluation could be interesting, on a positive outcome!

I am in the market again and buying at current levels, I dont think it will go any lower to be honest unless the USA market crashes, and I'm prepared to invest against that likelihood anyway.


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## beatle (8 August 2011)

Oh how an hour makes a difference in these volatile times!

RED is UPPPP, +10% and gold has shot up to a record US$1,693/oz = A$1,623/oz.

Apparently there is now growing talk of QE3 so gold is surely going to be supported heavily if that talk gets momentum and is instigated.


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## wtang89 (8 August 2011)

Dear All,

Joyous day!. On a day of asx dropping heavily at the start (close to 100) seems to have stablised with it being down around 20 at present.

Amidst the chaos, Red has quitely gone up 10%, with over 6m orders being accumulated in the last hour over 13-15.5c. It is a good sign I reckon (especially since i bought another batch on fridat at 14.5c). 

LIke Beatle has already mentioned, gold has a new high (again?) @ close to 1700US/oz. Sign of a promising time ahead. Shame you are leaving us at 20c Fastbuck. Only time will tell whether thats a good move


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## anderbond (8 August 2011)

Hi Beatle and others, some recovery evident in SP this morning which augurs well.
Talk of a QE3 needs to be tempered by the strong Chinese statements which indicate they will not buy any more US debt and criticism of the US political process.
Either way, gold should continue to shine.  AB


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## beatle (8 August 2011)

Great see your also adding some AB, in fact I got some both on Friday and this morning and I'm now more confident that once this current volatility dissipates RED will fly to higher levels, closer to its NPV valuation.

(And Fastbuck was being cheeky I reckon cos he is a hoarded and probaby wanted to buy some more at lower prices, I have no doubt he believes in a longer story - and if not then I'm sure he will revise his current view once it gets to 20 cents provided the gold price remains strongish).


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## wtang89 (8 August 2011)

Haha. I see. I guess it takes a hoarder to know one  ey Beatle?


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## fastbuck1 (8 August 2011)

Hi Folks, very happy i was wrong with my predictions, and very happy whith the  incorrect prediction i made a while back, quote "RED could be pouring gold @$1500" my revised prediction is now "RED could be pouring gold @$1800"....what will red's sp be at $1800???????


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## beatle (8 August 2011)

My apologies to Wtang89 for failing to recognise that you were the one I was competing with to buy shares in RED last Friday, lol, it was a mistake I made this morning after my excitement of seeing RED moving right against the trend of the general market this morning. But of course I know that AB is also right in there with RED shares too.

And yes Fastbuck, its exciting to see RED getting a lift due to the gold price rather than being dragged down with the general market! I'm disappointed that RED hasn't been able to do it of its own accord without the need to rely on an ever rising gold price. But I am convinced that once the market knows for sure that Siana is about to start produce gold then RED will get its re-rating, and I am sure that it won't stop at 20 cents so please keep that in mind in the coming months. I know its been so frustrating for us all with how things have been constantly delayed, and the wait for the price movement has almost blown us all away at times, but I would say a few things with respect to the coming months:
Siana is a standard gold operation, nothing different to anything you see elsewhere around the world. The engineering, the process, the rates of production are all stock standard, and the metallurgy of the ore is within the usual range to be expected. And furthermore the grade of the project is actually better than you see in most open cuts these days. All these factors support the low cash cost of production.
In addition, the gold reserves, currently estimated at 850,000 ounces of gold, has been determined by industry standard consultants and has been audited by a number of independent highly qualified consultants on behalf of various banks who each considered finance offerings to RED. Nothing was uncovered to doubt that the gold is there!
Therefore, having overcome the weather, we can expect a clear run towards commissioning in the coming weeks, and thus I would seriously not consider selling at anything close to 20 cents, that is a minor hurdle in the move towards a move further towards its true valuation, of course also depending upon the gold price at the time.


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## Starcraftmazter (9 August 2011)

Damn good movement today.

I am really hoping that the US Fed announces no QE3 (for now) overnight and gold drops and RED drops so I can buy some more as my money transfer completes tomorrow. Let us see whether my theory will hold true


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## beatle (9 August 2011)

Well seems we are in for a bit more shock and awe on the morning today, thanks to those most reputable of investors in the USA, led by a political system that clearly has had a lot to do with this recent stock market demise.

I'd guess Starcraftmazter that your money is best out of the market til the pain subsides in the market, then we will be at basement for real bargain hunting! It really does have the deja vu feeling of 2008 GFC, and Fastbuck can very quickly recall for us how the bargain hunting began in RED. I can't see that it will get back to that, but I'm not sure we will see any advancement for any stock today and until its clear to get back in the water! 

What's my strategy for RED? I won't sell a share, I am happy that the current valuation of the company will hold true once its producing gold, of course subject to whatever the gold price will be at that time. I do take a lot of comfort from a statement put out by JP Morgan, a substantial shareholder of RED, that they have moved up their expectation of US$ gold price by year end, from US$1,800 --> US$2,500!!! I would imagine with that view then RED in their portfolio is safe! Let's hope that's the majority view of all the bigger holders.

At the moment we are seeing a considerable disconnect between the aussie dollar with gold, due to the A$ being seen as a higher risk currency, lol - at the very time when S&P suggest that the USA debt has been downgraded down from AAA, whilst Australia remains AAA - work that out! Anyways, we are now almost at parity with the US$, thus in A$ the gold price is currently at an all-time high and that gives a RED valuation for Siana of way over 40 cents per share. But of course that is based on a time where sanity prevails, and this market is currently not sane!

I was watching the tv last night, and the USA trading, and one commentator made the comment with respect to commodities and asset classes, traders don't know where to put their money, so they are dumping into gold as the safe haven, clearly that is good for RED, but whether it will last for another 2 months till Siana gets into production is another question yet to be played out.

Good luck RED holders, and hang on, things will get back to sanity some time, not sure when though of course...


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## beatle (9 August 2011)

What a wild ride today, and great to see RED resilient and acting more like a gold producer than developer come producer! Regardless of whether the gold price keeps running up further or comes off the boil as the market turmoil slowly subsides (IF it subsides of course!), RED is a bargain basement price now, AND for offshore funds who have been active investors in RED its now effecitively around 9% cheaper due to the aussie dollar coming off by that amount in the past week!

RED has got a lot more run to come in the coming weeks IMO due to it moving closer to gold production.


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## Starcraftmazter (9 August 2011)

With the aussie dollar dropping below parity for a bit and all... couldn't resist today, bought a little more at .155

Will up my position by progressively more again next week and then again in 2 weeks time, depending on what happens of course.


The only thing that will happen to RED's profits if the world economic situation turns worse is increase them... it's all too tempting.


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## beatle (10 August 2011)

Yes Starcraftmazter, its been a great opportunity to get more cheap shares the past few days, and I topped up over the past week, but to be honest with the wild ride of yesterday I didn't buy any more, just watched the action over the day. But your point that RED will benefit if times are hard is clearly playing out so long as gold is seen as a safe haven. 

I would suggest also, that those who just follow technical trading might see the share price movements in the past as a key to the future direction will fail to realise that RED is now energised and moving towards commissioning and gold production - that is something RED has not encountered before, and on the current gold price RED is currently trading at a whopping discount! (Fastbuck, I hope you don't get out too soon, the real action is yet to happen IMO!).


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## beatle (11 August 2011)

Here we go again, is it GFC Mark2 Take 2 or is it Take 3? 

As usual I will hold tight with my RED shares, and use the logic:
1. RED is soon to produce gold. Gold continues to be the only significant asset class growing in value in this crazy environment.
2. Some of the main RED shareholders are US based and with the substantial reduction in $A/$US exchange rate RED shares are close to 10% cheaper (albeit RED share price has increased) to those overseas investors.
3. RED is likely to be announcing an even more attractive revised mine plan that will improve project economics even further. 

Good luck holders.


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## mr. jeff (11 August 2011)

Beatle and holders,
No need for concern, RED is moving well. 

Beatle, you are looking a bit like one of these:
	

		
			
		

		
	





But when there is no need! RED should hold over 15c and look at 21 before major baulks.

There is a lot of talk about RED around and about as a good stock for the gold price currently, so hopefully that helps a follow through to production with plenty of people climbing in currently with expectations of 25 - 35c in the next 12 months.

We will see.


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## beatle (11 August 2011)

Hi Mr Jeff and lol (but that pic won't open in my viewer for some reason).

I'm more frustrated about the impact this panicky market puts on the whole investment sector rather specifically on RED, especially since RED and other gold focused market companies are benefitting by the colossal price in gold price - its currently around US$1,805 and looking good, especially in aussie dollars whilst the A$ is weakening again.

I understand that both the Canadian and Brazilian gold companies went up overnight, so it stands to reason that the Aussie gold companies should also benefit and its so far been the case.

Certainly RED share price this morning is looking good . . .


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## ChrisJH (11 August 2011)

Was kind of hoping RED would drop today so I could buy some more, it's picking up the slack for the rest of my portfolio at the moment.


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## anderbond (11 August 2011)

Hi Guys, My grapevine tells that GE and CJ were in Sydneytown yesterday and Melbournetown today doing a large number of presentations, so interest should continue to build. AB


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## jancha (11 August 2011)

beatle said:


> Here we go again, is it GFC Mark2 Take 2 or is it Take 3?
> 
> As usual I will hold tight with my RED shares, and use the logic:
> 1. RED is soon to produce gold. Gold continues to be the only significant asset class growing in value in this crazy environment.
> ...




The main reason the Dow went down last night was due to the rumour French finances are in trouble and even Germany for that matter. Talk of down grading France to AA+. Only rumours tho but where do they start i wonder? Certainly good for the day traders & for RED holders However I hope the Deutsche Bank dont start having to sell more Red shares if the rumour turns out to be true. 
Beatle: When's the official opening of REDs pour? Thinking about going if there's free food & drinks. lol


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## beatle (11 August 2011)

Hi All, great to see all the posts and the confidence shown in market for RED. Seems to me that the trading is probably still affected by the big boys manipulating what appear lots of crosses - I think that they must pick a price they want as the VWAP for the day and then trade around that price for the day, both selling and buying. I guess it makes liquidity but gee it makes the movements up a real grind!

As for your questions Jancha, firstly of course the involvement of Deutchse Bank in RED - it was only a custodian of shares on behalf of some holder in the eyes of ASIC and Corporations Law until it lost that role in the eyes of ASIC and therefore is not in a position to declare an interest nor in a position to sell those shares previously seen to be a beneficial interest. Therefore put simply I don't think that it holds any shares in RED at this point, and can't sell any shares at this time.
With regard to the oficial mine opening, assumedly RED will hold the mine opening once the project is producing gold and in steady state mode, thus if we assume that commissioning commences in October and first gold pour is Nov, then probably the mine opening will be held in late Nov or early Dec. Whether this is an issue with the following Christmas period, so that timing might not suit RED management.

I have every intention of attending and hope that it will be in that late Nov - early Dec period, and I would love to catch up with those shareholders planning to travel from Oz. Also I see that this opportunity to see how the mine operating would be another benefit - I still believe that we will see RED trading at a premium to its underlying NPV value on Siana, thus expect it to be around 40 - 50 cents at this time (of course depending upon gold price at that time), thus being on minesite at the mine opening might provide some i.nsight to how much higher RED can go.


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## jancha (11 August 2011)

Thanks beatle but there was only the one question that i asked of you and that was as to REDs opening date. Interesting speculation on DB.


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## beatle (12 August 2011)

Hi Jancha, you are quite right about you asking one specific question re the mine opening. But you did put forward a general comment that appeared to be regarding DBA, and I do want to put that query out of your mind - DBA is no longer a beneficial holder of stock in RED, thus has no involvement in trading in RED (until it becomes a beneficial holder of course!).

I've watched the ongoing trading of RED at times in detail, and consider that the price is being manipulated with this algorithmic trading that's occurring. Although I only have circumstantial evidence and nothing to confirm it, from my observations it seems that the buyer and seller is on both sides of trading and effectively forces the trading into a band that it wants to achieve, and most of the buys and sells effectively cancel out the trading, so at the end of the day there is a minimal net position achieved by that trader - I would assume its a fund manager/insto that has invoked that trading style, of course this is just a theory I put forward.

I'm not criticising that style of trading as it enables liquidity in the daily trading of RED, and proves to me that the longer term movement of RED is UP!!! Toward I can't see it getting too far out of the 18.0 - 18.5 band, with a VWAP close to 18.5 cents.


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## jancha (12 August 2011)

Hi beatle and thanks again for your insight and views.
If possible would like you to do a comparision with NST & RED and see which one is of better value. NST is already producing 10,000z per month and earning an income. Currently has a sp of 54c with 300ml shares. RED not producing as yet and a sp of 18.5c with 800ml shares.
 RED has a greater sovereign risk but has no carbon tax. NST has no sovereign risk but the prospect of a carbon tax down the track.
Beatle you place a value on RED at 40c? What value would you place on NST?
I hold red


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## Skip1jz (12 August 2011)

jancha said:


> Hi beatle and thanks again for your insight and views.
> If possible would like you to do a comparision with NST & RED and see which one is of better value. NST is already producing 10,000z per month and earning an income. Currently has a sp of 54c with 300ml shares. RED not producing as yet and a sp of 18.5c with 800ml shares.
> RED has a greater sovereign risk but has no carbon tax. NST has no sovereign risk but the prospect of a carbon tax down the track.
> Beatle you place a value on RED at 40c? What value would you place on NST?
> I hold red




Jancha,

Your figures are a bit off there. RED has nearly 1300ml fully paid shares, NST has 305ml. NST production on average is around 7250 oz per month with double the cash costs than those estimated for Siana. Paulsens has only got around 3 - 4 years of life left in it at current rate, Siana has 10+ years @ 7250 oz per month.

NST seem to be burning up alot of their earnings on exploration. Their site costs are nearly $1000/oz and they have only 16m cash.


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## beatle (13 August 2011)

Hi Jancha, I haven't followed NST in detail other than knowing it had taken over from Intrepid at Paulsens, and that recent production is from underground operations. Just to be able to provide you with a more informed comment I reviewed the last operations quarterly to answer your question.

As Skip1jz has noted, the recent production suggests that the performance at Paulsens is more like about 7,000oz per month, and total site costs of production are around $920/oz. Gold production is similar to the start up production for Siana but soon thereafter Siana increases to around 8,000 ozs, then progressively moves towards 10,500 ozs per month after a couple of years. But Siana gold site costs are estimated to be well below that of Paulsens, less than half at below US$400/oz.

There are also a few other very significant points to understand with any comparision and valuation of the 2 operations:
Paulsens has an Indicated resource of around 140,000 oz (plus 250,000 ozs Ashburton), but this is not a reserve. The issue being to convert a resource into a reserve requires a mine plan and schedule to confirm its profitability. Therefore any DCF analysis of Paulsens is taking a view of the transfer of resources into reserve category. I'm not disputing that there are likely to be economically viable reserves at Paulsens (its producing profitably now) but how much converts is not well understood by the market (clearly the company will have a much better knowledge of that but I couldn't see it in my quick review). 
In the case of Siana, it has had to go through a considerable Bankable Feasibility Study which was required to provide a whole of mine life estimate of reserves. These reserves, totalling 853,000 ozs have been laid out in a production schedule so that it is easy to establish a DCF analysis. The rigours of that information has been vetted by a number of experts who have done so on behalf of various banking institutions. Thus the confidence on the economics of Siana are well laid out for all to see.

The other point to know is that Paulsens pays its way with a tax of 30% on profits, as per usual operations. Siana, in accordance with new developments in the Philippines doesn't pay tax for the first half of its operations, which at this point is determined to be 10 years (ie first 5 years tax free - although in RED's usual conservative manner they have quoted first 4 years tax free to date, I'm sure that will change once the development schedule is handed in to the Philippines authorities). This clearly has a considerable impact on the first years of production profitability not having to pay tax in any NPV valuation.

I hope that gives you some more information to consider with regard to Siana.


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## jancha (16 August 2011)

Thanks on that research beatle. Been looking at another Gold explorer of late (WWW). Dont hold but noticed after their announcement yesterday they had 30% spike. ATM i dont like the market for the short term and only feel confident looking at gold companies. RED does look the best however as you stated with it coming into production at low costs. The only small worry for me being sovereign risk.
Anyway would love to know if there's any extra gold in them dare hills 30km away at Mapawa.
Understandably RED has been low key on this and consentrating mainly on the up and running of Siana but at least there's that added bonus of another mine being close to their infrastructure. Lets hope.


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## beatle (16 August 2011)

Hi Jancha, good to hear from you and interested to hear of some of those companies that you are looking at within the gold sector. I guess with the recent over-heating of the gold price there may be some shares come off in share price so its a time to do the research rather than jump in without some due care.

With respect to RED I do believe that it sits in a place on its own. Its due for a significant re-rating once the Siana gold project comes on line, and with a fundamental valuation (based on DCF on base case feasibility study information) of more than double its current share price you can expect it to move upwards as commissioning and production moves along. Not long to wait now!

With regard to WWW its certainly got an interesting shareholder base, and sounds like it could go for a run IF the drill program proves that there is more than surficial gold around. But clearly it is a speccy and therefore you can't bet the house on it, whilst I have bet the house on RED (I want 2 houses, lol!).


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## Skip1jz (16 August 2011)

beatle,

Who owned the Siana mine before RED nad why was production stopped there?


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## Moit (17 August 2011)

Hi all RED club members.

Some interesting posts of late, great to see. I'm wondering where the expected Siana drill results are, that were due out end of last month. I expected them in the quarterly activities report, or if above average results an announcement on its own. We are due for our monthly Siana construction update, maybe their in there.

Jancha its interesting you noting other potential Goldie's, there all going to my watch lists, lol.

Anyhow RED holding up ok, though would like it to drop a little to collect some more. I still cant get over how Beatle jagged the drop at 14.5 the other week. He's an arsy bugger, lol. Keep up the good posts everyone. It makes for an interesting read. Not long now guys...


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## beatle (17 August 2011)

Hi Skip1jz, I can give you a little potted history of Siana prior to RED (through its wholly owned Greenstone Resources, its Philippines compliant corporation subsidiary).

Siana was mined by various Philippine entities as a high grade underground operation from mid 1930's to 1960, producing just under 600,000 ozs, then as an openpit from 1960 to 1991 producing another 300,000 ozs. It was hindered by lack of capital in its open pit phase which hampered the ore from being mined and processed efficiently, and those inefficiencies plus a low gold price finally caused its closure in 1991. 

That historic production is important from the point of view that mining is not new to the local population, and RED has further demonstrated its genuine intentions for the locals with community based assistance in the way of medical and dental services, the improvement of water quality and education services, as well as other community based programmes. There is very good community support for the company and its development at Siana as demonstrated by the environmental submissions getting unanimous support by the locals.


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## jancha (17 August 2011)

Hmmm someone got a bit restless. Big sell off of over 3ml shares bringing it back to 16.5c beatle i hope for your sake and mine that your potential homes dont turn into humpies!! lol


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## beatle (17 August 2011)

Lol Jancha, I know the feeling! (Its a bit like that joke, how do you become a millionaire - start by being a billionaire!).

I read on HC that the technical traders expect it to fill a gap left at 16.5 cents. I have no idea if that is the reason but if it is then perhaps we can assume the gap is filled, now get back up there please, lol.

Actually I have been in RED long enough to be insulated by the day to day trading (except to buy more at times of weakness, although I didn't buy any this morning at 16.5 as it caught me off guard!), and remain completely comfortable that we will see a significant re-rating in the coming months. Why don't I trade some of my shares - I'm too scared that the day I sell some I will miss the move and also I have a favourable tax position due to holding quite a few in my personal name too (aside from a few other accounts). Fundamentally RED is looking better now due to the gold price and slight reduction in ozzie dollar strength, and knowing the mechano set is steadily being put together and the mine almost drained of water, I feel very relaxed that the project will come on at least as good as the base case, but with the possibility of some elements such as reserves, costs being reduced due to a re-hash of the resource and optimisation based on higher gold price thus lower gold cut-off grade reporting into more resources.


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## mgm1a (18 August 2011)

Hi Red team

Thanks to Rabbit for alert on August Top 20 on website - more info than Top 10 as previosly

From what I can see most of the activity and silly games coming from the Merrill LYnch/JP MOrgan Aust nominees -down 60m in a month - can't figure out these nominee companies - they may be selling down to the declared substantial notice of 73m which means they may have another 50m to go

All in all very positive.

I notice that the 5 majors, Matthews,Baker Steel, JP MOrgan, Sprotts, Lujeta absolutely no movement since last big 3B notices in Feb. - they are holding tight.

No.6 Equity Trustees added 3m in last month

No. 7 David Teoh no movement since last ann rpt 39m but perhaps Seng Bee Teoh a relation with DTeoh?

Notice the pattern????...big players *not moving a single share*

Good to see previous Exec Technical Director Allen Govey also has not sold a single share since resigning MArch 2010

Some smaller moves below , Bell POtter( they did the research) +17m, Gary B Branch (google shows to be a GP from NSW- super fund)+9m, American (remember the american roadshow)Hedge Fund Focus +7m
Dropping since annual report David Cumming -7m


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## geezuguys (18 August 2011)

Hi all,

Evans and Co. Research Report on Red 5 website:  valuation of 46 cents...


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## beatle (19 August 2011)

Great research note Geezuguys, and FINALLY an analyst prepared to put out a valuation that is more in line with my thoughts! The DCF valuation of 46 cents per share is in the range of what I have been talking about in isolation for such a long time based on current gold price. It makes me stronger in my conviction that the analysts are simply too scared to dare put out a valuation so much higher than the actual share price, but this time Evans has shown it for what I consider fair value. Now all we need to gold price remain in a similar range and for RED to produce gold in November, then the re-rating will be on its way!

AND RED today has been GREEN for some of the trading session, in amongst a market full of red!


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## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

I have a question about this security, if someone could enlighten me; why is there optimism about a share that has never breached the 25.5 cent mark, yet is getting a 40+cent projection according to certain posters? The broker research I have is giving me a target of 27 cents in 12 months, so that can hardly be classed as rapid growth.

Is there something about this stock I am missing? I'v read the announcements, and have been analysing the charts. At the moment, there is an uptrend I will admit - but something about a company that has been on the ASX since '97 and not breached the 25 cent mark, is beyond me completely. 

I'm hoping someone here will enlighten me.


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## mgm1a (20 August 2011)

new trade i think you are focussing on the graph and price too much rather than the value and the quality of an investment in a market of extreme volatility.

this has been recently down to 11, 12, 13 so i think a target of 27 (quite easily in a year) would qualify as high growth. But I don't think many are looking for high growth

the company is about to produce after many years with parsimonious cost control, no surprises, huge stable top 10 support, fully funded (last at 17 so you know anywhere around here is OK), no hedges, good community and govt support, high grade low cost....gee...i feel so pessismistic..let me get out and put my money into something else that is subject to recessionary demand and... whos going to want this gold anyway? Right?

You can't just look at the number brokers target but their methodolgy and assumptions.

The Petra Capital 16/6 NPV is 27c using 1100 -1300

The Casimir capital NAV, is 17c using POG $US950 and 5% and they have a 27c target.

Bell POtter 29 July have target 25c using 1225-1500 range

My NPV model come out at 27c, using POG1300 flat over 11 years - i am just about to revise it.

To appreciate the effect of rising POG consider that the Evan PArtners using 1700+ comes up with 46c and cash balance of $466m in 4 years.

Current EV is around $70m - truly silly for a near term producer of gold. RED offers high safety margin which eventually attract a premium.

good luck


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## NewTrade (20 August 2011)

mgm1a said:


> new trade i think you are focussing on the graph and price too much rather than the value and the quality of an investment in a market of extreme volatility.
> 
> this has been recently down to 11, 12, 13 so i think a target of 27 (quite easily in a year) would qualify as high growth. But I don't think many are looking for high growth
> 
> ...





Like I said, 27c is reasonable. It will be their all time high, but still reasonable. I am trying to find whether or not RED5 has had a large operation like this before. Keep in mind this company has been on since '97, and it is no Mt Isa Metals. MET (Mt Isa Metals) were sitting on 3c, and a jump to 90c in a year. That is growth, and rapid. A 17c stock getting a projection of 27c by brokers, and 47c by members, that has never breached 25c is a little worrying. This company is not new, it has been around for a long time. 

The level of optimism in this thread is overwhelming. In the November gold pour, if we reach 27c, that is a reasonable target, but not heavy growth.

So if someone is able to tell me a justifyable reason as to why this company will be re-evaluated at 40+c, then I am all ears.

Again, I admit there is a daily up-trend, but nothing that I can see is going to breach the resistance. My analyzation is a mix of charts, fundamentals and broker research. If I am missing something, please tell me, because this stock is getting such a good review, with no justifyable reason or any history to back it up.

However, the only _good_ reasoning I can see here is the POG projections, if steady until November and onwards (providing currency is still shot), than a 1700+ range and target of 47c MAY be viable, perhaps!

I'll admit, I am keen on the current projected target of 25c, but not higher. I am increasing my own holdings for a nice packet at EOY11 - I don't se it reaching 47c in December. If I am able to be convinced and my confidence rises. I may hold until post EOY11, and perhaps re-evaluate my position first/second quarter 2012.


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## jancha (20 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> Like I said, 27c is reasonable. It will be their all time high, but still reasonable. I am trying to find whether or not RED5 has had a large operation like this before. Keep in mind this company has been on since '97, and it is no Mt Isa Metals. MET (Mt Isa Metals) were sitting on 3c, and a jump to 90c in a year. That is growth, and rapid. A 17c stock getting a projection of 27c by brokers, and 47c by members, that has never breached 25c is a little worrying. This company is not new, it has been around for a long time.
> 
> The level of optimism in this thread is overwhelming. In the November gold pour, if we reach 27c, that is a reasonable target, but not heavy growth.
> 
> ...




If you find RED worrying could you please enlighten me on what other companies on the ASX have the potential to have a 100% gain in the next few months (without it being a massive gamble). Or better still another MET??  The only speculative part of RED is how much more deposits do they have in the ground? And i cant see gold going down in a hurry so where's the risk? Companies that jump from 3c to 90c in a year? Wow let me know when the next one comes along preferablely before it gets to 90c tho. I'd be happy with a 100% gain and i'd be confident to say that most other people would be to:eek7. Boy some people are hard to please.


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## NewTrade (20 August 2011)

jancha said:


> If you find RED worrying could you please enlighten me on what other companies on the ASX have the potential to have a 100% gain in the next few months (without it being a massive gamble). Or better still another MET??  The only speculative part of RED is how much more deposits do they have in the ground? And i cant see gold going down in a hurry so where's the risk? Companies that jump from 3c to 90c in a year? Wow let me know when the next one comes along preferablely before it gets to 90c tho. I'd be happy with a 100% gain and i'd be confident to say that most other people would be to:eek7. Boy some people are hard to please.




The only worrying part is the projections. I have no doubt that RED will gain post production. But to gain up to 47c, the price of Gold would have to hold out, or increase, and _then_ and only _then_, will further gains come about.

I found MET, by searching small caps. I didn't have a clue they would rise to that price, but when I had to pull my $1000 away because I was desperate for cash - and a year later I saw I would have made a 28K profit, I almost cried.

The only thing I can see here is that after production, according to projections, a 27c price is viable. But is this really heavy growth? 25c is the barrier, and since '97 they have not pushed it. Considering the price of gold, perhaps 100% on the 17c mark _may_ be viable, but to hit a target of almost 50c, in my opinion it is wishful.


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## fastbuck1 (20 August 2011)

.27 is a market capp of only 320 000 000 , for a debt free gold miner pumping out aprox 6- 7000 oz per month= $9 800 000  the market capp should be $750 000 000 , check out mml just up the road from siana market capp is over a billion$ ....oh its share price used to be only .30 prior to production now its $7+, mml production cost is only $250 oz  against red's $400 ....its food for thought....i believe those that are running red are ex normanby.... cheers


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## NewTrade (20 August 2011)

fastbuck1 said:


> .27 is a market capp of only 320 000 000 , for a debt free gold miner pumping out aprox 6- 7000 oz per month= $9 800 000  the market capp should be $750 000 000 , check out mml just up the road from siana market capp is over a billion$ ....oh its share price used to be only .30 prior to production now its $7+, mml production cost is only $250 oz  against red's $400 ....its food for thought....i believe those that are running red are ex normanby.... cheers




Fair enough. I wil take this into consideration - it does make sense.

Does anyone believe this up trend will continue? My entry point is at 17.4c and am thinking of increasing my holdings before production starts.


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## beatle (21 August 2011)

NewTrade, I suggest Mgm1a, Fastbuck, Jancha have provided you with a number of facts that support a share price substantially higher than what it currently is. How high it actually rises depends chiefly on 3 factors:
1. The price of gold in coming months,
2. General market conditions;
3. How successful the commissioning is at Siana. 
If it produces gold at a rate & cost along the lines forecast in base case modeling then it will move appreciably higher than present. And typically gold equities trade ABOVE NPV estimates (refer to MML witha market cap approaching $1.5 billion).

I suggest your argument that it hasn't been at 27 cents before so therefore how can it rise above 27 cents is fallacious-did MET or MML move anywhere near those high points before production was imminent?


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## NewTrade (21 August 2011)

beatle said:


> NewTrade, I suggest Mgm1a, Fastbuck, Jancha have provided you with a number of facts that support a share price substantially higher than what it currently is. How high it actually rises depends chiefly on 3 factors:
> 1. The price of gold in coming months,
> 2. General market conditions;
> 3. How successful the commissioning is at Siana.
> ...




No they did not move towards those high's, they were on a steady rise but then a sharp rise to the peak of the up-trend - check out the charts. I bought in 09 when it was 0.03.

Now I do respect your counter argument however I don't believe I have surcumb to any fallacy. It is merely making light of historical data which when analysing a stock is extremely important. But the arguments put forward are strong and I have taken them into consideration. I do have holdings in RED and am waiting to top up while the price remains at this level - however it may be viable to wait until the next trough to signal the ongoing trend before topping up. 

I tried to post a graph of my entry but couldn't make a go of it.


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## investorpaul (21 August 2011)

> Like I said, 27c is reasonable. It will be their all time high, but still reasonable. I am trying to find whether or not RED5 has had a large operation like this before.




New Trade with all due respect you do seem a little out of your depth (I mean this in the best possible way). We are talking about a speculative resource stock so previous prices are largely irrelevant as it is all about future prospects. I am sure if you posted some analysis and questions regarding your thoughts and reasons behind the SP other posters would be happy to discuss what you have found.

I don't follow or invest in RED myself but just because a share has never met a certain level doesnt mean anything. There are countless shares that have hung around for years doing nothing and then management changes or they find an asset and develop it. (again see NST for example).

Also in the resource sector it takes years to move from exploration to production.



> The level of optimism in this thread is overwhelming. In the November gold pour, if we reach 27c, that is a reasonable target, but not heavy growth.




Resource companys normally re-rate in a number of steps. 

If the company starts out as an explorer they will normally jump in price if they discover something good.

The SP then typically falls as traders move out of the stock as it has had its run for the time being.

The SP could then jump again when a JORC estimate is finally put together.

The SP then drops back as traders leave it again and people realise it takes money to develop a mine.

A pre-lim feaso is then conducted to run some basic numbers. If the company reports that it looks ok the SP will prob jump again.

Then it will dropback down as traders leave it and investors wait for a "bankable feasability study".

When this is released if it confirms that a mine can be profitably developed the SP may run again.

Then it will drop back because developing a mine costs a shed load of money and approvals need to be granted.

The SP may then run and re-trace every now and then based on the issuing of mining licences or achievement of construction/production targets.

Finally once the mine is in production there will be a re-rate in the SP as they have finally achieved what they wanted (i.e a mine that is operating).

The real re-rating will normally come 3, 6, 9 months odd down the track when they prove that not only can they run a mine but that they can meet their production targets, revenue and profitabilty forecasts.

Now that is a basic breakdown but you will see that in the early days traders move in and out based on certain announcements. As the stock moves closer to production more traders jump on board.

The reason why it can run and re-trace so much is because the day traders get ahold of it to make short term gains and as an explorer the company will prob be worth $20-$50m. To develop a mine will cost many times their market cap and as a result new shares will be issued diluting existing holders. Obviously some holders will sell in anticipation of this. 



> Again, I admit there is a daily up-trend, but nothing that I can see is going to breach the resistance. My analyzation is a mix of charts, fundamentals and broker research. If I am missing something, please tell me, because this stock is getting such a good review, with no justifyable reason or any history to back it up.




If you are looking at fundamentals you need to run some numbers on:

Cap-ex
Op-ex
Production costs
Rate of production
Gold Price
Mine life

and arrive at a net cash flow position. Then discount it back to a present value and you will have your answer



> However, the only _good_ reasoning I can see here is the POG projections, if steady until November and onwards (providing currency is still shot), than a 1700+ range and target of 47c MAY be viable, perhaps!




Gold is quoted in USD so if the AUD goes down the price of gold in AUD would actually go up. 

Yet if the USD goes up this normally means Investors are looking for "safe havens" which also includes Gold (esp at the moment).

As a result Australian mines are somewhat de-risked from currency fluctuations at this point in time (IMO)




> If I am able to be convinced and my confidence rises. I may hold until post EOY11, and perhaps re-evaluate my position first/second quarter 2012.




I mean this in a nice way (so please dont take it wrong) but do your own detailed research. You will be much happier when you sleep at night and you will be able to manage your risk better. 

Also don't forget everyone has different time frames and targets. One poster may then 47cents is achievable by the end of the year. Another may think some time next year is more realistic. Also if you understand the company announcements and potential drives in the SP you will be able to re-evaluate your position based on each announcement the company makes.


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## NewTrade (21 August 2011)

investorpaul said:


> New Trade with all due respect you do seem a little out of your depth (I mean this in the best possible way). We are talking about a speculative resource stock so previous prices are largely irrelevant as it is all about future prospects. I am sure if you posted some analysis and questions regarding your thoughts and reasons behind the SP other posters would be happy to discuss what you have found.
> 
> I don't follow or invest in RED myself but just because a share has never met a certain level doesnt mean anything. There are countless shares that have hung around for years doing nothing and then management changes or they find an asset and develop it. (again see NST for example).
> 
> ...




Thank you kindly for your input - it was enlightening. Perhaps I was looking at this stock from a flawed POV.

I have done my research on it as best I can and can see projection for the end of the year to be rather promising. The fact is this company has the cash on hand, debt free, to complete its mining setup, so that is one of the main attractions. also, it is de-risked for the reasons you posted earlier, as well as not being eligable for a carbon tax, if it gets pushed.

The information I was after was not research, but rather opinion based on fact. My research only took me so far but I wanted input from a long time holder and analyst.

Again, thanks for the input, I will take it into consideration.


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## investorpaul (21 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> The fact is this company has the cash on hand, debt free, to complete its mining setup, so that is one of the main attractions. also, it is de-risked for the reasons you posted earlier, as well as not being eligable for a carbon tax, if it gets pushed.




Definately a positive to see cash on hand and no debt. This is the kind of opportunity I look for so perhap I might take a closer look after all.


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## mr. jeff (21 August 2011)

Good to see some debate.
I agree to an extent that RED has been all over the shop in the past. 
I have been watching for about 2 years before I even bought in. 
I think the main facts are fair, but if they produce 7-9 kOz/month then in this market that equates to market cap of approx. $400M, but discounted by the air-travel gives $ 330 - 350M at this stage before there are further production development plans or further solid drill results. I base this on seeing the (in my view wrong) way the market is valuing other producers of similar size at this time.
Having exposure to a near term producer of gold is probably the most, best and only risk worth taking in this market unless you are shorting.
 Top ups are a good idea so long as you are comfortable with the market and are not averaging down. 
Cheers and good luck.


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## NewTrade (21 August 2011)

investorpaul said:


> Definately a positive to see cash on hand and no debt. This is the kind of opportunity I look for so perhap I might take a closer look after all.




Paul,

Apparently - they had a surplus of 85m, debt free, with a cost of setup at around 35m. Though that number of 85m would be lower at this time as I believe that report was old.

I can see that this market condition has not swayed this stock a great deal. It actaully reached a peak on the 3-4th Aug, dropped on the 5th Aug crash but came back to form a trough and peak again on the 12th. Fridays point loss on the ASX saw the stock drop, but only very slightly into what I believe is yet another trough. Check out the daily chart from July 1st onwards, and you will see what I mean.

Jeff; I do enjoy debating. Whether it is to push a confident disposition I have or to probe for more information. The cost of production for this companys gold is slightly higher than most, which is a worry - but not in a great deal. The fact is the gold prices at the moment are on an uptrend. Still, a little less COG wouldn't go astray.


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## fastbuck1 (21 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> Paul,
> 
> Apparently - they had a surplus of 85m, debt free, with a cost of setup at around 35m. Though that number of 85m would be lower at this time as I believe that report was old.
> 
> ...




The cost of production is actually quite low compared to others $350-$400 compared with $650-$800 for most ozy minersnot to mention they have to pay tax and maybe carbon tax , remember red has a 5 year tax free hoilday, the profit red will make is huge, once in production the sp should go up every month with about 10 mil in cash going in the kitty....i dont have the house on red but i do have the block of land on it, red is getting more exciting by the day......and i continue to top up every fortnight.....good luck to all....


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## NewTrade (21 August 2011)

fastbuck1 said:


> The cost of production is actually quite low compared to others $350-$400 compared with $650-$800 for most ozy minersnot to mention they have to pay tax and maybe carbon tax , remember red has a 5 year tax free hoilday, the profit red will make is huge, once in production the sp should go up every month with about 10 mil in cash going in the kitty....i dont have the house on red but i do have the block of land on it, red is getting more exciting by the day......and i continue to top up every fortnight.....good luck to all....




I see your confidence is at high considering the bet you have placed.

I am hoping to have allocated a fair amount into RED and hoping my other ventures turn a profit so I can reinvest them for growth. I am more a mid/long investor - and there is, in my view, a rather strong prospect of intermediate gains from the 16.5c mark onwards - plus trend and indicators signaling a decent entry.

I hope you all make an absolute fortune and retire on a sunny beach  hehehe...


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## fastbuck1 (21 August 2011)

Also what needs to be concidered is the gold stock frenzy that happened in the early 80s when gold hit the $800's any thing that had the slite wiff of gold went up 10 fold+, i'm not saying its going to happen this time round but the early signs are there, when the average joe on the street whom dos'nt invest or own a single share starts to talk about the price of gold then it time to take a position, my own thinking is when gold hits $2000  the frenzy and hype will start ,no one will want to miss out ,  the perfect storm is developing for red, 3 months from production and a possible $2000 gold price , red's share price could reach dizzy hights that none of us could even imagine....


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## NewTrade (21 August 2011)

fastbuck1 said:


> Also what needs to be concidered is the gold stock frenzy that happened in the early 80s when gold hit the $800's any thing that had the slite wiff of gold went up 10 fold+, i'm not saying its going to happen this time round but the early signs are there, when the average joe on the street whom dos'nt invest or own a single share starts to talk about the price of gold then it time to take a position, my own thinking is when gold hits $2000  the frenzy and hype will start ,no one will want to miss out ,  the perfect storm is developing for red, 3 months from production and a possible $2000 gold price , red's share price could reach dizzy hights that none of us could even imagine....





What sort of price you projecting? I realize it is an exaggerated approximate, but I am curious to know what you consider the stock’s value to be if gold reaches its 2K point - which I can see happening IMO...


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## fastbuck1 (21 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> What sort of price you projecting? I realize it is an exaggerated approximate, but I am curious to know what you consider the stock’s value to be if gold reaches its 2K point - which I can see happening IMO...




who knows but here is a small example   http://www.financialsensearchive.com/editorials/casey/2005/1214.html


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## NewTrade (21 August 2011)

fastbuck1 said:


> who knows but here is a small example   http://www.financialsensearchive.com/editorials/casey/2005/1214.html




Nice example - great article.

Wouldn't it be nice, eh? Anyway, let's see what happens with RED - htough I do think now, in light of new evidence, the payoff should be higher than 27c. I wonder what kind of deposit they have - considering it has been mined before, only now going back in with new tech.

I hope their strike is extremely profitable.


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## Dougs Antiques (21 August 2011)

Ive been watching RED for the last 12 months and I havent seen anything that really has made me think that I should buy in.
There reports are few and far between (Intrest needs regular posative reports), to be honest it is trading at about the same as 12 months ago with the odd bounce to 20 or so cents and looking like being interesting ,then to see it receed back to 17 or so cents.
To be honest RED needs to break 21 cents before most will even look at it.
In saying this I hope it does and I will jump on the train.
It does seem to be holding up through recent downtrends but the question is how long can it hold up for?
Early this coming week will be a test.
A break of 21 cents and I will consider RED but not before.


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## NewTrade (21 August 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> Ive been watching RED for the last 12 months and I havent seen anything that really has made me think that I should buy in.
> There reports are few and far between (Intrest needs regular posative reports), to be honest it is trading at about the same as 12 months ago with the odd bounce to 20 or so cents and looking like being interesting ,then to see it receed back to 17 or so cents.
> To be honest RED needs to break 21 cents before most will even look at it.
> In saying this I hope it does and I will jump on the train.
> ...




The stock took a hit on the fifth, which is no suprise - though mildly effected by Fridays loss.

Unfortunately, I think Monday is going to be a bloodbath. This may signal good buying oppertunities, but for those of us with current holdings - my sympathies. Still, I want to increase my holdings in RED before the price hikes back up.


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## jancha (21 August 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> Ive been watching RED for the last 12 months and I havent seen anything that really has made me think that I should buy in.
> There reports are few and far between (Intrest needs regular posative reports), to be honest it is trading at about the same as 12 months ago with the odd bounce to 20 or so cents and looking like being interesting ,then to see it receed back to 17 or so cents.
> To be honest RED needs to break 21 cents before most will even look at it.
> In saying this I hope it does and I will jump on the train.
> ...




I can see where your coming from Doug. Very similar to what they've been saying on Wall street in regards to buying Gold. 
ont buy if you have'nt got it and dont sell if you've got it. Work that one out.
Anyway im in at average of 12.5c so i'm quite content sitting on this one the way the market is.


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## beatle (22 August 2011)

Hi All RED Followers, great to see all the new contributors on the RED thread! And WOW you managed to stir stacks of posts with your first post NewTrade! (Great to see some interesting contributions from al)l.

I would like to confirm that the cash balance that RED is expected to have after completion of capital works is around $16 million and debt free although it does have a debt facility available, undrawn of $8 million (RED management are conservative and at the time of start up construction wanted to have it available in case of overruns - now its most likely not required with most big ticket capex items already covered till completion).

In terms of your question of valuations around a gold price of $2,000 NewTrade, my view is that with gold moving up steeply at the moment its probably entering bubble territory so best not to consider valuations that are unlikely to hold! Even if there is a pullback to US$1,500 RED remains considerably below the valuation price of high 30+ cents range on a DCF valuation!

And also I agree with Fastbuck that RED is in fact expected to be a lowish cash cost gold producer and therefore will be an attractive investment if the gold price comes off appreciably!


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## NewTrade (22 August 2011)

I'm glad I got such quick responses to my arguments - I was hoping to top up this afternoon but Wpac/NAB glitches didn't alow my transfer 

I have holdings in MQG at the moment which am waiting to exit - does not look good for an exit point today so I gues my top-up will have to wait a day.

Jancha - I wish I got in at 12.5c - I didn't really find out about the company until a short time ago. Still, I am sure 17c is still a good entry considering the forcast.


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## Moit (22 August 2011)

Hi all RED club members. Ive really got nothing to report, only to comment on recent events and posts. Its been an interesting weeking, as far as commentary is concerned.

New trade, how are you mate. (You certainly Kicked the hornets nest over the weekend). I mean that in a nice way... We as RED club members are very optimistic and passionate about our RED. WE have members that have stuck with RED for thirteen odd years, through and thin and are dedicated in to what RED are about achieve.

RED is about to Shine. I don't have to point out Reports, charts, announcements, analysts or anything. In the simplest form, its written the wall. It has too much going for it. (The price of gold, WOW).

Great stuff from all. Mgmla, Jancha, Fastbuck1, and Beatle. 

Paul i loved your input mate. It sounds like you know your stuff. I just hope you pop over and join us some time soon. I don't think you'll regret it...

 Fastbuck, i had to laugh. Beatle has the house on it, you have the block of land, I got the brand new four wheel drive, and were not talking the Mahindra, lol. But still increasing monthly. I'm hoping i still have enough time to bet my Block. Good research on gold. I hope its not a bubble and continues to grow. Theres only so much to be mined.. Well until the technology improves anyway. I just wish the report said 2011 instead of 2005...

Doug you seem pretty wrapped in RED, why wait till 21 cents. Get in now, and reap them rewards. There certainly going to be healthier if you invest now, rather then later.

Well I'm about to buy more and my average is still  under 14, wish it was 12.5 but topped up when i shouldn't have... Who's to complain. Bring on that commissioning date, and lets watch RED sour... Cheers Moit


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## investorpaul (22 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> I'm glad I got such quick responses to my arguments - I was hoping to top up this afternoon but Wpac/NAB glitches didn't alow my transfer
> 
> I have holdings in MQG at the moment which am waiting to exit - does not look good for an exit point today so I gues my top-up will have to wait a day.
> 
> Jancha - I wish I got in at 12.5c - I didn't really find out about the company until a short time ago. Still, I am sure 17c is still a good entry considering the forcast.




Hi Newtrade

Settlement is T-3 days so you could have bought your shares today. Your broker wont "settle" the trade for another 3 days.

If you are looking to exit MQG tomorrow might be an alright day (fingers crossed). FTSE is up almost 2% so hopefully we see some green on the DOW too.

Also I know the feeling about missing a price. I'm doing more research on NST and wish I knew more about it last  year when it was at 5cents, rather than the 55c its at now.


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## NewTrade (22 August 2011)

investorpaul said:


> Hi Newtrade
> 
> Settlement is T-3 days so you could have bought your shares today. Your broker wont "settle" the trade for another 3 days.
> 
> ...




I am only able to invest whatever amount I choose to invest based on what has been deposited into an account. I don't have that 10K limit anymore that Westpac offered me - though now that I am a little more serious about trading I wish I had it.

That is good to hear about the FTSE; lets hope it has a nice influence here and gets our XAO back in shape


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## beatle (23 August 2011)

NewTrade, you may or may not know it but I'm exceedingly bullish RED, and (unfortunately) have been for years. I am very confident that they will be trading at much higher levels than now once in production. BUT there is no share that moves up without some sort of retracement through its journey and therefore you are very wise to only invest in shares with the money you have, not borrowed money IMO. If for any reason there is some bad timing with your investing you will be right in the poo if the borrowed funds can't be repaid on time.

But back to RED. Its clear that all gold equities (and by that I refer to those companies either producing gold or due to produce gold, not plain gold explorers which have a mind of their own!) have not made the same moves upwards based on the colossal move upwards by gold. I'm sure that disconnect relates to the fact that gold's move has got ahead of itself and unlikely to be sustained although obviously with the looming potential for QE3 around the corner plus indecisiveness by the euro community we can enjoy the upward move in gold, but not get full benefits of that in share price appreciation in RED at this time. We still have to be patient for RED to one more thing:
PROVE they can produce gold!

I'm also excited about the possibility that RED will announce some changes in the mine plan in the coming weeks with the prospect of a slight increase in gold resource/reserve plus increased gold production over the 10 odd years of gold production.

And then there is also Mapawa exploration, and Madja, and etc ...


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## investorpaul (23 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> I am only able to invest whatever amount I choose to invest based on what has been deposited into an account. I don't have that 10K limit anymore that Westpac offered me - though now that I am a little more serious about trading I wish I had it.
> 
> That is good to hear about the FTSE; lets hope it has a nice influence here and gets our XAO back in shape




Hi NewTrade

I'm not sure I follow. Do you have a margin loan account or something?

When I opened my commsec account (with no past trading experience) i could buy whatever I wanted with no funds in the account.

I normally place a buy order wait for it to be executed and then transfer funds from a high interest account I have with another bank to settle the trade.

Maybe Westpac is different but I never knew a broker required you to have the funds in the account prior to settlement. 

I could understand if you just opened a new acc and wanted to buy a $1m worth. But I would have thought up to $10-20,0000 would have been no problem


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## jancha (23 August 2011)

beatle said:


> NewTrade, you may or may not know it but I'm exceedingly bullish RED, and (unfortunately) have been for years. I am very confident that they will be trading at much higher levels than now once in production. BUT there is no share that moves up without some sort of retracement through its journey and therefore you are very wise to only invest in shares with the money you have, not borrowed money IMO. If for any reason there is some bad timing with your investing you will be right in the poo if the borrowed funds can't be repaid on time.
> 
> But back to RED. Its clear that all gold equities (and by that I refer to those companies either producing gold or due to produce gold, not plain gold explorers which have a mind of their own!) have not made the same moves upwards based on the colossal move upwards by gold. I'm sure that disconnect relates to the fact that gold's move has got ahead of itself and unlikely to be sustained although obviously with the looming potential for QE3 around the corner plus indecisiveness by the euro community we can enjoy the upward move in gold, but not get full benefits of that in share price appreciation in RED at this time. We still have to be patient for RED to one more thing:
> PROVE they can produce gold!
> ...




And then there's management once RED's up and running. Hopefully they'll make the right decisions as RED progresses along the way. How often do you see a good company with great prospects go down the tube? I've been stung badly in the past with the likes of OZ Minerals which i think has a class action against them at present. RED i hope on the other hand will look after their loyal share holders


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## NewTrade (23 August 2011)

investorpaul said:


> Hi NewTrade
> 
> I'm not sure I follow. Do you have a margin loan account or something?
> 
> ...




Yeah I don't have that facility. I am with Belldirect - and am only able to invest amounts I elect by bank deposit. I used to have such a facility with Westpac, but was stopped by Westpac for a couple of reasons I don't want to get into here.

I will be extremely dissapointed if something happens to RED, and it is in the realm of possibility - still I don't know exactly what issues may com about. Lets hope for a nice up trend till November followed by  a growth spurt.

Meanwhile, Gold cracks 1900/oz... Wow - Bubble 

RED Pushing 19c at the moment - US markets ended slightly higher, along with Euro markets, and gold price up. Charts are continuing the uptrend - rather good looking imo.


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## Moit (23 August 2011)

And up she goes !!! Darn it, missed it again.


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## NewTrade (23 August 2011)

Moit said:


> And up she goes !!! Darn it, missed it again.




There is a lot of bying activity today I just saw 19.5c and not back to 19. I suppose it is still a good time to top it - I have already with average entry at 18c. I don't think these little price movements are much considering projections and company prospects.


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## Moit (23 August 2011)

Yeah i agree New Trade, great volume, price of gold hitting new highs.  It seems like the big boys are jumping on board. Funny that, the second it starts to move. in they come.

I just hope we can break that previous resistance level of 22.5 c, when the time comes of course. And when it does, Sky's the limit.

Go RED Go !!


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## NewTrade (23 August 2011)

Moit said:


> Yeah i agree New Trade, great volume, price of gold hitting new highs.  It seems like the big boys are jumping on board. Funny that, the second it starts to move. in they come.
> 
> I just hope we can break that previous resistance level of 22.5 c, when the time comes of course. And when it does, Sky's the limit.
> 
> Go RED Go !!




I'd say there are some big boys in already who are speculating - but it makes sense that others would buy in volumes when the trend looks good. This may be just for short term gains though as the only reason I can see the price jump today is the variables that we saw last night. I wish I had my holdings at least at 16.5 but alas my average is 18.

We have a triple top at the moment which is rather nice for the eye.

I also just noticed, the demand has increased quite severely. 24m buy 8m sell. Volume has already broken the moving average and we are trading well above the MA as well...


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## Skip1jz (23 August 2011)

Does anyone see RED 5 as a potential takeover target for Medusa Mining?


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## beatle (24 August 2011)

Skip1jz said:


> Does anyone see RED 5 as a potential takeover target for Medusa Mining?




Hi Skip1jz, and of course you are quite right, that a merging of MML and RED's assets via a takeover of RED by MML makes a lot of sense, from the point of view that MML would become a substantially much bigger company, with considerably enhanced combined gold reserves and gold production. And with MML trading at a substantial premium to its indicated DCF and RED trading at a substantial discount to indicated DCF then MML would get a steal if it were to be on a share for share swap basis (ie not a cash offer).

BUT the short answer is: It won't happen!

Its all about history - the MD (GD) of MML was the Exploration Manager of RED and at the time of the new board of RED being formed he had a falling out with that new board. And history now demonstrates that he has become considerably more successful within MML. I did ask GD some time ago as to whether he would ever contemplate a takeover and its clear he was not interested in the slightest. And yet it would certainly add considerable fundamental value for the long term of MML. 

I would add that RED will not be an easy target in a takeover now, as its in the transition stage moving into production and its fate is in the hands of the major insto's who will seek full value for their investment rather than a steal by some middle ranked gold producer - its not really a good fit with the major gold producers such as Newcrest, or overseas majors as the production profile is not within their criteria (they usually require a resource/reserve base of around 5 million ounces to start with!).

The exciting thing about RED is that if it performs as expected then we are also likely to see a substantial premium to DCF NPV, and if along the lines of MML then we are talking multiples of its current market cap (around $243 mill - MML has a market cap of around $1.466 BILLION!).


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## beatle (24 August 2011)

I'm the first to confirm that I have no knowledge of technical trading interpretation aside from saying a share price is trending up, down or sideways. Seems to me there are quite a few technical traders in RED, and there have been comments in the past from these experts as to whether RED is about to fill the gaps etc before the next move up etc. Is there someone out there in cyberland who can pass comment about the current trading situation with RED and outlook for the next couple of weeks (- it will just give me an idea whether I need to consider putting in some research on buying another house, lol). 

From a non-technical trader perspective its performing well again today, but the best is yet to come (it could be just around the corner too because I expect an announcement in the next month on the revision of studies on pit optimisation of a lower cutoff grade and associated resource/reserve upgrade).


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## NewTrade (24 August 2011)

beatle said:


> I'm the first to confirm that I have no knowledge of technical trading interpretation aside from saying a share price is trending up, down or sideways. Seems to me there are quite a few technical traders in RED, and there have been comments in the past from these experts as to whether RED is about to fill the gaps etc before the next move up etc. Is there someone out there in cyberland who can pass comment about the current trading situation with RED and outlook for the next couple of weeks (- it will just give me an idea whether I need to consider putting in some research on buying another house, lol).
> 
> From a non-technical trader perspective its performing well again today, but the best is yet to come (it could be just around the corner too because I expect an announcement in the next month on the revision of studies on pit optimisation of a lower cutoff grade and associated resource/reserve upgrade).




I'm no Tech-expert; but I can see it is trending up. I have a feeling it will close today the same as yesterday. No trough has been formed yet.

There is a heck of volume that needs to be filled before we see a natural increase - but if you look at the depth, the demand to buy is just over double that of the demand to sell.

So far things are looking steady, which is a good thing - and RED seems to have survived the market panic of the 5th, and to a lesser extent the 19th without being trudged down a great deal as opposed to some stocks out there which I got stung on.

So far I can gather that becuase of this steadiness, and lack of volatility - the markets eyes are on Gold.


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## beatle (24 August 2011)

What I did forget to mention re technical trading interpretation, I'm not sure if there is a way to establish whether there is someone manipulating the Bids/Offers such that it encourages sellers to sell at below the Offer price by hogging the Offer line - seems to me at the moment someone is soaking up the weaker hands by sitting off the pace until the weak sellers try to get ahead of the lowest Offer price by delivering directly to the Bid price - and that party maybe the one bidding the 4 million odd at 19 cents yesterday who seemed to vanish midway through the days trading. Is it possible that the true buying intent is using the technical trading interpretation to place its buying orders to "con the market (ie the weaker holders in RED)", maybe?

There is no doubt in my mind that those in the know are of the opinion that RED will go a long way up from here and are using these more devious means to build up a stake (or add to an existing holding).


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## NewTrade (24 August 2011)

beatle said:


> What I did forget to mention re technical trading interpretation, I'm not sure if there is a way to establish whether there is someone manipulating the Bids/Offers such that it encourages sellers to sell at below the Offer price by hogging the Offer line - seems to me at the moment someone is soaking up the weaker hands by sitting off the pace until the weak sellers try to get ahead of the lowest Offer price by delivering directly to the Bid price - and that party maybe the one bidding the 4 million odd at 19 cents yesterday who seemed to vanish midway through the days trading. Is it possible that the true buying intent is using the technical trading interpretation to place its buying orders to "con the market (ie the weaker holders in RED)", maybe?
> 
> There is no doubt in my mind that those in the know are of the opinion that RED will go a long way up from here and are using these more devious means to build up a stake (or add to an existing holding).




I don't think there is any price manipulation going on - if you want to see price manipulation go and look at trading history of Red Fork Energy - I watched all day as someone sold into himself to hold the price down - and take panic sells from weaker holders, no doubt to increase holdings as RFE _may_ deliver big shortly, but bigger later.

Still; it is Gold all the way - and my gold holdings look promising for the long term. I am holding RED and IGR at the moment, but most holdings are in RED which I had the pleasure of topping up.


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## NewTrade (24 August 2011)

Looks like we are going to close out at 19c again.  Was hoping for at least 0.195 for the sake of the charts and trend line.

Still, we are trading way above the MA and EMA and volume is just below average.


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## NewTrade (25 August 2011)

Ouch - two days of equal closes and today a slight drop. There is going to be a momentum change - that much I am certain of. I hope it is not a huge correction and the trend continues up, or at least holds fast to its current level until Nov.


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## fastbuck1 (26 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> Ouch - two days of equal closes and today a slight drop. There is going to be a momentum change - that much I am certain of. I hope it is not a huge correction and the trend continues up, or at least holds fast to its current level until Nov.




nothing wrong with a correction, nothing is worse  than  a huge spike only to see it  fall back to earth, todays depth looks good plenty of buyers @.185 , gold price has steadied hopefully red's first pour will see the gold price @$2 000 per oz...and we can all move the the Bahamas and sipp exotic beer and drink quality coffee......


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## NewTrade (26 August 2011)

fastbuck1 said:


> nothing wrong with a correction, nothing is worse  than  a huge spike only to see it  fall back to earth, todays depth looks good plenty of buyers @.185 , gold price has steadied hopefully red's first pour will see the gold price @$2 000 per oz...and we can all move the the Bahamas and sipp exotic beer and drink quality coffee......




Lol - I don't have that many holdings to go to the Bahamas  Maybe a trip to the beach is good enough for me


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## beatle (26 August 2011)

Eh NewTrade, seems you ride the RED horse daily like I do, but from a different perspective - i look at it from a longer term point of view knowing that despite the short term cycles the fundamental value of RED with Siana is at least double what it is trading at now so that keeps my strong when RED is dropping. With you seems you are looking at it with a shorter and technical perspective in mind. That is obviously a way to trade successfully and so I'm not knocking that at all, but I would suggest to you that it may not be an easy way to trade RED as I remain of the view that we won't get full value until the first gold is poured regardless of what the gold price is at that time. And as each day gets closer to that time I am getting more excited - of course it doesn't stop me from getting frustrated too, and whingeing about it from time to time (after all I am only a mere human, sorry beatle, lol).


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## NewTrade (26 August 2011)

beatle said:


> Eh NewTrade, seems you ride the RED horse daily like I do, but from a different perspective - i look at it from a longer term point of view knowing that despite the short term cycles the fundamental value of RED with Siana is at least double what it is trading at now so that keeps my strong when RED is dropping. With you seems you are looking at it with a shorter and technical perspective in mind. That is obviously a way to trade successfully and so I'm not knocking that at all, but I would suggest to you that it may not be an easy way to trade RED as I remain of the view that we won't get full value until the first gold is poured regardless of what the gold price is at that time. And as each day gets closer to that time I am getting more excited - of course it doesn't stop me from getting frustrated too, and whingeing about it from time to time (after all I am only a mere human, sorry beatle, lol).




Yes you do have a point here - I do comment on the Technicals quite heavily. And I do agree - this is not a stock that, at the moment, can be determined by a Technical analysis. This is a long term growth stock, and I understand that fully.

Still - I watch daily activity quite a bit, and hope for a price push pre-November. Why? Because I believe that the price will jump before the pour. At the moment demand is high, almost double that of the sellers - which leads me to believe that the closer to the pour we get, the more desperate the buyers will become. So we should see a jump right before the pour, then a re-evaluation, then another jump.

At the moment these buyers, I believe, are wanting to get the cheapest possible entry for maximum profits. Though, the more news the better - and these buyers will accept slightly higher entrys. That is good news to all that are already holding.


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## jancha (26 August 2011)

beatle said:


> Eh NewTrade, seems you ride the RED horse daily like I do, but from a different perspective - i look at it from a longer term point of view knowing that despite the short term cycles the fundamental value of RED with Siana is at least double what it is trading at now so that keeps my strong when RED is dropping. With you seems you are looking at it with a shorter and technical perspective in mind. That is obviously a way to trade successfully and so I'm not knocking that at all, but I would suggest to you that it may not be an easy way to trade RED as I remain of the view that we won't get full value until the first gold is poured regardless of what the gold price is at that time. And as each day gets closer to that time I am getting more excited - of course it doesn't stop me from getting frustrated too, and whingeing about it from time to time (after all I am only a mere human, sorry beatle, lol).




I'm with you on RED beatle but you have to remember that there's quite a few stocks out there that are trading well under half their true value. The difference is that the ones i'm looking at aren't gold stocks and wont be moving anywhere too soon unless theres a take over bid. Red on the other hand is a gold stock and unlike other gold stocks is under valued with plenty of ticks in the boxes. RED is worth holding under current conditions. After Bernakies speach tonight i'd guess there'd be rebound on gold.


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## NewTrade (26 August 2011)

jancha said:


> I'm with you on RED beatle but you have to remember that there's quite a few stocks out there that are trading well under half their true value. The difference is that the ones i'm looking at aren't gold stocks and wont be moving anywhere too soon unless theres a take over bid. Red on the other hand is a gold stock and unlike other gold stocks is under valued with plenty of ticks in the boxes. RED is worth holding under current conditions. After Bernakies speach tonight i'd guess there'd be rebound on gold.




It really depends about Bernanke. The market could sway either way - but gold could maintain a good price regardless of the result tonight.

In regards to take-over; it is a possibility. However I don't know if it will be allowed by RED unless there is a huge incentive. Consider RED has a working machine, land, de-watered pit and workers PAID with an approximate 20m surplus!

Things are looking great. And who knows, perhaps after a year or so of production we could see a much larger outcome in SP than 30c+, we may see the company get a generous evaluation.

(Dear God - please make RED shares worth a dollar each)


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## jancha (27 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> It really depends about Bernanke. The market could sway either way - but gold could maintain a good price regardless of the result tonight.
> 
> In regards to take-over; it is a possibility. However I don't know if it will be allowed by RED unless there is a huge incentive. Consider RED has a working machine, land, de-watered pit and workers PAID with an approximate 20m surplus!
> 
> ...




In regards to T/O bids?  You didn't read the post correctly. I was refering to the other companies share price not doing anything under current market conditions unless a T/O. Nothing about RED being taken over as i cant see that happening.

 Gold up 3% last night heading back to where it was. They say that if there's a bull run a commodity as with gold if there isn't any healthy corrections long the way it has the potential to collapse very quickly. Gold looking pretty good atm.

 My only worry is if there's a sell off on gold from countries like Greece & Portugal who between them have 500 tons of gold. Is that a possibility? They would get a fair price for it now and be debt free. Dont no much about this so others opinions on this would be good.


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## NewTrade (27 August 2011)

jancha said:


> In regards to T/O bids?  You didn't read the post correctly. I was refering to the other companies share price not doing anything under current market conditions unless a T/O. Nothing about RED being taken over as i cant see that happening.
> 
> Gold up 3% last night heading back to where it was. They say that if there's a bull run a commodity as with gold if there isn't any healthy corrections long the way it has the potential to collapse very quickly. Gold looking pretty good atm.
> 
> My only worry is if there's a sell off on gold from countries like Greece & Portugal who between them have 500 tons of gold. Is that a possibility? They would get a fair price for it now and be debt free. Dont no much about this so others opinions on this would be good.




Oops, sorry - I mis-interperated your post in regards to the T/O; my apologies.

Yes Gold is up following Bernanke's speech last night - I woke up this morning to find t sitting at 1827/oz. I have not done any no read any compelling analysis to support a collapse, however it is a possibility - I don't think we have seen a new support level for Gold Price - no way. But what will it drop to? I think if it maintains 1600+/oz, that is great news for RED.

Have you read Bell Potters report on RED? Aparently the "big bux" will derive out of 2014 when their operating costs are drawfed by its production income. Imo - great long term holding oppertunity _if_ all is smooth.

I feel lucky, personally. Since the pour was actually schedualed for July, but rain hindered the operations, it gave me time to jump in at a reasonable entry. And I can't help but wonder, what the SP will become in 2014 - perhaps it will be juicy enough to sell for some big bucks.


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## NewTrade (29 August 2011)

Wow- Today is a good day for the ASX and for RED.

Gold maintains 1800+/oz, RED breached the 20c point - demand GREATLY exceeds the buy demand, there are almost 5 times more buy orders than sell orders.

Looking quite good today as we drive closer to Nov', though now I wish I had more cash!!!


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## mgm1a (29 August 2011)

fantastic demand & I am again happy to see 20c.  Baker Steel notice seems like a small change and they had plenty off opportunity at well below the sub 17c they scored - watch this space things are afoot that we may not know about, or perhaps they will be moping up the rest of the stale holders up unitl Novem


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## Dougs Antiques (29 August 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> Ive been watching RED for the last 12 months and I havent seen anything that really has made me think that I should buy in.
> There reports are few and far between (Intrest needs regular posative reports), to be honest it is trading at about the same as 12 months ago with the odd bounce to 20 or so cents and looking like being interesting ,then to see it receed back to 17 or so cents.
> To be honest RED needs to break 21 cents before most will even look at it.
> In saying this I hope it does and I will jump on the train.
> ...




Today was a good day for RED and if it continues up tomorrow I might have to take a position on this one.
ATM its looking the goods
Good luck to all holders


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## Moit (29 August 2011)

Hi all RED club members. Hi again Doug. 

I really hope you can join this tight nit family we have on Aussie stock, lol. Things are certainly looking impressive from a chartist point of view. Not that i am one, but the signs are obvious. We are on a major uptrend. And i cant see it turning any time soon.

Can we,are we going to break this 22.5 cent barrier in coming days. I think we can.. Can RED management pleeeaaase put out an announcement soon. Re, drill results, lower cut off grades- more reserves, commissioning date, Siana construction update. Something... to keep this momentum flowing. Everyone knows what is happening and what is about to happen, but can they do it. I think this stock is being monitored very closely by every day traders, instos, and the mum and dad investors like most of us.
Is there something in the pipeline??

I'm still waiting to jump in, and top up. It may be the deep end, but i will still pay top dollar as i know where this stock is heading... UP !!!

Does anyone have a crystal ball ??  A.B. Have you checked the bottom of your wine glass lately. Can you see anything ? lol.

Cheers Moit, Go RED Go !!


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## Dougs Antiques (30 August 2011)

Hi Moit thanks for the warm welcome.
Well im in at 19.5 @ 208,000 this morning but its sad to say that I will be out at .20 at this stage.


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## Skip1jz (30 August 2011)

It's interesting to see MML is currently valued at 1.4 bill on annual prduction of 100,000 oz. No reason we can't see red re-rated at 4x current cap in a few years if all goes well with the plant and the world doesn't suddenly wake up to the fact that as a metal gold is a bit, well useless


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## anderbond (31 August 2011)

Hi Moit and all,
Thanks for asking what I can see in the bottom of the "old "red sediment lol! Interesting action coming up according to the sediment. Looks like it might be in the drilling results as they look to further drill out. Spotted GE in Sydney a couple of weeks ago, and he seemed to have a "gold glint" in his eyes imo. Beatle is on the money according to the sediment as news of a rejig of the mine plan is also due. Seems there are approximately 1400 workers on site at Siana so it must be a beehive of activity. GE says the facilities, plant and processing will be world class and best practice. Thinking about a quick trip  to site before the gold pour to witness all this activity. Exciting stuff, backed up by the further accumulation by Baker Steel. AB


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## vkdirector (31 August 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> Hi Moit thanks for the warm welcome.
> Well im in at 19.5 @ 208,000 this morning but its sad to say that I will be out at .20 at this stage.




Looks like that was a nice and easy trade for you


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## Dougs Antiques (31 August 2011)

It was an easy trade then bought 98000 AFR straight away got filled at a 2.5% profit within 1 minute lolz
Now im at 100% cash again waiting for the next one that takes my fancy


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## jancha (31 August 2011)

On the candle stick chart RED looks like it's just about ready to go the next level and go past 21c even tho the volume is fairly low.
I'm no chartist but if there are any around i certainly would appreciate their point of view.


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## Dougs Antiques (31 August 2011)

jancha said:


> On the candle stick chart RED looks like it's just about ready to go the next level and go past 21c even tho the volume is fairly low.
> I'm no chartist but if there are any around i certainly would appreciate their point of view.




RED seems to be tightly held from 19.5 to 20 cents with low volume (no-one really selling off under this price) without a significant rise in price will indicate the buyers are not prepared to pay more than 20 cents.
If it makes a 2 or 3 tick increase on low volume then it will indicate that the buyers think that is worth more than its current price and I will jump in with the others that think the same.
Does my jibberish make any sence (cents)


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## mgm1a (31 August 2011)

Mathews have dropped 123m shares, now with 8.16%
The period covered is a long one and no list of transactions provided to give further clues.
Anderbond and others - any whispers from the jungle drums in the sydney financial district?

Intriguing that its sent just when the 21c resistance is again being re-tested - perhaps in an effort to dampen sentiment to hold it back? 

I also note that their holding  is very similar to the new Baker Steel provide a mere 2 days ago, and while RED has enjoyed the same rush of other goldies I still constantly wonder on RED's attraction as a t/o target and what game plans are afoot by big holders.


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## beatle (31 August 2011)

Hi All RED followers, and some interesting comments from new posters, the more the merrier!

Yes Mgm1a, its an interesting announcement today re Matthews, apparently having dropped a mere hundred odd million shares over the past 6 months or so. Its amazing that such a time-delayed release could possibly occur unless there is something "different" about the transactions etc, I get the feeling it might be a legal issue as to how a holding is interpreted by ASIC. Although I'm not sure how exactly the actual trading has occurred I wouldn't mind betting it goes some way to explaining the strange trading that we see with RED at times - and it also makes me wonder how at times the share trading might be masking the chartists interpretation of the stock (just to throw a wobbly into the charts lol!). But its a pretty good looking chart at present I would say (its going UP lol). I guess we are at the tipping edge into new territory but knowing the stage of the development I'm betting the house that its going to push higher in the coming month unless the gold price crashes!!!

I don't have any issue with Matthews selling down, if in fact they have, as they held too many shares for my liking, and its probably been the reason the share price suffered as they sold down in the past months - thus its a good news story that they can't influence the stock price as much although their current holding remains considerable. I note also that Matthews "personal" account, lol, of 20,000 shares is an increase from zero, does that mean he remains confident about RED to the extent of buying an entire 20,000 shares, lol? 

I believe that RED, now tipped as a Buy with a target of 46 cents (Evans) or 36 cents (Belldirect) take your pick, is moving into the transition as it moves ever closer to production. 

AB I look forward to catching up with you at the mine opening, and sharing a RED or two.

I hope for his sake Fastbuck has revised his target upwards otherwise we may have seen the last of our great old posting mate now that its hit 20 cents!


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## beatle (1 September 2011)

Maybe this will be a non-chartists description of technical trading characteristics of RED share trading, if so then I ask all you technical traders for your forgiveness, lol.

What RED has suffered from is trading to higher levels and building a bid base, and then getting swamped by a dumper. It has exasperated me in the past few months, and actually caused me to stop buying as many more shares than I would have otherwise done. I did wonder if it was an insto during this time, but since it was not accompanied by ASX releases from substantial shareholders I assumed it was not from such a group. Yesterdays announcement suggests that it was probably Matthews doing the dumping.

Now the test: IF RED doesn't get dumped on like it has been, and if it can break above 21 cents, then my view is that maybe Matthews dumping is done for now. If so then RED might transition to closer to its NPV valuation, at least to around mid-30's sooner than the first gold pour in November!

Go RED go, UP!


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## vkdirector (1 September 2011)

I see red was also on Your Money Your Call last night and the guys at fat prophets said they have put a buy on red. There report is FAT-MIN-288 31 Aug 2011 but I am not a member so I can not see what there report/valuation contains.

The Buy/Sell ratio on red is back to about 4:1 this morning so it will be intresting to see if they get much volume today.


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## Moit (1 September 2011)

Hi all RED club members. Hi Doug. It was ashame you had to sell so soon. Maybe you have bought back in now that we have breached the 20 cent mark.

Hi A.B. Thanks for the insight. Ive really got to get off the XXXX and start drinking RED wine. Cause I'm not seeing a whole lot in a dark brown bottle. Maybe if i tipped it in a glass, that might help, lol. Fancy just bumping into G.E. My bet is you had a counter lunch, was Beatle there? lol. Things are looking really nice at the moment. Great share price, lots of goings on at Siana, and the obvious GOLD pour thats just around the corner.

Beatle i hope for our sake, Mathews have finished there dumping (if it was them of course) and are now happy with what is left. I did notice just a few minutes ago that we had nearly dumped all at 21 cents, then up popped another million or so. Maybe I'm just looking to far into it or maybe the dumping is yet to continue. 

Just my thoughts, but come on RED, Break the 21 cents, so we can break the 22.5 cents. 

Go RED Go, cheers Moit


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## beatle (1 September 2011)

Hi Moit, seems we have seen a dump as we both alluded to, but of course no one can be sure its the same bandit - someone might be just taking up the slack for their own purposes!

From a source on site I spoke with this morning I understand that the Siana development is progressing well and should achieve the rescheduled timeframe for commissioning due to good weather and activities benefitting by hoards of labour onsite. 

The sharetrading activity seems to move along to a different theme and agenda, regardless of the fact we are moving ever-closer to first pour of gold.


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## fastbuck1 (1 September 2011)

beatle said:


> Hi All RED followers, and some interesting comments from new posters, the more the merrier!
> 
> Yes Mgm1a, its an interesting announcement today re Matthews, apparently having dropped a mere hundred odd million shares over the past 6 months or so. Its amazing that such a time-delayed release could possibly occur unless there is something "different" about the transactions etc, I get the feeling it might be a legal issue as to how a holding is interpreted by ASIC. Although I'm not sure how exactly the actual trading has occurred I wouldn't mind betting it goes some way to explaining the strange trading that we see with RED at times - and it also makes me wonder how at times the share trading might be masking the chartists interpretation of the stock (just to throw a wobbly into the charts lol!). But its a pretty good looking chart at present I would say (its going UP lol). I guess we are at the tipping edge into new territory but knowing the stage of the development I'm betting the house that its going to push higher in the coming month unless the gold price crashes!!!
> 
> ...




Hi Beatle, i still have my holding after reading some of the reports  being posted i will wait and see if we do get into the 40-50 range...volume was good again today still amazes me how many are still  keen to sell so close to the finish line .....


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## Dougs Antiques (1 September 2011)

I think a lot of the sellers are just traders like me ATM.
Im very unsure about leaving my cash in the market overnight in this volitile market.
As for RED they did have a fair run today and have a more than fair chance of going over 21 cents tomorrow in my opinion.
There seems to be some solid intrest but you must remember with volume there must be another million traders like me at the moment that dont want an order sitting overnight so will sell by close (double volume buy in and sell out the same day).
I believe that there will be another dip and I want the cash at hand to take advantage of it.
ATM im trading daily and being quite sucessfull picking up about 2K a day doing so (on average) 
Best of luck to RED holders and I could possibly be back in tomorrow if the signs are there on open or soon after.


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## Starcraftmazter (1 September 2011)

After the Mathews announcement I noticed the number of shares on sale dropped from around 9m to 6m in the last couple of days. Highly interesting whether this will cause the sp to accelerate in it's appreciation.

I'm with you Dougs Antiques. I've bought and sold twice this week (with good results), and will probably continue to do so for the time being.

I'm rather torn about the possibility of another market mini-crash due to any number of events any day now, and the possibility of a jump in the sp due to the inevitable announcement.

Watching RED by the minute.


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## fatsoh (2 September 2011)

hi beatle and others

the mathews sell down is all tied in with BOAC's special asx exemption from having to report their holdings - imo, they have been using their holdings via either merrill's or mathews for shorting 

look at the latest '604' ann - holder of relevant interest - mathews

as opposed to..........registered holder of relevant interest - BOAC

when one looks at the number of shares on issue, we can see that the volumes traded are miniscule - many have held tight whilst the big boys play their shorting games in order to catch those weak hands 

gotta remember that gold isn't treated like other commodities and the fundamentals are not a straight forward supply and demand scenario

why else has gold equities not kept with the pace of bullion? - 'cos the market treats gold moreso as a currency

if other goldies are any sort of guide, we should see the sp appreciation as we get closer to production - then of course, the potential huge upside from further siana exploration - not to mention the prophyry style system at mapawa


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## beatle (2 September 2011)

Hi Fatsoh, and a most informative post, you make some most relevant comments and your observations re BOA etc seem to be spot on - and it also demonstrates how sophisticated players can make a mockery of the ASIC/ASX regulators law/rules - I can't understand why the authorities don't make it more explicit as to the beneficial holder rather than the registered owner etc. I believe that Matthews beneficial holding and lack of reporting over the past months probably remains outside of the rules and most certainly outside of the intention of the rules regarding share ownership, regardless.

Good to know you are still involved Fastbuck, not that you will be enjoying it coming off the boil in the past day from the high of 21 cents. But we have seen these dips so much, I have no issues with my own holdings temporarily dropping in value despite it should be much higher. Its almost near the end of the waiting now for that first gold bar, and then the real exciting times of monthly profits will see RED as a genuine profitable gold mining company.

Sorry to overlook VKDirectors interesting comment about Fat Prophets Buy Recommendation for RED yesterday. I wonder if someone would be happy to copy the recommendation on here? Was there a price target associated with it?

I'm interested to hear of the increasing number of daytraders stepping into RED - if you can make $2,000 per day I can't blame you DougsAntiques, but I'm sure I would be losing that amount if I changed my investing strategy!


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## Buckfont (2 September 2011)

Hi there beatle, 

Any idea whether RED intends to issue a Gold ounce to commemorate RED`s first gold pour in a similar way that Integra did? T`would be good to add to the collection.

Am still buying and although haven`t put the house on it, a large part of the backyard is there.


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## beatle (2 September 2011)

Hi Buckfont, and interesting idea, I will mention it to some of the guys when I catch up with them next week - I'm sure the response will be that it would take care of the first years production the way the number of daytraders coming onto the register sporadically lol.

Am I correct in understanding you own a sheep station Buckfont so I guess your backyard is fairly considerable to keep RED shares?


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## Buckfont (2 September 2011)

beatle said:


> Hi Buckfont, and interesting idea, I will mention it to some of the guys when I catch up with them next week - I'm sure the response will be that it would take care of the first years production the way the number of daytraders coming onto the register sporadically lol.
> 
> Am I correct in understanding you own a sheep station Buckfont so I guess your backyard is fairly considerable to keep RED shares?




I look forward to their response beatle. I`ll put my hand up to buy a few if it eventuates.

As to the sheep station, alas, just a humble 1/4 acre, but more than enough for the stash


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## Skip1jz (2 September 2011)

beatle said:


> Hi Fatsoh, and a most informative post, you make some most relevant comments and your observations re BOA etc seem to be spot on - and it also demonstrates how sophisticated players can make a mockery of the ASIC/ASX regulators law/rules - I can't understand why the authorities don't make it more explicit as to the beneficial holder rather than the registered owner etc. I believe that Matthews beneficial holding and lack of reporting over the past months probably remains outside of the rules and most certainly outside of the intention of the rules regarding share ownership, regardless.
> 
> Good to know you are still involved Fastbuck, not that you will be enjoying it coming off the boil in the past day from the high of 21 cents. But we have seen these dips so much, I have no issues with my own holdings temporarily dropping in value despite it should be much higher. Its almost near the end of the waiting now for that first gold bar, and then the real exciting times of monthly profits will see RED as a genuine profitable gold mining company.
> 
> ...




Hi Beatle,

I have a copy but am not sure about the legal ramifications if it is posted up here for everyone to see, I could however pass you a copy through other means? There is no price target on it, they don't seem to operate in that function. FP introduced me to the stock.


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## beatle (5 September 2011)

HI Skip1jz and thanks for the offer re Fat Prophets RED commentary. I was more interested to hear of target price as clearly all analysts appear to be raising their target prices due to preparedness to assume gold price remaining higher for longer periods - earlier any targets were based on gold falling back to US$1,000 and below, thus the 26 - 27 cent estimates is now old news, and updates assume prices for RED more than mid-30 cents due to favourable outlook for sustained higher gold prices.


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## ChrisJH (5 September 2011)

Hello friends! I'd like to ask for some further indication on future share price for RED. I originally bought into RED a few months ago based on it's current price at the time, the fact that it had been much higher, and it was yetvto produce gold. So far I have made some money with it, usually I take my profits and run, but it seems that RED is a good bet in these times.

What I'm wondering though is how the share price will move into the future. If we're talking about target prices of .30-.50 for RED I assume given the current price activity of RED that this is a realistic price for RED in the short term? What happens to a stock like RED long term after they start producing gold? If the price of gold continues to rise I assume RED would also rise, but other than that does the share price generally continue to rise substantially?  Do companies like RED pay dividends once they are established and producing gold? 

I'm not looking for advice, justba general idea of what the share price of a company like this does over 1-5, 5-10 year period.


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## mgm1a (5 September 2011)

chrisJH - any sorts of permutations happen - some give divies most very small - what stops most is high costs or hedging - RED has neither so looking good. check out MML graph as its a neighbour and while sustantially bigger does give a clue to re-rating that we are looking for.

All RED Team- check out latest Top 20 - new shareholder Equitas Nominees with 27m (2.1%) is a Macbank vehicle - nice to see more confirmation from the professionals


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## Starcraftmazter (5 September 2011)

Hey guys

For those who didn't catch this, a very interesting article about gold:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/wikileaks-discloses-reasons-behind-chinas-shadow-gold-buying-spree


This Thursday we have two big speeches - by Bernanke and Obama. It is of course speculated that they will engage in something which involves money printing. I would say this is potentially a very good opportunity for a big breakout in RED.

Best of luck to all holders


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## Wysiwyg (5 September 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Hey guys
> 
> For those who didn't catch this, a very interesting article about gold:
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/wikileaks-discloses-reasons-behind-chinas-shadow-gold-buying-spree



Typical 'gold to reach $5000 / ounce" story. Always happens to entice that thrust up. Right now either a double top or smash the 2k.


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## Starcraftmazter (5 September 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Typical 'gold to reach $5000 / ounce" story. Always happens to entice that thrust up. Right now either a double top or smash the 2k.




Disregarding the prices quoted, I found the reasoning for the rise in gold outlined far more interesting. ZH is also not a spruiker site in the first place.


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## beatle (6 September 2011)

mgm1a said:


> chrisJH - any sorts of permutations happen - some give divies most very small - what stops most is high costs or hedging - RED has neither so looking good. check out MML graph as its a neighbour and while sustantially bigger does give a clue to re-rating that we are looking for.
> 
> All RED Team- check out latest Top 20 - new shareholder Equitas Nominees with 27m (2.1%) is a Macbank vehicle - nice to see more confirmation from the professionals




Great observation Mgm1a. And most likely that there will be more instos forced onto the register once RED moves up in capitalisation around the time of it producing gold, or a bit later once it enters the top 300 Australian companies - its liquidity is a positive factor in that regard.

Chris, what is exciting about RED from a longer term point of view is that it will be a long-life low cost gold producer with substantial positive cash flow expected from Siana, which will ensure it fully evaluates its big porphyry targets, not just the LSY prospect at the Mapawa MPSA but also within the the other parts of thatMPSA plus the Siana MPSA.

Another factor to consider is that gold producers with long-life low cost gold production generally trade at a premium to the underlying fundamental valuation. RED remains at a discount currently to the current gold price due to:
1. Its still to produce gold, thus needs to confirm the operation is working appropriately in accordance with feasibility projections of cost, throughput, grade, gold recovery - but the Siana gold production facility is stock standard and shouldnot present any serious issues. It was dogged by extreme rainfall conditions early on in the development thus has been affected by that delay in production. Now production is getting very close!
2. Gold price is an issue - at what price should someone predict for cash flow forecasts, esp as Mgm1a points out RED is unhedged at the moment.

If RED were to start producing in accordance with expectations then it could very easily move towards 50 cents fairly quickly IMO


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## jancha (6 September 2011)

I noticed a few large buyers 5000000 2000000 1000000 @ 20c without being serious buyers as they never buy or stay in queue. It's as if they're trying to spruik up the price.


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## Wysiwyg (6 September 2011)

jancha said:


> I noticed a few large buyers 5000000 2000000 1000000 @ 20c without being serious buyers as they never buy or stay in queue. It's as if they're trying to spruik up the price.



I don't buy when the bid side is stacked falsely. They have already bought and want some fodder to push the price higher for them to sell to. The ones that do buy often get caught and sell at a loss in panic or hold at a paper loss till whenever.

I know.


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## Starcraftmazter (6 September 2011)

I'm surprised at the resilience of RED as the rest of the market tanks over these last 2 days. This did not happen during the August volatility. Would it be a fair assessment that this is due to the imminence of the Siana mine opening (last I remember, they said possibly start of September?), and that it is very unlikely RED will drop below $2 at this stage?

Or is it because unscrupulous forces are manipulating the stock to keep strong buyer pressure at the $2 mark?


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## jancha (7 September 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> I'm surprised at the resilience of RED as the rest of the market tanks over these last 2 days. This did not happen during the August volatility. Would it be a fair assessment that this is due to the imminence of the Siana mine opening (last I remember, they said possibly start of September?), and that it is very unlikely RED will drop below $2 at this stage?
> 
> Or is it because unscrupulous forces are manipulating the stock to keep strong buyer pressure at the $2 mark?




lol $2!!!! How'd that dollar sign get in there?


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## Starcraftmazter (7 September 2011)

Must have been in a fantasy world of one year in the future 

Yeh it's meant to be $0.2


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## vkdirector (7 September 2011)

Yeah I must say if I woke up tommorow and RED was sitting at $2 a share I would be a very very happy person as would most in this thread execpt anybody that has been day trading them.

Intresting to see RED has finally hit 22 cents with demand at roughly 4:1 so it might not be to much longer and RED could be hitting the 30 cent bracket.

Over the last month when a lot of stocks have dropped a fair bit RED has seemed to be able to stay at evens if not actually go up when the market has been taking a hit.


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## vkdirector (7 September 2011)

jancha said:


> I noticed a few large buyers 5000000 2000000 1000000 @ 20c without being serious buyers as they never buy or stay in queue. It's as if they're trying to spruik up the price.




And 24 hours later all the above orders would be up 10% right now


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## beatle (7 September 2011)

"Starcraftmazter
Re: RED - Red 5 Limited
 Must have been in a fantasy world of one year in the future "

Are you sure its a fantasy world Starcraftmazter? Joshua fit de battle of jericho and the walls came tumbling down, lol. 


i think we can say RED is now officiallly in transition - anyone who wants to get on for the ride better do so sooner than later, we are surely going to get another follow up announcement in the next weeks confirming the SAG mill is ready to turn! Todays announcement is another confirmation that things are looking good for Siana. I still think they are conservative with the first gold pour month!!!


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## wtang89 (7 September 2011)

Hi Everyone,

Following the announcement from RED that basically said everything is progressing on schedule and for us to mark november down on our calendars, we see some movement in the SP today (up at around 22c atm). 

But seeing the European debt issues becoming an ongoing concern and Deutche bank's CEO speech sounding rather pessimistic, it seems like it may be a while yet before things settle down. What concerns us in regards to that, is Switzerland's decision to peg their currency to the euro. That effectively means the old swiss may not be as safe a currency/asset class as ppl want it to be. My take on that is that more and more investors will turn to gold as a result leading to a higher (or at the very least, sustain gold prices at a higher levels). Which is fantastic news for gold buyers (and us).  

If RED's rise resembles anything like MML's, we would all be happy campers sipping marhitos a few years from now. ^^. Happy to hold.


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## LostMyShirt (7 September 2011)

wtang89 said:


> Hi Everyone,
> 
> Following the announcement from RED that basically said everything is progressing on schedule and for us to mark november down on our calendars, we see some movement in the SP today (up at around 22c atm).
> 
> ...




Hello.

I took notice of RED not too long ago, but did not buy until recently. I understand several members have bought in at much lower prices (I read through the entire thread before I decided to register and post).

I have gotten in at .21c and still think it is a great buy. Todays action is fantastic, and am very pleased to notice slight profits already rolling in.

I have seem some fairly outlandish forecasts and calculations to expect for November, some of them starting at 50c and ranging to 70c. Is this realistic?


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## beatle (7 September 2011)

Not sure what a marhito is but it sounds dangerous WTang. I think AB's idea of drinking RED wine is a more comfortable past time, besides you have the sediments to ponder what price we can suggest to LostHisShirt for RED, lol.

The valuation on RED is very much clouded now by gold's fluctuations, except to say that anything north of US$1,500 per ounce @ $1.05Aussie to US gives an NPV valuation around 35 cents. AND once in production most long life low cost gold producers trade at a premium to the indicated NPV valuation. What colour do you want for your shirt? I suggest RED, its the new GREEN!


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## LostMyShirt (7 September 2011)

beatle said:


> Not sure what a marhito is but it sounds dangerous WTang. I think AB's idea of drinking RED wine is a more comfortable past time, besides you have the sediments to ponder what price we can suggest to LostHisShirt for RED, lol.
> 
> The valuation on RED is very much clouded now by gold's fluctuations, except to say that anything north of US$1,500 per ounce @ $1.05Aussie to US gives an NPV valuation around 35 cents. AND once in production most long life low cost gold producers trade at a premium to the indicated NPV valuation. What colour do you want for your shirt? I suggest RED, its the new GREEN!




I would love a RED shirt, and some RED wine - it seems the bulls are also see'ing RED. I just hope the bull doesn't kill the matador and the crowd see's RED... (trying my best to keep up with bealtes analogies.)


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## papatee (7 September 2011)

vkdirector said:


> And 24 hours later all the above orders would be up 10% right now




. . . . except that the orders in question were never actually filled, were they? 

Although you are correct that these unfilled orders are up 10% right now in so far as the 3,000,000 and 5,000,000 bid have now been shifted up to 21.5c and 21c respectively. If you remove these two single orders the buy stack does not appear nearly as healthy (although to be fair it would not exactly be anaemic either). 

Can't deny the positive price action today, however have to say I'm with Wysiwyg on this one. I like the RED story and have been watching for a possible entry but these kind of bids make me nervous and think twice before jumping. Will be very interesting to keep an eye on whether these bids will remain in the queue or be pulled should they start to be sold into.


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## beatle (7 September 2011)

papatee said:


> . . . . except that the orders in question were never actually filled, were they?
> 
> Although you are correct that these unfilled orders are up 10% right now in so far as the 3,000,000 and 5,000,000 bid have now been shifted up to 21.5c and 21c respectively. If you remove these two single orders the buy stack does not appear nearly as healthy (although to be fair it would not exactly be anaemic either).
> 
> Can't deny the positive price action today, however have to say I'm with Wysiwyg on this one. I like the RED story and have been watching for a possible entry but these kind of bids make me nervous and think twice before jumping. Will be very interesting to keep an eye on whether these bids will remain in the queue or be pulled should they start to be sold into.




Papatee, whilst its easy for me to say I don't feel nervous about putting in a Buy order at present with those props sitting there, I suggest you think of this:

There are considerable holders of RED having more than 3 million or 5 million shares. Anyone of those could dump into those props before they had time to remove them. ie those putting in the props are prepared to buy more if forced to by a dumper! Even Matthews, who was a crazy dumper for so long it seems, is not dumping any more. I think the props just give us comfort not to sell prematurely. RED is going a lot higher from here IMO


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## LostMyShirt (7 September 2011)

beatle said:


> Papatee, whilst its easy for me to say I don't feel nervous about putting in a Buy order at present with those props sitting there, I suggest you think of this:
> 
> There are considerable holders of RED having more than 3 million or 5 million shares. Anyone of those could dump into those props before they had time to remove them. ie those putting in the props are prepared to buy more if forced to by a dumper! Even Matthews, who was a crazy dumper for so long it seems, is not dumping any more. I think the props just give us comfort not to sell prematurely. RED is going a lot higher from here IMO




Beatle;

I am hearing a large sum of comparitive analysis for RED against MML. Is this even a fair comparison?

Do you find any solice in making such a comparison, and if so, why?


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## Buckfont (7 September 2011)

beatle said:


> Hi Buckfont, and interesting idea, I will mention it to some of the guys when I catch up with them next week - I'm sure the response will be that it would take care of the first years production the way the number of daytraders coming onto the register sporadically lol.
> 
> Am I correct in understanding you own a sheep station Buckfont so I guess your backyard is fairly considerable to keep RED shares?




Hi beatle, yes after todays news, and rally, that sheep station is looking more probable or at least an acreage with a few old goats. Lol


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## zomfgwtfbbq (7 September 2011)

I wonder if i missed the boat already... mmm


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## LostMyShirt (7 September 2011)

zomfgwtfbbq said:


> I wonder if i missed the boat already... mmm




Look, in my opinion, no you have not missed it, but that stands as of right now.

The Daily chart for RED over a a 1y period shows we have tested the resistance level of Sept-Oct '10 @ .225c and hit a high today of .23c. Though it would seem that the peak has been reached, time for a trough, all indicators are telling me otherwise - and it puts me in the same dilema of wanting to unload at .225c, but I'll outline the reasons why;

Two weeks following the steep arithmetic trend,

MACD well over Zero Point making crossover below 0.01 and stands now above 0.01, pointing up indicating direction,

Stochastics lurking above 80 - again pointing up,

20 day MA outperforming 50 and 200 day MA making its cross-over late August,

Buy demand out-weighs the sell,

and volume traded today was slightly above the 20 day MA, majority buys which had it closing higher by 9.8%.

My issue is that steep arithmetic trends don't usualy work as decent support, the trend up may be intermediate-long term. Still, having said that, it is still bullish, and may see more gains by the end of the week.

I am only an amature, however I am still not opposed to topping up at this price. Again, this is only my opinion.

-DYOR


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## beatle (8 September 2011)

Hi All RED Followers,

Its great to see the steadily growing posters pool, and many interesting aspects of RED being discussed.

I am the first person to say I have no real understanding of chart interpretation, and I guess I am glad that I don't as I probably would have sold my shares in RED such a long time ago. I have always used my fundamental analysis to keep me rock steady, particularly during these more recent volatile times. But I admit there have been many many frustrations over the term of my holding in RED that has aged me over that period (bearing in mind I have held RED shares (or its predecessor GRN) over the past 14 years - ughhh).

I would suggest that if you do want to consider the day by day trading in RED then of course your charting takes precedence over my fundamental view of RED and the Siana project, so if you are trading short term then ignore my views perhaps.

Clearly RED is going through a transition now, from explorer/developer to gold producer. It has had many more ups and downs than most shares going through that process mainly as it has taken so darn long. And the delay due to the weather has given further reason to add doubt to it ever producing gold. (But that has given us longer term believers to buy more shares cheaper too!).

The reports are now confirming what we believe, that RED will be producing gold out of Siana within the next 2 months (maybe sooner?). I suggest if you want to look at most companies going through that transition, that most companies are trading at around its NPV valuation by the time of them going into production, but again RED due to its delays in performing remains considerably below its NPV valuation at present, whether you use current gold price or US$1,500/oz. THUS RED remains a bargain from a longer term share investment position - I use the term INVESTMENT rather than spec, as I have traded these sort of shares for a period of 40 years and have made money out of them, its spec in terms of how far they might run, but they represent good longer term investments for the most part.

As a comparative analysis I have used KCN as an example some time ago - its share trading history was compared as it was developing a gold project in the unknown region of SE Asia, in Thailand. And if you look at its share price at the time of explorer through to producer, for a long time it hung in the region of 10 - 20 - 30 cents. And see where it went to when in production finally. I think KCN was in Thailand around 12years before it produced gold at Chatree from memory.

MML however is a closer to home analogy. Although it has slightly different project characteristics compared to Siana, the Co-O project also has some similarities, in being within a similar older gold producing part of Mindanao. Both MML and RED also have strong local support and have considerable community programs for health, dental, education etc. MML's project is higher grade gold in narrow veins of quartz, all mined from underground. It therefore can produce relatively cheaply per ounce, when things are going right. So far things have gone well and MML has cruised up to a market cap around $1.5 billion!!! On a reserve base no larger than RED's.

SIana has easier open cut mining for its first 3 - 4years, which is far less risky from a mining perspective, but will not be able to produce gold at the same extremely low cost per ounce compared with Co-O, but certainly at the lower end of the operating cost spectrum compared to some lower grade open cut gold projects elsewhere.

Process wise, RED has an advantage, with a considerably larger (thus more cost-effective) processing facility compared to MML. And RED's reserve base allows for at least a 10 year production history.

My view is that RED could conceivably trade at a level way above its NPV valuation as soon as it reaches steady state production, probably early in the new year, and although it may not be completely comparable to MML in terms of market cap, it won't be too far off IF RED can improve its marketing profile, and also get on to demonstrate the potential of its gold porphyry targets at Mapawa and Siana.

RED might dip in the next few days, but if you sell out expecting to buy back in at a considerably lower price then I think you are mistaken. Maybe 1 cent or 1.5 cents below current levels, but certainly nothing like the retracements we saw a few months ago.


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## LostMyShirt (8 September 2011)

Beatle;

Thanks for the in-depth post in regards to RED.

To cut a long post short - when I say dumping now to buy back, 1-1.5c is considerabely sufficient for a rebuy. Because not all of us have the funds to top up for large amounts of shares - I want to play the market to increase those holdings. But I do not want to sell out of RED completely - I think that is a bad move as we have no seen full value yet, not even close.


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## beatle (9 September 2011)

There is no doubt RED is in transition now, not just in terms of transforming from explorer to gold producer, but also in its share price finally starting to move higher and closer in sync with its fundamental value, with recognition of its anticipated huge monthly positive cash flows out of Siana.

Once the insto's have had their fill, and I believe they are still playing a game with us just slowly adding to positions before taking the share price slowly but ever-upwards to new highs to make the chart more and more compelling for the technical chartists, then we are likely to see many more bullish broker reports targetting levels way beyond the mainstream analysts current targets!

I hope that the longer term holders don't pull out prematurely, its been a long and frustrating wait so make sure you enjoy the ride for a lot longer, we have all earned it - Fastbuck I hope you are still onboard and not geting tempted. We are not part of the past trading cycle, RED share price is making a structural change, to far greater levels!

And just remember, aside from the exploration that RED will be pursuing in coming months at Mapawa and Siana, it will have a bundle of an ever-growing cash pile out of Siana - it may become more aggressive with those funds, for the benefits of us shareholders. Siana is not the end of the story, its the start of its new revitalised life!
If you are tempted to sell a few now, may I suggest you just shut your eyes for a short while and see where we are at the start of November...


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## LostMyShirt (9 September 2011)

beatle said:


> There is no doubt RED is in transition now, not just in terms of transforming from explorer to gold producer, but also in its share price finally starting to move higher and closer in sync with its fundamental value, with recognition of its anticipated huge monthly positive cash flows out of Siana.
> 
> Once the insto's have had their fill, and I believe they are still playing a game with us just slowly adding to positions before taking the share price slowly but ever-upwards to new highs to make the chart more and more compelling for the technical chartists, then we are likely to see many more bullish broker reports targetting levels way beyond the mainstream analysts current targets!
> 
> ...




I pulled out at .225 like an Idiot.

We still have more gains to go - I estimate 36c in November, after that I have no clue.


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## beatle (9 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I pulled out at .225 like an Idiot.
> 
> We still have more gains to go - I estimate 36c in November, after that I have no clue.




LostYourShirt, you didn't sell all your holding did you? IF you do still have some more then shut your eyes (AND don't peep, lol!). 

I suggest what you need to focus more on is that historic share price, and even company activities etc for RED are now entering new ground! And whilst Albeast makes some valid points about the past decisions that may have been made, we are now in completely glittering new territory! Regardless of whether the gold price falls back or not RED could easily achieve a market cap of around 500 - 600 mil very easily prior to the start up of gold production.

As far as activity on the ground goes that latest update confirms that things remain on track for November gold production, and with the amount of money spent to date on $15-17 million spare cash at the time of completing the plant. I can assure you that I have a mate onsite who has confirmed to me as late this week that everything that needs to be done is being done, and the workforce are working towards the November first gold pour as indicated, AND with a possible official mine opening in early December (of course that depends on how the commissioning goes). But please note that RED has a stock standard gold plant and operation, and there has been a complete risk analysis undertaken of the project to date with the last possible issue that could hold the operation at bay removed by installation of a 6MW power plant which is now in place.


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## LostMyShirt (9 September 2011)

I was wathcing price movement and thought to myself I could achieve more holdings by selling now buying cheaper. It didn't work. And I ended up uying back in desperately at 24c. Now, that is a STUPID move - never do that unless you are sure you can get your order filled.

Yes I still have profits - but now less holdings. It is a shame - but I will take the mistake on the chin and wait for the real valuation. 

Nov' will be exciting. I have set a target based on the current trend of 36c. Depending on the activity - I may keep or withdraw the target. I don't know yet - but so far 36c is looking decent.


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## anderbond (9 September 2011)

G'day Beatle and others, I hope you are all buckled in for the ride. Well, certainly I know my friend Beatle is but hopefully most of the rest of you are in for at least the next few months. Last night at home, I endeavoured to see what the sediment in the bottom of the RED glass was telling me. But unfortunately I managed to knock over a full glass and spilled it all over our beautiful WHITE rug. Luckily new wife was out so I managed to not suffer instant death, but in the aftermath of cleaning up, I realised it didn't matter as with RED's SP movement I can easily replace the rug. Didn't like the white much anyway lol! Globally it seems that finally, Gold equities are at last in demand as investors big and small recognise that the current favourable conditions for gold will remain. I have heard it said that if you are not yet a gold bug, then you must be a dollar bug! There is now a scramble on to get into producer gold equities, and it is just starting IMO. Eventually this will spill over to the exploration stocks as well I feel.
This is all GREAT for our beloved RED! Tonight I will check the sediment again, but will do this well away from anywhere that I can cause damage to. Have a great weekend all. AB


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## LostMyShirt (9 September 2011)

Anderbond - Be weary as this may be short lived, interms of Gold and it's rush. This stock will move higher regardless of Gold however if Gold does fall and we have hit  high valuation based on a higher POG then expect RED to fall to propper value. Keep an eye out for news - watch the gold price and most of all keep an eye on foreign markets. The more they tank the more they will take up a safe haven and that is where we will shine.

I did not expect this sort of price movement today - it is a little bit worrying, but the charts are looking good, all indicators suggest more of an upside. I will hold onto these shares for dear life and never sell them again at such rediculous prices.


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## fastbuck1 (9 September 2011)

beatle said:


> There is no doubt RED is in transition now, not just in terms of transforming from explorer to gold producer, but also in its share price finally starting to move higher and closer in sync with its fundamental value, with recognition of its anticipated huge monthly positive cash flows out of Siana.
> 
> Once the insto's have had their fill, and I believe they are still playing a game with us just slowly adding to positions before taking the share price slowly but ever-upwards to new highs to make the chart more and more compelling for the technical chartists, then we are likely to see many more bullish broker reports targetting levels way beyond the mainstream analysts current targets!
> 
> ...




hi Beatle i'm still in  ,have not sold a single share i now look at what the market capp should be on production 550 mil- 750 mil and could even go breifly alot higher on day trader hype and hopefully a higher gold price......getting very excited.....


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## LostMyShirt (9 September 2011)

Investor confidence, like an endless cycle, is shaking yet again in Euroland. Gold rallies way back up, Euro markets go down. I suspect a slow moving DOW tonight, but not a tank.

RED will see very nice POG in the coming months as this situation of debt and currency etc. is not going away overnight.

Does anyone feel that the October month will seep away any profits? I was told that it is best to sell in Oct' but I dont know... I personally don't think so...


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## mgm1a (9 September 2011)

beatle - with RED hitting a *7 year high* and now *mkt cap of $300M* & with it finally getting some sort of re-rate, but still undervalued, its time to thank you for your informed commentary & replies over 2 years ago when i started climbing on board. I was concerned about some things and new to gold miners..

My attention was drawn in midst of GFC when its SP was 3.7c, cap. of $24m but with cash holding exceeding that! 

My first parcel was at 8.5c, prior to which i remember delaying getting in at 7.9 only because it was bouncing around 0.001c to 0.003c  - how ridiculous is that! 

RED finally taking me green again and putting a smile on my face. Thanks again. 

PS no I'm not selling.


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## Starcraftmazter (12 September 2011)

Possible short-term gold retraction?
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/09/gold-looks-vulnerable/

I once again sold off everything this morning; RED at 0.23 again at a modest profit to my last buy. Will be interesting to see if I made the right decision or not - RED has a real habit to go up a lot spontaneously, so I'll be watching by the minute. The fact that there is specifically a lot of volatility with Europe right around the time of Siana coming online is extremely inconvenient to say the least 

Nothing is easy I guess 

If this week eventuates into somewhat of an August-like crash - coupled with a cooling off on the gold price, could we see RED get below $0.2 once again?


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## LostMyShirt (12 September 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Possible short-term gold retraction?
> http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/09/gold-looks-vulnerable/
> 
> I once again sold off everything this morning; RED at 0.23 again at a modest profit to my last buy. Will be interesting to see if I made the right decision or not - RED has a real habit to go up a lot spontaneously, so I'll be watching by the minute. The fact that there is specifically a lot of volatility with Europe right around the time of Siana coming online is extremely inconvenient to say the least
> ...




Star - Yes, a 20c price is a posibility as there is support there - however there is a trandline which has also acted as a decent support and is about to be tested.

I would like to challenge your view on inconvnience and say that the currency concerns and debt issues would and should work in RED's favor. This will send the herd to rally gold and provide RED with increased margins. 

In my honest opinion the Gold sector, should outperform the market.


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## anderbond (13 September 2011)

Hi Guys,

As I am not a technical trader I am interested in any views as to the "gaps" that might need filling along the way of the recent hike in the SP. Any contributions will be gratefully received. AB


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## kythan06 (14 September 2011)

Morning,

an interesting article in todayys herald sun.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/in-the-black/uncertainty-produces-golden-opportunities/story-e6frfinf-1226136160059


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## Moit (14 September 2011)

Good morning Kythano6 and all RED members. 

Very interesting Kythano6, its great to see RED getting some much needed publicity. I believe it is long over due. Maybe a bit more information on RED would have been helpful. (ie). Ounces, mine life, more reserves due to lower cut-off grade expected, cost per/ounce for extracting and so forth. But all in all, great to see RED get a mention. Cheers, good research.


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## Dougs Antiques (14 September 2011)

Hi guys, im back in as from yesterday, (i did say a break of 21c will see me back in) That read in the herald Sun is interesting.
now im a bit confused as to hold or sell at my normal 3% to 4% gain (23.5) hmm the decisions...its often more profitable to trade the highs and lows.
Something for me to think about today lolz
Cheers All


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## LostMyShirt (14 September 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> Hi guys, im back in as from yesterday, (i did say a break of 21c will see me back in) That read in the herald Sun is interesting.
> now im a bit confused as to hold or sell at my normal 3% to 4% gain (23.5) hmm the decisions...its often more profitable to trade the highs and lows.
> Something for me to think about today lolz
> Cheers All




I don't know your trading style well - and if you see genuine profits at .235c then go for it, and good luck!

In my opinion though - top slicing isn't a bad idea too. Considering we have gotten a 49c valuation I'd be reluctant to offload. Then again, my capital invested is small and I'm after a large profit.


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## Starcraftmazter (14 September 2011)

Was up a $0.01 today and I was getting rather concerned about missing and upswing, but then the market took a tumble. 

Today has been a pretty good day for gold however, forming somewhat of a triple bottom at $1820-$1830 in September? Perhaps it will now go to test the $1900 mark. If so, I can see RED rising with it.


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## LostMyShirt (14 September 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Was up a $0.01 today and I was getting rather concerned about missing and upswing, but then the market took a tumble.
> 
> Today has been a pretty good day for gold however, forming somewhat of a triple bottom at $1820-$1830 in September? Perhaps it will now go to test the $1900 mark. If so, I can see RED rising with it.




I got an email today from that IC dude, had a chart on Gold. He thinks another push past 1900 would be a "fresh advance to 2100".

I got excited though when I saw the quick jump - someone must have made a large buy. Still go jump back to 215c is odd.

Anyway, I'm not likeing the look of the chart for the short term that is for sure.


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## beatle (15 September 2011)

Hi RED followers, its great to see the older brigade of posters now joined by newer contributors, each adding to the RED story. 

I've got to hand it to the technical chartists who have posted and managed to correctly read the micro-movements in RED share price - I know I don't dare to do that as I am confident that the day I sell a single share its share price will move up and I have been in the stock long enough thus not wanting to miss out on the final movement up, and I certainly don't want to chase it up!

Mgm1a, I was certainly most thankful for your contributions during the earlier days re the RED base case valuation - I think many doubted the high valuation view until you reinforced that valuation based on your own NPV estimates. Now finally the broking analysts are getting more realistic with the valuation based on gold prices closer to current values - but more importantly its comforting to know that RED valuation remains very high if we assume a gold price closer to US1,500.

Its great to know you are still in RED Fastbuck, I hope you get the rewards from supporting RED around the time of the GFC. AB, maybe you need to get a RED carpet!

I have sought further information from my mate on site, and unlike myself who had expected a possible gold pour before the Nov date, it seems RED management believe that Nov is the most likely scenario after commissioning and final handover - although the handover to the operating staff is already in process. If things go well it is likely that the official mine opening will be in early December, depending on it suiting certain Philippine dignitaries who are important for the longer term operation of Siana.


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## mgm1a (15 September 2011)

RED holders may like to re-assess commissioning risk *downwards*, given that the new Operations Director, Ron Pyatt (from linkedin)was "Plant Optimisation & Commissioning Manager at BHP Billiton". Has to be same guy.


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## LostMyShirt (15 September 2011)

"new Operations Director, Ron Pyatt (from linkedin)was "Plant Optimisation & Commissioning Manager at BHP Billiton". Has to be same guy."

He a decent addition to the RED5 Limited team?


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## geezuguys (15 September 2011)

Yes, is the same Ron Pyatt.  He's been on board nearly 3 months now and I think the ordered progress and co-ordination in bringing the pieces of the on-site jigsaw together (i.e. a complex challenge) smacks of someone who knows what they're doing.... if you get my drift!


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## mr. jeff (16 September 2011)

This might present a good buying opportunity, coming  back to long term high at 21c and so far respecting it. Chart later. 
Anyone that says they are waiting for a pull back for an opportunity, hope you are taking advantage. If not, please let me know your short term views with RED.
Apart from soft gold prices.
It is amusing to see that gold is falling "heavily", about $50/Oz, then I get newsletters saying that a possible pullback to 1600 is on the cards. Doesn't take long for fear to take hold. I guess now that some politicians have decided to heal Europe the financial future of the world is better and we don't need gold so much.
Let's hope that the US decision provides some excitement with suggestions of further support, then RED will make an announcement, some brokers upgrade their targets and we are off again. All sounds very hopeful!

Good luck holders, things are just now getting exciting.


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## mr. jeff (16 September 2011)

chart shows what I am saying although it did have a bit of a look at 20c today.

So long as it respects the levels, a significant break below 21c could take some time to recover. I hold so of course remain optimistic.


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## LostMyShirt (16 September 2011)

Glad to see you are optimistic there Mr Jeff. I onthe other hand am slightly concerned, but not overly - and having said that I think I will reach the latter level (IF) after my speculation it makes a break down to .195. Getting close to Nov' - so this price action is worrying; then again I'm paranoid...


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## Des P (20 September 2011)

Amazing up and down like a yo-yo today i dont understand how investors are selling when a mine is so close to production i will stick at it,i am in for the long haul i am sure this will work
Cheers
Des


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## beatle (21 September 2011)

Des P said:


> Amazing up and down like a yo-yo today i dont understand how investors are selling when a mine is so close to production i will stick at it,i am in for the long haul i am sure this will work
> Cheers
> Des




I couldn't agree more DesPiesse, but seems the market volatility and gold price fluctuations are unsteadying influences. This just makes the current price of RED a bargain for those prepared to put their money where there mouth is! I am slowly accumulating more but can't buy too many more.


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## nomore4s (21 September 2011)

Just a reminder to all posters.

While I understand it is exciting when you are on a share you believe will be a huge winner and you can get caught up in the hype, this forum still requires posts to have some sort of quality analysis regarding price and price targets.

A few posts are starting to fly close to the wind with regards to ramping and just poor quality posts in general.

This forum prides itself on the high standards maintained in the stock threads and we appreciate the effort our posters put into their posts, so please lets keep this level up. There are plenty of other forums around if you just want blatant ramping & back slapping, make you feel good about your investment posts.


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## beatle (21 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Just a reminder to all posters.
> 
> While I understand it is exciting when you are on a share you believe will be a huge winner and you can get caught up in the hype, this forum still requires posts to have some sort of quality analysis regarding price and price targets.
> 
> ...




Just to avoid confusion, especially for the sake of Nomore4s, I provide my fundamental valuation of RED's share of Siana (ie 97.6%), based on 10% discount rate, with the following values used:
Gold US$1,500
Silver US$35.00
Exchange rate USD/AUD $1.02

RED equivalent value per share NPV  39 cents!!!

You may call that getting carried away with the hype. You may call it ramping. But its based on the base case Bankable Feasibility Study cash flow model.

That is how I base my opinion on RED, that it is trading below 50% of its fundamental value on current metal prices/exchange rate.

As I mentioned previously RED has been caught up with the general malaise of the market and uncertainty with the outlook for future gold price, but in my view (you can call it ramping if you want) once RED begins gold production, due in November this year (around 8 weeks time) it will likely begin to trade at a higher price if it comes online at anything like base case forecasts, and if/once it assumes steady state production could conceivably trade at a premium to the indicated NPV valuation.


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## LostMyShirt (21 September 2011)

beatle said:


> Just to avoid confusion, especially for the sake of Nomore4s, I provide my fundamental valuation of RED's share of Siana (ie 97.6%), based on 10% discount rate, with the following values used:
> Gold US$1,500
> Silver US$35.00
> Exchange rate USD/AUD $1.02
> ...




Nice post Beatle; tyvm.

In regards to Technicals - todays 20c close is a worry. Though we have not seen a 195c Bid in quite some time, this uptrend lost a heck of a lot of momentum an currently testing just above the .195c short term support level.

However, I should advise that there _seems_ to be a great deal of offloading by a large holder, possibley an insto. This would probably account for the high volume of sales into bids. At the same time, we have an algorithmic accumulator who wishes not to pay over .205c for the stock also. 

My short term outlook is grim - I don't think we will see another 24c peak in quite some time - and with production only 8 rought weeks away and gold steady within its trading range, the current activity is slightly concerning.

However, on an upside - I will also divulge my opinion to prospective buyers in saying that this may indeed be the last oppertunity one is going to get at this price. I myself have topped up a fair amount but not equaling to some of the larger holders on this thread, such as fastbuck, and beatle - who have been extremely supportive and informative during this exciting period.

My pesonal target is 28c, regardless of valuation. Though I may change my prospects based on the volatility in the hopes that I mnay be able to snag some small profits due to range bound activity.

Please, guys - take note of the key words here. "Opinion" is meaningless until you decide it is meaningful. Don't get financial advice from online forums.


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## mgm1a (21 September 2011)

The other channel alerted on new Top20 out............
In the last month we can see Macbank vehicle Equitas increase by 12m and the Smorgon family vehicle Escor bought 6 m.


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## Starcraftmazter (21 September 2011)

Does anyone have any thoughts about whether tonight's decision by the Fed is being bet into RED's share price, and if so then which way?

It seems to me a lot of the gold juniors haven't had any real direction in the last couple of weeks, and it feels somewhat like the market is waiting to see what the Fed will do, even though there is no talk of QE3.


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## LostMyShirt (21 September 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Does anyone have any thoughts about whether tonight's decision by the Fed is being bet into RED's share price, and if so then which way?
> 
> It seems to me a lot of the gold juniors haven't had any real direction in the last couple of weeks, and it feels somewhat like the market is waiting to see what the Fed will do, even though there is no talk of QE3.




RED has been fairly resiliant during these key points and news breaks. Around the time of the last Bernanke speech, RED was still uptrending at a fast momentum - seems to have slowed down now but the trend is still in tact.

I think the key players in the market would be swayed by such things. A few have offloaded a large amount but volatility is still minimum.


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## LostMyShirt (22 September 2011)

It is a little bit of a shame, though I'm still optimistic, that the price has dropped below 20c to hit a low of 19c before mid-day.

There is your answer, Star. After lasts night debarkle we saw the nullification of the uptrend. Unfortunately now one will have to wait until Nov' to get some decent profits - or sell now at a loss... Instos have increased their holdings slightly, some decreased, and retail buyers arn't paying more than .195c - .205c for this stock.


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## Starcraftmazter (22 September 2011)

Interesting day today for RED, being up 2.5% at one stage, ending down 5%. For the first time of observing this stock i saw more sellers than buyers, which is quite a shocking sight for me.

I don't believe this is because RED is less attractive of an investment, just a reflection of the overall market - and thus, the change has been very significant. Even during significant drops in the last few months, there were still around 2 buyers for every seller in RED, but now the buying pressure is really quite depressed.

Depending on what happens with the gold price, I think it's quite possible RED will drop further, as nonsensical as it may seem. I am definitely looking to buy in again at this stage. I think the only event which could significantly upset RED's share price is if gold underwent a very major correction. But even still, RED's production costs are so low (compared to numerous other gold minors), that it's still a very attractive company - but of course it will be worth less if that does end up being the case.


For a long while now, we have had a bad world economy and money printing. Now we have a worse economy and no money printing, so it is easy to see why gold & gold plays are under such pressure. I think once the situation surrounding gold and it's direction becomes clear, we will again see buyers return. Once gold stabalises and establishes a trend, will I think be a good time to be holding.


Now can someone tell me if I'm right on this - assuming all else being equal, in the event that the Australian dollar starts to go down against the US, RED should be worth more?


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## LostMyShirt (22 September 2011)

It is a worry to see the buying pressure deminish over night. This could very well be the result of a consensus via a majority of retail investors. Perhaps, and it is a long shot, they took the down momentum as a sign to pull out and wait for it to settle at a lesser price. Though, it did not stop the very first trader of the day snapping up almost a million units, perhaps more.

Your theory is not non-sensical at all. At this rate I've had to change my prospects on this stock, lower my target and strap in for the ride. I believe the price will fall further, but not too much further. 

Sorry to make you read through all that only to tell you that I have no answer to your question regarding AUD/USD and its effect on RED's SP.


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## Dougs Antiques (23 September 2011)

No need to panic guys......RED has strong fundamentals, an excellent managment team, 10 weeks from production, money in the bank.
Just sit it out I say.
This xmas will be a grand time for eating seafood and drinking fine wine 
I have bought this one up in recent times and have no intention of selling any time soon.
I have a planned sell of 60 cents.
I think that gold will hold between $1750 and $1850 over the next month
Hold your pants up and just give a sexy grin


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## beatle (23 September 2011)

Some fairly sick developments in the world financial markets seems to be the short term reason why RED is coming under selling pressure, and yet the fundamentals and facts speak for themselves re RED as a solid investment for the medium term - of course I'm disturbed that I could buy more shares now at 17.5 cents than I did a short while ago at 23.5 cents but I won't be dropping any shares now, just wish I had more cash to buy more! I'm with you Dougs Antiques on your view of hanging out till production and profits begin!

And Starcraftmazter well picked with the aussie dollar about it collapsing! Just to confirm what this means for RED:
1. Its major capital spend is over, which were priced in US dollars. Its paying pesos for labour so operating costs for labour are low anyways.
2. The gold revenues will of course increase, being based on Aussie dollar gold price.
3. Overseas insto's can now buy RED shares, priced in aussie dollars (or cents!) at a discount to what the price was, even after discounting the share price.

Thus the drop in aussie dollar currency makes RED an even more compelling argument if you believe that it will produce gold as expected in about 8 weeks time!

I aint dropping a share!!!

(And who is to know that the gold price will fall much further now, even though my valuation is based on US1,500/oz, also noting the aussie dollar is hedging that price to some extent).


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## LostMyShirt (23 September 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> No need to panic guys......RED has strong fundamentals, an excellent managment team, 10 weeks from production, money in the bank.
> Just sit it out I say.
> This xmas will be a grand time for eating seafood and drinking fine wine
> I have bought this one up in recent times and have no intention of selling any time soon.
> ...




Wow man! I remember you posting your skepticism a few weeks ago - you sure have changed your tune. It is rather encouraging - and I do agree; great fundamentals and a great oppertunity to top up! I have picked up some more at 0.175c this morning on open trying to average down.

Now, may I ask - why are you planning a sell off target at 60c? That seems rather high and I have no doubt that we wil get a fair value, however current conditions may very well be priced in. Anyway - I sincerely hope you get your target, make a bundle, and eat all the Scampi's you can eat! I'll meet you there


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## Dougs Antiques (23 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Wow man! I remember you posting your skepticism a few weeks ago - you sure have changed your tune. It is rather encouraging - and I do agree; great fundamentals and a great oppertunity to top up! I have picked up some more at 0.175c this morning on open trying to average down.
> 
> Now, may I ask - why are you planning a sell off target at 60c? That seems rather high and I have no doubt that we wil get a fair value, however current conditions may very well be priced in. Anyway - I sincerely hope you get your target, make a bundle, and eat all the Scampi's you can eat! I'll meet you there




Hi all, I did say that I would be back in at 21 cents which I done and bought more as it came down.
RED is nearing its pinicle (production) in a very short time, hence the insto buying recently...if its good enough for them its good enough for me.
Im not concerned about the economic climate as these type of situations almost always make instos and other investors turn to gold (the age old currency).
As for my sell at 60 cents ATM RED is valued at 49 cents (Beatles valuation...who in my opinion knows more about RED than most) Im of the opinion that RED will see a bounce to 40ish cents in December and 50ish cents in January with peaks at around 60 cents late january.
Mid November to mid December will be HUGE for RED ...Just my opinion, all I am saying is to hold on if you can because this will be a good time for RED holders.
Mods call this ramping if you like biut RED has ticked all of the boxes and is fundamentally set to take off like a "LITTLE RED ROCKET", The funamentals speak for themselves.
As always DYOR
Regards


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## Chasero (24 September 2011)

I was thinking about investing in this in October but now I'm not so sure... 

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/gold-bubble-bursts-20110924-1kq5f.html


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## LostMyShirt (24 September 2011)

I wouldn't take much heed to the article. The video has nothing to do with a "gold bubble", and the article assumes that we were in a bubble to begin with.

The POG at the moment is quite higher than the feasibility studies assumption of $1200/oz with a COGoods under $400/oz which was valued at $0.26 by brokers. Since the increase in gold to 1900 valuations changed up to a rough $0.50 and up (I won't give all the outlandish valuations here, you can read them in this thread).

Now; with market conditions the way they are, and their quick departure is a pipe dream, priced into a POG of AU$1500/oz, I say a fair value for this stock to trade would be between $0.26 and $0.30. My personal target is $0.28 - $0.285 at which point I will initiate a complete offload. Remember, I am pricing in the sentiment. If the sentiment was different we could see much higher prices in the short/medium term - however I cannot comment on the long term. This stock is desperately undervalued, and may see excellent profits for traders in the coming years.

We were rather close to the target in eary Sept' at $0.24 where a Doji candle signaled a reversal, but market conditions priced in as well. Now; you are probably wondering why it is that there is hope for the target. Well the answer to that is the contradiction in market sentiment by insto's, who have increased holdings and averaging down against retail traders who have been in a "panic sell" mood since last week. This has not stopped some retail investors though from purchasing sufficient amounts of stock.

So even though the market sentiment at the moment is bearish, it has not stopped many people from jumping in, mainly insto's; and like once said to me, "If it is good enough for them, it is good enough for me".

I am doing my best to learn and trade effectively. I advise your own research be done, and hink 10 times before pulling the trigger on your hard earned cash. My optimism can very well be someone elses pessimism.


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## Starcraftmazter (26 September 2011)

The drop in gold price is mostly due to 2 things;

1. CME Group increasing margins.
2. From my POV, the price of gold has for some time now had a perpetual QE priced in. Now that there's a prospect of no QE (at least for the foreseeable future), it corrects.

Either way, gold is on a long-term uptrend, no question about that. As RED's sp bottoms out here, it will probably be the last good opportunity to buy in, and I will certainly be loading up once again, this time hopefully for a few months at least


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## LostMyShirt (26 September 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> The drop in gold price is mostly due to 2 things;
> 
> 1. CME Group increasing margins.
> 2. From my POV, the price of gold has for some time now had a perpetual QE priced in. Now that there's a prospect of no QE (at least for the foreseeable future), it corrects.
> ...




Glad you are optimistic on RED.

I myself have realized profit, held, realized loss but refuse to sell. 

My patience is running short, and this "correction" is an array of damaged technicals. With the nullified uptrend, one has to rely on large buying based on fundamentals and won't see any sharp rises.

Imo - target for Nov' production is below 30c, above 24c - providing this current 16c price is maintained as a strong support.


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## LostMyShirt (26 September 2011)

Optimism shattered today. Fresh decline to 11c on the table.

The jig is up - RED is DED.

Was fun while it lasted.


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## theartglasshouse (26 September 2011)

I am contemplating buying in at these prices, just a small parcel for a quick profit.

All gold stocks have been hammered at the moment including 2 of my favourites. I think this could make a good rebound once the dust settles. Hopefully it will go a bit lower to bag a few more for my poor


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## LostMyShirt (26 September 2011)

theartglasshouse said:


> I am contemplating buying in at these prices, just a small parcel for a quick profit.
> 
> All gold stocks have been hammered at the moment including 2 of my favourites. I think this could make a good rebound once the dust settles. Hopefully it will go a bit lower to bag a few more for my poor




If it doesnt drop any lower than this, which I honestly think it will; it will trade sideways for a while.

I am clear in the red on this one, and still have not decided my course of action. Though my strategy before buying was to buy and hold for key dates, I am emotionally extremely frustrated.


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## theartglasshouse (26 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I am emotionally extremely frustrated.




Such is the current markets. Need to keep a level head and be sure of your investment(s) at this time. Only you can decide on whether you should sell or hold. Good luck with your decision.


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## LostMyShirt (26 September 2011)

theartglasshouse said:


> Such is the current markets. Need to keep a level head and be sure of your investment(s) at this time. Only you can decide on whether you should sell or hold. Good luck with your decision.




Lol, Thank you very much.

By the sounds of things you seem to be very confident in your decision; send some of that my way, haha


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## Chasero (26 September 2011)

I wonder how low gold will go...

$1,300

$1,100?

This is going to put a huge dent on all gold shares... ouch. (short term at least) So much for a safe haven.


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## LostMyShirt (26 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I wonder how low gold will go...
> 
> $1,300
> 
> ...




Hmm I think Gold will trade in a wide range for a while but if it does steep to prices as it was at the beginning of the year then that would just be a kick in the teeth.


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## Chasero (26 September 2011)

Don't worry.

Rumours are going to be flying about QE 3 no doubt in November. Gold prices should shoot back up with governments running to their printing machines.

Who knows what the future holds for RED. I just hope they announce something in October as planned. (That's when I'll think about placing some money, when there's actually results..)


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## Starcraftmazter (26 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Optimism shattered today. Fresh decline to 11c on the table.
> 
> The jig is up - RED is DED.
> 
> Was fun while it lasted.




I wouldn't be so quick to judge, today's movements had little to do with RED as a company in my view.

The entire day I was glued to the screen ready to buy. Gold was trading in a tight range of around $1630-$1660 and RED's sp was not moving much at all, then towards the end of the day gold dropped below the range down to around $1580 on ASX close (someone correct me if I'm wrong on timing) - and this is when RED dropped.

After close gold dropped further to $1537 and has since rallied back to $1630. The question is, will it be a bull trap or is there genuine support around the $1600 mark.

My (extremely short term) prediction is that if gold holds up overnight, so will RED on the ASX tomorrow.


In the medium term it all really does depend on the price of gold, there is not much else to say. There is talk to a possible correction all the way down to $1300s, in which case I would imagine several of the posters here will have to revise their valuations.


The best thing to happen right now for RED is for there to be enough problems in the world to induce QE in EU and USA before the year's end, which I'm sure will cause it's sp to rocket. My personal opinion is that a massive QE3 in USA is inevitable, but it will not necessarily come until some time next year. On the other hand, they may well time a grand QE with Europe at the November meeting where EU's plans will be decided. It's out of the hands of us mere mortals 

But I do not fancy being able to predict that far and accurate 

Of course on top of this, production will begin very soon, and there will probably be at least one lead up announcement.


Lastly it should be remembered that RED's production costs for Siana are $351/oz, so they are not in any danger whats so ever of being unprofitable. It all depends on how much valuations will change and what future gold movements will become priced into the sp.

I'm watching carefully on the sidelines. This is a quality stock that I definitely would like to hold for a while, the trouble is picking the right price.


Can someone please share their thoughts on valuation if gold is to be going sideways at $1300?


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## Des P (26 September 2011)

All i have looked at the figures on what Red 5 has said they will produce and even at $1000 an oz they will have there loan paid off in 2 years i have worked also on silver at $20 an oz.
which will leave 8 years of profits with out touching there other lease Mapwana.
I am sure there production rates would be conservative as while running a mine there is shutdowns for maintenance which is always on going and if they have a good mine manager in place and good maintenance planner this can be accomplished with minimum down time.
Can any body tell me what the tonnes per day the milling circuit can produce per day so i can try to work out what is possible (this is only something i am playing with as i spent a lot of years building gold mines many years ago)
Anyway just looking at the markets there seems to be a lot of panic selling so i will stick it out and try to scratch up some $$ to buy some more if it gets to 11c


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## So_Cynical (26 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I wonder how low gold will go...
> 
> $1,300
> 
> ...




You mite want to have a look at the 8 year POG chart, you will see that buying into significant price falls has always...repeat ALWAYS been profitable over the mid/long term.

I've made alot of money buying and holding Gold stocks thru price weakness and selling into strength....However i must say that i haven't brought a gold stock for maybe 18 months so have only been selling since early 2010.


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## beatle (27 September 2011)

Just to correct a few points made by various posters over recent days.

Firstly, RED has no debt at all. It is working off funds raised through placements via considerable insto's. It has got an offer of a standby debt facility of $8mil, but it has not drawn on that. It is expected to complete commissioning with circa $17 mil still in bank. 

My NPV valuation of RED based on a flat gold price of US$1,500/oz plus exchange rate of $1.03 (ie with A$higher than US$ which is not the case any more!) suggests Siana is worth 39 cents per share.

The Base Case Feasibility study was based on a US$800/oz gold price - it is likely that there will be a change prior to start up for the resources/reserves since the feasibility study originally were determined on resource outlines of US$650/oz. This may add another 15 - 20% of gold into ore reserves.

The plant was envisaged to operate at a maximum rate of 1 mtpa although the economic resource modelling presumed operating at 750,000tpa. The max milling rate of 1 mtpa was to be achieved in year 4 of the schedule when open pit and underground ore was blended into the plant. With the changeover in the SAG mill to a new one (an old SAG mill had planned to be refurbished) with variable speed drive and a rated capacity slightly greater than the former planned mill its likely that the milling rate will over-achieve 1mtpa subject to ore being available. With an expectation of reserves being increased due to the re-estimation by dropping cut off it is likely the annual milling rate will increase beyond the milling schedule as per the base case. In addition apparently the pumping capacity and tankage is in excess of original expected requirements, thus increase in plant throughput on an annual (and thus monthly) basis is anticipated.

Also, note that whilst the operating costs in the base case are estimated at US$351/oz, with that base case being a couple years ago its more likely the operating cost will now be closer to US$400/oz.


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## Chasero (27 September 2011)

I trusted my gut and bought a parcel today. 

QE 3 around the corner.

If not that, then the announcements in Oct should stir up some interest in the market. Fingers crossed.


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## beatle (27 September 2011)

Welcome aboard Chasero, lets hope we can share some positive sentiment in the market in the weeks to come.

Personally I prefer not to look too closely in the daily movements at the moment as the whole market is completely being tossed about by factors way beyond our expectations. But I'm with you that in some time in the future the USA will announce more QE at which time gold should regain some more strength. 

RED's time is yet to come, when it actually starts production will be a bonus, especially as it becomes clear of the operating costs, production rates etc. I consider the fundamental valuation based on NPV underpins the longer term price and whilst we have these current upheavals in the market I hold that valuation close to keep me from drowning in the bad news! 

But I would suggest that trying to predict the daily movements in RED (or any other share at the moment for that matter) is simply throwing darts at a moving target!


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## Chasero (27 September 2011)

beatle said:


> Welcome aboard Chasero, lets hope we can share some positive sentiment in the market in the weeks to come.
> 
> Personally I prefer not to look too closely in the daily movements at the moment as the whole market is completely being tossed about by factors way beyond our expectations. But I'm with you that in some time in the future the USA will announce more QE at which time gold should regain some more strength.
> 
> ...




I also bought some of MML. I'm too greedy


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## theartglasshouse (27 September 2011)

I bought in today as well with a slight profit on closing. Have some cash to top up if it goes lower and have my sell out price set along with the date as well. I think this could go well in the next few months.

A good recovery in some gold stocks today. Still volatile times though...


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## LostMyShirt (27 September 2011)

Volatile indeed.

As we saw today, the price sort of jumped - by its average mind you. It will take some time yet to see the price hit 24c again. I didn't end up selling my holdings  and I also think tomorrow will be an up day.


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## Des P (27 September 2011)

beatle said:


> Just to correct a few points made by various posters over recent days.
> 
> Firstly, RED has no debt at all. It is working off funds raised through placements via considerable insto's. It has got an offer of a standby debt facility of $8mil, but it has not drawn on that. It is expected to complete commissioning with circa $17 mil still in bank.
> 
> ...




Beatle thanks for the information this certainly helps me a lot
Cheers


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## Starcraftmazter (27 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I trusted my gut and bought a parcel today.




Same. Still watching like a hawk though, risky. Gold is in a definite rally....but will it continue?


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## beatle (28 September 2011)

Some of you guys have picked this move up by RED very well, but I hope you don't just sell out for a small profit as the true reward is likely to come once RED pours first gold, due in November.

In addition I'm hoping we get an announcement out in the next month regarding its review of an upgrade to its reserves position, and hopefully a revised mine schedule to accomodate that upgrade (so I can recast my cash flow model!).


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## Starcraftmazter (28 September 2011)

I'm actually getting very concerned about this being a dead cat bounce due to EU politicians denying the latest rumors, and will probably sell today. I do plan to buy and hold at some stage though, just when I'm confident there will be a sustained uptrend.

The price of gold has done really well in this week, though it's now in an 8 hour downtrend (sorry no chart).

Bloody market needs to develop a backbone and give us some clear direction. Until then, it's rally riding for me.


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## LostMyShirt (28 September 2011)

I think the eason you are forecasting a "dead-cat bounce" is due to the lack of volume today and minimal corroboration with the foreign markets.

Last nights EU went absolutely crazy - but the DOW lost steam. I was expecting a 90 point finish in the green, but we have been hovering on very little investor interest.

The current RED pric action does not suggest to me a quick bounce up to peaks - rather it is suggesting a sideways trending market lacking in information.

Although - the 9.5% and current 8% hike is making me feel at ease and has allowed me to invest some extra capital and average down.

My target still remains in the 0.285c region for the near term unless ofcourse we see a QE response - which in my view will not shake up markets for long, it will just give people the oppertunity to bail.


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## mgm1a (29 September 2011)

i've been perusing the financial stmts and noticed the $4.4M break fee they paid to exit the gold prepay facility. Ouch, about 17% fee. Their capital raising was $50m cash then to have that cost is not a good look.

Reading the capital section reminded me that our local partners (from the many Top 20 on website) MCC/ Southbridge( from memory) have sold down most of there shares. Wow, you'd think they'd have better advice.

the thread is picking up more readers...good.


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## LostMyShirt (29 September 2011)

mgm1a said:


> i've been perusing the financial stmts and noticed the $4.4M break fee they paid to exit the gold prepay facility. Ouch, about 17% fee. Their capital raising was $50m cash then to have that cost is not a good look.
> 
> Reading the capital section reminded me that our local partners (from the many Top 20 on website) MCC/ Southbridge( from memory) have sold down most of there shares. Wow, you'd think they'd have better advice.
> 
> the thread is picking up more readers...good.




So the majour investors have sold down their shares?

Isn't the exit from the Gold prepay facility a strategic move to secure more profits?

RED5 Limited's financial surplus is meaningless in many senses - after all is paid for, and plant operational, a level of surplus is good looking for the books, yes. However griping over the exit fee isn't particularly a worry.

My concern is the SP. If the majors are selling down, and even Matthews unloading many millions of shares - what chance do we have of an on market fair valuation?

I am dieing to see the new peak - so I can bail. This stock will not pass resistance for quite some time (24c) and I dare say that targeting 30c+ for the near term is just not feasable.


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## beatle (29 September 2011)

Mgm1a, a very interesting point with regard to the "Funding Extinguishment Cost", ughhh. It really was an ugly part of RED's financing initiatives to get Siana developed.
LostMyShirt yes it is a past event which doesn't have significance now but it is something that irks shareholders of that time (which we were) and that entire saga of funding resulted in a considerable increase in shares on issue.

LostMyShirt, the bigger shareholders (instos), apart from Matthews who seem to have gone quiet recently, have not indicated any selling whatsoever.

Personally with regard to short term price targets, it seems that the current market volatility and gold price fluctuations will continue to dominate RED's share price despite it getting ever closer to first gold production. While I have topped up a little in past days seems like it might get cheaper before it moves up. BUT I remain confident that RED, once in production, will be a bargain as the market appreciates its monthly cash flows and operational profits. Of course that confidence doesn't lead me to believe its price is going up soon as it certainly can't fight against the huge groundswell pushing it down with other resource companies.


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## Moit (29 September 2011)

Hi all RED club members...

By the way i see it, RED is cruising along with the rest of the market and gold price fluctuations. 

Lostmyshirt, mate, keep in mind just a few months ago, RED shot from 11 cents to 24 cents in just a couple of months and off really NO announcements, other than a couple of monthly construction updates. We are expecting more reserves to be announced, due to lower cut-off grades and also a commissioning date that is inevitable. Not to mention a mine that will be pouring GOLD in November.

When RED starts to go, ( and it will, ) it will take off like a RED ROCKET!! As it always does. The big boys, instos and us retail investors will be jumping on board pretty quickly as we've all seen before. so hang in there, don't panic and just try and top up if you can and lower your average a little. Just some friendly advice.

Cheers Moit.


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## beatle (29 September 2011)

Great to see your post Moit, and your overall view. Lets hope gold stays within a reasonable range, assuming gold is poured satisfactorily in the next couple of months the gold price is the only danger to RED shooting above that 24 cents resistance - that means gold needs to remain above US$1,000!


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## PT Cruiser (29 September 2011)

The erratic swings in views of LostMyShirt are the only thing bringing me ammusement with RED at the moment.

 It has been a very tough couple of weeks but I will continue to hold for first gold pour I guess


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## LostMyShirt (29 September 2011)

PT Cruiser said:


> The erratic swings in views of LostMyShirt are the only thing bringing me ammusement with RED at the moment.
> 
> It has been a very tough couple of weeks but I will continue to hold for first gold pour I guess




Watching daily price action makes me change my near term view. I probably should refrain from divulging them. Although, I will say that my views regarding RED's price action are in no way reflecting the status of the overall company. If you feel that my view is comical, then please refrain from commenting on them. You sure you are not amused with the price action? Glad I can bring some light to your day...

Moit; The SP fluctuations with no announcement indicates that people saw the value in near term producers because of fluctuating gold price. The exit from the pre-pay system tells me that RED has very high hopes on POG renaining well above 1300/oz, and even have outlayed capital to secure near term max profit on their reserves. I consider it good news that they exited, and also believe their strategy is not purely speculation. Good thigns will come out of this company.

Now; something I have been ponering for quite some time. Would RED be a good candidate for a takeover by some larger player?


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## beatle (29 September 2011)

LostMyShirt, re takeover potential. If you care to scroll back through the posts in past months you will see a number of posts that discuss the possibility of a takeover of RED. But summarising my view on that possibility:

The Siana gold project has sufficient reserves/resources/potential to attract a current gold producer in the middle tier bracket (say MML or SBM etc). It doesn't have enough gold in total to attract the likes of a big gold producer such as Newcrest or international gold producer.

The Mapawa project has the potential to attract the bigger players if resources start to move towards 5 million ozs, which is possible once exploration becomes active and with more definite success in finding the locus of mineralisation.

Whilst RED remains at a completely discounted price at present its unlikely that any gold company would consider a takeover prior to successful commissioning  of Siana and a more definite understanding of the operating costs involved. By that time RED is likely to move closer, if not at a premium to, implied NPV valuation of Siana. Any takeover would therefore be less attractive at that time due to a premium to that underlying value likely to be present at the time. BUT if Siana does perform as we expect and share price doesn't move considerably higher THEN RED will definitely be a true takeover target. IMO of course!


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## LostMyShirt (29 September 2011)

beatle said:


> LostMyShirt, re takeover potential. If you care to scroll back through the posts in past months you will see a number of posts that discuss the possibility of a takeover of RED. But summarising my view on that possibility:
> 
> The Siana gold project has sufficient reserves/resources/potential to attract a current gold producer in the middle tier bracket (say MML or SBM etc). It doesn't have enough gold in total to attract the likes of a big gold producer such as Newcrest or international gold producer.
> 
> ...




Sorry Beatle, I did rummage through the old posts but skimmed through it and didnt take notice of your previous opnion. 

Thanks for your summary; I agree with you completely. The reason I mention this is because I had read an article on, I believe it may have been BBC or smartmoney, which basicaly read that growth outlook for large miners is bleak, and time/costs of new explorations would be too much, thus it is easier to take over smaller companies with decent mines etc. The article made a lot of sense to me, and wondered if Siana would have an attraction. You cleared that up for me already - thanks very much.


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## beatle (30 September 2011)

Always happy to assist if its within my area LostHisShirt (you really should change that name, lol). 

I should also add that RED has considerable exploration potential within the whole Siana and Mapawa MPSA's outside of the immediate Siana gold mine and Mapawa LSY Prospect areas. In particular we have been provided with sketchy past exploration of porphyry gold prospects in the Siana MPSA as well as mineralised outcrop (base metals plus gold) elsewhere in Mapawa MPSA. Each of these occurrences could concievably add considerable blue sky value to RED in due course once they have the exploration work at the minesite sorted out (which may also provide additional ore feed to the Siana gold plant). 

I was pleasantly surprised that RED displayed some strength towards the end of the trading today, and lets hope that it continues to strengthen in coming days and move towards that ever-lasting resistance level of 24 cents!!! I'd love to see it blown out of the water for good (then it becomes a support level from what I understand of technical charting interpretation).


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## Starcraftmazter (30 September 2011)

Things in EU are looking good for the very immediate future, so probably not a whole lot of bad news, should see some money returning to Euro from the US which will push gold up. Good jobs data from US as well.

Now might be a good time to be holding.


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## LostMyShirt (30 September 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Things in EU are looking good for the very immediate future, so probably not a whole lot of bad news, should see some money returning to Euro from the US which will push gold up. Good jobs data from US as well.
> 
> Now might be a good time to be holding.




I should state for the record that I am and will continue to hold.

In my honest opinion; the ASX felt the drop of EU/US markets, but did not feel the rise. The first days gain of 100pts was eaten away slowly over the course of the week.

The emphasis on this stock has dwindled, buyer strength deminishing as we speak and the price trading within a very tight range. We will not see 24c peak for quite some time, and I also believe that even after the pour announcement, high twenties will not be met; low 20's perhaps.

Today is an Algorithm day it seems; my views on the stocks fundamentals are of high regard - the technicals are completely demolished.


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## beatle (4 October 2011)

Don't misunderstand me, RED is not traveling well at the moment due to factors completely outside of its own control, and probably will fall victim to those factors to have its price move south in the coming days/weeks.

BUT RED is at a pivotal time in its history. It is about to transform from gold explorer to gold producer. 

During the past year, as the A$ increased in value RED has gone through its high cost capital expenditure program, primarily in US$, and now most of that capex has been spent. That has meant RED has actually had the benefit of a strong A$ to minimise the cost of the development of its Siana gold project. In graphical terms if we look at the 2 year A$/US$ exchange rate you will notice that about the time of RED's capex spend (roughly 12 months ago) corresponded with A$ strengthening:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=USD&view=2Y

Now with RED almost at the time of it becoming a gold producer, the main cost elements relate to labour (generally factored in Philippines pesos) and fuel (US$ factored). Fortunately fuel prices are now falling, and whilst the pesos has improved against the A$ in the past month (in sympathy with the gradual improvement in the US$), each of those inputs to the future operating costs that RED will incur, will mean that RED will benefit with it being a relatively low operating cost producer, such that it can now benefit considerably with the increasing A$ denominated gold price:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=10Y

From this gold price graph you will note that in A$ terms gold continues upwards, and the operating margin between RED's operating cost base and the gross revenue is increasing. This augurs well for RED once in production.

While RED might be forced lower with the panic in the market at the moment, at some point it will spring back IMO, due to the positive cash flows it will be enjoying. AND I wouldn't mind betting that once we meet steady state production, IF the price doesn't move back up there is likely to be either a takeover by a mid-tiered gold producer OR RED management may actually put in a share buy-back...

Thus I retain considerable confidence that RED is a fantastic buy at these current low prices!


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## wtang89 (4 October 2011)

Morning All,

It looks like Beatle's hopes of a resource upgrade has been answered. New announcement for RED out. 1.3m Gold and 2.4m Silver (21% increase in gold), interesting times indeed. The last hurdle will be whether Red can churn out the gold and silver as scheduled and the gradual ramping up of production. Would be good to hear some news of the Marampa (been so long since Ive heard anything that it took me a second to remember the name).


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## anderbond (4 October 2011)

Hi wangt89,

It is Mapawa I think you mean. They have stopped drilling at Mapawa and are concentrating on Siana. Are now drilling some of the extensions. Expect more announcements in due course, although the coy reports abysmally slow assay turnaround, something that has been occurring over past couple of years.
Note there was no mention of any typhoon disruption in report. AB


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## wtang89 (4 October 2011)

Thanks AB for the correction, although that furthers my point as myself (and i guess more so for some of the newer members with an interest in Red) are slowly forgetting about Mapawa given the limited market updates/news. With that said, I think Red is holding up quite well amidst the current economic outlook. Keen to see this one through.


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## LostMyShirt (4 October 2011)

Wet weather hindered Mapawa progress so they moved machinery over to Siana to increase momentum on the project.

This Ann has come at a good time, and then at a bad one. Good, since the Gold price is up - bad since the market is taking a beating.


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## Dougs Antiques (4 October 2011)

Here is a look at RED from a different perspective here we have a chart on daily settings showing a decent incline over the last few months except for the last month or so it has broken south of its trend lines, this IMO makes RED a bargin at 16.5 cents and should be trading at about 22 cents.
As we can see RED is travelling in a sideways motion ATM


Now lets have a look from a different angle (a monthly chart)
As you can see this shows RED still trading inside its trendlines (just) but certainly not south of its trendlines and it could see trading of about 23 cents at some stage this month (im not saying that it will stay there but I personaly think that it will top out at these prices this month at some point in time).
RED has been on a steady incline (in a volitile market) on the monthly chart and I dont see any reason for this month to be any different.

Im open for discussion on this matter on a chartist point of veiw.
BTW I call the monthly chart the Beatle chart as it gets rid of all of the daily fluctuations that so many worry about
LATE NOVEMBER 1ST GOLD POUR!!!
I would like to see a new valuation by Beatle.
Clearly I hold a heap of RED.
DYOR
Cheers
Dougs Antiques


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## beatle (5 October 2011)

Hi All RED followers, and thanks for the charts DougsAntiques - just to get it correct though, although I don't mention it I do ride the daily emotions as it irks me that day by day RED is yet to go through its major re-rating of price despite it getting so close now to commissioning and first gold pour thereafter!

Great to see the announcement confirming a signficant upgrade to Siana resources yesterday, and various other confirmations that came with the announcement:
1. The overall pit depth could increase by around 100 metres, thereby deferring the underground development and delay underground mining by a couple (?) of years;
2. The confirmation that the plant is now rated at around 1.1mtpa --> increased throughput means lower cost per tonne.

What it will also mean is that the current cash flow model that I use will give a minimum estimate of valuation, not the true valuation estimate based on a revised production profile and cost forecast, until an update production schedule is announced (which is rarely the case by any miner).

At some time in the coming weeks I would expect the price of RED to reflect us moving towards production, unless the gold price deteriorates appreciably. As we have observed in the past week, the A$ has come off the boil as well and that has offset, almost on a 1 to 1 basis, the US$ gold price. And with the A$ coming off the RED share price has come off by about 12% in terms of US$ share price as a bonus for any US based insto interested to buy more shares.


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## geezuguys (5 October 2011)

Thanks Beatle for your synopsis of the resource upgrade announcement yesterday. Your 'between the lines' analysis is most informative.  

There is a new Petra Capital research report posted on the Red5 website which is well worth a look.  NPV 0f $0.37 per share.  Projected PE's of 4.4x in 2012, 2.3x in 2013, 1.6x 2014.

If anyone has insights into the way silver credits are treated when the company quotes cost of production of $360 per ounce (i.e. is it after silver credits?).  Would appreciate any insights re this.

Cheers
Geez


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## Dougs Antiques (6 October 2011)

Hi all, As you all will know RED had a 3 tick bounce up today on low volume...thats a great sign of those wanting RED, being prepared to pay more than the base price for it.
More importantly it meands that sellers are learning not to give it away so cheap.
IMO tomorrow will see 19 cents or more based on todays chart of supply and demand.
I done a bit of evaluating today and I found it all very promising (thats if I done it right, so please let me know if its not right)

So we have got meaured and indicated 1323325 ounces of gold and 1258380 ounces of silver.
And probable 464503 ounces of gold and 1167458 ounces of silver
And infered 857370 ounces of gold and 455512 ounces of silver
Total of 2744748 ounces of gold
Total of 288130 ounces of silver
At todays prices that is a staggering $4391596505 US dollars (so lets work with this figure and this doesnt include the sale price of the silver)
Lets say that production is a generous 25% of this figure $1097899126 US, this leaves a ballance of $3293697378 US.
Now lets give RED a 50% discount (which is more than plenty) just to allow for a volatile market and variations in gold and silver, now RED is worth $1646848689 (wow thats still a huge figure) divide this by the amount of shares which is 1283597526 this brings us to a share price of $1.28 US $1.33 AU
Would it be fair to say that this is likely in the next 12 months with all variables the same as they are today in 12 months time?
Im sure that im grosely wrong...... I think that I should just keep selling antiques and leave the stock valuations to others.
Anyhow here is todays chart and once again im open for discussion on all that ive posted here today.
Cheers
I hold RED
DYOR


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## Hurricane (6 October 2011)

Given there's another uptrend forming on low volume, what are your thoughts on a possible head and shoulders forming DA?


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## Dougs Antiques (6 October 2011)

Hurricane said:


> Given there's another uptrend forming on low volume, what are your thoughts on a possible head and shoulders forming DA?




IMO (and its not a professional one) in regards to a head and shoulders formation/reversal forming is a fair possability on the basis that the ASX was up over 3% today we could just as well see a 1 tick drop (3%) as easilly as a 2 tick rise (6%) im hoping that the sellers hold their cards close to their chest.
If the price action stays on even keel all day I woulndt be suprised to see some sell off late in the day creating the bottom of the shoulder/reversal.
If the day starts off strong I think that RED will go on with the task at hand and edge closer to my estimated target of 23 cents for trhis month.
I stand by my thoughts on the volume V rise today and if we have fair trading overnight with gold rising we will see a fair result tomorrow with RED as long as the sellers remain tight.
DYOR


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## Des P (7 October 2011)

I am hanging in there i had the chance to make %50 but decided to wait , indicators say this will be a mine that make a lot of people happy long term(sorry i have not added charts  still working on that to make it understandable) i am trying to come up with charts but it is proving difficult as i have minimal experience with shares, But i have built many mines over the years and this looks a goer 
Cheers
Des


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## dave1234 (7 October 2011)

Long time holder and lurker, first time poster.

Anyone catch this news? Google had more links. I believe it is S-E from the Siana operation?
http://www.pia.gov.ph/?m=1&t=1&id=57698


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## beatle (7 October 2011)

Dave - RED has complied with all environmental requirements, it has got full endorsement from the local community. It provides considerable financial support for a variety of different community based programs, including medical, dental, education, plus micro loans for small business enterprises, plus water purification and reticulation. It employs labour from each of the adjacent villages based on an agreed basis with the head person of each h village. There is no disputes whatsoever between RED and any of the groups referred to in that newsletter.

Geez- the operating cost of US$351/oz previously referred to in the feasibility study did not use silver credits, it was based on gold ounces alone. With the significant revision upwards in gold in resource it is likely there will also be an increase in a revised mining reserve, using the lower cutoff grade of 0.8 g/t for open pit ore. As a consequence this will result in an increase in the overall operating cost $/oz, but the overall economics of the revised mining schedule will provide an overall higher NPV (and thus higher valuation for Siana value in RED share price). I hope that RED will publish the revised mining schedule and associated costs, but its not usual practice by mining companies to provide so much detail - since RED trades at a considerable discount to its NPV I believe its in RED's best interest to publish it for us to know exactly the expected gold/silver production on a yearly basis less costs forecast.

(Geez, thanks for providing the fact that the Petra Report and valuation is now on the RED website - DougsAntiques, if you look at that valuation will note Petra's valuation of Siana is 35 cents per share, which is based on valuing Siana gold/silver production discounted for time value of money - your analysis is what I would prefer but isn't correct unfortunately, lol). By the way, I believe that Petra's valuation is undervaluing RED, but its a start!


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## anderbond (7 October 2011)

Hi RED fans, Bell Potter has released an updated 12 months target price of 30 cents (previously 28 cents), using a 1.2 multiple of NPV and based on US$1,000 per oz and AUD/USD of 0.85. If USD$1,500 per oz and AUD/USD of 1.00 then price target rises to 38 cents which is close to the Petra target. Cheers AB


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## dave1234 (7 October 2011)

Beatle, thanks for the info. I wasn't worried, just found the info interesting. I have noted in previous company docos that they were working with local communities but you know how lots of companies sprout that stuff to get a warm fuzzy feeling


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## beatle (7 October 2011)

No problem Dave, and its a fair concern if people don't know the true situation. 

I have been onsite now 4 times, the most recent time just a short time ago, and it has always been a prime consideration for me and anyone investing in the Philippines. I can confirm also that I did speak directly with a few different board/management people in the past day to confirm the situation, that's why I made the comment that the company has not been approached the relevant group.

As additional background, Siana is an old mine and at the time of its abandonement in 1989 was left in a fairly ordinary state of disrepair, with old equipment, stockpiles and tails dumps left without a long term thought in mind. With RED now onsite and being onsite since late 2003 they have improved the overall scene on the previously disturbed footprint of old works, and they have got a fully integrated environmental plan for the future area after mining. Additionally since there has been no need to disturb any primary forested areas, just deepening and broadening the existing pit on already cleared areas, RED has a good head start compared to projects involved elsewhere that require large scale strip mining (such as with Taganito).


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## jancha (7 October 2011)

Selling gold to bailout Europe

There’s been quite a few worst-case scenarios presented for the European debt crisis, but here’s one gold bugs will not like, says Christopher Georgopoulos on Minyanville. Credit default swap levels are telling us there is an almost certainty that Greece will default. There will come a point when the Greeks have sold and cut everything possible and its people will “scream for an exit” from the eurozone. Global markets are pricing in this possibility, but not the much more serious repercussions it will cause. A Greek default would have a domino effect hitting Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain requiring trillions of bailout money that simply isn’t there. Here’s where gold comes in. A default would essentially bankrupt the European Central Bank and Germany would be asked to top up liquidity. The only readily available source is Germany’s 3400 tons of gold they have in reserves. Central bank sales of gold on this scale will send gold significantly lower with little prospect of a recovery anytime soon.

Any comments as it would effect RED sp? This could explain the sell off a few weeks back.


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## beatle (7 October 2011)

Hi Jancha, an interesting article, I've read various sorts of commentaries over the years and of course its a good way to scare the pants off us share investors in gold stocks! Although I'm not sure if its completely correct for this RED thread I thought I would make some comments, both with respect to RED and the general strategy of selling central bank gold sales etc.

With respect to RED, as we know, it is forecast to be a gold producer at Siana sitting within the lower quartile of operating costs for gold producers (currently US$351/oz), based on the current Base Case Feasibility Study. We are now aware that there will be a significant increase in overall gold production scheduled within a new reserve, to be announced, and that will be accompanied with a new operating cost yet to be announced - thus whilst its uncertain whether the increase in its forecast operating cost will take it significantly higher in costs, it is unlikely to be more than US$600/oz). AND that increase in operating cost will be accompanied by a more than signficant increase in revenue thereby delivering a higher overall NPV for RED for Siana.

IF gold price is to reduce to a level of US$1,000/oz, either through some mechanism related to large central bank sales or other reason, then its the higher end of the spectrum of gold producers to stop production, not the lower end of the operating cost curve, with producers such as RED. AND at US$1,000/oz and aprobable drop of A$:US$ to boo in the event of such a dropt, RED will not only remain profitable but remain having an NPV MORE than its current share price of 18 cents!!!

Now back to this particular strategy of Germany selling its entire gold reserves to solve this Greek problem. Not all, but a lot of central bank gold sales do result from bank to bank negotiations, without any intervention or knowledge of the market. IF there was a hint of such sales likely then market would drop the gold price like a brick, and would therefore would not achieve the value that is required to solve the money requirements aimed by the sale. 

Now lets get down to the actual value of 3,400 tonnes of gold (and I had to think this through very carefully as the numbers and zeros are hard to come to grips with):

Just for those also finding it hard to cope with the numbers-
1 x 10 to the 3rd power = thousand
1 x 10 to the 6th power = million
1 x 10 to the 9th power = billion
1 x 10 to the 12th power = trillion

3,400 tonnes = 3.4 x 10 to the power of 9 (in grams)
           = 1.09 x 10 to the power of 8 (in ounces)

at US$1,650/oz the value of 3,400 tonnes of gold = US$ 180,385,852,090 
= $0.18 trillion

At the moment it is suggested that Greek requires around Euro 480 billion (at Euro 1.34 to the US$ this equates to US$134 billion) to sort out its debt problem (for the short term). This means that selling Germany's entire gold bullion (if it is 3,400 tonnes of gold) would remain seriously short of the solution. Of course this also demonstrates the real size of the problem, but also proves that such a large gold sale would not solve the problem.

Any other thoughts or criticisms I'm happy to hear from you.

I still think that RED is substantially undervalued, certainly Bells valuation of around 37 cents is closer than its current 18 cents, but for me it should trade at a premium to 37 cents once in gold production. And that is now less than 8 weeks from now!!!


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## LostMyShirt (7 October 2011)

When was this article written?

It can and will affect the share price of RED if the price of gold plummets - but will still see a valuation way above the current levels.

In my opinion the artciel is merely speculation in terms of severity - I don't think a large institution is going to liquify gold assets in such a large bulk bid that the price would be an over night plummet.


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## mgm1a (7 October 2011)

geez - somewhere they disclose using Ag$11/oz within their numbers, I will osurce as I had used in my model.

beatle – thanks for info. Having learnt of rebel attacks, and being heavily overweight here based on conviction, I have sold 90% of my holding yesterday. It was a most distressing decision as I had invested many hours researching and checking events for 2 years with all the ups and downs and was comfortable with the company. I am still emotionally uneasy about doing so but the risk from a black swan event like these thugs seems all too real given that Claver is not that far away from Siana. Making it worst is thinking of my lost profits from 24c not so long ago. Now seeking another high grade low cost mine, but there ain’t that many.

I had tried contacting the company for comment on this risk but GE hasn’t replied to email. 
The story may have further to run:
http://www.sfexaminer.com/news/2011/10/japan-australia-worry-over-filipino-mine-attacks


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## LostMyShirt (7 October 2011)

According to the Rebels the attacks were due to the lack of communication between the REbel representative and the copper mining company in regards to allegation of environmental destruction and the non-compliance with the "policy" the Maoists have pertaining to environmental preservation and the mistreatment (on some level) of the local workers.

Seeing as RED boast their operations e-friendliness, community programs and overall approval of the people in the area - I don't think the rebels have a reason to attack.


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## beatle (7 October 2011)

Mgm1a, I'm sad to hear of your decision to sell out (presumably you still hold around 10% of your previous investment?), it clearly must have been a big decision for you to make.

I do understand your concerns and I confirm that as soon as I became aware of the incidents I had communications with CJ, GE and CFO in Perth. It was as a result of those discussions, plus my most recent visit to site that has kept me comfortable that RED's situation is not at all similar to those Japanese groups operating the nickel operation at Taganito. In the case of RED it has established programs and processes to ensure that the local communities within the Siana area are very well catered for in terms of employment opportunities as well as community based programs for health, education, water and micro finance. During both the construction phase as well as the operations phase RED has agreed certain criteria to ensure that the local community provides a majority of labour, and in fact there are currently 4 females employed as truck drivers onsite - all contractors must comply with those employment arrangements.

In fact when I was onsite recently I visited such a family within the local community (not directly employed by the company) and it was clear that RED (or actually Greenstone as it is referred to onsite, being the Philippine subsidiary) is held in very high regard. The development has reinvigorated an area that was substantially suffering after mining was ceased at the end of 1989, and there has been a flow on far beyond those directly involved with the operation.


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## mgm1a (9 October 2011)

I have rechecked valuation, 33c using conservative numbers.
My research notes - holders will know, but may be useful for new comers, updated at:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/11l7pS_GyI-iiif3f_78QEbeOUtvt9WKfe0SFfiS8oEM/edit?hl=en_GB


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## mr. jeff (9 October 2011)

My valuation of RED shares is 18c at the moment.

A lot of unknowns out there and a very uncertain market.
There are a lot of stocks trading at these great discounts at the moment.
Pun intended. Red looks good at the moment but there are IF's.

Are we going to see any exploration and expansion outside of Siana?  I know it has been said the focus is on achieving production from Siana, but I am sure that management knows the next direction for the company...anyone ? 
Mapawa sounds less prospective than a lot of ground out there.

What will they do with the gold they produce? Just build cash, gold banking....??
Once production is steady and proven, it could get very quiet (excepting a takeover) otherwise. 

(I do not write this to antagonize or inflame, I hold and will continue to do so, plus it appears that gold will be favoured for a while yet, so prospects are good for RED)


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## fastbuck1 (9 October 2011)

mgm1a said:


> I have rechecked valuation, 33c using conservative numbers.
> My research notes - holders will know, but may be useful for new comers, updated at:
> https://docs.google.com/document/d/11l7pS_GyI-iiif3f_78QEbeOUtvt9WKfe0SFfiS8oEM/edit?hl=en_GB




i very much doubt there will be any troubel with rebels, after hiting 3 other mines philippine authority's will now be on the hunt, not to mention local employed now red5 mine workers wont want there income jeopardized ,it will be all eyes out for trouble makers......


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## Starcraftmazter (10 October 2011)

Re: Dougs Antiques, I do not believe that RED can reach your SP projection in the current bear market. However a very strong and sharp gold rally could take us a fair way there in my view.



jancha said:


> Selling gold to bailout Europe
> 
> There’s been quite a few worst-case scenarios presented for the European debt crisis, but here’s one gold bugs will not like, says Christopher Georgopoulos on Minyanville. Credit default swap levels are telling us there is an almost certainty that Greece will default. There will come a point when the Greeks have sold and cut everything possible and its people will “scream for an exit” from the eurozone. Global markets are pricing in this possibility, but not the much more serious repercussions it will cause. A Greek default would have a domino effect hitting Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain requiring trillions of bailout money that simply isn’t there. Here’s where gold comes in. A default would essentially bankrupt the European Central Bank and Germany would be asked to top up liquidity. The only readily available source is Germany’s 3400 tons of gold they have in reserves. Central bank sales of gold on this scale will send gold significantly lower with little prospect of a recovery anytime soon.
> 
> Any comments as it would effect RED sp? This could explain the sell off a few weeks back.




I'm quite familiar with the EU situation and other related matters; if you think that Germany will consider selling even 1% of their gold to help the PIIGS, then you are incorrect. I would bet any amount of money on this.

Broadly speaking, no central bank of any country is going to be selling gold anytime soon. There is a very real chance that fiat currency will either collapse altogether or undergo significant inflation in the medium term, at which point national gold reserves are going to become incredibly important.

No country, no matter how desperate is going to exchange any amount of gold for paper money anytime soon.

A lot of people have grown up and lived most of their lives with fiat currency, they do not understand that the current iteration thereof is a mere less than 40 year old experiment which was rushed into the world's financial system in panic as a result of a crisis. Gold has never been more valuable to hold.

But even if anyone was to give up gold, it would never be exchanged on the open market - rather it would merely be privately exchanged for the liabilities of the seller.


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## Dougs Antiques (11 October 2011)

Hi all, RED is looking good and strong atm, sellers are being tight (rising by 2 ticks on low volume yesterday....reversal from friday)
Gold is into a good rally.
S&P 500 is up by 3.41% overnight.
Today has the formula to be a real pearler and head closer to my monthly target of 22c to 23c
Good luck to all RED holders
I hold
DYOR


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## Dougs Antiques (11 October 2011)

Here is a chart to reinforce my veiws:



Cheers


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## beatle (11 October 2011)

DougsAntiques, great overnight trading by the US markets plus gold strengthening are both great signs for the overall ASX and RED, but RED remains highly discounted to NPV on any basis - and whilst I consider Mgm1a's valuation conservative it certainly goes some way to suggest that RED has a long way to go in the next couple of months. His commentary and general analysis was a very good summary.

Mr Jeff, not sure on what basis you pass judgement of valuation, clearly its not related to fundamental analysis and cash flow valuation, nor on a P/E and EPS basis? On the former RED remains discounted from a valuation around 30 - 40 cents per share, depending upon what gold prices you want to use longer term, and on a latter basis it could trade at 60 - 70 cents per share. And given that most longer term lower cost gold companies trade at a premium to fundamental value, once in gold  production RED could easily move above 40 cents per share! 

Remember we are now only about 6 weeks from first production, thus unless there is a huge drop out in gold price or share prices in the general market RED certainly will break through its bogey price of 24 cents this time IMO.


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## Moit (11 October 2011)

Hi all RED club members. 

Beatle you are absolutely right about Mgmla and his commentary on RED. In my opinion it was nothing short of brilliant. What i cant understand, is why he would write such a detailed report and then sell out 90% of his stock a couple of days later. Especially so close to game time. I know circumstances change i just cant understand why... It must have been a very difficult decision to make as i know how emotionally involved i am.

What i really want to know is, with six or so weeks to go, when is the big race about to start. I'm guessing the monthly construction update or that inevitable commissioning date..

 But anyhow i have been with RED just shy of 2 years now and this is what i / we, have all been waiting for. I have never sold a single share and definitely not about to start.. RED is looking great for a big run up imo. Go RED


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## geezuguys (11 October 2011)

Latest photos on Red5 website gallery.


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## LostMyShirt (11 October 2011)

Looking at the 6 Month Daily for RED; I see a few things that are in my view positive.

The cross of the MACD pointing up towards the Zero point average is a decent enough buy signal - though skeptical considering the current price, and backed up by the stochastic indicator toping out into the oversold region.

The volume today was average, which is a good thing coupling in the price movement. I believe this is showing me that RED's securities onthe market are back into the same momentum that was experienced from July to early September. Another factor backing up my thoughts is the return of the buy:sell ratio of an approximate 2:1.

Tomorrows action is going to be internesting. We are curently at an old resistence level experienced on the 16th Sept to the 21st. If we break out of this one, then a run up to 24c is not going to be a far fetched analysis. There should be some profit taking this week, and a very slight retrace considering the stochastic indicator has to dip at some point, before the run up to break resistence of 21c. Stochastics don't _have_ to dip, and if it doesnt and continues at this rate, the run up to 24c will almost be a vertical line! Hey, why not? I wouldn't complain...


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## Dougs Antiques (11 October 2011)

Here are my veiws from current charts.
Today was a good day as predicted (probably better than good from a traders point of veiw)
Today we saw a fair gain with a GAP UP on HIGHER VOLUME with the MACD confirming all of the above.
The GAP UP along with HIGHER VOLUME will trigger a BUY signal with particular searches by traders using metastock etc (only if it fits the criteria) which i know a lot of traders do search for (me included).
With this knoledge in hand I would expect a strong open tomorrow as long as gold holds up overnight.


My 
I hold 
DYOR


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## LostMyShirt (12 October 2011)

I would have liked you to be correct, Doug - but the matter remained unheeded of the second level resistance tested at 21c.

I expected a consolidation today - it would have been nieve to assume the sp would move up in a straight line considering the momentum displayed on the initial run up to 24c.

All indicators are looking good and I do expct a breach of the 21c bracket, hopefully this week but am skeptical of a re-test of the 165c support level.


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## beatle (12 October 2011)

HI Moit, I agree with your sentiment re RED and am glad to see you are also enjoying the move back up as we both expect it should. When it moves to tackle that resistance level of 24 cents (forget the 21/22 cents level IMO thats not a big issue) is a matter of time, but more in terms of weeks than months now - we are in the final throes of completing plant construction prior to commisssioning and the impending first gold pour, likely within the next 6 weeks.

With regard to the latest photos on the RED website (thanks for letting us know they are now posted Geez) I should point out that the pit dewatering is now at a stage where they are awaiting for the plant commissioning - the last dregs of this more slurry-like water is being used for the initial wet commissioning tests and may provide a skeric of gold in the process.

I understand that both the Chairman and MD have just begun a London/North American roadshow, and we should see the results of that with trading in the coming week hopefully. Its good timing for that trip as later this month the commissioning is likely to commence, as well as decisions being made re any variations to the initial mining plan and reserves as a result of the upgraded resource recently announced, and also the Quarterly Report is due as well.

And then in November we can expect news to build up with the expected startup of gold production, and of course the AGM late November. Then hopefully a formal mine opening onsite at Siana in early December. So many things to look forward to...


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## Dougs Antiques (12 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I would have liked you to be correct, Doug - but the matter remained unheeded of the second level resistance tested at 21c.
> 
> I expected a consolidation today - it would have been nieve to assume the sp would move up in a straight line considering the momentum displayed on the initial run up to 24c.
> 
> All indicators are looking good and I do expct a breach of the 21c bracket, hopefully this week but am skeptical of a re-test of the 165c support level.




WOW how wrong was I but a half decent bounce back up this afternoon was good to see.
Obviously profit takers as you predicted.
On open I considered selling at 20 cents to rebuy at 19 cents or less today but I didnt in fear of a rebound late morning, all in all im glad that I didnt take the risk.
Well it seems like the profit takers have taken their profit.
I havent looked at any charts yet today as im still at work in the shop so I will have a good hard look at it all tonight.
Beatle there is a lot of news on the agenda and I think thate late this month to early next month will be awsome for RED holders.
Cheers 
DYOR


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## Starcraftmazter (13 October 2011)

The pullback was very expected, momentum completely tried up at the end of tuesday, and trades at the last price for tuesday were very low volume - RED just got a little bit ahead of itself for that day. I surely hope nobody sold yesterday (wednesday)!


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## jah008 (13 October 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> The pullback was very expected, momentum completely tried up at the end of tuesday, and trades at the last price for tuesday were very low volume - RED just got a little bit ahead of itself for that day. I surely hope nobody sold yesterday (wednesday)!




I agree. I expected a bit of consolidation yesterday. I thought it would drop more then just half a cent tho. I'm expecting RED to push to 22 cents today.


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## beatle (13 October 2011)

Jah008, I agree that from a trading point of view it looks like the pullback seemed to be cut short, and I wouldn't mind betting that the current roadshow, starting in London yesterday and then moving on to North America will restrict any significant pullbacks in the coming week - I suggest you don't consider trying to make a 0.5-1.0 cent turn Doug cos you might find yourself outside looking in! 

All aboard, the train is about to leave the station (to quote someone famous like Confucious - I think it was ... Fastbuck, lol).

Go RED UPPPP


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## mr. jeff (13 October 2011)

Typically when a the excitement gets very serious the pro's know to start selling to those that are excited.

This is why I stated that when the shares were 18c I consider them to be worth 18c, to try and remind people that you cannot sell a share for 34c just because it is worth it - it does certainly seem undervalued,  I value the production of expected around 85kOz in a riskier environment to be worth around 330M market cap without further significant exploration upside. Work that out yourself, I know there may be false assumptions, it is much easier to take a profit in a rising market.

Hence why I am looking beyond the mine opening for the future extension of RED's great recent efforts in getting this mine open and producing. Congratulations for that effort and result (may be early but most likely won't need to eat my words).
I don't want to see RED place so much emphasis on Siana that when they achieve first pour and then steady state, there is no further excitement! So fill us in - anyone who has researched - what are plans past the end of this year?

I only post this to try and develop the discussion, not to make anyone sell. I hold and am not looking to exit.
One further positive observation, the POG broke a key level in my view last night and is making higher highs, so it looks as though this may continue the current tone.


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## beatle (13 October 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> My valuation of RED shares is 18c at the moment.




Thanks Mr Jeff, I raised the question of you only to understand how you made that valuation. But I guess we are mixing the words "valuation" with "worth", and in your last post you are quite right, that at the moment you can't get 34 cents for RED regardless of what the underlying fundamental value is. I suggest that once the project is producing gold, thus the commissioning/operations risk is removed/reduced we should see RED move closer towards that value. And by the way, I haven't seen any significant valuation placed on any of RED's other exploration assets, italmost completely relates to Siana, as a significant gold producer. Cash after capital expenditure will be just over 1 cents per share prior to cash flows from gold sales.

Regarding RED's exploration, Mapawa has been put on the sidelines, personally I think its a combination of wanting to put more focus back on the resources/reserves about Siana to resolve the future mine plan and scheduling, plus the last Mapawa holes didn't get the hits that were hoped for. Thus it will require more investigative work prior to getting back into the program - remember that RED did point out that the locus of mineralisation at Mapawa may well be deeper than first thought, although the first holes seems to have been lost in that thinking as the mineralisation started not too deep and with long intercepts.

I am excited by some of the other exploration targets about both Siana and Mapawa MPSA's that have had scant exploration work to date (recall the last surface sampling at Mapawa that demonstrated lots of significant assay results of gold plus base metals). And once the production starts with large positive cash flows monthly we can expect lots of work and results coming forth. In addition, who knows what RED might do with the other excess cash ...

As to your comments about the future gold price, not sure how it looks like technically, but its looking good at the moment based on the fact that the US market is now starting to get back on the bandwagon of assuming the economy needs more quantitative easing, thus US$ is weakening and a possibility of QE3 being announced soon.


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## Moit (13 October 2011)

Hi all, hi Mr Jeff.

I must have been one of those excited ones you were talking about. As i bought today.

I have had bids in for quiet some time now, but issues have kept popping there little heads up. Anyhow i bit the bullet, and may have paid top dollar, (so to speak), but as we all know RED is still extremely undervalued. 

In time we will look back at this current price and realize how cheap 20 odd cents actually was...

OK Beatle now RED can go up, LOL.


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## LostMyShirt (13 October 2011)

Moit said:


> Hi all, hi Mr Jeff.
> 
> I must have been one of those excited ones you were talking about. As i bought today.
> 
> ...





Todays price action was not suprising. The Volume was below average and an equal match between the bulls and bears. I hope that this Doji today does not signal yet another reversal.

If we manage to close at or above 21cps there will be a fresh run to 24cps. However I would like to add that this Doji can easily be a continuation, and that the equal buying and selling pressure _considering_ the prices purchased with little added to the bids could easily mean profits were taken by the short termers and bought up by the long termers. Providing I am at least partially correct, the long term sentiment would be a positive indicator for a steady incline.


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## Starcraftmazter (13 October 2011)

The buyer pressure is starting to grow again, I'm still quite optimistic. There's no reason for a pullback all else being equal, and Slovakia seems to have dealt with their problems, so no run to the USD anytime overly soon.

All looks good.


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## LostMyShirt (13 October 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> The buyer pressure is starting to grow again, I'm still quite optimistic. There's no reason for a pullback all else being equal, and Slovakia seems to have dealt with their problems, so no run to the USD anytime overly soon.
> 
> All looks good.




You don't think we will get a dip? Well, I'd preffer it that way, all in all.  I'm just looking at the trend support and thinking to myself that it won't hold out. If it rises too high too fast then expect a correction and it won't be pretty, but not as bad as the earlier one, yikes!

I am only speculating as the daily is painting a too good to be true picture for me. Everything is bullish - plainly and simpley bullish. Perhaps we will see 24c much sooner than we anticipated and have a well established support in the under 24's. 

Everyone who topped up at the sub 20 level, good on you all. Well played.


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## Dougs Antiques (13 October 2011)

IMO the markets have no logic ATM 
RED has had a fine week so far so when the majority say it will continue I will tip a reversal back to 19 cents.
This isnt being pesimistic just a realist.
IMO the most that RED will see in the next 6 weeks is 24.5 cents (35 cents with a 30% discount based on a volatlie market with plenty of bargins out there, discounted a lot more than 30%)
My


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## LostMyShirt (13 October 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> IMO the markets have no logic ATM
> RED has had a fine week so far so when the majority say it will continue I will tip a reversal back to 19 cents.
> This isnt being pesimistic just a realist.
> IMO the most that RED will see in the next 6 weeks is 24.5 cents (35 cents with a 30% discount based on a volatlie market with plenty of bargins out there, discounted a lot more than 30%)
> My




You think that will be the most? I don't blame you at all - 24cps is the next resistance price and also 52 week high. However I believe we will see a jolt nearing November's Pour and I estimate the price to be 0.275cps based purely on momentum and daily price action coupled with the pour announcement being priced in. 

Now you got me thinking, Doug. Take a short at 24cps?  haha


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## Starcraftmazter (13 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> You don't think we will get a dip? Well, I'd preffer it that way, all in all.  I'm just looking at the trend support and thinking to myself that it won't hold out. If it rises too high too fast then expect a correction and it won't be pretty, but not as bad as the earlier one, yikes!




Sorry just to clarify, I don't mean the stock will literally do nothing but head up for the next couple of months with some very minor falls, of course there could be corrections.

But unlike previously, at this stage, given the information that is out (and this course of course change in the blink of an eye), given my predictions, I do not see anything _major_, so as you say any future correction in the next 1-2 months, in my view, will not be very significant.


For the last few months, I have been trading RED pretty short term, sometimes a few hours, sometimes a few days. My latest buy was at the beginning of this month, and at this stage, I feel comfortable enough holding until some significant event happens or significant news comes in (negative), regardless of upwards/downward sp movements. In my view there will be far more upside in the coming 2 months (again, given nothing majorly bad happens - but I do not expect it to) than downside.


Of course I am still watching RED and gold prices and news like a hawk. Make no mistake, there are still risks. If the EU decide for Greece to default at the G20 summit next month for instance, that in my view has the potential to be quite bad (flight of euros going to the US, gold price tanks, markets tank - double wammy). But this is just one possibility. It could be that the EU decide for Greece to default, and bring out a massive package to recapitalise banks, ensure growth in the periphery and commit to greater fiscal unity in some way. This could be seen as very good. Of course they may just elect to do not much of anything apart from commit to recapitalising troubled banks only, which may well be enough.

That single event and decision is the only thing on my mind right now, overall gold is in an uptrend and nothing is going to change that - but depending on what happens with greece, the uptrend might suffer a setback, and/or the market might suffer a setback.

Apart from that, there is not much else that in my view will have a major impact on RED in the short term of the next 1-2 months.

I am still of the view that the market is in a dead cat bounce, but there's nothing to say it won't last into next year, taking RED with it, and keeping gold up.


This is just my analysis and opinions. I am confident well enough that RED has strong fundamentals and should be priced higher, and so I tend to try and see the overall picture of the global economy and markets in the hopes of figuring out how it will affect RED's sp. Same for all of my picks.

Lastly, if the ASX gets over 4300 with strength, I will also add to my position, as I consider that being a strong short-term signal.


Happy investing everyone, I do truly hope the long-term investors get a big present for Christmas.


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## beatle (14 October 2011)

Hi all RED followers,

I just wanted to commend Starcraftmazter, LostHISShirt (lol), etc for the ongoing commentary re the technical interpretation of RED and other related matters we should all consider going forward. Whilst the commentary tends to be more about the micro-moves of RED on a daily basis it certainly gives me more to think about each day, as I count down the days to first and continuing gold production by RED at Siana.

I guess it doesn't need for me to say (repeat) that I firmly believe that RED WILL go through a considerable re-rating in the coming weeks/months as the general market recognises Siana as a long life, low cost gold producter. Its such a shame that we are now in a time with considerable uncertainties in the general market, caused by events such as a possible Greek default (likely I would think) and the potential for ripple effects through the euro zone. I am heartened to see that the US dollar has once again begun to weaken, which suggests to me that the gold price should remain within its current band, and the potential to increase appreciably if US were (I would consider most likely) to announce QE3.

I'm also heartened with us approaching the festive season that gold is likely to rise, as it tends to do at this time - borrowing costs tend to increase appreciably caused by a higher demand for physical metal, and I can't see this christmas being anything different.

And whilst RED is not different to any stock in having its ups and downs, and this will remain in coming weeks, I'm very confident there will be more ups than downs, with an overall increase in RED share price (appreciably!).


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## mr. jeff (14 October 2011)

Gold - continuing it's comfortable move. Note the past over excitement.
Daily chart...sorry about the lack of timeline.


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## LostMyShirt (14 October 2011)

Hahaha Beatle - my nickname must bring you a nice laugh every now and then haha. No need to thank me, I look at RED daily with much interest.

Star - You make solid points mate, and I have heeded each and every one.

Jeff - Thanks for the chart, I am also looking at it with keen interested trying to gauge sentiment. Long term up is, well, up  Though I know the rise is not infinite - Gold seems to be a superior currency at the moment.


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## Dougs Antiques (14 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> You think that will be the most? I don't blame you at all - 24cps is the next resistance price and also 52 week high. However I believe we will see a jolt nearing November's Pour and I estimate the price to be 0.275cps based purely on momentum and daily price action coupled with the pour announcement being priced in.
> 
> Now you got me thinking, Doug. Take a short at 24cps?  haha




I think that RED will see a bad day some time in the next 2 weeks so today I sold 50% of my holdings and I lay in wait for the drop to happen.
If it doesnt happen im still happy with what im holding, and if it does happen I get to take advantage of it. Good or bad that was my decision
Just for the record without my trade today volume would have been below 1M.
Next week is another week.
Good luck to all RED holders


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## Dougs Antiques (15 October 2011)

That didnt quite read as it was intended (I was quite sleepy at the time).
Its obvious that RED will have a bad day but I expect to see a few consecutive bad days and thats when I will top back up.
The problem is going to be trying to identify the best buy.
If i miss out thats fine aswell as im happy with my holding.
DYOR


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## LostMyShirt (15 October 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> That didnt quite read as it was intended (I was quite sleepy at the time).
> Its obvious that RED will have a bad day but I expect to see a few consecutive bad days and thats when I will top back up.
> The problem is going to be trying to identify the best buy.
> If i miss out thats fine aswell as im happy with my holding.
> DYOR




Well there are always going to be dips to buy into imo - that trait has been established quite well on the initial run up to 24cps. I guess I don't really have the guts to sell high buy low with this stock, and I am worried about getting my order filled all the time. So what I've done is taken a heap of shares at the support of 0.165cps and sold them out at 0.20cps, but left a sufficient amount in there for long term outlook.

If you guys are able to buy in the dips, I applaud and envy you. I also wish you the utmost prosperity.

In my honest opinion, without wanting to get anyone here over excited - I believe the run up to 24cps will come sooner than later, and I am wishing for a support level to be established strongly in the low 20's.


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## Dougs Antiques (15 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Well there are always going to be dips to buy into imo - that trait has been established quite well on the initial run up to 24cps. I guess I don't really have the guts to sell high buy low with this stock, and I am worried about getting my order filled all the time. So what I've done is taken a heap of shares at the support of 0.165cps and sold them out at 0.20cps, but left a sufficient amount in there for long term outlook.
> 
> If you guys are able to buy in the dips, I applaud and envy you. I also wish you the utmost prosperity.
> 
> In my honest opinion, without wanting to get anyone here over excited - I believe the run up to 24cps will come sooner than later, and I am wishing for a support level to be established strongly in the low 20's.




With all due respect (which I have a lot of with those involved in this thread) im happy with my current holdings.
In saying that I do wish to top up at a 1.5 to 2.0 cent drop....thats just what I do and it works for me most of the time.
I have about 50 companies from varied areas in my watch list and anyalise all of them daily but at the moment RED is the best bet on the charts, in saying this im not saying that there isnt better out there but RED has got more posatives than most and im just trying to make the most of it before early December.
Its always a gamble to sell off 50% of something that you know is a good thing, but I believe that ATM 21.5 cents is a major hurdle with market sentiment and 19 cents is a distinct probability in the next week or 2
Cheers 
Doug


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## LostMyShirt (16 October 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> With all due respect (which I have a lot of with those involved in this thread) im happy with my current holdings.
> In saying that I do wish to top up at a 1.5 to 2.0 cent drop....thats just what I do and it works for me most of the time.
> I have about 50 companies from varied areas in my watch list and anyalise all of them daily but at the moment RED is the best bet on the charts, in saying this im not saying that there isnt better out there but RED has got more posatives than most and im just trying to make the most of it before early December.
> Its always a gamble to sell off 50% of something that you know is a good thing, but I believe that ATM 21.5 cents is a major hurdle with market sentiment and 19 cents is a distinct probability in the next week or 2
> ...




Yes, Doug; I applaud your strategy, perhaps it is something I should try. I did sell of a large quantity of original holdings but still have a stake in there of sufficient proportion.

There is basis to your theory, and I think you are correct. There will be a dip. There are those who are buying into those dips and making rake from these moves, which is another strategy I do appluad.

I'm taking a look at the RED5 Chart now, as I hunt for technical buys a lot of the day - I can see by scale it is outperforming the XAO, but this week has had a huge effect on RED5's stock, so the up move can be attributed, in my opinion, to market sentiment returning for an unknown term. I am hoping it is much more than that, so as to add some basis to the move being legitimate buyer interest in a decent company.

We have had three goes, and three failures trying to breach the 21cps resistence level, and it is becoming fairly solid. 

All I know now is that the show will begin soon


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## Starcraftmazter (16 October 2011)

The above posts is precisely why I think there will be slightly more stability in the stock in the near term; because any downward movement will have a lot of buyers mobilising. This happened even on Friday.

This is why I think only major events or movements within the XAO will upset RED's uptrend. The next issue is trying to predict them.



beatle said:


> Its such a shame that we are now in a time with considerable uncertainties in the general market, caused by events such as a possible Greek default (likely I would think) and the potential for ripple effects through the euro zone.




Pretty much my thoughts on the matter. This will definitely be more inconvenient than otherwise.


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## beatle (17 October 2011)

Hi All RED followers,

I've followed the common theme of your posts in recent days, seems like the general consensus is that RED is a good trading stock at the moment, with movements demonstrating its historical pullbacks to certain levels. And clearly that has been a good strategy in the past for you all, therefore it can't be faulted historically.

My one suggestion is that you consider not selling more than you would like to hold if there is a serious re-rating, as I firmly believe that there will be a time soon but obviously hard to pick what will trigger it, when RED goes for a bigger run UP. That should occur within the next month though IMO.


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## LostMyShirt (17 October 2011)

beatle said:


> Hi All RED followers,
> 
> I've followed the common theme of your posts in recent days, seems like the general consensus is that RED is a good trading stock at the moment, with movements demonstrating its historical pullbacks to certain levels. And clearly that has been a good strategy in the past for you all, therefore it can't be faulted historically.
> 
> My one suggestion is that you consider not selling more than you would like to hold if there is a serious re-rating, as I firmly believe that there will be a time soon but obviously hard to pick what will trigger it, when RED goes for a bigger run UP. That should occur within the next month though IMO.




Wise words, Beatle. I had done just that.

I wanted to take on some profits, but knew quite well (Assumed rather) that there is going to be more movement in the stock, so in turn I kept a sufficient amount of holdings, though not as large as it once was.

Todays open was quite nice - it was good to see the 21cps level broken through, even if for only a moment it still is a good indicator. I will have a crack at the end of day chart once all is said and done.


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## Moit (17 October 2011)

Hi all RED club members.

It seems as though today will again be a day of low volume. Its like the buyers don't want to pay to much for the stock, or are waiting for an announcement before they pounce. But in saying that the sellers aren't give RED away to cheaply either.

Its a bit like butting heads at the moment, , just waiting for that inevitable gold pour. Just my thoughts...

Cheers Moit.


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## LostMyShirt (17 October 2011)

Moit said:


> Hi all RED club members.
> 
> It seems as though today will again be a day of low volume. Its like the buyers don't want to pay to much for the stock, or are waiting for an announcement before they pounce. But in saying that the sellers aren't give RED away to cheaply either.
> 
> ...




I considered todays open quite good Moit - it tells a story that is worth hearing.

Low Volume with buying = Lack of supply at these prices. Then again, unloads at 21cps are rampant this morning, the buyers are getting their orders filled quick smart. If the selling continues into the bids on a notch lower then perhaps I'll rerate the day.

In my opinion this means we have a large amount of holdouts who are waiting for the Announcements etc. before they unleash the dragon on the stock.


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## beatle (17 October 2011)

LostHisShirt, when you say "In my opinion this means we have a large amount of holdouts who are waiting for the Announcements etc. before they unleash the dragon on the stock.", do you mean that you think there is a considerable amount of holders waiting for the chance to dump but at a higher price?

I'm hoping that holders will realise that in fact RED will not only get a re-rating based on fundamentals, but also will be a longer term hold as we begin a new phase of the company's existence and the realisation that in due course it will be trading from a base of around p/e = 3 or thereabouts (depending of course on where the price trades at, when re-rated).


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## Chasero (17 October 2011)

Moit said:


> Hi all RED club members.
> 
> It seems as though today will again be a day of low volume. Its like the buyers don't want to pay to much for the stock, or are waiting for an announcement before they pounce. But in saying that the sellers aren't give RED away to cheaply either.
> 
> ...




<--- waiting for annoucements 

I only have a small parcel @ 0.165 and 0.17... sigh.


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## LostMyShirt (17 October 2011)

beatle said:


> LostHisShirt, when you say "In my opinion this means we have a large amount of holdouts who are waiting for the Announcements etc. before they unleash the dragon on the stock.", do you mean that you think there is a considerable amount of holders waiting for the chance to dump but at a higher price?
> 
> I'm hoping that holders will realise that in fact RED will not only get a re-rating based on fundamentals, but also will be a longer term hold as we begin a new phase of the company's existence and the realisation that in due course it will be trading from a base of around p/e = 3 or thereabouts (depending of course on where the price trades at, when re-rated).




That is exactly what I mean, Beatle. I could be right, I could be wrong, but the price action doesn't indicate I am incorrect. The only reason we have a lot of selling into bids is because an exponential amount was purchased during the recent tanking of the ASX. Purchasing at 0.165 - 0.18cps and dumping into .205 - .21cps is decent profit for traders.

The smart money is holding fast until such time as they can get a decent price - I am one of them. I am too scared to purchase at this price at this time not that I am intending on making a purchase anyway.

I should mention that by scale RED5 Limited is outperforming the XAO.

And why do you keep calling me "Losthisshirt" rofl hahahaha!


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## Dougs Antiques (17 October 2011)

Hi guys this is my point of veiw ATM (a neutral point of veiw, if it goes up I win and if it goes down I top up).
This morning after open (within 30 mins) I had a good hard look at the trading, at this point it was 1 tick up trading at 21.5 there was 1,119000 units for sale at 21.5 and 360000 units on ask at 21.0.
As we all know short supply and high demand causes price to jump up, ATM im not seeing this with plenty of supply but no one to buy at that price.
For this reason I think that if there isnt any announcements we will see a drop of 3 to 5 ticks from 21.0 to (19.0 or 19.5) this week at some point an I will be ready to top up when it does.
This is just my opinion and I could be wrong but im fairly confident in my actions.

DYOR


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## LostMyShirt (17 October 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> Hi guys this is my point of veiw ATM (a neutral point of veiw, if it goes up I win and if it goes down I top up).
> This morning after open (within 30 mins) I had a good hard look at the trading, at this point it was 1 tick up trading at 21.5 there was 1,119000 units for sale at 21.5 and 360000 units on ask at 21.0.
> As we all know short supply and high demand causes price to jump up, ATM im not seeing this with plenty of supply but no one to buy at that price.
> For this reason I think that if there isnt any announcements we will see a drop of 3 to 5 ticks from 21.0 to (19.0 or 19.5) this week at some point an I will be ready to top up when it does.
> ...




I would be following that as well. A top up at .195 is not a bad idea.

Bulls and bears are fairly equal in this. Like I said earlier we would be needing some help to prop up past that 21 cent mark. .19-.195cps is not a long shot at all - in fact, it is around the corner. We did have some fair buying today though - whatever the sellers threw out the buyers bought on market were just short of a 50/50.


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## jancha (17 October 2011)

My opinion on where RED is heading depends greatly on the POG.
 If it drops $50 over night look for 1-2c drop but if gold maintains it's current trend (which i think it will) i cant see RED going back to 19c. REDs Gold pour is getting too close for any major pull backs.


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## LostMyShirt (17 October 2011)

jancha said:


> My opinion on where RED is heading depends greatly on the POG.
> If it drops $50 over night look for 1-2c drop but if gold maintains it's current trend (which i think it will) i cant see RED going back to 19c. REDs Gold pour is getting too close for any major pull backs.




You do make a point regarding the external factors of RED stock influences, Jancha.

I should mention my thought do usualy come purely from Technicals and nothing more. I am personally confident on RED's profitability and the fundamentals speak for themselves.


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## Starcraftmazter (18 October 2011)

Just to clarify, is the pour date meant to be start of November or end?


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## LostMyShirt (18 October 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Just to clarify, is the pour date meant to be start of November or end?




I thought I had read somewhere it was early Nov' or something along those lines.


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## Starcraftmazter (18 October 2011)

Stressful times the next one month then. 

There was significant resistance today at the $0.210-0.215 mark.

XAO is again very very close to the critical 4400 point. As I write this, DJIA has just opened down 0.5%.

On the other hand, gold has had a short rally touching almost $1700 just a few hours back, however it is now again back to $1680s (which is still quite high given recent prices).

It is worth considering that RED can suffer a minor pullback like the others have mentioned, before shooting back up around the start of November based on expectations. I think it is a possibility.

As I've said previously, it's important to keep in mind the money sitting at the sidelines, the question is whether it will cause RED to shoot back up quickly without taking much of a dive or merely stagnate it's falls. It's no good if selling pressure is taken out by those wanting to top up their long positions and we are left with 18-19c without significant excess buyer support.


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## Dougs Antiques (18 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I thought I had read somewhere it was early Nov' or something along those lines.




I believe that the first gold pour is late November to Early December (correct me if im wrong Beatle but im 99% sure im right) so say about 6 to 7 weeks)

POG has had 2 attemts in the last week at $1700 and dropped back to $1670ish hopefully it will hold up and go on wthi it on the 3rd attempt.

I know that all that hold RED are very optimistic (and they have good reason to be with the fundementals) but I think that there is plenty of time...about 3 weeks before this one takes off.
I think next month will see a couple of good announcements but for now there isnt much to prop up the price a great deal.

DYOR


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## investorpaul (18 October 2011)

Hi Guys,

I just thought I would add my  from what I have seen from resource companies moving to producer status.

I agree that you should see an increase once productions starts, however you the real re-rating should come after 1 or 2 quarters of results. This will help prove that the company can meet its production targets, costs of operating, etc. Once the market is confident management can run the mine to the predicted level of profitability then the SP will rise to be more in line with broker valuation.


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## beatle (18 October 2011)

Some very interesting comments have been made the last day, very enlightening for a non-trader like me to hear the general thoughts of those that try to predict each move in RED's share price. And I can't fault the reasoning, but I wouldn't dare trade in it iike that as I would end up losing my shares too easily and then get caught chasing it back up! I have been in RED far too long to risk it that way, but I can understand those that have just joined in don't have the same long term view of things.

(By the way LostYourShirt, I prefer to make sure its clear that its not MY shirt that has been lost, lol).

DougsAntiques, from my reading of the last announcement and my last trip to site, its likely the first first gold pour is more likely at the end of November. 

As you can expect, starting up a large new gold processing facility, whilst using relatively simple and tried and proven technology, still takes time to commence and finally arrive at required operating levels. There is a commissioning period which takes a few weeks, firstly as a dry testing with the various circuits being tested to ensure each appear to be working correctly, then progressively moving into a wet commissioning where all the small issues relating to various factors such as leaks, grind, etc and how the circuits link to each other. There are ALWAYS things to sort out, its part of a normal commissioning process, and in addition the operators need to become familiar with the running of the plant and the various parameters that have to be considered to ensure appropriate recovery levels based on grind size, leach kinetics, etc etc. 

I would imagine when RED commence the wet commissioning they will put out an announcement and its likely that we won't get a first gold pour for a few weeks after that time. In addition I presume we will get an announcement regarding a revision to the mining/production schedule, and that should also provide us all with the possible increase in total gold production over the following 10 or so years of reserve life. Hopefully total recoverable ounces will increase closer to 1 million ounces!

And yes I agree with you InvestorPaul, that it will take a couple of quarters to get closer to significant premium that I expect, beyond the overall fundamental cash flow valuation. But don't be confused, we are still to get a very significant re-rating IMO towards that NPV valuation as we move into production. That is more likely achieved once the doubters realise there really is gold at Siana, and RED is capable of producing large quantities of it cheaply!


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## LostMyShirt (18 October 2011)

Check out the price action. It is trading sideways, and on the bids we got over 1m units supporting the 20cps mark. The price is not going to shoot up in a straight line - we have already seen the downfalls of such a move.

Gold is trading within a steady range with a few false breakouts along the way - it should remain steady providing there is no crash such as that experienced in 08. Also, I should mention with respect to the XAO; RED is outperforming it, and the XAO itself is showing 4400 resistance. It would be no suprise if we drop from that point, as we are today, but there is nothing on the horizon at this time to indicate a drop below bottom and continuation of the downtrend.

Paul is 100% is suggesting that the stock should be fundamentally re-rated _after_ two quarters have ended and results are tallied.

Beatle - I agree with you in not wanting to trade the stock. I am not saying one cannot do so, as it has already been done by the likes of Star, but I've been slightly uneasy about selling off with the intent of re-purchasing. Thankfully we did have a pullback to sub 20's, and I Was able to make a simple buy/sell.

I do apologize about the wrong time frame for the Gold pour - sorry about that.


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## mr. jeff (18 October 2011)

No-one should really take any notice of bid and offer volumes except where there are lots of little bids which can tell you something in itself but only when traded.
But most know what iceberging is (google it), don't read anything into the volume for sale etc. unless you are a market maker, and no offense but you wouldn't spend your days here if that were the case!


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## LostMyShirt (18 October 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> No-one should really take any notice of bid and offer volumes except where there are lots of little bids which can tell you something in itself but only when traded.
> But most know what iceberging is (google it), don't read anything into the volume for sale etc. unless you are a market maker, and no offense but you wouldn't spend your days here if that were the case!




Yes, good point. I retract what I said about the volume support - at this time it has shifted. Those who with to purchase at 19 cent rage will have that oppertunity at the end of the week in my opinion.


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## Starcraftmazter (18 October 2011)

One thing I noticed about volume when i was looking over the last 3m chart today, is that in the last few weeks volume has been significantly below the normal of the last few months.

I also see the ratio of buyers to sellers slowly tightening towards 1.


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## beatle (19 October 2011)

Starcraftmazter, I had a look at charts for RED over the past year, 6 months and 3 months, and really can't see any discernible change in the volumes traded that you are referring to. Short of me going to the trouble of actually adding up the individual daily trading volumes over the past 6 months to see any relative difference, can you quantify the variation that you observe in any way? I would say that the past week or thereabouts there has been a slight drop in volume but nothing that could point to any noticeable trend in trading activity.

I do agree with MrJeff, that with Bot trading being rife in RED, as I'm sure all will agree is happening, its very hard (for me impossible) to now which way the days trading will pan out, thats why I suggest that if you are happy with holding RED for the medium to long term, you run a danger of trading out of it with the games these Bots play. In google it refers to Bot trading as "assisting in minimising the impact of the trading". My variation of that definition is "manipulating the trading to suck the amateurs in"!

One further point with regard to fundamental valuation with regard to RED. I can't emphasise too much the fact that RED is not being discounted like the other gold players when the market comes off. Even though I don't deny that there are many bargains out there at the moment after the recent rout which affected all companies' prices, since RED continues to be valued as an explorer, and is due to become a significant gold producer, then the discount is deeper than that incurred by other gold producers, who generally are trading at a premium to the NPV notwithstanding them having been discounted in the past month and a half. RED needs to catch up to those producers, and will do so once it moves into production, then we can complain only that it is being discounted similar to other gold producers, at the moment its being discounted because its not classified as a gold producer.

And the real reason for RED always having been discounted, for those that haven't followed it so much in the past, is that it has had a few false goes at producing at Siana. It was expected to go into development when if first got a bank loan from Societe Generale, back in 2007, but that ended with a puff when the bank had a condition precedent that RED needed to increase the reserve life considerably, which entailed a huge drilling program. All that work has now been done, and all the hard yards in completing environmental plans and audits have been completed, the plant is almost complete now, the pit is effectively dewatered, the ore reserves have been increased considerably, close to 1 million ounces. Its about time to start believing in RED, holding tight with your shares and making a motsa.... Thats' my view anyway!


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## mr. jeff (19 October 2011)

Have noticed volume coming back a bit.





If I had to have a poke at it, I would say that larger players hoping that their lack of buying may spur short term weakness to enable further accumulation. This would also explain the very thin little parcels that are running through at the moment. 
Have a look a few posts ago to see if this is working. 

Some here have sold much of their holdings this week and last, why ? scared price going to fall. Has it gone anywhere ? Someone is  buying them.

A bit more time at around the early 20's and that could provide the start of a move. Still looking to MC=330M + cash.


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## beatle (19 October 2011)

Today is a SLOW day for RED. Seems that buyers are  testing holders out to see if they can get any more at the current level of around 20.5 cents. I wouldn't mind betting that this is a precursor to another test of the 24 cents level in the coming week or so! 

When you think about it, we only have less than 2 weeks to go to the end of this month (=> the quarterly report is due at the end of October at the latest), and thus the outstanding information that we are waiting for, viz. reserve/production schedule update, status of commissioning, should soon be with us. 

Then its surely countdown to the first gold pour...


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## LostMyShirt (19 October 2011)

I couldn't help myself today - I took a small parcel at 0.205cps. Sure I averaged down, but my patience is the size of a toothpick....


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## Dougs Antiques (19 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I couldn't help myself today - I took a small parcel at 0.205cps. Sure I averaged down, but my patience is the size of a toothpick....




LOLZ patience comes with age.
Im just a dinosaur with a tonne of patience.
I might get filled tomorrow at 19.5 and I may not, either way im happy.
This is the price action today which I was talking about at the begining of the week (slowly breaking down the defence to get in a quick hit before it gathers momentum).
My 
DYOR


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## LostMyShirt (19 October 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> LOLZ patience comes with age.
> Im just a dinosaur with a tonne of patience.
> I might get filled tomorrow at 19.5 and I may not, either way im happy.
> This is the price action today which I was talking about at the begining of the week (slowly breaking down the defence to get in a quick hit before it gathers momentum).
> ...




I hear ya....

If you look at the daily dancle, 20 cents has been very decent support in a very tight range. There is no breaking down of the SP from what I can see, we rose to a range and have stuck with it for the last 4 or 5 sessions. 

Having said that I still do hope you get your order filled as I really don't think this range will last forever nor the 0.195cps either.


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## Dougs Antiques (19 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I hear ya....
> 
> If you look at the daily dancle, 20 cents has been very decent support in a very tight range. There is no breaking down of the SP from what I can see, we rose to a range and have stuck with it for the last 4 or 5 sessions.
> 
> Having said that I still do hope you get your order filled as I really don't think this range will last forever nor the 0.195cps either.



"Lost his Shirt" oops I mean LostMyShirt  I will hold off untill Friday 1PM and then I will consider a top up at 20.5 (the same as my exit ...brokerage fees only as a loss).
I see that there is good support at 20.0 to 21.0 but this is out of our hands and in the big boys hands and if they wish to sell it down at a sacrafice of 500,000 shares to take 1M shares at a lower price it will happen.
Just see what happens but im confident of being filled on Friday at 19.5 
Thats my call in a nutshell, but im often wrong


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## Starcraftmazter (19 October 2011)

beatle said:


> Starcraftmazter, I had a look at charts for RED over the past year, 6 months and 3 months, and really can't see any discernible change in the volumes traded that you are referring to. Short of me going to the trouble of actually adding up the individual daily trading volumes over the past 6 months to see any relative difference, can you quantify the variation that you observe in any way? I would say that the past week or thereabouts there has been a slight drop in volume but nothing that could point to any noticeable trend in trading activity.




3 Month
1 Month

Not sure if I'm seeing things, but volume to me looks lower in the recent few weeks as I said - especially in the last week or so.



In regards to buying lower, I am somewhat hoping this weekend's EU summit is somewhat of a disappointment, which ends up lowering RED's sp a bit. We'll see.


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## LostMyShirt (19 October 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> "Lost his Shirt" oops I mean LostMyShirt  I will hold off untill Friday 1PM and then I will consider a top up at 20.5 (the same as my exit ...brokerage fees only as a loss).
> I see that there is good support at 20.0 to 21.0 but this is out of our hands and in the big boys hands and if they wish to sell it down at a sacrafice of 500,000 shares to take 1M shares at a lower price it will happen.
> Just see what happens but im confident of being filled on Friday at 19.5
> Thats my call in a nutshell, but im often wrong




Haha Doug that gave me a chuckle 

Well, Like I said; I hope you get your order filled in with no problems, and glad you are waiting in line as you are not the only one who wants a parcel at 0.195cps by the looks of things.

Star; I hope the dissapointment that you are hoping for is not too dire, it may very well be priced into the SP once the entire ASX takes a tank :/ I also am worried about the effect to Metals as well...


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## beatle (20 October 2011)

Thanks Starcraftmazter for going to the trouble. I did mention that I could see a drop in volume the past week but other than that I'm not sure it has fallen off much if at all. But clearly the trading volume is being stalled now with an expectation that RED share price is going to move, seems like the trader-types are expecting to come off, us longer term investors are expecting it to go up, lol. Each to his own. But whatever, I can't see much volume being traded at 19.5 if it gets down to that level, or even at 20.0 cents where its hardly trading at the moment. Maybe an external variable, such as a big drop in gold price or the market tanking could shake a few loose.

I remain my confidence, not sure if its now numbness that I hardly worry about a micro-move down, as its going to surely be momentary if what I expect is going to happen does happen as a result of RED starting to produce gold at low cost.


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## LostMyShirt (20 October 2011)

Doug's about to get his order filled


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## Dougs Antiques (20 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Doug's about to get his order filled




The sellers arnt too keen selling into 19.5 
Just see how the day pans out
Its easy to get a fill at 20.0 but I will stick it out for the .05 bonus 
DYOR


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## LostMyShirt (20 October 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> The sellers arnt too keen selling into 19.5
> Just see how the day pans out
> Its easy to get a fill at 20.0 but I will stick it out for the .05 bonus
> DYOR




Lol no they arn't keen at all - it's only been a single trade at 0.195cps. Give it time though the algo's will hit the on-market sell...

What level is your order at by the way? It's not important, just keen to watch the order get filled.


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## Dougs Antiques (20 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Lol no they arn't keen at all - it's only been a single trade at 0.195cps. Give it time though the algo's will hit the on-market sell...
> 
> What level is your order at by the way? It's not important, just keen to watch the order get filled.




Its in a PM to you


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## LostMyShirt (20 October 2011)

Pre-NR?

Oh-O!

This better be good news lest I break my computer.... LOL! Imagine it's a take-over bid?!? Shares to be bought on market for $1? Hahaha Oh man, a man can dream though - a man can dream 

Read the PM, Doug. Watching with keen interest.


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## beatle (20 October 2011)

Looks like you guys are correct, I eat my words, lol. And LostHisShirt, I agree that the algorithm trading will probably chew slowly into the 19.5 cents, so Doug might get his fill if he's at the front of the queue. And if there is anyone out there panicking due to liquidity issues there might be a bigger chunk be dumped. Those Algorithm chews yesterday did their job - just think about it, until about 30 minutes of trading yesterday all trades had been 20.5 cents, and only the last few very small trades kept it at 20 cents at end of day, with VWAP yesterday of 20.467! And yet it was capable of bringing the trading down today to 20 cents with 650,000 odd shares traded at the outset this morning. Crazy! 

Regardless, the slight drop in price is not a major catastrophe when you look the bigger picture. But it sure frustrates the hell out of me, again...


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## LostMyShirt (20 October 2011)

"Proposal for Share Consolidation"

Sorry I am unaware of what kind of impact this would have on the price - can someone enlighten me to whether or not this is a good thing

Oh God, everyone's selling out.... What a poor time to announce such a plan! Jesus H Christ!


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## Dougs Antiques (20 October 2011)

Thats one way to get the volume up


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## McLovin (20 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> "Proposal for Share Consolidation"
> 
> Sorry I am unaware of what kind of impact this would have on the price - can someone enlighten me to whether or not this is a good thing
> 
> Oh God, everyone's selling out.... What a poor time to announce such a plan! Jesus H Christ!




It shouldn't have any effect on price. It's just the reverse of a share split.


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## jah008 (20 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> "Proposal for Share Consolidation"
> 
> Sorry I am unaware of what kind of impact this would have on the price - can someone enlighten me to whether or not this is a good thing
> 
> Oh God, everyone's selling out.... What a poor time to announce such a plan! Jesus H Christ!




I was unaware of what share consolidation was. found this.
http://www.martinlee.sg/share-consolidation/


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## LostMyShirt (20 October 2011)

Whatever it is (I know now what it is), the shareholders are not happy, mass selling!


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## beatle (20 October 2011)

This announcement of a share consolidation obviously caught me by absolute surprise, as it did the market for RED shares, and maybe not surprising the immediate market reaction was negative, due to a comparison with other consolidations which have tended to impact negatively on share price. BUT there is a danger in assuming that such a consolidation will be negative from a medium term perspective. I suggest you all think very clearly before selling RED shares as a response to this announcement!!!

For background, whilst a share consolidation should not have a negative impact theoretically, as the market cap remains the same and thus in a case where its a 1 for 10 consolidation effectively you should get a 10X uplift in the consolidated share price. However, whilst the market looks upon them negatively, its usually due to the fact that the majority of companies that take on consolidation of share capital are forced to do so to pursue capital raising initiatives subsequent to the consolidation, usually due to lack of capacity to raise shares on a pre-consolidated basis. Usually this is because the company's assets are not capable of performing for whatever reason.

The case for RED is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. RED does not need to raise funds, it will have around A$17 million cash in its treasury after final development costs, within the next month, and its going into a production phase that is likely to be VERY cash flow positive. Therefore the stigma of a consolidation that is reflective of a struggling company DOES NOT APPLY! With RED its all about trying to remove the penny dreadful image it will have at a time when it is producing considerable cash, and has a considerable number of main stream insto's on board and likely to come on board in the short term. I quote the announcement today: "Directors have noted the benefits of removing an adverse perception in international markets from having a cumbersome capital structure and resultant lower share price and the potential for increased North
American interest from funds who are currently precluded due to share price
threshold constraints".

Thus a consolidation of RED shares is not a big issue from a value point of view.

IN FACT I consider RED is a fantastic bargain at the moment trading at around 18.5 cents, probably the last chance to get the cheap shares before some very significant, and positive, new is due to be announced. Maybe those announcements are due out in the next couple of days!


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## Buckfont (20 October 2011)

Hasn`t fazed me at all. In fact bought another parcel at 0.19c. But was surprised to see it drop another cent. Hang in there everybody


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## mr. jeff (20 October 2011)

Beatle I am with you there, no problems for RED at all. Gold has moved down a little, not sure what the dollar is doing right now, but nothing great has changed except for market sentiment in general. This weakenss could continue if the XAO cannot break out above the current trading range 4300's, which is up in the air and helps to explain why there are many small-medium stocks just not seeing the trading volumes that are usual.

Back to RED and I would say to everyone here that has been planning to buy on the lows, put your money where your mouth is! 

Further, don't discount the idea that the larger traders are taking advantage of this weakness to sell the price down. Entirely possible and probable, of course time will tell, as at this stage it is quite natural to feel that the price may never recover even 21c and we are possibly facing losses for a long time. HA!

I have topped up and am pleasantly surprised with this development, assuming we don't see 16c of course over the next few days in which case I may have got a bit too excited early on. There is news flow to come, let the gold roll in.

P.S.           "it never troubles the wolf how many the sheep may be.."


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## MACCA350 (20 October 2011)

beatle said:


> "Directors have noted the benefits of removing an adverse perception in international markets from having a cumbersome capital structure and resultant lower share price and the *potential for increased North American interest from funds who are currently precluded due to share price threshold constraints*".



That bold section seems to be the only reason this consolidation is taking place, should be an indication of things to come

Cheers


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## LostMyShirt (20 October 2011)

You guys are making solid points and I would agree with most of them however the looming danger is the drop in the SP which in time should have attracted more buyers, not forcing people to sell.

I have no idea why the mass selling is taking place for a share that is not percieved to be dereasing in intrinsic value however there must be a reason and the reason may or may not be a good one.


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## beatle (20 October 2011)

LostHisShirt, you refer to a reason for the decision for the selling to continue and I have no doubts whatsoever that they are simply selling knowing that for pennydreadfuls share consolidation usually results in capital raisings etc. RED is completely different in its reasons. AND what you must be aware of with RED directors, they have a duty to make the market fully aware of anything that is happening, on a continuous disclosure basis, and what they have informed the market is that gold production is imminent "impending status as a gold producer", its in the announcement today accompanying the consolidation news. 

IF the consolidation is not a good thing then remember its up for approval at the AGM by shareholders. AND since the majority of shareholders are insto's that clearly don't want to lose a dollar on their investments I am certain that it will be approved if they see it as a good thing.

One other thing, I firmly believe its positive and since the announcement have put in an order to Buy shares which has been filled. So I have put my money where my mouth is!


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## LostMyShirt (20 October 2011)

I was hoping for a T/O bid 

Would't it be nice if they bought each share for a buck? I'd go to Mindanao and kiss the plant equipment. hahahaha


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## beatle (20 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I was hoping for a T/O bid
> 
> Would't it be nice if they bought each share for a buck? I'd go to Mindanao and kiss the plant equipment. hahahaha




As long as it was a buck PRE-consolidation, lol!

I do realise though that for traders its not so good because most don't want to hang around while the consolidation takes time.

By the way I wouldn't mind betting we get an announcement tomorrow announcing the AGM and the Resolution accompanying that re the Consolidation. What's so relevant about that - well I think its because they want to get this admin paperwork out of the way before they start putting out more relevant (and positive statements) in the coming week, remembering we are due to get the quarterly within the next week (I can't see them waiting til Monday 31 October) and they will want to put out other announcements such as the new ore reserve and production schedule, and hopefully the commencement of wet commissioning separate to the quarterly.


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## vkdirector (20 October 2011)

Well I also put my money where my mouth is and almost doubled my holding this afternoon at .185 which I consider to be at a very cheap price compared to what could be to come out with the quarterly announcement due out soon as well as there first gold poor within a month.

I am not as bullish on this stock as a lot of other people clearly are but I do see a massive potential and do not  believe the sp will stay sub .20 for much longer.


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## LostMyShirt (20 October 2011)

Well in either case I am holding and waiting to average down in the stock. I did say I had a position being held and was not mking any intention on another purchase but a this price who could blame me? I did also make a purchase yesterday at 0.205cps thinking that the price would not breakout of support, but the ann was unforseen - real kick in the teeth; still can make some good from it though since most of us here are long termers and not traders (for this stock anyway).

Looking forward to new Ann's and Pour in Nov'.

Also, beatle - My T/O bid daydream was at the current level of issued shares, so if it were post-consolidation then a T/O at $10 would be great!!! Hahaha


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## vkdirector (20 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> but the ann was unforseen - real kick in the teeth




TBH I am unclear on why the announcement today has had such a mass selling for shareholders, I am all for RED's share consolidation as the company has gone up a level to now being a gold producer, not just a penny exploration stock


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## Dougs Antiques (20 October 2011)

RED will recover quickly I feel (this wasnt a bad announcement just misunderstood with what could be happening behind the scenes)
VK Director , do you really have a VK Director? I do


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## vkdirector (20 October 2011)

I did for about 7 years but sold it a few years ago  man i miss that car


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## Chasero (20 October 2011)

Bought in today @ 0.185. Now with parcels 0.165 0.17 0.185. They better have a gold pour early November!!

Sold out of GNS at a healthy profit and unloaded all into RED


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## Buckfont (20 October 2011)

I have a VK Director. She says `Vacate the Kitchen`. Lol


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## LostMyShirt (20 October 2011)

Hey I have no idea why it caused a sell down either - I can't put my finger on it for the following reasons;

- The shares are worth the exact same amount before and after consolidation respective to the trades.

- The company has not announced anything dire - in fact it is trying to gain international interest.

- Comissioning was unmentioned and can be safely assumed that timeframes are progressing on target and there will be no hinderence to the companies prospects and goals.

No change in fundamentals, no change in SP worth, no dire news. Perhaps the others were right in saying that the Ann was just bad news for the short termers. Envy to the shorters! hehehehe


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## Dougs Antiques (20 October 2011)

Ive spent the last hour going over todays action and without any real reason for todays drop (panic) I can only assume it was forced by bigger and better than me.
In saying this there was a high percentage of companies in my wachlist that had a bad day as well.
I think that tomorrow will see a reversal back to 20.0 or there abouts
My
Enjoy the evening (im still at work for 4 hrs yet...the joys of self employment Hahahaha)
DYOR


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## LostMyShirt (20 October 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> Ive spent the last hour going over todays action and without any real reason for todays drop (panic) I can only assume it was forced by bigger and better than me.
> In saying this there was a high percentage of companies in my wachlist that had a bad day as well.
> I think that tomorrow will see a reversal back to 20.0 or there abouts
> My
> ...




Doug; The reason (I assume) for the all round bad day on the rest of your stocks was mainly to do wiht the XAO feeling the heat. RED felt it to, but only enough to burn a half cent from its price. In actual fact the cause of this rather large drop which outdone the ATR was post Ann.

A reversal to 20cps would be welcome as I can see many traders took a piece at todays bargain basement price.

Nothing like self employment mate - all the best.


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## investorpaul (20 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Hey I have no idea why it caused a sell down either - I can't put my finger on it for the following reasons;
> 
> - The shares are worth the exact same amount before and after consolidation respective to the trades.
> 
> ...




Lots of traders/investors dont like consolidation because it will wont be as "appealing" to short term traders if and when a big announcement comes out.

I.e. a lot of traders focus on stocks under $1 because they tend to be more volatile.


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## Dougs Antiques (20 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Doug; The reason (I assume) for the all round bad day on the rest of your stocks was mainly to do wiht the XAO feeling the heat. RED felt it to, but only enough to burn a half cent from its price. In actual fact the cause of this rather large drop which outdone the ATR was post Ann.
> 
> A reversal to 20cps would be welcome as I can see many traders took a piece at todays bargain basement price.
> 
> Nothing like self employment mate - all the best.



Before the announcement RED was trading at 19.5 with only 10000 units sold at that price the XAO may have possibly seen anothe .05 come off.
So looking at it in this light the announcement saw an additional .05 to 1.0 which ended up being the trading range.
Anyhow tomorrow is another day in the life of a trader and im confident of a green day.
Just see what happens over the weekend with the EU Summit for Monday.


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## fwpike (20 October 2011)

IMHO "consolidation" is nothing but expensive buggering about. 
Lots of fees for lots of mates. 
Nothing like a strong dividend to buck up the share price. 
I will be voting "no"


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## theartglasshouse (20 October 2011)

Wouldn't be concerned. You should have waited and topped up at these prices lostmyshirt. 

All my gold stocks down today. Think this one will fluctuate between the 18's for 21's for a while till the gold starts pouring. Give or take a few $0.05's.

I would prefer a VB HDT or a VN Group A SS...


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## fwpike (20 October 2011)

If all of the office wallahs and fee earning advisors who are salivating at this consolidation were sent out to dig gold then it would definitely have a positive effect on the share price. I have no time for this smoke and mirrors crap. Vote "No"


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## Dougs Antiques (20 October 2011)

fwpike said:


> If all of the office wallahs and fee earning advisors who are salivating at this consolidatoin were sent out to dig gold then it would defintely have a positive effect on the share price. I have no time for this smoke and mirrors crap. Vote "No"



After todays debarkle I will be voting a big fat "NO"


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## mardo (20 October 2011)

beatle said:


> As long as it was a buck PRE-consolidation, lol!
> 
> I do realise though that for traders its not so good because most don't want to hang around while the consolidation takes time.
> 
> By the way I wouldn't mind betting we get an announcement tomorrow announcing the AGM and the Resolution accompanying that re the Consolidation. What's so relevant about that - well I think its because they want to get this admin paperwork out of the way before they start putting out more relevant (and positive statements) in the coming week, remembering we are due to get the quarterly within the next week (I can't see them waiting til Monday 31 October) and they will want to put out other announcements such as the new ore reserve and production schedule, and hopefully the commencement of wet commissioning separate to the quarterly.




Hey Beatle ! You must have known something with the annual report out this arvo.
On a quick scan through we get a royalty payment from (I think Galaxy lithium mine  near Ravensthorpe) about $ 460,000  do you know anything about this and if it is an ongoing royalty payment. I cant find anything about it on any of their reports. I'm rather interested to find out .Thanks anyway.


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## fwpike (20 October 2011)

I tried unsuccessfully to stop the second tranche of shares being issued at 17c. (Share price was 22c immediately prior). Its my call that these holders, having seen the shares as low as 11.5 c since, are jumpy at this "consolidation" cleverness and are taking a 10% profit.
Vote "No"


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## LostMyShirt (20 October 2011)

theartglasshouse said:


> Wouldn't be concerned. You should have waited and topped up at these prices lostmyshirt.
> 
> All my gold stocks down today. Think this one will fluctuate between the 18's for 21's for a while till the gold starts pouring. Give or take a few $0.05's.
> 
> I would prefer a VB HDT or a VN Group A SS...





True.

XAO took a little bit of a hit today - nothing out of the ordinary. I will be topping up though - Business has been going well lately.


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## Chasero (20 October 2011)

Why are we voting no again?

Does it make any difference?

I thought today's drop was because gold fell heavily today. All gold equities were hit quite hard today.


"Only weeks away form turning to gold producer"! Can't wait


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## vkdirector (20 October 2011)

mardo said:


> On a quick scan through we get a royalty payment from (I think Galaxy lithium mine near Ravensthorpe) about $ 460,000  do you know anything about this and if it is an ongoing royalty payment. I cant find anything about it on any of their reports. I'm rather interested to find out .Thanks anyway.




Not that I am a expert for RED5 but did see a little about this in a previous quarterly review

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&r...sg=AFQjCNE420dJPW5CBER8WAS1VqTFobh2VA&cad=rja
Quarterly Review 3 months ended 30th June 2011
Finance
• Cash position (no debt) $52.5 million (unaudited) at period close
with a further $34.4 million allocated to completing the mine build
• *Royalty (Mt Cattlin tantalum ore) revenue of $265,000 received
from Galaxy Resources Limited*

Don't know any more info than that sorry


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## vkdirector (21 October 2011)

I would like to hear from you guys that are posting no, or what smoke and mirror stuff that is going on.

If you own 25,000 @ 20 cents  or  2,500 @ $2  surely this still = $5000

I would have thought that a share consolidation would be a good thing as any time that the share price moves that you would not lose or gain 2.50% for every movement in share price.


25,000 @ 20 cents the share price drops to 19.5(min drop)cents you are down 2.50%
2500 @ $2 share price moves down to $1.99(min drop) then you are down .50%

Any thoughts????


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## Starcraftmazter (21 October 2011)

vkdirector said:


> I would have thought that a share consolidation would be a good thing as any time that the share price moves that you would not lose or gain 2.50% for every movement in share price.
> 
> 
> 25,000 @ 20 cents the share price drops to 19.5(min drop)cents you are down 2.50%
> ...




I am not 100% sure what you are trying to say, however if it is that *all else being equal*, having less shares means it doesn't drop by the same % as it would otherwise in an identical scenario, then it is generally false.


Right then.


My personal prediction was that the sp would drop to around 0.190 around the end of this week / start of next. Today's sp bottom at 0.180 was very surprising - and on significantly higher volume than for the last week or two as well.

I did not have to look long to find out why however, gold took a very significant plunge, to almost $1600. At the moment, gold is within an inch of the bottom of it's uptrend. If it goes below $1600, this will be a very bearish signal for gold (and hence gold miners). This is the main reason for the sell off in my view (I do not think it has anything to do with the share split).

The window of buyers to sellers narrowed and inverted as I thought it would as well today, before returning to positive (ie. more buyers than sellers) - though I'm not jumping back in just yet.


Like I said previously, I will still elect to wait until the start of next week to see what EU will do before buying back in, as I feel it is too much of a gamble to be long over the weekend.

The weakness in gold in my view again relates to the EU (disagreement and lack of consensus on what to do this very weekend), however this level of analysis is somewhat beyond me, so it's just an opinion.


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## mr. jeff (21 October 2011)

I hear you on the gold price, what confuses me is that generally the gold market would be rallying hard at the moment due to the currency uncertainty. 
Not that there is much point in trying to understand these things, but there you go.
Lets see what the next few weeks hold for RED.


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## Starcraftmazter (21 October 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> I hear you on the gold price, what confuses me is that generally the gold market would be rallying hard at the moment due to the currency uncertainty.
> Not that there is much point in trying to understand these things, but there you go.
> Lets see what the next few weeks hold for RED.




As far as I understand it, the perception is that any trouble in EU causes a flight of money from the euro to the US, rallying US against everything else. So bad EU news = gold down, good (short term) EU news = gold up.


I wanted to ask about this phenomena I've just noticed:








Now I haven't been doing this for even half a year, so can someone explain what the heck's going on? I can imagine wanting to split up really big trades, but this?

Is someone trying to make the SP constantly appear at 0.185 in case anyone buys at 0.190? Even though nobody is buying up to that anyway? I just don't get it.


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## beatle (21 October 2011)

Hi All RED followers, some interesting posts, some controversial, lol.

Mardo, I was surprised they put the AGM and annual report out on the same day, as I would have thought it deserved its own day, and today was actually the obvious day for me to expect it, so I was wrong too - but now that the paperwork for the admin is out of the way then we have a week available next week when I believe we may get some more positive announcements IMO.

As for Mt Cattlin, this is where my alzheimers steps in, gee I'm getting old and honestly can't recall it, but I do recall that Greenstone had nickel and other tenements down Ravensthorpe way (they tried to float them off through a group of guys who did nothing and GNR did a lousy deal with them at the time I recall). It was a time of divestment by the company when the board had just changed from the old Stan Mac controlled company to when Opus was acquired (for Indee) and just prior Siana had been brought into GNR. When GE and LG got on board they wanted to just pursue Siana and remove the other projects. Obviously Mt Cattlin was part of it, but I simply can't recall now.

As for Starcraftmazter, seems to me you have got a very sound strategy if you are trading, that there is no point to get on board with the unknowns of the G20 meeting and a declining gold price still to be played out. I am in a very different position, I have got a stack of shares (and still buying occasionally), I am in it for the longer term benefits of it being a long term low cost gold producer and I'm waiting for the production phase to provide a premium to NPV and not a discount to it. And as I have repeated so many times, even if the gold price moves down to US1,000 you will get a higher RED share price once its producing at the rate of 100,000 ounces per year and above (current mine plan which is due to be revised, suggests 130,000 ounces of gold in year 3).

Pwpike, you have posted only at times to have "a go" at management, and I don't have a problem that there is someone like you out there watching the management to keep them honest! its good for corporate governance. But your comment about "If all of the office wallahs and fee earning advisors who are salivating at this consolidation were sent out to dig gold then it would definitely have a positive effect on the share price. I have no time for this smoke and mirrors crap. Vote "No" " I think you need to explain further, it seems to me you are implying that there are huge fees involved with the consolidation process. If that is what you are saying then I can confirm categorically that you are very wrong. There is very little cost associated with a consolidation of share capital. I have been involved (on the board) of a company that was in a very different position (financially and project-wise) and had to do a consolidation to keep its listing (by raising funds). That consolidation which is no different to the process of consolidation of RED share capital cost absolutely bugger all, it was handled by the part-time company secretary and took little time, but co-operation with the ASX!


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## beatle (21 October 2011)

Just a bit more re the Share Capital Consolidation, you might recall I mentioned in a post about 1 week ago that I believed that CJ and GE were traveling to London and North America for a roadshow, I would presume what was actually happening on that trip (which is continuing until early next week) was they were getting insto support and discussing this issue. That is probably also why there was reduced trading volume this past week as the insto's had to pull back from trading by being involved on these highly confidential and sensitive matter.

I have no doubt that the insto's in North America want this consolidation proceed, and surely it will benefit us all if we have constructive shareholders together agreeing that this should proceed, and with a view that it will increase shareholder value by limiting the scatter of trading that is happening out there with over a billion and a quarter shares on issue. Personally I can see the benefits of it, especially as we start moving into gold production with significant positive cash flows. 

As you can expect, I will definitely vote YES, for my own selfish reason of wanting the insto's supporting the stock, and getting more stable shareholders who hold for longer term periods who also want longer term positive price appreciation. (Don't misinterpret my view of traders, but I think that RED is a longer term Buy, not a micro-minute trade, and as I have said, I have had RED and its predecessor GNR for around 14 years!!!). I now want to shine in the glory of gold production and significant price movements upwards!


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## fwpike (21 October 2011)

Hello Beatle,
Management want to do something with which I don't agree. Not exactly the same as "having a go at them" I would have thought. I am very happy with this management when their focus is on digging gold at which they appear to be very proficient. All I ask is that they focus on digging and selling gold.  I don't believe for a moment that that share consolidations increase the SP. Earnings increase the SP and if they don't I am quite happyto receive my dividends until the SP catches up with the P/E and especially the yield as it always does.  Whatever the costs involved they come straight off the bottom line and the machinations are a distraction to management. 
Cheers


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## Chasero (21 October 2011)

For me, with the share price so low at 18.5c, 19, 19.5c etc, consolidation is a good thing.

Every move now is a 2.5% increase or decrease, which I think is quite stupid.

Consolidate so the increases and decreases are NOT 2.5% (or 5%, 7.5% etc) every day 

With shares, you should be able to buy them down to the very cent! Not .5 cent


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## beatle (21 October 2011)

Thanks for your quick reply FwPike, and of course I don't agree with your view of RED and our combined expectations of finally producing gold, actually achieving an EPS after such a long time, and in time getting shareholder value for shares held. We both want them focus on that. But I don't have any issue in them improving the appeal of the company for current and potential future share investors, remembering of course that not only does RED have a considerable overseas shareholding base already, but we are more likely to get more premium by having offshore investors - and I give as an example CGX (with its Philippine based gold production at Masbate), that over time has moved most of its shareholder base across to N America from Australia due to more interest by larger N American insto's to Philippine based gold production. 

Actually on behalf of us shareholders I consider share capital management is an important aspect, and I for one would be very happy once having oodles of cash in treasury, for RED to do a share capital buyback, and actually expected that with 10% of the 1.28 billion shares on issue. Clearly that won't proceed now due to the consolidation.

I think the real issue for some shareholders, especially day traders and short term speculators in the stock, has been the stigma of consolidations being associated with companies having financial/fund-raising problems, and this inference with RED clearly  is not the reason for RED undergoing such a process. 

Back to the gold production, you can be assured that GE is much more focussed on the site activities, he has demonstrated that over many years, so it clearly won't be affecting his future efforts to increase shareholder value.


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## LostMyShirt (21 October 2011)

Guy, I have but one simple and single question to ask and I hope smoeone here can give me a good answer (I am not able to answer this for myself).

If Red 5 Limited has cash surplus and fully funded operations, why is there need to gather noth american interest? In my view this is to secure future capital raising - but I was under the impression that Red 5 Limited did _not_ require further capital raising.

I am very unsure as to why this has been done - and if it does not go through it could be dire for the company. If they had mentioned they require capital raising this would make sense - but no mention has been made, and this has to be the strangest proposition I have heard.


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## fwpike (21 October 2011)

As I understand it LostMyShirt there are US funds  that don't allow trading in shares that trade for less than a dollar. They have their reasons I guess. Why their reasons evaporate by simply consolidating shares I don't have any idea. In any case this might be a valid consideration at the developing stage but once we have earnings, P/E and yield are what matter to most investors.


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## LostMyShirt (21 October 2011)

fwpike said:


> As I understand it LostMyShirt there are US funds  that don't allow trading in shares that trade for less than a dollar. They have their reasons I guess. Why their reasons evaporate by simply consolidating shares I don't have any idea. In any case this might be a valid consideration at the developing stage but once we have earnings, P/E and yield are what matter to most investors.




What Benifit does Red 5 Limited get from insto's buying on market shares in Red 5? Unless they are after future capital raising, the price of the share is meaningless to Red 5, is it not?


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## Des P (21 October 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> As far as I understand it, the perception is that any trouble in EU causes a flight of money from the euro to the US, rallying US against everything else. So bad EU news = gold down, good (short term) EU news = gold up.
> 
> 
> I wanted to ask about this phenomena I've just noticed:
> ...




Starcraftmazter good spot i just had a look myself i hope somebody can give an opinion on why this is being done
Cheers


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## LostMyShirt (21 October 2011)

It's an algo dumping, what looks like a large position.


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## beatle (21 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Guy, I have but one simple and single question to ask and I hope smoeone here can give me a good answer (I am not able to answer this for myself).
> 
> If Red 5 Limited has cash surplus and fully funded operations, why is there need to gather noth american interest? In my view this is to secure future capital raising - but I was under the impression that Red 5 Limited did _not_ require further capital raising.
> 
> I am very unsure as to why this has been done - and if it does not go through it could be dire for the company. If they had mentioned they require capital raising this would make sense - but no mention has been made, and this has to be the strangest proposition I have heard.




Firstly, RED does NOT need to raise any more cash for Siana. The consolidation is not being undertaken for that purpose whatsoever. Fwpike has answered that aspect re the limitations imposed by some North American funds groups investing in resource shares.

Put very simply LostHisShirt, the reason for the consolidation is to increase the appeal of RED to a wider audience, including N American funds groups, who might otherwise be restricted in their investments that might otherwise preclude RED from being considered. And why do we want RED more available to such a wider audience, to increase it share price, simple as that!

AND who knows what might happen in the future with RED. What is it going to do with all the surplus cash from Siana production? Well for instance, it might be to push harder on the exploration front, on its own leases at Siana or Mapawa, where there are possibilities of a mega project, such as LSY prospect at Mapawa which could develop into a major gold porphyry requiring mega bucks to develop. That is where having major insto's involved with RED could be significant. Other than straight exploration RED could conceivably look to acquire other assets, eg Boyongan, or similar, that again would require a large amount of capital for development as well as acquisition. Or something outside of the Philippines, who knows what else could be considered once Siana is up and running and providing considerable cash flows. 

THAT is why I want to stay in RED for the longer term!!!


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## beatle (21 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> It's an algo dumping, what looks like a large position.




By the way, what makes you think that an algo is "dumping"? I suggest it is slowly chewing, lol, and probably its more about trying to increase a holding rather than dumping!


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## LostMyShirt (21 October 2011)

beatle said:


> By the way, what makes you think that an algo is "dumping"? I suggest it is slowly chewing, lol, and probably its more about trying to increase a holding rather than dumping!




Oh well that's because the small parcels are being thrown out but _someone_ is buying them.

Look at the trade history you'll see what I mean.


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## vkdirector (21 October 2011)

As at 3:20 today there has been 384 trades 

299 out of the 384 trades have been for 550 or 600 shares at a time 
And 8 @ 4222 shares all at the same time


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## LostMyShirt (21 October 2011)

vkdirector said:


> As at 3:20 today there has been 384 trades
> 
> 299 out of the 384 trades have been for 550 or 600 shares at a time
> And 8 @ 4222 shares all at the same time




Exactly.

It could be algo it could just be parcel selling either way it was a set and timed system.

A lot was dumped and I made a buy at 0.185cps.


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## Starcraftmazter (21 October 2011)

Des P said:


> Starcraftmazter good spot i just had a look myself i hope somebody can give an opinion on why this is being done
> Cheers




I was observing RED and this was done *all day* - someone kept putting in sell orders of 550 and 600 at 18.5 every single minute of the day.



LostMyShirt said:


> It's an algo dumping, what looks like a large position.




Is it done that way to prevent volume showing on the sell orders? Would it have a significant effect on brokerage fees?



beatle said:


> By the way, what makes you think that an algo is "dumping"? I suggest it is slowly chewing, lol, and probably its more about trying to increase a holding rather than dumping!




They had to be sell orders for those amounts, as they did not show up in the buyer orders (they would have gone to the end of the list for 18.5c, but there were none there anyway).

Of course a sell is also a buy, so to clarify what I mean is that whoever caused the small trades was selling.



Anyway, I couldn't be happier I'm not holding for the weekend, as EU seems to be losing the plot. And I do of course say this with a very short-term trading perspective. Hoping to get in either next week or the one after. RED's sp could well go lower. There was apparently a broad sell off by instos after 2, and clearly someone big didn't feel confident about RED for the time being.

Gold has not gone anywhere in a hurry. There was a rumour going around that Bernanke has privately said that there will be no more monetary easing (ie. no QE3). This did not effect gold at all, so it seems interesting that it could have been somewhat priced in already (I assumed that the market was still betting on QE3 in the medium term, perhaps some time early next year). In fact as I write this, in the last few hours gold is attempting to make up the losses of the last few days, rallying $20 (1.2%) in the 2 hours. Go figure.

Are traders predicting an imminent breakout of EMU with a lot of printing to deal with debt? I doubt it, so this isn't making a lot of sense to me. Regardless of my own personal bullish views on gold, the market always has a reason for what it's doing. I will try and figure it out tomorrow.


Hate weekends, lots of rumours and speculation but no data nor trading


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## LostMyShirt (22 October 2011)

The guys on he forum once told me that certain broker platforms allow parcel trades like that where you program conditions and it lets loose on the market. When you have parcel buying it means someone is picking up large positions without trying to alert the market or exhaust his entry price.

Parcel selling on the other hand is the opposite - they do this so they can get the on market bid and unload a large position.

The thing is, the position cannot have been that large considering it was unloading 550 a minute for the entire trading session - that only equals to 198000 units - which is peanuts for a penny stock.


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## Dougs Antiques (22 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> The guys on he forum once told me that certain broker platforms allow parcel trades like that where you program conditions and it lets loose on the market. When you have parcel buying it means someone is picking up large positions without trying to alert the market or exhaust his entry price.
> 
> Parcel selling on the other hand is the opposite - they do this so they can get the on market bid and unload a large position.
> 
> The thing is, the position cannot have been that large considering it was unloading 550 a minute for the entire trading session - that only equals to 198000 units - which is peanuts for a penny stock.




Yes certain platforms allow your trades to be totaled up at the end of the day and only pay 1 brokerage fee so this allows for as many small parcels as you like at the same cost as 1 large trade.
I dont see this trade as a bad thing ,what I do see it as is a person or persons trying to keep RED trading at 18.5 for that day for a particular reason (only they know what that reason is).
They cant do it forever can they?


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## Starcraftmazter (22 October 2011)

Well see that's what I was thinking, but trading firms have up-to-date data in miliseconds, they do not need to put in a new trade every minute, they can just do it within a second of a higher (ie. 0.19) trade happening. This is just so confusing 

I'm eager to see what Monday's trading will bring for RED.


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## Des P (22 October 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> Yes certain platforms allow your trades to be totaled up at the end of the day and only pay 1 brokerage fee so this allows for as many small parcels as you like at the same cost as 1 large trade.
> I dont see this trade as a bad thing ,what I do see it as is a person or persons trying to keep RED trading at 18.5 for that day for a particular reason (only they know what that reason is).
> They cant do it forever can they?




All! i am new to this share market thing and i hold a small amount of RED shares.But this person or persons trying to keep RED trading at 18.5 for that day for a particular reason (only they know what that particular reason is) sort of worries me is there a possibility of insider trading or is this kind of trading the Norm
From what i am trying to understand it could be a benefit for long term traders but i do not Know!
Cheers
Des


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## Dougs Antiques (22 October 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Well see that's what I was thinking, but trading firms have up-to-date data in miliseconds, they do not need to put in a new trade every minute, they can just do it within a second of a higher (ie. 0.19) trade happening. This is just so confusing
> 
> I'm eager to see what Monday's trading will bring for RED.



I have that same trading platform (instant data) yes it is an advantage but its the tools that come with it that are more important IMO



Des P said:


> All! i am new to this share market thing and i hold a small amount of RED shares.But this person or persons trying to keep RED trading at 18.5 for that day for a particular reason (only they know what that particular reason is) sort of worries me is there a possibility of insider trading or is this kind of trading the Norm
> From what i am trying to understand it could be a benefit for long term traders but i do not Know!
> Cheers
> Des




Des traders can easilly get caught up watching every movement, this sort of trading isnt normal but it does happen.
The important facts to remember are that RED has the fundamentals and has a lot of good news coming in the very near future, before its commisioning and first gold pour.
Longer term holders may remember a while back when there was a blocking order of 3 mil and another 2 mil right behind it from memory...anyhow they for some reason were trying to hold RED back it worked for about one and a half weeks until someone with a lot of cash chewed in and took a huge chunk of it...they soon removed the rest from the sell list.
Anyhow when there is no debt strong fundementals with strong near future income, no amount of chain will hold it back.
Mark my words the future for RED is awsome.
Bookmark this post and bring it back up in 12 months my freind.
DYOR


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## LostMyShirt (23 October 2011)

Well, see, there is a benifit to this and a reason.

What happens is as what has already been explained in terms of platforms allowing parcel trades. Star, though it is probably feasible to run a trade per second, it defeats the purpose of the system.

The traders exit target was 0.185cps, for instance - without knowing fully his reason or target frame. Now let's say he had 500,000 units of RED, but the bids in 0.185cps were 200K, and for 0.18cps 200K, and 0.175cps had 100K (for arguments sake). Well if he dumps too quickly he won't get his target, he may even lose. However, if he flicks off some parcels over time, the day traders who may see an oppertunity or perhaps people wanting to top up or average down will replenish the 0.185cps bids, allowing him to acertain the price. If he dumped them all, he would spook the market and perhaps fend off buyers.

So, that is what it was in my opinion. Given, it is very annoying. Alas, there is nothing that can be done.


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## Dougs Antiques (23 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Well, see, there is a benifit to this and a reason.
> 
> What happens is as what has already been explained in terms of platforms allowing parcel trades. Star, though it is probably feasible to run a trade per second, it defeats the purpose of the system.
> 
> ...




Personally if I wanted to dump say 500,000 without spooking the market I would do 15 orders at random amounts (40000,30000,50000etc)
I believe that this person(s) didnt want RED up or down on Friday so kept a continuas flow at 18.5 .
If it dropped they force it back up with a buy order at 18.5 and if it rises put a sell order of 18.5 (this is ok if you have plenty to play with).
I know it sounds dumb but the parcels were way to small for someone dumping.
My


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## mr. jeff (23 October 2011)

Firstly I would like to say get outside and don't waste time worrying about someone who sold $12 worth of shares on Friday and listen to Beatle more! 

Nevertheless, I have had a bit of a scout around to see what explanations there are. For curiosities sake, the trading is most likely a MM who needs to show a specific number of transactions in a stock to maintain that status for RED with brokers. That is what I could come up with. Might be weak and open to corrections or dispute.
There appears to be no price manipulation resulting from the orders and at no time did anyone seem to see this trading holding anything down or up. 

The only other suggestion is it appears that the trading was very thin on Friday leading in to Europe's  weekend and maybe (but so few shares traded) someone wanted to underpin the number of trades (couldn't be volume as this was v. small) to dilute any large parcel movements on the day. (Assuming that in looking for large parcels, you were working on volume divided by # trades). For what ends who knows, who really cares. If you want in you could have bought at 18.5 and same if you wanted out - Monday should reflect some optimism from US markets and RED should catch a little wind so anyone that wanted to support the price won't need to anymore and anyone that wanted push it down won't be able to sell down the market anymore. It may be contradictory to say don't waste your time worrying about it, then take the time to form a long post, but may be of interest to someone. Have a nice day.


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## Dougs Antiques (23 October 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> Firstly I would like to say get outside and don't waste time worrying about someone who sold $12 worth of shares on Friday and listen to Beatle more!
> 
> Nevertheless, I have had a bit of a scout around to see what explanations there are. For curiosities sake, the trading is most likely a MM who needs to show a specific number of transactions in a stock to maintain that status for RED with brokers. That is what I could come up with. Might be weak and open to corrections or dispute.
> There appears to be no price manipulation resulting from the orders and at no time did anyone seem to see this trading holding anything down or up.
> ...




Just for the record I just cant get up and go for a walk, I mostly post on this forum when im at work and bored (thank god for laptops)
As for the price movement it did bounce up to 19 cents on a few occasions (6 to be exact).
The 1 minute chart shows it all.
Definatly not a conspiracy and world isnt going to come to an end (its just something trade related to have a chin wag about).
Im sorry If I got up your nose mr.jeff but i do dribble a bit when I get bored


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## LostMyShirt (23 October 2011)

Yes you can throw out 15 random orders but you will pay brokerage 15 times as opposed to the single fee.

Then again, we have another theory in terms of the "MM".

Get up and go for a walk? No chance - My business is here and my investments are here. I watch them until 4-5pm, then I get up


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## mr. jeff (23 October 2011)

All meant light heartedly, no problems at all. I can hardly talk spending the whole day digging around for more information on market action. Lets see what the week brings. 
Should be a positive, perhaps slightly stagnant start to the week. Good luck. 




Just wait until production begins, that will be something to talk about.


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## Starcraftmazter (24 October 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> Nevertheless, I have had a bit of a scout around to see what explanations there are. For curiosities sake, the trading is most likely a MM who needs to show a specific number of transactions in a stock to maintain that status for RED with brokers. That is what I could come up with. Might be weak and open to corrections or dispute.
> There appears to be no price manipulation resulting from the orders and at no time did anyone seem to see this trading holding anything down or up.
> 
> The only other suggestion is it appears that the trading was very thin on Friday leading in to Europe's  weekend and maybe (but so few shares traded) someone wanted to underpin the number of trades (couldn't be volume as this was v. small) to dilute any large parcel movements on the day. (Assuming that in looking for large parcels, you were working on volume divided by # trades). For what ends who knows, who really cares. If you want in you could have bought at 18.5 and same if you wanted out - Monday should reflect some optimism from US markets and RED should catch a little wind so anyone that wanted to support the price won't need to anymore and anyone that wanted push it down won't be able to sell down the market anymore. It may be contradictory to say don't waste your time worrying about it, then take the time to form a long post, but may be of interest to someone. Have a nice day.





Cheers, that's quite interesting.


Now with RED, correct me if I'm wrong, but it is listed here in Australia on the ASX and also in Philippines - and nowhere else? So these US managed funds that only invest in $1+ companies, would they buy it from our stock market or the other(s)? Are we guaranteed any benefit?


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## beatle (24 October 2011)

Wow, you guys were busy posting during the weekend, looks like you really focused those small orders we've been having. Actually that sort of trading has been happening in RED (and many other stocks) for quite a while and in this instance I wonder if it was aimed to make traders take their minds off the main event, with regards to the consolidation proposal. At the end of the day the small orders, even when you aggregate them up, don't amount to much in terms of shares changing hands.

Starcraftmazter has brought up an interesting point, and its quite relevant for RED and future trading. I am unsure if you can trade RED in the Philippines, I do recall some commentary with regard to the company having some arrangement there, but not sure how efficient that trading, if any, is undertaken.

BUT going forward, there is every likelihood that RED will be dual listed (or tri-listed, whatever that word is!) in North America, once it develops steady state production. CGX, which has got a significant shareholding base in North America is listed somewhere over there, and has also been investigating a HK listing. The reason being that those jurisdictions tend to trade at higher multiples to the ASX listings, especially for overseas assets such as in the Philippines. Thus if RED is more readily attractive to the bigger investment fund managers by being seen to have a higher share price, rather than being priced with the stigma of being a penny dreadful, then we are more likely to benefit from going through this consolidation process.

From my point of view if there is any possibility of getting a wider, bigger audience overseas then I am all for it!

I would imagine that RED will put out its quarterly later this week, I understand the chairman is due back mid-week. Its unlikely that an announcement will come out before then, and I am hoping we will see a separate announcement on other matters. Here's hoping...


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## LostMyShirt (24 October 2011)

Beatle; Interesting point. It would be benifitial at the end of the day to be listed around the house - should help the SP.

I thought that perhaps RED was also on the Canadian exchange? I could be thinking of another stock though, can't remember.

Should be an OK week, but I don't know if anyone has noticed - it takes RED a long time to recover from hits and breakouts are hard to come by in this Stock.

At this time of posting the ASX is up over 80 points (XAO) and RED's sp has only moved a notch in the Bid/Ask section.

On a side note, The price of Gold is trading in that tight range for quite some time, but the Aussie price has dwindled slightly. I made some very nice paper money on IG Markets trading the spot gold  Also took a long position for the week on RED as I expect to see 0.205cps by weeks end and entry at 0.195cps.
I think I mentioned earlier that I got my 0.185cps order filled, so it's good to see some early profits from that parcel.


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## beatle (24 October 2011)

Hi LMS, its amazing to see how RED is performing today, especially as we get close to the end of the month knowing what positive things are likely to occur in the coming 5 weeks. Will those selling now regret it, will us who remain positive regret not buying more. I keep wondering what will initiate the next move up, of course I'm convinced its just around the corner, will it have to wait for the gold pour to occur or some other step, presumably before that much awaited gold pour.

For me its just a matter of a short time, not IF but WHEN!

I'm waiting impatiently RED...


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## LostMyShirt (24 October 2011)

beatle said:


> Hi LMS, its amazing to see how RED is performing today, especially as we get close to the end of the month knowing what positive things are likely to occur in the coming 5 weeks. Will those selling now regret it, will us who remain positive regret not buying more. I keep wondering what will initiate the next move up, of course I'm convinced its just around the corner, will it have to wait for the gold pour to occur or some other step, presumably before that much awaited gold pour.
> 
> For me its just a matter of a short time, not IF but WHEN!
> 
> I'm waiting impatiently RED...




No mate - this Gold Pour is going to do little to the SP. I do not expect anything over 25cps by Nov' at which point I will be offloading the complete holdings.

If you are expecting the full valuation, you are going to have to wait until next year in my honest opinion - that is a mere speculation. Then again waiting should not be an issue for most of the holders here who have been inthe game for years as I've only been in for months.


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## mr. jeff (24 October 2011)

May be food for thought ? Could be a familiar name or two on there and a good insight into some "peers"..





(Obviously not from RED's) website.


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## LostMyShirt (24 October 2011)

That is fair enough, Jeff.

Though it is a well known fact that RED will not be producing Gold that would match the likes of the big boys; I believe most people are waiting for the NPV or near price that it should be before being satisfied with the stock.

Though I duely respect the long term holders who have been in RED for years, I do feel that my target price is end-game, for the time being.


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## Buckfont (24 October 2011)

AS an adjunct, Integra had an ann, on 27/9/10 of their first gold pour. Their sp at the time was close to 0.50c. hitting a high of 0.76c mid December. A close of 0.48c today.

I know Valencias and Navels are different. I would like to hear peoples opinions on whether RED will go down thw same track, as I have difficulty understanding whats in the ground in these two cases to make their scenarios different.


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## Moit (24 October 2011)

Hi all RED club members. Beatle I'm with you on this one. Its just a matter of time at the moment. I don't know if an announcement will trigger the run up with the SP, or just the fact we are nearing production status. I myself predict the latter...

As for the consolidation, it is going to take some getting use to, if of course voted in. But if it will draw more instos in, eradicate the threshold that some institutional investors have (which in turn will only push the Sp higher), than I'm all for it.

I put my money where my mouth is today and topped up with 65 000 at 19. I'm not at all boasting about my purchase, rather letting people know that we are not going to see these prices in the next month or two. In fact probably never see them again with RED. It would have been nice to spend that amount at 13 or 14 cents, but lets face it, those prices are long gone. The next week or two is probably the LAST CHANCE you will have to top up at the sub 20 level. 

Look at the big picture. Explorer to PRODUCER within 5 weeks. Dig deep my friends, i don't believe you'll regret it...

Cheers Moit...


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## LostMyShirt (24 October 2011)

Does anyone else think that the SP consolidation may bring volatility to the stock? I feel that it will not only attract insto's but also traders as well. I don't know if that is a good or bad thing.


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## Starcraftmazter (25 October 2011)

Just to follow up on my comments. So if RED is listed at other exchanges, will they place an offering of new shares, or simply trade the same shares? If they offer new shares, won't that obviously dilute and devalue all current holders' shares?

And if it will trade the same shares, must they not be priced the same (after currency conversion), otherwise could you engage in arbitrage?

Again, I haven't got experience with that sort of stuff before, so anyone who does please feel free to pour the knowledge 



In regards to today's SP action, I was very surprised this morning, largely because personally I do not see the source of the rally, and so I called shenanigans and refused to buy. I was quite relieved to check back at 3:50pm and see my views were vindicated, at least for RED, having it's SP retreat right to where it was.

I do agree broadly with this comment though:



Moit said:


> The next week or two is probably the LAST CHANCE you will have to top up at the sub 20 level.




Barring anything catastrophic, this is in line with my predictions. I will continue to watch closely over the course of this week.


One more question. Today I got what I think was an annual report for RED in the mail, along with some voting papers for various matters (such as the share consolidation). I am wondering, since I have had sold RED since they sent this out, am I still eligible to vote? Is eligibility determined on the date they send the papers?


Cheers


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## LostMyShirt (25 October 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Just to follow up on my comments. So if RED is listed at other exchanges, will they place an offering of new shares, or simply trade the same shares? If they offer new shares, won't that obviously dilute and devalue all current holders' shares?
> 
> And if it will trade the same shares, must they not be priced the same (after currency conversion), otherwise could you engage in arbitrage?
> 
> ...




Haha, Star.

Got the same report in my mail box today as well - looked official. Nice Annual Report and some voting papers to elect directors that I have no idea about.


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## beatle (25 October 2011)

Hi All, good to see the posts but sad to see the shocking trading in RED at the moment. I simply can't believe we are still sitting at this level, especially in a week that I would have thought would provide some excitement for RED shareholders. Of course the week is still young so lets hope that we get some positive announcements out soon.

As for some of the comments/questions:

Buckfont. A comparision with IGR is quite apt I would say, although noting the different sovereign risk profiles, with IGR operating out of Western Australia (not necessarily all positive, with the mining tax looming!).

I will refer to RED noting that its yet to get into production, at a rate not dissimilar to IGR. In terms of the operations IGR is quite a low cost gold producer at just over A$500 per ounce, and RED is expected to be similar. Both start as open pits, with IGR now planning trial underground mining, and RED will undertake U/g sometime around year 4 or 5 or 6 (bearing in mind they are in the process of changing their production schedule based on a revised resource base).

At this stage it appears IGR has around 6 years mine life, RED has 10 years based on reserves.

RED has got A$17 million cash (nil debt) at end of developing the project, IGR has a rising cash kitty with monthly gold production underway, but last reported was A$38 million cash less A$26 million debt. IGR has got some forwards in place (couldn't see how many and at what price, this is a wildcard, it could give a better or worse outlook depending on whether they are in the money at present).

Market cap of IGR currently A$404 million. RED market cap A$237 million (at 18.5 cents). Thus if we can expect RED to come online in the next month successfully then RED has an immediate outlook to move towards A$404 if we compare it to IGR. That would presume a share price move from 18.5 cents towards 31.5 cents on a pre-consolidated basis.

I would suggest that RED looks quite attractive currently compared to IGR, subject to successful commissioning and gold production.

As to the Proxy form, its an interesting question Starcraftmazter. Theoretically only those registered at 48 hours of the meeting are entitled to vote, and I'm pretty sure that the registry will null and void any votes that come in from parties not on the registry at that time, but who knows for sure, lol! In fact when I was in charge of a company I used to keep a tally of the votes that came in prior to the meeting, just to keep in touch with the sentiment of anything a bit controversial and I never thought about how that sentiment might be swayed by shareholders who sold out before the meeting. But in any event I'm pretty sure it is determined at the time of that final registration of shareholders 48 hours prior to the meeting.

And no Star, RED will NOT put more shares out to any other exchange in the event it becomes listed elsewhere. You may be aware of the American Depository Receipts that are referred to for BHP etc, its a similar arrangement for RED if it were listed elsewhere. It enables non-American domiciled companies to trade on the US markets, and it would be a similar arrangement for any other stock exchange. And between markets there is always some potential for arbitrage, but it can go both ways!


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## jah008 (25 October 2011)

I think there may be alot hesitancy in RED due to the share consolidation. I think people could be waiting to see what happens. But thats just my thoughts...


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## Buckfont (25 October 2011)

Thanks beatle for that in depth comparison. I did alright out of IGR and hope to do the same with RED. By the way were you able to find out if they are thinking of producing a commorative 1oz bar. Management never reply to my emails.


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## Moit (25 October 2011)

Hi all. 
I'm not sure what is going on with this Sp, but it isn't very appealing considering we are so close to first gold pour, (only weeks away ). Maybe the uncertainty of the Euro debt crisis is keeping investors from putting their hard earned into the market, OR they are waiting for an up-trend to pounce, OR an announcement that could or will prove that RED 5 LIMITED is that one step closer to producing gold...

I know i said in my last post that i believe RED will start to move in just shear knowledge, that RED is in that transition phase from explorer to producer. I still believe this maybe the case as Ive seen so many times in the past. It just takes off, and off no real unbelievable news. It goes up, then the big boys jump on, as we seen just recently when the Sp took off to 24 cents.

But, and i maybe contradicting myself, I think RED management need to have a really good think how they are going to announce this news of a GOLD explorer come producer in the Philippines, to the Australian market. Don't get me wrong RED management have done a fantastic job in getting SIANA where it is today. Though they can be a bit blasÃ© in there announcements. I really hope they get this right. Because, we all know if it doesn't come across that well, the market wont react in a positive fashion as we have just seen with the consolidating of the shares...By no means am i bagging management as we are seeing great results regarding community support, marketing, first aid and a mine under construction. I just really prey that they as a company can pull this off to the Aussie market and beyond...

These are just my thoughts as i live and breath RED 5 daily, as a company and put every available dollar on this stock. (At times more than i should have, ask the wife.) But this is something i truly believe in and will shine in the near future...

Cheers Moit


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## Starcraftmazter (25 October 2011)

beatle said:


> But in any event I'm pretty sure it is determined at the time of that final registration of shareholders 48 hours prior to the meeting.
> 
> And no Star, RED will NOT put more shares out to any other exchange in the event it becomes listed elsewhere. You may be aware of the American Depository Receipts that are referred to for BHP etc, its a similar arrangement for RED if it were listed elsewhere. It enables non-American domiciled companies to trade on the US markets, and it would be a similar arrangement for any other stock exchange. And between markets there is always some potential for arbitrage, but it can go both ways!




Thanks beatle, very good information as always 


Today I got another package from the share registry, again with the same voting forms for RED 


Anyway, one other thing I wanted to bring up which I have not seen any discussion of - RED's silver. RED claims they have silver deposits along with gold at the same site (correct me if wrong) and intend to produce silver. I am wondering, will their processing plant handle both? Do they intent to start producing both simultaneously? What proportion of their profit will come from silver, or better put what proportion of total minerals mined does silver make up?

It should be noted that silver behaves in a slightly different way to gold as it has far more industrial utility than gold. However it has historically been valued much higher relative to gold than it is now, whenever it backed a currency. Thus if @#$% hits the fan anytime soon, it would be quite good 


Thanks


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## beatle (26 October 2011)

Moit, you are SPOT ON!!! And no reason to be concerned whether you offend RED management/board or not. Words of wisdom, and with much passion, and I only hope that someone associated with RED reads your words and acts on them. If I were to judge RED's attempts to market themselves I would give them a low rating. And its not me saying that due to frustration only, its because clearly there are many people out there who trade shares and really don't know about RED and its Siana gold project. Over the years I have discussed the company with so many people and it really amazes me that most have no idea of the project whatsoever, despite me talking with people who are involved in the mining industry! And on a comparative basis there are few projects so close to first production with such a long life and with low operating costs. Its a shame that the only way people will learn about it is when that production begins!

I think that Jah008 is probably correct, that some shareholders, maybe traders, are concerned with the consolidation process, maybe they associate it to the much smaller unsuccessful companies that undertake consolidations in an effort to raise funds. But as I have stated previously, RED is not doing it for that reason at all!

With regard to silver Starcraftmazter, you will note that RED occasionally refers to dore production. This is effectively the smelted product that comes out of the CIL process, a mixture of gold, silver and possibly some slight amounts of base metals (usually copper in some ores). The CIL process involves the crushed and ground ore being introduced into tanks containing sodium cyanide (plus lime for alkalinity) plus activated carbon (introduced into the leach tanks, as opposed to another process being CIP where the carbon is introduced after leaching). Firstly the cyanide solution leaches the metals out of the ore into solution, which is then attracted to carbon. Usually silver is captured in preference to the gold, but whatever the carbon contains silver, gold and base metals. This "pregnant" activated carbon is then smelted to produce a dore product. In the case of Siana there will be a fair amount of silver in the dore product, thus the dore will be higher quantities of lower fineness dore. Overall the recovery of gold to final product is higher than the overall recovery of silver but still significant amounts of silver goes into that final dore product - to the extent of an estimated 1.44 million ounces silver with the estimated 849,000 ounces of gold produced.

So in short Star, yes the silver comes out in the same circuit as the gold, it doesn't need to come out in a separate process.


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## Starcraftmazter (26 October 2011)

So they'll be selling both gold and silver from the onset? Awesome.

Now some good news, gold has shot up by *over 3%* to over $1700 overnight, breaking out of it's trading range! Apparently QE hopes again.


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## beatle (26 October 2011)

Yes RED will be selling both gold & silver from the outset. But of course the recovered silver is already included in cash flow analysis of the NPV valuation. 

The gold price moving back up last night is great news, as much as anything to highlight to the market that gold's froth & bubble remains intact, that gold equities have not yet finished enjoying their time in the sun!

I also firmly believe that coming into the Festive season we should see the cyclical trend of increasing demand for physical gold, which will cause gold traders to focus & speculate on rising prices. It would be great to see gold moving towards record prices at a time when RED announces it has begun producing gold in ever increasing monthly amounts.


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## Moit (26 October 2011)

Hi all RED club members. Its great to see gold up 3% over night, breaking that $1700 resistance. Lets hope it continues and with a bit of luck REDS Sp will move in conjunction.

Just a quick word and scenario on the consolidation...

A few months or so back i was checking my watch list for daily movements when i noticed CTM, Centaurus Metals Ltd went from 5.5 cents to 55 cents in a day. My smart phone read something like 1300% gain. As i was just amazed and dumb founded i thought this couldn't be right. So i rang the company. They were in the process to consolidate the companies capital on a 1 for 8 basis. As it turned out my smart phone wasn't really that smart as it wasn't a gain at all...

Much the same as RED only we are looking at a 1 for 10 basis...

So basically if you owned 100000 shares it would now be 10000. Pretty simple. Now if REDS Sp is at 20 cents at the time of pre consolidation, it would take the Sp to $2.00 post consolidation. Please correct me if i'm wrong. What i'm trying to figure out and not to sure about is what would be more difficult? Going from 20c to 40c in a re-rating, or going from $2.00 to $4.00. In theoretical terms it would be much of muchness. Ive just seen many stocks such as MGX and AGO just float around current prices. I know they are not gold stocks and market caps are very different. Imo i'm just thinking how hard it would actually be to go from $2 to $4. Unless of course we had some major instos on board. Just my thoughts once again. 

Maybe Beatle can shed some light on the subject.

Lets hope today is a good day for RED. Good luck to all holders.


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## beatle (26 October 2011)

Hi Moit, yes its great to see the gold price moving up, and I agree that it would be great to see some more active involvement by insto's on the RED register - not just new insto's but also current insto's on board! Let's hope sooner than later. 

I have a feeling that a few of the current crop are getting tired now and might be moving out, thus the reason for some largish dumps today plus earlier on. If they are moving on its no big deal if their positions can be taken out, if you recall Matthews earlier selling down from 17 odd percent had a prolonged negative impact on RED share price, I imagine Matthews could be doing similar again, but if it is and once they are free of shares, imagine the move up! (This is just supposition by me though, and also its unimaginable that a major holder like Matthews wouldn't arrange a large take out to another buyer, but they didn't do that in the recent past for some crazy reason - very amateurish, but it provides an opportunity at this critical time when we are about to get a re-rating for sure IMO of course!).

As to your comments re the consolidation process, you are quite correct that assuming shareholders approve this restructuring of capital, then theoretically we would expect the first move up on a 1 for 10 consolidation, it will go from say current share price of $0.185 cents, to $1.85. I hope that in the meantime of course that it will move up in the coming weeks due to other positive announcements.

As to what will it stay at and how easy is it to move from $2 - $4 compared to $0.20 - $0.40, well it really should work related to market perception of worth in market capitalisation terms, ie the share price x number of shares on issue. At the changeover of the consolidation the market cap should remain the same as immediately prior to consolidation, theoretically, and therefore any moves up or down on market cap thereafter will be reflected in share price according to the number of shares on issue. And thats why I keep saying that RED's share of Siana, with an NPV way above its current market cap, even at much lower gold prices, RED continues to be at a substantial discount to intrinsic value!

There is an issue that will arise too - trading volumes will reduce accordingly and this could impact on volatility of the share price, despite RED suggesting it will reduce volatility of prices due to reduced differential between trading levels (of 1 cents at the consolidated dollar value compared to the minimum 0.5 cents for trading at levels immediately above 10 cents and their relative impact on volatility - sorry but its hard to explain this point any easier for me!).


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## Chasero (26 October 2011)

RED heavily sold off today, (over 6m shares traded) even with gold price rising.

Looks like people do not want to hold small caps ahead of the Wednesday meeting tomorrow. Was a risk off day..


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## beatle (26 October 2011)

Its a glass half full, or half empty day for RED today IMO!

If we look at some of the small gold producers/explorers today, this was actually not a risk off day for the goldies - to name more than a few: SLR, BDR, IAU, AZM, NGF, SBM, OGC, MML, IGR. Thus there was in fact a lot of demand for gold stocks, whether its the better explorers, or mid or small gold producers, not a risk off day whatsoever for gold stocks.

Watching the trading in RED the past few weeks and wondering why there is so many shares being added to the sell side continuously while the buyers have slowly been building before getting slammed back time after time. This happened a while back when RED got taken back to 16 cents. That's why I made the comment earlier today that it seems very similar to when Matthews was clearly trading out a while back, on market (crazy!). I believe that today was deja vu, and the close was just the same style of trading, and for me its like watching Matthews fingerprint on the trades!

And why is it glass half full? Because I would imagine that Matthews has been trying to get out completely for a while and has had limited Bids to sell into. NOW we are getting those buyers eager to get into RED at this time before RED makes some more positive announcements regarding Siana commissioning, fused with the move up by the gold overnight. 

This may well provide the mechanism for Matthews to exit completely in the coming weeks, thus not affecting RED's expected run up once production begins. This must be a positive for us holders who would prefer to see Matthews out completely, he was useful for a long period of time but has hurt RED's share price in the past couple of months. 

I know this post will be a contraversial view, and it may well be completely wrong, but seems to me the volume of trading today and the dumps through the day confirm its the correct conclusion.

But to be honest I really can't understand this crazy style of trading. Why doesn't he do a deal with another insto and simply exit in one hit, surely he would make more money out of it!!!


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## nomore4s (26 October 2011)

Chasero said:


> RED heavily sold off today, (over 6m shares traded) even with gold price rising.
> 
> Looks like people do not want to hold small caps ahead of the Wednesday meeting tomorrow. Was a risk off day..




How is it heavily sold off when it is flat for the day?

While 6m is above average volume it is nothing out of the ordinary, I personally don't see anything about today that was bullish or bearish.


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## Moit (26 October 2011)

Hi all, hi Beatle. I just want to thank you mate for replying to my last post. RE, consolidation. You mentioned a few important points. 1 in particular that i hadn't considered was volume. It will certainly depreciate dramatically, and have an impact on volatility. It will definitely take some getting used to if voted in. I'm pretty sure i will be voting yes.

As for dumping of the shares. I agree with you also. To be honest its giving me the #$@*#. If it is Mathews, yes we are used to it and yes its an opportune time for them. Because people are keen to jump on board. But for us long termer's this is OUR TIME that we have been waiting for and i feel whoever is responsible should be ashamed of themselves. RED is being held back from its potential, especially with gold on the rise. And so close to game time. We are missing out. They have really timed it well. There was only 2 shares at close, the difference between finishing at 18.5c. It was a cat and mouse game and i believe the one person is responsible. Something else to look out for is the lots of 100000 at pre-open to entice the market then pulling just prior. Its been going on for a week. I hope it doesn't go on for to long..

Not a happy camper. Cheers Moit


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## fwpike (26 October 2011)

I note that the Annual Report page 5 says, in part, "Major changes include....and purchasing a new SAG mill rather than refurbishing a used mill" 
Some years ago, and it seems prior to the earliest of the announcements on the Red 5 site, Red 5 management announced the purchase of some sort of used mill, in W.A. as I recall, the cost and transport of which cost many millions. This was seen then as speeding the process and saving money. Would anyone know if this quoted para refers obliquely to this earlier mill? 
As well as voting against the share consolidation, (which will not change the price as quickly as increased yield will, from my observation of other companies following similar "clever" stratagems) I am voting against the increased remunerations all round.
When increased remuneration is attached to increased dividends they will get my vote.
PS in my opinion Mathews or anyone else is entitled to sell what they want when they want.


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## fastbuck1 (26 October 2011)

fwpike said:


> I note that the Annual Report page 5 says, in part, "Major changes include....and purchasing a new SAG mill rather than refurbishing a used mill"
> Some years ago, and it seems prior to the earliest of the announcements on the Red 5 site, Red 5 management announced the purchase of some sort of used mill, in W.A. as I recall, the cost and transport of which cost many millions. This was seen then as speeding the process and saving money. Would anyone know if this quoted para refers obliquely to this earlier mill?
> As well as voting against the share consolidation, (which will not change the price as quickly as increased yield will, from my observation of other companies following similar "clever" stratagems) I am voting against the increased remunerations all round.
> When increased remuneration is attached to increased dividends they will get my vote.
> PS in my opinion Mathews or anyone else is entitled to sell what they want when they want.




my vote will also be against, have been in pna, arx, epy all gone down after consolidation , arx consolidated its sp went from .30 now just .013 epy just as bad , in fact i don't know of any company's share price thats moved up after consolidation, hope someone can name afew...


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## Moit (26 October 2011)

Fwpike, everyone is entitled to there own opinion, im just voicing mine. A bit like you tried to do with resolution 10...


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## Chasero (26 October 2011)

nomore4s said:


> How is it heavily sold off when it is flat for the day?
> 
> While 6m is above average volume it is nothing out of the ordinary, I personally don't see anything about today that was bullish or bearish.




Because gold price went up (and rallied quite a bit), which usually means red shares would go up.

Plus look at the volume, 3-4 times the average and yet the share price remains the same. This could only mean someone is getting rid of a large volume of stock.

Looks like a large holder has been dumping a portion of their holdings, keeping RED share price capped for now.

I think 6m is definitely out of the ordinary, I haven't seen RED trade that much in the past 3 weeks. (Usually 1-3m)

I see it as slightly bearish. Just that someone is getting rid of a large volume. Who knows could be his mistake, but they probably didn't want to hold too much small caps going into tomorrows big decision.

Other gold equities rallied hard today, e.g. MML (which I also hold). Just a little worried that RED may stay stuck at 18c for a while yet. Really strong demand for RED today yet equally strong selling.


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## Starcraftmazter (27 October 2011)

Moit said:


> Imo i'm just thinking how hard it would actually be to go from $2 to $4. Unless of course we had some major instos on board. Just my thoughts once again.
> 
> Maybe Beatle can shed some light on the subject.




It really makes zero different as far as the share consolidation goes.

Whether the share price is 0.20, $2, $20 or $2,000,000 - so long as the market cap is the same, you will buy the same $ value of shares for the same % proportion of shares.



beatle said:


> There is an issue that will arise too - trading volumes will reduce accordingly and this could impact on volatility of the share price, despite RED suggesting it will reduce volatility of prices due to reduced differential between trading levels (of 1 cents at the consolidated dollar value compared to the minimum 0.5 cents for trading at levels immediately above 10 cents and their relative impact on volatility - sorry but its hard to explain this point any easier for me!).




I agree with you; load of nonsense probably taught at business school by people who don't know maths. Of course I'm generalising a bit but 



Chasero said:


> RED heavily sold off today, (over 6m shares traded) even with gold price rising.




Not sure if I agree with that assessment. In my view it was bought up more so than it was sold down. If you look at the trade volume per price, most took place at 0.185, and some at 0.190 - which is pretty good considering the stock started the day at 0.180.

The buyer-seller gap has also widened with more buyers once again.



Chasero said:


> Because gold price went up (and rallied quite a bit), which usually means red shares would go up.




It is the fundamental nature that mining companies be valued based on the volume of their deposits and the price of their mineral, however this is far from the only thing the market looks at. Furthermore, just because it didn't go up with gold does not mean it was sold down regardless of that. Clearly there are much bigger issues ongoing (such as the expected overnight European plan).



Chasero said:


> Plus look at the volume, 3-4 times the average and yet the share price remains the same. This could only mean someone is getting rid of a large volume of stock.




I would not say it is 3-4 times average, but rather returning to average after a few weeks of below average volume. Furthermore, it does not mean someone was dumping a lot; it could simply mean there were a lot of traders which tried to take advantage of the gold price movement and buy at the lower bound to sell at the higher bound (guilty). Furthermore, as I've said previously, overall, in terms of volume and price there were far more trades above 0.180 than at, so I would dispute that it was _completely_ flat.




Chasero said:


> Looks like a large holder has been dumping a portion of their holdings, keeping RED share price capped for now.
> 
> I think 6m is definitely out of the ordinary, I haven't seen RED trade that much in the past 3 weeks. (Usually 1-3m)
> 
> ...




Honestly, how can you look at the last 3 weeks and reference that as the average? How about last 3 months at least?


We are all entitled to our opinions of course. Mine is that some proportion of holders are betting a certain way on the European announcement tomorrow, and have decided to use the gold rally in order to sell off their holdings into very buoyant buying today.


I would not be worried about RED, and in my view we will get a clearer picture once Europe finishes it's grand plan - be that overnight, by the end of this week, or next...


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## Chasero (27 October 2011)

Good news is that Gold broke out of resistance, the great $1700.00 mark and shooting upwards.

Lots of traders see this as a bullish sign for gold to continue it's up trend, which will be good for RED.

I'm expecting RED to hit 18.5c today.


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## beatle (27 October 2011)

Wow, I opened up this ASF to see an avalanche of posts on many interesting topics, its great to see the activity, and oh how things have changed in that regard for RED. Looks like RED is more than a pennydreadful now! We now have 110,000 odd views in 1,410 posts, primarily happening in the past 18 months. Real cool...

Thanks Moit for your comments, from my point of view its a real pleasure to know you and the other posters via this site. And whilst we all may have slightly different views and objectives, seems like we all have been able to collectively develop an understanding of the issues and factors relevant to investing in RED from various angles and points of view. I've found it quite beneficial, particularly whilst it has allowed me to vent my frustrations at the highly discounted price too!

And eh Moit, I had to laugh when you referred to Fwpike and Resolution 10, lol! 

Now in relation to Fwpike's comment about the mill. Now you are testing my memory, it becomes patchy on some details, but I will give you my general recollections. The original feasibility study and plant design started a @#$% long time ago, around 2005/2006. At that time there was a dearth of mills anywhere in the world, due to increased demand from the mining/construction sector. Even prior to getting too far down the track with the plant design it was decided by management that it made sense to secure a mill to reduce lead time. Naively management thought there was only a couple of years before they would be in production at Siana!

So they sought to secure a mill and source a mill, one of two available, located in the Philippines. I don't recall where exactly, but it certainly was somewhere in the Philippines, not WA. The sister to that mill was purchased by CGX for its Masbate operation. Subsequently, with Masbate coming online far sooner than Siana CGX has their mill up and running, but in fact it had a major structural defect that caused its failure on startup. Since that time RED clearly had concerns with its mill, and even though it was put into a workshop for major refurbishment it was clear that reliance on that mill was a potential risk for the project. Thus CGX has managed to get more of the associated gear from RED re that mill, and hopefully ultimately RED will be able to sell the mill shell off, but I think they have lost a fair amount of money on it - its original cost was around A$1.5 million, and with other gear they got a A$2.0 million credit facility through Soc Gen. (My memory is not too bad after all!).

As for your comment Fwpike re anyone is allowed to sell at any time. Of course they are allowed to sell, but knowing how many shares that Matthews has got (and had!), I would have thought it was smarter to sell down off-market, or at least with an agreed buyer sitting there to take up the shares. Instead we have to sit here waiting for them to get off the screen for a few months. Don't get me wrong, I am happy if they sell it down a bit more because I will be buying some more too if the price gets ridiculous (its ridiculous already though). In fact I would have thought that RED could facilitate this selling out process, but clearly Matthews and RED don't see eye to eye if I am reading it correctly! Earlier on Matthews was critically important to RED, their investment was key to maintaining RED's share price at a crucial time, but now with the sell down it is a bit frustrating, but to be honest I can't understand it, having waited so long to make real money out of the investment!

It might be that Matthews doesn't agree with the consolidation process, so has decided to get out beforehand, but seems to me he has made the prophecy self-fulfilling!

As to which companies have recently gone through consolidations, well there are consolidations and there are consolidations! It depends very much on how/why they reconstructed their share capital. The reason why a lot of people don't like them is from personal experience having been invested in smaller companies that can't raise funds in the market and have to consolidate to raise cash.

But there is a slightly different class of company, not pennydreadfuls, that reconstruct their capital due to either mergers or similar. Those companies include companies such as Altona, AOH (Finnish copper/nickel assets merged with Universal's Roseby copper project), Ozminerals (after its selldown of assets), to name a few. The short time frame during the consolidation process is completely over-ridden by the events post consolidation and sets the company up for far great success. 

In the case of RED you have to recognise that this resolution will only happen to succeed if the many instos on RED's books back the idea. AND if they back it then imagine the limited stock available for any new investors, bearing in mind RED has 30 odd instos holding around 65% of stock available. I can see RED shooting up on a completely different tangent once the consolidation is bedded down, and with limited stock available it will become a must sought after gold producer! It certainly will get top dollar in the event of any opportunitistic takeover attempts!


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## fwpike (27 October 2011)

There are many reasons to sell, (one's wife wants a new car, divorce, a better more immediate trade in the offing, want to lock in a profit, need money for any reason) that are totally separate  from the vendor's perception of long term value of the shares being sold. There is however really only one reason to buy. Therefore the fact that the share price is holding its own against strong downward pressure, ie people are buying, is encouraging to me. 
None of this is relevant to the proposed pay rises and share consolidation that are of the moment. I see no reason to grant big pay increases just yet. The fact that there will soon be more money to go around isn't relevant unless are least some is headed my way in dividends. Red's head office/board/senior management costs in relation to income is quite high in my opinion for a relatively small mine. And if these guys have wasted millions on unused crushing equipment then I see less reason to grant large increases.
IMHO , the effect of not voting down the second tranche of shares in Res 10 has been that we now have a large block of shares bought at 17c in oder to raise money that doesn't appear to be necessary. The holders of these shares will once again IMHO sell into any reasonable price rise  thus taking short term profits at our expense and keeping a lid on the share price at our expense.  I wasn't able to stop it but I do not regret trying


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## fwpike (27 October 2011)

Thank You Beatle for your clarification on the matter of the purchased equipment. You are indeed remarkably well versed in matters Red. 
I can't say that I agree that consolidation will make stock more scarce. The holder will still want to sell, and the buyer to buy,  so many thousands of dollars worth of stock regardless of the numbers bought and sold.


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## Nasser (27 October 2011)

Maybe Mathews did try to flog their original parcel of 227m shares but had no takers at their price. The notice Mathews lodged on 31st Aug showed that they still had 104m shares on hand. Since then the turnover of shares in RED has been approx 200m, so IF Mathews is selling then the selling should be cleared before the first pour. IMO of course


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## beatle (27 October 2011)

fwpike said:


> Thank You Beatle for your clarification on the matter of the purchased equipment. You are indeed remarkably well versed in matters Red.
> I can't say that I agree that consolidation will make stock more scarce. The holder will still want to sell, and the buyer to buy,  so many thousands of dollars worth of stock regardless of the numbers bought and sold.




Very happy to provide any information that I can Fwpike, but to be honest its the things that I have forgotten that makes me worried, lol! 

Actually I don't have a problem with a lot of what you say and think. Whilst I don't want to necessarily or specifically "have a go" at anyone at RED, I agree that management salaries need to be earned, and it has always been an issue to me that RED have made sure they look after themselves relative to the other expenses incurred! In that respect I'm not impressed that the audit committee apparently approved a base salary increase for the MD, from $290 - 440K, an increase of 52% which I consider inappropriate, and the fact that the CFO had a huge salary granted to him, more salary than what a number of CEO's in other small companies get, and yet he didn't take over the work of the Company Secretary! Those are anomalies, and additionally the Chairman, who is a non-exec (supposedly) earned $165k consulting. I realise the Chairman has been instrumental with undertaking a number of tasks that might otherwise be undertaken by an Australian based MD. 

I have been an outstpoken critic of the way RED management was set up once Siana became primary focus for the company, and has evolved over time, and why I believe that the MD should be located in Australia and more corporate focussed rather than project focussed. The situation that has developed has evolved to an extent that causes a need for sharing of tasks, which in turn has resulted in higher aggregated salaries to accomodate such inefficiency.


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## beatle (27 October 2011)

Hi Nasser, not that I want to scare anyone with this post, but as you say, and according to Matthews declaration of 104 million shares as at 31 Auguest, seems to me since then there's been around 160 million shares in total traded in RED (are you sure its 200 million, I stand to be corrected, I just added up the weekly totals since 1 Sept). 

I don't believe that the trading we saw in the past couple of months has been always characteristic of how the trading went yesterday which I would presume is more along the lines of Matthews' style. Thus my firm view is that whilst he may have sold down over the past few months I wouldn't mind betting he still holds a fair number, say at least half his past declaration, say 50 million. Of course at that level he theoretically should be putting out an announcement that he is no longer a substantial shareholder but seems he does not necessarily go out of his way to inform the market in a timely fashion!

But in any event, we will possibly get the move up once he pulls out or stops selling, and then it will be an exciting time as we FINALLY get that re-rating, whether it be on a consolidated basis or not!


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## LostMyShirt (27 October 2011)

I've woken up this morning to see RED in "Enquire" status - I don't know what this mean as I've never seen this status in a stock before.

Can someone tell me what the go is here?


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## snsdmonkey (27 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I've woken up this morning to see RED in "Enquire" status - I don't know what this mean as I've never seen this status in a stock before.
> 
> Can someone tell me what the go is here?




The ASX is down with a glitch. All stocks have an 'Enquire' status at the moment.


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## fwpike (27 October 2011)

" why I believe that the MD should be located in Australia and more corporate focussed rather than project focussed. "

Very well put overall Beatle but not sure I agree with the quote above. Not much gold dug in or by head office. If they have too many staff they will spend their days doing make-work things like share consolidations and such that require much scurrying about but which at the end of the day do not produce any more gold.


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## Nasser (27 October 2011)

G'day Beatle, just did a quick check & got 215m shares traded since 1st Sept.
I agree that Matthews could be still holding about 50m. I though that they should be able to off load this amount over the next month as am thinking the share price should hold around these levels. 
Thx for your posts on this thread


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## beatle (27 October 2011)

Nasser said:


> G'day Beatle, just did a quick check & got 215m shares traded since 1st Sept.
> I agree that Matthews could be still holding about 50m. I though that they should be able to off load this amount over the next month as am thinking the share price should hold around these levels.
> Thx for your posts on this thread




Well thank you Nasser, I guess I missed a few (tens of millions, lol), of trading in RED over that time period! And I agree that the market for RED should continue to be reasonably buoyant knowing what is ahead, so that they can get out without too much of a hassle.

Fwpike I think we (or someone else and myself) had a similar conversation in posts maybe about 18 months ago, and again we take a slightly different stand on this. The reason I am concerned is that there is a lot of overlap of tasks because the MD isn't fully focused on corporate matters due to him being located in Manila or on site. Thus the co-ordination of various corporate matters then falls to others who manage to scalp a pretty good salary/consulting fee out of it as a result. I don't disagree that the gold is produced onsite, but you do pay good salaries to professionals to do that job. Actually whilst GE is a very good project focused person and has a fantastic relationship with the local stakeholders, he might not be the right person tending to some of the corporate tasks that normally are the responsibility of the MD. Just my view.

Ohh this ASX glitch is a real pain!


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## beatle (27 October 2011)

Despite the 4 hour delay to trading, I'm really impressed with how RED is holding up despite some lumpy 250,000 sell orders hitting the market at 18.5 cents. 

Now, if those sell orders start to dry up, just imagine . . .


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## Chasero (27 October 2011)

Up she goes 

Huge relief today, EU leaders pulled through! (or appear to be) Could've been catastrophic!


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## beatle (27 October 2011)

Chasero it may have been catastrophic for the general market. I believe RED is a situation stock that has the benefits of an expectation of first gold around the corner, and its mining the world currency (just imagine being able to print money, that's what RED will be doing via its CIL plant, sort of the gold version of a money tree)! 

AND since gold is also trending up again RED is even more attractive.

Perhaps the price is doing well as there is an announcement due in the next couple of days (at the latest).


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## Moit (27 October 2011)

beatle said:


> Chasero it may have been catastrophic for the general market. I believe RED is a situation stock that has the benefits of an expectation of first gold around the corner, and its mining the world currency (just imagine being able to print money, that's what RED will be doing via its CIL plant, sort of the gold version of a money tree)!
> 
> AND since gold is also trending up again RED is even more attractive.
> 
> Perhaps the price is doing well as there is an announcement due in the next couple of days (at the latest).






Hi all RED club members. Hi Beatle. So what announcement do you think might be over the horizon?? Hopefully something to do with wet commissioning. Oh, how close are we.. I must thank you to mate. Your like the god Father to us RED investors and your wealth of knowledge is invaluable to us. Without you, im sure many of us wouldn't even bother posting. Thank you.

So you had a laugh earlier, i was waiting for someone to respond. Your memory isn't that bad, lol.

Anyhow back to RED. Not a bad days trading considering we only had two hours to do it in. Good volume and a good finish. Lets hope this is the start of some great times ahead.

Cheers Moit.


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## beatle (27 October 2011)

Hi Moit, agreed a great trading day for RED under the circumstances, and probably from a general market point of view sounds like good news coming out of Europe. They even work till late at night, lol!

About announcements, well you may recall I did predict a couple of announcements out this week. None has materialised, thus I presume there will be only 1 unless they want to be swamped putting out the quarterly on Monday. And since the announcements I anticipated are market sensitive and certainly worth being put out on their own separate days I presume the information and news about those 2 announcements is still not finished.

Those outstanding announcements, which clearly won't be put out this week are:
1. Wet commissioning commencing at Siana. I assume they are still testing out individual circuits such as power station (naturally), crusher, SAG mill (needs the experts back onsite). Once these look good then they will ramp up to a wet commissioning with the sludge at the base of the pit plus low grade ore, according to past reports. This might still be a week away or thereabouts.
2. The reserve upgrade and revised mining/processing schedule. This will give us an indication of gold production in the coming  months, etc, but noting they have mentioned a slot has been devised to be first ROM grade ore through the plant after the low grade commissioning. That means they will probably be in a 2 phase mining operation, taking out the slot of ore to carry the project along, and a cutback soon thereafter to take back pit limits to reserve outlines, depending if they go for an entire 0.9 g/t cutoff grade in the  cutback or if they have a preliminary cutback to accomodate mining capacity.

Whatever, RED is about ready to rock and roll!!! 

Anyone who wants to dump their stock, particularly from a trading point of view with an aim to get a lower price, does so with a risk of losing out at this penultimate stage! IMO of course!!!


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## LostMyShirt (27 October 2011)

The ASX jumps 100 points and we jump a half cent. The ASX tanks 50 points and we go down like 2-3 cents.

The main investors in thie company are giving me nightmares....


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## Moit (27 October 2011)

Hi Beatle, sorry i completely forgot about the quarterly. I hope they don't put out all these Ann's in one big bag. Thats something we don't want. We want to be able to benefit of each one.

And Shirtless, lol, we went up 1c buddy.

Cheers Moit.


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## LostMyShirt (27 October 2011)

Moit said:


> Hi Beatle, sorry i completely forgot about the quarterly. I hope they don't put out all these Ann's in one big bag. Thats something we don't want. We want to be able to benefit of each one.
> 
> And Shirtless, lol, we went up 1c buddy.
> 
> Cheers Moit.




Yeah I know I'm exagurating.... Lol


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## theartglasshouse (27 October 2011)

I'm out and moving the cash eslewhere...small profit taken. Good luck with the consilidation of the shares everyone and hope you prosper out of it


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## karky003 (27 October 2011)

Hi All 

Thanks to everyone for sharing their opinions/views on Red in particular Beetle. While I don't necessarily share or agree with all comments/opinions it does make interesting debate and good reading. 

In regard to Matthews selling, the Oct 4 announcement stated that Matthews current holding (at Oct 4) was 6.6 % or 84,722,499 shares. This would suggest an offloading of 19,559,380 shares since Aug 31 (Notice). Since the volumes have been quite low of late I would think Matthews still have a good 65-75m shares on hand. I anticipate an updated holding % on the quarterly due any time now. 

And as mentioned above, even though there is heavy selling pressure the price has held at .18, well for now, hopefully the few anticipated announcements give it a bit of a boost in the next week or so. Well the European markets are up 4% and gold broke through resistance at $1,700. (This time last week Gold was testing resistance at $1,600)

Good luck to all holders and and may we see a new high soon.


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## Starcraftmazter (27 October 2011)

Nasser said:


> Maybe Mathews did try to flog their original parcel of 227m shares but had no takers at their price. The notice Mathews lodged on 31st Aug showed that they still had 104m shares on hand. Since then the turnover of shares in RED has been approx 200m, so IF Mathews is selling then the selling should be cleared before the first pour. IMO of course




But why would anyone be that stupid 



Today was a hell of a crazy day, I waited and waited but the market didn't open, then went to have lunch only to have several conditional orders execute in my absence :

Then for the rest of the day, Bell Direct was not propertly showing all the order positions for stocks, so I was rather blind in my orders, but nevertheless no losses nor missed opportunities today - I consider myself quite lucky.

Damn ASX.

Today's rally was a foregone conclusion. We'll see what the market really thinks of Europe's plan tomorrow.

Quarterly report is tomorrow as well.

Gold has tested support at $1700 twice in the last 24 hours, but refused to go down. If there's a time to be optimistic, now might be it.


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## beatle (28 October 2011)

Hi All, great to see new posters appearing on the read thread, welcome Karky003 and thanks for the comments and observations. And yes lets hope that RED continues to inform us of substantial shareholdings, its a good point you make re the latest holdings on the bottom of each announcement. Let's hope they keep up the practice!

And wow, how have things changed from a broader perspective in the past day or so! All of a sudden we have Europe feeling all lovey dovey, with a seemingly positive outcome planned that could also assist in gold being re-rated in the process as a safer less risky haven. And the US all of a sudden displaying signs of increased economic growth prospects of its own, and a seemingly more likely need to print more money in the medium term. 

All these factors point to positive factors in general sharetrading, and moves back into gold, and surely back into gold equities. The only reason I am pointing this out, as I tend to spend more commentary on RED's own situation, is that MAYBE Matthews selling might abate with this change in risk factors changing their investment/divestment strategy. But of course, as Fwpike quite rightly points out though, everyone has their own reason to sell a share, whilst there is a common reason to buy a share! So maybe the divestment strategy will remain intact for Matthews, if it doesn't then if that selling dries up who knows what it could do to RED share price.

At the open RED of course is likely to be bought up in line with the euphoria of the markets and the gold price, but the test to see if Matthews has all of a sudden stopped the selling may well be to see how RED fares towards the end of trading today. If it retraces from its high of today, then maybe Matthews is still selling and maintaining his sell down strategy, if RED stays closer to its highs hopefully its a sign of a change of that strategy.

We still await some news, probably today for the quarterly, and the one thing I am convinced about, is that we are now getting very close to some real progress towards commissioning and that first bar of gold, the first of many bars of gold!

With regard to the gold price, unfortunately the Aussie has also increased appreciably in the past few days, so in real terms for RED the latest gold price move is somewhat reduced, but strangely a lot of gold equity traders and investors don't seem to notice that point when they buy shares!

Ok RED, now its up to you ...


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## Moit (28 October 2011)

Hi all RED club members.

Beatle a good point you make, RE, if we finish close to todays high, maybe Mathews will change their strategy. Maybe yesterdays close is a good sign of a break-out from that 18 to 18.5 cent level. If however we do finish on a higher note than yesterdays close, maybe that will in-turn give us a good run up for the start of November.

As for the quarterly. I'm under the impression that it wont be out until Monday the 31st. If it does come out today, they certainly haven't giving us shareholders/traders much time to digest the announcement before open.

Either way great news coming out of Europe and a good lead from the U.S. Gold up despite Aussie dollar. Should make for an interesting day.

Good luck to all holders. Cheers Moit.


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## beatle (28 October 2011)

Hi Moit, actually I'm a bit surprised (and disappointed) with the RED open, seems like no one wants to test whether Matthews is going to change the strategy. Although its up 0.5 cents, I think we can thank the BOTS for that rise rather than someone with a human brain!

I would be surprised if RED left the announcement to Monday as it then competes with a whole raft of quarterlies, and historically RED has reported before that date. Maybe because the Chairman and MD have been overseas until early this week they have been late in preparing the Quarterly.


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## Moit (28 October 2011)

Yeah your not the only one disappointed Beatle. These are the type of shenanigans i was referring to a couple of days back. By the look of it the bots are working a couple of trades every 5 mins or so. I realize people can sell what they want, when they want. Its just these guys have impeccable timing. What a waste of a potentially great day. Its certainly going to be a long one.


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## Chasero (28 October 2011)

A lot of trading is actually done by computers nowadays.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's just some supercomputer from a random investment bank doing these trades.


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## beatle (28 October 2011)

Moit said:


> Hi all RED club members.
> 
> Beatle a good point you make, RE, if we finish close to todays high, maybe Mathews will change their strategy. Maybe yesterdays close is a good sign of a break-out from that 18 to 18.5 cent level. If however we do finish on a higher note than yesterdays close, maybe that will in-turn give us a good run up for the start of November.
> 
> Good luck to all holders. Cheers Moit.




Moit, I think at exactly 11.13.36am EST we got our answer whether Matthews has changed his strategy!

Doesn't matter, he is a million shares less threatening now, lol (I assume its Matthews, of course it might not be!).


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## Moit (28 October 2011)

Yeah Beatle it certainly was a major dumping. I was going to ad it up. But was rather annoyed. He has definitely got us by the kahunas at the moment. 

Beatle you don't want to lash out on a couple of million shares to help us out, and get us back there, lol.


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## beatle (28 October 2011)

Moit said:


> Yeah Beatle it certainly was a major dumping. I was going to ad it up. But was rather annoyed. He has definitely got us by the kahunas at the moment.
> 
> Beatle you don't want to lash out on a couple of million shares to help us out, and get us back there, lol.




Well lets wait to see how far and how desperate he is to take this down! When he was dumping down to 16 cents last time, and I wasn't sure that he was the one responsible at that time but it was clear someone was dumping then, I got quite a few at 16.5 cents. Who knows what his situation is, it probably caused by events completely out of RED's control. 

But what I really can't work out, is why he doesn't just simply talk to RED about finding a home for his position! Absolutely crazy IMO


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## Chasero (28 October 2011)

Yep RED is being dumped on.

Gold price rising and RED s/p falling.

Looks like 18.5c is the number he is willing to sell, and we just have to wait till he gets rid of his holdings.

NVM, looks like another flat day for RED.


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## LostMyShirt (28 October 2011)

Flat Day?

Because Matthew is dumping, he is hindering the rise of the SP so close to November! Another reason why I believe any chance of getting fair value at pour is a pipe dream at best.

ASX up, RED down. ASX Down, Red Down. It is a lose/lose situation here for this stock and I am kicking myself that I did not exit at 24cps.

The frustration is building to peak levels.


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## Chasero (28 October 2011)

I can't help but think RED is going to delay news of the gold pour as late as possible to the AGM so shares get a nice little boost when it's time to vote for their remuneration.



I doubt companies do this, but who knows!


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## Moit (28 October 2011)

Once again 2 shares the difference, dragging REDS sp back wards. Unbelievable.


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## nomore4s (29 October 2011)

A few on here need to relax a little bit imo and let the market sort out the value of RED. Watching and moaning about each 0.5c move or algo bots trading a handful of shares at a time is a waste of energy and pretty pointless.

For all RED's promise, it is still just that promise atm. Until we start seeing earnings from gold production I very much doubt we will see RED re-rated too much past 25c. I personally don't think an announcement of the first gold pour will have an major effect on the sp because it is well known to the market. The overall market conditions also need to be taken into account - the market is in a phase where risk is priced into share prices at a higher ratio and whether holders of RED like it or not while RED has no or limited earnings the market will price more risk into it's sp.

Earnings is now the thing that will start to truly move the sp with gusto. How long before we see earnings? I have no idea but if you are in for the long term and the company can actually deliver we will eventually see the sp rise, but of course if the company fails to deliver we will also see the sp drop accordingly.


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## tech/a (29 October 2011)

Can't believe people trade this way.

Can't believe people hang on every post and react the way they do!
Trading isnt hard people

RED 
Ain't going anywhere soon.
That took all of 3 minutes analysis.
When it does move you'll all see it as clear as day with plenty of Time to profit from it.

No reason to think that's anytime soon


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## fwpike (31 October 2011)

I can't see Red above 24.5c for a long time. We have shareholders with millions and millions of shares issued to them at 17c who would see a 50% profit at that price.  The pity of it all is that much of the money raised is just sitting there paying for remuneration increases etc but not working. That IMHO will prove to have been be a very expensive capital raising. 
Red share price will increase, or at least shareholders will share the bounty, when we shareholders demand dividends from the income stream that is about to begin. Otherwise I see Mapawa eating capital for years to come with the share price languishing.


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## beatle (31 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> Can't believe people trade this way.
> 
> Can't believe people hang on every post and react the way they do!
> Trading isnt hard people
> ...




Well your 3 minutes of analysis Tech/a compares with my 40 odd years of being in the stock market, and I suggest to you that shares actually do tend to increase in the expectation of some event happening, even ahead of time, believe it or not! (Lol).

If you look at history you will see time and again that a company going into production of whatever mineral resource will move up in expectation of it producing, notwithstanding the risk that the project will not deliver. Of course it won't jump to some considerable level seen by the market as its intrinsic value overnight, it will move towards that level, some of that ahead of production, in anticipation. 

RED has already moved somewhat with anticipation, but its had a few hiccups along the way, and at the moment is treading water despite an expectation of various newsworthy items due any day! Thus its yet to move appreciably in line with its fundamentals based on current gold price. 

And yes, RED will at some point in the future, provided it meets its forecast gold production, revenue and costs, should move above that fundamental value (ie at a premium), of course that time won't happen until its clear that all is well and the project is a successful operation.

Fwpike, I agree that it would be good to have an early small dividend after it has begun to build up a significant cash reserve! That will take time though, its like counting the chickens before they hatch! I hope that RED does undertake a careful analysis of Mapawa, plus a number of other potential mega gold porphyry prospects within the MPSA's at both Siana and Mapawa. Its only once they start getting some real positive intersections (and in gold production) that RED will begin to move appreciably above fundamental value.


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## mr. jeff (31 October 2011)

Quarterly released, looks like there is some good news on progress and expenditure...some comment on exploration as well and getting close to running the mill. 
Have a read. 

And a good day.


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## beatle (31 October 2011)

Thanks MrJeff, yes the quarterly confirms that everything remains on track for wet commissioning and first gold pour (with ramp up thereafter in the coming weeks). There are no surprises occurring since the last update. Its positive that:

1. Pit has now been dewatered to the extent necessary, the balance to be used in the commissioning process;
2. Mine material movement is ahead of budget, which is positive for future mine production. Drill/blast has commenced, that is another confirmation that the mining procedure is working;
3. Capex costs are as previously forecast, and yet the project is bolstered by the additional safety (as in risk mitigation) measures such as including double pit ramp, onsite power, new and larger SAG mill.

Matthews has dropped another 0.5% of his stock (ie around 6.4 million shares) in the past few weeks since October 4. He remains the outstanding issue IMO!!! I wish RED would approach him to discuss his situation and possibly facilitate some behind the scenes share transaction if he wants to get out.


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## Chasero (31 October 2011)

14 billion litres discharged from the pit.

That's a very big hole in the ground!! Anyways, good to see the project is 96% complete. Upcoming gold pour! Not so much a 'speculation' company after a few months of gold coming in  We shall see


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## tech/a (31 October 2011)

> Well your 3 minutes of analysis Tech/a compares with my 40 odd years of being in the stock market




Well 20 yrs of Trading has given me the experience to read a companies chart in minutes.
RED's trading today reflects the ho hum response to todays announcements.
Volume is rubbish.

Currently trading 5 c from its recient and historic high.
This resistance is not being challenged.
Until it is rehetoric and speculation wont help your or anyones position in the company.

On the flip side if you know how to trade these little speccies.
(It has traded from 5C to 24C) there is good $$s to be made.
You need to know when --- speculation as to value---isnt the best indicator---in my opinion as its only your/or someone elses opinion. Have a look at the PEN thread and see how massive profit was turned into spectacular losses. But hey if your happy then ----

Im just amazed at the amount of speculation and back slapping that goes on in these fundamental threads prior to and after announcements. It seems like a fellowship of cleverness in speculation.


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## LostMyShirt (31 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> Well 20 yrs of Trading has given me the experience to read a companies chart in minutes.
> RED's trading today reflects the ho hum response to todays announcements.
> Volume is rubbish.
> 
> ...




We are the fellowship of the RED. Evil times are approaching.


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## beatle (31 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> Well 20 yrs of Trading has given me the experience to read a companies chart in minutes.
> RED's trading today reflects the ho hum response to todays announcements.
> Volume is rubbish.
> 
> ...




I read your last post a few times trying to work out what your point is but not completely sure, other than that you are apparently a good chartist -I am the first to admit, and I have said this on a number of occasions in the past, that I have NO IDEA how to interpret a chart other than general trends.

As to a fundamental view, I do have 40 plus years experience as both a share investor plus work in the mining industry. And yet it still takes me more than a few minutes to form a view on whether a project and a company will make money. Maybe I'm a slow learner, lol!

BUT I can assure you I have spent many years scrutinising RED and its Siana gold project, it is no more a speculation than other gold producing operations are (ie still subject to the same risks as other gold producers, plus the start up risk that might relate more to the possibility of delays). It has gone through a full and comprehensive bankable feasibility study, with rigorous assessment by industry competent consultants, it WILL produce gold in the short term, and it will deliver very good profits subject to those risks I suggest above.

I don't understand what the relationship is with PEN, that company I understand is still going through its DFS and is focused on uranium. What's your point about this, I don't see the commonality? 

But one thing I agree on, we are a strong RED club that I am proud to be a member of and am happy to post for the benefit of all. AND differences of opinion are welcome, it adds to the discussion and might even allow us all to consider things from a different perspective. Believe it or not I have an open mind! So don't assume that we all are saying RED has done everything right or whatever, amongst us we do have our gripes at times, I certainly do!


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## geezuguys (31 October 2011)

A new Petra Capital research report is on Red 5 site - worth a look.

Petra's view on today's quarterly confirms a couple of things:  1.  Sound fundamentals continue to underpin the future prospects of Red 5.  2.  With project close to finality it is derisking by the day.  3.  Progress on track with first gold pour imminent.  4.  Petra's states with regard the pending review of mine plan and cut-off grades, that the company's objective is to keep prodcution cost below $400 /oz.  5.  They believe valuation remains at NPV of 0.37 Cents.

My view is it's a screaming BUY!  I don't know whether it will have a re-rating this week, next or the month after that - but at some stage (possibly sooner rather than later) word will get out!  

Mind you (speaking of getting word out), if there is one massive lacking of management, particularly in the build up to mine commencement - it's their seeming lack of commitment to fully embrace the Australian investment community (ie. all brokers, funds managers etc) with information and promotion about the imminent commencement of the NEXT listed Australian gold miner to commence production.  I know GE is up to his armpits, but they do have the cash resources to allocate to the proliferation of the Red5story in the market place.  To date, poor show guys! 

Lots of attention has been payed to smattering North American and London based F/Mgrs with info and presentations though.  What about Australian brokerages houses?  You could count on one hand the number local brokers giving Red regular coverage.  

Management has even decided to progress with a share consolidation (at 10 to 1!) so that the northern hemisphere brigade will (hopefully) stop viewing Red as a penny dreadful.  That's at least 6 to 12 months early in my view.  The inevitable market re-rating alone should have been allowed to keep a consolidation at 5 to 1 and hence maintain more liquidity in the share (i.e. 250 million shares instead of 125 million). Liquidity of the stock is the big issue here!  With 60% of the shares held by only 20 participants, Matthews aside, for arguments sake let's assume that the other 19 want to hold for the long term, that means only 40m to 50m shares are potentially tradeable.  This is not a good move.  I feel management has been given bad advice here.  

It also means that holders with substantial quantities find it harder to adjust their portfolios (i.e. sell down some or buy some more) in any significant $ quantities due to the challenges of low liquidity.  This could also account for why some seem to have decided to lighten their load now rather than be caught in a low liquidity stock in 4 weeks time.  I'm in for the long haul so personally I'm not that concerned - but I just though the thread my be interested in this line of thought.

On the flip side, scarcity of a sought after commodity also translates into higher prices, so when the North Americans decide to buy-in, hopefully they'll pay through the nose!

Let's hope Red management also decides as some stage soon that the Australian broking and funds management community deserve to be bombarded with the Red5 story before the rest of the world has driven the price to dizzy heights (lol).


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## beatle (1 November 2011)

Geezuguys, some great points made and thanks for the comments about Petra, I hadn't noticed it and at least the valuation is getting within a bulls roar of what I think it can get to without the consolidation. I'm not sure if they will manage to achieve an operating cost of less than US$400/oz to get anything like the increase in gold inventory in reserves that should be considered appropriate with a gold price around $1,500 per ounce or above, but we are yet to hear that result.

I agree entirely with you regarding reasonably poor Australian PR, and lack of promotion of the company within the Australian broking fraternity. Certainly they do have some supported already there, including Wilsons, Evans, BellDirect, that I am aware of, but the broader industry seems to have been forgotten. And certainly RED should be putting more oomph into its team to beef that up if GE is to remain MD based in Philippines (but by the same account it brings me back to having to pay more people to cover the same bases due to having the MD based in Philippines!).

The consolidation is an interesting topic, I am wondering how much support RED has been provided by the insto's who are currently in the stock. And yes you make a good point in suggesting perhaps a 1 for 5 consolidation would give more liquidity for trading volumes. Actually RED has been sprouting 31 insto's, not 20, so clearly they have already got a lot of insto support, ie a relatively high shareholding held by so few. I would have thought RED would feel less comfortable with some many larger shareholders on its books, giving it less control in the event of a mutiny, for whatever reason!

I'm still waiting for the re-rating, but at some point we will all be wondering why we didn't buy more! IMO of course.


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## fatsoh (1 November 2011)

hi geezuguys

i found your post a good read and have also posted it elsewhere

hope you have no objections


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## tech/a (1 November 2011)

> I don't understand what the relationship is with PEN, that company I understand is still going through its DFS and is focused on uranium. What's your point about this, I don't see the commonality?




Nothing to do with the two companies and everything to dowith the same "type" of fanatical following by those with a vested interest.
In PEN'S case a few went from riches to rags kicking and screaming all the way.
It was and still is un thinkable that their pet could possibly drop 400%
Not only that but they rode it all the way to the bottom " averaging down" all the way!

The comparison is limited to the above without the 400 % crash but certainly with the same dissection of every announcement and in depth discussion/speculation.

But  RED IS different isn it!


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## beatle (1 November 2011)

Thanks for the clarification Tech/a, i guess the commonality you refer to is the apparent love affair that I have with RED, that some others may have had with PEN. 

The fact that I can actually put a fundamental value based on NPV cash flow valuation for RED's Siana gold project is why I continue to support RED and consider it being hugely discounted at present (by around 50% to that NPV estimate). Clearly that could never have been done for PEN which doesn't have an ore reserve even to this day!

Since completing its bankable feasibility study RED has now raised all the cash it has required, it is now around 95% completed with its process plant, completed dewatering the old pit, is forging ahead with drill/blast within the pit, and about to undertake commissioning of the plant, plus has around $16 million in reserves and another undrawn credit line of $8.0 million. And by the company's own statement yesterday its on the verge of pouring first gold! So if you can't see why I hold the view that RED remains an outstanding buy in the market place, then I suggest you should look elsewhere for a bargain. Maybe the industrial sector is more for you.

Good luck RED holders.


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## beatle (2 November 2011)

It looks like we have a stalemate at the moment. This is about the lightest trading after an hour that I can recall for some time! Seems like everyone is waiting for some news about commissioning, but since we have just had the quarterly maybe we won't see an announcement for a week or so re update status. I might go have a midday nap...


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## LostMyShirt (2 November 2011)

Beatle; I did want to make a post asking as to why the trading is so very light as of late. When I mean "as of late" I mean over the last few weeks. One must admit these volumes are below the average experienced early last month, and late the month before (by memory, no chart).

The only volumes noticable is Matthew's dumping his position.

My theory is, and it is a LONG shot, is that investor interest has peaked and there are several holders with the selling trickling into minor interest. I don't know, lol. My theories are always wrong when trying to deduce the investor mentality pertaining to a specific stock.

At any rate - I just want to mention again; if you are waiting for the pour to get your value, you will be waiting a sufficiently long time after that to get over 24 cents. I wish I could be wrong about that one too - but unfortunately that is the same song being sung by pessimistic investors across all forums that I've viewed.

For many of us who have been in RED for the short term; the fundamentals are sound enough to warrent a mid to long term hold. All I am trying to reitterate is that the resistence level will not be challenged for quite a while - it barely broke the short term 21cent resistence with very minor spikes into a false breakout.


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## tech/a (2 November 2011)

> then I suggest you should look elsewhere for a bargain




We all have a definition of a Bargain.

Mine different to most.
Its simply an instrument which has momentum either building in anticipation of a move in my direction or moving in my direction now.
My *"anticipation"* window unlike yours is at most a week at least can be a few minutes.

Luck *never* comes into it.
It either moves (I hop on ) or it doesnt (I hop off).

Life in my view is far too short to waste waiting in _*anticipation*_---for too long!


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## Moit (2 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Can't believe people trade this way.
> 
> Can't believe people hang on every post and react the way they do!
> Trading isn't hard people
> ...




Hi all RED club members, Hi tech/a. I kind of figured this was in-tendered for me. Maybe I'm wrong... But one thing i can assure you is i don't trade this way and don't hang on to every post. What gets me is when instos decide to dump, at a particularly important time for RED, potentially holding it back from where it could be. Yes again, people have the right to buy and sell what they like, when they like, it just irritates me of the timing, when we originally thought Mathews was in this for the long term, not a 1 cent gain.

Us here on the RED thread are deeply passionate about this particular company because it has so much going for it. Beatle summed it up fairly well. I know for a fact that there are people that have spent much of there life savings on RED, (me included) why, because we believe in the company and what it is about to achieve. POURING GOLD !! The yanks print money, where going to make it. ( BULLIONS OF IT. )

Its a bit like buying a house, owning your own business or investing in a stock or two that you truly believe in. If you weren't optimistic or passionate about the idea, you wouldn't bother. 

So as for you mate, seriously, why are you bothering to post on RED. Obviously you hold yet have nothing, not ONE thing positive to say about this stock. It seems to me in all of your 20 years trading, that you would be some-what of an expert by now. So why would you bother posting on a forum, in a stock that you broadly announce is going nowhere soon. Do us and everyone here a favor and HOP-OFF as you like to say. 

Geez mate, your so depressing !!!

Moit


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## tech/a (2 November 2011)

Don't hold any.
Technically I don't see a buy.
There have been good signals again technically back at around 5 c.
Those who have held from there have done well.

But when I see comments like your re the bulk sale of a holder being Ill
Timed and holding back RED

I have to laugh.
You can't see that the holder thinks it's a great time to sell.
If he didn't he'd be holding.

Why post here.
In the hope that perhaps a few who are not blinded by one sided spin take a minute to reflect on how they are going to minimize risk.
How those already heavy in profit intend to maximize that profit.

Seeing you have been so keen to see the end of me I'm bound to stick around.

Oh
Why hasn't RED taken off after these great announcements that everyone were so keen to see?


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## Moit (2 November 2011)

You dont even hold, that will do me. You must be really bored mate. Move on...


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## Chasero (2 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Oh
> Why hasn't RED taken off after these great announcements that everyone were so keen to see?




Because it's still a speculative investment. There hasn't been the November gold pour announcement.

And the only big announcement is when they start generating a profit (with low cost).

That's the announcement we're waiting for. If they post a profit and start 'gold miner' status, and their share price moves backwards, then I would start to worry.

As a chartist, I don't see the red share price as 'going nowhere' either.(and has been up since June) It was hit especially hard with 2 news: huge drop in gold price from it's highs late Sept and news of consolidation mid October.

Plus I welcome tech/a's views. A thread where investors might see is news and boasting may lead to emotional investing.


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## beatle (2 November 2011)

Thanks for your latest post Tech/a, at least I know your not in RED at the moment so get the context of your posts. Do you have an interest in considering trading/investing/speculating/punting in RED at some time in the future? If so what would cause you to make that decision?

There certainly seemed to be a drop in trading interest today LostHisShirt & seems to me Matthews may have stopped selling in the past couple of days. But as for the past few weeks someone perhaps has quantitative info to comment, I don't have but feel it's dropped maybe the past 2 weeks. My own thought is that selling is drying up in anticipation of news from site about status, but the consolidation news may have also confused a few traders/investors.


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## Chasero (2 November 2011)

beatle said:


> Thanks for your latest post Tech/a, at least I know your not in RED at the moment so get the context of your posts. Do you have an interest in considering trading/investing/speculating/punting in RED at some time in the future? If so what would cause you to make that decision?
> 
> There certainly seemed to be a drop in trading interest today LostHisShirt & seems to me Matthews may have stopped selling in the past couple of days. But as for the past few weeks someone perhaps has quantitative info to comment, I don't have but feel it's dropped maybe the past 2 weeks. My own thought is that selling is drying up in anticipation of news from site about status, but the consolidation news may have also confused a few traders/investors.




Because history shows that most times, consolidation leads to price falls? *shrugs*

That's what they say on the Hotcopper thread.

This is my first time actually I've held a share that consolidated, so all news to me.


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## mr. jeff (2 November 2011)

Agree that it is weak and worrying technically, there is no doubt that if I was trawling for long trades I would immediately skip past this.

I mainly trade goldies and as such would expect that RED had moved on more than it has done. I agree with all contributors that it has great prospects and is valued lower than most, not all. 
It may well get going and it may well be macro economics etc. but the beauty of technical analysis is that it gives you information that you cannot get any other way. That information is that RED is not currently being bought by the big players, they are looking at the larger gold miners and presumably staying out of small caps.

This discussion is more pleasant than some have been that I have seen here and is the only reason why I would bother voicing an opinion, so there you have it, remember that the only gambling that should be taking place was for the Melbourne Cup.


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## beatle (3 November 2011)

A question for the chartists out there. If the consolidation does go through, and thus the price is completely out of context with the past, does the past trading history (at 10 times the price of course) have any impact on future trading forecasts for your own interpretations?

I forgot to say LostHisShirt previously, yes you might be correct that it could go to 24 cents (or perhaps $2.40 in consolidated) and cop a lot of resistance. But my view is that it then all relates to the success or other, of the production thereafter. If it happens to meet or get close to forecast production, revenue, costs then that resistance level will only be an issue for chartists, it will be blown out of the water knowing it would be trading on a P/E of around 2.5. That for a 10 year mine life, minimum, just simply won't last, it will move far higher once that steady state production is confirmed.

MrJeff, to be honest I rarely look at threads other than RED on ASF, so I take it that you consider us RED posters (of which you are one too of course) are reasonable people after all, lol!

Today MUST be an up day for RED, if its not I will be calling out Matthews name with a few other descriptives that i won't utter here! And yes Tech/a, you are quite right, Matthews might want to sell cos he knows something (such as where the gold price is going, or what the markets are going to do) - so he must be a smart man. I'm the first to agree that I don't know what the gold price is going to do, I don't know what the markets are going to do! I do believe that Siana will perform well though.


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## wtang89 (3 November 2011)

You called it beatle! We are out of the 18.5c-19 cent range that has been with us for the last week or so. 19c sellers were all taken out and replaced with 1m of bidders in the opening minutes of trading today. Maybe its time for RED to have another crack at 20c+. Gold have been up by around $100/ounce or so and is hovering in the 1720-1750range (which is always welcome)

Personally, I do not see the consolidation as an issue (dont see it as changing the fundamental value of a stock), the only thing that can shut RED down going forward is if they significantly miss forecast level.


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## fatsoh (3 November 2011)

hi tech/a

"I have to laugh.
You can't see that the holder thinks it's a great time to sell.
If he didn't he'd be holding"

had to have a little laugh myself

all sounds so simple that some are led to believe that it is a straight forward sell down by an entity - if you look closer you will see the connections between mathews, merrills and boac - pass the parcel and whatever other games these entities have been playing have ensured nothing nearing correct value for red - have a look into the past and you will find some single transfers of shares in the order of tens of millions

on top of that, according to the latest sub holder notices, baker steel increased their holdings and are now the biggest single sub holder

what does this mean and what direction on red's sp - lol - ask them


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## fwpike (3 November 2011)

I am stunned that any effort would be made to impede "opposing views" on this site.."Group Think" is a very dangerous thing.  I find that I learn most from those who disagree with me.  
"Defenders of the Faith" have no place in investment thinking surely. 

Cheers FW (Bill) Pike

"I do not agree with a word you say but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
Attributed Someone, Can't recall whom.


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## Chasero (3 November 2011)

fwpike said:


> I am stunned that any effort would be made to impede "opposing views" on this site..




What do you mean? Isn't that what's so great about forums? You have people who think investments are great and others who think they are junk. It's always great to have different views.

Plus, when someone says "Oh. Why hasn't RED taken off after these great announcements that everyone were so keen to see?"

What announcements are they referring to?  Just makes it seem like the poster knows nothing about the company and has assumed many things. Because everyone knows that the ONLY announcement anyone wants in a speculative company is when it STOPS being speculative.


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## achernar (3 November 2011)

wtang89 said:


> You called it beatle! We are out of the 18.5c-19 cent range that has been with us for the last week or so. 19c sellers were all taken out and replaced with 1m of bidders in the opening minutes of trading today. Maybe its time for RED to have another crack at 20c+. Gold have been up by around $100/ounce or so and is hovering in the 1720-1750range (which is always welcome)




Another 1m of bidders at 0.19. Ohh snap!!

Just to amuse myself, I bought from 0.185 and sold at 0.19. At the end of the day, who doesn't want to eat free pizza for a week?


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## beatle (3 November 2011)

achernar said:


> Another 1m of bidders at 0.19. Ohh snap!!
> 
> Just to amuse myself, I bought from 0.185 and sold at 0.19. At the end of the day, who doesn't want to eat free pizza for a week?




But I'm not after pizza, I'm after (black) caviar, lol (sorry I couldn't help myself!).

Seems like its still stuck in the range Wtang89, its good to see you keeping an eye on things though. It seems our great mate will control its price direction for a while to come. But in reflection Matthews has been a very positive influence on RED for a long time, and so I guess its unfair me rubbishing his exit now - and of course Tech/a is correct in pointing out that anyone has a right to sell out. Once things have worked their way out this will be just another bend in the road to where RED is going.


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## beatle (4 November 2011)

Whilst actual trading in RED isn't particularly roaring at the moment clearly the bid/offer at 19.0/19.5 cents is being staked out quite vigorously. This certainly is a change from recent sessions, particularly on the bid side. Seems like a buyer(s?) is taking a stand against any significant selldown to lower prices. Of course this comes on a day when the gold price is up, perhaps it means that the buyer (s?) have come out to play with a view to get a strategic (or add to a strategic) holding in RED in anticipation of the developments onsite, and soon to produce gold.


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## snsdmonkey (4 November 2011)

And all 19.5c sell orders have been covered. Is this the break?


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## Chasero (4 November 2011)

Nice day today 

Proves the people who say it's 'going nowhere' wrong at least


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## tech/a (4 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Nice day today
> 
> Proves the people who say it's 'going nowhere' wrong at least




Hows it prove that? Its still nowhere!!

*CLICK TO EXPAND*


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## beatle (4 November 2011)

Fwpike, your comment "I am stunned that any effort would be made to impede "opposing views" on this site.."Group Think" is a very dangerous thing. I find that I learn most from those who disagree with me. " I have no problems with. 

BUT I suggest you consider our mate Tech/a who suggests..."Hows it prove that? Its still nowhere!!" which fails to accept that RED is UP more than 8% today at 20.0 cents, touching 20.5 cents, on a substantial volume. 

For my money Tech/a does not want to accept that RED is going somewhere, and that somewhere is UP!!!

Whatever, this positive day might indicate that some positive announcement is around the corner, hopefully re the commissioning commencing or similar.

And Fwpike, I'm sure you're also happy with that if you haven't sold your shares! I'm HAPPY with it!


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## snsdmonkey (4 November 2011)

Not sure if something is happening to be honest. RED's rise in SP could just a result of general market bullishness today as well as the rise in price of gold; not a result of impeding announcements.


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## tech/a (4 November 2011)

> Whatever, this positive day might indicate




DOW +4% thats what it indicates!!

Your a cup half full kinda guy.
For me there is nothing on the chart which screams buy at this point.
Maybe oneday but not now and not for me.


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## Chasero (4 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Hows it prove that? Its still nowhere!!
> 
> *CLICK TO EXPAND*
> 
> View attachment 45073




tech/a, what do you see as going somewhere then?

+5% on high volumes over a few days? Yes, I may have posted a bit soon, needs to break 21c


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## beatle (4 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> DOW +4% thats what it indicates!!
> 
> Your a cup half full kinda guy.
> For me there is nothing on the chart which screams buy at this point.
> Maybe oneday but not now and not for me.




Tech/a, my cup is not half full, its full to the brim (with champagne, lol). I couldn't help myself!

Yes it might be that the general market is up, and actually RED is a slightly cheaper price overseas to US investors due to a slight falling away of the ozzie dollar. But IMO the trading prior to breaking through 19.5 cents was clearly different to what it has been lately - it might be that Matthews is reducing the velocity of his exit!


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## tech/a (4 November 2011)

beatle said:


> Tech/a, my cup is not half full, its full to the brim (with champagne, lol). I couldn't help myself!
> 
> Yes it might be that the general market is up, and actually RED is a slightly cheaper price overseas to US investors due to a slight falling away of the ozzie dollar. But IMO the trading prior to breaking through 19.5 cents was clearly different to what it has been lately - it might be that Matthews is reducing the velocity of his exit!




See this is where the vast difference in trading styles are.
I have no idea who is buying and selling ---Dont care. I dont guess or speculate I anticipate. but for me to anticipate i need to clearly see a change of momentum.

Cant see that.
A change well maybe maybe not which brings me to---



Chasero said:


> tech/a, what do you see as going somewhere then?
> 
> +5% on high volumes over a few days? Yes, I may have posted a bit soon, needs to break 21c




A break of 21.5c for a start.
Id prefer to see the break as decisive and well above average volume and following through to do the same at 24c
Then youd have my attention.
Till then this is stuck 18c to 24c.
Sure you can make great $$s at 18c buy sell 24c if it does that.
Lets see how it reacts at these resistance levels.

Would want to see gold continuing up as well because if it comes off so will this!


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## Chasero (4 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> A break of 21.5c for a start.
> Id prefer to see the break as decisive and well above average volume and following through to do the same at 24c
> Then youd have my attention.
> Till then this is stuck 18c to 24c.
> ...




Agreed. 

Might be a week or so till (if) we break 21.5c


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## Moit (4 November 2011)

Hi all TRUE RED club members...

It was a good day today, 8% rise on great volume. Maybe the seller has backed off a bit. Yes market sentiment and gold price was stronger, but you could see the flurry that was happening with RED. The sales activity is starting to expand, ie, at 1 stage near 17 million to buy, against 9 million to sell. It has been on an even par for a couple of weeks. 

This is exactly what i was referring to, RE, the dumper holding RED back from its potential. I can feel RED starting to breath a little more easier. Maybe this is the start of a re-rating. Maybe there is something around the corner. Only a few weeks away guys.

And tech/a, I'm a little confused again with your 20 years trading experience. How do you figure, you sound 15 !!! Your negativity and arrogance is really starting to shine, and you seem to be stepping on quite a few toes other than mine at the moment. Why do you have to cat fight with every comment ??


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## tech/a (4 November 2011)

15 hell I wish!

Enjoying the discussion.
Particularly your comments.


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## tremmas (4 November 2011)

Moit said:


> And tech/a, I'm a little confused again with your 20 years trading experience. How do you figure, you sound 15 !!! Your negativity and arrogance is really starting to shine, and you seem to be stepping on quite a few toes other than mine at the moment. Why do you have to cat fight with every comment ??




I don't understand why you're jumping all over tech.

He's pointed out that he doesn't see opportunity for his trading style, acknowledging that he trades short term and only when there is already momentum. From the wealth of info he's posted on this site it's clear to me the type of trading that he is successful at and I recognise that he knows what he's talking about.

He's just keeping the thread honest. A new opinion is refreshing.

On a more relevant note, nice little move today (albeit on an up day), but agree that we need a big push through the levels already mentioned before we get too excited.


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## Moit (4 November 2011)

Good point tremmas, i just don't see why he has to continue rubbishing a stock he doesn't even hold... if it were me, i wouldn't be bothered posting on a stock in my watch list. Ive got 50 odd. Christ id be busy...


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## snsdmonkey (4 November 2011)

Moit said:


> Good point tremmas, i just don't see why he has to continue rubbishing a stock he doesn't even hold... if it were me, i wouldn't be bothered posting on a stock in my watch list. Ive got 50 odd. Christ id be busy...




Maybe the reason why he doesn't hold it is because he believe it's not going to do what you guys are thinking it will. Everyone has an opinion, don't go attacking others because they don't see things the way you do. Especially since tech/a's been using graphs and such to back his opinion up.


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## tech/a (4 November 2011)

Moit said:


> Good point tremmas, i just don't see why he has to continue rubbishing a stock he doesn't even hold... if it were me, i wouldn't be bothered posting on a stock in my watch list. Ive got 50 odd. Christ id be busy...




You have a strange definition of rubbishing?
I trade only 3 things at the moment
FTSE 
DAX and SPI futures
So on the stock front plenty of time.

Running a small company with 21 employees takes a little longer
My interest is sparked by people like yourself and the absence of an alternate view.
There is one you know!


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## mr. jeff (4 November 2011)

Rubbishing carries a negative connotation and implies that the attack is personal.
I am by no means an authority on anything and extremely talented at not understanding things quickly, but there is no attacking anywhere intended. 

RED is technically weak and has been since early September. That is all that is being put across. Fundamentally, a whole other story perhaps - and remains exciting; but the point to take out of it is that holding a stock blindly because of a story is dangerous in some people's eyes and thus they seek to try and aid those that they perceive to be at risk by bringing some balance into the discussion by offering their interpretation of the situation. 

So anyone that sees an attack on their investment and responds defensively portrays their reasons for holding as emotional (not arguing whether these reasons are valid or not) and this is in complete contrast to the way that technicals work. Profit comes from emotional buyers and emotional sellers. 

So; whilst it may seem gruff to some, that seed of doubt that may have crept in is actually a favour, not an attack, and is worth considering. 

Everyone make their own mind up of course. Certainly at this stage the fundamentals and technicals are at odds, and that is exactly why we are in this situation posting here and expecting higher prices.
We now have some technical analysis on RED and a wealth of fundamental analysis, so cheers all round, thank you all for contributing.


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## Dougs Antiques (4 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> 15 hell I wish!
> 
> Enjoying the discussion.
> Particularly your comments.




Hmmm my guess would be about 50 years old, sucessfully self employed, but got into business in the last 15 years after making a few good bucks from the stock market (how close am I ?)
Anyhow I do agree with your veiws on RED, although I do hold.
Today was a good day for RED but it was also good for a massive amount of others.
If RED doesnt hit 24 cents soon I will be out (not to say that I wont get back in at some stage), I think its worth holding on to RED for the next week to see what happens.
MACD is changing direction/momentum which is a posative but in saying this Monday could see a reversal back to 18.5/19.0...just see what happens.
If there is posative trading early next week I believe that confirmation of the BUY will be at 22.5 with fair volume breaking its recent highs.
Here is my chart.


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## tech/a (4 November 2011)

How close
Self employed for 35 yrs
Business is a civil construction company
In my 50s
Trade because I can and not because I have to.
Couldnt think of anything worse would bore me to death as anyone who can turn a profit trading will attest to.


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## Chasero (4 November 2011)

Looking across gold equities, EAU, MML, RED, etc...

They all are following the same pattern. The question is... are gold equities worth going long?


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## beatle (5 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> See this is where the vast difference in trading styles are.
> I have no idea who is buying and selling ---Dont care. I dont guess or speculate I anticipate. but for me to anticipate i need to clearly see a change of momentum.
> 
> Cant see that.
> ...




Tech/a, I agree that your trading style is vastly different to mine. I have stated so many times that I don't have much knowledge of charting, other than to be aware of what chartists are thinking so I can develop my view of what traders using that as a basis for their own trading. But in fact since I watch the screen most days on and off unless I fall asleep (lol) I do notice the patterns of the various trading activities that are employed for RED. And whilst you don't give a damn about who is trading, as you state, I do as it tells me whether a major player seems to be buying or selling - and I will give you an example:

I have consistently bought RED over the years, now I have quite an accumulation. There are times over the years when I bought at a considerable premium to the share price of the following weeks when I have bought up shares only to find out someone substantial has been dumping. In latter times I have been more aware of who is exiting - for instance when Matthews was dumping a few months back he enabled me to buy more when it retraced all the way back to 12.0 cents (but I was buying at 14.0 cents a little earlier). So while I know Matthews has been selling recently I was not prepared to buy more shares while he was dumping, who knows how low he was prepared to take it down.

Now from your technical analysis, maybe a good chartist can convert that into charting information, without the need to know the exact reasons for it going down, but for my purpose I am more comfortable with knowing the seller (or the buyer), if its possible. And of course you can't be confirmed on my interpretation on anyone who is not a substantial shareholder (and Matthews has proved to be very poor at putting in substantial shareholder notice variations, its lucky that RED does publish them at the base of most announcements!).

And whilst you are happy with your trading style then I'm also happy with my investing style too. I took your comment as RED having similar trading patterns to PEN as a generalisation that proved you didn't really know much about the company, and for your trading maybe you don't need to know it, but for my investing style I do need to know, and I am very comforted that RED has got a fundamental valuation north of the mid 30's, it just depends on how high you want to apply the following years gold prices to get a better idea. Petra Capital at 37 cents is an indication of their view on gold price.
AND by the word valuation, I am basing it on value as determined from a cash flow forecast using ore reserve information. For the uninformed, its the best way to determine an NPV for a company in production, and for any company that NPV tends to be an underpinning value as most successful lower cost, longer life operations tend to trade at a considerable premium to that underlying value.

I just want to see how RED goes once it announces it is ramping up its gold production in line with the production schedule in the coming months (of course AFTER the commissioning and first gold pour).


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## tech/a (5 November 2011)

There is nothing wrong with becoming an expert in one or a handful of companies.
You only really need a few exceptional growth stock in a lifetime if you have enough initial capital behind you---- to change your life--or even lifestyle.

Westfield
Commonwealth
West farmers
Fortesque

Are a couple which spring to mind
Perhaps RED will join those ranks


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## beatle (5 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> There is nothing wrong with becoming an expert in one or a handful of companies.
> You only really need a few exceptional growth stock in a lifetime if you have enough initial capital behind you---- to change your life--or even lifestyle.
> 
> Westfield
> ...




Whilst I do show a love affair with RED, I'm also a realist Tech/a!

Based on its current gold project at Siana, RED can only become a small-mid tier gold producer, it would not develop into anything beyond that. IF Mapawa or one of the other porphyry prospects start to prove more than additional feed into the Siana gold plant then RED could build its market cap beyond A$1.0 billion, but it would never be able to achieve anything like that without additional projects to its core Siana gold project.

I'm not sure if you were being facetious with your comment Tech/a about it possibly being another FMG, but just to let you know I don't have a business with 21 employees, but I have been involved in the mining industry a lifetime until I retired, was an executive company director and investment banker before that, so I do know a little about what might be achievable. 

But I agree that you only need a few good investments to set yourself up for a lifetime. RED does provide an opportunity for those who want to be patient to make more than a quick trade due to its significant discount at present, but one must also recognise that it still has the risks associated with any resource project! 

I'm comfortable with that risk, and since my first shares in RED (GNR as it was known at the time) were purchased as a placement at around 2 cents I'm well in the money despite me buying many more at much higher prices in recent years, and at a few times when Siana wasn't even a consideration in the company or when I was so frustrated with developments at Siana a few years ago I did sell a some RED shares too. AND RED has helped set me up for many other successful investments over recent years, but now I'm simply holding to wait for its true value being determined by the market! And I don't mean another PEN!


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## tech/a (5 November 2011)

RED has traded from 5c to 24c recently
PEN 3c to 15c
Both if traded well could have picked up 80% of those moves.
400% return from both.

Regardless of which has what potential good timing and the ability to trade would have given some tremendous returns.

What I saw with PEN were traders/ investors who rode that move both UP and DOWN

If you have a look through most threads where the stock has moved up strongly you'll note most ride it all the way back down again
All the while protesting to all who will listen how everyone has got it wrong!

Now if gold falls down the tube RED may well become another victim,even with production.
If it flies through 2500 +  it may see your 37c even without production.

These are general comments using both PEN and RED as examples it's not a comparison or competition.

My point is simply that I personally ( not you or anyone else)
Look for and anticipate opportunity ---- I just don't see it at this time in RED.
But if people hold then bask in the profits.
Maybe I will join you one day.


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## Chasero (5 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> RED has traded from 5c to 24c recently
> PEN 3c to 15c
> Both if traded well could have picked up 80% of those moves.
> 400% return from both.




The difference between PEN and RED is that PEN produces uranium, which has never took off. 

RED produces gold, which has schedules for when it turns a profit. I wouldn't touch PEN with a 10m pole as uranium is one of the riskiest things to invest in. (japan didnt help either!!)

Just look at BMN. The start up costs to start producing uranium there are a tonne of $$!!! They just keep keep conducting feasibility studies on March. etc which is MEANT TO END in DECEMBER 2011! Are you seriously joking? 

This just means one thing. Uranium companies have a huge start up capital and are therefore one of the MOST riskiest things to speculate on! Let's just keep issuing the public with reports once every 4 months and pray for a joint venture!

Again, DYOR. Who knows PEN and BMN could be huge 3 yrs from now! I'd rather be in gold tho, and wouldn't touch uranium stocks till I SEE results.

That's where I see faults in charting analysis. You're blindly 'investing'/trading without looking at the fundamentals of a company. Why would people invest in PEN I have no idea! At least with RED they already have all the capital they need to produce gold (and have all the facilities available to do so).

People who invested their cash in PEN obviously don't understand how much capital uranium companies need to get going. BMN is praying for an offer from Hanlong or joint ventures. Yeah! That's the way! Invest in companies who are begging the Chinese to be taken over. People should NEVER invest in things they don't understand, and just a quick browse through the PEN thread shows that


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## tech/a (5 November 2011)

Both moved 500% in recent years
That my friend is a fact.

One a crap company and one a boomer

Frankly I don't give a rats about a company.
If it's moving in my direction and I can eliminate risk then I'm in.

Good
Bad or
Ugly


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## Starcraftmazter (6 November 2011)

Mini breakout of the last 2 weeks or so uber flat trading range on higher volume than in recent time on Friday.

Bullish enough signal, or too minor?


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## snsdmonkey (6 November 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Mini breakout of the last 2 weeks or so uber flat trading range on higher volume than in recent time on Friday.
> 
> Bullish enough signal, or too minor?




Too minor in my opinion. Just happened to coincide with a massive rally on the ASX and the price of gold so you really can't see anything into it.


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## LostMyShirt (6 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Too minor in my opinion. Just happened to coincide with a massive rally on the ASX and the price of gold so you really can't see anything into it.




I can't help but agree with you there but then again there _may_ be a possibility of investor confidence returning to the stock - possibley due to some underlying piece of information whether in the company itself or in the price of Gold.

The Friday move is much too small to be considered anything. However if it broke, say, 22cents - I'd be pretty confident for a run up to 24.5 cents and challenge the resistence level.


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## TMC93 (6 November 2011)

Put this into Research Tools in E*trade and it seems significantly underpriced from what morningstar can gather. Haven't done any significant research into this company but might look into it.


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## snsdmonkey (6 November 2011)

TMC93 said:


> Put this into Research Tools in E*trade and it seems significantly underpriced from what morningstar can gather. Haven't done any significant research into this company but might look into it.
> 
> View attachment 45090




That's all based on speculation though. If all price reports and Research Tools were 100% accurate, the EMH would be in place and everyone would be millionaires. But we all know that it's not the case aye


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## TMC93 (6 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> That's all based on speculation though. If all price reports and Research Tools were 100% accurate, the EMH would be in place and everyone would be millionaires. But we all know that it's not the case aye




I know, thats why i said it the share was only underpriced according to morningstar


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## snsdmonkey (6 November 2011)

TMC93 said:


> I know, thats why i said it the share was only underpriced according to morningstar




Underpriced according to Bell Potter as well. All of these ratings are based on speculation though. Until RED actually starts producing I don't think any of the NPV valuations will be taken into account much, let alone reached.


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## TMC93 (6 November 2011)

I agree, when i first started investing i put too much trust into a recommendation and bought FMS at 20c, hasn't done anything and i dont expect any returns until production starts.


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## Chalea (6 November 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Bullish enough signal, or too minor?




Needs to break downtrend line or better still the recent high @ 21.5.
Bollinger band squeeze means trend is near.
Bullish close above moving average line.
Bullish MACD signal line cross/center line cross.
Bullish RSI cross of center line/downtrend line.
Bullish Slow Stochastic cross.

Bullish symmetrical triangle breakout target = 20 + (23 - 15) = 28c

Click chart


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## beatle (7 November 2011)

Hi All RED posters, great to see so many posts!

I'm so impressed to see all the posts - I recall a time when I was only talking to myself on here (at least I had a serious discussion those days in full agreement, lol). I guess its the sign of the times, and whilst I believe its everything related to do with RED progressing towards first gold production, I'm sure a chartist must be also comforted when there is such an incredible uplift in posting activity. Sort of an indication of volumes of interest in the company for whatever reason.

As for the comments by all the new chartists, I guess you all say that you don't know and don't care what is going on with RED other than there are signs that its of interest, for whatever technical trading reason, maybe that there is something alerting you all to it, but that it still has to break resistance at 21.5 cents and then 24.5 cents. I don't have a problem with that call, and I wonder if it does break through those levels, does it mean you will start to buy the stock? I am intrigued that whilst the pure chartists seem to now be observing its trading, there must be something that you have all noticed that puts it on your observation list. And yet you are not ready to buy at the moment. 

Well from a pure fundamental point of view I can assure you that RED is not a pure speculative gold explorer anymore, its core activity is transitioning from gold developer to gold producer. That transition is due to be complete within the next month (unless there is a hiccup!), and whilst such a hiccup will be minor in the overall scheme of things IMO, RED will be pursued by all and sundry once the news breaks that it is a gold producer, especially once it confirms its producing gold at anything like the forecast rate and forecast operating cost.

So its such an exciting time for me, and I'm sure for us longer term posters (what do you think Moit - I'm appreciative of your posts over the past couple of years or so mate, it has kept me sane when there have been so many frustrating times?). 

I agree that RED's move on Friday was in step with other gold producers and a move upwards in gold price last Thrusday night, but I have no doubt that at some point soon it will move despite the gold price, as it will be moving towards that NPV valuation, in the mid-30's and upwards (depending on the gold price of course). And Tech/a, a gold price above US1,000 will see a valuation ABOVE its current level based on the base case cash flow model!!!


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## Dougs Antiques (7 November 2011)

Chalea said:


> Needs to break downtrend line or better still the recent high @ 21.5.
> Bollinger band squeeze means trend is near.
> Bullish close above moving average line.
> Bullish MACD signal line cross/center line cross.
> ...




Thats a prety ambitious call, ATM i will be happy to see 21 cents.
I hope that you are right, this week will tell a story for RED IMO.
Im watching closely, ready to press the exit button.


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## snsdmonkey (7 November 2011)

Very good volume in the first hour of trading. Today could be the day :


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## beatle (7 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Very good volume in the first hour of trading. Today could be the day :




Snsdmonkey, the sell down at 20 cents earlier this morning could mean Matthews has re-entered the market to sell down a few more. 

Whilst the push of gold production anticipation is there, Matthews has the capacity to keep it capped for a bit longer if he decides to do that - that frustrates me as I simply can't understand why RED management don't facilitate a take out of his shares! 

(Of course this scenario of mine re Matthews is pure speculation!).


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## snsdmonkey (7 November 2011)

beatle said:


> Snsdmonkey, the sell down at 20 cents earlier this morning could mean Matthews has re-entered the market to sell down a few more.
> 
> Whilst the push of gold production anticipation is there, Matthews has the capacity to keep it capped for a bit longer if he decides to do that - that frustrates me as I simply can't understand why RED management don't facilitate a take out of his shares!
> 
> (Of course this scenario of mine re Matthews is pure speculation!).




Yeh he might have. There was a massive sell down at 20c less than an hour ago. Are we talking about the same thing?


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## Moit (7 November 2011)

Hi all RED club members. 

Hi Beatle once again an informative post, as always. Thanks for your kind words to mate. It certainly has been a rocky couple of years. You got me thinking when you mentioned longer term holders. I went back through to see when i first posted, page 9. Wow, how time flies, and wow how popular this RED thread has become. So many new posters, especially of late. To me that tells me one thing. The day of gold explorer, come producer is nearing, and investors are realizing it.( And Beatle, yes your were talking to yourself quite a bit back then, lol. )

Tech/a, i was a bit harsh on you mate, and i apologize. You can be negative to wards RED, but you make some extremely valid points. Everyone has there own trading style, and if you don't see a buy signal at the moment, you obviously have your reasons and that is your prerogative. I do wish you and all followers success.

As for todays trading, it seems Mathews have backed off, completely by the looks of it. Volume is back to normal. Maybe RED can do its own thing now. Hopefully an announcement will arise shortly, or anticipation will kick in and drive that sp up, breaking them well known resistance levels. 

Its great to see some knowledgeable chartists popping on the RED thread. I'm a bit like you Beatle. I know the basics, but when you start talking stochastic cross or bollinger bands, ill just leave that to the experts.

Lets hope the next few weeks become rather GOLDEN for us all.

Cheers Moit


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## Moit (7 November 2011)

I take back what i said, re Mathews backing off a bit, completely by the looks of it. Ive completely missed the dumping of a million at 10.20 a.m.


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## snsdmonkey (7 November 2011)

Moit said:


> I take back what i said, re Mathews backing off a bit, completely by the looks of it. Ive completely missed the dumping of a million at 10.20 a.m.




And some more dumping afterwards


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## Chasero (7 November 2011)

8% Friday and flat today? I'll take that.

>10% returns over a week is asking for a bit much


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## tech/a (7 November 2011)

This is all spectulation.
You all feel better if you can explain why there are sales.
Simply you dont know who is selling let alone why?



> 8% Friday and flat today? I'll take that.




Its not a sign of weakness
Nor is it strength.
Infact its on par with most everything else in the market today


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## beatle (7 November 2011)

Yes Moit/Snsdmonkey I was referring to the dump ~10.20am. And if it was Matthews there might be more to follow based on his recent past. And yes Tech/a I have no clue why he's selling if it's him (although there seems to be some problem with his relationship with management from what I can gather)! 

But I'm not so worried about why he's selling, more that he could cap it's rise for a while.


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## jancha (7 November 2011)

beatle said:


> RED share price looks weak today, then all of a sudden there are 13.5 million odd shares traded at 1.5 cents down from yesterday. It was a cross sale, so that means maybe a big holder putting them into a more suitable associated entity. I wouldn't be surprised to see the share price strengthen now, clearly that buyer/seller was setting up the market for that cross trade!
> 
> In the short term I can see RED moving back up, no one in their right mind will allow a company, with a DCF on its Siana project of 33.5 cps, and now with Mapawa (valued at anything upward of 9cps) plus excess cash 2 cps (ie total value now about 44.5 cents) languish at 18 cents for too long - there are too many reasons now why RED will be moving up in a hurry, soon!




15th of April 2010. No offence Beatle but at 18c back then and with those too many reasons it hasn't really changed a year+ on. Perhaps now with the on coming gold pour it may have hopefully the right reason for moving up but you would think that the market would have factored that in already? I've tipped it to move up in the November stock contest on the news of a gold pour and if there's a delay i reckon i'll be on the bottom of the list at the end of the month.


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## tech/a (7 November 2011)

Id be suprised if much of the Fundamental expectations have not been already factored into the price.
If so you maybe suprised at the performance of RED.

Doubled in price June- Sept


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## Rick64 (7 November 2011)

gday beatle wondering if you could give me some advice.
I have most of my cash in a company that will give me an almost guaranteed 25% in May next year, but it means my money is tied up until then. I respect your wisdom and experience in the market as I have followed your posts for a long time.  Do you think it would be wiser to accept  the 25% annualised 40% or sell now at a loss and put it into RED or other specs that could give me a better return. TIA


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## beatle (7 November 2011)

H Jancha, no problems with your observations, and I agree that its been a dismal price performer in the last year or so. The biggest issue has been the expectation of a gold pour in April this year, and due to the quagmire onsite related to historically high rainfall the share has suffered due to continued disbelief for its failure to meet the company's own timeframes and announced gold pour date!

I personally have been onsite a few times recently, and guess what - the photos RED has put on their website ACTUALLY are of Siana, lol! AND the progress towards actual gold production is definitely clear to see. AND whilst there could be slippage of a week or 2 to first gold production, it certainly is gearing up as expected, and I won't be too concerned about these micro-moves.

Tech/a, I have no problem with your comments about it already peaked - perhaps you just need to watch and see how things work out in the coming months.... (I have got my money where my mouth is, and whilst I don't have a big mouth, I have got more than a few million shares in RED, so let's see how it pans out!). What many have failed to recognise with its share movements up from the single digits through to its current share price, is that most gold producers do trade at a PREMIUM to the NPV value, and generally at a significant premium if the gold producer has a long life, low cost mine. RED is still about 50% of that NPV value, and it will re-equilibrate in its own time, once the milestones are achieved, viz, Wet commissioning completion, first gold pour, steady state gold production, confirmation of production rates/cost levels. Then it will be priced more on its EPS, P/E rather than the NPV, plus any successes it may have with its exploration outside of the Siana pit. And yes you are quite right, all of that depends also on gold price in the coming months. I can't see it falling below US1,000/oz any time soon, thats why I am confident that RED will perform well in the coming months. (Regardless of how it looks like on the charts today).

(Oh Moit, I forgot to add that I thought that bollinger was a type of champagne - and I reckon that's what we will be drinking when it really does re-value, lol).


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## tech/a (7 November 2011)

Beatle

What was your buy in price?


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## snsdmonkey (7 November 2011)

Weird close for the day. Massive dump down to 0.195 and then it rose back to 0.205 in no time.

Adjusted back to 0.195 LOL


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## Chasero (7 November 2011)

8% friday 2% today 

Haven't been this in this many profits since early this year.


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## Chasero (7 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> 8% friday 2% today
> 
> Haven't been this in this many profits since early this year.




nvm -ve today! Man why can't I edit!


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## beatle (7 November 2011)

Tech/a, my buy in price is problematical, noting that I have bought a lot of shares very cheaply many years ago, then sold some, then bought some, etc etc (I have held shares for more than 14 or so years!), and bought more during the early part of the GFC, but more recently bought a lot at around 14.0 cents, plus 18.0 cents so those last buys have affected the overall average price. I confirm that it would have to drop appreciably for me to be even square.

But that sort of investment (or at points it was definitely speculation of the highest order!), is not available to traders. I tend to take a position very early on and hold it and slowly average as it moves in step with my view - this has not always worked out, I lost out on ATN when the company put out misleading information and that hurt my investment. And at the moment I have been slowly accumulating on COZ, i consider this will be a real bonanza but no way would a chartist consider buying COZ at the moment! 

Because RED has been so important for me, as I say I have made a lot on those shares I traded out of much earlier (bearing in mind initially I was buying at prices around 2 cents back in 1997!) and I hold an appreciable amount (in value terms) currently I watch it like a hawke, I talk with the main players continuously, and I have gone onsite to establish that progress is as the reports confirm. 

Whilst I'm not privy to anything that is not already available to the market I get more comfort by being so close to the daily activities of the company, and it gives me something to do when I get bored watching the screen (and having a nap). Being a chartist, what you do not understand and don't want to know about, is that RED will be a serious gold producer, its bankable feasibility study is sound in all respects, its capital investment is substantial, it is being put together by a competent team of professionals who have been involved in the mining industry for many years and the contractors, both processing and mining wise, are industry experienced.

In all my years I have never had so many frustrations due to the delays experienced with the project however, the fact the Mapawa MPSA took forever to be granted, the first resource statement and the underground ore reserve statements were exceedingly slow in being determined, the first expected development based on Soc Gen finance in 2008 didn't eventuate. ALL these factors have built a high level of disbelief that RED would ever produce gold at Siana. But to give them credit they have continued to fight against the grain on all these issues, and despite the rainfall early on in the year impacting the development, they have finally got to the stage where they on the cusp of gold production. Its all these delays and failed attempts to develop the project that has enabled RED to be very attractively priced now, and remains still full of doubt by many participants following the share price on a daily basis.


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## Chalea (7 November 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> ATM i will be happy to see 21 cents.




Short term testing of previous resistance, now support.
Rectangle target either 18.5c or *21.5c*


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## Dougs Antiques (7 November 2011)

Chalea said:


> Short term testing of previous resistance, now support.
> Rectangle target either 18.5c or *21.5c*
> 
> View attachment 45097




I had an idea that today would see some sort of reversal from Friday (I did post it on Friday I think) and I think tomorrow will see a continuation of today with a possible (very possible) 18.5 cent close.
Your forcast of 21.5 is quite a bit away from 28 cents?
Regards
Dougs Antiques


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## beatle (7 November 2011)

Sorry Rick64, you & I were posting at the same time earlier so I failed to see your post. As you will be aware, I'm not a financial advisor so all I can do is make some general comments that might give you some food for thought to assist your own decision. And I'm sure you don't want me to tell you how to suck eggs but you might think I am!

Firstly, there is no doubt that the equities market is highly volatile at the moment, & many sectors of the market are trading at relatively low historic prices. Some sectors such as retail deserve that due to very difficult market conditions, but others such as the banks are trading at low prices as translated into dividend yields. 
You need to consider whether your current investment is in a sector that really will provide the guaranteed 25% return that you refer to-this is completely unrelated to whether you invest any money in RED. I personally have never bought shares with money that should've been used to say for example pay down outstanding debts (long term home loan excepted).
With regard to the general market I'm of the view the only sector that will likely benefit from the demise of the euro zone & USA debt burden - remains the gold sector, especially with an increasing possibility of QE3 for the USA. That will benefit RED along with other gold producers. I'm confident that RED will produce gold within the next 4 or 5 weeks & that its therefore got the added bonus of a rerating plus the gold price move. But like any gold producer it will always have the usual risks associated with gold producers plus the added risks that start up operations incur. 
There are other factors which could affect share price in the coming weeks, such as:
1. Matthews selling down further - this could push the share price down a tad, not just cap the price (he did that over the past few months when he moved from 17 odd % down to 6 odd %!).
2. Whilst the proposed consolidation is probably favourable for RED in the longer term, it may place some pressure on the price at the time it does occur (again this depends on how many positive announcements might coincide with any consolidation). 

I suggest if you decide you want to invest more in RED it won't hurt to remove some of those factors by delaying your purchase to once the consolidation has occurred & when RED has made an announcement regarding commissioning or first gold pour. 
In the meantime Matthews may have lowered the price as well!
I wouldn't be recommending buying into any spec stocks at the moment with the way things are going, having said that I admit to slowly accumulating my "next big thing".


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## Dougs Antiques (7 November 2011)

I just had a look at the weekly chart and it indicates quite a different story than Chalea.
My methods may be quite different than most and some may scrutinise my methods (Tech/a,Chalea) but it works for me.
Anyhow the weekly chart with MACD indicator shows that a change in direction is near and wil be a negative change.
This assumption is ofcourse based on no announcements from RED which would change the chart accordingly.
Im open for discussion on the RED chart .


Regards
Dougs Antiques


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## tech/a (7 November 2011)

You maybe right you maybe wrong.Too early to tell.


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## Dougs Antiques (7 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> You maybe right you maybe wrong.Too early to tell.
> 
> View attachment 45103




This method that I use is very basic, no smoke or mirrors, just plain simple weekly chart with 12/26 indicator.
Just a plain and simple and not complicated system that has a high percentage hit rate.
Regards
Dougs Antiques


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## tech/a (7 November 2011)

Its correct ALL of the time.
Its an average of price shown as a line over laid on a price chart.
Its just one average crossing another.
Like all oscillators if you enjoy getting whipsawed in Real time you'll love them.


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## Dougs Antiques (7 November 2011)

The daily has too many micro moves to be stable but the weekly serves my purpose better.
Just my way.
I dont have time to spend all day going over micro moves on multiple stocks.
It certainly isnt showing 28 cents (barring announcements)
Regards
Dougs Antiques


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## tech/a (7 November 2011)

Just an observation in a non trending period.


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## Dougs Antiques (7 November 2011)

The losing trades were minimal and more so with a stop loss where the winning trades were generous enough to warrant the trades IMO.
The second trade was a buy at 8 cents and sell At 15 cents  I think this would have been a fair call especially if you tooped up on the way up


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## tech/a (7 November 2011)

The cross cannot be seen (confirmed) until the following week.
You could not have bought until the cross completed unless you pre emptied it as you are doing currently.
Will follow your idea in R/T and show what I mean.
Unless you Gluck a long trend this idea is a waste of time and money.

What's your stop strategy?


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## Dougs Antiques (7 November 2011)

With RED and with the way that charts look I will be out at 18 cents a 4 tick drop (10%) one could argue that this is too much of a risk which is true but i dont think that this will happen this week.
Its a foregone conclusion that Mathews is dumping just need to look at his holdings slowly deminishing (not to say that he is the only culprit).
From the recent trades he is keeping the price in a tight price range 18.5 to 19.5 at times it will go slightly higher to build a buyers list to sell into at will (as we saw thismorning at 10:20 am).
If he doesnt allow this to happen at times there hasent been a long enough list at 18.5 to satisfy his stradegy.
My 
Regards


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## Starcraftmazter (8 November 2011)

TMC93 said:


> Put this into Research Tools in E*trade and it seems significantly underpriced from what morningstar can gather. Haven't done any significant research into this company but might look into it.
> 
> View attachment 45090




It might be worth considering that the information they feed you is designed with only one purpose in mind; to make you transact.


Thanks to all the techies who have posted charts and commentary. If you use an indicator measuring the interest of technical traders in the thread, it's certainly been going off in the last few days 


Lastly, I'll note that gold touched 1780 just an hour ago.


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## beatle (8 November 2011)

Absolutely Starcraftmazter, I couldn't agree more with you re substantially more interest by the chartists (I just wish I knew what they're talking about!),

Which leads me to the question of you in particular Tech/a since you haven't bought any RED stock at all - what has aroused your interest in following RED & yet not enough to buy any shares? I understand you're concerned about resistance at 21.5 & 24.5?

Another good session for gold, but to be honest I don't like such excessive 1 day moves! The Ozzie dollar has also accommodated the move up in ozzie dollar gold price.


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## snsdmonkey (8 November 2011)

Time to test that resistance!


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## Chasero (8 November 2011)

OMG NO.

All my shares sold at 0.215!! Matthews it's time to dump!!


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## tech/a (8 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> OMG NO.
> 
> All my shares sold at 0.215!! Matthews it's time to dump!!




Well you had less than 65000 then as thats all that was done.

*



			what has aroused your interest in following RED & yet not enough to buy any shares?
		
Click to expand...


*
The comments of the people within the thread and the lack of anything other than Fundamental commentary.
I guess an alternate view.
Id get interested above .26c or at around .11c dependant on how it got there and how strong it took it out.
Personally I think that this is un likley to reach .26c.
I think 11-25 likely
Anyway in the meantime Im trading Index Futs.


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## Chasero (8 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Well you had less than 65000 then as thats all that was done.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I only have 40,000


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## snsdmonkey (8 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> I only have 40,000




I had 52000, looking to pick them up again later


----------



## Chasero (8 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> I had 52000, looking to pick them up again later




Seriously, could not get back in at 0.21..

Last trade was 0.212! What a cheat! I was locked in for around 4 hours.. god


----------



## Chalea (8 November 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> I had an idea that today would see some sort of reversal from Friday (I did post it on Friday I think) and I think tomorrow will see a continuation of today with a possible (very possible) 18.5 cent close.
> Your forcast of 21.5 is quite a bit away from 28 cents?
> Regards
> Dougs Antiques




Dougs Antiques

That was a short term hourly chart with a short term 1-2 day target, (turned out to be 1)

Daily chart 28c target could take 1-2 months, (the duration of the triangle)


----------



## tech/a (8 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Seriously, could not get back in at 0.21..
> 
> Last trade was 0.212! What a cheat! I was locked in for around 4 hours.. god




If you want it buy at market.
As A very smart man said.
"Dont be a Dick for a tick"


----------



## snsdmonkey (8 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Seriously, could not get back in at 0.21..
> 
> Last trade was 0.212! What a cheat! I was locked in for around 4 hours.. god




Don't fret. I would say definitely another chance to get back in at around the 20c mark...if not lower...


----------



## Chasero (8 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Don't fret. I would say definitely another chance to get back in at around the 20c mark...if not lower...




I Hope so.. + first time I've heard that saying.. LOL.

Man after 4pm there's like another 500k trades at weird prices from 21.2, 21.3c and 21c?

How do these machines get ahead of us!! 

4pm should be dead stop yet I see all these weird trades! All the way till 4:10!

I'll just leave trading ticks to the experts.. don't like 'scalping' and won't do it again


----------



## snsdmonkey (8 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> I Hope so.. + first time I've heard that saying.. LOL.
> 
> Man after 4pm there's like another 500k trades at weird prices from 21.2, 21.3c and 21c?
> 
> ...




DOW Futures and Gold looking weak at the moment. You'll definitely get another chance. Though that might not mean so much since Berlusconi farted yesterday and we got a 200+ swing on the DOW haha.


----------



## Dougs Antiques (8 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> DOW Futures and Gold looking weak at the moment. You'll definitely get another chance. Though that might not mean so much since Berlusconi farted yesterday and we got a 200+ swing on the DOW haha.




I dont agree with gold being weak ATM.
It seems to have found some support at $1790 and fairly bullish in the last 24/48 hrs


----------



## snsdmonkey (8 November 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> I dont agree with gold being weak ATM.
> It seems to have found some support at $1790 and fairly bullish in the last 24 hrs




Haha everything I said a few hours ago just got blown out of the water. DOW futures are up, so are ASX futures and gold is back up too. Sigh, volatility these days. Yesterday I went to be with the DOW hovering at 11850 and woke up with it up 70 off a Berlusconi fart


----------



## beatle (8 November 2011)

What I have found most exciting about the trading today, and in fact the past days of Nov, is that there has been at least 25 million shares traded (today 9.8 million). That trading on the sell side I believe has been dominated by Matthews, thus it could be that Matthews has dropped another 15 - 20 million shares, thus down to around 50 million from 78 million since the report on October 31. Thus whilst he still yields some power and capping control over RED's move upwards, its now only a matter of time and he will not be influential. This happened when he had a slight respite after he put that last notice out that he had dropped to around 7.8% (or whatever it was) and the share price moved back up from 14.0 cents or so (please don't quote me of the exact numbers, I am a bit too tired to check the exact numbers).

Once Matthews is cleaned out (but he's still got some yards to go) then RED will have much less capping and maybe its the time we will see it moving past all the resistance levels. and move into a new high FINALLY!!!

I'm interested to see if we get another substantial share holder notice from whomever, is it a new player or someone like Baker Steel adding to its core holding. It would be good if it were a new investor.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (8 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Seriously, could not get back in at 0.21..
> 
> Last trade was 0.212! What a cheat! I was locked in for around 4 hours.. god




That came up as cancelled, not really sure what that's all about. 

I picked up some for 0.2 at yesterday's close, and now it's just about at the head of the 0.215 sell orders. Not sure whether to let it lapse tomorrow though, there is such high volume in the last 4 trading days, and I see buyer interest is up to 17m shares today - I haven't seen that in a long time, since RED's rise to 0.23ish in recent months.

Hmmmm 
I'll sleep on it


----------



## Mardinas (8 November 2011)

Chalea said:


> Dougs Antiques
> 
> That was a short term hourly chart with a short term 1-2 day target, (turned out to be 1)
> 
> ...




Hi Chalea,

I'm still very new to this, and keen to learn.  Would you mind explaining the target of 28c and the expectation of 1-2 months?

Thanks.


----------



## beatle (8 November 2011)

Such a dilemma Starcraftmazter, lol! On the negative (or positive for you selling them tomorrow!)  side I can't see Matthews stopping his selling for the next couple of weeks, and surely it won't keep moving up without a slight retracement. On the positive side I can't recall such a strong, high volume day for a while, and seems to me that someone is building up a large booty at the moment, not sure if it would be Baker Steel or a new player. But I feel quite certain its someone who wants to build up more than what was available today! 

(Gee I'm glad I don't want to sell out in the hope of it falling back to buy them back - I would hate to chase them up without a RED share in my pocket!).


----------



## Starcraftmazter (9 November 2011)

So this Matthews person, is he just some random guy who bought a lot of shares and is now selling them for god knows which reason?


----------



## beatle (9 November 2011)

No he's not an individual investor, he's a fund manager, in recent years his funds under management have been very successful, amongst the best performed in Australia. He took a strategic hold in RED a few years ago & built it close to 20% before the other insto's got on board. He was invaluable early on, it's hard to understand his position now, selling out just as he has gone through some hard times when RED failed to meet it's timelines with the development a few years ago.


----------



## Chasero (9 November 2011)

Woopsy, back in at 0.215 lol. There goes brokerage!

Even tho RED probably flat today, my MML and NST shares are rocking hard!


----------



## beatle (9 November 2011)

Welcome back home Chasero, lol (you probably bought Starcraftmazters shares!).

I assume Matthews has made a stand and is happy to sell at 21.5 cents. I really can't work his strategy out! (I ASSUME its him that hit the 21.5 cents on the Bid earlier).


----------



## tech/a (9 November 2011)

Youve really got to get over this Matthews hypothesis.

This idea has been around for nearly a month.(on this thread)

Get over it.
You cant explain away everyting in life and nor do you have to.
If there was a capping of price it wouldnt be going up it would be CAPPED.


----------



## nomore4s (9 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Youve really got to get over this Matthews hypothesis.
> 
> This idea has been around for nearly a month.(on this thread)
> 
> ...




I agree, who cares what this Matthews bloke is doing. If he is a fund manager there are a 100 reasons he might be selling at this level that have nothing to do with what he thinks RED share price will do in the long term, especially if he is carrying a substantial profit.

These threads that are the flavour of the month make me laugh, always guaranteed to get some irrational theories about why the price does or doesn't move.


----------



## beatle (9 November 2011)

Thanks for the advice Tech/a and Nomore4s, but whilst I have got more than $1 million riding on this I think I can decide whether its relevant to the share pricing or not! 

I have watched this share for a number of years, and whilst I can't interpret a chart for nuts, I have found certain trading styles that have developed over that period. In fact I have considered Matthews selldown well before 1 month ago, and whilst of course he has any and every reason to exit, its an important consideration for those looking for the best time to enter and exit. I would imagine we will "feel" his departure once the dumps stop happening so frequently.

As we have agreed before, there is more than 1 view and my view suits me. I will post accordingly, provided it doesn't contravene ASF guidelines.


----------



## tech/a (9 November 2011)

You have $1 million worth of RED Shares?



> In fact I have considered Matthews selldown well before 1 month ago, and whilst of course he has any and every reason to exit, its an important consideration for those looking for the best time to enter and exit. I would imagine we will "feel" his departure once the dumps stop happening so frequently




So when you get a vertical price rise he will be gone?
If it goes up slowly like it is then its his fault?



> and my view suits me



.

Fine but you present it like a mormon preacher to any who will listen.
Im happy for you to pray for me but do it in silence.


----------



## beatle (9 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> You have $1 million worth of RED Shares?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




You have really got off the topic of RED! But I will continue to post in RED, as I consider it to be a worthwhile investment, and I'm happy to provide anyone with information, to those who seek information about the company, as much as I can bearing in mind my knowledge is limited to market releases, or my speculation of what I think might happen/develop related to its mining business.  

If you want to be on this RED thread I suggest you have to put up with all my rants - after all I have been posting on here for a couple of years at least and I think you started to chip in about 1 month ago! And you still suggest you wouldn't consider investing in RED. So how does that work. I will continue to post as I have done.

With Nomore4s' comment about flavour of the month thread I wonder who you are referring to. RED (and its predecessor GNR) has been my flavour of the month now for 14 years, lol, and I have been posting such about RED on ASF for as long as I have been a member! (Over several hundred posts!).


----------



## tech/a (9 November 2011)

> And you still suggest you wouldn't consider investing in RED. So how does that work



.

Not at this time
As Ive stated I either want to see a pull back or low risk breakout.

But you have me interested.

Now you stated you have a $ 1 million (not me) on RED
At around 14c average. Thats 6 million of them.


----------



## beatle (9 November 2011)

Not that its relevant, much earlier I had 8 million shares. But of course you are wrong with my entry price too! 

But regardless, I have no doubt that there is a buyer standing in the market at the moment who is mopping up the shares slowly, thus my hope that we will see a new or exisiting substantial shareholder put in a notice! I have tried to catch up with the Chairman the past days on other matters and he seems to be absent, first time for a while there is silence to my calls, thus I have a sneaking idea that he is trying to lay low at the moment (perhaps there is something in the wind - its about time!).


----------



## tech/a (9 November 2011)

> Not that its relevant




Why did you mention it.



> but whilst I have got more than $1 million riding on this




My personal view is outlandish remarks like holding $1 million in a single stock
are based more around pumping credibility than fact.

On with the show.


----------



## Chasero (9 November 2011)

nomore4s said:


> These threads that are the flavour of the month make me laugh, always guaranteed to get some irrational theories about why the price does or doesn't move.





It's interesting to have some insight to price movements, whether accurate or not. This thread has turned a little negative..


----------



## snsdmonkey (9 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Woopsy, back in at 0.215 lol. There goes brokerage!
> 
> Even tho RED probably flat today, my MML and NST shares are rocking hard!




Should've waited till tomorrow. The DOW is coming off nicely 

EDIT: Gold just dropped $5 in 15 minutes.


----------



## Moit (9 November 2011)

Hi all true RED club members.

Tech/a, seriously mate i cant believe i attempted to apologize to you. YOU are the negativity on the this thread, as some are now becoming aware of. As Chasero has just commented on. I picked this guy out a mile away and you guys continue to praise him for his pathetic analysis of a stock he truly knows nothing about. Let him go guys. Fancy asking, how many shares a person has, and to top it off, what price he paid. Tech/a, why don't you just ask the bloke, how much money he has in his account.
Get a bit fair dinkum mate, you are seriously crossing boundaries. 

Why don't you just stick to your futures. You seem mature being in you 50's and all, but seriously ,you are not coming across that way. 

Forget the tick, your a dick!! 

This thread doesn't need you. Especially if you cant even put your money where mouth is. Oh thats right, you want to get in where most of us, long term, committed, true RED shareholders got in. At 11c and below. Bad luck buddy, you missed out. So much for your charting strategy. Back to the books my friend. Most of us are up 40 to 50%. Where are you. ZERO. Stick to your futures and please mate, do all of us a favor and hop off. 

I may be out of line with ASF rules and regulations. But at the end of the day, lets look at the instigator. Not the bloke who truly believes in a company, that will shine and prosper. But, gets offended when people with so much negativity, who don't even hold, can abuse the hell out of a company that is just getting off the ground, and get away with it. Surely ASF can note that. If they are smart, they will know who to kick off !! 

Between my father and i we have got a heap of RED shares and i have been on this thread since it virtually started. My father is currently pre-retired, cruising the country in a Winnebago. But i vouch for him as well. And to be honest, he is sick to death of the @#*holes trying to bring this stock down, on this forum...

Beatle (preacher, buddy, good mate, all he was trying to do was to elaborate, in a round a bout way, how much time, money and research he had given this particular stock ). ( 14 odd years to be exact ). Why try and nut him out to his very last dollar with RED. Some would assume that YOU were actually Mathews?? 


Beatle i am going to try my best to catch up with you and the likes of others at the infamous and inevitable gold pour. I think its time to meet and discuss our prosperities and indiscretions.

Guys , us on the RED thread don't need this monkey. Obviously its his way of relating to the world and clinging to every forum. I feel sorry for him and his 20 odd slave-drivers. Time to wake up and to who is destoying this thread...

Lets move on to a very merry X- MAS...


----------



## Chasero (9 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Should've waited till tomorrow. The DOW is coming off nicely
> 
> EDIT: Gold just dropped $5 in 15 minutes.




Yup 

Oh well! Too late now! (Was actually hoping for an announcement this week)

^ Yes Moit, considering I posted I sold shares at 21.5c and received a response "You must've only held less than 65k" har har was not the most welcoming response..

I mean really? We're here because we're interested in the stock. Opposing views are welcome but some have gone a bit extreme at taking a dig rather than making any real contribution to the thread.


----------



## nomore4s (9 November 2011)

Time to all take a deep breath and relax.

Tech is quite within his rights to post his thoughts on this stock in this thread whether he holds RED or not.

I also have no idea why any of you are getting upset, the nature of the markets mean there will be opposing views which is why one person sells at a certain price and another buys. Tech hasn't said anything negative about the stock, just that it is in a trading range atm and he wouldn't be looking to buy until it breaks out of the range or revisits support.

Like I said before let it all play out and if RED can produce and be profitable I have no doubt there will be a re-rating at some stage but I'm in techs camp that it could take a while.


----------



## vkdirector (9 November 2011)

To be honest I have enjoyed Tech/a's and Chalea's thoughts and charts in this thread. For every share trade that goes on in any company there has to be a buyer and a seller for it to happen.

I dont think any personal attacks aimed at anybody is needed in this thread but I do like to see some balance to each side of every bodys point of view.


Another point I was going to ask was if Matthews is selling a lot of his shares like some people have hinted at, with him being a major share holder ( I think) doesn't there have to be a statement of his trades as a major stock holder??? 
The last I seen that was listed as him selling was on the 30/8/11. 

Or does the asx give him say 2 months to put the paperwork in??

I do hold RED shares


----------



## Des P (10 November 2011)

vkdirector said:


> To be honest I have enjoyed Tech/a's and Chalea's thoughts and charts in this thread. For every share trade that goes on in any company there has to be a buyer and a seller for it to happen.
> 
> I dont think any personal attacks aimed at anybody is needed in this thread but I do like to see some balance to each side of every bodys point of view.
> 
> ...




Hi all red share holder's the threads have been very interesting but i have to agree with Moit, there is point where people can push there views and keep on pushing for no Mutual benefit but there own but to prove who is right and who is wrong .
The way i see it red share holder's (and i am one) the glass is half full
For those that dont hold, the Glass is half empty
Hope i haven't offended any body
But that is the way i see it
Cheers
Des


----------



## Starcraftmazter (10 November 2011)

After cancelling and re-entering my trade before 10 due to unavailability on open (I hate that...), I ended up selling around lunch at 0.215, the volume today was too weak for my liking, the XJO is getting too close to uptrend resistance for comfort, and Italian bonds are over 7%. Overall my investor confidence is down :

Some person or group seems to have loaded up in the last 4 days, which has also spurred general interest somewhat again. We'll see what happens now. Could easily go either way from here, but in my view there is reason to be cautious over the next few trading days - once simply too much "stuff" is happening right now.


----------



## beatle (10 November 2011)

Most appreciative of your comments Moit. I must admit I got a little peed off and turned off my computer til late because of the posts, which from my point of view were getting off the point of contributing to our various views of RED.

With regard to anyone having a substantial shareholding, according to the Corporations Law (unless its changed recently) they are supposed to report any variation in excess of 1% different to the past notice, or once it gets above or below 5% total shareholding, within 5 business days of that event happening. In the case of some substantial shareholders they don't make those announcements on a timely basis at all - noting that its not the role or responsibility for that notice of the company but of the party holding the shares. And Matthews has been a perennial laggard in all those notices. You will note that from his last notice on 31 Aug 2011 that he records that he had reduced from 17.7% down to 8.1% from 21/02/2011. Clearly that is in breach of his need to declare his variation by a long way. Seems that the ASIC are either toothless or he has been reprimanded without us being made aware and yet he has now dropped further, from his holding on 31 Aug 2011 of 8.1% down to 6.1% (based on RED ASX release) on 31 October 2011. Thus he has once again failed to declare the 1% variation. I would imagine once he gets below 5% he probably won't declare it again so as to ensure that he doesn't unnerve the market before he gets out completely. But the irony is most would prefer to be aware that he is below the 5% threshold so that we know his activities are coming to any end.

And as I have mentioned, whilst some don't care about whether he is dropping shares, maybe don't care that he isn't declaring his holdings as per required by the regulations, well that's ok for them. But there are regulations that should be enforced for all, for those such as me that use that information.

Enough of that topic from me for now!


----------



## Joe Blow (10 November 2011)

Moit said:


> Forget the tick, your a dick!!




Ease up on these kind of remarks please.



Moit said:


> This thread doesn't need you.
> 
> ...
> 
> ...




Different opinions do not destroy a thread. However, insults and personal attacks do every single time. "Negativity" hasn't affected the tone of this thread, but the way people have been relating to each other has.

Alternative views and differing analysis are always welcome, as long as the case being argued is carefully considered and respectfully presented. If you disagree with any particular analysis then feel free to offer a rebutal. 

Forums are places where a variety of different viewpoints can be presented for the consideration of others. Discussion and debate is never a bad thing, as long as it is conducted in a civil and constructive manner.


----------



## tech/a (10 November 2011)

The concern from the younger more in experienced is that ANY comment which doesn't paint a pretty picture of a stock will affect it's price.if they have a holding and don't understand price moves and risk mitigation their concern is loss.

Markets a tough place and emotion like that shown will rip you apart.
With gold down $25 ish and the O/S markets well off.
RED and everything else is going to take a hit.

It won't be me or Mathews.


----------



## Dougs Antiques (10 November 2011)

Very interesting reading.....
BACK TO RED
I sold out yesterday based on recent uptrend on better volume, but yesterday showed that there isnt much of a desire for 21.5 and above.
My veiws yesterday as I watched periodically was there is a high probabillity of a few down days to come due to lack of intrest.
I really dont care for 1 tick so sold allmost everything @ 21 cents (kept 220 the odd amount)
Now at cash and I will wait it out.
Im glad i did it seems like perfect timing, gold is down an still falling as I type this post.
Fears of Italy and Euro
Global markets taking a mini dive.
Regards
Dougs Antiques


----------



## beatle (10 November 2011)

Good timing DougsAntiques, seems you are very well disciplined and keep a rational mind! 

Its an interesting time, there are so many different factors at play, both positive (anticipated announcements re plant commissioning, reserves updates, possible new substantial shareholder notices etc) and negative (the general state of the market, gold price going down at the moment, MATTHEWS lol etc).

Its about time we see an announcement on Siana, an update should be around the corner considering this exciting and critical stage of the project development - continuous disclosure provisions do apply!

And there is an AGM just around the corner too - possibly RED is trying to hang off its announcements to have them coincide or be closer to that meeting, but continuous disclosure must prevail regardless.

I wish all RED HOLDERS well.


----------



## Dougs Antiques (10 November 2011)

So quiet in this thread today.....you could just about hear a pin drop.
Red held up better than I thought today, I suppose just wait and see what the rest of the week brings.
Gold is still dropping aswell.
Has anyone got ant T/A on the next few days IMO I think we will see a drop but im no expert.
Regards


----------



## tech/a (10 November 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> So quiet in this thread today.....you could just about hear a pin drop.
> Red held up better than I thought today, I suppose just wait and see what the rest of the week brings.
> Gold is still dropping aswell.
> Has anyone got ant T/A on the next few days IMO I think we will see a drop but im no expert.
> Regards




With such a weak day and low Volume with price pretty well stat it's a good day for RED.
The indication is that there is very little supply coming in.
Buyers were understandably scarce also.
For this to move up strongly I'd be wanting to see the first resistance level taken out with a decisive RANGE bar. Volume would be nice but extra high volume will mean supply is back on.

Seeing price rise on low volume and wide range mean buyers are seating and willing to pay higher prices to get filled--- while sellers are reluctant to sell---- supply dries up.

Look for the opposite if price is weak.(falling)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 November 2011)

I'm holding this at the moment doug.  Held well today.  Symmetrical triangle ready to break one way of the other.   Popular stock, good sentiment.


----------



## Moit (11 November 2011)

Hi RED team, great to have you on board Gringotts Bank. Welcome.

For all who are interested, there are some new November pics on the RED 5 website. Looking good.

And RED held up quite nicely yesterday, considering market sentiment and a falling gold price.

Cheers Moit.


----------



## beatle (11 November 2011)

Well spotted Moit with the pics. It looks like there is still a bit of clearing up at the moment. I wonder what the exact date of the pics, every day now is likely to see a change on the plant. 

I agree with you that RED has held up quite well, seems to me there is someone who has been buying up and I wouldn't be surprised if its an existing holder as they are probably more prepared to buy at market rather than let it fall before buying (thus my tip would be more shares for Baker Steel, but its just a guess!).

With the gold price, yes its a real wild ride, but if you take the Aussie exchange rate into perspective the price remains very attractive. I attach the last 7 days gold chart, A$ gold:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=1W


----------



## Moit (11 November 2011)

Chasero, Des and Beatle, I forgot to thankyou in regards to a few opposing views of late on this thread. Your thoughts and comments were much appreciated, cheers.


----------



## Moit (11 November 2011)

Thanks Beatle, and I also agree that someone is topping up. And if it did happen to be Baker Steel and if it where Mathews dropping, then that would clearly place Baker as the leading % holder in Red 5 Limited. Of course only pure speculation and just my thoughts. 

I'm still waiting to see you on that top 20 list Beatle, if you arn't already, lol.


----------



## tech/a (11 November 2011)

OMG what the??????

Riveting stuff!

Ive met you guys!
Infact So's Johnny!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhwJiVovkLk


----------



## 5oclock (11 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> OMG what the??????
> 
> Riveting stuff!
> 
> ...




Thats the second really good laugh Ive had from your posts today, fantastic!!!!!


----------



## beatle (12 November 2011)

The RED thread has got it all folks, we consider all aspects of RED in terms of fundamental & technical analysis, plus general commentary. And now we even boast a court jester. Welcome aboard tech/a, but until Ur a fully fledged RED holder it's just worth a giggle. Being an actual shareholder is something else altogether IMO. 

Good to see gold continuing to dazzle. 

Now to bring up something really controversial: of RED shareholders who has or intends to put in a proxy re consolidation & do you intend to vote yes or no for consolidation?


----------



## Moit (12 November 2011)

Hi Red team.

Hi Beatle, in response to your question, re, consolidation. I for one have voted and returned my proxy form. I voted for the consolidation.

If it has the potential to possibly increase North American interest from funds and other institutional investors, then I'm all for it. To me that will only drive Reds share price in one direction, up. ( So long as they are not tarred with the Mathews brush, lol. )

On the other side of the ledger, having my shares divided by 10, will be a little dis-heartening. ( Even though they are worth exactly the same amount. ) I guess it will just take a bit of getting used to, as I'm sure you will all agree.

On another note Beatle, I've been begging my wife to get more Red shares before the inevitable gold pour. She so very politely assures me NO. ( Note my avatar, lol. ) But im working on it !! 

Cheers Moit.


----------



## Dougs Antiques (12 November 2011)

As most of you know atm im not really holding RED just a few.
Im curious as to the time frame for the share consolidation after the AGM (23rd November),will it be immediate or 1 or 2 weeks or longer after the AGM....assuming it gets passed and im pretty sure it will.
The reason im asking is that its important to my trading strat.
Im guessing it will coinside with the gold pour announcement so that on the charts it get a whopping 900% increase in 1 day without any gains LOLZ
Regards


----------



## geezuguys (13 November 2011)

.....I have tried to catch up with the Chairman the past days on other matters and he seems to be absent, first time for a while there is silence to my calls, thus I have a sneaking idea that he is trying to lay low at the moment (perhaps there is something in the wind - its about time!).

Just curious Beatle, did CJ happen to return your call Last week?


----------



## geezuguys (13 November 2011)

beatle said:


> ... I have tried to catch up with the Chairman the past days on other matters and he seems to be absent, first time for a while there is silence to my calls, thus I have a sneaking idea that he is trying to lay low at the moment (perhaps there is something in the wind - its about time!).




Re previous post - was referring to your previous post (edited)...
Cheers
Geez


----------



## beatle (13 November 2011)

Hi Geezuguys. No I have had the same problem in fact for the past week, he not only is not answering his calls, he is not replying to messages which he has religiously done in the past if he has been unable to answer due to traveling. I agree that something is in process, and most likely with them getting close to final commissioning now (I would imagine) I guess he doesn't want to give anything away. 

And its important to note, that if it were bad news then due to the requirement to maintain continuous disclosure to the market this absence can only be a good sign, otherwise they would definitely have to put out an ASX release.


----------



## beatle (13 November 2011)

Regarding the consolidation.

Moit, thanks for your thoughts, and I agree with what you have mentioned about how things might turn out. Your comment that there is some getting used to the different holding number (and obviously the price change) I think are important considerations. IMO whilst the longer term outlook for RED and its share price is likely to be very positive, my thought that is will remove some of the trader types due to the higher entry price who like pennydreadfuls, and also with it being at a price never before attained there is a slight possibility that the first couple of days it could be under pressure for a very slight drop, say 5% or so, until the bigger holders support it. And of course the exact timing couldn't be more finely poised, with the ensuing expectation of the first gold pour, reserve upgrade etc etc about to be announced.

Thus while the longer term looks bright (the extent of the brightness of course also depends upon how well its initial production goes and how its promoted!), I would not be recommending too much more buying until we see if their stage managing of the news meets with the timing of the consoliation (if that makes sense!). So Moit, maybe following your wife's orders (I've been in the same situation too!) isn't too bad and you can always say "I told you so!", lol.

As to that timing DougsAntiques, you can see the possible timing in the resolutions announced as part of the AGM, but in brief it assumes:
23 Nov Shareholder Approval 
24 Nov Last day of pe-consolidated trading
25 Nov First day of post-consolidated trading on a deferred settlement basis.
And yes I would assume that RED has already canvassed the major shareholders to have an idea if the consolidation will be approved. If it doesn't get approved I am not overduly concerned, if it does get through then the major shareholders wanted it that way so thats ok too.


----------



## mr. jeff (13 November 2011)

beatle said:


> ...if it were bad news then due to the requirement to maintain continuous disclosure to the market this absence can only be a good sign, otherwise they would definitely have to put out an ASX release.




Anyone heard of Lynas recently, or the Obi gold project where they just don't say anything - or SDL which can't speak at all, or suspended stock which lasts for more than stated, always bad news then.

They were 65% on some works, I would not be surprised to hear there is some sort of problem with delays due availability of something, which will be "rectified quickly".
This is the cynic in me, I hate holding waiting on news!
I know you guys know a lot more than me w.r.t. RED, so I defer to your judgement here, and I note that the wait hasn't been serious or over anything expected, so all good, but I must dispute a company's obligation to release bad news quickly, it just seems such a rubbery thing, look at buying/selling before an announcement, things are very rarely released to the open market first! RED seems to be more conscientious than many on the other hand.
Not answering phone calls could be him avoiding you because he knows he is going to disappoint or alternatively has been hammered by other significant holders recently ?
Time will tell. Not long until we will know what is happening....although holding for news never seems to work out.


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## beatle (14 November 2011)

Hi MrJeff, I don't disagree that there could be a delay and thus CJ could be avoiding all so that he doesn't need to let anyone know of the status. BUT my view is its all about materiality ie is there something to be significantly astray, if there is then continuous disclosure will apply. If any delay is of limited impact, in terms of time/cost/future operations then there is likely that its not deemed necessary to provide such information. Of course how much of an impact is questionable.

Having waited about 14 years I think I can wait a couple more weeks...


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## Chasero (14 November 2011)

Expected gold pour = November.

It's still November?

Wouldn't management want to delay the announcement right before AGM anyway? 

Therefore, your shares are up 5% today! Now vote yes for my 200k bonus. Kidding!


----------



## Dougs Antiques (14 November 2011)

Hi all, Well im back in today @ 20.5 cents.
The recent volume although not high is higher than it has been of recent times but still trying to break 21.5 cents.
Late in the days trading I was looking at the weekly chart and scribbling a few lines on it.
RED looks about to break (it could be either way but its worth a punt with a stop loss in place).
With the current chart (weekly) you can see the current trend (the red and green lines)
The upper blue line shows the symetrical triangle formed at its apex with the green line indicating a possible break (just see what evolves ...im no expert)
If todays volume was lower I would have held off a bit longer, but there seems to be some intrest in RED (but not a huge ammount).
MACD is still looking good heading in a northerly direction.
Anyhow I put in an order afer close (2 mins after close...pre open phase) for 21.0 cents, then a few sellers popped up at 20.5 cents and I got filled at 20.5 cents just before the adjustment phase 
Regards to all holders
DYOR


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## Dougs Antiques (14 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Expected gold pour = November.
> 
> It's still November?
> 
> ...




Management has stated late November to early December so my money is on mid December if RED is consistant with other Companies and their time lines for announcements.


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## karky003 (14 November 2011)

Hi all Red Members

An article in The Age made a quick mention of Red.

"Another goldmine, with a side operation in silver in the Philippines is Red5, which starts producing this month.
''It has very low costs with silver as a byproduct. The market is worried there will be teething issues, as there always will be. But it has cash in the bank,'' Canavan says."


Read more:  
http://www.theage.com.au/money/investing/glittering-prospects-20111112-1ncow.html 

Thanks


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## Starcraftmazter (14 November 2011)

I wasn't paying too too much attention today, but it seemed like it tried to break past 21.5 but was sold down heavily at that stage around middayish? The google stocks chart isn't showing it, but it touched 20c at one point there. That was also by far the highest volume during the day (the selling). The other two major volume times today apart from open were also on down-selling. So I am still feeling a bit skeptical.

I have had my order in place at exactly 20c for the last few days, until I see some major activity I will keep it there.

Also almost forgot to mention, I'm basically expecting the markets to just crash any day now due to Europe...


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## Dougs Antiques (15 November 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> I wasn't paying too too much attention today, but it seemed like it tried to break past 21.5 but was sold down heavily at that stage around middayish? The google stocks chart isn't showing it, but it touched 20c at one point there. That was also by far the highest volume during the day (the selling). The other two major volume times today apart from open were also on down-selling. So I am still feeling a bit skeptical



I had a look at the 1 minute chart for yestredays trading on my trading platform and it doesnt show any trades @ 20 cents...I dont see why it wouldnt show those trades.


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## beatle (15 November 2011)

It touched 20 cents for a very short time, and was at that price for less than 1 minute when it was sold down with a dump at 20.5 cents. Just computer games! Not long to go now, with the AGM next Wednesday, so we can expect some action about that time I would expect, knowing the consolidation timing as well. And bad news breaks at any time, good news seems to be more orchestrated (so your triangle makes me wonder - who is drawing it, RED management or your chart!).


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## hugh_jarzz (16 November 2011)

Hey Beatle! 
I'm still on board, albeit with a lower holding, but I was reading with interest that CJ hasn't been returning calls. Hopefully it's due to last minute panicking pre the initial pour, and nothing to do with the matters referred to in the attached link. I was always of the opinion that their community relationships were extremely strong, something which the article would seem to refute. Do you know anything about this publication?....is it the mouthpiece for local dissidents or is it a respectable organ? As always, look forward to your comments.




http://www.mindanews.com/top-storie...mining-firm-in-surigao-begins-full-operation/


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## tech/a (16 November 2011)

*RED*
Still not doing anything.
Resistance at 21.5c still---well---resisting.

This is despite positive announcements.


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## Chasero (16 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> *RED*
> Still not doing anything.
> Resistance at 21.5c still---well---resisting.
> 
> This is despite positive announcements.




RED has actually been up over 8% since the last time you've posted? LOL

Also, what positive announcements are you referring to?! I don't see any?!!


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## tech/a (16 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> RED has actually been up over 8% since the last time you've posted? LOL
> 
> Also, what positive announcements are you referring to?! I don't see any?!!




No your right only Quaterly statements.
8% ok
Im used to a little more action.

GXY
NXS
NST
type.


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## Chasero (16 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> No your right only Quaterly statements.
> 8% ok
> Im used to a little more action.
> 
> ...




Well it seems like your trolling..

You type things like "Red is not doing anything".

Yet Since you've posted RED has moved over 10% in one day (to 21.5%). Then lost 3% and 3%~!

Chalea got it SPOT on with his charts when he showed possible movements to 21.5c or 18.5c.

So maybe your charting analysis needs reviewing if you think RED is "going nowhere" and it moves as much as 10% a few days later? 

A 10% return for a weeks investment is not too bad!

You keep yapping on about these so called positive announcements supposedly not moving red's shares, when RED's announcements have yet to come! 

Yes, well if you compare ANY share at the moment to NST and other breakouts, obviously they'll pale in comparison 

Note: Depending on the gold pour announcement, I expect a fair bit of movement!


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## tech/a (16 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Well it seems like your trolling..
> 
> You type things like "Red is not doing anything".
> 
> ...




[/
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
quote]




> Chalea got it SPOT on with his charts when he showed possible movements to 21.5c or 18.5c




Who?



> You keep yapping on about these so called positive announcements supposedly not moving red's shares, when RED's announcements have yet to come!




Could you point me to my yapping?



> Yes, well if you compare ANY share at the moment to NST and other breakouts, obviously they'll pale in comparison
> 
> Note: Depending on the gold pour announcement, I expect a fair bit of movement!




Oh I dont know I have a few doing OK.
Todays open position screen shot.




Ive held these only a few days.


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## isildur1 (16 November 2011)

Hi all RED members!
I am following this thread for the last 10 month and really enjoy all discussions!
I was in read-only mode, but tech/a's posts make me really bored and whats more I cant I understand why all you guys ( beatle, Chasero, Moit etc) replying to him? 
He is genuine troll . Best way to ignore him, simply ignore. RED is about numerous and spectacular stuff and he just trolling you/us guys!
You had really good topics without him and I wish you will continue.
ATM I am in for 100.000 shares at 0.19.
Have a good day all of you!


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## Chasero (16 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> [/
> 
> 
> 
> ...






tech/a said:


> [/
> 
> 
> 
> ...






Chalea said:


> Short term testing of previous resistance, now support.
> Rectangle target either 18.5c or *21.5c*
> 
> View attachment 45097





Also, too lazy to go back to the post where you posted RED is 'going nowhere' when it has positive announcements.

I replied that we were still waiting on news of gold pour, and the only positive announcement would be the day RED turns a profit.

Indeed, since then, no 'positive announcements' have come to light!

And yet you keep posting like RED has all these things going for it yet the price is stagnant.


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## tech/a (16 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Also, too lazy to go back to the post where you posted RED is 'going nowhere' when it has positive announcements.
> 
> I replied that we were still waiting on news of gold pour, and the only positive announcement would be the day RED turns a profit.
> 
> ...




Your right Price is stagnant.

Over the same period (Shorter actually) here is GXY and NST Both Im trading.
Im not trading RED as its not showing any signs these 2 have.










> trolling




from Wiki

In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory,[2] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response[3] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.[

I dont know about that.
Just as people keep stating their view and little has happened.
So too I state my view *THAT* little has happened.

If RED displayes the type of qualities I saw in the two posted above then Ill be posting similar more positive chart info on the thread.

Until then its doing nothing.


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## Boggo (16 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> If RED displayes the *type of qualities* I saw in the two posted above then Ill be posting similar more positive chart info on the thread.




You will just confuse them with complicated statements like that tech/a 

I don't know why you bother to try to help some people, a gambling mentality is difficult to overcome.

Don't discourage them though, imagine if that mentality hadn't been around when PEN was was falling through 12 cents, there would have been no "its a bargain at this price" gamblers to sell to, there are times when they have a role to play


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## Gringotts Bank (16 November 2011)

Nothing wrong with RED at the moment Boggo.  It's just static/neutral.  Symmetrical triangle is due to break one way or the other.  Started to drop through support today, then recovered.  Buyers appeared.


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## jancha (16 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Your right Price is stagnant.
> 
> Over the same period (Shorter actually) here is GXY and NST Both Im trading.
> Im not trading RED as its not showing any signs these 2 have.
> ...




Tech If you have no interest in RED and have pointed out your preferred shares why do you continue to post on this thread? Unless you wish to provoke an emotional response which you have succeeded in so that would have to make you a successfull troll.


----------



## Chasero (16 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> OMG what the??????
> 
> Riveting stuff!
> 
> ...





Tech/a, you post things like this.

You post things such as Red as positive announcements twice in the past month! YET the share price is "going nowhere".

I am wondering, why are you posting things about 'positive annoucements' other than to troll?? When clearly you haven't even looked.


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## Boggo (16 November 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> *Nothing wrong with RED at the moment Boggo.*  It's just static/neutral.  Symmetrical triangle is due to break one way or the other.  Started to drop through support today, then recovered.  Buyers appeared.




I agree GB, that's what tech/a is saying, he is waiting for the clue but that is not good enough for the mug punter mentality that labels him a troll, amazing really.


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## Gringotts Bank (16 November 2011)

I like to keep the sentiment positive boggo, since I'm holding some.


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## Chasero (16 November 2011)

Boggo said:


> I agree GB, that's what tech/a is saying, he is waiting for the clue but that is not good enough for the mug punter mentality that labels him a troll, amazing really.




I actually agree with Tech/a on some points.

I don't think RED is breaking out any time soon.

Although with 2 posts that clearly show he knows nothing about the company, referring to Non-existent positive announcements, that's concerning.

Amazing really.


----------



## nomore4s (16 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Although with 2 posts that clearly show he knows nothing about the company, referring to Non-existent positive announcements, that's concerning.
> 
> Amazing really.




Not really, I actually own shares in RED and I know next to nothing about them, I only know they are gold miners because of posts in this thread and I couldn't even tell you where the mine is. I brought purely on technical analysis and continue to hold on that basis.


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## geezuguys (16 November 2011)

I just had a look at the Red 5 website and the gallery pics for Nov seem to have been updated. It's looking to me like a very slick facility very close to being ready for business.

www.red5limited.com


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## Starcraftmazter (16 November 2011)

hugh_jarzz said:


> http://www.mindanews.com/top-storie...mining-firm-in-surigao-begins-full-operation/




Toxic waste from gold mining? Someone want to comment on this  ?




Chasero said:


> So maybe your charting analysis needs reviewing if you think RED is "going nowhere" and it moves as much as 10% a few days later?




It's wonderful. Apart from that, in both of the last two days I've bought at 20c and sold at 20.5c closing my position at the end of the day and being able to sleep knowing that if Europe blows up I'm not stuffed :. Not a massive profit by any stretch, but pretty damn easy and simple.

Not sure if I will continue tomorrow though, I'm getting suspicious of a breakout to the downside, and my closing trade today executed minutes before market close 

RED might not be doing anything, but at least it's not doing it on some damn volume compared to the last few weeks, so I can have some fun.


----------



## beatle (17 November 2011)

Most appreciative Isilduri of your comments, and I guess in an open forum we do have to accept all posters and whatever they are saying. I have tried to maintain an open mind although I admit the other week I got a bit fed up with some comments and turned off my ASF for a day or so. 

With respect to your comment Hugh_Jarz and the attachment it is quite concerning to read those comments, notwithstanding that I understand the in general the communities about Siana have been very positive about the development and that in fact RED has provided water that was not previously available to some of the communities. It may be that there are some parties who are not so positive about the development and have put together a commentary that is less than complimentary. I will follow it up with CJ when he is available, but as I mentioned before I have not had any replies for my messages since early last week. Presumably that is a reflection of some anticipated positive announcements re the commissioning onsite. That news is about ready now that we have less than a week to go for the AGM!

Its interesting to see a new substantial holder, I presume its the reason we saw all the buying the last couple of weeks, assisting Matthews with his selling down of his holding without much pain in the price.


----------



## Dougs Antiques (17 November 2011)

hugh_jarzz said:


> Hey Beatle!
> I'm still on board, albeit with a lower holding, but I was reading with interest that CJ hasn't been returning calls. Hopefully it's due to last minute panicking pre the initial pour, and nothing to do with the matters referred to in the attached link. I was always of the opinion that their community relationships were extremely strong, something which the article would seem to refute. Do you know anything about this publication?....is it the mouthpiece for local dissidents or is it a respectable organ? As always, look forward to your comments.
> 
> 
> http://www.mindanews.com/top-storie...mining-firm-in-surigao-begins-full-operation/





Based on this post and another rebel issue not so long ago http://www.pia.gov.ph/?m=1&t=1&id=57698 I have sold out all of RED
Good luck to all 
I cant trust the management atm with reports like this and not answering calls,it bothers me a lot so im on the sidelines for now.
Regards


----------



## Chasero (17 November 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> Based on this post and another rebel issue not so long ago http://www.pia.gov.ph/?m=1&t=1&id=57698 I have sold out all of RED
> Good luck to all
> I cant trust the management atm with reports like this and not answering calls,it bothers me a lot so im on the sidelines for now.
> Regards




Wow, nice find.

RED only makes up a small percentage of my portfolio anyway, so I'll continue to hold.

The moment there's a stinker announcement I'm probably out tho.


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## karky003 (17 November 2011)

This report on the company's website states the pour will be in late November 2011. 

http://red5limited.com/files/Red5-Profile-Nov2011.pdf 

"At the date of this report, civils and mechanicals are 99% complete, 
piping is 85% complete and electrics 78% complete. The first gold pour is forecast late November 2011." 

It would be great to have that 1st Bar at the AGM!


----------



## LostMyShirt (17 November 2011)

Lol...

Ok - what Tech/a says, is based on years of trading experience, financial market knowledge and a proven success rate. Since this is an opn forum, I can understand why Tech/a decides he would like to voice his knowledge on an unbias basis.

One of the worst things about this stock, is the investors. There is much too much ramping going on here and in other forums. 

I am a RED share holder, though am not heavily burdened as much as others are - and I can understand that bad news hits the heart, but please stop denouncing the slightest form of negativity.

The facts at the moment is that RED is static, there is a lot of insto movement and a milestone approaching soon regarding plant comissioning.

If you are confident about your investment and believe the fundamentals are sound, then no negtive opinion should sway your money.

When it comes to NPA, I don't care. This is all fear ongering in my opinion and I can't rely on media to give the full story.

Near target, looking for exit.


----------



## Boggo (17 November 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Lol...
> 
> Ok - *what Tech/a says, is based on years of trading experience, financial market knowledge and a proven success rate.* Since this is an opn forum, I can understand why Tech/a decides he would like to voice his knowledge on an unbias basis.
> 
> ...




Excellent post, bits I strongly agree with are my bolding


----------



## Chasero (17 November 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Lol...
> 
> but please stop denouncing the slightest form of negativity.
> 
> .




Be right back.

Let me hop onto a random popular thread and post the following:

1) Youtube vid

2) Ask users how much they are holding, then after said prying, am shocked they give more information than what I asked.

3) the one that irked me were the 2 posts that had "red share price not moving, EVEN THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN POSITIVE ANNOUNCEMENTS".

If tech/a actually looked into RED, historically, the announcements have been LESS than positive.

That's what led me to think he's been trolling.

Moving on...


----------



## tech/a (17 November 2011)

> If tech/a actually looked into RED, historically, the announcements have been LESS than positive.




Well there you go then --- ho hum


----------



## Chasero (17 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Well there you go then --- ho hum




Finally!

When RED posts it's gold pour, or when it posts a profit, and RED remains 'going nowhere' as you say, then I may actually listen to what your saying. 

Be back in a tick. Time to post in another thread saying this share is DEAD! DESPITE positive announcements! That won't rile some members surely! I'm definitely not trying to get a response!

Ho hum. Nevermind if I've done zero research into the company!

People hold RED as a speculative investment. It is what it is.


----------



## Atomic (18 November 2011)

re; NOTICE




  If ya notice this notice , you'll notice that this notice















  Is not worth noticing


----------



## Starcraftmazter (18 November 2011)

Anyone want to comment on the announcement yesterday about BoA becoming a substantial shareholder? I saw Matthews in there as well, what's that all about?


----------



## jancha (18 November 2011)

RED seems to be in a tug of war atm rangeing between 20c and 20.5c. 
You would think that something will have to give shortly. Maybe it's all about the pending announcement on the gold pour? If there's a hiccup i'd say it would give way to a drop in sp but if their on time perhaps it will head in the other direction.

Beatle are you still having trouble in getting thru to RED management?


----------



## Buckfont (18 November 2011)

Hi all RED holders.

I`m feeling a let down with the admin of this co. I haven`t made phone calls but have sent emails none of which have been replied to.
It`s like when you go to vote for your government. Prior to voting, all the promises are made with all the carrots dangling hoping that they will get into power to serve you, and once in power you end up serving them.

RED administration operates along the same lines. They expect, as the upcominging meeting will show, want us to vote for the bonuses to the directors, have faith in their ability to perform, yet they tend to forget, or don`t acknowledge that they aren`t the company but people like beatle, moit, myself and everyone else who may have large or small holdings, that are the owners.

I have always believed a company is only as good as the bosses behind the scenes, amongst other things.

It is time RED treated, respected that, and hire a PR operative to keep us there as their employers and keep us out of the dark

Nuff said


----------



## Moit (19 November 2011)

Hi all RED members, well said Buck, I believe red management are a bit to relaxed when it comes to there ann's and shareholders. ( i have stated this before ). In saying that we all know there main priority of late has been getting Siana actually constructed, off the ground and producing gold. As someone has recently mentioned, ( can't remember who exactly ), it is November and we have heard nothing!! Other than boa becoming a substantial holder.

I believe they are waiting for the results from the agm next Wednesday, most importantly, consolidation, before they pounce. But at the moment, to know something would be better than nothing...

We are about to pour gold, the least they can do is post there progress as an Ann. At least then the market knows where it stands as far as red goes..

Cheers Moit...


----------



## beatle (22 November 2011)

Hi ALL RED Holders, good to see the comments re RED PR which clearly has been lacking for us all the past couple of weeks, at such a critical time. I can confirm however, that the Chairman was in Philippines in the past week, and seems he was happy to keep a low profile in case he was asked some sensitive questions that might have been construed as providing inside information to selected investors. 

I have spoken with him and whilst he was not prepared to talk about status other than to say that we can expect an ASX release about progress at about AGM time (of course noting that the AGM is on Wed 23 Nov this week!). I would interpret that "no news" as being positive!!! Why? Because if he was stating a status report was being prepared in readiness for the AGM ahead of that time, and clearly if there was something significantly astray at this time then we should already have got such bad news in an ASX release. So my view is that the development is going along ok or if not, then a week or 2 behind schedule at the latest.

It appears some of the bigger shareholders have gone onsite the past couple of weeks and from those visits they were happy with what they saw, so that again suggests to my mind that things are going along fine. I again state its just my interpretation, and I could be wrong, but I just have a feeling we are not far off the final start up of the plant for wet commissioning if it hasn't already been underway! I am getting more excited now!!!

I do agree with all your views though, that RED should have kept us all more informed at this time since CONTINUOUS DISCLOSURE surely is paramount at such a critical time, and all sorts of conspiracy theories can develop if no news is provided. Lets hope RED can behave better than the politicians Buckfont, but I agree with your analogy, its quite appropriate in my view!

Well just a short time for the AGM now, so I guess a very short time for the next news release!!! I am EXCITED...


----------



## tech/a (22 November 2011)

Why would the market not have already priced in the commissioning of the plant.
Why is it that you all think that production will cause a price hike?
It's already moved 300% 
Maybe a case of buy the rumour and now sell the fact


----------



## mr. jeff (22 November 2011)

Not expecting much price action on production commencing, there is potential for a sell down from the small holders whilst the larger players will wait to accumulate, as there has been a long anticipation period, but it will be relief to see some  gold production.

This period would be a good time to look for an entry.

Good luck tomorrow holders.


----------



## beatle (22 November 2011)

Just for those interested RED shareholders, (ie not Tech/a who seems to love downramping RED but hasn't ever held a share in RED from his own admission) who won't be attending the AGM, I've arrived in Perth and will be here for the meeting. If there is anything significant that isn't evident from any releases re the meeting I will be happy to give a summary - is there anything that anyone wants to raise - I already have noted the comments about PR, and there is a list of other things that needs to be raised, either in the meeting or one on one, rather than over the phone which seems to land on deaf ears a lot of the time.


----------



## tech/a (22 November 2011)

> not Tech/a who seems to love downramping RED but hasn't ever held a share in RED from his own admission




Ouch!!

I'm devistated!!


----------



## geezuguys (22 November 2011)

beatle said:


> Just for those interested RED shareholders, (ie not Tech/a who seems to love downramping RED but hasn't ever held a share in RED from his own admission) who won't be attending the AGM, I've arrived in Perth and will be here for the meeting. If there is anything significant that isn't evident from any releases re the meeting I will be happy to give a summary - is there anything that anyone wants to raise - I already have noted the comments about PR, and there is a list of other things that needs to be raised, either in the meeting or one on one, rather than over the phone which seems to land on deaf ears a lot of the time.




Hi Beatle, it's great you'll be attending the AGM.

Some initial thoughts as to questions:  1.  Very interested in the ramp up schedule.  2.  Plans for getting back to Mapawa and giving it focussed attention with some serious resources (ie. not just one rig).  3.  As you noted, when are they going to shift their paradigm from developer (ie. project focussed) to producer (ie. shareholder value focussed)?  From my experience, this shift has to be a conscious decision from the top and the business culture can then follow. 

If they remain stuck in their current paradigm, it's going to continue to be a frustrating ride for shareholders.

Look forward to hearing your take on things.
Cheers
Geez


----------



## mgm1a (23 November 2011)

beatle - would appreciate if you could ask their comment on 
-rebel activity and ,
-given the key mission statement on announcements and website of "focus on development of siana", what future direction the company will be considering now that in the coming year this will be less relevant? 
thanks


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## beatle (23 November 2011)

Thanks Geezuguys and Mgm1a (great to know you are still hanging in there Mgm1a even if you have sold a larger proportion of your shares due to your concerns re the possibility of a rebel attack). I have noted your points and will ask the relevant questions either in the meeting or one on one (if those points are not already raised by the company or others).

I was expecting an ASX announcement before trade starts today, but yet to see one! Good to see gold move up a bit and with the aussie dollar still looking a bit weak its a great aussie gold price this morning, if it stayed at this level RED would be making a motza!


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## snsdmonkey (23 November 2011)

RED's Chairman Address: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20111123/pdf/422r0pf6jlbwwh.pdf


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## jancha (23 November 2011)

Yeah nice address chairman but when's the gold pour expected??
And why would you tell shareholders that females who have never held a drivers license are going to be driving the trucks? Hope we got insurance! lol
The whole operation does look good tho and they seem to have taken no short cuts with the plant equipment. Nice pics


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## snsdmonkey (23 November 2011)

jancha said:


> Yeah nice address chairman but when's the gold pour expected??




Yeh didn't say anything about it except that they're behind schedule, vague. It's all well and good that you're below budget but so what if you're not going to start producing. Sold out my lot.


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## jancha (23 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Yeh didn't say anything about it except that they're behind schedule, vague. It's all well and good that you're below budget but so what if you're not going to start producing. Sold out my lot.




Why would you want to sell out at this point if your holding?
Any new business starting up has a few hiccups. When it's up and running and established you can reach a decision on selling. I'm holding


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## tech/a (23 November 2011)

jancha said:


> Why would you want to sell out at this point if your holding?




Some of us like to be in stock which is moving.---in the direction in which we are holding.
Its called opportunity cost.
There are many different ways to invest and trade.
Holding or not holding is a personal thing.
Everyone has their reasons and each are right!


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## snsdmonkey (23 November 2011)

jancha said:


> Why would you want to sell out at this point if your holding?
> Any new business starting up has a few hiccups. When it's up and running and established you can reach a decision on selling. I'm holding




Well RED's SP hasn't done much for the month and investor's didn't react much to this either, and it's not going anywhere in a hurry. There are obviously more chances in the near future to buy lower say 19.5c or 20.0c which I will obviously be willing to buy back in. And if I'm wrong then I'm more than happy to just take a $30 brokerage loss and buy in where I left out at 21c.


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## Gringotts Bank (23 November 2011)

My sell is at 1.215 and I'm thinking of moving it.  Market depth looks good.  Solid day.


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## fatsoh (23 November 2011)

you will also notice a review of dividends - as per chairman's address.......

"Directors look forward to receiving the audited
financial accounts for the year to 30 June 2012
in mid-September next year, and being mindful of
the fact that our business has been equity funded,
reviewing the appropriateness of declaring a
maiden dividend."


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## Credfield (23 November 2011)

Been lurking this thread for a while and feel like it's time to put in my 2c.

On a day like today with big falls and with an announcement that one has to say.... was expected, this price movement and buyer interest is really assuring that this company is headed (or expected to head) in the right direction.

As I said, this ann today was probably expected by most people and doesn't really tell us anything we already didn't know or have a good idea about. So when the ann finally comes about the actual opening/gold pour, hopefully we all should see similar upwards movement of the sp 

Thanks everyone that contributed with all the useful info regarding this company.


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## jancha (23 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Well RED's SP hasn't done much for the month and investor's didn't react much to this either, and it's not going anywhere in a hurry. There are obviously more chances in the near future to buy lower say 19.5c or 20.0c which I will obviously be willing to buy back in. And if I'm wrong then I'm more than happy to just take a $30 brokerage loss and buy in where I left out at 21c.




Fair enough snsdmonkey. I personally buy and sell a quarter of my holdings so while its fluctuating between 19c & 21c i'm still making money on it. My personal thoughts on selling all of them on the same basis might see me chasing them at a higher cost than i sold for and thats a good way to give back your profits so at this point when and if it drops back down i'll buy back in with that quarter share i've sold providing all good with RED.


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## Chasero (23 November 2011)

Yep.

Re the announcements, long term shareholders would be very frustrated with red.

Most people are in at share issue price of 17c. (Capital raising at 17c AGAIN did not help).

Delays from the damn weather have annoyed many investors!!

Hence, I expect to see SOME price action. Don't know if it's already taken into account or not (but I doubt it), this company could yet again delay the gold pour.

But when the gold pour announcement comes in, it'll be the first positive announcement in what... 11 years? LOL

My 2 c, could be wrong.


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## Moit (23 November 2011)

Hi all RED club members.

The chairmans address was quite positive, especially the mention of the maiden dividends as fatsoh has just mentioned. Yes i quite liked it. No mention of a gold pour, but dry commissioning last week and wet over the weekend. Id say shes all systems go and the pour is just around a little corner. Maybe no more tomorrow.

Snsdmonkey, I'm with jancha on this one. I couldn't believe you sold out so close to gold pour. And Gringotts, hopefully you changed your mind and pulled your holdings. I hope you were quick, lol. 

Its great to see the 21.5 cents resistance broken, finally. With a bit of luck todays close will paint a pretty picture.
( The pictures in the address are getting prettier by the day, lol. )

Good luck to all holders.

Cheers Moit...


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## dave1234 (23 November 2011)

jancha said:


> Maybe you should write a book on trolling




Given nothing has really happened with the SP of late, I wouldn't call Tech a troll. He has valid points, maybe some holders (I'm one) are too emotional about their stock?


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## Buckfont (23 November 2011)

Hi RED members. 

Yes a positive address, with a few bits and pieces missing But no doubt they`ll appear over the next few days or week with the results of the resolutions and more definitive dates. 

Moit, I`d stop bowing down to the missus like that. Hopefully she`ll regret not allowing you to buy more !!


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## Moit (23 November 2011)

Lol Buck, mate I'm not sure if she regrets it but i certainly do.. 

Was going to buy this morning at 20 cents and stopped myself, ( or did she, ) anyhow might bite the bullet and get in this this arv...


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## jancha (23 November 2011)

dave1234 said:


> Given nothing has really happened with the SP of late, I wouldn't call Tech a troll. He has valid points, maybe some holders (I'm one) are too emotional about their stock?




I didn't call him a troll.....said he should write a book on it.
Tech does have some valid points but he has no interest in the stock or this thead other than stirring. Everyone has different reasons for buying a stock and Tech has said many times he has no interests in RED so why keep posting on it.
I don't know about you but i dont get attached to any stock.
If I felt RED was over valued and extremely high risked i wouldn't be in it.


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## Chasero (23 November 2011)

Is today the day red consolidates?

Did the vote pass?


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## snsdmonkey (23 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Is today the day red consolidates?
> 
> Did the vote pass?




The vote passed.


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## Skip1jz (23 November 2011)

I attended the meeting.

They are running ore through now, gold pour next week if my memory serves me correct, took alot of information in and no notes 

Consolidation was heavily in favour for.


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## theartglasshouse (23 November 2011)

I have been in and out of this stock over the past 6 weeks for some quick profits. I will wait till the consolidation and first gold pour before I buy back in on this one (maybe). Depending on where I see the direction going. 

I agree, tech/a should bow out of this thread since he has no interest in this stock (at the moment)...I guess ASF is going slow at the moment and he needs to type something to feel needed or gain some more 'followers'...anyways...will be interesting to see where RED5 is heading in the new year!


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## tech/a (23 November 2011)

theartglasshouse said:


> I have been in and out of this stock over the past 6 weeks for some quick profits. I will wait till the consolidation and first gold pour before I buy back in on this one (maybe). Depending on where I see the direction going.
> 
> I agree, tech/a should bow out of this thread since he has no interest in this stock (at the moment)...I guess ASF is going slow at the moment and he needs to type something to feel needed or gain some more 'followers'...anyways...will be interesting to see where RED5 is heading in the new year!




Seeing you are all so accommodating I will be sure to update the technical view from time to time.

There are some savvy traders amongst the fundamental investors
Slipping in and out for a few cents excellent.


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## Moit (23 November 2011)

Hi all RED members. 

And hi to Credfield. We are glad you could join us. Do you hold?? It seams as though you do. Obviously RED is a much talked about thread. There is a lot to get your head around, but at the end of the day, where are about to pour gold. Welcome...

Tomorrow is a test !! The consolidation has been approved. The last time and the first time the consolidation was mentioned, RED'S SP went down about 2 cents i believe. ( Please correct me if I'm wrong .) Obviously the major insto's have approved it, its if they support it, that matters. ) And if us smaller retail investors back it up as well, then we should see similar gains tomorrow. If of course the market dis-approve like they reacted the last time then we are in for a drop of current prices. Keeping in mind that tomorrow is the last day of trading on a PRE-CONSOLIDATED basis. 

I know one thing, i didn't get in today, but most certainly will tomorrow...

Mmm, interesting times lay ahead. I guess you have to be in it to win it. I believe the next couple of days is your last chance, if not tomorrow. As Skip has mentioned could have a gold pour next week..

And Beatle, where are you. We are waiting for your report on the AGM. Can you please stop sipping on RED wine, with the honchos for just a moment and post on this thread, please, lol !! We/ I would like your in-take, cheers mate.

Moit.


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## mardo (23 November 2011)

Hi Moit, Dont worry about it A.G.M. was a hoot. Best one since 2003  from my distance memory banks.There is NOT a lot of downside from here on and management have everything in good control. Just wait and see where we are in six months time.


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## Starcraftmazter (24 November 2011)

Dangit, I knew I should have bought in a 0195 a couple of days ago 

Stock moved faster than i expected today and i wasn't around much 

Oh well, we'll see if there's a pullback, not really willing to bid up to 0215 at this stage, maybe if it moves with volume tomorrow. But I think it's far more likely there will be a pullback.

Happy to hear news of consolidation, from a fundamental perspective, you can imagine that once it happens foreign investors could start a rally in RED. Then on the other hand, perhaps if they are of the opinion that the AUD will drop against the USD in the near term, they may well hold out to make their purchases - and this in my view would be fairly reasonable, so it's not really set in stone that this stock will rise immediately after the consolidation.


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## beatle (24 November 2011)

Hi All RED holders, oh I have got a headache, lol! Sorry for the delayed reply, you gotta realise I'm not as young as I was and yesterday was an amazing day catching up with a lot of guys I hadn't seen in quite a while, and with a few other meetings held at the same function room (Celtic Club, which has a licence!)) during the day I now have a slight hangover (but I didn't have a red wine Moit, just to blend with some of my former colleagues, lol!).

Yes I agree with some of the comments of others who attended the meeting or noted points re the Chairman's address in ASF posts. The meeting was most informative, some guys asked a lot of questions and of course CJ and GE were very happy to accomodate with their open answers (as usual!). I wouldn't say there was a huge number of attendees, maybe around 20 or so, some in suits (Petra Securities analyst amongst them - he represents a lot of the various fund managers form an Australian context).  Where to start....

1. Yes the first gold pour will be within the next week - just a small pour commissioning the gravity circuit - don't expect large stacks of gold in this and the following first CIL pour ie the low grade ore (left over from Suricon mining phase many years ago) is being used to commission the SAG mill and crushing circuit and it is being put through the first few CIL tanks (filling with water introduced from the mostly dewatered pit). At the same time ore from the small slot is being mined and delivered on the ROM pad in readiness for the first real ore production. The first (again small!!!) CIL gold pour will occur soon thereafter, within the next 2 weeks, once they have sufficient gold on carbon. 

2. As has been noted in past posts, the commissioning has been going on for a short while and no major hiccups have occurred. Its now just ironing out the inevitable teething problems which is common practise, but with all the vendor reps onsite to assist there is no indication that any significant problems are affecting the processing facility in any way.

3. The mine grade control process has only just been established, utilising a combination of blast hole cuttings sample plus vertical trenching and there are no indications of any problems. The mine material movement has been around 30% above budget in most weeks over the past few months and thus the earthworks contractor has now got all equipment working efficiently with excess capacity (again there was some teething problems when they first commenced mining of waste many months ago but that is now behind them). I spoke with Mark Milazzo (the mining engineer on the board) and he was happy with the procedures that he has observed, both in the mining and grade control areas. He emphasised to me that he wants to make sure that all the areas of the operation, such as mine accesses, inpit areas, plant areas and facilities are all completely finished so that it assists in maintaining a good working attitude by all operators etc).

4. During the development stage RED employed up to 1,500 workers, predominantly from the local communities, and the majority of workers have been Filipinos, and it has been a careful process of making sure that the locals are well represented. During mining over the next 11 or 12 years (those were the number of years referred to, and not 10 years!) there will be around 500 workers onsite. Again mostly those permanent workers are from the local community. Yes, it was commented that 5 women who had never had even a car drivers licence are driving trucks - ahhh! But I have spoken to Greg in the past about this whilst onsite, and he assured me that the rigorous training program and testing separates those with the right credentials for operating the heavy equipment. And as was pointed out, so far after 5 million odd hours there has not been 1 lost time injury (fingers crossed as I type that!). RED continues to prioritise its safety and environmental record, as its all about being able to gain the acceptance of the local community. (I did have a quiet chat about that article Hugh_Jarzz referred to earlier, and GE confirmed that not only was it highly inaccurate it doesn't reflect in the true views of the local communities - I certainly agree with his point from what I have observed personally on the various past trips to site that I have had!).

5. Regarding exploration, again GE emphasised that the Manila laboratories are a major issue going forward. There were 2 labs but those have now been merged, with the result that there is simply no capacity to efficiently service all the exploration companies within the Philippines (I am not referring to the onsite mining/processing type assays that are serviced by RED's own lab onsite). Thus RED remains constrained with others for their exploration assays. There was a question asked about Mapawa and it appears that the exploration for the time being will remain on Siana (assisting resource extensions) and some of the southern targets. At this stage Mapawa is being left for a new program yet to be devised. Certainly it remains a priority but it won't be pursued for the time being.

6. An updated reserves statement, that are expected to follow from the recent resource upgrade, are not expected to be announced for 2 - 3 months. Thus in the interim the mine will follow the base case schedule as much as possible, utilising the US$650/oz pit shell, but noting that in due course the pit delimiter will be the US$900/oz pit shell. This will have the affect of requiring further cutbacks of the currently planned pit limits, but this won't occur during the next few months until the new reserves outline approved. 

7. All indications of the mining to date suggests that the operating costs should be within cooee of past estimates. And noting that the local Filipino workforce, who are paid above the minimum levels for similar work elsewhere in Philippines, will assist the operation with tight cost control.

8. Regarding RED's theme of "The Board strategy is to focus on the development
of Siana" is yet to be replaced but in the coming months as production begins and ramps up (estimated to take 2 months to get to base case levels but noting the new SAG mill has a higher throughput rating than the previous mill, from 800,000 tpa up to 1.1 mtpa) the board will reconsider its opportunities. Apparently GE is seeing a lot of opportunities come across his desk on a daily basis within the general area and elsewhere in the Philippines, noting again that RED has demonstrated its capacity to get things through the rigorous (bureaucratic, lol) Philippines approval process, but RED is yet to decide whether it might also take on completely new directions in exploration/mining. Also note that RED is very much aware that it will possibly benefit to the extent of around US$80 - 100 million pa and it doesn't want to lose the opportunity of providing a reasonable dividend as soon as possible - in line with the insto's that it is seeking to bring on board due to the consolidation.

9. I did also seek out some private views of various directors about the consolidation. And whilst there may be some initial reduction in share price once consolidation occurs (yes Moit you are correct what happened on the first day of that announcement) its also possible that since the consolidation was clearly voted in by the big insto's they might let the share price fall just to take up more stock cheaply! So beware if you decide to sell out in the coming days with an aim to get back in subsequently at a lower price. Of course last nights sell off on the DOW complicates things, but I can't see RED coming off too much tomorrow once consolidation occurs. And as I say, its a danger if you do want to stay with RED for the longer term.

10. Mgm1a I did ask privately about NPA etc, and once again I was assured that Siana/RED is certainly in a very different position to Taganito, in many different respects. And the Japanese group certainly did have warnings, commencing some years ago. Their environmental record, noting that they strip mine the top lateritic layer after removal of forest, the tailings, etc are problematic and certainly very different to Siana, and also the employment/community programs are very different. RED has a very community oriented policy and remains central to all its activities and involvement. That is what I have also noted on each of my past visits.

Well I have covered as much as I can remember. Oh yes, I understand the official mine opening won't happen until after the new year, possibly as late as March due to the various holidays and activities that will occur during the next few months.

I remain (and probably more supportive now) very positive that RED will get its re-rating as I have expected for a while. But since RED is undergoing the consolidation, the ramp up over the next couple of months etc, maybe the full re-rating won't happen until within the next few months. But that re-rating will be maybe significantly more than I had expected if those second tier insto's start to buy in once it becomes clear that RED is making some serious money each month!


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## beatle (24 November 2011)

Further re the AGM. I did forget to mention that I spoke with the Chairman re the lack of PR and particularly with regard to the last few weeks at a critical time when we expected more news. He was of the view that its a fine balance between informing the market on a continuous basis when the project is slowly evolving as commissioning proceeds. He does concede that PR on the whole has some way to go and that the board may make some decisions in that regard in the coming months. Unfortunately I didn't get the complete answer that I sought on this key area, but he recognises that there is room for improvement.


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## hugh_jarzz (24 November 2011)

Thanks Beatle....as usual, a detailed and thoughtful summary. I trust Greg is not just fobbing off any unpleasantness relating to the supposed dissatisfaction of some of the local landowners. I guess if there were any sort of PR unit, these issues could be better addressed, countering some of these supposed "inaccuracies." I guess it's the last thing management want to contend with at present! 
Good luck!


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## snsdmonkey (24 November 2011)

Moit said:


> Snsdmonkey, I'm with jancha on this one. I couldn't believe you sold out so close to gold pour.




I don't see RED going anywhere in a hurry today? :


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## ChrisJH (24 November 2011)

When does the consolidation occur and take effect?


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## Moit (24 November 2011)

Hi all RED club members.

Beatle id just like to thank you for your in-depth and well summarized report of the agm. It was great feed back and I'm sure all of us here on the RED thread appreciated it as much as i did. So why the headache mate ?? lol.

Snsdmonkey you are probably right, re, not going anywhere in a hurry, well maybe not for a few days anyway. I'm still confident ( even though it may be small, ) of a gold pour next week. We are nearing the producer status by the day and soon we will be making GOLD and selling it by the bucket load... Not to mention, making a motza. Which of course will reflect back on to the SP and the shareholders.

Chris, welcome to the consolidation. It takes effect as of tomorrow the 25th. For my own sake i topped up late this arv. (Sorry Beatle, sorry wifey ),lol. In fact i bought some of the 1 000 000 that was dumped on close.

Anyhow, looks like we open tomorrow at $2.05. Crikey that will take some getting use to... 

Thanks again Beatle, you covered everything i had concerns about.

Cheers Moit, good luck to all holders.


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## Buckfont (24 November 2011)

I`ll second those sentiments moit.

 beatle has been very informative over the years as a go between amongst the heirachy and us humble holders. I am very appreciative for his info when there was no info and his belief in this company.

I am heavily overweight in RED and I believe in the upside too. Thanks beatle 

Cheers everyone


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## theartglasshouse (24 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Seeing you are all so accommodating I will be sure to update the technical view from time to time.
> 
> There are some savvy traders amongst the fundamental investors
> Slipping in and out for a few cents excellent.




It's a bit of fun during the boring market time and my lack of time to follow other stocks at the moment...have made some good profits with some quick trades in it, if you can time it right...


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## ChrisJH (24 November 2011)

Thanks moit.

Dumb questions - how do I know how many shares I have now? And how do I calculate what I would refer to now as my buy price?


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## beatle (25 November 2011)

Hi All, and I'm most thankful for your kind words Moit, Buckfont, Hugh_Jarz. Actually I do it now as I enjoy keeping in touch with you all, and it keeps an old man feeling involved! As for the headache Moit, I had a couple of drinks during the day and it obviously got the better of me (I don't drink much more than the odd RED these days!).

As for your holding ChrisJH, your holding is 1/10 th of what you had, ie if you bought 50,000 shares then you will hold 5,000 shares as of tomorrow (the first day of trading on a consolidated price). And your buy price is therefore the total cost divided by the number of shares you hold post-consolidation, ie if you bought solely at 21 cents then your buy-in price is $2.10 per consolidated share.

I will be looking at the next few trading days with interest, from the point of view of:
1. How will the market act initially;
2. How long will it take for RED management to put out some positive news (I recall some years ago they were very energetic with the news when they sought a rather large capital raising - or is it the cynic in me, lol!);
3. How long will it take before the substantial holders take the shares back up to the share price it last traded at pre-consolidation, ie since it closed at 20.5 cents today assumedly it will fall slightly below that converted to $2.05. Will it trade appreciably below that in the first few days and will it be taken up to that level of $2.05 soon due to insto's involvement or take a news release to get it back up there!

I am thinking of buying a few more in the coming days if it comes off a bit as I am damn sure it won't be down at this level for long! Its even a good trading position if it goes below the $2.00 level IMO as for sure there will be news maybe as soon as Mon or Tues next week of the first gravity pour, and within a week or so later news of the first CIL pour. Thus I'm going to be watching it like a hawke! 

From your sign-off Hugh_Jarz I get a feeling you have bailed out completely, is that correct? Maybe you are waiting for a slight dip to get back in if you are out as of now? What's your view?


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## mgm1a (25 November 2011)

beatle - thanks for all detail re AGM. The hint on divie surprising so early, not the fact they can afford ...i just thought a buy-back may have been better. Glad they are aware of need to seek new direction beyond Siana and that (perhaps) they being careful. The board meetings are probably very interesting discussing on whether to look beyond Phillipines or not. Mapawa being in back seat ..I thought they got the cap raising so they could ring-fence funds to do more there.

Well, looks like i have been totally wrong to exit most of holding on rebel risk.....RED gone up 10% since & I plunked most funds into PRU which down 22% in 11 trading days. Pretty gutted.


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## beatle (25 November 2011)

Hi Mgm1a, sorry to hear about your PRU investment, and lets hope your residual RED will make some headway for you soon!

As to the possibility of a RED dividend, CJ made it clear that of course the board needs to look at the financial result in Sept 2012 for the first 6 months of production before making that decision. But he made the point that his feedback from insto's, both the second tier funds that he believed would now have an interest in RED due to the reconstructed price being above pennydreadful price (smoke and mirrors!) is that if they set out early to provide a dividend then that again would separate RED from most gold equities that tend to pour all their surplus funds back into the ground, and forget about the shareholders. If Siana performs at base case forecast then RED has the opportunity to provide a reasonable dividend plus still embark on growth through exploration organically (including Mapawa) plus some additional business development.

RED price continues to remain way below its implied NPV valuation of Siana, thats the reason its not going the same way as most other gold equities at the moment - certainly most seem to be getting hammered despite the aussie gold price remaining very attractive. But the next few days might provide some buy in if the price dips due to the initial consolidation price being strange to some investors! Seems like it could also be a slow time unless Matthews tries to stir the market, but any sane investor surely wouldn't want to tip shares in recklessly at this stage (noting he still is a substantial holder).


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## jah008 (25 November 2011)

Hi guys
Just wondering with the consolidation if the stock will trade today?


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## reeftip (25 November 2011)

Look - up code
REDDA


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## jah008 (25 November 2011)

reeftip said:


> Look - up code
> REDDA




Thanks heaps!


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## Moit (25 November 2011)

Hi reeftip, lol, i would have been sitting here looking at a blank screen till December 9th. But have been in touch with ASX and have been informed that it will stay like this as a deferred settlement until the 9th, and then go back to normal ticker code RED. 

Thanks mate.

Cheers Moit.


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## beatle (25 November 2011)

Hi Moit, so long as few people know how to sell RED due to the change in code we surely won't be going down too soon, lol! 

But seriously I'm surprised that few are offering to sell at even the current level around $2.05, perhaps this is a good thing. The only issue is the trading liquidity has dried up and a few trader types might want to exit just to get funds for other purposes, and that could force the price down artificially. I'll get a few more if it goes down below $2.00 but its not going to be a signficant purchase for me now. I'm hoping we get a stream of announcements in the coming weeks confirming the success of commissioning etc. And of course thats likely from what we know now.


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## jancha (25 November 2011)

beatle said:


> Hi Moit, so long as few people know how to sell RED due to the change in code we surely won't be going down too soon, lol!
> 
> But seriously I'm surprised that few are offering to sell at even the current level around $2.05, perhaps this is a good thing. The only issue is the trading liquidity has dried up and a few trader types might want to exit just to get funds for other purposes, and that could force the price down artificially. I'll get a few more if it goes down below $2.00 but its not going to be a signficant purchase for me now. I'm hoping we get a stream of announcements in the coming weeks confirming the success of commissioning etc. And of course thats likely from what we know now.




Hi Beatle. I cant offer to sell atm because it's showing that i dont hold any Redda to sell. (not that i'm going to sell any at this point in time) Maybe thats why there's so few selling?


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## Moit (25 November 2011)

Hi jancha, now this may sound silly. But try editing your REDDA portfolio. ( ie, how many shares you hold and your average price. Keeping in mind your new consolidated prices. So if your average price used to be 13 cents, well now it will be $1.30. And of course your shares will now be divided by 10. ) 

I haven't bought or sold any today, ( in fact never, ever sold a RED share yet, lol, ) but I'm sure if you do the above, you would be able to.

I hope this helps.

Regards Moit.


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## jancha (25 November 2011)

Moit said:


> Hi jancha, now this may sound silly. But try editing your REDDA portfolio. ( ie, how many shares you hold and your average price. Keeping in mind your new consolidated prices. So if your average price used to be 13 cents, well now it will be $1.30. And of course your shares will now be divided by 10. )
> 
> I haven't bought or sold any today, ( in fact never, ever sold a RED share yet, lol, ) but I'm sure if you do the above, you would be able to.
> 
> ...



Cheers for that Moit but as you i have no intentions of selling either yet. Was answering Beatles point about why no ones selling. I'd imagine by the end of the day E-trade would have sorted it out and adjusted my portfolio.


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## Chasero (25 November 2011)

Low volume today. (69k ->690k)

Probably because very little people have figured out how to sell RED or buy RED LOL.

I searched for RED and showed up empty. How would I know to change to REDDA if it wasn't for this thread.


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## reeftip (25 November 2011)

If need to do a trade and are having trouble -
Contact your brokerage firm and ask them to do a manual trade for you.


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## mgm1a (25 November 2011)

tiny volume, few trades...obviously the insto volume gone to dust - their bots probably weren't programmed with the new code!...interesting to see the "true" trades for a stock.


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## badger7 (26 November 2011)

what a way to start the day...red5 up 900%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RED.AX&ql=1

only to discover a reverse split


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## Rick64 (26 November 2011)

badger7 said:


> what a way to start the day...red5 up 900%
> http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RED.AX&ql=1
> 
> only to discover a reverse split




lol 1 year forecast 35c


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## Buckfont (26 November 2011)

badger7 said:


> what a way to start the day...red5 up 900%
> http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RED.AX&ql=1
> 
> only to discover a reverse split




Lol, and a MC of 2.63B. Terrifically accurate figures here from Yahoo and the Reuters 12 page report costs 50 bucks. Sheesh


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## hugh_jarzz (26 November 2011)

beatle said:


> Hi All, and I'm most thankful for your kind words Moit, Buckfont, Hugh_Jarz. Actually I do it now as I enjoy keeping in touch with you all, and it keeps an old man feeling involved! As for the headache Moit, I had a couple of drinks during the day and it obviously got the better of me (I don't drink much more than the odd RED these days!).
> 
> As for your holding ChrisJH, your holding is 1/10 th of what you had, ie if you bought 50,000 shares then you will hold 5,000 shares as of tomorrow (the first day of trading on a consolidated price). And your buy price is therefore the total cost divided by the number of shares you hold post-consolidation, ie if you bought solely at 21 cents then your buy-in price is $2.10 per consolidated share.
> 
> ...




Correct Beatle...just lost interest, and was also offered an opportunity elsewhere which I was happy to accept. It doesn't mean that I don't find RED an attractive proposition, just that I see better value elsewhere. As you know, I've been involved with RED for quite some time so it was a bit of a wrench to bite the bullet and sell but my ongoing reservations about the quality of management were the clincher for me, together with the rumblings in the background, (conveniently pooh-poohed by Greg!) of local disenchantment. That's not to say I won't get back into the stock at some point, but, you know as well as I that had we said 2 years ago that by December 2011, the gold price would be close to $US1800 and that the first gold pour was imminent, we both would have been expecting a price closer to 50c than 20c, (or $5 and $2 in the brave new world)... it has just been a continual disappointment for me, and it was time to let go and get a life! The actual size of the project, without new reserves, doesn't really grab the attention of bigger players so I struggle to picture any acquisition scenario. Whatever, I hope it goes to $10, post consolidation, for your sake alone, as you have been an extremely loyal supporter. I just wish the board had been as loyal to its longstanding shareholders, as you have been to them!! Good luck old feller and also to the other RED followers.


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## ScotchParty (28 November 2011)

Looks like BoA have bailed...


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## Starcraftmazter (28 November 2011)

ScotchParty said:


> Looks like BoA have bailed...




Do you want to elaborate on that?


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## snsdmonkey (28 November 2011)

Hating the price movements at the moment. Consolidation has done nothing for the liquidity at all.


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## beatle (29 November 2011)

Hi All, great to see RED move up today, but even more excited to see, when it finally comes, that RED has poured its first small gold bar! I hope its in the next couple of days, even though I can't see it being a big bar since they have been processing only low grade ore from past Suricon mining days long gone by!

Many thanks to Hugh_Jarz and lets hope you can see a reason to get back into RED once its promotions group picks up the pace.

The commentary about liquidity may not be all about the consolidation, even though I am sure some holders don't want to go through the trouble of arranging to have their holdings made available as REDDA - but there maybe some waiting on the sidelines wanting to hear of some project achievements rather than making a decision to either buy or sell. 

The gold price is also helping things along at the moment, but independently I can see why RED should be able to command increased market attention soon once the gold production starts flowing.


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## isildur1 (29 November 2011)

Hi, all RED members.
I figured out how to sell and buy easily REDDA.
I am using E*TRADA platform by Stgeorge.
You just need to find REDDA security through qoute and then just click buy/sell enter REDDA code and # of shares. This way you sell or buy RED shares. 
No need to mess with your trader or whatsever.


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## jah008 (29 November 2011)

Thanks beatle for you constant updates and information about the stock. I was just wondering if you knew if there was going to be another official valuation of the stock done at some point ?


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## Sapling (29 November 2011)

Hi all

Have noticed my comsec web site indicates an ann. has been made but will not allow me access. Anyone know details


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## beatle (29 November 2011)

Sapling said:


> Hi all
> 
> Have noticed my comsec web site indicates an ann. has been made but will not allow me access. Anyone know details




Hi Sapling, its been a couple of hours since you posted that, I haven't seen any news re RED at various sites. 

Jah008, when you refer to an official valuation done, I presume you mean a broker valuation, or are you referring to something else? As you probably are aware, RED is on the watch list of a few retail brokers, such as HTML Wilson, Evans and Partners, BellDirect, and they put out updates from time to time. On the institutional side we have Petra Securities (more related to Australian based instos) and Casimir Capital (more related to overseas instos) who also put out valuation updates. 

Naturally its disappointing at the moment that RED doesn't go out so actively to work the retail market more vigorously, which would bring in a lot more retail brokers putting out research reports.

But my thought is that since RED has three big events happening in the next couple of months, ie first gold, followed by a ramped up gold production, and an update to the ore reserve base, each of these will have a profound impact on valuations for Siana and RED's share price. Thus any new updates due out before those events coming to pass in the coming month will be less credible and subject to fairly significant updating once these unknowns of first gold production and the ramp up schedule, and ore reserves updates are announced.


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## karky003 (29 November 2011)

Form 605 Ceasing to bee a substantial shareholder BOA 
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20111128/pdf/422whttjs850k8.pdf 

Change in Directors Interest 
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20111129/pdf/422xk16rv44wym.pdf 

While it can be confusing finding these announcements through Etrade/Comsec etc you can always refer to ASX.com under code "redda"

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=RED 

or alternatively the announcements are posted on the red website 

http://www.red5limited.com

Hmm one day left to pour the gold, would be nice to get an announcement tomorrow


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## tech/a (29 November 2011)

> Hmm one day left to pour the gold, would be nice to get an announcement tomorrow




Nothing is going to happen.
At best price will do nothing
At worst It will drop.

As I've said before I'd be surprised if initial production hasn't been factored into price.
Charts certainly not showing an influx of punters expecting quick gains in he coming weeks


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## karky003 (29 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Nothing is going to happen.
> At best price will do nothing
> At worst It will drop.
> 
> ...




I have to agree with you Tech, i don't expect any major price movement on pour, but it is a milestone and an indication for the long term holders that there is progress and cash flow should be around the corner. The price will only move once its established that gold can be produced at forecast cost and to schedule, or through positive drill results.


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## Starcraftmazter (30 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Hating the price movements at the moment. Consolidation has done nothing for the liquidity at all.




Mate, I would wait until it's finalised, putting in orders on this is not as trivial through the consolidation...I even had to ring my broker today.

Speaking of which, I sold at 2.15 today - pretty damn happy, another little profit. Will be looking to re-enter at lower sp - but I can honestly say it's impossible to judge the stock as it's trading now, there is so little liquidity compared to even the lowest we've had for a month. Need to wait until after the consolidation is fully through (and probably 3 days after that) until we can see what it will really trade like.




karky003 said:


> Change in Directors Interest
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20111129/pdf/422xk16rv44wym.pdf




This one is actually nothing, it's just to do with the share consolidation in the holdings of someone's spouse - no shares bought or sold.


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## beatle (30 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Nothing is going to happen.
> At best price will do nothing
> At worst It will drop.
> 
> ...




I presume you refer to the price in your opinion doing nothing Tech/a, rather than actual things happening onsite at Siana. If they produce a small bar of gold at the start and the price does nothing, its still "the small step for man, a giant leap for mankind" sort of activity, that is more relevant for me as a knowledgeable shareholder of RED.

At this stage of Siana's development, every small move forward gives confidence that Siana is working as a gold recovery plant. Thus whilst its not the big statement that hopefully RED will produce about 1.5 tonnes of gold this current financial year at a whopping profit, its the fact that the operation is moving inline with expectations at this early stage.

The first small bar of gold might be a bit too subtle for some posting here, and maybe its not relevant for those who have no interest to either hold any shares or seek to buy any. Each to his own I guess!


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## snsdmonkey (30 November 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Mate, I would wait until it's finalised, putting in orders on this is not as trivial through the consolidation...I even had to ring my broker today.




Haha I'm just being sour because I didn't put that REDDA money into GCN


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## Chasero (30 November 2011)

tech/a said:


> Nothing is going to happen.
> At best price will do nothing
> At worst It will drop.
> 
> ...




But wouldn't you think the risk of a delay in the gold pour would be factored in?

At best, price may rise 5-15% imo.

At worse, price may drop by same token, maybe further.


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## investorpaul (30 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> But wouldn't you think the risk of a delay in the gold pour would be factored in?
> 
> At best, price may rise 5-15% imo.
> 
> At worse, price may drop by same token, maybe further.




I said this ages ago, at which point a lot of people agree, but it seems like everyone has forgotten again.

Look at companies that have moved into production in the past. They almost never run hard when production commences (because it is was already expected) and people then turn their attention to where or not they will hit their production targets.

Once you get one or two quarters under your belt and management confirm that they can run a mine profitably you will get a re-rate.


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## silence (30 November 2011)

A bit of movement at the station today.
At one stage I saw a spread of $2.12-$2.19 and it seems the buyers didn't want to wait..

Bit of a sad volume though.

At least the total bids of 40000 shares at $2.18 is more than the whole day's volume so far, so we've got some solid support there 


(Disclosure: I hold)


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## beatle (30 November 2011)

Hi Silence, good to see your post (and not being silent, lol!).

I agree that there is movement at the station and its a shame that its on very low volume. I have been thinking a lot about this the past couple of days, and think that we are probably at the transition in terms of the sort of investors who will now become more active on the trading side of RED.

I would assume that the usual day traders won't be so active now that some of the volatility may reduce somewhat at these higher consolidated prices. Thus there is likely to be an exiting of these sorts of participants (I'm happy to be corrected by someone who is a daytrader and who doesn't agree with my thoughts on this).

I believe that with the consolidation there are probably those who don't like to trade the higher priced shares (in fact I have rarely held mining stocks that are priced above a dollar, although I don't shy away from the likes of the banks and telecommunications stocks priced in the dollars). And additionally with the consolidation not entirely sorted out in terms of REDDA vs RED it also complicates the trading out by current holders who don't have a large number of shares. 

And as InvestorPaul points out RED won't be commanding a complete re-rating prior to a couple of quarters gold production performance demonstrates their longer term share price worthiness, thus the newly sought second tier insto's that would also want to know the gold production track record before investing is still ahead of RED.

Therefore thinking through those dynamics I guess we are at the cross roads, and perhaps we are going to be in this trading process for few more weeks at the very least. But unlike Tech/a and InvestorPaul, I do believe that for those that are prepared to take a view that Siana will come online close to Base Case Feasibility Study performance levels, which has of course some associated risks with it (and I accept those risks with my own investment in RED), this is possibly the ideal time to beat the new insto's into RED. Of course though you can't get much stock if you are seeking a bigger holding.

I do have a confidence that Siana will come online successfully, the plant looks great, the mining is already at levels ahead of budget, and the investors involved should support the stock once the positive news comes out. Of course the wild card is Matthews, has he stopped selling for now?

By the way InvestorPaul, I don't disagree with your view entirely about the re-rating coming about once we have a couple of quarters performance, but its all about relative value compared to NPV. RED has been so discounted that it has got a long way to go before true NPV (depending upon your future gold view outlook of course) is achieved. And my view is that once we do get supporting confirmation of gold production information RED will certainly re-rate beyond that NPV valuation.


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## tech/a (30 November 2011)

> But unlike Tech/a




Tech/a is not saying dont buy it.
All he is saying is that at this time from a technical view point HE wont be buying it!
He may at sometime buy it
He may at NOT buy it.
Since Ive been posting price has risen 4c (In effect).
MML did that in an hr today.
I trade Momentum.When I find it.
If it comes to RED Ill be on it.


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## beatle (30 November 2011)

Originally Posted by tech/a

Nothing is going to happen.
 At best price will do nothing
 At worst It will drop.

"

Wrong!!!




tech/a said:


> Tech/a is not saying dont buy it.
> All he is saying is that at this time from a technical view point HE wont be buying it!
> He may at sometime buy it
> He may at NOT buy it.
> ...




MML is currently up 3.58%, RED is up 6.67%. Doh!!!

(Its all fun!)


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## Chasero (30 November 2011)

beatle said:


> Originally Posted by tech/a
> 
> Nothing is going to happen.
> At best price will do nothing
> ...




Yep, up 7% today on pending gold pour annoucement.

Definitely outshone other gold stocks today.

Today is the LAST day of November. If no announcement tonight I will be a bit worried tomorrow =(


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## tech/a (30 November 2011)

A good day for RED.
There is very low volume indicating small players (retail).
Great support at $2.10
With 30% traded at open.

Only 170000 traded all day.
But going up on low volume indicates no supply so sellers not interested.


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## Buckfont (30 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Yep, up 7% today on pending gold pour annoucement.
> 
> Definitely outshone other gold stocks today.
> 
> Today is the LAST day of November. If no announcement tonight I will be a bit worried tomorrow =(




Why should that be a worry?


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## silence (30 November 2011)

It shouldn't be because they already said it would be delayed didn't they?


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## theartglasshouse (30 November 2011)

Agree with tech/a on this one...

I am out till at least Feb 2012 to see what happens. The range it is trading in is still the same as pre consolidation so I still see that as of little interest. Not willing to risk capital on this till production starts and if I can see that they can continue momentum in there operations. 

Actually, at the moment I see it as a little over valued. If it goes under $2, I might do a move in and out. If it doesn't, no big one...


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## beatle (30 November 2011)

Actually I'm starting to think that RED may have reconsidered putting out a release on a small gravity product gold bar, and decided instead to wait for the pouring of a more significant CIL product bar that will confirm to the market that the entire process is now in working order. I don't think that lack of an announcement at this stage is of a concern, bearing in mind that the low grade feed used to get the gravity bar probably has limited gravity amenable gold within the ore. (Thats why I have continually referred to the first bar being a small bar!).

And of course since today is the last day of November there could still be such an announcement tomorrow relating to 30 Nov production (even as I say its not so important overall to the process).

If on the other hand they wait till the CIL gold pour for the announcement then they manage to let the information out at a time when RED is likely to be reinstated (from REDDA on 8 Dec). That would certainly give an oomph to the share price at at time when it could otherwise come under pressure!


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## beatle (1 December 2011)

theartglasshouse said:


> Agree with tech/a on this one...
> 
> Actually, at the moment I see it as a little over valued. If it goes under $2, I might do a move in and out. If it doesn't, no big one...




Valuation of RED, based on Siana, at this point in time is conjectural. Certainly it is not valued at full value of the NPV related to Siana cash flows on Base Case numbers at present under any gold price within cooee of current gold price, and then its an arguable point to what level you should discount from that NPV valuation. And of course with gold price another point of contention there will always be considerable variation in people's personal valuation. 

BASED solely on NPV, and on current US$ gold price and Au/US $ exchange rate, then RED is currently trading at approximately 50% discount to that NPV valuation!!! AND with the knowledge that RED is due to point out a revised ore reserve that obviously will provide a favourable outcome ABOVE the current base case valuation, I can see an argument for RED trading at around 50 cps to meet NPV, notwithstanding that most low cost, long life gold operations tending to trade at a premium to that NPV when in steady state gold production ie a price above 50 cps!!!

So you can consider the RED share price being over-valued if you want to say that it should be trading at a big discount to NPV, but I for one, of course as a big supporter of RED, will completely disagree with that argument! I believe RED has got a long way to go before it can be argued as to fair value! And if we don't see that value within the next month subject to gold production coming online within cooee of forecast, then RED will definitely come under the microscope of other opportunistic gold producers (not the big producers, but the mid-tier producers). But i don't think it will get to that, I think the share price will continue to move up, in fits and starts as happens all the time of course.

If gold continues running up RED will get a bonus sooner than i had thought...


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## beatle (1 December 2011)

beatle said:


> ....
> 
> BASED solely on NPV, and on current US$ gold price and Au/US $ exchange rate, then RED is currently trading at approximately 50% discount to that NPV valuation!!! AND with the knowledge that RED is due to point out a revised ore reserve that obviously will provide a favourable outcome ABOVE the current base case valuation, I can see an argument for RED trading at around 50 cps to meet NPV, notwithstanding that most low cost, long life gold operations tending to trade at a premium to that NPV when in steady state gold production ie a price above 50 cps!!!
> 
> ...




And of course I woke up far too early when I posted that last valuation - I am yet to change the number of shares on issue in my cash flow model, thus naturally I meant a valuation of $5.00 per share not 50 cps (which is pre-consolidation)!

I can see a case where RED will climb appreciably above $5.00 per share once steady state is achieved with gold production at close to forecast Base Case BFS levels (at forecast opex).


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## beatle (1 December 2011)

Quite an amazing start to the entire market today, in line with overseas markets. Its fantastic to see that the big overseas central banks have lined up to collectively print money, thus reinstating gold's unique position as an international store of value. And that's reflected with aussie gold shares this morning, and yet if you see the aussie dollar gold price in fact the gold price has fallen away in the past couple of days due to a strengthening aussie dollar:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=1W

RED is now testing a key resistance level at $2.30 and again its started out with virtually no volume. RED has under-performed the general gold market though this morning, and I'm sure that until we get reassurance of how the operation goes with the pouring of first gold the move up will be slow.


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## Moit (1 December 2011)

Hi all RED club members.

Hi Beatle, great RED analysis as always. And yes i was getting a little confused with the pre-consolidated talk you were giving, lol. Though i must admit, i am warming to it. But still refer back to pre-consolidation days as far as volume, market depth, share price and so forth. I believe once we are actually trading as RED again, ( DEC 8th ) we will begin to see the original, average market depth appear as clearly and strongly as it once was. ( As in 200 to buy and 200 to sell ), instead of 23 and 23... 

Though the consolidation hasn't had any real effect on RED at the moment, the sp has had a continued rise ( about 11% in two consecutive trading days. ) I put this down to pure anticipation of an up-coming announcement. We as holders are waiting for that ONE big announcement. THE GOLD POUR ! Geez it would be great to see a photo in an Ann, of the first GOLD bar, stipulating this is the first of many gold bars to be produced at the Siana Gold Mine. Or am i only dreaming ?? 

Anyhow, we are sitting pretty at a comfortable $ 2.33. and an announcement tomorrow at 8.30 a.m. would be just perfect. I am praying !! Surely something has got to give... Surely thay have something in the pipeline...

At the end of the day, we need something. Weather they have had a hiccup, or the ore is still being treated, we need to know. It isn't real fair being kept in the dark, when a November POUR was on-line and on-schedule. It is now December the first and nothing. They have to man up and let the market know, whatever the news. Its there duty... 

And just a couple of questions Beatle regarding rosters. Do you know the Siana roster at all. Are the working a 24 hr roster, 7 days a week? Over Xmas? Is there a break? Or just day work? It is something they haven't mentioned. But as a mine worker myself, i am keen to know what roster they are actually on.

Just my thoughts, good luck to all RED holders...

P.S. Beatle have you heard from A.B. Its been months. I sure hope he is still part of the RED team and his new wife is treating him ok, LOL..

Regards Moit.


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## beatle (2 December 2011)

Hi Moit, sorry for the delayed response, I've been away from the internet since lunch yesterday. I think you have made a lot of interesting points, and agree that the move up since the consolidation began has been fantastic, although its hard to know whether its more related to the lack of retail sellers not being able to trade, or Siana expectations, or some other reason. 

I agree with you that we should be continuously informed about how the project is going, and its disappointing that we haven't had an update since the AGM, considering its supposed to be pouring a wee gold bar from the gravity circuit. But perhaps RED has decided that it should be included as part of a more relevant CIL gold pour in the coming week (I believe it would take 2 weeks for that to happen, plus or minus). Perhaps if we did get a status report that Siana had produced, say a 5 oz bar, from the gravity circuit the company would be laughed at, although the significance of such a small bar is highly relevant to the process. Remember that RED has used and processed only low grade Suricon mined feed for this commissioning, thus its unlikely a lot of gravity gold is available from that type of feed material.

I can wait for the bigger bar, and it shouldn't take long for that to occur now - certainly the timing of the RED shares coming back online on 8 Dec seems to be about the timeframe! Of course that also is subject to all things occurring without any minor setbacks onsite. AND any significant negative setbacks onsite would be reported on for sure as they happen, so I can't see that being an issue. I also confirm that I haven't been able to talk with the Chairman over the last few days, so presumably he is once again avoiding discussions that might inadvertently lead to sensitive information becoming available to selected investors. Interesting though that as you point out, that the share price was up 11% in the past couple of days, does someone know something that we don't know?

About the shifts, to be honest I am not aware of what is being worked onsite, but as you would know yourself being involved in the mining industry, that the process clearly will be on a continuous operations basis, 7 days a week 24 hours a day, and even though I realise that the Philippines is a highly catholic oriented country, I can't see the plant stopping over Christmas. Perhaps there will be a build up on the ROM stockpile prior with mining off for the day and the crusher down if they can get sufficient crusher throughput beforehand. But I really don't know about their forward plans for the Christmas period.

As to AB, no I haven't seen any of his posts for a while, and I do hope he remains involved. I had hoped to catch up with him at the time of the official mine opening, whenever that falls due. (And that is clearly now going to be held in 2012).


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## beatle (5 December 2011)

A slow start to the week for RED, shame that there is no news out re the commissioning, and maybe the consolidation completion date or soon thereafter will be the trigger for an announcement (how could a financial happening force an announcement re the commissioning - oh I'm so cynical!!!).

Certainly most parties are holding off buying or selling at the moment, its been the quietest trading for quite a while - one would hope that once the commissioning is completed that we get back to increases in trade volumes, although I'm sure some of the day traders will have lost interest due to the consolidation price.

But gold production levels and cost of production, forecast to keep RED at the forefront of the gold market at current prices, should rule future trading, either by the insto's or retail investors, not making a quick turn on the stock price as day traders appeared to be doing previously.


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## silence (6 December 2011)

Hi guys, just a word of caution when trading RED with the new code REDDA.

I had a reasonable size holding inside my Commsec margin loan (there's no LVR available but I trade everything in it). I sold it off last week and got the confirmation note. I then purchased another share with LVR and thought everything was ok. Come Monday I had a margin call, and basically had to sell off my new shares for a tiny loss as I didn't have time to sit on the phone arguing with a call centre monkey as I was at work.
Since then my ~$7000 seems to have vanished into the wind and the unsettled transactions suggests that I never had or sold any RED/REDDA shares :S. Unsettled is $9 (the loss I made) and the equity value is of the other shares I hold/held not including RED.
I will sort it out with them at some point, probably when the code returns to RED, but in the meantime I would advise phoning to check that the transaction worked properly if you sell them, even if everything seems fine at the time. I know my balance updated properly on the day I sold them, but something happened since then, and it wasn't any changes in LVR for any single companies.

At least I sold at a good time..


----------



## dave1234 (6 December 2011)

This thread is starting to remind me of PEN unfortunately with the spruiking but no action. Thinking of stepping off the train, taking profits and going elsewhere.

Where do other people sit with this stock of late?


----------



## tech/a (6 December 2011)

Technically It hasnt and isnt performing.
As such I never got on the train.
Evidently its coming!
From what Ive read its a really swish train with all
the bells and whistles.
There are lots of people on the train who have paid heaps for the ticket.
They are patiently waiting for it to get a move on.
But until it leaves I cant see any reason to get on.

But lots of huffing and puffing!


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## Chasero (6 December 2011)

dave1234 said:


> This thread is starting to remind me of PEN unfortunately with the spruiking but no action. Thinking of stepping off the train, taking profits and going elsewhere.
> 
> Where do other people sit with this stock of late?




Waiting to see any action on gold pour.

If no action I will be out as well.


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## beatle (6 December 2011)

tech/a said:


> Technically It hasnt and isnt performing.
> As such I never got on the train.
> Evidently its coming!
> From what Ive read its a really swish train with all
> ...




I'm on the train, and will be happy when I get to my destination. I won't be getting off beforehand as I bought a ticket to get somewhere, and its heading in the correct direction as far as I'm concerned! 

At the moment there is virtually no volume, whilst I don' have much knowledge of technical analysis, I'm sure that there are a couple of facts that technical traders will still be looking at -:

1. RED remains in a strong uptrend
2. RED has traded downwards in the last few days, but still within its uptrend channel, on virtually no volume. 

 I remain confident because of my own fundamental knowledge and valuation of RED, plus other facts that support my view:

1. Its got a stock standard gold plant, costing $85 million (plus or minus);
2. Siana has got around 850,000 ozs gold in reserves - for those who don't understand what a reserve implies, it means its economic and been modeled to accomodate all technical and financial factors;
3. Valuations, on a consolidated basis, remain at around $4.00 - $5.00 depending on the gold price and exchange rate of the day.
4. The project has been assessed and reviewed by a considerable number of industry competent technical consultants on behalf of RED and banks, or by analysts on behalf of instos. 
5. There is a considerable shareholding held by industry savvy fund managers and institutions, both in Australia and elsewhere.

Get off the train if you want, and you may well still find a way to where you want to go some other way. I'm staying put!


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## silence (6 December 2011)

I may reenter at $2.00-$2.10, but until then I didn't see much point holding as the longer the announcement takes to come out, the more likely it will just gradually slip down from here as a lack of it is signalling that things are falling behind etc. By the time the announcement does come, it will either do nothing or spark a gradual rise back up to $2.30ish imo. 'Yeah we were a bit slow pouring this gold bar that you already knew we were going to pour at some point' - not gonna do much to the price, imo. 

I know you guys are financially and thus emotionally invested in the stock, but if there's no action don't blame others for making the decision to put their money where they think it will do better..

If anything I listened to the spruiking here too much when making my decision to buy when perhaps I should have not read it at all, and in hindsight I just got lucky with a good enough return. Not to say it won't get to your valuations of $4+, but are there really any signals to buy or hold right now? From a purely value investor point of view maybe, if thats such a thing with a speculative stock..
The consolidation has just increased the danger of holding, I guess not all traders even know how to trade it now.


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## snsdmonkey (6 December 2011)

silence said:


> Hi guys, just a word of caution when trading RED with the new code REDDA.
> 
> I had a reasonable size holding inside my Commsec margin loan (there's no LVR available but I trade everything in it). I sold it off last week and got the confirmation note. I then purchased another share with LVR and thought everything was ok. Come Monday I had a margin call, and basically had to sell off my new shares for a tiny loss as I didn't have time to sit on the phone arguing with a call centre monkey as I was at work.
> Since then my ~$7000 seems to have vanished into the wind and the unsettled transactions suggests that I never had or sold any RED/REDDA shares :S. Unsettled is $9 (the loss I made) and the equity value is of the other shares I hold/held not including RED.
> ...




Same problem here with Bell Direct. Advised that my funds have vanished into the wind too until December 8 when REDDA starts trading under RED again. Got out at $2.28 and glad I did 

Transaction wasn't today btw.


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## tech/a (6 December 2011)

Just a quick comment on the Technical observations Beatle.
A rounding (price action on the chart) slow fall in price indicates lack of interest from buyers.
Sellers have to take lower bids.
This action shows impatience.
There is also the *real risk *that buyers have pre empted the up coming pour and price will actually fall on the fact.

Ill have a little side bet with Beatle that thats what will happen!


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## Chasero (6 December 2011)

tech/a said:


> Ill have a little side bet with Beatle that thats what will happen!




I'm guessing gold pour will be this Friday or early next week.

We'll see who wins


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## beatle (6 December 2011)

Thanks for your more informed technical interpretation Tech/a, lucky I don't buy/sell on my own chartists views, lol.

As for a side bet, I think that my entire holding in RED is a tad bigger that any side bet you may want to make with me, ie betting $10 or $100 or similar actually won't make much difference to my outcome from RED!!! Yes I am financially attached to RED, but I have chosen to be so, my decision is based purely on my expectations (greed maybe) that Siana will come online as I expect and the feasibility study forecasts.

But time will tell, and by the way I agree that its so frustrating for the news to come out so late, its been the story for RED for a long time, perhaps thats why the stock remains having a number of doubters and knockers. And due to my cynicism maybe the date of the announcement will post-date finalisation of the consolidation process, but that's just showing my frustration of course. 

Finally Silence, I don't "blame" anyone else to take their money out of RED and invest elsewhere. Each has their own view for whatever reason. But I do like to put a balance to any argument based on what I have observed to be the project fundamentals, its the way I have worked in industry over many years with success and I think its crazy logic to presume that a chartist with a technical interpretation can predict whether a project will succeed or fail! The volume for one thing is so low that certainly no one is selling down a big position at the moment on anything coming out of the project IMO.

At the same time Silence, can you blame the doubters if you decide to ignore RED in the future because of their negative views? For me its not important whether you want to re-consider an investment or not, but surely its your own best interest to make a decision based on a balanced view. But clearly with your comments that you made a decision to buy based on spruiking is not a good sign for your investment strategy IMO. I certainly don't consider my view as spruiking! Thats up to your own opinion though.


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## Starcraftmazter (7 December 2011)

dave1234 said:


> Where do other people sit with this stock of late?




No different to previously; trade the range, see what happens. Friday it will start trading as RED again (if I'm not mistaken?), providing all goes well in the world, if RED breaks out, it should be obvious and a cause to buy in.


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## anderbond (7 December 2011)

Hi Moit and Beatle, thanks for thinking of me. Yes I am still on board and hoping to get to the opening next year.........whenever that is. Very busy time of the year and I am off to Japan next week for the Christmas/New Year period. The consolidation process seems to have taken the edge off trading in RED (or REDDA). Possibly this is related to the traders as I understand settlement is deferred until relisting under RED with the usual T + 3 applying from that day. I can't imagine that would suit the traders very much from a liquidity aspect. Same story with the institutions possibly. I don't have much experience with trading through consolidation periods so my thoughts are related to the deferral of settlements. Will be interesting once the relisting as RED occurs to see if there is any pent up activity either way. I notice a number of small goldies have been subdued so maybe this has been weighing on RED as well. No matter IMO as the story continues to evolve. I note an Australian has been taken hostage(possibly wounded) in the southern part of Mindanao a few days ago. Unfavourable press of this kind certainly doesn't help things much either, especially for those investors that do not understand the Philippines. AB


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## mgm1a (7 December 2011)

Dec. share info now on web site

Major Shareholders 	                       Number              %

Baker Steel Capital Managers LLP 	 11,095,633        8.64
Mathews Capital Partners Pty Ltd 	10,428,188        8.12
JP Morgan Chase & Co 	                  7,348,235       5.72
Sprott Asset  Management                 6,622,068        5.16

Top 20 = 65%


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## beatle (8 December 2011)

Well spotted Mgm1a, I can't understand what Matthews is about moving back up from 6.1% at the time of the AGM to 8.1%, its very intriguing although it maybe misunderstood what is really happening! Or have I missed something - have you got a view Mgm1a?

And its great to see you're still around AB, sounds like you spend half your working life traveling to some great places - I would be happy to get some tips about traveling to Japan when we meet at the mine opening ceremony! (Japan's a country I would love to visit).

AB I agree with your views on RED, and also we will soon be testing what the possibility of pent up supply due to the confusing consolidation process,starting tomorrow. I'd like to think that RED will have a positive news release being prepared in a short while, just to calm those holders who have been getting a bit jittery with lack of news. I assume that its not long to go now as its been 2 weeks since the AGM, at which time it was declared that wet commissioning had begun and unless there are some minor hiccups (eg mechanical or electrical failures that might delay the progress slightly), it must be very soon that first gold production from the CIL plant will be achieved.


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## anderbond (8 December 2011)

Hi Beatle, Ha Ha I wish it was as good as you say travelling around. Yes I have spent some time in Japan over the last 18 months and yes it is a country I can recommend to travel in. But not necessarily for inexperienced travellers as English can be hard to come by. But back to my reason for posting. I am somewhat suspicious about the reported Matthews holdings as I think there may well have been some principal broker trading going on. While I do not have a clue on the actual value of their current holdings(other than what has been reported), I think it is possible they have been playing the market somewhat. As they have been  long term holders of RED, I have thought it strange that they have substantially reduced their position over the past few months, but I guess it is possible they are running a risk reduction/profit taking scenario. It does however seem quite odd when considering they were such strong early supporters. Maybe there is some politics involved, but in my experience institutions only run a political theme if they think the management is stuffing things up. I am looking forward to catching up with Beatle and others at the opening, now looking like March I believe. In the meantime, tomorrow is the first "consolidated" proper trading day but I am not expecting much despite others expecting some sort of boost. Worthwhile checking out some of the other small goldies particularly those in the Phils and you will see not much excitement going on. Thus despite commissioning and production activity occurring right now, there is some time to go I feel to start to see the SP move up to more realistic levels. Will check the RED sediment in the glass tonight to ghet a better insight(lol). AB


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## badger7 (9 December 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Symbol *RED*
> Issuer Name *RED 5 LIMITED*
> Security Description *ORDINARY FULLY PAID*
> GICS Sector Materials
> ...




red5 has a market cap of 2 BILLION dollars AUD or USD I don't care that seems outrageous for an exploratory, Junior or new producer.

Check here for comparisons:


Aurico Gold Inc AUQ US

15,962,198

150,204,283


6.33% 



Alamos Gold Inc AGI CN

6,776,981

112,145,771


4.73% 



Perseus Mining Ltd PRU AU

23,329,486

74,799,252


3.15% 



Silvercorp Metals Inc SVM CN

9,784,897

71,868,115


3.03% 



Nevsun Resources Ltd NSU CN

11,409,617

68,123,850


2.87% 



Kirkland Lake Gold Inc KGI CN

3,332,740

59,037,862


2.49% 



Medusa Mining Ltd MML AU

9,425,225

54,703,168


2.31% 



Minefinders Corp MFN US

4,633,835

54,864,606


2.31% 



Endeavour Silver Corp EXK US

4,793,517

54,166,742


2.28% 



Aurizon Mines Ltd ARZ CN

8,902,803

52,980,303


2.23%

http://vaneck.com/funds/GDXJ.aspx?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=gdx


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## Buckfont (9 December 2011)

badger7, you`ll find that according to the consolidation notice of the 7th Dec RED has 128,367,673 shares issued and in todays price of $2.09, that would give it a MC of $268,288,436.

Think you missed the 10 : 1. The train has left the platform


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## Dougs Antiques (10 December 2011)

Quote Originally Posted by Chasero View Post
Expected gold pour = November.

It's still November?

Wouldn't management want to delay the announcement right before AGM anyway?

Therefore, your shares are up 5% today! Now vote yes for my 200k bonus. Kidding!



Dougs Antiques said:


> Management has stated late November to early December so my money is on mid December if RED is consistant with other Companies and their time lines for announcements.




Still waiting and we are aproaching the second week in December
Good luck to all holders


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## dave1234 (12 December 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> Still waiting and we are aproaching the second week in December
> Good luck to all holders



So November has come and gone, middle of December is here and we're still waiting....


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## Moit (12 December 2011)

Hi all RED members. Beatle and A.B. now i apologize for my delayed response. Thanks Beatle for answering my questions, re, Rosters and so forth. 

I must admit, my frustrations with management are deepening. I know its not just me, we all are. Posters on other forums are also in dis-belief. I'm absolutely gob-smacked we haven't heard anything, not even a progress report. The last time we heard something was in a chairmans speech from the AGM. Wet and dry commissioning was almost complete, if my memory serves me correct. Beatle am i right in saying, a small gold bar was to be produced, then a week or two later (which is now), was a major gold pour. I'm under the impression it has been raining for the last few days in the Phills, but surely that hasn't been to much of a hindrance, considering the pit is 100% dewatered and they do have a ROM pad, hopefully with a stock pile on it for those rainy days. 

With the majority of announcements being on an immediate release basis, it sure would have been a great day for an Ann, with market sentiments up and a steady gold price it could have been the perfect day. But on the other hand with so much disappointment regarding news and a major build up of anticipation, equating to a nice rise of the Sp, then to be let down again, followed by the equivalent drop in the Sp, I'm really not expecting to much out of RED. I once posted RED management have one chance to get this right, and so far have failed to meet shareholder expectations. November wasn't it??? 

I'm starting to lose interest and i never thought id say that about RED. Then we get a bloke wanting to dump 200 000 shares at $2.10. Does he know something we don't. Or has he just had enough as well! 

A.B its great to see you are traveling the world with your new wife. Hopefully she isn't spending to much of your hard earned shopping, lol. Good luck with your ventures, i envy you.. 

And good luck to all holders, maybe here something by Xmas. I sure hope its before. Just my thoughts and concerns. Apologies for being a little negative. Cheers Moit.


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## Buckfont (12 December 2011)

Hi moit and all, yep I`m in complete agreement with RED`s communicarion abilities. NONE of my emails have been acknowledged. 

I`m am seriously thinking of giving them the flick and walk away with modest profits.

Noticed no accessability to their web site either. They seriously need a good hard look at their PR as I`ve said before.

BF


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## Sapling (12 December 2011)

Seems RED's management have gone to ground.

Could this indicate an ann. is near?


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## LostMyShirt (12 December 2011)

Sapling said:


> Seems RED's management have gone to ground.
> 
> Could this indicate an ann. is near?




No it indicates they are busy dealing with the hacker who done over their website.


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## beatle (12 December 2011)

Hi All, Moit, AB, Buckfont et al. Yes I have to agree with you all that its very disappointing with no news yet re the status of the project. I have refrained from posting only because I have got no news to add and I didn't want to show my frustrations as well, but we are one on the lack of information by the company.

Obviously we are all in the dark at the moment, and I presume that the project can't have a serious problem as if it did then it would have to be reported to the ASX already. And I can't see there being anything significant knowing all the things that might be holding up the process. Definitely the weather can't be the issue, although maybe the historic low grade stockpile might not have the amount of gold that was expected, notwithstanding that they did drill it a number of years ago themselves (I think it was about 2004) and the grade estimated stands at 1.3 g/t. In an overall context the low grade historic resource is an insignificant resource compared with the open pit and underground resources.

I remain confident that whatever the hiccup is that the project will deliver, but for sure RED has not done itself any favours by failing to provide an update. RED seems to continue to fail to deliver in what would have to be one of the easiest parts of the entire exercise!!!


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## Moit (12 December 2011)

Hi all, thanks Beatle. It seems as though we are all certainly on the same page as far as frustrations are concerned. 

LostMyShirt, I have spoken to the Perth office and they were unaware that the RED 5 Limited website was down. They were looking into it immediately. It is now back up. So weather it was a hacker or not its now accessible.

And Buck, I'm hearing you, about being tempted of pulling our shares. But at the end of the day, we are so close. And we all know the gold pour is IMMINENT. Its just a matter of when...

Cheers Moit


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## LostMyShirt (12 December 2011)

Moit said:


> Hi all, thanks Beatle. It seems as though we are all certainly on the same page as far as frustrations are concerned.
> 
> LostMyShirt, I have spoken to the Perth office and they were unaware that the RED 5 Limited website was down. They were looking into it immediately. It is now back up. So weather it was a hacker or not its now accessible.
> 
> ...




Liquidated my position after all this.

The Gold price is taking a hit, RED is late on Ann's and I know that I probably fell into a manipulative trap, but back to Cash I go with a small profit.

I'm sad to have to let go of my holdings, but with the current state of affairs, things don't look pretty.


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## ChrisJH (12 December 2011)

I had wanted to get out at 2.34, and the only reason I didn't was because I wasn't sure about how to go about it during the whole consolidation thing. SP has dropped dramatically since then. 

Concerned we may hit 1.70-ish again, only because that's how the SP seems to have moved over the past few months.


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## fastbuck1 (12 December 2011)

yeah iv  just about had a gutful as well, have been in this stock for all these years only to see it being a dud at the end, i beleive the current sp has the gold pour already built into it, my average is only about .85 so if i dump tomorrow still a few bobin in it, very dissapointing indeed.....


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## beatle (13 December 2011)

fastbuck1 said:


> yeah iv  just about had a gutful as well, have been in this stock for all these years only to see it being a dud at the end, i beleive the current sp has the gold pour already built into it, my average is only about .85 so if i dump tomorrow still a few bobin in it, very dissapointing indeed.....




Hi All RED holders, shame to see the gold price dip appreciably overnight, which clearly will exacerbate the negativity for RED at the moment. But I do want to extend the thoughts regarding my post yesterday.

Firstly, I don't believe that there is anything major wrong with the Siana gold project. Yeah yeah yeah you might say, Beatle's emotionally involved etc etc. Well I am saying that I don't believe there is anything major for a few reason's, one of which relates to my technical knowledge of the project in its various parts. It has been through an intensive technical program, by a considerable number of competent and industry knowledgeable experts, and nothing has been uncovered which could cause such a major downturn in gold production. 

Then there is the knowledge that RED management is in fact excessively conservative. They have a proven record of being ultra-conservative with their reporting. That leads me to the fact that IF there was a major and serious issue, then they certainly would have reported that major setback already to the ASX. I have no doubt about that.

Since we have not heard any information from RED for 3 weeks since the AGM regarding project development I am assuming there has been a setback that has affected the timing of the first gold pour. The gravity gold pour that was previously expected is not a serious issue, firstly it was not expected to be a significant gold pour due to the nature of the low grade being used to commission the plant. The CIL gold pour which was expected a couple of weeks after the AGM is clearly also affected by whatever the holdup is related to. It might be something at the end of the chain in the gold production process, which has delayed the final gold pour. It might be in the electowin process or whatever. 

What I was venting my frustration about yesterday is the fact that RED should have provided an update by now, even if it was to announce that there has been another small delay due to whatever the issue is about. RED fail to understand that at such a critical time the onus is on the company to fully inform the market. RED has failed to provide that update and I consider its decision not to fully inform the market as being delinqent, but clearly they consider that the status of the project is not of signficance, and therefore don't have to advise the market under continuous disclosure. My view is that they fail to understand the market, they have always been a poor PR performer, and despite their promise a few quarters ago to improve PR, they have not lifted the game!

So what will I do about things, since I have a considerable RED holding at the moment. I will HOLD!!! I have held my shares a long time, I have waited for the company to build and produce this project, I have supported them through some very frustrating times, times when my views of RED management were quite negative, and we are now within cooee of the finish line for Siana gold production. I am not going to give up within sight of the line. 

And on a valuation aspect, RED's share price, based on current gold price and exchange rate, remain way above current share price. And once gold production reaches steady state then EPS and PE's will force the RED share price up, even if the overall market is looking quite sick. 

Thats my view anyways,


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## Chasero (13 December 2011)

Guess RED management has never heard of underpromise and overdeliver right?

They always seem to be delaying this and that. Under today's climate, I'll take my money elsewhere thanks.

Sold today @ loss, but knowing how the markets love me a positive ann will come out tonite


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## beatle (13 December 2011)

Chasero said:


> Guess RED management has never heard of underpromise and overdeliver right?
> 
> They always seem to be delaying this and that. Under today's climate, I'll take my money elsewhere thanks.
> 
> Sold today @ loss, but knowing how the markets love me a positive ann will come out tonite




Sorry to hear about your decision Chasero, but I can hardly blame you with the lack of information. And no I don't see an announcement in the wind anytime soon because I'm still in the stock, I haven't sold a share!

And unlike Fastbuck I personally don't believe that the share price (even before the drop today!) had the gold production factored into it. I can see it rushing back up once FINALLY they actually do pour some gold!!! But they have lost a lot of credibility with the market, with this past month's performance IMO.


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## Starcraftmazter (13 December 2011)

People are thinking too much into it IMO, gold has dropped quite a bit. Nothing to panic about - it's still above support, however it has hit every gold miner (many harder than RED), so I don't think the drops are unreasonable.


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## beatle (14 December 2011)

FINALLY some news. And whilst that news confirms some unforseen hiccups that have temporarily stalled the plant from producing gold, its very clear that the pathway for gold production is now very much in readiness for that ever-elusive gold pour and the start of a new era for RED5!!!

Yes Starcraftmazter you are obviously correct that most gold miners have been hit for six with the gold price continuing to move down, but RED got a double whammy IMO due to lack of information. This latest news, whilst not giving a good account of the last couple of weeks which must have been quite harrowing onsite for all the managers and crews, now gives absolute certainty of the future for RED.

Its a pity that RED didn't put this news out earlier, even if they may never have had all the solutions at that time it would have been far more preferable to give an update earlier to alert all that the gold production would be delayed until all circuits were resolved and not on the schedule of first gold in November as had previously been stated!

I still have all my shares in RED, the gold price has dropped quite a bit but the valuation for RED remains way above that current gold price, and once they start producing, which clearly will be within the next couple of weeks (RED making only the following comment "...Fresh, higher grade ore from the pit is currently being introduced to the plant..."), then IMO the share price will recover and go to its record high!!! And I believe then RED will trade against the trend of this bear market.


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## Chasero (14 December 2011)

I mean seriously? More excuses... more less than positive announcements. 

"generators not being synchronised" yadda yadda

Continues to underperform against it's peers. I don't see RED going above $2 anytime soon.


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## LostMyShirt (14 December 2011)

Guys there is nothing wrong in Siana. The Share price was dipping way before the microcrash on spot gold a few days ago. There is still Gold in the ground, and still a machine up in Siana. Reserves have not been hindered or re-rated lower and there doesn't look like there is going to be any majour hinderance to the company itself.

Take this as an oppertunity to buy. If we do hit 1.70, I will most likely take another buy in at 1.65, which is anyone can remember that was the price we sat on for a couple of days after the dip from peaks at 0.245 ($2.45).

I only am worried about the Buy/Sell depth and the ratio of sales that greatly outweigh the limit orders in the bid depth.

As soon as this levels out, and the price seems to be a nice value underneath $2, I am sure some sort of buy oppertunity will be taken, If not by me than the group I trade with (just friends, mostly hobbyists and people wanting to earn a side income, like myself).

Don't forget the key factors though. They are ready to produce (at some stage after fine tuning) and are debtless. Seems to be all go from here.


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## Dougs Antiques (14 December 2011)

RED wont see much in the way of gains until the Quarterly report IMO.
It needs to be producing the gold bars sucessfully and putting money in the bank until this happens its just a "pie in the sky".
In saying this I may grab a few if finds its way down to $1.65 in the meantime.
DYOR
I hold just 1 share lolz


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## beatle (14 December 2011)

Hi All RED holders, great to see the share price recover after some opening weakness, presumably as much about the general concerns in the marketplace as anything about Siana. And I agree with you guys who suggest that we now are ready to embark on its new status as a GOLD PRODUCER!!!

Whilst the gold price will also be very important as to how many insto's want to add to their existing positions, or get invested in RED for the first time, I believe you must not contemplate too long before getting this (dare I say it!) final opportunity before the whole market realises RED is on the brink of substantial POSITIVE cash flows each month from its operation. And knowing that it will be a lower cost producer it will become a preferred buy for gold based funds groups as it remains highly discounted even at a gold price of US$1,500. 

And remember, we are yet to hear about a new reserves upgrade in due course, that will only add to whatever its implied NPV is (depending on your view of future gold price).

AND we are yet to see what might happen with the potential second tier N American insto's who want RED now that its in its consolidated shares, not a pennydreadful anymore, and its aim to pay a dividend as soon as the operation can do so! Just be aware that you have had this opportunity now, and it might not be here for much longer - I am now full to the brim with RED shares!!!!


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## fwpike (14 December 2011)

It doesn't seem to me that this hiccup is anything but to be expected at shakedown time. Any way thanks to all of you sellers, I have topped up in Red again. From here on in they are banking money in my name let the sp do what it will.


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## Starcraftmazter (14 December 2011)

Chasero said:


> Continues to underperform against it's peers. I don't see RED going above $2 anytime soon.




Bit of a short sighted comment. It could well stay below $2 for the near future for a range of reasons, but it could just as well be above $2 under different circumstances - without any announcements.

I'm not one to speculate over the short-term movement at this stage, especially now that RED is outside it's trading range of recent times, it's hard to predict accurately what will happen.



LostMyShirt said:


> Take this as an oppertunity to buy. If we do hit 1.70, I will most likely take another buy in at 1.65, which is anyone can remember that was the price we sat on for a couple of days after the dip from peaks at 0.245 ($2.45).




Pretty much this. I'll continue to observe technicals and watch gold to figure out a good time to buy back in. Every time gold has had a correction in the last few months it has bounced right back up quickly, it may well rise sharply to Christmas. We'll just have to wait and see.


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## beatle (15 December 2011)

Obviously today RED will come under the same sort of pressure that any gold PRODUCER will come across due to the gold price drop overnight, notwithstanding RED having been pounded recently for its own commissioning delays.

But we do have certainty that RED will soon be producing gold, and lots of it, as all circuits have been tested now and fresh ore has been within the treatment process for at least a few days. An announcement on gold production will finally confirm that Siana is set to produce gold again after a 20 year dormancy.

The gold price of course is central to the immediate future of RED's fortunes both to the extent of its cash flows and share price. At least we can take some heart from the fact that the aussie dollar gold price remains in an uptrend due to the softening aussie dollar which partially offsets the fall in US dollar denominated gold price:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=1Y

I'm not sure going to be pretty for the next trading session, and who knows what might happen tomorrow - if US gold price reversed sharply the RED share price could reverse as well, but of course thats not looking likely at the moment. I take heart that RED remains a highly profitable gold producer at anything like the current gold price, and actually taken in the context of when gold was starting its move up to US$1,500 for the first time earlier this year when we were so excited for RED the outlook still looks very positive for RED. But of course I am an eternal optimist and realistically there is a lot of negativity out there too.


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## jah008 (15 December 2011)

$1.80 - Wish I had some more cash to buy some more stock at this price.


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## Boggo (15 December 2011)

The comments on this RED thread seem to be following a familiar pattern.
There are usually two each year that get intense and tend to provide some humour.
I was wondering if there would be another before the end of the year and it looks like RED is it.

This was when this stock was trading at around 9 cents...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&p=618870&viewfull=1#post618870


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## beatle (15 December 2011)

Boggo said:


> The comments on this RED thread seem to be following a familiar pattern.
> There are usually two each year that get intense and tend to provide some humour.
> I was wondering if there would be another before the end of the year and it looks like RED is it.
> 
> ...




Not sure what your point is Boggo, but if there is any consolation I go along with the theory that laughter is the best medicine - and keeping a sense of humour has kept me young over the years!

On a more relevant aspect of this RED thread, as with other goldies RED has copped a beating this morning and one can only ask the question of how much further gold will go down in coming days - whilst the short term trend is down there is always a possibility that eventually traders will step in when they think gold is due for a change. I've noticed a few market commentators today, both in Australia and the US, consider it might be approaching a level that will provide a springboard for a move upwards! I continue to believe that the solutions to both European and US economic woes will eventually result in increased money printing, thus gold should regain some strength when or if that money printing happens.

Was that funny enough for you Boggo, lol?


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## tech/a (15 December 2011)

beatle said:


> Originally Posted by tech/a
> 
> Nothing is going to happen.
> At best price will do nothing
> ...





*RIGHT*


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## beatle (15 December 2011)

tech/a said:


> *RIGHT*




Congratulations Tech/a, Boggo, whoever you are, you are right, I am wrong.

(But who has the last laugh I wonder, as I said, laughter is the best medicine!).


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## Boggo (15 December 2011)

beatle said:


> (*But who has the last laugh I wonder*, as I said, laughter is the best medicine!).




The ones who sold out at 2.14 on the 8th Dec and who may buy back in between 1.65 and 1.70 I would suggest 

Still laughing


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## beatle (15 December 2011)

Boggo said:


> The ones who sold out at 2.14 on the 8th Dec and who may buy back in between 1.65 and 1.70 I would suggest
> 
> Still laughing




(PLUS those who bought a long time ago at even cheaper than the equivalent of $1.65, lol!).

Keep watching, one day RED might end up GREEN!!!


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## Moit (15 December 2011)

H all, hi Beatle. It certainly isn't a good day for RED. Or for any gold stocks for that matter. They are all being hammered.

How funny is it when RED goes down, we start to rake in the comedians. When RED goes up, we lose them. lol. 

On a more serious note to Beatle or any other posters that may know. Ruffly how long does the process take, from actually feeding the plant with the fresh, higher grade ore. To having that gold, ready for pour ? Providing there are no problems in the process of course. I remember reading that they need about 4000 g, or 4kg of gold in the tanks before that initial pour. (Please correct me if I'm wrong). It would be interesting to know. It may provide the time frame we are looking at. But if they have been feeding the plant for lets say 4-5 days, surely it wouldn't be to much longer. And keeping in mind, once that initial pour eventuates, it should be a continuous process, providing the plant is kept up with the material...

It may all seem like doom and gloom at the moment, but hang in there guys, RED'S time to shine is nearing by the day...

Cheers Moit.


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## beatle (15 December 2011)

Hi Moit, yes you are quite right about the timing of share price movements and the frequency of comedians, lol!!! 

About your question, until they get to steady state its problematical as to how long, but its more in terms of days than weeks, but of course I would be loathe to make an estimate knowing that I can only be right for 1 day and wrong for any other day! 

It also depends upon how things went when they introduced low grade stockpile material which was apparently very puggy - clearly increasing pulp densities beyond ideal levels - since the plant by design has redundant tankage (which can offset higher pulp densities by increasing the volume of water cf mill feed) its should be only a matter of a couple of days to improve leach kinetics. Of course which day they introduced the fresh feed into the mill is important, but I would expect that they would be anxious to test the whole system out sooner than later and would be prepared to pull the loaded carbon a bit ahead of optimum! (BUT certainly NOT long to go, maybe early next week we should hear about it, IMO!)


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## snsdmonkey (15 December 2011)

Boggo said:


> The ones who sold out at 2.14 on the 8th Dec and who may buy back in between 1.65 and 1.70 I would suggest
> 
> Still laughing




Sold out at 2.24 a while back actually and was sad for a few days when it hit 2.30. Doesn't look too rosy for RED atm, gold looks bearish after breaking a key support at $1600 coupled with RED's current problems with getting production off the ground. Even if RED were to start production soon, the dropping POG will probably mean we won't see even see anywhere near a new high.


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## Chasero (15 December 2011)

tech/a said:


> *RIGHT*




Actually, not entirely right.

You said RED was going nowhere when it was at ~18.5c?

Up to the announcement of gold pour, RED shot up to 2.32 (or 23c). 

That's quite a large share price increase % for any stock. Best trade would've been to sell at that top. Every day since the "November gold pour announcement" didn't come in, RED share price dropped ~1-3%. (i.e. peaked on 31 November with 11% rise over those past 2 days to end of Nov)

You were right though that price has been factored into gold pour at that time.

Anyway, RED shares look rosy compared to what's been happening to MML.


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## tech/a (15 December 2011)

Also said that price had already factored in the pour announcement
Seems it had.
And it's gone no where!

Carry on holding---


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## stacks (15 December 2011)

An interested onlooker on this thread (not an invester in RED at the minute) it has been an interesting study, this little period. I personally think macroeconomics are dominating most of the market at the moment, including gold and commodity prices, with the flow on effects to the RED share price (and others significant asx companies)

Its interesting that this has been captured in the analyis of some who simply study chart analysis only, without a thought for the macro picture. 

Its great education a as far as Im concerned and does seem to show some interesting things that I have been questioning whether chart analysis alone, does pick up. 

So thanks for the discussion guys, I know people are making/losing real money here, but its invaluable from my perspective to see these types of discussion.

Also for a second there I thought (hoped maybe?) there weren't going to be any 'I told you so'  because I think graciousness while your 'up' is classy, (but tough after a spirited debate). And really at the end of the day, 'up' can only be determined from a personal reference point.

Thanks again..


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## theartglasshouse (15 December 2011)

This is still a spec stock even at these prices in my opinion...no gold pour yet! The consolidation was poorly timed in my opinion as they shoud have done it after 2-3 quarters after producing. 

Yes, the current market conditions are affecting the share price on this one, but I still think it is over valued in my opinion. We can go on about the reserves etc and the valuation of the company but still, what are the future goals for the progression of the company???!!! I think this may drop further and will watch with interest...


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## Starcraftmazter (15 December 2011)

Gold breached $1600, somewhat bearish. Apparently buyers in China and India have let up. The other thing I have heard is that central banks are doing some sort of canoodling with banks involving lots of sales and leases of gold.

Not getting too much into that, seems that there is significant potential for RED to drop quite a bit further. The nature and pace of the recovery will depend largely on CB action more than anything in my view (same goes for every gold stock).

RED will present good opportunities in the future, the only issue is how long is it before it does so.


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## Boggo (15 December 2011)

beatle said:


> Keep watching, one day RED might end up GREEN!!!



You will be right eventually but for the moment its going down and your profits are being eroded.




Moit said:


> How funny is it when RED goes down, we start to rake in the comedians. When RED goes up, we lose them. lol.



The so called comedians are closer to the action than you think, the reason they are laughing is because they saw the direction in the bars on the 7th and 8th and now have a good reason to laugh.




beatle said:


> low grade stockpile material which was apparently very puggy - clearly increasing pulp densities beyond ideal levels



Thats how to make money, get in on some of that puggy stuff with the increasing densities 




snsdmonkey said:


> Sold out at 2.24 a while back actually and was sad for a few days when it hit 2.30.



Bet your not sad now 




Starcraftmazter said:


> RED will present good opportunities in the future, the only issue is how long is it before it does so.



Tend to agree with you, its on my list with others that may have similiar potential but for now there are over 730 other stocks just in the Metals and Mining sector...


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## Boggo (15 December 2011)

stacks said:


> ...
> I personally think macroeconomics are dominating most of the market at the moment, including gold and commodity prices, with the flow on effects to the RED share price (and others significant asx companies)



and in turn the flow effects your account balance/wallett/hip pocket unless you know how to disengage from it (in some cases just temporarily).



stacks said:


> Its interesting that this has been captured in the analyis of some who simply study chart analysis only, without a thought for the macro picture.



Chart analysis alone is not the be all and end all but it is far better than waiting for or depending on Gus or whoever to tell you what they want you to hear.
There are numerous examples stacks where the chart becomes the barometer before the news etc.
Go into hospital with chest pains and they are not going to read your horoscope for next week, but if they don't analyse the site of the action asap then they could probably write a fairly accurate horoscope of an upcoming event.



stacks said:


> Its great education a as far as Im concerned and does seem to show some interesting things that I have been questioning whether chart analysis alone, does pick up.



Just two recent examples off the top of my head, look at the behaviour of GXY in the first week of Nov and CDU in the last week of Nov, you could see that something was happening on both prior to any news.
Have a look at the current behaviour of HCH at the moment in a supposedly negative market.

Use everything that is available to you stacks, just don't get hung up on any one item and overcome the "I bought it so I must be right" psychology/mentality.
There are only three ways that the price will go, up, down, or sideways and if its not going the way you expected it to then you may as well start discussing the density of poggy as you become one of the 90% that come and go.

Have a read of the PEN thread from around Feb this year and you will see a pattern.

My


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## Chasero (16 December 2011)

Ya.. pretty interesting RED rising ~20% and not a peep from these 'RED haters' prior to gold pour.

With people saying it's dead... etc.

Then it drops 30% and everyone goes I told you so.

*rollls eyes*

Meh, I did a nice trade from 16.5 to 21.5 and caught some of it. Then had some offsets from 21.5 down to 19.5ish. Real dumb not to sell @ 2.30.. but wasn't really looking at RED s/p and was looking at NST and other trades I had on while doing exams... sigh.

Should've noted what Bank of america did, sell the rumour


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## beatle (16 December 2011)

Oh wow, the RED thread has had more action than the market in the past day, and if I'm not mistaken there have been many "I told you so's", lol. And I don't mind reading the posts, it keeps me involved while waiting for the activity on the ground.

Just for your information Boggo, the word is puggy, not poggy, but that isn't relevant to your reading of the tea leaves I guess, haha. 

And from my own personal point of investing in RED, nothing I have read here has deterred me from holding every share that I hold. I am not in RED for the short term, notwithstanding that I could have made a lot of money IF I was able to read the cyclicity of its share price (which I have no confidence in me being able to do - yes I am not a smart trader like you guys, but actually I am not a trader anyway!). 

At the appropriate time Siana will be producing gold, and whatever happens to the gold price is up to other far less certain factors. And RED will make its ups and downs, and in time I will be less frustrated than the past few weeks of not seeing an announcement. But keep up the posts, even when RED is going up, seems only us true holders post both when its going UP and when its going DOWN - Moit was spot on with his observation. (Although I can be sure whenever someone kicks RED that they have just got out and/or want it drop a bit more before getting in/back in, lol, but thats ok). Its part of the game you guys play I guess.


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## Moit (16 December 2011)

Hi all RED team. Beatle thanks for the info regarding processing. Not long now my friend.

And for all those concerned, Petra Capital have a new report out for RED. And also the share market and share registry reports are out as well...

Cheers Moit.


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## dave1234 (18 December 2011)

And now this....

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/mo...ages-philippines/story-fn7x8me2-1226224712450

Isn't the Siana mine less than 150km from Cagayan de Oro?


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## Dougs Antiques (18 December 2011)

dave1234 said:


> And now this....
> 
> http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/mo...ages-philippines/story-fn7x8me2-1226224712450
> 
> Isn't the Siana mine less than 150km from Cagayan de Oro?




Its about 1000kms away so I would think that RED will be safe for now


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## Buckfont (18 December 2011)

Hi everyone, I`ve always had this in my bookmarks. Just the weathermap for the area near Siana.

http://english.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.1.98653


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## dave1234 (18 December 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> Its about 1000kms away so I would think that RED will be safe for now




Unless I'm doing something wrong, Surigao is about 175km NE of Cagayan de Oro. Siana is more south so probably even closer?


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## Buckfont (18 December 2011)

dave1234 said:


> Unless I'm doing something wrong, Surigao is about 175km NE of Cagayan de Oro. Siana is more south so probably even closer?




Agreed. and when you look at the weather map and the heavy cloud, I bet it pIssed down at Siana. Whether it is affected by any swollen rivers couldn`t say but the mine would have got a hammering.


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## reeftip (18 December 2011)

I have not heard of any damage to the mine.

It was a storm that hit places that do not normally get hit.  Thus the 
damage and loss of life reported. It has been a bad year over there for weather - A typhoon earlier this year did some damage to a couple of my farms and one of my houses. I also had the displeasure of being out on the water in one of the typhoons a couple of months ago.

They will have had lots of practice this year at getting the site's water management
right. So they should be ontop of this. 

Looking on the bright side - a drop in share price might present an excellent buying 
opportunity.


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## badger7 (19 December 2011)

Buckfont said:


> badger7, you`ll find that according to the consolidation notice of the 7th Dec RED has 128,367,673 shares issued and in todays price of $2.09, that would give it a MC of $268,288,436.
> 
> Think you missed the 10 : 1. The train has left the platform




yes you are right. Yahoo was a little slow as well and I relied on them.

I have been holding for five years and hear a lot of hoping. There has been action but not in its price.


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## beatle (19 December 2011)

RED are well and truly being tested as Reeftip accurately points out, and it makes each milestone all the more difficult to achieve. But I'm glad to hear from my mate who goes onsite frequently that the Siana mine had no damage from the effects of the wind and there was no flooding, but as expected there was lots of rain. I would imagine that the company will put out an announcement to that effect (or if they don't they should do!).

I can imagine it will have some impact on the pit and it might make it hard for them to build up the ROM pad in preparation for the festive season (I'm unaware of the shifts being worked over Christmas, I forgot to ask!), but I would imagine that they have been building up the stockpile prior to the Friday when the worst of the typhoon began.

I would imagine that the first gold pour will be this week, not sure when exactly, but I understand that there is a board meeting onsite and its possible that the gold pour will coincide with the board visiting site. Also they probably would intend to provide pics of the pour and site at that time, so the effects of the rain will be evident for all to see.

(How far away from Siana are your houses Reeftip - do you live there at all?).


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## Boggo (19 December 2011)

Boggo said:


> The ones who sold out at 2.14 on the 8th Dec and who may buy back in* between 1.65 and 1.70* I would suggest






beatle said:


> Just for your information Boggo, the word is puggy, not poggy, *but that isn't relevant to your reading of the tea leaves I guess, haha.
> *




The rumblings in the tea leaves are telling me that opportunity time for another profit run may be taking shape as expected.

A couple of target areas in play just now, an important one being the 50% retracement of the run up to "A" at 1.75 which is now breached intraday. The next support level is 1.65 if the current action remains below 1.75 at the close today.

Worst case scenario would be a break of 1.65 where the target would then be where "D" equals "B" at 1.44 but I think an opportunity may present itself around the areas originally predicted (if the tea leaves are behaving).

(click to expand)


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## beatle (19 December 2011)

Most appreciative of your chartist view Boggo, but of course your reference to an "opportunity" clearly means to take such opportunity you need to buy! And the fact that you point to two scenarios of either it being an opportunity at 1.65 or 1.44 means you have to bite the bullet at either one of those levels, so making that decision is the big call. 

I drink more coffee than tea so my reading of the tea leaves is very limited, but when I saw that you had posted again I assumed you were going to say your tea leaves had predicted the typhoon, lol!

The trading in most of the market today is curious, including the gold plays. Most of the market was trading down around 1.6% lower until about 45 minutes ago when the market seemed to drop way down to below 2 %, and at the same time gold in US$ has risen above US$1,600!!!

RED is not outperforming at the moment but I think its almost at the time to shine knowing its situation with the project commissioning!


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## Chasero (19 December 2011)

beatle said:


> Most appreciative of your chartist view Boggo, but of course your reference to an "opportunity" clearly means to take such opportunity you need to buy! And the fact that you point to two scenarios of either it being an opportunity at 1.65 or 1.44 means you have to bite the bullet at either one of those levels, so making that decision is the big call.
> 
> I drink more coffee than tea so my reading of the tea leaves is very limited, but when I saw that you had posted again I assumed you were going to say your tea leaves had predicted the typhoon, lol!
> 
> ...




Well, retail shares took a major hit today led by Billabong (down 40%)

All other stocks look kinda rosy


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## reeftip (19 December 2011)

beatle said:


> RED are well and truly being tested as Reeftip accurately points out, and it makes each milestone all the more difficult to achieve. But I'm glad to hear from my mate who goes onsite frequently that the Siana mine had no damage from the effects of the wind and there was no flooding, but as expected there was lots of rain. I would imagine that the company will put out an announcement to that effect (or if they don't they should do!).
> 
> I can imagine it will have some impact on the pit and it might make it hard for them to build up the ROM pad in preparation for the festive season (I'm unaware of the shifts being worked over Christmas, I forgot to ask!), but I would imagine that they have been building up the stockpile prior to the Friday when the worst of the typhoon began.
> 
> ...




My houses are on a couple of Islands about an hour by boat from Surigao City. They 
are still in the Surigao Del Norte province. We do have some business interests on Mindanao Island - in Surigao City and Tandag. 
I reside in Australia but I try to spend a couple of months a year over there. My wife is from that part of the world. 

Thanks for the post - you have summed things up nicely. Teething trouble is not at all uncommon with new mines - I usually look on this as an good time to top up my holdings as the impatient ones bail out.


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## beatle (20 December 2011)

Thanks Reeftip, seems you must have an idyllic place to go to in that part of the globe every now and then - typhoons excepted of course! (What I have enjoyed about posting on ASF for RED is that it gives us an opportunity to meet up with other interesting people, many of whom have a common interest of RED, lets hope we all share a successful investment as well!).

There was a fair amount of cleaning out of RED by weak holders yesterday, and I got the impression that some bigger trader was also unloading (obviously the 300,000 crossing could have been amonst that), and I wonder if Matthews is now either below or close to the 5% level! IF he stops selling it would be a real positive for RED share price.

The pre-market for RED seems strange, I almost thought that I had the wrong screen page with no selling at anywhere near the level we saw yesterday - is it indicative that the sellers have got the word that a positive announcement is due out soon? I wonder...

I presume RED's chart is interpreted at the moment as looking sick, but for my money its looking like about ready to base out before its next leg up again!!! (GO RED).


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## Boggo (20 December 2011)

dave1234 said:


> This thread is starting to remind me of PEN unfortunately with the spruiking but no action. Thinking of stepping off the train, taking profits and going elsewhere.



And that was on the 6th of Dec, smart money 




beatle said:


> I presume RED's chart is interpreted at the moment as looking sick,




Not that sick actually, definitely not as sick as it was when it was the profit takers moved in at the beginning of Dec and you guys were waiting for "The Chairman" to come to the rescue which obviously never eventuated.




Boggo said:


> The ones who sold out at 2.14 on the 8th Dec and who may buy back in between 1.65 and 1.70 I would suggest



The behaviour of some of these stocks is a lot more predictable than some are aware and that is why some can take profits, wait until it comes back to the expected  levels and then have an opportunity to do it all over again if there is nothing better on offer.


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## Dougs Antiques (20 December 2011)

RED is getting closer to a buy for me, I beleive anyting under $1.70 would be a good buy.
Im at the ready to pull the trigger and have a shot at the bulls eye. 
DYOR
I hold 1 share of RED5


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## beatle (21 December 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> RED is getting closer to a buy for me, I beleive anyting under $1.70 would be a good buy.
> Im at the ready to pull the trigger and have a shot at the bulls eye.
> DYOR
> I hold 1 share of RED5




Doug, does that mean you might lash out soon and double your holding (lol - sorry I just couldn't resist it!). I agree with your sentiments about it being about ripe to move. BUT of course that still depends upon RED putting out an announcement that it had FINALLY poured gold!

One of the most frustrating things about RED is that they don't rush to put out any news, even if its very much awaited by investors, seems they have no great realisation of how it might affect (positively) the share price. While I may be completely wrong, but I wouldn't mind betting that they have coincided the gold pour with the board being onsite, and thus will inform the market once all the i's are dotted and t's crossed. It really frustrates me!!!

But at least the whole market is ready to move, with gold up, all major overseas markets having a scorcher overnight, and some of the overseas gloom forgotten for now (strange how things can change so dramatically in 24 hours!).

I'm waiting RED . . .


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## Moit (21 December 2011)

Hi all RED team.

Boggo you are absolutely correct in saying, the profit takers moved in at the start of Dec, whilst the rest of us waited for the chairman to come to the rescue. And of course, we are still waiting and waiting. If it wasn't for a great night on oversees markets, and a rise in gold price, RED would be continuing its spiral down wards, IMO.

Beatle they never rush to put out much anticipated news, as we all know. The market has been waiting almost a month, in fact 9 months if you want to be technical. ( But nature isn't something any of us can really predict.) Its just getting to a point that its so frustrating, nearly to the point of selling. And i never thought id say that. I will hold out until this pour eventuates, ( if and when it does, ) then i will be seriously looking at my portfolio. 

Another thing i cant understand is almost everyone on the board have shares themselves. Wouldn't you think they would at least try to protect their own investment.


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## beatle (21 December 2011)

Hi Moit, yes we share the frustration about getting that news we have been waiting for. 

As for their shareholdings, its really only the MD has a big enough holding, and he really isn't much driven by the share price at all! I recall many years ago he told me he never looks at the daily share price (that might have changed nowadays but I know he is not focused on that at all). I think their combined view is that getting the project up and running is the priority and the share price will look after itself (and I think that its quite naive and definitely frustrating).

I do want to emphasise though, that whilst I do have qite a big holding and have held for a long time, I don't believe that the current price, or anywhere near the current price, is anything like what it can get to, subject to the gold price and them achieving anything like the base case feasibility study forecasts. Thus I wouldn't suggest you get too focused on looking to exit soon after the first gold pour, I think this share price will grow once they bed down the project properly, and start to give some more widespread promotion to the market. And no, I am not emotional about it, when I think we have seen something like the real project performance and corresponding share price performance then I too will sell down somewhat, but that's still a while away from its current situation!


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## Starcraftmazter (21 December 2011)

FYI, the reason for the gold price drop:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&p=677154#post677154

May be a good idea to buy RED during these lows.


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## mr. jeff (21 December 2011)

beatle said:


> One of the most frustrating things about RED is that they don't rush to put out any news, even if its very much awaited by investors, seems they have no great realisation of how it might affect (positively) the share price.
> 
> . . .




My interpretation of the update earlier this month was that they didn't release this update until they could report that the issues were all under control or resolved already, which in my mind is great for preserving the share price but probably also bordering on misrepresentation as some analysts may be able to gain info on site issues which are not conveyed to greater market.

It seems that management are not able to get the site sorted and this is a major issue in  my mind. How can you invest in stocks like this with millions of dollars when they miss dates and never release any information ? How can they have problems in the gravity circuit - it sounds technically admissible to someone who doesn't know much....why run questionable ore through - no-one on site knew better ? How will they run this mine ?  

Hard on the nerves and tiring to boot. Better stocks elsewhere and technically it's consolidating at 1.90, as per August. Perhaps when things start happening the sp will improve. I speak from a great wealth of ignorance and still hold for some reason!


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## Boggo (21 December 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> It seems that management are not able to get the site sorted and this is a major issue in  my mind. How can you invest in stocks like this with millions of dollars when they miss dates and never release any information ?




And this is why tech/a, myself and many others keep banging on being pro-active with your own money rather than being dependant on this type of management to determine the future of your funds.

Holding on and hoping when it is on the way down is not investing, its gambling on the hope that it all comes off.

Hit and run folks, ride it up and bail out with the smart money, its not Berkshire Hathaway or Microsoft, its a 18 cent stock that has had a consolidation.

If you think it is still good then do it all over again when it turns up again unless one of the other 1900+ stocks are providing a better opportunity, you will sleep better, believe me.


PS. I am long again as of yesterday (20th) with smaller holding this time and a tight stop.


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## beatle (22 December 2011)

MrJeff, your comment .."..I speak from a great wealth of ignorance and still hold for some reason!". 

I consider my knowledge of RED and general technical knowledge is quite extensive, and certainly not of great ignorance, but I AGREE with you wholeheartedly! As I've mentioned in some other posts, RED has been a real frustration for me at times, despite me continuing to hold (ALL my shares).

BUT I believe that once they sort out the technical issues onsite this company has the potential to move considerably higher, for a few different reasons:
1. It will be a long life, low cost gold producer. The resource is considerable, the grade is very good for an open pit (in the early years), and the operating cost base should always remain an advantage due to the costs of labour (and if mains power is used it is very low cost per unit);  
2. The plant is high quality (just the bugs need to sorted out, if there are any left!);
3. The shareholder base is stacked with insto's and funds who have a relatively high cost of entry and bought with an expectation of it moving far higher and have the potential to support it to that level;
4. The exploration potential is substantial, and hardly touched due to their focus on Siana.

But geez its frustration personified!


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## Moit (23 December 2011)

Well, we all thought this would be a very merry Xmas as far as RED goes. 

How wrong were we ??

Another day goes by, then another week. Then a month. Still nothing...

Maybe they should have said originally, gold pour will be by years end. Then if they happened to pour gold prior, it could have surprised the market, and everyone would have been happy. ( Hing sight is a wonderful thing. )

Yes they have a few teething issues with Siana, id just wish they took that into consideration a few months ago when they were announcing key dates. We all knew it was bound to happen, surely they did as well...

Anyhow just another frustrating day as a RED shareholder. Maybe in the new year things will start to improve.

Merry Xmas to you all.


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## skc (23 December 2011)

Don't know much about Red, but to me gold pour is a great sentimnetal milestone but not exactly an announcement that should excite the share price... and if it does it would be small retail holders jumping in. 

Unless of course the market was previously pricing a discount to them achieving gold pour... but that doesn't reflect very positively on the management, does it?

All gold stocks were nicely smashed in Dec so chin up if you believe in gold/Red (for good reasons I hope), and reassess your position if you had no idea one way or another.

Merry Xmas.


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## beatle (23 December 2011)

Hi Moit, yes sadly I agree with you, seems we are not going to hear from RED before Christmas, and thus its anyone's guess when that will be. Clearly there are continuing (hopefully minor in an overall context!) issues holding back that first gold bar, and I wonder if they will get it before the end of this year 2011.

I won't vent my frustration any more than that, other than to say the last few weeks have been very disappointing, not just the holdups with that first of many gold bars we expect, but just as much with the lack of news to the shareholders who own RED!!!

I wish you all a Merry Christmas, and let's hope that we all can celebrate the period between Christmas and New Year with a gold bar!


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## beatle (23 December 2011)

Just as I posted that last commentary I see one piece of good news, that Matthews is now down below 5%! OF course we still have to sit out their final selling down of the residual amounts, but its good that Matthews, who has shown himself to be a real thorn in our share price in recent times, is getting closer to having no impact on RED's share price.


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## tech/a (23 December 2011)

beatle said:


> Just as I posted that last commentary I see one piece of good news, that Matthews is now down below 5%! OF course we still have to sit out their final selling down of the residual amounts, but its good that Matthews, who has shown himself to be a real thorn in our share price in recent times, is getting closer to having no impact on RED's share price.




Strange that you see the total sell off from a major share holder as positive,
Mathews is a fool then for selling?

So the smart hold and the fools sell!


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## beatle (23 December 2011)

tech/a said:


> Strange that you see the total sell off from a major share holder as positive,
> Mathews is a fool then for selling?
> 
> So the smart hold and the fools sell!




Its good to see you said it, and agree with me Tech/a, that the fools sell!

Lol.


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## tech/a (23 December 2011)

beatle said:


> Its good to see you said it, and agree with me Tech/a, that the fools sell!
> 
> Lol.




My apologies
The sarcasm was a little subtle!


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## Boggo (23 December 2011)

Moit said:


> Well, *we all thought* this would be a very merry Xmas as far as RED goes.
> 
> How wrong were we ??




I am assuming by "WE" you mean the two or three of you that held on !


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## calais (26 December 2011)

More rain unfortunately.

See wunderground.com.


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## Boggo (26 December 2011)

Moit said:


> Anyhow just another frustrating day as a RED shareholder. *Maybe in the new year things will start to improve*.




Hopefully you are right Moit. I am long at 1.75 and I am using the chart below as a plan view on the current situation.
A move below 1.75 is obviously a negative direction and below 1.70 all bets are off.
Above 1.85 is pointing in the right direction and a close above 1.90 should be confirmation of the trend direction.
(click to expand)


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## tech/a (26 December 2011)

Boggo
I'm thinking ABC correction ( for starters ) $1.50


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## Boggo (26 December 2011)

tech/a said:


> Boggo
> I'm thinking ABC correction ( for starters ) $1.50




Yes, likely to correct to around 1.44.
Really needs to be back above 2.10 before the possibility of sub 1.50 "C" is ruled out.
I have 6c at risk if my stop gets hit.


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## Boggo (28 December 2011)

tech/a said:


> Boggo
> I'm thinking ABC correction ( for starters ) $1.50






Boggo said:


> A move below 1.75 is obviously a negative direction and *below 1.70 all bets are off*.




Looks like all bets are off and next target is where we are heading.


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## Dougs Antiques (28 December 2011)

Boggo said:


> Looks like all bets are off and next target is where we are heading.




I think that there is room for a buy @ $1.50's on current action and announcements.
ATM im on the side line.
RED is currently oversold and worth a punt but I will err on caution and wait some more.
Regards


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## Boggo (28 December 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> ATM im on the side line.




Me too as of this morning when my stop got hit.

This sort of news won't help in the short term but can be helpful in creating a nice re-entry by helping it to target levels.


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## beatle (28 December 2011)

Hi All RED followers, I hope you all had a good Christmas, perhaps like me your mind has been away from the markets and its a shame to get back to see that RED has at last updated all with the latest news. And that news remains fairly negative from the commissioning point of view.

As RED has noted, the process is now all about trying to resolve materials handling issues, particularly at the front end of the plant, especially transfer points. It is critically important that they can get on top of this issue to ensure that throughput around design can be achieved. Thus not pouring the first gold now is secondary, its all about sorting out the material throughput, as this will ensure operating costs per unit of production is achieved as forecast. If thy can't sort this out to design then operating costs per unit will increase, but by how much depends entirely on how close to design production rate they can achieve. At least its certain that using the puggy low grade stockpile as feed will ensure that they can only improve throughput once they get onto treating ROM ore from the pit.

I suggest that whilst this is having a negative impact on price, once they overcome this issue the price should whip back up as the other elements of the plant are certainly capable of coping with the softness of the ore, AND there is likely to be very low wear rates on the plant.

It is certainly an opportunity, once the price steadies at some lower level, to get more if you were not completely full. Once the production comes online I have a feeling it will rush back up, and even though I do have a lot I will be trying to bottom pick for a few more!


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## tech/a (28 December 2011)

tech/a said:


> Just a quick comment on the Technical observations Beatle.
> A rounding (price action on the chart) slow fall in price indicates lack of interest from buyers.
> Sellers have to take lower bids.
> This action shows impatience.
> ...





As expected.
Could become very expensive.(to you beatle).
Watching with interest


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## fastbuck1 (28 December 2011)

quote of what i posted on another forum today "this is a buying oppotunity, surely no one thought the plant would be bolted together then hit the on button and away it goe's???" todays sell of was a combination of the ann and a drop below $1600 gold price....buy the oppotunity......


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## Dougs Antiques (28 December 2011)

fastbuck1 said:


> quote of what i posted on another forum today "this is a buying oppotunity, surely no one thought the plant would be bolted together then hit the on button and away it goe's???" todays sell of was a combination of the ann and a drop below $1600 gold price....buy the oppotunity......




I still think that there will be a better buying oportunity below todays $1.64 I will be waiting for sub $1.60 actually mid $1.50's


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## Boggo (28 December 2011)

fastbuck1 said:


> quote of what i posted on another forum today "this is a buying oppotunity, surely no one thought the plant would be bolted together then hit the on button and away it goe's???" todays sell of was a combination of the ann and a drop below $1600 gold price....buy the oppotunity......




That's what they were saying about Telstra when it was dropping through $6.
It's a risky approach if you just apply that mentality on its own, bordering on black vs red, can be lucrative if you get it right, but... etc.


----------



## fastbuck1 (28 December 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> I still think that there will be a better buying oportunity below todays $1.64 I will be waiting for sub $1.60 actually mid $1.50's




i agree i have a small  sqare up order in at the $1.50's i also note there is a 100k order in @$1.555, every time red hits these prices it bounces up strongly, tomorrows sp action will depend on what gold dose tonight.....


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## mr. jeff (28 December 2011)

fastbuck1 said:


> quote of what i posted on another forum today "this is a buying oppotunity, surely no one thought the plant would be bolted together then hit the on button and away it goe's???" todays sell of was a combination of the ann and a drop below $1600 gold price....buy the oppotunity......




Yes, I expected startup with no issues. I also expected gold production when stated. And I also expected that there would be no further weather incidents. Call me hopeful and stupid. I would.

Now I see what is happening, not looking good. Still holding some and regretting it.  Management by giving us these 2 releases are trying to say that they are being proactive when it appears that they are actually being reactive. 
It is far more important to produce that first gold than to put it off indefinitely. This project needs it pretty badly.

Good luck and i hope to be proven wrong, but I guess on the up side is that management is now communicating a little better, but you know why, not because there has been a change in style !


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## Dougs Antiques (29 December 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> I still think that there will be a better buying oportunity below todays $1.64 I will be waiting for sub $1.60 actually mid $1.50's



What a day for me...I sold another holding to buy RED when i saw it pop down to $1.47, well I thought I had sold the other holding @10:13AM sydney time.
My live trading platform had server issues so the sell didnt happen 
I immeadiatly rang my trading platform provider (who I wont name) and place a sell and a buy of RED @$1.50 at 10:20 AM.
Still it looks like no orders have been processed althought they told me after market close that my sell went through @ 10:20 AM but the buy of RED  hasnt, but it will more than likely be honoured at $1.50 even if they need to pick up the difference on tomorrows open.
I spent quite a long time on the phone today trying to sort out this mess but I will be happy as long as my phone order at 10:20 AM is honoured.
What a comedy of events. 

EDIT:this may have been the contributing factor of todays fall:

DJ MARKET TALK: Red 5 Whacked Again; Gold Slides 


0050 GMT [Dow Jones] Investors clearly riled by postponement by Red 5 (RED.AU) of the first pour of gold at its Siana mine in the Philippines, marking shares down a further 11 cents or 6.7% to A$1.53 to be down 15% from Friday's close. Red 5 said Wednesday it plans minor engineering modifications to the plant after further problems emerged during plant commissioning and says it expects the costs to be "negligible." Investors have been more than patient with first pour of what is unhedged gold for Red 5 now at least a year behind schedule, and with spot gold sharply lower from year's high above US$1,900 foregoing returns on expected wide margins, which now have tightened somewhat. Spot gold loses US$1.70 from late New York, last bid US$1,554.60/oz, extending a decline after slumping from above US$1,590 on Wednesday. (ray.brindal@dowjones.com) 


Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140; MarketTalk@dowjones.com


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## Boggo (30 December 2011)

tech/a said:


> Boggo
> I'm thinking ABC correction ( for starters ) $1.50






Boggo said:


> Yes, likely to correct to around 1.44.
> Really needs to be back above 2.10 before the possibility of sub 1.50 "C" is ruled out.
> I have 6c at risk if my stop gets hit.




The reading of the tea leaves has overcome the the poggy factor by the looks of it.
I did think there was going to be be a bit of a bounce off the 'Min Wave C' but that got taken out convincingly and today we got to within two cents of the original prediction of $1.44 https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8971&p=676819&viewfull=1#post676819

Where to from here ?
Not for the faint hearted at the moment until the required reversal confirmation triggers are hit.

(click to expand)


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## mgm1a (30 December 2011)

boggo - well done take a bow. 

beatle - regarding the ann. on 28/12 - do you think they would have known about this before Christmas and were hanging back? 

The plastic like clay was mentioned in earlier ann. about their not continuing with one of the drill extensions to the pit...do you read the geology around is full of this stuff?? My thoughts wander over to KRM who have been plagued by clay, so hopeful that RED won't have too much


Happy New Year all & just remember even with POG down to $1450, RED's NPV is still worth 3 bucks.


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## mr. jeff (30 December 2011)

mgm1a said:


> boggo - well done take a bow.
> 
> beatle - regarding the ann. on 28/12 - do you think they would have known about this before Christmas and were hanging back?
> 
> ...




RED has a well defined JORC resource so they know exactly what to expect surely.
Where does all this surprise to management come from!!!? My understanding was that it was a muck heap that they fed in and that was what gave the problems, the implication being that the feed ore was completely different.


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## beatle (30 December 2011)

Greetings all, and lets hope that the new year can be considered Happy once RED get themselves sorted out!

Mgm1a, I have read the announcements many times in the past couple of days, and I have also had a chat with management. Its clear from the earlier announcement (14 Dec) that they had problems with regard to the clay content, since they referred to "...materials handling and gravity mass pull are the subject of on-going minor design and operating practice adjustments...", but they didn't put any more emphasis on it other than that statement. It seemed to be noted but glossed over as my reading of it goes!

With regard to the clay content, it has always been known that the ore was very soft, thus obtaining a clear advantage in terms of crushing/grinding/power consumptions, all of which can contribute to lower operating costs. And its good to know that they prepared for that lower crushing requirement with the impact crusher - an ideal application for it. It seems that the ore is now just sticking up at 2 transfer point and it will take a few more days to get this resolved with slght changes in those transfer points, and once resolved for the ultra-sticky low grade stockpile material which has been treated to date it should be more able to handle the ROM ore more easily.

As I mentioned in my last post, the question of throughput becomes more of the longer term question, and the jury remains open as to how close to base case production they can get - but noting that the base case didn't allow for a 1.1mtpa mill rate, it was based on lower througput rates closer to 0.8mtpa most years, ie in practice if they can achieve closer to 1.1mtpa annually it will be a very positive outcome for Siana. If they manage only to get a lower throughput rate then naturally the overall return will be lower, but presumably still much higher than base case due to the higher gold/silver price plus the level above base case throughput rate they can achieve.

Happy New Year to all RED observers/holders.


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## beatle (30 December 2011)

Hi Mr Jeff, your post went through as I was preparing mine so I didn't respond to your comment, and I would like to.

I don't disagree with you actually, that the stockpile ore was clearly there to see and they should have realised the likely impact of putting through such clayey ore. The question that we don't have the answer to is whether the ROM ore will have similar characteristics to the low grade stockpile especially at the water/ore interface in the pit-presumably the clay content is more an issue once the ore becomes wet.

The positive aspect is that the plant front end in terms of crusher and mill has been able to handle the clayey ore, its the two transfer points that need variation, according to the announcements. Thus I remain confident the process won't be affected long term, but thats now for RED to demonstrate to all of us.

Clearly this start up is disappointing though.


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## fwpike (30 December 2011)

I was not in favour of granting this management team increased remuneration at this time (to be paid out of capital). My stated preference was to wait until it was at least being paid out of the dividend flow. That would IMHO been a better motivator. I do not  know enough to say that more competence on management's behalf would have avoided these problems but either way I would prefer that they had been sharing the pain. 
However, thank you sellers, I have made a few thousand out of trading this volatility. Isn't the market amusing. A few hundred killed by flooding not too far away from this mine causes barely a tremor, a few bits of sticky clay causes this drop. If this mine was viable at $800 per ounce why the nervousness at $1500 odd?


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## badger7 (31 December 2011)

The only Red5 here in North America ia software company.

Yahoo financial quotes was slow to adjust for reverse split.

Did I hear there was a dilution with the issuance of additional shares.

in a previous post I posted an etf that is all Junior gold stocks... I wonder how RED 5 compares


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## LostMyShirt (31 December 2011)

2011 has been an utter joke for RED.

Weather hits, pour delayed from mid-year, then schedualed for Nov' - postponed to December, then years end, then who knows.

Consolidation announcement during HIGH LEVELS OF VOLATILITY and WORLD MARKET INSTABILITY.

RED Mgmt have proved time and time again that their timing is not only poor, but mis-managed. How is it that you can make Ann's time and time again at the worst possible times? Consolidation could have easily taken place after the new year - there are no new insto's that have gotten onboard RED because right after consolidation we get a gold slump! All of a sudden goldies are not looking A1 as they were percieved to be in Q3 2011.

If it is any consilation, gold shouldn't drop further than this. It SHOULDN'T, that doesn't mean it won't. I'm no sage.

RED has bottomed out. It s way under value, and the drop in price is due to trader involvement trying to snag a quickie fromt he pour- once that was off the tables, so was the money.

Patience, patience - patience spread thin like the last spec of jam on toast.

Boggo - I just wanted to mention that your T/A on the chart you posted - beautiful. More proof that this drop was due to trader involvement and not investors fleeting confidence.


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## mgm1a (1 January 2012)

this is on their website under News - may be a one-off or maybe something more regular and indicates at a board level their attention to shareholding movements and site visits by northern hemisphere instos

QUOTE
share market and share register reports

Red 5 traded approx. 5.5 million shares since the last report for the 23 November Board meeting, in a range $2.05 up to $2.34 post consolidation before closing at $1.78 (down 27 cents) as the gold market violently retreated (opened the period at US$1,724 per ounce, hit a high of US$1,750 per ounce and closed at US$1,576 per ounce).
The Red5 share price outperformed for most of the period but was down 13% against the XAU (down 3.7%) and HUI (down 5.2%), but strangely in-line with Philippino operators CGA and Medusa, as the delay in the gold pour was magnified by the gold price fall. Petra issued a significantly downgraded production forecast.

Shareholder movements of note were as follows:
● Trading activity initially responded the AGM dividend comment then diminished as the first gold pour date passed.
● EIM sold 100,00 shares (balance 1.55 million)
● Other notable sellers – Eau Rouge (old guard) -330,000 shares and Jose Leviste (400,00 shares). Countered by new buyers in the 500,000 plus category.
● Overall, the number of shareholders decreased by 117 to 3,970 – down for the first time in nine months. The reduction in shareholders was 90% in the 10,000 to 100,000 range (previously 100,000 to 1 million shares on a pre-consolidation basis).

Completed IR activity

● CIBC (Brian Quast-Toronto) group site visit on 5 December 2011 - Yev Ruzhitsky (Equinox New York), Charles Fawcett (Earth Resources – London), Ramon Perrez (Carrelton – Florida) and Rebecca O’Dwyer (Colonial – Sydney)
● Substantial broker and shareholder enquiry traffic as the gold pour date passed

Scheduled IR Activity
● Conference call – Evans and Partners/Caledonia on 23 December 2011
● Casimir New York conference 26/27 March 2012

First Advisors are expected to have an updated beneficial shareholder report on 21 December.

There were two Company ASX releases – Share Consolidation complete (7 December) and First Production Gold status (14 December) plus AGM statutory advices.

CG Jackson 16 December 2011
END QUOTE


beatle et al...they know when you sell out!!


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## tech/a (1 January 2012)

Boggo - I just wanted to mention that your T/A on the chart you posted - beautiful. *More proof that this drop was due to trader involvement and not investors fleeting confidence.*

Really
How does it prove this?
I look forward to enlightenment.


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## Dougs Antiques (1 January 2012)

Im in at $1.50 and as far Im concerned that is a good entry (last close $1.62).
Im running a tight stop and will take quick profits if it drops, Hopefully we can see a rise to $1.80  or more and I will be happy.
GO RED GO!!!


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## Starcraftmazter (2 January 2012)

LostMyShirt said:


> RED has bottomed out. It s way under value.




That is dangerous thinking. $1100 gold is predicted in the gold thread. Could be an opportunity for those who are patient.

Overall at the moment there is just not a strong enough case for a sustained rally. It could happen sure, but I would rather sit and wait.


----------



## Dougs Antiques (2 January 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> That is dangerous thinking. $1100 gold is predicted in the gold thread. Could be an opportunity for those who are patient.
> 
> Overall at the moment there is just not a strong enough case for a sustained rally. It could happen sure, but I would rather sit and wait.



 IMO I dont think we will see gold @ $1000 in the near forseeable futre.
I think more like a low of possibly $1440 to $1460 with a high of $1620 to $1680.
I will provide this assumption  in a chart format if anyone cares to see it.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (2 January 2012)

Dougs Antiques said:


> IMO I dont think we will see gold @ $1000 in the near forseeable futre.
> I think more like a low of possibly $1440 to $1460 with a high of $1620 to $1680.
> I will provide this assumption  in a chart format if anyone cares to see it.




I think  $1300-$1400 is possible. There will need to be some hint of QE3 before its over $2000 IMO.


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## Dougs Antiques (2 January 2012)

IMO RED is still good value at 16c or as we now know it in the $1.60 region.
At $1.50 its a bargin, if it goes below $1.50 I will be buying up.
This is only my opinion and no-one should act on my thoughts.
See what happened to PEN (nothing is ever a definate in this volatile market)
Although RED have a very bright future if the management would just start to look after its owners ,THE SHARE HOLDERS


----------



## jancha (3 January 2012)

Agree that REDs management has been slow in keeping share holders up to date with progress and not delivered on given time frames but even so with that why should REDs sp be at lower level than it was when institutes buying in at 17c $1.70?
Nothing has really changed other than the resource being upgraded and the plant being completed other than a few hiccups production shouldn't be far off.
Even with POG dropping it doesn't explain why the current price of $1.60 or 16c old sp should be justified.
 Is it possible for Institutes and management to play down RED and manipulate the sp to profit from it?

Boggo Tech i see why charting has it's advantages as fundamentals here dont add up.


----------



## Chasero (3 January 2012)

The thing about red is that management has a terrible history of giving less than stellar announcements. AND they are few and always late.

The delayed gold pour, then delayed again in november, then negative news with problems given in MID december (Why wasnt this news provided beginning of december??) on top of falling gold prices hit RED hard.

Fundamentals are there, but perception of mgmt is hitting it hard imo.

If I were invested in a gold stock, it wouldn't be in RED atm.. (currently holding NST again as of today for a quick trade with stop losses)


----------



## jancha (3 January 2012)

Chasero said:


> The thing about red is that management has a terrible history of giving less than stellar announcements. AND they are few and always late.
> 
> The delayed gold pour, then delayed again in november, then negative news with problems given in MID december (Why wasnt this news provided beginning of december??) on top of falling gold prices hit RED hard.
> 
> ...




Doesn't really explain where the sp is and even with the POG as it and management being slack. The sp was well above this before insto getting in at 17c. Other than the obvious it doesn't justify it to where it is.
Iam still in RED and would be buying more in RED at these prices over NST at it's current price.IMHO But i can understand your frustration in getting out.


----------



## LostMyShirt (3 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Boggo - I just wanted to mention that your T/A on the chart you posted - beautiful. *More proof that this drop was due to trader involvement and not investors fleeting confidence.*
> 
> Really
> How does it prove this?
> I look forward to enlightenment.




I may be wrong - but my reasoning is that if a stock with heavy trader involvement demonstrates DOW theory prediction then it is due to the stock being traded rather than invested in. When investors, like insto's start pulling out then that's bad news, and the pattern would show abnormalities. Since consolidation RED has been traded more frequently and follows the movements of the Ords now.

You know I'm just a beginner Tech/a, but that was the conclusion I came to. I may be wrong and am in a lot of cases. Still, that doesn't stop me from at least putting the opinion out there.

StarcraftMaster - Yes I see your point. I understand the downfalls of considering a dropping SP from original range as a "bargain". My reasoning on this was that due to other drops that RED has demonstrated in the past, it always has been snapping back into it's range. Also taking into account that there is no dire situation in the company as they are close to moving into production and its financial situation, I see no reason for fleeting confidence and majour correction.


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## tech/a (3 January 2012)

Do you actually understand Dow Theory?

What's it got to do with RED?
Or this discussion?

It's actually following the Gold price
Not suprising


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## LostMyShirt (3 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Do you actually understand Dow Theory?
> 
> What's it got to do with RED?
> Or this discussion?
> ...




I'm not a DOW theory expert, no. More of an L plater if you ask me. 

I claimed that the volatility was due to more-so trader involvement rather than fleeting investor confidence. 

Gold price is indeed a contributing factor as Q3 2011 hikes saw RED appreciate. Drops saw the reverse, naturally.

In RED's defence I'd say that the current value of Gold exceeds that done in feasibility study whos forcasted price exceeds the current and previous 52 week high.

Anyway, by the sounds of things I'm probably wrong. Shall ponder further.


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## Boggo (3 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Do you actually understand Dow Theory?
> 
> What's it got to do with RED?
> Or this discussion?
> ...




Thanks tech/a, the visual confirmation.

(click to expand)


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## tech/a (3 January 2012)

Well I guess it's following ONE aspect of Dow theory
Lower highs lower lows.

For those interested
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_theory
Dow Theory


----------



## LostMyShirt (3 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Well I guess it's following ONE aspect of Dow theory
> Lower highs lower lows.
> 
> For those interested
> ...




I'd say most people know what DOW theory is. I went and threw in the term "DOW theory" when I probably just should have thrown in "technical pattern" or something, I don't know. Terminology bad.

Regarding the claim I made, is there anything about that in which you wish to comment? Is there any reason to think LT investor confidence is fleeting?


----------



## tech/a (3 January 2012)

LostMyShirt said:


> I'd say most people know what DOW theory is. I went and threw in the term "DOW theory" when I probably just should have thrown in "technical pattern" or something, I don't know. Terminology bad.
> 
> Regarding the claim I made, is there anything about that in which you wish to comment? Is there any reason to think LT investor confidence is fleeting?




At what point do you believe LT investors would leave RED?
Longterm investors may or may not remain longterm due to any number of reasons.
I'm yet to see a course of trades identifying investor or trader type involved in a trade.

Frankly I saw the comment as baseless.


----------



## LostMyShirt (3 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> At what point do you believe LT investors would leave RED?
> Longterm investors may or may not remain longterm due to any number of reasons.
> I'm yet to see a course of trades identifying investor or trader type involved in a trade.
> 
> Frankly I saw the comment as baseless.




Haha  Well fair enough. 

Rather than analyzing trade by trade and coming up with the theory; I had deduced that because consolidation exposed the stock, and volatility increased and further followed the movements of the ASX, more active trades are taking place. In fact, when you explained that the share price moved closer to that of the Gold price, the deduction made more sense since these by the minute indications were what, in my belief, traders follow.

That is all. Nothing overly complicated, just a simple deduction.


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## tech/a (3 January 2012)

I would argue that many longterm gold investors have closed their positions.

Evidently one longterm holder of RED has finished selling his holdings in RED.

_*Mathews*_

Over looked conveniently I think!


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## LostMyShirt (3 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> I would argue that many longterm gold investors have closed their positions.
> 
> Evidently one longterm holder of RED has finished selling his holdings in RED.
> 
> ...




Matthews has been selling out for quite a while now, first I took notice of it was through an Announcement during Q3 2011. Petra on the other hand upgraded its target. 

When you say "finished" does that mean Matthews no longer listed as a substantial holder? I have not looked at the list as of late.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (3 January 2012)

jancha said:


> Doesn't really explain where the sp is and even with the POG as it and management being slack. The sp was well above this before insto getting in at 17c. Other than the obvious it doesn't justify it to where it is.




Risk risk risk justifies it....

So far RED is yet to prove it can do anything without significant delays and problems. Once it does it will surely be boosted in sp, but until then there's too much risk. 

RED's margin is what, $800/oz? There are MSM people who are saying gold is now in a downtrend/bear market, etc. All idiots of course, but that doesn't change much.

Gold needs to reconquer good technicals and RED needs to show production, then it will go to $2 and much higher IMO. This is the fundamental analysis.


Technically, I will say that apart from slightly higher _overall_ trading volumes, I would describe them as sporadic more than anything. Apart from that, technically it does not look good to me, but I defer to others due to my lack of experience here.

I think the direction of RED in the short-term will be determined by the longevity or short-liveliness (thats a word right?) of the current gold rally. I do not think there will be any noteworthy news for at least a month.


I am still watching this by the day, there will be a time in 2012 when it will be a stellar buy. Unless they screw up with production of course... 



LostMyShirt said:


> When you say "finished" does that mean Matthews no longer listed as a substantial holder? I have not looked at the list as of late.




I believe that's correct.


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## LostMyShirt (4 January 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Risk risk risk justifies it....
> 
> So far RED is yet to prove it can do anything without significant delays and problems. Once it does it will surely be boosted in sp, but until then there's too much risk.
> 
> ...




Righto - so Matthews is out. could be for any number of reasons but I doubt it is the fundamentals.

With RED's delays, I do admit they are extremely frustrating. I was hoping to head into the new year with a gold bar (pour) at the very least. I am optimistic though. I didn't think they _wouldnt_ run into any issues setting up their mine for the first time and I suppose a slight delay or two should be expected. The real majour delay was the rain all that time back that flooded the pit and since then it was uptrending until the drop off the peak.



Yeah, there are many risks, but I think those risks will be undone in time. They got the Gold, they got the machine and they got the money. Unless they find out it's fools gold or something, I don't see anyone getting bitten in the medium to long term. Short term? I don't know.


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## Starcraftmazter (4 January 2012)

The gold rally continues, touching $1600 now. Good leads from US markets, so RED should continue up for now I think.

Another matter I've been curious about, when is the next rain season and what makes you guys think the mine won't get flooded again this year?


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## Chasero (4 January 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Another matter I've been curious about, when is the next rain season and what makes you guys think the mine won't get flooded again this year?




Curious about that as well.

Isn't medusa mining or some other big mine near RED as well and their mines didn't get flooded while RED's mines did?

Curious..


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## fastbuck1 (4 January 2012)

Chasero said:


> Curious about that as well.
> 
> Isn't medusa mining or some other big mine near RED as well and their mines didn't get flooded while RED's mines did?
> 
> Curious..




red was draining the pit during record rain fall , they now have an empty pit ,i beleive some kind of aquafire releif system was also drilled into the pit, red also has metioned that wet weather  won't be a problem once in production....trucks are 6x6 ect...


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## beatle (4 January 2012)

Some very interesting posts, and actually the gloomed worked in my favour - it assisted to push the price of RED down way below where I could ever have imagined, thus I decided rather than post to put a more balanced view of the true situation I took advantage and kept silent and bought more shares, lol!

Thanks guys for all the negativity, it looks good in my portfolio of RED which are ready for the rebound. If you want to push it down to the $1.40's again just let me know, I will gobble up some more!

As for the pit, Fastbuck is correct, the pit has been full of water soon after the old mine was finished in 1989! Whilst there was a lot of rain and water continuing to pour into the pit during the wet season this last year, the pit is effectively now removed of water to the extent that RED want to have it. Their pumping capacity is considerable if there happened to be a requirement to empty the pit, the only issue being the extent of water that can be put into the river system at any time.

Of course there has been a lot of concern about the gold production that is way behind, due to material handling issues that are being worked on at the moment. I understand that the transfer points are almost done and once that happens the first cyanide will be put in the tanks. At the moment the pulp densities are at operating levels, of around 35% in 5of the 6 tanks, they are just waiting for the front end changes to be completed.

And Chasero, there is nothing curious about MML not having a flooded pit - its actually due to the fact that they have an underground operation and not an open pit, lol! 

And I'm expecting that Matthews liquidation is just about done now as well, great timing as he can't influence the market so easily with just a few million shares (perhaps less now!) left in his kitty. Whatever reason Matthews has been sold, its clearly nothing related to his understanding of the fundamentals of Siana, it probably relates to his own investing strategy re gold equities or similar. 

Good luck all RED holders.


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## Chasero (4 January 2012)

beatle said:


> S
> 
> And Chasero, there is nothing curious about MML not having a flooded pit - its actually due to the fact that they have an underground operation and not an open pit, lol!




What are the advantages of having an open pit?

The open pit in tropical weather has delayed the first gold pour by what 7 months now?

Is it cheaper to produce gold this way? Or will it take longer?


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## jancha (4 January 2012)

Beatle i dont think you should be thanking the guys on this thread for REDs fall in share price. You should be thanking REDs management on the sp slump.
Did RED give a time frame in how long it would take to iron out this so called minor delay in production?
 Gold was up 2.5% today and so was most other gold stocks except for RED. Say no more.


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## Starcraftmazter (4 January 2012)

Chasero said:


> What are the advantages of having an open pit?
> 
> The open pit in tropical weather has delayed the first gold pour by what 7 months now?
> 
> Is it cheaper to produce gold this way? Or will it take longer?




I don't think RED had much of a choice, as the mine was already an open pit.

Anyway, pretty embarrassing performance today, being down on a day like this.


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## tech/a (5 January 2012)

jancha said:


> Beatle i dont think you should be thanking the guys on this thread for REDs fall in share price. You should be thanking REDs management on the sp slump.
> Did RED give a time frame in how long it would take to iron out this so called minor delay in production?
> Gold was up 2.5% today and so was most other gold stocks except for RED. Say no more.




I think he should be considering what the market is telling him.
Not pig headedly insisting that he is the only " enlightened " investor in  RED.
Both can be very costly.


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## beatle (5 January 2012)

Jancha, I don't disagree with you, for sure RED management have got a lot to answer for with regard to reporting status at such a critical time.

I'm not aware of the timing of the first gold pour, RED has made a decision that they prefer to get the front end right before they start putting cyanide into the plant, as they want to keep the process going once they push the start button. And since materials handling issues are as much an art as a science they have to use trial and error to some degree once they think its been sorted out.

I understand they are slowly building up a ROM ore stockpile, and sampling has indicated that the gold grades are as expected, but they don't want to put it in until the process works without excessive stoppages. 

Tech/a, if I listened to what the market said then any share you want to knock will go down to zero eventually, you have just as much said that about RED in comparing it to PEN. I don't follow PEN but have seen the chart of it and believe your comments don't apply whatsoever. After all, you read charts, you don't have a clue about a mining project, and for your means you don't need to know about actual activities of the company. But since you don't own any shares in RED, and have never owned any shares in RED, then I think your comments are more about trying to take advantage of the situation to stir up RED shareholders.  And as I have said before, you helped me buy RED at lower prices so thanks for that!


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## tech/a (5 January 2012)

> Tech/a, if I listened to what the market said then any share you want to knock will go down to zero eventually, you have just as much said that about RED in comparing it to PEN.




I've not compared the two stocks only the dogged insistance that all is well in the face of evidence that all is NOT WELL.



> I don't follow PEN but have seen the chart of it and believe your comments don't apply whatsoever.




In the context above I disagree ----



> After all, you read charts, you don't have a clue about a mining project, and for your means you don't need to. But since you don't own any shares in RED, and have never owned any shares in RED, then I think your comments are more about trying to take advantage of the situation to stir up RED shareholders. And as I have said before, you helped me buy RED at lower prices so thanks for that!




On the contrary
I believe my opinion and view is WITHOUT Bias.
If I saw an opportunity and I dont yet---you'd support my views.

(A) Buying as a share drops will one day wipe you out--or your holding at least.
(B) It could also make you very rich.

Problem is the # of (A'S) far exceeds the Number of (B'S)

The only way I know of increasing (B'S) is to join the show when the vast majority agree with you!


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## jancha (5 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> I think he should be considering what the market is telling him.
> Not pig headedly insisting that he is the only " enlightened " investor in  RED.
> Both can be very costly.




The Market can also be deceptive. Eg. DOM continually dropped to below $2 before shooting back up to well over $3 before being taken over by Kingsgate.
Bought thinking it was a good buy ($2.08) but stopped out at $1.92 before the turn around the very next day.
I'm not a chart reader but in DOMs case would have you seen the writing on the wall by looking at the charts?
I dont think RED fundamentally is a company going nowhere and just needs better management reporting to share holders.
With gold prices rising so should RED as it has in the past but it hasn't this time suggesting that the price is either being manipulated or that frustrated share holders are selling. At least i hope it's just that and no other hidden issue.


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## tech/a (5 January 2012)

jancha said:


> The Market can also be deceptive. Eg. DOM continually dropped to below $2 before shooting back up to well over $3 before being taken over by Kingsgate.
> Bought thinking it was a good buy ($2.08) but stopped out at $1.92 before the turn around the very next day.
> I'm not a chart reader but in DOMs case would have you seen the writing on the wall by looking at the charts?
> I dont think RED fundamentally is a company going nowhere and just needs better management reporting to share holders.
> With gold prices rising so should RED as it has in the past but it hasn't this time suggesting that the price is either being manipulated or that frustrated share holders are selling. At least i hope it's just that and no other hidden issue.




DOM
Means nothing in my view to future market price.
Those who are committed to buying or selling the stock will buy and sell *at market.*

RED's
In ability to gain price while gold itself gains says only ONE THING
Lack of demand for RED.


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## skc (5 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> DOM
> Means nothing in my view to future market price.
> Those who are committed to buying or selling the stock will buy and sell *at market.*
> 
> ...




DOM = Dominion Mining (another gold miner), not depth of market.


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## jancha (5 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> DOM
> Means nothing in my view to future market price.
> Those who are committed to buying or selling the stock will buy and sell *at market.*
> 
> ...




Lack of demand for RED has to have a REASON as in the past it has had support and followed the pog so why not now? Perhaps Tech it has something to do with the delay and so when its up and running so should the demand. Simple


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## beatle (5 January 2012)

Jancha you make some interesting comments re RED and how its running now. And from what I'm aware there is no other hidden issue that hasn't been already noted. 

BUT, and I know this is controversial and its my pure speculation that I have got no proof of whatsoever (AND I'm rarely into conspiracy theories!), I have wondered if RED management has decided not to report more often due to it not wanting to keep certain investor(s) well informed when they have already made a decision to sell out.

 And yes, I'm referring specifically to Matthews. I wonder if there has been some bad blood between RED and Matthews for some time now, and that has resulted in very poor communications between the two groups. OF course that's a huge speculation by me, its something no one could ever prove, but its something I wonder about as the time goes by. And once Matthews is out then that is not an issue any more! Here's hoping they are moving closer to zero shares each day - I still believe Matthew's selling has been an ongoing factor in RED's share price!

Tech/a, you started making negative comments about RED WELL BEFORE the gold was due to be poured in Nov! So thus your comments re PEN and any issues re RED "...I've not compared the two stocks only the dogged insistance that all is well in the face of evidence that all is NOT WELL." had no proof of anything going wrong at that stage! IF you really do have 20 odd employees working for you then seems to me you spend a lot of time trying to wreak havoc on investors in companies that you have no other reason to post on! And yes you can have the last word if you wish on this subject, I have given you my views.

Good luck to RED holders.


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## LostMyShirt (5 January 2012)

No one should really be getting upset with Tech/a. There is nothing wrong with objectivity, challenge and debate. Non Bias opinions are what many people thrive on, and when searching for stock banter I tend to observe unbiased controversy rather than bias ramping (not that I am accusing anyone of doing so).

Now, in my honest opinion; Tech/a is a T/A. And as far as T/A goes on RED, it is up the creek. Lack of demand, falling share price and a depth from hell. Heck, I know it is early, but someone jumping the gun may very well see the stock in a downtrend for the short term.

One thing I believe Tech/a is overlooking is the fundamentals, which is what most people here are using as a counter argument. Honestly, the fundamental argument trumps the technical aspect of RED. Technicals WILL CHANGE the moment progression takes its route. The current technical state has little to no impact on the future of RED.

Using Matthew as a counter argument for bad sentiment is just terrible. We don't know the reasoning behind Matthew selling out. Quite frankly, they left with a profit. Am I to understand the other substantial holders are idiots, or perhaps Matthew knows something no one else does? To add insult to injury, Petra buys more stock, and upgrades its price target? 

When Debtless RED goes into production with its upgraded reserve, you think the technicals are going to hold any water? Of-course not. In fact the reason for the bad technicals is because of the delay on the pour - and whoever expects a seamless unhindered application of mass mining equipment to be turned on and used without calibration, without testing or caution, is kidding themselves.

The ONLY technical aspect on the RED chart (even though the pattern is thrown off due to the consolidations move to REDDA) is the resistance level being held twice, and not smacking bottom in frequency.

So, am I to understand that debtless RED with upgraded reserves is NOT going into production? Give me a reason why they will not transition into production. Or perhaps you do believe they will produce, but continue to a downtrend? How does any of this make sense in the history of emerging companies and investing. If this were the case, no one would make money.


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## Boggo (5 January 2012)

beatle said:


> Tech/a, you started making negative comments about RED WELL BEFORE the gold was due to be poured in Nov! So thus your comments re PEN and any issues re RED "...I've not compared the two stocks only the dogged insistance that all is well in the face of evidence that all is NOT WELL." had no proof of anything going wrong at that stage! IF you really do have 20 odd employees working for you then seems to me you spend a lot of time trying to wreak havoc on investors in companies that you have no other reason to post on! And yes you can have the last word if you wish on this subject, I have given you my views.




Beatle Beatle Beatle, read what you are typing, you are completely missing the point.

tech/a has never made negative comments, you need to recognise the difference between statements regarding what a stock is likely to do technically and what you would like it to do but you have completely missed the point.

Both my references and tech/a's to PEN have nothing to do with the actual PEN stock, it has to do with that same "I have bought and I am right, I will take over this thread and I will scorn anyone who doesn't agree" mentality.

This is the RED thread, not the Beatle thread and any comments on here that don't agree with your views are not an attack on you or anyone else that may have a 'I will self destruct rather than be wrong' mentality.

If you really believe that half a dozen "negative" poster's on here can influence the price of 'your' stock then allow me to get my armchair and popcorn because this can only get funnier and further from the reality of making money and that is assuming that that is why you are here in the first place.


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## skc (5 January 2012)

LostMyShirt said:


> So, am I to understand that debtless RED with upgraded reserves is NOT going into production? Give me a reason why they will not transition into production. *Or perhaps you do believe they will produce, but continue to a downtrend? How does any of this make sense in the history of emerging companies and investing. If this were the case, no one would make money.*




See AED for a good example where death begins on production... I am sure there are others.

Not saying that's what will happen with RED, just saying anything is possible.


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## LostMyShirt (5 January 2012)

skc said:


> See AED for a good example where death begins on production... I am sure there are others.
> 
> Not saying that's what will happen with RED, just saying anything is possible.




Will take a look, SKC.

Before I do, is there any main contributing factor to the downtrend? Perhaps it is overall market sentiment or a lack of reaching targets etc?

I am having a look at the chart from its listing point until now - wow, yuk.


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## skc (5 January 2012)

LostMyShirt said:


> Will take a look, SKC.
> 
> Before I do, is there any main contributing factor to the downtrend? Perhaps it is overall market sentiment or a lack of reaching targets etc?
> 
> I am having a look at the chart from its listing point until now - wow, yuk.




The usual story... what they thought was there wasn't there, and what was there was harder to get out then they thought they would.

Trading/investing is hard because, sometimes you need to respect what the market is saying and acknowledge defeat, while other times you need to be defiant in the face of terrible downtrends.

But a lot of the time, the technicals offer a window into the fundamentals... and a healthy respect never goes astray.


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## LostMyShirt (5 January 2012)

skc said:


> The usual story... what they thought was there wasn't there, and what was there was harder to get out then they thought they would.
> 
> Trading/investing is hard because, sometimes you need to respect what the market is saying and acknowledge defeat, while other times you need to be defiant in the face of terrible downtrends.
> 
> But a lot of the time, the technicals offer a window into the fundamentals... and a healthy respect never goes astray.




I see your point and do agree.

I am skeptical on the RED technicals because I believe they are influenced by the short termers upset about pour delay. However your point is solid and it has been heeded.

The issue with AED is a concern for me with RED. If RED finds that there is nothing down there, or perhaps even fools gold  then I am quite sure an AED repeat would happen. Although in this case the fundamentals influenced the technicals.

Technically the 06-07 run was quite promising and it seems the vertical drop was influenced by the reasons you stated.

I don't hold all my egss in a technical basket, but I am aware of the information technicals can provide and am not stupid enough to not heed them. Personally, for me, this is a case of defiance against a trend based on confidence of fundamentals, and I think many other holders if taken the time to analyze their psychology on their position would agree.

I did however take a technical position on some indication it would ounce off 1.80 back into its range, but as a result of that mistake I am now in the pool for a longer period of time. For the short term, the chart sucks. I don't think anyone would dispute that.


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## tech/a (5 January 2012)

> I've not compared the two stocks only the dogged insistance that all is well in the face of evidence that all is NOT WELL.




Evidence was a stagnant price action 
Followed by an obvious pricing into the stock price the initial pour.
Followed by lack of interest and a falling stock price.

Evidence you dont wish to acknowledge.



> Technicals WILL CHANGE the moment progression takes its route. The current technical state has little to no impact on the future of RED.




And when and if they do then Ill trade it.
Why sit and watch as it goes from 18c to 23 cents to 15 cents??

Your right fundamentals do change and currently Im seeing less than positive fundamentals coming out for this company.

So too are those UNINTERESTED in trading RED.

But *AGAIN* there are some here who cant see anything other than what they want to see.



> I'm not a chart reader but in DOMs case would have you seen the writing on the wall by looking at the charts?




No and you wont be able to foresee a delisting or bankruptcy through Fundamental analysis either.
If your a serious and profitable trader while one or 2 of these a year may dent your portfolio it wont kill you.

But lets take the case of beatle here.
If by some out there reason RED stopped trading If what he says is true then he would lose most if not all of his nett worth!!
Im sure as hell sure thats not a wise position to put yourself in.


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## LostMyShirt (5 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> And when and if they do then Ill trade it.
> Why sit and watch as it goes from 18c to 23 cents to 15 cents??
> 
> Your right fundamentals do change and currently Im seeing less than positive fundamentals coming out for this company.
> ...




Why sit? I believe because some are aiming at a longer term trade than a shorter one however onlooking with keen interest.

"Your right fundamentals do change and currently Im seeing less than positive fundamentals coming out for this company."

Ok, now we're getting somewhere. Why, Tech/a?

BTW, I don't think ANYONE would dispute the last point with you. If the basket drops, all the eggs are gone. That is a pretty bad position to put yourself in indeed.

Personally, I've made sever bad choices based on technicals alone, when it comes to stocks. One example was the price of a particular oil company in which became stagnant, and showed a lack of demand as well as constant offloading into the market. 40 cents was the price at the time of the stagnant trend, as well as testing bottom frequently - now worth almost 90 cents. The reason for the increase was information being put out to the market on the progress of their project.


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## Boggo (5 January 2012)

skc said:


> See AED for a good example where death begins on production... I am sure there are others.




Aaaah *AED*, now why is it that I remember you and why do I keep hammering on about NOT believing in the BS produced by the management of any company and because of you I have found a way to see through the crap.

*Oh yes, I remember now, you cost me a lot of money.*
I would also like to thank you because of you I have actually made up for that loss many times over mainly because of your lesson you have taught me never to trust anyone other manager other than me with my money.

I look at this every so often and am reminded of it on this thread...


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## Chasero (5 January 2012)

The lack of upward movement in sp is down to 2 factors:
1) disinterested buyers/sellers
2) price manipulation.

I wouldn't rush to ignore point 2 completely (as RED has had days where pog went up considerably and the sp remained constant or in the red and vice versa)

The reason I opted out was because management has proven time and time that negative announcements from red has become the norm.

I think investors are waiting for a positive ann to come obviously to see any big impact on the sp


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## LostMyShirt (5 January 2012)

Boggo said:


> Aaaah *AED*, now why is it that I remember you and why do I keep hammering on about NOT believing in the BS produced by the management of any company and because of you I have found a way to see through the crap.
> 
> *Oh yes, I remember now, you cost me a lot of money.*
> I would also like to thank you because of you I have actually made up for that loss many times over mainly because of your lesson you have taught me never to trust anyone other manager other than me with my money.
> ...




Yyyyuk. Your attached picture makes me want to vomit. It makes me thankful I now diversify and only have a small holding in RED as opposed to my old status which was overweight severely.

But wow, that picture is a snapshot of what hell looks like.

Chasero - probably a good move. The management of this company sucks. The most ignorant bunch of fellows who could not care less about keeping their shareholders updated.


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## Boggo (5 January 2012)

LostMyShirt said:


> Yyyyuk. Your attached picture makes me want to vomit. It makes me thankful I now diversify and only have a small holding in RED as opposed to my old status which was overweight severely.
> 
> But wow, that picture is a snapshot of what hell looks like.




Hopefully my posts (negative or however they are seen) make more sense now, they can be a shortcut through that stage if you want to listen.
I can tell that tech/a may have had a learning experience or two as well and probably does not want to see anyone else go down the same track.

Sorry if this is somewhat off the topic of RED, it is possible though that it could be relevant !!!!

Back to RED folks


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## LostMyShirt (5 January 2012)

Boggo said:


> Hopefully my posts (negative or however they are seen) make more sense now, they can be a shortcut through that stage if you want to listen.
> I can tell that tech/a may have had a learning experience or two as well and probably does not want to see anyone else go down the same track.
> 
> Sorry if this is somewhat off the topic of RED, it is possible though that it could be relevant !!!!
> ...




I sincerely hope not.


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## tech/a (5 January 2012)

> 40 cents was the price at the time of the stagnant trend, as well as testing bottom frequently - now worth almost 90 cents.




Ill bet there are clear technical buy signals.

As For RED.
 I'm opting for the Blue option.





Thats right $1.20


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## LostMyShirt (5 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Ill bet there are clear technical buy signals.
> 
> As For RED.
> I'm opting for the Blue option.
> ...




Possibely. dpends what you consider a "buy signal".

As for your T/A on RED - it's valid I suppose. T/A is an art, not science. It may or may not hit that target, but in the face of the fundamentals, that is a price that doesn't make sense. Many contributing factors would have to set in in order for that price to hold. However there are contributing factors to suggest a price of 1.20 will be unrealistic. Heck, I say 1.50 resistance will hold out yet another test. $1.20 based on a single analysis ignoring all other factors makes sense only to the analysis, and not the reality of the matter.


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## Chasero (5 January 2012)

Quick question, if the battle between Iran and US heats up, what would happen to the price of gold?

We all know what happened to the POO last night


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## Dougs Antiques (5 January 2012)

LostMyShirt said:


> Possibely. dpends what you consider a "buy signal".
> 
> As for your T/A on RED - it's valid I suppose. T/A is an art, not science. It may or may not hit that target, but in the face of the fundamentals, that is a price that doesn't make sense. Many contributing factors would have to set in in order for that price to hold. However there are contributing factors to suggest a price of 1.20 will be unrealistic. Heck, I say 1.50 resistance will hold out yet another test. $1.20 based on a single analysis ignoring all other factors makes sense only to the analysis, and not the reality of the matter.




The problem with the plant is that the marerial is blocking up on the sharp bends (I assume) so some of the belt structure will need to be redisigned and moved to provide a suitable curve to create laminer flow of the product.
In order to do this some of the structure will need to be removed altered (to make a larger curve) and then replaced.
Now depending on the difficulty and weather conditions (now the wet season) will controll how long that this will take.
If it can be done in short period of time I doubt if we will see sub $1.50 but if it takes 8 weeks or more because of the weather RED could possibly see $1.20 with a few ups and downs on the chart.
I recently bought a parcel $1.50 and sold(stopped out) at $1.60 when it hit $1.62 then dropped to $1.60.
At this stage im on the sideline but if I do rebuy it will be with a close stop to protect my capitol.
*I too have been stung by not using a stop and now I will always set up a trade with a $400 risk* and when that trade is up $400 I will double my holding and bring the stop to $0.00(on the first parcel) so that my risk is still only $400 then with this in place let it run while increasing my stop accordingly (this way I protect my capitol and lock in profits).
My 
I dont hold ATM


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## LostMyShirt (5 January 2012)

Dougs Antiques said:


> The problem with the plant is that the marerial is blocking up on the sharp bends (I assume) so some of the belt structure will need to be redisigned and moved to provide a suitable curve to create laminer flow of the product.
> In order to do this some of the structure will need to be removed altered (to make a larger curve) and then replaced.
> Now depending on the difficulty and weather conditions (now the wet season) will controll how long that this will take.
> If it can be done in short period of time I doubt if we will see sub $1.50 but if it takes 8 weeks or more because of the weather RED could possibly see $1.20 with a few ups and downs on the chart.
> ...




G'day Dougie,

seems you know quite a bit about the mining machinery - top stuff man 

Weather conditions seems to be the only factor that is relevant as opposed to trivial situations or logistical problems.

I will say that weather is the least of my concerns, though. Keeping in mind that pit was flooded without contingency, now alternate flow mechanisms are put in place.

If what you say does happen per the 8 week length of time, then yes we may see yet another drop. However this drop may very well be the retailer and not the insto selling out. This is a matter of who is all the more patient.

Beyond all the trivialities, I will no longer hold concern when the machine is done. At this time it is indeed a risk, but not a risk of total loss - more-so a risk of lengthened time and locking away funds that may go to better use elsewhere.

Luckily for me, I am not all in for RED - diversification is beautiful, but a bastard when you are sunk negative on all stocks due to the downward trend the ASX is showing. Luckily again, the negativity is minimal and stops are a furlong away.

Here is a quote from the last ann;

*The crusher, apron feeder, conveyors, SAG mill, cyclone and gravity concentrator equipment choice and respective commissioning phases have met or exceeded expectations; however, the discontinuous flow of material through two transfer points requires further minor engineering. The engineering modifications, which are primarily geometry changes to the flow presentation, are expected to be of negligible cost. *

When I read this I see logistical issues and not dire eye popping concerns. However that is only my opinion. On that note, the minimal cost in bringing out the engi's does not seem to have the MGMT sweating over their balance sheet.

I can only go by the information provided and at this time I do not see any cause for alarm. I am sure we have all been in the situation when a decent stock at a decent buy takes a dip due to market flow only to find panic selling out and recovery trumping losses well into the green. Well, I believe this to be one of those situations. If news of pour is the only thing keeping the SP stagnant, then panic for minor challenges is just unreasonable, which leads me to believe LT investors are still in the game.

T/A may win the battle, but Fundi's surely will win the war.


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## jancha (5 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Ill bet there are clear technical buy signals.
> 
> As For RED.
> I'm opting for the Blue option.
> ...




Anythings possible but unless something is seriously wrong with RED i'd be fairly confident that at its $1.58sp it would hit $1.90 before ever dropping to $1.20.
And if you had to stake your reputation on it which would you truely choose Tech?


----------



## Dougs Antiques (5 January 2012)

LostMyShirt said:


> G'day Dougie,
> 
> seems you know quite a bit about the mining machinery - top stuff man



LOLZ I know nothing about mines, but what I do understand is laminer flow, Ive been involved in making cars go FAST....in partiticular NITROUS OXIDE and laminer flow is very important so it isnt to lean off (due to lack of fuel) so in this instance sweeping bends must be used in place of tight bends for the same reasons that RED needs to restructure certain aspects to ensure that slow bends dont impede the following fuel.
I refuse to follow a stock down...I will get out and rebuy when I feel there is an upside according to the charts until fundementals take over.


----------



## tech/a (5 January 2012)

To be honest I would take a trade at this point.
But if you bought the low of this current move with a stop at the bottom of the spike 
that would be a valid albeit low probability trade---technically.


----------



## Dougs Antiques (5 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> To be honest I would take a trade at this point.
> But if you bought the low of this current move with a stop at the bottom of the spike
> that would be a valid albeit low probability trade---technically.




If it breaks below $1.50 at this stage just watch all of the conditional stops get opened up IMO


----------



## tech/a (5 January 2012)

Dougs Antiques said:


> If it breaks below $1.50 at this stage just watch all of the conditional stops get opened up IMO




Yes that's bound to happen.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (5 January 2012)

jancha said:


> Lack of demand for RED has to have a REASON as in the past it has had support and followed the pog so why not now?




Fundamental: Risk of further problems with mine
Technicals: Don't scream buy

1.50 could be the bottom or very close - but that in itself is speculation at this stage.

I can understand drops at least when gold or market is dropping, but drops when both of the former rise is not a bullish sign. You can see from the charts that volume usually comes from downward momentum not upward.

I just cannot buy this stock right now, there is no reason to. Yes it could turn around quickly - but once again that is pure speculation which is no way to make money short term.


Long term is another story, but alas I digress.




Chasero said:


> Quick question, if the battle between Iran and US heats up, what would happen to the price of gold?




Up is my guess, but who knows. If you think RED's sp is manipulated then you ain't seen nothing yet. Nothing is more manipulated in the world than gold.


Crap all volume today and no major activity.


----------



## mardo (6 January 2012)

During this down phase Red has attracted Franklyn Templeton  to its books with a 5% stake,looks to me like the smart money has been absorbing stock over this period.It will be very interesting to see where we head when steady state production is reached.


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## robz7777 (6 January 2012)

mardo said:


> During this down phase Red has attracted Franklyn Templeton  to its books with a 5% stake,looks to me like the smart money has been absorbing stock over this period.It will be very interesting to see where we head when steady state production is reached.




Franklin Templeton only buy things that go up?


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## fastbuck1 (6 January 2012)

robz7777 said:


> Franklin Templeton only buy things that go up?




and they won't be the ones selling when the sp hits$4.50


----------



## Chasero (6 January 2012)

lol @ jump today.

Price manipulated down 2 days in a row anyone?


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## tech/a (6 January 2012)

Your kidding me!!

*Just point out the impressive bit about these guys performance?*

https://www.franklintempleton.com/retail/app/product/views/price_performance.jsf?menu=true


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## jancha (6 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Your kidding me!!
> 
> *Just point out the impressive bit about these guys performance?*
> 
> ...




I wonder if they look to the charts in order to buy a 5% stake in RED.
Tech does that mean Franklin only buys stocks that go down? lol


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## Gold Munster (6 January 2012)

G'Day All,
filter the funds by gold, and you find the gold fund has got a 20% return for the last 10 years & 7% return since 1969.

As for me , i sold half my red @ 1.90 bt some again at $1.50, will wait out.
Note another miner in similar circumstances is NMG (meant to pour in Sep 11) & still waiting. I have bt @ average of .50 and waiting, similar again is MCO, troubles in March 11 and still have not recovered 9 months on. Another stock to start up soon? is BDR in June. RED has made me cautious on this one too. So I guess getting a mine start is harder than us lay-people think... 
Cheers


----------



## fwpike (6 January 2012)

Some of you folks are a bit hard on Beatle methinks. He is putting his money where his mouth is it seems. His posts are matter of fact to my reading. Risk/reward ratios are a personal choice. No guts no glory.
IMHO RED has very great "sovereign risk" (does that that term includes Muslim terrorists? I will assume so) as well as physical isolation and extreme weather. So its risky.  Risk deters people.
No extra gold is mined by management making "announcements". You guys just want to be entertained. 
Once again IMHO once RED is banking money, then "charting" ,(and personal hopes and aspirations), will be overwhelmed by P/E.  If the figures provided are correct then those earnings should be quite strong quite soon. My "back of an envelope" calculations on the known figures have the sp at $5 or at least a big dividend


----------



## tech/a (6 January 2012)

> filter the funds by gold, and you find the gold fund has got a 20% return for the last 10 years & 7% return since 1969.




Granted but a 16% loss in the past year!


----------



## LostMyShirt (6 January 2012)

fwpike said:


> Some of you folks are a bit hard on Beatle methinks. He is putting his money where his mouth is it seems. His posts are matter of fact to my reading. Risk/reward ratios are a personal choice. No guts no glory.
> IMHO RED has very great "sovereign risk" (does that that term includes Muslim terrorists? I will assume so) as well as physical isolation and extreme weather. So its risky.  Risk deters people.
> No extra gold is mined by management making "announcements". You guys just want to be entertained.
> Once again IMHO once RED is banking money, then "charting" ,(and personal hopes and aspirations), will be overwhelmed by P/E.  If the figures provided are correct then those earnings should be quite strong quite soon.




All minor risks in my opinion.

Weather and rain now have contingency in place to make sure the pit does not flood - then again Maybe is a TSUNAMI HIT?!

Muslim Terrorists? No - NPA = Communist militants.

"isolation"? It is quite nice that they are over there. Bringing the product over here is no big deal, but considering the 5 year tax free break they have, as well as being IMMUNE to carbon tax and the like - I think their location is A1.

Their community is quite happy with there presence, and there does not seem to be any retaliation or notice taken by the NPA militants. Weather is not a big issue unless there is a freak storm, in which case contingencies put in place for the pit will serve their purpose.


----------



## Boggo (6 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Your kidding me!!
> 
> *Just point out the impressive bit about these guys performance?*




Yes, more of the same problem, the 'investors' who believe in Gus etc also believe that because an organisation is big then they must be good. I bet that none of the management salaries are in negative figures and their commissions etc would definitely be in the green.



Gold Munster said:


> So I guess getting a mine start is harder than us lay-people think...




That may be an issue GM but the same obviously applies to all startups.
The problem I have with all of these is that the management seem to get their hopes about a year ahead of reality and then the sheep all follow blindly along with their handfull of dollars.

If these ventures are going to be as good as everyone says they are then just be patient and wait, there will be room for everyone. You may not get in at the bottom but you eliminate or at least significantly reduce the RISK.

Why put yourself in a situation where you are sharing the weight of every problem that is encountered, and for what, just so you can say I told you so or so you can bombard a stock thread with the discussions on the density of poggy and then hope that you will be seen as a hero if it comes off !


----------



## jancha (6 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Ill bet there are clear technical buy signals.
> 
> As For RED.
> I'm opting for the Blue option.
> ...




Back to the drawing board or more specifically charts.
Not having a go at you Tech but whats the market telling you now with RED. Has your charting methods changed view on your previous sp of REDs $1.20c from yesterday?


----------



## Boggo (6 January 2012)

jancha said:


> Not having a go at you Tech but whats the market telling you now with RED. Has your charting methods changed view on your previous sp of REDs $1.20c from yesterday?




At a guess I would doubt it, its still in negative territory below 19.5 cents ($1.95).
This speccy has three hurdles to overcome before it even gets out of mug punter territory and resumes an uptrend.
It can't even make past the first one of those hurdles with today's news so I reckon that management may have to do a better job of inspiring their religious like followers.

(click to expand)


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## tech/a (6 January 2012)

The analysis alters if $1.85 is breached and holds.
Other than that.
A trade taken on the spike low is valid with a stop at the low of that bar.
If the low is taken out then the $ 1.20 level is likely.

If your long from the spike bar-- no panic
If you don't have a position I'd be waiting to either see the spike low tested
Or $1.85 hold
If your a buy and hold investor and currently hold at a buy price lower than $ 1.44
Then your not concerned.
If not you should be protecting loss and minimizing any future loss.


----------



## fastbuck1 (9 January 2012)

i see mathews is recent sub holder of moy, maybe they sold red to fund its position, a breif look at moy, red still would be the better of the 2 by along shot, moy is also about to become a producer, production costs are alot higher than red...


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## beatle (11 January 2012)

Hi Fastbuck, yeah I hadn't noticed Matthews moving into MOY, maybe it demonstrates that they want to take positions in much earlier stage gold projects and derive gains from the transition close to production. Good luck to them!

RED continues to hang around $1.61-$1.65, and seems that must be a good sign for the TA, but that's not my bag! Lol.

I have spoken to both GE and CJ in recent times and seems both are reasonably relaxed as to how things might develop, certainly haven't indicated any concerns that things won't get sorted out (of course they wouldn't be indicating that to anyone though!). Patience is a virtue, but I admit that I'm not so patient, although I did get a few more to keep things going (also thanks to Tech/a and Boggo for helping me get them at a reasonably good cheap - in my view of course - price, lol!).

I'm waiting RED....


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## fastbuck1 (16 January 2012)

beatle said:


> Hi Fastbuck, yeah I hadn't noticed Matthews moving into MOY, maybe it demonstrates that they want to take positions in much earlier stage gold projects and derive gains from the transition close to production. Good luck to them!
> 
> RED continues to hang around $1.61-$1.65, and seems that must be a good sign for the TA, but that's not my bag! Lol.
> 
> ...



talk about boring, how long is it going to take to get this thing on the road, i want to get out of this thing asap to many other stock with more upside and a constant stream of ann......


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## mr. jeff (16 January 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> talk about boring, how long is it going to take to get this thing on the road, i want to get out of this thing asap to many other stock with more upside and a constant stream of ann......




Another disappointing announcement could really sting a lot of holders, that is most likely why they are not saying anything, as they have nothing good to add at this stage. 
Well, in 2028 when they produce gold reliably and terminators take it all off us, we can all look back and curse management like holders are now. The only redeeming thing is knowing what an awful, stressful and difficult situation the team are in now....hopefully their strengths come to the fore and they can resolve everything without any more issues. (Although almost certainly we know now that there are more issues, implied by no news being released and a non-existent time-frame). 
I was not in this stock during the early years, but it seems that this is not altogether unusual. I may be overly harsh, but I like commitments kept.

Good luck holders. Keep remembering that once in production, the stock represents a great price at this level and it is reasonably close to being at that stage, realistically it should not be more than end of Feb before some bars pop out.

(whether they are clay and gold or not remains to be seen!)


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## beatle (17 January 2012)

Yes I agree that its painful at the moment, but for sure management have to put out an announcement in the next 2 weeks related to the quarterly so we should find out more at that stage. I remain confident, but bloody frustrated, with the delay and lack of news!


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## Chasero (17 January 2012)

Wow, gold up 2.3% today and silver up 3%

Wednesday should see gold shares rally HARD. 

Traders are looking for a top in the USD to be in this week or next.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/24006/gold-comes-alive

http://www.safehaven.com/article/24012/gold-market-update

http://www.safehaven.com/article/24014/gold-trend-forecast-for-1st-quarter-of-2012

Some interesting reads.

I am long RED today and MML.


----------



## Chasero (18 January 2012)

Chasero said:


> Wow, gold up 2.3% today and silver up 3%
> 
> Wednesday should see gold shares rally HARD.
> 
> ...




Bearish gold analysis:

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/canada/2012/01/gold-lets-dig-a-little-deeper.html

Stopped out with losses today 

USD looks too strong, might keep rallying this week onto the next.


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## beatle (18 January 2012)

Sorry to hear that Chasero, but OMG, I am so confused with your attached gold commentaries. It really proves to me that you can twist TA whichever you want it to go and honestly I can't see a point to getting worked up on argument, either up or down for gold, based on that sort of TA gibberish! 

I feel reasonably confident for the longer term that the US will introduce another round of QE, thus dropping the US$ value and assisting gold to at least keep within cooee of the current price. Such a price is great for RED, WHEN it finally actually pours gold!


----------



## tech/a (18 January 2012)

beatle said:


> Sorry to hear that Chasero, but OMG, I am so confused with your attached gold commentaries. It really proves to me that you can twist TA whichever you want it to go and honestly I can't see a point to getting worked up on argument, either up or down for gold, based on that sort of TA gibberish!
> 
> I feel reasonably confident for the longer term that the US will introduce another round of QE, thus dropping the US$ value and assisting gold to at least keep within cooee of the current price. Such a price is great for RED, WHEN it finally actually pours gold!




Perhaps I can help.

Often traders who have a view not supported by evidence in the instrument they are trading---look for correlated instruments to draw conclusions that "could" support their view.
Hence we see the GOLD chart being discussed infinitum as RED does Bugger all.

Simple really.


----------



## fastbuck1 (18 January 2012)

one would think that red would have looked at the blue prints of the previouse mine to see how the plant was set up to deal with sticky ore, funny how something so small can throw a very big spanner in the works.


----------



## fwpike (19 January 2012)

I know little about techncal analysis. I do know that gold mines sell gold. I tried unsuccessfully to encourage shareholders to stop the second tranche of share issues at 17c. Now we have a great swag of shareholders who will sell into any price above that mark, and diluting my share of the profits. The money is sitting there being gulped down by management who were giving pay rises, not out of cashflow, as i tried to persuade you guys, but out of capital. Now that's crazy in my book, (finobucci numbers notwithstanding). I also tried to persuade you guys to vote against the share consolidation on the basis that it was smoke and mirrors and did not produce gold. I was and am of the opinion that management's focus should have been 110% on the mine, not head office "make work" games. 
How am I going so far?


----------



## tech/a (19 January 2012)

If you were going out long enough with a red hot prospect that didnt put out you'd dump it!!
Yop wouldnt keep postulating on what it was thinking of doing.
How its parents were influencing it.
What everyone else thought!

Would you??


----------



## Chasero (19 January 2012)

fwpike said:


> The money is sitting there being gulped down by management who were giving pay rises, not out of cashflow, as i tried to persuade you guys, but out of capital.
> How am I going so far?




I wonder how long management has had to bring this mine to get it's first gold pour going...

Because it's just going to keep coming out of capital otherwise

Only positive thing out of this is RED has no debt, has already had a capital raising. Now it's just up to management to sort out teething issues.

And judging by managements history, thats anyones guess as to first gold pour date.


----------



## Boggo (19 January 2012)

fwpike said:


> I know little about techncal analysis. I do know that gold mines sell gold. I tried unsuccessfully to encourage shareholders to stop the second tranche of share issues at 17c. Now we have a great swag of shareholders who will sell into any price above that mark, and diluting my share of the profits. The money is sitting there being gulped down by management who were giving pay rises, not out of cashflow, as i tried to persuade you guys, but out of capital. Now that's crazy in my book, (finobucci numbers notwithstanding). I also tried to persuade you guys to vote against the share consolidation on the basis that it was smoke and mirrors and did not produce gold. I was and am of the opinion that management's focus should have been 110% on the mine, not head office "make work" games.
> 
> *How am I going so far?*




Not very good actually imo.
Why, because you are getting caught up in the internal workings/malfunctions of a company where you may be out of your depth and you have no real influence even if you do understand what should happen.

You will never make a squid if you spend all your time getting involved in their problems and BS, buy in when it is going up and run for the hills when it turns down otherwise you would be better off just handing your hard earned over to Gus or whoever and asking them to not lose it.

Don't get emotionally attached to any company, buy their shares when they look like making you money and sell them when they are no longer doing so.

Chart of reality below...


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## snsdmonkey (19 January 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> talk about boring, how long is it going to take to get this thing on the road, i want to get out of this thing asap to many other stock with more upside and a constant stream of ann......




Thoughtless comment really. Why would you continue to hold RED then if you see other opportunities? Wouldn't it be better to just cut your losses on RED/sell out for brokerage, rather than wait for it to magically deliver?


----------



## Boggo (19 January 2012)

snsdmonkey said:


> Thoughtless comment really. Why would you continue to hold RED then if you see other opportunities?




It's the usual 90% of 'traders/investors' problem, ie. I have bought it and I hate being wrong, also I didn't plan for the fact that it may go down and what if I sell it and it goes up tomorrow mentality.


----------



## fwpike (19 January 2012)

As I said I'm not a technical trader though I have made a few bob here and there Boggo. I see a gold mine with no debt about to pour gold and a lot of  fed up would be over night millionaires selling out of frustration. Not a good time to sell IMHO.


----------



## beatle (19 January 2012)

fwpike said:


> I know little about techncal analysis. I do know that gold mines sell gold. I tried unsuccessfully to encourage shareholders to stop the second tranche of share issues at 17c. Now we have a great swag of shareholders who will sell into any price above that mark, and diluting my share of the profits. The money is sitting there being gulped down by management who were giving pay rises, not out of cashflow, as i tried to persuade you guys, but out of capital. Now that's crazy in my book, (finobucci numbers notwithstanding). I also tried to persuade you guys to vote against the share consolidation on the basis that it was smoke and mirrors and did not produce gold. I was and am of the opinion that management's focus should have been 110% on the mine, not head office "make work" games.
> How am I going so far?




FWPike, I read this post with some amusement to be honest, as whilst I don't necessarily agree with your point of view, RED management don't seem to have got things right at the moment too! And of course its easy for us to judge with hindsight. But both you and I are wrong about 1 thing for sure - both you and I agree that they shouldn't have raised so much in that earlier placement that ended up diluting the share capital considerably. But now, with the way this commissioning has gone so slowly, its just as well they did raise every bit of cash at that time, otherwise we wouldn't be still reasonably comfortable (yet of course still very frustrated!) that RED has plenty of cash to keep the wolves at bay whilst they make front end mods to the plant.
I believe that the consolidation of share capital hasn't really had any effect on the share price other than to remove the smaller traders from the scene and since that time we have another substantial shareholder join the ranks. Thus I would judge the consolidation as being relatively benign with respect to share price.
The main game remains getting the darn plant sorted out as soon as possible, and I am wondering if the onset of the wet season has hampered the modifications being enacted and if the wet clays might remain an issue for them regardless.
As I mention I take a lot of comfort knowing that they have a lot of cash in the can to keep things moving, if ever so slowly as it seems.
And whilst Tech/a and Boggo might know a lot about TA and their inputs are obviously welcome to many who follow that course of trading, that is their strength but I suggest anyone relying on that advice to make judgements about the state of play with the project solely on charting are probably going to regret any decisions they make based on such comments/observations! I make my decisions based on broader information than what the tea leaves might be saying about the next movements! And I don't regret my successes to date! 
Can I ask a question of you 2 - since both of you are based in Adelaide and you both seem to follow each others commentaries fairly closely, even answer on behalf of each other from time to time, are you related (or schizophrenic?), lol!


----------



## Boggo (20 January 2012)

beatle said:


> And whilst Tech/a and Boggo might know a lot about TA and their inputs are obviously welcome to many who follow that course of trading, that is their strength but I suggest *anyone relying on that advice to make judgements about the state of play with the project solely on charting are probably going to regret any decisions they make* based on such comments/observations! I make my decisions based on broader information than what the tea leaves might be saying about the next movements! And I don't regret my successes to date!




I don't regret getting out as it dropped through $2.10, obviously I was not alone LOL.

As for tech/a and I, like we did with RED, we are working on a little deal to get the price of the Sydney Harbour bridge down using technical analysis to create negative sentiment.
We reckon that a few more weeks of stating the obvious should do it, will give you a bell when we get it down to a fundamental "a bargain at this price" area, trust me, and there is no poggy to worry about.


----------



## tech/a (23 January 2012)

*Oh My!!*

This is not augering well for RED.
Falling with very little volume to its recient low.

Below $1.42 and its a night at the opera
featuring the FAT LADY!

But Im sure it will be seen as a rare opportunity by some!
Not me!


----------



## fastbuck1 (23 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> *Oh My!!*
> 
> This is not augering well for RED.
> Falling with very little volume to its recient low.
> ...




so what price is a buy tech ??? or do i put on a silk glove and try to catch a falling knife??


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## tech/a (23 January 2012)

I'll let you know if anything obvious shows up


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## fwpike (24 January 2012)

Hey Beetle,
It is almost a month since it was discovered that the ore at the bottom of the pit was gluggy (poggy, puggy). (Hardly amazing since the last twelve months were spent pumping it out). You appear to be "connected". Do these guys have a plan and a timetable?


----------



## Boggo (24 January 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> so what price is a buy tech ??? or do i put on a silk glove and try to catch a falling knife??




It's at a critical level now at 1.50. Until it gets above at least 1.80 I would be concentrating on one or more of the other 1900+ stocks that exist on the ASX.

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a (24 January 2012)

Boggo said:


> It's at a critical level now at 1.50. Until it gets above at least 1.80 I would be concentrating on one or more of the other 1900+ stocks that exist on the ASX.
> 
> (click to expand)




Volumes going into the Support zone are important.

High volumes indicate Supply and Buyers absorbing supply.
Who will win if that is the case wont be known until one otr the other withdraws.
Supply withdrawl will see support.
Demand withdrawl will see failure and lower prices.

BUT
If there is less than impressive volume that means there is NO DEMAND.
Price is heading to a known support area without any interest from buyers.
Technically this is not good.!!
If support is breached on LOWish volume then RED will be sick for quite a while.  

$1.10 ish!!

But all eyes on *this current zone*.


----------



## mrlister (24 January 2012)

explain what you mean by critical? what is the worst case scenario here?


----------



## silence (25 January 2012)

I'm guessing the next support level, i.e. $1.10 going by that chart


----------



## tech/a (25 January 2012)

Low volume up day.
Not positive.


----------



## mrlister (25 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Low volume up day.
> Not positive.





can you please explain this to me?


----------



## Dougs Antiques (25 January 2012)

mrlister said:


> can you please explain this to me?




low volume up day is more than likely retail traders only buying smallish parcels (weak sentiment).
high volume up day shows strong buying demand (strong sentiment)


----------



## tech/a (25 January 2012)

mrlister said:


> can you please explain this to me?




Doug has the basics.

It takes more than 1 line.
Here is a chart of PEN I did back a while ago.
you can study the notations and look at the chart to see what happened.

I can mark up a RED chart if your still not clear.

*Click to expand*




As it has turned out RED had an average volume day.
So not a bad thing and not a good thing.
A wait and see thing.
The analysis is a little ho hum as the volume testing $1.45 at $1.50 (I dont see this as a test---not low enough!) is half the volume generated on the $1.46 low.

Not significant enough to consider sentiment as being controlling.
My view is lacking direction at the moment.Heavy consolidation at $1.70-1.60 Zone and I still expect the low to be tested at $1.45---sooner than later.


----------



## mrlister (25 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Doug has the basics.
> 
> It takes more than 1 line.
> Here is a chart of PEN I did back a while ago.
> ...





What if they were to finally announce that the modifications they needed to make we're pretty much complete and will be proceeding soon? How would this effect them. I know it's all been said before, and I know nothing, I'm just speaking hypothetically?


----------



## tech/a (25 January 2012)

mrlister said:


> What if they were to finally announce that the modifications they needed to make we're pretty much complete and will be proceeding soon? How would this effect them. I know it's all been said before, and I know nothing, I'm just speaking hypothetically?




Have no idea.
I trade technically
I don't need to consider--- what ifs.
Only ---what are's and they are on the chat in my world.


----------



## mrlister (26 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Have no idea.
> I trade technically
> I don't need to consider--- what ifs.
> Only ---what are's and they are on the chat in my world.





So what your saying is that you know very little of the company and what it's position is, your analysis is based purely on the technical analysis of the shares. 

If this is true, I'd suggest there is a lot more than meets the eye with this one


----------



## tech/a (26 January 2012)

mrlister said:


> So what your saying is that you know very little of the company and what it's position is, your analysis is based purely on the technical analysis of the shares.
> 
> If this is true, I'd suggest there is a lot more than meets the eye with this one




Very little-- actually nothing,
I don't have to.
Same with very trade I take.
Been the same for 18 yrs.

My only opinion based on the technical analysis at that point in time.
You may be right
You maybe wrong.
Either way I'll see it


----------



## Boggo (26 January 2012)

mrlister said:


> So what your saying is that you know very little of the company and what it's position is, your analysis is based purely on the technical analysis of the shares.
> 
> If this is true, I'd suggest there is a lot more than meets the eye with this one




There is nothing wrong with what you are implying mrlister, and yes, there may be a lot more than meets the eye with this one.

The reality though is are you here to make money or are you just into the nice warm feeling that you may be right.
If it is the latter and you are prepared to gamble over the long term then good on you, if however you adopt a _take no nonsense I am here to make a profit_ approach then technical analysis is the only thing that is a dynamic barometer of reality.
Having both the technical analysis and the fundamental working together is ideal but when you start handing back any profits you may have because "there is a lot more than meets the eye" while the stock is in freefall will guarantee you a place in the 90% of investors who never make a profit..

Below is a post from 6th December and below that is the chart of RED showing where the price was when that post was made, the point is obvious.



beatle said:


> I remain confident because of my own fundamental knowledge and valuation of RED, plus other facts that support my view:
> 
> 1. Its got a stock standard gold plant, costing $85 million (plus or minus);
> 2. Siana has got around 850,000 ozs gold in reserves - for those who don't understand what a reserve implies, it means its economic and been modeled to accomodate all technical and financial factors;
> ...


----------



## tech/a (26 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Very little-- actually nothing,
> I don't have to.
> Same with very trade I take.
> Been the same for 18 yrs.
> ...




Infact long on Monday's open with a stop on yesterday's low is a low risk short term trade.


----------



## mrlister (26 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Very little-- actually nothing,
> I don't have to.
> Same with very trade I take.
> Been the same for 18 yrs.
> ...




That's fair enough, and I'm sure you've been very successful. With so many opinions, it's good to knOw what angle their perspective is coming from.


----------



## mrlister (26 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Infact long on Monday's open with a stop on yesterday's low is a low risk short term trade.




Sorry I don't understand what you mean.


----------



## snsdmonkey (26 January 2012)

Mathews still a headless, senseless nong for getting out?


----------



## tech/a (26 January 2012)

mrlister said:


> Sorry I don't understand what you mean.




Volume picked up through the day and price ended near it's high of the day.
As such there is the opportunity to take a low risk trade--- short term with a stop at the recient low.

So if the low is taken out a small loss.
If price reaches close resistance re evaluate as price reacts to it.

Can't make it any clearer.


----------



## tech/a (26 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Infact long on Monday's open with a stop on yesterday's low is a low risk short term trade.




Sorry it's Thursday!
Mean Friday


----------



## mrlister (26 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Sorry it's Thursday!
> Mean Friday




Cheers mate. I got most of what you meant, just the word 'long' and I couldn't figure out what the significance of Monday was.


----------



## silence (27 January 2012)

Decent spike upwards today! Maybe an announcement on the way?


----------



## Boggo (27 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Volume picked up through the day and price ended near it's high of the day.
> *As such there is the opportunity to take a low risk trade--- short term with a stop at the recient low.
> *
> So if the low is taken out a small loss.
> ...




Nice work tech/a, that's how to make money from stocks like these


----------



## jah008 (27 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Volume picked up through the day and price ended near it's high of the day.
> As such there is the opportunity to take a low risk trade--- short term with a stop at the recient low.
> 
> So if the low is taken out a small loss.
> ...




Spot on Tech/a! Been reading your tech analysis posts. Paid for my wedding invites today! Cheers


----------



## tech/a (27 January 2012)

jah008 said:


> Spot on Tech/a! Been reading your tech analysis posts. Paid for my wedding invites today! Cheers




And mine is in the mail??


----------



## jah008 (27 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> And mine is in the mail??




If the learnt knowledge ends up paying for the Honeymoon... then yes!


----------



## tech/a (27 January 2012)

jah008 said:


> If the learnt knowledge ends up paying for the Honeymoon... then yes!




Wedding will be fine I'll skip the Honeymoon!!

Sold at $1.70 I expect a consilidation here and at worse a pull back.
Will see how the analysis pans out tonight.
Only had 10000 of them!


----------



## mrlister (27 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Wedding will be fine I'll skip the Honeymoon!!
> 
> Sold at $1.70 I expect a consilidation here and at worse a pull back.
> Will see how the analysis pans out tonight.
> Only had 10000 of them!




apparently announcement expected monday


----------



## youngone (27 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Volume picked up through the day and price ended near it's high of the day.
> As such there is the opportunity to take a low risk trade--- short term with a stop at the recient low.
> 
> So if the low is taken out a small loss.
> ...




Tech/A Can you explain in simple term for the other half trying to pick up our pace.


----------



## tech/a (27 January 2012)

youngone said:


> Tech/A Can you explain in simple term for the other half trying to pick up our pace.




Will do.
But it really is an explaination in Volume spread analysis.
Plus after using it for 6 or so years it becomes like driving a car.
Try explaining car driving to someone who hasnt driven a car.

But ill give it a go and you and others can practice on observations made on other charts to see how good you get.

Cant do now but later.


----------



## ColB (27 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Wedding will be fine I'll skip the Honeymoon!!
> 
> *Sold at $1.70* I expect a consilidation here and at worse a pull back.
> Will see how the analysis pans out tonight.
> Only had 10000 of them!




Nice days work Tech!  In spite of what Hangseng thinks I reckon you're alright


----------



## tech/a (28 January 2012)

youngone said:


> Tech/A Can you explain in simple term for the other half trying to pick up our pace.




As its involved in the way I short term trade I thought Id post it up here.


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23721

Will answer your question and will show an insight to the way I read a chart. In particular this one and will keep following it for a while.

Right now I have a buy stop at $1.72 and if it drops Monday I will cancel that.


----------



## mrlister (30 January 2012)

Interesting day ahead for RED. Hopefully production report is all positive and we'll see a big jump in share price. The big question is, if not all is positive, and things no a bit backwards......what price do we jump off? Technical analysis?


----------



## dave1234 (30 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> As its involved in the way I short term trade I thought Id post it up here.
> 
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23721



That is an interesting thread tech, thanks for the link. One question, what software package do you use to analyse the data and generate graphs?


----------



## mrlister (30 January 2012)

RED has released ASX reports. Seems like good news........


----------



## tech/a (30 January 2012)

mrlister said:


> Interesting day ahead for RED. Hopefully production report is all positive and we'll see a big jump in share price. The big question is, if not all is positive, and things no a bit backwards......what price do we jump off? Technical analysis?




Different for different traders/investors.
depends on where you bought and what your intentions are--long term or shorter.



dave1234 said:


> That is an interesting thread tech, thanks for the link. One question, what software package do you use to analyse the data and generate graphs?




Thats Metastock and I marked out with paint.



mrlister said:


> RED has released ASX reports. Seems like good news........




Quaterly reports--standard.


----------



## dave1234 (30 January 2012)

Thanks tech


----------



## tech/a (30 January 2012)

Nice move.
Bugga gapped over my buy at $1.72
So Im watching.
Just noticed so will wait wont chase.


----------



## jah008 (30 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Nice move.
> Bugga gapped over my buy at $1.72
> So Im watching.
> Just noticed so will wait wont chase.




I had a buy in a $1.69 but it skipped over as well. In my amateur trading knowledge I believe support is forming at $1.76 / $1.77. But I could be wrong... but I bought in at $1.77 with a stop sell at $1.72. I'll learn by making mistakes if I have too.


----------



## tminus (30 January 2012)

There is resistance @ $2.00


----------



## mrlister (30 January 2012)

been stuck at 1.78 for some time. a lot of big trades jammed behind it at 1.77 ish


----------



## tech/a (30 January 2012)

As pointed out there is close weak resistance.
The question is --- today's gap is it continuation of buying or temporary exhaustion.
If I was filled today I'd still hold.
But just as happy to stay out and evaluate as the days go by.


----------



## toocool (30 January 2012)

I exited today after the high volume around 3pm @1.79.  

In @1.55 yesterday so 14%ish in two days was a very satisfying trade, and easy to take a profit.

Still worth keeping an eye on.


----------



## mrlister (30 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Different for different traders/investors.
> depends on where you bought and what your intentions are--long term or shorter.
> 
> 
> ...





what do you think of the metastock software? is it worth the 1300 odd to purchase? is is easy to learn and customize?


----------



## tech/a (31 January 2012)

mrlister said:


> what do you think of the metastock software? is it worth the 1300 odd to purchase? is is easy to learn and customize?




I use Metastock and have for 18 yrs.
Wouldn't pay 1300
Amibroker wasn't around when I started.
I also have Amibroker but haven't learnt it as time is a premium.

If I started again it would be Amibroker
Best value and versatility.in my opinion


----------



## mr. jeff (31 January 2012)

I noted in the update that pour is imminent and commissioning reworks were either completed or effectively completed successfully, so that eliminates any downside surprises from here on in - if there was to be any further issues, they would have needed to be mentioned in the update you would assume. 
I still won't trust management to keep us updated though, they could tout it as acting in s/h interests by not announcing bad news and causing selling, but it is not their decision on how to disclose important information, right ? 

Aside from all this, well timed bottom picking recently and will be interesting to see where we are at the end of the week, the quick rally spurred by POG must have been a relief to many.

An imminent gold pour is coming - imminent means it is unavoidably going to occur, so with that language you could conclude that at some stage in the future RED will pour gold. (does carry a connotation of time, suggesting closeness, but very wishy washy) so from the word imminent and not 'close' or in the next fortnight, I would assume they still don't have certainty on site and no fixed date. 

Selling of my holding is imminent.


----------



## beatle (31 January 2012)

I understand that most posters on the RED thread nowadays are posting re short term trading positions, and thats fine to suit your own trading strategy.

I do suggest though that you do consider another longer term investment strategy for RED. The quarterly report was actually a very bullish commentary on status of the project, it seems they have got most things working in accordance with base case feasibility study forecasts in terms of throughputs, or possibly above those rates. That is likely to reflect in good long term prospects that operating costs will also be inline with expectations. We are yet to get a better indication of gold recovery at this stage though.

My reading therefore is that RED should now begin its re-rating as time goes by demonstrating that it is a long term, low cost gold miner. 

News on the street is that Matthews has not only stopped selling but might actually be buying some shares back! But probably unlikely to be a substantial shareholder again. I can't prove this, but if that rumour is true then its another positive for RED's share price in the coming months as the ramp up begins.


----------



## Boggo (31 January 2012)

beatle said:


> I understand that most posters on the RED thread nowadays are posting re short term trading positions, and thats fine to suit your own trading strategy.
> 
> I do suggest though that you do consider another longer term investment strategy for RED.




I understand what you are saying beatle, what you are missing though is that "short term" becomes 'long term' as long as the price keeps going in the right direction.

My current RRL position was a short term trade back in October and is still being treated as such but with a slightly wider stop that can now be afforded.

The price action/behaviour determines the duration of the 'investment'.

My


----------



## jancha (31 January 2012)

jancha said:


> Anythings possible but unless something is seriously wrong with RED i'd be fairly confident that at its $1.58sp it would hit $1.90 before ever dropping to $1.20.
> And if you had to stake your reputation on it which would you truely choose Tech?




Tech where is RED heading to now in your opinion? Seems to be holding around the $1.85.


----------



## tech/a (31 January 2012)

jancha said:


> Tech where is RED heading to now in your opinion? Seems to be holding around the $1.85.




Evidence is pointing to support at the current levels.
There is minor resistance close and has been taken out.
For this to be a sustained move I would like to see a higher low formed as
the lows are tested.(Why Im in no hurry to jump on board). If it doesnt pull back considerably---$1.70 ish then I think it will go back into its $2.20 range.

Decisions for me will be on the pullback, and supporting of a higher low.
Patience for me.

If $2.20 taken out then Id be watching how support is made of that resistance level and Id expect it to be strong.
If the lows get taken out then $1.20 comes into play.

So as I said if I was filled I wouldnt be getting out--but missed by ----that much---.

Other than that Im looking and waiting.


----------



## jancha (31 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Evidence is pointing to support at the current levels.
> There is minor resistance close and has been taken out.
> For this to be a sustained move I would like to see a higher low formed as
> the lows are tested.(Why Im in no hurry to jump on board). If it doesnt pull back considerably---$1.70 ish then I think it will go back into its $2.20 range.
> ...




Very interesting Tech. Not a bad way of trading. I personally prefer to look at both the volume & charts as well as fundamentals of a company but by doing so are limited to only trading with stocks that i'm familiar with. And as i'm not as confident as you with your methods of tech analyst i tend buy in and out of RED with half my holdings retaining the rest till it reaches my expectation.


----------



## tech/a (31 January 2012)

jancha said:


> Very interesting Tech. Not a bad way of trading. I personally prefer to look at both the volume & charts as well as fundamentals of a company but by doing so are limited to only trading with stocks that i'm familiar with. And as i'm not as confident as you with your methods of tech analyst i tend buy in and out of RED with half my holdings retaining the rest till it reaches my expectation.




Nothing wrong with that.
If it suits fine.
RED isnt a stock Id trade normally but as I like to put my mouth where my money is Im dabbling around in it.
Same with PEN. Which is the only stock position I have open.

Index Futs are still my prefered.
But some interesting things are happening overall---another topic.


----------



## mrlister (31 January 2012)

im relatively new to trading, so im not sure what is normal and what is not...but watching RED at the moment,....people are being scared into selling. A lot of very small trades are going through at always around a cent cheaper than previous trade...which drives the market value down by that much......it is slowly having an affect and some people that are not seeing why this is happening would be selling out of fear. 

this trading game is full of tricks!!!


----------



## stacks (31 January 2012)

tech/a said:


> Nothing wrong with that.
> If it suits fine.
> RED isnt a stock Id trade normally but as I like to put my mouth where my money is Im dabbling around in it.
> Same with PEN. Which is the only stock position I have open.
> ...



This has been educational, this thread. Really good to hear different opinions and peoples trading styles in real time.

Would be really interested to hear your thoughts on the other 'interesting things happening overall' Tech. A new thread perhaps?


----------



## tech/a (31 January 2012)

mrlister said:


> im relatively new to trading, so im not sure what is normal and what is not...but watching RED at the moment,....people are being scared into selling. A lot of very small trades are going through at always around a cent cheaper than previous trade...which drives the market value down by that much......it is slowly having an affect and some people that are not seeing why this is happening would be selling out of fear.
> 
> this trading game is full of tricks!!!




Quite common.
If a trade is partially completed the amount left to trade will generally be left in to trade at that price again.
You can come out from behind the fridge now!


----------



## mrlister (1 February 2012)

im getting a little nervous about RED 5......relatively low volume and not moving at all.


----------



## silence (1 February 2012)

It can't go up every single day indefinitely. Call it consolidation / pullback.


----------



## mrlister (1 February 2012)

yeah i know, but i thought it had a bit more in it than this, they really need to start pouring!!


----------



## Dougs Antiques (1 February 2012)

Dougs Antiques said:


> The problem with the plant is that the marerial is blocking up on the sharp bends (I assume) so some of the belt structure will need to be redisigned and moved to provide a suitable curve to create laminer flow of the product.
> In order to do this some of the structure will need to be removed altered (to make a larger curve) and then replaced.
> Now depending on the difficulty and weather conditions (now the wet season) will controll how long that this will take.
> If it can be done in short period of time I doubt if we will see sub $1.50 *but if it takes 8 weeks or more* because of the weather RED could possibly see $1.20 with a few ups and downs on the chart.






mrlister said:


> yeah i know, but i thought it had a bit more in it than this, they really need to start pouring!!



On the 5th of January I called it at possibly 8 weeks due to the wet season....see what happens we are now at 4 weeks.


----------



## anderbond (1 February 2012)

Hi Guys, Interesting that Sprott is now out as well as Matthews. Nature of the game perhaps but may indicate some loss of confidence/disappointment with management/progress. As I recall Sprott has supplied the standby facility of US$8M so it can't be all bad.  I am not unduly concerned as there could be a myriad reasons. Latest report seems confident and positive. Have enjoyed some of the T/A stuff but not my bag. Like Beatle I have been in for many years (not as long though) and am looking forward to seeing the operation hit or exceed its production targets. Gold still looks bullish for 2012 so should be a good year for all long term holders. AB


----------



## mrlister (1 February 2012)

When i first saw that sprott got out i was a little concerned, but reality is that the withdrawal started mid year last year when the setbacks first commenced, and this is the end of it. so im not too concerned. it seems that the confidence level is at about 1.8 until they start to pour. which is fair enough, seeing as it is still a relative unknown, and still plenty of great other places to make money such as maverick. 

im going to hang in there for the mid - long term on this one.


----------



## mr. jeff (2 February 2012)

anderbond said:


> Hi Guys, Interesting that Sprott is now out as well as Matthews. Nature of the game perhaps but may indicate some loss of confidence/disappointment with management/progress. As I recall Sprott has supplied the standby facility of US$8M so it can't be all bad.  I am not unduly concerned as there could be a myriad reasons. Latest report seems confident and positive. Have enjoyed some of the T/A stuff but not my bag. Like Beatle I have been in for many years (not as long though) and am looking forward to seeing the operation hit or exceed its production targets. Gold still looks bullish for 2012 so should be a good year for all long term holders. AB




I agree that this is not a major concern, seems they have been selling a few different large gold stock orientated holdings in the past few days, SAR, AMX  for example. Might be a good time to find out where that money is now headed ?


----------



## beatle (2 February 2012)

Hi AB, great to hear from you after quite a while. It seems RED is finally over the big hurdles and once we hear of a gold pour (just to prove that there is gold at Siana and that the plant works!) and then ramped up production in coming months RED should finally prove a winner for all us long termers!
And AB as you point out gold looks like it could be strong for 2012. What I like about gold's strength is that even in aussie dollar terms it continues to ride a long term uptrend:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=10Y

My valuation of RED remains based on the 2009 base case feasibility study model, which (and of course it depends upon gold price over successive years) is more than double current share price. I expect that valuation to change UPWARDS once the operation is bedden down and management finally puts out a revised reserve statement. That reserve revision obviously has been on hold the past few months as they struggled to resolve this sticky ore problem (ie to get a handle on ore throughputs).


----------



## anderbond (2 February 2012)

Hi Beatle, thanks, I have been reading the thread both from Japan and here and keeping abreast of the "sticky" issues. The new drilling program at Siana looks worthwhile and some holes have looked very interesting. Overall it should be a great year for RED with  production and likely resource extensions combining to provide a bit of "rocket" juice to the SP. Additionally, attention may return to Mapawa once they have worked out where they need to drill as management remains excited about the potential here. Still waiting to hear about "the party" lol. AB


----------



## tech/a (4 February 2012)

Nice inside day on very very low volume for RED.
This is good news.
If interested in INSIDE day and some commentary see the PEN thread where its also happened on that chart. Much of the comment is applicable to this stock.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&page=115


----------



## mrlister (4 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> Nice inside day on very very low volume for RED.
> This is good news.
> If interested in INSIDE day and some commentary see the PEN thread where its also happened on that chart. Much of the comment is applicable to this stock.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&page=115




Hey tech..,,I like the way you analyse things. What do you think of the day MAD had yesterday?


----------



## tech/a (4 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> Hey tech..,,I like the way you analyse things. What do you think of the day MAD had yesterday?




MAD
Weak could test the high but is likely to range and go lower initially.


----------



## tech/a (5 February 2012)

Thought it worth reviewing RED.
While it can be seen as an inside day it is very different to PEN
The chart characteristics are weaker than PENs currently and my very quick post may have been mis leading.

I have liked the way pen has traded thus far however while the party may not be over the likely hood of it continuing strongly has diminished. I missed the $1.73 gap entry but If I was still in it Id have a stop trailing for tomorrow.

I think RED will come off in the short term.

*This analysis* alters if the current high at $1.91 is taken out.

*Click to expand*


----------



## mrlister (5 February 2012)

Sorry, I'm still learning the lingo. When you say 'taken out', do you mean if the price rises beyond this? 

Your analysis is pure technical based on a company that is in full swing, but RED is still yet to produce a thing, of which must be a big factor when analysing this stock.


----------



## tech/a (5 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> Sorry, I'm still learning the lingo. When you say 'taken out', do you mean if the price rises beyond this?




Yes.



> Your analysis is pure technical based on a company that is in full swing, but RED is still yet to produce a thing, of which must be a big factor when analysing this stock.




To many.
Not to me
The chart will tell all.
To me 
But possibly not to others.

I don't have to be in every trade a chart indicates.
I don't have to remain in a stock waiting for " A big factor "
I can miss opportunities and I can find opportunity where others may miss.
I can get it wrong and have no opinion,nor confusion.
I can trade a stock and know nothing more than it's code!!!


----------



## mrlister (5 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> Yes.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




according to your analysis....what % below fridays close would you put a sell stop on?...and why?

i just re-looked at your chart and you answered this question there...saying you would put the stop fridays low. Fridays low was only 1c below current price? so your saying if it drops at all then sell?


----------



## Moit (5 February 2012)

Hi all. Tech, take this how you will, though i do apologize. I have been following your posts here and on other threads.

Yes you did come across as though you were rubbishing RED. (And i must admit i may have taken it to heart on occasions.) But i am starting to see your point now. 

What you are posting i do find extremely interesting. Your T/A analysis is pretty much second to none. Other than the buy that was jumped over the other day on open, you have been pretty much spot on. I look forward to your posts now, as we are obviously here for the same reasons. (To make money) !!!

I am in fact taking everything you write on board, and do appreciate it. Please keep it up..

Cheers Moit.


----------



## mrlister (5 February 2012)

agree with Moit. Im learning from tech/a also.....thus why im asking a godzillion questions.


----------



## tech/a (6 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> agree with Moit. Im learning from tech/a also.....thus why im asking a godzillion questions.




Aim has never been to rubbish any stock.

With such a small window in today's trade analysis it isn't possible to cover every scenario. If I was in the trade my main aim would be to secure profit.

It's very possible there could be a sharp reversal day today---- trading above $ 1.91-2  then reversing below the stop level.

My stops are always close when trading short term as small moves can deplete profit very quickly.Also why I won't chase a buy.


----------



## mrlister (6 February 2012)

ASX announcement.......first gold pour at Siana!!!

This game just got interesting!!


----------



## mr. jeff (6 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> ASX announcement.......first gold pour at Siana!!!
> 
> This game just got interesting!!




Congrats to RED management and staff for getting there. Must be a relief. And they have added that they are to review production rates in light of a mill capacity review. 
Perhaps not unexpected but still will increase the IRR ? 

Beatle this would have to be a great time for you, you must be the most faithful investor ever known. Hope RED send you a first gold medallion! Where to now ? 2.20 for a start ?


----------



## mrlister (6 February 2012)

there would have been some champagne consumed over the weekend...thats for sure!!


----------



## tech/a (6 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> Aim has never been to rubbish any stock.
> 
> With such a small window in today's trade analysis it isn't possible to cover every scenario. If I was in the trade my main aim would be to secure profit.
> 
> ...




Volume pretty average sellers have kept this down.
Id be out now with a buy if it re visits at $1.95 which Id re look at in a few days.
Pity I missed it would have been a nice trade!

Will watch.


----------



## jah008 (6 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> ASX announcement.......first gold pour at Siana!!!
> 
> This game just got interesting!!




Not that interesting. Looks like the announcement was already built into the price. Lots of resistance from buyers to pay over $1.91. Actually compared to the rest of the market RED hasn't really done much today.


----------



## mrlister (6 February 2012)

agree. very disappointed with the response....to the point where im considering an exit next time it rises to the 1.94 mark.


----------



## beatle (6 February 2012)

Hi All RED followers, yes today is the best news that RED could possibly put out for us faithful Mr Jeff, and regardless of those seeking to make a fortune over the following 5 minutes of trading I'm of the view that RED will become more relevant to the institutional community that are yet to get invested, for a few reasons:
1. RED is now a gold producer with a likely long life, low cost gold production future ahead of it!
2. NPV valuation of RED at current gold price and based on the base case model are more than DOUBLE its current price. Its current market cap is a huge discount to its gold producing peers and just needs time to prove its gold production ramp up to get confidence going.
3. It has been prepared for the North Americn market with the share consolidation, so it won't be seen as  penny dreadful in the eyes of North American larger investors.

IMO RED is now a stock for those that want to invest in for the longer term - it has indicated its willingness to pay dividends as soon as it starts making good profits and that is what the institutional community seek. At anything like its current expected production rate and operating costs RED will be trading at PE's around 3 until it re-rates dramatically!

Yes AB, the party has been deferred, but I'm sure its going to be a great party, I look forward to catching up at that time with you.

Ok RED, time to move on and UPPPP


----------



## beatle (6 February 2012)

A further cautionary note to those religiously following Tech/a's posts on RED:

I don't aim to rubbish his TA, after all I don't follow it. BUT I have read most of his posts and you must realise that with regards to RED, he has at various times:

1. Suggested that RED may go down to $1.20 or it may move upwards, depending upon the following few days trading (at the time of his prediction!);
2. Tech/a has never held 1 share in RED, but for some strange reason consistently posts on RED, mostly as a negative poster. Even earlier today he has suggested RED is about to blow up.
3. When RED was going along very nicely on an uptrend he dared compared RED to PEN which he suggested had made many rich investors very poor. So therefore beware because RED was likely to do the same!

I suggest that its wise to read his TA comments knowing that he doesn't hold a single share. And if he was invested would he be telling you that you should sell at that time? Tech/a is like all share traders - out to make a buck, at whose expense is not his interest. We are all out there to make  buck in share investments/trading of course, but keep his self-interest in your perspective if you mechanically follow his instructions/guidance. 

I suggest that you also take note that his "twin" Boggo is similarly disposed to comments supporting Tech/a, especially related to RED.

My view on RED is not based on TA but purely on fundamental analysis, and I have followed the ups and downs of RED with Siana for a long time. Siana will produce a lot of gold for RED, and will become its strength as RED moves to other ventures once Siana production is fully bedded down. The institutional group now following RED will support it in those future ventures I believe. 

(I suggest you take look at the Kingsgate story as a comparative model to RED).


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## Chasero (6 February 2012)

beatle said:


> I don't aim to rubbish his TA, after all I don't follow it. BUT I have read most of his posts and you must realise that with regards to RED, he has at various times:
> 
> 1. Suggested that RED may go down to $1.20 or it may move upwards, depending upon the following few days trading (at the time of his prediction!);




The negative bias was obvious when he stated RED was "going nowhere" even due to "positive announcements" (when all annoucements during 2011 were NEGATIVE). Price then was $1.90. Few weeks later share price rose to $2.30 at end of November. That's a pretty big % gain for a share going nowhere.

Posters will always have bias when posting on shares. Just flick back to early november. Interesting T/A nonetheless, and interesting to see it from all sides.


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## Moit (6 February 2012)

Hi all RED members. 

And hi to you Beatle, my loyal ol mate. Apologies to you also. It wasn't my aim to stir up the hornets nest.  

You make some valid comments and i do agree with you. But for me personally, Tech/a's trading strategy is interesting and it is something i would like to do in the near future. I have held RED for over 2 years. In that time i have held and held and bought more in the lows and held some more. In hind sight i could have bought in the lows and sold at the highs, 5 or 6 times at least, ( and made a bucket load of cash ). I made a HUGE mistake a couple of weeks ago, which i will not elaborate on. I will not make the same mistake twice. My aim is to get a smarter and to start taking profits. There are certainly more ways to make money, than working for it. 

I must say though mate, congratulations today. I know you have been waiting patiently for over a decade for this day to come. It would have been a lot nicer if the market reacted a bit more positive to ward it. By the looks of things the gold pour may have been factored in already. Though RED is on a nice steady rise at the moment, i hope it continues.

And lets hope RED can continue to produce daily.

Cheers and good luck to all holders. Moit.


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## beatle (6 February 2012)

Hi Moit, great to see you following the story still despite the setbacks with the slow commissioning process. And no you didn't stir up a hornets nest with me re TA and Tech/a's analysis. As I say I don't form a view of a stock based on TA at all, other than to say I am guarded when a stock has been trending down for a long period of time and want to know more about why its been doing that.

I can understand your reasoning to increase your profits by buying low and buying high and for sure IF I had been trading in and out of RED over the recent years I'm sure I would have no better chance of success due to luck of investing. Remember, even Tech/a has no better luck with RED, he didn't pick the recent bottoms around $1.40 and never ended up buying a share in it. And yes he says he's got 1,900 shares to pick from, I just can't understand why he would bother wasting all his time posting on RED if he didn't think it was a good trade/investment. Even earlier today he suggested it might hit 1.91 then drop! So he didn't pick it that time either. (I am happy about his comments as when he, amongst others including Boggo, were so negative and said that RED was due to dive to $1.20 I bought at $1.45, so I thank the downramping, lol!).

But remember Moit, you have been in RED for a long time, don't disembark before the real move upwards IMO yet to come as the ramp-up of gold production develops. 

Just consider that the target market for RED now is more institutions, NONE of which that I am aware of use TA for stock-picking, they use valuations for their investments, and they tend to lock up a lot of stock when they want in!


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## tech/a (6 February 2012)

When I first posted on this thread RED was around $0.18c the equivilant of $1.80 now.
Currently $1.95 ish. So all this hoo ha for 8%.so far.

There are other ways to make a buck than buy and hold.
Dont worry Boggo and I wont be taking over the world soon---nor will you.



> I look forward to your posts now, as we are obviously here for the same reasons. (To make money) !!!




Id really not recommend posts like this. It upsets the Chief.
You know---false idols and the like---

Oh in at $1.95. Small parcel.


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## beatle (6 February 2012)

beatle said:


> ..........
> 
> I can understand your reasoning to increase your profits by buying low and buying high..........!




And of course I meant buying low and selling high!

By the way Tech/a (good to see you can speak for Boggo as well, is he the junior partner? lol), does it mean you will now abandon your reviewing TA of RED as its got beyond your limit, or does it increase your interest because its now trending up?


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## tech/a (6 February 2012)

beatle said:


> And of course I meant buying low and selling high!
> 
> By the way Tech/a (good to see you can speak for Boggo as well, is he the junior partner? lol), does it mean you will now abandon your reviewing TA of RED as its got beyond your limit, or does it increase your interest because its now trending up?




My stop is $1.93.

Ill be following RED as an exercise technically.
So Youll get the Good Bad and the Ugly.

Ill make sure you dont miss out.



> And of course I meant buying low and selling high!




Oh I buy high as well and sell higher.


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## mrlister (6 February 2012)

i know next to nothing of pouring gold......but those furnaces they use to melt down the gold, surely they must take a while to fire up. would they do that just for a little pour like this one.....or would you think they are expecting to be putting more through it?


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## reeftip (6 February 2012)

Congrats to all RED holders.
Now we just need a couple of quarters of production figures to really kick things along


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## Boggo (6 February 2012)

beatle said:


> ...others including Boggo, were so negative and said that RED was due to dive to $1.20 I bought at $1.45, so I thank the downramping, lol!).




I hope your accounting is more accurate than your quoting beatle, this was what I said on Jan 24th and on the 25th it bottomed at 1.48.
Sorry if 2 cents was too far out for you 



Boggo said:


> It's at a critical level now at 1.50. Until it gets above at least 1.80 I would be concentrating on one or more of the other 1900+ stocks that exist on the ASX.



https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8971&p=681662&viewfull=1#post681662


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## tech/a (6 February 2012)

> I know you have been waiting patiently for over a decade for this day to come.




Is that RIGHT????
Held this stock for 10 yrs!!


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## jancha (6 February 2012)

With all due respect to both Beatle and Tech/Boggo i think you all have valid points in the way you trade. Stick to the fundamentals or charting of RED the way you see it but as for this bantering going back and forth seems to be a waste of your energy.
If everyone traded the same there wouldn't be a market of interest.
I'm in this stock for fundamental reasons but by trading that way you can be holding that stock for some time before profiting. Many times i have bought & sold a stock for fundamental reasons but sold too early. Thats why i day trade with a portion of the shares so i am still making money whilst holding. If that particular share goes further i dont chase but wait till it drops again and if it does'nt all well and good as i still hold a portion of them. However if i were more confident in trading as Tech does i would daytrade a larger portion of the share.


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## tech/a (7 February 2012)

Rising nicely on low volume.
CURRENTLY sellers have withdrawn.


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## Moit (7 February 2012)

Hi all RED members. Tech i appreciate the warning. Ill try not to upset the chief, lol.

Not a bad day for RED thus far. Nice 8 %. Great to see a continuing flow on from yesterdays 4.8% rise. Where to from here. $2.40 you think ??

Cheers Moit.


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## mr. jeff (7 February 2012)

Would say these are the levels to broken.
Then we have valuations coming in to play. Thats where all the opinions are. 

I will sell when I see a strong up day on high volume. Good luck all.


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## mrlister (7 February 2012)

today's volume as at about double the average. is that not considered a high volume day?


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## tech/a (7 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> today's volume as at about double the average. is that not considered a high volume day?




It is high but not extreme.
5 x 10 day average is extreme.
It is very common for a pause in a climb after a high volume day.
Infact as I pointed out an inside day is common.
I concur with Jeff on the next line of Resistance.
Often volume and price ranges after high volume wide range days tell more about
the immediate likely actin than the high volume day itself.
Im not selling on this bar.---personally.---good day though.


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## beatle (7 February 2012)

Another good day for RED, after such a long time waiting with the teething problems during commissioning. 

My view is that RED will require another good report confirming the ramp up of gold production is continuing for it to be pushed substantially higher, and maybe that will be as long as end of Feb as advised by RED in the gold pour announcement. IF that ramp up continues as we would expect and hope, then RED should be testing $2.40 and above soon after. And in terms of valuations, if you want simple guidance to what it could do, just note that medium sized gold miners producing around 100,000 ozs give or take some, tend to have market caps in excess of $500 million - RED is almost half that market cap at present, thus a doubling in price from here is very possible in a short timeframe once confirmation of gold production ramp up is continuing.

Oh by the way Boggo, actually my accounting was very accurate - I was referring to your twin who suggested it would fall to $1.20. But as others have posted, this is the RED thread, and I'm much happier posting re RED. After all its now starting to finally get some traction in the market.


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## Moit (7 February 2012)

Hi all, hi Beatle...

Mate have a look at the RED  5 website. Petra Capital and Casimir Capital have put out further broker reports. 1 down grading, and 1 up grading, after yesterdays 228 ounce gold/silver block, lol.

Anyhow interesting, have a read..

Cheers Moit.


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## tech/a (7 February 2012)

beatle said:


> Oh by the way Boggo, actually my accounting was very accurate - I was referring to your twin who suggested it would fall to $1.20. But as others have posted, this is the RED thread, and I'm much happier posting re RED. After all its now starting to finally get some traction in the market.




If your going to quote me don't be selective.

I said that if support was taken out RED could visit $1.20 infect even lower.
I also said 



> This analysis alters if the current high at $1.91 is taken out.




I'll cop whatever you want to throw at me but don't quote to suit yourself.

Got that " Chief " ??


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## tech/a (7 February 2012)

QUESTION
Learned Fundamentalists.

The pik of the ingot poured the other day looks pretty average.
I was under the impression purity = value.
From what I saw you wouldn't see $1700 an ounce for that!
Frankly it looks like something a few under grads could come up with.

So why all the who ha
Looks like a lot of work from here to produce a quality product or  is that as good as it gets?


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## Moit (7 February 2012)

Tech from my observations, the bar is from very low grade stock piles. If it where me id keep it, cause its the very first bar produced at Siana. But from my understanding the bar will be melted down again, (silver extracted) to produce a 99.9% gold bar of (actual gold). That of course would be sold. But just my thoughts. DYOR, and if anyone can assist please do...

Cheers Moit.


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## tech/a (7 February 2012)

Moit said:


> Tech from my observations, the bar is from very low grade stock piles. If it where me id keep it, cause its the very first bar produced at Siana. But from my understanding the bar will be melted down again, (silver extracted) to produce a 99.9% gold bar of (actual gold). That of course would be sold. But just my thoughts. DYOR, and if anyone can assist please do...
> 
> Cheers Moit.




Hmm if that's the case sounds like

" We better produce SOMETHING to settle the Indians " 

I wouldn't be happy JAN!


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## Boggo (7 February 2012)

It's a real pity that some of these threads end up with useless 'I said, he said' and other modified versions past reality in attempts to discredit other opinions.

There is a lot to be learned from both the fundamental and technical approach when it comes to stocks such as RED.
The reality however is that it has a* potentially* good future but at the moment it is just a 20 cent *trading stock* and that has been confirmed by its behaviour since late 2009.
The fact that it is priced at ove $2 is just a function of a decision to consolidate its price, no relevance whatsoever to numerous fundamentally sound stocks that are trading at around the same price.

At the moment it is achieving more by behaving in a manner that smart tech traders such as tech/a can capitalise on its behaviour.
This may not suit everyone and may not be what everyone would like to believe but it is the reality while it plays by the rules of retracement, expansion, support and resistance it is a lucrative short term exercise.

How people want to make money out of this is up to the individual and while we have the best forum in existence in Aust it is a pity that erratic stocks seem to create erratic and erroneous statements and quotes which indirectly are an attack on individuals who could easily have said "I told you so".

No one individual 'owns' the RED thread, it is available for all to comment on and there will be numerous opinions and some very good homework both from the fundamental and technical perspective.

Below is an example of both a technically based statement on the 29th Nov and a fundamentally based statement on the 30th which highlights the fact that this is a technical stock at the moment but at some point the fundamental factors will take over.
The chart below is reality.

Lets play the stock how it works best at the moment.

_29th November_ - 







tech/a said:


> Nothing is going to happen.
> *At best price will do nothing
> At worst It will drop.*
> 
> ...




_30th November_ - 







beatle said:


> I presume you refer to the price in your opinion doing nothing Tech/a, rather than actual things happening onsite at Siana. If they produce a small bar of gold at the start and the price does nothing, its still "the small step for man, a giant leap for mankind" sort of activity, that is more relevant for me as a knowledgeable shareholder of RED.
> 
> At this stage of Siana's development, every small move forward gives confidence that Siana is working as a gold recovery plant. Thus whilst its not the big statement that hopefully *RED will produce about 1.5 tonnes of gold this current financial year at a whopping profit, its the fact that the operation is moving inline with expectations at this early stage*.
> 
> The first small bar of gold might be a bit too subtle for some posting here, and maybe its not relevant for those who have no interest to either hold any shares or seek to buy any. Each to his own I guess!




(click to expand)


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## tech/a (8 February 2012)

I have escaped at $2.23 and $2.24.
Nice little trade again.


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## jancha (8 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> I have escaped at $2.23 and $2.24.
> Nice little trade again.




Nice work Tech. Looks like you pick about the right price to sell before RED dropped back down to as low as $2.14. Now currently $2.17. At what point would you re-enter?


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## tech/a (8 February 2012)

> At what point would you re-enter?




I dont know yet.
But I ALWAYS place a conditional buy order at 1-2 ticks above the current high.
Just like I did at $1.95.
See I get exits wrong often enough to have learnt.

"Get out early enough to place a conditional order close enough for a turn of bullishness to be exploited"

In doing so I get it wrong from time to time. I do have conditions which must be met to execute a sell. Doing it early locks in max profit and if it turns is not that painful with lost profit from getting out prematurely.
You can see what I mean with my missing of my conditional buy at $1.73----Bugga.

That said.
If RED continues to drop/consolidate I will be dictated to by price action and volumes and will withdraw the conditional order if I enter before it is triggered.

Ill keep following RED.
I know "The Chief" will be google eyed waiting for the next up date.
Here to please.


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## jancha (8 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> I dont know yet.
> But I ALWAYS place a conditional buy order at 1-2 ticks above the current high.
> Just like I did at $1.95.
> See I get exits wrong often enough to have learnt.
> ...




Cheers Tech
Yes i bought in again at $1.84 and yet to sell. Fairly high volume today and seems to have support at $2.15. I'm looking at selling that portion of RED at $2.30.
See what happens.


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## beatle (8 February 2012)

Another great day for RED, and yes Moit, as in your past commentary, so long as you can trade in and out of RED over the next while, picking the highs and lows as Tech/a etc are aiming to do, then for sure you will make a hell of a lot more out of your RED than I will do. And I would love to do it, but the issue for me now is that I believe that RED WILL deliver over the next few months if things go according to the feasibility study, thus I am too scared to be out at a time (even for a portion of my holdings) when it could be THE day that transforms RED into a more respectably priced gold producer. But for those who don't have such a concern then its clearly a good strategy because if you don't get full price then you won't be so concerned.

To answer Tech/a re the purity of the gold bar, don't be concerned by the amount of gold versus silver in the dore bar. Whatever the gold and silver is within that bar will be received by RED with its sales. We already know that there is a fair amount of silver with this gold deposit so that silver will come out at the same time within the same dore bars. And RED will get its sales of silver as well as gold from each bar. I could elaborate further but best to keep it simple for those who might not want a more technical answer. The only thing to note is that the quality of a dore bar is not relevant. Thus ANYONE who wants to use their ignorance to scaremonger and generalise that the gold is not worth keeping etc just proves my point that when someone sells their shares they then try to push the share price down so they can get back in more cheaply! That to me is proving their ingenuineness!!! 

(IF you want something more technical (and more chemistry than I can recall myself!) there is much reading material on the subject of quality of dore etc, and all I will say is that the cyanide in the solution leaches out both gold and silver from the ore, and both are adsorbed by the carbon which in turn are recovered within the electrowinning process onsite. The recovery of silver is less than that of the gold, and at this stage we are still to find out what the final recovery of ROM ore is for both, and especially relevant is the recovery factor for gold.)

Oh and by the way, this first gold dore bar was recovered from essentially the leftovers of the previous mining back in late 1980's. Whatever that dore consisted of is unlikely to be exactly the same as that to be produced from this new mining campaign. The ROM ore at Siana project, with no Mapawa pit contribution, is expected to be of higher grade than this first low grade ore put through.


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## beatle (8 February 2012)

I should have also had it noted that RED's gold dore bars, just like all the rest of the gold mining industry, do not refine their gold onsite. They sell each gold dore bar to a gold refinery, for the gold and silver content assayed for each bar, and that offsite refinery produces either 99.5 or 99.99% gold bars from the dore. RED has already got its cash before that refinery decides to refine it to whatever quality, unless RED decides to keep a bullion account with the refinery or financial institution.


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## beatle (8 February 2012)

Moit said:


> Hi all, hi Beatle...
> 
> Mate have a look at the RED  5 website. Petra Capital and Casimir Capital have put out further broker reports. 1 down grading, and 1 up grading, after yesterdays 228 ounce gold/silver block, lol.
> 
> ...




Hi Moit, yes its great to see that the brokers behind RED continue to recommend it as a Buy and up to a price around 50% higher than current price. But my view is that they continue to be guarded with their analysis knowing that RED has yet prove it can deliver performance at around feasibility study levels, let alone above them as is likely from the SAG mill onsite. This still depends upon the sticky ore situation, we are yet to hear about throughput rates that could get Siana humming at around 100,000 ozs and above within the next year or so (ie outside of feasibility study guidelines).

There are so many other factors that could influence RED's share price as well - once the plant is bedded down management must decide what is the final economic cutoff level for the new ore reserve based on the upgraded resource announced a few months ago. That could have the market really sharpening their pencils for RED as a takeover if the share price doesn't move up considerably in the next few months IMO. 

Then as AB has indicated, Mapawa exploration which has been forgotten about by all at this stage. This could once again completely change the situation for the valuation of RED, allowing for such considerable upside. 

I admit I am addicted to RED, but for good reason!


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## mgm1a (8 February 2012)

hey beatle - i wouldn't have thought over-working machinery was a good idea -is running the crusher at 150% like red lining the engine in a car??


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## Des P (8 February 2012)

mgm1a said:


> hey beatle - i wouldn't have thought over-working machinery was a good idea -is running the crusher at 150% like red lining the engine in a car??




Hows it going mgm1a, no it is nothing like that it depends on the ore going through the crusher,the crusher and mill have a maximum load factor that they can run to just for arguments sake if the crusher can produce a 1000 horse power that is all it will do,But if the ore is  a clay type ore it will be able to crush a lot more, if it was totally A quartz or or green belt or it would only be able to crush to it capacity of 1000Hp.
To put it in an easier term  if you drive a car on the bitumen it takes less horse power than if you were driving on sand. So if the ore has less hard rock and more soft clay it will take less HP to crush and the through put can be  a lot more.
I hope i haven't confused you 
Cheers
Des


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## Sapling (9 February 2012)

Tech/a I noted you were able to exit Red at the top of yesterdays spike, and was hoping you might let us know how you chose that time/day.

I'm thinking large volume day with strong price spike, but the day before had a larger price spike with almost as much volume. Or was it to do with resistance at $2.30.


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## mr. jeff (9 February 2012)

Sapling said:


> Tech/a I noted you were able to exit Red at the top of yesterdays spike, and was hoping you might let us know how you chose that time/day.
> 
> I'm thinking large volume day with strong price spike, but the day before had a larger price spike with almost as much volume. Or was it to do with resistance at $2.30.




I could almost certainly say that it was in expectation of resistance at that level. Particularly as it was an exit in the morning without any of the days action to judge from. Plus it was going to be an up day which would see plenty of people look for the door in the afternoon. Conditions were perfect.


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## Sapling (9 February 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> I could almost certainly say that it was in expectation of resistance at that level. Particularly as it was an exit in the morning without any of the days action to judge from. Plus it was going to be an up day which would see plenty of people look for the door in the afternoon. Conditions were perfect.




Thanks Mr Jeff, makes sense


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## tech/a (9 February 2012)

Sapling said:


> Tech/a I noted you were able to exit Red at the top of yesterdays spike, and was hoping you might let us know how you chose that time/day.
> 
> I'm thinking large volume day with strong price spike, but the day before had a larger price spike with almost as much volume. Or was it to do with resistance at $2.30.




Both You and Jeff have part of the explaination.
Price action leading into support or resistance is important.
We had increasing volume on 3 up days and this leading up to 
resistance gave it a high probability of correcting.

I was watching and noticed that $2.24 was struggling I placed an at market sell which saw some at each level taken out. These conditions set a high probability down day (Inside Day--is common).
I attempt and often get wrong as close to the high as possible so re entry is not costly and I dont drop to much on a pullback.

Todays price action was under whelming.---as was most everything else out there.


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## mrlister (9 February 2012)

Today was a bit of a let down, but on a positive note it did bounce back from 2.07, so seems there is quite a bit of support from about 2.10. Of which is to be expected. I think it will bounce between today's low and yesterday's high for a while until more positive news is announced.


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## mardo (9 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> Today was a bit of a let down, but on a positive note it did bounce back from 2.07, so seems there is quite a bit of support from about 2.10. Of which is to be expected. I think it will bounce between today's low and yesterday's high for a while until more positive news is announced.




I think you need to look at the Macro  situation for a while.Red has risen from $1.52 on Jan 25 th to close of $2.14 today,I regard that as a pretty good run up.They still haven't had any firm production at the moment and those results are at least 3 months away.The whole Gold section is in limbo at the moment on what the analysts are predicting and Red, according to Casimir is only worth $3.00 over a 12 month view.I think Red is about where it should be but with a downside risk untill further posative announcements.All is dependant on the Macro and what happens to Greece(Europe Etc.]


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## Moit (9 February 2012)

Tech, you have mentioned inside day quiet a few times on this thread and others. Mate can you please clarify that, for the small few that just don't get it, but want to learn.... 

Cheers Moit.


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## tech/a (10 February 2012)

Moit said:


> Tech, you have mentioned inside day quiet a few times on this thread and others. Mate can you please clarify that, for the small few that just don't get it, but want to learn....
> 
> Cheers Moit.




Moit
I'll knock up a piece on inside bars and their place in a chart over on the Technical Analysis thread--- sometime over the weekend.
They are important bars to watch for and very common.
In particular they can be anticipated and traded.


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## mrlister (10 February 2012)

i really dont know whether to ride the highs and lows on this one or just get out now. id love to get 2.25 for it at least though. the big question is, have people seen that that first gold may have been smoke and mirrors just to keep the people optimistic?


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## tech/a (10 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> i really dont know whether to ride the highs and lows on this one or just get out now. id love to get 2.25 for it at least though. *the big question is, have people seen that that first gold may have been smoke and mirrors just to keep the people optimistic*?




*AND*

That is one of the reasons I trade technically.
I can make exactly that judgement based purely on Price action.

I dont have to ponder/guess or decide on that in Black.
I look at things a little differently.
So right now your talking about 10c
Whats your risk? More than 10c?


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## jah008 (10 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> i really dont know whether to ride the highs and lows on this one or just get out now. id love to get 2.25 for it at least though. the big question is, have people seen that that first gold may have been smoke and mirrors just to keep the people optimistic?




Its hard to stop thinking things like... "oh if i wait and it goes up another 10cents I could make another 10% but I'm not sure what the share price is going to do." These kind of thoughts will slowly end your share trading days. You'll lose more then you gain. 

When you buy into a share. Assess what the share price is going to do. Formulate your buy in price, your sell price and your stop sell to limit your risk if you got it wrong. You will live longer and make smaller but more consistent profits. Learn technical Analysis.

You will make mistakes. Limit it and Learn from it.


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## mr. jeff (10 February 2012)

RED has been worrying for quite a long time, with little reporting from management and less when things aren't going right on site. Although I don't agree with that approach I understand what they are trying to achieve. (Although it doesn't work).

That piece of metal that got poured is highly significant in any company's life, it marks THE major milestone where all the effort of the shareholders and staff finally has amounted to something of value to sell. That is what every production company is started for. 

There would not be any tricks to that bar at all as it is such an effort to get there. On balance there is not much downside risk in RED at the moment, if you look at the price history during its run up to production you would notice that it has been at this level and higher without any concrete results on site. 

Now that we have these results, there is much to be seen in the medium term as Beatle bangs on about. (And for such a persistent shareholder, rightly so!)

There have been multitudes of short term traders who got locked in at those lower levels during the "plumbing of the depths" last quarter, and this was compounded by the consolidation which was an altogether miserable experience for everyone. So off days of selling are to be expected as all those who have been itching to get out at break-even or with a slight profit are now doing so. This will have to wash through for a little while as the greedy and fear filled traders jump ship for safety. Who knows if the smarties or dumbies are the ones left behind ?

Once a pile of that stock has been transferred, hopefully management will fire off a production update (guided by their advisor) with some good news to help get it marked up through the 2.30 level  (maybe extra mill throughput etc.) and then probably expect some consolidation at that sort of high. The valuations in the next few months will start looking at worst and best cases and then the excitement will start to drain and it will be up to the price of gold and the performance of the mine. Hopefully extensional drilling will pick up something decent and/or RED announce new tenement exploration or takeover interest.

We have all considered that selling marks the skill of a share trader, and getting out at 2.15 is not much different from 2.25 unless you have tens of thousands of units. 

Good luck today and remember it is Friday, the buying day of the week!


----------



## mrlister (10 February 2012)

Good advice. Cheers


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## mr. jeff (10 February 2012)

I ought to clarify that I have not in any way given any advice to buy or sell anything. I was putting forth an opinion on the market for RED at this time.
Sorry if that was in any way misconstrued.
Joe if this is unnecessary please remove from the thread.

Cheers.


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## mrlister (10 February 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> I ought to clarify that I have not in any way given any advice to buy or sell anything. I was putting forth an opinion on the market for RED at this time.
> Sorry if that was in any way misconstrued.
> Joe if this is unnecessary please remove from the thread.
> 
> Cheers.




i was referring to the post by jah008 as good advice.


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## tech/a (10 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> i was referring to the post by jah008 as good advice.




Geez Jeff I dont know about you but I feel gutted!


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## mrlister (10 February 2012)

im sure jeff's is good advice too....just hadn't read it yet!!


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## jancha (10 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> Geez Jeff I dont know about you but I feel gutted!




Lol Now Now Tech we all feel a bit gutted but lets not show too much emotion over it.


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## jah008 (10 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> Geez Jeff I dont know about you but I feel gutted!




I feel a bit warm and fuzzy. But Tech/A deserves a bit of the credit. I'm learning a lot from this fella in his tech analysis threads.


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## tech/a (10 February 2012)

jah008 said:


> I feel a bit warm and fuzzy. But Tech/A deserves a bit of the credit. I'm learning a lot from this fella in his tech analysis threads.




Only Joshing---dont take my humor seriously----Im not looking for Cred!


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## tech/a (10 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> Only Joshing---don't take my humor seriously----I'm not looking for Cred!




RED showing some resilience.
Being held up by low volume
This indicates lack of supply.
Current price action is also showing that we are likely to see
some consolidation in the near term. (Forgoing any price shocks
like Europe,production at 1000oz a week etc).

Watching on for the time being.
Have removed my buy stop order.


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## mrlister (10 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> RED showing some resilience.
> Being held up by low volume
> This indicates lack of supply.
> Current price action is also showing that we are likely to see
> ...




what price you thinking on jumping back on? do you mind if i ask what your buy stop order was?


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## tech/a (10 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> what price you thinking on jumping back on? do you mind if i ask what your buy stop order was?




Dont know yet.
$2.26


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## beatle (10 February 2012)

Hi All, and good to read your commentary/advice/non-advice (lol) Jeff!  IMO your commentary was a pretty good summary of recent and expected events etc, and I would like to add to it. 

RED is like most other gold producers now, APART from the simple fact that its production history has only just begun, thus investors are still to be convinced that Siana has the capacity to deliver significant amounts of gold continuously at low cost, thus the complete re-rating according to its underlying valuation (and eventually a premium to that valuation!) is yet to happen. Thus IF its end of Feb statement of guidance that we expect next is based on confirmation that gold production won't be dogged by erratic throughput from hereon due to sticky ore THEN RED should move towards that valuation price, and provided the price of gold remains above US$1,200 or thereabouts then RED has a LOT more to go up than $2.30!!! 

Its only once it gets to that underlying valuation price (and of course that varies according to whoever chooses whatever gold price for future years) that we probably will see RED move in train with the rest of the gold producers. So my view is that RED should move up over the next few months if the plant (and ore) behaves.

Of course the TA on the nanosecond trading is a different picture altogether, but seems to me most of the TA requires confirmation of movements that loses the chance to pick the highs and lows anyways. Its those highs and lows that we would all like to pick successfully but no one is able to do that. Even Tech/a who seems to know a lot about TA requires considerable confirmatory movements before making his move - do you agree Tech/a (that is not a cynical question, its my observation of your own apparent decision making in RED - for example it took you all the time for RED to move from around $1.45 up to $1.95 before you were prepared to put in a buy order. Thus for those who want to invest in RED but still try to do some intra day trading of part of the stock is more theoretical than is probably possible).


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## tech/a (10 February 2012)

> Even Tech/a who seems to know a lot about TA requires considerable confirmatory movements before making his move - do you agree Tech/a (that is not a cynical question, its my observation of your own apparent decision making in RED - for example it took you all the time for RED to move from around $1.45 up to $1.95 before you were prepared to put in a buy order. Thus for those who want to invest in RED but still try to do some intra day trading of part of the stock is more theoretical than is probably possible).




T/A in a discretionary sence can be clear instantly or can take a little longer---If you read the thread you'll note I had RED a lot earlier than $1.95 and missed a re entry buy order when price gapped over my entry at $1.72.
I am not attempting to pick hoghs or lows.
Only momentum--positive (Entry) negative (Exit).

Quite Different.


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## beatle (10 February 2012)

Thanks Tech/a for your comment, although in my book a miss by an inch or a mile is still a miss. But of course with RED there will be many more opportunities as it moves further up IMO.


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## tech/a (10 February 2012)

beatle said:


> Thanks Tech/a for your comment, although in my book a miss by an inch or a mile is still a miss. But of course with RED there will be many more opportunities as it moves further up IMO.




There is no miss.

Only proven correct or proven incorrect.
Where momentum is confirmed (as far as the individual analyst is concerned) has no bearing on the high or the low to the analyst---only outside observers.
If momentum continues in the direction we think is indicated then we are proven correct.
If it is proven in correct the trained analyst will have a contingency plan in place.
If in correct on entry he will have a stop in place
If in correct on exit ( Happened just today on PEN for me) he will have a re entry stratagy.

The end result should be more profit from wins than loses from losing trades.
to the trained analyst---a snap.


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## tech/a (11 February 2012)

Moit said:


> Tech, you have mentioned inside day quiet a few times on this thread and others. Mate can you please clarify that, for the small few that just don't get it, but want to learn....
> 
> Cheers Moit.




*INSIDE DAYS*


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23721&p=684369#post684369


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## Moit (11 February 2012)

Thanks Tech, i appreciate your time and effort. 

Looking forward to the read...

Cheers Moit...


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## notting (11 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> *INSIDE DAYS*
> 
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23721&p=684369#post684369




Valuable as always.:star:


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## Moit (12 February 2012)

Thanks again Tech, interesting. Is there any books out there that you could recommend??

Cheers Moit.


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## mrlister (13 February 2012)

another weird day for RED. rising on average volumes....do the techies expect a pull back tomorrow?


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## beatle (13 February 2012)

Agreed MrLister that RED had another great day. I expected it to be relatively flat or down slightly, knowing the timeframes of what is happening with Siana. But seems maybe someone is more informed about the status of the Siana commissioning.

We remain just over 2 weeks away from knowing how the plant performance is continuing, and therefore still officially a couple of weeks of being in the dark. But realistically, if the plant has indeed largely overcome the sticky ore situation, then its likely that a couple more gold pours have proceeded since that first pour of 3 Feb, thus there are people onsite that will know about this situation! Its not possible without continuously advising the market on perhaps a weekly basis, of informing the market as to exactly how things are proceeding onsite!

How the techies interpret the trading will be interesting, especially with the fairly strong close at the high of the day, $2.18, albeit on reasonable but relatively moderate volume (value of shares traded $1.078 million) compared to recent days. I honestly believe that RED is earning a reputation of being a good longer term share investment, although I understand that technical traders want to follow their charts on an objective basis. Its still got oodles of upside from a fundamental value point of view, thus its more important to consider that aspect than to consider the role of gold price movements in RED share price movements.


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## Starcraftmazter (13 February 2012)

I would say NCM led a bit of a rally in gold stocks today, wouldn't put too much into it.


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## mr. jeff (14 February 2012)

Looking good. The run up has been quick and relatively smooth.





From observation it appears that there is bullish sentiment and not much selling. Looking for a jump above the marked level and holding. An announcement stating good production would be handy, then some institutional buying/support would fit the bill. The 2.30 level is not the hard part, it's staying solidly above that for the short term!

Good luck today everyone, looking OK so far. A  nice spot to be in, they say ignorance is bliss, let's hope that is not the case here! 

I like the idea that on site it is going well and that is supporting the price.


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## Starcraftmazter (14 February 2012)

Pretty nasty day today, RED is the worst performer on my watchlist.

Good time to enter or a start of a consolidation in sp? The volume is somewhat high as well making me non-optimistic at least in the short term, seems like a rejection of the resistance for now?


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## tech/a (14 February 2012)

Firstly Jeff
No dis respect for your anaysis which I feel is sound
I have used your chart to mark up for selfish reasons
(I dont have another chart handy!).

Just some additional analysis observations.
Bottom line is I personally am looking at a potential
counter trend opportunity if it presents.

No I dont see this breaking into the wild blue younder.
From currently available price action.

*Click to Expand*
*

*


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## beatle (14 February 2012)

Yes agreed that today was disappointing for RED, with a lot of volume also. But what I find hard to understand with all the techies that look at trading information alone, is that they seem to be predicting the future outcome based on those factors alone, failing to realise that in fact RED is actually doing something very important at the moment on site which will alter its past history into a gold producer of significance, and a likely substantial maiden profit in the current financial year, although with few months ahead of it that profit will be only a skeric of what lies ahead for it!

So if you can't see it jumping into the blue yonder by looking at the charts then that's fine, but don't get so carried away to think your reading of the charts can ignore that RED is in the process of a considerable transformation, from explorer to significant gold producer. and the share price will soon reflect that change! Believe it or not, thats a fact. Charts or no charts.


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## tech/a (14 February 2012)

beatle said:


> Yes agreed that today was disappointing for RED, with a lot of volume also. But what I find hard to understand with all the techies that look at trading information alone, is that they seem to be predicting the future outcome based on those factors alone, failing to realise that in fact RED is actually doing something very important at the moment on site which will alter its past history into a gold producer of significance, and a likely substantial maiden profit in the current financial year, although with few months ahead of it that profit will be only a skeric of what lies ahead for it!
> 
> So if you can't see it jumping into the blue yonder by looking at the charts then that's fine, but don't get so carried away to think your reading of the charts can ignore that RED is in the process of a considerable transformation, from explorer to significant gold producer. and the share price will soon reflect that change! Believe it or not, thats a fact. Charts or no charts.




No arguement here!

Many times price will do something at absolute odds to Fundamentals.
Sure price will also reflect strong fundamentals---
Either way Fundamentals or no Fundamentals I'll see and be able to trade it from the charts.


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## beatle (15 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> No arguement here!
> 
> Many times price will do something at absolute odds to Fundamentals.
> Sure price will also reflect strong fundamentals---
> Either way Fundamentals or no Fundamentals I'll see and be able to trade it from the charts.




Tech/a, what is it about RED that has got you so focussed on it? ie what are the criteria that has attracted your attention so that you spend at least some of your TA time analysing it and putting so much effort into posting on it? Seems you put a lot more effort into analysing it and posting on it that it provides you in terms of profit returns. (Again this is not a loaded or cynical question, its more my interest to understand why you have chosen RED as a potential trade).


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## tech/a (15 February 2012)

beatle said:


> Tech/a, what is it about RED that has got you so focussed on it? ie what are the criteria that has attracted your attention so that you spend at least some of your TA time analysing it and putting so much effort into posting on it? Seems you put a lot more effort into analysing it and posting on it that it provides you in terms of profit returns. (Again this is not a loaded or cynical question, its more my interest to understand why you have chosen RED as a potential trade).




Behaves nicely technically.
Presents some opportunity


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## Moit (15 February 2012)

Hi all, Well I'm out of RED today at a modest profit and into NST. Sorry Beatle but I'm trying not to get emotionally involved in stocks. Especially when there's good breakouts, like NST today. Up 10ish %. 

Tech were you on board this morning with NST. Can you jump over...


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## tech/a (15 February 2012)

No
Happy to join the NST thread.
Any CHIEFS over there.


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## mgm1a (15 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> Behaves nicely technically.



 ??
tech/a; i'm b##g##d if i can see that - so many troughs and it never wants to stay at the peaks


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## tech/a (15 February 2012)

mgm1a said:


> ??
> tech/a; i'm b##g##d if i can see that - so many troughs and it never wants to stay at the peaks




Well that's understandable.
After 19 yrs of doing this stuff I guess there are things I see that others who haven't looked at 20000 charts don't see easily.

Just take your statement ---- your right and you and I can profit from that.
I sold at very near that peak.
It powered on making a. New high--- I bought there.---earlier.
Did exactly the same earlier again in fact it did it better than I expected gapping over my buy stop.

That's not clever it's simply short term analysis.


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## Starcraftmazter (16 February 2012)

I have a feeling all of NST's buying today is from disgruntled RED holders switching 

I've held both several times in the last few months, neither right now, but I'm feeling quite bullish for both...just a matter of finding good entry points again.


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## Chasero (16 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> I have a feeling all of NST's buying today is from disgruntled RED holders switching
> 
> I've held both several times in the last few months, neither right now, but I'm feeling quite bullish for both...just a matter of finding good entry points again.




I sold all my other goldies a while ago, ocg, red, mml etc lols.

Only gold stock I hold atm is NST.


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## mr. jeff (16 February 2012)

I am avoiding work. Nothing new here.
RED has been up and down. 

Convincing break that holds above 2.30 will be a great time to enter. Today so far is light volume down day. You could try an entry on that weakness assuming that the buyers will return, but the risk that it only runs up to 2.15 ish again is still there.

Ignoring the charts, that $2 level seems to have some resistance to it and the feeling there is that it won't break down below that level now that the gold is being produced (is it still working?) it should see further positive rerating as the production rates materialize. (This is where the excitement gets killed, you can get no announcement for a long time and then when it does come traders are out quickly!)

Lets hope for a good update soon and good luck with your entry Starcraftmazter, should see something definitive soon!


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## beatle (16 February 2012)

Hi All RED followers, wow a lousy day for RED (and many others!). And its yet to end by the look of it. But from a long term investors point of view I see these troughs as buying opportunities for those who want an entry into a longer term gold investment that should beat the gold equity index by a long shot! I'm already set and now just waiting for the next bounce which should surpass the recent peak at $2.24.

Moit I'm sad you are out but hope you made something from your past investment. And if you are in NST hope it works out for you. Maybe you can say I'm emotionally involved, certainly I know the stock much better than most others on the market from a personal involvement in the stock, but actually I stick by my view that it will outperform most over the longer term. I should also admit that I hold stock at very low prices, and whilst annualised it isn't so great the investment is overall a strong positive for me already. Any significant moves up now are just cream, a lot of that cream is at half tax rates due to the period held!

From the looks of it many traders are out of RED now, particularly the past few days trading, and I guess Tech/a who seems to have a very strong following will feel quite chuffed about that (yes Tech/a seems you "singlehandedly" as you put in a few of those past posts have a huge following) and good luck to you all but once out of RED means no more pressure from the TA I guess). Those traders hopefully will be replaced by some longer term holders who are waiting for that next big move that I anticipate, and that MrJeff refers to - but I can't say the volume is too light getting closer to 1 million out today.


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## tech/a (16 February 2012)

> From the looks of it many traders are out of RED now, particularly the past few days trading, and I guess Tech/a who seems to have a very strong following will feel quite chuffed about that (yes Tech/a seems you "singlehandedly" as you put in a few of those past posts have a huge following) and good luck to you all but once out of RED means no more pressure from the TA I guess). Those traders hopefully will be replaced by some longer term holders who are waiting for that next big move that I anticipate, and that MrJeff refers to - but I can't say the volume is too light getting closer to 1 million out today.




This is a sad observation.

One which shows serious flaws in thinking.
If you think a single poster on a single forum can move a sigle stock price ---infact influence its performance---then you need to re think your involvement in trading!!



> and good luck to you all but once out of RED means no more pressure from the TA I guess




Just lunacy.


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## beatle (16 February 2012)

tech/a said:


> If you think a single poster on a single forum can move a sigle stock price ---infact influence its performance---then you need to re think your involvement in trading!!
> 
> 
> 
> Just lunacy.




Tech/a, I don't trade, I invest. And I don't need to rethink my involvement in investing in RED or the equity markets. 

I believe that the market IS swayed by commentators, and the share price can be swayed in the short term by various commentators. Even on ASF, and even by you, believe it or not!

I might be a lunatic but that's a different matter, lol (just ask the missus!).

I remain and will remain invested in RED because I believe it remains a much undervalued gold stock, with much upside due in its share price. At a time when I consider that RED has joined the gold stocks at comparative value I too will be re-considering my holdings, but for now I have 1 question that I ask myself daily - do I expect RED to go up or down in the coming months. At the moment, guess what my answer is (and has remained)? UPPPP.
Simple as that really. Lunacy, nahhh.


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## Chasero (16 February 2012)

Doubt the readers on ASF have the capital to significantly influence any shares

Just look at the numerous threads where traders have gotten stomped even amidst boasting and averaging down, believing their stock will go up no matter what.

People are buying into NST because anns are in March.

Just like people bought into RED on upcmoing gold pour in November. (and it reached highs around $2.30ish).


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## tech/a (16 February 2012)

> This is a sad observation.
> 
> One which shows serious flaws in thinking.
> If you think a single poster on a single forum can move a single stock price ---infact influence its performance---then you need to re think your involvement in trading!!




Not talking about the stock.

I'm sick to death of idiots making ridiculous immature remarks that have absolutely no bearing on why I'm on any thread.
I offer my own analysis on a chart NOTHING more and Nothing less.
You can sit on your stock until hell freezes over----I just dont care.

I make and have never made any remark or judgement on any of your Fundamental presentations.
I have absolutely NO interest in them.

You shouldn't care what I post --- whether I profit or go down in a screaming heap.

Your misguided gullible incessant innuendo that I'm posting analysis which is self serving IS PLAIN LUNACY. 

Your now added to my ignore list.

I suggest you place me in YOUR ignore list as well so my analysis doesn't up set you.


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## mardo (17 February 2012)

Hi Beatle,
I agree to your point of view at the moment.We are within 2 weeks of Red5  (providing budget details through to June 2013 and will provide production guidance including estimated cash flows). These reports should put the final brick in the wall for where we are going and as such could see the share price rise to reflect the gold value at Siana.
I am fully loaded up at these prices and  eagerly looking for some posative details at months end.


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## mrlister (17 February 2012)

Who says we will get report? Haven't they just been quarterly so far?


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## mardo (17 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> Who says we will get report? Haven't they just been quarterly so far?




Hi it's the last paragraph on Red's announcment of the first gold pour  dated 6th Feb.Cheers.


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## mrlister (17 February 2012)

Cheers mate


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## beatle (17 February 2012)

Another pretty ordinary day for RED, seems that all are awaiting the news out that could help transform the company in the eyes of serious investors. Having waited patiently for a long time I can wait that little bit longer for some positive news re gold production and profit forecasts, but geez its so frustrating! I can understand why some have sold their shares and gone on to other stocks, but RED is yet to show its true worth IMO.

As for Tech/a, wow not sure if being on ignore he can't see my post or he just doesn't want to see it, lol, but taking my footy and going home is not me! 




tech/a said:


> I'm sick to death of idiots making ridiculous immature remarks that have absolutely no bearing on why I'm on any thread.
> . . . .
> You can sit on your stock until hell freezes over----I just dont care.
> . . . .
> ...




I don't believe in ignore lists! I prefer to read all posts and make my decisions/posts knowing as much information as I can. Call me a lunatic and an idiot if you want, I'm prepared to take it.

Anyways I'm interested in a balanced debate on RED's worth and that's why I post on the RED thread and happy to respond to any positive or negative comments/questions.


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## tech/a (19 February 2012)

Possible pennant set-up here.
I like the low volume after a higher
volume down day which found
buying.


Click to expand


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## beatle (19 February 2012)

AN OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS!!!

Beatle you are “too emotionally attached to your RED shares”.

I agree that I continually “harp on” about how under-valued I consider RED share price is. I have decided to undertake a very objective analysis of RED share price, which considers the current state of play with the commissioning at Siana. We know that first gold was poured on Feb 3 2012. We can assume that:
1.	Commissioning continues with gradual ramp up in production over the coming weeks/months towards the end of financial year, and possibly way beyond that into the next financial year;
2.	Siana is probably being affected somewhat by the tail end of the wet season at present, with it possibly lasting another month or so (ie end of March).
I have assumed that those factors combined will impact negatively on production, grade of ROM ore into the plant, and gold recovery rate in the coming months. This will therefore result on a discount to ideal model gold production and Siana profitability compared to the feasibility study model.

The following summary assumes:
1.	Gradual increase in plant productivity (or plant utilisation), gradual pickup in gold and silver grades in ROM ore and metal recovery factors, towards but NOT attaining feasibility study ideals in the following 18 month analysis;
2.	Current gold price and exchange rate;
3.	No outside influences eg further Eurozone destabilisation, USA quantitative easing stance etc.

OF COURSE I can be WRONG with any of my assumptions and expectations for ramp up, but I have used a lot of discount factors in the analysis to cover for unseen circumstances.

Summary of Analysis

Gold (Au)/silver (Ag) production (Ounces)

Feb   1,850 Au, 6,010 Ag

Feb-June 2012  15,540 Au,  53,950 Ag

2012/2013 FY  54,260 Au, 136,000 Ag

Net Profit – I assume an overall operating cost of US$550/oz for initial production:

Feb-June 2012  Net profit of A$18.2 million

2012/2013   Net profit of A$62.1 million

Annualised PE

Feb-June 2012   14.8

2012/2013  4.3

If we ASSUME the long term PE is 8, then that FORCES RED share price towards a price of:

Feb-June 2012 production  $2.73

2012/2013 production $3.88

IF RED achieves better than those heavily discounted production figures THEN that should FORCE the RED share price higher than $3.88!!!

IF you IGNORE that analysis then you are not considering the fact that RED remains highly under-valued compared to its peer gold producing group. And yes of course there WILL be uncertainties associated with both that analysis and the influences of outside factors, those contribute to why ALL shares suffer pullbacks and short term corrections. But what I believe is most important, for even those trading RED is that over the longer term the share price is more likely to go UP than down! From a chartist/traders perspective, and if you are going “long” on a stock trade its better to bias your chances of  the share price to go up than to go down. Based on this fundamental reasoning RED should continue to trend up, thus it is one of the better reasons to trade RED than a stock that has nothing going for it to outperform the market. 

BUT in my mind RED is now a good investment gold stock, at least until it moves much closer to its underlying fundamental value, rather than a short term trade where you can lose much value that is yet to be derived with its share price if you interpret the ups and downs wrong!

Be aware that RED is primarily an insto stock, more than 60% of the shares are held in insto’s. And with the consolidation It has been prepared now for the larger investor market:
1.	It is NOT a penny dreadful in the eyes of the larger North American investment funds, and it has an undervalued but still significant market cap approaching $300 million;
2.	RED is likely to be included in the top 100 ASX listed stocks based on liquidity, profitability and growth in market cap in the next 6 months or so, that in itself will force more general funds groups to invest in RED;
3.	Marketing has been very limited in the recent months due to getting the plant up and running, once marketing begins in earnest then RED should be more widely considered than presently;
4.	The larger investment community looks at profitability and growth, as determined by EPS and PE values, and valuations, rather than other considerations such as pure technical analysis;
5.	RED policy is to provide dividends (that funds group seek) – even if you don’t personally seek a dividend its policy should be positive for capital appreciation due to dividends to bigger funds groups.

In conclusion, IF RED were to announce that its gold production for Feb were around the estimated 1,850 ozs, then its likely production path should follow a route somewhat to what I ‘m forecasting, and you can assume a short term share price movement towards $2.73 and beyond that towards $3.88. IF RED were to exceed that Feb target of 1,850 ozs gold THEN those short and medium term price targets are probably very conservative! Of course there are likely to be bumps along the way, but share prices REALLY trade up in a straight line.

“too emotionally attached to your RED shares”? Nah, I don’t think so!


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## fwpike (20 February 2012)

I agree with every word Beatle. Of course we  are all waiting to see if that high production rate is sustainable in which case your figures are very conservative. 
Provided we can extract dividends the sp is immaterial to me. I look forward to living off Red for the next 15 years. I believe that Mpawa (sp?) has the potential to be bigger than Siana. The danger is that management pursues exploration (and thus their employment security) at the cost of low dividends. That is why I wanted any management pay rises to be related to dividends.


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## mrlister (20 February 2012)

a big cross trade of around 550k shares just went through for RED. cant figure out if that is a good thing or a bad thing?


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## Starcraftmazter (20 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> a big cross trade of around 550k shares just went through for RED. cant figure out if that is a good thing or a bad thing?




How about not good or bad?


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## beatle (20 February 2012)

Thanks Fwpike, seems we are both seeking to live off RED for the next years as it steadily increases production and share price (I'd prefer a few more than 15 years!). I agree with you that future salaries should be linked to performance outcomes that have rewarded us long standing shareholders along the way (but not sure any management team do that regardless of what they say).

Actually I meant to say that "stocks RARELY trade up in a straight line" (not REALLY) and I forgot to mention that IF Siana doesn't produce 1,850 ozs in Feb then it just means we have to wait a bit longer! That's the real positive of the analyis in my mind, ie the only way is UP (even if there are bumps along the way!). Let's hope the A$ gold price behaves itself.

That big cross trade could be anything but most importantly its found a "home", wherever and whatever that "home" is really isn't an issue now.


----------



## tech/a (20 February 2012)

Grabbed a bit on close.


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## beatle (20 February 2012)

Good to read that Tech/a. IF you decided to hold RED rather than trade it you might make a few more bob over the coming weeks IMO - the news re Feb production and forecast production for the following 16 months is due out later next week. Now is the time to get set IMO!!!


----------



## mgm1a (20 February 2012)

stocks RARELY trade up in a straight line....hmmm..beatle check out goldie RRL 2 year chart - its the strongest i've seen that doesn't have spikes or parabolas......


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## Buckfont (20 February 2012)

mgm1a said:


> stocks RARELY trade up in a straight line....hmmm..beatle check out goldie RRL 2 year chart - its the strongest i've seen that doesn't have spikes or parabolas......




mgm1a, why didn`t I twig to that and let beatle know. RRL has been one of the best investments I`ve made and yes it is upwards and onwards. I just wonder when the ride will stop. Any clues will be gratefully appreciated, especially amongst the more learned Tech analysts.


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## beatle (21 February 2012)

Hi Mgm1a, yes the chart of RRL fits the bill and clearly looking at its track record deserves such a strong share performance. It is many many steps ahead of RED in terms of gold production and resources/reserves, and that probably enthuses me more with the potential for RED once it gets on track with gold production, noting that RRL had a market cap comparable with RED some couple of years ago and since then has risen to $1.8 billion - RED is in its infancy with a market cap less than a 1/6h of RRL, but as I say it proves to me ONCE Siana starts pulling serious gold and Mapawa exploration begins again in earnest of where RED could possibly go to - but on its current resource base I can't see $1.8 billion, but certainly closer to $0.75 billion, ie still 1/3 of its potential without knowing all we need to know about the full Siana resource base - Siana has a lot of potential to add to its current resource base particularly since its grade at depth appears to be good with long intercepts.

I see RED buying time for the next few days until some anticipation what might lie ahead with its next announcement about how the ramp up in production is proceeding, and forecast for the next year.


----------



## mgm1a (21 February 2012)

buckfont -wow with RRL- i'm gonna keep a closer eye on you!

tech/a - in my simple ways i often use other goldie charts to compare to RED - I found a curious one yesterday plotting RED against CAY, a pretty small west african EXPLORER - using 2yr, 1 yr down to 3 months its curious how "close"  (sort of?) RED has tracked - then it struck me that RED is still being priced /bounced around as if it was an explorer rather than producer.! Surely a chart of a producer should pick itself up and make a name for itself?...any thoughts.....is that too "predictive" for T/A?


----------



## Boggo (21 February 2012)

Guys, seriously, comparing the current state of RED with RRL at the moment is drawing a long bow.
Sure, there may come a time when it may copy RRL and when it starts to then the charts will tell the story as they always do.

Below is a weekly chart of RRL and I have highlighted where my SMSF invested in it.
Have a look at the weekly chart of RRL vs RED and tell me what is similiar, nothing, RED is currently behaving as a 20c speccy should with the interest that is generated by its potential, at the moment though there is just no comparison on any level.

RED is a hit and run trading stock at the moment and until it gets some stability and settles into a pattern such as RRL it will be remain nothing more.

(click to expand)


----------



## beatle (22 February 2012)

Boggo said:


> Guys, seriously, comparing the current state of RED with RRL at the moment is drawing a long bow.
> Sure, there may come a time when it may copy RRL and when it starts to then the charts will tell the story as they always do.
> 
> Below is a weekly chart of RRL and I have highlighted where my SMSF invested in it.
> ...




Still sharing the load with your twin eh Boggo - perhaps you need to put me on Ignore too, lol!

Just remember Tech/a er Boggo, that RED has a market cap now of close to $300 million, not bad for a 20 cents speccy as you term it, with around 30 insto's as shareholders on the books!  

RED had a pretty good day for a speccy, up another 5 cents with trading turnover for the day of more than $2 million and now its just a matter of counting down the days for production guidance - and its a "speccy" - REALLY? Why is it a speccy Boggo? You lose credibility as soon as you try to ridicule RED as such IMO!


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## dave1234 (22 February 2012)

No offence but is the tit for tat comments really needed? Some people are in it for the long run, others are looking for a quick profit. The more views and trading strategies presented the better if you ask me. Always something you can learn from a different perspective.


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## Boggo (22 February 2012)

dave1234 said:


> No offence but is the tit for tat comments really needed?




Hi Dave. Are you suggesting that my charting comparison of RRL vs RED is a "tit for tat" comment.

My intention is to state the reality of both and then support that statement with a chart comparison example and a suggestion what anyone can do to see what I mean.

If it wasn't directed at me then disregard this post.

Cheers.


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## dave1234 (22 February 2012)

Was just in general mate. I think people should be able to present their views without having to take a swipe or use of the ignore function.

In any case, RED finished the day well.


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## mgm1a (22 February 2012)

boggo, beatle - i wasn't comparing RED to RRL. where did that come from?

I was merely pointing out their graph is so strong - its nice to know that at least one stock in the ASX universe go straight up at 45 degree angle.

But it is instructive to see that once a miner is actually mining that it changes the SP!


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## mrlister (24 February 2012)

Hey tech. What do you make of red atm? I ask as the fundamentalists are claiming it will rise once report is released, yet look at the number of people lined up to sell and you have to wonder why?


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## beatle (24 February 2012)

Hi All RED followers. Great to see RED up today, I hope you haven't sold out MrLister if you are in it at the moment!

Mgm1a, I didn't have any problem at all with your question and replied accordingly, that I saw RED being many steps behind RRL, both in share price but more importantly also behind in terms of gold production. But as I stated I saw RRL's share price performance as being something that RED could move towards as it went through the ramp up phase with Siana.

I believe that Boggo's calling RED as a 20cents speccy were totally unfounded and sought his reasons for calling it such. He didn't reply!

I understand that the board are on site to discuss future production forecasts etc, thus this move up in price today is a good guide that things must be progressing well. But IMO this move up is only the START of what is going to happen in coming weeks!!!


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## mr. jeff (24 February 2012)

Let's see how it looks at that 2.30 mark. If it can show strength above that, I may buy. 

I miss the times when it moved 6 - 7% a day and actually did something. Now I look on with interest when it manages to move more than 1%. You are right that things are looking good today and I hope that continues.

Good luck in this strength, or top or whatever it is. 2.29 as we speak and not too much volume. May clear that level over the next trading days, certainly with POG action helping.


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## anderbond (24 February 2012)

Hi Beatle and long term RED holders, looks like institutional buying over past several days to me. I understand Matthews is still selling but being replaced by other/s. Shareholder numbers are dropping over past two months so maybe traders are moving on. Revised production schedule and other numbers,steadily increasing gold price and further drilling results are all expected to keep the SP rolling forward IMO. Beatle, like you and others, I expect to finance my retirement (and my wife's retail therapy needs), and my RED wine collection from this stock over the next couple of years. AB


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## mrlister (24 February 2012)

beatle said:


> Hi All RED followers. Great to see RED up today, I hope you haven't sold out MrLister if you are in it at the moment!




not even close. come too far to bail now. on-wards and upwards!!


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## beatle (24 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> not even close. come too far to bail now. on-wards and upwards!!




Great to hear MrLister and fantastic end of week performance by RED today. RED up 8 cents,  +3.6%, with reasonably good volume of just under 900,000 shares valued at $2 million. Yep she's going up, how far anyone knows, but my view previously posted, is that if we get production of anything like 1,850 ozs of gold for February then first target price to achieve is around $2.70! With the ramp up continuing in following months then the medium term outlook, from a fundamental point of view (ie with bumps along the way!) is then around $3.80, based on assumed PE's that I previously alluded to. 

And yes AB, this is what we have been waiting for a long time. Perhaps if RED behaves then your wines will primarily consist of Grange! AB if you are correct about more insto buying replacing traders then its a very big positive as they won't be holding for a short term trade, they will be in for the longer term valuation price that analysts refer to.


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## tech/a (25 February 2012)

I have a forward sell stop in place on my trade.

Here is some analysis for those who wish to have something to look for technically in RED going forward.

*Click to expand*





Not all scenarios are marked on the chart.
High volume wide range out of the resistance area is a good sign.
High volume little upside is a very bad sign.

A headache and fever is also not a good sign!!
Nor is your bag packed at the front door!


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## notting (25 February 2012)

They gave me one of these at school.
After all these years I have finally found a use for it!





Thanks Tech will keep an eye on it.


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## mardo (25 February 2012)

Tech/a --Thanks for the chart and the tech reasoning.
Sure I agree we are going into the previous resistance zone and a lot will rest on any production  figures that Red may issue in the next week or so will determine where Red is to go.  
Also looking at the other Gold stocks ( Macro view)  a lot have not regained their previous November 2011 highs even though the gold price is moving up to the $1770 level.This seams to suggest a lot of the Gold stocks are looking very fully priced at the moment and a further pullback during March may be a posability.Therefore I agree any future volume shifts are the key as to holding or not.
What would be your normal long term hold be  1-4 days  or say 1-2 months?


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## tech/a (25 February 2012)

> Sure I agree we are going into the previous resistance zone and a lot will rest on any production figures that Red may issue in the next week or so will determine where Red is to go.




Much will be already priced into the current move.



> What would be your normal long term hold be 1-4 days or say 1-2 months?




Years
My long term trading is on the shelf for the time being.


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## Trembling Hand (25 February 2012)

notting said:


> They gave me one of these at school.
> After all these years I have finally found a use for it!
> 
> 
> ...




Notting I never see your attachments. They always look like this. Is that the same for everyone else?


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## notting (25 February 2012)

Not sure Trembler, I can see them.  Presumed everyone else could.
I'm not sure how to do those ones that you click on and they pop up in their own window. Just using the picture icon and putting in the URL after uploading. :dunno:


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## motorway (25 February 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Notting I never see your attachments. They always look like this. Is that the same for everyone else?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Same for me.See nothing.

Motorway


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## Boggo (25 February 2012)

motorway said:


> Same for me.See nothing.
> 
> Motorway





Same here - see nothing !


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## tech/a (25 February 2012)

Boggo said:


> Same here - see nothing !




Just a question mark.
Try photo shop


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## notting (25 February 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Notting I never see your attachments.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




My girlfriends all said the same thing.  I thought they were all just too big.
Guess I'll just have to change my avatar to this:


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## Trembling Hand (25 February 2012)

notting said:


> Not sure Trembler, I can see them.  Presumed everyone else could.
> I'm not sure how to do those ones that you click on and they pop up in their own window. Just using the picture icon and putting in the URL after uploading. :dunno:




Notting think there is something wrong. The code for your pics looks wrong  maybe Joe could see whats up.


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## notting (25 February 2012)

OK can you see this?


That's what it was up above, aluding to Techs 45 degree


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## Trembling Hand (25 February 2012)

notting said:


> OK can you see this?
> View attachment 46211
> 
> That's what it was up above, aluding to Techs 45 degree




Yep thats better.


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## beatle (27 February 2012)

This is likely to be an exciting week for RED shareholders, as an announcement is imminent early in March (thus possibly this Friday announcement) of how Siana is going with respect to its first month of gold production. And interestingly RED share price is sitting close to its historic  high gold price, reached intra-day of $2.60 at the time of the heady days in late 2003 when RED was being courted by AngloGold for a position within some of its exploration areas about Siana.

We know that first gold was poured on Feb 3, thus almost an entire month of gold production has occurred, but given that they are still going through a ramp up phase of production from the pit and processing its unlikely Siana has reached anywhere near the top of its processing capacity at this early stage. But this first month of gold production is likely to provide much confidence for the big insto following that RED enjoys, hopefully to start building bigger positions within the company. If that is to occur, and that is speculation, we could see the historic high of $2.60 topped, but first of all its necessary to break through the more recent resistance levels of $2.30's that has held sway for traders to make cash as it has range traded in more recent times.

I have no doubt that with the months to follow of increasing gold production we will see the $2.60 finally breached and a move towards and beyond $3.00 is likely. I hope we see new highs made earlier than later, as it is likely to finally break to trader view that RED is a range bound stock, and as Mgm1a put it, following a transformation path similar to that enjoyed by RRL. I think his analogy was well made and I look forward to RED finally beginning to show share price performance that us longer term shareholders have been waiting for, for so long!

Ok RED, now its your turn, up, up and away!!!


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## mr. jeff (27 February 2012)

Very diplomatic and well said Beatle, with you there and watching closely. 
Exciting times.


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## dave1234 (27 February 2012)

Spoke too soon, day was looking good...


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## Starcraftmazter (27 February 2012)

Sad thing to happen, probably not the announcement you guys were hoping for.


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## investorpaul (27 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Sad thing to happen, probably not the announcement you guys were hoping for.




Puts everything into perspective when you hear news like that.

Condolences to the man's family and friends.


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## beatle (27 February 2012)

Yes it's a very sad announcement & puts all our views in a different perspective!


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## mrlister (27 February 2012)

Putting aside the bad news on site today......

with the current pause on RED, it looks like a large number of people 'playing the range' is drying up and have already sold off, and those left behind are the ones that are in it for the impending announcement and hopefully good news. No-one really wanting to sell cheap, no-one really wanting to spend above this resistance zone until news comes. 

a good old fashioned stand off!!


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## tech/a (27 February 2012)

Out at $2.30


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## mr. jeff (27 February 2012)

Agree with everyone, tragedy, especially for the person who fell and their family.

It is in my mind unacceptable that RED notify the market with a few lines and no follow up, and with a heading "Siana Gold Mine" hilarious, not "Death at Siana Gold Mine" or "Incident at Siana Gold Mine". Management wanted to mitigate the announcements effects ? They should have put "Gold production going to plan".
Surely they care more about someone's life than the stock price.

Couldn't have been worse - anyone who works in construction knows that the reality is that if the person is on your site you are responsible. To say "it's just misadventure" ie. their own fault (my interpretation) is crazy. If you have a big black hole with no  barrier and someone falls down it because they didn't know it was there when they are digging gold out of the ground for you, is that right ? Not in my mind. Even if they knew it was there, were drunk and riding a push bike across your site, management are still responsible for protecting workers. I clearly am missing something here and I freely admit that I am not a miner so I have no idea what I am talking about. If this was an Australian mine, would it be different ? 

Can't believe the stock held up today, my interpretation must be very wide of the mark, in which case I apologize for the rant, but my impressions of RED are being reviewed with every announcement. Not good.


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## mgm1a (27 February 2012)

mr jeff - i also concur - based on headline of ann. i was excited to open, hoping for an update.....quite a downer to come across it.

Yes, the wording seemed to indicate his not being where he should be, but as you say the company has a moral duty to ensure things safe as possible

regading the heading I thought they had a PR /comms outfit?

How a couple of other miners handled it
AVM 26/10/11 ann. heading "Fatality at..."
FMG 24/12/10 ann "Media Release .Incident at..."

however they seem to be following MMLs lead... 31/10/11 "Co-O Mine" heading when announcing in mine fatality.

My sympathy to his family, also.


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## mrlister (27 February 2012)

The only thing I can think of is that they were preparing for other announcement and didn't change title. It's an odd one really, don't think it would have been deliberate.


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## Moit (27 February 2012)

Hi all. My condolences to the poor mans family also. Absolute tragedy.

My thoughts exactly Mr Jeff. It doesn't matter if he were a contractor, red 5 employee or a man off the street, it is still there mine and there responsibility. And my interpretation of (misadventure), was that it was somewhat his fault. Is rubbish. I won't even go into the heading. In Australia someone would be in court. 

I actually work in a mine and if there is an near miss, incident or fatality there is always an I-cam investigation. Which will basically be investigated and find the exact cause of the problem and who is to blame.

We also have on rainy days or once a month sessions called toolbox talks or u days which are basically safety talks. And quite often serious incidents and most certainly fatalities from pits around the world are always shown in detailed emails. Just to let us know what could happen. I'm just wondering when and if well even here about this poor guy. 

Very sad.


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## beatle (28 February 2012)

Hi All, and yes a sad day when there is a fatality. Please note that I make no representation here with regard to RED and its responsibilities and how it should act. But I do want to make a few points, and I can confirm I have not had any discussion with anyone re this specific accident.

I don't know what happened with regard to the tragedy, and whilst Moit you are correct in what you say about how the investigation would be carried out in Australia, who has said that this won't be investigated either by RED or the authorities? 
I believe from my past discussions with GE onsite that RED places as first priority the safety of its employees and contractors, and if you recall RED has put out many commentaries in its annual reports plus in presentations, about how much emphasis RED has put on safety. I can imagine that GE in particular is very upset at present with this accident, and will be doing all possibly to investigate and rectify the vaguaries that led to the fatality. 

But for those who haven't worked on minesites, you have to recognise that such environments by their nature are not like workshops with carefully controlled environment etc. These are big areas of open space and when things go wrong they can go terribly wrong. And these things DO happen in Australian mines as well, notwithstanding all the controls and safety measures put in place. You can't put people in cotton wool in such environments, and there are certain circumstances which could result in such tragic events occurring.

I understand that RED does carry out regular safety meetings onsite in the various departments so I don't think its appropriate to start using a blame approach, especially when we don't know what the actual circumstances were in this accident. I have no doubt that RED will be investigating it and will have responsibility to report the outcome of that investigation to the authorities and that investigation may well include the authorities as well.

What is disappointing, and it was referred to be some posters, that RED tried to conceal the fatality behind a bland headline of Siana gold mine. That IMO is the bad thing to come out of this from a management perspective.


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## mrlister (28 February 2012)

Somebody died and all there is to pick on is the way the announcement on the ASX was titled? Jeez get a grip people. It most likely really was the furtherest thing from their mind!!


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## beatle (28 February 2012)

MrLister I'm disappointed if you thought my commentary tried to downplay the significance of the tragedy. I didn't have any intention to downplay that aspect whatsover. I was commenting on the other aspects of safety that should be considered by all, in any mining situation.


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## beatle (28 February 2012)

Wow, this preliminary commentary by GE of the ramp up phase for Siana has caught me by surprise. And don’t be conned by the apparent ho-hum view that the market has taken of the announcement. Whilst I am a positive spin poster on RED, this announcement has some very subtle but positive remarks embedded in it that should provide a lot of strength to the longer term positive outcome of gold production for Siana, IMO of course!

The comment “…Apart from a modest delay in the commissioning phase the project is remarkably similar in scope and outlook to the feasibility study….” is what I have been hoping for, as based on that feasibility study the project has NPV’s way above the current market cap of RED share price! That is very positive.

Additionally, the commentaries re the Siana drilling and resource estimates of that such as “…We have been recording significant intersections of gold mineralization in the latest round of drilling that are over 500 metres below surface and some of the deepest recorded to date. Whilst this mineralization is beyond the design of the open pit it gives us encouragement that the underground potential of the system is robust…” 

and “…an increase in the Mineral Resource can be expected based on the recent deep drilling results and the definition of additional gold mineralised zones in the pit outside the current Resource…” both provide very definite proof that the current reserve of 10 years mine life plus the additions to resource already defined within the US$900 ore envelopes are likely to be increased significantly once the ramp up has increased to a level to provide economic parameters for reserve estimation within Siana – it could suggest the final ore reserves for Siana being considerably above 1 million ozs of gold! This could attract the bigger gold producers starting to put a ruler over RED for takeover based on Siana alone, especially if it becomes more evident that the Siana gold system to build to a few million ozs in total.

And again the comments re Mapawa indicate that another big season of exploration is about ready to commence in coming months.

Finally the overall capital cost confirmation that there has been no major blow-out with the rectification works on the front end transfer points. This is also very positive.
I take the announcement as being very positive for some much more bullish statements of gold production in coming months and forecast earnings to follow.


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## mrlister (28 February 2012)

Love your optimism, but I didn't read it as such a great read. I read it as a fluff piece....all about nothing concrete, just maybe's. Unfortunately, I think the market agrees!! So does this mean we do or don't still get our end of month progress report?


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## PT Cruiser (28 February 2012)

Couldn't agree more - seemed like a real fluff piece conveniently submitted a day after some very sad news.


----------



## silence (28 February 2012)

Don't pay too much notice to it and reevaluate things at, say, $2-$2.10


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## fwpike (28 February 2012)

Can't say quite why but it has always been my reading  "between the lines"  that while Siana was viable, Mpawa, though not yet accurately drilled and mapped, had the potential to be the real sleeper, especially as the workings are already there and shall we say amortised across the life of Siana with Mpawa being all bonus...
No re-rating is all "straight up" but I have great hopes for Red over the next two years,.  
Having said that, it would be nice if a shareholder-friendly balance between dividends and exploration expenditure was found. Gold reserves are a factor in sp but dividends are the great driver that cannot be ignored


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## fwpike (28 February 2012)

One must give Red 5 marks for consistency. They rarely if ever meet a deadline.  Greg Edwards signs his name over the statement that a report on Siana will be issued by "month's end" and it apparently is OK if it isn't . Not rain, not Filipino bureaucracy, just not convenient it seems . 
I did not vote for the pay rise


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## beatle (29 February 2012)

Lol Fwpike, I like your last post, it helps stir the pot and yes its good to keep the managment accountable by affecting their pays, but seems they have got the ears of most of the insto's at present!

For those critics calling the latest announcement cynically as fluff, the production and profit guidance announcement is still to come, if you note that they are to give an update on Feb production as part of that announcement, its a bit hard to get it out ahead of Feb. I suggest as Fwpike mentions, you read between the lines otherwise you might not get the subtle hints that are very informative. But reading between the lines needs a greater degree of understanding of the games that are played by spin doctors!


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## fwpike (29 February 2012)

I'm afraid I did not see any "update on February production" promised as such Beatle, I noted that we would receive "production guidance including estimated cash flows and cash costs at month's end" signed Greg Edwards
If by "month's end" he meant "early March then there is an easy way to express that. One uses the words "early March". 
These guys have a very casual attitude to retail investors, (who of course are only getting what their relative apathy deserves.)


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## mrlister (29 February 2012)

40 minutes into trading and its a ghost town.


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## Starcraftmazter (29 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> 40 minutes into trading and its a ghost town.




The hell 

In all my less than one year's of trading, never seen anything like this.


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## Boggo (29 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> The hell
> 
> In all my less than one year's of trading, never seen anything like this.




That's what happens when you have a 20 cent speccy trying to impersonate a $2 stock while it is being propped up by crystal ball news


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## Starcraftmazter (29 February 2012)

So bizzaire though, now more than 2 hours after market open and still not a single trade 

Does this indicate that all (or most) of the previous week's buying has been by instos, and they're now finished?


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## Chasero (29 February 2012)

Just means there is a lack of interest in sellers and buyers. Instos or retail holders or traders who knows.

One or 2 people wantign to sell at 2.25.

Some buyers in at 2.23 and 2.22 etc. Not much interest today for RED it seems.

RED sp ain't fun when it is near it's 12 year highs..

Trading range has been mostly $1.20-$2.30 no? Will take a nice announcement to bring it over $2.40 imo.


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## mrlister (29 February 2012)

just hope it holds while we are waiting for this announcement!!


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## beatle (29 February 2012)

Everyone knows that there is an announcement around the corner and those that want to hold are holding, those that are traders probably are holding off.

Really Boggo you need to move on IMO. Its NOT a 20 cent speccy! Its got a market cap of close to $300 million! (IF you split BHP into enough shares it would also be what you term a 20 cents speccy! Absolute garbage).


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## mrlister (29 February 2012)

im holding on, but my nerves are being tested!!


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## jancha (29 February 2012)

beatle said:


> Everyone knows that there is an announcement around the corner and those that want to hold are holding, those that are traders probably are holding off.
> 
> Really Boggo you need to move on IMO. Its NOT a 20 cent speccy! Its got a market cap of close to $300 million! (IF you split BHP into enough shares it would also be what you term a 20 cents speccy! Absolute garbage).




Have to agree on this with you Beatle. Just waiting on announcement. At least there's no leaks within RED management as to how it will pan out. 
Boggo me thinks RED being in production is not so much as a specy as other explorers out there. Stirring the pot my friend?


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## mrlister (29 February 2012)

where are the words that they are actually in production? its all about ramping up, and modifying this and that...but never have i seen that they are actually in production, apart from that one 'first gold' announcement.


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## jancha (29 February 2012)

mrlister said:


> where are the words that they are actually in production? its all about ramping up, and modifying this and that...but never have i seen that they are actually in production, apart from that one 'first gold' announcement.




What would you classify RED as a Explorer or Producer?


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## Boggo (29 February 2012)

jancha said:


> What would you classify RED as a Explorer or Producer?




Unless they are lying to the ASX they are an explorer !


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## mrlister (29 February 2012)

They are both. What was the most recent ASX announcement heading?


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## jancha (29 February 2012)

Boggo said:


> Unless they are lying to the ASX they are an explorer !




For how long do you think that will remain? What have they got a piece of dirt or a plant producing gold and silver?


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## Wa11y (29 February 2012)

jancha said:


> For how long do you think that will remain? What have they got a piece of dirt or a plant producing gold and silver?




No point arguing this guys. Can see Boggo's point though, they haven't fully demonstrated they are in production yet - still a speculative buy. Look at that, I just entered the argument.


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## jancha (1 March 2012)

Well i hope for me own sake & others that most investors are seeing RED the same way as good ol Boggo & co as it only means that when the next announcement does comes out regarding production the sp will sky rocket.


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## mrlister (1 March 2012)

Report is out. Is it good or bad news? I have no idea. Anyone?


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## Chasero (1 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> Report is out. Is it good or bad news? I have no idea. Anyone?




We need beatle's expert advice 

I wonder how gold stocks will fare today though.. gold dropped 5% overnight


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## tech/a (1 March 2012)

*We need beatle's expert advice *

For a few months now I used to read copious pages of stuff waiting patiently for each new announcement so I would see all this rhetoric come into play and get completely overwhelmed by the speed this stock flew into the un charted blue.

But 
Announcement after announcement opinion after opinion dissection after dissection this wonder of modern trading has still ranged from 1.40 to 2.30.
Despite reams of positive spin.

Underwhelming comes to mind
Boredom another.
Waste of funds another.
Opportunity cost another.

In the words of the great
Fundamentalist Ducati 
Carry on.

Sorry

In MY OPINION

others may differ--naturally.


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## mrlister (1 March 2012)

boring yes, hardly a waste of funds seeing as i bought in at 1.62 just over a month ago!


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## Chasero (1 March 2012)

Beatle has a wealth of knowledge regarding the stock.

Different views are always appreciated..

No response to announcements makes for a very boring thread. The more spruiking and T/A and bagging gives for a more interesting analysis of the stock


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## mrlister (1 March 2012)

price of gold dropping by 5% couldn't have come at a worse time!!


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## beatle (1 March 2012)

PRODUCTION GUIDANCE REPORT OUT TODAY!

I refer to my previous forecasts (posted 19th Feb) for the period Feb 2012 --> June 2013. I'm HAPPY to admit that I was WRONG!!! Both for gold produced as well as cost of production.

In fact according to RED management Siana should produce about 2,500 ozs MORE than my estimate for current year, at an operating cost $100/oz LESS than my expectation. That suggests to me RED profits in current year will be appreciably ABOVE my estimate of $18 million!!!

And in the following year RED believe Siana will produce 75,000 ozs, 20,500 ozs IN EXCESS of my forecast. At a considerably reduced operating cost, of $325/oz the profit margin is considerably above my expectations and should result in a considerably HIGHER profit to my previous estimate of $62 million.

MY ERRORS indicate that once the gold price stabilises then RED should be on considerably higher CPS and lower PE than I could ever have imagined, thus its current share price will not last for long IMO.

Of course with the gold price dropping appreciably last night it will have a negative impact on RED along with all other gold producers, however, RED has confirmed that Siana will be a highly profitable mining operation, with considerable reserves of gold that are obtainable at comparatively low operating costs! This will improve RED's share price performance compared to many other middle tier gold producers and should entice gold investors to switch from other less profitable gold companies. Just remember that Siana is a TEN year, low cost gold producer!

This is likely to sway North American fund managers into RED if they haven't already got in.  AND I understand that RED management are on their way to North America now!!!

Yes its unfortunate that the gold price has fallen, but that is also offset somewhat by the exchange rate, so although there could be a very short term negative impact, the medium term outlook for RED is very very positive IMO. You can call that positive spin if you want, but its not spin in my view at all!


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## jancha (1 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> price of gold dropping by 5% couldn't have come at a worse time!!




Depends if you want to buy in at a cheap price. RED is one of the few gold stocks in positive territory today so gold just has to rebound some what and RED should get over that hurdle of $2.30. The glass is half full.


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## beatle (1 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Depends if you want to buy in at a cheap price. RED is one of the few gold stocks in positive territory today so gold just has to rebound some what and RED should get over that hurdle of $2.30. The glass is half full.




Hi Jancha, I'm not sure if the glass is half full, I think its been on empty for a long while, and RED is just about starting to fill it up, lol!

ITs looking very good for RED now, not just because its share price has moved into positive territory, but the fact that the long term outlook for RED is very positive. Your point about getting cheap stock is absolutely spot on IMO, I have no doubt that RED will break that resistance around current levels of $2.30 - $2.35.

Subject to the outlook of gold price going forward we are looking at a profit of $20 million for current 2011/2112 year and in EXCESS of $90 million for next financial year! RED simply can't stay at this low price IMO.


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## fastbuck1 (1 March 2012)

beatle said:


> Hi Jancha, I'm not sure if the glass is half full, I think its been on empty for a long while, and RED is just about starting to fill it up, lol!
> 
> ITs looking very good for RED now, not just because its share price has moved into positive territory, but the fact that the long term outlook for RED is very positive. Your point about getting cheap stock is absolutely spot on IMO, I have no doubt that RED will break that resistance around current levels of $2.30 - $2.35.
> 
> Subject to the outlook of gold price going forward we are looking at a profit of $20 million for current 2011/2112 year and in EXCESS of $90 million for next financial year! RED simply can't stay at this low price IMO.




Beatle with the numbers now out what is the true value of red with a 90 mil profit for the next fin year, chears


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## beatle (1 March 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> Beatle with the numbers now out what is the true value of red with a 90 mil profit for the next fin year, chears




Hi Fastbuck, its great to see you keeping in touch. 

With regards to the valuation of RED now there are the obvious questions:
1. What is the forecast now for the gold price. Seems that overnight the market has been shaken somewhat so most won't want to make any immediate judgements which way gold is headed.
2. What is RED going to do in the short term with respect to its already increased resource of +27% to contained gold as announced last year. AND further GE's veiled comments of the other day that suggest the RESOURCE may well be increased again from the recent deeper drilling around Siana - as has been detailed for a couple of holes with good intersections of high grade gold.

And how to value RED, via P/E or NPV, based on those levels.

I would prefer to hold off changing my model until RED comes out with some more definitive statements re Revised Ore Reserves. But suffice to say its likely that RED could get valuations from various brokers in the range of:
$3.50 - $5.00 quite easily if they accept RED's indicated medium term forecast operating cost of $325/oz. That is way below the feasibility study estimate of US$351/oz. I am really impressed with RED being prepared to quote that as guidance! (They are a conservative group as you will know yourself). 

On current price we are talking next years PE around 3 that simply won't happen if it pans out that way. It points to a RED share price actually higher than $4.00 easily.


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## mgm1a (1 March 2012)

regarding takeup of shares by Nth America - last time i checked *no ADRs* with Bank of Mellon had been traded - remember it being a big deal in many earlier anns.


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## mrlister (2 March 2012)

Gold price slightly up overnight as with US share market. Hopefully sees RED push through the 2.4 barrier


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## reeftip (2 March 2012)

Hi Beatle
Do you know if RED hedges its future gold sales?


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## beatle (2 March 2012)

reeftip said:


> Hi Beatle
> Do you know if RED hedges its future gold sales?




Hi Reeftip and All RED observers. 

Good to see that the gold price has now stablised (at least for the time being!). RED has no forward sales at all at this time, and the subject has been discussed by the directors on various occasions, with the concensus being that they are not going to put in place forward selling in the foreseeable future. But my understanding (and I am not intimately aware of the position) is that when they make a decision to go to the lower cutoff grade ore reserve which could increase total economic gold inventory by around 25% (ie the US$900/oz ore outlines) they may consider a smallish program of puts that would provide safety in the event that the gold price slid beyond about US$1,200 and of course only if they can get the puts at a cheap price (ie when volatility in gold price is low thus the beta is low for the put). But this is not agreed, its just a point of discussion for the board's consideration. And I understand that the board is very conscious to keep the company as an investment for gold investors wanting an exposure to the gold price - as a shareholder I would prefer they did have a forward selling program in place but seems instos want the exposure to the gold price movement.

Mgm1a, this is where my alzheimers steps in, but I do recall asking CJ about that ADR facility, and from my recollections I think he said that it was put in place thinking it would facilitate trading but since that time they have not followed it up. Perhaps that might have not been pursued due to the concentration on more pressing matters in recent months (I asked him about this at the time of the AGM).

There is no doubt in my mind that RED suffered like all gold shares yesterday due to the gold price, and thus whilst we are close to historic highs, the positive news put out by RED can only mean that there is one way for RED to go in the short term (unless gold drops further appreciably!) and that is up! Yesterday, whilst the share price performed ok under the circumstances, it certainly hasn't moved anywhere near where it can according to the production guidelines.

AND I would imagine that the RED roadshow presentations in North America are due to commence in earnest soon, thus there is likely to be much more buying from those instos once they realise the out-performance and low cost that is now expected! Thus my view is that this could be the last chance to get RED at a cheap price - of course I have been saying that for maybe a year now, but now its different, RED has confirmed its producing gold, at low cost, and will be doing so for around 10 or more years! And production started only 1 month ago so the transformation is only beginning, so why wait now for what is likely to be a capital growth story from here on.

AND whilst traders seem to bank on RED range trading, thus are lining up to get out around $2.35, once that resistance level is broken then I suggest traders will not have that opportunity any more. That resistance level then becomes a support level (according to the TA's I have read, lol!).

Go RED UP UP and AWAY into the Blue Yonder...


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## beatle (2 March 2012)

It seems to me RED is about to lift off, and now we have this interesting tussle between various traders too:

Those that range trade, and those that have been waiting on the side for a break through that $2.35 level. Those trend following traders surely will now start to get on board!

But fundamentally I can't see why RED won't move towards $3.00 from here on! IMO of course (yes its positive spin, but its based on cash flow analysis and PEs that could take it beyond $5.00 in the next few months!).


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## reeftip (2 March 2012)

Many thanks for your insightful comments Beatle.

I am now going to file RED away  in the bottom draw and just sit back and enjoy the ride.

If the market returns to ‘normal’, I am calculating your $4 SP forecast to be very conservative after next year’s earnings are out.


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## reeftip (2 March 2012)

Hmmm
Just noticed RED is be added to the ASX 300 

Now that might stir a bit of interest


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## beatle (2 March 2012)

reeftip said:


> Hmmm
> Just noticed RED is be added to the ASX 300
> 
> Now that might stir a bit of interest




Hi Reeftip, its an interesting point, but not sure how many funds groups follow the ASX300 for balancing portfolios (have you or anyone else got any idea?), I guess we will see what effect it takes on Mar 16.  

I think the more exciting time will be when RED is added to the ASX200 and that should follow within the next 2 quarters as RED increases its market cap (its at $300 million on todays share price) and trading liquidity surely won't be an issue as we are regularly getting plus/minus $1.0 million worth of shares traded per day. 

Trading has slowed at the current resistance level now but once breached it could get another step up quickly. If its not gone today it might have to wait till Tues after the first North American groups start to consider putting in an investment. Whatever, IMO it WILL breached and its just a matter of which day it happens.


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## tech/a (2 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> I have a forward sell stop in place on my trade.
> 
> Here is some analysis for those who wish to have something to look for technically in RED going forward.
> 
> ...




Lots of excited investors planning early retirement

*SO HERE WE ARE*----at resistance.

*Click link above to expand*
Time to show your stuff RED!
Ill get interested with a clear thrust above resistance---if not---its still a wannabe!


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## Boggo (2 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Ill get interested with a clear thrust above resistance---if not---its still a wannabe!




Watching and waiting tech/a, this is going to be a 'hit and run' stock for a while yet judging by the current lack of interest.

Potential target/resistance areas below whenever it does break out, at the moment I am 50/50 as to whether it will break out or retrace back to just over $2.00.

(click to expand)


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## fastbuck1 (3 March 2012)

there must be plenty of takeover eyes now on red, red will close on produce a third of its current market capp in 12 months, the current sp is crazy.....


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## beatle (5 March 2012)

Hi All RED followers and great to see you on ASF again Fastbuck!

Your comment re a takeover of RED is always an interesting topic for me, and yes at the current ridiculous price its an absolute steal. It surely is an ideal fit for a company  like MML just on the basis of Siana, esp since IMO whilst not wanting to denigrate MML but on a share for share basis its price seems very much over-priced whereas RED is heavily discounted. And as it seems that MML will never consider such a deal due to past grievances between the two groups is crazy!

BUT as news finally filters out, month by month, or quartely by quarterly, then RED share price won't stay at this level forever! Thus that opportunity by others to steal RED simply will disappear. But the interesting thing is that the more recent news that Siana is now proving to be a far greater resource than previously thought (ie now potentially far greater potential than 1  million ounces) could have the bigger gold producers start to consider RED. And with Mapawa exploration a couple of months away then certainly this should open the door to many bigger groups who are more attracted to companies having the potential for 5 million+ ounces, and my view is that Mapawa and the other porphyry targets on the two MPSA's that RED holds should open that door.

And from a shareholders point of view I would love to see a takeover attempted, it could push RED up far sooner to achieve that much-awaited re-rating that I've been predictiing for a long while.

This week possibly will start slowly based on the close last week, but should hot up once a few more North American instos and funds become aware of RED and what is happening at Siana. I get the feeling that Matthews is currently in the process of dumping its final shares and this could provide the opportunity for some other funds groups getting set at a cheaper price than ever could be imagined! 

Even though RED could open and move slightly lower at the start, I certainly wouldn't be considering selling a single share just to buy back cheaper. With the knowledge that RED is doing a roadshow in North America at the moment, its anyones guess at to which day it could take off and move upside of the resistance level. So do so at your own possible peril, yes you might make a few or so cents, but to sacrifice a huge jump up is certainly not something I would want to contemplate.


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## beatle (6 March 2012)

Whilst RED's profitability is now destined to be governed by the price of gold its worthwhile to consider whether the price of gold, in aussie dollars, has stabilised since  the day it fell off a cliff last week, on the very same day that RED put out the most bullish of Guidance estimates that I could have possibly imagined. 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=1W

Clearly in Aussie dollar terms the gold price has stabilised, even if the US$gold price has shifted around a bit more. The A$ exchange rate does help to soften the impact of any drop if you look at that chart.

With the price of gold, now stabilised around A$1,600 and the fact that in this current financial year, RED will derive a net margin on operating costs of around A$1.120/oz. with RED estimating it will produce 18,000 ozs for this financial year. Furthermore, RED gets its first 5 years production tax-free in the Philippines - few gold producers will be enjoying that set of circumstances. This alone makes RED a standout investment IMO.

Then in the following 2012/2013 financial year, RED estimates to produce 75,000 ozs of gold, at a lower cost, of less than $325/oz. The profit on this is staggering and should definitely lead to a broader re-rating of its share price. My view is that RED's share price chart could easily replicate that of RRL's from now on, but based on a far lower market capitalisation, as news filters out of its increasing production performance. It would be good if RED could increase its effort in promotion as well ....


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## tech/a (6 March 2012)

Traders trading RED.

Resistance holding firm.

Critical point 1 at $2.17
Critical point 2 at $2.00

Fall below here and it wont be pretty.

But hey great opportunity for those who 
average down or wish to add to a position.

So Will continue to watch the saga unfold.
Have you ever noticed that price will do whatever it wants to 
do regardless of announcements or opinion!
In other words.

*Supply and demand is affected by supply and demand!*

Now isnt that easier?


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## mrlister (7 March 2012)

Let's hope today isn't the carnage that's it's shaping up to be


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## tech/a (7 March 2012)

*Hope* is always a good one to employ in profitable trading.


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## mrlister (7 March 2012)

Hope is what dies last!!


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## beatle (7 March 2012)

There is no doubting that almost all if not all gold stocks will drop today on the US$ gold price, but as usually happens due to the exchange rate also coming off the true impact on valuations and profitability for aussie gold stocks is not as severe as we will probably see in the markets today, the perverse way that investors act to volatility I guess.

It will probably be a good chance to buy RED on the drop IMO. But who knows, North American instos might act today to buy it even higher, its an interesting time for RED!

Of course everyone talks their own book to benefit personally, but I find it ironic that Tech/a tends to get on the RED thread when something negative is looming, lol! Simple as that.


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## dave1234 (7 March 2012)

Beatle, I find your info useful but sometimes your comments regarding the SP seem a distant reality. The SP hasn't just dropped today, its been in decline for a few days so how is the overnight news the catalyst?


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## tech/a (7 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> Hope is what dies last!!




Unfortunately so.
In a trading analogy there isn't anything left when hope dies.
The loss is often far worse than it could have been reduced to.

Perhaps I'm a minority but I think it better to be wrong about an exit thats too early (with a re entry strategy in place) than wrong too late. (When the hit hurts)

My own emotions have an equity curve.
I tend to keep them rising!

There is *NO PLACE *for hope in profitable trading.


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## tech/a (7 March 2012)

So whos taking advantage of these 
arguably--by me at least---bargain prices?
Anyone bought higher than todays price and averaging down.
Anyone buying more on the pull back?
Who thinks that this is a great place to buy?

Just interested in the thinking---beatle I wont see any reply by you unless someone quotes you.---but youll see these prices as an absolute steal I know that.

Interested in those who are not in love with their holding.---rational traders.


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## mardo (7 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> So whos taking advantage of these
> arguably--by me at least---bargain prices?
> Anyone bought higher than todays price and averaging down.
> Anyone buying more on the pull back?
> ...




HI Tech/a ,I'm a net buyer today at these prices,but i am in for the longer term benefit also.I watch your thoughts  and agree there is probability pullback to $2.00 and I  am prepared to ride with that maybe a bit more.(ps. I did sell quite a few at $2.34 so this is a re-entry) Cheers!


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## Credfield (7 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> So whos taking advantage of these
> arguably--by me at least---bargain prices?
> Anyone bought higher than todays price and averaging down.
> Anyone buying more on the pull back?
> ...





Wow childish much?

_I don't agree with a certain poster's views so I'm letting everyone know (in a roundabout sort of way) I have him on my ignore list_ 

Like many people here I find both sides of the argument interesting.

So IL'ing someone just seems like an extreme response to someone that's getting under your skin?


----------



## tech/a (7 March 2012)

Credfield said:


> Wow childish much?
> 
> _I don't agree with a certain poster's views so I'm letting everyone know (in a roundabout sort of way) I have him on my ignore list_
> 
> ...




Do you think???'


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## tech/a (8 March 2012)

Litmus test today.
Is there demand?
A sharp reversal on volume will confirm it.
Poor volume with less than 50% of yesterdays
range covered on close will be dismal.

here's *HOPING*


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## Wa11y (8 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Litmus test today.
> Is there demand?
> A sharp reversal on volume will confirm it.
> Poor volume with less than 50% of yesterdays
> ...




Tech - there's probably no need for the constant negative comments on others' posts. You've referred to the 'hope' post several times now. Enough. It isn't constructive.


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## tech/a (8 March 2012)

Wa11y said:


> Tech - there's probably no need for the constant negative comments on others' posts. You've referred to the 'hope' post several times now. Enough. It isn't constructive.




Look

Im RAMMING home the point.
If one newb understands the point
and I cease to see this word used
in the context of forward expectations
then its been worth highlighting.

The next one is "GOOD LUCK" to all those holding ---RED or XYZ corp.

Bloody hell if you need luck then what on earth are you doing trading.
I understand that most here trade less than $5k portfolio's so its not economy
changing trading---but eventually when you start trading serious money and instead of $1000 in a position you have $100,000 you'll know what I mean.
Sure luck happens but---man its lame.

Hope and Luck-----probably the most common indicators used in the market.

Hmm I note a 4c gap in 12000 stocks traded.--hardly convincing.


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## mrlister (8 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Look
> 
> Im RAMMING home the point.
> If one newb understands the point
> ...




tech, i admire your technical knowledge...but you have the personality of a gnat!!


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## tech/a (8 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> tech, i admire your technical knowledge...but you have the personality of a gnat!!




Thanks Ill take that as a compliment.

I dont post to make friends.
I post with the hard facts of reality.
Your future depends on it. If you take it seriously.
If people wish to disguard the messege embedded
fine--but a few will understand and move forward.

Question
Your in a plane.
The pilot chirps up and says.
" Morning we are at 30000 feet
That dive we are in---Wish me luck Ive read the manual I reckon
Ive got a handle on this all I can say is I hope I have
I guess we will know at the other end"

OR

"Im pretty obnoxious to some
and we are at 30000 feet ---that dive
we just had---Ive flown this baby for 1000s
of hrs I know exactly how to keep you safe"

Dont know about you but Ill go with MR Obnoxiuos.


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## Credfield (8 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Do you think???'




Like I said, childish.

Insightful post there bud.

I personally find your "technical knowledge" as insightful as that post.

When this stock goes down, "hey guys I was right!"
When this stock goes up, "volume test, range, resistance blah blah blah"

If hope and wishful thinking has no place in trading, you MUST be a multi millionaire by now.
I mean, it's all there technically isn't it? And technically, if you're right all the time then you should be rolling in the cash.


----------



## Robbo (8 March 2012)

Credfield said:


> ...you MUST be a multi millionaire by now.
> I mean, it's all there technically isn't it? And technically, if you're right all the time then you should be rolling in the cash.




I have no doubt he is both a multimillionaire and rolling in the cash.


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## jah008 (8 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> tech, i admire your technical knowledge...but you have the personality of a gnat!!






Wa11y said:


> Tech - there's probably no need for the constant negative comments on others' posts. You've referred to the 'hope' post several times now. Enough. It isn't constructive.






Credfield said:


> Wow childish much?
> 
> _I don't agree with a certain poster's views so I'm letting everyone know (in a roundabout sort of way) I have him on my ignore list_
> 
> ...






Credfield said:


> Like I said, childish.
> 
> Insightful post there bud.
> 
> ...




Wow. You guys should wake up to yourselves and actually listen to what he says, you might actually learn something and make a lot of money. I have. I have made over 200% in the past 3 months trading from what I've learnt from tech/a's threads and posts.

No head in the sky. No "this stock is worth $3-$5". No BS. No hoping. No luck. Straight up trading on facts, figures and charts.

Unless you yourselves have something to contribute to the conversation. Stay quiet.


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## Credfield (8 March 2012)

Robbo said:


> I have no doubt he is.




Then he should be sailing the harbours of Monaco on his multi million dollar yacht.

Instead, he's here arguing with a bunch of "newbs" trying to prove how smart and technically sound he is albeit with grammatical errors along the way.


----------



## jah008 (8 March 2012)

Credfield said:


> Then he should be sailing the harbours of Monaco on his multi million dollar yacht.
> 
> Instead, he's here arguing with a bunch of "newbs" trying to prove how smart and technically sound he is albeit with grammatical errors along the way.




So you're upset because he's trying to help you make money??


----------



## Credfield (8 March 2012)

jah008 said:


> Wow. You guys should wake up to yourselves and actually listen to what he says, you might actually learn something and make a lot of money. I have. I have made over 200% in the past 3 months trading from what I've learnt from tech/a's threads and posts.
> 
> No head in the sky. No "this stock is worth $3-$5". No BS. No hoping. No luck. Straight up trading on facts, figures and charts.
> 
> Unless you yourselves have something to contribute to the conversation. Stay quiet.




Maybe you should take your own advice?

"omgz i made 200% from tech" is hardly conversation worthy.


----------



## Credfield (8 March 2012)

jah008 said:


> So you're upset because he's trying to help you make money??




No, but his condescending and obnoxious attitude makes me roll my eyes.

And besides, I highly doubt he's that kind hearted of a person that he would take the time to help thousands of strangers on an internet forum.


----------



## mrlister (8 March 2012)

jah008 said:


> Wow. You guys should wake up to yourselves and actually listen to what he says, you might actually learn something and make a lot of money. I have. I have made over 200% in the past 3 months trading from what I've learnt from tech/a's threads and posts.
> 
> No head in the sky. No "this stock is worth $3-$5". No BS. No hoping. No luck. Straight up trading on facts, figures and charts.
> 
> Unless you yourselves have something to contribute to the conversation. Stay quiet.




there is no doubt that people listen what he/she says. it has helpeed me a lot too. its more the arrogance and belittling of people that is the problem.

the original comment of 'heres to hoping.....etc' was a social comment, knowing it was going to crash, but 'hoping' it didn't go too far. Any person with remotely normal social skills would see it as that and not bother to comment further.


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## jah008 (8 March 2012)

Credfield said:


> No, but his condescending and obnoxious attitude makes me roll my eyes.
> 
> And besides, I highly doubt he's that kind hearted of a person that he would take the time to help thousands of strangers on an internet forum.






mrlister said:


> there is no doubt that people listen what he/she says. it has helpeed me a lot too. its more the arrogance and belittling of people that is the problem.




So ignore it boys. Its just business. Not personal. No room for emotion when you're dealing with your money anyway.


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## Joe Blow (8 March 2012)

This thread is going way off topic.

The topic of discussion here is RED, not tech/a or any other thread participant.

It doesn't matter if you're an investor, a trader or just an interested onlooker, everyone has the right to post their thoughts or analysis without being personally attacked for it. Whether someone is bullish or bearish is irrelevant as long as they back up their point of view with some reasons that have their basis in facts or their own analysis (TA or FA).

So lets get this thread back on topic and start discussing RED again!


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## tech/a (8 March 2012)

Credfield said:


> Then he should be sailing the harbours of Monaco on his multi million dollar yacht.
> 
> Instead, he's here arguing with a bunch of "newbs" trying to prove how smart and technically sound he is albeit with *grammatical errors along the way*.




As you can see I was over there just 10 mths ago


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22709

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22194&page=10

Mainly South of France St Moritz/Cannes/Antibes/MonteCarlo. but spent sometime in Spain/Paris and London. No Yacht not even a tinny---I get violently sea sick--even in a Ski boat!

*Even a Dumbass can enjoy life.*

Back on  *RED*Demand is terrible this morning very light volume.


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## mr. jeff (8 March 2012)

With any luck I'm hoping to see RED have another run at 2.35 assuming that it can (and fingers crossed) muster enough strength to bounce, and fundamentally it should, off the 2.10 level which hopefully offers enough resistance.





Otherwise that 2.00 level is it.

Not very interesting, still weak.

Good luck.


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## mrlister (8 March 2012)

i think it would be very LUCKY to keep off the 2.00 level now.


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## jancha (8 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Litmus test today.
> Is there demand?
> A sharp reversal on volume will confirm it.
> Poor volume with less than 50% of yesterdays
> ...



Tech. What do you mean if the close in volume of less than 50% will be dismal for RED?
Could it be that the market is at a stand still until RED comes out with further announcements? Hence no volume and small trades.
I can see that you dont trade on news or fundamentals but only on what the chart is telling you and noted you have been correct at getting out at $2.30 on your last trade.
Good if you can read into the charts as you do but for those of us that cant we have to rely on fundamentals.
 It may take awhile but if the POG maintains its current value my monies on RED to steadily rise over the next 6mths.
But having said if i could trade as you and read into the charts correctly most of the time i'd be doing the same as you so it's been interesting to read your views to do with RED alone.
Who knows i might get the hang of reading charts correctly one day and trade as you do.


----------



## tech/a (8 March 2012)

> *Poor volume *with less than *50% of yesterdays
> range* covered on close will be dismal.





We should always be looking for *Effort or Lack of effort*.

Yesterday we saw effort from Sellers with supply chasing price down 12c
With today if there was effort from buyers you'd expect that lying in waiting yesterday these "potential" buyers would be thinking that RED is cheap NOW--today.

They'd Jump at $2.13--well from what I saw a couple jumped at it--but thats all.
Sellers held back to see if they could get a higher price.

If we don't see a gain of 7c or more on close then there is lack of effort from Buyers.
Lack of demand doesn't sit well for a gaining price.

And if you look at the days chart buyers and sellers are indeed foxing with price.
Happens all the time Support--Resistance.

*SPECIFICALLY ON RED.*

I see this as a "Potential" stock. Driven in price by its potential.
Fundamental potential is posted on this thread most days.
Announcements confirming---or disappointing those with such expectations of potential abound in a month.
Its not driven by profit but by the promise of profit.
In fact that promise grows and grows with each dissection of "Potential".

I only know of one way to guage what the market is thinking re this or any stock.
It reads like a book. While the plot may remain the same the character is still the same
its potential not profit and as such.


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## jancha (8 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> We should always be looking for *Effort or Lack of effort*.
> 
> Yesterday we saw effort from Sellers with supply chasing price down 12c
> With today if there was effort from buyers you'd expect that lying in waiting yesterday these "potential" buyers would be thinking that RED is cheap NOW--today.
> ...




Interesting stuff Tech. So going by the close today and what you have said RED should'nt be looking too good overall atm with volume of 350,000 (550,000 yesterday) and up only 5c. Would you say tomorrow would down day or hang around where it is at present till volume and demand comes back into it?


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## beatle (8 March 2012)

Hi ALL RED followers, and wow I'm away for a day from posting and seems its run wild with differing views (and personalities!!!) etc.

And when you sit back and observe the various posters, there are basically 2 camps. The traders and the investors. Each with a completely different focus, although some seem to be turnover at an opportune time (Mardo for one by the sound of his last post). And as long as both groups make some money who cares actually.

Tech/a has confirmed that RED is a great trading company due to its "perfect technical behaviour" (or words to that effect), on the other hand I for one consider it to be a greatly discounted company based on its valuations and prospective PE for the year coming (or as Tech/a puts it, "potential). Any stock market analyst will say that the market is forward looking, at the "potential" earnings, so that is absolutely essential for any investor seeking a return from forecast future earnings. And RED is now at the beginning of its gold production stage, for at least 10 years based on reserves, thus its got a great longer term outlook.

I don't see there being any reason for us all to be squabbling, actually we all seem to agree its a great stock to trade/invest in, the big conjecture is when to get in or when to get out etc. And the fact that it has been range trading for a long time then I can't see problem with those investors who decide to switch to trading it at or close to its historic highs, around $2.35 so Mardo your strategy clearly has worked.

I am a frustrated longer term investor, I admit to that, but I won't be switching over for any opportunistic shorter term gains,  I want to maximise my returns, on a post tax basis, and since I am confident that it will provide a far great return in the medium to longer term I don't dare trade any shares, notwithstanding that even at the current price I stand to gain considerably. (On an annual basis that overall return of course is not so startling, but since I can't get a return on other investments I am happy to hold for the longer term).

Good luck to all traders/investors, but please don't assume that because its been range bound to date that's where it will stay. IT WILL definitely break on the upside some time, within the next weeks/months IMO, and you can remind me of that comment in coming weeks for sure. AND you will get a much better annualised return if you buy and hold from now than myself due to you not holding for so many years to date.

And by the way, I don't have any worries about anyone ignoring me or having a go at me, I am an old man now and have been investing for more than 40 years, so I am not concerned by all the garbage that gets slung! 

I remain faithfully (and frustratedly too) a RED shareholder, 
Beatle (lol).


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## tech/a (8 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Interesting stuff Tech. So going by the close today and what you have said RED should'nt be looking too good overall atm with volume of 350,000 (550,000 yesterday) and up only 5c. Would you say tomorrow would down day or hang around where it is at present till volume and demand comes back into it?




There is a possible long trade with very little upside($2.35 ish) using the pivot low as a stop (Likely to come first).
Not one Im interested in---as a trader.Me Ill wait and see.

*CLICK TO EXPAND*


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## tech/a (9 March 2012)

Very weak.

This really is traded by the minnows.

Course of trades.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/stock-trades?S=RED&E=ASX

When your biggest trade is a few 1000 nothing much is going to happen.


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## mrlister (9 March 2012)

Agree. Very poor day considering the market trend.


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## jancha (9 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Very weak.
> 
> This really is traded by the minnows.
> 
> ...




Tech. Your right nothing much is happening with RED tho volume in trading slightly increased towards the end of day.
 So with REDs low volume and sp much the same as opening would you say it be a bit tricky in accessing which way the sp could head from here at this stage?  
I look at stoxline as a tool sometimes to confirm a buy or a sell with the fundamentals of a company that i like. Currently they're showing RED as a neutral buy.


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## tech/a (9 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Tech. Your right nothing much is happening with RED tho volume in trading slightly increased towards the end of day.
> So with REDs low volume and sp much the same as opening would you say it be a bit tricky in accessing which way the sp could head from here at this stage?
> I look at stoxline as a tool sometimes to confirm a buy or a sell with the fundamentals of a company that i like. Currently they're showing RED as a neutral buy.




$2.35 is looking pretty remote.
I favor drifting away to below $2
at this point.
There is no interest from big players from what I can see in
course of trades.

At least when it was a 20c stock youd get the punters plunging it
and some volatility.
Punters are gone $2 is too expensive.


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## mrlister (9 March 2012)

i think that it has been piggybacking the market rise, however any negative news out of Asia, US or Europe and it will fall like a sack of spuds!!


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## jancha (9 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> $2.35 is looking pretty remote.
> I favor drifting away to below $2
> at this point.
> There is no interest from big players from what I can see in
> ...




Ok interesting analysis Tech. Lets see if you're correct even tho i hope your wrong.
Oops there's that word hope again. lol
No interest will drive the price down and thats where good management needs to come into play. (unless their just worried about their own pockets) If RED management continues to play low key in informing the market i'd agree with you but knowing my luck the moment i'd sell some announcement would come out and drive the price up.
Having said that tho RED to me in the long term will rise on the strength of their production output. Market could be waiting on positive results with RED being in it's infant stage of producing and needing something more concrete in order for it to respond.


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## tech/a (9 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Ok interesting analysis Tech. Lets see if you're correct even tho i hope your wrong.
> Oops there's that word hope again. lol
> No interest will drive the price down and thats where good management needs to come into play. (unless their just worried about their own pockets) If RED management continues to play low key in informing the market i'd agree with you but knowing my luck the moment i'd sell some announcement would come out and drive the price up.
> Having said that tho RED to me in the long term will rise on the strength of their production output. Market could be waiting on positive results with RED being in it's infant stage of producing and needing something more concrete in order for it to respond.




Until *real* money enters this stock
It won't go anywhere.
The $2 price tag on a penny is a concern.
I think. It's not being traded like a decent  $ 2 stock.
Very toppy.


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## mrlister (9 March 2012)

There really isn't any more news until the quarterly, so don't see what could be done by management. Last production report should have sparked more interest but didn't. I tend to agree with tech here. Only one way for a while.


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## jancha (9 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Until *real* money enters this stock
> It won't go anywhere.
> The $2 price tag on a penny is a concern.
> I think. It's not being traded like a decent  $ 2 stock.
> Very toppy.




Tech it's not a penny stock anymore and you'll have to put into perspective sooner or later.
The reason why it's $2 is the same as with plenty of other stocks consolidating and for a good reason.
 Maybe this not good for a daytrader as yourself dealing with penny stocks such as PEN and i can see your point with the punters dropping off due to the $2 price tag.
As you said it's a story unfolding and in the end as RED progresses so will the interest and rise in the sp. My thoughts


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## Chasero (9 March 2012)

Is it just me or do a lot of shares hit a brick wall once the 300m market cap is reached?!

I am expecting consolidation as well, pretty boring. (before next move up)


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## tech/a (9 March 2012)

jancha said:


> *Tech it's not a penny stock anymore and you'll have to put into perspective sooner or later.*
> The reason why it's $2 is the same as with plenty of other stocks consolidating and for a good reason.
> Maybe this not good for a daytrader as yourself dealing with penny stocks such as PEN and i can see your point with the punters dropping off due to the $2 price tag.
> As you said it's a story unfolding and in the end as RED progresses so will the interest and rise in the sp. My thoughts





Well I dont know so much.
*RED*
There were 1000 trades today with $1.3 million traded
Average $1300 a trade

*PEN*
Had 37 trades with $237000 turn over at an Average of $6000 a trade.
*MAD*
Had 286 trades with a T/O of $1.275 million 
or $4500 average trade

To me its certainly trading like a penny.


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## mardo (9 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> There really isn't any more news until the quarterly, so don't see what could be done by management. Last production report should have sparked more interest but didn't. I tend to agree with tech here. Only one way for a while.




Hi ML if  I read Reds 1/3/12 announcement correctly we may get an a report that RED's official declaration of "Plant Commercial Production  (30 continuous days at an average of 60%of the interim ore throughput rate of 750,000 dry tonnes per annum -anticipated by end of March 2012."

This should be a hugh posative for the company (if they can do this on time.)  Cheers.


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## mardo (9 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Well I dont know so much.
> *RED*
> There were 1000 trades today with $1.3 million traded
> Average $1300 a trade
> ...




Tech/a  This was clearly a lot of Bot trading on Red today!  The question is why?? do you think it is for accumulating shares or selling of shares? My money is on the former.


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## mrlister (9 March 2012)

Yesterday there was a relatively large sell off at 2.18. Packages of around 20k shares were being listed as soon as the previous lot were down to about 1000. It made it impossible for price to rise above that mark.


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## jancha (9 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Well I dont know so much.
> *RED*
> There were 1000 trades today with $1.3 million traded
> Average $1300 a trade
> ...




IF you think along lines of it being a penny share due to it's subdue trading then there's a bucket load of $2 companies in you so called penny stock section selection.  
It simply is'nt a penny stock no more. Back to realality and RED which given lack interest for now can certainly change down the track. Noone can predict that at this point in time.











Originally Posted by tech/a

Ill bet there are clear technical buy signals.

As For RED.
 I'm opting for the Blue option.

Attachment 45710

Thats right $1.20
 Anythings possible but unless something is seriously wrong with RED i'd be fairly confident that at its $1.58sp it would hit $1.90 before ever dropping to $1.20.
 And if you had to stake your reputation on it which would you truely choose Tech? 




Reply With Quote Multi+


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 March 2012)

I would be careful with RED.

Tech makes a lot of sense above.

gg


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## jancha (9 March 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would be careful with RED.
> 
> Tech makes a lot of sense above.
> 
> gg




How's that gg. Are talking about his technical or fundamental point of view? As there isn't any fundamentals in the above post it's a bit lop sided. 
Tech back in Jan. was calling RED @ $1.20 and that made sense too at the time but it didn't happen. 
 I respect Techs analysis but he's not always correct and calling a $2 stock a penny stock? Well.... it just aint... and dat gg dont make sense.


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## Boggo (9 March 2012)

jancha said:


> I respect Techs analysis but he's not always correct and calling a $2 stock a penny stock? Well.... it just aint... and dat gg dont make sense.




I too have called it a 20c stock, thats the reality, it is a 20c stock that has had a 10:1 consolidation.

RED is trading around $2.18 and BPT is trading around $1.45, look at the pics below and tell me which one makes sense.


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 March 2012)

jancha said:


> How's that gg. Are talking about his technical or fundamental point of view? As there isn't any fundamentals in the above post it's a bit lop sided.
> Tech back in Jan. was calling RED @ $1.20 and that made sense too at the time but it didn't happen.
> I respect Techs analysis but he's not always correct and calling a $2 stock a penny stock? Well.... it just aint... and dat gg dont make sense.




I just feel that without volume, it will drift, and drift down.

It looks toppy on the chart.

gg


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## jancha (10 March 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I just feel that without volume, it will drift, and drift down.
> 
> It looks toppy on the chart.
> 
> gg




Im with you on that at its present state without volume it should fall but say if i were to sell all my RED shares on that basis and it just stayed around the $2.15 to $2.20 mark and then an announcement came out with an upgrade in resources or production. Volume then may incease and it's sp rise. Then i've missed the boat.
 Im sure Tech knows what he's doing and is successful at it but i'm sure as hell the moment i sell the sp jumps for one reason or another. Its happened to me in the past and i aint chasing it unless it drops back down lower.( Thats why i trade in & out with only a portion of my holdings) As i've said before im not confident with charts and happy to take a loss on a bad decision but i dont think RED is a bad decision yet.
As a gold producing stock in it's infancy i see RED less and less of a risk. RED in 2010 had a higher sp when it WAS a penny stock and that was with nothing finished or set in concrete. A lot has changed now that it's finally in production and so as RED is updated along the way so should the sp given POG stays positive. Anyway we'll see what happens but my call is RED will be at the end of the financial year a $3+ rather than $1.20 share.


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## mrlister (10 March 2012)

Agree that the price will definitely rise eventually. But if you plan on sticking about to see it, then I'd prob just log off for a few months and take up golf.....take your mind off the stock market!!


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## jancha (10 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> Agree that the price will definitely rise eventually. But if you plan on sticking about to see it, then I'd prob just log off for a few months and take up golf.....take your mind off the stock market!!




You obviously dont read between the brackets. ( A portion of my shares are traded in and out). Game of golf sounds good tho.


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## tech/a (10 March 2012)

mardo said:


> Tech/a  This was clearly a lot of Bot trading on Red today!  The question is why?? do you think it is for accumulating shares or selling of shares? My money is on the former.




Do you honestly think anyone or any organization which is capable of designing a system which can be run as a " bot " is going to trade a stock that turns over  an average of 1 k a trade?
I'd be thinking more currencies indexes or commodities.


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## mardo (10 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Do you honestly think anyone or any organization which is capable of designing a system which can be run as a " bot " is going to trade a stock that turns over  an average of 1 k a trade?
> I'd be thinking more currencies indexes or commodities.




Tech/a All I know is there was 599.000 Red shares traded on Friday and thats about the average daily trading amount per day over the past six months,ie the volume was normal. How do you then explain all the wierd trading amounts then? There are a lot of $1 to $100  trades going on for a lot of the day,this has not been a normal trait for Red shares of late.


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## Garpal Gumnut (11 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Im with you on that at its present state without volume it should fall but say if i were to sell all my RED shares on that basis and it just stayed around the $2.15 to $2.20 mark and then an announcement came out with an upgrade in resources or production. Volume then may incease and it's sp rise. Then i've missed the boat.
> Im sure Tech knows what he's doing and is successful at it but i'm sure as hell the moment i sell the sp jumps for one reason or another. Its happened to me in the past and i aint chasing it unless it drops back down lower.( Thats why i trade in & out with only a portion of my holdings) As i've said before im not confident with charts and happy to take a loss on a bad decision but i dont think RED is a bad decision yet.
> As a gold producing stock in it's infancy i see RED less and less of a risk. RED in 2010 had a higher sp when it WAS a penny stock and that was with nothing finished or set in concrete. A lot has changed now that it's finally in production and so as RED is updated along the way so should the sp given POG stays positive. Anyway we'll see what happens but my call is RED will be at the end of the financial year a $3+ rather than $1.20 share.




No worries jancha, you may very well be correct, as long as you've considered the converse.

Best of investing to you.

gg


----------



## beatle (12 March 2012)

Hi ALL RED followers.

I read with interest all the posts on RED, interested in the technical commentaries which assumedly have some charting foundation and possibly forming the basis for the following days trading. But of course I read them all with a grain of salt, as I know that the underlying share price at the moment is substantially discounted to the fundamentals. 

And regardless of the "demand, the effort, the supply, the momentum" etc discussed technically, I know those factors can change in an instant. And it could happen any day now. 

I wonder which day is take-off, which day it will break that resistance at $2.35, which day it will break through its historic high of $2.60 (on a consolidated basis). Call it a 20 cents penny dreadful or whatever, it doesn't matter to me, its gonna break through, is it today, is it this week. Keep watching guys, you might be surprised one day, coming soon IMO!


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## mrlister (12 March 2012)

beatle said:


> Hi ALL RED followers.
> 
> I read with interest all the posts on RED, interested in the technical commentaries which assumedly have some charting foundation and possibly forming the basis for the following days trading. But of course I read them all with a grain of salt, as I know that the underlying share price at the moment is substantially discounted to the fundamentals.
> 
> ...





not a bad start today....but still has quite got the gas to climb that hill


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## tech/a (12 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> not a bad start today....but still has quite got the gas to climb that hill




No stocks can move forward until supply is either withdrawn or overcome by demand.
The highs are being tested again.
Lots of effort with a strong gap up.
For any climb to be sustained we need to see a strong break of resistance at $2.40


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## mrlister (12 March 2012)

if i was a smart man i would have sold at mid 30's. but i wasn't expecting it and was too slow. do you think it will rise again today? or are the charts pointing south?

ive given up hoping ((


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## tech/a (12 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> if i was a smart man i would have sold at mid 30's. but i wasn't expecting it and was too slow. do you think it will rise again today? or are the charts pointing south?
> 
> ive given up hoping ((




The recient highs are being tested again.
And again we are seeing resistance.
To me this indicates traders who set sells at these levels.
If supply dries up and only testing of the highs on lower volume will indicate this maybe occurring
But the real signal will be a clear effort to bridge resistance by either a strong gap above or a high volume wide range bar straight through which holds against any test of the break.

So in short I think it will go south from the current evidence.
It is really at a pivotal point.


----------



## mrlister (12 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> The recient highs are being tested again.
> And again we are seeing resistance.
> To me this indicates traders who set sells at these levels.
> If supply dries up and only testing of the highs on lower volume will indicate this maybe occurring
> ...




thanks tech. bickering aside, you advice really is well appreciated.


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## Wa11y (12 March 2012)

10:07:07 AM	2.390	10,522	25,147.580	
10:07:07 AM	2.390	3,000	7,170.000	

these were interesting.


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## mrlister (12 March 2012)

Wa11y said:


> 10:07:07 AM	2.390	10,522	25,147.580
> 10:07:07 AM	2.390	3,000	7,170.000
> 
> these were interesting.




whats also interesting is the volumes of buyers lined up. haven't seen this level of interest for a long time.


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## Wa11y (12 March 2012)

Rain around Siana so far this month has been minimal. Definitely a positive, given it's the first month of continuous production.


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## mrlister (12 March 2012)

Wa11y said:


> Rain around Siana so far this month has been minimal. Definitely a positive, given it's the first month of continuous production.





but thats not the kind of news that would be common knowledge to spike the share price like that.


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## beatle (12 March 2012)

reeftip said:


> Hmmm
> Just noticed RED is be added to the ASX 300
> 
> Now that might stir a bit of interest




Reeftip may have an explanation for the slight increase in demand, interest, and buying support for RED today: 

There is only this week to go before RED is included within the ASX300 at the start of trading next Monday, thus some funds investors may be taking up their required index weighting ahead of the day it has to be included to comply with their trading rules.

If this is the case, you can assume that RED will continue to be strong for a few more days.


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## Wa11y (12 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> but thats not the kind of news that would be common knowledge to spike the share price like that.




Didn't mean it as a reason why it spiked today, I just looked out of interest and the worst day so far this month was 7mm rainfall.


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## mrlister (12 March 2012)

Wa11y said:


> Didn't mean it as a reason why it spiked today, I just looked out of interest and the worst day so far this month was 7mm rainfall.




I would love to know why the interest today though. It's very odd seeing as there was no news.


----------



## beatle (13 March 2012)

Great opening, lol, but not sure it has much support! Perhaps some traders consider that the trend is UP thus have decided to hold off for a while. I HOPE, for the next 6 hours, haha.

But realistically, this minute by minute commentary on interpreting the charts will be all a distant memory once RED provides some information about significant production. All we need now is confirmation that gold is being produced along the lines of Production Guidance and its blast-off.

I think the best explanation of yesterday is RED's inclusion into the ASX300 for next Monday. I don't think that we are due to get a production update yet, although I'm not sure.


----------



## Trembling Hand (13 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> I would love to know why the interest today though. It's very odd seeing as there was no news.






beatle said:


> I think the best explanation of yesterday is RED's inclusion into the ASX300 for next Monday. I don't think that we are due to get a production update yet, although I'm not sure.




It would of been hedgies front running the ASX300 inclusion. The funds that are mandated to buy the ASX300 will not have done so yet as they cannot trade stocks outside their approved list. BUT the hedgies will most certainly walk a stock and then provide the extra volume to the funds once they can trade it, of course for a small clip . Expect to see more volume over the next few weeks.


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## beatle (13 March 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> It would of been hedgies front running the ASX300 inclusion. The funds that are mandated to buy the ASX300 will not have done so yet as they cannot trade stocks outside their approved list. BUT the hedgies will most certainly walk a stock and then provide the extra volume to the funds once they can trade it, of course for a small clip . Expect to see more volume over the next few weeks.




You make a very good point TremblingHand, do you have any idea how broad the ASX300 funds are? I'm not aware pesonally, and thought it was minor. BUT inclusion within the ASX200 is clearly a bigger event, and this may be only a few quarters off for RED ONCE it confirms its on track to meet something like $90 million profit for the financial year (based on current gold price of course!)!

Just on the trades so far, i'm impressed that sellers are holding out at the moment, that must be a positive coming in front of that inclusion to the ASX300.


----------



## skyQuake (13 March 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> It would of been hedgies front running the ASX300 inclusion. The funds that are mandated to buy the ASX300 will not have done so yet as they cannot trade stocks outside their approved list. BUT the hedgies will most certainly walk a stock and then provide the extra volume to the funds once they can trade it, of course for a small clip . Expect to see more volume over the next few weeks.




Plus its also being added to the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index. Which coincides with the S&P rebal this quarter.

Fun and games this Fri!


----------



## tech/a (13 March 2012)

So seems it is a lot of bot trading.
With more to come.


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## mrlister (13 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> So seems it is a lot of bot trading.
> With more to come.




is that sarcasm? didnt you deny the existence of bot trading last week? im at a loss to know which way this is headed. noone is buying or selling.


----------



## tech/a (13 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> is that sarcasm? didnt you deny the existence of bot trading last week? im at a loss to know which way this is headed. noone is buying or selling.




No not sarcasm.
Didnt deny its existance ---- only here.
But with funds involved then Bots will be involved
Im told more and more so.---everywhere where algorithms can be applied.

As for direction
Nothing has changed still at resistance.


----------



## beatle (13 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> No not sarcasm.
> Didnt deny its existance ---- only here.
> But with funds involved then Bots will be involved
> Im told more and more so.---everywhere where algorithms can be applied.
> ...




MrLister I am not trying to quibble, but realistically IF you truly believe that Tech/a is only now realising that this stock is being Bot traded then honestly all the credibility of this technical commentary must be questioned.

RED has been Bot traded for the past  year at least, you have to understand that funds groups have been in here for a long time. When a fund is buying to build up a stake on-market (and admittedly a lot of them invested via placement a while ago) they tend to have one request of the broker buying on their behalf - that they buy in at the days weighted average. That in itself requires careful algorithmic buying/selling during the day.

Anyone who denies Bot trading in RED, should be looked at with some doubts of his knowledge OR his motivations IMO. I think its a great thing that we are hanging up around this resistance level, seems that we might need an initiating factor to break it in coming days, BUT for sure if there is any positive announcement about production then RED will break it and not look back!

(By the way I don't like to post behind someone's back but I am sure the identical twin and the 20 cents speccy commentator Boggo will be looking on, lol).

Each days a battle for RED at the moment, and it can go both ways until the production realisation breaks the barriers!


----------



## jancha (13 March 2012)

Boggo said:


> I too have called it a 20c stock, thats the reality, it is a 20c stock that has had a 10:1 consolidation.
> 
> RED is trading around $2.18 and BPT is trading around $1.45, look at the pics below and tell me which one makes sense.




Just one Question for you Boggo how many 20c so called penny stocks get listed on the ASX 300? And what make sense is RED has more upside in whats to come than BPT imo. Trading around $2.30 now. Not $2 or $1.20.  Each to their own.


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## tech/a (13 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Just one Question for you Boggo how many 20c so called penny stocks get listed on the ASX 300? And what make sense is RED has more upside in whats to come than BPT imo. Trading around $2.30 now. Not $2 or $1.20.  Each to their own.




*From the ASX Site*

S&P/ASX 200 Index

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO) is recognised as the investable benchmark for the Australian equity market, it addresses the needs of investment managers to benchmark against a portfolio characterised by sufficient size and liquidity. The S&P/ASX 200 is comprised of the S&P/ASX 100 plus an additional 100 stocks. It forms the basis for the S&P/ASX 200 Index Future and Options and the SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).

S&P/ASX 300 Index

The S&P/ASX 300 Index*(XKO) provides additional depth and coverage to the S&P/ASX 200 whilst maintaining strict liquidity guidelines. It provides up to an additional 100 small-cap stocks to the S&P/ASX 200. Companies removed from the index*are replaced when a suitable candidate is available, or at the quarterly review. It forms the basis for the Vanuard Australian Shares Index 300 Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).

still acting like a 20c stock----- small cap!


*


----------



## Boggo (13 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Just one Question for you Boggo how many 20c so called penny stocks get listed on the ASX 300?




Answer = 11, some are less than 20c though, is that ok ?

Let me know when RED gets out of the small caps and gets in the ASX 200.

Hope this list helps you out


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## Wa11y (13 March 2012)

This spec vs non-spec debate is futile. End it now I say.


----------



## mrlister (13 March 2012)

Back on RED. What are people's thoughts on today? When looked in isolation, it prob didn't do so well when compared to the market. A lot of big gainers today in mining sector. But those that watched it closer would have to of been impressed with how its sellers didn't lose their bundle when the buyers dried up. Noone was prepared to sell under 2.3 even when the next buyers were at 2.26. It held and made they buyers come back to meet at their price. I have never seen this from RED before. 

Looking at how high Europe has opened, and positive news expected in US Overnight. Maybe now is itx chance to break free?

Thoughts?


----------



## beatle (13 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> Back on RED. What are people's thoughts on today? When looked in isolation, it prob didn't do so well when compared to the market. A lot of big gainers today in mining sector. But those that watched it closer would have to of been impressed with how its sellers didn't lose their bundle when the buyers dried up. Noone was prepared to sell under 2.3 even when the next buyers were at 2.26. It held and made they buyers come back to meet at their price. I have never seen this from RED before.
> 
> Looking at how high Europe has opened, and positive news expected in US Overnight. Maybe now is itx chance to break free?
> 
> Thoughts?




Hi MrLister, not sure which share you were watching today, RED actually did trade below $2.30 during the session but ended on the close spot on its VWAP for the day of $2.30! I think that points to the fact that the Bots did their job for funds/hedge groups who were probably the main buyers during the session. 

With regard to your view that there's a chance to break free at the moment, actually no I don't think so. Perhaps the price can move up towards the first real resistance at $2.35 but I still think that it probably requires some production update confirming that the gold production is starting to bubble along. IMO until the market is convinced that all is well and there is a chance that they can in fact achieve something like Production Guidance Forecasts there will not be the conviction to the buying - BUT once that ramp up of gold production is indicated to be underway THEN we will see a quick jump above not only the resistance at $2.35/$2.40, but more like testing $2.60 and beyond.

RED is now on the brink of $300 million market cap! Once the ramp up is complete I can see it moving up towards and in excess of $500 million, thus a share price towards and beyond $3.90. Once it becomes clear that a PE around 3 is likely that could push it higher than that, but this is our next goal for longer term investors. 

Traders should re-consider their short term trading strategy once it breaks those next coming resistance levels IMO as then its not likely to be range traded so successfully. Then you could be chasing it up!


----------



## mrlister (13 March 2012)

There were quite a few at 2.29, and dribbles at 2.28. But the bulk of the sellers were sitting at about 2.33-34 and the bulk of the buyers were sitting about the 2.25-2.26 mark. All the bot trading was at the 2.29-2.3 mark. They did do their Job well. 600k worth of shares traded without Impacting price too much.


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## jancha (13 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> *From the ASX Site*
> 
> S&P/ASX 200 Index
> 
> ...



A step in the right direction dont you think?  As i said back when you were calling a $1.20. How far out were you & your shadow (Boggo) on that..... $2.30 -$1.20= $1.10 difference. It was a great buying opportunity back then and still is now imo. Where do you see RED from here??  I still like your reasoning with the charts but you just dont seem to understand the fundamentals of this stock.
Lets go forward in this as it's simply not a penny stock anymore and it is in the ASX 300 for a reason. Nothing negative about that hey.


----------



## tech/a (14 March 2012)

jancha said:


> A step in the right direction dont you think?  As i said back when you were calling a $1.20. How far out were you & your shadow (Boggo) on that..... $2.30 -$1.20= $1.10 difference. It was a great buying opportunity back then and still is now imo. Where do you see RED from here??  I still like your reasoning with the charts but you just dont seem to understand the fundamentals of this stock.
> Lets go forward in this as it's simply not a penny stock anymore and it is in the ASX 300 for a reason. Nothing negative about that hey.




Again
I have no interest in fundamentals.
All is seen in the chart.

Technical analysis can be used in many time frames.
Im looking at RED at the hard right hand edge of the chart.
As such the analysis is a daily proposition.
I've had a few short ( long )trades both positive.

If it breaks clearly I'm on again.
If it doesn't the $1.20 level is possible.
The $3.00 level is also possible.

Buying back at the $2.10 ish area was a buying opportunity
But runs the real possibility fo resisting at where it is now.
I was one who sold out ( at 2.30 ) so I'm currently out at no risk and 2c worse off.
No big deal. It's just " a " way to trade not " the" way to trade.

Long term holding on fundamental analysis is also a way of trading not " the " only way
To trade. In various time frames there will be analysis that contradicts a longer term out look and 
Contradicts a shorter time frame analysis.


----------



## mrlister (14 March 2012)

What are your charts saying about RED for today?

And what is 'breaks'? 2.40.....lower, higher?


----------



## tech/a (14 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> What are your charts saying about RED for today?
> 
> And what is 'breaks'? 2.40.....lower, higher?




No different to the last few weeks
Has to break resistance.
$2.40 and hold


----------



## beatle (14 March 2012)

beatle said:


> .....
> 
> With regard to your view that there's a chance to break free at the moment, actually no I don't think so. Perhaps the price can move up towards the first real resistance at $2.35 but I still think that it probably requires some production update confirming that the gold production is starting to bubble along. IMO until the market is convinced that all is well and there is a chance that they can in fact achieve something like Production Guidance Forecasts there will not be the conviction to the buying - BUT once that ramp up of gold production is indicated to be underway THEN we will see a quick jump above not only the resistance at $2.35/$2.40, but more like testing $2.60 and beyond.
> .....




I just want to clarify one thing with this point above that I made (and it seems it will open softer, probably due to the gold price dropping as much as anything) whilst it can go back down a tad and unlikely to break resistance levels at $2.35 in the short term, there is NO WAY I would contemplate selling at the moment. EACH day is a day when there could be a major move upwards, who knows exactly when that comes I'm not sure. I don't want to try to make a few bucks on a quick trade when it could very easily break upwards very fast at some time soon!

And yes, I think Tech/a gives us a clue to him actually actively trading RED now, both long and short positions, thus it gives you an idea how he is also talking his book. There's nothing wrong with that of course, I do that too, but I mention it as you must realise that his words are well timed to accomodate his own strategy in place, not anyone else's! Thats my view anyway.


----------



## Trembling Hand (14 March 2012)

beatle said:


> And yes, I think Tech/a gives us a clue to him actually actively trading RED now, both long and short positions, thus it gives you an idea how he is also talking his book. There's nothing wrong with that of course, I do that too, but I mention it as you must realise that his words are well timed to accomodate his own strategy in place, not anyone else's! Thats my view anyway.




LOL. You suggesting that his down ramping it to advantage a possible short position? Really??


----------



## beatle (14 March 2012)

Maybe I'm stating the obvious TremblingHand but it seems to me certain posters are hanging on his every word! I would hate to see some longer term investors actually decide changing their investment strategy based on those words (I'm not sure but I think that Moit may well have done that, to his own disadvantage as he moved out of RED and into NST just before it karked itself).

And yes, I'm a caring sort of guy, lol!


----------



## tech/a (14 March 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL. You suggesting that his down ramping it to advantage a possible short position? Really??




Well I do own a white coat and I am watching!
Thats day wear.
Night wear is a black suit with Dark glasses.

*Tech/a and Boggo EXPOSED*


*

*

Oh and would you mind pointing me to the 
"down *ramping*" section of my posts on RED.

Enough of this I have millions of shorts I need to take care of.


----------



## Trembling Hand (14 March 2012)

beatle said:


> I would hate to see some longer term investors actually decide changing their investment strategy based on those words (I'm not sure but I think that Moit may well have done that, to his own disadvantage as he moved into NST just before it karked itself).



As opposed to these words of influence?



beatle said:


> there is NO WAY I would contemplate selling at the moment. EACH day is a day when there could be a major move upwards, who knows exactly when that comes I'm not sure.




Maybe your right. But as an outside observer, I don't trade stocks, the difference between your ramps and techs is risk management both negative and positive risk. I would consider a statement with the words "NO WAY" far more worrying than a few post about playing price action as a trader.

Come on.


----------



## beatle (14 March 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Maybe your right. But as an outside observer, I don't trade stocks, the difference between your ramps and techs is risk management both negative and positive risk. I would consider a statement with the words "NO WAY" far more worrying than a few post about playing price action as a trader.
> 
> Come on.




To be perfectly honest I'm not sure what you mean by my use of the words "NO WAY" being far more worrying? Very simply, I am a long term holder of RED, and NO WAY would I contemplate selling some RED now to make a quick buck due to the fact that I'm expecting RED share price to move up appreciably once gold production is confirmed to be building - I just don't want to risk being out now having waited so long for this moment about to happen (well I think its going to happen). So that's why I use the words NO WAY.


----------



## Trembling Hand (14 March 2012)

beatle said:


> I just don't want to risk being out now having waited so long for this moment about to happen (well I think its going to happen). So that's why I use the words NO WAY.



But thats where it gets a bit rich you trying to discredit Techs stuff by incorrectly stating his short the stock and down ramping it. His post from my reading manage that risk of being "out" quite well.


----------



## tech/a (14 March 2012)

Could someone who is a fundi please explain to me why buying is not occurring at lower prices if------this company is expected to have the returns touted by some as enough to have it trading at $3 plus this year.

Nothing has changed has it?
If thats the case $2.20 is a bargain
so why are we seeing it drop off---from a Fundamental view point?
Why aren't fund managers investing millions of their clients cash to
rake in a certain (according to those who would have us believe) 40%
Thats an amazing return!!

*So why is price falling???*

Forget the gold price argument because if thats so then the stock is governed by gold price *NOT* "expected" production figures.

But wait---maybe----no Ill hold my tongue until I hear from more learned folk.


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## mrlister (14 March 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> But thats where it gets a bit rich you trying to discredit Techs stuff by incorrectly stating his short the stock and down ramping it. His post from my reading manage that risk of being "out" quite well.




its like 'home and away' around here!!

id be intereted to see who is doing better so far...the techies or the fundies. % wise that is.


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## skyQuake (14 March 2012)

imo 222 here is a decent buy into Fri's S&P reweight and Market Vectors reweight.
Oh and gap fill too.


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## tech/a (14 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> its like 'home and away' around here!!
> 
> id be intereted to see who is doing better so far...the techies or the fundies. % wise that is.




I care about one thing.
RISK.
Currently Im not in RED so have no risk.
The market is CURRENTLY tellling me there is more risk in trading the up side than standing aside. (I dont trade stock short only Indexes Im with IB---dont trade CFD's never have never will.).

Those who are astute will have noticed 
I only care about numbers.
Limit Risk maximise profit. those who are ling below $2.00 dont have to concern themselves with such issues---do they???


----------



## beatle (14 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> its like 'home and away' around here!!
> 
> id be intereted to see who is doing better so far...the techies or the fundies. % wise that is.




Honestly MrLister, I couldn't help but fall over laughing with this post, its a tick for me!

In terms of % returns, ANYONE would have killed me as I have had some of my shares from many years ago, thus my overall return is nothing at all. Of course there are times more recently that I have made a real killing on the shares (for example I bought a few months ago at $1.50 when Tech/a was calling it to go to $1.20) but having not sold a share in more recent times I would say my overall return won't be anything like a successful technical trader who gets it right. BUT indications are that I WILL make more than a mint on it when I finally sell out (I'm already making a mint) due to the number of shares i hold!

I assume Tech/a was asking another fundamentalist for a view as a rhetorical question (he's probably holding shorts at the moment, lol). Interestingly, the short term share prices of gold stocks will be affected by any severe gold price movements regardless of valuations, (and ironically this seems to more follow the US$ gold price movements than than the A$ gold price movements regardless of the fact that profits are reported in A$ for Aussie companies).

Mgm1a also uses fundamental cash flow valuation and he as "an independent" commentator (lol) would be great to give an indication of RED share price value at the moment.


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## tech/a (14 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Could someone who is a fundi please explain to me why buying is not occurring at lower prices if------this company is expected to have the returns touted by some as enough to have it trading at $3 plus this year.
> 
> Nothing has changed has it?
> If thats the case $2.20 is a bargain
> ...




Anyone with a WHY?
Anyone?


----------



## skyQuake (14 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Anyone with a WHY?
> Anyone?




Some fundie accidentally pressed sell instead of buy.


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## tech/a (14 March 2012)

skyQuake said:


> Some fundie accidentally pressed sell instead of buy.




As I thought.
NoFookingidea

Techies call it lack of demand


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## Wa11y (14 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> As I thought.
> NoFookingidea
> 
> Techies call it lack of demand




Why the lack of demand? I assumed the question went one step further which is why no-one answered.

And institutions won't be buying millions as it won't be on the majority of APLs.


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## jancha (14 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> As I thought.
> NoFookingidea
> 
> Techies call it lack of demand




Thought you had enough of this.... a million shorts to take care of?
 Low volume in todays trading only reflects the drop in gold price over night.
I'd say the demand will be there when consistency of producing gold is announced. 
It also has Mapawa in the back ground to work on in the future. 30ks from Siana?


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## mrlister (14 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Thought you had enough of this.... a million shorts to take care of?
> Low volume in todays trading only reflects the drop in gold price over night.
> I'd say the demand will be there when consistency of producing gold is announced.
> It also has Mapawa in the back ground to work on in the future. 30ks from Siana?




you gotta admit the techies team do have a pretty compelling argument though!!


----------



## Buckfont (14 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> its like 'home and away' around here!!
> 
> id be intereted to see who is doing better so far...the techies or the fundies. % wise that is.




More like the `Young and the Restless.`Make that the Old and the Restless I`m hanging in here. I have no tech knowledge so side with beatles and others F/A. Like a coin there are only two sides, oh and the edge, but it is still the same coin. 6 months down the track we will see what that edge is.


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## tech/a (14 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Thought you had enough of this.... a million shorts to take care of?
> Low volume in todays trading only reflects the drop in gold price over night.
> *I'd say the demand will be there when consistency of producing gold is announced.
> It also has Mapawa in the back ground to work on in the future. 30ks from Siana?*




Yeah I hear that.
So why are more people not buying up as prices fall?
Is there some trepidation that this may not cause the price to raise to $3 or more?
Or may infact fall short of "expectation" as this is only expectation or is it set in concrete?
It will most definately happen?
There is absolutely no doubth this stock WILL rise to $3 or more bet your house---err beatles house.---


----------



## mardo (14 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Yeah I hear that.
> So why are more people not buying up as prices fall?
> Is there some trepidation that this may not cause the price to raise to $3 or more?
> Or may infact fall short of "expectation" as this is only expectation or is it set in concrete?
> ...




Tech/a 
The volume looks fine to me at 947,000 today, thats way above the six month average.
We have Red  entering ASX300 on Monday and Commercial production  commencement just arround the corner,I'm with Beatle not a good time to be short in RED shares.


----------



## tech/a (14 March 2012)

mardo said:


> Tech/a
> The volume looks fine to me at 947,000 today, thats way above the six month average.
> *We have Red  entering ASX300 on Monday and Commercial production  commencement just arround the corner,I'm with Beatle not a good time to be short in RED shares.*





Who's suggesting going short?
My question is why aren't people buying at lower prices with all these great fundamental opportunities that are going to happen?

I keep highlighting them but evidently price falls if gold tanks.
So it appears that RED is influenced more by gold price then all these expectations.

As of yet no one has been able to present a cohesive argument. To my question.


----------



## jancha (14 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Yeah I hear that.
> So why are more people not buying up as prices fall?
> Is there some trepidation that this may not cause the price to raise to $3 or more?
> Or may infact fall short of "expectation" as this is only expectation or is it set in concrete?
> ...




 Lol Nothing is set in concrete as you say thats why you read the charts for direction and it works for more often than not otherwise you wouldn't still be here.
However you can get it wrong....If you recall back when you were calling RED $1.20 when the sp was $1.50 i was saying it would go to $1.90 before it would go to $1.20. I asked you back then if you had to stake a claim on it which way would you honestly think the more likelihood of it going? I think you side stepped that question.
 My point is fundamentally i think RED will continue to rise and i doubt it will see your $1.20 given that the POG ect. all staying roughly the same. If all runs smoothly with their production i can only see it going up.
Would i put my house on it? Nah.. Only death & taxes is for certain anything can change but as you do you have to make a decision on whether you buy a stock on what you read into it.... Sometimes you get it wrong but more often hopefully you get it right. 

So i'll asked you again Tech IF YOU HAD TO make the choice between RED dropping to $1.20 or rising to $3 given POG ect all stay the same which one would honestly choose??? No side stepping  LOL


----------



## tech/a (14 March 2012)

I don't have to make that choice
But if it clears resistance then $3 is more likely
If it doesn't then breaks close support ---- then $1.20 is likely

That is all I can tell from the charts at this time


----------



## jancha (14 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> I don't have to make that choice
> But if it clears resistance then $3 is more likely
> If it doesn't then breaks close support ---- then $1.20 is likely
> 
> That is all I can tell from the charts at this time




Side stepper. No offence but i thought you'd come up with that as not everyone can read the charts so it does'nt really help those that are holding. BY selling thinking it may go down one could easily get it wrong and lose out on the jump. 
Off RED but Look at EKA for eg. a month back 20c now 38c. I held and held because it stayed around 20c for months I got out to buy other shares thinking to come back in later. As with that one i liked the fundamentals but no sooner had i sold it started on it's merry climb. 20k mistake tho i still made a small profit. Patience


----------



## tech/a (14 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Side stepper. No offence but i thought you'd come up with that as not everyone can read the charts so it does'nt really help those that are holding. BY selling thinking it may go down one could easily get it wrong and lose out on the jump.
> Off RED but Look at EKA for eg. a month back 20c now 38c. I held and held because it stayed around 20c for months I got out to buy other shares thinking to come back in later. As with that one i liked the fundamentals but no sooner had i sold it started on it's merry climb. 20k mistake tho i still made a small profit. Patience




Patience can be a two edged sword.
I haven't looked at EKA but I'll bet it had technical
Buy signals all over the chart.


----------



## fastbuck1 (14 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Patience can be a two edged sword.
> I haven't looked at EKA but I'll bet it had technical
> Buy signals all over the chart.




rrs is a good one to trade and chart


----------



## mrlister (14 March 2012)

Half yearly budget just released. Nothing too surprising by the look of it.


----------



## Fantasy09 (14 March 2012)

NA gold future is down again so could be another down day tomorrow.


----------



## mrlister (14 March 2012)

Gold is tumbling down atm. 2% so far. I guess we will see tomorrow just how much RED is driven by gold price.


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## mrlister (15 March 2012)

Ouch.....in a double blow, that report said that commissioning is expected to continue through to the end of march when production will commence. Weren't they supposed to already be in production and report at end of march just how well first month of production went??


----------



## jancha (15 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> Ouch.....in a double blow, that report said that commissioning is expected to continue through to the end of march when production will commence. Weren't they supposed to already be in production and report at end of march just how well first month of production went??




Your not serious are you? Because it's still in the commissioning stage this quarter  doesn't mean they're not producing. Only means that they'll have a better idea on their production rate after all the hiccups are sorted out and running smoothly for the next quarter.


----------



## tech/a (15 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Your not serious are you? Because it's still in the commissioning stage this quarter  doesn't mean they're not producing. Only means that they'll have a better idea on their production rate after all the hiccups are sorted out and running smoothly for the next quarter.




Ahh so this is " hope "
Good luck with that.


----------



## Fantasy09 (15 March 2012)

North American gold stocks are down any where between 2% to 5%.  Interesting to see how RED and other Aussie gold stocks would stand up to the test by end of the day.


----------



## mrlister (15 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Your not serious are you? Because it's still in the commissioning stage this quarter  doesn't mean they're not producing. Only means that they'll have a better idea on their production rate after all the hiccups are sorted out and running smoothly for the next quarter.




Absolutely serious, pretty certain they would mention the producing part if it were so.


----------



## Wa11y (15 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Ahh so this is " hope "
> Good luck with that.




Sorry how is this hope? 

Like TA, fundamentals is also about weighing up risk/reward. What will happen to SP if they have a good month's production? What is the risk that they will not? Many factors - rain being one of them.

You've done this before - like with the first gold pour (started commenting on 50% silver when you clearly have no idea). Perhaps before commenting about mine operations, have a read about it. Or don't comment -as you've clearly stated you're not interested in fundamentals.


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## mrlister (15 March 2012)

'Hope' was a bit or sarcasm from previous discussions, you can untie your knickers now.

But from listening to all angles around here, one thing that is said a bit is to 'read between the lines', something I don't like doing, as I like facts. But if I was to do this then I don't think production has progressed too far at all!!


----------



## Wa11y (15 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> 'Hope' was a bit or sarcasm from previous discussions, you can untie your knickers now.
> 
> But from listening to all angles around here, one thing that is said a bit is to 'read between the lines', something I don't like doing, as I like facts. But if I was to do this then I don't think production has progressed too far at all!!




True - I don't like how RED management operate with announcements. However, I feel we need to focus on the annoucement on 1/03/2012 which clearly indicates March is a production month. Main one being - target production 4 months to June 2012. This includes March if I count backwards correctly.

And I can't untie them now - it's far too late, they've gone into the depths within.


----------



## beatle (15 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> ...
> 
> But from listening to all angles around here, one thing that is said a bit is to 'read between the lines', something I don't like doing, as I like facts. But if I was to do this then I don't think production has progressed too far at all!!




MrLister, as well as reading between the lines, you also must read THE lines:

The ASX announcement 

"Siana gold mine
- production and cost guidance
Commissioning at the Siana gold mine continues, with the declaration
of Plant Commercial Production (30 continuous days at an average of
60 percent of the interim ore throughput rate of 750,000 dry tonnes
per annum) anticipated by the end of March 2012."

Its a shame the gold price karked itself again last night, softened to a slight degree by a stronger US$. Of course this won't help any gold producers today.


----------



## Wa11y (15 March 2012)

beatle said:


> MrLister, as well as reading between the lines, you also must read THE lines:
> 
> The ASX announcement
> 
> ...




I am worried about this: "Commissioning is expected to continue until the end of March 2012 when the company anticipates commercial production will commence." Seems contradictary.

Hmm - no trading for a few days now.


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## mrlister (15 March 2012)

And now Capitol raising???? WTF? I thought cash flows were strong?


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## Starcraftmazter (15 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> And now Capitol raising???? WTF? I thought cash flows were strong?




That and the god price will provide a nice entry point.


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## beatle (15 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> And now Capitol raising???? WTF? I thought cash flows were strong?




I guess its one way to prevent the share price dropping on a dismal day for gold producers! Very intriguing, I can't imagine what it might mean.


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## mrlister (15 March 2012)

Unless they are raising to ramp up the second site?


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## mrlister (15 March 2012)

Looks like it will drop in the short term, monkey's don't like uncertainty and will surely start jumping from the tree. But on a bright note, looks like there might be some cheap bananas on sale soon.


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## Wa11y (15 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> Unless they are raising to ramp up the second site?




That was my guess - has to be something fairly significant given cash at bank.


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## beatle (15 March 2012)

If you are both referring to Mapawa, then no it will not be related to development of that site, first you have to find the ore and do a feasibility study, that takes a lot of exploration. 

Realistically, this will be most likely related to Siana. It could be related to the ongoing problems of sticky ore, requiring additional significant engineerying variations to the front end of the plant to ensure plant throughput can be maintained at the optimum rate. But it seems so strange for it to come out at this point, having only recently put the Guidance out, which forecasts 18,000 ozs gold in this financial year. I confess its got me stumped.


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## mrlister (15 March 2012)

Aren't we glad they all got their pay rises now!!


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## beatle (15 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> Aren't we glad they all got their pay rises now!!




I bet FWPike gives us a post now that you mention that, lol! (But I agree with you both!)


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## beatle (15 March 2012)

Who knows, it could be an SPP only, to enable existing shareholders acquire shares at the current share price less discount, for $5,000 worth of shares, before it takes off, lol (but I don't think there would be a TH for that purpose unfortunately!).


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## mgm1a (15 March 2012)

beatle it can't be sticky ore or any other short term problem - there is cash there and they haven't touched DEBT - short term funding must surely be available for anything of that nature - besides they have said so, so many times.

my bet is taht it relates to the mysterious share consolidation and attraction to instos who may want it to expand/acquire/diversify - they have plans that aren't yet apparent


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## beatle (15 March 2012)

Mgm1a, I believe your reasoning is very sound, and if that is the reason then we are talking a very positive outcome indeed!


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## tech/a (15 March 2012)

Hmm
An attempt to stop hemorrhaging.
Ever get the feeling your being manipulated?
Brain washed?
Led to believe?
Walked down the garden path.

And some of you have $1000s invested.---OOOOOh

But hey
All clouds have a silver---err---Gold Lining.

All you need do is BELIEVE.


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## mr. jeff (15 March 2012)

Well there is not much to say for RED except that this is what has happened





to a lot of people.

POG not looking stimulated and RED surprising to the down side. And not much info yet about what is happening with the funds...perhaps they are looking at getting a computer hooked up to the internet so they can release information to shareholders ?

Would expect 2.00 - 2.10 level for raising (unless it is insto only for some reason, could be a positive surprise but no great indication yet) and the price to show 1.80 ish after open unless gold turns strong or other event.

Not much fun.


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## Starcraftmazter (15 March 2012)

As a punt for myself, I don't see a raising above the $2 mark.


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## fwpike (15 March 2012)

How could they possibly consider further diluting of the shareholding when they have a very positive cash flow and money in the bank.  Yes Beatle I did say that pay rises should be tied to dividends and yes here I am saying it again. And I did also vote against allowing management to make further issues without our consent !


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## skyQuake (15 March 2012)

$20~25M @ $2.10 ish i believe


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## anderbond (15 March 2012)

$25 M at 2.12 per share. AB


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## Starcraftmazter (15 March 2012)

Well that's quite good! Guess I was too much hoping for a lower entry for myself :

Of course it still could go to $2 as a result, let's wait and see.


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## mrlister (15 March 2012)

anderbond said:


> $25 M at 2.12 per share. AB




Is that confirmed? It prob would have dropped to that today anyway, so in effect you are buying a smaller slice of the pie for same price. ****ty deal of you ask me!!


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## tech/a (15 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Well that's quite good! Guess I was too much hoping for a lower entry for myself :
> 
> Of course it still could go to $2 as a result, let's wait and see.




Nah wait
First support at around $2

If that fails the next at Around $1.45

If that fails then $1.20 ish.

Maybe I should look into CFD shorts!


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## notting (15 March 2012)

I love this thread!


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## jancha (15 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Nah wait
> First support at around $2
> 
> If that fails the next at Around $1.45
> ...




If the sky should fall..If If.... Your such a pessimist Tech lol


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## Wa11y (15 March 2012)

jancha said:


> If the sky should fall..If If.... Your such a pessimist Tech lol




Yeah I've blocked now. $85m debt free mine very close to production - $1.20 isn't happening.


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## beatle (15 March 2012)

Hi AB, the purpose? Is that from HC/CEBonomics, or elsewhere?


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## anderbond (15 March 2012)

Hi Beatle, Its from elsewhere. Standby facility with Sprott has a number of caveats attached. Direct equity route is considered best way to circumvent any strains on balance sheet and cash flow. Optimisation of the plant requires completion of outstanding automatic controls over next two months so gold production can be maximised and costs minimised. Cash is starting to run down so capital raising to ensure no problems.
Other news is that RED is in final negotiations of 5 year tax holiday with Philippine government. AB


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## beatle (15 March 2012)

Thanks AB, I guess its not so bad if they bed it down at $2.12, although it may well have been handled better! (I spoke to them a couple of months ago and asked the very question about their cash position noting the earthworks continuing at the same rate despite the commissioning slowed down and they didn't seem too fussed at that time!). Subsequent to my question of you I understand its likely to be over-subscribed, so I hope it won't be added to, esp as its being done now as much as a prudent measure and not an absolute necessity (ie conservatism on a "prudent CR" would really suck IMO).

Yes that 5 year tax holiday is what most analysts have not considered, most had assumed 4 years due to that conservative approach by management at the time of completing the BFS. Its a bonus for valuation although of course in the fifth year you are well discounting the cash flows on an NPV basis.  It adds a bit to the model valuation price for RED.


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## beatle (15 March 2012)

Hey Boggo, can I ask a favour of you please?

Can you wake your brother up and ask him if he wants a bet about RED moving down to $1.20 after this TH is removed. In fact I'm happy to take a bet with him that it won't even move below 10% from that placement price within 5 days of the TH being announced (eg if the placement price is say $2.12 then that it won't hit below $1.91 within 5 trading days after the TH). 

I know I am being very generous, esp since the gold price has karked it for the past 2 days, and Tech/a has suggested $1.20 again, but you know i'm a caring sort of a guy.


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## Chasero (15 March 2012)

Well, things can go extremely pear shaped (see NST capital raising) or go extremely well (MAD).

I'm leaning towards a NST type capital raising.. going to really screw up the prices with sp price diluted around $2.10 imo.

Would be surprised to see RED hold steady as it is already at it's all time highs..

Could very well be wrong, but RED might see sub $2 in a few weeks.


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## jancha (15 March 2012)

Hi Beatle I hope you haven't put me on your ignor list lol. Do you know who in Australia RED have a J/V with?


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## beatle (15 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Hi Beatle I hope you haven't put me on your ignor list lol. Do you know who in Australia RED have a J/V with?




Hi Jancha, a couple of points:
1. I don't believe in ignore lists. Firstly I listen to anyone before I form my own view. Secondly I haven't had any problems with things you have said anyway, whether it was positive or negative to RED. As I have always believed, we all benefit by a variety of posters, even some of the REAL negative ones (it increases the reach of this thread for a start, and makes it more controversial!).
2. I'm struggling to understand the reason or relevance for the question. Maybe you can explain please? RED has a JV with Gateway Mining, and a royalty arrangement with the tantalum miner Galaxy Resources.


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## beatle (15 March 2012)

RED has put out a new Investor Presentation. It doesn't refer anywhere regarding the Capital Raising referred to in the Trading Halt.

It does refer to an additional outstanding $10.2 million required to complete the build, noting it had $10 million cash in the kitty.

It reconfirms the expectation that Siana will move into production phase at 1 April (shame they didn't say 2 April, lol). It also reconfirms the production guidance previously announced.

There is comment re the resources upgrade of 21% likely to delay underground production by up to 3 years, and refers to a 10 year life. Additionally it refers to the near-mine site resource potential indicated by recent drilling.

I assume this presentation has been provided to enable insto's to consider participation within the placement expected.


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## mrlister (15 March 2012)

I have issues with the 1st April date, when they said only a few weeks ago that march was a production month?!!! What else are they lying about? Is it really April, why not lie again in a month and change it to may??

I would consider buying RED again, but most likely only around the 1.6 mark!


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## mr. jeff (15 March 2012)

beatle said:


> RED has put out a new Investor Presentation. It doesn't refer anywhere regarding the Capital Raising referred to in the Trading Halt.
> 
> It does refer to an additional outstanding $10.2 million required to complete the build, noting it had $10 million cash in the kitty.
> 
> ...




I haven't read it but that sounds like quite a positive release and must be a relief.
With a decent upgrade and some production figures, that could comfortably propel it over that hump and to better things. The way RED has been lurking in this range may suggest that a lot of sellers have now moved on to the next hope...so with renewed vigour it may get interesting again, but i have noticed that a lot of comparable stocks have been hit with strong institutional selling over the past week - whether this is permanent or not is another question. Perhaps reliable cheap producers will remain attractive compared with explorers only.

Just give the management team a kick in the shareholder communication lobe of the brain though.


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## jancha (15 March 2012)

beatle said:


> Hi Jancha, a couple of points:
> 1. I don't believe in ignore lists. Firstly I listen to anyone before I form my own view. Secondly I haven't had any problems with things you have said anyway, whether it was positive or negative to RED. As I have always believed, we all benefit by a variety of posters, even some of the REAL negative ones (it increases the reach of this thread for a start, and makes it more controversial!).
> 2. I'm struggling to understand the reason or relevance for the question. Maybe you can explain please? RED has a JV with Gateway Mining, and a royalty arrangement with the tantalum miner Galaxy Resources.




Settle petal dont take things so seriously. Thats why a had a lol after it and besides that i haven't had anything negative to say about RED only positives.
Relevance? Just interested in who they had a J/V in Australia as i red it somewhere but thought you'd know off hand. Cheers buddy


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## Wa11y (15 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> I have issues with the 1st April date, when they said only a few weeks ago that march was a production month?!!! What else are they lying about? Is it really April, why not lie again in a month and change it to may??
> 
> I would consider buying RED again, but most likely only around the 1.6 mark!




I do too, but from what I understand they're in production in March, just at a significantly lower rate than say, in 4 months, as they're still commissioning. April 1 represents full production - no further commissioning. Correct me if I'm wrong?


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## Wa11y (15 March 2012)

Wa11y said:


> I do too, but from what I understand they're in production in March, just at a significantly lower rate than say, in 4 months, as they're still commissioning. April 1 represents full production - no further commissioning. Correct me if I'm wrong?




Further to this, they still say "4 months to June" - meaning inclusive of March?


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## mrlister (15 March 2012)

But I didn't think full production was to commence until June, so everything until then should have been part production......so it still makes no sense. Is trading going to commence tomorrow or is it still Monday. I'm very keen to see where it goes


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## Wa11y (15 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> But I didn't think full production was to commence until June, so everything until then should have been part production......so it still makes no sense. Is trading going to commence tomorrow or is it still Monday. I'm very keen to see where it goes




Nah it definitely isn't full production until June - my understanding it was a lower rate up until then, and a higher cost of production too. But even so, NPV at the reduced rate places RED SP significantly higher than $2.30


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## mgm1a (15 March 2012)

something not adding up - 
qtrly 31/12 ="process plant build complete" meaning the costs should have been accrued in the half year accounts.
Also mentioned final cost US$87 and "further $10m build costs to be presented in the MArch 2012 qtr"

ann 28/2 = final cost US$87M

qtrly cashflow 31/12 - the forecast on page 3 shows the estimated cashflow for the MArch qtr - OK there's the $10m showing as $9.3 m but the other admin/prod costs showing $2.9m but today's preso says we have dropped by $10.7 (20.7 -10 as per preso) ALREADY, with 2 weeks to go. 

Surely the variations on the extra workarounds/mechanical handling wouldn't be $7m ish?

What has blown out?? Its not the stated capex.....and the Company Insight 28/2 didn't divulge although perhaps by omission when GE didn't fully respond to the very final question; "What is your current funding position and major expected expenditure"

The delays has accelerated beyond what I thought would affect final cash position given that they were to be cashing in on production- sure they had glitch but now we have no money left for Mapawa exploration, too? 

The shortfall can be covered by the Sprott credit card

Starting to falter in my faith in management..........

Slide 10 of the preso shows the $25m capex required for 2013 - for underground work which is obviously being brought forward from 2014 which also explains the need for the raising sometime this year


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## mrlister (15 March 2012)

.....


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## Boggo (15 March 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> but i have noticed that a lot of comparable stocks have been hit with strong institutional selling over the past week - .




I would be interested in which stocks you consider _ comparable stocks have been hit with strong institutional selling over the past week _.

Just trying to get a picture of what you guys are using as a comparison.

Regarding all the posts where tech/a calls a spade a tool for digging holes and you newbies get yourselves all defensive, I would suggest that you kiddies take notice of the clues and you will rapidly reduce the the risk of being dependant on Gus and his poggy stuff to save you regardless of which stock you might be involved in.

He is very economical with words but will go out of his way to help anyone.

There is a new book out as of last week that has a chapter dedicated to tech/a and what he achieved over a few years with a relatively small start up account, worth having a read of, it may be in your interests to chip in and get Gus a copy too.

You are shooting the messenger guys, listen and learn, not liking the message is not a reason to go on the attack. Another few years of constantly getting tied up in one stock and only listening to what you want to hear from those who have a vested interest will eventually result in you arriving at the realisation that you are going round in circles and getting nowhere and are dependant or others.

This RED bulldust could go either way and there are some that could end up in more trouble than the first settlers, believe me, this is not how you make money in this or any market.

Most of us techies are armed and ready if RED gives the signal but to us it is just another stock and a way to make money with our own abilities rather than being at the mercy of the Gus's of this world, been there, done that 15 years ago.

Just my  that will probably attract the usual nonsense rather than taking a deep breath and thinking about what is being said rather than getting defensive when people are stating the obvious that is perceived as an attack on you personally.


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## mrlister (15 March 2012)

Boggo, I'm one those newbies, and I have responded once regarding his social skills, and probably unfairly too now that I've seen much more if the banter. 

When it comes to trading im 100% in agreeance with his methods, and every technical post is a lesson. 

But lets not kid ourselves, he certainly is a much better trader than a comedian!!


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## Boggo (15 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> When it comes to trading im 100% in agreeance with his methods, and every technical post is a lesson.
> 
> But lets not kid ourselves, he certainly is a much better trader than a comedian!!




Yes, probably got to agree on both points 

From a fundamental perspective and only out of personal interest, what is a summary the general consensus of all the items/opinions that are in endless supply regarding RED. There seems to be too much info but yet not enough, is this the case ?


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## mrlister (15 March 2012)

i really have no clue I just got a bit lucky with RED. But the love affair appears to be coming to a close


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## beatle (15 March 2012)

Hi All, well its been an interesting day all round for RED and posters on the RED thread! Mind you its not that great to face a Trading Halt that has come out of the blue with a capital raising, and seems that the rumour is that its a raising of $25 million priced at $2.12, if its bedded down. And related to Siana only, both as a prudent addition to working capital plus some ooomph to get exploration kick started ahead of what it could have possibly have been if from internal funds!

Mgm1a, from what I can understand whilst yes the capex for the plant and first round capitalised mining was close to budget, RED continues to add substantial capitalised mining from the pit, and this has resulted in an increased cost of that waste removal. It will result in an aggressive mining of the pit waste ahead of schedule and thus will substantially benefit mine scheduling from the substantially increased pit ore faces being opened up. 

Additionally the cash on hand at Dec 31 was misleading as it didn't have to cover some invoices that were yet to be presented as part of the overall cost at that time, and have now been provided for. I guess its an accounting issue which clearly you have a better idea of if given all the information.   

MrLister, Watty has covered it pretty well, that whilst the commissioning period is a phase of production, its a period when there is a gradual increase in production as the plant circuitry is working on increasing production, and operating criteria is established and optimised. And from a mining perspective, there is a gradual pick up in the mining of waste and ore to build up stockpiles for processing. And remembering that Siana is now coming out of a wet season that has in the past season been a difficult time for building of the plant and will likely have a problem for initial mining wet there are very wet conditions. That period should now be largely behind Siana  until next season, about Dec/Jan end of this year and early next year.

Boggo, interesting that you passed on your brothers comments for all us to read, did you pass on my invitation as well, lol?

I believe its most likely that the TH will continue until first thing monday morning, the CR will likely include some big hitters from overseas and those discussions will be happening tonight presumably.


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## beatle (16 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Settle petal dont take things so seriously. Thats why a had a lol after it and besides that i haven't had anything negative to say about RED only positives.
> Relevance? Just interested in who they had a J/V in Australia as i red it somewhere but thought you'd know off hand. Cheers buddy




Oh I forgot to reply to Jancha, and sorry if my reply sounded a bit harsh, in fact I didn't mean to do that. As I mentioned, I didn't have an issue with your posts at all, and actually I wasn't referring to you at all when I was referring to very negative posts. (And of course even if I had an issue with your or anyone's posts it isn't relevant, I don't own this thread anyway).

At the end of the day we are all trying to spread our views for whatever purpose we might be motivated for regarding RED. And up front, even though it might not sound like it to all the observers, I am not just interested in putting RED up there in lights although yes I have a stack of shares in it, so I tend to be more positive than negative with my view - but then thats why i have a stack of shares in it still! 

For me its also about trying to provide a means to get across information about the company and its activities that I might have a view of or knowledge of due to my long following of the company, and since I don't work nowadays I have time on my hands to do it. Some of that, especially things more involved with PR of the company, is something that should be done by the company, but its not being done so well IMO, and I prefer to be a facilitator if I can help. 

Of course that fact that I have no tie up also means that I might be able to say things that company management can find difficult to say without being on shaky grounds as a director/manager of the company. (You can take that last point any way that you might like of course).


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## mgm1a (16 March 2012)

beatle said:


> whilst yes the capex for the plant and first round capitalised mining was close to budget, RED continues to add substantial capitalised mining from the pit, and this has resulted in an increased cost of that waste removal. It will result in an aggressive mining of the pit waste ahead of schedule .




beatle - they repeatedly said capex $US87 - so they can't be a case of adding "substantial capitalised mining" - that would be operating costs, so would "mining the pit"

The slide I mentioned with 2013 capex seems to be what they want to start fairly soon and have cash on hand to do so, rather than wait for gold production to convert to cash....there may be contracts & equipment requiring substantial up front payments to initiate.


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## mr. jeff (16 March 2012)

sorry not time now but these are a couple boggo. Definitely large volumes going through. No other wasted words from me though I have nothing to argue about.


----------



## Wa11y (16 March 2012)

Boggo said:


> I would be interested in which stocks you consider _ comparable stocks have been hit with strong institutional selling over the past week _.
> 
> Just trying to get a picture of what you guys are using as a comparison.
> 
> ...




I wouldn't have thought I was getting defensive, I appreciate the posts about TA, just not the ones about fundamentals where it's been acknowledged there's no interest (ignorant comments about mine operations, first gold pour etc) - that's where my frustration was.


----------



## beatle (16 March 2012)

mgm1a said:


> beatle - they repeatedly said capex $US87 - so they can't be a case of adding "substantial capitalised mining" - that would be operating costs, so would "mining the pit"
> 
> The slide I mentioned with 2013 capex seems to be what they want to start fairly soon and have cash on hand to do so, rather than wait for gold production to convert to cash....there may be contracts & equipment requiring substantial up front payments to initiate.




Hi Mgm1a, I take your point and to be honest my accounting knowledge is not adequate to be able to argue on treatment of particular cost allocations. 

My understanding is, and it may be incorrect, that since the commissioning was extended considerably, there was a decision to increase waste removal rather than concentrate on the rate required for the scheduled start up mining phase. The primary reason is that since the production didn't occur as expected due to delays in commissioning there is simply not enough room on the ROM stockpile to accomodate what would have been a substantial buildup of ROM ore. Thus as an accounting treatment they have capitalised the cost of that additional waste removal rather than consider it a current operating expense. And that is why we should see a considerable reduction in waste mining in the coming years! I may be wrong with that interpretation, and if what I have said isn't making sense then maybe you should ask Joe.


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## mrlister (16 March 2012)

beatle...you either have someone on the inside, or your a great novelist!!


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## beatle (16 March 2012)

Nah, I'm just a caring sort of guy MrLister! (But from time to time I visit the mine to see how the development is going - that is not inside information, I never trade on or ever get any inside edges from my association/knowledge with/of RED).

PS Regardless of the accounting treatment of the current mining, from an operating point of view its a fantastic situation to have a choice of so many different ore exposures to optimise ore blend in terms of physical and grade characteristics, provided access is possible. thus whilst the pit scheduling becomes complex the flexibility it provides is great for the operation.


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## fwpike (16 March 2012)

As I understand it so far 18,000 ounces to be mined as of 1st July then and more each day. At even  $1000 per ounce profit I make that $18,000,000. (Am I missing something?)  So why a capital raising? I am very very uncomfortable at the thought that once again the retail investors are to be shafted while some "professional investors" buy in just when the going ahead looks good, thus diluting our shareholdings. You wusses out there allowed this last time, get ready for a repeat performance.
Hey Beatle, next time you go, if you would like some company please advise.


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## beatle (16 March 2012)

Yes I understand that there should still be something like $18 million profit this financial year Fwpike, but if its as I understand it, at a 7% discount to the last sale price, and thus some 11.7 million odd shares, ie less than 15% then it can be done as a placement without any shareholder approval being sought. 

I understand its more about cash liquidity and it does accelerate the exploration as well. The irony is it might end up back in our lap as a dividend later.


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## fwpike (16 March 2012)

My understanding is that it can only be done *again* this year because when the last placement was approved management asked for another bite later at the same time. Why anyone voted for that is a mystery to me.  I prefer to vote on knowns rather than unknowns.


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## beatle (16 March 2012)

Well all the past capital raisings in the past 12 months have been ratified so there is now 15% available without shareholder approval.


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## Nasser (16 March 2012)

Its all part of "the game" placement to instos & brokers mates who then vote at AGMs for directors increased remuneration packages, who then make another placement & on it goes. Meanwhile the retail shareholder sits on their diluted holdings.

Tech/a has read the current position beautifully imo


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## fwpike (16 March 2012)

Beautifully put Nasser.


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## beatle (16 March 2012)

Yeah, actually I understand and agree with you both, except its unfortunately a characteristic of the game called "the stock market". And it applies to all companies, not just RED.

But what you must recognise is that a capacity to "place" shares on short notice, is a very efficient means to raise cash, provided you have the relationships to be able to do it. 

And RED is fortunately in that its shareholder base has considerable depth in terms of capital raising capability and in fact this placement (if done at $2.12) is considerably above the price that might otherwise have been achieved. Of course its frustrating, but its a fact of life. 

I personally, as a shareholder (and not insignificant, and similar I would imagine as you Fwpike knowing your previous holding that you have mentioned you have reduced from) don't feel concerned about the dilution, more frustrated than anything more - those new shares won't be placed to groups that will be dumping them on day 1 like you see with some of the retail brokers who give out to sub-underwriters who trade them out day 1.


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## Nasser (16 March 2012)

G'day Beatle, your right the game is called the stock market & i think most of us understand that. 
If directors were doing their job properly there would be no need to quickly raise funds & they could place some of the CR with shareholders. The offer price to shareholders may be less than what the instos pay, but what about offering something to loyal shareholders. Also shareholders are more than likely to hold onto their holding longer than "brokers mates".

Unfortunately imo directors often take the lazy way out & listen to the bankers etc who come knocking on the door. Not suggesting that happened here.

Also i would think that long term shareholders would be less concerned about dilution than newer shareholders.


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## fwpike (16 March 2012)

Shareholders as voters get the Government they deserve. A vote was taken on the previous two insto placements, they were approved, as was the reloading for another go. Hard to blame management in those circumstances. 
There were some doozy wussy arguments as to why shareholders voted this way as I recall . A general feeling  of "or else the sky might fall in".


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## beatle (16 March 2012)

Nasser said:


> G'day Beatle, your right the game is called the stock market & i think most of us understand that.
> If directors were doing their job properly there would be no need to quickly raise funds & they could place some of the CR with shareholders. The offer price to shareholders may be less than what the instos pay, but what about offering something to loyal shareholders. Also shareholders are more than likely to hold onto their holding longer than "brokers mates".
> 
> Unfortunately imo directors often take the lazy way out & listen to the bankers etc who come knocking on the door. Not suggesting that happened here.
> ...




Again I agree with you on a number of points, but not sure that small shareholders are apt to hold any longer than an insto.

I would say that whilst the concept of offering shares to existing shareholders via a rights issue or share purchase plan sounds most fair, there are a number of issues from that route, and as a shareholder I am dead against both of them for a few reasons:
1. It puts a cap on the share price most of the time for the duration of the issue, as you know that issue is in the wind, and it takes a considerable number of weeks to have it done.

2. Even if its been underwritten there is no guarantee for the funds being raised if offered to existing shareholders. And thus you are at the whims of the market immediately before the last trading day for application of funds. Thus any urgent need of funds is just not possible to be achieved.

3. The possible cheaper pricing of the rights issue is almost always offset by any under-writing, and those underwritings have so many holes in them you can still be unsure your company will get the funds.

I much prefer a company get on with the job, do the deal, pay the subbies their fees and start moving the company forward.

What I would say, that is a negative in this instance, is that RED has not done any significant promotions immediately prior to this CR and thus it has possibly not got the best price for the shares before negotiating the pricing of this placement (if our rumour mill is correct in pricing it at $2.12), BUT actually based on the last sale price of $2.27 its not a bad discount which could easily have been as low as 20% below of $2.27 (say $1.82) on last price, either by a rights issue etc or usual placement).


----------



## mrlister (16 March 2012)

the open estimate on monday is now at 2.38 with 3.8 million shares wanting to be purchased??

what the hell is going on??


----------



## Chasero (16 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> the open estimate on monday is now at 2.38 with 3.8 million shares wanting to be purchased??
> 
> what the hell is going on??




I wouldn't worry about bids and ask prices when shares are in a halt.

They are not accurate and are usually taken down once market is opened.

E.g. Bids for Lynas were at ridiculous prices after one of it's halts. Same as GNS. What matters most is opening price, not the bids pre-market.


----------



## mrlister (16 March 2012)

yeah but this is one buyer for 3.8 mill.


----------



## skyQuake (16 March 2012)

skyQuake said:


> imo 222 here is a decent buy into Fri's S&P reweight and Market Vectors reweight.
> Oh and gap fill too.






mrlister said:


> the open estimate on monday is now at 2.38 with 3.8 million shares wanting to be purchased??
> 
> what the hell is going on??




As I said before. Market Vectors reweight. It'll probably get pulled monday morning and get done as vwap or crossing. Thats the only positive thing going for it atm.
rumour is the CR looks really crap atm


----------



## Chasero (16 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> yeah but this is one buyer for 3.8 mill. surely that is a institution of sorts telling people....ok you wanna sell out...ill give ya 2.38 now to piss off!!




There was someone with a 850k bid for NWE at 0.068 the other day.

i.e. if you look at the spread, it was around 20k shares at 0.069 then millions at 0.068.

People try to "push" the price up or try to get attention by placing ridiculous bids all the time, for whatever reason.


----------



## fwpike (16 March 2012)

skyQuake said:


> rumour is the CR looks really crap atm




What exactly is meant by this please Skyquake


----------



## tech/a (16 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> the open estimate on monday is now at 2.38 with 3.8 million shares wanting to be purchased??
> 
> what the hell is going on??




You might want to check that opening estimate.


----------



## skyQuake (16 March 2012)

fwpike said:


> What exactly is meant by this please Skyquake




Capital raising looks pretty crap.
Good news is there nearly isn't any borrow available, so even if insto takes up cheap stock at 2.12 they cant immediately dump it 



tech/a said:


> You might want to check that opening estimate.
> 
> View attachment 46444




Still looks like 2.38 match, 2mil match, 1,8mil unmatched.


----------



## mrlister (16 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> You might want to check that opening estimate.
> 
> View attachment 46444




can you dumb down what exactly this means?

cos i thought that 1.75 was just a conditional order that is visible now that the market has closed.


----------



## beatle (16 March 2012)

I don't agree that $2.12 is a crap price for this capital raising for precisely the reasons i referred to before, and whilst its a shame its being done at least it provides more working capital for RED going forward with production and exploration.

Whilst that estimate of opening next Monday will of course depend who is prepared to Bid at the front on open, not related to any dodgy Bids that are there now. BUT I think it does signify that someone has got the financial wherewithall to place that Bid! You couldn't do that, even as a pose if you didn't have the cash up front! That's another reason for it great to be a placement by insto's who can put support the after placement market!

IMO whilst the opening price is uncertain, the likelihood is that the price will move UP soon after, of course how far is subject to there being no huge fall off in the gold price.


----------



## Wa11y (16 March 2012)

Why did a trade go through today?

Time
Price ($)
Volume
Value ($)
Condition
4:56:36 PM	2.269	10,337	23,453.619	SX XT


----------



## Starcraftmazter (16 March 2012)

Wa11y said:


> Why did a trade go through today?
> 
> Time
> Price ($)
> ...




That would be the capital raising I would imagine. SX = special sale portfolio and XT = cross broker trade.


----------



## fwpike (16 March 2012)

beatle said:


> BUT I think it does signify that someone has got the financial wherewithall to place that Bid! You couldn't do that, even as a pose if you didn't have the cash up front! .



I don't understand this Beatle. Who would know whether or not I have the cash to buy an order that will be cancelled before it is executed? I quite often have to move money into my account to cover a trade.


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## beatle (16 March 2012)

Are you telling me that your financial standing with your broker, regardless of it being a retail broker or internet broker, is so strong that they would allow you to put on a single Bid worth around $9 million?


----------



## Wa11y (16 March 2012)

Interesting stat: 92% of IG Markets clients with a CFD position on RED believe it will rise.


----------



## mrlister (16 March 2012)

Of course it will rise, thd question is how far it will fall beforehand


----------



## Starcraftmazter (16 March 2012)

Wa11y said:


> Interesting stat: 92% of IG Markets clients with a CFD position on RED believe it will rise.




100% of the people taking a long position on anything in 2008 thought it will rise.


----------



## Wa11y (17 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> 100% of the people taking a long position on anything in 2008 thought it will rise.




No, 'open positions'. 92% of those with open positions have LONG positions (feel a bit foolish now?) Obviously this would have been prior to halt but thought it was interesting anyway.


----------



## beatle (17 March 2012)

IF the Bid of 3.8 million shares at $2.38 remains till even the last few minutes prior to opening after the Trading Halt I'm sure it will give traders something to think about. I would say it does send an alarm bell for anyone who has got used to the range trading in RED, ie Buy at anything below $2.30-2.35 and sell once in that range, then do it ad infinitum! I would say that we might be testing new highs if that Bid remains till just before the TH is lifted, but my belief remains that until we get some confirmatory information about production to date that the range trading will continue - I'm happy to be wrong though......


----------



## Chasero (17 March 2012)

Traders only look at bids after the price has opened.

NST opened at ~98c and closed around 98c, look at it's price now 86 cents.

Capital raisings send a very foul and bitter message to the markets as people get trapped long or shares float around the C/R price for a few months (depending on the stock)

A lot of traders will be exiting trades on Monday. Testing new highs? Interesting, but I don't see it. I don't think RED is on the same level as MAD unfortunately... 

Realistically, as long as it does not break $2 then RED is good to go. If it breaks $2, look out below


----------



## beatle (17 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> ....
> 
> A lot of traders will be exiting trades on Monday. Testing new highs? Interesting, but I don't see it. I don't think RED is on the same level as MAD unfortunately...




An interesting view Chasero, and of course it does depend upon what that opening price is (and is it going to be temporarily suspended first or open on monday morning!). 

In fact I'm hoping that it opens on Monday, at a reduction to last price traded cos I do believe we are on the cusp of an entirely new trading price move altogether, so I think its going to be the last chance to get some discount shares!. And yes, I have cried wolf a few (hundred, lol) times so far, but realistically we are not far off with full scale production being underway due 1 April (I really wish they had said 2 April, lol).

Oh, you can quote me later if I'm wrong, but then I've got a thick hide.


----------



## skyQuake (17 March 2012)

Bid's gone lol.
Would have loved to sell into that


----------



## tech/a (17 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> can you dumb down what exactly this means?
> 
> cos i thought that 1.75 was just a conditional order that is visible now that the market has closed.




Thought Id have some fun with beatle.
Its gone now!!
Strange really.


----------



## fastbuck1 (17 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Thought Id have some fun with beatle.
> Its gone now!!
> Strange really.




whats strange is the small parcle of shares that where alowd to go through, any ideas????or is it mates doing favours...


----------



## Starcraftmazter (17 March 2012)

Wa11y said:


> No, 'open positions'. 92% of those with open positions have LONG positions (feel a bit foolish now?) Obviously this would have been prior to halt but thought it was interesting anyway.




Not as foolish as the 92% of IG Markets clients who had a long position just before a capital raising.


----------



## Chasero (18 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Not as foolish as the 92% of IG Markets clients who had a long position just before a capital raising.




Does it not matter their entry price?

Who knows most of them could have gone long @ $1.70-$1.80 avg and still be green after this.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (18 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> Does it not matter their entry price?
> 
> Who knows most of them could have gone long @ $1.70-$1.80 avg and still be green after this.




I should hope so, however that is a poor way to look at trading.


----------



## Chasero (18 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> I should hope so, however that is a poor way to look at trading.




Well no one can predict a C/R...

And it's too risky to go long or short a share thats at its all time highs

That's why I doubt any of them have gone long above $2.


----------



## tech/a (18 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> I should hope so, however that is a poor way to look at trading.




That---is trading!




> And it's too risky to go long or short a share thats at its all time highs




It is?
Why?


----------



## mrlister (18 March 2012)

MAD only a few months ago was at all time highs at 0.40c


----------



## Wa11y (18 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> I should hope so, however that is a poor way to look at trading.




I know this has been responded to already, but someone is foolish and a poor trader because they have gone long on RED and didn't see a CR coming? 

Is this your premise? 

Really?

Keep in mind there are such thing as guaranteed stops for instances like this.


----------



## beatle (19 March 2012)

Hi Guys, a few important questions to be asked of RED at the beginning of this week:

Will RED seek a temporary suspension at the open this morning to get a day or so to finish its CR?

Once it does come on-line:

What price will RED open at? 
Will the placees support the price from the outset?
Was that dodgy bid of $2.38 an indication of strength at the commencement or pure bluff?
Will RED put out another announcement so soon regarding its production to date?

I'm sure there will be some interested observers...


----------



## mrlister (19 March 2012)

temporary suspension in place.

i think there will be more nervous investors than interested observers.

2.38 goneski and bluffski


----------



## beatle (19 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> temporary suspension in place.
> 
> i think there will be more nervous investors than interested observers.
> 
> 2.38 goneski and bluffski




Why nervous?.

The suspension is being sought to complete legal documentation regarding the book build which has now closed. Thus the money is just about in the tin. (And if not done yet I understand it was over-subscribed by certain investors).

The pricing I guess is yet to be confirmed, but whatever, it should go up once the things are bedded down - no insto will sit back without supporting its placement IMO!

I just want them announce some production.


----------



## Nasser (19 March 2012)

And these blokes got a pay rise!!!


----------



## mrlister (19 March 2012)

beatle said:


> Why nervous?.
> 
> The suspension is being sought to complete legal documentation regarding the book build which has now closed. Thus the money is just about in the tin. (And if not done yet I understand it was over-subscribed by certain investors).
> 
> ...





ever the optimist. but this whole sage is making a lot of investors nervous. not all have  years to wait to see some return for their investment.


----------



## beatle (19 March 2012)

Nasser said:


> And these blokes got a pay rise!!!




Don't tell me I was wrong, that there are triplets, not twins, lol! 


eh MrLister, this sort of stuff is good for one's constitution  

Don't worry, RED shareholders will be fine, believe me (I'm a caring sort of guy!).


----------



## Starcraftmazter (19 March 2012)

Wa11y said:


> I know this has been responded to already, but someone is foolish and a poor trader because they have gone long on RED and didn't see a CR coming?
> 
> Is this your premise?
> 
> Really?




??

No I said I think it's a poor way to look at trading if - you buy at some price, the sp goes up a lot and then retraces back a lot and you're still in the green...but the profit is much smaller than it could have been - and to be ok with that.

I for one would not be ok with that. I'd be pretty damn mad.


----------



## tech/a (19 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> ??
> 
> No I said I think it's a poor way to look at trading if - you buy at some price, the sp goes up a lot and then retraces back a lot and you're still in the green...but the profit is much smaller than it could have been - and to be ok with that.
> 
> I for one would not be OK with that. I'd be pretty damn mad.




Well I for another one wouldn't be if I was on a longer time frame.
It happens.
Its called Peak to Valley draw down. If like our local fab Four member (Beatle) and you have an extended time frame than you'll suffer a lot of these. 

If your a shorter time frame trader you'll get caught now and again.
Its how you handle these draw downs which will measure your 
longterm success.

You can manage them with all sorts of stops or you can ride them out.
But when a Peak to Valley draw down turns into a capital base draw down as in loss
your either really really un lucky with your timing or you have no idea about risk management and risk mitigation.


----------



## Chasero (19 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> That---is trading!
> 
> 
> 
> ...




RED has been at around $2.30 in 10 years. How many times now, 3 times? (someone correct me if i'm wrong, too lazy to look up chart)

Anyone going long RED at $2.30 for a 'potential breakout'? Not likely. (for short term traders)

Need to see signs of a breakout first.

i.e. resistance @ 2.30 range too strong.


Unless a share has trend traded, e.g. NST RRL, I do not buy shares at their all time highs.


----------



## tech/a (19 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> RED has been at around $2.30 in 10 years. How many times now, 3 times? (someone correct me if i'm wrong, too lazy to look up chart)
> 
> Anyone going long RED at $2.30 for a 'potential breakout'? Not likely. (for short term traders)
> 
> ...






> And it's too risky to go long *or short *a share thats at its all time highs





Ok not that I agree but the highlighted bit why wouldnt you go short at resistance---you could do it with CFD's.


----------



## Chasero (19 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Ok not that I agree but the highlighted bit why wouldnt you go short at resistance---you could do it with CFD's.




So you would happily go long RED at $2.30?

About shorting RED at $2.30, I wouldn't do that either. Because of fundamental factors and that it is being added to the asx 300.

If RED didn't have the C/R, I'd bet it'd still be stuck in its trading range of $2.15 - 2.30. Again, too much risk for reward.

Your thoughts?


----------



## Starcraftmazter (19 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Ok not that I agree but the highlighted bit why wouldnt you go short at resistance---you could do it with CFD's.




Wouldn't it be safer if it's just rejected resistance, say at 2.25 for RED and ride it down to support?


----------



## fastbuck1 (19 March 2012)

beatle said:


> Why nervous?.
> 
> The suspension is being sought to complete legal documentation regarding the book build which has now closed. Thus the money is just about in the tin. (And if not done yet I understand it was over-subscribed by certain investors).
> 
> ...



 hey i hope there not asking for 20 mil, then the thing is over subsrcibe by 20 mil and they decide to take it ?????????


----------



## Wa11y (19 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> So you would happily go long RED at $2.30?
> 
> About shorting RED at $2.30, I wouldn't do that either. Because of fundamental factors and that it is being added to the asx 300.
> 
> ...




I went long at 2.30 2 days before C/R halt, mainly for fundamental reasons, happy to ride out some movements. But obviously not overly happy about the C/R, but that happens.

Also risk inherently is lower with RED than most specs. They have assets. They own a mine. If production is delayed further they will drop, but it shouldn't be overly dramatic. Ie. If at end of April, production is delayed, SP will suffer, but not as much as it will gain if they announce they are at full production, which will move SP more closely in line with NPV.


----------



## tech/a (19 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> So you would happily go long RED at $2.30?
> 
> About shorting RED at $2.30, I wouldn't do that either. Because of fundamental factors and that it is being added to the asx 300.
> 
> ...




Well I'm not trading it and have discussed what I'd do if long
But as you say doing nothing much
So won't bs interested on doing anything with this unless price indicates opportunity

With either s break out or a strong rejection of a test to the low side


----------



## Buckfont (20 March 2012)

I have just had my order removed from the market under `Order Purged.`

I have never heard of this term. Can someone please explain what it means as a can`t seem to find it on the ASX site. Thanks Bf.


----------



## mr. jeff (20 March 2012)

Happens after 30 days or if you make your order good for day, or other conditions which are met which means that your order is automatically pulled....


----------



## Buckfont (20 March 2012)

Thanks mr jeff. Must be due to the suspension.


----------



## beatle (20 March 2012)

Buckfont said:


> I have just had my order removed from the market under `Order Purged.`
> 
> I have never heard of this term. Can someone please explain what it means as a can`t seem to find it on the ASX site. Thanks Bf.




Actually Buckfont any share that goes into suspension (ie not TH) have all share orders removed and the market is started from scratch. Thus the reason for your order being removed.

Wow, what an open and OMG. I didn't have that much money spare but got a few more, gee I'm glad my missus is still asleep having coffee! IMO (not others of course) this current price is a real opportunity. I was too slow to get the real low ones, I got it slightly below the placement price.

Gold/silver dore due to be shipped to Switzerland later this month, March. Commissioning expected to be finally over in early April and commercial production thereafter. Clearly those are very positive statements that suggest things onsite are going well.

Oh, and it wasn't $25 million but $15 million.


----------



## tech/a (20 March 2012)

Wow

This must be a *HUGE *buying opportunity for some here.

So Whos buying?

Are we there yet?
(The right time to buy these)


----------



## Wa11y (20 March 2012)

beatle said:


> Actually Buckfont any share that goes into suspension (ie not TH) have all share orders removed and the market is started from scratch. Thus the reason for your order being removed.
> 
> Wow, what an open and OMG. I didn't have that much money spare but got a few more, gee I'm glad my missus is still asleep having coffee! IMO (not others of course) this current price is a real opportunity. I was too slow to get the real low ones, I got it slightly below the placement price.
> 
> ...




Yeah went long again at $2.10


----------



## tech/a (20 March 2012)

Why?
Whats your current average?


----------



## Starcraftmazter (20 March 2012)

It's a bit hard to figure out what's going to happen since gold stocks were smashed when RED was suspended, so how much of this fall is due to that and how much is due to the capital raising and how much more to come?

Last few times I remember a capital raising, it's always more than one day's worth of falls. That being said, the price of the raising with RED was a lot closer to sp beforehand then with other companies (say NST).


----------



## fwpike (20 March 2012)

beatle said:


> Oh, and it wasn't $25 million but $15 million.



More accurately it was $15 million less an unstated amount of fees etc.  I find that quite annoying.


----------



## skyQuake (20 March 2012)

I am. its cheap 

No really it is. Rebal buying couldnt get done last fri so must be done today imo.


----------



## tech/a (20 March 2012)

skyQuake said:


> I am. its cheap
> 
> No really it is. Rebal buying couldnt get done last fri so must be done today imo.




I started posting here when it was 0.18c (1.80 with the 10:1 Consolidation)
it was considered by pretty well all here cheap then.
Since then its been $2.40 to $1.20 It was considered by all then that it was cheap.

It appears that this is good buying fundamentally at ANY PRICE under resistance.
The caveat being that the FUNDIES expect price to go to $3.00.
So buy under $3 and make a profit.---is what it seems.

Me a techie cant see a buy at this point---have no idea how low it could go(nothing indicated chart wise yet) and no idea how high it could go(nothing indicated Chart wise yet).
But I do know that right now there isn't any interest in this stock and hasn't been a lot of interest in this stock since my first look here.
Despite massive amounts of written optimism and "Fact" Im not seeing a willingness to support this stock---demand.
Mind you 100% between $1.20 and $2.40 there is a drink here and have had a couple.

So for my liking a buy is closer to $1.20 than it is $2.40
Hence Ill watch.---until something in the chart says "BUY ME."



> Rebal buying couldnt get done last fri so must be done today imo.




I hope this is not the case for you guys if buying stops then whats going to drive price tomorrow and beyond?


----------



## skc (20 March 2012)

skyQuake said:


> I am. its cheap
> 
> No really it is. Rebal buying couldnt get done last fri so must be done today imo.




So the production guidance ~75k oz per year, cash cost ~$350/oz, cap-ex ~$10m, so with gold @ say $1600, annual FCF ~$80m. 

Mine life ~10 years. 

Current share price would yield IRR ~34% p.a. Alternately, a 15% NPV of the 10 year cashflow ~$3.8 per share. 

Upside being further exploration extending the mine life.

Downside being production problems and gold price falling.

Comments?

Does that sound about right?


----------



## skyQuake (20 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> I started posting here when it was 0.18c (1.80 with the 10:1 Consolidation)
> it was considered by pretty well all here cheap then.
> Since then its been $2.40 to $1.20 It was considered by all then that it was cheap.
> 
> ...




Agree with you tech, any timeframe past 1 day looks pretty crap. Cap raising price at $2.12 wasnt attractive enough to get $25m of stock. Only $15m got done and they called it a day. Weakness? Definitely. 

Technically, it looks fantastic.
Just kidding. It looks a bit dodgy. Could fill gap, could crash and burn.

However today is index flow day, plus the fact that the placement shares have not settled, should bode well for RED at least for a short while.


----------



## skyQuake (20 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> I hope this is not the case for you guys if buying stops then whats going to drive price tomorrow and beyond?




Wouldn't care because I would be out today regardless. Just a systematic trade nothing more.



skc said:


> So the production guidance ~75k oz per year, cash cost ~$350/oz, cap-ex ~$10m, so with gold @ say $1600, annual FCF ~$80m.
> 
> Mine life ~10 years.
> 
> ...




I'd think there are a fair few comparable juniors off the radar. Midcap and junior golds are getting smashed (even those with incredibly low costs). People are just playing it as a high beta exposure to gold


----------



## tech/a (20 March 2012)

So they are a tad short on the capital raising $10 million.
So now what---- they finance the rest.
What if they cant get it.
They "can" some ideas?
Further hold ups
Delays
Promises.
Dont do something?

Take a wage cut?????
Call Beatle!!!


----------



## Nasser (20 March 2012)

"Take a wage cut?????"

thats a classic tech/a. Like your style


----------



## tech/a (20 March 2012)

*From a short term technical view*

Im watching this current bar--*today*--very carefully

After a strong gap down it is battling with supply currently.
A close in the top 15% of the bar would be a possible short term long trade with a stop at $2.06
If it closes middle or less then I would pass it up.
Risk is closing of the gap or part closing and a resumption of downside.
But there is a possible setup there volume is high relative to past weeks.

Low risk with some R/R if it pans out.
In my view.


----------



## Boggo (20 March 2012)

skyQuake said:


> I'd think there are a fair few comparable juniors off the radar. *Midcap and junior golds are getting smashed* (even those with incredibly low costs). People are just playing it as a high beta exposure to gold




The first three goldies that I just looked at are doing ok, AGS, ALK and PXG (I hold one of them and the other two are on a watchlist). All three of those also have a negative Price to Earnings ratio as does RED.
Which ones are you referring to ?




tech/a said:


> So for my liking a buy is closer to $1.20 than it is $2.40
> Hence Ill watch.---until something in the chart says "BUY ME."




Strong indications of a turnaround in the area highlighted on the chart below might get my attention if there is nothing else around at the time with better behaviour, or a clear breakout above 2.40.
At the moment it is a case of putting your chips on the red or black.

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo (20 March 2012)

Just slightly off topic for a moment.

Below is a chart of PXG, a 20 cent speccy too, anyone see any pattern simialiarities to RED ?

(click to expand)


----------



## jancha (20 March 2012)

Yes it is really off the topic Boggo and you got that part right. I'm sure there'd be similar charts with the price going the otherway. Can you post one of them up to be fair?


----------



## Boggo (20 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Yes it is *really* off the topic Boggo and you got that part right. I'm sure there'd be similar charts with the price going the otherway. Can you post one of them up to be fair?




Actually not quite, I said *slightly*.

Apart from the last leg down where PXG is ahead of RED they are almost identical - if thats ok


----------



## skyQuake (20 March 2012)

Last chance to selllll!


----------



## jancha (20 March 2012)

Boggo said:


> Actually not quite, I said *slightly*.
> 
> Apart from the last leg down where PXG is ahead of RED they are almost identical - if thats ok




Why didn't you answer the question?
Interesting buy of 1,000,000 @ $2.20. wonder if it stays.


----------



## jancha (20 March 2012)

skyQuake said:


> Last chance to selllll!




Why? Couple of big buyers @ $2.20 $2.15 close?


----------



## Boggo (20 March 2012)

jancha said:


> [/B]I'm sure there'd be *similar charts with the price going the otherway*. Can you post one of them up to be fair?






jancha said:


> Why didn't you answer the question?




Read your statement and you may see why, how can it be similiar if is going the other way


----------



## Boggo (20 March 2012)

Interesting comparison of buy volume vs sell volume !


----------



## jancha (20 March 2012)

Boggo said:


> Read your statement and you may see why, how can it be similiar if is going the other way




You know what i mean surely your not that dence.
Your showing the last leg down with PXG i'm sure you can go to a chart where the last leg has gone up with it still being similar in every other aspect.


----------



## Chasero (20 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Why didn't you answer the question?
> Interesting buy of 1,000,000 @ $2.20. wonder if it stays.




What happened to the $2.39 bid? or the other weird bids.

nothing.

Bids after market has closed aren't relevant...

What matters is bids after market has opened. It's so weird having people excited about fictitious bids. e.g. oh ther'es a bid for lynas for $2.00 at 1,000,000. It's going to open at $2 for sure!?

*opens at $1.20*


----------



## jancha (20 March 2012)

What i found interesting at the close of today was even tho there were a lot more sellers of smaller parcels there were 3 buyers @ 1,000,000+ shares each.


----------



## Boggo (20 March 2012)

jancha said:


> You know what i mean surely your not that dence.
> Your showing the last leg down with PXG i'm sure you can go to a chart where the last leg has gone up with it still being similar in every other aspect.




This could go on all day.

RED is going down, PXG went down.

When RED breaks out and goes up I will locate a *similiar* chart.

I am just comparing *similiar* patterns up to the last highs and what has happened (or in the case of RED may happen) since then.


----------



## Boggo (20 March 2012)

jancha said:


> What i found interesting at the close of today was even tho there were a lot more sellers of smaller parcels *there were 3 buyers @ 1,000,000+ shares each.*




But the fact that their combined effort only moved it up 1 cent from the last trade just before 4pm says a lot imo.


----------



## jancha (20 March 2012)

Boggo said:


> This could go on all day.
> 
> RED is going down, PXG went down.
> 
> ...




What find amusing (correct me if i'm wrong) is that your saying RED is going down by looking at a similar chart (PXG) but not necessarily as it could change and go up and retest 2.40?
I realise there are more sellers than buyers currently but what do you make of the 3 1,000,000 buys at the end of the day taking out the smaller sellers?


----------



## skyQuake (20 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> What happened to the $2.39 bid? or the other weird bids.
> 
> nothing.
> 
> Bids after market has closed aren't relevant...




As I said before, they're real. 1/2 vol done at vwap over day, 1/2 at close.



jancha said:


> What i found interesting at the close of today was even tho there were a lot more sellers of smaller parcels there were 3 buyers @ 1,000,000+ shares each.




Supply simply SURGED out of the woodworks once size came in. I sincerely doubt the size buyers will be returning.




jancha said:


> I realise there are more sellers than buyers currently but what do you make of the 3 1,000,000 buys at the end of the day taking out the smaller sellers?




They were eaten alive. I'd actually say the smaller sells taking out the big bids

ie. what boggo said


----------



## Chasero (20 March 2012)

skyQuake said:


> As I said before, they're real. 1/2 vol done at vwap over day, 1/2 at close.




So the instos get shares at VWAP?

half is always done? I never knew this. This means the avg for the day is $2.20 for this 1 entity?


----------



## skyQuake (20 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> So the instos get shares at VWAP?
> 
> half is always done? I never knew this. This means the avg for the day is $2.20 for this 1 entity?




approx figures. They're buying thru the day while trying to keep price impact low, so could be a fair bit more or less shares than they want. The end of day cleans up and remainder.

VWAP to the day is nowhere near $2.20? Its 2.1112 so not much difference to close.


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## tech/a (20 March 2012)

With the high volume and close below open
I'm with Boggo's analysis on RED


----------



## Buckfont (20 March 2012)

I`m out. Too much crappe here. I`ll take winnings and go elsewhere. Best of luck everyone. I`ll revisit when I feel I am not going to be taken for a ride.


----------



## Chasero (20 March 2012)

skyQuake said:


> As I said before, they're real. 1/2 vol done at vwap over day, 1/2 at close.




What were you referring to when you said they're real?

I was just pointing out that bids after market close, e.g. at $2.20 is unrealistic (refer to jancha's post)

Why would anyone want to buy RED today at $2.20 when the VWAP is around $2.11

Anyway, I don't know why ASF is so intrigued about RED. NDO and GXY more interesting in the past few days. And RMP too. Too bad not many people visit those threads.


----------



## Boggo (20 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> Anyway, I don't know why ASF is so intrigued about RED. NDO and GXY more interesting in the past few days. And RMP too. Too bad not many people visit those threads.




Not many people visit the SFX, SIH and TRF (more 20c speccies!)threads either but you may find the techies don't get involved in what management says so there is a bit less BS about what Gus says and more doing than talking = $.


----------



## mgm1a (20 March 2012)

skyquake - your're right! (never twigged until your post) that they only able to get $15m
No-one seems to comment on if its such a small amount why they couldn't access debt finance for that?


----------



## tech/a (20 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> So they are a tad short on the capital raising $10 million.
> So now what---- they finance the rest.
> What if they cant get it.
> They "can" some ideas?
> ...






mgm1a said:


> skyquake - your're right! (never twigged until your post) that they only able to get $15m
> No-one seems to comment on if its such a small amount why they couldn't access debt finance for that?




Yep small cap.
Might be trading at $2
But if it can't raise $25 million 
It's still seen as a small cap and
It doesn't say much about how it's 
Potential is seen does it?
If you were to believe all the hype
Of potential profit.

This capital raising would have been
Way over subscribed.
He'll I'm a dumb techie and I can
See that plain as day!


----------



## Wa11y (20 March 2012)

mgm1a said:


> skyquake - your're right! (never twigged until your post) that they only able to get $15m
> No-one seems to comment on if its such a small amount why they couldn't access debt finance for that?




There's been a lot of mention of RED Management seeking $25m, but only getting $15m. Where does it say this? Apart from this forum of course?

Because I can't see it anywhere.


----------



## jancha (20 March 2012)

Boggo said:


> Not many people visit the SFX, SIH and TRF (more 20c speccies!)threads either but you may find the techies don't get involved in what management says so there is a bit less BS about what Gus says and more doing than talking = $.




Boggo why would you compare RED to these 3 Companies. They are Explorers not producers. Do they have their own plant? Are they producing ?No.
One of them is lucky to average a volume of 500,000 in a days trade.
I can see why you trade with a stop loss. No offence.
Tomorrow it may fall but i cant see it dropping below $2 before heading back up.
We'll see.


----------



## beatle (21 March 2012)

mgm1a said:


> skyquake - your're right! (never twigged until your post) that they only able to get $15m
> No-one seems to comment on if its such a small amount why they couldn't access debt finance for that?




Hi Mgm1a, I refer to your comment about finalising a debt facility for the $15 million. Although its a more efficient means of adding some contingency to the working capital available, seems the banks are seeking excessive conditions to provide the finance (as evidenced by the Sprott facility that RED has apparently decided against pursuing due the conditions precedent to drawdown). 

I understand that RED finally accepted a lower total amount after it was agreed that the exploration is not essential and just the bolstering of the working capital was the way to go. Note that the first bullion sales won't be achieved before the end of this month, thus having some spare cash is a good safeguard. 

I do note the increase in the level of posting (and pasting, lol) that RED gets, and personally I'm not concerned with the level and content of the posts, as most are based on technical matters that can be overturned in an instant. Whilst some would argue that the technicals are the smoke signals for issues in the project, I would argue that the smoke will be blown away once RED confirms production in the coming weeks. I suggest those that do get a bit wobbly listening to technical posters who have no clue to what the real situation is on the ground, note that the Production Guidance remains as before, thus RED is likely to achieve a profit in the current year ending this June around $18 million! Quite a nice little earner!

I bought more shares today, and don't have any regrets. But then again I make my decisions on my own view, not on someone who wouldn't have a clue about what is actually happening!


----------



## beatle (21 March 2012)

Compliments of Loki1 at HC, RED are presenting in New York next week. At the same time I understand they will also be visiting a number of new insto's and brokers during the week:

http://casimircapital.com/us/content/attendees


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## fwpike (21 March 2012)

In my opinion our focus as shareholders should be dividends. Management will always spend money on exploration if allowed as this guarantees their long term future, regardless of the cost/benefit equation. We should insist that at least 75% of any profit should be returned to the providers of capital. That policy, or even the promise of it,  will drive sp more than visits to brokers


----------



## Boggo (21 March 2012)

This was sent to me as a text this morning regarding RED 

_1. Consolidate.
2. Raise cash.
3. Raise pay.
4. Oh woops - better produce some gold, almost forgot.
5. Tell the shareholders about what is happening at least 2 weeks after the fact._


----------



## Wa11y (21 March 2012)

Boggo said:


> This was sent to me as a text this morning regarding RED
> 
> _1. Consolidate.
> 2. Raise cash.
> ...




Is this back to that rubbish about getting shareholders to approve their payrises after the MAMMOTH 6% capital raise? Because that'll really shift the voting pattern to an unfair level where they will be able to approve anything.

Seriously.


----------



## mgm1a (21 March 2012)

i sent email today........
QUOTE
Mr Greg Edwards 
Managing Director
or
Mr Frank Campagna
Company Secretary 

Dear Sir

Please review http://casimircapital.com/us/content/attendees for the upcoming New York meetings.

By clicking RED5 the Nov 2011 presentation comes up – this hasn’t been updated to the Feb. 2012 one
Yours faithfully
END QUOTE

:
:
not in the email = Their PR guy should be fired


----------



## Wa11y (21 March 2012)

mgm1a said:


> i sent email today........
> QUOTE
> Mr Greg Edwards
> Managing Director
> ...




Yeah I noticed that too. Pretty average.


----------



## skyQuake (21 March 2012)

Wa11y said:


> There's been a lot of mention of RED Management seeking $25m, but only getting $15m. Where does it say this? Apart from this forum of course?
> 
> Because I can't see it anywhere.




From WSJ:





> _  (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
> March 19, 2012 03:35 ET (07:35 GMT)
> WSJ: Gold Miner Red 5 Raises A$25 Million At A$2.12/Share -Source
> 
> ...






mgm1a said:


> i sent email today........
> QUOTE
> Mr Greg Edwards
> Managing Director
> ...




I hardly think RED would be responsible for material that appears on Casimir's website.


----------



## Wa11y (21 March 2012)

skyQuake said:


> From WSJ:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Ah ok, thanks.


----------



## mgm1a (21 March 2012)

skyquake - incorrect...its not a good look, its sloppy, unprofessional especially when since Nov. so much HAS and HAS NOT happened1

Of course they should be responsible- its their data they provided and they should have provided update and ensured that Casimir uploaded ...if its worth going to the effort (& expense) of trying to attract new investors of course they are rsponsible for seeing each and every channel they are using has the facts correct and up to date.


----------



## tech/a (21 March 2012)

mgm1a said:


> skyquake - incorrect...its not a good look, its sloppy, unprofessional especially when since Nov. so much HAS and HAS NOT happened1
> 
> Of course they should be responsible- its their data they provided and they should have provided update and ensured that Casimir uploaded ...if its worth going to the effort (& expense) of trying to attract new investors of course they are rsponsible for seeing each and every channel they are using has the facts correct and up to date.




Hell
Why dont they present Beatles valuation of $3.00 and all the ho ha and its a mottza to fly to $3.00.

You know I just* STILL* cant understand why price falls when this logic of $3.00 is always bandied around?

Why on earth would people sell?
Fundamentally.

Technically its a disaster but
Fundies should be all over this.
Price just keeps falling.
Its the gold price ---RIGHT?
Company is great Gold price is crap.

But wait what about the *VALUATION*????
$3.00 its a bargain!


----------



## mgm1a (21 March 2012)

tech/a  -ha ha

there is no single "valuation" - change variables (i.e.using expectations and historical data, discounts to be conseravtive ) and each person gets their own number they feel comfortable to aim for. 

I came up with 30c /$3 a long while back based on $1450 POG so recent POG irrelevant. 

I never said I couldn't undertsand why the price is falling...in fact I thought it so variable I was amazed you could trade it. 

A tech trader won't expect to be right with every trade....and won't undertsand why anyone else would still be "in" after they they themselves have exited!!

So too a fundamental investor knows their target doesn't happen overnight...and won't understand why anyone wouldn't be tempted to tuck into some "cheapies" (by comparison to valuation) that one day Mr Market will pay attention to. 


My "beef" with these small matters re PR is not todays SP, but that simple, controllable business conduct that slightly diminishes RED image for watching investors.


----------



## mgm1a (21 March 2012)

there you go - while i penned the post above for tech/a the price  is up 4c
probably him - in for a quickie


----------



## barney (21 March 2012)

Had a bit of a read over the last few pages of this thread ..... 


I don't own RED and don't trade RED, so, from a totally unbiased perspective ....


*Assuming the projections from management are fair dinkum *..... these guys could be sitting on around $70 million per annum in profit if I understood the recent Announcement ...... that is not small change!

Technically, most of the weaker hands would be out during the last double bottom shakeout at $1.50, so it would be questionable whether the Big End will even bother doing that much shaking below the $2 level ...... More likely squeeze the retailers out with boredom for a week or so by holding the CR level

For mine, it would have to close under $2 for a few days to show any real weakness, and even then the 50% retrace from the recent high would still only be around the $1.85 level  (good entry, with a tightish Stop *assuming the production comes on stream as stated*)

As for the $15 million CR ............ 
The management now have some capital to buffer the Production deadline (good business)  

They have raised the cash not much below the all time high SP and only diluted the share register 6-7% (good business)

I really can't see why all the angst over the Fundies Vs Techies on this particular stock. It looks like its doing fine in both departments .... just my personal observations ... no fighting or bullying required:


----------



## jancha (21 March 2012)

Tech & Boggo seem to just want to take the p..s out of the posters on this thread. Most of their comments aren't even revelent to RED. It more about Techies Vs Fundies.
Noone said it's going to fly up to $3 and even if they did it's no different than you saying it's going down to $1.20 BS.  SP $2.09


----------



## Chasero (21 March 2012)

barney said:


> They have raised the cash not much below the all time high SP and only diluted the share register 6-7% (good business)




That's a good point..

I expect RED to trade between $2 to $2.12 this week


----------



## Wa11y (21 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Tech & Boggo seem to just want to take the p..s out of the posters on this thread. Most of their comments aren't even revelent to RED. It more about Techies Vs Fundies.
> Noone said it's going to fly up to $3 and even if they did it's no different than you saying it's going down to $1.20 BS.  SP $2.09




Good post, as the one above it (Barney's post). And mostly, the tech talk is about basic economic principles - I learnt about supply & demand in high school.


----------



## Chasero (21 March 2012)

Last 10 minutes of trading definitely a lot of dumping 

Anyway, as long as you are comfortable with your entry price and time frame you wish to hold red, no one in the thread should really sway your decision. 

short term at least, not looking good.


----------



## tech/a (21 March 2012)

Wa11y said:


> Good post, as the one above it (Barney's post). And mostly, the tech talk is about basic economic principles - I learnt about supply & demand in high school.




Well it just smashed through $2 to the down side.
Perhaps you should re visit your High school Supply and demand Notes.

Its as *SIMPLE* as that.
No demand!

But hey pick the posts which suit your bias.


----------



## Wa11y (21 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> Last 10 minutes of trading definitely a lot of dumping
> 
> Anyway, as long as you are comfortable with your entry price and time frame you wish to hold red, no one in the thread should really sway your decision.
> 
> short term at least, not looking good.




Yeah, a real lot, $500k between 3.50 and 4.00. Interesting to see what happens first thing tomorrow morning.


----------



## barney (21 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Well it just *smashed* through $2 to the down side.
> Perhaps you should re visit your High school Supply and demand Notes.
> 
> Its as *SIMPLE* as that.
> ...





Are you shorting this Tech:

As I said, I don't hold, so basically I am ambivilent etc etc .... 

I haven't done the sums on the whole days trade ( Too much work considering I have no vested interest) .... but just for some balance ..... 


During the last 10 minutes of trade, the SP was bumped down from $2 to a low of $1.91  ... A trade at 3.58 for 21 shares actually dropped the SP 4 cents ....... 


*3:58:20 PM   Price $1.91 Number of Shares  21	 Cost  $40    Number of trades 1
*      (Professionals or Retailers?)  .... pretty obvious

Other stuff such as the *after 4 o clock trades *were a total of $523,867 (20 trades) for a rise in SP of 3.5 cents  ...... The ten minutes prior to close there were  a total of $444,403 (80 trades)

Make of that what you will .... 

$1.85 won't surprise me ... even $1.70 ...... but when there are no more retail traders to screw over, I reckon the Sp will only go one direction

Happy to take another lottery ticket bet on this one Tech if you are interested  .... If it doesn't break $2.40 within two months I buy ..... If it does, your shout  Let me know


----------



## skyQuake (21 March 2012)

Have a review of what has been said yesterday and today. Lots of things to learn. and (un)learn


----------



## fwpike (21 March 2012)

I guess that everyone who wanted in got in during the capital raising. Nothing like a lack of buyers to depress the price. I have really topped up at these prices. Now if we can get some gold into the bank and then into my bank please......


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## mgm1a (21 March 2012)

skyquake - also have to add to my previous comment that I'd have expected Casimir to ensure they uploaded the recent preso because they were the Lead on the placement! and took thier fee I'm sure.


----------



## skyQuake (21 March 2012)

Just like to point out there is no available borrow in RED. I would imagine many s/t placement instos/traders did not have to the opportunity to sell into volume yesterday, and would be forced to sell into a thin market after they get their stock.

I might be buying an exaggerated downmove after placement gets allotted. Not before.

FA will mean little in these few weeks when flow is dominant.


----------



## Gold Munster (22 March 2012)

G'Day All,
I suspect yesterday late drop was due to the following announcement WRT a Phillipine Mining Tax

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/03/21/12/miners-will-have-pay-more-taxes-aquino

Still hurts having a 10% drop though, but look at AMX, NMG and MOY all CAP raisings  and all smashed....

Cheers


----------



## mrlister (22 March 2012)

Looks like has good support in the mid 1.90's. But is it enough to get through to next weeks production status?


----------



## mrlister (22 March 2012)

Hey tech, what do your charts tell you?


----------



## jancha (22 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> Hey tech, what do your charts tell you?




Let me have a stab at it Lister if you dont mind the humour.
With RED having low volume today with little demand it should continue to fall. 
Some support @ $1.90 but once thats broken...Look out below $1.20ish
I could be Techs PR


----------



## mrlister (22 March 2012)

Let's hope it goes to 1.20. I'll put Techies house on it!!


----------



## Boggo (22 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> Let's hope it goes to 1.20. I'll put Techies house on it!!





Which one, or all of them


----------



## mrlister (22 March 2012)

Boggo said:


> Which one, or all of them




The one on the riviera


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2012)

Now I don't know but I'm pretty sure a plunging gold price isn't going to bode well for RED.

Where's a good bit of spin when you need it!


----------



## mrlister (22 March 2012)

Gold price is dropping, but not quite plunging yet.


----------



## mrlister (22 March 2012)

Ok it's now officially plunging!!


----------



## tech/a (23 March 2012)

Wow more buy opportunities.
$2.10 was cheap to many here---- this must be a complete gift!

Hell those who bought the capital raising at $2.12 must be delighted to be able to "Top up" at these prices.

Insto's are obviously crazy to over look RED at this price.

All Sarcasm aside.
This is what THE MARKET values RED at.
If you think its anticipating $3 on production then your dreaming.


----------



## ChessPlayer (23 March 2012)

How far do you expect it would fall tech? It seems like a combination of factors driving it down today, dare I say it actually looks tempting at this level. I didn't leave at the top like I believe you have last time, but managed 2.18.


----------



## tech/a (23 March 2012)

ChessPlayer said:


> How far do you expect it would fall tech? It seems like a combination of factors driving it down today, dare I say it actually looks tempting at this level. I didn't leave at the top like I believe you have last time, but managed 2.18.




Dont know

The market will tell me.

Right now its not telling me BUY.
Ill be looking for a clear
(1) Exhaustion of supply
*OR*
(2) New and strong return of Demand.
*BUT*
(3) Are most likely to see a bottoming and long term flattening of price with lack luster price action which will frustrate the hell out of longer term holders.

Look Im no Fundie but it appears to me that regardless of Hype this and every other gold stock is heavily influenced by the price of gold. Its at around the same price as it was when I first saw this thread and gained an interest as I couldnt and still cant see how people can trade off of announcements and hope and promise. And has there been an abundance of hype and promise with more to come in N/Y evidently. Plenty at capital raising which as we know was less than impressive in support. At $1.84 ish we can see why!

So as the US and Europe steady and indeed recover over time will likely see gold fall and it could fall rapidly.

So if and when you see 1 or 2 then it will be interesting. But there are a whole heap caught at $2.12 so expect resistance right here!


----------



## mrlister (23 March 2012)

support is definitely building in the low to mid 80's. and not a lot for sale under the mid 90's


----------



## tech/a (23 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> support is definitely building in the low to mid 80's. and not a lot for sale under the mid 90's




Means nothing
If a seller wants to sell or a buyer wants to buy they will do it* AT MARKET *as we saw with the dumping of 500000 a day or so ago!!

*HINT*

Firstly watch the daily high and low.
Watch what price does as it tests the daily high at $1.91
Is the effort as it tests that level winning or being supressed
Same as it heads toward the low. Is it being supported or are sellers making an effort to get out!

This is the *FIRST* place to look for a pulling up *OR* a continuation.

One day at a time.


----------



## jah008 (23 March 2012)

beatle said:


> In fact I'm happy to take a bet with him that it won't even move below 10% from that placement price within 5 days of the TH being announced (eg if the placement price is say $2.12 then that it won't hit below $1.91 within 5 trading days after the TH).




Hope you didn't go all in on this bet beatle?


----------



## mrlister (23 March 2012)

jah008 said:


> Hope you didn't go all in on this bet beatle?




maybe he meant that it wouldnt hit 'directly' below 1.91...cos it didnt, it completely skipped that and went to mid 1.80's


----------



## Boggo (23 March 2012)

Average action was at the lower end of today's price range - bargain again today


----------



## jancha (23 March 2012)

Boggo said:


> Average action was at the lower end of today's price range - bargain again today




Cheers Boggo i'll go down to the corner shop and buy some more!!


----------



## Boggo (23 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Cheers Boggo i'll go down to the corner shop and buy some more!!




Take a brown paper bag with you, there could be children around :luigi:


----------



## notting (23 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Means nothing
> If a seller wants to sell or a buyer wants to buy they will do it* AT MARKET *
> 
> *HINT*
> ...




Valuable as usual!!
Something that should be posted on your wall above your screen if it's not part of your habitual tool kit!!


----------



## ChrisJH (23 March 2012)

Interesting, interesting. I see another potential buying opportunity coming up. I don't actually know much about TA or FA, but since I have been watching RED I have seen it go up from 1.20 (12cents), and up to 2.30-2.40 a few times, and usually back down to 1.70-1.80 (or below, like last time). I missed most of these opportunities, but managed to sell at 2.30 after purchasing at an average of 1.71.

I'm looking to get in and do pretty much the same again. Wish I had some kind of idea how far down it is likely to go though. Are we expecting gold price to continue to fall?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 March 2012)

ChrisJH said:


> Interesting, interesting. I see another potential buying opportunity coming up. I don't actually know much about TA or FA, but since I have been watching RED I have seen it go up from 1.20 (12cents), and up to 2.30-2.40 a few times, and usually back down to 1.70-1.80 (or below, like last time). I missed most of these opportunities, but managed to sell at 2.30 after purchasing at an average of 1.71.
> 
> I'm looking to get in and do pretty much the same again. Wish I had some kind of idea how far down it is likely to go though. Are we expecting gold price to continue to fall?




Mate, Google bigcharts.

Go in to bigcharts.com

Enter au:red

Right click on the chart and copy the url.

Then post it on this thread,

And comment on it. Luck rarely strikes twice unless you are a chartist.

We could learn from you.

gg


----------



## jancha (24 March 2012)

Boggo said:


> Take a brown paper bag with you, there could be children around :luigi:




Geez Boggo what sort of corner shop do you have???


----------



## mrlister (24 March 2012)

Gold is up by over a percent ATM, which is unheard of in recent times. This will def effect the big miners, but RED's name is mud now due to CR. so due to absolutely no confidence, I still see no rise in here till at least month end


----------



## tech/a (24 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> Gold is up by over a percent ATM, which is unheard of in recent times. This will def effect the big miners, but RED's name is mud now due to CR. so due to absolutely no confidence, I still see no rise in here till at least month end




I would expect some positive price action.
But again look at what's happening with effort as price makes its way to key areas on the chart I've marked up.
I have included a little anticipation so we can see how it goes moving forward.

*CLICK TO EXPAND*


----------



## jancha (24 March 2012)

Tech  As gold prices has a bearing on REDs sp and you've been around the money with your charting how do you see Golds chart heading from the Tech point of view?
Then that becomes a fundamental for RED.


----------



## mrlister (24 March 2012)

Everything that is fundamental will be exposed in the charts!!


----------



## jancha (25 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> Everything that is fundamental will be exposed in the charts!!



Sorry lister didn't realise that fundamentals are actually Techs.


----------



## fastbuck1 (25 March 2012)

Beatles been a bit quite since the sp plunge, i'd say he's in some bar in the philippenes after his misses hunted him out the door for buying more red.......


----------



## mrlister (26 March 2012)

Someone go wake up Beatle, he can go home again!!


----------



## Starcraftmazter (26 March 2012)

Strong bidding - but weak volume (or should I say returning to average prior to the capital raising?). Rather tempting to buy in, let's see what happens tomorrow. Gold stocks have been doing fairly well today since gold has rebounded from recent lows - but at the same time it is near recent heights so...


----------



## mrlister (26 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Strong bidding - but weak volume (or should I say returning to average prior to the capital raising?). Rather tempting to buy in, let's see what happens tomorrow. Gold stocks have been doing fairly well today since gold has rebounded from recent lows - but at the same time it is near recent heights so...




NCM surprisingly not moving with the gold price rebound.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (26 March 2012)

Gold up significantly on Bernankie's speech - not $100 or anything, but quite a bit (and still going up). NST and RED were the biggest gainers today on my watchlist, and I can definitely see a bit of a rally in both in the short-term, so I think both are pretty good plays right now.

Forgive the lack of charts in anything. I actually can't find a half decent daily gold chart - anyone know of any?


----------



## mrlister (27 March 2012)

I'm still not convinced RED is being driven by gold price too much. But more on the deliverance of promise. cos until they actually ramp up production, it's all Fluff.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (27 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> I'm still not convinced RED is being driven by gold price too much. But more on the deliverance of promise. cos until they actually ramp up production, it's all Fluff.




Oh for sure, but gold price is a significant factor.

Personally I agree with T/A's T/A, except I'm not taking a position once it gets to 2.10ish.


----------



## mrlister (27 March 2012)

Definitely significant once they actually produce some. Thus far it's a single bar and a line of empty promises. They are set to give production status on the 1st of April. That is going to be a bigger motivator than today's gold price. 

Currently im with you, keen to squeeze some more pennies out of RED, but not till I see it break through the 2.15 mark.


----------



## ChrisJH (27 March 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Mate, Google bigcharts.
> 
> Go in to bigcharts.com
> 
> ...




Hi GG, entertaining comments as always. Like I say, I'm no chartist but I do watch the up's and down's. Though this website could actually provide useful info on volume, thanks!





I see the same thing after looking at this chart. RED goes up. RED goes down. RED goes up. RED goes down. Volume seems to spike on when SP goes down then up. Can't be that easy?

I still see a few dollars to be made on RED, even after the capital raising. May have a bit to go down before it goes up again but I'm careful on when buying back in anyway.

Don't hold, yet.


----------



## Sutekh (27 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Forgive the lack of charts in anything. I actually can't find a half decent daily gold chart - anyone know of any?




This site has a live-updating gold chart, 

http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html


----------



## skyQuake (27 March 2012)

Post allotment rally 
Gold going up certainly helps too


----------



## Boggo (27 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> Currently im with you, keen to squeeze some more pennies out of RED, but not till I see it break through the 2.15 mark.




Tend to agree with that (2.15 to 2.17), not far to the next resistance level from there though is the next issue. Needs to close above 2.10 first up.

It has the potential to take off if they get their act together but we will probably see an indication of that in the chart before its made public, until then it is fun to watch (and read about).

(click to expand)


----------



## jancha (27 March 2012)

Boggo said:


> Tend to agree with that (2.15 to 2.17), not far to the next resistance level from there though is the next issue. Needs to close above 2.10 first up.
> 
> It has the potential to take off if they get their act together but we will probably see an indication of that in the chart before its made public, until then it is fun to watch (and read about).
> 
> (click to expand)




Bought a few parcels of RED at an ave. of $1.84 last week & sold today at $2.03. Now looking at buying back in at where it sits at $1.94 or thinking maybe i should wait and get at a lower price? Where's it going to go from here that is the question. Thinking thinking. Maybe the gold will dictate the direction in RED for now.
Hey Beatle where you be. Gone up to the Phillipines to give management curry or  cowering down in the cellar with a bottle of RED from the missus??
Come home BT we miss you! lol
Thread has gotten awefully quiet. Where


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Forgive the lack of charts in anything. I actually can't find a half decent daily gold chart - anyone know of any?




http://www.kitco.com/market/aud_charts.html


----------



## silence (28 March 2012)

jancha said:


> Bought a few parcels of RED at an ave. of $1.84 last week & sold today at $2.03. Now looking at buying back in at where it sits at $1.94 or thinking maybe i should wait and get at a lower price? Where's it going to go from here that is the question. Thinking thinking. Maybe the gold will dictate the direction in RED for now.
> Hey Beatle where you be. Gone up to the Phillipines to give management curry or  cowering down in the cellar with a bottle of RED from the missus??
> Come home BT we miss you! lol
> Thread has gotten awefully quiet. Where




I bought at $1.92 or so 2 days ago, and it was looking good early yesterday, but I really didn't like the loss in momentum in the afternoon, and sold for a small profit rather than risk holding overnight. I think I'll be waiting to see if I can get in at more like $1.80, it's not too far a stretch to see it there again at some point in the next couple of weeks unless there is some spectacular announcement imo..


----------



## mrlister (28 March 2012)

i agree. but with the roadshow presentation a day ago, plus the production announcement on monday, i just dont think there is time ti get back to 1.8....well at least i hope not. i bought back in at 1.97....kinda nervous right now.


----------



## tech/a (28 March 2012)

*Trapped*




Click to expand.


----------



## Boggo (28 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> *Trapped*




Precisely tech/a, stands out like the proverbial.

I would actually like to see someone who has bought it come out with a logical reason and say "I bought it today because ********************** "

Because Gus knows his poggy or beagle said it will is just gambling in hope


----------



## mrlister (28 March 2012)

Im 90% on the techies side in these arguments, as you simply can't deny the patterns and logic of technical trading. 

But there are always circumstances where fundamentals will move a stock too. 

This company has been promising for some time and is yet to deliver, and the price reflects that. it's a 20c speccie. But whenever positive news has come out of management, price has has mostly responded accordingly. With news expected on Monday that production is in full swing finally, people would be nuts to sell off now, and I think that is reflected in trading. People are reluctant to buy too high, out of fear of another delay, yet people aren't selling off now either, so close to news. 

This is how I see it, could very well be wrong. Here's to hoping I'm right and there being some happy people around here!!


----------



## Starcraftmazter (28 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> With news expected on Monday that production is in full swing finally, people would be nuts to sell off now, and I think that is reflected in trading.




It was sold off by over 5 cents today.


----------



## Boggo (28 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> But there are always circumstances where fundamentals will move a stock too.




Yep, they always will mrlister but there are no signs yet of anything of substance.

The highs so far have been based on hope, that has evaporated and it needs a dose of reality rather than spin to get it our of the cycle that tech/a has highlighted.


A couple of possible patterns that it may take when it eventually takes off (no allowance made for further downside as that will change pattern layout).

I tend to prefer the second option for a number of obvious reasons.

(click to expand)


----------



## mardo (28 March 2012)

Boggo said:


> Precisely tech/a, stands out like the proverbial.
> 
> I would actually like to see someone who has bought it come out with a logical reason and say "I bought it today because ********************** "
> 
> Because Gus knows his poggy or beagle said it will is just gambling in hope



 Hi Boggo.
I was buying today because of 1. Impending "Comercial Production Announcement" due out soon.
2.FRANKLIIN RESOURCES is buying heaps more-Previouos notice 5th Jan 6,614 Mio Shares
26th March notice 8,900 Mio Shares
3.I believe their management will deliver on future production guidence which is at a very low gold production price.
Time will tell who is right.


----------



## notting (28 March 2012)

mardo said:


> I was buying today because of 1. Impending "Comercial Production Announcement" due out soon.
> 2.FRANKLIIN RESOURCES is buying heaps more-Previouos notice 5th Jan 6,614 Mio Shares
> 26th March notice 8,900 Mio Shares




Lucky no one else knows about that


----------



## Boggo (29 March 2012)

mardo said:


> Hi Boggo.
> I was buying today because of 1. Impending "Comercial Production Announcement" due out soon.
> 2.FRANKLIIN RESOURCES is buying heaps more-Previouos notice 5th Jan 6,614 Mio Shares
> 26th March notice 8,900 Mio Shares
> ...




If you think that it is about being right or wrong you are missing the point mardo, its not a competition, that's what lottery tickets etc are for.
It's a business, all about getting in based on reality, not what may happen, when it happens then go for it.

Don't go down the track of you vs anyone who doesn't share the same opinion as you, we have already had 6 months of that amateur banter.
It is possible that it will take off, when it does I and many others who treat this as a business will most likely be all over it time and other opportunities permitting.

My 

Cheers.


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 March 2012)

Boggo said:


> If you think that it is about being right or wrong you are missing the point mardo, its not a competition, that's what lottery tickets etc are for.
> It's a business, all about getting in based on reality, not what may happen, when it happens then go for it.
> 
> Don't go down the track of you vs anyone who doesn't share the same opinion as you, we have already had 6 months of that amateur banter.
> ...



 nice post.


----------



## mrlister (29 March 2012)

down this morning....but very low volume. hopefully just all the nervous nellies packin their bags.


----------



## tech/a (29 March 2012)

Seriously getting up every morning and just hoping and Praying for a positive day---day in day out ---- watching every announcement---swapping hypotheticals----over the last 6 mths while placing your hard earned at risk with *NO IDEA *what tomorrow will bring let alone the future.

------------opcorn:


----------



## dave1234 (29 March 2012)

If some people "top up" every time this stock drops, they must be close to being majority shareholders....


----------



## mrlister (29 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Seriously getting up every morning and just hoping and Praying for a positive day---day in day out ---- watching every announcement---swapping hypotheticals----over the last 6 mths while placing your hard earned at risk with *NO IDEA *what tomorrow will bring let alone the future.
> 
> ------------opcorn:




nature of the beast for technical and fundamental. 

if we go back to when it jumped off the 1.50ies....back then you had no idea and thought it would drop further to support in the 1.20ies. but along comes an announcement and its sitting at 1.90....then 2.30.


----------



## jancha (29 March 2012)

What tomorrow will bring i have NO IDEA but who does?
What i do know is i'm up 25k on RED and if it drops back down to the mid $1.80s i'll be buying back in but at some point tho i think it will jump to the next level. I dont think RED will be just a flash in the pan but a successful consistent gold producer. Time will tell and in the meantime i'm collecting on the highs and buying on the lows.


----------



## tech/a (29 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Volumes going into the Support zone are important.
> 
> High volumes indicate Supply and Buyers absorbing supply.
> Who will win if that is the case wont be known until one otr the other withdraws.
> ...




mrlister
You might want to check terminology used in the analysis.


----------



## mrlister (30 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> mrlister
> You might want to check terminology used in the analysis.




What do the charts say about today? Very low volume, no change in price?


----------



## tech/a (31 March 2012)

mrlister said:


> What do the charts say about today? Very low volume, no change in price?




Nothing.


----------



## fastbuck1 (31 March 2012)

tech/a said:


> Nothing.




whats interesting is there has been no run up on volume and sp with the market exspecting red to ann how much gold's been produced for the quarter, what ever happened to buy the rumor sell the fact..........Beatle most likely at the mine site, he's been to quite........


----------



## tech/a (31 March 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> whats interesting is there has been no run up on volume and sp with the market exspecting red to ann how much gold's been produced for the quarter, what ever happened to buy the rumor sell the fact..........Beatle most likely at the mine site, he's been to quite........




It's just moving with gold price movement.
Take a look it's obvious


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## mrlister (31 March 2012)

Lucky gold price is up then


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## mrlister (2 April 2012)

Well......no announcements. Looks like promises lost once again!!


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## mardo (2 April 2012)

mrlister said:


> Well......no announcements. Looks like promises lost once again!!




Perhaps 1st April means after Easter.


----------



## Buckfont (2 April 2012)

Might have been an April Fool`s joke too, as I have found their ability to keep shareholders informed borders on the comedy side, only difference is it`s not funny.

Get real, Red management.


----------



## mrlister (2 April 2012)

Buckfont said:


> Might have been an April Fool`s joke too, as I have found their ability to keep shareholders informed borders on the comedy side, only difference is it`s not funny.
> 
> Get real, Red management.




Completely agree. The worst part is that the 1st date was part of an investor presentation!!! Welcome aboard new investors, welcome to the  overpaid chimps that run this rabble


----------



## tech/a (2 April 2012)

Instead of wasting bandwidth here you should be trading MAD.
As I said if you sit and wait and wait and wait then you have *opportunity cost.*Bugger what you "Could make"
Get on to what you CAN make.
Find a train and hop on board.
No point in pacing up and down a platform!


----------



## mrlister (2 April 2012)

tech/a said:


> Instead of wasting bandwidth here you should be trading MAD.
> As I said if you sit and wait and wait and wait then you have *opportunity cost.*Bugger what you "Could make"
> Get on to what you CAN make.
> Find a train and hop on board.
> No point in pacing up and down a platform!




Agree on MAD. But don't you think that train has already departed?


----------



## tech/a (2 April 2012)

mrlister said:


> Agree on MAD. But don't you think that train has already departed?




Sure has but I havent seen any indication that its about to stop--*YET.*

Its made 12% today

If I get 1 12% day in a week then Im pretty happy!

Back to *RED!* 
Nothing to report---same old same old.


----------



## mr. jeff (2 April 2012)

Buckfont said:


> Might have been an April Fool`s joke too, as I have found their ability to keep shareholders informed borders on the comedy side, only difference is it`s not funny.
> 
> Get real, Red management.




Very funny!
Don't forget that:

- Dates are set so that holders can look forward to them.
- On time announcements mean things are going to plan.
- Management are busy behind the scenes, but they haven't worked out which scenes or which play.
- Media and communication is for whimps, mining is for men. Producing gold is for...


No harm meant to anyone, including management.


----------



## mrlister (2 April 2012)

Agree with second comment. If things were going to plan then report would have been released. 

This management needs to become more transparent. 

As for MAD, I know that if I bought in that the train is bound to crash!!


----------



## Buckfont (2 April 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> Very funny!
> Don't forget that:
> 
> - Dates are set so that holders can look forward to them.
> ...




mr jeff, Have to agree on all four points, the last of which I`m in neither camp.

Producing gold is for people similar to your namesake,............... mr T.

There is an old song in which I shall transcribe the first verse. It may hit a note with some RED investors. Hope in within the boundaries of copyright.

`Right,` said fRED, "both of us together
one on each end and steady as we go."
Tried to shift it, couldnt even lift it
We was going nowhere
And so we had a cuppa tea...........

http://sniff.numachi.com/pages/tiRITEFRED.html

and here`s the song...........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7Bvd33V9dQ

Best wishes for all holders


----------



## mrlister (2 April 2012)

There are some intelligent posts here, some are thought provoking, others are just stating facts. That last one was none of above. Just plain ridiculous.


----------



## Buckfont (2 April 2012)

mrlister said:


> There are some intelligent posts here, some are thought provoking, others are just stating facts. That last one was none of above. Just plain ridiculous.




It`s called symbolism. Not meant to be taken literally. I guess we all have different senses of humour and this thread needs some.


----------



## jancha (3 April 2012)

Company highlights
• Guidance production – 18,000 ounces to June 2012 and
75,000 ounces for 12 months ending June 2013
• Commissioning almost complete with commercial production
expected to be declared 1 April 2012.
• Forecast cash costs sub $350 per ounce, low relative to peers
• 10 year mine life based on current LOM plan of 849,000 recovered
ounces - subject to upside potential
• Mineral Resource updated – 21% increase in ounces
• Management has a long established presence in the Philippines,
allowing Red 5 to capitalise on growth opportunities
• Admitted to S&P/ASX 300 index, top tier shareholder base



Expected to be declared 1 April 2012.
 Should have said " Due to our usual tardy announcements we expect but not necessarily will declared on 1 April 2012 or 2013 or 2014. Anyway 1 of those Aprils. 
The bright side of it is the mines life should last a lot longer.


----------



## mrlister (3 April 2012)

If you look back on all previous quarterlies, they have always been released on time, except september when they must have felt so bad about it that they even created an extra day just for the release (31st). 

Yet this month we are now at the 3rd and nothing!!


----------



## Vixs (3 April 2012)

While I would never expect, or even consider, a management team to manage according to the posts of a bunch of anonymous people on a forum - someone should email them a link to this thread.

At least then they could see how people feel when they do not communicate.

I am building a little war chest at the moment, nothing extravagant, but it's mine. I like the numbers I see about RED, but I do not one bit like the lack of transparency or updates. What are we to read into the fact that they have just spent time in the US parading the business and all the company has to show for it is an unmoved share price?

I just want to see the gold flow. Until then I will have an uneasy feeling.


----------



## mrlister (3 April 2012)

As have many others, which is why price is in slow decline


----------



## mrlister (3 April 2012)

oops, got my dates wrong, quarterly not due until end of April.


----------



## dave1234 (10 April 2012)

Did the gold rush end?


----------



## jancha (10 April 2012)

dave1234 said:


> Did the gold rush end?




Nah they're still scatching around. Does the Phillipines have an Easter Break? Maybe they have an extended one from the beginning of April and that's why we haven't heard anything yet on the commissioning. Come on now pour that gold and stop drinking the red management!!
Ps I wonder if Mrs Beatle has found Mr Beatle yet? Hint...try looking in the cellar.


----------



## mrlister (10 April 2012)

They are commissioning, but a technicality prevents them from announcing this. All will become clear soon.


----------



## Des P (10 April 2012)

jancha said:


> Nah they're still scatching around. Does the Phillipines have an Easter Break? Maybe they have an extended one from the beginning of April and that's why we haven't heard anything yet on the commissioning. Come on now pour that gold and stop drinking the red management!!
> Ps I wonder if Mrs Beatle has found Mr Beatle yet? Hint...try looking in the cellar.




In reply to the Easter break the country basically shuts down ,i have some operations over there that need parts,But this will never happen, once religious holidays start in Asia the phones are off no matter where you are in Asia  
Yes mining and drilling operations will still run 24/7 same as Australia, but the difference is everything goes into slow down mode and then spikes a week after Easter
Hope red holders have an announcement soon
Cheers
Des
Cheers


----------



## jancha (11 April 2012)

Des P said:


> In reply to the Easter break the country basically shuts down ,i have some operations over there that need parts,But this will never happen, once religious holidays start in Asia the phones are off no matter where you are in Asia
> Yes mining and drilling operations will still run 24/7 same as Australia, but the difference is everything goes into slow down mode and then spikes a week after Easter
> Hope red holders have an announcement soon
> Cheers
> ...




Thanks Des...I actually thought they didn't celerbrate Easter due to their religion.


----------



## Chasero (11 April 2012)

mrlister said:


> They are commissioning, but a technicality prevents them from announcing this. All will become clear soon.




what technicality? 

Easter?


----------



## mrlister (11 April 2012)

Chasero said:


> what technicality?
> 
> Easter?




Easter bunny fell in pit.


----------



## Boggo (11 April 2012)

mrlister said:


> Easter bunny fell in pit.




No, that was Beatle, he is up to his armpits in that poggy stuff


----------



## jancha (11 April 2012)

REDs a bit like Coles Down Down...even the easter bunnies are half price.
Pity you cant put them in the bottom draw for next Easter.
 RED on the other hand with management and with it's tardy announcements looks like the bottom draw will be the only place for them!


----------



## mrlister (11 April 2012)

whole market is down. might as well put whole market in bottom drawer atm


----------



## Chasero (11 April 2012)

mrlister said:


> whole market is down. might as well put whole market in bottom drawer atm




THR and QPN has done well


----------



## jancha (11 April 2012)

mrlister said:


> whole market is down. might as well put whole market in bottom drawer atm




I wouldn't say the whole market is down or put them in the bottom draw for that matter.
 Had RED come out with announcement in line with their production forcast i would doubt very much that they would be down. RED needs to practice what it preaches.... 1st of April was 11 days ago... where's the commercial production announcement??.


----------



## jancha (11 April 2012)

This from REDs Management...

Dear sir,

Thank you for your query regarding the announcement of commercial production.

The company will announce commercial production once we have achieved the stated target of 30 consecutive days of processing at a minimum of 60% capacity. 
At the time of making the statement the company had expected this to occur by early April but until we do achieve the stated targets we cannot declare commercial production. 
In the meantime the plant is producing gold and we have had shipments to the refiner.

Regards,


At least a response from RED


----------



## mrlister (11 April 2012)

I got the same response from management last week. The 30 days was the technicality I was referring to. They also went on to say that in the event that anything happened and production halted and the 30 days got broken again, that they would bring forward the release of the quarterly (which is due end of april) to give some comfort to shareholders.


----------



## fastbuck1 (13 April 2012)

wonder what happened to Beatle??? his last post was on the 21/3 , no mention that he was going some place, hope all is  well with the red legend.........


----------



## mr. jeff (13 April 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> wonder what happened to Beatle??? his last post was on the 21/3 , no mention that he was going some place, hope all is  well with the red legend.........




Hope he's OK, thoughts with him and his family if there is some health issue or similar.

I would otherwise suggest that he is on site at Siana trying to sort things out. And communicate what is happening - he should have had a retainer from management for the past few years!


----------



## mrlister (13 April 2012)

Agree about Beatle. He is a patriot of red to the point where I'm a little nervous as to why he isn't posting? 

Back to RED, weird old day. Still no sign of news so a lot of small nervous sellers, but bots were just absorbing whatever people would sell. I was actually pretty happy with that as someone had definitely set the software to purchase quite a few today (relatively speaking, overall was a low volume day)


----------



## fwpike (16 April 2012)

I gather that the CEO has been touring New York brokers with the chairman. Can't speak for the brokers but I would be more impressed if he was fixing the problems in the Philippines. I would really like to see the exploration budget set at no more than 10% of profit. A long life mine might suit the employees but profitable, dividend paying mines suit the owners.


----------



## mgm1a (16 April 2012)

thanks -useful to know fwpike. 
mr lister i also wonder whether mr beatle headed to Siana to berate them?

tech/a - is there an inverted head and shoulders here? left shoulder Sept11, head Dec/JAn and right shoulder April.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
the refrain of the fundamentalist - "the gold is still there"


----------



## mardo (16 April 2012)

mgm1a said:


> thanks -useful to know fwpike.
> mr lister i also wonder whether mr beatle headed to Siana to berate them?
> 
> tech/a - is there an inverted head and shoulders here? left shoulder Sept11, head Dec/JAn and right shoulder April.
> ...




Tech/a will say-Inside day
                      Very low volume
                      No supply or demand.
I say sellers are holders untill Commercial production announcement and detales of gold produced over past two months.


----------



## mrlister (16 April 2012)

mardo said:


> Tech/a will say-Inside day
> Very low volume
> No supply or demand.
> I say sellers are holders untill Commercial production announcement and detales of gold produced over past two months.




Agree


----------



## tech/a (16 April 2012)

mardo said:


> Tech/a will say-Inside day
> Very low volume
> No supply or demand.
> I say sellers are holders untill Commercial production announcement and detales of gold produced over past two months.




Not exactly.
Today was a non event.
Like most days for RED.


----------



## mrlister (16 April 2012)

tech/a said:


> Not exactly.
> Today was a non event.
> Like most days for RED.




Disagree. Today was a major shift from previous days. Today was the first day I have seen for a long time where there have been a lot of buyers that prevented the price dropping. Friday had a large buyer buying up a heap through a bot, of which resulted in a slight rise. Today was a low volume day, cos the buyers weren't pushing it up. But the numbers around market were a long way in favour of buyers. 

In case you didn't notice, the Asx dropped .5%, gold dropped by more, yet RED rose 3.5%. Go figure!!


----------



## tech/a (17 April 2012)

> Disagree




Ok.
You don't have to agree.


----------



## mrlister (19 April 2012)

after thinking long and hard about this. i have a theory......which is based on facts put together

RED has always prided itelf on having no debt, as it is a big draw card for investors. They had the option of taking up a loan of sorts, which is already set up, but didnt take it and chose to capital raise instead. (Im guessing also cos it was set up through previous major shareholder).   

During capital raising presentation, they declare that they will announce commercial production on 1st april. the capital raising is not as successful as hoped, and only raises 15m. 

now we find ourselves in a position where they are producing and selling gold, but without announcing commercial production, as until commercial production is announced, they can still sell, but all proceeds are offset against capital costs of developing mine. 

dot the dots together, and it is in their best interest not to declare commercial production just yet, while they can fill in the gap between what they hoped to raise and use to develop mine, without paying all the applicable taxes that come along with declaring commercial production. 

This is a good scenario for holders, as it

a/ means that the 30 days of continuous production at 60% didn't stop cos of malfunction
b/ although commercial production hasnt been announced, they ARE still producing and selling, and this will become evident next week in the production report. 

crazy to sell now, only way id sell is if negative news was released that would have a long term hold up on site. they may not have been too transparent in announcements, but fundamentals of production and company remain the same. its just the nervous nenny's sellin off now (and very few of them).


----------



## mgm1a (19 April 2012)

mr lister - couple of holes in your theory - they won't be paying taxes for years and TWP Aust. (EPCM contract) will have it contracted they have a deadline to meet - the milestone will ensure another progress payment for them. Besides they would commercially not want , for their own reputation and bidding on future work, to be seen to be dallying, least of all to suit client cashflow need.

i am seriously mentally tussling bailing into another actual producer, as a hedge, knowing that my downside is protected - downside being that this lingers - might miss some upside, but real risk downside - also knowing that investors won't price in full upside even when they make the declaration.


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## mrlister (19 April 2012)

As stated from CFO of RED. 

Please note that even though “Commercial Production” has not been declared, it does not mean that we have not been producing any Gold/Silver. In fact we have shipped and sold a number of shipments to the refiner but until “Commercial Production” has been declared any revenue earned is not classed as Sales but is offset against the capital costs of developing the mine.

I have a mate who is a CFO of a much larger Canadian gold miner. He said that you can set % for commercial production as you choose, and declare as you choose. 

If they are as tax except as you say, what's the point of offsetting!!


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## mgm1a (19 April 2012)

Thanks for details.
it would reduce the capital cost shown on the balance sheet, but they were on target anyway. its a worry if this lingers as the cash would be ebbing, hence the last top-up cap raise.


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## mrlister (19 April 2012)

Exactly. Sales now can go toward the gap in capital raising. 

I don't see this as bad (if is true). All is on track, and gold is being produced. Would have been a hell of worse if the delay was due to that boggy ore!


----------



## mr. jeff (19 April 2012)

mrlister said:


> All is on track, and gold is being produced. Would have been a hell of worse if the delay was due to that boggy ore!




Can you please qualify that statement I am not following the discussion correctly.


----------



## mrlister (19 April 2012)

Gold is being produced and sold, yet commercial production not being announced. I was saying it sounds like its good news that this is occurring, because it makes the reason behind the delay in announcement less likely to be caused by the old sticky ore problem raising its ugly head. 

Reality is the actual reasons why are only known by management. So just shootin the breeze, fillin in time and  readin between the lines, like our old pal Beatle always told us to do with these critters.....while we wait for them to get off their jatz cracker and tell us something!!


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## mrlister (20 April 2012)

Commercial production declared!!


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## reeftip (20 April 2012)

About time too


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## mr. jeff (20 April 2012)

mrlister said:


> Commercial production declared!!




65% of name plate with low recoveries, plenty of ground still to cover but at least it is happening. Congratulations to management and the team on the ground, a long slog to get there.


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## tech/a (20 April 2012)

So what do holders think about the reaction to this long awaited announcement?
Volume is really poor!---well I think it is.


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## mgm1a (20 April 2012)

well doesn't look as though it mattered what the hell they were or weren't doing, judging by the inability to hold the rise.sentiment against gold. perhaps better after a few days for more retail and other interested insto to tackle $2 again? at least whatever downside comes we no is not due to commissioning risk! still valued higher.


----------



## mardo (20 April 2012)

tech/a said:


> So what do holders think about the reaction to this long awaited announcement?
> Volume is really poor!---well I think it is.




Tech/a ,I couldn't agree more-- but i"m a longer term holder and will await for further results.


----------



## tech/a (20 April 2012)

mardo said:


> Tech/a ,I couldn't agree more-- but i"m a longer term holder and will await for further results.




Ive been making this point since I first appeared here in October.
It was 18c then and now after the 10:1 consolidation around the same.

Countless announcements and volumes of discussion and anticipation.
A capital raisings occured and its trading well below that value.$2.12
You all have the patience of a saint.
You wouldnt want to be living off your earnings!
Could be worse you could have taken up the capital raising.


----------



## jancha (20 April 2012)

tech/a said:


> Ive been making this point since I first appeared here in October.
> It was 18c then and now after the 10:1 consolidation around the same.
> 
> Countless announcements and volumes of discussion and anticipation.
> ...




Point taken Tech but not everyone on this forum can trade as you do so what your point is really about is figjam.
 For those that have the patience of a saint hang in there.


----------



## tech/a (20 April 2012)

jancha said:


> Point taken Tech but not everyone on this forum can trade as you do so what your point is really about is figjam.
> For those that have the patience of a saint hang in there.




Rubbish of course you can!


----------



## mrlister (23 April 2012)

fact is the fundamentals haven't changed. if you don't want to be actively trading, then its relatively safe to say you will make money here eventually.  Patience certainly is going to be tested on quite a few though.

quarterly is due out next week. you would expect that a lot of people are keen to see this before investing here, seeing as there has been a CR in this quarter.


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## fwpike (24 April 2012)

Provided we can stop money being spent on wildcat exploration, the gold is effectively being put in the bank in our names. That pressure must force up the sp but in any event, provided the money is distributed, it doesn't matter to me. I want to live off these earnings for the next few years.


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## mrlister (24 April 2012)

fwpike said:


> Provided we can stop money being spent on wildcat exploration, the gold is effectively being put in the bank in our names. That pressure must force up the sp but in any event, provided the money is distributed, it doesn't matter to me. I want to live off these earnings for the next few years.




i hope you like 2 minute noodles!!


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## tech/a (25 April 2012)

fwpike said:


> Provided we can stop money being spent on wildcat exploration, the gold is effectively being put in the bank in our names. That pressure must force up the sp but in any event, provided the money is distributed, it doesn't matter to me. I want to live off these earnings for the next few years.




How are you going to do that?
Presuming you need say $50k a year to live.


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## mrlister (26 April 2012)

this quarterly really needs to be good news and put some confidence back into investors. beyond this, news wise ..there is empty space for quite a while. that CR really has put a dent in the confidence of many.


----------



## fastbuck1 (26 April 2012)

tech/a said:


> How are you going to do that?
> Presuming you need say $50k a year to live.




i beleive the idea is to live of  the dividends how ever i don't exspect there to be one this year , if there is it will be peanuts........its very strange that we hav'nt heard from Beatle, i wonder if he has been banned from this site as he was banned from H/C, could be on another site, way be worth checking........


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## mrlister (26 April 2012)

You must have a hell of a lot of shares if you plan in livin off dividends!!


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## Boggo (26 April 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> .......its very strange that we hav'nt heard from Beatle........




No its not, its very common actually, there is usually a new thread every month where we get the newbies quoting either management, google or dividend yield and when reality kicks in they just ride off into the sunset.

Seen it all before


----------



## mgm1a (27 April 2012)

boggo. hardly. 
beatle has been invested for well over a decade since Greenstone days. 

lets' hope all well with him, but i see his profile has last activity mid March. Not usual, unless he's giving posting a break.


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## Boggo (27 April 2012)

I do hope that all is well with him though.


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## Sapling (29 April 2012)

To me charts suggest a possible increase in SP on monday with inside day on friday and possible double bottom forming? Your thoughts appreciated.


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## mrlister (29 April 2012)

Monday has quarterly due, so charts aside I would expect a rise. But this is red, so who knows


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## mrlister (1 May 2012)

Red seems to have settled in around this price. Can't really see what would make it move too much. There is very little volume.


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## Buckfont (8 May 2012)

Where is everybody, beatle, mardo, mgm1a, anderbond !!?  This thread is dying a slow death - just like the SP. Any hopefuls left? Not me.


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## jancha (8 May 2012)

Buckfont said:


> Where is everybody, beatle, mardo, mgm1a, anderbond !!?  This thread is dying a slow death - just like the SP. Any hopefuls left? Not me.




Maybe Beatles been slowly selling of his shares.....the amount of times he's bought on the dips thru his postings he should have had quite a few to sell!!
Fundamentally the sp doesn't look right. Before RED were in production they had a sp of more than 23c = $2.30 and now sitting @ $1.56 = 15.6c.
The quarterly report was nothing out of the norm....the silver ore content was to be high as expected from the area to where the ore was taken so whats the go?
I guess it's just another opportunistic time to buy more RED as Beatle would say (Geez hope the poor bugger's alright). Who knows...He could have been the sad looking fella holding an empty bottle of red in line at Centre Link the other day. lol

Now do we have to wait for the next quarterly before the buyers get interested in RED again?


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## Starcraftmazter (8 May 2012)

When does the sp ever look right fundamentally? Probably never.

Anyway, good buying opportunity hopefully about to emerge.


----------



## Chasero (8 May 2012)

Gold stocks are really underperforming 

NCM has dropped a pretty penny. I usually look at the top few market cap gold stocks. If a few of them drop the rest of the specs follow... and it looks like NCM is still on a down trend unfortunately.


----------



## Buckfont (8 May 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> When does the sp ever look right fundamentally? Probably never.
> 
> Anyway, good buying opportunity hopefully about to emerge.




A good buying opportunity.........how many times have I heard that.: It was a gbo at 1.90 and at 1.70 etc and now and all points in between. It`s only a gbo if a profit can be made or the long termers start growing grass from their ears, listening for that whizzbang announcement and further pos. drilling results.

Time to log in beatle, we all miss you.


----------



## tech/a (8 May 2012)

Beatle made and continued to make some pretty stupid comments with regard to RED.

He couldnt pull the wool over some of us old timers.
So my guess is he's gone somewhere else that will
agree with him.
Either that or hes lost a motzza!


----------



## Starcraftmazter (8 May 2012)

Buckfont said:


> A good buying opportunity.........how many times have I heard that.: It was a gbo at 1.90 and at 1.70 etc and now and all points in between.




Wouldn't hear that from me. It will be a good buying opportunity when it bottoms out at long term support (if it goes there).


----------



## Trembling Hand (9 May 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Wouldn't hear that from me. It will be a good buying opportunity when it bottoms out at long term support (if it goes there).




Well its right on support now. Go get it.





But then again is this on support yet?


----------



## Starcraftmazter (9 May 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Well its right on support now. Go get it.




Doesn't look like it's at $1.1 yet


----------



## jancha (9 May 2012)

Put Newcrest and Reds charts together and they look very similiar. So why are they dropping so heavily (Newcrest down around 30% from their high and ps a no penny stock)  Gold has been at $1600 an oz before and bounced back but if you look at NCM they basically have just been in a down trend . Is short term because of Countries in trouble selling their gold assets to keep there heads above water or has gold had it's run and the market pricing it in?


----------



## Starcraftmazter (9 May 2012)

jancha said:


> Is short term because of Countries in trouble selling their gold assets to keep there heads above water or has gold had it's run and the market pricing it in?




I have not heard of even a single instance of any country even considering selling it's gold assets. Indeed that would be downright insanity at a time like this.

Gold will have had it's run when the USD is finished.


----------



## Chasero (15 May 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Doesn't look like it's at $1.1 yet




You might get your wish.

All the gold stocks tanking.

Media reporting gold wiping out gains for the year doesn't help :


----------



## Starcraftmazter (15 May 2012)

Chasero said:


> You might get your wish.
> 
> All the gold stocks tanking.
> 
> Media reporting gold wiping out gains for the year doesn't help :




Mainstream media is a wonderful contrarian indicator.


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## CanOz (15 May 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Mainstream media is a wonderful contrarian indicator.




Looks like a typical risk off move in a deflationary environment, at this stage...

CanOz


----------



## tech/a (15 May 2012)

*Again*

People fully blinkered and un able to conceed that RED is affected by Gold Price.
Blindly holding on.
All the other rubbish is of little short term value (announcements).

I believe someone bet me a house at $1.20.


----------



## notting (15 May 2012)

tech/a said:


> *Again*
> I believe someone bet me a house at $1.20.




Fortunately you have it in writing!


----------



## fastbuck1 (15 May 2012)

tech/a said:


> *Again*
> 
> People fully blinkered and un able to conceed that RED is affected by Gold Price.
> Blindly holding on.
> ...




if red hits $1.20 i think i will sell my house and buy more red......red has been panick sold.........


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## tech/a (15 May 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> if red hits $1.20 i think i will sell my house and buy more red......red has been panick sold.........




Explain what the panic is actually?


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## fastbuck1 (15 May 2012)

tech/a said:


> Explain what the panic is actually?




the panick is fear of not knowing, have seen this back in 2008 when red dropped to .028 with its cash backing @.06


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## tech/a (15 May 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> the panick is fear of not knowing, have seen this back in 2008 when red dropped to .028 with its cash backing @.06




So even with all the announcements your sure holders of RED are panicking .
Sure it's not simply a case of no interest.
I don't see panic I see slow bleeding.

Gold drops RED drops.


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## fastbuck1 (16 May 2012)

tech/a said:


> So even with all the announcements your sure holders of RED are panicking .
> Sure it's not simply a case of no interest.
> I don't see panic I see slow bleeding.
> 
> Gold drops RED drops.




people will also sell on hope of further sp decline so they can buy back in at a lower price.......


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## tech/a (16 May 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> people will also sell on hope of further sp decline so they can buy back in at a lower price.......




Yes and the sooner they did that-----the better their chances ($2.30 ish).
*But many will sell never to return.*


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## dave1234 (17 May 2012)

Interesting that beetle hasn't been seen since this stock started its rapid decent. Hope he didn't loan against the house to buy more stock when it was great value.


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## Buckfont (17 May 2012)

dave1234 said:


> Interesting that beetle hasn't been seen since this stock started its rapid decent. Hope he didn't loan against the house to buy more stock when it was great value.




Probably can`t face the music, though I`d prefer that that isn`t the case. It would be good to hear what he currently thinks but alas it may be more of the same. Nothing worse than having to go hide under a rock. Mighty cold there.


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## fastbuck1 (17 May 2012)

Buckfont said:


> Probably can`t face the music, though I`d prefer that that isn`t the case. It would be good to hear what he currently thinks but alas it may be more of the same. Nothing worse than having to go hide under a rock. Mighty cold there.




Beetles last post was back in march, i recently sent him a private message but no reply as yet.....very strange indeed.


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## Chasero (17 May 2012)

dave1234 said:


> Interesting that beetle hasn't been seen since this stock started its rapid decent. Hope he didn't loan against the house to buy more stock when it was great value.




Doubt the stocks decline has anything to do with it.

Red went from $1.80 to $2.30 last September for the gold pour announcement, then down to $1.60ish and beatle kept on posting..

Hope he comes back soon


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## mrlister (17 May 2012)

Well we can't rely on management to keep people up to date, so people kinda need Beatle!!


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## jancha (17 May 2012)

IMO REDs a good buy and so are a lot of the gold stocks atm. NCM ect have been hit badly over the last few months. 
But this is Only a good buy if your bullish on gold. 
Bit of a bounce back overnight testing time.
RED in particular having the dry season and production in full swing by the end of next quarter should be interesting. A doubt we'll hear any new announcements until then going on management previous record.
I sold out a few weeks ago in Red but have been slowly buying back in at $1.30.
Of course that doesn't mean it cant go lower. Maybe Tech knows more.


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## mrlister (18 May 2012)

Gold up 2.5% ATM. Should see some more interest today you would hope. Nst had a really good day today, maybe more value will be seen here now?


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## tech/a (18 May 2012)

Today the correlation with gold price will become clear.

There are lower risk entries at this level.

The concern for me is that price will rise then plateau for a very long period.


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## jancha (18 May 2012)

tech/a said:


> Today the correlation with gold price will become clear.
> 
> There are lower risk entries at this level.
> 
> The concern for me is that price will rise then plateau for a very long period.




What do you class as a very long period? Im looking at selling again at around $1.50. Thats where i feel it will sit at least until REDs next announcement.
Tech what are your thoughts providing gold stays between 1500 1600 for the next few months?


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## tech/a (18 May 2012)

jancha said:


> What do you class as a very long period? Im looking at selling again at around $1.50. Thats where i feel it will sit at least until REDs next announcement.
> Tech what are your thoughts providing gold stays between 1500 1600 for the next few months?






Well if its not clear to the masses that REDS price is driven by the gold price and very little by its announcements then they need their head RED.

If gold stays between 1500 and 1600 for the next few months then RED will stagnate until it moves.
If it dives there are going to be some pretty un happy beatles---urr peoples


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## mrlister (5 June 2012)

Gosh I didn't know gold prices were up 18% over last 2 days!!


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## Boggo (12 June 2012)

Little old RED popped up in a review of patterns tonight.
A couple of potential target areas if it breaks out below that the last few days.

(click to expand)


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## jancha (13 June 2012)

Off to the Phillipines this week and will be checking RED out for myself.
Who knows i may even find a trail of empty red bottles that will lead to the missing Beatle.


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## mrlister (13 June 2012)

jancha said:


> Off to the Phillipines this week and will be checking RED out for myself.
> Who knows i may even find a trail of empty red bottles that will lead to the missing Beatle.




There was that report of someone falling down the mine early this year? Has he been spotted after that?


----------



## mrlister (13 June 2012)

Boggo said:


> Little old RED popped up in a review of patterns tonight.
> A couple of potential target areas if it breaks out below that the last few days.
> 
> (click to expand)




Then there is tech stating its driven by gold prices. But then again that chart also looks very similar to when it shot up in January! Are you looking to buy in and want prices lower?


----------



## Boggo (13 June 2012)

mrlister said:


> Are you looking to buy in and want prices lower?




Its just one of about 30 that have hit potential turning points (wave 2, 3, 4 or ABC correction) which places them on a secondary watchlist.
There is still nothing special about RED, it is really just a 15 cent stock with poor volume that could have a couple of profitable days in it for the nimble or maybe a longer period if it turns convincingly at predictable points.


----------



## mrlister (13 June 2012)

What is special about it is that it is just finally producing gold, at a very low cost. It has 0 debt. A very good P/E ratio, it's a very low price, it is on the ASX 300 and Currently no real problems on site that will prevent the forecasted targets, as reinforced by managements progress update last week. The mine is now cash flow positive, plus there is an additional 16 mill in the bank if needed. 

All fundamentally still on track, just not quite there yet with a full quarter of production to gain confidence. They lost quite a bit of confidence with the CR so will take a bit to come back. All has happened at a bad time globally, with gold price dropping significantly, and the euro troubles hampering most of the market. NST is very much bucking the trend at the moment, and it's all a bit odd too. They had double the normal volume today and rose 7 odd percent. Bets on that they announce some good news soon. 

As for RED, 1.3 seems to be a really strong support level, and I'm thinking it won't get much below there. But a lot of this really depends on the Greek elections thus week, the euro response if the left anti bailout party form government. Cos without stability there, all stocks are pointing south in the short term, it's just a case of how far your stock has already bottomed out. for me, I think RED is pretty close to the bottom of its pit. Of course I could be wrong, and I hope I'm not. But realistically, below the levels of around 1.3, everyone is losing. There isnt many that bought below that. So when the company fundamentals remain the same, and gold price is still relatively steady....why would you sell at a loss? Isnt it a fundamental rule of trading to buy low and sell high? This sentiment is reflected on the volume going through around the 1.3 mark. There just isnt anyone selling!! 

Of course if gold dives this could change. 

Of course I could just be talking a bunch of rubbish too. Who the hell knows!!


----------



## mrlister (14 June 2012)

mrlister said:


> NST is very much bucking the trend at the moment, and it's all a bit odd too. They had double the normal volume today and rose 7 odd percent. Bets on that they announce some good news soon.




well i got that part right. they are in trading halt again. ****s me that news of this got out before the actual market knew.


----------



## mrlister (19 June 2012)

Can't believe that red has made 2 public announcements in one month. I just wish they would learn how to time them better. Investor presentation would have had full effect yesterday, not on a down day like today!!


----------



## notting (19 June 2012)

mrlister said:


> Investor presentation would have had full effect yesterday, not on a down day like today!!




Gold sentiment in our market is strong today!


----------



## mrlister (19 June 2012)

I'm glad boggo isn't my financial advisor!!


----------



## Boggo (19 June 2012)

mrlister said:


> I'm glad boggo isn't my financial advisor!!




You would be struggling to get anyone to give financial advice on a penny dreadful such as RED.

If it holds potential support above 1.72 tomorrow then it may join about 400 others as a short term trading stock again with 17 cent behaviour 

(click to expand)


----------



## mrlister (19 June 2012)

Ha ha. I'm just going to be happy for the moment, and hope gold prices or the Europeans don't mess it up for me overnight. 

I was quite happy with its relatively small pullback though. Thought it was gonna sink back quite a bit for a while there.


----------



## fwpike (21 June 2012)

Red put out two announcements in two days, one being "updated". No clue as to the difference. Can anyone spot the difference please?
Cheers


----------



## Buckfont (21 June 2012)

fwpike said:


> Red put out two announcements in two days, one being "updated". No clue as to the difference. Can anyone spot the difference please?
> Cheers




Fwpike, gotta admit that I couldn`t see anything glaringly obvious either. Why didn`t they just put up the extra info instead of rehashing the whole thing. Like you I`d be interested to know, and whatever it was, it had minimal effect on the sp.


----------



## Sapling (21 June 2012)

Slide no.15 on second ann. is an addition. It's titled 'Siana Mining Reserves'


----------



## mrlister (21 June 2012)

Dam world economy!! RED. Finally starts to lift, the Greeks finally start to get it together and now the yanks go and throw the spanner in!!! COMEONNNN, work with us!!!!


----------



## Boggo (21 June 2012)

mrlister said:


> I'm glad boggo isn't my financial advisor!!




My financial adviser who is a bit of a realist suggested last night that I go short today with a potential target of 1.259.

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a (22 June 2012)

Boggo said:


> My financial adviser who is a bit of a realist suggested last night that I go short today with a potential target of 1.259.
> 
> (click to expand)




This was a nice move of around 50%

Still I know who my advisor would be!


----------



## Boggo (22 June 2012)

Looks like someone has had enough. Current market depth just after the close.


----------



## mrlister (22 June 2012)

Pretty easy to find the negatives in the current market and when gold plunges. That is something called a fundamental.... A couple of days back the charts were lookin pretty good for RED. LI guess I'm just glad I didn't take tech's advice and go on a worthwhile stock called MAD at the 1.30 mark! 

Seems as though all you 2 do is weed out the negatives. Pretty sad existence if you ask me. Reality is that the last 2 days have been terrible globally, especially for gold which is now trading mid 1.5k ish. NCM around 23. NST around .8. Etc etc. I suggest you both go buy a dog.


----------



## Boggo (23 June 2012)

You may need to chill out and just deal with what is actually happening with the stock price, regardless of what is causing it.
My recent posts on this stock have been statements of fact, not a personal attack on you.

Below is an extract from a post by Joe on another thread earlier this week.

If there is some part of my analysis, charts or recent statements (within the rules) about RED that you do not understand then feel free to ask.



> Many holders do tend to get their knickers in a twist when anyone expresses a bearish view on whatever stock is being discussed. My policy here at ASF is all views are welcome, as long as the person expressing them explains their thinking and abides by the forum rules.


----------



## jancha (25 June 2012)

Boggo said:


> My financial adviser who is a bit of a realist suggested last night that I go short today with a potential target of 1.259.
> 
> (click to expand)




For a penny stock why would your financial adviser even bother with RED unless your interested in it?
Oh by the way looks like that so called big seller whose had enough changed his mind and cancelled his sell order...such is the market.


----------



## Boggo (25 June 2012)

jancha said:


> For a penny stock why would your financial adviser even bother with RED unless your interested in it?




See post 2712 above for a picture of my financial advisor 

Probably interested in anything that can make a quick squid for its owner


----------



## jancha (25 June 2012)

Boggo said:


> See post 2712 above for a picture of my financial advisor
> 
> Probably interested in anything that can make a quick squid for its owner




Your financial adviser needs cosmetic surgery and maybe a weight loss program.


----------



## Boggo (25 June 2012)

jancha said:


> Your financial adviser needs cosmetic surgery and maybe a weight loss program.




I'll pass that on


----------



## Boggo (3 July 2012)

A follow up to post 2712 above.
It bounced off potential short term support near 1.38 today but I suspect that this is just a minor interruption to the downtrend.

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a (3 July 2012)

Nice weight loss.


----------



## Boggo (3 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Nice weight loss.




Yes, I passed that message on


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## jancha (4 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Nice weight loss.




lol Went to Manila looking for beatle but with no luck. I dont think he's over there....the reds are too expensive!! Everything else is cheap tho.
Didn't actually go to the RED camp as there was a typhoon happening (wet season). None the less heard some interesting stories about Mindanao island where decapitation of westerners has occured in the past. ( Not a nice place to be wandering around) Mostly for the part the Phillipines are mainly Catholics tho with many churches. The is exception of Mindanao island which is mainly Muslims and where most the trouble is. RED however is at the top end of the island and is relatively safe providing you keep a modest profile and respect their customs. Sovereign risk....you betcha


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## jancha (5 July 2012)

One big buyer got the ball rolling with RED today a massive 600,000 in volume. While most stocks are down REDs up by 7%. Maybe an announcement coming out?
 Boggo maybe someone hasn't had enough hey.


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## mrlister (5 July 2012)

Don't expect a response from B1 and B2 when things are positive.


----------



## jancha (5 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> Don't expect a response from B1 and B2 when things are positive.




No i disagree with that unless they dont have a come back they usually respond.
 They take as good as they give.


----------



## dave1234 (5 July 2012)

But what reason did the SP increase today? Just because someone bought a large parcel of shares?


----------



## jancha (5 July 2012)

dave1234 said:


> But what reason did the SP increase today? Just because someone bought a large parcel of shares?




The large buy order took out most of those wanting to sell right up to $1.54 so why would anyone want to buy 600,000 shares in RED is more the question?
Hey maybe the fella who pulled the 100,000 sell order changed his mind about having enough and decided he didn't have enough after all? 
Boggo may have the answer i dont know.
 Boggo could also circle that buy order to be fair and unbias like he did with the sell order.lol


----------



## tech/a (5 July 2012)

Sustained buying until about 11 am
See if there is any follow through.
Id expect that the floor of $1.40 ish is now set.
Good day if you were nimble.

But then again having a look at it as a whole 
it wasnt an extra ordinary day and price did
sell off toward the close.

RED still has a lot of work to do.


----------



## skyQuake (5 July 2012)

Nice confirmation bias in this thread


----------



## mrlister (5 July 2012)

until that big buy today, i was getting a little concerned it may drop to mid 30's. i haven't been concerned like that for a while now. i was actually looking to put a buy order in at the mid 30's as it looked set to get there. not cos i think it will sky rocket in the short term, but they do have their quarterly due in a few weeks. this will bring short term gains, prob to around the 1.70 mark. whether it stays there depends upon gold price and world economy.

longer term for RED i still have faith in. the fundamentals are still there. they, like most stocks will take a long time to recover. but they will, and even if it takes 12-18 months. im pretty confident that my current money will be doubled,as ive now shortened myself down to about 1.37.


----------



## tech/a (5 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> until that big buy today, i was getting a little concerned it may drop to mid 30's. i haven't been concerned like that for a while now. i was actually looking to put a buy order in at the mid 30's as it looked set to get there. not cos i think it will sky rocket in the short term, but they do have their quarterly due in a few weeks. this will bring short term gains, prob to around the 1.70 mark. whether it stays there depends upon gold price and world economy.
> 
> longer term for RED i still have faith in. the fundamentals are still there. they, like most stocks will take a long time to recover. but they will, and even if it takes 12-18 months. im pretty confident that my current money will be doubled,as ive now shortened myself down to about 1.37.




And how have you shortened yourself down to $1.37?

Stock hasn't been low enough to average down for years.
Amazing!


----------



## So_Cynical (5 July 2012)

jancha said:


> lol Went to Manila looking for beatle but with no luck. I dont think he's over there....the reds are too expensive!! Everything else is cheap tho.
> Didn't actually go to the RED camp as there was a typhoon happening (wet season). None the less heard some interesting stories about Mindanao island where decapitation of westerners has occured in the past. ( Not a nice place to be wandering around) Mostly for the part the Phillipines are mainly Catholics tho with many churches. *The is exception of Mindanao island which is mainly Muslims and where most the trouble is. RED however is at the top end of the island and is relatively safe providing you keep a modest profile* and respect their customs. Sovereign risk....you betcha




Northern Mindanao is fine with hardly a Muslim extremist or otherwise to be seen....political risk in the Philippines, sure is...this is a country with almost zero mainstream foreign investment and so no real competition in the economy, there are big incumbent locals with enormous political influence.


----------



## mrlister (5 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> And how have you shortened yourself down to $1.37?
> 
> Stock hasn't been low enough to average down for years.
> Amazing!




RED was at 1.27 only a month or so ago, where i picked up a large a parcel (on my scale)... and been fluctuating between 1.38 and 1.6 ever since. not too hard to do the maths from here.

AMAZING....nup. i actually want it to dip down again before month end so i can pick up a few more.


----------



## Boggo (5 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Boggo may have the answer i dont know.
> Boggo could also circle that buy order to be fair and unbias like he did with the sell order.lol




Nope, don't have the answer.

Regarding the circling, I will circle what I see, I wasn't around today except for a quick glimpse around midday but looking at the course of trades and the closing position I am thinking that a lot of sellers were capitalising on the run up, lets see where the next few days take us.

The fact is that I am just calling what is likely to happen in the future based on what is happening at any point in time shouldn't be taken personally just because it is not what you want to see or hear.


----------



## Boggo (5 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> *RED was at 1.27 only a month or so ago**, where i picked up a large a parcel* (on my scale)... and been fluctuating between 1.38 and 1.6 ever since. not too hard to do the maths from here.




??
Are you sure, the last time that RED was 1.27 was on 12th July 2011, the recent low was at 1.28 on the 31st May 2012 and it only traded 5000 shares at that price.


----------



## jancha (5 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Nope, don't have the answer.
> 
> Regarding the circling, I will circle what I see, I wasn't around today except for a quick glimpse around midday but looking at the course of trades and the closing position I am thinking that a lot of sellers were capitalising on the run up, lets see where the next few days take us.
> 
> The fact is that I am just calling what is likely to happen in the future based on what is happening at any point in time shouldn't be taken personally just because it is not what you want to see or hear.




You sound like a politician. Only see what you want and have an answer for everything. My interest in RED is purely as an observation as not holding any so i'm not really concern either way only that you fail to bring anything positive to the table. 
However I didn't realized you had the morning off but to be fair as you pointed out in the past a seller (circled) of a meer 100,000 then why should'nt you be over whelmed with a buyer @ 600,000 and bring that forward?
Simplify. You bought up the point about a seller @ 100,000 wanting to get out and yet a buyer @ 600,000. No mention. Only negative points you put forward. Why? If it's because your tired as Tech has pointed out with Beatles hype in the past I'd understand but he's been long gone.


----------



## Boggo (5 July 2012)

jancha said:


> However I didn't realized you had the morning off but to be fair as you pointed out in the past a seller (circled) of a meer 100,000 then why should'nt you be over whelmed with a buyer @ 600,000 and bring that forward?




I don't get overwhelmed by such things !



jancha said:


> Simplify. You bought up the point about a seller @ 100,000 wanting to get out and yet a buyer @ 600,000. No mention.




OK, I will try again, I was watching when the seller appeared, I wasn't watching when the major event occurred today that will make front page on the fin review tomorrow and cause a rally in the DOW tonight


----------



## jancha (5 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> I don't get overwhelmed by such things !
> 
> 
> 
> OK, I will try again, I was watching when the seller appeared, I wasn't watching when the major event occurred today that will make front page on the fin review tomorrow and cause a rally in the DOW tonight




Funny fella. Exactly my point. Why would you want to bring up the fact of a trivial seller @ 100,000 shares and circle it on this thread?
Is that important to thread? Would that send the DOW plummeting?lol


----------



## mrlister (5 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> ??
> Are you sure, the last time that RED was 1.27 was on 12th July 2011, the recent low was at 1.28 on the 31st May 2012 and it only traded 5000 shares at that price.




Your right, I just checked. It was 1.295. 1.27 was where my order sat for quite a while before I changed it.


----------



## Boggo (6 July 2012)

Media report on RED


----------



## jancha (7 July 2012)

Well I'll be a Monkeys Uncle.. Haven't they got better things to write about.
Anyway Tech Boggo your technical analyst starting to hit headlines. 
You might even become that famous you could make it on the front page of the NT news...make change from having a croc or a car wreck on it.lol


----------



## tech/a (7 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Media report on RED




Ahh that explains the paparazzi this morning.


----------



## mrlister (7 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Well I'll be a Monkeys Uncle.. Haven't they got better things to write about.
> Anyway Tech Boggo your technical analyst starting to hit headlines.
> You might even become that famous you could make it on the front page of the NT news...make change from having a croc or a car wreck on it.lol




You mean don't boggo have something better to do?


----------



## 5oclock (7 July 2012)

I swear I am gunna string a heap of these posts together and make a joke book out of it!!!!!!!


----------



## jancha (7 July 2012)

5oclock said:


> I swear I am gunna string a heap of these posts together and make a joke book out of it!!!!!!!




Too late..... Boggo (stud muffin) already started one Called... "Share Trading The Technical Way" by Figjam Boggo. Endorsed by Stuper Duck.


----------



## fastbuck1 (9 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Too late..... Boggo (stud muffin) already started one Called... "Share Trading The Technical Way" by Figjam Boggo. Endorsed by Stuper Duck.




pity they never read some of Beatles posts...


----------



## skc (9 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Media report on RED




This is a joke right? What's the paper?


----------



## tech/a (9 July 2012)

skc said:


> This is a joke right? What's the paper?




Noooooo!


----------



## mardo (9 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Noooooo!




Dear" Stuper Duck" as a very long term holder I am in a fair bit of pain at the moment, however like Beatle I still believe in the fundamentals & will continue to hold as i believe the next 12 months will completly vindicate this stock, as the macro effect of the world finacial institutions are getting worse not better.(How can US Bonds realistically been seen as the safest investment option on risk on days.)Get me straight i do appreciate your technical analyse and keep up the good work as you expose RED to the national newspaper scene.


----------



## skc (9 July 2012)

New headline for tomorrow...


----------



## mardo (9 July 2012)

skc said:


> New headline for tomorrow...
> 
> View attachment 47817




One slight problem RED5 already trade as (Greenstone Resources) in the Phillipines.


----------



## Boggo (9 July 2012)

That process took about as long as expected corn:


----------



## jancha (10 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> That process took about as long as expected corn:




And your comments are as to be expected as well as your sence of humour Figjam (alias Stud Muffin) lol


----------



## skyQuake (10 July 2012)

mardo said:


> One slight problem RED5 already trade as (Greenstone Resources) in the Phillipines.




Really? Whats the ticker code?
Can only find Greenstone Res in CN/US and its a different firm


----------



## mardo (10 July 2012)

skyQuake said:


> Really? Whats the ticker code?
> Can only find Greenstone Res in CN/US and its a different firm




Hi skyQuake --It was said at AGM meeting by G.E.
If you Google " GREENSTONE RESOURCES " you will find they manage the operations at Siana gold project  and shipped the first gold shipment.Have fun and check it out.


----------



## skyQuake (10 July 2012)

cheers, found it. Fyi for others

Siana gold mine in phillipines held by Greenstone res, which red 5 has a 90% beneficial interest

Quite different to the Greenstone Resources listed in Canada


----------



## tech/a (11 July 2012)

Like this quick reversal today off some good volume
So have a parcel looking for a quick trade.
At $1.36 Stop $1.31 target up to $1.69


----------



## jancha (11 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Like this quick reversal today off some good volume
> So have a parcel looking for a quick trade.
> At $1.36 Stop $1.31 target up to $1.69




So target up to $1.69 with a stop loss at $1.31. Up to $1.69? How to you calculate when to get out and take your profit or do you wait till RED gets around the mark? I bought back in @ $1.37.
If you have time Tech have a quick look at SXY and your thoughts on it.


----------



## tech/a (11 July 2012)

> How to you calculate when to get out and take your profit




Technical analysis of the price action.
But most see this more like Voodoo.


----------



## jancha (11 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Technical analysis of the price action.
> But most see this more like Voodoo.




In REDs case isn't that a bit tricky with the general low volume of of trade?


----------



## tech/a (11 July 2012)

jancha said:


> In REDs case isn't that a bit tricky with the general low volume of of trade?




Can be but it's generally apparent .


----------



## Buckfont (12 July 2012)

Noticed the Inside Trader have a buy recommendation. Might fire it up a bit.  To quote.........

RED 5 (RED)

Here's a gold company with no debt, low cash costs for extraction and operates in a stable country, the Philippines.

It has had some slight delays in production (which is not unusual) but should be getting some results and news out soon. It is currently near 52 week lows and looks like a good entry point.

Smart money is re-entering and 3 brokers have a BUY rating on it.


----------



## jancha (12 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Like this quick reversal today off some good volume
> So have a parcel looking for a quick trade.
> At $1.36 Stop $1.31 target up to $1.69




Well Gold in general looks a bit shakey. RED down as low as $1.25 eek!!
Hope you got your quick trade or did you get stopped out?


----------



## Boggo (12 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> My financial adviser who is a bit of a realist suggested last night that I go short today with a potential target of 1.259.




And another one hits the mark, the voodoo strikes again...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=8971&page=136&p=713296&viewfull=1#post713296


----------



## jancha (12 July 2012)

Buckfont said:


> Noticed the Inside Trader have a buy recommendation. Might fire it up a bit.  To quote.........
> 
> RED 5 (RED)
> 
> ...




Always a worry when they have a buy on a stock.....usually means the reverse....SELL!


----------



## jancha (12 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> And another one hits the mark, the voodoo strikes again...
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=8971&page=136&p=713296&viewfull=1#post713296




Figjam as entered the building or should i say thread.


----------



## Boggo (12 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Figjam as *entered* the building or should i say thread.




Re-entered


----------



## tech/a (12 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Figjam as entered the building or should i say thread.




Dukky left the building at $1.31


----------



## mardo (12 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> And another one hits the mark, the voodoo strikes again...
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=8971&page=136&p=713296&viewfull=1#post713296




I take my hat off to you .Fine work at the moment unless it crashes further.We might be in with a chance because Tech/a has left the building.


----------



## notting (12 July 2012)

Take heart.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48156196


----------



## Boggo (12 July 2012)

notting said:


> Take heart.
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/48156196




I hear footsteps, it may be tech/a


----------



## jancha (12 July 2012)

mardo said:


> I take my hat off to you .Fine work at the moment unless it crashes further.We might be in with a chance because Tech/a has left the building.




Once in awhile we all get it right..... some more than others. Hey Figjam lol


----------



## Boggo (12 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Once in awhile we all get it right..... *some more than others*. Hey Figjam lol




Accept that and live with it.

Can we just get back to the topic of RED and accept that there are opinions and methods that may not be to your liking or understanding, it does not make infantile schoolyard taunting acceptable.
Continue with it if you want but I think the majority on here would just like to see many of the available ways of achieving an outcome.

BTW, we are waiting for yours :remybussi


----------



## Buckfont (12 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Always a worry when they have a buy on a stock.....usually means the reverse....SELL!




Exactly, hence the roll eyes (sarcastic)


----------



## jancha (12 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Accept that and live with it.
> 
> Can we just get back to the topic of RED and accept that there are opinions and methods that may not be to your liking or understanding, it does not make infantile schoolyard taunting acceptable.
> Continue with it if you want but I think the majority on here would just like to see many of the available ways of achieving an outcome.
> ...




Calm down Boogo I am on the topic of RED and actually holding them atm. You?
Unlike yourself i dont go bragging about how good I am when i'm correct or is gloating something to do with the topic of RED?
 Majority on here would like to make an income and you & Techs contribution towards this goal has been useful so if i've hurt your little feelings with a bit of bantering which you yourself have given out in the past i apologise.


----------



## jancha (13 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> The comments on this RED thread seem to be following a familiar pattern.
> There are usually two each year that get intense and tend to provide some humour.
> I was wondering if there would be another before the end of the year and it looks like RED is it.
> 
> ...




This is about when Boogo step up to the plate in REDs thread. Cant see any charts just a bit of humour and banter.


----------



## jancha (13 July 2012)

Back to REDs fundamentals... As i mentioned i'd flew over to Manila last month to check out the mine site however with a typhoon brewing didn't risk the plane trip to Mindanao in case i got stranded there and missed my flight back. However CanaccordBGF paid a recent site visit to RED and hence has them at speculative buy with a price target of $3.20.
High Gold Grades & Silver Credits will make RED one of the lowest cost produces on the ASX. With No Debt No Hedge and a favourable fiscal regime.
Anyway an interesting evaluation by CanaccordBGF of RED on site. 
 PS REDs Activity report should be out the week after next.


----------



## Boggo (14 July 2012)

jancha said:


> This is about when Boogo step up to the plate in REDs thread. *Cant see any charts* just a bit of humour and banter.




There ya go, should be able to see them now, a repeat of the one from this link is below...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=8971&page=136&p=713296&viewfull=1#post713296

and a second one from today below that 

(click to expand)


----------



## jancha (14 July 2012)

I dont think i'll need a chart to tell me where the market will be on Monday.
 Dow up 170pts Gold up $28 & Oil $1.28 as i speak.
 All staying about the same I would think that RED will be up 4% or 5% on Monday so for those who bought cheaply on Thurs and Friday last week they could make a bit of a profit. imo.


----------



## tech/a (14 July 2012)

jancha said:


> I dont think i'll need a chart to tell me where the market will be on Monday.
> Dow up 170pts Gold up $28 & Oil $1.28 as i speak.
> All staying about the same I would think that RED will be up 4% or 5% on Monday so for those who bought cheaply on Thurs and Friday last week they could make a bit of a profit. imo.




One day (If it is a good day) wont make a trend.

But does look good from a charting point of view.
Friday showed some resilience. Monday would not be a bad trade long. anywhere above Fridays High with a stop at Fridays Low.


----------



## jancha (14 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> One day (If it is a good day) wont make a trend.
> 
> But does look good from a charting point of view.
> Friday showed some resilience. Monday would not be a bad trade long. anywhere above Fridays High with a stop at Fridays Low.




True one day does'nt make a trend but as you say Friday did show resilience and on that basis with the Dow and Gold up last night RED should be up at least 5% at some point on Monday imo. Mind you even with that I'd be still down as i bought back in too soon with a base cost of $1.36.( missed out on picking some more up on Friday at $1.25 to average it down further). Not too concerned tho as I think RED will head back to more positive territory later when their bank balance starts to increase. 
I for one will be interested in REDs next report which wont be far away.


----------



## mrlister (14 July 2012)

Got some more on Friday at an average at a bit above 1.27. My holding has the same value now as when I first bought into RED, but now I have quite a few more. Be nice to start seeing some fruit soon for all the stress.

With the quarterly due soon, and the gold price picking up, I expect a little spike. But still can't see it going above 1.7 until Europe is looking healthier. So will prob sell a heap off again around there and watch it settle around 1.5 again. Well that's the plan.....


----------



## tech/a (14 July 2012)

Must admit you guys are the best value investors I have ever seen always at the lows for buying up more. Never taking a loss.
Truly far beyond my capability.


----------



## Boggo (14 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Must admit you guys are the best value investors I have ever seen always at the lows for buying up more. Never taking a loss.
> Truly far beyond my capability.



+1

Investor behaviour profile...


----------



## Boggo (14 July 2012)

The overall market and the price of gold may carry this up for a while from a potentially weak turning point.
There are still a few downside target areas on RED so a hit and run approach with tight stops could extract a few $$ for those with some basic ability.

A traders market, love it 

(click to expand)


----------



## notting (14 July 2012)

Hey Boggo, are you manually mapping these charts or do you have some software that does it automatically for you from data?


----------



## jancha (14 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Must admit you guys are the best value investors I have ever seen always at the lows for buying up more. Never taking a loss.
> Truly far beyond my capability.




Who you referring to? I'm up 30k trading in and out of RED.
Stick to your charting and forget the snipes as posts like that dont have any meaning other than stirring the pot. Maybe your stop loss should be adjusted and you might be in the black also. Sour grapes? 
Happy to show my trades Quack Quack


----------



## mrlister (14 July 2012)

I'm far from unhappy with my position in RED. To be pretty much square at this price leaves plenty of room for capital gain. I would be about 15k up if I didn't keep re-investing. But all I make I'm just throwing back in when price is low. Price is super low now. we all have our strategies. Some people just like to knock others more than others.


----------



## Boggo (14 July 2012)

notting said:


> Hey Boggo, are you manually mapping these charts or do you have some software that does it automatically for you from data?




See 'Practical use of Elliott Wave' thread.


----------



## tech/a (14 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Must admit you guys are the best value investors I have ever seen always at the lows for buying up more. Never taking a loss.
> Truly far beyond my capability.




Just astounding
In awe!
30k and 15k
WOW!
talk about FIGJAM!
Make Boggo look like
A rank amateur.


----------



## mrlister (14 July 2012)

Meh, 15k for the amount I'm investing is pretty good return. 

Hey boggo, how does it feel to be seen throughout this forum as someones far less intelligible sidekick?


----------



## jancha (15 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Just astounding
> In awe!
> 30k and 15k
> WOW!
> ...




You're a joke Quacker... No figjam here. Just making a point of your silly comment. 30k is chicken feed perhaps but at least i'm in the black with my RED trades unlike you by the sounds of it..Stick to your charts and keep your bill clean. Your like the one legged Duck......Just keeps going round in circles. Quack Quack


----------



## tech/a (15 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> Got some more on Friday at an average at a bit above 1.27. My holding has the same value now as when I first bought into RED, but now I have quite a few more. Be nice to start seeing some fruit soon for all the stress.
> 
> With the quarterly due soon, and the gold price picking up, I expect a little spike. But still can't see it going above 1.7 until Europe is looking
> healthier. So will prob sell a heap off again around there and watch it settle around 1.5 again. Well that's the plan.....




When you see this posted on Saturday 
It's FIGJAM.
Post it Friday with credibility.

Monday and the future will be interesting in terms of
Statements made in this thread with regard to how
Certain positions will pan out.

Happy to forward Joe $500 for bone fide proof of profit ($30k)
From your trading of RED.
If you can't then I expect you'll support ASF with the same. 
I don't believe you. Simply send everything to Joe for verification.

Quack Quack Quack.


----------



## jancha (15 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> When you see this posted on Saturday
> It's FIGJAM.
> Post it Friday with credibility.
> 
> ...




I'm not Mr lister and i didn't post that so try and keep your post separate. However I did state that on Fridays close and with the dow being up (200) gold up $20+ that IMO those who bought low on thursday or friday should make a profit of 5% come Monday. Is that OK Duck?
I've traded RED over 100 times since the 5th of Oct 2010 with a profit of 30k and i dont give a toss whether you believe me or not because as you said it's chicken feed but none the less it a profit and i'll continue to trade RED in the future because of it's fundamentals. 
I hope you can stick to the topic of RED now and move on to your charts.


----------



## tech/a (15 July 2012)

jancha said:


> I'm not Mr lister and i didn't post that so try and keep your post separate. However I did state that on Fridays close and with the dow being up (200) gold up $20+ that IMO those who bought low on thursday or friday should make a profit of 5% come Monday. Is that OK Duck?
> I've traded RED over 100 times since the 5th of Oct 2010 with a profit of 30k and i dont give a toss whether you believe me or not because as you said it's chicken feed but none the less it a profit and i'll continue to trade RED in the future because of it's fundamentals.
> I hope you can stick to the topic of RED now and move on to your charts.




You did however offer to show your trades.

Money and mouth come to mind.

Most of the rubbish posted on these Fundamental threads are puffery
Often made by people who guess at or are led by others.
These people have motives of their own and have no idea.

I've been following RED since October.
It's virtually done nothing.
Announcement after announcement--- there are all sorts of reasons offered for poor performance from 
Large holders selling out ( once sold all would be ok--- it wasn't ) 
Then there was production ( that failed as well )

At least FIGJAM and QUACK QUACK have given succinct analysis with definative
Results.

Now Money and Mouth.----


----------



## mrlister (15 July 2012)

jancha said:


> I'm not Mr lister and i didn't post that so try and keep your post separate. However I did state that on Fridays close and with the dow being up (200) gold up $20+ that IMO those who bought low on thursday or friday should make a profit of 5% come Monday. Is that OK Duck?
> I've traded RED over 100 times since the 5th of Oct 2010 with a profit of 30k and i dont give a toss whether you believe me or not because as you said it's chicken feed but none the less it a profit and i'll continue to trade RED in the future because of it's fundamentals.
> I hope you can stick to the topic of RED now and move on to your charts.




Sorry, what exactly did mrlister say? I said it wouldn't go higher than 1.70 in the short term till Europe sorts itself out a bit, but I didn't say it would be there Monday or anytime this week for that matter. 5% this week is realistic.


----------



## jancha (15 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> You did however offer to show your trades.
> 
> Money and mouth come to mind.
> 
> ...




Wow I'm not disputing where RED is atm but I still like it's fundamentals. To say it's done nothing? As trading in and out of it goes i'd have to disagree. I did the same thing with AUT until it took off keeping 30k of them (bought 100,000 @ 49c).  I think i mention somewhere before that if i'm comfortable with a company like AUT ADI RED ect As a general rule i hold 1/3 and trade with the highs and lows of the other 2/3rds and if it takes off and leaves me behind i dont chase it. Atm i'm holding 30,000 of RED a base cost of $1.36 and when it goes back up to $1.50 i'll sell 2/3rds again. I'm a bit reluctant to show my trade history but if you wish to donate the money to me i'll be happy to take it. Money and Mouth?.....Sounds like you got enough of it for both of us. Quack Quack.


----------



## notting (15 July 2012)

jancha said:


> IMO those who bought low on thursday or friday should make a profit of 5% come Monday. Is that OK Duck?




Which would require them to sell at 5% higher than Fridays close, so that's as high as this bounce will take it?  Will it then reverse to lower lows, then?


----------



## jancha (15 July 2012)

notting said:


> Which would require them to sell at 5% higher than Fridays close, so that's as high as this bounce will take it?  Will it then reverse to lower lows, then?




If bought in on the lows on Friday i'd be watching the markets trades on Monday to get a feel of where to take a profit on RED. Thats where chartsist have their usefulness sometimes.


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## mrlister (15 July 2012)

Heyyyyy. I just discovered the ignore posters function on here. So much nicer not to be seeing trouble making trolls 'quack quack' and their dopey mini me sidekick posts.


----------



## tech/a (16 July 2012)

Volume is really poor and very disappointing for those who
would like to see some positive movement in RED.
Not likely to move forward this week from current price action.

On the + side there is no supply at these levels indicating accumulation
rather than reactive selling at every up side opportunity.

For me a watch and wait.


----------



## notting (16 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Volume is really poor and very disappointing for those who
> would like to see some positive movement in RED.
> Not likely to move forward this week from current price action.
> 
> ...




Also under performing SLR and NST which can be as jumpy. 
I like to watch NCM for where sentiment lies in general as there are more internationals and hedge funds playing the bigger caps.  
Once NCM looks to be stabilizing after a strong up or down move the others can make aggressive moves a day or two after a new direction starts with NCM.  
More armatures playing the smaller caps taking a bit more time to 'get' the new short term move.
Doesn't always happen but when it does it's pretty reliable and you get the time to get them long and short!


----------



## Boggo (16 July 2012)

notting said:


> More armatures playing the smaller caps taking a bit more time to 'get' the new short term move.
> Doesn't always happen but when it does it's pretty reliable and you get the time to get them long and short!




Tend to agree.
The volume is low even when looking at it realistically (current V x 10 = ignore the 10:1 consolidation).
For a 13.5 cent stock there is a lack of interest on either side especially when you compare it to goldies like NGF (long on 13th at 24.3c avg - stop at 23) where there seems to be interest and volume and the chart is (erratically) leaning in the right direction.


----------



## jancha (16 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Tend to agree.
> The volume is low even when looking at it realistically (current V x 10 = ignore the 10:1 consolidation).
> For a 13.5 cent stock there is a lack of interest on either side especially when you compare it to goldies like NGF (long on 13th at 24.3c avg - stop at 23) where there seems to be interest and volume and the chart is (erratically) leaning in the right direction.




NGF has a takeover offer of .25c + .02c special dividend from Zijin mining with Directors reccommending share holders to take the offer. Could explain why their volume and the sp is up.


----------



## mrlister (17 July 2012)

Wish RED would get a takeover offer of .25 (2.50). I'd take it just to not be temped back to this dam thread


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## fastbuck1 (18 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> Wish RED would get a takeover offer of .25 (2.50). I'd take it just to not be temped back to this dam thread




you would think there would be a few eyes on red with the current market capp , my thinking tells me the market and any possible take over are waiting on the side lines to see wich way gold heads and to see how much gold has been produced for a full quarter.............


----------



## jancha (18 July 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> you would think there would be a few eyes on red with the current market capp , my thinking tells me the market and any possible take over are waiting on the side lines to see wich way gold heads and to see how much gold has been produced for a full quarter.............




Dont think RED would have any worries in the take over department......Not enough reserves atm to warrant that.


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## tech/a (19 July 2012)

jancha said:


> If bought in on the lows on Friday i'd be watching the markets trades on Monday to get a feel of where to take a profit on RED. Thats where chartsist have their usefulness sometimes.






tech/a said:


> Volume is really poor and very disappointing for those who
> would like to see some positive movement in RED.
> Not likely to move forward this week from current price action.
> 
> ...




Chartist eh!
Who'd believe it!


----------



## Buckfont (19 July 2012)

Time for the Coles song.

Down down the prices are down. All together now....


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## jancha (19 July 2012)

jancha said:


> If bought in on the lows on Friday i'd be watching the markets trades on Monday to get a feel of where to take a profit on RED. Thats where chartsist have their usefulness sometimes.




Yes thats what Chartists are useful for.
Company report out next week.


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## tech/a (19 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Yes thats what Chartists are useful for.
> Company report out next week.




How's that profit target coming along for you?


----------



## Boggo (19 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> How's that profit target coming along for you?




You will only get responses on up days tech/a


----------



## CanOz (19 July 2012)

We won't be tolerating any comments designed to aggravate so keep it productive or move on.

CanOz


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## jancha (19 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> How's that profit target coming along for you?




Well if you bought @ $1.25 on Friday & sold Monday @ $1.32 I'd say around 5%.
Personally if you read my previous posts you'd know that my base cost is $1.36 so i haven't sold and happy to hold until it recovers. 
RED if gold stays around the current price should only get stronger it's bank balance. One of the lowest Gold Producers around with no debt. Time will tell tho.
Tech stick with what you know and hopefully you'll make a profit with RED eventually and as for your faithful shadow Boogo following you around the forum he too should make a profit also when you decide to come on board.


----------



## tech/a (20 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Well if you bought @ $1.25 on Friday & sold Monday @ $1.32 I'd say around 5%.
> Personally if you read my previous posts you'd know that my base cost is $1.36 so i haven't sold and happy to hold until it recovers.
> RED if gold stays around the current price should only get stronger it's bank balance. One of the lowest Gold Producers around with no debt. Time will tell tho.
> Tech stick with what you know and hopefully you'll make a profit with RED eventually and as for your faithful shadow Boogo following you around the forum he too should make a profit also when you decide to come on board.




Sound advice.
Do you have a stop level or will you hold regardless.
If it dropped to say 60 c would you still hold on doggedly.
Buy more because it would be soooo undervalued.
Or would you duck for cover.


----------



## notting (20 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Well if you bought @ $1.25 on Friday & sold Monday @ $1.32 I'd say around 5%.




Retrospective fantasy.

Fact - bought at 1.28 and was out at 1.32 with a small trade.
When it comes to short term trading you can only rely on what was actually done. 
It's delusional and misleading to say could have.


----------



## jancha (20 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Sound advice.
> Do you have a stop level or will you hold regardless.
> If it dropped to say 60 c would you still hold on doggedly.
> Buy more because it would be soooo undervalued.
> Or would you duck for cover.




Good point. If the fundamentals were still in place i wouldn't sell in a hurry but if it got below $1 I'd bite bullet and sell. Lose what i've gained over the time trading in and out of RED.


----------



## jancha (20 July 2012)

notting said:


> Retrospective fantasy.
> 
> Fact - bought at 1.28 and was out at 1.32 with a small trade.
> When it comes to short term trading you can only rely on what was actually done.
> It's delusional and misleading to say could have.




Last Friday had gold spike so why is it misleading or delusional to say that anyone who bought on REDs low Thurs or Friday could take a profit on the following Monday? I posted that on the weekend not after Mondays close. Monday had a high of $1.33.


----------



## fastbuck1 (20 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Last Friday had gold spike so why is it misleading or delusional to say that anyone who bought on REDs low Thurs or Friday could take a profit on the following Monday? I posted that on the weekend not after Mondays close. Monday had a high of $1.33.




wonder what pikes take on red is now that beetles dissapeared.....


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## Boggo (20 July 2012)

Nothing that wasn't unexpected, just breakout below the min area today.
Next step on the current trend is 1.16 on the way down unless something amazing occurs that would create a convincing close above 1.295 (which might get me interested).

Main target remains at just above $1.00.

(click to expand)


----------



## jancha (20 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Nothing that wasn't unexpected, just breakout below the min area today.
> Next step on the current trend is 1.16 on the way down unless something amazing occurs that would create a convincing close above 1.295 (which might get me interested).
> 
> Main target remains at just above $1.00.
> ...




That from a chartist point of view but i think it's more to do with the POG thats going to dictate it's direction. Also a favourable report next week could have some upside temporarily providing gold hasn't dropped dramatically.

Boogo you mentioned NGF in one of your post... from a chartists point of view you said they were heading in the right direction. How far in the right direction is NGF looking on the charts as they have a takeover offer of 25c + .02c special dividend. With directors advising on taking the offer i dont see NGF sp at 24.5c going much further than what it is. What is your chart telling you if you say it's heading in the right direction. Just curious so if you could post it?


----------



## Boggo (21 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Boogo you mentioned NGF in one of your post... from a chartists point of view you said they were heading in the right direction. How far in the right direction is NGF looking on the charts as they have a takeover offer of 25c + .02c special dividend. With directors advising on taking the offer i dont see NGF sp at 24.5c going much further than what it is. What is your chart telling you if you say it's heading in the right direction. Just curious so if you could post it?




Not sure how far in the right direction it will go as there are potentially many external (potential = fundamental) influences but I am ignoring those and sticking with the internal (actual = technical) behaviour.
If it turns down I will get taken out at my current stop (now 24.5) which will be almost break even and will hopefully eliminate the possibility of me becoming an 'investor'.

Charts below.
Cheers Booogo.

(click to expand)


----------



## herzy (21 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> If it turns down I will get taken out at my current stop (now 24.5) which will be almost break even and will hopefully eliminate the possibility of me becoming an 'investor'.




Excuse my ignorance, but if there's a takeover at 25, plus a 2 c dividend, why put a stop in at 24.5?


----------



## Boggo (21 July 2012)

herzy said:


> Excuse my ignorance, but if there's a takeover at 25, plus a 2 c dividend, why put a stop in at 24.5?




Based on your positive looking figures it should'nt drop to 24.5, if it does why would I want to go into the red (RED - gettit  ) while I have a number of other candidates waiting their turn.

Have a look at my first chart in this post (in link below) and compare with the current daily chart and you will see how if you don't manage a failed trade you can become an investor seeking 'bargain at this price' levels on the way down way too easily.
(actually have a look at the posts that follow mine on that link too !) 

In the current market herzy its either going up or its cash, just my 

Link to post...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=299&page=33&p=700916&viewfull=1#post700916


----------



## skc (21 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Not sure how far in the right direction it will go as there are potentially many external (potential = fundamental) influences but I am ignoring those and sticking with the internal (actual = technical) behaviour.
> If it turns down I will get taken out at my current stop (now 24.5) which will be almost break even and will hopefully eliminate the possibility of me becoming an 'investor'.
> 
> Charts below.
> ...




Boggo, there are perhaps time to look a little bit at the fundamentals. NGF with a 27c takeover offer due to conclude around Nov is being priced exactly as it should. You will see price rises in line with the approach to the completion date. There are no further upside to that, considering the bidder owns a large part of the company already. 

Yet the down side if a deal falls through is probably 50% lower. If you are not in the game of merger arbitrage, I don't see why any directional traders would hold on this on a reward / risk basis.


----------



## Boggo (21 July 2012)

skc said:


> Boggo, there are perhaps time to look a little bit at the fundamentals. NGF with a 27c takeover offer due to conclude around Nov is being priced exactly as it should. You will see price rises in line with the approach to the completion date. There are no further upside to that, considering the bidder owns a large part of the company already.
> 
> Yet the down side if a deal falls through is probably 50% lower. If you are not in the game of merger arbitrage, I don't see why any directional traders would hold on this on a reward / risk basis.




I do agree that there is a lot in what you are saying skc and in the case of this stock it may be an example of just that.
Apart from knowing when a stock is within two months of paying a dividend I tend to just work on the price behaviour with a separate account set aside just for this type of speccy  hit and run approach that NGF has turned up in.

One current example of this approach without looking outside of just the price action at fundamentals etc is CSE where I am long again for the third time since 17th April with a finger on constantly on the trigger (ie tight stops), I haven't got a clue what is driving it but its profitable fun so far !


----------



## jancha (22 July 2012)

skc said:


> Boggo, there are perhaps time to look a little bit at the fundamentals. NGF with a 27c takeover offer due to conclude around Nov is being priced exactly as it should. You will see price rises in line with the approach to the completion date. There are no further upside to that, considering the bidder owns a large part of the company already.
> 
> Yet the down side if a deal falls through is probably 50% lower. If you are not in the game of merger arbitrage, I don't see why any directional traders would hold on this on a reward / risk basis.




Exactly why i asked to see the direction of Boggo's Chart analyst on NGF. Under the circumstances Tech analyst would'nt have any bearing as the fundamentals are cut and dry with the takeover at 25c + .02c dividend looking likely. It's not going to have a price target of say .30c when directors are saying take the deal. It's silly to say that NGF is heading in the right direction when it's quite obvious where it's going to go.
Unless there is another interested party bidding which i doubt as directors are advising to take the deal nothing will change..
I was surprised that boggo use NGF as an example to REDs volume & price situation. Cant see the point.


----------



## skc (22 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> I do agree that there is a lot in what you are saying skc and in the case of this stock it may be an example of just that.
> Apart from knowing when a stock is within two months of paying a dividend I tend to just work on the price behaviour with a separate account set aside just for this type of speccy  hit and run approach that NGF has turned up in.
> 
> One current example of this approach without looking outside of just the price action at fundamentals etc is CSE where I am long again for the third time since 17th April with a finger on constantly on the trigger (ie tight stops), I haven't got a clue what is driving it but its profitable fun so far !




While I don't agree with those who trade only on price to the complete neglect of fundamentals, such is their choice and many are successful in doing so. But now that you are aware of what's happening with NGF are you still holding and trading it like you originally planned? (Mostly rhetorical and there's no need to answer - I've derailed the RED thread enough).

The forces driving CSE is simple and it's basically a less liquid version of SYR (as CSE holds a % of SYR so their share prices are basically moving the exact same way). Yet another reason why a glancing look at CSE's fundamental could make sure you are not in SYR at the same time - because if you did you would have doubled your risk without knowingly so.


----------



## tech/a (23 July 2012)

Now I swear---Somewhere on this thread Beatle bet me a house that RED would not fall below 12c ($1.20)
Beatle when I catch you Ill be looking for my house.


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## Boggo (23 July 2012)

jancha said:


> I was surprised that boggo use NGF as an example to REDs volume & price situation. Cant see the point.




I suppose I could do what you kiddies do and average down on a falling stock, that should work 

Here is an example, two posts from last week on the IAU thread, it is currently trading at 24 cents as I type this.



> Inverted head and shoulders.  Neckline at 62.  *Bought at 59*.  Gold index up 2.2%.
> 59 breaks a longer term down slope trend line from 27/2 - 6/7.



 and


> *averaging down to 58.2.*




*Back to the topic that this thread is about, ie* *RED*.
So far today it got to within half a cent of its first target of 1.16, not seeing anything would get my interest in this stock yet and I definitely would not like to be holding it.



Boggo said:


> Nothing that wasn't unexpected, just breakout below the min area today.
> *Next step on the current trend is 1.16* on the way down unless something amazing occurs that would create a convincing close above 1.295 (which might get me interested).
> 
> Main target remains at just above $1.00.


----------



## jancha (23 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> I suppose I could do what you kiddies do and average down on a falling stock, that should work
> 
> Here is an example, two posts from last week on the IAU thread, it is currently trading at 24 cents as I type this.
> 
> ...




Yeah stick to the topic of RED Boogo. You were the one that brought up NGF which anyone could see to where they were heading given the circumstances of a take over.
Who's averaging down and for a stock that does'nt interest you why do you bother with the Posts?
Have you traded any RED shares or do just like to post on how good you are when your correct?


----------



## Boggo (23 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Yeah stick to the topic of RED Boogo. You were the one that brought up NGF which *anyone could see to where they were heading* given the circumstances of a take over.
> Who's averaging down and for a stock that does'nt interest you why do you bother with the Posts?
> Have you traded any RED shares or do just like to post on how good you are when your correct?




Anyone could see where RED was heading too  (well almost anyone)


----------



## tech/a (23 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Yeah stick to the topic of RED Boogo. You were the one that brought up NGF which anyone could see to where they were heading given the circumstances of a take over.
> Who's averaging down and for a stock that does'nt interest you why do you bother with the Posts?
> Have you traded any RED shares or do just like to post on how good you are when your correct?




RED
IN the RED
Holders with RED faces

There is a good reason why we ( BOGGO and I ) take interest in threads like this.
We supply a balance.
Some have saved a great deal by applying some balance.

By the way BOGGO posts *before* he's correct.

So currently your $30 k profit is less than $ 15k .
Not the smartest investing I have ever seen.

Seriously you should be learning and not knocking.


----------



## jancha (23 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Anyone could see where RED was heading too  (well almost anyone)





Honestly you should try and grow up a bit with your little snipes your like a little terrior yapping and nipping at the heal.
Yes RED was down like most other oil and gold stocks today. So what.
By the way why bring up IAU on the RED thead? Are you trying to put RED in the same boat as IAU?


----------



## jancha (23 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> RED
> IN the RED
> Holders with RED faces
> 
> ...




Beatles gone and noone's been ramping up RED. You and Boogo's constant little snipes aren't warranted and as far as keeping a balance goes...Maybe you can explain why your little mate has brought up IAU? If anything it seems you want the price to go down further.
Why bring up Beatle owing you a house or my profit? At least I have a profit on RED for now. You? 
If you want to be helpful and keep the so called balance just posts your charts and refrain from your little snipes.
Whose been knocking your charts?


----------



## CanOz (23 July 2012)

jancha said:


> If you want to be helpful and keep the so called balance just posts your charts and refrain from your little snipes.




Agree,i don't see any reason to inflame the other posters here Tech. You have made your point.

CanOz


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## Boggo (23 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Yeah stick to the topic of RED Boogo. You were the one that brought up NGF which anyone could see to where they were heading given the circumstances of a take over.
> Who's averaging down and for a stock that does'nt interest you why do you bother with the Posts?
> *Have you traded any RED shares* or do just like to post on how good you are when your correct?




Obviously I have been posting on the RED thread longer than you have, it may be worthwhile for you to look at what was posted on the subject before your arrival.



jancha said:


> Honestly you should try and grow up a bit with your little snipes your like a little terrior yapping and nipping at the heal.




I can understand that you are upset with your rapidly eroding 'profit', it is not my fault and I don't think comments such as that of yours is going to help you and is it really necessary ?
 I am posting up charts based on a method that is working effectively on quite a few stocks, not just RED, if you don't agree or dislike my charts then hit the ignore button.




jancha said:


> Yes RED was down like most other oil and gold stocks today. So what.
> *By the way why bring up IAU on the RED thead? Are you trying to put RED in the same boat as IAU?*




If you took the time to actually read what I am posting you would see that references to IAU etc are used as comparisons to situations that can be compared to RED, in this case the pitfalls of averaging down.

You have your opinion on RED based on whatever you choose and I have mine based on what I am prepared to put up here for all to see (before it happens).

This is about RED, not who is right or wrong, if you dont like the look of my charts/predictions etc because they don't agree with what you want to see then just put me on your ignore list.


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## tech/a (23 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Agree,i don't see any reason to inflame the other posters here Tech. You have made your point.
> 
> CanOz




Well there's an important lesson to learn here.
You'll note my last trade netted a 4c loss $ 500 in that trade.

A few pointed out that taking such a loss was not wise.
At the time if we believe the " J " man his holdings showed quite a profit.
But he has stood by and watched it ave.
Infact he has stated that he will hold it until ALL profit is lost.

That's NOT investing it's gambling.
He --- quite wrongly sees his profits as money supplied by others.
Much like a pokie player with a profit.

My important point to all newbies is hat profit IS your money learn when to take it off the table.


----------



## CanOz (23 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Well there's an important lesson to learn here.
> You'll note my last trade netted a 4c loss $ 500 in that trade.
> 
> A few pointed out that taking such a loss was not wise.
> ...




Totally agree. I'm sure many are learning an alternate view here as well. So in order to make sure its all kept non-defensive, lets just stick to the stock discussion so it doesn't degrade into a personal attack.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## jancha (23 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Totally agree. I'm sure many are learning an alternate view here as well. So in order to make sure its all kept non-defensive, lets just stick to the stock discussion so it doesn't degrade into a personal attack.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...




Cheers Canoz i agree wholeheartly.
I think there would be quite a number of charts similar to REDs with todays market so where to from here?
Tech I agree with you 100% as far as taking the money off the table goes as i normally do.
But with RED i like the fundamentals and will continue to hold till $1. Yes i will break even if i'm wrong and prepared to risk that.
Report should be out this week.


----------



## So_Cynical (23 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Cheers Canoz i agree wholeheartly.
> I think there would be quite a number of charts similar to REDs with todays market so where to from here?




The whole Gold/mining sector is getting hit, has been for months...i pity anyone who brought anything, anywhere near the top...remember that guy who posted about this time last year wanting to buy RIO at $80 a share 

What we pay for our shares as longer term holders is all so important...the trendy's ~  well a poor entry is just another 4 or 5% loser for them, one of the many so no Biggy, for us longer term fundamental type punters our first entry is the cornerstone on which to build.

All in all the POG is holding up well, has crossed under the long term trend but certainly hasn't broken down as i suspected it could...and that just has to be seen as a big positive.


----------



## jancha (24 July 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> The whole Gold/mining sector is getting hit, has been for months...i pity anyone who brought anything, anywhere near the top...remember that guy who posted about this time last year wanting to buy RIO at $80 a share
> 
> What we pay for our shares as longer term holders is all so important...the trendy's ~  well a poor entry is just another 4 or 5% loser for them, one of the many so no Biggy, for us longer term fundamental type punters our first entry is the cornerstone on which to build.
> 
> All in all the POG is holding up well, has crossed under the long term trend but certainly hasn't broken down as i suspected it could...and that just has to be seen as a big positive.




Yes talk of a hefty drop in the POG before a turn around to the old highs.
Qe3 was'nt indicated by Bernankie in his last speech in which gold dropped a bit. Still as you said it's so far holding up.
 I look at NCM to gauge RED and have noted that they're very similiar in that March 2nd of this year Newcrest had a high of $34.19 and is now $20.94. RED on the same day in March had a high of $2.36 and is now at $1.14.
Morningstar has 7 analyst with a strong buy on Newcrest. RED just the one. Morningstar has Newcrest growth and value rating at a 3 (average) RED on the other hand has a growth and value rating of 1 (highest).
The Charts aren't saying to me get out of RED as far as i'm concerned all the positive fundamentals are still there and it's just following the trend.
Tech As far as playing pokies goes i dont see the relevance. Pokie machines dont have fundamentals other than you lose overall as they are programed for a profit.
Even tho the market has'nt been kind to the gold stocks and stocks in gerneral I think RED will hold it's own eventually.
Comparing holding RED the same as playing the pokies is a silly comparison. That's like saying investing in a business with good fundamentals is the same as playing the pokies.

Tech. By the way not that it's any of your business i'm down 7k not 15k and still well in the black you on the other hand have done $500


----------



## mrlister (24 July 2012)

I'm down a little now, but not to the point where I dont beleive it will recover. I will hold still, but I must admit I am getting a little wobbly in the knees. Quarterly might raise it a little, and prob enough to make me square, but I do fear more short term pain here for RED.


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## jancha (24 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> I'm down a little now, but not to the point where I dont beleive it will recover. I will hold still, but I must admit I am getting a little wobbly in the knees. Quarterly might raise it a little, and prob enough to make me square, but I do fear more short term pain here for RED.




If there's more short term pain for RED Lister then it will be for most gold stocks.
Dont despair if your holding long term as nothing has changed with the fundamentals. Unless goverment policies change or management start throwing money away i dont see any problems especially if you believe in where golds heading.


----------



## tech/a (24 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Who you referring to? I'm up 30k trading in and out of RED.
> Stick to your charting and forget the snipes as posts like that dont have any meaning other than stirring the pot. Maybe your stop loss should be adjusted and you might be in the black also. Sour grapes?
> Happy to show my trades Quack Quack




If your going to spin stories as you do you should at least take the time to make it sound as if it is real.
On 14/7 you said the above. RED price $ 1.31 at close You state below that you'll be at B/E at $1
Thats 31c so yesterday it was $1.15 so you've just dropped 1/2 your $30K if your little story is correct.
Thats $16,000 --- but then again not so painfull as its all in the mind.



jancha said:


> Good point. If the fundamentals were still in place i wouldn't sell in a hurry but if it got below $1 I'd bite bullet and sell. Lose what i've gained over the time trading in and out of RED.




Then This.



> Tech. By the way not that it's any of your business i'm down 7k not 15k and still well in the black you on the other hand have done $500




What a crazy way of thinking.
You've dropped (7k to 16K ) and your **** a hoop that your up!---in your own mind.

This is not a personal attack but a commentary in reply to your own posts--I cant see why I cant point out such alarming in consistencies when you post information which is supposed to be factual.
If your going to have credibility with those looking at these posts you should be held accountable---just as Boggo and I have.

Today is likely to be another negative day for RED where it is likely you will suffer further losses with your holdings.* COMPLETELY AVOIDABLE.* 

*Let me point this out*
Had you sold and kept your imaginary $30K you would have had a further $30K to invest* WHEN* and *IF* RED shows signs of recovery.

*



			The Charts aren't saying to me get out of RED
		
Click to expand...


*
You must be looking at a completely different chart to everyone else.


----------



## jancha (24 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> If your going to spin stories as you do you should at least take the time to make it sound as if it is real.
> On 14/7 you said the above. RED price $ 1.31 at close You state below that you'll be at B/E at $1
> Thats 31c so yesterday it was $1.15 so you've just dropped 1/2 your $30K if your little story is correct.
> Thats $16,000 --- but then again not so painfull as its all in the mind.
> ...




Tech It is'nt imaginary i noone likes to be called a lair so listen up sonny i have 30,000 shares i'm down 7k on my last trade. $1 was basically the breaking point in saying that i'm willing to give up (most) my profits on RED I dont think today RED will drop much more if anything it will correct slightly or hold but hey your the expert right? Read my posts and you'll see that i still hold RED for the longer term if need be. Water of a ducks back


----------



## jancha (24 July 2012)

Tech by the way I did make a point of being up on RED due to your stupid comments about averaging down and buying more where as i've been buying in and out of RED for over 100 trades for a profit.
Call me a liar i dont care but stop bringing up my trades and i'll leave you to your $500 loss on RED and whatever other losses you have because at the end of the day who cares what you or i make.
Show where i have ramped up RED as you continually have your digs for the reasons of so called balancing. 
 Do you miss Beatle is that your problem?


----------



## skyQuake (24 July 2012)

skyQuake said:


> Last chance to selllll!




Now if only they had borrow back then


----------



## catfish (24 July 2012)

I find it hard to believe how low red has drifted. Guidance of 75k at total cost of 655 per ounce. 135.5 mil shares on issue gold price @ 1550.

 = EPS around 50c next year 

If all of these assumptions were to eventuate red is cheap cheap cheap, but even with variations on these inputs, no one could say red is expensive fundamentally. Right???

Do the calculations with variations in these basic 'goldminer' inputs for valuation and I'm sure anyone would be happy to hold on a fundamental basis. I am!!

Also I don't understand how anyone can say they will hold until the stock drop below a certain point. Excluding tech analysis. For me the company has not fundamentally changed and I believe that the current price represents a good entry. Sure there are risks, but I believe that this is certainly in the current price. 

I also like management and their 'vision' to pay dividends unlike alot of other miners who throw cash back in the ground as they say. 

Red will re-rate and I'm sure it will be priced substantially higher in a few years if not sooner.


----------



## tech/a (24 July 2012)

From what I've read here RED hasn't produced a market grade ingot to date.

Your certainly right that there are risks.
They are in Africa!

Another thing I can't understand is the fanatical belief in company spin.
Do you think they'll report anything negative.


----------



## catfish (24 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> From what I've read here RED hasn't produced a market grade ingot to date.
> 
> Your certainly right that there are risks.
> They are in Africa!
> ...




Sorry Africa????

And there have been negatives!!! 

I would not take a second look at this company if the price would have been higher.. Red is just another miner (price taker). The 'spin' is not suggesting red is the greatest company in the world!!! The fundamental 'spin' is focused a company which is about to become a producer that can be bought for less than it is worth. (my perception). 

'Spin' also allows users of forums to develop and document ideas with a chance someone can correct or add. I would feel like a crazy person writing ideas in a sketch pad for my own use.


----------



## Ves (24 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Your certainly right that there are risks.
> They are in Africa!



Isn't it WA?


----------



## tech/a (24 July 2012)

Sorry it's Philippines

Those karaoke gangs are un predictable!


----------



## burglar (24 July 2012)

Ves said:


> Isn't it WA?





Sorry Tech/a,

I found no evidence of projects in Africa!!



> The Company has a 25% free carried interest to feasibility in the Montague Joint Venture, located 80km NNE of Sandstone, Western Australia, in the Archaean Gum Creek Greenstone Belt. The project is managed by Gateway Mining NL (ASX code: GML).






> Mineral Production Sharing Agreement (MPSA) 280-2009-XIII over the Mapawa area, located 30 kilometres north of the company’s Siana Gold Project in the Philippines was awarded in May 2009.
> 
> Gold mineralisation has been intersected in historic drilling by former mine operator Suricon at the ‘LSY’ prospect, with indications of target mineralisation of approximately three to four million tonnes, commencing at surface.
> 
> An extensive porphyry style exploration target has been defined from electrical geophysical surveys surrounding the ‘LSY’ prospect.





> SIANA GOLD PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
> 
> The Siana development comprises an open pit operation followed by an underground mine, with ore treated through a conventional modern gravity and carbon-in-leach plant to produce gold dore.
> 
> ...


----------



## mardo (24 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> From what I've read here RED hasn't produced a market grade ingot to date.
> 
> Your certainly right that there are risks.
> They are in Africa!
> ...




Tech/a ,This is just the normal seasonal factor with Red  ie:

June/July 2010  Lows 1.15         Highs  Oct/Nov  2.25

June/July 2011  Lows 1.10          Highs  Dec       2.30

June/July 2012  Lows 1.09           Highs   ???? 

So all us long termers just have to wait a bit while you duck in and out like a rabbit.

Cheers.


----------



## tech/a (24 July 2012)

Good technical observation.

Nothing to indicate that it's going to respect support or 
Plunge straight through it.

Certainly worth watching.

What would your strategy be if your holding ?


----------



## mardo (24 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Good technical observation.
> 
> Nothing to indicate that it's going to respect support or
> Plunge straight through it.
> ...




As i said wait a bit....


----------



## Boggo (24 July 2012)

Didn't take it long to jump across from the min to the typical W.5 (chart below).

For anyone starting out, don't just read and forget the post (2851) above by catfish, print it out, frame it and place it in front of your computer and don't ever let yourself be influenced such an approach if you want to be around here as a profitable market participant rather than a spectator in 10 years from now.

Significant repeats of similiar comments that have abounded since RED was at 1.85.



catfish said:


> *I find it hard to believe* how low red has drifted.
> If all of *these assumptions* were to eventuate *red is cheap cheap cheap*, but even with variations on these inputs, no one could say red is expensive fundamentally. Right???
> ... and I'm sure *anyone would be happy to hold on a fundamental basis*. I am!!
> *I also like management* and their 'vision' ...






mardo said:


> So all us long termers just have to wait a bit while you duck in and out like a rabbit.
> Cheers.




The point that most seem to miss is that tech/a has freed up his funds and is either using them elsewhere successfully or otherwise they are comfortably parked waiting their next callout to one or more of the other 2000 stocks that also exist.

Its a business folks, would you send your employees on a fully paid holiday for 6 months because business has halved. Terminate them and re-employ them when the business turns around - same simple principle !

A picture of reality exists below. (click to expand)


----------



## So_Cynical (24 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Its a business folks, would you send your employees on a fully paid holiday for 6 months because business has halved. Terminate them and re-employ them when the business turns around - same simple principle !




Yep its a business, a very unique business, a business that in my case doesn't have any employees, costs about $70 > $130 a month to run, has no debt therefore no leverage and significant unencumbered cash backing.

Like all businesses my business makes money buy selling its goods at a price higher than i paid for them...these goods are mostly non perishable and have a (in most cases) long shelf life  now here's the kicker...unlike most businesses my goods sell in a dynamic open market where the price can vary greatly over time.

The only cost i incur in holding my goods is opportunity but because i have 24 different types of goods i find i have lots of other opportunities to profit from...ive noticed over the years that others run there businesses differently to me even though we often deal in exactly the same goods...go figure.


----------



## Boggo (25 July 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> Like all businesses my business makes money buy selling its goods at a price higher than i paid for them...




Why not sell them at the higher price the first time around, why hold on to them as they progressively lose 50% of their value and then have to regain 100% (ie double) just to get back to where it was the first time ?

What are you going to do if it starts to exibit the same behaviour when it (assuming it does) returns to its old high, repeat the same cycle ?


----------



## catfish (25 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> From what I've read here RED hasn't produced a market grade ingot to date.
> 
> Your certainly right that there are risks.
> They are in Africa!
> ...




Just to confirm bog and techa, tech analysis does not involve knowing anything about the business? I am not saying this in haste, I genuinely am interested. Hypothetically, would you trade a stock based purely on its chart without even know the operations of the business or even its name?


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2012)

catfish said:


> Just to confirm bog and techa, tech analysis does not involve knowing anything about the business? I am not saying this in haste, I genuinely am interested. Hypothetically, would you trade a stock based purely on its chart without even know the operations of the business or even its name?




Yes

Many I have traded I know *only the code*.
I have been on the end of a few take overs in my time.
Analysis gets me in as interest is clear.(Gaps-Volume-Large range bars-often out of consolidation).
As yet (20 Years) Ive not been whiped out with an outlier.

Infact post up a chart even without the code and if it has bars and volume going back a few years 
and in say min 2 time frames (Doesnt matter which 2 ).---Ill be able to analyse/trade it. 

T/A appealed to me as Im a visual guy and time pour.
In time  you can see what you need to see in under a minute.
Reports can be biased and very often wont reflect in the chart as it is "supposed to"

Very evident in RED with all its announcements and* evidently *so undervalued we should all be putting our houses on it!
So of us dont agree--purely because the market--dumb as they are---dont see it that way.


----------



## jancha (25 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Yes
> 
> Many I have traded I know *only the code*.
> I have been on the end of a few take overs in my time.
> ...




Reports can be biased........Very evident in RED with ALL it's announcements?
What a load of crock
I would have thought if anything it would be lack of announcements with RED and i dont see anything biased in them when they do come out.
Newcrest must have had similiar announcements as their charts are much the same.lol
Whats evident is that you believe in your charts (crystal ball) and know nothing about fundamentals otherwise you would have known that RED is operating in the Phillipines not Africa.
Most Gold stocks in general have and are trending down so whats REDs announcements got to do with anything? Nothing unless it's outstanding.
What does interests me is why you spend so much time on this tread? 
Only holders like myself and others have a genuine interest as we like the fundamentals. What do you like about them?
You believe in Tech analyst i believe in the fundamentals. If everyone traded the same where would the market go?
Anyway you say you post here to balance the so called ramping......well there's plenty of other threads you can visit and balance so why are'nt you doing the same. Repeat why the interest no malice intended.


----------



## Boggo (25 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Whats evident is that you believe in *your charts (crystal ball)* and know nothing about fundamentals otherwise you would have known that RED is operating in the Phillipines not Africa.




The good ol' crystal ball is working pretty darn well at the moment on this speccy wannabe. I have seen pages of the funnymental stuff about RED on here and not one bit of it has had any influence on the the stock price.

Makes you kinda wonder which is fact and which is fiction if you actually stop and think about it.


----------



## mrlister (25 July 2012)

The only thing I wonder about is why the trolls that frequent this site keep coming back. Can we please stick to the topic of RED and not your theories on best practice of trading


----------



## CanOz (25 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> The only thing I wonder about is why the trolls that frequent this site keep coming back. Can we please stick to the topic of RED and not your theories on best practice of trading




Providing an alternate analysis of this particular issue is the right of all forum members mrlister. So far the the alternate view is holding water, while the fundamentals are not attracting any big interest, certainly not big enough to change the trend.

As long as no one gets insulted then the debate is encouraged.

CanOz


----------



## jancha (25 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> The good ol' crystal ball is working pretty darn well at the moment on this speccy wannabe. I have seen pages of the funnymental stuff about RED on here and not one bit of it has had any influence on the the stock price.
> 
> Makes you kinda wonder which is fact and which is fiction if you actually stop and think about it.




Yes Boogo the Shadow stop and think.....Can you say the same about Newcrest? Their Charts are very similiar does that mean they have as you put it the same funnymental as RED?
Perhaps it's just the trend of the average gold stock.


----------



## jancha (25 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Providing an alternate analysis of this particular issue is the right of all forum members mrlister. So far the the alternate view is holding water, while the fundamentals are not attracting any big interest, certainly not big enough to change the trend.
> 
> As long as no one gets insulted then the debate is encouraged.
> 
> CanOz




True CanOz I find the thread very amusing that a certain method of trading is where you dont actually look at the fundamentals of a company and only know it by it's code.
I on the other hand as with ADI AUT EKA looked at it's fundamentals and potential growth as a business. Most my posts are usually on one the company that i'm interested at a time.

Gold stocks overall have been trending down so whats different about RED? Nothing as REDs fundamentals have'nt changed only following the market trend on GOLD stocks. Look at Newcrest....no difference.
Thats why i cant understand why Tech & Boogo continually bag it. What are their true motives i wonder.
Why dont they get on the Newcrest thread and do the same there??


----------



## mrlister (25 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Providing an alternate analysis of this particular issue is the right of all forum members mrlister. So far the the alternate view is holding water, while the fundamentals are not attracting any big interest, certainly not big enough to change the trend.
> 
> As long as no one gets insulted then the debate is encouraged.
> 
> CanOz




Wouldn't that belong in a fundy v techy thread? Why can't I come here to read about the company and not have to listen to trolls who don't trade RED and never intend to give their opinions that are often directed at people and their stance rather than the company itself?

Im all for hearing different views, but when people come here only when negative events are occurring it becomes pretty apparent that it really isn't about RED.


----------



## CanOz (25 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> Wouldn't that belong in a fundy v techy thread? Why can't I come here to read about the company and not have to listen to trolls who don't trade RED and never intend to give their opinions that are often directed at people and their stance rather than the company itself?
> 
> Im all for hearing different views, but when people come here only when negative events are occurring it becomes pretty apparent that it really isn't about RED.




Perhaps you can use the IGNORE feature. That way those that are interested in their view can still see it, while you don't have to read what they post...

Either way, both forms of analysis are welcomed. Personal insults are not.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Boggo (25 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Thats why i cant understand why Tech & Boogo continually bag it. What are their true motives i wonder.




Nobody is bagging it, statements/analysis that disagree with your opinion seem to be clouding your judgement.

Stick to the facts and remember this...


Joe Blow said:


> Disagreeing with someone's opinions and/or analysis is not attacking them. It's simply disagreeing, even if done in a tactless or thoughtless way.


----------



## jancha (25 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Nobody is bagging it, statements/analysis that disagree with your opinion seem to be clouding your judgement.
> 
> Stick to the facts and remember this...




You cant be serious? Not Bagging? Comments Regarding REDs announcements from Techs post Quote.. Reports can be quite bias....Very evident with RED with ALL it's announcements. 
Boogo i dont know what you think warrants bagging but perhaps you should go back to school to learn the meaning of the word lol


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2012)

Could someone point me to an announcement which was indicating some
negative impact on RED?

If you can find one Ill eat my tail feathers.
All I can find is all sorts of anticipatory positive spin.

But hey happy to be corrected.

6 mths worth here.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/


----------



## jancha (25 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> The good ol' crystal ball is working pretty darn well at the moment on this speccy wannabe. I have seen pages of the funnymental stuff about RED on here and not one bit of it has had any influence on the the stock price.
> 
> Makes you kinda wonder which is fact and which is fiction if you actually stop and think about it.




This Speccy wannabe.....kind of wonder which is fact and which is fiction? 
Do think that either one of you two bright sparks can explain why Newcrest and many other gold are exactly where this wannabe speccy as you put it is? Not bagging hey Boogo.
 REDs just following the trend as the fundamentals are still in place... the upside potential of growth.. low cost producing ect ect.
Tech all that i can read in REDs announcements are facts not fiction.


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Do think that either one of you two bright sparks can explain why Newcrest and many other gold are exactly where this wannabe speccy as you put it is? Not bagging hey Boogo.
> *REDs just following the trend*




Arrrhmmm So you agree with the techies? Where they disagree with you is they cannot see why anyone would be enthusiastic about a share that is trending down.

Pretty simple. They think someone is silly for holding something in a down trend, you think someone has no right to state that.

Where is the problem? Its a trading forum isn't it?


----------



## Joules MM1 (25 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Could someone point me to an announcement which was indicating some
> negative impact on RED?
> 
> If you can find one Ill eat my tail feathers.
> ...




This is from the Sunday Clueless Expressions edition (page 3):


> Team of erudite thinkers questioning the veracity of chat site comments  blurs outlook and makes stock figures turn RED




and this from the Hinch Herald (back page):


> More complaints from stock holders who feel harried by salient questions from inquisitive onlookers - they begin to see RED




and finally this, from just below the Girls and Mud Sports section of the 


> Pertinent questions make fearful-of-reality traders replay old Split Enz vinyls.....




hint: Erudite is not a glue, ok


----------



## notting (25 July 2012)

Got in again at 110. As something has put a rocket under NCM.
Will be whatching for Euro to fall through 120 US as that could begin a free fall which will hurt Gold.


----------



## mrlister (25 July 2012)

In general I like a techies perspective. But Europe crisis etc is not technical, it's fundamental. That IS what is driving the entire market down. If all of a sudden European woes were over, this would not be shown in any chart. Or if RED all of a sudden discovered a huge quantity of hold, tripling it's forecast....this will not show up in a chart. Techies are good for a large company such as leightons, who  win a new project worth 2.2 bill and it has little impact on price. Or NCM where small announcements won't effect share price too much. 

Yet last week one of our resident expert techies said RED wouldn't go below 1.40 as it found good support there. Go figure!!  

RED will eventually climb again, and when does we won't hear from the trolls again. Cos they just love to insult those whom are obviously hurting a bit from current market status.


----------



## mrlister (25 July 2012)

notting said:


> Got in again at 110. As something has put a rocket under NCM.
> Will be whatching for Euro to fall through 120 US as that could begin a free fall which will hurt Gold.




NCM was listed a couple of days ago in a popular media show as one of the hottest bargains out there ATM. That would be a big reason for its sudden popularity.


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> .......................
> .
> .
> If .....
> ...




I've left the only bit that matters. When that condition is true you'll find the techies interested. The rest of what you're saying is rubbish.


----------



## mrlister (25 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> I've left the only bit that matters. When that condition is true you'll find the techies interested. The rest of what you're saying is rubbish.




What you didn't add was that's it's your opinion that it's rubbish. Which really don't count for much


----------



## notting (25 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> NCM was listed a couple of days ago in a popular media show as one of the hottest bargains out there ATM. That would be a big reason for its sudden popularity.




My guess is that some commentators are saying QE3 is iminent and very soon!
There is a week or so for that to run so could support and lift till it dissapoints.


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> What you didn't add was that's it's your opinion that it's rubbish. Which really don't count for much




Mine *and *so far the price of RED....sure.

Carry on.


----------



## Joules MM1 (25 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> I've left the only bit that matters. When that condition is true you'll find the techies interested. The rest of what you're saying is rubbish.




+1

......


----------



## jancha (25 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Arrrhmmm So you agree with the techies? Where they disagree with you is they cannot see why anyone would be enthusiastic about a share that is trending down.
> 
> Pretty simple. They think someone is silly for holding something in a down trend, you think someone has no right to state that.
> 
> Where is the problem? Its a trading forum isn't it?




 Of coarse they have the right to state that about RED and as with the likes of Newcrest there'll be those that hold RED as a long term. I'm not in that boat. I've been in and out of RED on it's down trend but the main reason i do trade with RED is because of it's fundamentals. If i could read the cyrstal ball like Tech & Boogo i would have waited a bit longer before buying back in again. 
I've agreed with some of their comments except when they become personal attacks. Noone likes to be called a liar ect
And where has anyone said they didn't have the right to state holders of RED are silly in their opinion.
It's exactly that just their opinion.
I just dont see any ramping on this thread nor do i understand why Tech & Boogo visit the thread as they only posts charts and say i told you so we can balance the what? Fundamentals? The trend? Dont see any ramping here just a lot of i told you so or Beatle owes me a house or RED holders should by more which in fact i have now a base cost of $1.28 Unless Tech calls me a liar again then they are whatever he thinks they are you'll probably agree. 
Might help better if you read all the posts Trembling Hand.


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Might help better if you read all the posts Trembling Hand.




I have.


----------



## jancha (25 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> I have.




What! Wasn't there an... "if"... in my post?


----------



## notting (25 July 2012)

jancha said:


> nor do i understand why Tech & Boogo visit the thread as they only posts charts and say i told you so.



Well, they, especially Tech gave a possible bottom fishing buy entry with a parachute, after showing patience with the unfair value being given to it by the market for months.
Seems it could be becoming interesting.
Time to get a little excited, but use a parachute just in case it's a premature ejaculation.
Mines at 108


----------



## mrlister (25 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Mine *and *so far the price of RED....sure.
> 
> Carry on.





you seen the price of BHP lately? RIO? NCM? i guess they all must be speccies too?

and FACT is that prices dropped cos of the first round of greek elections. IF that didnt occur RED wouldnt be sitting at 1.135.

at the same time i will say, dec or jan this year when red was 1.50's and dropping, tech predicted it would drop until next support level  pretty much where it is now. within a few eeks it was near 2.00 cos of announcements. IF those announcement didnt come, maybe it would have dropped to his levels....who knows. but i do know it didnt, it climbed up to 2.39.

FACT is that those unknown IF's have a major say on the direction of a stock, and they are something that you can never find in your chart. unless like i said previously, the environment is much more stable, and these announcements dont have such a major impact. 

*The fundamentals are best for determining when to buy. the techies win out when determining when a good time to sell. *


----------



## prawn_86 (25 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> you seen the price of BHP lately? RIO? NCM? i guess they all must be speccies too?




Mrlister, if you want to discuss other stocks please do so in their individual threads. In fact we would love more posts to do with the larger/top 20 end of the market. Or why not provide a breakdown of the correlations between RED and these stocks?

Back on topic please folks. This thread is about RED and it's analysis be it FA, TA, positive, or negative. Please discuss the stock, not others posting styles and reasons


----------



## mrlister (25 July 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Mrlister, if you want to discuss other stocks please do so in their individual threads. In fact we would love more posts to do with the larger/top 20 end of the market. Or why not provide a breakdown of the correlations between RED and these stocks?
> 
> Back on topic please folks. This thread is about RED and it's analysis be it FA, TA, positive, or negative. Please discuss the stock, not others posting styles and reasons






how about a little consistency? have a run through the past 30 posts and you will find multiple other stocks discussed. heck go back 10 and NCM was!!

this place cracks me up.

PS reference to those stocks was to outline the status of the market as a whole. i dont care to discuss those stocks in particular.


----------



## prawn_86 (25 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> how about a little consistency? have a run through the past 30 posts and you will find multiple other stocks discussed. heck go back 10 and NCM was!!
> 
> this place cracks me up.




Hence why i have asked for this thread to get back on topic and discuss RED. Or if you are going to discuss other stocks in relation to RED, please make sure we know what the connection is (which has been done in a lot of the previous posts). EG NCM gold miner, RED aspiring gold miner. 

Or for those doing technicals, or pairs trading they could post correlations between RED and other top 20 stocks to see if it is a industry wide thing or if RED is different to the 'crowd'


----------



## mrlister (25 July 2012)

RED up 5.046% today


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2012)

> now a base cost of $1.28




So you still have your stop to sell everything at $1?

(Wow Ive been busy and this thread has taken off---lots of meaty stuff to comment on when Im not busy!).


----------



## jancha (25 July 2012)

notting said:


> My guess is that some commentators are saying QE3 is iminent and very soon!
> There is a week or so for that to run so could support and lift till it dissapoints.




Hmm I've heard the opposite that QE3 wont help the situation and wont happen. 
 Euro drops and the US$ rises Gold drops. Gold has been following the Euro trend. Scarey thought if the Euro collapses.
 I hope your right with QE3 tho then Gold goes back it's highs and RED also will gain good ground.imo
Where's that cyrstal ball again?


----------



## jancha (25 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> So you still have your stop to sell everything at $1?
> 
> (Wow Ive been busy and this thread has taken off---lots of meaty stuff to comment on when Im not busy!).




Depends on the circumstances.


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> you seen the price of BHP lately? RIO? NCM? i guess they all must be speccies too?



 I never said RED was anything other than in a down trend. 



mrlister said:


> and FACT is that prices dropped cos of the first round of greek elections. IF that didnt occur RED wouldnt be sitting at 1.135.
> 
> *The fundamentals are best for determining when to buy. the techies win out when determining when a good time to sell. *



Geez!!

I don't think you have a clue what T/A is about. Its about working with the *IFs * what ever they may be not excusing them. In relation to RED some peoples fundamentals have them in RED and its going down! T/A has people out *not *losing money, either capital or open profit. Nothing more needs to be said about it really.

But hope for you todays has been the ignition of the rocket lots are waiting for.


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Depends on the circumstances.




Which as an example would be??--where you wouldnt take your B/E loss?
Youd move the goal posts. Bottom draw it.


----------



## CanOz (25 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Which as an example would be??--where you wouldnt take your B/E loss?
> Youd move the goal posts. Bottom draw it.




You are digressing to a critique of their trading style again.

Analyze the issue in this thread, not the 'investors' please.

CanOz


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> You are digressing to a critique of their trading style again.
> 
> Analyze the issue in this thread, not the 'investors' please.
> 
> CanOz




Iam?

Legitimate question raised by his answer.
I gave two examples and looking for his.
The issue is clearly what are the circumstances that
Would change the traders stated position-- I'm interested?


----------



## jancha (25 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Which as an example would be??--where you wouldnt take your B/E loss?
> Youd move the goal posts. Bottom draw it.




 The same way you read your charts i look at the fundamentals atm nothings changed other than a trending down in Gold.
Tell me would you sell your business because someone told you it looked worthless on a chart and yet you know it's making a profit.
 Now if RED isn't making money then there's a problem. Time will tell with the events and if i see something i dont like then i'm out.
 The same way you look at your charts and make a decision as you did with RED @ $1.36? with a stop loss @ $1.31?
Anyway Tech your happy in the way you trade so stick to it and as far as my method goes i'm happy with it even if it has it flaws and a bit risky.  So Keep your feathers dry and dont let the salt air get under your wings


----------



## jancha (25 July 2012)

notting said:


> Well, they, especially Tech gave a possible bottom fishing buy entry with a parachute, after showing patience with the unfair value being given to it by the market for months.
> Seems it could be becoming interesting.
> Time to get a little excited, but use a parachute just in case it's a premature ejaculation.
> Mines at 108




Patience has it's virtues. I hope you dont need that parachute and if RED brings out a report this week i hope thats within their expectations of production otherwise like any goldie with below average targets they'll not only drop but drop hard. And I will have to endure the two Techs i told you so. Nadda nadda quack quack.
On the other hand tho if it's more than favourable report maybe that black duck can fly south for winter


----------



## Ves (25 July 2012)

Jancha, do you have any thoughts that you can share on RED 5's cost of production both now and going forward?  What about the mine life?


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## tech/a (25 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Patience has it's virtues. I hope you dont need that parachute and if RED brings out a report this week i hope thats within their expectations of production otherwise like any goldie with below average targets they'll not only drop but drop hard. And I will have to endure the two Techs i told you so. Nadda nadda quack quack.
> On the other hand tho if it's more than favourable report maybe that black duck can fly south for winter




Announcements generally become factored into price before they are released.
Price of gold determines RED price more than anything else.
Personally I expect to see some consolidation in the next few weeks.


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## jancha (25 July 2012)

Ves said:


> Jancha, do you have any thoughts that you can share on RED 5's cost of production both now and going forward?  What about the mine life?




RED has no debt... resources as of Sept 2011 of 1,357,000 ozs of gold and 2,417,000 of silver with a mine life of a minimum of 10 years. Total cash operating cost of $330.
 Easiest way to view RED5 stats is go to their site on the net.


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## Ves (25 July 2012)

jancha said:


> RED has no debt... resources as of Sept 2011 of 1,357,000 ozs of gold and 2,417,000 of silver with a mine life of a minimum of 10 years. Total cash operating cost of $330.
> Easiest way to view RED5 stats is go to their site on the net.



Yes, that's all fairly easily attainable, but do you think there is any chance it will go cost them more to produce?  What happens if a quality mine cannot be sourced in the next decade? Does this change your valuation at all?


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## mrlister (25 July 2012)

not a hope i would still hold in a decade. for me its until they get stuck into a good 6 months of full production. target price of about 2.5. this will pretty much double my money, so the sooner the better. 

would be a great opportunity to release quarterly for them tomorrow. gold up, Europe up....signs pointing towards US going up.


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## Joe Blow (25 July 2012)

mrlister said:


> The only thing I wonder about is why the trolls that frequent this site keep coming back. Can we please stick to the topic of RED and not your theories on best practice of trading




Those who offer analysis that differs from your opinion are not trolls. They are simply offering an alternate view and all views are welcome as long as they are explained by those posting them. If there had been nobody to question those who were pumping this stock at twice its current price, more may have been sucked into this one at much higher prices. Thankfully there are those who are prepared to question the self interested who are only interested in one thing... selling at a profit.



mrlister said:


> target price of about 2.5.




Can you please outline for those reading this thread your analysis that justifies a price target of $2.50.


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## Joe Blow (25 July 2012)

One other thing. Personal attacks and name calling are uncalled for and the mods and I will issuing infractions to those who persist with them.

If you disagree with someone's analysis then attack the analysis, not them. 

Keep it civil at all times please.


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## mardo (26 July 2012)

Teck/a ,Where do you see the price action going today for Red.
We have come off a four day drop from $1.30 to $1.09 before yesterdays slight turnaround on small volume again.
However Qtly may be due out next 3 days with production guidence of 7800 ounces gold & 41000 ounces silver
 for the 2 months since commercial production was declared ie;1/5/12.Cash costs are sub US$600.
If you believe their (Tea leave readings)2012/13 guidence 75000 ounces at sub US $340 .


----------



## jancha (26 July 2012)

Ves said:


> Yes, that's all fairly easily attainable, but do you think there is any chance it will go cost them more to produce?  What happens if a quality mine cannot be sourced in the next decade? Does this change your valuation at all?




Ves. I cant forecast REDs future costs and mines down the track. I do however think there's good growth potential with RED and at the moment are ironing out any problems concerning the production mine at Siana.
In my opinion once thats done and running smoothly RED can move on to Mawapa.


----------



## Buckfont (26 July 2012)

Here is a 4.1/2 minute vid on RED from Evans and Partners senior research analyst, Cathy Moises. She explains some of the problems RED have been facing.

http://www.evansandpartners.com.au/videoupdates/viewstory/Episode+457+-+Cathy+Moises


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## jancha (26 July 2012)

Buckfont said:


> Here is a 4.1/2 minute vid on RED from Evans and Partners senior research analyst, Cathy Moises. She explains some of the problems RED have been facing.
> 
> http://www.evansandpartners.com.au/videoupdates/viewstory/Episode+457+-+Cathy+Moises




Thanks for that Buckfont..very interesting and explains why RED is where it is a present. I did receive an e-mail trom Colin Jackson in regard to the issues with the silt and it's challenges.
 All in all tho a positive report on RED as the silt eventually wont be a problem.


----------



## tech/a (26 July 2012)

mardo said:


> Teck/a ,Where do you see the price action going today for Red.
> We have come off a four day drop from $1.30 to $1.09 before yesterdays slight turnaround on small volume again.
> However Qtly may be due out next 3 days with production guidence of 7800 ounces gold & 41000 ounces silver
> for the 2 months since commercial production was declared ie;1/5/12.Cash costs are sub US$600.
> If you believe their (Tea leave readings)2012/13 guidence 75000 ounces at sub US $340 .




Current support level will hold.
But volume on any up move is poor indicating less than satisfactory demand.
What Im looking for is levels that supply re appears and at that point how
demand copes with that.
Today will as expected be up as gold was up.
But going forward I see some consolidation between support (Now in) and resistance (To be determined).
I dont expect RED to fly un abated to new highs.


----------



## jancha (26 July 2012)

I for one dont expect RED to fly to unabated new high either in the short term (unless Gold skyrockets) but over time we'll see whether the fundamentals kick in with their production output and getting into the dryer ore.
Report should be out soon and doesn't look like it will be favourable but as Tech has stated the market would have already factored that in....... good news is it's only a temporary a problem that has slowed production and this is to be expected as with any new Business/Production line.


----------



## Boggo (26 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> But going forward I see some consolidation between support (Now in) and resistance (To be determined).
> I dont expect RED to fly un abated to new highs.




An 11 to 12 cent range to overcome between ~1.25 and ~1.37 before any real change of trend.
It really needs to overcome the 1.25 initial resistance and have 1.37 area become support after a break above there before any reversal of trend is in place.

(click to expand)


----------



## mardo (26 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Current support level will hold.
> But volume on any up move is poor indicating less than satisfactory demand.
> What Im looking for is levels that supply re appears and at that point how
> demand copes with that.
> ...




Nicely summed up Tech/a.
Now we will see what tomorrow  brings as volume was a bit better today.


----------



## mrlister (26 July 2012)

Volume is not really that bad. Is a little below average 340k (ave 380). But certainly not a low volume day.


----------



## notting (26 July 2012)

NCM and the others I like to whatch *popped on the news* then all faded rather dissapointingly, NST and RED out performed.
It's in the hands of Gold now.
When I make 10% in a day I generally take it. Unless there is some mitigating circumstance which has not really manifested yet given the above.


----------



## jancha (26 July 2012)

notting said:


> NCM and the others I like to whatch *popped on the news* then all faded rather dissapointingly, NST and RED out performed.
> It's in the hands of Gold now.
> When I make 10% in a day I generally take it. Unless there is some mitigating circumstance which has not really manifested yet given the above.




So are you saying you did'nt take it? You bought at $1.10 it had a high of $1.225. Reached your 10%. 
I sold the 10,000 i bought the other day @ $1.085 for $1.21 today.
Still holding a few tho.... long term if necessary.


----------



## notting (26 July 2012)

No I did at 1.205.
Will trade the range if it consolidates for a while.
Will buy if it breaks up on easing and so forth, probably would not get a chance if the report makes it pop, but that's an each way bet, so why leave it when there's 10% in the hand?


----------



## jancha (26 July 2012)

notting said:


> No I did at 1.205.
> Will trade the range if it consolidates for a while.
> Will buy if it breaks up on easing and so forth, probably would not get a chance if the report makes it pop, but that's an each way bet, so why leave it when there's 10% in the hand?




Think it's more about where gold goes over night not so much on REDs report. If RED drops back down to $1.10  i'll probably buy back the 10,000 i sold today. Hoping it will continue in it's current direction tho as my base cost is back out to $1.36.


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## mrlister (26 July 2012)

I missed the 1.08 boat as I bought on friday at 1.24....dammitt. Brought my overall price down to 1.324 though which I still see as very low. Would love to stop consolidating and start earning though!!


----------



## jancha (30 July 2012)

RED looking fairly good atm. Buyers starting to line up out weighing  the sellers.
Go you good thing!


----------



## notting (30 July 2012)

Don't like it.
People doubting central bank move now and golds looking to top out.
I tripled mine, into NCM as it was down against when I sold RED sold it  this moring it out performed just, but is underperforming today and looking a little week so far.


----------



## jancha (30 July 2012)

notting said:


> Don't like it.
> People doubting central bank move now and golds looking to top out.
> I tripled mine, into NCM as it was down against when I sold RED sold it  this moring it out performed just, but is underperforming today and looking a little week so far.




 Yes. Analyst predicting no QE3 come 1st of August.


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## jancha (30 July 2012)

jancha said:


> RED looking fairly good atm. Buyers starting to line up out weighing  the sellers.
> Go you good thing!




Market fickled. RED looking good early on in trading..up 4% now down 4% Which way will the QE3 go come Wednesday? Some are predicting it others are suggesting it will be dragged out as a last resort and may not come about at all. 
Who knows but one way or another RED and other gold miners will be effected on this.
In the long run it's only temporary imo. Advantage however with RED over other Gold miners if it does drop and stays there for awhile their lower production costs will give them the advantage. (They will be still making a profit if the POG slips).


----------



## Boggo (30 July 2012)

notting said:


> Don't like it.
> People doubting central bank move now and golds looking to top out.
> I tripled mine, into NCM as it was down against when I sold RED sold it  this moring it out performed just, but is underperforming today and looking a little week so far.




Follow up from here - 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=8971&page=146&p=720491&viewfull=1#post720491

Too fast to soon and went head first into 50% resistance at 1.31.
Could be seeing a wave 5 of 5 here with a target of around 1.02 to 1.05, tomorrow should prove or disprove.

(click to expand)


----------



## mardo (30 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Follow up from here -
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=8971&page=146&p=720491&viewfull=1#post720491
> 
> Too fast to soon and went head first into 50% resistance at 1.31.
> ...




Quarterly due out tomorrow!!!Price weakness may be due to them not making guidence of 7800 ounces which would be normal, looking at past targets and completion dates of milestones.
I guess it may be an interesting day...


----------



## jancha (30 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> Follow up from here -
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=8971&page=146&p=720491&viewfull=1#post720491
> 
> Too fast to soon and went head first into 50% resistance at 1.31.
> ...




Lets flip a coin.


----------



## tech/a (30 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Lets flip a coin.




That's a strong reversal.
I'll call heads.


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## Boggo (30 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Lets flip a coin.




Heads I win, tails you lose


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## jancha (31 July 2012)

So much for markets factoring in announcements before they come out.
RED down 5% yet most of all Gold stocks up today. Dont think if will get down to where the two tech brothers are saying tho.


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## tech/a (31 July 2012)

jancha said:


> So much for markets factoring in announcements before they come out.
> RED down 5% yet most of all Gold stocks up today. Dont think if will get down to where the two tech brothers are saying tho.




Go figure----So whats that tell you?
Market doesnt like the announcement.
The decreasing price over the last week indicates that the announcement was factored.
*The uninitiated bought into supply.*

So where pray tell do you see a buy for RED?
Surely now as its so so cheap??


----------



## jancha (31 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Go figure----So whats that tell you?
> Market doesnt like the announcement.
> The decreasing price over the last week indicates that the announcement was factored.
> *The uninitiated bought into supply.*
> ...




Tech you should know when to buy into RED. Your the expert lol. Why dont you try and buy back in now it seems to be recovering. Put a stop loss @ $1.10
Tails you lose.


----------



## jancha (31 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Go figure----So whats that tell you?
> Market doesnt like the announcement.
> The decreasing price over the last week indicates that the announcement was factored.
> *The uninitiated bought into supply.*
> ...




What it tells me is markets fickled like i said before and guess what the market likes the announcement.
RED up 2.5% Hope you got on Tech i did.
Just a question for the fundies is it unusual whilst holding a company like RED in a down trend to buy in on the dips and sell out on the highs with the idea of RED eventually trending up?


----------



## Boggo (31 July 2012)

At the rate that they are burning money I would say that a capital raising exercise is not far off.
New shares at around $1.00 each should be fun to watch


----------



## jancha (31 July 2012)

Some support on close. Buyers out weighting sellers with volume slightly higher than average.
Looks like tomorrow could be a positive day for RED but i feel it's more about where the POG is. 
Boogo and Tech it was a close prediction but no cigar today.. RED held up quite well as to be expected when the fundamentals of stock look good regardless of a minor set back


----------



## Boggo (31 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Boggo Tech i see why charting has it's advantages as fundamentals here dont add up.




You were right last January jancha :horse:


----------



## jancha (31 July 2012)

jancha said:


> Very interesting Tech. Not a bad way of trading. I personally prefer to look at both the volume & charts as well as fundamentals of a company but by doing so are limited to only trading with stocks that i'm familiar with. And as i'm not as confident as you with your methods of tech analyst i tend buy in and out of RED with half my holdings retaining the rest till it reaches my expectation.



Yeah and this from last January
As time goes on we all develope a certain way of trading ...  Boogo with his crystal ball and excuses when it doesn't hit expected targets eg. Plan A if not plan B if not plan C and so on so your never wrong. Like a politician always with a back up plan. What are your tea leaves telling you with RED tomorrow more to the point.


----------



## Boggo (31 July 2012)

jancha said:


> What are your *tea leaves* telling you with RED tomorrow more to the point.




I'll just crack open this tea bag, in the meantime


----------



## jancha (31 July 2012)

Boggo said:


> I'll just crack open this tea bag, in the meantime




Hmmm you sure your not on something else? I did notice crack in the sentence.


----------



## tech/a (1 August 2012)

tech/a said:


> Go figure----So whats that tell you?
> Market doesnt like the announcement.
> The decreasing price over the last week indicates that the announcement was factored.
> *The uninitiated bought into supply.*
> ...




How about Now?


----------



## herzy (1 August 2012)

tech/a said:


> How about Now?




You planning on buying now Tech? Can I have some more details?


----------



## jancha (1 August 2012)

herzy said:


> You planning on buying now Tech? Can I have some more details?




I dont think Tech would give that information away after his last venture Herzy. It could almost be a case of duck turning into a chicken.


----------



## jancha (1 August 2012)

Herzy  
My personal opinion of RED from a Chartist point of view would be to sit on the fence and wait for a reversal in trend but from a fundamental point of view ask yourself where the POG is going.
Tomorrow imo RED will fall as will the price gold overnight. ( temporary imo) Sold the 10000 i bought the other day @ $1.21 for a profit and looking to buy back in tomorrow.
Will continue to play with RED in this manner while still holding a number of their shares for when there's a reversal.


----------



## jancha (9 August 2012)

Low volume but certainly RED is making positive ground. Buyers out weighing sellers sp $1.29.
Could be the beginning in a reversal of trend ?


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2012)

Havent had a really good look but it looks ok.


----------



## notting (9 August 2012)

Considering the strong performance of the Euro against the US over the last week or two, you'd think gold would have been showing a bit more strength.  The Gold stocks have, but not so much gold itself.  Either the stocks will go back down or Gold will strengthen.
I'm betting weaker gold as Euro fades against the US, with some shorts on Gold stocks. Not RED,  with fingers hoveing over mouse to stop  loss.
Still don't think there is justification for more printing just yet and that could be making this rally turn.
The only thing that should strenthen Euro against the US is printing.  Fiscal cliff is bullsh$t.


----------



## jancha (10 August 2012)

tech/a said:


> Havent had a really good look but it looks ok.




Thanks tech it comforts me to know that.
I've been taking on board your tech analyst. I dont know if i'm reading the the charts correctly but i liked the look of BPT SWM & TGA. I find that the likes of RED with it's volume a worry in that it's harder to trade in and out of whereas BPT seems a bit easier to predict.
 Getting of RED a bit here but when looking at a company on their fundamentals (why i hold and trade RED) would'nt it be better to trade a stock that has a higher volume of interest regularly like BPT when trading short term?
I just managed to buy SWM yesterday @ $1.57 on close by looking at it's chart and watching it's buy and sells prior to jumping on board.
Definitely an interesting way of trading but I could'nt trade like that on it's own without knowing the fundamentals.


----------



## jancha (10 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> An 11 to 12 cent range to overcome between ~1.25 and ~1.37 before any real change of trend.
> It really needs to overcome the 1.25 initial resistance and have 1.37 area become support after a break above there before any reversal of trend is in place.
> 
> (click to expand)




$1.37 here we come. Looks like that $1 cap raising you posted does'nt look likely Boogo.lol


----------



## Boggo (15 August 2012)

A follow up to my post here -
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=8971&page=146&p=720491&viewfull=1#post720491



Boggo said:


> An 11 to 12 cent range to overcome between ~1.25 and ~1.37 before any real change of trend.
> It really needs to overcome the 1.25 initial resistance and have 1.37 area become support after a break above there before any reversal of trend is in place.




It still hasn't had a close above 1.37 and needs to decide whether it is heading up or down at the moment.
A downside pattern seems to be forming, volume is dismal.

(click to expand)


----------



## notting (15 August 2012)

Definitly would be taking that off the table.  NCM turning today and smallers soon to follow as Euro weakens againgst the US.


----------



## jancha (16 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> A follow up to my post here -
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=8971&page=146&p=720491&viewfull=1#post720491
> 
> 
> ...




Looking that way. Sold out the other day @ $1.33.


----------



## Boggo (20 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> An 11 to 12 cent range to overcome between ~1.25 and ~1.37 before any real change of trend.
> It really needs to overcome the 1.25 initial resistance *and have 1.37 area become support after a break above there before any reversal of trend is in place.
> *




A test of the 1.37 at the close today, not looking too strong imo.

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo (22 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> A test of the 1.37 at the close today, not looking too strong imo.




RED seems to be doing well today, seems to be some interest on the bid side.


----------



## jancha (22 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> At the rate that they are burning money I would say that a capital raising exercise is not far off.
> New shares at around $1.00 each should be fun to watch




Still think that Cap raising exercise at shares around $1 still on the cards Boogo?


----------



## CanOz (22 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> RED seems to be doing well today, seems to be some interest on the bid side.




Gold broke out last night yeah?


----------



## Boggo (22 August 2012)

jancha said:


> Still think that Cap raising exercise at shares around $1 still on the cards Boogo?




I wouldn't discard the idea just yet.

Just for now though we are all waiting for you to tell us how you bought and sold again *after* it turns down


----------



## jancha (22 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> I wouldn't discard the idea just yet.
> 
> Just for now though we are all waiting for you to tell us how you bought and sold again *after* it turns down




Yes good of you take note. Big mistake as i sold @ $1.33 and bought back in at $1.45. Not a smart way to trade.
 You see i thought i'd try and be smart like you and read the charts. Sell and buy back at a lower price. Costly. So in future i'll stick to my own judgement instead of listening to interptations of tea cup readers like yourself and Aussie bull who had RED at a confirmed sell.
So getting back to a cap raising of $1 Boogo when do you predict this happening... 6mths a year?


----------



## jancha (23 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> At the rate that they are burning money I would say that a capital raising exercise is not far off.
> New shares at around $1.00 each should be fun to watch




Boogo.. I ask again when do you predict this ( fun to watch) $1 cap raising of RED shares. 
Very interested in your expertise? lol
Interesting how the 2 tech twins disappear when RED starts looking positive on the charts.


----------



## Boggo (23 August 2012)

jancha said:


> Boogo.. I ask again when do you predict this ( fun to watch) $1 cap raising of RED shares.
> Very interested in your expertise? lol



I'll attempt to ease you into this slowly. Grab a calculator and work out from the pic below how many quarters they may have left at the current cash burn rate, thats approximately when something has to happen, then again they could always start producing something lol, its fundamental to their survival i'd say 

Always bear in mind that 'When your out go exceeds your income your upkeep will be your downfall' 



jancha said:


> Interesting how the 2 tech twins disappear when RED starts looking positive on the charts.



Sorry we have neglected RED, i'm sure there will be an opportunity to comment further, just a bit too busy with NST and DLS at the moment 

piccy time jancha


----------



## jancha (24 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> I'll attempt to ease you into this slowly. Grab a calculator and work out from the pic below how many quarters they may have left at the current cash burn rate, thats approximately when something has to happen, then again they could always start producing something lol, its fundamental to their survival i'd say
> 
> Always bear in mind that 'When your out go exceeds your income your upkeep will be your downfall'
> 
> ...




Unlike you Boogo I'm from old school and dont need a calculator to work that out.
But Hello.....If (thats a big IF) RED don't start producing anything of substance they have a debt facility of $9 mil in place IF needed.   You failed to put that into the equation... so no Cap Raising for now. 
In the meantime REDs management problem with the silt should be sorted out and the better ore should be going thru with better results.
Boogo Helpful hint... when you posts on the fundamentals try to read all the data not just a snippet.
 I can see now why you rely on charts.  Speaking of which RED seems to have moved along the same as NST &  DLS...Up around 20c from the 14th. Good of you to use them as an excuse and throw them in the posts as well. figjam 
So getting back to the $1 Cap raising how soon?


----------



## mr. jeff (24 August 2012)

jancha said:


> In the meantime REDs management problem with the silt should be sorted out and the better ore should be going thru with better results.




I am watching this move with interest and not here to argue, but by now we all know that management is really really really really not great with communication, especially when it is bad news behind the scenes. So until I hear that the silt issue has been put to bed completely, I remain concerned. 

They are still not making money either. Has anyone counted the costs of revised development to date and forecast and then recalc'd the production costs per Oz - are they still in line with guidance ? I don't know and am curious...


----------



## tech/a (24 August 2012)

Started posting here October last year.
Price was 15 c.
10 X Consolidation and 10 mths on and price is still the same.

In the meantime much has been written on the fundamantal undervaluation
of RED.

Market just doesnt agree.


----------



## jancha (24 August 2012)

tech/a said:


> Started posting here October last year.
> Price was 15 c.
> 10 X Consolidation and 10 mths on and price is still the same.
> 
> ...




Market is following in line with rest of gold producers.


----------



## tech/a (24 August 2012)

mrlister said:


> I'm still not convinced RED is being driven by gold price too much. But more on the deliverance of promise. cos until they actually ramp up production, it's all Fluff.






tech/a said:


> Now I don't know but I'm pretty sure a plunging gold price isn't going to bode well for RED.
> 
> Where's a good bit of spin when you need it!




Been saying that for ever!


----------



## jancha (24 August 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> I am watching this move with interest and not here to argue, but by now we all know that management is really really really really not great with communication, especially when it is bad news behind the scenes. So until I hear that the silt issue has been put to bed completely, I remain concerned.
> 
> They are still not making money either. Has anyone counted the costs of revised development to date and forecast and then recalc'd the production costs per Oz - are they still in line with guidance ? I don't know and am curious...




Cant argue about lack of communication but if you go back to post 2914 on RED... evans and partners have had their analyst on site. There is an issue with the 20yr build up of silt which has been slowing down the process of production however once RED has got on top of that the better quality ore should be mined with better output. I dont know about increase in production costs but if there is one going on their last report they have long to go to be up with most of the other gold producers costs. 
I hope that does'nt appear that i'm ramping.... Tech & Boogo... after all whats the chart telling you? CR @ $1? A downward trend? Or a trend reversal more to the point?


----------



## fastbuck1 (24 August 2012)

jancha said:


> Cant argue about lack of communication but if you go back to post 2914 on RED... evans and partners have had their analyst on site. There is an issue with the 20yr build up of silt which has been slowing down the process of production however once RED has got on top of that the better quality ore should be mined with better output. I dont know about increase in production costs but if there is one going on their last report they have long to go to be up with most of the other gold producers costs.
> I hope that does'nt appear that i'm ramping.... Tech & Boogo... after all whats the chart telling you? CR @ $1? A downward trend? Or a trend reversal more to the point?




Alls i can say is i topped up 5000@$1.25 , now there $1.56


----------



## tech/a (24 August 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> Alls i can say is i topped up 5000@$1.25 , now there $1.56




Of course you did!
I'm sure I read your post back there
At $1.25


----------



## jancha (24 August 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> Alls i can say is i topped up 5000@$1.25 , now there $1.56




Well done. So far RED is'nt showing any signs of reversal.


----------



## prawn_86 (25 August 2012)

fastbuck1 said:


> Alls i can say is i topped up 5000@$1.25 , now there $1.56




Please note ASFs guideline of posting real-time trades. If you are going to disclose your positions it is best to do it on the day you purchase.

It's easy to make a trade like that in hindsight 

Alternatively you can send me (or other mods) broker statements (with personal details edited out) if you do wish to prove the fact


----------



## mr. jeff (26 August 2012)

It wasn't long ago that we were all sitting on a 10 bagger either! Then once the shenanigans were completed and the share price was made more attractive to ......? it has since shot to the moon on the low cost production and share price accessibility for the institutionalised investors, Beetle cashed out and bought an island and I am now moving up from a commodore 64 to a pentium 100, which runs not on DOS but on Windows.

Seriously though, if you were new on the scene it would be an attractive buy at these levels, and I hope for those that are in at the moment that the run up continues. It certainly has a good chance. The US may help it along yet...


----------



## tech/a (30 August 2012)

tech/a said:


> Of course you did!
> I'm sure I read your post back there
> At $1.25




Now tell me you sold them last week!
You gun.



jancha said:


> Well done. So far RED is'nt showing any signs of reversal.




Ooops.


----------



## fastbuck1 (31 August 2012)

tech/a said:


> Now tell me you sold them last week!
> You gun.
> 
> 
> ...




no mate still holding, my post said "top up", these are a 12  month hold, my average is very low so can wait to see how this company pans out...


----------



## jancha (1 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Now tell me you sold them last week!
> You gun.
> 
> 
> ...




Tech... At that point in time RED was'nt showing any signs of a reversal. ( Go back and look at your charts) Not holding any atm but will be looking to come back in. When? Will be for me to know and you to find out.
Easy to go back in time and critise you Quacker.


----------



## tech/a (19 September 2012)

RED doing nothing
Like the thread.

So it goes to show all these announcements
and all these rehetorical lengthy dissective discussions
and NOTHING!

I joined this thread 12 mths ago.
Price was 15c then and today with 10:1
consolidation is now $1.49.


----------



## mardo (19 September 2012)

Tech/a.
You mean consolidating at $1.42 and still going south.Looks like bad news ahead!
Perhaps they havn`t met another production target ?


----------



## Robbo (20 September 2012)

Getting hammered at the moment, down 15%


----------



## Boggo (20 September 2012)

Robbo said:


> Getting hammered at the moment, down 15%




Straight through the first potential support area, $1.01 is next ??

(click to expand)


----------



## jancha (20 September 2012)

Bought back in today @ $1.225. Only guessing but i'd say production ore rate has been slowed down due to the slow process of the removal of silt. Management basically said this from thier last quarterly report and if thats the reason for the sell offs it was to be expected. Oversold imo and should correct....just hope it isn't any other issues.


----------



## robz7777 (20 September 2012)

Stock down 20% over 2 days on 2x and 4x recent volume... How can ASX not be asking questions?


----------



## tech/a (20 September 2012)

jancha said:


> *Bought back in today @ $1.225.* Only guessing but i'd say production ore rate has been slowed down due to the slow process of the removal of silt. Management basically said this from thier last quarterly report and if thats the reason for the sell offs it was to be expected. Oversold imo and should correct....just hope it isn't any other issues.




Excellent.
Some clear thinking
Ill relax now.


----------



## jancha (20 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Excellent.
> Some clear thinking
> Ill relax now.




Thats good to hear Tech.
 Maybe you can go for a swim in the lake while you relax.


----------



## jancha (20 September 2012)

jancha said:


> Thats good to hear Tech.
> Maybe you can go for a swim in the lake while you relax.




3. Is there any other explanation that the Company may have for the price change in the securities of the Company?
The Company is not aware of any reason for the change in price of the Company’s securities. However, in response to queries raised by shareholders, we confirm that as outlined in the June 2012 quarterly activities report, an estimated 140,000 cubic metres of silt accumulated at the pit floor has continued to be removed during the current quarter. The majority of the silt has now been removed, the floor of the pit is being exposed and the plant is operating, although not on a continuous basis at this point. The current cash position of the Company is $6 million (unaudited) and the US$8 million working capital standby facility remains undrawn.

As i was saying duckman the silt still remains the main concerns. By the way REDs still in the Phillippines.


----------



## tech/a (20 September 2012)

You know it never ceases to amaze me how the human species has to attach a reason to why and how things happen.
This was known in June yet takes till late September to be flipped up as "The reason".

The only thing you have to know is how to read supply to be profitable.
Pretty simple when your a duck.

The Phillipines---yes I flew over it once.


----------



## qldfrog (20 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Excellent.
> Some clear thinking
> Ill relax now.




hum still think it is worth a bet, I am in again at 1.22 and see if I can get a quick gain: just need some bad news, ->gold price rises and you can do a 20% gain; but stop loss ready and definitively not a long term investpor with red: have been burnt before


----------



## jancha (20 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> You know it never ceases to amaze me how the human species has to attach a reason to why and how things happen.
> This was known in June yet takes till late September to be flipped up as "The reason".
> 
> The only thing you have to know is how to read supply to be profitable.
> ...




 I wouldn't say flipped up.  People forget!!!
Traders forgot what RED was back in June and just followed the charts up over the months.
 Nothing has changed with REDs announcement to it's response to ASX from it's last quarter.
 RED will struggle to make headway and will continue to UNTIL the silt is removed... better ore mined and full production is in place. But is a RED bad buy? IMO No.

I'm sure you would have flown over the Cuckoos nest as well.


----------



## tech/a (20 September 2012)

If you like punting then fine punt.
You can only be wrong. No big deal.

Yeh flown over one of those
and flown off the handle,into a rage
and the coup.

Ive heard all the wise Quacks.


----------



## mardo (20 September 2012)

jancha said:


> I wouldn't say flipped up.  People forget!!!
> Traders forgot what RED was back in June and just followed the charts up over the months.
> Nothing has changed with REDs announcement to it's response to ASX from it's last quarter.
> RED will struggle to make headway and will continue to UNTIL the silt is removed... better ore mined and full production is in place. But is a RED bad buy? IMO No.
> ...




I agree nothing has changed just a few nervios nellies.
On 6th August Red Low  $1.16
On 27th August RED low $1.57 
Lets see what happens from Now till FEB next year thats when we will see the real value of RED in production IMO.


----------



## jancha (20 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> If you like punting then fine punt.
> You can only be wrong. No big deal.
> 
> Yeh flown over one of those
> ...




I suppose it's irrelevant to the thread but you can only be wrong too.... Dont you also punt on your analyst of the charts trying to predict where it's going? Or is it more a case of risk management for you in controlling your punting?
I may have bought in too soon by not waiting for a signal to re-enter but the only gamble imo with RED is if there is a unforeseen problem other than the silt issue.
Happy flying


----------



## notting (20 September 2012)

Would not have bet on that action today!
I thought it would be lucky to see 1.35 again.
Interesting to see what it does tomorrow if no announcements come as a result of speeding.
Canary in the gold mine?


----------



## jancha (20 September 2012)

notting said:


> Would not have bet on that action today!
> I thought it would be lucky to see 1.35 again.
> Interesting to see what it does tomorrow if no announcements come as a result of speeding.
> Canary in the gold mine?




Had an e-mail to verify that an announcement will be due out in a few days. I would say a buying opportunity at it's present price but that's only my opinion. Do your own research.


----------



## skyQuake (20 September 2012)

jancha said:


> Had an e-mail to verify that an announcement will be due out in a few days. I would say a buying opportunity at it's present price but that's only my opinion. Do your own research.




Careful... thats thin ice.

1 - company sent u an email reply saying news will be out shortly with no indication of what it is.

Thats just plain risky buying into an obvious bigger and probably better informed seller.

2 - company sent u an email reply saying news will be out shortly and hinted at what this will be about.

You are then quite possibly in possession of inside information and have gotten into a very uncomfortable position.


----------



## Boggo (20 September 2012)

jancha said:


> Had an e-mail to verify that an announcement will be due out in a few days. I would say a buying opportunity at it's present price but that's only my opinion. Do your own research.




Hmmm, no announcement to the market and the company management are leaking news, ASIC would be interested in this little gem


----------



## Crows (20 September 2012)

Boggo said:


> Hmmm, no announcement to the market and the company management are leaking news, ASIC would be interested in this little gem




Who's to say the company sent them this email? Could have been from another source, though one would jump straight to the assumption that it was indeed someone from the company. If it was, then oh boy, that'll be interesting...


----------



## jancha (21 September 2012)

skyQuake said:


> Careful... thats thin ice.
> 
> 1 - company sent u an email reply saying news will be out shortly with no indication of what it is.
> 
> ...



E-mail response

We are not aware of any reason why the share price has dropped so much over the last 2 days and
we plan to have a general update to the market within the next few days.
Regards,


 Lol Not exactly what i'd call inside trading.


----------



## mardo (21 September 2012)

jancha said:


> E-mail response
> 
> We are not aware of any reason why the share price has dropped so much over the last 2 days and
> we plan to have a general update to the market within the next few days.
> ...




Well its out NOW >>>SO you can all read it.


----------



## jancha (21 September 2012)

mardo said:


> Well its out NOW >>>SO you can all read it.




Looks like a knee jerk reaction...nothing alarming in the announcement.
I can only see a lot of upside for RED in the future. imo


----------



## jancha (21 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> You know it never ceases to amaze me how the human species has to attach a reason to why and how things happen.
> This was known in June yet takes till late September to be flipped up as "The reason".
> 
> The only thing you have to know is how to read supply to be profitable.
> ...




lol Hows the supply reading?


----------



## Boggo (21 September 2012)

jancha said:


> I can only see a lot of upside for RED in the future. imo




Its back to where it was in July 2011 now, next bit of "upside" should get it up to Aug 2011 levels :horse:


----------



## jancha (21 September 2012)

Boggo said:


> Its back to where it was in July 2011 now, next bit of "upside" should get it up to Aug 2011 levels :horse:




Your soo funny Boogo. 
From a trading perspective I like RED having these ups and downs. Nothing worse than a company not moving in any direction and stagnant.
My personal thoughts on REDs future tho are positive. I dont know if you've ever been in business but i'm guessing not as you would realize that with any new production line there are problems to sort out before running smoothly.
Now if RED didn't have gold in the ground that would be a problem but thats not the case. In fact because of the POG atm RED can look at increasing it's mine life for a further 3yrs. Why? Because it produces gold very cheaply.

The market is very cynical and crucifies any negativity in company announcements. Thats how the majority traders like yourself survive. Risk management.
To have a capture of flogging a dead horse in regard RED proves this.(cruelty to animals) would'nt the RSPA like to know about that!

How about we have a look at REDs business in 6mths when hiccups are hopefully sorted out... hey Boogo?


----------



## Ves (21 September 2012)

jancha said:


> lol Hows the supply reading?



I admit I don't know much about, or even use technical analysis, but logic would tell me that since it finished near the bottom of a very big red candle yesterday, and close to the bottom of a large candle today (both on increased volume) that sellers are still in control.

From a fundemantal perspective,  I wouldn't buy this stock because it fails the management test.  Over-promise and under-deliver.  You can have the best fundamental story in the world, but if management cannot be trusted then results will always be worse than expected.  It is fine for a company to have its problems, but sometimes management needs to take responsibility for these and give honest timelines for their resolution, rather than making big promises and continually saying that the stock is undervalued when it disappoints the market.


----------



## jancha (21 September 2012)

Ves said:


> I admit I don't know much about, or even use technical analysis, but logic would tell me that since it finished near the bottom of a very big red candle yesterday, and close to the bottom of a large candle today (both on increased volume) that sellers are still in control.
> 
> From a fundemantal perspective,  I wouldn't buy this stock because it fails the management test.  Over-promise and under-deliver.  You can have the best fundamental story in the world, but if management cannot be trusted then results will always be worse than expected.  It is fine for a company to have its problems, but sometimes management needs to take responsibility for these and give honest timelines for their resolution, rather than making big promises and continually saying that the stock is undervalued when it disappoints the market.




What promises are you referring to?


----------



## Ves (21 September 2012)

jancha said:


> What promises are you referring to?




Weren't they supposed to be in full production in May 2012 for a start? (I am sure there were earlier dates than that too...) They're blaming the silt,  I am no mining expert, but I certain that these problems can be foreseen and communicated to shareholders long before they occur.   Looks like they're great at covering up the negatives, and good at over-promoting the positives! The market is valuing this like an exploration company, because they keep delaying production.


----------



## tech/a (21 September 2012)

Was certainly looking good early on.
Sellers were swamped and stood by so price rose rapidly.
But as it came off sellers again swamped buyers and then pushed prices to near open.
So Supply still prevelant.


----------



## CanOz (21 September 2012)

Ves said:


> I admit I don't know much about, or even use technical analysis, but logic would tell me that since it finished near the bottom of a very big red candle yesterday, and close to the bottom of a large candle today (both on increased volume) that sellers are still in control.




You're a natural Ves!


----------



## jancha (21 September 2012)

Ves said:


> Weren't they supposed to be in full production in May 2012 for a start? (I am sure there were earlier dates than that too...) They're blaming the silt,  I am no mining expert, but I certain that these problems can be foreseen and communicated to shareholders long before they occur.   Looks like they're great at covering up the negatives, and good at over-promoting the positives! The market is valuing this like an exploration company, because they keep delaying production.




Time factor is always an issue with any company coming into production and of course they will think positively in things going forward. They have to think positive otherwise they wouldn't get anywhere.
 I vaguely remember when RED had an exceptional wet season (5m?)where they had a major set back.
 I dont think the silt issue was never unforeseen but more to the point under estimated in that the process was to just pump it out. As it turned out sump it out.... slower than anticipated.
Delays for sure but broken promises? I think that management have done the right thing in going about their business in general. No debt is a plus and the last CR @ $2.12(?)to sophisticated investors was good in the sense that management looked ahead and allowed for unforeseen circumstances.  
I could be wrong but I dont see any negatives here other than management not keeping the market up to date. At least I hope i'm correct in this as i look at the picture with RED and only see potential.
Certainly sellers controlling RED atm with larger than normal volumes buying and selling.
Guess i'm just a mug punter as Boogo was saying but show me the negatives in RED ( besides what the charts are saying) and i'll be happy to leave this thread. Maybe there is a hidden factor in sellers controlling or like BLY for example an over sell.


----------



## Ves (21 September 2012)

jancha said:


> I could be wrong but I dont see any negatives here other than management not keeping the market up to date.



It is probably closer to what I should have said.  A pretty big thing for me.  However, you obviously disagree otherwise you would not be holding.  That's what makes a market.


----------



## mr. jeff (23 September 2012)

jancha said:


> Time factor is always an issue with any company coming into production and of course they will think positively in things going forward. They have to think positive otherwise they wouldn't get anywhere.
> I vaguely remember when RED had an exceptional wet season (5m?)where they had a major set back.
> I dont think the silt issue was never unforeseen but more to the point under estimated in that the process was to just pump it out. As it turned out sump it out.... slower than anticipated.
> Delays for sure but broken promises? I think that management have done the right thing in going about their business in general. No debt is a plus and the last CR @ $2.12(?)to sophisticated investors was good in the sense that management looked ahead and allowed for unforeseen circumstances.
> ...




Bad communication is a strong signal that things are not right. When things are occurring as planned, announcements flow as management is proud of their work. As I see it, announcements by RED are usually late, when they come they are often disappointing to the market, and rarely have they recently met a target that they have set, even for a market update (from my recollection). So call it communication, but that is the whole fabric underlying their business, and if they cannot deliver on their intentions for whatever reasons, then that introduces risk to your money that may not be necessary for the possible gains. 

Further, assuming that analysts that spend their professional lives investigating these opportunities have been out there to see operations, and seeing the price action following commencement of mining, you could quite easily conclude that the market has so far voted against their cash costs and production forecasts thus far. 

I am sure that management is going as hard as they can in controlling and delivering, and I admire their commitment and struggle, but we are not here to support their work, we are here to make money. At this stage the scales don't balance in my mind. 

It may be worth considering Beetle's history with RED, being that he was in it for 8? years and didn't see his expected target, but remained hopeful. 
--------------------------------------------------------
Jancha, can you investigate any of the following goldies and tell me what you think;
BDR, PXG, YTC, ABU, AZH, LSA, RMS, SAR.


----------



## jancha (23 September 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> Bad communication is a strong signal that things are not right. When things are occurring as planned, announcements flow as management is proud of their work. As I see it, announcements by RED are usually late, when they come they are often disappointing to the market, and rarely have they recently met a target that they have set, even for a market update (from my recollection). So call it communication, but that is the whole fabric underlying their business, and if they cannot deliver on their intentions for whatever reasons, then that introduces risk to your money that may not be necessary for the possible gains.
> 
> Further, assuming that analysts that spend their professional lives investigating these opportunities have been out there to see operations, and seeing the price action following commencement of mining, you could quite easily conclude that the market has so far voted against their cash costs and production forecasts thus far.
> 
> ...




Understand what your saying here especially the part about making money.
 Looking at the charts you would'nt touch RED but fundamentally there's a lot of positives.
However there'd be quite a few nervous investors including myself out there over the last few days with the selling down but i keep going back to the fundamentals of RED and if it's just the silt issue and the under production rate  that's causing it?  8yrs to get to this point and 6mths into production... I'll keep trading in and out of them unless there's another underlying problem we dont know about as yet. In @ a low sp so happy to ride it out for now but i'm guessing it will bounce back.  There'd be a lot more stocks to trade out there other than RED eg. NST ( usually better volume in trading) and i have also traded in and out of SAR.  They're are the 3 goldies that i generally punt with.


----------



## tech/a (24 September 2012)

Red is really showing support at the Low $1.20s creating excellent
short term trading opportunities for people like Jancha.


----------



## jancha (24 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Red is really showing support at the Low $1.20s creating excellent
> short term trading opportunities for people like Jancha.




Well if RED close above or on their opening of price $1.29 i'll be a bit more confident in thinking it will head back to where it was prior to the large sell down. imo
I could be wrong in saying this but RED generally is a low volume trading stock..If a large holder wishes to get out for one reason or another it can trigger a sell off....stop losses, market sentiment ect correct? 
Yourself and boogo have criticized these so called ramps on RED by myself and others in the past but when you look at the fundamentals and all the positives i truely dont see it as a ramp. You can argue then at....why isn't it at a higher sp? Personally I to dont think that REDs sp will vary much until production is running smoothly and that could take up to another 6mths. So in the meantime where are investors going to place there money for best return...Not RED.

I'm thinking positive here that once the silt issue is resolved and RED is mining the better quality ore underneath and by that an increase in production RED should start to see a considerable increase in sp.imo
I dont see this as ramping only a potential result for RED. I could be wrong and (going by the charts I am) but until then i'll keep trading in and out of RED.
Boogo has stated me as being a mug punter (you probably think the same) and yourself called me a liar.
As i've said in the past i've traded RED over 100 times the last 3yrs.... and as you both pointed out it has'nt gone anywhere in all this time...
You call me a liar or a mug punter but i have'nt just held on to RED waiting for that blue sky but simply bought in and out taking profits and losses along the way. The company i'm trading has potential and is'nt going to go down the gurgler anytime soon.imo Thats why i'm comfortable in trading in and out of it.


----------



## jancha (24 September 2012)

Well RED never looked like testing the low $1.20s today. Positive signs that it's correcting on chartist point of view.
Even put it at a buy at this stage looking at it. 

Hey Boogo whats your take on it..... still a dollar?


----------



## mardo (2 October 2012)

tech/a said:


> Red is really showing support at the Low $1.20s creating excellent
> short term trading opportunities for people like Jancha.




Strong day for RED I hope you got aboard before  $1.50.


----------



## mr. jeff (3 October 2012)

Great news, I hope they have their work in order, commence steady low cost production and start churning out some gold bars now. 

18kOz in Dec quarter = 72kOz per annum

Will they revise their annual steady production target or keep ramping up ? It would be nice to see some proactive plans in the near future stating how management is going to bring the mine on line to meet their targets, forget any dates on it though that would just be insulting.

For now they may be able to ride a swing in sentiment and the current gold price. 




Awful chart and nothing to work with in my mind though. 
Target 1.70 first up. 

Target 2.17 if they get new operations staff or some other major internal change to restore some confidence/hope.
Take over offer at a 43% permium would be 2.20 and a dangerous move given history of the area and the mine. Could be possible but unlikely.


And a macro look with no further insights except to say erratic consolidation. If you left this stock in Dec 2010, well done. This is a 4 year weekly. The final comment "a major is coming back?" at this stage is not confidence inspiring, with the volume on the daily showing someone shuffling off a large slice recently. Nevertheless, if it moves above 1.60, it may have a look at $2 judging by its history.


----------



## jancha (5 October 2012)

RED looking fairly good. A nice bounce back from $1.20 now @ $1.70. Silt doesn't seem to be an issue now as reflected in the price.
Note: how Boogo only appears on this thread when RED drops. I guess he's the opposite of if you dont have anything positive to say dont say anything. Still waiting for that $1 forcast Boogo?


----------



## CanOz (5 October 2012)

Just tracking the gold price isn't it?


----------



## jancha (5 October 2012)

CanOz said:


> Just tracking the gold price isn't it?




That plus the other factors. Dont think all the gold stocks have jumped 30% in the last few weeks. RED was at a low $1.185 then. Was just a good opportunity for those with confident in RED to bounce back after a large sell off. Blue skys ahead...who knows but at least they're have sorted out the silt issue and in full production now. Next quarterly should tell.


----------



## Boggo (5 October 2012)

jancha said:


> RED looking fairly good. A nice bounce back from $1.20 now @ $1.70. Silt doesn't seem to be an issue now as reflected in the price.
> *Note: how Boogo only appears on this thread when RED drops. I guess he's the opposite of if you dont have anything positive to say dont say anything. Still waiting for that $1 forcast Boogo?*




Oh dear jancha, you are so out of touch with how stocks are traded that it really is embarrassing to watch.
While you are reading (your rehashed every couple of months) silt reports others are getting on with extracting money from the predictable behaviour of those who are totally and constantly dependant on company reports for guidance.

Not sure why I bother to respond to childish comments, maybe I am hoping that the penny might drop but I doubt it as you seem to be a life member of the 95% community can't consistently make a quid but are never short of rocket scientist comments.
Maybe you need to grow up and stop lowering the standard of this forum to those of forae that would be better suited to being a part of.

It's as simple as this jacha, identify crowd mentality and silty reports behaviour utthedoor:
Waiting (not holding my breath) for your enlightening method 
(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo (5 October 2012)

CanOz said:


> Just tracking the gold price isn't it?




Yep, that and the silt following masses behaving predictably.
At its hight today it is back to where it was in August 2011 - good investment 

Lets compare that with a real gold miner, RRL was around $2.60 in August 2011


----------



## Boggo (5 October 2012)

jancha said:


> ...who knows but at least they're have sorted out the silt issue and in full production now. *Next quarterly should tell*.




I think I just found your method, I rest my case


----------



## jancha (5 October 2012)

Boggo said:


> I think I just found your method, I rest my case




Good to see a typical response from you Boogo. 
Point one you wouldn't have a clue to what method of trading i use but i can say I dont sit and look at a cyrstal ball all day as you do.
 At least i'm open minded to all indicators technically and fundamentally.
As you keep pointing out RED hasn't gained any ground over the years but even blind freddie knows you can still make a profit on trading it. Hell who wants a stock that just sits at the same level. Who cares where it was 2years ago. Jeez i thought you had more brains than that! RED was $1.185 two weeks ago. Where is it now you guru? Up 30%! No longer holding by the way but does'nt mean i wont be later on. (I'll let you know when you should buy back in by the charts.lol)
 A silly question for you is why do bother posting comments on this thread when your just not interested RED. You only tend to jump on the thread when RED tumbles. Like stirring the pot hey.
Anyway your right on one thing and it is childish as are your statements so why dont you stick to treads that you are interested in as i do?
Wish i could be like your a legend


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 October 2012)

jancha said:


> A silly question for you is why do bother posting comments on this thread when your just not interested RED. You only tend to jump on the thread when RED tumbles. Like stirring the pot hey.




Geezus this is childish. I feel like I'm reading a transcript from a prep school playground.

Grow up it was you that stated the rubbish with your post at 2:00 pm. Post like yours make this a much poorer place to be.


----------



## jancha (5 October 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Geezus this is childish. I feel like I'm reading a transcript from a prep school playground.
> 
> Grow up it was you that stated the rubbish with your post at 2:00 pm. Post like yours make this a much poorer place to be.




Dont read it then.    You do have an option.  
So called rubbish is exactly what i'm talking about. Wait when RED drops again and see what i mean with the ill directed rubbish thats posted by the above. That's is childish. Just thought i'd get in first and make a point of it. Boogo's been predicting $1 everytime RED drops. Nothing positive and no interest in the stock so i suggest if you dont have an interest in it you do the same.


----------



## Joe Blow (5 October 2012)

jancha said:


> RED looking fairly good. A nice bounce back from $1.20 now @ $1.70. Silt doesn't seem to be an issue now as reflected in the price.




Jancha, your post was fine up until this point. Then...



jancha said:


> Note: how Boogo only appears on this thread when RED drops. I guess he's the opposite of if you dont have anything positive to say dont say anything. Still waiting for that $1 forcast Boogo?




...you decided to attack Boggo without any provocation at all, which was what caused the conflict in the next few posts. 

I have said it many times before and I will say it again: It is not a personal attack on holders to present bearish analysis on a particular stock. If a company's share price is looking weak there is nothing wrong with pointing it out, including making observations about previous levels of support. If only those holding a stock were entitled to comment on it, all we would ever get is a slanted bullish view rather than a more balanced one. All perspectives are both permitted and encouraged so those considering buying in have a variety of points of view to consider.

If you disagree with someone's analysis you are entitled to critique it. That is the whole point of having a discussion in the first place. However, taking potshots at other thread participants because they hold a different opinion is not acceptable behaviour because it almost always creates unnecessary conflict and drags threads off topic.

So please stick to discussing the content of each other's posts, rather than each other personally.


----------



## mardo (6 October 2012)

Boggo ,Thanks for the chart.
My theory is that if it goes past $1.73 and holds volume we may quickly go to $2.10 level which broke down in mid March when Cap raising was announced.Plenty of gold there only their execution has had lots of slippage.
Gold price at the moment is very posative .


----------



## mr. jeff (6 October 2012)

mardo said:


> Boggo ,Thanks for the chart.
> My theory is that if it goes past $1.73 and holds volume we may quickly go to $2.10 level which broke down in mid March when Cap raising was announced.Plenty of gold there only their execution has had lots of slippage.
> Gold price at the moment is very posative .




Well - a blown off top for the week, closing at 1.67. 

Would be nice to see a retest of the 1.60 level Monday, which is possible due to the easing of the gold price overnight. If this level holds up on low volume then it's on. Risky area though and has been tested twice before.


----------



## Boggo (6 October 2012)

mardo said:


> *My theory is that if it goes past $1.73 and holds volume we may quickly go to $2.10 level* which broke down in mid March when Cap raising was announced.Plenty of gold there only their execution has had lots of slippage.
> Gold price at the moment is very posative .




I think you are seeing what I am seeing there mardo, so far the boxes have been ticked 

mr. jeff's comment below addresses the potential issue 



mr. jeff said:


> Well - a blown off top for the week, closing at 1.67.
> Would be nice to see a retest of *the 1.60 level* Monday, which is possible due to the easing of the gold price overnight. If this level holds up on low volume then it's on. *Risky area though and has been tested twice before*.




(click to expand)


----------



## notting (6 October 2012)

Doesn't get much clearer than that.
Wave 3 certainly off to a fine start!
Thanks Boggo charts are great.


----------



## Trademyshoes (7 October 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> Well - a blown off top for the week, closing at 1.67.
> 
> Would be nice to see a retest of the 1.60 level Monday, which is possible due to the easing of the gold price overnight. If this level holds up on low volume then it's on. Risky area though and has been tested twice before.




G'day,

I'm new to this forum and somewhat new to trading and have been looking at the RED chart as the debate rages in this thread. This might be quite the bad analysis but I did want to respond to your hopes of RED re-testing 1.60 due to gold easing. 

I'd say a re-test of the 1.60 mark is inevidable. I can't comment on RED fundamentals but I can say that the Gold price is becoming quite stagnant and US data which perked up the US markets over Thursday and Friday saw gold lose steam which I'm convinced is going to continue on Monday.

If this has any affect on RED I can see a re-test of 1.60 which happens to be the old resistance level during early September.

In RED's defence the fact it is trading above the 100MA is a good sign. The only thing that hinders the short term view is the Stochastics indicating downside - which I think negates the MACD's bullish indication.

I can't for the life of me determine what it was that brought this stock from peak highs to an almost 50 percent loss in price.


----------



## mr. jeff (7 October 2012)

Trademyshoes said:


> G'day,
> 
> I can't for the life of me determine what it was that brought this stock from peak highs to an almost 50 percent loss in price.




You shouldn't have added that comment! 

In the interest of everyone's sanity, let's just say that there were more sellers than buyers and move on to the future (which may be full of devalued currencies and/or/RED gold).


----------



## Trademyshoes (7 October 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> You shouldn't have added that comment!
> 
> In the interest of everyone's sanity, let's just say that there were more sellers than buyers and move on to the future (which may be full of devalued currencies and/or/RED gold).




Haha - what makes you say that?

Sorry; I'm not attempting to lay a cloud of confusion or heat up yet another debate. Merely just thinking out loud


----------



## Boggo (8 October 2012)

Trademyshoes said:


> I can't for the life of me determine what it was that brought this stock *from peak highs* to an almost 50 percent loss in price.




In most cases I think it is worthwhile looking at it the other way round, ie. what took it to the peak highs prior to reality setting in. The reality is that the market always seems to find the true value.

In the case of RED there was an abundance of news items from around July 2011 that painted a rosy picture which understandably led many to get involved which in turn drive the price to unsustainable levels (the peak high).
Example extract from a publically available report...


----------



## jancha (8 October 2012)

Boggo said:


> In most cases I think it is worthwhile looking at it the other way round, ie. what took it to the peak highs prior to reality setting in. The reality is that the market always seems to find the true value.
> 
> In the case of RED there was an abundance of news items from around July 2011 that painted a rosy picture which understandably led many to get involved which in turn drive the price to unsustainable levels (the peak high).
> Example extract from a publically available report...




Most companies if not all paint a rosy picture of what they anticipate...but abundance of news?? lol
If the reality is the market finding it's true value then why was RED $1.185 a few weeks back and now $1.60.
Is it over valued now or at it's true value?... what ever it is atm is its true value right.
You mention the news as REDs driving force for it's highs back then.
If REDs next quarterly comes out with production figures true to their expectations would the market already have factored that in prior to the announcement?
If so would the estimated value of RED with some brokers of $3+ be realized or will it sit where it is?
 REDs last CR to sophisticated investors at $2.12? Jeez what were they thinking... They're probably a large punters club betting blindly on RED lol.
Not holding RED atm but imo there's a lot of potential down the track.
Good hear that the Phillippines have come to a peaceful resolution with the muslims over there.
A little bit more peace of mind with RED.
Now back to AVQ


----------



## qldfrog (9 October 2012)

qldfrog said:


> hum still think it is worth a bet, I am in again at 1.22 and see if I can get a quick gain: just need some bad news, ->gold price rises and you can do a 20% gain; but stop loss ready and definitively not a long term investpor with red: have been burnt before




just a bit of feedback pn this: 
was in on the 20/09 at 1:22 and stop loss exit at 1.53 on the 8/10->$600 profit for 2.5k at risk
not bad result for a 20 days venture;
I have been burnt before by red so the tight stop loss and the relatively small bet....


----------



## dave1234 (17 October 2012)

And the rollercoaster continues!


----------



## notting (31 October 2012)

Not happy with todays report Jan!
Fallen about 17%


----------



## mr. jeff (31 October 2012)

I cannot post a chart at this point due to the hurricane, but referring to previous posted weekly chart, I would say a target of 1.25 is on the table, possibly followed by 1.10.

This news means that nothing has changed within the company / mine and surprises keep coming. It was a recent release which stated:



> ASX report to shareholders 2 October 2012:
> "With silt at the bottom of the pit no longer an issue and with the ore interface exposed over a reasonable part of the pit floor, the mine is now in a position to deliver consistent tonnages to the process plant".




This "very" low cost gold mine is still costing more than it is making and with this hit to sentiment it may take a while to recover.
I guess the pressure of getting into production was too great to spend more on clearing the issues out earlier, which is understandable, but a lot of people have just been bitten hard.


----------



## Boggo (31 October 2012)

notting said:


> Not happy with todays report Jan!
> Fallen about 17%




Extract from page 3 of the report may have an influence...


----------



## mr. jeff (31 October 2012)

Boggo said:


> Extract from page 3 of the report may have an influence...




Not good. If they don't take debt then there might have to be a capital raising on bad news unless dore sales can come through for them. CR would have to be at around 1.10 - 1.15 at the most based on the chart.

In old speak that is 11 cps.


----------



## Ves (31 October 2012)

Boggo said:


> Extract from page 3 of the report may have an influence...



Quite right.  The thing to realise with mining companies (and part of the reason why I would never touch any of them) is that the longer the mine takes to become a cash flow positive operation, the more cash that shareholders need to throw in.  It might still be a low-cost producer one day, but by that point, it is more likely than not that shareholders will be so diluted that it won't matter.


----------



## notting (15 November 2012)

Managing director steps down.
stock - Dummy spit!


----------



## jancha (15 November 2012)

notting said:


> Managing director steps down.
> stock - Dummy spit!




Lol He's excepted a Consultants role with the company focused on Government and community relations. Does that mean he's still on the payroll? Another expense for RED?
Interesting to see who takes his place.


----------



## mr. jeff (18 November 2012)

jancha said:


> Lol He's excepted a Consultants role with the company focused on Government and community relations. Does that mean he's still on the payroll? Another expense for RED?
> Interesting to see who takes his place.




Any info on who the replacement is? This could be a catalyst for re-rate on this stock. A great reversal on Friday...chart looks like a buy at this stage.
Will be interesting to see what happens this week.


----------



## Buckfont (21 November 2012)

Boggo was right, nudging a dollar now. beatle retreated in the nick of time with his tail between his legs now. What a sad story this has been for the latecomers. Greg Canavan still has a positive spin on it. 

Hope the light at the end of the tunnel if any isn`t a train coming the other way. Still holding a small portion but the worst choice I have made in a long time. Thank heavens for me RRL


----------



## jancha (27 November 2012)

Certainly have to give credit where credits due. Boogo has been calling a $1 for awhile now
I got out @ $1.55 awhile back but thinking at 97c it might be time to come back on board. The question is will there be a rebound or will it go lower? I'm backing the former. Who says you cant make money on a down trend.


----------



## tech/a (28 November 2012)

jancha said:


> Certainly have to give credit where credits due. Boogo has been calling a $1 for awhile now
> I got out @ $1.55 awhile back but thinking at 97c it might be time to come back on board. The question is will there be a rebound or will it go lower? I'm backing the former. Who says you cant make money on a down trend.




If there is one thing you should do it's go back and read your 
Rubbish directed at BOGGO and realize how utterly ridiculous you look and sound.
A constant Tiraid of degrading gibberish which frankly has exposed you for what
You are ---- hot air--- full of opinions and bugger all else.

*Better to be silent and say nothing and thought a fool than opening your mouth and removing all doubt*

Nice analysis BOGGO.


----------



## jancha (29 November 2012)

tech/a said:


> If there is one thing you should do it's go back and read your
> Rubbish directed at BOGGO and realize how utterly ridiculous you look and sound.
> A constant Tiraid of degrading gibberish which frankly has exposed you for what
> You are ---- hot air--- full of opinions and bugger all else.
> ...




Typical BS from you Tech. This is exactly how the slinging got started with off topic post like yours.
Just because you and yourside kick get it right now again doesn't mean your right all the time.
Why dont stick to the tread instead of personal attacts on members who dont agree with your methods.
I've made a profit on the way down with RED as i've posted. You've called me basically a lair and challenged for me to show my profits and loss to the admin. You even offered a $500 bet up front..(childish as trembling hand would say)
Go have a good look at who started the childish rubbish you post and still do with your personal attacts.  

Why are you answering for Boogo.... cant he post for himself? 

Thought you were retiring from ASF?

The only thing I can think of is you're trying to p off as many members that haven't comformed with your methods.
Maybe the heat down south is frying your brain and feathers.

Try and stick to the tread. I paid a compliment not a personal attact if you read the post correctly.


----------



## jancha (30 November 2012)

RED seems to have support around the $1.  Happy to hold @ 97c and let it rebound. Even if they have a CR i think RED will see the black and the gold in the future. Still early days in production and other prospects to unearth down the track. Just a buying another buying opportunity imo.


----------



## Boggo (3 December 2012)

This needs a change of direction within the next 4 or 5 cents otherwise its looking at the next target area of sub 70c.

Classic case of 'When your outgo exceeds your income then your upkeep will be your downfall'.

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a (4 December 2012)

jancha said:


> RED seems to have support around the $1.  Happy to hold @ 97c and let it rebound. Even if they have a CR i think RED will see the black and the gold in the future. Still early days in production and other prospects to unearth down the track. Just a buying another buying opportunity imo.




Expensive--so far.
Still holding?



> Who says you cant make money on a down trend.




That $500 still up for grabs.


----------



## prawn_86 (4 December 2012)

These guys were mentioned as a potential takeover target for Oceania Gold if Oceania can raise their targeted funds in their cap raising just announced.

There was another gold co mentioned in the same sentence but i missed it


----------



## sammy84 (4 December 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> These guys were mentioned as a potential takeover target for Oceania Gold if Oceania can raise their targeted funds in their cap raising just announced.
> 
> There was another gold co mentioned in the same sentence but i missed it




Watch the bots at work today!

Very interesting course of sales. Probably only a few $k worth of trades at .88-.885. But the bid is keeping there or lower. Somebody is trying to drive this price down.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 December 2012)

sammy84 said:


> Watch the bots at work today!
> 
> Very interesting course of sales. Probably only a few $k worth of trades at .88-.885. But the bid is keeping there or lower. Somebody is trying to drive this price down.




Yeah sellers!


----------



## tech/a (4 December 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah sellers!




There are just no buyers.
Sellers are needing to take lower
offers.
Volume crap so this indicates pure lack
of interest no push from sellers---


----------



## sammy84 (4 December 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah sellers!




Not a lot of selling/accumulating being done at these prices b/w .88-.89 though


----------



## jancha (4 December 2012)

tech/a said:


> Expensive--so far.
> Still holding?
> 
> 
> ...




No Actually sold the other day at a small loss and bought MAD with it. 
Still in the Black with RED but others have more appeal for me atm.
Just wondering if you ever made a profit trading RED Tech...you seem to spend an aweful lot of time on this thread? Sour Grapes perhaps?

$500? put a couple of zeros on the end of it chump then i'd be happy to show my profits and loss on RED. If not put a sock in it.


----------



## tech/a (4 December 2012)

MAD is an interesting buy.

Glad you got out.
I like the RED thread/its the whoa full analysis
that has me coming back for more.
Just like PEN.---HHL 
and soon quite possibly MAD.

Personally I trade FTSE and DAX futures.
Just enjoy working with "P" platers.

Its not your profits in RED that would interest me its profit *period.*


----------



## tech/a (5 December 2012)

In at .94c today nice reversal no supply
to speak of.

Initial stop was .86 now moved to .91

Resistance at $1.20 and $1.40 ish.
Both are my initial targets and will trade according to how 
supply reacts at these levels.


----------



## rnr (6 December 2012)

tech/a said:


> In at .94c today nice reversal no supply
> to speak of.
> 
> Initial stop was .86 now moved to .91
> ...




Looks like a classic bullish divergence trade!


----------



## qldfrog (6 December 2012)

tech/a said:


> In at .94c today nice reversal no supply
> to speak of.
> 
> Initial stop was .86 now moved to .91
> ...



not so lucky for me was in at 98 and 96c with a SL at 88 which got triggered the day before and lost $400
arrggg
yet yesterday morning, POG was collapsing so did not really see any shot up........ 
I have lost so often with RED I will end up giving up altogether


----------



## tech/a (6 December 2012)

Dont blame you its a dog of a stock.

Im only trading it as I saw the opportunity
Risk is low so pulled the trigger.
More a challenge in analysis than anything.

Might get lucky if a T/O rumour comes good.


----------



## jancha (6 December 2012)

Sold some of my MAD and bought a small parcel at 92c. Looks like RED has spent the last of their funds and be looking for a CR? And if they do i wonder if this time it will be to the general public.    
T/O?
 Cost to set up the plant was 100mil? Shares on market 135mil. Could be a cheap buy.
 RED needs to start showing some positive output in order to survive.


----------



## tech/a (6 December 2012)

Put my stop at B/E after .96 was taken out and it went back to .98c
At 12 ish
Consequently Im out at $5 brokerage loss.

They made a movie about a dog called RED if I recall.


----------



## jancha (6 December 2012)

tech/a said:


> Put my stop at B/E after .96 was taken out and it went back to .98c
> At 12 ish
> Consequently Im out at $5 brokerage loss.
> 
> They made a movie about a dog called RED if I recall.




Yes i remember that Dog when i was working in Dampier for Hamersley Iron back then.
Like RED he wandered around a lot. Bad luck on RED Tech stick to BLACK.


----------



## notting (6 December 2012)

In the last announcement management was exasperated about the fact that the thing is trading at less value than what it cost to build the infrastructure!!
I don't know why because so far it looks like it's build in the wrong place.
An abandoned mine that can barely be mined any more.
Well that's the story so far.
That little rally occurred after the thing was not further buried in silt and mud by a new hurricane!
Those not following the story very well maybe thought it had tanked because of that possible threat then dived in to the RED once that new threat had passed.
It has already had a massive unseasonable 250 or so mm dumped on it and now it's the start of the wet season!!
50c is generous in the short term I reckon.
I might start getting interested when it's 20.


----------



## burglar (6 December 2012)

tech/a said:


> ...
> They made a movie about a dog called RED if I recall.




"RED DOG", the Movie, is a fiction.

In real life, RED DOG (of Dampier fame)
was a viscious brute, known to bite to get his way!!

:


----------



## skyQuake (10 December 2012)

tech/a i have a few wider stops than you; After the reversal on the 5th, it has yet to make a lower low on the daily. That and a fair few goldies have turned around.

Out below 90c (daily lower lows)


----------



## tech/a (10 December 2012)

Fair enough
At least you have an escape clause


----------



## jancha (10 December 2012)

Out for a small profit of $400. Picked up some PRU at $2.25.


----------



## skyQuake (12 December 2012)

1/2 out @ 1.185

Happy to buy pullbacks (if any)


----------



## khamtran (17 December 2012)

Can anyone shed some light on Red's 8 plus percent rise today?


----------



## sammy84 (17 December 2012)

BOTs in full swing again today in the 1.27-1.28 range. Feel like a capital raising could be on the way.

Sold half @1.265.


----------



## skyQuake (17 December 2012)

sold the stuff i bought on the pullback on thurs too, very happy to hold initial longs and buy future dips.

As for why its up 8%?

Big buyer came in today; When the other golds rolled over RED didnt even budge


----------



## mardo (17 December 2012)

skyQuake said:


> sold the stuff i bought on the pullback on thurs too, very happy to hold initial longs and buy future dips.
> 
> As for why its up 8%?
> 
> Big buyer came in today; When the other golds rolled over RED didnt even budge




Good call SkyQuake! 
Way oversold,I think we may get a posative announcement on their $25 mio funding package soon.


----------



## khamtran (18 December 2012)

skyQuake said:


> sold the stuff i bought on the pullback on thurs too, very happy to hold initial longs and buy future dips.
> 
> As for why its up 8%?
> 
> Big buyer came in today; When the other golds rolled over RED didnt even budge




Thanks for the insight.


----------



## skyQuake (19 December 2012)

dips!


----------



## jancha (19 December 2012)

skyQuake said:


> dips!




Dips all round. POG Cheers


----------



## notting (19 December 2012)

Was annoyed that I had no way of being able to put a big short on it yesterday.
Gold is going to visit Alaska for a while.


----------



## jancha (19 December 2012)

notting said:


> Was annoyed that I had no way of being able to put a big short on it yesterday.
> Gold is going to visit Alaska for a while.




North even tho it's been heading south?


----------



## notting (19 December 2012)

jancha said:


> North even tho it's been heading south?




Goldistocks?

Alaska


----------



## jancha (19 December 2012)

notting said:


> Goldistocks?
> 
> Alaska
> 
> View attachment 50033




Very good. So bears for goldie and Bulls for Olivoil?


----------



## skyQuake (19 December 2012)

favouring RED over the other goldies atm. Buying strong ones like RED and selling weaklings like OGC IAU PRU IGR SBM

Index event friday so be careful about holding longs/shorts into that


----------



## dave1234 (31 January 2013)

So Gold is doing well, these guys found some....what is happening?


----------



## ChrisJH (3 February 2013)

Any insight from our techies on RED?

I'd like to get in again for a quick few dollars; but I'm no good at reading tea leaves.


----------



## tech/a (3 February 2013)

ChrisJH said:


> Any insight from our techies on RED?
> 
> I'd like to get in again for a quick few dollars; but I'm no good at reading tea leaves.




No good news I'm afraid.

*CLICK TO EXPAND*


----------



## dave1234 (15 February 2013)

Looks like you've called it right again t/a.


----------



## Boggo (6 March 2013)

That bit didn't hold, back to around the May 2009 levels now and very quiet around the RED campfire 

(click to expand)


----------



## Buckfont (6 March 2013)

Nothing to fan the flames from beatle. Was he a plant. Hmmmm I wonder. Took off like he had buckshot in his ar$e


----------



## Porper (7 March 2013)

Could be a falling wedge evolving but still has downside before completing. 

Positives are:

1. volume subsiding on latest push down.

2. Bullish divergence on daily chart.

All in all not looking at a significant low quite yet. A bounce is on the cards though.


----------



## Porper (17 March 2013)

Porper said:


> Could be a falling wedge evolving but still has downside before completing.
> 
> Positives are:
> 
> ...




The bullish divergence has now unwound with the potential for bearish divergence to trigger over the next day or two.

Positive close on Friday but volume was exceptionally high which is a warning sign. Large volume would have been ok but not that high. I'd be looking for a surge higher Monday with clear rejection resulting in a low close. If so then weakness will likely return.


----------



## tech/a (18 March 2013)

Porper said:


> The bullish divergence has now unwound with the potential for bearish divergence to trigger over the next day or two.
> 
> Positive close on Friday but volume was exceptionally high which is a warning sign. Large volume would have been ok but not that high. I'd be looking for a surge higher Monday with clear rejection resulting in a low close. If so then weakness will likely return.




I agree but if we don't see clear rejection
Or a consolidation over a few bars this could 
Double in price.


----------



## Porper (18 March 2013)

tech/a said:


> I agree but if we don't see clear rejection
> Or a consolidation over a few bars this could
> Double in price.




Yep, if there is follow through demand then all bets are off in respect to another leg lower to complete the falling wedge. In fact the falling wedge has just about been invalidated after Friday's bounce. Next couple of days action should be enough to determine direction over next few weeks.


----------



## Porper (4 April 2013)

A much talked about stock initiated by the rampers has gone deadly silent. They obviously got burnt on this stock. When sentiment is at it's lowest though it's often the time to take an interest. Sentiment in Gold & RED very low...could go lower.

The falling wedge could be near a terminal point. Volume falling lately signifies selling pressure subsiding.

There are also 3 time cycles commencing in early June that need to be watched so probably still some downside, but watching.


----------



## Boggo (4 April 2013)

Spot on tech/a, nice work...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=8971&page=155&p=753075&viewfull=1#post753075


----------



## jancha (4 April 2013)

Boggo said:


> Spot on tech/a, nice work...
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=8971&page=155&p=753075&viewfull=1#post753075




You two should get a room. Most of the gold stocks are looking the same on the charts.


----------



## tech/a (4 April 2013)

jancha said:


> You two should get a room. Most of the gold stocks are looking the same on the charts.




*ENVY* 

*Not a good look*



Meanwhile Boggo Looks on as "The Duck" scores another Bulls-eye.


----------



## Boggo (4 April 2013)

jancha said:


> You two should get a room. *Most of the gold stocks are looking the same on the charts*.




We know that too


----------



## qldfrog (30 April 2013)

Trading halt pending another probably disastrous announcement
what a rat..
Maybe I am too pessimistic but my 3 year experience with this stock is not positive
I do not hold anymore....


----------



## Boggo (30 April 2013)

qldfrog said:


> Trading halt pending another probably disastrous announcement




From the report...

_Milling operations were suspended, as a precaution on 24 April 2013
following early detection of subsidence on a minor portion of the external
wall of the tailings dam. Representatives of the design engineers were
immediately mobilised to site.
Regrettably, over the last 96 hours, further subsidence has been logged
and the movement has not yet stabilised. Investigations have not yet
established the cause.
For clarity, there has been no tailings dam spill and no environmental
damage. Neither is there any immediate impact on mining activities._


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 July 2013)

I love this chart.....


----------



## Boggo (29 July 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> I love this chart.....
> 
> View attachment 53594




At least the volume is consistent


----------



## skyQuake (30 July 2013)

Cap raising at 35c! Last trade at 62c mid april...

Seems like a mighty high price considering most other gold miners have halved from april till now anyway!

The fact that its not underwritten makes it really worrying.


----------



## skc (30 July 2013)

skyQuake said:


> Cap raising at 35c! Last trade at 62c mid april...
> 
> Seems like a mighty high price considering most other gold miners have halved from april till now anyway!
> 
> The fact that its not underwritten makes it really worrying.




It's a touch enviornment to be raising, let alone the circumstances faced by RED. It'd be a tough ask at that price... There will probably be a mass exodus from existing holders as soon as it starts trading (which is after the cap raising), and there's not a fat chance in the world that they will trade above 35c raising price.

However, if shareholders don't put up, chances are RED will go under. So it's a choice between 100% loss on the current shareholding, or may be 50% loss on the capital raising BUT get something back from the current holding.

Pretty crap situation all round...


----------



## qldfrog (31 July 2013)

I followed that company for a while and saw it all: screw up after screw up, incompetent management (well probably not for their own pocket), release and absence of , delays, and I gave up after trading these shares over the last three years..
I lost money overall but also a good lesson on how to deal (or more exactly not to deal with juniors)
just checked: I traded them 20 times last FY and ultimately did a small loss by a few hundred dollars but what a lesson.
Probably will resurface renamed as a bio, namo particle company next year :-(


----------



## jancha (31 July 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> I love this chart.....
> 
> View attachment 53594




Yeah It looks a bit like your heart rate. lol


----------



## Goldexplorer (17 October 2013)

jancha said:


> Yeah It looks a bit like your heart rate. lol




Well it looks like this one has lost it's heart beat along with all the posters on here.

What ever happened to the old timer Beatle who was in the top 20?

Notice the previous M.D is now the share holders friend on another forum.   LOL, how times change


----------



## Des P (1 November 2013)

If they drop another 2 Cents they will back to where they started in September 2007


----------



## notting (1 November 2013)

You have to admit they picked a good time come back on line. 
It's the only sector providing entertainment at the moment and today was a doosy!


----------



## stockGURU (4 November 2013)

RED relisted on Friday after being suspended from trading for more than six months and copped an absolute flogging. Still getting punished today by those looking to get out after such a long suspension.

Down to 9.7c as I write this.


----------



## tech/a (4 November 2013)

And there you go.
My spruiking of a stop loss at $1.35 ish 
was met with disdain.

Hanging off every word of the director is a sound trading method--NOT.
Clearly those who are blind to the obvious bias ---cant see!


----------



## noirua (24 January 2016)

What a ghastly performance for this gold stock as everything went wrong from a temporarily withdrawn mining licence to having to divert a river. Managed to get heavy loans in position and now back producing gold again. Needs a clever eye to see where the company is heading for now but just maybe the mining gods are back on its side again.


----------



## noirua (11 August 2017)

http:www.red5limited.com
Interesting now to see if the purchase of two gold enterprises helps Red5 back from its downfall.

*ASX-listed gold producer with a new focus on Western Australia’s Eastern Goldfields*
*
Proposed acquisition of Darlot Gold Mine and King of the Hills Gold Project will give Red 5 a commanding 25,700ha footprint in the highly-endowed Leonora-Leinster gold district, one of Australia’s most active gold provinces, a Mineral Resource inventory totalling 626,000oz, immediate production and cash-flow, and outstanding exploration and growth potential.
Siana Gold Project in the Philippines currently on care-and-maintenance pending an improvement in operating conditions in the Philippines.
Siana Project retains significant inherent value, including a substantial gold inventory, a modern 1.1Mtpa treatment facility, an open pit mine and a part-developed underground mine



*


----------



## noirua (1 February 2018)

Darlot and King of the Hills are probably only the start of the new moves by the once mid-cap gold miner Red5. Still needs a lift in the gold price to near US$1800 an oz to see any speedy recovery. That could happen if gold backed crypto-currency becomes a great hit.


----------



## noirua (7 February 2018)

RED are still surprisingly low in price with the Darlot Gold mine having immediate production and cash flow. Once all three mines are producing confidence should return sharply.


----------



## greggles (14 March 2018)

Small setback yesterday for RED after a solid eight month recovery. Here's a summary of their financial results for the Half Year ended 31 December 2017:

• Sales revenue of A$37.5m
• Net cash flow from operating activities of A$8.2m
• A$21.8m in cash and in metal accounts
• Darlot gold production of 17,777oz and gold sales of 16,150oz since acquisition in October 2017
• Darlot all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of A$1,291 per ounce
• Net loss of the consolidated entity before income tax was A$1.6m, inclusive of a net profit before income tax from Darlot operations of A$2.8m


----------



## noirua (28 May 2018)

More good news for Red5 and once again the share price drifts backwards.
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/red.asx-6A885391/

This chart link shows how the share price was once $2.25 so much disaster must have occurred, oh yes. In the Phillipines a containing wall started collapsing and they had to divert a river. The mine was suspended and cash ran out. Loans were obtained and a placing - did not help that much.
https://stocknessmonster.com/charts/red.asx/

The present market cap is asking a bit around $85 million. RED may just not quite be getting there at the moment. Chi-x at 6.7c and ASX at 6.9c.


----------



## greggles (5 June 2018)

noirua said:


> More good news for Red5 and once again the share price drifts backwards.




RED has been seeing some good gains in the last few days and is looking pretty bullish at the moment.


----------



## noirua (10 June 2018)

Another recovery gold stock in play after the disasters in the past. Looks to be getting it back together with new mines and tenement drilling.  Should push on slowly this year as RED attempts to get back to the last distant placing price of 10c - banking on it managing that quite shortly.


----------



## greggles (26 June 2018)

greggles said:


> RED has been seeing some good gains in the last few days and is looking pretty bullish at the moment.




The share price gains continue for RED. Up another 4.88% to 8.6c today.

On 19 June the company upgraded its Mineral Resource estimate for the key Oval mining area, part of the Centenary underground workings at the Darlot Gold Mine in WA. The updated Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource for the Oval deposit comprises 391,200 tonnes grading 9.32g/t Au for 117,200 ounces of contained gold, representing a 79% increase in contained gold, over the previous Resource estimate delivered in December 2017. 

The previous day RED announced that it is selling its royalty entitlement from the Galaxy Resources owned Mt Cattlin mine in Western Australia to Canadian royalty company, Lithium Royalty Corporation, for $11 million. At the end of March they had almost $17 million in cash so this will take them to around $28 million in cash and will put them in a position to self fund any short to medium term growth without having to raise capital.


----------



## noirua (15 July 2018)

RED are still struggling to get it all together. Their first gold mine in Philippines was a disaster and they needed to borrow a great deal of cash to divert a river and rebuild the leaking dumps. Took a long time  to get their mining license back - all a bit of a disaster.

Anyway, the shares were once around $2 and they sank to just 4c. Back around 8c the shares look quite promising for the forever patient.


----------



## noirua (15 July 2018)

I consider the investment as neutral due to borrowings, in the short term. If you want to hold up to 3 years or more they are a  bullish investment for the patient investor. For a trader it is best to watch the trends and gold price and realise you may have to take losses if trading in the shares goes to sleep.


----------



## noirua (2 September 2018)

noirua said:


> I consider the investment as neutral due to borrowings, in the short term. If you want to hold up to 3 years or more they are a bullish investment for the patient investor. For a trader it is best to watch the trends and gold price and realise you may have to take losses if trading in the shares goes to sleep.




RED5 was once the darling of the Aussie gold sector and trading around $2.00. Disaster in the Philippines with their one and only mine led to chunks of cash being borrowed on delays, mine suspension due to collapses and a river diverted and then still not getting mining underway. Good grief!

Now picked up two promising, well quite promising, areas in Australia but mining in the Philippines is suspended once again.  The placing last year was at 10c and successful but RED5 is not yet getting enough traction. At around 6.3c this is a frustrating gold share that should be doing better.
http://red5limited.com

Attempting to takeover bullseye Mining Limited with an extended offer until 2nd October.


----------



## noirua (21 September 2018)

King of the Hills: https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180921/pdf/43yj15sptp3yhf.pdf

The results look very good but as usual it's best to do further research. So often I see what looks like great results and nothing much happens to the share price. This area is quite difficult to understand and maps are not that clear and results from previous diamond drilling vary a great deal.


----------



## Buckfont (30 January 2019)

Red 5 has had a good run over the past few months. 
Early results from 30,000m drill program strengthen bulk mining potential at King of the Hills tenement in WA.

The results strengthen
the emerging bulk mining potential at KOTH, confirming the Company’s
exploration model for the granodiorite contact zone which is based on a large network of narrow
high-grade veins as well as broader zones of stockwork mineralisation which collectively can be bulked out into broad mineralised zones. 

About time this stock started to get ahead after 8+ years of nightmares.


----------



## noirua (30 January 2019)

Latest drilling results at King of the Hills is moving to becoming a future mine. Gold widths are very good at over 100 metres though grades could be better. Some similar results from gold mines in Egypt, Centamin Limited for instance, had similar grades but proved to be a good mining venture.


----------



## Buckfont (30 January 2019)

Yikes up 14.29% already today.


----------



## noirua (3 February 2019)

*Encouraging assay results bode well for bulk mining potential at Red 5’s King of the Hills mine*
30 January 2019
https://smallcaps.com.au/encouragin...ining-potential-red-5-king-of-the-hills-mine/

The 30,000m drill program, undertaken along the Eastern Margin Contact Zone of the mine, returned wide zones of gold mineralisation, including an exceptional intercept of 312m grading 2.01 grams per tonne gold.
Other significant new composite intercepts within the current 1.88-million-ounce resource envelope were 313.7m at 1.24g/t gold, including 15.4m at 13.3g/t gold from 268m; and 222m at 1.28g/t gold, including 9.2m at 7.43g/t gold from 50.1m.


----------



## noirua (3 February 2019)

*Red 5’s updated resource estimate at King of the Hills gold project underpins bulk mining options*
4 December 2018
https://smallcaps.com.au/red-5-upda...ing-of-the-hills-gold-project-mining-options/

The indicated and inferred resource is an update on historical records and comprises 28.7 million tonnes grading 2.0 grams per tonne gold for an estimated 1.88 million ounces of contained gold at a 1.0g/t gold cut-off grade, which could be reduced if a large open pit is determined to be economic.

Red 5 said the zone is believed to bulk out to significant widths, creating the potential for open pit or large-scale bulk underground stoping methods.


----------



## noirua (1 June 2019)

Red5 are still struggling to get back to the glory days around $2.00. Low point was 4c and now at a heady 14c in line with several forecasts. Should continue to recover with new mines in play. Slow going and confident ones amongst us are looking for 20c - 25c by year end.

Left behind by the likes of Ramelius RMS that also hit 4c but rebounded to over 80c. Tough target for Red5.


----------



## greggles (21 June 2019)

RED is another company whose share price has capitalised on the recent rally in the gold price.

After breaking through resistance at 14c early this month RED has continued to climb to be currently trading at 20c today.

As far as I am aware RED is basically unhedged and with an AISC for the current quarter of around A$1,300 – A$1,450 per ounce the recent rally in the gold price is making their gold mining operations even more profitable.


----------



## Sean K (21 June 2019)

Any idea on the spike? Only news is Regal selling down. Perhaps it's just the gold price in AUD terms? Maybe some more good results from Darlot or Koth. Pretty high market cap for an 'explorer'.


----------



## greggles (21 June 2019)

kennas said:


> Any idea on the spike? Only news is Regal selling down. Perhaps it's just the gold price in AUD terms? Maybe some more good results from Darlot or Koth. Pretty high market cap for an 'explorer'.




With no news out recently except for yesterday's *Change in substantial holding* notice it's definitely the AUD gold price. 

RED are expected to produce 27,000 - 31,000 ounces at an AISC of A$1,300 - A$1,450 per ounce in the current quarter, so as the AUD gold price continues to rally the profitability of their gold mining operations continue to improve.

Also, the Mineral Resource estimate for the King of their Hills Gold Project was recently increased to 3.11 million ounces of contained gold with 76% of the ounces now classified as 'Indicated'. See announcement dated 20 May.


----------



## noirua (4 July 2019)

Outstanding Underground Drilling Results
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190704/pdf/446ckzy02ffxk6.pdf


----------



## just_jay (5 July 2019)

ah. that explains the 15% rise in 2 days.


----------



## noirua (14 July 2019)

noirua said:


> Red5 are still struggling to get back to the glory days around $2.00. Low point was 4c and now at a heady 14c in line with several forecasts. Should continue to recover with new mines in play. Slow going and confident ones amongst us are looking for 20c - 25c by year end.
> 
> Left behind by the likes of Ramelius RMS that also hit 4c but rebounded to over 80c. Tough target for Red5.




Already testing the 25c level and up 520% from the low point a few years back.


----------



## noirua (5 August 2019)

Red5 is now gaining further traction and closed Friday at 29c.  I looked for 20c - 25c by year end and now it looks as if that target should be raised further to 40c - 50c. This is a speculative high risk sector so only invest with that firmly in mind. I have lost a lot of shirts though my wardrobe is still full.


----------



## noirua (11 August 2019)

Unbelievable as Red5 travels on to close the week at 34c.  When I added more at 4.5c awhile back it turns out I was far too tentative. When everyone appears negative and ordering a hearse it's difficult to back the company with one gold asset, at the time, that requires a river to be redirected and a tailings dump to be massively repaired and borrowing large sums from uncertain banks.


----------



## qldfrog (11 August 2019)

And imho, it might mean that unless you cash your gains, your instinct could be proving right anytime....


----------



## Zaxon (16 August 2019)

RED has held up amazingly well, especially given the recent drop in the market.  I'm hoping it will retain this strength for a little while yet.


----------



## noirua (18 August 2019)

Red5 is starting to look fully priced unless gold starts moving again to challenge the $1,600 level. The Aussie might weaken further though I expect the US to reduce rates down to 1.5% fairly quickly.  Profits on my last purchase at 650% was to tempting to miss out on. The rest bought and considerably higher prices so will hold on to them.


----------



## debtfree (1 January 2020)

2020 Yearly Competition Pick .... just by viewing Monthly Charts. *(This is my Top Pick)*
Another pick that I didn't read up on , never mind I'll carry on with my chart view.

Price is back to the same level it finished Aug 19 so those 3 red bars in between don't look too bad. 
Maybe price is ready to explode from here, yes I'll probably need Gold to breakout this year to push it along and if it does, this could be a little gem. Time will tell.


----------



## qldfrog (2 January 2020)

I once followed RED, 


debtfree said:


> 2020 Yearly Competition Pick .... just by viewing Monthly Charts. *(This is my Top Pick)*
> Another pick that I didn't read up on , never mind I'll carry on with my chart view.
> 
> Price is back to the same level it finished Aug 19 so those 3 red bars in between don't look too bad.
> ...



at the time, they were mining in one of the worst place in the philippine, in the middle of an islamist uprising
Never a good situation for a single mine company..a much ramp up nothing at the time.
lost a bit
Is it still the case?? how many mine, where  would be my question, once burnt....


----------



## debtfree (2 January 2020)

@qldfrog 
I must admit I was running late for my picks and didn't research them at all, I looked at the charts and thought that will do for a bit of value. 
With the number of entries in the Comp and a lot of stocks outside the XAO, I think some results will surprise a few this year.
I did noticed this on their website so hopefully the Australian side of things might carry it along to the heights that I dream of. 

An Australian gold producer with a strong growth outlook in Western Australia’s Eastern Goldfields
Red 5 Limited (ASX: RED) is an Australian gold producer that operates the Darlot and King of the Hills (KOTH) gold mines in the Eastern Goldfields region of Western Australia.
Since acquiring these two projects in October 2017, the Company has successfully ramped-up gold production to an annualised run-rate of +100,000oz/year, and is now conducting aggressive exploration programs to increase its Resource and Reserve base.
In 2018, Red 5 identified a potential bulk mining opportunity at KOTH, with an initial ‘proof-of-concept’ bulk mining Mineral Resource of 1.88Moz of contained gold. A strategic review of bulk mining options is now underway.


----------



## qldfrog (2 January 2020)

debtfree said:


> @qldfrog
> I must admit I was running late for my picks and didn't research them at all, I looked at the charts and thought that will do for a bit of value.
> With the number of entries in the Comp and a lot of stocks outside the XAO, I think some results will surprise a few this year.
> I did noticed this on their website so hopefully the Australian side of things might carry it along to the heights that I dream of.
> ...



from red website:
"
In the Philippines, the Red 5 group holds interests in the Siana and Mapawa gold projects, both located in the Surigao del Norte region on the island of Mindanao, which is a highly prospective and established mining province.
The Siana Gold Project is located within the Siana Mineral Production Sharing Agreement (MPSA).
Mining and processing activities at Siana were suspended in April 2017 pending an improvement in operating conditions in the Philippines."
so for the last nearly 3years: what was their only mine has been burning cash, and they are probably unable to find a buyer...reading behind the lines;
Sure the SP might double, whatever but I would keep a keen eye on my cutlery and silver forks if i was inviting the board for dinner...my 2c
I must admit that I am even scared of Newcrest..mining a volcano is a bit like trying to extract the copper from an active mine shell.......so this is a conservative view
Anyway, I hope some people can leverage my history and keep this as part of their Valuation figures


----------



## noirua (31 March 2020)

After the unexpected 18c cash raise RED shares tanked. Sometimes worthwhile considering buying after a placing. The gold price should rise in theory after the selling abates from gold being the only item to sell to cover forward positions in shares, mainly in the states.
With the Aussie at such a low level the gold price is at an all-time high point in AUDs, I believe.


----------



## noirua (13 April 2020)

Red5 website: http://red5limited.com/


Cash flow from Darlot operations is currently funding Growth and Exploration programs.

King of the Hills Open Pit Ore Reserve of ~1.5Moz, with a Pre-Feasibility Study completed for a 4Mtpa on-site Processing Plant

Red 5’s valuable Siana asset in the Philippines (operations currently suspended) has all mine and regulatory permits in place to restart production – preferred plan and options are being evaluated
[ That's it really and the placing at 18c and the shares having struggled back to 22c. With gold pressing the US$1,700 level RED should move back on the recovery trail. Probably went ahead too quickly from 4c to 36c but should recover to the 28c - 32c range fast enough.]


----------



## noirua (19 May 2020)

A sudden recovery of about 45% as the market realises RED has been sold down of late. 
Chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=ASX^RED&p=5&t=1


----------



## Trav. (10 June 2020)

Small observation for the members that like to look at the charts.

RED gapped up on the 18/5 and then retraced back to close gap on the 4/6






So $0.265 is the support level now and we will need to wait and see if there is a period of consolidation now.


----------



## hja (10 June 2020)

Trav. said:


> Small observation for the members that like to look at the charts.
> 
> RED gapped up on the 18/5 and then retraced back to close gap on the 4/6
> 
> ...



A bit of overhead resistance at 28.5c from that high volume down bar on 25/5. The bars on 4/6 and 5/6 look like accumulation and absorption.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 June 2020)

Trav. said:


> So $0.265 is the support level now and we will need to wait and see if there is a period of consolidation now.



Nup. Gapped down. Crusher failure. Consolidating at a lower level?

Red 5 Managing Director, Mark Williams, said the transitional production strategy for the Darlot Mining Hub has mapped out a clear direction for the Company over the next 18-24 months as it moves towards the proposed start of construction of the new stand-alone bulk mining and processing operation at King of the Hills.  







> “The decision to commence open pit mining at Great Western and scale down underground mining at KOTH during the second half of 2020 is consistent with our previously articulated growth vision" (major new production hub at KOTH and developing an expanded long-life mining and processing hub at Darlot.) “While we are disappointed that Darlot *production has again been impacted* in the short term due to the issues outlined in this release, we are confident that the measures implemented will stabilise production and improve predictability to put us on track to achieve our FY21 forecast.


----------



## peter2 (6 July 2020)

Bought some RED today as price was sold off after news of their most recent production loss. I'm hoping that this latest incident was due to an unforeseeable mechanical failure and not a symptom of poor maintenance procedures (mgmt problem). If RED can meet their FY21 forecast then the price should go back to near where it was. It would also help if the gold price continues higher.


----------



## qldfrog (6 July 2020)

peter2 said:


> Bought some RED today as price was sold off after news of their most recent production loss. I'm hoping that this latest incident was due to an unforeseeable mechanical failure and not a symptom of poor maintenance procedures (mgmt problem). If RED can meet their FY21 forecast then the price should go back to near where it was. It would also help if the gold price continues higher.
> 
> View attachment 105659



Peter,
Did you follow the Philippine saga at the time? 
You are usually pretty careful in your entries, if you investigates the issues I raised in january, see above, it could act as a cold shower.
I lost a bit of money trusting these guys a couple of years ago .Look as well where their assets are vs hot rebellion zones in the Philippines.There is a war for lack of other terms going on there...
But I am now a system guy and I will buy if a system says buy so i understand that,


----------



## peter2 (7 July 2020)

Thanks for the note.

The Siana operation (Philippines) was suspended in April 2017. Since then, RED's local subsidiary has been doing basic care and maintenance while waiting for the political situation to resolve (ie. change of Gov't). 

RED is now operating gold mines and drilling for gold in WA.


----------



## debtfree (7 July 2020)

As Peter2 said "It would also help if the gold price continues higher."

Meantioned on Stockhead 26th June
*
Red 5 (ASX:RED) -40%*

Investors do not seem especially keen about Red 5’s planned Darlot Mining Hub after the company said it would produce between 90,000 and 98,000oz of gold at an average all-in sustaining cost of between $1,830 and $2,030 per ounce.


----------



## peter2 (21 May 2021)

*RED* is trying to build itself into a mid-tier gold producer in 2022. Progress is being delayed as it's experiencing a shortage in hiring enough skilled labour.  This lack of labour has lowered production at its Darlot Gold mine. Share price hammered. This shortage will also hinder the startup of their King of The Hills gold mine. 

This won't be the first production cut due to labour shortage we'll read about in the mining industry. Miners will have to start paying more to attract skilled labour and keep them. This is the start of a serious problem for the mining industry and in turn it's going to have a negative impact on share prices.


----------



## qldfrog (22 May 2021)

peter2 said:


> *RED* is trying to build itself into a mid-tier gold producer in 2022. Progress is being delayed as it's experiencing a shortage in hiring enough skilled labour.  This lack of labour has lowered production at its Darlot Gold mine. Share price hammered. This shortage will also hinder the startup of their King of The Hills gold mine.
> 
> This won't be the first production cut due to labour shortage we'll read about in the mining industry. Miners will have to start paying more to attract skilled labour and keep them. This is the start of a serious problem for the mining industry and in turn it's going to have a negative impact on share prices.



Usual mining cycle greed and job marketplace:  mining specialists will  have to make up for the last 5 y driving Uber in their Toyota corollas.
Will not comment on RED.been burnt before, would not touch it with a lonnnng pole


----------



## Sean K (12 August 2021)

These guys seem to have quite a bit of gold under the old KOTH mine waiting to be picked up. Some good grades down there. Ramping themselves as one of the top 10 largest reserves in the country. Chart looks like they've hit a bottom at 16c to me. Now they've gotten rid of the Phillipines baggage, of interest.


----------



## bsnews (12 August 2021)

The problem I see is that every 2 years or so they do a capital raise and add a few miliions shares.


----------



## Sean K (12 August 2021)

bsnews said:


> The problem I see is that every 2 years or so they do a capital raise and add a few miliions shares.




They will need some more money to finish their mill off. Capex to come is $226m and they have about $50m in the bank. So, that will have to come from somewhere.

Last presentation has the details.


----------



## Telamelo (7 October 2021)

kennas said:


> They will need some more money to finish their mill off. Capex to come is $226m and they have about $50m in the bank. So, that will have to come from somewhere.
> 
> Last presentation has the details.



Red 5 announces "King of the Hills" construction powers ahead with first Gold pour expected by early June quarter 2022!

Red 5 sp taken off as @ 0.255c +13.33% on big volume/momentum 

DYOR as always

Cheers tela


----------



## qldfrog (7 October 2021)

Telamelo said:


> Red 5 announces "King of the Hills" construction powers ahead with first Gold pour expected by early June quarter 2022!
> 
> Red 5 sp taken off as @ 0.255c +13.33% on big volume/momentum
> 
> ...



Am invested twice with systematic trading..🥴.but got burnt by this dog in the past..trade yes..short term but it is a pig with lipstick based on past experience...


----------



## Tyre Kicker (7 October 2021)

Would probably say that KOTH is a game changer now though Frog.

The bottom has been 15/16c recently and in the past.

For those who have entered when at that level, the future looks pretty good, imo.


----------



## qldfrog (7 October 2021)

Tyre Kicker said:


> Would probably say that KOTH is a game changer now though Frog.
> 
> The bottom has been 15/16c recently and in the past.
> 
> For those who have entered when at that level, the future looks pretty good, imo.



as long as mgt is same, do not expect miracle..they were having a mine in a Muslim insurgency area when I started looking at them..same on other gold stock in burkina faso or Niger/Mali..seriously


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## qldfrog (7 October 2021)

Tyre Kicker said:


> Would probably say that KOTH is a game changer now though Frog.
> 
> The bottom has been 15/16c recently and in the past.
> 
> For those who have entered when at that level, the future looks pretty good, imo.



but did great today..how long before SPP? cynical? maybe...


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## Telamelo (7 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> but did great today..how long before SPP? cynical? maybe...



RED are fully funded frog plus they've just sold Siana gold project for $55M  (refer 21/09 announcement)









						RED 5 Ltd (ASX:RED) Share Price - Market Index
					

Today’s RED share price, stock chart and announcements. View dividend history, insider trades and ASX analyst consensus.




					www.marketindex.com.au
				












						Red 5 powers ahead with construction ramp-up at King of the Hills Gold Project
					

Red 5 Ltd (ASX:RED) has made further headway at its cornerstone King of the Hills (KOTH) project, where construction is underway on one of...



					www.proactiveinvestors.com.au


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## Telamelo (8 October 2021)

*Annual report due/scheduled on 13/10/21 with their quarterly update a week later on 21/10/21 which am looking forward too.*


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## qldfrog (8 October 2021)

Telamelo said:


> RED are fully funded frog plus they've just sold Siana gold project for $55M  (refer 21/09 announcement)
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This is rarely an issue for greed😊
As i own, i hope you are right, it also takes some times to prepare and launch a capital rise so hopefully I will be out before with a neat profit


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## Telamelo (8 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> This is rarely an issue for greed😊
> As i own, i hope you are right, it also takes some times to prepare and launch a capital rise so hopefully I will be out before with a neat profit



Fully funded so no more capital raising necessary as was successfully completed back in March '21. 

RED also receiving $55M cash injection from divesting Siana gold project as announced 2 weeks ago.









						Red 5 (ASX:RED) raises $175 million of debt finance
					

17 Mar 2021 - Red 5 (ASX:RED) has received commitments for $175 million in project finance facilities to fund the development of its 2.4 million ounces, 16-year Life-Of-Mine King of the Hills Project in Western Australia.




					www.finnewsnetwork.com.au


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## Telamelo (8 October 2021)

*Red 5 Ltd forms bullish "Head and Shoulders Bottom" chart pattern*
_Oct 07, 2021_

Trading Central has detected a "Head and Shoulders Bottom" chart pattern formed on Red 5 Ltd (RED:ASX).

This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of 0.265c to the range of 0.30c-0.32c

*courtesy of Bell Direct


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## Telamelo (9 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> This is rarely an issue for greed😊
> As i own, i hope you are right, it also takes some times to prepare and launch a capital rise so hopefully I will be out before with a neat profit



Watch from 20:45 onwards as Jason covers analysis about Red 5


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## Telamelo (12 October 2021)

12/10/21 Grade control drilling commences at King of the Hills

*RED* is pleased to advise that it continues to make significant progress with the construction and development of its 2.4Moz, 16-year life-of-mine King of the Hills (KOTH) Gold Project in Western Australia.

The KOTH Project is progressing on schedule for first gold in the June Quarter 2022 and remains within budget.

DYOR as always..

Cheers tela


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## Telamelo (14 October 2021)

Telamelo said:


> Watch from 20:45 onwards as Jason covers analysis about Red 5




Gold up about +2% overnight  what a great call by Jason McIntosh from "Motion Trader" on *RED* last week.


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## The Cruising Investor (29 December 2021)

Bought this stock last year....hoping for gold to shine. No debt, gold producer and dividend paying .... a good trifector


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## investtrader (31 December 2021)

A bet on Gold for 2022. Strong trend last 6 months. Lot of resistance around 0.36 cents but if gold price goes up, so does this. A pick for 2022 comp.


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## craigj (31 December 2021)

My pick for comp as the resource is large and 16year life of mine   Great looking chart for breakout above 30c


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## Sean K (14 February 2022)

RED breakout, due to a POG jump assist.


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## Sean K (22 February 2022)

RED5 doing exactly what you would like after breaking up out of that resistance level. Consolidating above very nicely on top of the new support. Thought it might have taken off a bit more with POG going on a larger comparative run.


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## signalFollower (23 February 2022)

So i took the plunge into what is now my 2nd largest portfolio position with RED today

I came across RED as a comparison stock with all my reading on Gold and Mine stages of development, offtake agreements etc etc and eventually production with respects to researching my other AAU holding

RED having double the projected number of Gold ounces p.a. than Antrilles, and also just recenlty embarking on the first mine production as I understand, is a bit of a straddle position for me with respects to the mine development cycle, so I'm riding both ends of the cycle with the two holdings.

Gold demand (and Silver for that matter) looking forward is quite encouraging too.

if anyone's interested here is a 2022 Gold price forecast article I found on the World Gold Council website, I do recommend reading the full article / analyst detail report


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## stanwell (23 February 2022)

I had a few posts about RED at my Twitter in the past couple of months. 

I don't know FA so cannot comment on this aspect. What attracts me initially is its price action. It seems to me that the structure has been manipulated with clear rhythm. The operator is quite patient, maybe he (they) is waiting for some sort of announcement.


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## Greynomad99 (24 February 2022)

I've been watching RED for a while but it's chart is a bit of a mess I can't quite get my head around. The high volatility over the past 3 years is my biggest worry. Elliott Wave says price could be on Wave 5 - which is good (if it is). EW can be problematic with miners. Price is in a falling price channel but approaching the top boundary which might turn price down as it has before. If it breaks higher then significantly higher prices would be expected. I have a current target of $0.35 but haven't bought in for aforementioned concerns. Probably not a good time to buy anything at the moment, but with the drums of war beating in Ukraine if anything is going to move up - I'd expect it to be gold. However, US down again overnight, our futures suggesting a troubling day ahead and gold flat overnight - I think I just keep sitting on my hands for now.


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## Sean K (24 February 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> I've been watching RED for a while but it's chart is a bit of a mess I can't quite get my head around. The high volatility over the past 3 years is my biggest worry. Elliott Wave says price could be on Wave 5 - which is good (if it is). EW can be problematic with miners. Price is in a falling price channel but approaching the top boundary which might turn price down as it has before. If it breaks higher then significantly higher prices would be expected. I have a current target of $0.35 but haven't bought in for aforementioned concerns. Probably not a good time to buy anything at the moment, but with the drums of war beating in Ukraine if anything is going to move up - I'd expect it to be gold. However, US down again overnight, our futures suggesting a troubling day ahead and gold flat overnight - I think I just keep sitting on my hands for now.
> 
> View attachment 138014



Seven years is a long period to do TA on an spec explorer to producer isn’t it GN? Lots of movement on expectation, success, failure, surprises, uncertainty, gold price, investments, divestments. It’s never had a chance to operate on a fundamentally consistent mode.

Agree about sitting on hands right now. I think TA mostly gets thrown out the window during times of hyper fear and volatility.


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## qldfrog (24 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> Seven years is a long period to do TA on an spec explorer to producer isn’t it GN? Lots of movement on expectation, success, failure, surprises, uncertainty, gold price, investments, divestments. It’s never had a chance to operate on a fundamentally consistent mode.
> 
> Agree about sitting on hands right now. I think TA mostly gets thrown out the window during times of hyper fear and volatility.



And i had RED shares was it 10y ago, when its key assets were in a Philippines jihad insurrection.
While i have been in and out based on systems,RED for me is the perfect .but not alone example of shareholders milking factory, perpetual junior, perpetual capital raising,directors bonus and wonderful Releases


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## signalFollower (24 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> And i had RED shares was it 10y ago, when its key assets were in a Philippines jihad insurrection.
> While i have been in and out based on systems,RED for me is the perfect .but not alone example of shareholders milking factory, perpetual junior, perpetual capital raising,directors bonus and wonderful Releases



By my observatinos the price action has done what is expected during the resource JORC and then period between that and the mine development and eventual operations commencing.

It has a 6 year mine life (Open pit) at KOTH and beyond that Underground mine design, they'll be starting to sell their gold right at the perfect time as a Gold bull run continues / takes off due to geopolitical instability and troublesome international monetary policy and inflation.

Just my opinions, on RED and other mine developers with a timeframe that will see them stand up mining during appreciating gold prices, eg AAU another of my holdings


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## Greynomad99 (24 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> Seven years is a long period to do TA on an spec explorer to producer isn’t it GN? Lots of movement on expectation, success, failure, surprises, uncertainty, gold price, investments, divestments. It’s never had a chance to operate on a fundamentally consistent mode.
> 
> Agree about sitting on hands right now. I think TA mostly gets thrown out the window during times of hyper fear and volatility.



Yes, spec explorers and miners in general can be tough to predict - but not impossible as all those movements you refer to get reflected in chart movements and build up a picture (even if it is a bit muddy).


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## signalFollower (27 March 2022)

Greynomad99 said:


> Yes, spec explorers and miners in general can be tough to predict - but not impossible as all those movements you refer to get reflected in chart movements and build up a picture (even if it is a bit muddy).



a pretty credible chartist / TA mentioned RED in the context of approaching fully priced on NPV, they're from ThinkMarkets


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## Sean K (27 March 2022)

signalFollower said:


> a pretty credible chartist / TA mentioned RED in the context of approaching fully priced on NPV, they're from ThinkMarkets




Who is the credible TA providing FA?


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## signalFollower (27 March 2022)

above 38c - 39c it was fully priced, a few billion shares on issue right ?


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## Greynomad99 (27 March 2022)

My post here of a month ago had a target of $0.35 and I said if price broke up out of the price channel then significantly higher prices were possible. Well it has broken up out of the channel and made a target of $0.58 - $0.63. I'm no expert on Wyckoff patterns but that theory seems to suggest about $0.53 as a target. My comments about the difficulty of charting stocks like this stand but I'll be academically interested to see where price tops out, but any of these would be welcome if you were a holder (I'm not).


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## signalFollower (1 July 2022)

I guess everyone knows about the number of short positions held with RED ?  37.5m shares

30th June had an additional 700,000 shares short sold

not a huge % of Shares on Issue, but still 37.5M shares would take a few trading weeks to trickle back into the markets as Buys without impacting share price.

It they all go at once on the same day, that's a different story

the irony is that the AUD price of Gold is going up and not far off all time highs, so to my thinking that makes all gold producers that are actually selling in USD get more margin for their gold due to the AUD being below 70c USD

kind of interesting


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## peter2 (30 July 2022)

King of The Hills is now operational and has delivered it's first gold pour. This should improve the outlook for RED. 
The share price has stopped falling. A rising gold price would provide additional support. 

Selected for the Aug 22 comp as price looks likely to bounce higher.


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## rcw1 (31 July 2022)

peter2 said:


> King of The Hills is now operational and has delivered it's first gold pour. This should improve the outlook for RED.
> The share price has stopped falling. A rising gold price would provide additional support.
> 
> Selected for the Aug 22 comp as price looks likely to bounce higher.



Good morning peter2
Use to trade Red a few years ago.  Dropped it after hearing some barking ....   Might have a peak in light of King of the Hills development. Thanks for that. 

Kind regards
rcw1


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## peter2 (2 August 2022)

Continued talk about consolidation of the gold projects in the Leonora region (WA). 
*CMM* (+*DCN*) + *SBM* + *RED*


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## Sean K (2 August 2022)

peter2 said:


> Continued talk about consolidation of the gold projects in the Leonora region (WA).
> *CMM* (+*DCN*) + *SBM* + *RED*




I watched GMD, SBM and REDs presentations the last two days at DD streamed and it seems a logical consolidation but not sure who should be running it. SBM have the biggest MC. Combined would be worth about $2b.


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## Captain_Chaza (2 August 2022)

How did they perform in the charts afterwards?
or 
Was nobody there?


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## Sean K (2 August 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> How did they perform in the charts afterwards?
> or
> Was nobody there?
> View attachment 144875




There hasn’t been any great deal of movement in any company after their presentations. Watched just about all of them with the market open. Might have to actually go next year, the bar side entertainment is back apparently.


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## peter2 (29 August 2022)

Selecting *RED* again for the Sept monthly comp. Price started to go up in Aug but it drifted down to where it started. Gold seems like it been in the doldrums forever. It's rapidly turning into an insignificant commodity in my eyes, only good as a door stopper.


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## peter2 (1 September 2022)

FY results out. 






No guidance until KOTH reaches stable production (early 2023).


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## peter2 (7 September 2022)

*RED 5* reminding everyone that they've a lot of gold in the ground with their 250 page announcement. 
Now that they've spent lots of time on the resource definition, I hope they knuckle down to dig it out and sell it. 
Preferably before the EOM.


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## qldfrog (7 September 2022)

peter2 said:


> *RED 5* reminding everyone that they've a lot of gold in the ground with their 250 page announcement.
> Now that they've spent lots of time on the resource definition, I hope they knuckle down to dig it out and sell it.
> Preferably before the EOM.



If you go back a good 10y or so, RED was my gold play, lost a bucket...; If the management has changed, all good, if the same  clan in charge, Run Peter Run...
Just a giant money pit imho..for you..not them..be warned, look at the history in your research


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## peter2 (7 September 2022)

The Siana Gold Project (Phillipines) is in the rear view mirror. I'm looking forwards and I've a low priced start.


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## Telamelo (16 September 2022)

Gold hammered overnight dropping another -1.94%  .. down, down, down prices are down!


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## qldfrog (17 September 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Gold hammered overnight dropping another -1.94%  .. down, down, down prices are down!



Better last night with US market carrying on the fall


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## peter2 (27 September 2022)

Who posted that *RED* couldn't go any lower. Sack him. Gold should be removed from the precious metal category soon if it continues lower. 

*RED* is at new yearly lows, just the right surprise selection for the monthly comp. 

On a more serious note if gold and the AUD goes much lower it'll be unprofitable for many gold miners. This should instigate merger discussions to reduce overall production costs. *RED* is in a location near other gold producers, ripe for consolidation.


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## Captain_Chaza (27 September 2022)




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## peter2 (2 October 2022)

Details of the capital raise, $60M + $6M? at 0.16/share.  This will see the price go lower to 0.16 soon after it resumes trading. 

Majority of capital raised ($40M) will go for working capital. That's not a good enough reason. 
Ongoing discussions with SBM regarding potential operational synergies (sounds like cap raise is to get a higher offer price).


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## qldfrog (2 October 2022)

peter2 said:


> Details of the capital raise, $60M + $6M? at 0.16/share.  This will see the price go lower to 0.16 soon after it resumes trading.
> 
> Majority of capital raised ($40M) will go for working capital. That's not a good enough reason.
> Ongoing discussions with SBM regarding potential operational synergies (sounds like cap raise is to get a higher offer price).



Yeap same RED, same management, i believe i have posted enough warnings here.unless  trading, should be in your black list.
Might even be a good short term buy at 16c now...


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## Sean K (10 October 2022)

peter2 said:


> Details of the capital raise, $60M + $6M? at 0.16/share.  This will see the price go lower to 0.16 soon after it resumes trading.
> 
> Majority of capital raised ($40M) will go for working capital. That's not a good enough reason.
> Ongoing discussions with SBM regarding potential operational synergies (sounds like cap raise is to get a higher offer price).




That working capital cost of a total 60m sends alarm bells to me too. Not sure what their angle is with SBM. Are they setting themselves up for a sale, or just to process the ore? 








qldfrog said:


> Yeap same RED, same management, i believe i have posted enough warnings here.unless  trading, should be in your black list.
> Might even be a good short term buy at 16c now...




EV down to $550m ish. EV to Reserves looks pretty good comparatively, but geesh, it's in the toilet. My contrarian hat wants to look at it more seriously but if it's on a frog blacklist I better steer clear.


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## qldfrog (10 October 2022)

Sean K said:


> That working capital cost of a total 60m sends alarm bells to me too. Not sure what their angle is with SBM. Are they setting themselves up for a sale, or just to process the ore?
> 
> View attachment 147862
> 
> ...



Do not put too much value in my judgement, i am only really good at being wrong..i went market long on friday .....


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## frugal.rock (21 December 2022)

RED turning green.


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## Sean K (22 December 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> RED turning green.
> 
> View attachment 150762




That looks to be one fine BO.


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## Sean K (23 December 2022)

Sean K said:


> That looks to be one fine BO.




It looked like a fine BO @frugal.rock but it caught a snag with US tanking and POG coming off. Bad timing.

Any bets being taken that this will be taken over by new GMD/DCN/SBM vehicle?


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## frugal.rock (23 December 2022)

Just part of the knee jerk reaction from BoJ carry trade policy widening, although there's a decent ranging (forming crescendo)  trench from mid October.
I'm not a gold bug, unless it's physically in my hand. Only then do I admire the lustre. 🧐


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## peter2 (24 December 2022)

Selected for the 2023 CY comp.  
*RED* has started producing gold at it's KOTH mine. I'm hoping the 2023 will be a huge year for gold (>US$2000/oz). The goldfields in WA around Leonora are ripe for corporate consolidation. SBM and GMD have started discussions. There'll be others interested at the right price.


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## frugal.rock (5 January 2023)

RED just needs a catalyst and it's off to the races, imoo.


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