# Melbourne Cup 2012



## Logique (3 November 2012)

Appreciate if someone could tip the 2012 Cup winner for me please.


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## Ijustnewit (3 November 2012)

*Re: Melbourne Cup 2011*

I'm tipping # 15 MALUCKYDAY for a place bet or inclusion in multiples at around 14 to 1

Should go well as down in weight 53.5kg as compared to other previous starts. Looking like a rainy afternoon as well and goes much better on a dead to heavy track. Drawn barrier 9 has Jimmy Cassidy on board and trainer is John Hawkes. Also out of Zabeel another really good stayer.

Good Luck to all


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## Knobby22 (4 November 2012)

I did OK last year with Red Cadeaux, but I think this is one of the most high quality fileds ever this year.
Lots of study. I wouldn't take less than than 7-1 for Red Cadeux or Americain.


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## So_Cynical (4 November 2012)

For what is worth i think its a very open race and that the handicapper and age might have ruled to top 2 out even though the top 2 have form and class...anyway ive settled on #8 Mount Athos, a European 6 Year old with 7 wins form 20 starts, the last win was a 2600 meter group 3 race in August...firm track will suit.


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## Knobby22 (4 November 2012)

Yes, that was Offsiders top pick and though i reckon it is a good chance, I think the odds are too low to back.

There are some other horses I think have almost equal chance. Will post tomorrow.


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## Miss Hale (4 November 2012)

I was on Red Cadeaux last year too!  Not sure yet what I will back this year yet.


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## Logique (5 November 2012)

Thanks everyone. Looking for a bit of value, Ive decided to go with a trifecta:

Americain
Malucky Day
My Quest For Peace


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## havaiana (5 November 2012)

I've done a fair bit of research on the horses, historically the internationals are underpriced and good value (this holds true in all countries)

Regarding the other races on cup day my tip for the meeting is back Craig Williams

Also, no one should be betting at the TAB, sign up to an online bookie, get deposit bonus and place your bets pre race at top flucuation, i can't stress enough how important this is. It's like placing a trade through a tier one broker versus placing a trade on a cfd (a betting exchange is also sufficient)

Other general advice, the favourite longshot bias is still alive and well in Oz so for the most part, stay away from the longshots, Also stay away from the backmarkers, particularly if there will not be alot of early pace in the race


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## Calliope (5 November 2012)

FRANCESCA CUMANI HAS HER EYE ON MY QUEST FOR PEACE TO WIN THE 2012 MELBOURNE CUP





Quinella this one with the other Cumani runner, MOUNT ATHOS.




They both have a touch of class


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## dutchie (5 November 2012)

LIGHTS OF HEAVEN is a winner


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## Knobby22 (5 November 2012)

My smokies are Fiorente and Bart's Sanaga which may surprise.
I also like Galieo's choice, Dunaden, Americain, Red Cadeaux and My Quest for a Piece (sic). 

Worried Mount Athos is priced too strong on the odds. Cumani looks like he has pulled out all stops this year to win, I notice he didn't even race Mount Athos in Australia in case the weight rose.


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## MrBurns (5 November 2012)

Every Mebourne Cup Winner Ever - 


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-11-05/infographic-every-melbourne-cup-winner-ever/4353842


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## Tink (5 November 2012)

Win and Place -

8. Mount Athos
14. Green Moon
17. My Quest for Peace
24. Kellini

Good luck all


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## Gringotts Bank (5 November 2012)

I've been getting these emails from a guy called Derren Brown.  I don't know who he is, but he's correctly predicted 9 winners in a row, ahead of time.  I'm going to bet everything I have, and everything I can borrow on number 4.  (wink wink)


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## Gringotts Bank (6 November 2012)

No Derren Brown fans??  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4

I'll go with *Duneden* and *My Quest for Peace*, each FTW.


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## Logique (6 November 2012)

Brown was on SBS last night GB. He explained that his system was really an elaborate pyramid scheme. He got huge numbers of people to vote variously on all the horses in the races. Losers were quietly refunded their outlay and departed.

 He retained and publicized the winners into the next round, until finally there remained one person who had won every time.  

He showed himself spinning a coin ten heads in a row, but later explained it took 9hrs of filming to achieve this.


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## pixel (6 November 2012)

Logique said:


> Appreciate if someone could tip the 2012 Cup winner for me please.




I'd rather buy a Lotto ticket for tonight's $100M Jackpot. The odds may be longer, but I know that half of every bet is supporting a "worthy cause."
As to the "sport" of horse racing: I'll only call it a sport when the jockeys run round the course, each carrying a horse on their back. : OK, some of the fillies make it a spectator sport, decked in (or out of) the latest fashion. But in that context, the horsing-around of the four-legged variety is just a distraction.


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## Miss Hale (6 November 2012)

I've gone with Red Cadeaux again and Galileo's Choice and, a couple of outsiders, Zabeelionaire and Fiorente (Gai Waterhouse has to win a Melbourne Cup soon surely!).

Good Luck everyone and enjoy your day


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## MrBurns (6 November 2012)

I find it strange that, Damien Oliver, the jockey on the favourite, Americain, has just confessed to placing a $10,000 bet on another horse in a race he was in ...........yet..................he's still allowed to ride the favourite in the Melbourne Cup...


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## jancha (6 November 2012)

pixel said:


> I'd rather buy a Lotto ticket for tonight's $100M Jackpot. The odds may be longer, but I know that half of every bet is supporting a "worthy cause."
> As to the "sport" of horse racing: I'll only call it a sport when the jockeys run round the course, each carrying a horse on their back. : OK, some of the fillies make it a spectator sport, decked in (or out of) the latest fashion. But in that context, the horsing-around of the four-legged variety is just a distraction.




Spoken as a true patriot.


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## Tink (6 November 2012)

Oh, and 10. Ethiopia with the Work Cup Sweep.
This is the only horse racing event I enjoy.


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## Tink (6 November 2012)

Wooooo


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## white_goodman (6 November 2012)

thanks for your donations Australian public, you just payed my xmas bonus


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## Julia (6 November 2012)

pixel said:


> As to the "sport" of horse racing: I'll only call it a sport when the jockeys run round the course, each carrying a horse on their back.  But in that context, the horsing-around of the four-legged variety is just a distraction.



I have mixed feelings about it.  Hate seeing the horses being whipped.
I suppose they're bred to race and enjoy doing it.  If they didn't, they'd just fail I suppose.
Would definitely like to see jumps racing banned.

The Melbourne Cup is the only race I ever watch.  When it's over I'm just thankful if no horse or person is hurt.


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## pixel (6 November 2012)

white_goodman said:


> thanks for your donations Australian public, you just payed my xmas bonus




Are you Irish then?

PS: Julia, of course I watch it as well - if only to know what my friends are talking about.
Why my very dim view of the betting? Because I see the misery it causes in families that can't afford the daily bread, but feel compelled to have a flutter with money they don't have. The race may stop the nation and inject Millions into the State's coffers. But too much of that cash is coming from the disadvantaged without a penny going back to them.
That's the difference between gambling in casinos, pokies, Flemington - and Lotto.


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## white_goodman (6 November 2012)

pixel said:


> Are you Irish then?




no, im epic


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## Tink (6 November 2012)

Yes agree Julia, I dont like jump racing. I think they should be banned as well.

!. Green Moon

2. Fiorente

3. Jakkelberry

Kellini just missed out, I nearly got 2.


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## white_goodman (6 November 2012)

Tink said:


> Yes agree Julia, I dont like jump racing. I think they should be banned as well..





just ban whatever you dont like? I dont like cigarettes, dont see me calling for their ban

the cost to owners, jockeys insurance, prize money etc etc wil dictate its viability going forward, no need for the ban hammer


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## Tink (6 November 2012)

Well thats my opinion, I think its cruel on the animal having to jump those hurdles, I cant watch it and refuse to watch it.


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## white_goodman (6 November 2012)

Tink said:


> Well thats my opinion, I think its cruel on the animal having to jump those hurdles, I cant watch it and refuse to watch it.





well dont then, simple, no need to call for bans on things you dont have much information or knowledge on..

how would you feel if AFL or something was banned because a bunch of inner city wineo's thought it was too rough and uncivilised?


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## MrBurns (6 November 2012)

Logique said:


> Appreciate if someone could tip the 2012 Cup winner for me please.




Green Moon


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## Logique (6 November 2012)

Overall, the bookies won this year. The first 4 on NSW TAB paid $1.4Mill. 

Roll on Oz Lotto tonight.


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## white_goodman (6 November 2012)

Logique said:


> Overall, the bookies won this year. The first 4 on NSW TAB paid $1.4Mill.
> 
> Roll on Oz Lotto tonight.




if they run a proper book they should win every race


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## bellenuit (6 November 2012)

The first seven horses across the line were bred in Ireland. 

http://www.news.com.au/news/green-moon-wins-melbourne-cup/story-fnehlez2-1226511560446


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## Miss Hale (6 November 2012)

Second again this year at long odds so I received a tidy payout


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## So_Cynical (6 November 2012)

In NSW the trifecta paid $51,171

An upset result for sure.


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## Sean K (6 November 2012)

My wife's favourite colour is green. so we're happy.

Not sure about the whipping issue. They must feel something from it, as we still hit them. It's assumed they will run faster if we cause them some pain. How much? Do they enjoy winning? The horses just look the same at the end, but a bit sweaty. Like a marathon runner. How much pain do they go through? I suppose they choose the pain though. Don't they?

A bit concerned with my bet through IAS though. On the iPhone app I got a 5:1 return for a place, but I think the TAB return was 7.5:1. HUH?


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## MrBurns (6 November 2012)

kennas said:


> My wife's favourite colour is green. so we're happy.
> 
> Not sure about the whipping issue. They must feel something from it, as we still hit them. It's assumed they will run faster if we cause them some pain. How much? Do they enjoy winning? The horses just look the same at the end, but a bit sweaty. Like a marathon runner. How much pain do they go through? I suppose they choose the pain though. Don't they?
> 
> A bit concerned with my bet through IAS though. On the iPhone app I got a 5:1 return for a place, but I think the TAB return was 7.5:1. HUH?




Those horses are the most valuable in the world they arent hurt, the whip just stings a little and is a signal for them to move it, only used in the straight.


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## Duckman#72 (6 November 2012)

Julia said:


> I have mixed feelings about it.  Hate seeing the horses being whipped.
> I suppose they're bred to race and enjoy doing it.  If they didn't, they'd just fail I suppose.
> Would definitely like to see jumps racing banned.
> 
> The Melbourne Cup is the only race I ever watch.  When it's over I'm just thankful if no horse or person is hurt.




I love horse racing, and it's been in the family, but I fully agree with you. Jumps racing should be banned. The VCR refuses to take the hard decisions. The Warrnambool Jumps carnival is considered a success if no horses are destroyed. 

As for whipping, Australia has some of the most lenient whipping guidelines in the world. It was only 12 months ago restrictions were officially introduced. Up until then, the jockey had to pummel the horse before they would be charged with "excessive whip use". Yes horses love to run, they are bred to run........but they don't enjoy being hit.

I've seen plenty of swollen welt marks on the tender flanks of expensive horses. It is designed to inflict pain.
Duckman


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## Julia (6 November 2012)

white_goodman said:


> just ban whatever you dont like? I dont like cigarettes, dont see me calling for their ban



That's just a silly analogy.  If human beings, who have total autonomy over their choices of behaviour, choose to smoke cigarettes, that's their decision.
The horses have no similar choice when they are forced into jumps racing.
It's yet another example of the exploitation of animals for the amusement of pathetic human beings.  Shameful.



> the cost to owners, jockeys insurance, prize money etc etc wil dictate its viability going forward, no need for the ban hammer



That is entirely missing the point.




kennas said:


> Not sure about the whipping issue. They must feel something from it, as we still hit them. It's assumed they will run faster if we cause them some pain. How much? Do they enjoy winning? The horses just look the same at the end, but a bit sweaty. Like a marathon runner. How much pain do they go through? I suppose they choose the pain though. Don't they?



How do they choose the pain?  It's perhaps like a dog that's repeatedly beaten.  It will do what is expected of it in order to avoid the pain.
(Not meaning to direct the above at you Kennas.  You seem to feel the same doubts as do I and others.)



Duckman#72 said:


> As for whipping, Australia has some of the most lenient whipping guidelines in the world. It was only 12 months ago restrictions were officially introduced. Up until then, the jockey had to pummel the horse before they would be charged with "excessive whip use". Yes horses love to run, they are bred to run........but they don't enjoy being hit.



I suppose only the most devoted masochist enjoys being hit.  Impossible to thus classify horses.



> I've seen plenty of swollen welt marks on the tender flanks of expensive horses. It is designed to inflict pain.
> Duckman



Just horrible.  All, once again, for the amusement of human beings who exploit animals just because they can and because people are in a position to dominate animals.


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## Tink (7 November 2012)

Well here is hoping, we are moving down the line of Black Caviar -- I heard that horse was never whipped and always won.


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## havaiana (7 November 2012)

white_goodman said:


> if they run a proper book they should win every race




I'm sure it's not as easy as it sounds, overall alot more fail than make it. Competition is pretty stiff nowaways with exchanges and online bookie competition. Fav/longshot bias means they will probably lose when big favourites get up, yesterday would have been a very good day for them


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## Gringotts Bank (7 November 2012)

I had a feeling that Green Moon would do something.  I put that bet on about 5 mins before they jumped.  That's the extent of my betting for this year.  


Logique, good episode of D. Brown next week.  Actually they're all good.


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## white_goodman (7 November 2012)

havaiana said:


> I'm sure it's not as easy as it sounds, overall alot more fail than make it. Competition is pretty stiff nowaways with exchanges and online bookie competition. Fav/longshot bias means they will probably lose when big favourites get up, yesterday would have been a very good day for them




its not, but theres enough room to lay off any bad exposure in any race now... there is an element of taking a position, but the big spring carnival cups days are the big earners for on course bookies, regardless of results


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